Bitcoin Gives Up $27K in Sharp Tumble as Crypto Liquidations Top $100M

Futures Tumble Ahead Of $4 Trillion Quad Witch, 2nd Biggest Ever OpEx A miserable week for global stocks - which wrongfooted traders as risk first soared after a weaker than expected CPI only to tumble more than 7% just two days later - was set to end with even more selling on Friday after hawkish signals from the Fed and the ECB sparked worries about higher-for-longer interest rates leading to a possible recession: the latest economic data signaled a slowdown in US growth; data from France showed that it faces a greater recession risk, with its PMI falling to its lowest level in two years. Similarly UK companies are steeling themselves for an economic contraction, with both the manufacturing and service sectors experiencing a slump in the fourth quarter. Economists now see a 60% probability of recession in the US and an 80% chance in Europe. Equity analysts have cut 12-month earnings estimates for the regions to the lowest levels since March and July, respectively. Not helping matters is today's massive, $4 trillion quad-witching option expiration, which as we previewed yesterday threatens to become a liquidity-draining vortex just as CTAs are forced to dump stocks. potentially leading to outsized price moves. With the S&P 500 stuck for weeks within 100 points of peak gamma at the 4,000 strike, the sheer volume provides a positioning reset that could turbocharge market moves. Given the backdrop of hawkish central banks and slowing growth, worries are mounting the expiration will act as an air pocket. Finally, bitcoin plunged back under $17K following news that accounting firm Mazars has paused work for all crypto clients globally, according to Binance, which was a customer of the auditing firm. Between all that, it is perhaps surprising that S&P futures are down only 1% while contracts on the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.62% by 6:56 a.m. in New York. The overnight selloff accelerated when Europe opened as European peripheral bonds blew out amid fears that the ECB's aggressive tightening and QT will crash the European bond market. The dollar fluctuated and Treasuries dropped across the curve. Oil trimmed a weekly gain, sliding more than 2% amid renewed fears that the Fed is pushing the US into a crash-landing. The S&P 500 index, already on track for its biggest annual slump since 2008, erased another $1.1 trillion in market capitalization in the past two days after both the Fed and the ECB took a more hawkish tone than expected about how much further rates will need to rise to tame inflation. The MSCI ACWI Index, the global equities gauge, headed for a 1.4% retreat this week. “The worrying aspect for markets is the rate hike finishing lines are still unknown, and we have the two most dominant central banks in the world climbing the mountain into very restrictive territory,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a note. “Hiking interest rates into a dimming macro environment will undoubtedly trigger a recession. The question is just how profound.” Ann-Katrin Petersen, senior investment strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute, said on Bloomberg Television that central banks were starting to acknowledge they will have to crush growth and will likely engineer recessions to tame inflation. Among notable moves in US premarket trading, Adobe shares are up 3.7% in premarket trading, after the software company reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations. Analysts said the report speaks to positive demand for creative design software despite economic uncertainties. Guardant Health shares sank after following disappointing results from a study of its blood test for detecting colorectal cancer in average-risk adults. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Amazon (AMZN US) falls 1.3% in premarket trading as JPMorgan cut its price target on the stock to $130 from $145 primarily due to AWS revenue deceleration and margin compression amid challenging macro conditions. . Meta Platforms (META US) rises 1.7% in premarket trading as JPMorgan raised the recommendation on the stock to overweight from neutral, citing increased cost discipline and a more favorable revenue outlook. Lanvin (LANV US) shares surge 56% in US premarket trading, following a volatile New York trading debut for the luxury group that saw its stock bounce between a gain of as much as 130% and declines of more than 50%. Stocks exposed to cryptocurencies drop in US premarket trading, as the price of Bitcoin fell below the $17,000 level after the Binance exchange said French auditor Mazars Group had paused work for all crypto clients globally. Hut 8 Mining (HUT CN) -4.6%, Block (SQ US) -2.1%. "Recessionary fears raced back to the top of the agenda and any thoughts of a Santa rally have all but evaporated, with previous hopes of peak inflation and interest rates being soundly rejected,” said Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor. “Comments from the ECB in particular that ‘we are not slowing down, we are in for the long game’ were in direct contrast to what markets had been pricing in over recent weeks.” The slump this week also kept the S&P 500 from overcoming a technical downtrend in place since the start of the year, which has put an end to the past three bear-market rallies. The index didn’t convincingly break above its 200-day moving average, and is now close to testing its 50-day moving average, two other closely watched technical thresholds. Europe’s equity benchmark fell for a third day, to a five-week low. European real-estate stocks were the biggest declinerss in Friday trading, with the subindex for the rate-sensitive sector the biggest laggard on the Stoxx 600, after the ECB on Thursday hit a more hawkish tone than expected alongside its latest rate decision. Stoxx 600 Real Estate sector declines 2.2% with the wider Stoxx 600 -1%. Telecoms and retailers also underperformed as all sectors fell barring autos, which are supported by recent data that showed auto sales in Europe rose for a fourth straight month. Here are some of the biggest European movers: Games Workshop shares jump as much as 15%, the most since September 2020, after the maker of the Warhammer series of games said it has reached an agreement in principle for Amazon to develop the company’s intellectual property into film and television productions. TeamViewer shares jump as much as 11% to touch their highest level in six months, after the remote- software provider said that it would eventually end its sponsorship partnership with Manchester United Hollywood Bowl rises as much as 6.8% to its highest level since June 8 after the bowling chain reported a strong set of FY22 results Suedzucker rises as much as 5.9%, adding to yesterday’s 3.3% gains, as Warburg says the German sugar producer’s latest financial update is a “blow-out guidance” for the coming fiscal year. OVS shares rise as much as 5.3% in Milan after 9-month results, with Banca Akros upgrading to buy from neutral, noting that the 4Q sales performance is “much higher of our expectation.” Rank falls as much as 9.1%, most in two months, after a trading update from the gambling firm. Wood shares fall as much as 8% as Barclays cuts the energy services firm to equal-weight National Express falls as much as 6.5% after being cut to hold from buy at Liberum, with the broker highlighting that growing headwinds point to a “deleveraging challenge,” according to note. Aalberts shares drop as much as 5.1% after the Dutch piping firm announced Wim Pelsma has notified its supervisory board that he wishes to step down as chief executive officer in the second half of 2023 Tele2 shares drop as much as 4.7% after Redburn analyst Steve Malcolm cut the recommendation to sell from neutral, citing a potential 2023 guidance cut. Asian equities fell Friday, extending the week’s decline, as hawkish views from global central banks offset the boost from easing delisting risk for Chinese stocks in the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.9%, led by technology stocks. Shares in Japan and Taiwan were among the worst performers in the region; it posted the first weekly decline since October.  Chinese shares eked out small gains after US officials said they got sufficient access to audit documents on companies in China and Hong Kong, removing the acute threat of delisting faced by those firms. Still, caution remained as the US government added dozens of Chinese tech companies to its blacklist. A risk-off mood extended into Friday’s trading after the Fed’s hawkish tone from its latest rate decision was echoed by the European Central Bank, squashing hopes for a pivot in monetary policies next year. “As premature pivot bets collide with overly-exuberant China re-opening bets,” expectations will need to be “tempered for a bumpy path out of Zero-Covid amid winter/Lunar New Year travel and lingering confidence deficit,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics & strategy at Mizuho Bank. The Asian stock benchmark has fallen 1.8% this week, set to snap a six-week gaining streak as traders took profit following a recent rally, and as China’s surging Covid cases and the Fed’s tightening weighed on sentiment. Japanese stocks declined for a second day, leading losses in the region, as investors assess the possibility of further tightening by global central banks and weak US retail sales data.  The Topix Index fell 1.2% to close at 1,950.21, while the Nikkei declined 1.9% to 27,527.12. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.7%. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 1.9%. Out of 2,163 stocks in the index, 343 rose and 1,737 fell, while 83 were unchanged. “Both the U.S. and Europe were down significantly yesterday, and Japanese stocks are also dragged by this,” said Ryuta Otsuka, a strategist at Toyo Securities Co In FX, the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers; the yen was the best performer. The euro swung between modest gains and losses against the US dollar. The euro’s volatility skew steepened with the currency failing to tackle spot offers around $1.0750 after the hawkish ECB decision and as profit-taking took over. The pound climbed and UK bonds fell, in line with bunds. Australian dollar reversed an intraday gain after iron ore fell on news that China would be centralizing purchases of the commodity. Kiwi rose as data showed non-resident bond holdings hit a four-year high. In rates, Treasury yields added up to 4bps led by the long end. In rates, treasury futures drifted lower over Asia and early European session, following wider losses seen across core European rates after several ECB policy members reinforced the bank’s hawkish stance. US session light, with focus including manufacturing data and Fed’s Daly talking on inflation. US yields were cheaper by up to 5bp across long-end of the curve, with 2s10s and 5s30s spread steeper by 3bp and 1bp on the day; 10-year yields near cheapest levels of the session at around 3.49% with bunds, gilts lagging by additional 6bp and 7bp in the sector. The German curve added 10-12 bps while Italian yields rose by 15-23bps after money markets bet the ECB will lift the deposit rate as high as 3.36% after a barrage of hawkish comments from ECB policy makers. In commodities, crude benchmarks posted losses in excess of 2.0%; though, WTI still has around USD 4.0/bbl of downside required to bring it back to the WTD low of USD 70.25/bbl which printed on Monday. French President Macron said EU energy policy is likely to be finalized during the meeting on Monday, while it was separately reported that the Czech PM said EU leaders agreed the gas price cap deal must be done by Monday at the energy ministers' meeting, according to Reuters. Spot gold and silver are experiencing some marked divergence with the yellow metal essentially unchanged, while silver has slipped by around 2% to the mid-USD 22/oz region. Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the global flash PMIs for December. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Daly, and the ECB’s Rehn, Holzmann and Centeno. Finally, earnings releases include Accenture. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 1.1% to 3,854.25 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 426.66 MXAP down 0.7% to 156.22 MXAPJ down 0.6% to 508.56 Nikkei down 1.9% to 27,527.12 Topix down 1.2% to 1,950.21 Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 19,450.67 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,167.86 Sensex down 0.8% to 61,333.94 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 7,148.68 Kospi little changed at 2,360.02 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.20% Euro little changed at $1.0625 Brent Futures down 1.9% to $79.66/bbl Brent Futures down 1.8% to $79.72/bbl Gold spot down 0.0% to $1,776.18 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 104.59 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg An estimated $4 trillion of options is expected to expire Friday in a monthly event that tends to add turbulence to the trading day. This time, with the S&P 500 stuck for weeks within 100 points of 4,000, the sheer volume provides a positioning reset that could turbocharge market moves The Fed’s quarterly projections showed officials now expect so-called core inflation — which excludes food and energy — to end this year around 4.8%, up from the 4.5% figure they forecast in September. Yet that number looks much too high to Wall Street economists The ECB is likely to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its meetings in both February and March, Governing Council member Olli Rehn said The ECB will likely accelerate the pace at which it offloads government debt accumulated during past crises from July next year as part of its fight against soaring inflation, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said Markets have understood the hawkish message sent by ECB rate setters, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann tells reporters in Vienna ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said interest rates will likely rise above levels anticipated by markets as the economic slowdown isn’t enough to curb inflation as needed Euro-zone composite PMI rose to 48.8 in December, from 47.8 in the prior month and versus an estimate 47.9 Three senior Italian politicians criticized the ECB’s increase in borrowing costs, pointing to rising tensions between Giorgia Meloni’s government and Frankfurt officials UK Composite PMI was little changed at 49 in December, compared to last month’s reading of 48.2 and expectations for a drop to 48 Britain is enduring the highest number of strikes since Margaret Thatcher was prime minister, according to estimates by a group of economists UK retail sales unexpectedly fell in November. The volume of goods sold in shops and online fell 0.4%, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. Sales excluding auto fuel fell 0.3%. Economists expected a 0.3% gain on both measures China’s abrupt ending of its Covid Zero restrictions have forced economists to make sharp revisions to their growth projections for this year and next. UBS Group AG and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. were the latest to adjust forecasts on Friday, cutting estimates for this year to 2.7% as Covid infections spread rapidly. Predictions for next year were raised sharply to close to 5% or higher, on the expectation that consumer and business activity will recover as Covid infections subside A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were pressured on spillover selling from global counterparts following the slew of central bank rate hikes and with markets also unnerved by a flurry of dismal US data releases. ASX 200 was lower with sentiment not helped by a deterioration in the latest Australian flash PMI data releases. Nikkei 225 underperformed after the ruling LDP tax panel agreed and provided details on the tax hike plan to boost the defence budget and with index-heavyweight Fast Retailing hit by the announcement of a 3-for-1 stock split. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lacked firm direction amid mixed headlines with some encouragement from reports related to US audits in which Chinese companies averted a delisting after the US was given full inspection access, while there was also a constructive tone in discussions between US Treasury Secretary Yellen and China's Ambassador to the US in which they agreed to step up coordination on trade and policies. Top Asian News China National Health Commission issued a plan to step up COVID control and prevention in rural areas where it will strengthen reserves of essential drugs and COVID home test kits. China will also accelerate COVID vaccination of the rural population, especially among the elderly and said that people returning to their hometowns in rural areas should monitor their health and reduce contact with the elderly at home, according to Reuters. China's NDRC said the economy is facing more complex and grim external environments but added that the long-term positive trend hasn't changed and it approved CNY 1.5tln of major projects as of end-November. NDRC said China's economic growth is expected to continue picking up following the implementation of new COVID rules and that they will focus on stabilising growth, employment and prices, as well as speed up infrastructure project construction and expand effective investment, according to Reuters. China's securities regulator said it welcomes the US PCAOB decision on auditing and will continue supervision work on auditing in the future, while it will create a more stable regulatory environment with the US, according to Reuters. China's ambassador to the US met with US Treasury Secretary Yellen to discuss their views on global macroeconomic and financial developments, while it was reported that they agreed to step up coordination on trade and policies. Japan's government is to implement defence tax hikes in stages over multiple years to secure more than JPY 1tln by fiscal 2027, while it is to adopt a new corporate surtax of 4.0%-4.5% and will introduce a surtax of 1% on incomes for the time being. Furthermore, it is to raise the tobacco tax in stages by JPY 3 a piece and said it will implement defence taxation at an appropriate time from 2024 onwards, according to a draft by the ruling LDP cited by Reuters. European bourses remains on a downward trajectory as the post-ECB slump continues, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.0%. Sectors were initially mixed but are now all underwater with Real Estate lagging giving the detrimental rate environment. Stateside, US futures are pressured in-line with the above price action and ahead of a handful of Fed speakers, ES -1.1%. Top European News UK Companies Brace for Recession as Manufacturing Slumps UK Dec. Flash Services PMI 50; Est 48.5 Most Banks See More ECB Rate Hikes With Potentially Higher Peak Russian Missile Barrage Knocks Out Power to Ukrainian Cities UK Civil Aviation Regulator Raises Concerns With Wizz Air Bunzl Sinks as Barclays Cuts to Underweight, RS Group Upgraded FX USD has whipsawed within a 104.20-73 range, well within yesterday's bands, though an overall underlying bid has emerged, with the DXY climbing to incremental new peaks on multiple occasions. Though, this action is capped by marked JPY upside given its traditional haven allure and post-data; USD/JPY down to 136.83 at worst. GBP impaired further post-BoE dissent on the USD's move and as the EUR proves comparably more resilient given the hawkish ECB; Cable to 1.2120 and EUR/USD holding above 1.06. Elsewhere, G10 peers are generally downbeat given the above narrative, though CAD has proven relatively resilient to the crude action. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9791 vs exp. 6.9844 (prev. 6.9343) Fixed Income EGBs continue to slide. With Bunds lower by over 150 ticks and the associated 10yr yield above 2.2% post-ECB. Gilts are pressured in-turn, though to a slightly lesser extent given the BoE's dovish dissenters. USTs are in the red, but with magnitudes much more contained and the curve steepening ahead of Fed speak and the region's PMIs. Commodities Currently, the crude benchmarks are posting losses in excess of 2.0%; though, WTI still has around USD 4.0/bbl of downside required to bring it back to the WTD low of USD 70.25/bbl which printed on Monday. Qatar Energy sells February Al-Shaheen crude at USD 1.30-1.50/bbl above Dubai quotes, according to sources. French President Macron said EU energy policy is likely to be finalised during the meeting on Monday, while it was separately reported that the Czech PM said EU leaders agreed the gas price cap deal must be done by Monday at the energy ministers' meeting, according to Reuters. ICE warned it may pull the gas market from the EU over the Brussels price cap, according to FT. Currently, Dutch TTF Jan’23 is lower by around 8% on the session, though seemingly found a floor around EUR 120/MWh. Panama's government ordered the suspension of operations at First Quantum Minerals' copper project. Spot gold and silver are experiencing some marked divergence with the yellow metal essentially unchanged, while silver has slipped by around 2% to the mid-USD 22/oz region Central Banks ECB's Villeroy says must not speculate on the number of interest rate rises, too early to talk about the terminal rate. ECB's Muller says rates are likely to increase by more than the market expects. Cannot rely on an economic slowdown to tame inflation. ECB's Rehn says rates need to rise significantly. Interest rates will still have to rise significantly to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target. ECB's Holzmann says inflation still poses a challenge, does not want to say where the terminal rate is, the hawkish statement is equivalent to a 75bp hike. Bundesbank: German recession now expected in 2023, downturn not seen severe. Click here for more detail. Geopolitics North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un guided a successful test of a 'high-thrust solid-fuel motor' at the satellite launching ground and the test was said to have provided a guarantee for the development of another new strategic weapon system, while Kim hopes the new-type strategic weapon would be made in the shortest span of time, according to KCNA. HKEX (388 HK) welcomed Asia's first crypto assets ETFs after the listing of CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF & CSOP Ether Futures ETF, according to Reuters. FTX is reportedly seeking permission to sell off LedgerX, Ember and its branches in Japan and Europe before they lose value and have their licences revoked, according to Cointelegraph. Kraken says "We are investigating reports from clients having difficulty connecting to the site and API as well as via mobile apps.". Binance reports that Mazars is to pause work for crypto clients, via Bloomberg. US Event Calendar 09:45: Dec. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 46.9, prior 46.4 09:45: Dec. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 46.5, prior 46.2 09:45: Dec. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 47.8, prior 47.7 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap At this age in life I generally have an idea of what I like and new experiences are rarer, for mostly good reasons. However, tomorrow I’ll attend my first ever artistic swimming (synchronised swimming in old parlance) Christmas performance. Maisie is the youngest in it but has taken to the sport very well in spite of her hip issues. I never thought in a million years I'd go to such an event but here goes. Talking of year end performances, it would have been completely out of character for 2022 to go out with a whimper and with the last major act of the year, the ECB ensured that we didn’t. Following the hawkish message from the Fed, yesterday saw the ECB join in with a clear signal for markets to price in more aggressive rate hikes. Indeed, there could be no doubt about their message as they 1) pointed to further rate hikes ahead, 2) outlined their plans for quantitative tightening, and 3) upgraded their inflation forecasts significantly. Meanwhile, Bloomberg even reported afterwards that over a third of the Governing Council wanted a larger 75bps hike. That led to some massive market moves coming on the heels of the Fed, with yields on 2yr German debt (+22.1bps) seeing their largest daily increase since September 2008 if you use the generic 2yr series on Bloomberg and to the highest since that point too. And with the Fed and the ECB now pledging to take rates further into restrictive territory in 2023, risk assets took another major hit, with the S&P 500 (-2.49%) and the STOXX 600 (-2.85%) both seeing sizeable losses. The first punch from the Fed didn’t really land on markets but the second punch from the ECB did. In terms of the details, the main headline was much as expected as they unveiled a 50bps rate hike, thus taking the deposit rate up to a post-GFC high of 2%. However, just about every other detail leant in a hawkish direction. First, there was the comment at the top of the ECB’s statement that rates would “still have to rise significantly”, even after the 250bps worth of hikes we’ve already had. Second, President Lagarde then followed that up in her press conference, saying that “we should expect to raise interest rates at a 50 basis-point pace for a period of time”, which dampened investor hopes that the ECB might downshift again to 25bps at the next meeting. And third, the staff inflation forecasts were much more hawkish than in September, with the 2023 projection upgraded to +6.3% (vs. +5.5% in September), 2024 at +3.4% (vs. +2.3% in September), and 2025 still above target as well at +2.3%. Alongside those hawkish details, the ECB also outlined plans to begin quantitative tightening from March. They said that their Asset Purchase Programme portfolio would start declining by €15bn per month from March until the end of Q2 2023, and that afterwards the pace “will be determined over time.” The statement said we should get “the detailed parameters” for QT at the next meeting in February, and that by the end of 2023, they’d also review the “operational framework for steering short-term interest rates, which will provide information regarding the endpoint of the balance sheet normalisation process.” Given the comments from Lagarde about further 50bp hikes ahead, investors moved to price in a more aggressive path of ECB rate hikes over the months ahead. For instance, if you look at overnight index swaps, the rate hike priced in for the next meeting in February moved up from +40.1bps the previous day to +58.1bps now, so fully pricing in another 50bp move. Our own European economists now think the terminal rate will be 3.25% rather than the 3% expected before the meeting. This was always the direction they saw the risks moving with Mark Wall now expecting hikes of 50bps in February, 50bps in March and 25bps in May. There is risk of another 50bps in May but Mark thinks the ECB growth forecast is too strong for H2 2023 and into 2024, and that an earlier start to QT and a rapid rate means he thinks they’ll step down at that point. See Mark’s team’s excellent review of a very important ECB meeting here. Against the backdrop of mounting expectations of further ECB hikes, sovereign bonds saw a massive selloff across the Eurozone yesterday. For instance, yields on 10yr bunds (+14.0bps), OATs (+15.9bps) and BTPs (+28.9bps) all rose significantly after the policy decision was announced. Furthermore, there was a significant widening in peripheral spreads, with the gap between Italian and German 10yr yields moving back above 200bps for the first time in a month. In the meantime, the moves at the front-end of the curve were even more pronounced, with yields on 2yr German debt hitting 2.44% intraday, before closing at 2.39%, a post-2008 high. With the two major DM central banks having taken a very hawkish stance over the last 48 hours, risk assets struggled yesterday as investors grappled with the prospect of further rate hikes into 2023. The S&P 500 (-2.49%) had its worst day in over a month, and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-2.85%) put in its worst day since May. Those losses were seen across the board, with just 32 companies in the S&P 500 moving higher on the day. We will see if now the big event risk days are out the way, whether the market just calms down massively into Xmas and we pick up the battle again next year. Whilst the focus was understandably on the ECB yesterday, the Bank of England also announced their latest policy decision, where they confirmed that the Bank Rate would rise 50bps as expected, taking it up to a post-2008 high of 3.5%. Six of the nine members on the committee were in favour of the hike, but one preferred a larger 75bps move, and two others wanted no change at all. Looking forward, they echoed the other central banks in pointing to further hikes ahead, with a majority saying that if the economy evolved in line with their November projections, then “further increases in the Bank Rate might be required for a sustainable return of inflation to target.” Market pricing for the upcoming meetings saw little change following the decision, but gilts outperformed significantly, with 10yr yields down -6.9bps on the day. Elsewhere in markets, yesterday brought a mixed bag of US data releases for investors to react to. On the plus side, the weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 211k (vs. 232k expected) over the week ending December 10, and that’s one of the most timely indicators we get. However, the decline in November retail sales of -0.6% (vs. -0.2% expected) was faster than anticipated, whilst industrial production also contracted by -0.2% (vs. unch expected). Some of the surveys for December didn’t look too good either, with the Empire State manufacturing survey down to -11.2 (vs. -1.0 expected), and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook came in at -13.8 (vs. -10.0 expected). One asset that didn’t follow the pattern elsewhere yesterday was Treasuries. In spite of the hawkish tone from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday, they strongly outperformed their counterparts in Europe, with the 10yr yield down -3.1bps to 3.45%. So this was a strong day for the DB house view of bunds underperforming Treasuries. The 10yr UST move was driven by a -2.6bps decline in the 10yr inflation breakeven to 2.17%, which is just above its recent closing low in late-September of 2.1545%. If it breaches that point, then it would be at its lowest since February 2021, and demonstrates that for the time being, investors still have confidence that central bankers aren’t going to let longer-term inflation get out of control. Nevertheless, there’s still something of a divergence between the Fed’s dots from Wednesday and market pricing, with the Fed pointing to end-2023 rates at 5.1%, whereas futures are still only at 4.40%. Something will eventually have to give. Meanwhile, in Asia this morning, yields on 10yr USTs (+3.64 bps) slightly pulled back, trading at 3.48% as we go to print. Asian stock markets are trading in negative territory for a second consecutive day on concerns that the hawkish stance of global central banks will push the economy into a recession. Across the region, the Nikkei (-1.74%) is leading losses with the Shanghai Composite (-0.25%), the CSI (-0.33%) and the KOSPI (-0.26%) all moving lower. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.09%) is fractionally higher in early trading. Outside of Asia, stock futures tied to the S&P 500 (-0.06%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.03%) are trading just below flat. We had mixed data from Japan as manufacturing activity contracted at the fastest pace in more than two years in December with the au Jibun Bank flash manufacturing PMI falling further to 48.8 from a level of 49.0 in the previous month amid soft demand. At the same time, the au Jibun Bank flash services PMI rose to a seasonally adjusted 51.7 in December, from November’s final reading of 50.3 as the sector activity expanded on tourism reopening. To the day ahead now, and data releases include the global flash PMIs for December. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Daly, and the ECB’s Rehn, Holzmann and Centeno. Finally, earnings releases include Accenture. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/16/2022 - 08:06.....»»

Concerns of another blowup in the crypto space was weighing on the sector Tuesday, as bitcoin fell below $20,000 for the first time since October......»»

The bitcoin price and the prices of many other popular cryptocurrencies suddenly plummeted, sending bitcoin back below $22,000 in the early-morning hours on Friday. The plunge sent the cryptocurrency to its lowest level in more than three weeks. The prices of ether, Binance Coin, Solana and Cardano also dropped suddenly at the same time. Q2 […] The bitcoin price and the prices of many other popular cryptocurrencies suddenly plummeted, sending bitcoin back below $22,000 in the early-morning hours on Friday. The plunge sent the cryptocurrency to its lowest level in more than three weeks. The prices of ether, Binance Coin, Solana and Cardano also dropped suddenly at the same time. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   The Crypto Market Sells Off… Suddenly The reason for the sudden, sharp drop is unclear as of the time of this writing, although it came during a sudden selloff in early European crypto trading. According to data from CoinDesk, the bitcoin price briefly tumbled from $22,738 to below $21,500 at 2:30 a.m. Eastern. However, in a matter of 10 minutes, it recovered slightly to just under $22,000. Hours later, bitcoin was trading at around $21,392. The sudden selloff in the crypto market came not long after the largest cryptocurrency by market cap climbed above $25,000 for the first time since June, climbing alongside U.S. stocks. The ether price plummeted from $1,808 to $1,728 at the same time bitcoin slipped before rebounding slightly. By 3:05 a.m. Eastern, ether was trading at $1,733, a price it hasn't seen since Aug. 10. A few hours later, the cryptocurrency had fallen even further to $1,691. The Crypto Winter Continues? In an early-morning email, Craig Erlam of OANDA warned that the crypto winter might not be over yet. "Bitcoin has been sent into a tailspin at the end of the week, dropping very sharply and suddenly early in European trade," he wrote. "It fell more than 5% in a very short period of time, and while the trigger isn't clear, the fact that it has barely recovered any of those losses suggests there is substance to the move." He added that the plunge below the technical support at $22,500 could be significant if it holds, setting the stage for the next test of support at $20,000. Since Erlam's email, the bitcoin price has held its low level, paving the way for a test of that next support level. Why The Sudden Selloff? Simon Peters, a crypto market analyst at eToro, told CNBC that the sudden crypto market selloff may have come since the U.S. equity markets have tumbled since the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting. The primary takeaway from those minutes was that the Fed will probably keep hiking interest rates until inflation is steadied across the board. Peters believes the Fed news has finally filtered through to the crypto markets, triggering the selloff. He also called attention to a large liquidation of long positions on the bitcoin perpetual futures markets. Citing data from Coinglass, Peters said today has seen the largest liquidation of long positions on futures since June 18. That was the date when bitcoin hit its lowest year-to-date price at around $17,500. That data shows that 156,155 traders have liquidated more than $537 million from the crypto market over the last 24 hours, with bitcoin leading the liquidations at over $200 million, followed by ether at over $130 million. Decrypt pointed out that most of those liquidations came from "blown-out long positions." Updated on Aug 19, 2022, 9:32 am.....»»

Futures, Global Markets Rally, Bonds Slide As Traders Turn More Bullish Following the best week for stocks in one month, global stocks extended gains on Monday on continued easing of fears for a hawkish Fed; US futures rose, with the Nasdaq 100 advancing 0.5% as by tech giants Amazon, Apple and Microsoft all rose in premarket trading. Tech shares also boosted indexes in Europe and Asia. Treasuries slipped, pushing the rate on the US 10-year note to 3.17%. Yields have retreated from June highs on growth worries, but whether that marks the end of the Treasury bear market is a live debate. The dollar fluctuated while oil and bitcoin rose. In the US premarket, major US technology and internet stocks were higher, poised to extend gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 closed up 7.5% last week, its best week since March. Among notable movers: Apple +0.6%, Microsoft +0.6%, Amazon.com +1%, Meta +0.8%, Nvidia +1.6% in premarket trading. Other notable premarket movers include: JD.com (JD US) is among the top performers in US-listed Chinese stocks, rising 5% in premarket trading, after tech investor Prosus disposed of its stake in JD.com for about $3.67 billion. Coinbase (COIN US) shares fall 4% in premarket trading as the stock was downgraded to sell from neutral, with a joint Street-low price target of $45 at Goldman Sachs, which cited the “continued downdraft” in crypto prices and drop in industry activity levels. Robinhood (HOOD US) shares rise 3.9% in premarket trading as Goldman Sachs analyst William Nance raised the recommendation on the stock to neutral from sell Epizyme (EPZM US) jumps 64% to $1.56 in US premarket trading after Ipsen announced the acquisition of the US biotech firm for $1.45/share in cash plus a contingent value right of $1/share. Selective Insurance Group (SIGI US) shares may be in focus after Morgan Stanley initiated an overweight rating on the stock, citing a favorable business model that will help the company’s margin to outperform peers. Keep an eye on WEC Energy Group (WEC US) as KeyBanc Capital Markets raised the recommendation on the stock to overweight from sector weight, citing “valuation dislocations” triggered by the recent industry volatility. As Goldman traders speculated over the weekend, Friday's massive Russell rebalance may have helped flush out any leftover liquidation trades, while the upcoming month- and quarter-end portfolio rebalancing by pensions could boost stocks by as much as 7% this week according to JPM's Marko Kolanovic. Further boosting bullish sentiment - if only temporarily - one of Wall Street’s biggest bears sees the rally in US stocks extending, prior to the selloff recommencing. Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson say the S&P 500 Index may climb another 5% to 7%, before resuming losses. Meanwhile, investors are also parsing incoming data to work out if the highest inflation in a generation is close to topping out as that will give the Fed latitude to ease up on sharp interest-rate hikes, something the market last week aggressively repriced. A more troubling scenario is of lasting price pressures and tighter policy even as the global economy falters. “There’s a feeling that things aren’t as bad as we thought they were going to be,” Carol Pepper, founder of Pepper International, said on Bloomberg Radio. She added “there’s a hope that perhaps we’ve oversold, perhaps there’s not going to be a recession.” Traders are also monitoring a summit of the Group of Seven leaders, who plan to commit to indefinite support for Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion. The G-7 in addition is weighing a price cap on Russian oil. As reported yesterday, the US, UK, Japan and Canada also plan to announce a ban on new gold imports from Russia during the G-7 summit. Prices for the precious metal naturally rose. European equities trade off session highs as an earlier rally in Asian tech stocks buoys sentiment. Miners, tech and autos are the strongest performing sectors in Europe. Euro Stoxx 50 rallies 1%. DAX outperforms peers, adding 1.2%, FTSE MIB lags, dropping 0.2%.  Among notable European stock moves, Prosus NV soared on plans to sell more of its $134 billion stake in Chinese internet giant Tencent Holdings Ltd. to finance a buyback program. Mediobanca SpA fell after the death of Italian entrepreneur Leonardo Del Vecchio, the single largest investor in the bank.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Prosus shares surge as much as 17% in Amsterdam after the tech investor said it will sell down its holding in Tencent to finance an open-ended share buyback program, which could help close the gap between the firm’s market value and the value of the Tencent stake, according to analysts. Mining stocks lead gains in the Stoxx 600 Index on Monday as iron ore and base metals recover ground amid signs of improvement in China’s economy. Rio Tinto shares rise as much as 4.4%, Anglo American +4.6%, Glencore +4.2% Nordex shares jump as much as 12% after the firm announced a EU139.2m cash injection from Acciona in a bid to increase liquidity and strengthen its balance sheet to shield itself against the risks of short term headwinds in the industry. Kion shares rise as much as 7.7% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from underweight, saying that the structural case for warehouse and forklift companies remains intact even amid a de-rating for the stocks. Lundbeck soars as much as 15% after the Danish pharmaceutical company reported positive data in a clinical study of agitation in patients with Alzheimer’s dementia. Ocado shares fall as much as 3.1% after the stock was cut to neutral from outperform and PT slashed to 960p from 1,600p at Credit Suisse, with the broker saying new disclosures from the online grocer indicate that its prior assumptions were “too optimistic.” Ipsen shares drop as much as 5.1% after the pharmaceutical company announced the acquisition of US biotech Epizyme for $1.45/share in cash plus a contingent value right of $1/share. Analyst had mixed reactions to the deal. Mediobanca shares fall as much as 4.4% in Milan after news that Italian entrepreneur Leonardo Del Vecchio, the single largest investor in the bank with a stake of about 19.4%, has died. Wise shares drop as much as 5.3% after the money transfer firm said its CEO is facing a probe by UK regulators. Tecnicas Reunidas shares tumble as much as 17% after the company said it began arbitrage to recover excess costs in a dispute with the Sonatrach-Neptune Energy consortium over a contract for the Touat Gaz Plant in Algeria. Elsewhere, Russia defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced after battered technology shares rebounded as easing recession fears underpinned investor sentiment.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 2.1%, its biggest intraday gain this month, as chip and internet companies including TSMC and Alibaba climbed. Tech-heavy markets such as Taiwan and South Korea extended gains made Friday, while an index of Asian tech stocks rallied for a second straight session after dropping to the lowest since September 2020.  Asian equities are bouncing back from a two-year low, as US Treasury yields retreat. Almost all markets in the region rose, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index leading gains and China’s benchmark coming closer to a bull market as Shanghai’s leader declared victory in defending the financial hub against Covid. A Chinese tech index in Hong Kong advanced 4.7%. Still, the rally in technology shares may be short-lived, as global demand for consumer electronics remains fragile.  “Korea and Taiwan have high leverage to tech products, and we’ve seen a lot of that come under pressure so the end demand has slowed down,” Ray Sharma-Ong, investment director at Abrdn Asia, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “We expect continued outflows post this relief rally.” Japanese equities climbed as the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials buoyed sentiment on the economy and a reading on US inflation expectations eased.  The Topix Index rose 1.1% to 1,887.42 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 1.4% to 26,871.27. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.3%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,490 rose and 568 fell, while 112 were unchanged. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.9% to close at 6,706, the benchmark’s biggest daily gain since Jan. 28, as investors in Asia assessed whether inflation is bottoming and recession can be averted. The index’s biggest gains were seen in the financial, energy and tech sectors. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index closed 1.7% higher at 10,997.92, the benchmark’s best day since March 1 Emerging-market stocks climbed to the highest in more than a week as China’s recovery from its virus-induced slump propels the Asian nation’s equities toward a bull market. Technology stocks led emerging-market equity gains, with China’s economy showing some improvement in June amid a further easing of pandemic curbs in Shanghai. Chinese shares look to be the best home for fresh money in Asia amid a tough investment environment, according to abrdn plc’s regional chairman Hugh Young. China plans to extend the yuan’s trading hours as it seeks to increase global investor participation in onshore currency trading as part of its internationalization push. In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index fell 0.2% as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Australian dollar.  AUD and CHF are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, SEK and GBP outperform. The volatility term structures for the Group-of-4 currencies focus on the upcoming central bank meetings as there is little demand for long gamma in the front-end. The euro advanced, nearing $1.06 and European bonds fell broadly, with the exeption of Greece and Sweden, as focus turns to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech. Sterling rose for a second day, supported by a rally in global stocks that is limiting demand for the dollar. Gilts extended their slide across the curve, while money markets raised BOE tightening bets as haven- buying was unwound amid equity advances. In rates, Treasuries are weaker amid a selloff in core European rates, which extended losses after EU’s sale of EU2.5b four-year bonds. US yields are cheaper by nearly 4bp at long end, steepening 2s10s by ~2.4bp, 5s30s by ~1bp on the day; 10-year is up 3.6bp at ~3.17% with bunds and gilts lagging by additional 8bp and 5bp in the sector.  As Bloomberg notes, the broad risk-asset rally puts added cheapening pressure on Treasury yields with S&P 500 futures and Estoxx50 rising led by big gains for Asia stocks. Two coupon auctions slated for Monday may also weigh: Monday’s auctions include $46b 2- year at 11:30am ET and $47b 5-year notes at 1pm. The WI 2-year yield near 3.07% (vs 2.519% last month) is above auction stops since 2007; WI 5Y near 3.22% (vs 2.736% in May) exceeds results since 2008. IG dollar issuance expectations for the week are around $15b, although remain highly dependent on market conditions. The long- end of the curve may benefit this week from anticipated month- end demand; Bloomberg Indices estimated a 0.07yr Treasury index duration extension for July 1, slightly below 12-month average. In Europe, Gilts underperform Treasuries and bunds, cheaper by about 5-6bps at the long end. In commodities, industrial metals rebounded, while oil rose. Copper steadied and most other base metals rebounded after their worst week in a year as China’s economy showed signs of recovering and Goldman Sachs said global supplies were still constrained. Oil fluctuated near $107 a barrel in New York as investors monitored developments from the gathering of Group of Seven leaders; G7 leaders met to decide on a Russian oil price cap ahead of Iranian nuclear talks and on the week of the OPEC+ meeting. French CGT unions will participate in strikes at LNG terminals and gas storage facilities this week; strike in the energy sector on June 28th. Most base metals trade in the green; LME tin rises 6.8%, outperforming peers. LME zinc lags, dropping 0.9%. Spot gold maintains gains, adding ~$13 to trade near $1,840/oz. as some G-7 nations plan to announce ban on new gold imports from Russia Looking at today's US calendar, we get the May durable goods orders, capital goods orders, pending home sales, and June Dallas Fed manufacturing index. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 3,944.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 417.68 MXAP up 1.6% to 161.83 MXAPJ up 1.8% to 538.51 Nikkei up 1.4% to 26,871.27 Topix up 1.1% to 1,887.42 Hang Seng Index up 2.4% to 22,229.52 Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,379.19 Sensex up 1.2% to 53,368.36 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.9% to 6,705.95 Kospi up 1.5% to 2,401.92 Brent Futures up 0.2% to $113.31/bbl Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,840.40 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.29% to 103.88 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.49% Euro up 0.3% to $1.0580 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg ECB policy makers gather on a Portuguese hillside on Monday with the sinking feeling that their rush to tackle the inflation shock they failed to forecast risks both a recession and echoes of the euro area’s sovereign debt crisis It was while sitting apparently alone in a London hotel basement that Christine Lagarde engineered a fix to the euro zone’s most alarming debt turmoil since the pandemic struck The ECB is pushing back its policy decisions and the timing of the subsequent press conferences by 30 minutes as of July The US, UK, Japan and Canada plan to announce a ban on new gold imports from Russia during a summit of Group of Seven leaders that’s getting underway Sunday. Prices of the precious metal climbed Monday President Joe Biden rebooted his effort to counter China’s flagship trade-and- infrastructure initiative after an earlier campaign faltered, enlisting the support of Group of Seven leaders at their summit in Germany China’s economy showed some improvement in June as Covid restrictions were gradually eased, although the recovery remains muted China plans to extend the yuan’s trading hours as it seeks to increase global investor participation in onshore currency trading as part of its internationalization push Russia defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors The world economy risks entering a new era of high inflation which central banks need to keep in check, the Bank for International Settlements said Signs of distress flashing in bond markets suggest the world’s poorest nations are set to see a wave of debt restructurings. But a growing cohort of investors say that’s a buying opportunity A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were higher across the board as the region took impetus from last Friday's firm gains on Wall St heading closer into month-end. ASX 200 enjoyed broad gains across its sectors although gold miners lagged as Evolution Mining shares dropped by more than 20% due to a cut in its FY output guidance. Nikkei 225 was lifted after the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions reiterated that they must maintain easy policy and with Tepco among the biggest gainers on tight electricity supply amid the hot weather. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the upbeat mood as Hong Kong benefitted from a rampant tech sector and with the mainland encouraged by further easing of restrictions in Shanghai and Beijing, while the PBoC also upped its liquidity efforts with a CNY 100bln injection. Top Asian News Beijing will permit schools to resume in-class teaching as soon as Monday, ending one of the last major curbs in the capital, according to Bloomberg. Shanghai is to gradually resume dining-in at restaurants from June 29th, according to an official cited by Reuters. PBoC injected CNY 100bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 90bln net injection, according to Reuters. China requested that banks make preparations for longer trading hours for the CNY, with trading in the onshore CNY potentially to extend until 03:00 local time the following day (20:00BST/15:00CDT), according to Bloomberg. BoJ Summary of Opinions from the June meeting stated the BoJ must maintain easy policy and keep a close eye out on the market and FX impact on the economy and prices. It also noted the number of goods seeing prices rise is increasing due to higher raw material costs and a weak yen but it is appropriate to keep easy policy as inflation is not driven by a positive economic cycle. Furthermore, it said maintaining ultra-easy policy is effective in sustaining a rise in wages and that a sharp fall in Yen would hurt the economy and heighten uncertainty. Japanese government issued power shortage warnings for Tuesday, for a second straight day, according to Reuters. Japan has proposed removing reference to the goal of 50% zero-emission vehicles by 2030; wants less concrete target, according to a draft cited by Reuters. BoJ's holding of JGBs has reportedly topped 50% of its total, according to Nikkei. European bourses are kicking off the week on the front-foot as global equities see tailwinds from Wall Street’s bounce on Friday. Sectors in Europe are mostly positive – but Utilities and Insurance are subdued, with the overall picture being a cyclical one. Stateside, US equity futures track sentiment higher – with the NQ the current outperformer vs the ES, YM, and RTY. Top European News ECB says as of the July meeting, the policy decisions will be released at 14:15CET and presser at 14:45CET, according to Reuters. ECB’s Pivot Toward Rate Hikes Feeds Fears of New Bond Crisis; ECB to Announce Rate Decisions 30 Minutes Later From July EU Confronts Low Gas Storage Risk in Test of Unity on Russia Gas Jumps as Europe Struggles to Fill Russian Gap UK’s Battered Economy Is Sliding Toward a Breaking Point FX Greenback continues to gravitate as risk sentiment improves, but could get a month end boost given models indicating broad rebalancing requirement - DXY pivots 104.000 within 104.120-103.790 range just shy of last week's low. Yen benefits from all round fix buying ahead of final trading day of June and Q2 on Thursday - Usd/Jpy not far from 134.50 at one stage overnight alongside declined in Yen crosses. Pound perks up as IMM spec accounts trim short positions again and Euro tests technical resistance ahead of 1.0600 vs Buck amidst firmer rebound in EGB yields - Cable probes 1.2300 at best, Eur/Usd touches 21 DMA at 1.0591. Aussie lags on Aud/Nzd headwinds, but Loonie pares losses in tandem with oil - Aud/Usd sub-0.6950, cross under 1.1000, Nzd/Usd hovering over 0.6300 and Usd/Cad back below 1.2900. Yuan underpinned by net PBoC liquidity injection and easing of Covid restrictions in China - Usd/Cnh and Usd/Cny both beneath 6.6900. Lira knee jerks higher after Turkey cuts credit to firms with more than Try 15 mn FX cash assets - Usd/Try down to 16.1040 or so before rebound towards 16.8900. Fixed Income Debt futures unwind more recovery gains with EGBs leading the way. Bunds retreat towards 146.50 vs 149.00 at one stage last Friday. Gilts closer to 113.00 than 114.00 and 10 year T-note near the base of 116-31/117-13 overnight range. US durable goods data ahead and a double dose of issuance comprising Usd 46 bn 2 year and Usd 47 bn 5 year auctions. Commodities WTI and Brent futures consolidate with modest intraday losses as G7 leaders meet to decide on a Russian oil price cap ahead of Iranian nuclear talks and on the week of the OPEC+ meeting. French CGT unions will participate in strikes at LNG terminals and gas storage facilities this week; strike in the energy sector on June 28th. Spot gold piggy-backs off the softer Dollar – with the yellow metal currently eyeing its 21 DMA (1,841.60/oz) and 200 DMA (1,845.20/oz) to the upside Base metals are largely rebounding following the recent rout – also aided by the Buck. US Event Calendar 08:30: May Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%; -Less Transportation, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4% 08:30: May Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4% 08:30: May Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8% 10:00: May Pending Home Sales YoY, prior -11.5% 10:00: May Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. -3.9%, prior -3.9% 10:30: June Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -6.5, prior -7.3 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap This morning we are launching our monthly survey which hopefully comes at an opportune time to assess what you all think about recession risk, whether the next big move in markets will be up or down, whether the BoJ will be able to hold the line on YCC, whether your market view includes the risk of Russian gas being cut off from Europe, and whether you think negative rates will be seen again in the next decade after the ECB likely moves away from it by September. There are a couple of other repeat questions to answer. It should take 2-3 minutes, is all anonymous, with answers likely Thursday morning. The link is here and all help gratefully received. A reminder that my chart book was out last week with lots of charts on one of the worst H1s in history, recession risks and lots more. See here for more. Without having a blockbuster event to look forward to this week there are plenty of things to keep us occupied in what are highly uncertain times. Perhaps the ECB's Forum on Central Banking in Sintra will be the key event to watch, with a policy panel on Wednesday which will bring together Chair Powell, President Lagarde and Governor Bailey together the likely highlight. Staying in Europe, all eyes will be on the June CPI numbers released for Germany (Wednesday), France (Thursday) and Italy and the Eurozone on Friday. Consensus expectations don’t suggest we’re yet at peak headline inflation with CPI expected to pick up a few tenths YoY this week. With commodity prices fading sharply in June the hope is that we will be near the top soon. In fact, our US economists put out an inflationary chart book last week that suggested that the peak will be in September (9.1% headline and 6.3% core). The problem is that even if headline dips because of energy, core won’t necessarily fall as quickly with wages and second round effects in full force. We had a small indicator of that last week as our economists also pointed out that the recent acceleration in US hospital workers’ wage growth from around 2.5% to almost 5% should serve to add an additional 50bps to core PCE inflation next year (link here). On Thursday, we’ll get the latest reading of the US core PCE deflator within the personal income and spending data. Core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure so this and the healthcare news is important. Staying with US data, we have a fair amount to look forward to with the all important ISM on Friday (53.2 expected vs 56.1 last month). We'll also see the Chicago PMI on Thursday and regional Fed's manufacturing indices throughout the week. Durable goods orders (today) and wholesale and retail inventories (tomorrow) will be key to assessing inventory pressures flagged by several firms in recent weeks as well as corporate behaviour amid some easing in supply-chain backlogs. How the consumer is faring under rising rates and stubborn inflation will be another key theme, with the Conference Board’s June consumer confidence index out tomorrow (99.9 expected vs 106.4 last month). Elsewhere, China's industrial data and PMIs (Thursday), as well as key economic indicators from Japan, will be in focus. Even though we at the very back end of Q2 earnings, this week will see some bellwether consumer spending companies such as Nike (Monday), H&M and General Mills (Wednesday) report. Other corporates releasing results will include Prosus (Monday), Micron and Walgreens Boots Alliance (Thursday). Overnight in Asia, equity markets are continuing last week’s rally with the Hang Seng (+2.72%) leading gains thanks to a strong performance in Chinese tech firms. The Kospi (+2.08%), Nikkei (+1.04%), Shanghai Composite (+0.89%) and CSI (+1.24%) are all also up. Outside of Asia, DM equity futures point to further gains with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.19%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.44%) and DAX (+0.79%) moving higher. Bitcoin is above $21,000 after falling to as low as $17,600 last week for the first time since December 2020, while 10yr US yields are up around +2.5bps. Earlier today, data released showed that China’s industrial profits (-6.5% y/y) contracted at a slower pace in May following a big fall of -8.5% in April as companies resumed their activity in major manufacturing hubs amid easing Covid restrictions. In other overnight news, Russia has defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt ($100 million) for the first time in more than 100 years, after the grace period for the payment deadline expired on Sunday. Recapping last week now, markets grew increasingly concerned about a recession as the week went on, thanks to weak economic data, hawkish central bank rhetoric, and the threat of a Russian gas cut-off in Europe. That led to a significant rally in sovereign bonds as investors sought out safe havens and cast doubt on whether central banks could keep hiking into a downturn. Indeed, yields on 10yr bunds came down by -21.9bps over the week as a whole (+1.0bps Friday), which is their 3rd biggest weekly decline in the last decade. Yields on 10yr Treasuries also saw a similar, albeit less marked decline, with yields down -9.6bps (+4.3bps Friday). That decline in yields came in spite of continued hawkish central bank commentary, and on Friday we saw San Francisco Fed President Daly say that a 75bps hike in July was “where I’m starting”, thus joining a growing number of officials who’ve openly backed a 75bps move again. Bear in mind if the Fed did move by 75bps in July, that would mean the hiking cycle since March would now be at 225bps, which matches the entire hiking cycle we saw in 3 years between 2015 and 2018. Nevertheless, when it came to monetary policy expectations, the growing fears of a recession led investors to take out the probability of more aggressive tightening, with the fed funds rate priced in by December’s meeting down by -16.0bps over the week (-5.0bps Friday). And looking at the entire profile of meetings ahead, futures are now expecting the peak Federal funds rate to come as soon as March 2023, before pricing in cuts after that. With investors expecting somewhat more dovish central banks, global equities rallied strongly last week as they recovered from their worst weekly performance since the pandemic began. The S&P 500 gained +6.45% on the week, and its Friday advance of +3.06% was the best daily performance for the index since May 2020. Europe’s STOXX 600 put in a weaker +2.40% advance (+2.62% Friday), but matters weren’t helped by German equities, with the DAX losing -0.06% (+1.59% Friday) as concerns grew about a potential cut-off in Russian gas. That’s sent natural gas futures in Europe to a 3-month high, with last week seeing a further +9.14% gain (-3.63% Friday). Lastly, after the poor mid-week data including the flash PMIs for June, Friday’s releases did bring some modest respite. First, the final reading of the University of Michigan’s long-term inflation expectations was revised down to 3.1% (vs. 3.3% previously). The unexpected jump in that measure before the Fed’s meeting was said to be a factor in their move to 75bps, as they’re very concerned about the prospect that longer-term inflation expectations could become unanchored, making inflation much harder to control. Furthermore, new home sales for the US in May rose to an annualised rate of 696k (vs. 590k expected), whilst the previous month also saw upward revisions. To be fair though, it wasn’t all positive on Friday, and Germany’s Ifo business climate indicator fell to 92.3 in June (vs. 92.8 expected), which marks an end to two successive monthly increases in April and May. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/27/2022 - 08:06.....»»

European Stocks, US Futures, Cryptos All Rise With US Out On Holiday Asian stocks dipped, and European bourses gained alongside US equity futures and cryptos in subdued, choppy trading on Monday as fears over an imminent recession faded away briefly and investors bought the dip after last week's jarring selloff, and near record shorting... ... expecting markets to bounce amid speculation the rout had gone far enough to price in concerns about rising rates and slowing growth. S&P futures rose 0.7% or 25 points in muted trading, while Nasdaq 100 and Dow futures were up 0.8 and 0.5% respectively, however cash stocks are closed Monday for the Juneteenth market holiday.  Bitcoin gyrated around the key $20,000 mark, rebounding above the "nice, round number" after a weekend rout dragged bitcoin briefly below $18,000 amid widespread margin-call driven liquidations. A volatile crypto slump has become emblematic of the pressure on a range of assets from sharp Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes to tame high inflation. Volatility measures remained elevated as investors look for an entry point into equity markets roiled by soaring price pressures and worries that aggressive monetary tightening will tip major economies into recession. Like a broken record, JPMorgan strategists said pressure on stocks should ease in the second quarter as inflation moderates, which of course they say every other week, even as others - including Morgan Stanley - cautioned that more losses may be in store. “Both prolonged inflation and/or a sharp increase in rates from central banks will have a deep impact on growth perspectives,” said Jean-François Paren, global head of market research at Credit Agricole CIB. “If anything, current valuations are more the ‘exit point’ than the ‘entry point’.” European equities rebounded following the worst week for the gauge since March to trade near session highs with the Euro Stoxx 600 rising 0.5% with peripheral indexes faring slightly better. Banks, energy and autos are the best performing sectors.  Basic resources underperformed amid a slump in raw-material prices. Swedish engineering group ABB Ltd. declined after postponing a listing of its electric-car charging business, citing volatile market conditions. France’s equity benchmark lagged after President Emmanuel Macron lost his absolute majority in parliament, putting his reform agenda in peril. V2X drops back on to a 29-handle. Here are some of the most notable European movers: Renault shares rise as much as 7.6% after Jefferies upgraded the shares to buy, saying the carmaker offers a combination of strategic initiatives, capital release, near-zero core value and cost-driven earnings upside. Axfood gains as much as 7.7%, the most since March 23, as Handelsbanken upgrades the food retailer to buy as a “top-notch inflation hedge,” and sees strong earnings support ahead. Travel and Leisure stocks are among the best-performing subgroups on the wider Stoxx 600 after IATA predicted that the airline industry will return to profit next year. Among best performers on the SXTP are TUI, the world’s biggest tour operator, +5.6%; British Airways owner IAG +3.1%; Lufthansa +3.5%; Ryanair +2% Interparfums gains as much as 4.5% after Oddo BHF upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral, citing cheap valuation and good business levels. Varta jumps as much as 5% after Goldman Sachs initiates coverage with a buy rating, saying EV battery order announcements could be a major catalyst for a stock trading near an all-time low on enterprise value-to-Ebitda multiple basis. Euromoney rises as much as 29% after the information service business received an approach from Astorg Asset Management and Epiris regarding a possible cash offer. Kingspan plunges as much as 16% after its pre-close trading update, with the focus on declining orders that analysts say underline slowing demand, with peers such as Rockwool falling, too. Assa Abloy drops as much as 4.8%, the biggest laggard on Stockholm’s large-cap OMXS30 index, after Pareto Securities said it expects demand for the Swedish lock maker’s products to drop. EasyJet falls as much as 4.2% as analysts expect downgrades to consensus after the low-cost carrier cut 3Q and 4Q capacity outlook after cutting flights amid disruptions. Societe Generale and BNP Paribas retreat in Paris trading after President Emmanuel Macron and his allies failed to win an outright majority in the second round of French legislative elections. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged lower with MSCI’s index of Asian shares dropped for an eighth day, the longest stretch since February 2020, as investors worried about the odds of a global recession amid tighter monetary policies.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.3%, poised for an eighth session of declines that’s the longest since early 2020. Rate-sensitive technology shares dragged on the gauge. Materials stocks also fell as a dimming outlook for demand pushed prices of iron ore and some other commodities lower.  South Korean and Japanese equities led declines in the region. Chinese stocks stood out with gains as the nation’s banks kept key lending rates unchanged, in line with the People’s Bank of China’s measured easing stance. China has kept monetary policy loose even as global central banks embraced aggressive tightening, and that divergence has been giving the nation’s equities an advantage in recent weeks. Shares of China’s power producers rally after thermal coal futures fell 4.1%, the most since March 10. , amid a gloomy demand outlook. Iron ore and coking coal also tumbled. Iron ore is headed for its eighth straight day of losses, the longest falling streak since September. Chinese prices of coking coal used for steel-making have also slumped since the middle of last week, falling about 12%. The Asian stock benchmark is at a two-year low, tracking broader risk-off sentiment as concerns over global growth and inflation remain high. Monetary authorities’ focus on battling inflation is increasing worries that tightening may eventually push major economies into recessions.  Still, the MSCI regional gauge has performed better than its global peers this month, supported by China resilience.  While the recovery road may still be bumpy, “China this year could give the market a surprise,” Yifan Hu, regional chief investment officer and head of Asia Pacific macroeconomics for UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “Monetary policy is quite relaxed, and the economy is recovering. So I think as long as there’s no prolonged city-level lockdowns in the second half, we are positive for China’s market to continue to rally.” Japanese stocks fell amid growing concerns the US economy will enter a recession as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy.  The Topix fell 0.9% to 1,818.94 at market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 0.7% to 25,771.22. Shin-Etsu Chemical contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, decreasing 6.4%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 423 rose and 1,679 fell, while 68 were unchanged. “Investors are concerned about holding stocks as an asset class with US recession fears exceeding 50%,” said Masafumi Oshiden, a fund manager at BNY Mellon Asset Management. In FX, US cash Treasuries are closed for holiday. As such, European fixed income was relatively quiet with Bunds bull-steepening and richening ~3bps across the short end with money markets slightly trimming the policy tightening priced by year end. Gilts bear-flatten, the 2y yield rising 3bps near 2.23%. T-note futures drift sideways, cash USTs remain closed for US holiday. Peripheral spreads are generally steady. French bonds drop, leading semi-core underperformance after President Macron failed to win an absolute majority in Sunday’s Parliamentary elections. In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index dropped 0.3% after rising last week to the highest since April 2020, while the Norwegian krone outperformed along with commodity currencies as broader market sentiment revived. The greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers as haven demand declined due to a lack of trading incentives stemming from the US holiday and caution ahead of testimony from Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell later this week. The Norwegian krone gained as much as 1.4% against the dollar, after USD/NOK reached the highest level since 2020 last week. “The broader macro backdrop is still characterized by elevated recession risks, plus uncertainties from the Russian/Ukraine war and the challenge of controlling Covid in China,” Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in a note on Monday. “In this high risk market environment we would expect the broad dollar to remain relatively strong against most crosses” EUR/USD gained 0.3% to 1.0533: President Emmanuel Macron became the first president in decades to fail to garner an absolute majority in parliament, meaning he will have a hard time passing legislation, putting much of his agenda in peril. “The news doesn’t seem to have bothered the euro, and being more of a longer-term risk to the eurozone outlook, it is not too surprising,” say ING strategists including Francesco Pesole. “EUR/USD has once again found some anchor around the 1.0500 level, something we expect to happen over the summer months despite volatility looking likely to remain elevated” AUD/USD advances 0.8% to 0.6989 after tumbling 1.6% on Friday: “AUD led a mild improvement in pro-growth G-10 pairs, but with the US out on holidays and hawkish Fed rhetoric over the weekend, AUD remains vulnerable in a still uncertain market,” says Rodrigo Catril, a foreign-exchange strategist at National Australia Bank. USD/JPY falls 0.1% to 134.88: Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda expressed his concern over currency movements during a meeting, a comment that briefly strengthened the yen on Monday. In commodities, crude futures are quiet with WTI near $109.80. Most base metals trade in the red; LME tin falls 1.7%, underperforming peers. Spot gold is little changed at $1,841/oz. There is nothing on today's calendar since US markets are close for national holiday. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/20/2022 - 07:51.....»»

Ethereum Tumbles Below Holders' Average Cost Basis While bitcoin remains stuck to a $30,000, trading in a $2k range around the "nice, round number" for the past month... ...  In its latest weekly Crypto Compass note, UBS writes that what is most stunning is how bitcoin's biggest challenger, ETH has totally retraced its entire outperformance since late 2020 to the point where it has merely level-pegged with benchmark equities since both then and the start of 2019 for an equivalent unit of risk invested. Worse, after relentlessly dropping for 10 consecutive weeks.. ... the token which forms the backbone for web3, and which Goldman called the "Amazon of information" has just taken out a key long-term long-term support, tumbling 12% on Sunday to 1,500.22, the lowest price since Jan 2020. There are several reasons for Its latest relative softening according to UBS, chief among which is a sharper drop-off in activity that is a casualty of weaker transactional demand for Ethereum-based defi and NFTs. which in turn is a function of Fed tightening which is causing asset prices to tumble uniformly (in stocks, bonds and yes, crypto too) as "crash-correlations" approach 1. Some also point to concerns about a Terra-like implosion due to misplaced fears that a security attack on staked Ethereum could lead to a "fat tail" outcome ahead of the ETH 2 transition later this year due to 4 million ether deposited at Lido Finance, making the exchange a concentrated holder and threatening a centralized attack on the broader ETH network (Lido developer Vasiliy Shapovalov disagrees). Additionally, some slowing in the network as the so-called 'difficulty bomb' begins to bite ahead of the late-summer Merge may also be exerting some drag. Amid this wholesale selloff, bear-market blues, liquidations and outright capitulation have set in among even the most ardent crypto proponents (e.g., here). So much so that some have started to highlight how native technical indicators skew the balance of risks henceforth heavily to the downside. Yet in comparison to prior 'crypto winters,' bitcoin's price has yet to fall below holders' average cost base (23,500), although after today's drop, ether is now below the average cost basis which according to UBS is at 1,750. Furthermore, net unrealized profit/ loss metrics highlight specifically how long-term holders have yet to be tested. One way UBS suggests this could happen is via miners capitulating to sell down holdings of existing coins: indeed, their sales in early May coincided with the last lurch lower to and through 30k. Indeed, miners' businesses remain under significant pressure due to high energy costs and capex commitments, so their stock prices continue to make fresh lows even as the broader market has consolidated or even rebounded somewhat. Meanwhile, as UBS adds, there has been little positive news to offset investor concerns, and the Swiss bank proceeds to list some of these, starting with stablecoin issuers who have been put on notice by UST's collapse, while officials should feel spurred on to clamp down by Do Kown's plans for Terra2, Justin Sun's launch of the effective copycat USDD, and Tether's expansion onto Tezos. Japan's Diet has passed legislation allowing only banks and other licensed financial institutions to issue yen stablecoins as of next year. New York's Department of Finance likewise formalized guidance mandating full backing via short-dated T-bills or equivalent, segregated accounts and monthly audits by independent US CPAs. And a new UK consultation paper just floated procedures for dealing with failed issuers and makes provisions for systemically important designation Amongst the familiar fare of hacks, and outages, two additional items stood out in UBS' review of key events. One was the SEC moving to investigate Binance over its 2017 BNB exchange coin listing. The latter's price fell almost 10% in consequence. But the action matters beyond the fact that it involves the largest exchange by volumes and the industry's third largest non-stablecoin. It signals a fresh effort to enforce securities registration that will be applicable to the vast majority of crypto ventures. This comes atop other probes into the company that were already underway. These involve possible trading abuses by corporate insiders, insufficient segregation of the firm's local US subsidiary and concerns that it has been conducting unregulated broker-dealer activities. There is also the issue of whether founder CZ's ownership stakes in market-makers that are active on the platform constitute conflicts of interest. That said, UBS is quick to caution that none of this is to argue that crypto is sliding into oblivion, quite the contrary - after all Wall Street and Silicon Valley have invested tens of billions in crypto infrastructure and manpower (most did so around the time cryptos peaked),. Yet what it does point to is how the future will look very different. According to UBS' James Malcom, players will have to embrace regulation and collaborate with existing financial service providers; thus Singapore's just-launched Project Guardian, which represents a pilot project for the central bank to explore tokenized bonds and deposits via the establishment of permissioned liquidity pools in collaboration with DBS, JPMorgan and Marketnode. They must also have to compromise even as they seek to disrupt longstanding tradfi practices, per FTX's bold bid to disintermediate derivatives trading by clearing customers' swaps without the involvement of FCMs. The good news is that, as UBS concludes, those who can last beyond the near-term downward pressure and volatility, the longer-term demand-side outlook looks exceedingly healthy when recast in such terms. Accenture's newly released Future of Asian Wealth Management survey revealed that more than half of its 3,200 respondents already hold digital assets, and nearly three quarters plan to do so by year-end. However, two thirds of the 500 financial advisors surveyed have no plans to offer such services due to regulatory uncertainty and unfamiliarity with the space, which would require specialized research capabilities plus substantial investment in training for relationship managers.  Little wonder satisfaction ratings with primary counterparts score rather lowly.  It is also not surprising that many allocators end up relying on potentially less reliable online advice in consequence. UBS' Global Family Office Report 2022 finds, by contrast, most of the bank's clients are 'cryptocurious' rather than 'crypto-committed'— wanting to learn about the space rather than invest. It pegged just a quarter of Asian participants as active in the space, though that rises to more than a third in North America. The vast majority of allocations amount to less than 3% of portfolios and are being made to better understand the technology as much as on the expectation of strong, diversified returns at this point. As for Ethereum's latest tumble, it could certainly fall more amid capitualtory liquidations, now that selling below the average cost basis means cementing losses for retail investors. But when it comes to institutions one can be certain that instead of writing off their investments in the web3 space, most will simply double down, and why not: it is already widely accepted that after the Fed hikes enough to push the economy into recession (or depression) in the next few months, it will then proceed to aggressively cut rates again... ... with the benefit of QE again, and the moment Powell capitulates - which will be some time in late 2022 or early 2023  - is when all the "growth", high-beta assets that have gotten destroyed in the past few months, will erupt to new all time highs in anticipation of the biggest liquidity injection yet, one which is simply mandatory if for no other reason than central banks have to fund and finance the $150 trillion (with a T) spending over the next 30 years (via QE) that is unavoidable if the progressive "climate change" agenda is to pass. And it will - too many politicians and parties have staked their entire existence on it. Finally, none of this accounts for the growing risk that China, and its $54 trillion in bank assets or 150% more than the US... ... will suffer another devaluation, sparking another massive capital exodus using bitcoin and other crypto instruments. Tyler Durden Sat, 06/11/2022 - 13:06.....»»

Bitcoin rose to above $30,000 Friday as cryptos recovered from their rout, but the token is set to lock in its seventh weekly loss. Bitcoin is set to lock in its longest streak of weekly losses ever.Getty Images Bitcoin rose back above $30,000 Friday, after plunging to its lowest since December 2020. Cryptocurrencies across the board were rebounding from brutal sell-offs in this week's crypto bloodbath. Investors were regaining their appetite for risk, dented by the Fed's plan to hike interest rates. Bitcoin climbed back above $30,000 Friday as investors' appetite for risk assets returned, with cryptocurrencies across the board staging a recovery from a market rout.Bitcoin, the biggest cryptocurrency by market value, climbed 9.3% on the day to reach $30,335 as of 6:20 a.m. ET, according to CoinMarketCap data. It plunged to its lowest level since late 2020 on Thursday, briefly dipping below $26,000.Second-biggest crypto ether rose about 9% to trade at $2,065, having declined by more than 20% in the past week. Among other major tokens, cardano and solana shot up 28% and 20% respectively. Meanwhile, meme coin dogecoin was up 18%.While bitcoin had upward momentum Friday, it remains below the $45,000 levels it traded at in February, before the Ukraine war, and well below the record high of $69,000 hit in November.It is also still on track for a weekly loss, which would be its seventh in a row — the longest stretch of weekly losses in its history. Before this year, the token had not logged consecutive weekly losses."Some traders may see the sharp fall this month as an opportunity to buy the dip at a time but, given the hugely volatile nature of the coins, the crypto house of cards could tumble further," Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said. She added: "This latest plunge in the wheel of fortune demonstrates that speculating in cryptocurrencies is extremely high risk and are not suitable for investors who don't have money they can afford to lose.''This week's savage sell-off in the crypto market came after a dramatic collapse in a large stablecoin, combined with investor flight from high-risk assets.TerraUSD cratered after losing its peg to the dollar, and was last trading at around $0.15. Its sister coin luna has plunged effectively 100% to zero as of Friday, from over $80 a token a week ago.Along with stocks and bonds, the crypto market has deteriorated in recent weeks as soaring inflation has nudged the Federal Reserve to reel in the ultra-easy monetary policy it implemented to protect a pandemic-stricken economy.On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell lifted some spirits by playing down the chances of a bigger-than-normal interest-rate hike of 75 basis points in comments to Marketplace.In the last week alone, the crypto market as a whole has lost over $500 billion in value, according to CoinMarketCap.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Global Markets Tumble On Hawkish Central Bank Anguish, China Lockdown Fears The global selloff that started in Asia, sending China's CSI300 plunging to the lowest level since May 2020, slamming the offshore yuan below 6.60 and sparking a liquidation in oil and cryptos amid fears that the Shanghai lockdown will spread to the capital Beijing and lead to an even greater slowdown in the global economy... ... has quickly spread around the globe, slamming not just European markets but US equity futures which slid as much as 1% as traders fretted over the prospects of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve, Chinese lockdowns and disappointing earnings. S&P 500 futures were down 0.9% as of 7:00am EDT after plunging 2.8% on Friday, while Nasdaq futures retreated 0.8%, with the rout hammering tech stocks especially hard. Some context: the Nasdaq 100 Index has erased about $1 trillion in market value since Netflix released disappointing earnings and is closing in on oversold levels; the tech-heavy FANGMAN basket has lost $2.4 trillion in market cap from 2021 ATH as Netflix and Facebook  Meta, have lost most of their gains from past 5yrs. Remember when Facebook hit the $1tn market cap club in 2021? Now it’s worth exactly half that. But now the tech bear market is finally spreading all US stocks which closed at their lowest levels in more than a month on Friday as fears over a more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycle led to broad-based selling. Investors are entering another busy week for big technology companies’ earnings, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Paypal and Apple all reporting results although don't expect some miraculous surge. Investor mood was already morose after Fed chair erome Powell’s hawkish comments last week hurt sentiment already sapped by the war in Ukraine, a slowdown in China and the risks inflation poses to company earnings, according to Michael Hewson, chief analyst at CMC Markets in London. “The final straw appears to be a concern about the prospect of a policy mistake by central banks, and a possible recession by the end of the year,” he said. One sole glimmer of green, Twitter shares, rose 0.6% in premarket trading after a WSJ report that Elon Musk met with the social media platform’s executives on Sunday as the company turns more receptive toward the billionaire’s $43 billion takeover offer. As discussed earlier, U.S.-listed Chinese stocks fell in premarket trading as expanded Covid lockdown measures in major Chinese cities spark concerns over the country’s growth outlook. Pinduoduo led a decline in American depositary receipts, down 4.7% in premarket trade. E-commerce peers Alibaba Group fell 3.9% and JD.com lost 2.5%. Electric carmakers including Nio and Li Auto also fell. The weakness tracks a 4.9% slump in China’s CSI 300 Index, which closed at its lowest level in two years. Here are some other notable premarket movers: U.S.-listed Chinese stocks look set to open lower on Monday as expanded Covid lockdown measures in major cities sparked concerns over the country’s economic growth outlook. Pinduoduo (PDD US) led a decline in American depositary receipts, down 4.7% in premarket trade. E-commerce peers Alibaba (BABA US) fell 3.9% and JD.com (JD US) lost 2.5%. Electric carmakers including Nio (NIO US) and Li Auto (LI US) also fell. AT&T (T US) reinstated with a buy rating at Goldman Sachs with the focus turning to the telecom giant’s core business, while the broker cuts its rating on Verizon (VZ US) on valuation grounds. AT&T up 0.6% in premarket, Verizon -1.4%. Cenntro Electric (CENN US) rises as much as 22% premarket ahead of the electric-vehicle company’s quarterly update due after the close on Monday. Kellogg (K US) was downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank, which stays cautious and below consensus ahead of 1Q22 results because of headwinds including worsening inflation and supply chain disruptions. Shares down 1.4% in premarket. Morgan Stanley says DoorDash (DASH US) is the “best executor around” among food delivery companies, but awaits a better entry point as initiates at equal-weight with Street- low $100 target. Shares down 1.1% in premarket on low volume. GoDaddy (GDDY US) upgraded to overweight at Piper Sandler on strong free cash flow potential, with the broker cutting its ratings on Wix.com (WIX US) and Squarespace (SQSP US) in a rejig of its digital presence coverage. GoDaddy little changed in premarket, Wix.com and Squarespace not traded. Coca-Cola and Activision Blizzard are among companies reporting earnings today. In Europe, markets are under heavy pressure: Euro Stoxx 50 drops as much as 2.6% with several other core indexes down over 2%. Spain’s IBEX outperforms. Miners are the weakest performers with the Stoxx 600 sector down over 5%. Energy and consumer products and services similarly lag.  Europe’s Basic Resources Index  crashed 6%, and was set for the worst daily drop since March 2020. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Ubisoft shares rise as much as 12% after Bloomberg reported the video-game publisher is attracting takeover interest from private equity firms including Blackstone and KKR. Garanti stock rallies as much as 5.6% after parent BBVA sweetened its voluntary offer for the Turkish lender and the unit said 1Q net income tripled. Biogaia shares rise as much as 9.6% after the Swedish food-additives and supplements maker published preliminary 1Q sales figures, which included a large beat on operating profit and net sales. Barco shares rise as much as 4.2% after the projector maker’s Cinionic JV won a contract to install laser projectors in 3,500 U.S. auditoriums of cinema chain operator AMC. The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources and Energy sub- indexes both slumped on Monday amid broad declines for commodities prices on concerns that a growing Covid-19 outbreak in China will hit demand. Shell -4.5%, TotalEnergies SE -3.1%, Glencore -6.0%, Anglo American -6.5% Philips stock falls as much as 11% after publishing its latest earnings, where higher provisions related to its recall of Dreamstation breathing machines overshadowed better-than-expected 1Q sales. Roche shares fell as much as 3.6% after the Swiss pharma company reported mixed first quarter results. Sales beat expectations due to a boost to the diagnostics division, while the pharmaceutical unit missed. As we reported on Sunday, the big news out of France is that Macron won the second round of the Presidential Election with 58.6% of the vote vs Le Pen at 41.4%, while Le Pen conceded defeat after the initial projections, according to Reuters and Sky News. Elsewhere, ECB President Lagarde commented that interest rate hikes will not lower energy prices, according to Barron’s. ECB policymakers are said to be keen to finish bond purchases as soon as possible and possibly hike rates in July but no later than August, while they are leaning towards two rate moves this year with three also a possibility, according to Reuters sources. However, an ECB spokesperson declined to comment on the timing of ending bond purchases and potential interest rate increases. The EU is said to prepare the creation of a new trade and tech council with India, according to FT sources. The new forum could be unveiled on Monday during the European Commission President’s visit to India. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slumped the most since March 11 as China’s worsening Covid-19 outbreak and a looming rate hike by the Federal Reserve hurt risk sentiment.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 2.2% Monday, setting off a grim start to the region’s busiest week for earnings. The biggest drags were technology stocks sensitive to higher interest rates, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Alibaba and Tencent.  Equities in mainland China and Hong Kong were among the region’s worst performers. Chinese stocks slid to a two year low amid fears that rising infections in Beijing may spur an unprecedented city-wide lockdown of the capital. The Chinese regulator also ordered platform companies to better handle online violence, dragging tech stocks lower. READ: China Lockdown Angst Rips Through Markets as Stocks, Yuan Plunge The lockdowns that have now expanded to parts of Beijing will “cause a logistical problem that’s going to affect not just China but also the rest of the world,” Jeffrey Halley, Asia Pacific senior market analyst at Oanda, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.  With no signs of change in Covid zero policy and very little in terms of actual stimulus, “that all points to lower China stocks and we are going to see a weaker yuan going forward,” he added. Investors are also on guard for corporate earnings. Stock-market heavyweights including Kweichow Moutai in China and Samsung Electronics in South Korea are expected to release first-quarter results this week.   With a number of Fed speakers recently showing support for 50-basis-point hikes, tech shares led declines of major gauges in the region. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 10% from its January high.   Japanese equities dropped, extending a global selloff amid prospects for aggressive U.S. interest-rate hikes and a worsening Covid outbreak in China. Electronics and machinery makers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 1.5%, with 32 of 33 industry groups in the red. Fast Retailing and SoftBank Group were the largest contributors to a 1.9% loss in the Nikkei 225. Indian stocks also fell, joining their peers across Asia, as appetite for risk waned amid renewed concerns over Covid infections and its possible impact on business growth.  The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 1.1% to 56,579.89, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index slipped 1.3% to 16,953.95. Reliance Industries Ltd. lost 2.3%, the most in seven weeks. It was the biggest drag on the Sensex, which saw 23 of its 30 stocks trading lower.   All but one of 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a gauge of metal stocks.  The continued war in Ukraine and fears of a wider lockdown in Beijing are weighing on sentiment, already impacted by the risk of a global slowdown as the U.S. Fed raises rates to tame inflation. Of the six Nifty 50 firms that have announced results so far, four have missed, while two have beaten analyst estimates. Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank are among the companies releasing Jan-March earnings this week.  With risk off, safe havens were mostly bid: Treasuries advanced across the curve, with yields on the belly falling about 10bps and 10Y yields sliding 8bps to 2.833%. The belly of the UST curve outperforms by 1-2bps. Peripheral spreads widen to core with 10y Italy lagging peers on the rally. European bonds advanced, yet underperformed Treasuries; the spread between French 10-year bond yields and German equivalents tightened at the open after President Emmanuel Macron was re-elected as French president, only to widen as haven demand supported bunds. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; preliminary estimates are for around $25 billion this week. •    Three-month dollar Libor +1.11bp to 1.22486%. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose a third day to the highest level since May 2020; the greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen and the Swiss franc; AUD and NZD lag G-10 peers. USD/JPY holds above 128. The euro fell to its lowest level versus the dollar since March 2020, erasing earlier gains amid broader greenback strength.  The pound slumped to the lowest versus the dollar since September 2020 and gilts advanced. The Aussie was the worst G-10 performer amid fears over the outlook for China’s demand for iron ore and with the selloff boosted by options-related selling. The yen rose, as concerns about the economic impact of accelerating U.S. rate increases put a pause on the recent aggressive selling of the currency. Japan’s government bonds tracked Treasuries higher with support from purchases by the Bank of Japan. Perhaps most importantly, the yuan - which until now had resisted any weakness - plunged again, dropping to the lowest level in 17 months as the offshore yuan dropped below 6.60 the lowest level since Nov 2020, spurring a selloff in emerging-market currencies. In commodities, crude futures sold ell off with WTI down over 4% and back on a $97-handle. Base metals are similarly deep in the red. Spot gold drops ~$14 to trade near $1,916/oz. Monday’s pullback in the soaring price of commodities since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has done little to assuage concerns about runaway inflation. Fed Jerome Powell had outlined his most bold approach yet to reining in surging prices and the European Central Bank signaled stronger tightening. Bitcoin continued to tumble alongside the broader crypto market, even though the harder the stocks fall and the more the Fed tightens, the more it will eventually have to ease, unleashing the next surge higher in cryptos which we expect to push bitcoin over $100,000 and Ether over $10,000. Looking at the calendar, the economic data slate includes March Chicago Fed national activity (8:30am) and April Dallas Fed manufacturing activity(10:30am); consumer confidence, GDP, PCE deflator and University of Michigan sentiment are ahead this week. Today we will earnings from Coca-Cola, Activision Blizzard, Vivendi. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.7% to 4,235.25 STOXX Europe 600 down 1.8% to 445.31 MXAP down 2.0% to 166.02 MXAPJ down 2.4% to 546.02 Nikkei down 1.9% to 26,590.78 Topix down 1.5% to 1,876.52 Hang Seng Index down 3.7% to 19,869.34 Shanghai Composite down 5.1% to 2,928.51 Sensex down 1.0% to 56,637.35 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 7,473.28 Kospi down 1.8% to 2,657.13 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.89% Euro down 0.4% to $1.0751 Brent Futures down 4.4% to $101.96/bbl Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,920.54 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.20% to 101.43 Top Overnight  News from Bloomberg China’s coronavirus outbreak worsened as rising cases in Beijing sparked jitters about an unprecedented lockdown of the capital, with policy makers racing to avert a Shanghai-style crisis that’s already wrought havoc on the financial hub China must take stronger action to boost growth above 5% in the second quarter, said a central bank adviser who warned the country needs to lay a foundation for achieving its full-year target in the face of rising economic risks A sustained and substantial increase in U.S. real yields would be bad news for developing nations as it typically boosts the dollar and sucks capital out of riskier assets, like in 2008 and 2013 The U.S. announced it would start sending diplomats back to Ukraine and provide more military aid as Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Kyiv late on Sunday night, in the highest- level U.S. visit to the war-torn country since Russia invaded China’s central bank stepped up its support for several distressed developers by allowing banks and bad-debt managers to loosen restrictions on some loans to ease a cash crunch, according to people familiar with the matter A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded negatively after last Friday's stock rout on Wall Street with risk sentiment hampered by holiday closures, China's COVID-19 woes and as participants brace for a busy week of key earnings releases. Nikkei 225 shed around 500 points with sentiment not helped by several earnings guidance downgrades and with Nissan shares were hit as alliance partner Renault mulls selling a partial stake in the Japanese automaker. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed on the COVID situation after daily deaths in Shanghai rose again and with the city to conduct another round of mass testing, while Beijing also scrambles to contain an outbreak with its Chaoyang district to require residents and workers to undergo three COVID-19 tests this week. Top Asian News Asia Stocks Fall Most in Six Weeks as China Outbreak Worsens China Woes Stoking Inflation Angst Set to Weigh on the Euro Shimao Unit Proposes to Pay Down Puttable Bond Faster: REDD Loan Curbs Eased for Distressed Developers: Evergrande Update European cash markets kicked off the week lower across the board with a relatively broad-based performance seen across the majors. Sectors are lower across the board with a clear defensive tilt: Energy and Basic Resources sit at the bottom of the bunch amid hefty downside in underlying commodities. Stateside futures are lower in tandem with the broader market sentiment, whilst the NQ is slightly more cushioned by the earlier decline in yields. Twitter is reportedly re-examining Elon Musk’s bid and be more receptive to a deal with the sides meeting on Sunday to discuss the proposal. It was separately reported that Twitter is facing increasing shareholder pressure to negotiate with Elon Musk in his takeover bid and that the Co. is in talks with Elon Musk in which a potential deal could be made as early as this week, according to WSJ. Top European News Macron Gets Second Chance to Show France His Vision Can Work Credit Suisse Special Audit Backed by Norway’s Wealth Fund SocGen Too Quick to Axe Boss Accused of Trying to Kiss Colleague Art Seized at U.S. Homes Part of Crackdown on Wealthy Russians FX: DXY sets new 2022 peak at 101.750 amid safety flight and sharp slide in crude alongside other commodities. Yen back in favour as risk sentiment sours irrespective of denials about joint Japanese and US intervention discussion - Usd/Jpy towards base of 128.87-127.89 range. Aussie underperforms on Anzac Day due to steep decline in copper and iron ore - Aud/Usd tests 0.7150 and Aud/Nzd cross under 1.0850 vs 1.0940 at one stage overnight. Yuan extends depreciation as Covid spreads to a district in Beijing and PBoC continues to lower Cny midpoint reference rate - Usd/Cnh just shy of 6.6000, Usd/Cny eyeing 6.5650. Euro averts 1.0700 test, narrowly, and pares more losses after surprisingly upbeat Ifo survey, on the surface - Eur/Usd rebounds to circa 1.0750, but still well below Macron victory high. Pound loses Fib support on the way through 1.2800 and sub-8400 vs Dollar and Euro respectively. Fixed Income Debt futures firm as risk appetite wanes, but bonds fade beyond 154.50 in Bunds, 119.00 in Gilts and 119-25 in the 10 year T-note. Core EZ bonds lose momentum after German Ifo survey beats and irrespective of less encouraging accompanying statements. French OATs off peak within 147.38-146.28 range posted on confirmation of Macron defeating Le Pen to retain Presidency. European Commission sells EUR 2.499bln (exp. EUR 2.500bln) 0.4% 2037 NGEU; b/c 2.05x (prev. 1.49x), average yield 1.626% (prev. 0.375%). Commodities: WTI and Brent June contacts have continued to decline since the resumption of futures trading. Spot gold has been caged to a near-USD 5/oz range since the European open as the impact of a firming Buck negated the effects of lower yields at the time. Base metals are in a sea of red as China's lockdown woes hit the demand side of the equation – with LME aluminium and zinc the laggards at the time of writing. US Event Calendar 08:30: March Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.45, prior 0.51 10:00: Revisions: Retail Sales, Inventories 10:30: April Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 4.8, prior 8.7 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I survived a weekend alone with my kids but the only way for all of us to cope was to comfort eat and spend so much time on Netflix that I may as well cancel my subscription as there is nothing left to watch now. Never has Mum been so welcome by an adult, 3 kids and a dog, as she was on her return last night. Parenting is hard! Central bankers are finding it hard too at the moment and it was a fascinating past week on that front as several important central bankers belatedly played a game of leapfrog on who could make the most aggressively hawkish rhetoric on taming inflation. Those speaking at the start of the week might have seemed hawkish at the time but by the end of the week they almost looked dovish. The IMF/World Bank gathering probably focused the minds of all the Governors, Presidents and Chairs present and hawkishness spread through the event like wildfire with the notable exception of Japan's Kuroda who is seemingly sticking to the country's YCC. We are now in the Fed blackout period so they won't add to the hawkishness for the 9.5 days before we get the FOMC decision. Note that the BoJ meet on Thursday although nothing suggests they are going to pivot and will remain the last hawkish shoe to drop. The French election has passed without incident with President Macron gaining 58.6% of the vote vs. 41.4% for Le Pen. Macron won 66.1% of the second round vote in 2017 and with him unable to stand in 2027 and with the traditional parties share of the vote at record lows who knows where French politics will be by then. However much water will flow under Le Pont des Arts before we need to worry about that. Meanwhile, the next hurdle for Macron will come with the Parliamentary elections on the 12th and 19th of June. Commonly referred to as the ‘third round’, the elections will be crucial as it will define the make-up of the government Macron must rely on to push through his reform program. See Marc de-Muizon's blog last night here for more on this. The Euro popped nearly +0.6% higher at the Asian open after the results became clear but has subsequently dipped into negative territory as risk off dominates in Asia. Mainland Chinese stocks are sliding with the Shanghai Composite (-1.95%) and CSI (-2.39%) down, falling to its lowest level since 2020 amid the worsening Covid situation in China, particularly in the financial hub of Shanghai. Strict restrictions have begun to spread, with authorities ordering mandatory Covid tests in a district of Beijing and many buildings locked down. The Hang Seng (-2.47%) is also lagging and elsewhere, the Nikkei (-1.94%) and Kospi (-1.44%) are weak. Outside of Asia, futures contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.42%) and Nasdaq (-0.30%) are lower with 2 and 10yr US yields both around -5bps lower. Brent and WTI are both around -2.9%. Moving on to this week now and it is an important one for European inflation with German CPI on Thursday and the French and Italian equivalent (plus PPI) on Friday with the overall Euro CPI the same day. US (Thursday) and European Q1 GDP (Friday) will also be of interest. Back to the US and inflation related data will be the closest watched with Friday's ECI expected to be strong. This is one of the key indicators the Fed use for labour market strength. The core PCE deflator (the Fed's preferred inflation measure) also comes out as part of the income and spending report data on Friday. The rate of growth may well tick down here so this might provide a shred of good news on inflation without changing the story too much. It will be an important week for corporate earnings too with 179 of the S&P 500 reporting and 134 in the Stoxx 600. Big US tech will be the highlight with Microsoft and Alphabet (tomorrow), Meta (Wednesday), and Apple and Amazon (Thursday). Consumption patterns will be in focus when we get results from Coca-Cola (today), Mondelez, Chipotle (tomorrow), Kraft Heinz (Wednesday) and McDonald's (Thursday). Meanwhile, a range of banks across the globe will give a pulse check on consumer credit. Notable reporters will include HSBC, UBS, Santander (tomorrow), Credit Suisse (Wednesday), Barclays (Thursday), finishing with BBVA and NatWest on Friday. Other notable financials reporting will include Visa (tomorrow), PayPal (Wednesday) and Mastercard (Thursday). Other tech-related companies releasing results will include Activision Blizzard (Monday), LG, Qualcomm, Spotify (Wednesday), Samsung, Intel and Twitter (Thursday). In healthcare, another sector that benefitted from the pandemic, reporters will include Novartis (tomorrow), GlaxoSmithKline (Wednesday), Eli Lilly, Merck, Sanofi (Thursday) and AstraZeneca (Friday). To see how the commodity rally and the focus on energy transition affected major commodity companies worldwide, markets will get earnings from Iberdrola, Vale (Wednesday), Total, Repsol (Thursday), Exxon, Orsted, Chevron and Eni (Friday). Downstream users like transport firms will report too, including General Motors (tomorrow), Boeing, Mercedes-Benz and Ford (Wednesday). Other notable corporates releasing results will include Texas Instruments, General Electric, UPS and Caterpillar. The rest of the day by day calendar of events appears at the end as usual on a Monday. Reviewing last week now, as discussed at the top a cadre of central bank officials reinforced the idea that monetary policy needs to tighten on both sides of the Atlantic this year, thus driving sovereign yields higher. Chair Powell, in his last remarks before the Fed’s May meeting communications blackout, lent credence to the wisdom of front loading the hiking cycle and getting policy rates to neutral as quickly as possible. Regional Fed presidents, spanning ideologies, concurred throughout the week. Short-term markets ended the week pricing more than 150 basis points of tightening over the next three meetings, embedding some risk premium for a 75 basis point hike at each meeting. Futures markets are implying Fed policy rates will be north of 2.80% by the end of the year, above the Fed’s estimates of neutral. President Lagarde was careful to draw a distinction between the US and European situation, but nevertheless would not rule out an increase to ECB policy rates as early as July, following the cessation of net APP purchases, which is likely early in the third quarter. Markets are pricing 24 basis points of ECB tightening by the July meeting, and 85 basis points of tightening for the rest of the year. Bank of England Governor Bailey highlighted the path of policy was laced with uncertainty, but inflation was likely to increase due to rising energy costs. Bailey added the bank would not sell its security holdings into fragile markets. Even committed dove, Ingves of the Swedish Central Bank, rowed back on his previous mantras and acknowledged tightening was needed. As a result, Sovereign yields were higher in each jurisdiction, with 10yr Treasury, bund, and gilt yields increasing +8.2bps (-1.2bps Friday), +10.6bps (+2.4bps Friday), and +7.4bps (-4.9bps Friday), respectively. For their part, 10yr OAT yields closed the week at a +44.5bp spread above bund equivalents, their tightest since March, as President Macron’s polling advantage increased heading into yesterday’s election. Equity indices retreated on the tighter policy path. The STOXX 600 fell -1.42% (-1.79% Friday) while the S&P 500 was -2.75% lower (-2.77% Friday), bringing it into correction territory YTD (-10.37%) again. Mega cap tech stocks bore the brunt, with FANG+ falling -8.76% (-1.99%) as higher discount rates hit valuations. The mega cap losses accelerated after Netflix reported it lost subscribers in the first quarter, which sent its share prices more than -35% lower. The reprieve was only temporary the following day when Tesla reported a record profit on the back of surging electric car demand. Brent crude oil futures were relatively subdued by comparison to other asset classes and recent volatility, falling -5.43% (-2.48% Friday) over the week to $105.64/bbl. Elsewhere the IMF revised down their global growth expectations in light of Russia’s invasion, expecting the global economy to grow 3.6 percent in each of the next two years. Fighting continued in eastern Ukraine, with Russia declaring victory over the port city of Mariupol, while there was not any material public progress in peace negotiations. The Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee said Russia’s remuneration of foreign currency bonds with rubles would constitute a default and trigger credit default swaps. Russia has a 30-day grace period, which ends May 4, to make creditors whole. Tyler Durden Mon, 04/25/2022 - 07:48.....»»

Fear And Panic As Bitcoin Crashes 50% From All Time High Just two months after cryptos hit an all time high amid widespread euphoria that the newly launched bitcoin ETF would lead to even more substantial upside, the two largest tokens have lost half of their value, with the broader crypto sector suffering more than $1 trillion in losses amid an accelerating liquidation panic that the Fed's tightening cycle will lead to another crypto winter.  Such is the volatility in the sector where, as Bloomberg put it overnight, there has been just one constant recently: "decline after decline after decline." Of course, for veteran hodlers, Bloomberg hyperbole seems trivial in a world where 80% drawdowns are the norm and the current drop may have a ways to go before it hits a bottom, before a new all time high is hit. Where Bloomberg is right however, is that superlatives for the latest carnage have been easy to come by: Friday’s decline led to the liquidation of more than $1.1 billion in crypto futures positions and overall more than $1 trillion in market value has been destroyed since the last peak. In other words, "the meltdown is pouring salt on an already-deep wound." After the latest furious puke that pushed Bitcoin RSI's indicator to the most oversold level since the covid crash in March of 2020... ... Bitcoin, which lost more than 12% on Friday, saw its price drop just above $34,000 with Ethereum sliding as low as $2,400, as the two largest digital assets now trade at a 50% discount from their all time highs and are back to levels last seen in late July, early August. Other digital currencies have suffered just as much, if not more, most meme coins mired in similar drawdowns. While the selling has been relentless for the past two months, it accelerated in the past three weeks, after the latest Fed minutes - published in early January - showed its intention to not only hike rates but to accelerate the unwind of its balance sheet, which has sent all "bubble baskets" plunging, with bitcoin getting hit especially hard amid the carnage. And while there have been much larger percentage drawdowns for both Bitcoin and the aggregate market, according to Bespoke,  this marks the second-largest ever decline in dollar terms for both. “It gives an idea of the scale of value destruction that percentage declines can mask,” wrote Bespoke analysts in a note. “Crypto is, of course, vulnerable to these sorts of selloffs given its naturally higher volatility historically, but given how large market caps have gotten, the volatility is worth thinking about both in raw dollar terms as well as in percentage terms.” Another fact that Bloomberg gets right, is that over the past year, cryptos have transformed from relatively uncorrelated assets providing diversification during market turbulence, into what is effectively a high beta stock. This is easily seen in the following chart showing the 60d correlation between cryptos and stocks. One can thank institutional adoption for that, because the same institutions that are now facing margin calls on their tech holdings, are also dumping cryptos to provide much needed liquidity. “Crypto is reacting to the same kind of dynamics that are weighing on risk-assets globally,” said Stephane Ouellette, chief executive and co-founder of institutional crypto-platform FRNT Financial. “Unfortunately for some of the mature projects like BTC, there is so much cross-correlation within the crypto asset class it’s almost a certainty that it falls, at least temporarily in a broader alt-coin valuation contraction.” Antoni Trenchev,, co-founder of Nexo, cites Bitcoin’s correlation to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which right now is near the highest in a decade. “Bitcoin is being battered by a wave of risk-off sentiment. For further cues, keep an eye on traditional markets,” he said. “Fear and unease among investors is palpable.” According to  Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities, it’s useful to think of cryptocurrencies as living in the same space as other speculative sectors, including special-purpose acquisition companies and electric-vehicle makers. “When we’re in an environment where all of those riskier assets are selling off, crypto is going to find itself doing the same,” Hogan said. “When the Nasdaq 100 or any of the other more-speculative, rapid-growth, momentum-type asset classes start to gain some traction, so will cryptocurrencies.” Unfortunately for Bitcoin longs, one place where the token's correlation is especially high is that to such market naplam as Cathie Wood’s sinking ARK Innovation ETF, a pandemic poster-child of speculative risk-taking. That correlation stands at around 60% year-to-date, versus about 14% for the price of gold, according to Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, a research firm focused on technical analysis. It’s “reminding us to categorize Bitcoin and altcoins as risk assets rather than safe havens,” she said. Perhaps unaware what "hodling" means, data from Coinglass shows that more than 342,000 traders had their positions closed over the past 24 hours, with liquidations totaling roughly $1.1 billion. “Digital-currency markets in total have been challenged this month,” said Jonathan Padilla, co-founder of Snickerdoodle Labs, a blockchain company focused on data privacy. “There’s definitely some pain there.” Though liquidations have spiked, the numbers are rather muted when compared to previous declines, according to Noelle Acheson, head of market insights at Genesis Global Trading. Acheson points out that Bitcoin’s one-week skew, which compares the cost of bearish options to bullish ones, spiked to almost 15% on Wednesday compared to an average of about 6% in the past seven days. “This flagged a jump in bearish sentiment, in line with overall market jitters given the current macro uncertainty,” she said. Amid the pain, some of bitcoin's most faithful are professing patience... HODLing #Bitcoin is painful. If you survive the journey, you will truly know what HODL means. — Dan Held (@danheld) January 21, 2022 ... while others are starting to wonder out loud at what point the battering might end. Famed crypto investor and (former?) billionaire Mike Novogratz mused on Twitter that “this will be a year where people realize being an investor is a difficult job.” 2600 $Eth would be the next support. Hoping and thinking it holds. Unfortunately Russel has like 14 percent more to go before it bottoms. Won’t be a straight line down. This will be a year where people realize being an investor is a difficult job. — Mike Novogratz (@novogratz) January 21, 2022 Unfortunately for Novogratz, 2600 did not hold and Eth is now trading below 2,400. Still, many point out that like on all previous occasions when cryptos crashed, they eventually rebounded to new all time highs. At some point, sellers will become exhausted and the market could see some capitulation soon, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co. “When that happens, the institutions will come back in in a meaningful way,” he said. “Once the asset class becomes more washed-out, they’ll have a lot more confidence to come back in and buy them. They know that cryptos are not going away, so they’ll have to move back into them before long.” But it's not just central bank tightening fears and liquidation technicals that have depressed cryptos: one can also throw in a relentless news cycle, where just in recent days, regulators from Russia, the U.K., Singapore and Spain all announced interventions that could undermine crypto companies looking to grow in those regions. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is preparing to release an initial government-wide strategy for digital assets as soon as next month and task federal agencies with assessing the risks and opportunities that they pose, Bloomberg reported late on Friday. Testing the resilience and patience of the faithful, so far the sharp drop below the psychological level of $40,000 has failed to serve as an upward inflection point. Crypto proponents say heavy liquidations often serve to cut out the froth in easy-win asset speculation, helping to solidify new bottoms in the market. Ultimately, the real support will come from none other than the Fed, which will soon realize that it is hiking into a slowing economy... Tightening into a slowdown… Déjà vu? pic.twitter.com/pczXzMVSxb — Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) January 22, 2022 ... and will be forced to be far more dovish during this week's FOMC meeting, a reversal which should serve to send risk assets sharply higher. “Fear and unease among investors is palpable,” Nexo's Trenchev,said. “If we see a bigger selloff in equities, expect the Fed to verbally intervene to calm nerves and that’s when Bitcoin and other cryptos will bounce.” In other words, the more the Fed tightens - or the more the Fed scares markets into believing it will tighten - the bigger the market selloff, and the worse the economic slowdown, until eventually Powell will be forced to ease, a key point brought up by  Bank of America CIO Michael Hartnett yesterday. Incidentally, it also means that the faster markets crash, the faster the Fed panics, and is forced to stabilize stocks because even if the new and improved Powell Put is well below previous levels, the Fed can't risk a market crash just to appease Biden's demands for an inflationary slowdown so Democrats aren't destroyed in the midterms. And incidentally, this weekend's ongoing selloff in cryptos means that while stocks are currently mercifully not trading, Monday should be another bloodbath, as Jim Bianco reminds us. The BTC/SPX correlation is "significant" Or as @jeffdorsman says, crypto is a 24/7 VIX. See the table, as of this writing, Crypto is down another 10% since Friday's NYSE Close. If this hold, no-coiners have about 36 more hours to gloat before it is their turn. pic.twitter.com/JpWeMJZbAf — Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth (@biancoresearch) January 22, 2022 One thing is certain: several more 2% drops in the Nasdaq, and Powell - who two years ago crossed the Fed's final rubicon and bought corporate bonds to halt a catastrophic collapse - will be making emergency phone calls to put an end to the carnage. As such, a continuation of the meltdown may just be the best thing that the bitcoin faithful can hope for. Tyler Durden Sat, 01/22/2022 - 13:04.....»»

Stocks have remained buoyant on the back of strong earnings and economic optimism. But crypto has taken a hit in recent days. A strong earnings season has boosted optimism on Wall Street.JOHANNES EISELE/Getty Images US futures were trading mixed on Friday, after stocks rose to close at record highs the prior day. Equities have stayed remarkably strong despite soaring inflation, with economic data lifting investors' spirits. Yet cryptocurrencies have taken a tumble in recent days, after a breakneck rally. US stock futures were mixed Friday after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs the previous day, as investors became more optimistic about the economic outlook.Elsewhere, however, bitcoin fell for the fifth day in a row. It traded at around $56,878, well below a record high of above $68,000 touched just over a week ago.S&P 500 futures were down 0.1%, and Dow Jones futures slipped 0.33%, signaling a downbeat start to trading later in the day. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.35% higher.The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both finished at new highs Thursday, as corporate earnings continued to impress investors and a fall in weekly jobless claims cooled fears about the US economy.Overnight, China's CSI 300 closed 1.08% higher, while Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 0.5%. In the early going Friday, Europe's continent-wide Stoxx 600 slipped 0.14%. Cases of COVID-19 are surging in Europe, and Austria said Friday it will go into full lockdown on Monday and introduce compulsory vaccinations.Global stocks have remained buoyant despite investors' worries about surging inflation and the likelihood that central banks will soon cut back on their support for economies. This is in part because bond yields have stayed low, making the equity market look more attractive.Earnings season has helped support US stocks in particular. Nvidia on Thursday jumped 8.25% after posting record revenue, while stock in Macy's and Kohl's jumped after the department store chains released strong earnings.New US jobless claims fell to a pandemic low of 268,000 last week, data showed Thursday, in the latest sign that the economic recovery is broadly on track."The US economy is still looking pretty good after weekly jobless claims showed the labor market recovery continues," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at trading platform Oanda.Investors will be keeping a close eye on Washington, where the House is expected to pass President Joe Biden's "Build Back Better" bill later Friday. The bill lays out plans to spend $1.85 trillion on education, healthcare and the climate.Also in focus is Biden's choice for leader of the Federal Reserve — whether to keep Jerome Powell as Fed chair or to put Fed Governor Lael Brainard in his place. Earlier this week, Biden said he could announce the decision by Friday.Read more: 2022 will be 'the year of the stock picker' as index gains stall, Morgan Stanley says. Here are 27 high-quality growth stocks they're most bullish on for the new year.Cryptocurrencies continued to slide Friday, with bitcoin down 4.4% to $56,878 on the Bitstamp exchange. The world's biggest cryptocurrency has fallen around 17% from the record high of above $68,600 reached November 10.Analysts have put forward numerous reasons for its sharp decline, such as the new crypto tax rules included in Biden's $1 trillion infrastructure bill and a recent warning from Beijing about crypto mining in China. Some suggest the fall is a natural pullback after the token surged to new heights.Other digital currencies — such as ether, binance coin, and solana — have fallen sharply in recent days, but were paring those losses on Friday.Oil prices fell as the new surge of coronavirus cases in Europe raised concerns about economic recovery and as traders weighed the chances of countries' releasing strategic reserves in response to strong inflation. Brent crude was down 1.83% to $79.77 a barrel, while WTI crude was 1.7% lower at $77.12 a barrel.Bond yields slipped, with the yield on the key 10-year US Treasury note down 2.9 basis points to 1.558%. Yields move inversely to prices.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

JPMorgan: Institutions Are Rotating Out Of Gold Into Bitcoin As A Better Inflation Hedge For much of the summer, when bitcoin was shedding its April 15 all time high of $63,000 by more than half, Wall Street was bombarded with weekly notes from JPMorgan's cross-asset strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou who would encourage selling, telling institutional clients that upward momentum had fizzled and that the only logical direction for bitcoin was lower. Those notes ended abruptly in July when Bitcoin reversed sharply and start its latest upward trek, and were instead replaced with warnings that there is too much euphoria in the market and thus the only logical direction for bitcoin was... you can guess the rest. Well, maybe not, because on Wednesday bitcoin soared higher, surging above $55,000 and once again sporting a market cap of over $1 trillion, and pushing the total market cap of all crypto markets above $2.3 trillion (still below the market cap of one Apple, Inc.), and suddenly the doom and gloom from JPM's Panigirtzoglou has done a 180, with the quant writing in his latest Flows and Liquidity report published overnight that "the increase in the share of bitcoin is a healthy development as it is more likely to reflect institutional participation than smaller cryptocurrencies." Blindsided by the surge in bitcoin, the JPM strategist was also wrong about the institutional preference for bitcoin vs ethereum, writing two weeks ago that "JPMorgan: Institutional Investors Are Piling Into Ethereum, Leaving Bitcoin" - starting in early October, the two largest cryptos have decoupled with Bitcoin clearly outperforming its smaller peer. Not surprisingly Panigirtzoglou addressed this latest flub, writing in his note that "we had argued before our position proxies based on CME futures had showed strong preference for ethereum vs. bitcoin by institutional investors during most of August and September. But as shown in Figure 16 this preference appears to be have been reversing since the end of September with a sharp rebound in the position proxy for bitcoin. This rebound reflects at least partly short covering as indicated by Figure 17 which depicts bitcoin futures liquidations across all futures exchanges. According to Figure 17 short bitcoin futures position liquidations appear to have picked up over the past week or two." Having completed his damage control homework, Panigirtzoglou then shifted to the main thrust of his note, which was once again trying to explain why bitcoin was surging, where he offered three distinct reasons. While the first two have been extensively discussed here in the past few weeks, and we thus found them of marginal value, it was his third point that may have some insight especially when presented to gold bugs, namely that "institutional investors appear to be returning to bitcoin perhaps seeing it as a better inflation hedge than gold." Here is what JPM believes has triggered the bitcoin recovery: the recent assurances by US policy makers that there is no intention to follow China’s steps towards banning the usage or mining of cryptocurrencies; the recent rise of the Lightning Network and 2nd layer payments solutions helped by El Salvador’s bitcoin adoption. According to President Bukele 2.7m Salvadorians had onboarded by early October the Chivo wallet which uses the Lightning Network. We have to admit we are skeptical of this second explanation; and the reemergence of inflation concerns among investors has renewed interest in the usage of bitcoin as an inflation hedge. Bitcoin’s allure as an inflation hedge has perhaps been strengthened by the failure of gold to respond in recent weeks to heightened concerns over inflation, behaving more as a real rate proxy rather than inflation hedge. The last point is notable, especially since we have frequently noted the growing price divergence between actual gold and its digital counterpart, which while not only providing a credible diversification tool to risk assets (compared the return of bitcoin to any other asset class YTD) has also shown a strong correlation with soaring inflation expectations in recent months, unlike gold which is sharply lower for the year. In the chart below, JPMorgan shows "tentative signs that the previous shift away from gold into bitcoin seen during most of Q4 2020 and the beginning of 2021 has started re-emerging in recent weeks." If JPM is correct (this time) and if indeed bitcoin is emerging as not only an accepted inflation hedge - certainly better than gold - but as an asset JPM will push to its institutional clients, especially those sporting a balanced, 60/40 portfolio, the potential inflows into bitcoin and cryptos in general would be remarkable if even a small portion of the global 60/40 portfolio is reallocated toward the digital currency, an outcome One River's CIO Eric Peters has been predicting for a long time. Tyler Durden Thu, 10/07/2021 - 17:50.....»»

A surge in bitcoin prices that took it well above $8,000 appears to be coming to a halt, as the world’s No.1 crypto asset has faced sudden and sharp selling pressure within the past 24 hours......»»

Scarcity Is Not Enough By Marcel Kasumovich, Deputy CIO of Coinbase Asset Management “We are not dependent on the ideas of a single person, but on the combined wisdom of thousands of people who are all thinking of the same problem, each doing their little bit to add to the great structure of knowledge that is gradually being erected.” Ernest Rutherford is recognized as the father of nuclear physics, and also for his appreciation that his contributions would be invisible over time if done right – others building on them would shine. Perhaps this is the point of Satoshi Nakamoto’s anonymity. He doesn’t matter. For bitcoin and crypto asset technologies to work requires widespread adoption from technologists to regulators and users. We are all Satoshi if bitcoin rises to reach its full potential. Could the creators be bad operators? Yes, and transparency is the solution. Bitcoin started with a bit more than 1,000 lines of code and an open architecture for all to see. And it works, with nobody in charge.  3,847. Those are the number of consecutive days the bitcoin network has operated without interruption. It covers an eventful decade – a global recession, a collapse in commodity markets, a freezing of the US repo market, a global pandemic, the fastest US monetary tightening in four decades, country bans of bitcoin mining, and the crypto Great Depression. Over $100 trillion dollars have settled on the bitcoin protocol over its lifetime. Remarkable.  It’s also the type of data that earns bitcoin the reputation as the “gold standard” of crypto asset markets. Energy is a connective tissue between gold and bitcoin. Machines and energy are needed to produce gold. Devaluation of a currency that elevates the cost of production would be captured by the local price of gold. When central banks anchored monetary policy to gold, they were anchored to those real resource constraints.  The parallels to bitcoin mining – computers and power – are self-evident. Bitcoin’s nominal anchor, like gold, are real resources dominated by energy. Now, investors are keen to see whether the parallels of bitcoin to gold extend to the financial world. After all, the introduction of the gold exchange traded product (ETF) was coincident with a decade-long bullish trend. Even if just a coincidence, what’s clear is that the “bitcoin standard” has institutional engagement.  But there is one major difference – scarcity. When the price of gold is high relative to its cost of production, there is an incentive to hunt for new gold reserves to mine. Supply rises. It’s a law of any market. Bitcoin has no supply response. When profits are high, more computers enter the network, and the bitcoin algorithm makes mining more difficult. The energy cost of bitcoin rises, and profits fall to push weakest miners out of the network.  And difficulty has surged. It’s a sign of maturity. Bitcoin mining difficulty is up nearly 60% this year and is more than double from the 2022 highs in the price of bitcoin. The secular rise in bitcoin mining difficulty means the market is becoming more efficient, more institutional than previous cycles. Part of the surge in mining difficulty is computers entering the market in anticipation of “the halving,” collecting rewards before they are reduced by 50% next year.  Bitcoin inflation is cut by half every four years or so. There will only ever be 21 million in bitcoin supply, and 92% is already in circulation. April 16, 2024 is the approximate date of the next bitcoin halving, which will reduce the bitcoin inflation rate to less than 1%. Bitcoin miners and investors are excited by the historical precedent – the price of bitcoin rose 25% on average starting from two months before past halvings and 60% three months after the event.  Not bad. But this is only the fourth cycle – it’s a small sample. Figure 1 illustrates halving cycles for bitcoin and her “silver equivalent”, litecoin. The data are a visual reminder that scarcity isn’t enough to make prices rise. Litecoin enjoyed a sharp price spike before its most recent halving on August 2, 2023, then fizzled out. Scarcity without being useful is pointless. I produce plenty of music that is scarce…and valueless. There needs to be demand. Where’s the demand for bitcoin? The most natural is as a payment rail. The numbers are staggering. The top 100 bitcoin transactions in the past 24 hours sum to nearly $10 billion at an average cost of less than 2 basis points. Spectacular technology. What’s built on top of the bitcoin protocol will define its user experience, like the Lightning Network that allows for virtually costless micro transactions. But similar to gold, its store of value could detract it from its utility.  Gold is a remarkable conductor of electricity – it’s not afraid of oxygen, unlike copper. But gold’s price has largely destroyed its industrial use-case. Could bitcoin see the same fate? Long-term holders of bitcoin are at record highs – reluctant sellers for all of the right reasons. But how can bitcoin become ubiquitous when the top 100 of owners control 15% of its value? It can’t. But it can play the role of gold in the crypto ecosystem – the standing benchmark. And that’s the top of the heap in crypto asset markets. Halving or not.  Tyler Durden Sun, 09/24/2023 - 22:35.....»»

"This Week Will Be Bumpy": S&P Futures Slide, Europe & Asia Slump With Brent At $95 Ahead Of Central Bank Barrage US equity futures were flat for much of the session before taking leg lower into the red with Treasury yields ticking higher, the USD flat, oil near $95, highlighting inflationary pressures just as policymakers prepare for interest-rate meetings, and bitcoin is surging as traders start pricing in the coming easing tidal wave. As of 7:45am, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures were down -0.2%. In commodities, WTI and ags are the best performers with base metals and natgas the biggest laggards. Stocks in Europe and Asia dropped sharply, mirroring the decline that took the S&P 500 down more than 1% last Friday. This week is a filled with multiple central bank decisions, including the Fed. JPM's market intel desk writes that with BBG reporting options markets are betting on faster than expected rate cuts in 2024; "let’s see the update from the DOTS" says JPM's Andrew Tyler. This week, the UAW strike may dominate headlines with about 10% of the 150k person union on strike, and the Biden admin may get involved. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown looms after Sep 30, currently a bi-partisan deal in the House has yet to materialize. In premarket trading, mega cap Tech names are mostly in the green. Apple shares rise as much as 0.5% with analysts positive on the tech company’s pre-orders for the latest iPhone 15, saying data so far is surpassing expectations and could bode well for the shares if momentum is sustained. Societe Generale plunged as much as 11% after cutting profitability targets. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Alteryx shares jump 5.3% after the computer-software company was upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, which said the current valuation undervalues its growth and profit potential. Micron shares gained 2.5% after the chipmaker was raised to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank, with the broker noting that prices for DRAM chips have started to improve faster than expected. Disney and Warner Bros Discovery (WBD US) rise after the two media and entertainment companies were initiated with outperform recommendations at Raymond James, which noted compelling cash-flow growth expectations. Paramount Global was rated new market perform. L3Harris Technologies shares rose 1.8% after the defense company was upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Wells Fargo, which said the risk-reward has become more balanced. A three-week rally in oil prices has pushed benchmark Brent higher by 11%, and back to the average price at which Joe Biden drained almost 200 million barrels from the SPR, complicating the task of central bankers around the world in their fight against inflation. The Federal Reserve’s policy announcement on Wednesday will be followed by those from the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan a day later. “This week will be bumpy,” said Francois Rimeu, a fund manager at La Francaise Asset Management in Paris. “Pretty tough messages are expected from central bankers.” Monday’s subdued mood in stock markets matched the relentless bearish tone of a note from Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who said investors have turned more cautious (which is amusing since he has been talling them to short the S&P since 3900 last December). “The majority of investors we’ve spoken with are in the ‘pushed out’ camp and are of the view that 2024 is now looking like a more challenging year for risk assets relative to 2023,” Wilson wrote in a note. Other disagree: according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, a resilient US economy will prompt the Fed to pencil in one more interest-rate hike this year and stay at the peak level next year for longer than previously expected, “A number of Fed speakers have taken a slightly more cautious tone recently, mentioning that risks have become more two-sided and talking of the ability to ‘proceed carefully,’” said Credit Agricole strategists led by Jean-François Paren. “That said, it is far too early to declare victory, and the Fed will want to keep the possibility of further tightening on the table.” European stocks slumped; the Stoxx 600 is down 0.6%, led by declines in the construction and consumer product sectors. Major European markets are all lower with France the biggest laggard. UK rents increases 12% YoY in Aug, the largest increase on record. In EMEA, 3M Momentum is leading, Cyclicals are lagging; Value over Growth. UKX -0.2%, SX5E -0.7%, SXXP -0.5%, DAX -0.5%. Here are the most notable movers: Pendragon shares rise as much as 32% after the new and used car seller agreed to sell its UK motor and leasing business to Lithia Motors Inc. and form a strategic partnership with the US company in a deal that promises a cash dividend of about £240 million to its shareholders. PGS shares rise as much as 16% after the Norwegian geophysical data company’s sector peer TGS agreed to an all-share merger. TGS shares slide as much as 7%, with DNB analysts seeing the deal as less favorable to its shareholders. Cofina shares gain as much as 13% after the Portuguese company said on Friday night that it’s analyzing the two offers it received for its Cofina Media unit; no decision has been taken about whether it will sell Cofina Media or not. Drax shares rise as much as 5.3%, rebounding from a 10% drop on Friday that came after the UK’s National Audit Office said it will produce a report about the nation’s current biomass strategy and the fuel’s contribution to the UK’s net zero target. International Distributions Services shares gain as much as 5.2% after JPMorgan upgraded its recommendation on the the Royal Mail owner to overweight from neutral, citing an attractive entry point. Societe Generale shares drop as much as 7.9% after the lender announced a new strategic plan. KBW called the strategy “disappointing,” while Bloomberg Intelligence said it lacked major proposals to restructure its struggling investment banking division. S4 Capital shares tumble as much as 28% to a record low after the digital advertising agency reduced full-year guidance for a second time in two months. The company said its clients are cautious in spending due to fears of a recession, and its current client activity levels are weaker than expected. Jefferies and Peel Hunt cut price targets. Nordic Semiconductor shares slide as much as 16% after the chipmaker reduced quarterly revenue and margin forecasts, citing weak demand across its core markets and no signs of improvement amid an industry downturn. ALD LeasePlan shares slump as much as 15%, the most since March 2020, after the operational leasing and fleet management company that’s majority owned by Societe Generale announced a new strategic plan for 2023-2026. Lonza shares fall as much as 10.5%, the most since July, after the Swiss bioprocessing company announced the departure of CEO Pierre-Alain Ruffieux. The uncertainty will lead shares to underperform ahead of capital markets day next month, according to Morgan Stanley. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, with the tech sector leading the declines in a busy week for central bank decisions. A lack of positive developments from China also kept sentiment in check. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index dropped as much as 0.9%, dragged lower by information tech and financials. Among individual stocks, TSMC and Samsung Electronics contributed the most to the benchmark’s loss. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday, while the central bank there is due to meet later this week. Optimism spurred by nascent signs of stabilization in China’s economy has been offset by lingering concerns over the property crisis, with some distressed developers facing more debt payment deadlines. A gauge of Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong fell about 1%, while the onshore CSI 300 Index touched its lowest level this year before trading higher. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated at the open with the declines in Hong Kong led by tech and property stocks including Evergrande shares which slumped by more than 20% in early trade after some of its wealth management employees were detained by Chinese authorities. Conversely, the losses in the mainland were later reversed in the aftermath of the PBoC’s firm liquidity efforts and the previously unannounced meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US National Security Adviser Sullivan. Australia's ASX 200 was pressured with underperformance in tech and telecoms and with the handover of leadership at the RBA met with little fanfare. The Nikkei 225 remained closed as Japanese participants observed the Respect for the Aged Day holiday. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot was is down 0.1%. The Norwegian krone is the worst performer among the G-10’s, falling 0.6% versus the greenback. Spot gold rises 0.1%. In rates, treasuries drop, with US 10-year yields rising 1bps to 4.34%. Bunds and gilts are also lower; regional yields are higher in this heavy central bank week, which sees decisions from the Fed (pause), BOJ (no change but may hint at tightening) and BoE, which is expected to hike 25bps to 5.5%, ending the hiking cycle; The ECB warns on additional hikes, but market expects the CB to have already completed. In commodities, oil prices gained with US crude futures rising 0.6% to trade near $91.30.  On the outlook for oil, traders will be monitoring clues on prospects for global supply when Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman addresses an industry conference later Monday. Hedge funds last week boosted their bullish wagers on Brent and US crude to a 15-month high. Brent has gained 11% in three weeks. Looking at today's calendar, it's a slow start to the week, with the New York Fed Services Business index due, followed by the NAHB Housing Market Index, and the latest TIC data after the close. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,504.00 MXAP down 0.6% to 162.97 MXAPJ down 0.9% to 504.11 Nikkei up 1.1% to 33,533.09 Topix up 0.9% to 2,428.38 Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 17,930.55 Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,125.93 Sensex down 0.2% to 67,671.61 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 7,230.37 Kospi down 1.0% to 2,574.72 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 459.72 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.68% Euro little changed at $1.0658 Brent Futures up 0.3% to $94.17/bbl Brent Futures up 0.2% to $94.16/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,926.10 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 105.34 Top Overnight News Biden’s national security advisor secretly met with China’s foreign minister in Europe over the weekend, a “significant step” toward stabilizing relations between the two countries (the weekend discussion could pave the way for Biden and Xi to meet later this year on the sidelines of the APEC summit in November). NBC News China’s economy is showing some green shoots (the latest evidence being Aug retail sales and industrial production Thurs night), but FDI (foreign direct investment) remains a big problem (FDI slumped 5.1% YTD through Aug, a larger drop than the -4% YTD as of Jul). SCMP SoftBank is on the hunt for deals in artificial intelligence, including a potential investment in OpenAI, after the blockbuster listing of UK chip designer Arm bolstered Masayoshi Son’s multibillion-dollar war chest. FT Brent edged closer to $95 for the first time since November after a three-week run of gains. Growing supply tightness and eroding inventories suggest the rally may have further to run after hedge funds boosted bullish bets to a 15-month high last week. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman speaks at the World Petroleum Congress in Calgary later. BBG The US and Iran are set to complete an exchange of prisoners after months of negotiations, a breakthrough that Washington hopes will open the door to a de-escalation of tensions between the arch-foes. In a carefully sequenced process, five American-Iranian dual nationals will be released on Monday by the Islamic republic and flown to Qatar, while the US will also free five Iranians from American prisons. FT U.S. COVID infections are hovering near levels of the pandemic’s first peak in 2020, and approaching the Delta peak of late 2021, according to wastewater surveillance and modeling by forecasters. It’s yet another sign that while the official pandemic state may be over, the days of COVID are far from it. Fortune The restart of student-loan payments could divert up to $100 billion from Americans’ pockets over the coming year, leaving consumers squeezed and some of the nation’s largest retailers fearing a spending slowdown. WSJ Auto strike latest: The UAW's Shawn Fain rejected an offer of a 21% raise from Stellantis. "It's definitely a no-go," Fain told CBS. His comments signal the union and Detroit execs are still far apart. The union also rejected what Stellantis called a "compelling offer" that would protect jobs at an idled Jeep plant in Illinois. BBG TSLA has already won, regardless of how the UAW talks turn out – the company’s manufacturing lead is only widening vs. the legacy OEMs as the firm drives down the cost of building an EV. WSJ Utilities was among the most net sold sectors on the Goldman Prime Book last week, driven by long sales and to a much lesser extent short sales (~8 to 1). Last week’s net selling in US Utilities was the largest in 11 weeks and ranks in the 92nd percentile vs. the past five years. The US Utilities long/short ratio fell -4.9% on the week and now stands at 1.44, in the 12th percentile vs. the past year and in the 9th percentile vs. the past five years. GSPB A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks were mostly lower following last Friday’s declines on Wall St and with the region cautious in a holiday-thinned start to a busy week of central bank policy announcements. ASX 200 was pressured with underperformance in tech and telecoms and with the handover of leadership at the RBA met with little fanfare. Nikkei 225 remained closed as Japanese participants observed the Respect for the Aged Day holiday. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated at the open with the declines in Hong Kong led by tech and property stocks including Evergrande shares which slumped by more than 20% in early trade after some of its wealth management employees were detained by Chinese authorities. Conversely, the losses in the mainland were later reversed in the aftermath of the PBoC’s firm liquidity efforts and the previously unannounced meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US National Security Adviser Sullivan. Top Asian News US National Security Adviser Sullivan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Malta over the weekend in an unannounced meeting to maintain open lines of communication with the discussions said to be candid, substantive and constructive, while they discussed security issues, Russia’s war in Ukraine and cross-Taiwan-Strait issues, according to the White House. Furthermore, a US official said the US sees some limited signs China may re-establish military communications with the US and the US raised concerns about Chinese assistance to Russia, as well as expressed concerns about China crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait, according to Reuters. China’s Foreign Ministry said following the meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang and White House’s Sullivan that both sides agreed to continue to maintain high-level exchanges and hold consultations on Asia-Pacific affairs, maritime affairs and foreign policy, while it added that the Taiwan issue is the first insurmountable line on Sino-US relations, according to Reuters. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a meeting with Malta's Foreign Minister that the two sides will work together to promote China-EU cooperation and China hopes Malta would continue to play a positive role in the development of China-EU relations. Furthermore, he said China-EU cooperation outweighs differences and China has consistently supported the EU's strategic independence and European integration, according to Reuters. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Russia from September 18th-21st for the China-Russia strategic security consultations. IMF’s Georgieva said China’s ageing population and declining productivity are suppressing growth and Beijing should work to boost domestic consumption, while she urged China to address the weakness in the real estate sector and build-up of local government debt. Furthermore, she stated the IMF must carefully monitor the outflow of investments from China and said that some sectors still offer opportunities, according to Reuters. German Foreign Minister Baerbock said Europe must reduce its dependence on China and the EU should de-risk from China but not decouple, according to Bloomberg. European bourses are in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%, with participants cautious ahead of a Central Bank frenzy. Sectors have Health Care at the bottom weighed on by Lonza while pressure on LVMH's Champagne brands has put Consumer Products & Services on the backfoot. Stateside, futures are essentially unchanged on the session after Friday's pressure, ES +0.1%, with the US docket light until Wednesday's FOMC. JP Morgan on EZ Equity Strategy: stays cautious on the region and expects defensive sectors to trade better into year-end. Top European News UK opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer pledged to seek a major rewrite of the Brexit deal in 2025 if the party wins the next general election, according to FT. ECB’s Holzmann said that they definitely cannot say this was the final hike but the likelihood of another hike is not that big and noted that inflation risks haven’t receded lately. Furthermore, he stated that there is a risk more tightening will be needed and it wasn’t an easy decision at the last meeting where they had to weigh all arguments very carefully in order to come to an agreement. ECB’s Muller sees a good case that no further rate hikes are needed and noted a strong case to quicken the balance sheet roll-off, while he added that the ECB should discuss an earlier end of PEPP reinvestment. ECB’s Stournaras said governments must do their part in reining in consumer prices after borrowing costs reached a level that could be their peak, while he stated that monetary policy has done its part to fight inflation and it is up to fiscal policy to take off some of the heat, according to Bloomberg. ECB's Kazimir said he wishes the September rate hike was the last but cannot rule out further rate increases; only the March forecast can confirm that ECB is heading towards inflation goal; end of rate hikes to open debate on how to adjust PEPP and APP. Once clear that no more rate hikes are needed, debate should start on speeding up QT. Premature to place bets on the first-rate cut. ECB's de Guindos says parts of underlying inflation are moderating. Bundesbank Monthly Report (September): expects the German economy to shrink in Q3 on weak industry and muted private consumption. Moody’s raised Greece’s sovereign rating by two notches from Ba3; Outlook Stable from BA1; Outlook Positive and S&P affirmed Spain at A; Outlook Stable, while Fitch affirmed Germany at AAA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Malta at A+; Outlook Stable. FX DXY sits on a 105.000 handle within tight range ahead of NAHB on a quiet agenda before this week's Central Bank-fest. Kiwi and Aussie marginally outperform against Greenback above 0.5900 and 0.6400 respectively in the absence of anything specific. Other majors relatively contained vs Buck as Franc, Yen, Pound, Loonie and Euro keep afloat of 0.9000, 148.00, 1.2350, 1.3550 and 1.0650. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1736 vs exp. 7.2707 (prev. 7.1786) Czech Central Bank Governor Michl said let’s forget about near-term rate cuts and that there will be no rate cuts in September and October, while they expect higher rates in the longer term and want to be a hawkish central bank. Furthermore, Michl said core inflation does not allow a rate cut now and they will wait for data in November and January, according to Reuters. Fixed Income Debt futures remain depressed and defensive awaiting inflation data, a swathe of September policy meetings and flash PMIs. Bunds and Gilts teeter mostly above 130.00 and 95.00 between 130.24-129.97 and 95.23-94.96 respective parameters. T-note hovers within 109-09/16 range pre-NAHB. Commodities WTI October and Brent November futures are firmer intraday, although off best levels with support emanating from Central Bank expectation, demand side support via China and ongoing Saudi/Russia curbs. WTI trades around USD 91.30/bbl and towards the top end of a 90.86-91.70/bbl parameter thus far, while its Brent counterpart oscillates around USD 94.30/bbl in a USD 93.93-94.78/bbl band. TTF is softer intraday despite Offshore Alliance members starting another 24-hour stoppage while Norway's Troll field has begun to increase output after its prolonged shutdown. Spot gold is rangebound between the 50- and 200-DMAs while base metals are more mixed given the cautious tone. Australia’s Offshore Alliance union said members began another 24-hour stoppage on Sunday at Chevron’s (CVX) Australian LNG facilities. French PM Borne said the government plans to permit gas stations to sell fuel at a loss for a limited period of a few months to help contain inflation. Troll field in Norway to start ramping up output on Monday following the prolonged shutdown, according to Bloomberg's Stapczynski. Kuwait KNPC says power was cut at the Al Ahmadi (25k BPD) and Abdallah (270k BPD) refineries last night but work continues; working towards full production capacity, exports remain unaffected, according to a KNPC statement. Kazakhstan raised its daily oil and gas condensate production by 10% on Sunday from Saturday to 250.4k tons following the completion of maintenance at the Karachagnak and Tengiz fields. China August refined copper output +16.4% Y/Y to 1.12mln metric tons; Lead output +5.5% Y/Y to 619k tons, according to the stats bureau. Ukraine intends to sue Hungary, Poland and Slovakia due to their refusal to drop a ban on Ukrainian agricultural products, via Politico. Geopolitics Ukraine’s general in command of ground forces announced that Ukrainian forces recaptured the eastern village of Klishchiivka on the southern flank of Bakhmut, according to a Telegram post cited by Reuters. North Korean leader Kim met with Russian Defence Minister Shoigu in Vladivostok who showed Kim Russia’s hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and three nuclear-capable strategic aircraft, according to Russian media. IAEA said Tehran took a disproportionate and unprecedented measure in barring a third of IAEA’s most experienced inspectors in Iran and noted that these inspectors are among the most experienced energy experts with unique knowledge of enrichment technology, according to Reuters. Israel PM Netanyahu said Iran is violating all its commitments to the international community after Tehran moved to ban multiple inspectors, according to Reuters. Saudi Arabia reportedly informed the Biden admin of its decision to halt all discussions of normalising ties with Israel on Sunday, citing Israeli PM Netanyahu's "extremist" government, according to unconfirmed reports cited by The Jerusalem Post. Taiwan's Defence Ministry said during the past 24 hours, 40 Chinese air force planes crossed Taiwan's air defence zone and said China's continuous military harassment can easily lead to a sharp increase in tensions and worsen regional security, while it urged Beijing authorities to immediately stop destructive actions, according to Reuters. Furthermore, AFP reported that Taiwan said it detected 103 Chinese warplanes around the island. Turkish President Erdogan said Turkey could part ways with the EU if necessary following a report which criticised Turkey’s democratic shortcomings, according to Bloomberg. Social media reports, citing Bulgarian radio, state that an unidentified drone with an 82mm mortar mine has crashed on the coast of Bulgaria (NATO member). US Event Calendar 08:30: Sept. New York Fed Services Business, prior 0.6 10:00: Sept. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 49, prior 50 16:00: July Total Net TIC Flows, prior $147.8b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The FOMC on Wednesday will highlight a busy week for markets with central banks at the fore. Outside of the Fed, the BoE (Thursday), and the BoJ (Friday) are the other main events on this front. Central banks in Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Turkiye (all Thursday) all have policy meetings too. The CPI inflation data for both the UK (Wednesday) and Japan (Friday) will also be out this week. The global flash PMIs due Friday will be another big focus. The latest manufacturing PMI for Germany printed at 39.1 (43.5 in the Eurozone), much lower than the still soft 47.9 in the US and 49.6 in Japan. Momentum in the services gauge, especially in the US (50.5) where it’s only just above 50, will also be in focus after stronger comparable prints in other US surveys. Also in the US we have the monthly housing week data dump even if it will be tough to learn something new. US housing affordability is around the worst on record for buyers, and activity is at around 30 year low, but for the vast majority of existing homeowners there is no stress. We have today's NAHB homebuilder index (DB forecast 50 vs. 50 previously), Tuesday's housing starts (1.478mn vs 1.452mn) and building permits (1.460mn vs. 1.443mn) and Thursday's existing home sales (4.25mn vs. 4.07mn). Elsewhere in the US, Thursday's Philadelphia Fed survey (-5.0 vs. +12.0) will be of some interest. Elsewhere the UAW autoworkers strike that started on Friday will gain more macro attention the longer it lasts. Some may say this is an idiosyncratic risk to the economy but with inflation having been high and corporate profits coming back, this sort of thing is a genuine consequence of the macro environment. Anyway, let's dive into a brief FOMC preview. A fuller one from our economists can be found here. You'd be hard pressed to find someone who thinks they'll hike this week but our expectation is that they keep the door open for another hike later this year which the dot plot will continue to reflect. Our economists believe other parts of the SEP are likely to undergo meaningful revisions, particularly for 2023. Stronger growth (2023 could double to 2%, 2024 could increase around 25bps to 1.3%) and lower unemployment should counterbalance softer inflation (2023 revised down but core forecasts for 2024 likely to be unchanged). So the meeting is likely to see a confident pause but one where further tightening is seen as the risk. After the Fed, the focus will shift to the BoE on Thursday. Our UK economist previews the meeting here and expects another +25bps hike that would take the Bank Rate to 5.5% and sees another, potentially final, hike in November. The market were pricing in around a 70% chance of a hike at the close on Friday. Perhaps a swing factor on the outlook could be the UK CPI the day before where headline is expected to rise from 6.8% to 7.2% due to energy costs but core is expected to dip 0.1pp to 6.8%. A big fall in October's headline release should occur alongside a big fall in energy bills as bad YoY comps drop out. Retail sales on Friday completes a busy week for the UK. Retail sales will also be due on Thursday in France. Highlights in Germany include the PPI out on Wednesday. The BoJ will wrap up the busy week on Friday and a preview from our Chief Japan economist is available here. He expects the central bank to stick to its current policy stance but revise the MPM statement to point to policy normalisation. Further out, our economist sees the YCC and negative interest rate policy ending at the October and January meetings, respectively. Japan's latest nationwide CPI will also be out that day. Our Chief Japan economist sees the headline gauge at 2.9% YoY (+3.3% in July), core inflation excluding fresh food at 2.9% (+3.1%), and core-core inflation excluding fresh food and energy (+4.3%). Asian equity markets are generally tracking down to Friday's DM losses, especially in the tech sector but S&P 500 (+0.18%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.12%) futures have rebounded a little. The Hang Seng (-1.03%) is the biggest underperformer followed by the KOSPI (-0.87%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.60%). Elsewhere, mainland Chinese stocks are trading up with the CSI (+0.39%) slightly higher while the Shanghai Composite (+0.03%) is just above the flatline. Meanwhile, markets in Japan are closed for a holiday with cash treasuries closed. In energy markets, oil prices are extending gains with Brent crude (+0.42%) inching towards $95/bbl amid Russian and Saudi Arabian production cuts. Now, looking back on last week. On Friday, we had the preliminary results of the University of Michigan’s September survey of consumer sentiment. The headline missed expectations, falling to 67.7 (vs 69.0 expected). On the other hand, the inflation expectations section of the survey saw one-year inflation expectations hit their lowest level since 2021 after falling from 3.5% to 3.1% (vs 3.5% expected). Inflation expectations at the long-run horizon, 5 to 10 years, also surprised to the downside, falling from 3.0% to 2.7% (vs 3.0% expected). So more encouragement that disinflation is being felt by US consumers which is surprising for the last month given the notably higher gas prices of late. The first release is often revised so we will see. At face value though this will be very good news for the Fed. With a week of former US data though, markets moved to price in a higher for longer Fed funds rate. The rate priced for December 2024 rose +10.8bps last week, and +4.2bps on Friday. Off the back of this, US 10yr Treasury yields gained +4.5bps on Friday, and +6.7bps in weekly terms. Similarly, 2yr yields rose +4.2bps week-on-week (and +2.1bps on Friday). In Europe, on Friday, the day after the ECB’s 25bps hike to 4.00%, comments by the ECB’s Muller that higher inflation in the Eurozone could “yet warrant another hike” saw 10yr bund yields rise +8.2bps to 2.67%. So the hawks leaving the door open to another hike. This was followed by comments from President Lagarde that interest rate cuts were not yet on the table for policymakers. The move on Friday erased the fall in 10yr yields that had occurred earlier in the week, as yields rose +6.5bps to 2.67%, their highest weekly close since the first week of March. Of note, German 30yr yields gained +9.0bps on Friday (and +8.2bps week-on-week) to 2.81%, their highest level since 2011. Turning back to the US, equities pared back their weekly advance as tech giants like Amazon and Nvidia fell on Friday. The S&P 500 slipped -1.22%, erasing its earlier weekly gains (-0.16%). The decline was led by technology stocks, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ falling -1.56% on Friday (-0.39% on the week). Within the technology sector, semiconductors had a more than lacklustre day, down -3.01% after a report that the largest chip manufacturer, TSMC, had requested its major supplier to delay shipments of high-end equipment. Nvidia fell -3.69% on Friday (-3.67% week-on-week), while Amazon declined -2.99% on Friday (though still up +1.56% in weekly terms). Things were sunnier in European equities. The STOXX 600 gained +0.23% on Friday, wrapping the week up with gains of +1.60%, its best weekly performance since mid-July. The FTSE 100 also outperformed, up +3.12% over the week (and +0.50% on Friday) in its strongest weekly run since January. Finally, in commodities, oil had a formidable run last week, hitting a new 10-month high. This came as supply continues to tighten following production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia alongside OPEC’s warning last week that the oil market would likely be in large deficit by the end of 2023. WTI crude futures were up +3.73% week-on-week (and +0.68% on Friday), breaking through the $90/bbl to level to finish at $90.77/bbl, ticking off a third consecutive week of gains. Brent similarly gained on the week, up +3.62% (and +0.25% on Friday) to $93.93/bbl. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/18/2023 - 08:12.....»»

Despite sluggish trading activity, Bitcoin is trading handily higher in 2023, outdoing most major assets.  Bitcoin (BTC) trading volumes on all exchanges tumbled to a four-year low on August 12, underscoring the ongoing slowdown in the market and the lack of price catalysts. Still, despite sluggish trading activity, BTC is trading 55% higher in 2023, outdoing most major assets. Bitcoin Trading Volume Down 94% from March Highs Although it has staged an impressive comeback from its 2022 lows this year, Bitcoin is witnessing a significant dip in trading volume amid rising market uncertainty. Notably, the total volume of BTC held on all spot and derivative exchanges declined earlier in the month to the lowest level since 2018, on-chain data showed on Tuesday. To be more specific, as of August 26, Bitcoin trading volume on all crypto exchanges stood at 129,307, marking a slight recovery after sliding to 112,317 – the lowest since November 10, 2018. Currently, BTC trading volume is roughly 94% short of the 3.5 million high reached in March. “Trading volumes decrease in bear markets as retail investors leave. This happened during 2022 on most exchanges. As we progress further into a bull market, the trading volume may continue to pick up.” – CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno told CNBC. SEC to Announce Decision on Several Spot Bitcoin ETF Applications The dip in trading volumes comes amid a tranquil summer for crypto investors, although the seasonal change only accounts for a portion of diminished market activity. Other factors, such as the US regulatory crackdown on the industry, the end of the banking crisis, and macroeconomic challenges, have added to the uncertainty, giving traders and market makers no strong reason to jump back in. Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market received a significant boost in mid-June when BlackRock, along with other major traditional finance (TradFi) institutions on Wall Street, filed applications to launch spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The decision on one of those applications, filed by Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, has been delayed by the SEC earlier this month. The securities regulator is expected to announce its decision on several other spot Bitcoin ETF applications this week before Labor Day weekend. However, analysts and industry participants anticipate the SEC postponing the ruling again. Meanwhile, despite its sharp drop in trading volumes, Bitcoin’s price remains up by more than 55% in 2023, outperforming other major cryptocurrencies such as ETH, XRP, BNB, and ADA. This article originally appeared on The Tokenist Sponsored: Tips for Investing A financial advisor can help you understand the advantages and disadvantages of investment properties. Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn’t have to be hard. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to three financial advisors who serve your area, and you can interview your advisor matches at no cost to decide which one is right for you. If you’re ready to find an advisor who can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now. Investing in real estate can diversify your portfolio. But expanding your horizons may add additional costs. If you’re an investor looking to minimize expenses, consider checking out online brokerages. They often offer low investment fees, helping you maximize your profit......»»

Jack Dorsey is famous for his unusual life of luxury. He's friends with Elon Musk and stepped down as Twitter CEO in 2021 but continues to lead Block. Jack Dorsey has led an interesting life.Joe Raedle/Getty Images Jack Dorsey cofounded Twitter in 2006 and the company made him a billionaire. He stepped down as Twitter CEO in 2021 and supported Elon Musk's takeover of the company.  Dorsey runs the financial services company Block and is famous for his unusual life of luxury. From his friendship with Elon Musk to quashing rumors about sending his beard hair to rapper Azealia Banks, Twitter founder Jack Dorsey leads an interesting life.Dorsey has had a turbulent career in Silicon Valley. After cofounding Twitter on March 21, 2006, he was booted as the company's CEO two years later, but returned in 2015 having set up his second company, Square — which he rebranded as Block in 2021.He led Twitter through the techlash that has engulfed social media companies, testifying before Congress multiple times and later stepping down as CEO of Twitter in 2021, as well as eventually encouraging Musk's Twitter acquisition the following year. Dorsey continues to lead Block, where in April 2022 he changed his title from "CEO" to "Block Head."The tech entrepreneur has provoked his fair share of controversy and criticism over the years and like some other billionaires, he owns a stunning house, dates models, and drives fast cars.Here's what we know about Dorsey's career rise and life outside of work.Rebecca Borison, Madeline Stone, Katie Canales, Bethany Biron, and Isobel Asher Hamilton contributed reporting to an earlier version of this story.Dorsey began programming while attending Bishop DuBourg High School in St. Louis.The Twitter cofounder was coding in high school.VineAt age 15, Dorsey wrote dispatch software that is still used by some taxi companies, according to a biography on Dorsey. When he wasn't checking out specialty electronics stores or running a fantasy football league for his friends, Dorsey frequently attended punk-rock concerts.Jack Dorsey used to have a punk rock hair style.@jackThese days Dorsey doesn't favour the spiky hairdo. Like many of his fellow tech billionaires, Dorsey never graduated college.Jack Dorsey is one of many tech founders to drop out of college.edyson / FlickrHe briefly attended the Missouri University of Science and Technology and transferred to New York University where he before calling it quits in 1999 one semester before graduation to focus on his idea for Twitter, according to the biography. In 2000, Dorsey built a simple prototype that let him update his friends on his life via BlackBerry and email messaging.Jack Dorsey built an early version of his idea for Twitter in 2000.joi / FlickrNobody else really seemed interested, so he put away the idea for a bit, according to a Stanford Blog. About two years later he became a licensed masseur.Getty Images/Bill PuglianoHe got his license in about 2002, before exploding onto the tech scene, the Journal reported. He got a job at a podcasting company called Odeo, where he met his future Twitter cofounders.Jack Dorsey with his Twitter cofounders.TwitterOdeo went out of business in 2006, so Dorsey returned to his messaging idea, and Twitter was born.On March 21, 2006, Dorsey posted the first tweet.Jack Dorsey's sent the first tweet in 2006.Twitter/@jackDorsey kept his Twitter handle simple, "@jack." He hasn't changed it since.Dorsey and his cofounders, Evan Williams and Biz Stone, bought the Twitter domain name for roughly $7,000.Dorsey became CEO of the company when they launched it.Khalid Mohammed / AP ImagesDorsey took out his nose ring to look the part of a CEO. He was 30 years old.A year later, Dorsey was already less hands-on at Twitter.Dorsey took a step back at Twitter shortly after it was launched.Wikimedia CommonsBy 2008, Williams had taken over as CEO, and Dorsey transitioned to chairman of Twitter's board.Dorsey immediately got started on new projects. He invested in Foursquare and launched a payments startup called Square that lets small-business owners accept credit card payments through a smartphone attachment. In 2011, Dorsey got the chance to interview US President Barack Obama in the first Twitter Town Hall.Twitter had its first Town Hall with President Barack Obama in 2011.ReutersDorsey had to remind Obama to keep his replies under 140 characters, Twitter's limit at the time. Twitter went public in November 2013, and within hours Dorsey was a billionaire.Twitter made Dorsey a billionaire.APIn 2014 Forbes pegged Dorsey's net worth at $2.2 billion and it has spiked as high as $12.5 billion in 2021.It was revealed in a 2019 filing that Dorsey earned just $1.40 for his job as Twitter CEO the previous year.The Twitter cofounder didn't take a large salary even when he was CEO.David Becker / GettyThe $1.40 salary actually represented a pay rise for Dorsey, who in previous years had refused any payment at all.He's far from the only Silicon Valley mogul to have taken a measly salary – Mark Zuckerberg makes $1 a year as CEO of Facebook. With his newfound wealth, he bought a BMW 3 Series, but reportedly didn't drive it often.Jack Dorsey owned a BMW Series 3 at one point.Alex Davies / Business Insider"Now he's able to say, like, 'The BMW is the only car I drive, because it's the best automotive engineering on the planet,' or whatever," Twitter cofounder Biz Stone told The New Yorker in 2013. He also reportedly paid $9.9 million for this seaside house on El Camino Del Mar in the exclusive Seacliff neighborhood of San Francisco.Jack Dorsey shelled out millions of dollars for a house in San Francisco.The Real Estalker via Sotheby'sThe house has a view of the Golden Gate Bridge, which Dorsey views as a marvel of design. Jack Dorsey told Kara Swisher in 2018 that Elon Musk is his favorite Twitter user.Elon Musk was a prolific tweeter, even before he bought the company.PewDiePie/YouTubeDorsey said Musk's tweets are, "focused on solving existential problems and sharing his thinking openly."He added that he enjoys all the "ups and downs" that come with Musk's sometimes unpredictable use of the site. Musk himself replied, tweeting his thanks and "Twitter rocks!" followed by a string of random emojis.Both Musk and Dorsey are crypto enthusiasts, and appear to have a friendship of sorts. Dorsey has also engaged with other tech entrepreneurs like Mark Zuckerberg who once served him a goat that the Facebook cofounder had killed himself.Mark Zuckerberg served Jack Dorsey goat.Gene KimDorsey told Rolling Stone about the meal, which took place in 2011. Dorsey said the goat was served cold, and that he personally stuck to salad. Dorsey's eating habits have raised eyebrows over the years.Jack Dorsey says he fasts.Phillip Faraone/Getty Images for WIRED25In 2019, Dorsey appeared on a podcast run by a health guru who previously said that vaccines caused autism. Dorsey said during his interview that he eats one meal a day and fasts all weekend. He said the first time he tried fasting it made him feel like he was hallucinating."It was a weird state to be in. But as I did it the next two times, it just became so apparent to me how much of our days are centered around meals and how — the experience I had was when I was fasting for much longer, how time really slowed down," he said.The comments drew fierce criticism from many who said Dorsey was normalizing eating disorders.In a later interview with Wired, Dorsey said he eats seven meals a week, "just dinner." In the early days of Twitter, Dorsey aspired to be a fashion designer.Jack Dorsey's style has changed over the years.Cindy Ord / Getty Images, Franck MichelDorsey would regularly don leather jackets and slim suits by Prada and Hermès, as well as Dior Homme reverse-collar dress shirts, a sort of stylish take on the popped collar.More recently he favors edgier outfits, including the classic black turtleneck favored by Silicon Valley luminaries like Steve Jobs. He also re-introduced the nose-ring and grew a beard in more recent years.Jack Dorsey has a long beard and nose ring.GettyDorsey seems to care less about looking the part of a traditional executive these days.Singer Azealia Banks claimed to have been sent clippings of Dorsey's beard hair to fashion into a protective amulet, although Dorsey denied this happened.Azealia Banks claims Jack Dorsey sent her clippings from his beard.GettyIn 2016, Banks posted on her now-deleted Twitter account that Dorsey sent her his hair, "in an envelope." Dorsey later told the Huffington Post that the incident never happened. Dorsey has faced his share of controversy over the years. In 2018, a tweet about his vacation in Myanmar provoked an outcry.Jack Dorsey tweeted about his vacation in Myanmar.Shutterstock/Martin M303Dorsey tweeted glowingly about a vacation he took to Myanmar for his birthday in December 2018. "If you're willing to travel a bit, go to Myanmar," he said.This came at the height of the Rohingya crisis, and Dorsey was attacked for his blithe promotion of the country — especially since social media platforms were accused of having been complicit in fuelling hatred towards the Rohingya. Dorsey has said he doesn't care about "looking bad."Jack Dorsey has said he doesn't care how people perceive him.ReutersIn a bizarre Huffington Post interview in 2019, Dorsey was asked whether Donald Trump — an avid tweeter — could be removed from the platform if he called on his followers to murder a journalist. Dorsey gave a vague answer which drew sharp criticism.Following the interview's publication, Dorsey said he doesn't care about "looking bad.""I care about being open about how we're thinking and about what we see," he added.In September 2018, Jack Dorsey was grilled by lawmakers alongside Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg.Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg and Jack Dorsey were grilled in a Senate Intelligence Committee.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesDorsey and Sandberg were asked about election interference on Twitter and Facebook as well as alleged anti-conservative bias in social media companies at the event.During the hearing, Dorsey shared a snapshot of his spiking heart rate on Twitter. He was in the hot seat for several hours and he showed his heart rate peaked at 109 beats per minute. Dorsey testified before Congress once again on October 28, 2020.Jack Dorsey tuned into the hearing with the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation.U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation/Handout via REUTERSDorsey appeared via videoconference at the Senate hearing on Section 230, a part of US law that protects internet companies from legal liability for user-generated content, as well as giving them broad authority to decide how to moderate their own platforms.In prepared testimony ahead of the hearing, Dorsey said stripping back Section 230 would "collapse how we communicate on the Internet," and suggested ways for tech companies to make their moderation processes more transparent.And during the hearing, Dorsey once again faced accusations of anti-conservative bias.The accusations from Republican lawmakers focused on the way Twitter enforces its policies, particularly the way it has labelled tweets from President Trump compared to other world leaders.Dorsey took the brunt of questions from lawmakers, even though he appeared alongside Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Google CEO Sundar Pichai.He appeared in another hearing a few weeks later with Zuckerberg, facing questions from Republicans who were displeased with how the platforms had dealt with then-President Donald Trump's social media accounts.  When he's not in Washington, Dorsey regularly hops in and out of ice baths and saunas.This is not Dorsey's sauna, but he enjoys regular saunas and ice baths.ShutterstockDorsey said in the "Tales of the Crypt" podcast that he started using ice baths and saunas in the evenings around 2016.He will alternately sit in his barrel sauna for 15 minutes and then switch to an ice bath for three. He repeats this routine three times, before finishing it off with a one-minute ice bath.He also likes to take an icy dip in the mornings to wake him up. Dorsey's dating life has sparked intrigue. In 2018, he was reported to be dating Sports Illustrated model Raven Lyn Corneil.Jack Dorsey (right) reportedly dated Raven Lyn Corneil (left) in 2018.Sports Illustrated Swimsuit / YouTube / GettyPage Six reported in September 2018 that the pair were spotted together at the Harper's Bazaar Icons party during New York Fashion Week. Page Six also reported that Dorsey's exes included actress Lily Cole and ballet dancer Sofiane Sylve. At the end of 2019 Dorsey said he would move to Africa for at least three months in 2020 and he almost lost his role as CEO.Jack Dorsey was almost ousted by an activist investor in 2020.AP Photo/Francois MoriDorsey's announcement followed a tour of Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and South Africa. "Africa will define the future (especially the bitcoin one!). Not sure where yet, but I'll be living here for 3-6 months mid 2020," he wrote on Twitter.But, then Dorsey came under threat of being ousted as Twitter CEO by activist investor Elliott Management.Both Bloomberg and CNBC reported in late February 2020 that major Twitter investor Elliott Management — led by Paul Singer — was seeking to replace Dorsey. Reasons given included the fact that Dorsey split his time between two firms by acting as CEO to both Twitter and financial tech firm Square, as well as his planned move to Africa.But Dorsey managed to strike a truce with Elliott Management.Jack Dorsey was able to reach a truce with the firm.AP Photo/Jose Luis MaganaTwitter announced on March 9, 2020 that it had reached a deal with Elliott Management which would leave Jack Dorsey in place as CEO.The deal included a $1 billion investment from private equity firm Silver Lake, and partners from both Elliott Management and Silver Lake joined Twitter's board.Patrick Pichette, lead independent director of Twitter's board, said he was "confident we are on the right path with Jack's leadership," but added that a new temporary committee would be formed to instruct the board's evaluation of Twitter's leadership.In July 2020, hackers compromised 130 Twitter accounts in a bitcoin scam.Dorsey had to deal with a major Twitter hack in 2020.TwitterThe accounts of high-profile verified accounts belonging to Bill Gates, Kim Kardashian West, and others were hacked, with attackers tweeting out posts asking users to send payment in bitcoin to fraudulent cryptocurrency addresses.As a solution, Twitter temporarily blocked all verified accounts — those with blue check marks on their profiles — but the damage was done.And Musk said during a July 2020 interview with The New York Times that he personally contacted Dorsey following the hack."Within a few minutes of the post coming up, I immediately got texts from a bunch of people I know, then I immediately called Jack so probably within less than five minutes my account was locked," said Musk. Twitter announced in 2021 that Dorsey had stepped down as CEO.Dorsey stepped down as CEO in 2021.Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesCNBC was the first to report on Dorsey's expected resignation, citing unnamed sources.Twitter confirmed the story the same day, announcing Chief Technology Officer Parag Agrawal would take over as CEO with immediate effect.Dorsey posted on his Twitter account saying: "Not sure anyone has heard but, I resigned from Twitter."In his tweet he included a screenshot of the email he sent to Twitter staff announcing his resignation.—jack⚡️ (@jack) November 29, 2021And in May 2022, his time on the board of directors officially came to an end, an anticipated move that coincides with the company's stockholder's meeting. Two days after Dorsey stepped down as Twitter CEO, Square changed its name to Block.Block's revamped its logo.Block"The name change creates room for further growth," the company said in a statement."Block references the neighborhood blocks where we find our sellers, a blockchain, block parties full of music, obstacles to overcome, a section of code, building blocks, and of course, tungsten cubes," it added.The line about tungsten cubes was an apparent reference to a craze among crypto enthusiasts of paying as much as $3,500 for novelty tungsten cubes.In April 2022, Dorsey changed his official title at Block from CEO to "Block Head."Jack Dorsey changed his title from CEO to "Block Head."BlockThe title change was made official in a regulatory filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on April 20, 2022."There will be no changes in Mr. Dorsey's roles and responsibilities," the filing said.Block's website was also updated to list his new title as Block Head.Musk tweeted in response to the news using fire emojis to signal his approval for Dorsey's title.—Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 23, 2022 Musk officially added the title of "Technoking" to his role at Tesla in March 2021.The Block Head is also a big believer in cryptocurrency, frequently posting about its virtues.Jack Dorsey likes to post on social media about crypto.Teresa Kroeger/Getty ImagesIn particular, Dorsey is a fan of Bitcoin, which he described in early 2019 as "resilient" and "principled." He told the "Tales of the Crypt" podcast in March that year that he was maxing out the $10,000 weekly spending limit on Square's Cash App buying up Bitcoin.In October 2020 he slammed Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong for forbidding employee activism at the company, saying cryptocurrency is itself a form of activism.He's also said he hopes bitcoin can help bring about "world peace" in a panel alongside Musk and Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood called "The B Word" on July 2021. He said he loves the bitcoin community because it's "weird as hell.""It's the only reason that I have a career — because I learned so much from people like who are building bitcoin today," Dorsey said.   Dorsey said in an April 2022 tweet his "biggest regret" was Twitter shutting down Vine.Dorsey has said he wishes he hadn't shut down Vine.Marco Bello/AFP/Getty ImagesDorsey replied to a Twitter user lamenting Vine's demise saying: "I know. Biggest regret," accompanied by a sad face emoji.Twitter acquired short-form video app Vine in 2012 but shut it down in 2016.In August 2022, Twitter's former head of security, Peiter Zatko, filed a whistleblower complaint with the SEC alleging the company participated in negligent security practices under Dorsey.Ex-Twitter security chief Peiter Zatko.Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty ImagesIn his 84-page report and subsequent testimony, Zatko made a number of allegations against the company, including claims it had "egregious deficiencies" around security protocol and that Dorsey experienced a "drastic loss of focus" in his last year as CEO of Twitter. In September 2022, Dorsey was deposed and questioned under oath as part of Elon Musk's legal battle with Twitter and his proposed $44 billion takeover.Dorsey was subpoenaed in Twitter's legal battle with Musk.APMusk's team accused Twitter of misleading investors and intentionally "miscounting" spam accounts, Insider reported. Later that month, private texts revealed Dorsey had tried to get Musk involved with Twitter a year prior to the Tesla CEO's $44 billion proposal.Text messages between Dorsey and Musk were uncovered as part of Twitter's lawsuit against Musk.Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images for The Met Museum/Vogue/Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesIn the texts, Dorsey explained why he left the company and said he previously pushed to get Musk involved with Twitter. "A new platform is needed. It can't be a company. That's why I left," Dorsey wrote to Musk, adding he thinks Twitter should be an "open-sourced protocol" and "cant have an advertising model." Dorsey also told Musk he had advocated for the Tesla CEO's addition to the Twitter board a year earlier, but the request was denied, which he said he thought "was completely stupid and backwards."In October 2022, as Musk was finalizing his Twitter deal, Dorsey quietly launched a beta for his new social-media company, Bluesky Social.In 2022, Dorsey launched a Twitter rival.Bluesky SocialThe blockchain-based company's beta launch raked in 30,000 signups in two days. According to Bluesky's website, the company is intended to support "a new foundation for social networking which gives creators independence from platforms, developers the freedom to build, and users a choice in their experience."As of July 2023, the site currently has over one million users, according to Gizmodo.More recently, Dorsey has apologized for some of the things that have taken place at Twitter since Musk took over.Dorsey apologized for the layoffs at Twitter.Jack Dorsey/TwitterAfter Musk ordered mass layoffs at Twitter after taking over in November 2022, Dorsey tweeted an apology: "I own the responsibility for why everyone is in this situation: I grew the company size too quickly. I apologize for that.""Folks at Twitter past and present are strong and resilient," he wrote on Twitter. "They will always find a way no matter how difficult the moment. I realize many are angry with me."He continued: "I am grateful for, and love, everyone who has ever worked on Twitter. I don't expect that to be mutual in this moment...or ever…and I understand." And despite initially supporting Musk's takeover, Dorsey hasn't always agreed with all of the Tesla CEO's decisions.AP/Getty ImagesLast year, Dorsey criticized Musk's decision to rebrand the social media site's Birdwatch feature to call it Community Notes, dubbing it the "most boring Facebook name ever."In April, the Twitter cofounder openly criticized Musk's leadership in a series of social media posts Friday, writing that "it all went south" and Musk "should have walked away" from the acquisition. Though in July, Dorsey said "running Twitter is hard" after Musk sparked a backlash by announcing "rate limits" on viewing tweets."I don't wish that stress upon anyone," Dorsey tweeted. "I trust that the team is doing their best under the constraints they have, which are immense. It's easy to critique the decisions from afar … which I'm guilty of … but I know the goal is to see Twitter thrive. It will."Dorsey also urged "calm" when Musk rebranded Twitter to X in July.Dorsey has also gotten more involved in politics in recent months.Jack Dorsey endorsed Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in June for his presidential campaign.John Lamparski/Getty ImagesHe endorsed Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has made misleading claims about the COVID virus, in June for his 2024 presidential campaign.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Digital asset investment products saw $55 million in outflows last week, reversing the prior week of positive flows. Digital asset investment products saw $55 million in outflows last week, reversing the prior week of positive flows, a new report reveals. The shift comes amid deteriorating investor sentiment triggered by a sector-wide market downturn. Bitcoin Funds See $42M in Outflows Outflows in digital asset investment funds rose to $55 million last week amid the industry-wide downturn that sent crypto prices tumbling and pushed market volumes significantly below average. According to CoinShares, one factor that may have contributed to rising outflows are recent reports suggesting that a decision by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is not imminent. Bitcoin accounted for most outflows at $42 million, marking a sharp U-turn from the week prior. Meanwhile, short-Bitcoin investment products registered outflows for the 17th straight week, totaling $2.2 million. Apart from Bitcoin, major altcoins also saw noteworthy outflows. Notably, Ethereum-related funds registered $9 million, while Polygon, Litecoin, and Polkadot saw outflows of US$0.9m, US$0.6m, and US$0.5m, respectively. On a regional basis, the negative fund flows were primarily concentrated in Canada and Germany, with 36 million and $11 million in outflows last week, respectively. Switzerland, on the other hand, recorded inflows of $3.5 million. Why Are Crypto Prices Down? The steep downturn in fund flows comes amid the latest crash in crypto prices that pushed the global cryptocurrency market cap from $1.22 trillion to $1.09 trillion over the past week. Bitcoin was on track to record its worst weekly slump since the FTX collapse in November 2022 on Thursday, sending the leading cryptocurrency to as low as $25,392 on that day. Investors hoped a court decision in the legal dispute between investment management firm Grayscale and the SEC could reverse the losses. Notably, DCG subsidiary Grayscale strives to convert its $12 billion GBTC bitcoin trust into an ETF, which could garner significant attention among institutional investors. The SEC initially rejected the application, leading to Grayscale filing the lawsuit to overturn the decision. The crypto community hoped to learn the court’s verdict on Friday, but no decision on the lawsuit was announced. This article originally appeared on The Tokenist Sponsored: Tips for Investing A financial advisor can help you understand the advantages and disadvantages of investment properties. Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn’t have to be hard. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to three financial advisors who serve your area, and you can interview your advisor matches at no cost to decide which one is right for you. If you’re ready to find an advisor who can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now. Investing in real estate can diversify your portfolio. But expanding your horizons may add additional costs. If you’re an investor looking to minimize expenses, consider checking out online brokerages. They often offer low investment fees, helping you maximize your profit......»»

The following are insights from Michael Silberberg, Head of Investor Relations at the crypto hedge fund AltTab Capital, on why ... Read more The following are insights from Michael Silberberg, Head of Investor Relations at the crypto hedge fund AltTab Capital, on why the crypto markets crashed today. Several media outlets, have reported that Cryptocurrency traders suffered $1 billion of losses in liquidations over the past 24 hours, according to Coinglass data, as digital-asset markets suffered one of their worst sell-offs of the year and bitcoin’s price fell to a two-month low. Bitcoin, the largest and original cryptocurrency, tumbled 7% to about $26,900, after earlier in the day dropping close to $25,000, the lowest since June. Michael is an expert on the crypto markets, and he’s asked me to share his views with you on why the crash happened. So, I’ve included a comment from him below.  Please feel free to use this, and if you have any questions just let me know. Michael Silberberg, Head of Investor Relations at AltTab Capital, commented, “We’ve been seeing increased Bitcoin futures trading lately. While there has been more open interest on the short side, there has also been accumulation in both directions as the market moved sideways in thin liquidity. This means many traders were betting on Bitcoin’s price movement.” “Then when the price dropped below a critical level, it triggered a wave of long-position liquidations. Traders betting on a price increase were forced to sell at a loss to avoid full liquidation due to insufficient margin. This snowballed as continuous selling drove the price down further, causing more longs to liquidate. Despite this drop, we still saw new inflows over the past week as long-term investors, like ourselves, saw discounted prices as an opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoin.”.....»»

Kiyosaki, a frequent economic doomsayer, has been sounding the alarm for an epic stock market crash for years. The Rich Dad Channel/YouTube Investors should brace for an epic "crash landing" to hit markets and the economy, Robert Kiyosaki said. The "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author pointed to Fitch's move to slash the US credit rating from AAA to AA+. That's the "first shoe to drop," Kiyosaki said, suggesting more tumult was on the way. Fitch Ratings downgrading its credit rating on US debt is the first sign of trouble brewing in financial markets, according to "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author Robert Kiyosaki.The personal finance guru — who is known for being a frequent economic doomsayer — responded to Fitch slashing the US's credit rating from AAA to AA+ late Tuesday, which sparked a sharp sell-off in stocks."First shoe to drop," Kiyosaki tweeted on Wednesday. "Brace for crash landing. Sorry for the bad news yet I have been warning for over a year the Fed, Treasury, big corp CEOs have been smoking fantasy weed. Take care." Kiyosaki has been sounding the alarm for a steep recession and an epic stock market crash for years, calling for the greatest market crash in world history in 2021. He's ramped up his warnings of a coming economic disaster in recent months, and urged his followers to buy up gold, silver, and bitcoin as stock prices tumble.Many economists, meanwhile, are warming to the idea that the US will see a soft landing of its economy. Though Fitch's downgrade shocked investors, the move didn't reveal anything that investors didn't already know about the economy, experts say, meaning the sell-off could be more of a seasonal correction as opposed to a new stressor for stocks. "Fitch's downgrade reflects a reality that investors have already learned to accept so, while today's equity market response was negative, it does not add anything new to the discussion," DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas said in a note on Thursday. "We should not therefore be too surprised at today's price action."Some Wall Street commentators have also brushed off the downgrade, given the historical safety of US debt assets. Larry Summers, Warren Buffett, and Jamie Dimon are among those who have expressed disapproval of the move, slamming Fitch's decision as "bizarre" and "ridiculous." Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

A blockchain exec said even a "conservative" forecast for bitcoin after its halving in April 2024 puts it at $105,000. A representation of cryptocurrencies including bitcoin and dogecoin are seen in this illustration photo.Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images Bitcoin is set to top $100,000 by 2025, according to a crypto executive.  Bitcoin's next halving occurs in April 2024, and the prior three halvings resulted in massive rallies before and after the event. A "conservative" estimate puts the token at $105,000 12 months after the event, he said. Historical trends say bitcoin is on pace to blow past record highs and hit $100,000 by 2025, according to a blockchain executive. Joe Kelly, the cofounder and CEO of Unchained, a cryptocurrency financial services firm with $2 billion in assets under management, said bitcoin's prior three "halving" events — or when the number of bitcoins rewarded to miners gets cut in half — suggest massive upside for the token leading up to and after the next halving in April 2024.Miners' rewards will be reduced from 6.25 bitcoin to 3.125 per block, creating a scarcity effect, according to the original whitepaper authored by Satoshi Nakamoto. Each of the past three halvings correlated with new all-time highs hit within 12 months."Taking a conservative view," Kelly wrote in a note Tuesday, "if bitcoin stays around $30K until the halving, even a 12-month post-halving increase of 250% — which, again, is conservative relative to previous halvings — would price bitcoin at $105K."The exec pointed out that one year after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, the price of bitcoin was up 8,069%, 284%, and 559%, respectively.He added that the world's most biggest crypto by market cap has also experienced sharp rallies leading up halving events, too.In the 12 months before each of the last three halvings, bitcoin has climbed 385%, 142%, and 17%, respectively. Fundstrat, meanwhile, published a note to clients at the end of July that said bitcoin could actually hit $180,000 before the next halving, largely on the back of momentum from a potential crypto ETF from BlackRock.  "This [bitcoin ETF launch] would bring daily demand to $125 million, while daily supply is only $25 million," Fundstrat strategists wrote. "The implied equilibrium price would need to rise so daily supply matches daily demand. Equilibrium analysis suggests that a clearing price is $140,000 to $180,000, before the April 2024 halvening."Bitcoin's total supply is capped at 21 million, and each halving brings the blockchain closer to that level. Halving happens every 210,000 blocks mined, or about every four years, with the most recent one occurring May 11, 2020. Barring surprises, the final halving event should take place in 2140.Bitcoin has surged 77% in 2023, recovering from last year's 65% sell-off. The rebound has coincided with historic interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, as well as a series of bank failures that began with Silicon Valley Bank.Any easing of monetary policy to come, according to Kelly, could provide a further boost for crypto."While past price activity suggests good odds, there is of course no guarantee that the next bitcoin halving will indeed drive an [all-time high]," Kelly said. "Mining rewards are not directly tied to market demand and other macroeconomic factors, including a rising interest rate environment, could deter investors from buying bitcoin."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»