Advertisements




Brace For Price Shock: Americans" Heating Bills To Soar Up To 50% This Winter

Brace For Price Shock: Americans' Heating Bills To Soar Up To 50% This Winter So far, Americans have been watching the money-depleting energy crisis that hit Europe and Asia with detached bemusement: after all, while US energy prices are higher, they are nowhere near the hyperinflation observed in Europe. That is about to change because as the Energy Information Administration warned this week, much higher heating bills are coming this winter. According to the IEA's October winter fuels outlook (pdf), nearly half of U.S. households that warm their homes with mainly natural gas can expect to spend an average of 30% more on their "multi-year high" bills compared with last year. The agency added that bills would be 50% higher if the winter is 10% colder than average and 22% higher if the winter is 10% warmer than average. The forecast rise in costs, according to the report, will result in an average natural-gas home-heating bill of $746 from Oct. 1 to March 31, compared with about $573 during the same period last year. The IEA projects that U.S. households will spend more on energy this winter than they have in several years due to soaring energy prices—natural-gas futures have this year reached a seven-year high—and the likelihood of a more frigid winter than what most of the country saw last year. As the Epoch Times adds, propane costs are forecasted to rise by 54%, heating oil costs to rise by 43%, natural gas costs to rise by 30%, and electricity costs to rise by 6 percent. And with natural gas consumption projected to rise by 3% this winter, households are expected to spend $746 this winter, up from $573 last winter. The increase in natural gas heating costs varies by region with the Midwest U.S. leading the price hike at a 45% increase from last winter, and the Northeast expecting a hike of 14%. Nearly half of all U.S. households use natural gas as the primary source of heating. Households relying on heating oil over winter will spend $1,734 over winter, relative to $1,212 last winter. Houses in Northeastern regions will be more affected by the price hike as nearly one in five homes in the region rely on heating oil as their primary source of space heating. The projection is based on the Brent crude oil price, which helps determine the prices of U.S. petroleum products. “The higher forecast Brent crude oil price this winter primarily reflects a decline in global oil inventories compared with last winter as a result of global oil demand that has risen amid restrained production levels from OPEC+ countries,” according to the EIA. While most households commonly use electricity for heating, 41% rely on electric heat pumps or heaters as their primary source for space heating. These homes should expect to spend $1,268 this winter season, relative to $1196 last year. This projection accounts for 3 percent more residential electricity demand with more Americans working from home, a colder winter, as well as a rise in fuel costs for power generation. “During the first seven months of this year, the cost of natural gas delivered to U.S. electric generators averaged $4.97/MMBtu, which is more than double the average cost in 2020,” stated EIA. The 5 % of U.S. homes using propane as the primary means to heat can expect to spend $631 more on average compared to last winter, depending on the location. Residents of the Midwest can spend an average of $1,805 this winter, reflecting higher propane prices and a 2 percent increased consumption. Propane prices have been at their highest since February 2014 due to increased global demand, relatively flat U.S. propane production, and limited oil supplies from OPEC+ countries. The looming increase, on top of rising prices for many consumer goods and commodities, is likely to cause stress for Americans at many income levels. Should prices rise too far, a repeat of the mass protests observed across European capitals denouncing soaring energy costs, is likely.  Economists warn that the larger utility bills are most likely to affect those households still hobbled by the Covid-19 pandemic. “We are very concerned about the affordability of heat this winter for all customers, but in particular those who struggle every day to afford their utility services,” says Karen Lusson, a staff attorney for the National Consumer Law Center, a nonprofit that advocates on consumer issues for low-income communities. Sounds like another laser-guided stimmy courtesy of the Biden admin is coming. Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 18:20.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytOct 14th, 2021

10 Ways The Chinese Government Lied, Misled, & Messed-Up Early On In The Pandemic

10 Ways The Chinese Government Lied, Misled, & Messed-Up Early On In The Pandemic Authored by Ross Pomeroy via RealClearScience.com, A plethora of politicians and government officials across the globe screwed up in their handling of the COVID-19 Pandemic. The Chinese government, however, was acutely damaging with its ineptitude, because it, more than any other entity, had a chance to limit the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus when it first emerged in late 2019. Instead of trying to contain the virus with the help of the international community, however, the Chinese government lied, misled, and stalled. All of humanity has experienced the disastrous result of this negligence. In his new book, Uncontrolled Spread, physician, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb focused his considerable expertise on pointing out the ways in which the world's response to COVID-19 fell short, and how we can better prepare for the next inevitable pandemic. Early on in the book, he chronicled numerous examples of the Chinese government's inept, corrupt handling of what was then an emerging outbreak. Here are ten of them: 1. Silencing Genetic Sequencing.  In late December 2019, doctors around Wuhan started noticing people coming in with a strange pneumonia, and began sending patient samples to genomics companies for sequencing. The reports they received back were disturbing – it was a never-before-seen, SARS-like coronavirus. By January 1, provincial health officials instructed these companies to stop testing samples from the Wuhan outbreak and to destroy their remaining specimens. Two days later, China's top health authority ordered genomics labs not to publish any data related to the novel coronavirus. 2. Censoring Doctors.  Early on in the pandemic, Wuhan's local doctors quickly realized that a novel virus was spreading, and took to social media platforms like WeChat and Weibo to share information with each other. They were soon censored by the Chinese government, and posts related to what was then dubbed "Wuhan SARS' were suppressed. Many doctors were detained, interrogated, and threatened with prosecution. "Chinese scientists and physicians took risks, and their efforts saved lives," Gottlieb wrote. 3. Deploying Social Media Bots.  According to ProPublica, more than ten thousand Chinese government-linked accounts on Twitter were used to cast doubt on early reports related to the outbreak in Wuhan. 4. Censoring Social Media.  Citizen Lab documented thousands of keywords related to COVID that were suppressed by the Chinese government on platforms YY and WeChat. Many deleted posts criticized the government for their handling of the outbreak. 5. Not Reporting the Outbreak to the WHO as Required.  As a signatory to major public health treaties, the Chinese government was required to notify the world community of any unusual, novel pathogen within its borders that could spread internationally, typically within 72 hours of detection. The novel coronavirus clearly met this description, yet Chinese officials withheld information about the virus for weeks. 6. Refusing to Share the Coronavirus' Genetic Sequence.  When the genetic sequence of the coronavirus was first shared widely in early January, it was a heroic, rogue Chinese researcher, not the government, who did so. Dr. Zhang Yongzhen was directed not to release the information, but frustrated with what he perceived as irresponsibility by government officials, he defied their order. Within hours, Zhang's lab was shut down by the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission for "rectification". 7. Not Sharing Virus Samples.  Very early on, global researchers were clamoring for Chinese officials to share samples of the novel coronavirus so they could evaluate it and begin developing diagnostic tests, vaccines, and therapeutics. Government officials never did. "Access to those samples at the outset could have helped the world prepare," Gottlieb wrote. "And without the source strains, it would be impossible to determine with any certainty the virus's origin." 8. Attempting to Avoid Travel Restrictions.  In early February, as it started to become clear that China was losing control of the outbreak, the government was still privately clashing with the WHO to block the declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Government officials wanted to avoid burdensome travel restrictions which the PHEIC would likely lead to. 9. Misleading the World Health Organization.  In the early days of the pandemic, the WHO publicly stated that it was in constant contact with Chinese government officials. This was true, but the dialogue was essentially useless. "The WHO would submit long lists of questions to Chinese officials, related to the scope and severity of the epidemic. In return, the Chinese government would provide achingly incomplete replies," Gottlieb wrote. Little of value was relayed. 10. Refusing to Allow CDC Scientists Into Wuhan.  Roughly a dozen CDC staff are permanently stationed in Beijing. On January 1, 2020, CDC Director Robert Redfield emailed Dr. George Fu Gao, the director of China's CDC, requesting that these U.S. researchers be granted access to the outbreak hot zone to assist in identification of the novel pathogen. Gao refused, and would do so again when Redfield pressed the matter. At the time, Chinese officials were still saying publicly there was no evidence of person-to-person spread. Redfield believes that U.S. scientists would have quickly discovered that the coronavirus was spreading human-to-human, and doing so asymptomatically. As Gottlieb wrote in Uncontrolled Spread, "The spark of transmission was lit amid the suppression and distortion of key facts... Had the Chinese government been more forthright at the outset, there was a chance that the virus could have been contained." Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 16:23.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytOct 14th, 2021

Soho gets a taste of what could be with new Vision Plan

Soho residents are getting a chance to see how their neighborhood could look if a new “Vision Plan” aimed at turning some of its congested streets into pedestrian plazas and reclaiming Broome Street from Holland Tunnel traffic gets the green light. Every Saturday throughout October, the local BID, the SoHo... The post Soho gets a taste of what could be with new Vision Plan appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. Soho residents are getting a chance to see how their neighborhood could look if a new “Vision Plan” aimed at turning some of its congested streets into pedestrian plazas and reclaiming Broome Street from Holland Tunnel traffic gets the green light. Every Saturday throughout October, the local BID, the SoHo Broadway Initiative (SBI), is holding a temporary public demonstration along Prince Street showcasing the new ideas for improving the area through a Public Realm Framework + Vision Plan. Nicknamed “Little Prince Plaza,” the street will be closed to vehicular traffic between Broadway and Mercer Street, opening up space for people to stroll and sit at park benches and tables. The aim is to see how people use the space, learn what works well and what can be improved, and collect feedback for the Public Realm Framework + Vision Plan. “We are excited to partner with residents, business owners, and other local stakeholders to advocate for a more pedestrian-friendly SoHo,” said Mark Dicus, executive director of the SoHo Broadway Initiative. “In addition to increasing space for people, reducing traffic, and improving business operations, these changes will help strengthen SoHo’s position as one of New York’s most iconic and inclusive neighborhoods that welcomes local residents as well as people from around the city and the world.” Ariel view of how Broadway could look if the Vision Plan moves forward The demo comes as a controversial rezoning of a 56-block stretch of SoHo and NoHo stalls amid local concerns about overbuilding and commercialization. Rejected by the local Community Board, the rezoning seeks to add thousands of new apartments to the neighborhood while righting decades of special permit approvals that allowed a patchwork of retail and residential uses while sidelining any type of infrastructure or service delivery upgrades. Last month, Manhattan Borough President Gale Brewer asked city planners to tweak their current rezoning proposal before she’ll give it any support. But she has given her wholehearted support to the Vision Plan, which has been on the BID docket since well-before the rezoning. Calling it a “bold and impressive plan for how to better manage our shared public space in SoHo,” Brewer said, “The Four Key Moves that this draft plan proposes for Broadway, Prince Street, Mercer and Crosby Streets, and Broome Street that prioritize pedestrians, bus riders, cyclists, and importantly deliveries are exactly the kind of forward-thinking designs that the SoHo Broadway neighborhood has always needed, but are especially important as we begin our recovery from the pandemic.” Those Four Key Moves are: Create more space for people on Broadway: Broadway will be transformed into a curbless bus and pedestrian priority street from Houston Street to Canal Street, seamlessly linking the east and west sides of the street. By diverting all non-local vehicular traffic from Broadway to the perimeter of the SoHo ‘superblock’ (defined by Houston Street, the Bowery, Varick Street, and Canal Street) and improving and streamlining bus, emergency, freight, service, and for-hire vehicle operations, sidewalks can be expanded to improve pedestrian flow and create more comfortable spaces that include amenities such as greenery, seating, and public art. Share Crosby Street and Mercer Street: Mercer Street and Crosby Street will become beautifully restored, pedestrian-friendly curbless streets that effectively incorporate and streamline the District’s curbside operational activity. These low-traffic streets remain quiet, providing a green and comfortable respite from the bustle of Broadway. Mercer Street also provides a much-needed southbound bikeway connection through SoHo. Pedestrianize Prince Street and Howard Street: Prince and Howard Streets adjacent to Broadway will become public plazas featuring seating, greenery, a cafe kiosk, and  neighborhood-appropriate programming. These plazas will increase the District’s supply of usable public space and enhance pedestrian comfort and safety, while improving access and relieving congestion around subway entrances. Reclaim Broome as a local street: Broome Street will no longer operate as a tunnel on-ramp, and instead offer expanded, usable public space, greenery, and cycling facilities that serve the needs of SoHo residents, workers, and visitors. This will be achieved through diverting all tunnel-bound traffic to the perimeter of the SoHo ‘superblock;’ reducing vehicular travel lanes from two to one, adding a dedicated westbound bikeway linking Chrystie Street and Hudson Street; and allocating remaining space for public realm amenities. Rendering of pedestrianized Prince Street Adelaide Polsinelli, a vice chairman at the real estate brokerage Compass who specializes in the sale of commercial retail property around the city, said the Vision Plan offers a constructive solution to a longtime problem in the neighborhood. “In many ways, Soho has become a victim of its own success as a retail hot spot,” said Polsinelli. “Its eclectic mix of stores, boutiques, bars and restaurants have drawn ever more visitors while the number of businesses operating there has mushroomed. All of this has happened during a distinct lack of improvements to the streetscape and the type of small-scale improvements offered in the Vision Plan would go a long way to improving quality of life for everyone.” Local resident Anders Host agrees. “I think this vision is a giant leap forward in terms of quality of life for those of us who live in and visit SoHo,” said Holst. “SoHo is such a great neighborhood, with cool restaurants, bars, and stores and charming cobblestones and cast-iron architecture, but there are some important issues that we need to fix. “The Broome Street Symphony, which is performed every afternoon with cars honking, bumper to bumper, is not only dangerous but also detrimental to our health. I am glad we are taking a bold stance on these issues to create a greener and more human environment for future generations.” The popular Museum of Ice Cream at 558 Broadway is another supporter. Cofounder Manish Vora said she believes the future of NYC is a return to a carless, pedestrian- and bike-friendly city. Commercial property owner Greg Kraut said the plan would allow people to “move more efficiently enabling an improved operational and aesthetic experience.” Mercer Street be southbound bikeway connection through SoHo. With no official mandate to actually implement the Vision Plan, the SoHo Broadway Initiative said that, for now, they’ll be looking for community feedback from the October demonstrations and conducting traffic and parking studies. They are also looking to engage with local elected officials, City agencies and community stakeholders to figure out how much support there is for the plan overall and where the money to implement it would come from. The post Soho gets a taste of what could be with new Vision Plan appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklyOct 14th, 2021

U.S. Unemployment Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since Onset of Pandemic

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest level since the pandemic began, a sign the job market is still improving even as hiring has slowed in the past two months. Unemployment claims dropped 36,000 to 293,000 last week, the second straight drop, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s the smallest… The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest level since the pandemic began, a sign the job market is still improving even as hiring has slowed in the past two months. Unemployment claims dropped 36,000 to 293,000 last week, the second straight drop, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s the smallest number of people to apply for benefits since the week of March 14, 2020, when the pandemic intensified, and the first time claims have dipped below 300,000. Applications for jobless aid, which generally track the pace of layoffs, have fallen steadily since last spring as many businesses, struggling to fill jobs, have held onto their workers. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] The decline in layoffs comes amid an otherwise unusual job market. Hiring has slowed in the past two months, even as companies and other employers have posted a near-record number of open jobs. Businesses are struggling to find workers as about three million people who lost jobs and stopped looking for work since the pandemic have yet to resume their job searches. Economists hoped more people would find work in September as schools reopened, easing child care constraints, and enhanced unemployment aid ended nationwide. Read More: The ‘Great Resignation’ Is Finally Getting Companies to Take Burnout Seriously. Is It Enough? But the pickup didn’t happen, with employers adding just 194,000 jobs last month. In a bright spot, the unemployment rate fell to 4.8% from 5.2%, though some of that decline occurred because many of those out of work stopped searching for jobs, and were no longer counted as unemployed. The proportion of women working or looking for work fell in September, likely because of difficulties finding child care or because of schools disrupted by COVID-19 outbreaks. At the same time, Americans are quitting their jobs in record numbers, with about 3% of workers doing so in August. Workers have been particularly likely to leave their jobs at restaurants, bars, and hotels, possibly spurred by fear of the delta variant of COVID-19, which was still spreading rapidly in August. Other workers likely quit to take advantage of higher wages offered by businesses with open positions. Average hourly pay rose at a healthy 4.6% in September from a year earlier, and for restaurant workers wage gains in the past year have topped 10%. The number of people continuing to receive unemployment aid has also fallen sharply, mostly as two emergency jobless aid programs have ended. In the week ending Sept. 25, the latest data available, 3.6 million people received some sort of jobless aid, down sharply from 4.2 million in the previous week. A year ago, nearly 25 million people were receiving benefits. The emergency programs provided unemployment payments for the first time to the self-employed and gig workers, and those who were out of work for more than six months. More than 7 million Americans lost weekly financial support when those two programs expired Sept. 6. An extra $300 in federal jobless aid also expired that week. Many business executives and Republican politicians said the extra $300 was discouraging those out of work from taking jobs. Yet in about half the states, the additional checks were cutoff as early as mid-June, and those states have not seen faster job growth than states that kept the benefits......»»

Category: topSource: timeOct 14th, 2021

Millennials are creating housing communes with friends because it"s too expensive to buy a home as a single person

Homes today are expensive. So is being single. It's left some millennials combining their savings with friends to buy a house together. Housing has become so expensive that millennials are buying homes with friends. Marko Geber/Getty Images Millennials are buying houses with their friends to become homeowners, the WSJ reports. The housing crisis has pushed home prices to record highs, boxing some millennials out of the market. Also - it's just really expensive to be single. First-time homebuying millennials are finding a loophole in today's housing crisis: buying a home with their friends.Some members of the generation are turning to co-buying as a way to overcome economic and cultural hurdles that stand in the way of homeownership, The Wall Street Journal's Alex Janin reported. It's a pre-pandemic trend, she wrote, largely accelerated by the desire for remote work and an expensive real estate market.The number of buyers purchasing as an unmarried couple during April to June 2020 increased to 11% from 9% during the same time frame in 2019, per data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR)."During the pandemic, people have been renting and they may have wanted more space, and so they looked at, perhaps, their roommate and decided, 'Let's go buy a home together,'" Jessica Lautz, vice president of demographics and behavioral insights for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), told Janin. Pre-pandemic, it was already a tough world for aspiring millennial homebuyers, who struggled to save for a down payment as they dealt with the financial fallout of the Great Recession, staggering student-loan debt, and soaring living costs. As they aged into their peak homebuying years in 2020, they led a housing boom that soon morphed into a historic inventory crisis that was already forming over the past dozen years as contractors underbuilt homes.Home prices shot up, reaching a record high of $386,888 in June. The biggest victim of this housing shortfall was the starter home, which was already nearing its demise even before the pandemic. While the housing market has since begun to cool and contractors have begun to build more homes, these homes are in the higher end of the market, NAR's director of housing and commercial research, Gay Cororaton, told Insider.These affordability issues have boxed many millennials out of the housing market, forcing them to get resourceful in finding ways to fast-track their path to homeownership. For some, that's moving out to the exurbs or buying fixer-uppers. For others, it's inventing their own commune.The single life is an expensive oneMillennials' lifestyle choices are also shaping their co-buying decisions. The generation has established a new normal, in which getting married and having kids comes later in life, after going to college and becoming financially settled. It's contributing to a decline in marriage rates and birth rates.Millennials "have a lot more options and they don't have to settle down quite as early as people in previous generations were expected to do," Clare Mehta, an associate professor of psychology at Emmanuel College, previously told Insider.Homeownership is the one milestone that remains important to the generation. To nearly three-fourths of millennials surveyed in a Bank of America Research study, it's more significant than getting married and having children. It partly explains why more millennial couples are buying houses together before tying the knot. But buying a house when you don't have a partner isn't quite as feasible. As Insider's Juliana Kaplan recently reported on recent Pew data, nearly 40% of young adults who aren't in couples make less money than their peers.It's especially troublesome for women, who typically make less than men regardless of relationship status thanks to the wage gap. Recent research from Freddie Mac found that the majority of single women head of household renters (60%) think they won't ever be able to afford the home. Most said they don't have enough savings for a down payment or think a mortgage would be too expensive.Teaming up with a friend or roommate cuts the individual price of a home in half, enabling millennials to buy a home with less money saved. While there are complicated factors involved, such as deciding how to share equity and what to do in the case of a fallout, millennials are ultimately seeing the move as a win-win situation: they get a stake in an appreciating real estate market and get to fulfill their desire for communal living.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 14th, 2021

Pandemic Wiped Out Entire Savings Of 20% Of US Households

Pandemic Wiped Out Entire Savings Of 20% Of US Households Over the weekend, we showed a staggering wealth distribution statistic cementing the US status as a banana republic: according to Fed data which breaks down the distribution of wealth according to income quintile (or 20% bucket) the middle 60% of US households by income saw their combined assets drop from 26.7% to 26.6% of national wealth as of June, the lowest in Federal Reserve data, while for the first time the super rich had a bigger share, at 27%. While especially true for the top 1%, it is all the rich that have benefited from the Fed's generous liquidity pump at the expense of the extinction of the US middle class - as the next chart shows, over the past 30 years, 10 percentage points of American wealth has shifted to the top 20% of earners, who now hold 70% of the total. The bottom 80% are left with less than 30%. But while we have extensively discussed the destructive impact of the Fed on the middle class - while enriching the top 1% - a view espoused recently by Stan Druckenmiller who in May called the Fed the single "greatest engine of wealth inequality" in history (to which we would also add the end of the gold standard under Nixon), some have asked what about the sub-middle class? After all one can argue (correctly) that the swing voter in the US is not in the top 1%, but rather in the bottom 50%. Well, as we previously pointed out, the bottom 50% own just 2% of all net worth, or a paltry $2.8 trillion. What is even more sad is that the wealth of the bottom 50% is virtually unchanged since 2006, while the net worth of the Top 1% has risen by 132% from $17.9 trillion to $41.5 trillion. But to get a sense of just how precarious the everyday existence of the lower classes is, consider the following stunning fact: Bloomberg reports that according to a poll of 3,616 adults aged 18 and older from NPR, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health released on Tuesday, for many Americans the Covid lockdowns - with nowhere to go and nothing to do - was a time to save. But for almost 20% of U.S. households, the pandemic wiped out their entire financial cushion. The share of respondents who said they lost all their savings jumped to 30% for those making less than $50,000 a year, the poll found. Black and Latino households were also harder hit. Avenel Joseph, a vice president at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, said many people dipped into their savings to cover child or health care expenses. “When crisis hits, or anything goes out of the norm—your child is sick, for example—you are sacrificing wages,” she said. Almost two thirds of households earning less than $50,000 a year said they had trouble affording rent, medical care, and food. While about two-thirds of people surveyed said they received financial assistance from the government in the past few months, 44% said those programs only “helped a little.” “We always knew there was going to be an uneven recovery,” Joseph said. “The safety net always had holes, and the pandemic ripped those holes even wider.” Lawmakers in Congress are currently debating how much to spend on shoring up the safety net going forward. While the staggering social divide is truly sad, and largely a byproduct of the Fed's catastrophic policies in the past decade, it does bring up an important point: while much has been said about the $2 trillion or so in excess savings created during the covid pandemic (assuming most if not all of that has not already been spent to fund the resurgent household spending in the US)... ... the reality is that the distribution of savings was also extremely skewed to benefit the wealthiest. And according to Morgan Stanley, the top 20% of US income groups benefited from two-thirds of all savings. The rest, or the "bottom 80%", retained just a third of this (debatable) $2 trillion in excess savings. Here is Morgan Stanley: The Fed's Distributional Financial Accounts provide insight on who is holding this tremendous stock in savings: Looking at cash holdings (checkable deposits and currency) from 1Q20-1Q21 across the income distribution shows that 65% of excess cash (cash accumulated above the 4Q19 level) is held among the top 20%, while 35% is spread across the bottom 80% (top 80% holds ~$1.4tn in excess savings and bottom 80% holds ~$800bn, Exhibit 4). And, judging by the poll referenced above, the lower 80% have already spent most if not all of their savings! What are the implications? Well, higher income households that hold a tremendous amount of excess savings make up a majority of consumer spending – the top 40% income group represents over 60% of expenditures (Exhibit 5). However, spending by higher income households is not very sensitive to income changes. This is why it is important that the lower-middle income group hold excess savings and have a steady income stream. The transition from government transfer income (unemployment insurance benefits, rebate checks, child tax credits) to labor market income is critical and is expected to support continued spending even as the fiscal impulse fades. The Opportunity Insights credit and debit card spending tracker by income tercile shows that consumer spending among the lowest tercile has consistently been higher relative to pre-Covid than middle and higher income groups. This holds even through mid- August where we have moved past the immediate bump from rebate checks, when the $600 federal supplemental UI benefits expired last summer, and during the second and third waves of Covid (Exhibit 6). To summarize: the rich not only got richer, but managed to save up over a trillion. Meanwhile, the "lower 80%" retained just a third of the $2 trillion in excess savings with many if not all cohorts within this segment have already spent all of their savings. As such, any optimistic GDP forecast which assumes that GDP will continue to grow in 2022 as a result of continued spending of "excess savings" by the bulk of the population, such as that done over the past weekend by Goldman (see gray bar in the chart below)... ... is terribly incorrect, for one simple reason: that many is gone, all gone. And while the rich still are holding a major portion of their "excess savings", they are far more likely to keep holding to it, or simply invest it in risk assets, which will bring absolutely no benefits to the US economy. It will however, ramp stocks even higher. Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 13:29.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytOct 14th, 2021

The Moment Whan "Everything Solid Melts Into Air" Is Near

The Moment Whan 'Everything Solid Melts Into Air' Is Near Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, That the neofeudal lords and their lackeys offer the debt-serfs "choices" of forced labor would be comic if the results weren't so tragic. We know we're close to the moment when Everything Solid Melts into Air when extraordinary breakdowns are treated as ordinary and the "news" quickly reverts to gossip. So over 4 million American workers up and quit every month, month after month after month, and the reaction is ho-hum, labor shortage, blah, blah, blah, toy shortage for Christmas, oh, the horror, blah, blah, blah. These are large numbers. Over 10 million job openings and 6 million hires and 6 million "separations," i.e. layoffs and the 4.3 million voluntary quits. The happy story promoted by the corporate media is that this enormous churn is the result of shiny, happy people moving up the work food chain to better paying jobs. We know we're close to the moment when Everything Solid Melts into Air when every breakdown is instantly reworked into a happy story in which everything is getting better every day, in every way. The reality nobody in power wants to acknowledge, much less address, is that millions of workers are opting out or burning out and they're not coming back. Another happy story promoted by the corporate media is that once all the gummit freebies ended, the lazy no-good workforce would be forced to take whatever wretched job the billionaires need done at low pay and zero benefits. (But hey, you qualify for food stamps, so it's all good!) A substantial share of the workforce has declared "up yours" and another share has been so burned out by overwork and constant pressure that they're done: they can no longer work at this pace and for that many hours. This enrages the lackeys, toadies, apparatchiks and apologists of the billionaires: how dare you escape from forced labor! The whole economy is based on the bleak choice of take the job we offer or starve. The "innovation" (pay attention, neofeudal lords) from SillyCon Valley is to offer an illusion of "choice" in this forced labor system: in the gig economy, you get to "choose" between Gulag Camp One (low pay, long hours, zero benefits and zero security) and Gulag Camp Two (low pay, long hours, zero benefits and zero security). Wow! Who knew "choice" was so life-changing? In a similar fashion, when you can no longer afford rent, utilities, etc., then you get a "choice" of living in your car, if you have one, or fashioning a crate-tent "home" or taking over the ruined camper left by the guy who made the one-way trip to the morgue. That the neofeudal lords and their lackeys offer the debt-serfs "choices" of forced labor would be comic if the results weren't so tragic. The neofeudal status quo is so busy chasing down escapees from the forced-work Gulags that it won't notice its Wile E. Coyote moment when Everything Solid Melts into Air. *  *  * If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com. My recent books: A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF). Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF). Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($5 (Kindle), $10 (print), ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF). The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF) Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF). Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 11:15.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 14th, 2021

Futures Surge As Banks Report Stellar Earnings; PPI On Deck

Futures Surge As Banks Report Stellar Earnings; PPI On Deck US equity futures, already sharply higher overnight, jumped this morning as a risk-on mood inspired by stellar bank earnings, overshadowed concern that supply snarls. a China property crunch, a tapering Fed and stagflation will weigh on the global recovery. Nasdaq futures jumped 1%, just ahead of the S&P 500 which was up 0.9%. 10-year Treasury yields ticked lower to about 1.5%, and with the dollar lower as well, oil jumped. Bitcoin and the broader crypto space continued to rise. Shares in Morgan Stanley, Citi and Bank of America jumped as their deal-making units rode a record wave of M&A. On the other end, Boeing shares fell more than 1% after a Dow Jones report said the plane maker is dealing with a new defect on its 787 Dreamliner. Here are some of the biggest other U.S. movers today: Occidental (OXY US) rises 1.6% in U.S. premarket trading after it agreed to sell its interests in two Ghana offshore fields for $750m to Kosmos Energy and Ghana National Petroleum Plug Power (PLUG US) rises 3.3% premarket, extending gains from Wednesday, when it announced partnership with Airbus SE and Phillips 66 to find ways to harness hydrogen to power airplanes, vehicles and industry Esports Entertainment (GMBL US) shares rise 16% in U.S. premarket trading after the online gambling company reported its FY21 results and reaffirmed its FY22 guidance Perrigo  (PRGO US) gains 2.8% in premarket trading after Raymond James upgrades to outperform following acquisition of HRA Pharma and recent settlement of Irish tax dispute AT&T (T US) ticks higher in premarket trading after KeyBanc writes upgrades to sector weight from underweight, saying it seems harder to justify further downside from here Avis Budget (CAR US) may be active after getting its only negative rating among analysts as Morgan Stanley cuts to underweight with risk/reward seen pointing toward downside OrthoPediatrics (KIDS US) dipped 2% Wednesday postmarket after it said 3Q revenue was hurt by the surge in cases of Covid-19 delta variant and RSV within children’s hospitals combined with staff shortage Investors continue to evaluate the resilience of economic reopening to supply chain disruptions, a jump in energy prices and the prospect of reduced central bank support. In the earnings season so far, executives at S&P 500 companies mentioned the phrase “supply chain” about 3,000 times on investor calls as of Tuesday -- far higher than last year’s then-record figure. “Our constructive outlook for growth means that our asset allocation remains broadly pro-risk and we continue to be modestly overweight global equities,” according to Michael Grady, head of investment strategy and chief economist at Aviva Investors. “However, we have scaled back that position marginally because of growing pains which could impact sales and margins.” Europe's Stoxx 600 index reached its highest level in almost three weeks, boosted by gains in tech shares and miners. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose over 1% to best levels for the week. FTSE 100 rises 0.75%, underperforming at the margin. Miners and tech names are the strongest sectors with only healthcare stocks in small negative territory. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: THG shares advance as much as 10%, snapping a four-day losing streak, after a non-executive director bought stock while analysts at Goldman Sachs and Liberum defended their buy recommendations. Steico gains as much as 9.9%, the most since Jan., after the insulation manufacturer reported record quarterly revenue, which Warburg says “leaves no doubt” about underlying market momentum. Banco BPM climbs as much as 3.6% and is the day’s best performer on the FTSE MIB benchmark index; bank initiated at buy at Jefferies as broker says opportunity to internalize insurance business offers 9%-16% possible upside to 2023 consensus EPS and is not priced in by the market. Hays rises as much as 4.3% after the recruiter posted a jump in comparable net fees for the first quarter. Publicis jumps as much as 3.7%, the stock’s best day since July, with JPMorgan saying the advertising company’s results show a “strong” third quarter, though there are risks ahead. Kesko shares rise as much as 6.1%. The timing of this year’s third guidance upgrade was a surprise, Inderes says. Ubisoft shares fall as much as 5.5% after JPMorgan Cazenove (overweight) opened a negative catalyst watch, citing short-term downside risk to earnings ahead of results. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, boosted by a rebound in technology shares as traders focused on the ongoing earnings season and assessed economic-reopening prospects in the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%, as a sub-gauge of tech stocks rose, halting a three-day slide. Tokyo Electron contributed the most to the measure’s climb, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. closed up 0.4% ahead of its earnings release. India’s tech stocks rose following better-than-expected earnings for three leading firms in the sector. Philippine stocks were among Asia’s best performers as Manila began easing virus restrictions, which will allow more businesses in the capital to reopen this weekend. Indonesia’s stock benchmark rallied for a third-straight day, as the government prepared to reopen Bali to tourists. READ: Commodities Boom, Tourism Hopes Fuel Southeast Asia Stock Rally Ilya Spivak, head of Greater Asia at DailyFX, said FOMC minutes released overnight provided Asian markets with little direction, which may offer some opportunity for recouping recent losses. The report showed officials broadly agreed last month they should start reducing pandemic-era stimulus in mid-November or mid-December. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields stayed below 1.6%, providing support for tech stocks.  “Markets seemed to conclude the near-term narrative is on pause until further evidence,” Spivak said. Shares in mainland China fell as the country reported factory-gate prices grew at the fastest pace in almost 26 years in September. Singapore’s stock benchmark pared initial losses as the country’s central bank unexpectedly tightened policy. Hong Kong’s equity market was closed for a holiday In rates, Treasuries were steady to a tad higher, underperforming Bunds which advanced, led by the long end.  Fixed income is mixed: gilts bull steepen with short dates richening ~2.5bps, offering only a muted reaction to dovish commentary from BOE’s Tenreyro. Bunds rise with 10y futures breaching 169. USTs are relatively quiet with 5s30s unable to crack 100bps to the upside. Peripheral spreads widen slightly. In FX, the Turkish lira was again the overnight standout as it weakened to a record low after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired three central bankers. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell and the greenback slipped against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen, with risk-sensitive and resource-based currencies leading gains; the euro rose to trade above $1.16 for the first time in a week.  The pound rose to more than a two-week high amid dollar weakness as traders wait for a raft of Bank of England policy makers to speak. Sweden’s krona temporarily came off an almost eight-month high against the euro after inflation fell short of estimates. The euro dropped to the lowest since November against the Swiss franc as banks targeted large option barriers and leveraged sell-stops under 1.0700, traders said; Currency traders are responding to stagflation risks by turning to the Swiss franc. The Aussie advanced to a five-week high versus the greenback even as a monthly jobs report showed employment fell in September; the jobless rate rose less than economists forecast. The kiwi was a among the top performers; RBNZ Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said inflation pressures were becoming more persistent China’s yuan declined from a four-month high after the central bank signaled discomfort with recent gains by setting a weaker-than-expected reference rate. In commodities, crude futures extend Asia’s gains with WTI up ~$1 before stalling near $81.50. Brent regains a $84-handle. Spot gold drifts through Wednesday’s highs, adding $4 to print just shy of the $1,800/oz mark. Base metals are well bid with LME copper and aluminum gaining as much as 3%.  Looking at the day ahead, we’ve got central bank speakers including the Fed’s Bullard, Bostic, Barkin, Daly and Harker, the ECB’s Elderson and Knot, along with the BoE’s Deputy Governor Cunliffe, Tenreyro and Mann. Data releases from the US include the September PPI reading along with the weekly initial jobless claims. Lastly, earnings releases will include UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, US Bancorp and Walgreens Boots Alliance. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 4,382.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.9% to 464.38 MXAP up 0.7% to 196.12 MXAPJ up 0.6% to 642.66 Nikkei up 1.5% to 28,550.93 Topix up 0.7% to 1,986.97 Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 24,962.59 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,558.28 Sensex up 0.7% to 61,190.63 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,311.73 Kospi up 1.5% to 2,988.64 Brent Futures up 1.0% to $83.98/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,796.13 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.25% to 93.84 German 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to -0.143% Euro little changed at $1.1615 Brent Futures up 1.0% to $84.13/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg A flattening Treasury yield curve signals increasing concern Federal Reserve efforts to keep inflation in check will derail the recovery in the world’s largest economy China’s factory-gate prices grew at the fastest pace in almost 26 years in September, potentially adding to global inflation pressure if local businesses start passing on higher costs to consumers. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired monetary policy makers wary of cutting interest rates further, driving the lira to record lows against the dollar with his midnight decree Singapore’s central bank unexpectedly tightened its monetary policy settings, strengthening the local dollar, as the city-state joins policymakers globally concerned about risks of persistent inflation Shortages of natural gas in Europe and Asia are boosting demand for oil, deepening what was already a sizable supply deficit in crude markets, the International Energy Agency said A tropical storm that’s lashing southern China mixed with Covid-related supply chain snarls is causing a ship backlog from Shenzhen to Singapore, intensifying fears retail shelves may look rather empty come Christmas A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk A constructive mood was seen across Asia-Pac stocks with the region building on the mild positive bias stateside where the Nasdaq outperformed as tech and growth stocks benefitted from the curve flattening, with global risk appetite unfazed by the firmer US CPI data and FOMC Minutes that suggested the start of tapering in either mid-November of mid-December. The ASX 200 (+0.5%) traded higher as tech stocks found inspiration from the outperformance of US counterparts and with the mining sector buoyed by gains in underlying commodity prices. The Nikkei 225 (+1.5%) was the biggest gainer amid currency-related tailwinds and with the latest securities flow data showing a substantial shift by foreign investors to net purchases of Japanese stocks during the prior week. The KOSPI (+1.5%) conformed to the brightening picture amid signs of a slowdown in weekly infections, while the Singapore’s Straits Times Index (+0.3%) lagged for most of the session following weaker than expected Q3 GDP data, and after the MAS surprisingly tightened its FX-based policy by slightly raising the slope of the SGD nominal effective exchange rate (NEER). The Shanghai Comp. (U/C) was initially kept afloat but with gains capped after slightly softer than expected loans and financing data from China and with participants digesting mixed inflation numbers in which CPI printed below estimates but PPI topped forecasts for a record increase in factory gate prices, while there was also an absence of Stock Connect flows with participants in Hong Kong away for holiday. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher after the recent curve flattening stateside and rebound in T-notes with the US longer-end also helped by a solid 30yr auction, although gains for JGBs were capped amid the outperformance in Tokyo stocks and mostly weaker metrics at the 5yr JGB auction. Top Asian News Chinese Developer Shares Fall on Debt Crisis: Evergrande Update Japan’s Yamagiwa Says Abenomics Fell Short at Spreading Wealth China Seen Rolling Over Policy Loans to Keep Liquidity Abundant Malaysia’s 2020 Fertility Rate Falls to Lowest in Four Decades Bourses in Europe have modestly extended on the upside seen at the European cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1%; Stoxx 600 +0.9%) in a continuation of the firm sentiment experienced overnight. US equity futures have also conformed to the broader upbeat tone, with gains seen across the ES (+0.7%), NQ (+0.8%), RTY (+0.8%) and YM (+0.7%). The upside comes despite a lack of overly pertinent newsflow, with participants looking ahead to a plethora of central bank speakers. The major indices in Europe also see a broad-based performance, but the periphery narrowly outperforms, whilst the SMI (Unch) lags amid the sectorial underperformance seen in Healthcare. Overall, the sectors portray somewhat of a cyclical tilt. The Basic Resources sector is the clear winner and is closely followed by Tech and Financial Services. Individual moves are scarce as price action is largely dictated by the macro picture, but the tech sector is led higher by gains in chip names after the world's largest contract chipmaker TSMC (+3.1% pre-market) reported strong earnings and upgraded its revenue guidance. Top European News German 2021 Economic Growth Forecast Slashed on Supply Crunch U.K. Gas Shipper Stops Supplies in Another Blow to Power Firms Christmas Toy Shortages Loom as Cargo Clogs a Major U.K. Port Putin Is Back to Building Financial Fortress as Reserves Grow In FX, the Dollar and index by default have retreated further from Tuesday’s 2021 peak for the latter as US Treasury yields continue to soften and the curve realign in wake of yesterday’s broadly in line CPI data and FOMC minutes that set the schedule for tapering, but maintained a clear differential between scaling down the pace of asset purchases and the timing of rate normalisation. Hence, the Buck is losing bullish momentum with the DXY now eying bids and downside technical support under 94.000 having slipped beneath an early October low (93.804 from the 5th of the month vs 93.675 a day earlier) and the 21 DMA that comes in at 93.770 today between 94.090-93.754 parameters before the next IJC update, PPI data and a heavy slate of Fed speakers. NZD/AUD - No real surprise that the Kiwi has been given a new lease of life given that the RBNZ has already taken its first tightening step and put physical distance between the OCR and the US FFR, not to mention that the move sparked a major ‘sell fact’ after ‘buy rumour’ reaction. However, Nzd/Usd is back on the 0.7000 handle with additional impetus via favourable tailwinds down under as the Aud/Nzd cross is now nearer 1.0550 than 1.0600 even though the Aussie is also taking advantage of the Greenback’s fall from grace to reclaim 0.7400+ status. Note, Aud/Usd may be lagging somewhat on the back of a somewhat labour report overnight as the employment tally fell slightly short of expectations and participation dipped, but the jobless rate fell and full time jobs rose. Moreover, RBA Deputy Governor Debelle repeated that circumstances are different for Australia compared to countries where policy is tightening, adding that employment is positive overall, but there is not much improvement on the wage front. CAD/GBP/CHF - The next best majors in terms of reclaiming losses vs their US counterpart, with the Loonie also encouraged by a firm bounce in oil prices and other commodities in keeping with a general recovery in risk appetite. Usd/Cad is under 1.2400, while Cable is now over 1.3700 having clearly breached Fib resistance around 1.3663 and the Franc is probing 0.9200 for a big figure-plus turnaround from recent lows irrespective of mixed Swiss import and producer prices. EUR/JPY - Relative laggards, but the Euro has finally hurdled chart obstacles standing in the way of 1.1600 and gradually gathering impetus to pull away from decent option expiry interest at the round number and just above (1.5 bn and 1 bn 1.1610-20), and the Yen regrouping around the 113.50 axis regardless of dovish BoJ rhetoric. In short, board member Noguchi conceded that the Bank may have little choice but to extend pandemic relief support unless it becomes clear that the economy has returned to a pre-pandemic state, adding that more easing may be necessary if the jobs market does not improve from pent-up demand, though he doesn't see and immediate need to top up stimulus or big stagflation risk. In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are continuing the grind higher seen since the European close yesterday as the risk tone remains supportive and in the aftermath of an overall bullish IEA oil market report. The IEA upgraded its 2021 and 2022 oil demand forecasts by 170k and 210k BPD respectively, which contrasts the EIA STEO and the OPEC MOMR – with the former upping its 2021 but cutting 2022 forecast, whilst the OPEC MOMR saw the 2021 demand forecast cut and 2022 was maintained. The IEA report however noted that the ongoing energy crisis could boost oil demand by 500k BPD, and oil demand could exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2022. On this, China has asked Russia to double electricity supply between November-December. The morning saw commentary from various energy ministers, but perhaps the most telling from the Russian Deputy PM Novak who suggested Russia will produce 9.9mln BPD of oil in October (in-line with the quota), but that Russia has no problem in increasing oil output which can go to 11.3mln BPD (Russia’s capacity) and even more than that, but output will depend on market situation. Long story short, Russia can ramp up output but is currently caged by the OPEC+ pact. WTI Nov extended on gain about USD 81/bbl to a current high of USD 81.41/bbl (vs 80.41/bbl low) while its Brent counter topped USD 84.00/bbl to a USD 84.24/bbl high (vs 83.18/bbl low). As a reminder, the weekly DoEs will be released at 16:00BST/11:00EDT on account of the Columbus Day holiday. Gas prices have also moved higher in intraday, with the UK Nat Gas future +5.5% at the time of writing. Returning to the Russian Deputy PM Novak who noted that Nord Stream 2 will be ready for work in the next few days, still expects certification to occur and commercial supplies of gas via Nord Stream 2 could start following certification. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver have been drifting higher as the Buck wanes, with spot gold topping its 200 DMA (1,7995/oz) and in striking distance of its 100 DMA (1,799/oz) ahead of the USD 1,800/oz mark. Over to base metals, LME copper is again on a firmer footing, owing to the overall constructive tone across the market. Dalian iron ore meanwhile fell for a second straight day in a continuation of the downside seen as Beijing imposed tougher steel output controls for winter. World Steel Association also cut its global steel demand forecast to +4.5% in 2021 (prev. forecast +5.8%); +2.2% in 2022 (prev. forecast 2.7%). US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.7%; YoY, est. 8.6%, prior 8.3% 8:30am: Sept. PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.6%; YoY, est. 7.1%, prior 6.7% 8:30am: Sept. PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%; YoY, est. 6.5%, prior 6.3% 8:30am: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 320,000, prior 326,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.67m, prior 2.71m 9:45am: Oct. Langer Consumer Comfort, prior 53.4 Central Banks 8:35am: Fed’s Bullard Takes Part in Virtual Discussion 9:45am: Fed’s Bostic Takes Part in Panel on Inclusive Growth 12pm: New York Fed’s Logan Gives Speech on Policy Implementation 1pm: Fed’s Barkin Gives Speech 1pm: Fed’s Daly Speaks at Conference on Small Business Credit 6pm: Fed’s Harker Discusses the Economic Outlook DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Inflation dominated the conversation yet again for markets yesterday, after another upside surprise from the US CPI data led to the increasing realisation that we’ll still be talking about the topic for some time yet. Equities were pretty subdued as they looked forward to the upcoming earnings season, but investor jitters were evident as the classic inflation hedge of gold (+1.87%) posted its strongest daily performance since March, whilst the US dollar (-0.46%) ended the session as the worst performer among the G10 currencies. Running through the details of that release, headline US consumer prices were up by +0.4% on a monthly basis in September (vs. +0.3% expected), marking the 5th time in the last 7 months that the figure has come in above the median estimate on Bloomberg, though core prices were in line with consensus at +0.2% month-over-month. There were a number of drivers behind the faster pace, but food inflation (+0.93%) saw its biggest monthly increase since April 2020. Whilst some pandemic-sensitive sectors registered soft readings, housing-related prices were much firmer. Rent of primary residence grew +0.45%, its fastest pace since May 2001 and owners’ equivalent rent increased +0.43%, its strongest since June 2006. These housing gauges are something that Fed officials have signposted as having the potential to provide more durable upward pressure on inflation. The CPI release only added to speculation that the Fed would be forced to hike rates earlier than previously anticipated, and investors are now pricing in almost 4 hikes by the end of 2023, which is over a full hike more than they were pricing in just a month earlier. In response, the Treasury yield curve continued the previous day’s flattening, with the prospect of tighter monetary policy seeing the 2yr yield up +2.0bps to a post-pandemic high of 0.358%, whilst the 10yr decreased -4.0bps to 1.537%. That move lower in the 10yr yield was entirely down to lower real rates, however, which were down -7.4bps, suggesting investors were increasingly concerned about long-term growth prospects, whereas the 10yr inflation breakeven was up +3.3bps to 2.525%, its highest level since May. Meanwhile in Europe, 10yr sovereign bond yields took a turn lower alongside Treasuries, with those on bunds (-4.2bps), OATs (-4.0bps) and BTPs (-2.3bps) all falling. Recent inflation dynamics and issues on the supply-side are something that politicians have become increasingly attuned to, and President Biden gave remarks last night where he outlined efforts to address the supply-chain bottlenecks. This followed headlines earlier in the session that major ports in southern California would move to a 24/7 schedule to unclog delivery backlogs, and Mr. Biden also used the opportunity to push for the passage of the infrastructure plan. That comes as it’s also been reported by Reuters that the White House has been speaking with US oil and gas producers to see how prices can be brought lower. We should hear from Mr. Biden again today, who’s due to give an update on the Covid-19 response. On the topic of institutions that care about inflation, the September FOMC minutes suggested staff still remained optimistic that inflationary pressures would prove transitory, although Committee members themselves were predictably more split on the matter. Several participants pointed out that pandemic-sensitive prices were driving most of the gains, while some expressed concerns that high rates of inflation would feed into longer-term inflation expectations. Otherwise, the minutes all but confirmed DB’s US economists’ call for a November taper announcement, with monthly reductions in the pace of asset purchases of $10 billion for Treasuries and $5 billion for MBS. Markets took the news in their stride immediately following the release, reflecting how the build-up to this move has been gradually telegraphed through the year. Turning to equities, the S&P 500 managed to end its 3-day losing streak, gaining +0.30% by the close. Megacap technology stocks led the way, with the FANG+ index up +1.13% as the NASDAQ added +0.73%. On the other hand, cyclicals such as financials (-0.64%) lagged behind the broader index following flatter yield curve, and JPMorgan Chase (-2.64%) sold off as the company’s Q3 earnings release showed muted loan growth. Separately, Delta Air Lines (-5.76%) also sold off along with the broader S&P 500 airlines index (-3.51%), as they warned that rising fuel costs would threaten earnings over the current quarter. European indices posted a more solid performance than the US, with the STOXX 600 up +0.71%, though the sectoral balance was similar with tech stocks outperforming whilst the STOXX Banks index (-2.05%) fell back from its 2-year high the previous session. Overnight in Asia equities have put in a mixed performance, with the KOSPI (+1.17%) and the Nikkei (+1.01%) moving higher whilst the Shanghai Composite (-0.25%) and the CSI (-0.62%) have lost ground. Those moves follow the release of Chinese inflation data for September, which showed producer price inflation hit its highest in nearly 26 years, at +10.7% (vs. +10.5% expected), driven mostly by higher coal prices and energy-sensitive categories. On the other hand, the CPI measure for September came in slightly below consensus at +0.7% (vs. +0.8% expected), indicating that higher factory gate prices have not yet translated into consumer prices. Meanwhile, equity markets in the US are pointing to a positive start later on with S&P 500 futures up +0.32%. Of course, one of the drivers behind the renewal of inflation jitters has been the recent surge in commodity prices across the board, and we’ve seen further gains yesterday and this morning that will only add to the concerns about inflation readings yet to come. Oil prices have advanced yet again, with Brent Crude up +0.69% this morning to be on track to close at a 3-year high as it stands. That comes in spite of OPEC’s monthly oil market report revising down their forecast for world oil demand this year to 5.8mb/d, having been at 5.96mb/d last month. Elsewhere, European natural gas prices were up +9.24% as they continued to pare back some of the declines from last week, and a further two energy suppliers in the UK collapsed, Pure Planet and Colorado Energy, who supply quarter of a million customers between them. Otherwise, copper (+4.4x%) hit a 2-month high yesterday, and it up a further +1.01% this morning, Turning to Brexit, yesterday saw the European Commission put forward a set of adjustments to the Northern Ireland Protocol, which is a part of the Brexit deal that’s caused a significant dispute between the UK and the EU. The proposals from Commission Vice President Šefčovič would see an 80% reduction in checks on animal and plant-based products, as well as a 50% reduction in paperwork by reducing the documentation needed for goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. It follows a speech by the UK’s David Frost on Tuesday, in which he said that Article 16 of the Protocol, which allows either side to take unilateral safeguard measures, could be used “if necessary”. Mr. Frost is due to meet with Šefčovič in Brussels tomorrow. Running through yesterday’s other data, UK GDP grew by +0.4% in August (vs. +0.5% expected), and the July number was revised down to show a -0.1% contraction (vs. +0.1% growth previously). The release means that GDP in August was still -0.8% beneath its pre-pandemic level back in February 2020. To the day ahead now, and on the calendar we’ve got central bank speakers including the Fed’s Bullard, Bostic, Barkin, Daly and Harker, the ECB’s Elderson and Knot, along with the BoE’s Deputy Governor Cunliffe, Tenreyro and Mann. Data releases from the US include the September PPI reading along with the weekly initial jobless claims. Lastly, earnings releases will include UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, US Bancorp and Walgreens Boots Alliance. Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 08:29.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 14th, 2021

Economic Report: Jobless claims sink to new pandemic low and fall below 300,000 for first time in a year and a half

Just 293,000 people who recently lost their jobs applied for unemployment benefits in mid-October, pushing new U.S. jobless claims to a pandemic low amid a frantic effort by companies to hire more workers......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatchOct 14th, 2021

Apple Set to Cut iPhone Production Goals Due to Chip Crunch

Apple is likely to slash its projected iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by as many as 10 million units Apple Inc. is likely to slash its projected iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by as many as 10 million units as prolonged chip shortages hit its flagship product, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The company had expected to produce 90 million new iPhone models in the last three months of the year, but it’s now telling manufacturing partners that the total will be lower because Broadcom Inc. and Texas Instruments Inc. are struggling to deliver enough components, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the situation is private. The technology giant is one of the world’s largest chip buyers and sets the annual rhythm for the electronics supply chain. But even with strong buying power, Apple is grappling with the same supply disruptions that have wreaked havoc on industries around the world. Major chipmakers have warned that demand will continue to outpace supply throughout next year and potentially beyond. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] Read more: America’s Semiconductor Shortage Is Wreaking Havoc on Our Lives. Can We Fix It? Apple gets display parts from Texas Instruments, while Broadcom is its longtime supplier of wireless components. One TI chip in short supply for the latest iPhones is related to powering the OLED display. Apple also is facing component shortages from other suppliers. Apple and TI representatives declined to comment. Broadcom didn’t respond to a request for comment. Apple shares slipped as much as 1.6% to $139.27 in late trading after Bloomberg reported on the news. The stock was up 6.6% this year through Tuesday’s close. Broadcom and TI also dipped in after-hours trading. The shortages have already weighed on Apple’s ability to ship new models to customers. The iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max went on sale in September, but orders won’t be delivered from Apple’s website for about a month. And the new devices are listed as “currently unavailable” for pickup at several of the company’s retail stores. Apple’s carrier partners are also seeing similar shipment delays. Read more: Review: The iPhone 13 Is Perfectly Fine Current orders are slated to ship around mid-November, so Apple could still get the new iPhones to consumers in time for the crucial holiday season. The year-end quarter is expected to be Apple’s biggest sales blitz yet, generating about $120 billion in revenue. That would be up about 7% from a year earlier — and more money than Apple made in an entire year a decade ago. Apple’s woes show that even the king of the tech world isn’t immune from global shortages made worse by the pandemic. In addition to facing tight iPhone availability, the company has struggled to make enough of the Apple Watch Series 7 and other products. Earlier this year, Apple warned that it would face supply constraints of the iPhone and iPad during the quarter that ended in September. The Cupertino, California-based company cited the global chip shortages at the time. That period included about a week and a half of iPhone 13 revenue. Broadcom doesn’t have major factories of its own and relies on contract chipmakers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to build its products. Texas Instruments makes some chips in-house, but also relies on outside manufacturing. That means they’re part of an increasingly challenging fight to secure production capacity at TSMC and other foundries. Apple is a TSMC client itself — in fact, it’s the company’s largest. Apple uses the manufacturer to make its A-series processors, but they don’t appear to be under threat of shortages for now. Read more: Inside the Taiwan Firm That Makes the World’s Tech Run There are signs the chip crunch is getting worse. Lead times in the industry — the gap between putting in a semiconductor order and taking delivery — rose for the ninth month in a row to an average of 21.7 weeks in September, according to Susquehanna Financial Group. To help untangle supply chain snarls, the U.S. Department of Commerce is asking global chipmakers to respond to a set of questionnaires by Nov. 8, but that effort is facing resistance from lawmakers and executives in Taiwan and South Korea. U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo tweeted earlier this week about a proposed $52 billion plan to support chip manufacturing in the U.S. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also said he will work on establishing a chip production base in his country. Separately, a protracted energy crisis in China may add to the iPhone maker’s headaches. Apple supplier TPK Holding Co. said last week that subsidiaries in the southeastern Chinese province of Fujian are modifying their production schedule due to local government power restrictions. That comes less than two weeks after iPhone assembler Pegatron Corp. adopted energy-saving measures amid government-imposed power curbs. ____ With assistance from Mark Gurman and Ian King......»»

Category: topSource: timeOct 14th, 2021

The ‘Great Resignation’ Is Finally Getting Companies to Take Burnout Seriously. Is It Enough?

Toward the end of last year, Anthony Klotz, a professor of business administration at Texas A&M University who studies workplace resignations, realized that a lot of people were about to quit their jobs. A record 42.1 million Americans quit a job in 2019, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, but that rate dropped… Toward the end of last year, Anthony Klotz, a professor of business administration at Texas A&M University who studies workplace resignations, realized that a lot of people were about to quit their jobs. A record 42.1 million Americans quit a job in 2019, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, but that rate dropped off during the pandemic-addled year of 2020. As 2021 approached, bringing with it the promise of effective vaccines and a return to semi-normal life, Klotz guessed that two things would happen. First, many of the people who wanted to quit in 2020 but held off due to fear or uncertainty would finally feel secure enough to do so. And second, pandemic-era epiphanies, exhaustion and burnout would drive a whole new cohort of people to quit their jobs. In a moment of inspiration, Klotz predicted that a “Great Resignation” was coming. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] It’s safe to say it’s here. Every month from April to August 2021, at least 2.5% of the American workforce quit their jobs. In August alone, more than 4.2 million people handed in their two weeks’ notice, according to federal statistics. So far, 2021 quit levels are about 10% to 15% higher than they were in record-setting 2019, by Klotz’s calculations. Read more: Why Literally Millions of Americans Are Quitting Their Jobs Companies are clearly taking notice, particularly given the staffing shortages that are hamstringing many customer-facing industries and slowing the supply chain. “Just keeping people from quitting is not necessarily a good business strategy,” Klotz says. Increasingly, businesses are trying something more ambitious: actually making their workers happy. For many, that means targeting burnout, a cocktail of work-related stress, exhaustion, cynicism and negativity that is surging during the pandemic. Forty-two percent of U.S. women and 35% of U.S. men said they feel burned out often or almost always in 2021, according to a recent McKinsey & Co. report. For a long time, burnout was seen as the worker’s problem—something they needed to fix with self-care and yoga and sleep if they were going to make it in the rat race of life. There are dozens of studies and even more articles focused on curing burnout from the employee perspective. Mindfulness and meditation can help. Finding social support can help. Tailoring your job to align with your interests and values can help. But according to Christina Maslach, a social psychologist who is the U.S.’ preeminent burnout expert and co-creator of the most commonly used tool for assessing worker burnout, none of these strategies will ever be successful if they place all the onus on the worker. “Nobody is really pointing to the problem, which is that chronic job stresses have not been well managed” by employers, she says. Now, with so many people turning in resignation letters, businesses are starting to get with the program. “There’s mass attrition and it’s very expensive for employers to keep up with the amount of people who are leaving,” says workplace well-being expert Jennifer Moss, author of the recent book The Burnout Epidemic. “Because it’s now a bottom-line issue, more organizations are jumping on board.” For example: tech companies including Bumble, LinkedIn and Hootsuite closed for a week this year to give people a break and combat burnout. Fidelity Investments is piloting a program in which some employees work 30 hours a week, taking a small pay cut but keeping their full benefits. Highwire public relations, which has offices in several major U.S. cities, aimed to eliminate 30% of its meetings to give employees ample time away from Zoom, ideally translating to shorter and more efficient work days. Other employers have implemented programs meant to foster empathy, in hopes of making employees feel appreciated. But as with so many corporate initiatives—and it’s worth noting that these are mostly geared towards office-based workers, though burnout certainly exists among blue-collar workers, too—it’s hard not to feel at least a little skeptical. Can canceling a few Zoom meetings and giving people an extra week of vacation really cure a bone-deep malaise? At its core, burnout is what happens when “chronic job stressors have not been well managed,” Maslach explains. But it’s more complicated than simply feeling stressed-out or overextended. Someone suffering from burnout also has a “negative, hostile, cynical, ‘take-this-job-and-shove-it’ kind of attitude” and negative feelings about their own work and choices, Maslach says. A lawyer who becomes disillusioned with her career and begins to question why she ever went to law school at all might qualify, whereas a psychiatrist who loves but is exhausted by her job probably wouldn’t. Importantly, burnout is not a medical diagnosis or a mental health condition—instead, the World Health Organization classifies it as an “occupational phenomenon.” But studies show that it can overlap with physical and mental health issues, including depression, insomnia, gastrointestinal problems and headaches. It can even be a predictor of chronic diseases including heart disease and type 2 diabetes, research shows. Burnout is particularly common (and well-studied) among medical professionals. As of September 2020, 76% of U.S. health care workers reported exhaustion and burnout, according to the National Institute for Health Care Management Foundation (NIHCM). Even before the pandemic, between 35% and 54% of U.S. doctors and nurses reported symptoms of burnout, NIHCM says. But any person, in any profession, can experience burnout, and right now, people are reporting it in droves. Read more: Physician Burnout Costs the U.S. Billions of Dollars Each Year Work stress didn’t magically appear for the first time during the pandemic, but “there wasn’t this huge other factor looming above everyone’s head” before COVID-19 hit, says Malissa Clark, who studies employee well-being at the University of Georgia. Uncertainty can feed into burnout, she says, as can blurring the boundaries between work and home life or struggling to parent and homeschool children on top of working. In other words, the pandemic has been a “perfect storm” for burnout. For some people in a position to do so, the answer to that problem has been to quit. In a pre-pandemic Deloitte study on burnout, 42% of U.S. respondents said they had left a job specifically because of burnout—which means organizations have a clear motivation to finally take the problem seriously. There’s no one-size-fits-all burnout cure, but Maslach’s research suggests there are six key areas on which businesses should focus: creating manageable workloads giving employees control over their jobs, to the extent possible rewarding and acknowledging good work, either financially or verbally fostering community treating workers fairly and equitably helping workers find value in their work To figure out where to start, companies should ask their employees, Maslach says. Bosses often can’t see problems that exist under their noses, and they never will if they don’t ask. In a 2020 survey from PwC, 81% of surveyed executives said their company had successfully expanded childcare benefits during the pandemic, but only 45% of office workers (who did not necessarily work under the surveyed executives) said their company had done enough to support working parents. Executives were also far more likely to say their companies were supporting their employees’ mental health than were lower-level employees. Boston-based sales and marketing company HubSpot took on an anti-burnout initiative this year, in part because quarterly employee surveys began to show that the ongoing “ambiguity and uncertainty” of the pandemic were getting to people in a major way, says chief people officer Katie Burke. The company announced an annual “week of rest” for the entire staff, so that everyone could take a break without coming back to a mountain of emails; eliminated internal meetings on Fridays; offered trainings for managers who want to better support their teams; and offered resilience workshops to all staff members. On a systemic level, Burke says the company is “taking a look at the things that cause the most stress for people” and trying to develop solutions, like standardizing workloads year round (rather than having busy versus light seasons), automating certain tasks, pushing back deadlines on non-urgent products and helping people figure out how much they can feasibly accomplish in a given timeframe. “We are seeing [the results] in how happy and engaged our employees are, and honestly, just in the anecdotal feedback we’re hearing from people,” Burke says. But even that effort, which is fairly ambitious relative to other workplaces, hasn’t been enough for everyone. Writing on Blind, an anonymous messaging app for people who work in the tech industry, one unnamed HubSpot employee called the week of rest “a hollow gesture without addressing the root cause of burnout in the company.” On LinkedIn, other commenters called it “a Band-Aid.” Maslach agrees that time off alone can’t fix the problem. “If the best thing you can do for your employees is to tell them not to come to work,” she says, “what is wrong with the work?” A better way to ensure lasting change, in Moss’ opinion, is for managers to ask their employees three questions every week: “How are you?” “What are the highs and lows of this week?” And, “What can I do to make next week easier?” If bosses consistently ask those questions and actually work to solve the problems that come to light, Moss says it would go a long way. Most people don’t want “a million dollars,” she says. “It’s probably going to be, ‘Can we delegate some of this work or push this deadline off’…or, ‘I want permission to not have a full day of Zoom meetings next week.’” For people who work in jobs that typically are less flexible, like food service or retail, managers could ask for input about how schedules are made and communicated, or make it easier for people to ask for time off, Klotz says. Even something as simple as allowing people to choose when they take their breaks can make a difference. Of course, there are limits to how much an individual manager can do, particularly if their organization refuses to hire enough people or pay their existing employees fairly. (Some workers are tackling such systemic problems by unionizing or going on strike.) In the end, Moss says, the changes have to come from the top down and permeate every aspect of workplace culture. If and until that happens, Maslach says quitting will sometimes be the best option, at least for people who can afford to do so. There’s no guarantee that the next job will be better, nor that an individual’s relationship to work will change with a new position. But if a company isn’t willing to actually solve the burnout problem at its source, Maslach says employees can’t be expected to muscle through. For those who can’t or don’t want to quit, though, the Great Resignation may hold promise of another sort. Actually getting managers to listen to and solve problems might seem like a pipe dream, but Klotz says this is a perfect time for employees to test their bosses’ limits, given growing anxiety about the number of people who are resigning. If you lay your cards on the table and ask for what you want—different hours, fewer meetings, shifted responsibilities—you may end up in a better situation without going through the disruptive process of leaving and finding a new job, he says. “Why not use the leverage you have,” he says, “to turn the job you have into the job you want?”.....»»

Category: topSource: timeOct 14th, 2021

Meet the millennial and Gen Z founders dressing Jill Biden, opening NFT art galleries, and raising millions in funding

With so much change, it's hard to track the new innovators redefining the world around them. That's why Insider started profiling them in a series called Star, Rising. "Star, Rising" is a series highlighting early entrepreneurs and businesses. Samantha Lee/Insider Insider's series Star, Rising highlights early-stage entrepreneurs and companies who are gaining popularity. So far, Insider has profiled founders all over the world who are innovating their respective industries. Here are the 15 burgeoning business owners in Insider's Star, Rising series. The pandemic spurred a new wave of entrepreneurship, prompting people to start their own companies, and that doesn't seem to be slowing down. The US saw 4.3 million new business applications in 2020-a 24.3% increase from 2019-and 3.8 million so far this year, according to the US Census Bureau. That's in addition to the rise in hustle culture, as the gig economy grows and social media paves way for more virtual shops and accessible marketplaces. In particular, many millennials and Gen Zers are disrupting the industries they work in as they find their place in the protean landscape of entrepreneurship.With so much change, it can often be hard to track the new innovators seeking to redefine the world around them. That's why Insider has started profiling them in its series Star, Rising, which explores how these entrepreneurs built their businesses, who they call mentors, and what advice they would give others looking to follow in their footsteps.So far, the series has introduced Oladosu Teyibo, who is sourcing African talent for his software company to increase representation in tech, and. Sharmadean Reid, who launched a female-centric financial news publication to educate the rising crop of entrepreneurs. Here are the 13 other burgeoning founders in Insider's Star, Rising series. Sharmadean Reid's new business aims to empower entrepreneurial women. Sharmadean Reid Sharmadean Reid Reid is the founder of The Stack World, a female-centric financial publication that aims to be the stepping stone between Cosmopolitan and The Financial Times. Based in London, the outlet is on track to hit 10,000 subscribers by next year and has more than 420,000 followers on Instagram.In 2019, Reid raised nearly £4 million ($5.5 million) in a funding round led by Index Ventures for BeautyStack and has since rebranded and expanded the platform into The Stack World's marketplace. That milestone made her one of 10 Black female entrepreneurs in the UK who's raised venture capital between 2009 and 2019. Two Gen Zers turned a $2,000 investment into an art gallery that sells $600K pieces. They want to usher in a new generation of art collectors. Alexis de Bernede (R) and Marius Jacob (L)) Darmo Art Based in France, Alexis de Bernede and Marius Jacob are the founders of Darmo Art gallery. This summer, their two shows netted six figures each, and they are now planning future exhibitions in Paris, the French Riviera, and at the Grand Hotel Heiligendamm, an exclusive report in Germany. The millennial founder of a software company on track to net seven figures this year is fostering Africa's rising tech stars. Oladosu Teyibo Oladosu Teyibo Oladosu Teyibo is the founder of Analog Teams, a software development company focused on hiring talent from underrepresented communities. The company is on track to net seven figures in revenue this year and has already expanded into six African countries, including Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria.Hogoè Kpessou worked as an Uber Eats driver before she launched her handbag brand last year. Now she's on track to net seven figures. Hogoè Kpessou Hogoè Kpessou Luxury designer Hogoè Kpessou is best known for her backpacks emblazoned with a gold bumblebee. Before starting her eponymous company, she held weekend shifts at a local restaurant and delivered food for Uber Eats. Now she expects to hit seven figures in revenue by the beginning of next year.The 24-year-old cofounder of an NFT art gallery raised $7.6 million in funds on his quest to create the 'Instagram for NFTs'. Alex Masmej Alex Masmej Alex Masmej made headlines last year after turning himself into a token on crypto-platform Ethereum. Now, he's working on his next venture, called Showtime, which is an art gallery that focuses on highlighting non-fungible tokens. In April, he raised $7.6 million in venture capital and hopes to make Showtime one of the biggest NFT art galleries in the world.Three millennial cofounders created a job platform that looks like TikTok and works with Panda Express, H&M, and Everlane. (L-R) Tristan Petit, Adrien Dewulf and Cyriac Lefort Courtesy of Heroes Tristan Petit, Adrien Dewulf, and Cyriac Lefort are the cofounders of the job platform Heroes, which allows individuals to submit video job applications and lets employers share day-in-the-life videos of workers. The platform seeks to help Gen Z workers get jobs at retailers such as Panda Express and H&M. What's more, last year it closed a $6 million seed round, led by Greg McAdoo of venture capital firm Bolt. Entrepreneur Anne Onyeneho turned a cookbook into a meal-prepping business and soon a restaurant. Anne Onyeneho Anne Onyeneho Last November, Anne Onyeneho authored a cookbook full of plant-based recipes called PlantBaed to help people prepare their own healthy dishes at home. Four months later, she launched a meal prepping service, named after the cookbook, so customers could buy healthy dishes directly from her. She's on track to net six figures in revenue by the end of this year and looking to open a restaurant. Millennial fashion designer Alexandra O'Neill is seeing cocktail dress sales skyrocket as customers prepare for the new Roaring 20s Courtesy of Alexandra O'Neill Alexandra O'Neill is the founder of luxury brand Markarian and made headlines this year after First Lady Jill Biden wore a custom Markarian piece for Inauguration. Since then, the company has seen sales skyrocket. What's more, O'Neill held her first New York Fashion Week presentation in September, showing off a collection inspired by Lauren Bacall in the movie "How to Marry a Millionaire." 3 Gen Zers created a competition to connect young creatives with cash and careers amid the pandemic. (L-R) Harry Beard, Alexandre Daillance, Adam Flanagan Prospect 100 Harry Beard, Alexandre Daillance, Adam Flanagan launched the competition Prospect 100 last year to help young creatives showcase their work as the pandemic shuttered the arts industry. Since last May, it's held six competitions with more than 15,000 participants from 82 countries. Additionally, past judges include Apple cofounder Steve Wozniak and Yeezy design director Steven Smith.Brittni Popp's 6-figure side hustle is making custom cakes for celebrities like Paris Hilton and Khloe Kardashian. Brittni Popp Brittni Popp likes to help people commemorate their important life moments, whether that's a bridal party, divorce, or even an expunged DUI. Her business, Betchin Cakes, sells customized baked goods that come adorned with decorations like Barbie dolls or empty nips. In the two years since she launched her side hustle, she's landed high-profile customers like Paris Hilton and Khloe Kardashian, and is on track to make six figures in revenue this year.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 14th, 2021

Check out 8 pitch decks that legal-tech startups used to raise millions

Real examples of legal tech pitch decks that startup founders used to nab VC funding. See decks from Contractbook, Evisort, Disco and more. The legal-tech space has raised more than $1 billion in funding so far this year. Samantha Lee/Insider Funding for legal-tech has surprassed $1 billion for 2021 so far. VC firms, private equity, and even traditional law players are pouring money in. Check out these 8 pitch decks for examples of how legal-tech startup founders sold their vision. See more stories on Insider's business page. As law firms and their clients seek to digitize and streamline work, VCs have been opening their wallets to the growing legal-tech space. The total value of deals in the global legal-tech market through the end of the third quarter clocks in at $1.47 billion - far surpassing the $607 million figure from all of 2020, according to data from PitchBook.Private equity firms are also increasingly eyeing legal tech, investing more than $3.6 billion in Q1 of 2021 alone, according to market intelligence platform Bodhala.Here's a look at our legal-tech pitch deck collection.ContractPodAi SoftBank founder Masa Son. Reuters/Issei Kato A startup looking to streamline how companies handle contracts nabbed an investment from one of the world's most high-profile investors in a nod to the rising interest in legal tech. ContractPodAi, which helps in-house legal teams automate and manage their contracts, raised a $115 million Series C in late September led by SoftBank. The round quintupled ContractPodAi's valuation since its last funding round in 2019, though the company declined to disclose specific valuation numbers.The investment came from SoftBank's Vision Fund 2. Its predecessor, the original $100 billion megafund Vision Fund, has invested in dozens of household names including WeWork, Uber, and DoorDash. While some of the fund's bets were wildly successful, others fell short of expectations.ContractPodAi is the first legal-tech investment by either of SoftBank's Vision Funds.Here's the 7-page pitch deck that legal-tech startup ContractPodAi used to convince SoftBank's Masa Son to lead its $115 million Series CJus Mundi Jean-Rémi de Maistre, CEO and co-founder of Jus Mundi. Jus Mundi Jus Mundi, an AI-powered legal search engine for international law and arbitration, snapped up $10 million for its Series A in September 2021.In 2019, Jean-Rémi de Maistre, a former lawyer at the International Court of Justice, co-launched the company after realizing how hard it was to conduct research for cross-border legal cases.Paris-based Jus Mundi raised a €1 million ($1.17 USD) seed round in March 2020, spurring a fivefold growth in annual recurring revenue over the span of 2020, according to the company. Its most recent $10 million Series A was led by C4 Ventures, a European VC firm founded by Pascal Cagni, a former head of Apple Europe. The VC firm has also invested in hot-ticket companies like Foursquare, Nest, and Via.Here's the 16-page pitch deck that landed legal research company Jus Mundi a $10 million Series ALawVu LawVu co-founders Tim Boyne and Sam Kidd. LawVu LawVu, an end-to-end software platform for in-house legal teams, snapped up a $17 million Series A in August.Founded in 2015, the New Zealand-based startup enables companies' in-house lawyers to manage contracts, documents, billing, and more on one platform. The funding round was led by the private-equity firm Insight Partners, which has invested in other legal-tech companies like DocuSign, Kira Systems, and ContractPodAI, as well as big-ticket businesses like Twitter, Shopify, and Hello Fresh. AirTree Ventures, an Australia-based venture-capital firm, co-led the Series A.See the 12-page pitch deck that LawVu, a startup that wants to be Salesforce for lawyers, used to nab $17 million from investors like Insight PartnersAthennian Athennian's CEO and founder, Adrian Camara. Athennian Athennian, which helps law firms and legal departments manage data and workflow around legal entities, raised a $7 million CAD (more than $5.5 million USD) Series A extension in the beginning of March, nearly doubling its initial $8 million Series A round last year. Athennian's revenue and headcount more than doubled since the original Series A, according to founder and CEO Adrian Camara. He declined to disclose revenue numbers, but said that the sales and marketing team grew from 35 people in September to around 70 in March.Launched in 2017, Athennian is used by nearly 200 legal departments and law firms, including Dentons, Fastkind, and Paul Hastings, to automate documents like board minutes, stock certificates, and shareholder consents. The Series A extension was led by Arthur Ventures. New investors Touchdown Ventures and Clio's CEO, Jack Newton, also participated in the round, alongside Round13 Capital and other existing investors. To date, Athennian has raised $17 million CAD, or around $14 million USD, in venture capital funding, per Pitchbook.Here's the small but mighty pitch deck that nearly doubled legal tech Athennian's Series A to $12 million.Evisort Evisort's CEO and co-founder Jerry Ting. (Courtesy of Jerry Ting) Contract tech is the frontrunner in the legal tech space, as companies across industries seek to streamline their contract creation, negotiation, and management processes.Evisort, a contract lifecycle management (CLM) platform, raised $35 million in its Series B announced late February, bringing total funding to $55.5 million. The private equity firm General Atlantic led its latest funding round, with participation from existing investors Amity Ventures, Microsoft's venture firm M12, and Vertex Ventures.Founded in 2016, Evisort uses artificial intelligence to help businesses categorize, search, and act on documents.Its CEO Jerry Ting founded Evisort while he was still attending Harvard Law School. He spent one summer working at Fried Frank, but soon realized that he didn't want to be a lawyer because he didn't want to spend excruciating hours manually reading fifty-page contracts. He did, however, recognize how important they are to corporations, and co-founded Evisort as a tool to locate and track valuable information like a contract's expiration date and obligations like payment dates.Evisort's CEO walks through the 11-page pitch deck that the contract software startup used to nab $35 million from investors like General Atlantic - and lays out its path to an IPOContractbook Niels Brøchner, Jarek Owczarek, and Viktor Heide founded Contractbook to offer a client-centric tool to manage contracts, Contractbook Try to imagine the contracts negotiation process, and one might conjure up a scene where a sheaf of papers, tucked discreetly into a manila folder, is shuttled from one law office to the mahogany table of another. With a stroke of a fountain pen, the deal is sealed.Those old-school methods have long been replaced with the adoption of PDFs, redlined versions of which zip from email inbox to inbox. Now, contracting is undergoing another digital shift that will streamline the process as companies are becoming more comfortable with tech and are seeking greater efficiencies - and investors are taking note.Contractbook, a Denmark-based contract lifecycle management platform, late last year raised $9.4 million in its Series A investment round, led by venture capital titan Bessemer Venture Partners. In November 2019, Gradient Ventures, Google's AI-focused venture fund, led Contractbook's $3.9 million seed round.Founded in Copenhagen in 2017, Contractbook uses data to automate documents, offering an end-to-end contracts platform for small- and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). Niels Brøchner, the company's CEO and co-founder, said that Contractbook was born out of the notion that existing contract solutions failed to use a document's data - from names of parties to the folder the document is stored in - to automate the process and drive workflow.Here's the 13-page pitch deck that Contractbook, which wants to take on legal tech giants like DocuSign, used to raise $9.4 million from investors like Bessemer VenturesDisco Kiwi Camara, CEO and cofounder of Disco. DISCO Cloud-based technology is having its moment, especially in the legal industry.As attorneys have been propelled to work remotely amid the pandemic, data security and streamlined work processes are top-of-mind for law firms, leading them to adopt cloud technology. Investors are taking note. Disco, a cloud-based ediscovery platform that uses artificial intelligence to streamline the litigation process, snapped up $60 million in equity financing in October.Its Series F, led by Georgian Partners and also backed by VC titans like Bessemer Venture Partners and LiveOak Venture Partners, brings total investment to $195 million, valuing the company at $785 million.Launched in Houston in 2012, Disco offers AI-fueled products geared towards helping lawyers review and analyze vast quantities of documents, allowing them to more efficiently determine which ones are relevant to a case.The CEO of Disco, a legal tech that sells cloud-based discovery software, walked us through a 20-page pitch deck the startup used to nab $60 millionBlackBoiler Dan Broderick, cofounder and CEO of BlackBoiler. BlackBoiler BlackBoiler is an automated contract markup software that's used by Am Law 25 firms and several Fortune 1000 companies.The software uses machine learning to automate the process of reviewing and revising documents in "track changes." This saves attorneys the time they would typically spend marking up contracts that often use standard boilerplate language.As a pre-execution software used in the negotiation and markup stage of the contracts process, BlackBoiler has carved out a unique space in the $35 billion contracts industry, said Dan Broderick, a lawyer who co-founded the company in 2015 and is now its CEO. Broderick walked Insider through the pitch deck the company used to attract funding from investors, including DocuSign as well as 10 attorneys that run the gamut from Am Law 50 partners to general counsel at large corporations.Check out the 14-page pitch deck that contract-editing startup BlackBoiler used to nab $3.2 million from investors including DocuSignRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 13th, 2021

FOMC Minutes Confirm Tapering Begins Mid-Nov or Dec At $15BN Monthly, Several Preferred "More Rapid" Bond-Buying Cuts

FOMC Minutes Confirm Tapering Begins Mid-Nov or Dec At $15BN Monthly, Several Preferred "More Rapid" Bond-Buying Cuts Since the last FOMC meeting (September 22nd) - when Chair Powell began to detail the taper and rate-hike traajectory to come - bonds are down (yields higher) but stocks, gold, and the dollar are all up around 1%... Source: Bloomberg And even more notably, the trajectory (and initial timing) or rate-hikes has soared... Source: Bloomberg But the long-end of the yield curve is signaling that The Fed will once again commit a faux-pass... Source: Bloomberg So the big question the market is trying to glean from today's Minutes is - just how 'consensus' is the imminent taper talk... and potentially a sooner than expected rate-hike? Especially after today showed that consumer price readings have come in at 5% or higher on a year-over-year basis for five straight months, undermining the "transitory" theme put forward by central bankers. As a reminder, The Fed confirmed plans to begin reducing their bond-buying stimulus program in November and to possibly end the asset purchases entirely by the middle of next year - this was confirmed in the Minutes... Participants also expressed their views on how slowing in the pace of purchases might proceed. In particular, participants commented on an illustrative path, developed by the staff and reflecting participants' discussions at the Committee's July meeting, that gave the speed and composition associated with a tapering of asset purchases. The illustrative tapering path was designed to be simple to communicate and entailed a gradual reduction in the pace of net asset purchases that, if begun later this year, would lead the Federal Reserve to end purchases around the middle of next year. The path featured monthly reductions in the pace of asset purchases, by $10 billion in the case of Treasury securities and $5 billion in the case of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Participants generally commented that the illustrative path provided a straightforward and appropriate template that policymakers might follow, and a couple of participants observed that giving advance notice to the general public of a plan along these lines may reduce the risk of an adverse market reaction to a moderation in asset purchases. Participants noted that, in keeping with the outcome-based standard for initiating a tapering of asset purchases, the Committee could adjust the pace of the moderation of its purchases if economic developments were to differ substantially from what they expected. Several participants indicated that they preferred to proceed with a more rapid moderation of purchases than described in the illustrative examples. No decision to proceed with a moderation of asset purchases was made at the meeting, but participants generally assessed that, provided that the economic recovery remained broadly on track, a gradual tapering process that concluded around the middle of next year would likely be appropriate. Participants noted that if a decision to begin tapering purchases occurred at the next meeting, the process of tapering could commence with the monthly purchase calendars beginning in either mid-November or mid-December. Several participants indicated that they preferred to proceed with a more rapid moderation of purchases than described in the illustrative examples. This is what that looks like... “Many” thought the progress test would be met “soon” A number of participants assessed that the standard of substantial further progress toward the goal of maximum employment had not yet been attained but that, if the economy proceeded roughly as they anticipated, it may soon be reached.” On rate-hikes: “Various participants stressed that economic conditions were likely to justify keeping the rate at or near its lower bound over the next couple of years.” On Inflation: Some participants expressed concerns that elevated rates of inflation could feed through into longer-term inflation expectations of households and businesses or saw recent inflation data as suggestive of broader inflation pressures. Several other participants pointed out that the largest contributors to the recent elevated measures of inflation were a handful of COVID-related, pandemic-sensitive categories in which specific, identifiable bottlenecks were at play. This observation suggested that the upward pressure on prices would abate as the COVID-related demand and supply imbalances subsided. These participants noted that prices in some of those categories showed signs of stabilizing or even turned down of late. Many participants pointed out that the owners' equivalent rent component of price indexes should be monitored carefully, as rising home prices could lead to upward pressure on rents. A few participants noted that there was not yet evidence that robust wage growth was exerting upward pressure on prices to a significant degree, but also that the possibility merited close monitoring. On "Transitory" Inflation: Participants noted that their contacts generally did not expect bottlenecks to be fully resolved until sometime next year or even later. On Evergrande contagion: Concerns over the period about the effects of COVID-19 developments on economic performance and, late in the period, about a heavily indebted Chinese property developer appeared to have only marginal net effects on financial asset prices. ... On September 20, stock market prices fell notably and speculative-grade yield spreads widened amid rising concerns about the creditworthiness of a Chinese property developer, but these moves were mostly reversed during the following day, particularly in the stock market. On the economy: In discussing the uncertainty and risks associated with the economic outlook, participants noted that uncertainty remained high. A number of participants judged that the uncertain course of the virus, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages complicated the task of interpreting incoming economic data and assessing progress toward the Committee's goals. Participants generally saw the risks to the outlook for economic activity as broadly balanced. Uncertainty around the course of the virus, the resolution of supply constraints, and fiscal measures were cited as presenting both upside and downside risks. In addition, some participants mentioned the risks associated with high asset valuations in the United States and abroad, and a number of participants commented on the importance of resolving the issues involving the federal government budget and debt ceiling in a timely manner. Most participants saw inflation risks as weighted to the upside because of concerns that supply disruptions and labor shortages might last longer and might have larger or more persistent effects on prices and wages than they currently assumed. A few participants commented that there were also some downside risks for inflation, as the factors that had held inflation down over the previous long expansion were likely still in place. There was complete unanimity in the decision to taper: All participants agreed that it would be appropriate for the current meeting's postmeeting statement to relay the Committee's judgment that, if progress continued broadly as expected, a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted Finally, there were 18 mentions of COVID in Sept Minutes, up from 3 in August. *  *  * Read the full FOMC Minutes below: Tyler Durden Wed, 10/13/2021 - 14:08.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 13th, 2021

78% of community bank executives expect the housing market to crash by 2026

Home prices have surged the most in 45 years, and community bankers fear the bubble will soon burst. Economists see little reason for such concern. Robert Galbraith/ Reuters Seventy-eight percent of community bank executives expect US housing to crash by 2026, a survey showed Wednesday. The fears come amid the fastest home-price growth in at least 45 years and people tapping home equity at the fastest rate since the 2007 bubble. Some economists, however, argue that price growth will slowly cool throughout 2022 without a market crash. Economists expect US housing to slowly cool off after running white-hot in 2021. Community bankers worry the end of the buying frenzy will be much more dramatic.Seventy-eight percent of community bank executives predict the US housing market will crash at some point in the next five years, according to a survey published Wednesday by software firm MANTL and Wakefield Research. The widespread concern follows several months of record-breaking home inflation that's left buyers struggling to keep up. And as builders fail to match supply with demand, experts wonder exactly how the market will normalize: with a fizzle or a bang?Banks are concerned the market has a long way to fallUS house prices were up 18.1% year-over-year in August, according to CoreLogic's home price index. That's the fastest rate of home inflation in at least 45 years.Much of the price surge has been fueled by a historic shortage of houses. US home inventory plummeted to record lows earlier in the pandemic, leaving buyers to bid against each other on too few units. Those bidding wars boosted prices higher and dented affordability across the country.It's not just that prices are high. When adjusted for inflation, home prices have risen to record highs for five months straight. Prices now surpass the peak seen in 2006, just before the market crashed and fueled the global financial crisis.!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytOct 13th, 2021

Why you should be celebrating the record number of people saying, "I quit"

Over 4 million Americans quit their jobs in September, extending a streak of record walkouts. They're probably unlocking better pay and productivity. Mixetto/Getty Images In August, 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs, extending a five-month streak of historically high walkouts. While quitting could hold up the wider economic recovery, workers who quit likely find better pay and productivity. Americans are simply capitalizing on a wide range of job opportunities, one labor-market economist told Insider. Americans are ditching their jobs at a record pace. While employers bemoan a labor shortage, the extraordinary amount of quitting suggests the US economy will bounce back stronger than ever before.August marked the fifth month of Americans quitting in near-record numbers, with 4.3 million workers quitting. The continually elevated departures show that workers are taking more control over their careers - and saying no to low wages and bad working conditions.There are plenty of reasons for Americans to quit their jobs right now. COVID-19 continues to rage across the country, making some Americans too concerned to work in-person jobs, or leaving work to take care of their own or someone else's coronavirus symptoms.Burnout has become a crisis of its own, particularly in sectors where reopening brought a sudden surge of demand.And some people are simply just leaving their jobs for better work.The last reason is exactly why record-high quits should be applauded, not feared. Usually quits tick up when the labor market is strong and unemployment is low; indeed, unemployment dropped to 4.8% in September, even as the country added a lower than expected number of jobs. Recent data backs up the idea that workers are quitting amid a plethora of options. Job openings soared to record highs through much of 2021 and, despite falling in August, still totaled more than 10 million, according to JOLTS data published Tuesday.There's a whole lot of opportunities out there right now, Nick Bunker, economic research director at Indeed, told Insider. "We're seeing lots of workers seemingly going out and seizing them." The benefits of being a quitterLeaving one's job doesn't just free up new work opportunities. Research suggests it gives way to higher pay and greater productivity.In fact, it could lead to a whole new economy: Arindrajit Dube, an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, wrote on Twitter that if quits stay elevated through next year, it "could have a fundamental and lasting impact on labor market power and wage norms." There's a "remarkably strong relationship" between switching jobs and higher wages, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago found in 2015. Switching jobs tends to push workers up the economic ladder. Generally, a jump in the quit rate leads to stronger wage growth one to two quarters later, the team said.Quitting can also give way to stronger productivity. Some of the strongest productivity gains of the last decade have taken place during the pandemic, when workers were leaving their jobs and looking for new ones. Businesses are pushed to do the same amount of work with fewer employees, forcing adoption of new practices or technologies.And Americans who quit can better match their skills with a new job. That also lifts productivity and gives workers more power when bargaining for higher pay."One of the best ways for a person to boost their earnings is to switch jobs. And I think that's very much likely to be the case right now," Bunker said.Quits can also send a strong message to companies mired in the status quoDataTrek Research, an economic research group, tracks what it calls the "take this job and shove it" indicator. That's the share of job separations that were quits as opposed to layoffs or other reasons for leaving work.Jessica Rabe, DataTrek's co-founder, told Insider in an email that the indicator rose to a record 71.1% in August. She noted that two-thirds of the month's increase in quits came from accommodation and food services - an industry that is historically lower-paying and has been hard-hit by labor shortages."That tells us workers continue to leave the restaurant industry amid challenging demands put on existing staff due to labor shortages and other requirements, such as mask mandates for customers," Rabe said. And, because the quits rate has remained high in leisure and hospitality, "the industry will remain constrained due to the dearth in available workers which will continue to weigh on overall employment."To be sure, quits data only tells economists so much about where workers are going next. Quits only show Americans leaving their jobs, not finding new ones. And JOLTS data doesn't show whether Americans quitting their jobs left for other sectors or stayed in the same industry.If labor shortages continue, the number of workers quitting might remain stubbornly high."The outlook for demands still seems pretty robust moving forward," Bunker said. "So it seems likely we will see quitting stay elevated for quite some time." Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytOct 13th, 2021

NVIDIA (NVDA) Gains on Strong GPU Adoption in Gaming, Data Center

NVIDIA (NVDA) is benefiting from stellar demand for its graphics processing units (GPUs) used in gaming, cloud computing and data centers. NVIDIA NVDA is benefiting from the solid adoption of its graphics processing units (GPUs) in the data-center and gaming end markets.The accelerated adoption of cloud-based solutions amid the remote-working and online-learning trend is aiding NVIDIA’s data-center business. The lockdown and social-distancing measures adopted by governments across the world to contain the spread of coronavirus has boosted the usage of online and e-commerce services globally.Apart from this, the pandemic-induced work-and-learn-from-home wave is stoking demand for cloud storage. Therefore, the data-center operators are enhancing their capacities to accommodate this demand spike for cloud services.Data center presents a solid growth opportunity for the company. As more businesses are shifting to cloud, the need for data centers is shooting up. To cater to this huge demand, the data-center operators like Amazon AMZN, Alphabet GOOGL, and Microsoft MSFT are expanding their operations across the world, which is driving the demand for GPUs.This bodes well for NVIDIA. The company’s revenues from the segment increased to $6.7 billion in fiscal 2021 from a mere $339 million in fiscal 2016.NVIDIA is also benefiting from the pandemic-induced stay-at-home instructions, which are spurring demand for its gaming chips as people surf games to stay engaged and entertain themselves indoors.In the last reported quarter, revenues from the gaming business unit soared 106% year over year and 11%, sequentially, to $2.76 billion on higher sales across the company’s notebook and desktop gaming GPUs and game console SOCs.Moreover, a better visualization and speed are needed for a thrilling gaming experience, which NVIDIA successfully provides through its portfolio of Pascal architecture-based GPUs. Furthermore, with the emergence of Gaming-as-a-Service (GaaS) and massively multip-layer online games (MMOG) concepts, the demand for GPUs has been surging exponentially.Notably, the gaming segment’s revenues reached $7.8 billion in fiscal 2021 from $2.8 billion in fiscal 2016, reflecting more than two-fold growth. Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. You know this company from its past glory days, but few would expect that it's poised for a monster turnaround. Fresh from a successful repositioning and flush with A-list celeb endorsements, it could rival or surpass other recent Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in a little more than 9 months and Nvidia which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Free Stock Analysis Report Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): Free Stock Analysis Report NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Free Stock Analysis Report Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksOct 13th, 2021

Netflix"s top 10 original TV show hits of all time, including "Squid Game" and "Bridgerton"

"Squid Game" is Netflix's biggest original series ever with 111 million households watching in its first month, followed by "Bridgerton." "Squid Game." Netflix Netflix said that "Squid Game" was its biggest original series ever with 111 million households watching in the first four weeks. It topped "Bridgerton," which was watched by 82 million households. Insider ranked Netflix's biggest originals based on how many member households watched each in the first 28 days. Netflix counts a view if an account watches at least two minutes of a show or movie. Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories. 10. "Sweet Tooth" season one - 60 million "Sweet Tooth." Netflix Description: "On a perilous adventure across a post-apocalyptic world, a lovable boy who's half-human and half-deer searches for a new beginning with a gruff protector."Rotten Tomatoes critic score: 98%What critics said: "Sweet Tooth is especially compelling as many of us move toward some form of post-pandemic normalcy, raising questions about what new world awaits us after such tremendous, collective loss." — Salon 9. "The Queen's Gambit" - 62 million Beth Harmon practices chess in a hotel room. Phil Bray/Netflix Description: "In a 1950s orphanage, a young girl reveals an astonishing talent for chess and begins an unlikely journey to stardom while grappling with addiction."Rotten Tomatoes critic score: 97%What critics said: "Raise your hand if you anticipated a coming-of-age, period-piece drama about a female chess prodigy in the 1950s and 1960s becoming perhaps the most addictive and binge-worthy series of 2020." — Chicago Sun-Times 8. "Tiger King: Murder, Mayhem and Madness" season one - 64 million "Tiger King: Murder, Mayhem, and Madness" was released on Netflix on March 20, 2020. Netflix Description: "A zoo owner spirals out of control amid a cast of eccentric characters in this true murder-for-hire story from the underworld of big cat breeding."Rotten Tomatoes critic score: 86%What critics said: "A compelling series in fits and starts that doesn't amount to much more than a trip through an extremely strange world filled with extremely strange people." — Newsday 7. "La Casa de Papel (Money Heist)" season four - 65 million Netflix Description: "Eight thieves take hostages and lock themselves in the Royal Mint of Spain as a criminal mastermind manipulates the police to carry out his plan."Rotten Tomatoes critic score: 75%What critics said: "All the joy in the heist format is wondering how the robbers will escape. With Money Heist, I'm starting to dread the new ways the producers will find to keep me locked in." — Independent 6. (tie) "Stranger Things" season three - 67 million "Stranger Things." Netflix Description: "When a young boy vanishes, a small town uncovers a mystery involving secret experiments, terrifying supernatural forces and one strange little girl."Rotten Tomatoes critic score: 89%What critics said: "It's a real and joyful return to form for the show that has been taken fiercely to the hearts of people who weren't there the first time round and, perhaps even more fiercely, by those who were." — Guardian 6. (tie) "Sex/Life" season one - 67 million Netflix Description: "A woman's daring sexual past collides with her married-with-kids present when the bad-boy ex she can't stop fantasizing about crashes back into her life."Rotten Tomatoes critic score: 23%What critics said: "Sex/Life drowns itself in the shallow end, so to speak, by failing to even generate much heat. There are plenty of R-rated scenes-so many, actually, that they get repetitive." — Time Magazine 4. (tie) "The Witcher" season one - 76 million Netflix Description: "Geralt of Rivia, a mutated monster-hunter for hire, journeys toward his destiny in a turbulent world where people often prove more wicked than beasts."Rotten Tomatoes critic score: 67%What critics said: "And although The Witcher is more fantasy balderdash, it's also somewhat addictive fantasy balderdash. Bring on the blood-spilling, the orgies, the haunted forests and wizards: It seems we can't get enough." — Detroit News 4. (tie) "Lupin" season one - 76 million Omar Sy stars in "Lupin." Emmanuel Guimier/Netflix Description: "Inspired by the adventures of Arsène Lupin, gentleman thief Assane Diop sets out to avenge his father for an injustice inflicted by a wealthy family."Rotten Tomatoes critic score: 98%What critics said: "The series also doesn't waste a single minute, packing each and every moment full of suspense. Put all of that together, and it's an early front-runner to steal a spot as one of the best shows of the year." — Slate 2. "Bridgerton" season one - 82 million Netflix Description: "The eight close-knit siblings of the Bridgerton family look for love and happiness in London high society. Inspired by Julia Quinn's bestselling novels."Rotten Tomatoes critic score: 89%What critics said: "There are eight episodes of Bridgerton, and they all have endings that are like chapters in a good book: They leave you in a spot where you just want to read one more chapter before you turn off the light for the night." — NPR 1. "Squid Game" season one - 111 million Youngkyu Park Description: "Hundreds of cash-strapped players accept a strange invitation to compete in children's games. Inside, a tempting prize awaits — with deadly high stakes."Rotten Tomatoes critic score: 91%What critics said: "A twisty, fast-paced, action-packed show whose episodes end in killer cliffhangers — in other words, the ultimate binge bait." — Time Magazine Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytOct 13th, 2021

Futures Reverse Losses Ahead Of Key CPI Report

Futures Reverse Losses Ahead Of Key CPI Report For the second day in a row, an overnight slump in equity futures sparked by concerns about iPhone sales (with Bloomberg reporting at the close on Tuesday that iPhone 13 production target may be cut by 10mm units due to chip shortages) and driven be more weakness out of China was rescued thanks to aggressive buying around the European open. At 800 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 35 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10.25 points, or 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 58.50 points, or 0.4% ahead of the CPI report due at 830am ET. 10Y yields dipped to 1.566%, the dollar was lower and Brent crude dropped below $83. JPMorgan rose as much as 0.8% in premarket trading after the firm’s merger advisory business reported its best quarterly profit. On the other end, Apple dropped 1% lower in premarket trading, a day after Bloomberg reported that the technology giant is likely to slash its projected iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by as many as 10 million units due to prolonged chip shortages. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Suppliers Skyworks Solutions (SWKS US), Qorvo (ORVO) and Cirrus Logic (CRUS US) slipped Tuesday postmarket Koss (KOSS US) shares jump 23% in U.S. premarket trading in an extension of Tuesday’s surge after tech giant Apple was rebuffed in two patent challenges against the headphones and speakers firm Qualcomm (QCOM US) shares were up 2.7% in U.S. premarket trading after it announced a $10.0 billion stock buyback International Paper (IP US) in focus after its board authorized a program to acquire up to $2b of the company’s common stock; cut quarterly dividend by 5c per share Smart Global (SGH US) shares rose 2% Tuesday postmarket after it reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate Wayfair (W US) shares slide 1.8% in thin premarket trading after the stock gets tactical downgrade to hold at Jefferies Plug Power (PLUG US) gains 4.9% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley upgrades the fuel cell systems company to overweight, saying in note that it’s “particularly well positioned” to be a leader in the hydrogen economy Wall Street ended lower in choppy trading on Tuesday, as investors grew jittery in the run-up to earnings amid worries about supply chain problems and higher prices affecting businesses emerging from the pandemic. As we noted last night, the S&P 500 has gone 27 straight days without rallying to a fresh high, the longest such stretch since last September, signaling some fatigue in the dip-buying that pushed the market up from drops earlier this year. Focus now turn to inflation data, due at 0830 a.m. ET, which will cement the imminent arrival of the Fed's taper.  "A strong inflation will only reinforce the expectation that the Fed would start tapering its bond purchases by next month, that's already priced in," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. "Yet, a too strong figure could boost expectations of an earlier rate hike from the Fed and that is not necessarily fully priced in." The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting, due later in the day, will also be scrutinized for signals that the days of crisis-era policy were numbered. Most European equities reverse small opening losses and were last up about 0.5%, as news that German software giant SAP increased its revenue forecast led tech stocks higher. DAX gained 0.7% with tech, retail and travel names leading. FTSE 100, FTSE MIB and IBEX remained in the red. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Entra shares gain as much as 10% after Balder increases its stake and says it intends to submit a mandatory offer. Spie jumps as much as 10%, the biggest intraday gain in more than a year, after the French company pulled out of the process to buy Engie’s Equans services unit. Man Group rises as much as 8.3% after the world’s largest publicly traded hedge fund announced quarterly record inflows. 3Q21 net inflows were a “clear beat” and confirm pipeline strength, Morgan Stanley said in a note. Barratt Developments climbs as much as 6.3%, with analysts saying the U.K. homebuilder’s update shows current trading is improving. Recticel climbs 15% to its highest level in more than 20 years as the stock resumes trading after the company announced plans to sell its foams unit to Carpenter Co. Bossard Holding rises as much as 9.1% to a record high after the company reported 3Q earnings that ZKB said show strong growth. Sartorius gains as much as 5.9% after Kepler Cheuvreux upgrades to hold from sell and raises its price target, saying it expects “impressive earnings growth” to continue for the lab equipment company. SAP jumps as much as 5% after the German software giant increased its revenue forecast owing to accelerating cloud sales. Just Eat Takeaway slides as much as 5.8% in Amsterdam to the lowest since March 2020 after a 3Q trading update. Analysts flagged disappointing orders as pandemic restrictions eased, and an underwhelming performance in the online food delivery firm’s U.S. market. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks posted a modest advance as investors awaited key inflation data out of the U.S. and Hong Kong closed its equity market because of typhoon Kompasu. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2% after fluctuating between gains and losses, with chip and electronics manufacturers sliding amid concerns over memory chip supply-chain issues and Apple’s iPhone 13 production targets. Hong Kong’s $6.3 trillion market was shut as strong winds and rain hit the financial hub.  “Broader supply tightness continues to be a real issue across a number of end markets,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Katy L. Huberty wrote in a note. The most significant iPhone production bottleneck stems from a “shortage of camera modules for the iPhone 13 Pro/Pro Max due to low utilization rates at a Sharp factory in southern Vietnam,” they added. Wednesday’s direction-less trading illustrated the uncertainty in Asian markets as traders reassess earnings forecasts to factor in inflation and supply chain concerns. U.S. consumer price index figures and FOMC minutes due overnight may move shares. Southeast Asian indexes rose thanks to their cyclical exposure. Singapore’s stock gauge was the top performer in the region, rising to its highest in about two months, before the the nation’s central bank decides on monetary policy on Thursday. Japanese stocks fell for a second day as electronics makers declined amid worries about memory chip supply-chain issues and concerns over Apple’s iPhone 13 production targets.  The Topix index fell 0.4% to 1,973.83 at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 0.3% to 28,140.28. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s loss, decreasing 1.3%. Out of 2,181 shares in the index, 608 rose and 1,489 fell, while 84 were unchanged. Japanese Apple suppliers such as TDK, Murata and Taiyo Yuden slid. The U.S. company is likely to slash its projected iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by as many as 10 million units as prolonged chip shortages hit its flagship product, according to people with knowledge of the matter Australian stocks closed lower as banks and miners weighed on the index. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.1% to close at 7,272.50, dragged down by banks and miners as iron ore extended its decline. All other subgauges edged higher. a2 Milk surged after its peer Bubs Australia reported growing China sales and pointed to a better outlook for daigou channels. Bank of Queensland tumbled after its earnings release. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.2% to 13,025.18. In rates, Treasuries extended Tuesday’s bull-flattening gains, led by gilts and, to a lesser extent, bunds. Treasuries were richer by ~2bps across the long-end of the curve, flattening 5s30s by about that much; U.K. 30-year yield is down nearly 7bp, with same curve flatter by ~6bp. Long-end gilts outperform in a broad-based bull flattening move that pushed 30y gilt yields down ~7bps back near 1.38%. Peripheral spreads widen slightly to Germany. Cash USTs bull flatten but trade cheaper by ~2bps across the back end to both bunds and gilt ahead of today’s CPI release. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by as much as 0.2% and the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers; the Treasury curve flattened, mainly via falling yields in the long- end, The euro advanced to trade at around $1.1550 and the Bund yield curve flattened, with German bonds outperforming Treasuries. The euro’s volatility skew versus the dollar shows investors remain bearish the common currency as policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank remains for now. The pound advanced with traders shrugging off the U.K.’s weaker-than-expected economic growth performance in August. Australia’s sovereign yield curve flattened for a second day while the currency underperformed its New Zealand peer amid a drop in iron ore prices. The yen steadied after four days of declines. In commodities, crude futures hold a narrow range with WTI near $80, Brent dipping slightly below $83. Spot gold pops back toward Tuesday’s best levels near $1,770/oz. Base metals are in the green with most of the complex up at least 1%. To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the aforementioned US CPI reading for September, while today will also see the most recent FOMC meeting minutes released. Other data releases include UK GDP for August and Euro Area industrial production for August. Central bank speakers include BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe, the ECB’s Visco and the Fed’s Brainard. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock and Delta Air Lines. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,346.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 459.04 MXAP up 0.2% to 194.60 MXAPJ up 0.4% to 638.16 Nikkei down 0.3% to 28,140.28 Topix down 0.4% to 1,973.83 Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 24,962.59 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,561.76 Sensex up 0.8% to 60,782.71 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 7,272.54 Kospi up 1.0% to 2,944.41 Brent Futures down 0.4% to $83.12/bbl Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,768.13 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.23% to 94.30 German 10Y yield fell 4.2 bps to -0.127% Euro little changed at $1.1553 Brent Futures down 0.4% to $83.12/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Vladimir Putin wants to press the EU to rewrite some of the rules of its gas market after years of ignoring Moscow’s concerns, to tilt them away from spot-pricing toward long-term contracts favored by Russia’s state run Gazprom, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. Russia is also seeking rapid certification of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany to boost gas deliveries, they said. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will be removed from his role as the main watchdog of Wall Street lenders after his title officially expires this week. The EU will offer a new package of concessions to the U.K. that would ease trade barriers in Northern Ireland, as the two sides prepare for a new round of contentious Brexit negotiations. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is on course to raise taxes and cut spending to control the budget deficit, while BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has warned interest rates are likely to rise in the coming months to curb a rapid surge in prices. Together, those moves would mark a simultaneous major tightening of both policy levers just months after the biggest recession in a century -- an unprecedented move since the BoE gained independence in 1997. Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, was charged with bribery in Slovakia. Kazimir, who heads the country’s central bank, rejected the allegations A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mixed following the choppy performance stateside with global risk appetite cautious amid the rate hike bets in US and heading into key events including US CPI and FOMC Minutes, while there were also mild headwinds for US equity futures after the closing bell on reports that Apple is set to reduce output of iPhones by 10mln from what was initially planned amid the chip shortage. ASX 200 (unch.) was little changed as gains in gold miners, energy and tech were offset by losses in financials and the broader mining sector, with softer Westpac Consumer Confidence also limiting upside in the index. Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) was pressured at the open as participants digested mixed Machinery Orders data which showed the largest M/M contraction since February 2018 and prompted the government to cut its assessment on machinery orders, although the benchmark index gradually retraced most its losses after finding support around the 28k level and amid the recent favourable currency moves. Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) also declined as participants digested mixed Chinese trade data in which exports topped estimates but imports disappointed and with Hong Kong markets kept shut due to a typhoon warning. Finally, 10yr JGBs were steady with price action contained after the curve flattening stateside and tentative mood heading to upcoming risk events, although prices were kept afloat amid the BoJ’s purchases in the market for around JPY 1tln of JGBs predominantly focused on 1-3yr and 5-10yr maturities. Top Asian News Gold Edges Higher on Weaker Dollar Before U.S. Inflation Report RBA Rate Hike Expectations Too Aggressive, TD Ameritrade Says LG Electronics Has Series of Stock-Target Cuts After Profit Miss The mood across European stocks has improved from the subdued cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%; Stoxx 600 +0.3%) despite a distinct lack of newsflow and heading into the official start of US earnings season, US CPI and FOMC minutes. US equity futures have also nursed earlier losses and trade in modest positive territory across the board, with the NQ (+0.5%) narrowly outperforming owing to the intraday fall in yields, alongside the sectorial outperformance seen in European tech amid tech giant SAP (+4.7%) upgrading its full FY outlook, reflecting the strong business performance which is expected to continue to accelerate cloud revenue growth. As such, the DAX 40 (+0.7%) outperformed since the cash open, whilst the FTSE 100 (-0.2%) is weighed on by underperformance in its heavyweight Banking and Basic Resources sectors amid a decline in yields and hefty losses in iron ore prices. Elsewhere, the CAC 40 (+0.3%) is buoyed by LMVH (+2.0%) after the luxury name topped revenue forecasts and subsequently lifted the Retail sector in tandem. Overall, sectors are mixed with no clear bias. In terms of individual movers, Volkswagen (+3.5%) was bolstered amid Handelsblatt reports in which the Co was said to be cutting some 30k jobs as costs are too high vs competitors, whilst separate sources suggested the automaker is said to be mulling spinning off its Battery Cell and charging unit. Chipmakers meanwhile see mixed fortunes in the aftermath of sources which suggested Apple (-0.7% pre-market) is said to be slashing output amid the chip crunch. Top European News The Hut Shares Swing as Strategy Day Feeds Investor Concern U.K. Economy Grows Less Than Expected as Services Disappoint Man Group Gets $5.3 Billion to Lift Assets to Another Record Jeff Ubben and Singapore’s GIC Back $830 Million Fertiglobe IPO In FX, the Dollar looks somewhat deflated or jaded after yesterday’s exertions when it carved out several fresh 2021 highs against rival currencies and a new record peak vs the increasingly beleaguered Turkish Lira. In index terms, a bout of profit taking, consolidation and position paring seems to have prompted a pull-back from 94.563 into a marginally lower 94.533-246 range awaiting potentially pivotal US inflation data, more Fed rhetoric and FOMC minutes from the last policy meeting that may provide more clues or clarity about prospects for near term tapering. NZD/GBP - Both taking advantage of the Greenback’s aforementioned loss of momentum, but also deriving impetus from favourable crosswinds closer to home as the Kiwi briefly revisited 0.6950+ terrain and Aud/Nzd retreats quite sharply from 1.0600+, while Cable has rebounded through 1.3600 again as Eur/Gbp retests support south of 0.8480 yet again, or 1.1800 as a reciprocal. From a fundamental perspective, Nzd/Usd may also be gleaning leverage from the more forward-looking Activity Outlook component of ANZ’s preliminary business survey for October rather than a decline in sentiment, and Sterling could be content with reported concessions from the EU on NI customs in an effort to resolve the Protocol impasse. EUR/CAD/AUD/CHF - Also reclaiming some lost ground against the Buck, with the Euro rebounding from around 1.1525 to circa 1.1560, though not technically stable until closer to 1.1600 having faded ahead of the round number on several occasions in the last week. Meanwhile, the Loonie is straddling 1.2450 in keeping with WTI crude on the Usd 80/brl handle, the Aussie is pivoting 0.7350, but capped in wake of a dip in Westpac consumer confidence, and the Franc is rotating either side of 0.9300. JPY - The Yen seems rather reluctant to get too carried away by the Dollar’s demise or join the broad retracement given so many false dawns of late before further depreciation and a continuation of its losing streak. Indeed, the latest recovery has stalled around 113.35 and Usd/Jpy appears firmly underpinned following significantly weaker than expected Japanese m/m machinery orders overnight. SCANDI/EM - Not much upside in the Sek via firmer Swedish money market inflation expectations and perhaps due to the fact that actual CPI data preceded the latest survey and topped consensus, but the Cnh and Cny are firmer on the back of China’s much wider than forecast trade surplus that was bloated by exports exceeding estimates by some distance in contrast to imports. Elsewhere, further hawkish guidance for the Czk as CNB’s Benda contends that high inflation warrants relatively rapid tightening, but the Try has not derived a lot of support from reports that Turkey is in talks to secure extra gas supplies to meet demand this winter, according to a Minister, and perhaps due to more sabre-rattling from the Foreign Ministry over Syria with accusations aimed at the US and Russia. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures see another choppy session within recent and elevated levels – with the former around USD 80.50/bbl (80.79-79.87/bbl) and the latter around 83.35/bbl (83.50-82.65/bbl range). The complex saw some downside in conjunction with jawboning from the Iraqi Energy Minster, who state oil price is unlikely to increase further, whilst at the same time, the Gazprom CEO suggested that the oil market is overheated. Nonetheless, prices saw a rebound from those lows heading into the US inflation figure, whilst the OPEC MOMR is scheduled for 12:00BST/07:00EDT. Although the release will not likely sway prices amidst the myriad of risk events on the docket, it will offer a peek into OPEC's current thinking on the market. As a reminder, the weekly Private Inventory report will be released tonight, with the DoE's slated for tomorrow on account of Monday's Columbus Day holiday. Gas prices, meanwhile, are relatively stable. Russia's Kremlin noted gas supplies have increased to their maximum possible levels, whilst Gazprom is sticking to its contractual obligations, and there can be no gas supplies beyond those obligations. Over to metals, spot gold and silver move in tandem with the receding Buck, with spot gold inching closer towards its 50 DMA at 1,776/oz (vs low 1,759.50/oz). In terms of base metals, LME copper has regained a footing above USD 9,500/t as stocks grind higher. Conversely, iron ore and rebar futures overnight fell some 6%, with overnight headlines suggesting that China has required steel mills to cut winter output. Further from the supply side, Nyrstar is to limit European smelter output by up to 50% due to energy costs. Nyrstar has a market-leading position in zinc and lead. LME zinc hit the highest levels since March 2018 following the headlines US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. CPI YoY, est. 5.3%, prior 5.3%; MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3% 8:30am: Sept. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 4.0%, prior 4.0%; MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1% 8:30am: Sept. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -0.9%, revised -1.4% 2pm: Sept. FOMC Meeting Minutes DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap So tonight it’s my first ever “live” parents evening and then James Bond via Wagamama. Given my daughter (6) is the eldest in her year and the twins (4) the youngest (plus additional youth for being premature), I’m expecting my daughter to be at least above average but for my boys to only just about be vaguely aware of what’s going on around them. Poor things. For those reading yesterday, the Cameo video of Nadia Comanenci went down a storm, especially when she mentioned our kids’ names, but the fact that there was no birthday cake wasn’t as popular. So I played a very complicated, defence splitting 80 yard through ball but missed an open goal. Anyway ahead of Bond tonight, with all this inflation about I’m half expecting him to be known as 008 going forward. The next installment of the US prices saga will be seen today with US CPI at 13:30 London time. This is an important one, since it’s the last CPI number the Fed will have ahead of their next policy decision just 3 weeks from now, where investors are awaiting a potential announcement on tapering asset purchases. Interestingly the August reading last month was the first time so far this year that the month-on-month measure was actually beneath the consensus expectation on Bloomberg, with the +0.3% growth being the slowest since January. Famous last words but this report might not be the most interesting since it may be a bit backward looking given WTI oil is up c.7.5% in October alone. In addition, used cars were up +5.4% in September after falling in late summer. So given the 2-3 month lag for this to filter through into the CPI we won’t be getting the full picture today. I loved the fact from his speech last night that the Fed’s Bostic has introduced a “transitory” swear jar in his office. More on the Fedspeak later. In terms of what to expect this time around though, our US economists are forecasting month-on-month growth of +0.41% in the headline CPI, and +0.27% for core, which would take the year-on-year rates to +5.4% for headline and +4.1% for core. Ahead of this, inflation expectations softened late in the day as Fed officials were on the hawkish side. The US 10yr breakeven dropped -1.9bps to 2.49% after trading at 2.527% earlier in the session. This is still the 3rd highest closing level since May, and remains only 7bps off its post-2013 closing high. Earlier, inflation expectations continued to climb in Europe, where the 5y5y forward inflation swap hit a post-2015 high of 1.84%. Also on inflation, the New York Fed released their latest Survey of Consumer Expectations later in the European session, which showed that 1-year ahead inflation expectations were now at +5.3%, which is the highest level since the survey began in 2013, whilst 3-year ahead expectations were now at +4.2%, which was also a high for the series. The late rally in US breakevens, coupled with lower real yields (-1.6bps) meant that the 10yr Treasury yield ended the session down -3.5bps at 1.577% - their biggest one day drop in just over 3 weeks. There was a decent flattening of the yield curve, with the 2yr yield up +2.0bps to 0.34%, its highest level since the pandemic began as the market priced in more near-term Fed rate hikes. In the Euro Area it was a very different story however, with 10yr yields rising to their highest level in months, including among bunds (+3.5bps), OATs (+2.9bps) and BTPs (+1.0bps). That rise in the 10yr bund yield left it at -0.09%, taking it above its recent peak earlier this year to its highest closing level since May 2019. Interestingly gilts (-4.0bps) massively out-performed after having aggressively sold off for the last week or so. Against this backdrop, equity markets struggled for direction as they awaited the CPI reading and the start of the US Q3 earnings season today. By the close of trade, the S&P 500 (-0.24%) and the STOXX 600 (-0.07%) had both posted modest losses as they awaited the next catalyst. Defensive sectors were the outperformers on both sides of the Atlantic. Real estate (+1.34%) and utilities (+0.67%) were among the best performing US stocks, though some notable “reopening” industries outperformed as well including airlines (+0.83%), hotels & leisure (+0.51%). News came out after the US close regarding the global chip shortage, with Bloomberg reporting that Apple, who are one of the largest buyers of chips, would revise down their iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by 10 million units. Recent rumblings from chip producers suggest that the problems are expected to persist, which will make central bank decisions even more complicated over the coming weeks as they grapple with increasing supply-side constraints that push up inflation whilst threatening to undermine the recovery. Speaking of central bankers, Vice Chair Clarida echoed his previous remarks and other communications from the so-called “core” of the FOMC that the current bout of inflation would prove largely transitory and that underlying trend inflation was hovering close to 2%, while admitting that risks were tilted towards higher inflation. Atlanta Fed President Bostic took a much harder line though, noting that price pressures were expanding beyond the pandemic-impacted sectors, and measures of inflation expectations were creeping higher. Specifically, he said, “it is becoming increasingly clear that the feature of this episode that has animated price pressures — mainly the intense and widespread supply-chain disruptions — will not be brief.” His ‘transitory swear word jar’ for his office was considerably more full by the end of his speech. As highlighted above, while President Bostic spoke US 10yr breakevens dropped -2bps and then continued declining through the New York afternoon. In what is likely to be Clarida’s last consequential decision on monetary policy before his term expires, he noted it may soon be time to start a tapering program that ends in the middle of next year, in line with our US economics team’s call for a November taper announcement. In that vein, our US economists have updated their forecasts for rate hikes yesterday, and now see liftoff taking place in December 2022, followed by 3 rate increases in each of 2023 and 2024. That comes in light of supply disruptions lifting inflation, a likely rise in inflation expectations (which are sensitive to oil prices), and measures of labour market slack continuing to outperform. For those interested, you can read a more in-depth discussion of this here. Turning to commodities, yesterday saw a stabilisation in prices after the rapid gains on Monday, with WTI (+0.15%) and Brent Crude (-0.27%) oil prices seeing only modest movements either way, whilst iron ore prices in Singapore were down -3.45%. That said it wasn’t entirely bad news for the asset class, with Chinese coal futures (+4.45%) hitting fresh records, just as aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (+0.13%) eked out another gain to hit a new post-2008 high. Overnight in Asia, equity markets are seeing a mixed performance with the KOSPI (+1.24%) posting decent gains, whereas the CSI (-0.06%), Nikkei (-0.22%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.69%) have all lost ground. The KOSPI’s strength came about on the back of a decent jobs report, with South Korea adding +671k relative to a year earlier, the most since March 2014. The Hong Kong Exchange is closed however due to the impact of typhoon Kompasu. Separately, coal futures in China are up another +8.00% this morning, so no sign of those price pressures abating just yet following recent floods. Meanwhile, US equity futures are pointing to little change later on, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.12%. Here in Europe, we had some fresh Brexit headlines after the UK’s Brexit minister, David Frost, said that the Northern Ireland Protocol “is not working” and was not protecting the Good Friday Agreement. He said that he was sharing a new amended Protocol with the EU, which comes ahead of the release of the EU’s own proposals on the issue today. But Frost also said that “if we are going to get a solution we must, collectively, deliver significant change”, and that Article 16 which allows either side to take unilateral safeguard measures could be used “if necessary”. Elsewhere yesterday, the IMF marginally downgraded their global growth forecast for this year, now seeing +5.9% growth in 2021 (vs. +6.0% in July), whilst their 2022 forecast was maintained at +4.9%. This masked some serious differences between countries however, with the US downgraded to +6.0% in 2021 (vs. +7.0% in July), whereas Italy’s was upgraded to +5.8% (vs. +4.9% in July). On inflation they said that risks were skewed to the upside, and upgraded their forecasts for the advanced economies to +2.8% in 2021, and to +2.3% in 2022. Looking at yesterday’s data, US job openings declined in August for the first time this year, falling to 10.439m (vs. 10.954m expected). But the quits rate hit a record of 2.9%, well above its pre-Covid levels of 2.3-2.4%. Here in the UK, data showed the number of payroll employees rose by +207k in September, while the unemployment rate for the three months to August fell to 4.5%, in line with expectations. And in a further sign of supply-side issues, the number of job vacancies in the three months to September hit a record high of 1.102m. Separately in Germany, the ZEW survey results came in beneath expectations, with the current situation declining to 21.6 (vs. 28.0 expected), whilst expectations fell to 22.3 (vs. 23.5 expected), its lowest level since March 2020. To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the aforementioned US CPI reading for September, while today will also see the most recent FOMC meeting minutes released. Other data releases include UK GDP for August and Euro Area industrial production for August. Central bank speakers include BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe, the ECB’s Visco and the Fed’s Brainard. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock and Delta Air Lines. Tyler Durden Wed, 10/13/2021 - 08:13.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 13th, 2021

Merck is set to make billions off a COVID-19 pill that could change the pandemic. Here"s why some countries will pay more than others.

Merck's antiviral has not yet been authorized, but the company already has plans to distribute the coronavirus pills globally. Molnupiravir is an experimental oral antiviral developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics that could treat COVID-19. Merck Merck's COVID-19 pill holds tremendous promise in fighting the pandemic. Industry analysts expect Merck to make billions off the not-yet-authorized drug. Some countries will be paying $12 per pill, while the US agreed to pay $712 per treatment course. Merck is walking a tightrope with its COVID-19 pill, expecting to reap billions in revenue while still making the medicine affordable to the world.The pharmaceutical giant's antiviral program became the first pill to succeed in a late-stage study. The drug, called molnupiravir, halved the risk of hospitalization and death compared to a placebo for people with mild to moderate COVID-19 who are at high risk of severe illness.Merck now finds itself in a position to make molnupiravir one of its most profitable drugs, with industry analysts forecasting the company will make about $22 billion in revenue from the drug through 2030. At the same time, to be an effective tool in the pandemic, it'll have to work to make it accessible to the people who need it the most around the world.Global inequity has been a hallmark of the world's COVID-19 response. Moderna, for instance, has faced criticism that it has prioritized rich countries in making supply deals for its coronavirus vaccine. More than 50 countries and territories, mainly in Africa and the Middle East, have vaccinated less than 10% of their population as of the end of September. Merck hopes to make billions while not leaving behind the most vulnerable populations. While the US government is paying $712 per treatment course, Merck is allowing generic manufacturers to make its pill for lower-income markets, where they will likely charge a fraction of that cost. Merck has reached agreements with eight generic drug companies, allowing each of them to sell molnupiravir in more than 100 low- and middle-income countries. These generic companies will compete on price, with one report saying they are expected to charge about $12 to $15 per treatment course.Drug companies have enlisted generic manufacturers before with HIV and hepatitis C medicines, typically after public pressure. For its COVID-19 pill, Merck has set up these partnerships ahead of time, preemptively giving up the monopoly control of the drug that pharma companies so aggressively protect under normal circumstances. "We've been planning to put this strategy in place from the very beginning," Paul Schaper, Merck's executive director of global pharmaceutical public policy, told Insider. Even some drug-pricing advocates applaud Merck's strategy."Merck is among the better actors in the pandemic compared to other companies," said Jamie Love, head of the drug-access advocacy group Knowledge Ecology International. The US is paying $712 per patient for Merck's drug Joe Biden holds up a face mask at The Queen theater on October 28, 2020 in Wilmington, Delaware. Drew Angerer/Getty Images Merck is expected to reap billions from its new drug, fueled by supply deals with rich countries like the US.In June, the US government agreed to pay $1.2 billion in a supply deal for molnupiravir, if the drug wins an OK from the Food and Drug Administration. Merck declined to provide details on how that price was negotiated; the Department of Health and Human Services did not respond to Insider's request for comment on the price.Analysts expect molnupiravir to turn into a top-selling drug for Merck. The Bernstein analyst Ronny Gal projected in an October 6 research note that Merck will make $5.3 billion in 2022 sales for the drug, with about 80% of that coming from the US market. Gal forecasted $22 billion in total molnupiravir revenue for Merck through 2030.Investors appear to see that potential as well: Merck's stock price rose as much as 10% after the company announced the positive study results on October 1.The US is effectively paying about $712 per treatment course from the June deal. That price strikes some experts as too high, particularly given federal grant money that has been invested in the drug. The drug's early development was funded with $35 million in taxpayer grants, Axios reported."Unfortunately, in the US, we allow manufacturers to set whatever price they want, and as a result, we get situations like this," Dr. Aaron Kesselheim, a professor at Harvard Medical School said in an email, adding the government's negotiations factor into the public investment.But patients won't face that bill directly. The US government negotiated a supply deal for 1.7 million treatment courses, which will then be distributed to patients for free.Even at that price, molnupiravir is cheaper than other COVID-19 treatments. A pill is much simpler to produce than other medicines, given as IV infusions. The government is paying $2,100 per infusion of Regeneron's antibody cocktail and $3,200 for a five-day IV course of Gilead Sciences' antiviral remdesivir. The COVID-19 vaccines, on the other hand, are far cheaper, ranging from $10 to $40 per shot in the US.Merck hasn't set a commercial price for molnupiravir yet but said it will use different prices in countries by their income level.Even with access plan, some say Merck should do more Merck is researching molnupiravir as a potential antiviral treatment for COVID-19. Merck Advocates pointed out a few steps Merck could take that would improve access. Dzintars Gotham, an independent researcher and a physician at King's College Hospital, said it would be useful to know how much it costs Merck to produce the pills. That information can help countries negotiate fair prices, he said.Gotham and Melissa Barber, a doctoral candidate in population health sciences at Harvard University, released their own analysis, estimating it costs $17.74 to produce a course of molnupiravir.Merck declined to say how much it costs to make molnupiravir. Schaper said the marginal cost isn't the right question to ask on pricing, saying that doesn't consider the societal benefit of the drug.This lack of transparency is common in the drug industry, Gotham said. "A lot of drug pricing relies on very dramatic pricing asymmetry between the buyer and the seller," Gotham said, "which is a fancy term for the seller knowing a lot of information about what they could or couldn't afford in terms of pricing and the buyer not knowing much in terms of what's possible."Gotham and Love also both said they'd like to see Merck publicly release the contracts with generic suppliers. This would include information on the list of 105 included countries, how long the licenses last, and what royalties Merck receives from those sales."Licenses should be public," Gotham said. "I don't see a logical argument why they wouldn't be."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytOct 13th, 2021