Advertisements


Build Your Own 3,000-Piece, LEGO-Like Tesla Cybertruck: Here"s The Details

A leading toy company is back with another offering that should have Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) fans excited. read more.....»»

Category: blogSource: benzingaOct 13th, 2021

Cracks found on the International Space Station are a "fairly serious issue," a former NASA astronaut says

NASA says mysterious cracks on Russia's Zarya module are not currently a threat to astronauts. But there may be more, and they may spread. The International Space Station, photographed by Expedition 56 crew members from a Soyuz spacecraft. NASA/Roscosmos Former NASA astronaut Bill Shepherd gave Congress new details about cracks on the space station. About half a dozen cracks appeared in Russia's Zarya module, but they aren't a danger to astronauts. Investigating the cracks is a "fairly serious issue," Shepherd said, and there are probably more. See more stories on Insider's business page. Cracks are appearing on the International Space Station, and retired NASA astronaut Bill Shepherd says they're a "fairly serious issue."After Russian cosmonauts spotted the cracks on the station's Zarya module, Vladimir Solovyov, flight director of the Russian segment of the ISS, publicly revealed the discovery in August. The cracks don't pose a danger to astronauts at this time, NASA says, and the agency told Insider last month that nobody had identified "new potential leak sites" on the station.But in a House committee hearing on Tuesday, Shepherd told Congressional representatives that "there are probably other cracks we haven't found yet.""As far as I know, the Russian engineers and the NASA engineers - they've analyzed it - they don't exactly understand why these cracks are appearing now," Shepherd said.Shepherd has flown to orbit four times on the Space Shuttles. He worked on the International Space Station Program when its first modules were launching, and he commanded the first crew to the station in 2000. He said at the hearing that he'd learned more about the cracks in two meetings of NASA's ISS Advisory Committee, which he recently joined.The cracks are "quite small - they look like scratches on the surface of the aluminum plate," Shepherd said, adding, "there are probably something like half a dozen of them."NASA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.'This is bad' A Soyuz spacecraft approaches a docking port on the space station's Zarya module, December 22, 2009. NASA Shepherd told the House committee that currently, the cracks are not long enough to pose a "serious problem."But last month, Solovyov told state-owned news agency RIA: "This is bad and suggests that the fissures will begin to spread over time," according to a Reuters report translating his statement.Solovyov did not share how extensive the cracks were at the time.Shepherd didn't say whether NASA and Russia plan to further investigate the cracks beyond the analysis they already finished. In the past, both space agencies have taken their time when investigating and repairing issues that don't threaten the safety of astronauts or interfere with ISS operations.The space station is getting old An illustration shows an Axiom Space module orbiting above Earth. Axiom Space The ISS has been orbiting Earth for 20 years, and it's showing signs of age. Russia's side of the space station hosts some of its oldest components, and the cracks are the latest in a series of issues in those modules.Last year, a toilet on the segment went bust, temperatures mysteriously increased, and an oxygen-supply system broke down. In September 2019, another space-station module, Zvezda, which provides living quarters for the cosmonauts, started leaking air. That wasn't an immediate danger to astronauts, and they eventually found the hole and patched it with Kapton tape.Russian media previously reported that Solovyov told the Russian Academy of Sciences: "There are already a number of elements that have been seriously damaged and are out of service. Many of them are not replaceable. After 2025, we predict an avalanche-like failure of numerous elements onboard the ISS."Even Russia's newest module - a spacecraft called Nauka, which it launched to the ISS in July - has experienced serious problems. Shortly after it docked to the station, Nauka began unexpectedly firing its thrusters. This caused the entire ISS to spin around 540 degrees and flip upside down before flight controllers regained control an hour later. A screenshot from NASA's livestream shows the Nauka module approaching its port on the International Space Station, July 29, 2021. NASA via Youtube NASA has the funds to keep operating the ISS through 2024, and it's aiming to get an extension from Congress to continue the station's activities through 2028.But Shepherd said that NASA should first solve the mystery of the Zarya module's new cracks."Getting to the bottom of this is a fairly serious issue," Shepherd said. "I don't think the station's in any immediate danger. But before we clear the station for another so many years of operational use, we should better understand this."The ISS will eventually be retired and push itself into the atmosphere to burn up. After that, NASA doesn't want to build a new station; the agency is recruiting private companies to do that instead. It's currently evaluating about a dozen space-station proposals from various companies, with the aim of distributing $400 million among two to four of them. Sergei Krikalev (left) and James H. Newman begin work on the Zarya module, December 11, 1998 NASA Eventually, NASA hopes to be one of many customers on private commercial space stations.The agency has already awarded Axiom Space $140 million to fly modules up to the ISS that will eventually detach from it to become their own space station. Axiom aims to launch its first module to the ISS in 2024.China, meanwhile, launched the first piece of its own space station earlier this year, and astronauts completed their first three-month mission there last week.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytSep 22nd, 2021

Unicorp"s Chuck Whittall to build $40M office tower that"s a "piece of art"

This developer revealed more details on his office project that's part of Unicorp's $1 billion O-Town West near Disney......»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsJan 22nd, 2019

We"re Living In A Chaos Economy... Here"s How To End It

We're Living In A Chaos Economy... Here's How To End It Authored by Mark Thornton via The Mises Institute, The Federal Reserve has been increasing the money supply at an explosive rate. The federal budget, deficits, and the trade deficit are record levels. Governments, both foreign and domestic, have locked down people, restricting production and consumption. How should this be viewed by an economist? There is clearly chaos in the economy, and hardly a day goes by when I don’t find unusual if not unprecedented situations in day-to-day economic life. However, many people and economists are either oblivious to the problems or in denial. Things are normal for them. Politicians are mostly in this camp. For economists and investment promotors, inflation is “transitory.” They don’t know how the economy works and they expect near perfection from the economy and entrepreneurs. This view is wrong. The chaos is all too real for most others. Homemakers who spend household income are seeing their purchasing power shrink, their choices disappearing, and more of their time consumed stretching the family budgets. Christmas shopping will be worse than normal. Chaos deniers are further entrenched in their experience by the mainstream media (MSM). The problems are either not reported by the MSM or are masked by aggregate statistics like price inflation, i.e., the Consumer Price Index, low unemployment, wage increases, and extremely high stock markets and real estate, especially housing prices. These stats make people feel good, or at least less nervous. Below the government economists’ radar there is real economic suffering. Small businesses are hurting and going out of business. Based on Help Wanted signs I drive by every day, it is extremely difficult to hire employees or purchase inputs. One local BBQ restaurant recently had a sign that said, “Out of Chicken, Pork and Beef.” Big business is likewise finding roadblocks throughout their supply chains, primarily because of lockdowns and covid restrictions. This government roadblock to economic life is epitomized by the five hundred thousand shipping containers stuck off the port of Long Beach, California. Meanwhile, domestic inventories are dwindling for everything from houses to mayonnaise.  Austrian economics provides an understanding of the causes of this chaos and the way to solve it. The Fed’s actions have been a tidal wave force against the economy. Printing money has given some signs of prosperity, but its main known effect tangible effects are higher prices, malinvestment, and more wealth redistributed from the middle class to the very wealthy. The solution is straightforward. The central bank needs to stop its policy of propping up the markets for government bonds and home mortgages and the perverse effects it is creating on the general loan market in the form of ultralow interest rates. Promises of the Fed “tapering,” where they do fewer asset purchases, is really too little too late. Completely ending assets purchases by the Fed would stop their mischief, limit the damage, and would make stocks, bonds, and homes more affordable for Americans. Lockdowns and restrictions are a great harm to the US and world economies. Why are so many cargo ships sitting waiting for unloading? Why are others going unfilled in the first place? Why aren’t truckers driving product to market? Why isn’t product being placed on shelves? There are millions of details here, but in many cases, workers are not available or are unwilling to comply with covid restrictions and requirements. Production is stuck in a quagmire of government intervention. A big piece of the problem are the restrictions and subsidies in the US labor markets. Special unemployment benefits and stimulus checks from the government mean that not working pays more than working, plus more leisure time for those that accept being on the public dole. In one recent week I engaged with three small businesses. They could not have continued to operate if they had not been able to hire a few new workers who were unwilling to be on the dole or, more likely, had not realized how easy it is to collect unemployment. Locally, McDonalds is offering 50 percent higher than minimum wage for fourteen-year-old kids, and they are still having trouble attracting workers! The bottlenecks, empty shelves, business closures, reduced hours, and “worker wanted” signs are not the direct result of price controls nor are they the fault of the market economy. Rather prices in some areas of the economy need to rise so high and so fast to harmonize supply and demand that entrepreneurs can hardly keep pace in this environment dominated by government interventions and heightened uncertainty. I truly sympathize with entrepreneurs who are trying to save jobs, keep food on our tables, plus pay a huge chunk of taxes. Locally, an ice cream stand that has been successfully in business for almost seven decades had to shut down. It wasn’t the complexity of the business, the lack of product or even the higher prices it charged. They could not find and maintain a workforce through the maze of restrictions of unemployment subsidies. The current owner of this beloved multigeneration family-owned business explained, “We don’t really know what’s going to happen. It just depends on COVID and when people want to start working.” It is unclear what aspect(s) of covid is their primary concern, but the main complaint is that “[n]obody wants to work anymore.” The federal government, in a variety of ways, is what killed this business. It is evident and increasingly clear that unemployment insurance bonuses and government stimulus checks must be stopped for the economy to recover. It’s not just retail products that are not readily available even at higher prices. People who repair and replace things that wear out or break in normal circumstances are also much scarcer. Repair-and-replace service dealers are having a hard time finding parts, replacement models, and workers to make parts and products and to service and replace them in a timely manner. I have had several such companies not answer their phone and not be able to offer appointments or show up on time because of a lack of parts and employees. All of these companies were reliable and showed up on time for repair appointments before the government-caused chaos. Buying a new car or large flat-screen smart TV is a joyous occasion in a family’s material life. We know that we will get years of enjoyment for a good price. How does this compare to going without a refrigerator, hot-water heater, or air conditioner because the product was not available? It should be clear that the cause of our new economic problems is massive across-the-board government intervention here and abroad. Among the negative consequences are these harms and dislocations we face. The solution is to remove those government interventions. Not only have they caused a great deal of interference in economic transactions, but they have destroyed businesses and people’s lives. Many have also even died as a result, from the despair and chaos, not the disease. Meanwhile, social media and internet giants, and pharmaceutical companies, among others, have received an enormous unearned windfall. This is an economic crisis, and it is one of the government’s making. Economic statistics and stock markets (led by a small number of superwinners from the lockdowns) have masked the calamity. The sure remedy is to end the interventions, especially the Fed’s inflationary policy and the restrictions and subsidies on production and consumption. This would help restore the market economy to a functioning state. Tyler Durden Sat, 10/16/2021 - 13:30.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge16 hr. 6 min. ago

WallStreetBets founder Jaime Rogozinski breaks down the Nancy Pelosi stock controversy, and details his next project for retail investors

WallStreetBets founder Jaime Rogozinski talks to Insider about his blockchain-based trading platform WSB DApp. WallStreetBets founder Jaime Rogozinski. Jaime Rogozinski. WallStreetBets founder Jaime Rogozinski talks to Insider about his blockchain-based trading platform WSB DApp. "This is very much a way for me to say crypto and Wall Street are definitely going to merge," says Rogozinski. He suggested the platform create a "Nancy ETP" to capture the attention on stock trading by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband. Jaime Rogozinski, the founder of WallStreetBets, believes there's potential for a new investment product tracking the stock bets made by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband, whose trading has sparked outrage and fascination in equal measures among amateur traders.In an interview, he suggested a Pelosi-themed exchange-traded portfolio could emerge on the latest iteration of his campaign to empower retail investors - a platform called WallStreetBets DApp."I got this idea, somewhat of a joke, but I can't shake it so I'm probably going to start pushing for it, which is this 'Nancy ETP,'" Rogozinski told Insider.But his vision for WallStreetBets DApp, a blockchain-based shop for stocks and other assets, extends far beyond one potentially trendy ETP. A strategic partner in the project, Rogozinski wants ordinary investors to build their wealth with the same kind of community-powered energy that the WallStreetBets forum on Reddit used to upend the trading world this year. WallStreetBets was thrust into the spotlight in January after retail investors active on the site banded together to drive a massive upsurge in video-game retailer GameStop's stock price, squeezing hedge funds shorting the so-called meme stock. The WSB DApp is an expression of what Rogozinski sees as the next big thing in the financial world. "This is very much a way for me to say crypto and Wall Street are definitely going to merge and they're starting to spill into each other already," he told Insider during a video interview from Mexico City, where he lives with his family."For far too long, I made the mistake of assuming blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies were one in the same thing - and they're not," Rogozinski said. "This whole DeFi (decentralized finance) infrastructure that's able to create a parallel ecosystem in finances is astoundingly powerful, more than I could have imagined." 'Nancy ETP'Rogozinski's idea for an automated "Nancy ETP" would highlight a key feature on WSB DApp. The platform allows community members to propose the creation and makeup of ETPs, which can hold a mix of assets such as domestic and international equities, cryptocurrencies, and metals.The WSB DApp platform has a native token, the $WSB governance token, that people can buy and then use to vote on the type of assets and weightings that should go into an ETP. In an example given in May, token holders who think Tesla should make up 90% of a particular ETP instead of 10% can vote on it by signing a transaction using their $WSB tokens during voting cycles.At the same time, a Pelosi-centered ETP would apply the "if you can't beat them, join them" notion to investing while also drawing attention to outrage and debate over stock trading by members of Congress and their families, Rogozinski said. In the case of Paul Pelosi, one trade in particular stood out. It involved shares of Google parent Alphabet that made $5.3 million for him prior to a House Judiciary Committee vote on tech antitrust regulation. Spokespeople for Speaker Pelosi told media outlets she owns no stock herself and had no knowledge of her husband's equity purchases. Meanwhile, as the uproar continues, "people are able to make money," with a product like the "Nancy ETP", said Rogozinski. "Nothing's sure but past performance is definitely impressive," he said broadly of Paul Pelosi's stock picks.The strong performance of his stock picks over the last two years has prompted many retail investors to mirror Paul Pelosi's investments. Meanwhile, memes about Nancy Pelosi have popped up, suggesting she's a skilled investor that can make money off of insider information.Life after moderating WallStreetBetsThe Pelosi controversy has the right mix of ingredients to thrive in discussions on the WallStreetBets forum, which Rogozinski created in 2012 in a quest to find a place for ideas about aggressive, money-making trades. But in April of 2020, he was removed as a moderator on WallStreetBets after being accused by other moderators of trying to profit from the subreddit.He sold the rights to his life story to RatPac Entertainment in exchange for a payment in the low six figures, according to a Wall Street Journal report in May. More about the dispute will be revealed through projects the entertainment company plans to produce, which could include movies, podcasts, TV shows, and other vehicles, he said. "The documentary is well underway and will be out next year," Rogozinski said. And while he's no longer a WallStreetBets moderator, his WSB DApp platform looks to continue its mission of democratizing markets. Using the $WSB token, retail investors will rebalance ETPs, not by "opaque and politically connected" banks and hedge funds, WallStreetBets said in May.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nyt19 hr. 38 min. ago

"It Was Just A Big Poker Game": Michael Dell Talks Dealing With Carl Icahn, Semi Shortage, In New Interview

"It Was Just A Big Poker Game": Michael Dell Talks Dealing With Carl Icahn, Semi Shortage, In New Interview Among what are likely pages of overused boring business anecdotes, Michael Dell's new book, "Play Nice But Win: A CEO’s Journey From Founder to Leader", also includes an interesting look at doing business with Carl Icahn.  Dell recently sat down with Bloomberg for an interview and revealed some of the book's details, as well as his take on current events in the semiconductor industry, which has been experiencing a year long shortage..  Speaking about when Carl Icahn took a stake in Dell and tried to prevent the company from going public, Dell said: "I didn’t really have much experience dealing with someone who would just go on television and lie." He claimed that after confronting Icahn, he found out that the "activist" didn't even have a plan for the company. Dell said: "I did go to his house and confront him, and I saw he didn’t have any plan whatsoever for the company. To him it was just a big poker game." In other news, Dell believes that the semiconductor shortage could wind up persisting.  "It takes about three years to build a new semiconductor plant. We’re only 18 months into this," he told Bloomberg. "We’ve heard from our customers that our supply chain is functioning well. They may not like the lead time, but it’s predictable and reliable." Dell pointed out that he thought government should do more to provide infrastructure for semiconductors in the United States.  "When you have China investing so aggressively in these strategic areas and the U.S. and Europe not, it creates a real challenge," he said. Tyler Durden Fri, 10/15/2021 - 19:30.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 15th, 2021

China Releases Humiliating Footage Of Blindfolded Indian Troops Captured On Disputed Border

China Releases Humiliating Footage Of Blindfolded Indian Troops Captured On Disputed Border Earlier this year China state media began belatedly releasing on-the-ground video footage of the Ladakh Galwan Valley clash which occurred in June 15-16, 2020 - and resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers. While Indian media sources claimed dozens of soldiers were also killed on the Chinese side, it resulted in a heightened military standoff which continues to this day, as peace talks have lately faltered.  Since the 2020 deadly skirmish, the Chinese side has kept quieter on the details, but this week released high quality video of the moment PLA soldiers captured Indian border troops and led them captive with blindfolds.  China now released HD version of captured Indian soldiers at 2020 Galwan River Valley Clash pic.twitter.com/wbcK51rwMb — Carl Zha (@CarlZha) October 15, 2021 Days ago a 13th round of military commander-level talks failed to produce any breakthroughs - instead troop encampments and military build-up involving tens of thousands along the disputed Line of Actual Control has continued. Some recent reports have suggested that the PLA military releasing such humiliating images of defeated looking Indian captives being led away by Chinese border patrols are meant as public retaliation for recent alleged Indian aggressions on the border.   This isn't the first time China has released snippets of 2020 clash footage at Ladakh, but it's perhaps the most provocative release to date. The recently failed talks mean that India and China will continue to have troops forwardly deployed in Ladakh, where the skirmishes took place. China has blamed the failure on what it called "unreasonable demands" from India. In the region there are tens of thousands deployed by either side. Since the deadly June 2020 skirmish, the US has stepped up military cooperation with India, including a new military pact that shares more satellite data with New Delhi. With this increased intelligence sharing, India can keep a better eye on Chinese troops. Tyler Durden Fri, 10/15/2021 - 20:30.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 15th, 2021

Here"s The Truth Behind Biden"s 24/7 Port Operations Pledge

Here's The Truth Behind Biden's 24/7 Port Operations Pledge Written by Lori Ann LaRocco, author of: “Trade War: Containers Don’t Lie, Navigating the Bluster” (Marine Money Inc., 2019) “Dynasties of the Sea: The Untold Stories of the Postwar Shipping Pioneers” (Marine Money Inc., 2018). First published on FreightWaves When you tear away the frills of President Biden’s supply chain announcement, it is essentially a political pawn to push the infrastructure bill. The ugly truth is the congestion will not be alleviated anytime soon and it will definitely not be any better in the next 90 days. Why?  It’s common sense and math.  You can’t blame private-sector companies for this plan’s future letdown. Trade takes people and coordination among all the players within the supply chain. The ports and all of the stakeholders within these ports must be on the same page when it comes to a 24/7 operation. The holes in this announcement are numerous. First, 3,500 additional containers moved in a week is 200 containers a day. During the month of August, the San Pedro Bay ports moved 1,241,896 TEUs. This projection of 3,500 does not move the needle at all. That’s a mere 14,000 containers — which translates into just 1% of the total TEUs. This plan is being called a “sprint.” Biden’s announcement of 24/7 ports is not accurate. Only one terminal out of the 12 in San Pedro is operating 24 hours a day — Total Terminals International (TTI) at the Port of Long Beach — and that every-second schedule is only Monday through Thursday, making it a 24/4 situation, not 24/7. A Port of Long Beach official said discussions were taking place with other terminals. But as of now, no other terminals have signed on. In the pursuit of 24/7, you need all the players to make this successful. The 24/7 operation at the Port of Los Angeles is not even happening. When asked if the port was going 24/7 on Thursday, the day after this announcement, the port press office answered in an email: “No(t) one marine terminal will go 24/7 tomorrow. This [is] a process to work the details of expanded hours leading to around-the-clock work in the private sector. It will take all private- and public-sector partners to operationalize this. There are no fast levers, but we have more cargo than ever and need to move it safely and securely. Gene [Seroka, executive director] will be meeting with industry associates tomorrow on this. No ETA as of today.” So the ports as of right now are status quo as it relates to expanded operations. The reason for this lack of 24/7 is because every facet of the supply chain must be participating in an equal fashion. Truckers are not going to work 24/7 if they can’t pick up containers at a warehouse that is closed. The flow of trade moves when everyone in that flow is working. The question is what can be done to change the behaviors of those in the supply chain to go to 24/7? This frustration can be read in a press release from the Harbor Trucking Association, which said the Biden administration’s plan did not address the core issues that have been plaguing the supply chain. The release stated, “While steamship lines and their marine terminal partners have been pointing the finger at the trucking industry for not utilizing appointments during this crisis, the underlying causes have continued to compound unchecked. Challenges faced by truckers doing business at the ports stem from productivity and efficiency issues that are not alleviated by merely shifting to 24/7 gate operations.” The HTA said thousands of empty containers currently are sitting in motor carrier yards on top of the chassis, preventing those chassis from moving an import container off the dock. “So those appointments go unused. … This is not an issue of unwillingness to pick up cargo, the entire supply chain wants this cargo moved. It is instead a tangled web of shifting constraints that impede and discourage participation,” the statement read. Also in this plan FedEx, UPS and Walmart were mentioned in stepping up in helping alleviate the supply chain.  When asked for specifics, FedEx global media relations responded: “FedEx Logistics President and CEO Dr. Udo Lange appreciated the opportunity to join other business leaders and the administration to share our expertise and discuss supply chain issues, but we have no other details to share at this time.” Walmart spokesperson Ashley Nolan said: “We’ll increase throughput by as much as 50% during the nighttime hours being added at the port.” At the time of publication, UPS did not respond to comment. In the sea of faces of those attending this press event, a critical piece of the supply chain was missing — the ocean carriers and the port terminals.  When Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s office was asked why there was no participation, the response was vague: “The administration has and will continue to have a regular dialogue with ocean carriers and terminal operators.”  And yet, at least one of those carriers has not been contacted — Hapag-Lloyd, one of the largest ocean shipping lines in the world. “We have not been approached,” confirmed a company spokesperson. “Ships are already operating 24/7 whenever possible. The challenge is to get containers off the terminal by truck and rail because the warehouses will not/cannot take deliveries on weekends. It is a lot about shippers’ inability to take delivery of their goods and infrastructure bottlenecks in the U.S.” The carriers and the terminal operators are key pieces to this puzzle. The terminals are the key segment of the supply chain that not only schedules the truck container pickups and drop-offs, they also request the  labor to unload the vessels. So if this is a 90-day sprint, the U.S. supply chain needs more muscle and a massive shot of adrenaline. Tyler Durden Fri, 10/15/2021 - 19:10.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytOct 15th, 2021

Douglaston completes build-out for urgent care center at Crossroads Plaza

Douglaston Development, Essen Health Care and New York City elected officials today celebrated the ribbon cutting of a brand new urgent, primary and specialty medical care facility at Crossroads Plaza, a 587,000 s/f, mixed-income development located at 828 East 149th Street in the Mott Haven section of the Bronx. With limited urgent-care, medical and... The post Douglaston completes build-out for urgent care center at Crossroads Plaza appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. Douglaston Development, Essen Health Care and New York City elected officials today celebrated the ribbon cutting of a brand new urgent, primary and specialty medical care facility at Crossroads Plaza, a 587,000 s/f, mixed-income development located at 828 East 149th Street in the Mott Haven section of the Bronx. With limited urgent-care, medical and dental facilities in the area, Essen’s new 18,272 s/f, ground-floor space, which is slated to be fully operational this Fall heralds the addition of a much-needed resource to Crossroads Plaza residents and the larger Bronx community and completes Douglaston’s three-phase development complex. “Essen Health Care’s new facility completes the last phase of the Crossroads Plaza development and we’re thrilled to see this final piece of the project come to fruition,” said Jed Resnick, Chief Executive Officer at Douglaston Development. “Crossroads Plaza not only provides the Bronx community with a broad range of affordable housing options, but simultaneously serves the community with early childhood education, social services, and now healthcare as well.  We are proud to have commercial tenants whose missions so closely align with our own values.” “We are delighted to introduce Essen to this neighborhood in the Bronx,” said Russell Lang, a senior vice president at Douglaston Development. “As a result of this soon to be opened location, the community will greatly benefit from the myriad of health care services Essen will provide as well as the creation of employment opportunities for area residents with approximately 40 new job positions created at this facility.” “We are excited to open a new facility in the Bronx at Crossroads Plaza. It is one of our largest locations to date and the largest private practice medical center in the Bronx,” said Awais Munawar, Director of Facilities at Essen Health Care. “We plan to continue our mission of providing top-notch and accessible health care options to our patients at our 32nd location in the Bronx.” In addition to Essen Health Care, Crossroads Plaza, the development is comprised of 425 low- to moderate-income affordable units, a 20,000 s/f pedestrian plaza, a universal pre-kindergarten, the Bronx headquarters for the not-for-profit service and advocacy organization The New York Foundling, and an underground parking complex. Douglaston Development completed the development – built on the site of an abandoned gas station – in 2019. The post Douglaston completes build-out for urgent care center at Crossroads Plaza appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklyOct 15th, 2021

Futures Jump On Profit Optimism As Oil Tops $85; Bitcoin Nears $60,000

Futures Jump On Profit Optimism As Oil Tops $85; Bitcoin Nears $60,000 One day after the S&P posted its biggest one-day surge since March, index futures extended this week’s gains, helped by a stellar bank earnings, while the latest labor market data and inflation eased stagflation fears for the time being. . The 10-year Treasury yield rose and the dollar was steady. Goldman Sachs reports on Friday. At 715 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 147 points, or 0.42%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 16.5 points, or 0.37%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 42.75 points, or 0.28%. Oil futures topped $85/bbl, jumping to their highest in three years amid an energy crunch that’s stoking inflationary pressures and prices for raw materials. A gauge of six industrial metals hit a record high on the London Metal Exchange.  Energy firms including Chevron and Exxon gained about half a percent each, tracking Brent crude prices that scaled the 3 year high. Solid earnings in the reporting season are tempering fears that rising costs and supply-chain snarls will hit corporate balance sheets and growth. At the same time, the wider debate about whether a stagflation-like backdrop looms remains unresolved. “We don’t sign up to the stagflation narrative that is doing the rounds,” said Hugh Gimber, global strategist at the perpetually optimistic J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “The economy is being supported by robust consumer balance sheets, rebounding business investment and a healthy labor market.” “After a choppy start to the week, equity markets appear to be leaning towards a narrative that companies can continue to grow profits, despite the combined pressures of higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in London. Bitcoin and the crypto sector jumped after Bloomberg reported late on Thursday that the Securities and Exchange Commission is poised to allow the first U.S. Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund to begin trading in a watershed moment for the cryptocurrency industry. Bitcoin traded off session highs having tested $60k during Asian hours, but will likely rise to new all time highs shortly. Also overnight, Joe Biden signed a bill providing a short-term increase in the debt limit, averting the imminent threat of a financial calamity. But it only allows the Treasury Department to meets its financial obligations until roughly Dec. 3, so the can has been kicked for less than two months - brace for more bitter partisan battles in the coming weeks. This week’s move into rate-sensitive FAAMG growth names looked set to continue, with their shares inching up. Moderna rose 3.0% after a U.S. FDA panel voted to recommend booster shots of its COVID-19 vaccine for Americans aged 65 and older and high-risk people. Western Digital slipped 2.5% as Goldman Sachs downgraded the storage hardware maker’s stock to “neutral” from “buy”. Here are some of the key premarket movers on Friday morning: Virgin Galactic (SPCE US) shares slump as much as 23% in U.S. premarket trading as the firm is pushing the start of commercial flights further into next year after rescheduling a test flight, disappointing investors with the unexpected delay to its space tourism business plans Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rise in U.S. premarket trading after a report that the Securities and Exchange Commission is poised to allow the first U.S. Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund to begin trading.  Bit Digital (BTBT US) +6.7%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +4.6%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) +3.6% Alcoa (AA US) shares jump 5.6% in thin volumes after co. reported profits that beat the average analyst estimate and said it will be paying a dividend to its shareholders Moderna (MRNA US) extends Thursday’s gains; Piper Sandler recommendation on Moderna Inc. to overweight from neutral, a day after co.’s Covid-19 booster got FDA nod for use in older, high-risk people Duck Creek Technologies (DCT US) shares fell 12% in Thursday postmarket trading after the software company projected 2022 revenue that fell short of the average analyst estimate 23andMe Holdings (ME US) soared 14% in Thursday postmarket trading after EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson called the genetics testing company “the next Roku” on CNBC Corsair Gaming (CRSR US) shares fell 3.7% in post-market trading after it cut its net revenue forecast for the full year Early on Friday, China's PBOC broke its silence on Evergrande, saying risks to the financial system are controllable and unlikely to spread. Authorities and local governments are resolving the situation, central bank official Zou Lan said. The bank has asked lenders to keep credit to the real estate sector stable and orderly. In Europe, gains for banks, travel companies and carmakers outweighed losses for utilities and telecommunications industries, pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 0.3%. Telefonica fell 3.3%, the most in more than four months, after Barclays cut the Spanish company to underweight. Temenos and Pearson both slumped more than 10% after their business updates disappointed investors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Devoteam shares rise as much as 25% after its controlling shareholder, Castillon, increased its stake in the IT consulting group to 85% and launched an offer for the remaining capital. QinetiQ rises as much as 5.4% following a plunge in the defense tech company’s stock on Thursday. Investec upgraded its recommendation to buy and Berenberg said the shares now look oversold. Hugo Boss climbs as much as 4.4% to the highest level since September 2019 after the German apparel maker reported 3Q results that exceeded expectations. Jefferies (hold) noted the FY guidance hike also was bigger than expected. Mediclinic rises as much as 7.7% to highest since May 26 after 1H results, which Morgan Stanley says showed strong underlying operating performance with “solid metrics.” Temenos sinks as much as 14% after the company delivered a “mixed bag” with its 3Q results, according to Baader (sell). Weakness in Europe raises questions about the firm’s outlook for a recovery in the region, the broker said. Pearson declines as much as 12%, with analysts flagging weaker trading in its U.S. higher education courseware business in its in-line results. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks headed for their best week in more than a month amid a list of positive factors including robust U.S. earnings, strong results at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and easing home-loan restrictions in China.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.3%, pushing its advance this week to more than 1.5%, the most since the period ended Sept. 3. Technology shares provided much of the boost after chip giant TSMC announced fourth-quarter guidance that beat analysts’ expectations and said it will build a fabrication facility for specialty chips in Japan. Shares in China rose as people familiar with the matter said the nation loosened restrictions on home loans at some of its largest banks.  Conditions are good for tech and growth shares now long-term U.S. yields have fallen following inflation data this week, Shogo Maekawa, a strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Tokyo. “If data going forward are able to provide an impression that demand is strong too -- on top of a sense of relief from easing supply chain worries -- it’ll be a reason for share prices to take another leap higher.”  Asia’s benchmark equity gauge is still 10% below its record-high set in February, as analysts stay on the lookout for higher bond yields and the impact of supply-chain issues on profit margins.  Japanese stocks rose, with the Topix halting a three-week losing streak, after Wall Street rallied on robust corporate earnings. The Topix rose 1.9% to close at 2,023.93, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 1.8% to 29,068.63. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 3.7%. Out of 2,180 shares in the index, 1,986 rose and 155 fell, while 39 were unchanged. For the week, the Topix climbed 3.2% and the Nikkei added 3.6%. Semiconductor equipment and material makers rose after TSMC said it will build a fabrication facility for specialty chips in Japan and plans to begin production there in late 2024.  U.S. index futures held gains during Asia trading hours. The contracts climbed overnight after a report showed applications for state unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest since March 2020.  “U.S. initial jobless claims fell sharply, and have returned to levels seen before the spread of the coronavirus,” said Nobuhiko Kuramochi, a market strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo. “The fact that more people are returning to their jobs will help ease supply chain problems caused by the lack of workers.” Australian stocks also advanced, posting a second week of gains. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.7% to close at 7,362.00, with most sectors ending higher.  The benchmark added 0.6% since Monday, climbing for a second week. Miners capped their best week since July 16 with a 3% advance. Hub24 jumped on Friday after Evans & Partners upgraded the stock to positive from neutral. Pendal Group tumbled after it reported net outflows for the fourth quarter of A$2.3 billion. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.3% to 13,012.19 In rates, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose over 3bps to 1.54%. Treasuries traded heavy across long-end of the curve into early U.S. session amid earning-driven gains for U.S. stock futures. Yields are higher by more than 3bp across long-end of the curve, 10- year by 2.8bp at about 1.54%, paring its first weekly decline since August; weekly move has been led by gilts and euro-zone bonds, also under pressure Friday, with U.K. 10-year yields higher by 3.3bp. Today's bear-steepening move pares the weekly bull-flattening trend. U.S. session features a packed economic data slate and speeches by Fed’s Bullard and Williams.   In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed even as the greenback weakened against most of its Group-of-10 peers; the euro hovered around $1.16 while European and U.S. yields rose, led by the long end. Norway’s krone led G-10 gains as oil jumped to $85 a barrel for the first time since late 2018 amid the global energy crunch; the currency rallied by as much as 0.6% to 8.4015 per dollar, the strongest level since June. New Zealand’s dollar advanced to a three-week high as bets on RBNZ’s tightening momentum build ahead of Monday’s inflation data; the currency is outperforming all G-10 peers this week. The yen dropped to a three-year low as rising equities in Asia damped demand for low-yielding haven assets. China’s offshore yuan advanced to its highest in four months while short-term borrowing costs eased after the central bank added enough medium-term funds into the financial system to maintain liquidity at existing levels. In commodities, crude futures trade off best levels. WTI slips back below $82, Brent fades after testing $85. Spot gold slips back through Thursday’s lows near $1,786/oz. Base metals extend the week’s rally with LME nickel and zinc gaining over 2%. Today's retail sales report, due at 08:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show retail sales fell in September amid continued shortages of motor vehicles and other goods. The data will come against the backdrop of climbing oil prices, labor shortages and supply chain disruptions, factors that have rattled investors and have led to recent choppiness in the market. Looking at the day ahead now, and US data releases include September retail sales, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for October, and the Empire State manufacturing survey for October. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bullard and Williams, and earnings releases include Charles Schwab and Goldman Sachs. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,443.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 467.66 German 10Y yield up 2.4 bps to -0.166% Euro little changed at $1.1608 MXAP up 1.3% to 198.33 MXAPJ up 1.2% to 650.02 Nikkei up 1.8% to 29,068.63 Topix up 1.9% to 2,023.93 Hang Seng Index up 1.5% to 25,330.96 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,572.37 Sensex up 0.9% to 61,305.95 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,361.98 Kospi up 0.9% to 3,015.06 Brent Futures up 1.0% to $84.83/bbl Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,787.54 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.92 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg China’s central bank broke its silence on the crisis at China Evergrande Group, saying risks to the financial system stemming from the developer’s struggles are “controllable” and unlikely to spread The ECB has a good track record when it comes to flexibly deploying its monetary instruments and will continue that approach even after the pandemic crisis, according to policy maker Pierre Wunsch Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance says fourth issuance of BTP Futura to start on Nov. 8 until Nov. 12, according to a statement The world’s largest digital currency rose about 3% to more than $59,000 on Friday -- taking this month’s rally to over 35% -- after Bloomberg News reported the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission looks poised to allow the country’s first futures-based cryptocurrency ETF Copper inventories available on the London Metal Exchange hit the lowest level since 1974, in a dramatic escalation of a squeeze on global supplies that’s sent spreads spiking and helped drive prices back above $10,000 a ton A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded higher amid tailwinds from the upbeat mood across global peers including the best day for the S&P 500 since March after strong US bank earnings, encouraging data and a decline in yields spurred risk appetite. The ASX 200 (+0.7%) was positive as the tech and mining sectors continued to spearhead the advances in the index in which the former took impetus from Wall St where the softer yield environment was conducive to the outperformance in tech, although mining giant Rio Tinto was among the laggards following weaker quarterly production results. The Nikkei 225 (+1.8%) was buoyed as exporters benefitted from the JPY-risk dynamic but with Fast Retailing failing to join in on the spoils despite an 88% jump in full-year net as its profit guidance underwhelmed with just 3% growth seen for the year ahead, while Taiwan's TAIEX (+2.2%) surged with the spotlight on TSMC earnings which reached a record high amid the chip crunch and with the Co. to also build a factory in Japan that could receive JPY 500bln of support from the Japanese government. The Hang Seng (+1.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) were initially indecisive amid the overhang from lingering developer default concerns although found some mild support from reports that China is to relax banks' mortgage limits through the rest of 2021. Focus was also on the PBoC which announced a CNY 500bln MLF operation, although this just matched the amount maturing this month and there are mixed views regarding prospects of a looming RRR cut with ANZ Bank's senior China strategist recently suggesting the potential for a 50bps cut in RRR or targeted MLF as early as today, although a recent poll showed analysts had pushed back their calls for a RRR cut from Q4 2021 to Q1 2022. Finally, 10yr JGBs marginally pulled back from this week’s advances after hitting resistance at the 151.50 level, with demand hampered amid the firm gains in Japanese stocks and the lack of BoJ purchases in the market today. Top Asian News Hong Kong Probes Going Concern Reporting of Evergrande U.S. Futures Hold Gains as Oil Hits 3-Year High: Markets Wrap Toyota Cuts November Outlook by 15% on Parts Shortage, Covid Yango Group Wires Repayment Fund for Onshore Bond Due Oct. 22 Bourses in Europe have held onto the modest gains seen at the cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%; Stoxx 600 +0.3%), but the region is off its best levels with the upside momentum somewhat faded heading into the US open, and amidst a lack of fresh newsflow. US equity futures have remained in positive territory, although the latest leg lower in bonds has further capped the tech-laden NQ (+0.2%), which underperforms vs the ES (+0.3%), YM (+0.3%) and RTY (+0.7%), with traders on the lookout for another set of earnings, headlined by Goldman Sachs at 12:25BST/07:25EDT. Back to Europe, bourses see broad-based gains, whilst sectors are mostly in the green with clear underperformance experienced in defensives, with Telecoms, Utilities, Healthcare and Staples at the foot of the bunch. On the flipside, Banks reap rewards from the uptick in yields, closely followed by Travel & Leisure, Autos & Parts and Retail. Renault (+4%) drives the gains in Autos after unveiling a prototype version of the Renault Master van that will go on sale next year. Travel & Leisure is bolstered by the ongoing reopening trade with potential tailwinds heading into the Christmas period. Retail meanwhile is boosted by Hugo Boss (+1.8%) topping forecasts and upgrading its guidance. Top European News Autumn Heat May Curb European Gas Demand, Prices Next Week Bollore Looking for Buyers for Africa Logistics Ops: Le Monde U.K. Offers Foreign Butchers Visas After 6,000 Pigs Culled Europe’s Car-Sales Crash Points to Worse Year Than Poor 2020 In FX, the Greenback was already losing momentum after a relatively tame bounce on the back of Thursday’s upbeat US initial claims data, and the index failed to sustain its recovery to retest intraday highs or remain above 94.000 on a closing basis. However, the Buck did reclaim some significant and psychological levels against G10, EM currencies and Gold that was relishing the benign yield environment and the last DXY price was marginally better than the 21 DMA from an encouraging technical standpoint. Nevertheless, the Dollar remains weaker vs most majors and in need of further impetus that may come via retail sales, NY Fed manufacturing and/or preliminary Michigan Sentiment before the spotlight switches to today’s Fed speakers featuring arch hawk Bullard and the more neutral Williams. GBP/NZD/NOK - Sterling has refuelled and recharged regardless of the ongoing UK-EU rift over NI Protocol, though perhaps in part due to the fact that concessions from Brussels are believed to have been greeted with welcome surprise by some UK Ministers. Cable has reclaimed 1.3700+ status, breached the 50 DMA (at 1.3716 today) and yesterday’s best to set a marginal new w-t-d peak around 1.3739, while Eur/Gbp is edging closer to 0.8450 having clearly overcome resistance at 1.1800 in the reciprocal cross. Similarly, the Kiwi continues to derive impetus from the softer Greenback and Aud/Nzd flows as Nzd/Usd extends beyond 0.7050 and the Antipodean cross inches nearer 1.0500 from 1.0600+ highs. Elsewhere, the Norwegian Crown is aiming to add 9.7500 to its list of achievements relative to the Euro with a boost from Brent topping Usd 85/brl at one stage and a wider trade surplus. CAD - The Loonie is also profiting from oil as WTI crude rebounds through Usd 82 and pulling further away from 1.5 bn option expiry interest between 1.2415-00 in the process, with Usd/Cad towards the base of 1.2337-82 parameters. EUR/AUD/CHF/SEK - All narrowly mixed and rangy vs the Greenback, or Euro in the case of the latter, as Eur/Usd continues to straddle 1.1600, Aud/Usd churn on the 0.7400 handle, the Franc meander from 0.9219 to 0.9246 and Eur/Sek skirt 10.0000 having dipped below the round number briefly on Thursday. In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures remain on a firmer footing, aided up the overall constructive risk appetite coupled with some bullish technical developments, as WTI Nov surpassed USD 82/bbl (vs 81.39/bbl low) and Brent Dec briefly topped USD 85/bbl (vs 84.16/bbl low). There has been little in terms of fresh fundamental catalysts to drive the price action, although Russia's Gazprom Neft CEO hit the wires earlier and suggested that reserve production capacity could meet the increase in oil demand, whilst a seasonal decline in oil consumption is possible and the oil market will stabilise in the nearest future. On the Iranian JCPOA front, Iran said it is finalising steps to completing its negotiating team but they are absolutely decided to go back to Vienna discussions and conclude the negotiations, WSJ's Norman. The crude complex seems to have (for now) overlooked reports that the White House is engaged in diplomacy" with OPEC+ members regarding output. UK nat gas prices were higher as European players entered the fray, but prices have since waned off best levels after Russian Deputy PM Novak suggested that gas production in Russia is running at maximum capacity. Elsewhere, spot gold has been trundling amid yield-play despite lower despite the Buck being on the softer side of today’s range. Spot gold failed to hold onto USD 1,800/oz status yesterday and has subsequently retreated below its 200 DMA (1,794/oz) and makes its way towards the 50 DMA (1,776/oz). LME copper prices are on a firmer footing with prices back above USD 10,000/t – supported by technicals and the overall risk tone, although participants are cognizant of potential Chinese state reserves releases. Conversely, Dalian iron ore futures fell for a third straight session, with Rio Tinto also cutting its 2021 iron ore shipment forecasts due to dampened Chinese demand. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 0.7% 8:30am: Sept. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1.8% 8:30am: Sept. Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.5%, prior 2.5% 8:30am: Sept. Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.3%, prior 2.0% 8:30am: Oct. Empire Manufacturing, est. 25.0, prior 34.3 8:30am: Sept. Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.6%, prior -0.3%; YoY, est. 9.4%, prior 9.0% 8:30am: Sept. Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.4%; YoY, prior 16.8% 10am: Aug. Business Inventories, est. 0.6%, prior 0.5% 10am: Oct. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 4.7%, prior 4.6%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 3.0% 10am: Oct. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 73.1, prior 72.8 10am: Oct. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 81.2, prior 80.1 10am: Oct. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 69.1, prior 68.1 DB's Jim Ried concludes the overnight wrap A few people asked me what I thought of James Bond. I can’t say without spoilers so if anyone wants my two sentence review I will cut and paste it to all who care and reply! At my age I was just impressed I sat for over three hours (including trailers) without needing a comfort break. By the time you email I will have also listened to the new Adele single which dropped at midnight so happy to include that review as well for free. While we’re on the subject of music, risk assets feel a bit like the most famous Chumbawamba song at the moment. They get knocked down and they get up again. Come to think about it that’s like James Bond too. Yesterday was a strong day with the S&P 500 (+1.71%) moving back to within 2.2% of its all-time closing high from last month. If they can survive all that has been thrown at them of late then one wonders where they’d have been without any of it. The strong session came about thanks to decent corporate earnings releases, a mini-collapse in real yields, positive data on US jobless claims, as well as a further fall in global Covid-19 cases that leaves them on track for an 8th consecutive weekly decline. However, inflation remained very much on investors’ radars, with a range of key commodities taking another leg higher, even as US data on producer prices was weaker than expected. Starting with the good news, the equity strength was across the board with the S&P 500 experiencing its best daily performance since March, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (+1.20%) also put in solid gains. It was an incredibly broad-based move higher, with every sector group in both indices rising on the day, with a remarkable 479 gainers in the S&P 500, which is the second-highest number we’ve seen over the last 18 months. Every one of the 24 S&P 500 industry groups rose, led by cyclicals such as semiconductors (+3.12%), transportation (+2.51%) and materials (+2.43%). A positive start to the Q3 earnings season buoyed sentiment, as a number of US banks (+1.45%) reported yesterday, all of whom beat analyst estimates. In fact, of the nine S&P 500 firms to report yesterday, eight outperformed analyst expectations. Weighing in on recent macro themes, Bank of America Chief, Brian Moynihan, noted that the current bout of inflation is “clearly not temporary”, but also that he expects consumer demand to remain robust and that supply chains will have to adjust. I’m sure we’ll hear more from executives as earnings season continues today. Alongside those earnings releases, yesterday saw much better than expected data on the US labour market, which makes a change from last week’s underwhelming jobs report that showed the slowest growth in nonfarm payrolls so far this year. In terms of the details, the weekly initial jobless claims for the week through October 9, which is one of the most timely indicators we get, fell to a post-pandemic low of 293k (vs. 320k expected). That also saw the 4-week moving average hit a post-pandemic low of 334.25k, just as the continuing claims number for the week through October 2 hit a post-pandemic low of 2.593m (vs. 2.670m expected). We should get some more data on the state of the US recovery today, including September retail sales, alongside the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for October. That optimism has fed through into Asian markets overnight, with the Nikkei (+1.43%), the Hang Seng (+0.86%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.29%) and the KOSPI (+0.93%) all moving higher. That came as Bloomberg reported that China would loosen restrictions on home loans amidst the concerns about Evergrande. And we also got formal confirmation that President Biden had signed the debt-limit increase that the House had passed on Tuesday, which extends the ceiling until around December 3. Equity futures are pointing to further advances in the US and Europe later on, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.30%) and the STOXX 50 (+0.35%) both moving higher. Even with the brighter news, inflation concerns are still very much with us however, and yesterday in fact saw Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (+1.16%) advance to yet another record high, exceeding the previous peak from early last week. That was partly down to the continued rise in oil prices, with WTI (+1.08%) closing at $81.31/bbl, its highest level since 2014, just as Brent Crude (+0.99%) hit a post-2018 high of $84.00/bbl. Both have posted further gains this morning of +0.58% and +0.61% respectively. Those moves went alongside further rises in natural gas prices, which rose for a 3rd consecutive session, albeit they’re still beneath their peak from earlier in the month, as futures in Europe (+9.14%), the US (+1.74%) and the UK (+9.26%) all moved higher. And that rise in Chinese coal futures we’ve been mentioning also continued, with their rise today currently standing at +13.86%, which brings their gains over the week as a whole to +39.02% so far. As well as energy, industrial metals were another segment where the recent rally showed no sign of abating yesterday. On the London metal exchange, a number of multi-year milestones were achieved, with aluminum prices (+1.60%) up to their highest levels since 2008, just as zinc prices (+3.73%) closed at their highest level since 2018. Separately, copper prices (+2.56%) hit a 4-month high, and other winners yesterday included iron ore futures in Singapore (+1.16%), as well as nickel (+1.99%) and lead (+2.43%) prices in London. With all this momentum behind commodities, inflation expectations posted further advances yesterday. Indeed, the 10yr US Breakeven closed +1.0bps higher at 2.536%, which is just 3bps shy of its closing peak back in May that marked its highest level since 2013. And those moves came in spite of US producer price data that came in weaker than expected, with the monthly increase in September at +0.5% (vs. +0.6% expected). That was the smallest rise so far this year, though that still sent the year-on-year number up to +8.6% (vs. +8.7% expected). That rise in inflation expectations was echoed in Europe too, with the 10yr UK breakeven (+5.6bps) closing at its highest level since 2008, whilst its German counterpart also posted a modest +0.7bps rise. In spite of the rise in inflation expectations, sovereign bonds posted gains across the board as the moves were outweighed by the impact of lower real rates. By the end of yesterday’s session, yields on 10yr Treasuries were down -2.6bps to 1.527%, which came as the 10yr real yield moved back beneath -1% for the first time in almost a month. Likewise in Europe, yields pushed lower throughout the session, with those on 10yr bunds (-6.3bps), OATs (-6.2bps) and BTPs (-7.1bps) all moving aggressively lower. To the day ahead now, and US data releases include September retail sales, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for October, and the Empire State manufacturing survey for October. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bullard and Williams, and earnings releases include Charles Schwab and Goldman Sachs. Tyler Durden Fri, 10/15/2021 - 07:50.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytOct 15th, 2021

As the NFT Market Explodes Again, Artists Fend Off Old Art-World Power Structures

NFT sales exploded in August, hitting twice the levels of the first wave back in the spring On Sept. 13, Monica Rizzolli sat in her room in São Paulo and watched her net worth grow by $5.4 million in 48 minutes. Rizzolli is not a day trader or a gambler. She’s an artist whose work consists of sun-kissed petals and wind-whipped blizzards, all created digitally. That day, she was selling a 1,024-piece collection in an auction on the NFT art platform Art Blocks. And despite her relative lack of renown outside of Brazil, the response was emphatic, with collectors shelling out thousands while feverishly discussing color and pattern on the social-messaging app Discord. “Haven’t seen any where the colors don’t blend perfectly,” wrote one. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] Rizzolli’s success in that September auction is just one of many examples that disprove the epitaphs written for the NFT market after it receded from its dizzying peak this spring. In March, the artist Beeple sold an NFT collection for $69 million at an auction at Christie’s, provoking astonishment from the outside world. Many were quick to write it off as a blip when the market shrank in May, dropping 90% from its peak. “Who could have seen this coming other than basically anyone?” the website Gizmodo taunted. But the death of NFTs was greatly exaggerated. After lying dormant for a couple of months, NFT sales exploded in August, hitting twice the levels of the first NFT mania back in the spring. Legacy institutions like Visa, Marvel and Major League Baseball jumped into the game, bestowing legitimacy; celebrities like Tom Brady and Doja Cat hypercharged excitement with their own ventures. None of this came as a surprise to those who have been involved in the cryptocurrency space for years. The market, like many others, is inherently choppy, with vicious boom-and-bust cycles that have investors hanging on for dear life, even in boom times. As the NFT art world grows in fits and starts, entrepreneurs, technologists and artists like Rizzolli are taking on the messy work of building a different kind of space: one that prioritizes artists, technological and aesthetic breakthroughs, more resilient systems and community building. NFTs have already spurred the popularity and growth of a fascinating digital art form—generative art—and shifted the discussion around artists’ rights and royalties. This time around, we have an opportunity to flip things around and bring more balance into the systemRead More: Digital NFT Art Is Booming—But at What Cost? But while there has been astonishing innovation, other entrenched frameworks have proved harder to disrupt, with wealth still pooling in the hands of a few, and women and artists of color struggling to find their footing. “White men have the advantage from the very start in crypto; it’s obvious that they’re the first to build up the space,” the Panamanian artist Itzel Yard says. “This time around, we have an opportunity to flip things around and bring more balance into the system.” This fight for balance—between those focused on wealth and those focused on radical change—will continue as the technology hurtles toward mainstream adoption. Courtesy Liam VriesVintage Mozart’s The Children With No Name: Eden sold for about $900 in July At its base level, an NFT, or nonfungible token, is simply a file type. But unlike a traditional PDF or JPEG, NFTs are “minted” on the blockchain—a tamper-resistant, decentralized digital public ledger that also supports cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Dogecoin. And each NFT is unique, with a bit of code that proves its authenticity, making it easier than ever to put a value on digital goods. Over the past year, NFTs have been made out of basketball trading cards (NBA Top Shot has raked in $720 million), music (Kings of Leon made $2 million from NFT sales on an album) and a tweet (Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey’s first, for $2.9 million). TIME also recently launched an NFT initiative, selling works by selected artists. This spring, art lay at the center of the NFT boom. But much of that art was, frankly, bad: shrines to cryptocurrency champion Elon Musk, 3-D emojis, mimicry of brand signifiers like Gucci or Marvel, conceptual gimmicks like a $1.3 million single pixel. “There are a lot of people for whom the only context they have for NFTs are vulgar displays of wealth,” the technologist Mat Dryhurst said in March. There are still plenty of crude art projects and buyers in it purely for the money. Dozens of cartoonish collectible series, for instance, have been created with the hopes of replicating the fervor surrounding -CryptoPunks, an immensely popular set of pixelated collectible characters. But many others are flocking toward a more ambitious medium: generative art, created by artists who tweak complex bits of code to create dozens or hundreds of works that riff on a theme. Artists use code to create psychedelic patterns, spastic glitchy videos, industrial landscapes and projection mapping. Hundreds of those artists have found a home on Art Blocks. When Erick Calderon launched the platform late last year, he hoped to make crypto-art more financially accessible, showcase artists whose work would match the complexity of anything in the physical modern art world and cater to the cryptocommunity’s desire for scarcity and unpredictability. “I thought people would like the idea of performing part of the art process—and being presented with a tiny piece of the artist’s brain,” he says. There’s a lot of collectors that think about this as a business—and they see white men as the more secure investmentRead More: Teen Artists Are Making Millions on NFTs. How Are They Doing It? Art Blocks has thrived: the platform raked in $243 million in sales in September, making it the most popular NFT art platform and the second most popular NFT platform overall during that time span, according to Crypto-Slam. Ironically, Art Blocks’ runaway success has made its curated auctions way too expensive for most aspiring collectors. But the community has still filled up with rabid devotees who aren’t buying up the art to simply flip it later. One of them, Meredith Schipper, is an interior designer based in Houston with a lively side hustle as an NFT collector and trader with at least 90 artworks to her name. Schipper minted one of Rizzolli’s works for 3.5 ethereum—or roughly $11,900 at the time of auction and far above the auction’s price floor—because she says she loved the artwork and was sick of missing out in the past. “In previous auctions, entire collections have been minted in under two minutes,” she says. Of her experience in the NFT space, Schipper says, “It’s probably the greatest thing that’s ever happened to me. Everyone’s so positive; it makes me feel special and awesome.” Nearly 5,000 miles away in her São Paulo home studio, Rizzolli didn’t even realize she was about to make a fortune. “I’m laughing to myself,” she said a couple hours later. “I hope I will be able to dedicate myself much more: to have good equipment and tranquility. I also want to develop something in the educational field here in Brazil—to return some of this to the community.” With increasingly impressive artwork emerging from the NFT space, gallerists and curators have scrambled to create new spaces to display them. Some of them are in the physical world: an early NFT gallery popped up in downtown Manhattan in April, and Art Blocks just staged its first physical open house in Marfa, Texas. Courtesy Meredith SchipperA screenshot of the collector Meredith Schipper’s virtual gallery Others are attempting to coax curious outsiders into their virtual spaces. Schipper recently set up a virtual gallery, and has delighted in meeting other gallery owners on her pixelated block. Another hub for artists, NFT Oasis, can be accessed for free via an app or through a VR headset, and includes art walks through serene pixelated galleries and concerts from artists like Imogen Heap. Across the board, NFT practitioners say that community is an essential draw of the technology: “It’s like a huge neighborhood where we all kind of know each other,” says Yard, who just a couple of years ago was walking dogs to make ends meet; she has since made $216,000 in sales on the platform Foundation. NFT artists like Yard connect on Discord and Clubhouse, and they have flocked to create decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), a relatively new type of organizational structure that many believe will be the Internet age’s answer to the LLC or the corporation. But while some NFT enthusiasts see a vast, unlimited future, others—women and people of color in particular—have already hit familiar walls. Yard’s rise is a rare success story in an upper echelon dominated overwhelmingly by white men. “There’s a lot of collectors that think about this as a business—and they see white men as the more secure investment,” she says. There isn’t ample data documenting race in the NFT art world, but one study indicates the space has failed to live up to the egalitarian economic promise inherent in crypto’s decentralized nature. For the past couple of years, the artist Sparrow Read and the data scientist Massimo Franceschet have been collecting data from the popular NFT platform SuperRare, and found that revenue generated on the platform has flowed toward a very small group of wealthy artists and collectors. As of June 15, 80% of the platform’s sale volume was dominated by 15% of the richest sellers. “Everyone believes that everyone’s intentions were to create more equality, more opportunity for artists,” Read says. “It feels like nobody wants to say that we are not achieving that.” Read More: NFTs Are Shaking Up the Art World—But They Could Change So Much More While the larger NFT world skews very white and male, women and artists of color are forming their own communities to fight bias and create more opportunities. One of Yard’s friends and protégés, 17-year-old Diana Sinclair, co-founded the herstoryDAO in April for Black female crypto artists. For Juneteenth, they partnered with the NFT platform Foundation to put on an exhibit called “Digital Diaspora,” featuring artwork from prominent artists like Yard and Blacksneakers, with a portion of the proceeds going to charity. But the auction failed to garner even half of what herstoryDAO had projected based on the previous value of the artists’ works. “It was really shocking: there was so much support on social media, but collectors weren’t keen to support us financially,” Sinclair says. When the “Digital Diaspora” auction took place, the NFT market was close to its nadir: NFT art sales for that week were under $4 million, according to Nonfungible. Since then, however, that figure has increased steadily, hitting $84 million the week of Oct. 5. Virtually every other metric tracked by Nonfungible has also increased, including the number of unique buyers active at one time and the number of primary and secondary sales. A second-quarter study from DappRadar in September showed that mass adoption of NFTs is under way, lessening the reliance on deep-pocketed whales; gaming NFTs and collections like the Bored Ape Yacht Club have particularly thrived. Sinclair believes that while the space has agonizing flaws, its communal nature and collaborative spirit could allow for positive change that might have been impossible in the traditional art and finance worlds. Concerns about the immense amount of energy it requires to mint an NFT, for example, have led to the creation of more energy-efficient platforms like Tezos and Palm, which are gaining in popularity. (Ethereum, too, has made its long-awaited conversion to a more energy-efficient system.) Groups that have formed in the past year—like the Mint Fund, Friends With Benefits and the African NFT Community—are using their collective power to create tools and grant funds for underresourced artists. Sinclair is in the NFT world for the long haul, and hopes to learn more about investing so she can have more power in a world that up to now looks a lot like the old one. “The space is too new for anything to be solidified,” she says. “We have more ideas, more plans and a lot more work to do.” —With reporting by Julia Zorthian.....»»

Category: topSource: timeOct 15th, 2021

The Elizabeth Holmes trial: The defense gets smacked down twice in one day

Attorneys for the Theranos founder tried - and failed - to ban the reporter John Carreyrou from the trial. Plus: jurors are eyeing the exits. Attorneys for the Theranos founder tried - and failed - to bar the reporter John Carreyrou from the trial. Gilbert Carrasquillo/Getty Images; Michael Loccisano/Getty Images; Samantha Lee/Insider Prosecutors and defense attorneys are battling over Elizabeth Holmes in her fraud trial, but the news media is also an active litigant in the proceedings. Journalists and their publications have argued three separate matters before the court, reflecting both the high-profile nature of the case and the prominent role that journalism played in the demise of Theranos.The best-known journalist by far on all things Theranos is John Carreyrou, the former Wall Street Journal reporter who broke the story about its deceptions and then wrote the best-selling "Bad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup." Carreyrou is a central figure in the saga. He was a thorn in the side of the company before its collapse. In his podcast, "Bad Blood: The Final Chapter," he is an unapologetic antagonist of Holmes, focusing on the voluminous evidence of her guilt and her efforts to evade accountability.In return, Holmes' lawyers have exacted a bit of revenge on Carreyrou. By adding him to their list of possible witnesses, they subjected him to a gag order that prevented him from discussing the case with anyone but his lawyer and barred him from even attending the trial when other "fact witnesses" are testifying. That was a bitter pill for a reporter who was missing out on the coda of his career-defining story.But Carreyrou, always pugnacious in his reporting, fought back in court as well. He filed a motion requesting an exemption from the gag order and his courtroom ban, based on his First Amendment rights as a journalist. His lawyer's brief noted that Carreyrou was the only reporter on the Holmes witness list, and that the defense hadn't subpoenaed him to testify. Citing page after page of case law, the brief sniped at Holmes: "Other courts, when faced with such a cynical ruse, have rightly rejected it in favor of reporters' First Amendment interests."It's plainly laughable that Holmes' lawyers would call Carreyrou to testify. Whatever question marks they might hope to place on his reporting would pale in comparison with the mountain of embarrassing evidence the prosecution would elicit from him on cross-examination. A magistrate judge, Nathanael Cousins, held a hearing yesterday to settle the issue. He tried to seek a compromise, asking both sides to consider declaring Carreyrou an "expert witness" rather than a fact witness, which would permit him to attend the trial. But the defense refused to change its position.In the end, Carreyrou won a resounding victory. In his ruling from the bench, Cousins noted Carreyrou's "centrality" to the case and praised him for "providing a public service" with his reporting. He lifted both the gag order and the courtroom ban, allowing Carreyrou to attend the proceedings as he sees fit.The other journalist who filed a motion with the court is Roger Parloff, who wrote a flattering cover story about Theranos in Fortune magazine in 2014, a year before Carreyrou's exposé. (I was Parloff's colleague when he published his article but played no role in the piece.) Later, Parloff admirably published an extensive story documenting how he had been misled by Holmes. Parloff's articles have become a major plank in the government's case - prosecutors plan to call him as a witness, to demonstrate that Holmes lied to him to mislead investors.Parloff's case is different from Carreyrou's. Parloff already has provided notes and transcripts of his interview with Holmes to both the prosecution and the defense. And he plans to testify. What he objected to is that Holmes has subpoenaed him to present interview notes with other sources - a move his lawyer called a fishing expedition that violated Parloff's reporter's privilege.At yesterday's hearing, the magistrate also ruled in Parloff's favor. He specifically agreed with Parloff's fishing-expedition charge, calling the details Holmes was seeking to unearth "faux specificity." The score now stands at The Media 2, Holmes 0. Carreyrou, taking to Twitter, declared total victory. "I'm allowed back in the courtroom to cover the Elizabeth Holmes trial," he wrote, noting that Parloff also won his motion. "All in all, a good day for the press!"Jurors are eyeing the exitsThe third journalistic matter before the court was brought by a group called The Media Coalition, consisting of ABC News, Dow Jones, The New York Times, and other media outlets. The coalition has asked the court to unseal the written questionnaires provided by the jurors and alternate jurors in the trial. During a hearing over Zoom on September 30, the group's lawyer, Steven Zansberg, argued that Judge Edward Davila was wrong to offer the jurors confidentiality, with a few exceptions regarding privacy and safety. The questionnaires, he insisted, are public information, and the public has a right to see them.The hearing wasn't particularly notable from a legal perspective. But it offered a rare opportunity to see the faces of all the principals in the case. In court, the judge wears a mask except when he's sipping from his coffee mug; the lawyers, who take off their masks when speaking, generally face away from those of us seated on the wooden benches behind them.Zansberg, who told the judge he was attending the hearing from an in-person gathering of the Media Law Conference, proudly held up a black mask with the slogan, "These are the only gag orders we support." Davila acknowledged that Zansberg had made his point. The conversation then digressed into a discussion about who is and isn't a reporter, from a legal perspective. "Who's a journalist?" the judge asked. "Does someone with a cellphone and a blog become a journalist?"Zansberg neatly sidestepped the issue by reminding the judge that his clients "are not appearing as the press" but "are appearing as the people." Indeed, there's no special treatment of the press in Davila's courtroom. Were he to allow media accreditation and reserve seats for reporters - as the US Supreme Court did in its first oral arguments of the coronavirus pandemic - we wouldn't have to queue up along with everyone else. (End of disgruntled aside.)After a ridiculous amount of back-and-forth, Davila met in his chambers with jurors who expressed qualms about their questionnaire being unsealed. Then he announced he would solicit additional briefs on the matter and hold yet another hearing in five to six weeks.The judge has every reason to delay his decision as long as possible. He has already excused two of the original 12 jurors since the trial began - one because serving conflicted with her work schedule, and another because she said that as a Buddhist, her commitment to love and forgiveness would make it impossible for her to punish Holmes. That leaves only three remaining alternates. The loss of additional jurors who feel spooked about the questionnaires could lead to a mistrial.Last week, another juror approached the judge about being excused. The woman, who appeared to be a professional in her 30s or 40s, offered two reasons to dismiss her. First, she said, she was in anguish over the possibility of sending Holmes to prison. "She's so young," she told Davila. "It's her future. I don't know if I'm 100% ready to participate in something like this." Second, she said, she didn't feel that her command of English was up to the responsibility. "Being English not my first language," she said, "I could make a mistake or something." The judge reminded her that any punishment Holmes received would be his job, not hers. She is required only to decide, based on the facts, whether Holmes is guilty of the charges she faces. It also became clear from their conversation that the juror's command of the English language was quite strong. She agreed to stay, and neither side asked for her to be excused. But prosecutors couldn't have been thrilled to hear of her sympathy for Holmes. If "she's so young" is what the jury is thinking at this point, it could presage a punishment-free future for the defendant.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 15th, 2021

James Gorman: We’re Seeing Fruits Of Long-Term Strategy

Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) Chairman & CEO James Gorman on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” (M-F, 9AM-11AM ET) today, Thursday, October 14th. Following is a link to video on CNBC.com: Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Morgan Stanley CEO Gorman: We’re Seeing Fruits Of […] Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) Chairman & CEO James Gorman on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” (M-F, 9AM-11AM ET) today, Thursday, October 14th. Following is a link to video on CNBC.com: if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Morgan Stanley CEO Gorman: We’re Seeing Fruits Of Long-Term Strategy JIM CRAMER: Chairman and CEO James Gorman. Welcome to “Squawk on the Street,” thank you for, for coming in to talk about how well your, your bank is doing. JAMES GORMAN: Happy to do it as long as you don't ask me to go on Jeopardy, Jim. CRAMER: No, we're gonna hold off on that. That's a different, different subject. But, you know what, you deserve to be on because, you know, what is the best wealth management business in the world. 300 billion in new money this year, what is happening that people can bring in 300 billion in wealth management? GORMAN: Yes, it's amazing. I mean the team's done an unbelievable job. The reality is we're managing, you know, over four trillion, nearly four and a half trillion and with success comes success. We have a lot of clients who feel very comfortable with the brand, the platform. The technology we've invested in through E*TRADE. I mean it's just, it's all come together. This has sort of been our dream for over a decade and finally we're seeing the fruits but I mean, 12 years ago or so, I think our assets were about 500 billion. So, they've gone up, eight, nine times in that period and as you know, this is very sticky money. It's a great business so we're thrilled. CRAMER: Well that's what we're going to talk about. At one point, Morgan Stanley before you came in, had what I regarded as episodic earnings. They’d be good, and then bad and good and bad and therefore it's very hard to give a price earnings multiple. The business that you're bringing in, including by the way E*TRADE, is really sticky and steadily growth, growth, secular growth. And I'm wondering what you when you sit around your board meetings, doesn't someone say, you know what, how come we're still at 12 times earnings because this is a secular growth story, it's not cyclical, I'm trying to understand why you're not given a greater price. GORMAN: Yeah, well it's getting there. I mean to be fair we were, you know, we were sub 10 and I thought that was just nuts. We’re now managing if you put wealth and asset management together, which gives us the balance, that's about six and a half trillion on that we're generating revenues of over 30 billion. Just that, and that's very sticky but on the other hand the investment bank and what it's done the resurgence of fixed income after it was restructured dramatically in 2015. You know, equities is number one, the investment bank itself and M&A is on fire, the equity underwriting. So, Jim, it’s this balance and speed concept that I've talked about, and, you know, we're starting to get the multiple. I mean we're getting the recognition, you look at some of the other pure wealth players in the marketplace, they're trading at, you know, 20, 30 times earnings, you know, we'd love a piece of that and I think our investors are starting to understand that so it's getting there. CRAMER: Well I think it is. I mean if you added buy now, pay later, I guess we get 30 times earnings. I’m always struggling about the love of Robinhood and how important it is and I want to stack that up against you and I want you to include a company that you bought at the time was called Solium but it's a company that you've made into Shareworks, who is a younger investment base and whose base is larger? GORMAN: Well first I have a lot of respect for Robinhood. I mean what they do introducing a lot of young investors to the marketplaces. I know you've said this and I believe that that's a good thing and as long as they’re prudently investing they understand the markets go up but they also go down then, you know, we're, they've got ,they've got a real winner so a lot of respect for what those guys have done. But, you know, we've sort of done the same thing but we've done it within the Morgan Stanley platform and brands so maybe it doesn't get that kind of recognition solely as a technology company. I mean that's basically 300 programmers they gave us an opportunity to get into the workplace space between Solium and E*TRADE and our existing business, we're touching over 30 million households and they’re wealthy households, right. There's significant money and by the way they want to borrow and they want to park their cash there, they're taking out mortgages, so it's got multiple verticals so if we can, we can go after to help these people find financial stability and that's what I'm really excited about. It's the combination of the traditional advisor model, the E*TRADE direct model and the solely Morgan Stanley workplace model. We're getting people at work, you're getting them online and you're getting them through an advisor and that to me is the magic mousetrap. DAVID FABER: James, it’s David. You know, I’m looking at your stock price which is not doing much of anything right now and I'm wondering, is it the perhaps because people think when it comes to capital markets, this thing just can't keep going at this rate. You pointed it out, of course, whether it's fixed income or now equities, you know, the outperformance of expectations, the percentage gains, year over year or from ’19. I don't know if you've ever seen anything like this in your career but can it continue at this rate? GORMAN: Oh, sure, sure it can and listen the market, you know, I don't have a problem when I see the market if our stock is at $100 I don’t know I haven't, I can’t look at the screen right now because I'm looking at your camera but we’re at that or about that, you know, we were $50 a year ago, the stock was up 34% I think in 2020 during COVID. We’re up 40 plus percent this year already. I mean it's, it's, you know, the market cap is over 180 billion it's had a phenomenal run, but there's a whole lot more to go. I mean if you, if you take that thread that Jim was pulling on about the mobile expansion and you take the fact that we built these enormous businesses that have huge scale advantages and, and to operate on a global basis, as you know, David in M&A and capital markets across borders, that's not an easy lift. You don't just turn up one day and say that's the business I want to be in. You got to build that over decades. So, I think they're incredibly resilient, the share gains that we've done through the institutional side, you know, have worked out great and I think it's gonna keep going. I'm really positive on the story— FABER: You do I mean because— GORMAN: We brought a market environment so— FABER: Right but we watch it no I mean, we're here at the New York Stock Exchange. We see the listings happen for a long time it was Chinese companies then it was SPACs then it was now it's just straight IPOs. That's one part of capital markets activity but you really expect that you're always, I mean that you're going to maintain these kinds of growth rates when it comes to equities under a fixed income for the next year or two? GORMAN: You know, yeah, we're not going to compound at this level but look at some of the other things going on, I mean you've got global GDP growth in pretty much every major economy in the world is going through global GDP growth. We've got enormous fiscal stimulus. We've got record low interest rates, people want to transact, you've got the, you know, the move from commercial lending to capital markets across all of Europe is still in the very early days so, you know, I'm not uncomfortable in saying we've got we clearly have a growth platform out there, whether it will be at the level we're seeing right now in M&A, obviously not. That's our pipeline suggests that's with us for a while to come, but that's not going to be, you know, over the next five years. We're not going to maintain that kind of growth, but the resilience of the model, the scale advantages, we've got the efficiency ratio now under 70%. I mean all these things are real, then when you double the dividend which we did, you're giving investors, you know, a 2.8% yield at 100 bucks. I mean that's not for nothing, right, and you're buying back about 3% of stocks so investors are getting a return of 7% before we get any of that through. CARL QUINTANILLA: James, one of the headlines from the call was about crypto where you said it's not a huge part of the business demand from our clients. Is that because it's early days, do you expect that to change? GORMAN: You know, Carl, you know, I’ve said this before I think crypto, you know, it's not a fad. It's not going away and obviously the blockchain technology supporting it is a real innovation. We're not seeing among very wealthy clients they might put, you know, I talked to people maybe 1% of their portfolio in it. Nobody's putting 10% of their portfolio into it. So, it's an interesting thing I mean a lot of people want to participate, they don't know how crypto is all really going to play out. I see, you know, Bitcoin this morning I think it's trading. I don't know 55,000, 60,000. So, a lot of people made a lot of money on it but it's not, it's not a core part of their diversification strategy. It's an option that they're playing out and with very wealthy people. Now with some of the younger folks, it's it's different. They, they're using, they've got less money at risk and frankly they're at a stage in life they can take more risks so you're seeing more, more interest at that level. E*TRADE had much more interest than the traditional Morgan Stanley client base. CRAMER: That makes sense. James, you have drawn a line in the sand with people coming to work, people showing up, being able to judge someone as a first-year associate, second year, third, very traditional and I've always felt very right. Pushback? People think that you're wrong, people not wanting to go to Morgan Stanley versus other places, what is the culture right now on this issue? GORMAN: Yeah, I don't think there's been a decision I've made that I haven't had some pushback it's, I tell people you don't get just the good bits of being a leader, you get the good and bad bits and some of it is people don't like it when you make decisions. And by the way that counts for everything from what you put in programming on the show to, you know, what's going on in politics. So that's okay, I can deal with that and, you know, fundamentally what I said was and, you know, the quote I use which got a lot of attention was, “If you can go to a restaurant, you can go to the office.” What I didn't say Jim was and you've got to be in the office five days a week forever. Clearly, we've moved to a more flexible work environment but we'd like to see people in and around their colleagues at least several days a week. I mean, let's that's how we do our best work, that's where our best innovation happens from bringing people together and training and developing them. I mean it's okay for me working from home. I've, I'm at the tail end of my career. For the kids who are 25, they want to be in and around and learn from the seniors so again we'll be flexible and we are being flexible, but we still want to see you in the office some of the time job dependent, etc. We've had some folks as you would imagine on the trading floor they’ve been in five days a week from the get go and that's what their job demanded. Client facing people have to do what the clients want, so we'll be flexible, but we're certainly intentional. I think it's very important to share your learning and development skills with the young kids. FABER: Yeah, I think there's no doubt. I do sense frustration from some of your peers, James, though in terms of people not showing up on Fridays and yet knowing at this point as you say flexibility is part of the allure for other employers and seems to be something that you simply have to provide regardless of whether you want to. Do you agree? GORMAN: I don't know. I mean, David, you know, it's interesting some of the early companies that came out and said, you can absolutely do whatever you like in terms of working, they've retracted from that. I mean it's not every employee gets to choose exactly how they work in the same way they don't choose how they get paid or when they get promoted. Now there's got to be a balance in this so you're not going to please everybody on this topic. What I've said is between now and the end of the year, we're still in the category of what can we do from a health and safety. In New York City, for example, we require you to be vaccinated to come into the buildings. Guess what? 96% of our employees are vaccinated and they showed us their attestation cards. Other parts of the world, they're not even open. Now, you know, Australia, where I grew up, I mean they've barely opened the economy up yet they're still, you know, in lockdown phases in different parts of the country. By 2022, ‘23, then we'll really see what the right model is by business group and then by individual. CRAMER: Well, I've got to tell you James, the stock is down which is a rare opportunity because this was a great quarter. My charitable trust owns it. We talk about it a lot when it comes to the CNBC Investing Club and I just can't thank you enough for coming on and explaining why your bank is different and positive and I think much better than almost everybody else in the industry. James Gorman, CEO of Morgan Stanley. GORMAN: Thanks, thanks guys and by the way, the stock being down it's not all bad news. We are in the middle of a big buyback program so I’m okay— FABER: There you go. Alright. Updated on Oct 14, 2021, 12:20 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkOct 14th, 2021

You can get 70% off of all CreativeLive classes through the end of October, including popular photography bootcamps for under $60

CreativeLive is currently offering discounts on individual online classes, in topics like Photoshop and design, as well as its Creator Pass. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more. CreativeLive offers over 2,000 online courses in photography, video, art, design, business, and more. MixMedia/Getty Images CreativeLive has over 2,000 online courses taught by experts in photography, art, video, and more. Classes are 70% off and you can get 20% off any Creator Pass subscription through October 31. Below are some of the most popular classes, including a Stanford course on designing your life. Online learners have many educational options like Udemy, Coursera, LinkedIn Learning, and edX, but creatives may find the most appealing classes at CreativeLive.The site houses over 2,000 classes taught by industry experts, and reportedly reaches over 10 million students. Each class falls under one of five categories: photo and video; art and design; music and audio; craft and maker; or money and life.As a CreativeLive student, you can watch on-air broadcasts for free for 24-hours a day, or buy an individual class and own it for life with the option to watch, rewind, and access bonus materials whenever. As part of a sitewide sale, all classes are currently 70% off through October 31 and if you spend $40 or more, you may get $20 off your order. You can also buy a Creator Pass (currently 20% off through October 31) to get access to as many classes as you want for an annual or monthly fee.If you're looking for a way to develop a creative habit, add industry know-how, or expand a creative business, then CreativeLive may be a tool worth considering. Below are 20 of the most popular courses among CreativeLive students:Descriptions provided by CreativeLive and edited for length. Fundamentals of Photography CreativeLive Fundamentals of photography, $18 (originally $199)As a photographer, you will need to master the technical basics of the camera and form an understanding of the types of equipment you need. The Fundamentals of Photography class will also teach something even more important (and crucial for success) — how to bring your creative vision to fruition.Taught by seasoned photographer John Greengo, who specializes in outdoor and travel photography, the Fundamentals of Photography places emphasis on quality visuals and experiential learning. In this course, you'll learn:How to bring together the elements of manual mode to create an evocative image: shutter speed, aperture, and image composition.How to choose the right gear and develop efficient workflow.How to recognize and take advantage of beautiful natural light. Designing Your Life: How to Build a Well-Lived, Joyful Life Marko Geber/Getty Images Designing Your Life: How to Build a Well-Lived, Joyful Life, $29 (originally $199)Do you feel stuck and anxious about the future? Do you feel like you should know what you want to do with your life but you aren't sure which direction to head? Stanford professors Bill Burnett and Dave Evans are joining us at CreativeLive to teach a class based on their #1 New York Times bestseller, "Designing Your Life: How to Build a Well-Lived, Joyful Life." How to Break the Habit of Self-Doubt and Build Real Confidence CreativeLive How to break the habit of self-doubt and build real confidence, $29 (originally $149)Mel Robbins is the most booked female speaker in the world, a serial entrepreneur, and a bestselling author. She is one of the most sought-after motivational instructors trusted by global brands to design and deliver life-changing, interactive experiences that inspire change, challenge thinking, and accelerate personal and professional growth.If you are plagued by imposter syndrome, suffer from anxiety or low self-esteem, or fall into the trap of self-pity that keeps you from seeing positive outcomes, you're definitely not alone.Mel will give you concrete, actionable advice and steps to overcome these problems and build the confidence to realize your dreams. After this class, you'll better understand your patterns, what to do to break unhealthy habits, act with courage, self-compassion, and overcome self-doubt so you can get what you want out of life. Posing 101 Jaysen Scott/Pexels Posing 101, $44 (originally $149)Posing is one of the fundamentals of great photography. It's also the thing that photographers have the least control over. We can choose our lenses, set up, lighting, and retouch with Adobe Photoshop. But when it comes to photography poses, we need to pay attention and work closely with our subjects to find the perfect pose and best way to capture the most flattering image.Fashion and portrait photographer Lindsay Adler will break down the fundamentals of perfect posing, giving you the basic rules you should follow to make your subjects and your photos look their best. Through live photo shoots and slides, Lindsay demonstrates the do's and don'ts for every category of subject, including men, women, older people, couples, brides and grooms, groups, and more. Adobe Photoshop 2020: The Complete Guide Bootcamp Getty Images Adobe Photoshop 2020: The Complete Guide Bootcamp, $59 (originally $199)Adobe Photoshop 2020 is a feature-rich creative force, perfect for turning raw ideas into audience-wowing images. With Ben Willmore as your guide, you can master it faster than you think and take on a new decade of projects.Ben takes you step-by-step through Adobe Photoshop 2020 as only he can. With an easy pace and zero technobabble, he demystifies this powerful program and makes you feel confident enough to create anything. This class is part of a fully-updated bundle – complete with 2020 features and more efficient ways to maximize the tools everyone uses most. Adobe Lightroom 2020: The Ultimate Guide Bootcamp David Bartus/Pexels Adobe Lightroom 2020: The Ultimate Guide Bootcamp, $18 (originally $199)Adobe Lightroom is the industry standard for post-production workflow and in Adobe Lightroom: The Ultimate Guide, you'll learn Jared Platt's gold standard for retouching and managing files quickly and efficiently.Jared will show the ins and outs of Lightroom Classic, Lightroom Mobile, and Lightroom Desktop. He'll demystify the difference between each and demonstrate when to use each one for maximum output.Jared will share tips on improving every phase of your workflow – from shooting to archiving. You'll learn how to take advantage of the latest Lightroom tools and features and become faster and more skilled at adjusting your images. 28 Days of Portrait Photography Marián Šicko/Pexels 28 Days of Portrait Photography, $29 (originally $199)Sue Bryce's 28 Days is the all-in-one portrait photography class that teaches you posing, shooting, marketing, selling, and everything else you need to know to run a successful contemporary portrait photography business. This series begins with two sessions of intense instruction on business, pricing, and overcoming your fears. Following the kickoff, Sue delivers short sessions exploring 28 different topics essential to any successful portrait photography studio. Sue covers flow posing, connecting with clients, posing and shooting groups, marketing to your key demographic, sales, and more. Speedlights 101 CreativeLive Speedlights 101, $14 (originally $49)This workshop will give you the confidence to incorporate small portable flash in your photography toolkit. From shooting receptions at weddings or adding drama in senior portraits, this workshop will include lots of live shooting examples that will help everything make sense. Once you start working with a portable flash, you'll never understand how you lived without it. Portraits Under Pressure CreativeLive Portraits under pressure, $18 (originally $99)Victoria Will's background as a photojournalist and celebrity photographer helped her develop techniques on editorial assignments to quickly connect with a subject. She'll show you how to use your environment to capture a unique image that reflects the person in the portrait. She'll also highlight how to quickly evaluate a less than perfect situation and make it work for you and your subject. You'll learn:Techniques for choosing the light, process, and locations for a successful portrait.How to build a rapport and utilize clear communication with your subjects.How to set up a developed concept, as well as how to light on the fly.Successful strategies for marketing yourself as a photographer and how to get your work in front of editors. Pricing and Sales for Photographers CreativeLive Pricing and sales for photographers, $14 (originally $49)In order to make money as a photographer, you have to know how to price, package, and sell your work. In this 3-day course, small business owner and award-winning portrait photographer Julia Kelleher will teach you how to create a strategic sales system — without relying on over-the-top, hard-selling sales techniques.By the end of this course, you will know how to predict your sales averages, forecast growth, and go from thinking about the next single sale to thinking about the next year of sales. Posing for Curvy Women CreativeLive Posing for curvy women, $14 (originally $49)Photographers are hired to capture portraits that accentuate the best features of their subjects. Fashion photographer Lindsay Adler will share techniques on how to photograph your full-figured and curvier clients by accentuating their lines and creating beautiful silhouettes.This class will cover: Styling suggestions for full-figured women including a bridal session.Camera angles and posing techniques for the most flattering images.Photoshop techniques to help highlight your curvy subject. Lighting & Posing Large Groups CreativeLive Lighting & posing large groups, $8 (originally $29)If you've photographed groups before, you know it can be a challenge. This class will answer your questions and cover the most important considerations to keep in mind for your next group session. You'll learn depth of field, lens choice, posing, focus considerations, light modifiers, light position, and more. Retouching for Interior Architectural Photography CreativeLive Retouching for interior architectural photography, $8 (originally $29)Images of architectural interiors present particular challenges for retouchers. In this class, architecture photographer Mike Kelley will show you how to use exposure blending, manual masking, advanced blemish removal, curve adjustments and other techniques to achieve stunning interior shots.You'll see how Mike overcomes extreme dynamic range, color casts from various sources, and difficult perspective issues to create a professional interior architectural photograph. Workflow, Time Management, and Productivity for Creatives CreativeLive Workflow, time management, and productivity for creatives, $14 (originally $49)Fine artist, illustrator, and author Lisa Congdon has worked with over 75 clients around the world including MoMA, REI Co-op, Harvard University, Martha Stewart Living, Chronicle Books, and Random House Publishing, among many others.In this class, she will teach you how to establish effective workflows and time management strategies that will streamline your processes and maximize creative work time.Among other things, you will learn:How to organize and implement a workflow system.How to manage to-do lists effectively.How to utilize time-blocking.How to identify and manage the distractions that keep you from being productive. The Headshot CreativeLive The headshot, $8 (originally $29)In this class, Peter Hurley, author of "The Headshot," reveals his methodology for capturing amazing headshot portraits.Hurley spent the last two years formulating these unique concepts into his highly anticipated book and will demonstrate how his simple techniques can help bring the best out of every person you photograph. His "squinching" phenomenon has gone viral and continues to have people using his signature lower lid move every time they step foot in front of a camera. Adobe Photoshop Mastery: Retouch and Restore CreativeLive Adobe Photoshop mastery: retouch and restore, $14 (originally $49)Photographs are among our most treasured possessions, but not every photo was shot under optimal conditions or preserved in an ideal way, which makes photo restoration a big business opportunity for skilled photographers and retouchers. If you want to answer every,"Can you fix it?" with a resounding "Yes," Adobe Photoshop Mastery with Ben Willmore is the class for you.You'll learn how to tackle:Advanced color correction and enhancement techniques.Retouching and scratch removal strategies.Detail enhancements.Folds, scratch, mildew, ink, and water stain repairs.Reconstruction of missing pieces such as torn corners and rips.How to fix faded images and make skin tones more lifelike.You'll also learn what actions to take, the optimal order to perform them, and which tools are right for the job. Ben will share time-saving tips and offer insights on the corrections that create the biggest impact. The Magic of Watercolor CreativeLive The magic of watercolor, $14 (originally $49)Join Molly Murrah for a fun, 5-week watercolor class for beginners. Learn about color, papers, brushes, drawing, and composition, as well as many great painting techniques that will get you working and playing with watercolors. The class will cover lessons such as paint properties, understanding color, the color wheel, mixing colors, light and shadow, and more. Color for Designers: Exploration, Theory, & Application CreativeLive Color for designers: exploration, theory, & application, $14 (originally $49)Our response to color comes from the place in our brain where trust, loyalty, behavior, and decision occur. Every successful project relies on a designer making smart choices about color.In this class, Richard Mehl will give you a foundational understanding of color theory principles and demonstrate how to apply them. Richard has studied alongside design legends like Paul Rand, Bradbury Thompson, and Herbert Matter, and will share insights gleaned from 12 years of teaching and writing about color in design.Richard takes an accessible approach to the serious study of color theory for designers. You'll be exposed to a relevant series of ideas and skills by exploring a range of analog and digital projects.Richard will discuss:Color terminology and meaning.How to view color in context.Contrast grids and color illusion. Tips for creating harmonious color palettes. Exploring Low-Key Portraiture CreativeLive Exploring low-key portraiture, $8 (originally $29)Learn how to shoot and retouch with shadows and dark tones in this class led by photographer Chris Knight. Students study how to maximize details in dark imagery through lighting and post-production. Chris will take you from concept through execution covering simple (yet effective) lighting techniques as well as tethering tips with Adobe Lightroom.He'll also discuss how to develop the raw image, as well as retouching tactics to make your image appear powerful and purposeful. Wedding Photography: Capturing the Story CreativeLive Wedding photography: capturing the story, $14 (originally $49)The emotional and physical energy of weddings makes for good photography, but a wedding photographer does more than simple, passive documentation of the revelry. Great wedding photography immortalizes the story of the event by combining a mastery of technical skills in a highly dynamic environment, and the social skills to put people at ease and capture genuine moments.Join Rocco Ancora and Ryan Schembri for this in-depth class on wedding photography and powerful storytelling. You'll learn:The fundamentals of shooting a wedding — lighting, exposure, and composition.How to maximize the use of natural and artificial light to create the mood.What to do once the wedding is over — image culling, album development, and sales.This class places heavy emphasis on developing strong posing and direction techniques and deploying them in a natural, non-confrontational manner. Rocco and Ryan believe that the job of the wedding photographer is to understand the story of the evening and to document it as a journalist would, with technical confidence and the mind on storytelling. All levels of wedding photographers will benefit from this class.  Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 14th, 2021

Rabobank: The Problem Is No Central Bank Can Bail Out The Physical Economy From Shortages

Rabobank: The Problem Is No Central Bank Can Bail Out The Physical Economy From Shortages By Michael Every of Rabobank Back in the days before infinite liquidity and markets being in love with the idea of being big just for the sake of it, there used to be discussion about the difference between extensive and intensive growth. Put simply, extensive growth is achieved by adding more inputs to get more output; intensive growth is achieved by getting more output from existing inputs - what we call ‘productivity’. Back in the old days, we used to have that too. Extensive vs. intensive comes to mind on the back of yet another stronger-than-expected US inflation print (0.4% m/m, 5.4% y/y; 0.2% m/m core, 4.0% y/y). This was followed by the White House announcing early results of its supply chain task force. The longshoreman and the short is: the Port of LA is expanding to 24/7 operation; the union has announced they are willing to work extra shifts; and large US companies are announcing they will use expanded hours to move more cargo off the docks, so ships can come to shore faster. So, crisis over? Not at all, in the view of supply-chain experts. Well before this announcement they had pointed out --as did we, in ‘In Deep Ship’-- that simply getting containers out of the terminal at LA achieves very little if you don’t the solve chassis crisis; if the containers sit there waiting for trucks; or for truckers; or for rail. All you do is move the logjam from sea to shore - and that can potentially make matters worse. The Transportation Secretary running this task force is a vocal opponent of the ‘so build a bigger road’ mentality that ends up with bigger roads and the same traffic logjam. This is the same policy idea without even spending on the cement and asphalt. Some are also asking why the White House bafflingly still hasn’t appointed a US Maritime Administrator yet. Others are asking how trying to facilitate more imports into the US, rather than banging the drum for localization and ‘just in case’, is compatible with Build Back Better and resiliency. But there is bipartisanship in failing to understand what is going wrong, and how to solve it. Florida Governor De Santis is offering his state’s ports as an alternative to LA when it isn’t practical; and a Californian Republican just introduced the SHIP Act to Congress to “ban cargo ships from idling or anchoring in the coastal waters of Southern California for the next 180 days”, so forcing dozens of vessels to hang around in the ocean for months rather than safely offshore. In short, we are seeing a lot of moving faster, and very little moving smarter. The Grinch will easily steal Xmas, and far more, at this rate.    Sailing on regardless, the FOMC minutes from the September 21-22 meeting said that an illustrative path of QE tapering designed to be simple to communicate and entailing a gradual, fixed reduction in net asset purchases of $10bn Treasuries and $5bn agency MBS, ending around the middle of next year, is seen as providing a straightforward and appropriate template that policymakers might follow. Of course, the Fed also noted that it could adjust the pace of tapering if economic developments were to differ substantially from what they expected – like both inflation and employment has so far, to no effect. In short, the Fed announced tapering in just a few weeks (November 3), and then actually start to taper from either mid-November or mid-December. Isn’t that fitting in a way? After all, there will almost certainly be far less *stuff* circulating in the US economy, so shouldn’t we match that with far less liquidity? Before you say yes, if you believe the Fed actually think like that, I have a port in New Mexico to sell you. They clearly have stock portfolios to worry about instead. Meanwhile, it wouldn’t be a day ending in a y without a new global supply-chain disruption. This time China is to stop exporting refined fuel. This is just as the rest of Asia is set to consume more, as it begins to open up again. As Bloomberg puts it, quoting Oilchem: “State-owned refiners are earning more from local sales”. Which is where arguments about localization and resiliency begin to re-emerge, for some. Staying with energy, Chinese coal prices are hitting new highs again, with this now set to be passed on to industry; by contrast, the EU are talking about tax cuts to help industry and consumers cope with rising electricity prices! Isn’t this strategy, albeit via wage increases, what we tried and failed with in the 1970s? It’s not that this is necessarily the wrong thing to do to avoid recession risks and social unrest – but it will only push prices even higher, and strain supply chains even more. Indeed, while all the headlines about the IEA’s annual energy report yesterday are naturally that we need to more than redouble our efforts to shift towards renewables, if you read the nastier details, there is also a need for massive investment in fossil fuels through to 2030. If that doesn’t arrive, high energy prices are here to stay, seems to be the message: like Xmas gifts, is it on the way though? And to some places, or everywhere? After slowing loan growth yesterday in China, and another far-higher-than-expected trade surplus, today saw Chinese inflation data. CPI came in at 0.7% y/y vs. 0.8% last month and the same expected for this. More importantly, PPI came in at 10.7% y/y vs. 9.5% last month and 10.5% expected. Recall that coal prices alone will push this series much, much higher ahead in theory. Staying with China, Bloomberg says “At this point, it’s no longer about salvaging the troubled China Evergrande Group or its billionaire chairman Hui Yan Ka from the debt crisis. It’s jobs, growth and, ultimately, social stability that are at stake. In other words, a bailout of the indebted developer may not be enough to underpin one of the world’s second-largest economy as payment defaults become contagious, a sales slump spreads to the whole sector, and more players see their ratings cut.” The argument is naturally parroted by Wall Street: sure, *pretend* to deal with asset bubbles, but you cannot really deal with them “because markets!” Yet Bloomberg also notes loosening policy slightly won’t change consumer psychology, and Beijing has made clear house prices are no longer going to be allowed to keep going up – so why buy a 2nd, 3rd, 4th home, etc., which accounted for 85% of recent home sales? So, we are looking at both deflation and inflation in China, vs. just inflation everywhere else. Moreover, we are back to extensive vs. intensive growth, which Wall Street no longer understands; just as it now fails to grasp Schumpeter; just as it utterly fails to read Marx. Don’t let that all stop the Street, or Chinese markets, perpetually pricing in bailouts and hockey sticks and “transitory” and Xmas every day, however. It’s all a generation of traders have known both East and West, so who can blame them? The problem is no central bank can bail out the physical economy from shortages. To wrap up, Aussie jobs data showed a -138K print, yet where unemployment went down to 4.6%, and only part-time jobs were apparently lost, not full-time. Extensive or intensive takes on such partial data are not really worth too much of anyone’s time. They certainly won’t be moving the RBA from not moving. Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 10:10.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 14th, 2021

Bank of America Spikes On Blowout Q3 Report: Record Advisory Fees, NIM Beats, Solid Loan Growth

Bank of America Spikes On Blowout Q3 Report: Record Advisory Fees, NIM Beats, Solid Loan Growth When JPMorgan kicked off Q3 earnings yesterday, investor ignored the solid top-line results driven by a surge in advisory and ibanking revenue, and instead were more concerned by the latest decline in consumer and commercial loans and the drop in FICC trading. Would Bank of America follow the same fate when it reported results today? Moments ago BofA reported Q3 earnings which like JPM beat on the top and bottom line, to wit: Revenue net of interest expense $22.77 billion, up 12% Y/Y, and beating the $21.78 billion expected EPS 85c, up 67% Y/Y and beating estimates of 71c Similar to JPM, BofA's benefited from a $1.1BN reserve release, a sharp reversal from the $0.4BN reserve build a year ago; it consisted of a $624MM benefit from credit losses vs. a provision of $1.39 billion year earlier and was sharply higher than the estimated recovery $175.2 million; Charge offs in Q3 amounted to just $0.5BN, half the amount a year ago. On the expense side, noninterest expense of $14.4B declined $0.6B, or 4%, from 2Q21, and was relatively flat YoY. The bank's efficiency ratio was 63% with operating leverage of approximately 1,200 bps. CEO Brian Moynihan reiterated optimistic macro views: “We reported strong results as the economy continued to improve and our businesses regained the organic customer growth momentum we saw before the pandemic. Deposit growth was strong and loan balances increased for the second consecutive quarter, leading to an improvement in net interest income even as interest rates remained low.” Drilling down on the income statement first, we find that just like JPM, BofA benefits from a surge in capital markets advisory activity even as the bank's result were also boosted from stronger than expected trading resulits: Net interest income $11.20 (FTE) billion, also beating the estimate of $10.65 billion, up 10%, driven by strong deposit growth and related investment of excess liquidity, as well as Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan activity Noninterest income of $11.7B increased $1.5B, or 14%, with growth across every business segment Sales and Trading revenue excluding DVA $3.63 billion, +8.8% y/y, estimate $3.27 billion FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $2.03 billion, estimate $1.86 billion; FICC revenue of $2.0B decreased 5%, driven by "a weaker trading environment for mortgage and interest rate products, partially offset by improved client flows in foreign exchange" Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $1.61 billion, estimate $1.41 billion, up 33%, "driven by growth in client financing activities, a stronger trading performance and increased client activity" While revenue were sharply higher, expenses rose just 5% to $3.3B driven by higher activity-based expenses. Finally, despite the increase in results, Q3's average VaR was $78MM, far below the $109 a year ago. BofA said that its global markets is on course for its best revenue performance in more than four years: Total sales and trading revenues currently stand at $12.3 billion, up $200 million year-on-year driven by the equities business. While capital markets were solid, it was another record print for advisory revenues after JPMorgan’s numbers yesterday. Bank of America’s advisory fee haul jumped 65% in the third quarter to an all-time high of $654 million. Some more details: total banking revenue of $5.2B increased $0.7B vs. 3Q20, "reflecting higher investment banking fees, higher leasing-related revenue, and strong deposit growth, which benefited NII. Total investment banking fees of $2.2B (excl. self-led) rose $400 million, or 23%, from 3Q20." As BofA notes, Q3 was the second best quarter for firm-wide fees post- merger, after 1Q21. Of course, bigger investment banking revenues means bigger bonuses for bankers. Non-interest expenses grew 7% in global banking to $2.5 billion in the quarter, which was “largely driven by higher revenue-related costs and continued investments in the franchise.” As with JPM, BofA is investing actively in fintech and digital adoption and the following slide summarized its latest progress here: Eslewhere, America looks reported revenue from wealth and investment management - an area where many of the world’s biggest banks are trying to boost business at the moment - reached a record $5.3 billion, up 17% year-on-year. Client balances, too, are at an all-time high of $3.7 trillion, a 6% increase driven by rising market valuations and strong inflows of funds. Stepping away from the Income Statement, BofA was a standout performer when it comes to its balance sheet, where it did manage to scratch out some loan growth in the quarter. The average loans and leases in its business segments rose to $903 billion, a 1.6% increase from the second quarter. It remains to be seen if that’s enough to please analysts and investors. In a separate positive sign, Bloomberg points to the credit card business which looks like it may have turned a corner. Average outstanding balances were up about 3% from the second quarter, to $75.6 billion. That’s the first quarter-over-quarter gain since before the pandemic. And here is another reason for shares to rally: unlike JPM, BofA net interest yield not only rose but was better-than-anticipated (BofA is regarded as a particularly interest-rate sensitive bank). Net interest yield of 1.68% rose 7 basis points from the second quarter, beating an estimate of 1.63%. Net interest income of $11.1B ($11.2B FTE) – increased $861MM from 2Q21 or 8.4%, "driven by deposit growth and related investment of liquidity, higher PPP NII due to loan forgiveness, lower premium amortization expense, higher loan balances, and one additional accrual day." The bank estimates (as of September 30) that a positive 100 bps parallel shift in the yield curve would benefit net interest income by $7.2 billion over the next 12 months. Bottom line, in a nearless flawless report, which unlike JPM saw growth across all loan segments and beat on Net Interest Income, Bank of America beat analysts’ earnings estimates as advisory fees soared, boosted by a record-breaking period for mergers and acquisitions. Investment-banking advisory fees rose 65% to $654 million in the third quarter as firms leaned on Bank of America to handle their debt and equity financing, and a combination of cheap financing for buyers and attractive valuations for sellers spurred a wave of takeovers. And so, when looking at the blowout Q3 report which included record advisory fees, stronger (and rising) NIM and loan growth, iut's not surprising to see BofA stock surging in the premarket, a far more forceful response than JPM's steady leak on Wednesday. Full Q3 investor presentation below (pdf link) The Presentation Materials(1) by Zerohedge on Scribd Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 07:49.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 14th, 2021

Futures Surge As Banks Report Stellar Earnings; PPI On Deck

Futures Surge As Banks Report Stellar Earnings; PPI On Deck US equity futures, already sharply higher overnight, jumped this morning as a risk-on mood inspired by stellar bank earnings, overshadowed concern that supply snarls. a China property crunch, a tapering Fed and stagflation will weigh on the global recovery. Nasdaq futures jumped 1%, just ahead of the S&P 500 which was up 0.9%. 10-year Treasury yields ticked lower to about 1.5%, and with the dollar lower as well, oil jumped. Bitcoin and the broader crypto space continued to rise. Shares in Morgan Stanley, Citi and Bank of America jumped as their deal-making units rode a record wave of M&A. On the other end, Boeing shares fell more than 1% after a Dow Jones report said the plane maker is dealing with a new defect on its 787 Dreamliner. Here are some of the biggest other U.S. movers today: Occidental (OXY US) rises 1.6% in U.S. premarket trading after it agreed to sell its interests in two Ghana offshore fields for $750m to Kosmos Energy and Ghana National Petroleum Plug Power (PLUG US) rises 3.3% premarket, extending gains from Wednesday, when it announced partnership with Airbus SE and Phillips 66 to find ways to harness hydrogen to power airplanes, vehicles and industry Esports Entertainment (GMBL US) shares rise 16% in U.S. premarket trading after the online gambling company reported its FY21 results and reaffirmed its FY22 guidance Perrigo  (PRGO US) gains 2.8% in premarket trading after Raymond James upgrades to outperform following acquisition of HRA Pharma and recent settlement of Irish tax dispute AT&T (T US) ticks higher in premarket trading after KeyBanc writes upgrades to sector weight from underweight, saying it seems harder to justify further downside from here Avis Budget (CAR US) may be active after getting its only negative rating among analysts as Morgan Stanley cuts to underweight with risk/reward seen pointing toward downside OrthoPediatrics (KIDS US) dipped 2% Wednesday postmarket after it said 3Q revenue was hurt by the surge in cases of Covid-19 delta variant and RSV within children’s hospitals combined with staff shortage Investors continue to evaluate the resilience of economic reopening to supply chain disruptions, a jump in energy prices and the prospect of reduced central bank support. In the earnings season so far, executives at S&P 500 companies mentioned the phrase “supply chain” about 3,000 times on investor calls as of Tuesday -- far higher than last year’s then-record figure. “Our constructive outlook for growth means that our asset allocation remains broadly pro-risk and we continue to be modestly overweight global equities,” according to Michael Grady, head of investment strategy and chief economist at Aviva Investors. “However, we have scaled back that position marginally because of growing pains which could impact sales and margins.” Europe's Stoxx 600 index reached its highest level in almost three weeks, boosted by gains in tech shares and miners. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose over 1% to best levels for the week. FTSE 100 rises 0.75%, underperforming at the margin. Miners and tech names are the strongest sectors with only healthcare stocks in small negative territory. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: THG shares advance as much as 10%, snapping a four-day losing streak, after a non-executive director bought stock while analysts at Goldman Sachs and Liberum defended their buy recommendations. Steico gains as much as 9.9%, the most since Jan., after the insulation manufacturer reported record quarterly revenue, which Warburg says “leaves no doubt” about underlying market momentum. Banco BPM climbs as much as 3.6% and is the day’s best performer on the FTSE MIB benchmark index; bank initiated at buy at Jefferies as broker says opportunity to internalize insurance business offers 9%-16% possible upside to 2023 consensus EPS and is not priced in by the market. Hays rises as much as 4.3% after the recruiter posted a jump in comparable net fees for the first quarter. Publicis jumps as much as 3.7%, the stock’s best day since July, with JPMorgan saying the advertising company’s results show a “strong” third quarter, though there are risks ahead. Kesko shares rise as much as 6.1%. The timing of this year’s third guidance upgrade was a surprise, Inderes says. Ubisoft shares fall as much as 5.5% after JPMorgan Cazenove (overweight) opened a negative catalyst watch, citing short-term downside risk to earnings ahead of results. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, boosted by a rebound in technology shares as traders focused on the ongoing earnings season and assessed economic-reopening prospects in the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%, as a sub-gauge of tech stocks rose, halting a three-day slide. Tokyo Electron contributed the most to the measure’s climb, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. closed up 0.4% ahead of its earnings release. India’s tech stocks rose following better-than-expected earnings for three leading firms in the sector. Philippine stocks were among Asia’s best performers as Manila began easing virus restrictions, which will allow more businesses in the capital to reopen this weekend. Indonesia’s stock benchmark rallied for a third-straight day, as the government prepared to reopen Bali to tourists. READ: Commodities Boom, Tourism Hopes Fuel Southeast Asia Stock Rally Ilya Spivak, head of Greater Asia at DailyFX, said FOMC minutes released overnight provided Asian markets with little direction, which may offer some opportunity for recouping recent losses. The report showed officials broadly agreed last month they should start reducing pandemic-era stimulus in mid-November or mid-December. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields stayed below 1.6%, providing support for tech stocks.  “Markets seemed to conclude the near-term narrative is on pause until further evidence,” Spivak said. Shares in mainland China fell as the country reported factory-gate prices grew at the fastest pace in almost 26 years in September. Singapore’s stock benchmark pared initial losses as the country’s central bank unexpectedly tightened policy. Hong Kong’s equity market was closed for a holiday In rates, Treasuries were steady to a tad higher, underperforming Bunds which advanced, led by the long end.  Fixed income is mixed: gilts bull steepen with short dates richening ~2.5bps, offering only a muted reaction to dovish commentary from BOE’s Tenreyro. Bunds rise with 10y futures breaching 169. USTs are relatively quiet with 5s30s unable to crack 100bps to the upside. Peripheral spreads widen slightly. In FX, the Turkish lira was again the overnight standout as it weakened to a record low after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired three central bankers. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell and the greenback slipped against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen, with risk-sensitive and resource-based currencies leading gains; the euro rose to trade above $1.16 for the first time in a week.  The pound rose to more than a two-week high amid dollar weakness as traders wait for a raft of Bank of England policy makers to speak. Sweden’s krona temporarily came off an almost eight-month high against the euro after inflation fell short of estimates. The euro dropped to the lowest since November against the Swiss franc as banks targeted large option barriers and leveraged sell-stops under 1.0700, traders said; Currency traders are responding to stagflation risks by turning to the Swiss franc. The Aussie advanced to a five-week high versus the greenback even as a monthly jobs report showed employment fell in September; the jobless rate rose less than economists forecast. The kiwi was a among the top performers; RBNZ Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said inflation pressures were becoming more persistent China’s yuan declined from a four-month high after the central bank signaled discomfort with recent gains by setting a weaker-than-expected reference rate. In commodities, crude futures extend Asia’s gains with WTI up ~$1 before stalling near $81.50. Brent regains a $84-handle. Spot gold drifts through Wednesday’s highs, adding $4 to print just shy of the $1,800/oz mark. Base metals are well bid with LME copper and aluminum gaining as much as 3%.  Looking at the day ahead, we’ve got central bank speakers including the Fed’s Bullard, Bostic, Barkin, Daly and Harker, the ECB’s Elderson and Knot, along with the BoE’s Deputy Governor Cunliffe, Tenreyro and Mann. Data releases from the US include the September PPI reading along with the weekly initial jobless claims. Lastly, earnings releases will include UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, US Bancorp and Walgreens Boots Alliance. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 4,382.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.9% to 464.38 MXAP up 0.7% to 196.12 MXAPJ up 0.6% to 642.66 Nikkei up 1.5% to 28,550.93 Topix up 0.7% to 1,986.97 Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 24,962.59 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,558.28 Sensex up 0.7% to 61,190.63 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,311.73 Kospi up 1.5% to 2,988.64 Brent Futures up 1.0% to $83.98/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,796.13 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.25% to 93.84 German 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to -0.143% Euro little changed at $1.1615 Brent Futures up 1.0% to $84.13/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg A flattening Treasury yield curve signals increasing concern Federal Reserve efforts to keep inflation in check will derail the recovery in the world’s largest economy China’s factory-gate prices grew at the fastest pace in almost 26 years in September, potentially adding to global inflation pressure if local businesses start passing on higher costs to consumers. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired monetary policy makers wary of cutting interest rates further, driving the lira to record lows against the dollar with his midnight decree Singapore’s central bank unexpectedly tightened its monetary policy settings, strengthening the local dollar, as the city-state joins policymakers globally concerned about risks of persistent inflation Shortages of natural gas in Europe and Asia are boosting demand for oil, deepening what was already a sizable supply deficit in crude markets, the International Energy Agency said A tropical storm that’s lashing southern China mixed with Covid-related supply chain snarls is causing a ship backlog from Shenzhen to Singapore, intensifying fears retail shelves may look rather empty come Christmas A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk A constructive mood was seen across Asia-Pac stocks with the region building on the mild positive bias stateside where the Nasdaq outperformed as tech and growth stocks benefitted from the curve flattening, with global risk appetite unfazed by the firmer US CPI data and FOMC Minutes that suggested the start of tapering in either mid-November of mid-December. The ASX 200 (+0.5%) traded higher as tech stocks found inspiration from the outperformance of US counterparts and with the mining sector buoyed by gains in underlying commodity prices. The Nikkei 225 (+1.5%) was the biggest gainer amid currency-related tailwinds and with the latest securities flow data showing a substantial shift by foreign investors to net purchases of Japanese stocks during the prior week. The KOSPI (+1.5%) conformed to the brightening picture amid signs of a slowdown in weekly infections, while the Singapore’s Straits Times Index (+0.3%) lagged for most of the session following weaker than expected Q3 GDP data, and after the MAS surprisingly tightened its FX-based policy by slightly raising the slope of the SGD nominal effective exchange rate (NEER). The Shanghai Comp. (U/C) was initially kept afloat but with gains capped after slightly softer than expected loans and financing data from China and with participants digesting mixed inflation numbers in which CPI printed below estimates but PPI topped forecasts for a record increase in factory gate prices, while there was also an absence of Stock Connect flows with participants in Hong Kong away for holiday. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher after the recent curve flattening stateside and rebound in T-notes with the US longer-end also helped by a solid 30yr auction, although gains for JGBs were capped amid the outperformance in Tokyo stocks and mostly weaker metrics at the 5yr JGB auction. Top Asian News Chinese Developer Shares Fall on Debt Crisis: Evergrande Update Japan’s Yamagiwa Says Abenomics Fell Short at Spreading Wealth China Seen Rolling Over Policy Loans to Keep Liquidity Abundant Malaysia’s 2020 Fertility Rate Falls to Lowest in Four Decades Bourses in Europe have modestly extended on the upside seen at the European cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1%; Stoxx 600 +0.9%) in a continuation of the firm sentiment experienced overnight. US equity futures have also conformed to the broader upbeat tone, with gains seen across the ES (+0.7%), NQ (+0.8%), RTY (+0.8%) and YM (+0.7%). The upside comes despite a lack of overly pertinent newsflow, with participants looking ahead to a plethora of central bank speakers. The major indices in Europe also see a broad-based performance, but the periphery narrowly outperforms, whilst the SMI (Unch) lags amid the sectorial underperformance seen in Healthcare. Overall, the sectors portray somewhat of a cyclical tilt. The Basic Resources sector is the clear winner and is closely followed by Tech and Financial Services. Individual moves are scarce as price action is largely dictated by the macro picture, but the tech sector is led higher by gains in chip names after the world's largest contract chipmaker TSMC (+3.1% pre-market) reported strong earnings and upgraded its revenue guidance. Top European News German 2021 Economic Growth Forecast Slashed on Supply Crunch U.K. Gas Shipper Stops Supplies in Another Blow to Power Firms Christmas Toy Shortages Loom as Cargo Clogs a Major U.K. Port Putin Is Back to Building Financial Fortress as Reserves Grow In FX, the Dollar and index by default have retreated further from Tuesday’s 2021 peak for the latter as US Treasury yields continue to soften and the curve realign in wake of yesterday’s broadly in line CPI data and FOMC minutes that set the schedule for tapering, but maintained a clear differential between scaling down the pace of asset purchases and the timing of rate normalisation. Hence, the Buck is losing bullish momentum with the DXY now eying bids and downside technical support under 94.000 having slipped beneath an early October low (93.804 from the 5th of the month vs 93.675 a day earlier) and the 21 DMA that comes in at 93.770 today between 94.090-93.754 parameters before the next IJC update, PPI data and a heavy slate of Fed speakers. NZD/AUD - No real surprise that the Kiwi has been given a new lease of life given that the RBNZ has already taken its first tightening step and put physical distance between the OCR and the US FFR, not to mention that the move sparked a major ‘sell fact’ after ‘buy rumour’ reaction. However, Nzd/Usd is back on the 0.7000 handle with additional impetus via favourable tailwinds down under as the Aud/Nzd cross is now nearer 1.0550 than 1.0600 even though the Aussie is also taking advantage of the Greenback’s fall from grace to reclaim 0.7400+ status. Note, Aud/Usd may be lagging somewhat on the back of a somewhat labour report overnight as the employment tally fell slightly short of expectations and participation dipped, but the jobless rate fell and full time jobs rose. Moreover, RBA Deputy Governor Debelle repeated that circumstances are different for Australia compared to countries where policy is tightening, adding that employment is positive overall, but there is not much improvement on the wage front. CAD/GBP/CHF - The next best majors in terms of reclaiming losses vs their US counterpart, with the Loonie also encouraged by a firm bounce in oil prices and other commodities in keeping with a general recovery in risk appetite. Usd/Cad is under 1.2400, while Cable is now over 1.3700 having clearly breached Fib resistance around 1.3663 and the Franc is probing 0.9200 for a big figure-plus turnaround from recent lows irrespective of mixed Swiss import and producer prices. EUR/JPY - Relative laggards, but the Euro has finally hurdled chart obstacles standing in the way of 1.1600 and gradually gathering impetus to pull away from decent option expiry interest at the round number and just above (1.5 bn and 1 bn 1.1610-20), and the Yen regrouping around the 113.50 axis regardless of dovish BoJ rhetoric. In short, board member Noguchi conceded that the Bank may have little choice but to extend pandemic relief support unless it becomes clear that the economy has returned to a pre-pandemic state, adding that more easing may be necessary if the jobs market does not improve from pent-up demand, though he doesn't see and immediate need to top up stimulus or big stagflation risk. In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are continuing the grind higher seen since the European close yesterday as the risk tone remains supportive and in the aftermath of an overall bullish IEA oil market report. The IEA upgraded its 2021 and 2022 oil demand forecasts by 170k and 210k BPD respectively, which contrasts the EIA STEO and the OPEC MOMR – with the former upping its 2021 but cutting 2022 forecast, whilst the OPEC MOMR saw the 2021 demand forecast cut and 2022 was maintained. The IEA report however noted that the ongoing energy crisis could boost oil demand by 500k BPD, and oil demand could exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2022. On this, China has asked Russia to double electricity supply between November-December. The morning saw commentary from various energy ministers, but perhaps the most telling from the Russian Deputy PM Novak who suggested Russia will produce 9.9mln BPD of oil in October (in-line with the quota), but that Russia has no problem in increasing oil output which can go to 11.3mln BPD (Russia’s capacity) and even more than that, but output will depend on market situation. Long story short, Russia can ramp up output but is currently caged by the OPEC+ pact. WTI Nov extended on gain about USD 81/bbl to a current high of USD 81.41/bbl (vs 80.41/bbl low) while its Brent counter topped USD 84.00/bbl to a USD 84.24/bbl high (vs 83.18/bbl low). As a reminder, the weekly DoEs will be released at 16:00BST/11:00EDT on account of the Columbus Day holiday. Gas prices have also moved higher in intraday, with the UK Nat Gas future +5.5% at the time of writing. Returning to the Russian Deputy PM Novak who noted that Nord Stream 2 will be ready for work in the next few days, still expects certification to occur and commercial supplies of gas via Nord Stream 2 could start following certification. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver have been drifting higher as the Buck wanes, with spot gold topping its 200 DMA (1,7995/oz) and in striking distance of its 100 DMA (1,799/oz) ahead of the USD 1,800/oz mark. Over to base metals, LME copper is again on a firmer footing, owing to the overall constructive tone across the market. Dalian iron ore meanwhile fell for a second straight day in a continuation of the downside seen as Beijing imposed tougher steel output controls for winter. World Steel Association also cut its global steel demand forecast to +4.5% in 2021 (prev. forecast +5.8%); +2.2% in 2022 (prev. forecast 2.7%). US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.7%; YoY, est. 8.6%, prior 8.3% 8:30am: Sept. PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.6%; YoY, est. 7.1%, prior 6.7% 8:30am: Sept. PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%; YoY, est. 6.5%, prior 6.3% 8:30am: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 320,000, prior 326,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.67m, prior 2.71m 9:45am: Oct. Langer Consumer Comfort, prior 53.4 Central Banks 8:35am: Fed’s Bullard Takes Part in Virtual Discussion 9:45am: Fed’s Bostic Takes Part in Panel on Inclusive Growth 12pm: New York Fed’s Logan Gives Speech on Policy Implementation 1pm: Fed’s Barkin Gives Speech 1pm: Fed’s Daly Speaks at Conference on Small Business Credit 6pm: Fed’s Harker Discusses the Economic Outlook DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Inflation dominated the conversation yet again for markets yesterday, after another upside surprise from the US CPI data led to the increasing realisation that we’ll still be talking about the topic for some time yet. Equities were pretty subdued as they looked forward to the upcoming earnings season, but investor jitters were evident as the classic inflation hedge of gold (+1.87%) posted its strongest daily performance since March, whilst the US dollar (-0.46%) ended the session as the worst performer among the G10 currencies. Running through the details of that release, headline US consumer prices were up by +0.4% on a monthly basis in September (vs. +0.3% expected), marking the 5th time in the last 7 months that the figure has come in above the median estimate on Bloomberg, though core prices were in line with consensus at +0.2% month-over-month. There were a number of drivers behind the faster pace, but food inflation (+0.93%) saw its biggest monthly increase since April 2020. Whilst some pandemic-sensitive sectors registered soft readings, housing-related prices were much firmer. Rent of primary residence grew +0.45%, its fastest pace since May 2001 and owners’ equivalent rent increased +0.43%, its strongest since June 2006. These housing gauges are something that Fed officials have signposted as having the potential to provide more durable upward pressure on inflation. The CPI release only added to speculation that the Fed would be forced to hike rates earlier than previously anticipated, and investors are now pricing in almost 4 hikes by the end of 2023, which is over a full hike more than they were pricing in just a month earlier. In response, the Treasury yield curve continued the previous day’s flattening, with the prospect of tighter monetary policy seeing the 2yr yield up +2.0bps to a post-pandemic high of 0.358%, whilst the 10yr decreased -4.0bps to 1.537%. That move lower in the 10yr yield was entirely down to lower real rates, however, which were down -7.4bps, suggesting investors were increasingly concerned about long-term growth prospects, whereas the 10yr inflation breakeven was up +3.3bps to 2.525%, its highest level since May. Meanwhile in Europe, 10yr sovereign bond yields took a turn lower alongside Treasuries, with those on bunds (-4.2bps), OATs (-4.0bps) and BTPs (-2.3bps) all falling. Recent inflation dynamics and issues on the supply-side are something that politicians have become increasingly attuned to, and President Biden gave remarks last night where he outlined efforts to address the supply-chain bottlenecks. This followed headlines earlier in the session that major ports in southern California would move to a 24/7 schedule to unclog delivery backlogs, and Mr. Biden also used the opportunity to push for the passage of the infrastructure plan. That comes as it’s also been reported by Reuters that the White House has been speaking with US oil and gas producers to see how prices can be brought lower. We should hear from Mr. Biden again today, who’s due to give an update on the Covid-19 response. On the topic of institutions that care about inflation, the September FOMC minutes suggested staff still remained optimistic that inflationary pressures would prove transitory, although Committee members themselves were predictably more split on the matter. Several participants pointed out that pandemic-sensitive prices were driving most of the gains, while some expressed concerns that high rates of inflation would feed into longer-term inflation expectations. Otherwise, the minutes all but confirmed DB’s US economists’ call for a November taper announcement, with monthly reductions in the pace of asset purchases of $10 billion for Treasuries and $5 billion for MBS. Markets took the news in their stride immediately following the release, reflecting how the build-up to this move has been gradually telegraphed through the year. Turning to equities, the S&P 500 managed to end its 3-day losing streak, gaining +0.30% by the close. Megacap technology stocks led the way, with the FANG+ index up +1.13% as the NASDAQ added +0.73%. On the other hand, cyclicals such as financials (-0.64%) lagged behind the broader index following flatter yield curve, and JPMorgan Chase (-2.64%) sold off as the company’s Q3 earnings release showed muted loan growth. Separately, Delta Air Lines (-5.76%) also sold off along with the broader S&P 500 airlines index (-3.51%), as they warned that rising fuel costs would threaten earnings over the current quarter. European indices posted a more solid performance than the US, with the STOXX 600 up +0.71%, though the sectoral balance was similar with tech stocks outperforming whilst the STOXX Banks index (-2.05%) fell back from its 2-year high the previous session. Overnight in Asia equities have put in a mixed performance, with the KOSPI (+1.17%) and the Nikkei (+1.01%) moving higher whilst the Shanghai Composite (-0.25%) and the CSI (-0.62%) have lost ground. Those moves follow the release of Chinese inflation data for September, which showed producer price inflation hit its highest in nearly 26 years, at +10.7% (vs. +10.5% expected), driven mostly by higher coal prices and energy-sensitive categories. On the other hand, the CPI measure for September came in slightly below consensus at +0.7% (vs. +0.8% expected), indicating that higher factory gate prices have not yet translated into consumer prices. Meanwhile, equity markets in the US are pointing to a positive start later on with S&P 500 futures up +0.32%. Of course, one of the drivers behind the renewal of inflation jitters has been the recent surge in commodity prices across the board, and we’ve seen further gains yesterday and this morning that will only add to the concerns about inflation readings yet to come. Oil prices have advanced yet again, with Brent Crude up +0.69% this morning to be on track to close at a 3-year high as it stands. That comes in spite of OPEC’s monthly oil market report revising down their forecast for world oil demand this year to 5.8mb/d, having been at 5.96mb/d last month. Elsewhere, European natural gas prices were up +9.24% as they continued to pare back some of the declines from last week, and a further two energy suppliers in the UK collapsed, Pure Planet and Colorado Energy, who supply quarter of a million customers between them. Otherwise, copper (+4.4x%) hit a 2-month high yesterday, and it up a further +1.01% this morning, Turning to Brexit, yesterday saw the European Commission put forward a set of adjustments to the Northern Ireland Protocol, which is a part of the Brexit deal that’s caused a significant dispute between the UK and the EU. The proposals from Commission Vice President Šefčovič would see an 80% reduction in checks on animal and plant-based products, as well as a 50% reduction in paperwork by reducing the documentation needed for goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. It follows a speech by the UK’s David Frost on Tuesday, in which he said that Article 16 of the Protocol, which allows either side to take unilateral safeguard measures, could be used “if necessary”. Mr. Frost is due to meet with Šefčovič in Brussels tomorrow. Running through yesterday’s other data, UK GDP grew by +0.4% in August (vs. +0.5% expected), and the July number was revised down to show a -0.1% contraction (vs. +0.1% growth previously). The release means that GDP in August was still -0.8% beneath its pre-pandemic level back in February 2020. To the day ahead now, and on the calendar we’ve got central bank speakers including the Fed’s Bullard, Bostic, Barkin, Daly and Harker, the ECB’s Elderson and Knot, along with the BoE’s Deputy Governor Cunliffe, Tenreyro and Mann. Data releases from the US include the September PPI reading along with the weekly initial jobless claims. Lastly, earnings releases will include UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, US Bancorp and Walgreens Boots Alliance. Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 08:29.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 14th, 2021

The AUKUS deal says more about US plans to take on China than Biden will admit

The AUKUS pact raises serious questions about the future relationship between the United States and most of its European allies. Royal Australian Navy diesel-electric submarine HMAS Waller in Sydney Harbor, November 2, 2016. PETER PARKS/AFP via Getty Images President Joe Biden is heading to the G-20 summit this month to mend rifts caused by the AUKUS security pact. The pact makes explicit US plans to aggressively challenge China, but in doing so, it risks further damaging core relationships. Grant Golub is a Ph.D. candidate studying US diplomatic history and grand strategy at the London School of Economics and Political Science. As President Joe Biden prepares to attend the G-20 summit in Rome at the end of this month, his recent decision to sign a new security agreement with Australia and Britain looms large.After this deal enraged France and caused a major diplomatic rift between Paris and Washington, the conference will be the president's first in-person opportunity to mend fresh wounds.Not only will Biden work to fix relations with French President Emmanuel Macron on the meeting's sidelines, but he'll aim to reassure his European counterparts on the US commitment to them as the contours of his China policy came into sharper focus.The president's approach, one characterized by competition and rivalry, will have profound implications for US grand strategy in the years to come.In September, Biden jointly announced with Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia and Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain the formation of a trilateral security pact. President Joe Biden, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announcing the AUKUS security initiative, at the White House, September 15, 2021. Andrew Harnik/AP Under the AUKUS agreement, London and Washington will help Canberra develop nuclear-powered submarines and increase technological cooperation across a range of domains, including artificial intelligence and cyber capabilities. Australia will also explore hosting US bombers on its territory.Yet while the AUKUS deal is a huge step by itself in its attempts to help Washington complete its Asia pivot and bolster its regional security position, its potential broader implications are even more striking. This is true not just for Sino-American relations, but also for the broader shape of American foreign policy.The core of the AUKUS pact is the Anglo-American commitment to provide Australia with nuclear propulsion technology to power a new fleet of submarines.Nuclear power allows submarines to have limitless range, travel largely undetected, and is so superior to conventional fuel that Australia and the United States gambled the deal was worth enraging France, which had a previous contract to provide Australia with diesel-powered submarines. Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron speak ahead of the NATO summit in Brussels, June 14, 2021. Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images However, this nuclear technology is one of America's most closely guarded secrets. Although the US has nuclear sharing agreements with key allies regarding the use of nuclear weapons, it barely exchanges nuclear materials or knowledge like this with any other nation.The United States last shared nuclear propulsion technology with an ally in 1958 under a major defense agreement with Britain after years of British political wrangling and the Soviet Union's successful launching of Sputnik. It took a massive crisis to convince American officials to relent on sharing this sensitive information, even with its closest ally.Since the end of World War II, nuclear nonproliferation has been a cornerstone of American grand strategy and foreign policy. Naturally, US officials have believed that if nuclear weapons spread and a greater number of states possessed them, there would be heightened risks of the United States being vulnerable to attack.Additionally, American policymakers have also been historically apprehensive about allies having independent nuclear arsenals or holding key nuclear information. If they did, the thinking went, they could possibly pull the US into conflicts it did not want to be involved in or operate more autonomously from Washington. US Navy nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Asheville and US 7th Fleet flagship USS Blue Ridge in the Philippine Sea. US Navy/MC2 Adam K. Thomas At the AUKUS deal announcement, the Australian prime minister made clear his nation was not seeking to build its own nuclear deterrent or acquire nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, for the Biden administration to cast aside Washington's historical commitments to nuclear nonproliferation means it views the China challenge and regional security in the Pacific as more pressing concerns.In other words, providing Australia with nuclear-powered submarines is a breach of a mainstay of American foreign policy for over the last seven decades. It's possible Washington could make similar decisions with other regional allies, like Japan or South Korea in the future, a worrying development.At the same time, the AUKUS pact raises serious questions about the future relationship between the United States and most of its European allies.While Australia, Britain, and the United States were negotiating this agreement, they decided to keep Paris in the dark since it involved cancelling France's previous submarine deal with Canberra.French President Emmanuel Macron was so infuriated with what he viewed as deception that he recalled France's ambassadors to both Australia and the United States, escalating the diplomatic rift created by the deal. The result was a blowup that has barely begun to heal and could further strain America's fracturing relations with some of its closest allies. Biden leaves after delivering remarks on the crisis in Afghanistan, at the White House, August 16, 2021. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images The AUKUS announcement has exposed the continuing fissures in the Atlantic alliance.Combined with the apparent lack of consultation over the US exit from Afghanistan, it demonstrates there is more continuity between the Biden administration and its predecessor on the role of Europe in American foreign policy than Biden officials would likely care to publicly admit.Rightfully, it amplifies questions about how Washington views its European allies as it continues to pivot toward Asia and reorient US national security policy toward confronting Beijing.The AUKUS deal is about more than its details. In joining this pact, Washington has made it explicit it plans to aggressively challenge China in both rhetoric and policy. But in doing so, it risks further damaging core relationships with traditional partners and setting off a chain reaction that could spiral out of control.As the Biden administration plans its next moves in the delicate dance with Beijing, it should seriously rethink whether a hawkish US posture in the Pacific is ultimately worth the costs.Grant Golub is a Ph.D. candidate studying US diplomatic history and grand strategy in the Department of International History at the London School of Economics and Political Science. His research focuses on the politics of American grand strategy during World War II. He is also a Marcellus Policy Fellow at the John Quincy Adams Society in Washington, DC, and a project assistant for the Cold War Studies Project at LSE IDEAS, a university think tank. His writing has appeared in The Washington Post, Responsible Statecraft, and other leading publications. He tweets at @ghgolub.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 14th, 2021

The AUKUS deal says more about US plans to take on China and Biden will admit

The AUKUS pact raises serious questions about the future relationship between the United States and most of its European allies. Royal Australian Navy diesel-electric submarine HMAS Waller in Sydney Harbor, November 2, 2016. PETER PARKS/AFP via Getty Images President Joe Biden is heading to the G-20 summit this month to mend rifts caused by the AUKUS security pact. The pact makes explicit US plans to aggressively challenge China, but in doing so, it risks further damaging core relationships. Grant Golub is a Ph.D. candidate studying US diplomatic history and grand strategy at the London School of Economics and Political Science. As President Joe Biden prepares to attend the G-20 summit in Rome at the end of this month, his recent decision to sign a new security agreement with Australia and Britain looms large.After this deal enraged France and caused a major diplomatic rift between Paris and Washington, the conference will be the president's first in-person opportunity to mend fresh wounds.Not only will Biden work to fix relations with French President Emmanuel Macron on the meeting's sidelines, but he'll aim to reassure his European counterparts on the US commitment to them as the contours of his China policy came into sharper focus.The president's approach, one characterized by competition and rivalry, will have profound implications for US grand strategy in the years to come.In September, Biden jointly announced with Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia and Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain the formation of a trilateral security pact. President Joe Biden, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announcing the AUKUS security initiative, at the White House, September 15, 2021. Andrew Harnik/AP Under the AUKUS agreement, London and Washington will help Canberra develop nuclear-powered submarines and increase technological cooperation across a range of domains, including artificial intelligence and cyber capabilities. Australia will also explore hosting US bombers on its territory.Yet while the AUKUS deal is a huge step by itself in its attempts to help Washington complete its Asia pivot and bolster its regional security position, its potential broader implications are even more striking. This is true not just for Sino-American relations, but also for the broader shape of American foreign policy.The core of the AUKUS pact is the Anglo-American commitment to provide Australia with nuclear propulsion technology to power a new fleet of submarines.Nuclear power allows submarines to have limitless range, travel largely undetected, and is so superior to conventional fuel that Australia and the United States gambled the deal was worth enraging France, which had a previous contract to provide Australia with diesel-powered submarines. Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron speak ahead of the NATO summit in Brussels, June 14, 2021. Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images However, this nuclear technology is one of America's most closely guarded secrets. Although the US has nuclear sharing agreements with key allies regarding the use of nuclear weapons, it barely exchanges nuclear materials or knowledge like this with any other nation.The United States last shared nuclear propulsion technology with an ally in 1958 under a major defense agreement with Britain after years of British political wrangling and the Soviet Union's successful launching of Sputnik. It took a massive crisis to convince American officials to relent on sharing this sensitive information, even with its closest ally.Since the end of World War II, nuclear nonproliferation has been a cornerstone of American grand strategy and foreign policy. Naturally, US officials have believed that if nuclear weapons spread and a greater number of states possessed them, there would be heightened risks of the United States being vulnerable to attack.Additionally, American policymakers have also been historically apprehensive about allies having independent nuclear arsenals or holding key nuclear information. If they did, the thinking went, they could possibly pull the US into conflicts it did not want to be involved in or operate more autonomously from Washington. US Navy nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Asheville and US 7th Fleet flagship USS Blue Ridge in the Philippine Sea. US Navy/MC2 Adam K. Thomas At the AUKUS deal announcement, the Australian prime minister made clear his nation was not seeking to build its own nuclear deterrent or acquire nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, for the Biden administration to cast aside Washington's historical commitments to nuclear nonproliferation means it views the China challenge and regional security in the Pacific as more pressing concerns.In other words, providing Australia with nuclear-powered submarines is a breach of a mainstay of American foreign policy for over the last seven decades. It's possible Washington could make similar decisions with other regional allies, like Japan or South Korea in the future, a worrying development.At the same time, the AUKUS pact raises serious questions about the future relationship between the United States and most of its European allies.While Australia, Britain, and the United States were negotiating this agreement, they decided to keep Paris in the dark since it involved cancelling France's previous submarine deal with Canberra.French President Emmanuel Macron was so infuriated with what he viewed as deception that he recalled France's ambassadors to both Australia and the United States, escalating the diplomatic rift created by the deal. The result was a blowup that has barely begun to heal and could further strain America's fracturing relations with some of its closest allies. Biden leaves after delivering remarks on the crisis in Afghanistan, at the White House, August 16, 2021. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images The AUKUS announcement has exposed the continuing fissures in the Atlantic alliance.Combined with the apparent lack of consultation over the US exit from Afghanistan, it demonstrates there is more continuity between the Biden administration and its predecessor on the role of Europe in American foreign policy than Biden officials would likely care to publicly admit.Rightfully, it amplifies questions about how Washington views its European allies as it continues to pivot toward Asia and reorient US national security policy toward confronting Beijing.The AUKUS deal is about more than its details. In joining this pact, Washington has made it explicit it plans to aggressively challenge China in both rhetoric and policy. But in doing so, it risks further damaging core relationships with traditional partners and setting off a chain reaction that could spiral out of control.As the Biden administration plans its next moves in the delicate dance with Beijing, it should seriously rethink whether a hawkish US posture in the Pacific is ultimately worth the costs.Grant Golub is a Ph.D. candidate studying US diplomatic history and grand strategy in the Department of International History at the London School of Economics and Political Science. His research focuses on the politics of American grand strategy during World War II. He is also a Marcellus Policy Fellow at the John Quincy Adams Society in Washington, DC, and a project assistant for the Cold War Studies Project at LSE IDEAS, a university think tank. His writing has appeared in The Washington Post, Responsible Statecraft, and other leading publications. He tweets at @ghgolub.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 14th, 2021

Could This Be A Blow-Off Top For Tyranny?

Could This Be A Blow-Off Top For Tyranny? Submitted by Mark Jeftovic of Bombthrower.com Could This be a Blow-Off Top for Tyranny? King John’s military failure at the Battle of Bouvines triggered the barons’ revolt, but the roots of their discontent lay much deeper. King John ruled England in a ruthless manner at a time when the instruments of government and the practices of the courts were becoming consolidated. Eventually the barons could no longer abide the unpredictable ruling style of their kings. Their discontent came to a head during John’s reign. — Magna Carta, Muse and Mentor   There was a lot of defeatism evident in the comments on my recent series of posts, Why the West can’t ban Bitcoin, How we know Bitcoin is a force for good and No-Coiners don’t get that it’s not up to the government.  The overall timbre being that governments are all-powerful and that they will simply ban or outlaw emergent phenomenon that doesn’t suit their purposes. For awhile this was also my concern. When I wrote Domestic Terror is a Government Without Constraints it was motivated from a place of angst and hopelessness. However as we’ve all been watching events unfold, my mindset around this has been shifting. I have been coming across instance after instance of historical accounts on how seemingly unassailable and despotic regimes were swept away in mere moments of time, when it was least expected, when they seemed to be at the height of their power and poised to consolidate it even more. It is in these inflection points where nobody is aware of their existence, a grain of sand shifts somewhere and suddenly a geopolitical Minsky Moment ensues. Then it’s all over: The fall of the 300-year old Romanov dynasty and 800 year line of Tsars in a weekend over 1917 a few months after an obscure prince named Felix Yusopov murdered a peasant scoundrel named Rasputin The collapse of the Soviet Eastern Bloc in 1989 after gateway between Austria and Hungary was opened one weekend during a Pan-European picnic. It led to the collapse of the USSR after a failed hardliner coup in 1991. In 1945, the government of Haiti was overthrown in an uprising three days after the French writer and revolutionary Andre Breton gave a speech on Surrealism in Port-Au-Prince. Back in the days of William Buckler’s The Privateer newsletter, there was another, lesser known but just good newsletter by Mark Rostenko called The Sovereign Strategist (I have to admit modelling The Crypto Capitalist on both). Rostenko once wrote: “Nothing is bigger than the market. Nothing.” Rostenko quit in disgust and moved to the wilderness, I had brief communications with him over the years including this interview on my old blog. But my last couple emails to him have gone unanswered. What Rostenko may have lost faith in, for the moment, was that “the market” is really another word for The People. Every individual should be free to conduct their daily affairs in a way that serves their rational self-interest. I can hear the collectivists shrieking at that statement. To them I would simply dismiss their claims on everyone else’s autonomy by saying that when particular self-interested behaviours begin to adversely impact on the commons of everybody, then in an undistorted,  free market we would see it in rising costs or other market signals that would change the incentive structure and with it, everybody’s behaviours would adjust. Example: in a truly catastrophic global pandemic with a Black Plague, Ebola or Spanish Flu level of lethality, nobody would have be compelled to wear a mask, stay off the streets or queue up for a vaccine. In my piece that government can’t ban crypto, the naysayers converged around two objections: FDR’s gold ban of 1932 and Communist Centralist China now. FDR’s Gold Ban of 1933 This is one of those episodes in history where people simply don’t look beyond the headline. All they know that is in 1933 a series of executive orders were passed to remove the ability to hold gold privately or specify it as a payment method in contracts and they assume that was it: in a puff of edict, all privately held gold simply disappeared from the public’s hands (“checkmate, Bitcoin cultist”). Everybody is expecting one of these for a specialized area of mathematics called Bitcoin. But that isn’t what happened. In Kenneth R. Ferguson’s “Confiscation: Gold as Contraband 1933-1975” we get a more nuanced look at what the effect and implications of the gold ban were, including the haunting parallels to today’s Lockdown Society and it’s war on small business and the middle class. Our lack of insight into this era… “gives short change to the legitimate concerns of the people who were most opposed to President Roosevelt’s gold policies—farmers, blue collar workers, small business proprietors—and who believed democracy had been circumvented. Just a few years earlier, in the late 1920s, the mere thought of gold confiscation would have been inconceivable to everyone, including those who later supported it.” The gold ban came after FDR and the Democrats ran a campaign premised on a balanced budget and reduced government spending (yes, really). By the time he came into office the Great Depression was in full swing, the S&P had come off 80% from its 1929 high, unemployment was at 25%. England was forced to abandon its gold standard in 1931 and 25 other countries followed suit within the year. The newly elected president came into office facing a wave of  bank runs and took over the entire financial sector on his second day in office, “emergency executive control over all banking and currency transactions.” FDR blamed gold hoarding for the nation’s banking crisis, however: He failed to explain hoarding as a way of protecting a life savings in the face of frequent and increasing bank insolvency coupled with no depositor insurance, or to identify speculative activity abroad as foreigners exchanging their dollar assets for gold in anticipation of dollar devaluation. Most people would understand these choices as rational, but Roosevelt labeled them “unwarranted” and “speculative” in an emotional appeal to wrongdoing. The emphasis is added, because it highlights our main assertion: at some point rational self-interest creates an environment that incentivizes certain behaviours in spite of those that the government is attempting to induce. In fact, the harder the government may try to impose behaviours that are against the rabble’s own interests, the more vigorously they may adapt the discouraged behaviour  (also see: Bitcoin). FDR’s administration escalated the war on savers by ratcheting up the restrictions against gold: “The gold policies of President Roosevelt over a ten-month period provided a classic example of a political slippery slope. On April 5, the President declared “hoarding” to be illegal, and on August 28 the crime was elevated to “holding.” On December 28, 1933, the Secretary of the Treasury finalized the mandate by “requiring the delivery of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates to the Treasurer of the United States” (that is, from the theoretically-temporary hands of the banks into the more permanent possession of the government itself.) This is the definition of confiscation; it merely took ten months to be so stated.” Ferguson’s book does a masterful job detailing the machinations of this chapter in US and economic history, in details far exceeding my available bandwidth here. So what actually did happen? Compliance turned out to be low: it was estimated that $287 million USD of gold was in the public hands at the time of the ban. This excludes gold already exported out of the country by those who saw it coming (Canada was a favourite destination and waypoint) and the wealthy who were speculating against a USD currency devaluation using gold held offshore. Of that remaining stash in US public hands, compliance was estimated to be less than 50% by some tallies. The total face value of all gold coinage surrendered between 1933 and 1965 was less than $12 million USD, or approximately 4% of outstanding gold coinage. China’s Bitcoin Ban From my latest Crypto Capitalist letter, I cover the general situation in China: China’s crypto ban is actually less about crypto and more about state control over everything. There are rumours that China will soon break up Alipay, the overarching pattern is that China perceives Big Tech and decentralized tech as threats to the CCP hegemony, and they are moving to crush all opposition. Only by moving to outlaw entire industries, especially the ones poised to inherit the future, China may be repeating the same error that made over 500 years ago, when they ceded passage over the open seas to Europe, who went on to shape the trajectory of the world while China atrophied into centuries of internal strife and conflict: “More than five centuries ago, three ancient civilizations made three crucial decisions that largely preordained their subsequent collapse. As always, during periods of stress, these choices were not perceived as either critical or damaging. Indeed on the contrary, they were viewed positively as constructive responses to the contemporary problems that helped to strengthen their respective societies. In a matter of several decades between 1433 and 1485, China, Russia and the Ottomans independently decided that interactions with foreigners, trade, innovation, civil and property rights, education, and freedom to exchange views were contrary to the interests of the state and social cohesion” — Victor Shvets, The Great Rupture Is China making the same mistake now? We can already see that an outright ban on Bitcoin and crypto-currencies in China has had no effect on them globally. Zero. Think about that. Also note that reminiscent of how gold was exported from the US ahead of the gold ban in 1932 (not because anybody saw the ban coming per se, but because a devaluation of the USD was seen as likely), the largest Chinese crypto exchanges have been exiting China since 2017. Binance is still operating full-tilt having moved their HQ from Hong Kong to Bahamas, which is quite literally a page from The Sovereign Individual playbook – moving from a jurisdiction hostile to your interests to one accommodating to them.  Binance has its own exchange token (BNB) which at a $64B market cap makes it the 5th largest crypto currency in the world, and a Layer 1 blockchain (Binance Smartchain) that currently has a little under $20B TVL in DeFi, which definitely puts it somewhere on the Network State / Crypto-clave spectrum. Something similar happened with Chinese miners, who are moving to the West or other Asian jurisdictions. Interestingly, most of the crypto entities that arose there and then fled, came up in Hong Kong, which has had a taste of free market capitalism until the big rug pull in that respect in recent years. In mainland China itself, they’ve always been living under totalitarianism and the population is inculcated to it. But even there, how long can the Chinese people, catching glimpses through the Great Firewall of far  more marginally freer people, especially those in Hong Kong, abide by tyranny? How long can that centralized, top-down repression truly continue for? Life in liberal democracies is traditionally supposed to be anything goes except that which is expressly illegal. But we’ve had two years of rule by edict and that which is not explicitly permitted is forbidden. How long can this continue for? On a local level, some restaurants in Toronto are deciding not to enforce vax mandates. The longer the mandates continue, I expect more restaurants to begin eschewing them, because their economic self-interest is served by doing so. Even fully vaxxed people are curbing their outings because dinner and a movie feels more like internment into a gulag than a family night out. Venues that help people regain that sense of normalcy and comfort will attract the business, not the ones who force you to show “your papers please” on the way in. In Australia, the peasants are revolting, and even if the civil aviation authority is trying to ban drones from capturing the footage of these occurrences, they are still occurring and footage is getting out nonetheless. Varying US states ruling against vaccine and mask mandates, people are setting up job boards for those who aren’t vaxxed (or those who are but don’t want to work for companies that require it). The transportation system is grinding to a halt as air traffic controllers, air crew and pilots are calling in sick, resulting in mass flight cancelations, who knows where it will spread next. Why? The MSM is trying hard not to find out, but guys like Ron Paul suspect vaccine mandates. Right now we’re in civil disobedience, nullification and secessionist territory, but when I think about escalation: as the financial crisis that seemed imminent before COVID seems to be edging back into the frame (inflation, energy costs, supply chain constraints, cascading debt collapses: Evergrande and now the entire Chinese bond market) governments who seized on the COVID opportunity to introduce emergency measures may see a need for doubling down. After chasing the goalposts for almost two years now, I’m not sure the rabble is going to take it much longer. And if it doesn’t, what would that mean? #WorldWarWe In a recent podcast I was listening to (I think it was Sahill Bloom on Bankless, but it’s possible I’m misremembering and I’m sorry if so), he said something almost off-handedly: He said, in effect, “the next world war will be unlike anything we’ve ever seen” – and I expected him to talk about non-conventional warfare, such as bio-weapons, information warfare, and economics (“war by other means”), but instead he said “World War III will be everybody against their own governments” When you think about it, one realizes that today’s technology, with decentralization, cryptography, 3-D printing and drones could actually make this a possibility. In David Hambling’s Swarm Troopers: How Small Drones Can Conquer the World, he outlines how governments, whose military used to have technologies 20 years ahead of the general populace, have become so bureaucratized and sclerotic that they now move at a fraction of the pace of the highly competitive private sector: “If a commercial product goes through a generation every two years and the military cycle takes six years per generation, then in twelve years the military product goes from being four times as powerful as the competition to a quarter as powerful.” An example of this dynamic we can already see having played out is the Internet, which came out of the military industrial complex and in its day, was light-years ahead of anything the general public had (Compuserve, GEnie). But the “genie” did indeed get out of the bottle, and once the private sector got onto it and ran with it, it changed the fundamental architecture of power. The groundwork was laid for the evolution of societies in ways that would challenge, and will inevitably overwhelm the nation states that let it out. Say hello to the Network State and crypto claves. So now that we’re here in The Jackpot, do we honestly believe that the slowest, most bureaucratic, rigid an inflexible entities (governments) are actually going to win the race for primacy in a rapidly decentralizing world? When the gargantuan imbalances they created over the last century finally experience their all-encompassing, self-induced Global Minsky Moment? It was under FDR’s gold ban that dissenting Supreme Court Justice McReynolds ruminated that it meant the demise of the US Constitution: It is impossible to fully estimate the result of what has been done. The Constitution as many of us have understood it, the instrument that has meant so much to us, is gone. The guarantees heretofore supposed to protect against arbitrary action have been swept away. The powers of Congress have been so enlarged that now no man can tell their limitations. Guarantees heretofore supposed to prevent arbitrary action are in the discard… Shame and humiliation are upon us now. Moral and financial chaos may confidently be expected. While in those days the ban on gold was ineffective and compliance less than half, it did succeed in stripping the US citizenry of constitutional protections which has only escalated into the present day. We have all been treating what happened under COVID as something unprecedented. But if you think of Lockdown Society and The New Normal not as the implementation of a quasi-one-world government , ushering in a global police state, but instead as the crescendo, of a roughly century long process of creeping tyranny…. one of those infamous blow-off tops that are unrecognizable to us now because we are immersed in it, still experiencing it. Despite the overwhelming arsenals of governments, the militarization of civilian police forces, and near ubiquitous surveillance capabilities, there’s never been a time in history when the people have the means to rebel, both within the system and without. Especially here in North America, where to avoid retyping all this, allow me to simply excerpt a passage from the most recent edition of The Crypto Capitalist letter…. “The Future of Life Institute made docudrama short-film called “Slaughterbots”, it’s 7 minutes long and nothing short of chilling, but we’d be fools to think that if technology has this capability already, it won’t be used. By somebody: Mexican cartels are already using drones to smuggle drugs, not to mention weaponized drones in combat with each other and on at least one occasion used them to attack the police. It’s still under-appreciated how significant a change this is. On par with the gunpowder revolution and aerial warfare, autonomous weapons and drones are yet another technology in the process of changing the rules of the game. This brings us to the important part: we can already see that these technologies won’t just change the nature of conflict between governments. Drones are also accessible to non-state actors, perhaps even more-so. They will alter the relationship of power across society as a whole. When also you factor in their close cousin, 3-D printed weapons, we really begin to understand what a fundamental shift in the landscape decentralization and digital technology really implies. One of the defining characteristics that makes America, and certain other countries so different from, say, China, or even Australia, is the level to which the citizenry is armed. Especially in North America. The US and Mexico are two of the only three countries in world where gun ownership is a Constitutional right (the third is Guatemala) while even here in Canada, where it isn’t, we have one of the higher per-capita levels of gun ownership (somewhere around 34 guns per 100 people). Imagine a future in which all these gun owners have the capability and incentives to print up their own weapons on 3- D printers. Then deploying them via drones, possibly swarms of them, for whatever purpose. There is no technological barrier from them doing so, and doing so right now. What scenarios or conditions would have to exist to galvanize that kind of behaviour en masse? How close are we to those conditions now? Are we moving toward those conditions or away from them? Most importantly, do you think whoever is in government could stop it? If you consider this, then we can get a sense of why governments and policymakers are so eager to assert their authority now and to appear to be unassailable and omnipotent. I think it’s fear.” To be clear: I am not advocating an armed rebellion against incumbent governments. I’m observing how decentralization and cryptography have changed the architecture of power and asking what kind of incentives would have to be in place to make what I describe inevitable. The Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency movements were the second half of the one-two punch that set all this in motion. The Internet freed the flow of information, and in a world where “whosoever controls the monetary system, controls society (Zarlenga)”, cryptos have taken the punch-bowl of monetary control away from the State in a truly Promethean manner, and open-sourced it. Who controls money now? Everybody. There is a point beyond which the citizenry will stop viewing each other as enemies (left vs right) and start viewing their own governments as the enemy (overlords vs rabble). If that happens, then the incentives and conditions will be in place for #WorldWarWe. Coda: As per the comment from Matt below, I am deeply saddened to learn that Mark Rostenko passed away July 26, 2020. We never met, but I considered him an internet friend and I respected him a lot. Tyler Durden Wed, 10/13/2021 - 16:20.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 13th, 2021

This $15 murder mystery game brought me and my friends hours of fun on my birthday

University Games makes different murder mystery games. For my birthday dinner, my friends and I played "Death By Cholocate" and loved every moment. I bought the "Death By Chocolate" murder mystery game from University Games and had so much fun playing it for my birthday. Target; Lily Oberstein; Rachel Mendelson/Insider When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more. Murder mystery games are popular party activities and great for Halloween. Our two-hour-long Death by Chocolate game was filled with good backstories and lots of accusations. If I could change the game, I would let the murderer know their role earlier. I spent my birthday accusing my closest friends of murder over chocolate and cheese - and can't recommend the experience highly enough. Wanting to do something more special than a simple dinner or drinks, I thought about a murder mystery party with a handful of good friends. Murder Mystery games can vary in price, intensity, and overall format, but all involve a group of participants getting enough information on other party-goers to piece together fictitious murder. Death by Chocolate (small)I'd heard good things about University Games from a friend who'd played the Slice of Murder game. Her experience stood out from other sets that I'd heard of because of the detailed instructions (from what dinner to serve and where each guest should sit) and the audio that accompanied their game.Prepping the murder mystery game and dinnerA week and a half before my birthday, I ordered the Death by Chocolate game and booked an Airbnb that sleeps seven - a quick train ride away from my apartment to set the scene for the big mystery dinner. Our Airbnb and soon-to-be-spot for our murder mystery dinner. Lily Oberstein/Insider The invitations for the party in the box (which I decided to send out virtually) gave a quick blurb of each character so that I was able to assign the game out without spoiling anything for myself. The box came with invitations, name tags for each character, booklets that helped everyone move the story along the night off, secret clues, and a "Party Planner" pamphlet that the host could read through without finding out who committed the crime. Lily Oberstein/Insider In this particular game, the names were based on well-known characters and people, like Billy Bonka (in keeping with the chocolate theme of the game) or Sigmund Fraud, so just hearing them without the descriptions gave a pretty good idea of who the character would be and which friend to assign to each one. The Party Planner booklet also gave us a suggested menu, though the quail egg dip that required 49 quail eggs seemed a little extreme for us (we opted for a charcuterie board instead). Lily Oberstein/Insider The food and character assignments weren't the only prep we needed for the game night. Everyone showed up in costume, and some people even came prepared with their characters' accents which made the night even more festive and entertaining. I'd thrifted my beauty queen look earlier in the day, and got some fake cigarettes and tape to make a body imprint on the floor. My friends and I all in costume and ready to play our murder mystery dinner game. Megan Morey/Insider Playing the gameThe game itself starts off by going to a link to a video included in the party planner's booklet, which we watched from a friend's phone. After the introductory video, the characters read lines of dialogue before we get into the free-range part of the discussion. There are things listed that each character should bring up before the end of the round and new facts that they must disclose about themselves if asked and then challenged. The game only needs six characters but has parts for up to eight. For the flow of the game, I'm glad I had all the characters around the table to make the storyline flow better, rather than having someone read the updates on characters not there. Megan Morey/Insider In the story, only a few of the characters knew each other before the crime, so I enjoyed that my friends around the table didn't all know each other, either - it gave the game more authenticity and worked as a great ice breaker. However, the game relies on players being incredibly confrontational to identify a murderer, so making sure everyone is comfortable enough to really question each other makes the game more fun. The new facts throughout the game mean that in each round, there are new top suspects and lots of important and distracting information to sort through. The Death by Chocolate storyline did a good job of giving every character a motive, suspicious backstory, or believable opportunity to be the killer. No one is allowed to lie about their backstories unless they're told they are the killer, but players are encouraged to only give away what they are asked directly about. Megan Morey/Insider I liked that new information came out every round to keep the game moving along, but as in most murder mystery games, there were a couple of times when we didn't know enough about our characters to answer some of the questions we were asked before that information was even revealed to us. Most notably, the murderer only finds out they're the killer in the last round, so there wasn't much opportunity for them to come up with a fake backstory after so much had been discovered about them already. The game ends with accusations where each character says who they think the killer or killers were before the video tells us what really happened. Not everyone guessed correctly, but by the end, the majority of us were able to put the pieces together about who we thought could have done it and why.Forcing everyone to explain who they thought was the killer, see who had picked up on what details, and get in one last accusation was a really fun way to end the night.Things to keep in mind when you play:Everyone with a role needs to totally commit to coming (aka, no notoriously flaky friends!) and preparing their part to get the best experienceYou'll need to focus and keep in mind certain details about your characters (like age) that could be missed and may matter to the plotLet the conversations run, even if there is a lull - jumping too quickly to the next section means you could miss key facts (or just cut down on the fun)The bottom line Lily Oberstein/Insider Despite my few notes about the game, I loved the premise, red herrings, and outlandishness of the experience. Since I can't play the Death by Chocolate mystery again, I've already given the game to a friend who couldn't make it for my birthday - and can't wait to play another University Games murder mystery dinner for my next one. Death by Chocolate (button)Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 13th, 2021