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Beleaguered Cannabis Firm Tilray (TLRY) Finally Gains Momentum

Tilray (TLRY) stock jumps on strong earnings and an expanded addressable market Following a torrential implosion of market value since February last year, cannabis firm Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY, TSE:TLRY) finally gave its stakeholders a reason to smile. Management reported encouraging developments for its fiscal year 2022, including double-digit revenue growth and expectations to be cash flow […] Tilray (TLRY) stock jumps on strong earnings and an expanded addressable market Following a torrential implosion of market value since February last year, cannabis firm Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY, TSE:TLRY) finally gave its stakeholders a reason to smile. Management reported encouraging developments for its fiscal year 2022, including double-digit revenue growth and expectations to be cash flow positive in FY 2023. Further, Switzerland legalizing medical marijuana theoretically expands the total addressable market for cannabis companies. Tilray in particular specializes in exploring the therapeutic potential of the plant. .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   Find A Qualified Financial Advisor Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn't have to be hard. SmartAsset's free tool matches you with up to 3 fiduciary financial advisors in your area in 5 minutes. Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests. If you're ready to be matched with local advisors that can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now. According to the company’s press release, Tilray posted net revenue of $628 million, representing a 22% lift from the prior year’s tally. On a constant currency basis, net sales increased 29% from FY 2021’s result. In the fiscal fourth quarter (ended May 31, 2022), Tilray generated net revenue of $153 million, up 8% from the year-ago level. Adjusted for currency fluctuations, net revenue increased 14% to $163 million. Additionally, management expects Tilray to generate $70 million to $80 million of adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) and be free cash flow positive in its operating business units in FY 2023. Following the above disclosure in the early morning of July 28, TLRY stock gained 12% against the prior day’s session. Over the month between July 5 through Aug. 4, shares have swung higher by more than 24%. Adding to the optimism for TLRY stock and other cannabis players is a Forbes report that Switzerland legalized medical cannabis starting from Aug. 1. As well, new legislation will allow Swiss companies to export medicinal marijuana for commercial purposes. In September 2018, Tilray garnered major headlines when it announced a partnership with the University of California, San Diego. Under the arrangement, researchers at the University of California School of Medicine conducted a novel clinical trial to “examine the safety, efficacy and pharmacological properties of cannabis as a potential treatment for adults with essential tremor (ET). Currently, ET is treated using repurposed medications originally developed for high blood pressure or seizures. Surgery is another option.” In its FY 2022 disclosure, Tilray stated that it leads the European medical cannabis sector, with 20% market share in Germany. Irwin D. Simon, Tilray Brands’ chairman and CEO, stated “Over the past year, we have accelerated the optimization of our operations and sharpened execution against our most profitable core business opportunities in medical, adult-use, wellness, and beverage-alcohol across Canada, Europe, and the U.S.” Although investors have many positive details to chew on, Tilray acknowledged that it suffered a net loss of $457.8 million during fiscal Q4 compared to net income of $33.6 million in the prior-year quarter. To explain this dichotomy, Tilray mentioned challenges including “market conditions inclusive of higher rates of borrowing and lower foreign exchange rates.” The admission of rising borrowing costs comes amid the consumer price index hitting 9.1% over the year ended June 2022. Also, the purchasing power of the dollar declined by 12.92% from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic through June of this year. Article by Joshua Enomoto, Fintel Updated on Aug 5, 2022, 4:43 pm.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkAug 5th, 2022

Furious Rally Pauses As Sentiment Turns Metaworse Amid Record Earnings Barrage

Furious Rally Pauses As Sentiment Turns Metaworse Amid Record Earnings Barrage One day after the Nasdaq 100 posted its biggest jump since November 2020 when the market exploded higher after it interpreted Powell's forward guidance purge and comment that it is "likely appropriate to slow rate increases at some point" as more dovish than expected, US stocks were set to pull back as downbeat earnings and a dire outlook from bad to Metaworse weighed on demand. Futures contracts on the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.5% by 7:15 a.m. in New York, after the underlying gauge rallied 4.3% in the previous session. S&P 500 futures were down 0.2% after the benchmark index jumped to its highest level in seven weeks. Treasury yields were little changed and the dollar and bitcoin edged up. In premarket trading, Facebook parent Meta tumbled after it reported its first-ever quarterly sales decline as ad spend by businesses cooled, leading to a far worse than expected forecast. Qualcomm also slipped as it issued a lackluster forecast.  Renewable energy companies soared in Europe and premarket trading following a deal by Democrats and Senator Manchin to advance a bill that will spend hundreds of billions of dollars on energy security and climate change. Vestas Wind Systems A/S surged more than 14% as oil also rose.  Spirit Airlines Inc. rose in premarket on a deal with JetBlue Airways Corp. Among other individual movers, Best Buy dropped in premarket trading as analysts slashed their price targets on the retailer after it cut its profit and sales outlook. Ford Motor on the other hand, jumped after reporting better-than-expected adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Qualcomm (QCOM US) shares fall 4.5% in premarket trading after the chipmaker issued a lackluster forecast for the current quarter as it expects weakening economy to weigh on consumer spending on mobile devices. Watch shares of US chipmakers and semiconductor capital equipment stocks, including Lam Research (LRCX US), Applied Materials (AMAT US), Nvidia (NVDA US), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US), Intel (INTC US), after Samsung’s quarterly profit missed estimates and Qualcomm’s forecast. Meta Platforms (META US) shares are down 5.9% in premarket trading, after the Facebook parent reported its first- ever quarterly sales decline as ad spend by businesses cooled. Ford (F US) shares jumped as much as 7.7% in US premarket trading after the carmaker’s adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter beat the average analyst estimate. Solar energy and renewables stocks gain in US premarket trading after Senator Joe Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer struck a deal on a tax and energy policy bill. First Solar (FSLR US) +10%, SunRun (RUN US) +12%, Enphase Energy (ENPH US) +3.6%, SolarEdge (SEDG US) +4.0% Etsy (ETSY US) rises 6.1% in premarket trading on Thursday after the company posted stronger-than-expected second- quarter results, with most analysts seeing the online retailer retaining its market-share gains made during the pandemic ServiceNow (NOW US) shares fall 7.5% in US premarket trading, after the software company cut its full-year revenue forecast due to a stronger dollar and a potential pull back in demand. Spirit Airlines (SAVE US) shares climb 4.5% in premarket trading as JetBlue Airways is said to be close to an agreement to buy the carrier. Best Buy (BBY US) shares drop 4.4% in US premarket trading as analysts slashed their price targets on the retailer after it cut its profit and sales outlook, with brokers blaming the macroeconomic backdrop. Teladoc Health (TDOC US) shares fall about 25% in premarket trading after the virtual- care company’s 3Q Ebitda guidance came in below expectations, with analysts saying the outlook for Teladoc is likely to be revised downward. Community Health Systems Inc. (CYH US) shares plummet 52% in premarket trading after the hospital company reported a surprise loss per share for the second quarter. US stocks have rallied in July, putting the S&P 500 Index on course for its biggest monthly gain since October 2021, as the market finally grasps what we have been saying since January, namely that the weaker macroeconomic will prompt the central bank to "pivot" to easier policy, coupled with bets that much of the bad news was now priced in. It could get even worse, er better, today when the US reports Q2 GDP which may confirm that the world's largest economy is in a technical recession further shortening the Fed tightening phase. To be sure, the knee-jerk relief in markets on possible crumbs of comfort from the Fed outlook echoes a pattern seen after earlier hikes. Those bouts of optimism stumbled on recession risks from a global wave of monetary tightening, Europe’s energy woes and China’s property sector and Covid challenges. “We do feel the hikes are going to slow from these levels,” Laura Fitzsimmons, JPMorgan Australia’s executive director of macro sales, said on Bloomberg Television. But financial-industry participants are skeptical about the pricing indicating Fed rate cuts in 2023, she added. “As the tug-of-war between inflation and recession fears plays out in the second half of the year, we expect to see highly volatile markets,” Richard Flynn, UK Managing Director at Charles Schwab, wrote in a note. All eyes have also been on corporate earnings for signs of resilience in profit margins to surging inflation and weaker sentiment. A record number of US and European firms worth more than $9.4 trillion will report their results on Thursday. Of these $6.8 trillion are 55 S&P500 companies if constituents of the Nasdaq 100 are included. That comes on the heels of the Fed raising rates by 75 basis points for a second month, saying such a move is possible but that the pace of hikes will slow at some point. Chair Jerome Powell said policy will be set meeting-by-meeting as he tries to control rising prices amid signs of an economic slowdown. Big Tech will be a particular focus again with results from Amazon, Apple and Intel. “We see the earning season as a mixed bag and it’s not necessarily very good news looking forward because we have an economic momentum that is this decelerating very fast and we also have central banks all around the world hiking interest rates,” Geraldine Sundstrom, portfolio manager for asset allocation strategies at Pimco, said on Bloomberg TV. “For financial markets, the risk of the Fed taking an overly aggressive stance has eased over the past week due to mixed growth and inflation data,” said Gurpreet Gill, macro strategist of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “Growing evidence of slowing demand has curbed the need for speed –- hence the Fed did not provide forward guidance on its policy path.” The dovish Fed euphoria also helped lift European stocks, which initially faded a strong opening bounce only to recover all gains. Euro Stoxx 600 rose 0.5%, with the FTSE MIB outperforming, adding 0.8%, IBEX lags, dropping 1.3%. Telecoms, food & beverages and utilities are the worst-performing sectors. The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources index rose as much as 3.6%, the top-performing sub-index in the benchmark, following well-received results and with metals prices gaining. ArcelorMittal jumped following a cash flow beat and new buyback in its results, while Anglo American gains as its earnings and dividend both topped expectations. Other steel stocks SSAB, Voestalpine higher after ArcelorMittal and after beat from Acerinox. Copper miners KGHM and Antofagasta the biggest gainers with copper price up for fifth day. Here are some of the most notable market movers: Shell rises as much as 2.2% after the company reported what RBC Capital Markets described as strong results and announced that it will repurchase a further $6 billion of shares in the third quarter. Renewable energy companies’ shares soared following a deal by US senators to advance a bill that will spend hundreds of billions of dollars on energy security and climate change. Vestas Wind Systems stock gained as much as 15%, Nordex +12%, Orsted +6.5%, SMA Solar +7.6%, Meyer Burger +9.3% Schneider Electric shares were up as much as 5.2% after it reported a strong set of results; analysts welcome the increased FY growth targets and the company’s ability to pass on inflation. Diageo rises as much as 2.7% after the British distiller’s FY22 organic sales beat estimates. The group reiterated its medium-term guidance even as it expects a challenging environment for FY23. Stellantis shares gain as much as 4.3%, after the carmaker reported 1H results that Jefferies called “impressive and clean.” TotalEnergies declines as much as 3.8%, after its plan to maintain the pace of buybacks disappointed some analysts amid expectations for accelerated share repurchases in the industry. Airbus shares fall as much as 6.6% in Paris after the aircraft maker cut its full-year delivery projections and pushed back ramping up the A320 build rate to 65 a month from summer 2023 until early 2024. Nestle shares drop as much as 2.2% after the company cut its margin outlook for the year. The results are “mixed,” given the sales beat and increased FY organic revenue forecast, but there are questions around margin, according to analysts. Fresenius Medical Care shares slide as much as 15% after the dialysis services firm issued a guidance downgrade that showed significant cost pressures on many fronts, Truist says in a note. Ironically, as Europe edges toward a full-blown energy crisis and recession, its manufacturing giants are raking in the cash. Luxury-car leader Mercedes-Benz joined Europe’s biggest chemicals maker BASF, Swiss building-materials producer Holcim, shipping company Hapag-Lloydand others to report a jump in profit and raise earnings forecasts for the year. The results offered a stark contrast to the wave of grim economic news sweeping across Europe. Confidence in the euro-area fell to the weakest in almost 1 1/2 years as fears of energy shortages haunt consumers and businesses, and the European Central Bank’s first interest-rate increase in a more than decade feeds concerns that a recession is nearing. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also advanced after the Federal Reserve said it will slow the pace of interest-rate increases at some point. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.1%, driven by gains in material and energy stocks. Equity benchmarks in the Philippines and New Zealand led gains in the region as a weakening dollar boosted risk appetite. “The stock markets may reverse their recent falls” following the Fed’s decision, said Heo Pil-Seok, chief executive officer at Midas International Asset Management in Seoul. “Starting today, we should see if there’s any changes in foreign fund flows, as outflows have somewhat eased recently,” he said, adding however that the stock rally may be short-lived as investors remain cautious on earnings. Gains in Asia were small relative to the rally in US stocks overnight, as investors monitored the latest local earnings along with China’s property crisis and the Covid situation. Asian tech bellwether Samsung Electronics provided a weak demand forecast Thursday, citing uncertainties following a rare earnings miss. Chinese benchmarks were flat amid the Politburo meeting and a possible call between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden. Elsewhere, traders are awaiting a phone call between President Joe Biden and China’s Xi Jinping, which could touch on US tariffs and other points of tension. Japanese equities climbed, following US peers higher on relief after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points and indicated that monetary policy tightening will eventually slow down. The Topix rose 0.2% to 1,948.85 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.4% to 27,815.48 as the yen gained against the dollar, weighing on exporters such as Toyota. Recruit Holdings Co. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 4.4%. Out of 2,169 shares in the index, 1,406 rose and 652 fell, while 111 were unchanged. “It does seem as if the market bottomed out at the end of June,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, a strategist at Asset Management One. “There is a sense that a rise in interest rates is receding worldwide and stocks are also calming down along with that.” Fed Hikes by 75 Basis Points as Powell Sees No US Recession Now In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index revered a drop of 0.6% to trade higher. SEK and DKK are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, JPY maintains outperformance, trading at 135.33/USD.  The yen was around 135.40 per dollar, after strengthening more than 1% to 135.11 in Asia, extending an overnight rise to hit a three-week high. It jumped by a similar amount against the euro and the Australian dollar. In rates, Treasury yields were little changed to 3bps lower in European trading after dropping on Wednesday. The Treasury curve extended Wednesday’s post-FOMC steepening move as short end leads recovery from losses during European morning. Declines followed a large downside options trade, while gilts and bunds have underperformed over the London session. Focal points of US session include first estimate of 2Q GDP and 7-year note auction.US long-end yields remain cheaper by ~2bp while front-end and belly yields are richer on the day, steepening 2s10s by ~2bp, 5s30s by ~3bp; 10-year yields around 2.79% are little changed with bunds cheaper by ~2bp, gilts by ~4bp. Bunds lag following German regional CPI data, with national gauge due at 8am ET. German curve steepens with two-year yields lower after some state inflation gauges slow, while rates at the longer end rise. US 10-year yields are steady at 2.79%. In commodities, WTI drifts 1.7% higher to trade below $99. Spot gold rises roughly $10 to trade near $1,745/oz. Most base metals trade in the green; LME zinc rises 3%, outperforming peers. Looking the day ahead, in addition to the US GDP we get core PCE, consumption, and jobless claims in the US. In Europe, German CPI and France PPI are due with the first German regional numbers out just after we press send this morning. Our economists expect MoM CPI at +0.8% in Germany, and +0.5% on the EU harmonized MoM measure. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,011.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 428.98 MXAP up 1.0% to 160.34 MXAPJ up 0.8% to 524.61 Nikkei up 0.4% to 27,815.48 Topix up 0.2% to 1,948.85 Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 20,622.68 Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,282.58 Sensex up 1.7% to 56,792.04 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.0% to 6,889.75 Kospi up 0.8% to 2,435.27 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.98% Euro little changed at $1.0206 Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,746.23 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.18% to 106.26 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Chair Jerome Powell said the Federal Reserve will press on with the steepest tightening of monetary policy in a generation to curb surging inflation, while handing officials more flexibility on coming moves amid signs of a broadening economic slowdown. The yen catapulted higher against major peers on Thursday as lowered expectations for rate hikes caused hedge funds to cover short bets from one of the biggest global macro trades of the year. US Stocks Set to Dip After Biggest Tech Gain Since November 2020 Meta Disappoints With Forecast Miss, First-Ever Revenue Drop China Leaders Call for ‘Best’ Growth Outcome at Key Meeting US Offers Russia to Swap Jailed Basketball Star for Arms Deale US Aircraft Carrier Enters South China Sea Amid Taiwan Tensions US Offers Russia to Swap Griner and Whelan for Arms Dealer Bout Barclays Latest Bank to Make Provision for US WhatsApp Fine Yen Roars Back as Hedge Funds Cut and Run From Big Macro Short China-US Deal Needed Soon to Avoid Delistings, Gensler Says Alibaba’s Gains From Primary Listing Plan Wiped out in Two Days Samsung’s Profit Is Latest Tech Casualty to Recession Fears Senate Deal Includes EV Tax Credits Sought by Tesla, Toyota Manchin Backs $369 Billion Energy-Climate Plan, Rejects SALT A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks eventually traded higher across the board following the firm lead from Wall Street. ASX 200 saw firm gains across its Tech, Gold, and Mining sectors. Nikkei 225 gained in early trade and briefly topped the 28k mark before recoiling as the JPY saw a sudden bout of strength. KOSPI benefited from Samsung Electronics' rise post-earnings, although the firm echoed recent remarks from SK Hynix regarding weaker H2 memory demand. Hang Seng moved on either side of breakeven but later saw an upside bias as Hong Kong Finance Secretary said Hong Kong's H2 economic performance will be better than H1. Shanghai Comp eventually gained despite the recent cautious commentary from Chinese President Xi. Top Asian News Chinese Politburo says it will keep economic operations in a reasonable range. Australian Treasurer Chalmers said the final budget outcome for 2021/22 likely to show a dramatically better-than-expected outcome. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) - Q2 2022 (KRW): Revenue 772tln (Co. exp. 77tln); operating profit 14.1tln (exp. 14tln). Net profit 11.1tln (exp. 10.3tln); Chip operating profit 9.98tln (exp. 11.08tln); expects weaker H2 phone/PC memory chip demand. South Korean President Yoon has ordered to take steps against illegal activities regarding stock short selling, via Yonhap. Hong Kong Finance Secretary said Hong Kong's H2 economic performance will be better than H1; property market fundamentals remain sound. Hong Kong Monetary Chief expects overnight and one-month interbank rate to continue to rise at a much faster pace; says HKD has been stable and has been operating in an orderly manner; public should be prepared for interbank rate to climb further, via Reuters. PBoC injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos with the maintained rate of 2.10% for a net drain of CNY 1bln. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7411 vs exp. 6.7425 (prev. 6.7731). Japanese government spokesperson says there is currently no plan to impose restrictions on people's movements following increasing COVID cases; Tokyo COVID cases reach 40,406 vs. previous record of 34,995. European bourses are modestly softer, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.10%, but relatively contained now after fading initial gains from the FOMC-inspired upside. Amid numerous earnings updates from Europe & in the US aftermarket. US futures are relatively stable but continue to post modest losses with the NQ -0.8% lagging amid pre-market downside in Meta post-earnings, -6.0%. Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q2 2022 (USD): EPS 2.46 (exp. 2.59), Revenue 28.82bln (exp. 28.95bln), Advertising revenue 28.15bln (exp. 28.53bln). Outlook reflects continuation of weak advertising demand environment it experienced throughout Q2. Guidance assumes FX will be about a 6% headwind to Y/Y total revenue growth in Q3. Co. said the economic downturn will have a broad impact on digital advertising business, says the situation seems worse than it did a quarter ago. -6.0% in the pre-market. Jack Ma intends to relinquish control of Ant Group, via WSJ sources; to transfer some voting power to executives, could push-back IPO timing by over a year. Top European News German consumer energy bill to increase by EUR 1k/year, following a cost shift, via Bloomberg; Effective from October 1st, via Reuters sources; levy will cover 90% of costs. Subsequently, German Economy Minister says the gas level would cost several hundred EURs per household. India to Restart Ukraine Sunflower Oil Imports as Trade Eases Wind, Solar Stocks Surge After US Energy Bill Agreement Vanguard Europe MD Says Climate Is Now ‘the Most Material Risk’ Schroders Up; Jefferies Says Results Show Resilience of Platform EDF Posts $1.3 Billion Loss as State Readies Nationalization Turkey Raises 2022 Inflation Forecast to 60.4% on Imports, Lira Central Banks BoJ Deputy Governor Amamiya said we must not loosen our grip in keeping monetary policy easy as there is no prospect yet of sustainably meeting the 2% inflation target. He added that consumer sentiment has been worsening due to rising energy and food prices. BoJ must be vigilant to financial and forex moves and their impact on economy and prices. ECB's Visco refrains from saying whether markets should expect a 25bps or 50bps hike in September; not prepared to say the ECB would go for 50bps in September in order to reach its target quicker. Adds, the ECB doesn't really know where its target is. BoK to strengthen monitoring of FX and capital flows following the FOMC hike, according to Bloomberg. HKMA raised its base rate by 75bps to 2.75%, as expected, following the earlier Fed rate hike. NBH hikes the one-week deposit rate to 10.75% (prev. 9.75%) at tender. CBRT Governor says the bank has enough FX reserves to meet high energy costs and reserves continue to increase. FX Fed leaves Dollar in limbo with no firm forward guidance and reliant on unfolding macro fundamentals, DXY depressed within 106.580-050 range vs pre-FOMC high of 107.430. Yen outperforms on prospect of less BoJ vs Fed policy divergence, USD/JPY sub-135.50 and key Fib level. Kiwi outpaces Aussie as NZ business outlook and activity turn less downbeat, while Australian retail sales miss consensus and slow to softest pace in 2022 so far; AUD/NZD retreats through 1.1150 as AUD/USD and NZD/USD hover just under 0.7000 and 0.6300 respectively. Pound extends gains against Euro through 0.8400 and chart trend line, but both fade from post-FOMC peaks vs Buck, Cable unable to reach 1.2200 and EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.0200. Lira and Forint flounder irrespective of supportive CBRT rhetoric and NBH raising 1-week deposit rate by 100bp, USD/TRY touches 17.9300 in wake of jump in year end Turkish CPI forecast and EUR/HUF approaches 408.00. Fixed Income Bonds remain volatile post-Fed, but curve steepening the clear trend as markets reset rate expectations to data rather than forward guidance. Bunds choppy within wide 154.75-155.87 extremes, Gilts between 116.70-117.19 parameters and T-note from 119-23+ to 120-08+. US Treasuries also conscious of looming 7 year supply after potentially pivotal Q2 GDP and jobless claims. Commodities WTI and Brent are firmer by over 1.5% on the session after spending much of the European morning relatively contained. European gas prices are significantly more contained when compared to price action earlier in the week but remain at elevated levels comfortably above EUR 200/MWh for TTF. Gazprom continues shipping gas to Europe via Ukraine, Thursday's volume is 42.1MCM (vs Monday's 42.2MCM). Shell (SHEL LN) has cut gas use at the Rotterdam Pernis (404k BPD) facility by 40% and at German sites by ~70%, due to the ongoing gas situation. India's gold demand in H2 is seen falling Y/Y due to lower disposable income; H1 gold demand rose 42% Y/Y, according to World Gold Council. Magnitude 6.3 earthquake hits Tocopilla in Chile, according to the EMS; 5.5 magnitude earthquake occurs near Nicaragua coast, via EMSC. Nornickel Q2 production: Nickel 48k tonnes, Palladium 709/koz, via Reuters. Spot gold is bid by just over USD 10/oz but, again, remains subject to USD action as while the index is bid it has dipped markedly. Amidst the USD’s relative weakness, base metals are similarly supported. US Event Calendar 08:30: 2Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 0.5%, prior -1.6% Personal Consumption, est. 1.2%, prior 1.8% PCE Core QoQ, est. 4.4%, prior 5.2% GDP Price Index, est. 8.0%, prior 8.2% 08:30: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 250,000, prior 251,000 Continuing Claims, est. 1.39m, prior 1.38m 11:00: July Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 4, prior 12 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Just before the June FOMC, the surprise last minute leak that the Fed were about to hike rates by 75bps shocked yields much higher and equities much lower. However last night's routine 75bps July FOMC hike was cheered to the rafters by the equity market with yields also falling, especially at the front end. So how times change! Today we could see confirmation of the start of a technical recession in US with Q2 GDP out, and also German CPI which might show some signs of falling before we think it hits new highs again in the autumn. So a busy day. Back to the Fed and the expected 75bps hike brings the rate into territory that some Committee members may deem ‘neutral’ (Our full US econ review, here). The statement maintained guidance that the Committee sees further rate hikes, and thus moves into restrictive territory, as appropriate, even as the statement opened by acknowledging that some activity data had softened. Nothing in the statement came as a particular surprise, leaving equities and rates little changed upon release with the bulk of the rally after the press conference started. At the press conference, the Chair left open the possibility of another super-charged 75bp hike (or larger) in September, but demurred on providing forward guidance, saying that the Committee would be making policy decisions on a meeting-per-meeting basis. A tacit acceptance of what they have already been doing, to an extent. Nevertheless, the Chair did note that the SEP from June, that shows policy getting to between 3% and 3.5% by the end of year, and a terminal rate of 3.8% was probably still the best guide for the path of policy. Despite the continued insistence on more hikes being necessary, and inflation being much too high, markets instead latched onto the fact that the Committee was cognisant of the signs of slowing growth in the economy, and that the Fed would logically slow the path of tightening at some point. Upon this, markets priced in a shallower policy path, which saw 2yr Treasuries -5.5bps lower on the day, with 10yr yields down -2.2bps, and no more rate hikes in 2023 after hitting a terminal rate of 3.3%. What was left unsaid is that slowing growth has to translate to slowing inflation for the FOMC to pivot policy. That cuts are being priced in within six months when inflation is still climbing from lofty levels seems too optimistic. However this very much fits it with the current market narrative so this doesn't feel the time to fight it. That optimistic pricing path drove US equities through the roof after the FOMC, with the NASDAQ ending the day +4.06% higher, climbing around +1.58% after the FOMC events, it’s best daily return since April 2020, while the FANG+ was up +5.30%, its best day in two months. Tech stocks outperformed given the sensitivity of their valuations to rate policy, but the broad S&P 500 climbed +2.62% as well, with every sector in the green. After the FOMC, Meta missed analyst estimates, posting its first ever decline in sales over a quarter, and traded around -4.5% lower in after-hours trading. In the release the company also noted hiring has slowed this year much like its other mega cap brethren. This morning, S&P 500 futures are trading -0.14% lower, with Meta having taken some shine out of the post-FOMC glow. Elsewhere overnight, Senator Joe Manchin reportedly reached a deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on a tax and spending plan focused on climate spending, capping health care costs, while raising additional tax revenue. This will be a huge story out of Washington heading into the fall midterms, and the overall impact of the bill – which is being structured to pass through the reconciliation process and thus with a simple majority – will be assessed over coming days as more people get eyes on it. An announcement that came out of the blue after Senator Manchin shot down reconciliation efforts in light of growing inflation time and again. One we will surely be talking about more over the near-term. Ahead of the FOMC, equities were higher on both sides of the Atlantic on buoyant sentiment following optimistic forecasts from tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet the night before. European equities closed modestly higher across the board, with the STOXX 600 closing up +0.47%, the DAX +0.53% higher, and the CAC up +0.75%. The big focus in Europe remained on the gas situation. A German government spokesperson acknowledged there had been a reduction of gas supplies from Russia and noted there was no technical reason for Russia to cut supplies. European natural gas futures climbed another +2.54% on the day to €205. Core European and Treasury yield curves were flatter heading into the Fed, with 2yr bund yields climbing +8.7bps and 10yr bunds +2.0bps higher to 0.94%. The spread widening in BTPs continued, with 10yr BTPs +5.5bps wider to bunds at 236bps, just under 5bps from their widest levels reached in mid-June. Meanwhile, Treasury yields were lower across the curve, with the curve even more inverted. The data out before the Fed was never going to be the main driver of rates on the day, and they painted a mixed picture. Housing continued its torrid run, with pending home sales down -8.6% MoM versus expectations of -1.0%. Meanwhile, Durable Goods Orders expanded 1.9% versus -0.4% expectations, while inventories increased 1.9% as well versus 1.5% expectations. Those data helped some GDP trackers, with the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast for 2Q GDP increasing to -1.2% from -1.6% following the data. We get the first advance reading of US 2Q GDP today, but know today’s reading will be subject to many revisions before we have the final figure. 10yr TSY yields are little changed at 2.78% as we go to press this morning. Brent crude futures climbed +2.13% to $107/bbl, following EIA data that showed inventories fell by 4.52mln barrels, while demand for gasoline in the US looks more robust than some recent survey measures have suggested, putting more upward pressure on energy. Finally, a Biden aide said the Iran deal was not likely to return in the near future, effectively keeping potential additional supply from hitting the market for longer. Asian equity markets are trading higher this morning following the Fed. Stocks in mainland China are gaining with the Shanghai Composite (+0.89%) and the CSI (+0.95%) both up whilst the Nikkei (+0.32%), the Hang Seng (+0.20%) and the Kospi (+0.97%) all edging higher. Early morning data showed that retail sales in Australia rose +0.2% m/m in June, its slowest pace this year and down from May’s downwardly revised +0.7% pace of growth and falling short of markets expectations of a +0.5% increase. The soft data represents that soaring inflation and rising interest rates may be finally hampering consumer demand. To the day ahead, in addition to the US GDP we get core PCE, consumption, and jobless claims in the US. In Europe, German CPI and France PPI are due with the first German regional numbers out just after we press send this morning. Our economists expect MoM CPI at +0.8% in Germany, and +0.5% on the EU harmonized MoM measure. Tyler Durden Thu, 07/28/2022 - 08:04.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJul 28th, 2022

Futures Tumble As Dollar Hits Record High; JPM, Morgan Stanley Slide

Futures Tumble As Dollar Hits Record High; JPM, Morgan Stanley Slide US futures were already sliding fast as the reality of the Fed's upcoming 100bps rate hike was fully appreciated by the market, as even Goldman was shocked by the kneejerk move higher yesterday, saying "Does it makes sense for mkt to move higher after a 9.1% print and BOC hiking by 100bps...of course not...but that was max pain trade today and this market seeks max pain." Well, this morning the max pain was clearly lower, as US equity futures fell along with stocks in Europe and Asian, while the Bloomberg dollar index rose to a record Thursday, surpassing the record hit during the covid 2020 crash when the Fed launched unlimited swap lines to ease the global dollar crunch... ... after high US inflation hardened expectations for more aggressive Federal Reserve monetary tightening that could trigger a recession. S&P 500 futures tumbled more than 1%, down almost 200 points since Friday, as the US second-quarter earnings season got underway. All risk assets were lower, as well as gold and oil, while all non-USD currencies are getting steamrolled by the relentless surge in the dollar. 10Y yields dropped to 2.93% after rising just shy of 3.00% overnight. The inversion between two-year and 10-year yields -- a potential recession indicator -- is the deepest since 2000 But wait there's more, because while markets are freaking out over soaring inflation, Fed hikes and crashing earnings, Europe is about to enter the 9th circle of hell: France's Macron warns that citizens and companies will need to reduce energy usage as Germany reports that gas storage is already being withdrawn, even before peak usage in the winter. Meanwhile, Italian bonds and banks are tumbling amid speculation Mario Draghi’s government is about to collapse as coalition partner Five Star threatens to pull out. Looking at premarket movers, JPMorgan plunged more than 5% in premarket trading after reporting results that missed analyst  expectations. Tesla also dipped after the company’s top artificial-intelligence executive and an architect of its Autopilot self-driving system announced plans to depart the maker of electric vehicles and as Morgan Stanley makes “material” cuts to its forecasts across its auto portfolio. Some other notable premarket movers: Theravance Biopharma (TBPH US) shares jump as much as 25% in premarket trading after the biotech firm agrees to sell royalty interests in Trelegy Ellipta to Royalty Pharma. ContraFect (CFRX US) sinks as much as 77% in US premarket trading after the biotech company said that the Data Safety Monitoring Board recommended stopping its Exebacase phase 3 study. Netflix’s (NFLX US) decision to pick Microsoft (MSFT US) as a technology and sales partner for its new advertising-supported streaming service was a surprise to the industry. Analysts say the move makes sense. Netflix slips 1% in premarket trading, Microsoft -0.9%. As discussed yesterday, Fed officials will be debating a historic one percentage-point rate hike later this month in an attempt to combat inflation. Markets price in 69% odds that the Fed will raise interest rates by 100 basis points when it meets July 26-27, which would be the largest increase since the Fed started directly using overnight interest rates to conduct monetary policy in the early 1990s. Technology stocks will be in focus as higher rates mean a bigger discount for the present value of future profits, hurting growth stocks with the highest valuations. A 100 basis points hike is now likely and the “inflation reading should also raise the odds of recession, which we now estimate is likely sooner rather than later and possibly more severe,” said Tiffany Wilding, an economist at Pacific Investment Management Co. “The market has already priced in the unexpected extreme tightening, so there isn’t that much more the Fed can do to prepare the markets,” said Mehvish Ayub, a senior strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “We need to position portfolios accordingly and expect volatility to continue as it has since the beginning of the year,” she said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “It is clear that central banks around the world are laser-focused on fighting the entrenched inflation they helped to create, growth-be-damned,” said Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific Ltd. “US markets are pricing in faster Fed tightening, and a recession is on the way imminently.” In Europe, the Stoxx 50 index slumped 1.2%. DAX outperforms peers, dropping 0.9%, FTSE MIB lags, dropping 2.3%. Miners, energy and telecoms are the worst-performing Stoxx 600 sectors. Here are the biggest European movers: Ericsson tumbles as much as 12% to the lowest level since March 2020, after a mixed quarterly report with revenue ahead of expectations but margin and earnings missing estimates. Sabre Insurance plunged more than 30% after warning that everything related to an insurance claim -- the car parts, paint, labor and the cost of replacing the vehicle -- has risen faster than expected. Peers Admiral and Direct Line dropped 13% and 7.9%, respectively. Hugo Boss shares rise as much as 3.2% to the highest since late February after what analysts say was a “blow- out” second-quarter for the luxury apparel firm. Entain rises as much as 5.2%, rallying after last week’s heavy losses, as the owner of the Ladbrokes and Coral betting brands publishes a video updating on the progress of Enlabs since last year’s acquisition of the firm. Technogym shares fall as much as 6.8% as Goldman Sachs cuts its PT on the Italian gym-equipment maker on a weaker medium-term growth outlook and low visibility on near- term consumption patterns. Acciona slumped after newspaper Expansion said the Spanish government is analyzing 16 companies, including renewable unit Acciona Energia, to impose a new windfall profit levy announced earlier in the week. Storebrand rises as much as 4% in Oslo trading after second-quarter pretax profit beat the average analyst estimate. SBB posted a surprise pretax loss and the Swedish property company’s stock price tumbled as much as 17%. SEB shares gain as much as 4.7% in early European trading after the lender posted 2Q earnings that showed higher deposit margins and decent loan growth, Handelsbanken writes in a note. Hunting’s steep slide since its June 30 trading update offers a good entry point, Berenberg writes in note, upgrading the stock to buy from hold. Hunting shares up as much as 7.1%. Asian stocks declined, as markets in Singapore and the Philippines fell after surprise monetary tightening by the two Southeast Asian nations, while Chinese bank shares weighed amid a property crisis.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.6%, with the financials gauge weighing the most on the measure. Ping An Insurance was the single biggest drag, leading a fall among Chinese lenders as home buyers in China refused to pay mortgages on delayed construction projects.    Shares in Singapore and Manila declined after local monetary authorities unexpectedly tightened policy rates to tackle inflation. Their declines helped put a key Southeast Asian equities gauge on track for a bear market. Taiwan’s benchmark rose for a second day after a government support pledge, while Chinese tech firms also climbed.   The region’s mixed performance comes as investors continue to digest the prospect of a recession on hardened expectations of more aggressive Federal Reserve monetary tightening after sizzling US inflation data. Traders in Asia also are waiting for Friday’s release of China’s second-quarter GDP growth figure.  “Even while central banks in most of the rest of the world are moving in one direction, here in Asia we’ve got a very, very large player doing something different,” said Alexander Treves, head of investment specialists for Asia Pacific equities at JPMorgan Asset Management, referring to China in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “The government has got quite ambitious growth targets for this year and it might be they don’t meet them but they are going to try very, very hard to stimulate in that direction.” The higher-than-expected consumer prices data from the US overnight was “lagged bad news,” according to David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.  “But we do expect lagged good news in the coming months, with energy prices diving lower, food prices cooling and consumer demand stepping back,” Kelly wrote in a note. “This should provide some inflation relief to the Fed and consumers, and hopefully lead sentiment to recover from its record-lows.” Japanese equities erased earlier losses as the yen weakened after US inflation data hardened expectations of more aggressive Federal Reserve monetary tightening.  The Topix index closed 0.2% higher at 1,893.13 in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.6% to 26,643.39. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 3.5%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,229 rose and 803 fell, while 138 were unchanged. “The weak yen and continuation of monetary easing in Japan, which is completely different from the situation in the US and Europe, will help to support stock prices,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management.  Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.4% to close at 6,650.60, climbing for a third session. Miners contributed the most to the benchmark’s gain. EML Payments was the top performer, bouncing back after three days of losses. Lake Resources was the biggest laggard after responding to a short-seller report. Investors also assessed jobs data. Australia’s hiring boom gathered pace in June, sending the unemployment rate to the lowest in almost 50 years and bolstering the case for a supersized interest rate hike next month.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.7% to 11,187.97 India’s benchmark equity index erased early gains to close at its lowest level in more than a week as shares of technology firms Infosys and TCS weighed.  The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.2% to 53,416.15 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by the same magnitude. Axis Bank was the worst performer on the Sensex, which saw 17 of its 30 member stocks trading lower. India’s biggest technology company TCS fell to the lowest level since March last year, setting the pace for a tech selloff.  India’s headline inflation rose 15.18% compared to last year, which was below estimates for the first time since June 2021. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by around 0.5% hitting an all time high, as the greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers. AUD and DKK are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, JPY and CAD underperform. COP (+3%), RUB (+1.4%) lead gains in EMFX. The euro fluctuated, but held above parity. An early decline in the face of widespread dollar demand paused at buy orders from a reserve manager based in Asia seeking to diversify away from the greenback, according to Asia-based FX traders. One-week volatility in euro-dollar rallied as the tenor now captures the next ECB decision on July 21, the same day when a key Russian gas pipeline is scheduled to reopen. German and UK short-end bonds fell, led by the front-end, underperforming on their curves as money markets cranked up ECB and BOE rate-hike wagers for a second day. Investors were dumping Italian assets as political turmoil puts Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government at risk of collapse and complicates efforts by the European Central Bank to support the market. Swedish 2-year bonds slumped after inflation rose faster than forecast in June. The yen approached 140 per dollar as the currency is decoupling from its close relationship with US bonds amid a broad rally in the dollar. In rates, the treasuries curve extends Wednesday’s flattening move with 2s10s spread reaching -27bp during European morning, as political turmoil in Italy has investors dumping its bonds. US yields cheaper by up to 5bp in front end and belly of the curve, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by ~2bp and ~5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 2.95%, cheaper by ~3bp vs Wednesday’s close; Italian bonds underperform by more 20bp in the sector. In front end, investors continue to anticipate front-loaded and aggressive Fed hikes to peak by year-end; swaps price 92bp of hikes into the July policy meeting and 213bp of additional hikes into the December FOMC, where policy rate is expected to peak.  Bund, and gilt curves bear-flatten; UST 2s10s yield-curve inversion deepens. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund adding 9.7bps to 209.2bps. Bitcoin is bid but has reverted below the USD 20k mark once more, despite a brief foray to USD 20.4k initial highs. In commodities, crude futures decline. WTI trades within Wednesday’s range, falling 2.3% to trade near $94.08. Brent falls 1.9% near $97.66. Most base metals trade in the red; LME nickel falls 5.1%, underperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $19 to trade near $1,717/oz. Spot silver loses 1.4% near $19. To the day ahead now, data releases include the US PPI reading for June and the weekly initial jobless claims. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Waller and the ECB’s Centeno. Earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley. The European Commission will be publishing their latest economic forecasts, and UK Conservative MPs will hold another ballot on their next leader. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.9% to 3,768.75 MXAP down 0.6% to 154.55 MXAPJ down 0.2% to 510.23 Nikkei up 0.6% to 26,643.39 Topix up 0.2% to 1,893.13 Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 20,751.21 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,281.74 Sensex down 0.4% to 53,290.44 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 6,650.62 Kospi down 0.3% to 2,322.32 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 409.97 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.24% Euro down 0.4% to $1.0023 Gold spot down 1.0% to $1,717.77 US Dollar Index up 0.57% to 108.57 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The three-month euribor’s seven-year foray in to negative territory ended as money markets prepared for the ECB’s first rate hike in more than a decade Italy’s Five Star Movement will refuse to back Mario Draghi’s government in a confidence vote on Thursday, raising the prospect that the prime minister offers to resign, potentially leading to an early election. A financial- market crisis focused on Italy might augur the worst turmoil in the history of the euro Singapore’s central bank unexpectedly tightened monetary policy on Thursday, its second surprise move this year, as rising inflation fanned the risk of economic contraction China will take further measures to stabilize employment as the country grapples with a flagging economy battered by the Covid-19 pandemic and a crumbling real-estate market Chinese regulators have been asked to exercise greater caution when it comes to reviewing new overseas spending and investment plans amid concerns among senior leaders that higher US interest rates could spur capital outflows, according to people familiar with the matter The euro area’s rebound from the pandemic will be weaker than anticipated while inflation will be faster because of Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to draft projections by the European Commission Central banks across the globe are speeding up interest-rate hikes, seeking to crush an inflation surge partly of their own making. Wednesday saw Canada’s central bank hike a greater-than-expected full percentage point following two half-point moves, South Korea raise by a half point after several quarter-point moves, and New Zealand increase by a half point for a third straight meeting A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-pac stocks mostly traded with cautious gains after the recent hotter-than-expected US inflation data which printed at a fresh 40-year high and spurred hawkish market pricing with Fed Fund Rate futures leaning towards a 100bps Fed rate hike this month. ASX 200 was kept afloat amid strength in the commodity-related sectors although gains were capped as blockbuster jobs data raised the odds for the RBA to deliver a more aggressive 75bps hike at its next meeting. Nikkei 225 outperformed its major counterparts on the back of further currency depreciation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were initially pressured by weakness in the property sector although the downside in the broader market was cushioned and eventually reversed after recent policy support pledges in which the PBoC said it will step up support for the real economy and deepen interest rate reforms. STI and PSEi were the laggards and traded in the red after both the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Philippines Central Bank tightened their monetary policies in unscheduled announcements. Top Asian News Tokyo is expected to raise the COVID warning to its highest level, according to FNN. Monetary Authority of Singapore announced to re-centre the mid-point of the SGD NEER policy band up to the prevailing level in an unscheduled meeting, while there was no change to the slope and width of the band. MAS said the move is to help slow the momentum of inflation and that inflation pressures are to remain elevated in months ahead, while it is appropriate to further tighten monetary policy further. Philippines Central Bank raised its key rates by 75bps to 3.25% in an unscheduled policy decision. Philippines Central Bank Governor said they recognised that a significant further tightening of monetary policy was warranted by sustained broadening price pressures, while they are ready to take further action and said the economy can accommodate further tightening. Chinese authorities reportedly met with banks regarding the mortgage payment boycott, according to Bloomberg sources European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%, but off worst levels while the FTSE MIB -1.9% languishes on domestic turmoil. Sectors are essentially all in the red with Tech giving up its initial TSMC-driven strength and succumbing to risk/yield moves. Stateside, futures are off lows but in-fitting European benchmarks awaiting guidance from the key banking names due to report imminently. TSMC (2330 TT) Q2 (TWD): Net Profit 237bln (exp. 219bln), Revenue 534bln (prev. 372bln YY), Operating Income 262bln (prev. 145bln YY); excess inventory in chip supply will take a few quarters to rebalance; expect capacity to remain tight this year; expects some capex this year to be pushed into next year due to tool supply issues. 2022 Capex closer to the lower end of prior guidance of USD 40-44bln. 2023 will see more of a typical downcycle in chip demand, unlike the large downcycle in 2008. Intel (INTC) has reportedly informed customers it will increase prices on a majority of its microprocessors and peripheral chip products later this year, citing rising costs, via Nikkei; Increases have not been finalized, likely to range from a minimal single-digit increase to over 10% or 20% in some cases, according to sources. Top European News The first round of the Conservative leadership ballot saw Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, Tugendhat, Badenoch, and Braverman make it to the next round, while Hunt and Zahawi were eliminated. Italy's 5-Star leader Conte said the party will not participate in the confidence vote on Thursday, according to Reuters. EU draft report cut 2022 EU GDP forecast to 2.6% from 2.8% and for 2023 to 1.4% from 2.3%. FX Yen yields to inevitable further widening in BoJ/Fed policy rates as markets place 2/3 probability on 100bp July FOMC hike; USD/JPY jumps through 139.00 towards October 1998 peak at 139.50, but pares back below 1.48bln option expiry interest at the round number. DXY rebounds firmly after post-US CPI retreat to set new YTD peak before fading, index tops out at 108.650 vs 108.190 bottom and 107.470 midweek low. Loonie loses all and more BoC boost as oil tanks, USD/CAD close to 1.3100 compared to Wednesday's sub-1.2950 trough. Euro is still defiant above parity vs the Buck but facing Italian political risk via a vote of no confidence. Aussie underpinned by upbeat labour market report and more speculation that China may lift embargo on coal, UAD/USD holds around 0.6750. Kiwi flanked by decent option expiry interest either side of 0.6100. Yuan unable to avoid broad Dollar revival, as CNH slips under 200 WMA circa 6.7330. Fixed Income Debt under renewed pressure post-US CPI as 100bp hike odds continue to shorten and keep curves in bear-flattening mode Bunds down to 151.21 from 153.01 at best, Gilts reverse from 116.05-115.14 and 10-year T-note retreats to 118-10+ from 118-30 Italian bonds underperform awaiting no-confidence vote in PM Draghi's coalition Government Commodities The complex is broadly pressured amid the general risk tone and ongoing USD strength, crude benchmarks lower by over USD 2.00/bbl. China is said to be mulling ending the Australian coal ban on Russian supply fears, according to Bloomberg. White House Economic Adviser Rouse said President Biden is focused on getting more oil into the market and his Saudi visit will help get more oil into the market. Spot gold is dented on the USD move which is far outweighing any possible haven allure thus far; base metals broadly lower. US Event Calendar 08:30: June PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 10.7%, prior 10.8%; MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8% 08:30: June PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 8.2%, prior 8.3%; MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5% 08:30: June PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, est. 6.6%, prior 6.8%; MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5% 08:30: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 235,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.38m, prior 1.38m DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap There are just 9 days to go until the happiest day of my life. It’ll be the most expensive too but I’m trying not to dwell on that. However, the final balances were all paid at the weekend, so I’ve figured that in purely accounting terms the wedding is now a sunk cost. For those who’ve been asking, preparation is going well. At long last we finally chose our first dance with less than a month to spare. But there’s still a few more things left on the agenda, including wearing in my new shoes. So if you saw a guy walking to the supermarket yesterday evening in casual summer clothes with oddly formal footwear, that might have been me. For markets, the agenda yesterday was set by another stronger-than-expected US CPI print, which led to a sizeable reaction across asset classes as investors pondered whether it might lead the Fed to move even more aggressively than anticipated. In terms of the details, there wasn’t much good news at all for those hoping to see signs of weaker price pressures, with the headline CPI reading coming in at a monthly +1.3% in June (vs. +1.1% expected), which is the highest monthly reading since September 2005. There was little respite on core CPI either, which came in at its fastest in a year at +0.7% (vs. +0.5% expected). And on top of that, the Cleveland Fed’s Trimmed-Mean measure (which removes the biggest outliers in either direction) rose to +0.80% on the month, which is the fastest since that series began in 1983, and just shows how broad inflationary pressures have become. Thanks to the strength of the monthly print, year-on-year CPI rose to its highest level since 1981, at +9.1% (vs. +8.8% expected). And in turn, that’s led to serious speculation among investors that the Fed could hike by 100bps at their next meeting, which would be even faster than the 75bps we saw in June that itself was the biggest hike since 1994. Fed funds futures for the July meeting are pricing in a growing chance of that, with the hike being priced for that meeting going up from +74.5bps on Tuesday to +90.7bps by the close yesterday, to +92.0bps this morning. So that’s noticeably closer to 100bps than 75bps now. We did hear from a few Fed speakers yesterday after the release, including Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who said that “Everything is in play”, whilst Cleveland Fed President Mester referred to the report as “uniformly bad – there was no good news in that report at all”. All eyes will be on the remaining FOMC speakers over the next couple of days and what they have to say about a potential 100bps move. Remember this is also the last chance we’ll get to hear from them ahead of the decision, since the blackout period ahead of their next meeting begins on Saturday. With investors pricing in an increasingly front-loaded hiking cycle by the Fed, that led to a further bout of yield curve steepening, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +10.6bps to 3.15%, whilst the 10yr yield came down -3.5bps to 2.93%. That left the 2s10s yield curve at an inverted -22.7bps, which is the most inverted that it’s been at any point in this cycle, and this morning it’s inverted even further to -24.9bps, which is the most inverted since 2000. The prospect that the Fed might make a larger than expected move was only bolstered by what then happened in Canada, where the central bank hiked by a surprise +100bps that marked their most rapid increase since 1998. In his statement, BoC Governor Macklem said that “By front-loading interest rate increases now, we are trying to avoid the need for ever higher interest rates down the road”. After the CPI release came out, the prospect of more aggressive tightening from the Fed sent the Euro down to parity against the dollar for the first time since 2002, hitting an intraday low of $0.9998, although it’s since recovered and is trading this morning at $1.0033. To be fair, the CPI report was merely the catalyst for the final move lower, since the Euro’s decline had been building for some time, not least with the threat of a Russian gas cut-off looming. As our FX strategists have pointed out, parity in itself is more psychologically significant rather than economically significant, but the significant weakening over recent weeks will add to inflationary pressures, and an ECB spokesman said that although the ECB “does not target a particular exchange rate”, they mentioned how “we are always attentive to the impact of the exchange rate on inflation, in line with our mandate for price stability”. In spite of the turbulence elsewhere, US equities managed to avoid a major slump yesterday, with the S&P 500 recovering from its initial losses of -1.56% to only close -0.45% lower. Meanwhile the NASDAQ (-0.15%) managed to modestly outperform, as did the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.12%). In Europe however, there was a much weaker performance and the STOXX 600 shed -1.01% along with other indices on the continent, including German’s DAX (-1.16%). Sovereign bond yields also moved higher across much of the Euro Area, with those on 10yr bunds (+1.1bps), OATs (+1.1bps) and BTPs (+2.4bps) all rising on the day. Overnight in Asia, equity markets have fluctuating this morning with the major indices opening lower before recovering. As we go to press, the Nikkei (+0.70%), the Hang Seng (+0.17%), Shanghai Composite (+0.31%), CSI (+0.44%) and Kospi (+0.10%) are all in positive territory. Meanwhile in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.45%) has also gained following the release of strong employment data, with the unemployment rate down to a post-1974 low of 3.5% in June (vs. 3.8% expected). Looking forward however, US equity futures have posted modest losses in early trading with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.10%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.17%) slightly lower. Otherwise overnight, oil prices have rebounded somewhat, with Brent Crude moving just back above $100/bbl. Here in the UK, we had the first ballot of MPs in the Conservative leadership contest yesterday, which will also decide the country’s next Prime Minister. Of the 8 candidates on the ballot, former Chancellor Rishi Sunak came out on top with 88 votes, followed by trade minister Penny Mordaunt on 67 votes, and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss on 50 votes. At the other end, both former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi were eliminated for not achieving the 30 votes required, so there are just 6 candidates left now. Today will see another ballot take place, and the candidate with the lowest votes will be eliminated. Looking at yesterday’s other data, UK GDP grew by +0.5% in May (vs. +0.1% expected), and the decline in April was positively revised to show a -0.2% contraction (vs. -0.3% previously). Separately in the Euro Area, industrial production in May grew by +0.8% (vs. +0.3% expected). To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US PPI reading for June and the weekly initial jobless claims. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Waller and the ECB’s Centeno. Earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley. The European Commission will be publishing their latest economic forecasts, and UK Conservative MPs will hold another ballot on their next leader.   Tyler Durden Thu, 07/14/2022 - 08:24.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJul 14th, 2022

Bitcoin might be on another precipice. A technical analyst says another crash could be coming for the world"s biggest crypto.

The biggest story today in markets is cryptocurrency's downturn and bitcoin's potential plunge — not to mention top stock picks from experts. Happy Friday readers. Phil Rosen here — boy am I glad to see you today.As a final send-off before the long weekend, I wanted to share some more chipper news…But in a bear market that's harder to come by. So instead, I'll be explaining the crypto downturn, and why a top analyst says bitcoin still has plenty of room to fall (even though it just sagged below $19,000 yesterday). Here we go. Programming note: There will be no newsletter on Monday, the Fourth of July. Enjoy the long weekend. If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. Download Insider's app here.Bitcoin tumbled to well below $20,000 over the weekend, before rebounding somewhat on Monday.Anadolu Agency/Getty Images1. The world's biggest crypto might be just getting started — with its dramatic decline, that is. According to Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton, bitcoin's negative momentum points to another 27% fall as it tests a key support level. "Bitcoin has stabilized after a reaction to short-term oversold indications last week, supporting a short-term neutral bias within a bearish long-term trend," Stockton said.On Thursday, bitcoin slipped about 5% to sag below $19,000. If the crypto breaks the $18,300 support level, Stockton said it could freefall all the way to its 2019 highs of about $13,900.Bitcoin's nosedive and the subsequent rout in the wider crypto space has spurred a series of implosions that have rippled through the market this year. Most recently, hedge fund Three Arrows Capital defaulted on a $670 million loan comprising roughly 15,000 bitcoin and $350 million in stablecoin USDC. Meanwhile, crypto exchange CoinFlex this week was the latest in a spate of firms announcing that it would halt customer withdrawal as it deals with a $47 million bad debt. Shaky investor confidence has sparked a wave of deleveraging in the sector. Retail investors are scaling back their margin accounts, and miners are selling bitcoin after using it as leverage to expand their operations. However, there are some analysts who believe the deleveraging cycle is nearing its end.Companies in the space have taken a big hit, but giants like Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX are seeing opportunities. According to reports, Bankman-Fried's crypto exchange is in talks to buy beleaguered crypto lender BlockFi. Citing a source, CNBC said FTX is expected to pay roughly $25 million, 99% below BlockFi's last private valuation. BlockFi's CEO, Zac Prince, however, took to Twitter to comment on the report. It comes after The Block reported that FTX was also interested in making a deal with Celsius, but walked away because of the state of its finances.Vladimir Putin's Russia managed to avoid default on Tuesday.Alexander Demyanchuk/AP2. US stock futures fell early Friday, after the S&P 500 closed out its worst first half of a year since 1970. You can see the latest market moves here. 3. On the docket: Nomad Holdings Ltd., Weathernews Inc., and more all reporting. Plus, look out for the ISM report on business manufacturing PMI, expected from the Institute for Supply Management at 9:00 am ET. 4. These are the stocks set to outperform in a market struggling to deal with recession risks and high inflation. That's according to UBS analysts, who said the uncertain market can present risks. See their list of 33 companies. 5. Analysts are forecasting that Bed Bath & Beyond has another 50% to fall. The stock's "dumpster fire" first quarter means its days could be numbered. As one analyst put it: "We are in the end days."6. RBC's commodities chief said oil prices could be set to rise further thanks to OPEC struggles and higher demand. The oil cartel lacks additional supplies to meet the call for more output, the analyst said, and China's economic reopening will push demand higher. Here's what you want to know. 7. A top Indian company paid for Russian coal in yuan. And traders said more buyers could turn to China's currency for deals with Moscow, according to a Reuters report. One trader said he had never heard of an Indian firm paying in yuan for international trade in his entire 25 year career.8. A retiree who ditched his job at the age of 26 explained how he built an investment portfolio he could live off of. His annual withdrawal rate remains below the stock market's average growth — and he shared which funds he bought and how he allows his holdings to grow. 9. After an abrupt break in the recent rally, Evercore broke down its top stock picks. Julian Emanual said bear market rallies are treacherous, but they're large and powerful enough for investors to trade profitably. These are the firm's 18 names it's eyeing — and it shared one options trade set to profit. Andy Kiersz/Insider10. It's starting to look like inflation has finally peaked. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, cooled more than expected in May. Take a look at the new economic data.Keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out The Refresh from Insider, a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. Listen here.Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn).Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJul 1st, 2022

Futures Rebound, Yen Crashes To End Turbulent Week On $3.4 Trillion Quad-Witch Day

Futures Rebound, Yen Crashes To End Turbulent Week On $3.4 Trillion Quad-Witch Day Ending a rollercoaster - but mostly lower - week for risk assets around the globe which saw the Fed hike the most since 1994, a shock Swiss National Bank hike and the latest boost in UK borrowing costs, as well as a bevy of central banks surprising hawkishly, stocks in Europe finally rebounded after hitting an 18 month low earlier this week, while US equity futures were bid Friday after a rout triggered by fears of recession pushed the S&P into a bear market on Monday. S&P futures rose 1% and Nasdaq futures rebounded 1.2% signaling steadier sentiment compared with Thursday’s plunge in US shares to the lowest since late 2020, after the BOJ refused to change its Yield Curve Control conditions, sending the Yen plunging, and helping the dollar snap two days of losses as Treasury yields were flat with the 10Y around 3.21%. The Stoxx Europe 600 index jumped about 1.2% after hitting its lowest level in more than a year. Friday also brings an absolutely massive triple-witching, and although Bloomberg believes that the roughly $3.2 trillion in options expiry may lead to short covering, which could bring temporary relief for the stock market... ... we disagree, as the bulk of open interest is around 4,100 or several hundred points above spot, meaning moves today will have little impact on "derivative tails wagging the dog." In any case, absent a massive 5% rally today which sends stocks into the green, the S&P is looking at being down 10 of the past 11 weeks, a feat that has been repeated just once in history: 1970. Let's go Brandon! In premarket trading, Revlon surged after a report that Reliance Industries Ltd. is considering buying the company. Major technology and internet stocks were higher, rebounding from Thursday’s rout. Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. were among those advancing. US-listed Chinese stocks also soared in the premarket, a day after the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index’s 4.4% slide, with e-commerce giant JD.com (JD US) leading the pack ahead of the closely watched 618 online shopping event. Additionally, Chinese tech giants such as Alibaba surges on a Reuters report that China’s central bank has accepted Ant Group’s application to set up a financial holding company. Alibaba shares surge 11% following the report. Among other large- cap Chinese internet stocks, JD.com +9.3%, Pinduoduo +7.5%, Baidu +5.6%. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Adobe (ADBE US) shares fall 4% in premarket trading on Friday after the software company cut its revenue forecast for the full year as it expects currency fluctuations, seasonal shifts in demand and the decision to end sales in Russia and Belarus to weigh on its business. Roku (ROKU US) shares climb 3.9% in premarket trading after the company and Walmart said they entered a pact to enable streamers to purchase featured products fulfilled by Walmart directly on Roku. US Steel (X US) shares rise 5.2% in US premarket trading after the metal giant’s 2Q22 guidance came in well above consensus estimates, according to Morgan Stanley analysts led by Carlos De Alba. Rhythm (RYTM US) shares are 13% lower in US premarket trading after the company’s Imcivree injection failed to win approval for one of the two supplemental indications it sought and the company announced a financing agreement with HealthCare Royalty Partners. Revlon (REV US) shares surge 65% in premarket trading after Reliance Industries is considering buying Revlon in the US, ET Now reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Markets are rounding off a turbulent week buffeted by interest-rate increases which are rapidly draining liquidity, sparking losses in a range of assets. Global stocks face one of their worst weeks since pandemic-induced turmoil of 2020. The question is how far assets have to sink before the tightening cycle is fully priced in. Bucking the global hawkish trend, Japan, retianed super-easy monetary policy and yield curve control, defying pressure to track the global trend toward tighter settings. As a result, the Japanese yen is on course for its biggest fall against the dollar since March 2020 while Japan’s 10-year bond yield retreated below the Bank of Japan’s cap of 0.25%, after earlier hitting 0.265%, the highest since 2016. The Swiss franc surged to its highest level against the yen since 1980. “Investors have to ask themselves how long the rate-hiking cycle will go and how deep the economic slowdown will be,” said Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse Group AG, which is overweight equities and recently closed its underweight position in bonds. “Peak hawkishness, i.e. the peak in expectations repricing, might be close. Once we are there, it is not only possible but likely that we will see a rebound in both equities and bonds. However, this rebound will be very difficult to time.” Despite the ongoing slow-motion crash, US stocks attracted another $14.8 billion in the week to June 15, their sixth consecutive week of additions, according to EPFR Global data. In total, $16.6 billion flowed into equities globally in the period, while bonds had the largest redemptions since April 2020 and just over $50 billion exited cash, the data showed. European equities climbed after a choppy start. Euro Stoxx 600 rallied 1.4%. FTSE MIB outperforms peers, adding 1.7%. European real estate companies are among the best performers, rebounding after several days of losses following concerns higher interest rates will weigh on the sector’s financing abilities. Sweden’s Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden (SBB) rises as much as 10%, Aroundtown +6.5%, Wallenstam +5.9%, Vonovia +4.9%. Here are some of the biggest European movers: Nokian Renkaat shares gain as much as 11% after the Finnish tire manufacturer raised its net sales guidance for 2022 while also keeping its profit guidance intact. Italy’s FTSE MIB index rises as much as 2%, leading gains among major European stock markets; Italy-Germany 10-year bond yield spread falls to one- month low. Best performers on the index include Campari +5.4%, Pirelli +5.3%, DiaSorin +5.1%, Recordati +4% Ferrari gains as much as 2.4% in the wake of upgrades from Intesa Sanpaolo and Banca Akros after the luxury carmaker unveiled its electrification strategy on Thursday. Glencore climbs as much as 3.9% in London after the commodities group said its first-half trading profit will be bigger than it typically reports for an entire year. Playtech rises as much as 6.4% after the gambling operator announced the deadline for TTB to make a firm offer has been extended to next month. Lisi advances as much as 9.6% after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the Boeing supplier to buy, saying its post-Covid recovery isn’t yet priced in. Volvo Cars falls as much as 5.4% to the lowest since April after DNB cut its recommendation on the shares to sell due to falling demand, also noting risks related to the Polestar SPAC listing. Rexel drops as much as 3.9% as Kepler Cheuvreux analyst William Mackie cuts his recommendation to hold from buy, citing the “rapidly rising probability of a recession.” Italian bonds led a rally in European debt after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde pledged that borrowing costs of more indebted nations in the euro-area won’t be allowed to spiral out of control. Italy’s 10-year yield fell 20 basis points and German equivalents dropped six basis points. Asian stocks tumbled to a two-year low as traders fear the global rush to hike interest rates may result in a steep economic downturn.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slumped as much as 1.5% Friday. The measure has fallen every session this week, and is on track to post its largest weekly drop since since the early days of the pandemic in March 2020. Asia stocks have fallen along with global peers as concerns over the potential for more jumbo rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which raised its benchmark by 75 basis points on Wednesday, triggered a broad market rout. As the global campaign to rein in decades-high inflation continues, investors worry policy tightening may become overdone and throw major economies into recessions.  Japanese shares led Friday’s slump in Asia, with the decision by the Bank of Japan to keep its ultra-loose monetary settings unchanged providing limited fillip as volatility in the yen grows. Stocks in China and Hong Kong bucked the regional selloff, as Beijing’s pro-growth policy lends support to views that Chinese equities can keep outperforming.    Read: Yen Tumbles as BOJ Stands Pat, Makes Rare Reference to FX Market “In the immediate short term (next 2-3 months), we continue to expect Asian stocks to remain volatile,” Chetan Seth, Asia Pacific equity strategist at Nomura Holdings in Singapore, wrote in a note.“However, we do expect some stabilization into late 3Q as equity valuations reset and positive catalysts emerge.” The catalysts Nomura is looking for are the Fed turning less hawkish as US inflation shows signs of softening and China loosening its Covid-Zero stance. Equity benchmarks in Australia and Vietnam were the other big losers in Asia on Friday, with each dropping more than 1.5%. Japanese stocks trimmed losses as the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain its easy-money policy.  The Topix fell 1.7% to 1,835.90 as of market close, while the Nikkei declined 1.8% to 25,963.00. Both gauges had been down more than 2.6% earlier in the day. The yen was down 1.3% to around 134 per dollar. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 3.6%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 423 rose and 1,689 fell, while 58 were unchanged. The Topix fell 5.5% this week, its worst since April 2020. BOJ Holds Firm to Deepen Outlier Status, Keep Pressure on Yen “If the yen further weakens, this will help the Nikkei 225 to remain firm to some extent,” said Makoto Furukawa, chief portfolio strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley. “The Japanese stock market is not so different from the global trend, and monetary policy that comes out from the US and Europe is much more important for Japanese equities.” Key stock gauges in India completed their worst weekly declines in more than two years as spiraling inflation and rate hikes by central banks dampened the outlook for business recovery.     The S&P BSE Sensex slipped 0.3% to 51,360.42 in Mumbai, bringing its weekly decline to 5.4%, the most since May 2020. The NSE Nifty 50 Index dropped 0.4% on Friday, taking its tumble to 5.6%. Tata Consultancy Services lost 1.7% and was the biggest drag on the Sensex, which had 22 of the 30 member stocks trade lower. Fifteen of 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a gauge of oil and gas companies.  Among central bank monetary-policy measures this week, the US Federal Reserve made its biggest increase in policy rates since 1994. India’s markets “are largely taking cues from the global markets, in absence of any major domestic event,” Ajit Mishra, vice-president research at Religare Broking Ltd. wrote in a note. Foreign institutional investors have withdrawn $25.7 billion from Indian stocks this year through June 15, and the sell-off is headed for its ninth consecutive month. “We reiterate our negative view on markets and suggest continuing with the ‘sell on rise’ approach,” according to the note. In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index rose by around 0.4% as the greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Swiss franc. Treasury yields rose by up to 9 bps, led by the front end. The yen was the worst G-10 performer and slumped as much as 1.8% to 134.63 per dollar after the Bank of Japan kept policy on hold, defying speculation it would follow its global peers and move toward tightening. The BOJ made a rare reference to the currency market, saying it needed to watch its impact on the economy and markets. The euro fell below $1.05 before paring, after touching an almost one-week high yesterday. European bond yields fell and investors rushed back to Italian debt for a third day after ECB President Christine Lagarde pledged that borrowing costs of more indebted nations in the euro-area won’t be allowed to spiral out of control. Sterling eased against a broadly stronger dollar, giving up some of its sharp gains made the previous day, when the Bank of England’s pledge to take a more aggressive stance against inflation boosted the UK currency. Market awaits speeches by BOE policymakers Silvana Tenreyro and Huw Pill later in the day for possible clues into the outlook for inflation and monetary policy. In rates, Treasuries are cheaper across the curve with losses led by front-end following flurry of block trade in 2-year note futures over the European session. US yields cheaper by up to 5bp across front-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s spread by 2.5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.22%, cheaper by 2.5bp and underperforming bunds by 7bp Italian bonds outperform after ECB President Christine Lagarde’s pledge to support borrowing costs of indebted nations in the euro-area.  Bloomberg notes five block trades in 2-year note futures for combined 25k were posted between 3:25am ET and 4:36am ET appeared skewed toward sellers, helping front-end of the cash curve underperform. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; at least six IG issuers are said to have stood down over the past couple of days, as investors wait for market calm before re-launching deals. The German cash curve bull steepens, trading richer by ~12bps in 5s. Gilts bull flatten, with 10y yields down 8bps around this week’s lows near 2.4%. US 2s10s narrow 3bps. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund narrowing ~14bps to a one-month low near 188bps. In commodities, crude futures advance. WTI drifts 1% higher to trade near $118.75. Base metals are mixed; LME tin falls 0.9% while LME nickel gains 1.1%. Spot gold falls roughly $7 to trade near $1,850/oz Bitcoin is currently modestly firmer, but the overall sessions range is in proximity to USD 20k with the current trough at USD 20.19k. Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include US industrial production and capacity utilisation for May, along with the final Euro Area CPI reading for May. Central bankers include Fed Chair Powell, the ECB’s Simkus and the BoE’s Tenreyro and Pill. Of note, Jerome Powell gives welcome remarks before the Inaugural Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar at 845am ET. He is not expected to discuss monetary policy. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.0% to 3,703.75 MXAP down 1.2% to 157.22 MXAPJ down 0.4% to 521.87 Nikkei down 1.8% to 25,963.00 Topix down 1.7% to 1,835.90 Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 21,075.00 Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,316.79 Sensex little changed at 51,457.72 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 6,474.80 Kospi down 0.4% to 2,440.93 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 407.54 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.66% Euro down 0.4% to $1.0502 Brent Futures up 0.5% to $120.35/bbl Brent Futures up 0.5% to $120.39/bbl Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,849.84 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.75% to 104.41 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg A small tweak to the BOJ’s bond purchase plan this week blew up an arbitrage strategy popular with overseas investors known as the basis trade. It exacerbated a supply shortage of government bonds that has ramped up pressure on domestic financial institutions, leading them to turn to the BOJ for help to relieve the strain President Joe Biden said a US recession isn’t inevitable and acknowledged that aides warned him about the inflationary risk of his flagship relief bill, while insisting that he won’t soften his stance on Russia even if it costs him re-election The WTO clinched a historic package of accords including on vaccine production and fishery subsidies, ending the trade body’s seven-year negotiating drought China’s local governments are caught in an unexpectedly severe budget squeeze, creating a dilemma for officials over whether to boost debt or tolerate weaker economic growth A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks mostly suffered firm losses amid the global risk-aversion after the recent flurry of central bank rate increases and with weak data in the US stoking recession fears. ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in tech and the commodity-related sectors, although gold miners have weathered the storm after the recent upside in the precious metal. Nikkei 225 was pressured and failed to benefit from the BoJ decision to keep policy settings unchanged. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. pared opening losses amid virus-related optimism after Beijing reported zero cases outside of quarantine and with US-China defence meetings showing signs of cooling tensions. Top Asian News China in Talks With Qatar for Gas Field Stakes, Reuters Says Kuroda Deepens BOJ’s Outlier Status, Keeping Pressure on Yen ByteDance Disbands Shanghai Games Studio in Expansion Setback BOJ Offers to Buy Cheapest-to-Deliver JGBs for Extended Time Gold Heads for Weekly Drop as Traders Weigh Rate Hikes, Growth European bourses are now firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.2%, as performance picks up following a mixed open amid comparably quiet newsflow. Stateside, US futures are performing similarly, ES +1.0%, though the complex is cognisant of commentary from Chair Powell later. Note, today is Quad Witching; recently, GS’ Rubner highlighted “literally massive” USD 3.2tln notional open interest of US listed options which expire on June 17th, writing that the passing of this may allow the market to move more freely. Top European News UK is to set out new data rules which diverge from the EU on Friday as it seeks to ease pressure on businesses, while it believes the new rules will maintain free flow of data from Europe and does not expect the EU to object to its data reforms, according to Reuters. German Finance Minister Lindner told ECB President Lagarde that the ECB's talk regarding fragmentation threatens to dent confidence, according to FT. Hungarian Chief of Staff Gulyas says the idea of a global minimum tax is not accepted by the Hungarian government. Central Banks BoJ kept policy settings unchanged as expected with rates at -0.10% and QQE with yield curve control maintained to target 10yr JGB yields at around 0% with the decision on YCC made via an 8-1 vote as Kataoka dissented. BoJ repeated its April guidance that it will offer to buy 10yr JGBs at 0.25% every business day unless it is highly likely that no bids will be submitted and it also reiterated guidance on policy bias that it will take additional easing steps without hesitation as needed with an eye on the pandemic's impact on the economy. Furthermore, the BoJ said the economy is picking up as a trend though some weakness has been seen and they must carefully watch the impact of FX moves on Japan's economy and prices. BoJ's Kuroda says upward pressure is being seen in bond yields, and it is important for FX to move stable reflecting fundamentals, no change to the concept that YCC strongly supports the economic recovery; does not see a limit in YCC. Recent rapid JPY weakness is a weakness for the economy.. Does not see a need for further policy easing now. Not thinking about raising the cap on the BoJ's long-term yield target above 0.25%, as it could result in higher yields and weaken the effect of monetary easing. BoJ purchases JPY 70.1bln in ETFs. BoJ offers to purchase the cheapest-to-deliver issuance for an extended time as of June 20th. ECB's Knot says that several 50bps rate increases are possible in the event that inflation worsens, via BNR; does not see hikes reaching 200bp before early-2023. BoE's Pill says markets will have to make their own judgement on whether the BoE is considering a 50bp hike, via Bloomberg TV; stresses the conditionality around the inclusion of "forcefully" in the statement, in the context of "if necessary". Trying to signal that we may need to act further, looking at the persistence of inflationary pressure. Price pressures becoming embedded would be a trigger for more aggressive BoE action. FX Yen recoils after racking up big risk averse gains as BoJ sticks rigidly to ultra accommodative stance with additional measures to maintain YCC, USD/JPY hovers just under 135.00 vs 131.49 low on Thursday. Buck benefits after extending post-FOMC retreat in wake of weak US data and pronounced bounce in Treasuries, DXY extends recovery to 104.540 from 103.410 low. Franc maintains SNB hike momentum to rally further across the board, USD/CHF around 0.9650 compared to par-plus peaks earlier in the week. Euro underpinned by decent option expiry interest and hawkish ECB commentary, but Aussie undermined as Government gives authorities power to stop coal exports; EUR/USD on the 1.0500 handle and above 1+ bln rolling off between 1.0500-1.0495, AUD/USD capped just under 0.7000. Kiwi gleans some traction from a rise in NZ manufacturing PMI and RBNZ rate hike calls; NZD/USD straddles 0.6350, AUD/NZD cross sub-1.1050. Lira lags following latest CBRT survey showing higher inflation forecasts and USD/TRY rate, latter at 18.8874 by year end vs 17.5682 previously and circa 17.3200 at present. Fixed Income Debt extends intraday ranges as volatility remains high on Friday. Bunds veer from 142.56 to 144.99, Gilts between 111.83 and 112.91 and the 10 year T-note within a 116-19/115.28+ range. Hawkish comments from ECB's Knot largely discounted as EZ periphery bonds outperform on anti-fragmentation dynamic, but BoE's Pill rattles Sonia strip. Commodities WTI and Brent are currently set to end the week with gains in excess of USD 1.00/bbl overall, though the benchmarks reside towards the mid-point of the over USD 11.00/bbl range for the week. Newsflow has been comparably limited but primarily focused on familiar themes. US Energy Secretary called an emergency meeting with oil refiners next week to discuss steps companies can take to increase refining capacity and output, according to Reuters citing a DoE spokesperson. White House is reportedly considering fuel export limits as pump prices surge and options such as waiving anti-smog rules are also being discussed, according to Bloomberg. Qatar Energy set August Al-Shaheen crude term price at a premium of USD 9.24/bbl above Dubai quotes which is the highest in 3 months, according to traders cited by Reuters. Brazil's Petrobras is to announce a fuel price increase today, according to Reuters citing local press. China's national oil majors are reportedly in advanced discussions with Qatar around investment in North Field East LNG and for long-term contractual purchases of LNG, according to Reuters sources. Australia has invoked measures to give authorities the power to prevent coal exports if needed in an attempt to avert the risk of blackouts, according to the FT. Spot gold is rangebound in European hours having successfully surpassed the cluster of DMAs between USD 1843-1848/oz during Thursday’s blockbuster session.   US Event Calendar 09:15: May Capacity Utilization, est. 79.2%, prior 79.0% 09:15: May Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.3%, prior 0.8% 09:15: May Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 1.1% 10:00: May Leading Index, est. -0.4%, prior -0.3% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to buck the global trend of monetary tightening, as this morning the central bank decided to maintain its purchases of government bonds and equities. The decision was widely anticipated but the BOJ indicated that it must “pay due attention” to foreign exchange markets, following the yen’s rapid weakening to its lowest level in 24 years earlier this week. The Yen has weakened around -1.3% to 134/USD as we type. Meanwhile, Japan’s benchmark 10yr bond yields hit a six-year high of 0.268% at one point, moving beyond the BOJ’s 0.25% cap ahead of the policy decision. However, yields retreated to the 0.25% after its daily unlimited fixed-rate purchasing operations. This just continues what has been a very expensive week for the BoJ in terms of JGB QE after having had to buy $9.6tn yen worth. As one of our Asian FX strategists Tim Baker highlighted this morning, that's US$72bn. Tim highlighted that this is almost what the Fed and ECB were doing in an entire month last year, for economies 5-3x larger than Japan's. Japan's QE this week has been running more than 20x the pace of the Fed's QE in 2021, adjusted for the size of the economy. Can they continue to hold this line? You wouldn't think they could but it depends on global yields and central banks, the Yen and Japanese inflation. See my CoTD (link here) on this earlier this week. Watch out for the BoJ press conference after this goes to print this morning for any hints as to how determined they are to continue their policy settings. The BoJ caps an array of central bank meetings over recent days, and markets have experienced another rout over the last 24 hours as multiple headlines added to investors fears about an imminent recession. It marked a big shift from just a day earlier, when the initial focus after Chair Powell’s press conference had been on his comment (when referring to +75bps) that he didn’t “expect moves of this size to be common”. But futures swiftly turned negative as growing doubts were cast on how firm that commitment really was, not least since we’ve all seen just how swiftly the Fed have shifted posture over the last week in response to worse-than-expected data. On top of that, the latest decisions by the SNB and the BoE (more on which below) only added to the hawkish drumbeat that much higher rates are in the offing, whilst weak US housing data served to aggravate those fears about an imminent growth slowdown. With all said and done, you were hard-pressed to find a major asset that didn’t lose ground yesterday. The major equity indices slumped heavily on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 (-3.24%) losing more than -3% for the second time this week, as it also hit its lowest level since late 2020. Indeed, just 14 companies in the entire index moved higher on the day. Elsewhere, the NASDAQ saw an even larger decline, falling -4.08% to have now lost more than a third of its value since its all-time closing peak back in November. It’s lost -9.96% since Friday’s CPI and -6.12% this week. And it was a similar story in Europe too, as the STOXX 600 (-2.47%) fell to a one-year low of its own. Whilst equities were selling off, sovereign bonds continued to trade with elevated volatility, a function of continued central bank surprises, murky forward guidance, and heightened uncertainty around the near-to-medium-term outlook as economic data gets worse. In short it was a wild, wild ride yesterday. The sell-off initially accelerated after the SNB became the latest central bank to surprise. They hiked rates for the first time in 15 years, executing a 50bps move, combined with a change in FX policy, that our strategist Robin Winkler argues marks a once-in-a-decade policy regime shift (link here). In turn, that led to a massive reaction in the Swiss Franc, which strengthened by +2.91% against the US Dollar on the day in its biggest daily appreciation since 2015. Then we had the Bank of England, where they hiked rates by +25bps as widely expected, with 3 of the 9 committee members continuing to vote for a larger 50bp increment. Notably, their statement sent a stronger signal on inflation, saying that the Committee would be “particularly alert to indications of more persistent inflationary pressures, and will if necessary act forcefully in response.” In turn, that saw investors reappraise the path of future rate hikes in a more hawkish direction, and are now expecting more than +150bps worth of hikes over the next 3 meetings, so equivalent to at least a 50bp move at each one. Our UK economist writes in his reaction note (link here) that he expects the BoE to hike by 50bps in August and September now, which for reference would be the largest single hikes since they gained operational independence in 1997. Against that backdrop, sovereign bond yields whipped around yet again. European yields were much higher on tighter policy and then Treasury yields moved higher in sympathy during European trading but gradually fell after another batch of underwhelming housing data lent new fears that growth was on unstable footing. Yields on 10yr Treasuries fell -8.9bps to 3.20%, but at their intraday peak they’d been up +20.7bps, so some sizeable moves in both directions. The move in nominal yields traced real yields, which were as high as +21.7bps intraday at the 10yr point, before finishing the day just +1.1bps higher. 10yr breakevens fell -10.4bps on the prospect of slower growth, which drove nominal yields lower on the day. In Asia, this morning, 10yr yields are witnessing a reversal with yields up +4.33bps to 3.24% while 2yr yields (+6bps) also moved higher to 3.15% as I type. Our US rates strategists have updated their views in the face of some large forces in both directions with the 10yr now expected to hit 3.85%. They also updated their year-end 2yr call to 3.85%, so a flat curve. See the full update here. Meanwhile in Europe, 10yr bunds gained +7.2bps (+28.3bps at the peak) in a very choppy session. However, there was a considerable tightening in peripheral spreads for a second day running, with the gap between Italian and German 10yr yields down -13.7bps to 202bps, which followed comments from Italian central bank governor Visco that the spread should be under 150bps based on economic fundamentals. The heightened uncertainty and wild swings in yields also translated to heightened currency volatility, where the Euro traded in its widest intraday range since March 2020, which was as low as -0.60% and as strong as +1.50% against the dollar before ultimately appreciating +1.01%. As mentioned, sentiment was further dampened by weak US housing data yesterday, with both housing starts and building permits in May falling by even more than expected. Housing starts were down to an annualised rate of 1.549m (vs. 1.693m expected), their lowest level in over a year, whilst building permits were down to an annualised rate of 1.695m (vs. 1.778m expected). We also got a sign of how tighter monetary policy was affecting the market, with Freddie Mac’s data showing that a 30-year fixed mortgage rate for the week ending yesterday rose to 5.78% (vs. 5.23% in the previous week). That’s the highest level since November 2008, as well as the largest weekly increase in the rate since 1987. And it just shows how the much more rapid pace of Fed hikes now expected by investors over the last week is already filtering its way through to the real economy. Those moves lower in the US and European equities have been echoed in Asian markets this morning. The Nikkei (-1.59%) is the largest underperformer with the Kospi (-1.08%) also trading sharply lower. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.78%) is recovering from earlier losses while mainland Chinese stocks also turning around with the Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) and CSI (+0.26%) both trading up. Outside of Asia, stock futures in the DMs are bouncing with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.52%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.67%) and DAX (+0.31%) all heading higher. Looking forward, Russian President Putin will be giving a speech today at the St Petersburg Economic Forum, which his press secretary Peskov has tried to build anticipation for, and could offer a flavour of how combative the Kremlin plans to be in its international approach. That came as German Chancellor Scholz, French President Macron and Italian PM Draghi endorsed Ukraine’s EU candidacy in a visit to the country yesterday. Otherwise, European natural gas futures pared back their significant increases in the morning to close -1.94% lower, marking a change in direction after their massive increases over the previous 2 sessions. To the day ahead now, and data releases include US industrial production and capacity utilisation for May, along with the final Euro Area CPI reading for May. Central bankers include Fed Chair Powell, the ECB’s Simkus and the BoE’s Tenreyro and Pill. Tyler Durden Fri, 06/17/2022 - 08:12.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 17th, 2022

Futures Rise As ECB Panics And Fed Looms

Futures Rise As ECB Panics And Fed Looms After five days of non-stop losses, US index futures finally bounced modestly along with stocks in Europe as the ECB announced it would hold an emergency meeting to undo the damage done by its meeting from last week, and ahead of the Fed which today will hike by 75bps, the most since 1994, and will then scramble to undo the damage from pushing the US into a recession in coming days and weeks. Contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posted modest gains, rising 0.8% and 1% respectively, ahead of the Fed, with markets fully pricing in the biggest rate hike since 1994 amid worries about the outlook for the economy. Europe's Stoxx Europe 600 index jumped more than 1%, snapping a six-day losing streak, while the euro strengthened and the region’s bonds advanced as the European Central Bank’s Governing Council started an emergency meeting. Treasury yields dipped and the dollar retreated from a two-year high. In premarket trading, major technology and internet stocks are higher in premarket trading along with US stock futures ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve announcement, with investors expecting a 75 basis-point increase in rates. Bank stocks were also higher in premarket trading. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Spotify (SPOT US) shares gain 2.2% in premarket trading as Wells Fargo upgraded the stock to equal-weight, saying the music streaming firm’s recent investor day laid out a more profitable company than the brokerage has modeled historically. Chinese tech stocks are mostly higher in US premarket trading, with education shares continuing their winning streak since peer Koolearn’s livestreaming hit went viral. Alibaba (BABA US) +1.9%, Baidu (BIDU US) +3.6%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) +2.3%, New Oriental Education (EDU US) +8.4%, TAL Education (TAL US) +4.5%. iQIYI (IQ US) shares decline 3.9% in US premarket trading as Baidu is in talks to sell its majority stake in the streaming service in a deal that could value all of iQIYI at $7 billion, Reuters reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter. Cryptocurrency-related stocks fell in premarket trading on Wednesday as Bitcoin and Ethereum tumbled. MicroStrategy (MSTR US) -7.6%, Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US) -7.6%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) -7%, Coinbase (COIN US) -6.6%. Apple (AAPL US) and other consumer computer-hardware stocks may be in focus today as Morgan Stanley cut its price targets for such shares due to risks related to a potential slowdown in consumer spending. Moderna’s (MRNA US) shares rose 1.2% in US after-hours trading on Tuesday, while analysts said that the unanimous verdict from an FDA panel, which supported the biotech firm’s Covid vaccine for children, came as no surprise. Qualcomm (QCOM US) stocks could be in focus after the company won a European Union court bid to topple a 997 million-euro antitrust fine for allegedly pressuring Apple to only buy its 4G chips. Fears of stagflation have driven stocks into a bear market and triggered a stunning selloff in bonds in recent days. Uncertainty is elevated heading into the Fed decision: increments of 50 basis points, 75 basis points and even 100 basis points have all been chewed over by commentators. Parts of the US yield curve remain inverted, signaling concerns that restrictive monetary policy will lead to an economic downturn. Today's main event is of course the Fed decision which is expected to include a 75bp rate hike, with latest forecasts released at the same time. Swaps market is currently pricing in around 70bp of rate hikes for the meeting with a combined 202bp of additional hikes priced for the June, July and September meetings. From the forecasts, focus will be on revisions to the Fed’s long-term rate; swaps market is currently pricing a rate peak at around 3.90% by the middle of next year (full preview here). “Markets are poised for aggressive rate hikes, but what of US economic growth?” said Nema Ramkhelawan-Bhana, an economist at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg. “It might not be in recessionary territory just yet, but the landing is not going to be as soft as the Fed predicates. Anything less than 75 basis points or at least a strong willingness to make more significant adjustments will likely turn the market on its head, eroding total returns of global bonds and equities even further.” European equities trade well but off session highs. FTSE MIB outperforms, rallying as much as 3.3% before stalling. Stoxx 600 rises as much as 1.2% with travel, banks and insurance names doing much of the heavy lifting, while the euro strengthened and the region’s bonds advanced as the European Central Bank’s Governing Council started an emergency meeting. While new stimulus may not be on the agenda, officials will discuss a crisis strategy and the reinvestment of bond purchases conducted under the now-halted pandemic emergency program, Bloomberg reported. Here are the biggest European movers: Rate-sensitive sectors such as financials and technology gained in Europe as the ECB holds an ad hoc meeting to discuss market conditions and the Fed concludes its two-day policy meeting. Finecobank shares rise as much as 8.4%, Intesa Sanpaolo +7.5%, Assicurazioni Generali +5.3%. Europe auto stocks are among outperforming sectors in the wider equity gauge, led by French part suppliers Faurecia and Valeo, and carmaker Renault. Faurecia shares gain as much as 8.7%, Valeo +6.5%, Renault +5.6% Whitbread shares rise as much as 6.4% after the hotel operator reported quarterly sales, with Barclays noting the company’s “upbeat tone.” Gerresheimer shares rise as much as 17% after a Bloomberg report that the German maker of packaging for drugs and cosmetics rejected an informal takeover approach from Bain Capital in recent weeks. Nordic and European forestry and paper mill companies’ shares rebound, breaking sharp declines triggered after brokers cut their  respective outlooks for the sector in the past week. Smurfit Kappa stock rises as much as 5.3%, BillerudKorsnas +4.8%, Huhtamaki +5.6% H&M shares drop as much as 6.4% with uncertainty about the margin outlook and ongoing cost pressures overshadowing the apparel retailer’s 2Q sales beat. Getinge shares fall as much as 18% after the medical technology firm lowered guidance, projecting flat organic sales growth for the year. Nordea and JPMorgan downgraded their recommendations. Elia Group shares fell as much as 12% after the electricity transmission company laid out plans for a rights offering. Autoneum shares drop as much as 5.2% after the car- parts maker warned on profits. Vontobel analyst Arben Hasanaj noted the firm’s difficulty in passing on higher costs, along with further likely delays in car production recovery. Voltalia slumps as much as 9.1% after Oddo downgrades to neutral in note as it questions what level of growth is possible after 2023. “The ECB is between rock and a hard place, like most other central banks,” said Marija Veitmane, a senior strategist at State Street Global Markets. “Inflation is very high and shows little signs of quickly declining, while the economy is increasingly fragile, particularly with the war in Europe and ever-rising energy costs. So anything the ECB can announce to reduce systemic risk is very welcome.” Earlier in the session, Asian stocks posted modest declines as sentiment improved from earlier in the week, with Chinese shares rising after domestic economic data showed pockets of recovery. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.4% as of 6:07 p.m. in Singapore, as losses in regional tech hardware shares offset advances in China’s internet giants. South Korea and the Philippines led declines, while Japanese stocks fell ahead of a central bank policy meeting this week. Gains in China and Hong Kong helped offset losses elsewhere as data showed the country’s industrial production unexpectedly increased in May. Meanwhile the nation’s central bank kept a key policy rate unchanged, avoiding further policy divergence as the Federal Reserve tightens. “A more accommodative policy and fiscal environment together with stronger corporate fundamentals should be positive for Chinese equity assets,” said Jessica Tea, an investment specialist at BNP Paribas Asset Management. The MSCI Asia gauge dropped almost 4% over the previous two sessions as inflation data from the US fueled bets of a 75-basis-point rate hike by the Fed at Wednesday’s meeting. Still, the index has outperformed a measure of global peers this year, with the latter now in a bear market. Japanese stocks dropped ahead of a Federal Reserve rate decision. A Bank of Japan review on Friday is also on the radar.  The Topix Index fell 1.2% to close at 1,855.93 while the Nikkei gauge declined 1.1% to 26,326.16. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index’s decline, decreasing 3.9%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 288 rose and 1,829 fell, while 53 were unchanged. “The sharp decline in JGBs is also contributing to the drop in stock prices as uncertainty mounts ahead of the BOJ meeting,” said Hajime Sakai, chief fund manager at Mito Securities Co Indian stocks fell after swinging between gains and losses for the most part of the session, as concerns over higher inflation and likely tighter monetary policy measures weighed on sentiment.   The S&P BSE Sensex slipped 0.3% to close at 52,541.39 in Mumbai to its lowest level since July 28. The NSE Nifty 50 Index also slipped by a similar magnitude. Reliance Industries Ltd. posted its longest run of losses in more than a month and was the biggest drag on the Sensex, which had 17 of 30 member stocks trading lower. Ten of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd fell, led by a gauge of power stocks. Retail inflation in India held above the central bank’s target in May, while wholesale prices accelerated for a third-straight month as input costs continue to rise, hurting company earnings.  “Commodity prices continue to remain elevated and despite passing on the costs to consumers, India Inc. is still facing margin pressures,” Mitul Shah, head of research at Reliance Securities wrote in a note.   Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.3% to close at 6,601.00, the fourth straight day of declines. All sectors finished lower, with mining stocks and banks the biggest drags on the index. During early trade, Australia’s industrial relations umpire raised the minimum wage by 5.2% from July 1, a larger-than-expected increase, affirming speculation of faster tightening by the central bank.  Meanwhile, in New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index was little changed at 10,635.92., after entering a bear market Tuesday. The gauge has shed more than 20% from its January 2021 peak. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Canadian dollar. Risk-sensitive Scandinavian currencies and the Aussie dollar lead gains. The euro rose by as much as 0.9% to 1.0508, and the yield on 10-year Italian bonds fell as much as 30bps after the ECB announced the Governing Council would hold an ad-hoc meeting on Wednesday “to discuss current market conditions.” ECB officials will be invited to sign off on the reinvestment of bond purchases conducted under the now-halted pandemic emergency program, a crisis response that they flagged in their decision last week, according to people familiar with the matter. Three-month euribor fixes higher by the most in more than two years, climbing to the highest since April 2020 as funding rates seek to mirror ECB rate hike expectations. Japanese bond futures drop most since 2013 as traders ramp up bets BOJ will give in to tweak policy. Australian bonds slumped with three-year yields posting steepest two-day climb since 1994. The Aussie extended an advance after the Fair Work Commission said the minimum wage will be increased by 5.2%. Earlier, the RBA said it “will do what’s necessary” to bring inflation back down to its 2-3% target as Goldman sees three more half-point hikes. In rates, Treasuries pared a recent drop, with yields falling up to 8bps led by shorter maturities amid a TSY rally in Asia and early European sessions, leaving yields richer by as much as 12.5bp across front-end leading into US session.  Markets are pricing in 73bps worth of hikes from the Fed today. US 10-year yields around 3.36%, richer by 10bp on the day while front-end outperformance steepens 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 3bp and 6.5bp respectively. Curve steepens as long-end lags front-end rally and some rate hike premium eases out the swaps market ahead of 2pm ET Fed policy decision. European bonds rallied after ECB announces emergency meeting to discuss market conditions, with French and UK outperforming along with Italy and other peripherals. In commodities, crude futures drop back toward the lows for the week. WTI falls 1.2% near $117.50. Most base metals trade in the green; LME tin rises 2.3%, outperforming peers. Spot gold rises roughly $16 to trade near $1,825/oz Looking to the day ahead, the main highlight will likely be the aforementioned FOMC decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. There’s also an array of ECB speakers, including President Lagarde, as well as the ECB’s Holzmann, Nagel, Centeno, Muller, De Cos, Panetta and Knot. Otherwise, data releases include Euro Area industrial production for April, US retail sales for May, the NAHB housing market index for June and the Empire State manufacturing survey for June. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 3,768.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 412.15 MXAP down 0.4% to 159.27 MXAPJ little changed at 529.71 Nikkei down 1.1% to 26,326.16 Topix down 1.2% to 1,855.93 Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 21,308.21 Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,305.41 Sensex up 0.2% to 52,797.58 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.3% to 6,601.03 Kospi down 1.8% to 2,447.38 Brent Futures down 0.2% to $120.90/bbl Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,818.80 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.56% to 104.93 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.77% Euro up 0.6% to $1.0479 Brent Futures down 0.2% to $120.90/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who’s carefully telegraphed interest rate hikes over four years, looks likely to abandon gradualism and move more forcefully to stamp out inflation along with growing concerns that it will persist The European Central Bank’s Governing Council is ready to step in if it considers moves in government bond markets to be unjustified, according to Belgium’s Pierre Wunsch, as the ECB prepared for an emergency meeting on recent euro-zone bond turbulence The European Union is restarting infringement proceedings against the UK and will launch two new legal actions after London proposed legislation to override part of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, according to an EU official The first batch of a Chinese offshore yuan sovereign bond sale saw the strongest demand in nearly two years, defying a recent stream of outflows at a time when the global debt market is showing deepening levels of stress Even after central banks recognized they got their inflation calls wrong last year, they’ve continued to flub their policy guidance, threatening greater damage to their credibility, roiling markets and undermining the pandemic recovery A more detailed look at markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed amid cautiousness heading into the FOMC with markets pricing in a more than 90% chance of a 75bps rate hike, while the region also digested better-than-expected Chinese activity data. ASX 200 was led lower by energy, resources and tech, despite a 5.2% national minimum wage increase. Nikkei 225 failed to benefit from strong Machinery Orders data amid the ongoing currency-related jitters. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were positive with encouragement from the latest activity data that showed surprise growth in Industrial Production and a narrower than feared contraction in Retail Sales, while attention was also on the PBoC which rolled over CNY 200bln through its 1-year MLF with the rate unchanged. Top Asian News PBoC injected CNY 200bln via 1-year MLF vs. CNY 200bln maturing with the rate kept at 2.85%, as expected. China's stats bureau said the main indicators show marginal improvement and the economy shows good recovery momentum, but added that the economic recovery still faces many difficulties and challenges. Furthermore, it said policies to stabilise economic growth gained traction and it expects economic performance to improve further in June due to policy support, but noted recovery is still at an initial stage and main indicators are at low levels, according to Reuters. Hong Kong reports 1047 new COVID cases. Appears to be the first time since early April that cases have surpassed the 1k mark. European equities are firmer across the board ahead of the impromptu ECB meeting, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.0%; unsurprisingly,  periphery-nation indexes are outperforming, FTSE MIB +3.0%, given upside in banking names. As such, the Banking sector outperforms with most of its peers also in the green, though the Energy sector lags amid benchmark pricing. Stateside, futures are firmer across the board deriving impetus from European performance, but with overall action somewhat more contained ahead of the Fed and uncertainty around 75bp, ES +0.3%. Baidu (BIDU) is in discussions with potential suitors to offload its 53% stake in video-streaming name Iqiyi, according to Reuters sources. +3.8% in the pre-market. Top European News UK PM Johnson is reportedly determined to reverse Chancellor Sunak's planned GBP 15bln tax raid on business as he tries to firm up support following last week's confidence vote, according to The Times. UK PM Johnson is understood to have told his cabinet to 'de-escalate' the Northern Ireland Protocol stand-off with the EU, according to The Telegraph. UK exports to the EU during H1 of last year fell by 15.6% amid Brexit frictions, according to a study by Aston University cited by FT. Swiss SECO Forecasts (summer): Inflation: 2022 2.5% (prev. 1.9%), 2023 1.4% (prev. 0.7%). GDP: 2022 2.8% (prev. 3.0%), 1.6% (prev. 1.7%) Central Banks BoJ offers an additional emergency bond buying operation; to buy unlimited amounts of 10yr JGBs on June 16th & 17th at 0.25%. Fall in JGB futures has triggered a circuit breaker at the Tokyo stock exchange, via Japan Exchange Group. Japan's Securities Dealer Association's Morita says the JPY may have weakened too much, via Reuters. 8/9 members (vs. 3/9 at the May meeting) of the Times' shadow MPC believe that the BoE should raise rates by 50bps at its policy meeting tomorrow, according to the Times. FX Buck backs off from best levels into FOMC and US data awaiting confirmation of the hawkish hype or half point hike signalled pre-hot CPI; DXY slips from 105.650 peak on Tuesday into 105.380-104.700 range. Aussie rebounds on risk grounds and more aggressive RBA tightening calls, AUD/USD reclaims 0.6900+ status. Yen takes note of latest verbal intervention and Hong Kong Dollar supported by more physical HKMA buying to keep it pegged; USD/JPY sub-134.50 vs 135.50+ overnight. Euro extends recovery rally as ECB holds ad hoc meeting to discuss fragmenting debt markets and Wunsch contends that gradualism does not rule out larger than 25 bp moves; EUR/USD pops over 1.0500 from just below 1.0400 yesterday. Yuan gleans impetus from better than expected or feared Chinese industrial production and retail sales, USD/CNH nearer 6.7200 than 6.7600, USD/CNY close to 6.7100 and not far from 21 DMA at 6.6965 today. Fixed Income Decent bear market retracement in debt approaching the FOMC. Bunds up to 143.79 at best vs new 143.25 cycle low, Gilts towards top of 112.48-111.88 band and 10 year T-note closer to 115-06 than 114-10. BTPs markedly outperform after near 3 full point bounce from Tuesday close in anticipation of an anti-fragmentation tool from the ECB as GC meets for crisis talks. Commodities Currently, WTI and Brent are lower by circa. USD 1.00bbl but reside within comparably narrow ranges of around USD 2.00bbl vs, for instance, yesterday’s USD +6.00/bbl parameters. Curtailed amid COVID updates from China and Hong Kong alongside Biden's reported push for an explanation from producers over why supply isn't increasing. US President Biden has demanded an explanation from oil companies over why they are refraining from putting additional gasoline on the market and wants concrete ideas as to how they can increase supplied, according to a letter seen by Reuters. US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +0.7mln (exp. -1.3mln), Cushing -1.1mln, Gasoline -2.2mln (exp. +1.1mln), Distillates +0.2mln (exp. +0.3mln) US DoE announced contract awards and issued the fourth emergency sale of crude oil from SPR (as previously announced), in which contracts were awarded to nine including Chevron (CVX), Exxon (XOM) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC). Kazakhstan has capped wheat exports at 550k tonnes and wheat flour at 370k tonnes until September 30th, according to the Agriculture Ministry, via Reuters. Spot gold derives impetus from the USD’s retreat and is now back above USD 1820/oz but still shy of yesterday’s USD 1831/oz best and the subsequent 200-, 10- & 21-DMAs ahead at USD 1842, 1843 & 1845 respectively. US Event Calendar 07:00: June MBA Mortgage Applications +6.6%, prior -6.5% 08:30: May Import Price Index YoY, est. 11.9%, prior 12.0%;  MoM, est. 1.1%, prior 0% May Export Price Index YoY, prior 18.0%; MoM, est. 1.3%, prior 0.6% 08:30: May Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.9% May Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.6% May Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.3%, prior 1.0% 08:30: June Empire Manufacturing, est. 2.2, prior -11.6 10:00: April Business Inventories, est. 1.2%, prior 2.0% 10:00: June NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 67, prior 69 14:00: June FOMC Rate Decision 16:00: April Total Net TIC Flows, prior $149.2b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap In these crazy days for markets, I'm willing to stake my reputation that I've done something in the last 24 hours that no-one else reading this did. Yes, after a business trip to Europe yesterday, I watched the original Top Gun on my iPad on the plane ride home for the very first time, some 36 years after it came out. My wife wants to watch the sequel, so I thought I ought to see what all the fuss was about. She's seen it around 20 times and always asks what I was doing in my teenage years that's made me miss all the films of her youth. The truth is I was either studying or playing cricket or golf. Not much else. My review is that it was a decent film, but Mavericks' courting technique doesn't really age very well. I'm not sure Maverick and Goose would have been able to get out of the tight spot that the Fed are in at the moment very easily. After the astonishing price action over the previous 2 business days, markets have settled somewhat over the last 24 hours, but overall have continued to struggle as they await today’s all-important Federal Reserve decision. Up until the CPI report last Friday, that decision seemed like a lock in favour of a second consecutive 50bp hike, not because that was the right move, but because the Fed had firmly guided us to such an outcome. The CPI report raised doubts as to whether they could hold that line over the summer, but the WSJ article on Monday night broke the levee as a 75bps move tonight is now suddenly pretty much consensus. Our economics team agrees and have now updated their previously street leading view to have a +75bp hike tonight followed by another +75bp increase in July. The team believes fed funds will reach 3.5% by the end of the year, and hit a terminal rate of 4.1% in Q1 2023, sooner than they thought before the WSJ story. See their full updated call, available here. As we hit this big day, markets now fully price in a 75bps hike today. Indeed, 76.3bps is priced, so that actually incorporates a small risk of 100bps, something former New York Fed President Bill Dudley was openly considering yesterday, which may have contributed to the sentiment that drove the next leg of the selloff in the New York afternoon. A total of 289bps worth of rate hikes by year-end is now priced. So quite the turnaround from a few weeks back when some were even floating the strange idea of a “pause” in September. Clearly the 75bp call is mostly based on a WSJ article so we can't be certain but you would have thought the Fed would have tried to leak out a rebuttal if that wasn't what they wanted to guide the market towards. We will see. Whilst the size of any rate hike will be the focal point, today also brings the latest dot plot from the FOMC and offers an insight into the potential pace of rate hikes over the months ahead. Our US economists expect that to undergo substantial revisions, with the median dot likely rising to 3.5% and 3.8% for 2022 and 2023 respectively. Meanwhile on the economic projections, they think they’ll also show further movements towards a “softish landing”, with growth revised lower throughout the forecast, albeit stopping short of anticipating a recession. Ahead of all that, US equities slipped to fresh lows yesterday with the S&P 500 (-0.37%) falling to its lowest closing level since January 2021. Tech stocks outperformed, in contrast to the recent trend, with the NASDAQ (+0.18%) and the FANG+ Index (+1.97%) bouncing off of recent lows. Small-caps fared less well today and the Russell 2000 (-0.39%) fell to its lowest closing level since November 2020. Over in Europe, equities similarly fell to fresh lows and the STOXX 600 (-1.26%) likewise fell to levels unseen since March 2021. Rates sold off by a smaller magnitude than the previous two sessions (low bar to clear), but an initial rally gave way to a selloff in the European afternoon that continued to gather pace into the New York close. Yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +11.3bps to a fresh post-2011 high of 3.47%, supported by a further rise in the 10yr real yield (+13.7bps) that took it up to a 3-year high of 0.82 The 2s10s curve just about clambered out of inversion territory where it’d closed on Monday, steepening by +3.8bps to end the day at just 3.6bps. But even the Fed’s preferred yield curve measure of the near-term forward spread fell to its flattest level in 3 months, even if it’s still well out of inversion territory for now. This spread will likely collapse in the months ahead. As we go to press, yields on 10yr USTs (-4.63 bps) are moving lower to 3.42% with 2yrs -5.6bps. Today’s focus may be on the Fed, but over at the ECB we had Isabel Schnabel of the Executive Board give a significant speech last night about policy fragmentation. Recall, one of the key takeaways from last week’s ECB meeting was the apparent lack of progress on anti-fragmentation tools, shining a spotlight on Schnabel’s remarks last night. As our European economists emphasised last week, Schnabel argued that any tool would be reactionary, that is in response to more spread widening. She did not offer new details of any potential tool last night, instead echoing President Lagarde that PEPP purchase flexibility would be used to ensure smooth policy transmission in the interim. However, Schnabel also re-emphasised the ECB’s commitment to ensure smooth policy transmission. That Schnabel, a relative hawk on the committee and one that has expressed trepidation about a new facility in the past, so willingly supported the idea of doing what was needed to support policy implementation was an important shift for the ECB. The language Schnabel used last night may support the notion that the spread widening seen to date may already be approaching levels inconsistent with smooth policy transmission. It may not take much more pressure for the ECB to act but we are still in the dark on how they will. Earlier in the day, Dutch central bank governor Knot made some incredibly hawkish comments, saying that if “conditions remain the same as today, we will have to raise rates by more than 0.25 points” in September, and that “our options are not necessarily limited” to a 50bps move, so openly floating the potential to move by even more, which hasn’t been something discussed by the ECB to date. European sovereign bonds sold off significantly against that backdrop, with fresh multi-year highs seen for yields on 10yr bunds (+11.9bps), OATs (+13.7bps) and BTPs (+14.9bps). Peripheral spreads hit new post-Covid highs too, with the gap between Italian and German 10yr yields widening to 241bps. And there were some significant milestones on the credit side as well, with iTraxx Crossover widening +10.4bps to a fresh 10 year high of 544bps outside of 2-months around peak covid, and in North America we saw the CDX IG spread move above 100bps in trading for the first time since April 2020, before settling back at 99.0bps. In Asia markets are mixed with the Hang Seng (+1.44%) trading up boosted by technology stocks following the Nasdaq's overnight gain. Likewise, stocks in mainland China are also higher in early trade with the Shanghai Composite (+1.41%) and CSI (+1.57%) edging higher as the economy showed a slightly better than expected recovery in May (see below). However, the Nikkei (-0.73%) and the Kospi (-1.54%) are trading lower, extending earlier session losses. Outside of Asia, US equity futures are reversing losses this morning with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.38%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.59%) trading up. Early this morning, data released showed that China’s industrial production unexpectedly rebounded +0.7% y/y in May (v/s -0.9% expected), against a drop of -2.9% in April, whilst retail sales slid -6.7% in the period, less than -7.1% projected decline and slightly better than April’s -11.1% plunge. Meanwhile, Fixed-asset investment grew +6.2% in the first 5 months of the year (v/s +6.0% expected). Elsewhere, Japan’s core machinery orders strongly beat at +10.8% m/m in April, its fastest pace in 18 months (v/s -1.3% market consensus and +7.1% in March). Yesterday we also heard that the Bank of Japan had bought a record ¥2.2tn in government notes through its fixed-rate operation as they seek to defend their yield curve target and keep 10-year JGB yields beneath their stated limit of 0.25%. This has continued to put pressure on the Yen however, which fell to a closing level of 135.47 per dollar yesterday, thus moving beneath its 2002 closing low of 134.71 and leaving it at levels unseen since 1998. We're at just above 135 this morning after a small rally back. Speaking of currencies under pressure, Bitcoin fell to a 17-month low of $21,966 yesterday, having been trading around $30,000 just prior to the CPI release on Friday. This morning it's at $21,100. Elsewhere, brent crude and WTI futures reversed mid-day gains of near 2% to close -0.90% and -1.65% lower, respectively, following reports that the Biden Administration may pose a surtax on oil company profit margins, as another sign Biden is looking high and low for potential actions to curb oil gains into this year’s mid-terms. The big moves were seen in natural gas however, where US futures were down -16.5% and European futures were up +16.12% after the operator Freeport LNG said that they aiming for a partial resumption of operations at one of their Texas export terminals in 90 days, and that full operations wouldn’t return until late 2022. That’s a longer delay than was expected, and by keeping gas in the US led to that decline in US futures and the rise in European ones. Looking at yesterday’s data, the Fed got a fresh reminder about inflation pressures from the PPI release for May, where the monthly headline gain in prices rose to +0.8% in line with expectations, up from +0.4% in April. That left the year-on-year measure at +10.8% (vs. +10.9% expected), which does mark a second consecutive decline in that measure from its peak of +11.5% in March. One positive for the Fed ahead of today’s meeting is that elements that comprise a larger share of core PCE, such as healthcare, showed some softness, but time will tell. Separately, the UK employment data saw the number of payrolled employees in May grow by +90k (vs. +70k expected), but unemployment ticked up to 3.8% in the three months to April (vs. 3.6% expected). Finally, the ZEW survey from Germany saw an improvement relative to May’s readings, with expectations up to -28.0 (vs. -26.8 expected), and the current situation up to -27.6 (vs. -31.0 expected). To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will likely be the aforementioned FOMC decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. There’s also an array of ECB speakers, including President Lagarde, as well as the ECB’s Holzmann, Nagel, Centeno, Muller, De Cos, Panetta and Knot. Otherwise, data releases include Euro Area industrial production for April, US retail sales for May, the NAHB housing market index for June and the Empire State manufacturing survey for June. Tyler Durden Wed, 06/15/2022 - 07:53.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytJun 15th, 2022

Stocks Stage Feeble Attempt At Dead Cat Bounce After Losing $1.3 Trillion In One Day

Stocks Stage Feeble Attempt At Dead Cat Bounce After Losing $1.3 Trillion In One Day US index futures staged a feeble, fading attempt to bounce on Tuesday, following Monday's crash that wiped out $1.3 trillion in market cap and topped a furious 4-day selloff that was the worst since March 2020 and culminated in a bear market amid expectations - even from permabull Goldman - that the Fed's now accepted 75bps rate hike on Wednesday will hurl the economy into a recession. Futures on the S&P 500 rebounded more than 1% in early trading before fading the gain to just 0.24%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.5%. US stocks plunged on Monday to the lowest level since January 2021 and closed more than 20% below its January record high, triggering Joe Biden first official bear market. Global equities sold off after an unexpectedly strong reading Friday on US inflation sparked concern that the Fed will go too far in raising interest rates to tame soaring prices. Bond yields dipped after soaring to a peak last seen in 2011. The yield curve remained flat, however, underscoring worries about an economic downturn sparked by tighter monetary policy, with the 2s10s curve just 1bps away from inverting again.  Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, plunged with bitcoin puking more than 10% to below $21,000 before paring much of the slide as dip buyers emerged. UBS said most long-term owners are now in the red and warned of more losses if coin miners buckle under the pressure and start selling. The dollar was steady near a two-year high. In Japan, the central bank boosted bond-purchase operations to keep yields in check. The yen hovered near a 24-year low against the greenback. “We remain bearish on equity outlook,” said Marija Veitmane, a senior strategist at State Street Global Markets. “Inflation is still a huge problem and central banks need to be very aggressive to fight it. This is a very negative outlook for stocks, so we would be sellers of any rally.” Among notable premarket movers, shares of megacap tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla and Meta Platforms were slightly higher and poised to recoup some of the losses from Monday: Apple (AAPL US) +1.4%, Amazon (AMZN US) +1.7%, Alphabet (GOOGL US) +1.5%, Meta Platforms (META US) +1.9% and Nvidia (NVDA US) +1.8% in premarket trading. Oracle shares rose 13% in premarket trading after the software company reported higher-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Here are the most notable premarket movers: AMC Entertainment (AMC US) shares rise as much as 3.7% in US premarket trading, in line with a broader rebound in risk assets, and after the movie theater operator said that last weekend’s admission revenues beat that of the same weekend of 2019. Adobe (ADBE US) slides 4.2% in premarket trading as Citi cut its price target on the company to $425, the lowest on Wall Street, citing weaker consumer spending and potentially rising competition. US-listed Chinese stocks post broad-based gains in premarket trading, on track to rebound from a three-day drop, as sentiment toward tech stabilizes: Alibaba (BABA US) shares rise 3.8%, Baidu (BIDU US) +4%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) +4.2%, JD.com (JD US) +3.2% and Li Auto (LI US) +6.1% Braze (BRZE US) shares jump 8% in premarket trading after the company’s first-quarter revenue beat estimates, and full-year guidance also topped expectations. Arista (ANET US) shares decline 4.1% in US premarket trading as Morgan Stanley says in a note that the company, as well as Wiwynn and memory stocks such as SK Hynix and Micron (MU US) are among those most at risk in the semiconductor and networking equipment space when tech firms cut spending on data centers. Kaival Brands (KAVL US) shares surge as much as 57% in US premarket trading, after the vaping products distributor reached deal with Philip Morris to distribute electronic nicotine delivery systems products outside of the US. Outset Medical (OM US) shares fall 4.6% in premarket trading as their price target was cut to a Street-low at Cowen, after the medical technology firm halted shipments on its Tablo Hemodialysis System for home use. The company also suspended guidance for the year. US Silica (SLCA US) shares may be in focus after they were upgraded to outperform from inline at Evercore ISI following the conclusion of the industrial minerals firm’s review of its Industrial & Specialty Products (ISP) segment. With just two weeks left until the end of Q2, a dismal picture emerges: this quarter is set to deliver the biggest combined loss for global bonds and stocks on record, according to Bloomberg. The highest inflation in a generation, stoked by supply-chain and commodity-market disruptions amid China’s Covid struggles and the war in Ukraine, is roiling the outlook. According to Bloomberg,  the big question is whether the Fed and other major central banks will tip their economies into recession as they tighten financial conditions. We disagree: a recession is now assured; the real big question is how sparking a recession in the US will force Putin to pump more gas. European gains were shorter-lived: Euro Stoxx 50 reverses a 1.1% bounce to trade down 0.2%, extending its decline to a sixth day, on track for the longest losing streak since the start of the pandemic and the lowest closing level in 15 months. Retail, media and travel are the weakest Stoxx 600 sectors with broad-based sectoral gains fading as the session progresses. Bonds in most of Europe edged lower, but gilts bucked the trend after data showed spending power of UK households plunged as inflation eroded wage increases. Here are the biggest European movers: Fortum shares rose as much as 9.5%, while Uniper gained 6.1% as Finland is prepared to give Fortum time to sell its Russian power plants and follow other western energy companies out of Russia. Rates-sensitive banking stocks in Europe outperform Tuesday as Treasury yields drop following four consecutive days of increases that lifted the 10-year to the highest level since 2011. HSBC shares gain as much as 3.2%, Standard Chartered +3.2%, Nordea Bank +2.7%, ING +2.8% Wizz Air shares rise as much as 6.2% after Berenberg upgraded the airline to buy from hold, citing the long-term potential of its business, despite numerous recent challenges. Go-Ahead rises as much as 15% amid a potential bidding war. The company accepted a £648m takeover bid from an investor group backed by Australian rival Kinetic, while Kelsian is assessing whether to make offer. Saipem gains as much as 8.5% after five sessions of declines; the company and Trevi signed memorandum of understanding for foundation drilling solutions and services for offshore wind farm projects. Atos shares plunge as much as 27% after the company announced the departure of newly arrived CEO Rodolphe Belmer and a separation into two publicly listed companies. Akzo Nobel shares decline as much as 6.1% after the company reduced 2Q forecasts due to China lockdowns and slower start to EMEA DIY season. Air France-KLM shares fall as much as 13% after the company raised EU2.3b in a deeply discounted rights offering to help repay state aid received during the pandemic. Earlier in the session, Asian stock market indexes hit bleak milestones in quick succession on Tuesday as investor concerns worsened that aggressive interest rate increases in the US could erode corporate earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2% to its lowest level in a month after the world equities gauge entered a bear market overnight before paring losses. New Zealand’s stock index extended its decline to 20% from a peak reached last year, entering a bear market, while Singapore’s measure wiped out its gains for 2022. Traders are betting that the Fed will deliver a 75-basis-point rate increase in this week’s meeting -- the biggest since 1994 -- after US inflation hit a four-decade high in May. This is further muddying the economic outlook at a time supply chains are snarled, weighing on the valuation and profit estimates for the MSCI Asia index, which has lost 17% this year. “Bets are off for all asset classes as investors brace themselves for tough action from the Fed to counter higher-than-expected inflation,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners in Singapore. “The renewed lockdowns in China are also not going to be helpful.” Central banks from South Korea and Australia to India have been raising rates in response to accelerating inflation, with the latter two announcing 50-basis-point increases in their latest decisions. China’s persistent zero-Covid strategy is another factor disproportionately affecting companies in Asia. Singapore’s Straits Times Index is near a correction, down 9.7% from an April high, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index has dropped 12% over a similar period. Elsewhere, the MSCI Asean Index is inching closer to a 20% drop from a peak reached in January 2021, while South Korea’s Kospi remains mired in a bear market.  Still, investors have identified some potential areas of outperformance, as Asia’s stock measure has held up better than global peers as it continues to trade at a lower forward price-to-earnings ratio. And while China has walked back on loosening some Covid-19 restrictions in Beijing and Shanghai, traders see the country’s fiscal and monetary easing stance giving its beleaguered stocks a further boost.  “China might outperform global equities, as it did in May and early June,” if consumption resumes in the coming months after a relaxation in lockdowns, said Herald van der Linde, head of APAC equity strategy at HSBC Holdings Plc. Meanwhile, commodity-exporting Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, which are also benefiting from border reopenings, are expected to continue to shine. The Jakarta Composite Index rose on Tuesday, taking its advance to 7.1% this year. India was no exception to the global rout, and stock gauges fell to their lowest levels in 11-months as inflation and interest-rate concerns continued to fuel selloffs across global equity markets.  The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.3% to 52,693.57 in Mumbai after rising as much as 0.5% during the session. The NSE Nifty 50 Index dropped by an similar measure to its lowest since July 28. Both benchmarks have dropped more than 14% from October peaks. Foreign institutional investors have taken out $24.2 billion from local stocks this year through June 10, and the selloff is headed for its ninth consecutive month. However, the key indexes have still outperformed Asia Pacific and emerging-market peers this year, helped by net $26.4 billion of stock purchases by domestic investors, which include mutual funds and insurance companies. Consumer-price inflation in India has stayed above the central bank’s target in May while wholesale prices accelerated for a third-straight month as input costs continue to rise for manufacturers. “High inflationary environment, fresh curbs in China and rising crude oil prices are likely to keep the markets under pressure for a while,” Motilal Oswal analyst Siddhartha Khemka wrote in a note.  Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 1.3%. Among the 30 shares in the Sensex Index, 15 rose, 14 fell and one was unchanged. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as the greenback weakened against most of its Group-of-10 peers.  The euro rose from a one-month low against the dollar but still failed to retrace the recent plunge in a meaningful way. German June ZEW expectations came in at -28.0 versus estimate -26.8. Norway’s krone slumped to a fresh 4-week low against the euro after Norges Bank’s regional network report showed businesses were expecting growth to slow. Sweden’s krona got a temporary boost after inflation figures for May came in higher than the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. A Riksbank survey showed businesses, which are seeing sharp cost increases, are concerned that the coming wage bargaining rounds will lead to higher salary costs than in previous collective agreements. The Swiss franc led G-10 gains as it pared most of yesterday’s drop against the dollar. The pound edged up from a two-year low against the dollar. Sterling remained on the back foot after UK labour market data showed limited further tightening in the jobs market, suggesting that the BOE may raise interest rates by 25bps this week, rather than 50bps. Australian sovereign bonds plunged in catch-up to a two-day rout in Treasuries as the specter of a 75bps Fed hike on Wednesday loomed large. Aussie steadied following a bounce in US stock futures. USD/JPY consolidated. The Bank of Japan ramped up the defense of its policy framework after yields came under renewed upward pressure, unveiling a further set of unscheduled buying operations, including purchases of much longer maturities In rates, treasuries bull steepened with front-end yields richer by 8.5bp on the day into US morning session. S&P futures slightly higher, although remain near Monday session lows as investors continue to position ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision. Swaps market prices in just under 200bp of rate hikes over the next three meetings with 70bp priced into Wednesday’s decision. Three-month Libor fix jumps over 17bp. US yields richer by 8.5bp to 5bp across the curve with front-end led gains steepening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 2.1bp and 1.5bp; 10-year yields around 3.30% and outperforming bunds by 7bp on the day. IG dollar issuance slate; projections for the session remain murky amid markets turmoil and after a number of deals were put on ice Monday. Gilts put in a ~6bps parallel richening move across the curve. Bunds buck the trend, bear-steepening ahead of scheduled comments from ECB’s Schnabel on euro-area bond market fragmentation due later. In commodities, oil held above $120 a barrel as investors evaluated a tight supply outlook and the impact of China’s eventual return from virus curbs. WTI adds 0.7% to trade near $121.71, Brent holds above $123. Spot gold trades a narrow range, fading after hitting $1,830/oz. Base metals are mixed; LME tin falls 5.1% while LME zinc gains 0.3%. To the day ahead now. The ECB’s Schnabel speaks, while in data we get UK jobless claims, ILO unemployment rate, ZEW surveys for the Eurozone and Germany, US NFIB small business optimism and PPI, and Canadian manufacturing sales. Hold on to your hats. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.1% to 3,790.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 413.07 MXAP down 0.9% to 159.98 MXAPJ down 0.6% to 529.25 Nikkei down 1.3% to 26,629.86 Topix down 1.2% to 1,878.45 Hang Seng Index little changed at 21,067.99 Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,288.91 Sensex down 0.2% to 52,743.72 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 3.5% to 6,686.03 Kospi down 0.5% to 2,492.97 Brent Futures up 0.7% to $123.15/bbl Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,829.72 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.34% to 104.72 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.62% Euro up 0.6% to $1.0473 Brent Futures up 0.7% to $123.17/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The latest jumps in consumer prices and inflation expectations will probably spur Federal Reserve officials to consider the biggest interest-rate increase since 1994 when they meet this week, after Chair Jerome Powell previously signaled a smaller move was the likely outcome JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are withdrawing from handling trades of Russian debt after the Biden administration’s surprise announcement last week it’s banning US investors from scooping up such assets As the BOJ escalates attempts to keep a lid on bond yields, BlueBay is betting the central bank will be forced to abandon a policy that’s increasingly out of sync with global peers. The BOJ’s so- called yield curve control is “untenable,” according to Mark Dowding, BlueBay’s London-based chief investment officer Investor fears of stagflation are at the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, while global growth optimism has sunk to a record low, according to Bank of America Corp.’s monthly fund manager survey A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pacific stocks were pressured following the global stock and bond slump as the aftershock from recent hot US inflation reverberated across risk assets and spurred further expectations for a 75bps Fed rate hike this week. ASX 200 was the worst performer as the losses caught up to the index on return from the extended weekend and with the declines led by underperformance in tech and metals. Nikkei 225 extended its declines despite the BoJ’s efforts to cap yields and with the recent rapid currency moves adding to the uncertainty. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were negative as lockdown concerns lingered with China’s Vice Premier Sun suggesting it is necessary to strengthen COVID-19 prevention and control of key places, while Shanghai's Minhang district plans to conduct mass testing on Saturday. Top Asian News Shanghai's Minhang district is planning mass COVID-19 testing on Saturday, according to Bloomberg. BoJ announced additional bond purchases for Wednesday in which it will increase purchases of JGBs across several maturities, while it will continue to conduct additional buying as needed, according to Reuters. European bourses began on the front-foot but quickly slipped into negative territory, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%; since the post-open dip, price action has steadily deteriorated further. However, while US futures are directionally in-fitting they remain in positive territory, ES +0.3%; albeit, well of highs and the ES resides around 3760 currently awaiting Fed clarity amid increasing speculation for 75bp. Oracle Corp (ORCL) Q4 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.54 (exp. 1.37), Revenue 11.8bln (exp. 11.66bln). Cloud License And On-Premise License: 2.54bln (exp. 2.19bln). Cloud Services And Licenses Support: 7.6bln (exp. 7.77bln). Total Hardware Revenues: 856mln (exp. 857.71mln). Total Services Revenues: 833mln (exp. 847.89mln). Added USD 15.8bln after Cerner acquisition and it expects cloud business to grow by over 30% in FY23; Co. expects Q1 rev. including Cerner to grow 17%-19%. (PR Newswire) +12% in the pre-market. German cartel office has commenced proceedings against Apple (AAPL) re. tracking regulations for 3rd party apps, via Reuters. Top European News The EU is set to launch three separate lawsuits against the British government after it published its plans to override the protocol, according to the Telegraph. One option would reportedly see the EU end financial equivalence for the City of London. US urged the UK and EU to return to talks to resolve differences over the Northern Ireland Protocol and said it remains a priority to protect gains of the Good Friday Agreement. White House said proposed changes to N. Ireland Protocol won't be an impediment to potential US-UK trade deal or trade dialogue talks in Boston, according to Reuters. UK PM Johnson is not looking to lower household taxes until inflation is brought under control, as such action is unlikely before next year, according to the Telegraph. FX Dollar consolidates after Monday’s melt up to new multi year peaks as clock ticks down to FOMC and US PPI data; DXY hovers around 105.00 and just shy of new 105.290 YTD high. Franc outperforms following suspension of trade in Russia against Rouble and Greenback; Usd/Chf probes 0.9000 to downside after pulling up only pips short of parity yesterday. Euro rebounds amidst more hawkish commentary from ECB’s Knot and irrespective of German ZEW survey misses; EUR/USD back above 1.0400 and decent option expiries between 1.0420-15. Aussie undermined by waning risk appetite and ongoing covid outbreaks in China, but underpinned by RBA Governor Lowe underlining determination to get inflation back to target, AUD/USD towards lower end of 0.6970-18 range. Pound fades after brief upturn in bigger than expected rise in UK employment as other labour market metrics fall short of expectations and EU rift over NI protocol persists; Cable on the cusp of 1.2100 after fleeting breach of round above, EUR/GBP crosses 0.8600 to set fresh 2 month apex. Fixed Income Recovery in EZ debt derailed by supply and hawkish remarks from ECB's Knot as Bunds retreat to 145.00 within a 145.58-144.51 range Gilts and 10 year T-note hold up better between 112.97-29 and 116-03/115-01+ parameters in consolidation after Monday's rout and ahead of US PPI data ** BTP/Bund** spread blows out beyond 250 bp in advance of ECB's Schnabel on fragmentation in bond markets Commodities WTI and Brent are firmer by circa. USD 1.0/bbl at present and reside towards the mid-point of a USD ~2.00/bbl range with specific newsflow thin and broader developments on familiar themes. Themes which include China COVID and travel demand, for instance; but, factors which are overshadowed by broader anticipation going into Wednesday's FOMC. US and Saudi Arabia will announce on Tuesday that US President Biden will visit Saudi Arabia on July 15th and 16th, according to NBC's Pegram citing sources. China's state planner is to increase retail prices of gasoline and diesel by CNY 390/tonne and CNY 375/tonne respectively as of June 15th, via NDRC. Spot gold is essentially unchanged on the session around USD 1820/oz after falling below the 10-, 21- & 200-DMAs yesterday; Copper softer amid broader risk. US Event Calendar 08:30: May PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 0.5%; YoY, est. 10.9%, prior 11.0% 08:30: May PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4%; YoY, est. 8.6%, prior 8.8% 08:30: May PPI Final Demand DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Where do we start this morning after as action packed a 24 hours as I can remember. The global equity and bond sell-off would have been bad anyway but the late US session headlines from a WSJ article (written by a journalist close to the Fed) that suggested the FOMC may need to surprise with a +75bp hike tomorrow was the last straw. Before we delve into the article and more detail on markets let’s take a one para overview of all the main market highlights. To start with, 2yr USTs capped their largest two-day move (+54.3bps, +29.1bps yesterday), since the week following Lehman’s collapse, while 10yr Treasuries have risen +31.8bps over the last two days (+20.4bps yesterday), the largest such move since December 2010, bringing the 10yr to 3.36%, the highest since 2011. Meanwhile, the 2s10s yield curve swung around violently before closing in inverted territory (-0.3bps) again for the first time since the first days of April and for only the 15th day out of the 3907 business days since May 2007. The historic moves didn’t end with the Treasury market, as Italian 10yr BTP yields (+26.2bps) crossed 4.0% for the first time since 2014, the crossover index widened +32.3bps to 534bps, its widest level since 2012 outside of peak initial Covid widening, Bitcoin fell -15.13% to its lowest since late 2020 and is down another -5.23% this morning, the S&P 500 (-3.88%) finally entered bear market territory (-21.8% from its YTD peaks), while the dollar index surged to its highest level since 2002. So quite a ride although as we'll see below risk is doing a bit better this morning with yields relatively flat. Going through things in more detail, the Treasury market has been at the epicentre of this sell-off after the shocking CPI from last Friday. Yields were drifting higher all day as some on the Street officially updated their call for +75bp on Wednesday and openly considered whether the Fed will need a +100bp hike. The WSJ report then later threw gasoline on the already raging fire, noting the Fed was indeed “considering surprising markets with a larger-than expected” +75bp hike as early as this week given Friday’s alarming CPI and inflation expectations data. All-in, Fed funds futures moved to price in a 94% chance of a +75bp hike on Wednesday. So a +75bp hike on Wednesday won’t come as a surprise anymore. At the end of the day, 2yr yields gained +29.1bps yesterday and +25.2bps Friday, bringing the rate to 3.35%. The 2s10s yield curve inverted, closing the day at -0.3bps, as 10yr yields climbed +11.4bps Friday and +20.4bps yesterday, bringing rates to 3.36%, their highest level since April 2011. As we go to press this morning, 2yr yields are up another 2bps with 10yr yields fractionally higher, thus inverting the curve a little more. US PPI today will be closely watched for the next inflation impulse. The policy rate at end 2022 implied by fed funds futures closed at 3.72%, its highest to date by some margin, and implies just shy of +300bps of tightening over 5 meetings. Markets also moved to price in a terminal rate above 4% in the middle of next year, closer to DB's call which has been the most aggressive on the street. It’s perhaps an understatement to say the market will be hyper focused on how the Fed communicates the near-term path of policy at this week’s FOMC, especially including what size rate hikes they’re considering as adequate for the rest of the year. The selloff was echoed in Europe, where 10yr bunds (+11.5bps), OATs (+15.4bps), and BTPs (+26.2bps) all soldoff, even before the blockbuster WSJ report. ECB speakers returned to the docket after last week’s meeting, where Governing Council member Kazmir noted there was a clear need for a +50bp hike in September, in line with our European economics team’s call. Kazmir went on to warn that the economy faces weak growth for several quarters, piling onto what the market had already deduced – the sharp global repricing in monetary policy would weigh on growth. One of the major fears following the ECB meeting was that absent a new tool designed to stem fragmentation, peripheral spreads would widen out, and yesterday brought a fresh round of peripheral widening, with 10yr Italian spreads widening +14.6bps to bunds, with Spanish bonds widening +9.9bps. Indeed, 10yr BTPs crossed 4.0% for the first time since 2014. Equity markets got the message, selling off across the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 falling -3.87% into bear market territory, down -21.82% from the all-time highs reached in early January, with the STOXX 600 down -2.41%. At one point, every single share in the S&P 500 was lower, though the index staged a heroic rally leaving 5 shares higher on the day. That’s the lowest amount since June 11, 2020 when only one share advanced. Unsurprisingly, every S&P 500 sector was lower, with all but two sectors declining by more than 3%. The NASDAQ fell -4.68% on the hit from higher discount rates, now -32.68% from its November high. Mega-cap shares bore the brunt of higher discount rates, with the FANG+ falling -6.50%, its worst day since September 2020, and -40.98% lower from its own all-time highs reached in November. Markets are trying to bounce this morning with S&P 500 futures +1% and Nasdaq futures +1.15% As we discussed yesterday, this sharp rates repricing is partly due to another attempt at forward guidance from the Fed. Having signalled 50bps at the next two meetings a few weeks ago they reduced volatility. However when it became clear that this guidance may be insufficient it has opened up a market attack. The last man standing continues to be the BoJ and to be honest the more the market attacks the Fed and the ECB the more likely it is that the BoJ own forward guidance (in the form of YCC) will end very messily with huge implications for global rates. If the BoJ throws in the towel in H2 then global bond markets lose a huge anchor. Certainly one to watch for every morning when you wake up! Indeed the BOJ ramped up its scheduled purchases of 5-to-10-year debt today from an expected ¥500 billion to ¥800 billion as the yield on the 10yr JGBs jumped to 0.255%, edging past the upper end of the central bank’s 0.25% target range. Talking of Asia, equity markets are lower this morning but markets are trying to fight back. The Nikkei (-2.00%) is the largest underperformer with the Hang Seng (-1.15%) and Kospi (-1.11%) also lagging. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (-1.60%) and CSI (-1.86%) are also lower. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 is -4.54% lower after returning to trade following a holiday yesterday. In such a broad-based selloff, many would have been interested in how crypto assets would hold up, supposedly uncorrelated with traditional assets. However, digital assets did not escape the wrath of plummeting risk sentiment, with bitcoin falling -15.13% and down another -5.28% this morning as we type. At one point this morning, Bitcoin fell about -10% to trade at $20,823 before recovering a little. There were reports that some exchanges were having trouble liquidating holdings of various crypto assets. This is a classic deleveraging and unwinding of a bubble trade. To the day ahead now. The ECB’s Schnabel speaks, while in data we get UK jobless claims, ILO unemployment rate, ZEW surveys for the Eurozone and Germany, US NFIB small business optimism and PPI, and Canadian manufacturing sales. Hold on to your hats. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/14/2022 - 07:49.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 14th, 2022

Futures Rise Ahead Of Hawkish ECB Meeting

Futures Rise Ahead Of Hawkish ECB Meeting US index futures turned positive on Thursday, even as European stock slipped ahead of the ECB decision at 745am ET, with Nasdaq 100 contracts outperforming as oil prices and bond yields stabilized and strategists at Goldman and JPMorgan gave more bullish comments on equities. Sentiment was boosted after Bloomberg reported that China’s crackdown on internet companies may be easing with a revival of the Ant Group IPO, which boosted the country’s US-traded stocks (the news was since refuted by China, but moments later Reuters re-reported what Bloomberg said). S&P 500 futures traded 22 points or 0.5% higher, and Nasdaq 100 futs were 0.4% higher. The dollar slid, and 10Y rates were flat at 3.02%. Markets remain fixated on the risk that central banks intent on cooling inflation snuff out economic recoveries in the process. Money markets have priced in 36.5 basis points of tightening to the ECB’s rate by next month’s meeting, just short of a 50% chance of a half-a-percentage point increase, which would be the first since 2000. “To rein in surging prices the Fed has to increase rates, which can result in a recession,” Geir Lode, head of global equities at Federated Hermes, wrote in a note. “However, the pandemic-induced supply-chain shock and the Ukraine conflict are beyond the central bank’s control. In this environment we need to be lucky to avoid stagflation that could last for a long time.” While the ECB isn’t expected to raise official borrowing costs, President Christine Lagarde signaled in a blog post last month that the central bank will end bond purchases this month, and hike once in July and again in September, lifting the deposit rate from minus 0.5% to zero. Some investors see a new tone reaching beyond the official line as central bankers succumb to huge pressure to rein in record inflation at more than four times their target of 2%. Peers at the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia have hiked in 50-basis point increments this year. “Chances are that the ECB will have a hawkish pivot today,” Carol Kong, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said on Bloomberg Television. In US premarket trading, Alibaba Group was among the best performers - at least initially - as it pumped, dumped and then rose again after several conflicting reports that Chinese regulators are considering a potential revival of the initial public offering by Jack Ma’s Ant Group. Tesla gained 3% after an upgrade to Buy from UBS and after the company said its deliveries of cars made in China doubled in May compared with April and as UBS recommended buying the stock. Bank stocks also traded higher in premarket trading as the US 10-year Treasury yield hovered just above 3%. In corporate news, Credit Suisse shares dropped after its CEO Thomas Gottstein said he wouldn’t comment on State Street’s reported interest in the Swiss bank. Here are all the notable premarket movers: Five Below (FIVE US) shares decline 7.3% in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year guidance, while analysts trimmed their targets for the stock, but were broadly positive on the firm’s longterm prospects. Spotify (SPOT US) shares could be in focus today as analysts were positive on the streaming giant’s forecast that its podcasting business will turn profitable as the company focuses on more non-music segments like audiobooks. Travel stocks could be active on Thursday following Expedia CEO Peter Kern’s bullish comments on summer travel. Keep an eye on Delta (DAL US), United (UAL US), Marriott (MAR US), Expedia (EXPE US), Airbnb (ABNB US) and Booking Holdings (BKNG US) among others Watch Oxford Industries (OXM US) shares after the company reported results, as Citi says that there is no sign of consumer weakness in any part of the branded apparel retailer’s business. Ollie’s Bargain (OLLI US) stock may be in focus as RBC Capital Markets upgraded the discount retailer to outperform, saying that despite another tough quarter, its fundamentals should improve in the back-half and beyond. In Europe, equities slipped ahead of a European Central Bank decision that will put the region’s monetary policy on a path of tightening and help close the gap with global peers. Real-estate companies and retailers led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index 0.5% lower. EDF jumped the most in three months, after a newspaper report that the new French government is studying two options for the electricity giant’s nationalization, including a buyout offer. Here are the most notable European movers: EDF shares rise as much as 8.3% after Les Echos newspaper reported that nationalization is among priorities for new government after this month’s legislative elections alongside combating inflation and pension reform. Prosus gains as much as 7.4% in Amsterdam and Naspers gains as much as 6.8% in Johannesburg following a report that Chinese financial regulators are considering reviving the IPO of Jack Ma’s Ant Group. Tate & Lyle advances as much as 4.4% after the company reported FY22 results that beat estimates. The FY23 outlook suggests upgrades to consensus estimates, according to Jefferies. Beiersdorf rises as much as 7.8% after the company said in a Capital Markets Day presentation on its website that it targets above-market organic sales growth at its consumer unit in the medium term. Credit Suisse drops as much as 4.9% after State Street declined to comment on a report that it was looking to acquire the Swiss bank. Separately, Bloomberg reported that Credit Suisse is tapping the brakes on its China expansion. CMC Markets falls as much as 19% after cutting its dividend and saying it was boosting spending on new hires, product development and marketing as the firm seeks to diversify amid a fading retail trading boom. Wizz Air drops as much as 8.3%, extending Wednesday’s 9.5% decline after the company gave guidance for an operating loss for the first quarter, while analysts also noted their concern about pricing trends. Asian stocks slipped as technology and financial firms declined and higher oil prices stoked concerns about inflation.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%, trimming its gain this week. Chip stocks declined after a warning on demand from Intel Corp., with the Hang Seng Tech Index sliding more than 1%, a breather after its recent rally. Australian banks were among the biggest contributors to the regional benchmark’s loss.  “We are seeing profit-taking moves after Chinese stocks rose a lot in recent sessions,” said Xue Hua Cui, a China equity analyst at Meritz Securities in Seoul. “There are also renewed concerns about the second-quarter corporate earnings.” Australia’s broad benchmark was among the biggest decliners in Asia Pacific as bank stocks slumped on concerns about valuations and macroeconomic risks. Shares in Singapore and Malaysia also fell. South Korean equities erased early-day losses to close nearly flat on options expiry, while Japanese peers also finished little changed amid the yen’s extended weakness.  Read: Australian Bank Stocks Take $32 Billion Hit on Rate Concerns Stocks in much of the region held losses after data showed Chinese exports jumped more than expected in May, while a mini-lockdown weighed on market sentiment. Even with Thursday’s dip, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index remained on track for its fourth straight weekly gain, which would be its longest winning streak since early 2021 Japanese stocks traded in a narrow range as investors continued to worry about inflation and growth while the yen extended losses to a fresh 20-year low.  The Topix Index was virtually unchanged at 1,969.05 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 was stable at 28,246.53. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 937 rose and 1,105 fell, while 128 were unchanged. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.4% to close at 7,019.70, its lowest level since May 12. Banks contributed the most to the benchmark’s slump on growing concerns that faster monetary policy tightening might increase housing-market risks and pressure valuations.  Magellan was the top performer after saying co-founder Hamish Douglass will resume working with the business in a new consultancy role. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 11,211.31. In India, stock gauges advanced for the first session in five, helped by a surge in Reliance Industries and energy companies on the improving outlook for refining margin and software exporters extending recovery.  The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.8% to 55,320.28 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index gained 0.7%. Both indexes are still headed for weekly drops of about 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively, their first decline in four weeks. “With policy rate announcements now behind us, investors lapped up stocks that were in a downward spiral for quite some time,” Kotak Securities analyst Shrikant Chouhan said in a note. The market may witness select bouts, but volatility is expected to remain over the near-to-medium term, he added.  Reliance Industries provided the biggest boost to the key gauges, increasing 2.7%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 21 rose and 9 fell In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed as the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers. The euro fluctuated around $1.07. Bunds and Italian bonds swung between modest gains and losses. Options pricing in the euro and spot swings suggest not everyone is convinced that the euro will rally after the ECB meeting, which leaves ample room for an advance on a hawkish decision. The yen rebounded after touching a fresh two-decade low against the dollar and seven-year lows against the Australian dollar and the euro, as traders adjusted positions before the ECB. Speculators are gathering around the beleaguered yen and positioning is by no means extended, suggesting there’s still room for bears to pile in. The New Zealand dollar inched up and the nation’s 10-year yield hit a seven-year high after the RBNZ announced plans to offload QE bond holdings. One beneficiary of a hawkish pivot by the ECB would be the euro. The common currency has been bogged down by concerns over euro-area growth while a resurgent dollar and hawkish Fed pushed it to a five-year low against the US currency last month. The euro traded little changed against the dollar at $1.07. “If we do see Christine Lagarde leaning toward a 50 basis-points hike in July, that’s going to be very supportive of the euro-dollar,” Kong said. In rates, Treasuries are narrowly mixed with the yield flatter ahead of ECB rate decision at 7:45am ET and 30-year bond reopening, the last of this week’s coupon auctions. 2-year TSY yields rose to 2.80%, highest level since May 4 YTD high. 10-year little changed at 3.02%, underperforming bunds while gilts trail. US front-end cheapening flattens 2s10s by ~1bp on the day toward lowest level since May 25; as previewed before, the ECB is expected to announce imminent end to large-scale asset purchases, opening the door for interest-rate hikes at the July meeting; swaps price in around 30bp of rate- hike premium. Looking at today's auction we have a $19BN 30-year bond reopening which follows Wednesday’s mediocre 10-year, which tailed by 1.2bp. WI 30-year yield at ~3.16% is above auction stops since 2018 and ~16bp cheaper than May’s, which stopped 0.9bp through. German bonds and the euro are steady ahead of the ECB’s meeting later Thursday, where traders will look for clues on whether the bank will raise rates by 25bps or 50bps in July. Money markets don’t expect a hike today, and currently bet on 36bps next month, and about 132bps by the end of the year. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany.  Both gilt and Treasury curves flatten.  In commodities, WTI trades within Wednesday’s range around the $122 level. Most base metals trade in the red; LME nickel falls 2.9%, underperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $3 to trade near $1,850/oz To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned ECB decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. We’ll also hear from Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, and data releases today include the US weekly initial jobless claims. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,130.75 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 437.16 MXAP down 0.4% to 168.75 MXAPJ down 0.6% to 557.70 Nikkei little changed at 28,246.53 Topix little changed at 1,969.05 Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 21,869.05 Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,238.95 Sensex up 0.2% to 54,988.33 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.4% to 7,019.75 Kospi little changed at 2,625.44 Brent Futures down 0.4% to $123.07/bbl Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,848.12 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 102.62 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.35% Euro down 0.1% to $1.0701 Top overnight News from Bloomberg The ECB is set to announce an imminent end to large-scale asset purchases, paving the way for the first increase in interest rates in more than a decade next month Traders are betting the BOE will deliver a historic half-point interest-rate hike by September to wrest control of inflation running at the fastest pace in four decades Judging by the latest comments, the yen’s exchange rate still has some way to go before Japan’s finance ministry would consider intervention to prop up the currency via actual purchase operations, something it has avoided for more than two decades. With the US more likely to be against any moves to weaken the dollar, Japan faces the problem that actual intervention may not be effective Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida appears to be counting on the Bank of Japan to keep borrowing costs near rock-bottom levels as his government paves the way for continued spending even after a record-breaking pandemic splurge and with the yen languishing at two-decade lows Riksbank Deputy Governor Anna Breman said all options are on the table for the June policy meeting as speculation grows over whether the Swedish central bank needs to speed up its interest rate increases China’s exports rebounded in May as Covid-related bottlenecks on production and logistics clear up, but a slowdown looms this year as global consumer demand for goods cools, weakening trade’s ability to act as a driver for economic growth A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were subdued following a weak handover from the US and with sentiment cautious. ASX 200 was pressured by underperformance in the top-weighted financials sector and weakness in property-related stocks also suffering amid expectations of aggressive RBA rate hikes which increases banks’ funding costs and could threaten the quality of their loan portfolios. Nikkei 225 kept afloat as participants contemplated the ramifications of further currency depreciation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were lacklustre despite the mostly better than expected Chinese trade data as some COVID concerns resurfaced in Shanghai with the city locking down the Minhang district on Saturday morning for mass COVID testing. Asia headlines Shanghai will lockdown the Minhang district on Saturday morning for mass COVID-19 testing, according to Bloomberg; additionally, Beijing's Chaoyang district is to close all entertainment venues from 14:00 local time (07:00BST) for COVID containment. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said China is guilty of unfair trade practices but some tariffs on Chinese goods do not serve US strategic interests and the Biden administration is looking to reconfigure tariffs in a way that would be more strategic, according to Bloomberg. Japan is planning to expand its prefectural travel subsidies across the entire country, according to Yomiuri. RBNZ outlined plans to sell New Zealand government bonds from July 2022 in which it intends to offload NZD 5bln per fiscal year in order of maturity date until its LSAP holdings are reduced to zero, according to Reuters. Equities are, overall, struggling for clear direction in relatively cautious trade going into ECB; Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%. Bourses, and US futures, were lifted amid further constructive China tech developments, this time for Ant Group; albeit, we have drifted modestly off best since, ES +0.3%. China is said to be mulling reviving Jack Ma's Ant IPO, with reports framing it as an easing in crackdowns from China, according to Bloomberg sources. *Click here for analysis/reaction. China PCA Retail Passenger Vehicle Sales (May): -17.3% YY; Tesla (TSLA) 32.2k (prev. 33.5k YY). Walgreens Boots Alliance's (WBA) Boots has received a non-binding bid from Apollo Global Management and Reliance Industries, according to FT sources. European headlines Hawkish Lagarde Is Not Fully Priced In the Euro: ECB Cheat Sheet Traders Bet BOE Will Join Peers in Historic Half-Point Rate Hike European Gas Soars as Fire in US Compounds Russia Supply Concern Italy’s Eni to List Renewable Unit Plenitude in Milan FirstGroup Rejects £1.2 Billion Takeover Bid From I Squared FX Yen finally finds some friends amidst less hostile yield environment and supportive risk backdrop; USD/JPY retreats just over 100 pips around 134.00 and EUR/JPY almost 150 pips from 144.00+ peak. DXY remains anchored around 102.500 ahead of Friday’s US CPI data and as Euro pivots 1.0700 pre-ECB; EUR/USD flanked by decent option expiries as well from 1.0750-55 to 1.0605-00 on the downside. Kiwi underpinned after RBNZ outlines schedule for balance sheet rundown; NZD/USD hovers near 0.6450, AUD/NZD sub-1.1150 with AUD/USD capped into 0.7200. Rand continues bull run with extra incentive from wider than forecast SA current account surplus, USD/ZAR straddling 15.2500. Lira rout resumes following fleeting respite on prospect of capital controls raised by S&P, USD/TRY above 17.2200. Yuan retains bulk of Chinese trade data related gains even though parts of Beijing and Shanghai reimpose restrictive Covid measures; USD/CNH closer to 6.6700 than 6.7100, USD/CNY settles sub-6.7000 vs circa 6.7000 high. Fixed Income Bunds choppy and lagging Eurozone periphery within 149.17-148.52 range pre-ECB, as focus falls on fragmentation along with rate and QE guidance Gilts underperforming between 114.86-42 parameters as BoE tightening expectations rise and drag Sonia strip down US Treasuries flat-lining ahead of jobless claims and long bond supply, with 10 year T-note just above par inside tight 118-07/117-26+ band Commodities WTI and Brent are steady after giving up overnight gains with participants cautious and cognizant of China's fluid COVID situation. Currently, the benchmarks are sub-USD 122/bbl and USD 123.50/bbl respectively, vs highs of 122.72 and 124.34. Magnitude 5.6 earthquake hits the Antofagasta region in Chile, according to EMSC. Spot gold is sub-USD1850/oz, having slipped below its falling 10-DMA but holding above the overlapping 200- & 21-DMAs at USD 1842/oz. Central Banks Riksbank's Breman says she will support doing what is required to attain the inflation target, including more hikes than are currently in the path; adding, to control inflation back to target, need to act now. Does not exclude a 50bps hike at the next meeting.   Hungarian Finance Minister says the Hungary has issued FX bonds totalling USD 3bln and EUR 750mln; follows the NBH maintaining its one-week deposit rate at 6.75%. US Event Calendar 08:30: May Continuing Claims, est. 1.3m, prior 1.31m 08:30: June Initial Jobless Claims, est. 206,000, prior 200,000 12:00: 1Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior $5.3t DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I kicked off Day 1 of our annual European LevFin conference in London yesterday and we had a record attendance of over 1100 issuers and investors. It was the first in-person version since 2019 and if this conference is anything to go by, people still like the personal contacts that such an event brings. I also had a dinner at the event last night so I’m a bit shattered this morning so bear with me. This conference has been going now for 26 years at DB and the headline acts at the post conference entertainment have in the past included, The Killers, Duran Duran, Cheryl Crow, Dire Straits, The Corrs, The Sugababes, Stevie Wonder and Bon Jovi. Last night’s entertainment was a pub quiz. How times have changed. If you think the above means Zoom is dead then think again, as I’ll be doing a Zoom webinar next Wednesday (June 15th) at 2pm on my annual Default Study (“The End of the ultra-low default world?”), published earlier this week, that I presented at the conference. Please click here to register, and here to see the report itself. The day before this (June 14th), also at 2pm London time, a selection of our heads of trading and research desks will do a call on the near-term macro outlook across rates, FX, EM, equities and credit. Please click here to register. As I recover from the heckling of telling High Yield investors that defaults are coming, we arrive at the business end of the week with a big 36 hours ahead with the ECB meeting today, and US CPI tomorrow, looming large! And then don’t forget the FOMC, BoE and BoJ meetings next week. Markets approach this busy period on the nervous side with rates and equities selling off over the last 24 hours, and that’s still the case in much of Asia in this morning’s trading. Starting with Europe, sovereign bond yields hit fresh highs yesterday as investors have come to view a potential 50bp hike at some point this year as an increasingly likely possibility. In fact by the close of trade yesterday, overnight index swaps were pricing in 132bps worth of ECB hikes by the December meeting, which is the highest to date and more than double the 63bps of hikes expected after their last meeting in mid-April. So if they don’t hike until July as is widely expected, that implies at least one 50bp move is being fully priced in by year-end. In their preview last week (link here), our European economists agreed with this assessment that a 50bp hike is likely soon, and their view is that one of the two hikes in Q3 will be a 50bp hike, with September being more likely than July. After that, they then see the ECB reverting to continuous back-to-back 25bp hikes until they reach a terminal deposit rate of 2% in mid-summer 2023, although there’s a risk of a second 50bp hike before policy rates reach neutral. In terms of today’s decision however, they expect the ECB to confirm that APP net purchases will cease at the end of June, and that their new staff forecasts will show inflation at 2.0% in 2024, thus satisfying the liftoff criteria. When it comes to new guidance, their view is that the three conditions for policy rate liftoff are likely to be replaced by new guidance on the speed and extent of the hiking cycle. And finally on TLTRO, they expect the end of the TLTRO discount to be confirmed and the ECB to pledge a smooth transmission of monetary tightening through the banking system. With all that in mind, European yields moved higher through the day, with those on 10yr bunds (+6.2bps) and OATs (+7.0bps) both rising to their highest levels since 2014. The selloff was more pronounced among peripheral debt, with yields on 10yr Italian (+8.8bps) and Spanish (+8.2bps) debt seeing even larger rises, although the spread of both over bunds was still tighter than their recent peak last week. There are signs of growing nervousness elsewhere too, with EURUSD overnight implied volatility at its highest level right now since the US presidential election in November 2020. Meanwhile, those at the more hawkish end of the Governing Council received further support yesterday from data revisions, with Euro Area growth in Q1 revised up to show a +0.6% expansion (vs. +0.3% previously). This investor concern about rate hikes and persistent inflation was bad news for equities, first in Europe where the STOXX 600 (-0.57%) fell for a second day running and then extending to a late sell-off across the Atlantic, where the S&P 500 fell -1.08%, with only energy (+0.15%) managing to end the day in the green. This brings the index to +0.18% for the week, as it enters yet another late week showdown to see if it can manage to stay in positive territory. The decline came as 10yr Treasuries eclipsed the 3% mark again, closing up +4.8bps at 3.02%, and we’re up another +1.5 bps higher this morning at 3.036%. The impact of tighter monetary policy extended beyond risk assets and showed some signs of being felt in the real economy, too, with the number of mortgage applications in the US falling to a 22-year low in the week ending June 3. These inflationary worries for investors and central banks were aggravated further by a fresh rise in commodity prices. Oil prices saw further gains, and Brent Crude (+2.50%) moved back above $123/bbl again, inching ever closer to their post-invasion peak levels despite news of OPEC supply expansion and US reserve releases. That trend has continued this morning, with Brent crude up a further +0.33% at $123.98/bbl. WTI (+2.26%) moved above $122/bbl as well, so not far from its peak closing level following the invasion of $123.70/bbl. US natural gas prices displayed a lot of volatility, hitting a post-2008 high intraday before crashing into the close to finish down -6.39% following reports of a fire at a terminal used for exporting, keeping supplies stateside. European natural gas futures fell for a 6th consecutive session to hit another post-Ukraine invasion low of €78.41/MWh. Those losses on Wall Street have carried over into Asia overnight as that rally in oil prices has ramped up worries about inflation and the outlook for interest rates. The Hang Seng (-0.24%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.49%) and the CSI 300 (-0.64%) are all in negative territory, as is the Kospi (-0.31%), although the Nikkei (+0.26%) is up as the weaker Yen has raised hopes for an earnings improvement. Indeed yesterday, the Yen fell a further -1.22% against the US Dollar to close at a 20-year low of 134.25 Yen per dollar, having at one point traded at an intraday low of 134.47. Bear in mind that its intraday low so far in the 21st century was at 135.15 back in January 2002, so we’re not far off reaching levels unseen since the 1990s, although this morning it’s strengthened a touch to 134.06. Outside of Asia, stock futures in the US and Europe are pointing to additional losses today with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.10%), NASDAQ 100 (-0.11%) and DAX (-0.44%) edging lower. Finally on the data front, China’s May exports advanced +16.9% y/y, beating analyst estimates for a +8.0% rise and faster than the +3.9% increase in April. At the same time, the nation’s trade surplus grew to $78.76 bn in May, (vs. $57.7 bn expected) and compared to a $51.12 bn surplus in April. Separately, German industrial production grew by a weaker-than-expected +0.7% in April (vs. +1.2% expected), which comes on the back of an unexpected contraction in factory orders the previous day. To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned ECB decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. We’ll also hear from Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, and data releases today include the US weekly initial jobless claims. Tyler Durden Thu, 06/09/2022 - 07:45.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytJun 9th, 2022

Market Rout Extends With Futures Tumbling To Verge Of Bear Market

Market Rout Extends With Futures Tumbling To Verge Of Bear Market US stock futures slumped again, extending yesterday’s brutal selloff that erased $1.5 trillion in market value on concerns about everything from slowing growth, to Chinese lockdowns, to soaring inflation and tightening monetary policy. Contracts on the S&P 500 were down 1.2% 7:30 a.m. in New York, having earlier dropped to 3,856, one point away sliding 20% from January's all time highs, and triggering a bear market. The underlying index tumbled 4% on Wednesday, the most since June 2020, as consumer shares cratered after Target slashed its profit forecast due to a surge in costs. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.2%. 10Y TSY Yields slumped about 7bps, dropping to 2.833, while the dollar also dropped after yesterday's surge; bitcoin was flat around $29K. The retail rout continued on Thursday: shares of US retailers again tumbled in premarket trading amid growing worries over the impact of rising inflation and the ability of companies to pass on higher costs to consumers; with Bath & Body Works becoming the latest retailer to cut its guidance. Major technology and internet stocks were also down, pointing to further losses in major technology and internet stocks a day after the tech-heavy Nasdaq slumped to its lowest since November 2020. Apple (AAPL US) -1.2%, Microsoft (MSFT US) -1.2%, Meta Platforms (FB US) -1.1%, Netflix (NFLX US) -0.9% and Nvidia (NVDA US) -2.2% in premarket trading. US rail stocks may be in focus as Citi cuts ratings on Norfolk Southern (NSC US), Union Pacific (UNP US) and US Xpress Enterprises (USX US) to neutral from buy, while lowering 2023 estimates “across the board.”Here are some other notable movers: Cisco Systems (CSCO US) plunged 13% in premarket trading after the network-gear maker spooked investors with a warning that Chinese lockdowns and other supply disruptions would wipe out sales growth in the current quarter. Shares of networking equipment makers drop after Cisco cuts outlook, with Broadcom (AVGO US) -3.6% and Juniper Networks (JNPR US) -5.9% in premarket trading. Synopsys (SNPS US) rises 3.8% in premarket trading after the supplier of software used to design semiconductors boosted its profit and revenue guidance for the full year. Target (TGT US) shares fall 2.2% in premarket trading, Walmart (WMT US) -0.3%; Kohl’s (KSS US) is in focus after two senior executives depart Under Armour (UAA US) shares dropped as much as 6% in US premarket trading, with analysts saying that the departure of the sportswear maker’s CEO Patrik Frisk is a surprise and adds uncertainty. Bath & Body Works’s (BBWI US) outlook cut was a little greater than expected, though analysts noted that it was due to higher costs and investment. The company’s shares fell almost 4% in premarket trading. United Wholesale Mortgage (UWMC US) will struggle to main its 1Q earnings level in coming quarters, Piper Sandler says in a note downgrading the stock to underweight from neutral. Shares drop as much as 7% in US premarket trading. The S&P 500 is on track for its longest weekly losing streak since 2001 as traders flee risk assets over fears that the Federal Reserve will push the economy into a recession as it tries to curb inflation. The benchmark is close to falling into a bear market, after dropping 18% from a record high in January. "The US selloff was rather orderly and the market isn’t oversold, yet. That tells us that we are likely not at the bottom yet,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy, accounting and sustainability at Liberum Capital. “Consumer sentiment remains depressed and we are seeing consumers retrenching on some discretionary spending.”  Speaking on Tuesday in his most hawkish remarks to date, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank will keep raising interest rates until there is “clear and convincing” evidence that inflation is in retreat. JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, meanwhile, said - what else - that things can get better for US stocks. “There will be no recession this year, some summer increase in consumer activity on the back of reopening, China increasing monetary and fiscal measures,” he said.  Bolstering his opinion is a conviction that US inflation has probably peaked, or is about to do so, paving the way for a pullback in price pressures that will eventually allow the Federal Reserve to moderate the pace of monetary tightening.  "Since we are pricing in a growth scare but not yet a recession, we could see further downside in the coming weeks, but we are starting to price in a very negative picture already, suggesting we should, at some point, be closer to the bottom,” said Esty Dwek, chief investment officer at Flowbank SA. US stock investors are pricing in stronger odds of a recession than are evident from positive macroeconomic indicators, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. "A recession is not inevitable,” Goldman strategists led by David J. Kostin wrote in a note. “Rotations within the US equity market indicate that investors are pricing elevated odds of a downturn compared with the strength of recent economic data.” Bets that robust earnings can help investors weather this year’s turbulence were thrown in doubt after US consumer titans signaled growing impact of high inflation on margins and consumer spending. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials reaffirmed that tighter monetary policy lies ahead, and investors fretted over stagflation risks. “We are pricing in a growth scare,” Lori Calvasina, the head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told Bloomberg TV. “There is a lot of uncertainty in this market right now about whether or not that recession is going to come through or if it’s going to be another near-death experience.” There was some more good news on the China covid lockdown front: Shanghai Vice Mayor said Shanghai port throughput recovered to around 90% of the levels a year ago and that Shanghai will expand work resumption in areas with no COVID risk in early June. Furthermore, Shanghai is to gradually restore inter-district public transport from May 22nd and will require residents to show negative PCR tests taken within 48 hours before using public transport, while an economy official said Shanghai will reduce rents for small and medium-sized enterprises by more than CNY 10bln and the city extended CNY 72.3bln of loans to over 10,000 firms since March, according to Reuters. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 retreated 1.8%, after sliding more than 2% earlier, with all industry sectors in the red and personal care and financial services leading the decline as Wednesday’s retailer trouble in the U.S. spills over into Europe. FTSE 100 lags regional peers, dropping 2%. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: HomeServe shares jump as much as 12% after Brookfield agrees to buy the home emergency and repair services company for GBP4.1b. Societe Generale shares rise as much as 1.5%, as it was raised to outperform from market perform at KBW, with the broker saying the sale of Russian activities removes a key overhang for the bank and should result in a re-rating. Generali shares rose as much as 1.4% after 1Q profit beats analyst estimates as EU136m impairments on Russian investments were more than offset by higher operating income. PGNiG shares rise as much as 6.2% after reporting 1Q results that, according to analysts, support Polish gas company’s outlook. Nestle shares drop as much as 5.3% after Bernstein downgraded the stock to market perform from outperform, saying the shares will “struggle” if market sentiment improves and investors exit havens. Royal Mail shares fall as much as 14% after the postal group’s FY results slightly missed estimates and analysts said its outlook is “disappointing.” National Grid shares fall as much as 2.5%, erasing gains from yesterday’s record high, after the utility company reported full-year results. Earlier in the session, shares of Asian retailers follow their US counterparts lower after Target became the second big retailer in two days to trim its profit forecast. Australia: JB Hi-Fi retreats 6.6%, Wesfarmers -7.8%, Harvey Norman -5.5%, Woolworths -5.6% South Korea: E-Mart - 3.4%; apparel makers Hansae -9.4%, F&F -4.2%, Youngone -8.2% Japan: Fast Retailing - 3.1%, MatsukiyoCocokara -1.4%, Ryohin Keikaku -1.7%, Nitori -3% Singapore: Grocery chain operator Sheng Siong slips as much as 1.3% Hong Kong: Sun Art Retail down as much as 4.1% In China, Tencent Holdings Ltd. plunged 6.6% after warning it will take time for Beijing to act on promises to prop up the Chinese tech sector. Cisco Systems Inc. slid in extended US trading on a disappointing revenue outlook. Japan's Nikkei 225 suffered firm losses amid reports the ruling coalition is considering increasing the corporate tax rate and after several data releases in which Machinery Orders topped estimates but Exports missed as China-bound exports declined by the fastest pace since March 2020. Indian stocks declined to a ten-month low, tracking a sell-off across Asia, on concerns the US Fed’s hawkish stance on inflation may cool economic activity and hurt consumer demand.  The S&P BSE Sensex plunged 2.6% to 52,792.23, its lowest level since July 30, in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index slipped 2.7% to 15,809.40  Software exporter Infosys Ltd. fell 5.4% to a 11-month low and was the biggest drag on the Sensex, which had 27 of 30 member stocks trading lower. All 19 sector indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by S&P BSE Information Technology index, that dropped the most in over two years.   “Deteriorating macro sentiment such as soaring inflation, recession fears, and the prospect of the Federal Reserve getting even more hawkish will continue to keep benchmarks on the edge,” Prashanth Tapse, an analyst at Mehta Equities Ltd., wrote in a note.  In earnings, of the 36 Nifty 50 firms that have announced results so far, 21 have either met or exceeded analyst estimates, while 15 have missed forecasts. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.7% to close at 7,064.50, tumbling with global shares as concerns over inflation, interest-rate hikes and Ukraine piled up. All sectors dropped, except for health. Consumer shares were among the worst performers, following their US peers lower after Target became the second big retailer in two days to trim its profit forecast. Aristocrat rose after it released its 1H results and unveiled buyback plans. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 11,206.93 And in emerging markets, Sri Lanka fell into default for the first time in its history as the government struggles to halt an economic meltdown that prompted mass protests and a political crisis. An index of developing-nation stocks slumped more than 2%. In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index declines, with all G-10 majors rising against the greenback. CHF is the strongest G-10 performer with USD/CHF snapping lower on to a 0.97 handle and EUR/CHF slumping below 1.03. The Swiss franc diverged from Japanese yen and dollar after hawkish comments from SNB’s Thomas Jordan Wednesday, which assured traders CHF rates could follow EUR higher. Options trades may also be behind the latest move in the spot market. In rates, Treasury yields dropped about seven basis points as investors sought insurance against further declines in risk assets. Treasury yields richer by up to 6bp across belly of the curve, richening the 2s5s30s fly by 2.2bp on the day; 10-year yields around 2.83% with German 10-year outperforming by 2.5bps. Treasuries extended Wednesday’s rally as stocks resume slide with S&P 500 futures dropping under 3,900 to lowest level in a year; on the curve, the belly led the advance while bunds outperform in a more aggressive bull-flattening move as European stocks tumble. US session highlights include 10-year TIPS reopening at 1pm ET. Flurry of block trades during London session follows a spate of trades Wednesday; five blocks worth a combined cash-equivalent $1.2m/DV01 between 3:38am and 5:35am similarly entailed price action consistent with sales. Most European bonds also gained, with the yield on German 10-year securities falling more than basis points.  German yield curve bull-flattens: 30-year yield drops ~9bps before stalling near 1.05% which has acted as support for much of May so far. The Dollar issuance slate empty so far; eight borrowers priced $8.5b Wednesday, and new issue activity is expected to be muted during remainder of the week. Three-month dollar Libor +2.69bp to 1.50486%. Economic data slate includes May Philadelphia Fed business outlook and initial jobless claims (8:30am), April existing homes sales and leading index (10am). In commodities, crude oil extended declines, while most industrial metals were in the red as global growth fears damped the demand outlook. WTI reverses Asia’s gains, dropping back below $110 but holding above Wednesday’s lows. Spot gold is comparatively quiet, holding above $1,810/oz. Most base metals trade in the green; LME tin rises 2.1%, outperforming peers while copper held near a seven-month low and zinc extended losses. Bitcoin is modestly softer in a relatively contained range that lies just shy of the USD 30k mark. Crypto exchange FTX to start rollout of new stock-trading service on Thursday, WSJ reports; will not accept payment for order flow on stock trades. Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, along with April’s existing home sales and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey for May. Central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Holzmann and the Fed’s Kashkari. Finally, the ECB will be publishing the minutes from their April meeting. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 1.1% to 3,879.25 STOXX Europe 600 down 1.7% to 426.41 MXAP down 1.8% to 161.60 MXAPJ down 2.2% to 527.30 Nikkei down 1.9% to 26,402.84 Topix down 1.3% to 1,860.08 Hang Seng Index down 2.5% to 20,120.68 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,096.97 Sensex down 2.4% to 52,926.71 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 7,064.46 Kospi down 1.3% to 2,592.34 Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,814.49 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.28% to 103.52 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.96% Euro up 0.3% to $1.0496 Brent Futures down 0.1% to $109.00/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg President Joe Biden is set to meet on Thursday with Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson at the White House to discuss the Nordic nations’ NATO bids. China’s top diplomat again warned the US over its increased support for Taiwan, showing the island democracy remains a major sticking point between the world’s biggest economies as Beijing sent more military aircraft toward the island Sri Lanka fell into default for the first time in its history as the government struggles to halt an economic meltdown that prompted mass protests and a political crisis The yuan’s outlook is finally looking more balanced after a 6.5% dive versus its major trading partner currencies since March. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were pressured on spillover selling after the worst day on Wall St in almost two years. ASX 200 was led lower by consumer staples following the retailer woes stateside and mixed Australian jobs data. Nikkei 225 suffered firm losses amid reports the ruling coalition is considering increasing the corporate tax rate and after several data releases in which Machinery Orders topped estimates but Exports missed as China-bound exports declined by the fastest pace since March 2020. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp initially weakened with the Hong Kong benchmark dragged lower by heavy losses in tech after Tencent’s profit declined by more than 50% and with the mainland pressured as Beijing conducts a fresh round of mass COVID testing, although the mainland bourse recovered most of its losses after Shanghai announced a further gradual easing of restrictions. Xiaomi (1810 HK) Q1 adj. net profit CNY 2.859bln (vs 6.069bln Y/Y), Q1 revenue CNY 73.4bln (vs. 76.9bln Y/Y); global smartphone shipments -10.5% Y/Y at 38.5mln units. Top Asian News Shanghai Vice Mayor said Shanghai port throughput recovered to around 90% of the levels a year ago and that Shanghai will expand work resumption in areas with no COVID risk in early June. Furthermore, Shanghai is to gradually restore inter-district public transport from May 22nd and will require residents to show negative PCR tests taken within 48 hours before using public transport, while an economy official said Shanghai will reduce rents for small and medium-sized enterprises by more than CNY 10bln and the city extended CNY 72.3bln of loans to over 10,000 firms since March, according to Reuters. Japanese MOF official said China's COVID curbs are among the factors that caused a decline in China-bound exports from Japan which fell by the fastest pace since March 2020, while Japan's April imports reached the largest amount on record, according to Reuters. Japan's ruling coalition is reportedly considering increasing the corporate tax rate, according to Jiji. New Zealand sees 2021/22 OBEGAL at NZD -18.98bln (prev. forecast -20.44bln), 2021/22 net debt at 36.9% of GDP (prev. forecast 37.6%) and Cash Balance at NZD -31.78bln (prev. forecast -34.10bln), while Finance Minister Robertson said the economy is expected to be robust in the near term and they see a return to OBEGAL surplus in 2024/25, according to Reuters. European bourses are pressured across the board in a broader risk-off moves after yesterday's Wall St. sell off, as European players look past the brief respite seen overnight on Shanghai's reopening; Euro Stoxx 50 -2.3%. Stateside, the magnitude of the downside is somewhat more contained given newsflow has been limited since Wednesday's downside commenced, ES -1.2%. Top European News EU is reportedly considering a targeted trade war on troublesome Brexiteer MPs and Tory ministers to force UK PM Johnson to do a U-turn on the Northern Ireland protocol, according to The Telegraph. Top UK Economist Defends BOE’s Handling of Inflation Crisis EasyJet Bookings Pick Up Ahead of Uncertain Summer Season Apax-Owned Rodenstock Acquires Spanish Rival Indo European Gas Slips With LNG Imports Helping Boost Stockpiles In FX Franc resurgence and re-emergence as a safe haven currency continues; USD/CHF touches 0.9750 vs 1.0060+ peak on Monday, EUR/CHF sub-1.0250 vs circa 1.0500 at one stage only yesterday. Dollar loses momentum as US Treasury yields retreat further and curve re-flattens amidst ongoing risk rout, DXY ducks under 103.500 after peaking just shy of 104.000 on Wednesday. Kiwi and Aussie find positives via fiscal and fundamental factors to evade aversion; NZD/USD back above 0.6300 after NZ budget and AUD/USD hovering around 0.7000 post- Aussie jobs data. Yen retains underlying bid irrespective of mixed Japanese data, USD/JPY below 128.00 again. Euro firmer beyond EUR/CHF cross ahead of ECB minutes and Sterling off UK inflation data lows awaiting retail sales on Friday, EUR/USD retains sight of 1.0500 and Cable near 1.2400. Rand meandering ahead of SARB in anticipation of 50 bp rate hike, USD/ZAR around 16.0000, irrespective of Gold taking firmer hold of USD 1800/oz handle. Fixed Income Debt resumes safe-haven rally as market mood continues to sour. Bunds top 154.00, Gilts get close to 120.00 and 10 year T-note even nearer the same psychological level. BTPs lag amidst the ongoing aversion to risk, while OATs and Bonos reflect on somewhat mixed auction results. Commodities WTI and Brent are pressured in-fitting with broader sentiment as initial resilience on demand-side positives re. China/COVID were overpowered by the risk move. However, the benchmarks are around USD 1.00/bbl off lows of USD 104.36/bbl and USD 106.76/bbl respectively, following reports that China is discussing the purchase of Russian crude. China is said to be in talks with Russia to purchase oil for strategic reserves, according to Bloomberg sources; detailed on terms and volume reportedly not decided yet Qatar Energy was reportedly selling July Al-Shaheen crude at premiums of USD 5.80-6.40/bbl above Dubai quotes which is the highest in 2 months, according to Reuters sources. Spot gold is bid as it draws haven allure, with the yellow metal marginally surpassing USD 1830/oz. US Event Calendar 08:30: May Initial Jobless Claims, est. 200,000, prior 203,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.32m, prior 1.34m 08:30: May Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 15.0, prior 17.6 10:00: April Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -2.2%, prior -2.7%; Home Resales with Condos, est. 5.64m, prior 5.77m 10:00: April Leading Index, est. 0%, prior 0.3% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Today is my last day at work this week before I head up to Cambridge tomorrow for my Masters’ graduation. Before you send in a flood of congratulations though, I didn’t actually do any work for this qualification, with not even a single hour of revision. Now at this point you’re probably thinking I’m either a genius or guilty of some serious academic malpractice. I’m hoping the former. But the truth is that I’m benefiting from a quirky tradition that somehow means Cambridge, Oxford and Dublin will upgrade your Bachelors into a Masters after a few years. With the wedding two months away, it appears as though I’m losing all my bachelor status at once. Markets seem ready for a holiday too after the last 24 hours, with the selloff resuming at pace after the brief respite on Tuesday. In fact it was nothing short of a rout with the S&P 500 ending the day down -4.04%, marking its worst daily performance since June 2020, and leaving the index at a fresh one-year low. There wasn’t a single catalyst behind the slump, but weak housing data out of the US along with Target’s move to cut its profit outlook helped feed investor concern that the consumer might not be in as strong a position as previously thought. And that’s on top of all the other worries of late that the global economy is heading in a stagflationary direction amidst various supply-chain issues, alongside the prospect that tighter central bank policy is going to further dent growth and risks tipping various economies into recession. In terms of the specific moves, the S&P 500 gradually tumbled as the day went on, with its -4.04% decline more than reversing its +2.02% bounceback on Tuesday. The decline was an incredibly broad-based one, with just 8 constituents in the index ending the day higher, which is the lowest number since November. That earnings report we mentioned at the top meant that Target (-24.93%) saw the worst performance in the entire S&P 500, after saying they now expected their full-year operating income margin rate to be around 6%. That follows a disappointing report from Walmart the previous day, and meant that consumer staples (-6.38%) and consumer discretionary (-6.60%) were the worst-performing sectors in the S&P yesterday. The latest declines also mean that the S&P is back on track for a 7th consecutive weekly decline, having shed -2.49% since the start of the week, and S&P 500 futures are only up by +0.18% this morning. If the S&P 500 does see a 7th week in negative territory, then that would be the longest run of weekly declines for the index since 2001. Other indices lost ground too given the risk-off move, with the Dow Jones (-3.57%), the NASDAQ (-4.73%), and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-3.56%) all experiencing sizeable declines of their own. European indices had a better performance after closing before the worst of the US declines, and the STOXX 600 was “only” down -1.14% to just remain in positive territory for the week. With recessionary concerns back in focus, sovereign bonds rallied on both sides of the Atlantic as investors sought out safe havens. Yields on 10yr US Treasuries fell by -10.2bps to 2.88%, with the decline mostly led by a -9.6bps move lower in real yields, and nominal yields are only back up +2.5bps this morning. The yield curve also continued to flatten and the 2s10s slope (-6.9ps) fell to its lowest in over two weeks, at 21.0bps, although it’s been over 6 weeks now since the curve last traded in inversion territory. We did get some Fedspeak but to be honest there weren’t any major headlines relative to what we already knew, with Chicago Fed President Evans saying it was “quite likely” the Fed would be at a neutral setting by year-end, whilst Philadelphia Fed President Harker was making the case for more gradual rate hikes after the next few 50bp hikes are delivered. More important for the outlook was the release of various housing data yesterday, where housing starts fell to an annualised rate of 1.724m in April (vs. 1.756m expected), and that was from a downwardly revised 1.728m in March. That comes against the backdrop of rising mortgage rates, and the MBA reported that mortgage purchase applications fell -11.9% in the week ending May 13, leaving them at their lowest levels since May 2020 when the numbers were still recovering from the pandemic slump. Over in Europe, sovereign bond curves also became flatter as investors became increasingly aggressive on the near-term ECB rate path. Indeed the amount of ECB rate hikes priced in by the December meeting hit a fresh high of 108bps, or equivalent to at least four rate hikes of 25bps by year-end. That came amidst further ECB speakers over the last 24 hours, including Finnish central bank governor Rehn, who had already endorsed a July hike and said yesterday that the initial hike was “likely to take place in the summer”. Furthermore, he said that it seemed “necessary that in our policy rates we move relatively quickly out of negative territory”. We also heard from Estonian central bank governor Muller, who also endorsed a July hike and said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the deposit rate were in positive territory by year-end. However, Spanish central bank governor De Cos said that rate hikes should be gradual as he called for APP purchases to end at the start of Q3, with rate hikes to follow shortly afterwards. Those growing expectations of tighter policy saw shorter-dated yields move higher in Europe once again, with 2yr German yields hitting their highest level since 2011 despite only a marginal +0.1bps move to 0.36%. However, the broader risk-off tone meant it was a different story for their longer-dated counterparts, and yields on 10yr bunds (-1.6bps) and OATs (-2.2bps) both moved lower on the day. Peripheral spreads widened as well, whilst iTraxx Crossover neared its recent highs with a +26.2bps move to 468bps. In terms of the fight against inflation, there was a potential boost on the trade side yesterday as US Treasury Secretary Yellen confirmed ahead of a meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governments that the she favoured removing some tariffs on goods that are not considered strategic. Separately the risk-off move also saw oil prices move lower for a 2nd day running yesterday, with Brent crude down -2.52%, although it’s since taken back a decent chunk of that loss this morning with a +1.51% move higher to $110.76/bbl. Over in Asia, equity markets have tracked those steep overnight losses on Wall Street to move sharply lower this morning. Among the key indices, the Hang Seng (-2.25%) is the largest underperformer amidst a broad weakness in tech stocks as the Hang Seng Tech index fell by an even larger -3.40%. Mainland Chinese stocks have performed relatively better however, even if the Shanghai Composite (-0.08%) and CSI (-0.25%) have both moved slightly lower, while the Nikkei (-1.91%) and the Kospi (-1.29%) have seen more substantial losses. Finally there was some important employment data out of Australia this morning ahead of their election on Saturday, with the unemployment rate falling to its lowest since 1974, at 3.9%. The employment gain was a bit softer than expected with just a +4.0k gain (vs. +30.0k expected), but that included a +92.4k gain in full-time employment, offset by a -88.4k decline in part-time employment. Elsewhere on the data side, there were fresh signs of inflationary pressure in the UK after CPI inflation rose to a 40-year high of +9.0% in April. But in spite of the 40-year high, that was actually slightly beneath the +9.1% reading expected by the consensus, which marked the first time in over 6 months that the reading hasn’t been higher than expected. Gilts outperformed following the release as it was also beneath the BoE’s staff projection of +9.1%, and 10yr gilt yields closed down -1.6bps on the day, whilst sterling underperformed the other major currencies leave it -1.28% weaker against the US Dollar. To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, along with April’s existing home sales and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey for May. Central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Holzmann and the Fed’s Kashkari. Finally, the ECB will be publishing the minutes from their April meeting. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/19/2022 - 08:02.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytMay 19th, 2022

Global Markets Tumble On Hawkish Central Bank Anguish, China Lockdown Fears

Global Markets Tumble On Hawkish Central Bank Anguish, China Lockdown Fears The global selloff that started in Asia, sending China's CSI300 plunging to the lowest level since May 2020, slamming the offshore yuan below 6.60 and sparking a liquidation in oil and cryptos amid fears that the Shanghai lockdown will spread to the capital Beijing and lead to an even greater slowdown in the global economy... ... has quickly spread around the globe, slamming not just European markets but US equity futures which slid as much as 1% as traders fretted over the prospects of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve, Chinese lockdowns and disappointing earnings. S&P 500 futures were down 0.9% as of 7:00am EDT after plunging 2.8% on Friday, while Nasdaq futures retreated 0.8%, with the rout hammering tech stocks especially hard. Some context: the Nasdaq 100 Index has erased about $1 trillion in market value since Netflix released disappointing earnings and is closing in on oversold levels; the tech-heavy FANGMAN basket has lost $2.4 trillion in market cap from 2021 ATH as Netflix and Facebook  Meta, have lost most of their gains from past 5yrs. Remember when Facebook hit the $1tn market cap club in 2021? Now it’s worth exactly half that. But now the tech bear market is finally spreading all US stocks which closed at their lowest levels in more than a month on Friday as fears over a more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycle led to broad-based selling. Investors are entering another busy week for big technology companies’ earnings, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Paypal and Apple all reporting results although don't expect some miraculous surge. Investor mood was already morose after Fed chair erome Powell’s hawkish comments last week hurt sentiment already sapped by the war in Ukraine, a slowdown in China and the risks inflation poses to company earnings, according to Michael Hewson, chief analyst at CMC Markets in London. “The final straw appears to be a concern about the prospect of a policy mistake by central banks, and a possible recession by the end of the year,” he said. One sole glimmer of green, Twitter shares, rose 0.6% in premarket trading after a WSJ report that Elon Musk met with the social media platform’s executives on Sunday as the company turns more receptive toward the billionaire’s $43 billion takeover offer. As discussed earlier, U.S.-listed Chinese stocks fell in premarket trading as expanded Covid lockdown measures in major Chinese cities spark concerns over the country’s growth outlook. Pinduoduo led a decline in American depositary receipts, down 4.7% in premarket trade. E-commerce peers Alibaba Group fell 3.9% and JD.com lost 2.5%. Electric carmakers including Nio and Li Auto also fell. The weakness tracks a 4.9% slump in China’s CSI 300 Index, which closed at its lowest level in two years. Here are some other notable premarket movers: U.S.-listed Chinese stocks look set to open lower on Monday as expanded Covid lockdown measures in major cities sparked concerns over the country’s economic growth outlook. Pinduoduo (PDD US) led a decline in American depositary receipts, down 4.7% in premarket trade. E-commerce peers Alibaba (BABA US) fell 3.9% and JD.com (JD US) lost 2.5%. Electric carmakers including Nio (NIO US) and Li Auto (LI US) also fell. AT&T (T US) reinstated with a buy rating at Goldman Sachs with the focus turning to the telecom giant’s core business, while the broker cuts its rating on Verizon (VZ US) on valuation grounds. AT&T up 0.6% in premarket, Verizon -1.4%. Cenntro Electric (CENN US) rises as much as 22% premarket ahead of the electric-vehicle company’s quarterly update due after the close on Monday. Kellogg (K US) was downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank, which stays cautious and below consensus ahead of 1Q22 results because of headwinds including worsening inflation and supply chain disruptions. Shares down 1.4% in premarket. Morgan Stanley says DoorDash (DASH US) is the “best executor around” among food delivery companies, but awaits a better entry point as initiates at equal-weight with Street- low $100 target. Shares down 1.1% in premarket on low volume. GoDaddy (GDDY US) upgraded to overweight at Piper Sandler on strong free cash flow potential, with the broker cutting its ratings on Wix.com (WIX US) and Squarespace (SQSP US) in a rejig of its digital presence coverage. GoDaddy little changed in premarket, Wix.com and Squarespace not traded. Coca-Cola and Activision Blizzard are among companies reporting earnings today. In Europe, markets are under heavy pressure: Euro Stoxx 50 drops as much as 2.6% with several other core indexes down over 2%. Spain’s IBEX outperforms. Miners are the weakest performers with the Stoxx 600 sector down over 5%. Energy and consumer products and services similarly lag.  Europe’s Basic Resources Index  crashed 6%, and was set for the worst daily drop since March 2020. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Ubisoft shares rise as much as 12% after Bloomberg reported the video-game publisher is attracting takeover interest from private equity firms including Blackstone and KKR. Garanti stock rallies as much as 5.6% after parent BBVA sweetened its voluntary offer for the Turkish lender and the unit said 1Q net income tripled. Biogaia shares rise as much as 9.6% after the Swedish food-additives and supplements maker published preliminary 1Q sales figures, which included a large beat on operating profit and net sales. Barco shares rise as much as 4.2% after the projector maker’s Cinionic JV won a contract to install laser projectors in 3,500 U.S. auditoriums of cinema chain operator AMC. The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources and Energy sub- indexes both slumped on Monday amid broad declines for commodities prices on concerns that a growing Covid-19 outbreak in China will hit demand. Shell -4.5%, TotalEnergies SE -3.1%, Glencore -6.0%, Anglo American -6.5% Philips stock falls as much as 11% after publishing its latest earnings, where higher provisions related to its recall of Dreamstation breathing machines overshadowed better-than-expected 1Q sales. Roche shares fell as much as 3.6% after the Swiss pharma company reported mixed first quarter results. Sales beat expectations due to a boost to the diagnostics division, while the pharmaceutical unit missed. As we reported on Sunday, the big news out of France is that Macron won the second round of the Presidential Election with 58.6% of the vote vs Le Pen at 41.4%, while Le Pen conceded defeat after the initial projections, according to Reuters and Sky News. Elsewhere, ECB President Lagarde commented that interest rate hikes will not lower energy prices, according to Barron’s. ECB policymakers are said to be keen to finish bond purchases as soon as possible and possibly hike rates in July but no later than August, while they are leaning towards two rate moves this year with three also a possibility, according to Reuters sources. However, an ECB spokesperson declined to comment on the timing of ending bond purchases and potential interest rate increases. The EU is said to prepare the creation of a new trade and tech council with India, according to FT sources. The new forum could be unveiled on Monday during the European Commission President’s visit to India. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slumped the most since March 11 as China’s worsening Covid-19 outbreak and a looming rate hike by the Federal Reserve hurt risk sentiment.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 2.2% Monday, setting off a grim start to the region’s busiest week for earnings. The biggest drags were technology stocks sensitive to higher interest rates, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Alibaba and Tencent.  Equities in mainland China and Hong Kong were among the region’s worst performers. Chinese stocks slid to a two year low amid fears that rising infections in Beijing may spur an unprecedented city-wide lockdown of the capital. The Chinese regulator also ordered platform companies to better handle online violence, dragging tech stocks lower. READ: China Lockdown Angst Rips Through Markets as Stocks, Yuan Plunge The lockdowns that have now expanded to parts of Beijing will “cause a logistical problem that’s going to affect not just China but also the rest of the world,” Jeffrey Halley, Asia Pacific senior market analyst at Oanda, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.  With no signs of change in Covid zero policy and very little in terms of actual stimulus, “that all points to lower China stocks and we are going to see a weaker yuan going forward,” he added. Investors are also on guard for corporate earnings. Stock-market heavyweights including Kweichow Moutai in China and Samsung Electronics in South Korea are expected to release first-quarter results this week.   With a number of Fed speakers recently showing support for 50-basis-point hikes, tech shares led declines of major gauges in the region. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 10% from its January high.   Japanese equities dropped, extending a global selloff amid prospects for aggressive U.S. interest-rate hikes and a worsening Covid outbreak in China. Electronics and machinery makers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 1.5%, with 32 of 33 industry groups in the red. Fast Retailing and SoftBank Group were the largest contributors to a 1.9% loss in the Nikkei 225. Indian stocks also fell, joining their peers across Asia, as appetite for risk waned amid renewed concerns over Covid infections and its possible impact on business growth.  The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 1.1% to 56,579.89, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index slipped 1.3% to 16,953.95. Reliance Industries Ltd. lost 2.3%, the most in seven weeks. It was the biggest drag on the Sensex, which saw 23 of its 30 stocks trading lower.   All but one of 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a gauge of metal stocks.  The continued war in Ukraine and fears of a wider lockdown in Beijing are weighing on sentiment, already impacted by the risk of a global slowdown as the U.S. Fed raises rates to tame inflation. Of the six Nifty 50 firms that have announced results so far, four have missed, while two have beaten analyst estimates. Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank are among the companies releasing Jan-March earnings this week.  With risk off, safe havens were mostly bid: Treasuries advanced across the curve, with yields on the belly falling about 10bps and 10Y yields sliding 8bps to 2.833%. The belly of the UST curve outperforms by 1-2bps. Peripheral spreads widen to core with 10y Italy lagging peers on the rally. European bonds advanced, yet underperformed Treasuries; the spread between French 10-year bond yields and German equivalents tightened at the open after President Emmanuel Macron was re-elected as French president, only to widen as haven demand supported bunds. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; preliminary estimates are for around $25 billion this week. •    Three-month dollar Libor +1.11bp to 1.22486%. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose a third day to the highest level since May 2020; the greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen and the Swiss franc; AUD and NZD lag G-10 peers. USD/JPY holds above 128. The euro fell to its lowest level versus the dollar since March 2020, erasing earlier gains amid broader greenback strength.  The pound slumped to the lowest versus the dollar since September 2020 and gilts advanced. The Aussie was the worst G-10 performer amid fears over the outlook for China’s demand for iron ore and with the selloff boosted by options-related selling. The yen rose, as concerns about the economic impact of accelerating U.S. rate increases put a pause on the recent aggressive selling of the currency. Japan’s government bonds tracked Treasuries higher with support from purchases by the Bank of Japan. Perhaps most importantly, the yuan - which until now had resisted any weakness - plunged again, dropping to the lowest level in 17 months as the offshore yuan dropped below 6.60 the lowest level since Nov 2020, spurring a selloff in emerging-market currencies. In commodities, crude futures sold ell off with WTI down over 4% and back on a $97-handle. Base metals are similarly deep in the red. Spot gold drops ~$14 to trade near $1,916/oz. Monday’s pullback in the soaring price of commodities since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has done little to assuage concerns about runaway inflation. Fed Jerome Powell had outlined his most bold approach yet to reining in surging prices and the European Central Bank signaled stronger tightening. Bitcoin continued to tumble alongside the broader crypto market, even though the harder the stocks fall and the more the Fed tightens, the more it will eventually have to ease, unleashing the next surge higher in cryptos which we expect to push bitcoin over $100,000 and Ether over $10,000. Looking at the calendar, the economic data slate includes March Chicago Fed national activity (8:30am) and April Dallas Fed manufacturing activity(10:30am); consumer confidence, GDP, PCE deflator and University of Michigan sentiment are ahead this week. Today we will earnings from Coca-Cola, Activision Blizzard, Vivendi. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.7% to 4,235.25 STOXX Europe 600 down 1.8% to 445.31 MXAP down 2.0% to 166.02 MXAPJ down 2.4% to 546.02 Nikkei down 1.9% to 26,590.78 Topix down 1.5% to 1,876.52 Hang Seng Index down 3.7% to 19,869.34 Shanghai Composite down 5.1% to 2,928.51 Sensex down 1.0% to 56,637.35 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 7,473.28 Kospi down 1.8% to 2,657.13 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.89% Euro down 0.4% to $1.0751 Brent Futures down 4.4% to $101.96/bbl Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,920.54 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.20% to 101.43 Top Overnight  News from Bloomberg China’s coronavirus outbreak worsened as rising cases in Beijing sparked jitters about an unprecedented lockdown of the capital, with policy makers racing to avert a Shanghai-style crisis that’s already wrought havoc on the financial hub China must take stronger action to boost growth above 5% in the second quarter, said a central bank adviser who warned the country needs to lay a foundation for achieving its full-year target in the face of rising economic risks A sustained and substantial increase in U.S. real yields would be bad news for developing nations as it typically boosts the dollar and sucks capital out of riskier assets, like in 2008 and 2013 The U.S. announced it would start sending diplomats back to Ukraine and provide more military aid as Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Kyiv late on Sunday night, in the highest- level U.S. visit to the war-torn country since Russia invaded China’s central bank stepped up its support for several distressed developers by allowing banks and bad-debt managers to loosen restrictions on some loans to ease a cash crunch, according to people familiar with the matter A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded negatively after last Friday's stock rout on Wall Street with risk sentiment hampered by holiday closures, China's COVID-19 woes and as participants brace for a busy week of key earnings releases. Nikkei 225 shed around 500 points with sentiment not helped by several earnings guidance downgrades and with Nissan shares were hit as alliance partner Renault mulls selling a partial stake in the Japanese automaker. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed on the COVID situation after daily deaths in Shanghai rose again and with the city to conduct another round of mass testing, while Beijing also scrambles to contain an outbreak with its Chaoyang district to require residents and workers to undergo three COVID-19 tests this week. Top Asian News Asia Stocks Fall Most in Six Weeks as China Outbreak Worsens China Woes Stoking Inflation Angst Set to Weigh on the Euro Shimao Unit Proposes to Pay Down Puttable Bond Faster: REDD Loan Curbs Eased for Distressed Developers: Evergrande Update European cash markets kicked off the week lower across the board with a relatively broad-based performance seen across the majors. Sectors are lower across the board with a clear defensive tilt: Energy and Basic Resources sit at the bottom of the bunch amid hefty downside in underlying commodities. Stateside futures are lower in tandem with the broader market sentiment, whilst the NQ is slightly more cushioned by the earlier decline in yields. Twitter is reportedly re-examining Elon Musk’s bid and be more receptive to a deal with the sides meeting on Sunday to discuss the proposal. It was separately reported that Twitter is facing increasing shareholder pressure to negotiate with Elon Musk in his takeover bid and that the Co. is in talks with Elon Musk in which a potential deal could be made as early as this week, according to WSJ. Top European News Macron Gets Second Chance to Show France His Vision Can Work Credit Suisse Special Audit Backed by Norway’s Wealth Fund SocGen Too Quick to Axe Boss Accused of Trying to Kiss Colleague Art Seized at U.S. Homes Part of Crackdown on Wealthy Russians FX: DXY sets new 2022 peak at 101.750 amid safety flight and sharp slide in crude alongside other commodities. Yen back in favour as risk sentiment sours irrespective of denials about joint Japanese and US intervention discussion - Usd/Jpy towards base of 128.87-127.89 range. Aussie underperforms on Anzac Day due to steep decline in copper and iron ore - Aud/Usd tests 0.7150 and Aud/Nzd cross under 1.0850 vs 1.0940 at one stage overnight. Yuan extends depreciation as Covid spreads to a district in Beijing and PBoC continues to lower Cny midpoint reference rate - Usd/Cnh just shy of 6.6000, Usd/Cny eyeing 6.5650. Euro averts 1.0700 test, narrowly, and pares more losses after surprisingly upbeat Ifo survey, on the surface - Eur/Usd rebounds to circa 1.0750, but still well below Macron victory high. Pound loses Fib support on the way through 1.2800 and sub-8400 vs Dollar and Euro respectively. Fixed Income Debt futures firm as risk appetite wanes, but bonds fade beyond 154.50 in Bunds, 119.00 in Gilts and 119-25 in the 10 year T-note. Core EZ bonds lose momentum after German Ifo survey beats and irrespective of less encouraging accompanying statements. French OATs off peak within 147.38-146.28 range posted on confirmation of Macron defeating Le Pen to retain Presidency. European Commission sells EUR 2.499bln (exp. EUR 2.500bln) 0.4% 2037 NGEU; b/c 2.05x (prev. 1.49x), average yield 1.626% (prev. 0.375%). Commodities: WTI and Brent June contacts have continued to decline since the resumption of futures trading. Spot gold has been caged to a near-USD 5/oz range since the European open as the impact of a firming Buck negated the effects of lower yields at the time. Base metals are in a sea of red as China's lockdown woes hit the demand side of the equation – with LME aluminium and zinc the laggards at the time of writing. US Event Calendar 08:30: March Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.45, prior 0.51 10:00: Revisions: Retail Sales, Inventories 10:30: April Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 4.8, prior 8.7 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I survived a weekend alone with my kids but the only way for all of us to cope was to comfort eat and spend so much time on Netflix that I may as well cancel my subscription as there is nothing left to watch now. Never has Mum been so welcome by an adult, 3 kids and a dog, as she was on her return last night. Parenting is hard! Central bankers are finding it hard too at the moment and it was a fascinating past week on that front as several important central bankers belatedly played a game of leapfrog on who could make the most aggressively hawkish rhetoric on taming inflation. Those speaking at the start of the week might have seemed hawkish at the time but by the end of the week they almost looked dovish. The IMF/World Bank gathering probably focused the minds of all the Governors, Presidents and Chairs present and hawkishness spread through the event like wildfire with the notable exception of Japan's Kuroda who is seemingly sticking to the country's YCC. We are now in the Fed blackout period so they won't add to the hawkishness for the 9.5 days before we get the FOMC decision. Note that the BoJ meet on Thursday although nothing suggests they are going to pivot and will remain the last hawkish shoe to drop. The French election has passed without incident with President Macron gaining 58.6% of the vote vs. 41.4% for Le Pen. Macron won 66.1% of the second round vote in 2017 and with him unable to stand in 2027 and with the traditional parties share of the vote at record lows who knows where French politics will be by then. However much water will flow under Le Pont des Arts before we need to worry about that. Meanwhile, the next hurdle for Macron will come with the Parliamentary elections on the 12th and 19th of June. Commonly referred to as the ‘third round’, the elections will be crucial as it will define the make-up of the government Macron must rely on to push through his reform program. See Marc de-Muizon's blog last night here for more on this. The Euro popped nearly +0.6% higher at the Asian open after the results became clear but has subsequently dipped into negative territory as risk off dominates in Asia. Mainland Chinese stocks are sliding with the Shanghai Composite (-1.95%) and CSI (-2.39%) down, falling to its lowest level since 2020 amid the worsening Covid situation in China, particularly in the financial hub of Shanghai. Strict restrictions have begun to spread, with authorities ordering mandatory Covid tests in a district of Beijing and many buildings locked down. The Hang Seng (-2.47%) is also lagging and elsewhere, the Nikkei (-1.94%) and Kospi (-1.44%) are weak. Outside of Asia, futures contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.42%) and Nasdaq (-0.30%) are lower with 2 and 10yr US yields both around -5bps lower. Brent and WTI are both around -2.9%. Moving on to this week now and it is an important one for European inflation with German CPI on Thursday and the French and Italian equivalent (plus PPI) on Friday with the overall Euro CPI the same day. US (Thursday) and European Q1 GDP (Friday) will also be of interest. Back to the US and inflation related data will be the closest watched with Friday's ECI expected to be strong. This is one of the key indicators the Fed use for labour market strength. The core PCE deflator (the Fed's preferred inflation measure) also comes out as part of the income and spending report data on Friday. The rate of growth may well tick down here so this might provide a shred of good news on inflation without changing the story too much. It will be an important week for corporate earnings too with 179 of the S&P 500 reporting and 134 in the Stoxx 600. Big US tech will be the highlight with Microsoft and Alphabet (tomorrow), Meta (Wednesday), and Apple and Amazon (Thursday). Consumption patterns will be in focus when we get results from Coca-Cola (today), Mondelez, Chipotle (tomorrow), Kraft Heinz (Wednesday) and McDonald's (Thursday). Meanwhile, a range of banks across the globe will give a pulse check on consumer credit. Notable reporters will include HSBC, UBS, Santander (tomorrow), Credit Suisse (Wednesday), Barclays (Thursday), finishing with BBVA and NatWest on Friday. Other notable financials reporting will include Visa (tomorrow), PayPal (Wednesday) and Mastercard (Thursday). Other tech-related companies releasing results will include Activision Blizzard (Monday), LG, Qualcomm, Spotify (Wednesday), Samsung, Intel and Twitter (Thursday). In healthcare, another sector that benefitted from the pandemic, reporters will include Novartis (tomorrow), GlaxoSmithKline (Wednesday), Eli Lilly, Merck, Sanofi (Thursday) and AstraZeneca (Friday). To see how the commodity rally and the focus on energy transition affected major commodity companies worldwide, markets will get earnings from Iberdrola, Vale (Wednesday), Total, Repsol (Thursday), Exxon, Orsted, Chevron and Eni (Friday). Downstream users like transport firms will report too, including General Motors (tomorrow), Boeing, Mercedes-Benz and Ford (Wednesday). Other notable corporates releasing results will include Texas Instruments, General Electric, UPS and Caterpillar. The rest of the day by day calendar of events appears at the end as usual on a Monday. Reviewing last week now, as discussed at the top a cadre of central bank officials reinforced the idea that monetary policy needs to tighten on both sides of the Atlantic this year, thus driving sovereign yields higher. Chair Powell, in his last remarks before the Fed’s May meeting communications blackout, lent credence to the wisdom of front loading the hiking cycle and getting policy rates to neutral as quickly as possible. Regional Fed presidents, spanning ideologies, concurred throughout the week. Short-term markets ended the week pricing more than 150 basis points of tightening over the next three meetings, embedding some risk premium for a 75 basis point hike at each meeting. Futures markets are implying Fed policy rates will be north of 2.80% by the end of the year, above the Fed’s estimates of neutral. President Lagarde was careful to draw a distinction between the US and European situation, but nevertheless would not rule out an increase to ECB policy rates as early as July, following the cessation of net APP purchases, which is likely early in the third quarter. Markets are pricing 24 basis points of ECB tightening by the July meeting, and 85 basis points of tightening for the rest of the year. Bank of England Governor Bailey highlighted the path of policy was laced with uncertainty, but inflation was likely to increase due to rising energy costs. Bailey added the bank would not sell its security holdings into fragile markets. Even committed dove, Ingves of the Swedish Central Bank, rowed back on his previous mantras and acknowledged tightening was needed. As a result, Sovereign yields were higher in each jurisdiction, with 10yr Treasury, bund, and gilt yields increasing +8.2bps (-1.2bps Friday), +10.6bps (+2.4bps Friday), and +7.4bps (-4.9bps Friday), respectively. For their part, 10yr OAT yields closed the week at a +44.5bp spread above bund equivalents, their tightest since March, as President Macron’s polling advantage increased heading into yesterday’s election. Equity indices retreated on the tighter policy path. The STOXX 600 fell -1.42% (-1.79% Friday) while the S&P 500 was -2.75% lower (-2.77% Friday), bringing it into correction territory YTD (-10.37%) again. Mega cap tech stocks bore the brunt, with FANG+ falling -8.76% (-1.99%) as higher discount rates hit valuations. The mega cap losses accelerated after Netflix reported it lost subscribers in the first quarter, which sent its share prices more than -35% lower. The reprieve was only temporary the following day when Tesla reported a record profit on the back of surging electric car demand. Brent crude oil futures were relatively subdued by comparison to other asset classes and recent volatility, falling -5.43% (-2.48% Friday) over the week to $105.64/bbl. Elsewhere the IMF revised down their global growth expectations in light of Russia’s invasion, expecting the global economy to grow 3.6 percent in each of the next two years. Fighting continued in eastern Ukraine, with Russia declaring victory over the port city of Mariupol, while there was not any material public progress in peace negotiations. The Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee said Russia’s remuneration of foreign currency bonds with rubles would constitute a default and trigger credit default swaps. Russia has a 30-day grace period, which ends May 4, to make creditors whole. Tyler Durden Mon, 04/25/2022 - 07:48.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytApr 25th, 2022

Futures, Treasuries Tumble On Fed Tightening Fears As FOMC Minutes Loom

Futures, Treasuries Tumble On Fed Tightening Fears As FOMC Minutes Loom There is a scene in My Cousin Vinny where Joe Pesci's puzzled wannabe-lawyer character asks the judge if he was really serious 'bout dat. On Tuesday and overnight, incredulous algos and 15 year old hedge fund managers had a similar question to the Fed about its market-crushing, rate-hiking intentions, after yesterday the Fed's in house permadove and Hillary Clinton donor, Lael Brainard, shocked markets when she not only made the case for accelerated rate hikes but also a faster balance sheet drawdown after she said that curbing inflation is “paramount” and the central bank may start trimming its balance sheet rapidly as soon as May. As a result, investors once again feared out that a more restrictive U.S. central bank could end up tipping the world’s largest economy into a downturn, or even a recession, something which is now Deutsche Bank's base case for 2024. The virus resurgence in Asia and the war in Ukraine are also clouding the outlook for prices and growth. “Market participants finally acknowledged that central banks are serious and will raise interest rates significantly to bring inflation rates down,” Florian Spate, a senior bond strategist at Generali Investments, wrote in a note. “We expect the selloff to lose momentum but the general trend for yields is likely to point still upwards.” It also meant a plunge in both US stocks and bonds, and a continuation of this selloff across global markets overnight, which then fed back into US future weakness again this morning and saw tech companies lead U.S. index futures lower on Wednesday as concerns mounted over the pace of the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening and a worsening pandemic in China. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 were down about 1.5% and contracts on the S&P 500 slid -1% with tech heavyweights among the worst performers in premarket trading. Global stocks and bonds also fell. The Stoxx Europe 600 index was down more than 1%, with travel, carmakers and tech leading declines. 10Y yields soared as high as 2.65% and a gauge of the dollar’s strength rose to a three-week peak. Tesla, Nvidia, Applied Materials, Amazon, Alphabet, Qualcomm and Boeing were among the worst performers in premarket trading. Starbucks slipped after the company announced the ousting of its top lawyer. Here are some other notable movers: Shares of Spirit Airlines (SAVE US) fall 2.6% in U.S. premarket, erasing some of prior day’s steep gains after the budget carrier received a $3.6 billion takeover offer from JetBlue (JBLU US) that topped a competing bid by Frontier Group. JetBlue -4.3%. Twitter (TWTR US) slips 1.3% after two-day surge of about 30%. Elon Musk refiled the disclosure of his stake to classify himself as an active investor, making the change after taking a seat on the social media company’s board. Array Technologies’ (ARRY US) strong order book and better-than-expected FY22 guidance were welcomed by analysts, however they also highlight margin pressure and potential impacts from an antidumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) investigation. Array gains 11% premarket. Tech companies led U.S. index futures lower on Wednesday as concerns mounted over the pace of the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening and a worsening pandemic in China. Apple (AAPL US) -0.8%. Gogo (GOGO US) gains 11% premarket on news that it will join the S&P Smallcap 600 Index before trading opens April 8, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. US-listed Chinese stocks fall in premarket trading Wednesday, tracking Asian peers, as a selloff in bonds pressures tech shares. The decline in Chinese ADRs follows a 3.8% drop in Hang Seng Tech Index, the most in more than a week, with Alibaba and JD.com among the biggest decliners  In premarket trading, Alibaba drops 2.2%, JD.com falls 2.5% and Pinduoduo declines 2.8%; Baidu -1.6%, while Bilibili -1.2%. Among electric carmakers, Nio -2.4%, Li Auto -2% and XPeng -2.4%. Even more hawkish surprises from the Fed may be on deck: according to Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya, the Fed minutes expected on Wednesday afternoon may hint at a 50 basis-point hike at the next meeting. The latest comments from policy makers, surging inflation, strong jobs data and rising wages all support an accelerated tightening campaign, she said.  “The market risks remain tilted to the downside,” said Ozkardeskaya. “If there is a good time for the Fed to hit the brakes on its ultra-lose policy, it is now.” The selloff was broad based and also hammered rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising as high as 2.65%, taking it back into the ranges traded in 2018 and 2019. Money-market traders are betting on the steepest Fed tightening in almost three decades following Brainard's comments. Sovereign debt across Europe retreated after bonds in Australia and New Zealand tumbled. “The QE honeypot looks close to being empty now,” Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note. “I’m not sure we will get a soft landing, and nor am I sure the FOMO gnomes of the equity market will be able to continue ignoring reality, particularly if U.S. yields continue to rise.” In Europe, automotive, travel, technology and consumer companies were the worst performers, leading declines in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index which dropped 1.5%. Delivery Hero sank 5% in Germany. Imperial Brands rose 3.1% after the U.K. cigarette producer forecast a slight increase in profit this year. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Chr. Hansen shares rise as much as 5.5%, leading gains on the Stoxx 600 and the Health Care sub-index, after the nutritional ingredients manufacturer reported consensus-beating 2Q earnings. Imperial Brands shares climb as much as 3.5% after the company said its FY outlook is in line with the revised guidance issued last month. It’s been a solid start to the year, RBC says. IWG shares rise as much as 6% after the stock is raised to buy from hold at Peel Hunt, with the broker seeing multiple ways the flexible offices firm could create value. Avio shares rise as much as 15% the most intraday in a year after the stock was raised to buy from neutral at Banca Akros after Amazon’s “massive order” for Ariane 6 launches. Huber + Suhner shares climb to a record high after UBS upgrades to buy from neutral, citing “under-appreciated” prospects for the maker of radio- frequency and fiber-optic technology. Semiconductor stocks lead European tech stocks lower on Wednesday as a selloff in bonds steepens amid hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard. Among semiconductor stocks, ASML drops 3.4%, ASM International -5%, Infineon -3.7%, Nordic Semi -7.6%, BE Semi -4.8% Royal Mail shares fall as much as 4.6%, hitting the lowest since Dec. 21, as Barclays cut its PT on the postal group to 400p from 640p with FY23 likely to be a challenging year. Stroeer shares drop after HSBC cut the advertising firm’s rating to hold, saying the stock may find it difficult to withstand cyclical headwinds as the Ukraine war weighs on economic growth. Avon Protection shares drop as much as 25% with Jefferies saying the protective-equipment maker’s latest update is “disappointing.” Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded lower across the board following the losses on Wall Street as Mainland China returned from its long-weekend. ASX 200 conformed to the downbeat tone which isn’t helped by the RBA’s hawkish hold yesterday. Japan's Nikkei 225 saw most of its construction and machinery-related names with losses. KOSPI was pressured by its large tech exposure. Hang Seng was also weighed on by its tech exposure as yields continued to rise overnight. The Shanghai Comp returned for the first time this week following its domestic holiday and saw less pronounced losses, with the Real Estate sector feeling relief from reports that over 60 Chinese cities ease policies on housing purchases to support the market. In rates, the Treasuries selloff extended with the curve steepening sharply out to the 10-year sector after Tuesday’s aggressive selloff -- spurred by hawkish Fed comments -- was extended during the Asia session. Wednesday’s focal points include the March FOMC minutes release, expected to feature balance-sheet runoff details. Yields are higher by as much as 8bp after the 10-year rose as much as 11bp to nearly 2.66%, highest since March 2019; The 2s10s curve is steeper by ~4.5bp on the day near 7bp, while 2s10s30s fly cheapens around 5bp follows Tuesday’s 9bp jump wider; 10s30s curve spread is back around 2bp after briefly inverting for first time since 2006. Into the selloff, long-end swap spreads have widened, 10- and 30-year by 1bp-2bp. In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index fades a push higher to trade flat. GBP and NZD are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, CHF and JPY underperform. In FX, a gauge of the dollar’s strength rose to a three-week peak.   In commodities, WTI crude rose above $103 a barrel, before stalling near $104 . Worries remain that Russia’s growing isolation over the war in Ukraine may further disrupt commodity flows. Fresh sanctions on Russia are expected, including a U.S. ban on investment in the country and a European Union proscription on coal imports. Most base metals trade in the red; LME lead falls 0.7%, underperforming peers. Spot gold rises roughly $6 to trade near $1,929/oz. Crypto markets experienced sudden selling pressure overnight with Bitcoin losing USD 45k, a level it has acquired a foothold on during the European session   Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 1% to 4,475.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 458.77 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.66% Euro little changed at $1.0912 Brent Futures up 0.9% to $107.63/bbl MXAP down 1.4% to 179.00 MXAPJ down 1.2% to 593.59 Nikkei down 1.6% to 27,350.30 Topix down 1.3% to 1,922.91 Hang Seng Index down 1.9% to 22,080.52 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,283.43 Sensex down 0.8% to 59,672.08 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 7,490.09 Kospi down 0.9% to 2,735.03 Brent Futures up 0.9% to $107.63/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,923.71 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 99.50 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Money-market traders are betting the Federal Reserve will implement 225 basis points of interest-rate hikes by the end of the year. Factoring in the hike already delivered in March, that would mean an increase of 2.5 percentage points for the whole year. The Fed hasn’t done that much tightening in one year since 1994, a famously brutal year for bond investors that even included a 75 basis-point hike The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index fell below a measure of so-called par value Tuesday, with its price falling to 99.9 -- under the key 100 level at which bonds are often sold to investors. It’s the first time since 2008 that the gauge has traded at a discount to face value The Federal Reserve will unveil details of its likely plans to shrink its massive balance sheet with the release of minutes of the U.S. central bank’s March meeting, as policy makers confront the highest inflation in four decades Leaving the European Central Bank to fight the current bout of energy-driven inflation alone would only work at a steep cost to society, according to Executive Board member Fabio Panetta German factory orders fell in February, dropping for the first time in four months in the runup to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and underscoring concerns over slower growth in Europe’s largest economy Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan approved on Wednesday a set of changes to the country’s electoral rules that would bolster his party’s prospects and consolidate the shift toward an all- powerful presidency set to be tested at the ballot box next year The U.S., European Union and Group of Seven are coordinating on a fresh round of sanctions on Russia, including a U.S. ban on investment in the country and an EU ban on coal imports, following the discovery of civilian murders and other atrocities in Ukrainian towns abandoned by retreating Russian forces The European Union’s foreign policy chief described a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping as a “deaf dialog,” casting doubt on how much cooperation the Asian nation will offer to end the war in Ukraine A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac markets traded lower across the board following the losses on Wall Street; Mainland China returned from its long-weekend. ASX 200 conformed to the downbeat tone which isn’t helped by the RBA’s hawkish hold yesterday. Nikkei 225 saw most of its construction and machinery-related names with losses. KOSPI was pressured by its large tech exposure. Hang Seng was also weighed on by its tech exposure as yields continued to rise overnight. Shanghai Comp returned for the first time this week following its domestic holiday and saw less pronounced losses, with the Real Estate sector feeling relief from reports that over 60 Chinese cities ease policies on housing purchases to support the market. Top Asian News Hong Kong Chief Secretary John Lee Resigns, Government Says China Backs Ex-Security Chief to Lead Hong Kong, SCMP Says Singaporeans Need $73,549 Just for Right to Buy a Car EU’s Top Envoy Calls Summit With China’s Xi a ‘Deaf Dialog’ European bourses deteriorated further from a tepid cash open, in-fitting with the Wall St./APAC handover, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.6% Such downside was exacerbated by weak Construction PMIs and as yields continue to make further advances ahead of ECB's Lane & FOMC Minutes. As such, the NQ -1.0% is the morning's laggard, though price action thus far has seen the ES give-up 4500 ahead of the 200-DMA at 4484. Top European News U.K. Covid Cases at Highest Level as Immunity Wanes, Study Finds Erdogan Changes Turkey’s Electoral Laws to Bolster His Rule BNP Allows Staff in Europe to Work From Home Half the Time Infineon, STMicro Attractively Valued Despite Softer 2023: Citi In FX, dollar fades fast following rapid rise to fresh 2022 high post-hawkish Fed Brainard and pre-FOMC minutes - DXY reaches 99.759 before retreat to sub 99.500. Swedish Krona outperforms after latest comments from Riksbank member Floden upping the ante for a near term repo rise, EUR/SEK capped below 10.3000. Franc lags as yield and policy divergence weigh and EUR/CHF cross rebounds in a fashion that suggests official intervention, USD/CHF tests 0.9350 and EUR/CHF close to 1.0200 vs sub-1.0150 at one stage. Euro and Pound take advantage of Buck pull back and some chart support to recoup losses, EUR/USD and Cable back on 1.0900 and 1.3100 handles after dip through 1.0895 Fib and 1.3050. Yen reverses more repatriation gains as BoJ maintains YCC, USD/JPY hovering beneath 124.05 peak. In commodities, WTI and Brent are firmer, shrugging off the tepid tone and benefitting from geopolitical premia. amid ongoing sanction announcements/ discussions. However, the benchmarks are once again in relatively thin ranges of circa. USD 3.00/bbl at present. US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.08mln (exp. -2.1mln), Cushing +1.791mln, Gasoline -0.543mln (exp. +0.1mln), Distillate +0.593mln (exp. -0.8mln). Gas flows via Yamal-Europe pipeline resume eastward, according to Gascade data, according to Reuters; however, subsequently reported that such flows have stopped. Spot gold/silver are modestly firmer, benefitting from the general risk tone and as the USD takes a breather from recent advances. Central Banks ECB's Wunsch said the inflation target is essentially met and expects the deposit rate to be raised to zero by year end. He said the ECB's rate could rise to 1.5-2% in the longer term, but caveat that even within the ECB there has been no discussion about raising interest rates, according to Reuters. ECB's Panetta says they would not hesitate to tighten policy if supply shocks fed into domestic inflation, not seeking any de-anchoring of inflation expectations. Asking the ECB to bring down high inflation in the near-term would be extremely costly. RBA's Deputy Governor Bullock notes Australian labour market is tight, was seeing some response in wages, with unemployment at 4.0%. Expects some revision upward in inflation forecasts; are now seeing more underlying inflation pressures. Riksbank's Floden says inflation will be much higher in the coming year than predicted in February. We must raise the policy rate much earlier than previously planned. Evident we must reassess and substantial adj. monetary policy plans. US Event Calendar 07:00: April MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -6.8% 14:00: March FOMC Meeting Minutes Central Banks 09:30: Fed’s Harker Discusses the Economic Outlook 14:00: March FOMC Meeting Minutes DB's Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap DB Research have released a significant World Outlook document yesterday, in which we’ve updated our views on the global economy and financial markets given developments since the start of the year. In terms of the key takeaways, we’ve downgraded our growth forecasts, with an out-of-consensus view that a US recession is now the base case by the end of next year, since higher inflation will require a more aggressive tightening in monetary policy from central banks, and we now see the Fed moving much faster, with 50bp hikes at the next 3 meetings, and a terminal rate of 3.6% by mid-2023. The outlook has been further dampened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has pushed up energy prices and led to further disruption for key commodity markets and supply chains. With the outlook moving in a more stagflationary direction, we expect growth to slow materially in the second half of 2023, tipping the US into recession by the end of that year. Indeed historically, there’s been just 2 occasions over the last 70 years when the Fed has raised rates by 300bps and left inflation on a downward trajectory without causing a recession. And as we’ve written many times in the EMR, the recent inversion of the 2s10s curve has on average preceded the start of a recession by around 18 months (see more in our recent chartbook here). Over in the Euro Area, we’re also forecasting a more aggressive tightening cycle, with the ECB raising rates by 250bps between this September and December 2023. But unlike in the US, we think Euro Area growth will be modestly above zero in the winter of 2023-24. Along with the updated call for US recession, Jim’s also expecting credit spreads to widen out by the end of next year. See the full credit update from him here. Many of those themes we wrote about in the World Outlook were echoed in markets over the last 24 hours, with a massive bond selloff that was turbocharged by some hawkish rhetoric from Fed Governor Brainard (who’s also been nominated to become Vice Chair). Among the headlines, she said the FOMC would “continue tightening policy methodically” and would start reducing the balance sheet “at a rapid pace as soon as our May meeting.” Furthermore, she went on to say that she expected the balance sheet “to shrink considerably more rapidly than in the previous recovery, with significantly larger caps and a much shorter period to phase in the maximum caps compared with 2017-19.” Today’s FOMC minutes should give more detail about what QT may look like, which our US econ team and Tim from our team covered here. And there was also a comment that inflation was “subject to upside risks”. Brainard is typically perceived to be dovish, that the comments came from her left little doubt about the consensus of the entire committee voting bloc. Those remarks saw market pricing shift to expect even more aggressive moves from the Fed over the rest of the year. In fact by yesterday’s close, futures were pricing in an 83% chance of a 50bps move at the next meeting in May, whilst the amount of tightening priced for 2022 as a whole hit its highest yet as well, with 220bps worth of further hikes on top of the 25bps from last month. If realised, that would be the largest amount of Fed tightening in a single calendar year since 1994, when they moved Fed funds up by 250bps, and remember that our economists’ latest forecasts now see the Fed matching that 250bps worth of hikes this year as well. Terminal rates are also repricing higher, with 1y1y OIS rates hitting their highest level this cycle at 3.17%, up from 1.11% at the start of the year. These expectations of a more aggressive Fed led to a major selloff in Treasuries across maturities, with yields on 10yr Treasuries up by +15.2bps to 2.55% by the close, echoing the volatility in yields we saw at the start of last month as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine got underway, and marking the largest daily rise in the 10yr yield since the Covid-induced volatility in March 2020. That also marks the first time the 10yr yield has closed above 2.5% since May 2019, and the move went alongside a large rise in real yields (+9.7bps) as well, which at -0.31% put it at levels not seen since March 2020 as well. Another feature of yesterday was that the big rise in yields at the long end of the curve proved enough to un-invert the 2s10s curve, which ended the day in positive territory for the first time since last Wednesday, at 2.5bps. And this morning those moves have gained added momentum, with the 10yr Treasury up another +7.1bps to 2.62%, and the 10yr real yield up +5.8bps to -0.25%. That selloff in Treasuries was echoed in Europe too yesterday, with yields on 10yr bunds (+10.8bps), OATs (+14.9bps), BTPs (+19.3bps) and gilts (+10.7bps) all seeing similarly big rises. From Europe, one interesting point to note is that the spread of French 10yr yields over bunds widened to 54bps yesterday, which is its widest level in almost 2 years. That came amidst a broader underperformance in French assets yesterday, with the CAC 40 index losing -1.28% as the tightening polls ahead of the first round this Sunday have led to increasing doubt as to whether President Macron will win another term in office. He’s still ahead in the polls for now, but the gap between himself and his main challenger Marine Le Pen has narrowed in Politico’s polling average from a peak of 30%-17% less than a month ago to just 27%-21% now. Furthermore, the second round average is at 54%-46%, which is also significantly tighter than Macron’s 66%-34% victory over Le Pen in 2017. US equities were also affected by the more hawkish rhetoric from Governor Brainard, and the S&P 500 fell -1.26% as investors continued to price in higher interest rates. Cyclical sectors were among the worst performers, and technology stocks lost significant ground with the NASDAQ (-2.26%) and the FANG+ index (-3.28%) both undergoing serious declines. In Europe the situation was somewhat better, although the main indices there closed before the later decline in the US, meaning that the STOXX 600 still advanced +0.19%. As mentioned however, that masked serious regional divergences, with the FTSE 100 advancing +0.72%, whilst the Germany’s DAX (-0.65%) and France’s CAC 40 (-1.28%) both lost ground. Staying on Europe, there were further developments on Russian sanctions yesterday, with the EU proposing a 5th package of measures that would include an import ban on Russian coal, among others. Commission President von der Leyen said that they were working on further sanctions “including on oil imports”, but there wasn’t yet a discussion about banning either oil or gas, with differing opinions among the member states on such a move. That pattern of losses has been seen overnight in Asia as well, where equity markets are trading in negative territory amidst that continued rise in Treasury yields overnight. The Nikkei (-1.89%) is leading losses across the region with the Hang Seng (-1.69%) trading sharply lower as the index reopened after a holiday. Stocks in mainland China are also struggling with the Shanghai Composite (-0.29%) and CSI (-0.52%) both down after their own reopenings following holidays, which also comes as the Caixin services PMI dropped to 42.0, its lowest level since February 2020 and beneath the 49.7 reading expected by the consensus. Looking ahead, equity futures are pointing towards further losses today, with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.04%) and the DAX (-0.41%) both falling. Data releases took something of a back seat yesterday, but we did get the release of the final services and composite PMIs from around the world, with many European countries having upward revisions relative to the flash readings. For example, the Euro Area composite PMI came in at 54.9 (vs. flash 54.5), whilst the UK composite PMI came in at 60.9 vs. flash 59.7). The US was one of the few exceptions, where the composite PMI was revised down to 57.7 (vs. flash 58.5), and the ISM services index also came in modestly beneath expectations at 58.3 (vs. 58.5 expected), although that did mark a rebound following 3 consecutive months of declines. To the day ahead now, and the release of the FOMC minutes from the March meeting will be one of the main highlights later. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, Chief Economist Lane, and Philadelphia Fed President Harker. Data releases include the UK and German construction PMIs for March, German factory orders for February, and Euro Area PPI for February. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/06/2022 - 08:03.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytApr 6th, 2022

Top Stock Picks For 2022

2022 is a stock pickers market and the recent dip provides us with some favorable pricing for these winning picks. After a brief yield-fueled market pullback to start the year, 2022’s looks ripe with fresh investment opportunities. Below I break down 6 innovation-powered picks for the rapidly digitalizing economic environment that the new normal is poised to drive materially higher.An Accommodative FedFed Chair Powell's dovish words of relief in his reconfirmation hearing on Capitol Hill provided a friendly bid for recently pressured equities (especially deeply discounted innovation), giving US Treasury yields a chance to take a momentary pause before the Fed's January meeting at the end of this month.Jerome Powell remains stoic in his positioning regarding the persistent nature of global supply and demand imbalances that he maintains are being generated by relentless COVID pressures, which have yet to subside (I agree with this perspective).Jerome acknowledged that the aggressive monetary stimulus the Fed provided public markets for nearly 2 years now is no longer necessary but didn't sound anxious to raise the Fed Funds rate back to pre-pandemic levels in any expedited manner.Powell reiterated what he had said in December's FOMC meeting: we are operating in a digitalized economic environment that is entirely different than the one we left behind in 2019 (no past comparable can be used as reference). The Fed has lowered its long-term target Fed Funds range by 50 basis points since the pandemic began, implying a systemic economic shift that could support lower rates.Jerome's dovish comments about the natural inflation curbing ahead coupled with a slow and steady monetary tightening strategy were just what the market needed to hear. Powell may have put a bottom in for the best-positioned high-growth stocks in the market. It's time to get greedy as others remain fearful.CrowdStrike (CRWD)When asked what he thought the greatest threat to the US economy was at present, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's answer wasn't the Omicron-variant, inflation, or even global economic turmoil but a cyberattack on a prominent US financial institution. CrowdStrike CRWD and its unmatchable cutting-edge AI-fueled cybersecurity platform is the long-term opportunity for this looming digital threat. Any price below $200 a share is a steal for CRWD.CrowdStrike is trusted by Wall Street's top firms, including Goldman Sachs GS and Credit Suisse CS, who can't afford to have any digital vulnerabilities.CrowdStrike is a modern cloud-based solution for the escalating security threats that the increasingly mobile internet age has brought. This company leverages AI, cloud computing, and graph databases for its vigilant security software. CrowdStrike's security AI is perpetually improving as it advances from crowdsourcing and economies of scale. CRWD's cloud-based Falcon platform is an intelligent and evolving digital protector that detects and stops breaches in real-time. This business was provided with a tremendous tailwind in 2020 as the enterprise's best-in-class AI-driven cybersecurity platform became arguably the most sought-after in the industry. Business spending is taking off as we enter 2022 and the economy finally reemerges from the Pandemic downturn. Upgrading cybersecurity is on the top of that Cap Ex list for many financial institutions. CrowdStrike's best-in-class AI-powered Falcon platforms are the obvious solution to any business's digital susceptibility concerns.The TradeThe Fed has now set its interest rate expectations for 2022, and I believe it's prudent to start a position in this best-in-class cybersecurity stock for the future.The market looks to have put in a bottom to CRWD's precipitous decline at just below $175 a share. Look to buy CRWD between $200 and $190, which I presume we reach at some point in today's session, with profit pulling in mega-cap tech weighing on sentiment for high-valuation stocks.Final Thought On CRWDCrowdStrike is taking over the cybersecurity space with its unmatchable threat detection and immediate response capabilities that continue to improve as its proven AI-driven platform learns and adapts to mounting risks. No matter what happens in the broader economy, there will continue to be a swelling demand for this technology as the rapid digital adaptation exposes more and more endpoint liabilities.The company is expected to turn a full-year profit in 2022. Its proliferating subscription-based business model provides the visibility & reliability that justify its still frothy valuation (24x price to forward sales).This is a high-risk/high-reward play, so I am only giving it a 5% allocation. Still, with price targets averaging around $300 a share, I am confident that reward far outweighs the risk in the long run, as long as you can stomach some short-term volatility.ACM Research (ACMR)The time to reopen our Headline Trader portfolio to the recently suppressed Chinese stocks has come, with Biden's administration making clear efforts to resume its alliance with Beijing (after years of political turmoil). At the same time, China's overdue economic recovery commences as it prepares for the 2022 Olympics in Beijing, which is now less than 4 weeks away.At the same time, the ripping rally in US public equities has been decelerating over the past 2 months, following an over 100% bull run from the S&P 500 since the pandemic lows in March 2020 (40% above pre-pandemic high), and investors are beginning to look abroad for higher return opportunities.I am adding ACM Research ACMR, a niche small-cap semiconductor play with ideal exposure in Asia. ACMR provides substantial upside potential at its currently discounted valuation, with its rapidly accelerating chipmaking capacity and its strategic Chinese exposure being the primary buy catalyst.ACM Research is a global leader in semiconductor equipment. As chip manufacturers in Asia begin ramping up production, ACM's best-in-class chipmaking equipment is poised to take flight following a year and a half of sideways trading action.Chip demands far surpassing current production capacities entering the digital renaissance of the 4th Industrial Revolution, positioning this business to explode as the Roaring 20s recommence.China Risk's May Be USChinese stocks have been hammered for nearly a year now, as President Xi and his increasingly autocratic communist administration crackdown on the swelling wealth in its booming tech sector. Xi's fear of losing control of "his" nation to a wealthy group of elites is reminiscent of Mao Zedong's totalitarian regime.This paranoid egotistical positioning has led to a tidal wave of new tech-focused regulations under the guise of elevating "equality" and improved "productivity." These have capitulated the value of this nation's most prominent innovators by a meaningful amount.Those stocks that had been at the center of these regulatory headwinds have seen their share values significantly deteriorate, presenting some superior long-term prospects as the global economy reemerges from the pandemic with a digitally fueled ambition.The CatalystACM Research is a US-based capital equipment firm. Yet, its 3 most prominent customers, representing 76% of 2020 revenue, are based in mainland China, with another nearly 10% of its sales going to a South Korean chip innovator. Over the past 5 years, China and Korea have seen their semiconductor spaces drive compounded annual revenue growth of 20.7% & 19.5% and have become the epicenter for future development for ACMR.As ACM Research takes advantage of the booming demand, this chip equipment powerhouse is rapidly ramping up its own equipment production capacity and capabilities (more offerings) in the region. The company has several new expansion projects for organic growth that will continue to fuel this stock's growth in 2022.ACMR remains a small-cap equity with a market cap of less than $1.5 billion, but with proven profitable growth between 35% - 45% in the past 3 years, and a place in Morgan Stanley's short list of 2022 chip picks, it’s only a matter of time before the market gets wind of this unique investment thesis and lifts ACMR out of its small-cap shadow and into the large-cap spotlight.6 out of 6 analysts are calling ACMR a buy today now, with price targets between $100 and $150 (representing upsides between 27% and 92%). Not to mention the increasingly bullish outlook on ACMR has thrusted this stock into a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).SMART Global Holdings (SGH)SMART Global Holdings SGH is the under-the-radar semiconductor stock you've been looking for, with its broadening portfolio of cutting-edge chips poised to take flight in this commencing technological Renaissance.SGH is roaring out of the shadows with an ambitious growth strategy that won't remain under the investors' radars for much longer. New CEO Mark Adams is transforming this once complacent memory-focused legacy tech business into a motivated leader in niche innovations.The company released a record quarterly report at the start of 2022, blowing analysts' estimates out of the water and raising forward guidance. However, SGH's undiscovered attributes appear to have both positive and negative consequences, which we saw in its (unwarranted) post-earnings capitulation. This drop-off is a technical retreat catalyzed by the overbought RSI levels it had reached in recent weeks after an over 100% 52-week run into this year opening earnings report (confusion about the upcoming stock split may also be playing a role).The good news is that it presents us with an excellent long-term investment and short-term trading opportunity as the stock picks up support at its 50-day moving average.SMART Global shares' exceedingly thin trading volumes (low liquidity due to its under-the-radar quality) allowed a small group of controlling institutional shareholders to direct its post-earnings narrative. They pulled profits from this recent winner (up 70% since mid-October), and the downward momentum catalyzed a fear-fueled momentum sell-off.The TradeDon't let these big-shot Wall Street firms scare you away from this clear-cut winner. SGH's post-earnings capitulation is extraordinarily overdone and with the recent shareholder shuffle.Silver Lake, a nearly $100 billion tech-focus private equity fund, had been the primary shareholders of SGH since it went public in 2017 until this past fall when the global investment group completely exited the trade (with public returns of nearly 400% in just a few years), leaving $10s of millions in stock value up for grabs.SMART Global's ownership has since been erratic, with most of the investing world still unaware of this small-cap stock's existence. SGH's ownership is almost entirely institutional at this point, and with the already thin volumes, its vulnerability to short-term price manipulation is high.Nevertheless, those analysts covering SGH are more bullish than ever after its most recent quarterly release.The Earnings ReportSMART Global SGH reported its November quarter results (fiscal Q1 2022) after the closing bell Tuesday afternoon (1/4), beating analysts' estimates and raising guidance, yet SGH fell off a cliff. SMART Global achieved record revenues and margins that flowed down to an incredible 177% increase in per-share profits, with its top-of-the-line intelligence platforms (AI, HPC, & other cloud-functionality) being this next-generation innovator's primary growth driver.SGH was down as much as 18% in its post-earnings price action, but I remain unconvinced that it will stay below $70 a share for long. This knee-jerk sell-off reaction resulted from its small market cap (less than $1.5 billion), concentrated ownership, and overbought RSI levels, which SGH had floated up into following its sizable 25% end-of-year rally.SGH also announced that it would be initiating a 2-for-1 stock split, which would go into effect at the beginning of February. This is a clear signal from SMART Global's new CEO, Mark Adams, whose savvy ambition for innovative growth is the primary reason we are in SGH, that this stock is headed much higher. Either way, I'm more bullish on SGH post-earnings than ever before.The TransformationNow is the time to add this hidden gem to your portfolio before the broader investing world catches wind of this discounted chip winner.SMART Global has been around since the late 80s, but it wasn't until Mark Adams took the helm amid the pandemic last year that this chipmaker's upside potential went through the roof. Adams is transforming this once complacent memory-focused legacy tech company into an energized visionary.Adams was the leading force behind SGH's quick strategic acquisition of Cree's niche LED chip business at the peak of pandemic fear for a steal at $300 million. Cree LED's synergies are already paying dividends as it drives margin expansion, improves the firm's capital & operational efficiency, and provides critical industry relationships.SMART Global's new forward-thinking chief has already vastly improved its operational performance and is ramping up R&D spending to ensure that the enterprise remains ahead of the innovative curve.Analysts are getting increasingly bullish on this under-the-radar transformation play as SGH flips the switch on accelerating profitable growth, knocking estimates out of the park by an expanding percentage over the past 3 quarters. Zacks Consensus EPS Estimates for SGH's have been soaring across all time horizons after this most recent quarterly report driving the stock into a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), and all 6 covering analysts agree on a buy rating for the unique value opportunity here.The New Business MixSMART Global Holdings had been a reliable pure-play memory leader in the chip space for over 30 years before deciding to broaden its product portfolio, which appeared to be catalyzed by activist investors following SGH's 2017 IPO. The company has since executed 4 strategic acquisitions.Penguin Computing was SGH's first vital acquisition ($85 million price tag) back in 2018, adding a broad portfolio of leading next-generation products, including high-performance computing (HPC), cloud computing, hyperscale data centers, and the development of artificial intelligence (AI). This segment has exploded since its acquisition as its AI-focused products experience budding demand. In the summer of 2019, this resourceful chip giant acquired Artesyn Embedded Computing and Inforce Computing for $80 million and $12 million, respectively. Artesyn (which is now called Smart Embedded Computing) provides critical data center architecture used in "industries such as telecom, military and aerospace, medical, and diverse automation and industrial markets," according to its website.SMART Wireless Computing (formerly known as Inforce Computing) exposes the enterprise to cutting-edge technologies like "medical imaging, collaboration/videoconferencing, wearable hands-free computing, and robotics/unmanned aerial vehicles," according to its investor relations page.SMART's diverse set of growing end-market demands provides the company with an enormous total addressable market (TAM), significant upside potential, and not to mention an excellent hedge against the cyclical nature of the semiconductor market.The mere 11x forward P/E that SGH is currently trading at is a remarkably underappreciated valuation multiple for a high-growth tech business that is expected to exhibit consistent 20%+ earnings growth in the years to come.Final Thoughts On SGHWith its fresh innovation-oriented operational outlay, Mark Adams at the helm (with a now proven track record of skilled management), and an industry-wide outlook of accelerating growth, the future SGH has never been brighter. SGH’s post-earnings capitulation has presented us with an incredible investment opportunity today.Analysts are more bullish than ever on this undiscovered profitable growth chip innovator, which will likely not remain under the broader market’s radar for long. I’m looking at price targets between $90 and $100 a share.Uber (UBER)Uber's UBER heavily discounted valuation is finally receiving the attention it deserves as investors begin to recognize the opportunity that this leading mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) business provides in the new normal. Uber Eats & Uber Rides are poised to explode with margin expanding growth in the new normal as our digitally conditioned global economy relies on these leading mobility services more than ever.A flood of analysts are coming out with exceptionally bullish outlooks on this next-generation global leader in digitally fueled mobility solutions. 22 out of 25 analysts are calling Uber a buy now, with no sell ratings. UBER is trading 75% below its average price target of more than $70 a share and it continues to rise.Alaskan Air (ALK)Alaskan Air ALK is perfectly positioned for the 2022 as it becomes the go-to budget airliner. Alaskan took advantage of the unique growth opportunity the pandemic shutdowns presented, adding 70 new markets, and is one of the few commercial airlines to return to profitability in the third quarter of 2021. Its commitment to customer satisfaction and focus on ESG goals will keep ALK at the top of its class.  The CompanyAlaskan Air ALK, primarily driven by vacationers instead of business travel, generated its first positive quarterly earnings since the pandemic began in Q3 as it benefited from the summer getaway rush. I see ALK as the best-positioned airline moving forward with its best-in-class budget vacation offering and still ripening synergies from its acquisition of Virgin America back in 2016.ALK has been an outperforming airline throughout the pandemic with an ESG-focus and no business travel reliance. Analysts have been pushing their price targets to around $80 a share (38% upside), with estimated record earnings by 2023. ALK just busted above its 50-day moving average, and is on its way towards its consensus price target.With remote working functionalities like cloud computing, video conferencing, team messaging, workflow automation, etc., analysts are beginning to rightly question whether companies will be paying up for flights when the job can and has proven to be done in a remote environment.Corporate travel will not return to pre-pandemic levels, at least not anytime soon, and the stocks to stick with are the budget vacation plays, with Alaskan Air being at the top of that value list. I’m looking at price targets between $75 and $100 a share, for this airliner of the New Normal.Upstart (UPST)Upstart UPST, the AI-driven fintech innovator changing the way creditworthiness is assessed, is ripe for a buy today with a couple of key support levels ready to maintain its recent buoyancy, following an overdone sell-off.The final quarter of 2021 was horrendous for the top fintech innovators, with Cathie Wood's ARK Invest Fintech ETF ARKF, the benchmark for next-generation digital finance, falling over 25%. Investors have been selling growth stocks indiscriminately, creating some excellent buying opportunities for the best-positioned fintech equities.UPST has seen significant valuation compression from its mid-October 2021 highs at $400, but the over 1,500% gain it saw from its IPO last December may have been a little overzealous. With UPST now 70% below those highs, it's time to consider adding UPST to your portfolio.Upstart's recent capitulation was catalyzed by profit-pulling in the face of Q3 earnings coupled with the Fed's accelerating tapering timeline, which has valuation compressing impacts on this fintech giant, do to its outsized growth outlay (analysts expecting to see 250% topline appreciation in 2021).UPST found critical support at a vital Fib-derived level around $160, where the markets appear to have put in a temporary bottom.I am looking at a UPST price target of $300+ with quarterly performance continuously outpacing even the most optimistic analysts. Upstart is looking at an unprecedented profitable growth outlook, and with most fresh fintech startups not even able to post positive earnings, UPST is more attractive than ever.The BusinessThis AI-powered cloud incepted fintech business is changing the way banks assess creditworthiness. Many fintech giants are competing against banks, but Upstart has decided to partner with them in its next-generation offering. This is an excellent position to be in as a high-growth company in a rising interest rate environment because higher rates means more profits for banks, which should inevitably drive significant demand for Upstart's one-of-a-kind product offering.The AI platform uses more than 1,600 differing variables before coming to the conclusion of creditworthiness compared to the typical bank, which only looks at 8-15 and the most sophisticated models 30.Upstart's CEO David Girouard said his lending algorithm is 5 times more effective than current systems at accurately depicting a person's ability to repay a loan. Saying that on a scale of 1-100, the current credit regimes are only at about 2 on predicting risk of default, and David believes his AI platform would put banks at closer to a 10, with still a lot more room to grow. Upstart's AI is continuously learning and will continue to be more effective as it is provided with more datasets.A Strategy To Stick To Amid 2022’s Chop:“Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful”Continue to buy the dips in your favorite stocks and look past the short-term volatility (don’t let this choppy market discourage you).Happy Trading!Dan LaboeEquity Strategist & Manager of The Headline Trader Portfolio at Zacks Investment Research Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple-Digit Profit Potential The biotech sector is projected to surge beyond $2.4 trillion by 2028 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases. They’re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases. Zacks has just released Century of Biology: 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance. Recommendations from previous editions of this report have produced gains of +205%, +258% and +477%. The stocks in this report could perform even better.See these 7 breakthrough stocks now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS): Free Stock Analysis Report Credit Suisse Group (CS): Free Stock Analysis Report ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR): Free Stock Analysis Report Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK): Free Stock Analysis Report SMART Global Holdings, Inc. (SGH): Free Stock Analysis Report ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF): ETF Research Reports Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER): Free Stock Analysis Report CrowdStrike (CRWD): Free Stock Analysis Report Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJan 13th, 2022

"Santa Rally Is Finally Here": Futures Hit All Time High Day After Powell Goes Full Jean-Claude Trichet

"Santa Rally Is Finally Here": Futures Hit All Time High Day After Powell Goes Full Jean-Claude Trichet One day before what everyone knew would be a hawkish pivot by the Fed, the mood was dour with tech names tumbling and futures hanging one for dear life. One day after, Jerome Powell confirmed he would go full Jean-Claude Trichet as the Fed would not only turbo-taper into a sharply slowing economy, ending its QE program by March but then proceed with hiking rates as many as 3 times in 2022 (more than the 2 hike consensus), with the BOE shocking markets moments ago with a surprise rate hike and even the ECB trimming its turbo QE, and futures are.... at all time highs. That's right - eminis are higher by 140 points in 24 hours because the Fed was more hawkish than consensus expected.  At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 215 points, or 0.61%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 27.25 points, or 0.57%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 100 points, or 0.61%. Treasury yields jumped alongside European bonds after the BOE became the first major central bank to raise rates since the pandemic, while the dollar fell and the pound jumped. The Euro also hit session highs after the ECB seemed to turn ever so slightly more hawkish as its monthly QE is set to shrink in the coming year. "The market likes facts it can digest. With the uncertainty now gone, it finds relief,” said Frederik Hildner, a portfolio manager at Salm-Salm & Partner. Gradual rising rates “provides more firepower for the next downturn, as it displays the ability normalize monetary policy.” On Wednesday, Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy no longer needed increasing amounts of policy support as annual inflation has been running at more than double the central bank's target in recent months, while the economy nears full employment. Recent readings on surging producer and consumer prices as well as the fast-spreading Omicron variant of the coronavirus have fueled anxiety as the benchmark S&P 500 inches closer to a record high. "Is the Santa Rally finally here? Markets certainly seem to have a spring in their step... the prospect of three interest rate hikes in 2022 would suggest the central bank has a clear plan to not let inflation get out of control," Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell wrote in a client note. "Equally, it isn't being too aggressive to trip up the economy. This sense of balance is exactly what investors want, and an upbeat tone from the Fed certainly seems to have rubbed off on markets" Bell said, clearly goalseeking his narrative to the market's response as just 24 hours later he would be saying just the opposite when futures were tanking of hawkish Fed fears. Big tech stocks and banks led gains in premarket trading. Shares in Tesla, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon.com rose between 0.7% and 2.4%, with the lift pushing Apple shares nearer to an historic market value of $3 trillion. Bank stocks including JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup all gained between 0.7% and 0.8%. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Apple (APPL) and other big U.S. tech stocks rise after the Federal Reserve said that it would speed up its taper, joining in with a broader relief rally across risk assets. Apple shares are up 0.6%, with the stock drawing nearer to an historic market capitalization of $3 trillion. Also Thursday, Goldman Sachs said lead times for Apple’s iPhone have declined in the latest week. Assertio (ASRT US) shares rise 4% after the company announced the $44 million acquisition of the Otrexup device from Antares Pharma. Blue Bird (BLBD US) dropped 6% after the school bus-maker provided a weaker-than-expected sales outlook. The company also offered $75m shares at $16/share in a private placement. Danimer Scientific (DNMR) falls 10% after announcing that it plans to offer $175 million of convertible senior notes. Delta Air Lines (DAL) is up 2% after saying it expects to report a profit for the fourth quarter, citing a strong demand for travel over the winter holiday period and a decline in jet fuel prices. Other airline stocks are also higher. DocuSign (DOCU) falls 2% as Morgan Stanley issued a downgrade, saying third-quarter results changed the firm’s view regarding the durability of growth through tough post-pandemic comparables. Freyr Battery (FREY) gains 14% after executing its inaugural offtake agreement for at least 31 GWh of low-carbon battery cells. IronNet (IRNT US) slumps 25% after the cybersecurity company’s results fell short of expectations, prompting a Street-low target from Jefferies. Lennar Corp. (LEN US) declined 6% after it reported a forecast for purchase contracts that was weaker than expected. Plug Power (PLUG) gains 5% after signing an agreement with Korean electric-vehicle manufacturer Edison Motors to develop an electric city bus powered by hydrogen fuel cells. Syndax Pharmaceuticals (SNDX) falls 8% after pricing 3.2 million shares at $17.50 each. Tesla (TSLA) is up 2%, rising with other electric vehicle stocks amid a broader gain in technology stocks and U.S. futures on hopes that the Federal Reserve’s policy tightening will fight high inflation without hampering economic growth. Wayfair (W) falls 2% after BofA downgraded the stock to underperform, citing weak near-term data and difficult comparisons through the first quarter of 2022 for the online furniture retailer. European equities rally with Euro Stoxx 50 up as much as 2.1% before drifting off best levels. The U.K.’s exporter-heavy FTSE 100 Index pared some gains after the BOE decision, while European dipped modestly after the European Central Bank’s meeting.  Miners, tech and autos are the best performers, utilities and media names lag. Equities have whipsawed in recent weeks as investors attempted to price in the prospect of rate hikes, while assessing risks from the spread of the omicron variant. The market’s early response to the Fed signals some relief arising from policy clarity, and optimism that the rebound from pandemic lows can weather the pivot away from ultra-loose monetary settings. “The market is breathing a sigh of relief that the FOMC meeting suggested that it is taking inflation risks in the United States more seriously,” Ann-Katrin Petersen, an investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “The question really will be whether the Fed will dare to do even more in order to taper the inflation risk.” Asian stocks rose, halting a four-day slide, as confidence in Federal Reserve policy allowed investors to take on riskier assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.8%, buoyed by energy and technology shares. Japan was Asia’s top performer, aided by a weaker yen. Hong Kong and China stocks eked out gains amid ongoing concern over U.S. sanctions. Australian equities declined for a third day. Asia’s benchmark advanced for the first time this week on hopes the Fed will effectively combat surging prices without choking off economic growth. The U.S. central bank said it will double the pace of its asset tapering program to $30 billion a month and projected three interest-rate increases in 2022. In the run-up to the Fed’s decision, Asia’s equity gauge slumped almost 2% over the past four days, keeping it below the 50-day moving average.    The short-term boost to stock market sentiment is from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments about wage inflation not being the main issue for now, and expectations that there’ll be full employment next year, said Ilya Spivak, head of Greater Asia at DailyFX. However, there’s a “meaningful risk” that the Fed’s latest policy stance will trigger liquidation as Asia stock portfolios are de-risked, Spivak said. Japan’s stocks rose for a second day after the yen weakened and U.S. stocks rallied amid speculation the Federal Reserve will combat surging prices without choking off economic growth. The Topix index climbed 1.5% to close at 2,013.08 in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 2.1% to 29,066.32. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.5%. Out of 2,181 shares in the index, 1,674 rose and 421 fell, while 86 were unchanged. “It wouldn’t be strange to see the discount on Japanese equities narrowing following the FOMC meeting results, with market interest centered around electronics, machinery, automakers and marine transportation stocks,” said Takashi Ito, an equity market strategist at Nomura Securities. Electronics firms and automakers helped lift the Topix as the yen headed for a four-day slump against the dollar, with the currency falling 0.1% to 114.19 Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.4% to close at 7,295.70, extending its losing streak to a third day.  CSL was the worst performer after the benchmark’s second-biggest company by weighting completed a placement to fund its Vifor acquisition. Mesoblast was the top performer after saying it plans to conduct an additional U.S. Phase 3 trial of rexlemestrocel-L in patients with chronic low back pain.  Investors also digested November jobs data. Australian employment soared last month, smashing expectations and pushing the jobless rate lower as virus restrictions eased on the east coast. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.7% to 12,777.54 In rates, cash USTs bull steepened, bolstered by a large curve steepener that blocked in early London. Bunds are soft at the back end, peripherals slightly wider ahead of today’s ECB meeting. Gilts bear steepen slightly, white pack sonia futures are lower by 2-3.5 ticks. In FX, the dollar slipped for a second day and oil rose; cable snapped to best levels of the week after the BOE unexpectedly hiked rates.  The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for a second day as the greenback weakened against all its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen; Tresury yields fell, led by the belly of the curve. Commodity currencies were the best G-10 performers, led by the krone, which reversed an earlier loss after Norway’s central bank raised its interest rate for the second time this year and flagged another increase in March as officials acted to cool the rebounding economy despite renewed coronavirus concerns. The Australian and New Zealand dollars reversed earlier losses amid upbeat stock markets; the Aussie earlier weakened as RBA Governor Lowe hinted at the prospect of no rate hikes next year. The yen fell as the Federal Reserve’s decision reaffirmed yield differentials ahead of the Bank of Japan’s outcome on Friday. Bonds rose after a solid auction. Elsewhere in FX, NOK outperforms in G-10 after Norges Bank rate action, other commodity currencies are similarly well bid. In commodities, Crude futures hold a narrow range around best levels of the session. WTI is up 1.1% near $71.70, Brent near $74.70. Spot gold grinds higher, adding ~$9 near $1,786/oz. LME copper outperforms in a well-bid base metals complex To the day ahead now, and the main highlights will be the aforementioned policy decisions from the ECB and the BoE. On the data side, we’ll also get the flash PMIs for December from around the world, the Euro Area trade balance for October, and in the US there’s November data on industrial production, housing starts and building permits, as well as the weekly initial jobless claims. Finally, EU leaders will be meeting for a summit in Brussels. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 4,734.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 476.39 MXAP up 0.8% to 193.11 MXAPJ up 0.5% to 623.76 Nikkei up 2.1% to 29,066.32 Topix up 1.5% to 2,013.08 Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 23,475.50 Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,675.02 Sensex up 0.1% to 57,851.57 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,295.66 Kospi up 0.6% to 3,006.41 Brent Futures up 1.0% to $74.59/bbl Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,786.03 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.36% to 96.16 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.36% Euro up 0.2% to $1.1316 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The greenback is set for its biggest annual gain in six years and its rally appears to be far from over, market participants say. The prime mover: a hawkish Federal Reserve that’s drawn a roadmap of interest-rate increases over the next three years, while other central banks look much more reticent to withdraw stimulus The ECB is poised to unveil a gradual withdrawal from extraordinary pandemic stimulus in the face of soaring inflation whose path is further clouded by the omicron coronavirus variant The “phenomenal pace” at which the new Covid-19 omicron strain is spreading across the U.K. will trigger a surge in hospital admissions over the holiday period, according to Boris Johnson’s top medical adviser The Swiss National Bank kept both the deposit and the policy rate at -0.75%, as widely predicted by economists. With the global economic recovery on shaky footing due to the omicron variant, President Thomas Jordan and fellow policy makers also reiterated their pledge to supplement subzero rates with currency interventions as needed France will impose tougher rules on people traveling from the U.K., including a ban on non-essential trips and a requirement to self-isolate, as it tries to slow the spread of the omicron variant IHS Markit said its index tracking output across the U.K. economy fell to 53.2 this month from 57.6 in November, reflecting weaker-than-expected growth in service industries including hotels, restaurants and travel-related businesses. Business-to-business services stalled European power prices soared to records after Electricite de France SA said that two nuclear reactors will stop unexpectedly and two will have prolonged halts -- just as the continent heads for a cold snap with already depleted gas inventories Hungary’s central bank increased the effective base interest rate for the fifth time in as many weeks to tackle the fastest inflation since 2007 and shore up the battered forint A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mixed as the region digested the FOMC meeting. The ASX 200 (-0.4%) was negative with heavy losses in the healthcare sector and as COVID infections remained rampant. There were also notable comments from RBA Governor Lowe that the board discussed tapering bond purchases in February and ending it in May or could even end purchases in February if economic progress is better than expected, although it is also open to reviewing bond buying again in May if the data disappoints. The Nikkei 225 (+2.1%) outperformed and reclaimed the 29k level after the Lower House recently passed the record extra budget stimulus and with the latest trade data showing double-digit percentage surges in Imports and Exports, despite the latter slightly missing on expectations. The Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) were varied with Hong Kong pressured by losses in the big tech names amid ongoing frictions between the world’s two largest economies and as US lawmakers proposed a bill to allow the US oversight of China audits, although the mainland was kept afloat amid further speculation of a potential LPR cut this month, as well as reports that China will boost financial support for small businesses and offer more longer-term loans to manufacturers. Finally, 10yr JGBs were indecisive despite the constructive mood in Tokyo and with price action stuck near the 152.00 focal point, while demand was also sidelined amid mixed results at the 20yr JGB auction and as the BoJ kickstarts its two-day meeting. Top Asian News Indonesia Reports First Omicron Case in Jakarta Facility Asia Stocks Snap Four-Day Drop as Traders Take on Risk After Fed Shimao Group Shares Set for Best Day in Month Money Manager Vanishes With $313 Million From China Builder Equities in Europe have taken their cue from the post-FOMC rally seen across Wall Street (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.6%; Stoxx 600 +1.1%) following somewhat mixed APAC trade. As a reminder, markets saw relief with one of the major risk events out of the way, and with Chair Powell refraining from throwing hawkish curveballs. That being said, the forecast does see three rate hikes next year, whilst the Fed Board next year will also be more hawkish – at least within the rotating voters - with George, Mester and Bullard poised to vote from 2022. Nonetheless, US equity future continues grinding higher with all contracts in the green and the RTY (+1.3%) outperforming vs the NQ (+0.7%), ES (+0.6%), and YM (+0.5%). Bourses in Europe also experience broad-based gains with no real outliers, although the upside momentum somewhat waned amid some softer-than-expected PMI metrics ahead of ECB. Sectors in Europe paint a clear pro-cyclical bias. Tech outperforms following a similar sectorial performance seen on Wall Street. Basic Resources and Oil & Gas follow a close second, with Autos and Travel & Leisure also among the biggest gainers. The downside sees Personal & Household Goods, Telecoms and Food & Beverages. Healthcare meanwhile fares better than its defensive peers as Novartis (+4%) is bolstered after commencing a new USD 15bln buyback, highlighting confidence in growth and pipeline. On the flip side, EDF (-12%) shares have slipped after it narrowed FY EBITDA forecasts and highlighted some faults with some nuclear reactors amid corrosion. Top European News Britain’s Covid Resurgence Cuts Growth to Slowest Since Lockdown SNB Says Franc Is Highly Valued as Omicron Clouds Outlook Norway Delivers Rate Hike That Omicron Had Threatened to Derail Erdogan Approves Third Capital Boost for State Banks Since 2019 In FX, not much bang for the Buck fits the bill accurately as it is panning out in the FOMC aftermath even though market expectations were matched and arguably exceeded in terms of dot plots showing three hikes in 2022 vs two anticipated by most and only one previously, while the unwinding of asset purchases will occur in double quick time to end in March next year instead of June. However, there appears to be enough in the overall statement, SEP and Fed chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference to offset the initial knee-jerk spike in the Dollar and index that lifted the latter very close to its current y-t-d peak at 96.914 vs 96.938 from November 24. Indeed, the terminal rate was maintained at 2.5%, no decision has been taken about whether to take a break after tapering before tightening, and the recovery in labour market participation has been disappointing to the point that it will now take longer to return to higher levels. In response, or on further reflection, the DXY has recoiled to 96.141 and through the 21 DMA that comes in at 96.238 today. NZD/AUD/CAD/GBP/EUR/CHF - All on the rebound vs their US counterpart, with the Kiwi back on the 0.6800 handle and also encouraged by NZ GDP contracting less than feared in Q3, while the Aussie is hovering around 0.7200 in wake of a stellar jobs report only partly tempered by dovish remarks from RBA Governor Lowe who is still not in the 2022 hike camp and non-committal about ending QE next February or extending until May. Elsewhere, the Loonie has clawed back a chunk of its losses amidst recovering crude prices to regain 1.2800+ status ahead of Canadian wholesale trade that is buried between a raft of US data and survey releases, Sterling is flirting with 1.3300 in advance of the BoE that is likely to hold fire irrespective of significantly hotter than forecast UK inflation, the Euro is pivoting 1.1300 pre-ECB that is eyed for details of life after the PEPP and the Franc is somewhat mixed post-SNB that maintained rates and a highly valued assessment of the Chf with readiness to intervene as required. Note, Usd/Chf is meandering from 0.9256 to 0.9221 vs Eur/Chf more elevated within a 1.0455-30 band. JPY - The Yen is underperforming on the eve of the BoJ and looking technically weak to compound its yield and rate disadvantage after Usd/Jpy closed above a key chart level on Wednesday (at 114.03). As such, Fib resistance is now exposed at 114.38 vs the circa 114.25 high, so far, while decent option expiry interest may be influential one way or the other into the NY cut given around 1.3 bn at the 114.25 strike, 1.7 bn at 114.30 and 1.2 bn or so at 114.50. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures are taking advantage of the risk appetite coupled with the softer Buck. WTI Jan trades on either side of USD 71.50/bbl (vs low USD 71.39/bbl) while Brent Feb sees itself around USD 74.50/bbl (vs low USD 74.28/bbl). Complex-specific news has again been on the quiet end, with prices working off the macro impulses for the time being, and with volumes also light heading into Christmas trade. Elsewhere spot gold and silver ebb higher – in tandem with the Dollar, with the former eyeing a group of DMAs to the upside including the 100 (1,788/oz), 21 (1,789/oz) 200 (1,794/oz) and 50 (1,796/oz). Turning to base metals, LME copper has been catapulted higher amid the risk and weaker Dollar, with prices re-testing USD 9,500/t to the upside. Meanwhile, a Chinese government consultancy has said that China's steel consumption will dip 0.7% on an annual basis in 2022 amid policies for the real estate market and uncertainties linked to COVID-19 curb demand. US event calendar 8:30am: Dec. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 200,000, prior 184,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.94m, prior 1.99m 8:30am: Nov. Housing Starts MoM, est. 3.1%, prior -0.7% 8:30am: Nov. Housing Starts, est. 1.57m, prior 1.52m 8:30am: Nov. Building Permits MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 4.0%, revised 4.2% 8:30am: Nov. Building Permits, est. 1.66m, prior 1.65m, revised 1.65m 8:30am: Dec. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 29.6, prior 39.0 9:15am: Nov. Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.7%, prior 1.2%; Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 1.6% 9:45am: Dec. Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 58.5, prior 58.3 9:45am: Dec. Markit US Services PMI, est. 58.8, prior 58.0 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Yesterday’s biggest story was obviously the Fed. In line with our US economists call (their full recap here), the FOMC doubled the pace of taper to $30bn a month, which would bring an end to QE in mid-March. The new dot plot showed three rate hikes in 2022, up from the Committee being split over one hike in September. Farther out, the median dot had 3 additional hikes in 2023 and 2 hikes in 2024, bringing fed funds just below their estimate of the longer-term rate. Notably, all 18 Committee members have liftoff occurring next year, and 10 have 3 hikes penciled in, suggesting consensus behind the recent hawkish turn was strong. Short-end market pricing increased in line and now has around 2.9 hikes priced for 2022. The first hike is fully priced for the June meeting, but notably, meetings as early as March are priced as live, more on that in a bit. In the statement, the Committee admitted that inflation had exceeded target for some time (dropping ‘transitory’ completely), and that liftoff would be tied to the economy reaching full employment. By the sounds of the press conference, progress toward full employment has proceeded pretty rapidly. Chair Powell noted that while labour force participation progress has been disappointing, almost every other measure of labour market strength shows a very strong labour market, and could create upside risks to inflation should wage growth start to increase beyond productivity. It is within that context that he framed the decision to taper faster, it will leave the Fed in a position to react as needed, providing optionality. In that vein, he stressed a few times that the lag between the end of taper and liftoff need not be as long as it was in the last cycle, and that the Fed will raise rates after taper is done whenever needed, hence meetings as early as March being live. Notably on Omicron, the Chair, like the rest of us, recognises we don’t know much about the variant yet, but seemed optimistic about the economy’s ability to withstand subsequent Covid shocks, regardless of Omicron’s specifics. While Covid shocks can tighten supply chains, discourage labour participation, and reduce demand, as more people get vaccinated those impacts should dwindle over time, so his argument went. Hammering the point home, he sounded confident that the economy can handle whatever Omicron brings without any additional QE, justifying the accelerated taper path despite Covid risks. The hawkish turn had been well forecast through Fed speakers since the last meeting, not least of which the Chair himself during Congressional testimony, which served to dull the market impact. Treasury yields were slightly higher, (2yr Tsys +0.6bps and 10yr Tsys +1.5 bps) but were quite docile for an FOMC afternoon. The dollar initially strengthened on the statement release before reversing course and ending the day -0.24% lower. Stocks were the real outperformers, as the S&P 500 rallied through the FOMC events, gaining +1.63%, the best daily performance in two months, while the Nasdaq increased +2.15%. The Russell 2000 matched the S&P, gaining +1.65%. Obviously the market was anticipating the change in policy, but if doubling taper and adding three rate hikes in the next year isn’t enough to tighten financial conditions, what is? The Chair was asked about that in so many words in the press conference, where he responded by noting financial conditions could change on a dime. Indeed, they will have to tighten from historically easy levels if the Fed is to bring inflation back to target through policy. The Fed may be out of the way now, but the central bank excitement continues today as both the ECB and the BoE announce their own policy decisions later on. We’ll start with the ECB, who like the Fed have faced much higher than expected inflation lately, with the November flash estimate coming in at +4.9%, which is the highest since the formation of the single currency. Whilst Omicron has cast a shadow of uncertainty, with Commission President von der Leyen saying yesterday that it was likely to become dominant in Europe by mid-January, our European economics team doesn’t think there has been anything concrete enough to alter the ECB from their course (like the Fed). In our European economists’ preview (link here) they write the ECB appears on track to initiate a transition to a monetary policy stance based more on policy rates and rates guidance and less on liquidity provision. The ECB is set to confirm that PEPP net purchases will end in March, but will cushion the blow by working flexibility into the post-PEPP asset purchase arrangement. They are also set to make the policy framework more flexible to better respond to inflation uncertainties. One thing to keep an eye out for in particular will be the latest inflation projections, with a report from Bloomberg suggesting that they’ll show inflation beneath the 2% target in both 2023 and 2024. So if that’s true, that could offer a route to arguing against a tightening of monetary policy for the time being, since the ECB’s forward guidance has been that it won’t raise rates until it sees inflation at the target “durably for the rest of the projection horizon”. Today’s other big decision comes from the BoE, where our UK economist is expecting that there’ll be a 15bps increase in Bank Rate, taking it up to 0.25% although they suggest it’s a very close call. See here for the rationale. Ahead of that decision later on, we received a very strong UK inflation print for November, with CPI rising to +5.1% (vs. +4.8% expected), up from +4.2% in October and the fastest pace in a decade. That’s running ahead of the BoE’s own staff forecasts in the November Monetary Policy Report, which had seen inflation at just +4.5% that month, so six-tenths beneath the realised figure. We’ll get their decision at 12:00 London time, 45 minutes ahead of the ECB’s. In terms of the latest on the Omicron variant, there are continued signs of concern in South Africa, with cases coming in at a record 26,976 yesterday, whilst the number in hospital at 7,339 is up +73% compared to a week ago. Meanwhile the UK recorded their highest number of cases since the pandemic began, at 78,610. England’s Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, said that a lot of Covid records would be broken in the coming weeks, and also that a majority of cases in London were now from the Omicron variant. Separately, the French government is set to hold a meeting tomorrow on Covid measures, and EU leaders will be discussing the pandemic at their summit today. When it comes to Omicron’s economic impact, we could see some light shed on that today as the December flash PMIs are released from around the world. Overnight we’ve already had the numbers out of Australia and Japan where hints of a slowdown are apparent. Japan's Manufacturing PMI came out at 54.2 (54.5 previous) and the Composite at 51.8 (53.3 previous) while Australia’s Manufacturing and Composite came in at 57.4 and 54.9 respectively (59.2 and 55.7 previous). Overnight in Asia stocks are trading mostly higher led by the Nikkei (+1.78%) followed by the Shanghai Composite (+0.28%), and KOSPI (+0.22%). However the CSI (-0.07%) and Hang Seng (-0.81%) are losing ground on concerns of US sanctions on Chinese tech companies. In Australia, the November employment report registered a strong beat by adding 366.1k jobs against 200k consensus. This is being reflected in a +12.75 bps surge in Australia's 3y bond. Elsewhere, in India wholesale inflation for November rose +14.2% year on year, levels last seen in 2000 against a consensus of +11.98% on the back of higher food and input prices. DM futures are indicating a positive start to markets today with S&P 500 (+0.19%) and DAX (+1.04%) contracts both higher as we type. Ahead of the Fed, European markets had put in a fairly steady performance yesterday, with the STOXX 600 up +0.26%. That brought an end to a run of 5 successive declines, with technology stocks in particular seeing an outperformance. Sovereign bond markets were also subdued ahead of the ECB and BoE meetings later, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.9bps), OATs (+0.5bps) and gilts (+1.2bps) only seeing modest moves higher. In DC, despite optimistic sounding talks earlier in the week, the latest yesterday was President Biden and Senator Manchin remained far apart on the administration’s build back better bill, imperiling its chances of passing before Christmas. Elsewhere, reports suggested the President would have more nominations for the remaining Fed Board vacancies this week. Looking at yesterday’s other data, US retail sales underwhelmed in November with growth of just +0.3% (vs. +0.8% expected), and measure excluding gas and motor vehicles was also up just +0.2% (vs. +0.8% expected). Also the NAHB’s housing market index for December moved up to a 10-month high of 84, in line with expectations. To the day ahead now, and the main highlights will be the aforementioned policy decisions from the ECB and the BoE. On the data side, we’ll also get the flash PMIs for December from around the world, the Euro Area trade balance for October, and in the US there’s November data on industrial production, housing starts and building permits, as well as the weekly initial jobless claims. Finally, EU leaders will be meeting for a summit in Brussels. Tyler Durden Thu, 12/16/2021 - 08:29.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 16th, 2021

Futures Jump In Volatile Session Dragged By Latest Twists In Omicron Saga

Futures Jump In Volatile Session Dragged By Latest Twists In Omicron Saga Much of the overnight session was a snooze fest with stocks drifting first higher then lower after surging on Tuesday, as the narrative meandered from "omicron fears ease" optimism to "vaccines won't work" pessimism, before futures took a sudden leg lower, dropping into the red just after 530am ET, following news that UK's Boris Johnson would introduce new restrictions in England to curb Omicron spread, sparking fears that Omicron is more dangerous that expected (and than futures reflected). However, this episode of pessimism proved short-lived because just an hour later, the WSJ confirmed that Omicron is really just a pitch for covid booster shots when it reported that even though the covid vaccine loses significant effectiveness against Omicron in an early study, this is miraculously reversed with a booster shot as three doses of the vaccine were able to neutralize the variant in an initial laboratory study, and the companies said two doses may still protect against severe disease. Futures quickly shot up on the news, spiking above the gamma "all clear" level of 4,700 in a move best summarized with the following chart. And so, after going nowhere, S&P futures climbed for a third day, last seen 12 points, or 0.3% higher, just around 4,700 after rising the most since March on Tuesday. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index rose following the biggest jump in more than a year. In addition to the omicron soap opera, which as we noted yesterday turns out was just one staged covid booster shot advertisement (because Pfizer and Moderna can always do with a bigger yacth), sentiment was also lifted by Chinese authorities' reversal to "easing mode" and aggressive efforts to limit the fallout from property market woes which lifted risk assets in Asia even as key debt deadlines at China Evergrande Group and Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. passed without any sign of payment. "Clearly in the very short term uncertainty has risen over the Omicron virus... but overall at this stage we do not believe it will derail the macro picture in the medium-term," said Jeremy Gatto, multi-asset portfolio manager at Unigestion. Treasury yields were little changed after rising across the curve Tuesday. The VIX spiked first on the FT news, then dropped back into the red, while the dollar was flat and crude rose after turning red. Besides macro, micro was also in play and here are some other notable premarket movers Apple (AAPL US) ticks 1% higher in premarket trading following a Nikkei report that the tech giant told suppliers to speed up iPhone output for Nov.-Jan, citing people it didn’t identify. Amazon.com (AMZN US) shares in focus after an Amazon Web Services outage is wreaking havoc on the e-commerce giant’s delivery operation Stitch Fix (SFIX US) tumbles 25% in U.S. premarket trading after a 2Q forecast miss that analysts called “surprising,” while customer additions also disappointed Pfizer (PFE US) shares drop 2% in U.S. premarket trading after an early study showed that the company’s vaccine provides less immunity to the omicron variant Dare Bioscience (DARE US) soars 41% in premarket trading after Xaciato gets FDA approval for treating bacterial vaginosis EPAM Systems (EPAM US) soars 8% in premarket after S&P Dow Jones Indices said co. will replace Kansas City Southern in the S&P 500 effective prior to the opening of trading on Dec. 14 Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT US) upgraded to buy from hold and target boosted to Street-high $32 from $29 at Deutsche Bank with the company seen as a major beneficiary from the shift to electric vehicles. Shares up 4.3% in premarket trading NXP Semiconductor (NXPI US) shares slide 2.2% in U.S. premarket trading after the chipmaker got a new sell rating at UBS Dave & Buster’s (PLAY US) gained 3.5% postmarket after the dining and entertainment company reported EPS that beat the average analyst estimate and authorized a $100 million share buyback program "Every day that passes without a wave of severe cases driven by Omicron is offering more hope that this won't be the curveball to throw the recovery off course," wrote Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid in a note to clients. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index initially drifted both higher and lower then bounced 0.3% on the favorable Pfizer and BioNTech news one day after posting its bigger surge in a year. European benchmark index earlier rose as much as 2%, dropped 2.1%. Health care sub-index leads gains, rising 1.2%, followed by travel stocks. The Stoxx 600 closed 2.5% higher on Tuesday, biggest gain since November 2020 Earlier in the session, Asia stocks also rose for a second day as concerns about the omicron variant and China’s economic slowdown eased. The MSCI AsiaPacific Index climbed as much as 0.9% after capping its biggest one-day gain in more than three months on Tuesday. Technology and health-care shares provided the biggest boosts. Benchmarks in New Zealand and India -- where the central bank held rates at a record low -- were among the day’s best performers. “The biggest point appealing to investors is that the Omicron variant doesn’t seem to be too fatal,” which is encouraging to those who had been going short to close out their positions, said Tomoichiro Kubota, a senior market analyst at Matsui Securities in Tokyo. “Worry that the Chinese economy will lose its growth momentum has subsided quite a bit.” Thus far, Omicron cases haven’t overwhelmed hospitals while vaccine developments indicate some promise in dealing with the variant. While vaccines like the one made by Pfizer and BioNTech SE may be less powerful against the new strain, protection can be fortified with boosters. The two-day rally in the Asian stock benchmark marks a sharp turnaround following weeks of declines since mid-November. Stocks in China also climbed for a second day. The nation’s central bank said Monday it will cut the amount of cash most banks must keep in reserve from Dec. 15, providing a liquidity boost and helping restore investor confidence In FX, news on the Omicron variant rippled through G-10 currencies after a report the Pfizer vaccine could neutralize the Omicron variant boosted risk appetite. The pound underperformed other Group-of-10 peers, extending declines after reports that the U.K. government is poised to introduce new Covid-19 restrictions.  A gauge of the dollar’s strength fluctuated as Treasuries pare gains and stocks rally after a report that said Pfizer and BioNTech claim three vaccine doses neutralize the omicron variant. EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.1277; USD/NOK falls as much as 0.8% to 8.9459, lowest since Nov. 25 Sterling fell against the euro and the dollar, as traders pare bets on the path of Bank of England rate hikes following reports that the U.K. could introduce fresh Covid-19 restrictions such as working from home and vaccine passports for large venues. Money markets pare rate hike bets, with just six basis points of interest rate hikes priced in for the BOE meeting next week. GBP/USD falls as much as 0.6% to 1.3163, testing the key level of 1.3165, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of gains since March 2020. EUR/GBP gains as much as 0.7% to 0.85695, the highest since Nov. 11. “The market will probably see this as more U.K. specific and therefore an issue for the pound at least in the short term,” said Stuart Bennett, FX strategist at Santander. In rates, Treasuries were mixed with markets reacting in a risk-on manner to the Dow Jones report that Pfizer and BioNTech claim three vaccine doses neutralize the omicron variant. Yields remain richer by less than 1bp across long-end of the curve while front-end trades cheaper on the day, flattening curve spreads. Session’s focal points include $36b 10-year note reopening at 1pm ET, following Tuesday’s strong 3-year note auction. Treasury 10-year yields around 1.475%, near flat on the day; gilts outperform slightly after Financial Times report that further Covid restrictions will be announced imminently to curb the variant’s spread. U.S. 2-year yields were cheaper by 1bp on the day, rose to new 2021 high following Pfizer vaccine report; 2s10s spread erased a flattening move In commodities, crude futures turned red, WTI falling 0.8%, popping back below $72. Spot gold holds Asia’s modest gains, adding $8 to trade near $1,792/oz. Looking at the day ahead, and Olaf Scholz is expected to become German Chancellor in a Bundestag vote today. From central banks, the Bank of Canada will be deciding on rates, and we’ll also hear from ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Schnabel. Finally, data releases include the JOLTS job openings from the US for October. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,693.75 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 480.55 MXAP up 0.7% to 194.84 MXAPJ up 0.6% to 632.78 Nikkei up 1.4% to 28,860.62 Topix up 0.6% to 2,002.24 Hang Seng Index little changed at 23,996.87 Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,637.57 Sensex up 1.8% to 58,654.25 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.3% to 7,405.45 Kospi up 0.3% to 3,001.80 Brent Futures down 0.5% to $75.04/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,790.33 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.17% to 96.20 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.38% Euro up 0.2% to $1.1286 Brent Futures down 0.5% to $75.04/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The omicron variant of Covid-19 must inflict significant damage on the euro-area economy for European Central Bank Governing Council member Martins Kazaks to back additional stimulus “The current phase of higher inflation could last longer than expected only some months ago,” ECB vice president Luis de Guindos says at event The earliest studies on omicron are in and the glimpse they’re providing is cautiously optimistic: while vaccines like the one made by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE may be less powerful against the new variant, protection can be fortified with boosters U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to announce new Covid-19 restrictions in England, known as “Plan B,” to stop the spread of the Omicron variant, the Financial Times reported, citing three senior Whitehall officials familiar with the matter. French economic activity will continue to rise in December, despite another wave of the Covid-19 pandemic and fresh uncertainty over the omicron variant, according the Bank of France The Kingdom of Denmark will sell a sovereign green bond for the first time next month to help the Nordic nation meet one of the world’s most ambitious climate targets Tom Hayes, the former UBS Group AG and Citigroup Inc. trader who became the face of the sprawling Libor scandal, has lost his bid to appeal his U.K. criminal conviction Poland is poised for a hefty increase in interest rates after a spike in inflation to a two- decade high convinced central bankers that spiraling price growth isn’t transitory. Of 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, 20 expect a 50 basis-point hike to 1.75% today and 10 see the rate rising to 2%. The other two expect a 25 basis-point increase Australia is weighing plans for a central bank-issued digital currency alongside the regulation of the crypto market as it seeks to overhaul how the nation’s consumers and businesses pay for goods and services Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya dropped a strong hint that big firms are in less need of funding support, a comment that will likely fuel speculation the BOJ will scale back its pandemic buying of corporate bonds and commercial paper A detailed summary of global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded positively as the region took impetus from the global risk momentum following the tech-led rally in the US, where Apple shares rose to a record high and amid increased optimism that Omicron could be less dangerous than prior variants. This was after early hospitalisation data from South Africa showed the new variant could result in less severe COVID and NIH's Fauci also suggested that Omicron was 'almost certainly' not more severe than Delta, although there were some slight headwinds in late Wall Street trade after a small study pointed to reduced vaccine efficacy against the new variant. The ASX 200 (+1.3%) was underpinned in which tech led the broad gains across sectors as it found inspiration from the outperformance of big tech stateside, and with energy bolstered by the recent rebound in underlying oil prices. The Nikkei 225 (+1.4%) conformed to the upbeat mood although further advances were capped after USD/JPY eased off the prior day’s highs and following a wider-than-expected contraction to the economy with the final annualised Q3 GDP at -3.6% vs exp. -3.1%. The Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.2%) were less decisive and initially lagged behind their peers as sentiment was mired by default concerns due to the failure by Evergrande to pay bondholders in the lapsed 30-day grace period on two USD-denominated bond payments and with Kaisa Group in a trading halt after missing the deadline for USD 400mln in offshore debt which didn’t bode well for its affiliates. Furthermore, China Aoyuan Property Group received over USD 650mln in repayment demands and warned it may not be able to meet debt obligations, while a subdued Hong Kong debut for Weibo shares which declined around 6% from the offer price added to the glum mood for Hong Kong’s blue-chip tech stocks, as did reports that China is to tighten rules for tech companies seeking foreign funding. Finally, 10yr JGBs languished after spillover selling from T-notes and due to the heightened global risk appetite, but with downside stemmed by support at the key psychological 152.00 level and amid the presence of the BoJ in the market today for over JPY 1.0tln of JGBs. Top Asian News China Clean Car Sales Spike as Consumers Embrace Electric Gold Edges Higher as Traders Weigh Vaccine Efficacy, Geopolitics Paint Maker Avia Avian Falls in Debut After $763 Million IPO Tokyo Prepares to Introduce Same-Sex Partnerships Next Year Equities in Europe shifted to a lower configuration after a mixed open (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%; Stoxx 600 -0.1%) as sentiment was dented by rumours of tightening COVID measures in the UK. Markets have been awaiting the next catalyst to latch onto for direction amidst a lack of fresh fundamentals. US equity futures have also been dented but to a lesser extent, with the YM (-0.1%) and ES (Unch) straddling behind the NQ (+0.2%) and RTY (+0.2%). Sources in recent trade suggested an 85% chance of the UK implementing COVID Plan B, according to Times' Dunn; reports indicate such restrictions could be implemented on Thursday, with the potential for an announcement today. In terms of the timings, the UK cabinet is penciled in for 15:45GMT and presser for 17:30GMT on Plan B, according to BBC's Goodall. Note, this will not be a formal lockdown but more so work-from-home guidance, vaccine passports for nightlife and numerical restrictions on indoor/outdoor gatherings. APAC closed in the green across the board following the tech-led rally in the US. The upside overnight was attributed to a continuation of market optimism after early hospitalisation data from South Africa showed the new variant could result in less severe COVID, albeit after a small study pointed to reduced vaccine efficacy against the new variant. Participants will be closely watching any updates from the vaccine-makers, with the BioNTech CEO stating the drugmaker has data coming Wednesday or Thursday related to the new COVID-19 variant, thus markets will be eyeing a potential update this week ahead of the Pfizer investor call next Friday. Back to European, the UK’s FTSE 100 (Unch) and the Swiss SMI (+0.8%) are largely buoyed by their defensive stocks, with sectors seeing a defensive formation, albeit to a slightly lesser extent vs the open. Healthcare retains its top spot closely followed by Food & Beverages, although Personal & Household Goods and Telecoms have moved down the ranks. On the flip side, Retail, Banks and Travel & Leisure trade at the bottom of the bunch, whilst Tech nursed some earlier losses after opening as the lagging sector. In terms of individual movers, Nestle (+1.8%) is bolstered after announcing a CHF 20bln share repurchase programme alongside a stake reduction in L'Oreal (+1.0%) to 20.1% from 23.3% - worth some EUR 9bln. L’Oreal has shrugged off the stake sale and conforms to the firm sectoral performance across the Personal & Household Goods. Meanwhile, chip names are under pressure after Nikkei sources reported that Apple (+0.8% pre-market) was forced to scale back the total output target for 2021, with iPhone and iPad assembly halted for several days due to supply chain constraints and restrictions on the use of power in China, multiple sources told Nikkei. STMicroelectronics (-1.7%) and Infineon (-5.0%) are among the losers, with the latter also weighed on by a broker downgrade at JPM. Top European News ECB’s Kazaks Sets High Bar for Omicron-Driven Extra Stimulus Biden Is Left Guessing Over Putin’s Ultimate Aim in Ukraine Byju’s Buys Austria’s GeoGebra to Bolster Online Math Courses Scholz Elected by Parliament to Take Charge as German Chancellor In FX, the Dollar index continues to hold above 96.000, but bounces have become less pronounced and the range so far today is distinctly narrower (96.285-130) in fitting with the generally restrained trade in pairings within the basket and beyond, bar a few exceptions. Price action suggests a relatively muted midweek session unless a major game-changer arrives and Wednesday’s agenda does not bode that well in terms of catalysts aside from JOLTS and the BoC policy meeting before the second leg of this week’s refunding in the form of Usd 36 bn 10 year notes. AUD/EUR - Notwithstanding the largely contained currency moves noted above, the Aussie is maintaining bullish momentum on specific factors including strength in iron ore prices and encouraging Chinese data plus PBoC easing that should have a positive knock-on effect for one of its main trading partners even though diplomatic relations between the two nations are increasingly strained. Aud/Usd has also cleared a couple of technical hurdles on the way up to circa 0.7143 and Aud/Nzd is firmer on the 1.0500 handle ahead of the RBA’s latest chart pack release and a speech by Governor Lowe. Elsewhere, the Euro has regained composure after its sub-1.1250 tumble on Tuesday vs the Buck and dip through 0.8500 against the Pound, but still faces psychological resistance at 1.1300 and the 21 DMA that comes in at 1.1317 today, while Eur/Gbp needs to breach the 100 DMA (0.8513) convincingly or close above to confirm a change in direction for the cross from a chart perspective. CHF/CAD/JPY/GBP/NZD - All sitting tight in relation to their US counterpart, with the Franc paring some declines between 0.9255-30 parameters and the Loonie straddling 1.2650 in the run up to the aforementioned BoC that is widely seen as a non-event given no new MPR or press conference, not to mention the actual changes in QE and rate guidance last time. Nevertheless, implied volatility is quite high via a 63 pip breakeven for Usd/Cad. Meanwhile, Sterling lost grip of the 1.3200 handle amidst swirling speculation about the UK reverting to plan B and more Tory MPs calling for PM Johnson to resign, the Yen is rotating around 113.50 eyeing broad risk sentiment and US Treasury yields in context of spreads to JGBs, and the Kiwi is lagging after touching 0.6800 awaiting independent impetus from NZ manufacturing sales for Q3. SCANDI/EM - The Nok extended its advantage/outperformance against the Sek as Brent rebounded towards Usd 76/brl in early trade and Riksbank’s Jansson retained reservations about flagging a repo rate hike at the end of the forecast horizon, while the Mxn and Rub also initially derived some support from oil with the latter also taking on board latest hawkish talk from the CBR. However, the Cny and Cnh are outpacing their rivals again with some assistance from a firmer PBoC midpoint fix to hit multi-year peaks vs the Usd and probe 6.3500 ahead of option expiry interest at 6.3000 and a Fib retracement at 6.2946, in stark contrast to the Try that is unwinding recent recovery gains with no help from the latest blast from Turkish President Erdogan - see 10.00GMT post in the Headline Feed for more. Conversely, the Czk has taken heed of CNB’s Holub underscoring tightening signals and expectations for the next rate convene and the Pln and Brl are anticipating hikes from the NBP and BCB. In commodities, crude futures have been hit on the prospect of imminent COVID-related measures in the UK, albeit the measures do not involve lockdowns. Brent and WTI front month futures slipped from European highs to breach APAC lows. The former dipped below USD 74.50/bbl from a USD 76.00/bbl European peak while its WTI counterpart tested USD 71.00/bbl from USD 72.50/bbl at best. Overnight the benchmarks traded on either side the USD 75/bbl mark and just under USD 72/bbl after the weekly Private Inventories printed a larger-than-expected draw (-3.6mln vs exp. -3.1mln), albeit the internals were less bullish. Yesterday also saw the release of the EIA STEO, cut its 2021 world oil demand growth forecast by an insignificant 10k BPD but raised the 2022 metric by 200k BPD – with the IEA and OPEC monthly reports poised to be released next week. On the vaccine front, a small preliminary study of 12 people showed a 40x reduction in neutralization capacity of the Pfizer vaccine against Omicron, but early hospitalisation data from South Africa showed the new variant could result in less severe COVID. BioNTech CEO said they have data coming in on Wednesday or Thursday related to the new Omicron variant. The geopolitical space is also worth keeping on the radar, with US President Biden yesterday warning Russian President Putin that gas exports via Nord Stream 2 will be targeted and more troops will be deployed if he orders an invasion of Ukraine. Further, reports suggested, an Indian army helicopter crashed in Tamil Nadu, with Chief of Defence staff reportedly on board, according to Sputnik. Note, Tamil Nadu is located towards the south of the country and away from conflict zones. Elsewhere spot gold was supported by the overnight pullback in the Dollar, but the recent risk aversion took the yellow metal above the 100 DMA around USD 1,790/oz, with nearby upside levels including the 200 DMA (1,792/oz) and the 50 DMA (1,794/oz). Copper prices meanwhile consolidated within a tight range, with LME copper holding onto a USD 9,500/t handle (just about). Dalian iron ore extended on gains in a continuation of the upside seen in recent trade. US Event Calendar 7am: Dec. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -7.2% 10am: Oct. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 10.5m, prior 10.4m DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A reminder that we are currently conducting our special 2022 survey. We ask about rates, equities, bond yields and the path of covid in 2022, amongst other things, and also return to a festive question we asked in 2019, namely your favourite ever Christmas songs. The link is here and it’ll be open until tomorrow. All help filling in very much appreciated. My optimism for life has been shattered this morning. Not from the markets or the virus but just as I woke this morning England cricketers finally surrendered and collapsed in a heap on the first day of the Ashes - one the oldest international rivalries in sport. It was all I could do not to turn round and go back to bed. However out of duty I’m soldering on. After the twins nativity play went without incident yesterday, this morning it’s Maisie’s turn. Given she’s in a wheelchair at the moment she can’t get on stage so they’ve given her a solo singing spot at the start. I’m going so I can bring a bucket for all my wife’s tears as she sings!! If I shed a tear I’ll pretend it’s because of the cricket. The global market rebound continued to gather strength yesterday as investors became increasingly optimistic that the Omicron variant wouldn’t prove as bad as initially feared. To be honest, it was more the absence of bad news rather than any concrete good news helping to drive sentiment. Late in the US session we did see some headlines suggesting that the Pfizer vaccine may provide some defence against Omicron but also that the new variant does evade some of the immunity produced by this vaccine. This report of the small study (12 people!!) from South Africa lacked substance but you could take positives and negatives from it. More information is clearly needed. For the markets though, every day that passes without a wave of severe cases driven by Omicron is offering more hope that this won’t be the curveball to throw the recovery off course. Indeed, to get a sense of the scale of the market rebound, both the S&P 500 and the STOXX 600 in Europe have now clocked in their strongest 2-day performances of 2021 so far, with the indices up by +3.27% and +3.76% respectively since the start of the week. Meanwhile, the VIX fell below 25 for the first time in a week. On the day, the S&P 500 (+2.07%) put in its strongest daily performance since March, whilst the STOXX 600 (+2.45%) saw its strongest daily performance since the news that the Pfizer vaccine was successful in trials back in November 2020. Once again the gains were incredibly broad-based, albeit with cyclical sectors leading the way. The Nasdaq (+3.03%) outperformed the S&P 500 for the first time in a week as tech shares led the rally. Small cap stocks also had a strong day, with the Russell 2000 up +2.28%, on the back of Omicron optimism. This recovery in risk assets was also seen in the bounceback in oil prices, with Brent crude (+3.23%) and WTI (+3.68%) now both up by more than $5.5/bbl since the start of the week, which puts them well on the way to ending a run of 6 consecutive weekly declines. For further evidence of this increased optimism, we can also look at the way that investors have been dialling back up their estimates of future rate hikes from the Fed, with yesterday seeing another push in this direction. Before the Omicron news hit, Fed fund futures were fully pricing in an initial hike by the June meeting, but by the close on the Monday after Thanksgiving they’d moved down those odds to just 61% in June, with an initial hike not fully priced until September. Fast forward just over a week however, and we’re now not only back to pricing in a June hike, but the odds of a May hike are standing at +78.8%, which is actually higher than the +66.1% chance priced before the Omicron news hit. A reminder that we’re just a week away now from the Fed’s next decision, where it’s hotly anticipated they could accelerate the pace at which they’ll taper their asset purchases. With investors bringing forward their bets on monetary tightening, front-end US Treasury yields were hitting post-pandemic highs yesterday, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +5.8bps to 0.69%, a level we haven’t seen since March 2020. Longer-dated yield increases weren’t as large, with the 10yr yield up +3.9bps to 1.47%, and the 5s30s curve flattened another -1.8bps to 54.4bps, just above the post-pandemic low of 53.7bps. Over in Europe there was similarly a rise in most countries’ bond yields, with those on 10yr bunds (+1.4bps), OATs (+1.0bps) and BTPs (+4.4bps) all moving higher, though incidentally, the 5s30s curve in Germany was also down -2.2bps to its own post-pandemic low of 50.0bps. One pretty big news story that markets have been relatively unperturbed by so far is the rising tensions between the US and Russia over Ukraine. Yesterday saw a video call between US President Biden and Russian President Putin. The US readout from the call did not offer much in the way of concrete details, but if you’re looking for any optimistic news, it said that both sides tasked their teams with following up. Setting the background for the call, there were reports immediately beforehand that the US was considering evacuating their citizens and posturing to stop Nord Stream 2 if Russia invaded Ukraine. The Ruble appreciated +0.42% against the dollar, and is now only slightly weaker versus the dollar on the week. Overnight in Asia stocks are trading mostly higher led by the Nikkei (+1.49%), CSI (+1.11%), Shanghai Composite (+0.86%) and the KOSPI (+0.78%) as markets respond positively to the Pfizer study mentioned at the top. The Hang Seng (-0.12%) is lagging though. In Japan, the final Q3 GDP contracted -3.6% quarter on quarter annualised against consensus expectations of -3.1% on lower consumer spending than initially estimated. In India, the RBI left the key policy rate unchanged for the ninth consecutive meeting today while underscoring increasing headwinds from the Omicron variant. Futures markets indicate a positive start in the US and Europe with S&P 500 (+0.41%) and DAX (+0.12%) futures trading in the green. Back on the pandemic, despite the relative benign news on Omicron, rising global case counts mean that the direction of travel is still towards tougher restrictions across a range of countries. In fact here in the UK, we saw the 7-day average of reported cases move above 48,000 for the first time since January. In terms of fresh restrictions, yesterday saw Canada announce that they’d be extending their vaccine mandate, which will now require employees in all federally regulated workplaces to be vaccinated, including road transportation, telecommunications and banking. In Sweden, the government is preparing a bill that would see Covid passes introduced for gyms and restaurants, while Poland put further measures in place, including remote schooling from December 20 until January 9, while vaccines would become mandatory for health workers, teachers and uniformed services from March 1. One move to ease restrictions came in Austria, where it was confirmed shops would be reopening on Monday, albeit only for those vaccinated, while restaurants and hotels would reopen the following week. If you see our daily charts you’ll see that cases in Austria have dropped sharply since the peaks a couple of weeks ago, albeit still high internationally. In DC, Congressional leaders apparently agreed to a deal that would ultimately lead to the debt ceiling being increased, after some procedural chicanery. Senate Majority Leader McConnell voiced support for the measure, which is a good sign for its ultimate prospects of passing, but it still needs at least 10 Republican votes in the Senate to pass. McConnell indicated the votes would be there when the Senate ultimately takes it up, which is reportedly set to happen this week. The House passed the measure last night. Yields on Treasury bills maturing in December fell following the headlines. Looking ahead, today will mark the end of an era in Germany, as Olaf Scholz is set to become Chancellor in a Bundestag vote later on, marking an end to Chancellor Merkel’s 16-year tenure. That vote will simply be a formality given the three parties of the incoming coalition (the centre-left SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP) have a comfortable majority between them, and the new cabinet will feature 7 SPD ministers, 5 Green ministers, and 4 from the FDP. Among the positions will include Green co-leader Robert Habeck as Vice Chancellor, Green co-leader Annalena Baerbock as foreign minister, and FDP leader Christian Lindner as finance minister. Running through yesterday’s data, the US trade deficit narrowed to $67.1bn in October (vs. $66.8bn expected), marking its smallest level since April. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, the latest Q3 growth estimate was left unchanged at +2.2%, but both Q1 and Q2’s growth was revised up a tenth. Over in Germany, industrial production grew by a stronger-than-expected +2.8% in October (vs. +1.0% expected), with the previous month’s contraction also revised to show a smaller -0.5% decline. In addition, the expectations component of the December ZEW survey fell by less than expected to 29.9 (vs. 25.4 expected), but the current situation measure fell to a 6-month low of -7.4 (vs. 5.7 expected). To the day ahead now, and Olaf Scholz is expected to become German Chancellor in a Bundestag vote today. From central banks, the Bank of Canada will be deciding on rates, and we’ll also hear from ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Schnabel. Finally, data releases include the JOLTS job openings from the US for October. Tyler Durden Wed, 12/08/2021 - 07:58.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 8th, 2021

Stocks Soar On Optimism Omicron Is A Dud As Traders Focus On Growing China Stimulus

Stocks Soar On Optimism Omicron Is A Dud As Traders Focus On Growing China Stimulus U.S. index futures rallied, led by gains for Nasdaq 100 contracts, amid waning omicron worries and a booster shot of Chinese stimulus lifted world stock markets and oil on Tuesday and left traders offloading safe-haven currencies and bonds for the second day in a row. Emini S&P futures were up 61 point to 4,650.75 or about 120 points higher then where Gartman said "stocks are headed lower" some 24 hours ago. Nasdaq futures were up 1.8% and Dow futures rose 1% in premarket trading. In fact, futures are now just 50 points away from where they were below the Black Friday Omicron panic plunge. The FTSEurofirst 300 index was on track for its first back-to-back run of plus 1% gains since February while Asia saw record bounces from some of China's biggest firms such as Alibaba which soared by the most since its 2019 listing in Hong Kong, leading a rebound in Chinese tech stocks, as bargain hunters piled in amid improved sentiment following Beijing’s move to bolster the economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.7% while Japan’s Topix index closed 2.2% higher. The VIX dropped for a second day, sliding below 24, but remained above this year’s average. The risk-on mood also helped the dollar climb against safe haven currencies such as the Japanese yen, , which had lost 0.6% overnight, as the confidence-sensitive Australian dollar also found buyers. Safe-haven government bonds went the other way with yields  up 2.5% on Germany's benchmark 10-year Bund after falling to a three-month low on Monday. Reports in South Africa said Omicron cases there had only shown mild symptoms and the top U.S. infectious disease official, Anthony Fauci, told CNN "it does not look like there's a great degree of severity" so far. "Good news relating to the severity of Omicron should be taken with a pinch of salt. Faster transmission could offset the benefits of milder symptoms," researchers at ING said in a note. "More broadly, it is still early days, even if markets are starting to display Omicron fatigue." "While epidemiologists have rightly warned against premature conclusions on Omicron, markets arguably surmised that last week's brutal sell-off ought to have been milder," Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, said in a note. "After all, early assessments of Omicron cases have been declared mild, spurring half-full relief." There are signs of “a fragile improvement in market mood,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. Still, “no headline addresses the major concern of the week: the rising U.S. inflation, which is a big threat to the investor mood, as the U.S. CPI data is due Friday, and the expectation is an advance to a strong 6.7%,” Ozkardeskaya wrote in a report. “We could see wild mood swings into the second half of the week.” The gains also came after China's central bank on Monday injected its second shot of stimulus since July by cutting the RRR - or the amount of cash that banks must hold in reserve. Then on Tuesday, the PBOC said that the Interest rate for relending to support rural sector and smaller firms will be cut by 0.25 percentage point, effective from today, with 3-mo, 6-mo and 1-yr relending rates will be cut to 1.7%1.9% and 2%. After pretending it would let the economy falter for months, Beijing is finally firmly in pro-growth mode with the Politburo stating that stability is the top priority ahead of next year’s Communist Party congress. Premier Li Keqiang also said China has room for a variety of monetary policy tools after yesterday’s reserve ratio cut. As a result, the beaten down financial and property stocks were the biggest winners amid the change in tone from policy makers. In Hong Kong, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. soared by the most since its 2019 listing. Global markets are also getting a lift from the easing policy pivot in world’s second-largest economy which we first flagged more than a weeks ago. * * * In the premarket, Intel shares rose 7.7% in premarket trading after the chipmaker confirmed a WSJ report that it plans to float a minority stake in its Mobileye self-driving car business by the middle of next year. Alibaba jumped as much as 5.4% in U.S. premarket trading Tuesday, adding to a 10% rally on Monday as with Chinese tech stocks rebound. Alibaba’s climb in the U.S. comes after its shares posted their biggest gain since June 2017 on Monday. Cruise operators and airline stocks are trading higher for a second session as investors assess the severity of the omicron virus variant. American Airlines was among the notable outperformers after naming President Robert Isom to replace retiring CEO Doug Parker. AAL rose 3% in premarket trading, while UAL climbs 2.6% and JBLU jumps 2.7%; other gainers include: ALK +2.6%, DAL+2.3%, LUV +2.4%, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise added 3.3%, while Carnival increased 3.1% in premarket trading. Casino operators also rebounded, led by Las Vegas Sands +3.5%, Wynn Resorts +2.7%, MGM Resorts +2.3% after Hong Kong’s Carrie Lam said the city will prioritize quarantine-free travel for business people when its border with mainland China reopens. In Europe every industry sector rose, led by tech and mining companies, to push the Stoxx 600 Index to a 2% gain led by technology, mining and consumer companies. AstraZeneca was an outliker, falling 2% in London after the company agreed to pay Ionis Pharmaceuticals as much as $3.6 billion to gain rights to a promising medicine for a rare disease. European e-commerce stocks that benefited from increased demand during pandemic-related lockdowns rose in Europe on Tuesday, with many outperforming the benchmark Stoxx 600’s biggest gain since March. Among the names were Allegro +6.3%, Moonpig +5.3%, Global Fashion Group +5.3%, Asos +5.1%, Zalando +4.6%, THG +3.7%, Boozt +3.3%, Ocado +2.4%, Boohoo +1.9%. “As concerns grow over rising case numbers, we expect some people will prefer to shop online again to limit their visits to stores,” Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, says in emailed comments. Asian equities advanced, on track for their best day in more than three months, following China’s latest moves to bolster growth in the world’s second-largest economy.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.8%, poised for its biggest gain since Aug. 24. Consumer-discretionary firms contributed most to the market’s climb, led by Alibaba as bargain hunters snapped up recently rattled Chinese tech stocks. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and Japan led broad gains around the region.  China’s central bank said it will cut the amount of cash most banks must keep in reserve from Dec. 15, providing a liquidity boost. Meanwhile the Communist Party’s Politburo signaled an easing of curbs on the battered real-estate sector. “Anxiety over the Chinese economy is abating thanks to the cut in the banks’ reserve ratio and a partial easing of real-estate regulations,” said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist at T&D Asset Management Co. Plus, “an overall risk-on mood is being created as people turn increasingly optimistic about any impact from the omicron, leading to higher U.S. equities and long-term yields.”  Financials and industrials also boosted the region’s key equity gauge Tuesday as investors looked toward reopening prospects. The day’s rebound marks a sharp turnaround following weeks of declines since mid-November. U.S. equities overnight rebounded from Friday’s selloff after reports that cases of the omicron variant have been relatively mild. Japanese equities rose by the most in over a month, as investors were cheered by reports of Chinese policy makers moving to support the nation’s economy and that global omicron virus cases have been relatively mild. Electronics makers and telecoms were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which gained 2.2%, the most since Nov. 1. SoftBank Group and Tokyo Electron were the largest contributors to a 1.9% rise in the Nikkei 225. The yen extended its loss against the dollar after weakening 0.6% overnight. U.S. stocks climbed Monday after news from South Africa that showed hospitals haven’t been overwhelmed by the latest wave of Covid cases. Meanwhile, China President Xi Jinping oversaw a meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo on Monday that concluded with a signal of an easing in curbs on real estate. “Cyclical stocks, China-linked names and automakers that had been sold on a stronger yen will likely be bought up following China’s change in policy stance,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, a strategist at Nomura Asset Management in Tokyo. “This will alleviate worry over a slowdown in the Chinese economy.” India’s benchmark equity index bounced back from a three-month low on optimism that the global economic recovery may be able to withstand risks associated with the omicron virus variant.  The S&P BSE Sensex climbed 1.6% to 57,633.65, in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index also advanced by a similar magnitude. ICICI Bank Ltd. provided the biggest boost to both the gauges with a 3.5% gain. Out of the 30 shares in the Sensex, 29 rose and one fell. All 19 industry sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by a measure of metals companies. The uncertainty from the omicron variant, along with expectations of rapid tapering by the U.S. Federal Reserve have tested the risk appetite of investors in the previous two sessions in India. However, markets across Asia advanced Tuesday after China pledged measures to support slowing economic growth. “Indian markets mirrored the sharp buoyancy in global indices on the back of short-covering by market participants. The rally was backed by a sharp upsurge in banking and metal stocks, which had taken a severe hammering in recent sessions,” Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities Ltd. wrote in a note.  Australia’s central bank -- at its monetary policy meeting Tuesday -- left its key interest rate unchanged and said that while the strain is a source of uncertainty, it’s not expected to derail the recovery. Reserve Bank of India will announce its rate decision on Wednesday.  In FX, the Dollar Spot Index inched lower as commodity currencies led gains among Group-of-10 peers. The volatility skew for the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index shows bullish bets on the greenback over the one-month tenor stand near their lowest since August. This may change as soon as next week after Friday's CPI report. The euro reversed an Asia session gain to touch a December low of $1.1254 in early European hours. Bunds and Italian bonds slumped, led by the belly after ECB’s Holzmann yesterday said rate hikes are possible while still buying debt. Money markets continue to price the first 10bps rate hike in December 2022 but October pricing jumps to 7.5bps from 6bps on Monday. The pound was steady against the dollar, trailing other risk-sensitive currencies, with focus on next week’s Bank of England meeting and how officials will assess the threat of the omicron strain. The Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar advanced amid rising oil prices and before the Bank of Canada meeting Wednesday. Australian bond yields extended gains and the Aussie dollar advanced versus all of its G-10 peers as central bank optimism that omicron won’t disrupt the economic recovery underscored bets on sooner-than-expected rate hikes. Australia’s central bank left monetary settings unchanged, citing uncertainties from omicron, while highlighting positive signs in the labor market and broader economy. Finally, the yen fell a second day after easing concern over the coronavirus omicron variant In rates, Treasuries were narrowly mixed with the front-end lagging ahead of today's 3-year auction. Treasury 2-year yields were cheaper by 2.2bp on the day, flattening 2s10s spread by 1.8bp and unwinding portion of Monday’s steepening move; 10-year yields around 1.436%, slightly cheaper on the day. Bunds lag by 1.3bp after ECB’s Holzmann says rate hikes are possible while still buying debt -- BTP’s cheapen 2.5bp vs. Treasuries in 10-year sector. U.S. TSY auctions resume with $54b 3-year note sale at 1pm ET, before $36b 10- and $22b 30-year Wednesday and Thursday; the WI 3-year around 0.973% is above auction stops since Feb. 2020 and ~22bp cheaper than November’s sale, which tailed the WI by 1bp. In commodities, oil prices jumped another 2% to $74.60 a barrel, adding to a near 5% rebound the day before as concerns about the impact of Omicron on global fuel demand eased; WTI rose about 3% near $71.50. Copper prices also ticked higher while gold was steady at $1,778.5 per ounce on expectations U.S. consumer price data due later this week will show inflation quickening. European natural gas futures rose on talk of fresh Russian sanctions. Spot gold is choppy near $1,780/oz. Base metals are well bid given the broader risk-on tone: most of the complex rises over 1% with LME zinc outperforming.  Looking at today's calendar, we have trade balance data for October at 8:30 a.m, while the EIA short-term energy outlook is published at 12:00 p.m. The US sells $54 billion of 3-year notes at 1:00 p.m. Biden and Putin talk from 10:00 a.m. Jeffrey Gundlach hosts his Total Return webcast from 4:15 p.m. Autozone Inc. and Toll Brothers Inc. report results. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.3% to 4,650 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.7% to 476.71 MXAP up 1.7% to 193.18 MXAPJ up 1.7% to 627.71 Nikkei up 1.9% to 28,455.60 Topix up 2.2% to 1,989.85 Hang Seng Index up 2.7% to 23,983.66 Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,595.09 Sensex up 1.6% to 57,657.07 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 7,313.90 Kospi up 0.6% to 2,991.72 Brent Futures up 2.3% to $74.73/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,778.95 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.36 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.36% Euro down 0.2% to $1.1268 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The ECB said its supervision arm will focus its scrutiny in the coming three years on risks that lenders face from a potential spike in bad loans and their search for higher returns Hungary’s central bank is nowhere close to stopping a monetary tightening campaign that will make the country’s real interest rates the highest in central Europe, Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag said The U.S. and European allies are weighing sanctions targeting Russia’s biggest banks and the country’s ability to convert rubles for dollars and other foreign currencies should President Vladimir Putin invade Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter China’s exports and imports grew faster than expected in November, with both hitting records as external demand surged ahead of the year-end holidays and domestic production rebounded on an easing power crunch. Some China Evergrande Group bondholders have not received overdue coupon payments after the end of a month-long grace period, putting the world’s most indebted property developer on the brink of its first default on offshore notes U.K. house prices hit a record in November, with values over the past three months rising at their fastest pace for 15 years, according to mortgage lender Halifax A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly positive following the heightened risk appetite among global peers, including in the US, where the DJIA posted its best performance since March and all sectors in the S&P 500 finished positive. Omicron concerns abated throughout the session and resulted in notable outperformance across travel and leisure stocks, while the region also took its opportunity to digest the PBoC's recent RRR cut announcement and mostly better than expected Chinese trade data. The ASX 200 (+1.0%) was positive with broad gains across its sectors aside from utilities and with momentum helped after a lack of surprises at the RBA policy decision - which refrained from any policy tweaks. Nikkei 225 (+1.9%) outperformed and regained a firm footing above the 28k level as exporters benefitted from a weaker currency, and with the advances led by SoftBank which atoned for the recent declines in its portfolio companies. The Hang Seng (+2.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) were both initially lifted in early trade after the announcement of the PBoC’s RRR cut, which is said to likely calm markets amid increasing developer risks, although the mainland bourse then gave back its gains after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity in its daily open market operations. Furthermore, reports that the PBoC lowered its relending rate by 25bps for agricultural and small companies also failed to boost the mainland as this is viewed as a more targeted supportive measure. Finally, 10yr JGBs declined and re-approached the key psychological 152.00 level on spillover selling from USTs as stocks gained and Omicron fears abated. The results of the latest 30yr JGB auction were mixed with higher accepted prices and lower yield offset by a weaker b/c and wider tail in price. Top Asian News Asian Stocks Set for Best Day in 3 Months as China Tech Rebounds Alibaba Jumps Most Since H.K. Listing as China Tech Rebounds Malaysia Court Dismisses Najib’s Plea, SRC Verdict Due Wednesday LG Energy Seeks Up to 12.75t Won IPO, Biggest in Korea European stocks have conformed to the risk appetite seen across global peers (Euro Stoxx 50 +2.5%; Stoxx 600 +2.0%), which initially emanated from Wall Street, before seeping into APAC and reverberating in Europe. There is no clear catalyst behind the gains, although desks have been attributing the optimism to receding fears regarding the Omicron variant – with no recorded deaths thus far. That being said, some of the key tail risks to markets have not subsided, with liquidity also expected to be more anemic in the run-up to next week’s risk-packed docket before year end. Nonetheless, US equity futures are grinding higher with the NQ (+1.9%) in the lead, closely followed by the RTY (+1.7%), whilst the ES (+1.3%) and YM (+1.0%) see slightly less pronounced gains. Back in Europe, Euro-bourses see broad-based upside but the UK’s FTSE 100 (+1.1%) and the Swiss SMI (+0.7%) are capped by underperformance in the defensive sectors – with Healthcare and Food & Beverages towards the bottom of the bunch. Sectors are overall in the green with a clear and firm pro-cyclical bias. Tech leads the gains following its recent underperformance, with Basic Resources also among the winners as base metals post decent gains. In terms of individual movers GSK (+0.5%) remains supported after pre-clinical data demonstrate the potential for monoclonal antibody Sotrovimab to be effective against the latest variant, Omicron, plus all other variants of concern defined to date by the WHO. As a reminder, the co. last week said its COVID treatment Sotrovimab retains its activity against the Omicron variant. British American Tobacco (+2.1%) is firmer followed by a positive trading update alongside Babcock (+5.2%) and Ferguson (+4.0%). On the downside, AstraZeneca (-1.7%) resides towards the foot of the Stoxx 600 amid a downgrade at Jefferies, alongside the broader anti-defensive narrative. Looking at analysts’ commentary, Barclays suggests that the Fed is unlikely to over-deliver on the rate hikes that are already priced in, with the bank unphased by the recent Powell pivot and Omicron resurgence. Barclays maintains its positive view on 2022 equities and upgraded its European small caps to overweight on improving fundamentals but oversold performance, and downgraded Momentum to market-weight. Top European News U.K. House Prices Post Strongest Quarterly Increase Since 2006 Republicans’ Pecresse Ties With Le Pen in French Poll Ferguson 1Q U.S. Organic Revenue Beats Estimates EU Aims to Unveil Green Rules for Gas, Nuclear Projects Dec. 22 In FX, although the Buck remains bid on bullish US fundamentals and the index is finding plenty of underlying buying interest/support into 96.000, the overall market mood is constructive enough to help riskier currencies outperform, and shrug off another dovish RBA policy meeting in the case of the Aussie. Instead, Aud/Usd and Aud/Nzd are gaining more ground on the coattails of iron ore prices and favourable tradewinds, as Chinese imports surged beyond expectations and outpaced exports that also beat consensus to leave the surplus somewhat short of the mark. The headline pair reached 0.7101 before running into resistance and 1.2 bn option expiry interest at the 0.7100 strike, while the cross has breached 1.0450 convincingly to expose 1.0500 ahead of NZ Q3 manufacturing sales on Wednesday and following RBNZ Assistant Governor Hawkseby sticking to a considered line on further rate normalisation overnight. He also said the Kiwi is in a broad range of where it is expected to be and that a higher currency in the short-term will help us achieve objectives more quickly. Nzd/Usd is still rotating around 0.6750, while the Loonie is latching on to the latest leg up in WTI over Usd 71/brl to test offers protecting 1.2700 vs its US rival in advance of Canadian and US trade data, Ivey PMIs and tomorrow’s BoC, with the DXY fading following a fleeting breach of Monday’s peak within 96.447-168 confines, Note also, 1.1 bn option expiries reside between 1.2750-55 in Usd/Cad and could cap recovery rallies. Elsewhere, the Scandinavian Crowns continue to rebound from recent lows against the Euro, and Brent’s bounce to the brink of Usd 75/brl is helping the Nok probe 10.2000 rather than a somewhat mixed Norges Bank regional network survey, while the Sek is lagging circa 10.2400 amidst Riksbank concerns over the lack of liquidity and transparency in Sweden’s corporate bond market that needs to be addressed. CHF/GBP/EUR/JPY - The G10 laggards to varying degrees, with the Franc trying to pare losses from sub-0.9250 vs the Dollar and more successfully against the Euro from almost 1.0450 towards 1.0400, while the Pound is holding mostly above 1.3250 in Cable terms and Eur/Gbp is pivoting 0.8500 as the single currency remains under the psychological 1.1300 level vs the Greenback irrespective of supportive Eurozone macro impulses via better than forecast German industrial output and ZEW economic sentiment over bleak current conditions. Similarly, the Yen remains weak on risk and rate/yield dynamics and Usd/Jpy is now firmer within a loftier 113.40-74 range before a raft of Japanese releases including Q3 GDP revisions and October’s current account balance. EM - More easing in China, but resilience or even ongoing strength in the Cny and Cnh in wake of the PBoC shaving 25 bp off the relending rate for agricultural and small companies, according to sources in the Securities Times that also suggests in tune with the China Daily that an LPR cut may be in the offing. Conversely, weakness in the Rub awaiting the call between Putin and Biden and the Zar on the back of SA GDP missing already low-key expectations, but the Try is nursing some declines in what could be reasonably described as intervention fashion. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures are firmer on the session, buoyed by the risk appetite across the markets. From a fundamental standpoint, the benchmarks remain underpinned by the lack of progress in Iranian nuclear talks coupled with the OSP hike seen by Saudi Aramco over the weekend for Asia and US customers – typically a reflection of firmer demand. The morning also saw some reports suggesting Yemen Houthis fired several ballistic missiles and 25 armed drones on Saudi Arabia, including Aramco facilities in Jeddah, but details remain light. Aside from that, the morning’s newsflow has been on the quiet side, with the macro environment currently dictating price action. WTI Jan is back on a USD 71/bbl handle (vs low 69.50/bbl) while Brent Feb topped USD 75.00/bbl (vs low USD 73.20/bbl). In terms of bank forecasts, Citi sees a dramatic fall in energy prices from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022 averages – with Brent seen at USD 62/bbl (from USD 79/bbl) and WTI seen at USD 59/bbl (from USD 75/bbl). Over to metals, spot gold and silver move in tandem with the Buck featuring the former around USD 1,780/oz and caged below that cluster of DMAs which today sees the 50, 100 and 200 at USD 1,793/oz, USD 1,790/oz and USD 1,791/oz respectively. Elsewhere LME copper takes impetus from the broader risk appetite, with prices back north of USD 9,500/t and extending on gains, with the Chinese trade data also supportive for the base metal complex. Overnight, Dalian iron ore futures gained focus as prices were bolstered by the recent liquidity action taken by the PBoC coupled with more sanguine commentary surrounding the Chinese housing market, according to some analysts. US Event Calendar 8:30am: 3Q Unit Labor Costs, est. 8.3%, prior 8.3% 8:30am: 3Q Nonfarm Productivity, est. -4.9%, prior -5.0% 8:30am: Oct. Trade Balance, est. -$66.8b, prior -$80.9b 3pm: Oct. Consumer Credit, est. $25b, prior $29.9b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap It’s with much trepidation that I take an hour off work this morning to visit my 4-year old twins’ nativity play. They are by far the youngest in their Reception year and given they were premature, in reality there are technically older kids in the nursery year. As such my expectations were always well managed when the parts were being doled out that they wouldn’t be competing for the blockbuster roles such as Joseph! These expectations were met as they have been cast as “presents”. So I think they have to sit there with a bow around them and try to remember some of the words in the songs they have been given to sing. Success would be for them not to have a fight mid-performance as they do most evenings when I see them. Only when you have identical twins can you witness such love and hatred displayed within the space of a few seconds. Markets have been swinging between love and hate over the last 10 days with the former winning out yesterday as investors’ concerns eased around the Omicron variant. Obviously we’re still awaiting definitive data on a number of points, but more generally the suggestions that it could be less likely to cause severe disease has injected some optimism back into markets after the recent selloffs. As a result, we saw a decent bounceback among the major equity indices on both sides of the Atlantic, an advance for oil prices following 6 successive weekly declines, and investors even moved to marginally bring forward the likely timing of central bank rate hikes. We’ll start with equities, where risk appetite only increased as the day went on, with the S&P 500 (+1.17%) posting a broad-based advance that saw over 85% of the index’s members advancing. Europe also put in a strong performance, with the STOXX 600 up +1.3%, whilst many indices saw their biggest advances in months. That included the UK’s FTSE 100 (+1.5%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (+2.4%), and Italy’s FTSE MIB (+2.2%), which, outside of last Wednesday, were the best daily performances since July. European tech shares lagged the broader rally, with the STOXX Technology index down -0.33%, though US tech shares gained steam after the European close, with the Nasdaq up +0.93%, trailing the S&P by a more modest amount. Greater optimism about the new variant proved supportive for oil prices too, with Brent crude (+4.58%) and WTI (+4.87%) posting gains after a run of 6 consecutive weekly declines, having also been supported by Saudi Arabia’s move to raise oil prices to Asia and the US in January. Oil prices are up another 1% this morning. However, there was a big decline in US natural gas futures (-11.50%) yesterday, the worst daily performance since January 2019, as the mild weather outlook has served to dampen demand. Over in sovereign bond markets there was a fresh selloff in US Treasuries, and a steepening of the yield curve, as the optimism about Omicron led investors to bring forward their expectations of future rate hikes. Yields moved higher across the curve, with those on 10yr yields up +9.1bps to 1.43%, as both real yields and inflation breakevens moved higher on the day, whilst the 2s10s curve managed to steepen +4.7bps to 79.9bps. 10yr yields are up another +1.4bps this morning. Near-term, the first Fed rate hike is again fully priced by the June FOMC meeting. Over in Europe, yields were lower, with those on 10yr bunds (-0.1bps), OATs (-0.4bps) and BTPs (-3.8bps) all declining, though the greater risk appetite was reflected in the narrowing of peripheral spreads, with the gap between Italian and Spanish yields over bunds both tightening by the close. Overnight in Asia stocks are all trading up with the Nikkei (+2.09%), Hang Seng (+1.62%), CSI (+0.51%), KOSPI (+0.47%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.12%) all stronger. China’s RRR cut yesterday is certainly helping sentiment. On the data front, China's trade balance for November came in at $71.72 bn (consensus $83.60 bn and $84.54 bn previously), lower than expected as imports grew at +31.7% year-on-year against +21.5% consensus. Exports (+22%) were slightly higher than expected. Elsewhere the Reserve Bank of Australia held its benchmark interest rate unchanged while cautioning that price pressures remain subdued in Australia compared with other economies as the RBA expects it to reach 2.5% by 2023. Our economists put out a note suggesting that if you squint, the RBA commentary was slightly hawkish though. See more here if you’d like their review. Elsewhere futures are pointing to a positive start in the US and Europe with the S&P 500 (+0.34%) and DAX (+0.38%) contracts trading in the green. Looking ahead, one of the important events today will be the scheduled video call between US President Biden and Russian President Putin. The Biden administration, in concert with European allies, is reportedly weighing whether to bring economic tools to bear against Russia in response to the recent flare up on the Ukrainian border. Measures being considered included sanctions against President Putin’s inner circle, energy producers, and banks, as well as the more drastic option of denying Russian access to US-run international payments system, SWIFT. The Ruble depreciated -0.66% against the US dollar after having appreciated +0.50% in the morning before the headlines. In terms of other developments on the pandemic, the global case count has been moving higher for 7 consecutive weeks now, and we got fresh news of tougher restrictions in New York City yesterday. They’re set to place a vaccine mandate on private sector workers from December 27, whilst indoor dining and entertainment will be requiring those aged 12 and over to be fully vaccinated, and those aged 5-11 to have one dose. Here in the UK, over 50k confirmed cases were reported yesterday once again, and the average number of cases over the last week now stands up +9% on the week before. Turning to Germany, the main news yesterday was that the Greens became the final party of the incoming traffic-light coalition to approve the negotiated agreement, with 86% of members in favour. That follows similar moves by the SPD and the FDP, and today the parties are set to formally sign the deal, with Olaf Scholz set to become chancellor tomorrow in a Bundestag vote, which will also bring an end to Chancellor Merkel’s 16-year tenure. For a run down on what to expect from the new government, our research colleagues in Germany have put together a guide on the various policy areas (link here). Staying on Germany, data also showed yesterday that factory orders fell by a much larger-than-expected -6.9% in October (vs. -0.3% expected), with the decline driven by a -13.1% fall in foreign orders, contrary to domestic orders which actually expanded +3.4%. To the day ahead now, and data highlights include German industrial production for October and the ZEW survey for December, along with the US trade balance for October. Otherwise, US President Biden and Russian President Putin will be holding a video call. Tyler Durden Tue, 12/07/2021 - 07:59.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytDec 7th, 2021

Futures Trade Near All Time High As Traders Shrug At Inflation, Covid Concerns

Futures Trade Near All Time High As Traders Shrug At Inflation, Covid Concerns US equity futures and European markets started the Thanksgiving week on an upbeat note as investors set aside fear of surging inflation and focused on a pickup in M&A activity while China signaled possible easing measures. The euphoria which lifted S&P futures up some 0.5% overnight and just shy of all time highs ended abruptly and futures reversed after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the Covid situation in the country is worse than anything so far and tighter curbs are needed. At 730 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 95 points, or 0.26%. S&P 500 e-minis were up 12.25 points, or 0.26% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 58.75 points, or 0.357%. U.S. stocks trade near record levels, outpacing the rest of the world, as investors see few alternatives amid rising inflation and a persistent pandemic that undermines global recovery. Concerns about high valuations and the potential for the economy to run too hot on the back of loose monetary and fiscal policies have interrupted, but not stopped the rally. In other words, as Bloomberg puts it "bears are winning the argument, bulls are winning in the market" while Nasdaq futures hit another record high as demand for technology stocks remained strong. “Based on historical data, the Thanksgiving week is a strong week for U.S. equities,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note. “Black Friday sales will be closely watched. The good news is, people still have money to spend, even though they get less goods and services in exchange of what’s spent.” In premarket moves, heavyweights, including most FAANG majors, rose in premarket trade. Vonage Holdings Corp. jumped 26% in premarket trading after Ericsson agreed to buy it. Telecom Italia SpA jumped as much as 30% in Europe after KKR offered to buy it for $12 billion. Energy stocks recovered slightly from last week's losses, although anticipation of several economic readings this week kept gains in check. Bank stocks rose in premarket trading as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed for the first time in three sessions to about 1.58%. S&P 500 futures gain as much as 0.5% on Monday morning. Tesla gained 2.8% after Chief Executive Elon Musk tweeted that Model S Plaid will "probably" be coming to China around March. Activision Blizzard (ATVI.O) slipped 1.1% after a media report that the video game publisher's top boss, Bobby Kotick, would consider leaving if he cannot quickly fix culture problems. Travel and energy stocks, which were among the worst performers last week, also marked small gains before the open. Here is a list of the other notable premarket movers: Astra Space (ASTR US) shares surge 33% in premarket trading after the company said its rocket reached orbit. Aurora Innovation (AUR US) falls 8% in premarket, after soaring 71% last week amid a surge in popularity for self-driving technology companies among retail traders. Chinese electric-carmaker Xpeng (XPEV US) rises as much as 2.8% premarket after co. unveils a large sports-utility vehicle pitted more directly against Tesla’s Model Y and Nio’s ES series. Stocks of other EV makers are mixed. Monster Beverage (MNST US)., the maker of energy drinks, is exploring a combination with Corona brewer Constellation Brands (STZ US), according to people familiar with the matter. CASI Pharma (CASI US) jumped 17% in postmarket trading after CEO Wei-Wu He disclosed the purchase of 400,000 shares in a regulatory filing. Along with an eye on the Fed's plans for tightening policy, investors are also watching for an announcement from Joe Biden on his pick for the next Fed chair. Powell was supposed to make his decision by the weekend but has since delayed it repeatedly. Investors expect current chair Jerome Powell to stay on for another term, although Fed Governor Lael Brainard is also seen as a candidate for the position. “Bringing the most dovish of the doves wouldn’t guarantee a longer period of zero rates,” Ozkardeskaya wrote. “If the decisions are based on economic fundamentals, the economy is calling for a rate hike. And it’s calling for it quite soon.” The Stoxx 600 trimmed gains after German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for tighter Covid-19 restrictions. European telecom shares surged after KKR’s offer to buy Telecom Italia for about $12 billion, which boosted sentiment about M&A in the sector. The Stoxx 600 Telecommunications Index gained as much as 1.6%, the best-performing sector gauge for the region: Telefonica +4.8%, Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane +4%, KPN +2.7%. Meanwhile, telecom equipment stock Ericsson underperforms the rest of the SXKP index, falling as much as 4.9% after a deal to buy U.S. cloud communication provider Vonage; Danske Bank says the price is “quite steep”. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as Covid-19 resurgences in Europe triggered risk-off sentiment across markets amid weaker oil prices, a strong U.S. dollar and higher bond yields. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.3%, with India’s Sensex measure slumping the most since April as Paytm’s IPO weighed on sentiment. The country’s oil giant Reliance dragged down the Asian index after scrapping a deal with Saudi Aramco, and energy and financials were the biggest sector losers in the region. Asian markets have turned softer after capping their first weekly retreat this month, following lackluster moves from economically sensitive sectors in the U.S., while investors continue to monitor earnings reports of big Chinese technology firms this week. “Some impact from the regulatory risks and dull macroeconomic conditions have shown up in several Chinese big-tech earnings and that may put investors on the sidelines as earnings season continues,” Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte., wrote in a note. China’s equity gauge posted a second straight day of gains after the central bank’s quarterly report indicated a shift toward easing measures to bolster the economic recovery. South Korea led gains in the region, with the Kospi adding more than 1%, helped by chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Asia’s chip-related shares rose after comments from Micron Technology CEO Sanjay Mehrotra added to optimism the global shortage of semiconductors is easing. Reports of Japan earmarking $6.8 billion to bolster domestic chipmaking and Samsung planning to announce the location of its new chip plant in the U.S. also aided sentiment. Japanese stocks fluctuated after U.S. shares retreated on Friday following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. The Topix index was virtually unchanged at 2,044.16 as of 2:21 p.m. Tokyo time, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.1% to 29,783.92. Out of 2,180 shares in the index, 1,107 rose and 948 fell, while 125 were unchanged. “There are uncertainties surrounding the direction of U.S. monetary policy,” said Shoji Hirakawa, chief global strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Institute Co. “The latest comments from FRB members are spurring talk that steps to taper could accelerate.” Australian stocks sunk as banks tumbled to almost a 4-month low. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.6% to close at 7,353.10, weighed down by banks and technology stocks as the measure for financial shares finished at the lowest level since July 30.  Nickel Mines was the top performer after agreeing to expand its strategic partnership with Shanghai Decent. Flight Centre fell for a second session, ending at its lowest close since Sept. 20, as the Covid-19 situation worsens in Europe. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1% to 12,607.64. In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index holds Asia’s narrow range, trading little changed on the day. AUD outperforms G-10 peers, extending Asia’s modest gains. SEK and JPY are the weakest. RUB lags in EMFX, dropping as much as 1% versus the dollar with USD/RUB on a 74-handle. According to Bloomberg, hedge funds’ bullishness toward the dollar is starting to evaporate amid speculation the U.S. currency has risen too much given the Federal Reserve remains adamant it’s in no rush to raise interest rates. Meanwhile, the euro pared modest Asia session losses to trade below $1.13, while European bond yields edged higher, led by bunds and gilts. The pound dipped after comments from Bank of England policy makers raised questions about the certainty of an interest-rate increase in December. Governor Andrew Bailey said that the risks to the U.K. economy are “two-sided” in a weekend interview. Australian dollar advanced against the kiwi on position tweaking ahead of Wednesday’s RBNZ’s rate decision, and after China’s central bank removed sticking with “normal monetary policy” from its policy outlook. Yen declines as speculation China will steer toward more accommodative policy damps the currency’s haven appeal. Hungary’s forint tumbled to a record low against the euro as back-to-back interest rate increases failed to shield it during a rapidly deteriorating pandemic and a flight to safer assets. In commodities, crude futures drifted higher. WTI rises 0.3% near $76.20, Brent regains at $79-handle. Spot gold has a quiet session trading near $1,844/oz. Base metal are mixed: LME copper, tin and zinc post small losses; lead and nickel are in the green Looking at today's calendar, we get the October Chicago Fed national activity index, existing home sales data, and the Euro Area advance November consumer confidence. Zoom is among the companies reporting earnings. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,710.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 487.45 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.34% Euro little changed at $1.1283 MXAP down 0.2% to 198.88 MXAPJ down 0.2% to 647.20 Nikkei little changed at 29,774.11 Topix little changed at 2,042.82 Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 24,951.34 Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,582.08 Sensex down 2.0% to 58,450.84 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 7,353.08 Kospi up 1.4% to 3,013.25 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $79.22/bbl Gold spot little changed at $1,846.10 U.S. Dollar Index also little changed at 96.08 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Negotiators hammering out details of a transformative new global corporate tax regime are shaping the deal to maximize its chance of winning acceptance in the U.S., whose companies face the biggest impact from the overhaul The U.S. has shared intelligence including maps with European allies that shows a buildup of Russian troops and artillery to prepare for a rapid, large-scale push into Ukraine from multiple locations if President Vladimir Putin decided to invade, according to people familiar with the conversations. The ruble slid to the weakest since August and the hryvnia fell With investors ramping up expectations for the Federal Reserve and other developed-market central banks to tighten policy, the likes of the Brazilian real and Hungarian forint have been weighed down by inflation and political concerns even as local officials pushed up borrowing costs. The Chinese yuan, Taiwanese dollar and Russian ruble have been among the few to stand their ground An organization formed by key participants in China’s currency market urged banks to limit speculative foreign-exchange trading after the yuan climbed to a six-year high versus peers The Avalanche cryptocurrency has surged in the past several days, taking it briefly into the top 10 by market value and surpassing Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, after a deal related to improvement of U.S. disaster-relief funding A more detailed breakdown of overnight news courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed following last Friday's mostly negative performance stateside, where risk appetite was dampened by concerns of a fourth COVID wave in Europe and recent hawkish Fed rhetoric. Weekend newsflow was light and the mood was tentative heading into this week's risk events including FOMC minutes and US GDP data before the Thanksgiving holiday. The ASX 200 (-0.6%) was subdued with declines led by weakness in gold miners and the energy sector. The Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) was lacklustre after last week’s inflows into the JPY but with downside eventually reversed as the currency faded some of the gains and following the recent cabinet approval of the stimulus spending. The KOSPI (+1.4%) outperformed and reclaimed the 3k level with shares in index heavyweight Samsung Electronics rallying as its de facto leader tours the US which spurred hopes the Co. could deploy its USD 100bln cash pile. The Hang Seng (-0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) diverged with the mainland kept afloat after the PBoC conducted a mild liquidity injection and maintained its Loan Prime Rate for a 19th consecutive month as expected, although Hong Kong was pressured by losses in energy and cautiousness among developers, as well as the recent announcement of increased constituents in the local benchmark. Finally, 10yr JGBs eked marginal gains amid the cautious risk tone in Asia and following firmer demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for 2yr-20yr JGBs, but with upside capped as T-note futures continued to fade Friday’s early gains that were fuelled by the COVID-19 concerns in Europe before the advances were later halted by hawkish Fed rhetoric calling for a discussion on speeding up the tapering at next month’s meeting. Top Asian News China Blocks Peng Shuai News as It Seeks to Reassure World China FX Panel Urges Banks to Cap Speculation as Yuan Surges Paytm Founder Compares Himself to Musk After Historic IPO Flop China Tech Stocks Are Nearing Inflection Point, UBS GWM Says European cash bourses kicked off the new trading week with mild gains (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%; Stoxx 600 +0.3%) following a mixed APAC handover. Some have been attributing the mild gains across Europe in the context of the different approaches of the Fed and ECB, with the latter expected to remain dovish as the former moves tighter, while COVID lockdowns will restrict economic activity. News flow in the European morning has however been sparse, as participants look ahead to FOMC Minutes, Flash PMIs and US GDP ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday (full Newsquawk Desk Schedule on the headline feed) alongside the Fed Chair update from President Biden and a speech from him on the economy. US equity futures see modestly more pronounced gains, with the more cyclically-exposed RTY (+0.6%) performing better than then NQ (+0.4%), ES (+0.4%) and YM (+0.4%). Since the European cash open, the initial mildly positive momentum has somewhat waned across European cash and futures, with the region now conforming to a more mixed picture. Spain's IBEX (+0.7%) is the clear regional outperforming, aided by index heavyweight Telefonica (+5.0%), which benefits from the sectorial boost received by a couple of major M&A updates. Firstly, Telecom Italia (+22%) gapped higher at the open after KKR presented a EUR 0.505/shr offer for Telecom Italia. The offer presents a ~45% premium on Friday's close. Second, Ericsson (-3.5%) made a bid to acquire American publicly held business cloud communications provider Vonage in a deal worth USD 6.2bln. As things stand, the Telecom sector is the clear outperformer, closely followed by banks amid a revival in yields. The other end of the spectrum sees Travel & Leisure back at the foot of the bunch as COVID fears in Europe mount. In terms of individual movers, Vestas Wind Systems (-2.0%) was hit as a cyber incident that impacted parts of its internal IT structure and data has been compromised. Looking ahead, it’s worth noting that volume will likely be more muted towards the latter half of the week on account of the Thanksgiving holiday. Top European News Scholz Closer to German Chancellery as Cabinet Takes Shape Austria Back in Lockdown Ahead of Mandatory Vaccine Policy Energy Crunch Drives Carbon to Record as Europe Burns More Coal BP Goes on Hydrogen Hiring Spree in Bid for 10% Market Share In FX, the Antipodean Dollars are outperforming at the start of the new week on specific supportive factors, like a bounce in the price of iron ore and a further re-opening from pandemic restrictions in both Australia and New Zealand, while the REINZ shadow board is ‘overwhelmingly’ behind another RBNZ rate hike this week. Aud/Usd is holding around 0.7250 and Nzd/Usd is hovering circa 0.7000 as the Aud/Nzd cross pivots 1.0350 in the run up to flash Aussie PMIs and NZ retail sales. DXY - Aussie and Kiwi strength aside, the Greenback retains a solid underlying bid on safe haven and increasingly hawkish Fed grounds after a run of recent much better than expected US data. In index terms, a base just above 96.000 provides a platform to retest last week’s peaks at 96.245 and 96.266 vs 96.223 so far, but Monday’s agenda may not give bulls much in the way of encouragement via data with only existing home sales scheduled. Instead, the Buck could derive more impetus from Treasuries given front-loaded supply ahead of Thanksgiving in the form of Usd 58 bn 2 year and Usd 59 bn 5 year notes. CHF/CAD/EUR/GBP/JPY - All narrowly mixed against their US rival, as the Franc keeps its head above 0.9300 and meanders between 1.0485-61 vs the Euro amidst some signs of official intervention from a rise in weekly Swiss sight deposits at domestic banks. Meanwhile, the Loonie has some leverage from a mild rebound in crude prices to pare declines from sub-1.2650 and should glean support into 1.2700 from 1 bn option expiries at 1.2685 on any further risk aversion or fallout in WTI. Conversely, 1 bn option expiry interest from 1.1300-05 could scupper Euro recoveries from Friday’s new y-t-d low around 1.1250 against the backdrop of ongoing COVID-19 contagion and pre-ECB speakers plus preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence. Elsewhere, the Pound is weighing up BoE tightening prospects and the impact of no breakthrough between the UK and EU on NI Protocol as Cable and Eur/Gbp straddle the 1.3435-40 zone and 0.8400 respectively, while the Yen has unwound more of its safe haven premium within a 114.27-113.91 range eyeing UST yields in relation to JGBs alongside overall risk sentiment. SCANDI/EM - The Nok is deriving some traction from Brent back over Usd 79/brl, but geopolitical concerns are preventing the Rub from benefiting and the Mxn is also on a weaker footing along with most EM currencies. However, the Try is striving to draw a line in the sand irrespective of a marked deterioration in Turkish consumer sentiment and the Cnh/Cny are holding up well regardless of a softer PBoC fix for the onshore unit as LPRs were unchanged yet again and China’s FX regulator told banks to limit Yuan spec trades. In CEE, the Pln has plunged on diplomatic strains between Poland and the EU, the Huf has depreciated to all time lows on virus fears and the Czk has been hampered by CNB’s Holub downplaying the chances of more big tightening surprises such as the aggressive hike last time. In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures see some consolidation following Friday’s slide in prices. In terms of the fundamentals, the demand side of the equations continues to be threatened by the fourth wave of COVID, namely in the European nations that have not had a successful vaccine rollout. As a reminder, Austria is in a 20-day nationwide lockdown as of today, whilst Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands see tighter restrictions, with the latter two also experiencing COVID-related social unrest over the weekend. The European Commission will on Wednesday issue a set of new recommendations to its member states on non-essential travel, a senior EU diplomat said, which will be watched for activity and jet fuel demand. Over to the supply side, There were weekend reports that Japan and the US are planning a joint announcement regarding the SPR release, although a key Japanese official later noted there was no fixed plan yet on releasing reserves. Japanese PM Kishida confirmed that they are considering releasing oil reserves to curb prices. Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear talks are regaining focus as negotiations are poised to resume on the 29th of November – it is likely we’ll see officials telegraph their stances heading into the meeting. Eyes will be on whether the US offers an olive branch as Tehran stands firm. Elsewhere, the next OPEC+ meeting is also looming, but against the backdrop of lower prices, COVID risk and SPR releases, it is difficult to see a scenario where OPEC+ will be more hawkish than dovish. WTI and Brent Jan trade on either side of USD 76/bbl and USD 79/bbl respectively and within relatively narrow bands. Spot gold and silver meanwhile see a mild divergence, with the yellow metal constrained by resistance in the USD 1,850/oz area, whilst spot silver rebounded off support at USD 24.50/oz. Finally, base metals are relatively mixed with no standout performers to point out. LME copper is flat but holds onto USD 9,500+/t status. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Oct. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.10, prior -0.13 10am: Oct. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -1.8%, prior 7.0% 10am: Oct. Home Resales with Condos, est. 6.18m, prior 6.29m DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap This morning we’ve just published our 2022 credit strategy outlook. 2021 has been one of the lowest vol years for credit on record but we think this is unlikely to last and spreads will sell-off at some point in H1 when markets reappraise how far behind the curve the Fed is. Even with covid restrictions mounting again in Europe as we go to print, we think it’s more likely that we’ll be in a “growthflationary” environment for 2022 and think overheating risks are more acute than the stagflation risk, especially in the US. Strong growth and high liquidity should mean that full year 2022 is a reasonable year for credit overall but if we’re correct there’ll be regular pockets of inflationary/interest rate concerns in the market, which we think is more likely to happen in H1. At the H1 wides, we could see spreads widen as much as 30-40bps in IG and 120-160bps in HY which is consistent with typical mid-cycle ranges through history. We do expect this to mostly retrace in H2 as markets recover from the shock and growth remains decent and liquidity still high. However, with the potential for a shift in the narrative to potential late-cycle dynamics, we think spreads will close 2022 slightly wider than they are today. We will be watching the yield curve closely through the year for clues as to how the cycle will evolve into 2023. This has the ability to move our YE 22 forecasts in both directions as the year progresses. This week will be heavily compressed given Thanksgiving on Thursday. The highlight though will be a likely choice of Fed governor before this, assuming the timetable doesn’t slip again. Overnight it’s been announced that Biden will give a speech to the American people tomorrow on the economy and prices. It’s possible the Fed Chair gets announced here and perhaps plans to release oil from the strategic reserve. We will see. Following that, Wednesday is especially busy as a pre-holiday US data dump descends upon us. We’ll see the minutes of the November 3rd FOMC meeting and earlier that day the core PCE deflator (the Fed's preferred inflation metric), Durable Goods, the UoM sentiment index (including latest inflation expectations), new home sales and jobless claims amongst a few other releases. More internationally, covid will be focus, especially in Europe as Austria enters lockdown today after the shock announcement on Friday. Germany is probably the swing factor here for sentiment in Europe so case numbers will be watched closely. Staying with Germany, there’s anticipation that a coalition agreement could be reached in Germany between the SPD, Greens and the FDP, almost two months after their federal election. Otherwise, the flash PMIs for November will be in focus, with the ECB following the Fed and releasing the minutes from their recent meeting on Thursday. As discussed at the top the most important market event this week is likely to be on the future leadership of the Federal Reserve, as it’s been widely reported that President Biden is expected to announce his choice on who’ll be the next Fed Chair by Thanksgiving on Thursday. Previous deadlines have slipped on this announcement, but time is becoming increasingly limited given the need for Senate confirmation ahead of Chair Powell’s current four-year term expiring in early February. The two names that are quite obviously in the frame are incumbent Chair Powell and Governor Brainard, but there are also a number of other positions to fill at the Fed in the coming months, with Vice Chair Clarida’s term as an FOMC governor expiring in January, Randal Quarles set to leave the Board by the end of this year, and another vacant post still unfilled. So a significant opportunity for the Biden administration to reshape the top positions at the Fed. In spite of all the speculation over the position of the Fed Chair, our US economists write in their latest Fed update (link here), that the decision is unlikely to have a material impact on the broad policy trajectory. Inflation in 2022 is likely to remain at levels that make most Fed officials uncomfortable, whilst the regional Fed presidents rotating as voters lean more hawkish next year, so there’ll be constraints to how policy could shift in a dovish direction, even if an incoming chair wanted to move things that way. Another unconfirmed but much anticipated announcement this week could come from Germany, where there’s hope that the centre-left SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP will finally reach a coalition agreement. The general secretaries of all three parties have recently said that they hope next week will be when a deal is reached, and a deal would pave the way for the SPD’s Olaf Scholz to become chancellor at the head of a 3-party coalition. Nevertheless, there are still some hurdles to clear before then, since an agreement would mark the start of internal party approval processes. The FDP and the SPD are set to hold a party convention, whilst the Greens have announced that their members will vote on the agreement. On the virus, there is no doubt things are getting worse in Europe but it’s worth putting some of the vaccine numbers in some context. Austria (64% of total population) has a double vaccination rate that is somewhat lower than the likes of Spain (79%), Italy (74%), France (69%), the UK (69%) and Germany (68%). The UK for all its pandemic fighting faults is probably as well placed as any due to it being more advanced on the booster campaign due to an earlier vaccine start date and also due to higher natural infections. It was also a conscious decision back in the summer in the UK to flatten the peak to take load off the winter wave. So this is an area where scientists and the government may have made a calculated decision that pays off. Europe is a bit behind on boosters versus the UK but perhaps these will accelerate as more people get 6 months from their second jab, albeit a bit too late to stop some kind of winter wave. There may also be notable divergence within Europe. Countries like Italy and Spain (and to a slightly lesser extent France) that were hit hard in the initial waves have a high vaccination rate so it seems less likely they will suffer the dramatic escalation that Austria has seen. Germany is in the balance as they have had lower infection rates which unfortunately may have encouraged slightly lower vaccination rates. The irony here is that there is some correlation between early success/lower infections and lower subsequent vaccination rates. The opposite is also true - i.e. early bad outcomes but high vaccination rates. The US is another contradiction as it’s vaccination rate of 58% is very low in the developed world but it has had high levels of natural infections and has a higher intolerance for lockdowns. So tough to model all the above. Overall given that last winter we had no vaccines and this year we have very high levels of protection it seems unfathomable that we’ll have an outcome anywhere near as bad. Yes there will be selected countries where the virus will have a more severe impact but most developed countries will likely get by without lockdowns in my opinion even if the headlines aren’t always going to be pleasant. Famous last words but those are my thoughts. In light of the rising caseloads, the November flash PMIs should provide some context for how the global economy has performed into the month. We’ve already seen a deceleration in the composite PMIs for the Euro Area since the summer, so it’ll be interesting to see if that’s maintained. If anything the US data has reaccelerated in Q4 with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow series at 8.2% for the quarter after what will likely be a revised 2.2% print on Wednesday for Q3. Time will tell if Covid temporarily dampens this again. Elsewhere datawise, we’ll also get the Ifo’s latest business climate indicator for Germany on Wednesday, which has experienced a similar deceleration to other European data since the summer. The rest of the week ahead appears as usual in the day-by-day calendar at the end. Overnight in Asia stocks are mixed with the KOSPI (+1.31%) leading the pack followed by the Shanghai Composite (+0.65%) and CSI (+0.53%), while the Nikkei (-0.18%) and Hang Seng (-0.35%) are lower. Stocks in China are being boosted by optimism that the PBOC would be easing its policy stance after its quarterly monetary policy report on Friday dropped a few hints to that effect. Futures are pointing towards a positive start in the US and Europe with S&P 500 futures (+0.31%) and DAX futures (+0.14%) both in the green. Turning to last week now, rising Covid cases prompted renewed lockdown measures to varying degrees and hit risk sentiment. Countries across Europe implemented new lockdown measures and vaccine requirements to combat the latest rise in Covid cases. The standouts included Austria and Germany. Austria will start a nationwide lockdown starting today and will implement a compulsory Covid vaccine mandate from February. Germany will restrict leisure activities and access to public transportation for unvaccinated citizens and announced a plan to improve vaccination efforts. DM ten-year yields decreased following the headline. Treasury, bund, and gilt yields declined -3.8bps, -6.7bps, and -4.6bps on Friday, respectively, bringing the weekly totals to -1.3bps, -8.3bps, and -3.5bps, respectively. The broad dollar appreciated +0.54% Friday, and +0.98% over the week. Brent and WTI futures declined -2.89% and -3.68% on Friday following global demand fears, after drifting -4.27% and -5.79% lower throughout the week as headlines circulated that the US and allies were weighing whether to release strategic reserves. European equity indices declined late in the week as the renewed lockdown measures were publicized. The Stoxx 600, DAX, and CAC 40 declined -0.33%, -0.38%, and -0.42%, respectively on Friday, bringing their weekly totals to -0.14%, +0.41%, and +0.29%. The S&P 500 index was also hit ending the week +0.32% higher after declining -0.14% Friday, though weekly gains were concentrated in big technology and consumer discretionary stocks. U.S. risk markets were likely supported by the U.S. House of Representatives passing the Biden Administration’s climate and social spending bill. The bill will proceed to the Senate, where its fate lays with a few key moderate Democrats. This follows President Biden signing a physical infrastructure bill into law on Monday. On the Fed, communications from officials took a decidedly more hawkish turn on inflation dynamics, especially from dovish members. Whether the Fed decides to accelerate its asset purchase taper at the December FOMC will likely be the key focus in markets heading into the meeting. Ending the weekly wrap up with some positive Covid news: the U.S. Food and Drug Administration cleared Pfizer and Moderna booster shots for all adults. Additionally, the US will order 10 million doses of Pfizer’s Covid pill. Tyler Durden Mon, 11/22/2021 - 07:49.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 22nd, 2021

Flowers Foods (FLO) Beats on Q3 Earnings, Raises 2021 View

Flowers Foods' (FLO) sturdy third-quarter 2021 performance is buoyed by higher market share gains for its leading brands. Management lifts view for the full year. Flowers Foods, Inc. FLO announced third-quarter 2021 results wherein both the top and the bottom line exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate and grew year over year. FLO continued witnessing market share gains for its key brands. Also, non-retail business is steadily recovering from the impacts of the pandemic. Efforts with respect to innovation and marketing coupled with strength in brands are driving the results.Flowers Foods also raised its sales and earnings per share (EPS) guidance for 2021. Following the earnings release, the stock gained 3.9% in after-hours trading on Nov 11.Q3 HighlightsAdjusted EPS of 30 cents came ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 25 cents. The bottom line rose 3.4% from 29 cents earned in the year-ago period.Sales rose 3.9% to $1,027.8 million and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,012 million. Branded retail sales increased 4.8% to $689.1 million. Store branded retail sales dropped 8.5% to $124.6 million. Non-retail and other sales rose 9.2% to $214.2 million.Flowers Foods, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Flowers Foods, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Flowers Foods, Inc. QuoteCosts & MarginsMaterials, labor, supplies and other production expenses (excluding depreciation and amortization) as a percentage of sales contracted 20 basis points (bps) year over year to 50.1%. This decline can be attributed to increased sales and $1.9 million of start-up costs in the prior-year period with respect to the conversion of  Flowers Foods’ Lynchburg, VA facility to an organic bakery. Higher favorable price/mix negated elevated commodity costs, offset by lower outside purchases.Adjusted selling, distribution and administrative costs as a percentage of sales flared up 40 bps to 38.4% on account of escalated transportation costs and marketing investments, partly offset by reduced distributor distribution fees. Adjusted EBITDA inched up 1.8% to $118.5 million while adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 30 bps to 11.5%.More Financial AspectsFlowers Foods ended the reported quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $307.5 million and a long-term debt of $890.2 million. Stockholders’ equity amounted to $1,411.9 million.This year through the third quarter of 2021, FLO’s cash flow from operating activities has amounted to $315.2 million while capital expenditures have been $86.7 million.Flowers Foods paid out dividends worth $131.5 million in the aforementioned period and has 5.8 million shares remaining under the ongoing repurchase program. Capital expenditures are projected in the range of $125-$135 million for 2021.2021 GuidanceManagement remains impressed with Flowers Foods’ year-to-date performance, powered by its leading brands and continued investments toward enhancing sales and optimizing network. FLO remains encouraged about its potential, thanks to a firm focus on its four key strategies. These include developing its team, undertaking prudent mergers and acquisitions, concentrating on brands and prioritizing margins.Management now projects sales in the range of $4.300-$4.344 billion, suggesting a 1-2% decline from the year-ago reported figure. This outlook includes a 1.8% sales reduction due to one less week in the current year. Earlier, sales were anticipated to be $4.256-$4.300 billion.EPS is now envisioned in the range of $1.22-$1.26, up from the prior projection of $1.17-$1.22. The guidance includes an effect of nearly 2 cents from a week less in 2021 and an impact of 1 cent in the final quarter for appreciation bonuses to its frontline workers.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2021 sales and earnings currently stands at $4.29 billion and $1.19, respectively.Flowers Foods expects net interest expenses of about $8 million and an effective tax rate of nearly 24.5% for the year.Shares of the currently Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) FLO have risen 11.5% over the past three months against the industry’s 0.6% dip.How Other Stocks FaredHere are the earnings highlights of some better-ranked stocks from the broader Consumer Staples space that houses Flowers Foods.The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. HAIN posted first-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Nov 10 with both sales and earnings surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, the top and the bottom line declined on a year-on-year basis. Quarterly performance was affected by tough year-over-year comparisons, thanks to elevated demand conditions resulting from the pandemic in the prior-year quarter.Hain Celestial is confident of its business growth momentum in the long run and reaffirmed its guidance for fiscal 2022. Shares of the presently Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) HAIN have increased 2.9% in the past three months against the industry’s dip of 0.6%. HAIN has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.7%, on average.  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Albertsons Companies, Inc. ACI posted second-quarter fiscal 2021 results on Oct 18. ACI’s top- and the bottom-line metrics reflected year-over-year growth as well as surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results benefited from strong identical sales as well as digital revenues.Albertsons saw strong traffic trends across stores as vaccinations propelled consumers to spend more time outdoors. ACI’s transformation strategy is also on track. Shares of this presently Zacks #2 Ranked ACI have increased 16.2% in the past three months against the industry’s decline of 8.4%. ACI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 37.6%, on average.The Hershey Company HSY reported stellar third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 28. HSY’s top and the bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increased year over year. Solid consumer demand for brands contributed to the upbeat performance. HSY witnessed growth in the North America, and International and Other segments. Following stronger-than-anticipated results, Hershey raised net sales and earnings view for 2021. Better-than-expected consumer demand, an improved tax outlook and an optimized brand investment are tailwinds. The currently Zacks #3 Ranked stock has gained 1.2% in the past three months compared with the industry’s 2.1% rise. HSY has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.4%, on average. Tech IPOs With Massive Profit Potential In the past few years, many popular platforms and like Uber and Airbnb finally made their way to the public markets. But the biggest paydays came from lesser-known names. For example, electric carmaker X Peng shot up +299.4% in just 2 months. Think of it this way… If you had put $5,000 into XPEV at its IPO in September 2020, you could have cashed out with $19,970 in November. With record amounts of cash flooding into IPOs and a record-setting stock market, this year’s lineup could be even more lucrative.See Zacks Hottest Tech IPOs Now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Hershey Company The (HSY): Free Stock Analysis Report Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI): Free Stock Analysis Report The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (HAIN): Free Stock Analysis Report Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksNov 12th, 2021

Futures Rebound From Post-CPI Rout As China Property Stocks Soar

Futures Rebound From Post-CPI Rout As China Property Stocks Soar US futures rose and European bourses once again rebounded from overnight lows, this time after concerns that scorching US and Chinese CPI and PPI prints will prompt central banks to tighten much sooner than expected. The bounce was aided by a surge in Chinese property developers which booked their best two-day gain in six years, joined by a jump in technology stocks, as investors speculated Beijing may soften regulatory crackdowns on the two industries. At 730am S&P futures were up 16.75 ot 0.36 to 4,658.50, Dow Jones futs were up 40 points or 0.11% and Nasdaq futures were up 97.50 or 0.61%. The dollar index rose and cash Treasurys are closed today for Veterans day. Wednesday’s stronger-than-forecast data on U.S. consumer prices finally crushed the argument that inflation is transitory and weighed on the tech sector in particular as Treasury yields spiked. Tesla shares rose 5% in premarket trading following filings that showed Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk sold $5 billion in stock in the electric-vehicle maker a few days after the shares hit a record high. Disney dropped 4.8% in premarket trading to lead declines among Dow components after reporting the smallest rise in Disney+ subscriptions since the service's launch and posted downbeat profit at its theme park division. SoFi rose as much as 16% in premarket after Jefferies said the fintech’s third-quarter results were a “strong” beat. Amazon-backed electric-vehicle maker Rivian Automotive jumped 4.9%, adding to the nearly 30% gain on its blockbuster trading debut. Chinese tech stocks got some comfort from a report that ride-hailing company Didi Global Inc. is getting ready to relaunch its apps in China by the end of the year as an investigation wraps up. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Beyond Meat (BYND US) shares plunged 20% in premarket after the maker of plant-based meats released a disappointing sales projection for 4Q. Fossil (FOSL US) jumped 33% premarket after the accessory maker boosted its net sales forecast for the full year. Bumble (BMBL US) the dating app that lets women make the first move, reported earnings in the third quarter that missed analysts’ estimates. The shares fell 7% premarket. Disney (DIS US) shares fall as much as 5.3% in premarket, with analysts flagging softness in its Disney+ subscribers and net income in its fiscal fourth quarter. Rivian (RIVN US) jumps 8% in premarket after the electric truck maker soared in its trading debut on Wednesday. Didi (DIDI US) gains 4% in premarket after Reuters reported that the company is preparing to reintroduce its apps in China by the end of the year as regulators wrap up their investigations into the ride- hailing giant. Marqeta (MQ US) gains 17% premarket, with analysts saying the payments platform delivered a strong beat-and-raise report for 3Q. SoFi Technologies (SOFI US) rises 15% premarket with Jefferies saying the fintech’s 3Q results are a “strong” beat. Figs (FIGS US) shares sank 14% in postmarket trading on Wednesday, after the seller of scrubs for health-care workers reported a third-quarter profit in line with analysts’ estimates. Oscar Health (OSCR US) fell 10% postmarket Wednesday after the upstart health insurer projected a deeper adjusted Ebitda loss for the full year. Payoneer Global (PAYO US), the payment solutions company, gained 8% premarket after its full- year revenue forecast beat the average analyst estimate. Wish (WISH US) fell 2% after the e-commerce services company posted an Ebitda loss for the fourth quarter Despite today's mini relief rally, investors are bracing for tighter monetary policy sooner rather than later, after Wednesday’s stronger-than-forecast data on U.S. consumer prices dealt a blow to the argument that inflation is transitory. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that the European Central Bank could stop buying bonds as early as next September if inflation looks to have sustainably returned to the official target, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said. “This is the perfect time to gravitate toward defensive plays, to take profit and to be in the sectors that are strategically positioned toward this volatile market that presents a lot of challenges,” Katerina Simonetti, senior vice president at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg Television. Market participants were also watching developments around the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair, with President Joe Biden still weighing whether to keep Jerome Powell for a second term or elevate Fed Governor Lael Brainard to the post In Europe, equities pushed into the green after a muted start, with the Stoxx 600 Index up 0.1% while the Euro Stoxx 50 is little changed as France's CAC outperformed and the U.K.’s exporter-heavy FTSE 100 Index rose as the pound held near an 11-month low after better-than-expected economic growth data. Basic resources, construction and banking names are the strongest sectors; travel and oil & gas the notable laggards. The Stoxx Europe 600 basic resources sub-index rose as much as 2.9%, the most in about a month, as iron ore rebounds and other metals rise. Anglo American, Rio Tinto, BHP, Glencore and Norsk Hydro among those leading gains by index points.ArcelorMittal also rallied after 3Q results. Miners are outperforming gains on the Stoxx Europe 600, which is up 0.2%. Iron ore’s rout halted as expectations build for an easing of the real-estate turmoil in China that’s battered demand, while aluminum jumped as supplies of the metal tighten. And speaking of Europe, ECB-dated OIS rates now price ~20bps of hikes by end-2022 as STIRs globally wrestle with the latest hot inflation prints. Here are some of the biggest European movers this morning: Auto Trader jumped as much as 15% to a record high, with Jefferies saying its new guidance should drive mid-single-digit upgrades to consensus estimates for the online car listings platform. Sika shares surge as much as 12% following the acquisition of construction chemicals peer MBCC, with Baader, Vontobel and Morgan Stanley all positive on the deal. ArcelorMittal shares rise as much as 4.4% after the steelmaker’s results, with Citi saying the update has a positive tone despite the numbers missing estimates. Siemens shares rise as much as 2.8% with analysts saying the German industrial group’s update was encouraging, with its dividend among the main positives. Johnson Matthey shares plummet as much as 20% after the company warned on its current trading and said it will exit its battery business. Burberry shares slump as much as 10% after the luxury goods company’s comparable store sales missed market expectations, with analysts saying consensus estimates are likely to remain unchanged, and the focus will be on the upcoming management change. Earlier in the session, Asia’s regional benchmark declined, on track for a third day of losses, after monthly U.S. consumer prices rose at the fastest annual pace since 1990, raising concerns over costs and monetary policy moves. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.6%, before paring most of the losses, with several tech hardware stocks weighing on the benchmark and Tencent the biggest drag after its 3Q revenue missed analyst estimates. Still, the Hang Seng Tech Index ended the day higher after Reuters reported that Didi Global is getting ready to relaunch apps in China by the end of the year. Investors have been cautiously eyeing inflation data as the next market catalyst amid the ongoing pandemic. China helped lead Asian stocks lower Wednesday after reporting a spike in producer prices. “The inflation number spoke to scope for greater and longer-lasting tightening, which understandably hurt the tech sector,” said Ilya Spivak, head of Greater Asia at DailyFX. “The vulnerability there is to longer-term financing, because near-term is pretty well locked in for the most part,” he said. India, Taiwan and the Philippines posted the steepest declines Thursday, while Australian equities slid after unemployment unexpectedly jumped in October. China was the top performer as property developers rallied, while Japan’s benchmarks posted their first rise in five sessions as the yen weakened.  Japanese equities rose, rebounding after after a four-day loss, as electronics and auto makers climbed while the yen weakened. Trading houses and machinery makers were also among the biggest boosts to the Topix, which rose 0.3%. Fanuc and SoftBank Group were the biggest contributors to a 0.6% gain in the Nikkei 225. The yen slightly extended its 0.9% overnight loss against the dollar. Tokyo shares fluctuated in early trading after U.S. stocks fell by the most in a month and Treasury yields spiked. Labor Department data showed consumer prices rose last month at the fastest annual pace since 1990, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to end near-zero interest rates sooner than expected “Investors had been selling value stocks and buying up growth stocks, but now that’s being reversed,” said Mamoru Shimode, chief strategist at Resona Asset Management. Going forward “the environment will be a favorable one for Japanese equities,” he said, noting the local market’s underperformance against global peers. In rates, Treasury futures are mixed with a curve-flattening bent, remaining near low end of Wednesday’s range, when above-estimate CPI and poor 30-year bond auction caused a selloff across the curve. As noted above, the Cash Treasuries market is closed Thursday for Veteran’s Day. Treasury 10-year yields closed Wednesday at 1.549%, nearly 10bp higher on the day; EGBs and gilts are slightly richer on the day out to the 10-year sector, while curves are mildly steeper. Wednesday’s price action in the U.S. sent ripples through European markets, which now price 20bps of ECB rate hikes in December 2022 for the first time since the start of the month.  Euribor futures add 4-6 ticks in red and green packs. Bunds and gilts bear steepen gently. Peripheral spreads widen at the margin. Short end Italy underperforms despite a decent reception at today’s auctions. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reached its strongest level in a year and the greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers, with the biggest losses seen among some commodity currencies. Cable inched lower to trade below $1.34 for the first time since December 2020. The U.K. economy grew more strongly than expected in September after a surge in service industries and construction. GDP rose 0.6% from August, the Office for National Statistics said Thursday. That was quicker than the 0.4% pace anticipated by economists. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were the worst G-10 performers; Aussie fell and Australian sovereign yields trimmed an opening spike after the nation’s jobless rate jumped to 5.2%. The initial move was in line with Treasuries, which plunged after U.S. inflation came in at the hottest since 1990. In commodities, crude futures fade a pop higher after quiet Asian trade; WTI is little changed near $81.20, Brent stalls below $83. Spot gold rises back toward Wednesday’s best levels, trading near $1,860/oz. Base metals are in the green with LME aluminum outperforming To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the UK’s preliminary Q3 GDP reading. From central banks, the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin, and speakers include the ECB’s Makhlouf, Schnabel and Hernandez de Cos, along with the BoE’s Mann. Otherwise, the European Commission will be releasing their latest economic forecasts, and it’s the Veterans’ Day Holiday in the United States. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,658.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 484.44 MXAP little changed at 197.72 MXAPJ down 0.2% to 647.07 Nikkei up 0.6% to 29,277.86 Topix up 0.3% to 2,014.30 Hang Seng Index up 1.0% to 25,247.99 Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,532.79 Sensex down 0.8% to 59,898.81 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 7,381.95 Kospi down 0.2% to 2,924.92 Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,862.18 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.19% to 95.03 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.24% Euro down 0.2% to $1.1461 Brent Futures up 0.7% to $83.18/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The European Central Bank could stop buying bonds as early as next September if inflation looks to have sustainably returned to the official target, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said China’s efforts to limit fallout from China Evergrande Group’s crisis are gathering steam. A series of articles published in state media in the past few days signal support measures are on the way to help developers tap debt markets, potentially easing a liquidity crunch that began with Evergrande’s meltdown five months ago Customers of international clearing firm Clearstream received overdue interest payments on three dollar bonds issued by Evergrande, a spokesperson for Clearstream said A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mixed as positive Chinese developer headlines including news of Evergrande payments, helped the region partially shrug off the losses seen stateside where duration sensitive stocks underperformed as yields surged following a hot CPI print and a soft 30yr auction. ASX 200 (-0.6%) declined with the index led lower by tech and energy which followed suit to the heavy losses in their US counterparts and with disappointing jobs data adding to the headwinds. Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) coat-tailed on the advances in USD/JPY which briefly climbed above the 114.00 level and with a slew of earnings releases providing a catalyst for individual stock prices. Hang Seng (+1.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.2%) were varied with notable strength in property names after Evergrande was reported to have paid the overdue interest on three bonds to avoid a default and with China said to be considering moderating property curbs to help troubled developers unload assets. In addition, the PBoC continued with its mild liquidity efforts and it was also reported that the Biden-Xi virtual meeting is tentatively scheduled for next Monday, although weakness in tech capped upside in the Hong Kong benchmark with shares in index heavyweight Tencent pressured post-earnings as the Beijing crackdown decelerated revenue growth to the slowest pace since the Co. listed in 2004. Finally, 10yr JGBs suffered spillover selling from global peers including T-notes which declined by a point to below 131.00 and with prices also hampered after a weak 30yr auction, while focus in Japan shifted to the enhanced liquidity auction for longer dated government bonds which printed a lower b/c although the highest accepted spread returned positive. Top Asian News Indonesian Stocks Close at Record High on Economic Rebound Signs of Easing as Delayed Bond Coupons Paid: Evergrande Update Asia Stocks Slip After U.S. Inflation Spike, Weak Tencent Sales Kaisa Tells Investors It May Not Make Coupon Payments: REDD European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%) broadly trade mixed following on from this week’s firm inflation reports from the US and China. The handover from APAC was also mixed with focus on China amid notable strength in property names after Evergrande was reported to have paid the overdue interest on three bonds to avoid a default. Furthermore, the PBoC continued with its mild liquidity efforts and it was also reported that the Biden-Xi virtual meeting is tentatively scheduled for next Monday. Stateside, futures are a touch firmer (ES +0.2%) in the wake of yesterday’s cash market losses which saw duration sensitive stocks underperform as yields surged. From a macro perspective, Axios reported overnight that inflation concerns could see US Senator Manchin “punt” President Biden's Build Back Better agenda into next year. Eyes on the Wall St. open will be on Tesla after CEO Musk offloaded USD 5bln of stock in the Co. Back to Europe, Goldman Sachs outlook for 2022 sees a price target for the Stoxx 600 of 530 (vs. current 483) which would deliver a total return of around 13% and mark a continuation of the current bull market, albeit at a slower pace. Sectors in Europe are somewhat mixed with Basic Resources a clear outperformer amid broad strength in mining names and following earnings from ArcelorMittal (+2.9%) which sent the Co.’s shares to the top of the CAC. Banking names are also on a firmer footing amid the favourable yield environment post-CPI with Lloyds (+1.3%) and Commerzbank (+3.0%) supported by broker upgrades at Keefe Bruyette and Morgan Stanley respectively. To the downside, Oil & Gas names are softer as the crude complex struggles to recoup recent losses. Retail names have been weighed on by Burberry (-6.2%) post-earnings with the Co. noting that performance in Europe remains under pressure. Renault (-3.1%) sits at the foot of the CAC after Daimler opted to sell its stake in the Co. for USD 364mln. Finally, Johnson Matthey (-16.3%) is the clear laggard in the region after its CEO announced his decision to step down and the Co. announced it is to exit the battery materials business. Top European News U.K. Growth Data Leave December BOE Rate Rise in the Balance Scholz Aims to ‘Winter Proof’ Germany Against New Covid Wave Kering Says Creative Head Daniel Lee to Leave Bottega Veneta Gas Crunch Fuels RWE Profits as Energy Giant Burns Coal In FX, the Dollar took some time out for reflection and a rest after extending yesterday’s post-US CPI gains with the additional thrust of a supply-related ramp up in Treasury yields following a poor new long bond auction. However, the index could not quite muster enough bullish momentum to touch 95.000 until APAC buyers got a chance to respond to the strength of the inflation data and bear-steepening reaction in debt markets that evolved after initial bear-flattening. The DXY subsequently reset, refuelled and cleared the psychological barrier more convincingly, at 95.101 before fading again as several basket components found underlying bids and technical support around key levels, but still seems bid and upwardly mobile in thinner trading volumes due to Veteran’s Day. NZD/AUD - Perhaps perversely given overnight macro fundamentals, the Kiwi is lagging down under with Aud/Nzd cross elevated near 1.0400, though this could be in recognition of a sharp retreat in NZ food prices and mitigating factors leading to Aussie labour metrics missing consensus by some distance right across the board. Whatever the rationale, Nzd/Usd is lower than Aud/Usd in absolute terms even though the former is holding above 0.7100 and latter has now lost 0.7300+ status. CAD - Weaker WTI crude (in relative terms rather than on the day per se) is not helping the Loonie’s cause after it managed to contain losses on Wednesday, as Usd/Cad hovers near the top of a 1.2535-1.2473 range awaiting the BoC’s Q3 Senior Loan Officer Survey tomorrow for further direction from a Canadian perspective. CHF/EUR/JPY/GBP - All giving up more ground to the Greenback, but to varying degrees with the Franc trying to keep sight of 0.9200, the Euro defend 1.1450 having closed below 1.1500 and a key Fib retracement just shy of the round number, the Yen stay within touching distance of 114.00 and Sterling stop the rot after letting go of the 1.3400 handle again. On that note, a late December 2020 low in Cable at 1.3361 remains intact ahead of 1.3350 for semi-sentimental reasons and then a deep channel trendline from 1.3330-20, while Usd/Jpy has scope to be drawn to decent option expiry interest at 113.70 (1.6 bn) if not similar size spanning 113.60-00. In commodities, WTI and Brent have been choppy this morning with catalysts limited and conditions thinner than normal on account of Veteran’s Day. Price action thus far has seen the benchmarks print a range in excess of USD 1.00/bbl in a narrow timespan, note, that these parameters remain comfortably within yesterday’s levels; currently, both WTI and Brent are at the lower-end of this band as any initial attempt at a recovery has fizzled out with the USD likely a factor. While newsflow directly for the complex has been sparse attention remains on the monthly oil surveys, COVID-19 and geopolitics. Firstly, the OPEC MOMR is scheduled for release today and as a reminder the EIA STEO, under greater focus given US crude/SPR watch, raised 2021 world oil demand growth forecast by +60k BPD to 5.11mln BPD Y/Y increase this week, but cut its 2022 forecast by 130k BPD to 3.35mln BPD Y/Y increase. On COVID, the demand-side is attentive to increasing cases in areas such as Germany with the effective Chancellor-in-waiting Scholz saying further measures will be needed through Winter; additionally, the Netherlands outbreak team are recommending a short lockdown and Beijing has implemented various local measures. Finally, geopolitics is attentive to the situation in Belarus after Lukashenko said they will respond to any sanctions and has suggested closing gas and goods transit through the area. Moving to metals, spot gold and silver remain towards the top-end of yesterday’s parameters, but are only modestly firmer on the session, as newsflow has been slim and the USD’s more gradual upside and lack-of cash UST action is providing a respite from yesterday’s upside. Action that saw spot gold supported by almost USD 40/oz from opening levels. Elsewhere, ArcelorMittal’s earnings update featured a forecast for global steel demand to increase between 12-13% this year excluding China given a softening of real demand. US Event Calendar 9:45am: Nov. Langer Consumer Comfort, prior 49.2 Central Banks Nothing major scheduled DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Yesterday was one of those days to just go “wow” at. The headline YoY US CPI rate of 6.2% was the highest since the 6.3% in 1990, which means that unless you’re at least 50 this will be the highest US inflation print of your career. In fact, apart from 2 months in 1990 at 6.3%, you’d have to go back to 1982 to find a higher print. So you’d have to probably be at least 60 to remember anything like this in your work life, other than that brief spike in 1990. In more detail, for the 6th time in the last 8 months, the headline print came in above the consensus estimate on Bloomberg, with prices up by +0.9% on a month-on-month basis (vs. +0.6% expected). If you look at the reading to two decimal places, it was actually the strongest monthly inflation since July 2008, so hardly a sign that those pressures have been dimming as we move towards year end. We’ll go through some of the moves in more depth below, but markets didn’t react well to the prospect of a more inflationary future, with both bonds and equities moving lower as investors moved to price in earlier and a more rapid pace of future rate hikes by the Fed. A horrible 30 year auction 4.5 hours later cemented a big rise in yields on the day. Note US bond markets are closed today for Veterans Day. Equities remain open but trading will be thin. Just completing the inflation picture, the October price rise was a fairly broad-based one that included upward pressure across all the main categories, including components that are tied to more persistent inflation. Admittedly, a big driver was energy inflation (+4.8% on a monthly basis), but even if you stripped out the more volatile factors, core inflation was still up +0.6% (vs. +0.4% expected), sending the annual core inflation measure up to its highest since 1991, at +4.6% (vs. +4.3% expected). There were also further signs of pressure from the housing categories, with owners’ equivalent rent (+0.44%) seeing its largest monthly increase since June 2006. This housing inflation is coming in bang on script (see page 19 of my 1970s chart book here). Medical care services (+0.49%) was also a big contributor to the upside surprise. The broad-based price gains drove trimmed mean and median CPI, measures of underlying trend inflation, to their highest levels since 1983. There’ll understandably be questions for the Fed off the back of this release, and markets responded by bringing forward their pricing of the first rate hike to the July 2022 meeting. In fact, by the close of trade, roughly an extra 13bps of hikes were priced in by end-2022 relative to the previous day. It’s also worth noting that the latest CPI release means that the real fed funds rate in October was beneath -6%, which is lower than at any point in the 1970s, where the bottom was -5% (see page 3 in the same 1970s chart book and draw the line down another few tenths of a basis point). So by this measure, monetary policy is even more accommodative now than it was back then, in a decade that saw inflation get progressively out of control. For more on those 1970s comparisons, take a look at our full note from last month (link here.) Treasuries understandably sold off, led by the front end and belly of the curve, as investors brought forward the likely timing of future rate hikes. 5yr Treasuries increased +13.5bps (the biggest one-day increase since February), and 10yrs +11.4bps (largest increase since September). The yield curve flattened, with 5s30s down -4.9bps to 68.5bps, the flattest since March 2020. Longer-dated yields were drifting higher through the New York session but accelerated after a 5.2bp tail in the 30yr Treasury auction. The tail was the highest since 2011, and primary dealer takedown was almost 2 standard deviations above average over the last year. Unlike after less-than-stellar auctions earlier this year, bonds stabilised for the rest of the day, with the 30yr +8.6 bps higher, only +1.7bps above pre-auction trading. After all, 30yr yields have rallied 26.0bps since early October, inclusive of today’s poor auction, as there has been some long-end duration demand. Indeed, even with the policy rate repricing, 5y5y rates, one proxy for long-run or terminal policy rates, remain below 2%, after increasing just +6.2bps. This is also manifest in record low real yields through the curve. 10yr real yields initially sunk to an all-time low intraday at -1.253% after the CPI print before ultimately increasing +3.0bps on the day to -1.17%. Likewise, 5yr real yields touched -1.97% in the aftermath of the CPI print, and closed the day +2.5bps higher than Tuesday’s close at -1.88%. With nominal yields outpacing real yields, inflation compensation increased across the curve: 5yr breakevens increased +11.1bps to 3.10%, an all-time high, whilst 10yr breakevens increased +6.4bps to a post-2006 high of 2.71%. Gold (+0.97%), and other precious metals, including silver (+1.37%) and platinum (+0.75%) gained, as did Bitcoin, which clipped another all-time high, $68,992, intraday. The dollar (+0.90%) also benefitted. The continued prevalence of high inflation is having increasing political ramifications, and President Biden put out a statement following the release, commenting on the inflation data (as well as the more positive weekly jobless claims). He said that reversing the trend in inflation was “a top priority for me” and laid a decent chunk of the blame at rising energy costs. He said that he’d directed the National Economic Council to look at further ways of reducing energy costs, and that he’d also “asked the Federal Trade Commission to strike back at any market manipulation or price gouging in this sector”. However, we also heard from moderate Democratic senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who tweeted that “the threat posed by record inflation to the American people is not ‘transitory’ and is instead getting worse. … DC can no longer ignore the economic pain Americans feel every day.” Manchin is a key swing vote on Biden’s Build Back Better Plan, and he has already influenced cutting the bill from the $3.5tn initially envisaged to a framework half that size, due in part to the potential inflationary impact of additional spending. From the Fed however, the only signal we got came from San Francisco Fed President Daly (one of the most dovish FOMC members), who gave an interview with Bloomberg TV shortly following the CPI print. She notably referred to inflation as “eye-popping”, but demurred when asked about changing the course of Fed policy, asserting that it would be premature to “start changing our calculations about raising rates” or to accelerate the pace of tapering. Higher inflation and pricing of aggressive Fed tightening was not a good combination for US risk. The S&P 500 fell -0.82% in its second consecutive decline (which feels like its own record after the recent run), and was down more than a percent intraday. Energy (-2.97%) led the declines (more below) but, tech (-1.68%) and communication services (-1.25%) each declined more than a percent due to the increase in discount rates. Commensurate with the big rate selloff, the Nasdaq (-1.66%) also underperformed. Meanwhile, European equities outperformed, with the STOXX 600 up +0.22% to reach an all-time high, just as the DAX (+0.17%) and the CAC 40 (+0.03%) also hit new records. To be fair, US equities were only slightly down on the day when European bourses closed. Sovereign bonds echoed the US moves however, and a selloff across the continent saw yields on 10yr bunds (+4.9bps), OATs (+6.8bps) and BTPs (+9.5bps) all move higher. Stocks in Asia are trading mixed overnight with CSI (+0.89%) leading the pack, followed by the Shanghai Composite (+0.59%), and the Nikkei (+0.56%) in the green while the Hang Seng (-0.16%) and KOSPI (-0.59%) have lost ground. Staying on inflation, Japan’s PPI for October came out at 8.0% year-on-year (7.0% consensus and 6.3% previous), the highest since 1981. Elsewhere, in Australia the unemployment rate for October saw a big surprise, jumping to 5.2% (4.9% consensus, 4.6% previous) as many people re-entered the labour force after lockdowns. The participation rate rose to 64.7% from 64.5% in September. Futures are indicating a muted start to the day in the US & Europe with S&P 500 futures (+0.08%) up but DAX futures (-0.28%) catching down with the late US sell-off. One solace on the inflation front was a decline in energy prices yesterday, with both Brent crude (-2.52%) and WTI (-3.34%) losing ground. That followed 3 consecutive gains and came after the US EIA reported that crude oil inventories had risen by +1.00m barrels last week. There was also another decline in natural gas prices, with US futures falling -1.99% in their 4th consecutive decline, whilst European futures were down -4.06%. Looking at yesterday’s other data, the weekly initial jobless claims for the US over the week through November 6 fell to 267k (vs. 260k expected). That’s their 6th successive weekly decline and takes the measure to a post-pandemic low. To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the UK’s preliminary Q3 GDP reading. From central banks, the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin, and speakers include the ECB’s Makhlouf, Schnabel and Hernandez de Cos, along with the BoE’s Mann. Otherwise, the European Commission will be releasing their latest economic forecasts, and it’s the Veterans’ Day Holiday in the United States. Tyler Durden Thu, 11/11/2021 - 07:48.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytNov 11th, 2021

Futures Fall, Yields And Dollar Jump Ahead Of Highest CPI In 31 Years

Futures Fall, Yields And Dollar Jump Ahead Of Highest CPI In 31 Years For the third day in a row, early weakness in futures - in this case as a result of China's soaring, record producer price inflation - reversed and spoos rose from session lows but were still down on the session as traders awaited inflation data due later on Wednesday. Treasury yields climbed and the dollar and cryptos rose. At 7:45 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 47 points, or 0.12%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 10.25 points, or 0.22%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 68 points, or 0.42%. Earlier, China's Shanghai Composite fell as much as 1.7% and the Hang Seng dropped more than 1% after China’s factory inflation soared to a 26-year high. The number came just hours before today's US CPI print is expected to rise 5.8% in October, the highest level since since December 1990, after a 5.4% increase in the previous month. The report comes a day after producer prices data showed a solid rise in October and will be scrutinized for clues on the extent to which manufacturers were passing on higher costs to consumers, whose spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy Elevated inflationary pressures “would be the latest test for the Fed’s ‘transitory’ view and challenge the central bank’s stance on policy tightening,” Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group, said in written comments. “The worry is that such stubborn inflationary pressures could choke the recovery in global demand or hasten policy tightening by major central banks.” On Tuesday, Wall Street's main indexes ended their long streak of record closing highs on Tuesday as Tesla tumbled and as investors booked profits from the recent run-up in gains, especially in the absence of market-moving catalysts. The declines on Wednesday came after data showed Chinese factory gate prices hit a 26-year high in October, while economic advisers to the German government said they expected the current rise in inflation to continue well into 2022. It has been a busy premarket trading session with lots of movers. We start with Coinbase which fell 11% as analysts said the crypto exchange’s quarterly results were well below expectations. DoorDash shares surged as analysts raised price targets on the food-delivery firm after expectation-beating results and purchase of Finnish food-delivery startup Wolt Enterprises Oy.  Here are some other premarket movers today: DoorDash (DASH US) shares surge 19% in U.S. premarket trading, with analysts raising their price targets on the food-delivery firm after expectation-beating results and its biggest ever acquisition Chinese technology stocks listed in the U.S. rise premarket after Tencent reported 3Q profit that exceeded expectations even as revenue missed amid China’s crackdown on the tech industry Tesla (TSLA US) shares inch higher 1.9% in premarket trading, set for a positive open after a 16% slump in two days amid several negative headlines for the stock Stran & Co. (STRN US) shares jump as much as 43% in U.S. premarket trading, recovering ground after a sharp drop following the branding solutions firm’s IPO Society Pass (SOPA US) shares drop as much as 54% in U.S. pre trading hours, after the loyalty tech platform had surged following its IPO in the prior session Upstart Holdings (UPST US) plunged 19% in U.S. premarket trading after the company released 3Q earnings and 4Q forecasts; Piper Sandler ascribes share drop to “elevated investor expectations” and lack of quantification of auto opportunity Poshmark (POSH US) shares sink 29% in U.S. premarket trading with Berenberg (buy) saying the online retail platform’s 3Q results and guidance were disappointing PubMatic (PUBM US) surges 22% in U.S. premarket trading after the company’s 4Q sales forecast topped expectations and it posted 3Q results that Jefferies called “impressive” FuboTV (FUBO US) shares drop 4.3% in U.S. premarket trading as a 3Q results beat for the “sports first” streaming-video platform was overshadowed by higher costs and some weakness on its ad revenue Purple Innovation (PRPL US) slumps 31% after it cut its net revenue forecast for the full year; the guidance missed the average analyst estimate RingCentral (RNG US) rises 22% premarket, a day after the provider of cloud-based communications services forecast 4Q revenue that beat the average analyst estimate Toast (TOST US) slides after reporting financial results that included a net loss that widened compared with the same period last year Turning back to CPI, here is a lenghtier preview courtesy of DB's Jim Reid: I may have just about found it vaguely conceivable at the start of the year that on November 10th we’d see a 5.9% YoY US CPI print and the sixth month above 5%; however, I would certainly not have thought that such a number if it had materialized would be greeted with a collective market “meh” with 10yr Treasury yields 450bps below this rate. A lot is resting on this inflation being transitory. This will be the multi-trillion dollar question for 2022, that’s for sure. Last month saw yet another upside surprise that further undermined the transitory narrative, and, in fact, if you look at the last 7 monthly readings, 5 of them have come in above the median estimate on Bloomberg, with just 1 below and the other in line. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for a reacceleration in the monthly prints, with a +0.47% forecast for the headline measure (+0.6% consensus), and +0.37% for core (+0.4% consensus). Their view is that the main driver is likely to be price pressures in those categories most sensitive to supply shocks, such as new and used vehicles. But they also see some downside risk from Covid-19-sensitive sectors like lodging away and airfares, where prices fell over the late summer as the delta variant slowed the recovery in travel. Look out for rental inflation too – last month we saw owners’ equivalent rent experience its strongest monthly increase since June 2006. It’s a measure that reflects underlying trend inflation, so it is important to monitor moving forward. Many models suggest it will be over 4% for much of next year, which is large given that it makes up around a third of the headline rate and c.40% of core. Shifting back to markets, we next look at Europe, where equities also recovered off opening lows with the Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX recovering to trade flat. FTSE 100 outperformed, rising as much as 0.6%. Sector gains in oil & gas, utilities and insurance names are broadly offset by losses in luxury, tech, household & personal goods and travel. Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell for a second day after data showed China’s monthly factory-gate prices grew at the fastest pace in 26 years. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.6% before paring its loss, with materials and IT the biggest drags. The CSI 300 Index slid as much as 1.9% before sharply paring its drop, after China’s producer and consumer price inflation numbers both exceeded forecasts. Commodity prices have soared globally this year amid expectations for a rebound from the pandemic, with energy getting a further boost from a supply crunch. Traders await Wednesday’s U.S. consumer-price report for further clues on monetary policy and economic growth. “Eyes are now closely watching inflation as that is the next market catalyst,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. For some Asian companies “the candle is burning on both ends -- with the supply chain crisis as a ceiling on revenues while obligations to expenses and liabilities remain.”  The Hang Seng turned higher in late trading as real estate developers climbed on a report that China’s bond-issuance policies may be loosened, while Tencent led a surge in tech stocks ahead of its earnings report. Vietnam and Taiwan showed small gains, while benchmarks in most other markets fell. Japanese equities fell, following Asian peers lower after China reported worse than expected inflation. Electronics makers and trading houses were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 0.5%. SoftBank Group and Tokyo Electron were the largest contributors to a 0.6% drop in the Nikkei 225. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.5%, while China’s CSI 300 Index tumbled 1.1% after monthly factory-gate prices in Asia’s largest economy grew at the fastest pace in 26 years. U.S. consumer price data is scheduled to be reported later Wednesday. “Asia is on inflation alert, fearing future costs of inputs from goods sourced from the mainland,” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note. “It seems that investors are keen to lower exposure into the U.S. CPI data tonight.” Australian stocks ended lower for a third session as miners tumbled: the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.1% to close at 7,423.90 after a volatile session. Miners were the worst performing industry group as iron ore prices dropped, with eight of the 11 subgauges closing lower.  Bluescope was the day’s biggest laggard after iron ore plunged to a fresh 18-month low as debt troubles in China’s real-estate market deal blow after blow to prospects for steel demand. United Malt advanced after a media report said the company could be a takeover target. Australia’s central bank Governor Philip Lowe is anchoring his bet that he won’t need to raise interest rates until 2024 on a view that unemployment needs to be lower to spur wage gains. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 13,022.46. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as the greenback traded higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Canadian dollar. The euro extended an Asia session loss and traded firmly below the $1.16 handle. The pound slipped against a broadly stronger dollar, and edged higher versus the euro before a speech by the BOE’s Tenreyro; market is focused on the outlook for rate hikes and traders are also turning attention back to Brexit risks, with the European Union preparing a package of retaliatory measures in case the U.K. decides to suspend parts of a trade accord. Australia’s dollar fell to a one-month low as a slump in iron ore prices prompted short-term leveraged funds to cut long positions. The kiwi declined after a preliminary New Zealand business confidence index weakened In rates, Treasuries traded weak in the early U.S. session, following a selloff in gilts as U.K. markets start to price a higher terminal rate, bear-steepening the curve. Treasury yields are mostly cheaper by 2bp-3bp across the curve with 10-year around 1.475%; gilts lag by additional 1bp vs Treasuries while bunds outperform. During the Asian session, China’s CPI data beat expectations, adding to downside pressure in front eurodollars. Focal points for U.S. session include October CPI expected to show steep increase in y/y rate and final quarterly refunding auction, a $25b 30-year bond sale. Reduced-size U.S. refunding auctions conclude with $25b 30-year bond vs $27b in previous four; Tuesday’s 10- year sale tailed by 1.2bp after steep gains into the bidding deadline. Wednesday's WI 30-year yield around 1.85% is below 30-year stops since January and ~19bp richer than last month’s, which stopped 1.3bp below the WI level at the bidding deadline. In commodities, Crude futures drift lower: WTI drops 0.5% to trade near $83.70. Brent dips back below $85. Base metals are mixed. LME aluminum is the strongest performer; tin and lead are in negative territory. Spot gold drifts lower, losing $5 to trade near $1,826/oz To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned CPI release from the US for October. Otherwise, there’ll also be Italian industrial production for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Elderson and the BoE’s Tenreyro, whilst earnings releases include Disney. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,669.75 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 482.35 MXAP down 0.1% to 198.31 MXAPJ up 0.1% to 648.70 Nikkei down 0.6% to 29,106.78 Topix down 0.5% to 2,007.96 Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 24,996.14 Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,492.46 Sensex little changed at 60,399.20 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 7,423.90 Kospi down 1.1% to 2,930.17 Brent Futures little changed at $84.75/bbl Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,825.71 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.29% Euro down 0.2% to $1.1574 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.18% to 94.13 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The European Central Bank would risk exacerbating inequality if it were to raise interest rates before ceasing asset purchases, according to Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel U.S. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinpingare are scheduled to hold a virtual summit next week, although no specific date has been set, according to people familiar with the matter A lack of top-tier intelligence on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s inner circle is frustrating senior Biden administration officials struggling to get ahead of Beijing’s next steps, according to current and former officials who have reviewed the most sensitive U.S. intelligence reports China’s inflation risks are building as producers pass on higher costs to consumers, reigniting a debate over whether the central bank has scope to ease monetary policy to support a weakening economy and potentially adding to the pressure on global consumer prices The U.K. opposition called for a parliamentary investigation into former Conservative cabinet minister Geoffrey Cox, as the scandal over sleaze and lobbying engulfing Boris Johnson’s ruling party gains momentum A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded negatively after a lacklustre handover from Wall Street where the major indices took a break from recent advances and the S&P 500 snapped an eight-day win streak ahead of looming US inflation data. ASX 200 (-0.1%) was rangebound with early strength in financials gradually offset by losses in the commodity-related sectors and with the improvement in Westpac Consumer Sentiment data doing little to spur risk appetite. Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) was subdued with exporters pressured by unfavourable currency inflows and with the list of biggest movers in the index dominated by companies that recently announced their earnings, although Nissan and NTT Data Corp were among the success stories on improved results including a surprise return to quarterly profit for the automaker. Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) initially underperformed amid ongoing developer default concerns as Evergrande has reportedly failed to pay coupon payments at the end of its 30-day grace period. Rating agencies have also downgraded a couple of developers and Fantasia Holdings shares fell as much as 50% on resumption from a one-month trading halt after it missed bond payments due early last month. Furthermore, tensions continued to brew on the Taiwan Strait after US lawmakers made a surprise visit to Taiwan and with China conducting combat readiness patrols in the area ahead of a potential Biden-Xi virtual meeting that could occur next week, which potentially lifted sentiment, while participants also reflected on the firmer than expected inflation data from China which showed consumer prices registered their fastest increase in more than a year and factory gate prices rose at a fresh record pace. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded marginally higher amid the lacklustre mood in stocks and presence of the BoJ in the market for over JPY 1.3tln of JGBs with 1yr-10yr maturities, although gains were capped by resistance ahead of the 152.00 focal point and a pull-back in T-notes. Top Asian News China SOEs Suggest Govt Ease Debt Rules in Property M&A: Cailian Iron Ore Gloom Deepens as China Property Woes Threaten Demand Chinese Developers Surge on Report Bond Rules May be Eased Tencent’s ‘Other Gains’ Unexpectedly Double, Helping Profit Beat European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%) have traded with little in the way of firm direction as a slew of earnings dictate the state of play amid a lack of fresh macro impulses. The handover from Asia was mostly a downbeat one with focus on firmer than expected CPI and PPI prints out of China and ongoing developer default concerns as Evergrande bond holders have reportedly not received coupon payments by the end of today's Asia-close grace period, in reference to missed coupon payments totalling USD 148.1mln. Stateside, futures are a touch softer (ES -0.2%) after cash markets saw the S&P 500 snap its eight-day winning streak during yesterday’s session. Ahead, the main event for the US will be the CPI release at 13:30GMT whilst the earnings docket continues to slow down with Disney the main standout after-hours. Back to Europe, sectors are mixed with Oil & Gas outperforming peers alongside price action in the crude complex. Banking names saw initial gains trimmed after earnings from Credit Agricole (-1.1%) and ABN AMRO (+1.9%) were unable to provide sustained support for the sector despite the former exceeding profit expectations. The retail sector has been provided a boost by Marks & Spencer (+11.4%) after the Co. reported stellar earnings and raised guidance. Elsewhere in the UK, ITV (+12.0%) sits at the top of the FTSE 100 after printing solid revenue metrics and a bullish revenue outlook. To the downside, Personal and Household goods lag in the wake of earnings from Adidas (-6.0%) which saw the Co.’s performance hampered by factory closures in Vietnam and product boycotts in China. Finally, Alstom (+9.6%) sits at the top of the CAC post-earnings with the Co. stating that supply chain shortages had no material impact on H1 sales. Top European News ECB May Aid Rich If Rates Rise Before QE Ends, Schnabel Says Merkel Advisers Urge ECB Exit Strategy as Price Pressures Rise King Sinks Impala Plan to Create World’s No. 1 Platinum Firm Alstom’s Cash Drain Is Less Than Forecast; Shares Jump In FX, the Greenback remains relatively firm in the run up to US inflation data having turned a corner of sorts on Tuesday, with the index extending beyond 94.000 following its rebound from 93.872 and inching closer to the current 94.380 w-t-d peak, at 94.221, thus far. Interestingly, the Buck has regained momentum irrespective of the benign Treasury (and global) yield backdrop, softer than forecast elements in the PPI release and most Fed officials maintaining a distance between the end of tapering and tightening. However, risk sentiment if wavering to the benefit of the Dollar more than others and the aforementioned CPI readings may be supportive if in line or above consensus. Note, initial claims are also scheduled due to tomorrow’s Veteran’s Day holiday and the final leg of supply comes via Usd 25 bn long bonds. NZD/JPY - Ironically perhaps, the Kiwi is struggling to keep sight of 0.7100 vs its US peer on the very day that COVID-19 restrictions were eased in Auckland, and a further deterioration in NZ business sentiment alongside a fall in the activity outlook may be the catalyst, while the Yen has run into resistance again above 113.00 and is now relying on decent option expiry interest between the round number and 113.05 (1.1 bn) to keep its bull run going. GBP/EUR/AUD/CHF - All softer against the Greenback, as Cable hovers below 1.3550, the Euro pivots 1.1575, Aussie meanders within a range just above 0.7350 amidst favourable Aud/Nzd crossflows and an improvement in Westpac consumer sentiment, and the Franc treads water inside 0.9150-00 parameters. However, Eur/Usd appears to be underpinned by heavier option expiries on the downside than upside rather than ostensibly hawkish ECB promptings from Germany’s Government advisors given 2.1 bn between 1.1575-65 and a further 1.2 bn from 1.1555-50 vs 1.5 bn at the 1.1600 strike. CAD - The Loonie is outperforming or holding up better than other majors near 1.2400 vs its US rival even though WTI has backed off from best levels just shy of Usd 85/brl, but Usd/Cad could still be drawn to expiry interest starting at 1.2450 and stretching some way over 1.2500 in the absence of anything Canadian specific, and pending US inflation data of course. WTI and Brent have been somewhat choppy this morning, but remain within reach of overnight ranges and well within yesterday’s parameters as fresh newsflow has been light; a performance that is similar to the morning’s directionless equity trade. Focus has been on last nights/yesterday's events after the EIA’s STEO release seemingly lessened the likelihood of a SPR release followed by the weekly private inventory report, which printed a headline draw of 2.485M against the expected build of 2.1mln – reaction was minimal. Later today, we get the DoE equivalent for which expectations remain at a headline build of 2.13mln, but the components are expected to post draws of around 1mln. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are a touch softer on the session with the US Dollar and yields perhaps weighing, though the previous metals have once again not deviated too far from overnight parameters. On copper, prices were hampered by the Chinese inflation data though LME copper has staged a marginal recovery as the session has progressed. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Oct. CPI YoY, est. 5.9%, prior 5.4%; CPI MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4% 8:30am: Oct. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 4.3%, prior 4.0%; MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2% 8:30am: Nov. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 260,000, prior 269,000 8:30am: Oct. Continuing Claims, est. 2.05m, prior 2.11m 8:30am: Oct. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -0.8% 8:30am: Oct. Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior -0.8% 10am: Sept. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior -1.1%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.1%, prior 1.1% 2pm: Oct. Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$179b, prior - $61.5b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap After three days in hospital in traction, little Maisie has a 3-hour hip operation this morning. Showing one benefit of the pandemic, she had a zoom call with her class at school yesterday on their big screen where they all got to ask her questions. The best one apparently was one boy who put his hand up and said “will your new wheelchair have an engine?”. I was reading last night about people with Maisie’s condition (perthes) ending up playing international sport as an adult after a long recovery as a kid, including a Danish striker who played in the semi-finals of the Euros this summer and a 132kg American football player. As long as she waits a polite time after her long recovery to beat me at golf then I’ll be very happy. Keeping my mind off things today will undoubtedly be US CPI. Given my inflationary bias views I may have just about found it vaguely conceivable at the start of the year that on November 10th we’d see a 5.9% YoY US CPI print and the sixth month above 5%; however, I would certainly not have thought that such a number if it had materialised would be greeted with a collective market “meh” with 10yr Treasury yields 450bps below this rate. A lot is resting on this inflation being transitory. This will be the multi-trillion dollar question for 2022, that’s for sure. Last month saw yet another upside surprise that further undermined the transitory narrative, and, in fact, if you look at the last 7 monthly readings, 5 of them have come in above the median estimate on Bloomberg, with just 1 below and the other in line. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for a reacceleration in the monthly prints, with a +0.47% forecast for the headline measure (+0.6% consensus), and +0.37% for core (+0.4% consensus). Their view is that the main driver is likely to be price pressures in those categories most sensitive to supply shocks, such as new and used vehicles. But they also see some downside risk from Covid-19-sensitive sectors like lodging away and airfares, where prices fell over the late summer as the delta variant slowed the recovery in travel. Look out for rental inflation too – last month we saw owners’ equivalent rent experience its strongest monthly increase since June 2006. It’s a measure that reflects underlying trend inflation, so it is important to monitor moving forward. Many models suggest it will be over 4% for much of next year, which is large given that it makes up around a third of the headline rate and c.40% of core. Staying with inflation, China’s year-on-year numbers for October surprised on the upside overnight with CPI +1.5% (consensus +1.4%, last month +0.7%), the highest since September 2020. PPI +13.5% (consensus +12.3%) was also at a 26-year high. Asian stocks are trading lower with the KOSPI (-0.86%), Shanghai Composite (-1.20%), CSI (-1.40%), the Nikkei (-0.49%) and Hang Seng (-1.20%) all down after the China numbers. Futures are pointing to a weak start in the US & Europe too with S&P 500 futures (-0.4%) and DAX futures (-0.23%) both down. As investors look forward to today’s number, the long equity advance finally petered out yesterday as the S&P 500 (-0.35%) snapped a run of 8 successive gains. A 9th day in the green would have marked the longest winning streak since November 2004, but in the end it wasn’t to be.It also prevented an 18th up day out of the last 20 for the first time since September 1954.So reset your counters. Instead, we saw a broader risk-off move as equity indices moved lower on both sides of the Atlantic alongside a fresh rally and flattening in sovereign bond yields and curves. So the S&P 500 (-0.35%), the NASDAQ (-0.60%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.19%) all fell back from their record highs in the previous session although the equal weighted S&P 500 was almost flat (-0.03%) showing that there wasn’t huge breadth to the US weakness. Sector dispersion was tight in the US, with materials (+0.43%) among the leaders again along with the more typically defensive utilities sector (+0.44%). Financials (-0.55%) declined on the flatter curve story but it was discretionary stocks (-1.35%) that took the biggest hit, dragged down by Tesla declining a further -11.99% and now losing c.$200bn of market cap over two days or the equivalent of 8.5 times Ford’s market cap. The VIX index of volatility ticked up another +0.58pts to hit its highest level in nearly 4 weeks, but remains comfortably below the peaks reached during September’s 5% pullback in the S&P. By contrast, Bitcoin proved to be one of the few winners of yesterday as it increased to an all-time high of $67,734, although that was slightly down from its all-time intraday high of $68,513 earlier in the day. Meanwhile, the question of the various Federal Reserve appointments has been occupying increasing attention and impacting bond markets, but in spite of the gossip there’s been no fresh news over the last 24 hours we didn’t already know. Earlier this week, Politico cited two sources with knowledge of the process saying that a decision would be made by Thanksgiving. But for those with longer memories, it was reported by Bloomberg back in August that people familiar with the process were saying that President Biden was likely to make his choice around Labor Day in early September, and over two months have passed since. So we’ll have to see what the real deadline is. Nevertheless, the news from late Monday night in the US that Fed Governor Brainard had been interviewed for the Fed Chair position helped support US Treasuries, thanks to the perception that Brainard would be a more dovish pick. Regardless of whether Powell or Brainard is Chair come this time next year, the Board will likely become more dovish as President Biden replaces outgoing Governors (and fills empty seats should he choose to do so). By the close of trade, 10yr yields were down -5.4bps to 1.44%, and the 30yr yield was down -6.4bps to 1.82%, which was its lowest closing level since mid-September. Another striking thing was that the moves lower in Treasury yields were entirely driven by a fresh decline in real yields, with the 10yr real yield down -7.0bps to -1.20%, marking its lowest closing level since TIPS began trading in 1997. Meanwhile, there was another round of curve flattening yesterday, with the 5s30s slope down -2.8bps to 73.5bps, which is the flattest it’s been since the initial market panic over the pandemic back in March 2020. For Europe it was a similar story as yields fell across the continent, and those on 10yr bunds (-5.5bps), OATs (-5.5bps) and BTPs (-5.3bps) all saw decent moves lower. Ahead of today’s CPI, investors had the PPI numbers to digest yesterday, though there was little market reaction to speak of as they came in almost entirely in line with the consensus. The monthly reading was up by +0.6% in October, which in turn saw the year-on-year measure remain at +8.6%, with both of those in line with expectations. The core measure did come in a touch below, at +0.4% (vs. +0.5% expected), but again that left the yoy reading at +6.8% as expected. One factor that may help on the inflation front over the coming months was a major decline in natural gas prices yesterday, with both European (-8.16%) and US (-8.26%) futures witnessing substantial declines. This wasn’t reflected elsewhere in the energy complex though, with WTI (+2.71%) and Brent crude (+1.62%) oil prices seeing a further rise following reports that the US would not need to release strategic reserves due to the demand outlook, and gold prices (+0.42%) closed at their highest levels since June. There wasn’t a massive amount of other data yesterday, though the ZEW survey from Germany for November saw the expectations reading unexpectedly rise to 31.7 (vs. 20.0 expected), which is the first increase after 5 consecutive monthly declines. However, the current situation measure did fall to 12.5 (vs. 18.3 expected). Finally out of the US, the NFIB’s small business optimism index for October fell to a 7-month low of 98.2 (vs. 99.5 expected). To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned CPI release from the US for October. Otherwise, there’ll also be Italian industrial production for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Elderson and the BoE’s Tenreyro, whilst earnings releases include Disney. Tyler Durden Wed, 11/10/2021 - 07:56.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 10th, 2021

Stocks Make Small Gains but Still Reach New Highs

Stocks Make Small Gains but Still Reach New Highs SPECIAL ALERT: The latest episode of the Zacks Ultimate Strategy Session will be available for viewing no later than this Wednesday, November 10. Kevin Matras, Tracey Ryniec, Daniel Laboe and David Bartosiak will cover the investment landscape from several angles in this informative event. Don’t miss your chance to hear: ▪ Tracey and David Agree to Disagree on whether investors should still buy Bitcoin after hitting new highs ▪ Kevin answers your questions in Zacks Mailbag ▪ David and Daniel choose one portfolio to give feedback for improvement ▪ And much more So be sure to mark your calendar then log on to Zacks.com and bookmark this page. The S&P and NASDAQ winning streaks just entered a third week as the indices managed small gains on Monday, which, nevertheless, accounted for another round of new highs. Meanwhile, investors are gearing up for new updates on inflation coming in the next couple of days. November is just in its second week, but the month is shaping up to be one of the most eventful of the whole year. The latest bit of blockbuster news is that the more than $1 Trillion infrastructure bill finally passed Congress, which led to a strong session for stocks that will benefit from such funding. We can add this to the other major stories in just the past few days, including the Fed announcing a taper plan, a ‘goldilocks’ jobs report, and the continuation of a solid earnings season. The Dow was the best performer on Monday due to the infrastructure news, though it only advanced by 0.29% (or nearly 105 points) to 36,432.22. Meanwhile, the S&P rose 0.09% for its first close about 4700 at 4701.70, while the NASDAQ advanced 0.07% (or nearly 11 points) to 15,982.36. That makes new highs for each of the indices. But the S&P and NASDAQ have now put together eight straight sessions of record closes. This impressive run of new highs started last month on Thursday, October 28. The indices are returning from their fifth straight positive week, which was capped off on Friday with a strong Government Employment Situation report. The economy added 531K jobs in October, beating expectations of 450K. The NASDAQ jumped 3% last week, while the S&P was up 2% and the Dow increased 1.4%. We may be at the tail end of earnings season, but there’s still more than 800 companies reporting this week. However, investors will probably be most interested in the upcoming inflation reports over the next two days. The PPI report comes tomorrow and the CPI on Wednesday. Both numbers are expected to remain sweltering, but the big question is how they will perform compared to expectations. The previous month’s numbers were abnormally high, but were not as bad as feared. A repeat performance would be nice... Today's Portfolio Highlights: Commodity Innovators: The newly-passed $1.2 Trillion infrastructure bill was on Jeremy’s mind when he bought Southern Copper (SCCO) on Monday. This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) recently reported a rather lackluster quarter, but it sees “significant headwinds” from the bill and global initiative to address climate change. SCCO is a long-term holding that pays a more than 6% dividend while we wait for the infrastructure push to really make an impact. But that’s not all. The editor also cashed in two double-digit winners in the session. Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is nearing the portfolio’s initial targets of $60, so it was sold for 21.3% in exactly seven months so the service can focus on individual names on any sector pullbacks. Finally, the volatile steel name Nucor (NUE) was sold for 14.7% in less than six months and serves as an infrastructure swap with SCCO. Read the full write-up for a lot more on today’s moves.   TAZR Trader: Shares of automaking staple Ford (F) have soared to two-decade highs as investors appreciate the company’s foray into the EV space. However, most big banks have price targets below $20, so it might be time for the stock to stall a bit as it moves past that mark. Kevin decided to trim the position on Monday and take a 41.9% return. F is currently the third best performer in the portfolio with a 47.2% gain since first being added in July (the editor added to the position a few times since then). In other news, The Trade Desk (TTD) was the best performer among all ZU names today by soaring 29.5% after a nice beat-and-raise quarter. TTD is the second best performer in the service with a 78.6% advance in just under five months. Finally, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also made the top movers scoreboard by climbing 10.1% after gaining Meta Platforms (FB), formerly known as Facebook, as a chip customer. Surprise Trader: Earnings season may be winding down, but there’s still hundreds of reports coming this week and plenty of opportunities for this portfolio. On Monday Dave picked up BellRing Brands (BRBR), a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) nutritional products company that offers things like protein shakes, powders, nutrition bars and supplements. The past four quarters have seen three beats and one match. A positive Earnings ESP of 14% suggests this solid earnings history will continue when it reports again on Thursday, November 18 after the bell. BRBR was added today with a 12.5% allocation, while Newmark (NMRK) was sold for a 5.4% return in less than a week. The complete commentary has more on today’s action.    Technology Innovators: We’re starting off a new week with a new buy, as Brian added ASGN (ASGN) on Monday. This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) IT services firm topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 7.6%, so these are “steady and stable beats”. The stock has a good valuation and solid topline growth that will “probably reach double digits next year”. Learn more about today’s addition of ASGN in the full write-up. Black Box Trader: The portfolio cashed in a double-digit profit among five swaps in this week's adjustment. The stocks that were sold today included: • Olin Corp. (OLN, +21.5%) • Nucor (NUE, +7.1%) • Jefferies Financial (JEF, +0.16%) • PBF Energy (PBF) • C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) The new buys that filled these spots were: • Community Health Systems (CYH) • Huntsman (HUN) • Marathon Petroleum (MPC) • Tronox (TROX) • Univar Solutions (UNVR) Read the Black Box Trader’s Guide to learn more about this computer-driven service. All the Best, Jim Giaquinto Recommendations from Zacks' Private Portfolios: Believe it or not, this article is not available on the Zacks.com website. The commentary is a partial overview of the daily activity from Zacks' private recommendation services. If you would like to follow our Buy and Sell signals in real time, we've made a special arrangement for readers of this website. Starting today you can see all the recommendations from all of Zacks' portfolios absolutely free for 7 days. Our services cover everything from value stocks and momentum trades to insider buying and positive earnings surprises (which we've predicted with an astonishing 80%+ accuracy). Click here to "test drive" Zacks Ultimate for FREE >>  Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksNov 9th, 2021

A Strong Jobs Report and Five Straight Weekly Gains

A Strong Jobs Report and Five Straight Weekly Gains There were no eleventh-hour monkey-wrenches thrown into the market mix on Friday, as a strong jobs report for October kept the major indices in record territory to finish a fifth straight week of gains. The term “goldilocks” has already been used to describe this month’s Government Employment Situation report, which showed that 531,000 jobs were added last month. The result easily surpassed expectations at 450K, but isn’t considered “too hot” by investors. It was a nice turn of events from the September number, which fell well short of forecasts at the time. The result fits in nicely with what the Fed said on Wednesday after its two-day policy meeting. The Committee thinks this economy has recovered enough to begin tapering the monthly bond purchases. The jobs number and the Fed decision were the two big events of the week, and they were both welcomed by the market. As a result, stocks continued moving higher on Friday. The Dow was the only major index with a negative close this week as it moved slightly lower yesterday. But it was back to an all-time high today by climbing 0.56% (or about 203 points) to 36,327.95. It was helped by a solid session from “re-opening” spaces like cruise lines, casinos and airlines. Encouraging results for Pfizer’s (PFE) Covid-19 pill was also a help and sent that stock higher by nearly 11%. The other major indices didn’t see a negative close all week. The S&P was up 0.37% today to 4697.53, while the NASDAQ advanced 0.20% (or about 31 points) to 15971.59. That makes seven straight days of record highs for these indices. The weekly totals (and winning streak) are just as impressive. The NASDAQ jumped 3% over these five days, while the S&P was up 2% and Dow increased 1.4%. These indices have now been on the plus side for five straight weeks. And we’re still in the midst of a solid earnings season as well, though our Director of Research Sheraz Mian notes that earnings and revenue growth has mellowed in the third quarter from the first half. Make sure to read his brand new article titled: “Are Earnings Estimates Going Down?” The scoreboard remains impressive. Nearly 90% of S&P 500 members have reported with earnings and revenues higher by 42.9% and 18.6%, respectively. The proportion of these companies beating both EPS and revenue estimates is 62.9%. Today's Portfolio Highlights: Insider Trader: Energy stocks had a huge run over the past year and reported strong numbers this earnings season... and now the insiders are finally getting involved. Tracey has been waiting for this and so she added two names from the space on Friday: ExxonMobil (XOM) and Oasis Petroleum (OAS). Both companies reported strong quarters and are up solidly so far in 2021. XOM saw a director buy 5000 shares on Wednesday, while an OAS director bought over 1100 shares across two recent purchases. The editor is most impressed that these directors are buying while their stocks are on the rise... and she expects more energy insiders to get involved in the weeks ahead. The portfolio is putting 10% into each name. Get a lot more info on these companies and their insider moves in the full write-up. TAZR Trader: The big winner among all ZU names on Friday was software-as-a-service company BigCommerce (BIGC), which surged more than 28% after a strong third-quarter report that included a positive surprise of more than 57%. While analysts are beginning to give the stock some love, Kevin has near-term concerns about the fintech + e-comm space after negative reactions to the Square (SQ) report. Therefore, today’s rally provided a fantastic opportunity to sell some of BIGC and bank a nice 34.4% return from the oldest batch bought on May 12. The portfolio will hold onto the second wave since the editor is bullish on BIGC and would add more on any pullback moving forward. Surprise Trader: Ever since going public fifteen quarters ago, CarGurus (CARG) has been beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Or to put it another way, this stock has never missed quarterly earnings expectations! So Dave feels pretty good that this online marketplace for used and new cars will outperform again when it reports after the bell on Tuesday. But its not just a gut feeling. CARG, which boasts an average surprise of 52% over the past four quarters, enjoys an Earnings ESP of 2.06% for the upcoming report. The editor finished off this week by adding CARG with a 12.5% allocation, while also getting out of the underperforming Genco Shipping (GNK) position because the shipping stock boom looks like it might be over. Read the full write-up for more on today’s moves. Headline Trader: With the pandemic subsiding and jobs growth accelerating (especially in the leisure & hospitality sectors), Dan wants to get the portfolio some exposure to the valuation-compressed commercial airline space. The editor considers the best-positioned airline moving forward to be Alaskan Air (ALK), which was one of the few companies in its beleaguered space to return to profitability in the third quarter. This airline is a budget vacation play, which Dan thinks is the sweet spot right now since business travel probably won’t return to pre-pandemic levels for a while. But people are certainly in the market for a vacation these days! Plus, ALK still enjoys “ripening synergies” from its acquisition of Virgin America back in 2016. Learn a lot more about this new addition in the full write-up. Healthcare Innovators: The market has the wind at its back right now, so Kevin decided to make a riskier-than-usual play by adding a small position in Adaptimmune Therapeutics (ADAP). This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) is an $800 million company that's focused on cancer immunotherapy products based on a T-cell receptor platform. The editor really appreciates some of ADAP’s good news of late, which includes a collaboration with Genentech and a positive early-stage study. However, Kevin warns that this is a HIGHLY SPECULATIVE biotech name with a data event next week, which is why he’s only “dipping a toe in” with a small addition between $5 and $5.50. He strongly suggests that you not be tempted to do any more at this time. Read the complete commentary for a lot more on ADAP. Have a Great Weekend! Jim Giaquinto Recommendations from Zacks' Private Portfolios: Believe it or not, this article is not available on the Zacks.com website. The commentary is a partial overview of the daily activity from Zacks' private recommendation services. If you would like to follow our Buy and Sell signals in real time, we've made a special arrangement for readers of this website. Starting today you can see all the recommendations from all of Zacks' portfolios absolutely free for 7 days. Our services cover everything from value stocks and momentum trades to insider buying and positive earnings surprises (which we've predicted with an astonishing 80%+ accuracy). Click here to "test drive" Zacks Ultimate for FREE >>  Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksNov 8th, 2021