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"The Fed Has No Idea How Bad It Is Out There" So Here"s Some Context...

"The Fed Has No Idea How Bad It Is Out There" So Here's Some Context... To quote Jim Cramer circa August 2007, "the Fed has no idea how bad it is out there" and 15 years later his rant is just as applicable, in a market that has rarely been uglier. So to help the Fed - and all those other traders who still refuse to panic even though they probably should (according to Goldman, over the past 15 years, there have been 36 daily selloffs of 4% or more, and the VIX was never as low as it was on Wednesday), here's some context courtesy of DB's Jim Reid to show just how bad it is. Quoting DB's chief equity strategist, Binky Chadha, Reid notes that the current -18.7% correction is actually the 6th largest non-recession (so far) correction in post WWII history, only behind > July-98 (around LTCM and Russia default), > Sept-18 (QT and Fed hikes finally bite), > May-46 (post WWII), > Dec-61 (so called Kennedy slide) and finally > Aug-87 (including the Oct-87 crash). Of course, if one includes recessions, there are fifteen larger post WWII sell-offs with the median recession sell-off at -23.9%. From here, the Deutsche Banker - who alone among his Wall Street peers has forecast a US recession in 2023 - expects the US to move towards the average recession decline in the near term which would put the S&P 500 at 3650 (current 3900), a similar near-term view to that of Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson. At this point, markets become remarkably binary. In the event we do slide into recession, the Deutsche Bank strategists see the sell-off going well above average, i.e., into the upper half of the historical range given elevated initial overvaluation. This means -35% to -40% or S&P 500 at 3000. However, in the event we do not and growth and the labor market hold up in 2022 - which they won't -  they expect the market to rally back to 4700-4800 by year-end as equity positioning rebounds from very low levels. And just to add another twist, while Binky’s baseline view is that the economy doesn’t slide into recession this year and the S&P 500 ends the year at 4750. However, that's before the economy does slide into a recession next year. So clearly, Jim writes, "if the recession then comes in 2023 markets can again price in a recession and see dramatic falls", meaning non-stop market rollercoasters for the next two years. Indeed, as Reid concludes, "one thing is clear. This is not a market for the faint hearted!" There is more in the full piece from Binky Chadha for valuations, sell-offs in historical context, signs of late (but not yet end) cycle, sector analysis and positioning, available to professional subs in the usual place. Tyler Durden Sun, 05/22/2022 - 18:25.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytMay 22nd, 2022

How Public Pensions Turn Cities Into Unlivable Hellholes

How Public Pensions Turn Cities Into Unlivable Hellholes Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com, “It’s like going to the ATM in Vegas and then going to the roulette wheel and it comes up red and you go back to the ATM.” The remark was recently made by Steve Mermell.  The man retired last year as city manager of Pasadena, California.  He knows a thing or two about how borrowing to enhance pension fund returns can result in spectacular losses. The Wall Street Journal article did not clarify whether red was a winning turn of the roulette wheel or not.  Within the article’s context it didn’t really matter. The main point was that public pension funds are grossly underfunded.  Consequently, more and more pension funds are borrowing money to play the markets.  The goal is to boost returns to cover their massive funding gaps. If you recall, public-sector retirement plans offer defined benefits, where retiree pension checks are calculated based on salaries and years of service.  Private employers, on the other hand, generally offer defined-contribution plans (like 401Ks), where payouts are based on market returns. If you live long enough, and are a recipient of a public pension fund you will get out far more than you put in.  If you work in the private sector, there’s a good chance you will outlive your retirement savings. Certainly, pension funds can attempt to fill their funding gaps by requesting increases in yearly contributions from governments and workers.  But the public-employee unions go full ape when such measures are proposed.  So the remaining option is to take on greater risk.  What could go wrong? The late Robert Citron could tell you.  As he discovered the hard way, even the most calculated bets will eventually go against you. Something Special Nearly 20-years ago, while providing consulting services to a county sanitation district, we crossed paths with a grumpy fellow who had only a secondary interest in providing industrious work.  His primary interest was deliberating on his upcoming retirement; he could bend your ear off. Between sips of coffee and bites of a glazed donut one Friday morning, he told us of an important milestone that would be reached within six months.  This would be achieved by the coalescing of two critical marks: (1) his 55th birthday, and (2) exactly 36 years of doing time at the district. As he explained it, after 55 years of age the retirement formula went from 2 to 2.5.  So after collecting a paycheck every two weeks for the past 36 years, something special was about to happen. He could take a factor of 2.5 and times it by 36 to equal 90.  Specifically, he would now receive 90 percent of his final year’s pay for the rest of his life.  He set his retirement date accordingly. Mr. Grumpy was an entitled member of the roughly $469 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS).  The nation’s largest public pension fund.  It’s so large it takes 2,843 full time equivalent positions to administer it. At last count, there were over 2 million members in the CalPERS retirement system.  Some of these people may have done good work prior to retirement.  Others were likely career loafers.  All, without question, did their time with purpose and intent and eyes squarely on the prize. Are they feeling lucky? Starting this month, CalPERS will add leverage for the first time in its 90-year history.  Perhaps it will all work out just fine.  Regardless, the fund’s managers have their work cut out for them. Legacy Costs Officially, CalPERS has roughly two-thirds of the money it needs to pay benefits that state and local governments have promised their workers.  But this is based on an assumption of future investment returns averaging 7 percent a year.  Historically, CalPERS’ returns have fallen well short of this assumption. Over the last 20 years, the average annual return has been 5.5 percent.  Hence, the unofficial gap between what CalPERS has and the promises it owes is much larger than advertised. For instance, if CalPERS investment returns assumption was lowered to its historical average, unfunded liability would rise from $160 billion to over $200 billion.  For this reason, the mega pension fund will now attempt to lever its returns. In the case of Pasadena and Steve Mermell’s experience, funding the local pension plan it once offered to its police and firefighters has been a decades long struggle.  In 1999, in an effort to keep pace with its inflation-adjusted benefits, Pasadena borrowed $102 million through municipal bonds.  The borrowed money went towards its pension obligations. The idea was simple enough.  The pension fund could immediately begin earning on a larger amount of money, while the bonds would be paid back gradually. But then the stock market crashed during the dot com bust in 2001-03.  Yet the city still had to make bond payments at interest rates north of 6 percent. Pasadena then went back to the ATM in 2004 with another pension-obligation bond.  Several years later, in 2007-09, the stock market crashed again.  Still, the city’s pension legacy costs remain.  As noted by the Wall Street Journal: “The local police and fire pension plan has been closed for nearly 50 years.  Pension recipients have dwindled to fewer than 180.  But the city still owes about $135 million in bond debt on the plan.  Payments on it are expected to be about $6 million in 2022.” What a complete cluster. Following Pasadena’s closure of its local pension plan, public pensions are managed by CalPERS.  To add insult, the city’s annual contributions to CalPERS have doubled since 2015, to about $70 million last year.  That’s more than the city spends on transportation. What to make of it… How Public Pensions Turn Cities into Unlivable Hellholes Without question, gambling with public money is a foolish thing to do.  Nonetheless, many pension funds – like CalPERS – are now using leverage to juice returns. According to a Municipal Market Analytics analysis of Bloomberg data, more than 100 city, county, state, and other governments borrowed for their pension funds last year.  This is twice the highest number that did so in any prior year. Standing behind these pension funds are state and local taxpayers – that’s you, acting as the ATM.  Moreover, when the investment returns of public pension funds fall short, governments are primarily responsible for filling the void.  This means cutting other spending and services or increasing taxes. Covering pension fund obligations is a massive drag on state and local government finances.  The fact is, there’s a legion of public workers out there who’ve been promised a retirement that’s no longer affordable. These grand promises must be broken. You can witness the effects when traversing through just about every city in America that has been in existence for more than 60 years.  By repeatedly reallocating spending from much needed services, the present and future conditions of cities and municipalities are being transformed to unlivable hellholes. Your neighbor, who retired from the city over 25 years ago, may frequently lament the shoddy conditions of the streets and sidewalks.  He may bemoan the lack of resources to address burgeoning homeless encampments and the mobs of mentally ill zombies flailing about on the tired asphalt. Yet it has never occurred to him that he and his retired cohorts are receiving money that should be used to maintain basic municipal services.  The generous promises made many decades ago – the entitlements – are now destroying the world around them. *  *  * A massive wave of municipal and corporate bankruptcies is cresting.  The longer the bear market runs, the greater the collateral damage.  Don’t leave your retirement in the hands of others.  Instead, consider trying simple, practical steps everyday Americans can take to protect their wealth and financial privacy.  The steps are documented in the Financial First Aid Kit.  If you’d like to find out more about this important and unique publication, and how to acquire a copy, stop by here today! Tyler Durden Sat, 07/02/2022 - 17:30.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge8 hr. 3 min. ago

Here"s Why Seattle Genetics (SGEN) is a Great Momentum Stock to Buy

Does Seattle Genetics (SGEN) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even though momentum is a popular stock characteristic, it can be tough to define. Debate surrounding which are the best and worst metrics to focus on is lengthy, but the Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at Seattle Genetics (SGEN), a company that currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B. We also talk about price change and earnings estimate revisions, two of the main aspects of the Momentum Style Score.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Seattle Genetics currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?Let's discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for SGEN that show why this biotechnology company shows promise as a solid momentum pick.Looking at a stock's short-term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum, since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment. It's also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.For SGEN, shares are up 8.39% over the past week while the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry is up 7.08% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 33.47% compares favorably with the industry's 1.21% performance as well.While any stock can see its price increase, it takes a real winner to consistently beat the market. That is why looking at longer term price metrics -- such as performance over the past three months or year -- can be useful as well. Shares of Seattle Genetics have increased 17.88% over the past quarter, and have gained 13.41% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved -17.26% and -9.6%, respectively.Investors should also pay attention to SGEN's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. SGEN is currently averaging 1,789,297 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score also takes into account trends in estimate revisions, in addition to price changes. Please note that estimate revision trends remain at the core of Zacks Rank as well. A nice path here can help show promise, and we have recently been seeing that with SGEN.Over the past two months, 2 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost SGEN's consensus estimate, increasing from -$3.52 to -$3.50 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 2 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.Bottom LineGiven these factors, it shouldn't be surprising that SGEN is a #2 (Buy) stock and boasts a Momentum Score of B. If you're looking for a fresh pick that's set to soar in the near-term, make sure to keep Seattle Genetics on your short list. Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. It’s a little-known chemical company that’s up 65% over last year, yet still dirt cheap. With unrelenting demand, soaring 2022 earnings estimates, and $1.5 billion for repurchasing shares, retail investors could jump in at any time. This company could rival or surpass other recent Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in little more than 9 months and NVIDIA which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Seagen Inc. (SGEN): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJun 30th, 2022

The Influencer"s Dilemma (Why Elon Musk Is Probably Right About Twitter)

The Influencer's Dilemma (Why Elon Musk Is Probably Right About Twitter) Authored by Omid Malekan via Medium.com, The following in an excerpt from my new book: Re-Architecting Trust, The Curse of History and the Crypto Cure for Money, Markets and Platforms. It provides context on the ongoing breakdown of traditional social medial. The prevalence of digital fakery is an underrated contributor to the breakdown of respect in every online setting. It leads to a toxic environment where the worst behaviors are rewarded. To see why, we must first recognize that online influence is valuable. Having a lot of likes, retweets, positive reviews, and followers is an asset, one that increasingly impacts the offline economy. A restaurant that has a lot of five-star reviews is more likely to get new customers and a pundit who has a lot of Twitter subscribers is more likely to get a book deal. The digital attestations of likes and followers and so on are a form of social capital, and everyone is motivated to acquire as much as they can. The question is how. Some people try to acquire their social capital by doing something useful, like running a quality restaurant or putting out valuable content. They hustle, put in long hours, and work to earn every like, retweet, positive review, and follower. This is the social capital equivalent of proof of work: do the work, earn the reward. Other people cheat. They don’t put in the hours or hustle, they instead buy enough fake followers and reviews on the black market to make it look like they did. This is the social capital version of a Sybil attack. On any centralized platform such as Seamless or Twitter, the second group is guaranteed to win. As the comedian Groucho Marx once said, “the secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you’ve got it made.” To understand why, recall that the target audience — the consumers who order food from an app, watch TikTok videos, and subscribe to Instagram feeds — have no idea what’s real and what’s fake. Facebook doesn’t tell them what percentage of an Instagram influencer’s likes were generated by a click farm (if it did, advertising revenues would plummet). This lack of information puts every would-be influencer in a bind. If viewers can’t tell the difference between what’s real and what’s fake, then what’s the best strategy for becoming popular? Should they work hard to earn real users or pay up to acquire fake ones? The answer is both. After all, those who decide to both build and buy will always be more popular than those who only do one. In game theory, this is known as the Nash equilibrium. In real life, it’s a race to the bottom. But now we have a new problem because Instagram users aren’t that gullible. They understand that some chicanery is going on. There are too many content creators who are suspiciously popular, and the numbers only ever go up, sometimes too quickly. There are also academic studies and media reports that confirm their suspicions. But there is no obvious tell, so the most reasonable response from the users perspective is to assume that everything is a little fake, and to discount every number — every like, retweet, five-star review, and follower count — accordingly. Since tomorrow will bring more fakery, then discount a little more with each passing day. It helps that the human brain is uniquely adept at performing this invisible calculus. People have been doing it for millennia. Not with social capital of course, but with money. Online social capital in any centralized setting is an inflationary currency. It does not enjoy scarcity of any kind and is easy to counterfeit so its purchasing power falls on a daily basis. That’s why it takes much higher numbers to impress users today than it used to. Here the world’s centralized platform operators are even more irresponsible than central banks. The Federal Reserve might be profligate with its printing, but it at least tries to preserve the integrity of its currency after it’s been issued. That’s why $100 bills are difficult to counterfeit. One hundred (or one hundred thousand) likes on any social media platform, on the other hand, are easy to counterfeit. In economics, Gresham’s Law is the phenomenon by which “bad money eventually drives out good.” It’s more of a principle than a law but explains why lower quality representations of the same currency, like diluted coins with less gold that still have the same face value, tend to force higher quality money out of circulation. It’s best understood from the perspective of ordinary people making sensible decisions. In any economy where legal tender laws force citizens to treat coins of different metal content as having the same value, people are going to try to spend the diluted coins (to get rid of them) and save the denser ones. Maybe the laws will be changed, or the currency will fail, and all coins will have to be melted down to capture their pure metallic value. A similar phenomenon also explains why Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a store of value, not the medium of exchange it was invented to be. The more fiat money that is printed by the world’s central banks, the greater the perception that fiat is a form of bad money, leading people to want to spend their dollars and hoard their bitcoins. Kabessa’s Law is the social capital equivalent of this dynamic, named after a popular crypto pundit who first postulated the dilemma that every would-be influencer faces in a centralized setting — to build or to buy. This law states that counterfeit online social capital eventually drives out the quality kind, taking over. The higher the percentage of fake activity on any platform, the lower the incentive to bother trying to create the real deal. Put differently, the easier it is to buy one thousand Twitter followers, the lower the incentive to try to earn one. *  *  * About the book: Re-Architecting Trust is a thought-provoking exploration of how decentralized blockchain networks and the digital assets that they enable can reinvent our most important trust frameworks by creating new types of money, reinvigorating how we transact the old kind, disintermediating the least trustworthy financial institutions, and enabling meaningful business models for artists and influencers. You can order a copy here Tyler Durden Wed, 06/29/2022 - 20:20.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 29th, 2022

Here"s Why Bellus Health (BLU) is a Great Momentum Stock to Buy

Does Bellus Health (BLU) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at Bellus Health (BLU), a company that currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A. We also talk about price change and earnings estimate revisions, two of the main aspects of the Momentum Style Score.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Bellus Health currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?In order to see if BLU is a promising momentum pick, let's examine some Momentum Style elements to see if this drug developer holds up.Looking at a stock's short-term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum, since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment. It is also useful to compare a security to its industry, as this can help investors pinpoint the top companies in a particular area.For BLU, shares are up 3.35% over the past week while the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry is up 7.11% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 9.78% compares favorably with the industry's 0.28% performance as well.While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. Over the past quarter, shares of Bellus Health have risen 21.52%, and are up 177.13% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved -13.81% and -7.45%, respectively.Investors should also take note of BLU's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. Right now, BLU is averaging 780,716 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with BLU.Over the past two months, 2 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost BLU's consensus estimate, increasing from -$0.87 to -$0.73 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 2 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.Bottom LineGiven these factors, it shouldn't be surprising that BLU is a #2 (Buy) stock and boasts a Momentum Score of A. If you're looking for a fresh pick that's set to soar in the near-term, make sure to keep Bellus Health on your short list. 5 Stocks Set to Double Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2021. Previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%. Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Bellus Health Inc. (BLU): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJun 28th, 2022

Here"s Why Chico"s FAS (CHS) is a Great Momentum Stock to Buy

Does Chico's FAS (CHS) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even though momentum is a popular stock characteristic, it can be tough to define. Debate surrounding which are the best and worst metrics to focus on is lengthy, but the Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at Chico's FAS (CHS), a company that currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B. We also talk about price change and earnings estimate revisions, two of the main aspects of the Momentum Style Score.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Chico's FAS currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?Let's discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for CHS that show why this clothing chain shows promise as a solid momentum pick.Looking at a stock's short-term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum, since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment. It's also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.For CHS, shares are up 1.29% over the past week while the Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is down 4.31% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 43.91% compares favorably with the industry's 1.35% performance as well.Considering longer term price metrics, like performance over the last three months or year, can be advantageous as well. Shares of Chico's FAS have increased 13.85% over the past quarter, and have gained 1.25% in the last year. On the other hand, the S&P 500 has only moved -15.16% and -9.39%, respectively.Investors should also pay attention to CHS's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. CHS is currently averaging 3,236,064 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with CHS.Over the past two months, 2 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost CHS's consensus estimate, increasing from $0.46 to $0.72 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 2 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.Bottom LineGiven these factors, it shouldn't be surprising that CHS is a #2 (Buy) stock and boasts a Momentum Score of B. If you're looking for a fresh pick that's set to soar in the near-term, make sure to keep Chico's FAS on your short list. 5 Stocks Set to Double Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2021. Previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%. Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Chico's FAS, Inc. (CHS): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJun 22nd, 2022

The Fed’s Hawkish Bite Left Its Mark on the S&P 500 Stocks

By raising interest rates, the Fed poured cold water on the red-hot markets and finally chilled investors’ enthusiasm. What’s next for asset prices? Work in Progress With the Fed’s hawkish hammer pounding the financial markets, the selling pressure coincided with events unseen since 2008. Moreover, with the work in progress to reduce inflation poised to […] By raising interest rates, the Fed poured cold water on the red-hot markets and finally chilled investors’ enthusiasm. What’s next for asset prices? Work in Progress With the Fed’s hawkish hammer pounding the financial markets, the selling pressure coincided with events unseen since 2008. Moreover, with the work in progress to reduce inflation poised to push asset prices even lower, I’ve long warned that we’re likely far from a medium-term bottom. For example, I wrote on May 31: .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more With recession fears decelerating and optimism returning to Wall Street, the bulls are brimming with confidence. Please see below: Source: Investing.com (…) [However], while U.S. stock indices rallied sharply last week, guess what else participated in the festivities? Source: Investing.com To explain, the table above tallies the performance of commodities over various time periods. If you analyze the vertical red rectangle, notice how most commodities rallied alongside equities. As a result, the thesis was on full display.  When economic optimism elicits rallies on Wall Street, that same optimism uplifts commodities. Therefore, if the Fed tries to appease investors and passively attack inflation, it will only spur more inflation.  As such, the idea of a “positive feedback loop” where ‘stocks rally, inflation cools [and] Fed tightening expectations abate” is extremely unrealistic. In fact, it’s the exact opposite. The only bullish outcome is if economically-sensitive commodities collapse on their own. Then, input inflation would subside and eventually cool output inflation, and the Fed could turn dovish. However, the central bank has been awaiting this outcome for two years. Thus, my comments from Apr. 6 remain critical. If investors continue to bid up stock prices, the follow-through from commodities will only intensify the pricing pressures in the coming months. Therefore, investors are flying blind once again. To that point, the S&P 500 reversed sharply over the last several days, and the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCI) followed suit. For context, the S&P GSCI contains 24 commodities from all sectors: six energy products, five industrial metals, eight agricultural products, three livestock products, and two precious metals. However, energy accounts for roughly 54% of the index’s movement. Please see below: To explain, the green line above tracks the S&P GSCI, while the black line above tracks the S&P 500. As you can see, hawkish rhetoric and a 75 basis point rate hike had their desired effect. Furthermore, I warned on Apr. 6 that higher asset prices are antithetical to the Fed’s 2% inflation goal. In a nutshell: the more the bull gores, the more inflation bites. I wrote: Please remember that the Fed needs to slow the U.S. economy to calm inflation, and rising asset prices are mutually exclusive to this goal. Therefore, officials should keep hammering the financial markets until investors finally get the message. Moreover, with the Fed in inflation-fighting mode and reformed doves warning that the U.S. economy “could teeter” as the drama unfolds, the reality is that there is no easy solution to the Fed’s problem. To calm inflation, it has to kill demand. As that occurs, investors should suffer a severe crisis of confidence. Speaking of which, the fundamental thesis continues to unfold as expected. For example, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Jun. 17: “The Federal Reserve’s strong commitment to our price stability mandate contributes to the widespread confidence in the dollar as a store of value.” Moreover, “The Fed’s commitment to both our dual mandate and financial stability encourages the international community to hold and use dollars.” As a result, while I’ve long warned that unanchored inflation would elicit a hawkish response from the Fed and uplift the USD Index, the man at the top remains focused on the task at hand. Please see below: Source: Reuters Likewise, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Jun. 18: “This week, the FOMC took another significant step toward achieving our inflation objective by raising the Federal Funds rate target by 75 basis points. In my view, and I speak only for myself, if the data comes in as I expect I will support a similar-sized move at our July meeting.” Please see below: Source: Bloomberg Thus, while I’ve been warning for months that the Fed isn’t bluffing, investors are suffering the consequences of their short-sighted expectations. For context, I wrote on Dec. 23, 2021: Please note that when the Fed called inflation “transitory,” I wrote for months that officials were misreading the data. As a result, I don’t have a horse in this race. However, now, they likely have it right. Thus, if investors assume that the Fed won’t tighten, their bets will likely go bust in 2022.   Continuing the theme, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Jun. 17: "We're attacking inflation and we're going to do all that we can to get it back down to a more normal level, which for us has got to be 2%. We'll do whatever it takes to make that happen." As a result, the more investors bid up stock and commodity prices, the more "muscular" the Fed's policies become. Please see below: Source: Reuters Thus, while Fed officials continue to press down on the hawkish accelerator, the plight of many financial assets highlights the ferocity of central bankers’ war against inflation. Moreover, with all bouts of unanchored inflation ending in recessions over the last ~70 years, more fireworks should erupt in the months ahead. Short Squeeze 2.0 It’s important to remember that financial assets don’t move in a straight line. Therefore, while the fundamental outlook continues to deteriorate, the algorithms may spot bullish short-term trends that let the scalpers profit in the interim. For example, I noted on Jun. 15 that one-sided positioning could (and eventually did) spark a relief rally. I wrote: The liquidation frenzy (margin calls) that erupted recently coincided with hedge funds going on the largest two-day selling spree on record. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that Goldman Sachs’ prime brokerage data shows the z-score of combined net dollars sold on Jun. 10 and Jun. 13 exceeded the sell-off following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Thus, while it’s far from a sure thing, it’s prudent to note how these variables may impact the short-term price action. Source: Goldman Sachs To that point, last week's sell-off has too many market participants on one side of the boat. As a result, don't confuse a short squeeze with bullish price action. Please see below: Source: Goldman Sachs To explain, the blue bars above track the short-selling and short-covering activity of Goldman Sachs' hedge fund clients. If you analyze the red line at the bottom, you can see that the z-score of hedge funds' weekly short sales was the highest since April 2008. In a nutshell: hedge funds shorted more stocks as the S&P 500 declined, leaving them highly exposed to a short squeeze. As a result, if the markets rally, consider the price action within the context of the above data. Likewise, oversold conditions are also present. To explain, the green line above tracks the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that only 2% of S&P 500 constituents hold the key level, and the reading is abnormally low. For context, it’s a contrarian indicator, meaning that too much pessimism often elicits a short-term reversion. Moreover, with the dot-com bubble, the global financial crisis (GFC), the 2011 growth scare, the COVID-19 crash, and the 2018 sell-off the only periods with lower readings, it may take a shock-and-awe event to move the metric lower in the short term. Also noteworthy, Bloomberg’s SMART Money Flow Index diverged from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) late last week. For context, the indicator gauges the behavior of ‘smart’ investors that trade during the final hour of the day. Please see below: Source: Bloomberg/Zero Hedge To explain, the green line above tracks the DJIA, while the red line above tracks Bloomberg’s SMART Money Flow Index. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the smart money expects some selling reprieve. Finally, Bank of America’s Bull & Bear Indicator is at its lowest possible level. Again, this uses contrarian methodology, emphasizing how bearish over-positioning can spark sentiment shifts. Source: Bank of America The Bottom Line There have been several fits and starts along the GDXJ ETF’s path to lower prices, and the medium-term fundamentals remain profoundly bearish. However, rallies can increase investors’ anxiety if they’re unsure of why the optimism has manifested. As a result, while the contrarian bullish stock data may uplift the PMs in the short term, a potential sentiment reversion doesn’t impact their medium-term outlooks. Moreover, with the Fed hawked up and the developments bullish for the USD Index and U.S. real yields, the S&P 500 and the PMs should confront lower lows in the months ahead. In conclusion, the PMs declined on Jun. 17, as volatility has asset prices gyrating sharply by the day. However, the frantic buying/selling activity is bearish and highlights the fragility of the financial markets. Therefore, more bouts of panic should erupt in the coming months, even if the selling pressure subsides in the near term. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chief Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Updated on Jun 21, 2022, 3:00 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkJun 22nd, 2022

Showing that you"re stressed may make others like you more, psychologists say

Research suggests there are some unexpected advantages to stress, including making you seem more likable, as one recent study concluded. If your job is making you stressed, speaking up about it may be a good idea.Getty Images Psychologists looked at the signs of stress and how these behaviours are perceived by others.  People who showed higher levels of stress were deemed to be more likable by peers, the study found. Being more open could give the impression you're more cooperative, the researchers suggest.  Who doesn't want to be more likable? Popular people tend to be more trusted and have more friends.In a workplace context that could mean better relationships with colleagues, and help you climb the corporate ladder. There are ways to boost your potential popularity, but being open about the fact you're stressed is one you may not have thought of.It's well known that when we're stressed we tend to do things like bite our fingernails or touch our faces.As part of research published in the journal Evolution and Human Behavior, psychologists from Nottingham Trent and Portsmouth universities sought to investigate how these behaviours are perceived by others, and more importantly how they react.  For the study 31 participants were given a short time to prepare for a three-minute presentation and mock interview. They were then asked to complete a difficult math test. Their reactions were filmed throughout. The researchers asked them to complete a questionnaire and collected samples of saliva to monitor their levels of cortisol — the chemical our bodies produce in response to stress. Unsurprisingly, some of the participants became stressed as a result. For the second part of the study, a separate group of 133 participants were shown a random sample of the recordings and were asked to rate how stressed they perceived the original volunteers to be based on their behavior. They were also asked to rate on a scale of one to 100 how much they liked the people shown in the first study. The researchers found that people who reported feeling more stressed were generally perceived to be more stressed by their peers. Interestingly, those who displayed higher levels of stress, or were perceived to be doing so at least, were generally deemed to be more likable by those involved. The researchers are not clear why that may be. One evolutionary hypothesis they discuss is that when people are seemingly open about a "weakness", it could be perceived that they're more prepared to be cooperative. Whatever the underlying reasons, the study suggests there's a potential advantage to revealing when you're stressed. "We expect people to take advantage of weakness but showing your vulnerable side encourages support and social bonding," Jamie Whitehouse, research fellow at Nottingham Trent University's department of psychology, wrote in a summary of the findings for The Conversation. Stress can have some wider benefitsIt's not the first study to suggest that there can be some wider benefits to stress. Studies have found that an optimal level of stress can be a motivator at work, pushing people to perform in their role.Others suggest that by reframing the "fight or flight" response triggered by stressful situations as excitement rather than negativity can help a person overcome challenging situations. Of course that doesn't mean we should broadly accept stress, nor encourage it as a means of making ourselves more likeable. When stress is chronic, it can lead to burnout and have negative mental and physical consequences. The clear message from the study is that if a job interview, presentation, workload or just day-to-day life is making you stressed, speak up about it.As Whitehouse writes: "Communicating honestly and naturally through your behavior may in fact leave a positive impression on others."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJun 19th, 2022

Shark Tank"s Kevin O"Leary explains why he"s buying the dip in bitcoin and ether — and says the collapse of risky tokens will help the crypto market in the long run

In an exclusive interview with Insider, O'Leary explained how he's investing in crypto amid the downturn, and what he expects to happen next. Kevin O'Leary.Kevin O'Leary In an exclusive interview with Insider, Kevin O'Leary broke down how he's approaching the crypto bear market.  The "Shark Tank" investor said the market correction hasn't yet seen a defining moment.  He also explained how he's betting on the "best intellectual capital in the world." "Shark Tank" investor Kevin O'Leary — otherwise known as Mr. Wonderful — isn't sweating the cryptocurrency bear market. If anything, he thinks it will end up propping up the whole crypto sector in the long run. The venture capitalist explained that he's been doubling down on tokens, including bitcoin and ether, as well as various Web3 projects even though he acknowledges that not every investment will be a winning bet. "I'm not selling anything," O'Leary told Insider. "Long term you just have to stomach it. You have to understand you'll get volatility, and that some projects aren't going to work."His portfolio reflects his bullishness for blockchain technologies more broadly. He currently holds 32 positions in the digital asset space, including solana and blockchain firm Polygon. Meanwhile, the O'Leary-backed WonderFi just became the first crypto-trading platform to be featured on the Toronto Stock Exchange. But as the crypto bear market has slammed valuations, digital assets now make up 16% of his holdings, down from 20% six months ago, he said.Still, his long-term view is that blockchain has economic value. During an interview with Insider in April, he said investing in cryptocurrencies is like investing in software.The future of the crypto sectorO'Leary noted that recent crypto collapses, such as that of stablecoin Terra and sister token Luna, are events that teach investors caution, and can actually help further the technology underpinning digital assets. "Luna raised 30-plus billion [dollars]," he said. "No one's going to use their idea again. [The collapse] educated everybody that this isn't the way to build a stablecoin. It's important for the education and the maturation of the market."In the context of global financial markets, he added, the collapse of a token won't change the status quo, even when tens of billions of dollars disappear from the market and some investors lose money. But the lessons are sound. "It's nothing, a rounding error in the context of a sovereign wealth. It's bad for investors, but they've educated the market on what not to do. It's a good thing," he said.The smaller projects that fail will help strengthen the market, and the projects that flounder may eventually be regulated out of existence, O'Leary said. Such collapses can also help indicate when the crypto sell-off hits bottom, as a "defining capitulation" will signal the start of a rebound, he said. Ultimately, the veteran investor isn't just betting on crypto or the blockchain, but the human resources that he sees piling into the sector. "Look at an MIT graduating class of engineers," O'Leary said. "The smartest people want to work on the [block]chain. So you've got the majority of the best intellectual capital in the world solving poor outcomes on the chain — why wouldn't you expect that to work?"Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJun 18th, 2022

Audiomack exec on launching "Audiomack Punjabi," a new music vertical aimed at amplifying the regional genre

Himanshu "Heems" Suri spoke to Insider about his work on launching a Punjabi music vertical at Audiomack. Audiomack Himanshu "Heems" Suri spoke to Insider about his work on launching a Punjabi music vertical at Audiomack. An artist of Punjabi-Indian descent, Suri joined the music streaming platform in 2021 to lead its South Asian expansion. Earlier this month, the music streaming platform Audiomack launched "Audiomack Punjabi," a new vertical aimed at amplifying the regional language genre that originated in India and Pakistan.In a phone interview last week, Insider spoke to Himanshu "Heems" Suri, who's leading the vertical and overseeing the company's broader South Asian expansion.An artist of Punjabi-Indian descent, Suri gained notoriety as one-third of the hip-hop group Das Racist and has gone on to release music as a solo act and with the group Swet Shop Boys. Following a corporate stint at Spotify, Suri joined Audiomack in 2021 as its director of marketing and South Asian music strategy.In the interview, Suri framed the vertical's launch as a continued effort on his part to "shine a light on Indian culture as a whole" within the corporate structures of digital streaming platforms (DSPs), and discussed the potential for Punjabi music to mirror the international emergence of genres like Afrobeats and Dancehall.This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.You came onto Audiomack around this time last year. What made that the move for you personally and professionally at the time?Yeah. I mean, it made a lot of sense for a lot of reasons. I had moved into the space of working at DSPs, trying to shine a light on Indian culture as a whole, and something both professionally and personally that drives me is the idea that Punjabi music deserves a place alongside hip-hop, Afrobeats, Dancehall, Latin, and some of the more popular genres of the world right now. And Audiomack already having that belief in those other genres, already kind of connecting diaspora dots, whether between Africa and the UK, or now in this sense, with what we're doing, India and the US, UK, and Canada — so seeing that they were already doing that. And then thirdly, seeing that folks were already engaging with Audiomack to listen to solely Punjabi music, versus other Indian genres. Those three things, I think. Actually, a fourth being: seeing how artist-forward they are, and what they kind of do to nurture artists early on in their career, having been an artist myself. So as you could see, there were a lot of reasons why it made sense to work together.You said in a recent blog post you've seen "how global DSPs often focus on Bollywood while regional language genres fall to the wayside." Could you expand on that as an animating factor in this for you?Sure. I mean, I think there's two things. For one, I believe in the power of regional languages, and I think with DSPs, we've seen a rise in how much people engage with regional language music, if they're provided more access to it. I've been at a larger DSP and I've worked on go-to-market content strategy for launching in local Indian markets. And, you know, I've seen and been a fan of Bollywood myself, but the industry up until this point has been very much driven by Bollywood North Indian film music. And so I think looking at the things, one, the rise of Punjabi and regional languages as a whole, and then two, specifically that folks that use Audiomack were listening from Punjab, were listening from Chandigarh, were listening and uploading from Punjab, from Chandigarh, from Ludhiana, and also from Delhi, where there's a large Punjabi culture. So those two things combined.What has your experience as an independent artist and label founder shown you about the process of breaking acts in the US in particular?As an artist, being American, it's easy to forget the kind of privilege you have of being a part of the largest music market. But being in a band with British artists, in Swet Shop Boys with two British artists, I've seen how important it is for artists outside the US to break in the US, how much they wanna do it and how much it means to their success. And I've seen that in the Punjabi community as well. And I've seen it in, not just that, the access to Punjabi listeners in the US and the UK and Canada and Australia, but also, for Western listeners and other markets that we've seen artists like Burna Boy and Bad Bunny break into. So it's extremely important for them.Himanshu "Heems" Suri.AudiomackAnd I think one thing that Audiomack does well is kind of like ... how do you say ... uh, expedite the pipeline to global audiences, with Global Trending. You know, it's much easier to be a Punjabi artist that's placed on a playlist alongside hip-hop, Afrobeats, and Latin and Dancehall at Audiomack, then it would be to come up through the playlist of your local market and then tap those charts and break into Western-facing global charts at the larger DSPs. So, I'd say in having our main music discovery be that Global Trending playlist, that's very genre-, culture-, geographically agnostic, that I think makes a difference to artists where they finally feel like, okay, they're breaking out of being pigeonholed in their local market.What do you think the emergence and the prominence of Afrobeats could foretell of the potential emergence or greater emergence of Punjabi music? How do you see that in this role in particular?Yeah. You know, actually, my career started asking this question, with what we referred to, or what some of us called, the "Despacito" moment. And previous waves of music from other cultures, and what we've seen with reggae and Latin in the past. But you know, it started for me asking, what can we do to have those moments in Indian culture, to move beyond the Punjabi MC and Jay-Z moment. And so, from what we saw after "Despacito" with Latin, and at the same time, I was working to sow those seeds for Punjabi, it was happening alongside me for Afrobeats and for Arab music as well. So I've always kind of viewed these genres as related in some ways.And I think I want to always emulate the success of those other genres, whether it's Latin or Afrobeats. And, you know, what I think has happened at Audiomack is they've seen organic audiences and growth in Africa. They listen to their users, both the creators and the listeners, and then they were able to build upon that. And I think what I'm trying to do here is very similar in that we listened to our users, you know, we saw where they are in India, we saw what they're listening to, what they're uploading, and we're trying to build on that organic growth. Already, we've seen a very significant growth in Canada of the Punjabi music genre on Audiomack, upwards of 500% over a year span.How do you personally discover music? What tools or resources, outside of, let's say, DSPs, do you go to?That's a good question. For me, a lot of it is playlists, and a lot of it is, again, Audiomack offering the genres that I'm interested in on one central spot. So for me, it is often that Global Trending playlist, especially 'cause those are artists often at the earlier stages of their career. But outside of Global Trending and what I see at Audiomack, honestly, the radio and on TV, Punjabi TV channels. And then, yeah, social media. I mean, just pretty much the places other people find music. But I would say working at DSPs, a lot of my music discovery is just roaming through the backends of computer systems and finding different things from different countries.I've seen the playlists that have kind of initiated this, and there are more plans for discovery, but could you speak to just what this vertical will look like moving forward in your mind?Sure. You know, I think the playlists are obviously a great place to start, and what we're doing there is a blend of, playlists that incorporate traditional Indian instruments, playlists that are more hip-hop oriented, playlists that are more romantic or Senti, sentimental in nature, playlists representing women artists, and then playlists representing duets, which I'm really happy about. We've seen in Bollywood that the women singers' share of voice has decreased over time, and also duets, which used to be a cornerstone of Bollywood, have also decreased over time, in addition to Bollywood listening decreasing more recently as well. In Punjabi music, duets remain strong, and so we're happy to highlight that as well.And then from there, what we're really proud of, again, is about placing Punjabi songs alongside others on Global Trending. And Audiomack World is something that I think is really amazing about Audiomack, and going back to the days where I was discovering music on blogs, to have something in-app where I can read a thousand words on an artist and then press a button and be listening to their music, and to have that kind of context of the artist that background is important. So to have more coverage of Punjabi artists on Audiomack World, this past week, we honored Sidhu Moose Wala, who passed away, was murdered, with a tribute to his work, his impact on not just Punjabi music, but global music, with a piece on Audiomack World. And so we're hoping to do more of that.Beyond that, we've launched IG and Twitter channels. I think Audiomack does a great job of building community on their socials, and so we hope to do that as well on our social channels. And then, you know, the main thing, again, is being there for those artists, listening to them, seeing what they come up with with us. At Audiomack, some of the more recent kind of things we worked on that I'm proud to share with the Punjabi artist community specifically, is giving them access to Audiomack monetization program, uploading songs for free and being paid for it. Getting them access to Supporters, having them be able to reach out to their fans, have their fans buy tokens of support directly, and have the artist able to connect with the audience through private messaging, giving them access to things like concert tickets, meet-and-greets, and early access to music.Thirdly, the Creator App. Having a place where artists can easily access their data, see how they're doing, where they're doing well, what playlists they're on. And then in addition, fourthly, I'd say the Artist Guide, which we recently launched, where artists can go, and beyond the glossary of terms, having a bunch of industry experts provide them with knowledge on things from publishing and legal and press and just where to start your career. So, you know, Audiomack is invested in being there with an artist from the beginning of their journey. Punjabi music is a huge genre, but globally, I feel that we're still at the beginning of this journey. And so part of it is just integrating that audience into these existing resources. And then part of it is just using those resources to build on what we've done with hip-hop and with Afrobeats, and apply the same resources and passion to Punjabi music.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytJun 17th, 2022

Futures Rebound, Yen Crashes To End Turbulent Week On $3.4 Trillion Quad-Witch Day

Futures Rebound, Yen Crashes To End Turbulent Week On $3.4 Trillion Quad-Witch Day Ending a rollercoaster - but mostly lower - week for risk assets around the globe which saw the Fed hike the most since 1994, a shock Swiss National Bank hike and the latest boost in UK borrowing costs, as well as a bevy of central banks surprising hawkishly, stocks in Europe finally rebounded after hitting an 18 month low earlier this week, while US equity futures were bid Friday after a rout triggered by fears of recession pushed the S&P into a bear market on Monday. S&P futures rose 1% and Nasdaq futures rebounded 1.2% signaling steadier sentiment compared with Thursday’s plunge in US shares to the lowest since late 2020, after the BOJ refused to change its Yield Curve Control conditions, sending the Yen plunging, and helping the dollar snap two days of losses as Treasury yields were flat with the 10Y around 3.21%. The Stoxx Europe 600 index jumped about 1.2% after hitting its lowest level in more than a year. Friday also brings an absolutely massive triple-witching, and although Bloomberg believes that the roughly $3.2 trillion in options expiry may lead to short covering, which could bring temporary relief for the stock market... ... we disagree, as the bulk of open interest is around 4,100 or several hundred points above spot, meaning moves today will have little impact on "derivative tails wagging the dog." In any case, absent a massive 5% rally today which sends stocks into the green, the S&P is looking at being down 10 of the past 11 weeks, a feat that has been repeated just once in history: 1970. Let's go Brandon! In premarket trading, Revlon surged after a report that Reliance Industries Ltd. is considering buying the company. Major technology and internet stocks were higher, rebounding from Thursday’s rout. Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. were among those advancing. US-listed Chinese stocks also soared in the premarket, a day after the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index’s 4.4% slide, with e-commerce giant JD.com (JD US) leading the pack ahead of the closely watched 618 online shopping event. Additionally, Chinese tech giants such as Alibaba surges on a Reuters report that China’s central bank has accepted Ant Group’s application to set up a financial holding company. Alibaba shares surge 11% following the report. Among other large- cap Chinese internet stocks, JD.com +9.3%, Pinduoduo +7.5%, Baidu +5.6%. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Adobe (ADBE US) shares fall 4% in premarket trading on Friday after the software company cut its revenue forecast for the full year as it expects currency fluctuations, seasonal shifts in demand and the decision to end sales in Russia and Belarus to weigh on its business. Roku (ROKU US) shares climb 3.9% in premarket trading after the company and Walmart said they entered a pact to enable streamers to purchase featured products fulfilled by Walmart directly on Roku. US Steel (X US) shares rise 5.2% in US premarket trading after the metal giant’s 2Q22 guidance came in well above consensus estimates, according to Morgan Stanley analysts led by Carlos De Alba. Rhythm (RYTM US) shares are 13% lower in US premarket trading after the company’s Imcivree injection failed to win approval for one of the two supplemental indications it sought and the company announced a financing agreement with HealthCare Royalty Partners. Revlon (REV US) shares surge 65% in premarket trading after Reliance Industries is considering buying Revlon in the US, ET Now reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Markets are rounding off a turbulent week buffeted by interest-rate increases which are rapidly draining liquidity, sparking losses in a range of assets. Global stocks face one of their worst weeks since pandemic-induced turmoil of 2020. The question is how far assets have to sink before the tightening cycle is fully priced in. Bucking the global hawkish trend, Japan, retianed super-easy monetary policy and yield curve control, defying pressure to track the global trend toward tighter settings. As a result, the Japanese yen is on course for its biggest fall against the dollar since March 2020 while Japan’s 10-year bond yield retreated below the Bank of Japan’s cap of 0.25%, after earlier hitting 0.265%, the highest since 2016. The Swiss franc surged to its highest level against the yen since 1980. “Investors have to ask themselves how long the rate-hiking cycle will go and how deep the economic slowdown will be,” said Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse Group AG, which is overweight equities and recently closed its underweight position in bonds. “Peak hawkishness, i.e. the peak in expectations repricing, might be close. Once we are there, it is not only possible but likely that we will see a rebound in both equities and bonds. However, this rebound will be very difficult to time.” Despite the ongoing slow-motion crash, US stocks attracted another $14.8 billion in the week to June 15, their sixth consecutive week of additions, according to EPFR Global data. In total, $16.6 billion flowed into equities globally in the period, while bonds had the largest redemptions since April 2020 and just over $50 billion exited cash, the data showed. European equities climbed after a choppy start. Euro Stoxx 600 rallied 1.4%. FTSE MIB outperforms peers, adding 1.7%. European real estate companies are among the best performers, rebounding after several days of losses following concerns higher interest rates will weigh on the sector’s financing abilities. Sweden’s Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden (SBB) rises as much as 10%, Aroundtown +6.5%, Wallenstam +5.9%, Vonovia +4.9%. Here are some of the biggest European movers: Nokian Renkaat shares gain as much as 11% after the Finnish tire manufacturer raised its net sales guidance for 2022 while also keeping its profit guidance intact. Italy’s FTSE MIB index rises as much as 2%, leading gains among major European stock markets; Italy-Germany 10-year bond yield spread falls to one- month low. Best performers on the index include Campari +5.4%, Pirelli +5.3%, DiaSorin +5.1%, Recordati +4% Ferrari gains as much as 2.4% in the wake of upgrades from Intesa Sanpaolo and Banca Akros after the luxury carmaker unveiled its electrification strategy on Thursday. Glencore climbs as much as 3.9% in London after the commodities group said its first-half trading profit will be bigger than it typically reports for an entire year. Playtech rises as much as 6.4% after the gambling operator announced the deadline for TTB to make a firm offer has been extended to next month. Lisi advances as much as 9.6% after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the Boeing supplier to buy, saying its post-Covid recovery isn’t yet priced in. Volvo Cars falls as much as 5.4% to the lowest since April after DNB cut its recommendation on the shares to sell due to falling demand, also noting risks related to the Polestar SPAC listing. Rexel drops as much as 3.9% as Kepler Cheuvreux analyst William Mackie cuts his recommendation to hold from buy, citing the “rapidly rising probability of a recession.” Italian bonds led a rally in European debt after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde pledged that borrowing costs of more indebted nations in the euro-area won’t be allowed to spiral out of control. Italy’s 10-year yield fell 20 basis points and German equivalents dropped six basis points. Asian stocks tumbled to a two-year low as traders fear the global rush to hike interest rates may result in a steep economic downturn.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slumped as much as 1.5% Friday. The measure has fallen every session this week, and is on track to post its largest weekly drop since since the early days of the pandemic in March 2020. Asia stocks have fallen along with global peers as concerns over the potential for more jumbo rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which raised its benchmark by 75 basis points on Wednesday, triggered a broad market rout. As the global campaign to rein in decades-high inflation continues, investors worry policy tightening may become overdone and throw major economies into recessions.  Japanese shares led Friday’s slump in Asia, with the decision by the Bank of Japan to keep its ultra-loose monetary settings unchanged providing limited fillip as volatility in the yen grows. Stocks in China and Hong Kong bucked the regional selloff, as Beijing’s pro-growth policy lends support to views that Chinese equities can keep outperforming.    Read: Yen Tumbles as BOJ Stands Pat, Makes Rare Reference to FX Market “In the immediate short term (next 2-3 months), we continue to expect Asian stocks to remain volatile,” Chetan Seth, Asia Pacific equity strategist at Nomura Holdings in Singapore, wrote in a note.“However, we do expect some stabilization into late 3Q as equity valuations reset and positive catalysts emerge.” The catalysts Nomura is looking for are the Fed turning less hawkish as US inflation shows signs of softening and China loosening its Covid-Zero stance. Equity benchmarks in Australia and Vietnam were the other big losers in Asia on Friday, with each dropping more than 1.5%. Japanese stocks trimmed losses as the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain its easy-money policy.  The Topix fell 1.7% to 1,835.90 as of market close, while the Nikkei declined 1.8% to 25,963.00. Both gauges had been down more than 2.6% earlier in the day. The yen was down 1.3% to around 134 per dollar. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 3.6%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 423 rose and 1,689 fell, while 58 were unchanged. The Topix fell 5.5% this week, its worst since April 2020. BOJ Holds Firm to Deepen Outlier Status, Keep Pressure on Yen “If the yen further weakens, this will help the Nikkei 225 to remain firm to some extent,” said Makoto Furukawa, chief portfolio strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley. “The Japanese stock market is not so different from the global trend, and monetary policy that comes out from the US and Europe is much more important for Japanese equities.” Key stock gauges in India completed their worst weekly declines in more than two years as spiraling inflation and rate hikes by central banks dampened the outlook for business recovery.     The S&P BSE Sensex slipped 0.3% to 51,360.42 in Mumbai, bringing its weekly decline to 5.4%, the most since May 2020. The NSE Nifty 50 Index dropped 0.4% on Friday, taking its tumble to 5.6%. Tata Consultancy Services lost 1.7% and was the biggest drag on the Sensex, which had 22 of the 30 member stocks trade lower. Fifteen of 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a gauge of oil and gas companies.  Among central bank monetary-policy measures this week, the US Federal Reserve made its biggest increase in policy rates since 1994. India’s markets “are largely taking cues from the global markets, in absence of any major domestic event,” Ajit Mishra, vice-president research at Religare Broking Ltd. wrote in a note. Foreign institutional investors have withdrawn $25.7 billion from Indian stocks this year through June 15, and the sell-off is headed for its ninth consecutive month. “We reiterate our negative view on markets and suggest continuing with the ‘sell on rise’ approach,” according to the note. In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index rose by around 0.4% as the greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Swiss franc. Treasury yields rose by up to 9 bps, led by the front end. The yen was the worst G-10 performer and slumped as much as 1.8% to 134.63 per dollar after the Bank of Japan kept policy on hold, defying speculation it would follow its global peers and move toward tightening. The BOJ made a rare reference to the currency market, saying it needed to watch its impact on the economy and markets. The euro fell below $1.05 before paring, after touching an almost one-week high yesterday. European bond yields fell and investors rushed back to Italian debt for a third day after ECB President Christine Lagarde pledged that borrowing costs of more indebted nations in the euro-area won’t be allowed to spiral out of control. Sterling eased against a broadly stronger dollar, giving up some of its sharp gains made the previous day, when the Bank of England’s pledge to take a more aggressive stance against inflation boosted the UK currency. Market awaits speeches by BOE policymakers Silvana Tenreyro and Huw Pill later in the day for possible clues into the outlook for inflation and monetary policy. In rates, Treasuries are cheaper across the curve with losses led by front-end following flurry of block trade in 2-year note futures over the European session. US yields cheaper by up to 5bp across front-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s spread by 2.5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.22%, cheaper by 2.5bp and underperforming bunds by 7bp Italian bonds outperform after ECB President Christine Lagarde’s pledge to support borrowing costs of indebted nations in the euro-area.  Bloomberg notes five block trades in 2-year note futures for combined 25k were posted between 3:25am ET and 4:36am ET appeared skewed toward sellers, helping front-end of the cash curve underperform. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; at least six IG issuers are said to have stood down over the past couple of days, as investors wait for market calm before re-launching deals. The German cash curve bull steepens, trading richer by ~12bps in 5s. Gilts bull flatten, with 10y yields down 8bps around this week’s lows near 2.4%. US 2s10s narrow 3bps. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund narrowing ~14bps to a one-month low near 188bps. In commodities, crude futures advance. WTI drifts 1% higher to trade near $118.75. Base metals are mixed; LME tin falls 0.9% while LME nickel gains 1.1%. Spot gold falls roughly $7 to trade near $1,850/oz Bitcoin is currently modestly firmer, but the overall sessions range is in proximity to USD 20k with the current trough at USD 20.19k. Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include US industrial production and capacity utilisation for May, along with the final Euro Area CPI reading for May. Central bankers include Fed Chair Powell, the ECB’s Simkus and the BoE’s Tenreyro and Pill. Of note, Jerome Powell gives welcome remarks before the Inaugural Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar at 845am ET. He is not expected to discuss monetary policy. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.0% to 3,703.75 MXAP down 1.2% to 157.22 MXAPJ down 0.4% to 521.87 Nikkei down 1.8% to 25,963.00 Topix down 1.7% to 1,835.90 Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 21,075.00 Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,316.79 Sensex little changed at 51,457.72 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 6,474.80 Kospi down 0.4% to 2,440.93 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 407.54 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.66% Euro down 0.4% to $1.0502 Brent Futures up 0.5% to $120.35/bbl Brent Futures up 0.5% to $120.39/bbl Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,849.84 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.75% to 104.41 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg A small tweak to the BOJ’s bond purchase plan this week blew up an arbitrage strategy popular with overseas investors known as the basis trade. It exacerbated a supply shortage of government bonds that has ramped up pressure on domestic financial institutions, leading them to turn to the BOJ for help to relieve the strain President Joe Biden said a US recession isn’t inevitable and acknowledged that aides warned him about the inflationary risk of his flagship relief bill, while insisting that he won’t soften his stance on Russia even if it costs him re-election The WTO clinched a historic package of accords including on vaccine production and fishery subsidies, ending the trade body’s seven-year negotiating drought China’s local governments are caught in an unexpectedly severe budget squeeze, creating a dilemma for officials over whether to boost debt or tolerate weaker economic growth A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks mostly suffered firm losses amid the global risk-aversion after the recent flurry of central bank rate increases and with weak data in the US stoking recession fears. ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in tech and the commodity-related sectors, although gold miners have weathered the storm after the recent upside in the precious metal. Nikkei 225 was pressured and failed to benefit from the BoJ decision to keep policy settings unchanged. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. pared opening losses amid virus-related optimism after Beijing reported zero cases outside of quarantine and with US-China defence meetings showing signs of cooling tensions. Top Asian News China in Talks With Qatar for Gas Field Stakes, Reuters Says Kuroda Deepens BOJ’s Outlier Status, Keeping Pressure on Yen ByteDance Disbands Shanghai Games Studio in Expansion Setback BOJ Offers to Buy Cheapest-to-Deliver JGBs for Extended Time Gold Heads for Weekly Drop as Traders Weigh Rate Hikes, Growth European bourses are now firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.2%, as performance picks up following a mixed open amid comparably quiet newsflow. Stateside, US futures are performing similarly, ES +1.0%, though the complex is cognisant of commentary from Chair Powell later. Note, today is Quad Witching; recently, GS’ Rubner highlighted “literally massive” USD 3.2tln notional open interest of US listed options which expire on June 17th, writing that the passing of this may allow the market to move more freely. Top European News UK is to set out new data rules which diverge from the EU on Friday as it seeks to ease pressure on businesses, while it believes the new rules will maintain free flow of data from Europe and does not expect the EU to object to its data reforms, according to Reuters. German Finance Minister Lindner told ECB President Lagarde that the ECB's talk regarding fragmentation threatens to dent confidence, according to FT. Hungarian Chief of Staff Gulyas says the idea of a global minimum tax is not accepted by the Hungarian government. Central Banks BoJ kept policy settings unchanged as expected with rates at -0.10% and QQE with yield curve control maintained to target 10yr JGB yields at around 0% with the decision on YCC made via an 8-1 vote as Kataoka dissented. BoJ repeated its April guidance that it will offer to buy 10yr JGBs at 0.25% every business day unless it is highly likely that no bids will be submitted and it also reiterated guidance on policy bias that it will take additional easing steps without hesitation as needed with an eye on the pandemic's impact on the economy. Furthermore, the BoJ said the economy is picking up as a trend though some weakness has been seen and they must carefully watch the impact of FX moves on Japan's economy and prices. BoJ's Kuroda says upward pressure is being seen in bond yields, and it is important for FX to move stable reflecting fundamentals, no change to the concept that YCC strongly supports the economic recovery; does not see a limit in YCC. Recent rapid JPY weakness is a weakness for the economy.. Does not see a need for further policy easing now. Not thinking about raising the cap on the BoJ's long-term yield target above 0.25%, as it could result in higher yields and weaken the effect of monetary easing. BoJ purchases JPY 70.1bln in ETFs. BoJ offers to purchase the cheapest-to-deliver issuance for an extended time as of June 20th. ECB's Knot says that several 50bps rate increases are possible in the event that inflation worsens, via BNR; does not see hikes reaching 200bp before early-2023. BoE's Pill says markets will have to make their own judgement on whether the BoE is considering a 50bp hike, via Bloomberg TV; stresses the conditionality around the inclusion of "forcefully" in the statement, in the context of "if necessary". Trying to signal that we may need to act further, looking at the persistence of inflationary pressure. Price pressures becoming embedded would be a trigger for more aggressive BoE action. FX Yen recoils after racking up big risk averse gains as BoJ sticks rigidly to ultra accommodative stance with additional measures to maintain YCC, USD/JPY hovers just under 135.00 vs 131.49 low on Thursday. Buck benefits after extending post-FOMC retreat in wake of weak US data and pronounced bounce in Treasuries, DXY extends recovery to 104.540 from 103.410 low. Franc maintains SNB hike momentum to rally further across the board, USD/CHF around 0.9650 compared to par-plus peaks earlier in the week. Euro underpinned by decent option expiry interest and hawkish ECB commentary, but Aussie undermined as Government gives authorities power to stop coal exports; EUR/USD on the 1.0500 handle and above 1+ bln rolling off between 1.0500-1.0495, AUD/USD capped just under 0.7000. Kiwi gleans some traction from a rise in NZ manufacturing PMI and RBNZ rate hike calls; NZD/USD straddles 0.6350, AUD/NZD cross sub-1.1050. Lira lags following latest CBRT survey showing higher inflation forecasts and USD/TRY rate, latter at 18.8874 by year end vs 17.5682 previously and circa 17.3200 at present. Fixed Income Debt extends intraday ranges as volatility remains high on Friday. Bunds veer from 142.56 to 144.99, Gilts between 111.83 and 112.91 and the 10 year T-note within a 116-19/115.28+ range. Hawkish comments from ECB's Knot largely discounted as EZ periphery bonds outperform on anti-fragmentation dynamic, but BoE's Pill rattles Sonia strip. Commodities WTI and Brent are currently set to end the week with gains in excess of USD 1.00/bbl overall, though the benchmarks reside towards the mid-point of the over USD 11.00/bbl range for the week. Newsflow has been comparably limited but primarily focused on familiar themes. US Energy Secretary called an emergency meeting with oil refiners next week to discuss steps companies can take to increase refining capacity and output, according to Reuters citing a DoE spokesperson. White House is reportedly considering fuel export limits as pump prices surge and options such as waiving anti-smog rules are also being discussed, according to Bloomberg. Qatar Energy set August Al-Shaheen crude term price at a premium of USD 9.24/bbl above Dubai quotes which is the highest in 3 months, according to traders cited by Reuters. Brazil's Petrobras is to announce a fuel price increase today, according to Reuters citing local press. China's national oil majors are reportedly in advanced discussions with Qatar around investment in North Field East LNG and for long-term contractual purchases of LNG, according to Reuters sources. Australia has invoked measures to give authorities the power to prevent coal exports if needed in an attempt to avert the risk of blackouts, according to the FT. Spot gold is rangebound in European hours having successfully surpassed the cluster of DMAs between USD 1843-1848/oz during Thursday’s blockbuster session.   US Event Calendar 09:15: May Capacity Utilization, est. 79.2%, prior 79.0% 09:15: May Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.3%, prior 0.8% 09:15: May Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 1.1% 10:00: May Leading Index, est. -0.4%, prior -0.3% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to buck the global trend of monetary tightening, as this morning the central bank decided to maintain its purchases of government bonds and equities. The decision was widely anticipated but the BOJ indicated that it must “pay due attention” to foreign exchange markets, following the yen’s rapid weakening to its lowest level in 24 years earlier this week. The Yen has weakened around -1.3% to 134/USD as we type. Meanwhile, Japan’s benchmark 10yr bond yields hit a six-year high of 0.268% at one point, moving beyond the BOJ’s 0.25% cap ahead of the policy decision. However, yields retreated to the 0.25% after its daily unlimited fixed-rate purchasing operations. This just continues what has been a very expensive week for the BoJ in terms of JGB QE after having had to buy $9.6tn yen worth. As one of our Asian FX strategists Tim Baker highlighted this morning, that's US$72bn. Tim highlighted that this is almost what the Fed and ECB were doing in an entire month last year, for economies 5-3x larger than Japan's. Japan's QE this week has been running more than 20x the pace of the Fed's QE in 2021, adjusted for the size of the economy. Can they continue to hold this line? You wouldn't think they could but it depends on global yields and central banks, the Yen and Japanese inflation. See my CoTD (link here) on this earlier this week. Watch out for the BoJ press conference after this goes to print this morning for any hints as to how determined they are to continue their policy settings. The BoJ caps an array of central bank meetings over recent days, and markets have experienced another rout over the last 24 hours as multiple headlines added to investors fears about an imminent recession. It marked a big shift from just a day earlier, when the initial focus after Chair Powell’s press conference had been on his comment (when referring to +75bps) that he didn’t “expect moves of this size to be common”. But futures swiftly turned negative as growing doubts were cast on how firm that commitment really was, not least since we’ve all seen just how swiftly the Fed have shifted posture over the last week in response to worse-than-expected data. On top of that, the latest decisions by the SNB and the BoE (more on which below) only added to the hawkish drumbeat that much higher rates are in the offing, whilst weak US housing data served to aggravate those fears about an imminent growth slowdown. With all said and done, you were hard-pressed to find a major asset that didn’t lose ground yesterday. The major equity indices slumped heavily on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 (-3.24%) losing more than -3% for the second time this week, as it also hit its lowest level since late 2020. Indeed, just 14 companies in the entire index moved higher on the day. Elsewhere, the NASDAQ saw an even larger decline, falling -4.08% to have now lost more than a third of its value since its all-time closing peak back in November. It’s lost -9.96% since Friday’s CPI and -6.12% this week. And it was a similar story in Europe too, as the STOXX 600 (-2.47%) fell to a one-year low of its own. Whilst equities were selling off, sovereign bonds continued to trade with elevated volatility, a function of continued central bank surprises, murky forward guidance, and heightened uncertainty around the near-to-medium-term outlook as economic data gets worse. In short it was a wild, wild ride yesterday. The sell-off initially accelerated after the SNB became the latest central bank to surprise. They hiked rates for the first time in 15 years, executing a 50bps move, combined with a change in FX policy, that our strategist Robin Winkler argues marks a once-in-a-decade policy regime shift (link here). In turn, that led to a massive reaction in the Swiss Franc, which strengthened by +2.91% against the US Dollar on the day in its biggest daily appreciation since 2015. Then we had the Bank of England, where they hiked rates by +25bps as widely expected, with 3 of the 9 committee members continuing to vote for a larger 50bp increment. Notably, their statement sent a stronger signal on inflation, saying that the Committee would be “particularly alert to indications of more persistent inflationary pressures, and will if necessary act forcefully in response.” In turn, that saw investors reappraise the path of future rate hikes in a more hawkish direction, and are now expecting more than +150bps worth of hikes over the next 3 meetings, so equivalent to at least a 50bp move at each one. Our UK economist writes in his reaction note (link here) that he expects the BoE to hike by 50bps in August and September now, which for reference would be the largest single hikes since they gained operational independence in 1997. Against that backdrop, sovereign bond yields whipped around yet again. European yields were much higher on tighter policy and then Treasury yields moved higher in sympathy during European trading but gradually fell after another batch of underwhelming housing data lent new fears that growth was on unstable footing. Yields on 10yr Treasuries fell -8.9bps to 3.20%, but at their intraday peak they’d been up +20.7bps, so some sizeable moves in both directions. The move in nominal yields traced real yields, which were as high as +21.7bps intraday at the 10yr point, before finishing the day just +1.1bps higher. 10yr breakevens fell -10.4bps on the prospect of slower growth, which drove nominal yields lower on the day. In Asia, this morning, 10yr yields are witnessing a reversal with yields up +4.33bps to 3.24% while 2yr yields (+6bps) also moved higher to 3.15% as I type. Our US rates strategists have updated their views in the face of some large forces in both directions with the 10yr now expected to hit 3.85%. They also updated their year-end 2yr call to 3.85%, so a flat curve. See the full update here. Meanwhile in Europe, 10yr bunds gained +7.2bps (+28.3bps at the peak) in a very choppy session. However, there was a considerable tightening in peripheral spreads for a second day running, with the gap between Italian and German 10yr yields down -13.7bps to 202bps, which followed comments from Italian central bank governor Visco that the spread should be under 150bps based on economic fundamentals. The heightened uncertainty and wild swings in yields also translated to heightened currency volatility, where the Euro traded in its widest intraday range since March 2020, which was as low as -0.60% and as strong as +1.50% against the dollar before ultimately appreciating +1.01%. As mentioned, sentiment was further dampened by weak US housing data yesterday, with both housing starts and building permits in May falling by even more than expected. Housing starts were down to an annualised rate of 1.549m (vs. 1.693m expected), their lowest level in over a year, whilst building permits were down to an annualised rate of 1.695m (vs. 1.778m expected). We also got a sign of how tighter monetary policy was affecting the market, with Freddie Mac’s data showing that a 30-year fixed mortgage rate for the week ending yesterday rose to 5.78% (vs. 5.23% in the previous week). That’s the highest level since November 2008, as well as the largest weekly increase in the rate since 1987. And it just shows how the much more rapid pace of Fed hikes now expected by investors over the last week is already filtering its way through to the real economy. Those moves lower in the US and European equities have been echoed in Asian markets this morning. The Nikkei (-1.59%) is the largest underperformer with the Kospi (-1.08%) also trading sharply lower. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.78%) is recovering from earlier losses while mainland Chinese stocks also turning around with the Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) and CSI (+0.26%) both trading up. Outside of Asia, stock futures in the DMs are bouncing with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.52%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.67%) and DAX (+0.31%) all heading higher. Looking forward, Russian President Putin will be giving a speech today at the St Petersburg Economic Forum, which his press secretary Peskov has tried to build anticipation for, and could offer a flavour of how combative the Kremlin plans to be in its international approach. That came as German Chancellor Scholz, French President Macron and Italian PM Draghi endorsed Ukraine’s EU candidacy in a visit to the country yesterday. Otherwise, European natural gas futures pared back their significant increases in the morning to close -1.94% lower, marking a change in direction after their massive increases over the previous 2 sessions. To the day ahead now, and data releases include US industrial production and capacity utilisation for May, along with the final Euro Area CPI reading for May. Central bankers include Fed Chair Powell, the ECB’s Simkus and the BoE’s Tenreyro and Pill. Tyler Durden Fri, 06/17/2022 - 08:12.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 17th, 2022

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Is Up 2.58% in One Week: What You Should Know

Does Marathon Petroleum (MPC) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even though momentum is a popular stock characteristic, it can be tough to define. Debate surrounding which are the best and worst metrics to focus on is lengthy, but the Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at Marathon Petroleum (MPC), which currently has a Momentum Style Score of A. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Marathon Petroleum currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?Let's discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for MPC that show why this refiner shows promise as a solid momentum pick.Looking at a stock's short-term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum, since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment. It is also useful to compare a security to its industry, as this can help investors pinpoint the top companies in a particular area.For MPC, shares are up 2.58% over the past week while the Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry is up 0.15% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 2.8% compares favorably with the industry's 2.83% performance as well.Considering longer term price metrics, like performance over the last three months or year, can be advantageous as well. Over the past quarter, shares of Marathon Petroleum have risen 22.92%, and are up 56.29% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved -10.7% and -9.3%, respectively.Investors should also pay attention to MPC's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. MPC is currently averaging 6,608,121 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score also takes into account trends in estimate revisions, in addition to price changes. Please note that estimate revision trends remain at the core of Zacks Rank as well. A nice path here can help show promise, and we have recently been seeing that with MPC.Over the past two months, 5 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost MPC's consensus estimate, increasing from $5.49 to $13.72 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 6 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.Bottom LineGiven these factors, it shouldn't be surprising that MPC is a #1 (Strong Buy) stock and boasts a Momentum Score of A. If you're looking for a fresh pick that's set to soar in the near-term, make sure to keep Marathon Petroleum on your short list. Special Report: The Top 5 IPOs for Your Portfolio Today, you have a chance to get in on the ground floor of one of the best investment opportunities of the year. As the world continues to benefit from an ever-evolving internet, a handful of innovative tech companies are on the brink of reaping immense rewards - and you can put yourself in a position to cash in. One is set to disrupt the online communication industry. Brilliantly designed for creating online communities, this stock is poised to explode when made public. With the strength of our economy and record amounts of cash flooding into IPOs, you don’t want to miss this opportunity.>>See Zacks’ Hottest IPOs NowWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJun 16th, 2022

What Makes Continental Resources (CLR) a Strong Momentum Stock: Buy Now?

Does Continental Resources (CLR) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at Continental Resources (CLR), which currently has a Momentum Style Score of A. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Continental Resources currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?In order to see if CLR is a promising momentum pick, let's examine some Momentum Style elements to see if this independent oil and gas company holds up.A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short-term price activity, as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand. It is also useful to compare a security to its industry, as this can help investors pinpoint the top companies in a particular area.For CLR, shares are up 2.01% over the past week while the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is flat over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 21.58% compares favorably with the industry's 3.98% performance as well.Considering longer term price metrics, like performance over the last three months or year, can be advantageous as well. Over the past quarter, shares of Continental Resources have risen 12.47%, and are up 95.82% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved -10.7% and -9.3%, respectively.Investors should also pay attention to CLR's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. CLR is currently averaging 2,070,588 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with CLR.Over the past two months, 7 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost CLR's consensus estimate, increasing from $9.76 to $12.19 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 8 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.Bottom LineTaking into account all of these elements, it should come as no surprise that CLR is a #1 (Strong Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of A. If you've been searching for a fresh pick that's set to rise in the near-term, make sure to keep Continental Resources on your short list. Special Report: The Top 5 IPOs for Your Portfolio Today, you have a chance to get in on the ground floor of one of the best investment opportunities of the year. As the world continues to benefit from an ever-evolving internet, a handful of innovative tech companies are on the brink of reaping immense rewards - and you can put yourself in a position to cash in. One is set to disrupt the online communication industry. Brilliantly designed for creating online communities, this stock is poised to explode when made public. With the strength of our economy and record amounts of cash flooding into IPOs, you don’t want to miss this opportunity.>>See Zacks’ Hottest IPOs NowWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Continental Resources, Inc. (CLR): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksJun 16th, 2022

DeSantis is a "very dangerous individual" because he has "already absorbed all the lessons of Trump" but doesn"t have any of the baggage, an expert on fascism argues

"He's readying himself for a national run, if it's in 2024 or later. And he's a very dangerous individual," historian Ruth Ben Ghiat said of DeSantis. Newly sworn-in Gov. Ron DeSantis arrives with his wife Casey DeSantis, for an event at the Freedom Tower where he named Barbara Lagoa to the Florida Supreme Court on January 09, 2019 in Miami, Florida. Mr. DeSantis was sworn in yesterday as the 46th governor of the state of Florida.Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is best placed to take Trump's place as a 2024 GOP presidential nominee. An expert on authoritarianism told Insider that's because he's learned all of Trump's lessons. The expert added that DeSantis 'doesn't have the baggage of Trump,' and could rally voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis could be the GOP's natural successor to former President Donald Trump as a 2024 presidential candidate, and he doesn't come with Trump's drama, an expert on authoritarianism told Insider.Ruth Ben-Ghiat is a historian at New York University, and the author of the book, "Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present." She has studied the backsliding of democracy, from the US to Russia, and elsewhere.In a wide-ranging interview, she told Insider that in light of the January 6 hearings, Trump might have to be prosecuted in order to save American democracy ahead of the 2024 election. In that context, she said that DeSantis could take his place as a populist nominee."What we do find in history is prosecution, in the longer term, is one of the only things that deflates these guys' personality cults, because those cults are founded on the idea that they are invincible, they are infallible," Ben-Ghiat said. "Now, if that does happen to Trump — DeSantis has already absorbed all the lessons of Trump."Ben-Ghiat has written several essays making her argument."He's clearly readying himself for a national run, whether it's in 2024 or later. And he's a very dangerous individual," Ben Ghiat said. "He's dangerous because he is equally repressive, but doesn't have the baggage of Trump. It's hard to have the baggage of Trump."DeSantis has recently signed controversial bills like Florida's "Don't Say Gay" bill — which limits teachers' curriculum around sexual orientation and gender identity in grades Kindergarten through third — and the Stop WOKE Act, which restricts how race is discussed in workplaces, schools, and colleges. He also implemented an Office of Election Crimes and Security, rankling voting rights advocates.DeSantis, who has raised $124 million, has recently denied that he'll run in 2024, insisting that he's focused on his own race in 2022. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytJun 15th, 2022

Here"s Why Valero Energy (VLO) is a Great Momentum Stock to Buy

Does Valero Energy (VLO) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even though momentum is a popular stock characteristic, it can be tough to define. Debate surrounding which are the best and worst metrics to focus on is lengthy, but the Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at Valero Energy (VLO), which currently has a Momentum Style Score of A. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Valero Energy currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?In order to see if VLO is a promising momentum pick, let's examine some Momentum Style elements to see if this oil refiner holds up.Looking at a stock's short-term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum, since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment. It's also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.For VLO, shares are up 3.76% over the past week while the Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry is up 0.15% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 4.44% compares favorably with the industry's 1.25% performance as well.While any stock can see its price increase, it takes a real winner to consistently beat the market. That is why looking at longer term price metrics -- such as performance over the past three months or year -- can be useful as well. Over the past quarter, shares of Valero Energy have risen 42.91%, and are up 62.51% in the last year. On the other hand, the S&P 500 has only moved -10.01% and -10.73%, respectively.Investors should also take note of VLO's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. Right now, VLO is averaging 4,811,881 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score also takes into account trends in estimate revisions, in addition to price changes. Please note that estimate revision trends remain at the core of Zacks Rank as well. A nice path here can help show promise, and we have recently been seeing that with VLO.Over the past two months, 6 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost VLO's consensus estimate, increasing from $8.90 to $16.68 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 6 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.Bottom LineGiven these factors, it shouldn't be surprising that VLO is a #1 (Strong Buy) stock and boasts a Momentum Score of A. If you're looking for a fresh pick that's set to soar in the near-term, make sure to keep Valero Energy on your short list. Zacks' Top Picks to Cash in on Electric Vehicles Big money has already been made in the Electric Vehicle (EV) industry. But, the EV revolution has not hit full throttle yet. There is a lot of money to be made as the next push for future technologies ramps up. Zacks’ Special Report reveals 5 picks investorsSee 5 EV Stocks With Extreme Upside Potential >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Valero Energy Corporation (VLO): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJun 15th, 2022

Here"s Why SilverBow Resources (SBOW) is a Great Momentum Stock to Buy

Does SilverBow Resources (SBOW) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even though momentum is a popular stock characteristic, it can be tough to define. Debate surrounding which are the best and worst metrics to focus on is lengthy, but the Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at SilverBow Resources (SBOW), which currently has a Momentum Style Score of B. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. SilverBow Resources currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?Let's discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for SBOW that show why this energy company shows promise as a solid momentum pick.Looking at a stock's short-term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum, since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment. It is also useful to compare a security to its industry, as this can help investors pinpoint the top companies in a particular area.For SBOW, shares are up 10.4% over the past week while the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is flat over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 20.38% compares favorably with the industry's 0.69% performance as well.While any stock can see its price increase, it takes a real winner to consistently beat the market. That is why looking at longer term price metrics -- such as performance over the past three months or year -- can be useful as well. Shares of SilverBow Resources have increased 35.36% over the past quarter, and have gained 66.38% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved -10.01% and -10.73%, respectively.Investors should also take note of SBOW's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. Right now, SBOW is averaging 332,672 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with SBOW.Over the past two months, 1 earnings estimate moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost SBOW's consensus estimate, increasing from $7.60 to $12.69 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 1 estimate has moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.Bottom LineGiven these factors, it shouldn't be surprising that SBOW is a #1 (Strong Buy) stock and boasts a Momentum Score of B. If you're looking for a fresh pick that's set to soar in the near-term, make sure to keep SilverBow Resources on your short list. Zacks' Top Picks to Cash in on Electric Vehicles Big money has already been made in the Electric Vehicle (EV) industry. But, the EV revolution has not hit full throttle yet. There is a lot of money to be made as the next push for future technologies ramps up. Zacks’ Special Report reveals 5 picks investorsSee 5 EV Stocks With Extreme Upside Potential >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report SilverBow Resources (SBOW): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksJun 15th, 2022

Antero Resources (AR) is a Great Momentum Stock: Should You Buy?

Does Antero Resources (AR) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at Antero Resources (AR), which currently has a Momentum Style Score of A. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Antero Resources currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?In order to see if AR is a promising momentum pick, let's examine some Momentum Style elements to see if this oil and natural gas producer holds up.Looking at a stock's short-term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum, since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment. It is also useful to compare a security to its industry, as this can help investors pinpoint the top companies in a particular area.For AR, shares are up 0.27% over the past week while the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is flat over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 4.88% compares favorably with the industry's 0.69% performance as well.Considering longer term price metrics, like performance over the last three months or year, can be advantageous as well. Shares of Antero Resources have increased 40.16% over the past quarter, and have gained 174.85% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved -10.01% and -10.73%, respectively.Investors should also take note of AR's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. Right now, AR is averaging 8,062,027 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with AR.Over the past two months, 4 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost AR's consensus estimate, increasing from $4.51 to $6.47 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 4 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.Bottom LineGiven these factors, it shouldn't be surprising that AR is a #1 (Strong Buy) stock and boasts a Momentum Score of A. If you're looking for a fresh pick that's set to soar in the near-term, make sure to keep Antero Resources on your short list. Zacks' Top Picks to Cash in on Electric Vehicles Big money has already been made in the Electric Vehicle (EV) industry. But, the EV revolution has not hit full throttle yet. There is a lot of money to be made as the next push for future technologies ramps up. Zacks’ Special Report reveals 5 picks investorsSee 5 EV Stocks With Extreme Upside Potential >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Antero Resources Corporation (AR): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksJun 15th, 2022

Here"s Why Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) is a Great Momentum Stock to Buy

Does Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY), which currently has a Momentum Style Score of B. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?Let's discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for MGY that show why this company shows promise as a solid momentum pick.Looking at a stock's short-term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum, since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment. It's also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.For MGY, shares are up 2.86% over the past week while the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is flat over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 13.85% compares favorably with the industry's 7% performance as well.Considering longer term price metrics, like performance over the last three months or year, can be advantageous as well. Over the past quarter, shares of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp have risen 13.05%, and are up 79.25% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved -10.45% and -10.28%, respectively.Investors should also pay attention to MGY's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. MGY is currently averaging 1,889,495 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score also takes into account trends in estimate revisions, in addition to price changes. Please note that estimate revision trends remain at the core of Zacks Rank as well. A nice path here can help show promise, and we have recently been seeing that with MGY.Over the past two months, 4 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost MGY's consensus estimate, increasing from $3.88 to $4.46 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 3 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.Bottom LineGiven these factors, it shouldn't be surprising that MGY is a #1 (Strong Buy) stock and boasts a Momentum Score of B. If you're looking for a fresh pick that's set to soar in the near-term, make sure to keep Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp on your short list. How to Profit from the Hot Electric Vehicle Industry Global electric car sales in 2021 more than doubled their 2020 numbers. And today, the electric vehicle (EV) technology and very nature of the business is changing quickly. The next push for future technologies is happening now and investors who get in early could see exceptional profits. See Zacks' Top Stocks to Profit from the EV Revolution >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJun 14th, 2022

CNX Resources Corporation. (CNX) is a Great Momentum Stock: Should You Buy?

Does CNX Resources Corporation. (CNX) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even though momentum is a popular stock characteristic, it can be tough to define. Debate surrounding which are the best and worst metrics to focus on is lengthy, but the Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at CNX Resources Corporation. (CNX), a company that currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A. We also talk about price change and earnings estimate revisions, two of the main aspects of the Momentum Style Score.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. CNX Resources Corporation. Currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?Let's discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for CNX that show why this company shows promise as a solid momentum pick.A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short-term price activity, as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand. It's also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.For CNX, shares are up 2.6% over the past week while the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is flat over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 13.27% compares favorably with the industry's 7% performance as well.While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. Over the past quarter, shares of CNX Resources Corporation. Have risen 12.62%, and are up 47.98% in the last year. On the other hand, the S&P 500 has only moved -10.45% and -10.28%, respectively.Investors should also take note of CNX's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. Right now, CNX is averaging 3,366,243 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with CNX.Over the past two months, 5 earnings estimates moved higher compared to 1 lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost CNX's consensus estimate, increasing from $2.10 to $3.00 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 5 estimates have moved upwards while there have been 1 downward revision in the same time period.Bottom LineTaking into account all of these elements, it should come as no surprise that CNX is a #1 (Strong Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of A. If you've been searching for a fresh pick that's set to rise in the near-term, make sure to keep CNX Resources Corporation. On your short list. How to Profit from the Hot Electric Vehicle Industry Global electric car sales in 2021 more than doubled their 2020 numbers. And today, the electric vehicle (EV) technology and very nature of the business is changing quickly. The next push for future technologies is happening now and investors who get in early could see exceptional profits. See Zacks' Top Stocks to Profit from the EV Revolution >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report CNX Resources Corporation. (CNX): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksJun 14th, 2022

Enerplus (ERF) is a Great Momentum Stock: Should You Buy?

Does Enerplus (ERF) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even though momentum is a popular stock characteristic, it can be tough to define. Debate surrounding which are the best and worst metrics to focus on is lengthy, but the Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at Enerplus (ERF), a company that currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A. We also talk about price change and earnings estimate revisions, two of the main aspects of the Momentum Style Score.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Enerplus currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?In order to see if ERF is a promising momentum pick, let's examine some Momentum Style elements to see if this oil and natural gas company holds up.A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short-term price activity, as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand. It's also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.For ERF, shares are up 9.79% over the past week while the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - Canadian industry is flat over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 30.23% compares favorably with the industry's 12.8% performance as well.While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. Shares of Enerplus have increased 28.82% over the past quarter, and have gained 139.43% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved -10.45% and -10.28%, respectively.Investors should also take note of ERF's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. Right now, ERF is averaging 2,605,039 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with ERF.Over the past two months, 2 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost ERF's consensus estimate, increasing from $2.58 to $3.51 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 2 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.Bottom LineTaking into account all of these elements, it should come as no surprise that ERF is a #1 (Strong Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of A. If you've been searching for a fresh pick that's set to rise in the near-term, make sure to keep Enerplus on your short list. How to Profit from the Hot Electric Vehicle Industry Global electric car sales in 2021 more than doubled their 2020 numbers. And today, the electric vehicle (EV) technology and very nature of the business is changing quickly. The next push for future technologies is happening now and investors who get in early could see exceptional profits. See Zacks' Top Stocks to Profit from the EV Revolution >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Enerplus Corporation (ERF): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksJun 14th, 2022

Suncor Energy (SU) Is Up 1.08% in One Week: What You Should Know

Does Suncor Energy (SU) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even though momentum is a popular stock characteristic, it can be tough to define. Debate surrounding which are the best and worst metrics to focus on is lengthy, but the Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at Suncor Energy (SU), which currently has a Momentum Style Score of B. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Suncor Energy currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?In order to see if SU is a promising momentum pick, let's examine some Momentum Style elements to see if this energy company holds up.Looking at a stock's short-term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum, since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment. It's also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.For SU, shares are up 1.08% over the past week while the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - Canadian industry is down 1% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 5.49% compares favorably with the industry's 6.23% performance as well.While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. Over the past quarter, shares of Suncor Energy have risen 21.9%, and are up 56.78% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved -10.45% and -10.28%, respectively.Investors should also pay attention to SU's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. SU is currently averaging 7,040,485 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score also takes into account trends in estimate revisions, in addition to price changes. Please note that estimate revision trends remain at the core of Zacks Rank as well. A nice path here can help show promise, and we have recently been seeing that with SU.Over the past two months, 3 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost SU's consensus estimate, increasing from $3.94 to $5.28 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 2 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.Bottom LineTaking into account all of these elements, it should come as no surprise that SU is a #1 (Strong Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of B. If you've been searching for a fresh pick that's set to rise in the near-term, make sure to keep Suncor Energy on your short list. How to Profit from the Hot Electric Vehicle Industry Global electric car sales in 2021 more than doubled their 2020 numbers. And today, the electric vehicle (EV) technology and very nature of the business is changing quickly. The next push for future technologies is happening now and investors who get in early could see exceptional profits. See Zacks' Top Stocks to Profit from the EV Revolution >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Suncor Energy Inc. (SU): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksJun 14th, 2022