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Futures Flat Ahead Of Flood Of Economic Data
Futures Flat Ahead Of Flood Of Economic Data US equity futures pointed to modest gains, led by tech stocks - following Monday's 38bps drop which was the worst Monday since early December and the second worst Monday since last June - as investors looked ahead to economic data and commentary from Federal Reserve speakers in coming days for clues on the outlook for interest rates. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% while Nasdaq 100 contracts added 0.3%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index was also flat, hovering near its all-time high. Two-year notes led gains as Treasuries rose, retracing some of Monday’s drop. The dollar slipped, oil dipped and bitcoin soared above $57,000. It's a busy day for economic data, which includes January durable goods orders (8:30am), Case-Shiller home prices (9am), consumer confidence, Richmond Fed and Dallas Fed. In premarket trading, cryptocurrency-linked stocks rise after Bitcoin’s price reached the $57,000 level for the first time since late 2021 (Cleanspark (CLSK) +16%, Coinbase (COIN) +6, Marathon Digital (MARA) +12%). Hess shares dropped premarket after Chevron said its $53BN acquisition of Hess faces potential disruption as rivals ExxonMobil and CNOOC claim pre-emptive rights over Chevron's stake in a crucial Guyana oil project (the largest oil discovery in a decade). Discussions are ongoing, but failure to resolve this could jeopardise the Hess takeover, Chevron said. Macy’s shares were volatile after it said it plans to close 150 unproductive locations as the department-store chain seeks to fight off a pair of activist firms seeking to buy the company. Zoom shares jumped 13% in US premarket trading after the video-conferencing software company’s guidance for adjusted earnings per share was stronger than expected. Additionally, Zoom also said its board approved a buyback program. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Aaron’s slumps 25% after providing disappointing 2024 forecasts. Altice USA gains 4% after Bloomberg reported that Charter Communications is exploring a takeover of the cable provider. Cava rises 7% after the restaurant chain posted fourth-quarter sales that beat expectations as diners splurged on premium dishes. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) soars 18% after the telehealth group’s forecast for first-quarter revenue topped the average analyst estimate. Workday shares fell 7.2% in US premarket trading after the human resources software company issued full-year subscription revenue forecast that was weaker than expected at the midpoint. The company also reported fourth-quarter results that analysts said showed less upside than usual. Unity Software shares slid 17% in US premarket trading after the video-game software development company’s forecast for revenue fell short of expectations amid a portfolio review that includes exiting some businesses. Lowe’s said its sales will fall further this year as consumers continue to hold off from sprucing up their homes amid higher mortgage rates and a drop in new construction projects. Janux Therapeutics jumps 106% after the company reported updated clinical data. PubMatic rises 27% after the advertising technology company’s fourth-quarter earnings beat expectations, with analysts highlighting a boost from new products. TransMedics gains 21% after the transplant therapy biotechnology company reported fourth-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate. Readings on the US economy are in sharp focus this week, with the Fed’s favored inflation gauge due on Thursday grabbing the most attention. Markets have already dialed back expectations for early and rapid Fed easing after hotter-than-expected data on jobs and price gains, pushing out bets on a first cut to June or July. “We have always been in the camp that the Fed is unlikely to move as quickly as the market was pricing and data for the first couple of months will only confirm that the first cut will be pushed into the third quarter,” said Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. In response to some arguments that stocks are in another tech bubble, Citigroup strategists said they don’t regard the US equity market as being in a bubble like that of 1999-2000, and suggested the rally could spread to other sectors. Valuation multiples for stocks are well below 2000 levels and, while cash flow expectations around tech companies have increased, forecasts for other industry groups aren’t stretched. That supports the case for broader equity gains. “We argue that ‘bubble’ is the wrong term to describe the current market setup,” the Citigroup team led by Scott Chronert wrote. “Rather, the recent rally puts pressure on fundamentals to deliver.” Elsewhere, Bitcoin climbed, rising briefly beyond $57,000 for the first time since late 2021, supported by investor demand through exchange-traded funds as well as further purchases by MicroStrategy Inc. European stocks were little changed, with mining and autos & parts shares leading gains, while personal care and media stocks are the biggest laggards; drinkmakers’ stocks rose as earnings from Aperol-maker Davide Campari-Milano exceed analyst forecasts. The moves followed sharp drops over the past year for beverage manufacturers amid worries about destocking and consumers turning to cheaper alternatives. Campari gained as much as 7.5% while Remy Cointreau (+2.2%), Pernod Ricard (+1.8%), Diageo (+1.6%) also rise. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday: Bouygues rises as much as 5.3% after the French conglomerate reported full-year results, with Morgan Stanley saying that a beat on free cash flow was the main highlight GTT shares gain as much as 9%, to touch their highest since August 2022, after the French engineering company’s guidance for 2024 Ebitda beat analysts’ consensus at the mid-point, according to data tracked by Bloomberg Flutter shares gain as much as 5.7% in London as Barclays upgrades the stock to overweight from equal-weight, seeing earnings growth over several years as the gambling operator’s US market share strengthens Abrdn rose as much as 7.8% after the UK asset manager reported adjusted operating profit above estimates, with analysts also drawing attention to stable net interest margins SIG Group shares rise as much as 3.6%, the most since February 2023, after the Swiss carton-packaging maker’s cashflow turned positive thanks a strong 4Q, according to Vontobel Puma shares advance as much as 3.9% after the sportswear brand reported full-year results. The company also said it sees weaker demand for sneakers and sports gear persisting through the first half of the year before picking up amid major sporting events Eurofins Scientific shares fall as much as 12%, the most in a year. Morgan Stanley said cashflow was disappointing from the laboratory testing services company, citing the cost of higher start-up losses and more restructuring Straumann shares decline as much as 7.1% after the Swiss dental equipment company reported operating profit was much weaker due to restructuring and impairment Croda shares fall as much as 3.6% after the British specialty chemicals firm reported FY23 results. Citi analysts say though the figures mark the end of a difficult year Rovi declines as much as 9% after the Spanish pharmaceutical company said it expects revenue to decrease by a mid-single-digit percentage in 2024. It’s the steepest drop since May last year Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined in the absence of fresh catalysts to drive the regional benchmark’s longest stretch of weekly gains in more than a year, with shares in Japan and Hong Kong reversing earlier advances. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%, reversing a rise of as much as 0.3%, with losses in technology stocks weighing on the index. Japan’s benchmarks, reversed an early advance, while stocks also fell in Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. Mainland and Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares declined, extending Monday’s slide, as attention shifts to next week’s NPC meet. Hong Kong’s benchmark dropped ahead of the budget announcement on Wednesday. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with the mainland mildly positive after the PBoC injected liquidity and with China said to consider approving additional REITs to support consumption. ASX 200 was choppy as strength in the consumer sector was partially offset by weakness in miners. Nikkei 225 printed fresh record highs before reversing the advances as participants digested the latest CPI data. Japan’s two-year yield climbed to the highest since 2011 after stronger-than-expected inflation data boosted bets the central bank will end its negative-interest-rate policy in coming months. Traders increased the probability of Bank of Japan exiting its negative rate policy by April to about 82%, up from 78% on Monday, according to swaps data compiled by Bloomberg. The yen strengthened against the dollar. The inflation report “is adding to speculation that the BOJ will end negative-rate policy as early as March and is serving as a selling catalyst for bonds,” said Kazuya Fujiwara, a fixed-income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo. The data underscores persistent inflationary pressures, he said. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index drops as much as 0.2% before paring losses to 0.1% while the yen stood atop the G-10 FX leader board, rising 0.3% versus the greenback after Japanese CPI topped estimates and pushed two-year JGB yields to the highest since 2011. The greenback also lagged the Australian dollar, though outperformed others incuding Sweden’s krona. In rates, treasuries held small gains across the curve after being led higher by bunds and gilts after data showed inflation in UK stores slowed to the lowest level since March 2022. 10-year US TSY yields were around 4.26%, about ~2bps lower on the day, with bunds and gilts outperforming by 0.5bp and 2bp in the sector; gilts, richer by 3bp-4bp on the day, lead gains in core European rates as BOE rate cuts are more aggressively priced. Supply remains the main theme, with $42 billion 7-year note auction at 1pm and another heavy slate of new corporate bonds anticipated after $27 billion was priced Monday. The week's coupon issuance concludes with today's 7-year note auction, and follows small tails for 2- and 5-year notes Monday; the WI 7-year yield near 4.30% is about 19bp cheaper than January’s, which tailed by 0.3bp. The dollar IG credit issuance slate includes a handful of deals already; 18 names priced $27b across 37 tranches Monday on order books that were three times oversubscribed according to Bloomberg, spreads compressed nearly 25bps across execution and attrition rates climbed. Another busy session is is expected Tuesday, before critical inflation data later this week. In commodities, oil steadied after Monday’s gains as pockets of strength in physical markets supported wider sentiment; WTI trade near $77.60 while Brent was at $82.40. Iron ore gained after Monday’s hefty loss, as market watchers looked for signs China’s approaching construction season will bolster demand after costs of the raw material dropped. Spot gold is up 0.2%. Bitcoin surged more than 4%, hitting a fresh two-year high and rose above $57,000, extending on the sharp gains seen on Monday, with the latest ETF inflows confirming that retail interest continues to surge. Looking at today's calendar, US economic data includes January durably goods orders (8:30am), 4Q house price purchase index, December FHFA house price index and S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home prices (9am), February Richmond Fed manufacturing index, consumer confidence, and Richmond Fed business conditions (10am) and Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). Fed speakers scheduled include Barr at 9:05am. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 5,085.50 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 495.81 MXAP up 0.3% to 173.34 MXAPJ up 0.2% to 527.76 Nikkei little changed at 39,239.52 Topix up 0.2% to 2,678.46 Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 16,790.80 Shanghai Composite up 1.3% to 3,015.48 Sensex up 0.5% to 73,141.23 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 7,663.01 Kospi down 0.8% to 2,625.05 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.43% Euro little changed at $1.0854 Brent Futures little changed at $82.57/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $2,035.73 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.12% to 103.71 Top overnight news Japan’s Jan CPI overshoots the Street, with headline coming in at +2.2% (vs. the Street +1.9% and vs. +2.6% in Dec) while core rises 3.5% (vs. the Street +3.3% and vs. +3.7% in Dec). BBG Chinese regulators are taking measures to keep the renminbi’s dollar exchange rate stable as Beijing seeks to bolster confidence in the country’s currency and economy ahead of a key leadership summit. FT China’s state-backed funds have poured more than 410 billion yuan ($57 billion) into onshore shares this year in a bid to prop up the market. Further purchases are expected. BBG Samsonite is weighing its options following interest from suitors including buyout firms, people familiar said. Some PE firms are considering acquiring the company and relisting it in another market — such as the US — at a higher valuation. Shares jumped in Hong Kong. BBG President Emmanuel Macron of France on Monday said “nothing should be ruled out” after he was asked about the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine in support of the embattled nation’s war against Russia. NYT Iran reduced its stockpile of near-weapons-grade nuclear material even as it continued expanding its overall nuclear program, the United Nations’ atomic watchdog said Monday, marking a surprise step that could ease tensions with Washington. WSJ President Biden said Monday that fighting in Gaza could stop as early as this coming weekend, the most detailed timeline to date from the White House on a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza. WSJ Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey R. Schmid said the US central bank should be patient in cutting interest rates with inflation above its 2% target and the job market still strong. In his first major speech since taking the job six months ago, Schmid also said he’s in no hurry to stop the ongoing reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet. BBG Sixth Street wants to go big on beaten down real estate to capitalize as banks grapple with stress in their portfolios. “We don’t think this is systemic risk, but there are obviously large exposures, particularly in some of the small and regional-sized banks,” CEO Alan Waxman said. BBG Earnings Hess (HES), Chevron (CVX) - Chevron's USD 53bln acquisition of Hess faces potential disruption as rivals ExxonMobil (XOM) and CNOOC (883 HK) claim pre-emptive rights over Chevron's stake in a crucial Guyana oil project (the largest oil discovery in a decade). Discussions are ongoing, but failure to resolve this could jeopardise the Hess takeover, Chevron said. (Newswires) HES -2.9%, CVX -0.6% in pre-market trade Puma (PUM GY) - Q4 (EUR): Revenue 1.98bln (exp. 2.094bln). EBIT 94.4mln (exp. 100mln). Net 0.8mln (exp. 28mln). Adverse currencies lead to a negative impact on sales of more than EUR 400mln. Asia/Pacific sales increased by 2.8% Y/Y, supported by strong growth in Greater China and India. The rest of Asia was softer, impacted by consumer sentiment and warm weather conditions. Sales in the Americas region decreased by 2.4% Y/Y due to the devaluation of the Argentine peso. 2024 EBIT guidance 620-700mln (exp. 663mln). "Going into 2024, we see that the market environment remains challenging." (Puma) +0.5% in European trade Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW) Q4 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.28 (exp. 1.68), Revenue 18.602bln (exp. 18.45bln) choppy pre-market EU antitrust regulator says it will analyse Microsoft's (MSFT) AI partnership with Mistral AI. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded mixed after the lacklustre handover from the US as markets braced for looming risk events. ASX 200 was choppy as strength in the consumer sector was partially offset by weakness in miners. Nikkei 225 printed fresh record highs before reversing the advances as participants digested the latest CPI data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with the mainland mildly positive after the PBoC injected liquidity and with China said to consider approving additional REITs to support consumption. Top Asian News US intends to increase defence industrial cooperation with Japan, India, and other partners in the Indo-Pacific to build supply chain resilience in the face of threats like China, according to a Pentagon official cited by Nikkei. China's Commerce Minister Wang met with USTR Tai at the WTO conference in Abu Dhabi and expressed Beijing’s “solemn concerns” over US tariffs and Taiwan-related issues, according to SCMP. China's Commerce Minister Wang said China is highly concerned about the trade remedy investigation initiated by the European side on China's EVs and other products, while he expressed strong dissatisfaction with this investigation that lacks factual basis. China's Commerce Minister Wang said China hopes Australia will pay attention to and actively promote the resolution of specific problems encountered by Chinese enterprises in Australia, as well as actively support China's accession to CPTPP. ABC News reported that it understands China is on track to lift tariffs on Australian wine at the end of next month when a review into the wine duties concludes. Standard Chartered (2888 HK) suspended new subscriptions by clients in China under the QDII outbound investment programme citing "commercial reasons", according to Reuters. PBoC held a working meeting on Feb 26th; says they are to use all monetary tools in full and use them well. China says it will prevent fluctuations in the housing market, according to CCTV; says localities should promote balance between supply and demand in the real estate market. All cities should accurately study and judge housing demand and improve housing supply, cities should take into account local economic and social development alongside population changes. European bourses are modestly firmer having picked up a touch in limited newsflow after an uneventful open, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%. Breadth overall fairly narrow, though the likes of the DAX 40 +0.4% have begun to extend modestly higher. Sectors mixed with no clear theme or bias though Basic Resource names outperform while Morgan Stanley lifted Semiconductors to Overweight (prev. Neutral). Auto names, in Germany in particular, are modestly firmer after Monday's pressure. Stateside, futures remain near the unchanged mark but with a slight positive bias, ES +0.1%, in-fitting with initial action in European trade but yet to experience the modest uptick seen since in European peers. Newsflow thus far limited, updates around MSFT, HES, CVX among others. Top European News UK Chancellor Hunt is considering plans to lower national insurance instead of income tax and could also announce a duty on vapes, according to reporting by The Telegraph. FX The DXY fell below Monday's 103.71 trough to a 103.60 base amid JPY pressure post-Japanese CPI. However, USD/JPY failed to test 150.00 to the downside and has since risen a touch with the USD benefitting in-turn and towards the 103.81 peak. EUR holds near the 1.0850 mark in relatively tight parameters with specifics light and no follow through from German GfK. Cable is unchanged and within Monday's range, docket ahead for the UK is headlined by BoE's Ramsden. AUD outperforms as it resides near its 100-DMA and is yet to test the 200-DMA at 0.6555 and 0.6561 respectively, Kiwi ever so slightly softer vs the USD ahead of the RBNZ. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1057 vs exp. 7.1945 (prev. 7.1080). Chinese regulators are reportedly taking measures to keep the renminbi exchange rate stable as Beijing aims to bolster confidence in China's economy and currency ahead of the "Two Sessions" gathering set to begin March 4th, while measures include refraining from short-term interest rate cuts and keeping the CNY currency band against the dollar firm, according to FT. Fixed Income Session's focus has been supply. Little reaction to outings from the Netherlands, UK & Germany thus far though the overall hefty docket in addition to syndication details/announcements from Slovakia, France, Italy (Valore) & UK has kept EGBs near the unchanged mark. Bunds held a tick above Monday's Monday's 132.33 base and by extension remain above Friday's 132.05 low; BTPs similarly contained but we await further 7yr Valore (Retail) updates after Monday's first day of subscription saw a record EUR 6.4bln of demand. Gilts not 'stuck; to unchanged levels in the same way as BTPs as its own supply was via a I/L; most recently, no reaction to the DMO announcing it will be launching a new 30yr syndication from 11th March (week after the March budget). USTs a touch firmer but someway shy of Monday's 110-04 peak after lacklustre 2yr & 5yr sales, 7yr due later. Yields currently under modest pressure with no overt flattening/steepening bias. Commodities Crude is near unchanged but holding on to most of the prior day's gains amid the recent Dollar softness and ongoing geopolitics, no reaction to the most recent updates which poured some cold water on Biden's relative optimism overnight. Nat gas under pressure but within familiar ranges for Dutch TTF while its US peer is essentially flat intraday. Precious metals benefit from the softer USD and yield environment, but slipped from best as the DXY lifted from its low; base peers post modest gains with potential tailwinds from reports out of China around measures to support consumption. Russia is to ban gasoline exports for six months with the ban to be introduced from March 1st, according to Tass. Geopolitics: Middle East Hamas received a draft Paris proposal which allows for a 40-day initial halt in all military operations and for the gradual return of displaced civilians to North Gaza, except men of military age, while it proposes all Israeli women, children under 19, elderly, and sick hostages would be released in exchange for a number of Palestinian prisoners. Furthermore, Palestinian prisoners would be exchanged for the release of Israeli hostages at a ratio of 10 to 1, according to a senior source cited by Reuters. US President Biden said he hopes a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas can take effect by next Monday and national security advisers told him negotiators are "close", according to AP. US President Biden said Israel has agreed not to engage in "activities" during Ramadan and has committed to enable an evacuation of significant portions of Rafah "before they go and take out remainder of Hamas", according to NBC interview US Central Command said it destroyed three unmanned surface vessels, two mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, and a one-way attack unmanned aerial vehicle in self-defence, according to Reuters. Hamas official says there are still "big gaps" that need to be bridged before a ceasefire. Thereafter, Israeli political sources report that they do not know what the basis of US President Biden's optimism regarding the imminent ceasefire is, via AJA Breaking and there is no breakthrough to announce on Gaza ceasefire, according to Qatar's Foreign Minister; remain upbeat and optimistic on mediation talks; no agreement between Israel and Hamas on any of the main issues linked to a ceasefire. Geopolitics: Other Czech PM Fiala said about 15 countries have shown interest in the Ukraine ammunition initiative and Dutch PM Rutte noted that several other countries will also contribute to the Czech-proposed ammunition initiative, according to Reuters. French President Macron said they think a Russian defeat is indispensable for Europe's security and they will be exploring ways to mobilise third countries to buy ammunition, while he added they will join the ammunition initiative. Macron also said European countries will increase sanctions on countries helping Russia to bypass European sanctions and noted that he didn't say France was not in favour of sending troops to Ukraine, while he stands by strategic ambiguity on the issue of sending troops to Ukraine and cannot rule it out. Russia's Kremlin, on French President Macron not ruling out sending European troops to Ukraine, says sending NATO member contingent to Ukraine is a very important new element; if this happens, talks would have to shift to the inevitability of conflict with NATO. Russian Security Council Secretary Patrushev met with Cuba's Raul Castro to discuss security cooperation, according to Ifax. US Event Calendar 08:30: Jan. Durable Goods Orders, est. -5.0%, prior 0% Jan. Durables-Less Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5% Jan. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 0% Jan. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2% 09:00: Dec. S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY, prior 5.14% Dec. S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. 0.20%, prior 0.15% Dec. S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 6.00%, prior 5.40% Dec. FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3% 4Q House Price Purchase Index QoQ, prior 2.1% 10:00: Feb. Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 115.0, prior 114.8 Feb. Conf. Board Expectations, prior 83.8 Feb. Conf. Board Present Situation, prior 161.3 10:00: Feb. Richmond Fed Index, est. -9, prior -15 10:30: Feb. Dallas Fed Services Activity, prior -9.3 Central Bank speakers 09:05: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Counterparty Credit Risk DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Its been a pretty quiet start to the week in equities but with the S&P 500 (-0.38%) seeing a late minor sell-off and with Chinese equities rising this morning on speculation that the authorities bought a notable amount of domestic shares in recent weeks. Yields rising across the board has been the main source of interest though. In the process the amount of cuts priced in by the Fed’s December meeting is now the lowest since mid-November, at 79bps, around half the amount expected at the start of the year. Meanwhile, yields on 2yr Treasuries (+2.8bps) closed at 4.72%, their highest level since the Fed’s December meeting, and overnight 2yr Japanese yields have edged up to their highest since 2011 after Japanese inflation beat expectations. It was a similar story earlier in Europe yesterday with yields then rising steadily all day, even before ECB President Lagarde comments to the European Parliament just before the European equity close. These remarks showed ongoing patience, suggesting that the ECB “needs to be confident that [the current disinflationary process] will lead us sustainably to our 2% target”. Overall her comments were not that different to the last ECB statement and the yield rise was mostly done for the day before she spoke. By the close 10yr bunds (+7.7bps), OATs (+8.3bps) and BTPs (+9.1bps) all posted significant yield increases, effectively reversing Friday’s rally (-7.8bps for 10yr bunds). And at the front end of the curve, the 2yr German yield (+6.9bps) closed at 2.92%, its highest level since November. The likelihood of an ECB cut by the April meeting was down 6pp to 27%, which is the lowest since late September. Over in the US, the 10yr yield ended the day up +3.1bps at 4.28%, whilst the 2yr yield ended the day up +2.8bps at 4.72%, its highest level so far this year. Bonds reversed some of their decline late in the session, perhaps as equities dipped, with the 10yr yield having been more than 5bps higher on the day shortly after 2yr and 5yr Treasury auctions, which saw decent investor demand but with bonds being issued a touch above the pre-sale yields. The day’s yield rises occurred alongside some decent second-order data releases, with the UK CBI’s retail sales volume survey at a 10-month high of -7 (vs. -31 expected and up from a 3-year low of -50 in January). Later the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index was up to -11.3 in February (vs. -15.0 exp.). US new home sales came in at an annualised pace of 661k in January, below the 684k expected but their highest level in three months as December was revised down from 664k to 651k. It's an interesting week for equities as the recent run is starting to get into once in a couple of generation territory. The S&P 500 has now posted 15 weekly gains in the last 17 for the first time since 1989. Moreover, if we get another positive week this week, then it would be 16 out of 18 weeks for the first time since 1971, and it would also be a joint record since the index’s formation. So even though there’s been lots of positive catalysts, from lower inflation to excitement about AI, it’s actually very unusual to see the sort of sustained rally that’s occurred over the last few months. For more info, Henry put out some charts on the current rally in his Mapping Markets publication yesterday (link here). As we started a new week equities struggled to maintain their spectacular recent momentum, with the S&P 500 -0.38% lower on Monday. The NASDAQ declined a marginal -0.13%, while the Magnificent 7 were down -0.39%, dragged lower by a -4.44% decline for Alphabet amid concerns over recent missteps with its AI model. Small-cap stocks were the strongest performers, with the Russell 2000 up +0.61%. Over in Europe the picture was more negative though, with the STOXX 600 down -0.37% as it fell back from its all-time high on Friday. Even so, it wasn’t all bad news there, as the DAX (+0.02%) eked out a new record, and Euro HY spreads reaching their tightest level in over two years. In Asia the KOSPI (-0.42%), Hang Seng (-0.36%) and Nikkei (-0.12%) are all slightly lower. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are bucking the trend with the CSI (+0.35%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.51%) higher after reports on Bloomberg of state buying in recent weeks. US stock futures are slightly lower as I type. Coming back to Japan, inflation slowed less than expected in January, rising +2.2% y/y (vs. +1.9% expected) even if down from the previous month’s +2.6%. The +2.0% increase in core consumer prices was slower than the 2.3% increase in December and a tenth above expectations. Core-core was two-tenths above expectations at 3.5% from 3.7% last month. As mentioned at the top, yields on 2yr JGBs Japanese (+1.0bps) have hit their highest level since 2011, trading at 0.165% as we go to print. As a result, The likelihood of BOJ exiting its negative rate policy by April has risen to about 81%, up from yesterday’s 78%. To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for February, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for February, preliminary durable goods orders for January, and the FHFA house price index for December. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, there’s the M3 money supply for January. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr, the ECB’s Elderson, and BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden. Lastly in US politics, there are Republican and Democratic primaries taking place in Michigan. Tyler Durden Tue, 02/27/2024 - 08:19.....»»
Stocks Hit All Time High On "New Era In Productivity And Profitability"... Except, We"ve All Seen This Before
Stocks Hit All Time High On "New Era In Productivity And Profitability"... Except, We've All Seen This Before By Benjamin Picton of Rabobank Authentic Foolishness? Another day, another record for the S&P500. This time the index closed above 5000 for the first time ever and, once again, the gains were mostly driven by the Magnificent Seven tech names. Those seven stocks posted a gain of ~1.7%, while the S&P500 ex Magnificent Seven eked out a more modest 0.25%. The rapid gains since late October last year are very much predicated on the theme of Artificial Intelligence (AI) heralding a new era of productivity and profitability, helped along by lower discount rates as bond yields fell and markets priced in an aggressive easing cycle from major central banks. Except, we’ve been here before. New Era thinking is certainly not new, and eye-watering valuations on stocks with a compelling narrative behind them is a tale as old as time. There are loads of examples, and many of them are recent enough that we should know better. For most of us, the Dotcom boom happened during our lifetimes. Before that was the Nifty Fifty, and the Roaring Twenties before that, and the Railway Mania, and the South Sea Bubble, and John Law’s Folly, and TulipMania and so on and so forth all the way back to the neolithic. So, is Artificial Intelligence really a game-changer, or is it another case of ‘Authentic Foolishness’? Whatever the case, the intellectual basis for the rally grows thinner by the day. The Wall Street Journal desperately asks the question ‘Stocks are at Records, But Are They Expensive?’ (spoiler: yes). We now enter the phase of New Era thinking where P/E ratios, the CAPE ratio or the Buffett Indicator are pushed to the side while alternative valuation metrics (rate of patent filings, R&D spend etc) are proffered to justify soaring valuations. It certainly feels reminiscent of measuring the number of ‘eyeballs’ Pets.com got during the Dotcom years. So, valuations grow more stretched, expected future returns fall as prices rise, and even the easy-money tailwind from falling bond yields appears to have hit a snag as a sustained break below 4% for the 10-year continues to elude. Indeed, US 10s saw yields pump 15 basis points higher last week as markets reacted to the strong jobs report from the previous Friday, hawkish Fedspeak, firmer jobless claims figures and a revision to the last 5 years’ worth of reported CPI that saw 3 and 6 month annualized inflation creeping higher. In light of the arrayed headwinds, it’s hard not to wonder how much the huge growth in passive indexing is responsible for “feeding the beast”, or is it just a case of markets observing Chuck Prince’s infamous dictum that “as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance”? Given the record close for long duration equities, those upward revisions in CPI don’t seem to have scared the horses too much. The rationale being that the revisions were reasonably small and that the Fed targets PCE, not CPI. Nevertheless, market pricing on the quantum of Fed rate cuts in 2024 has shifted from 7x to just over 4x in a few short weeks, and CPI is a measure of inflation that is preferred in almost every other developed economy, so it’s hardly irrelevant to conversations of policy. The Wisdom of King Solomon says that “hope deferred makes the heart sick”, but Solomon was a hard money kind of guy, so maybe he didn’t have the effect of later rate cuts on equity valuations top of mind at the time. Speaking of hope deferred, last week saw an interesting move in the short end of the Aussie and Kiwi rate curves. Antipodean traders wound back bets on monetary easing after New Zealand labor market figures for Q4 showed the unemployment rate rising to just 4% (instead of the expected 4.3%) and one of the local major banks broke ranks to forecast two more rate rises from the RBNZ, with the first to arrive next week. RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway sounded hawkish in his speech of the week before, and the new Government in New Zealand has recently trimmed the central bank’s mandate to give it a singular focus on returning inflation to 1-3% (currently 4.7%). Adding to the tone, RBNZ Deputy Governor Hawkesby today told a Parliamentary Committee that the economy “can cope with high interest rates”. Are markets being softened up for another move higher? The RBA also tilted more hawkish at their policy meeting last week by suggesting that further rate hikes “cannot be ruled out”. Governor Michele Bullock went further in her press conference by telling assembled journalists that she sees the risk of the next move in the policy rate being a hike (as opposed to a cut) as “finely balanced”. We don’t think the RBA is likely to deliver on threats of further tightening, but the balance of risks has certainly shifted. More of our thoughts on that score here. While antipodean central banks beef up their tightening bias, Brent crude is again trading above $80/bbl as ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas appear to be going nowhere. Our analysts have a Q1 price target of $80/bbl on Brent, but see potential for a shift higher in H2 as the Fed begins to ease and demand catches up to supply. Of course, there is always the potential for the situation in the Middle East to get worse, and potentially disrupt energy flows through the Hormuz Strait, a scenario that our analysts suggest could see $150/bbl oil if it were to occur. We’ve not yet mentioned the Super Bowl, or the looming end of the BTFP program and what that might mean for commercial real estate. Our Senior US Strategist Philip Marey has written an excellent note on the latter topic that you can read here. In the meantime, I’ll close by paraphrasing Lord King’s observation that the structure of our financial system encourages radical disequilibria that finds expression in soaring debt levels, soaring asset valuations and downward sloping yield curves. Riding the asset price wave makes complete sense while the disequilibria holds, but dislocations in global trade, threats of inflation resurgence and popular discontent heighten the risk that this paradigm is not a new long-term steady state. To suggest that this really is a New Era of higher valuations, and that “this time it really is different” might be the height of Authentic Foolishness. Tyler Durden Mon, 02/12/2024 - 14:20.....»»
Inside the company that has discovered the ultimate cash cow: teenage athletes
Michael Schwimer calls his company "Shark Tank for athletes." Critics call it indentured servitude. "I'm a believer in capitalism," says Michael Schwimer, who founded Big League Advantage to cash in on the future earnings of teenage athletes. Simon Bruty/Sports Illustrated via Getty ImagesThe minor-league pitcher sits on the couch next to his wife. They're both in their early 20s, and they both look tense. They're on what could turn out to be the biggest — and most lucrative — Zoom call of their lives.The couple is joined on the call by their financial advisor and the husband's agent. For the next 45 minutes, they all listen, transfixed, as Michael Schwimer holds court from his home office in Maryland. A former pitcher with the Philadelphia Phillies (3 wins, 2 losses, 4.62 ERA), Schwimer is a 6-foot-8 Grecian bust of a man with a mop of curls. He begins his PowerPoint with an apology — he talks too much. From there, he tells the young pitcher about his life in the game, about the way players struggle financially — he once watched a teammate fish through a dumpster for food — and about the superstars he met who earned more millions than they could spend.Then Schwimer, who suddenly found his baseball career derailed by an injury, hit on an idea. What if athletes could sell a percentage of their future earnings to investors, the same way tech entrepreneurs offer a stake in their promising new ideas in return for venture capital? What is a minor-league pitcher, after all, if not a one-man startup aiming to break into the big leagues?So in 2016, Schwimer started Big League Advantage, a sort of hedge fund that invests in the future of minor-league baseball players. Following a landmark Supreme Court decision in 2021 that allowed student athletes to be paid, BLA has since expanded to invest in college football players, basketball players, hockey players, and coaches. (Schwimer explains that BLA also hopes to invest in musicians. "We haven't signed any yet, but anybody who wants a deal with us, we want to call us.") Using a proprietary algorithm monitored by some 30 analysts, the firm models a player's career earnings to decide how much to invest in them. "We look at the game very, very differently than everyone else," Schwimer tells the pitcher. "We probably spend more money on our analytics team than multiple teams combined."So far, Schwimer says, BLA has invested in the future earnings of nearly 600 players. The athlete — often a teenager — gets an up-front payment in return for up to 15% of their professional sports earnings over the next 25 years. Schwimer says the payments start around $100,000 and sometimes range into the millions. One of the fund's first deals was with the hot-shot shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., an 18-year-old who went on to sign a 14-year deal with the San Diego Padres for $340 million. If BLA secured only 8% of his earnings, Tatis alone would pay out $27.2 million — more than the company raised in its initial round of funding.Now, 20 minutes into the Zoom call, Schwimer arrives at what the pitcher and his wife have been waiting for: an offer. BLA, he announces, will pay the pitcher $12,000 for each percent of his future earnings, up to $180,000. That's a nice chunk of change for a young couple. But if he winds up making it big, the pitcher could be selling tens of millions in earnings to BLA for pennies on the dollar."Assume you're gonna make it," Schwimer urges the player. "Assume you're gonna be great. We've only had two players regret it later. If you're not gonna be happy, please don't do this."At the end of the call, the pitcher — who agreed to let me join on the condition he remain anonymous — asks Schwimer what will happen if he says no now. Is there a chance there will be a higher offer next year if he performs well on the field?Schwimer has anticipated the question. Ninety-two percent of the time, he tells the pitcher, the offer will wind up being lower. And 80 percent of the time, there will be no offer at all. The message is clear: If the couple wants the $180,000, it's now or never.Schwimer is far from alone in treating human beings as growth investments. X10 Capital, run by one of the original general partners at Benchmark Capital, offers similar deals to athletes. Finlete is launching a fund that allows fans to buy shares in a prospect's future earnings. Spotter and Jellysmack are paying influencers for a share of their YouTube revenue, and private firms and colleges are paying undergraduate tuition for students in return for a cut of their salaries once they enter the workforce. In perhaps the most extreme example, the brothers and serial tech entrepreneurs Daniil and David Liberman are selling shares of their own future earnings and aiming to list themselves on the stock market.Such investment schemes have drawn sharp criticism. "Big League Advance Is a Major League Scam," reads a typical headline. Sports agents, players unions, and lawmakers have compared BLA's business model to predatory loans or even indentured servitude. However you slice it, the hedge-fund approach to professional sports means that more of the riches will flow to wealthy investors and less to the athletes whose talent and effort actually generate the profits. That's because BLA isn't like an agent, who takes a cut of anything they manage to negotiate for a player. If you make it big, it's more like a payday loan on steroids — it gives you cash when you're strapped but takes a huge bite out of your income for the rest of your career."Until a couple of years ago, minor-league baseball players were among the lowest-paid employees in the entire country," says Garrett Broshuis, a minor leaguer turned lawyer who recently won a major class-action lawsuit for players over wage and overtime violations. "When you're that desperate, you're willing to take more risks. We're talking about human beings here, not startups." However you slice it, the hedge-fund approach to professional sports means more of the riches will flow to wealthy investors and less to the athletes whose talent actually generates the profits. A lifelong instigator, Schwimer revels in the negativity. He frames his business as somewhere between a social safety net and trickle-down economics. "We are 'Shark Tank,'" he tells me, "but for athletes and coaches." To him, the players who make it and owe BLA its cut are like any successful founder who owes a venture-capital firm its cut; those who don't are lucky enough to grab a little financial security in one of the world's toughest and most inequitable job markets. And though he has raised nearly $250 million in funding to invest in promising young athletes, he sees himself as a misunderstood underdog fighting on behalf of other underdogs. "I didn't start this company for agents," he says. "I didn't start this company for journalists. I started this company by players, for players."Last November, I spent a day with Schwimer in Philadelphia, where he was speaking to business-school students and alumni at the Wharton Sports Business Summit. Over breakfast, he tells me he still remembers the moment he knew he'd never be an MLB star.In 2008, after four years at the University of Virginia, he was drafted in the 14th round. When Schwimer arrived at his first minor-league workout, he watched pitcher after pitcher throw fastballs that whizzed and breaking balls that snapped in ways his never had. That day, he called his dad, a lawyer."I'm in trouble here," Schwimer told him. "I got no shot."His dad was unperturbed. "We got to figure out a way to be different," he said.So Schwimer started thinking analytically. He'd spent a summer interning at the hedge fund P.A.W. Partners, where he'd worked with their trading algorithms. To better understand the tendencies of the hitters he'd be facing, he built a rudimentary model. The data, he says, revealed that hitters are shockingly predictable creatures.Schwimer had four subpar pitches. But informed by his DIY pitch-selection algorithm, he managed to confuse batters enough to move up through the Phillies organization. He claims he got the nickname Houdini because no one could understand how he was sneaking his pitches by all these batters.Schwimer's teammates dubbed his penchant for wild theories and seeking creative edges "Schwimosophy."Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesThe story is vintage Schwimer — a slightly self-promotional tale that looks shaky on closer inspection. When I asked Erik Kratz, who was Schwimer's catcher in AAA, about the Houdini moniker, he responded with a laugh. "Is that a self-proclaimed nickname?" he said. "You better go back to him and see if he's talking about himself in the third person."Schwimer insisted the story was true — mostly. "People would say all the time: 'You're like fucking Houdini. How the fuck are you getting outs?'" he clarified when I went back to him. "But, yeah, I guess it probably was a little aggressive to say it was my nickname."Kratz says Schwimer developed a contentious reputation on his team for "questioning things" and seeking creative edges. Once, he annoyed every hitter in the dugout when he shared his idea to train one of them to foul off a dozen pitches per at bat, to tire out the opposing pitcher. "We were just like, 'Schwim, are you kidding me? You're completely demeaning what we do every single day,'" Kratz recalls. Kratz tells me they dubbed Schwimer's wild theories Schwimosophy.When Schwimer was drafted, his friends from home thought he was rich. "I signed for 3.2," he'd tell them, pausing for dramatic effect. "Thousand. After tax." He saw the precarious financial conditions that up-and-coming players face firsthand. When one top prospect in the Arizona Fall League told him that the stress of supporting his wife and baby was hurting his play, Schwimer says he floated what would later become the model for BLA. What if you could sell a share of your future earnings, he asked, for $10,000? "I'd give up 50% for 10 grand!" the guy joked.In 2011, when Schwimer got the call to join the Phillies, "it was the Motel 6 to the Ritz Carlton, overnight," he says. In an anecdote he often deploys in his sales pitches, he recounts hanging out with the All-Star starter Cole Hamels. "What does it mean to have $120 million?" he asked the pitcher. "It's great," Hamels told him. "I have the freedom to do anything I want in the offseason, but it's incrementally useless. If I had made $110 million, there'd be zero difference in my life." (Hamels declined to comment for this story.)The exchange, as Schwimer tells it, got him thinking. Soon after, he tore his labrum and faced a year of rehab. He fell into a depression, spending his days on the couch reading "Game of Thrones." Finally, prodded by his wife, he started tinkering with his hitters algorithm, transforming it into a tool to rank the career prospects of every minor-league player. In a "Moneyball" moment, he discovered that his model didn't jibe with the MLB's official rankings. Today, he says, more than 80% of the players BLA has invested in are outside the league's top 300 prospects. I ask if signing lower-level candidates is a conscious choice to maximize value. "No, we just think the rankings are terrible," he says.Fernando Tatis Jr. signed with BLA when he was 18.Sean M. Haffey/Getty ImagesDuring his two years in the MLB, Schwimer had accumulated wealthy contacts. "Once you get to the major leagues," he says, "billionaires all of a sudden wanna hang out with you and play some golf." The guys he met on the links gave him the capital for his first fund. "These are some of the biggest, heaviest hitters in the United States," Schwimer told the husband and wife on the Zoom call. "We have over 200 of them with a combined net worth over $100 billion."Members of BLA's board have included Marvin Bush, the brother of President George W. Bush, and Paul DePodesta, the Cleveland Browns executive who features heavily in "Moneyball." One of the billionaire investors who helped bankroll BLA's first fund was Bill Miller, who was famously early and bullish on Amazon. The rate of return Schwimer promised was astronomical. "It's gonna be pretty hard not to make money on it," Miller told HBO's "Real Sports." The data that Michael showed us was at least 30% a year for 20 years or so."The beauty of the model, from an investor's perspective, is the way it places relatively small bets that offer the prospect of huge outcomes. "We can only lose the money we give," Schwimer tells me, "and we can make a 50 times return." As in venture capital, a single unicorn can cover the cost of many, many bad bets. The key then is to identify promising players and correctly price their future earnings. And with baseball salaries soaring, betting long on sports contracts has an obvious appeal. In 1999, baseball's top-paid player brought home just under $12 million. Today, the Dodgers will pay Shohei Ohtani $70 million a year for the next decade. Even if 70 to 80 percent of BLA's investments never bear fruit, as Schwimer estimates, owning 15% of a star player's future earnings is like holding a share in something that — if the last half century is any guide — will only go up, and up, and up.As we walk from the diner to Penn's campus, Schwimer tells me that there's no difference between a startup founder taking an investment in exchange for equity and a young athlete taking an investment from him. He mentions that Jeff Bezos gave up 20% of Amazon for $1 million back in 1995, and today, post-divorce, Bezos owns only 10% of his company. He tells me he controls only 52% of BLA."Jeff Bezos gave 80%!" he says. "I gave up 48%! Was I taken advantage of? Was Jeff Bezos taken advantage of? Would anyone possibly say that? It's crazy to me. And nobody to this day has ever shown me any possible way as to why it's different."Part of the issue, I explain, is that the public has always balked at businessmen profiting off an athlete's excellence. Agents and owners are not exactly beloved. Schwimer dismisses such concerns as reflexively anti-business. "If we're a company that makes $2 billion, we are fucking over athletes," he says. "If we're a company that loses all our money, we do great for athletes. Well, that's bullshit. That's like if you invest in the stock market and you lose, you're great for the economy. But if you win, you're taking advantage of everybody. It's insane." "Athletes are thought of as dumb," Schwimer says. "It's an ism. Not racism; it's like intelligent-ism." I admit to Schwimer that I'd been feeling a certain queasiness about his company that I'd been trying to unpack. The fact that he was often investing in teenagers, seemingly in times of need, was something I couldn't square morally. People have long circled young stars with dubious or exploitative offers, financial or otherwise, I point out."Athletes are thought of as dumb," he responds. "Oh, God, it just kills me. Like, it's an ism. Not racism; it's like intelligent-ism. Do you know how hard it was for me to start this thing? I'm going in with 10 legs down. I'm a former baseball player. They all assume I'm a moron. Like, it's hard."Schwimer is protective of BLA's algorithm, which he believes provides him with a competitive edge. He would only share certain small differentiators, like the way the model puts more weight on how a minor-league hitter performs against an elite pitcher than how he performs against guys who will never make it to the show. Steven Duncker, a former Goldman Sachs partner who sits on BLA's board, admits he doesn't fully understand how the model works, but nevertheless believes they're onto something game-changing. "This is 'Moneyball'-plus," he tells me. "People say, 'You know the advantage is going to go away?' I'm shocked it hasn't. But it really hasn't."People say rookie shortstop Elly De La Cruz is guaranteed to make $500 million. "He might," Schwimer says. "He also might not make $2 million. He could get hit by a bus."Dylan Buell/Getty ImagesThere are, of course, some obvious hazards to betting on a person instead of a company. Tatis, the shortstop whom BLA is banking on, was suspended in 2022 for 80 games without pay after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. Two more offenses would result in a lifetime ban. "Three of our players under the age of 25 have died," says Schwimer. "But now, at least, their families have the money." People tell Schwimer that Elly De La Cruz, the rookie shortstop phenom who signed with BLA while in the minors, is guaranteed to make $500 million. "He might," Schwimer says. "He also might not make $2 million. He could get hit by a bus."But for all his talk about how athletes are derided as unintelligent, there is one type of player whose thought process Schwimer questions: those who choose not to sign with BLA. Schwimer claims he now has enough data to prove that if two players are ranked equally by the algorithm, and one takes money from the BLA and one does not, the player who takes the money is statistically more likely to make it to the majors.I'm puzzled. Why would that be?"It's self-selection," Schwimer tells me. "The ones that do our deals really care about making it and will do whatever it takes to make it. The players that don't do it? They're probably less intelligent."Schwimer says that no player has ever signed with BLA because they were desperate for the money. "No one's forcing anybody to do anything," he tells me. "No one's doing this out of need." He says signees often use the payments to purchase everything from personal training or private chefs to a new mattress. "Our models are blind to your background," he says.But others dispute that assessment. The primary targets of BLA are "indigent and talented players from Latin America," the baseball superagent Scott Boras told reporters. "Few if any top American talents who received large signing bonuses would ever consider the usurious terms. The idea of giving millions in lump sums to players is the justification of candy used to attract and compel players to give up huge percentages of their careers. That solely benefits BLA."In response to Boras's quote, Schwimer wrote back a 700-word email that took it on with seven bullet-pointed objections, including: "4. He uses the term 'usurious' which is correlated to loans. Words have actual definitions. We do not give loans to players (no one thinks this)." The email ended: "Again, there are no two sides to BLA. Period."In 2021, HBO's "Real Sports" found that half of BLA's investments were in players from Latin America. Yermín Mercedes, a prospect highlighted in the segment, said he took $165,000 from BLA for 15% of his future earnings because his family in the Dominican Republic was relying on him for financial support. "I have a big family," he said at the time. "They need me all the time because right now I'm the head of my family. I just want to do the best I can do for them."Schwimer says he doesn't keep track of players' countries of origin, so he couldn't offer an up-to-date figure on who it's cutting deals with. "We have signed over 100 American players," he insists, "many of which have received signing bonuses in the millions of dollars." But that would mean, by Schwimer's own calculation, that the vast majority of the nearly 600 players signed by BLA are not American.In 2018, Francisco Mejía, a Cleveland Indians prospect who accepted $360,000 from BLA for 10% of his future earnings, sued the fund for "unconscionable conduct." In the complaint, he claimed that his mother was sick when BLA approached him and that the fund had him sign a draft of the contract in an airport without an interpreter present. BLA's response was to countersue Mejia, who wound up dropping his lawsuit and issuing a public apology. "To be clear," he said, "I do not believe Big League Advance has ever deceived me."Gervon Dexter is suing BLA for signing him after his sophomore year in college. He now owes the fund more than $1 million of his $6.72 million contract with the Chicago Bears. Icon SportswireBLA has more recently come under fire for cutting deals with athletes while they're still in school. In 2022, the defensive lineman Gervon Dexter signed over 15% of his pretax future earnings for $436,485 after his sophomore year at the University of Florida. A year later, Dexter signed a four-year contract for $6.72 million with the Chicago Bears — more than $1 million of which he would have to hand over to BLA. Last September, Dexter sued BLA, arguing that Florida law allows deals with athletes only while they're enrolled in college, not after, and therefore his contract is null and void. An initial hearing will be held in March.Schwimer, for his part, maintains that he has always followed the law. He tells me he tends to believe he was sued by Dexter and Mejía because advisors told them BLA would give them a settlement to avoid the expense and the reputational risk of going to court. "But we can't settle," Schwimer says. "If we settle one, the whole company's over."Before his Wharton panel begins, Schwimer finds me in the atrium of Huntsman Hall. He's been thinking about why all the media coverage of BLA has been so negative. "It always starts with a writer calling me and you can tell wanting to kill me," he says. "And then, after an hour, they're like, 'Actually, what you do is amazing. I can't write anything.'" Their publications, he suggests, refuse to run the stories because they don't want to piss off powerful sports agents.I tell him, as someone who has written many sports stories, that his theory is hard to square with my experience. But Schwimer continues with his Scwimosohpy. Sure, the lawsuits and the home-run investments like Tatis are newsworthy, he argues. But why not write about all the guys who flamed out and got to keep their payments? "I've done so many interviews just like this one where you go back to your editor and he'll be like, 'Nah, it's not a story because no one gives a crap about the people that don't make it,'" Schwimer says. "I know what it's like when the world leaves you for dead at 25, 26 years old. It's brutal. And nobody cares. The media doesn't care." He pauses. "I care." Schwimer's reasoning leads to thornier questions. Why is the system built in such a way that young strivers are so desperate for quick cash? And why is an upstart hedge fund the one to fix it? Throughout our many conversations, Schwimer is rarely combative; his presentation is that of an energetic star of a high-school debate team. He answers many of my questions with questions of his own. He thinks the moral quandary of what he's doing is a fallacy that can be disproven via hypotheticals. His argument that it's not anyone's place to make decisions on behalf of an athlete isn't especially convincing: Regulatory protections exist for a reason. But his other line of reasoning is more interesting. If giving up $10 million in earnings means little to a player who makes $100 million, and being handed $100,000 means everything to a broke minor leaguer, isn't there a justification to take money from the superstar and redistribute it to the underdog?Perhaps. But that, of course, leads to other, thornier questions. Why is the system built in such a way that young strivers are so desperate for quick cash? And why is an upstart hedge fund the one to fix it?When the Wharton panel on college sports begins, Schwimer is in his element. The other panelists — a sports agent, a college administrator, and a marketing executive — gently traipse through the intricacies of how NCAA athletes can be compensated today. Schwimer is having none of it. He rails against corruption in the college-sports system, scoffing at the half measures that keep amateur athletes from getting the money they deserve and casting himself as the trailblazing agent of disruption. So what if he's also done well for himself and his investors? He explains, again and again, that he's a free-market absolutist when it comes to getting kids paid. "I'm a believer in capitalism," he declares. "I'm a believer in America."During the Q&A session, an audience member asks about the way businesses and college boosters have begun pooling money to facilitate deals for student athletes. "That's what we want to know," the confused attendee says. "Like, what is going on?"Schwimer points to the college administrator seated beside him. "He'll give you the answer," he says. "I'll give you the truth!" The room erupts in laughter, and Schwimer smiles. For today, at least, the B-schoolers and MBAs see Schwimer just as he sees himself.Joseph Bien-Kahn is a freelance journalist based in Silverlake. He covers film, sports, true crime, and oddballs for GQ, Vulture, Sports Illustrated, and Businessweek, among other magazines.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»
Inside the company that calls itself "Moneyball-plus"
Michael Schwimer has discovered the ultimate cash cow for investors: teenage athletes. Just don't call it indentured servitude. "I'm a believer in capitalism," says Michael Schwimer, who founded Big League Advantage to cash in on the future earnings of teenage athletes. Simon Bruty/Sports Illustrated via Getty ImagesThe minor-league pitcher sits on the couch next to his wife. They're both in their early 20s, and they both look tense. They're on what could turn out to be the biggest — and most lucrative — Zoom call of their lives.The couple is joined on the call by their financial advisor and the husband's agent. For the next 45 minutes, they all listen, transfixed, as Michael Schwimer holds court from his home office in Maryland. A former pitcher with the Philadelphia Phillies (3 wins, 2 losses, 4.62 ERA), Schwimer is a 6-foot-8 Grecian bust of a man with a mop of curls. He begins his PowerPoint with an apology — he talks too much. From there, he tells the young pitcher about his life in the game, about the way players struggle financially — he once watched a teammate fish through a dumpster for food — and about the superstars he met who earned more millions than they could spend.Then Schwimer, who suddenly found his baseball career derailed by an injury, hit on an idea. What if athletes could sell a percentage of their future earnings to investors, the same way tech entrepreneurs offer a stake in their promising new ideas in return for venture capital? What is a minor-league pitcher, after all, if not a one-man startup aiming to break into the big leagues?So in 2016, Schwimer started Big League Advantage, a sort of hedge fund that invests in the future of minor-league baseball players. Following a landmark Supreme Court decision in 2021 that allowed student athletes to be paid, BLA has since expanded to invest in college football players, basketball players, hockey players, and coaches. (Schwimer explains that BLA also hopes to invest in musicians. "We haven't signed any yet, but anybody who wants a deal with us, we want to call us.") Using a proprietary algorithm monitored by some 30 analysts, the firm models a player's career earnings to decide how much to invest in them. "We look at the game very, very differently than everyone else," Schwimer tells the pitcher. "We probably spend more money on our analytics team than multiple teams combined."So far, Schwimer says, BLA has invested in the future earnings of nearly 600 players. The athlete — often a teenager — gets an up-front payment in return for up to 15% of their professional sports earnings over the next 25 years. Schwimer says the payments start around $100,000 and sometimes range into the millions. One of the fund's first deals was with the hot-shot shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., an 18-year-old who went on to sign a 14-year deal with the San Diego Padres for $340 million. If BLA secured only 8% of his earnings, Tatis alone would pay out $27.2 million — more than the company raised in its initial round of funding.Now, 20 minutes into the Zoom call, Schwimer arrives at what the pitcher and his wife have been waiting for: an offer. BLA, he announces, will pay the pitcher $12,000 for each percent of his future earnings, up to $180,000. That's a nice chunk of change for a young couple. But if he winds up making it big, the pitcher could be selling tens of millions in earnings to BLA for pennies on the dollar."Assume you're gonna make it," Schwimer urges the player. "Assume you're gonna be great. We've only had two players regret it later. If you're not gonna be happy, please don't do this."At the end of the call, the pitcher — who agreed to let me join on the condition he remain anonymous — asks Schwimer what will happen if he says no now. Is there a chance there will be a higher offer next year if he performs well on the field?Schwimer has anticipated the question. Ninety-two percent of the time, he tells the pitcher, the offer will wind up being lower. And 80 percent of the time, there will be no offer at all. The message is clear: If the couple wants the $180,000, it's now or never.Schwimer is far from alone in treating human beings as growth investments. X10 Capital, run by one of the original general partners at Benchmark Capital, offers similar deals to athletes. Finlete is launching a fund that allows fans to buy shares in a prospect's future earnings. Spotter and Jellysmack are paying influencers for a share of their YouTube revenue, and private firms and colleges are paying undergraduate tuition for students in return for a cut of their salaries once they enter the workforce. In perhaps the most extreme example, the brothers and serial tech entrepreneurs Daniil and David Liberman are selling shares of their own future earnings and aiming to list themselves on the stock market.Such investment schemes have drawn sharp criticism. "Big League Advance Is a Major League Scam," reads a typical headline. Sports agents, players unions, and lawmakers have compared BLA's business model to predatory loans or even indentured servitude. However you slice it, the hedge-fund approach to professional sports means that more of the riches will flow to wealthy investors and less to the athletes whose talent and effort actually generate the profits. That's because BLA isn't like an agent, who takes a cut of anything they manage to negotiate for a player. If you make it big, it's more like a payday loan on steroids — it gives you cash when you're strapped but takes a huge bite out of your income for the rest of your career."Until a couple of years ago, minor-league baseball players were among the lowest-paid employees in the entire country," says Garrett Broshuis, a minor leaguer turned lawyer who recently won a major class-action lawsuit for players over wage and overtime violations. "When you're that desperate, you're willing to take more risks. We're talking about human beings here, not startups." However you slice it, the hedge-fund approach to professional sports means more of the riches will flow to wealthy investors and less to the athletes whose talent actually generates the profits. A lifelong instigator, Schwimer revels in the negativity. He frames his business as somewhere between a social safety net and trickle-down economics. "We are 'Shark Tank,'" he tells me, "but for athletes and coaches." To him, the players who make it and owe BLA its cut are like any successful founder who owes a venture-capital firm its cut; those who don't are lucky enough to grab a little financial security in one of the world's toughest and most inequitable job markets. And though he has raised nearly $250 million in funding to invest in promising young athletes, he sees himself as a misunderstood underdog fighting on behalf of other underdogs. "I didn't start this company for agents," he says. "I didn't start this company for journalists. I started this company by players, for players."Last November, I spent a day with Schwimer in Philadelphia, where he was speaking to business-school students and alumni at the Wharton Sports Business Summit. Over breakfast, he tells me he still remembers the moment he knew he'd never be an MLB star.In 2008, after four years at the University of Virginia, he was drafted in the 14th round. When Schwimer arrived at his first minor-league workout, he watched pitcher after pitcher throw fastballs that whizzed and breaking balls that snapped in ways his never had. That day, he called his dad, a lawyer."I'm in trouble here," Schwimer told him. "I got no shot."His dad was unperturbed. "We got to figure out a way to be different," he said.So Schwimer started thinking analytically. He'd spent a summer interning at the hedge fund P.A.W. Partners, where he'd worked with their trading algorithms. To better understand the tendencies of the hitters he'd be facing, he built a rudimentary model. The data, he says, revealed that hitters are shockingly predictable creatures.Schwimer had four subpar pitches. But informed by his DIY pitch-selection algorithm, he managed to confuse batters enough to move up through the Phillies organization. He claims he got the nickname Houdini because no one could understand how he was sneaking his pitches by all these batters.Schwimer's teammates dubbed his penchant for wild theories and seeking creative edges "Schwimosophy."Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesThe story is vintage Schwimer — a slightly self-promotional tale that looks shaky on closer inspection. When I asked Erik Kratz, who was Schwimer's catcher in AAA, about the Houdini moniker, he responded with a laugh. "Is that a self-proclaimed nickname?" he said. "You better go back to him and see if he's talking about himself in the third person."Schwimer insisted the story was true — mostly. "People would say all the time: 'You're like fucking Houdini. How the fuck are you getting outs?'" he clarified when I went back to him. "But, yeah, I guess it probably was a little aggressive to say it was my nickname."Kratz says Schwimer developed a contentious reputation on his team for "questioning things" and seeking creative edges. Once, he annoyed every hitter in the dugout when he shared his idea to train one of them to foul off a dozen pitches per at bat, to tire out the opposing pitcher. "We were just like, 'Schwim, are you kidding me? You're completely demeaning what we do every single day,'" Kratz recalls. Kratz tells me they dubbed Schwimer's wild theories Schwimosophy.When Schwimer was drafted, his friends from home thought he was rich. "I signed for 3.2," he'd tell them, pausing for dramatic effect. "Thousand. After tax." He saw the precarious financial conditions that up-and-coming players face firsthand. When one top prospect in the Arizona Fall League told him that the stress of supporting his wife and baby was hurting his play, Schwimer says he floated what would later become the model for BLA. What if you could sell a share of your future earnings, he asked, for $10,000? "I'd give up 50% for 10 grand!" the guy joked.In 2011, when Schwimer got the call to join the Phillies, "it was the Motel 6 to the Ritz Carlton, overnight," he says. In an anecdote he often deploys in his sales pitches, he recounts hanging out with the All-Star starter Cole Hamels. "What does it mean to have $120 million?" he asked the pitcher. "It's great," Hamels told him. "I have the freedom to do anything I want in the offseason, but it's incrementally useless. If I had made $110 million, there'd be zero difference in my life." (Hamels declined to comment for this story.)The exchange, as Schwimer tells it, got him thinking. Soon after, he tore his labrum and faced a year of rehab. He fell into a depression, spending his days on the couch reading "Game of Thrones." Finally, prodded by his wife, he started tinkering with his hitters algorithm, transforming it into a tool to rank the career prospects of every minor-league player. In a "Moneyball" moment, he discovered that his model didn't jibe with the MLB's official rankings. Today, he says, more than 80% of the players BLA has invested in are outside the league's top 300 prospects. I ask if signing lower-level candidates is a conscious choice to maximize value. "No, we just think the rankings are terrible," he says.Fernando Tatis Jr. signed with BLA when he was 18.Sean M. Haffey/Getty ImagesDuring his two years in the MLB, Schwimer had accumulated wealthy contacts. "Once you get to the major leagues," he says, "billionaires all of a sudden wanna hang out with you and play some golf." The guys he met on the links gave him the capital for his first fund. "These are some of the biggest, heaviest hitters in the United States," Schwimer told the husband and wife on the Zoom call. "We have over 200 of them with a combined net worth over $100 billion."Members of BLA's board have included Marvin Bush, the brother of President George W. Bush, and Paul DePodesta, the Cleveland Browns executive who features heavily in "Moneyball." One of the billionaire investors who helped bankroll BLA's first fund was Bill Miller, who was famously early and bullish on Amazon. The rate of return Schwimer promised was astronomical. "It's gonna be pretty hard not to make money on it," Miller told HBO's "Real Sports." The data that Michael showed us was at least 30% a year for 20 years or so."The beauty of the model, from an investor's perspective, is the way it places relatively small bets that offer the prospect of huge outcomes. "We can only lose the money we give," Schwimer tells me, "and we can make a 50 times return." As in venture capital, a single unicorn can cover the cost of many, many bad bets. The key then is to identify promising players and correctly price their future earnings. And with baseball salaries soaring, betting long on sports contracts has an obvious appeal. In 1999, baseball's top-paid player brought home just under $12 million. Today, the Dodgers will pay Shohei Ohtani $70 million a year for the next decade. Even if 70 to 80 percent of BLA's investments never bear fruit, as Schwimer estimates, owning 15% of a star player's future earnings is like holding a share in something that — if the last half century is any guide — will only go up, and up, and up.As we walk from the diner to Penn's campus, Schwimer tells me that there's no difference between a startup founder taking an investment in exchange for equity and a young athlete taking an investment from him. He mentions that Jeff Bezos gave up 20% of Amazon for $1 million back in 1995, and today, post-divorce, Bezos owns only 10% of his company. He tells me he controls only 52% of BLA."Jeff Bezos gave 80%!" he says. "I gave up 48%! Was I taken advantage of? Was Jeff Bezos taken advantage of? Would anyone possibly say that? It's crazy to me. And nobody to this day has ever shown me any possible way as to why it's different."Part of the issue, I explain, is that the public has always balked at businessmen profiting off an athlete's excellence. Agents and owners are not exactly beloved. Schwimer dismisses such concerns as reflexively anti-business. "If we're a company that makes $2 billion, we are fucking over athletes," he says. "If we're a company that loses all our money, we do great for athletes. Well, that's bullshit. That's like if you invest in the stock market and you lose, you're great for the economy. But if you win, you're taking advantage of everybody. It's insane." "Athletes are thought of as dumb," Schwimer says. "It's an ism. Not racism; it's like intelligent-ism." I admit to Schwimer that I'd been feeling a certain queasiness about his company that I'd been trying to unpack. The fact that he was often investing in teenagers, seemingly in times of need, was something I couldn't square morally. People have long circled young stars with dubious or exploitative offers, financial or otherwise, I point out."Athletes are thought of as dumb," he responds. "Oh, God, it just kills me. Like, it's an ism. Not racism; it's like intelligent-ism. Do you know how hard it was for me to start this thing? I'm going in with 10 legs down. I'm a former baseball player. They all assume I'm a moron. Like, it's hard."Schwimer is protective of BLA's algorithm, which he believes provides him with a competitive edge. He would only share certain small differentiators, like the way the model puts more weight on how a minor-league hitter performs against an elite pitcher than how he performs against guys who will never make it to the show. Steven Duncker, a former Goldman Sachs partner who sits on BLA's board, admits he doesn't fully understand how the model works, but nevertheless believes they're onto something game-changing. "This is 'Moneyball'-plus," he tells me. "People say, 'You know the advantage is going to go away?' I'm shocked it hasn't. But it really hasn't."People say rookie shortstop Elly De La Cruz is guaranteed to make $500 million. "He might," Schwimer says. "He also might not make $2 million. He could get hit by a bus."Dylan Buell/Getty ImagesThere are, of course, some obvious hazards to betting on a person instead of a company. Tatis, the shortstop whom BLA is banking on, was suspended in 2022 for 80 games without pay after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. Two more offenses would result in a lifetime ban. "Three of our players under the age of 25 have died," says Schwimer. "But now, at least, their families have the money." People tell Schwimer that Elly De La Cruz, the rookie shortstop phenom who signed with BLA while in the minors, is guaranteed to make $500 million. "He might," Schwimer says. "He also might not make $2 million. He could get hit by a bus."But for all his talk about how athletes are derided as unintelligent, there is one type of player whose thought process Schwimer questions: those who choose not to sign with BLA. Schwimer claims he now has enough data to prove that if two players are ranked equally by the algorithm, and one takes money from the BLA and one does not, the player who takes the money is statistically more likely to make it to the majors.I'm puzzled. Why would that be?"It's self-selection," Schwimer tells me. "The ones that do our deals really care about making it and will do whatever it takes to make it. The players that don't do it? They're probably less intelligent."Schwimer says that no player has ever signed with BLA because they were desperate for the money. "No one's forcing anybody to do anything," he tells me. "No one's doing this out of need." He says signees often use the payments to purchase everything from personal training or private chefs to a new mattress. "Our models are blind to your background," he says.But others dispute that assessment. The primary targets of BLA are "indigent and talented players from Latin America," the baseball superagent Scott Boras told reporters. "Few if any top American talents who received large signing bonuses would ever consider the usurious terms. The idea of giving millions in lump sums to players is the justification of candy used to attract and compel players to give up huge percentages of their careers. That solely benefits BLA."In response to Boras's quote, Schwimer wrote back a 700-word email that took it on with seven bullet-pointed objections, including: "4. He uses the term 'usurious' which is correlated to loans. Words have actual definitions. We do not give loans to players (no one thinks this)." The email ended: "Again, there are no two sides to BLA. Period."In 2021, HBO's "Real Sports" found that half of BLA's investments were in players from Latin America. Yermín Mercedes, a prospect highlighted in the segment, said he took $165,000 from BLA for 15% of his future earnings because his family in the Dominican Republic was relying on him for financial support. "I have a big family," he said at the time. "They need me all the time because right now I'm the head of my family. I just want to do the best I can do for them."Schwimer says he doesn't keep track of players' countries of origin, so he couldn't offer an up-to-date figure on who it's cutting deals with. "We have signed over 100 American players," he insists, "many of which have received signing bonuses in the millions of dollars." But that would mean, by Schwimer's own calculation, that the vast majority of the nearly 600 players signed by BLA are not American.In 2018, Francisco Mejía, a Cleveland Indians prospect who accepted $360,000 from BLA for 10% of his future earnings, sued the fund for "unconscionable conduct." In the complaint, he claimed that his mother was sick when BLA approached him and that the fund had him sign a draft of the contract in an airport without an interpreter present. BLA's response was to countersue Mejia, who wound up dropping his lawsuit and issuing a public apology. "To be clear," he said, "I do not believe Big League Advance has ever deceived me."Gervon Dexter is suing BLA for signing him after his sophomore year in college. He now owes the fund more than $1 million of his $6.72 million contract with the Chicago Bears. Icon SportswireBLA has more recently come under fire for cutting deals with athletes while they're still in school. In 2022, the defensive lineman Gervon Dexter signed over 15% of his pretax future earnings for $436,485 after his sophomore year at the University of Florida. A year later, Dexter signed a four-year contract for $6.72 million with the Chicago Bears — more than $1 million of which he would have to hand over to BLA. Last September, Dexter sued BLA, arguing that Florida law allows deals with athletes only while they're enrolled in college, not after, and therefore his contract is null and void. An initial hearing will be held in March.Schwimer, for his part, maintains that he has always followed the law. He tells me he tends to believe he was sued by Dexter and Mejía because advisors told them BLA would give them a settlement to avoid the expense and the reputational risk of going to court. "But we can't settle," Schwimer says. "If we settle one, the whole company's over."Before his Wharton panel begins, Schwimer finds me in the atrium of Huntsman Hall. He's been thinking about why all the media coverage of BLA has been so negative. "It always starts with a writer calling me and you can tell wanting to kill me," he says. "And then, after an hour, they're like, 'Actually, what you do is amazing. I can't write anything.'" Their publications, he suggests, refuse to run the stories because they don't want to piss off powerful sports agents.I tell him, as someone who has written many sports stories, that his theory is hard to square with my experience. But Schwimer continues with his Scwimosohpy. Sure, the lawsuits and the home-run investments like Tatis are newsworthy, he argues. But why not write about all the guys who flamed out and got to keep their payments? "I've done so many interviews just like this one where you go back to your editor and he'll be like, 'Nah, it's not a story because no one gives a crap about the people that don't make it,'" Schwimer says. "I know what it's like when the world leaves you for dead at 25, 26 years old. It's brutal. And nobody cares. The media doesn't care." He pauses. "I care." Schwimer's reasoning leads to thornier questions. Why is the system built in such a way that young strivers are so desperate for quick cash? And why is an upstart hedge fund the one to fix it? Throughout our many conversations, Schwimer is rarely combative; his presentation is that of an energetic star of a high-school debate team. He answers many of my questions with questions of his own. He thinks the moral quandary of what he's doing is a fallacy that can be disproven via hypotheticals. His argument that it's not anyone's place to make decisions on behalf of an athlete isn't especially convincing: Regulatory protections exist for a reason. But his other line of reasoning is more interesting. If giving up $10 million in earnings means little to a player who makes $100 million, and being handed $100,000 means everything to a broke minor leaguer, isn't there a justification to take money from the superstar and redistribute it to the underdog?Perhaps. But that, of course, leads to other, thornier questions. Why is the system built in such a way that young strivers are so desperate for quick cash? And why is an upstart hedge fund the one to fix it?When the Wharton panel on college sports begins, Schwimer is in his element. The other panelists — a sports agent, a college administrator, and a marketing executive — gently traipse through the intricacies of how NCAA athletes can be compensated today. Schwimer is having none of it. He rails against corruption in the college-sports system, scoffing at the half measures that keep amateur athletes from getting the money they deserve and casting himself as the trailblazing agent of disruption. So what if he's also done well for himself and his investors? He explains, again and again, that he's a free-market absolutist when it comes to getting kids paid. "I'm a believer in capitalism," he declares. "I'm a believer in America."During the Q&A session, an audience member asks about the way businesses and college boosters have begun pooling money to facilitate deals for student athletes. "That's what we want to know," the confused attendee says. "Like, what is going on?"Schwimer points to the college administrator seated beside him. "He'll give you the answer," he says. "I'll give you the truth!" The room erupts in laughter, and Schwimer smiles. For today, at least, the B-schoolers and MBAs see Schwimer just as he sees himself.Joseph Bien-Kahn is a freelance journalist based in Silverlake. He covers film, sports, true crime, and oddballs for GQ, Vulture, Sports Illustrated, and Businessweek, among other magazines.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»
30 Best Excuses to Get Out of Work Provided By AI Chatbots
In this article we present the list of 30 Best Excuses to Get Out of Work Provided By AI Chatbots. Click to skip our detailed analysis of the state of the chatbot market today and jump right to the 10 Best Excuses to Get Out of Work Provided By AI Chatbots. If you’re looking for some […] In this article we present the list of 30 Best Excuses to Get Out of Work Provided By AI Chatbots. Click to skip our detailed analysis of the state of the chatbot market today and jump right to the 10 Best Excuses to Get Out of Work Provided By AI Chatbots. If you’re looking for some good excuses to get out of work for a week, or even just a day, and your human brain just can’t come up with anything that isn’t totally lame or cliche, perhaps AI is the answer. AI chatbots have exploded into the public consciousness in the last year, driven by the November 2022 launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. The renowned chatbot had more than 100 million active users within just two months of its launch and garnered 1.6 billion visits in June 2023 alone. The platform generates well-articulated and informative responses to just about any question posed to it, including believable sick day excuses. We have even used the platform to compile a list of ChatGPT’s top stock picks. Given its controversial ability to generate everything from fake excuses to get out of work (as we’ll see below), to full-blown essays, to staggering misinformation, ChatGPT has been banned by several countries, including Italy, though that particular ban over privacy concerns has since been lifted. While ChatGPT has attracted the lion’s share of public interest, it’s far from the only chatbot. Zendesk, Inc. (NYSE:ZEN)’s Zendesk Bots, Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM)’s Einstein, International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM)’s Watson Assistant, HubSpot, Inc. (NYSE:HUBS)’s Chatbot Builder, Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG)’s Bard, and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)’s Bing Chat are just a few of the other chatbots on the market. Until now, the broader chatbot industry has largely been devoted to customer service applications, allowing websites to handle service requests, inquiries, and sales through an automated platform. The industry is still relatively small in size, at an estimated $5.13 billion in 2022 according to Grand View Research, but it’s expected to grow at an impressive 24% CAGR between 2023 and 2030. Social media chatbots are expected to be a strong growth driver for the industry, with their CAGR projected to be on par with the overall growth of the industry. Zendesk’s Customer Service Bots Zendesk, Inc. (NYSE:ZEN) Bots offers both standard and advanced bots to the company’s customers for implementation into their websites. The company’s advanced bots use AI to accurately recognize support requests and forward them to the proper channels. They also come with pre-trained understanding of customer intents in several industries, including financial services, software, and retail. Zendesk, Inc. (NYSE:ZEN) was acquired by a group of private equity firms in June 2022 for $10.2 billion after previously turning down a $17 billion takeover offer. Salesforce’s Generative AI for CRM Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM)’s Einstein GPT is billed by the company as the world’s first generative AI for CRM applications. The AI platform can generate emails and conversations based on real-time insights culled from customers’ business data, boosting sales and improving the customer experience. Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM)’s leading AI ecosystem, which also includes Slack GPT and Tableau GPT, helped the company grow revenue by 11% year-over-year to $8.25 billion in the quarter ended April 30. Free cash flow surged by 21% to $4.25 billion. IBM’s Business-Focused AI Assistant International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM)’s Watson Assistant uses deep learning and machine learning in combination with a natural language processing model that allows it to interact with customers in a conversational tone and accurately understand context and intent. The model also has an intelligent search function that can quickly scan documents and websites for the most concise and relevant answers. International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM)’s software revenue grew by 7.5% year-over-year during the company’s Q3 2023 period, hitting $5.81 billion and widely topping analysts’ estimates. HubSpot’s Free AI Chatpot Tools HubSpot, Inc. (NYSE:HUBS)’s Chatbot Builder allows customers to choose from a range of chatbot templates or customize their own bot with features like meeting scheduling, leads qualifying, and task automation. The chatbots are fully integrated with HubSpot’s free CRM software, which includes additional features like analytics and email marketing, allowing the bots to be customized with personalized messages that pull information from an information database. HubSpot, Inc. (NYSE:HUBS) grew its first quarter earnings by 122% year-over-year to $1.20, while revenue jumped by 27% to $502 million. HubSpot Chief Executive Yamini Rangan believes generative AI is leading to a massive transformational shift in the market and that the company is well positioned to help customers optimize their operations through AI. Bard Building on Years of Alphabet’s AI Research Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG)’s Bard is a generative AI chatbot in the vein of ChatGPT that uses a large language model to deliver conversational responses regarding everything from the latest developments surrounding the James Webb Space Telescope to 10 really unusual sick day excuses. Bard is not yet widely available or as popular as ChatGPT. Alphabet has been using AI for years to improve Google’s understanding of language and what the key aspects of a specific search question are so the engine can deliver the most relevant results. Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) pulled in $62 billion in revenue in Q2 driven by growth in Search revenue, which has thus far withstood the challenge of AI chatbots. Microsoft’s Browser-Based AI Chatbot Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)’s Bing Chat is another AI chatbot that will be competing with ChatGPT and Bard. Bing Chat has numerous intriguing features that are either already implemented, or are in development. One of them is the chatbot’s ability to summarize long form online content into concise explanations. Another is the ability to compare various products, with the bot even utilizing tables to summarize the pertinent information of each product. The Ithaka Group is bullish on Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)’s position in the generative AI market, having this to say about the company in its Q2 2023 investor letter: “Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) builds best-in-class platforms and provides services that help drive small business productivity, large business competitiveness, and public-sector efficiency. Microsoft’s products include operating systems, cross-device productivity applications, server applications, software development tools, video games, and business-solution applications. The company also designs, manufactures, and sells devices, including PCs, tablets, and gaming/entertainment consoles that all integrate with Azure, its cloud computing service. In the quarter Microsoft’s stock appreciated on the back of excitement surrounding the company’s positioning in the generative AI market and its ability to monetize the coming wave of corporate investment in supercomputing and AI.” AI chatbots have rapidly become a great source of random information, providing everything from a list of reasons for leave of absence from work to the most plausible family emergency excuses, and their capabilities are only scratching the surface of what they could eventually become, which has investors and consumers alike excited for the future of chatbots. For now, let’s go ahead and check out the best excuses to get out of work as generated by the current iterations of two specific AI chatbots. Our Methodology The 30 Best Excuses to Get Out of Work Provided By AI Chatbots are ranked subjectively based on their plausibility and how applicable they are to the masses. The lists provided by two different AI chatbots were used to compile the ranking, Google’s Bard and OpenAI’s ChatGPT, and each listing notes which chatbot came up with the idea. In cases where both chatbots had the same idea, we used the one that offered the better supporting reasoning and ways to implement the excuse. The chatbot that came up with the most quality excuses will be crowned the winner at the end of the article. Note that Microsoft’s Bing Chat was also consulted but refused to provide any excuses, making it the least fun chatbot of the three. On with the excuses! 30 Best Excuses to Get Out of Work Provided By AI Chatbots 30. Religious holiday. If you celebrate a religious holiday that falls on a workday, you may need to take a day off work. This is a legitimate reason for missing work, and your boss should be understanding. Chat Bot: Bard This is a rather weak suggestion, as there would actually have to be a religious holiday taking place on the day in question for this excuse to have any merit, and there are relatively few of those on the calendar. 29. Need to buy urgent medication. If you need to buy urgent medication, you can use this as an excuse to miss work. Be sure to mention what the medication is for and how long it will take to get it. Chat Bot: Bard If you’re looking for one of the best excuses to get out of work for the day, this probably isn’t it. It would be hard to justify needing an entire day off simply to go buy medication. 28. Public Transportation Issues: “There’s a major disruption in public transportation, and I won’t be able to reach work on time.” Chat Bot: ChatGPT This is a poor excuse for multiple reasons. There would have to be a known issue with local public transportation (such as a workers’ strike) for this to fly, and even then, there are potentially several workarounds (other unaffected transportation options) that should still be able to get you to work. 27. Severe Weather: “Due to inclement weather conditions, it’s unsafe for me to commute to work.” Chat Bot: ChatGPT This is another excuse that has extremely limited viability, as the weather would actually have to be quite extreme in your area for this to have any merit. 26. Legal Obligation: “I have to appear in court for a legal matter.” Chat Bot: ChatGPT This isn’t a terrible excuse on the surface, but it does run the risk of your employer asking into the nature of the legal matter, which they may even be required to do if such a matter is brought to their attention. As such, this excuse is probably too risky to use. 25. Interview. If you have a job interview, you may need to take a day off work to attend the interview. This is a legitimate reason for missing work, and your boss should be understanding. Chat Bot: Bard This is another excuse that isn’t terrible in a vacuum, but it would cause your employer to question your loyalty if they believe you to be out looking for other work. If you actually like your job and do intend to keep it for the foreseeable future, you probably don’t want your employer thinking otherwise. 24. Travel delays. If your flight or train is delayed, you may need to miss work. You can say that your flight was cancelled, that your train was delayed, or that you’re stuck in traffic. Chat Bot: Bard Not one of the best excuses to get out of work as far as a train being delayed or being stuck in traffic goes. Unless you’re claiming the train is delayed by hours or that you’re stuck in the traffic jam of the century, those excuses aren’t going to buy you a day off work. A flight cancellation has more merit if you travel a lot for work, but isn’t going to be viable for the average worker. 23. Pregnant sickness. If you’re pregnant and experiencing morning sickness or other pregnancy-related nausea, you can use this as an excuse to miss work. Be sure to mention how severe the nausea is and how long it’s been going on. Chat Bot: Bard If you’re actually a biological female and pregnant, then this is undoubtedly one of the best excuses to get out of work. If you’re neither of those things, which probably applies to 98-99% of the population, then it’s rather useless. 22. Volunteer work. If you volunteer for a cause that you care about, you may need to take a day off work to volunteer. This is a legitimate reason for missing work, and your boss should be understanding. Chat Bot: Bard I wouldn’t be so sure about the boss being understanding. Your employer may appreciate that you do volunteer work, but not when it’s conflicting with your non-volunteer, I’m-paying-you-to-be-here work. 21. Training. If you need to attend training, you may need to take a day off work. This is a legitimate reason for missing work, but you’ll need to make sure that you’re able to make up the work. Chat Bot: Bard This could be an alright excuse in the right scenario, depending on what kind of work you do and whether training or certification courses could add valuable new skills to your repertoire. The downside is, your employer would probably want to know the specifics of the training as far as how it relates to your job, and then might expect you to add those tasks to your workload. 20. Deadlines. If you have a deadline that you need to meet, you may need to take a day off work to work on it. This is a legitimate reason for missing work, but you’ll need to make sure that you’re able to meet the deadline. Chat Bot: Bard Decent excuse in the right scenario, though it could also make your employer question your job performance if you’re claiming to be well behind on a project you perhaps shouldn’t be so far behind on. 19. Jury Duty: “I’ve been summoned for jury duty and have to report to the courthouse.” Chat Bot: ChatGPT It some ways it sounds like one of the most crazy and yet cliché excuses ever, but hey, it’s actually plausible if you live in an area where jury duty is a legal requirement. 18. Personal Counseling or Therapy: “I have a scheduled counseling/therapy session that I can’t miss.” Chat Bot: ChatGPT This isn’t a bad excuse, whether it would justify a full day off work is the primary question. If you claim the appointment is smack dab in the middle of the day, leaving you only a couple hours to come in on either side of it, it could work. 17. Last-minute appointment. If you have a last-minute appointment that you can’t reschedule, you can use this as an excuse to miss work. Be sure to mention what the appointment is for and how long it will take. Chat Bot: Bard As far as good excuses to get out of things last minute goes, this is one of the safest bets. Your employer may ask for the details and whether or not you can make it in at any point during the day however. 16. Muscle problems. If you have muscle problems, such as a pulled muscle or a sprain, you can use this as an excuse to miss work. Be sure to mention what happened and how long you need to rest. Chat Bot: Bard This is a pretty solid excuse in that it could be applied to many jobs and probably isn’t going to require any kind of doctor’s note to justify. 15. Car problems. If your car breaks down, you may need to miss work to get it fixed. You can say that your car broke down on the way to work, that you had to get it towed, or that you’re waiting for a part to be delivered. Chat Bot: Bard Car problems is a relatively standard excuse, but not one of the best excuses to get out of work for the day, as it doesn’t necessarily explain why you can’t still get in to work via public transportation. 14. Sleepless Night: “I had a sleepless night due to unforeseen circumstances and need to rest.” Chat Bot: ChatGPT If you just need sick leave reasons for 1 day, this is a good excuse in the sense that there’s no way to disprove it. Whether or not your employer thinks you should just tough it out and work on little to no sleep anyway is another matter. 13. Technology Malfunction: “My computer crashed, and I won’t be able to work remotely.” Chat Bot: ChatGPT This is one of best excuses to get out of work if you’re a remote worker and pretty much the standard go-to excuse. However, given the rising work capabilities of smartphones, it’s becoming harder to justify taking a day off work on the basis that your laptop or PC isn’t operational. 12. Car Accident: “I was involved in a minor car accident, and I need to handle the insurance process.” Chat Bot: ChatGPT A decent excuse, though the insurance process doesn’t take very long and the accident would have to have occurred before your shift (on the way to work presumably), potentially leaving plenty of time to still come in to work. You could ask for the day off on the basis of having to also take the car in to a shop to be looked at and/or yourself to a clinic to be examined. 11. Moving or Relocation: “I’m moving to a new residence and need to take care of moving-related tasks.” Chat Bot: ChatGPT Claiming you have a moving day is a decent excuse to get out of work, unless your work has to mail you stuff, in which case it would cause issues. In the second half of this article we’ll check out the ten best excuses to get out of work according to AI and declare which AI chatbot offered better slacker suggestions. Click to continue reading and see the 10 Best Excuses to Get Out of Work Provided By AI Chatbots. Suggested articles: Top 20 Free iPhone and iPad Games 10 Best Cocktails for People Who Don’t Like Taste of Alcohol 35 Best Drama Movies on Netflix Disclosure: None. 30 Best Excuses to Get Out of Work Provided By AI Chatbots is originally published at Insider Monkey......»»
Meet Hollywood"s hottest new movie star: corporate brands
From Barbie to Beanie Babies, why are so many movies suddenly selling products rather than telling stories? Brand-centric films like Barbie have a dark side: They are a symptom of the precarity of today's job market.Barbie/Mattel, Mario/Amazon, Tyler Le/InsiderHollywood's penchant for capitalizing on fleeting trends has given us many eerily similar "twin films" released at the same time. 1998 alone brought us "Deep Impact" and "Armageddon," "Saving Private Ryan" and "The Thin Red Line," and "Antz" and "A Bug's Life." 2011 served up "Friends with Benefits" and "No Strings Attached." But the release of half a dozen movies about brands — Barbie, Flamin' Hot Cheetos, Tetris, Nike Air, BlackBerry, and Beanie Babies — in six months isn't just the result of Hollywood groupthink and coincidence.Movies about brands have something original concepts don't: audience prerecognition. Because people already know something about the story, the studios surmise, they're more likely to be interested in it. People like Flamin' Hot Cheetos, so they'll probably click on a movie called "Flamin' Hot," the thinking at Hulu went. In a tightening economy, Hollywood has turned toward these kinds of safe bets: 13 more movies based on toys from Mattel, the company behind Barbie, have been announced, and another 45 are in development.Most of these brand-centric movies have another thing in common, compounding their twinness: Instead of just using the brand as a jumping-off point, they focus on the brand's origin story. That's no coincidence either; the rise of this kind of branded success story is an attempt to capitalize on the increasing demand for workers to brand themselves to make a living. Success in the growing gig economy, the market for short-term and freelance work, is predicated on the cultivation and maintenance of strong personal brands. In a sense, successful brands are the new American movie stars. But just as these brand-centric movies ring hollow, so does the gig economy they're catering to.The new movie starsBetween this spring and this summer there will have been five movies released whose plots are about the creation of a brand: "Flamin' Hot," "Air," "Tetris," "The Beanie Bubble," and "BlackBerry." They're all named after the main character, the product. You don't need to get into the specifics to know the plot: an underdog tale about how something we like to buy came to be."Flamin' Hot" is a rags-to-riches account of an industrious janitor who seizes his last chance to pitch a spicy variation of the crunchy corn puff and become a marketing executive. "Air" tells the story of a nearly forgotten shoe brand whose struggling basketball division doggedly pursues a deal with an unproven college basketball player, to everyone's massive success. "The Beanie Bubble" follows Zach Galifianakis as Ty Warner, the unsuccessful toy salesman who landed on the overnight success of Beanie Babies.While glossing over the real barriers to success people face — things like abusive bosses, wage theft, and the precarity of unemployment — the movies focus on how, with some plucky perseverance, anyone can build a world-conquering brand. ("Barbie," which is lining up to be the hottest movie of the summer, is a bit of an outlier in this regard. While the plot isn't about the making of Barbie, Barbie and Ken do step outside Barbie Land to peek behind the curtains of their creation.)While "Barbie" stars Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling and "Air" stars Ben Affleck, most of these movies lack star power. The human characters often play second fiddle to the brands. This is what makes these movies feel so hollow: Any excitement or positive feelings they engender are ultimately in service of consumer packaged goods. Each movie asks us to feel something … about Flamin' Hot Cheetos. But the narrative is selling because millions of Americans are trying to build similarly successful brands — of themselves.The gig economy's empty promiseThe gig economy promises a shortcut to the freedoms enjoyed by the entrepreneurs and owners valorized in these films — you get to work when you want to and be your own boss. So far, the pitch has been successful. Since Uber, Fiverr, and other gig companies hit the scene in the early 2010s, the gig economy has been growing: Some 35% of workers in 2021 were freelancers. In the wake of COVID-19, an unprecedented number of people quit their jobs, and many turned to freelancing. The reasons varied: wage stagnation, the precarity of at-will employment, the ever present threat and unpredictability of layoffs. From 1979 to 2020, productivity in the US grew by 61.8% while wages grew by 17.5%.For companies, a big appeal of gig work is the cheap cost of labor. Some studies suggest that using independent contractors — the formal classification of gig workers — instead of full-time employees can save companies up to 30%. As more companies look to gig workers to replace full-time jobs, more workers take up gig work.But just like the films, the gig economy largely hasn't delivered on the goods. In the gig economy, a person is both the product and the business. As such, many gig workers attempt to differentiate themselves from their competitors by crafting a personal brand on social media. With an estimated 58 million American gig workers, it's a race to the bottom to stand out and secure work. In a 2020 survey conducted by the Shift Project, 14% of gig workers said they earned less than the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour. The majority — about 64% — of gig workers said they earned between $0 and $14.99 an hour, whereas about 89% of W-2 workers, those employed by a company, said they earned at least $10 an hour.Since almost all gig workers are classified as independent contractors, they don't receive the standard protections and benefits that ordinary employees typically receive. This includes things like a minimum wage, health insurance, access to unemployment insurance if they get laid off, paid sick days, and health-and-safety protections. They also don't have the same right as W-2 employees have to organize and negotiate with their employers for better working conditions. More startlingly, reports of wage theft are widespread: In the Shift survey, 62% of gig workers said they hadn't been paid for their work in at least one instance, and 36% said they'd lost wages three or more times. This adds up. In 2021, the Federal Trade Commission forced Amazon to pay $61.7 million to settle allegations that over two years it'd been stealing tips from contracted delivery drivers. An analysis published by the Economic Policy Institute in 2021 suggests that while earners in all income levels experience wage theft, most are independent contractors and hourly workers.Gig workers have begun to push back on their raw deal. Following three separate strikes this year, Uber and Lyft drivers in New York received pay increases. App-based delivery drivers in New York recently won a minimum wage of nearly $18. There's the rise of Fuck You Pay Me, an app for creators to share and compare the deals they receive from companies and describe what it's like to work with them; before, there wasn't a centralized place, like a Glassdoor, for creators to share their experiences with clients.These recent fights highlight the rot underlying the promise of the gig economy. As the economy continues to emphasize the importance of self-branding through gig work, brand movies will continue to resonate. We're all brands now. And if you decide to wade into the freelance waters, it's best to have your branding floaties equipped.Jared Holst is a Brooklyn-based writer focused on the ways branding impacts all facets of life from pop culture to policy. In addition to Insider, Jared has been published in Naked Capitalism, and self-publishes on Substack at Brands Mean a Lot. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»
Everyone is getting paid these days — except investment bankers
Wall Street seems to be shelling out more money for plenty of roles in finance except one: investment bankers. Finally Friday! Dan DeFrancesco in NYC.Fun Fact Friday: Blood Falls is a waterfall in Antarctica that gets its name from its vibrant red water. Here's what causes its unique color.Today, we've got stories on a first look at the actors in the upcoming GameStop movie, a visual representation of how tough the housing market is, and why the future of flight delays might not be so bad.But first, I think it's time for a raise.Klaus Vedfelt / Getty Images1. How much do you get paid?Can you solve this riddle?I work long hours and get mediocre pay compared to those in my field. The regulators don't let me take any risks.My peers make crazy bets on startups and AI.But I can't even take the private plane for a little ride. And now I hear the lawyers are getting paid higher fees?Surely this is some kind of sick joke being played on me.Who am I?It's been a tough go for investment bankers recently.The M&A and IPO markets have been at a near standstill for the past year. The lack of dealmaking and companies going public means no fees, which means weak bonuses.As if all that wasn't bad enough for bankers, The Wall Street Journal recently reported that even lawyers are now making more money than them.The story highlighted one recent high-profile move — dealmaker Robert Kindler's departure from Morgan Stanley to the law firm Paul Weiss — as evidence of the trend.There are several factors affecting the rise in lawyer pay, as outlined in the story, but perhaps more interesting is how compensation for bankers hasn't risen.It turns out the culprit, as is often the case on Wall Street, is inflation.Investment banking fees have been largely unchanged over the years, per the WSJ, which is why the average total comp for a non-high-ranking managing director is usually between $1 million to $2 million. That figure has largely remained the same over the past 20 years.Lawyers, meanwhile, have been more cognizant than bankers of the fact that the price of things tends to go up. Most large law firms increase their rates by about 4% annually, according to the WSJ. As a result, equity partners at big firms can now make $3 million a year.It's getting really tough these days to make the case for getting into investment banking. The hours are long. The work can be boring. And it seems like everyone — from hedge funders to private-equity dealmakers — is making more money than bankers. Sure, there is a certain cachet that comes with working at a large investment bank, as those junior positions can serve as a springboard for your career. And if you choose to remain at the bank and to rise to the top, you can hold the type of power most people on Wall Street can only dream of.But non-banks are getting smarter about recruiting talent right out of college, and there are only so many C-level positions at big banks to go around. That begs the question: Why bother getting into investment banking at all?In other news:Sony2. Meet the cast of the upcoming GameStop movie "Dumb Money." Seth Rogen, Nick Offerman, and Paul Dano are among the stars cast to play key figures in the upcoming film based on the GameStop short-squeeze of 2021. Check out screenshots from the film, and how they compare with their real-life counterparts. And here's how I would have cast the movie.3. Steve Cohen is all-in on using ecstasy for treating PTSD. The billionaire investor and his wife, Alexandra, donated $5 million to a nonprofit pushing to legalize the usage of MDMA for treatment, per Bloomberg. More on why the Cohens are backing psychedelic projects.4. Seven charts explaining the dumpster fire that is the housing market. Harvard researchers released a report detailing why it's such a bad time to buy a home. Here are a handful of charts that demonstrate why that's the case.5. First Republic bankers keep heading for the exits. Roughly 50 wealth advisors and staff from the bankrupt firm have already departed JPMorgan, which acquired First Republic less than two months ago, according to Semafor.6. The economist guiding the parents of the upper middle class. Emily Oster has grown to be one of the most powerful, and at times controversial, health experts in the US. More on her rise.7. David Solomon is losing the clubhouse. The Goldman Sachs CEO's future is reportedly in doubt as the bank's board loses confidence in him, according to The Messenger. A spokesperson for the bank, meanwhile, told The Messenger that Solomon and the leadership team "are focused on delivering for clients and executing on our strategy. The same tired stories from the same tired sources aren't going to change that." Read the full story here.8. The latest ranking of the world's most liveable cities doesn't have any from the US in the top 10. Not a great showing from the US in the Economist Intelligence Unit's annual ranking. More on the list here.9. This could be the future of flight delays. United has a plan for how to handle passengers facing flight delays. Here's how you could get instant gratification when you're stuck at the airport.10. Some tips if you're going to start on the Mediterranean diet. Consistently considered one of the healthiest ways to eat, the Mediterranean diet relies on vegetables, legumes, seafood, and olive oil. Check out tips from a dietitian on some go-to snacks.Curated by Dan DeFrancesco in New York. Feedback or tips? Email ddefrancesco@insider.com, tweet @dandefrancesco, or connect on LinkedIn. Edited by Jeffrey Cane (tweet @jeffrey_cane) in New York and Nathan Rennolds (tweet @ncrennolds) in London. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»
"Yesterday"s Soccer Mom Is Today"s Domestic Extremist": A Guide To Surviving The Culture
"Yesterday's Soccer Mom Is Today's Domestic Extremist": A Guide To Surviving The Culture Author and conservative commentator Peachy Keenan is sick and tired of yesterday's soccer mom being treated as today's "domestic extremist" in public discourse by media gatekeepers and government officials alike—and all the while parents are sheepishly and too easily abdicating their natural role as captains and defenders of the household. "They like to make us, the normal people, the moms and dads of America into extremists. But if you look around it's pretty easy to see who the real extremists are," Keenan told Harris Faulkner on Fox prime time Tuesday night. Getty Images She is calling for a back to the basics while writing from deep behind 'enemy lines': southern California. "Parenting is not a game. There is no do-over. You are all that stands between your small charges and the roiling storms ahead—and the band of purple-haired nonbinary pirates that’s about to storm the deck." Keenan has written a new handbook of sorts, or a practical guide to winning the culture war and protecting your family from the ravings of "Childless weirdos have taken over every institution we look to for guidance on how to raise good citizens..." Keenan holds nothing back in the following blistering commentary from her book [emphasis ZH]: It has become only too clear what this absence of parental authority has wrought. Truly insane people have taken over the American education system, Big Pharma, and Big Tech. They know the best way to reach the Final Solution of the American family is to focus on young, impressionable minds. We are enjoying the fruits of their labor now: an explosion of teen depression and suicide, an epidemic of children who are confused if they’re boys or girls, and an incredible 40 percent of Gen Z reporting that they are some letter in the ever-expanding alphabet soup known as LGBTQ+. Peachy Keenan (@KeenanPeachy) makes her debut in Primetime: "They like to make us, the normal people, the moms and dads of America into extremists. But if you look around it's pretty easy to see who the real extremists are." pic.twitter.com/nUkutC8W9V — Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) June 7, 2023 Who are the real extremists? The below is an excerpt from Domestic Extremist: A Practical Guide to Winning the Culture War, by Peachy Keenan, with permission of the author. The book is now available from Regnery. * * * You had a baby? Look at you—you’re the captain now! Or are you? The words on a poster taped to a teacher’s classroom door at a New Jersey public school expose the precarious corner American parents have been painted into. “If your parents aren’t accepting of your identity, I’m your mom now.” The poster featured a drawing of a mama bear tending to her bear cubs, who are each painted the color of a different LGBTQ flag. Parents, I have bad news. You’ve got competition. Someone posted a job listing looking for a new authority figure in your house, and they hired everyone who applied. Lots of other adults, most of them unpleasant strangers, would like to raise your children for you—or at least get your children to hate you. This may already be happening—and you’ll be the last to know! All your hard work to keep creeps, perverts, and kiddie-sniffers away from your kids may get reversed in an instant when you’re not looking. Some parents are okay with this. They can barely handle “adulting” themselves and are thrilled not to make any tough parental decisions. Abdicating their natural role as master and commander of the household is lazy, but it’s a defensive posture. They live in terror of accusations from other parents of “closed-mindedness,” or worse, being a prude. American parents have either forgotten their innate, God-given authority over their household or surrendered it in the face of relentless pressure over many years from the outside. Just as millennia of trickling snowmelt can hollow out mighty granite mountains and turn them into canyons, a half-century of unchecked influence by feminists and far-left progressives have chipped away at the role of parents in their children’s lives. What is left is a barren wasteland, a valley of shadows, where mothers and fathers have been reduced to nothing more than the oldest dependents in the house. Your job as a parent is not easy, but it’s simple: feed, nurture, love, and protect. In the face of life-and-death danger—say, an escaped tiger or an ax-wielding lunatic—probably 100 percent of parents would risk their lives for their children, even die, without hesitation. So why are so many reluctant to defend their children from less obvious, but equally dangerous, scenarios? You can tell when you’re about to be trampled by elephants. It’s trickier when the trampling is invisible and being committed by a young teacher with peace stickers on xe/xer’s car. I’ll grant that having pro- nouns in your bio is not quite the same red flag as cruising a playground in a car with no door handles on the inside, but it’s still a red flag parents need to fear. People who manage to produce offspring are too often seduced into voluntarily surrendering their authority over them. They allow various “experts” to hold sway over their kids. Exhausted and confused, they willingly hand their kids off to the local public school teachers’ unions, the DEI struggle-session facilitators, the storytelling drag queens, and the sex-education consultants who arrive at school with teaching props, including wholesome kid-friendly items like dildos and anal lube. Above: School hangs poster on the door that says, "I'm Your Mom Now" They all share a common goal: to dilute your authority and increase their own. They aim to groom America’s children from birth to become compliant consumers of all they wish to sell them: bespoke genders, any-term abortion, strictly enforced racial hierarchies, a lifetime of therapy, prescription drugs, and whatever political and social ideology they choose to upload into their brains. God forbid you are the only parent at your school who keeps your fifth grader home on Share Your Favorite Sex Toy Day. What will people say? Allow me to remind you gently: it’s your job to steer the ship, avoid icebergs, prevent scurvy, and stave off mutinies. Parenting is not a game. There is no do-over. You are all that stands between your small charges and the roiling storms ahead—and the band of purple-haired nonbinary pirates that’s about to storm the deck. Sexualized Early and Often Imagine being the only one at the PTA meeting who stands up and objects to your second grader studying detailed diagrams of adult genitalia, or your middle schoolers instructed on how to grant consent to anal sex. (These are real sex ed guidelines introduced in New Jersey public schools in 2020.) Your choices are stark: assert your authority over your children and get called a bigot or go along with the madness and let them take your child to places you don’t want them to go. How bad is it? Bad enough that Tiara Mack, a “reproductive justice advocate” and “child sex educator” running for state senator in Rhode Island tweeted this in 2021: “Really excited for the house sex ed bill hearing later today. Teaching comprehensive, queer inclusive, pleasure-based sex ed was a highlight of my time teaching.” This is who wants to talk to your six-year-old about how to “pleasure” themselves and their partner! The first step in any cult, or any abusive relationship, is to get the victim to sever ties to their outside friends and family. Maybe you’ve seen this happen to people you know. They suddenly change their phone number, delete their social media, and have a new friend now—one that has them spellbound. Once children come to believe their mom and dad are clueless bigots and racists who are holding them back from being who they are, the cult leaders own them. Government-run public schools have accomplished “regime change” in America and transformed us, slowly, from a society centered around the family, where the schools work for the parent, into a society centered around government employees, where families are required to supply the raw goods for the teachers’ unions to mold as they see fit. Year after year, their assembly lines have been left unsupervised to churn out freshly minted graduates. These graduates move on to college, where their high school indoctrination is hardened and polished by professors. The end product is a citizen who will go to his grave believing a set of Ministry of Truth–approved lies: “whiteness” is intrinsically evil, abortion is health care, there are dozens of genders, America was founded on racism and must be dismantled, marriage is oppressive and bad for women, children hold you back, and unchecked sexual “exploration” with a variety of partners of every gender is the surest path to emotional happiness. Sane people have a terrible choice to make: exercise parental authority over what their children are taught and risk financial ruin, social blackballing, and permanent cancellation—or allow their kids to be turned against them. When a teacher or government official replaces the parent as the ultimate authority in the child’s life, all bets are off. Educators know that any adult with the authority to influence a child has the power to expose said child to any radical or extreme ideas they want. To them, you are the extremist if you don’t think young children need to learn about sex and gender dysphoria yet. You are the extremist if you question a teacher or school administrator’s choice of books to read or lessons to teach. You are an extremely racist extremist if you’d rather not force a five-year-old to feel bad about the color of his skin and apologize for it. In California, students in middle school can ask their school to change their names and genders in the school computer system, and the school is not permitted to inform the parents. The school authorities and the teachers are legally allowed to conspire with eleven-year-olds in sixth grade to induct them into a cult and keep it secret. Literally “it’ll be our secret,” a classic groomer move. These government educational bureaucrats may not drive window-less vans and carry dirty magazines and candy bars to lure young boys (although let’s be honest, some do), but they are even more dangerous. Any parents who send a child into an environment like this, either knowingly or blindly, are forfeiting their authority over their kid. The Regime’s child-catchers are prowling the locker rooms and cafeterias looking for lost, confused pre-teens to cart off to Pleasure Island, where they can get transformed into donkeys without their parents’ consent. I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney is working on a new version of Pinocchio where he asks the Blue Fairy to turn him into a real girl. Parental Surrender Too many sentient adults seem to simply wait for a new update to the operating system to decide what to do with their kids. They unquestioningly accept the Current Parenting Thing, the rancid gruel served up as “education” at the local public school. They surrender their kids to the authorities, in all their forms: teachers, principals, pediatricians, drag queens reading stories, social media influencers, YouTubers, Disney, Netflix, TikTok, the Kardashians—anyone who is credentialed as a “kid expert” or “important” now holds more sway over American kids than their own mothers and fathers. “Who am I to tell my kids how to behave, or what to learn, or how to think about the world? I’m just a random person who had a baby. I made plenty of mistakes in my life. How can I possibly ask my children to obey me?” This is why we can’t have nice things. This is why healthy toddlers were kept in COVID masks for two years while they sat in sandboxes alone, outside, in rain or sleet. This is why you see massive brawls happening at middle schools, where kids punch their own teachers. This is why children are indoctrinated into the cult of trans, coached and groomed to say their pronouns, to switch genders, to explore various “sexualities” and “identities.” This is why mothers pimp out their own children as “drag kids” and put little boys in princess dresses and post the photos on Instagram while thousands of likes wash over them. This is what abdicating the parenting throne looks like. Childless weirdos have taken over every institution we look to for guidance on how to raise good citizens, and no, I’m not talking about Catholic priests. It has become only too clear what this absence of parental authority has wrought. Truly insane people have taken over the American education system, Big Pharma, and Big Tech. They know the best way to reach the Final Solution of the American family is to focus on young, impressionable minds. We are enjoying the fruits of their labor now: an explosion of teen depression and suicide, an epidemic of children who are confused if they’re boys or girls, and an incredible 40 percent of Gen Z reporting that they are some letter in the ever-expanding alphabet soup known as LGBTQ+. Everywhere, in every way, the fertile, fallow minds of children are being terraformed by people who identify as “fur baby” parents. I wouldn’t let fur baby parents walk my dog, let alone educate my eight-year-old. Authority Atrophied This is why you must exercise your parental authority early and often. You must speak up! “No, I don’t want you to ask my teenage son if he’s comfortable with his gender during his doctor visit.” “No, you can’t wear your sister’s Elsa dress to school today, because boys don’t wear dresses, now get in the car and never ask me that again.” “No, you can’t buy those shorts that display the entire lower half of your rear end.” “No, you can’t have a TikTok account, and if I find it on your phone, say goodbye to the phone.” Parental authority makes you the heavy in the house and the bouncer at the door. Pull on your big boy pants and lay down the law, or the law is going to lay down all over you. Peachy Keenan is author of Domestic Extremist: A Practical Guide to Winning the Culture War. Tyler Durden Wed, 06/07/2023 - 16:40.....»»
Ten Great Lessons From “Double Indemnity”
Criterion Collection, fount of classic cinema for home entertainment, has restored and reissued, in Blu-ray 4K Ultra-High Definition, Billy Wilder’s ... Read more Criterion Collection, fount of classic cinema for home entertainment, has restored and reissued, in Blu-ray 4K Ultra-High Definition, Billy Wilder’s “Double Indemnity,” the seminal film noir based upon James M. Cain’s bestselling novella of illicit love, insurance fraud and brutal murder. Novelist Cain, an insurance salesman who never sold a policy, joined a flock of reporters attending the sensational 1927 trial of Ruth Snyder and Judd Gray, New York’s infamous adulterous lovers who, in a frenzy of lust, liquor and greed, cruelly murdered Ruth’s abusive husband, Albert, staging a home burglary to trigger the “double indemnity” provision of an insurance policy Ruth fraudulently procured for the unfortunate Albert. This true crime story became the tabloid sensation of the year, as the once impassioned duo clumsily betrayed each other at trial. All to no avail: Snyder and Gray were convicted of murder in the first degree and died, serially, in Sing Sing’s electric chair. Ruth’s death throes were famously and illicitly captured by hidden camera, strapped to a reporter’s leg, producing a grainy snuff photo promptly shot ‘round the world. (No link here, folks.) From this dark plot Cain distilled two bestselling novellas: “The Postman Always Rings Twice” and “Double Indemnity.” Both immorality tales were long deemed “unfilmable” under the Hayes Code, the self-imposed film industry standard introduced in 1934 to stem the increasingly flagrant portrayal of sin and crime in American motion pictures. Ten years later Billy Wilder, undeterred, teamed with famed pulp fiction writer Raymond Chandler and, through sly dialogue and clever scene-building, granted viewers full license to imagine what could not be filmed in his 1944 production of “Double Indemnity.” Eight decades have not diminished “Double Indemnity’s” impact: the gritty plot and credible characters offer timeless lessons in human nature and, as Billy Wilder said of his years in the hotel trade, “none of them favorable.” Spoiler alerts apply! 1) “Insurance Companies Do Not Grow Rich By Paying Claims” – Torts Class, Law School, Day 1 In every casino and corner store in America a mathematically-challenged public busily places bad bets. Sucker bets. Bets they’re almost bound to lose. Not so insurance companies: their actuaries and executives choose bets with care and caution, wary of fraudsters, adverse odds and sly gamblers. As “Double Indemnity” opens, wounded, blood-soaked Fred MacMurray, as Walter Neff, veteran insurance salesman, hobbles into the shuttered offices of his employer, Pacific All-Risk, where a lonesome, aged night watchman proffers the first insurance lesson of “Double Indemnity:” “They wouldn’t ever sell me any [insurance]. They say there’s something loose in my heart. I say it’s rheumatism.” Insurers shun bad bets, like good health in old age. So in 1965 Congress passed Medicare. 2) Fred MacMurray, Vocals & Tenor Sax Fred MacMurray, “Double Indemnity’s” ever-engaging antihero, began his entertainment career as saxophonist and “boy singer” for Gus Arnheim and his Coconut Grove Orchestra, whose featured vocalist was none other than Bing Crosby. Catch Fred, circa 1929: MacMurray’s mellifluous voice and warm tone carried over into his more successful stint as light comic film actor, alongside such greats as Bing’s soon-to-be-“Road Picture” partner, Bob Hope. So it was typical daring for Billy Wilder to cast MacMurray against type as a glad-handing insurance salesman turned all-too-eager dupe and accomplice of a femme fatale, a role MacMurray at first resisted but later admitted was his finest, enshrining him as an eternal icon of film noir. 3) Barbara Stanwyck, Brooklyn Orphan Like Fred MacMurray, Barbara Stanwyck, one of classic Hollywood’s most versatile actresses, initially resisted Billy Wilder’s invitation to portray Phyllis Dietrichson, murderous private duty nurse in plush early retirement, scheming to eliminate her cranky husband in an insurance scam, after first disposing of her previous sickly charge, his late wife. Wilder bluntly asked wary Stanwyck : “Are you an actress or a mouse?” Stanwyck took the challenge and, in a Mona Lisa-worthy close-up, savors her husband’s slow murder, becoming a noir icon herself. But this was not Stanwyck’s first outing as femme fatale. Barbara Stanwyck came up hard. Orphaned at 4, abandoned by her widowed father and raised by siblings, she dropped out of high school and worked odd jobs until becoming a Ziegfield girl at 16. Stanwyck rose to fame on Broadway, then on to Hollywood where she was featured in tough girl roles culminating in “Baby Face” (1933), starring as an impoverished beauty, cruelly pimped out from age fourteen by a brutal father, whom she watches die in a fire, wearing the same chilling poker face she would don in “Double Indemnity.” Under the tutelage of the only man she trusts, an elderly German cobbler who quotes Nietszche, Baby Face hops a freight to New York to ply her erotic skills, rising quickly from beta to alpha males, in a corpse-strewn hike up the corporate ladder. When her devoted husband nearly joins her growing list of love-sick suicides she is awkwardly redeemed, cradling him in an ambulance as the movie closes. This pre-Code Zanuck sizzler, which all but begged the Hayes Code into being, can be viewed complete at the Internet Archive. Less well-known is another grim pre-code Stanwyck star turn, “Night Nurse” (1931). Here, in her first portrayal of a fetching RN, she struggles heroically to save two innocent children from medical murder by an unholy trio, including Clark Gable as a sociopathic chauffeur, eying the youngsters’ trust fund. Stanwyck’s performance is strong but the film forgettable. Like Mae West, when Stanwyck is bad, she’s better. And best when good and bad, as in the hilarious Preston Sturges screwball comedy, “The Lady Eve:” 3) Sociopaths Are Sexy “A lot of people are wearing signs: ‘Danger! Danger! Do Not Touch!’ And people just charge right ahead.” – Charlie Munger Disinhibition, the relaxation of inhibitions through elevated mood, licit or illicit pharmacology, or flat-out sociopathy, is exciting, disturbingly attractive, romantic, even erotic. We are drawn to disinhibited people and they feature prominently in media, politics and entertainment. Also in sales, entrepreneurship and, notably, crime. When insurance salesman Walter Neff first encounters his widowed client’s young second wife, Phyllis Dietrichson, wearing nothing but a towel, a tan and an anklet, the sensation-seeking bachelor is entranced. Walter excitedly overplays his hand: Phyllis slaps it and Walter promptly exits, chastened. But Phyllis lures Walter back, ostensibly concerned for her husband’s safety working in the California oil fields. She would have less “worry” if he carried accident insurance, albeit purchased without his knowledge and against his wishes. Now it is Phyllis who has overplayed her hand, as Walter bridles: “Who’d you think I was, anyway? A guy that walks into a good-looking dame’s front parlor and says ‘Good afternoon, I sell accident insurance on husbands. You got one that’s been around too long? Somebody you’d like to turn into a little hard cash? Just give me a smile and I’ll help you collect.’ Boy, what a dope you must think I am!” Like a true sociopath Phyllis blames Walter for the “misunderstanding” and orders him out. But Phyllis is not done with Walter. She will offer more than a “smile,” an offer he cannot refuse. 5) Lust Buries Wisdom – Yiddish Maxim (Hayes Code compliant) That night Phyllis arrives unannounced at Walter’s bachelor flat. They share drinks and Walter recounts how murderous would-be merry widows receive their comeuppance from watchful insurers—not disinterested police—and end up in Tehachapi, then a women’s prison. “Perhaps it was worth it to her,” muses Phyllis. They retire to the couch and embrace. A telling time lapse bypasses Code restrictions and Walter enjoys a now-vanishing act, the post-coital cigarette, while Phyllis applies fresh lipstick. Thus through an unseen erotic epiphany, Walter has, like a prospective cult follower, “snapped,” spellbound by a femme fatale. And Phyllis arises from the couch wearing a satisfied smile, not of eros but conquest. For Walter will now do her bidding: an unimpeachable but fraudulent accident insurance policy on Mr. Dietrichson, now a marked man. 6) “Whenever You Can, Count” – Francis Galton Long before “The Odd Couple’s” Felix Unger and Oscar Madison there were Barton Keyes and Walter Neff. Barton Keyes (Edward G. Robinson), Pacific All-Risk’s oddly engaging obsessive-compulsive Claims Manager, “a wolf on a phony claim,” is so careful he has never married, having investigated “the dame,” his bride-to-be, and found her to be the bottle-blonde divorcee of a professional pool player. So childless Keyes sees in his beloved fellow bachelor, Walter, an heir to his throne as Claims Manager. For Keyes loves Walter like a son, a love that blinds him, like any proud parent, to Walter’s true character. Though Walter is as intelligent as Keyes believes, unlike Keyes, staunch guardian of Pacific All-Risk, Walter is hedonistic and amoral, and would gladly game the company, biting the hand that has fed him over many bleak years of The Great Depression. So Walter and Phyllis proceed to tag-team and snooker the eminently dislikable Dietrichson into completing a policy application he thinks covers his autos but actually insures his life: Dietrichson has unknowingly signed his own death warrant. After two short weeks the ever more gruesome twosome murder Dietrichson and dump his body on railroad tracks, faking a fall from the observation deck of a train, engaging the double indemnity provision of the bogus policy. The actuarial unlikelihood of accidental death on a train, promptly upon policy purchase, and without a train accident, puts Keyes on alert. Not for the suicide which Mr. Norton, the Fredo-esque scion of Pacific All Risk, suggests to an outraged Phyllis, who balks and walks, but for an as yet undiscovered reason, the search for which will soon plague Keyes gastrointestinally. Norton’s fumbled attempt to void the policy also grants Keyes the priceless opportunity to skewer his befuddled boss with a breathtaking display of forensic wisdom, but also betrays the depths of Keyes’ narcissistic overconfidence that will yet undo him: (Nota bene: foolish Norton is later redeemed, see #10 below.) 7) “Not Everything That Counts Can Be Counted” – attributed to Albert Einstein Keyes knows the odds are too long, the fact pattern too bizarre to be true: “Something has been worked on us.” His troubled gut finally intuits “Murder! And murders don’t come any neater! With an accomplice. But Keyes’ blind spot for Walter, his unshakeable trust in his metaphorical son, persistently stalls his progress in locating “the somebody else.” Mistakes are borne of blind spots: eliminate blind spots and eliminate mistakes. Keyes will only gain an unobstructed view of the Dietrichson claim as his beloved Walter lies dying before him. But Keyes’ narcissism—“Walter, I’m a very great man!”—bars Keyes, even at movie’s climax, from acknowledging poor judgment: “You can’t figure them all, Walter.” 8) “The Police Are Boring.” – Alfred Hitchcock As with Snyder and Gray, in real life solid police work would swiftly conclude Dietrichson was strangled in a struggle; any contusions from the “fall” onto the tracks clearly post-mortem. But that is not the boring story Wilder wishes to tell. Likewise the cinematic murder strains credibility: Dietrichson would surely spot or sense physically formidable Neff hiding behind the “death seat.” Even if, arguendo, Dietrichson were totally preoccupied with his alumni meeting, as a former college football guard, he would doubtless have fought longer and harder for his life. Walter, no made-man a la Peter Clemenza, murders too facilely to be true. Indeed, amateurs Snyder and Gray had a long and terrible time murdering poor Albert. But like a trained magician, Wilder turns our attention away from the ghoulish event to Walter’s “lovely assistant:” Phyllis, in full-face close-up, as she savors revenge, newfound freedom and a payday: $100,000 tax-free, two million dollars in today’s money. Thus “Double Indemnity” never challenges the true purpose of the Hayes Code: to shutter nascent cinema’s school for scoundrels. And, to be sure, Wilder keeps Hitchcock’s “boring” police from mucking up the plot. As Keyes, past master of incentive-based fraud, assures, “They’re satisfied. It’s not their dough.” 9) Obsessives Repel as Sociopaths Attract Movie and TV obsessive-compulsives, like Barton Keyes and Felix Unger, rise to lovability through clever writing and bravura performance: Edward G. Robinson and Tony Randall are a joy to behold. But real-life obsessive-compulsives are typically off-putting: demanding and sometimes maddeningly self-obsessed. With no insight into their behavior they can be imperious and self-justifying. As with the Algonquinesque critic obsessed with beautiful Gene Tierney, star of “Laura” (1944). Conscientiousness, like intelligence, often yields life success, but obsessiveness, with its profound loss of perspective—not seeing the forest for the trees—may delimit success, prevent or, worse, destroy it. 10) Three Blind Spots: Love, Pride and Prejudice “The greatest lesson in life to learn is that fools are right sometimes.”—Winston Churchill “No man is wise at all times or without his blind side.”—Erasmus In true noir fashion the most grievously harmed in “Double Indemnity” are not the wronged dead but the pained living, bearing the never-healing wounds of misencounters with the bad and beautiful. In “Double Indemnity” there is none so traumatized as little Lola Dietrichson, only child twice orphaned, who still loves would-be patsy, Italian-American Nino Zachetti, whom her parents’ murderer, Phyllis, is grooming to take the fall. Or worse yet, commit the passion-killing of Lola, eliminating a dangerous witness. Lola is so undone by grief she confesses to Walter, whom she so innocently trusts, that she believes Nino and Phyllis murdered her father. Her crie de coeur is unforgettable: “I still love him!” Neff, for his part, is grateful to see clouds of suspicion gathering around this born suspect, hot-headed child of immigrants, easily rigged for the part. Yet for all her innocence and blindness it is Lola who unlocks the Dietrichson case for us as she reveals to a stunned Neff that Phyllis is, in reality, a serial killer. (Indeed, in the original novella, Nurse Phyllis has murdered-for-hire disabled children in a clinic owned and operated by Nino’s physician father, destroying the elder Zachetti’s good name and reputation.) And for all his bluster and stupidity it is Norton whose highly practical proposal to have Walter investigated is thwarted by ever-faithful Keyes. Foolish Norton would have “busted” the Dietrichson case “wide open” but for Keyes’ blind spot for Neff. In scenes scripted and shot but wisely deleted from the final film, a grieving Keyes attends Walter’s execution in San Quentin’s gas chamber. As described in the script, the movie closes as Keyes leaves the infamous prison “a forlorn and lonely man.” For not unlike the lord he imagined himself to be, Keyes must endure the cruel sacrifice of his one beloved son......»»
David Einhorn"s hedge fund crushed the S&P 500 last year. These are the 3 stocks he"s counting on for continued outperformance.
David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital returned 36.6% last year thanks to a combination of successful short bets and a portfolio of value-oriented stocks. David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital Inc. Founder and President, at the 20th Annual Sohn Investment Conference in New York City on May 4, 2015.Adam Jeffery/CNBC/NBCU Photo Bank/NBCUniversal via Getty ImagesDavid Einhorn's hedge fund crushed the stock market last year, returning 37% compared to the S&P 500's loss of almost 20%.Greenlight Capital found success in shorting speculative tech stocks and owning value-oriented companies last year.These are three stocks Einhorn is bullish on as he seeks to continue his outperformance in 2023.After a multi-year stretch of underperformance, Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn bounced back with a vengeance in 2022. Einhorn's $1.4 billion hedge fund delivered a return of nearly 37% last year, trouncing the S&P 500's loss of just under 20%.In an interview with CNBC this week, Einhorn attributed his outperformance to shorting highly speculative and unprofitable tech stocks that were popular with retail investors during the COVID-induced stock market boom of 2020 and 2021, as well as owning a long portfolio of boring, value-oriented companies.Some of the companies Einhorn owns represent deep discount buys, with many getting more disciplined about returning cash to shareholders.These are the three stocks Einhorn owns and pitched as long positions in a recent CNBC interview, as he seeks to continue his trend of outperformance in 2023. The data is according to SEC filings and as of December 31, 2022. 1. Tenent HealthcareER Productions Limited/Getty ImagesTicker: THCPercentage of portfolio: 2.3%Change in shares last quarter: New positionBullish thesis: "Tenent Healthcare is a hospital operator. They ran into some trouble last year with labor shortages. They missed earnings and so forth. We saw that the multiple is in the single digits, the business appears to be relatively stable and recession resistant. People go to the hospital and get sick either way. And you have a company that's now beginning to really return capital to shareholders. I think they have a $1 billion buyback against a $6 billion market cap. So when you see that kind of opportunity, we took a medium sized position," Einhorn said.2. Consol EnergyA worker operates a JCB machine to load coal onto a goods train at the Amrapali coal mines in Peeparwar in India's Jharkhand state on April 30, 2022.AFP/Getty ImagesTicker: CEIXPercentage of portfolio: 8.2%Change in shares last quarter: +99,830 (+5%)Bullish thesis: "Everybody hates coal, so here's the story. The company has no debt, it's worth about $2 billion, there's one analyst who covers the company. I think they're going to have about $800 or $900 million of free cash flow this year. Possibly the same amount again the following year. So pretty much the free cash flow is going to equal the whole value of the company between this year and next year. They have no debt, so we expect they're going to be buying back [stock] and returning that capital. So within a couple years we expect to get pretty much all of our money back. And they'll still have 30 years of reserves of coal in the ground," Einhorn said.3. Teck ResourcesFILE PHOTO: Visitors pass a logo of Teck Resources Ltd mining company during the PDAC convention in TorontoReutersTicker: TECKPercentage of portfolio: 5.9%Change in shares last quarter: +72,320 (+3%)Bullish thesis: "They're going to buy their [metallurgical] coal business from their metals business. And they did it through a spinoff in a really clever way, where most of the cash flows for the next number of years are still going to go to the metal business even though they're going to come from the met coal business, and I think if we're going to have all of this electrification, we're going to need a lot more copper. And that's really where the metals piece of the business is. It trades at a not exciting high single digit multiple of earnings, and I think that there's very little copper supply coming on in the intermediate term... If we're going to have all of these electric vehicles, we're going to need a lot more copper. So I'm really bullish on copper prices over the intermediate-term and I think Teck Resources will be a good beneficiary of that," Einhorn said.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»
Futures Slide, Yields Jump On Higher For Longer Concerns
Futures Slide, Yields Jump On Higher For Longer Concerns US stock futures fell for the second day amid deepening geopolitical tensions, and as investors awaited data this week that may show stickier core inflation, prompting expectations for more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Futures contracts on the S&P 500 dropped 0.7%, while those on the Nasdaq 100 were down 0.9% as of 7:45 a.m. in New York, after the cash market was closed on Monday for a public holiday. Treasury yields jumped, with the 10Y rising as high as 3.89%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index retreated from the day’s highs, and the pound led gains among Group-of-10 currencies after UK companies reported surprise growth in output. In premarket trading, Manchester United shares rose as bid interest in the English Premier League club intensified over the weekend. Sigma Lithium jumped after Bloomberg News reported that Tesla has been weighing a takeover of the battery-metals miner. Walmart tumbled after the retailing giant's profit forecast for this year fell short of analyst estimates, signaling a cautious outlook for the world’s largest retailer after a 2022 performance that was marred by an inventory surge. Bank stocks are lower in premarket trading Tuesday as the US market is set to reopen following a holiday. Here are some other notable premarket movers: JD.com leads a decline in Chinese internet stocks in US premarket trading, after a South China Morning Post report that the e-commerce firm is launching a subsidy campaign to compete with PDD Holdings in a low-price product offering. Sigma Lithium (SGML US) rises as much as 27% after Bloomberg News reported that Tesla (TSLA US) has been weighing a takeover of the battery-metals miner. Tesla declines 0.9%. Manchester United (MANU US) shares jump 8.2% before paring gains as bid interest in the English Premier League club intensified over the weekend, with British billionaire Jim Ratcliffe submitting a bid, while Elliott Investment Management offered a proposal to provide financing. MarineMax (HZO US) shares rise 1.9% after B. Riley upgrades the boat retailer to buy from neutral, with the broker highlighting the company’s diversification push and opportunities arising from its real estate portfolio. Keep an eye on Generac Holdings (GNRC US) stock as its rating was cut to hold from buy at Truist Securities, which says high interest rates and product prices will pose a “meaningful risk” to the generator maker’s 2023 financials. Watch Caleres (CAL US) stock as it was raised to overweight from neutral at Piper Sandler after the footwear company’s preliminary 2022 results indicated structural earnings gains. BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN US) is started with a neutral recommendation at Citi, which in a note says that recent developments and expected progress for 2023 are already priced into the stock. After the underlying S&P benchmark fell last week, US stocks are likely to remain under pressure amid concerns that the Fed could keep rates higher for longer. Investors will be closely watching the US purchasing managers index, due on Tuesday, and Friday’s personal consumption expenditures data for an indication of the likely path of monetary policy. A start-of-the-year rally in global stocks has fizzled, and the dollar resumed gains, after central bankers reaffirmed their will to combat inflation. That, and a stubborn trend in prices, have pushed traders to factor in another 75 basis points of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve by July. They also pruned their bets for the first US rate cut: swaps now expect a 20 basis-point reduction by year-end, compared with a 50 basis-point move seen earlier this month. "The tone after the long weekend is more biased to the downside as investors adjust to a more hawkish path from central banks that’s coming into play,” said Karim Chedid, head of investment strategy for iShares EMEA at BlackRock Inc. “In the past week we started to see equity sentiment respond to that, and we expect that to continue this week.” Expensive US equities are flashing a warning sign that could see the S&P 500 sliding as much as 26% in the first half of this year, according to the latest weekly doom and gloom sermon by Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. The year-to-date rally in equities is “pure FOMO” — fear of missing out — at best, and the excitement is misplaced, they said. “The Fed are not signaling they will do anything different from what they have always said — but earlier, markets did not believe them,” said Fahad Kamal, chief investors officer at SG Kleinwort Hambros Bank. “The market was far too complacent at start of the year thinking there’ll be a pivot. Now the data has come in stronger, and the Fed hasn’t changed what they said. So we got a big rally earlier and then a bit of reversal.” European stocks drifted lower as Bank of America to JPMorgan predicted an end to their 2023 rally. European stocks were in the red although off their worst levels with the Stoxx 600 down 0.3% in wake of the morning's strong EZ PMI metrics which potentially give the ECB cover to tighten more aggressively. Euro Area Composite PMI (Feb, Flash): 52.3, consensus 50.7, last 50.3. Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (Feb, Flash): 48.5, consensus 49.3, last 48.8. Euro Area Services PMI (Feb, Flash): 53.0, consensus 51.0, last 50.8. France Composite PMI (Feb, Flash): 51.6, consensus 49.8, last 49.1. Germany Composite PMI (Feb, Flash): 51.1, consensus 50.3, last 49.9. UK Composite PMI (Feb, Flash): 53.0, consensus 49.0, last 48.5. And some Goldman commentary on the PMIs: The Euro area composite flash PMI increased by 2.0pt to 52.3 in February, well above consensus expectations. The increase in the composite index was broad-based across sectors, with manufacturing output surpassing the 50 threshold for the first time since May last year. Across countries, the improvement was led by France and the periphery, followed by Germany. In the UK, the composite flash PMI improved by 4.6pt to 53.0, also well above consensus expectations. We see three main takeaways from today’s data. First, even though the composite manufacturing index weakened, this decline was driven by an improvement in supply constraints as suppliers’ delivery times—which are included in the composite calculation with an inverse sign—recorded the largest monthly improvement outside the pandemic period and inventory stocks declined. Resilient demand in the services sector and easing supply constraints point to positive growth momentum in both the services and manufacturing sector, consistent with our above-consensus view on the Euro area growth outlook. Second, price pressures are moderating but services inflation remains sticky. Third, today’s notable upside surprise in the UK points to upside risk to our Q1 growth forecast but increases the likelihood of another 25bp hike at the upcoming MPC meeting, as we continue to expect. Tech, autos and miners are the worst performing sectors. Credit Suisse shares tumbled as much as 6.4% after Reuters reported that Switzerland’s financial regulator is reviewing comments from Chairman Axel Lehmann on outlows from the company having stabilized. Here are some of the notable European movers: SIG Group shares fall as much as 5%, the most since November, as Kepler Cheuvreux cuts the packaging firm to hold from buy, saying the stock now looks fairly valued ALSO shares fall as much as 6%, the most since August 2022, as analysts said the Swiss computer hardware and software wholesaler’s 2023 guidance is cautious and below expectations GB Group plunges as much as 13% after after projecting full-year profit that misses estimates with the fraud prevention company seeing longer sales cycles and challenging conditions InterContinental Hotels shares drop as much as 2.9% in London after the hotel operator’s full-year results, with Citi seeing the performance as slightly negative overall Worldline shares slip as much as 4.5%, erasing earlier gains, as Citi notes that the payment firm’s FY23 profitability was slightly weaker than consensus forecasts Straumann falls as much as 3.3%, erasing earlier gains, after its latest earnings slightly beat estimates, with analysts calling 2023 guidance from the dental implants-maker encouraging HSBC shares erase early losses, rising as much as 2.6%, after fourth-quarter results that showed profit that beat expectations but higher-than-expected costs ElringKlinger gains as much as 3.3% after the German car- parts maker posted what Warburg calls strong preliminary results Rovi gains as much as 7.4%, the most since Sept. 2021, after the specialty pharmaceuticals company released results which beat on strong contract manufacturing organization revenue The Stoxx 600 will end the year 2% lower than Friday’s close, according to the average target in a Bloomberg survey of forecasters. Bank of America strategist Milla Savova said a temporary boost to the region’s economy will fade as the full impact of monetary tightening materializes, while earnings forecasts will get downgraded. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also fell as investors awaited earnings from China’s major tech companies and minutes from the US Federal Reserve later this week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.9%, with China’s tech shares among the biggest laggards. JD.com led declines following a report that the e-commerce firm is planning a subsidy campaign as it ratchets up a price war against rivals. While China’s benchmark recovered from intraday losses, the Hang Seng Index continued its slide toward a technical correction, down more than 9% since peaking late last month. Investors are looking ahead to reports from tech behemoths Alibaba and Baidu later this week. MSCI’s Asia index has broken below its 50-day moving average for the first time since August amid concerns the Federal Reserve will keep raising rates to quell inflation. Fed minutes are scheduled to be released Wednesday. “If we’re seeing higher implied volatility in interest rates – as options trader’s price higher degrees of movement -then that should spill over into higher volatility in the USD and equity markets too,” Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group, wrote in a note. “This is the biggest risk to the markets we’re facing now.” Japanese stocks ended lower as investors await for clues on the next moves by the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve. The Topix Index fell 0.1% to 1,997.46 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei declined 0.2% to 27,473.10. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 1.5%. Out of 2,163 stocks in the index, 1,185 rose and 867 fell, while 111 were unchanged. “It’s difficult for domestic investors to move, ahead of the hearing of Mr. Ueda, who was nominated as the BOJ governor,” said Ryuta Otsuka, a strategist at Toyo Securities. Australian stocks also declined: the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.2% to close at 7,336.30, dragged by losses in banks and real estate names. Stocks around Asia declined as investors mulled the prospect of central banks tightening policy more than previously expected to tame inflation. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.8% to 11,801.49 In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.4% before paring, though it remained within recent days’ ranges. The greenback traded higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the pound and the Swedish krona. The pound rallied after data showed UK private-sector business activity expanded in February, defying forecasts for another month of contraction. Here are some notable moves: The euro fell a second day to a low of 1.0643, before paring. The currency shrugged off German ZEW expectations, which rose to 28.1 in February, versus estimate 23.0. Other data showed euro-area business activity rose at the fastest rate in nine months in February. The euro’s volatility term structure versus the dollar has been inverted since January 2022 and hedge funds are betting that normalization is due for a return The pound flipped to gains against the dollar and gilt yields surged as markets added to pricing of future BOE hikes after British companies unexpectedly reported the first growth in seven months in PMI data. Earlier, public finance figures showed borrowing since the fiscal year that began in April is running £22 billion below the level forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility The Swedish krona rose versus the euro and the dollar, outperforming Group-of-10 peers, after Riksbank Deputy Governor Martin Floden described underlying inflation in January as worrying. Separately, Swedish long-term inflation expectations fell in the latest Prospera survey, signaling that money market participants are strengthening in their belief that the Riksbank will succeed in bringing soaring price increases down closer to its target Japan’s benchmark yield briefly rose above the central bank’s ceiling for the first time since its January meeting as traders continued to bet on further policy tweaks. The Australian dollar gave up an advance and sovereign bonds pared declines. Bonds earlier fell after the Reserve Bank’s meeting minutes showed that the central bank also considered a 50 basis-point hike to the 25 basis-point one it delivered In rates, Treasuries slid across the curve and were under pressure as US trading resumes after long weekend, trailing steeper declines for gilts sparked by stronger-than-forecast UK PMI gauges for February. Treasury yields are higher by 4bp-7bp across the curve, still inside Friday’s ranges which included YTD highs for all tenors except 20Y. Treasury auction cycle begins with $42b 2-year note sale at 1pm that’s poised to draw the highest yield since 2007. WI 2-year yield 4.64%; current issue traded as high as 4.713% Friday, within 9bp of last year’s multiyear high, as traders fully priced in a Fed rate hike in May to follow expected increase in March In commodities, oil futures witnessed a choppy session as investors weighed the possibility of further monetary tightening against signs of improving demand from China. A gain in West Texas Intermediate futures reflected catch-up trades as there had been no settlement on Monday. WTI rose 0.9% to trade near $77.10 while Brent drops 0.3% to trade around $83.80. Spot gold falls roughly 0.4% to $1,833. In crypto, bitcoin held around the $25k handle within fairly narrow parameters awaiting the re-entry of US participants after Monday's market holiday. Looking to the day ahead, we have a number of data releases today, but the main highlight will be the global flash PMIs for February. In other data releases, we will have the US February Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity release, January existing house sales, UK January public finances, the Germany and Eurozone February ZEW survey, France January retail sales, EU27 January new car registrations and in Canada, the January CPI and December retail sales. Finally, earnings releases include Walmart, Home Depot, Medtronic and Palo Alto Networks. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.7% to 4,058.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 463.44 MXAP down 0.8% to 162.43 MXAPJ down 0.9% to 528.89 Nikkei down 0.2% to 27,473.10 Topix down 0.1% to 1,997.46 Hang Seng Index down 1.7% to 20,529.49 Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,306.52 Sensex little changed at 60,678.01 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,336.30 Kospi up 0.2% to 2,458.96 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.47% Euro down 0.2% to $1.0664 Brent Futures down 1.2% to $83.02/bbl Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,834.74 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.15% to 104.02 Top Overnight News President Vladimir Putin issued a defiant message on his war in Ukraine, vowing to continue the faltering invasion until Russia has achieved its goals: BBG “Frustrating,” “very annoying” and “left in the dark.” These and similar expressions have been used to describe the near month-long blackout on key global investor positioning reports that cover bets on everything from Treasuries to soybean futures — the casualty of a ransomware attack on financial firm ION Trading UK: BBG China tech leaders from firms such as Tencent, NetEast, Bidu, Didi, and others, met with senior officials from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) to discuss ways to advance the interests of the tech industry. SCMP China is no longer viable as the world’s factory according to the head of Kyocera, a critical Japanese tech firm, due to Western restrictions on Beijing’s access to advanced technology (“the business model of producing in China and exporting abroad is no longer viable”). FT China is increasingly concerned that Russia, which it considers a key partner in Beijing’s quest to contain and counter the US, is being permanently weakened by Putin’s misguided war in Ukraine, and so is pushing for a ceasefire in the conflict. WSJ Europe’s flash PMIs for February were net positive, with encouraging growth details (especially in services) and an inflation slowdown (inflation notably cooled in manufacturing); UK flash PMIs for Feb were bullish, with solid upside on growth (the composite reading came in at 52, up from 48.5 in Jan and above the St’s 49 consensus) and cooling inflation (“Feb data pointed to the slowest overall increase in average cost burdens since April 2021”). S&P Iran – UN nuclear inspectors have detected uranium in Iran enriched to near weapons-grade (84% purity vs. the 90% required for weapons), a potential major escalatory step in the country’s nuclear program. WSJ Credit Suisse shares slump in Europe on reports that Swiss financial regulators are looking into reassuring remarks made by chairman Axel Lehmann about outflows at the company stabilizing. RTRS US fiscal stimulus to fade further – one of the last fiscal stimulus programs related to COVID, enhanced food stamps, is about to come to an end, creating headwinds for Walmart, Kroger, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, etc. (and the expiration of this program could have a dampening effect on food inflation too). WSJ Google's $168 billion online ad business will be in focus when arguments are heard today on whether internet companies are liable for the content their algos recommend to users. The Supreme Court case may affect automated ads that hand Facebook and Google the bulk of their revenue. BBG Home Depot's US comp sales fell less than expected but overall like-for-likes missed. It forecast profit will fall in the mid-single digits as it spends $1 billion to increase wages for sales staff. Shares slipped. Coming up, Walmart's same-store sales growth may exceed its 3% guidance after a strong holiday season and a rise in cost-conscious shopping. Inventory-clearing markdowns and higher input costs may weigh on margin recovery. BBG A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks were subdued with trade mostly kept rangebound in the absence of a lead from Wall Street. ASX 200 traded lower amid a deluge of earnings releases including a decline in BHP's profits. Nikkei 225 was contained after mixed PMI data in which Manufacturing PMI declined by the fastest pace in two and a half years although Services PMI showed a firmer expansion. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with Hong Kong dragged lower by tech losses, while the mainland was just kept afloat amid strength in developers after China launched an investment pilot for the property sector. Top Asian News UK Foreign Secretary Cleverly said he spoke with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and raised human rights abuses in Xinjiang and the need for peace in the Taiwan Strait during the call, according to Reuters. RBA Minutes from the February meeting noted that the board considered a hike of 25bps or 50bps and that a pause was not an option. RBA said there were arguments in favour of both options but it concluded that the case to increase the Cash Rate by 25bps was the stronger one and the Board also agreed further increases would be needed over the months ahead. Furthermore, the RBA noted that monthly meetings allowed for frequent adjustments and that rates have already risen substantially, while it stated the Board will do what is needed to return inflation to the target and that data suggested more breadth and persistence in inflation than expected. China's Politburo discussed reforms to party and state organisations, according to state media. Iron Ore Piles Up at South African Mines on Rail Bottlenecks Gold Declines as Traders Await Fed Minutes for Rate Clues China Leaders Pledge Stronger Growth as Recovery Takes Hold European bourses, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%, & US futures, ES -0.7%, remain negative but have lifted from the sessions' trough that printed in wake of the morning's EZ PMI metrics which potentially give the ECB cover to tighten more aggressively. The FTSE 100 was dragged lower in tandem though remained somewhat resilient to the strong UK PMIs, which sparked a hawkish re-pricing for 25bp in March from the BoE, with a yield-induced turnaround in HSBC (+2.0%) now proving supportive after initial post-guidance pressure. Stateside, futures are lower with the above drivers factoring after Monday's holiday and ahead of the week's key events via FOMC Minutes and PCE; modest further pressure seen post-HD earnings, though futures remain off earlier lows. Home Depot Inc (HD) Q4 2022 (USD): EPS 3.21 (exp. 3.28), Revenue 35.719bln (exp. 35.97bln); boosts dividend 10%. -2.8% in pre-market trade Top European News BoE Deputy Governor Woods said he will consult on changes to UK insurance capital rules in June and September, while he added that insurers will have a very good sense of what the changes to capital rules will be by year-end, according to Reuters. UK PM Sunak was warned not to undermine Northern Ireland and that an N.I. deal could trigger resignations, according to The Times. Germany's tax revenues rose 0.8% Y/Y, which was driven by higher sales taxes and wages taxes, according to the Finance Ministry. Hungary's EU funds negotiator said access to the grants and cheap loans could be delayed until the summer (vs prior April guidance) to resolve remaining issues with Brussels over democratic reforms. Enagas Sees 2023 Net Income EU310M to EU320M UK Companies Unexpectedly Show First Output Growth in Six Months; UK Feb. Flash Services PMI 53.3; Est 49.2 Iron Ore Piles Up at South African Mines on Rail Bottlenecks Manchester United Shares Advance as Bid Interest Intensifies Putin Defiant as Struggling Ukraine Invasion Nears Second Year FX DXY has derived support from upside in US yields, risk aversion and a loss of momentum in some FX peers, with the index holding around 104.00 despite being pressured to a 103.86 trough post UK PMI data. A release which sent GBP/USD to a 1.2113 peak from circa. 1.2000 before hand in a marked hawkish move which also allowed peers, ex-EUR, to trim some downside vs the USD, though this dynamic has since eased. For the EUR, despite hitting a 1.0688 peak following the French PMIs the single currency has failed to hold onto this upside with EUR/GBP action weighing. JPY is the incremental laggard given unfavourable yield dynamics for JGBs vs USTs/EGBS while antipodeans have faded amid domestic data for the NZD and despite hawkish RBA minutes for the AUD; currently, around 134.65, 0.623 & 0.688 respectively. SEK continues to lift amid further hawkish rhetoric and continuing emphasis on the currency from officials, with EUR/SEK briefly moving below 11.00. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8557 vs exp. 6.8550 (prev. 6.8643) Fixed Income Core benchmarks are ultimately pressured despite initial gyrations around geopolitics and PMIs; Bunds at 134.60 within 134,32-134.97 boundaries. Gilts are the stand-out laggard following UK Flash PMIs which saw a hawkish re-pricing of market expectations for a 25bp BoE hike in March increase to over 95% from the low-80s before hand; UK supply due. Stateside, USTs are softer in tandem with the above narrative with yields elevated and the move fairly broad-based across the curve ahead of Biden and supply. Commodities WTI and Brent April futures have experienced a choppy Tuesday session thus far and are currently modestly firmer as broader sentiment eases and Putin concludes his speech, despite being initially pressured below USD 76.00/bbl and USD 83/bbl respectively. Iran set March Iranian light crude price to Asia at Oman/Dubai +USD 2.00/bbl, according to a Reuters source. Russian Deputy PM Novak says oil output reductions in March will be from January levels, according to Interfax; Oil output reduction decision was only made for March. Expects discount on Urals to decrease. Novak has previously said that Russian crude production for January was between 9.8-9.9mln BPD. Caspian pipeline consortium is reportedly to suspend crude shipments due to poor weather, via Reuters citing sources. Iraq's oil minister says new licensing deals will produce 250k BPD of crude, according to the State News Agency. NatGas benchmarks are softer on both sides of the pond, though the magnitude of downside is fairly modest, with broader sentiment dictating price action. Spot gold is weighed on by the USD, though the downside is minimal in nature given its traditional haven allure while base metals are mixed overall. Geopolitics Russian President Putin says we will decide on the tasks of the special military operation step-by-step, the West is seeking to change local conflict into a global one. The next steps to strengthen the army and navy should take into account the experience of the special military operation. Expects to enhance cooperation with India, Iran and Pakistan. Adds, if the US conducts nuclear tests then Russia will do the same. Ukrainian President Zelensky said he sees resolve from the US and President Biden to end Russian aggression this year and also stated that a world order based on rules, humanity and predictability depends on what happens now in Ukraine, according to Reuters. EU's Borrell said he is confident EU members will approve the next Russian sanctions package within the next hours or days and said the sanctions agreement should be reached before the end of the week. US Deputy Treasury Secretary Adeyemo says the US and allies are planning new sanctions this week to continue to isolate Russia over the war in Ukraine; additionally, 12 EU nations say Russia is transitioning into a full-on military economy, with a view to sustaining its war efforts, via Reuters citing a document. Belarus sees direct threats to its military security, according to Tass citing the Defence Ministry; adds, a significant grouping of the Ukrainian army is massed near its border. Will take adequate measures to respond to military provocations, intends to hold over 150 joint exercises with Russia in 2023. Ukrainian Presidential Aide says Ukrainian forces have the situation along the northern border under "special control". Japanese PM Kishida said they plan to pledge another USD 5.5bln in aid to Ukraine and announced that they will host a G7 summit meeting this Friday in which Ukrainian President Zelensky will be invited to join. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki separately announced to hold the G7 financial leaders meeting on February 23rd and will reaffirm a stern stance against Russia at the G7 meeting, while he added they will continue to closely coordinate with other countries on sanctions to achieve the ultimate goal of Russia's withdrawal from Ukraine, as well as noted that measures against Russia and support for Ukraine will be the main topics on the G7 agenda. China seeks to broker Russia-Ukraine peace and urged the world to stop saying Taiwan is next after Ukraine, according to Bloomberg. Senior aides of Israeli PM Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas have been conducting secret talks for almost two months in an effort to de-escalate rising tensions in the occupied West Bank, according to Axios sources. US Event Calendar 08:30: Feb. Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufactu, prior -6.5 09:45: Feb. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 47.4, prior 46.9 09:45: Feb. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 47.3, prior 46.8 09:45: Feb. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 47.5, prior 46.8 10:00: Jan. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 2.0%, prior -1.5% Central Bank Speakers Nothing on the calendar DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap If you interacted with me yesterday please disregard it (unless the advice proves correct) as I was a total zombie all day having been up all night the previous one with a sick dog (Brontë). My wife was up the previous night. Thankfully Brontë seems better and I slept from 830pm-445am last night. So I feel as fresh as a daisy this morning... albeit one that managed to dodge the lawn mower all summer and has just felt the first frost of the year at the end of September. Thankfully for me, markets had a quiet start to the week yesterday, with US markets closed, whilst in Europe, markets fluctuated between gains and losses over the day, with the STOXX 600 (-0.04%) modestly retreating, and 10yr bund yields (+1.9bps) advancing at the close after being lower most of the day. The quiet start to the week will break with the Eurozone, UK, Germany, France and US publishing their flash February PMIs over the course of today. The data momentum has been positive of late but it’s going to be hard for the next few months to assess where we should be at this stage of the cycle. There has no doubt been big improvements from gas price falls and loosening of financial conditions but we’re yet to see anything close to the full lag of monetary policy filter through to the US and Europe. If the war in Ukraine hadn’t happened and if financial conditions hadn’t collapsed for the first 9 months of last year due to the rates shock, then growth may still be quite strong at this point before the lag of a huge and rapid hiking cycle could kick in. So we have to be careful not to over interpret an improvement back to where we might normally be at this stage of a cycle and not confuse it with a sustainable soft landing. Japan has kicked off the PMI round with mixed readings. The nation’s manufacturing activity shrank for the fourth consecutive month, falling to a level of 47.4 from last month’s 48.9 – its largest decline since August 2020. On the otherside, the au Jibun Bank flash services PMI rose to an eight-month-high of 53.6 from 52.3 last month. Asian equity markets are mostly trading lower this morning as the prospect of the US Fed staying hawkish over policy tightening continues to weight on sentiment. As I type, the Hang Seng (-0.99%) is leading losses, dragged lower mostly by tech stocks with the Nikkei (-0.12%) also losing ground while the Chinese stocks are mixed with the CSI (-0.02%) trading just below flat and the Shanghai Composite (+0.10%) eking out minor gains in early trade. Meanwhile, the KOSPI (+0.22%) is bucking the trend. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are indicating a negative start with contracts tied to the S&P 500 (-0.44%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.37%) edging lower. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr USTs (+3.5bps) have moved higher, trading at 3.85% after resuming trading following the President’s Day holiday. Meanwhile, the terminal rate (July) and Dec 23 are being priced at around 5.30% and 5.09%, as we go to print, just a little higher than Friday's close. Elsewhere, minutes from the RBA’s latest meeting indicated that additional rate hikes are likely needed over the months ahead to bring down inflation from overheated levels. The minutes further highlighted that currently a pause in its hikes - as was the case in December is not an option mainly because of “incoming prices and wages data exceeding expectations” Yesterday, with US markets closed, the main news story was President Biden’s unannounced visit to Kyiv to meet with President Zelensky. Bloomberg reported that the US intends to support the Ukraine with new military aid package worth $500 million, the full details of which are to be clarified today. Biden also announced that the package will include ammunition for HIMARS rocket launchers, a weapon previously proven highly effective against Russian forces. In Europe, markets struggled for direction after fluctuating between gains and losses before finishing in the red. Yesterday, we heard from ECB’s Rehn in an interview with Börsen-Zeitung. Although historically dovish, Rehn instead added to the hawkish drumbeat coming from the central bank stating that rates must be raised further after the March meeting and that they should stay restrictive as long as core inflation is still rising. Rehn also highlighted that the ECB will likely arrive at its terminal rate over the course of the coming summer. Off the back of this, Eurozone overnight index swaps moved to price in 121bps of rate hikes by the September meeting, up +1.2bps yesterday. Against this backdrop, the STOXX 600 was mildly positive during intraday trading, before posting a small loss at the close, down -0.04%. A strong outperforming was the materials sector which gained +1.27%, with utilities (+0.19%) and health care (+0.13%) also posting modest gains. On the other end, information technology relatively underperformed, down -0.65%. In fixed income markets, 10yr bund yields posted a modest rise, up +1.9bps to 2.45%, while the interest-rate sensitive 2yr bund yield closed up +2.5bps to 2.88%. 10yr gilts outperformed yesterday, with yields falling back -4.2bps to 3.47%. In other news, we had a material upside surprise in Swedish CPI yesterday. Core was significantly higher than expected by both the market and the Riksbank, up +0.4% month-on-month (vs -0.2%), bringing core inflation to 8.7% year-on-year (vs 8.2% expected). The minutes from the meeting were released soon after the print and demonstrated a strong hawkish consensus that speaks to further rate hikes before the summer. Following the print, Swedish 10yr government yields hit their highest level since September 2013, closing up +12.8bps. Finally, ahead of today’s PMI releases, we had the Eurozone’s February consumer confidence index, which printed at -19.0 as expected, an improvement from -20.9 in January. We also had the print for Eurozone construction output for December, with the month-on-month printing at -2.5%, and the year-on-year down to -1.3%. To the day ahead, we have a number of data releases today, but the main highlight will be the global flash PMIs for February. In other data releases, we will have the US February Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity release, January existing house sales, UK January public finances, the Germany and Eurozone February ZEW survey, France January retail sales, EU27 January new car registrations and in Canada, the January CPI and December retail sales. Finally, earnings releases include Walmart, Home Depot, Medtronic and Palo Alto Networks. Tyler Durden Tue, 02/21/2023 - 08:10.....»»
"Resenteeism": When you hate your job enough to do more than "quiet quit" but are too anxious about the economy to leave
Hating your job isn't a new phenomenon, but "resenteeism" signals that people might be getting more open about it as they're more reluctant to quit. "Resenteeism" involves keeping your job when you don't want to — namely, when you're worried about job security or a lack of other opportunities available.Todd Warnock/Getty Images "Resenteeism" is poised to join the worker's lexicon alongside "quiet quitting." It describes being openly apathetic about work but reluctant to quit given fears over job security. The job market is strong, but Americans are anxious over tech layoffs and the prospect of recession. People hating their job isn't new, but some are getting more vocal about it.RotaCloud, a staff-management software company, is calling it "resenteeism," according to Glamour magazine. It comes from another term, "presenteeism," which means being unproductive at work even if you're physically there, such as when you refuse to call in sick.Part of what has enabled workers to participate in quiet quitting and the Great Resignation is the rare amount of leverage they've had amid a persisting labor shortage, but "resenteeism" signals that people are finding themselves in a tougher spot with the cost of living and a fear of layoffs.Resenteeism involves keeping your job when you don't want to — namely, when you're worried about job security or a lack of alternatives. At this moment, for instance, layoffs have been sweeping the tech industry over the past few months, with companies like Google and Microsoft laying off hundreds of thousands of workers. If you're a software engineer who hates your job, you might stay at your current workplace and decide to gruel through it.For many workers, as Michael Hobbes, the host of the podcast "Maintenance Phase," said on Twitter, "This is just having a job."What makes resenteeism different from normal 9-to-5 blues, in theory, is that you're more open with your dissatisfaction at work. It's almost the inverse of quiet quitting, which involves doing your job as outlined and refusing to go above and beyond, such as through unpaid overtime or taking on extra tasks. But the key to that one is flying under the radar."We're being laid off, losing wages to inflation, and suffering through a pandemic that changed the way the world operates," one Twitter user said. "The suits don't care about us. Why should we?"The other distinction is that resenteeism can be contagious — there's the fear that it can catch among other members of the staff who might also be put out by their workplace conditions, Glamour's Bianca London wrote last month. Which makes for a climate that could set off employer radars."Employees that feel undervalued, underappreciated, and worried about their futures are never going to be happy in their jobs, and the rise in resenteeism, while worrying, isn't unexpected," Pam Hinds, the head of people at RotaCloud, told Glamour.Toward the end of last year, a 2023 recession seemed all but certain. But several data points, including workforce ones, indicate the US isn't currently in one — real personal income has seen monthly gains again after an early-2022 decline, for instance, Insider's Madison Hoff reported last month. And we may avoid a recession entirely if economic conditions proceed at their current pace.But that doesn't necessarily change how Americans are feeling about the economy, and how the toll of last year's historic inflation is still affecting them. In fact, two-thirds of Americans in a Politico-Morning Consult poll in November said they thought the US was already in a recession.And that means they might be approaching work with a different attitude, especially if they think they have fewer options if they quit. That's in strong contrast with the workplace liberation people experienced at the height of the Great Resignation as employers clamored to attract workers. Many were even emboldened to strike out on their own, with filings for new businesses hitting record highs over the past few years.But if you think you're in a recession — or in danger of one — that might lead you to hedge your bets, even when they're not strictly necessary. Even if a recession strikes, for instance, most workers are probably safe.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»
"Resenteeism:" When you hate your job enough to do more than "quiet quit," but are too anxious about the economy to leave
Hating your job isn't a new phenomenon, but "resenteeism" signals that people might be getting more open about it as they're more reluctant to quit. "Resenteeism" involves keeping your job when you don't want to — namely, when you're worried about job security or a lack of other opportunities available.Todd Warnock/Getty Images "Resenteeism" is aiming to join the worker's lexicon alongside "quiet quitting." It describes being openly apathetic about work, but being reluctant to quit due to anxiety about job security. The job market is still going strong, but Americans are anxious about tech layoffs and a possible recession. People have always hated their jobs, but as fears that the Great Resignation is winding down, some are just getting more vocal about it.RotaCloud, a staff management software company, is calling it "resenteeism," according to Glamour Magazine. It comes from another term, "presenteeism," which means being unproductive at work even if you're physically there, such as when you refuse to call in sick. Part of what has enabled workers to participate in quiet quitting and the Great Resignation is the rare amount of leverage they've had amid a persisting labor shortage, but "resenteeism" signals that people are finding themselves in a tougher spot as of late with the cost of living and a fear of layoffs.Resenteeism involves keeping your job when you don't want to — namely, when you're worried about job security or a lack of other opportunities available. At this moment, for instance, layoffs have been sweeping the tech industry over the past few months, with companies like Google and Microsoft laying off hundreds of thousands of workers. If you're a software engineer who hates your job, you might stay at your current workplace and decide to gruel through it. For many workers, as Michael Hobbes, host of the podcast Maintenance Phase, said on Twitter, "This is just having a job." What makes resenteeism different from normal 9-to-5 blues, in theory, is that you're more open with your dissatisfaction at work. It's almost the inverse of quiet quitting, which involves doing your job as outlined and refusing to go above and beyond, such as through unpaid overtime or taking on extra tasks. But the key to that one is flying under the radar. "We're being laid off, losing wages to inflation, and suffering through a pandemic that changed the way the world operates," one Twitter user said. "The suits don't care about us. Why should we?"The other distinction is that resenteeism can be contagious — there's the fear that it can catch among other members of the staff who might also be put out by their workplace conditions, Glamour's Bianca London wrote last month. Which makes for a climate that could set off employer radars. "Employees that feel undervalued, underappreciated, and worried about their futures are never going to be happy in their jobs, and the rise in resenteeism, while worrying, isn't unexpected," Pam Hinds, head of people at RotaCloud, told Glamour. Toward the end of last year, a 2023 recession seemed all but certain. According to several different kinds of data, including workforce ones, the US isn't currently in one — real personal income has seen monthly gains again after an early 2022 decline, for instance, Insider's Madison Hoff reported last month. And it's looking like we may avoid a recession entirely if economic conditions proceed at their current pace. But that doesn't change how Americans are necessarily feeling about the economy, and how the toll of last year's historic inflation is still impacting them. In fact, two-thirds of Americans said that they thought the US was already in a recession last November, according to a Politico-Morning Consult poll. And that means they might be approaching work with a different attitude, especially if they think that they have fewer options if they quit. That's a strong contrast to the workplace liberation people experienced at the height of the Great Resignation as employers clamored to attract workers. Many were even emboldened to strike out on their own, with filings for new businesses hitting record highs over the past few years. But if you think you're in a recession — or in danger of one — that might lead you to hedge your bets, even when they're not strictly necessary. Even if a recession strikes, for instance, most workers are probably safe.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»
Futures Rise On China Growth Hopes
Futures Rise On China Growth Hopes After US stocks were set to start week with modest gains as optimism around an economic recovery in China offset fears that the Fed is pushing the US economy off a recessionary cliff. S&P and Nasdaq futures were both up 0.4% as of 7:45 a.m. ET led by energy and tech shares, after China’s leaders said they will focus on boosting the economy next year, hinting at business-friendly policies, and further support for the property market. In premarket trading, Tesla gained after Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk polled users on Twitter over whether he should step down as head of the social-media company, with the result so far leaning toward yes. At the same time, Ardelyx slumped after the biotech said that the FDA may need “up to a few more weeks” to finalize its response to the company’s appeal over the complete response letter for its new drug application for its kidney disease therapy XPHOZAH (tenapanor). Here are some other notable premarket movers: Tesla shares gain 5.1% in US premarket trading after CEO Elon Musk polled users on Twitter over whether he should step down as head of the social-media company, with the result so far leaning toward yes. Moderna gains 4% as Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold, saying it can rebound in 2023 on a return of pipeline opportunities. Ardelyx shares drop 13% after the biotech said that the FDA may need “up to a few more weeks” to finalize its response to the company’s appeal over the complete response letter for its new drug application for its kidney disease therapy XPHOZAH. Aerojet shares rise 3% after L3Harris Technologies (LHX US) agreed to buy the rocket engine maker in a deal valued at about $4.7 billion. The purchase makes strategic sense, although analysts at Truist said the offer price looks expensive. Watch Netflix stock as its price target was raised at Morgan Stanley on the back of currency “swings,” though broker flagged risk that expectations and valuation have run “too far too fast.” Vertex Pharmaceuticals stock is downgraded to hold at Jefferies, which says that the company continues to offer a good pipeline, but risk/reward and valuation seem “balanced” following strong gains this year. KeyBanc adds to recent upgrades for PerkinElmer moving to overweight from sector weight based on transformational sale of analytical instruments business. A fourth-quarter rally in the S&P 500 fizzled out as investors grew worried the Fed would keep interest rates higher for longer despite signs of cooling in inflation. Unexpectedly hawkish comments from the European Central Bank added to the pessimism last week, keeping the benchmark index on course for its biggest annual slump since 2008. Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said although stock-index futures were climbing today, sentiment is still expected to be subdued into the year-end. “Concerns that the US will be dragged into recession as the Fed tries to tame the wild horse of inflation are still front and center,” she said. Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson warned US corporate earnings next year are facing their biggest drop since the global financial crisis as the economy weakens. That could spark a new stock-market low that’s “much worse than what most investors are expecting,” he wrote in a note. Yet while underlying stock indexes remain on track to end the month lower, some investors are starting to look past fears of an economic recession triggered by higher interest rates, and betting that inflation has peaked allowing the Federal Reserve and other central banks some leeway in tightening policy. “Markets have begun to price in that inflation will decline, in part due to the action by central banks,” Jacob Vijverberg, multi-asset investment manager at Aegon Asset Management, told clients, pointing to recent below-forecast US inflation figures. This would help riskier assets such as higher yielding fixed income and equities to outperform, he added. European stocks also gained after a downbeat close to the past week, the Stoxx 600 rising 0.5% led by energy shares which outperformed on Monday as oil advanced following a pledge from China to revive consumption and a plan from the Biden administration to begin refilling US strategic crude reserves. The Stoxx 600 Energy sub-index rose 2.2% as of 8:30 a.m. in London, outpacing all other groups in the regional equity benchmark, which gained 0.5%. Here are the biggest Eureopean movers: BP shares rise as much as 3.3%, Shell 3.2% and TotalEnergies 3.4%. European energy shares outperform on Monday as oil advances following a pledge from China to revive consumption and a plan from the Biden administration to begin refilling US strategic crude reserves. Suedzucker shares rise as much as 6.4%, adding to last week’s strong gains following the German sugar producer’s guidance increase, with Warburg today upgrading the stock to buy from hold. Innate Pharma surged as much as 19% at the open after the French biotech company announced it had expanded its collaboration with Sanofi for natural killer cell therapeutics in oncology. Freenet shares rise as much as 4.8% after Deutsche Bank raises the stock to buy from hold, saying the telecom and media firm could be a defensive addition to portfolios in 2023. TietoEVRY shares gain as much as 3.5% after Nordea raised its recommendation to buy from hold, saying the break-up case for the firm is “becoming partly de-risked” following the announced disposals of Banking, Connect and Transform businesses. Nexi shares advance as much as 5% to lead gains on the FTSE MIB index after the government dropped a proposed measure on a minimum threshold to accept digital payments. Fugro shares dropped as much as 30%, the most since 1995, after report on involvement with 2019 dam breach in Brazil that killed 270 people. Tokmanni shares fall as much as 6.8%, extending losses into a fourth session, after Nordea cut its recommendation for the shares to hold from buy, noting the company’s “unwillingness to increase prices” hurts its investment case “at least temporarily.” Asia stocks headed lower for a third day as traders assessed rising infection numbers in China and risks of a regional economic slowdown. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased initial gains to fall as much as 0.4%, as health care and industrials dragged on the gauge. Initial optimism for stocks in China and Hong Kong faded amid concerns that Asia’s biggest economy will suffer from a spike in virus cases in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities. Beijing Covid Death Reports Fuel Concern China Hiding Data Benchmarks also slumped in Japan as the yen strengthened, joining the Philippines and South Korea lower, while India and Singapore advanced. Asian shares could climb more than 9% through 2023, according to strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. But the road may be bumpy as uncertainty remains over the pace of China’s reopening and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Moreover, the world’s biggest money managers are set to unload up to $100 billion of stocks in the final few weeks of the year. Still, “modest valuations, light investor positioning and good fundamentals are buffers that should help Asian stocks withstand near-term volatility,” said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian and global emerging market equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. The yen strengthens and JGB futures fall on report PM Kishida may add flexibility to BOJ’s 2% inflation goal. Japan’s 5-year yield climbs to 0.145%, highest since 2015. The moves are later pared after Japan’s Matsuno denies plans to revise BOJ accord. Most currency majors grind higher against the dollar; yuan marginally softer. Asian stocks fall for third day, with Japan and China leading the retreat. Hang Seng erases a gain of as much as 1.7%, Shanghai Composite falls 1.5%. S&P futures nudge 0.1% higher, Nasdaq contracts also slightly firmer. Treasury 10-year yield adds three basis points to 3.51%; Australian curve bear steepens after 10-year yield jumps six basis points. WTI crude rises to around $75.20; gold muted near $1,792. Australia stocks edged lower: the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.2% to close at 7,133.90, with real-estate shares leading declines on the gauge. Shares of Star Entertainment slid 18% to become the worst performer on the gauge after the government issued new proposed tax changes that may impact its business. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.7% to 11,518.14 Indian stocks rose the most in nearly a month, in contrast to the broader Asian market that traded lower. The S&P BSE Sensex gained 0.8% to 61,806.19, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index also advanced by a similar measure. Benchmark indexes in most other regional economies, including China, Hong Kong and Japan, fell. Broad-based buying in the market lifted overall sentiments, said Osho Krishan, senior analyst, technical and derivative research, Angel One. “Technically, there has been no substantial change in the market outlook as the bulls made a comeback from their support zone and showcased their resilience,” Krishan said. The gains come as demand in India’s large domestic market cushions it from the impact of a slowing global economy. High-frequency indicators show the economic activity has stayed steady in recent months but may slow going forward as resilience wanes. Reliance Industries gave the biggest boost to the index, adding 1.4%. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5% as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Here is how other key pairs did: The euro rose by 0.6% to 1.0653, erasing Friday’s loss after ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said half-point increases in borrowing costs will continue as officials try to tame soaring prices. In Germany, the IFO business confidence index rose to 88.6 (estimate 87.5) in December from revised 86.4 in November, according to the IFO Institute The pound rose while gilts plunged across the curve with the belly outperforming slightly as money markets added to BOE tightening wagers and traders looked ahead to QE sales starting January The yen whipsawed after reports on a potential change to a key agreement between the government and central bank fueled speculation policy makers are moving closer to a hawkish pivot. The BOJ is expected to keep monetary stimulus unchanged Tuesday, yet elevated overnight volatility in the yen reflects risk of a shift in tone when it comes to forward guidance Australian dollar climbed amid broad greenback weakness spurred by speculation of a hawkish pivot in Japan. Gains were refreshed on news that Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong will travel to Beijing on Tuesday In rates, the Treasury curve twist-steepened; the 2-year yield fell 1bp and the 10-year yield rose by around 4bps. US 10-year yields around 3.54%, cheaper by 6bps vs. Friday close with bunds and gilts lagging by additional 1.5bp and 10bp in the sector; long-end led losses widens 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 3.5bp and 3bp on the day. Dollar issuance slate remains light, with issuance likely concluded now for the year. Treasuries follow more aggressive bear steepening move across gilts, where long-end yield are cheaper by 13bp as traders look ahead to QE sales starting January. This week’s US auctions include $12b 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and $19b 5-year TIPS Thursday. In Europe, Bunds and Italian bonds extend the streak of declines to four, the longest in 6 weeks and money markets added to ECB tightening bets as markets continued to digest last week’s hawkish policy messaging. In commodities, oil futures rose boosted by Beijing’s pro-growth pledge and a US move to refill strategic crude reserves boosted oil futures, though economic growth fears kept prices on track for a second monthly loss. Bitcoin is softer on the session, but resides towards the mid-point of relative narrow parameters. It's a quiet economic calendar, with just the NAHB Housing Market Index on deck (est. 34, prior 33). Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,894.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 426.88 MXAP down 0.2% to 156.07 MXAPJ little changed at 507.98 Nikkei down 1.1% to 27,237.64 Topix down 0.8% to 1,935.41 Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 19,352.81 Shanghai Composite down 1.9% to 3,107.12 Sensex up 0.7% to 61,781.21 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,133.87 Kospi down 0.3% to 2,352.17 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.19% Euro up 0.6% to $1.0647 Brent Futures up 1.1% to $79.90/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,796.99 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.46% to 104.22 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg EU member states will on Monday discuss a gas-price cap that’s almost one-third lower than an original proposal as they attempt to break a deadlock over the controversial proposal to contain the impact of a historic energy crisis After this winter, the EU will have to refill gas reserves with little to no deliveries from Russia, intensifying competition for tankers of the fuel. Even with more facilities to import liquefied natural gas coming online, the market is expected to remain tight until 2026, when additional production capacity from the US to Qatar becomes available. That means no respite from high prices China’s swift abandonment of Covid Zero has seen infections explode, especially in Beijing, which has seen shortages of medicine, overwhelmed hospital staff and deserted streets as residents stay home sick or to avoid the virus. That aligns with what other places experienced as they shifted from eliminating Covid to living with it — except for the lack of officially reported deaths China’s top leaders said they will focus on boosting the economy next year, hinting at business-friendly policies, further support for the property market while likely scaling back fiscal stimulus A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks eventually traded lower across the board following the downbeat performance on Wall Street on Friday. ASX 200 was weighed on by its heavyweight Financials and Healthcare sectors but losses were cushioned by gains in the metals-related names. Nikkei 225 was pressured following weekend reports that Japan's government is set to revise a 10-year-old joint statement with the BoJ that commits the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation "at the earliest date possible," while Toshiba Corp shares slid over 5% amid Nikkei reports that its preferred bidder JIP reportedly appears to be mulling a lower valuation for a buyout. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially mixed but the former failed to hold onto opening gains whilst the latter overlooked the PBoC injecting fresh funds via 14-day reverse repo for the first time in nearly two months, with sentiment dampened by reports of two COVID-related deaths in mainland China. US equity futures traded flat within tight ranges - the ES March contract remained under 3,900. Top Asian News China reported two new COVID-related deaths in the mainland on December 18th vs zero a day earlier, according to Reuters. China's Shanghai Education Bureau said it is to shut down all in-person classes in kindergartens and childcare centres in the city from December 19th due to COVID-19 infections, according to Reuters. Chip maker Renesas Electronics (6723 JT) suspended work at its Beijing plant from Friday for several days due to the spread of COVID-19 in the city, according to Reuters. Beijing has removed or adjusted 126 COVID-19 prevention measures, and all factories and construction sites above designated size and commercial buildings in the city have fully resumed work, officials cited by Global Times said Sunday. Macau's government is to cancel COVID risk regulations for mainland China from Tuesday; arrivals from China must have a negative COVID test in the last 72 hours, according to Reuters. Hong Kong leader Lee to begin a four-day trip to Beijing on Wednesday, at which he is expected to discuss the reopening of the border with mainland China, via SCMP citing sources. Beijing, China is to buy imported COVID medicines to relive pressure on domestic shortages, via Reuters citing an official; customs will speed up the clearance for imported COVID medicines. USTR Office has announced a nine-month extension of tariff exclusion on 352 Chinese import product categories, according to Reuters. China is to maintain ample liquidity in 2023 to implement proactive fiscal policy, according to state media citing the PBoC Vice Governor. China’s Central Economic Work Conference suggested China will focus on stabilising its economy in 2023 and step up policy to ensure key targets are met, according to a statement cited by Reuters. PBoC injected CNY 9bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.00%; injects CNY 76bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.15% - for a daily net injection CNY 83bln. according to Reuters. Toshiba Corp's (6502 JT) preferred bidder JIP reportedly appears to be mulling a lower valuation for a buyout, according to Nikkei. Japan is reportedly eyeing an initial budget at a record JPY 114tln for FY23, according to Kyodo. Australia’s sovereign wealth fund is positioning for inflationary pressures to persist globally and believes that gold and other commodities will offset hindered returns across asset classes, according to Bloomberg. South Korean Finance Minister said the economy is slowing more rapidly than expected; economic slowdown is to be at its worst pace in H1 2023, via Reuters. European bourses have commenced the week on a firmer footing, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, shaking off the softer APAC handover in minimal newsflow. Sectors are firmer ex-Media/Real Estate, featuring outperformance in Energy after Friday's pressure. Stateside, futures are similarly supported, ES +0.5%, in-tandem with the European tone ahead of a sparse US docket. Top European News UK Chancellor Hunt has commissioned the OBR to prepare an economic & fiscal forecast, to be presented alongside the Spring Budget due 15th March, 2023. UK PM Sunak scrapped Liz Truss' plan to purchase energy from foreign producers, according to Sky News. Elsewhere, Sunak is set to sign off an extension to the government's energy support package for businesses for up to 12 months. Bank of France cut France's 2023 growth forecast to 0.3% (prev. 0.5%) and cut the 2024 forecast to 1.2% (prev. 1.8%), according to Reuters. ECB's de Guindos says the ECB will keep hiking rates and does not know when they will stop, not planning on altering the 2% mid-term price stability goal. ECB's Simkus is in no doubt that there will be a 50bps hike in February. ECB's Kazimir says rates will not only need to go to restrictive territory but stay there much longer. FX USD has faded despite hawkish weekend Fed rhetoric, with the DXY nearer the lower-end of 10412-83 parameters. Action which benefits peers across the board, with marked outperformance in the JPY as USD/JPY gapped lower from the 136.69 close to either side of the figure. Antipodeans are the current best performers, with the Kiwi through 0.64 vs USD at best and AUD holding above 0.67. EUR is bid but to a slightly lesser extent despite hawkish (as expected) ECB rhetoric and strong German Ifo release while Cable has reclaimed 1.22 convincingly. ZAR is the marked outperformer after Ramaphosa secures re-election as ANC leader for the 2024 presidential campaign. PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9746 vs exp. 6.9753 (prev. 6.9791) South African President Ramaphosa has been re-elected as leader of the governing ANC party. Fixed Income Bunds are facing modest pressure, though are off worst levels which occurred in wake of ECB's Kazimir which prompted the 10yr German yield to test 2.20%, action which is being felt more keenly in the periphery. Gilts are the marked underperformers after last week's relative resilience, with the UK yield around 3.45%. USTs are softer, but comparably more contained and haven't really threatened a breach of initial early-European parameters. Commodities A choppy but ultimately fairly contained start to the week for the crude benchmarks. Price action throughout the European morning has been two-way in nature and at times without an overt catalyst or driver. Currently, WTI & Brent Fed’23 are firmer by around USD 1.00/bbl on the session but are shy of their overnight peaks by around another USD 1.00/bbl, and as such are someway from last week’s respective USD 77.77/bbl and USD 75.26/bbl best levels. EU countries are reportedly mulling a gas price cap at levels lower than suggested to date, with the bloc set to meet on Monday in a bid to come to an agreement, according to a document cited by Reuters. Czech Republic proposed a EUR 188/MWh cap on Dutch TTF front-month contract vs the EUR 275/MWh cap originally suggested, according to Reuters. Saudi Aramco, Sinopec and SABIC have expanded refining and petrochemical cooperation and expect to start operations by the end of 2025, according to Reuters. Algeria is considering exporting its spare power capacity to Europe, according to the Algerian Energy Minister cited by Reuters. Uniper (UN01 GY) said the first German LNG terminal is to open in Wilhelmshaven; an annual volume of at least 5bcm of natural gas is expected to be imported, according to Reuters. El Paso Natural Gas Co. has lifted the force majeure at its Amarillo compressor station, according to Reuters. North Dakota Pipeline Authority said an estimated 200-250k BPD of oil was curtailed on Friday as a result of an extended storm system but anticipated a relatively quick return of production over the next several days, according to Reuters. USDA and USTR chiefs said Mexican officials have presented potential amendments to restrictions on genetically modified corn and other biotech products, according to Reuters. Indian antitrust agency raided some steel firms for alleged price collusion, according to Reuters sources. Peruvian President has urged congress to pass a bill to bring forward general elections amid protests, according to Reuters. Spot gold and silver are benefitting from the dented dollar while base metals derive support from the generally positive risk tone and the aforementioned unwinding of restrictions in China, with LME Copper firmer by over 1.0%. Geopolitics Blasts were heard across Ukrainian capital Kyiv early Monday morning, according to a Reuters witness. Russian military stationed in Belarus are to conduct tactical exercises, according to Interfax citing the Russian Defence Ministry Ukrainian advisor Podolyak says, to European partners, Ukraine will not surrender to or fulfil the demands of Russia; adds, "War ending can only be accelerated by increasing artillery/tanks supply. Even unilaterally…" Qatari diplomat said Qatar has been "exclusively criticised and attacked" in the investigation into the European parliament, according to a statement cited by Reuters. Qatari diplomat added that "limiting dialogue and cooperation" on Qatar before the legal process has ended will negatively affect discussions on global energy security and security cooperation. North Korea fired two ballistic missiles towards the Korean Peninsula's east coast on Sunday, according to the South Korean military cited by Reuters. The missiles appeared to have landed outside of Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), according to NHK. US State Department said the US is gravely concerned that Iranian authorities are reportedly continuing to kill protesters, according to Reuters. Italian Economy Minister urged the EU to give a strong and strategic response to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and suggested some Italian companies are considering moving production to the US, according to Reuters. Australian PM said Foreign Minister Wong is to travel to Beijing on Tuesday at the invitation of China, according to Reuters. US Event Calendar 10:00: Dec. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 34, prior 33 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Well, I had Argentina in the research World Cup sweepstake. After hours of studying form, player fatigue, different systems, the climate etc., I skillfully closed my eyes and put my hand in a jar and pulled the winners out. I will try to not let my success change me. As everyone recovers from a breathtaking final, it'll be interesting to see whether market activity drops off a cliff this week as we approach Christmas even if there was lots of unfinished business after last week. The market doesn't believe the Fed, with a pricing disconnect now opening up, and the market is now worried the ECB has upped its level of hawkishness. Outside of the ECB's Guindos and Simkus speaking today we won't hear much from these two central banks before Xmas so there is unlikely to be much official follow-through to last week's meetings. It will therefore be left to quite a full slate of data to move markets in what is likely to be a week low on liquidity. The US consumer will be a big focus with consumer confidence (Wednesday) and personal income data, along with PCE inflation (both Friday). We'll also see various housing market and business activity indicators from the US, as well as Japan's CPI report and PPI numbers from Europe. Elsewhere, the BoJ will be the last major central bank to make a monetary policy decision this year tomorrow. It could be a bit more interesting than usual as we'll see below. In terms of some of the highlights now, we start with US housing. This is obviously a big focus at the moment and today's NAHB housing index (33 DB forecast vs 33 previously), tomorrow's housing starts (1.400mn vs. 1.425mn) and building permits (1.500mn vs. 1.512mn), Wednesday's existing home sales (4.25mn vs. 4.43mn) and Friday's new home sales (600k vs. 632k) will all be important. The hard data is all expected to slow further from last month. Probably more important is Friday's income and consumption report which contains the latest reading on core PCE. Our economists think it should come in at 0.2% mom (vs. 0.2% previously), taking the YoY rate down three-tenths to 4.7%. Normally core PCE is above core CPI but over the next 12 months our economists think that anomalies in healthcare components between the two means that the former will edge above the latter at 3.2% for 2023 Q4/Q4 against 3.1%. Friday also see the final revisions to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment, including the important consumer expectations of inflation. Other business activity gauges for the US include durable goods orders on Friday, with both headline (DB forecast -3.5% vs +1.1% in October) and core (DB forecast unch vs +0.6%) seen showing signs of weakening by our US economists. Indicators of manufacturing activity from regional Feds are also due throughout the week. These releases will follow an array of downside surprises in activity-related gauges recently, including the fall in industrial production last Thursday. Over in Europe, we will get PPIs from several countries starting with Germany tomorrow. As a reminder, the latest YoY reading stands at 34.5%, some way off the 45.8% peak reached in August. October's report also showed the first MoM decrease in producer prices since May 2020 amid falling energy costs. From central banks, all eyes will be on the BoJ tomorrow and we will also get minutes from their October meeting on Thursday. Our Chief Japan economist previews the meeting and addresses the potential for YCC revision or a policy assessment here. The yen initially rallied as much as +0.61% this morning after Kyodo News reported on Saturday that Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was looking to add flexibility around the 2% inflation goal and would discuss it with the next governor after Kuroda's term ends in April. This follows Bloomberg last week reporting that a policy review is being considered for next year. However, some of the Japanese currency’s early gains today were reversed after a government spokesman denied the report and the Yen (+0.28%) is currently trading at $136.22. Following the BoJ's decision, the CPI report for Japan will be released on Thursday. Our Chief Japan economist (full preview here) expects the overall index to reach 3.9% YoY (vs +3.7% in October), the core index excluding fresh food to be up 3.8% (+3.6%), and core-core index excluding fresh food and energy to rise to 2.8% (+2.5%) as food and durable goods continue to be the key drivers of inflation. Speaking of energy prices, EU energy ministers will meet today to resume talks regarding a natural gas price cap as well as other measures to cope with the energy crisis as winter looms. Similar to the US, a number of sentiment indicators will be released in Europe. For Germany, they will include the Ifo survey today and the GfK's consumer confidence reading on Wednesday. Manufacturing and consumer confidence will also be released for Italy on Friday. Asian stock markets had a negative start to the final full trading week of 2022, tracking Friday’s losses on Wall Street as synchronised interest rate hikes and a hawkish tone from global central banks weigh on sentiment. Rising Covid-19 cases in China, particularly in Beijing, following the abandonment of Covid Zero are also adding to the bearish mood. Chinese equities are retreating with the Shanghai Composite (-1.31%) and the CSI (-1.03%) both in the red. The Nikkei (-1.15%), the KOSPI (-0.60%) and the Hang Seng (-0.45%) are also weak in early trading. In overnight trading, US stock futures are little changed with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.06%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.07%) slightly down after posting two consecutive weekly losses. In energy markets, oil futures have moved higher in Asian trading hours with Brent oil (+0.94%) trading at $79.81/bbl and WTI futures (+1.00%) at $75.03/bbl after China indicated its intention to revive consumption heading into 2023. Meanwhile, yields on 10Yr USTs are up +2.92 bps, trading at 3.51%. Looking back at last week, it was a familiar 2022 story in markets since hawkish central bank announcements from the Fed and the ECB sparked a fresh selloff. The decisions themselves were actually in line with expectations, with both hiking by 50bps. But what struck investors was the much more aggressive tone on future rate hikes than the consensus had expected. For instance, the FOMC’s dot plot signalled that rates would be at 5.1% even by end-2023, which was up from 4.6% in the September dot plot. Meanwhile, the ECB said that rates would “still have to rise significantly”, with President Lagarde explicitly pointing to further 50bp moves ahead. Given those developments, risk assets sold off across the board, with the S&P 500 ending the week -2.08% lower (-1.11% Friday). That was a massive turnaround from earlier in the week, when the index had surged on the back of the US CPI print on Tuesday that surprised to the downside. Indeed, by the close on Friday the S&P 500 was down -6.06% from its intraday peak for the week just after the release. It was a similar story elsewhere too, with the STOXX 600 down -3.28% over the week (-1.20% Friday), and the Nikkei down -1.34% (-1.87% Friday). In Europe, sovereign bonds saw significant losses in light of the ECB’s rhetoric, and yields on 10yr German bunds rose by +21.9bps (+7.0bps Friday) to 2.14%. The moves at the front-end of the curve were even larger, with the 2yr German yield up +26.5bps (+3.7bps Friday) to a post-2008 high, which came as investors increased their expectations for the ECB terminal rate. For Treasuries there was a rather different reaction however, with 10yr yields ending the week down -9.6bps (+3.6bps Friday). That occurred as investors grew increasingly confident that the Fed would be able to keep long-term inflation in check, with the 10yr breakeven down to a nearly two-year low of 2.13%. Tyler Durden Mon, 12/19/2022 - 08:06.....»»
Futures Storm Higher Ahead Of Last Most Important Datapoint Of 2022
Futures Storm Higher Ahead Of Last Most Important Datapoint Of 2022 After a dismal start to December, US futures extended their gains to a second day ahead of today's critical economic data: the final consumer prices print due of 2022 which in turn precedes tomorrow's final for 2022 FOMC meeting where Powell is expected to slow the pace of hiking to 50bps. Contracts on the S&P 500 rose 0.6% higher by 7:45 a.m. ET while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.7%. The underlying benchmarks advanced on Monday in anticipation Tuesday’s inflation data and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision will establish a slower pace of interest-rate increases. The greenback halted a two-day rally, while Treasuries gained. Oil futures extended gains by another 0.5% after almost sliding below $70 on Monday on signs of further easing in China’s Covid rules. Oil traded higher by 0.5% on signs of further easing in China’s Covid rules. Overnight news centered around further re-opening headlines in Greater China (especially Hong Kong) and a decline in German inflation MoM (although in-line with expectations). On the CPI front, Goldman expects a 0.2% rise MoM (vs cons .3%) as a decline in used cars, hotels and apparel prices should help the headline number (on the flip side expect rebound in airfares and another gain in car insurance). Full preview here. There are no major earnings. In premarket trading, Oracle shares rose 2.5% after the software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations. Analysts were positive about the company’s execution and revenue growth in the quarter amid tough macro conditions. Pinterest Inc. also gained, rising 3.75%, after Pinterest (PINS US) shares rise 3.7% after Piper Sandler lifted the social networking site to overweight from neutral, noting multiple tailwinds heading into 2023 that are separate from the health of the ad market. here are the other notable premarket movers: NetApp stock declines 2.2% on thin volumes as Morgan Stanley cut it to underweight. The broker cut PT to $58 from $66 as a name where the backlog is smaller and estimates are more at risk; raises Coherent (COHR US) to overweight. Magenta Therapeutics jumps 48% after the biotechnology company released a positive update on clinical trial data for a drug called MGTA-117 treating acute myeloid leukemia patients. Mirati Therapeutics shares rally 18% after the biotech company’s cancer drug Krazati (adagrasib) won approval from the FDA. The drug’s label was as expected, which analysts said was also a positive development. Keep an eye on US internet stocks as Citi sees a “significant reset” for the sector in 2023 and says the long-term secular attractions still outweigh the near-term challenges. It initiates coverage on 16 stocks, though Amazon remains its top internet sector pick, followed by Meta (META US) within online advertising. Watch Carrier Global and nVent Electric as both stocks are downgraded to sector weight from overweight at KeyBanc, which is cautious that sentiment on late-cycle industrial names has peaked. Keep an eye on Fiverr, Xometry and Zillow as all three stocks were initiated with buy ratings at Citi, which expanded its coverage of online marketplaces, with a preference for stocks leading their respective categories across autos and real estate. Equinix stock may be in focus as it was upgraded to outperform from market perform and named among ‘best ideas for 2023’ at Cowen, with the company seen as strongly positioned to weather a tough economic outlook. Credit Suisse says it is positive on the long-term outlook for US industrial tech stocks but more cautious on the near-term, in a note initiating coverage on eight stocks in the sector. Stocks retreated last week over concerns that strong US economic data will force the Fed to remain aggressive in tightening policy. This inflation print will be closely monitored as traders assess the impact of higher rates on prices. If economists’ projection for a 7.3% expansion in the US consumer price index for November is on target, it would be the lowest reading in 11 months and the fifth consecutive drop. While that would still leave inflation much higher than the Fed’s target of 2%, it could justify a slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening, with a projected half-point move on Wednesday. However, it also leaves the bar low for disappointment and a selloff. A 7.3% print would also spark a 2%-3% gain in stocks according to JPMorgan, which provided the following market reaction matrix: Prints 7.8% or higher. Inflation moving higher after the November print would likely have investors questioning whether the Nov was an aberration and if inflation is reaccelerating from here. Further, the near-term inflation outlook is muddled as the Chinese reopening could prove to be inflation. SPX down 4% - 5%; Probability 5% 7.5% - 7.7%. If the CPI is to miss hawkishly, the misses this year have ranged from 10bps – 30bps. The 20bps+ misses have triggered an average -2.3% move in the SPX. Should this outcome occur, given the recent bear rally, we could see a more dramatic move here. SPX down 2.5% - 3.5; Probability 25% 7.2% - 7.4%. This inline print is a market positive event but given positioning being less light than in November but is historically low. This could initiate short-covering as well as shifting the near-term trading range higher, potentially from 3700 – 3900 to 3850 – 4150. SPX +2% - +3%; Probability 50% 7.0% - 7.2%. A bullish outcome that could pull terminal rate lower despite expectations for higher DOTS being released the next day. While 2 data points is not a trend, this may embolden bulls especially if commodity prices continue their decline. SPX +4% - 5%; Probability 15% 6.9% or lower. A print here could be the technical end of the bear market, putting this latest rally at a more than 20% move from its lows in October. The logic here is that not only is inflation dissipating but its pace is accelerating. This would give increasing confidence in projections of headline inflation falling ~3% in 2023. Further, if inflation is at 3%, irrespective of the labor market conditions, it seems unlikely that the Fed would hold the terminal rate at 5%. Any Fed pivot will rip Equities. SPX +8% - 10%; Probability 5% One thing is certain: expect a big move - options are implying a 2.3% move in the S&P today, in line with recent swings which are among the highest in history. “Today’s US CPI data will give us an idea on how the market pricing for the Fed’s terminal rate will clash with the dot plot projections that will come out tomorrow, and that will, in all cases, hammer any potentially optimistic market sentiment,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, wrote in a note. “Therefore, even if we see a great CPI print and a nice market rally today, it may not extend past the Fed decision on Wednesday.” November CPI is expected at +0.3% m/m and +7.3% y/y; easing supply constraints, discounts to clear excess inventory, a downturn in interest-rate sensitive sectors, and lower energy prices are all factors effecting this month’s print. Our full preview can be found here, and this is the CPI forecast by bank: 7.2% - Barclays 7.2% - Credit Suisse 7.2% - Goldman Sachs 7.2% - Bloomberg Econ 7.2% - Citigroup 7.2% - Morgan Stanley 7.2% - Wells Fargo 7.3% - HSBC 7.3% - JP Morgan Chase 7.3% - UBS 7.3% - Bank of America 7.4% - SocGen Meanwhile, the US central bank is expected to hike interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday. “I wouldn’t be so bullish on the upside to a softer print. I’m afraid I’d be a bit more bearish on the downside if we get a stronger than expected number,” said Altaf Kassam, State Street Global Advisors’ EMEA head of investment strategy and research in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “I don’t think the market is quite positioned that strongly for the upside. but at the same time, we do expect the numbers to keep trending downwards.” In Europe, the Stoxx 50 rose 0.5% with tech, banks and energy the strongest-performing sectors in Europe. On the data front, German CPI was -.5% MoM vs cons -.5% (still 10% YoY), while German ZEW economic sentiment improved for the third straight month (highest reading since Feb). Regional focus will turn to central bank decisions later in the week (BOE, ECB and SNB on Thursday. European equity benchmark recovered from Monday’s losses as traders awaited the US release but were also mindful of the European Central Bank’s rate decision due Thursday. The continent’s policymakers are expected to follow the Fed with their own half-point hike. Meanwhile, data showed that UK wages are rising at close to a record pace, maintaining pressure on the Bank of England to keep hiking interest rates despite a worsening economic outlook. Here are some of the most notable European movers: Elior climbed as much as 11% after Citi upgraded the stock to buy, saying it sees a pathway toward deleveraging in coming weeks on conclusion of chairman’s strategic review. Synthomer shares rise as much as 6% after the company said it would sell its laminates, films and coated fabrics businesses to Surteco North America Inc. for a total enterprise value of approximately $255 million. Temenos shares rise as much as 5.2% after the software firm said a US financial institution is extending its relationship with the Swiss company. Lufthansa shares jump as much as 4.8% after the German airline raised its earnings forecast for 2022, boosting shares of regional peers Air France- KLM and British Airways-owner IAG. Banco BPM gains as much as 4.5% in Milan, the most intraday since Nov. 9, to lead gains on the FTSE MIB index after Fondazione Enasarco completed the purchase of a ~1.97% stake in the lender at a price higher than yesterday’s close. Rolls-Royce Holdings slides as much as 4.1% after JPMorgan placed stock on negative catalyst watch as the broker believes that when new CEO Tufan Erginbilgic addresses investors in February, he’s likely to flag weaker-than-expected free cash flow and a strained balance sheet. Erste shares fall as much as 3.7% after it was cut to underperform from market perform at KBW on a difficult setup for the Austrian lender into 2023 and an unattractive valuation. EMS-Chemie falls as much as 3.4% after it was cut to hold at Stifel with the broker saying it expects a weak 4Q for the polymers maker leading into a tough start to 2023. Novozymes shares falls as much as 2.2% after the company was downgraded to equalweight from overweight at Barclays. Asian stocks eked out a small gain as Hong Kong scrapped more of its Covid restrictions, supporting sentiment ahead of inflation data that could impact the trajectory of future US interest rates.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.5%, led by financial and industrial shares. Key gauges in Hong Kong advanced while Chinese stocks linked to reopening were mostly higher, after the city’s leader said restrictions on international arrivals going to bars or eating at restaurants will be removed. Most markets rose as some investors held onto hopes that US consumer price inflation — due later Tuesday — could be soft enough to justify a slowdown in rate increases by the Federal Reserve, which sets policy later this week. The inflation data will be more critical than the Fed’s decision, according to Xi Qiao, managing director for global wealth management at UBS Group AG. “It’s all going to depend on CPI numbers, whether the Fed is going to pivot or not,” she said on Bloomberg Television. Asian stocks are up about 17% since hitting their lowest level in more than two years in October, boosted by China’s rapid shift away from its zero-tolerance approach to Covid. It remains down about 18% of the year, thanks to its earlier losses from global monetary tightening and China’s draconian lockdown measures. Japanese equities climbed ahead of US’ reading on consumer prices as a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey report showed that inflation worries are subsiding. The Topix Index rose 0.4% to 1,965.68 as of market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei advanced 0.4% to 27,954.85. Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.7%. Out of 2,164 stocks in the index, 1,231 rose and 790 fell, while 143 were unchanged. “If the US CPI growth, released tonight, is as expected, they would have fallen for the fifth month in a row,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, a senior strategist at Nomura Asset Management. “As the slowdown in inflation becomes decisive, there may have been some moves to adjust positions in the US market.” In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index is unchanged; DKK and EUR are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, NOK and AUD outperform. The greenback was steady to weaker against most of its Group-of-10 peers, though most pairs were confined to recent, narrow ranges. Commodity currencies led the advance while the Swiss franc was the worst performer. The Treasury curve bull flattened The euro traded in a narrow $1.0528-1.0561 range. Yields on German and Italian debt was mostly steady or slightly higher. Overnight volatility in euro-dollar may be off its 2022 highs, yet remains elevated before the much anticipated US CPI release. The gauge trades at 21.19% after touching a one-month high Monday at 23.32%; this suggests a breakeven of around 100 dollar pips The pound inched up, advancing a fifth straight day against the US dollar, the longest rising streak in over two months. Gilts extended opening losses, pushing yields 5-7bps higher as money markets raised bets on Bank of England rate hikes ahead of its decision Thursday Australian and New Zealand dollars advanced as China’s ambassador to the US said that the nation will continue to relax its strict Covid measures. However, gains were slowed by option-related selling attached to large strikes. Bonds in the two nations eased The yen neared a December low against the dollar before erasing losses In rates, Treasury futures drifted higher over Asia, early European session and outperforming core European rates with gains led by long-end of the curve. US yields richer by up to 3.5bp across long-end of the curve with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by 1.2bp and 1.7bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.58%, outperforming bunds and gilts by 3bp and 8bp in the sector. Gilts 10-year yield up some 7 bps to 3.27% while money markets add to their BOE peak rate bets, pricing the bank rate to climb to 4.75% by August. USTs and bunds 10-year yields relatively muted in comparison, trading within Monday’s range. US auction round concludes with $18b 30-year bond reopening at 1pm, follows Monday’s 10-year note sale which tailed the WI by almost 4bp and a solid 3-year note sale. The US session focus includes November inflation print at 8:30 a.m. New York. In commodities, WTI drifts 1% higher to trade near $73.91. Spot gold rises roughly $3 to trade near $1,785/oz. Looking at the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned US CPI release for November. Otherwise though, we’ll get UK employment and Italian industrial production for October, the German ZEW survey for December, and the US NFIB small business optimism index for November. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll get the BoE’s latest Financial Stability Report and subsequent press conference. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,003.75 MXAP up 0.2% to 157.43 MXAPJ up 0.2% to 513.26 Nikkei up 0.4% to 27,954.85 Topix up 0.4% to 1,965.68 Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 19,596.20 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,176.33 Sensex up 0.7% to 62,552.76 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,203.27 Kospi little changed at 2,372.40 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 438.53 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.95% Euro little changed at $1.0538 Brent Futures up 2.0% to $79.54/bbl Brent Futures up 2.0% to $79.56/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,784.14 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.12% to 105.01 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg While equity traders are bracing for potentially significant stock swings after Tuesday’s US inflation data, their currency counterparts look a little more circumspect. Overnight expectations for swings in major currencies like the yen, euro and Australian dollar are elevated but well off their highs of the year. In fact they indicate the currencies are unlikely to break out of their recent trading ranges The gap between yields on one-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and similar- dated nominal government notes stands at 2.18%, reflecting market expectations for the average inflation rate over the coming year. That would require price gains to slow by more than 5 percentage points, a pace seen in only three instances in the past six decades UK average earnings excluding bonuses were 6.1% higher in the three months through October than a year earlier. That’s the most since records began in 2001, barring the height of the coronavirus pandemic Strikes and industrial action had the biggest impact on the UK in 11 years in October — two months before the latest round of protests crippled public services. At least 417,000 days of work were lost due to labor disputes in October, the most since November 2011, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday The BOE has recommended the UK take swift regulatory action to strengthen the pensions market after recent bond market turmoil exposed shortcomings in its oversight The investor outlook for Germany’s economy improved to its highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — the latest sign that concerns over a deep winter slump are receding. The ZEW institute’s gauge of expectations climbed to -23.3 in December from -36.7 the previous month, better than economists polled by Bloomberg had predicted China’s Covid wave is rippling through the nation’s financial industry, with currency volumes falling as traders call in sick and banks activating backup plans to keep operations running smoothly China is delaying a closely watched economic policy meeting due to start this week after Covid infections surged in Beijing, according to people familiar with the matter Hong Kong will remove a ban on international arrivals going to bars or eating at restaurants, and stop requiring people to use a health app to enter venues, Chief Executive John Lee said at a press conference Tuesday. He didn’t mention whether the government will retain the mask mandate A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mostly kept afloat following the gains on Wall St where the major indices unwound recent losses although the upside was capped in Asia ahead of US CPI data and a slew of central bank rate decisions. ASX 200 was underpinned by strength in tech, industrials and financials, albeit with gains limited by weakness in miners and after an improvement in consumer confidence was offset by a deterioration in business surveys. Nikkei 225 briefly reclaimed the 28,000 level which it failed to sustain amid tentativeness before the risk events. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied as Hong Kong benefitted from reopening optimism amid reports that quarantine-free travel is to begin in January and with Chief Executive Lee announcing an easing of restrictions, while the mainland lacked conviction after weaker-than-expected financing data and with Japan and the Netherlands agreeing in principle to join the US in controlling exports of chipmaking equipment to China. Top Asian News China's ambassador to the US Qin Gang said he believes China's COVID-19 measures will be further relaxed in the near future and international travel to China will become easier, according to Reuters. China-Hong Kong quarantine-free travel is to begin in January, according to a report citing local press. Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee later announced an end to the COVID contact tracing app requirement and will eliminate the three-day arrival monitoring period, while the Amber code on international arrivals is to be lifted on Wednesday. Japan and Netherlands have agreed in principle to join the US in tightening controls on exports of advanced chipmaking equipment to China, according to people familiar with the matter cited by SCMP. Japanese Trade and Industry Minister Nishimura stated that they will take appropriate measures on chip-related export curbs to China taking into consideration each country's regulations, while they are checking with Japanese companies on the impact of chip curbs to China and are not hearing of any major impact. Japan's government is to use construction bonds for part of SDF facilities as part of efforts to boost spending, according to Kyodo. However, Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki later stated there was no decision yet on whether to issue construction bonds to pay for developing self-defence forces facilities and that generally speaking, it is difficult to regard bonds as a stable funding source, according to Reuters. China intends to allocate over CNY 1tln as a support package to bolster the domestic semiconductor industry, via Reuters citing sources. China will delay its economic policy meeting amid a surge in COVID cases in Beijing, Bloomberg reports. European bourses are firmer across the board Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%, though action has been choppy with fresh drivers limited. Sectors were initially mixed, but have since moved more convincingly into the green, with Tech outpacing. Stateside, US futures are firmer across the board, though have been choppy alongside European peers but the magnitudes less pronounced pre-CPI, ES +0.5%. Top European News EU lawmakers agreed to tougher draft labour rules for the gig economy ahead of negotiations with EU countries to work out the details, according to Reuters. Swiss SECO Forecasts: confirms its previous assessment. The Swiss economy is expected to grow at a significantly below-average rate of 1.0% in 2023, followed by 1.6% in 2024. Germany VDMA engineering group confirmed 2022 and 2023 forecasts for German engineering production; sees +1% real production growth in 2022, and a 2% decline in 2023. BoE Financial Stability Report: Urgent and robust measures needed to fill gaps in LDI fund regulation; must remain resilient to higher level of rates than they can now withstand. FX DXY is bid, but has been unable to convincingly breach the 105.00 mark despite a brief foray to 105.09, with peers generally contained vs USD. At the top of the pile is the AUD despite NAB data with Westpac consumer metrics assisting ahead of RBA's Lowe, lifting to 0.6800. CAD & NOK have seen a modest rebound given benchmark pricing and in wake of recent pressure, particularly in the CAD. EUR is modestly softer despite constructive ZEW data, albeit mixed vs exp., while USD/JPY has slipped after a failed test of 138.00. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9746vs exp. 6.9758 (prev. 6.9565) Fixed Income EGBs have been pressured throughout the morning, with Bunds initially lagging though they have staged a marked rebound to downside of just 20 ticks. Amidst this, Gilts were dented by relatively soft UK supply, though have since reverted to pre-auction levels while BTPs were bid on their own outing. USTs buck the trend and remain modestly firmer ahead of 30yr supply and US CPI. Commodities Overall, the crude benchmarks have been relatively steady throughout the European morning posting upside in excess of 1.0% and remain towards the top-end of yesterday’s parameters. Spot gold and silver are modestly firmer despite the choppy, but ultimately modestly constructive, risk tone. Though, the yellow metal is capped by USD 1790/oz and the 200-DMA a dollar below. Ecuador's state oil firm Petroecuador said a weather power outage affected hundreds of wells in its most productive blocks, according to Reuters. Italy PM Meloni says the majority of EU member states back a dynamic gas price cap; EU Commission's energy proposal is still in adequate. Geopolitics US shipped the first portion of its grid equipment aid to Ukraine, according to US officials. EU ambassadors unanimously approved in principle a financial support package to provide Ukraine with EUR 18bln in 2023, according to the Czech Republic. South Korean envoy for Korean peninsula peace said North Korea is becoming more aggressive and blatant in its nuclear threat, while South Korea, Japan and the US will coordinate sanctions and close gaps in the international sanctions regime. Furthermore, the US envoy for North Korea said Pyongyang's behaviour presents one of the most serious security challenges in the region and beyond, while the Japanese envoy for North Korea said the three countries have elevated their security cooperation to an unprecedented level and they will examine all options including counter-strike capabilities and will be more vigilant against North Korea's cyber threat, according to Reuters. US Event Calendar 06:00: Nov. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, est. 90.5, prior 91.3 08:30: Nov. CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4% 08:30: Nov. CPI YoY, est. 7.3%, prior 7.7% 08:30: Nov. CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3% 08:30: Nov. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 6.1%, prior 6.3% 08:30: Nov. Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior -2.8%, revised -2.7% 08:30: Nov. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -3.7%, revised -3.5% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I'm still trying to recover from watching the last episode of one of the most popular TV series this year last night, namely "The White Lotus". It was a brilliantly uncomfortable series to watch. No spoilers here though. On the last EMR before Xmas I always list my top 10 TV series/box sets of the year. This will feature highly but there is currently an unusual number one that we just finished watching over the weekend. It was brilliant but I suspect not many of you will have seen it. The clue is that it is a dramatised true story about an event that happened 50 years ago this year. Anyone that gets it from that clue will win the highest-value prize our compliance team can authorise - a very big well done email. Today we have the last in the series of another 2022 epic and that's the final US CPI to be released this year. Indeed, we don't get many days as important as the next two, and the US CPI today and the FOMC tomorrow are likely to be the difference between a big Santa Claus rally and a visit from Scrooge ahead of Christmas. Bear in mind the S&P 500’s best and worst day of the year so far have both come on a CPI day, and it was only last month that the downside surprise triggered a seismic market reaction, leading to the biggest one-day gain for the S&P 500 (+5.54%) since April 2020, and the largest daily decline in the 2yr Treasury yield (-24.7bps) since 2008. Since close of business the day before the last release the S&P 500 is +6.46%, 2yr yields -20.4bps, 10yr yields -49.6bps and the USD index -5.05%. The big question now is whether last month’s positive surprise was like July’s, which was then followed by far more negative prints in August and September, or whether this is the start of a more durable shift in inflation that would allow the Fed to ease off. Our colleagues in the Asset Allocation team (link here) wrote on Friday about event vol heading into the CPI data and the FOMC decisions. Their view is that a build-up of massive vol premium heading into the last two CPI prints (and its subsequent dissipation) was a key driver of the outsized rallies. They think that if the event vol premium stays at current levels, then a post-event rally is still more likely, whereas a selloff would require inflation to surprise strongly on the upside. So if they're right the risk/reward favours a rally after these two big events this week. In terms of what to look out for today, our US economists are expecting a +0.21% monthly gain in headline CPI (consensus 0.3%), which in turn would take the year-on-year measure down to +7.2% (consensus 7.3%). On core CPI, they see it coming in at a stronger +0.29% (consensus 0.3%), which would take year-on-year measure to +6.1% (consensus 6.1%). And if we do get a surprise on either side, look out for whether that’s broad-based or driven by outliers, since one of the factors driving last month’s rally was optimism that this was a broader decline in inflation. That said, whatever the number is there won’t be any chance to hear from Fed officials, since they’re now deep into their blackout period ahead of tomorrow’s decision. Ahead of the CPI release, yesterday saw 10yr US Treasuries edge +3.3bps higher to 3.61%, albeit having come back from an intraday low of 3.52%. The intraday turnaround started early in New York trading but was probably helped by a 10yr auction that didn’t have the best reception. It remains to be seen if that was the result of wary investors ahead of CPI or just holiday-induced lack of liquidity. For their part, 2yr Treasuries largely moved in parallel, climbing +3.1bps to 4.38%. There was a bit of an increase in terminal rate pricing, with Fed funds futures for the May 2023 meeting up +2.0bps to 4.98%. But fundamentally it’s still in the range around 5% where it’s been for the last two months, and the big question is whether today’s release will see it durably break out from that zone in either direction. Over in Europe, there was also a modest rise in yields ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision, with those on 10yr bunds (+0.8bps) and OATs (+0.8bps) moving higher, with BTPs (-0.6bps) retreating a touch. In the meantime, US equities posted a strong recovery following last week’s declines, with the S&P 500 up +1.43% on the day. Energy stocks were the biggest driver of that amidst a rally in oil prices, and Brent crude (+2.48%) advanced to $77.99/bbl, moving back into positive territory on a YTD basis. Overnight they’ve risen a further +1.31%, advancing to $79.01/bbl on the back of optimism about China’s reopening boosting the demand outlook. However, at the other end of the equity leaderboard were the megacap tech stocks, with the FANG+ index down -0.14% on the day. And back in Europe, equities lost ground as they caught up with the late US selloff on Friday, with the STOXX 600 down -0.49%. Overnight, Asian equity markets have put in a mixed performance after rising shortly after the open. The Hang Seng (+0.38%) is in positive territory following the news that Hong Kong is further easing its Covid restrictions, and it was confirmed that the ban on international arrivals going to bars or restaurants would end, and people would no longer require to scan a QR code to enter venues. That was particularly beneficial to more Covid-sensitive assets, such as airlines and leisure stocks. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.40%) is trading higher whilst the Shanghai Composite (-0.06%), the CSI 300 (-0.19%) and the KOSPI (-0.25%) have moved lower. In the meantime, US equity futures are pointing modestly lower ahead of today’s CPI release, with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.06%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.13%) both down a bit. There wasn’t much on the data side yesterday, although the Fed did get some promising news on inflation expectations, since the New York Fed’s latest survey showed expectations decreasing over all time horizons. For instance, the one-year measure fell to a 15-month low of +5.2%, and the three-year measure ticked down to +3.0% (vs. +3.1% previously). Elsewhere, UK GDP rose by a slightly faster-than-expected +0.5% in October (vs. +0.4% expected), but that growth was partly driven by the bounceback from the September bank holiday for the Queen’s funeral. To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned US CPI release for November. Otherwise though, we’ll get UK employment and Italian industrial production for October, the German ZEW survey for December, and the US NFIB small business optimism index for November. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll get the BoE’s latest Financial Stability Report and subsequent press conference. Tyler Durden Tue, 12/13/2022 - 08:08.....»»
Mark Zuckerberg is making a classic big Silicon Valley mistake — one we last saw made by Marissa Mayer at Yahoo
Zuckerberg's metaverse play isn't unusual in the tech world. It's just not one we've often seen pay off outside the world of venture capital. Alex Wong/Getty Images; Liz Hafalia/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images Mark Zuckerberg is making the same mistakes that plagued former Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer. Mayer made ambitious bets that never paid off for Yahoo, which was ultimately sold to Verizon. Zuckerberg, too, is making a big bet on the metaverse, one better suited for the venture capital world. An internet behemoth whose growth is lagging. A brilliant CEO spearheading an ambitious bet. An employee base fearful of high demands and looming layoffs.This is what's happening inside Meta right now. It's also what happened almost a decade ago at Yahoo.As Meta shifts to become "a metaverse company" amid stalling user growth and slowing ad sales, stories are emerging about the growing pains that have arrived alongside the changes. The New York Times reported Sunday that current and former employees are skeptical of the push toward augmented and virtual reality, and wary of CEO Mark Zuckerberg's shifting priorities.Their concerns are beginning to echo the internal turmoil at Yahoo under the tenure of Marissa Mayer, a tenure that ended in Mayer stepping aside and the company being sold off for a fraction of what it was once worth. Now, years after Yahoo's failed turnaround, Zuckerberg is repeating Mayer's mistakes. The metaverse is an unusually risky bit for a big tech CEOMark Zuckerberg showing his metaverse avatar during Connect 2021FacebookZuckerberg announced nearly a year ago that Facebook would change its name and change its focus — he said at the time that the metaverse the company's "new north star." Over time, Zuckerberg is betting, people will live and work in a virtual universe and interact using avatars. But that's exactly what it is — a bet — and a risky one for the 18-year-old company.Zuckerberg's metaverse play isn't unusual in the tech world, it's just not one we've often seen pay off outside the world of venture capital. Unlike a VC that can make dozens of risky bets on startups in hopes that maybe one becomes the next billion-dollar company, Meta doesn't necessarily have that ability, nor that luxury — after all, it has virtual reality headsets to make, and social media platforms to grow, and advertising dollars to recoup. Meanwhile, Meta is pouring time and resources into the metaverse and hemorrhaging money along the way. The company lost $10 billion on its big bet in 2021 — a significant sum even by Meta's standards — and Zuckerberg told shareholders this year that trend will continue for the next three to five years. And while Zuckerberg has been clear that he's playing the long game when it comes to the metaverse, it's a game he needs to win, one industry veteran told Insider earlier this year."Facebook has the courage, the capital, and the capability to make it work and to become a major player," the person said. "But they can't be wrong."Marissa Mayer also had an ambitious vision — and it didn't pay offFormer Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer.AP/Eric RisbergIf this is ringing any bells for you, you probably lived through Yahoo's rise and fall. As Insider Global Editor-in-Chief Nich Carlson chronicled in his 2014 book on Mayer, Yahoo, too, was an advertising behemoth. By 2004, the company was netting $3.5 billion in revenue and had a market capitalization of $128 billion. But competition started heating up from rivals like eBay and Google — and later, ironically enough, Facebook — and ad dollars soon began to dry up. By 2012, Yahoo's worth had plunged to around $20 billion. Enter Mayer, who was tasked with restoring Yahoo to its position as one of the world's preeminent tech firms, one that could rival Google, Facebook, Apple, and Amazon. Mayer's bets were as bold as they were unfocused: Make a Yahoo app for everything! Hire Katie Couric for $5 million a year! Create scripted shows like Netflix! Buy blogging platform Tumblr for $1.1 billion! But none of those big bets paid off. Two years after she arrived, Yahoo's exciting turnaround hadn't materialized and the company's revenue remained stagnant. In 2016, the era of Yahoo operating as a standalone company came to an end when Verizon paid $5 billion to acquire Yahoo and merged it with AOL. Mayer stepped down as CEO. There are other aspects Zuckerberg's situation that mirror Mayer'sMeta logoArnd Wiegmann/ReutersInternally, Meta is beginning to mirror Mayer's Yahoo.Meta employees who spoke to The Times described frequent strategy shifts that seem rooted in Zuckerberg's desires rather than a concrete data, as well as Zuckerberg's willingness to spend vast sums of money on projects that had no guarantee of success, so much money that former Oculus exec John Carmack said it made him "sick to my stomach."Similarly, at Yahoo, Mayer was described as making decisions with her gut rather than data, like when Yahoo paid as much as $10 million per year to host the "Saturday Night Live" archives, or when it hired Couric as the site's "global anchor," even after her earlier videos for the site flopped. Then there's the company culture. Mayer implemented a controversial performance ranking system during her tenure intended to inspire hard work and sniff out under-performing employees, but it backfired, leading to a frustrated workforce and low morale. Zuckerberg now also appears be eager to weed out low performers and employees who aren't on board with his metaverse vision. At an all-hands meeting in June, he told staff that Meta would be "turning up the heat" on performance goals to weed out disengaged employees. Meta now appears to be shifting performance expectations and urging managers to push staffers out the door, Insider reported this month. If Zuckerberg is right and the metaverse is the future, these moves are prudent and will help propel Meta ahead of the competition. And there's reason to believe his ambitious plan will work — after all, Zuckerberg already reinvented Facebook once when he foresaw the shift from desktop to mobile, a strategy that even his former No. 2 Sheryl Sandberg thought was risky at the time. But if his bet doesn't pay off, then we could see Meta go the way of Yahoo. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»
Transcript: David McRaney
The transcript from this week’s, MiB: David McRaney on Belief, Opinion, and Persuasion, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Google, YouTube, Bloomberg, and Acast. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~ VOICEOVER: This… Read More The post Transcript: David McRaney appeared first on The Big Picture. The transcript from this week’s, MiB: David McRaney on Belief, Opinion, and Persuasion, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Google, YouTube, Bloomberg, and Acast. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~ VOICEOVER: This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio. BARRY RITHOLTZ, HOST, MASTERS IN BUSINESS: This week on the podcast, I have an extra special and fascinating guest. His name is David McRaney and he is a science journalist and author. I first came to know David’s work through his blog and book, “You Are Not So Smart” which was a fun review of all of the cognitive foibles and behavioral errors we all make. But it turns out that David was looking at how people change their minds, how you persuade people and he thought the answer was found in all of these cognitive errors. And if you could only alert people to the mistakes they were making whether it be fact checks or just showing them their biases and the heuristics they use and the rules of thumb they use that were wrong, hey, the would come around and see the light. And as it turns out, that approach is all wrong and his mea culpa is essentially this book, “How Minds Change.” It turns out that persuading people about their fundamental beliefs involves a very, very specific set of steps starting with they have to want to change, they have to be willing to change, which only occurs when people come to the realization that they believe something for perhaps reasons that aren’t very good. And it’s a process, it’s an exploration. It’s fascinating the people he has met with and discussed whether it’s deep canvassing or street epistemology or some of the other methodologies that are used to persuade people that some of their really controversial political beliefs are wrong. He’s met with various people from — everything from flat earthers to antivaxxers to the folks who have left the Westboro Baptist Church, a pretty notorious and controversial institution. I found this conversation really to be tremendous and fascinating and I think you will also. With no further ado, my interview with David McRaney. Well, I’ve been a fan of your work and I thought when this book came out, it was a great opportunity to sit down and have a conversation with you. Before we get to the book, let’s talk a little bit about your background. You started as a reporter covering everything from Hurricane Katrina, test rockets for NASA, halfway home for homeless people with HIV, what led you to becoming focused on behavior and psychology? DAVID MCRANEY, JOURNALIST, BOOK AUTHOR: Well, I thought this was I was going to do for living. I went to school — to university to study psychology. I thought I would be a therapist. I got that degree with an — as I was doing that, there was a sign-up on campus that said opinionated in big Helvetica font. I was like, yes, I am. That would have been — that seems new, what is that? And they said, come down to the offices of the student newspaper. I went down there and said, how does this work? They said just emails stuff. Do you have an opinion piece you want to do? I’m like — and I wrote a really like sophomoric thing about Starbucks on campus because they were just about to come in the campus and I’ve wrote that and wrote a couple of things. And then there was a study that just recently come out and who knows if it’s replicated through the test of time but it was when your favorite sports team loses, men’s sperm counts go down. And I thought our team at our school had lost every single game that year so far. RITHOLTZ: What does mean for the future progeny of alumni? That’s frightening. MCRANEY: And I thought it would be a great headline that would be funny and the headline wrote was Evidence suggests that sperm counts reach record lows on campus and one of my professors laughed about it and asked the whole class if they had read it but they didn’t know that I was in the class. I was like, this could be fun. So, I switched to journalism and went all the way through the student paper then went into print journalism and TV journalism. But I — once I reached a certain point in that world, I wasn’t able to write any more. I was doing editing and helping other people and I just really wanted to write something and it just so happened bogs are becoming very popular that time. My dad says and the others that were like — RITHOLTZ: That’s way later. MCRANEY: Yes. RITHOLTZ: I’m thinking back to Yahoo’s GeoCities in the late ’90s. MCRANEY: I played in that role, too. RITHOLTZ: I mean, I’m the OG when it comes to blogging and I go way, way back. MCRANEY: I feel you. I just happened to be there when they blew up in the point of like they got book deals and I’ve started a blog called “You Are Not So Smar” about all the cognitive biases and fallacies and heuristics that I really enjoyed. And I wrote a piece about brand loyalty that went viral and the rest is history. I was asked to write a book about it and then I was like I will continue playing in this role. But I started a podcast to promote the second book because the first book did so well, they said do another really quickly and I did. RITHOLTZ: “You Are Less Dumb Now.” MCRANEY: Yes. “You Are Now Less Dumb.” Yes. RITHOLTZ: “You Are Now Less Dumb.” MCRANEY: And it just so happened I started a podcast right when podcasts were becoming a thing. I sent email to Marc Maron because he had the number one podcast. I said, how do you do this? And he actually sent me an email with a bullet point — RITHOLTZ: Really? MCRANEY: — like each with links to Amazon items and — RITHOLTZ: No kidding? MCRANEY: And he was very nice and like — and I got all the stuff and started it up and that has now become sort of the centerpiece because that’s — I was there when I got a go. RITHOLTZ: My pitch for this podcast was WTF meets Charlie Rose and — MCRANEY: That’s a good pitch. RITHOLTZ: — and nobody knew what WTF was. But, I mean, they didn’t know the acronym nor did they know the podcast because you have to be a little bit of a comedy junkie to found that in the nearly days. MCRANEY: Right. RITHOLTZ: Later on, it was ubiquitous. So, sticking with journalism, when you were still writing, you seemed to have covered some really unusual and interesting stories. Tell us about one or more surprising things that you covered. MCRANEY: I always wanted to do feature pieces. That was the world that I love when I was in journalism school and Frank Sinatra has a cold, electric Koolaid acid test, I just wanted to write features. I wanted to be there in person and like tell you explore humanity from the inside out and way in. The halfway home for HIV-positive men for homeless people in the Deep South, that was a real turning point for me because I had to spend about three weeks on that story, visited all the different people, went to all the different meetings. And the homelessness is very invisible the Deep South. They often live in the woods. They live in the forest. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: They — there is — a lot of people in the Deep South noted that (ph) that there is a homeless problem and that was a really interesting way to break that story into the public consciousness of there’s a problem here. It’s just hidden from a very particular way. And a lot of people aren’t even aware that there were organizations that dealt with that and that really showed me this is the world I want to be and this is the kind of stuff I want to do. RITHOLTZ: So, I’m picking up a theme in both your writing columns and books which is there’s a problem you don’t know about and it’s hidden and here it is. MCRANEY: Just that whole thing, hidden worlds are it for me. Like I grew up in a trailer in the woods in the Deep South and as an only child, I was always searching for the others. I didn’t know how I was going to get there and once I got it, a hand was extended into the stage, that’s all I want to do. Like I call them tiramisu moments because I remember — RITHOLTZ: The first time you had tiramisu? MCRANEY: I was — I went to — I was — when I was still in — working for TV station, we had a little conference where people in my position went and we went there and we got tiramisu as a dessert and I remember I took a bite of it and I was like, my God, this is so damn good. What is this? And everyone, they were like, it’s tiramisu, and I was like, yes, yes, yes, tiramisu, love this stuff. And– and — but that’s — yes, that’s what I’m pursuing now. I want more of those things I didn’t know I didn’t know. RITHOLTZ: That’s really quite interesting. So, I guess it’s kind of natural that you evolve towards behavior and cognitive issues. I was going to ask you what led to it but it seems like that’s something you’ve been driving for your whole career. MCRANEY: Yes. So, unity through humility. It’s — it’s — we’re all absolutely stumbling and fumbling in the dark and pretending like we know what we’re up to. Even here on these fantastic Bloomberg offices like the thing I want to avoid is the sense that I’ve got it all figured out and there are massive domains in psychology, neurosciences or social sciences that just start from that place and then investigated And I find that when I discovered these things that we all share that should give us a pause, should cause us to feel humility, I feel like I’m in the right spot and I want to like dig deeper in those places and reveal them so we can all be on the same page that way. RITHOLTZ: So, blind spots, unknown unknowns. MCRANEY: Yes. RITHOLTZ: Things that we are just clearly clueless about MCRANEY: And the biases there. When I started out, things like confirmation bias wasn’t – it wasn’t as just tip of tongue as it is now and survivorship bias, things like that. RITHOLTZ: So, I noticed in this book nothing written about Dunning-Kruger, nothing about Cialdini’s persuasion. Is that a different approach to decision-making and psychology like or — because I always assumed there would be a little bit of an overlap there. MCRANEY: I didn’t want to rethread anything. There’s some foundational stuff that I do talk about in the book that I feel like you can never not talk about things. RITHOLTZ: Some which goes back a century. MCRANEY: And like the introspection illusion has to always be a talk about we don’t know the antecedents to our thoughts, feelings and behaviors but we are very good at creating narratives to explain ourselves to ourselves and if you always have to mention that in any book about this topic is one of my concerns. And so, there’s a little bit of that. But like Dunning-Kruger and all the other big heavy hitter, I definitely did not want to write how to win friends and influence people part two because I wanted to come from a very different perspective on all of this and I didn’t want it to be a book specifically about persuasion because I don’t think they’re start talking about actual persuasion techniques to about page 200. Like I show you people who are doing things that could be labeled as persuasion techniques but I don’t get on like the science of it later. Now that you mentioned Dunning-Kruger, I just recently spent some time with old Dunning, Professor David Dunning. He — RITHOLTZ: A former guest on the show. MCRANEY: Wow. RITHOLTZ: I don’t think he’s that old. I think he’s — MCRANEY: I say old in a chummy patch on the back that way. He — I keep asking him to come back to my show but he’s working on a new project and he’s — RITHOLTZ: A new book on Dunning-Kruger. MCRANEY: Yes. Yes. Because lot of people — there’s been always few who want to knock it down and he’s — RITHOLTZ: There had been attempts but none have really landed a blow. MCRANEY: So, we helped him out or he helped us out. My good friend, Joe Hanson has a YouTube channel and does exposures on science stuff, it’s called “Be Smart” and we were talking about that recent — there was a story about someone who — the pilot went unconscious and they’ve landed the airplane but they got help from the tower And we were talking about that and I was like, I feel like I could land an airplane based off on my videogame experience, and Joe said he thought he could, too. I said, this has got to be Dunning-Kruger, right? And I said, it would be cool if you did a video where you’re going to like one of those — RITHOLTZ: A simulator, a real simulator. MCRANEY: — a commercial flight simulators. RITHOLTZ: Yes. MCRANEY: And I just said, yes, try, go ahead, land. RITHOLTZ: Knock yourself out. MCRANEY: And so, he get — I got in touch with Dunning and Dunning was like, I can’t wait to be part of this project. So, he done interviews back and forth with Dunning before and after and, of course, he gets in the simulator and they hand him the controls and they say, okay, land it, and, of course, he crashed and he crashed it three times. RITHOLTZ: Right. That’s impressive. Even David Dunning tells a wonderful story about they never expected the research paper, Dunning-Kruger on metacognition, to explode and he goes, I never thought about trademarking it. He goes, go on — go on Amazon and you’ll see Dunning-Kruger University. MCRANEY: Yes. RITHOLTZ: Shirts, keychains, all sorts of stuff because there’s million dollars there. I just had no experience in that and I got little Dunning-Kruger for David Dunning, right? MCRANEY: That’s a little Dunning-Kruger for David Dunning. RITHOLTZ: Did not — did not think about the commercial side of it. So there’s a quote I want to share because it sets up everything and I’m sort of cheating, it’s from — towards the end of the book, “We do this because we are social primates who gather information in a biased manner for the purpose of arguing for our individual perspectives in a pooled information environment within a group that deliberates on shared plans of actions towards a collective goal.” MCRANEY: Yes. RITHOLTZ: Kind of sums up everything we do in a paragraph. MCRANEY: Yes, it does. That was — a lot of work with it, years of work within that little paragraph. RITHOLTZ: One paragraph. MCRANEY: That a lot of that comes from something that’s called the interactionist model. There’s sort of a peanut butter and chocolate that have come up that’s in this book because I’ve spent years talking to people through “You Are Not So Smart” and I could argue that we’re flawed and irrational, right? And that was — there was a big pop psychology movement for that about a decade ago, things like predictively irrational and even the work of Kahneman-Tversky like a lot of the like interpretation of that was like look how dumb we are, right? Look how easily fooled. Look how bad we are with probabilities. And one of the incepting moments of this book was I did a lecture and someone came up to me afterward. Her father had slipped into a conspiracy theory and she asked, what do I do about that, and I told her nothing. It was like — but I felt grossed saying it. I felt like I was locking my keys, my car. I felt like I think I know enough to tell you that but I know I don’t and also, I don’t want to be that pessimistic and cynical. And at the same time, the attitudes and norms around same-sex marriage in the United States had flipped like very rapidly. RITHOLTZ: We’re going to go into that MCRANEY: Right. So, those two things together, I was like, I would — I want to understand this better. So, I invited on my podcast Hugo Mercier and he teamed up with Dan Sperber and they created something called the interactionist model, which is a model that I only want to talk about changing minds or arguing, and it opened up this whole world. And through them, I also met with Tom Stafford and there’s the interactionist model and there’s the truth wins scenario and those are sort of the peanut butter and chocolate muffins because instead of looking at people’s being flawed and irrational, now I see this just as biased and lazy, which is different. And what you were just talking about with that paragraph is about the interactionist model, which is a lot of the research that went into all those books from about a decade ago, they were pulling from studies that were done on individuals in isolation. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: When you pool all of their conclusions together and you treat people as a group of people based off that research, we do look kind of flawed, right? We do look very irrational. But if you take that exact same research and you allow people to deliberate in groups, you get much different reactions, much different responses. That’s been furthered by the work of Tom Stafford. He’s been taking some of the old stuff from those old studies and putting them to groups and even creating social media similar acronyms that worked like Twitter and Facebook and stuff but have a totally different context, allows people to deliberate and argue in different ways and you get much different results, you get better results. A good example of that is like you take something from a cognitive reflection testy or something — like — I’ll make it real simple so we don’t have to like do the weird math on this. Like you’re running a race and you pass the person on second place, what place you’re in. And the intuitive answer, you sort of trying to work it out in your head but the answer was, if you like lean back, is, well, I replaced second place, I’m in second place. But if you ask people individually, you get a pretty high response rate where they get the wrong answer. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: But if you take that exact same question and you post it to a group of people, and I do in some lectures now, and you say, okay, I’m going to ask this question, keep the answer to yourself, now does anyone have the right answer, you know you have the right answer, raise your hands, somebody raises their hands. I said, okay, what’s the answer? They give me the answer and then you say, explain your reasoning, and then they explain the reasoning. When they give their answer, there will be a grumble in the crowd. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: When they explain the reasoning behind it, the crowd goes okay. Now, if you took everyone’s individual answer and pooled it together, you’re like, wow, 80 percent of this group got the wrong answer. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: But if you allow that deliberation moment to take place where I explain my reasoning to you, you get a group of people who would go from 80 percent incorrect to 100 percent correct. It really sets up for that. The interactionist model is all about this story. Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber, they have a great book about this called “The Enigma of Reason.” It’s not a light read. It’s really sort of academic. But it’s great because they found, looking through the old research and their own new research, that we have two cognitive systems, one for producing arguments, one for evaluating arguments. And the one that produces arguments does it very lazily and very — in a a very biased manner. You can think of it like you ask where do you want to go eat and you have three or four people after a movie like hanging out in the lobby, they’re like, I want to go — I want to go here, I want to go here, I want to go here, and they have biased reasons for that. One person goes over and says, hey, let’s go get sushi and somebody is like, where, over here, no, no, my ex works there or someone would say, I had sushi yesterday or I don’t like sushi. You can’t predict what are going to be the counterargument. So, you present your most biased and lazy argument up front and you let the deliberation take place in the pooled evaluation process. You offload the cognitive labor to that. We’re all familiar with that. Everyone has their ideas. You trade back and forth and we decide on the group goal in the plan, which is what this is ought to do. But we’re also very familiar with the way that plays out on the Internet which is my good friend — RITHOLTZ: Which is removed and you don’t get the same — MCRANEY: That’s right. RITHOLTZ: — social cues coming. MCRANEY: Right. So, you get like to say — my good friend Alistair Croll who runs conferences, he put it to me like this as like, yes, on the Internet, when you say I want a grilled cheese sandwich, it’s not an argument for who wants grilled cheese sandwiches, should we get grilled cheese sandwiches, anyone else agree with me. On the Internet, on most platforms we use today, it’s saying I want grilled sandwiches, who wants to go with me to the grilled cheese sandwich room. And so everyone who agrees with that position is already like, yes, that’s what I want, too. They get pooled off into a community of people who want this and then a whole new set of psychological mechanism is going to play which is all about being a social primate and be in a community. RITHOLTZ: So, there’s no iteration, there’s no debate, there’s no consensus forming as to what the best solution to that problem is. MCRANEY: Right. MCRANEY: You just have some salient issue and people form like — MCRANEY: Right. And what looks like madness or what looks like some sort of nefarious thing going down, one of the things that the Internet gives us is the ability to group up very quickly. And we are social primers, if we go into a group, we start being worried about motivations like I want to be a good member of my group, I want to be considered a trustworthy member of my group and so on. And you get a lot of the weird stuff we see today that falls into the domain of being polarized or being in a system where everyone is, if you have — in a group of people who agree with you in your current position, it’s very difficult to argue out of it because that can always fall back to them for backup. And so, that’s some of the stuff that goes into that paragraph and it gets more complicated from there. But, yes, it’s — that was very illuminating to me and a lot of the new material in this book relates back to them. RITHOLTZ: Not that the earlier books were wrong or incorrect in any way but I kind of took this as a little bit of a mea culpa in terms of, hey, I was focusing on one area but really, we need to focus on a broader area in terms of not just why we make these cognitive errors but how you can change somebody’s mind who’s trapped in some heuristic or other cognitive problem that is leading them the wrong way. MCRANEY: I did not intend for this to be like some sort of marketing phrase or trick but it’s the truth. I — in writing the book of “How Minds Change” I changed my mind on a lot of stuff that I was like depending on for like career and I’m happy to do that. It feels really great to be on the other side of some of these things and see it more clearly and with more dimensionality to it. RITHOLTZ: So, let’s talk a little bit about the blog that led to the book — MCRANEY: Yes. RITHOLTZ: — that really put you on the map, “You Are Not So Smart.” I love the title of this. Why you have too many friends on Facebook, why your memory is mostly fiction, and 46 other ways your deluding yourself. MCRANEY: Yes. MCRANEY: Were there 46 chapters? Was that just a random — MCRANEY: No. No. It was exactly how many things are explored in the book. Yes. RITHOLTZ: That’s great. So, we already discussed what led you to this area of research. Why did you decide to go from blogging, which is easy and short form, to writing a book, which anyone who had done it will tell you it can be a bit of a slog? MCRANEY: It was — here’s how that happened. I was just blogging way back in the early days, maybe had a thousand people reading my stuff and those back way before medium in Twitter and the other way to get your stuff out there. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: And I — RITHOLTZ: When did you launch “You Are Not So Smart” as a book? MCRANEY: Maybe like 2008, 2007, around there. RITHOLTZ: Okay. MCRANEY: I got into an argument with two of my friends about what was better, the PlayStation 3 or the Xbox 360. We got so mad at each other that it was like I might not be able to like hang out with them. RITHOLTZ: Really? MCRANEY: And I — RITHOLTZ: This — this isn’t a political Trump versus Biden debate. This is — MCRANEY: Yes. RITHOLTZ: But it’s just as hard. MCRANEY: But it is. We’ve been together — it’s the same psychology. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: And I couldn’t get over like why would I get mad about this, it’s just a box of wires and — RITHOLTZ: I like that. MCRANEY: And I — since I had a background in psychology, I went — and I had access to the university library, I just was like, well, there’s got to be some material about this. RITHOLTZ: Right, MCRANEY: I found a bunch of material on brand loyalty and identification and group identity. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: And I wrote a little blog about it but I framed it as Apple versus PC, those commercials were out right then. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: And at that time, the blog Gizmodo had stolen the iPhone prototype. RITHOLTZ: I recall that. Yes. MCRANEY: And then like Steve Jobs sent an email — RITHOLTZ: They didn’t steal it. They found it in a bar. MCRANEY: Yes. They found it — they found it in a bar. And Steve Jobs sent them an email that says give me back my iPhone and they just — they just went for the hits and they got super viral and I just assumed they had like a Google alert for stuff written about Apple stuff. And I got an email that said, can we maybe blog your blog post on this, and I was like, yes, for sure. And I went from a thousand to 250,000 people and I was like, I should write a bunch of stuff on it. So, that week, I just started going like things in that sort of area and I wrote a lot of more things about like learned helplessness and other issues And I had an audience and it was maybe four months later, an agent reached out who had worked on Freakonomics and said, I think this could be a book, and she’s still my agent. I actually met with her today. If I’m in town, I always try to meet with her because she changed my life, (inaudible), amazing human being. And we turned it into a book and about half of it was already in blog form. I wrote the rest of it for the book. And that book just really took off like it’s still — even today, it’s like in 19 different languages. RITHOLTZ: Wow. MCRANEY: Every once in a while, it will be the number one in a different country. It was recently number one in Vietnam. Well, that’s how I went from blog to book world. But then they were like, hey, could you write another book, and I said, I sure can. And I wanted to promote it and at that time, podcasting had just become a thing. I was listening to Radiolab and This American Life and I was like you’re always listening WTF and I said, I want to do something like that, and I just started up a podcast to promote it. And it just turned out that the podcast was really where I could actually explore the stuff and I jumped into it. RITHOLTZ: So, there is a quote, I think this might be from the back of the book. So, I don’t know if this is your words or a blurb I’m stealing. But, quote, “There is a growing body of work coming out of psychology and cognitive science that says you have no clue why you act the way you do, choose the things you choose or think the thoughts you think.” MCRANEY: Yes. RITHOLTZ: Explain it MCRANEY: That’s called the introspection illusion that’s been a real centerpiece of my work for longtime. We don’t have access to the antecedents of our thoughts, feelings and behaviors but we do have thoughts, feelings and behaviors that require some kind of explanation and we are very good at coming up with these post hoc, ad hoc rationalizations and justifications for what we’re doing. And those eventually become a narrative that we live by, become sort of the character we portray and we end up being an unreliable narrator in the story of our own lives as of the two is like a one-two punch. You’re unaware of how unaware you are and that leads you to being the unreliable narrator of the story of your life. And that’s fine like this is something that is adaptive in most situations but there is — when we get into some complex stuff like politics running a business, designing an airplane, you should know about some of these things because they’ll get you into some trouble that we never got into 100,000 years ago. RITHOLTZ: So, a lot of this evolutionary baggage that we carry forward. But you touched on two of my favorite biases. One is the narrative fallacy that we create these stories to explain what we’re doing as well as hindsight bias where after something happens, of course, that was going to happen, we saw it coming. Tell us about those two biases. MCRANEY: Well, narrative fallacy, I love this, my good friend Will Storr who writes — RITHOLTZ: It’s a question I have for you. MCRANEY: I love Will. RITHOLTZ: Enemies of Science. MCRANEY: I love Will so much and he has a book not too long ago that came up with the science storytelling and I love that domain. All — the whole hero’s journey, the — RITHOLTZ: Sure. MCRANEY: — Campbell. RITHOLTZ: Joseph Campbell. Right. MCRANEY: The science side of that is most storytelling takes place exactly along the same lines as retrospection. So, retrospection looking back, perspective looking forward. We tend to look back on our lives as we’re the hero, we’re the protagonist and whatever we’re looking at specifically, it’s like, okay, we started out in this space and then we went on an exploratory journey and then we basically came back over — RITHOLTZ: Make a quest. MCRANEY: Yes. Eventually, we came back around with that new knowledge and applied it. RITHOLTZ: A changed person. MCRANEY: Yes. Yes. We have the synthesis and the anti-thesis, all those things are how we kind of see ourselves, it’s how we make sense of our past because if we couldn’t remember everything, that would be horrible. So, we have — so we edit it to be useful in that way, That’s why when you’re watching a movie or reading a book and it doesn’t seem to be working for you, it’s because it’s not really playing nice with that retrospective system. But it’s also how our personal narratives seem to be very nice and tidy in that way and — although they never are. If you’ve ever told a story about something with someone who’s also there and they’re like, it didn’t happen that way. RITHOLTZ: My wife — yes. My wife says that all the time. I don’t know what — what experience he had but I was there, none of that happened. MCRANEY: That’s right. And you — if without people to check you, what does that say? It says that a whole lot of what you believe is the story of your life is one of those things that if we had a perfect diary of it or a recording of it or someone who is there who could challenge you, it wasn’t exactly the way you think you are. RITHOLTZ: Who is the professor after, was it 9/11 or some big events, had everybody write down their notes as to what they saw, what they felt, what they’re experiencing, and then — I guess these were freshmen and then by the time they become seniors, they circle back and asked them now it’s three years later and not only do they misremember it but when shown their own notes, they disagree with themselves. MCRANEY: Yes. Yes. That’s been repeated a few times. I talked about in “How Minds Change” Robert Burton did this experiment after the Challenger incident. That was his — that was the big one, right? But the one in that study was when it’s signaling above the noise and, yes, that’s the most amazing part of it, you –you — they have the write down whatever happened and what you thought happened. They also do it prospective wise. I think they’ve done — they’ve done it where — tell me what you think is going to happen, and he put it to a Manila envelope and the thing — whatever event takes place and then you ask people, what did you — what did you predict was going to happen and they tell you I predicted exactly what happened. We take out the Manila envelope and it’s not that and they’re like, come one, there’s no way. RITHOLTZ: Even though that’s my handwriting, I never would have written that. MCRANEY: And that’s the weirdest thing in the — in the Challenger study. When he showed people that their memory was absolutely not what they thought it was, their first reaction was to say, you’re tricking me. Like this is — you wrote this, like somebody else wrote this. And that seems so similar to something called anosognosia. RITHOLTZ: Yes. MCRANEY: And anosognosia is the denial of disorder and you can have like a lesion or a brain injury that imposed something is wrong in your body but then on top of that, you have this other thing which is denial, nothing is wrong in your body. So, I’ve seen cases where people have an arm that doesn’t function properly and they’ll ask like, why can’t you lift your arm, why can’t you pick up this pencil and they’ll say, what are you doing, I can pick that up. What’s going on with this arm? They’re like that’s my mom’s arm. She’s playing a joke on me right now. RITHOLTZ: It’s like the split-brain patients — MCRANEY: Yes RITHOLTZ: — where they don’t understand what they’re seeing. MCRANEY: Right. RITHOLTZ: They come up with — MCRANEY: This is the greatest example what we’ve been discussing is if you have someone who has a — they call split-brain patient. You take the corpus callosum that connect the two hemispheres. A corpus callosotomy is often perform in a person who has a certain kind of — they have seizures that they don’t want cascading. You end with basically two brains and you can use the dividers so that one eye is going to one hemisphere, one is going to the other. You can show a person an image, let’s say you show them a terrible car wreck mangled bodies and they feel very sick. But the portion of the brain you’re showing that to is not the portion that delivers language. So, then you ask the person who is feeling sick, why you feel sick right now, what’s going on, they’ll say, I ate something bad at lunch. We will very quickly come up with the narrative or explanation for what we’re experiencing and we do so believing that narrative even if that narrative is way far away from what’s actually taking place. RITHOLTZ: So, let’s quickly run through some of our favorite cognitive biases and heuristics. MCRANEY: Boy, this is going to be tough, it’s going to be tough. I hope I remember this. Let’s go. RITHOLTZ: Well, let’s start with an easy one, confirmation bias. MCRANEY: Confirmation bias. When people write about confirmation bias, they usually get it pretty wrong. Here’s the way I look at it. RITHOLTZ: But it confirms what they were (inaudible). MCRANEY: It’s a great way to put it. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: The least sexy term in psychology is the makes sense stopping rule. You think they come up with a better phrase and that means when I go looking for an explanation of something, when it finally — when it makes sense, I’ll stop looking for information. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: Confirmation bias is what happens –here’s the way I prefer to frame it. Let’s say you’re in a tent in the woods. You hear weird sound and you think of that might be a bear, I should go look. So, what you have is a negative affect and your body have an anxiety. You go out looking for confirmation of that anxiety is just or reasonable because there’s a social aspect to it at all times because we can’t escape our social selves. And so, you go looking and you maybe don’t find it. Either maybe you don’t find evidence that points that direction. Eventually, you — you modify your behavior base of what you see with your flashlight. If you do that online though when an environment — there’s some information rich environment, you have some sort of anxiety and you’re looking for justification that that anxiety is reasonable, you’ll find it. RITHOLTZ: Very quickly, too. MCRANEY: You’ll find something, right, and that will confirm that you — that your search was good and justified and reasonable to other human beings. So, confirmation bias very simply is just something happens that doesn’t make sense, you want to disambiguate it. It’s uncertain. You want to reach some level of certainty. So, you look for information that base of your hunch, your hypothesis. And then when you find information that seems to — it’s like confirmed your hunch, you stop looking as if you like — RITHOLTZ: You solved the problem. MCRANEY: Yes, if you solved it. Yes. RITHOLTZ: Why don’t we, as a species, look for disconfirming information just to validate? MCRANEY: In most situation, it’s not adaptive. Like confirmation bias is actually the right move in most situations. Like if you’re looking for your keys, I got to — RITHOLTZ: You find your keys, you’re done. MCRANEY: Yes. You don’t go looking for your keys on Mars. You go looking for them in your kitchen, right? Like it’s the faster solution and most of our — most of these biases go back to the adaptive thing is the thing that caused the least calories and gets you to this solution as quickly as possible so you can go back to trying to find food and not getting eaten. And in this case, most of the time, most of the time, confirmation bias serves us well. It’s in those instances where it really doesn’t serve us well. They end up with things like climate change. MCRANEY: Or what have you. What about ego depletion? MCRANEY: Man, ego depletion is one of the things that, boy, it goes back and forth — the original scientists are still like hard core into it. I love it. Whether or not ego depletion is properly like defined or categorized, the phenomena does exist. The actual mechanisms of it aren’t well understood. But when you have been faced with a lot of cognitive tasks, you start to have a hard time completing more cognitive tasks in general. RITHOLTZ: As well as issues that require willpower and discipline. MCRANEY: That’s right. So, the more you — the more you use willpower, the less willpower you have to use. RITHOLTZ: It’s finite not — not an ending. MCRANEY: And this is — not all understood. A lot of you like here’s why this is happening like have — they failed to replicate. So, we have this phenomenon but we still don’t quite understand what is the mechanism underlying it, RITHOLTZ: Well, let me do one last one, the Benjamin Franklin effect. MCRANEY: Yes. That’s my favorite. Benjamin Franklin effect goes back to — a lot of my new book is in this domain of justification and rationalization. Benajami Franklin had someone who is opposing him at every track, call him a hater in the previous book back when that was — MCRANEY: A term. MCRANEY: Yes. And he just had this political opponent that he knew was going to cause him real problems for the next thing he was going out for and he also knew that this guy had a really nice book collection and everybody also knew that Benjamin Franklin had a nice book collection. And so, he sent them a letter that said there’s a book that I’ve always want to read that I can’t never find. I hear you got a copy of it. No. Who knows, it seems from reading the literature that Benjamin Franklin totally had this book and — but the guy gave him the book as a favor. He was like very honored that Benjamin Franklin asked for it. I like to think that Benjamin Franklin just like put it on a shelf and then waited — RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: Waited a month and then took it back to him. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: But he said, thank you, I’m forever in your debt, you’re the best. And from that point forward, the guy never said another negative thing about Benjamin Franklin. So, what that comes to is I just observe my own behavior, I did something that produce cognitive dissonance, I have a negative attitude toward Benjamin Franklin but I did something that a person with a positive attitude would do. So, I must either think a strange thing about who I am or what I’m doing or I could just take the easy route out and go, I like Benjamin Franklin. And that’s — I think we call that the Benjamin Franklin effect. RITHOLTZ: I find that really just fascinating. There are two phrases that I made a note of in one of the books that I have to ask about, extinction burst and I have to ask what is wrong with catharsis. MCRANEY: What is wrong with catharsis? Extinction burst is a real thing that I love — I see that everywhere. I’ll say I see that all — in the society right now in many different ways. Extinction burst is when you have a behavior that has been enforced many, many times and you — it’s — your body even expects that you’re going to perform this behavior and you start doing something like say dieting or you’re trying to quit smoking or you’re trying to do — you’re trying to just extinguish the behavior. Right at the moment before it fully extinguishes, you will have a little hissy fit. You’ll have a, — as they say back home, you’ll have a toddler outburst sort of thing where your — all of your systems, cognitive systems are saying, why don’t we really, really try to do that thing again because we’re about to lose it. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: And the — they call this an extinction burst, it’s that moment of like if you’re watching it on a slope and sloping down, down, down, down, there’s a huge spike and that could either be the moment you go back to smoking or — RITHOLTZ: Right. Relapse or the moment you finish. MCRANEY: It could be the death rattle. It depends on how you — how you deal with your extinction burst. RITHOLTZ: I thought that was fascinating. And then catharsis comes up. Why is the concept of that cathartic surrender or finish your things problematic? MCRANEY: Yes. It’s related to the extinction burst. RITHOLTZ: Yes. MCRANEY: There’s a — for a while, this is especially in like 1950s psychology, the idea that like just get it out. Like if you’re angry, go beat up a punching bag or — RITHOLTZ: Yell at people from the safety of your car. MCRANEY: Yes. It used to be a thing in like ’80s, scream therapy. RITHOLTZ: Yes. I recall. MCRANEY: The — unfortunately — RITHOLTZ: The primal scream therapy. MCRANEY: Yes. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: Unfortunately or fortunately, the — RITHOLTZ: Any evidence that works? MCRANEY: The evidence suggests that what this does is reward you for the behavior and you maintain that level of anger and anxiety and frustration. RITHOLTZ: Because it’s self-rewarding. MCRANEY: Yes. And so, it’s — there are ways to have cathartic experiences but the ones we reward yourself for being angry tend to keep you angry. RITHOLTZ: That makes a lot of sense. And last question on “You Are Not So Smart” do we ever really know things or do we just have a feeling of knowing? MCRANEY: It’s unanswerable question thankfully. From — from — RITHOLTZ: You don’t know? MCRANEY: No. No. RITHOLTZ: Do you feel like you know the answer to that? MCRANEY: I feel like I know. There’s — here’s what’s important to know about this. Certainty is an emotion. This is something that gets me in trouble, I think, in like rationalist in circles. RITHOLTZ: It won’t get you in trouble here. MCRANEY: Well, thank you. Because like the ideas like facts not feelings or let’s not get emotional, let’s not make emotional appeals. There is no dividing emotion from cognition. Emotion is cognition and certainty is one of those things that lets you bridge the two because certainty is the emergent property of networks waiting something in one direction or another and you feel like if you want to do percentagewise, it’s — it’s — you can feel it if I ask you percentagewise. Like if I ask you, did you have eggs last week on Tuesday and you’re like, I think I did, and like — well, like, on a scale from like one to 10, like percentagewise — RITHOLTZ: On Saturday morning, I went to the diner, hundred percent I had eggs. MCRANEY: So, that feeling that you’re getting it, there’s something in generating that 100 percent certainly feeling right. So, the feeling of knowing is something that separate from knowing. But as far as objectively, it’s the exact same thing. We only get to see this objectively in some way especially in those like open up the Manila envelope, let’s see what you actually said kind of thing. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: Yes. RITHOLTZ: So, this is a pet peeve of mine because here in finance, there is this, for lack of a better phrase, meme that the markets hate uncertainty and whenever people are talking about what’s going to happen in the future, well, it’s very uncertain to which I say, well, the future is always inherently uncertain. When things are going along fine and the markets going up, we feel okay with our uncertainty. So, we can lie to ourselves about it very, very easily. MCRANEY: Exactly. RITHOLTZ: But when everything is terrible, the markets are down, the feds raising rates, inflation, the market hates uncertainty, now, at the uncertainty level, you didn’t know the future before, you don’t know the future now — MCRANEY: Exactly. RITHOLTZ: — but you can no longer lie to yourself that you have a sense of what’s going on. This is, by the way, very outlier view because everybody loves the uncertainty. MCRANEY: Well, I’m happy to sit here — RITHOLTZ: I despise. MCRANEY: I’m happy to sit here and surrounded by all these people and take the position of you’re very wrong. RITHOLTZ: They are less smart. MCRANEY: There is no such thing as certainty. This is — from a scientific or psychological even philosophical domain, everything is probabilistic. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: We can hedge our bets but the concept of certainty is way outside the domain of any of these topics. Yes. MCRANEY: And we’ll talk about Bertrand Russell later but it’s a quote from your book that always makes me think. Well, let’s talk about it now because it’s such an interesting observation, quote, “The observer when he seems to himself be observing a stone is really, if physics is to be believed, observing the effects of the stone upon himself.” MCRANEY: God, I love that quote so much. RITHOLTZ: Right. Isn’t that awesome? MCRANEY: I was — RITHOLTZ: That is right from this book, “How Minds Change” by David McRaney. MCRANEY: Man, I hear it’s a good book. The — I got that from interviewing the late Lee Ross who created the term naïve realism. RITHOLTZ: That’s another phrase I love. MCRANEY: And this — this is a way to kind of get in a naïve realism. Naïve realism is the assumption that you’re getting a sort of a video camera view of the world through your eyeballs. RITHOLTZ: Right. Right. MCRANEY: And that you’re storing your memories in some sort of a database like a hard drive and that when I ask your opinion on say immigration or gun control that whatever you tell me came from you went down to the bowls of your castle to your scrolls and hold up the scrolls by candlelight and read them all then one day came up from that and emerged from the staircase and raised your finger and said, this is what I think about gun control. And it might — what’s invisible in the process are what becomes invisible when we’re tasked with explaining ourselves is that all the rationalization and justification and all the interpretation that you’ve done and all the elaborations and all these psychological terms and that you — this concept of naïve realism is that you see reality for what it is and other people are mistaken when you get into moments of a conflict. And the thing that Bertrand Russell said is so nice because he is alluding to the fact that all reality is virtual reality that the subjective experiences is very limited, what the German psychologist called an umwelt (ph). RITHOLTZ: The thing related to naïve realism that was so surprising in the book and we keep alluding to evolution and various things, I did not realize that the optic nerve does not perceive the world in 3D. MCRANEY: No. RITHOLTZ: It’s only two dimensional. MCRANEY: That’s right. RITHOLTZ: And, okay, so have two eyes so we’re able to create an illusion of depth of a third dimension but the human eye does not see the world in full 3D. MCRANEY: Yes. I just — while visiting New York, I spent time with Pascal who’s in the book and he’s the one who were like ramming through all this. RITHOLTZ: That’s amazing, isn’t it? MCRANEY: It’s a– the retina, I mean, obviously, microscopic levels is three-dimensional. But for the purposes of vision, it’s a two-dimensional sheet. RITHOLTZ: Right. MCRANEY: And so, we create within consciousness the third dimension but it’s an illusion just like every color is an illusion. RITHOLTZ: It’s a very realistic illusion but it’s an illusion wise. MCRANEY: Right. And that’s why paintings can look nice because you play with the rules of illusions to create depth, right? RITHOLTZ: Depth, light, et cetera. MCRANEY: And even people who have gained vision late in life, understanding depth and three dimensionality is something that takes a lot of experience. You have to learn how to do it. And they oftentimes though — an experiment with people who just gained vision late in life, they’ll like put a telephone and run — like far away from them and they’ll try to reach out to it, it’s like 30 feet away, because you have to learn depth. That’s something that we learn over time. We did to children who don’t recall it. RITHOLTZ: So, you now remember, you don’t really think about it. So, let’s talk about “How Mines Change.” I want to start by asking how did a flat earther inspire this book? MCRANEY: They — I actually came a little later in the process. I was — there is a documentary on Netflix, you may have seen it, “Behind the Curve” and the producers of that were fans of my podcast and they grabbed a couple of my guests for the show and everything and I thought it would be — I would love to help promote something. I didn’t know this but someone told me I was in the credits and I looked in the credits, it was like David — thanks to David McRaney, I was like wow. So, I emailed them and said, hey, you want to come on my podcast? We’ll talk about your documentary because if I’ve gotten a chance to make on Netflix show, it would have been very similar because that’s — it seemed like it’s about flat earth but it’s actually about motivated reasoning and identity and community and things like that. RITHOLTZ: And community. Community is the big one. MCRANEY: It’s a huge part of that, right? RITHOLTZ: Yes. MCRANEY: Group identity. And they — that — after that episode, they — a group in Sweden, they put on something like South by Southwest called the Gather Festival. They asked, hey, we got this crazy idea, what if you go to Sweden and will get Mark Sargent who is sort of the spokesperson for the flat earth community and will put you on stage and I know you’re writing a book, “How Minds Change” you can try some of those techniques on them, and I was like that sounds awesome. So, I did, I went, and I met Mark and I found him something very nice, very lovely man and I did try some — at the point where I met him, I was about halfway through and I wasn’t great with the techniques. But I did an okay job. RITHOLTZ: That’s towards the end of the book where you actually described he said it was one of the best conversations he ever had. MCRANEY: That’s right. RITHOLTZ: You don’t call him an idiot. You don’t challenge his views. You’re really asking how did you come to these sorts of perspectives — MCRANEY: That’s right. RITHOLTZ: — to get him to focus on his own process. MCRANEY: That’s the whole idea. The techniques I learned about in the book — when writing this book, I met many different organizations, deep canvassers, street epistemology, people who work in motivational interviewing and therapeutic practices, professional negotiation and conflict resolution working in those spaces and what really astounded me was when I would bring the stuff that I was witnessing to scientists or experts, they — there is this underlying literature that made sense but none of these groups had ever heard of this literature for the most part and they definitely hadn’t heard of each other. But they did a lot of AB testing, thousands of conversations, throwing away what didn’t work, keeping what did, and they would arrive at this is how you ought to do this. And they were also — RITHOLTZ: Very similar, all these different groups. MCRANEY: Yes. And if it was in steps, the step would be on the same order. And I sort of think it like if you wanted to build an airplane, the first airplane ever built no matter where it was built or who did it, it’s going to look kind of like an airplane. RITHOLTZ: It’s going to have wings......»»
The 32 best enemies-to-lovers books to swoon over this summer, from fun rom-coms to seductive fantasy novels
From classics like "Pride and Prejudice" to newer hits like "Beach Read," these are some of the best enemies-to-lovers books. Prices are accurate at the time of publication.Some of the best enemies-to-lovers books include "Pride and Prejudice," "The Hating Game," and "Red, White & Royal Blue."Amazon; Rachel Mendelson/InsiderWhen you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more. Enemies-to-lovers is one of the most popular romance tropes. Readers love witnessing bitter rivalries dissolve into a sweet love. You might recognize classic enemies-to-lovers stories like "Pride and Prejudice." The romance genre is full of unique and adorable love stories but with so many different facets of the genre, subgenres or "tropes" have emerged such as "fake dating," "forced proximity," or "enemies-to-lovers." Tropes offer an outline for the plot from which exciting plots and memorable characters emerge and allow readers to find their favorite romance style again and again. "Enemies-to-lovers" is one of the best and most popular tropes that you might recognize from classics like "Pride and Prejudice" or bestsellers like "Red, White & Royal Blue." Whether they're set on a fabulous island or a darkly magical land, here are some of readers' favorite enemies-to-lovers romance reads.The 32 best enemies-to-lovers books in 2022:Descriptions are provided by Amazon and lightly edited for length."Pride and Prejudice" by Jane AustenAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $6.99When Elizabeth Bennet first meets eligible bachelor Fitzwilliam Darcy, she thinks him arrogant and conceited; he is indifferent to her good looks and lively mind. When she later discovers that Darcy has involved himself in the troubled relationship between his friend Bingley and her beloved sister Jane, she is determined to dislike him more than ever. Jane Austen's best-loved novel is an unforgettable story about the inaccuracy of first impressions, the power of reason, and above all, the strange dynamics of human relationships and emotions."Dating Dr. Dil" by Nisha SharmaGoodreadsAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $13.60Simone Larkspur loves her job as a pastry expert for a cookbook publisher until the company pivots to video and Simone finds herself stumbling and failing to create great content. When Simone's new kitchen test manager effortlessly and infuriatingly becomes a viral sensation, Simone is forced to work with Ray and their obnoxious personality in close quarters. In "Chef's Kiss", everything gets even more complicated when Ray comes out as nonbinary to a swell of mixed reactions — and Simone must choose between her career and the person who's been slowly melting her heart."Chef's Kiss" by TJ AlexanderAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $13.60Simone Larkspur is a perfectionist pastry expert with a dream job at The Discerning Chef, a venerable cookbook publisher in New York City. But when The Discerning Chef decides to bring their brand into the 21st century by pivoting to video, Simone is thrust into the spotlight and finds herself failing at something for the first time in her life.To make matters worse, Simone has to deal with Ray Lyton, the new test kitchen manager, whose obnoxious cheer and outgoing personality are like oil to Simone's water. But the more they work together, the more Simone realizes her heart may be softening like butter for Ray.Things get even more complicated when Ray comes out at work as nonbinary to mixed reactions—and Simone must choose between the career she fought so hard for and the person who just might take the cake (and her heart)."West Side Love Story" by Priscilla OliverasGoodreadsAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $11.66Having grown up in the nurturing household of Casa Capuleta, Mariana will do anything for familia. To solve her adoptive parents' financial problems amid their rapidly changing San Antonio comunidad, Mariana and her younger sisters are determined to win the Battle of the Mariachi Bands. That means competing against Hugo Montero, their father's archnemesis, and his band and escalating a decades-old feud. To Angelo Montero's familia, Mariana is also strictly off-limits. But that doesn't stop him from pursuing her. As their secret affair intensifies and the competition grows fierce, they're swept up in a brewing storm of betrayals, rivalries, and broken ties. "She Gets the Girl" by Rachael Lippincott and Alyson DerrickAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $14.32Alex Blackwood is a little bit headstrong, with a dash of chaos and a whole lot of flirt. Molly Parker has everything in her life totally in control, except for her complete awkwardness with just about anyone besides her mom. She knows she's in love with the impossibly cool Cora Myers. She just…hasn't actually talked to her yet.When Alex, fresh off a bad (but hopefully not permanent) breakup, discovers Molly's hidden crush as their paths cross the night before classes start, they realize they might have a common interest after all. Because maybe if Alex volunteers to help Molly learn how to get her dream girl to fall for her, she can prove to her ex that she's not a selfish flirt. As the two embark on their five-step plans to get their girls to fall for them, though, they both begin to wonder if maybe they're the ones falling…for each other."The Stand-In" by Lily ChuAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $11.99Gracie Reed is doing just fine. Sure, she was fired by her overly "friendly" boss, and yes she still hasn't gotten her mother into the nursing home of their dreams, but she's healthy, she's (somewhat) happy, and she's (mostly) holding it all together.But when a mysterious SUV pulls up beside her, revealing Chinese cinema's golden couple Wei Fangli and Sam Yao, Gracie's world is turned on its head. The famous actress has a proposition: due to their uncanny resemblance, Fangli wants Gracie to be her stand-in. The catch? Gracie will have to be escorted by Sam, the most attractive―and infuriating―man Gracie's ever met."Beach Read" by Emily HenryAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $7.36A romance writer who no longer believes in love and a literary writer stuck with their respective writer's blocks engage in a summer-long challenge that may just upend everything they believe about happily ever afters. They strike a deal designed to force them out of their creative ruts: Augustus will spend the summer writing something happy, and January will pen the next Great American Novel. Everyone will finish a book, and no one will fall in love. Really."The Spanish Love Deception" by Elena ArmasAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $17.99A wedding. A trip to Spain. The most infuriating man. And three days of pretending. Or, in other words, a plan that will never work.Four weeks wasn't a lot of time to find someone willing to cross the Atlantic — from NYC and all the way to Spain — for a wedding. Let alone someone eager to play along with my charade. But that didn't mean I was desperate enough to bring the 6'4 blue-eyed pain in my ass standing before me: Aaron Blackford. The man whose main occupation was making my blood boil had just offered himself to be my date, right after inserting his nose in my business and calling me delusional and himself my best option. Was it worth the suffering to bring my colleague and bane of my existence as my fake boyfriend to my sister's wedding? Or was I better off coming clean and facing the consequences?"Poison Study (The Chronicles of Ixia Book 0)" by Maria V. SnyderAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $11.59About to be executed for murder, Yelena is offered an extraordinary reprieve. She'll eat the best meals, have rooms in the palace — and risk assassination by anyone trying to kill the Commander of Ixia.And so, Yelena chooses to become a food taster. But the chief of security, leaving nothing to chance, deliberately feeds her Butterfly's Dusté, and only by appearing for her daily antidote will she delay an agonizing death from the poison.As Yelena tries to escape her new dilemma, disasters keep mounting. Rebels plot to seize Ixia, and Yelena develops magical powers she can't control. Her life is threatened again, and choices must be made. But this time, the outcomes aren't so clear."A Touch of Darkness" by Scarlett St. ClairAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $14.54Persephone is the Goddess of Spring by title only. The truth is, since she was a little girl, flowers have shriveled at her touch. After moving to New Athens, she hopes to lead an unassuming life disguised as a mortal journalist. Hades, God of the Dead, has built a gambling empire in the mortal world, and his favorite bets are rumored to be impossible. After a chance encounter with Hades, Persephone finds herself in a contract with the God of the Dead, and the terms are impossible: Persephone must create life in the Underworld or lose her freedom forever. The bet does more than expose Persephone's failure as a goddess, however. As she struggles to sow the seeds of her freedom, love for the God of the Dead grows — and it's forbidden."The Hating Game" by Sally ThorneAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $9.19Lucy Hutton and Joshua Templeman hate each other. Not dislike. Not begrudgingly tolerate. Hate. And they have no problem displaying their feelings through a series of ritualistic passive aggressive maneuvers as they sit across from each other, executive assistants to co-CEOs of a publishing company. Lucy can't understand Joshua's joyless, uptight, meticulous approach to his job. Joshua is clearly baffled by Lucy's overly bright clothes, quirkiness, and Pollyanna attitude.Now up for the same promotion, their battle of wills has come to a head, and Lucy refuses to back down when their latest game could cost her her dream job… But the tension between Lucy and Joshua has also reached its boiling point, and Lucy is discovering that maybe she doesn't hate Joshua. And maybe, he doesn't hate her either. Or maybe this is just another game."Red Queen" by Victoria AveyardAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $6.98Mare Barrow's world is divided by blood — those with common, Red blood serve the Silver-blooded elite, who are gifted with superhuman abilities. Mare is a Red, scraping by as a thief in a poor, rural village until a twist of fate throws her in front of the Silver court. Before the king, princes, and all the nobles, she discovers she has an ability of her own.To cover up this impossibility, the king forces her to play the role of a lost Silver princess and she is betrothed to one of his sons. As Mare is drawn further into the Silver world, she risks everything and uses her new position to help the Scarlet Guard — a growing Red rebellion — even as her heart tugs her in an impossible direction."Beautiful Disaster" by Jamie McGuireAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $9.90The new Abby Abernathy is a good girl. She doesn't drink or swear, and she has the appropriate number of cardigans in her wardrobe. Abby believes she has enough distance from the darkness of her past, but when she arrives at college with her best friend, her path to a new beginning is quickly challenged by Eastern University's Walking One-Night Stand.Travis Maddox, lean, cut, and covered in tattoos, is exactly what Abby wants — and needs — to avoid. He spends his nights winning money in a floating fight ring and his days as the ultimate college campus charmer. Intrigued by Abby's resistance to his appeal, Travis tricks her into his daily life with a simple bet. If he loses, he must remain abstinent for a month. If Abby loses, she must live in Travis's apartment for the same amount of time. Either way, Travis has no idea that he has met his match. "Red, White & Royal Blue" by Casey McQuistonAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $9.97What happens when America's First Son falls in love with the Prince of Wales?When his mother became President, Alex Claremont-Diaz was promptly cast as the American equivalent of a young royal. Handsome, charismatic, genius ― his image is pure millennial-marketing gold for the White House. There's only one problem: Alex has a beef with the actual prince, Henry, across the pond. And when the tabloids get hold of a photo involving an Alex-Henry altercation, U.S./British relations take a turn for the worse.Heads of family, state, and other handlers devise a plan for damage control: Staging a truce between the two rivals. What at first begins as a fake, Instragramable friendship grows deeper and more dangerous than either Alex or Henry could have imagined. Soon Alex finds himself hurtling into a secret romance with a surprisingly unstuffy Henry that could derail the campaign and upend two nations and begs the question: Can love save the world after all? Where do we find the courage, and the power, to be the people we are meant to be? "The Shadows Between Us" by Tricia LevensellerAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $10.99Alessandra is tired of being overlooked, but she has a plan to gain power:1) Woo the Shadow King.2) Marry him.3) Kill him and take his kingdom for herself.No one knows the extent of the freshly crowned Shadow King's power. Some say he can command the shadows that swirl around him to do his bidding. Others say they speak to him, whispering the thoughts of his enemies. Regardless, Alessandra knows what she deserves, and she's going to do everything within her power to get it.But Alessandra's not the only one trying to kill the king. As attempts on his life are made, she finds herself trying to keep him alive long enough for him to make her his queen ― all while struggling not to lose her heart. After all, who better for a Shadow King than a cunning, villainous queen?"The Viscount Who Loved Me: Bridgerton (Bridgerton Book 2)" by Julia QuinnAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $9.19This time the gossip columnists have it wrong. London's most elusive bachelor Anthony Bridgerton hasn't just decided to marry — he's even chosen a wife! The only obstacle is his intended's older sister, Kate Sheffield — the most meddlesome woman ever to grace a London ballroom. The spirited schemer is driving Anthony mad with her determination to stop the betrothal, but when he closes his eyes at night, Kate's the woman haunting his increasingly erotic dreams...Contrary to popular belief, Kate is quite sure that reformed rakes do not make the best husbands — and Anthony Bridgerton is the most wicked rogue of them all. Kate's determined to protect her sister — but she fears her own heart is vulnerable. And when Anthony's lips touch hers, she's suddenly afraid she might not be able to resist the reprehensible rake herself..."The Cruel Prince" by Holly BlackAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $10.99Of course, I want to be like them. They're beautiful as blades forged in some divine fire. They will live forever. And Cardan is even more beautiful than the rest. I hate him more than all the others. I hate him so much that sometimes when I look at him, I can hardly breathe.Jude was seven years old when her parents were murdered, and she and her two sisters were stolen away to live in the treacherous High Court of Faerie. 10 years later, Jude wants nothing more than to belong there, despite her mortality. But many of the fey despise humans — especially Prince Cardan, the youngest and wickedest son of the High King.To win a place at the Court, she must defy him — and face the consequences."Wuthering Heights" by Emily BronteAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $7.36Lockwood, the new tenant of Thrushcross Grange, situated on the bleak Yorkshire moors, is forced to seek shelter one night at Wuthering Heights, the home of his landlord. There he discovers the history of the tempestuous events that took place years before. What unfolds is the tale of the intense love between the foundling Heathcliff and Catherine Earnshaw. Catherine, forced to choose between passionate, tortured Heathcliff and gentle, well-bred Edgar Linton, surrendered to the expectations of her class. As Heathcliff's bitterness and vengeance at his betrayal are visited upon the next generation, their innocent heirs must struggle to escape the legacy of the past."The Unhoneymooners" by Christina LaurenAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $8.44Olive Torres is used to being the unlucky twin: From inexplicable mishaps to a recent layoff, her life seems to be almost comically jinxed. By contrast, her sister Ami is an eternal champion… she even managed to finance her entire wedding by winning a slew of contests. Unfortunately for Olive, the only thing worse than constant bad luck is having to spend the wedding day with the best man (and her nemesis), Ethan Thomas.Olive braces herself for wedding hell — determined to put on a brave face. But when the entire wedding party gets food poisoning, the only people who aren't affected are Olive and Ethan. Suddenly there's a free honeymoon up for grabs, and Olive will be damned if Ethan gets to enjoy paradise solo.Agreeing to a temporary truce, the pair head for Maui. After all, 10 days of bliss is worth having to assume the role of loving newlyweds, right? But the weird thing is… Olive doesn't mind playing pretend. In fact, the more she pretends to be the luckiest woman alive, the more it feels like she might be."If I Never Met You" by Mhairi McFarlaneAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $10.72When her partner of over a decade suddenly ends things, Laurie is left reeling — not only because they work at the same law firm, and she has to see him every day. Her once perfect life is in shambles, and the thought of dating again in the age of Tinder is nothing short of horrifying. When news of her ex's pregnant girlfriend hits the office grapevine, taking the humiliation lying down is not an option. Then a chance encounter in a broken-down elevator with the office playboy opens up a new possibility.Jamie Carter doesn't believe in love, but he needs a respectable, steady girlfriend to impress their bosses. Laurie wants a hot new man to give the rumor mill something else to talk about. It's the perfect proposition: a fauxmance played out on social media, with strategically staged photographs and a specific end date in mind. With the plan hatched, Laurie and Jamie begin to flaunt their new couple status, to the astonishment — and jealousy — of their friends and colleagues. But there's a fine line between pretending to be in love and actually falling for your charming, handsome fake boyfriend..."Serpent & Dove (Serpent & Dove, #1)" by Shelby MahurinAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $10.59Two years ago, Louise le Blanc fled her coven and took shelter in the city of Cesarine, forsaking all magic and living off whatever she could steal. There, witches like Lou are hunted. They are feared. And they are burned.As a huntsman of the Church, Reid Diggory has lived his life by one principle: Thou shalt not suffer a witch to live. But when Lou pulls a wicked stunt, the two are forced into an impossible situation — marriage.Lou, unable to ignore her growing feelings yet powerless to change what she is, must make a choice. And love makes fools of us all."The Wicked King (The Folk of the Air, #2)" by Holly BlackAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $10.99You must be strong enough to strike and strike and strike again without tiring. The first lesson is to make yourself strong.Jude must keep her younger brother safe. To do so, she has bound the wicked king, Cardan, to her, and made herself the power behind the throne. Navigating the constantly shifting political alliances of Faerie would be difficult enough if Cardan were easy to control. But he does everything in his power to humiliate and undermine her even as his fascination with her remains undiminished.When it becomes all too clear that someone close to Jude means to betray her, threatening her own life and the lives of everyone she loves, Jude must uncover the traitor and fight her own complicated feelings for Cardan to maintain control as a mortal in a Faerie world."Six of Crows (Six of Crows, 1)" by Leigh BardugoAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $7.99Ketterdam: A bustling hub of international trade where anything can be had for the right price ― and no one knows that better than criminal prodigy Kaz Brekker. Kaz is offered a chance at a deadly heist that could make him rich beyond his wildest dreams. But he can't pull it off alone...A convict with a thirst for revenge. A sharpshooter who can't walk away from a wager. A runaway with a privileged past. A spy known as the Wraith. A Heartrender using her magic to survive the slums. A thief with a gift for unlikely escapes.Six dangerous outcasts. One impossible heist. Kaz's crew is the only thing that might stand between the world and destruction ― if they don't kill each other first."Bully (Fall Away, #1)" by Penelope DouglasAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $14.40My name is Tate. He doesn't call me that, though. He would never refer to me by a friendly nickname. No, he'll barely even speak to me. But he still won't leave me alone.We were best friends once. Then he turned on me and made it his mission to ruin my life. I was humiliated, shut out, and gossiped about all through high school. His pranks and rumors got worse as time wore on, and I made myself sick trying to stay out of his way. I even went away for a year just to avoid him.But I'm done hiding from him now, and there's no way I'll allow him to ruin another year. He might not have changed, but I have. It's time to fight back."A Court of Thorns and Roses (A Court of Thorns and Roses, #1)" by Sarah J. MaasAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $10.80When 19-year-old huntress Feyre kills a wolf in the woods, a terrifying creature arrives to demand retribution. Dragged to a treacherous magical land she knows about only from legends, Feyre discovers that her captor is not truly a beast, but one of the lethal, immortal faeries who once ruled her world.At least, he's not a beast all the time.As she adapts to her new home, her feelings for the faerie, Tamlin, transform from icy hostility into a fiery passion that burns through every lie she's been told about the beautiful, dangerous world of the Fae. But something is not right in the faerie lands. An ancient, wicked shadow is growing, and Feyre must find a way to stop it or doom Tamlin-and his world-forever."To Kill a Kingdom" by Alexandra ChristoAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $9.89Princess Lira is siren royalty and the most lethal of them all. With the hearts of 17 princes in her collection, she is revered across the sea. Until a twist of fate forces her to kill one of her own. To punish her daughter, the Sea Queen transforms Lira into the one thing they loathe most ― a human. Robbed of her song, Lira has until the winter solstice to deliver Prince Elian's heart to the Sea Queen or remain a human forever.The ocean is the only place Prince Elian calls home, even though he is heir to the most powerful kingdom in the world. Hunting sirens is more than an unsavory hobby ― it's his calling. When he rescues a drowning woman in the ocean, she's more than what she appears. She promises to help him find the key to destroying all of sirenkind for good ― but can he trust her? And just how many deals will Elian have to barter to eliminate mankind's greatest enemy?"Punk 57" by Penelope DouglasAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $13.99Misha: I can't help but smile at the lyrics in her letter. She misses me. In fifth grade, my teacher set us up with pen pals from a different school. Thinking I was a girl, with a name like Misha, the other teacher paired me up with her student, Ryen. My teacher, believing Ryen was a boy like me, agreed. It didn't take long for us to figure out the mistake. And in no time at all, we were arguing about everything. The best take-out pizza. Android vs. iPhone. Whether or not Eminem is the greatest rapper ever… And that was the start. For the next seven years, it was us. We only had three rules: No social media, no phone numbers, no pictures. We had a good thing going. Why ruin it? Until I run across a photo of a girl online. Name's Ryen, loves Gallo's pizza, and worships her iPhone. What are the chances? F*ck it. I need to meet her. I just don't expect to hate what I find. Ryen: He hasn't written in three months. Something's wrong. Did he die? Get arrested? Knowing Misha, neither would be a stretch. Without him around, I'm going crazy. I need to know someone is listening. It's my own fault. I should've gotten his phone number or picture or something. He could be gone forever. Or right under my nose, and I wouldn't even know it."From Lukov with Love" by Mariana ZapataAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $18.99If someone were to ask Jasmine Santos to describe the last few years of her life with a single word, it would definitely be a four-letter one. After 17 years — and countless broken bones and broken promises — she knows her window to compete in figure skating is coming to a close. But when the offer of a lifetime comes in from an arrogant idiot she's spent the last decade dreaming about pushing in the way of a moving bus, Jasmine might have to reconsider everything. Including Ivan Lukov."From Blood and Ash (Blood and Ash, #1)" by Jennifer L. ArmentroutAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $18.65Chosen from birth to usher in a new era, Poppy's life has never been her own. The life of the Maiden is solitary. Never to be touched. Never to be looked upon. Never to be spoken to. Never to experience pleasure. Waiting for the day of her Ascension, she would rather be with the guards, fighting back the evil that took her family than preparing to be found worthy by the gods. But the choice has never been hers.The entire kingdom's future rests on Poppy's shoulders. But when Hawke, a golden-eyed guard, honor-bound to ensure her Ascension, enters her life, destiny and duty become tangled with desire and need. He incites her anger, makes her question everything she believes in, and tempts her with the forbidden."These Violent Delights (These Violent Delights, #1)" by Chloe GongAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $14.98The year is 1926, and Shanghai hums to the tune of debauchery.A blood feud between two gangs runs the streets red, leaving the city helpless in the grip of chaos. At the heart of it all is 18-year-old Juliette Cai, a former flapper who has returned to assume her role as the proud heir of the Scarlet Gang — a network of criminals far above the law. Their only rivals in power are the White Flowers, who have fought the Scarlets for generations. And behind every move is their heir, Roma Montagov, Juliette's first love… and first betrayal.But when gangsters on both sides show signs of instability, the people start to whisper. Of a contagion, a madness. Of a monster in the shadows. As the deaths stack up, Juliette and Roma must set their guns — and grudges — aside and work together, for if they can't stop this mayhem, then there will be no city left for either to rule."The Bridge Kingdom (The Bridge Kingdom, #1)" by Danielle L. JensenAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $13.49The only route through a storm-ravaged world, the Bridge Kingdom enriches itself and deprives its rivals, including Lara's homeland. So when she's sent as a bride under the guise of peace, Lara is prepared to do whatever it takes to fracture its impenetrable defenses. And the defenses of its king.Yet as she infiltrates her new home and gains a deeper understanding of the war to possess the bridge, Lara begins to question whether she's the hero or the villain. And as her feelings for Aren transform from frosty hostility to fierce passion, Lara must choose which kingdom she'll save... and which kingdom she'll destroy."Paper Princess (The Royals, #1") by Erin WattAmazonAvailable on Amazon and Bookshop from $16.14Ella Harper is a survivor ― a pragmatic optimist. She's spent her whole life moving from town to town with her flighty mother, struggling to make ends meet and believing that someday she'll climb out of the gutter. After her mother's death, Ella is truly alone.Until Callum Royal appears, plucking Ella out of poverty and tossing her into his posh mansion among his five sons, who all hate her. Each Royal boy is more magnetic than the last, but none as captivating as Reed Royal, the boy who is determined to send her back to where she came from.Reed doesn't want her. He says she doesn't belong with the Royals. He might be right.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»
Greenwald: The Demented - And Selective - Game Of Instantly Blaming Political Opponents For Mass Shootings
Greenwald: The Demented - And Selective - Game Of Instantly Blaming Political Opponents For Mass Shootings Authored by Glenn Greenwald via greenwald.substack.com, At a softball field in a Washington, DC suburb on June 14, 2017, a lone gunman used a rifle to indiscriminately spray bullets at members of the House GOP who had gathered for their usual Saturday morning practice for an upcoming charity game. The then-House Majority Whip, Rep. Steven Scalise (R-LA), was shot in the hip while standing on second base and almost died, spending six weeks in the hospital and undergoing multiple surgeries. Four other people were shot, including two members of the Capitol Police who were part of Scalise's security detail, a GOP staffer, and a Tyson Foods lobbyist. “He was hunting us at that point,” Rep. Mike Bishop (R-MI) said of the shooter, who attempted to murder as many people as he could while standing with his rifle behind the dugout. Buffalo Police on scene at a Tops Friendly Market on May 14, 2022 in Buffalo, New York. At least 10 people were killed after a mass shooting at the store with the shooter in police custody. (Photo by John Normile/Getty Images) The shooter died after engaging the police in a shootout. He was James T. Hodgkinson, a 66-year-old hard-core Democrat who — less than six months into the Trump presidency — had sought to kill GOP lawmakers based on his belief that Republicans were corrupt traitors, fascists, and Kremlin agents. The writings he left behind permitted little doubt that he was driven to kill by the relentless messaging he heard from his favorite cable host, MSNBC's Rachel Maddow, and other virulently anti-Trump pundits, about the evils of the GOP. Indeed, immediately after arriving at the softball field, he asked several witnesses whether the people gathered "were Republicans or Democrats.” A CNN examination of his life revealed that “Hodgkinson's online presence was largely defined by his politics.” In particular, “his public Facebook posts date back to 2012 and are nearly all about his support for liberal politics.” He was particularly "passionate about tax hikes on the rich and universal health care.” NBC News explained that “when he got angry about politics, it was often directed against Republicans,” and acknowledged that “Hodgkinson said his favorite TV program was 'The Rachel Maddow Show' on MSNBC.” Indeed, his media diet was a non-stop barrage of vehement animosity toward Republicans: "His favorite television shows were listed as 'Real Time with Bill Maher;' 'The Rachel Maddow Show;' 'Democracy Now!’ and other left-leaning programs.” On the Senate floor, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) divulged that Hodgkinson was an ardent supporter of his and had even “apparently volunteered” for his campaign. A Sanders supporter told The Washington Post that “he campaigned for Bernie Sanders with Hodgkinson in Iowa.” The mass-shooter had a particular fondness for Maddow's nightly MSNBC show. In his many Letters to the Editor sent to the Belleville News-Democrat, reported New York Magazine, he “expressed support for President Obama, and declared his love for The Rachel Maddow Show". In one letter he heralded Maddow's nightly program as "one of my favorite TV shows.” While consuming this strident and increasingly rage-driven Trump-era, anti-GOP media diet, Hodgkinson “joined several anti-GOP Facebook groups, including ‘Terminate The Republican Party’; 'The Road to Hell Is Paved With Republicans’;, and 'Join The Resistance Worldwide!!'" Two of his consuming beliefs were that Trump-era Republicans were traitors to the United States and fascist white nationalists. In 2015, he had posted a cartoon depicting Scalise — the man he came very close to murdering — as speaking at a gathering of the KKK. Once Trump was inaugurated in early 2017, the mass shooter's online messaging began increasingly mirroring the more extreme anti-Trump and anti-GOP voices that did not just condemn the GOP's ideology but depicted them as grave threats to the Republic. In a March 22 Facebook post, Hodgkinson wrote: “Trump is a Traitor. Trump Has Destroyed Our Democracy. It's Time to Destroy Trump & Co." In February, he posted: “Republicans are the Taliban of the USA.” In one Facebook post just days before his shooting spree, Hodgkinson wrote: “I Want to Say Mr. President, for being an ass hole you are Truly the Biggest Ass Hole We Have Ever Had in the Oval Office.” As NBC News put it: “Hodgkinson’s Facebook postings portray him as stridently anti-Republican and anti-Trump.” Despite the fact that Hodgkinson was a fanatical fan of Maddow, Democracy Now host Amy Goodman, and Sanders, that the ideas and ideology motivating his shooting spree perfectly matched — and were likely shaped by — liberals of that cohort, and that the enemies whom he sought to kill were also the enemies of Maddow and her liberal comrades, nobody rational or decent sought to blame the MSNBC host, the Vermont Senator or anyone else whose political views matched Hodgkinson's for the grotesque violence he unleashed. The reason for that is clear and indisputable: as strident and extremist as she is, Maddow has never once encouraged any of her followers to engage in violence to advance her ideology, nor has she even hinted that a mass murder of the Republican traitors, fascists and Kremlin agents about whom she rants on a nightly basis to millions of people is a just solution. It would be madness to try to assign moral or political blame to them. If we were to create a framework in which prominent people were held responsible for any violence carried out in the name of an ideology they advocate, then nobody would be safe, given that all ideologies have their misfits, psychopaths, unhinged personality types, and extremists. And thus there was little to no attempt to hold Maddow or Sanders responsible for the violent acts of one of their most loyal adherents. The same is true of the spate of mass shootings and killings by self-described black nationalists over the last several years. Back in 2017, the left-wing group Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) warned of the “Return of the Violent Black Nationalist.” In one incident, “Micah Xavier Johnson ambushed Dallas police officers during a peaceful protest against police brutality, killing five officers and wounding nine others.” Then, “ten days later, Gavin Eugene Long shot six officers, killing three, in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.” They shared the same ideology, one which drove their murderous spree: Both Johnson and Long were reportedly motivated by their strong dislike of law enforcement, grievances against perceived white dominance, and the recent fatal police shootings of unarmed black men under questionable circumstances, specifically the shooting deaths of Alton Sterling of Baton Rouge and Philando Castile in Falcon Heights, Minnesota . . . Needless to say, the ideas that motivated these two black nationalists to murder multiple people, including police officers, is part of a core ideology that is commonly heard in mainstream media venues, expressed by many if not most of the nation's most prominent liberals. Depicting the police as a white supremacist force eager to kill black people, “grievances against perceived white dominance,” and anger over “the white supremacism endemic in America’s system of governance from the country’s founding” are views that one routinely hears on MSNBC, CNN, from Democratic Party politicians, and in the op-ed pages of The New York Times and The Washington Post. Yet virtually nobody sought to blame Chris Hayes, Joy Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Jamelle Bouie or New York Times op-ed writers for these shooting sprees. Indeed, no blame was assigned to anti-police liberal pundits whose view of American history is exactly the same as that of these two killers — even though they purposely sought to murder the same enemies whom those prominent liberals target. Nobody blamed those anti-police liberals for the same reason they did not blame Maddow and Sanders for Hodgkinson's shooting spree: there is a fundamental and necessary distinction between people who use words to express ideas and demonize perceived enemies, and those who decide to go randomly and indiscriminately murder in the name of that ideology. Since that 2017 warning from the SPLC, there have been many more murders in the name of this anti-police and anti-white-supremacist ideology of black nationalism. In June of last year, the ADL said it had “linked Othal Toreyanne Resheen Wallace, the man arrested and accused of fatally shooting Daytona Beach Officer Jason Raynor on June 23, to several extremist groups preaching Black nationalism." He had “participated in several events organized by the NFAC…best known for holding armed marches protesting racial inequality and police brutality.” He had a long history of citing and following prominent radical Black anti-police and anti-White ideologues." Also in June of last year, a 25-year-old man named Noah Green drove a car into a Capitol Hill Police Officer, killing him instantly. The New York Times reported that he follows black nationalist groups, while a former college teammate “recalled that Mr. Green would often talk to fellow players about strategies to save and invest, emphasizing the need to close the wealth gap between white and Black America.” Just last month, a self-identified black nationalist named Frank James went on a terrifying shooting spree in the New York City subway system that injured dozens. He had “posted material on social media linked to black identity extremist ideologies, including the Nation of Islam, Black Panthers, Black Liberation Army, BLM and an image of black nationalist cop-killer Micah Johnson.” Angie Speaks, the brilliant writer who voices the audio version of the articles for this Substack, reported in Newsweek that James had “posted prolifically on social media and hosted a YouTube channel where he expressed Black Nationalist leanings and racial grievances." In 2019, The New York Times reported that “an assailant involved in the prolonged firefight in Jersey City, N.J., that left six people dead, including one police officer, was linked on Wednesday to the Black Hebrew Israelite movement,” and had written “anti-police posts.” Most media outlets and liberal politicians correctly refused to assign blame to pundits and politicians who spew anti-police rhetoric, or who insist that the U.S. is a nation of white supremacy: the animating ideas of these murders. Yet in these cases, they go much further with their denialism: many deny that this ideology even exists at all. “The made-up 'Black Identity Extremist' label is the latest example in a history of harassing and discrediting Black activists who dare to use their voices to call out white supremacy,” claimed the ACLU in 2019. PBS quoted a lawyer for an advocacy group as saying: “We're deeply concerned about the FBI's 'black identity extremist' designation. This is mere distraction from the very real threat of white supremacy...There is no such thing as black identity extremism.” The same year, The Intercept published an article headlined “The Strange Tale of the FBI’s Fictional ‘Black Identity Extremism' Movement,” which claimed over and over that there is no such thing as black extremism and that any attempt to ascribe violence to this ideology is a lie invented by those seeking to hide the dangers of white supremacy. It is virtually impossible to find any ideology on any part of the political spectrum that has not spawned senseless violence and mass murder by adherents. “The suspected killer of Dutch maverick politician Pim Fortuyn had environmentalist propaganda and ammunition at his home,” reported CBS News about the assassin, Volkert van der Graaf. Van der Graaf was a passionate animal rights and environmental activist who admitted “he killed the controversial right-wing leader because he considered him a danger to society.” Van der Graaf was particularly angry about what he believed was Fortuyn's anti-Muslim rhetoric. As a result, “some supporters of Fortuyn had blamed Green party leader Paul Rosenmoeller for "demonizing Fortuyn before he was gunned down in May just before general elections.” In other words, simply because the Green Party leader was highly critical of Fortuyn's ideology, some opportunistic Dutch politicians sought absurdly to blame him for Fortuyn's murder by Van der Graaf. Sound familiar? During the BLM and Antifa protests and riots of 2020, an Antifa supporter, Michael Reinoehl, was the leading suspect in the murder of a Trump supporter, Aaron J. Danielson, as he rode in a truck (Reinoehl himself was then killed by federal agents before being arrested in what appeared to be a deliberate extra-judicial execution, though an investigation cleared them of wrongdoing, as typically happens when federal agents are involved). In 2016, The New York Times reported that “the heavily armed sniper who gunned down police officers in downtown Dallas, leaving five of them dead, specifically set out to kill as many white officers as he could, officials said Friday.” The Paper of Record noted that many believed that anti-police protests would eventually lead to violent attacks on police officers: it “was the kind of retaliatory violence that people have feared through two years of protests around the country against deaths in police custody.” Then there are the murders carried out in the name of various religions. For the last three decades at least, debates have been raging about what level of responsibility, if any, should be assigned to radical Muslim preachers or Muslim politicians when individuals carry out atrocities and murders in the name of Islam. Liberals insist — correctly, in my view — that it is irresponsible and unfair to blame non-violent Muslims who preach radical versions of religious or political Islam for those who carry out violence in the name of those doctrines. Similar debates are heard with regard to Jewish extremists, such as the Israeli-American doctor Baruch Goldstein who “opened fire in the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron, killing 29 Muslim worshippers.” Many insist that the radical anti-Muslim speech of Israeli extremists is to blame, while others deny that there is any such thing as “Jewish terrorism” and that all blames lies solely with the individual who decided to resort to violence. To be sure, there have been a large number of murders and other atrocities carried out in U.S. and the West generally in the name of right-wing ideologies, in the name of white supremacy, in the name of white nationalism. The difference, though, is glaring: when murders are carried out in the name of liberal ideology, there is a rational and restrained refusal to blame liberal pundits and politicians who advocate the ideology that animated those killings. Yet when killings are carried out in the name of right-wing ideologies despised by the corporate press and mainstream pundits (or ideologies that they falsely associate with conservatism), they instantly leap to lay blame at the feet of their conservative political opponents who, despite never having advocated or even implied the need for violence, are nonetheless accused of bearing guilt for the violence — often before anything is known about the killers or their motives. In general, it is widely understood that liberal pundits and politicians are not to blame, at all, when murders are carried out in the name of the causes they support or against the enemies they routinely condemn. That is because, in such cases, we apply the rational framework that someone who does not advocate violence is not responsible for the violent acts of one's followers and fans who kill in the name of that person's ideas. Indeed, this perfectly sensible principle was enshrined by the U.S. Supreme Court in the landmark 1982 unanimous free speech ruling in Claiborne v. NAACP. That case arose out of efforts by the State of Mississippi to hold leaders of the local NAACP chapter legally liable for violence carried out by NAACP members on the ground that the leaders’ inflammatory and rage-driven speeches had “incited” and “provoked” their followers to burn white-owned stores and other stores ignoring their boycott to the ground. In ruling in favor of the NAACP, the Court stressed the crucial difference between those who peacefully advocate ideas and ideologies, even if they do so with virulence and anger (such as NAACP leaders), and those who are “inspired” by those speeches to commit violence to advance that cause. “To impose liability without a finding that the NAACP authorized — either actually or apparently — or ratified unlawful conduct would impermissibly burden the rights of political association that are protected by the First Amendment,” ruled the Court. This principle is not only a jurisprudential or constitutional one. It is also a rational one. Those who express ideas without advocating violence are not and cannot fairly be held responsible for those who decide to pick up arms in the name of those ideas, even if — as in the case of James Hodgkinson — we know for certain that the murderer listened closely to and was influenced by people like Rachel Maddow and Bernie Sanders. In such cases, we understand that it is madness, and deeply unfair, to exploit heinous murders to lay blame for the violence and killings on the doorsteps of our political adversaries. But when a revolting murder spree is carried out in the name of right-wing ideas (or ideas perceived by the corporate press to be right-wing), everything changes — instantly and completely. In such cases, often before anything is known about the murderer — indeed, literally before the corpses are even removed from the ground where they lie — there is a coordinated effort to declare that anyone who holds any views in common with the murderer has “blood on their hands” and is essentially a co-conspirator in the massacre. A very vivid and particularly gruesome display of this demented game was on display on Saturday night after a white 18-year-old, Payton Gendron, purposely targeted a part of Buffalo with a substantial black population. He entered a supermarket he knew was frequented largely by black customers and shot everyone he found, killing 10 people, most of them black. A lengthy, 180-page manifesto he left behind was filled with a wide variety of eclectic political views and ideologies. In that manifesto, Gendron described himself as a "left-wing authoritarian” and “populist” (“On the political compass I fall in the mild-moderate authoritarian left category, and I would prefer to be called a populist”). He heaped praise on an article in the socialist magazine Jacobin for its view that cryptocurrency and Bitcoin are fraudulent scams. He spoke passionately of the centrality and necessity of environmentalism, and lamented that “the state [has] long since heavily lost to its corporate backers.” He ranted against “corporate profits and the ever increasing wealth of the 1% that exploit the people for their own benefit.” And he not only vehemently rejected any admiration for political conservatism but made clear that he viewed it as an enemy to his agenda: “conservatism is corporatism in disguise, I want no part of it.” But by far the overarching and dominant theme of his worldview — the ideology that he repeatedly emphasized was the animating cause of his murder spree — was his anger and fear that white people, which he defines as those of European descent, were being eradicated by a combination of low birth rates and mass immigration. He repeatedly self-identified as a "racist” and expressed admiration for fascism as a solution. His treatise borrowed heavily from, and at times outright plagiarized, large sections of the manifesto left behind by Brenton Tarrant, the 29-year-old Australian who in 2019 murdered 51 people, mostly Muslims, at two mosques in New Zealand. Gendron's manifesto included a long list of websites and individuals who influenced his thinking, but made clear that it was Tarrant who was his primary inspiration. Other than extensive anti-Semitic sections which insisted that Jews are behind most of the world's powerful institutions and accompanying problems, it was Tarrant's deep concern about what he perceived is the disappearance of white people that was also Gendron's principal cause: If there’s one thing I want you to get from these writings, it’s that White birth rates must change. Everyday the White population becomes fewer in number. To maintain a population the people must achieve a birth rate that reaches replacement fertility levels, in the western world that is about 2.06 births per woman…. In 2050, despite the ongoing effect of sub-replacement fertility, the population figures show that the population does not decrease inline with the sub-replacement fertility levels, but actually maintains and, even in many White nations, rapidly increases. All through immigration. This is ethnic replacement. This is cultural replacement. This is racial replacement. This is WHITE GENOCIDE. Within literally an hour of the news of this murder spree in Buffalo — far too little time for anyone to have even carefully read all or most of Gendron's manifesto, and with very little known about his life or activities — much of the corporate press and liberal pundit class united to reveal the real culprit, the actual guilty party, behind this murder spree: Fox News host Tucker Carlson. So immediate and unified was this guilty verdict of mob justice that Carlson's name trended all night on Twitter along with Buffalo and Gendron. Twitter trending topics, May 14, 2022 The examples of liberal pundits instantly blaming Carlson for this murder are far too numerous to comprehensively cite. “Literally everyone warned Fox News and Tucker Carlson that this would happen and they fucking laughed and went harder,” decreed Andrew Lawrence of the incomparably sleazy and dishonest group Media Matters, spawned by ultimate sleaze-merchant David Brock. “The Buffalo shooter… subscribed to the Great Replacement theory touted by conservative elites like Tucker Carlson and believed by nearly half of GOP voters,” claimed The Washington Post's Emmanuel Felton. “See if you can tell the difference between [Gerdon's manifesto on 'white Replacement’] and standard fare on the Tucker Carlson show,” said Georgetown Professor Don Moynihan. “The racist massacre in Buffalo rest [sic] at the feet of Donald Trump, Tucker Carlson, and the GOP,” decreed Hollywood's nepotism prince Rob Reiner. The shooter was inspired by “a white nationalist conspiracy theory that Tucker Carlson has defended on his show,” was the verdict of The Huffington Post's Philip Lewis less than six hours after the shooting spree began. And on and on. That Carlson was primarily responsible for the ten dead people in Buffalo was asserted despite the fact that there was no indication that Gendron even knew who Carlson was, that he had ever watched his show, that he was influenced by him in any way, or that he admired or even liked the Fox host. Indeed, in the long list of people and places which Gendron cited as important influences on him — “Brenton Tarrant, [El Paso shooter] Patrick Crusius, [California Jewish community center killer], John Earnest, [Norwegian mass murderer] Anders Breivik, [Charleston black church murderer] Dylann Roof, etc.” — nowhere does he even allude to let alone mention any Fox News host or Carlson. To the contrary, Gendron explicitly describes his contempt for political conservatism. In a section entitled “CONSERVATISM IS DEAD, THANK GOD,” he wrote: "Not a thing has been conserved other than corporate profits and the ever increasing wealth of the 1% that exploit the people for their own benefit. Conservatism is dead. Thank god. Now let us bury it and move on to something of worth.” In this hated of conservatism, he copied his hero Brenton Tarrant, who also wrote that “conservatism is corporatism in disguise, I want no part of it,” adding about conservatives: They don’t even BELIEVE in the race, they don’t even have the gall to say race exists. And above all they don’t even care if it does. It’s profit, and profit alone that drives them, all else is secondary. The notion of a racial future or destiny is as foreign to them as social responsibilities. So desperate and uncontrolled was this ghoulish attempt to blame Carlson for the Buffalo shootings that my email inbox and social media feeds were festering with various liberal pundits demanding to know why I had not yet manifested my views of this shooting — as though it is advisable or even possible to formulate definitive opinions about a complex mass murder spree that had just taken place less than five hours before. “Still working on your talking points to defend your buddy Tucker or are you holding off on trying out your deflections until the bodies get cold?,” wrote a pundit named Jonathan Katz at 6:46 pm ET on Saturday night in a highly representative demand — just four hours after the shooter fired his first shot. Demands to assert definitive opinions about who — other than the killer — is to blame for a mass murder spree just hours after it happened can be called many things; "journalistic” and "responsible” are not among them. As it happened, I was on an overnight international flight on Saturday and into Sunday morning; I deeply apologize for my failure to monitor and speak on Twitter twenty-four hours a day. But even if I had not been 40,000 feet in the air, what kind of primitive and despicably opportunistic mindset is required not only to opine so definitively about how your political opponents are guilty of a heinous crime before the corpses are even taken away, but to demand that everyone else do so as well? In fact, Katz was particularly adamant that I opine not just on the killings but on the list of pundits I thought should be declared guilty before, in his soulless words, “the bodies get cold” — meaning that I must speak out without bothering to take the time to try to understand the basic facts about the killer and the shootings before heaping blame on a wide range of people who had no apparent involvement. But this is exactly the morally sick and exploitative liberal mentality that drives the discourse each time one of these shooting sprees happen. Rachel Maddow had far more known connections to Scalise's shooter James Hodgkinson than Carlson has to Gendron. After all, as Maddow herself acknowledged, Hodgkinson was a fan of her show and had expressed his love and admiration for her. His animating views and ideology tracked hers perfectly, with essentially no deviation. And yet — despite this ample evidence that he was influenced by her — it would never occur to me to blame Maddow for Hodgkinson's shooting spree because doing so would be completely demented, since Maddow never told or suggested to anyone that they go out and shoot the political enemies she was depicting as traitors, Kremlin agents, plotters to overthrow American democracy and replace it with a fascist dictatorship, and grave menaces to civil rights and basic freedom. The attempt to blame Carlson for the Buffalo shootings depended entirely on one claim: Carlson has previously talked about and defended the view that immigration is a scheme to “replace” Americans, and this same view was central to Gendron's ideology. Again, even if this were true, it would amount to nothing more than a claim than the shooter shared key views with Carlson and other conservative pundits — exactly as Hodgkinson shared core views with Maddow and Sanders, or the numerous murderers who killed in the name of black nationalism shared the same views on the police and American history as any number of MSNBC hosts and Democratic Party politicians, or as Pim Fortuyn's killer shared core views with animal rights activists and defenders of Muslim equality (including me). But nobody is willing to apply such a framework consistently because it converts everyone with strong political views into murderers, or at least being guilty of inciting murder. But all bets are off — all such principles or moral and logical reasoning are dispensed with — when an act of violence can be pinned on the political enemies of liberals. If a homicidal maniac kills an abortion doctor, then all peaceful pro-life activists are blamed. If an LGBT citizen is killed, then anyone who shares the views that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton had until 2012 about marriage equality is blamed. If a police officer unjustifiably kills a black citizen, all police supporters or those who dissent from liberal orthodoxy on racial politics are decreed guilty. But liberals are never at fault when right-wing politicians are murdered, or police officers are hunted and gunned down by police opponents, or an anti-abortion group is targeted with firebombing and arson, as just happened in Wisconsin, or radical Muslims engage in random acts of violence. By definition, "moral reasoning" that is applied only in one direction has nothing to do with morality and everything to do with crass, exploitative opportunism. Though it does not actually matter for purposes of assigning blame, it is utterly false to claim that Carlson's ideology — including on “replacement” — is the same as or even related to the views expressed by the killers in Buffalo or New Zealand. Indeed, in key respects, they are opposites. Both Tarrant and Gendron targeted citizens of the countries in which they carried out their murder spree. They justified doing so on the ground that any non-white citizen is automatically an "invader," regardless of how long they have been in the country or how much legal status they have. “It would have eased me if I knew all the blacks I would be killing were criminals or future criminals, but then I realized all black people are replacers just by existing in White countries,” Gendron wrote. To claim that Carlson ever said anything remotely like this or believes it is just an outright lie. Indeed, with great frequency, Carlson says that the priority of the U.S. Government should be protection of and concern for American citizens of all races. Tarrant and Gendron believe and explicitly say that any non-white citizen of a European country is automatically an “invader” who must be killed and/or deported to turn the country all-white. Carlson believes the exact opposite: that the proper citizenry of the United States is multi-racial and that Black Americans and Latin Americans and Asian-Americans are every bit as much U.S. citizens, with all of the same claims to rights and protections, as every other American citizen. His anti-immigration and "replacement” argument is aimed at the idea — one that had been long mainstream on the left until about a decade ago — that large, uncontrolled immigration harms American citizens who are already here. There is no racial hierarchy in Carlson's view of American citizenship and to claim that there is is nothing short of a defamatory lie. But even if these liberal smear artists were telling the truth, and Carlson's view of immigration and “replacement” were similar or even precisely identical to Gendron's, one could certainly say that Carlson holds immoral and despicable views. But he would still no more carry blame for the Buffalo murders than liberal pundits have blood on their hands for countless massacres carried out in the name of political causes they support and theories they espouse, whether it be animus toward the police or anti-imperialism or opposition to Israeli occupation of the West Bank or the belief that the United States is a fundamentally racist country or the view that the GOP is a fascist menace to all things decent. The distinction between peaceful advocacy even of noxious ideas and those who engage in violence in the name of such ideas is fundamental to notions of fairness, justice and the ability to speak freely. But if you really want to claim that a public figure has "blood on their hands" every time someone murders in the name of ideas and ideologies they support, then the list of people you should be accusing of murder is a very, very long one indeed. To support the independent journalism we are doing here, please subscribe, obtain a gift subscription for others and/or share the article Tyler Durden Sun, 05/15/2022 - 18:30.....»»
A Myth Is Born: How CDC, FDA, & Media Wove A Web Of Ivermectin Lies That Outlives The Truth
A Myth Is Born: How CDC, FDA, & Media Wove A Web Of Ivermectin Lies That Outlives The Truth Via RESCUE with Michael Capuzzo Substack, New Mexico officials admit they were wrong: Two people died from covid. NOT from ivermectin. Yet the CDC generated the nation's highest health alert and a thousand fake headlines on false cases. Linda Bonvie and Mary Beth Pfeiffer When a Texas cattleman, seventy-nine, died last September in New Mexico after contracting covid, his family never anticipated the worldwide headlines that would ensue. In a ballyhooed press conference, New Mexico Human Services Secretary Dr. David Scrase, the state’s top health chief, announced New Mexico’s first ivermectin “overdose,” soon adding a second fatality allegedly from “ivermectin toxicity.” An ornament with a photo of the Texas cattleman, whose death was falsely attributed to ivermectin and used as part of a deliberate effort to make that perfectly safe drug appear to be highly dangerous, is lovingly hung on the family Christmas tree by his daughter. Now, Scrase has acknowledged that his repeated, what he called “offhand,” assertions were groundless. Two deaths were not caused by ivermectin, a long-used generic drug that was emerging as a covid treatment. Instead, he said that the pair died because they “actually just delayed their care with covid.” That is a big difference. Scrase backpedaled on December 1 in a little-noticed online press briefing and only after we pressed his agency to provide evidence for its claims of so-called “ivermectin deaths.” Officials had repeatedly said they were awaiting a toxicology report on the cattleman’s death. Yet we learned that the report was never even ordered or done, and, moreover, the man’s death was ruled by the state’s coroner as being from “natural” causes. Not a single media outlet reported Scrase’s admission, even as dozens, including the The Hill and The New York Times, had eagerly covered his original assertions about ivermectin, an anti-parasitic drug awarded the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2015. “I don’t want more people to die,” read one early headline, quoting Scrase. “It’s the wrong medicine for something really serious,” Scrase said in the Times article. Doctors, scientists, and toxicologists worldwide were puzzled by the assertions, because ivermectin is an extraordinarily safe, FDA-approved drug. A fixture on the WHO’s list of 100 essential medicines all hospital systems are recommended to carry, nearly four billion doses have been given in four decades. New Mexico became a key player in a broad pattern of governmental deception late last summer to portray ivermectin as dangerous, in tandem with three related developments. Research strongly supported the drug’s efficacy against covid; prescriptions were soaring; and public health officials were single-mindedly focused not on treatment but on vaccination. We previously reported that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s tweeted warning last August against using ivermectin meant for livestock was prompted by incorrect—and unverified—information from Mississippi. Health officials there had posted an alert suggesting the state’s poison control center was deluged with hundreds of calls over ingestion of livestock ivermectin; in reality, we found, four reports were received. But, fueled by bits of contorted evidence like this, the anti-ivermectin train was unstoppable. We have now learned that, in the rush to bury a drug described as “astonishingly safe” and long used globally to quell animal and human parasites, FDA was not alone. Emails we obtained from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control show that an influential August 26 national health alert on ivermectin was spurred, like the FDA tweet, by a sliver of evidence: just three cases of alleged ivermectin side effects, two involving animal formulations. No patient died; one appeared to have been hospitalized, and one declined any medical help. Nonetheless, those three reports, obtained by Atlanta-based CDC from the Georgia poison control center, sealed the decision to issue the nation’s highest-level health warning, according to the emails. Shortly after learning of three cases, CDC's Michael Yeh writes, “we have evidence of significant toxicity.” Referring to planning for the health alert, “the consensus was that unless we’re seeing bad adverse effects from ivermectin, we’d hold off,” wrote a CDC medical toxicity officer, Dr. Michael Yeh, in an August 17 email. “Now it sounds like we have evidence of significant toxicity.” That email was written seventy-two minutes after brief information on three reports arrived in a separate email. While CDC’s intention might have been to protect people, the alert is emblematic of what had become a national obsession: Portray an early treatment for covid—whether in the animal or human form—as potentially toxic. CDC hopped aboard. In an email later that day, Yeh laid out the evidence. The most serious case involved a man, seventy-seven, who had was said to have taken a dose of ivermectin “apparently meant for an 1800 lb. bovine.” He had “hallucinations and tremors, which improved but he was eventually diagnosed with COVID-19” for which he needed only supplemental oxygen, Yeh notes. In two other cases, a woman who took the human form of the drug was said to have suffered “some confusion.” Another woman had “subjective visual disturbances” after taking “a product meant for sheep” but declined medical help. These side effects are in keeping with what the National Institutes of Health calls a “well-tolerated” anti-parasitic drug with such adverse effects as “dizziness, pruritis, nausea, or diarrhea.” French researchers published a review last March of 350 ivermectin articles in the medical literature and found adverse effects to be “infrequent and usually mild to moderate.” The study, by the French drugmaker MedinCell, noted that no deaths were reported even after accidental overdoses or suicide attempts. In view of ivermectin’s well-established safety profile, our request for CDC documents under the Freedom of Information Act sought the rationale for the health alert and specifically asked for the data CDC used from the American Association of Poison Control Centers, to which state centers report. (AAPCC had refused to provide it.) In response to the FOIA request, CDC asserted, quite remarkably, that it “no longer possesses or has access to the data” because its “licensing agreement” with AAPCC had lapsed. The data might have specified, for example, just how many calls were related either to animal or human formulations; the alert instead lumps all reports together, making it difficult to fathom the extent of livestock ivermectin use. The CDC asserts in a letter to us that it no longer possesses the data on which a national health alert was based. An increase in ivermectin calls to poison control centers in 2021 is not in dispute, especially as doctors learned of studies showing fewer deaths, shorter hospitalizations, and outpatient success. Poison control centers often see upticks in calls when new drugs come into use, with many callers seeking only information. Centers also field calls on old, long-established medications. Acetaminophen alone generated 47,000 reports in 2019 and led to 164 deaths, according to the AAPCC. This context, of course, was missing from CDC’s alert. Calls to poison control centers for use of animal and human ivermectin grew five- to eight-fold from “pre-pandemic levels,” the alert ominously reported. At the same time, it said, ivermectin prescriptions had soared twenty-four-fold—in a perfectly legal trend led by physicians but one the CDC clearly found unacceptable and alarming. No distinction was made between animal and human formulations in the alert, which was peppered with phrases like “ivermectin misuse and overdose;” “seizures, coma, and death;” “sheep drench,” “severe illness,” and “rapid increase.” The message: Don’t use either form, even as seventy-one studies show 64 percent of 50,180 patients improved after taking ivermectin for covid. Despite the alert and New Mexico’s unfounded pronouncements, no one has died from ivermectin poisoning among 2,112 cases logged by AAPCC from January 1 to December 14, 2021. Two percent of those reports, about forty-two, involved a “major” effect, an AAPCC bulletin states. Seventy percent were dismissed as having no effect, “nontoxic exposure,” and the like. One category of those calls might rightfully have been classified as anti-ivermectin hysteria. New Mexico, for example, urged citizens to report any known ivermectin use to the state’s poison control center, even if “someone you know has taken it.” We asked Dr. Paul Marik, a founder of the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance, his thoughts on the effort to vilify ivermectin as dangerous. “Ivermectin is one of the safest medications on this planet; far safer than aspirin or acetaminophen,” he said. “This is a fairy tale. Disney could not come up with a better fairy tale.” But it was no kind of fantasy for the cattleman’s family when he got sick. It was a painful experience with a politicized health system. A “Very Puzzling” Phone Call It wasn’t a secret that a cattleman, who died while in New Mexico from covid, took an animal formulation of ivermectin. It is a drug he was well versed in using, having routinely administered it to his herds in Texas. Others in the family also used Ivomec, a liquid formulation of ivermectin for cattle, since news spread of ivermectin’s effectiveness against covid. “Practically everyone I know takes it,” we were told by a close family friend and business associate of the Texan. (We are withholding the man’s name at the family’s request.) Ivermectin is just one of 167 drugs tested for safety and approved by the FDA for both animals and humans. Yet those who take either form of ivermectin for covid have been characterized as being anti-science and influenced by “misinformation.” The Texan is one of two individuals who, according to repeated statements from New Mexico officials, died from “ivermectin toxicity.” While their identities were not revealed by the department of health, a source familiar with the cases released them to us during this investigation. Documents and interviews with those knowledgeable about the death of the rancher tell a different story than the narrative put forth by New Mexico health officials. When the cattleman arrived at the ER on the evening of September 2 with his wife, he was soon diagnosed as suffering from acute dehydration as well as being covid positive. His daughter arrived at the hospital several hours later. In an interview, she told of the surprise eightieth birthday party for her dad the weekend before, where eight of the eleven family members attending ended up with covid. Everyone seemed to have mild symptoms, she recalled. With her dad in New Mexico and not feeling well, she suggested he be checked out. “My father was not very good at keeping himself hydrated,” she said, and at that point he didn’t seem to be drinking at all. He arrived at the hospital dehydrated to the point that his kidneys had become damaged, doctors told the family. Lacking a proper dialysis machine at the Lincoln County Medical Center, the family was told that they were trying to locate another hospital to send him to. Unfortunately, he never made it out of Ruidoso, dying on September 3. But what happened while his wife and daughter anxiously waited outside the ICU, soon after being informed that the Texan was likely going to pass away, struck them as most peculiar. His daughter recalled a “very puzzling” phone call her mother received—so disturbing, in fact, that she felt like “yanking the phone from her.” An unknown man was on the line asking if her father took ivermectin. It was the only time she remembers that particular drug being discussed in the hospital. “I feel like they were pushing her. It was really irritating,” she said, adding, “it was not a doctor or nurse, but mom cannot remember who it was or what they represented.” They were most interested, she recalled, in grilling her mother about her dad’s use of Ivomec. At the very next press briefing, Dr. Scrase announced that a “reliable source” reported the state’s “first death” from someone who took ivermectin. While he hedged his bets about the role of ivermectin—and mentioned delayed care—he nonetheless repeatedly characterized the man’s death and one other as specifically being caused by ivermectin. However, the cattleman’s death certificate, filed at the end of September, says otherwise. It stated he passed away from “natural” causes. His death was not listed as requiring any type of “pending investigation,” and the medical examiner’s office confirmed the fact that no autopsy or toxicology report was done. But Dr. Scrase’s original tale proved to be very popular with the media. USA Today liked it so much the paper released several versions. “Two die of ivermectin poisoning,” it announced the same day the death certificate was officiated. Five days after that, a headline in The Hill trumpeted, “New Mexico reports two deaths from ivermectin.” The New Mexico Department of Health has yet to respond to any questions about why a straightforward correction was not made to the media early on regarding the two deaths that were erroneously attributed to ivermectin. It is also not clear why at a recent press briefing the agency was continuing to perpetuate this fallacy even after admitting it was untruthful, rather than correcting the record—and why they have alleged another ivermectin-related death, again without offering any evidence to that effect. The second supposed ivermectin death involved a thirty-eight-year-old woman from Cuba, New Mexico, reportedly of Navajo heritage. An autopsy was done, but the results have yet to be released. While Scrase has acknowledged that the two deaths were from covid, not ivermectin, he nonetheless announced what he called yet a “third” ivermectin death at his December 1 briefing. The new death, Scrase said, is a “60-year-old man who took a horse preparation. This gentleman took 150 milligrams, [suffered] liver failure, kidney failure and actually died from the ivermectin without the covid.” As with the first two cases, the cause of death remains to be seen. According to Dr. Marik, 150 milligrams of ivermectin can be safely tolerated. “I do not know of a single case of liver failure and organ failure due to ivermectin,” he wrote in an email. Both the CDC and New Mexico Department of Health declined to answer questions for this article. Despite ongoing requests by the New Mexico Department of Health for residents to report any ivermectin use, as this slide displayed during a December 1 press conference shows, only 29 calls came into the state’s poison control center for most all of 2021. The graphic also states that ivermectin caused three deaths in the state, despite the fact that during that very same press briefing it was acknowledged that the first two of the alleged deaths were due to covid, not ivermectin (with no evidence released to support the third claim). The CDC emails suggest it took very little to convince the agency to issue a national warning about the use of ivermectin. Details on those three cases are scant, the emails show. Ivermectin dosages are missing or, in one case, described as “concentration unknown.” One woman “was sent to the hospital, but her baseline mental status was unclear.” Another woman was to be contacted for follow-up after declining aid, but there is no indication this was done. These anecdotal bits are the threads from which a mythical tapestry about so-called “ivermectin toxicity” has been woven. This myth lives on in easily accessed online articles. Among them: Mississippi’s health alert on August 19 said 70 percent of poison-control calls were for ingestion of livestock ivermectin. The actual figure was 2 percent; it was not corrected for forty-six days. FDA claimed last March to have “received multiple reports” of injury and hospitalization after people took livestock ivermectin. In reality, the agency relied on four reports, a spokesperson said in an email. CDC officials referenced the FDA “consumer warning” when planning their own contribution to the myth of ivermectin harm. It matters little that false Mississippi figures were corrected (at our behest) by The New York Times, twice, and The Washington Post. What matters is the hurricane of fear, whipped up by New Mexico, Mississippi, the FDA, and CDC—and abetted by media—made ivermectin into something it was not. So where do we stand as vaccines fail and cases rise? On October 28, WisPolitics.com reported the case of a family that failed to convince a court to give FDA-approved ivermectin to their dying loved one. “There have been multiple reports nationally,” the website reported, “of people taking the version of the drug intended for animals to combat COVID-19 and sickening themselves in the process.” Unsupported in the medical literature, the false image of ivermectin convinced doctors in that case to suggest that “the prescribed dosage may be lethal.” Indeed, the invented peril, rather than promise, of ivermectin has become ingrained in the national media and consciousness. That is the story that lives. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/24/2021 - 23:15.....»»