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BFRI Stock: 7 Things to Know About Biofrontera as Shares Rocket on $20 Price Prediction

InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips Biofrontera (BFRI) stock is catching the eyes of investors on Wednesday following a bullish price prediction and new rating. The post BFRI Stock: 7 Things to Know About Biofrontera as Shares Rocket on $20 Price Prediction appeared first on InvestorPlace. More From InvestorPlace Stock Prodigy Who Found NIO at $2… Says Buy THIS Now Man Who Called Black Monday: “Prepare Now.” #1 EV Stock Still Flying Under the Radar Interested in Crypto? Read This First........»»

Category: topSource: investorplaceNov 24th, 2021

World"s Most Bearish Hedge Fund Shuts Down: Here Is Russell Clark"s Farewell Letter

World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund Shuts Down: Here Is Russell Clark's Farewell Letter It was about four or five years ago that we dubbed Russell Clark (formerly of Horseman Global and more recently of Russell Clark Investment Management) the world's most bearish hedge fund, and for a good reason: roughly a decade ago, Clark decided to take his fund net short - an unheard of event in an industry where despite the name, the average net exposure is well north of 100% - and while his market bias ebbed and flowed, it remained short for much of the past ten years. What is more remarkable is that despite his extremely bearish positioning, Clark managed to eek out consistent monthly gains and with the exception of 2016 he was profitable virtually every year in the past decade... and then 2019 happened and things started falling apart when his hedge fund lost a staggering 35%. He never really recovered. This was the beginning of the end for Clark - sensing what was coming, two years ago we wrote that the "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund" Loses 75% Of Its Assets After Worst Year On Record." Back then we wrote the following: Every trader has heard the age-old saying "don't fight the Fed". Everyone, perhaps with one exception: Horseman Global's CIO, and recently owner, Russell Clark, who has been upping his bearish bets in the face of a relentless liquidity onslaught by the Fed, ECB and PBOC, which now also includes the Fed's "NOT QE." In fact, in his ambition to on up the central banks, Clark may have overdone it, because according to his latest investor letter, the fund's equity net short position is now the highest it has been in history, at a whopping -110.87%, offset by a 60.59% net long in bonds. Alas, while we admire Clark's courage, we have less empathy for the fund's performance, which has seen better days, and after slumping 6% in October, and losing money on 4 of the past 5 months, is now on pace for its worst year on record, down 27.05% YTD, surpassing the -24.72% return posted in 2009, and reversing all the goodwill the fund created with its 7.5% return last year when most of its peers lost money alongside the S&P500. In light of the above, we have been fascinated how long Horseman can remain solvent as the Fed remains irrationally bullish and liquid, and unfortunately for Clark - who recently put his personal money where his mouth is and bought a controlling interest in Horseman where he was the main portfolio manager for years - the answer appears to be "not much longer" - as the fund reports, as of October 31, the AUM for the Horseman Global Fund was down to just $150 million... Two years later, despite the crash in early 2020 which helped boost the fund's fortune for a few months, the slow and steady death by a thousand redemption letters continued, and this morning our prediction has finally come true: the man who for the past decade valiantly fought the Fed, and all other central banks, has finally thrown in the towel. And with capital in his core RCIM Global Fund dropping to just $119 million from as much as $1.7 billion in 2015, Clark writes in what is his last letter to investors that "after a couple of years of turbulent markets and the increasing influence of politics rather than economics on the markets, I have come to the decision that the best way forward is for the Fund Directors to wind up the fund and return capital." The fund shuts down after dropping 5.3% for the month of October and down 2.6% in 2021. While Clark touches on various things in his last letter, what is most notable is the justification for his shutdown. To regular readers of Zero Hedge, nothing he says will be a surprise: the Fed has taken over the "market" which has now become a political tool to shape and mold public opinion, while the core role of markets - discounting the future and price discovery - no longer exists, to wit: This is why I am returning capital. Markets have now become a political choice. US markets are essentially a bet on the Fed unable to raise rates, and congress unable to regulate big tech or raise corporate tax rates. Commodity markets have now become a bet on Chinese policy objectives, and currencies have become a bet on what Chinese policy objectives are too. Give me an economic problem, then I can properly gauge risk. Give me a Chinese political problem – I am taking a guess as much as the next person. Did I think Alibaba was going to fall 50% this year? No, not until the Chinese government told me to think that way. Is Alibaba a good short now? I have no idea, and like everyone else will have to wait to see what the Chinese government says. So, I think it time to step back, have a think about where we are going, and then come back when I can see an opportunity for my skill set. Perhaps that’s never, but I doubt it. The only constant in life is change. As always, we admire Clark's honesty and courage to say it how it is, even if it means we may not hear from him ever again. Meanwhile, in a fitting epitaph for his fund, Bloomberg writes that "the closure marks an end to yet another bearish hedge fund manager’s fund as stocks continue to march ahead. Clark, who uses macro economic analysis to bet on stocks, is among a series of long-short equity hedge fund managers who have fallen way behind surging markets and have suffered investors exodus." The end of Clark’s fund is a contrasting echo to how his investing career began more than two decades ago. As a graduate trainee at UBS Group AG in Sydney, he followed friends getting rich by day-trading tech stocks in 2000 and spent his first few paychecks on five dot-com shares. Four crashed to zero, and the fifth lost half its value as the tech bubble burst. This time, a short wager on tech stocks was his latest contrarian bet. Clark told clients earlier this year that he was betting against technology shares as regulators from the U.S. to China crack down on the industry. Tech stocks as measured by NASDAQ Composite Index have been on a tear ever since. Clark had been net short equities for the vast majority of the last nine years. He has faced a difficult period of performance and capital raising, and his firm -- previously named Horseman Capital Management -- shuttered two funds. Born and raised in Canberra, Australia, Clark bought the controlling interest in Horseman in 2019. He had joined Horseman in 2006 and started running the firm’s flagship fund in 2010 when John Horseman, a highly successful global stock fund manager in the 1990s, retired. Clark, who runs his investment firm from his office inside a small house in a quiet mews near Buckingham Palace Gardens in London, had said in 2019 that he was convinced that a stock market crash was near. Or, he told Bloomberg in rare public remarks, “this could be my farewell interview.” Ironically, he was right: the March 2020 crash - the biggest market crisis since the Great Depression - indeed happened just a few months later but in turn it produced the biggest and most coordinated market bailout by central banks and "helicopter money" in history. And that, for the world's most bearish hedge fund, was the final straw. Clark's final message to investors is below: The fund lost 5.30% this month, mainly from the short book. After a couple of years of turbulent markets and the increasing influence of politics rather than economics on the markets, I have come to the decision that the best way forward is for the Fund Directors to wind up the fund and return capital. The success I enjoyed from 2011 through to beginning of 2016 largely stemmed from asking the question that no one seemed to ask – why does the Yen and Japanese Government Bonds rally whenever there is a crisis? The obvious answer was capital flows from Japan would create a bull market in the area they flowed to, and then when the Japanese pulled capital back, it would create a bear market, often with significant currency volatility. Armed with that observation, and combined with analysis of the commodity markets, we build a portfolio that was largely short emerging market and long bonds. Since 2016, using the same analysis as above, Japanese capital flows have almost exclusively been to the US, and are an order of magnitude larger than anything seen before. And yet, US equities still power ahead, Yen remains weak, and currency volatility has been consigned to the history books. Of course, I asked myself why this is. Why did a model that worked so well, for the best part of 25 years, stop working? The obvious answer is that central banks led Quantitative Easing (QE). But that answer alone seems insufficient to me. Japan has had low interest rates for years and was still racked by bouts of extreme equity and currency volatility. The other problem with that answer is that the big inflation spike seen this year should then lead to greater volatility in equities, especially as central banks dial back QE programs. The answer for me comes from China. China wants a strong currency, and to keep consumption strong. It seems to me that the Chinese government uses it extraordinary control of the economy to control activity and the currency through the commodity markets. To elaborate, I expected China to post a weak trade surplus in October, and for currency devaluation fears to spike (particularly after the recent Evergrande selloff). Chinese trade surplus was actually very strong. And it was strong because Chinese imports of oil and iron ore were down significantly. Chinese steel production was down a stunning 20% year on year, a number you would typically only see in a bad recession. China has effectively taken control of key commodities, and now adjusts volumes to suit its own needs. Taking all this volatility through physical markets, has essentially collapsed financial market volatility, and also led to commodity currencies being significantly weaker than commodity prices – which has been a problem for me this year. Now I understand this, non-obvious trades at the beginning of the year such as long oil, short iron ore now seem obvious. The surprising weakness of gold and other precious metals can make sense in this analysis. It also explains why the extraordinary fiscal and monetary policies of the US have not been met with greater commodity or bond turbulence. It is very hard for me to get bearish US treasuries when I see Chinese steel production down 20% year on year. The big question then is whether this Chinese policy of absorbing financial risk in the physical economy sustainable? History suggests not, as most countries prefer to devalue than slow economic growth. However, I can see reasons why China may continue with this policy. The most powerful is that with US policymakers seemingly unable to raise interest rates, or balance budgets there is a gap in the market for a credible currency. Is China making a play for reserve currency status? And this is why I am returning capital. Markets have now become a political choice. US markets are essentially a bet on the Fed unable to raise rates, and congress unable to regulate big tech or raise corporate tax rates. Commodity markets have now become a bet on Chinese policy objectives, and currencies have become a bet on what Chinese policy objectives are too. Give me an economic problem, then I can properly gauge risk. Give me a Chinese political problem – I am taking a guess as much as the next person. Did I think Alibaba was going to fall 50% this year? No, not until the Chinese government told me to think that way. Is Alibaba a good short now? I have no idea, and like everyone else will have to wait to see what the Chinese government says. So, I think it time to step back, have a think about where we are going, and then come back when I can see an opportunity for my skill set. Perhaps that’s never, but I doubt it. The only constant in life is change. This will be my final newsletter and it just leaves me to thank you for your support and wish you all the success in the future. From a personal perspective I plan to keep producing research, so keep an eye out for my future notes. Russell. As usual, the full letter is available to professional subs in the usual place. Tyler Durden Thu, 11/11/2021 - 10:34.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 11th, 2021

Futures Flat As Yields, Dollar Slide On Speculation Demo-Dove Brainard Will Replace Powell

Futures Flat As Yields, Dollar Slide On Speculation Demo-Dove Brainard Will Replace Powell For the second session in a row, S&P 500 futures reversed earlier losses and traded flat after falling as much as 0.3% earlier in the run-up to today's PPI report - the first of a couple of readings on inflation this week - as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s warning that stock prices are "vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk sentiment deteriorate, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the economic recovery stall." US Treasury yields fell and the dollar index slipped for a third consecutive day following a late Monday report that Joe Biden interviewed uber-dove and Hillary Clinton fan Lael Brainard for the central bank’s top job, although prediction markets were not impressed. European stocks advanced for a ninth day, the longest streak since June while Asian shares drifted. Some more stats from DB's Jim Reid There wasn’t an awful lot of newsflow for investors yesterday as they looked forward to tomorrow’s US CPI release, but the astonishing equity advance showed no signs of relenting just yet, with the S&P 500 (+0.09%) up for an 8th consecutive session to another record high. For reference, that’s the longest winning streak since April 2019, and if we get a 9th day in the green today, that would mark the longest run of consecutive gains since November 2004, back when George W. Bush had just beaten John Kerry to win a second term. It's also 17 out of 19 days up, which hasn’t happened since December 1971. At 715am S&P futures were up 1 point or 0.02% to 4,965. If, or rather when, the S&P closes green today, it will be up 9 consecutive sessions, the longest such streak since Nov 2004. Nasdaq futures rose another 33.25 points; If the nasdaq index is up today, it will be 12 days in a row, a feat it last achieved in 2009 and which hasn't been topped since 1992. “U.S. indexes continue flirting with all-time high levels following a surprise NFP read, the approval of Biden’s $550 billion spending bill and the discovery of an oral Covid treatment from Pfizer,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. “But inflation worries come to overshadow the Monday optimism.” Sysco and DoorDash are among companies reporting earnings. Rivian Automotive is scheduled to price its initial public offering, seeking to raise as much as $10 billion in a listing that could give the producer of electric trucks a fully diluted valuation of more than $70 billion. “The company is seen as the most serious competitor to Tesla in the EV race,” Ozkardeskaya said. “The company will be worth more than Honda and Ferrari." Paypal Holdings fell 4.5% in U.S. premarket trading with analysts saying the payments firm’s full-year guidance was a disappointment and that the shares are likely to remain under pressure near-term despite announcing a new Venmo deal with Amazon, while General Electric surged 11.6% in premarket after the U.S. conglomerate said it would split itself into three companies focused on aviation, healthcare and power. Tesla Inc shares rose 1.4%, rebounding from a nearly 5% fall on Monday after Chief Executive Elon Musk’s Twitter poll proposing to sell a tenth of his holdings garnered 57.9% vote in favor of the sale. The proposal also raised questions about whether Musk may have violated his settlement with the U.S. securities regulator again. Zynga Inc jumped 6.6% after the “FarmVille” creator beat quarterly net bookings estimates, while Tripadvisor Inc fell 7.4% after reporting downbeat quarterly earnings and announcing the departure of Chief Executive Stephen Kaufer. Here are some of the other notable premarket movers today: TripAdvisor (TRIP US) shares fall as much as 7% in U.S. premarket trading with analysts saying the company’s 3Q results and outlook are a disappointment given the travel recovery being seen across the board. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rise in U.S. premarket trading on Tuesday, set to extend Monday’s gains after the global crypto market hit the $3 trillion milestone Roblox (RBLX US) shares jump as much as 27% in U.S. premarket trading after the video-game platform firm’s quarterly bookings topped estimates even after the easing of Covid restrictions Naked Brand (NAKD US) shares rise as much as 45% in U.S. premarket trading, after the company said it will acquire commercial EV technology company Cenntro Automotive in a stock-for-stock deal Robinhood Markets (HOOD US) slides 3% in premarket trading after it said personal information of millions of customers was compromised in a data breach last week and that the culprit demanded a payment. Arrival (ARVL US) plunged 19% in extended trading after the electric-vehicle maker says previous long-term forecasts from the merger with the CIIG special purpose acquisition company should no longer be relied upon SmileDirectClub (SDC US) slumps 21% in U.S. premarket trading after its 3Q revenue and 4Q forecast missed the lowest analyst estimates Aterian (ATER US) shares jumped 24% in postmarket trading on Monday, after third-quarter revenue and gross margin topped analysts’ estimates Five9 (FIVN US) shares rose 8.8% in extended trading on Monday, after the software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations RealReal (REAL US) shares jumped 5.5% in Monday extended trading, after the online marketplace reported third- quarter revenue that beat expectations Invitae (NVTA US) shares tumbled 14% postmarket after the genetics company cut its full- year revenue forecast 3D Systems (DDD US) fell 8.5% postmarket after reporting third-quarter results. The 3D printing firm narrowed its 2021 adjusted gross margin guidance to 41% to 43% from an earlier range of 40% to 44% Data from the Labor Department due at 8:30 a.m. ET is expected to show that its producer price index for final demand rose 0.6% in October, with accelerating inflation and tighter monetary policy becoming a bigger concern for investors than the COVID-19 pandemic. Global equities hovered near all-time highs as investors weigh strong earnings, easing travel curbs and U.S. infrastructure spending against the risk of persistent inflation that may lead to tighter monetary policy.  A better-than-expected earnings season, positive developments around COVID-19 antiviral pills and the loosening of travel curbs have recently helped the market continue its record run. European equities faded small opening losses in otherwise quiet trade, with Euro Stoxx 50 little changed and other major indexes adding ~0.2%. Retailers traded well, insurance and financial services are under pressure but ranges are relatively narrow. Bayer jumped 3% after the German producer of healthcare and agricultural products raised its earnings forecast. In the latest positive development in uranium, Rolls-Royce surged 4.9% after the British engineering company raised an equivalent $617 million to fund the development of small modular nuclear reactors. Investor sentiment in Germany rose unexpectedly in November on expectations that price pressures will ease at the start of next year and growth will pick up in Europe’s largest economy, a survey showed on Tuesday. The ZEW economic research institute said its economic sentiment index increased to 31.7 from 22.3 points in October. A Reuters poll had forecast a fall to 20.0. “Financial market experts are more optimistic about the coming six months,” ZEW President Achim Wambach said in a statement. “For the first quarter of 2022, they expect growth to pick up again and inflation to fall both in Germany and the euro zone,” Wambach added. A fall in a current conditions index to 12.5 from 21.6 - compared with a consensus forecast for 18.0 - showed investors expected that supply bottlenecks and inflationary pressures would hold back the economy in the current quarter, he said. Supply bottlenecks for raw and preliminary materials have weighed down industrial production here in Germany. Exports fell here for a second consecutive month in September. Asian equities were mixed, struggling to follow a positive lead from Wall Street as traders weighed economic optimism and Covid treatments against virus outbreaks across China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.1% on Tuesday, trimming an earlier 0.4% gain. SoftBank surged 11% after the company said it would buy back as much as 1 trillion yen ($8.8 billion) of its own stock. Wuxi Biologics rebounded from the previous day’s tumble, after the U.K. government said it will add some of China’s shots to approved vaccines for visitors.  Taiwan and the Philippines had the region’s top-performing benchmarks, with those in Japan and Malaysia slipping. While Asian markets attempted to follow increases seen on Wall Street overnight, “paring back of initial gains suggest that several factors including China’s Covid-19 situation and its property sector remain of concern,” said Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist with IG Asia Pte. in Singapore.  Investors are also awaiting news from China on the Communist Party’s meeting this week, its first major convention in more than a year. “The sixth plenum will quite possibly be a manifesto from Xi Jinping as he adopts the mantle of effective leader for life,” said Kyle Rodda, an analyst at IG Markets Ltd. “His agenda and rhetoric will be important, with investors nervous about what comes out about China’s strategic and economic direction.”  Over in Japan, a morning rally in Japanese stocks gave way to profit-taking for a second day, even as SoftBank Group surged on its latest buyback announcement. Electronics and chemical makers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 0.8%, reversing an early 0.7% gain. Fast Retailing was the biggest contributor to a 0.8% decline in the Nikkei 225. The yen was up 0.4% against the dollar, in its forth day of advance. SoftBank jumped more than 10% after it said it will repurchase as much as 1 trillion yen ($8.8 billion) of its stock. Its climb helped drive Japanesestocks higher in early trading, after the S&P 500 rose to a new record high. “Futures were sold after the open as investors moved to book profits with the Nikkei 225 approaching 30,000,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, a strategist at Nomura Asset Management in Tokyo. “There is a lack of catalysts for further gains, and the stronger yen is also limiting the upside.” Australian stocks edged lower, weighed down by bank. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.2% to close at 7,434.20, with banks contributing the most to its drop. Eight of the benchmark’s 11 subgauges declined, while miners rallied. Inghams tumbled to its lowest price since May 27. Chalice Mining surgend after reporting its maiden Mineral Resource Estimate for the Gonneville Deposit at Julimar. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.4% to 13,090.58. In rates, USTs bull steepened, returning to Asia’s richest levels after speculation about a dovish change in leadership at the Fed. Treasuries advance across the curve, following wider gains across bunds; a bull-flattening move during Europe session was extended after Netherlands 2038 auction. Gilts long-end also well bid, adding support for Treasuries. Focal points for U.S. session include Fed’s Powell speaking at 9am ET, 10-year note auction at 1pm. Treasury yields were richer by 2bp-3bp across the curve, with curve spreads broadly within 1bp of Monday’s close; bunds outperform by ~1bp in the 10-year sector while long-end gilt yields are ~5bp lower on the day. Long-end Germany outperforms gilts and USTs, richening ~4bps. Peripheral spreads tighten with 10y Bund/BTP near 112bps. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to its lowest level this month and Treasuries rallied following the report that Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard was interviewed for the top job at the central bank, with speculation that a Brainard-led Fed would be more dovish than that of current Chair Jerome Powell. The dollar was weaker against most of its Group-of-10 peers while the yen was among the top performers as traders wound back bets on higher global central- bank interest rates; the euro briefly rose above the $1.16 level before erasing gains. JPY tops the leaderboard with USD/JPY remaining sub-113. Cable briefly regains a 1.36-handle. In commodities, Crude futures push higher after a subdued Asia session. WTI adds 0.9% to trade near $82.60, Brent regains a $84-handle. Spot gold is range bound near $1,825/oz. Base metals hold modest gains with LME zinc the marginal outperformer Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases includethe US PPI reading for October, along with that month’s NFIB small business optimism index. Over in Germany, there’s also the ZEW survey for November and the trade balance for September. Central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey and PBoC Governor Yi Gang, along with the ECB’s Panetta, Rehn, Knot and Schnabel, the Fed’s Bullard, Daly and Kashkari, and BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,693.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 484.28 MXAP little changed at 198.97 MXAPJ up 0.3% to 649.50 Nikkei down 0.8% to 29,285.46 Topix down 0.8% to 2,018.77 Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 24,813.13 Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,507.00 Sensex down 0.3% to 60,381.61 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,434.20 Kospi little changed at 2,962.46 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.26% Euro little changed at $1.1588 Brent Futures up 0.7% to $83.99/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,824.68 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.96 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Just weeks ago, Wall Street analysts and central bankers were quick to assure investors that a collapse by China Evergrande Group wouldn’t be a Lehman moment. Regulators in Beijing said that the crisis would be “contained.” Now that a bond selloff has spread to China’s entire real estate sector and beyond, concern is growing about the potential risk to the global financial system The Federal Reserve warned that fragility in China’s commercial real-estate sector could spread to the U.S. if it deteriorates dramatically, as investor focus turns to China Evergrande Group’s next bond payment deadlines Japan ruling Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito agree to give 50,000 yen in cash and 50,000 yen in coupons for every child 18 or younger, Kyodo reports, without attribution Boris Johnson is struggling to repress the U.K. backlash over his defense of a ruling party lawmaker who broke lobbying rules, as his government was openly accused of corruption in Parliament and even typically friendly newspapers took aim at his ruling Conservative Party Bitcoin jumped past $68,000 for the first time to a new all-time high, part of a wider recent rally in the cryptocurrency sector. The climb in cryptocurrencies overall has taken their combined value above $3 trillion. Bitcoin hit its October record following the launch of the first Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded fund for U.S. investors A more detailed look at global markets from Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded indecisively as focus centred on earnings and despite the positive handover from Wall St where the S&P 500 notched an 8th consecutive record close amid a lack of catalysts to derail the momentum in stocks. ASX 200 (-0.2%) began marginally higher amid strength in the tech and mining sectors but with upside eventually reversed by losses in the top-weighted financial industry as NAB shares declined despite posting a 77% jump in FY cash earnings and its FY net more than doubled to AUD 6.4bln, although this was still short of some analysts’ forecasts and the Co. also noted that competitive pressures are expected to continue in FY22. Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) was choppy amid a slew of earnings releases with outperformance in SoftBank following its H1 results in which net income declined by more than 80%, but revenue increased and it confirmed a JPY 1tln share buyback. It was also reported that PM Kishida instructed COVID measures to be compiled this week and economic measures by next Friday, while a government panel recommended tax breaks for companies that increase wages, although Tokyo stocks have failed to benefit with early momentum offset by recent flows into the JPY. Hang Seng (-0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) lacked firm direction amid mixed developer related headlines with Kaisa Group said to be taking several measures to solve liquidity issues and have pleaded for more time and patience from investors, while China Evergrande reportedly scraped together more cash by offloading a 5.7% stake in HengTen Networks for USD 145mln. Furthermore, the PBoC continued with its liquidity efforts but recent source reports noted that chances of a PBoC rate cut looks slim and that the PBoC is expected to be cautious in easing monetary policy amid stagflation concerns. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat amid the indecisive mood in stocks and was only briefly supported from the improvement across most metrics at the latest 30yr JGB auction. Top Asian News Gold Rally Pauses as Focus Turns to Upcoming Inflation Data Indonesia Bonds Risk Losing Key Support as Outflows Surge Nissan Raises Profit Outlook Despite Supply Disruptions Fed Warns of Woes Spreading as Deadline Looms: Evergrande Update After a soft open, European equities trade in close proximity to the unchanged mark (Eurostoxx 50 +0.1%) with incremental newsflow relatively light thus far with a mixed German ZEW report unable to shift the dial. The handover from the Asia-Pac session was a mixed one with the region unable to benefit from the positive tailwinds on Wall St. Stateside, futures are near-enough unchanged with participants tentative ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI release which is expected to see Y/Y CPI rise to 5.8% from 5.4%. For the Stoxx 600, UBS’ announced today that its end-2022 target is at 520 which would mark around 8% of upside from current levels. In terms of a regional breakdown, UBS upgraded Italy to overweight from underweight whilst holding Germany and the UK as overweight. Sectors in Europe are a mixed bag with Autos outperforming peers as Renault (+4.6%) sits at the top of the CAC in the wake of Nissan earnings, which the Co. says will have a positive impact on its Q3 earnings. Basic Resources, Retail and Media names are also faring well. To the downside, Insurance names are on a softer footing following earnings from Munich Re (-3.4%) with the Co. warning of further COVID-related losses, whilst results have also hampered the performance of Direct Line (-2.6%). Bayer (+2.6%) is one of the better performers in Germany after beating revenue and EBITDA expectations and guiding FY EPS higher. Associated British Foods (+6.5%) is the best performer in the Stoxx 600 after announcing a special dividend alongside results. Finally, other strong stocks in the UK include Rolls Royce (+5.4%) after confirming it has received funding for small modular nuclear reactors, whilst BT (+2.9%) is seen higher after being upgraded to buy from hold at Berenberg. Top European News UniCredit to Take $1.9 Billion Charge From Yapi Kredi Sale Russia’s Gazprom Says Gas Will Flow Into EU Storage This Month European Gas Prices Slide on Some Signs of Higher Russian Flows Polish Key Rate Hikes Past 1.5% May Be Needed, MPC’s Sura Says In FX, the Yen and Dollar are locked around the 113.00 mark after the former extended its mainly technical rally to around 112.73 before running out of steam, and this has given the Greenback in general some breathing space as the index claws back declines from a slightly deeper 93.872 post-NFP low to retest resistance at the psychological 94.000 level. However, Usd/Jpy and Yen crosses are still trending lower following clear breaches of several key chart supports that will now form upside barriers, such as Fibs in the headline pair spanning 113.20-30, while the Buck and DXY retain a bearish tone following their sharp retracement from a new y-t-d high in the case of the former last Friday. Ahead, US PPI data provides a timely inflation gauge for CPI on Wednesday, while there is another array of Fed speakers and more supply to absorb as Usd 39 bn 10 year notes are up for auction. GBP - Sterling continues to regroup in wake of the BoE shock, with Cable cresting 1.3600 and even Eur/Gbp unwinding gains towards 0.8520 amidst ongoing Brexit angst that could reach another critical stage by the end of this week given reports that the EU is formulating a package of short/medium-term retaliatory measures which might be presented by Sefcovic to Frost on Friday, to dissuade the UK from triggering Article 16, according to Eurasia Group's Rahman. Note, however, the cross may be underpinned by decent option expiry interest at the 0.8500 strike (1 bn), if not mere sentimentality. AUD/NZD - Some reasons for the Aussie to reverse recent underperformance vs the Kiwi down under, as NAB business confidence and conditions both improved markedly in October, while consumer sentiment ticked up as a counterweight to an acceleration in NZ electronic card consumption, with Aud/Usd firmly back on the 0.7400 handle, Aud/Nzd rebounding from sub-1.0350 and Nzd/Usd hovering midway between 0.7148-74 parameters. CAD/EUR/CHF - All narrowly divergent vs their US counterpart, as the Loonie gleans traction from a Usd 1/brl rebound in WTI to bounce through 1.2450 and away from 1.1 bn option expiries at 1.2460 in advance of another speech from BoC Governor Macklem, while the Euro is weighing up a mixed ZEW survey against expectations in close proximity to 1.1600 and also ‘comfortably’ above 1.8 bn expiry interest down at 1.1550. Elsewhere, the Franc is keeping its head afloat of 0.9150 and 1.0600 vs the Euro awaiting remarks from the SNB via Maechler and Moser about the changing FX market and implications for the Swiss Central Bank on Thursday. In commodities, WTI and Brent are firmer this morning though the benchmarks have drifted off earlier highs as we approach the entrance of US participants. At best, Brent has surpassed the USD 84.00/bbl mark, a figure which eluded it yesterday, and WTI has been within reach of the USD 83.00/bbl mark. Fresh newsflow explicitly for the complex has been slim but we are, more so than usual, looking to the EIA STEO due at 17:00GMT/12:00EST today. Heightened attention on this stems from US Energy Secretary Granholm commenting earlier in the week that President Biden may make an announcement in relation to crude and the SPR this week; as such, administration officials will be scrutinising the STEO report. For reference, the OPEC+ MOMR and IEA OMR are due on November 11th and 16th respectively. October’s STEO upgraded world 2021 oil demand growth forecasts by 90k but cut the 2022 view by 150k while highlighting that US crude output is to fall 260k vs prev. 200k fall in 2021. As usual, we do have the Private Inventory report due today as well with expectations set for a headline build of 1.9mln. Moving to metals, spot gold and silver are once again lacklustre and remain comfortably within overnight ranges and the upside seen in the metals at the tail-end of last week means we are circa, for spot gold, USD 30/oz from a cluster of DMAs. Elsewhere, base metals are firmer given the support for industrial names on the US infrastructure bill, but the likes of LME copper remain within familiar ranges. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Oct. PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1% 8:30am: Oct. PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, est. 6.2%, prior 5.9% 8:30am: Oct. PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 6.8%, prior 6.8% 8:30am: Oct. PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 8.6%, prior 8.6% 8:30am: Oct. PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.2% 8:30am: Oct. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.5% Central Banks 7:50am: Fed’s Bullard Takes Part in Virtual Event 9am: Powell to Speak at Joint Fed, ECB and BoC Diversity Conference 9am: ECB’s Knot, Fed’s Bullard on UBS Panel 11:35am: Fed’s Daly Speaks at NABE Conference 1:30pm: Fed’s Kashkari Takes Part in Moderated Discussion DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Thanks for all your well wishes yesterday. It was very kind to have a few hundred take the time to email. If you missed it, see yesterday’s EMR to understand why my responsibilities have mounted this week. The latest is that I’ve now got two perfect night’s sleep while my wife who is sleeping by my daughter’s side at hospital on a camp bed all week got hardly any the first night. Nurses coming in every hour, lots of machines beeping, it being too hot and no privacy. A look at my WhatsApp this morning shows she was last seen at 3.58am, so I’m worried I’m going to hear about a repeat. Although I will want to know who she’s whatsApping at that time of the night! There wasn’t an awful lot of newsflow for investors yesterday as they looked forward to tomorrow’s US CPI release, but the astonishing equity advance showed no signs of relenting just yet, with the S&P 500 (+0.09%) up for an 8th consecutive session to another record high. For reference, that’s the longest winning streak since April 2019, and if we get a 9th day in the green today, that would mark the longest run of consecutive gains since November 2004, back when George W. Bush had just beaten John Kerry to win a second term. It's also 17 out of 19 days up, which hasn’t happened since December 1971. All these records for various equity indices might seem jarring when you consider that there are still strong inflationary pressures in the pipeline, and with them the prospect of a renewed hawkish shift by central banks. However, the prevalent view among economists (which continues to influence investors) remains that those pressures will prove transitory and we’ll see price pressures diminish as we move through next year, hence enabling a steady lift-off in rates from central banks. Obviously it remains to be seen if that proves correct, but that’s still the prevailing view. And even though Covid-19 cases have begun to rise again in many countries, not least in Europe, the positive news from both Merck and Pfizer about a new pill that reduces hospitalisations and deaths offers societies another tool alongside vaccines to help prevent the overwhelming of healthcare systems going forward. And on top of all that, we’ve had a further dose of optimism from the latest payrolls data on Friday, which saw an above-consensus print along with positive revisions to previous months. With that in mind, it was another day of records across the board yesterday, with the NASDAQ (+0.07%), the Dow Jones (+0.29%), and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.04%) all ascending to fresh highs of their own. Cyclicals tended to outperform, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.23%) was yet another index that hit an all-time high. Not even Tesla declining -4.84% after Elon Musk’s weekend Twitter poll over whether he should sell 10% of his stake was enough to derail things. Materials led the pack (+1.23%) with energy (+0.88%) close behind thanks to a fresh boost in commodity prices. By the close of trade, Brent Crude was up another +0.83% to $83.43/bbl, so still beneath its peak from a couple of weeks ago, but very much remaining in the range above $80/bbl that we’ve seen since the start of October. For sovereign bonds, however, the rally from late last week reversed, 5yr US Treasuries increased +6.1bps, bringing them back above last Thursday’s close, while yields on 10yr US Treasuries were up +3.8bps to 1.49%. Both were entirely driven by higher inflation breakevens, as 5yr and 10yr breakevens both increased +7.1bps. 10yr real yields sank -3.4bps to -1.13%, putting them less than 10bps away from their intraday low back in August of -1.220%. Over in Europe, it was much the same story of higher nominal yields thanks to rising inflation expectations, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.7bps), OATs (+3.6bps) and BTPs (+1.7bps) all ending the session higher. Overnight in Asia stocks are trading in the red with the Shanghai Composite (-0.02%), Hang Seng (-0.07%), CSI (-0.30%), KOSPI (-0.29%) and the Nikkei (-0.66%) all down. In Japan, wages grew at +0.2% year-on-year in September (vs +0.6% consensus) and real wages actually fell -0.6% as prices rose faster. The new Prime Minister Kishida is expected to announce a stimulus package to boost Japan's recovery in an effort to shore up wages. Staying in Asia, strains on global supply chains continue with Bangladeshi truckers continuing their strike from Friday over a 23% hike in diesel prices. Protests are intensifying as diesel shortages have already sent prices upwards of 64% this year. Futures are indicating that the winning streak in the US and Europe might be under threat with S&P 500 futures (-0.25%) and DAX futures (-0.28%) both down. With all eyes on when we might get some news about the various Fed positions, another place opened up on the Board yesterday after Randal Quarles said that he would be resigning his position as a Governor at the end of December. Quarles had also been Vice Chair for Supervision, though his four-year term for that post came to an end last month. Quarles’ departure from the Fed Board means that there’s now another position at the Fed for President Biden to fill, with Jay Powell’s term as chair concluding in February, Vice Chair Clarida’s position on the board concluding at the end of January, and an additional vacant post on the Board on top of those. Staying on the Fed, yesterday we had the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations from the new York Fed, which showed that one-year inflation expectations hit a series high of 5.7%, while the 3-year inflation expectations remained at a joint-series high of 4.2%. Separately, we also heard from Vice Chair Clarida, who reiterated his belief that the necessary conditions “for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022.” The Fed also released its bi-annual Financial Stability Report after the closing bell last night. Timely, considering the record run equities have been on, the report noted that “asset prices remain vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk sentiment deteriorate, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the economic recovery stall.” Other key risks the report mentions include stablecoins, retail-fuelled volatility, and structural vulnerabilities in money market funds. While on structural vulnerabilities, the Inter-Agency Working Group, five key US regulators, also released a progress report on potential Treasury market reforms. There are a number of reforms being considered; what is ultimately adopted will have a sizable impact on the shape of the Treasury market and demand for Treasury securities. To the day ahead now, and data releases includethe US PPI reading for October, along with that month’s NFIB small business optimism index. Over in Germany, there’s also the ZEW survey for November and the trade balance for September. Central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey and PBoC Governor Yi Gang, along with the ECB’s Panetta, Rehn, Knot and Schnabel, the Fed’s Bullard, Daly and Kashkari, and BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent. Tyler Durden Tue, 11/09/2021 - 08:08.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytNov 9th, 2021

Three Sure-fire Ways to Lose Money Investing in SPACs

On its face, the special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, would seem to be one of the safest investment products ever invented by the money spinners of Wall Street. An investor ponies up $10 to purchase a “unit” that includes one share of common stock plus a fraction of a warrant, a “right,” or some […] On its face, the special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, would seem to be one of the safest investment products ever invented by the money spinners of Wall Street. An investor ponies up $10 to purchase a “unit” that includes one share of common stock plus a fraction of a warrant, a “right,” or some other derivative freebie. Rather than handing that cash over to some wild-eyed visionary to invest in robo-helicopters or houses in the Hamptons, the investor’s capital is safely locked in a vault earning interest where it cannot be touched. Once the SPAC has raised a few hundred million through an IPO (or a couple billion if you are Bill Ackman), then the SPAC team scours the globe searching for the world’s most fantastic robo-copter designer, interplanetary tourism company, or cure for cancer. Or whatever. Once they secure their prize, SPAC investors get to vote yea or nay if the deal should go forward. Separately, each investor can elect whether to receive stock in the new corporate confection or redeem to get back their share of cash held in an ironclad trust. Either way, investors get to hang onto the warrants and sell those at a profit should the stock later soar skywards. Sounds close to foolproof, right? That’s what many hedge funds certainly thought, as they gorged on SPAC IPOs in 2020 and early 2021, using leverage to goose returns on what was essentially a treasury bill with an embedded option to convert to equity. But as the SPAC party started to get going, and more and more bold-faced names started to swan through with glittering SPACs on their arms, the SEC became nervous that things were getting out of hand. It is one thing when a balding, jowly private equity jockey pontificates about EBITDA synergies. But when Serena Williams gets amped about building rocket engines and Shaquille O’Neal contemplates nuptials with IPO-gone-wrong WeWork, there may be some headier intoxicants wafting through the air. For this reason, the SEC has unfurled more red flags than a Chinese Army parade about risks retail investors should consider with SPACs here, here, and here. Despite the apparent safety of the SPAC structure, there are still several ways that investors can get their fingers burnt with this product. Some of the more popular ways to get wiped out result from a lack of understanding of the basic structure or a compulsion to run with the herd right before it heads off a cliff. Wait for the SPAC to run up on rumors and then purchase the common stock. Theoretically, negotiations between a SPAC and a potential merger partner should be conducted in absolute confidence. Unfortunately, consummating one of these corporate marriages is not as simple as hiring a coach and a country priest. There are multiple investment banks and advisors involved. The potential deal is marketed “confidentially” to dozens of fund managers and industry players to ladle more cash into the coffers through a PIPE. And all these people are in the business of sharing information and incentivized to see the share price move up. In the case of Churchill Capital Group IV, the stock went parabolic to $58 per share on rumors of a merger with luxury electric car maker Lucid Motors but then tumbled back again to the low 20s as soon as the deal was announced. Why? Perhaps investors questioned if ascribing a valuation in the tens of billions to an auto company that has yet to produce a car was a smart thing to do? Or maybe they noticed that the institutions investing in the PIPE were picking up their shares for $15? Hard to say. But the lesson on how to invest in SPACs is clear. If you bought the IPO unit and sold anywhere between the height of $58 and the mid-$20s where it trades today, Lucid has been an extremely profitable trade. But a momentum investor who piled into the stock based on rumors in the weeks before it was announced probably got wiped out – even though the rumors, in this case, turned out to be true! Lessons learned: You are almost always better off investing in SPACs by purchasing the unit at the IPO. Avoid buying SPACs that trade at a significant premium to trust value before the company has even announced a deal that can be evaluated on its merits. Invest “alongside” famous people. Let’s be honest: stock picking is not all about dispassionately analyzing returns. There is an electric thrill about feeling part of the “smart money” and an exclusive club. What could be more exciting than telling your neighbors or, more realistically, fellow Reddit bros that you are “in business” with a star-studded name on the latest SPAC merger? When Subversive Capital Acquisition Corp. announced it was merging with JAY-Z’s vertically integrated cannabis company, the stock blazed up to $12.85 as investors visualized blasting returns alongside Rhianna, Roc Nation, and DJ Khaled. But as that buzz wore off, the stock traded down to under $4 as The Parent Company (with the apt ticker, GRAMF) smoked a considerable portion of its cash in its first quarter of operations. Former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan’s SPAC, Executive Network Partnering Corp., soared to $50 a share in its IPO debut last November, but then quickly declined back to the $10 range and has yet to announce a deal. Even investing with a storied stock picker like Bill Ackman of Pershing Square is no guarantee of success. His Pershing Square Tontine Holdings ran up to the mid-30s as rumors swirled among Reddit “tontards” that he was wooing prize assets from Bloomberg to Stripe. But the stock traded back down to $20 once Ackman announced and then subsequently unwound a convoluted deal with Universal Music Group that no one seemed to like. The supreme master of leveraging a celebrity following to send stocks soaring is Chamath Palihapitiya. He brought a series of high-flying SPAC mergers to the market while positioning himself as a populist advocating for outsider individual investors. Virgin Galactic Holdings rocketed to $60 before succumbing to gravity and spiraling under $20, while Chamath sold out his entire position. To be fair, most of Chamath’s SPACs are still trading above the IPO price. Even Clover Health, accused of deceptive disclosures and investigated by the SEC, staged a recent rally to $22 on the prospect of a short squeeze — before collapsing again to $8. The most important thing to be aware of is that most of these celebrities are not investing in anything like the same terms as you. In the Virgin Galactic deal, Chamath had purchased his 13% stake of the combined company for $0.002 per share – which was how he converted an investment of $25,000 into hundreds of millions in wealth. SPAC sponsors and promoters have an asymmetric incentive where nearly any deal is better than no deal at all. While there is nothing wrong with buying SPACs associated with celebrities, be aware that they are probably on the “comp list” to this party and won’t be on the hook if the joint gets trashed. Buy SPAC warrants without reading the fine print. For more speculative investors, SPAC warrants can seem like a tantalizing way to take advantage of the inherent volatility of the high growth, high risk “moon shot” companies with which many SPACs merge. Typically, a SPAC warrant will provide the holder with the right to purchase shares in the combined company at $11.50 per share once the merger is completed. SPAC warrants have a life of five years, giving plenty of time for the fledgling company to show its mettle. And soon after the IPO, the warrants begin trading separately, often at relatively low prices. For investors with a high degree of enthusiasm for a SPAC story but limited funds, purchasing a warrant provides far more upside leverage than buying the common stock. As with many things SPAC-related, there is a catch, however. First, investors can only exercise SPAC warrants after the merger is consummated. For this reason, they often trade below intrinsic value due to the risk that investor enthusiasm will fade in the months between deal announcement and closing. Second, SPAC warrants come with a “call” feature, which allows the company to force holders to exercise their warrants if the stock trades above a specific price for a set amount of time. In most cases, this threshold is $18, and companies have a powerful incentive to redeem the warrants to clean up their capital structure. The call feature limits the upside that SPAC warrants provide if the stock takes off. In some cases, as in Clover Health’s recent redemption announcement, the stock needs only to be trading above $10 for 20 days within 30 days — meaning that the warrants may have no intrinsic value at all! Clover’s warrants had traded as high as $11 a few weeks before the announcement. Investors who purchased those warrants in June believing that a massive short squeeze was imminent have lost most of their stake. An even greater risk is that the company calls the warrants, and the holder fails to take action, in which case the warrants expire worthlessly. So, warrants provide a valuable kicker when investing in a SPAC IPO and can be a rewarding way to bet on high conviction SPAC merger deals. But those who ignore the fine print of these complex instruments are likely to be disappointed. In the past few years, SPACs have evolved to provide ordinary investors with access to potentially industry-changing, high-growth investments — formerly the exclusive preserve of late-stage venture and crossover funds. The backers of SPACs now include a selection of the most successful names from the worlds of private equity, M&A, and venture investing. While SPAC sponsors have a “blank check” to source a deal of their choosing, investors retain the valuable right to have their capital returned if they don’t like what sponsors present. By understanding the SPAC format’s essential structure and potential pitfalls, investors can dramatically reduce the potential for a catastrophic loss of this sometimes lucrative and infallibly entertaining asset class. Crocker Coulson is CEO of AUM Media, which advises SPAC sponsors and private companies considering going public through a SPAC merger. Updated on Sep 22, 2021, 6:03 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 22nd, 2021

Futures Flat Ahead Of Taper Accelerating Payrolls

Futures Flat Ahead Of Taper Accelerating Payrolls U.S. equity futures are flat, rebounding from an overnight slide following news that 5 "mild" Omicron cases were found in New York, and European stocks wavered at the end of a volatile week as traders waited for the latest jobs data to assess the likely pace of Federal Reserve tightening and accelerated tapering. Emini S&P futures traded in a narrow range, and were up 2 points or 0.04%, Nasdaq futures were flat,while Dow Jones futures were up 8 points. The dollar edged higher, along with the euro after ECB President Christine Lagarde said inflation will decline in 2022. Crude advanced after OPEC+ left the door open to changing the plan to raise output at short notice. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts fluctuated after dip-buyers Thursday fueled the S&P 500’s best climb since mid-October, a sign that some of the worst fears about the omicron virus strain are dissipating. That said, concerns about omicron are overshadowing economic news for now with “a lot of noise and very little meaningful information,” said Geir Lode, head of global equities at Federated Hermes in London. “The prospect of a faster monetary policy tightening could -- and should probably -- lead to a clear market reaction,” he said. “It is also another argument for why we assume value stocks outperform growth stocks. At the moment, however, investors’ attention is elsewhere.” In the latest U.S. data, jobless claims remained low, suggesting additional progress in the labor market. Traders are awaiting today's big event - the November payrolls numbers, which could shape expectations for the pace of Fed policy tightening (full preview here). Bloomberg Economics expects a strong report, while the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists predicts an increase of 550,000. “Assuming the omicron news remains less end-of-the-world, a print above 550,000 jobs should see the faster Fed-taper trade reassert itself,” Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note. “That may nip the equity rally in the bud, while the dollar and U.S. yields could resume rising.” In premarket trading, Didi Global Inc. jumped more than 14% in U.S. premarket trading before reversing all gains, after the Chinese ride-hailing giant said it began preparations to withdraw from U.S. stock exchanges. U.S. antitrust officials sued to block chipmaker Nvidia’s proposed $40 billion takeover of Arm, saying the deal would hobble innovation and competition. Elon Musk’s offloading of Tesla Inc. shares surpassed the $10 billion mark as he sold stock in the electric-car maker for the fourth consecutive week. Here are some of the other biggest U.S. movers today: DocuSign (DOCU US) plunges 32% in premarket trading as the e-signature company’s quarterly revenue forecast missed analysts’ estimates. JPMorgan and Piper Sandler cut ratings. Marvell Technology (MRVL US) shares rise 18% in premarket after the semiconductor company’s fourth-quarter forecast beat analyst estimates; Morgan Stanley notes “an exceptional quarter” with surprising outperformance from enterprise networking, strength in 5G and in cloud. Asana (ASAN US) shares slump 14% in premarket trading after results, with KeyBanc cutting the software firm’s price target on a reset in the stock’s valuation. Piper Sandler said that slight deceleration in revenue and billings growth could disappoint some investors. Zillow Group (ZG US) shares rise 8.8% in premarket after the online real-estate company announced a $750 million share repurchase program and said it has made “significant progress” on Zillow Offers inventory wind- down. Stitch Fix (SFIX US) jumped in premarket after Morgan Stanley raised its rating to equal-weight from underweight. Smartsheet (SMAR US) rose in postmarket trading after the software company boosted its revenue forecast for the full year; the guidance beat the average analyst estimate. National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ US) gained in postmarket trading after the drinks company announced a special dividend of $3 a share. Ollie’s Bargain (OLLI US) plunged 21% in U.S. premarket trading on Friday, after the company’s quarterly results and forecast disappointed, hurt by supply-chain troubles. Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI US) stock fell 15% in postmarket trading after adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter missed the average analyst estimate. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped as much as 0.2% before turning green with mining companies and carmakers underperforming and energy and utility stocks rising. Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB fell as much as 26% after private-equity firm Advent International and Singapore wealth fund GIC abandoned their $7.6 billion bid to buy the drugmaker. Volatility across assets remains elevated, reflecting the Fed’s shift toward tighter monetary settings and uncertainty about how the omicron outbreak will affect global reopening. The hope is that vaccines will remain effective or can be adjusted to cope. New York state identified at least five cases of omicron, which is continuing its worldwide spread, while the latest research shows the risk of reinfection with the new variant is three times higher than for others. “The environment in markets is changing,” Steven Wieting, chief investment strategist at Citigroup Private Bank, said on Bloomberg Television. “Monetary policy, fiscal policy are all losing steam. It doesn’t mean a down market. But it’s not going to be like the rebound, the sharp recovery that we had for almost every asset in the past year.” Earlier in the session, Asian stocks held gains from the past two days as travel and consumer shares rallied after their U.S. peers rebounded and a report said Merck & Co. is seeking to obtain approval of its Covid-19 pill in Japan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed after climbing as much as 0.3%, with Japan among the region’s best performers. South Korea’s benchmark had its biggest three-day advance since February, boosted by financial shares. Still, Asian stocks headed for a weekly loss as U.S. regulators moved a step closer to boot Chinese firms off American stock exchanges. The Hang Seng Tech Index slid as much as 2.7% to a new all time low, as Tencent Holdings and Alibaba Group Holding fell after Didi Global Inc. began preparations to withdraw its U.S. listing.  “While the risks of delisting have already been brought up previously, a step closer towards a final mandate seems to serve as a reminder for the regulatory risks in Chinese stocks,” said Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte. Asian stocks remain stuck near a one-year low, as the delisting issue damped sentiment already hurt by omicron and the Fed’s hawkish pivot. A U.S. payrolls report later today could give further clues on the pace of tightening Japanese equities rose, paring their weekly loss, helped by gains in economically sensitive names. Electronics makers reversed an early loss to become the biggest boost to the Topix, which gained 1.6%. Automakers and banks also gained, while reopening plays tracked a rebound in U.S. peers. Daikin and Recruit were the largest contributors to a 1% gain in the Nikkei 225, which erased a morning decline of as much as 0.6%. The Topix still dropped 1.4% on the week, extending the previous week’s 2.9% slide, amid concerns over the omicron coronavirus variant. Despite some profit-taking in tech stocks in the morning session, “the medium and long-term outlooks for these names continue to be really good,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. “The spread of the omicron variant doesn’t mean an across-the-board selloff for Japanese stocks.” India’s benchmark equity index recorded a weekly advance, partly recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by uncertainty around the new Covid variant, with investors focusing on the central bank’s monetary policy meeting from Monday.  The S&P BSE Sensex fell 1.3% to 57,696.46, but gained 1% for the week after declining for two weeks. The NSE Nifty 50 Index dropped 1.2%, the biggest one-day decline since Nov. 26. All but three of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. fell, led by a gauge of energy companies. “The focus seems to be shifting from premium Indian equities to relatively cheaper markets,” Shrikant Chouhan, head of retail equity search at Kotak Securities said in a note. The cautious mood in India was heightened by the “unenthusiastic” response to the IPO of Paytm, which was also the biggest public share sale in the country, and a resurgence of Covid concerns across Europe, he added.  Investors also focused on the country’s economic outlook, which is showing signs of improvement. Major data releases this week -- from economic expansion to tax collection -- showed robust growth. “Strong domestic indicators are playing a key role in driving the market amid negative global cues,” said Mohit Nigam, a fund manager with Hem Securities. But any further spread of the omicron strain in India may cap local equity gains, he said. Two cases of the new variant have been detected so far in the country. The market’s attention will shift to the Reserve Bank of India’s policy announcement on Dec. 8, after a three-day meeting from Monday. The panel is expected to leave record low interest rates unchanged as inflation remains within its target range. The economy faces new risks from the omicron variant after expanding 8.4% in the three months through September. Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, falling 3%. Out of 30 shares in the index, 26 fell and 4 gained. Australia stocks posted a fourth week of losses amid the Omicron threat even as the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.2% to close at 7,241.20, boosted by banks and miners. That trimmed the benchmark’s loss for the week to 0.5%, its fourth-straight weekly decline.  Corporate Travel was among the top performers, rising for a second session. TPG Telecom led the laggards, tumbling after media reports that founder David Teoh entered into an agreement to sell about 53.1 million shares in a block trade.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index was little changed at 12,676.50. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced and the greenback was higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers, with risk-sensitive Scandinavian and Antipodean currencies the worst performers. Turkish lira swings back to gain against the USD after central bank intervention for the 2nd time in 3 days. The pound weakened and gilt yields fell after Bank of England policy maker Michael Saunders urged caution on monetary tightening due to the potential effects of the omicron variant on the economy. The euro fell below $1.13 and some traders are starting to use option plays to express the view that the currency may extend its drop in coming month, yet recover in the latter part of 2022. The Aussie dropped for a fourth day amid concern U.S. payroll data due Friday may add to divergence between RBA and Fed monetary policy. Australia’s sale of 2024 bonds saw yields drop below those in the secondary market by the most on record. The yen weakened for a second day as the prospects for a faster pace of Fed tapering fans speculation of portfolio outflows from Japan. In rates, Treasury yields ticked lower, erasing some of Tuesday jump after Fed officials laid out the case for a faster removal of policy support amid high inflation.  Treasurys followed gilts during European morning, when Bank of England’s Saunders said the omicron variant is a key consideration for the December MPC decision which in turn lowered odds of a December BOE rate hike. Treasury yields are richer by up to 1.5bp across 10-year sector which trades around 1.43%; gilts outperform by ~1bp as BOE rate- hike premium for the December meeting was pared following Saunders comments. Shorter-term Treasury yields inched up, and the 2-year yield touched the highest in a week Friday’s U.S. session features a raft of data headed by the November jobs report due 8:30am ET where the median estimate is 550k while Bloomberg whisper number is 564k; October NFP change was 531k Crude futures extend Asia’s modest gains advanced after OPEC+ proceeded with an output hike but left room for quick adjustments due to a cloudy outlook, making shorting difficult. WTI added on ~2.5% to trade near $68.20, roughly near the middle of the week’s range. Brent recovers near $71.50. Spot gold fades a small push higher to trade near $1,770/oz. Most base metals are well supported with LME aluminum and zinc outperforming.  Looking at the day ahead, and the aforementioned US jobs report for November will be the highlight. Other data releases include the services and composite PMIs for November from around the world, Euro Area retail sales for October, and in addition from the US, there’s October’s factory orders and the November ISM services index. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde and chief economist Lane, the Fed’s Bullard and the BoE’s Saunders. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,574.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 466.43 MXAP little changed at 192.06 MXAPJ down 0.5% to 625.64 Nikkei up 1.0% to 28,029.57 Topix up 1.6% to 1,957.86 Hang Seng Index little changed at 23,766.69 Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,607.43 Sensex down 1.3% to 57,692.90 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,241.17 Kospi up 0.8% to 2,968.33 Brent Futures up 3.3% to $71.97/bbl Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,767.28 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.14% to 96.29 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.37% Euro down 0.1% to $1.1286 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg “I see an inflation profile which looks like a hump” and “we know how painful it is,” ECB President Christine Lagarde says at event Friday. She also said that “when the conditions of our forward guidance are satisfied, we won’t be hesitant to act” and that an interest rate increase in 2022 is very unlikely The betting window is open in the fixed-income market as hedge funds and other traders hunt for mispriced risk heading into 2022 -- whether it’s predictions for accelerating inflation or rising interest rates The U.K. Municipal Bonds Agency aims to sell the first ethical bonds on behalf of local governments early next year. The body, set up to help U.K. councils access capital markets, is looking to issue a couple of sustainable bonds in the first quarter of 2022, according to officials advising on the sales. It expects to follow that with a pooled ethical bond to raise money for a group of different local authorities Low- income countries indebted to Chinese commercial and policy banks could buy specially-created Chinese government bonds and then use these as collateral to support the sale of new yuan debt, Zhou Chengjun, head of the People’s Bank of China’s finance research institute, wrote in an article published in the ChinaBond Magazine Chinese tech shares briefly touched their record lows in Hong Kong, as Didi Global Inc.’s announcement to start U.S. delisting and rising scrutiny on mainland firms traded there dealt a further blow to already soured sentiment The yuan is set to weaken for the first time in three years in 2022, as capital inflows are expected to slow amid a shrinking yield gap between China and the U.S., a Bloomberg survey shows Turkish inflation accelerated for a sixth month in November to the highest level in three years, driven by a slump in the lira that continues to cloud consumer price outlook A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equities eventually traded mostly higher following the cyclical-led rebound in the US, but with the mood in the region tentative as Omicron uncertainty lingered after further cases of the new variant were reported stateside and with the latest NFP data drawing near. ASX 200 (+0.2%) lacked direction as resilience in cyclicals was offset by underperformance in defensives and amid ongoing COVID-19 concerns which prompted the Western Australian government to widen its state border closure to include South Australia. Nikkei 225 (+1.0%) was initially subdued amid recent currency inflows and with SoftBank among the worst performers amid several negative headlines including the FTC suing to block the Nvidia acquisition of Arm from SoftBank, while the Japanese conglomerate also suffered from its exposure in “super app” Grab which tumbled 20% in its New York debut and with Didi to start delisting from the NYSE in favour of a Hong Kong listing, although the index eventually recovered losses in latter half of trade. Hang Seng (-0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) were varied with US-listed Chinese companies pressured as the US SEC moved closer to delisting Chinese ADRs for failing to comply with disclosure requirements, while the mood across developers was also glum with Kaisa shares at a record low after its bond exchange offer to avert a default was rejected by bondholders and China Aoyuan Property Group slumped by double-digit percentages following its warning of an inability to repay USD 651.2mln of debt due to a liquidity crunch. Furthermore, participants digested the latest Caixin Services and Composite PMI data which slowed from the prior month, but both remained in expansion territory and with reports that advisors are to recommend lowering China’s economic growth target to 5.0%-5.5% or above 5%, fanning hopes for looser policy. Finally, 10yr JGBs gained and made another incursion above 152.00 with prices supported amid the cautious mood in Japan and with the BoJ also present in the market today for a total of JPY 1.05tln of JGBs heavily concentrated in 1yr-5yr maturities. Top Asian News Astra Said to Sink Advent’s $7.6 Billion Buyout of Biotech Sobi BOJ Is Said to See Omicron as Potential Reason to Keep Covid Aid Kaisa Swap Rejected, Developer Bonds Slide: Evergrande Update Permira Is Said to Near Deal for U.K. Blood Plasma Lab BPL The positivity seen heading into the European open dissipated as the session went underway, with the region seeing more of a mixed configuration in cash markets (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%; Stoxx 600 Unch) – with no clear drivers in the run-up to the US jobs report. The release will be carefully watching measures of labour market slack to gauge the progress towards the Fed's 'three tests' for rate hikes, whilst the Fed appears almost certain to announce a quickening in the pace of asset purchase tapering at its December meeting (Full NFP preview available in the Newsquawk Research Suite). The recent downside in Europe also seeps into the US futures, with the RTY (-0.2%), NQ (-0.2%) and ES (-0.3%) posting broad-based losses as things stand. Sectors have shifted from the earlier firm cyclical layout to one of a more defensive nature, with Healthcare, Food & Beverages, and Personal & Household Goods making their way up the ranks. Travel & Leisure still sits in the green but largely owed to sector heavyweight Evolution (+6.3%) as the group is to acquire its own shares in Nasdaq Stockholm. Oil & Gas sits as the current winner as crude markets claw back a bulk of this week's losses. On the flip side, Basic Resources are hit as iron ore tumbled overnight. In terms of individual movers, Dassault Aviation (+8.0%) shares soared after France signed a deal with the UAE worth some EUR 17bln. Allianz (+1.0%) stays in the green after entering a reinsurance agreement with Resolution Life and affiliates of Sixth Street for its US fixed index annuity portfolio, with the transaction to unlock USD 4.1bln in value. Top European News U.K. Nov. Composite PMI 57.6 vs Flash Reading 57.7 The Chance of a BOE Rate Hike This Month Has Fallen: BofA’s Wood AP Moller Holding Agrees to Buy Diagnostics Company Unilabs Permira Is Said to Near Deal for U.K. Blood Plasma Lab BPL In FX, it’s debatable whether this month’s US jobs data will carry as much weight as normal given that Fed rhetoric in the run up to the pre-FOMC blackout period has effectively signalled a faster pace of tapering and the likelihood of more hawkishly aligned dot plots. However, the latest BLS report could be influential in terms of shaping the tightening path once QE has been withdrawn, as markets continue to monitor unfolding COVID-19 developments with the main focus on vaccine efficacy against the new Omicron variant. In the meantime, Buck bulls have resurfaced to lift the index more firmly back above 96.000 and towards loftier levels seen earlier this week within a 96.075-324 range, eyeing Monday’s 96.448 peak ahead of the semi-psychological 96.500 mark and then the w-t-d best at 96.647 set the day after. Back to Friday’s agenda, Fed’s Bullard is due to speak and the services ISM rounds off the week. AUD/NZD - The high betas are bearing the brunt of Greenback gains, but also bearish technical forces as the Aussie and Kiwi both lose sight of key chart and simple round number levels that were keeping them afloat or declines relatively contained at least. Aud/Usd is now probing 0.7050 and a Fib retracement just above, while Nzd/Usd is hovering around 0.6775 as the Aud/Nzd cross holds in the low 1.0400 zone. JPY/CAD/CHF/GBP/EUR - All softer vs their US counterpart, with the Yen looking towards 113.50 for support with added protection from option expiry interest up to 113.60 in 1.1 bn, while the Loonie is relying on WTI to maintain recovery momentum before Canada and the US go head-to-head in the employment stakes. Usd/Cad is meandering in the low 1.2800 area as the crude benchmark regains Usd 68+/brl status from a sub-Usd 66.50 base and even deeper trough below Usd 62.50 in knee-jerk response to OPEC+ sticking to its output plan yesterday. Elsewhere, the Franc continues to straddle 0.9200, Sterling has retreated from 1.3300+ terrain again post-fractionally softer than forecast final UK services and composite PMIs, whilst a less hawkish speech from BoE hawk Saunders took Cable to a session low of 1.3255 and a 15bps Dec hike pricing fell from 51% to 26%. The Euro has also reversed from recent highs beyond 1.1300 amidst rather mixed Eurozone readings and pretty routine ECB rhetoric from President Lagarde plus GC members Knot, de Cos and de Guindos. In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures continue to nurse losses seen earlier this week, with the post-OPEC downside completely erased alongside some more. To recap, oil contracts were under pressure from compounding COVID headlines at the start of the week and in the run-up to OPEC+ whereby ministers opted to keep production plans despite the Omicron variant and the recent SPR releases. Delving deeper into these themes, desks suggest that a dominant Omicron variant could actually be positive if the strain turns out to be milder than some of its predecessors – with the jury still out but initial reports from India and South Africa suggesting so. Regarding OPEC+, some oil traders suggest the move to maintain plans was more of a political strategy as opposed to an attempt to balance markets, with journalists also suggesting that tensions with the US have simmered down and the prospect of further SPR releases have significantly declined. Further, it's also worth bearing in mind that due to maintenance and underinvestment, the real output hike from OPEC+ producers will likely be under the 400k BPD. In terms of Iranian developments, updates have been less constructive, with sources suggesting that Iran is holding a tougher stance than during the June talks. Negotiations will break today and resume next week. Crude contracts are modestly lower on the week and well-off worst levels, with Brent Feb now back around USD 71.50/bbl (65.72-77.02 weekly range), while WTI Jan resides around USD north of USD 68/bbl (62.43-72.93/bbl). Elsewhere, spot gold and silver vary, with the former finding some overnight support around USD 1,766/oz as risk sentiment erred lower, whilst the cluster of DMAs remain around the USD 1,790-91/oz region. In terms of base metals, LME copper is flat on either side of USD 9,500/t. Overnight, Dalian iron ore futures fell amid a decline in mill demand, whilst China's steel hub Tangshan city is to launch a second-level pollution alert from December 3-10th, the local government said – providing further headwinds for iron demand. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Nov. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 550,000, prior 531,000 Nov. Change in Private Payrolls, est. 525,000, prior 604,000 Nov. Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 45,000, prior 60,000 8:30am: Nov. Unemployment Rate, est. 4.5%, prior 4.6% Nov. Underemployment Rate, prior 8.3% Nov. Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 61.7%, prior 61.6% 8:30am: Nov. Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 5.0%, prior 4.9% Nov. Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4% Nov. Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.7, prior 34.7 9:45am: Nov. Markit US Composite PMI, prior 56.5 Nov. Markit US Services PMI, est. 57.0, prior 57.0 10am: Oct. Factory Orders, est. 0.5%, prior 0.2% Oct. Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. 0.6%, prior 0.7% Oct. Durable Goods Orders, est. -0.5%, prior -0.5% Oct. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.3% Oct. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.6% 10am: Nov. ISM Services Index, est. 65.0, prior 66.7 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I got great news yesterday. It was the school Xmas Fayre last weekend and at one stall we had to guess the weight of the school duck that lives in their pond. I spent a long time analysing it outside and was trying to mentally compare it to the weights of my various dumbbells at home. I learnt yesterday that I’d won. My prize? A rubber duck for the bath. In more trivial news I also learnt I was voted no.1 analyst in four categories of the Global Institutional Investor Fixed Income Analyst awards for 2021. So many thanks for all who voted. It is very much appreciated. However in terms of physical mementoes of my achievements yesterday, all I actually have to show for it is a brown rubber duck. Guessing the weight of a duck is a walk in the park at the moment compared to predicting markets. Indeed it’s been a wild week. If you’ve managed to time all the various swings you can surely only have done it via a time machine. If you have done so without one though I will happily hand over my prized rubber duck. By the close of trade, the S&P 500 (+1.42%) had begun to recover following its worst 2-day performance in over a year. The VIX index of volatility ticked back down beneath the 30 mark again, but finished above 25 for the fourth day in five for the first time since December of last year. Meanwhile Oil plunged and then soared on OPEC+ news and curves continued to flatten as 2yr yields got back close to their pre-Omicron levels after a near 20bps round journey over the last week. I’m glad I’m a research analyst not a day trader, and that’s before we get to today’s payrolls print. We’ll start with Omicron, where yesterday predictably saw a number of new countries report confirmed cases for the first time, as well as a second case in the United States during market hours, this one with roots in New York City, which reported more than 11,300 new cases yesterday, the highest daily count since January. After the market closed, an additional five cases were identified in New York, which sent futures over -0.5% lower at the time. They are back to flat as we type possibly helped by a late deal and vote in Congress to fund the US government through to February 18th and avert a shutdown at midnight tonight. Back to the virus and governments continued to ramp up their defence measures, with Germany yesterday announcing a range of fresh restrictions as they grapple with the latest wave, including a requirement that you must either be vaccinated or have recovered from Covid in order to get into restaurants or non-essential stores. There’s also set to be a parliamentary vote on mandatory vaccinations, and incoming Chancellor Scholz said that he expected it to pass. In the US, President Biden announced new measures to fight the impending winter wave and spreading Omicron variant, including tighter testing guidelines for international visitors, wider availability of at home tests, whilst accelerating efforts to get the rest of the world vaccinated. Over in South Africa, the daily case count rose further yesterday, with 11,535 reported, up from 8,561 the previous day and 4,373 the day before that. So definitely one to keep an eye on as we look for clues about what this could mean for the world more broadly. That said, we’re still yet to get the all-important information on how much less or more deadly this might be, as well as how effective vaccines still are and the extent to which it is more transmissible relative to other variants. Back to markets, and the revival in risk appetite led to a fresh selloff in US Treasuries, with the 2yr yield up +6.7bps, and the 10yr yield up +3.7bps. Nevertheless, as mentioned at the top, the latest round of curve flattening has sent the 2s10s slope to its flattest since before the Georgia Senate seat runoff gave Democrats control of Congress. It’s now at just +82.0bps, whilst the 5s30s slope is now at flattest since March 2020, at +55.0bps. So a warning sign for those who believe in the yield curve as a recessionary indicator, albeit with some way to go before that flashes red. In Europe there was also a modest curve flattening, but yields moved lower across the board, with those on 10yr bunds (-2.6bps), OATs (-3.2bps) and BTPs (-5.6bps) all down by the close. Over in equities, there was a decent rebound in the US following the recent selloff, with the S&P 500 (+1.42%) posting a solid gain. It was a very broad-based advance, with over 90% of the index’s members moving higher for the first time since mid-October. Every S&P sector increased, which was enough to compensate for the noticeable lag in mega-cap shares, with the FANG index gaining just +0.15%. The STOXX 600 decreased -1.15%, though that reflected the fact Europe closed ahead of the big reversal in sentiment the previous session. Aside from Omicron, one of the other biggest stories yesterday was the decision by the OPEC+ group to continue with their production hike, which will add a further +400k barrels/day to global supply in January. The news initially sent oil prices sharply lower, with Brent crude falling to an intraday low beneath $66/bbl, before recovering to end the day back at $69.67/bl in light of the group saying that they could adjust their plans “pending further developments of the pandemic”, with the ability to “make immediate adjustments if required”. Even with the bounceback yesterday however, oil has been one of the worst-performing assets over recent weeks, with Brent hitting an intraday high of $86.7/bbl in late-October, followed by a November that marked its worst monthly performance since the pandemic began. Overnight in Asia stocks are trading mostly higher with the KOSPI (+0.86%), Shanghai Composite (+0.58%), CSI (+0.35%) and the Nikkei (+0.29%) up but with the Hang Seng (-0.74%) under pressure amid the ongoing regulatory clampdown in technology from China as Didi prepares to delist on US markets. Looking forward now, the main highlight on today’s calendar is the US jobs report for November, which comes less than two weeks’ away from the Fed’s meeting where they’ll decide on the pace of tapering. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for nonfarm payrolls to grow by +600k, which would be the fastest pace of job growth since July, and that in turn would take the unemployment rate down to a post-pandemic low of 4.4%. Ahead of that, we had another decent weekly claims report (albeit that took place after the jobs report survey period), with the number for the week through November 26 coming in at a stronger-than-expected 222k (vs. 240k expected). The previous week’s number was also revised down -5k, sending the 4-week moving average down to its own post-pandemic low of 238.75k. Looking at yesterday’s other data releases, the Euro Area unemployment rate fell to a post-pandemic low of 7.3% in October, in line with expectations. However producer price inflation shot up even faster than anticipated to +21.9% (vs. 19.0% expected). To the day ahead now, and the aforementioned US jobs report for November will be the highlight. Other data releases include the services and composite PMIs for November from around the world, Euro Area retail sales for October, and in addition from the US, there’s October’s factory orders and the November ISM services index. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde and chief economist Lane, the Fed’s Bullard and the BoE’s Saunders. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/03/2021 - 07:55.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 3rd, 2021

"Here Comes A Revolution!" - Saxo Bank Unveils Its "Outrageous Predictions" For The Year Ahead

"Here Comes A Revolution!" - Saxo Bank Unveils Its 'Outrageous Predictions' For The Year Ahead Saxo Bank has today released its 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2022. The predictions focus on a series of unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to occur, could send shockwaves across financial markets: The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check Facebook faceplants on youth exodus The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years As culture wars rage across the world, it’s no longer a question of if we get a socioeconomic revolution, but a question of when and how. But which revolutionary prediction do you think is most likely? Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen summarizes the theme for 2022 Outrageous Predictions is Revolution. There is so much energy building up in our inequalityplagued society and economy. Add to that the inability of the current system to address the issue and we need to look into the future with the fundamental outlook that it’s not a question of whether we get a revolution, but more a question of when and how. With every revolution, some win and some lose, but that’s not the point—if the current system can’t change but must, a revolution is the only path forward. A culture war is raging across the globe and the divide is no longer simply between the rich and the poor. It’s also the young versus the old, the educated class versus the less educated working class, real markets with price discovery versus government intervention, stock market buy-backs versus R&D spending, inflation versus deflation, women versus men, the progressive left versus the centrist left, virtual signalling on social media versus real changes to society, the rentier class versus labour, fossil fuels versus green energy, ESG initiatives versus the need to supply the world with reliable energy—the list goes on. What’s interesting for me, having done this Outrageous Predictions list for twenty years, is that all of the above issues point to a cycle ending rather than a continuation of more of the same. Post-pandemic (well, mostly) the market is hoping that things will continue as before, but as an old mentor of mine used to say, when I answered one of his questions with “I hope”: “Listen, son, save hope for church on Sundays, and come back when you have something more concrete.” The year 2022 is likely to see far less of what markets are hoping for and far more in the way of volatility as revolutionary movements kick into gear that challenge the status quo as we grope our way towards a new paradigm. Some of these movements will get things right, some of them will make mistakes, but we need to get started. Pretty much everything needs to change if we are to achieve zero emissions, less inequality, stable energy and importantly, more productivity. 2021 was a year in which we thought we could firmly put Covid behind us, but as 2022 rolls into view, we’re simply not there yet. It was a year with unprecedented fiscal transfers, especially to lower-income households, which created excess demand in a geopolitically and supply chain–fragmented world. The physical world simply became too small to absorb the good, if misguided, intentions of politicians and central banks to keep the economy on an even keel. Now we find ourselves with an energy crisis on our hands—and that’s not an outrageous call. But how we deal with it could create both policy mistakes and fundamental changes. A cold winter, for example, could spark a counter-revolution against the current alternative energy narrative, requiring that we reconfigure our expectations around how quickly we can abandon fossil fuels (Outrageous Prediction number 1 for 2022!) and even reclassifying nuclear energy as green. Doing anything else is simply not viable if we want to avoid a collapse in the real economy. We do realise that the Revolution theme for OP 2022 can create negative associations. To many of us, the word Revolution calls forth the 1789 French Revolution with its call for “Liberty, Equality, and Fraternity”, but also the Russian Revolution and its “smash the capitalists” principles. But our intent is the broader definition of revolution: not the physical overthrowing of governments, but eurekalike moments that trigger a change of thinking, a change of behaviour and a rejection of the unsustainable status quo. Hopefully, each of the Outrageous Predictions echoes that general point, with a couple of the revolutions triggered by the “involuntary” implications of technical progress: hypersonic missiles and longevity therapy. We need more liberty from governments in some areas, like a less heavy-handed monetary policy and the moral hazard of unproductively backstopping markets it brings. And we need more regulation in others, like avoiding the dangers of a hyper-financialised economy, too-powerful monopolies and inequality. Most urgently, we need to provide a brighter outlook for the world’s young people and better cooperation among nations instead of the present trend away from globalisation and multilateral institutions. We collaborated globally on Covid vaccines in 2020 and 2021. Now we need a new Manhattan Project–- type endeavour to set the marginal cost of energy, adjusted for productivity, on the path to much lower levels while eliminating the impact of our energy generation on the environment. Such a move would unleash the most significant productivity cycle in history: we could desalinate water, make vertical farms feasible almost anywhere, enable the leap to quantum computing, and continue to explore new boundaries in biology and physics. Remember that the world is forever evolving if at varying speeds, while business and political cycles are always finite. We are betting that in 2022 the speed of evolution kicks up a few notches into a revolutionary state as a new cycle gets under way. ‘Change is good’ needs to be the new mantra, or at minimum: “trial and error”. Let’s at least try and err some more rather than trying to forever kick the can down the road! Finally, we must emphasise our annual caveat, that these Outrageous Predictions should not be seen as our official view on the market and politics. This year, more than ever, we’re trying to provoke you and ourselves to think outside the box and to engage in discussing the important topics we raise. Let the fun, and the future, begin. *  *  * The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check Summary: Policymakers kick climate targets down the road and support fossil fuel investment to fight inflation and the risk of social unrest while rethinking the path to a low-carbon future. Facebook faceplants on youth exodus Summary: The young abandon Facebook’s platforms in protest against their mining of personal information for profit; the attempt by Facebook parent Meta to reel them back in with the Metaverse stumbles. The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis Summary: The US mid-term election sees a stand-off over the certification of close Senate and/or House election results, leading to a scenario where the 118th Congress is unable to sit on schedule in early 2023. US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral Summary: By the fourth quarter of 2022, US CPI inflation reaches an annualized 15% as companies bid up wages in an effort to find willing and qualified workers, triggering a wage-price spiral unlike anything seen since the 1970’s. EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions Summary: To defend against the rise of populism, deepen the commitment to slowing climate change, and defend its borders as the US security umbrella recedes, the EU launches a bold $3 trillion Superfund to be funded by pension allocations rather than new taxes. Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy Summary: Mimicking the meme stock Reddit Army tactics of 2020-21, a group of women traders launch a coordinated assault on companies with weak records on gender equality, leading to huge swings in equity prices for targeted companies. India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member Summary: The world’s geopolitical alliances will lurch into a phase of drastic realignment as we have an ugly cocktail of new deglobalising geopolitics and much higher energy prices. Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform Summary: Musicians are ready for change as the current music streaming paradigm means that labels and streaming platforms capture 75-95 percent of revenue paid for listening to streamed music. In 2022, new blockchain-based technology will help them grab back their fair share of industry revenues. New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war Summary: The latest hypersonic missile tests are driving a widening sense of insecurity as this tech renders legacy conventional and even nuclear military hardware obsolete. In 2022 a massive hypersonic arms race develops among major militaries as no country wants to feel left behind. Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years Summary: Young forever, or for at least a lot longer. In 2022, a key breakthrough in biomedicine brings the prospect of extending productive adulthood and the average life expectancy by up to 25 years, prompting projected ethical, environmental and fiscal crises of epic proportions. *  *  * Read the full report below: Tyler Durden Thu, 12/02/2021 - 08:45.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytDec 2nd, 2021

Kirkland"s Reports Third Quarter 2021 Results

NASHVILLE, Tenn., Dec. 2, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Kirkland's, Inc. (NASDAQ:KIRK) ("Kirkland's" or the "Company"), a specialty retailer of home décor and furnishings, announced financial results for the 13 and 39-week periods ended October 30, 2021. Third Quarter 2021 Financial Summary vs. Prior Year Quarter Net sales decreased 2.0% to $143.6 million, with 3.1% fewer stores Comparable sales decreased 0.7%, including an e-commerce increase of 7.3% Gross profit margin decreased 140 basis points to 34.7% Earnings per diluted share was $0.51 compared to $0.82 Adjusted earnings per diluted share was $0.51 compared to $0.66 EBITDA was $14.1 million compared to $18.9 million Adjusted EBITDA was $14.8 million compared to $18.7 million Operating income was $9.0 million compared to $13.1 million Cash balance of $26.5 million with no outstanding debt; total liquidity of $100.9 million Share repurchases of $16.5 million in the quarter Store count at quarter end of 369 Management Commentary "While the third quarter had its challenges, we remain confident in our overall position as we continue executing upon our long-term transformation strategy," said Steve "Woody" Woodward, president and CEO of Kirkland's. "We experienced softer than expected sales in the final weeks of the quarter but ended with an 8.4% two-year comparable sales increase. We continue to navigate the broader macro issues related to supply chain and labor constraints, which affected year-over-year profitability. Stripping away the incremental freight costs in our supply chain, we continued to achieve gross margin expansion. "Looking at our results through the end of November, we were impacted by inconsistent traffic patterns and broader supply chain constraints. During Black Friday, we saw in-store traffic remain relatively flat on a year-over-year basis, but there was a meaningful decline in e-commerce traffic, which led to a total sales comp decline for the first month of the fiscal fourth quarter. Given our third quarter results, along with continued supply chain headwinds and choppy sales patterns, we are revising our outlook for the remainder of the year. "Despite these headwinds, we are excited about the progress we've been making as we enter 2022. We've started a brand awareness campaign ahead of our rebranding launch to Kirkland's Home, which we expect to take place in the first quarter of 2022. Additionally, we are working to strengthen our digital capabilities within the e-commerce site to further enhance the omnichannel experience for our customers. We are also prioritizing our in-store floor layouts for new furniture and outdoor product assortments that we are rolling out in the first half of the year. We believe having a strong furniture and outdoor merchandise mix will help mitigate our seasonal reliance on holiday shopping and help drive new customer growth going forward. "Overall, we remain on track to achieve our long-term financial targets and are firmly committed to the strategic initiatives we've set forth. Our commitment to optimizing our merchandising assortment, stabilizing margins and driving profitable growth has not wavered, and we firmly believe we are on track to become a high-performance specialty home furnishing retailer with quality products at affordable price points. Although we don't have a clear indication of when supply chain constraints will subside, we are experiencing strong sell-through with the new product assortments that we are able to get to our floor, which gives us further confidence that our merchandise transformation is working and resonating with consumers. We believe we have the necessary infrastructure and team in place to continue executing upon our strategy, ultimately driving long-term shareholder value." Revised Fourth Quarter 2021 Outlook The Company now expects a mid-to-high-single-digit same-store sales decrease for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021 and a mid-single digit same-store sales increase for fiscal 2021. With the expected sales decline and freight impact, the Company anticipates earnings in the fourth quarter to be lower than the prior-year period, while still expecting year-over-year earnings growth of approximately 50% for fiscal 2021. Strategic Initiatives and Financial Targets Kirkland's key strategic initiatives include: Accelerating product development to reinforce quality and relevancy as the Company continues its transformation into a specialty retailer where customers are able to furnish their entire home on a budget; Bolstering its omni-channel strategy via website enhancements, more focused marketing spend, an expanded online assortment, and an improved in-store experience; Improving the customer experience with the Company's re-launched loyalty program, extended credit options and broadened delivery options; and Utilizing its leaner infrastructure to be nimbler to changes in consumer preference and buying behaviors. Kirkland's annual financial targets include: Comparable sales growth, driven by e-commerce, merchandise improvements and brick-and-mortar store productivity. The Company expects e-commerce to continue to grow as a percent of its total business to over 50% of sales. The Company also intends to focus on improving the contribution of its remaining store base, which is an integral part of its omni-channel strategy and supports improved profitability of its e-commerce sales. Increasing gross margin by continuing with the Company's current discipline of limited promotional offers, expanding direct sourcing, improving supply chain efficiency and reducing occupancy costs. With improved merchandise quality and to support a better customer experience, the Company will continue to move towards more targeted promotions. Direct sourcing is expected to increase from approximately 20% of purchases in 2020 to 70% by 2025. With these improvements, continued efficiencies in the Company's supply chain and lower occupancy costs, Kirkland's goal is to improve its annual gross profit margin to a mid-to-high 30% range over the next one-to-two years. Improving profitability by leveraging the leaner infrastructure with comparable sales growth. The Company believes its ideal store count should be approximately 350 stores with additional opportunities for more favorable rent terms during ongoing lease renewals. With approximately $45 million in annualized operating expenses eliminated from the business in 2020, the Company expects annual EBITDA as a percent of sales to be in the low-to-mid double-digit range in the next one-to-two years and annual operating income as a percentage of sales to be in the high-single-digit range in the next one-to-two years. Maintaining adequate liquidity and generating free cash flow while continuing to invest in key strategic initiatives and returning excess cash to Kirkland's shareholders. The key strategic initiatives and financial targets are based on current information as of December 2, 2021, and are dependent on, among other things, consumer preferences, economic conditions and Kirkland's own successful execution of these initiatives. The information on which these initiatives and financial targets is based is subject to change, and investors are cautioned that the Company may update the initiatives and targets, or any portion thereof, at any time for any reason. Investor Conference Call and Web Simulcast Kirkland's management will host a conference call to discuss its financial results for the third quarter ended October 30, 2021, followed by a question and answer period with Steve Woodward, president and CEO, and Nicole Strain, CFO. Date: Thursday, December 2, 2021Time: 9:00 a.m. Eastern timeToll-free dial-in number: (855) 560-2577International dial-in number: (412) 542-4163Conference ID: 10162053 Please call the conference telephone number 10-15 minutes prior to the start time. An operator will register your name and organization. If you have any difficulty connecting with the conference call, please contact Gateway Investor Relations at (949) 574-3860. The conference call will be broadcast live and available for replay here and via the investor relations section of the Company's website at www.kirklands.com. The online replay will follow shortly after the call and continue for one year. A telephonic replay of the conference call will be available after the conference call through December 9, 2021. Toll-free replay number: (877) 344-7529International replay number: (412) 317-0088Replay ID: 10162053 About Kirkland's, Inc. Kirkland's, Inc. is a specialty retailer of home décor in the United States, currently operating 369 stores in 35 states as well as an e-commerce website, www.kirklands.com. The Company's stores present a curated selection of distinctive merchandise, including holiday décor, furniture, textiles, wall décor, decorative accessories, art, mirrors, fragrances, and other home decorating items. The Company's stores offer an extensive assortment of holiday merchandise during seasonal periods. The Company provides its customers an engaging shopping experience characterized by affordable home décor and inspirational design ideas. This combination of quality and stylish merchandise, value pricing and a stimulating online and store experience allows customers to furnish their home on a budget. More information can be found at www.kirklands.com. Forward-Looking Statements  Except for historical information contained herein, the statements in this release, including all statements related to future initiatives, financial goals and expectations or beliefs regarding any future period, are forward-looking and made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and are subject to the finalization of the Company's quarterly financial and accounting procedures. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause Kirkland's actual results to differ materially from forecasted results. Those risks and uncertainties include, among other things, risks associated with the Company's progress and anticipated progress towards its long-term objective and the success of its plans in response to the novel coronavirus ("COVID-19") pandemic, the spread of COVID-19 and its impact on the Company's revenues and supply chain, risks associated with COVID-19 and the governments responses to it, the impact of store closures, the effectiveness of the Company's marketing campaigns, risks related to changes in U.S. policy related to imported merchandise, particularly with regard to the impact of tariffs on goods imported from China and strategies undertaken to mitigate such impact, the Company's ability to retain its senior management team, continued volatility in the price of the Company's common stock, the competitive environment in the home décor industry in general and in Kirkland's specific market areas, inflation, fluctuations in cost and availability of inventory, interruptions in supply chain and distribution systems, including our e-commerce systems and channels, the ability to control employment and other operating costs, availability of suitable retail locations and other growth opportunities, disruptions in information technology systems including the potential for security breaches of Kirkland's or its customers' information, seasonal fluctuations in consumer spending, and economic conditions in general. Those and other risks are more fully described in Kirkland's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K filed on March 26, 2021 and subsequent reports. Forward-looking statements included in this release are made as of the date of this release. Any changes in assumptions or factors on which such statements are based could produce materially different results. Kirkland's disclaims any obligation to update any such factors or to publicly announce results of any revisions to any of the forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect future events or developments. Contact: Kirkland's Gateway Investor Relations              Nicole Strain Cody Slach and Cody Cree (615) 872-4800 KIRK@gatewayir.com (949) 574-3860   KIRKLAND'S, INC. UNAUDITED CONSOLIDATED CONDENSED STATEMENTS OF INCOME (In thousands, except per share data) 13-Week Period Ended October 30, October 31, 2021 2020 Net sales $ 143,630 $ 146,609 Cost of sales 93,817 93,738 Gross profit 49,813 52,871 Operating expenses: Compensation and benefits 19,549 21,343 Other operating expenses 19,145 16,682 Depreciation (exclusive of depreciation included in cost of sales) 1,655 1,613 Asset impairment 444 177 Total operating expenses 40,793 39,815 Operating income 9,020 13,056 Other (income) expense, net (9) 9 Income before income taxes 9,029 13,047 Income tax expense 1,800 691 Net income $ 7,229 $ 12,356 Earnings per share: Basic $ 0.54 $ 0.87 Diluted $ 0.51 $ 0.82 Weighted average shares outstanding: Basic 13,405 14,249 Diluted 14,268 15,075   KIRKLAND'S, INC. UNAUDITED CONSOLIDATED CONDENSED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS (In thousands, except per share data) 39-Week Period Ended October 30, October 31, 2021 2020 Net sales $ 381,989 $ 348,578 Cost of sales 252,223 249,751 Gross profit 129,766 98,827 Operating expenses: Compensation and benefits 60,326 60,157 Other operating expenses 52,491 44,843 Depreciation (exclusive of depreciation included in cost of sales).....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaDec 2nd, 2021

US stock futures recover from shock Omicron case in California; oil rises ahead of key OPEC+ meeting

The first US Omicron case initially hit stocks hard, but some stability was returning on Thursday. Meanwhile, oil rose off three-month lows. Stock market volatility is at its highest since the start of the year, as investors weigh up the impact of the Omicron variant.Anton Petrus/Getty Images US stock futures rose, shaking off the initial shock of the first US case of Omicron, while oil gained. OPEC+ is meeting Thursday to discuss crude-supply policy against a backdrop of uncertainty over the variant. Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell's hawkish comments on monetary policy continued to reverberate across markets. US stock futures rose Thursday, shaking off the previous day's slide after the US detected its first case of the Omicron variant, while oil prices lifted off three-month lows ahead of a key meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday that a fully vaccinated adult in San Francisco had tested positive for COVID-19 with the variant, with mild symptoms, after returning from South Africa on November 22.The World Health Organization has already said at least 23 countries have reported cases of Omicron, and it expected "that number to grow." The news sent a shiver through financial markets Wednesday. On Thursday, it dented shares across Europe as markets played catch-up, but left US and Asian equity market sentiment unscathed. US stock index futures were up across the board, with S&P 500 futures gaining 0.6%, Dow Jones futures rising 0.7%, and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.4% higher. The three benchmarks closed more than 1% down the day before, when the US case of Omicron surfaced."Yesterday's market reaction gives a flavour of how fickle and fragile sentiment currently is, despite the various reassurances from the likes of the WHO, as well as many of the vaccine companies, including BioNTech and Oxford University who came up with the AstraZeneca jab," CMC Markets strategist Michael Hewson said.In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was down 1.2% in early trade, along with most regional benchmarks. In Asia, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rose 0.4%.Meanwhile, crude oil rallied ahead of Thursday's meeting of OPEC and its partners to discuss supply policy. Given the recent drop in the crude price to three-month lows and the as-yet unknown impact to demand from the spread of the Omicron variant, there is greater uncertainty than usual over what the group of major oil producers will decide regarding output."The potential for a significant shift in demand if Omicron sparks new lockdowns does alter the state of play significantly, but the most likely outcome does still remain another 400k bpd increase in production," strategists at broker IG said in a daily note.Brent crude futures were up 1.3% at $69.75 a barrel. WTI, futures, which tend to be less sensitive to OPEC output, were up 1.5% at $66.50 a barrel. Both contracts lost around 17% in November, for their biggest one-month drop since April last year. US gasoline futures were up 1.8%, having gained nearly 42% so far this year, which has added to politicians' and central bankers' concerns about more entrenched inflation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has long maintained that the high rate of increase in consumer prices would be transitory. But with a labor shortage pushing up wages, and the cost of goods from food to second-hand cars rising, Powell has changed his tone.On Tuesday, he said the Fed's policy-makers would discuss accelerating the winding-down of its bond purchases — a step investors perceive as immediately preceding a rate hike. Markets are currently pricing in at least two rate rises in 2022, starting around June."This raises an interesting, broader, point. Given that the Fed wants to quicken the policy normalization process, how will other G10 central banks react?" Michael Brown, a strategist at Caxton FX, said. "Either they will act as sheep and follow suit, bringing the 'easy money' era to a sooner end than had previously been expected, posing a headwind to risky assets; or, they will stick to the status quo, putting rocket boosters under the dollar in the process," he added.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderDec 2nd, 2021

Pennon Group – Dividend Up 4.9%

Pennon Group plc (LON:PNN), owner of South West Water, Bristol Water and Bournemouth Water, today released interim results showing strong growth in revenues, accompanied by improved environmental outcomes and a 4.9% increase in the interim dividend to shareholders. The shares reacted positively to the results, rising almost 1% in early trading, before succumbing to the […] Pennon Group plc (LON:PNN), owner of South West Water, Bristol Water and Bournemouth Water, today released interim results showing strong growth in revenues, accompanied by improved environmental outcomes and a 4.9% increase in the interim dividend to shareholders. The shares reacted positively to the results, rising almost 1% in early trading, before succumbing to the broader weakness sweeping the stock market today. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more A Look At Pennon Group's Interim Results Commenting on the results, Steve Clayton, manager of the HL Select funds said: “These are a solid set of figures from Pennon today. Revenues have grown organically, further boosted by the addition of Bristol Water to the group. Encouragingly, Pennon say that Bristol Water is performing ahead of expectations. The group are claiming some impressive improvements in environmental performance, with a 100% clean waters outcomes for the regions bathing beaches and big reductions in flooding events. In a sign of things to come, Pennon highlight how the use of AI is helping them to identify where to make pre-emptive repairs, already driving sewer collapses down by 40% versus last year. The group’s financial performance is strong, with outperformance against regulatory targets accompanied by strong balance sheet management, that has driven the group’s effective interest rate down to 2.9%. Pennon’s strong management of the business has allowed it to set a best-in-class dividend policy of CPI+2% growth each year, reflected in almost 5% growth this year. With the scale of the regulated asset base set to grow significantly over the rest of the current regulatory price regime, the group look well set to continue making attractive dividend increases in the years ahead.” About Hargreaves Lansdown Over 1.67 million clients trust us with £138.0 billion (as at 30 September 2021), making us the UK’s number one platform for private investors. More than 98% of client activity is done through our digital channels and over 600,000 access our mobile app each month. Updated on Nov 30, 2021, 4:33 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkNov 30th, 2021

Stronghold Digital Mining Reports Third Quarter 2021 Results and Provides Operational Update

NEW YORK, Nov. 30, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Stronghold Digital Mining, Inc. (NASDAQ:SDIG) ("Stronghold," or the "Company") today reported financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2021 and provided an operational update. Third Quarter and Recent Operational and Financial Highlights Removed approximately 106,000 tons of coal refuse and returned approximately 64,500 tons of beneficial use ash to waste coal piles during the quarter, facilitating the remediation of these sites Closed upsized initial public offering ("IPO") on October 22, 2021, generating net proceeds of approximately $132.5 million Closed acquisition of Panther Creek Plant on November 2, 2021, increasing owned power generation capacity to approximately 165 megawatts ("MW") As of November 29, 2021, has received nearly 6,000 miners with total hash rate capacity of approximately 470 petahash per second ("PH/s") and remains on track to achieve its hash rate capacity goal of 8,000+ PH/s by the end of 2022 Pro forma cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2021 was approximately $104.2 million, as adjusted for net proceeds from the IPO, closing of the Panther Creek Plant acquisition, and deposits paid in relation to announced miner purchases Management Commentary "We are excited about our entry into the public markets as a well-capitalized, vertically integrated Bitcoin miner with an advantageous cost structure," said Greg Beard, co-chairman and chief executive officer of Stronghold. "We have structured Stronghold to not only be a best-in-class Bitcoin miner, but also to have a positive impact on the environment, which we accomplish through the cleanup of toxic, legacy waste coal piles in Pennsylvania. These piles are actively polluting the Commonwealth's air and water, and we are proud that our operations benefit the local communities." "We are executing on our strategy of growing owned power generation assets and rapidly deploying miners at these facilities, as evidenced by the recent acquisition of our second power generation asset and continued additions to our miner fleet. We intend to continue acquiring low-cost power assets and miners to reach our goal of at least 8,000 PH/s of hash rate capacity by the end of 2022." Cryptocurrency Mining Update Stronghold remains on track to reach its hash rate capacity goal of 8,000 PH/s by the end of 2022, with miners from a diversified group of global manufacturers, including MinerVa, Bitmain, and MicroBT. As of September 30, 2021, the Company had approximately 3,000 miners deployed with total hash rate capacity of approximately 185 PH/s. As of November 29, 2021, the Company has purchased or installed approximately 45,000 miners with total hash rate capacity of approximately 4,390 PH/s. Since the end of the third quarter, Stronghold has received nearly 3,000 miners, including the first 240 MV7 miners from MinerVa, and the Company expects to have over 500 MinerVa miners installed by the end of the week, with shipments ramping up for the 15,000-miner order. Performance for these machines has been in line with expectations. Since the end of the quarter, Stronghold also entered into two agreements with Bitmain to purchase 12,000 S19j Pro miners and 1,800 S19 XP miners, with aggregate hash rate capacity of approximately 1,450 PH/s. Additionally, the Company purchased over 2,500 miners on the open market through multiple transactions, with aggregate hash rate capacity exceeding 200 PH/s, which are expected to be installed before the end of the year. Stronghold also continues to expand datacenter capacity to house its miners. Stronghold owns, develops, and manages its datacenters, which increases operational control, mitigates supply-chain risks, and improves economics. The Company has manufactured 33 MW of StrongBoxes, its proprietary modular datacenter containers, and expects to have completed approximately 125 MW by the end of the first quarter of 2022. As of September 30, 2021, Stronghold held on its balance sheet approximately 85 Bitcoin. Power Assets Update On November 2, 2021, Stronghold closed on the acquisition of the Panther Creek Plant, an 80 MW coal refuse reclamation-to-energy facility located in Pennsylvania, which utilizes the same circulating fluidized bed technology as Stronghold's Scrubgrass Plant. Both the Scrubgrass Plant and Panther Creek Plant generate power from coal refuse, which is a waste byproduct of legacy coal mining operations. The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has designated coal refuse as a Tier II Alternative Energy Source, making our facilities eligible to earn renewable energy credits. In conjunction with the acquisition, the Company entered into an Operation, Maintenance and Ancillary Services Agreement with the seller to provide operations and maintenance services support to Stronghold for both the Scrubgrass Plant and the Panther Creek Plant. The support services from an experienced operating group are expected to facilitate durable uptime and efficiency for Stronghold's power assets. With the acquisition of the Panther Creek Plant, the Company's owned power generation capacity expanded to approximately 165 MW. Stronghold continues to evaluate opportunities to acquire additional power generation assets, including a third coal refuse reclamation facility that is under a non-binding letter of intent to purchase. Third Quarter 2021 Financial Results Revenues in the third quarter increased 527% to $6.0 million compared to $1.0 million in the same quarter a year ago. The increase is primarily attributable to higher energy generation and crypto asset mining revenues. Operating expenses in the third quarter increased 492% to $10.0 million compared to $1.7 million in the same quarter a year ago. The increase is primarily attributable to higher operating costs at the Scrubgrass Plant to facilitate higher and more consistent power generation capacity for energy operations and cryptocurrency operations, in addition to higher general and administrative costs as the Company scales its organizational structure. Net loss for the third quarter of ($6.3) million compared to a net loss of ($0.7) million for the same quarter a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter increased to $9,700 compared to ($0.5) million for the same quarter a year ago (see reconciliation of Non-GAAP financial measures). Net cash provided by operating activities in the third quarter was $10.2 million compared to $0.5 million in the same quarter a year ago. Stronghold ended the quarter with approximately $41.4 million in cash and approximately $53.7 million in debt. Financial and Operational Outlook "Following our successful IPO and closing of the Panther Creek acquisition, we are executing on our strategy of being a low-cost, environmentally beneficial Bitcoin miner," said Greg Beard. "We expect a significant ramp-up in miner deliveries over the coming months and are taking active steps to accelerate miner deliveries. We remain on track to reach the 2022 operational metrics that we communicated at the time of our IPO and continue to make excellent progress in expanding our power generation capacity to maintain our vertical integration as we grow our miner fleet." Conference Call Stronghold will host a conference call today, November 30, 2021, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time (2:00 p.m. Pacific Time) to discuss these results. A question-and-answer session will follow management's presentation. To participate, please dial the appropriate number at least ten minutes prior to the start time and ask for the Stronghold Digital Mining conference call. U.S. dial-in number: 1-844-705-8583 International number: 1-270-215-9880Conference ID: 1385345 The conference call will broadcast live and be available for replay here. A replay of the call will be available after 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time through December 14, 2021 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Toll-free replay number: 1-855-859-2056 International replay number: 1-404-537-3406Conference ID: 1385345 About Stronghold Digital Mining, Inc.Stronghold is a vertically integrated Bitcoin mining company with an emphasis on environmentally beneficial operations. Stronghold houses its miners at its wholly owned and operated Scrubgrass Plant and Panther Creek Plant, both of which are low-cost, environmentally beneficial coal refuse power generation facilities in Pennsylvania. Cautionary Statement Concerning Forward-Looking StatementsCertain statements contained in this press release constitute "forward-looking statements." within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You can identify forward-looking statements because they contain words such as "believes," "expects," "may," "will," "should," "seeks," "approximately," "intends," "plans," "estimates" or "anticipates" or the negative of these words and phrases or similar words or phrases which are predictions of or indicate future events or trends and which do not relate solely to historical matters. Forward-looking statements and the business prospects of Stronghold are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that may cause Stronghold's actual results in future periods to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, among other things: our dependence on the level of demand and financial performance of the crypto asset industry; our ability to manage growth, business, financial results and results of operations; our ability to raise capital to fund business growth; our ability to enter into purchase agreements and acquisitions; public health crises, epidemics, and pandemics such as the coronavirus pandemic; our ability to procure crypto asset mining equipment; our ability to respond to price fluctuations and rapidly changing technology; our ability to operate our coal refuse power generation facilities as planned; and legislative or regulatory changes, and liability under, or any future inability to comply with, existing or future energy regulations or requirements. More information on these risks and other potential factors that could affect our financial results is included in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including in the "Risk Factors" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" sections of our Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File No. 333-258188), filed on October 19, 2021, and any subsequently filed Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date as of which such statement is made, and, except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events, or otherwise. STRONGHOLD DIGITAL MINING, INC.   UNAUDITED CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS             September 30, 2021 and December 31, 2020                 Sept 30, 2021 Dec 31, 2020       (unaudited)     CURRENT ASSETS         Cash   $ 41,434,410   $ 303,187     Digital currencies     3,228,698     228,087     Accounts receivable     308,387     65,900     Due from related party     -     302,973     Prepaid insurance     278,538       Inventory     367,601     396,892     Other current assets     3,779,663     65,831     Total Current Assets     49,397,297     1,362,870     EQUIPMENT DEPOSITS     85,624,852     -     PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT, NET     40,114,787     7,814,199     LAND     29,919     -     ROAD BOND     185,245     185,245     TOTAL ASSETS   $ 175,352,100   $ 9,362,314               CURRENT LIABILITIES         Current portion of long-term debt- net of discounts/issuance fees   $ 31,251,305   $ 449,447     Related-party notes     -     2,024,250     Accounts payable     29,620,242     8,479,187     Due to related parties     735,618     698,338     Accrued liabilities     3,833,191     828     Total Current Liabilities     65,440,356     11,652,050               LONG-TERM LIABILITIES         Asset retirement obligation     474,933     446,128     Contract liabilities     187,837     40,000     Economic Injury Disaster Loan     -     150,000     Paycheck Protection Program Loan     841,670     638,800     Warrants issued with conversions to redeemable preferred stock     878,970     -     Long-term debt- net of discounts/issuance fees     22,417,973     482,443     Total Long-Term Liabilities     24,801,383     1,757,371     Total Liabilities     90,241,739     13,409,421               MEZZANINE EQUITY         Series A redeemable and convertible preferred stock, $.0001 par value, aggregate liquidation value $85,000,000, 9,792,000 shares issued and outstanding as of September 30, 2021     78,041,113     -     Series B redeemable and convertible preferred stock, $.0001 par value, aggregate liquidation value $20,000,006, 5,760,000 shares authorized and 1,817,035 issued and outstanding as of September 30, 2021     18,242,733     -     Common Stock - Class V, $.0001 par value; 34,560,000 shares authorized and 27,057,600 shares issued and outstanding     243,002,390     -       Total mezzanine equity     339,286,236     -               STOCKHOLDERS' DEFICIENCY & PARTNERS' DEFICIT         General partners     -     (2,710,323 )   Limited partners       (1,336,784 )   Series A redeemable and convertible preferred stock, $.0001 par value, aggregate liquidation value $5,000,000, 576,000 issued and outstanding as of September 30, 2021     58     -     Common Stock - Class A, .0001 par value; 238,000,000 shares authorized and 140,674 shares issued and outstanding     14     -     Accumulated deficits     (263,811,490 )   -     Additional paid-in capital     9,635,543     -     Stockholders' deficiency or partners' deficit  .....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaNov 30th, 2021

Asana (ASAN) to Report Q3 Earnings: What"s in the Cards?

Asana's (ASAN) fiscal third-quarter performance is expected to have benefited from expansion of its enterprise customer base. Asana ASAN is set to report third-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Dec 2.For the fiscal third quarter, Asana anticipates non-GAAP net loss in the range of 26-27 cents per share.  The Zacks Consensus Estimate for loss per share has remained steady at 23 cents over the past 30 days.Asana expects revenues in the range of $93-$94 million, indicating growth between 58% and 60% from the year-ago period's reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $94 million, indicating an increase of 59.5% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.Asana’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average earnings surprise being 13.7%. Asana, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise Asana, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Asana, Inc. Quote Let’s see how things have shaped up for Asana prior to this announcement:Factors to ConsiderAsana’s third-quarter fiscal 2022 results are expected to reflect an expanded enterprise customer base as Asana’s Work Graph data model gains traction.The number of customers spending $5,000 or more on an annualized basis grew to 12,806, an increase of 61% year over year in the fiscal second quarter. Moreover, the number of customers spending $50,000 or more on an annualized basis grew to 598, an increase of 111% year over year.The company witnessed high retention rates in the fiscal second quarter, translating into continued strong net new paying customer growth and strong seed expansion for its SaaS-based work management platform. This momentum is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.The launch of Asana’s Channel Partner network across 75 countries is expected to have been a key growth driver in the to-be-reported quarter.What Our Model IndicatesPer the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.Asana has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Stocks to ConsiderHere are a few companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases:Snowflake SNOW has an Earnings ESP of +1.82% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Snowflake shares have returned 29.6% year to date compared with the Zacks Internet – software industry’s decline of 15.6% and the Computer & Technology sector’s return of 23.2% year-to-date.CrowdStrike CRWD has an Earnings ESP of +0.92% and a Zacks Rank of 3.CrowdStrike shares have returned 6% year to date compared with the Zacks Internet Software industry’s decline of 15.6%. CrowdStrike has underperformed the Computer & Technology sector’s return of 23.2% year-to-date.Coupa Software COUP has an Earnings ESP of +33.33% and a Zacks Rank of 3.Coupa shares have declined 40.2% year to date compared with the Zacks Internet Software industry’s decline of 15.6%. Coupa has underperformed the Computer & Technology sector’s return of 23.1% year to date. Tech IPOs With Massive Profit Potential: Last years top IPOs surged as much as 299% within the first two months. With record amounts of cash flooding into IPOs and a record-setting stock market, this year could be even more lucrative. See Zacks’ Hottest Tech IPOs Now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Coupa Software, Inc. (COUP): Free Stock Analysis Report Snowflake Inc. (SNOW): Free Stock Analysis Report CrowdStrike (CRWD): Free Stock Analysis Report Asana, Inc. (ASAN): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksNov 30th, 2021

JinkoSolar Announces Third Quarter 2021 Financial Results

SHANGRAO, China, Nov. 30, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. ("JinkoSolar" or the "Company") (NYSE:JKS), one of the largest and most innovative solar module manufacturers in the world, today announced its unaudited financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2021. Third Quarter 2021 Business Highlights JinkoSolar's high-efficiency N-Type monocrystalline silicon solar cell sets new world record with highest conversion efficiency of 25.4%. Over 7GW of new cell capacity put into production in the second quarter reached full production in the third quarter, reducing cell production cost in the third quarter by more than 10% compared with the second quarter. China has strong market demand, and JinkoSolar's percentage of module shipments in the Chinese market in the third quarter doubled compared to the second quarter. JinkoSolar's competitive large-size module products accounted for nearly 50% of module shipments in the third quarter, compared with less than 20% in the first half of 2021. Third Quarter 2021 Operational and Financial Highlights Quarterly shipments were 4,993 MW (4,671 MW for solar modules, 322 MW for cells and wafers), total shipments down 4.0% sequentially, and down 2.4% year over year. Total revenues were RMB8.57 billion (US$1.33 billion), up 8.1% sequentially and down 2.3% year over year. The sequential increase was mainly attributable to an increase in the shipment of solar modules with higher selling price compared with cells and wafers. Gross profit was RMB1.30 billion (US$201.1 million), down 4.6% sequentially and down 13.3% year over year. Gross margin was 15.1%, compared with 17.1% in Q2 2021 and 17.0% in Q3 2020. Net income was RMB194.2 million (US$30.1 million), up 193.2% sequentially and up 27.3 times year over year. Non-GAAP net income was RMB15.9 million (US$2.5 million), down 94.2% sequentially and down 95.1% year over year. Basic earnings per ordinary share and diluted loss per ordinary share were RMB1.02 (US$0.16) and RMB(0.12) (US$(0.02)), respectively. This translates into basic earnings per ADS and diluted loss per ADS of RMB4.07 (US$0.63) and RMB(0.49) (US$(0.08)), respectively. Non-GAAP basic and diluted earnings per share were RMB0.08 (US$0.01) and RMB0.08 (US$0.01), respectively. Non-GAAP basic and diluted earnings per ADS were RMB0.33 (US$0.05) and RMB0.31 (US$0.05), respectively. Mr. Xiande Li, JinkoSolar's Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer, commented, "the release of more efficient new cell capacity significantly reduced our cell production costs in the third quarter, partially offsetting the impact of high prices of polysilicon and other materials on production costs. Total shipments were impacted by the delay in sales revenue recognition caused by logistical issues and blockages. Logistics costs have further increased compared with the second quarter, and module prices hit a new high in almost a year. However, due to the transition to renewable energy in most regions of the world, the increase in electricity prices, financing support and other favorable policies, clients are more willing to accept higher module prices. Currently in its most severe shortage, we expect polysilicon supply will gradually return to sufficient levels starting next year, and as a result, installation demand is expected to increase significantly.  Our high-efficiency N-type monocrystalline silicon solar cell reached a maximum conversion efficiency of 25.4%, setting a world record yet again. Based on our continuous leading R&D capabilities and two years of mass production experience, we are quickly expanding N-type cell production capacity. We are preparing for approximately 16 GW of N-type cell production capacity to be operational in the first quarter of 2022, and are planning to increase our global market share by enhancing our sales and promotions of N-type products to achieve at least 50% growth in annual shipments in 2022. Our 7GW monocrystalline silicon wafer plant in Vietnam will commence production in the first quarter of 2022. After that, we will have approximately 7 GW of integrated mono wafer-cell-module manufacturing capacity overseas. A sound and diversified global industrial chain infrastructure will enable us to be more flexible in terms of order production and customer delivery, as we continue to provide integrated services to our global customers." Third Quarter 2021 Financial Results Total Revenues Total revenues in the third quarter of 2021 were RMB8.57 billion (US$1.33 billion), an increase of 8.1% from RMB7.93 billion in the second quarter of 2021 and a decrease of 2.3% from RMB8.77 billion in the third quarter of 2020. The sequential increase was mainly attributable to an increase in the shipment of solar modules, while the year-over-year decrease was mainly attributable to a decrease in the shipment of solar modules. Gross Profit and Gross Margin Gross profit in the third quarter of 2021 was RMB1.30 billion (US$201.1 million), compared with RMB1.36 billion in the second quarter of 2021 and RMB1.49 billion in the third quarter of 2020. Gross margin was 15.1% in the third quarter of 2021, compared with 17.1% in the second quarter of 2021 and 17.0% in the third quarter of 2020. The sequential and year-over-year decreases were mainly attributable to cost increases due to the rise of material prices and a decline in the average selling price of solar modules in response to the intensified market competition globally. Income from Operations and Operating Margin Income from operations in the third quarter of 2021 was RMB111.2 million (US$17.3 million), compared with RMB356.4 million in the second quarter of 2021 and RMB546.0 million in the third quarter of 2020. Operating margin was 1.3% in the third quarter of 2021, compared with 4.5% in the second quarter of 2021 and 6.2% in the third quarter of 2020. Total operating expenses in the third quarter of 2021 were RMB1.18 billion (US$183.9 million), an increase of 18.2% from RMB1.00 billion in the second quarter of 2021 and an increase of 24.9% from RMB948.9 million in the third quarter of 2020. The sequential and year-over-year increases were mainly attributable to increases in shipping costs of solar modules in the third quarter of 2021. Total operating expenses accounted for 13.8% of total revenues in the third quarter of 2021, compared to 12.6% in the second quarter of 2021 and 10.8% in the third quarter of 2020. Interest Expense, Net Net interest expense in the third quarter of 2021 was RMB165.6 million (US$25.7 million), an increase of 5.1% from RMB157.5 million in the second quarter of 2021 and an increase of 28.1% from RMB129.2 million in the third quarter of 2020. The sequential and year-over-year increases were mainly due to an increase in interest expense, as the Company's interest-bearing debts increased.  Subsidy Income Subsidy income in the third quarter of 2021 was RMB63.5 million (US$9.9 million), compared with RMB162.2 million in the second quarter of 2021 and RMB62.8 million in the third quarter of 2020. The sequential decrease was mainly attributable to a decrease in the cash receipt of subsidies from local governments in China which are non-recurring, not refundable and with no conditions. Exchange Loss and Change in Fair Value of Foreign Exchange Derivatives The Company recorded a net exchange loss (including change in fair value of foreign exchange derivatives) of RMB6.2 million (US$1.0 million) in the third quarter of 2021, compared to a net exchange loss of RMB4.4 million in the second quarter of 2021 and a net exchange loss of RMB63.9 million in the third quarter of 2020. The net exchange loss was mainly due to the exchange rate fluctuation of the US dollars against the RMB in the third quarter of 2021. Change in Fair Value of Convertible Senior Notes and Call Option The Company issued US$85.0 million of 4.5% convertible senior notes due 2024 (the "Notes") in May 2019 and has elected to measure the Notes at fair value derived by valuation model, i.e. Binomial Model. The Company recognized a gain from a change in fair value of the Notes of RMB239.0 million (US$37.1 million) in the third quarter of 2021, compared to a loss of RMB335.7 million in the second quarter of 2021 and a loss of RMB593.7 million in the third quarter of 2020. The change was primarily due to a decrease in the Company's stock price in the third quarter of 2021. Concurrent with the issuance of the Notes in May 2019, the Company entered into a call option transaction with an affiliate of Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC. The Company accounted for the call option transaction as freestanding derivative assets in its consolidated balance sheets, which is marked to market during each reporting period. The Company recorded a loss from a change in fair value of the call option of RMB38.2 million (US$5.9 million) in the third quarter of 2021, compared to a gain of RMB137.9 million in the second quarter of 2021 and a gain of RMB280.7 million in the third quarter of 2020. The change was primarily due to a decrease in the Company's stock price in the third quarter of 2021. The Company exercised all the remaining call option using cash settlement in the third quarter of 2021. Equity in Earnings/(loss)of Affiliated Companies The Company indirectly holds a 20% equity interest in Sweihan PV Power Company P.J.S.C, a developer and operator of solar power projects in Dubai, and accounts for its investment using the equity method. The Company also holds a 30% equity interest in Jiangsu Jinko-Tiansheng Co., Ltd, which processes and assembles PV modules as an OEM manufacturer, and accounts for its investments using the equity method. The Company recorded equity in earnings of affiliated companies of RMB13.2 million (US$2.0 million) in the third quarter of 2021, compared with a loss of RMB0.3 million in the second quarter of 2021 and a gain of RMB24.7 million in the third quarter of 2020. The gain primarily arose from interest rate swap recorded by the equity affiliate due to an increase in long-term interest rates in the third quarter of 2021. Hedge accounting was not applied for the derivative. Income Tax Expense/(Benefit) The Company recorded an income tax expense of RMB22.0 million (US$3.4 million) in the third quarter of 2021, compared with an income tax benefit of RMB6.9 million in the second quarter of 2021 and an income tax expense of RMB69.2 million in the third quarter of 2020. The sequential increase of tax expense was mainly due to additional 2020 income tax deduction for R&D costs approved by the local tax bureau in the second quarter of 2021. Net Income and Earnings/(loss) per Share Net income attributable to the Company's ordinary shareholders was RMB194.2 million (US$30.1 million) in the third quarter of 2021, compared with net income attributable to the Company's ordinary shareholders of RMB66.2 million in the second quarter of 2021 and RMB6.9 million in the third quarter of 2020. Net income attributable to non-controlling interests decreased in the third quarter of 2021 mainly attributable to lower profit generated from the Company's certain subsidiary of which non-controlling shareholders own equity interests. Basic earnings per ordinary share and diluted loss per ordinary share were RMB1.02 (US$0.16) and RMB(0.12) (US$(0.02)), respectively, during the third quarter of 2021, compared to RMB0.35 and RMB0.35, respectively, in the second quarter of 2021, and RMB0.04 and RMB(1.55), respectively, in the third quarter of 2020. As each ADS represents four ordinary shares, this translates into basic earnings per ADS and diluted loss per ADS of RMB4.07 (US$0.63) and RMB(0.49) (US$(0.08)), respectively in the third quarter of 2021; RMB1.39 and RMB1.38, respectively, in the second quarter of 2021; and RMB0.16 and RMB(6.20), respectively, in the third quarter of 2020. The difference between basic earning and diluted loss per share in the third quarter of 2021 was mainly due to the dilutive impact of convertible senior notes. Non-GAAP net income attributable to the Company's ordinary shareholders in the third quarter of 2021 was RMB15.9 million (US$2.5 million), compared with RMB274.7 million in the second quarter of 2021 and RMB321.4 million in the third quarter of 2020. Non-GAAP basic and diluted earnings per ordinary share were both RMB0.08 (US$0.01) during the third quarter of 2021; both RMB1.44 in the second quarter of 2021 and both RMB1.81 in the third quarter of 2020. This translates into non-GAAP basic and diluted earnings per ADS of RMB0.33 (US$0.05) and RMB0.31 (US$0.05), respectively, in the third quarter of 2021; RMB5.76 and RMB5.75, respectively, in the second quarter of 2021, and both RMB7.22 in the third quarter of 2020. Because of the dilutive impact of call option arrangement during the third quarter of 2020,   potential shares underlying the call option arrangement were removed from weighted average number of ordinary shares outstanding since their issuance date, and changes in income of the assumed exercise of call option, including the change in fair value of the call option, foreign exchange gain/(loss) on the call option, and the issuance costs of the call option were also recorded as the adjustment to the Company's consolidated net income to arrive at the diluted net income available to the Company's ordinary shareholders. Under that situation, the Company implemented the same denominator for both non-GAAP basic and dilutive earnings per ordinary share in the third quarter of 2020. Financial Position As of September 30, 2021, the Company had RMB7.32 billion (US$1.14 billion) in cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash, compared with RMB6.52 billion as of June 30, 2021. As of September 30, 2021, the Company's accounts receivables due from third parties were RMB4.27 billion (US$662.5 million), compared with RMB3.91 billion as of June 30, 2021. As of September 30, 2021, the Company's inventories were RMB13.47 billion (US$2.09 billion), compared with RMB9.88 billion as of June 30, 2021. As of September 30, 2021, the Company's total interest-bearing debts were RMB23.76 billion (US$3.69 billion), of which RMB438.2 million (US$68.0 million) was related to the Company's overseas downstream solar projects, compared with RMB20.15 billion, of which RMB436.5 million was related to the Company's overseas downstream solar projects as of June 30, 2021. Third Quarter 2021 Operational Highlights Solar Module, Cell and Wafer Shipments Total shipments in the third quarter of 2021 were 4,993 MW, including 4,671 MW for solar module shipments and 322 MW for cell and wafer shipments. Solar Products Production Capacity As of September 30, 2021, the Company's in-house annual mono wafer, solar cell and solar module production capacity was 31 GW, 19 GW (940 MW for N type cells) and 36 GW, respectively. Operations and Business Outlook Highlights With JinkoSolar's industry-leading N-type cell R&D capabilities and over two year's mass production experience, it is investing in N-type cells, with an expected output of about 10GW in 2022. On the one hand, it helps alleviate challenges related to the Company's insufficient cell production capacity, and on the other hand, the N-type technology greatly improves module performance. The Company recently released a brand new Tiger Neo N-type product with mass production output of up to 620W. The Company's monocrystalline silicon wafer factory in Vietnam has started construction recently and will commence production in the first quarter of 2022, after which it will have approximately 7GW of overseas integrated production capacity, from mono silicon wafers to high-efficiency cells and modules. JinkoSolar is committed to improving the supply chain worldwide and producing high-quality and efficient products to serve global customers. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Guidance The Company's business outlook is based on management's current views and estimates with respect to market conditions, production capacity, the Company's order book and the global economic environment. This outlook is subject to uncertainty on final customer demand and sale schedules. Management's views and estimates are subject to change without notice. For the fourth quarter of 2021, the Company expects total shipments to be in the range of 7.3 GW to 8.8 GW (solar module shipments to be in the range of 7 GW to 8.5 GW). Total revenue for the fourth quarter is expected to be in the range of US$1.8 billion to US$2.2 billion. Gross margin for the fourth quarter is expected to be between 13% and 16%. For full year 2021, the Company estimates total shipments (including solar modules, cells and wafers) to be in the range of 22.8 GW to 24.3 GW. Solar Products Production Capacity JinkoSolar expects its annual mono wafer, solar cell and solar module production capacity to reach 32.5 GW, 24 GW (including 940 MW N-type cells) and 45 GW, respectively, by the end of 2021. Recent Business Developments In August 2021, JinkoSolar's principal operating subsidiary, Jinko Solar Co., Ltd. signed a long-term polysilicon supply agreement with Wacker Chemie AG. In September 2021, JinkoSolar's principal operating subsidiary, Jinko Solar Co., Ltd. signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. In September 2021, JinkoSolar announced that it is investing $500 million to build a monocrystalline ingot and wafer manufacturing facility in Quảng Ninh Province, Vietnam. In September 2021, JinkoSolar was awarded the 'Top Brand PV USA' seal by EUPD Research. In September 2021, the stock listing committee of Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech innovation board reviewed application of Jinko Solar Co., Ltd., the principal operating subsidiary of JinkoSolar, and considered that it had met the offering, listing and disclosure requirements related to its proposed IPO. In October 2021, JinkoSolar achieved a major technical breakthrough on its N-type monocrystalline silicon solar cell, setting a new world record for the fourth time in a year with the maximum solar conversion efficiency of 25.4% for its large-size passivating contact solar cell. In October 2021, JinkoSolar won the prestigious Green World Awards for Environmental Best Practice named by the Green Organization in the global campaign to find the world's greenest countries, companies, and communities. In October 2021, JinkoSolar's Tiger and Tiger Pro module series met the carbon footprint verification standards of TÜV Rheinland Group, a leading global services provider in the testing of PV modules and components. In October 2021, JinkoSolar worked with Catholic Charities Jacksonville to provide refugees living in Jacksonville access to devices and internet in order to facilitate their English classes and better acclimate to life in America. In November 2021, JinkoSolar launched a new series of ultra-efficient 2021 Flagship Tiger Neo modules. In November 2021, JinkoSolar announced that its principal operating subsidiary, Jinko Solar Co., Ltd. plans to invest RMB450 million for equity in Sichuan Yongxiang Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Tongwei Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Stock Exchange: 600438). Conference Call Information JinkoSolar's management will host an earnings conference call on Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 7:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time (8:30 p.m. Beijing / Hong Kong the same day). Dial-in details for the earnings conference call are as follows: Hong Kong / International: +852 3027 6500 U.S. Toll Free: +1 855-824-5644 Passcode: 71417350# Please dial in 10 minutes before the call is scheduled to begin and provide the passcode to join the call. A telephone replay of the call will be available 2 hours after the conclusion of the conference call through 23:59 U.S. Eastern Time, December 7, 2021. The dial-in details for the replay are as follows: International: +61 2 8325 2405 U.S.: +1 646 982 0473 Passcode: 520000271# Additionally, a live and archived webcast of the conference call will be available on the Investor Relations section of JinkoSolar's website at www.jinkosolar.com. About JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. JinkoSolar (NYSE:JKS) is one of the largest and most innovative solar module manufacturers in the world. JinkoSolar distributes its solar products and sells its solutions and services to a diversified international utility, commercial and residential customer base in China, the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, Chile, South Africa, India, Mexico, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, and other countries and regions. JinkoSolar has built a vertically integrated solar product value chain, with an integrated annual capacity of 31 GW for mono wafers, 19 GW for solar cells, and 36 GW for solar modules, as of September 30, 2021. JinkoSolar has 9 productions facilities globally, 22 overseas subsidiaries in Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, India, Turkey, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, United States, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Australia, Portugal, Canada, Malaysia, UAE, Hong Kong, Denmark, and global sales teams in China, United Kingdom, France, Spain, Bulgaria, Greece, Ukraine, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Morocco, South Africa, Costa Rica, Colombia, Panama, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam, Poland and Argentina, as of September 30, 2021. To find out more, please see: www.jinkosolar.com Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures To supplement its consolidated financial results presented in accordance with United States Generally Accepted Accounting Principles ("GAAP"), JinkoSolar uses certain non-GAAP financial measures including, non-GAAP net income, non-GAAP earnings per Share, and non-GAAP earnings per ADS, which are adjusted from the comparable GAAP results to exclude certain expenses or incremental ordinary shares relating to share-based compensation, convertible senior notes and call option: Non-GAAP net income is adjusted to exclude the expenses relating to issuance cost of convertible senior notes, change in fair value of convertible senior notes and call option, interest expenses of convertible senior notes and call option, exchange (gain)/loss on the convertible senior notes and call option, and stock-based compensation (benefit)/expense; given these Non-GAAP net income adjustments above are either related to the Company or its subsidiaries incorporated in Cayman Islands, which are not subject to tax exposures, or related to those subsidiaries with tax loss positions which result in no tax impacts, therefore no tax adjustment is needed in conjunction with these Non-GAAP net income adjustments; and Non-GAAP earnings per share and non-GAAP earnings per ADS are adjusted to exclude the expenses relating to issuance cost of convertible senior notes, change in fair value of convertible senior notes and call option, interest expenses of convertible senior notes and call option, exchange gain on the convertible senior notes and call option, and stock-based compensation. As the Non-GAAP net income is adjusted to exclude the change in fair value of call option, the dilutive impact of call option, if any, is also excluded from the denominator for the calculation of Non-GAAP earnings per share and non-GAAP earnings per ADS. The Company believes that the use of non-GAAP information is useful for analysts and investors to evaluate JinkoSolar's current and future performances based on a more meaningful comparison of net income and diluted net income per ADS when compared with its peers and historical results from prior periods. These measures are not intended to represent or substitute numbers as measured under GAAP. The submission of non-GAAP numbers is voluntary and should be reviewed together with GAAP results. Currency Convenience Translation The conversion of Renminbi into U.S. dollars in this release, made solely for the convenience of the readers, is based on the noon buying rate in the city of New York for cable transfers of Renminbi as certified for customs purposes by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as of September 30, 2021, which was RMB6.4434 to US$1.00. No representation is intended to imply that the Renminbi amounts could have been, or could be, converted, realized, or settled into U.S. dollars at that rate or any other rate. The percentages stated in this press release are calculated based on Renminbi. Safe-Harbor Statement This press release contains forward-looking statements. These statements constitute "forward-looking" statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and as defined in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as "will," "expects," "anticipates," "future," "intends, "plans," "believes," "estimates" and similar statements. Among other things, the quotations from management in this press release and the Company's operations and business outlook, contain forward-looking statements. Such statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in JinkoSolar's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including its annual report on Form 20-F. Except as required by law, the Company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For investor and media inquiries, please contact: In China:Ms. Stella WangJinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd.Tel: +86 21-5180-8777 ext.7806Email: ir@jinkosolar.com Rene VanguestaineChristensenTel: +86 178 1749 0483Email: rvanguestaine@ChristensenIR.com In the U.S.:Ms. Linda BergkampChristensenTel: +1-480-614-3004Email: lbergkamp@ChristensenIR.com       JINKOSOLAR HOLDING CO., LTD. UNAUDITED CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS (in thousands, except ADS and Share data) For the quarter ended For the nine months ended      Sep 30, 2020 Jun 30, 2021 Sep 30, 2021.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaNov 30th, 2021

A Close Analysis Of The LegalZoom Stock, Performance And Competitive Landscape

LegalZoom. com Inc (NASDAQ:LZ) is a company to watch, according to current Nasdaq stock exchange figures, with an enterprise value of 35.87 billion dollars. With an increasing number of people beginning their own businesses and many owners lacking interest in or knowledge of legal and compliance processes and frameworks, the future of the industry appears […] LegalZoom. com Inc (NASDAQ:LZ) is a company to watch, according to current Nasdaq stock exchange figures, with an enterprise value of 35.87 billion dollars. With an increasing number of people beginning their own businesses and many owners lacking interest in or knowledge of legal and compliance processes and frameworks, the future of the industry appears to be bright. .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Get To Know The Company LegalZoom is a leading online platform for legal and compliance solutions in the United States, with the goal of democratizing the law. LegalZoom has more than 20 years of experience navigating complex regulations and simplifying the legal and compliance process for its customers throughout all 50 states and over 3,000 counties in the United States. The company specializes in business formation, corporate modifications, filings, business compliance, trademarks, patents, copyright, taxes, licenses, permits, agreements, and other services. LegalZoom assists its customers in forming and protecting their businesses, ideas, and families, and is driven by the basic concept that every business deserves the complete protection of the legal system and a simple means to keep compliant with it. What experts say about Legalzoom is that by 2022 they will have formed 10% of all new LLCs and 5% of all new corporations in the United States. This is astronomical - and yes, it allows small business owners to focus on their core competencies rather than the legal and regulatory complexities that come with running a business. In addition to business formations, LegalZoom provides continuing compliance and tax assistance, trademark and copyright filings, and estate planning documents to protect small businesses and their founders. “Our mission of Democratizing Law has been a constant from day one. Our goal is to level the playing field for small businesses by making the law accessible with simple and affordable services. At business formation, small businesses are looking for a lot more than just legal help. We’re excited to help remove roadblocks that get in their way, legal or otherwise,” Wernikoff said in a statement on the release day of LegalZoom on the stock market. Thoughts On Valuation & IPO The company's management and underwriters sought to sell 19.1 million shares at a price range of $24 to $27 per share, with the ultimate price set at $28, well above the higher end of the range. With the offering, the company expects to raise $535 million in gross proceeds. Net cash after the offering is estimated to be roughly $230 million based on the offer proceeds. The 194.1 million shares are worth $5.4 billion in equity, which translates to a $5.2 billion operational asset valuation. When we look at the underlying firm, we notice a sizable revenue base, as well as profitability. The company generated $408 million in revenue in 2019, with a $46 million operating profit after a $14 million impairment change. Revenues increased by 15% to $470 million and change in 2020, while operating profits increased slightly to $49 million, however they were really down if we compensate for the impairment charge incurred in 2019. Revenues during the first quarter of 2021 increased by 27% to $134.8 million, resulting in a $540 million sales run rate. This works out to approximately 10 times sales with a $5.2 billion operational asset valuation. With shares trading as high as nearly $40 in the first few days of trading, the company's value has increased by $2.3 billion, resulting in a $7.5 billion operational asset valuation. This means that, of course, expectations have risen to 14 times annualized sales and even lower earnings multiples. Final Thoughts Although LegalZoom is well positioned to be a long-term secular growth story, current valuations appear to already reflect this. Other concerns, aside from the valuation risks in terms of the sales multiple, are much more generic. This includes, among other things, a competitive operating environment, the perceived value of client counsel, and reputation (in the event that some incorrect advice is given). Fortunately, there are a number of traditional incumbents in the competitive area, and it appears that the company is well positioned to capture market share from them, making it an interesting enough tale to keep an eye on. Updated on Nov 29, 2021, 9:28 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkNov 29th, 2021

BTFDers Unleashed: Futures, Yields, Oil Jump As Omicron Panic Eases

BTFDers Unleashed: Futures, Yields, Oil Jump As Omicron Panic Eases As expected over the weekend, and as we first noted shortly after electronic markets reopened for trading on Sunday, S&P futures have maintained their overnight gains and have rebounded 0.7% while Nasdaq contracts jumped as much as 1.3% after risk sentiment stabilized following Friday’s carnage and as investors settled in for a few weeks of uncertainty on whether the Omicron variant would derail economic recoveries and the tightening plans of some central banks. Japan led declines in the Asian equity session (which was catching down to Friday's US losses) after the government shut borders to visitors. The region’s reopening stocks such as restaurants, department stores, train operators and travel shares also suffered some losses.  Oil prices bounced $3 a barrel to recoup some of Friday's rout, while the safe haven yen, Swiss franc and 10Y Treasury took a breather after its run higher. Moderna shares jumped as much as 12% in pre-market trading after Chief Medical Officer Paul Burton said he suspects the new omicron coronavirus variant may elude current vaccines, and if so, a reformulated shot could be available early in the new year. Which he would obviously say as his company makes money from making vaccines, even if they are not very efficient. Here are some of the other notable premarket movers today: BioNTech (BNTX US) advanced 5% after it said it’s starting with the first steps of developing a new adapted vaccine, according to statement sent by text. Merck & Co. (MRK US) declined 1.6% after it was downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi, which also opens a negative catalyst watch, with “high probability” the drugmaker will abandon development of its HIV treatment. A selection of small biotechs rise again in U.S. premarket trading amid discussion of the companies in StockTwits and after these names outperformed during Friday’s market rout. Palatin Tech (PTN US) +37%, Biofrontera (BFRI US) +22%, 180 Life Sciences (ATNF US) +19%. Bonds gave back some of their gains, with Treasury futures were down 11 ticks. Like other safe havens, the market had rallied sharply as investors priced in the risk of a slower start to rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and less tightening by some other central banks. Needless to say, Omicron is all anyone can talk about: on one hand, authorities have already orchestrated a lot of global panic: Britain called an urgent meeting of G7 health ministers on Monday to discuss developments on the virus, even though the South African doctor who discovered the strain and treated cases said symptoms of Omicron were so far mild. The new variant of concern was found as far afield as Canada and Australia as more countries such as Japan imposed travel restriction to try to seal themselves off. Summarizing the fearmongering dynamic observed, overnight South African health experts - including those who discovered the Omicron variant, said it appears to cause mild symptoms, while the Chinese lapdog organization, WHO, said the variant’s risk is “extremely high”. Investors are trying to work out if the omicron flareup will a relatively brief scare that markets rebound from, or a bigger blow to the global economic recovery. Much remains unanswered about the new strain: South African scientists suggested it’s presenting with mild symptoms so far, though it appears to be more transmissible, but the World Health Organization warned it could fuel future surges of Covid-19 with severe consequences. "There is a lot we don't know about Omicron, but markets have been forced to reassess the global growth outlook until we know more," said Rodrigo Catril, a market strategist at NAB. "Pfizer expects to know within two weeks if Omicron is resistant to its current vaccine, others suggest it may take several weeks. Until then markets are likely to remain jittery." "Despite the irresistible pull of buying-the-dip on tenuous early information on omicron, we are just one negative omicron headline away from going back to where we started,” Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note. “Expect plenty of headline-driven whipsaw price action this week.” The emergence of the omicron strain is also complicating monetary policy. Traders have already pushed back the expected timing of a first 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve to July from June. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic played down economic risks from a new variant, saying he’s open to a quicker paring of asset purchases to curb inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speak before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. “We know that central banks can quickly switch to dovish if they need to,” Mahjabeen Zaman, Citigroup senior investment specialist, said on Bloomberg Television. “The liquidity playbook that we have in play right now will continue to support the market.” European stocks rallied their worst drop in more than a year on Friday, with travel and energy stocks leading the advance. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.9% while FTSE 100 futures gain more than 1%, aided by a report that Reliance may bid for BT Group which jumped as much as 9.5% following a report that India’s Reliance Industries may offer to buy U.K. phone company, though it pared the gain after Reliance denied it’s considering a bid. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde put a brave face on the latest virus scare, saying the euro zone was better equipped to face the economic impact of a new wave of COVID-19 infections or the Omicron variant Japanese shares lead Asian indexes lower after Premier Kishida announces entry ban of all new foreign visitors. Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index closed down 0.9% at the lowest level since October 2020, led by Galaxy Entertainment and Meituan. The index followed regional peers lower amid worries about the new Covid variant Omicron. Amid the big movers, Galaxy Entertainment was down 5.4% after police arrested Macau’s junket king, while Meituan falls 7.1% after reporting earnings. In FX, currency markets are stabilizing as the week kicks off yet investors are betting on the possibility of further volatility. The South African rand climbed against the greenback though most emerging-market peers declined along with developing-nation stocks. Turkey’s lira slumped more than 2% after a report at the weekend that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered a probe into foreign currency trades. The Swiss franc, euro and yen retreat while loonie and Aussie top G-10 leaderboard after WTI crude futures rally more than 4%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index hovered after Friday’s drop, and the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers; commodity currencies led gains. The euro slipped back below $1.13 and Bunds sold off, yet outperformed Treasuries. The pound was steady against the dollar and rallied against the euro. Australian sovereign bonds pared an opening jump as Treasuries trimmed Friday’s spike amid continuing uncertainty over the fallout from the omicron variant. The Aussie rallied with oil and iron ore. The yen erased an earlier decline as a government announcement on planned border closures starting Tuesday spurred a drop in local equities. The rand strengthens as South African health experts call omicron variant “mild.” In rates, Treasuries were cheaper by 4bp-7bp across the curve in belly-led losses, reversing a portion of Friday’s sharp safe-haven rally as potential economic impact of omicron coronavirus strain continues to be assessed. The Treasury curve bear- steepened and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped as much as 7 basis points to 1.54%; that unwound some of Friday’s 16 basis-point plunge -- the steepest since March 2020.  Focal points include month-end on Tuesday, November jobs report Friday, and Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak Monday afternoon. Treasuries broadly steady since yields gapped higher when Asia session began, leaving 10-year around 1.54%, cheaper by almost 7bp on the day; front-end outperformance steepens 2s10s by ~3bp. Long-end may draw support from potential for month-end buying; Bloomberg Treasury index rebalancing was projected to extend duration by 0.11yr as of Nov. 22 In commodities, oil prices bounced after suffering their largest one-day drop since April 2020 on Friday. "The move all but guarantees the OPEC+ alliance will suspend its scheduled increase for January at its meeting on 2 December," wrote analyst at ANZ in a note. "Such headwinds are the reason it's been only gradually raising output in recent months, despite demand rebounding strongly." Brent rebounded 3.9% to $75.57 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 4.5% to $71.24. Gold has so far found little in the way of safe haven demand, leaving it stuck at $1,791 an ounce . SGX iron ore rises almost 8% to recoup Friday’s losses. Bitcoin rallied after falling below $54,000 on Friday. Looking at today's calendar, we get October pending home sales, and November Dallas Fed manufacturing activity. We also get a bunch of Fed speakers including Williams, Powell making remarks at the New York Fed innovation event, Fed’s Hassan moderating a panel and Fed’s Bowman discussing central bank and indigenous economies. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 4,625.00 MXAP down 0.9% to 191.79 MXAPJ down 0.4% to 625.06 Nikkei down 1.6% to 28,283.92 Topix down 1.8% to 1,948.48 Hang Seng Index down 0.9% to 23,852.24 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,562.70 Sensex up 0.4% to 57,307.46 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 7,239.82 Kospi down 0.9% to 2,909.32 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 467.47 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.31% Euro down 0.3% to $1.1283 Brent Futures up 3.8% to $75.49/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,797.11 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.13% to 96.22 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The omicron variant of Covid-19, first identified in South Africa, has been detected in locations from Australia to the U.K. and Canada, showing the difficulties of curtailing new strains While health experts in South Africa, where omicron was first detected, said it appeared to cause only mild symptoms, the Geneva-based WHO assessed the variant’s risk as “extremely high” and called on member states to test widely. Understanding the new strain will take several days or weeks, the agency said All travelers arriving in the U.K. starting at 4 a.m. on Nov. 30 must take a PCR coronavirus test on or before the second day of their stay and isolate until they receive a negative result. Face coverings will again be mandatory in shops and other indoor settings and on public transport. Booster shots may also be approved for more age groups within days, according to Health Secretary Sajid Javid The economic effects of the successive waves of the Covid pandemic have been less and less damaging, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau says Italian bonds advance for a third day, as investors shrug off new coronavirus developments over the weekend and stock futures advance, while bunds are little changed ahead of German inflation numbers and a raft of ECB speakers including President Christine Lagarde A European Commission sentiment index fell to 117.5 in November from 118.6 the previous month, data released Monday showed Spanish inflation accelerated to the fastest in nearly three decades in November on rising food prices, underscoring the lingering consequences of supply-chain bottlenecks across Europe. Consumer prices jumped 5.6% Energy prices in Europe surged on Monday after weather forecasts showed colder temperatures for the next two weeks that will lift demand for heating ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel took to the airwaves to reassure her fellow Germans that inflation will slow again, hours before data set to show the fastest pace of price increases since the early 1990s Russia’s ambassador to Washington said more than 50 diplomats and their family members will have to leave the U.S. by mid-2022, in the latest sign of tensions between the former Cold War enemies China sent the biggest sortie of warplanes toward Taiwan in more than seven weeks after a U.S. lawmaker defied a Chinese demand that she abandon a trip to the island A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded cautiously and US equity futures rebounded from Friday’s hefty selling (S&P 500 -2.3%) as all focus remained on the Omicron variant after several countries announced restrictions and their first cases of the new variant, although markets took solace from reports that all cases so far from South Africa have been mild. Furthermore, NIH Director Collins was optimistic that current vaccines are likely to protect against the Omicron variant but also noted it was too early to know the answers, while Goldman Sachs doesn’t think the new variant is a sufficient reason to adjust its portfolio citing comments from South Africa’s NICD that the mutation is unlikely to be more malicious and existing vaccines will most likely remain effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths. ASX 200 (-0.5%) is subdued after Australia registered its first cases of the Omicron variant which involved two people that arrived in Sydney from southern Africa and with the government reviewing its border reopening plans. Nikkei 225 (-1.6%) whipsawed whereby it initially slumped at the open due to the virus fears and currency-related headwinds but then recouped its losses and briefly returned flat as the mood gradually improved, before succumbing to a bout of late selling, and with mixed Retail Sales data adding to the indecision. Hang Seng (-1.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (Unch) weakened with Meituan the worst performer in Hong Kong after posting a quarterly loss and with casino names pressured by a crackdown in which police detained Suncity Group CEO and others after admitting to accusations including illegal cross border gambling. However, the losses in the mainland were cushioned after firm Industrial Profits data over the weekend and with local press noting expectations for China to adopt a more proactive macro policy next year. Finally, 10yr JGBs shrugged off the pullback seen in T-note and Bund futures, with price action kept afloat amid the cautious mood in stocks and the BoJ’s presence in the market for over JPY 900bln of JGBs mostly concentrated in 3yr-10yr maturities. Top Asian News Hong Kong Stocks Slide to 13-Month Low on Fresh Virus Woes Li Auto Loss Narrows as EV Maker Rides Out Supply-Chain Snarls Singapore Adds to Its Gold Pile for the First Time in Decades China Growth Stocks Look Like Havens as Markets Confront Omicron Bourses in Europe are experiencing a mild broad-based rebound (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.0%; Stoxx 600 +0.9%) following Friday's hefty COVID-induced losses. Desks over the weekend have been framing Friday's losses as somewhat overstretched in holiday-thinned liquidity, given how little is known about the Omicron variant itself. The strain will likely remain the market theme as scientists and policymakers factor in this new variant, whilst data from this point forth – including Friday's US labour market report - will likely be passed off as somewhat stale, and headline risk will likely be abundant. Thus far, symptoms from Omicron are seemingly milder than some of its predecessors, although governments and central banks will likely continue to express caution in this period of uncertainty. Back to price action, the momentum of the rebound has lost steam; US equity futures have also been drifting lower since the European cash open – with the RTY (+0.9%) was the laggard in early European trade vs the ES (+0.8%), NQ (+1.0%) and YM (+0.7%). European cash bourses have also been waning off best levels but remain in positive territory. Sectors are mostly in the green, but the breadth of the market has narrowed since the cash open. Travel & Leisure retains the top spot in what seems to be more a reversal of Friday's exaggerated underperformance as opposed to a fundamentally driven rebound – with more nations announcing travel restrictions to stem the spread of the variant. Oil & Gas has also trimmed some of Friday's losses as oil prices see a modest rebound relative to Friday's slump. On the other end of the spectrum, Healthcare sees mild losses as COVID-related names take a mild breather, although Moderna (+9.1% pre-market) gains ahead of the US open after its Chief Medical Officer suggested a new vaccine for the variant could be ready early next year. Meanwhile, Autos & Parts reside as the current laggard amid several bearish updates, including a Y/Y drop in German car exports - due to the chip shortage and supply bottlenecks – factors which the Daimler Truck CEO suggested will lead to billions of Euros in losses. Furthermore, auto supbt.aplier provider Faurecia (-5.9%) trades at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after slashing guidance – again a function of the chip shortage. In terms of Monday M&A, BT (+4.7%) shares opened higher by almost 10% following source reports in Indian press suggesting Reliance Industries is gearing up for a takeover approach of BT – reports that were subsequently rebuffed. Top European News U.K. Mortgage Approvals Fall to 67,199 in Oct. Vs. Est. 70,000 Johnson Matthey Rises on Report of Battery Talks With Tata Gazprom Reports Record Third-Quarter Profit Amid Gas Surge Omicron’s Spread Fuels Search for Answers as WHO Sounds Warning In FX, the Buck has bounced from Friday’s pullback lows on a mixture of short covering, consolidation and a somewhat more hopeful prognosis of SA’s new coronavirus strand compared to very early perceptions prompted by reports that the latest mutation would be even worse than the Delta variant. In DXY terms, a base above 96.000 is forming within a 93.366-144 band amidst a rebound in US Treasury yields and re-steepening along the curve following comments from Fed’s Bostic indicating a willingness to back faster QE tapering. Ahead, pending home sales and Dallas Fed business manufacturing along with more Fed rhetoric from Williams and chair Powell on the eve of month end. AUD/CAD/NZD - No surprise to see the high beta and risk sensitive currencies take advantage of the somewhat calmer conditions plus a recovery in crude and other commodities that were decimated by the prospect of depressed demand due to the aforementioned Omicron outbreak. The Aussie is back over 0.7150 vs its US counterpart, the Loonie has pared back losses from sub-1.2750 with assistance from WTI’s recovery to top Usd 72/brl vs a Usd 67.40 trough on November 26 and the Kiwi is hovering above 0.6800 even though RBNZ chief economist Ha has warned that a pause in OCR tightening could occur if the fresh COVID-19 wave proves to be a ‘game-changer’. JPY/EUR - The major laggards as sentiment stabilses, with the Yen midway between 112.99-113.88 parameters and hardly helped by mixed Japanese retail sales data, while the Euro has retreated below 1.1300 where 1.7 bn option expiry interest resides and a key Fib level just under the round number irrespective of strong German state inflation reports and encouraging pan Eurozone sentiment indicators, as more nations batten down the hatches to stem the spread of SA’s virus that has shown up in parts of the bloc. GBP/CHF - Both narrowly divergent vs the Dollar, as Cable retains 1.3300+ status against the backdrop of retreating Gilt and Short Sterling futures even though UK consumer credit, mortgage lending and approvals are rather conflicting, while the Franc pivots 0.9250 and meanders from 1.0426 to 1.0453 against the Euro after the latest weekly update on Swiss bank sight deposits showing no sign of official intervention. However, Usd/Chf may veer towards 1.1 bn option expiries at the 0.9275 strike if risk appetite continues to improve ahead of KoF on Tuesday and monthly reserves data. SCANDI/EM - Although Brent has bounced to the benefit of the Nok, Sek outperformance has ensued in wake of an upgrade to final Swedish Q3 GDP, while the Cnh and Cny are deriving support via a rise in Chinese industrial profits on a y/y basis and the Zar is breathing a sigh of relief on the aforementioned ‘better’ virus updates/assessments from SA on balance. Conversely, the Try is back under pressure post-a deterioration in Turkish economic sentiment vs smaller trade deficit as investors look forward to CPI at the end of the week. Meanwhile, Turkish President Erdogan provides no reprieve for the Lira as he once again defending his unorthodox view that higher interest rates lead to higher inflation. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures consolidate following an overnight rebound – with WTI Jan back on a USD 71/bbl handle and Brent Feb just under USD 75/bbl – albeit still some way off from Friday's best levels which saw the former's high above USD 78/bbl and the latter's best north of USD 81/bbl. The week is packed with risks to the oil complex, including the resumption of Iranian nuclear talks (slated at 13:00GMT/08:00EST today) and the OPEC+ monthly confab. In terms of the former, little is expected in terms of progress unless the US agrees to adhere to Tehran's demand – which at this point seems unlikely. Tehran continues to seek the removal of US sanctions alongside assurances that the US will not withdraw from the deal. "The assertion that the US must 'change its approach if it wants progress' sets a challenging tone", Citi's analysts said, and the bank also expects parties to demand full access to Iranian nuclear facilities for verification of compliance. Further, the IAEA Chief met with Iranian officials last week; although concrete progress was sparse, the overall tone of the meeting was one of progress. "We remain of the opinion that additional Iranian supplies are unlikely to reach the market before the second half of 2022 at the earliest," Citi said. Meanwhile, reports suggested the US and allies have been debating a "Plan B" if talks were to collapse. NBC News – citing European diplomats, former US officials and experts – suggested that options included: 1) a skinny nuclear deal, 2) ramp up sanctions, 3) Launching operations to sabotage Iranian nuclear advances, 4) Military strikes, 5) persuading China to halt Iranian oil imports, albeit Iran and China recently signed a 25yr deal. Over to OPEC+, a rescheduling (in light of the Omicron variant) sees the OPEC and JTC meeting now on the 1st December, followed by the JMMC and OPEC+ on the 2nd. Sources on Friday suggested that members are leaning towards a pause in the planned monthly output, although Russian Deputy PM Novak hit the wires today and suggested there is no need for urgent measures in the oil market. Markets will likely be tested, and expectations massaged with several sources heading into the meeting later this week. Elsewhere, spot gold trades sideways just under the USD 1,800/oz and above a cluster of DMAs, including the 50 (1,790.60/oz), 200 (1,791.30/oz) and 100 (1,792.80/oz) awaiting the next catalyst. Over to base metals, LME copper recoups some of Friday's lost ground, with traders also citing the underlying demand emanating from the EV revolution. US Event Calendar 10am: Oct. Pending Home Sales YoY, prior -7.2% 10am: Oct. Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. 0.8%, prior -2.3% 10:30am: Nov. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 17.0, prior 14.6 Central Bank speakers: 3pm: Fed’s Williams gives opening remarks at NY Innovation Center 3:05pm: Powell Makes Opening Remarks at New York Fed Innovation Event 3:15pm: Fed’s Hassan moderates panel introducing NY Innovation Center 5:05pm: Fed’s Bowman Discusses Central bank and Indigenous Economies DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Last night Henry in my team put out a Q&A looking at what we know about Omicron (link here) as many risk assets put in their worst performance of the year on Friday after it exploded into view. The main reason for the widespread concern is the incredibly high number of mutations, with 32 on the spike protein specifically, which is the part of the virus that allows it to enter human cells. That’s much more than we’ve seen for previous variants, and raises the prospect it could be a more transmissible version of the virus, although scientists are still assessing this. South Africa is clearly where it has been discovered (not necessarily originated from) and where it has been spreading most. The fact that’s it’s become the dominant strain there in just two weeks hints at its higher level of contagiousness. However the read through to elsewhere is tough as the country has only fully vaccinated 24% of its population, relative to at least 68% in most of the larger developed countries bar the US which languishes at 58%. It could still prove less deadly (as virus variants over time mostly are) but if it is more contagious that could offset this and it could still cause similar healthcare issues, especially if vaccines are less protective. On the other hand the South African doctor who first alerted authorities to the unusual symptoms that have now been found to have been caused by Omicron, was on numerous media platforms over the weekend suggesting that the patients she has seen with it were exhausted but generally had mild symptoms. However she also said her patients were from a healthy cohort so we can’t relax too much on this. However as South African cases rise we will get a lot of clues from hospitalisation data even if only 6% of the country is over 65s. My personal view is that we’ll get a lot of information quite quickly around how bad this variant is. The reports over the weekend that numerous cases of Omicron have already been discovered around the world, suggests it’s probably more widespread than people think already. So we will likely soon learn whether these patients present with more severe illness and we’ll also learn of their vaccination status before any official study is out. The only caveat would be that until elderly patients have been exposed in enough scale we won’t be able to rule out the more negative scenarios. Before all that the level of restrictions have been significantly ramped up over the weekend in many countries. Henry discusses this in his note but one very significant one is that ALL travellers coming into (or back to) the UK will have to self isolate until they get a negative PCR test. This sort of thing will dramatically reduce travel, especially short business trips. Overnight Japan have effectively banned ALL foreign visitors. I appreciate its dangerous to be positive on covid at the moment but you only have to look at the UK for signs that boosters are doing a great job. Cases in the elderly population continue to collapse as the roll out progresses well and overall deaths have dropped nearly 20% over the last week to 121 (7-day average) - a tenth of where they were at the peak even though cases have recently been 80-90% of their peak levels. If Europe are just lagging the UK on boosters rather than anything more structural, most countries should be able to control the current wave all things being equal. However Omicron could make things less equal but it would be a huge surprise if vaccines made no impact. Stocks in Asia are trading cautiously but remember that the US and Europe sold off more aggressively after Asia closed on Friday. So the lack of major damage is insightful. The Nikkei (-0.02%), Shanghai Composite (-0.14%), CSI (-0.22%), KOSPI (-0.47%) and Hang Seng (-0.68%) are only slightly lower. Treasury yields, oil, and equity futures are all rising in Asia. US treasury yields are up 4-6bps across the curve, Oil is c.+4.5% higher, while the ZAR is +1.31%. Equity futures are trading higher with the S&P 500 (+0.71%) and DAX (+0.84%) futures in the green. In terms of looking ahead, we may be heading into December this week but there’s still an incredibly eventful period ahead on the market calendar even outside of Omicron. We have payrolls on Friday which could still have a big impact on what the Fed do at their important December 15 FOMC and especially on whether they accelerate the taper. Wednesday (Manufacturing) and Friday (Services) see the latest global PMIs which will as ever be closely watched even if people will suggest that the latest virus surge and now Omicron variant may make it backward looking. Elsewhere in the Euro Area, we’ll get the flash CPI estimate for November tomorrow (France and Italy on the same day with Germany today), and we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell as he testifies (with Mrs Yellen) before congressional committees tomorrow and Wednesday. There’s lots of other Fed speakers this week (ahead of their blackout from this coming weekend) and last week there was a definite shift towards a faster taper bias, even amongst the doves on the committee with Daly being the most important potential convert. Fed speakers this week might though have to balance the emergence of the new variant with the obvious point that without it the Fed is a fair bit behind the curve. Importantly but lurking in the background, Friday is also the US funding deadline before another government shutdown. History would suggest a tense last minute deal but it’s tough to predict. Recapping last week now and the emergence of the new variant reshaped the whole week even if ahead of this, continued case growth across Europe prompted renewed lockdown measures and travel bans across the continent. Risk sentiment clearly plummeted on Friday. The S&P 500 fell -2.27%, the biggest drop since October 2020, while the Stoxx 600 fell -3.67%, the biggest one-day decline since the original Covid-induced risk off in March 2020. The S&P 500 was -2.20% lower last week, while the Stoxx 600 was down -4.53% on the week. 10yr treasury, bund, and gilt yields declined -16.1bps, -8.7bps, and -14.5bps, undoing the inflation and policy response-driven selloff from earlier in the week. The drop in 10yr treasury and gilt yields were the biggest one-day declines since the original Covid-driven rally in March 2020, while the drop in bund yields was the largest since April 2020. 10yr treasury, bund, and gilt yields ended the week -7.3bps lower, +0.7bps higher, and -5.4bps lower, respectively. Measures of inflation compensation declined due to the anticipated hit to global demand, with 10yr breakevens in the US and Germany -6.8bps and -8.8bps lower Friday, along with Brent and WTI futures declining -11.55% and -13.06%, respectively. Investors pushed back the anticipated timing of rate hikes. As it stands, the first full Fed hike is just about priced for July, and 2 hikes are priced for 2022. This follows a hawkish tone from even the most dovish FOMC members and the November FOMC minutes last week. The prevailing sentiment was the FOMC was preparing to accelerate their asset purchase taper at the December meeting to enable inflation-fighting rate hikes earlier in 2022. Understanding the impact of the new variant will be crucial for interpreting the Fed’s reaction function, though. The impact may not be so obvious; while a new variant would certainly hurt global demand and portend more policy accommodation, it will also likely prompt more virus-avoiding behaviour in the labour market, preventing workers from returning to pre-Covid levels. Whether the Fed decides to accommodate these sidelined workers for longer, or to re-think what constitutes full employment in a Covid world should inform your view on whether they accelerate tapering in December. It feels like a lifetime ago but last week also saw President Biden nominate Chair Powell to head the Fed for another term, and for Governor Brainard to serve as Vice Chair. The announcement led to a selloff in rates as the more dovish Brainard did not land the head job. In Germany, the center-left SPD, Greens, and liberal FDP agreed to a full coalition deal. The traffic-light coalition agreed to restore the debt break in 2023, after being suspended during the pandemic, and to raise the minimum wage to €12 per hour. The SPD’s Olaf Scholz will assume the Chancellorship. The US, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and UK announced releases of strategic petroleum reserves. Oil prices were higher following the announcement, in part because releases were smaller than anticipated but, as mentioned, prices dropped precipitously on Friday on the global demand impact of the new Covid variant. The ECB released the minutes of the October Governing Council meeting, where officials stressed the need to maintain optionality in their policy setting. They acknowledged growing upside risks to inflation but stressed the importance of not overreacting in setting policy as they see how inflation scenarios might unfold. Tyler Durden Mon, 11/29/2021 - 08:01.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytNov 29th, 2021

Generation PMCA 3Q21 Commentary: Right Place Wrong Time

Generation PMCA commentary for the third quarter ended September 2021, titled, “Right Place Wrong Time.” Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Right Place Wrong Time Being in the wrong place at the right time is usually just an inconvenience or in market parlance a missed opportunity. In the wrong place at the wrong […] Generation PMCA commentary for the third quarter ended September 2021, titled, “Right Place Wrong Time.” if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Right Place Wrong Time Being in the wrong place at the right time is usually just an inconvenience or in market parlance a missed opportunity. In the wrong place at the wrong time, you're likely a victim of poor circumstances. For an investor, a poor selection coupled with an unforeseen shock. The opposite—right place at the right time—implies luck. Right place at the wrong time, according to a certain someone’s significant other, means she’s always waiting for someone who’s invariably late. More than a mere inconvenience. While some of our equity selections have recently been operating on their own schedules, and our timing appears off, we still feel we’re in the right places. The adage ‘better late than never’ comes to mind. Fund manager Bruce Berkowitz once quipped that he suffered from premature accumulation. We have felt similarly over the last few months because many of our positions have either lagged or declined outright despite fundamentals that we believe remain intact. Of course, when our positions are zigging while the markets are zagging, we reexamine our assumptions to ensure we are correctly positioned. We believe that only one of our securities suffered permanent impairment relative to our initial appraisal and we realized a loss because we saw better opportunities for the proceeds. We remain confident in our assessments of our other holdings. They trade well below our estimated FMVs (Fair Market Values) implying substantial upside potential. Though we don’t know when the market will come to its senses and see what we see. Regarding the market in general, we feel like the little boy that cried correction. Though he kept calling for it, and was eventually correct, his too frequent calls were ignored. The S&P 500 is at a ceiling in our TRACTM work. From this level, it’s either moving on to the next ceiling, about 30% higher, or returning to its recent floor, over 20% lower. Neither event must take place all at once. However, with the market’s FMV currently lower, the likelihood of a material rise from today’s levels is low. We expect sideways or downward price action for an extended period until underlying values catch up. And, with the absence of the typical wall of worry, any exogenous shock could lead to a rapid decline. Global Traffic Jam Speaking of poor timing, the concept of Just-in-Time inventories, designed to promote efficiencies, contributed to inefficiencies over the last year. Everyone encountered an IKEA (‘Swedish for out of stock’) problem. Demand has simply overwhelmed supply. With the economy essentially closed in the spring of last year, production was scaled back (i.e., a supply squeeze) only to require a substantial ramp-up over the last year as demand surged from massive government stimulus and vaccines which allowed for widespread reopening and a leap in consumer confidence. But this about-face created a logjam. Delivery times have been near record highs which has fueled higher costs and, in turn, increased prices. In the meantime, companies are adapting, finding other sources of supplies, different means of transportation, and implementing productivity enhancing measures. While this does not occur overnight, the congestion will dissipate. The market must believe this is all transitory too because it hasn’t impacted the overall indexes. This, despite staffing shortages which, for example, has caused FedEx to reroute packages and airlines to cancel flights. Companies have had to boost pay for overtime and raise wages to attract new employees. There has been a record backlog of ships at ports because of staffing constraints and calls for the U.S. National Guard to loan terminals which would assist in moving goods. Rolling blackouts due to power shortages in China led to production slowdowns. For diversification purposes, some companies moved a portion of their manufacturing to Vietnam, only to have to cope with Covid related shutdowns. Despite these cost pressures, demand has been overpowering because profit margins remain at all-time highs. The usual semiconductor deficit is a result of excess demand, spurred by work-from-home and advances in digitalization which increased the need for electronic components at a time when supply hasn’t been sufficient to fulfill needs. Since the length of time between ordering a semiconductor chip and taking delivery rose to a record high, nearly double the norm, new plants are being built, many in the U.S. being subsidized by the government. Nearly 30 new fabs will be under construction shortly in various jurisdictions, which is more than opened in the last 5 years combined. Looks like an eventual overshoot. Time Heals All The pendulum will swing in the other direction. The scarcity issues facing us now will beget surpluses. Look no further than the PPE shortages at the outset of the pandemic which were quickly met by increased production ultimately creating surpluses, even with demand still high. A capital goods spending cycle is clearly upon us as companies expand production which also bodes well for continued economic growth. Some of the issues will immediately halt. How about the crazy story of Tapestry (maker of Coach purses and other brands) announcing it’ll stop destroying returned product? Apparently, employees were hacking up merchandise and tossing it. That’s one way of creating a supply constraint, and a PR nightmare. Used car prices hit another record high—the normal ebb and flow gone. Prices have been leaping higher. But with production of new cars expected to be back to near normal over the next several months, used car prices should moderate. Commodity prices have surged too as inventories haven’t been sufficient to keep up with demand. However, nothing cures scarcity better than higher prices which encourages production. These constraints have pushed U.S. inflation to the highest since the mid '90s. While some argue it’s a monetary phenomenon, as central banks have poured money into the system, it appears to us more related to the overall supply/demand imbalances. A step-up in demand for raw materials and labour, when ports became congested, simultaneously increased shipping costs, and led to other logistical bottlenecks, all of which combined to ignite prices. Housing prices have also lifted materially. Single-family home prices in the U.S. have risen by a record 19.7% in the last year because of ever-growing demand (spurred by demographics, the shift to work-from-home, and low rates) and, perhaps more importantly, a dearth of listings. While construction costs are up, house prices have outpaced so new builds will in due course help level off prices. That’ll be the Economics 101 feedback loop between prices/costs and supply/demand at work. Core PCE, the broadest inflation measure, was 3.6% for September, moderating since the April highs, a positive sign. Since supply disruptions are beginning to alleviate, it bodes well for a further diminution of inflationary pressures especially since most of the rise in inflation is attributable to durable goods which have suffered the brunt of the bottlenecks. As consumer spending moves from goods back towards services, this should help too. Though growth rates should slow, we are still experiencing an economic boom. Look no further than global air traffic which, astonishingly, is running virtually at 2019 levels. The March of Time Watching inflation is important because it directly impacts our pocketbooks in the short term and our real-spending power over time. Not only because inflation erodes purchasing power but because it also influences the level of interest rates which affects the valuations of financial assets. Longer-term interest rates are likely heading higher, not just because they’re coming off a really low base or inflation is rising. Serious supply and demand dynamics in the bond market are in-play. Fewer bonds will be bought (tapering) by the Fed, who’s been buying, a previously inconceivable, 60% of all U.S. 10-year Treasury issuances. Yet extremely elevated deficit spending still requires massive government bond offerings, at a time when foreigners and individuals have been disinterested in bonds at such low yields. Increasing rates will be necessary to attract buyers (i.e., create demand). Interest rates should remain relatively low though. Primarily because inflation should remain low as a result of poor demographics (nearly every developed country’s birth rate isn’t sufficient to generate population growth), the strength of the U.S. dollar which is disinflationary, and high government debt. These factors should temper economic growth rates. Q3 U.S. GDP grew by only 2% over last year. Aggregate demand may be weakening just when supply constraints are diminishing. On a good note, lesser growth may bode well for an extended economic cycle with low interest rates and relatively high market valuations as the Fed may not need to quell growth. On the other hand, debt laden Japan’s growth rate was so slow since 2008 that it slipped into recession 5 times while the U.S. suffered only once. For a Bad Time Call… Speculators have been winning big, but it almost never ends well. Right now, speculation is still running hot—too hot. Call option purchases (the right to buy shares at a set price for a fixed period) have leaped. Investment dealers, making markets as counterparties on the other side of the call option trades, buy sufficient shares in the open market to offset (i.e., hedge) their positions. As stocks run higher, and call option prices increase, higher amounts of shares are bought. Tesla’s run-up to recent highs is a good example as call-option buying was extreme and a disproportionate amount of buying was attributable to dealer hedging. On a related side note, Tesla ran to about 43x book value recently. In our TRACTM work that’s one break point, or about 20% below, the 55x book value level that only a small number of mature companies have ever achieved because it is mathematically unsustainable since a company cannot produce a return on equity capital sufficient to maintain that valuation level. Historically, share prices invariably have materially suffered thereafter until underlying fundamentals catch up. This is probably not lost on Elon Musk who has tweeted about the overvaluation of Tesla and just sold billions of dollars of shares. Insiders at other companies have been concerned about their share prices too which has led to an uptick in overall insider selling. Meanwhile, use of margin debt as a percent of GDP is at an all-time high of 4%, about 25% higher than at the market peaks in 2000 and 2007. Purchases of leveraged ETFs are at highs too. U.S. equity issuances (IPOs/SPACs) are also at all-time highs as a percent of GDP. The record addition of supply of shares should cause problems for the stock market, especially if demand for shares suddenly wanes if interest rates spike, profit margins shrink, or an unforeseen negative event occurs. Stock ownership generally has reached a high (50% of household assets) which doesn’t bode well for stock market returns when other asset classes shine again. The NASDAQ is extremely overbought. Similar levels in the recent past have led to double-digit declines. The fact that so much of the major indexes are now concentrated in so few companies could hurt too. Worrisome, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:FB) (Facebook) are all at ceilings or have given “sell signals” in our TRACTM work. Buyout valuations paid by private equity firms has doubled over the last 10 years to levels that don’t make economic sense. Cryptocurrencies may have found a permanent role in the financial system; however, demand is too frothy. Just talk to teenagers or Uber drivers. Since it’s in weak hands, demand already running rampant, prices well above cost of producing coins, and supply virtually unlimited as new cryptos keep cropping up, prices could collapse. The overall hype should soon wither. While markets have already ignored the rise in 10-year Treasury yields, further increases could be harmful. Headline risk from inflation worsening in the short term, and rates rising further in reaction, could spoil the party. Valuations of growth companies are the most vulnerable to rising rates given their higher multiples and the more pronounced impact on cash flows which are further out in time. The forward-12-month S&P 500 earnings multiple is just about 30% above its 10-year average. The earnings yield less the inflation rate is at all-time lows. Earnings estimates themselves are likely too high, which is typically the case. Growth expectations are way above trend as analysts extrapolate the recent spectacular growth. But growth must moderate, if only because the comparison over time becomes much more challenging than last year’s trough. The added boost we’ve experienced from lowered tax rates and share repurchases should disappear too. Profit margins should eventually be negatively impacted. Not just from less sales growth but also from escalating costs, particularly on the labour front. Wage pressures are likely, and productivity may drop for a period, if companies cannot hire qualified workers. Job openings have skyrocketed, and job cuts haven’t been this low since 1997. Teens who’ve just graduated high school in California are training to drive trucks. This may be positive for teen employment but yikes! And global oil inventories have been plummeting. The inventory situation is expected to worsen which could lead to $100, or higher, oil prices, a level that would not be favourable for the economy. Investors generally are still expecting above-average returns for U.S. stocks over the next several years. Meanwhile, since valuations are so high, models that have been historically accurate predicting 10-year returns point to negligible returns. Our Strategy We continue to hedge (by shorting U.S. stock market ETFs in Growth accounts or holding inverse ETFs in registered or long-only accounts) principally because valuations have only been this high on 4 occasions in the last 50 years. Since we are not concerned about a recession, and the bear market that usually accompanies one, we’d like nothing better than to cover our hedges after a meaningful market correction. We sleep well at night knowing that we are partially hedged and that our holdings are growing, high-quality companies that, unlike the overall market, trade at substantial discounts to our estimates of FMV. The track record of most of our holdings shows steadily rising earnings over the last several years. And we foresee further growth ahead. Securities that are already detached from FMV can fall even further away if sentiment worsens. However, it doesn’t mean the companies are worse off, only that they’re temporarily losing the popularity contest. While the prices of our Chinese holdings have not gotten materially worse since last quarter, these holdings are still a drag on the portfolios. Since the ones we own are dominant high-quality companies, now trading at less than 40 cents-on-the-dollar in our view—a 60% off sale, we continue to wait for the end of the bear market in these shares. The entire KWEB, a Chinese Internet/technology ETF, is down 54% since February. Meanwhile, economic growth in China is expected to be 5% annually for the next several years, outpacing the U.S. which is expected to grow by less than 2% per year. By 2030, China should have the largest consuming middle class globally. The Chinese growth engine remains attractive. And the companies we hold continue to grow. With valuations so attractive and the stocks nearly universally shunned, we believe a new uptrend should be close. Our Portfolios The following descriptions of the holdings in our managed accounts are intended only to explain the reasons that we have made, and continue to hold, these investments in the accounts we manage for you and are not intended as advice or recommendations with respect to purchasing, selling or holding the securities described. Below, we discuss each of our new holdings and updates on key holdings if there have been material developments. All Cap Portfolios - Recent Developments for Key Holdings Our All Cap portfolios combine selections from our large cap strategy (Global Insight) with our best small and medium cap ideas. We generally prefer large cap companies for their superior liquidity and lower volatility. Importantly, they tend to recover back to their fair values much faster than smaller stocks, so they can be traded more frequently for enhanced returns. The smaller cap positions are less liquid holdings which are potentially more volatile; however, we hold these positions because they are cheaper, trading far below our FMV estimates making their risk/reward profiles favourable. There were no material changes in our smaller cap holdings recently. All Cap Portfolios - Changes In the last few months, we made several changes within our large cap positions all summarized in the Global Insight section below. Global Insight (Large Cap) Portfolios - Recent Developments for Key Holdings Global Insight represents our large cap model (typically with market caps over $5 billion at the time of purchase but may include those in the $2-5 billion range) where portfolios are managed Long/Short or Long only. A complete description of the Global Insight Model is available on our website. Our target for our large cap positions is more than a 20% return per year over a 2-year period, though some may rise toward our FMV estimates sooner should the market react to more quickly reduce their undervaluations. Or, some may be eliminated if they decline and breach TRAC floors. At an average of about 60 cents-on-the-dollar versus our FMV estimates, our Global Insight holdings appear much cheaper, in aggregate, than the overall market. Global Insight (Large Cap) Portfolios - Changes In the last few months, we made several changes within our large cap positions. We bought Altice USA Inc (NYSE:ATUS) and American Eagle Outfitters Inc (NYSE:AEO). We sold Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) as it achieved or FMV estimate and TAL Education Group (NYSE:TAL) as it became clear we erred in our assessment once the Chinese government essentially eliminated for-profit education and other opportunities provide better reward vs. risk. Altice USA provides broadband, telephone, and television services to nearly 5 million customers across 21 states. Altice saw a surge in subscribers and plan upgrades with the increase in work from home. As people have returned to work, subscriber growth has slowed and become tougher to predict. At the same time, Altice is upgrading its network, leading to higher capital expenditures, lower free cash flow, and a moderation in share repurchases. Trading at over $35 at the end of last year, shares now trade near $17. We believe investors have become too focused on near-term subscriber trends and not the attractive long-term metrics of the business. Altice should generate close to $1.5 billion in free cash flow and see solid subscriber growth as network upgrades and fresh marketing initiatives bear fruit. Not unlike its peers, Altice carries a large debt-load. Though, management expects debt to decline even as spending accelerates and there are no material debt maturities before 2025. Our FMV estimate is $40. We believe there are numerous avenues for Altice to close the gap between its current share price and its intrinsic value. With large insider ownership already, a management-led buyout would not surprise us. American Eagle Outfitters is a vastly different company than it was just a few years ago. Gone are the days of chasing sales and market share. Management is now laser-focused on cash flow generation, return on investment, and total shareholder return (i.e., stock appreciation, dividends, and share buybacks). Its intimate apparel Aerie brand has metrics that top the retail field and is now close to 50% of revenue, on track to exceed $2 billion in revenue. Meanwhile, American Eagle continues to dominate denim. Years of investments in logistics and its supply chain are paying off. With disruptions everywhere, Eagle’s in-house logistics operations are now a major competitive advantage, enabling the company to achieve higher sales and margins on far less inventory. Our FMV estimate is $35. Income Holdings High-yield corporate bond yields have climbed slightly but at 4.4% remain near all-time lows. Our income holdings have an average current annual yield (income we receive as a percent of current market value of income securities held) of about 5%. Though most of our income holdings - bonds, preferred shares, REITs, and income funds—trade below our FMV estimates, attractive new income opportunities are still not easily found. We have our sights on several securities; however, we believe more attractive entry price points should avail themselves in the months ahead, either as rates rise and bond yields decline or as share prices correct, whether on a case-by-case basis or because of an overall market setback. We recently purchased, VICI Properties, one of the largest U.S. REITs, whose properties include 60 leading casinos (e.g., Caesar’s Palace, MGM, Mirage). Leases are long term with built-in escalators, provide high margins, required capital expenditures are low, and lease renewals are all but guaranteed as the behemoth tenants can’t simply relocate. It yields 5.1% and our FMV estimate is $39, well above the price. We also bought FS KKR Capital, one of the largest U.S. BDCs (business development corp.). The company utilizes its own investment-grade balance sheet (it borrowed $1.25 billion recently at 2.5%) to lend, mostly on a senior-secured basis, mainly to private middle-market U.S. companies. Despite delivering several good quarters recently, it trades at just over a 20% discount to its net asset value and sports an 11.6% dividend yield. All in Good Time We remain concerned about several factors, primarily high market valuations, which could trigger a market decline and reestablish a wall of worry. The average S&P 500 high-to-low annual decline since 1980 has been about 14%. In the last year, it’s only suffered just shy of a 6% correction. Prices have risen too far above underlying values and should revert. Many of our holdings, in contrast, have gone in the other direction, already enduring their own bear markets. We don’t expect to be right all the time. Nor do we need to be, to have respectable performance. But we’ve suffered unduly recently. We can’t turn back time and alter our selections. And we certainly don’t wish to rush time. Time is precious. But we do believe that good things happen to those who wait. And we will continue to wait patiently, biding our time, because our process is designed to select out-of-favour securities, the ones that are underappreciated but whose quality businesses we expect to advance, causing the disconnect between prices and values to alleviate, all in good time. We look forward to recovering from our recent lull and notes from clients stating, “It’s about time!” Randall Abramson, CFA Herb Abramson Generation PMCA Corp. Updated on Nov 26, 2021, 2:09 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkNov 26th, 2021

Why Are Insiders Still Buying Their Own Stocks?

The insiders buy when they see more upside on the horizon. Pure and simple. Tracey does all the research to find that elusive edge that leads to higher returns for them... and you. The coronavirus stock market sell-off in March 2020 happened so quickly, it was the fastest bear market in history.But the rebound was just as quick.The time to get in was so short, that even famed Value Investor Warren Buffett didn’t jump in and nab any stock deals during that time.And as stocks climbed, and then climbed some more in 2021, many investors were paralyzed and sat on the sidelines.After some stocks soared 200% or even 300%, how can you know which stocks still have gas left in the tank?There’s a secret to being a fearless investor, even when stocks are at new highs.You have to find an edge.They Bought the Rally While many investors were too scared to buy stocks on their highs, there was a group of investors who dove into some of these red-hot names anyway: the corporate insiders.You know them. The directors, the head of R&D, the CFO, the general counsel, and others.Many of them were STILL buying even after their stocks hit new all-time highs this year.What would propel an insider to buy more shares, using their own cash, after the stock has had a huge rally?Greed!Pure and simple.The opportunity to make more money motivates people - even people who are already well off like highly-paid CEOs and directors.Continued . . .------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Insider Trade Alert: Get In NowWhen in-the-know officers dip into their own pockets to buy shares of their own company, there’s only one reason: They expect the stock price to go up.Zacks is now targeting insider moves that include a massive “Cluster Buy” at an under-the-radar, under $10 financial small-cap. The CEO, CFO, and 8 Directors just paid more than $1.8 million to take advantage of what must be an exceptional opportunity. The stock had pulled back. Earnings estimates are soaring. It’s time to get in on this action.Our recommendations are normally closed to public view – but you can still see them until midnight Sunday, November 28.Catch our hand-picked insider trades now >>------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The Signal to Buy at the Highs The insiders buy because they believe there is more upside.They know what’s going on behind the scenes at the company and they know that business is good. Maybe it is a new product. Or contract. Or pending merger. Or their backlog is at record highs.Or that those hot sales during the pandemic in 2020, continued into 2021 and are still remaining red hot heading into 2022.Whatever the reason, these insiders were confident that the shares still had even further to rise, despite them being at new highs.They believe. After all, who would buy more stock in a company if they knew it was sinking?And why would you buy at the top if all the good news was already priced in?When things at the company are THAT good, insiders don’t want to miss out. They want even more shares.Real Life Insiders Buying in Red Hot Industries The auto rental industry was initially a pandemic loser, as business travel dried up, and then leisure travel followed, which led to a collapse in the rental car market.But by 2021, the leisure travel market, where people wanted to hit the open road, was coming back. And with it, so did the rental car business.Avis Budget Group, one of the largest rental car companies in the United States, is forecast to grow revenue by 65.1% in 2021.Initially, Avis Budget shares rallied off their Mar 30, 2020 coronavirus lows to gain 154% by the end of 2020.But the shares continued to rally in the new year as rental car demand accelerated on the vaccine rollout.Shares have soared 723% in 2021.Diving in at the Highs Yet the insiders dove in to buy even after the shares had rallied.In Feb 2021, the Avis Budget CFO bought thousands of shares in two separate buys as the stock was breaking out and hitting new highs.The first purchase was for $1.089 million and the second, just 6 days later, for $556,000.He dove in TWICE.Since the first buy on Feb 19, the shares are up another 535%.But the insiders did not sit on the sidelines even as the shares continued to climb higher through the first half of the year.On May 12, 2021, the Executive Chairman and Director, bought 63,000 shares for $5 million even though he had thousands of shares already.What did he know?Shares are up another 308.2% since his big May purchase.Buy When the Insiders Buy  When high-level insiders buy, they are required to report the purchases to the SEC within 48 hours of the trade. The trade then becomes public information.Hedge funds and other professional investors routinely use this information to get an edge on their trades.They buy when the insiders buy.For most of us, though, it’s not easy to get access to insider information.While the media will tout the huge insider buys from celebrity CEOs like Elon Musk, you’ll rarely hear about the non-celebrity CEOs, or other top-ranked officers when they buy their stocks.Was anyone talking about the Avis Budget Executive Chairman’s big $5 million May 2021 purchase?The challenge is getting easy and reliable access to all the insider trades and then figuring out which ones to buy.Where to Find the Best Insider Buys Anyone can go on the SEC website and get the insider trading information, but it’s time-consuming to search by individual companies, especially now that they’ve revamped the SEC website and made it even less user-friendly.Some investment firms collect the insider buying data and can provide it to you as a daily list. Have you ever seen one of those lists? The sheer number of companies can be overwhelming.And those lists don’t usually separate the insiders who are buying at the highs.Even if you got a list of the insiders who are getting in at the highs and those who are buying the deals, how would you narrow it down to the stocks that are truly worth buying? If I’m going to buy when the insiders are buying, I want to buy only their top picks.To identify the most promising signals, Zacks' research team developed a strategy that monitors selected insider buying activity at companies that already show strong earnings and valuations.Today only 10 stocks meet our demanding criteria.We invite you to look into our Insider Trader portfolio now.Massive Cluster Buy Just Added You'll find live recommendations, including an under-$10 financial small-cap that just about everyone in its board room is jumping on.The CEO, CFO, and not 1 or 2 but 8 Directors just poured over $1.8 million from their own wallets to snap up hundreds of thousands of shares.Obviously, they must have held a very interesting board meeting.The good news is that you can still join the feeding frenzy at this company, but your opportunity won't last much longer.Bonus: Just for exploring our insider stocks, you can download Zacks' Special Report, 5 Stocks Set to Double, free of charge. These 5 long-term buy-and-holds balance our more active Insider Trader moves. Each is the #1 favorite of a Zacks expert for its potential to jump +100% or more over the next year.Important note: Access to the Insider Trader portfolio and Special Report is limited. This opportunity ends midnight Sunday, November 28th.See our insider trades and download 5 Stocks Set to Double now >>Best,Tracey RyniecEditor of Insider TraderTracey Ryniec, Zacks' insider and value strategist, is Editor in Charge of the Insider Trader portfolio. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksNov 26th, 2021

Franchise Group (FRG) Is Up 2.45% in One Week: What You Should Know

Does Franchise Group (FRG) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at Franchise Group (FRG), which currently has a Momentum Style Score of B. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Franchise Group currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?In order to see if FRG is a promising momentum pick, let's examine some Momentum Style elements to see if this tax preparer holds up.A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short-term price activity, as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand. It is also useful to compare a security to its industry, as this can help investors pinpoint the top companies in a particular area.For FRG, shares are up 2.45% over the past week while the Zacks Consumer Products - Staples industry is down 3.23% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 34.33% compares favorably with the industry's 3.24% performance as well.While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. Over the past quarter, shares of Franchise Group have risen 40.2%, and are up 83.44% in the last year. On the other hand, the S&P 500 has only moved 5.11% and 30.89%, respectively.Investors should also pay attention to FRG's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. FRG is currently averaging 203,424 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with FRG.Over the past two months, 3 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost FRG's consensus estimate, increasing from $3.55 to $3.81 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 3 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.Bottom LineTaking into account all of these elements, it should come as no surprise that FRG is a #2 (Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of B. If you've been searching for a fresh pick that's set to rise in the near-term, make sure to keep Franchise Group on your short list. Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple-Digit Profit Potential The biotech sector is projected to surge beyond $2.4 trillion by 2028 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases. They’re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases. Zacks has just released Century of Biology: 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance. Recommendations from previous editions of this report have produced gains of +205%, +258% and +477%. The stocks in this report could perform even better.See these 7 breakthrough stocks now>>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Franchise Group, Inc. (FRG): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksNov 25th, 2021

What Makes Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) a Strong Momentum Stock: Buy Now?

Does Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even though momentum is a popular stock characteristic, it can be tough to define. Debate surrounding which are the best and worst metrics to focus on is lengthy, but the Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at Live Oak Bancshares (LOB), which currently has a Momentum Style Score of B. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Live Oak Bancshares currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?In order to see if LOB is a promising momentum pick, let's examine some Momentum Style elements to see if this bank holding company holds up.A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short-term price activity, as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand. It is also useful to compare a security to its industry, as this can help investors pinpoint the top companies in a particular area.For LOB, shares are up 4.08% over the past week while the Zacks Banks - Southeast industry is down 0.68% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 32.48% compares favorably with the industry's 4.72% performance as well.While any stock can see its price increase, it takes a real winner to consistently beat the market. That is why looking at longer term price metrics -- such as performance over the past three months or year -- can be useful as well. Shares of Live Oak Bancshares have increased 55.65% over the past quarter, and have gained 111.56% in the last year. On the other hand, the S&P 500 has only moved 5.11% and 30.89%, respectively.Investors should also pay attention to LOB's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. LOB is currently averaging 310,499 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with LOB.Over the past two months, 3 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost LOB's consensus estimate, increasing from $3.59 to $3.78 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 4 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.Bottom LineTaking into account all of these elements, it should come as no surprise that LOB is a #2 (Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of B. If you've been searching for a fresh pick that's set to rise in the near-term, make sure to keep Live Oak Bancshares on your short list. Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple-Digit Profit Potential The biotech sector is projected to surge beyond $2.4 trillion by 2028 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases. They’re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases. Zacks has just released Century of Biology: 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance. Recommendations from previous editions of this report have produced gains of +205%, +258% and +477%. The stocks in this report could perform even better.See these 7 breakthrough stocks now>>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. (LOB): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksNov 25th, 2021

Futures Drift Higher In Quiet, Holiday Session

Futures Drift Higher In Quiet, Holiday Session US equity futures rose (ahead of a cash session that is closed for Thanksgiving holiday), European stocks were mixed and Asian snapped a three-day losing streak on Thursday, hurt by the U.S. dollar which continued to march higher as investors bet on interest rates rising more quickly in the United States than in other major economies such as Japan and the euro zone. Overnight Goldman (which only a few weeks ago brought forward its liftoff forecast by one year to July 2002) said that it now expects the Fed "to announce at its December meeting that it is doubling the pace of tapering to $30bn per month starting in January." That forecast, however, has not spooked futures with S&P 500 and Nasdaq eminis rising by 7 points (0.14%) and 28 points (0.17%) respectively, in a listless session - trading volumes on the MSCI’s gauge of world equities slid 18% from its 30-day average. The dollar rose again, hitting a fresh 16-month high. Remy Cointreau SA jumped 11% in Europe on an earnings beat. Base metals rallied, with nickel near the highest level in seven years. Unlike recent sharp drawdowns, on Wednesday U.S. stocks proved resilient to a slew of strong economic data and Fed minutes on Wednesday that hinted at stagflationary concerns and supported expectations for a quicker removal of stimulus by the Fed. And while inflation concerns deepened, and traders appeared in no mood to miss a year-end calendar meltup, rising bets not only for a quicker taper, but also an earlier liftoff of interest rates, suggest caution may return after Thanksgiving. “The market mood is rather OK-ish after the minutes,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note. “At this point, it makes sense to expect an earlier, and maybe a steeper rate normalization from the Fed.” European stocks traded off opening highs with Euro Stoxx 50 up as much as 0.7% before stalling and trading up 0.25% last. Utilities, tech and financial services are the strongest performers; travel remains under pressure as Covid measures are still in focus. MSCI’s global equity benchmark headed for the biggest advance since Nov. 16 as European traders shrugged off a worsening Covid-19 situation in the continent. The Stoxx 600 gauge was boosted by utilities and real estate companies. Remy Cointreau soared to a record high after the French distiller reported first-half results that Citigroup Inc. called “truly exceptional.” Earlier in the session, Asian equities were poised to snap a three-day losing streak, as traders continued to weigh the prospects of higher inflation and faster-than-expected tapering by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.3% Thursday, with Japanese stocks among the leaders as the dollar held a three-day advance against the yen. In Hong Kong, shares of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd's (1638.HK) rose as much as 24% on their return to trading, after the embattled Chinese developer said it was offering bondholders an option to exchange existing bonds with new bonds having an extended maturity, to improve financial stability. In India, Reliance shares returned to a price level reached prior to the scrapping of the Indian conglomerate’s deal with Saudi Aramco.  Asian stocks are hovering near a six-week low as a strong dollar remains a headwind for emerging-market equities, while higher U.S. Treasury yields have dragged down technology and other growth stocks around the region. The latest Fed minutes suggested it will accelerate the pace of tapering and rate hikes if inflation persistently stays above the targeted rate and maintains its uptrend, said Banny Lam, head of research at CEB International Investment. “Strong dollar concerns remain intact on earlier-than-expected rate hikes, intensifying the inflation of emerging markets.” South Korean stocks were among the biggest decliners after the nation’s central bank hiked its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1%, as expected, citing faster inflation. In broad terms, "when it comes to regional equities allocation, we're watching the U.S. dollar which is making new highs and that is a headwind for emerging market equities," said Fook-Hien Yap, senior investment strategist at Standard Chartered Bank wealth management. "The market is now pricing in more than two hikes next year, but we think that is overly aggressive. We are only looking for about one hike next year," said Yap. These expectations have pushed U.S. treasury yields higher, albeit inconsistently, with benchmark 10 year notes last yielding 1.6427% having risen as high as 1.6930% on Wednesday. U.S. Treasuries will not trade on Thursday because of the Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. stock markets will also be closed and will have a shortened session on Friday. Sure enough, fixed income markets are quiet. Bund and gilt curves bull flatten a touch, cash Treasuries remain closed for Thanksgiving. In other central bank news, the Bank of Korea raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, as widely expected, as concern about rising household debt and inflation offset uncertainty around a resurgence in COVID-19 cases. In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index recovered Asia’s small weakness to trade flat. SEK is the best performer in G-10 with EUR/SEK down 0.4% after the Riksbank tweaked inflation forecasts slightly and signaled that they see a case for a higher benchmark rate in 2024. NZD and AUD lag with most majors trading a narrow range. The dollar is trading near its highest in almost five years versus the Japanese currency at 115.3 yen, and nearly 18 months to the euro which was at $1.1206. In commodities, oil prices were mixed after a turbulent few days in which the United States said it would release millions of barrels of oil from strategic reserves in coordination with China, India, South Korea, Japan and Britain to try to cool oil prices after calls to OPEC+ to pump more went unheeded. However, investors laughed at the programme's effectiveness, leading to price gains. Brent crude was last at $82.14 a barrel, down 0.1%. Action continued to heat up in the base metals market. Nickel rose in London toward the highest level since May 2014 on a closing basis as shrinking inventories pointed to tight supply. Aluminum and copper extended their two-day increase to at least 2% each. Looking at the day ahead, it's a fairly quiet calendar given the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. On the central bank side however, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Villeroy, Elderson and Schnabel, along with BoE Governor Bailey and the BoE’s Haskel. On top of that, the ECB will release the account of their October meeting, and data releases include the German GfK consumer confidence reading for December. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equities traded mixed following on from the tentative mood in US where the major indices headed into the Thanksgiving holiday with a slight positive bias although upside was capped as participants digested a deluge of mixed data releases and hawkish leaning FOMC Minutes which suggested an increased likelihood of a taper adjustment. ASX 200 (+0.1%) was choppy as outperformance in tech and miners was counterbalanced by losses in consumer stocks, energy and the top-weighted financials sector, while mixed capex data which showed a larger than expected contraction for Q3 further added to the headwinds. Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) outperformed and reclaimed the 29,500 level after the recent favourable currency flows and stimulus optimism with Japan considering offering a JPY 5k inbound travel subsidy and is planning a JPY 22.1tln government bond sale as part of economic stimulus and extra budget. KOSPI (-0.4%) softened amid a widely expected 25bps rate hike by the BoK and with BoK Governor Lee suggesting the potential for another hike in Q1 next year. Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) lacked direction amid ongoing frictions including issues related to Taiwan and after the US Commerce Department placed 12 Chinese companies/entities on its entity list due to national security concerns, while EU ambassadors approved to renew sanctions on four Chinese officials and one Chinese entity for human rights abuses. However, the downside for Chinese bourses was limited after another tepid PBoC liquidity effort and with a local press report noting that China is to use more fiscal policy to support growth. There were also reports that Chengdu city launched measures to help developers with cash problems in obtaining funds, while Kaisa Group shares saw a double-digit percentage jump on reopen from a three-week trading halt after it offered to exchange bonds for new bonds with an extended maturity in an effort to improve financial stability and remain afloat. Finally, 10yr JGBs were rangebound after the sideways price action seen in global counterparts and cautious risk tone in Asia, while the results of the latest 40yr JGB auction were also inconclusive with a weaker b/c offset by an increase in the low price. European cash equities (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%; Stoxx 600 +0.2%) trade on a modestly in the green but off best levels as bourses’ attempt to reclaim some of the lost ground seen throughout the week somewhat lost momentum, with the Stoxx 600 down 1.3% WTD. Macro drivers for the region remain a combination of this week’s (slightly stale) survey metrics, ECB speak and COVID angst with the latter providing a bulk of the direction for European assets this week. The handover from the APAC region was a somewhat mixed one as the Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) continued to benefit from favourable currency flows and ongoing stimulus hopes whilst Chinese stocks (Shanghai Comp -0.2%) digested a combination of US-China tensions over Taiwan, EU sanctions on China and expectations of domestic fiscal measures to support growth. Futures in the US (ahead of the early close) are currently on a mildly firmer footing (ES +0.3%) however, traders will likely not pay much credence to these moves given that the cash markets are closed today. The latest BofA flow show noted that stocks saw just their second week of outflows for the year, albeit equities have posted USD 839bln of inflows in 2021 which is more than the USD 785bln seen in the past 19 years combined. Elsewhere, SocGen is of the view that the bull market is not over for European equities and the cycle has further room to run into next year as inflation peaks and Fed-ECB policy diverges. SocGen’s end-2022 target of 520 implies a 9% upside from current levels. Sectors in Europe are mostly firmer with the Food & Beverage sector a top performer amid gains in Remy Cointreau (+11%) who sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 post-earnings which saw the Co. raise its profit outlook. In sympathy, Pernod Ricard (+2.0%), Campari (+1.1%) and Diageo (+0.8%) are all seen higher. To the downside, Travel & Leisure names lag amid ongoing losses in sector-heavyweight Evolution (-5.6%) with the latest update for the Co. noting it has contacted New Jersey regulators and launched an internal probe following accusations the company is conducting business in US blacklisted countries. Also of note for the sector, reports suggest that the EU is set to endorse a 9-month limit on COVID-19 vaccine validity in travel. Finally, Vivo Energy (+20%) is seen higher on the session after Vitol reached an agreement to purchase the Co. for USD 1.85/shr. In FX, the index sees a mild pullback in early European trade on Thanksgiving Day Holiday, after notching a fresh YTD peak yesterday at 96.938 with traders also weighing end-of-month flows. Yesterday's FOMC Minutes had little impact on the Buck, but the release stated the Fed should be prepared to adjust the pace of asset purchases and raise the target range for FFR sooner if inflation continued to run higher than levels consistent with the Fed objective. Some participants preferred a somewhat faster pace of reductions. DXY trades within a narrow 96.649-832 range. Ahead, the calendar is empty from a US standpoint. EUR, GBP - The single currency stands are the current G10 winner, albeit within narrow ranges in holiday-thinned trade. Desks suggest that light short-covering may warrant given the recent COVID-led downside. On the COVID front, reports suggested the EU is to endorse a 9-month limit on COVID-19 vaccine validity in travel. Sources earlier in the week suggested that updated EU travel guidance will likely be released today, whilst France is also today poised to provide more colour on COVID-related restrictions. EUR/USD has reclaimed a 1.1200 handle but trades within yesterday's 1.1184-1.1250 range. GBP/USD meanwhile is relatively flat within a 20-pip parameter, with not much to report aside from overnight commentary highlighting the 'substantial distance' between the UK and EU on the Northern Ireland protocol. Ahead, participants will be on the lookout for commentary from BoE governor Bailey and Haskel. Note, some participants also highlight chunky OpEx tomorrow in GBP/USD comprising of some GBP 1.3bln around 1.3400-10. AUD, NZD - Antipodeans are on the back foot, with the NZD continuing to lag post-RBNZ and following a narrower NZ trade deficit as the AUD/NZD cross inches closer towards 1.0500 after confirming support around the 1.0450 region. AUD/USD was unfazed by lower-than-expected Q3 Aussie Capex. Desks highlight support at 0.7170 (Sept 29th low) ahead of the YTD low at 0.7106. Technicians may also be cognizant of the 21 DMA (0.7346) set to cross through the 100 DMA (0.7346) and 50 DMA (0.7344). JPY - The JPY is relatively flat on the day within a 115.30-45 band, with desks suggesting bids are eye towards 115.00 and offers above 115.50. OpEx is interesting; USD/JPY sees USD 1.2bln between 115.10 and around USD 800mln at strike 115.50. SEK, HUF - The Riksbank maintained its Rate at 0.00% and asset holdings unchanged as expected and said the repo rate will be raised in the latter part of 2024 – with the Q4 2024 rate path seen averaging at 0.19%. Overall, the decision was in-line with expectations. The SEK saw some modest upside heading into the announcement, but on the largely as-expected release, EUR/SEK remained in proximity to the pre-announcement level of 10.20. Meanwhile, the Hungarian Central Bank announced a 40bps hike to its 1-week Repo Rate in an expected but unscheduled move. EUR/HUF moved from 367.25 to 365.40 on the hike. In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are choppy following the earlier softness at the start of the session, which was seemingly a function of a mild deterioration across equity markets, also coinciding with Ifax reports that the US is trying to persuade Russia to lift oil output. Sticking with OPEC+, the morning also saw commentary out of Kuwait and the UAE, who both signalled open-mindedness heading into next week’s meeting, although WSJ sources yesterday suggested the UAE does not see the need to pause current plans. WTI Jan has dipped back under USD 78/bbl (vs high USD 76.65/bbl) while Brent Feb resides just north of USD 80.50/bbl (vs high 81.40/bbl). Ahead, participants will be balancing OPEC+ sources and commentary to get a more solid idea on which route the group will likely take next week. Elsewhere, spot gold remains caged within a cluster of DMAs including the 100 (1,793), 200 (1,791) and 50 (1,789). Base metals are once again firmer with traders citing bullish commentary on Chinese infrastructure. LME copper inches closer towards USD 10k/t whilst Dalian iron ore futures overnight stretched their rally to a fifth consecutive session, spot prices topped USD 100/t. DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A reminder that this week we published our 2022 credit strategy outlook. See here for the full report. Craig has also put out a more detailed HY 2022 strategy document here and Karthik a more detailed IG equivalent here. Basically we think spreads will widen as much as 30-40bps in IG and 120-160bps in HY due to a response to a more dramatic appreciation of the Fed being well behind the curve. This sort of move is consistent with typical mid-cycle ranges through history. We do expect this to mostly retrace in H2 as markets recover from the shock and growth remains decent and liquidity still high. Today will likely prove a quieter one in markets given the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. But ahead of that, risk assets eventually climbed a wall of worry yesterday as investors moved to dial up their hawkish bets on the Fed’s policy trajectory, just as the latest Covid wave in Europe further contributed to investor concerns. Nevertheless, after trading in the red most of the day, global equity markets just managed to finish the day in positive territory, with the S&P 500 gaining +0.23% and the STOXX 600 advancing +0.09%. First, on the hawkish Fed policy trajectory, our US economics team updated their calls to expect just that. In a note yesterday (link here), they outlined expectations for the Fed to double the pace of tapering at the December FOMC meeting following better-than-expected inflation and employment data since the November FOMC. This would bring monthly reductions in Treasury purchases to $20bn and MBS purchases to $10bn, which would bring the end of taper forward to March. In line, they’re bringing their call for liftoff forward a month to June 2022. Our econ team weren’t the only ones to adjust their outlook. San Francisco Fed President Daly, one of the biggest doves on the FOMC and a voter in December, said in an interview that, “if (strong inflation and jobs data continue) then those are the things that would say, looks like we need faster tapering”. Furthermore, she also said that “I am very open and, in fact, leaning towards that we’ll want to raise rates from the zero lower bound at the end of next year”. So if one of the Fed’s biggest doves is feeling this way, then that showcases the shift in thinking that could be taking place more broadly on the committee. Front-end US rates sold off following the comment and yesterday’s data releases, which did nothing to change the recent hawkish turn from Fed officials. In fact, by the close of trade investors were fully pricing in a hike by June, and pricing about two-thirds probability of a May hike. They are still projecting three full hikes in the next calendar year. You’ll know from the credit outlook that we continue to think the Fed is way behind the curve and that catch-up will likely cause some volatility in H1 with notably wider credit spreads. See the link at the top for more on our view. Those moves were given some fresh impetus by stronger-than-expected US data, of which plenty arrived in advance of the holiday today. First, the weekly initial jobless claims for the week through November 20 fell to 199k (vs. 260k expected), which is their lowest level since 1969 and the first time we’ve seen a reading comfortably around or beneath their levels immediately before the pandemic. Claims are always a bit all over the place around Thanksgiving due to seasonal adjustments so we may need a couple of weeks before the trend can be confirmed. Secondly, we then had the second estimate of Q3 GDP in the US, which was revised up a tenth to show an annualised growth rate of +2.1%. Third, the personal income and spending data came in above expectations in October, with personal income up +0.5%, and personal spending up +1.3%, which in both cases was three-tenths higher than expected. And finally, although the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index was still at a decade low, the final measure came in at 67.4, above the preliminary reading of 66.8. Long-term inflation expectations edged back up a tenth to 3.0%, where it was in September and May this year, the joint highest readings since 2013. All that created additional momentum in front-end US rates, with the 2yr yield (+2.6bps) and the 5yr yield (+0.3bps) both rising to fresh post-pandemic highs as the prospect of faster tapering and earlier rate hikes came into view. That put further upward pressure on the dollar as well, with the index strengthening by +0.33% yesterday to hit a 16-month high, having now risen by over +6% since its low in late May just 6 months ago. Of course the flip side was that a number of currencies shifted lower vis-à-vis the dollar, and the euro dipped below the $1.12 mark at the end of the day for the first time since June 2020. Amidst the moves higher in front-end Treasury yields, another round of curve flattening saw longer-dated ones fall back yesterday, with the 10yr yield down -3.1bps to 1.63%. That flattening took the 5s30s curve down -6.9bps to its lowest level since the initial market turmoil at the start of the pandemic back in March 2020, having fallen by over 100bps since its intraday high back in February. 2s10s twisted -5.7bps flatter as well, as investors priced in near-term Fed policy action that could engender a hard landing that hurts longer term growth. It was a different picture in Europe however, where curves steepened for the most part and the moves lower in long-end rates were much more subdued. By the close, yields on 10yr bunds (-0.8bps), OATs (+0.0bps) and BTPs (+1.3bps) had seen relatively little movement, as investors continue to expect that the ECB will take a much more cautious approach to raising rates relative to the Fed. Overnight in Asia markets are again mixed but being led by the Nikkei (+0.68%) and the Hang Seng (+0.14%), while the Shanghai Composite (-0.10%), CSI (-0.31%) and KOSPI (-0.34%) are losing ground. In a widely expected move the Bank of Korea raised rates for a second time since August, taking the policy rate to 1.0%. The BOK revised its inflation outlook to 2.3% for 2021 and 2% for 2022 which was expected. Futures markets are higher with the S&P 500 (+0.28%) and DAX (+0.35%) trading in the green. Treasuries are closed. Back to yesterday, and one of the main pieces of news came from Germany, where there was finally confirmation that the centre-left SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP had agreed a full coalition deal. In terms of the economic measures, the notable ones include a restoration of the debt brake from 2023, which has been suspended during the pandemic, as well as an increase in the minimum wage to €12 per hour. We’ll wait to see if dealing with the climate emergency is carved out to some degree from the debt brake. I suspect it will be in some form. Assuming the deal is agreed by each of the parties, who will put the agreement to internal party approval processes, that could see the SPD’s Olaf Scholz become Chancellor in the week commencing December 6, bringing an end to Chancellor Merkel’s 16-year tenure. That new coalition will be coming into office at a difficult time in light of the latest covid wave across Europe, and in his remarks yesterday, Scholz said that they would consider targeted vaccination mandates for those working with vulnerable groups. That came as the Bild newspaper reported that Chancellor Merkel asked the members of the new coalition to impose a 2-week nationwide lockdown, but this was rejected in a meeting on Tuesday evening. Overnight Germany reported 75,961 new cases, up from 66,884 on Tuesday. Other countries are also moving to ramp up restrictions across the continent, with French health minister Veran expected to announce fresh measures at a news conference today, whilst Italy approved new curbs on the unvaccinated, including entry restrictions to enter restaurants and cinemas. Elsewhere, Slovakia announced a new lockdown that will see residents only permitted to leave home for work, education, or essential activities, with the closure of restaurants and non-essential shops for two weeks. A reminder that we are adding a daily G7 plus important country new cases chart every day in this email blast and a fatalities chart in the full pdf under “view report”. The day ahead has a fairly quiet calendar given the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. On the central bank side however, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Villeroy, Elderson and Schnabel, along with BoE Governor Bailey and the BoE’s Haskel. On top of that, the ECB will release the account of their October meeting, and data releases include the German GfK consumer confidence reading for December. Tyler Durden Thu, 11/25/2021 - 08:40.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 25th, 2021

What Makes Camden (CPT) a Strong Momentum Stock: Buy Now?

Does Camden (CPT) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at Camden (CPT), a company that currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B. We also talk about price change and earnings estimate revisions, two of the main aspects of the Momentum Style Score.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Camden currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?Let's discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for CPT that show why this real estate investment trust shows promise as a solid momentum pick.A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short-term price activity, as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand. It is also useful to compare a security to its industry, as this can help investors pinpoint the top companies in a particular area.For CPT, shares are up 0.36% over the past week while the Zacks REIT and Equity Trust - Residential industry is flat over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 5.21% compares favorably with the industry's 1.62% performance as well.While any stock can see its price increase, it takes a real winner to consistently beat the market. That is why looking at longer term price metrics -- such as performance over the past three months or year -- can be useful as well. Shares of Camden have increased 11.69% over the past quarter, and have gained 67.26% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved 5.02% and 32.65%, respectively.Investors should also pay attention to CPT's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. CPT is currently averaging 515,349 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with CPT.Over the past two months, 4 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost CPT's consensus estimate, increasing from $5.24 to $5.31 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 4 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.Bottom LineGiven these factors, it shouldn't be surprising that CPT is a #2 (Buy) stock and boasts a Momentum Score of B. If you're looking for a fresh pick that's set to soar in the near-term, make sure to keep Camden on your short list. Zacks’ Top Picks to Cash in on Artificial Intelligence This world-changing technology is projected to generate $100s of billions by 2025. From self-driving cars to consumer data analysis, people are relying on machines more than we ever have before. Now is the time to capitalize on the 4th Industrial Revolution. Zacks’ urgent special report reveals 6 AI picks investors need to know about today.See 6 Artificial Intelligence Stocks With Extreme Upside Potential>>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Camden Property Trust (CPT): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksNov 24th, 2021

Are You Looking for a Top Momentum Pick? Why Farmers National Banc (FMNB) is a Great Choice

Does Farmers National Banc (FMNB) have what it takes to be a top stock pick for momentum investors? Let's find out. Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.Below, we take a look at Farmers National Banc (FMNB), a company that currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B. We also talk about price change and earnings estimate revisions, two of the main aspects of the Momentum Style Score.It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Farmers National Banc currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here >>>Set to Beat the Market?Let's discuss some of the components of the Momentum Style Score for FMNB that show why this bank shows promise as a solid momentum pick.A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short-term price activity, as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand. It's also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.For FMNB, shares are up 1.27% over the past week while the Zacks Banks - Midwest industry is down 0.49% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 9.09% compares favorably with the industry's 3.32% performance as well.Considering longer term price metrics, like performance over the last three months or year, can be advantageous as well. Over the past quarter, shares of Farmers National Banc have risen 19.3%, and are up 37.95% in the last year. On the other hand, the S&P 500 has only moved 5.02% and 32.65%, respectively.Investors should also take note of FMNB's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. Right now, FMNB is averaging 164,501 shares for the last 20 days.Earnings OutlookThe Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with FMNB.Over the past two months, 2 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost FMNB's consensus estimate, increasing from $2.07 to $2.14 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 3 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.Bottom LineGiven these factors, it shouldn't be surprising that FMNB is a #2 (Buy) stock and boasts a Momentum Score of B. If you're looking for a fresh pick that's set to soar in the near-term, make sure to keep Farmers National Banc on your short list. Zacks’ Top Picks to Cash in on Artificial Intelligence This world-changing technology is projected to generate $100s of billions by 2025. From self-driving cars to consumer data analysis, people are relying on machines more than we ever have before. Now is the time to capitalize on the 4th Industrial Revolution. Zacks’ urgent special report reveals 6 AI picks investors need to know about today.See 6 Artificial Intelligence Stocks With Extreme Upside Potential>>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksNov 24th, 2021