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Bear of the Day: Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY)

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) faces a quickly changing consumer spending environment and rising inflation. Best Buy Co., Inc. BBY faces a quickly changing consumer spending environment and rising inflation. The broad-based economic tailwinds that helped Best Buy post back-to-back big years of impressive growth are coming to an end, as the housing market cools and people start spending less on big-ticket items. Pandemic-Style Shopping SlowsBest Buy sells smartphones, TVs, connected appliances, and nearly every other consumer electronics device under the sun. Best Buy has grown even though Target TGT, Walmart WMT, and other giants sell similar products. The company, like everyone else, has spent years improving its digital commerce offerings.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchBest Buy’s core business and its e-commerce efforts helped it thrive when people began to work from home and spent big on items to fill new homes. Best Buy also benefited from stimulus checks and pandemic rebound shopping sprees. And its long-term outlook remains intact. But consumers are shifting their spending to services and other areas of retail, while also slowing big purchases amid soaring inflation and recession fears.Best Buy’s sales climbed over 8% during 2020 (its FY21), with FY22 revenue up 9.5%. But the firm’s fourth quarter sales slipped over 3% and its first quarter FY23 revenue dipped 9% on the back changing spending habits and tough-to-compete against periods.The electronics retailer fell short of Zacks Q1 estimates on May 24. Best Buy management lowered its guidance, with its FY23 and FY24 consensus EPS estimates down 3.3% and 3.9%, respectively.Zacks estimates call for BBY’s revenue to slip over 5% this year, with its adjusted earnings projected to fall 13%. “Macro conditions worsened since we provided our guidance in early March… Those trends have continued into Q2 and, as a result, we are revising our sales and profitability expectations for the year,” CEO Corie Barry said in prepared remarks.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchBottom LineBest Buy’s downward earnings revisions help it land a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) right now. The company is also part of the Consumer Electronics industry which is in the bottom 3% of over 250 Zacks industries right now. BBY shares have tumbled 31% in 2022 to lag its industry and the broader retail market.Best Buy stock is still up 26% in the past five years to roughly match the Zacks Retail-Wholesale Market. And the fall has made its dividend yield stronger. Still, it might be best to stay away from Best Buy stock with consumer sentiment at historic lows and shoppers focused on other areas of retail, as well as services. Zacks' Top Picks to Cash in on Electric Vehicles Big money has already been made in the Electric Vehicle (EV) industry. But, the EV revolution has not hit full throttle yet. There is a lot of money to be made as the next push for future technologies ramps up. Zacks’ Special Report reveals 5 picks investorsSee 5 EV Stocks With Extreme Upside Potential >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Target Corporation (TGT): Free Stock Analysis Report Walmart Inc. (WMT): Free Stock Analysis Report Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJun 23rd, 2022

Recession Risks. Are They Already Priced In?

Recession Risks. Are They Already Priced In? Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Are recession risks fully “priced in” by the markets? Such was an interesting question asked recently by my colleague Albert Edwards at Societe Generale. To wit: “A US recession looks imminent and the discussion in the markets has moved on to how deep it will be. Forecasts for a ‘mild’ recession will now abound. But when a key Fed economic model sees an 80% chance of a hard landing, you know things are bad! And I’ve read with increasing regularity that equities have fallen so quickly, well ahead of profits, that ‘equities have already factored in a recession.’ Another alarm bell just rang! As noted recently, the NFIB Small Business Survey is already signaling a recession is likely. To wit: “We again see many of the early warning signs of an economic downturn. While such doesn’t guarantee a recession, it does suggest the risks of an economic downturn are markedly higher. As noted above, in 2007, the market warned of a recession 14-months in advance of the recognition. In 2019, it was just 5-months.” Notably, a broad range of data suggests recession risks in the U.S. are mounting. Our Economic Composite Index, which comprises more than 100 different economic data points, also warns of recession risks. The chart below compares the index to the 6-month percentage change in the Leading Economic Index. As Mr. Edwards concludes: “The leading indicators look grim as well. For example, the Conference Board’s leading indicator fell for the third month in a row in May and that now makes 4 declines in the last 5 months. That is normally the stuff of recession.” The 6-month percentage change (the Conference Board says is the best predictor of recessions) is already warning of a recession. But have stocks already discounted those recession risks? Have Stocks Priced In Recession Risks Stocks currently remain under selling pressure due to a variety of issues causing a repricing of valuations; Surging inflation Aggressive Fed rate hikes Reduction, or tapering, of the Fed’s balance sheet Lack of stimulus support from the Government Rising inventories Weakening retail sales Declining real disposable incomes High gas and food prices weighing on consumption As noted recently in “Earnings Recession,” as the Fed hikes rates to slow economic growth, they risk pushing the economy into a contraction. With consumers dependent on low rates to support economic growth via debt, the risk of a policy mistake remains elevated. Since earnings remain highly correlated to economic growth, earnings don’t survive rate hikes. As the arrows show, Fed rate increases lead to earnings recessions. Not surprisingly, our composite economic index also suggests earnings have further to fall. Despite the year-to-date asset price decline, recession risks are unlikely to be fully accounted for. During the previous four recessions and subsequent bear markets, the typical revision to consensus EPS estimates ranged from -6% to -18%, with a median of 10%. So far, those estimates have not fallen nearly enough. “The problem with (current) lower P/E ratios is that while the ‘P’ has moved, the ‘E’ is on thin ice, and the cracks are starting to show.” – Albert Edwards As he notes, while forward P/E ratios have declined, much of that is due to the decline in the “P” and not the “E.” Therefore, if an earnings recession is coming, as the data suggests, then the current “bear market” cycle still has more work to do as earnings decline. The realignment of market prices and valuations is always a brutal process. Most likely, we are just starting the negative revision phase, which makes risk management in portfolios a key priority for now. Investing In A Recession Investing during a recession can be dangerous, particularly when elevated valuations are present across all asset classes. However, you can take some steps to ensure increased volatility is survivable. Have excess emergency savings so you are not “forced” to sell during a decline to meet obligations. Extend your time horizon to 5-7 years as buying distressed stocks can get more distressed. Don’t obsessively check your portfolio. Consider tax-loss harvesting (selling stocks at a loss) to offset those losses against future gains. Stick to your investing discipline regardless of what happens. Once prepared, what investments do well in a recession? “A recession is a good time to avoid speculating, especially on stocks that have taken the worst beating. Weaker companies often go bankrupt during recessions, and while stocks that have fallen by 80%, 90%, or even more might seem like bargains, they are usually cheap for a reason. Just remember - a broken business at an excellent price is still a broken business.” – Motley Fool In other words, chasing what worked previously will likely not be the right choice. More importantly, in a slower-growing economy in the future, fundamentals will become more critical. Therefore, to make money in a recession, focus on companies that: Have consistent earnings growth over time. Are dividend-payers and avoid high leverage. Have free cash flow and strong operating margins. Avoid companies dependent on consumer spending, high cash burn rates, or negative incomes. Invest incrementally using lower prices to build positions. Lastly, don’t forget about bonds that offer a haven during volatile market environments. While the media tries to pick the next market bottom, it is better to let the market show you. You will be late, but you will have confirmation the selling is over. But, if I am correct, we have more work to do first. Tyler Durden Sat, 07/02/2022 - 13:30.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge11 hr. 16 min. ago

Lawrence A. Cunningham"s Quality Investing: Here’s how a company can really boost shareholder value and its growth rate — especially in a bear market

When a business caters to customers and rewards employees, everybody wins -- including stockholders.   .....»»

Category: topSource: marketwatch11 hr. 16 min. ago

Anatomy Of A Bear Market: Even The Fed Can"t Rescue Market If Earnings Tank

Anatomy Of A Bear Market: Even The Fed Can't Rescue Market If Earnings Tank By Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research If you were trading/investing from 2000 – 2002, today’s stock market action likely gave you a sense of déjà vu. It certainly did for us. The current bear market has taken as much out of the S&P 500 in 6 months as was the case in the first 12 months during the early 2000’s downturn. Also, recall that the Fed shifted to an aggressive easing stance in early 2001 and that did nothing to end the bear market because of uncertainty around corporate earnings, which fell by 32 pct. Bottom line: bear markets always end, but we remain cautious/defensive. * * * This week's disappointing equity price action got us thinking once again about the 2000 – 2002 bear market, and that is the subject of today’s “Markets” section. To be clear, we are not predicting US equities will lose half their value from the early January 2022 highs, as they did from peak to trough in the early 2000s. The point here is to understand the contours and narratives of a lengthy bear market, and for that there is no better case study in the modern era than 2000 – 2002. There is a chart at the end of this section with a comparison of the S&P 500’s price action from the March 2000 highs to the lows in October 2002 and the index’s price performance from the early January 2022 highs to today. Here are 4 points we see in that data: #1: US large caps have declined much more quickly in 2022 than at the start of the early 2000s bear market: At this point in 2000 (day 122 of that bear market), the S&P was only off 4 percent from its March highs. As of today’s close, the index is off 20.3 percent from its January 2022 highs of 4,797. If you were trading or investing in markets back in 2000, you know the reason for this difference: back then, it was the NASDAQ that first fell dramatically from its March 2000 highs. Investors cycled into more traditional names to play defense against the rout in tech shares. That put a temporary bid under the S&P 500. Some of the same thing happened earlier this year, but its effect only lasted through Q1. The S&P ended the first quarter only down 5.6 percent on the year. Since then the selloff has been much more widespread, as would be the case later in the 2000 – 2002 bear market. Takeaway: the S&P 500 of 2022 is running the 2000 – 2002 bear market playbook at an accelerated rate. It took the index a year to drop by 20 percent in 2000 – 2001, and we’ve done that in 6 months this time now. A combination of geopolitical issues and their effect on oil prices as well as Fed rate policy are the central reasons for this more precipitous decline. #2: The 2000 – 2002 bear market had its start as the result of Federal Reserve monetary policy, but even when the Fed shifted its stance stocks continued to drop: The Fed had been increasing interest rates since June 1999 by 25 basis points at 2 meetings that year and at the first 2 meetings in 2000. It then bumped rates by 50 basis points at the May 16th, 2000 meeting. This was the last rate hike of that tightening cycle. Starting in early January 2001, the Fed began cutting rates aggressively. There was an unscheduled (“emergency”) rate cut on January 3rd of 50 basis points, followed by another 50 bp reduction at the regularly scheduled January 31st meeting. The FOMC then went on to reduce rates by 50 basis points again at the March and May meetings, with another emergency cut on April 18th as well. The second half of 2001 saw the Fed cut interest rates at every regularly scheduled meeting by 25 basis points, except for the October meeting where it reduced rates by 50 basis points. This was a follow-on step after the emergency cut of 50 bp on September 17th, just after the 9-11 terror attacks. The last rate cut of the 2000 – 2002 bear market came on November 6th, 2002, another 50 basis points. From May 2000 to November 2002, Fed Funds went from 6.5 percent to 1.25 percent. Takeaway: the lesson for today is that a change in Fed policy alone is no guaranty of a stock market rally. Even as the Federal Reserve was busy reducing interest rates through the first 8 months of 2001, the S&P 500 fell by 14.1 percent. Moreover, 10-year Treasury yields fell throughout the entire 2000 – 2002 bear market. They peaked at 6.8 percent in January 2000 and troughed in October 2002 at 3.6 percent. As with Fed monetary policy, that was not enough to support equity valuations. #3: Corporate earnings declined from 2000 – 2001 because of the March – November 2001 recession, and the bear market lows came AFTER the lows for earnings power: S&P 500 earnings power on a quarterly basis peaked in Q2 2000 at $14.88/share, just after the March 2000 highs. Quarterly earnings bottomed at $9.02/share in Q2 2001, 39 percent lower than the prior year peak. Earnings had already recovered to $11.61/share in Q3 2002, 28 percent off the lows, before the S&P 500 made its bottom in October of that year. Annualized S&P earnings power fell by 32 percent from peak to trough during 2000 – 2002, on the low side of the typical 25 – 50 percent decline in earnings power typical during a recession. Takeaway: 2002 was a rare case when stocks ignored a very visible increase in earnings power after a recession since geopolitical risk remained an overhang in the year after the 9-11 terror attacks. As much as earnings drive stock prices, geopolitics – especially those centered on the Middle East and tied to oil-producing states – can trump those over long enough periods to matter to investors. The October 2002 lows occurred the same week as Congress’ approval for military action against Iraq, an odd catalyst for a bear market low, but it did have the effect of removing any uncertainty about the future course of American foreign policy. One secondary issue worth noting is that investors were growing concerned about a “double dip” recession in 2002. #4: Wrapping up with 3 lessons for today’s market: The chart below shows what investors are coming to realize about the 2022 bear market: short term rallies can and do occur. They can seem like turning points, even when they are not. Let’s be careful with the idea that a change in Fed monetary policy alone can mark a turning point for the direction of stocks. This was certainly not the case in 2001 because of rising uncertainty related to corporate earnings as recession took hold. Such is the case again now, with S&P earnings near their peak at present ($55/share) but there is little visibility about where they go in the second half of the year and into 2023 if Fed policy has the desired effect of cooling the US economy. A confluence of events created the 2000 – 2002 bear market, and we are experiencing similar issues in 2022 at an accelerated pace and without the chance of any near-term support from the Federal Reserve. The logical response to that setup is to invest defensively and bide one’s time until there is more clarity. Tyler Durden Sat, 07/02/2022 - 10:30.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge13 hr. 4 min. ago

A bear market in stocks has historically signaled a peak in inflation - but that doesn"t mean the pain is over for investors, says a Wall Street investment chief

"The negative wealth effect certainly exists, and it is a powerful thing," The Leuthold Group's Doug Ramsey said. A trader works during the Fed rate announcement on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 20, 2019.Reuters/Brendan McDermidThe ongoing bear market in stocks is likely to do a better job at taming inflation than the Federal Reserve. But that doesn't mean the sell-off in stocks will be finished, according to Doug Ramsey of The Leuthold Group."For months on end, we've catalogued the list of economic and market developments that are screaming late cycle," he said.Investors have been waiting for high inflation readings to moderate for months on end, and now the ongoing bear market is likely to deliver that outcome.That's according to The Leuthold Group's chief investment officer Doug Ramsey, who said in a note last week that 20% price declines in the S&P 500 usually "unleashed a powerful, disinflationary impulse."That's because the wealth effect — or the idea that consumers feel wealthier when they see their investment portfolios rise — spurs them to spend more money on goods and services and help grow the economy. The exact opposite happens when stock prices decline by a considerable amount."The negative wealth effect certainly exists, and it is a powerful thing," Ramsey said. The S&P 500 has shed more than $9 trillion in market value during the current bear market, while crypto markets erased $2 trillion in value, so it's hard to see that not impacting the sentiment and spending habits of consumers.Falling prices are already showing up in certain commodities, with lumber, copper, wheat, cotton, and natural gas in significant bear markets, even oil prices are down about 12% over the past month.While falling prices would be welcomed by both investors and the Federal Reserve as it could point to fewer interest rate hikes going forward, it doesn't mean pain in the stock market is over, according to Ramsey. That's because falling prices signal the likelihood of an economic recession is even higher."The action that troubles us the most is the setback in the CRB Raw industrials Index, because we think it is about as close as one can get to a daily version of the ISM Manufacturing Survey," he said.The ISM Manufacturing Index is a monthly economic indicator that measures new orders, production, employment, deliveries, and inventories of more than 300 manufacturing firms. In other words, a decline in commodity prices suggests a decline in economic activity, which could mean a further decline in stock prices is possible if a recession materializes. And while commodity prices have been falling, initial unemployment claims have been on the rise in recent weeks, suggesting that the job market could be getting weaker."If inflation were contained and the unemployment rate was still, say, near 5%, the [Boom-Bust] Barometer's weakness might be consistent with a mid-cycle slowdown. But for months on end, we've catalogued the list of economic and market developments that are screaming late cycle," Ramsey said. The unemployment rate currently sits at 3.6%, so there is room for that to swing higher before the economic scenario becomes dire. But the activity is definitely starting to weaken, and the US economy is technically already in a recession if the Fed's GDPNow forecast for second-quarter GDP growth proves accurate."In sum, the bear market in stocks seems to be delivering the disinflationary blow it usually does. Yet there's another economic event that bear markets have been good at forecasting — and the evidence is trending in that direction, too," Ramsey concluded.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider15 hr. 4 min. ago

5 Best-Performing Inverse ETFs of a Brutal June

June was marked with rounds of steep selling for U.S. stocks that resulted in huge demand for inverse or inverse-leveraged ETFs. June was marked with rounds of steep selling for U.S. stocks as concerns over heightened inflation and the prospects of a recession weighed heavily on investors’ risk appetite. Notably, the S&P 500 Index slipped into the bear market in mid-month and was unable to rebound to end the month.  This has resulted in huge demand for inverse or inverse-leveraged ETFs as these fetch outsized returns on bearish sentiments in a short span. Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares SOXS, MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index -3X Inverse Leveraged ETN NRGD, MicroSectors Gold Miners -3X Inverse Leveraged ETN GDXD, ETFMG Prime 2x Daily Inverse Junior Silver Miners ETF SINV and Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X Shares HIBS might continue their strong performance if sentiments remain the same.Inverse and inverse-leveraged ETFs either create an inverse short position or a leveraged inverse short position in the underlying index through the use of swaps, options, futures contracts and other financial instruments. Due to their compounding effect, investors can enjoy higher returns in a very short time, provided the trend prevails.The S&P 500 wrapped up its worst month in decades, plunging about 8.4% in June. The sell-off aggravated when the Fed raised interest rates by 75 bps last month — the biggest increase since 1994 — and signaled continued tightening ahead, which could further weigh on stocks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that another hike of 50 or 75 bps at the next meeting in July is likely. An increase in interest rates means higher loan rates for consumers and businesses, including mortgages, credit cards and auto loans that will likely cut consumer spending and hurt economic growth (read: TTop & Flop Zones of First Half 2022 and Their ETF).Additionally, rounds of data suggest a slowdown in economic activity in the key sectors. Mortgage rates reached their highest levels in more than 13 years, while retail sales registered a bigger-than-expected drop in May as record gasoline prices prompted households to cut back on spending. Consumer confidence also dropped in June to the lowest in more than a year.As the global economy is struggling with skyrocketing inflation and low growth, the World Bank has warned of a recession. The war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions, and the risk of stagflation are curtailing growth.Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares (SOXS) – Up 64.7%Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares targets the semiconductor corner of the technology sector with three times inverse leveraged exposure to the ICE Semiconductor Index.Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares has amassed about $246.4 million in its asset base while charging 95 bps in fees per year. Volume is good as it exchanges 66.7 million shares per day on average.MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index -3X Inverse Leveraged ETN (NRGD) – Up 62.8%MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index -3X Inverse Leveraged ETN offers three times inverse exposure to the Solactive MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index, which is equal-dollar weighted and provides exposure to the 10 largest U.S. energy and oil companies (read: Energy ETFs Scaling 52-Week Highs: Will This Continue?).MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index -3X Inverse Leveraged ETN has accumulated $74.9 million in its asset base. It charges 95 bps in annual fees and trades in an average daily volume of about 228,000 shares.MicroSectors Gold Miners -3X Inverse Leveraged ETN (GDXD) – Up 54.2%MicroSectors Gold Miners -3X Inverse Leveraged ETN seeks to offer three times inverse leveraged exposure to the S-Network MicroSectors Gold Miners Index.MicroSectors Gold Miners -3X Inverse Leveraged ETN has accumulated $16.4 million in its asset base and trades in an average daily volume of 108,000 shares. It charges 95 bps in annual fees.ETFMG Prime 2x Daily Inverse Junior Silver Miners ETF (SINV) – Up 51%ETFMG Prime 2x Daily Inverse Junior Silver Miners ETF creates two times inverse exposure to the Prime Junior Silver Miners and Explorers Index, which offers exposure to the silver mining exploration and production industry. It charges investors an annual fee of 95 bps and has accumulated $0.1 million in its asset base since its debut in June last year.Volume is meager as it exchanges about 13,000 shares in hand per day on average.Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X Shares (HIBS) – Up 44.2%Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X Shares offers three times inverse exposure to the performance of the S&P 500 High Beta Index. It has gathered $51.7 million in AUM and trades in an average daily volume 1 million shares.Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X Shares charges 95 bps in fees per year from investors.Bottom LineWhile the strategy is highly beneficial for short-term traders, it could lead to huge losses compared with traditional funds in fluctuating or seesawing markets. Further, their performances could vary significantly from the actual performance of their underlying index over a longer period compared to a shorter period (such as weeks or months) due to their compounding effect (see: all the Inverse Equity ETFs here).Still, for ETF investors bearish on equities for the near term, either of the above products could make an interesting choice. Clearly, these could be intriguing for those with a high-risk tolerance and a belief that the “trend is the friend” in this specific corner of the investing world. Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week.Get it free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (SOXS): ETF Research Reports MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index 3X Inverse Leveraged ETN (NRGD): ETF Research Reports Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X Shares (HIBS): ETF Research Reports MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X Inverse Leveraged ETNs (GDXD): ETF Research Reports ETFMG Prime 2x Daily Inverse Junior Silver Miners ETF (SINV): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJul 1st, 2022

Best Fixed-Income ETFs of 1H22

Some interest-protected bonds have managed to fare better than the regular bond ETFs in the first half of 2022. Rising rate worries are gripping the whole world, crippling the investing scenario again with uncertainty. Volatility may become the name of the game thanks to a host of factors ranging from rising inflation in the United States and other parts of the developed world, fears of a slowdown in China and the resultant pressure on supply chain and global growth, and geopolitical issues.As rising rate worries have been prevalent with the Fed hiking rates faster this year, both bond and stock investing is bearing the brunt. The Fed enacted a 75-bp rate hike late last week. The rise in rate was the biggest since 1994. The outcome is a slowdown in economic growth. In total, the Fed has enacted a 150-bp rate hike so far this year.The inflation projection has been upped for this year, while the Fed expects inflation to cool off in 2023 and 2024. The federal funds rate is projected to be 3.4% for 2022 from 1.9% in March, 3.8% for 2023 from 2.8% and 3.4% for 2024 from 2.8%. No wonder, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have entered into a bear market this year.Since rates and bond prices are inversely related, bond ETFs have fallen this year. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT is off 24% in 2022, while iShares Short-Term Treasury Bond ETF SHV is off just 0.3%. Still, some interest-protected bonds have managed to fare better than the regular bond ETFs. Against this backdrop, below, we highlight a few fixed-income ETFs that have gained this year.ETFs in FocusFolioBeyond Rising Rates ETF RISR – Up 31.2%RISR invests primarily in interest-only mortgage-backed securities (MBS IOs) and U.S. Treasury bonds.WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund USFR – Up 0.5%The underlying Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Floating Rate Bond Index is a rules-based, market value-weighted index engineered to measure the performance of floating rate US Treasury bonds.iShares Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF (TFLO) – Up 0.4%The underlying Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Floating Rate Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that measures the performance of floating rate public obligations of the U.S. Treasury.ClearShares Ultra-Short Maturity ETF OPER – Up 0.2%The ClearShares Ultra-Short Maturity ETF is an actively managed portfolio seeking current income by investing in repurchase repo agreements, collateralized by U.S. Government Securities and other fixed-income instruments.iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF SGOV – Up 0.2%The underlying ICE 0-3 Month US Treasury Securities Index comprises of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities less than or equal to three months.iShares iBonds 2022 Term High Yield & Income ETF IBHB – Up 0.1%The underlying Bloomberg 2022 Term High Yield and Income Index comprises U.S. dollar-denominated, high-yield and other income-generating corporate bonds maturing in 2022 (read: Time for Cash-Like ETFs?).SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF BIL – Up 0.1%The underlying Bloomberg 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index includes all publicly issued zero-coupon U.S. Treasury Bills that have a remaining maturity of less than 3 months and more than 1 month, are rated investment grade, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value.Invesco VRDO Tax-Free ETF PVI – Up 0.06%The underlying ICE US Municipal AMT-Free VRDO Constrained Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar tax-exempt VRDOs that are publicly issued by U.S. states and territories, and their political subdivisions, and that have interest rates that reset daily, weekly or monthly. Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week.Get it free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): ETF Research Reports iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV): ETF Research Reports Invesco VRDO TaxFree ETF (PVI): ETF Research Reports SPDR Bloomberg 13 Month TBill ETF (BIL): ETF Research Reports WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury ETF (USFR): ETF Research Reports ClearShares UltraShort Maturity ETF (OPER): ETF Research Reports iShares iBonds 2022 Term High Yield and Income ETF (IBHB): ETF Research Reports iShares 03 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV): ETF Research Reports FolioBeyond Rising Rates ETF (RISR): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJul 1st, 2022

How To Trade The Current Bear, And Plan For The Coming Bull

The best part about bear markets are the spectacular rallies that follow. Now is the time to start nibbling on your favorite stocks at bargain prices. Kevin Matras will keep you engaged and ready for the inevitable rebound. It’s been a rough year so far.In fact, we just ended the worst first half in more than 50 years, with the S&P falling by nearly -21%, making it the worst start since 1970.That time was also a period of high inflation like we’re experiencing now.Interestingly, the second half of that year saw the S&P up 27%.Of course, that does not mean that’s how it will go for the back half of 2022. But it doesn’t mean it won’t either.True, since 1957, negative first half performances had just as much of a chance for a negative back half performance as it did a positive one.But that being said, it’s important to look at where we are and what could be coming down the pike.The S&P officially entered bear market territory 3 weeks ago when it closed below the -20% threshold from its all-time high close made earlier this year.They joined the Nasdaq, which entered bear market territory in March.The Dow, so far, has technically avoided a bear market, but only by a couple of percentage points when the markets were at their lows.In spite of having the strongest labor market in decades (unemployment is near a 50-year low, while there’s literally millions more jobs available than there are unemployed people to fill them), inflation, and what that means for interest rates and the economy, has been weighing on the market.With inflation currently at 41-year highs, the fear is that the Fed will raise rates too high and too fast and send us into a recession.That remains to be seen.But the market has so far concluded that we will indeed see a recession.In fact, given the steep decline, it appeared the market was pricing in a worst-case scenario (hard recession vs. a soft or shallow one). Or at least that’s what it looked like, until the market rallied sharply off its lows the other week.That begs the question, what if the worst-case scenario doesn’t unfold?In that case, the economy and stocks could soar. And the pullback we’ve seen could be presenting an enormous opportunity. Especially with valuations now at the lowest levels in more than two years.Moreover, the Fed is forecasting full-year GDP to come in at 1.7% this year, and 1.7% again next year.And St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, in a recent interview, said he sees a “pretty good second half,” driven by “strong consumption this year.”So the Fed is looking for growth. A far cry from the worst-case scenario that the market has been pricing in.More . . .------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Alert: Buy These Ultimate Four Stocks ASAPThere's still time to get in early. These aren't just 4 promising stocks. They were handpicked from hundreds of strong companies by Zacks' experts because they present the greatest upside for Q3:Stock #1: Earnings soared +128.45 in 90 Days. Closing Acquisition in Market’s Hottest SectorStock #2: Agribusiness Giant Addresses Global Food Shortage and Rides Surging PricesStock #3: Small-Cap Shipper Is a Compelling Play as Europe Moves Away from Russian Natural GasStock #4: Record Sales Growth for Automotive Supplier as People Fix Cars Rather Than Buy New OnesDeadline to download our just-released Ultimate Four Special Report is Monday, July 4th.See Our “Ultimate” Stocks Now >>------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------For Perspective The average bear market decline for the S&P (going back 100+ years), is about -38%. With the S&P down by -23.6% at its worst, we got more than 61% there.Then again, over the last 13 bear markets during that time, there’s been a fair share (5 of them) that were down ‘only’ in the mid-25ish percent range (-21.5% to -29.7%).It should also be known that the faster a bear market begins, the shallower it tends to be.Regardless, no bear market is fun while it’s happening.But it’s worth noting (going back to the 1950’s), that the median returns for the market once a bear market has begun is nearly 3% one month later, more than 5% three months later, and more than 23% a year later.And the rallies that follow after a bear market has ended are even bigger.And given the strength of the economy going into this, it’s all the more likely that we’ll bounce back big and in record time.Trading The Bear  Just like stocks need to fall by -20% for a bull market to end and a bear market to begin, they also need to go up by 20% for a bear market to end and a bull market to begin.For the S&P, it needs to close at or above 4,400.12 for a new bull market to begin.And for the Nasdaq, it’s 12,775.32.Set yourself an alert. When we close above those levels, the bear market will officially be over and a new bull market will have begun.But that doesn’t mean you have to wait to start nibbling at your favorite stocks and their discount bargain prices.Some may go lower. And some may not. But they are likely much lower now than where they were just a few months ago, or even years ago. And much closer to the bottom (if they haven’t already hit it).That’s true for your favorite stocks. As well as plenty of new stocks that you probably haven’t even heard of yet.This pullback will usher in lots of new and exciting opportunities in the inevitable bull market that follows.It always does.So now is the time to start putting your list of dream stocks together. And staying engaged so you can discover what new stocks will lead the market when it goes back up.Riding The Bull  The big gains that follow a bear market can be quite spectacular.But since a large part of any bull market recovery typically comes at the very beginning, it’s imperative that you stay in the market.The trick is to get into the right stocks.There’s nothing wrong with raising cash by getting out of your laggards and poorest performers – stocks you know you should have gotten out of long before this pullback even happened. Or getting rid of those stocks that will have an uphill battle recovering even when this is over.But then make sure to replace them with the strongest stocks that will be the new market leaders.The point is, you want to be building your dream portfolio now, near the bottom.And by the time the new bull market is underway, you’ll be all in with the strongest stocks, and beating the market.Proven Profitable Strategies Picking the best stocks is a lot easier when you focus on proven, profitable strategies to do it.And by concentrating on what has proven to work in the past, you’ll have a better idea as to what your probability of success will be now and in the future.For example, did you know that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy have beaten the market in 28 of the last 34 years with an average annual return of 25% per year? That's more than 2 x the S&P with an annual win ratio of more than 82%.That includes 3 bear markets and 4 recessions.And did you know that stocks in the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries outperform those in the bottom 50% by a factor of 2 to 1? There's a reason why they say that half of a stock's price movement can be attributed to the group that it's in. Because it's true!Those two things will give any investor a huge probability of success and put you well on your way to beating the market.But you’re not there yet, as those two items alone will only narrow down a field of 10,000 stocks to the top 100 or so. Way too many to trade at once.So the next step is to get that list down to the best 5-10 stocks that you can buy.Stock Picking Secrets of the Pros One of the best ways to begin picking better stocks is to see what the pros are doing – the pros who use these methods to select the best stocks to buy.Whether you’re a growth investor, or a value investor, prefer fast-paced momentum stocks, or mature dividend-paying income stocks, there are certain rules the experts follow to maximize their gains.This applies to large-caps and small-caps, biotech and high-tech, ETFs, stocks under $10, stocks about to surprise, even options, and everything in between.Regardless of which one fits your personal style of trade, just be sure you’re following proven profitable methods that work, from experts who have demonstrated their ability to beat the market.The best part about these strategies is that all of the hard work is done for you. There’s no guesswork involved. Just follow the experts and start getting into better stocks on your very next trade.The Easiest, Fastest Way To Get Started Download our just-released Ultimate Four Special Report.It names and explains 4 stocks with strong fundamentals that are hand-picked by our experts to have the biggest upsides for Q3.And despite inflation there couldn’t be a better time to get aboard because stocks are substantially undervalued as the U.S. economy holds strong. Pent-up consumer demand continues to unleash, household income is high, corporate earnings are thriving, and the job market is booming.In particular, these 4 stocks are riding trends that could prove very lucrative for investors . . .  Stock #1: Looking for a powerhouse in energy, the market’s best-performing sector? This one is a rare combo of growth and value. Recently, earnings soared +128.4% in just 90 days! They’re closing a major acquisition in Q3, so don’t wait.Stock #2: Our agribusiness pick is already riding surging food prices. With war causing food shortages, it earned billions more in net sales last quarter. And that looks to be only the beginning for this consistent EPS estimate beater.Stock #3: Out of 63 shipping stocks, this small-cap looks to be the hottest play on Europe moving away from Russian natural gas. Its low valuation and soaring earnings estimates are compelling for investors.Stock #4: This automotive supplier could soar on the trend of fixing up cars instead of buying new ones. Improving margins and record sales growth are reasons to snap up shares right now.Previous Ultimate Four stocks have had wow returns. For example, NVIDIA jumped +51.4% in one quarter and went on to skyrocket +361.5% over the next 2 years.¹So don’t miss this chance to get in early on our latest Ultimate Four. We’re limiting the number of people who share that Special Report.There’s a hard deadline - the opportunity to download it ends midnight Monday, July 4th.See our Ultimate Four stocks right now >>Thanks and good trading,KevinKevin Matras serves as Executive Vice President of Zacks.com and is responsible for all of its leading products for individual investors. He invites you to download Zacks’ newly released Ultimate Four Special Report.¹ The results listed above are not (or may not be) representative of the performance of all selections made by Zacks Investment Research's newsletter editors and may represent the partial close of a position.  Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJul 1st, 2022

Supreme Court Follows Concealed Carry Decision With Pro-2A Rulings In 4 States

Supreme Court Follows Concealed Carry Decision With Pro-2A Rulings In 4 States Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The Supreme Court followed up its June 23 landmark ruling that for the first time recognized a constitutional right to carry firearms in public for self-defense, by issuing a series of rulings June 30 reversing federal appeals court decisions that upheld gun restrictions in California, New Jersey, Maryland, and Hawaii. The Supreme Court in Washington on Sept. 21, 2020. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times) Courts will find it difficult to uphold the firearms laws in question after the high court’s June 30 and June 23 rulings. In unsigned orders, all four cases were remanded June 30 to lower courts “for further consideration in light of” the Supreme Court’s June 23 decision in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen. In that 6–3 ruling, the high court invalidated New York state’s tough concealed-carry gun permitting system. Lisa Caso sells guns at Caso’s Gun-A-Rama store in Jersey City, N.J., on March 25, 2021. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images) The Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution states: “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.” The Supreme Court has been strengthening Second Amendment protections in recent years. In District of Columbia v. Heller (2008), the Supreme Court held the amendment protects “the individual right to possess and carry weapons in case of confrontation,” and in McDonald v. City of Chicago (2010), that this right “is fully applicable to the States.” It makes no sense to recognize Americans’ right to defend themselves in their homes while denying them the ability to defend themselves outside their homes, Justice Clarence Thomas wrote June 23 in the court’s majority opinion. “After all, the Second Amendment guarantees an ‘individual right to possess and carry weapons in case of confrontation,’ and confrontation can surely take place outside the home. … Many Americans hazard greater danger outside the home than in it,” Thomas wrote. In the new orders, the Supreme Court summarily disposed of the four pending cases, simultaneously granting appellants’ petitions seeking review while skipping over the oral argument phase. Some lawyers call this process GVR, standing for grant, vacate, and remand. In the Maryland case, Bianchi v. Frosh, court file 21-902, a coalition of 25 states led by Arizona challenged Maryland’s Firearms Safety Act of 2013. The statute, which was upheld by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit in September 2021, required pistol purchasers to seek a license, complete safety training, and be fingerprinted. Maryland bans popular weapons such as the AR-15 and similar rifles and limits magazine capacity to 10 rounds. Maryland Attorney General Brian Frosh, a Democrat, was defiant after the remand order. Military-style firearms “pose grave risks to public safety, as recent mass shootings in other states have made clear,” Frosh stated. Despite the Bruen ruling, the state’s law remains in effect, he said. “Marylanders have a right to be protected from these dangerous weapons.”’ Read more here... Tyler Durden Fri, 07/01/2022 - 21:30.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJul 1st, 2022

European Inflation Jumps While China PMI Improves

(Friday Market Open) Stock futures opened slightly lower after a historically bad first half and second quarter ahead of the long Independence Day weekend. Next week, it’s on to June unemployment and the latest signals on earnings season. Potential Market Movers With ISM Manufacturing PMI expected after the opening bell, investors opened the third quarter with a mild premarket sell-off as inflation and rate-hike concerns continue. After finishing its worst first half since 1970, S&P 500 futures were down 0.27% just before the market open, Dow Jones futures lost 0.31%, and Nasdaq futures moved 0.34% lower. European markets suffered after the euro area’s annual inflation rose to a new record high of 8.6% for June, above May’s 8.1% increase and ahead of an 8.4% forecast. It’s likely to fuel the European Central Bank’s first rate hike in 11 years later this month. All major European indexes were lower at midday. Oil prices shot up before the open, with WTI crude oil gaining 2.496% to $108.37 per barrel. Out of China, there was some good news this morning with the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI climbing to 51.7 in June from 48.1 in May, topping market forecasts of 50.1. The latest number was the first factory activity expansion since February and the fastest pace since May 2021 as COVID-19 lockdown and control measures ease in Asia. The 10-year Treasury yield remained under 3% before the open, while the Cboe Market Volatility Index (VIX) stayed just above 28 premarket. Among today’s premarket movers in equities: GM (NYSE: GM) was up 0.25% in premarket trading after reaffirming guidance but adding that chip shortages are affecting customer deliveries. Kohl’s (NYSE: KSS) lost nearly 18% before the open after confirming reports that it ended discussions to be bought by Franchise Group (FRG). The Milwaukee-area retailer indicated fast-weakening retail conditions precluded the deal and added that it cut its quarterly outlook accordingly. Micron (NASDAQ: MU) lost 4.6% after reporting a better-than-consensus profit but a lower-than-expected sales outlook to weakening demand for semiconductor products. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) lost 0.98% after J.P. Morgan Securities gave the computer giant an overweight rating on its stock, which placed a December price target of $200 on the company. Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) lost 0.64% after the company cut hiring plans and CEO Mark Zuckerberg told employees in a meeting covered by Reuters that the economy is facing “one of the worst downturns we’ve seen in recent history.” Reviewing the Market Minutes As expected, the S&P 500 (SPX) secured its worst first-half sell-off in more than 50 years by Thursday’s close, but investors seemed more focused on how incoming slowing consumer and business spending data and global economic news might drive markets and the upcoming Q2 earnings season in July. Yesterday, the S&P’s broad index finished the stressful month of June still in a bear market and down nearly 21% from its all-time high in January. Finishing at 3,785.38, the SPX lost 0.88% during the session. For the three months, the index fell more ...Full story available on Benzinga.com.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaJul 1st, 2022

Kraken Hunts For Lion’s Share Of Crypto Job Market

Kraken has posted over 600 new job ads in the United States in the last seven days, accounting for almost one in five of all new crypto job ads in America Jack Dorsey’s Block and Cash App provides the best opportunity for job seekers looking to enter the industry with over 200 new associate-level positions […] Kraken has posted over 600 new job ads in the United States in the last seven days, accounting for almost one in five of all new crypto job ads in America Jack Dorsey’s Block and Cash App provides the best opportunity for job seekers looking to enter the industry with over 200 new associate-level positions More crypto job ads have been posted this week than in previous weeks over the last month Kraken Is Leading The Crypto Recruitment Charge Analysis of online jobs data has revealed that crypto exchange Kraken is leading the crypto recruitment charge. The company is looking to fill over 650 new positions in the past week in the UK and United States. .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Further analysis shows that Jack Dorsey’s Block and Cash App were the best companies for crypto job seekers looking to enter the industry, with over 200 new positions advertised in the last week at associate level. More crypto job ads have been posted this week than in previous weeks, over the past month. The study by blockchain jobs site Crypto Jobs List found that in the United States, 3,103 new crypto job ads were posted on one popular internet job site over the last week, with almost two thirds (64.29%) of all positions advertised as remote. Over the past month, 37% of all crypto job ads in the United States were uploaded in the past seven days. Software engineer is the most sought-after job title, which makes up under one third (29.29%) of all crypto job ads in the United States, followed by frontend developer and product manager, with 112 and 94 new job ads, respectively. Salaries range from $40,000 to $200,000+. Mid-senior level positions are the most in-demand, representing four in ten crypto job ads over the last seven days, followed by associate and entry level positions, respectively. Kraken Digital Asset Exchange is the top employer, with 618 new full-time job ads in the past week, all of which are remote. This means that in the past week, almost one in five crypto jobs ads in the United States (19.91%) was posted by Kraken. Kraken is hiring for roles in various departments including IT/engineering, administrative, human resources, marketing, advertising and public relations, legal, finance and sales. Circle has the second highest number with 159 new full-time job ads, all remote, with experience levels ranging from Associate to Director. Marketing is the most sought-after job function, which accounts for almost two-fifths of all job ads posted in the last week by Circle. Other positions the company is looking to fill include Sales, IT, Finance, Management, Product Management and Project Management. Ex-Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey’s Square is third with 119 new job ads, 102 (85.71%) of which are advertised as remote positions. Square is looking primarily for software and full stack engineers, Android and iOS developers, program managers and product managers, but is also looking to make new hires in marketing, creative and design departments. 72 of these job ads are advertised at associate experience level, with the remainder at mid-senior level. Circle and Cash App have collectively posted 215 new associate level job ads in America in the past week, making these companies the best for crypto job seekers looking for a foot in the door to the industry. In the United Kingdom, 562 crypto job ads have been posted in the last seven days. Over four in ten (43.77%) are remote working positions. Compared to the total number of crypto job ads posted in the UK over the last month, 32% were added in the last seven days. Almost three in ten job ads are for software engineers. Other in-demand roles for the United Kingdom include product managers, blockchain developers, marketing managers and recruiters. 72, or over one in ten (12.81%) crypto job ads posted over the last seven days in the United Kingdom were by Kraken, all of which are full-time remote positions. Kraken is looking to hire for a range of roles in the UK including software engineers, recruiters and managers. Binance has added 32 new job ads in the UK over the last seven days, 29 of which are remote. Binance is looking to hire for a range of job functions including IT/engineering, marketing, art/creative/design, sales, human resources and product management. Experience level sought in the UK mirrors the pattern seen in the US, with most positions advertised at mid-senior level, followed by associate and entry level, respectively. In India, 183 crypto job ads were posted in the last seven days. Marvell India is the top employer with 17 new job ads, followed by CoinDCX and Nium. Compared to the last month, 36% of all crypto job ads were uploaded in India over the past week. Unlike the United States and United Kingdom, most positions are location-based, representing over half (56.83%) of the latest crypto job ads posted in India, with just over one quarter being fully remote. Almost three in ten (28.96%) positions were based in Bengaluru. As seen in the UK and USA, software engineer is the most sought-after role, accounting for 38% of the latest Indian crypto job ads. Other in-demand roles include customer specialist, writer, software quality assurance and testing, developer and human resources. A spokesperson from Crypto Jobs List, commented on the findings: “Now is the perfect time for anyone with a genuine interest in working in crypto to apply for a job. The market downturn has meant that individuals who don’t plan to stick around for long are deterred, and only serious candidates that are interested in a long-term career are left to apply, and hiring managers recognise this. Kraken and Binance have shown that they plan to stay around for a long time by looking to grow their headcount during a bear market.” The study was conducted by  Crypto Jobs List, the #1 site to find and post Cryptocurrency, Blockchain and Web3 jobs. Find A Qualified Financial Advisor Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn't have to be hard. SmartAsset's free tool matches you with up to 3 fiduciary financial advisors in your area in 5 minutes. Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests. If you're ready to be matched with local advisors that can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now. Updated on Jul 1, 2022, 1:57 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkJul 1st, 2022

The Margin: It ain’t a bear market for Bobby Bonilla. How the former Mets player’s financial feat illustrates the magic of compound interest.

July 1 marks an annual $1.2 million payday for the former Mets third baseman......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatchJul 1st, 2022

Economic barometer copper sinks deeper into a bear market after worst quarter in a decade amid global slowdown fears

Copper prices in London fell as much as 3.6% to $7,959 a ton on Friday, diving deeper into a bear market. Molten copper flows into molds at a smelting plant at Wuzhou Jinsheng Copper Company in China.He Huawen/VCG via Getty Images Copper prices in London fell as much as 3.6% to $7,959 a ton on Friday, diving deeper into a bear market. The metal, which is seen an a bellwether for the global economy, hit its lowest point since early 2021. For the second quarter that ended on Thursday, copper fell nearly 20%, the worst quarterly decline since 2011. Copper prices in London fell as much as 3.6% to $7,959 a ton on Friday, diving deeper into a bear market after suffering the worst quarterly loss in a decade.The commodity, an often seen as a barometer to gauge the global economy, fell to its lowest point since February 2021, as recession fears also hit prices for other key industrial metals, such as aluminum, nickel, iron and zinc.While copper prices edged back above $8,000 later on Friday, the intraday low marked a decline of 25.6% from a peak above $10,700 a ton in May 2021. For the second quarter that ended on Thursday, copper fell nearly 20%, the worst quarterly decline since 2011.A copper bear market has happened before each recession in the last 30 years, which could indicate another economic downturn may be underway. It's used in everything from electrics and electronics to construction, meaning it's intertwined with the underlying global economy. Copper's lackluster performance is a sharp reversal from the early months of 2022, when a surge in demand for goods and production sent prices higher.The picture has since changed as the Federal Reserve alongside global central banks tighten monetary policy to combat skyrocketing inflation and attempt to slow the economy down.  But metals could reverse course this year as China resurfaces from stringent Covid-19 lockdowns that slowed demand. Activity related to manufacturing ticked up in June, while its property market recovered from previous losses. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJul 1st, 2022

Nowhere to Hide

    Welcome to the Second Half of this annus horribilis, the worst start to any year since 1982? 1971? 1929? Pick your favorite year, the specifics no longer matter. The headlines are all shouting at us how bad the first half was. The New York Times is fairly typical: “After Worst Start in 50… Read More The post Nowhere to Hide appeared first on The Big Picture.     Welcome to the Second Half of this annus horribilis, the worst start to any year since 1982? 1971? 1929? Pick your favorite year, the specifics no longer matter. The headlines are all shouting at us how bad the first half was. The New York Times is fairly typical: “After Worst Start in 50 Years, Some See More Pain Ahead for Stock Market.” Mohammed El-Erian sums it up well: Further to yesterday’s tweet, some of this morning’s media headlines.#Investors are finding that the notion of “#inflation impacting everyone” applies to them too. A key issue for the outlook is the extent to which a late #Fed will aggressively hike rates into a slowing #economy pic.twitter.com/GDxqPBT9GO — Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) July 1, 2022   The problem with all of this handwringing: It’s a feature, not a bug, and there is nothing you can do about it. If you want the upside, you must tolerate the uncomfortable downside (more or less). Consider the century of drawdowns as shown in the chart above. If you want to see any kind of long-term returns, putting up with regular decreases in value is simply the cost of admission. You can diversify, but that has not helped very much this year. You can try to time the market, but good luck with that. Few can do it, fewer still with any consistency, and fewer yet will do it on your behalf. You can try to miss the big down days, but then you end up missing the big up days, too. Worse, people who try to time make a hash out of the process, with 30% never returning to risk assets or equities — just move to cash, and * SHEESH*  stay that way for the rest of their lives. Rather than get pulled into this mania, it is much more useful and psychologically healthy to recognize we must accept that drawdown, corrections, bear markets, and crashes are simply part of the process. Indeed, they are a very important part, because bear markets and crashes are where you earn the upside over risk-free treasuries. Risk is what leads to returns — and risk means suffering through markets that fail to meet your expectations. Have a great holiday weekend . . .         Previously: Big Up Big Down Days May 5, 2022 Panic Selling Quantified (March 24, 2022) If You Sell Now, When Do You Get Back In? (March 23, 2022) Stop Listening to Pundits (December 8, 2021) Market Volatility is a Feature not a Bug (February 11, 2019) Pundit Suckitude: Its a feature, not a bug. (July 30, 2013)   The post Nowhere to Hide appeared first on The Big Picture......»»

Category: blogSource: TheBigPictureJul 1st, 2022

The Margin: It ain’t a bear market for Bobby Bonilla. How the former Mets player’s financial feat illustrates magic of compound interest.

July 1 marks an annual $1.2 million payday for the former Mets third baseman.....»»

Category: topSource: marketwatchJul 1st, 2022

Now Is the Time to Pick Your Forever Stocks

InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips There’s never a “bad” time to buy the stocks you’d like to hold onto for a good, long time, but the bear market we’ve been experiencing lately has greatly discounted much of our favorite stocks.  The post Now Is the Time to Pick Your Forever Stocks appeared first on InvestorPlace......»»

Category: dealsSource: nytJul 1st, 2022

Stock Market News for Jul 1, 2022

U.S. stocks ended lower on Thursday, with the S&P recording its worst first-half performance in more than 50 years. U.S. stocks ended lower on Thursday, with the S&P recording its worst first-half performance in more than 50 years. The Dow and S&P 500 also registered their worst quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2020, while the Nasdaq recorded its worst quarter since 2008. All the three major indexes ended Thursday’s session in negative territory.How Did The Benchmarks Perform?The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) slid 0.8% or 253.88 points to close at 30,775.43 points.The S&P 500 declined 0.9% or 33.45 points to finish at 3,785.38 points. Energy, consumer discretionary and tech stocks were once again the biggest losers.The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) gave up 1.1%. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) slipped 1.5%, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) lost 1.3%. Seven of the 11 sectors of the benchmark index ended in negative territory.The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.3% or 149.16 points to end at 11,028.74 points.The fear-gauge CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was up 1.95% to 28.71. Decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.75-to-1 ratio. On Nasdaq, a 1.52-to-1 ratio favored declining issues. A total of 12.58 billion shares were traded on Thursday, lower than the last 20-session average of 12.86 billion.Market Volatile on Recession FearsThursday marked the final day of the first half of the year and also the second quarter. The first half, particularly the second quarter, witnessed one of the most turbulent times for the markets in recent times, as major indexes entered bear market and correction territory from their all-time highs.Stocks started taking a hit from the beginning of the year as rising prices and soaring interest rates have been making investors jittery. Investors now are fearing an economic slowdown owing to the aggressive rate-hike stance adopted by the Fed to check surging inflation. This has been taking a toll on stocks.On Thursday, a fresh batch of economic data showed personal consumption expenditures declining in June, indicating that people are now skeptical about spending freely, as soaring price of consumer goods is pinching their pockets. The consumption data came just a day after a downwardly revised first-quarter GDP showed that growth contracted more than it was previously expected in the first three months of the year.This further dented investors’ confidence. Healthcare, energy and consumer discretionary stocks were the big losers. Shares of HCA Healthcare, Inc. HCA declined 4.3%. Shares of Carnival Corporation & plc CCL fell 2.5%, while Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH declined 3.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Norwegian Cruise Line carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Investors’ Worries AggravateStocks have been taking a beating since the beginning of the year. A rise in COVID-19 cases owing to the Omicron variant, followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during the initial months aggravated concerns over a financial meltdown. Fears of a possible recession further escalated on decades-high inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed.Higher interest rates sent bond yields higher and historically price equity valuations saw growth stocks, especially the tech sector, taking a hit. Future earnings, like those promised by growth businesses, become less alluring as rates rise. Thus, tech stocks have been one of the worst affected this year, which saw the Nasdaq taking a major hit. The index is now down over 31% from its Nov 22 all-time high.The Fed has so far lifted the policy rate by 150 basis points in its past three meetings and more hikes are likely to follow. Aggressive interest rate hikes have now raised concerns over a slowing economy, which have been denting the confidence of investors, leading to massive selloffs almost every week. The S&P 500 is also down by more than 20% at the halfway point of the year. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both in bear market territory, while the Dow is in a correction zone.Economic DataEconomic data released on the last day of the quarter further aggravated fears among investors. Consumer spending slowed, disposable income decreased and inflation remained high.The Commerce Department said on Thursday that inflation rose marginally lower than expected by still remained hot. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices jumped 4.7% year over year in May, declining 0.2% from the previous month. Economists had expected a rise of 4.8%.On a month-over-month basis, the index, which excludes prices of volatile food and energy, rose 0.3%, less than analysts’ expectations of a rise of 0.4%. Headline inflation figures rose 0.6% in May, which was high compared to a 0.2% rise in April. This kept the year-over-year inflation figure at 6.3%, unchanged from April.The report also mentioned that personal income rose 0.5% in May, higher than expectations of a rise of 0.4%. However, disposable personal income declined 0.1% on a month-over-month basis and 3.3% from a year ago.Also, personal spending, after adjusting for inflation, saw a sharp decline of 0.4% in May from 0.3% in April. However, it was up 2.1% year over year.Goods inflation jumped 9.6%, while services inflation increased 4.7% month over month in May.In other economic data released on Thursday, the Labor Department said that initial jobless claims fell to 231,000 for the week ending Jun 25, a declining 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The four-week moving average also increased to 231,750, an increase of 7,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 224,500.Continuing claims came in at 1,328,000, a decline of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week's numbers were revised down by 16,000 from 1,315,000 to 1,331,000. The 4-week moving average came in at 1,319,500, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average.Half-Yearly RoundupThe first half of the year has been one of the worst for markets in decades. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are in the bear market and the Dow is in correction territory. The S&P 500 is down 20.6% year to date, recording its worst first half since 1970 when it declined 21.1%.The Nasdaq fell 29.5% through Thursday’s close to record its worst first half ever.The Dow fell 15.3% through Thursday to record its worst first half since 1962 when it declined 23.2%.Quarterly RoundupAll the three major indexes recorded their second straight quarterly decline. The S&P 500 declined 18.3% through Thursday’s close. The last time the index recorded two straight quarters of decline was in 2015.The Dow declined 12.8% for the quarter. The last time the blue-chip index posted two declines for two consecutive quarters was in 2015.The Nasdaq ended the second quarter down 22.4%. The tech-heavy index recorded two-straight quarters of decline for the last time in 2016.Monthly RoundupThe S&P and Dow ended the month down 9% and 7.3%, respectively. The Nasdaq declined 9.1% in June. Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. It’s a little-known chemical company that’s up 65% over last year, yet still dirt cheap. With unrelenting demand, soaring 2022 earnings estimates, and $1.5 billion for repurchasing shares, retail investors could jump in at any time. This company could rival or surpass other recent Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in little more than 9 months and NVIDIA which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Carnival Corporation (CCL): Free Stock Analysis Report Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL): Free Stock Analysis Report HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA): Free Stock Analysis Report Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksJul 1st, 2022

: Why it seems that all of your trusty stock-market indicators are busted

In a bear market, frustrated investors believe nothing works......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatchJul 1st, 2022

Futures, Yields Slide In Recessionary Start To New Quarter

Futures, Yields Slide In Recessionary Start To New Quarter As DB's Jim Reid puts it "if you want the good news this morning it's that H1 is now finally over. If you want the bad news it's that there's not much good news around as we start H2 and US equity futures are already down around a percent in the first few hours of the new half year. " Indeed, just when you thoughts stocks couldn't possibly slide any more after just concluding the worst first half in 52 years... ... and with investor and consumer sentiment at record lows, you'd be shocked to learn that futures and stocks started the new month and quarter by plumbing fresh lows as fears of soaring inflation and tumbling earnings boosted concerns about an imminent recession, and the resulting risk aversion lifted bonds and havens and sent risk sliding.  The "Big Short" Michael Burry said we may only be about halfway through the market's decline... Adjusted for inflation, 2022 first half S&P 500 down 25-26%, and Nasdaq down 34-35%, Bitcoin down 64-65%. That was multiple compression. Next up, earnings compression. So, maybe halfway there. — Cassandra B.C. (@michaeljburry) June 30, 2022 ... while Goldman was also downbeat, seeing global equities selling off further in the near term. As of 730am, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 pointed to declines of 0.3%, having shaved off as much as a 1% drop earlier... ... while 10-year US Treasury yield slid below 3% to the lowest since early June as markets now price in a record 10bps in rate cuts in Q1 2023 with markets confident the Fed will have to pivot to defeat the coming recession. Every Group-of-10 currency fell against the dollar and the yen, traditional havens, while bitcoin reversed a modest attempt at a breakout that briefly pushed it back over $20K. In premarket trading, shares of US chip companies fell after Micron Technology issued a downbeat forecast on weaker demand for phones and computers. Bank stocks are also lower in premarket trading, putting them on track for their fifth straight day of losses amid a broader slump in equity markets. Other notable premarket movers: Kohl’s (KSS US) plunges 15% in US premarket trading after CNBC reported it’s ending sale talks with Vitamin Shoppe owner Franchise Group. Semiconductor companies are falling on Friday after Micron Technology issued a weak forecast for the current quarter due to lower demand for phones and computers. Micron (MU US) -5.5%, Nvidia -1.3% (NVDA US), Qualcomm (QCOM US) -0.7%. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks could be active again on Friday as Bitcoin dip buyers are triggering a rally for the largest digital token. Riot Blockchain (RIOT US), Marathon Digital (MARA US) edge up 2.4% and 2.6%, respectively, in premarket. XPeng (XPEV US) burning cash in the short-term is unavoidable, Nomura says in a note that downgrades the Chinese EV maker to neutral from buy. Shares down 0.2% premarket. Risk assets continued to be the target of sellers Friday as recession worries overtake concern about runaway inflation. With Federal Reserve policymakers resolute on getting price growth back to their 2% target, investors are assessing the hit to the economy from harsh rate hikes. “Inflation is the key focus of central bankers; investors losing money is way down their list of concerns,” Chris Iggo, chief investment officer at AXA IM Core, wrote in a note to clients. “Interest rate and inflation markets are taking the view that what is priced in terms of monetary tightening will be enough to bring inflation down, but in order for that to happen, there also needs to be a cost to growth.” Meanwhile, both stocks and bonds were rocked by outflows this week, reflecting investor fears about hawkish central bank policy. About $5.8 billion exited global stock funds in the week through June 29, Bank of America said, citing EPFR Global data. Bonds had redemptions of $17 billion. Separately, global companies have pulled more debt sales in the past six months than in all of 2020. More than 70 deals have been postponed or canceled so far in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In Europe, markets reversed sharp opening losses with the Stoxx 600 briefly turning green before sliding 0.5% lower with retail and utility names supporting on the recovery. Bund yields rose after data showed euro-area inflation hit a fresh record, surpassing expectations.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today: European airlines rise on Friday, paring some declines from previous sessions, as oil is headed for the third straight weekly drop on concerns that a potential recession will hurt demand. Wizz Air rises as much as +10%, EasyJet +6.2%, British Airways owner IAG +4.4% Airbus shares rise as much as 4% after BofA analysts led by Benjamin Heelan added the aircraft manufacturer to the bank’s ‘3Q Best Ideas list,’ according to a note. SBB shares advance as much as 21.5% Friday, its largest intra-day gain since April 2017, after the company was included in Nasdaq Stockholm’s OMXS30 index. Sodexo shares gain as much as 5.6%, the most since April 8, after the French caterer reported 3Q revenue that beat the average analyst estimate. Morgan Stanley says Friday’s update is a “relief.” Maersk shares rise as much as 3.0% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral and placed it and Kuehne Nagel on their “positive Catalyst Watch” for Q2, citing increased confidence in the longevity of current earnings. European semiconductor stocks tumble after US memory- chip maker Micron 4Q outlook fell short of analyst expectations and said the industry demand environment has weakened. Chipmaker Infineon falls as much as 5.0%, ASML drops 4.9% La Francaise des Jeux shares decline as much as 9.0% after Citi cuts the stock to sell from buy, citing concession fee to be paid that is worse than Street expectations. Craneware declines as much as 12% after an offering of ~1.2m shares by holder Abry Partners VII priced at 1,600p, a 13% discount to last close. OVH Groupe shares drop as much as 6.5% after the analysts adjusted their estimates amid a softening demand outlook. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined for a third day, as traders assessed recession risks in the global economy after weak US consumer spending and soft factories data from the region. Investors are also keeping an eye on developments from the Chinese President’s Hong Kong visit.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.1%, adding to nearly 2% weekly loss, weighed down by tech and consumer discretionary stocks. Chipmakers including TSMC and Samsung extended their declines, contributing the most to the measure’s loss along with Australian miner BHP and Indian energy giant Reliance.  Taiwan’s benchmark was again the region’s notable underperformer as it is on course for a bear market following more than a 20% fall from its January high, dragged down by technology stocks. Equity benchmarks in Japan and South Korea slipped more than 1%. Stocks in mainland China retreated after meandering between gains and losses while Hong Kong was closed for a holiday as its new chief was sworn in by Chinese President Xi Jinping.  A further slide in June purchasing managers’ indexes in Asian countries except China and the drop in US consumer spending for the first time this year in May highlighted the fragile foundation of the world economy. Those data dimmed global economic outlook and further dented investor sentiment already weakened by ongoing worries about global central banks’ aggressive rate hikes to fight inflation.  “Overall, weakened US consumer spending will lead to a drop in global demand. It will affect export-dominated markets like South Korea in particular,” said Cui Xuehua, a China equity analyst at Meritz Securities in Seoul. “Traders are also looking to see if there will be policies benefiting Hong Kong, such as a re-opening of borders and increased trade” as Xi visits Hong Kong. Asian stocks plunged about 18% during the first half of this year, capping the first six months with the worst annual drop since 2008. Asian equities have struggled to rebound from a low in May as global recession worries and aggressive tightening by central banks triggered heavy outflows of funds from emerging markets. Chinese stocks have remained a bright spot last month as Beijing winds down its stringent virus restrictions and investors expected regulatory and monetary support for key sectors.   In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.6% for the week, as the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars slumped to their lowest levels in two years amid ongoing recession worries that boosted haven assets. After a late sell-off Friday, shares swung to a loss of 0.4% to close at 6,539.90, driven by declines in energy and material stocks, with a group of mining shares hitting the lowest since Nov. 22 following commodity price drops.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1.1% to 10,753.16 In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by around 0.3% as the greenback traded stronger against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. Australian and New Zealand dollars plunged to new two-year lows. The euro fluctuated around $1.0450 after the latest data showed that euro-area consumer prices rose 8.6% from a year earlier in June -- up from 8.1% in May. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg saw a gain of 8.5%. The yen rose and the nation’s bonds were steady to higher. One-week options in dollar-yen are once again overpriced as short-term risks make a strong case for long-gamma exposure. Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan report of confidence among Japan’s large manufacturers fell to 9 in June from 14 three months ago, the biggest drop since the peak of the pandemic. In rates, the German curve bear-steepened, with long-end yields ~7bps cheaper after a manufacturing PMIs show notable softness in new orders. Cash Treasuries extended Thursday’s bull steepening move, with front-end and belly dropping over 10bp from prior day’s close while richer by ~4bps at the short end. Ten-year yields fell further to below 3%, breaching the 50-day moving average, while eurodollar strip bull flattens as recession risk and Fed rate cuts continue to be priced in for next year.  10-year yields dropped to as low as 2.937%, the lowest since June 6, before edging back above 2.95% in early US session, outperforming bunds by 5.5bps. The belly and front-end outperformance causing a steepening of 5s30s curve by 6bp on the day and 2s10s by 3bps; 5s30s peaks through 20bp and onto widest levels in a month. Two-year yield fell 10bp to 2.85%. The Eurodollar strip continues to bull flatten as rate hike premium is eased out of next year; Dec22/Dec23 spread drops to -63.5bp and fresh cycle lows.  German government benchmark yields rose after data showed euro-area inflation hit a fresh record, surpassing expectations. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index wavered between losses and gains. Gilts are relatively quiet. Most peripheral spreads are modestly wider to core. In commodities, crude futures advance. WTI drifts 1.9% higher to trade near $107.73. Brent rises 2% near $111.23. Most base metals are in the red. LME copper briefly drops below $8,000 a ton for the first time since February 2021. Spot gold falls roughly $12 to trade near $1,795/oz.  Looking to the day ahead, data releases include the flash Euro Area CPI reading for June, as well as June’s global manufacturing PMIs and the ISM manufacturing reading from the US, along with the UK’s mortgage approvals for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Panetta and De Cos. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 3,774.25 MXAP down 1.0% to 156.37 MXAPJ down 1.0% to 519.11 Nikkei down 1.7% to 25,935.62 Topix down 1.4% to 1,845.04 Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 21,859.79 Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,387.64 Sensex down 0.6% to 52,688.97 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 6,539.91 Kospi down 1.2% to 2,305.42 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 407.16 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.39% Euro down 0.2% to $1.0459 Brent Futures up 0.8% to $109.95/bbl Gold spot down 0.7% to $1,794.17 US Dollar Index up 0.26% to 104.95 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The Bank of Japan’s decision to pass up an opportunity to ramp up its policy defenses points to a fear of triggering a further weakening of the embattled yen Japan’s state pension fund, the world’s largest, posted its first quarterly loss in two years as declines in global stock and bond markets during the three months through March weighed down the value of its assets After years of subdued price swings caused by central bank intervention, a key gauge of volatility in the 1 quadrillion yen ($7.4 trillion) government bond market has surged in recent weeks to the highest level since 2008. That’s boosting demand for JGB traders, with Nomura Holdings Inc. noting signs of intensifying competition for talent Copper sank below $8,000 a ton, hitting its lowest since early 2021, as deepening fears about a global economic slowdown drive a rout in industrial metals markets Chinese President Xi Jinping urged Hong Kong to shore up its economy after an era of “chaos,” in a landmark visit that offered few clear answers for how to balance Beijing’s demands for limiting perceived foreign threats with its desire to remain an international financial hub A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pacific stocks began the new trading month mostly in the red as the region digested a slew of data releases and amid headwinds from the US where Consumer Spending data disappointed and Atlanta Fed's GDPnow model alluded to a recession.     ASX 200 was just about kept afloat by resilience in nearly all industries aside from the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 26,000 level after the latest Tankan survey mostly disappointed. Shanghai Comp. traded indecisively despite the stronger than expected Caixin Manufacturing PMI data which rose to its highest since May 2021 as sentiment in the mainland was constrained by falling commodity prices, as well as the absence of Hong Kong participants and Stock Connect flows. Top Asian News Chinese President Xi said "one country, two systems" has been successful for Hong Kong over the past 25 years and said Hong Kong is a window and a bridge connecting the mainland to the world, while he added that Hong Kong has to defend against interference and focus on development, according to Bloomberg and Reuters. Hong Kong's new Chief Executive Lee was sworn in and stated the National Security Law brought stability after chaos, while he added the government will strive to control and manage COVID-19 through scientific methods, according to Reuters. UK PM Johnson said China has been failing to comply with its commitments on Hong Kong and the UK intends to do all it can to hold China to account, according to Reuters. PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 50bln net daily drain, according to Reuters. World’s Top Pension GPIF Posts Quarterly Loss on Stock Rout Three Arrows Crypto Fund CEO Wants to Sell Singapore Mansion Kishida Says LNG Supply From Sakhalin Won’t Immediately Stop Japan Mulls LNG From Spot Market to Replace Russian Supply: METI European bourses are back in the red after briefly recovering from opening losses. Sectors are mixed with no clear theme - Tech is the laggard and Utilities the outperformer. Chip stocks are after sources said TSMC has seen its major clients adjust downward their chip orders for the rest of 2022, whilst Micron's guidance was underwhelming. Stateside, US equity futures remain in negative territory but off worst levels as the contracts coat-tail on some of Europe’s upside. Top European News French government spokesperson said a possible cabinet reshuffle could take place Monday or Tuesday, according to Reuters. Euro-Zone Inflation Hits Record in Boost for Big-Hike Calls Food Inflation Gets a Break as Wheat, Corn and Soy Oil Tumble UK House Sales Slow as ‘Intense’ Market Starts to Cool FX Dollar regroups after late month end fade amidst broad gains ahead of US manufacturing ISM and construction spending - DXY retests 105.000+ levels from 104.640 low yesterday. Yen bucks trend, but off recovery peaks as yields firm up and risk aversion wanes - Usd/Jpy around 135.500 vs 134.74 overnight base. Aussie underperforms and hits fresh 2022 trough sub-6800 and Kiwi under 0.6200 after decline in ANZ consumer sentiment. Pound undermined by downward revision to UK manufacturing PMI with Cable below 1.2100 and prone to test of Fib support if 1.2050 breached. Euro back on 1.0400 handle and propped by better than forecast Eurozone manufacturing PMIs and stronger than expected inflation metrics. Rand extends declines alongside Gold as SA power and pay issues rumble on - Usd/Zar above 16.3400, spot bullion below Usd 1800/oz. Fixed Income Debt futures rack up more safe haven gains before recovery in risk sentiment and sharp reversal. Bunds recoil from 149.46 to 148.24, Gilts retreat to 113.79 from 114.52 and 10 year T-note pulls back from 118-29+ to 118-06 as benchmark yield retests 3% briefly. Bonds subsequently bounce off lows awaiting US manufacturing ISM and construction spending ahead of long Independence Day holiday weekend. Commodities WTI and Brent front-month futures retrace some of yesterday’s losses with upside also spurred the recovery across the stock markets Libya's NOC announced a force majeure over Es Sider, Ras Lanuf Ports and the El Feel oilfield, while it noted that oil production decreased as daily exports ranged between 365-408k BPD which is a decline of 865k BPD, according to Reuters. Spot gold is under pressure after the yellow metal breached USD 1,800/oz to the downside – with the next level to the downside at USD 1,786/oz, the May 16th low. Base metals are softer across the board as recession woes grapple with the risk-correlated market. LME 3M copper briefly fell beneath the USD 8,000/t for the first time since January. India raised the basic import tax on gold to 12.5% from 7.5%, according to BQ Prime citing a Gazette notification. US Event Calendar 09:45: June S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 52.4, prior 52.4 10:00: May Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2% 10:00: June ISM Manufacturing, est. 54.5, prior 56.1 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap If you want the good news this morning it's that H1 is now finally over. If you want the bad news it's that there's not much good news around as we start H2 and US equity futures are already down around a percent in the first few hours of the new half year. Having said that it's eminently possible that whatever age you are reading this you might ALL have now witnessed the worst first half of a year in your career either looking back or forward. So if you've survived that it might not all be bad news. Younger readers can come back to me after the awful H1 2055 and tell me I'm wrong. Henry will put out some more stats in our usual month-end performance review shortly, which reads like a bit of a horror story, but for what it’s worth the S&P 500 has now seen its worst H1 total return performance in 60 years, and also in total return terms it’s fallen for two consecutive quarters for the first time since the GFC. Meanwhile 10yr Treasuries look set (with a final calculation imminent) to have recorded their worst H1 since 1788, just before George Washington became President. As I mentioned in a previous chart of the day, bad H1’s for equities have tended to be followed by much better H2’s. But with increasing warnings that a recession is round the corner, it isn’t so obvious where things are headed this time round. Indeed, equities saw another significant selloff yesterday as those fears were magnified yet again by another weaker than expected round of data which genuinely puts the US at risk of a technical recession in H1 already. That included the US weekly initial jobless claims for the week through June 25, which although coming in inline at 231k (vs. 230k expected), did send the smoother 4-week moving average up to its highest level so far this year. Our preferred measure, namely containing claims, edged up but is not yet signalling a recession though. Personal spending also came in at just +0.2% in May (vs. +0.4% expected), and the prior month was revised down three-tenths as well, whilst real personal spending (-0.4%) saw its first monthly decline of the year as well. That translated to a 0.3% MoM Core PCE reading, below expectations of 0.4%, while the YoY reading was 6.3%. The prospect of the Fed being forced into hikes to fight stubborn inflation while growth is rolling over appears to be something the markets will have to wrestle with sooner rather than later. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed’s 2Q GDP nowcast estimate was revised down from 0.3% to -1.0% which if proved correct will signal a technical recession as a minimum. Today's ISM will be a big sentiment driver on this front. Against the weak growth backdrop, the S&P 500 (-0.88%) continued its run of having declined every day this week, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (-1.50%) saw even sharper losses. Utilities (+1.10%) were the clear outperformer, as investors rotate into defensive sectors. In turn, the NASDAQ underperformed, closing down -1.33%, also finishing in the red every day this week to date. The S&P 500 lost -20.58% in the first half of the year, its worst first half performance since 1970. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ has fared even worse, declining -22.44% this quarter alone and -29.51% in the first half of the year, its worst first half in the data available in Bloomberg. But in some ways the fear was more evident among sovereign bonds, which rallied significantly as investors continued to seek out safe havens and grew more doubtful about whether central banks would be able to persist in taking policy into aggressive territory. Indeed, the rate priced by Fed funds futures for the December 2022 meeting came down -6.5bps to 3.39%, and the rate priced by December 2023 came down an even larger -13.6bps to 2.96%. Those shifting expectations meant that yields on 10yr Treasuries fell back beneath 3% in the session for the first time in nearly 3 weeks, ultimately settling -7.6bps lower on the day at 3.01%. The decline in 10yr yields was split between breakevens and real yields, as both had a volatile session to end the quarter. Breakevens fell -4.7bps to 2.35%, their lowest levels since September. Other recessionary indicators were flashing warning signs of their own, with the near-term Fed spread down another -14.9bps to 142bps, meanwhile the 2s10s curve managed to eek out a marginal steepening, but is still flirting with inversion, closing at just 5.1bps. This morning, 10yr UST yields (-5.92 bps) are lower again, moving back below 3% to 2.95% with the 2s10 curve flattening -1bps at 4.13% as we type. We saw much the same pattern in Europe yesterday, albeit with even larger moves lower in yields that sent those on 10yr bunds (-18.3bps), OATs (-15.2bps) and BTPs (-13.3bps) sharply lower. As in the US, European sovereign yield declines were driven by falling inflation compensation, with the 10yr German breakeven coming down by -12.3bps to 2.03%, which is its lowest closing level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. That was echoed in a declining oil price with Brent crude down -1.60% yesterday at $109.52/bbl, meaning that oil prices saw a monthly decline in June for the first time since November 2021, back when the Omicron variant first emerged and travel restrictions started going back up again. Speaking of energy prices, there were a few interesting headlines on that front yesterday, including a comment from President Biden that he is seeking more production from the Gulf states. Biden is set to travel to the Middle East from July 13-16, so that’s an important event on the geopolitical calendar, and ahead of that, we also saw the OPEC+ group move to ratify yesterday a further supply hike of +648k barrels per day in August. In Europe however there was more bad news on the energy side, with natural gas futures up a further +3.53% to a fresh three-month high of €144.51 per megawatt-hour. My colleague George Saravelos put out a fascinating blog yesterday (link here) that highlighted how worried he’s becoming on the gas supply situation, with year-ahead natural gas prices making fresh record highs and electricity prices skyrocketing. A key event as part of that will be the shutdown of the Nordstream pipeline from July 11-21 for regular annual maintenance, and press reports are suggesting that authorities are attempting to find a solution on sanctions restrictions to move gas turbine components back to Russia. So while we all spend most of our time thinking about the Fed and recessions, what happens to Russian gas over H2 is potentially an even bigger story. Mark July 22nd in your dairies to see whether the gas supply starts getting back to normal or not. Asian equity markets are reversing early morning gains and are mostly down again. The Kospi (-1.04%) is the largest underperformer across the region followed by the Nikkei (-0.88%). Over in mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (-0.30%) and CSI (-0.20%) are down but are trimming losses, as the nation’s private factory activity rose at the fastest pace in 13 months in June (more on this below). Markets in Hong Kong are closed for a holiday marking the 25th anniversary of Chinese rule. Bucking the regional trend is Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 which is trading +0.26% higher at the time of writing. Outside of Asia, stock futures are once again sliding with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.84%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.86%) indicating a disappointing start in the US later today. Early morning data showed that China’s Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI advanced to 51.7 in June, returning to expansion territory for the first time in four months against a previous reading of 48.1 and well above analyst expectations for an uptick to 50.1. The recovery as suggested in the survey was propelled by a strong rebound in output, as the easing Covid restrictions sent factories racing to meet recovering demand. Over in Japan, Tokyo’s June CPI rose +2.3% y/y (v/s +2.5% expected) and against a +2.4% increase in the prior month. Core CPI advanced +2.1% in June from a year earlier, notching the fastest pace of increase in seven years in a sign of broadening inflationary pressure in the world’s third largest economy. Separately, the unemployment rate in Japan surprisingly edged up to +2.6% in May from +2.5% in April. Meanwhile, sentiment at Japan’s large manufacturers deteriorated in the April-to-June period as the headline index worsened to a level of +9, a decline from the previous quarter’s reading of 14. Looking at yesterday’s other data, French CPI came in at +6.5% as expected on the EU-harmonised measure in June, although German unemployment unexpectedly rose +133k in June (vs -5k expected) as Ukrainian refugees are now being included in those looking for work. Looking back to May however, the Euro Area unemployment rate hit its lowest level since the formation of the single currency at 6.6% (vs. 6.8% expected). Finally in the US, the MNI Chicago PMI came in at 56.0 (vs. 58.0 expected). To the day ahead now, and data releases include the flash Euro Area CPI reading for June, as well as June’s global manufacturing PMIs and the ISM manufacturing reading from the US, along with the UK’s mortgage approvals for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Panetta and De Cos. Tyler Durden Fri, 07/01/2022 - 07:57.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJul 1st, 2022

: Why it seems that all of your trusty stock market indicators are busted

In a bear market, frustrated investors believe nothing works......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatchJul 1st, 2022

Bitcoin might be on another precipice. A technical analyst says another crash could be coming for the world"s biggest crypto.

The biggest story today in markets is cryptocurrency's downturn and bitcoin's potential plunge — not to mention top stock picks from experts. Happy Friday readers. Phil Rosen here — boy am I glad to see you today.As a final send-off before the long weekend, I wanted to share some more chipper news…But in a bear market that's harder to come by. So instead, I'll be explaining the crypto downturn, and why a top analyst says bitcoin still has plenty of room to fall (even though it just sagged below $19,000 yesterday). Here we go. Programming note: There will be no newsletter on Monday, the Fourth of July. Enjoy the long weekend. If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. Download Insider's app here.Bitcoin tumbled to well below $20,000 over the weekend, before rebounding somewhat on Monday.Anadolu Agency/Getty Images1. The world's biggest crypto might be just getting started — with its dramatic decline, that is. According to Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton, bitcoin's negative momentum points to another 27% fall as it tests a key support level. "Bitcoin has stabilized after a reaction to short-term oversold indications last week, supporting a short-term neutral bias within a bearish long-term trend," Stockton said.On Thursday, bitcoin slipped about 5% to sag below $19,000. If the crypto breaks the $18,300 support level, Stockton said it could freefall all the way to its 2019 highs of about $13,900.Bitcoin's nosedive and the subsequent rout in the wider crypto space has spurred a series of implosions that have rippled through the market this year. Most recently, hedge fund Three Arrows Capital defaulted on a $670 million loan comprising roughly 15,000 bitcoin and $350 million in stablecoin USDC. Meanwhile, crypto exchange CoinFlex this week was the latest in a spate of firms announcing that it would halt customer withdrawal as it deals with a $47 million bad debt. Shaky investor confidence has sparked a wave of deleveraging in the sector. Retail investors are scaling back their margin accounts, and miners are selling bitcoin after using it as leverage to expand their operations. However, there are some analysts who believe the deleveraging cycle is nearing its end.Companies in the space have taken a big hit, but giants like Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX are seeing opportunities. According to reports, Bankman-Fried's crypto exchange is in talks to buy beleaguered crypto lender BlockFi. Citing a source, CNBC said FTX is expected to pay roughly $25 million, 99% below BlockFi's last private valuation. BlockFi's CEO, Zac Prince, however, took to Twitter to comment on the report. It comes after The Block reported that FTX was also interested in making a deal with Celsius, but walked away because of the state of its finances.Vladimir Putin's Russia managed to avoid default on Tuesday.Alexander Demyanchuk/AP2. US stock futures fell early Friday, after the S&P 500 closed out its worst first half of a year since 1970. You can see the latest market moves here. 3. On the docket: Nomad Holdings Ltd., Weathernews Inc., and more all reporting. Plus, look out for the ISM report on business manufacturing PMI, expected from the Institute for Supply Management at 9:00 am ET. 4. These are the stocks set to outperform in a market struggling to deal with recession risks and high inflation. That's according to UBS analysts, who said the uncertain market can present risks. See their list of 33 companies. 5. Analysts are forecasting that Bed Bath & Beyond has another 50% to fall. The stock's "dumpster fire" first quarter means its days could be numbered. As one analyst put it: "We are in the end days."6. RBC's commodities chief said oil prices could be set to rise further thanks to OPEC struggles and higher demand. The oil cartel lacks additional supplies to meet the call for more output, the analyst said, and China's economic reopening will push demand higher. Here's what you want to know. 7. A top Indian company paid for Russian coal in yuan. And traders said more buyers could turn to China's currency for deals with Moscow, according to a Reuters report. One trader said he had never heard of an Indian firm paying in yuan for international trade in his entire 25 year career.8. A retiree who ditched his job at the age of 26 explained how he built an investment portfolio he could live off of. His annual withdrawal rate remains below the stock market's average growth — and he shared which funds he bought and how he allows his holdings to grow. 9. After an abrupt break in the recent rally, Evercore broke down its top stock picks. Julian Emanual said bear market rallies are treacherous, but they're large and powerful enough for investors to trade profitably. These are the firm's 18 names it's eyeing — and it shared one options trade set to profit. Andy Kiersz/Insider10. It's starting to look like inflation has finally peaked. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, cooled more than expected in May. Take a look at the new economic data.Keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out The Refresh from Insider, a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. Listen here.Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn).Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJul 1st, 2022