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Chaos In Texas As Employees Fired For Refusing To Get Vaxxed Demand Their Jobs Back

Chaos In Texas As Employees Fired For Refusing To Get Vaxxed Demand Their Jobs Back Things are getting very confusing in Texas. Shortly after governor Greg Abbott issued an executive order banning the vaccine mandates by any employer, which in turn was followed by several prominent Texas corporations - such as IBM, American Air, Southwest - saying they would snub the EO and back Biden on shots, we've reach a point where some employers side with the governor, others side with the president, meanwhile employees have no idea what they have to do (or not do), while yet another group of (former) employees that was fired for refusing to comply with the mandates is now trying to get their jobs back.  As Houston Public Media reports, more than 150 former employees of Houston Methodist Hospital, who either quit or were fired in June over a vaccine mandate policy will demand to be rehired after Gov. Abbott issued an executive order on Monday banning any entity in the state from implementing such mandates, according to a lawyer representing the former employees. Attorney Jared Woodfill, who represents almost 200 healthcare workers in multiple lawsuits against Methodist, said executive order GA-40 makes the hospital’s policy illegal. “Governor Abbott says very clearly, ‘whereas countless Texans fear losing their livelihoods because they object to receiving a COVID-19 vaccination for reasons of personal conscience,'” he said. “That applies to every plaintiff that I represent, and every plaintiff that Methodist hospital thought it was appropriate to fire.” Woodfill said he planned to send a formal request to the hospital on Tuesday in an attempt to reinstate the former employees. As we reported at the time, Houston Methodist, which operates several hospitals in the area and has more than 25,000 employees, was the first hospital in the country to implement a vaccine mandate for workers in April sparking a fierce legal battle between hundreds of employees and the hospital. In June, 178 employees were suspended after declining to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. Weeks later, 153 employees either resigned or were terminated. According to Methodists' numbers, 25 opted to get vaccinated and return to work. In a statement, Methodist CEO Marc Boom didn’t touch on whether or not the former employees would be allowed back, but said he was "deeply disappointed" by Abbott’s order. He added that the order wouldn’t have an impact on Methodist since the hospital implemented its vaccine mandate months ago. The hospital system is still reviewing Abbott’s order and its possible implications, but because its own rule went into effect months ago, 100% of its employees are compliant with the vaccine policy, according to Boom.  “We are reviewing the order now and its possible implications,” the statement read. “We expect all of our employees and physicians to be vaccinated as we must continue doing everything possible to keep all our patients and each other as safe as possible until this pandemic is over." He added that “not only are our patients safe as a result, but we are able to remain healthy at work and be there for our community when it needs us the most." Boom said he hoped that other Texas hospitals, like Baylor College of Medicine and Memorial Hermann, would continue to implement their vaccine mandates despite the governor’s orders. “We are grateful we mandated the vaccine early so the order will not have an immediate impact on us,” Marc Boom, the chief executive officer of Houston Methodist, wrote in an email. “But we are concerned for other Texas hospitals that may not be able to continue their mandates now with this executive order.” Tyler Durden Wed, 10/13/2021 - 20:25.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 13th, 2021

Rickards: Towards A New Great Depression

Rickards: Towards A New Great Depression Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com, First Down Payment on a Boondoggle Thirteen Republican congressmen crossed the aisle late Friday night to help pass a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill. The original proposal was $2.3 trillion, so some Republicans consider it a victory. But it creates programs that will likely remain in place once the bill’s spending authorization expires in five years. Like Ronald Reagan said, “Nothing lasts longer than a temporary government program.” And at 2,700 pages, you can be sure there’s plenty of wasteful pork in it. Only about one-third of that money goes toward actual infrastructure such as bridges, tunnels, roads and airports. The rest is for vague causes like “human infrastructure,” which includes training, oversight and other government intrusion favored by the Democrats. Still, there was enough real infrastructure in the bill to gain bipartisan support. But this so-called bipartisan infrastructure bill is only one part of a more ambitious “infrastructure” package. “Don’t Move, or I’ll Shoot” The other legislation is a $1.75 trillion welfare bill (this figure used to be $3.5 trillion, but it was scaled back at the insistence of moderate Senate Democrats). Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats were holding the infrastructure bill hostage as leverage to get the Senate to agree to their priorities on the welfare bill. This strategy backfired both because the Senate does not like to be played by the House and some Democrats would have been happy if the welfare bill failed entirely. The House hostage strategy was like holding a gun to your head and saying, “Don’t move, or I’ll shoot.” Senators say, “Go ahead.” This muddle is entirely procedural. But what about the actual substance of the bills? 103,000 Lost Jobs! There are expert or nonpartisan panels such as the Tax Foundation and the Congressional Budget Office that render verdicts on these issues to help members of Congress understand what they’re actually doing. The Tax Foundation estimates that the Democrat welfare bill will destroy 103,000 jobs over the next 10 years. Many of these job losses are due to tax increases, increased regulatory burdens and energy inefficiency introduced by the Green New Deal. The job losses projected by the Tax Foundation are in addition to hundreds of thousands of job losses facing the economy in the short run because of vax mandates and the firing of employees who refuse to be injected with the gene-modification treatments called “vaccines.” For example, New York City has had to close 20 FDNY fire companies because of suspensions, retirements and layoffs of firefighters who chose not to be vaccinated. The same personnel losses are being reported in the NYPD, emergency medical workers, nurses, teachers, sanitation workers and others performing critical tasks needed to keep society running. Politicians don’t care. For them, it’s vax or be fired. For the rest of us, it means more fires, unsafe streets, rats feeding on garbage and reduced medical care. No Temporary Blip The economic cost of this is huge on top of the social costs. It’s one reason economic growth almost stalled out in the third quarter. Mortgage foreclosures in the third quarter of 2021 jumped 32% compared with the second quarter and 67% compared to the third quarter of 2020. There was a high correlation between this surge in foreclosures and the termination of government moratoriums on foreclosures. This means that the economy was weak all along and that government programs in response to the pandemic only papered over the weakness. Now that the programs have ended, the weakness has emerged. This is more than a temporary blip. The foreclosure wave has just begun because many state and local moratoriums were continued even as federal relief ended. One by one those other moratoriums will be ended also, and the foreclosure wave will grow. On the whole, the pandemic may be ending, but the economic aftermath of the pandemic has only just begun. No Full Recovery Until 2045 This new wave of weakness will impact stock markets, which rose based on a “reopening” meme of increasing sales and spending as the economy gets back to normal. But there is no normal. We’re living in a new post-pandemic world and signs of sustainable growth are hard to find. The effects of the pandemic on the economy will be intergenerational. The behavioral changes induced by the Great Depression did not fade until 30 years after the Depression was over. Such is the staying power of social trauma whether it be war, depression or pandemic. Accordingly, we will not likely recover from this pandemic fully until 2045 or later in terms of savings, consumption, disinflation, low interest rates and low growth. In the shorter term, the Biden administration will slow U.S. and global growth with a combination of higher taxes, more regulation and wasteful spending on programs such as the Green New Deal. “Stimulus” Biden administration deficit spending, such as the “infrastructure” bills, is continually claimed as stimulus. But in fact, there is no stimulus from such spending because the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is now approaching 130%. There is good evidence that debt-to-GDP ratios in excess of 90% produce less growth than the amount of new debt itself. In other words, there is no stimulus and only an increasing debt-to-GDP ratio that makes the situation worse. It’s just digging a deeper hole. At some point you have to stop digging. The U.S. was already facing slower growth in the years ahead with or without the Biden administration’s policies because of high debt and a central bank that does not understand monetary economics. Now that Biden’s policies are fully revealed and becoming law, it is clear that growth will be even worse than would otherwise be expected. If Biden’s trying to destroy the U.S. economy, he’s off to a very good start. The New Depression, Continued As I’ve argued before, this is all characteristic of a new great depression. A depression is not technically defined but is understood as a prolonged period of growth that is either below the long-term trend or below potential growth. That’s the reality we’re facing. Meanwhile, inflation has hit a 30-year high. For the month of September, inflation rose at an annual rate of 4.4%, the highest since 1991. Wholesale prices increased 8.6% since last October, the highest annual pace in nearly 11 years. Yesterday, the Labor Department released October’s Consumer Price Index, which was at its highest in almost 40 years. Economists debate whether this recent rise in inflation is temporary or here to stay, but in the short run it doesn’t matter. Inflation is here today and your purchasing power is going down. It’s hopeless to expect the government to cut down on deficit spending or money printing anytime soon. It’s all they know how to do. Unfortunately, things will probably get worse. Tyler Durden Sun, 11/14/2021 - 08:10.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 14th, 2021

Understaffed restaurants are pushing customers to order at digital kiosks. As well as alleviating the labor shortage, the kiosks bring in bigger revenues.

The CEO of digital kiosk company GRUBBRR said its phone were currently "ringing off the hook" as demand booms during the labor shortage. The CEO of GRUBBRR, which makes digital kiosks, told Insider that its phone were "ringing off the hook." GRUBBRR digital kiosk Understaffed restaurants are turning to digital kiosks amid the labor shortage. They eliminate the need for some cashiers and lead to customers place bigger orders. The CEO of digital kiosk company GRUBBRR said its phone were "ringing off the hook." More restaurants are turning to digital kiosks to overcome their staffing shortages.Sam Zietz, CEO of digital-kiosk maker GRUBBRR, told Insider that demand for its products had boomed during the labor shortage."Our phones are ringing off the hook," he said.Record numbers of Americans are quitting their jobs in search of better wages, benefits, and working conditions.Restaurants have been especially affected, and it's hitting their bottom line. Restaurants have been boosting wages to attract more staff, cutting their hours, and closing their dining rooms - all of which are costing them money.Restaurant owners say employees are overworked and service is getting slower, too. Zietz told Insider there's only one solution to the labor shortage, "and that's automation."Digital kiosks are large touch-screen devices where diners can order and pay without needing assistance from staff.Zietz said digital kiosks have two main advantages for understaffed restaurants: they ensure restaurants are able to take orders and open their doors, and they're cheaper than hiring cashiers as wages rise in the industry. Digital kiosks can alleviate the burden on staff in busy restaurants. GRUBBRR digital kiosk "Our core belief is the cashier is obsolete," Zietz said.He added that he wasn't advocating making human labor redundant in restaurants. Rather, he said that cashiers could move into roles where they have more added value, like servers or cooks.Zietz said that each of GRUBBRR's kiosks cost around $2,500, alongside $200 a month for software, and could save a restaurant around $6,000 a month on labor costs."The day you put it in, you're automatically saving money to the bottom line," Zietz said.Customers place bigger orders at digital kiosksCustomers tend to spend between 12% and 22% more when ordering at digital kiosks, Zietz said.At a chicken chain GRUBBRR has partnered with, the average order value when a customer orders at a cashier is close to $13, rising to almost $20 when they order from a kiosk, he said.This is largely due to personalization, he said.Kiosks are able to recommend add-ons to customers based on what they're ordering, like adding avocado to a burger or ordering a drink too. Customers can also scan their loyalty cards to access personalized recommendations or see their recent and favorite orders.But the kiosks can also promote items based on the time of day, season, and weather, too, such as listing ice-cream higher up on the menu on sunny days. Customers place bigger orders at digital kiosks. GRUBBRR Kiosks also display images of the items as customers scroll through the menus, which Zietz said makes them more likely to order them.A former restaurant experience design consultant told The Wall Street Journal that diners are more likely to place bigger orders and add more substitutions when they order digitally because they can hide their embarrassment from servers.Restaurants can also adjust their menus in real-time depending on ingredients availability and price changes, which Zietz said is especially useful amid the supply-chain chaos.GRUBBRR has rolled them out at quick-service chains including The Chicken Shack, Sus Hi Eatstation, Capriotti's, OC Eateries, and Nature's Table, as well as stadiums, arenas, hotels, and schools.It's not just digital kiosks. Zietz said GRUBBRR was rolling out its software in full-service restaurants using QR codes and tablets."I used to tell people we were a hyper-growth company," Zietz said. "Now I tell them we're a meteoric-growth company."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 14th, 2021

CEO: I Am Challenging The Vaccine Mandate To Protect My Workers" Jobs

CEO: I Am Challenging The Vaccine Mandate To Protect My Workers' Jobs By Angela Phillips, the CEO of the Ohio-based Phillips Manufacturing & Tower Company, which includes Shelby Welded Tube, first published in RealClearPolicy The Biden administration has finally published its anticipated ultimatum threatening companies like mine with severe fines and penalties for not firing any employee who declines to be vaccinated against or submit to invasive weekly testing for COVID-19. The new rule promulgated by the U.S. Labor Department’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) under the guise of workplace safety may well bankrupt the business my father founded. So, as the CEO of the Phillips Manufacturing & Tower Company, I am joining with The Buckeye Institute to challenge OSHA’s vaccine mandate in court. Here’s why. Phillips is a 54-year-old company based in Shelby, Ohio, that manufactures specialty welded steel tubing for automotive, appliance, and construction industries. OSHA’s emergency rule applies to companies with 100 or more employees — at our Shelby Welded Tube facility, we employ 104 people. As a family-owned business I take the health of my workers seriously — they are my neighbors and my friends. When I heard of the mandate, we conducted a survey of our workers to see what the impacts would be. It revealed that 28 Phillips employees are fully vaccinated, while antibody testing conducted at company expense found that another 16 employees have tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies and likely possess natural immunity. At least 47 employees have indicated that they have not and will not be vaccinated. Seventeen of those 47 unvaccinated workers said that they would quit or be fired before complying with the vaccine or testing mandate. Those are 17 skilled workers that Phillips cannot afford to lose. Perhaps the Biden administration remains unaware of the labor shortage currently plaguing the U.S. labor market generally and industrial manufacturing especially. Like many companies, Phillips is already understaffed, with seven job openings we have been unable to fill. Employees already work overtime to keep pace with customer demand, working 10-hour shifts, six days a week on average. Firing 17 veteran members of the Phillips team certainly won’t help. Accounting estimates that it will cost Phillips close to $1 million in additional overtime, and recruiting and training new employees to replace those lost to the mandate — assuming the company can find them. And that also assumes that Phillips will continue to meet existing customer orders using extra overtime for remaining employees. No easy task and not a safe assumption. If a short-handed Phillips cannot meet contractual production requirements due to the mandate-fueled labor shortage, then Phillips could lose customers and face significant penalties. Many Phillips customers are outside of the U.S. — primarily in Mexico — and may flock to foreign competitors or companies with fewer than 100 workers that are not subject to the mandate or the shortages it creates. And one Phillips contract, for example, imposes a $25,000 penalty for each hour that the customer is without the promised product. Such obligations and penalties help protect supply chains across the industry, but those obligations — and supply chains — may soon be broken and customers may soon go elsewhere thanks to the administration’s callous new rule. Complying with OSHA’s vaccine mandate and testing requirements risks catastrophic financial consequences. It also means firing qualified, well-trained, hardworking employees who rely on their jobs at Phillips Manufacturing & Tower Company to feed their families and pay their mortgages — for no reason other than to avoid draconian federal fines. Indeed, these employees may very well have the natural immunity that we tested for, which studies show to be more robust and longer lasting than vaccinated immunity. OSHA has no authority to require Phillips or any other company to make such a Hobson’s choice. OSHA’s vaccine-or-testing ultimatum is unlike any other occupational health and safety regulation inasmuch as it tries to regulate an employee’s individual decision not to receive an injection. And it does not regulate commercial activity inasmuch as employees subject to the mandate do not even pay for the vaccines. As Biden administration officials have publicly admitted, the vaccine mandate is a brazen attempt to coerce private companies into enforcing a vaccine requirement that Washington lacks the legal authority to require. Phillips is one company unwilling to do the administration’s dirty work.       Tyler Durden Fri, 11/12/2021 - 15:45.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 12th, 2021

U.S. Inflation Is So High. When Could It Ease?

Economists warn higher prices will likely last well into next year, if not beyond (WASHINGTON) — Inflation is starting to look like that unexpected—and unwanted—houseguest who just won’t leave. For months, many economists had sounded a reassuring message that a spike in consumer prices, something that had been missing in action in the U.S. for a generation, wouldn’t stay long. It would prove “transitory,’’ in the soothing words of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and White House officials, as the economy shifted from virus-related chaos to something closer to normalcy. Yet as any American who has bought a carton of milk, a gallon of gas or a used car could tell you, inflation has settled in. And economists are now voicing a more discouraging message: Higher prices will likely last well into next year, if not beyond. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] On Wednesday, the government said its consumer price index soared 6.2% from a year ago — the biggest 12-month jump since 1990. “It’s a large blow against the transitory narrative,’’ said Jason Furman, who served as the top economic adviser in the Obama administration. “Inflation is not slowing. It’s maintaining a red-hot pace.’’ And the sticker shock is hitting where families tend to feel it most. At the breakfast table, for instance: Bacon prices are up 20% over the past year, egg prices nearly 12%. Gasoline has surged 50%. Buying a washing machine or a dryer will set you back 15% more than it would have a year ago. Used cars? 26% more. Although pay is up sharply for many workers, it isn’t nearly enough to keep up with prices. Last month, average hourly wages in the United States, after accounting for inflation, actually fell 1.2% compared with October 2020. Read More: Young People Are Leaving Their Jobs in Record Numbers—And Not Going Back Economists at Wells Fargo joke grimly that the Labor Department’s CPI — the Consumer Price Index — should stand for “Consumer Pain Index.’’ Unfortunately for consumers, especially lower-wage households, it’s all coinciding with their higher spending needs right before the holiday season. The price squeeze is escalating pressure on the Fed to shift more quickly away from years of easy-money policies. And it poses a threat to President Joe Biden, congressional Democrats and their ambitious spending plans. What caused the price spikes? Much of it is the flipside of very good news. Slammed by COVID-19, the U.S. economy collapsed in the spring of 2020 as lockdowns took effect, businesses closed or cut hours and consumers stayed home as a health precaution. Employers slashed 22 million jobs. Economic output plunged at a record-shattering 31% annual rate in last year’s April-June quarter. Everyone braced for more misery. Companies cut investment. Restocking was put off. And a brutal recession ensued. Yet instead of sinking into a prolonged downturn, the economy staged an unexpectedly rousing recovery, fueled by massive government spending and a bevy of emergency moves by the Fed. By spring, the rollout of vaccines had emboldened consumers to return to restaurants, bars and shops. Suddenly, businesses had to scramble to meet demand. They couldn’t hire fast enough to plug job openings — a near record 10.4 million in August — or buy enough supplies to fill customer orders. As business roared back, ports and freight yards couldn’t handle the traffic. Global supply chains became snarled. Costs rose. And companies found that they could pass along those higher costs in the form of higher prices to consumers, many of whom had managed to sock away a ton of savings during the pandemic. “A sizeable chunk of the inflation we’re seeing is the inevitable result of coming out of the pandemic,’’ said Furman, now an economist at the Harvard Kennedy School. Furman suggested, though, that misguided policy played a role, too. Policymakers were so intent on staving off an economic collapse that they “systematically underestimated inflation,” he said. “They poured kerosene on the fire.’’ A flood of government spending — including President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package, with its $1,400 checks to most households in March — overstimulated the economy, Furman said. “Inflation is a lot higher in the United States than it is in Europe,’’ he noted. “Europe is going through the same supply shocks as the United States is, the same supply chain issues. But they didn’t do nearly as much stimulus.’’ In a statement Wednesday, Biden acknowledged that “inflation hurts Americans’ pocketbooks, and reversing this trend is a top priority for me.’’ But he said his $1 trillion infrastructure package, including spending on roads, bridges and ports, would help ease supply bottlenecks. How long will it last? Consumer price inflation will likely endure as long as companies struggle to keep up with consumers’ prodigious demand for goods and services. A resurgent job market — employers have added 5.8 million jobs this year — means that Americans can continue to splurge on everything from lawn furniture to new cars. And the supply chain bottlenecks show no sign of clearing. Read More: Why Literally Millions of Americans Are Quitting Their Jobs “The demand side of the U.S. economy will continue to be something to behold,’’ says Rick Rieder, chief investment officer for global fixed income at Blackrock, “and companies will continue to have the luxury of passing through prices.” Megan Greene, chief economist at the Kroll Institute, suggested that inflation and the overall economy will eventually return to something closer to normal. “I think it it will be ‘transitory’,’’ she said of inflation. “But economists have to be very honest about defining transitory, and I think this could last another year easily.’’ “We need a lot of humility talking about how long this lasts,” Furman said. “I think it’s with us for a while. The inflation rate is going to come down from this year’s blistering pace, but it’s still going to be very, very high compared to the historical norms we have been used to.’’ Will we suffer a return of 1970’S-style ‘stagflation’? The run-up in consumer prices has raised the specter of a return to the “stagflation’’ of the 1970s. That was when higher prices coincided with high unemployment in defiance of what conventional economists thought was possible. Yet today’s situation looks very different. Unemployment is relatively low, and households overall are in good shape financially. The Conference Board, a business research group, found that consumers’ inflation expectations last month were the highest they’d been since July 2008. But consumers didn’t seem all that worried: The board’s confidence index rose anyway, on optimism about the job market. “For the time being, at least, they feel that the benefits are outweighing the negatives,’’ said Lynn Franco, the Conference Board’s senior director of economic indicators. Economic growth, after slowing from July through September in response to the highly contagious delta variant, is thought to be bouncing back in the final quarter of 2021. “Most economists are expecting growth to accelerate in the fourth quarter,” Greene said. “So it doesn’t suggest that we’re facing both a tanking of growth and higher inflation. We’re just facing higher inflation.’’ What should policymakers do? The pressure is on the Fed, which is charged with keeping a lid on inflation, to control prices. “They need to stop telling us that inflation is transitory, start becoming more worried about inflation, then act in a manner consistent with being worried,’’ Furman said. “We’ve seen a little bit of that, but only a little bit.’’ Powell has announced that the Fed will start reducing the monthly bond purchases it began last year as an emergency measure to try to boost the economy. In September, Fed officials also forecast that they would raise the Fed’s benchmark interest rate from its record low near zero by the end of 2022 — much earlier than they had predicted a few months earlier. But sharply higher inflation, should it persist, might compel the Fed to accelerate that timetable; investors expect at least two Fed rate hikes next year. “We’ve been fighting non-existent inflation since the 1990s,’’ said Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting and consulting firm Grant Thornton, “and now we’re talking about fighting an inflation that is real.’’ — AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber contributed to this report......»»

Category: topSource: timeNov 11th, 2021

Virginia"s Become "Ground Zero" For Backlash Against Critical Race Theory Madness

Virginia's Become 'Ground Zero' For Backlash Against Critical Race Theory Madness Op-Ed authored by Eric Louw via The Epoch Times, The election of a Republican governor in Virginia points to a winning formula in the upcoming mid-terms, a key component of which is empowering parents to fight back against Critical Race Theory’s (CRT) indoctrination of their children. Gov-elect Glenn Youngkin’s victory was unexpected because the Democrats had won the governorship of Virginia for the last 12 years and the Democrat candidate, Terry McAuliffe, was popular. More importantly, it looked like a major demographic shift had forever changed Virginian politics in favour of the Democrats, given the growth of a huge suburban population of Washington D.C. bureaucrats in northern Virginia. For many Republicans, it felt like Virginia’s political game had forever been rigged against them by the arrival of these D.C. immigrants. Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin (R-Va.) speaks during an Early Vote rally in Stafford, Va., Oct. 19, 2021. (Win McNamee/Getty Images) But 2021 showed that even with this northern demographic challenge, Republicans can win Virginia if they can develop a powerful enough message. Youngkin built such messages by exploiting the hubris, arrogance, and incompetence that has characterized the Democrats since Biden moved into the White House. Essentially, he pledged to: support parents in their fight against CRT, fund the police, and cut red tape and tax. So appealing were these pledges that they switched hundreds of thousands of votes from Democrat to Republican, especially independent voters. Youngkin was also helped by Biden showing up to campaign alongside McAuliffe. This served to remind voters of the struggles of Biden’s administration, plus how it has empowered the woke-left’s CRT and police defunding agendas. Additionally, Biden’s appearance also reminded voters that Biden does not look in charge. President Joe Biden speaks during a press conference at the White House in Washington on Nov. 6, 2021. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images) His $3 trillion “remake U.S. plan” is gridlocked in Washington. His migration policies caused chaos on the border. And anti-right-wing security on Washington’s streets only serves to make it look as if he does not even control his own capital. But it would seem the core vote shifter was Youngkin’s standing up for parents’ rights to say no to the CRT bullies and to those teachers who want to indoctrinate students with it. Youngkin correctly read the anti-CRT mood across his state. After all, even in the blue northern suburbs of Loudoun County, some parents mobilized against their schools teaching CRT. And so Youngkin has been rewarded with the governorship because he paid attention to the voices of Virginia parents, telling CRT-activists and woke-teachers: “I am not an oppressor, and I am not going to allow you to teach my children your toxic anti-white racism anymore.” Essentially he produced a swing towards the Republicans in every part of Virginia by promising to ban CRT in Virginia schools. Given the mounting parental backlash against the theory across America, it might be helpful to summarize the CRT worldview and objections to this radicalism.  CRT objects to how mainstream (white) Americans see themselves, their country and their history. CRT has the same objection to history as taught in Canada, Australia, and Europe. Its solution is to teach a new kind of history. Former Australian Prime Minister John Howard called this new history “the black armband view” in which everything before European colonialism was apparently wonderful, and everything since has been evil. CRT argues Europeans invented race and racism to justify colonialism and slavery and effectively invented a new updated version of the old Marxist villain-victim idea. For Marxists, capitalists were villains, and workers were victims. For CRT, whites are villains, and blacks are victims. Both models grow out of the resentments of the unsuccessful, but CRT’s answer is to tear down the successful and what they built. The emergence of parental opposition to CRT in the schools reflects a growing realization that the theory represents a truly existential and revolutionary threat to the American way of life. But CRT goes further than just wanting to deconstruct and reconstruct America and its way of life or take down statues. They demand all white individuals must recognize they are racists, which is built into them through language. They also demand that whites must apologize (and recompense black victims) for white racism, for white privilege, and for oppressing black people. Within CRT logic, whites are apparently always inherently racist and inherently privileged. Blacks are always apparently oppressed and can never be racist. If any white person points to the absurdity of these claims, this is taken a proof such a person is racist and “fragile.” CRT allows no escape from its closed circular argument.   Re-education appears to be the only solution, according to the theory. Whites must be taught to recognize their individual “sickness” and the pathology of their society. Then taught to “be sorry,” to take the knee, and to be co-opted into CRT’s plan to deconstruct existing American society. This re-education will take place in schools, universities and through compulsory staff training workshops. Conveniently, CRT activists have created many jobs for themselves by running these workshops. Apparently, revolution can be profitable for some. CRT is a revolutionary project designed to actively disrupt and break the language we use. It is enmeshed with another left-wing project called the “decolonization” of education and the “decolonization” of society. These projects aim to undo the so-called evil of European colonialism plus deconstruct the work of the apparently evil white men who colonized and built America, Canada, and Australia. Building CRT’s postcolonial world is a project as profoundly revolutionary as was Stalin’s communist project of building the “Soviet Man.” Americans need to become aware of what such a project of re-writing their culture; their history, and their language will mean for them. If Americans want to see what “decolonization” of education and society means, just look at what the African National Congress has done in South Africa. This is a project of erasure that is totalitarian in its vision. What is remarkable is that left-leaning liberals cannot see how Orwellian this CRT re-education project is in the way it wants to replace “bad language” and “bad thinking” with new sanitized “social justice” words and “good thinking.” Similarities can be found with Mao Ze Dong’s Cultural Revolution when communist witch hunts forced people to confess their “guilt.” Youngkin’s victory in Virginia should give us all hope. Let this be the beginning of an alliance of Republican politicians and parents who say they are tired of having their children come home from school brainwashed by CRT. Let the message from Virginia be that enough is enough. Vandals attempt to pull down the statue of Andrew Jackson in Lafayette Square near the White House on June 22, 2020. (Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images) Tyler Durden Tue, 11/09/2021 - 19:05.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 9th, 2021

U.S. Taxpayers Bankrolled General Electric. Then It Moved Its Workforce Overseas

When Sam Bansfield first started working as a material handler at General Electric’s Lynn, Massachusetts plant in 2012, she remembers the noise—the loud clanking of her coworkers in the piece-making wing of the jet engine factory. Nowadays, she says, the place is painfully quiet. “You can hear everybody,” she says. “There’s no machines running. There’s… When Sam Bansfield first started working as a material handler at General Electric’s Lynn, Massachusetts plant in 2012, she remembers the noise—the loud clanking of her coworkers in the piece-making wing of the jet engine factory. Nowadays, she says, the place is painfully quiet. “You can hear everybody,” she says. “There’s no machines running. There’s not any work.” Bansfield’s experience resonates across the United States. Since 1989, GE’s domestic labor force has declined by 75%—from 277,000 to just 70,000 workers, according to a new report first reviewed by TIME from the University of Massachusetts, Boston and Cornell University. Part of that decrease can be explained by GE’s decision to sell pieces of its business, including its biopharma and transportation arms. But its manufacturing plants have been gutted too: since the 1980s, production personnel at GE’s Lynn, and Schenectady, New York plants have been cut by 90%. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] This dynamic reflects in many ways a central economic story in the U.S. over the last thirty years. Large corporations have been off-shoring, and down-sizing domestic manufacturing en masse since the 1990s, fueled by noncompetitive labor rates, powerful trade agreements, and innovations in automation. On Tuesday, GE announced that it will divide itself into three public companies—aviation, healthcare and energy. But GE’s disinvestment in America’s domestic labor force is different, the UMass/Cornell report says, because of the volume of state and federal taxpayer grants, tax credits, and subsidies the company received while simultaneously disinvesting in the U.S. economy. GE has drawn roughly $1.6 billion in federal money since Fiscal Year 2000, plus $687 million in state and local awards since 1992, totaling more than $2.2 billion, according to a nonprofit’s subsidy tracker that the report uses. Over roughly the same period, the report says, three out of every four GE jobs in the U.S. disappeared. Take, for example, a $25 billion federal program that provided tax credits to energy companies for every megawatt hour of commercial wind energy they sold between 2007 and 2016. That program had the indirect effect of increasing both the demand for and price of wind turbines, which left GE—the producer of 41% of the wind turbines operating in the U.S. in 2016—in an enviable spot. That would seem like a public policy success story, the researchers say, except many U.S. workers have been left out of the bonanza in recent years: 13 of the 14 LM Wind power plants that GE now lists on its website are located outside the U.S., and its sole production hub of offshore wind turbines is located in Saint-Nazaire, France. Five of its six onshore wind turbine-head assembly facilities are located abroad. GE’s approach has affected American workers. Prior to 2017, when GE acquired LM Wind Power, its Denmark-based wind turbine manufacturer, it relied more heavily on U.S. workers to make its turbine blades. GE had been putting in orders for wind turbine blades at an Aberdeen, South Dakota plant of a small American composites manufacturer called Molded Fiber Glass. GE had been the plant’s only client. So shortly after GE moved its sourcing abroad, roughly 300 Molded Fiber Glass employees lost their jobs. GE indicates it is now scaling up its domestic renewable work. Roughly 500 U.S.-based union jobs off the coast of Martha’s Vineyard will be created to build new Haliade-X wind turbines for a major offshore wind project, says a GE spokesperson. The spokesperson also said the company is considering the “possibility” of opening a facility in New Jersey that would assemble the part of wind turbines that house their electrical generators. But the UMass/Cornell researchers say such investments don’t begin to offset the amount of public funding GE has received over the years. “Taxpayer dollars—in the form of government contracts and subsidies,” the report says, “have bankrolled GE’s transient approach to manufacturing.” Tough to pin down There is no state or federal entity that tracks exactly how much a company like GE receives in public money—which can include loans, tax credits, grants, or other forms of taxpayer funds. The total dollar amount that a company amasses is not subject to mandatory disclosure and is therefore often never made public. The $2.2 billion in public funds that the researchers say GE received is based on data compiled by Good Jobs First, a non-profit economic watchdog based in Washington, DC that lists GE’s federal subsidy awards going back to 2000. Its data is archived by the Library of Congress. GE disputes the figure. Company spokespeople say that $2.2 billion sum included, for example, funds that state and federal governments paid to GE for products and subsidies to companies that were only later acquired by GE. For instance, the power business Alstom received at least $68 million in subsidies between 2002 and 2014, but GE did not purchase Alstom until 2015. A GE spokesperson adds that the $2.2 billion figure included $145 million that GE repaid to Massachusetts after GE scaled back its plans for its Boston headquarters. GE declined to provide another figure indicating the total amount of public funds the company has received in the last thirty years. “While we have not been given the opportunity to review this report, we disagree with its findings based on our continued investments in our workforce and facilities across the country,” according to a statement from GE, which noted that the company has invested more than a billion dollars in expanding its U.S. facilities since 2015. Greg LeRoy, the executive director of Good Jobs First, defended the tracker’s methods and accuracy. It always accrues past subsidy awards to the current controlling corporation because the subsidies often figure into merger and acquisition deals, he said. Alstom, for example, received federal grants totaling more than $12 million the year before GE acquired it, according to the tracker. That cash infusion can “clearly accrue to the financial benefit” of a current corporate owner, LeRoy says. LeRoy added that, if anything, the $2.2 billion figure is likely too low, given GE’s size, geographic reach and tax maneuverability. Funds that are not disclosed by local governments, that arrived in the form of corporate income tax credits, or that were awarded outside the public application processes are nearly impossible to track. Good Jobs First’s LeRoy adds that his researchers were able to identify 68 cases in which GE and its subsidies received public funds, but the dollar value was not made public—and therefore not included in the $2.2 billion sum. Whether GE received more or less than $2.2 billion in government funds is not as important, the researchers argue, than examining whether that public investment ultimately served U.S. goals. In the late 2000s, for example, GE took advantage of a $5 million state grant and a series of tax breaks to announce a multi-million dollar Schenectady renovation project that brought at least 500 high-paying jobs. Half of those jobs focused on developing renewable and alternative energy sources, making Schenectady the hub of GE’s burgeoning renewable energy work. When the renovations were complete, former President Barack Obama visited the factory in 2011 and hyped domestic investment of that kind. “We want an economy that’s fueled by what we invent and what we build,” he said. But four years later, the company stationed the headquarters of its new venture, GE Renewable Energy, in Paris rather than New York state. (GE says it invested $39 million of its own money into the Schenectady project, and that the 500-plus jobs created by the project still exist at the Schenectady plant today.) ANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty ImagesUS President Barack Obama tours the General Electric Plant with GE Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Immelt (L) January 21, 2011 in Schenectady, New York. “GE’s reliance on government subsidies is an indisputable fact,” says Nick Juravich, a primary author on the report and the associate director of the Labor Resource Center at UMass Boston, “as is our government’s willingness to continue awarding subsidies to GE despite its rampant offshoring.” ‘It’s a multiplier industry’ GE’s off-shoring of manufacturing jobs is most clearly felt by U.S. workers themselves. “It’s been an ongoing joke since I’ve been there that GE will close in, like, five years,” says Bansfield, now an inspector at GE’s Lynn factory. The possibility that her job is outsourced or moved abroad now feels so imminent that she’s gone back to school, she says, “just to have a plan B.” Kevin Smith, a former GE quality control worker in Salem, Virginia, says the problem is that communities themselves need a ‘plan B,’ too. In the two years since GE shuttered the Salem plant, which employed more than 200 workers, Smith and many of his colleagues have not been able to get new jobs with comparable pay or benefits. And that has rippled throughout the community, he says, from holiday charity drives to local spending. It’s a similar story in Schenectady, where GE has reduced its workforce from nearly 30,000 unionized hourly production workers in 1970 to approximately 800 unionized hourly production workers now, according to the report. Christian Gonzalez, a 30-year-old castings processor in Schenectady plant’s gas turbine department, remembers a time between 2013 and 2016 when he and 40 to 50 of his colleagues would organize Friday lunches. “We would order out,” he says. “You’re talking hundreds of dollars on a weekly basis patronizing Schenectady small businesses.” Since then, Gonzalez’s team has roughly halved, he says, and they no longer do the big group lunches. Arthur Wheaton, the report’s other primary author and the director of Western NY Labor and Environmental Programs for the Worker Institute at Cornell, says those job losses have a “multiplier effect” on community. “A dollar doesn’t just go to the employees, it goes through the community to all sorts of restaurants, nonprofits, [and] other activities,” he says, and that has “a major impact when you’re cutting thousands and thousands of jobs.” GE says it’s investing in domestic workforce training. Earlier this month, it announced a $4.4 million grant to extend an “advanced manufacturing training” program benefitting Lynn and the Massachusetts’ North Shore, and ​​in 2019, it invested $900,000 in an internal training program. GE remains one of the largest manufacturers in Massachusetts, employing nearly 2,450 people in the state. GE also continues to invest in manufacturing domestically, the report notes, including more than $4.3 billion in its domestic Aviation Division, versus just $1.1 billion abroad since 2010. But the researchers maintain that directing a fire hose of public funds at GE as it simultaneously winds down domestic manufacturing represents a lost opportunity—both for fighting climate change and supporting a healthier U.S. economy. That may be especially true amidst a period in which the White House and majority-rule in Congress is prioritizing renewable energy investments. “There’s a huge amount of growth here,” says Juravich, of the opportunities in the renewable energy market. “The question is whether it’s going to benefit American workers.” GE’s announcement Tuesday that it will split up its businesses into three separate ones doesn’t change the researchers’ calculations. “Whether managed by one company or three, GE’s core industrial businesses rely on government contracts and subsidies and are inextricably intertwined with US industrial policy,” Juravich adds. “We hope that GE’s plan to ‘realize the full potential of each of [their] businesses’ will include re-investing in US workers and communities.”.....»»

Category: topSource: timeNov 9th, 2021

United Airlines May Can Unvaccinated Workers, Even With Exemptions

United May Can Unvaccinated Workers, Even With Exemptions – Court; That, Plus Recent Supreme Court Actions, OKs Most Effective Vax Weapon [soros] Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more United Airlines Can Put Unvaccinated Employees On Unpaid Leave A federal judge in Texas has held that United Airlines can put employees who have refused […] United May Can Unvaccinated Workers, Even With Exemptions – Court; That, Plus Recent Supreme Court Actions, OKs Most Effective Vax Weapon [soros] Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more United Airlines Can Put Unvaccinated Employees On Unpaid Leave A federal judge in Texas has held that United Airlines can put employees who have refused to be vaccinated on unpaid leave, even if they have medical or religious exemptions. This, plus three recent strikes from the Supreme Court, mean that companies seem to have a green light to use the same technique which also proved so effective in fighting the earlier health crisis caused by smoking, says public interest law professor John Banzhaf, who says they should do so regarding of whether court action stays the federal OSHA mandatory vaccine policy for larger companies. The most recent Supreme Court ruling, refusing to block a requirement by Maine that its health care workers be vaccinated against Covid, was especially significant because the Maine rule did not permit exceptions for religious objections, and because it was rendered by the entire court. A similar request to stay a requirement by Indiana University that its students be vaccinated was turned down for the Court by Justice Amy Coney Barrett. But that university’s requirement permitted exceptions for religious, ethical and medical reasons; and they were virtually guaranteed to anyone who sought an exemption. Another legal strike against anti-vaxxers’ legal arguments occurred when the High Court refused to stop a vaccination requirement for virtually all personnel in New York City’s school system. A Green Light For Companies To Use The Same Tactics These three rulings – as well as earlier ones by lower courts and the new one in Texas – provide a green light for companies to use the same tactics which proved so effective in fighting a similar public health crisis, likewise fueled by a massive disinformation campaign, says Banzhaf, who established and then led the nonsmokers’ rights movement which got millions to quit and saved hundreds of billions of dollars. Using a stick is much more effective than a carrot in preventing unnecessary deaths and disabilities from smoking and also now also from Covid, says Banzhaf, who led the successful battle to save millions of smoker lives, and who has already begun contributing to saving lives threatened by Covid. Actually, says Banzhaf, “stick” is a misnomer since the measures proven to be so effective in getting smokers to quit, and now getting holdouts to be vaccinated, aren’t designed to punish their unhealthy conduct, but rather to prevent them from continuing to inflict the damage it causes on the majority in the form of risks to life and health, as well as in huge additional financial costs. It has long been known that warnings and other health messages – even when coupled with incentives such as medical assistance and financial rewards – were not very effective in getting smokers to quit; in part because they had to try to overcome a massive disinformation campaign by the tobacco industry. Bans On Smoking What was effective instead were restrictions and requirements – e.g., bans on smoking on airplanes, at public places, and in workplaces – says Banzhaf, who led the fight for smoking bans during flights and then elsewhere. The purpose was not to punish smokers (a stick) but rather to protect nonsmokers; but, by making it very inconvenient not to quit, many smokers yielded to that incentive, he says. He adds that when companies went further and started insisting on having a smoker-free work force, similar to a drug-free work force, compliance – despite some initial grumbling and treats of quitting – went even higher. In addition, by requiring smokers to bear more of the huge medical and other costs they had been imposing on others, the incentive to quit was substantially increased, and became even more effective. Banzhaf cites as examples the higher premiums he and the NAIC helped persuade health insurance companies to charge smokers, and especially the 50% smoker surcharge he helped to have included under Obamacare. The professor explains that the purpose of these financial moves once again was not so much to punish smokers or to pressure them to quit, but simply so that the huge costs they were imposing – estimated to be over $12,000/yr annually per smoker – would not be borne by nonsmokers in the form of higher taxes, lower workplace benefits, and ballooning health insurance premiums. Making Being Unvaccinated More Inconvenient And Expensive Now experience, backed up by research, is proving that the same strategy – making being unvaccinated more inconvenient and expensive – is, as with smoking, more effective than warnings and cajoling in getting people vaccinated. In other words, making employees and patrons at public venues provide proof of vaccination, requiring those who might be permitted to remain unvaccinated to pay for their own frequent Covid tests, charging higher health and other insurance rates for unvaccinated people (and also for any unvaccinated persons on their plans), and even declining to perform some medical operations on those refusing to be vaccinated, is the most effective way to fight Covid, and to protect the majority of Americans from infection, argues Banzhaf. Surveys suggest that these measures are also favored by a majority of Americans. Here are a few examples: A study in the Journal of the American Medical Association showed that lotteries to encourage vaccinations have little effect – “no statistically significant association” – in achieving that goal. In contrast, New York’s vaccination requirement get some 90% of its health care workers vaccinated. Indeed, the figures from even a month ago demonstrate the amazing effectiveness of New York’s requirement that health workers be vaccinated: Strong Memorial Hospital quickly achieved a 95.5% vaccination rate Albany Medical Center’s vaccination rate leaped to 98% St. Barnabas Hospital went from 20% unvaccinated to about 3% The Mohawk Valley Health System went up from 70% to about 96% Delta Airlines Achieved An Over 80% Compliance Rate United Airlines, one of the first big companies to require workers to be vaccinated or lose their jobs, found that, despite initial grumbling, about 99% of its employees agreed to be vaccinated. Similarly, Delta Airlines achieved an over 80% compliance rate by charging those who decline to be vaccinated a $200-per-month health insurance surcharge. Ochsner Health, the largest nonprofit health care system in Louisiana, now has the same surcharge. After Tyson Foods announced a vaccine requirement in early August, its vaccination rate jumped from 50% to at least 80%, even before the deadline for getting a shot. Novant Health in North Carolina, which originally announced that 375 of its 35,000 employees had been suspended and would soon be fired for being unvaccinated, found that 200 of the 375 finally did get vaccinated to keep their jobs, Despite a few widely reported situations where many employees threatened to quit – usually in situations where defiance was encouraged and led by recalcitrant unions – vaccine requirements have generally been very effective, are gaining in public support, have largely been upheld by the courts, and have lead to very few actual firings – the same results which occurred many years ago when companies first banned smoking on the job, and later even off the job. Making those who refuse to be vaccinated bear the consequences of their decisions – i.e., imposing some “personal responsibility” – has proven to be a very effective weapon in saving lives, and in helping to return life (especially life in the workplace and in many public places) to a near normal, with even less need if any for the vaccinated to be burdened with mask requirements, proclaims Banzhaf. Updated on Nov 9, 2021, 2:42 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkNov 9th, 2021

Why 1 million mushrooms are getting destroyed every week

The labor shortage is hitting America's mushroom capital, as farms are having to kill off crops because of a lack of mushroom pickers. 60% of America's mushrooms come from one small Pennsylvania town: Kennett Square. But because of strict immigration laws and high turnover, there aren't enough mushroom pickers. It's forced farmers across Kennett Square to kill off mushrooms they can't pick in time, causing millions of dollars in losses. We visited America's mushroom capital to find out what caused the labor shortage and if the industry can recover. Following is a transcription of the video:Narrator: Farmers grow, harvest, and pack nearly 400 million mushrooms a year in this small Pennsylvania town.Chris: This is Kennett Square, the mushroom capital of the world.Narrator: Here, they cultivate everything from white button and portobello to specialty mushrooms like shiitake and lion's mane. But the industry's facing a major problem. There aren't enough mushroom pickers.Sonya: Demand is starting to rise, but it's hard to meet that demand if there's not enough labor.Narrator: One big reason for that is America's strict immigration laws that are keeping workers away. Without the extra hands, many farmers have been forced to kill off entire crops. It's estimated more than a million mushrooms every week are getting destroyed.Sonya: You're are steaming off rooms with mushrooms that could be harvested that just had nowhere to go.Chris: And that's not just my farm. That's farms in California and Texas and all over the country.Narrator: And it's left businesses like this one on the brink.Chris: We're losing about $50,000 to $100,000 of revenue per month.Narrator: So why is the industry struggling to find workers? And how can it recover? We went to Pennsylvania to find out.All of mushroom life starts here, with compost.Glenn: The mushrooms here are very picky eaters.Narrator: The mushrooms eat a strict diet of recycled mulch, hay, wheat, straw, poultry litter, and corncob.Glenn: So this is the material near the end of the composting process. It's dark, caramelized. It's soft. It has a lot of water.Narrator: The mushroom spores, or seeds, are added in. Then it's aged, pasteurized, and trucked to farms across the county, like this one.Chris: I'm Chris, and I'm a third-generation mushroom farmer.Narrator: Chris' family has been growing white button and cremini mushrooms since 1938.Chris: Mushrooms are grown indoors so that we can control the environment.Narrator: It all happens on vertical shelves. Workers use this machine to lay the compost down. Then comes the layer called casing, with peat moss, limestone, and water.Chris: This equipment allows us to have the machine do the heavy work.Narrator: It helps get a perfect 1.75-inch layer, so the mushrooms don't grow unevenly or come up dirty. This panel controls the growing conditions. They want a perfect combination of carbon dioxide, humidity, and temperature. Chris: After 16 days, we're ready to harvest.Narrator: But it's harvesters who are hardest to find.Chris: We're always harvesting. The only day we don't work is Christmas. That did not stop because of the pandemic. Our workers were considered essential. Now that the economy started to pick back up, we're down 20% on our workforce, and it's been a major impact on our business.Narrator: The mushrooms are grown and harvested in three breaks, or phases, meaning each room will get picked from three times, starting with the biggest mushrooms. Then they'll wait for the little ones to mature.Alejandro: You have to see the size of the mushroom's stem. If it's long, that's good. That means it's time to cut it. If it's short, like me, you have to wait for the next day. Then it'll be good.Narrator: Mushrooms double in size every 24 hours, so pickers have to move quickly. Each armed with a knife, a cart, and tons of boxes. They harvest every mushroom by hand.Daniel: You kind of twist the mushrooms, you don't put no dirt.Sonya: 220 mushrooms to fill up a 10-pound box.Daniel: 10 an hour. That can give you a good prospect. Some people, they do more than 15, 16 an hour. They're fast.Narrator: Daniel Beltran and his daughter, Sonya, run Masda Farms, just up the road.Daniel: I'm the second Mexican to grow mushrooms in the whole United States.Narrator: Daniel worked as a mushroom picker for over 12 years.Daniel: And I was thinking on my mind, I said, "I hope one day I get a farm."Narrator: Today, he and Sonya own 25 mushroom houses.Daniel: We probably need close to what, 80 harvesters every day, and we have 60.Alejandro: Some years ago, there were lots of us. We were quick at this job, We were done by midday and went home to rest.Narrator: Today, harvesters work up to 12-hour days to pick as many mushrooms as they can.Alejandro: We have to get in at 3 in the morning, so I think that will be hard on any personNarrator: But they still can't keep up.Alejandro: They accumulate, and there's even more the next day. You go crazy seeing so many mushrooms.Chris: We should be harvesting 10 rooms of mushrooms every day, and we usually only can get to seven or eight rooms.Narrator: In the leftover rooms, the mushrooms will be steamed off, meaning they'll be destroyed. It's a race against time, because mushrooms grow so quickly. Waiting even one day means ...Alejandro: It develops cracks. In English we say "it's open," and that's not good for the factory.Narrator: And customers don't like that, so the value decreases.Chris: We're about $0.35 a pound instead of a dollar a pound.Sonya: It kind of like, hurts a little bit, thinking of - seriously, there's nowhere that you could probably put this, and there really isn't. There's nothing you can do.Narrator: It gets even worse for specialty mushrooms that require even more labor. Like these shiitakes at Phillips Mushroom Farms.Pete: It usually takes three days to pick the whole house. That's still all done by hand, so it's still labor-intensive.Narrator: Or these maitakes.Pete: Each one of these logs has to be moved by hand. Put them on a shelf to spawn-run, then we take them off the shelf and bring them down here, put them on this shelf to pick, and then we have to pick them. And then we also have to throw it away. There's six touches in the course of this thing's life cycle. Every touch is a person, which are hard to come by nowadays.Narrator: But the labor issues don't just stop at harvest. They can also be felt at the packing level. Meghan is the third-generation of her family to run Mother Earth Organic Mushrooms.Meghan: This pallet of mushrooms was just brought in from our farms, and then we get it in to one of our two coolers. Everything is labeled so that we know exactly what farm it came from, the date it came in, and how many pounds are brought in, and it's all in our system so we can easily trace back all of our product.Narrator: Meghan has machines to wash and cut the mushrooms, and even to wrap and label the boxes. But everything in between, from topping off a box to tracking and weighing, is done by hand.Meghan: And then it'll get put in a flat at the end and get palletized to go out to the customer.Narrator: Mother Earth delivers mushrooms as far as Denver, Texas, and Boston. But getting them there is tough with so few workers.Meghan: So, it used to just be harvesters that were harder to get. Now it's at our harvesting level, at our supervisor level, at our quality assurance level, even our office staff level. Truck drivers have been really hard to find, as well. The problem is, is that they can't get them harvested at the farms, that means we don't have the mushrooms for the packing facility. It's a complete ripple effect.Narrator: So how did the industry's labor problem become so dire? Well, it starts with Kennet Square's history of immigration. Quakers, a Protestant Christian group, were the first to grow mushrooms here in 1885. As the story goes ...Chris: Originally, a Quaker farmer who grew carnations tried to grow mushrooms under the beds of the carnations, and he was successful.Narrator: The Quakers then hired Italian immigrants to do the hard manual labor. The Italians then started hundreds of mushroom farms of their own in the area. From the 1950s to the 70s, former sugar cane workers from Puerto Rico settled into Kennett Square and took over picking the mushrooms. But when they began asking for higher wages and better working conditions, farm owners fired them and hired Mexican immigrants instead.In 1986, President Ronald Reagan signed an immigration bill that gave legal status to certain undocumented agricultural workers who came into the country before 1982.Daniel: That really, really helped for all the Mexican workers. Most Mexicans work in the mushroom industry for, I would say, at least 40 years.Narrator: They built Kennett Square into America's mushroom capital. It now produces 60% of the country's product. But that population of Mexican immigrants is aging out of this work, and their kids have chosen other career paths.Daniel: We started getting people from Central America now.Narrator: Even before the pandemic, these new workers began leaving for other industries.Leo: There's people that say, "Oh, like, you go to construction or you go to landscaping, make more money."Narrator: To make things worse, strict immigration laws in the US have suffocated the legal flow of Central and Latin American workers. Because mushrooms are a year-round crop, the industry doesn't qualify for the H-2A temporary worker program, which allows immigrants to come into the US and work in seasonal agriculture. The labor crunch is affecting every mushroom farm, both small and large.To entice the few pickers left, farm owners are offering perks: higher pay, housing, and transportation to and from work.Chris: Our harvesters work on a piece rate, we pay them per box. My average harvester earns over $14 an hour, but I have some harvesters that make over $20 an hour. I would like to pay them more. The company just can't afford to yet. Agriculture in general, and mushroom farms specifically, work on very thin margins. So when we can't harvest 10% of our product, we're definitely losing money.Narrator: Chris is losing $40,000 in revenue a week.Glenn: For this current year, we probably have lost somewhere in the middle of $250,000.Daniel: It's millions around. Sonya: Yes. Daniel: It's not thousands. It's millions, realistic. It is painful.Chris: If this happens, farms will either have to reduce their scale and fill less growing rooms, or they eventually would have to shut down.Narrator: All together, Chester County's mushroom farmers lost $168 million in 2020. And that has a significant effect on the market, which is booming in popularity.Chris: For the last 10 years, we're seeing a demand increase of 3% to 5% every year.Narrator: Sales in grocery stores have gone up by 15% in 2021.Chris: Customers are asking every day to fill their orders, and we just don't have enough mushrooms to do that. So it's difficult to want to expand, want to provide all the orders that they want, and then see mushrooms just go to waste.Narrator: The solution for the labor issue isn't an easy one. Farmers have already automated much of the process. Some have turned to growing bigger mushrooms.Meghan: If you grow a larger mushroom, it actually makes it a lot faster for the harvesters to pick them, so we can get them quicker here, and get them out to our customers and do it with less labor.Narrator: The American Mushroom Institute is pushing the Senate to pass the Farmworker Modernization Act. The bill would extend the H-2A temporary program to the mushroom industry. That way, immigrants could get an agricultural worker visa to pick mushrooms.Chris: We need more migrant workers, we need more ability to bring people up to the country. Just like our grandparents did - they came up and worked two jobs and worked hard to make a better life for ourselves. And we need to continue to have America do that for new immigrant populations.Narrator: Others in the industry are considering robot pickers, though not everyone thinks they're the best option.Leo: You can't really get a machine to be as delicate as a person's hand to choose exactly which mushroom. You also have to have, like, the eye to see which one is ready to pick.Narrator: Robots like this are still three years away. Until then, farmers will keep putting out the call for anybody to come help pick mushrooms.Daniel: Every mushroom gives you an extra day of life. So if you eat 20, 20 extra days.Leo: Actually, I don't even like eating mushrooms. I don't like the taste. I don't like any of that. But like, I like seeing how they grow, you know?Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytNov 8th, 2021

5 Staffing Stocks to Buy on October"s Impressive Jobs Report

Hiring is finally rebounding after a dull summer, which is likely to benefit staffing companies like KornFerry International (KFY), Cross Country Healthcare (CCRN) and Kforce (KFRC). As the economy continues to reopen, industries are getting back to functioning, and people have started finding new jobs. Those furloughed last year due to the pandemic are also being rehired. This saw hiring at U.S. companies finally rebounding in October to the maximum since July.The rebound comes as more people are now going back to work as they are vaccinated. The jump in new job creations and hiring is thus directly helping staffing companies as they are getting busy helping people find jobs.Hiring Surges in OctoberThe Labor Department said on Nov 5 that U.S. companies added 531,000 jobs in October, the highest since July. Interestingly, hiring jumped at a record pace in July, the fastest in almost a year, as the economy started functioning in full swingbut slowed again during summer.However, things finally seem to be changing, as millions of vaccinated people are now confident about going back to work. Industries,too are getting back to functioning at the optimum level, increasing demand for workers.This has resulted in employers stepping up hiring. Also, the Labor Department report showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.6% in October from 4.8% in September. Although the rate is higher than the pre-pandemic levels, it is still one of the lowest in recent times.The report further showed that while hiring was on the higher side in October,it wasn’t as weak as initially reported in August and September. The hiring estimate by the government for August and September was revised by a combined 235,000 jobs.Moreover, hiring in October increased across all sectors expect for government employers reporting loss of jobs. Shipping and warehousing companies added 54,000 jobs, while retailers reported a gain of 35,000 new jobs. The leisure and hospitality sector, which includes restaurants, bars, hotels and entertainment venues, added 164,000 jobs.Signs of Economic RecoveryHigher job additions, particularly in the retail, and leisure and hospitality sectors showed signs of economic reopening followed by a steady recovery. Widespread vaccination has made people confident about planning vacations and eating out.Also, consumer confidence, which had taken a hit in the past few months, bounced back in October as fears of the Delta variant of coronavirus eased somewhat. Consumer confidence increased to 113.8 in October from September’s reading of 109.8.The retail sector too has been trying to bounce back, with sales jumping 0.7% in September. Sales at restaurants grew 0.3% month over month in September and 29.5% year over year. This once again shows that the above industries are making a fast recovery, which is helping to drive hiring.Also, average hourly earnings for employees jumped 4.9% in October on a year-over-year basis. The jump in hiring and a decline in unemployment is backed by a steady decline in COVID-19 cases. This is likely to further boost consumer confidence in the coming days and encourage employers to hire more.Our ChoicesHiring will be on the rise as the economy further reopens. This thus makes for an ideal opportunity to invest in staffing stocks.KornFerry International KFY is the world's leading and largest executive recruitment firm with the broadest global presence in the executive recruitment industry.The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is more than 100%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improved 23.8% over the past 60 days. KornFerry International carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Kforce KFRC is a full-service, web-based specialty staffing firm, providing flexible and permanent staffing solutions toorganizations and career management for individuals in the specialty skill areas of information technology, finance & accounting, human resources, engineering, pharmaceutical, health care, legal, e-solutions consulting, scientific and insurance and investments.The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 35.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improved 10.3% over the past 60 days. Kforce sports a Zacks Rank #1.Robert Half International Inc. RHI is one of the world's largest providers of professional consulting and staffing services. The company's specialized staffing divisions include Accountemps, Robert Half Finance & Accounting and Robert Half Management Resources for temporary, full-time and senior-level project professionals, respectively.The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 95.9% The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improved 5.4% over the past 60 days. Robert Half International has a Zacks Rank #1.Cross Country Healthcare, Inc. CCRN is a national leader in providing innovative healthcare workforce solutions and staffing services. Their diverse client base includes both clinical and nonclinical settings, servicing acute care hospitals, physician practice groups, outpatient and ambulatory-care centers, nursing facilities, both public schools and charter schools, rehabilitation and sports medicine clinics, government facilities, and homecare.The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is more than 100%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improved 44.9% over the past 60 days. Cross Country Healthcare has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).DLH DLHC serves clients throughout the United States as a full-service provider of healthcare, logistics, and technical support services to DoD and Federal agencies. Its healthcare delivery solutions include professional services, such as case management, health and injury assessment, critical care, medical/surgical, emergency room/trauma center, counseling, behavioral health and trauma brain injury, medical systems analysis, and medical logistics, and allied support services in the areas of MRI technology, diagnostic sonography, phlebotomy, dosimetry, physical therapy and pharmaceuticals. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 28.8%. DLH shares have gained 16.6% in the past 30 days. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. Bitcoin, Like the Internet Itself, Could Change Everything Blockchain and cryptocurrency has sparked one of the most exciting discussion topics of a generation. Some call it the “Internet of Money” and predict it could change the way money works forever. If true, it could do to banks what Netflix did to Blockbuster and Amazon did to Sears. Experts agree we’re still in the early stages of this technology, and as it grows, it will create several investing opportunities. Zacks’ has just revealed 3 companies that can help investors capitalize on the explosive profit potential of Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies with significantly less volatility than buying them directly. See 3 crypto-related stocks now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report KornFerry International (KFY): Free Stock Analysis Report Robert Half International Inc. (RHI): Free Stock Analysis Report Kforce, Inc. (KFRC): Free Stock Analysis Report Cross Country Healthcare, Inc. (CCRN): Free Stock Analysis Report DLH Holdings Corp. (DLHC): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksNov 8th, 2021

Hundreds Of Thousands To Go On Four-Day Nationwide Strike Over Vaccine Mandates

Hundreds Of Thousands To Go On Four-Day Nationwide Strike Over Vaccine Mandates Authored by Enrico Trigoso via The Epoch Times, A massive, nationwide strike against vaccine mandates will take place from Nov. 8 to Nov. 11, according to the main organizer for the walkout, Leigh Dundas, a human rights attorney and public speaker. The event will kick off in Los Angeles on Monday. The locations of the marches have not yet been disclosed. The walkouts involve people from various industries such as trucking and telecom. Air and rail transport workers are not federally allowed to go on strike due to a law passed in 1926 named the Railway Labor Act, but some plan to protest anonymously. “The Golden Gate Bridge Rally is going to be an epic and unprecedented moment in time. It will mark—on Veterans’ Day evening—a 4-day Nationwide walkout, by rank and file workers everywhere, from blue-collar to white-collar, black, white, yellow, red, every faith, every creed, who are uniquely united despite their differences on one common truth: that vaccine mandates have no place in a truly free society,” Dundas told The Epoch Times. “Every group: anti-vaccine, BLM, gay, straight, Jewish, Muslim, Native American, Asian, Latino, Christian, atheist—all groups—are coming together for this one historic moment in time—to trumpet not just to our own government, but indeed to the watching eyes of the world, that vaccine mandates will no longer be tolerated. That in this country, WE are the government, because our founding fathers knew this truth: a truly free nation is a nation of the people, by the people, and for the people. That we are the leaders we have been waiting for. And that today marks the day that we retire vaccine mandates as a concept that cannot live in a free society, and that we are, indeed, simply that: a free society.” Leigh Dundas (Photo provided by Nationwide Walkout to The Epoch Times) The Epoch Times talked to some of these frustrated workers who will participate in the strike to see why they are doing it. ‘I Choose God’s Immunity’ Kristen Grace has been a Raytheon Systems Engineer for 18 years. “I will lose my livelihood on December 8, because I won’t allow an experimental gene therapy to be injected into my bloodstream. I’ve recovered from COVID, and I work from home, but the government has claimed authority over my body and medical choices. I choose natural (God’s) immunity over government,” Grace said. Brandon Childs has been serving for 7 years in the Air Force, 5 years in active duty and 2 years with the Arizona Air National Guard (ANG). “I have stepped away from being ANG full time due to the mandate and I was promised by my civilian job that they would never require the vaccine. “However as an army contractor that changed within the last month. I’ve lost 3 family members in the last year one being my father a week ago. I’ve put in RE’s [religious exemptions] at both and was told that the chances of being accepted are extremely dismal and I will face what looks like a general or dishonorable discharge (with a clean military record) from one and termination for the other. Affecting the benefits I have worked for and bled for the country I love.” Another systems engineer that has been working for Raytheon for 25 years told The Epoch Times: “I’ve submitted a Notification of Religious Accommodation. If it’s not approved, I’ll be fired on December 8th because I’m not going to violate my beliefs or surrender my Constitutional rights for a job. Honestly, this is the most stressful year of my professional life. I’ve lost many nights of sleep. Even if approved I’ll likely continue to look for a new job. “I feel betrayed by a company I’ve given my best years. They could have stood up for us but they put profits and the ‘woke’ agenda first. I’m surrounded by fully vaccinated people with new and mysterious health issues, many have gotten COVID, but I’m treated like someone unclean, less than. Science, logic, and common sense have been tossed in the COVID dumpster fire. While I love my country, I’m ashamed of my company and my government. The only good news is that even the fully vaccinated now realize the promise of normality was all a lie. Now they are once again masked and being told boosters will be mandatory. And they are now rising up too,” the engineer said. Health Information Privacy Christopher Burns, an attorney that works in Portsmouth New Hampshire, said: “For the first time in the history of the country the president and an entire political party seem to think it’s constitutionally appropriate to dictate to a private employer how to treat its private employees by requiring the employer to demand privately protected health information from the employee.” Jet, a Honeywell employee, feels disappointed and is depressed about his company mandating the vaccine, which he is determined not to take due to his religious beliefs. “I have so many feelings about this situation that it has gotten me into a state of depression. Never in a million years [had] I imagined that something like this would happen in the United States. This is what tyranny looks like and it’s not going to stop here. Equally disappointing is to see that Honeywell, along with the rest of major U.S. corporations have decided to go along and enable tyranny. I’m not getting the vaccine. I have applied for a religious exemption. If not granted, so be it. Because of this mandate, we’re now going to be treated as second-class citizens. In case people have forgotten, this is the definition of tyranny: cruel and unfair treatment by people with power over others.” A consultant for Thomson Reuters who does not even work physically at the company is bewildered at why he should take the vaccine. “I have been working [for Reuters for] 13 years and at least 3 consultants are 100 percent remote, 2,000 miles away from the office! They say because the company has government contracts that means I have to abide by the mandate too. “How am I endangering anybody from my home?” the consultant asked. John Knox is part of the LA Firefighters for Freedom. “We are fighting against these unconstitutional mandates because anything that is repugnant to the constitution is illegal. These mandates clearly step outside the constitutional parameters. As firefighters and first responders we need to take a stand and we need to let the rest of America know we will fight and they can join us,” Knox said. ‘It Is Against Our Rights as Americans’ A Maine 3rd Grade School teacher thinks the COVID vaccines should not be mandated. “People have the right to make the choices that work best for their families and for themselves. I feel it is against our rights as Americans. Why are we dying on this sword?” the teacher asked. Amtrak’s vaccine mandate deadline is also on Dec 8, an employee told The Epoch Times about her situation under the condition of anonymity. “Employees with religious exemptions are either 1. Denied with no explanation, or 2. ‘Approved’ for unpaid ‘personal leave,’ and not allowed to seek other work while on involuntary ‘personal leave.’  This ‘accommodation’ is exceptionally harsh and retaliatory, considering that medical exemption employees are permitted to continue work with weekly testing, including full customer contact workers such as conductors,” she said. “Any employee not in compliance with the vax mandate will be charged with insubordination and terminated, per Amtrak repeated internal announcements.” Eric Mallow, a railroader, said: “The longer we comply with their tyranny, the worse this will get! We were absolutely essential last year and now we are completely expendable. Standing up for the rights of Americans far outweighs the difficulty of leaving a company that sees me as an insignificant number.” A secretary from Arizona told The Epoch Times that the mandates are a “total violation” of her freedom. “Where does this end?  If they can force vaccines in our bodies and violate our will that way, where is the line drawn?  We need to fight back and not allow this,” the secretary said. The Epoch Times reached out to Amtrak and Raytheon for comment. Tyler Durden Mon, 11/08/2021 - 15:26.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytNov 8th, 2021

Courageous LA County Sheriff Tells The Truth About COVID Vax Mandates

Courageous LA County Sheriff Tells The Truth About COVID Vax Mandates Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us, The battle over the attempted forced vaccination of 100% of the American population regardless of scientific reason or prudence has brought out the absolute worst within a certain group of people in our society. They are showing their true colors as the authoritarians they really are, desperately clamoring for the power to compel people they don’t know or care about to submit to an experimental covid “vaccine” with no long term testing to prove its safety. I noted this trend in detail in my recent article ‘Noam Chomsky Goes Off The Deep End – Proving All Socialism Leads To Tyranny’, and I have to say, there are some folks out there that are shockingly monstrous just under the surface. It makes one realize how the dictatorships and genocides of the 20th Century were made possible. Historians tend to blame the idea of the “charismatic dictator” for the rise of totalitarianism within any given culture, as if all it takes is a single well dressed and well spoken figure with the ability to manipulate the emotional output of the masses into doing things they would not otherwise do. This is a fantasy. In reality, dictators and oligarchs cannot come to power without the avid support of a certain subset of the population that WANTS and LOVES tyranny. That is to say, authoritarians in government appeal to the rotten core of the worst of humanity – the sociopaths, the narcissists, the psychopaths, the control freaks and micromanagers. They work hand-in-hand with the aberrant and the fearful, the deceitful and the grotesque, and they align with such people to make it appear as though authoritarianism is an overwhelming desire of the majority when it is actually the deviant thirst of an aggressive minority. Of course, as in physics, there is no action within human society without an equal and opposite reaction. Just as the covid mandates have brought out the worst in some people, they have also brought out the best in others. The people who love and respect logic, reason and individual liberty are massing. We are legion, and I have been consistently surprised at how many of us there are within government institutions including law enforcement. The Sheriff of LA County, Alex Villanueva, proved his courage this week with a public media address covering the destructive effects of the covid mandates on his own department, using cold hard data to show that thousands of personnel and deputies, 30% of the Sheriff’s department, will be leaving or will be forced out of work by LA County if the vaccine mandates move forward in January. He also faced down a torrent of some of the dumbest and most vitriolic questions I have ever heard from a crowd of clearly biased “journalists” (i.e. leftist activists) scrambling to cast doubt on the sheriff and his data. I recommend watching Sheriff Villanueva’s even handed and rational presentation in full here: Keep in mind that the Sheriff is a vaccinated person, but he continues to defend the rights of his deputies to make personal informed decisions on the jab. Being anti-mandate does not mean a person is necessarily “anti-vax”. I think the sheriff did an admirable job presenting his case so I won’t rehash it here. However, what I do want to talk about is some of the INSANE rhetoric coming form the reporters in the crowd as they tried to confront and brow-beat him on his information and personal stance. There were some facts that the Sheriff put forward that the media seemed to be especially triggered by, so let’s talk about these issues for a moment… Covid Mandates Are Not Laws Multiple leftist reporters were extremely perturbed by the notion that Sheriff Department personnel could be “allowed” to defy the mandates at all. This was perhaps the most revealing line of questioning from the media, showcasing their complete lack of knowledge on constitutional law and their inherent hunger for control. Primarily, the questioning asserted that deputies and other staff would be “breaking the law” by refusing to comply with the mandates, and the media compared non-compliance with the jab to criminal non-compliance with a traffic stop. Sheriff Villanueva rightly reminded reporters that covid mandates are NOT laws. The reporters didn’t seem to understand. One of them even suggested that this argument was “semantics”. No, it is not semantics. If mandates are “laws”, then our country’s legal system should be done away with entirely and all decisions should be made from on high by executive fiat, making people like Biden and his handlers dictators by default. Laws are passed by legislatures or voted on by the citizenry in the US. The vax mandates are what is called “Color of Law”; they are dictates passed down by executive order or through bureaucracy with no checks and balances and are presented as laws when they are not. There is no allowance for “mandates” in the US Constitution, and I would also remind covid cultists that there is also no allowance for “emergency powers” within the Bill of Rights. The government does not get to wake up one day and decide which rights you are allowed to have and which rights you are not allowed to have based on their arbitrary perception of a national emergency. Our rights our sacrosanct and not subject to the whims of government. One reporter asks if the Sheriff is supporting the idea that people should be allowed to pick and choose which laws they want to obey. The Sheriff says of course not, but this question is disingenuous at its core and assumes that “laws” are sacred in and of themselves. If a law is unconstitutional and immoral, then yes, each person absolutely has the right to shrug off that law. Laws do not matter. All that matters is what is right and what is wrong. One would hope that our society’s laws will reflect our society’s values and principles, but sometimes they stand in direct opposition to our moral compass. Covid mandates are not laws, and even if they were they would be both unconstitutional and immoral laws that do not deserve our respect. There is nothing wrong with refusing to obey an illegal and immoral order. Covid Cultists Don’t Think People Should Be Allowed To Leave Their Jobs Without Punishment I always thought that losing one’s job WAS supposed to be the punishment for being unvaxxed. Apparently this is not enough for the covid cultists. Reporters insinuate that people who don’t comply with the vax should be criminally prosecuted under the mandates (which are not laws), just as a person would be criminally prosecuted for not complying with a deputy during a traffic stop. This confirms my suspicion that leftists did not expect such a large number of people to risk their jobs to defy the mandates. Leftists and pro-authoritarians have no concept of valuing principles over one’s own comfort or safety, and so the large national opposition to the mandates has caught them off guard. Now they are facing the prospect that THEY will have to suffer real world consequences for their support of vax authoritarianism, and the leftists don’t like that. The Sheriff logically outlines the facts on the ground in terms of personnel and how many will be leaving or will be fired due to the mandates, and the numbers hit hard. With at least 30% of the department gone, law enforcement in LA County will be effectively crippled. They are already short-staffed as it is because of the LA County Board Of Supervisors and their woke agenda to “defund the police”. Suddenly, losing their police force is not sitting well with those same woke activists. The media was very aggressive in trying to cast doubt on the idea that many deputies and staff were leaving because of the mandates, which the Sheriff squashed immediately by making it clear that the losses could only be attributed to vax requirements and any other suggestion would be disingenuous. The bottom line is this: The system as we know it will shut down if the mandates are enforced. This is why Joe Biden and friends are waiting to enforce the mandates until AFTER the Christmas season. They know that businesses and industries across the board will be hobbled by the loss of 30% or more of their workers and that many government institutions will be unable to function with the loss of 10% of staff, let alone 30% or more. The media is already trying to paint the narrative that people forced out of their jobs because of the mandates are the BAD GUYS, not the victims. This is classic leftist gaslighting. They attack the population with their edicts, they offer a non-choice in terms of compliance, and then when a large number of people choose to make sacrifices rather than submit, the authoritarians label those people “criminals.” In other words, the message is: “Because you will not submit to my tyranny, you are hurting society. Your lack of submission to my authoritarianism is an attack on me and the greater good.” The Narrative Is More Important To Covid Cultists Than The Facts Reporters then argued that the Sheriff should be “evangelizing” for the vaccines instead of giving such a presentation. I find this use of language interesting. I have long said that pro-vaxxers are a kind of cult that ignores the science and has turned the national medical response into a political witch hunt against conservatives and liberty minded people. The media thinks the Sheriff of LA County should be “evangelizing” to his staff, which means they want him to stop publicly sharing data that disagrees with their religion because it could derail what they believe to be a “righteous crusade”. But the vax mandates have nothing to do with public health and everything to do with public control. Sheriff Villanueva rightly points out that people who are vaccinated should not be worried about the vax status of the person next to them. As I have argued over and over again ever since the vaccines were introduced: If the vaccines work then the unvaccinated pose no threat whatsoever to the vaccinated. If they don’t work, then why are they trying to mandate them in the first place? Vaccinated people still actively spread the virus. Highly vaccinated countries like Israel have the highest infection rates in the world. Vaccinated people make up the bulk of hospitalizations and deaths in majority vaccinated countries. Unvaccinated people who have natural immunity are up to 27 times more protected from covid than people who take the vaccines. These are the facts. Furthermore, the media absolutely refuses to openly discuss the actual death rate of the covid virus. The median Infection Fatality Rate of covid is a mere 0.27% according to the medical establishment and numerous peer reviewed studies. Who are the unvaxxed a threat to? 0.2% of the population? Why don’t those people take the vax and leave the rest of us alone? Does the science not matter anymore? There is no evidence that shows that the unvaccinated pose a threat to anyone. None. Zero. Yet, covid cultists are calling for the unvaxxed to suffer joblessness, poverty and possibly criminal prosecution for refusing to comply. This is madness, and when you allow insane people to take control of your society, collapse is sure to follow. I suspect that the media will attempt to bury this presentation by Sheriff Villanueva because it destroys the narrative that an overwhelming majority of law enforcement and other government employees are on board with the vax mandates. It also runs contrary to a number of lies surrounding the justifications for the experimental vaccines in general. Finally, the media reaction is so ridiculous and unhinged that one immediately sees the difference between the covid cult and a normal rational person like the Sheriff. They come off as zealots while he presents as wise. I applaud his reserve and calm demeanor in the face of such rabid stupidity, and I applaud his bravery in standing for truth in an era when truth is vilified. *  *  * If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE. Tyler Durden Mon, 11/08/2021 - 13:10.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytNov 8th, 2021

Gen Z and millennials actually want the same things at work. But Gen Z has the upper hand.

Both Gen Z and millennials crave flexibility and a work-life balance. Millennials paved the path, but pandemic enabled Gen Z to finish the work. Gen Z is ready for flexibility. Su Arslanoglu/Getty Images Millennials and Gen Z want the same things at work: flexibility and wellbeing. While millennials have advocated for these things, the Great Recession made them more risk-averse, prioritizing job security. The pandemic and remote work have led Gen Z to demand more change with more boldness. Gen Z workers have got their millennial bosses shaking in their boots.So declared the The New York Times' Emma Goldberg in an article that caught the Internet's attention last week, which examined the latest in generational workplace culture: Millennials are afraid of Gen Zers, who are confidently and assertively demanding a better work-life balance.The TikTok generation delegates to their bosses, isn't shy about asking for mental health days, works less once accomplishing their daily tasks, and sets their own hours, Goldberg wrote. It's coming as a shock to work-obsessed millennials, whose careers have always seen overworked and structured days. But here's the thing: Although millennials and Gen Z may work differently, they want the same things in the workplace. Both generations experience more anxiety and stress than older generations, and both equally prioritize mental-health benefits and work-life balance.A PwC survey all the way back in 2013 found that millennials wanted to structure their jobs around their daily schedules, exactly the same type of flexibility that Gen Z said they desired in a 2019 study by recruiting platform Yello. According to a 2020 Gallup Poll, millennials and Gen Z both prioritize employers that care about their wellbeing; this was all before The Great Resignation.The difference is in how the generations approach these priorities at work, which has a lot to do with the economic crises each generation ran into after graduation. Millennials, who entered a dismal labor force broken by the Great Recession, were keen for change but risk-averse. Gen Z, on the other hand, saw sharper swings in both directions - which included both an even steeper drop into recession, and the fastest jobs recovery on record. It's so dramatic that job openings and labor shortages are both at historic highs, and they have their pick of work in the most flexible economy in memory.Millennials just wanted job security when they were in Gen Z's positionThe financial crisis of 2008 sent the oldest millennials stumbling across a blighted labor market, hopping from job to job as they searched for a foothold in their career, all while carrying record levels of student debt. As the economy bounced them around the workforce, millennials gained a reputation as disloyal job hoppers.Lauren Stiller Rikleen, president at Rikleen Institute for Strategic Leadership and author of "You Raised Us, Now Work With Us: Millennials, Career Success, and Building Strong Workplace Teams," told Insider millennials were mislabeled."This was about a generation that were having jobs rescinded," she said. "They were the first to be fired. They were the first to have to be moved from a full-time to a part-time position, or they had no benefits."Research has found that entering the workforce during a downturn can harm wage growth, with people who do so earning less for up to 15 years compared with people who graduated during times of prosperity. Instead of springboarding millennials into greater responsibility and higher income potential, early roles launched many into lower-wage trajectories and career uncertainty. The Great Recession shaped millennials' experience in the workforce. Justin Paget/Getty Images Their experience was affected "by different economic conditions and realities" from either boomers or Gen Xers, Ernie Tedeschi, a managing director and policy economist for Evercore ISI, previously told Insider. "This has consequences for individual career prospects and affects their sense of dynamism."It all explains a lot about how the generation grew wary of risk, fearful of losing a job and under pressure to catch up financially. That led to the creation of a work-obsessed "hustle culture" and a widespread sense of burnout. It means that millennials haven't wanted their work lives to turn out quite like this. Work isn't an exclusive priority for most of them, the PwC survey found, with 71% of respondents saying it interferes with their personal lives, and a Deloitte study found they value work-life balance above all other work characteristics.In fact, millennials have been speaking up about work-life balance, Rikleen said, echoing what recruiters told The Washington Post in 2015 about seeing more and more job-seekers request flexibility. These requests fell on deaf ears from a combination of millennials' cautious post-recession mindset and what one recruiter called an empathy gap between them and boomer supervisors.The pandemic and remote work gave Gen Z leverageIt would take a pandemic and an even younger crowd to realize what millennials always wanted in the workplace. The class of 2020 graduated into a paralyzed economy marked by a 14.7% unemployment rate. Younger workers were hit hardest during the coronavirus recession, and 2021 grads had the hardest time finding a job last summer, squeezed by cheaper teen labor on one hand and the millennials with experience to cash in, especially the so-called geriatric millennials who emerged with the most power during the labor shortage.But the era of remote work gave Gen Z the upper hand in amplifying demands for workplace autonomy, Rikleen said. She added that their lives were turned upside down during an impressionable time."They had so much taken away from them in terms of access, you can go on and on with what has been lost," she said. "That reframes your thinking ... you start to think about what's important to you and how to express [that]." The pandemic pushed Gen Z to advocate for a permanently flexible work situation. Maskot/Getty Images And so, as the Times' Goldberg wrote, they began questioning pre-pandemic workplace norms like eight-hour shifts or lack of progressive values, much to the chagrin of the millennial managers who are used to doing things their way (just like every generation)."These younger generations are cracking the code and they're like, 'Hey guys, turns out we don't have to do it like these old people tell us we have to do it,'" Colin Guinn, cofounder of robotics company Hangar Technology, told Goldberg. "'We can actually do whatever we want and be just as successful.' And us old people are like, 'What is going on?'"It's part of what Erika Rodriguez called a "slow-up" in a recent opinion piece for the Guardian, as she advocated for an intentional slowdown in productivity with the aim of greater separation from work. This could be taking unofficial breaks or responding to emails only on select weekdays. If that doesn't fly in a workplace, Gen Z has so far had no qualms about quitting their crappy jobs in favor of a better one, leading the way in what LinkedIn CEO Ryan Roslansky has called a "Great Reshuffle."A generational evolutionMillennials paved the way for a change in better flexibility and wellbeing at work, but Gen Z is turning it from a workplace perk to workplace norm. That's how things go with generations - whenever the youngest cohort emerges in the labor force, and in the world, they always seem more progressive than the last."The quest for a workplace that respects boundaries and needs is baked in generationally," Rikleen said. "That will not change. With each new generation, this will get stronger."As Rikleen points out, boomer or Gen X employers also used to express shock about how outspoken millennials were. It only makes sense that as millennials aged into employers themselves, that they too would be taken aback by the boldness of the generation following them. "It's sort of a natural evolution," Rikleen said.To be sure, both millennials and Gen Z are vast generations. The youngest millennials turn 25 this year, closer in age to Gen Z than the oldest of their generation who turns 40, and unlikely to be in a managerial role. And with the oldest Gen Zer turning 24, most of the generation has yet to enter the workforce. This means, Rikleen explains, that we have to think about data on Gen Z workers as emerging data that represents patterns and trends.But examining workplace transitions as millennials age into more powerful career roles and Gen Z continues to enter the workforce is important in understanding how to build an economy of workers that are happy and productive, especially in a post-pandemic world.Millennials may be the largest generation right now, but with Gen Z set to become the most populous generation, they'll one day dominate a workforce that's going to look a lot different - until Generation C comes along and scares them, too. It's just how generations - and economics - work.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 6th, 2021

Daylight-saving time ends on November 7 - here"s why we have it and why some lawmakers want to make it permanent

At 2 a.m. ET on Sunday, Americans will "fall back" by moving their clocks an hour behind in exchange for more daylight in the morning. Sunset over the Arizona desert Shutterstock At 2 a.m. ET on November 7, Americans will "fall back" to end daylight-saving time. Common wisdom about daylight-saving time is that it originated with farming, but it really goes back to World War I. Most of the US, with the exception of Hawaii, Arizona, and many territories, recognizes daylight-saving time. Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories. On November 7 at 2 a.m. ET, most US states will end over eight months of daylight-saving time by "falling back" and moving their clocks an hour behind, gaining an hour of sleep, and trading an earlier sunrise for less sunlight at the end of the day. Thinkers including Benjamin Franklin, the New Zealand scientist George Hudson, and the Englishman William Willett advocated for plans that would give them more sunlight in the day going all the way back to the 18th and 19th centuries. The US and several European countries enacted daylight-saving time during World War I and World War II as an energy-conservation measure and kept it during peacetime.Today, most of the US, with the exception of Hawaii, Arizona, and many US territories, recognizes daylight-saving time. While many northern states appreciate the extra hour of sun, some states that experience unbearable heat in the summer prefer an hour of nighttime instead and stay on standard time all year round. There are other states and lawmakers, however, that want more sun. Several states have taken action to make daylight-saving time permanent, and a bipartisan group of senators is now making a renewed push to make daylight-saving time last all year nationwide. Here's the full history of daylight-saving time in the US. The idea for daylight-saving time is attributed to thinkers including Benjamin Franklin, scientist George Hudson, and a British man named William Willett, who published a pamphlet in 1907 titled "The Waste of Daylight," which argued for an extra 80 minutes of sunlight in the summer. William Willett. Universal History Archive/UIG via Getty Images Source: The History Channel While Britain didn't act on Willett's proposal at the time, Germany implemented daylight-saving time during World War I as a way to conserve electricity by maximizing sunlight. "At close grips with the Hun, we bomb the corkshaffer's, etc." Two United States soldiers run past the remains of two German soldiers toward a bunker. Note that this may well be a staged propaganda image. H. D. Girdwood via Library of Congress Source: The History Channel "They remembered Willett's idea of moving the clock forward and thus having more daylight during working hours," the author and historian David Prerau told National Geographic. "While the British were talking about it year after year, the Germans decided to do it more or less by fiat." Daffodils in Duesseldorf, Germany. AP Photo/Frank Augstein Source: National Geographic The US also implemented national daylight-saving time during World War I under President Woodrow Wilson in 1918 -but Congress later repealed the measure in 1919. President Woodrow Wilson. Hulton Archive/Getty Images Source: The History Channel Multiple studies, however, have since concluded that daylight-saving time has no or negligible benefits when it comes to energy conservation. FILE - In this May 25, 2017, file photo, the Milton R. Young Station lignite coal-fired power plant near Center, N.D., glows as dusk blankets the North Dakota prairie landscape. Associated Press Source: History Channel It's a common misconception that farmers pushed for daylight-saving time in the US to get more time to work outside in the fields. FILE - In this Sept. 3, 2002 file photo, farmer John Hawk looks over his land as his seed onion fields are watered in Holtville, Calif. Associated Press Source: The History Channel Because farmers' schedules revolved around sunlight and not the clock, a change in the amount of sunlight threw their entire workday out of whack. Agricultural groups were behind the effort to repeal daylight-saving time in 1919. Mark Wilson/Getty Images Source: The History Channel After the national repeal of daylight-saving time in 1919, many individual states and cities continued to adjust their clocks twice a year, but at varying days and times, in what Time magazine characterized in 1963 as "a chaos of clocks." Electric Time Company employees Dan LaMoore, right, and James Simonini test the lights in three large clocks being constructed at the company's production facility in Medfield, Mass., AP Photo/Stephan Savoia Source: The History Channel The History Channel reported that at the time, "passengers on a 35-mile bus ride from Steubenville, Ohio, to Moundsville, West Virginia, passed through seven time changes." West Virginia. shutterstock/Andriy Blokhin Source: The History Channel In 1966, Congress passed the Uniform Time Act, which set daylight-saving time to begin and end at the same time nationwide. Since 2005, daylight-saving time has begun on the second Sunday in March and ended on the first Sunday in November. A reminder to change clocks back from day-light savings time in the fall from Brooklyn, New York, in 1964. Underwood Archives/Getty Images) Source: The History Channel  Hawaii, most of Arizona, and a number of US territories do not, however, recognize daylight-saving time - largely because nighttime brings cooler, more pleasant temperatures than the heat during the day. Hawaii. Courtesy of Four Seasons Resort Hualalai Source: National Geographic "In the summer, everybody loves to have an extra hour of daylight in the evening so they can stay out another hour," Prerau told National Geographic. "In Arizona, it's just the opposite. They don’t want more sunlight, they want less.” Sunset over the Arizona desert. Shutterstock Source: National Geographic While states can voluntarily opt-out of recognizing daylight saving time or choose to be on daylight-saving time all-year-round, they must pass an act of legislation and obtain approval from the US Congress. Jeffrey Greenberg/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images Source: NBC Montana Lawmakers in over a dozen states have passed legislation or resolutions in recent years to make daylight-saving time permanent in their states. But those bills haven't been able to go into effect absent congressional action. Shutterstock Source: National Conference of State Legislatures  Some studies have linked the decrease in sleep associated with daylight-saving time to negative health effects, such as increases in heart attacks, car accidents, and workplace injuries. Houston Fire Department medics transport a man to a hospital after he suffered cardiac arrest on August 11, 2020 in Houston, Texas. John Moore/Getty Images Source: Detroit Free Press, Insider In March of 2019, the European Parliament voted to permanently end daylight saving time in the European Union effective in 2021, letting individual countries decide whether to operate on permanent "summer time" or "winter time." A Union Jack flag is lowered at half-mast in honor of the victims of the Manchester attack, outside the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium May 23, 2017. Reuters/Francois Lenoir Source: Insider A bipartisan group of US Senators are on a renewed push to make daylight-saving time permanent all-year-round in states that currently recognize it. People walk along the Reflecting Pool on the National Mall, near the U.S. Capitol and Washington Monument. Photo by Al Drago/Getty Images The Sunshine Protection Act of 2021, introduced by Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, is co-sponsored by a bipartisan group of 13 senators."In a year that feels like it's been in complete darkness, Senator Rubio and I have provided a solution to provide more sunlight by making Daylight Saving Time permanent," GOP Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma, one of the bill's co-sponsors, said. "I don't know a parent of a young child that would oppose getting rid of springing forward or falling back. Congress created Daylight Saving decades ago as a wartime effort, now it is well past time to lock the clock and end this experiment."  —Sheldon Whitehouse (@SenWhitehouse) November 5, 2021 Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 5th, 2021

Futures Melt Up To New Record High Ahead Of Payrolls

Futures Melt Up To New Record High Ahead Of Payrolls US index futures continued their relentless meltup on the last day of the week, before today's jobs report which is expected to bounce strongly from last month's disappointing print (exp. 450K, up from 194K), and could set the pace for the Fed's taper into 2022 if it is too much of an outlier in either direction. At 730am, e-mini S&P futures were up 8.25 or 0.18% to 4,681.5, a new all time high; Nasdaq futures rose 48 points or 0.29% and Dow futures were up 35 or 0.1%. 10Y yields were flat at 1.53% and the dollar index jumped, while Brent traded just above $80 after yesterday's rout. “Investors took comfort from the Federal Reserve’s slow and steady approach when announcing the time-line for its taper program,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in London. “Today’s payrolls report should confirm that the U.S. labor market is still improving.” After one of the busiest earnings days this season, it has been a furious session with Expedia to News jumping in premarket trading on better-than-expected results.  Airbnb jumped 7.7% after the travel website reported record sales and earnings that exceeded analyst estimates. Meanwhile, Peloton crashed 33% after the fitness company cut its annual revenue forecast by as much as $1 billion because of declining demand in the post-pandemic economy.  Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Peloton (PTON US) shares tanked 32% in U.S. premarket trading after analysts said its results and reduced guidance implied weaker demand than expected, and that the home-fitness company’s business model may need a rethink Square (SQ US) shares drop 4.5% in U.S. premarket trading after its 3Q results fell short of the consensus estimate, but its outlook remains strong, analysts say. The weakness in its Cash App and Bitcoin revenue could have been predicted, they added. Airbnb (ABNB US) shares rose 8% in U.S. premarket after the vacation-rental giant reported record sales and earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. RBC and Barclays hiked their price targets, citing improving earnings and supply-demand dynamics in 2022 NRX Pharmaceuticals (NRXP US) and Relief Therapeutics (RLF SW), which are partners on a drug to treat Covid-19, tumbled after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration declined to issue an emergency use authorization for the medication. GoPro (GPRO US) shares soar 17.2% premarket Tuesday after the maker of mountable and wearable cameras reported third-quarter results that exceeded analyst estimates Expedia (EXPE US) shares rally in premarket trading, as the online travel agency reports third-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings that beat expectations. The company’s CEO also gave positive commentary about a recovery in the travel industry Novavax (NVAX US) climbs as much as 6% after the biotech company said it filed with the World Health Organization for emergency use listing for its Covid vaccine Pinterest (PINS US) rises 5% in premarket trading after the company reported stronger-than-expected profit and revenue that met analysts’ estimates Microchip (MCHP US) gains 2.5% in premarket trading after projecting revenue and adjusted EPS that exceeded the average analyst estimates Ontrak (OTRK US) jumped 24% postmarket after the tele-health company boosted its full-year guidance Grid Dynamics (GDYN US) jumped 18% in postmarket trading after the information-technology services company forecasts full-year revenue that beat the average analyst estimate Pfizer (PFE) surged more than 10% after the company announced it would seek approval for a new covid pill after strong trial data. Looking ahead now, we’ll cap off a very busy macro week today with the US jobs report for October As previewed earlier, consensus expects +450k increase in nonfarm payrolls, which in turn would send the unemployment rate down a tenth to a post-pandemic low of 4.7%. The last couple of jobs reports have seen some downside surprises, but if realized, that +450k number would be the strongest jobs growth in 3 months. We’ve had some fairly positive labor market data in advance of the jobs report too, with the ADP’s report of private payrolls exceeding expectations on Wednesday at 571k (vs. 400k expected), and yesterday the weekly initial jobless claims for the week through October 30 fell to a fresh post-pandemic low of 269k (vs. 275k expected). The Fed made it clear this week that labor market evolution after the delta variant will be a key determinant in the future path of monetary policy. In any case, risk euphoria was strong with Europe as well, where stocks scaled another record peak as consumer and tech companies led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 0.2% to an all-time high poised for the longest winning streak since mid-June. FTSE MIB and FTSE 100 outperformed at the margin. Technology stocks outperformed, while energy and travel and leisure stocks declined. Among the biggest movers, Allegro.eu SA soared 7.8% after Poland’s largest e-commerce bought a Czech peer in a $1 billion deal. Euronext NV fell 4.4% after the exchange operator’s third-quarter results undershot expectations. However, most travel stocks dropped as a fourth wave of the pandemic hits the continent, with Germany reporting record infections. European stocks extended October’s recovery to return to their all-time highs, as investors scooped up the region’s stocks thanks to a reassuring earnings season and as central banks signal they are in no hurry to raise interest rates just yet. “We’ve seen a fairly benign reaction to the earnings season, in some respects. Perhaps people were a little bit nervous going into it,” Alastair George, chief investment strategist at Edison Group, said by phone. “The market troughed in the early part of October and has bounced back since then, and if we look at earnings revisions, they’re not as robust as they were earlier on in the Covid recovery cycle, but we’re not seeing downgrades,” George added. Asian equities fell, as a slide in bond yields globally and a decline in Hong Kong-listed tech shares weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.5%, led lower by consumer discretionary and utility shares. Alibaba and Tencent were the biggest drags with analysts accessing earnings outlooks ahead of the companies’ quarterly results announcements. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.6%, while the benchmark Hang Seng Index dropped 1.4%. Traders are now awaiting the U.S. jobs report later Friday for further cues on monetary policy tightening. “Markets will be seeking confirmation on whether the job market recovery warrants a mid to late-2022 lift-off in rates as reflected in the Fed funds futures,” Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG Asia, wrote in a note. The Asian stock benchmark is set for a weekly rise of less than 1% as the earnings season progresses. Supply-chain constraints and inflation worries are being cited as concerns by many of the largest companies in the region, with several seeing their shares tumble as the chip shortage prompts them to slash their annual profit forecasts. India’s stock market was closed for a holiday Friday. Japanese stocks fell as the yen held its strength against the dollar and investors assessed the potential supply response from the U.S. to a gradual hike in production from OPEC+. The Topix index dropped 0.7% to close at 2,041.42 in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 0.6% to 29,611.57. Toyota Motor contributed the most to the Topix’s loss, decreasing 1.4%. Out of 2,181 shares in the index, 540 rose and 1,589 fell, while 52 were unchanged. Japan’s currency was little changed at 113.64 yen per dollar, after gaining 0.2% on Thursday Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.4% to 7,456.90, its highest close since Sept. 16. The benchmark gained 1.8% for the week.  Eight of the 11 subgauges finished Friday trade higher, with miners and healthcare stocks driving the gains.  The Reserve Bank of Australia struck an upbeat note on the economy, while maintaining that faster wages growth and inflation will take some time and the first interest-rate increase is unlikely before 2024. Administration soared after receiving a conditional, non-binding indicative takeover proposal from investment fund Carlyle Asia Partners V. Clinuvel tumbled after it was cut to hold at Jefferies.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 1% to 13,074.61. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reached its strongest level in more than three weeks as the greenback was steady or higher versus all of its Group-of-10 peers. The euro traded near its cycle lows following strong U.S. data and renewed dovish commentary by European Central Bank officials and options now paint a similar outlook. The slowdown in inflation next year may not be as intense and quick as the European Central Bank had anticipated a few months ago, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos says. The pound fell against all its Group-of-10 peers and gilts rallied, sending yields down by as many as 5 basis points. Money markets no longer fully price the Bank of England raising its key rate to 1% in Dec. 2022, pushing bets out to Feb. 2023. Labor market data is an important piece of the jigsaw for the BOE, Governor Andrew Bailey says in an interview with BBC Radio 4. Australia’s 10-year bonds had their first weekly gain in more than two months after the BOE joined the RBA and the Fed in pushing back against aggressive rate-hike bets; the Aussie and Kiwi weakened. The yen rose as traders unwound bearish bets on the currency before the release of key U.S. jobs data and repricing of the outlook for policy tightening. In rates, the 10Y yield was unchanged at 1.53%. Gilts extend Thursday’s post-BO shockE rally, richening ~5bps across the curve in a modest flattening move. Short sterling futures add 2.5-3 ticks in red and green packs as expectations for higher rates are pared back. MPC-dated OIS rates factor in only 11bps of hike by the December meeting and no longer fully price the Bank’s rate at 1% by end-2022. Bunds follow, cash USTs drift ahead of today’s payrolls release. In commodities, crude futures hold a narrow range after OPEC+ rebuffed U.S. demands for accelerated output.with WTI trading just below $80. Spot gold drifts higher, briefly testing $1,800/oz. Base metals are mixed: LME lead and tin rally, zinc drops over 1.5% with canceled warrants hitting the highest since August To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the aforementioned US jobs report, but European data will also include September figures on Euro Area retail sales and German and French industrial production. Central bank speakers will include the ECB’s Vice President de Guindos, as well as the ECB’s Holzmann, Centeno and Panetta, in addition to the BoE’s Ramsden, Pill and Tenreyro. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,674.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 483.89 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.24% Euro little changed at $1.1558 MXAP down 0.4% to 198.36 MXAPJ down 0.3% to 645.66 Nikkei down 0.6% to 29,611.57 Topix down 0.7% to 2,041.42 Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 24,870.51 Shanghai Composite down 1.0% to 3,491.57 Sensex up 0.5% to 60,067.62 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,456.94 Kospi down 0.5% to 2,969.27 Brent Futures up 0.8% to $81.22/bbl Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,798.55 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.35 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Germany reported record Covid-19 infections for a second straight day, as a fourth wave of the pandemic hits Europe and threatens to overwhelm hospitals in some hot spots The increasingly influential expectations gap between bond traders and central bankers faces a fresh test Friday -- U.S. jobs data that could reignite or damp out the inflation concerns policy makers tried to downplay this week A shortage of homes for sale and a buoyant labor market are expected to underpin the U.K. housing market as consumers come under pressure from soaring inflation and higher interest rates, according to Halifax A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded cautiously following a somewhat mixed handover from the US where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extended on fresh record highs with outperformance in rate-sensitive stocks alongside the rally in global bonds. However, the DJIA lagged but with only marginal losses as attention shifted to the upcoming NFP jobs data, while Chinese developer default concerns provided headwinds in Asia after reports Kaisa Group missed a payment on its wealth management product. ASX 200 (+0.4%) was underpinned by strength in the mining-related sectors as gold producers benefitted from the recent advances in the precious metal which approached just shy of the USD 1800/oz level and with sentiment also helped by the continued dovish tone by the RBA in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, although advances were capped amid losses in tech and with energy names suffering due to lower oil prices. Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) weakness was a function of recent adverse currency flows but with downside stemmed as participants digest a slew of earnings releases and reports the government is considering cash handouts of JPY 100k to under-18s. Hang Seng (-1.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.0%) were both subdued with Hong Kong pressured by losses in the blue chip financial, tech and energy stocks and with property names also constrained by the missed Kaisa Group payment which the Shenzhen-based developer plans to repay in instalments. It was also reported that China told certain smaller banks to limit wealth products, although the losses in the mainland were cushioned after the PBoC upped its liquidity effort despite still resulting in a net daily drain. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher following on from the gains in global counterparts which were spurred by the surprise BoE hold on rates and with the weakness in Japanese stocks also helping keep bond prices afloat, with price action also unfazed by the lack of purchases from the BoJ which were instead seeking to buy corporate bonds with 1yr-3yr maturities for Nov. 10th. Top Asian News Japan Eases Many Covid-Era Border Restrictions as Cases Slump Developer in China Misses Payment on Loan Backed by Fantasia World’s Largest Pension Fund GPIF Posts $17 Billion Gain HSBC Requests All of Its Hong Kong Staff to Get Vaccinated European equities broadly trade on a marginally firmer footing (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%; Stoxx 600 +0.2%) with the Stoxx 600 set to close the week out with gains of around 1.6%. Macro commentary for the session has been relatively light thus far in the wake of yesterday’s BoE surprise. The handover from the APAC session was predominantly a negative one with Hang Seng (-1.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1%) both subdued as stocks in Hong Kong were pressured by losses in the blue-chip financial, tech and energy stocks and with property names also constrained by the missed Kaisa Group payment which the Shenzhen-based developer plans to repay in instalments. Stateside, futures have been inching higher ahead of the latest US jobs report with consensus looking for a 450k addition in nonfarm payrolls. Events in Washington are also worth keeping an eye on after CNN’s Raju reported yesterday that House Dems see Friday as the day they can finish the rule, USD 1.75tln Build Back Better bill and infrastructure bill. The Infrastructure bill would then go to Biden’s desk and the USD 1.75tln bill would go to the Senate for further negotiation with Manchin and other Senate Dems. Back to Europe, sectors are relatively mixed with Telecom names outperforming amid gains in BT (+1.8%) who sit at the top of the FTSE 100 as speculation continues to rumble on that billionaire investor Patrick Drahi could make a move for the Co. Deutsche Telekom is also providing support for the sector after confirming that IFM is to buy 50% in Co's Glasfaserplys GmbH for EUR 900mln. To the downside, Travel & Leisure names lag as opening gains for IAG (-2.1%) proved to be fleeting with the Co. warning of a potential EUR 3bln FY loss alongside Q3 earnings. Elsewhere, Oil & Gas names are trading lower alongside losses in the crude complex, with Basic Resources also near the foot of the leaderboard. Top European News Adler Pressure Builds With Idle Cranes and Angry Berlin Buyers Axa Jumps to More Than 3-Year High After Share Buyback Plan Europe Gas Prices Rebound as Traders Eye Russia’s Next Move ECB’s Guindos Says Inflation Will Slow in 2022 ‘Without a Doubt’ In FX, the Dollar index has gained some traction and has broken out of the 94.273-417 APAC range in the run-up to the US labour market report – with the headline NFP print forecast at 450k (full preview available in the Newsquawk Research Suite), although anything short of an extreme jobs reports this month will likely not sway the Fed's dials following the taper announcement earlier this week - which will commence later this month. On the fiscal front, the US House is to meet at 12:00GMT/08:00EDT to debate the procedural rule to put the social spending bill on the floor. Democrats hope to debate and vote on the social spending and infrastructure bills today, according to Fox. From a technical perspective, DXY eyes yesterday 94.475 high ahead of the YTD peak at 94.563. GBP, EUR - Sterling is the marked laggard thus far in what is seemingly a hangover on the day after the BoE coupled with Brexit risk, as the UK and EU's Brexit negotiators are set to meet in a bid to temper down cross-channel frictions. Governor Bailey made an appearance on UK radio this morning but failed to provide much in the way of additional colour regarding yesterday's policy decision – with markets currently assigning a 2/3 chance of a 15bps hike in December. On that note, BoE's new Chief Economist Pill, alongside MPC members Tenreyro and Ramsden, are all slated to speak throughout the session. Over to Brexit developments, RTE's Connelly recently reported that there is a "growing expectation" that the UK will trigger Article 16 - suggesting that "the view is that the EU's response could be much swifter and more 'radical' than expected.", although a special meeting of the bloc's leaders will likely be needed before any move. From a technical standpoint, EUR/GBP breached overnight resistance at 0.8565 before briefly topping the 200 DMA at 0.8584. In turn, GBP/USD declined from its 1.3508 high to a base sub-1.3450, with some traders suggesting the pair ran into sellers just ahead of a Fib level at 1.3511. EUR is supported by the EUR/GBP cross, with EUR/USD relatively flat on the day and still above yesterday's 1.1527 low. EUR/USD also looks ahead to some OpEx – with EUR 1.4bln between 1.5555-60 alongside some EUR 725mln at strike 1.1575. AUD, NZD, CAD - The high-beta non-US dollars all post modest intraday losses. The Aussie sits at the bottom of this bunch after the RBA's SoMP overnight reiterated a patient approach, with headwinds also felt by a decline in iron ore prices overnight whilst copper trades lacklustre. NZD is softer in sympathy whilst the Loonie bears the brunt of lower post-OPEC crude prices. AUD/USD has declined from a 0.7408 peak and dips under its 200 DMA (0.7379) ahead of the 50 DMA (0.7364). NZD/USD meanwhile loses ground under the 0.7100 mark – which also coincides with its 21 and 200 DMAs. USD/CAD eyes its 200 DMA at 1.2479 from a 1.2450 base in the run-up to the Canadian jobs report – with the pair also cognizant of USD 1.3bln in OpEx between 1.2500-05. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures consolidate following yesterday's post-OPEC+ declines and heading into today's main event – the US labour market report. To recap the OPEC+ confab, ministers opted to continue the current plan to hike monthly output by 400k BPD (despite calls from the US to up output by 600-800k BPD), whilst reports also suggested that there will be no compensation for the underproduction seen from some nations. Traders are now on the lookout for a US response, with Washington yesterday reiterating the use of tools against oil prices. As a reminder, US Energy Secretary Granholm in an FT interview in October raised the prospect of an SPR release, whilst also refusing to rule out a ban on oil crude oil exports, suggesting “it is also a tool”. From the demand side, China’s economic slowdown has prompted JPM to downgrade the nation’s GDP growth forecast by 1ppt to 4.0%, citing the lingering impact of the power crunch and resurgence in COVID. It’s also worth noting that next week will see the Chinese inflation metrics, with oil prices expected to contribute to another Y/Y rise in PPI. WTI Dec trades just under USD 80/bbl (vs 78.96/bbl low) whilst Brent Jan trades on either side of USD 81/bbl (vs low 80.26/bbl). Turning to metals, spot gold and silver are uninteresting heading into the US jobs report whilst LME copper remains under USD 9,500/t. Overnight, Dalian iron ore futures fell once again to log a fourth consecutive week of losses amid China’s crackdown on the raw material. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Oct. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 450,000, prior 194,000 Change in Private Payrolls, est. 420,000, prior 317,000 Unemployment Rate, est. 4.7%, prior 4.8% Underemployment Rate, prior 8.5% Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 61.7%, prior 61.6% Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.9%, prior 4.6% Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6% Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.8, prior 34.8 3pm: Sept. Consumer Credit, est. $16b, prior $14.4b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Markets had another buoyant session yesterday as they received a dovish surprise from the Bank of England, just as they were digesting the Fed’s tapering decision from the previous evening. In response, markets shifted gear and pushed back pricing of future rate hikes, which in turn led to a sharp rally across the curve in sovereign bond markets in every major economy. And with investors lowering the odds of a near-term removal in monetary policy support, that helped equities take another leg higher, with the S&P 500 (+0.42%) advancing for the 15th time in the last 17 sessions to reach a fresh all-time high. We’ll start with the BoE as they generated the main headlines, and contrary to building expectations that a potential rate hike could be imminent, the MPC in fact voted by 7-2 to keep Bank Rate on hold at 0.1%, with only the most hawkish members favouring a 15bps increase. This came in spite of the fact that the BoE upgraded their inflation forecasts yet again, now seeing CPI peaking “at around 5% in April 2022”. The meeting summary did say that if the data was in line with their projections it would “be necessary over coming months to increase Bank Rate”, but overall it was a pretty dovish decision, with the MPC also voting by 6-3 to continue with its existing QE program. In their forecasts that were conditioned on the market-implied path for Bank Rate, they said “a margin of spare capacity is expected to emerge”, and that CPI would be beneath target at the end of the forecast period, so again pushing back against market pricing that had been looking for multiple hikes in 2022. In response, our UK economists have shifted their call for lift-off of 15bps to December, before seeing further 25bps hikes in May 2022 and February 2023. For more details, see their reaction note (link here). Markets reacted strongly to the decision as investors were surprised by the extent of the BoE’s dovishness. Gilts rallied sharply and outperformed sovereign bonds elsewhere, with 5yr yields (-20.0bps) seeing their biggest move lower in over 5 years, back in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum. The 2yr yield was also down a massive -21.1 bps, marking its own biggest move lower since the initial market panic over Covid-19 back in March 2020. And sterling (-1.37%) had its worst performance against the dollar so far this year, which therefore left it as the worst performer among the G10 currencies too. The BoE meeting triggered a rally of global sovereign bonds, though whilst the gilt curve bull steepened, most other curves wound up flatter on the day. In the US, yields on 10yr Treasuries fell -7.7 bps to 1.53%, marking their biggest move lower since August, whilst the 2yr Treasury yield retreated -4.4bps. Real yields continue to drive the treasury curve, with the 10yr real yield down -8.6 bps to move back beneath -1% again. Elsewhere in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-5.6bps), OATs (-6.4bps) and BTPs (-11.4bps) all declined as well, with lower real yields the driver once again. This dramatic shift to price in greater monetary support for longer was good news for equities yesterday, with the major indices pressing on to fresh all-time highs. By the close of trade, the S&P 500 (+0.42%) had hit a new record, though in reality it was a fairly narrow-based advance, with fewer than half of the companies in the index actually moving higher on the day, whilst financials (-1.34%) underperformed against the backdrop of lower yields and a flatter curve. Interest-sensitive tech stocks did much better, with the NASDAQ (+0.81%) also at a record high as it achieved a 9th consecutive daily advance, its longest winning streak since 2019, whilst the FANG+ index of megacap tech stocks advanced +1.29% to reach a fresh high of its own. Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.41%) hit a record high too, even if the index was similarly hampered by financials (-0.86%), and records were also attained by Germany’s DAX (+0.44%) and France’s CAC 40 (+0.53%). That rally in equities hasn’t carried over into Asia this morning where indices including the Nikkei (-0.72%), the KOSPI (-0.65%), the Hang Seng (-0.96%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.25%) are all trading lower. However, the surge in sovereign bonds has been echoed elsewhere, with yields on Australian 10yr debt down -4.0bps this morning, and bonds also advanced in China after the PBOC increased their short-term cash injections yet again. Speaking of Chinese debt, Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd, a developer, and its units listed in Hong Kong were suspended from trading after the company missed payments on wealth products and raised liquidity concerns. Meanwhile, the latest Covid-19 outbreak in China continued to spread, with a further 90 new cases reported on Friday, 22 of which were asymptomatic. Otherwise, S&P 500 futures (+0.01%) are almost unchanged this morning and yields on 10y Treasuries have moved up +1.2bps. Looking ahead now, we’ll cap off a very busy macro week today with the US jobs report for October, which is out at 12:30 London time. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for a +400k increase in nonfarm payrolls, which in turn would send the unemployment rate down a tenth to a post-pandemic low of 4.7%. The last couple of jobs reports have seen some downside surprises, but if realised, that +400k number would be the strongest jobs growth in 3 months. We’ve had some fairly positive labour market data in advance of the jobs report too, with the ADP’s report of private payrolls exceeding expectations on Wednesday at 571k (vs. 400k expected), and yesterday the weekly initial jobless claims for the week through October 30 fell to a fresh post-pandemic low of 269k (vs. 275k expected). The Fed made it clear this week that labour market evolution after the delta variant will be a key determinant in the future path of monetary policy. Speaking of the Fed, it was reported by Dow Jones that Fed Chair Powell was seen visiting the White House yesterday. It comes with just 3 months left until the end of Powell’s current 4-year term, and follows President Biden saying on Tuesday that an announcement on the Fed position would come “fairly quickly”. For reference, the decision on who would be nominated as Fed Chair had already been announced at this point 4, 8 and 12 years ago. As well as the BoE, the other important meeting was that from the OPEC+ group, who rejected the demands from President Biden and others for a larger increase in oil production. They decided to increase output by +400k b/d in December, though afterwards oil actually gave up its surge earlier in the day to end the session lower, with WTI moving all the way from an intraday peak where it was up +3.17% to close down by -2.54%. A spokesperson for the US National Security Council said that the US would consider a range of tools to deal with oil prices, and Energy Secretary Granholm said last month that releasing crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve was being considered. Lastly on the data front, the Euro Area composite PMI for October was revised down a tenth from the flash reading to 54.2, whilst the services PMI was also revised down a tenth to 54.6. Separately, the Euro Area PPI reading for September came in at +16.0% year-on-year (vs. +15.4% expected). Lastly, the preliminary Q3 reading of nonfarm productivity showed an annualised decline of -5.0% (vs. -3.1% expected), which was its largest quarterly decline since 1981. To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the aforementioned US jobs report, but European data will also include September figures on Euro Area retail sales and German and French industrial production. Central bank speakers will include the ECB’s Vice President de Guindos, as well as the ECB’s Holzmann, Centeno and Panetta, in addition to the BoE’s Ramsden, Pill and Tenreyro. Tyler Durden Fri, 11/05/2021 - 08:12.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytNov 5th, 2021

Credit Suisse Unveils Promised Reorg, Cuts Prime Brokerage In Pivot To "Catering To World"s Rich"

Credit Suisse Unveils Promised Reorg, Cuts Prime Brokerage In Pivot To 'Catering To World's Rich' A couple of quarters have passed since Archegos, the family office of former "Tiger Cub" Bill Hwang, got hit with the margin call of a lifetime (mostly thanks to ViacomCBS announcing a  sale of a $3BN chunk of preferred stock) and collapsed spectacularly, forcing half a dozen megabanks to try and sort out an orderly exit from the fund's highly-leveraged trades (to which they had unwittingly become principals) before Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley kicked down the door and liquidated Archegos's positions in a series of massive block trades that fascinated Wall Street. News of the blowup briefly turned the broader market red (not an easy feat in the era of Fed-induced easy money), sparking chatter about contagion, but it fell particularly hard on the shares of Credit Suisse and Nomura, whose prime brokerage businesses were the most exposed to Archegos's positions. Both banks reported losses in the billions of dollars - with Credit Suisse reporting more than $5 billion in losses attributed to Archegos during the first quarter. In time, it was revealed the bank had earned only $17MM in revenue from its dealings with Archegos, which its PB desk had sought to placate in order to win more business. The collapse of the family office prompted Democratic lawmakers like Elizabeth Warren to demand more transparency surrounding reporting of family office positions, since Archegos had managed to keep the fact that it effectively controlled more than 5% of ViacomCBS's shares via its swap positions with various prime brokers a secret (funds are legally required in the US to report positions above that threshold). Warren has continued to use the Archegos collapse as fuel for her criticisms of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whom she demanded resign back in September. Credit Suisse swiftly fired a handful of senior (and not-so-senior) employees, including its chief risk manager and compliance officer, while promising shareholders it would reorganize its business, hinting that its prime brokerage and other risky businesses tied to hedge funds would be dramatically scaled back. Well, the time has finally come for CS to deliver on this promise. Switzerland's second-largest investment bank by assets released its Q3 earnings results early Thursday, alongside a plan to reorganize its sprawling business, exit most hedge-fund-financing related businesses. As far as the results go, JPMorgan analyst Kian Abouhossein described them as "strong", although others warned that shareholders should expect "further writedowns" as the restructuring plan progresses and more regulatory penalties are assessed (note: CS has recently been hit with penalties by American and British regulators that had nothing to do with Archegos). CS also warned of the potential for the bank to take a net loss during the final three months of the year. As for Q3, the bank reported lower net income of CHF434M vs. CHF546M YoY, a 21% drop. As for the restructuring, the bank is using a tried-and-true playbook that has (so far, at least) worked for another struggling European banking giant: Deutsche Bank. According to WSJ, the bank plans to make "catering to the world's rich" its new central mission by consolidating its global operations in private banking and wealth management under one roof, while it plans to exit its prime brokerage and other businesses that help hedge funds finance trades. But otherwise, its investment bank will remain mostly intact. What's more, CS plans to expand its wealth management business with new hires, estimating that it will spend roughly $440MM on the restructuring effort. As a result of the reorg, the bank says it expects to take a 1.6 billion Swiss franc ($1.75BN) goodwill writedown that will likely be the cause of the expected Q4 loss. More specific details about the restructuring effort - along with changes to the bank's senior management - will be rolled out in January, according to Chairman António Horta-Osório, who affirmed that CEO Thomas Gottstein would remain in the CEO's seat to oversee the restructuring. Shares of the Swiss bank gyrated in the wake of the earnings report and announcement as investors digested the announcement with a fair bit of skepticism. A Swiss bank catering to the world's richest? Doesn't UBS already do that? Tyler Durden Fri, 11/05/2021 - 02:45.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 5th, 2021

All Of The Talking Heads Are Wrong About Why The Democrats Lost Virginia

All Of The Talking Heads Are Wrong About Why The Democrats Lost Virginia Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com, The corporate media seemed absolutely shocked by what happened on Tuesday night.  But I was not shocked one bit.  In fact, anyone with any common sense at all should have seen it coming.  Sadly, none of the talking heads on television that I saw were willing to admit why the Democrats really lost Virginia.  Some of the analysts said things that were true, but none of them addressed the main issue.  For example, CNN’s Van Jones admitted that Democrats “are coming across as annoying and offensive”, and that was certainly a truthful statement.  But that isn’t why Democrats lost.  Ultimately, the real reason why they lost in a state where they usually win is incredibly simple. Voters are moved by things that affect them personally more than anything else.  “It’s the economy, stupid” was a slogan that was invented by Clinton campaign strategist James Carville all the way back in 1992.  If people believe that voting for a particular political party is going to improve their ability to make a living, that political party is going to get a lot of votes.  Alternatively, if people believe that voting for a particular political party is going to hurt their ability to make a living, that political party is going to lose a lot of votes. Joe Biden made a catastrophic political error when he went after people’s jobs.  Countless Americans have already lost jobs due to various mandates, and approximately 80 million American workers will be covered by the big OSHA mandate that is about to go into effect. Perhaps Biden and his minions thought that they would just be hurting conservatives with these mandates, but that isn’t true at all.  Vast numbers of independents and Democrats are also refusing to comply with the mandates, and many of them are extremely angry. Let me give you an example.  In Kansas, the head of a local union district is very upset that close to half of the workers at his company could potentially lose their jobs… In Wichita, Kansas, nearly half of the roughly 10,000 employees at aircraft companies Textron Inc and Spirit AeroSystems remain unvaccinated against COVID-19, risking their jobs in defiance of a federal mandate, according to a union official. “We’re going to lose a lot of employees over this,” said Cornell Adams, head of the local Machinists union district. Many workers did not object to the vaccines as such, he said, but were staunchly opposed to what they see as government meddling in personal health decisions. Just reading those two paragraphs, it would be easy to come to the conclusion that Adams is probably a Republican. But he’s not. He is actually a Democrat, and he says that the Democrats will “never get another vote from me”… A life-long Democrat, Adams said he would no longer vote for the party. “They’ll never get another vote from me and I’m telling the workers here the same thing.” Did Biden and his minions actually think that countless independents and Democrats would forgive them for ruining their careers? If they would have just left people alone, they would still be in control in Virginia, but instead election night was a “clean sweep” for Republicans. And unless the Biden administration reverses course, the 2022 midterms will be a national bloodbath for the Democratic Party. When asked about the slaughter in Virginia, Biden mentioned a lot of factors, but he didn’t bring up the mandates at all… “People are upset and uncertain about a lot of things,” Biden said, “from COVID, to school, to jobs, to a whole range of things – and the cost of a gallon of gasoline. And so, if I’m able to pass and sign into law my ‘Build Back Better’ initiative, I’m in a position where you’re going to see a lot of those things ameliorated quickly and swiftly. So that has to be done.” Asked what Democrats need to do to respond to Republican attacks over critical race theory and other cultural issues, Biden said, “We should produce for the American people.” Some of the points he made are valid. Without a doubt, Americans are annoyed that the price of gasoline has become so painful… Gas prices have surged to a seven-year high of $3.40 a gallon nationally and are flirting with $4 in Nevada, Washington State and Oregon. Bank of America is now predicting that Brent crude oil, which drives gas prices, will zoom to $120 a barrel by June 2022. That’s 45% higher than current levels. Needless to say, the new global energy crisis which has suddenly erupted means that the price of gasoline is only going to go higher. And it is also true that Americans are frustrated with the worst supply chain crisis in our history.  The vast piles of cargo that are just sitting around in southern California have proven to be very tempting targets for thieves… “The more that the supply chain in general is backed up, the more cargo you’re going to have sitting. And that creates a bigger opportunity for thefts,” said Scott Cornell, a crime and theft specialist at insurance company Travelers, according to CBS MoneyWatch. Thieves made off with more than $5 million worth of goods as a result of so-called supply-chain theft in California during the third quarter of 2021, a surge of about 42 percent from a year ago, according to cargo theft recovery and prevention network CargoNet. The debacle in Afghanistan, the crisis on the southern border, and the rate at which the national debt is exploding are also factors that have weighed on Biden’s approval ratings. But Biden and his fellow Democrats could have survived all of those things if they had just left people’s jobs alone. In recent weeks, we have seen marches, demonstrations and protests all over the nation because of the mandates. Sadly, the talking heads on television just can’t admit that the mandates are backfiring on an absolutely massive scale. In the months ahead, countless more Americans will be forced out of their jobs thanks to the mandates, and this will set the stage for so many of the things that I have been warning about. If the Democrats want to avoid a complete wipeout during the 2022 midterm elections, they should literally beg Biden to end the mandates immediately. But they aren’t going to do that. They are literally committing political suicide, and they could potentially be creating fertile ground for a new third party to emerge by 2024. *  *  * It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon. Tyler Durden Thu, 11/04/2021 - 18:45.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 4th, 2021

From a "slow-up" to the "Great Reshuffle," Gen Z is demanding a better workplace. And it"s working.

Gen Z's entry into the workforce has brought a whole new set of workplace norms. And if Gen Zers don't like a job, they're not afraid to leave it. Gen Z is ready to take on the workplace. ViewApart / Getty Images Gen Z has entered the labor force, reshaping norms and expectations along the way. Through a "slow-up" they're slowing down productivity and demanding better work-life balance. They're also powering a "Great Reshuffle," refusing to settle for jobs they don't like and job-hopping until they're happy. "I'm so tired that I might/Quit my job, start a new life."So says Gen Z crooner and pop star extraordinaire Olivia Rodrigo in her hit "Brutal." The song, presciently released in May, foreshadowed the millions of Americans who quit their jobs in record numbers for months on end.Rodrigo's demographic - and core audience - has been at the forefront of that trend: Many Gen Zers are ready to work, but it has to be on their terms.As such, they're asserting new norms in the workplace, and eschewing the ones implemented by millennials before them. In a New York Times article that went viral last week, researcher Emma Goldberg explored how millennials are "afraid" of Gen Z workers who are eliciting a new, bold confidence in workplace demands for a better work-life-balance.Young 20-somethings are delegating to their boss, asking for mental health days, working less once they've accomplished their tasks for the day, and setting their own hours, Goldberg wrote. It's a sharp contrast from the overworked, structured days that work-obsessed millennials are accustomed to.It's part of what Erika Rodriguez called a "slow-up" in a recent opinion piece for the Guardian, referring to a permanent shift in slowing down productivity with the aim of having more separation from work. This could be taking unofficial breaks or responding to emails only on select weekdays, and it sounds a lot like those Gen Zers who scare their millennial bosses so much.Gen Z has been through a lot at a young ageBecause younger generations aren't typically tied down, they have always the flexibility to quit their crappy jobs if their needs aren't met, but Gen Z is taking this to an extreme after the pandemic.In August, a study by Personal Capital and The Harris Poll found that two-thirds of Americans surveyed were keen to switch jobs. A whopping 91% of Gen Zers felt that way, more than any other generation.This likely has a lot to do with the events of the last year-and-a-half. Experiencing an unprecedented moment like a pandemic, where you come into contact with death and illness, makes you ask existential questions, according to organizational psychologist Anthony Klotz, who coined the term "Great Resignation." He previously told Insider that these moments can lead to life pivots."Especially in the United States, who we are as an employee and as a worker is very central to who we are as people," Klotz said. The pandemic necessitating a removal from the office let people try out "other elements of life."For Gen Z - many of whom have now graduated into a pandemic-world - those "other elements of life" have been their status quo in the workforce. They jumped from more traditional paths to a world thrown into virtual schooling, a crumbling economy, and an unsure future.LinkedIn CEO Ryan Roslansky said in a recent interview with Time that younger workers are leading the way in a "Great Reshuffle," rather than the so-called Great Resignation. He said his team tracked the percentage of LinkedIn members who changed the jobs listed in their profile and found that job transitions have increased by 54% year-over-year. Gen Z's job transitions have increased by 80% during that time frame, he said."You have employees globally who are rethinking, not just how they work, but why they work and what they most want to do with their careers and lives," he said. "And while this reshuffle of talent will most likely play out for another year or two, I believe it will ultimately settle back down."There are merits to job-hopping for Gen Z in that it motivates them to look for more opportunities and teaches about what they want in a job, Hannes Schwandt, the assistant professor at Northwestern University's School of Education and Social Policy and author of the Stanford research, previously told Insider. "In the end, a more flexible work-life gives you a broader horizon," he said.Gen Z also isn't shy about spreading the news that they quit, lauding departures from toxic roles in the same way that a new job used to be celebrated. For HuffPost, Monica Torres documented the trend of TikTok quitters: The people who are posting themselves quitting."If more people did it, more corporations would pay attention to everything that goes on behind closed doors that they don't normally pay attention to," Shana Blackwell, a then-19-year-old who posted a video of her quitting her job at Walmart, told HuffPost. Even in their departures, Gen Z is reshaping the workplace.It seems, then, that Gen Z, in its determination to slow up and reshuffle, has the upper hand. And they know it.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 4th, 2021

Futures Hit Fresh All-Time Highs, Treasuries Rise On Post-Fed Euphoria

Futures Hit Fresh All-Time Highs, Treasuries Rise On Post-Fed Euphoria US equity futures plowed on to record-er highs overnight, propped up by a slew of stellar earnings reports and as investors shrugged off the Federal Reserve's first steps to begin paring its pandemic-era support as Powell reiterated that the central bank can be patient on raising interest rates (even if rate hikes odds pricing in lliftoff in July were virtually unchanged after Powell's announcement). The Fed Chair announced Wednesday that the central bank will start reducing bond purchases, adding that officials won’t flinch from action if warranted by inflation. The U.S. dollar and Treasuries advanced. “There was no dramatic Hulk-like metamorphosis from the Fed last night as they kept close to expectation," DB's Jim Reid said in a note. At 730 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 7 points, or 0.02%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 6.75 points, or 0.15%, having earlier tagged a record high 4,662.5, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 61.25 points, or 0.39%. The U.S. dollar and Treasuries advanced. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched record all-time closes for their fifth straight sessions on Wednesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a record close for the fourth session in a row. A cheery third quarter earnings season coupled with upbeat commentary about future growth from corporate America has helped Wall Street largely dismiss concerns around rising prices, supply chain snags and a mixed macro-economic picture. A widely expected move by the Fed on announcing its plan to start tapering its monthly bond purchases beginning this month, while sticking to the belief about the "transitory" nature of inflation and waiting for more job growth - before raising interest rates, also helped sentiment. Fed policy makers announced a stimulus-tapering plan as expected, but expressed no hurry to raise benchmark rates even though inflation may run hot for months. While that supported risk-taking in stock markets, a second-day reality check appeared to have emerged in the bond and currency markets. A tug-of-war looked set to continue between dovish central banks and markets pricing in quicker-than-expected rate hikes. Data due at 08:30 a.m. ET is expected to show the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to a fresh 19-month low last week; It will be followed by a more comprehensive nonfarm payrolls report on Friday: "The risks are now skewed towards the (payrolls data) finally aligning with signals elsewhere in the U.S. economy, after a few months of disappointments," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, at OANDA. "A number north of 500K could cause equity markets to reconsider ignoring the implications of the Fed taper. Similarly, a low print will keep the lower-for-longer monetary party in equities going well into the night." Elsewhere, U.S. Representative Rick Larsen said on Wednesday his fellow House Democrats could complete votes on President Joe Biden's social spending and infrastructure bills as early as midday on Friday In premarket trading, shares of Qualcomm jumped 8.1% after the chipmaker forecast better-than-expected profit and revenue for its current quarter on soaring demand for chips used in phones, cars and other internet-connected devices. Tesla added 1.9% and was set for a record open, while mega-cap tech titans GAMMA (f/k/a FAAMG) edged higher. Oil firms including Exxon and Chevron rose 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively, tracking crude prices. Biotech darling Moderna imploded as much as 11% after it missed expectations and guided sharply lower. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Qualcomm (QCOM US) gains 8% premarket as results at the chip giant showed a robust performance against a backdrop of supply constraints, while strength in Android handsets is underpinning growth. Booking (BKNG US) gained 3.7% in post-market trading Wednesday after the company reported gross bookings that beat analysts’ forecasts, as an increase in Covid-19 vaccination rates helped spur a rebound. Roku (ROKU US) falls 7% in premarket after third-quarter results that missed expectations on key metrics for the maker of streaming equipment. Upland Software (UPLD US) slumps 22% in premarket after results, with Jefferies downgrading the stock as it’s the third quarter in a row the firm has not delivered a beat on the top line. Skilz (SKLZ US) drops as much as 13% in premarket after the mobile games platform operator reported a net loss for the third quarter. TDH (DOGZ US) surges as much as 173% in U.S. premarket trading after the pet food firm and meme-trader favorite announced a placement. Magnite (MGNI US) falls 10% in premarket after the advertising solutions firm reported adjusted revenue for the third quarter that lagged behind the average analyst estimate. Qorvo (QRVO US) falls 7% in premarket trading after a sales forecast for the communications systems-maker that fell short of the average analyst estimate. Fastly (FSLY US) jumped 11% in premarket after the infrastructure software maker reported quarterly revenue that surpassed the average analyst estimate after misses in the past two quarters. QuinStreet (QNST US) climbs 21% premarket as the online marketing company raises its full year outlook. European stocks popped higher on the open, then drifted off best levels. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose as much as 0.7% with real estate, oil & gas and healthcare the strongest sectors. Alstria Office REIT AG soared as much as 20% after Brookfield Asset Management Inc. made a bid to take it private. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, headed for their first gain in three days, after the Federal Reserve moved to taper stimulus while saying it will be patient on raising interest rates.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.7%, driven by gains in technology shares including Tencent, Alibaba and Keyence. Japan and China led gains around the region, with stocks also climbing in Indonesia, Thailand and Hong Kong. The Fed indicated it was alert to inflation risks but still sees them as transitory due to pandemic-related supply and demand imbalances. The S&P 500 climbed to a fresh record high after the Fed comments, pushing its gain for 2021 to 24%, while the Asian benchmark is little changed on the year. “The Fed seems to create market expectations that the decoupling of asset purchases reduction and rate hikes remains intact,” said Banny Lam, head of research at CEB International Investment Corp. “Widening negative real interest rates also provide continued support to Asian equities.” Markets in Singapore, India and Malaysia are closed for holidays In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.5% to close at 7,428.00, boosted by banks, real estate and technology shares. Eight of the 11 industry groups closed higher. Nib rose after the insurance provider reported premium revenue A$669.5 million, up 8.5% year on year. Domino’s Pizza plunged after the pizza chain operator outlined some inflationary risks for 2022 and flagged weaker sales in Japan. Australia’s bright trade picture was underpinned by strong commodities exports. September trade data revealed the surplus narrowing to A$12.2 billion, after an estimated A$12.4 billion. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.4% to 12,943.94 In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index recovered Wednesday’s drop and advanced 0.3% versus all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen amid speculation that a buoyant U.S. economy will support the currency. The Bloomberg Dollar index erased its losses this week, staying within a bullish technical range it has traded in since June. The Treasury curve bull-flattened with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields falling 3bps to 1.57%. “Dollar-yen looks to be finding some support” as it seems reasonable to expect Treasury yields to trend higher, said Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac. The Fed “may not be moving any more swiftly than expected to the exit from emergency levels of policy accommodation, but it is still exiting,” Ryan Wang, a U.S. economist at HSBC Holdings Plc, wrote in a note. “This should be enough to support the dollar against a number of currencies where central-bank guidance is more overtly dovish. The continued moderation in global activity is also likely to support the USD.” The euro fell to its weakest level this week and was the worst performer among G-10 currencies; European bond yields fell, led by the short end. The pound fell against a stronger dollar and gained against the euro as investors weighed up the Bank of England’s upcoming monetary policy announcement. The pound’s volatility skew versus the dollar has shifted modestly higher this week ahead of the Bank of England policy decision, yet remains deeply in favor of downside exposure. Norway’s krone extended losses against both the dollar and the euro, even as Norges Bank left its key rate unchanged at 0.25% as expected while reitirating that the policy rate will most likely be raised in December. In rates, curves flattened as 5-, 10- and 30-year bond yields fell at least two basis points each on Thursday, while the two-year rate was little changed. Treasuries were higher with the curve flatter, erasing a portion of Wednesday’s post-FOMC bear-steepening losses. The 10-year yield was richer by ~3bp at 1.57%, outperforming bunds by ~2bp, gilts by ~1bp; Bank of England rate decision priced into overnight swaps is a hike, while analysts favor no change. Treasuries outperformed European bond markets, with stock futures holding Wednesday’s record highs. Bank of England rate decision at 8am ET may deliver first increase since the pandemic. U.S. curves were flatter, unwinding some of Wednesday’s steepening, with 2s10s tighter by ~2bp. In commodities, crude futures rally, recouping over half of Wednesday’s losses. WTI rises 0.9% to regain a $81-handle, Brent adds over 1% before stalling near $83 ahead of OPEC+ gathering. Spot gold holds Asia’s narrow range near $1,775/oz. Base metals are mixed: LME copper and nickel are the best performers; tin and zinc are in the red. Looking at the day ahead now, and the highlight will be the aforementioned BoE meeting, while there’ll also be remarks from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s de Cos, Elderson and Schnabel, and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe. On the data side, releases include German factory orders for September, the Euro Area October services and composite PMIs and September PPI reading, whilst from the US there’s the September trade balance and the weekly initial jobless claims. Lastly, the OPEC+ group will be meeting to discuss output, and earnings releases today include Moderna, Square, Airbnb, Uber, Duke Energy and Regeneron. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,659.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 483.53 MXAP up 0.6% to 199.02 MXAPJ up 0.4% to 647.67 Nikkei up 0.9% to 29,794.37 Topix up 1.2% to 2,055.56 Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 25,225.19 Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,526.87 Sensex down 0.4% to 59,771.92 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,427.99 Kospi up 0.3% to 2,983.22 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.18% Euro down 0.5% to $1.1551 Brent Futures up 0.8% to $82.57/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,776.28 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.37% to 94.21 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The Bank of England will decide Thursday whether to deliver its first interest-rate hike since the pandemic as a divided Monetary Policy Committee grapples with spiking inflation and slowing growth The U.S. is asking OPEC+ to increase output by as much as 800,000 barrels a day, said delegates and diplomats, but the organization is expected to stick to its planned gradual increase, according to a Bloomberg survey Investors are hoping the Federal Reserve can manage the path toward rate hikes as smoothly as its taper announcement, according to strategists, who are cautiously optimistic the coming months will see moderate advances for yields, the dollar and equities. Friday’s labor report is seen as the next flash point for markets, given rates traders remain relatively aggressive about the need for Chair Jerome Powell to avoid being overly patient about hiking borrowing costs Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida helped further shore up the nation’s commitment to its 2% inflation goal and tamp down any lingering speculation of a rethink of the target or tapering plans Having abandoned its experimental bond-yield target two days ago, the Reserve Bank of Australia is now left with the trusty old tools of policy making -- facing traders who still reckon it’s behind the curve Here is a more detailed breakdown of global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded higher amid tailwinds from the fresh record highs stateside in the aftermath of the FOMC where the Fed announced it is to begin tapering asset purchases but suggested it was in no rush to hike rates. ASX 200 (+0.5%) was kept afloat by advances in tech and financials but with gains in the index capped after weak Retail Sales data and rising COVID-19 cases for Australia’s most populous states, while the energy sector underperformed after oil prices tumbled 4.5% yesterday due to bearish inventory data and the announcement that Iran nuclear talks will resume on November 29th in Vienna. Nikkei 225 (+0.9%) was buoyed on return from holiday as it coat-tailed on the recent advances in USD/JPY and with Japan mulling easing border controls as soon as next Monday, with Toyota also holding on to gains after a jump in H1 profits and JPY 150bln buyback announcement, although the Nikkei finished well off intraday highs after stalling on approach to the 30k level. Hang Seng (+0.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) conformed to the broad upbeat mood but was slow to start after another substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC despite the suggestion by Chinese press that recent reverse repo action showed stabilisation efforts. In addition, COVID-19 concerns continued to linger with Beijing having suspended inbound trains from 23 regions to curb the spread of the virus, while there was also attention on the geopolitical front after the US Department of Defense warned that China’s nuclear stockpile is outpacing forecasts and with China conducting week-long live-fire drills in the East China Sea. Finally, 10yr JGBs were steady with only a slight pullback seen from yesterday’s advances and with prices largely ignoring the subdued picture in T-notes which were pressured heading into the Fed taper announcement, while JGBs were also kept afloat after the 10yr inflation-indexed auction from Japan which showed an increase in both the b/c and lowest accepted prices. Top Asian News From Pianos to Paint, the Chip Crunch Is Hurting Japan Earnings Toyota’s Swelling Profits Belie Global Auto Parts Shortages EU Lawmakers’ Call for High Level Taiwan Ties Defies China Shimao Halts Retail Investors’ Bids for Local Bonds After Plunge Stocks in Europe hold onto the positive bias (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%; Stoxx 600 +0.5%) - which originally emanated from the post-FOMC Wall Street session and later reverberated across APAC. US equity futures have been consolidating following yesterdays post-Powell ramp, with the NQ (+0.4%) outperforming the RTY (+0.2%), ES (+0.1%) and YM (Unch). Back to Europe, bourses are posting broad-based gains in what was a morning doused in European corporate updates, whilst the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.4%) is on standby for the BoE policy decision (full preview available in the Newsquawk Research Suite). Sectors in Europe are mostly firmer with no real overarching bias. Oil & Gas lead the gains following yesterday’s underperformance and in the run-up to the JMMC/OPEC+ meetings later today. Healthcare meanwhile is boosted by pharma-behemoths Roche (+2.5%) and Novartis (+1.6%) after the firms agreed on a bilateral transaction for the sale of 53.3mln (approximately 33%) Roche bearer shares held by Novartis for a total consideration of USD 20.7bln. This in turn has pushed the SMI (+0.8%) to modestly outperform the region. The Telecoms sector is also buoyed by BT (+5.7%) amid constructive earnings, but gains for the sector are capped Telefonica (-1.6%), who hold a larger sector weighting, following their metrics. The morning has been busy in terms of bank earnings, although the sector is constrained by yield dynamics. Nonetheless, SocGen (+3.3%), ING (+1.1%), Commerzbank (+5.2%) and Credit Suisse (+0.7%) all reported today – with the latter also announcing the exit of its prime brokerage activities and will be shifting its focus on to its wealth management business in a bid to better manage risks. Over to the consumer sector, Sainsbury’s (-4.3%) trundles lower after flagging complications from supply chain issues. Finally, in terms of M&A, Alstria Office (+17.5%) soars after Brookfield offered to buy the Co. for EUR 19.50/shr in cash, a premium to yesterday’s EUR 16.62/shr closing price. Top European News Brookfield Enters German Real Estate Fray With Bid for Alstria Credit Suisse Flags Loss Next Quarter to Cap Year to Forget Novartis Unwinds Roche Ties With $20.7 Billion Stake Sale Aston Martin Counts on $3 Million Valkyrie as SUV Drives Rebound In FX, the Dollar has erased all and more of its initial or knee-jerk declines in wake of the FOMC policy meeting that confirmed the start of QE tapering in a few days' time at the pre-announced pace, but kept clear distance between the unwinding of asset purchase and rate lift-off. However, there was a subtle tweak to the language regarding inflation to indicate less of a transitory assessment and Fed chair Powell refrained from using the ‘t’ word in his press conference before responding to a question by saying that it is also used to convey the view that prices rises caused by bottlenecks and supply-demand imbalances will not leave a legacy of persistently higher inflation. In index terms, a marginally higher peak at 94.280 vs 94.217 at best on Wednesday follows a fractionally higher low of 93.818 vs 93.809 and brings Monday’s w-t-d apex (94.313) back into contention ahead of Challenger Lay-offs, jobless claims, trade data and Q3 labour costs that were highlighted by Powell as a key gauge of tightness in the labour market, which he expected to reach max employment levels by mid-2022. EUR - Mixed Eurozone services and composite PMIs have not afforded the Euro any protection from the aforementioned Greenback revival, while the yield backdrop is also weighing as EGB/UST spreads widen, but Eur/Usd might glean some support from option expiries as 1.1 bn resides at 1.1550 and 1.1525. Moreover, the headline pair has found underlying bids around the half round number and a recent trough comes in at 1.1535 (October 29) ahead of the double 2021 low of 1.1525. GBP - Sterling is also succumbing to the broad Buck bounce, but also treading cautiously into the BoE amidst a marked unwind of rate hike pricing via Short Sterling contracts alongside a recovery in UK debt. Cable is hovering around 1.3620 having pulled up just shy of 1.3700 and options are anticipating an 80 pip break-even for the live MPC event that is far from certain even though ‘markets’ are anticipating a 15 bp hike. Note also, implied volatility on the Eur/Gbp straddle suggests a 43 pip move either way, though the cross may also be prone to movement from the current 0.8491-65 range pending developments in France where Brexit Minister Frost is aiming to untangle crossed lines over fishing licences. NZD/AUD/CAD - The Kiwi, Aussie and Loonie are all weaker vs their US counterpart, with Nzd/Usd and Aud/Usd hovering in the low 0.7100s and 0.7400s respectively, and the latter not far off post-RBA reversal lows after downbeat Q3 retail sales and exports within the overall trade balance overnight. Meanwhile, only a tame rebound in crude prices appears to be capping Usd/Cad around a 1.2400 axis in advance of Canadian trade and the jobs face-off with the US on Friday. CHF/JPY - Relative outperformers, or at least holding up better than other majors in the face of the Dollar rebound, as the Franc meanders between 0.9144-11 irrespective of a deterioration in Swiss consumer sentiment and the Yen contains losses below 114.00 on the return of Japanese markets from Culture Day to a benign bond backdrop overall. Note, hefty option expiry interest may keep Usd/Jpy restrained as 2.1 bn sits at the round number and a further 1.8 bn at 114.30. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures have firmer on the day as the benchmarks clamber off yesterday’s worst levels despite the rampant Dollar and in the run-up to the JMMC and OPEC+ meetings slated for 13:00GMT and 14:00GMT respectively (full preview available in the Newsquawk Research Suite). Markets expect a continuation of the current plan to ease output curbs by 400k BPD/m. Outside calls have been getting louder for the producers to open the taps more than planned amid inflationary feed-through to consumers and company margins, although ministers, including de-facto heads Saudi and Russia, have been putting weight behind current plans, with no pushback seen from members within OPEC+ thus far. Furthermore, the COVID situation in China is deteriorating, hence ministers will likely express a cautious approach. However, the US is asking OPEC+ to increase supply by 600-800k BPD, according to delegates. Note some journalists noted that there are three options the US has offered OPEC+, 1) a 600k BPD hike, 2) an 800k BPD hike and 3) 100% compliance on a 400k BPD hike. Nonetheless, sources suggested OPEC+ is likely to stick to plans to raise output by 400k BPD despite calls from the US for extra supply; adding that the US has plenty of capacity to raise output itself. The US-OPEC+ dynamics will be worth keeping on the radar following this meeting. As a reminder, the US threatened the release of its SPR whilst also refusing to rule out oil export bans – suggesting that all tools are being looked at in a bid to lower prices. It’s also worth being cognizant of the knock-on effect the OPEC+ decision will have on Iranian nuclear talks – scheduled to resume on November 29th – with higher oil prices and a lack of OPEC+ coordination, possibly providing more incentives for the US to offer more concessions. WTI Dec takes aim at USD 82/bbl (vs 79.74/bbl low) at the time of writing whilst Brent Jan extends above USD 83/bbl (vs 81.07/bbl low). Metals markets are less interesting this morning, spot gold and silver are consolidating and trade relatively flat, with the former around USD 1,775/oz and the latter just north of USD 23.50/oz. Meanwhile, LME copper is modestly firmer but trades on either side of USD 9,500/t. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 275,000, prior 281,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.15m, prior 2.24m 8:30am: 3Q Unit Labor Costs, est. 7.0%, prior 1.3%; Nonfarm Productivity, est. -3.1%, prior 2.1% 8:30am: Sept. Trade Balance, est. -$80.2b, prior -$73.3b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap This morning I’m actually going to put a suit on for the first time in nearly 20 months. In a way I’ll be upset if it fits me as I’ve been doing my Bryson DeChambeau weights routine for much of this time between pockets of injuries and surgery. However, I suspect 30-40mins 3 or 4 times a week won’t leave my suit too vulnerable to an “Incredible Hulk” moment when I put it on. There was no dramatic Hulk-like metamorphosis from the Fed last night as they kept close to expectations and delivered the $15/bn a month taper that our US econ team and consensus expected (Their full review is here). They pre-announced the purchase pace for November and December, whilst remarking that a similar pace would likely prevail so long as the economy evolves as expected. The Fed maintained the pace of taper would change in step with any changes to the outlook. The statement slightly tweaked the characterisation of inflation, noting that it was expected to be transitory. Chair Powell explained this in the press conference, maintaining the institutional view that elevated inflation was not expected to remain persistent and would return to the Fed’s long-term goal as supply bottlenecks abated and Covid-19 moved to the rear-view mirror. He also admitted the change reflected the reality that inflation has been much higher than they had expected, and recognised the burdens that it created for everyday consumers. The press conference spent a lot of time focusing on the dichotomy between high near-term inflation and the Committee’s assessment of full employment, as the market moves to pricing when lift-off will take place. The Chair noted the Committee will need to be flexible when judging what constitutes full employment, as it is a moving target and has moved since before the pandemic. A key point he returned to multiple times is the Committee would need to judge how the labour market evolves once the Delta variant is well and truly behind us. While stressing patience in evaluating these incoming data, he maintained optionality by also noting the Fed would stand ready to raise rates if inflation were threating to move persistently above the Fed’s goal. This risk management consideration is why they’re maintaining flexibility over the pace of taper. STIR markets were still pricing lift-off to take place sometime in 3Q 2022, and for there to be 2 hikes next year, unchanged from before the meeting. Equities were mostly flat on the day before the announcement but progressively climbed higher during and after the presser, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and DJIA finishing the day +0.65%, +1.04%, and +0.29% higher, respectively. 2yr yields increased +1.8bps on the day but closed roughly where they were pre-announcement. 10yr yields were +5.3bps higher on the day though with around +4bps added post FOMC and around +9bps from the early lows when fixed income was rallying across the globe. Elsewhere, 10yr breakevens were wider, increasing +3.6bps to 2.56%. Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde sounded in no hurry to follow the BoE (preview immediate below for today) and the Fed on rate hikes. In a speech yesterday, she said that their three conditions for raising rates “are very unlikely to be satisfied next year”, as “the outlook for inflation over the medium term remains subdued” in spite of the recent surge in inflation. She re-emphasised the point in an interview almost verbatim later in the day while the Fed presser was ongoing, stating a 2022 hike was very unlikely, offering more forceful pushback of market pricing than she opted for during last week’s Governing Council meeting. Central banks will remain in the spotlight again today thanks to the BoE’s policy decision, which is out at 12:00 London time. Our UK economists are expecting that they’ll deliver their first post-pandemic rate hike of 15bps, taking the Bank Rate up to 0.25%, as well as end their current QE program. Similarly to the US, this comes amidst inflation readings that have persistently surprised to the upside over recent months, with CPI at +3.1% in September, and our economists write that they see the BoE’s forecasts being upgraded to show peak CPI nearer to 5%, remaining above target for nearly all of next year, which is broadly in line with recent comments from Chief Economist Pill in a recent FT interview. For more details see their preview (link here). Against this backdrop of central bank action, we had some solid economic data out of the US yesterday that further supported risk appetite. First, there was the ISM services index for October, which rose to a record high of 66.7 (vs. 62.0 expected), so a very promising sign at the start of Q4, even if the prices paid measure rose to 82.9, which was the highest since 2005. Before that we also had the ADP’s report of private payrolls for October, which showed an increase of +571k (vs. +400k expected), which is the strongest growth since June. That comes ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs report, where our economists are looking for growth of +400k in the headline nonfarm payrolls number, with the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.7%. I’ve been trying to get my mantra of the US more likely travelling down a “growthflation” path (over “stagflation”) into the vernacular. However, I think I’ll need a better term if I want it to rival say “BRICs”! That backdrop of positive data supported European markets ahead of the Fed, where the STOXX 600 advanced +0.35% to hit another all-time high. Sovereign bonds advanced too, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.3bps), OATs (-0.8bps) and BTPs (-2.4bps) all moving lower, though gilts (+3.6bps) were the exception ahead of the BoE later. The strong data also lifted us off the yield lows of the day as we started with a big bond rally. We also saw some significant movements in energy prices, with European natural gas futures surging back +13.23% yesterday amidst a recent decline in fuel shipments from Russia, whilst both Brent crude (-3.22%) and WTI (-3.63%) oil prices saw a major pullback ahead of today’s OPEC+ meeting. In Asia, most major indices are trading higher this morning, including the Nikkei 225 (+0.74%), the KOSPI (+0.30%), the Hang Seng (+0.27%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.64%), amid gains in US equities yesterday. S&P 500 futures (+0.01%) are almost unchanged, while the 10y US Treasury is at 1.60% (-0.5bps). Meanwhile on the political scene, the US Democrats were reacting to a bad set of results in Tuesday’s election, after the Republicans won the Virginia governor’s race. However, the New Jersey governor’s race was won by Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy 50.2% vs 49%, but came in much closer than the polls had suggested before the election. Gov. Murphy is the first Democrat to win re-election as governor in the state since 1977. Overall though, since President Biden won those two states in 2020 by 10pts and 16pts, respectively, the results have obviously come as a shock to many Democrats. The situation has strong echoes of 2009, a year after President Obama’s election when the Democrats also had control of the presidency and both houses of Congress, when they were trying to push through Obamacare. That round of elections saw the Republicans win the gubernatorial elections in both Virginia and New Jersey (following Democratic victories on the previous occasion), before the Republicans went onto make sizeable gains in the 2010 midterm elections the following year. There’s still just over a year until President Biden’s first set of midterm elections, but the Democrats will be hoping this doesn’t presage a repeat of those 2010 losses. Lastly on the data front, US factory orders grew by +0.2% in September (vs. +0.1% expected). Separately, the UK’s composite PMI was revised up a point from the flash reading to 57.8, and the US composite PMI was also revised up three-tenths to 57.6. To the day ahead now, and the highlight will be the aforementioned BoE meeting, while there’ll also be remarks from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s de Cos, Elderson and Schnabel, and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe. On the data side, releases include German factory orders for September, the Euro Area October services and composite PMIs and September PPI reading, whilst from the US there’s the September trade balance and the weekly initial jobless claims. Lastly, the OPEC+ group will be meeting to discuss output, and earnings releases today include Moderna, Square, Airbnb, Uber, Duke Energy and Regeneron. Tyler Durden Thu, 11/04/2021 - 07:53.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 4th, 2021

Seven Reasons Democrats Lost Virginia

Seven Reasons Democrats Lost Virginia Authored by Carl. M. Cannon via RealClear Politics (emphasis ours), When Terry McAuliffe kicked off his third gubernatorial candidacy last December, some leading Virginia Democrats had mixed emotions. On one hand, party activists believed that in Jennifer Carroll Foy and Jennifer McClellan — two female African American lawmakers in the state legislature — they had credible candidates waiting in the wings to make history. The worry, which turned out to be accurate, was that the presence of a former governor with a famous fundraising prowess would squeeze them out. (AP Photo/Steve Helber) At the same time, party elders figured that McAuliffe’s candidacy would prevent the worst-case scenario: namely, that Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, who was accused of forcing himself sexually on two women, would somehow win the Democratic primary. So Democrats consoled themselves. “Terry” had been a popular governor the first time around, they told themselves, and was always an energetic campaigner. “Certainly, he comes into the race in a very formidable position,” veteran Virginia political scholar Bob Holsworth said at the time. “He’s a popular former governor. He has tons of resources. And he loves to campaign. At the same time, the open question in this campaign is whether he is the person for the moment.” The answer turned out to be no. On Tuesday, after a rolling election that lasted two full months, none of those assets was enough. McAuliffe lost a close election to Republican neophyte Glenn Youngkin. The tally, with 94% of the vote counted, is 50.7% to 48.6%. Meanwhile, in a potentially shocking upset in New Jersey, Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli holds a 1,200-vote edge over incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy with 97% of the total counted. If Ciattarelli holds on for victory, the result will defy the pre-election polling — and leave Democrats stunned and Republicans counting the days until the 2022 midterms. In Virginia, a large and diverse state, a close election hinges on many factors. Here are seven. Reason 1: McAuliffe’s previous tenure in office wasn’t an advantage. Because Old Dominion governors cannot succeed themselves, McAuliffe was hampered from running on his record in the traditional way, i.e., boasting how well the state’s economy is doing, for instance, because someone else currently occupies the governor’s mansion. At the same time, McAuliffe was an old familiar warhorse who ran in 2009 (when he lost the primary) and 2013 (when he won the general election), and who was a top Clinton fundraiser and foot soldier and Democratic Party leader for decades. By contrast, Glenn Youngkin was a fresh face in a year in which the electorate in Virginia, as elsewhere, is in a sour and restive mood and incumbency itself — as Gov. Murphy may have learned in New Jersey — is its own liability.  Also, McAuliffe’s tenure in Richmond seems like a long time ago in U.S. politics, even though it really wasn’t. Since he left office, Americans have endured a lethal and disruptive pandemic, the turbulence of the Donald Trump years, and a spike in the culture wars. And the Virginia campaign was sucked into the vortex of all of it.  Reason 2: Terry McAuliffe rarely said why he wanted to be governor again. Did he want to be in a position to run for president in 2024, a goal he hinted at in 2018? Was he bored? Is he simply addicted to competitive politics? On the rare occasions when McAuliffe engaged this subject, his utterances were anodyne. “This pandemic is a turning point in our lives, and our goal can’t be just to go back to where we were before,” he said as he began his campaign. “We need to think big and act bold to take Virginia to the next level. And the one thing that has the opportunity to lift up all Virginians is education.”  In one sense, this boilerplate rhetoric proved prescient: Education — specifically, how and who should run the commonwealth’s public schools — was the issue that probably decided the outcome, albeit not in a way Democrats foresaw. Reason 3: It’s the parents, stupid. On Sept. 29, a day when the RealClearPolitics polling average showed McAuliffe leading with 46.9% support (to Youngkin’s 43.4%), the candidates squared off in a debate. That night, Youngkin made two points that resonated with many voters with school-age children. The first was a broad, pandemic-era complaint: “What we’ve seen over the course of the past 20 months is school systems refusing to engage with parents.”  To illustrate this claim, Youngkin invoked an issue usually associated with cultural conservatives: a bill Gov. McAuliffe vetoed that would have given parents more agency over sexually explicit books in school libraries. “I believe parents should be in charge of their kids’ education,” Youngkin added. McAuliffe took the bait — and then some. He began his rebuttal by scoffing at Youngkin for being “clueless” because he’d never held elective office. “I’m not going to let parents come into schools and actually take books out and make their own decisions,” McAuliffe added. That would have been sustainable, possibly even deft. But for some reason, he punctuated that thought with these 12 fateful words: “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.”  The Youngkin campaign promptly ran ads consisting simply of a video clip of the exchange. By Election Day, Youngkin pressed his advantage repeatedly. “This is no longer a campaign,” he said. “It is a movement where we are … standing up and saying we have a fundamental right to be engaged in our kids’ education.”  Youngkin may have been a political novice, as McAuliffe pointed out snidely, but his instincts were better than those of an opponent who’d been in politics all his adult life. McAuliffe, with controversial teachers’ union president Randi Weingarten at his side, managed to galvanize thousands of tiger moms in opposition. Dads, too. Exit polling showed that 53% of voters said that parents should have “a lot of say” in their children’s education.  “That was a disaster for him,” veteran political strategist David Axelrod said Tuesday night as the votes rolled in. “I think the context was a little skewed … but it clearly galvanized voters.”  Reason 4: As the race tightened, McAuliffe doubled down on his approach to education. In the homestretch, he sounded less like the moderate middle-aged swing state Democrat who won the governorship eight years ago and more like a Gen-Z social justice warrior angling for a sinecure in a teachers’ union local. Critical race theory? Not taught anywhere in Virginia, McAuliffe maintained repeatedly — and inaccurately. Merely mentioning CRT, he sneered, is “a racist dog whistle.” McAuliffe also accused Glenn Youngkin of plotting to make abortion illegal in Virginia — which is not a power the governor possesses — and did so without feeling constrained by the facts.  By the last days of the campaign, McAuliffe was in full-on identity politics mode, asserting that minority students are made uneasy by the mere presence of white teachers. “In Virginia schools, K-12, 50% are students of color and yet 80% of teachers are white,” he said. “We all know what we have to do in a school to make everybody feel comfortable in school, so let’s diversify.”  What was the strategy here? To pump up the African American and Hispanic vote, one assumes, by making race a central component of the campaign. It may have backfired. At the least, it didn’t galvanize enough minority voters. Nor did the presence on the stump of Barack Obama and Vice President Kamala Harris change the equation. President Biden campaigned in Virginia, too, echoing all of McAuliffe’s negative talking points, most especially the one that ultimately became the Democrats’ whole ballgame: trying to morph Glenn Youngkin into Donald Trump’s clone.  [ZH]: Turns out telling parents that they have no say in their kids education and their kid is also a racist was a bad campaign strategy — Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) November 3, 2021 Reason 5: For his part, Youngkin threaded the needle nicely on Trump. When this race began last summer, Glenn Youngkin was unknown in Virginia politics. Those who did know his name remembered him as a high school basketball star in the Tidewater area whose father played hoops at Duke. Youngkin himself played collegiately at Rice before going into business. With wealth accrued as a partner in a private equity firm, Youngkin was able to self-fund a Republican primary campaign in which he dispatched with not one, but two, Trump disciples. But he managed to do so without alienating the former president. Trump might have preferred one of the others, especially when Youngkin quietly rebuffed his offer to come campaign. But Trump clearly appreciated that Youngkin never bad-mouthed him, and the 45th president responded accordingly: He told his supporters to flood to the polls. Successfully negotiating the mine field of Trump’s prickly ego not only helped Youngkin win on Tuesday. It also illuminated the path for future GOP candidates competing in states and districts that aren’t deep Republican red. Reason 6: Virginia gubernatorial elections are traditionally tough for the party in the White House. Of the last 12 Virginia governors going back to 1977, when Republican John Dalton won office during Jimmy Carter’s first year in the Oval Office, 11 of them belonged to a different party than the president. This phenomenon can’t be blamed on Joe Biden any more than it can be blamed on Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, the Bushes, Barack Obama — or Donald Trump. In some years, the Virginia results portend a sea change, as was the case in 1993 when George Allen’s victory was an early sign of the “Republican Revolution” that gave the GOP control of both houses on Capitol Hill just one year later. Other times, such as in 1997, it foreshadowed nothing. One historical footnote: The only time in the past 44 years that a Virginia gubernatorial candidate belonging to the same party as the president won was in 2013 when Barack Obama was president (and Joe Biden was vice president). That candidate? None other than Terry McAuliffe. It was asking a lot of him to repeat that feat. As it happened, it was asking too much. Reason 7: Something was afoot Tuesday night, not just in the Virginia governor’s race — and not just in Virginia. In the Old Dominion, Republicans also picked up the lieutenant governorship — electing the first black woman to win statewide in Virginia history — while ousting a Democratic attorney general. In Minneapolis, voters overwhelmingly rejected a change in the city charter that would have restructured the much-maligned local police department. In Buffalo, a socialist who had won the Democratic primary for mayor was defeated by a write-in vote that went overwhelmingly to the incumbent. New York City’s new mayor is an ex-police officer who favors gun rights. Across the river in New Jersey — in the shock of the night —Ciattarelli has the incumbent Murphy on the ropes. This, in a state Joe Biden carried by 16 percentage points just one year ago. Is President Biden a disappointment to voters, a drag on down-ticket Democrats? Perhaps, but that seems too tidy an explanation. It’s true that after a healthy honeymoon with voters, Biden’s job approval rating has plummeted amid continued spikes in violent crime, the debacle in Afghanistan, chaos at the border, the continuing coronavirus pandemic, inflation in food and energy prices, and economic uncertainty propelled by a novel problem — employers can’t find enough workers to fill the jobs they have. And though it’s also true that Republicans are giddy this morning about finishing what they started come next year’s midterms, one plausible conclusion from Tuesday’s vote is that a majority of voters want Biden to be the president he promised to be. He was the moderate who defeated a slew of presidential contenders to his left — the one who vowed to work for all Americans, not just those who supported him. Yet he and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi somehow find themselves under the thumb of the left wing of their own party. This nation’s electorate rejected the excesses of Trumpism. Tuesday was another corrective, a reminder to the Democratic Party that although few moderates remain in Washington, tens of millions of them live outside the Beltway. They are paying attention and they vote. Carl M. Cannon is the Washington bureau chief for RealClearPolitics. Reach him on Twitter @CarlCannon. Tyler Durden Wed, 11/03/2021 - 20:20.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 3rd, 2021

Interview With Jared Bernstein From CNBC’s WEC Summit Today

Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with White House Council of Economic Advisers Member Jared Bernstein at CNBC’s WEC Summit, which took place today, Wednesday, November 3rd. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Interview With Jared Bernstein TYLER MATHISEN: But first, President Biden campaigned on issues very important to US […] Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with White House Council of Economic Advisers Member Jared Bernstein at CNBC’s WEC Summit, which took place today, Wednesday, November 3rd. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Interview With Jared Bernstein TYLER MATHISEN: But first, President Biden campaigned on issues very important to US workers. And as the stripped down Build Back Better plan snakes its way through Congress, what can employers expect from the White House? Jared Bernstein is a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers and your interview right now is CNBC Senior White House Correspondent, Kayla Tausche. Kayla? KAYLA TAUSCHE: Tyler, thank you and our thanks to Jared Bernstein for joining us as well. Jared, let's kick it off by talking specifically about where the White House sees the labor market right now. The US still has not regained about 5 million jobs since before the pandemic and yet workers are quitting their jobs at stunning rates. So, tell us what policies is the White House considering to either get employees and employers to create new jobs and to help them retain the workers that they have? JARED BERNSTEIN: Well, that's a great question to start us off and I'm very happy to see you and appreciative to have this opportunity. Probably the first place to start is the historical pace of job gains since President Biden took office. 600,000 jobs per month, almost 5 million jobs added since he got here. Unemployment claims now finally back down to where they were before the pandemic took hold and over 10 million job openings, another historic record. The unemployment rate at 4.8%. CBO, the Congressional Budget Office, in their pre pandemic forecast before we had the rescue plan in place, believed it was going to be many years from now before the unemployment rate fell below 5%. So I think there's just it's not at all controversial to argue that the labor market is strong, adding jobs at an historical clip, and that the fingerprints of the rescue plan, particularly shots in arms and checks in pockets helping families and businesses get to the other side of the crisis is instrumental in that regard also had positive wage growth, acceleration particularly in in sectors with strong labor demand. So, I think we're gonna continue to pull folks into a, into a strong job market. TAUSCHE: And while those programs that you mentioned Jared they did go a long way in putting money in people's pockets, there has also been this added specter of inflation during that time. And if you just look at the data over the last year from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation is up 5.5% roughly over the last year. In the same time, average hourly wages are down close to 1%. So do companies just simply need to pay more to workers and in some cases, a lot more to get them in these jobs? BERNSTEIN: Well there has been considerable increase in wage offers, and by the way, we see that significantly in some sectors with very strong labor demand like leisure, hospitality restaurants, but also among newly hired workers. That's an interesting finding out of the Atlanta Fed, but let's unpack your question. It's so important. The President has consistently stated that he is very much aware of the constraints on family budgets when inflationary pressures are upon the economy and you're right, they are and they are very much intimately I would say inseparably connected to the pandemic and to the supply constraints that are a result of the pandemic. By the way, a very good way to look at this in my view probably somewhat underappreciated, is simply look at the inflation rates of every other advanced economy. They're also highly elevated. One of the drivers there by the way is, is motor vehicles and that has a lot to do once again with supply chain constraints related to the virus and, and the semiconductor issue they're in. Now in terms of real wages, if you actually look at the last few months, not year over year, which was what you were citing perfectly legitimate site by the way Kayla, that's a that's, that's a true stat. But if you look more narrowly at the recent months, whether it's the employment cost index or average pay in the establishment survey, you actually see that beating inflation. You see, you see wages, beating inflation for low wage workers, which is interesting, and that's important because of the strong labor demand story I've been telling. I think just completing this part of our analysis I'm certainly willing to talk about it more if you like. If you look at where we and every other forecaster including the Federal Reserve believe these dynamics are headed, it's for continued tightness in the labor market, the employment rate continuing to fall, wage pressures continuing to be strong and inflation to come down. So, every forecast including our own, has wages, wages beating prices once the supply constraints ameliorate. TAUSCHE: So, Jared, if you think that wage growth is actually stronger than some of this data lets on than what intangibles are missing? What do companies need to be offering their workers to entice them to take some of these jobs and what can the government provide to fill in some of those gaps? BERNSTEIN: Yeah, let me start, that’s another great question. Let me start with the second part of that question because it feeds right into of course what we're focusing on right now which is passing landmark transformative legislation both in terms of the Build Back Better plan and the infrastructure plan. I think this is so important for the audience of folks that we're talking to today both in terms of infrastructure, productivity, efficiency, getting goods to market, kind of greasing the skids of commerce, but also in terms of diversity. I know we have a lot of diversity officers in the, in the room. We are talking about the most transformative investment in children and caregiving in generations and this helps create a pathway toward it's one of the reasons why other advanced economies who have more affordable and accessible childcare have higher participation rates in the labor market, especially for women and especially for, for moms. We're talking about an investment that could provide 35 million families help through expanding the child tax credit and allow middle-income families to pay no more than 7% of their income on childcare. Again, critical pathway into the labor market. TAUSCHE: But Jared— BERNSTEIN: Sorry. TAUSCHE: No doubt, no doubt that would certainly go a long way but that is if it gets passed and right now, the path to doing so is unclear at best. I'm wondering if you could, if you could handicap for us exactly when you think we could see some of these pieces of legislation get passed and how you think they will change between now and then? BERNSTEIN: Sure. I'll get to that in a sec. I do want to go to the first part of your question though, particularly given our audience today, which what can employers do? Well, I think one of the important things is, is happening already which is employers particularly in the lower wage sectors are boosting wage offers so they're paying attention to price signals and I think that, that's something we kind of expect in this, in this sort of a labor market and that's happening. One of the areas that's important to me as someone who's done labor economics for a lot of years is, is not just the wage side of the compensation package and not even just the benefit side either though that's of course very important, but the scheduling side as well. I think to the extent that employers can help workers with tricky scheduling in an economy that has so many challenges for working families. Challenges that as I just said I think we helped to meet with our, with our reconciliation plan. I think that's really helpful. I like this idea of scheduling banks where essentially the employer tells a group of workers, I'm not gonna micromanage your schedule. It's up to you to make sure you have somebody there, those scheduling banks have actually had a good track record. In terms of the progress, look, this is, you know, this couldn't be a higher. Sorry. I don't think I've talked this much today yet so let me just get a glass, a sip of water. You know, this couldn't be a higher priority for this President and we are making progress toward the goal. Look, you know me Kayla, I'm gonna, I'm an economic, I'm an economic policymaker. I'm not the political force here and I've commented on, you know, CNBC for many years on the economics of this policy without I think, thankfully through the viewers getting deep into the political process. What I can say is that the President and our team have been working extremely hard to get the different factions of the party to support the plan and they've been making real progress. I’m hearing congressional leadership and it's up to them in terms of the timing of these votes making very positive sounds in terms of progress towards, towards the legislative goal line. TAUSCHE: There have been some very high-profile proponents of pieces of this package, I'm thinking namely about paid leave which has now entered back into at least the House draft of this package. I'm wondering where you are getting calls from did Meghan the Duchess of Sussex call you directly in addition to members of the hill to try and get this— BERNSTEIN: Yeah, we talk all the time. No, I did not from her. If she wants to call me, please do so, Meg. But no, I've talked to actually lots of different members from all sides. Remember, I've been in this swamp for, you know, two and a half decades or something like that. So I've been working with members really of both parties, mostly these but ours too, for so many years and we have great conversations and I have heard from the progressives, I've heard from the moderates, I've heard from the folks where climate is their, is their major concern. I had a great conversation, it was a private one so I'm not going to name names, with, with a, with a senator about housing policy. We have 150 billion of highly important progressive supply side adding housing policies in this plan that hasn't gotten enough attention and that's, that's on the docket, too. In terms of paid family leave, yes, I mean not well, I've heard from members but when I joined President Biden and the campaign, this was one of the first things he talked about and so we're gonna continue to fight for this, glad to hear the movement you mentioned in the House but he's not going to give up on this. That's how important he believes it is to working families. He knows personally what it's like to try to balance work and family and how important family and paid leave is to that equation. TAUSCHE: I want to pivot slightly Jared because these labor shortages are happening at a time when also employers are facing the prospect of mandates coming from the government. First it was a mandate to have individuals wear masks, face masks in certain scenarios and now a mandate for private employers with more than 100 employees to have their employees be vaccinated or be subject to a testing regime and there have been some industry organizations that have been asking the administration to delay some of these requirements because they're worried about mass resignations. And I'm wondering if a delay is something that you think has merit, if you are considering it and what you would tell some of those organizations. BERNSTEIN: Well, let me start from the economics like I always like to do then get into the more granular policy. So, I put something up on my Twitter feed the other day that was a very simple graphic. All it showed was the trajectory of the Delta caseloads, I’m sorry, the COVID caseloads, the ups and downs and of course, the most recent up and down in the Delta variant which is down about 60% off its peak from the summer and next to each hump in that trajectory, I plot I just wrote down the GDP growth rate which in the first half of this year was 6.5% on an annualized basis as you know, that is rocket fuel GDP growth and helped us build the strongest GDP recovery among the advanced economies. Last I checked we were the only one whose level of GDP is back to its pre pandemic peak. Now in the third quarter of course, GDP came in at 2% and that was the quarter where you saw that curve tick up. Now, we have forecasts for the fourth quarter where as I just mentioned, the curve is coming down again the caseload curve, and those forecasts are for 4.5% to 6%. So, the connection between a strong economy and vaccinations and the trajectory of the caseload is extremely clear to me and in fact, quite elastic. It happens very quickly. And that of course is the motivation— TAUSCHE: So are you suggesting— BERNSTEIN: Behind the vaccination program. Go ahead. TAUSCHE: So you’re suggesting that a company who is not requiring its employees to get vaccinated is sacrificing its own revenue growth in short? BERNSTEIN: You know, I would never assume to speak for an individual company. Many of them are going to face a very different outlook but I can tell you from the perspective of economic analysis that I've just shared with you and I've looked at really almost every important variable I can find, yeah, that does certainly make the case that vaccines and economic progress, strong growth, revenue growth, income growth, wage growth, jobs, GDP, industrial production, every variable I look at seems highly and positively elastic to these wiggles in the, in the caseloads. So that is, you know, that's certainly the implication of what we're seeing. TAUSCHE: And Jared you know well within the government the mandate of getting the country to full employment falls squarely to the Federal Reserve. Chair Jay Powell is speaking right now, there are several open seats on the Fed and there have, there's been some concern that the Fed has been hamstrung, has not been able to pursue some of its own priorities because of a lack of some of those chairs being filled at the Board of Governors and I'm wondering what you can say about how soon we could see some of those chairs being filled and how that will impact the trajectory for labor policy over the next few months. BERNSTEIN: Well, let me say two things about that. First thing is I'm not going to say anything about that. When I was a chin stroking pundit on CNBC, I would flap my gums and play chin music all day on a question like this, but now those kinds of things from where I sit now, those kinds of answers can move markets and certainly don't want to do that. Now, you heard the President yesterday, I think it was yesterday, maybe the day before, talking about how he's engaged in this process and will continue to be so until he names nominees, candidates but that's all I'm going to say about that. But I did want to say one other thing you know again from this perch, we don't comment on monetary policy. But one thing I did notice was that if you look at the market reaction to the Fed’s announcement that they just made about tapering, it was a very different reaction than you saw with the taper tantrum back a few years ago. And that is a sign of I'm not talking about any particular fed or any particular personnel, just from the perspective of what we as economists can learn about, not just monetary policy, but I think policy in general. That's a sign of forward guidance being used effectively to communicate actions in ways that participants understand what's coming and that's something that President Biden has tried to do on the fiscal side as well. TAUSCHE: Well, we will see if and when we get that announcement from the President for now. Jared, we appreciate your time and your perspective from the executive branch on the outlook for jobs and employment in this country and I'm sure we will speak to you soon. Jared Bernstein. BERNSTEIN: Hope so. Thank you. TAUSCHE: From the Council of Economic Advisers. Tyler. 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Category: blogSource: valuewalkNov 3rd, 2021