Check-up after check-in: Accor bets on online medicine for hotel rebound

France's Accor , which runs hotels such as Ibis and Movenpick, said on Friday it would offer its clients free access to online medical consultations run by insurer AXA as it prepares for a recovery from the coronavirus crisis......»»

Category: topSource: reutersMay 15th, 2020

Futures Rise On China Growth Hopes

Futures Rise On China Growth Hopes After US stocks were set to start week with modest gains as optimism around an economic recovery in China offset fears that the Fed is pushing the US economy off a recessionary cliff. S&P and Nasdaq futures were both up 0.4% as of 7:45 a.m. ET led by energy and tech shares, after China’s leaders said they will focus on boosting the economy next year, hinting at business-friendly policies, and further support for the property market. In premarket trading, Tesla gained after Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk polled users on Twitter over whether he should step down as head of the social-media company, with the result so far leaning toward yes. At the same time, Ardelyx slumped after the biotech said that the FDA may need “up to a few more weeks” to finalize its response to the company’s appeal over the complete response letter for its new drug application for its kidney disease therapy XPHOZAH (tenapanor). Here are some other notable premarket movers: Tesla shares gain 5.1% in US premarket trading after CEO Elon Musk polled users on Twitter over whether he should step down as head of the social-media company, with the result so far leaning toward yes. Moderna gains 4% as Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold, saying it can rebound in 2023 on a return of pipeline opportunities. Ardelyx shares drop 13% after the biotech said that the FDA may need “up to a few more weeks” to finalize its response to the company’s appeal over the complete response letter for its new drug application for its kidney disease therapy XPHOZAH. Aerojet shares rise 3% after L3Harris Technologies (LHX US) agreed to buy the rocket engine maker in a deal valued at about $4.7 billion. The purchase makes strategic sense, although analysts at Truist said the offer price looks expensive. Watch Netflix stock as its price target was raised at Morgan Stanley on the back of currency “swings,” though broker flagged risk that expectations and valuation have run “too far too fast.” Vertex Pharmaceuticals stock is downgraded to hold at Jefferies, which says that the company continues to offer a good pipeline, but risk/reward and valuation seem “balanced” following strong gains this year. KeyBanc adds to recent upgrades for PerkinElmer moving to overweight from sector weight based on transformational sale of analytical instruments business. A fourth-quarter rally in the S&P 500 fizzled out as investors grew worried the Fed would keep interest rates higher for longer despite signs of cooling in inflation. Unexpectedly hawkish comments from the European Central Bank added to the pessimism last week, keeping the benchmark index on course for its biggest annual slump since 2008. Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said although stock-index futures were climbing today, sentiment is still expected to be subdued into the year-end. “Concerns that the US will be dragged into recession as the Fed tries to tame the wild horse of inflation are still front and center,” she said. Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson warned US corporate earnings next year are facing their biggest drop since the global financial crisis as the economy weakens. That could spark a new stock-market low that’s “much worse than what most investors are expecting,” he wrote in a note. Yet while underlying stock indexes remain on track to end the month lower, some investors are starting to look past fears of an economic recession triggered by higher interest rates, and betting that inflation has peaked allowing the Federal Reserve and other central banks some leeway in tightening policy.   “Markets have begun to price in that inflation will decline, in part due to the action by central banks,” Jacob Vijverberg, multi-asset investment manager at Aegon Asset Management, told clients, pointing to recent below-forecast US inflation figures. This would help riskier assets such as higher yielding fixed income and equities to outperform, he added. European stocks also gained after a downbeat close to the past week, the Stoxx 600 rising 0.5% led by energy shares which outperformed on Monday as oil advanced following a pledge from China to revive consumption and a plan from the Biden administration to begin refilling US strategic crude reserves. The Stoxx 600 Energy sub-index rose 2.2% as of 8:30 a.m. in London, outpacing all other groups in the regional equity benchmark, which gained 0.5%. Here are the biggest Eureopean movers: BP shares rise as much as 3.3%, Shell 3.2% and TotalEnergies 3.4%. European energy shares outperform on Monday as oil advances following a pledge from China to revive consumption and a plan from the Biden administration to begin refilling US strategic crude reserves. Suedzucker shares rise as much as 6.4%, adding to last week’s strong gains following the German sugar producer’s guidance increase, with Warburg today upgrading the stock to buy from hold. Innate Pharma surged as much as 19% at the open after the French biotech company announced it had expanded its collaboration with Sanofi for natural killer cell therapeutics in oncology. Freenet shares rise as much as 4.8% after Deutsche Bank raises the stock to buy from hold, saying the telecom and media firm could be a defensive addition to portfolios in 2023. TietoEVRY shares gain as much as 3.5% after Nordea raised its recommendation to buy from hold, saying the break-up case for the firm is “becoming partly de-risked” following the announced disposals of Banking, Connect and Transform businesses. Nexi shares advance as much as 5% to lead gains on the FTSE MIB index after the government dropped a proposed measure on a minimum threshold to accept digital payments. Fugro shares dropped as much as 30%, the most since 1995, after report on involvement with 2019 dam breach in Brazil that killed 270 people. Tokmanni shares fall as much as 6.8%, extending losses into a fourth session, after Nordea cut its recommendation for the shares to hold from buy, noting the company’s “unwillingness to increase prices” hurts its investment case “at least temporarily.” Asia stocks headed lower for a third day as traders assessed rising infection numbers in China and risks of a regional economic slowdown. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased initial gains to fall as much as 0.4%, as health care and industrials dragged on the gauge. Initial optimism for stocks in China and Hong Kong faded amid concerns that Asia’s biggest economy will suffer from a spike in virus cases in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities. Beijing Covid Death Reports Fuel Concern China Hiding Data Benchmarks also slumped in Japan as the yen strengthened, joining the Philippines and South Korea lower, while India and Singapore advanced.   Asian shares could climb more than 9% through 2023, according to strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. But the road may be bumpy as uncertainty remains over the pace of China’s reopening and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Moreover, the world’s biggest money managers are set to unload up to $100 billion of stocks in the final few weeks of the year. Still, “modest valuations, light investor positioning and good fundamentals are buffers that should help Asian stocks withstand near-term volatility,” said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian and global emerging market equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. The yen strengthens and JGB futures fall on report PM Kishida may add flexibility to BOJ’s 2% inflation goal. Japan’s 5-year yield climbs to 0.145%, highest since 2015. The moves are later pared after Japan’s Matsuno denies plans to revise BOJ accord. Most currency majors grind higher against the dollar; yuan marginally softer. Asian stocks fall for third day, with Japan and China leading the retreat. Hang Seng erases a gain of as much as 1.7%, Shanghai Composite falls 1.5%. S&P futures nudge 0.1% higher, Nasdaq contracts also slightly firmer. Treasury 10-year yield adds three basis points to 3.51%; Australian curve bear steepens after 10-year yield jumps six basis points. WTI crude rises to around $75.20; gold muted near $1,792. Australia stocks edged lower: the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.2% to close at 7,133.90, with real-estate shares leading declines on the gauge. Shares of Star Entertainment slid 18% to become the worst performer on the gauge after the government issued new proposed tax changes that may impact its business. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.7% to 11,518.14 Indian stocks rose the most in nearly a month, in contrast to the broader Asian market that traded lower.  The S&P BSE Sensex gained 0.8% to 61,806.19, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index also advanced by a similar measure. Benchmark indexes in most other regional economies, including China, Hong Kong and Japan, fell. Broad-based buying in the market lifted overall sentiments, said Osho Krishan, senior analyst, technical and derivative research, Angel One. “Technically, there has been no substantial change in the market outlook as the bulls made a comeback from their support zone and showcased their resilience,” Krishan said.  The gains come as demand in India’s large domestic market cushions it from the impact of a slowing global economy. High-frequency indicators show the economic activity has stayed steady in recent months but may slow going forward as resilience wanes.  Reliance Industries gave the biggest boost to the index, adding 1.4%. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5% as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Here is how other key pairs did: The euro rose by 0.6% to 1.0653, erasing Friday’s loss after ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said half-point increases in borrowing costs will continue as officials try to tame soaring prices. In Germany, the IFO business confidence index rose to 88.6 (estimate 87.5) in December from revised 86.4 in November, according to the IFO Institute The pound rose while gilts plunged across the curve with the belly outperforming slightly as money markets added to BOE tightening wagers and traders looked ahead to QE sales starting January The yen whipsawed after reports on a potential change to a key agreement between the government and central bank fueled speculation policy makers are moving closer to a hawkish pivot. The BOJ is expected to keep monetary stimulus unchanged Tuesday, yet elevated overnight volatility in the yen reflects risk of a shift in tone when it comes to forward guidance Australian dollar climbed amid broad greenback weakness spurred by speculation of a hawkish pivot in Japan. Gains were refreshed on news that Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong will travel to Beijing on Tuesday In rates, the Treasury curve twist-steepened; the 2-year yield fell 1bp and the 10-year yield rose by around 4bps. US 10-year yields around 3.54%, cheaper by 6bps vs. Friday close with bunds and gilts lagging by additional 1.5bp and 10bp in the sector; long-end led losses widens 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 3.5bp and 3bp on the day. Dollar issuance slate remains light, with issuance likely concluded now for the year. Treasuries follow more aggressive bear steepening move across gilts, where long-end yield are cheaper by 13bp as traders look ahead to QE sales starting January. This week’s US auctions include $12b 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and $19b 5-year TIPS Thursday. In Europe, Bunds and Italian bonds extend the streak of declines to four, the longest in 6 weeks and money markets added to ECB tightening bets as markets continued to digest last week’s hawkish policy messaging. In commodities, oil futures rose boosted by Beijing’s pro-growth pledge and a US move to refill strategic crude reserves boosted oil futures, though economic growth fears kept prices on track for a second monthly loss.   Bitcoin is softer on the session, but resides towards the mid-point of relative narrow parameters. It's a quiet economic calendar, with just the NAHB Housing Market Index on deck (est. 34, prior 33). Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,894.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 426.88 MXAP down 0.2% to 156.07 MXAPJ little changed at 507.98 Nikkei down 1.1% to 27,237.64 Topix down 0.8% to 1,935.41 Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 19,352.81 Shanghai Composite down 1.9% to 3,107.12 Sensex up 0.7% to 61,781.21 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,133.87 Kospi down 0.3% to 2,352.17 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.19% Euro up 0.6% to $1.0647 Brent Futures up 1.1% to $79.90/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,796.99 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.46% to 104.22 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg EU member states will on Monday discuss a gas-price cap that’s almost one-third lower than an original proposal as they attempt to break a deadlock over the controversial proposal to contain the impact of a historic energy crisis After this winter, the EU will have to refill gas reserves with little to no deliveries from Russia, intensifying competition for tankers of the fuel. Even with more facilities to import liquefied natural gas coming online, the market is expected to remain tight until 2026, when additional production capacity from the US to Qatar becomes available. That means no respite from high prices China’s swift abandonment of Covid Zero has seen infections explode, especially in Beijing, which has seen shortages of medicine, overwhelmed hospital staff and deserted streets as residents stay home sick or to avoid the virus. That aligns with what other places experienced as they shifted from eliminating Covid to living with it — except for the lack of officially reported deaths China’s top leaders said they will focus on boosting the economy next year, hinting at business-friendly policies, further support for the property market while likely scaling back fiscal stimulus A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks eventually traded lower across the board following the downbeat performance on Wall Street on Friday. ASX 200 was weighed on by its heavyweight Financials and Healthcare sectors but losses were cushioned by gains in the metals-related names. Nikkei 225 was pressured following weekend reports that Japan's government is set to revise a 10-year-old joint statement with  the BoJ that commits the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation "at the earliest date possible," while Toshiba Corp shares slid over 5% amid Nikkei reports that its preferred bidder JIP reportedly appears to be mulling a lower valuation for a buyout. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially mixed but the former failed to hold onto opening gains whilst the latter overlooked the PBoC injecting fresh funds via 14-day reverse repo for the first time in nearly two months, with sentiment dampened by reports of two COVID-related deaths in mainland China. US equity futures traded flat within tight ranges - the ES March contract remained under 3,900. Top Asian News China reported two new COVID-related deaths in the mainland on December 18th vs zero a day earlier, according to Reuters. China's Shanghai Education Bureau said it is to shut down all in-person classes in kindergartens and childcare centres in the city from December 19th due to COVID-19 infections, according to Reuters. Chip maker Renesas Electronics (6723 JT) suspended work at its Beijing plant from Friday for several days due to the spread of COVID-19 in the city, according to Reuters. Beijing has removed or adjusted 126 COVID-19 prevention measures, and all factories and construction sites above designated size and commercial buildings in the city have fully resumed work, officials cited by Global Times said Sunday. Macau's government is to cancel COVID risk regulations for mainland China from Tuesday; arrivals from China must have a negative COVID test in the last 72 hours, according to Reuters. Hong Kong leader Lee to begin a four-day trip to Beijing on Wednesday, at which he is expected to discuss the reopening of the border with mainland China, via SCMP citing sources. Beijing, China is to buy imported COVID medicines to relive pressure on domestic shortages, via Reuters citing an official; customs will speed up the clearance for imported COVID medicines. USTR Office has announced a nine-month extension of tariff exclusion on 352 Chinese import product categories, according to Reuters. China is to maintain ample liquidity in 2023 to implement proactive fiscal policy, according to state media citing the PBoC Vice Governor. China’s Central Economic Work Conference suggested China will focus on stabilising its economy in 2023 and step up policy to ensure key targets are met, according to a statement cited by Reuters. PBoC injected CNY 9bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.00%; injects CNY 76bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.15% - for a daily net injection CNY 83bln. according to Reuters. Toshiba Corp's (6502 JT) preferred bidder JIP reportedly appears to be mulling a lower valuation for a buyout, according to Nikkei. Japan is reportedly eyeing an initial budget at a record JPY 114tln for FY23, according to Kyodo. Australia’s sovereign wealth fund is positioning for inflationary pressures to persist globally and believes that gold and other commodities will offset hindered returns across asset classes, according to Bloomberg. South Korean Finance Minister said the economy is slowing more rapidly than expected; economic slowdown is to be at its worst pace in H1 2023, via Reuters. European bourses have commenced the week on a firmer footing, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, shaking off the softer APAC handover in minimal newsflow. Sectors are firmer ex-Media/Real Estate, featuring outperformance in Energy after Friday's pressure. Stateside, futures are similarly supported, ES +0.5%, in-tandem with the European tone ahead of a sparse US docket. Top European News UK Chancellor Hunt has commissioned the OBR to prepare an economic & fiscal forecast, to be presented alongside the Spring Budget due 15th March, 2023. UK PM Sunak scrapped Liz Truss' plan to purchase energy from foreign producers, according to Sky News. Elsewhere, Sunak is set to sign off an extension to the government's energy support package for businesses for up to 12 months. Bank of France cut France's 2023 growth forecast to 0.3% (prev. 0.5%) and cut the 2024 forecast to 1.2% (prev. 1.8%), according to Reuters. ECB's de Guindos says the ECB will keep hiking rates and does not know when they will stop, not planning on altering the 2% mid-term price stability goal. ECB's Simkus is in no doubt that there will be a 50bps hike in February. ECB's Kazimir says rates will not only need to go to restrictive territory but stay there much longer. FX USD has faded despite hawkish weekend Fed rhetoric, with the DXY nearer the lower-end of 10412-83 parameters. Action which benefits peers across the board, with marked outperformance in the JPY as USD/JPY gapped lower from the 136.69 close to either side of the figure. Antipodeans are the current best performers, with the Kiwi through 0.64 vs USD at best and AUD holding above 0.67. EUR is bid but to a slightly lesser extent despite hawkish (as expected) ECB rhetoric and strong German Ifo release while Cable has reclaimed 1.22 convincingly. ZAR is the marked outperformer after Ramaphosa secures re-election as ANC leader for the 2024 presidential campaign. PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9746 vs exp. 6.9753 (prev. 6.9791) South African President Ramaphosa has been re-elected as leader of the governing ANC party. Fixed Income Bunds are facing modest pressure, though are off worst levels which occurred in wake of ECB's Kazimir which prompted the 10yr German yield to test 2.20%, action which is being felt more keenly in the periphery. Gilts are the marked underperformers after last week's relative resilience, with the UK yield around 3.45%. USTs are softer, but comparably more contained and haven't really threatened a breach of initial early-European parameters. Commodities A choppy but ultimately fairly contained start to the week for the crude benchmarks. Price action throughout the European morning has been two-way in nature and at times without an overt catalyst or driver. Currently, WTI & Brent Fed’23 are firmer by around USD 1.00/bbl on the session but are shy of their overnight peaks by around another USD 1.00/bbl, and as such are someway from last week’s respective USD 77.77/bbl and USD 75.26/bbl best levels. EU countries are reportedly mulling a gas price cap at levels lower than suggested to date, with the bloc set to meet on Monday in a bid to come to an agreement, according to a document cited by Reuters. Czech Republic proposed a EUR 188/MWh cap on Dutch TTF front-month contract vs the EUR 275/MWh cap originally suggested, according to Reuters. Saudi Aramco, Sinopec and SABIC have expanded refining and petrochemical cooperation and expect to start operations by the end of 2025, according to Reuters. Algeria is considering exporting its spare power capacity to Europe, according to the Algerian Energy Minister cited by Reuters. Uniper (UN01 GY) said the first German LNG terminal is to open in Wilhelmshaven; an annual volume of at least 5bcm of natural gas is expected to be imported, according to Reuters. El Paso Natural Gas Co. has lifted the force majeure at its Amarillo compressor station, according to Reuters. North Dakota Pipeline Authority said an estimated 200-250k BPD of oil was curtailed on Friday as a result of an extended storm system but anticipated a relatively quick return of production over the next several days, according to Reuters. USDA and USTR chiefs said Mexican officials have presented potential amendments to restrictions on genetically modified corn and other biotech products, according to Reuters. Indian antitrust agency raided some steel firms for alleged price collusion, according to Reuters sources. Peruvian President has urged congress to pass a bill to bring forward general elections amid protests, according to Reuters. Spot gold and silver are benefitting from the dented dollar while base metals derive support from the generally positive risk tone and the aforementioned unwinding of restrictions in China, with LME Copper firmer by over 1.0%. Geopolitics Blasts were heard across Ukrainian capital Kyiv early Monday morning, according to a Reuters witness. Russian military stationed in Belarus are to conduct tactical exercises, according to Interfax citing the Russian Defence Ministry Ukrainian advisor Podolyak says, to European partners, Ukraine will not surrender to or fulfil the demands of Russia; adds, "War ending can only be accelerated by increasing artillery/tanks supply. Even unilaterally…" Qatari diplomat said Qatar has been "exclusively criticised and attacked" in the investigation into the European parliament, according to a statement cited by Reuters. Qatari diplomat added that "limiting dialogue and cooperation" on Qatar before the legal process has ended will negatively affect discussions on global energy security and security cooperation. North Korea fired two ballistic missiles towards the Korean Peninsula's east coast on Sunday, according to the South Korean military cited by Reuters. The missiles appeared to have landed outside of Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), according to NHK. US State Department said the US is gravely concerned that Iranian authorities are reportedly continuing to kill protesters, according to Reuters. Italian Economy Minister urged the EU to give a strong and strategic response to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and suggested some Italian companies are considering moving production to the US, according to Reuters. Australian PM said Foreign Minister Wong is to travel to Beijing on Tuesday at the invitation of China, according to Reuters. US Event Calendar 10:00: Dec. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 34, prior 33 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Well, I had Argentina in the research World Cup sweepstake. After hours of studying form, player fatigue, different systems, the climate etc., I skillfully closed my eyes and put my hand in a jar and pulled the winners out. I will try to not let my success change me. As everyone recovers from a breathtaking final, it'll be interesting to see whether market activity drops off a cliff this week as we approach Christmas even if there was lots of unfinished business after last week. The market doesn't believe the Fed, with a pricing disconnect now opening up, and the market is now worried the ECB has upped its level of hawkishness. Outside of the ECB's Guindos and Simkus speaking today we won't hear much from these two central banks before Xmas so there is unlikely to be much official follow-through to last week's meetings. It will therefore be left to quite a full slate of data to move markets in what is likely to be a week low on liquidity. The US consumer will be a big focus with consumer confidence (Wednesday) and personal income data, along with PCE inflation (both Friday). We'll also see various housing market and business activity indicators from the US, as well as Japan's CPI report and PPI numbers from Europe. Elsewhere, the BoJ will be the last major central bank to make a monetary policy decision this year tomorrow. It could be a bit more interesting than usual as we'll see below. In terms of some of the highlights now, we start with US housing. This is obviously a big focus at the moment and today's NAHB housing index (33 DB forecast vs 33 previously), tomorrow's housing starts (1.400mn vs. 1.425mn) and building permits (1.500mn vs. 1.512mn), Wednesday's existing home sales (4.25mn vs. 4.43mn) and Friday's new home sales (600k vs. 632k) will all be important. The hard data is all expected to slow further from last month. Probably more important is Friday's income and consumption report which contains the latest reading on core PCE. Our economists think it should come in at 0.2% mom (vs. 0.2% previously), taking the YoY rate down three-tenths to 4.7%. Normally core PCE is above core CPI but over the next 12 months our economists think that anomalies in healthcare components between the two means that the former will edge above the latter at 3.2% for 2023 Q4/Q4 against 3.1%. Friday also see the final revisions to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment, including the important consumer expectations of inflation. Other business activity gauges for the US include durable goods orders on Friday, with both headline (DB forecast -3.5% vs +1.1% in October) and core (DB forecast unch vs +0.6%) seen showing signs of weakening by our US economists. Indicators of manufacturing activity from regional Feds are also due throughout the week. These releases will follow an array of downside surprises in activity-related gauges recently, including the fall in industrial production last Thursday. Over in Europe, we will get PPIs from several countries starting with Germany tomorrow. As a reminder, the latest YoY reading stands at 34.5%, some way off the 45.8% peak reached in August. October's report also showed the first MoM decrease in producer prices since May 2020 amid falling energy costs. From central banks, all eyes will be on the BoJ tomorrow and we will also get minutes from their October meeting on Thursday. Our Chief Japan economist previews the meeting and addresses the potential for YCC revision or a policy assessment here. The yen initially rallied as much as +0.61% this morning after Kyodo News reported on Saturday that Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was looking to add flexibility around the 2% inflation goal and would discuss it with the next governor after Kuroda's term ends in April. This follows Bloomberg last week reporting that a policy review is being considered for next year. However, some of the Japanese currency’s early gains today were reversed after a government spokesman denied the report and the Yen (+0.28%) is currently trading at $136.22. Following the BoJ's decision, the CPI report for Japan will be released on Thursday. Our Chief Japan economist (full preview here) expects the overall index to reach 3.9% YoY (vs +3.7% in October), the core index excluding fresh food to be up 3.8% (+3.6%), and core-core index excluding fresh food and energy to rise to 2.8% (+2.5%) as food and durable goods continue to be the key drivers of inflation. Speaking of energy prices, EU energy ministers will meet today to resume talks regarding a natural gas price cap as well as other measures to cope with the energy crisis as winter looms. Similar to the US, a number of sentiment indicators will be released in Europe. For Germany, they will include the Ifo survey today and the GfK's consumer confidence reading on Wednesday. Manufacturing and consumer confidence will also be released for Italy on Friday. Asian stock markets had a negative start to the final full trading week of 2022, tracking Friday’s losses on Wall Street as synchronised interest rate hikes and a hawkish tone from global central banks weigh on sentiment. Rising Covid-19 cases in China, particularly in Beijing, following the abandonment of Covid Zero are also adding to the bearish mood. Chinese equities are retreating with the Shanghai Composite (-1.31%) and the CSI (-1.03%) both in the red. The Nikkei (-1.15%), the KOSPI (-0.60%) and the Hang Seng (-0.45%) are also weak in early trading. In overnight trading, US stock futures are little changed with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.06%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.07%) slightly down after posting two consecutive weekly losses. In energy markets, oil futures have moved higher in Asian trading hours with Brent oil (+0.94%) trading at $79.81/bbl and WTI futures (+1.00%) at $75.03/bbl after China indicated its intention to revive consumption heading into 2023. Meanwhile, yields on 10Yr USTs are up +2.92 bps, trading at 3.51%. Looking back at last week, it was a familiar 2022 story in markets since hawkish central bank announcements from the Fed and the ECB sparked a fresh selloff. The decisions themselves were actually in line with expectations, with both hiking by 50bps. But what struck investors was the much more aggressive tone on future rate hikes than the consensus had expected. For instance, the FOMC’s dot plot signalled that rates would be at 5.1% even by end-2023, which was up from 4.6% in the September dot plot. Meanwhile, the ECB said that rates would “still have to rise significantly”, with President Lagarde explicitly pointing to further 50bp moves ahead. Given those developments, risk assets sold off across the board, with the S&P 500 ending the week -2.08% lower (-1.11% Friday). That was a massive turnaround from earlier in the week, when the index had surged on the back of the US CPI print on Tuesday that surprised to the downside. Indeed, by the close on Friday the S&P 500 was down -6.06% from its intraday peak for the week just after the release. It was a similar story elsewhere too, with the STOXX 600 down -3.28% over the week (-1.20% Friday), and the Nikkei down -1.34% (-1.87% Friday). In Europe, sovereign bonds saw significant losses in light of the ECB’s rhetoric, and yields on 10yr German bunds rose by +21.9bps (+7.0bps Friday) to 2.14%. The moves at the front-end of the curve were even larger, with the 2yr German yield up +26.5bps (+3.7bps Friday) to a post-2008 high, which came as investors increased their expectations for the ECB terminal rate. For Treasuries there was a rather different reaction however, with 10yr yields ending the week down -9.6bps (+3.6bps Friday). That occurred as investors grew increasingly confident that the Fed would be able to keep long-term inflation in check, with the 10yr breakeven down to a nearly two-year low of 2.13%. Tyler Durden Mon, 12/19/2022 - 08:06.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 19th, 2022

Futures, Global Markets Rally, Bonds Slide As Traders Turn More Bullish

Futures, Global Markets Rally, Bonds Slide As Traders Turn More Bullish Following the best week for stocks in one month, global stocks extended gains on Monday on continued easing of fears for a hawkish Fed; US futures rose, with the Nasdaq 100 advancing 0.5% as by tech giants Amazon, Apple and Microsoft all rose in premarket trading. Tech shares also boosted indexes in Europe and Asia. Treasuries slipped, pushing the rate on the US 10-year note to 3.17%. Yields have retreated from June highs on growth worries, but whether that marks the end of the Treasury bear market is a live debate. The dollar fluctuated while oil and bitcoin rose. In the US premarket, major US technology and internet stocks were higher, poised to extend gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 closed up 7.5% last week, its best week since March. Among notable movers: Apple +0.6%, Microsoft +0.6%, +1%, Meta +0.8%, Nvidia +1.6% in premarket trading. Other notable premarket movers include: (JD US) is among the top performers in US-listed Chinese stocks, rising 5% in premarket trading, after tech investor Prosus disposed of its stake in for about $3.67 billion. Coinbase (COIN US) shares fall 4% in premarket trading as the stock was downgraded to sell from neutral, with a joint Street-low price target of $45 at Goldman Sachs, which cited the “continued downdraft” in crypto prices and drop in industry activity levels. Robinhood (HOOD US) shares rise 3.9% in premarket trading as Goldman Sachs analyst William Nance raised the recommendation on the stock to neutral from sell Epizyme (EPZM US) jumps 64% to $1.56 in US premarket trading after Ipsen announced the acquisition of the US biotech firm for $1.45/share in cash plus a contingent value right of $1/share. Selective Insurance Group (SIGI US) shares may be in focus after Morgan Stanley initiated an overweight rating on the stock, citing a favorable business model that will help the company’s margin to outperform peers. Keep an eye on WEC Energy Group (WEC US) as KeyBanc Capital Markets raised the recommendation on the stock to overweight from sector weight, citing “valuation dislocations” triggered by the recent industry volatility. As Goldman traders speculated over the weekend, Friday's massive Russell rebalance may have helped flush out any leftover liquidation trades, while the upcoming month- and quarter-end portfolio rebalancing by pensions could boost stocks by as much as 7% this week according to JPM's Marko Kolanovic. Further boosting bullish sentiment - if only temporarily - one of Wall Street’s biggest bears sees the rally in US stocks extending, prior to the selloff recommencing. Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson say the S&P 500 Index may climb another 5% to 7%, before resuming losses. Meanwhile, investors are also parsing incoming data to work out if the highest inflation in a generation is close to topping out as that will give the Fed latitude to ease up on sharp interest-rate hikes, something the market last week aggressively repriced. A more troubling scenario is of lasting price pressures and tighter policy even as the global economy falters. “There’s a feeling that things aren’t as bad as we thought they were going to be,” Carol Pepper, founder of Pepper International, said on Bloomberg Radio. She added “there’s a hope that perhaps we’ve oversold, perhaps there’s not going to be a recession.” Traders are also monitoring a summit of the Group of Seven leaders, who plan to commit to indefinite support for Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion. The G-7 in addition is weighing a price cap on Russian oil. As reported yesterday, the US, UK, Japan and Canada also plan to announce a ban on new gold imports from Russia during the G-7 summit. Prices for the precious metal naturally rose. European equities trade off session highs as an earlier rally in Asian tech stocks buoys sentiment. Miners, tech and autos are the strongest performing sectors in Europe. Euro Stoxx 50 rallies 1%. DAX outperforms peers, adding 1.2%, FTSE MIB lags, dropping 0.2%.  Among notable European stock moves, Prosus NV soared on plans to sell more of its $134 billion stake in Chinese internet giant Tencent Holdings Ltd. to finance a buyback program. Mediobanca SpA fell after the death of Italian entrepreneur Leonardo Del Vecchio, the single largest investor in the bank.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Prosus shares surge as much as 17% in Amsterdam after the tech investor said it will sell down its holding in Tencent to finance an open-ended share buyback program, which could help close the gap between the firm’s market value and the value of the Tencent stake, according to analysts. Mining stocks lead gains in the Stoxx 600 Index on Monday as iron ore and base metals recover ground amid signs of improvement in China’s economy. Rio Tinto shares rise as much as 4.4%, Anglo American +4.6%, Glencore +4.2% Nordex shares jump as much as 12% after the firm announced a EU139.2m cash injection from Acciona in a bid to increase liquidity and strengthen its balance sheet to shield itself against the risks of short term headwinds in the industry. Kion shares rise as much as 7.7% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from underweight, saying that the structural case for warehouse and forklift companies remains intact even amid a de-rating for the stocks. Lundbeck soars as much as 15% after the Danish pharmaceutical company reported positive data in a clinical study of agitation in patients with Alzheimer’s dementia. Ocado shares fall as much as 3.1% after the stock was cut to neutral from outperform and PT slashed to 960p from 1,600p at Credit Suisse, with the broker saying new disclosures from the online grocer indicate that its prior assumptions were “too optimistic.” Ipsen shares drop as much as 5.1% after the pharmaceutical company announced the acquisition of US biotech Epizyme for $1.45/share in cash plus a contingent value right of $1/share. Analyst had mixed reactions to the deal. Mediobanca shares fall as much as 4.4% in Milan after news that Italian entrepreneur Leonardo Del Vecchio, the single largest investor in the bank with a stake of about 19.4%, has died. Wise shares drop as much as 5.3% after the money transfer firm said its CEO is facing a probe by UK regulators. Tecnicas Reunidas shares tumble as much as 17% after the company said it began arbitrage to recover excess costs in a dispute with the Sonatrach-Neptune Energy consortium over a contract for the Touat Gaz Plant in Algeria. Elsewhere, Russia defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced after battered technology shares rebounded as easing recession fears underpinned investor sentiment.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 2.1%, its biggest intraday gain this month, as chip and internet companies including TSMC and Alibaba climbed. Tech-heavy markets such as Taiwan and South Korea extended gains made Friday, while an index of Asian tech stocks rallied for a second straight session after dropping to the lowest since September 2020.  Asian equities are bouncing back from a two-year low, as US Treasury yields retreat. Almost all markets in the region rose, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index leading gains and China’s benchmark coming closer to a bull market as Shanghai’s leader declared victory in defending the financial hub against Covid. A Chinese tech index in Hong Kong advanced 4.7%. Still, the rally in technology shares may be short-lived, as global demand for consumer electronics remains fragile.  “Korea and Taiwan have high leverage to tech products, and we’ve seen a lot of that come under pressure so the end demand has slowed down,” Ray Sharma-Ong, investment director at Abrdn Asia, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “We expect continued outflows post this relief rally.” Japanese equities climbed as the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials buoyed sentiment on the economy and a reading on US inflation expectations eased.  The Topix Index rose 1.1% to 1,887.42 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 1.4% to 26,871.27. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.3%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,490 rose and 568 fell, while 112 were unchanged. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.9% to close at 6,706, the benchmark’s biggest daily gain since Jan. 28, as investors in Asia assessed whether inflation is bottoming and recession can be averted. The index’s biggest gains were seen in the financial, energy and tech sectors. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index closed 1.7% higher at 10,997.92, the benchmark’s best day since March 1 Emerging-market stocks climbed to the highest in more than a week as China’s recovery from its virus-induced slump propels the Asian nation’s equities toward a bull market. Technology stocks led emerging-market equity gains, with China’s economy showing some improvement in June amid a further easing of pandemic curbs in Shanghai. Chinese shares look to be the best home for fresh money in Asia amid a tough investment environment, according to abrdn plc’s regional chairman Hugh Young. China plans to extend the yuan’s trading hours as it seeks to increase global investor participation in onshore currency trading as part of its internationalization push. In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index fell 0.2% as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Australian dollar.  AUD and CHF are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, SEK and GBP outperform. The volatility term structures for the Group-of-4 currencies focus on the upcoming central bank meetings as there is little demand for long gamma in the front-end. The euro advanced, nearing $1.06 and European bonds fell broadly, with the exeption of Greece and Sweden, as focus turns to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech. Sterling rose for a second day, supported by a rally in global stocks that is limiting demand for the dollar. Gilts extended their slide across the curve, while money markets raised BOE tightening bets as haven- buying was unwound amid equity advances. In rates, Treasuries are weaker amid a selloff in core European rates, which extended losses after EU’s sale of EU2.5b four-year bonds. US yields are cheaper by nearly 4bp at long end, steepening 2s10s by ~2.4bp, 5s30s by ~1bp on the day; 10-year is up 3.6bp at ~3.17% with bunds and gilts lagging by additional 8bp and 5bp in the sector.  As Bloomberg notes, the broad risk-asset rally puts added cheapening pressure on Treasury yields with S&P 500 futures and Estoxx50 rising led by big gains for Asia stocks. Two coupon auctions slated for Monday may also weigh: Monday’s auctions include $46b 2- year at 11:30am ET and $47b 5-year notes at 1pm. The WI 2-year yield near 3.07% (vs 2.519% last month) is above auction stops since 2007; WI 5Y near 3.22% (vs 2.736% in May) exceeds results since 2008. IG dollar issuance expectations for the week are around $15b, although remain highly dependent on market conditions. The long- end of the curve may benefit this week from anticipated month- end demand; Bloomberg Indices estimated a 0.07yr Treasury index duration extension for July 1, slightly below 12-month average. In Europe, Gilts underperform Treasuries and bunds, cheaper by about 5-6bps at the long end. In commodities, industrial metals rebounded, while oil rose. Copper steadied and most other base metals rebounded after their worst week in a year as China’s economy showed signs of recovering and Goldman Sachs said global supplies were still constrained. Oil fluctuated near $107 a barrel in New York as investors monitored developments from the gathering of Group of Seven leaders; G7 leaders met to decide on a Russian oil price cap ahead of Iranian nuclear talks and on the week of the OPEC+ meeting. French CGT unions will participate in strikes at LNG terminals and gas storage facilities this week; strike in the energy sector on June 28th. Most base metals trade in the green; LME tin rises 6.8%, outperforming peers. LME zinc lags, dropping 0.9%. Spot gold maintains gains, adding ~$13 to trade near $1,840/oz. as some G-7 nations plan to announce ban on new gold imports from Russia Looking at today's US calendar, we get the May durable goods orders, capital goods orders, pending home sales, and June Dallas Fed manufacturing index. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 3,944.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 417.68 MXAP up 1.6% to 161.83 MXAPJ up 1.8% to 538.51 Nikkei up 1.4% to 26,871.27 Topix up 1.1% to 1,887.42 Hang Seng Index up 2.4% to 22,229.52 Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,379.19 Sensex up 1.2% to 53,368.36 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.9% to 6,705.95 Kospi up 1.5% to 2,401.92 Brent Futures up 0.2% to $113.31/bbl Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,840.40 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.29% to 103.88 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.49% Euro up 0.3% to $1.0580 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg ECB policy makers gather on a Portuguese hillside on Monday with the sinking feeling that their rush to tackle the inflation shock they failed to forecast risks both a recession and echoes of the euro area’s sovereign debt crisis It was while sitting apparently alone in a London hotel basement that Christine Lagarde engineered a fix to the euro zone’s most alarming debt turmoil since the pandemic struck The ECB is pushing back its policy decisions and the timing of the subsequent press conferences by 30 minutes as of July The US, UK, Japan and Canada plan to announce a ban on new gold imports from Russia during a summit of Group of Seven leaders that’s getting underway Sunday. Prices of the precious metal climbed Monday President Joe Biden rebooted his effort to counter China’s flagship trade-and- infrastructure initiative after an earlier campaign faltered, enlisting the support of Group of Seven leaders at their summit in Germany China’s economy showed some improvement in June as Covid restrictions were gradually eased, although the recovery remains muted China plans to extend the yuan’s trading hours as it seeks to increase global investor participation in onshore currency trading as part of its internationalization push Russia defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors The world economy risks entering a new era of high inflation which central banks need to keep in check, the Bank for International Settlements said Signs of distress flashing in bond markets suggest the world’s poorest nations are set to see a wave of debt restructurings. But a growing cohort of investors say that’s a buying opportunity A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were higher across the board as the region took impetus from last Friday's firm gains on Wall St heading closer into month-end. ASX 200 enjoyed broad gains across its sectors although gold miners lagged as Evolution Mining shares dropped by more than 20% due to a cut in its FY output guidance. Nikkei 225 was lifted after the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions reiterated that they must maintain easy policy and with Tepco among the biggest gainers on tight electricity supply amid the hot weather. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the upbeat mood as Hong Kong benefitted from a rampant tech sector and with the mainland encouraged by further easing of restrictions in Shanghai and Beijing, while the PBoC also upped its liquidity efforts with a CNY 100bln injection. Top Asian News Beijing will permit schools to resume in-class teaching as soon as Monday, ending one of the last major curbs in the capital, according to Bloomberg. Shanghai is to gradually resume dining-in at restaurants from June 29th, according to an official cited by Reuters. PBoC injected CNY 100bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 90bln net injection, according to Reuters. China requested that banks make preparations for longer trading hours for the CNY, with trading in the onshore CNY potentially to extend until 03:00 local time the following day (20:00BST/15:00CDT), according to Bloomberg. BoJ Summary of Opinions from the June meeting stated the BoJ must maintain easy policy and keep a close eye out on the market and FX impact on the economy and prices. It also noted the number of goods seeing prices rise is increasing due to higher raw material costs and a weak yen but it is appropriate to keep easy policy as inflation is not driven by a positive economic cycle. Furthermore, it said maintaining ultra-easy policy is effective in sustaining a rise in wages and that a sharp fall in Yen would hurt the economy and heighten uncertainty. Japanese government issued power shortage warnings for Tuesday, for a second straight day, according to Reuters. Japan has proposed removing reference to the goal of 50% zero-emission vehicles by 2030; wants less concrete target, according to a draft cited by Reuters. BoJ's holding of JGBs has reportedly topped 50% of its total, according to Nikkei. European bourses are kicking off the week on the front-foot as global equities see tailwinds from Wall Street’s bounce on Friday. Sectors in Europe are mostly positive – but Utilities and Insurance are subdued, with the overall picture being a cyclical one. Stateside, US equity futures track sentiment higher – with the NQ the current outperformer vs the ES, YM, and RTY. Top European News ECB says as of the July meeting, the policy decisions will be released at 14:15CET and presser at 14:45CET, according to Reuters. ECB’s Pivot Toward Rate Hikes Feeds Fears of New Bond Crisis; ECB to Announce Rate Decisions 30 Minutes Later From July EU Confronts Low Gas Storage Risk in Test of Unity on Russia Gas Jumps as Europe Struggles to Fill Russian Gap UK’s Battered Economy Is Sliding Toward a Breaking Point FX Greenback continues to gravitate as risk sentiment improves, but could get a month end boost given models indicating broad rebalancing requirement - DXY pivots 104.000 within 104.120-103.790 range just shy of last week's low. Yen benefits from all round fix buying ahead of final trading day of June and Q2 on Thursday - Usd/Jpy not far from 134.50 at one stage overnight alongside declined in Yen crosses. Pound perks up as IMM spec accounts trim short positions again and Euro tests technical resistance ahead of 1.0600 vs Buck amidst firmer rebound in EGB yields - Cable probes 1.2300 at best, Eur/Usd touches 21 DMA at 1.0591. Aussie lags on Aud/Nzd headwinds, but Loonie pares losses in tandem with oil - Aud/Usd sub-0.6950, cross under 1.1000, Nzd/Usd hovering over 0.6300 and Usd/Cad back below 1.2900. Yuan underpinned by net PBoC liquidity injection and easing of Covid restrictions in China - Usd/Cnh and Usd/Cny both beneath 6.6900. Lira knee jerks higher after Turkey cuts credit to firms with more than Try 15 mn FX cash assets - Usd/Try down to 16.1040 or so before rebound towards 16.8900. Fixed Income Debt futures unwind more recovery gains with EGBs leading the way. Bunds retreat towards 146.50 vs 149.00 at one stage last Friday. Gilts closer to 113.00 than 114.00 and 10 year T-note near the base of 116-31/117-13 overnight range. US durable goods data ahead and a double dose of issuance comprising Usd 46 bn 2 year and Usd 47 bn 5 year auctions. Commodities WTI and Brent futures consolidate with modest intraday losses as G7 leaders meet to decide on a Russian oil price cap ahead of Iranian nuclear talks and on the week of the OPEC+ meeting. French CGT unions will participate in strikes at LNG terminals and gas storage facilities this week; strike in the energy sector on June 28th. Spot gold piggy-backs off the softer Dollar – with the yellow metal currently eyeing its 21 DMA (1,841.60/oz) and 200 DMA (1,845.20/oz) to the upside Base metals are largely rebounding following the recent rout – also aided by the Buck. US Event Calendar 08:30: May Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%; -Less Transportation, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4% 08:30: May Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4% 08:30: May Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8% 10:00: May Pending Home Sales YoY, prior -11.5% 10:00: May Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. -3.9%, prior -3.9% 10:30: June Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -6.5, prior -7.3 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap This morning we are launching our monthly survey which hopefully comes at an opportune time to assess what you all think about recession risk, whether the next big move in markets will be up or down, whether the BoJ will be able to hold the line on YCC, whether your market view includes the risk of Russian gas being cut off from Europe, and whether you think negative rates will be seen again in the next decade after the ECB likely moves away from it by September. There are a couple of other repeat questions to answer. It should take 2-3 minutes, is all anonymous, with answers likely Thursday morning. The link is here and all help gratefully received. A reminder that my chart book was out last week with lots of charts on one of the worst H1s in history, recession risks and lots more. See here for more. Without having a blockbuster event to look forward to this week there are plenty of things to keep us occupied in what are highly uncertain times. Perhaps the ECB's Forum on Central Banking in Sintra will be the key event to watch, with a policy panel on Wednesday which will bring together Chair Powell, President Lagarde and Governor Bailey together the likely highlight. Staying in Europe, all eyes will be on the June CPI numbers released for Germany (Wednesday), France (Thursday) and Italy and the Eurozone on Friday. Consensus expectations don’t suggest we’re yet at peak headline inflation with CPI expected to pick up a few tenths YoY this week. With commodity prices fading sharply in June the hope is that we will be near the top soon. In fact, our US economists put out an inflationary chart book last week that suggested that the peak will be in September (9.1% headline and 6.3% core). The problem is that even if headline dips because of energy, core won’t necessarily fall as quickly with wages and second round effects in full force. We had a small indicator of that last week as our economists also pointed out that the recent acceleration in US hospital workers’ wage growth from around 2.5% to almost 5% should serve to add an additional 50bps to core PCE inflation next year (link here). On Thursday, we’ll get the latest reading of the US core PCE deflator within the personal income and spending data. Core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure so this and the healthcare news is important. Staying with US data, we have a fair amount to look forward to with the all important ISM on Friday (53.2 expected vs 56.1 last month). We'll also see the Chicago PMI on Thursday and regional Fed's manufacturing indices throughout the week. Durable goods orders (today) and wholesale and retail inventories (tomorrow) will be key to assessing inventory pressures flagged by several firms in recent weeks as well as corporate behaviour amid some easing in supply-chain backlogs. How the consumer is faring under rising rates and stubborn inflation will be another key theme, with the Conference Board’s June consumer confidence index out tomorrow (99.9 expected vs 106.4 last month). Elsewhere, China's industrial data and PMIs (Thursday), as well as key economic indicators from Japan, will be in focus. Even though we at the very back end of Q2 earnings, this week will see some bellwether consumer spending companies such as Nike (Monday), H&M and General Mills (Wednesday) report. Other corporates releasing results will include Prosus (Monday), Micron and Walgreens Boots Alliance (Thursday). Overnight in Asia, equity markets are continuing last week’s rally with the Hang Seng (+2.72%) leading gains thanks to a strong performance in Chinese tech firms. The Kospi (+2.08%), Nikkei (+1.04%), Shanghai Composite (+0.89%) and CSI (+1.24%) are all also up. Outside of Asia, DM equity futures point to further gains with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.19%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.44%) and DAX (+0.79%) moving higher. Bitcoin is above $21,000 after falling to as low as $17,600 last week for the first time since December 2020, while 10yr US yields are up around +2.5bps. Earlier today, data released showed that China’s industrial profits (-6.5% y/y) contracted at a slower pace in May following a big fall of -8.5% in April as companies resumed their activity in major manufacturing hubs amid easing Covid restrictions. In other overnight news, Russia has defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt ($100 million) for the first time in more than 100 years, after the grace period for the payment deadline expired on Sunday. Recapping last week now, markets grew increasingly concerned about a recession as the week went on, thanks to weak economic data, hawkish central bank rhetoric, and the threat of a Russian gas cut-off in Europe. That led to a significant rally in sovereign bonds as investors sought out safe havens and cast doubt on whether central banks could keep hiking into a downturn. Indeed, yields on 10yr bunds came down by -21.9bps over the week as a whole (+1.0bps Friday), which is their 3rd biggest weekly decline in the last decade. Yields on 10yr Treasuries also saw a similar, albeit less marked decline, with yields down -9.6bps (+4.3bps Friday). That decline in yields came in spite of continued hawkish central bank commentary, and on Friday we saw San Francisco Fed President Daly say that a 75bps hike in July was “where I’m starting”, thus joining a growing number of officials who’ve openly backed a 75bps move again. Bear in mind if the Fed did move by 75bps in July, that would mean the hiking cycle since March would now be at 225bps, which matches the entire hiking cycle we saw in 3 years between 2015 and 2018. Nevertheless, when it came to monetary policy expectations, the growing fears of a recession led investors to take out the probability of more aggressive tightening, with the fed funds rate priced in by December’s meeting down by -16.0bps over the week (-5.0bps Friday). And looking at the entire profile of meetings ahead, futures are now expecting the peak Federal funds rate to come as soon as March 2023, before pricing in cuts after that. With investors expecting somewhat more dovish central banks, global equities rallied strongly last week as they recovered from their worst weekly performance since the pandemic began. The S&P 500 gained +6.45% on the week, and its Friday advance of +3.06% was the best daily performance for the index since May 2020. Europe’s STOXX 600 put in a weaker +2.40% advance (+2.62% Friday), but matters weren’t helped by German equities, with the DAX losing -0.06% (+1.59% Friday) as concerns grew about a potential cut-off in Russian gas. That’s sent natural gas futures in Europe to a 3-month high, with last week seeing a further +9.14% gain (-3.63% Friday). Lastly, after the poor mid-week data including the flash PMIs for June, Friday’s releases did bring some modest respite. First, the final reading of the University of Michigan’s long-term inflation expectations was revised down to 3.1% (vs. 3.3% previously). The unexpected jump in that measure before the Fed’s meeting was said to be a factor in their move to 75bps, as they’re very concerned about the prospect that longer-term inflation expectations could become unanchored, making inflation much harder to control. Furthermore, new home sales for the US in May rose to an annualised rate of 696k (vs. 590k expected), whilst the previous month also saw upward revisions. To be fair though, it wasn’t all positive on Friday, and Germany’s Ifo business climate indicator fell to 92.3 in June (vs. 92.8 expected), which marks an end to two successive monthly increases in April and May. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/27/2022 - 08:06.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 27th, 2022

Futures Rise For A Second Day As Volumes Plummet

Futures Rise For A Second Day As Volumes Plummet US stocks were set to rise for a second straight day on Wednesday with risk appetite staging a modest comeback amid dismal trading volumes as investors digested the hawkish turn from major central banks over the past week. S&P 500 futures were up 0.5% at 7:30 am ET, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.2%. The dollar reversed earlier losses, while global bonds steadied from the previous day’s selloff as some of the shock following the Bank of Japan’s unexpected increase in its yield trading band ebbed; the US 10Y yield held steady around 3.67%. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 index snapped a four-day losing streak although the Nasdaq 100 fell for a fifth day in its longest stretch of declines since October, as higher-for-longer interest rates continued to weigh on sentiment. Major US tech and internet stocks are modestly higher on Wednesday, as global bonds steadied from the previous day’s selloff. Bank stocks are also higher in thin premarket trading putting them on track to gain for a second straight day after snapping a four-day losing streak. In corporate news, Core Scientific became the latest crypto company to file for bankruptcy as the industry reckons with a plunge in digital asset prices. Here are the biggest premarket movers: Nike shares jump 13% as analysts hiked their price targets after its quarterly sales beat estimates. They said the robust update demonstrated the brand’s strength despite a tough macroeconomic backdrop. Tesla shares gain as much as 2.1% after Elon Musk confirmed that he will resign as CEO of social-media firm Twitter when a successor is found and focus on engineering teams, amid worries that the billionaire is spreading himself thin between the companies. Cathie Wood ramped up purchases of Tesla shares in the fourth quarter, despite rising concerns over Musk’s ability to manage businesses FedEx shares climb 4.2% after its second-quarter earnings beat analysts’ estimates as price increases and cost cuts offset weakening demand trends. Alphabet shares rise as much as 0.9% along with other big tech stocks, with Evercore analysts saying that, while they still see the Google parent as “highly attractive” for long-term investors, they are lowering their estimates and price target amid ongoing weakness in demand for online advertising and cloud computing. Starbucks stock declines 0.8% after it was downgraded to hold at Jefferies. The brokerage overall maintains a positive view on the US restaurant and foodservice distribution sector, but turns more selective to reflect greater chance of a recession in 2023, also downgrading Brinker and Red Robin to hold and upgrading Chefs’ Warehouse to buy. Adaptive Biotechnologies shares jump 8.2% after the disease-testing instruments maker is upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Sandler on broker’s optimism about the company’s minimal residual disease business and potential catalysts in immune medicine in 2023. Morgan Stanley analysts led by Vikram Purohit assumed coverage of Halozyme Therapeutics with a recommendation of overweight, citing attractive “defensive properties.” Dust started to settle on Japan’s shock decision to raise the upper limit of its 10-year bond yield, though the move has set in motion wagers the BOJ will join its peers next year in raising interest rates. Already, surging yields have shrunk the worldwide stock of negative-yielding debt to about $686 billion, from a $18.4 trillion peak reached two years ago. This number is likely to drop further as Japanese two-year yields rose above zero for the first time since 2015 and the 10-year benchmark approached the new upper yield limit, forcing the BOJ to step in with a bond-buying operation. Treasury yields were flat after surging 20 basis points this week. For Japanese investors, however, the latest policy move may change their calculus for the better. With the yields they can earn on domestic bonds suddenly more attractive, they may look to repatriate some of $3 trillion that Bloomberg data shows is held in foreign equities and debt. “Japanese buyers are already overweight dollar cash and other currencies. They will use it to buy yen and Japanese government bonds as domestic yields rise,” Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos told clients, predicting currency markets to see the biggest impact. In key US news, Ukraine chief comedian and president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, visits DC today and Joe Biden will unveil almost $2 billion in Ukraine aid. Zelenskiy's first trip abroad since the invasion will include a prime-time address to Congress. His plea for more advanced weapons is set to be answered with a Patriot missile battery, a significant boost in US support. Elon Musk confirmed he'll step down as CEO after he finds a successor, though he plans to retain control over the engineering teams. Musk said Twitter was on course to have negative cash flow of $3 billion before recent cost-cutting measures. It's now poised to post revenue of $3 billion, next year, he said, and should reach cash flow breakeven too.   Sam Bankman-Fried will be flown to the US from the Bahamas today to face criminal charges linked to the FTX implosion. He'll be escorted by FBI agents on a private plane, a person familiar said. His legal team is in talks with prosecutors about a possible bail deal, which could include home detention or electronic monitoring, the NYT reported. While December is traditionally a good month for stock performance, with the S&P 500 index gaining 1.2% on average over the past 30 years and declining just 14 times over the past 50 years, this December is proving to be an exception, and is set to be one of the worst final months of the year for the US benchmark since 1957, as pressure from hawkish central banks and recession risks weigh on the gauge. The S&P 500 has dropped about 6% this month — on par with the losses it sustained in December 2002; only December 2018’s 9% decline was bigger. “When we look at the equity market response to these incremental monetary policy moves, it always strains belief that we should see future repricing of equity market on the back of what are relatively small central bank moves — even the ECB move,  said Wouter Sturkenboom, Northern Trust Asset Management chief investment strategist for EMEA & APAC. “We were a little surprised the US equity market responded as strongly as it did.” Global bond yields surged this week after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased its yield trading band. The moved followed a surprisingly hawkish tone from the European Central Bank last week. With the 2Y JGB yield rising above 0%, the stock of negative yielding debt is about to drop to zero. “Even if questions remain about where the Federal Reserve will finally drive borrowing rates, a lot of the 2022 bearish leverages have been already priced-in and we expect stock markets to stabilise following this year’s sell-off,” said Pierre Veyret, technical analyst at ActivTrades. “That said, investors will need further evidence of Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s economic “soft landing” to drive equities to new highs.” European stocks followed US futures and rebounded from a six-week low with all sectors rising as low average volumes show holiday trading pattern is materializing. In Europe, retailers, real estate and energy are the strongest performing sectors. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.9%. S&P futures and Nasdaq contracts rise 0.5% each. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Tremor International shares rise as much as 11% after a Sky News report that the digital-ad company is exploring a sale and is working with Goldman Sachs bankers to solicit interest. Interparfums shares rise as much as 8% to their highest since March after the French perfume maker announced a deal to develop and market all perfume and cosmetics lines under the Lacoste brand. Philips shares rise as much as 5.5% after the Dutch maker of medical devices provided an encouraging update on tests to assess the safety of its DreamStation sleep-therapy devices. Adidas and Puma shares gain more than 9% after Nike’s robust quarterly sales update that beat expectations in all regions except for China. Avio plunges as much as 11% after the Italian space company said an anomaly occurred on the VV22 satellite-launch flight, leading to the loss of the mission. Billerud falls as much as 5.4%, extending losses into a third day, after DNB cut its recommendation to hold from buy, seeing “tailwinds turning into headwinds” with higher cost inflation and “evidence of softer prices.” Earlier in the session, Asian stocks headed for a fifth session of declines, as traders assessed adjustments to monetary policy in Japan and a jump in Covid cases in China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed after moving between a gain of 0.4% and a loss of 0.3%. While industrial and tech shares weighed on the gauge, Australian miners provided support on higher gold prices. Japanese banks gained after the Bank of Japan doubled its yield cap on Tuesday, although benchmarks fell. Moves across the region were driven by thin trading into year-end, with benchmarks in China and Hong Kong inching back from a two-day fall. In addition, a surge in Covid infections in China has affected trading desks. India stocks led losses in the region. Looking ahead, traders will keep an eye on US consumption data out Thursday. “With the recent Federal Reserve meeting bringing about an upward revision in US core PCE forecasts in 2023, the data will be looked upon to reflect the pace at which pricing pressures moderate,” Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG Asia, wrote in a note Japanese stocks fell for a fifth day after the Bank of Japan doubled its cap on 10-year yields, sparking a jump in the yen. The Topix fell 0.6% to close at 1,893.32, while the Nikkei declined 0.7% to 26,387.72. The yen retreated slightly against the dollar after surging almost 4% Tuesday. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix decline, decreasing 2%. Out of 2,163 stocks in the index, 452 rose and 1,631 fell, while 80 were unchanged.  Prospects of higher yields pushed the Topix Banks Index up 2.6%, adding to the gauge’s jump of more than 5% on Tuesday. The measure was the biggest gainer among the benchmark’s industry groups while automakers, real estate and tech extended declines. “The effects of the BOJ’s surprise move are still lingering,” said Shogo Maekawa, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “While banking and insurance stocks continue to rise, sectors like real estate that are negatively impacted by rising interest rates, and stocks exposed to the strong yen are falling.” India stocks fell to a one-month low, erasing early gains, as risk-off mood weighed on the domestic market. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 1% to 61,067.24, the lowest since Nov. 10, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by a similar measure.  Investor sentiment is worsening due to global concerns, including Bank of Japan’s surprise hawkish tilt, and rising Covid cases in China, said Jayesh Bhanushali, assistant vice president at IIFL Securities. Foreign investors have been adding fresh short positions in index futures and “there is panic in the market as global economic outlook is bleak,” he said. India’s health minister held a review meeting to look into the country’s covid situation, and has asked officials to stay alert. Of the BSE Ltd.’s 19 sectoral gauges, all but 2 fell, with an index of healthcare-related stocks rising 2.3%. Reliance Industries Ltd. contributed the most to the index’s decline, decreasing 1.4%.  In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot reversed earlier losses and gain  modestly as most Group-of-10 peers were steady against the greenback, with the exception of the pound and the New Zealand dollar. NZD and GBP are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, NOK and AUD outperform. Yen trades around 131.80 per dollar. The pound underperformed most of its G-10 peers as data released Wednesday showed UK government borrowing surged in November. The budget deficit stood at £22 billion ($26.8 billion) –- the highest monthly total in records stretching back to 1993 and almost triple the £8.1 billion reading a year ago. UK business confidence rose at the fastest rate in 20 months as labor market pressures showed signs of easing, the festive trading period exceeded expectations and businesses became more optimistic about the outlook for the economy Japan’s longer-dated benchmark bond yields extended yesterday’s surge and the 10-year yield climbed toward the central bank’s new 0.5% cap as speculation deepened that the BOJ will push forward with policy normalization. The yen steadied near the strongest level in more than four months against the dollar In rates, treasuries are slightly richer across the curve with gains led by front-end, extending steepening momentum of 2s10s, 5s30s spreads which trade through Tuesday highs. The 2-year Treasury yield shed 3bps while longer segment of the curve was steady, making the 2-10-year segment the steepest in five weeks. 10-year yields were around 3.68%, flat vs. Tuesday's close and outperforming gilts by 2.5bp — bunds trade broadly inline; front-end outperformance steepens 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 1.8bp and 2.8bp on the day with 5s30s topping through -2bp and widest since Dec. 1. Bund yields steadied after the jump in longer dated global yields yesterday following the BOJ’s surprise tweak to its yield curve control. The Italian curve bull-steepened as yields fell 6-8bps. Gilts underperformed USTs and bunds at the 10-year mark. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund narrowing 6.1bps to 210.6bps. In commodities, WTI drifts 1.1% higher to trade near $77, rising for a third session. Spot gold falls roughly $5 to trade near $1,813/oz. Iron ore rose for a second day as China’s abrupt Covid Zero reversal and a steady stream of supportive policies improved the likelihood of a recovery in the housing sector. Amyris is among the most active resources stocks in premarket trading, gaining 2%.  To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading for December, as well as November’s existing home sales and the Canadian CPI reading for November. A 20-year bond auction is scheduled for 1pm New York. Finally, we get the latest earnings from Micron Technology. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,865.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.9% to 427.80 MXAP little changed at 155.41 MXAPJ up 0.2% to 502.40 Nikkei down 0.7% to 26,387.72 Topix down 0.6% to 1,893.32 Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 19,160.49 Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,068.41 Sensex down 1.0% to 61,089.36 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.3% to 7,115.09 Kospi down 0.2% to 2,328.95 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.29% Euro little changed at $1.0626 Brent Futures up 1.1% to $80.84/bbl Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,815.26 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.98 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg In a span of 18 hours last week, years of rigid intransigence from the European Union’s two most rebellious nations started to break. First Hungary and then Poland agreed to fix their democracies’ shortcomings in exchange for gaining access to billions of euros of the bloc’s funds. If they make good on those promises, it will also be a testament to the new-found powers of the bond market The Russian exodus triggered by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has put the currencies of former Soviet republics at the top of global rankings this year. Georgia and Armenia in the Caucasus mountains, as well as Tajikistan in Central Asia, are among the best performers against the US dollar after tens of thousands of Russian citizens settled there since February, bringing the equivalent of billions of dollars in savings with them The BOJ’s shock decision to tweak its yield-curve control ceiling has boosted policy-normalization bets, fueled expectations for higher and more volatile yields and may also damp demand for US Treasuries Japan’s investors are fleeing Treasuries at an unprecedented pace, and central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s policy shift may reinforce the trend which is bringing a global era of negative yields closer to an end BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is facing mounting criticism over his latest shock policy decision, with several prominent economists calling it a blow to BOJ credibility and traders rushing to test the central bank’s new red line on bond yields The BOJ’s policy adjustments could be the first step toward an exit from its decade-long aggressive monetary easing, according to Takatoshi Ito, a contender to succeed Governor Haruhiko Kuroda China’s broad budget deficit hit a record so far this year, showing how damaging the now abandoned Covid Zero policy and the ongoing housing slump have been to the economy and to the government’s finances A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed following a mostly positive lead from Wall Street and with news flow on the quieter side. ASX 200 outperformed and was lifted by gains across gold miners after the yellow metal topped USD 1,800/oz. Nikkei 225 remained pressured by the recent JPY strengthening, whilst the region overlooked reports that Japan maintained its overall economic view in December. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gave up earlier gains but remained within tight parameters Top Asian News China reported zero new COVID deaths in the mainland on Dec 20th vs five a day earlier; reported 3,101 new COVID cases in the mainland on Dec 20th vs 2,722 a day earlier. "China will no longer take measures to isolate people from overseas and go to isolation facilities from January 3, 2023" according to HKSTV; "The policy optimized to 0+3 also means that China will fully open up from 2023 in the new year." China's Foreign Ministry says, on their plan to improve quarantine for overseas travellers, they will provide more convenience when appropriate. PBoC injected CNY 19bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.00%; injects CNY 141bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.15%; daily net injection CNY 158bln. China State Planner is holding a meeting to study measures to deal with excessive hog price decline, according to Reuters. Japanese Foreign Minister Hayashi is to delay his trip to China to late-January or later, according to TV Asahi. Japan maintained its overall economic view in December; the economy is recovering moderately, said Japan needs to pay close attention to China's COVID situation, via Reuters. Japanese Economy Minister Goto acknowledged that the BoJ's Tuesday decision was not meant to be a tweak or exit from monetary policy, according to Reuters. IMF said the BoJ's YCC tweak is "a sensible step", according to Reuters. Japanese government to set assumed interest rate at a record low of 1.1% for compilation of FY23/24 budget, according to Reuters sources. South Korean Finance Minister sees 2023 GDP growth at 1.6% (vs 2022 estimate of 2.5%) and 2023 CPI growth at 3.5% (vs 2022 estimate of 5.1%), according to Reuters. European bourses have eked out a marginal extension of their initial upside, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, with both newsflow and the schedule ahead sparse. Sectors are firmer across the board, with outperformance in Retail post-Nike and in Real Estate after recent pronounced pressure. Stateside, futures are similarly bid, ES +0.6%, with specific ex-corporate updates focused on gov't funding & Ukraine. FedEx (FDX) Q2 23 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.18 (exp. 2.80), Revenue 22.8bln (exp. 23.7bln). FY23 capex view cut by 400mln to 5.9bln. Cost reduction initiatives accelerated, identifies additional 1bln above Sept. forecast. Weak profit guidance. Nike Inc (NKE) Q3 2022 (USD): EPS 0.85 (exp. 0.65), Revenue 13.32bln (exp. 12.57bln). North America 5.83bln (exp. 5.35bln). Greater China 1.79bln (1.81bln). Executive expects FY revenue to grow in the low teens in constant currency (prev. low double-digit growth); expects around 700bps of FX headwinds. Executive says North American Black Friday and Cyber Week performance set highs for demand and traffic; in Greater China, demand grew mid-teens outpacing the sports industry. Top European News Interparfums Jumps to March Highs After Lacoste License Deal Tremor International Jumps After Sky Report It’s Exploring Sale Shell Says Exports Resume at Prelude LNG Plant in Australia Greece’s Gas Grid Eyes Links to New LNG Facilities, CEO Says Russia and Iran Are Building a Trade Route That Defies Sanctions Geopolitics Naval exercises of Russia and China with practical rocket and artillery firing will start in the East China Sea on Wednesday, according to Interfax. IAEA Chief Grossi is to visit Russia on Thursday, according to a Russian diplomat. FX DXY has managed to attain an incremental foothold at 104.00, with peers generally contained in tight ranges given the limited newsflow. However, NZD is the stand-out laggard and below 0.63 after poor domestic data. JPY has finally run out of impetus and USD/JPY has paused for breath towards the lower-end of 131.51-132.36 parameters. EUR, CHF and CAD all reside in sub 50-pip ranges at present. While GBP is marginally softer after the ONS reported the highest borrowing requirement for November on record. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9650 vs exp. 6.9644 (prev. 6.9861) Fixed Income An early recovery bounce has seemingly run out of steam ahead of US 20yr supply, with Bunds and Gilts fading from respective 136.00+ and 101.50+ peaks. Stateside, USTs are directionally in-fitting and similarly contained pre-supply, the curve is steepening slightly but with yields mixed. BoJ unscheduled operation: offered to buy JPY 100bln in 3-5yr JGBs and JPY 100bln in 5-10yr JGBs, according to Reuters. Commodities A contained session for the crude complex, with the benchmarks within sub-USD 2/bbl parameters in limited newsflow. A modest extension to fresh peaks occurred in proximity to commentary from the Russian Defence Ministry that oil tanks were destroyed in Kharvic, Ukraine. US Private Inventories (bbls): Crude -3.1mln (exp. -1.7mln), Cushing +0.84mln, Gasoline +4.5mln (exp. +2.1mln). Distillate +0.828mln (exp. +0.3mln). Indonesia is to ban the export of bauxite from June 2023; a move to encourage the development of onshore bauxite processing, according to the Indonesian President, according to Reuters. Russia decreased oil exports by 11% M/M between Dec 1-20th, according to Kommersant. India has imposed anti-dumping duty on stainless steel tubes and pipe imports from China for five years, according to a government notification. Spot gold is little changed overall but has experienced some very modest pressure as the DXY continues to scramble for a foothold at 104.00 and broader equity/crude upside advances somewhat from initial levels. US Event Calendar 07:00: Dec. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 3.2% 08:30: 3Q Current Account Balance, est. -$222b, prior -$251.1b 10:00: Dec. Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 101.0, prior 100.2 Expectations, prior 75.4 Present Situation, prior 137.4 10:00: Nov. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -5.2%, prior -5.9% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap If there's anyone still out there, hopefully your hearts will be slightly warmed by the Christmas miracle we've had at home. My 7-year-old daughter Maisie, who has been battling a very rare hip disease called Perthes for over 2 years, went for her 4-monthly scan and check up on Monday. The X-ray showed that her hip ball was now in the process of regrowing and after 14 months of being in a wheelchair, and after a major operation, is now allowed to start walking and running again. My wife was in tears as she rung me from the hospital, and I must admit I did shed at least one tear too. She is still not allowed to jump until the regrowth stage develops further but that's academic relative to the main news. We'll have to wait and see how close to normal she'll be as she goes through her childhood. The best case is probably a relatively normal life until she needs hip replacement at some point as an adult. Given I need two new knees that's not the end of the world. Despite 14 months in a wheelchair, she's so far outperforming the average of kids with this condition, and we can only think her love of swimming has helped as this is the only activity she could do. She's been going 3-4 times a week for a year now. If she hated swimming we would probably be in a far worse position now. So a lovely Christmas present for all the family. The only drawback is that arguments in the car over the last 14 months have been reduced as having accessible parking rights have allowed us to park in big easy-to-get-in spaces. Now we'll have to go back to tight spaces again and a lot of shouting at each other as opinions differ as to whether the other person is parking well or not. Just as we were driving home for Christmas, the BoJ news that Henry brought you yesterday has continued to reverberate around financial markets over the last 24 hours. The biggest move was that the Japanese Yen saw its largest daily gain of the 21st century so far against the US Dollar, with a +3.93% move higher that’s unrivalled since 1998. The yen is now trading at 132.22 per dollar, which is somewhat off its peak of 130.58 yesterday afternoon, but still a very large gain having been above 137 prior to the BoJ’s announcement. Japanese equities are also continuing to struggle, with the Nikkei underperforming other indices in Asia this morning with a -0.68% decline, whilst yields have climbed further overnight, with the 10yr Japanese government bond yield up +7.1bps to 0.48%. As a reminder, the big surprise was the change in the yield curve control policy, which has a target for the 10yr JGB yield to remain around zero. Previously, the BoJ committed to keeping that yield within a band of 0.25 percentage points either side of zero, and would conduct purchases as necessary to keep it in that range. But yesterday that band was doubled to 0.5 percentage points either side, removing the effective cap on yields that had kept them from moving above the 0.25% mark. Adrian Cox, Henry Allen and our chief Japan economist Kentaro Koyama have this morning put out the latest in our "101 series", aimed at explaining specialist topics to generalists, on the yield curve control move. See it here. The BoJ’s announcement served as the catalyst for a fresh selloff globally, with sovereign bonds slumping across the world. That’s because the BoJ’s decision has several broader implications. For instance, if it does mark the start of a move away from ultra-loose monetary policy in Japan, then that could see Japanese investors shed their foreign bond-holdings in favour of domestic ones that now attract a higher yield. Indeed, yesterday’s decision prompted growing speculation that we could see a BoJ rate hike at some point in 2023. And if the prospect of that still seems absurd, just remember it was only last December that ECB President Lagarde said “it is very unlikely that we will raise interest rates in the year 2022”, and they’ve since done 250bps worth of hikes. We’ve also seen a big reduction in the quantity of global debt with a negative yield following the BoJ’s move, with Bloomberg’s index down to $686bn yesterday, which is down from $14tn only a year ago, and a peak above $18tn in late-2020. In terms of what happens now, our chief Japan economist Kentaro is of the view (link here) that the uptrend in underlying inflation and the upcoming change of leadership at the BoJ (Governor Kuroda’s term ends early next year) mean that there’s certainly the possibility of another policy revision. A key factor will be the shunto wage talks in the spring, where a wage hike of over 3% could trigger a further move towards policy normalisation. Our main scenario at present looks for a withdrawal of YCC in Q3 2023 on the assumption of high wage growth. In the meantime, our rates strategists have written about the implications for their views (link here). Yields spiked across the globe after the move with those on 10yr Treasuries up +9.8bps to 3.68%, and this morning they’ve risen a further +2.6bps to +3.71% as we go to print. The rise in yields was most pronounced at the long-end of the curve, meaning that the 2s10s steepened +9.8bps yesterday to -57.7bps, which is the first time in over a month it’s closed above -60bps. Meanwhile in Europe, it was the 5th day running that sovereign bonds lost ground, with yields on 10yr bunds (+10.1bps), OATs (+12.1bps) and BTPs (+9.4bps) all seeing sizeable increases once again. French bonds have been a favourite of Japanese investors so that might explain the relative weakness. For equities there was a less consistent pattern, with a number of the major indices swinging between gains and losses throughout the day. By the close the S&P 500 (+0.10%) was up for the first time in the last 5 sessions. Energy (+1.52%) was the best performing industry yesterday, with Media (+0.83%) and Materials (+0.65%) also performing. The NASDAQ was marginally better than unchanged (+0.01%), breaking a 4-day slide of its own, whilst the VIX volatility index fell -1.0pt on the day to 21.5 as the entire volatility curve fell back. Meanwhile in Asia overnight, Japanese equities are underperforming as mentioned at the top, but elsewhere we’ve seen a similar pattern to the US of modest gains and losses, including for the CSI 300 (+0.05%), the Hang Seng (+0.23%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.19%) and the Kospi (-0.18%). In Europe the performance was more negative however, with the US afternoon rally coming after Europe had closed, and leaving the STOXX 600 down -0.40%. There were two major off-cycle earnings announcements after the US close with FedEx (+4.8% in after-mkt trading) beating analysts’ estimates, as price increases and cost savings counteracted declines in package volumes. The company projected lower costs, but also lower demand over the next fiscal year. At the same time, Nike (+12.8% in after-mkt trading) rose sharply as high quarterly sales and gross margins overcame another quarter of inventory buildup. While margins have been compressed by inventories, they have not been less than initially feared. As we look toward next year, the build of inventories is a key area of concerns for retailers as demand slows. Helped by those earnings, US equities futures are extending their gains with contracts on the S&P 500 up +0.47% this morning. Looking at yesterday’s data, there was a bit of respite on the inflation side, with German PPI in November falling to +28.2% year-on-year (vs. +31.1% expected), which is its lowest level since February. Over in the US, data on housing starts showed a modest decline in November to an annualised rate of 1.427m (vs. 1.4m expected), with building permits seeing a much sharper decline to an annualised 1.342m (vs. 1.48m expected). There was weakness in both single family and multi-family housing permits but excluding the pandemic period, single family permits were at their weakest levels since 2016. To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading for December, as well as November’s existing home sales and the Canadian CPI reading for November. Finally, earnings releases include Micron Technology. Tyler Durden Wed, 12/21/2022 - 08:07.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytDec 21st, 2022

Emerging Tech Reshaping Travel And Tourism In The 21st Century

In the wake of a travel frenzy, sparked by pent-up consumer travel demand and more than two years of pandemic-induced lockdowns and border restrictions, tourism and leisure are making a strong rebound as consumers take to the skies again at a soaring pace. The recent summer of travel chaos, which ensued with hordes of canceled […] In the wake of a travel frenzy, sparked by pent-up consumer travel demand and more than two years of pandemic-induced lockdowns and border restrictions, tourism and leisure are making a strong rebound as consumers take to the skies again at a soaring pace. The recent summer of travel chaos, which ensued with hordes of canceled flights, endless queues at immigration control, thousands of lost luggage pieces, rail strikes, and confusing COVID-19 entry regulations were only among the few challenges the airline and tourism industry faced amid the sudden return of travel. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   In most cases, we can almost say that the cause behind the chaos, which ended up derailing thousands of passengers' planned trips, was due to a lack of insufficient planning, available support systems, and unreliable operational undertakings. The recent few months of travel have been a test of what lies ahead, and in part, how human innovation paired with digital and technological tools can help improve outdated systems, provide foolproof real-world solutions and enhance the overall customer journey from start to finish. In a recent conversation with David B. Stewart, CEO of Guide To Europe, an online travel aggregators and bookings platform for European-based excursions, mentioned how technological reform will see travel, tourism, leisure, and hospitality enter a new era of digital evolution despite the persisting problems we’ve already encountered. “Although the travel and tourism industry has made a strong recovery, it's only a matter of time before we encounter another surge in pent-up travel demand as consumers are more eager than ever to travel. We need to look at the current issues and see how we can address them using tech-based systems. Our consumers have become increasingly tech-savvy, and we’ll need to adjust accordingly,” Stewart shares with us. Today it’s impossible to think what our lives will be like without technology. From the food we consume to the stores we shop at, and the places we visit, to the cars we drive and the fuel we use to power them - technology plays a vital and integral part in our human existence. While on the surface we’ve become accustomed to the tools we now know and enjoy so freely. Although these drive meaningful touch points throughout the journey, a deeper understanding of how technological innovations are helping to reshape and reimagine the travel and tourism industry paints a vivid picture of how much the industry still needs to adapt in the coming years. User Mobile Apps Mobile apps have surpassed their primary function of connecting users with one another, instead, it’s now helped businesses connect with their customers, and put customers in contact with the right people whenever they require additional information or assistance. Mobile apps have become a vital tool, more than we can comprehend. Booking flights, checking time schedules, sharing itineraries, planning and booking accommodation, and even finding the best restaurants to eat at can now be done through mobile apps. Apps can be personalized to fit the customer experience, and even make the entire journey, wherever this may be, easier, more convenient, and more streamlined. It’s hard to imagine what apps aren’t capable of, and we’ve already seen some big names in the travel industry take major advantage of mobile apps, from digital hotel room keys to virtual boarding passes, everything can now be encapsulated under a single dome of control. Live in-app chat and chatbots During the height of the pandemic, live communication through mobile apps and websites with the use of chatbots and virtual assistants proved to mitigate the need for human intervention to complete mundane and tedious tasks. It hasn't taken much convincing, but we now see several businesses within the travel and leisure industry utilizing chatbots and instant messaging as a way to assist customers quicker and more effortlessly. “Communication is a critical part of what we do, not just as an online bookings platform, but in terms of the experience we create for the customer from the very first moment of interaction,” Stewart says. Travel companies, in whichever capacity they function in the value chain will need to understand that they are not only selling a product or service but rather that it’s an experience that the customer is paying top dollar for. In the fast-paced era where consumers constantly want to stay connected to the outside world, chatbots will only become a bigger part of how we travel. Recently, it was found that roughly 62% of consumers would rather use a customer service bot than wait for human agents. “In travel, the rate of response is just as important as the rate of retention.” Big data is still big news There’s a shared commonality among consumers when it comes to big data and how much companies know about us, especially after several high-end corporations are being held accountable for their involvement in the harboring of consumers’ personal information and data. While we’ll never know what our data is used for, and who it’s being sold to, for travel and tourism it plays a vital role in understanding consumer demand and changing trends. Big data offers better insight into what consumers are looking for in terms of travel and tourism, and through these metrics, companies can adjust their packages and pricing accordingly. Big data provides big results, which is what travel businesses need to better understand the anticipated demand, optimize their consumer strategies, and target their marketplace through precision marketing tactics. The use of technical data will become increasingly valuable with search engines such as Google waiving Universal Analytics and introducing Google Analytics 4. The change would mean that browsers will now be able to block third-party cookies and ads, making it difficult for businesses to collect consumer-based data and analytics. And big data can now be found in every aspect of our lives, from tourism and travel to the finance sector - there’s a lot of money behind data-driven opportunities. An example of this we already see in real life is the use of big data to help build investment models that can help build economically-motivated investment themes. This ensures that those who are investing in diverse asset classes ranging from real estate, gold IRAs, stocks, or even other cryptocurrencies can now objectively evaluate securities and ensure they make fundamentally-based decisions that will drive meaningful impact towards their portfolios. Despite industries such as finance that largely depend on big data to help drive fundamental investment themes, other industries, including tourism, hospitality and leisure will become increasingly dependent on technical consumer data to follow and understand industry trends. Big data presents itself as more than a technical analysis of what consumers want, but rather it can help industries such as tourism establish better predictive models that can help promote industry growth and business transparency. Internet of Things The Internet of Things (IoT) is an interconnected system that links devices and customers with the right information and touch points at any given time. Though we already see IoT playing its part in our everyday lives, powering our smartphones, helping us browse the internet, and sharing information instantaneously, IoT will prove more valuable to minimize certain touch points without the need for a network of human interactions. Stewart believes that IoT technology and digital delivery will make it easier for consumers to find the products and services they need without requiring in-person contact. “Within Guide To Europe, we’ve been able to launch one of the world’s largest selections of vacation packages in Europe through optimized Artificial Intelligence (AI). We’ve combined local expertise and digital resources to deliver users with a much easier way to travel.” Marrying both human and non-human elements means that users can now book a  complete vacation in under a minute.IoT will enable travelers to book and plan their travels more seamlessly, as we’ve seen with Guide To Europe which has made it easier for travelers to manage their trip, documents and itinerary in one place. On top of this, IoT can now be found in hotel rooms and restaurant kitchens and retail stores. The success of IoT will only become more apparent in the near term as consumers coordinate their needs with what service providers can offer them in terms of their technological demands. Contactless applications Contactless applications such as QR Codes and contactless payment options have already experienced massive growth during the pandemic when physical activity and movement of consumers were limited. The use of contactless applications allows for ever-changing consumer demand. These applications are more reliable, safer, and quicker, and nowadays everyone with an internet connection will be able to utilize these applications to a fuller extent. Tourism already sees an increase in contactless technology being used across the field. Boarding passes are now digital, and hotel check-in can be done without visiting the front desk while ordering a cab or taxi can be completed and paid for through one application. There’s an unlimited sequence of real-world utilization, and in the growing digital world, tech-savvy consumers want solutions that are secure, convenient, and bespoke all at the same time. Guide To Europe showcases another element of digital innovation, allowing travelers to book a travel through with Google Assistant and Amazon Alexa - another contactless application that's helped reshape the travel and tourism industry. “There’s a need for digital transformation, and we believe that travelers should have more freedom and flexibility when arranging their travel plans, that’s why we enabled voice recognition capabilities, which will help travelers complete a trip to Europe within three minutes,” Stewart shares. Contactless is the future, and in a society that has recently come out of the clutches of a global pandemic, convenience and security will triumph over traditionality. Cybersecurity The rise of tech-savvy consumers and internet-based applications has led to a growing opportunity for cybercriminals to infiltrate company data and request exuberant ransoms to safely return the information. These data breaches, which have seen a 15.1% increase between 2020 and 2021, have become a major headache for businesses in the travel and tourism industry. Not only do cybercriminals impose a direct threat on the business, but also its credibility and authority among its customers and competitors. What’s more alarming, some experts suggest that in 93% of cyber attack cases, external hackers can breach and enter an organization's network perimeter, gaining access and control over their systems and data instantaneously. Across the spectrum, cybersecurity plays a vital role and importance in the overall growth and success of the tourism industry in adapting new technologies. “The threat of cybersecurity is not only prevalent in our industry, but we see growing numbers of it in several sectors, from marketing to communications, and even finances, where the brunt of cybercrime is concentrated at the moment,” tells Stewart. The sudden rise in cybercrime, without definite solutions, could be a major hurdle for the industry and consumers going forward. Consumers want to ensure their information is safe and secure, and they place a lot of importance on trusting the companies they do business with. Whether they’re booking airline tickets, shopping online or simply trading stocks - cybersecurity is a critical element throughout the digital experience. Going Forward Technology plays a vital part in how consumers are now embracing the return of travel after enduring more than two years of lockdowns. Though travel has returned, it does however raise questions over whether the tourism industry has geared itself with the right digital tools and technologies to cope with a sudden surge in demand. Theoretically, we see how existing technology has helped the industry advance itself, providing consumers with real-world solutions, and giving them more convenient access to the right set of tools and information. Now, as we steadily enter a new era of travel and technology, it will be crucial for travel, tourism, leisure, and hospitality to adapt accordingly, not only to meet consumer demand but to remain a competitive player among their competitors and help transform the entire industry regardless of where it may be heading......»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkNov 11th, 2022

Futures, Euro, Oil All Jump As Dollar Tumbles

Futures, Euro, Oil All Jump As Dollar Tumbles US equity futures, European stocks, and pretty much all risk assets rose on Friday morning as the dollar finally stumbled, dropping by the most in a month to the lowest level in Septemember, after hitting an all time high just two days earlier. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained more than 0.8% at 730am ET. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index jumped as miners rallied on optimism over Chinese demand, while banks surged following the European Central Bank’s record rate hike. That’s even as BofA said an “appalling” mood fueled a $11 billion US stock exodus in the week to Sept. 7. The yen headed for its best day in a month as Japanese officials and BOJ governor Kuroda gave the strongest hint yet at possible direct market intervention as a response to weakness in the currency. Oil and cryptos jumped. In premarket trading, DocuSign jumped 17% in premarket trading, after the e- signature company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year billings forecast. Digital Media Solutions soared 73% in premarket trading after receiving a non-binding “go private” proposal from Prism Data for $2.50/share in cash, representing ~95% premium to last close. Other notable premarket movers: Zscaler (ZS US) was up 13% in premarket trading, after the security software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong. Digital World Acquisition (DWAC US), the blank-check firm merging with Trump Media & Technology Group, rises 7.1% premarket, on course for a third day of gains. The shares have had a volatile week, falling 11% on Tuesday, amid uncertainty over a vote to extend the deadline to complete the Trump deal. Marathon Digital (MARA US) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) lead cryptocurrency-exposed stocks higher in premarket trading as Bitcoin rises the most in more than a month, breaching the closely watched $20,000 level. MARA +10%, RIOT +8%. RH (RH US) was little-changed in postmarket trading. Analysts were torn on the luxury home furnishings retailer’s results, noting that while the company beat expectations, it lowered its full-year forecast. Global stocks are on course for their first weekly advance in four, a small measure of respite from the bear-market omens circling markets due to monetary tightening, energy woes and China’s growth slowdown. “The market has been extraordinarily focused on the actions of the ECB and Fed as they try to bring inflation under control,” said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management. “Eventually this will change and the investment horizon will lengthen considerably. For now though, the market has good reasons not to. Inflation saps consumer confidence and overtightening could send the European and US economies into a recession.” Speaking at a conference, Powell said “we need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing” and added that “my colleagues and I are strongly committed to this project and will keep at it.” In contrast with the buoyant mood in equity markets Friday, Bank of America Corp. strategists flagged that investors are rushing out of US stocks as the likelihood of an economic downturn increases amid a myriad of risks. US stock funds posted outflows of $10.9 billion in the week to Sept. 7, according to EPFR Global data cited by the bank, with the biggest exodus in 11 weeks led by technology stocks. In Europe, nat gas prices eased as the region’s energy ministers gathered for a summit to draw up plans to fix an unprecedented crisis that threatens to undermine the broader economy. Expect the news to be a major letdown unless somehow Brussels figured out how to print commodities. The euro touched the highest level in three weeks after the ECB raised rates 75 basis points Thursday. Bets the Federal Reserve will hike by the same margin when it meets later this month increased after chair Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed is determined to curb price pressures. Elsewhere in Europe, stocks rallied as all sectors trade in the green. Euro Stoxx 50 climbs 1.9%. Miners, banks and autos are the strongest-performing sectors. European miners soared, significantly outperforming the Stoxx Europe 600, as iron-ore and base-metals prices rose on improving sentiment surrounding the Chinese market. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Deutsche Telekom shares gain as much as 3.1% after its unit T-Mobile US embarks on a buyback program of as much as $14b of shares, which Goldman Sachs sees as a positive catalyst for the telecom group Zealand Pharma shares rise as much as 8.7% after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with overweight rating on near-term catalysts and the biotech’s rich pipeline Synlab shares rise as much as 7% after Berenberg initiated coverage at buy, saying the shares should benefit as investors start to focus on the potential for the diagnostics firm’s core business Rubis climbs as much as 8.9%, the most intraday since March, after the French oil and gas distributor reported a jumped in 1H profit helped by growth in its Caribbean operations TI Fluid Systems shares rise as much as 7.6% after Jefferies upgraded them to buy, saying concerns on the auto parts maker’s outlook are now sufficiently priced in Gear4Music shares plummet as much as 23% after the online retailer said summer trading was hit by the cost-of-living crisis and unusually hot weather. Peel Hunt sees a challenging winter ahead Computacenter shares fall as much as 12%, with analysts saying the IT services firm missed profit estimates in 1H amid continued supply constraints and tough comparisons Immobel shares drop as much as 5.1% after KBC downgraded the real estate developer to accumulate from buy and reduced the PT to a Street-low Melrose shares drop as much as 6.1% in a second day of declines after the company said it will spin off two units. Analysts said the change in strategy raises questions. Earlier in the session, Asian equities advanced, poised to wipe out a weekly loss, as China’s consumer inflation came in lower than expected and the dollar rally showed signs of easing. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 1.7%, with a materials sub-gauge set for its best day since March --climbing almost 3% -- amid a rally in metals due to supply concerns. Stock gauges in Hong Kong led gains in the region as developer stocks climbed on speculation of more easing of home-purchase restrictions. Mainland Chinese shares had their best day in almost a month as August data showed an unexpected moderation in prices, giving the country’s central bank room to stay accommodative. Markets in South Korea and Taiwan were closed for holidays. A dollar gauge edged lower, helping to lift sentiment, as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that hardened expectations of another jumbo rate hike appeared to have been largely priced in.  Asian equities fell to a May 2020 low earlier this week as the dollar’s strength put pressure on capital flows amid rising inflation. Meanwhile, China’s continued lockdowns have weighed on supply chains and investor sentiment, and the country is stepping up defenses ahead of a key Communist Party meeting with further restrictions on internal travel. “Growth, inflation and yields have been driving the markets since the beginning of the year and there is still no consensus,” Sanford C. Bernstein strategists including Rupal Agarwal wrote in a note. A global slowdown or recession has historically worked in favor of defensive styles such as high quality, high yield and low volatility in Asia, they added. Japanese equities advanced, driven by gains in telecoms and service providers, after a rally in US peers overnight and as the yen gained against the dollar. The Topix rose 0.4% to close 1,965.53, while the Nikkei advanced 0.5% to 28,214.75. Volumes were above the 30-day averages after special quotation settlement for futures and options. The yen strengthened as much as 1.1% against the greenback in afternoon trading. Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 0.7%. Out of 2,169 shares in the index, 1,354 rose and 684 fell, while 131 were unchanged Australian stocks advanced, boosted by banks and miners. The S&P/ASX 200 index increased 0.7% to close at 6,894.20, making a weekly gain of 1%, as banks and mining shares rose. Mineral Resources led lithium shares higher after responding to a media report that the company is considering a spinoff of its lithium mining and processing operations arm, as well as a possible US listing. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.7% to 11,757.77. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to its lowest level this month as the greenback weakened against all of its G10 peers, while the pound, euro, yen and yuan all rallied against the greenback. Risk-sensitive currencies advanced most, led by Norway’s krone which rose by as much as 2%. The euro rallied by as much as 1.1% to trade around $1.01 for the first time since mid-August. Italian bonds tumbled, snapping the BTP-bund spread wider as money markets cranked up ECB hike bets after Bloomberg reported policy makers are prepared to tighten another 75bps next month, according to people familiar with the debate. The yen rebounded as traders mulled comments from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on the currency’s decline amid a broad dollar selloff. The dollar-yen pair fell 1.3% to around the 142.20 level, after climbing for four straight sessions. Kuroda held a meeting with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in a sign of the nation’s heightened alert levels. The Australian dollar surged the most in a month as the greenback weakens and a rally in equities boosts risk-sensitive currencies In rates, US Treasuries trimmed their retreat, with the policy-sensitive two-year yield still near the highest since 2007. Treasury futures push higher over early US session as S&P 500 futures advance, taking yields richer by up to 7bp across intermediates which lead the rally. The Advance followed wider bull-flattening move seen across UK curve as gilts pare a portion of Thursday’s losses.  10-year TSY yields were around 3.26%, richer by 6bp on the day although lagging gilts where yields drop as much as 9bp out to 10s; in Treasuries, intermediate-led gains richen 2s7s30s fly by 5bp. Bunds 10-year yield is down 1.5bps to 1.73%. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund adding 2.2bps to 227.3bps. Oil futures traded at session high, jumping 1.5% to below $85; gold jumped ~$18 to $1,727. Most base metals trade in the green; LME nickel rises 4.4%, outperforming peers. Bitcoin extended gains, rising 6.7% just shy of the $20,000-level, rising the most in more than a month. Looking to To the day ahead now, and EU energy ministers will be meeting in Brussels to discuss emergency measures to deal with high energy prices. Otherwise, data releases include French industrial production for July and Canada’s employment report for August. Finally, central bank speakers includes ECB President Lagarde, and the Fed’s Evans, Waller and George. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 4,035.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.4% to 419.91 MXAP up 1.6% to 154.48 MXAPJ up 1.6% to 506.33 Nikkei up 0.5% to 28,214.75 Topix up 0.4% to 1,965.53 Hang Seng Index up 2.7% to 19,362.25 Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,262.05 Sensex up 0.2% to 59,834.09 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 6,894.18 Kospi up 0.3% to 2,384.28 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.75% Euro up 1.0% to $1.0100 Gold spot up 1.2% to $1,728.41 U.S. Dollar Index down 1.12% to 108.47 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The EU is throwing together a series of radical plans to tame runaway energy prices and keep the lights on across the continent, but governments across the region are going to need to find common ground and fast The ECB will continue raising interest rates until it reaches its inflation goal, according to Governing Council Member Klaas Knot. Governing Council Member Bostjan Vasle said the ECB will continue the strong normalization of monetary policy with more interest-rate hikes, while Peter Kazimir said euro-zone inflation is “unacceptably high” and sees more hikes in the near future to get inflation under control. Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the ECB must be “orderly and determined” with rate increases after hiking by a record 75 basis points Japanese officials sound increasingly alarmed over the yen’s weakness, and while intervention is not imminent, the market takes notice. The pair’s volatility skew turns bearish the dollar this week at the front-end yet topside trades better bid further out; this suggests that traders see risk of a yen rebound, but unilateral intervention won’t have a lasting effect as long as monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the BOJ remains in place A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks followed suit to the gains on Wall St although the upside was capped after recent global central bank activity including a 75bps rate hike by the ECB and Fed Chair Powell's hawkish reiterations. ASX 200 was led by the mining-related sectors although advances were limited by weakness in defensives. Nikkei 225 extended on gains above the 28k level but with upside capped amid currency-related jawboning. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were also lifted with property and tech stocks spearheading the outperformance in Hong Kong owing to supportive policy-related headlines, while the mainland was somewhat contained in comparison after softer-than-expected inflation data from China and ahead of the long weekend with markets shut on Monday for the Mid-Autumn Festival. Top Asian News US is considering an order to screen US investment in tech in China and elsewhere, according to WSJ. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said President Biden continues to consider tariff relief on Chinese imports and wants to make sure the decision is good for Americans, while she added that it is important to take a tough stance on China due to its economic practices and national security threat, according to Reuters. US reportedly relaxed Huawei curbs to counter China's push on tech standards with the Commerce Department issuing a new rule to permit sharing of certain 'low-level' technologies and software, according to SCMP. BoJ Governor Kuroda said he met with PM Kishida to explain domestic and overseas economic developments and markets, but noted there was no specific request from PM Kishida on the economy or markets. Kuroda said hediscussed FX moves with Kishida and noted that rapid FX moves are undesirable and heighten uncertainty, as well as make it difficult for companies to do business, according to Reuters. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they are to tap JPY 3.5tln in budget reserves to speedily deliver measures against the negative impact of price hikes, while he added that sharp FX moves are undesirable and won't rule out any options on FX, according to Reuters. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said he is concerned about abrupt FX moves and noted that speculation is a factor behind recent moves, while he added that the strong USD is affecting other currencies, not just the JPY, according to Reuters. Matsuno said watching FX carefully, ready to take necessary steps if current FX moves continue, without ruling out options; recent JPY moves show excessive volatility European bourses trade firmer across the board following constructive leads from APAC and Wall Street, with the softer-than-expected Chinese inflation data overnight also lifting spirits. European sectors are in the green but portray a clear anti-defensive bias – Utilities, Healthcare, Food & Beverages, Media, and Personal Care reside at the bottom of the bunch. Stateside, US equity futures are also higher across the board, with the tech-laden NQ leading the charge Top European News ECB's Kazimir said discussion on what levels of rate the ECB aims to reach is premature; priority is to continue fiercely with normalisation of monetary policy, via Reuters. ECB's Knot said ECB has sent a forceful signal with rate rise; sees big risks of second-round effects, via Bloomberg. ECB's Villeroy said half of the current inflation is not linked to energy or agricultural prices; says inflation should be brought back to around 2% by 2024; earlier we act the easier it is to achieve results, via Reuters. Villeroy added that neutral can be estimated in the Euro Area at below or close to 2% according to him, should not speculate on the size of the next rate move - "we did not create a jumbo habit". ECB is said to be ramping up scrutiny of banks' readiness for a gas halt by Russia, according to Bloomberg sources. FX DXY suffers from a large fall amid risk appetite, ECB sources yesterday and Japanese verbal intervention, with the index back around 108.50 from a 109.54 peak. The EUR is probing 1.0100 from a sub-0.9900 midweek trough and pulling away from decent option expiry interest below. The AUD stands as the outperformer amid renewed risk appetite and the revival of base metals. Fixed Income UK Gilts have rebounded to extend well beyond prior session peaks to almost 106.00 Bunds are back around par within extended 143.82-142.46 extremes US Treasuries are near the top of a 116-07+/115-22 range. Commodities WTI and Brent front-month futures have been climbing since the start of the APAC session as a function of the declining Dollar and overall risk appetite in the market. Spot gold is firmer as the DXY losses further ground, with the yellow metal topping yesterday’s high as it eyes its 50 DMA at USD 1,744.12/oz. Base metals are bolstered by the softer Chinese inflation metrics – which also lowers the chances of further state intervention. Indian food secretary said rice production could drop due to droughts; output could drop by 7-8mln tonnes, via Reuters Black Sea grain deal is being fulfilled badly, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, its extension will depend on implementation, via Ria. US Event Calendar 10:00: July Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 1.8% 10:00: July Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8% 12:00: 2Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior -$544b Central Banks 10:00: Fed’s Evans Discusses Careers in Economics 12:00: Fed’s Waller Discusses Economic Outlook 12:00: Fed’s George Discusses the Economic Outlook DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Markets struggled for direction yesterday as it dawned on investors that central banks still aren’t ready to slow down their rate hikes just yet. First, we had the ECB who hiked by 75bps for the first time in their history and signalled that further hikes were still to come. Then we had a Bloomberg report suggesting that ECB officials were prepared to move by the same amount again in October. And finally in the US, Fed Chair Powell delivered remarks that cemented expectations that the Fed are set to hike by 75bps for a third consecutive meeting this month. That combination of hawkish developments meant that sovereign bonds struggled on both sides of the Atlantic, with a fresh surge in real yields that left the 5yr real Treasury yield at a post-2019 high of 0.95%. Looking at the ECB decision in more detail, the Governing Council decided to take their main rates up by 75bps as expected by the consensus, leaving the deposit rate at 0.75% and the main refinancing rate at 1.25%. A number of details also tilted in a hawkish direction, including their statement that they expected “to raise interest rates further to dampen demand and guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations.” We even got some detail from Lagarde on what they meant when they said there’d be “several” future hikes, which was that it meant “probably more than two, including this one, but it’s also probably also going to be less than five.” Furthermore, they upgraded their inflation forecasts yet again, now seeing 2023 inflation +5.5% (vs. +3.5% in June), and 2024 inflation at +2.3% (vs. +2.1% in June), so still above their +2.0% target even in a couple of years. They also significantly downgraded growth in 2023, now expecting +0.9% (vs. +2.1% in June), and said that they expected the economy “to stagnate later in the year and in the first quarter of 2023.” Here at DB, our own European economists have now shifted their view for the next meting in October, and now expect another 75bps hike. They write that the guidance from President Lagarde that rates are “far away” from appropriate levels for getting inflation back to target underscores the ECB’s insensitivity to the growth headwinds and their focus on bringing inflation down. They maintain their 2.5% terminal rate forecast for the deposit rate, but the timing for that has moved forward to March 2023, with that 75bp hike in October being followed by a 50bp move in December, and then 25bp moves in February and March. You can see their full reaction note here. European sovereign bonds sold off following the decision, with yields on 10yr bunds (+13.8bps), OATs (+11.0bps) and BTPs (+10.8bps) all moving higher. That also followed an announcement that they were temporarily removing the 0% interest rate ceiling on the remuneration of government deposits, which they said would “prevent an abrupt outflow of deposits into the market”. Instead, the ceiling will be at the lower of either the Eurosystem’s deposit facility rate or the euro short-term rate, with the measure intended to remain in effect until 30 April 2023. Later, we then heard in a Bloomberg article that ECB officials were prepared to move by 75bps again in October, with the report further saying that Chief Economist Lane’s presentation “struck a much more hawkish tone than his latest speech”. All in all, investors took away a very hawkish message, with the rate priced in by the December meeting rising +21.2bps on the day to its highest level to date. Today, attention will remain on Europe since we have the much-awaited meeting of EU energy ministers in Brussels. They’ll be discussing emergency measures to help with high energy prices, and we’re expecting a press conference at 14:30 Brussels time. We’ll have to see what happens, but the tone among policymakers has remained incredibly downbeat, with Belgian Prime Minister De Croo warning that “A few weeks like this and the European economy will just go into a full stop”. In the meantime, natural gas futures recovered +3.40% yesterday, which still leaves them at €221 per megawatt-hour, or more than quadruple their levels from a year ago. For those after more info on the situation, our research colleagues in Frankfurt published their latest gas supply monitor yesterday as well, where they update their scenarios for how fast German gas storages will be depleted, assuming zero gas flows from Russia to Germany. Their model shows that even with a 20% year-on-year reduction in total gas consumption, that would largely deplete the country’s gas storage by the end of the heating season. They also preview what to expect from today’s meeting (link here). Otherwise yesterday, there were mounting expectations that the Fed would hike by 75bps again at their meeting on September 21, which would mark the third consecutive hike of that magnitude. That followed a further set of remarks from Fed Chair Powell, in which he stuck to his resolute tone on beating inflation, saying that “We need to act now, forthrightly, strong as we have been doing”. The FOMC are entering their blackout period tomorrow, so today is the last day ahead of the meeting we’ll hear from any of them, but Chicago Fed President Evans also said that they “could very well do 75 in September”. Fed funds futures responded accordingly, with +71.6bps worth of hikes now priced in for that meeting, and the rate priced in for December went up +4.3bps to 3.82%, which is the most hawkish market pricing to date. The effects of the Fed’s hikes are being increasingly seen in the real economy, and yesterday we got data from Freddie Mac showing that the average 30-year mortgage rate hit a post-2008 high of 5.89%. However, there was a further round of decent data on the labour market, as the weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending September 3 fell to 2322k (vs. 235k expected). That’s their 4th consecutive weekly fall and brings them to their lowest level since May, so it’s becoming harder and harder to dismiss the better-than-expected data as just a blip. There have been some other tailwinds recently too, and daily data from the American Automobile Association is now showing that gasoline prices are down by just over a quarter from their peak in June, having fallen from $5.02/gallon back then to $3.75/gallon on Wednesday. When it came to Treasuries, the hawkish rhetoric and more robust economic data helped yields rise further yesterday, with the 10yr yield up +5.4bps to 3.32%, although there’s been a partial pullback in Asia this morning, with yields down -2.3bps. The rise was driven by higher real yields, with those at shorter maturities hitting their highest levels since before the Covid-19 pandemic. For equities however, the day was marked by significant swings between gains and losses, before the S&P 500 eventually ended the day up +0.66%. It was a similar story in Europe too, where the STOXX 600 eventually ended the day up +0.50%. Looking forward, US stock futures are pointing to further gains today and contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.38%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.59%) have both risen. Here in the UK, Prime Minister Truss outlined the government’s plan on consumer energy bills, with a new Energy Price Guarantee that will mean a typical UK household only pays up to an average of £2,500 a year on energy. This applies to all households, and once you take into account the existing £400 discount this winter, it means that average costs over the coming year will be roughly around where the current energy price cap stands, rather than going up to a new cap of £3,549 as had been previously planned. Against that backdrop, we also saw 10yr gilt yields (+11.3bps) rise to a new post-2011 high yesterday, although yesterday’s move was broadly in line with what we saw elsewhere in Europe following the ECB decision. Overnight in Asia, equities are advancing this morning as they follow up the rise on Wall Street yesterday. The Hang Seng (+2.24%) is leading gains followed by the CSI (+1.26%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.84%) and the Nikkei (+0.55%). Elsewhere, markets in South Korea are closed for a holiday. Risk appetite was supported by Chinese inflation data that showed a slowing in the rate of both consumer and producer price growth, which offers the authorities more space to support the economy without sparking further inflation. Consumer prices were up by +2.5% in August (vs. +2.8% expected), while producer prices were up +2.3% (vs. +3.2% expected), and both readings were down on the previous month. Finally, the Japanese Yen has strengthened for the first time this week after BoJ Governor Kuroda commented that “The rapid weakening of the yen is undesirable”, gaining +0.94% against the US Dollar. To the day ahead now, and EU energy ministers will be meeting in Brussels to discuss emergency measures to deal with high energy prices. Otherwise, data releases include French industrial production for July and Canada’s employment report for August. Finally, central bank speakers includes ECB President Lagarde, and the Fed’s Evans, Waller and George. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/09/2022 - 07:56.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 9th, 2022

Black Monday: All Hell Breaks Loose As Stocks Plunge Into Bear Market, Curve Inverts, Cryptos Crater

Black Monday: All Hell Breaks Loose As Stocks Plunge Into Bear Market, Curve Inverts, Cryptos Crater For all those claiming that stocks had priced in 3 (or more) 50bps (or more) rate hikes, we have some bad news. All hell is breaking loose on Monday, with futures tumbling (again) into bear market territory, sliding below the 20% technical cutoff from January's all time high of 3,856 and tumbling as low as 3,798.25 - taking out the May 10 intraday low of 3,810 - before reversing some modest gains. S&P 500 futures sank 2.5% and Nasdaq 100 contracts slid 3.1%, in a session that has seen virtually everything crash. Dow futures were down 567 points at of 730am ET. The global selloff - which has dragged Asian and European markets to multi-month lows and which was sparked by a hotter than expected US CPI print which heaped pressure on the Federal Reserve to step up monetary tightening - accelerated on Monday as panicking traders now bet the Fed will raise rates by 175 bps by its September decision, implying two 50-bp moves and one hike of 75 bps, with Barclays and now Jefferies predicting such a move may even come this week. If that comes to pass it would be the first time since 1994 the Fed resorted to such a draconian measure. The selling in stocks was matched only by the puke in Treasuries, as yields on 10-year US Treasuries reached 3.24%, the highest since October 2018, yet where 2Y yields sold off more, sending the 2s10s curve to invert again... ... for the second time ahead of the coming recession, an unprecedented event. The US yield curve appears destined to invert again in coming weeks after Wednesday’s CPI data: BBG We'll get two concurrent recessions — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 12, 2022 Meanwhile, the selloff in European government bonds also gathered pace, with the yield on German’s two-year government debt rising above 1% for the first time in more than a decade and Italian yields exploding and nearing 4%, ensuring that another European sovereign debt crisis is just a matter of time (recall that all Italian net bond issuance in the past decade has been monetized by the ECB... well that is ending as the ECB pivots away from QE and NIRP). The exodus from stocks and bonds is gaining momentum on fears that central banks’ battle against inflation will end up killing economic growth. Inversions along the Treasury yield curve point to fears that the Fed won’t be able to stave off a hard landing. “The Fed will not be able to pause tightening let alone start easing,” said James Athey, investment director at abrdn. “If all global central banks deliver what’s priced there are going to be some significant negative shocks to economies.” Going back to the US market, big tech stocks slumped in US premarket trading as bets that the Federal Reserve hikes rates more aggressively sent bond yields higher, and Nasdaq futures dropped. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks cratered as Bitcoin continued its recent decline to hit an 18- month low, precipitated by news that crypto lender Celsius had halted withdrawals... ... which sent Ethereum to the most oversold level in 4 years. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Apple shares (AAPL US) -3.1%, Amazon (AMZN US) -3.4%, Microsoft (MSFT US) -2.8%, Alphabet (GOOGL US) -3.7%, Netflix -3.8% (NFLX US), Nvidia (NVDA US) -4.5% Tesla (TSLA US) shares dropped as much as 3.1% in US premarket trading amid losses across big tech stocks, while the electric-vehicle maker also filed to split shares 3-for-1 late Friday. MicroStrategy (MSTR US) -18.4%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) -15%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) -14%, Coinbase (COIN US) -12.5%, Bit Digital (BTBT US) -10%, Silvergate Capital (SI US) -11%, Ebang (EBON US) -4% Bluebird Bio (BLUE US) shares surge as much as 86% in US premarket trading and are set to trim year-to- date losses after the biotech firm’s two gene therapies won backing from an FDA advisory panel. Chinese education stocks New Oriental Education (EDU US) and Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US) jump 8.3% and 3.4% respectively in US premarket trading after peer Koolearn’s endeavors into livestreaming e-commerce went viral and sent its shares up 95% in two sessions. Astra Space (ASTR US) shares slump as much as 25% in US premarket trading, after the spacetech firm’s TROPICS-1 mission saw a disappointing launch at the weekend. Invesco (IVZ US) and T. Rowe (TROW US) shares may be in focus today as BMO downgrades its rating on the two companies in a note saying it favors alternative asset managers over traditional players as a way to hedge beta risk against the current macro backdrop. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 also extended declines to a three-month low, plunging mover than 2%, with over 90% of members declining, as meeting-dated OIS rates price in 125bps of tightening, one 25bps move and two 50bps hikes by October.  Tech leads the declines as bond yields rise, with cyclical sectors such as autos and consumer products also lagging as recession risks rise.  The Stoxx 600 Tech Index falls as much as 4.3% to its lowest since November 2020. Chip stocks bear the brunt of the selloff: ASML -3%, Infineon -4.2%, STMicro -3.6%, ASM International -2.9%, BE Semi -2.8%, AMS -5.3% as of 9:36am CET. As if inflation fears weren't enough, French banks tumbled after a first round of legislative elections showed that President Emmanuel Macron could lose his outright majority in parliament. Here is a look at the biggest movers: Atos shares decline as much as 12%; Oddo says the company’s reported decision to retain and restructure its legacy IT services business in a separate legal entity is bad news for the company. Getinge falls as much as 7.6% after Kepler Cheuvreux cut its recommendation to hold from buy, cautioning that headwinds and supply chain challenges may intensify as Covid-related tailwinds abate. Elior plunges as much as 15% amid renewed worries over inflation and rising interest rates impacting a caterer that’s still looking for a new CEO following the unexpected departure of the previous one. Valneva falls as much as 27% in Paris after saying its effort to salvage an agreement to sell Covid-19 shots to the European Union looks likely to fail. Subsea 7 drops as much as 13% after the offshore technology company lowered its 2022 guidance, with analysts noting execution challenges on some of its offshore wind projects. French banks decline after a first round of legislative elections showed that President Emmanuel Macron could lose his outright majority in parliament. Societe Generale shares fall as much as 4.5%, BNP Paribas -4.2% Euromoney rises as much as 4.4% after UBS raises the stock to buy from neutral, saying the financial publishing and events firm’s “ambitious” growth targets for 2025 are broadly achievable. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also declined across the board following the hot US CPI data and amid fresh COVID concerns in China. Nikkei 225 fell below the 27k level with sentiment not helped by a deterioration in BSI All Industry data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood with heavy losses among tech stocks owing to the higher yield environment and with mainland bourses constrained after the latest COVID outbreak and containment measures. The Emerging-market stocks index dropped about 3%, falling for a third day in the steepest intraday drop since March, as a fresh high in US inflation sparked concerns that the Fed may need to be more aggressive with rate hikes. In FX, the Bloomberg dollar rose a fourth day as the dollar outperformed all its Group of 10 peers apart from the yen, which earlier weakened to a 24-year low with NOK and AUD the worst G-10 performers. In EMs, currencies were led lower by the South Korean won and the South African rand as the index fell for a fifth day, the longest streak since April.  The onshore yuan dropped to a two-week low as a jump in US inflation boosted the dollar and China moved to re-impose Covid restrictions in key cities. India’s rupee dropped to a new record low amid a selloff in equities spurred by continuous exodus of foreign investors. The euro fell for a third day, touching an almost one-month low of 1.0456. Sterling fell after weaker-than-expected UK GDP highlighted the risks to the economy, with a global risk-off mood adding pressure on the currency, UK GDP fell 0.3% from March. The yen erased earlier losses after earlier falling to a 24-year low while Japanese bonds tumbled, prompting a warning from the Bank of Japan as its easy monetary policy increasingly feels the strain of rising interest rates globally. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said a recent abrupt weakening of the yen is bad for the economy and pledged to closely work with the government hours after the yen hit the lowest level since 1998. Bitcoin is hampered amid broad-based losses in the crypto space with the likes of Celsius pausing withdrawals/transfers due to the "extreme market conditions". Currently, Bitcoin is at the bottom-end of a USD 23.7-27.9 range for the session. In rates, the US two-year yield exceeded the 10-year for the first time since early April, an unprecedented re-inversion. The 2-year Treasury yield touched the highest level since 2007 and the 10-year yield the highest since 2018. Treasuries continued to sell off in Asia and early European sessions, leaving 2-year yields cheaper by 15bp on the day into the US day as investors continue to digest Friday’s inflation data. Into the weakness a flurry of block trades in futures added to soaring yields. Three-month dollar Libor jumps 8.4bps. US yields remain close to cheapest levels of the day into early US session, higher by 13bp to 6bp across the curve: 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by 5bp and 5.5bp on the day -- 5s30s dropped as low as -16.6bp (flattest since 2000) while 2s10s bottomed at -2bp. US 10-year yields around 3.235%, remain cheaper by 8bp on the day and lagging bunds, gilts by 2.5bp and 5bp in the sector. Fed-dated OIS now pricing in one 75bp move over the next three policy meetings with 175bp combined hikes priced by September, while 55bp -- or 20% chance of a 75bp move is priced into Wednesday’s meeting. A selloff of European government bonds gathered pace as traders priced in a more aggressive pace of tightening from the ECB, with traders now wagering on two half-point hikes by October. The Bank of Japan announced it would conduct an additional bond-buying operation, offering to purchase 500b yen in 5- to 10-year government bonds Tuesday after 10-year yields rose above the upper limit of its policy band. In commodities, oil and iron ore paced declines among growth-sensitive commodities; crude futures traded off worst levels. WTI remains ~1% lower near 119.30. Spot gold gives back half of Friday’s gains to trade near $1,855/oz. Base metals are in the red with LME tin lagging While it's a busy week ahead, with the FOMC meeting on deck where the Fed is set to hike 50bps, or maybe 75bps and even 100bps, there is nothing on Monday's calendar. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard will discuss the Community Reinvestment Act in a pre-recorded video and an audience Q&A; she is not expected to discuss monetary policy given the FOMC blackout period. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 2.4% to 3,803.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 2.0% to 414.12 MXAP down 2.7% to 161.61 MXAPJ down 2.8% to 534.45 Nikkei down 3.0% to 26,987.44 Topix down 2.2% to 1,901.06 Hang Seng Index down 3.4% to 21,067.58 Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 3,255.55 Sensex down 3.2% to 52,585.17 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.3% to 6,931.98 Kospi down 3.5% to 2,504.51 Brent Futures down 1.9% to $119.71/bbl Gold spot down 0.8% to $1,857.56 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.39% to 104.55 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.54% Euro down 0.3% to $1.0484 Brent Futures down 1.9% to $119.69/bbl Top Overnight News “Sell everything but the dollar” is resounding across trading desks as investors reprice the risk that the Federal Reserve hikes rates more aggressively than previously thought Investors rushed to price in more aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes Monday as the US inflation shock continued to reverberate, sending two-year Treasury yields to a 15-year high and strengthening the dollar UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson risks reopening divisions that tore his Conservative Party apart in 2019, with his government set to propose a law that would let UK ministers override parts of the Brexit deal he signed with the European Union Crypto lender Celsius Network Ltd. paused withdrawals, swaps and transfers on its platform, fueling a broad cryptocurrency selloff and prompting a competitor to announce a potential bid for its assets French President Emmanuel Macron has a week to convince voters to give him an outright majority in parliament to ease the way for the controversial social and economic reforms he promised. Shares in France fell on the results A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks declined across the board following the hot US CPI data which rose to a 40-year high and amid fresh COVID concerns in China. Nikkei 225 fell below the 27k level with sentiment not helped by a deterioration in BSI All Industry data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood with heavy losses among tech stocks owing to the higher yield environment and with mainland bourses constrained after the latest COVID outbreak and containment measures. Top Asian News Beijing government said the scale of Beijing’s latest outbreak linked to bars is ferocious and explosive in nature after the city reported 166 cases in a bar cluster and with 6,158 people determined as close contacts linked to the bar cluster, while Beijing announced to halt offline sports events from today and the district of Chaoyang is to launch mass COVID testing on June 13th-15th, according to Reuters. Shanghai re-imposed a ban on dine-in restaurant services in most districts and punished officials for a management lapse at a quarantine hotel, according to Business Times. At least three Chinese cities of Beijing, Nanjing and Wuhan are trialling a shorter quarantine period of 7+7 days for international arrivals at entry points, according to Global Times. Beijing government spokesperson says that the Beijing COVID-19 bar outbreak still presents risks to the community; Beijing City reports 45 new local cases of 3pm, according to a health official, via Reuters, adding that the COVID-19 bar outbreak is still developing and epidemic control is at a critical juncture. Chinese Defence Minister Wei said China firmly rejects accusations and threats by the US against China, while he added the US Indo-Pacific strategy will create confrontation and that Taiwan is first and foremost China’s Taiwan. Wei also said those that pursue Taiwan's independence will come to no good end and that China will fight to the end if anyone attempts to secede Taiwan from China, according to Reuters. Furthermore, Wei reiterated that Beijing views the annexation of Taiwan as a historic mission that must be achieved which its military would be willing to fight for but added that peaceful unification remained the biggest hope of the Chinese people and they are willing to make the biggest effort to achieve it, according to FT. China urges local governments to raise revenue and sell assets to resolve debt risks, via Reuters. Urges local govt's to lower the debt burden; adding, they will crackdown on illegal debt raising. Japanese Defence Minister Kishi met with his Chinese counterpart in Singapore and said Japan and China agreed to promote defence dialogue and exchanges, while Japan warned China against attempting to alter the status quo in the South and East China sea, according to Reuters. Australian and Chinese defence ministers met in Singapore on Sunday for the first time in three years at the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue summit with the talks described as an important first step following a period of strained ties, according to AFP News Agency. European bourses are hampered across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -2.5%, in a continuation of the fallout from Friday's US CPI and amid fresh COVID concerns in China. US futures are in-fitting with this price action, ES -2.4% (sub-3800 at worst), ahead of the FOMC where the likes of Barclays now look for a 75bp hike after the May inflation release. Sectors in Europe are all in the red and feature Travel & Leisure as the underperformer given further cancellations going into the summer period. Top European News UK Northern Ireland Secretary Lewis said the government will publish legislation on the Northern Ireland Protocol on Monday and that the bill will rectify the issues in the protocol, according to Reuters. Reports suggest that the new law could see European judges blocked from having the final say on Northern Ireland-related disputes, according to the Telegraph. UK Tory MPs accused PM Johnson of ‘damaging the UK and everything the Conservatives stand for’ as he plans to release legislation on Monday to tear up the Northern Ireland protocol, according to FT. UK government ministers are drawing up plans to cut the link between gas and electricity to help reduce household bills for millions of families, according to The Times. UK Foreign Minister Truss says she has spoken to EU VP Sefcovic about the Nothern Ireland protocol and the preference is for a negotiated solution; adding, the EU needs to be willing to change the protocol. French President Macron’s majority in parliament is at risk as an IFOP initial estimate showed that Macron’s centrist camp is seen qualified for winning 275-310 out of 577 seats after the first round of the French lower house elections, while the IPSOS initial estimate shows the centrist camp is qualified for winning 255-295 seats, according to Reuters. Note, 289 seats are required for a majority FX Greenback extends US inflation data gains as near term Fed hike expectations crank up; DXY hits 104.750 to eclipse May 16 high and expose 105.010 YTD peak. Pound undermined by negative UK GDP and output prints plus NI protocol jitters, Cable perilously close to 1.2200 and EUR/GBP tops 0.8575. Aussie hit by heightened Chinese Covid concerns and demand implication for commodities, Kiwi feeling contagion and Loonie lurching as oil prices retreat; AUD/USD sub-0.7000, NZD/USD near 0.6300 and USD/CAD just shy of 1.2850. Euro and Franc make way for outperforming Buck, but Yen claws back losses on risk dynamics allied to technical retracement; EUR/USD under 1.0500, USD/CHF above 0.9900 and USD/JPY below 134.50 vs 135.20 apex overnight. Yuan falls as Beijing suffers ferocious and explosive virus outbreak and Shanghai reimposes restrictions in most districts, USD/CNH pivots 6.7500 and USD/CNY straddles 6.7350. Commodities WTI & Brent are hampered amid the broader market pressure; though, did experience a fleeting move off lows during a break in the newsflow. Currently, the benchmarks are lower by circa. USD 2.00/bbl given Friday's CPI, China COVID, geopolitics around US-China-Taiwan and Iran-IAEA developments (or lack of) following last week's camera removal. Iraq set July Basrah medium crude OSP to Asia at a premium of USD 3.30/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average and set OSP to Europe at a discount of USD 7.60/bbl vs dated Brent, while it set OSP to North and South America at a discount of USD 1.70/bbl vs ASCI, according to Reuters citing Iraq’s SOMO. Libya’s Minister of Oil and Gas Aoun said Libya is currently losing more than 1.1mln bpd of oil production and that most oil fields are closed except for the Hamada field and the Mellitah complex, while the Al-Wafa field continues operations from time to time, according to The Libya Observer. QatarEnegy signed an agreement with TotalEnergies (TTE FP) for the North Field East expansion project, while it will announce subsequent signings with partners in the gas field expansion in the near future and possibly at the end of next week, according to Reuters. Norwegian Oil and Gas Association reached an agreement in principle with three unions of offshore workers to avert a strike although two of the unions will ask members before signing a deal, according to Reuters. Spot gold is pressured by circa. USD 15/oz amid a stronger USD and pronounced yield action; however, the yellow metal is yet to drop below USD 1850/oz and the 10-, 21- & 200-DMAs at USD 1852, 1847 & 1842 respectively. Fixed Income Bond bears still in control and pushing futures down to fresh troughs, at 145.85 for Bunds, 112.33 for Gilts and 115-30+ for 10 year T-note. Cash yields test or breach psychological levels, like 1.50%, 2.5% and 3.25%, while 2-10 year US spread inverts briefly on rising recession risk. Monday agenda very light, but big week ahead including top tier data and multiple Central Bank policy meetings. Central Banks BoJ announces new offer for bond buying programme in which it is to purchase JPY 500bln in 5yr-10yr JGBs tomorrow and will increase amount of offers for its bond buying as needed. BoJ fixed-rate bond purchases exceed JPY 1tln, at their highest since 2018, via Bloomberg; Further reported that the BoJ accepts JPY 1.5tln of bids for the daily offers to purchase 10yr bonds. BoJ Governor Kuroda says they must support the economy with monetary easing to achieve higher wages; adding, the domestic economy is still in the midst of a COVID recovery. Increasing raw material costs are increasing downward pressure, recent sharp JPY dalls are undesirable. Additionally, Japan's Finance Minister says a weak JPY has both merits and demerits. BoJ buys JPY 70.1bln in ETF, according to a disclosure. DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap This week is squarely and firmly all about the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. We go into it with the 2yr US note up +25bps on Friday and another c.+10bps this morning in Asia. The 2s10s curve has flattened around 20bps since Friday morning to c.2bps as we type. So some dramatic moves. The problem as we enter the next couple of Fed and ECB meetings is that the central banks haven't quite been able to let go of forward guidance and are a little trapped. To recap, forward guidance has prevented the Fed and the ECB from hiking as early as they needed to, largely because both saw the need to gradually wind down asset purchases over several months first as promised. However this hasn't deterred them, and they have continued to try to flag their intentions to the market in advance with the Fed having previously all but signalled a 50bps this Wednesday, as well as in July, with the ECB now signalling 25bps in July and a strong possibility of 50bps in September. Providing clarity is admirable but in the wake of another shocking US CPI print on Friday, should a 75bps hike not be a serious consideration? It seems strange that most think policy needs to be restrictive but that it's going to take several meetings to get there from a still highly accommodative position. Without the recent Fed guidance, 75bps would be firmly on the table for Wednesday. This is highly unlikely this week, but our economists think they could break cover from their own guidance and leave the door open for 75bps in July. DB Research has long been at the hawkish end on inflation and the Fed, and on Friday our US economists further raised their hiking expectations. In addition to 50bps at the next two meetings they have now added 50bps in September and November, before a return to 25bps in December (to 3.125%). They now see the peak at 4.125% in mid-2023. This is closer to the 5% view in the "Why the upcoming recession will be worse than expected" (link here) that David Folkerts-Landau, Peter Hooper and myself published back in April. If we do have a terminal Fed rate approaching a 5-handle it does raise the question as to where 10yr yields top out. My guess would be a slightly inverted curve but it would likely mean the 4.5-5% range discussed in the note from April, mentioned above, is within reason. We'll recap details of the big US CPI print in last week's recap in the second half of this piece, but it wasn't just this that was the problem on Friday, as the University of Michigan long-term inflation expectations series hit 3.3% (3.0% last month) which was the highest since 2008. This series first hit 3% last May so has actually been range trading for a year, which has been a hope for the doves. However it now risks breaking out to the upside. It's not just the Fed this week as the BoE (Thursday) and the BoJ (Friday) will also meet. For the UK, a preview from our UK economists can be found here. The team expects a +25bps hike this week and have updated their terminal rate forecast from 1.75% to 2.5%. Staying in the UK, labour market data releases will be out tomorrow with retail sales on Friday. The week will conclude with a decision from the BoJ and how they address pressures from the yen hovering around a 20-year low, as well as the growing monetary policy divergence between Japan and other G7 economies. Our chief Japan economist previews the meeting here. He expects a shortening or even the abandonment of yield curve control in H2 2023. In data terms we go back to the US for the main highlights, with PPI (tomorrow) and retail sales (Friday) the main events. China's key May indicators on Wednesday will also have global implications as we await industrial production, retail sales and property investment numbers. Elsewhere in the US, we have June's Philadelphia Fed business outlook (Wednesday), and May industrial production and capacity utilisation (Friday) numbers. April business inventories will be out on Wednesday and provide markets with a check on corporate stockpiling after Target's renewed warning last week. Finally, a slew of housing market data is due. This includes the June NAHB housing market index (Wednesday) and May building permits and housing starts (Thursday). The impact of rising mortgage rates will be in focus. In Europe, Germany's ZEW survey for June (tomorrow) is among the key data highlights. We will also see April industrial production and trade balance data for the Eurozone on Wednesday and Eurozone construction output and April trade balance data for Italy on Friday. ECB speakers will also be on the radar for investors as they tend to start to break the party line on the Monday after the ECB meeting. A lengthy line up includes ECB President Lagarde on Wednesday and six other speakers. Asian stock markets have started the week on a weaker footing with all the major indices trading deep in the red after a rough week on Wall Street. The Hang Seng (-2.81%) is leading losses across the region in early trade amid a tech sell-off whilst the Shanghai Composite (-1.20%) and CSI (-1.07%) are both sliding as a resurgence of Covid cases in China is threating global growth. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-2.64%) is also sharply down this morning, with the Kospi declining as much as -2.50%, hitting its lowest level since November 2020. As discussed at the top, 10yr USTs (+2.81 bps) have moved higher to 3.18% while the 2yr yield (+9.8 bps) has exploded higher to 3.16%. Will we see a fresh inversion in the hours and days ahead? Oil prices are lower with Brent futures -1.36% to $120.35/bbl and WTI futures -1.48%, falling below the $120/bbl mark. On the FX side, there is no respite for the Japanese yen from rising Treasury yields as the currency hit a fresh 24yr low, declining -0.50% to 135.08 versus the dollar. DMs equity futures point to further losses with contracts on the S&P 500 (-1.33%), NASDAQ 100 (-1.87%) and DAX (-1.37%) all trading in negative territory. Moving on to the French legislative elections. In the first round, exit polls indicate that President Emmanuel Macron is at risk of losing his outright majority after a strong showing by the left-wing alliance in the first round of the country’s parliamentary election. According to the official results, Jean-Luc Mélenchon's left-wing NUPES alliance (+25.61%) finished neck and neck with Mr Macron's Ensemble (+25.71%), in terms of votes cast in Sunday's first round. An average of 5 pollsters expect Macron to win 262-301 seats, with 289 needed to keep his majority. So a nervy wait ahead of the second round. Turning back to review last week now. The business end of the week had two huge macro events that sent markets into some degree of upheaval. On Thursday, the ECB met, confirming the end of net APP purchases this month, paving the way for liftoff in July. Beyond July they opened the door for 50 basis point hikes if inflation persists or deteriorates. Judging by their upgraded forecasts, they are now in the ‘persists’ camp. President Lagarde in the press conference took great pains to commit to fighting inflation in a hawkish tone shift. The bigger market reaction was on the apparent lack of progress on any implementation tool designed to avoid fragmentation. President Lagarde tried to downplay the lack of new tool, leaning on PEPP reinvestment flexibility, but the market wasn’t comfortable that this would be enough. All told, 2yr bunds increased +30.9bps (+13.6bps Friday) on the tighter expected policy path, with the end-2022 policy rate implied by OIS markets ending the week at 0.99%, a new high and in line with our Euro economists updated call (their full review and new call here). The lack of an immediate anti-fragmentation tool saw peripheral spreads underperform, moving to new post-Covid wides, as 10yr BTPs increased +35.9bps (+16.0bps Friday) with 10yr Spanish bonds increasing +34.0bps (+15.6bps Friday), versus a 10yr bund increase of +24.3bps (+8.6bps Friday). The Friday moves above were given a further boost by yet another above consensus US CPI report, with YoY inflation gaining +8.6% in May versus expectations it would stay consistent with the prior month’s +8.3% reading. FOMC officials have consistently cited deceleration in MoM readings as necessary to find clear and convincing evidence that inflation was stabilising and returning to target, evidence which they surely didn’t get on Friday, as MoM inflation increased +1.0% from +0.3% in April, beating lofty expectations of +0.7%. The dramatic beats drove the expected path of Fed tightening sharply higher, with 2yr Treasury yields increasing +40.9bps on the week after a +25.0bp gain Friday, it’s largest one-day move since June 2009. The expected fed funds rate by the end of the year reached a new high of 3.22%. The curve aggressively bear flattened, as the reality that the Fed will have to induce slower growth to tame inflation set in; 10yr yields gained +22.0bps on the week and +11.2bps on Friday, with almost all of the increase coming in real yields. That brings 2s10s to 8.8bps, its flattest since its early-April rebound after its brief inversion. The sharp global policy repricing weighed on equity indices. All major transatlantic indices fell, including the STOXX 600 (-3.95% week, -2.69% Friday), DAX (-4.83%, -3.08%), CAC (-4.60%, -2.69%), S&P 500 (-5.05%, -2.91%), NASDAQ (-5.60%, -3.52%), FANG+ (-2.87%, -3.37%), and Russell 200 (-4.26%, -2.60%). That brings the STOXX 600 -14.49% below its YTD highs reached in the first days of the year, with the S&P 500 -18.40% below the same corresponding metric. Both indices ended the week hovering just above YTD lows. US CDX HY and Euro Crossover were +58bps and +47bps on the week and around +30bps and +25bps wider on Friday. Both are now at their post covid wides. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/13/2022 - 07:57.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 13th, 2022

Retail Sales Swell in September: 3 Fund Picks

Retail sales accelerated in September as coronavirus cases declined and students and employees returned to schools and offices. On Oct 15, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail and food services sales rose 0.7% in September, outpacing the consensus estimate of a 0.1% decline. August’s retail sales figure was also upwardly revised to 0.9%. For the month, spending accelerated as coronavirus cases declined and students and employees returned to schools and offices. This, in turn, boosted sales across sporting goods, music and book stores, highlighting a 3.7% jump from August.Sales across general merchandise and miscellaneous retailers also rose 2% and 1.8%, respectively, while online sales rose 0.6%. However, the fear of coronavirus’ Delta variant spread capped gains across restaurants and bars to 0.3% for the month, while overall food and beverage spending increased 0.7%. Consumers reduced spending on dining out, renting hotel rooms or getting on plane due to the spreading of the Delta variant. But as cases are declining, demand for discretionary products and services will continue to rise.Retail sales, excluding auto and related product sales, rose 0.8%, higher than the forecasted 0.5%. August’s retail sales, excluding auto, were revised upward to a 2% increase.  Auto sales increased 0.5% despite supply-side constraints caused by a shortage in semiconductors, resulting in major production delays. Spending across fuel stations also jumped 1.8% last month.Consumers had to pay extra as the country recorded the highest inflation in three decades. However, Americans have sufficient money to spend as they saved during the pandemic, and government stimulus keeps the economy afloat. Moreover, the labor market is tight and wages have been rising sharply in the past months.3 Top Fund PicksGiven the rebound in retail sales in September, we are optimistic that the trend will continue for the last quarter of the year. Hence, we have shortlisted three mutual funds that are poised to grow. These funds carry a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy). Moreover, these funds have encouraging one and three-year returns. Additionally, the minimum initial investment is within $5000.We expect these funds to outperform peers in the future. Remember, the goal of the Zacks Mutual Fund Rank is to guide investors to identify potential winners and losers. Unlike most fund-rating systems, the Zacks Mutual Fund Rank is not just focused on past performance but also the likely future success of the fund.The question here is: why should investors consider mutual funds? Reduced transaction costs and portfolio diversification without several commission charges associated with stock purchases are primarily why one should be parking money in mutual funds (read more: Mutual Funds: Advantages, Disadvantages, and How They Make Investors Money).Fidelity Select Retailing Portfolio FSRPX fund aims for capital appreciation. This non-diversified fund invests a large portion of its assets in the common stock of companies engaged in merchandising finished goods and services, primarily to individual consumers.This Zacks Sector-Other product has a history of positive total returns for more than 10 years. Specifically, FSRPX has returned 18.4% and 21.6% over the past three and five-year period, respectively. 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Category: topSource: zacksOct 18th, 2021

Futures Slide Alongside Cryptocurrencies Amid China Crackdown

Futures Slide Alongside Cryptocurrencies Amid China Crackdown US futures and European stocks fell amid ongoing nerves over the Evergrande default, while cryptocurrency-linked stocks tumbled after the Chinese central bank said such transactions are illegal. Sovereign bond yields fluctuated after an earlier selloff fueled by the prospect of tighter monetary policy. At 745am ET, S&P 500 e-minis were down 19.5 points, or 0.43%, Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 88.75 points, or 0.58% and Dow e-minis were down 112 points, or 0.33%. In the biggest overnight news, Evergrande offshore creditors remain in limbo and still haven't received their coupon payment effectively starting the 30-day grace period, while also in China, the State Planner issued a notice on the crackdown of cryptocurrency mining, will strictly prohibit financing for new crypto mining projects and strengthen energy consumption controls of new crypto mining projects. Subsequently, the PBoC issued a notice to further prevent and dispose of the risks from speculating on cryptocurrencies, to strengthen monitoring of risks from crypto trading and such activities are illegal. The news sent the crypto space tumbling as much as 8% while cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slumped in U.S. premarket trading. Marathon Digital (MARA) drops 6.5%, Bit Digital (BTBT) declines 4.7%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT) -5.9%, Coinbase -2.8%. Big banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp slipped about 0.5%, while oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp were down 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in premarket trading.Mega-cap FAAMG tech giants fell between 0.5% and 0.6%. Nike shed 4.6% after the sportswear maker cut its fiscal 2022 sales expectations and warned of delays during the holiday shopping season. Several analysts lowered their price targets on the maker of sports apparel and sneakers after the company cut its FY revenue growth guidance to mid-single- digits. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Helbiz (HLBZ) falls 10% after the micromobility company filed with the SEC for the sale of as many as 11m shares by stockholders. Focus Universal (FCUV), an online marketing company that’s been a favorite of retail traders, surged 26% in premarket trading after the stock was cited on Stocktwits in recent days. Vail Resorts (MTN) falls 2.7% in postmarket trading after its full-year forecasts for Ebitda and net income missed at the midpoint. GlycoMimetics (GLYC) jumps 15% postmarket after announcing that efficacy and safety data from a Phase 1/2 study of uproleselan in patients with acute myeloid leukemia were published in the journal Blood on Sept. 16. VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) surges 30% after company says its HPP737 psoriasis treatment showed favorable safety and tolerability profile in a multiple ascending dose study. Fears about a sooner-than-expected tapering amid signs of stalling U.S. economic growth and concerns over a spillover from China Evergrande’s default had rattled investors in September, putting the benchmark S&P 500 index on course to snap a seven-month winning streak. Elaine Stokes, a portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., told Bloomberg Television, adding that “what they did is tell us that they feel really good about the economy.” While the bond selloff vindicated Treasury bears who argue yields are too low to reflect fundamentals, others see limits to how high they can go. “We’d expected bond yields to go higher, given the macro situation where growth is still very strong,” Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist with JPMorgan Asset Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “But we do stress that is a modest view, because we think that upside to yields is still limited from here given that central banks including the Fed are still buying bonds.” Still, Wall Street’s main indexes rallied in the past two session and are set for small weekly gains. European equities dipped at the open but trade off worst levels, with the Euro Stoxx 50 sliding as much as 1.1% before climbing off the lows. France's CAC underperformed at the margin. Retail, financial services are the weakest performers. EQT AB, Europe’s biggest listed private equity firm, fell as much as 8.1% after Sweden’s financial watchdog opened an investigation into suspected market abuse. Here are some of the other biggest European movers today: SMCP shares surge as much as 9.9%, advancing for a 9th session in 10, amid continued hopes the financial troubles of its top shareholder will ultimately lead to a sale TeamViewer climbs much as 4.2% after Bankhaus Metzler initiated coverage with a buy rating, citing the company’s above-market growth AstraZeneca gains as much as 3.6% after its Lynparza drug met the primary endpoint in a prostate cancer trial Darktrace drops as much as 9.2%, paring the stock’s rally over the past few weeks, as a technical pattern triggered a sell signal Adidas and Puma fall as much as 4% and 2.9%, respectively, after U.S. rival Nike’s “large cut” to FY sales guidance, which Jefferies said would “likely hurt” shares of European peers Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for a second day, led by rallies in Japan and Taiwan, following U.S. peers higher amid optimism over the Federal Reserve’s bullish economic outlook and fading concerns over widespread contagion from Evergrande. Stocks were muted in China and Hong Kong. India’s S&P BSE Sensex topped the 60,000 level for the first time on Friday on optimism that speedier vaccinations will improve demand for businesses in Asia’s third-largest economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%, with TSMC and Sony the biggest boosts. That trimmed the regional benchmark’s loss for the week to about 1%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.1%, reopening after a holiday, pushing its advance for September to 7.7%, the best among major global gauges. The Asian regional benchmark pared its gain as Hong Kong stocks fell sharply in late afternoon trading amid continued uncertainty, with Evergrande giving no sign of making an interest payment that was due Thursday. Among key upcoming events is the leadership election for Japan’s ruling party next week, which will likely determine the country’s next prime minister. “Investor concerns over the Evergrande issue have retreated a bit for now,” said Hajime Sakai, chief fund manager at Mito Securities Co. in Tokyo. “But investors will have to keep downside risk in the corner of their minds.” Indian stocks rose, pushing the Sensex above 60,000 for the first time ever. Key gauges fell in Singapore, Malaysia and Australia, while the Thai market was closed for a holiday. Treasuries are higher as U.S. trading day begins after rebounding from weekly lows reached during Asia session, adding to Thursday’s losses. The 10-year yield was down 1bp at ~1.42%, just above the 100-DMA breached on Thursday for the first time in three months; it climbed to 1.449% during Asia session, highest since July 6, and remains 5.2bp higher on the week, its fifth straight weekly increase. Several Fed speakers are slated, first since Wednesday’s FOMC commentary set forth a possible taper timeline.  Bunds and gilts recover off cheapest levels, curves bear steepening. USTs bull steepen, richening 1.5bps from the 10y point out. Peripheral spreads are wider. BTP spreads widen 2-3bps to Bunds. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed back from a one-week low as concern about possible contagion from Evergrande added to buying of the greenback based on the Federal Reserve tapering timeline signaled on Wednesday. NZD, AUD and CAD sit at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. ZAR and TRY are the weakest in EM FX. The pound fell after its rally on Thursday as investors looked ahead to BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s sPeech next week about a possible interest-rate hike. Traders are betting that in a contest to raise borrowing costs first, the Bank of England will be the runaway winner over the Federal Reserve. The New Zealand and Aussie dollars led declines among Group-of-10 peers. The euro was trading flat, with a week full of events failing “to generate any clear directional move,” said ING analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner. German IFO sentiment indeces will “provide extra indications about the area’s sentiment as  businesses faced a combination of delta variant concerns and lingering supply disruptions”. The Norwegian krone is the best performing currency among G10 peers this week, with Thursday’s announcement from the Norges Bank offering support In commodities, crude futures hold a narrow range up around best levels for the week. WTI stalls near $73.40, Brent near $77.50. Spot gold extends Asia’s gains, adding $12 on the session to trade near $1,755/oz. Base metals are mixed, LME nickel and aluminum drop ~1%, LME tin outperforms with a 2.8% rally. Bitcoin dips after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal. Looking to the day ahead now, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,423.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 464.18 German 10Y yield fell 8.5 bps to -0.236% Euro little changed at $1.1737 MXAP up 0.4% to 201.25 MXAPJ down 0.5% to 643.20 Nikkei up 2.1% to 30,248.81 Topix up 2.3% to 2,090.75 Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 24,192.16 Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,613.07 Sensex up 0.2% to 60,031.83 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,342.60 Kospi little changed at 3,125.24 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $77.57/bbl Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,755.38 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.14 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg China Evergrande Group’s unusual silence about a dollar-bond interest payment that was due Thursday has put a focus on what might happen during a 30-day grace period. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target is increasingly out of step with international counterparts and fails to account for structural changes in the country’s economy over the past 30 years, Westpac Banking Corp.’s Bill Evans said. With central banks from Washington to London this week signaling more alarm over faster inflation, the ultra-stimulative path of the euro zone and some of its neighbors appears lonelier than ever. China’s central bank continued to pump liquidity into the financial system on Friday as policy makers sought to avoid contagion stemming from China Evergrande Group spreading to domestic markets. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mixed with the region failing to fully sustain the impetus from the positive performance across global counterparts after the silence from Evergrande and lack of coupon payments for its offshore bonds, stirred uncertainty for the company. ASX 200 (-0.4%) was negative as underperformance in mining names and real estate overshadowed the advances in tech and resilience in financials from the higher yield environment. Nikkei 225 (+2.1%) was the biggest gainer overnight as it played catch up to the prior day’s recovery on return from the Autumnal Equinox holiday in Japan and with exporters cheering the recent risk-conducive currency flows, while KOSPI (-0.1%) was lacklustre amid the record daily COVID-19 infections and after North Korea deemed that it was premature to declare that the Korean War was over. Hang Seng (-1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) were indecisive after further liquidity efforts by the PBoC were offset by concerns surrounding Evergrande after the Co. failed to make coupon payments due yesterday for offshore bonds but has a 30-day grace period with the Co. remaining quiet on the issue. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower on spillover selling from global counterparts including the declines in T-notes as the US 10yr yield breached 1.40% for the first time since early-July with the pressure in bonds also stemming from across the Atlantic following a more hawkish BoE, while the presence of the BoJ in the market today for over JPY 1.3tln of government bonds with 1yr-10yr maturities did very little to spur prices. Top Asian News Rivals for Prime Minister Battle on Social Media: Japan Election Asian Stocks Rise for Second Day, Led by Gains in Japan, Taiwan Hong Kong Stocks Still Wagged by Evergrande Tail Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index Extends Decline to More Than 2% European equities (Stoxx 600 -0.9%) are trading on the back foot in the final trading session of the week amid further advances in global bond yields and a mixed APAC handover. Overnight, saw gains for the Nikkei 225 of 2.1% with the index aided by favourable currency flows, whilst Chinese markets lagged (Shanghai Comp. -0.8%, Hang Seng -1.6%) with further liquidity efforts by the PBoC offset by concerns surrounding Evergrande after the Co. failed to make coupon payments due yesterday for offshore bonds. As context, despite the losses in Europe today, the Stoxx 600 is still higher by some 1.2% on the week. Stateside, futures are also on a softer footing with the ES down by 0.4% ahead of a busy Fed speaker schedule. Back to Europe, sectors are lower across the board with Retail and Personal & Household Goods lagging peers. The former has been hampered by losses in Adidas (-3.0%) following after hours earnings from Nike (-4.2% pre-market) which saw the Co. cut its revenue guidance amid supply chain woes. AstraZeneca (+2.1%) sits at the top of the FTSE 100 after announcing that the Lynparza PROpel trial met its primary endpoint. Daimler’s (+0.1%) Mercedes-Benz has announced that it will take a 33% stake in a battery cell manufacturing JV with Total and Stellantis. EQT (-6.5%) sits at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the Swedish FSA announced it will open an investigation into the Co. Top European News EQT Investigated by Sweden’s FSA Over Suspected Market Abuse Gazprom Says Claims of Gas Under-supply to Europe Are ‘Absurd’ German Sept. Ifo Business Confidence 98.8; Est. 99 German Business Index at Five-Month Low in Pre-Election Verdict In FX, the rot seems to have stopped for the Buck in terms of its sharp and marked fall from grace amidst post-FOMC reflection and re-positioning in the financial markets on Thursday. Indeed, the Dollar index has regained some poise to hover above the 93.000 level having recoiled from 93.526 to 92.977 over the course of yesterday’s hectic session that saw the DXY register a marginal new w-t-d high and low at either end of the spectrum. Pre-weekend short covering and consolidation may be giving the Greenback a lift, while the risk backdrop is also less upbeat ahead of a raft of Fed speakers flanking US new home sales data. Elsewhere, the Euro remains relatively sidelined and contained against the Buck with little independent inspiration from the latest German Ifo survey as the business climate deteriorated broadly in line with consensus and current conditions were worse than forecast, but business expectations were better than anticipated. Hence, Eur/Usd is still stuck in a rut and only briefly/fractionally outside 1.1750-00 parameters for the entire week, thus far, as hefty option expiry interest continues to keep the headline pair in check. However, there is significantly less support or gravitational pull at the round number today compared to Thursday as ‘only’ 1.3 bn rolls off vs 4.1 bn, and any upside breach could be capped by 1.1 bn between 1.1765-85. CAD/NZD/AUD - Some payback for the non-US Dollars following their revival, with the Loonie waning from 1.2650+ peaks ahead of Canadian budget balances, though still underpinned by crude as WTI hovers around Usd 73.50/brl and not far from decent option expiries (from 1.2655-50 and 1.2625-30 in 1.4 bn each). Similarly, the Kiwi has faded after climbing to within single digits of 0.7100 in wake of NZ trade data overnight revealing a much wider deficit as exports slowed and imports rose, while the Aussie loses grip of the 0.7300 handle and skirts 1.1 bn option expiries at 0.7275. CHF/GBP/JPY - The Franc is fairly flat and restrained following a dovish SNB policy review that left in lagging somewhat yesterday, with Usd/Chf and Eur/Chf straddling 0.9250 and 1.0850 respectively, in contrast to Sterling that is paring some hawkish BoE momentum, as Cable retreats to retest bids circa 1.3700 and Eur/Gbp bounces from sub-0.8550. Elsewhere, the Yen has not been able to fend off further downside through 110.00 even though Japanese participants have returned to the fray after the Autumn Equinox holiday and reports suggest some COVID-19 restrictions may be lifted in 13 prefectures on a trial basis. SCANDI/EM/PM/CRYPTO - A slight change in the pecking order in Scandi-land as the Nok loses some post-Norges Bank hike impetus and the Sek unwinds a bit of its underperformance, but EM currencies are bearing the brunt of the aforementioned downturn in risk sentiment and firmer Usd, with the Zar hit harder than other as Gold is clings to Usd 1750/oz and Try down to deeper post-CBRT rate cut lows after mixed manufacturing sentiment and cap u readings. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being shackled by the latest Chinese crackdown on mining and efforts to limit risks from what it describes as unlawful speculative crypto currency trading. In commodities, WTI and Brent are set the conclude the week in the green with gains in excess of 2% for WTI at the time of writing; in-spite of the pressure seen in the complex on Monday and the first-half of Tuesday, where a sub USD 69.50/bbl low was printed. Fresh newsflow has, once again, been limited for the complex and continues to focus on the gas situation. More broadly, no update as of yet on the Evergrande interest payment and by all accounts we appear to have entered the 30-day grace period for this and, assuming catalysts remain slim, updates on this will may well dictate the state-of-play. Schedule wise, the session ahead eyes significant amounts of central bank commentary but from a crude perspective the weekly Baker Hughes rig count will draw attention. On the weather front, Storm Sam has been upgraded to a Hurricane and is expected to rapidly intensify but currently remains someway into the mid-Atlantic. Moving to metals, LME copper is pivoting the unchanged mark after a mixed APAC lead while attention is on Glencore’s CSA copper mine, which it has received an offer for; the site in 2020 produced circa. 46k/T of copper which is typically exported to Asia smelters. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are firmer but have been very contained and remain well-within overnight ranges thus far. Which sees the yellow metal holding just above the USD 1750/oz mark after a brief foray below the level after the US-close. US Event Calendar 10am: Aug. New Home Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0% 10am: Aug. New Home Sales, est. 715,000, prior 708,000 Central Bank Speakers 8:45am: Fed’s Mester Discusses the Economic Outlook 10am: Powell, Clarida and Bowman Host Fed Listens Event 10:05am: Fed’s George Discusses Economic Outlook 12pm: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Equitable Community Development DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap WFH today is a bonus as it’s time for the annual ritual at home where the latest, sleekest, shiniest iPhone model arrives in the post and i sheepishly try to justify to my wife when I get home why I need an incremental upgrade. This year to save me from the Spanish Inquisition I’m going to intercept the courier and keep quiet. Problem is that such speed at intercepting the delivery will be logistically challenging as I remain on crutches (5 weeks to go) and can’t grip properly with my left hand due to an ongoing trapped nerve. I’m very glad I’m not a racehorse. Although hopefully I can be put out to pasture in front of the Ryder Cup this weekend. The big news of the last 24 hours has been a galloping global yield rise worthy of the finest thoroughbred. A hawkish Fed meeting, with the dots increasing and the end of QE potentially accelerated, didn’t quite have the ability to move markets but the global dam finally broke yesterday with Norway being the highest profile developed country to raise rates this cycle (expected), but more importantly a Bank of England meeting that saw the market reappraise rate hikes. Looking at the specific moves, yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +13.0bps to 1.430% in their biggest daily increase since 25 February, as both higher real rates (+7.9bps) and inflation breakevens (+4.9bps) drove the advance. US 10yr yields had been trading in a c.10bp range for the last month before breaking out higher, though they have been trending higher since dropping as far as 1.17% back in early-August. US 30yr yields rose +13.2bps, which was the biggest one day move in long dated yields since March 17 2020, which was at the onset of the pandemic and just days after the Fed announced it would be starting the current round of QE. The large selloff in US bonds saw the yield curve steepen and the long-end give back roughly half of the FOMC flattening from the day before. The 5y30y curve steepened 3.4bps for a two day move of -3.3bps. However the 2y10y curve steepened +10.5bps, completely reversing the prior day’s flattening (-4.2bps) and leaving the spread at 116bp, the steepest level since first week of July. 10yr gilt yields saw nearly as strong a move (+10.8bps) with those on shorter-dated 2yr gilts (+10.7bps) hitting their highest level (0.386%) since the pandemic began.That came on the back of the BoE’s latest policy decision, which pointed in a hawkish direction, building on the comment in the August statement that “some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period is likely to be necessary” by saying that “some developments during the intervening period appear to have strengthened that case”. The statement pointed out that the rise in gas prices since August represented an upside risks to their inflation projections from next April, and the MPC’s vote also saw 2 members (up from 1 in August) vote to dial back QE. See DB’s Sanjay Raja’s revised rate hike forecasts here. We now expect a 15bps hike in February. The generalised move saw yields in other European countries rise as well, with those on 10yr bunds (+6.6bps), OATs (+6.5bps) and BTPs (+5.7bps) all seeing big moves higher with 10yr bunds seeing their biggest climb since late-February and back to early-July levels as -0.258%. The yield rise didn’t stop equity indices recovering further from Monday’s rout, with the S&P 500 up +1.21% as the index marked its best performance in over 2 months, and its best 2-day performance since May. Despite the mood at the end of the weekend, the S&P now starts Friday in positive territory for the week. The rally yesterday was led by cyclicals for a second straight day with higher commodity prices driving outsized gains for energy (+3.41%) and materials (+1.39%) stocks, and the aforementioned higher yields causing banks (+3.37%) and diversified financials (+2.35%) to outperform. The reopening trade was the other main beneficiary as airlines rose +2.99% and consumer services, which include hotel and cruiseline companies, gained +1.92%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.93%) witnessed a similarly strong performance, with index led by banks (+2.16%). As a testament to the breadth of yesterday’s rally, the travel and leisure sector (+0.04%) was the worst performing sector on this side of the Atlantic even while registering a small gain and lagging its US counterparts. Before we get onto some of yesterday’s other events, it’s worth noting that this is actually the last EMR before the German election on Sunday, which has long been signposted as one of the more interesting macro events on the 2021 calendar, the results of which will play a key role in not just domestic, but also EU policy. And with Chancellor Merkel stepping down after four terms in office, this means that the country will soon be under new management irrespective of who forms a government afterwards. It’s been a volatile campaign in many respects, with Chancellor Merkel’s CDU/CSU, the Greens and the centre-left SPD all having been in the lead at various points over the last six months. But for the last month Politico’s Poll of Polls has shown the SPD consistently ahead, with their tracker currently putting them on 25%, ahead of the CDU/CSU on 22% and the Greens on 16%. However the latest poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen yesterday suggested a tighter race with the SPD at 25, the CDU/CSU at 23% and the Greens at 16.5%. If the actual results are in line with the recent averages, it would certainly mark a sea change in German politics, as it would be the first time that the SPD have won the popular vote since the 2002 election. Furthermore, it would be the CDU/CSU’s worst ever result, and mark the first time in post-war Germany that the two main parties have failed to win a majority of the vote between them, which mirrors the erosion of the traditional big parties in the rest of continental Europe. For the Greens, 15% would be their best ever score, and exceed the 9% they got back in 2017 that left them in 6th place, but it would also be a disappointment relative to their high hopes back in the spring, when they were briefly polling in the mid-20s after Annalena Baerbock was selected as their Chancellor candidate. In terms of when to expect results, the polls close at 17:00 London time, with initial exit polls released immediately afterwards. However, unlike the UK, where a new majority government can immediately come to power the day after the election, the use of proportional representation in Germany means that it could potentially be weeks or months before a new government is formed. Indeed, after the last election in September 2017, it wasn’t until March 2018 that the new grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD took office, after attempts to reach a “Jamaica” coalition between the CDU/CSU, the FDP and the Greens was unsuccessful. In the meantime, the existing government will act as a caretaker administration. On the policy implications, it will of course depend on what sort of government is actually formed, but our research colleagues in Frankfurt have produced a comprehensive slidepack (link here) running through what the different parties want across a range of policies, and what the likely coalitions would mean for Germany. They also put out another note yesterday (link here) where they point out that there’s still much to play for, with the SPD’s lead inside the margin of error and with an unusually high share of yet undecided voters. Moving on to Asia and markets are mostly higher with the Nikkei (+2.04%), CSI (+0.53%) and India’s Nifty (+0.52%) up while the Hang Seng (-0.03%), Shanghai Comp (-0.07%) and Kospi (-0.10%) have all made small moves lower. Meanwhile, the Evergrande group missed its dollar bond coupon payment yesterday and so far there has been no communication from the group on this. They have a 30-day grace period to make the payment before any event of default can be declared. This follows instructions from China’s Financial regulators yesterday in which they urged the group to take all measures possible to avoid a near-term default on dollar bonds while focusing on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors. Yields on Australia and New Zealand’s 10y sovereign bonds are up +14.5bps and +11.3bps respectively this morning after yesterday’s move from their western counterparts. Yields on 10y USTs are also up a further +1.1bps to 1.443%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.04% while those on the Stoxx 50 are down -0.10%. In terms of overnight data, Japan’s August CPI printed at -0.4% yoy (vs. -0.3% yoy expected) while core was unchanged in line with expectations. We also received Japan’s flash PMIs with the services reading at 47.4 (vs. 42.9 last month) while the manufacturing reading came in at 51.2 (vs. 52.7 last month). In pandemic related news, Jiji reported that Japan is planning to conduct trials of easing Covid restrictions, with 13 prefectures indicating they’d like to participate. This is likely contributing to the outperformance of the Nikkei this morning. Back to yesterday now, and one of the main highlights came from the flash PMIs, which showed a continued deceleration in growth momentum across Europe and the US, and also underwhelmed relative to expectations. Running through the headline numbers, the Euro Area composite PMI fell to 56.1 (vs. 58.5 expected), which is the lowest figure since April, as both the manufacturing (58.7 vs 60.3 expected) and services (56.3 vs. 58.5 expected) came in beneath expectations. Over in the US, the composite PMI fell to 54.5 in its 4th consecutive decline, as the index hit its lowest level in a year, while the UK’s composite PMI at 54.1 (vs. 54.6 expected) was the lowest since February when the country was still in a nationwide lockdown. Risk assets seemed unperturbed by the readings, and commodities actually took another leg higher as they rebounded from their losses at the start of the week. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index rose +1.12% as Brent crude oil (+1.39%) closed at $77.25/bbl, which marked its highest closing level since late 2018, while WTI (+1.07%) rose to $73.30/bbl, so still a bit beneath its recent peak in July. However that is a decent rebound of roughly $11/bbl since its recent low just over a month ago. Elsewhere, gold (-1.44%) took a knock amidst the sharp move higher in yields, while European natural gas prices subsidised for a third day running, with futures now down -8.5% from their intraday peak on Tuesday, although they’re still up by +71.3% since the start of August. US negotiations regarding the upcoming funding bill and raising the debt ceiling are ongoing, with House Speaker Pelosi saying that the former, also called a continuing resolution, will pass “both houses by September 30,” and fund the government through the first part of the fiscal year, starting October 1. Treasury Secretary Yellen has said the US will likely breach the debt ceiling sometime in the next month if Congress does not increase the level, and because Republicans are unwilling to vote to raise the ceiling, Democrats will have to use the once-a-fiscal-year tool of budget reconciliation to do so. However Democrats, are also using that process for the $3.5 trillion dollar economic plan that makes up the bulk of the Biden agenda, and have not been able to get full party support yet. During a joint press conference with Speaker Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that Democrats have a “framework” to pay for the Biden Economic agenda, which would imply that the broad outline of a deal was reached between the House, Senate and the White House. However, no specifics were mentioned yesterday. With Democrats looking to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill early next week, negotiations today and this weekend on the potential reconciliation package will be vital. Looking at yesterday’s other data, the weekly initial jobless claims from the US for the week through September 18 unexpectedly rose to 351k (vs. 320k expected), which is the second week running they’ve come in above expectations. Separately, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index fell to 0.29 in August (vs. 0.50 expected), and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index also fell more than expected to 22 in September (vs. 25 expected). To the day ahead now, and data highlights include the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany for September, along with Italian consumer confidence for September and US new home sales for August. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/24/2021 - 08:12.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 24th, 2021

I worked from Vegas without telling my boss. It was perfect — until I had a surprise Zoom call in a casino.

"I don't know why jobs don't understand many workers can work anywhere," a remote worker who went to Vegas says. "Work from home should be flexible." Matthias Tunger via Getty Images Insider recently spoke to a 32-year-old nonprofit worker who went to Vegas while working remotely. They didn't tell their boss, and everything was going smoothly until an unexpected Zoom meeting. "Many workers can work anywhere," they said. "If you allow work-from-home, it should be flexible." This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with a 32-year-old nonprofit worker. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to protect their career, but Insider has verified their identity and employment. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.When I started working entirely from home, I didn't think I would find myself taking a Zoom call from a Vegas casino while trying to make my boss think I was in my home office.But in September, that's exactly where I was.I work at a nonprofit, and I'm entirely remoteEven still, there's the expectation that I'm working from home and sitting at my computer the entire day. My boss is a big rule follower — I feel like she doesn't even move from her desk between 9 a.m. and 6 p.m. every day. Even when I work from coffee shops, I feel the need to explain it to her. I feel like she's judging me every time my Zoom background is something different than what she knows to be my home office with all my plants behind me. We have this strict Zoom culture at my jobYou always want to make sure your icon is green to show that you're available and actively working.The other day, I had a doctor's appointment. I had to log in an hour late, and I let my whole team know. It's strange, because at previous jobs, I could have just hopped online later. I wouldn't have had to let anyone know.But this is more intense. It feels archaic in a sense. Why does it matter where I'm working from and what time I get online if I'm getting my work done?I have family in Las Vegas, so I often visitI figured I would just work from there and no one at work would be the wiser. On a day that I didn't have meetings, I worked entirely from the pool. I didn't tell anyone, because I don't think it matters.I was working — why does it matter that I was doing it poolside in Vegas?When I did have Zoom meetings, I was careful about where I was workingFor us, the expectation is that we always have our camera on. That makes traveling a bit more tricky.Sometimes I would go to a Starbucks and just mention that I was working from a coffee shop. But other times, I would find a nondescript background and pretend I was at home.There were times when I was at the bar in the hotel lobby during Zoom calls, but no one could tell because the wall behind me was blank and white. I used my AirPods Pro, which are noise-canceling even when you're speaking, which was a super useful feature for me.Everything was going well until my boss added an unexpected meeting to my calendarI was in my hotel room, and I knew I needed to find somewhere to Zoom from that was less obvious. I went down to the lobby to find a chair or couch that had an unassuming background, but everywhere that I had used before was taken.I was literally walking around the hotel and casino with my laptop, trying every chair in the lobby with my Photo Booth app open on my computer to see what my background would look like, but I couldn't find anywhere. Finally, I walked through the casino and saw a bar in the corner with a couch up against a wall. I sat there and checked my background; everything looked fine.When I found a nondescript background, the next challenge was my audio Casinos are really loud with all the dinging of the slot machines and the conversations of the people drinking and playing. I was worried my boss would be able to hear it, so I quickly sent a chat to one of my coworkers and told her the truth — that I was in a Vegas casino and I was worried our boss would be able to tell.My coworker said she'd set up a quick Zoom for us to check what our boss would be able to hear. With my noise-canceling AirPods in, my coworker said she couldn't hear the casino sounds.I was so thankful, but it was such a stressful situation. I was totally scrambling, but it worked out in the end.I wish I'd felt like I could be honest with my boss about where I wasIt would have saved me a lot of time that I spent frantically trying to find a couch in the hotel lobby with a white wall for a Zoom background. I don't know why employers don't understand that many workers can work from anywhere, and if you're allowing work-from-home, it should be really flexible. I think that mindset — that you have to be sitting at a desk nine hours a day or you're not actually working — is going to make certain generations obsolete one day.Do you have an interesting story about working remotely, with or without your job's permission? Email Fortesa Latifi at the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytJan 28th, 2023

We visited stores like Walmart and Home Depot to see how they are tackling the industry"s $95 billion shoplifting problem. We found an alarming amount of locked up items with security cameras watching every aisle.

Retailers like Target, Walmart, Lowe's, and Home Depot have enhanced anti-theft measures in recent years in a widening effort to prevent organized retail crime. Home Depot locks away many of its power tools to prevent theft.Dominick Reuter/Insider Retail theft has become a $95 billion problem for the industry, per the National Retail Federation. We visited four retailers' stores to see what anti-theft measures they are putting into place. The stores had an abundance of spider wraps, items under lock-and-key, and security cameras. Industry groups say retail theft has become a $94.5 billion problem.Some of the more than $200,000 in stolen retail goods seized by the San Francisco Police Department from a man who was reselling them online.San Francisco Police Department via APSource: InsiderAnd organized retail crime has skyrocketed and exacerbated retailers' problems, according to theft prevention experts.Suffolk County District Attorney Raymond Tierney, during a press conference in the law library at the Suffolk County Courthouse on March 16, 2022, announces the indictments of four New Jersey residents who stole thousands of dollars worth of purses from retail store Balenciaga in East Hampton, New York.James Carbone/Newsday RM via Getty ImagesLeaders at major retailers nationwide, like Walmart CEO Doug McMillon, have sounded the alarm, saying that stores will close and/or prices will rise if theft doesn't slow down.Walmart's CEO Doug McMillon.REUTERS/Jonathan ErnstSource: InsiderWe visited several big-box stores in the Midwest to see how retailers are approaching anti-theft measures.Walmart has installed cameras on medication and beauty aisles in a store in Louisville, Kentucky.Ben TobinWalmart installed a mobile surveillance "lot cop" in a parking lot in a store in Louisville, Kentucky, to try to scare away shoplifters.Walmart is trying to deter theft by installing cameras in its parking lot.Ben TobinSurveillance continued into the store, with signs warning customers that there are "security cameras in use" and "reducing theft helps us all by keeping prices low."Walmart installed security cameras on beauty and medicine aisles to deter theft.Ben TobinLike other retailers, Walmart locked many items, like beauty and electronics, behind glass doors, requiring customers to get an employee to retrieve products for them.Walmart locks many beauty items behind glass doors.Ben TobinThe store also locked a plethora of items in plastic boxes, requiring them to be removed at check out.Walmart locks away some items in plastic boxes.Ben TobinWalmart covered items throughout the store with spider wrap alarms, which will sound off if an item is stolen from a store.Walmart places spider wrap alarms on many of its products.Ben TobinSpider wraps were also a common sight at a Target near Madison, Wisconsin.Dominick Reuter/InsiderBundles of loose wraps were kept in a restocking cart to be added to merchandise before putting it on the shelf.Dominick Reuter/InsiderA video game display at Target used a tether to let shoppers look at a title, but required staff assistance to get a copy from a locker in order to buy it.Dominick Reuter/InsiderMost personal care items were available on the shelf at Target, but Plan B emergency contraceptive pills were placed in security boxes.Dominick Reuter/InsiderElsewhere in Target's beauty section, the only items with security RF tags were fake eyelashes and press-on nails.Dominick Reuter/InsiderTarget protects its shopping carts with a cart retrieval system made by Gatekeeper Systems.Dominick Reuter/InsiderAn estimated 2 million shopping carts are stolen each year, costing retailers an estimated $800 million.Dominick Reuter/InsiderAt a Home Depot in Madison, Wisconsin, one of several security cameras monitoring the front entrance showed shoppers that they were on camera.Dominick Reuter/InsiderHousehold electrical fuses were hung on twist-release displays, which make it harder to pull several off the rack at once.Dominick Reuter/InsiderHigher-priced power tools were locked in merchandise cages at Home Depot, though it wasn't indicated whether a purchase was needed to activate them.Dominick Reuter/InsiderA padlock on a merchandise cage reminded store workers at Home Depot to personally bring items to the checkout.Dominick Reuter/InsiderSome battery packs that were locked in cages were also tagged with RF devices at Home Depot.Dominick Reuter/InsiderBut application of security tags was a bit inconsistent across the store.Dominick Reuter/InsiderHome Depot also used locks and non-working units to display items, like these nail guns.Dominick Reuter/InsiderAt a Lowe's in Louisville, Kentucky, power tools on display were protected with small alarms from Swiss company Pataco.Lowe's uses Pataco alarms to ensure displayed power tools don't get stolen/Ben TobinWith other items like leaf blowers, the store had less intense anti-theft measures, using traditional locks to keep them safe.Leaf blowers are locked up at Lowe's.Ben TobinLowe's also locked away many of its items, particularly power tools, behind caged doors...Lowe's locks many power tools away behind caged doors.Ben Tobin... and announced an initiative this year where some power tools won't work unless activated while being purchased.Lowe's has taken many measures to protect its power tools.Ben TobinSource: InsiderLowe's also had security cameras on several of its power tool aisles.Ben TobinRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 26th, 2023

It"s a terrible time to be a sneaker reseller

Adidas' messy breakup with Ye, the rapper formerly known as Kanye West, is the latest in a series of complications for sneaker resellers. A series of complications have hit sneaker resellers.Nike; Adidas; Yeezy; Rachel Mendelson/Insider Adidas' messy breakup with Ye is the latest in a series of complications for sneaker resellers. Sneaker resellers have felt the effects of the end of the stimulus check and the rise of inflation. Consumers have also lost confidence in reselling and brands are cracking down on bots.  The last few years have seen the spectacular rise and the incredible fall of the sneaker reseller, a side hustle that flourished during the height of the pandemic. Adidas' messy breakup with Ye, the rapper formerly known as Kanye West, was the latest in a series of complications to befall this enterprising group. Over the past year, sneaker resellers have felt the knock-on effects of the end of the stimulus check, the rise of inflation, an increase in sneaker production, a loss of confidence in the industry, and a crackdown on bots — software that makes it nearly effortless for resellers to nab a large volume of shoes. When resellers lost the e-commerce site Yeezy Supply after Adidas ended its relationship with the brand, it was the last straw for many resellers. The site is known in the sneaker-reselling space as one of the last remaining "bottable" sites. "After the Yeezy announcement, a handful of people have come to me and said, 'I can't do this anymore; it's not worth it," David "Kari" Daniels, a sneaker-content creator on YouTube, said.     Sneaker resellers saw a bot crackdown While not as lucrative as Nike in the aftermarket, it was easier to buy Yeezys in bulk on Yeezy Supply using bots. These are the software applications that speed up the online-checkout process and help shoppers nab more product. Though the profit from each sale was slim, it was worthwhile for resellers who could buy large volumes. The loss of Yeezy sales then combined with Nike's crackdown on bots. Adidas cut ties with Ye in 2022.AdidasTaking direct aim at resellers, Nike updated its  terms of sales in October, warning that it reserved the right to cancel sales "placed with automated ordering software" as well as purchases "for the purpose of resale."  Nike later revealed that bot attacks can make up between about 10% and 50% of all entries on its SNKRS app. Every month, Nike stops as many as 12 billion bots trying to game SNKRS launches globally and actively identifies accounts showing bot activity during every launch. Daniels said the decline in demand for sneakers has especially hurt resellers who depend on quick flips — reselling the shoes immediately after buying them — to sustain their businesses.  You live by the bot, you die by the bot. Mike Packer, owner of boutique sneaker store Packer Shoes in Teaneck, NJ"They don't have the financial resources to hold product for long enough to see the market rebound, so it's not worth buying to flip right now," Daniels said.  The May demise of Zadeh Kicks, a resale business the Department of Justice is currently investigating for wire and bank fraud, took an added toll on resellers' bank accounts. Federal prosecutors estimate the business ripped off more than $70 million in undelivered sneakers from customers. "Millions and millions of dollars were lost, and the people hurting the most are the consumers and resellers who will never see their money again," Daniels said.  Nike also undermined consumer confidence in the resale industry in May when the company filed a suit against StockX, partly claiming StockX was selling counterfeit shoes. Indicating it was stepping back from guaranteeing the legitimacy of products sold on its platform, in November, StockX changed the language on products sold from "verified authentic" to "StockX authentic." Mike Packer, the owner of the boutique-sneaker store Packer Shoes in Teaneck, New Jersey, said that while the hardcore resellers are still there, the casual resellers have dwindled, and it's getting harder for brands and retailers to level the playing field for manual buyers.  "You live by the bot, you die by the bot. It's not the brands' or the retailers' job to make sure they make money," Packer said.  Sneakers aren't selling One of the biggest signs of a more-challenging resale market is shoes sitting, a reference to when launch-day sneakers are still available in multiple sizes days after a release. "During the pandemic, Air Jordan 1 was a guaranteed seller. Buy it at retail, and whatever you pay, it will sell," Michelangelo Falcon, the owner of Equvalence, a sneaker-consignment shop in Encino, California, said. But that's not the case anymore. "The other day, I saw an AJ1 yellow toe, a shoe that, in three years, will be worth $700, and it's sitting on"  One of the biggest signs of a more challenging resale market is shoes sitting.Wesley Lapointe/Los Angeles Times via Getty ImagesFalcon said peak sales were during May 2020 when stores in California reopened after lockdowns. While a lack of inventory challenged his store at the time, customers spent stimulus and unemployment checks freely. Now, the tables have turned, with sellers looking to offload inventory while buyers pull back.  To Falcon, the first quarter of 2022 is "when the COVID bubble began to pop," adding that traffic to his store has declined by 20% since then. The drop-off has been starker on eBay's site, where Chris Burns, a sneaker analyst and the founder of Arch-USA, tracked Black Friday sales. Using the key word "sneakers," Burns found a decline of 31.6% on all athletic shoes, including Jordans, versus the prior year, with the average selling price down by 16.2%. Companies that rely on sneaker resale need to diversify As the number of customers willing to pay a high premium for sneakers continues to decline, it's forced companies to adjust their business models. StockX has expanded offerings beyond shoes and apparel to include collectibles, electronics, and trading cards.  In the middle of 2021, StockX began advertising products selling "below retail" and now prominently features a tab on each category page showing items selling at a discounted price. GOAT Group, which sells both used and new sneakers and clothing, recently bought the resale platform Grailed, bolstering its apparel and accessory offerings.  Meanwhile, late last year, eBay brought back seller fees for shoes listed for more than $150, a reversal from the no-fee policy the site announced in December 2019.  "If the big resell platforms like StockX and GOAT are here five years from now, it will be by acquiring new revenue streams, not by doing exactly what they're doing now," Daniels said. "Sneaker-resale companies are going to have to figure out how to reach new customers and create new revenue streams." In Falcon's case, he and his business partner recently launched the shoe-cleaning brand QUIQ and Boba N Tings, a streetwear-themed bubble-tea shop where customers can also buy collectibles.  He plans to cast an even wider net to capture a bigger customer base in the future. "We always targeted the regular consumer, not the sneaker community. I'm working to expand my team to accommodate the online customer, walk-in customer, and sneaker customer," Falcon said. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytJan 24th, 2023

Futures Steady As Fed Blackout Begins, China On Holiday, Earnings Galore

Futures Steady As Fed Blackout Begins, China On Holiday, Earnings Galore US equity futures were little changed, trading in a narrow ten point range during a muted overnight session on Monday as investors braced for a moderation in Fed rate increases after the Fed mouthpiece suggested a 25bps hike is now the baseline (coming at a time when the Fed is now in a quiet period until the Feb 1 FOMC meeting), while bracing for a busy week of earnings. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures each rose 0.1% at 7:45 a.m. ET after both underlying benchmarks rallied on Friday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index has posted three weeks of gains, the longest winning streak since mid-August. 10Y TSY yield rose 2bps to 3.50%, while the dollar rebounded from nine-month lows against the euro and a group of other currencies, after a slew of Federal Reserve officials laid out the case for a downshift in the Fed's rate-tightening campaign. China and most Asian markets were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. In premarket trading, Tesla rose more than 2% as sentiment toward the EV maker recovers after aggressive price cuts are seenas helping it gain market share. Salesforce climbed 4.1%  after hedge fund Elliott Investment Management took a substantial activist stake in the enterprise software giant. Western Digital shares gained 1.4% after a Bloomberg report that the company and Kioxia are progressing in their merger talks. Western Digital would spin off its flash business and merge it with Kioxia, creating a publicly traded company in the US, according to people familiar with the matter. Spotify shares advanced 2.6% in US premarket trading, after Bloomberg reported that the music streaming company is said to be planning job cuts as soon as this week, amid layoffs in the broader tech industry. Bank stocks are lower in premarket trading following their best day since November on Friday. In corporate news, Germany’s antitrust regulator opened an investigation into PayPal over potential obstruction of competitors. Here are some other notable premarket movers: AMD and Qualcomm rise after they were upgraded at Barclays, while Applied Materials declines amid a downgrade. Barclays says it’s more positive on semiconductor companies with data center, PC and handset exposure, but remains negative on semiconductor capital equipment stocks. AMD gains 2.5%, Qualcomm advances 2.1%, Applied Materials declines 2% Pliant Therapeutics surges 69% after the biotech announced data from its phase 2 trial for bexotegrast, its treatment for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), prompting analysts to raise their price targets on the stock. Western Digital shares gain 1.4% after a Bloomberg report that the company and Kioxia are progressing in their merger talks. Western Digital would spin off its flash business and merge it with Kioxia, creating a publicly traded company in the US, according to people familiar with the matter. Keep an eye on Warner Music as it was downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Barclays, which said the recording company’s financial performance has been too volatile to justify a premium valuation. Peer Universal Music is maintained at overweight. Keep an eye on Flywire as it was initiated with an equal weight rating at Morgan Stanley, with the broker expecting faster growth due to the payments company’s “significant competitive product advantages” and untapped potential with global colleges and universities. Planet Labs stock could be in focus after it was initiated at equal-weight by Morgan Stanley, which expects the wireless telecom firm to boost annual revenue by 20%-25% over the next two-to-five years and achieve positive free-cash flow toward the end of that period. Deutsche Bank expects another volatile year for US software stocks as investors look for a bottom amid weakening fundamentals. Downgrades Check Point, Matterport, Workday, CrowdStrike and SentinelOne, while raising Shopify and Confluent. PTC Inc. is upgraded to overweight from sector weight at KeyBanc, with analysts saying the US software provider could be “one of the best” free cash flow growth stories over the next three years. Investors are increasingly contrasting the US picture with a relatively rosier outlook for Europe, which many reckon will manage to dodge recession this year. Forecasts of a US recession in the second half of 2023, the ongoing wrangling in Congress over the debt ceiling and signals from companies weighed on equity index futures, which struggled to build on Friday’s momentum that lifted S&P 500 after four days of losses. On Friday Fed Governor Christopher Waller, one of the more hawkish officials at the US central bank, joined other policymakers in backing another moderation in the size of rate increases when they next gather. Investors are also weighing the incoming stream of corporate earnings for signs of how corporate margins are holding up against inflation and economic slowdown pressures. By contrast, ECB policymakers Klaas Knot and Peter Kazimir spoke in favor of continuing with half-point interest-rate increases at the next two meetings, adding to the hawkish comments made last week by fellow ECB officials. And while there were several notable bullish calls over the weekend, most notably at Goldman where traders clashed over the fate of the market, one place where there was no change in the dour mood was Morgan Stanley whose strategist Michael Wilson said that the improving sentiment toward US equities is at odds with a backdrop of weakening economic data and earnings: “The question is when will equity indices price the current weakness in the leading data and the eventual weakness in the hard data?,” said the strategist, who ranked No. 1 in last year’s Institutional Investor survey. “We think it’s this calendar quarter.” Earnings were also a concern for JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka, who notes that the environment will be particularly challenging this year, with corporate pricing power starting to reverse, just as margins are near record-high in the US and in Europe. European stocks also opened higher as they looked to continue their solid start to the year but gains have since evaporated with the Stoxx 600 now trading flat. Tech, miners and real estate are the strongest performing sectors while chemicals and travel underperform. The Stoxx 600 index was steady, having risen nearly 7% this year, almost double the S&P 500’s gain. Meanwhile, the euro strengthened to the highest since April 2022. The single currency is up almost 2% this year against the greenback, after falling nearly 6% last year. “The market has decided recession risks were overdone for Europe and you can see that in the outperformance of European stocks and the euro,” Rabobank strategist Jane Foley said. Here are some of the biggest European movers on Monday: Intesa gains as much as 3.3% after Citi said the Italian lender remains adequately capitalized even after latest charges linked to EBA guidelines that will impact capital this year Atos rises as much as 6.2%, after French weekly Le Journal du Dimanche reported that engineering firm Astek was interested in buying a stake in Atos’ data and cybersecurity unit Evidian Boliden rises as much as 2.9% after Berenberg raised to buy from hold and lifted price target. The miner is well placed to benefit from the rally in commodity prices, Berenberg writes GTT rises after the French group acknowledged the suspension of a decision by the Korea Fair Trade Commission relating to its activities with Korean shipyards in relation to LNG carriers National Express shares jump after the public transport group announced its German rail subsidiary won a €1b contract to operate the RE1 and RE11 Rhein-Ruhr-Express lines until 2033 ISS shares rise as much as 3.3%, with Morgan Stanley saying the organic growth and free cash flow reported by the Danish facilities manager is ahead of prior expectations Symrise drops as much as 8.6% after a larger- than-anticipated margin miss. Peers Givaudan and Croda also fell DSM falls as much as 5.5% after the Dutch chemicals and ingredients group extended the acceptance period for shareholders to tender ordinary shares Juventus shares fall as much as 13% in Milan after authorities penalized the soccer team, with a cut in its point standing because of how it accounted for player transfers Informa shares fall on Monday after UBS downgrades to neutral from buy, saying the consensus has largely priced in a recovery in the events firm’s China business Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose with Japan leading gains as much of the region was closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, as prospects for slower Federal Reserve policy tightening lifted investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.4%, on track for its highest close since June 9, driven by gains in Tokyo-listed technology shares including Keyence and Tokyo Electron. Key share gauges also rose in India. Trading overall was light with markets shut in Greater China and a number of other countries. Asian equities have been outperforming global peers this year amid optimism over China’s reopening and its easing crackdown on large tech companies. While further moderation in Fed rate hikes should be another tailwind for the region, questions linger over the outlook for the global economy. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, one of the more hawkish officials at the US central bank, Friday joined other policymakers in backing another moderation in the size of rate increases when they next gather. “If the inflation rate drops as expected, and the Fed finally decides to stop raising interest rates, it would then be positive for stock prices in the long term, but we are probably not there yet,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. The MSCI Asia benchmark is up 7.7% so far in 2023, more than double the gain in the S&P 500 Index, and is trading above technical levels often seen as overbought. Japan’s Topix has underperformed with a rise of less than 3% amid expectations the nation’s central bank may move away from its ultra-easy monetary policy. Japanese equities rose, following US peers higher as comments from Federal Reserve officials calmed concerns over aggressive monetary tightening.  The Topix Index rose 1% to 1,945.38 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 1.3% to 26,906.04. Keyence contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.8%. Out of 2,161 stocks in the index, 1,832 rose and 263 fell, while 66 were unchanged. “The rebound of US Nasdaq had a positive influence on Japanese equities, as it cooled concerns over tech-related stocks,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. “While the stock market rallied on potential easing of monetary tightening by the Fed officials, it might be still early to be optimistic about the economic situation,” Sera said. Australian stocks ticked higher, extending their winning streak to four days. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.1% to close at 7,457.30. Energy and technology stocks contributed the most to the benchmark’s advance. Karoon was the top performer after reporting higher reserves at its Bauna oil project in Brazil. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 11,948.72 In FX, the diverging rate bets pressured the dollar, which stayed just off nine-month lows against a basket of peers. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped as much as 0.3% before paring, and the greenback weakened against all of its Group- of-10 peers apart from the yen. Scandinavian and Antipodean currencies were the best performers. Pressure on the greenback has increased after last week’s weak retail sales data and a slump in business equipment production reinforced the challenges for the world’s biggest economy. The euro rose as much as 0.7% to 1.0927, the highest since April 21, before paring. Options gauges however point to downside risks for the euro. The pound rose to a seven-month high of 1.2448. Gilts advanced, led by the front end of the curve The yen was sold in the Asia session and Japanese bond futures extended gains as the BOJ’s offer of five-year loans drew strong demand, spurring traders to cover their short positions. Institutional investors have turned bullish on the yen for the first time since June 2021 as speculation mounts over the future of the BOJ’s ultra-easy monetary policy In rates, Treasuries drift lower with the curve steeper and long-end yields cheaper by up to 2.5bp on the day. No strong catalyst for price action with S&P 500 futures little changed near top of Friday’s range. US 10-year yields trade just over 3.50%, cheaper by ~2bp vs Friday’s close with bunds and gilts slightly outperforming in the sector; front-end Treasuries steady, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s by ~1bp.US auctions resume Tuesday with $42b 2-year note sale, ahead of $43b 5-year and $35b 7-year notes Wednesday and Thursday. Euro-area bonds followed US Treasuries. Focus Monday will be on the host of ECB speakers including for hints on the direction of policy ahead of next week’s rate decision. US session is light on calendar events with Fed speakers in quiet period ahead of Feb. 1 policy announcement. In commodities, crude futures advance with WTI gaining 0.5% to trade near $82.00. G7 is considering two price caps for Russian oil products, one for expensive products such as diesel or gasoline and another for cheaper products e.g. fuel oil, via Politico citing EU diplomats. India is planning to lower gold import duty to prevent the increase in smuggling, according to Reuters sources. Spot gold has been waning from its USD 1,935.41/oz overnight peak, with traders citing profit-taking following the yellow metal’s recent run higher. LME Copper printed a +6month peak overnight given the positive demand picture and supply-side concerns regarding Peru. Bitcoin is supported on the session and resides at the top-end of a USD 22.94k-22.30k range, albeit it is yet to re-test the January 21st YTD peak of USD 23.35k. Today's calendar is relatively quiet with just the Leading index on  deck. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,987.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 453.10 MXAP up 0.5% to 167.79 MXAPJ up 0.2% to 551.49 Nikkei up 1.3% to 26,906.04 Topix up 1.0% to 1,945.38 Hang Seng Index up 1.8% to 22,044.65 Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,264.81 Sensex up 0.6% to 60,975.85 Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,457.27 Kospi up 0.6% to 2,395.26 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.18% Euro up 0.4% to $1.0902 Brent Futures up 0.5% to $88.07/bbl Brent Futures up 0.5% to $88.07/bbl Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,924.23 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.30% to 101.71 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Responding to massive state aid the US is providing for its green transition, European Council President Charles Michel is proposing steps to strengthen the bloc’s economies that would involve a new bond program to even out the different financial situations of EU member states The ECB should continue with half- point interest-rate increases at the next two meetings and the time to slow the pace of hikes is “still far away,” according to Governing Council member Klaas Knot ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said “there are grounds for significant increases” in the key interest rate in the winter and early spring, reiterating comments he’d made earlier in the week Japanese government representatives at the BOJ’s December policy meeting requested an urgent time out in a likely sign of their surprise at planned adjustments to the bank’s yield curve control program Some BOJ board members said the bank must communicate clearly that adjustments to the conduct of yield curve control aim to make easing more sustainable and aren’t a policy shift toward an exit, according to minutes of December policy meeting Australian central bank chief Philip Lowe’s prospects for an extension of his role are far from clear-cut, according to economists, with some highlighting political hurdles to his reappointment A more detailed recap of overnight news courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pacific stocks began the week with a positive bias but with gains capped amid mass closures across the region. ASX 200 was rangebound as weakness in the defensive sectors was counterbalanced by gains in energy and tech, in which the latter took impetus from last Friday’s outperformance in the Nasdaq after Netflix’s strong subscriber numbers and Google’s announcement to cut its workforce by 12,000. Nikkei 225 was the biggest gainer and rose above 26,900 to print a fresh monthly high where it then met some resistance, while overnight newsflow was extremely light and China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam are all closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. Top Asian News China's box office film sales totalled CNY 1.34bln on the first day of the Lunar New Year holiday (2022 1.45bln YY; 2021 1.67bln YY), via SCMP. China CDC chief epidemiologist said the possibility of a large-scale rebound of a COVID outbreak during the next two or three months is very small as 80% of China’s population has already been infected, according to Reuters. Furthermore, China reported that COVID-19 deaths in the week leading to the Lunar New Year topped 12,600. Japanese PM Kishida said will pick the new BoJ Governor by taking the economic situation in April into account and it is too soon to say if there is a need to change the government-BoJ accord, according to Reuters. It was also separately reported that PM Kishida said the government will nominate the new BoJ Governor in February. BoJ December meeting minutes stated the central bank will add some easing if necessary and several members said the effect of powerful monetary easing will continue even if the BoJ widens the yield target band. Furthermore, a few members said the BoJ must clearly explain that widening of the yield band is not a move eyeing the exit from ultra-loose policy, while a member said the BoJ must conduct a review of its policy framework sometime in the future. New Zealand’s ruling Labour Party voted to choose Chris Hipkins as the new PM and Carmel Sepuloni was named as the Deputy PM, while incoming PM Hipkins stated that Finance Minister Robertson indicated that he wants to continue in the role, according to Reuters. European bourses are modestly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, amid a relatively quiet start to the week given the mass APAC closures from the Lunar New Year holiday. Sectors have a similar mild positive bias with Tech and Basic Resources the marginal outperformers. Stateside, futures are essentially unchanged, with the ES capped by 4k and the Fed blackout period underway going into the second busiest week of earnings this season. Banks including Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan (JPM) are said to be planning payment wallets to compete with the likes of PayPal (PYPL) and Apple Pay (AAPL), according to WSJ. Top European News UK electricity network operator National Grid had emergency coal-fired plants warm up amid expectations of tight supply and increased demand due to cold weather, while it will pay households to use less power during early Monday evening, according to FT. UK has started a post-Brexit review of EU's investor fund regulations amid concerns that Europe is not acting fast enough on appropriate safeguards, according to FT. Ireland’s Foreign Affairs Minister has described ongoing NI Protocol talks as "very challenging", according to BBC's Parker; “We would hope that those negotiations would be successful but they are very challenging.” French President Macron said Germany is to join the new hydrogen pipeline project between Spain and France, according to Reuters. Fitch affirmed Ireland at AAA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Norway at AAA; Outlook Stable, while it affirmed Hungary at BBB; Outlook Cut to Negative from Stable. ECB ECB’s Knot said to expect the ECB to hike by 50bps in February and March, followed by more steps in May and June, according to Reuters. ECB's Nagel says ECB is to return inflation to target without causing a recession, via Econostream; thinks this will be achieved by the end of 2024/25.   ECB's Villeroy said the ECB will continue to raise rates, but possibly at a slightly slower pace than in recent months, but will do so to a level necessary to keep inflation under control, via Econostream. FX The DXY has eased further to the benefit of most peers across the board as the Fed blackout period commences with a 25bp hike almost entirely priced in. AUD and NZD are among the outperformers ahead of inflation data, with AUD/USD surpassing 0.70 and NZD/USD testing 0.65. EUR continues to benefit from hawkish ECB guidance, EUR/USD above 1.09 at best, while JPY is the relative laggard after dovish December minutes. CHF gleans modest support from Credit Suisse lifting its SNB forecast for March to 50bp vs prev. 25bp while the CAD is relatively steady pre-data/Wednesday's BoC. Brazil and Argentina aim for greater economic integration and decided to advance discussions regarding a common South American currency that could be used for financial and commercial flows, according to an article jointly penned by the countries' leaders. Fixed Income Hawkish ECB vibes continue to hold sway as sellers fade upticks in debt, Bunds sub-138.00, Gilts under 104.00 after brief bounces to 138.44 and 104.63 respectively. T-notes a bit more resilient as Fed hawk Waller joins 25bp hike advocates for February's FOMC, 10 year bond within 115-07/114-30 range vs last Friday's 115-02 close Commodities Crude benchmarks are somewhat choppy in contained ranges of circa. USD 1/bbl given the mass APAC closures; though, prices overall are underpinned by a rosier demand picture. Kuwait temporarily suspended operations at three ports on Sunday due to bad weather, according to state news agency KUNA. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said western countries are working on price caps for Russian refined petroleum products to ensure the continued flow of diesel but added it is complicated and there is a possibility that things may not go to plan, according to Reuters. G7 is considering two price caps for Russian oil products, one for expensive products such as diesel or gasoline and another for cheaper products e.g. fuel oil, via Politico citing EU diplomats. EU Securities Watchdog ESMA says EU gas price cap could impact the orderly functioning of markets and impact financial stability, according to a draft report cited by Reuters. Japanese insurers will raise insurance by about 80% on ships carrying LNG in Russian waters, according to Nikkei. Netherlands seeks to close the Groningen gas field this year which is the largest in Europe and earthquake-prone, while an official noted that it was very dangerous to keep operating the field and that they aim to shut it by October 1st but would wait to see if there is a shortage of gas after the winter, according to FT. India is planning to lower gold import duty to prevent the increase in smuggling, according to Reuters sources. Spot gold has been waning from its USD 1,935.41/oz overnight peak, with traders citing profit-taking following the yellow metal’s recent run higher. LME Copper printed a +6month peak overnight given the positive demand picture and supply-side concerns regarding Peru. Geopolitics Joint French-German statement following a summit between French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz stated they will support and assist Ukraine for as long as necessary and they support efforts to prosecute perpetrators of war crimes, according to Reuters. Furthermore, French President Macron commented at the summit that he doesn’t rule out sending Leclerc tanks to Ukraine and that training time needs to be taken into account, while he added that sending tanks should not endanger France’s own security. German Defence Minister Pistorius said he thinks there will be a decision soon regarding tanks for Ukraine whichever way it may fall, while it was also reported that German Foreign Minister Baerbock said Germany would not stand in the way if Poland sends Leopard tanks to Ukraine, according to Reuters and French television LCI. A Russian warship armed with hypersonic missiles will participate in joint naval exercises with China and South Africa in February, according to Reuters. Russian Kremlin says that there have been no announcements yet on whether President Putin will run for another term in office in 2024. EU ministers have agreed a new sanctions package against Iran, according to the Swedish EU Presidency. US Event Calendar 10:00: Dec. Leading Index, est. -0.7%, prior -1.0% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Morning from an exceptionally cold and misty England. I've been feeling dreadful after a virus struck me down on Friday. I've had three very bad colds since the end of November, an ear infection, and now a virus that for the first time in this spell has given me a fever! My wife has had a similar path over the last two months and the kids have all had strep A. The difference is that within 2-3 days they bounced back completely whereas us old timers can't get a break this winter and have to look after their hyperactivity at the weekends while we lie on the sofa feeling sorry for ourselves. We've done more covid tests as a family recently than we needed to do throughout the entire pandemic. All negative! I can only assume that our immune systems had a break for 2 plus years around covid and are now taking a winter to rev back up! We'll get the latest health check on global growth momentum this week amid releases of Q4 US GDP (Thursday) and global PMI numbers (tomorrow). US leading indicators today will also be of note as we are around levels only previously associated with recessions. In addition, PCE, personal spending (both Friday) and durable goods orders (Thursday) will also be released. Key central bank events will include the BoC decision, and Summary of Opinions and minutes from the BoJ's shock December meeting (all Wednesday). In earnings, all eyes will be on Microsoft (tomorrow), Tesla and ASML (both Wednesday), amongst others. The Fed are now in their blackout period so the usual mini vol around Fed speakers won't be there this week. However, there are quite a few growth signposts to engage markets. We'll expand upon a few of the key upcoming events now. It's not a top tier release but today's US leading indicators (consensus -0.7% vs -1.0% last month and likely around -5.5% YoY) will likely remain at levels only previously associated with recessions. Last month the Conference Board, who publish this series, said the following: “Only stock prices contributed positively to the US LEI in November. Labor market, manufacturing, and housing indicators all weakened—reflecting serious headwinds to economic growth… The US LEI suggests the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle is curtailing aspects of economic activity, especially housing. As a result, we project a US recession is likely to start around the beginning of 2023 and last through mid-year.” This is interesting as we felt when we did our 2023 outlooks we were the opposite way round to consensus. We expected a good start for risk assets this year but a very bad end to the year on our long-standing H2 23 recession call. To be honest, the US data has generally been poorer than anticipated this year so far which is fascinating as markets are rallying hard. We'll get a good read on global growth momentum with tomorrow's global flash PMIs which will take into account China’s reopening and falling gas prices. Then we'll see how growth was faring going into this year with Q4 US GDP on Thursday. Our economists expect +3.2% annualised (consensus +2.7%). Interestingly they expect +1.8% for Q1 with H2 being where the US recession hits. Consensus on Bloomberg is around 0% for Q1 so that's a potential battle ground once actual hard data comes through. Other notable data releases on Thursday include durable goods orders, new home sales, and the Chicago Fed national activity index. All will be closely watched for signs of weakness seen in the data so far this month. Friday’s core PCE release will occupy the Fed's minds on their blackout period ahead of next week's FOMC. Our economists don't expect the same declines as recently seen in CPI as some of the stronger components in PPI last week are better correlated to PCE components. They expect a +0.4% monthly gain in the core PCE price index. With that Fed blackout, ECB speakers will take center stage, especially today with Lagarde being the highlight. Dutch CB chief Knot continued his recent hawkish rhetoric over the weekend suggesting that “We made a step down in December from 75 to 50 basis points — that will be the pace for a multiple number of meetings… So that means at least the two in February and March.” So that will challenge the Euro rates bulls after the recent rally. We saw a big reversal from the yield lows (+20bps on 10yr Bunds) on Thursday (and into Friday) after Lagarde's hawkish Davos commentary. Knot is also on the agenda again tomorrow. You'll see the full list of speakers in the day-by-day week ahead at the end. Back across the pond, the BoC are expected to hike 25bps on Wednesday. A few weeks ago many were expecting a pause but a recent stretch of firm data has moved the consensus back in favour of a hike. Over in Asia, key data releases for Japan will include the aforementioned PMIs and the Tokyo CPI (Thursday). Aside from the BoJ's Summary of Opinions for the January meeting, the minutes of the December meeting will also be released and our economists highlight the importance of analysing how the decision to double the yield curve control range was reached. Elsewhere in the region, the Lunar holidays will curtail a lot of the week's activity with many bourses shut until midweek with China shut all week. In corporate earnings, Microsoft will kick off the reporting season for Big Tech tomorrow, with the rest of the group reporting next week. All eyes will be on Tesla post-market on Wednesday ahead of earnings from traditional automakers next week as investors try to grasp trends for EV demand. Other earnings highlights are in the calendar at the end. This morning in Asia many major equity markets are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday with, as mentioned, mainland Chinese markets remaining shut until January 30. Amid a subdued trading, the Nikkei (+1.21%) is the standout performer, mirroring Friday’s strong finish on Wall Street after a broad rally in the US tech stocks. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.12%) is also trading in positive territory in early trading. In overnight trading, US equity futures tied to the S&P 500 (-0.09%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.09%) are just below flat ahead of the start of a busy week of earnings. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr USTs (-1.28bps) edged lower to trade at 3.47% as we go to press. Yields on 10yr Japanese Government Bonds (0.38%) remained below the BoJ’s 0.5% ceiling after the central bank said it will provide 1trn yen of collateralised loans for banks as it attempts to keep rates from rising. In the FX market, the dollar index (-0.24%) declined for the fourth consecutive day to trade at 101.78 amid concerns over US economic growth. Recapping last week now. The strong start to the year for risk assets took a bit of a pause mid-week on heightened US recession risks, only to close out strongly again. The S&P 500 rose sharply on Friday (+1.89%) to leave the S&P 500 'only' down -0.66% on the week. Tech stocks led the rally on Friday with the NASDAQ up +2.66% (up +0.55% on the week), with positively received earnings releases from the likes of Netflix, and news of cost reduction at Google, helping. The Stoxx 600 rallied +0.37% on Friday but was fairly flat (-0.09%) on the week. Bonds also saw decent sized swings on the week with the 10yr Treasury yield +8.7bps to 3.48% on Friday, their largest move up since mid-December, but still down -2.5bps for the week but having traded as low as 3.32% on Wednesday. Over in Europe, there was a similar sell-off on Friday in fixed income as the market had to face a hawkish end to the week from the ECB speakers (especially Lagarde). 10yr bunds rose +11.2bps on Friday to 2.177%, the largest increase since the end of December, although for the week as a whole they were up just +0.9bps. Yields on 10yr OATs (+14.0bp) and BTPs (+21.8bps) also increased significantly on Friday but were down -0.9bps and -1.8bps for the week respectively. Commodities again had a decent week following continued optimism surrounding China’s reopening. WTI crude was up +1.82% over the week to $81.31/bbl (+1.22% on Friday), its highest closing level since mid-November. Brent crude also rallied over the week, up +2.476% (+1.71% on Friday). Tyler Durden Mon, 01/23/2023 - 08:02.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJan 23rd, 2023

Tech"s ultimate nepo babies: Meet the Drapers, the first family of Silicon Valley

The billionaire Tim Draper and his father have been fixtures of the VC circuit for decades after Tim's grandfather helped establish the space. Tim Draper and his family members have been venture-capital icons for decades.Danny Moloshok/Reuters. The billionaire Tim Draper is part of a lineage often lauded as Silicon Valley's premier VC family. His grandfather founded the VC firm Draper, Gaither, and Anderson. Tim's children, three of whom carry on the VC torch, could be deemed tech's ultimate nepo babies. Celebrities bristling about being called "nepo babies" could learn from William Henry Draper III, one of Silicon Valley's premier venture capitalists who has recognized his family's close ties and their influence on the family's successes."Networks are critical to the successful venture capitalist," Draper, who cofounded elite investment projects like Sutter Hill Ventures, wrote in his 2012 semi-autobiographical book, "The Startup Game."In other words, the adage: It's all about who you know. Anyone who has hustled and pounded the pavement to break into a competitive field understands there's an elusive alchemy to how connections can form and the doors they open.As far as powerful professional networks go, it's hard to top the Draper family tree. Draper's venture-capital career began in the 1950s at his father's own trailblazing firm, Draper, Gaither, and Anderson, an early entrant in a new field. He wrote that he joined it, in part, for the "unique opportunity to learn from a master." Striking out with his peers in the next decade, he went on to invest in early IT-infrastructure companies including Kasper Instruments.He paid it forward to his son, Tim Draper, who made his own early VC investments in the '80s using a family vehicle that was then called Draper Associates, according to "The Startup Game."During the dot-com era, the father and son would hold court at the Stanford-adjacent social haunts where the elder Draper connected Tim — a Stanford alumnus — with people like Yahoo's cofounder Jerry Yang. (Draper wrote that he even attended the Yahoo pitch meeting "on the chance that I could be of help to Tim," though the deal eventually went to Sequoia.)With his own ventures, Tim went on to back the likes of Hotmail, Skype, Coinbase, and, less fortuitously, Theranos, the blood-testing startup founded by his family friend Elizabeth Holmes."Meet the Drapers," the game show that Tim cocreated and launched in 2017, positions the family as enduring industry power players. On the show, Draper, Tim, and Draper's daughter Polly Draper, along with other family members who drop by as "guest judges," field pitches from founders competing for Tim's $1 million investment check. The show ran internationally on channels including Sony Entertainment Television.As evidenced on the series, the family's scions tend to wear their legacy as a badge of honor. Tim's children Jesse Draper, who leads Halogen VC, and Adam Draper, who is behind Boost VC, are even identified as "4th generation venture capitalists" in their public bios.And the Draper empire extends beyond tech investing. Tim and his children were also in the actor-producer Polly's Nickelodeon show, "The Naked Brothers Band." Polly's son Alex Wolff is a Hollywood rising star you might know from hits like the 2018 horror film "Hereditary."All of this is to say that the Drapers have benefited from their last name and fall into the category of "nepo babies," a term made popular by a New York Magazine story about nepotism in the insular world of Hollywood. Family can play just as big a role in the tech world. Even in a book promoting grind, tenacity, and savvy risk-taking as elements of successful investing, Draper acknowledged it: "I was lucky to have been born to a great father."Meet the Draper family, the ultimate tech nepo babies and Silicon Valley royalty.Tim Draper Tim is worth $1.2 billion, according to Forbes' estimate.Pedro Fiúza/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesTim, who followed in his father's footsteps as a young adult after getting in some early practice with his family investing firm, cofounded the blockbuster venture firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson in 1985, when he was in his early 20s. DFJ had more than 900 investments, according to PitchBook, including in companies such as Tesla and Baidu. DFJ's founding partners have all left, and the firm became known as Threshold Ventures in 2019, Axios reported at the time.A gregarious presence on his show, "Meet the Drapers," Tim has an easy laugh and sports his signature tie polka-dotted with the bitcoin symbol.With a $1.2 billion net worth, according to Forbes' estimate, his reach is far — he bought an island in Tanzania, where he's invested in a hotel — and sometimes personal. In addition to creating and hosting a show featuring members of his family, he's credited as an advisor for his daughter Jesse's firm, Halogen Ventures, and as a producer on his sister's Nickelodeon show, in which he played the character Principal Schmoke. Jesse Draper Jesse Draper founded Halogen Ventures, which counts her father as an advisor.Jesse DraperJesse announced herself on the tech scene in the late 2000s with her web series, "The Valley Girl Show," which featured quirky interviews with entrepreneurs in Tim's circle. Some notable guests included then-Google CEO Eric Schmidt (who wrote the foreword for her grandfather's book), Elon Musk, and Stephen Jurvetson, who cofounded DFJ with Jesse's father. Tim helped arrange some early interviews, according to a Fast Company feature on the family in 2012.Jesse's firm, Halogen Ventures, which she launched in 2015 in her late 20s, was the culmination of what she described as an indirect path to VC-hood."I'm the weirdest VC story, I think, of all time," she said in a March episode of the "Startup Renegades" podcast.Jesse attended film school at the University of California, Los Angeles, where she also took business courses and focused first on her acting career. She was eventually put off by the objectification she observed at auditions, she said on the podcast episode, and switched gears to do "Valley Girl," which went on to become a TV show carried by a CBS-linked station. That put her on a path to investing, she said, because as the show's host, she was hearing more from new founders looking to get noticed. She'd alert investors in her circle to those who showed potential, she said on "Startup Renegades.""Sometimes, I'd write them a tiny check, and some of those deals did really well for me," she added.That helped lay the foundation for what later became Halogen, she said. Halogen has invested in dozens of brands targeted at women like the Instagram beauty darling Live Tinted and the investment company Ellevest. It lists her father as an advisor.Adam DraperAdam Draper followed in his father's footsteps, founding Boost VC in 2012.Michael Macor/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty ImagesAdam's LinkedIn bio indicates that as a college undergrad, he cofounded Xpert Financial in 2009.The Fast Company feature said Tim facilitated Adam's inclusion into the company's founding "in a single afternoon" when Tim helped Jesse's old classmate Thomas Foley fine-tune the idea. Xpert Financial, a digital marketplace to connect private companies with investors, is no longer in business, according to PitchBook.     In 2012, Adam founded Boost VC, which has made over 400 investments in a variety of tech and crypto companies, according to PitchBook. Like his father, Adam has invested in the crypto exchange Coinbase, according to the Boost VC website.Billy DraperIn 2016, Billy Draper was on Forbes' "30 Under 30" list as a 26-year-old in the venture-capital category. In his Forbes write-up, he was credited with being a "full-time investor since June 2014."He worked at firms like Meta and his father's Draper Associates (a separate investing firm that evolved alongside Draper Fisher Jurvetson) after studying film at UCLA like his sister, according to his LinkedIn bio. He's gone on to found his own firm, Path VC, which invests in very-early-stage companies, according to the firm's bio. He's invested alongside his father in companies like Robinhood, according to Draper Associate's website. Eleanor DraperElle Draper, who has the smallest online presence of the Draper children, founded a scrunchie brand.Sean Zanni/Patrick McMullan via Getty ImagesEleanor Draper has the smallest visible online presence out of her siblings. Her LinkedIn bio indicates she received training at institutions including Draper University, an "entrepreneurship program" founded by Tim, according to its website. The more than monthlong program costs $12,000 to attend, according to its website.She used that training in 2018 to launch a scrunchie company called Lemonelle, according to her LinkedIn.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytJan 23rd, 2023

79 cute gift ideas for your girlfriend, whether it"s Valentine"s Day or her birthday

We rounded up 79 unique, thoughtful, and romantic gifts to give your girlfriend, from keepsake jewelry to useful tech and fitness accessories. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Urban Outfitters/CatbirdWhether it's for her birthday, Valentine's Day, or just because, your girlfriend deserves a great gift. You can take a lot of different routes: A stylish accessory she'll wear all the time, a practical gift she doesn't know she needs, a romantic trinket she'll treasure for years to come…the list goes on.Whatever your budget and the occasion, we've come up with 79 gifts that any type of girlfriend is sure to appreciate. From a luxurious blanket for the homebody to a great pair of headphones for the audiophile, the ideas below run the gamut.An affordable luxury watchBredaBreda Esther Square Metal WatchBreda makes luxury watches that are usually just under or slightly over the $200 price range, and we love how they look for the price. This model comes in an 18K gold-plated case and stainless steel band.A hot sauce subscriptionFuego BoxFuego Box SubscriptionSpice things up with this hot sauce subscription, which delivers one or three hot sauces to your girlfriend's door every month. There's even an extra-hot version if her heat tolerance is off the charts.A fancy candleOtherlandOtherland CandleOtherland makes some of our favorite luxury candles, and for $36 a pop, they offer unique scent combos in a really beautiful, reusable container. You can also mix-and-match your own gift sets or shop exclusive collections.A customizable leather tote she'll use for yearsCuyanaCuyana System ToteShe'll happily replace her canvas tote for this sleek, sturdy leather one from Cuyana. It comes in a few neutral shades and can be customized with a crossbody strap or matching laptop case.A mug that always stays warmEmberEmber Mug 2If your girlfriend takes forever to sip their tea or coffee, get them this ingenious mug that keeps their beverage for as long as it takes for them to drink it all. It's also app-controlled, so they can use their phone to find the right temperature and presets.An annual pass to see US National ParksREIAmerica the Beautiful Pass 2023/2024If your girlfriend loves experiential gifts, look no further than this annual pass to most of the US National Parks. It accommodates a car of up to four people, so you can plan a trip with friends or family, too.More modern cocktail glassesAnthropologieAnthropologie Ramona Coupe Glasses (Set of 4)For the girlfriend who loves hosting, get them these modern coupe glasses they'll get compliments on every time they have people over (which will be a lot more often now).An instant camera she can also use with BluetoothAmazonPolaroid OneStep+ White (9015) Bluetooth Connected Instant Film CameraFor the girlfriend who loves snapping pics, give her the option of either using the camera or connecting her phone and directly printing from her camera roll. It also comes with two lenses — standard and portrait — so she'll never miss her shot.UGG-like boots for half the priceQuinceQuince Australian Shearling Mini BootsUGG-style boots have been making a comeback, and these mini boots offer the same warmth, quality, and style for a fraction of the price of real UGGs.A dainty nameplate necklaceCatbirdCatbird Tiniest Name NecklaceNameplate necklaces consistently stay in style, so this piece is bound to become an everyday staple. You can pick her name, nickname, or even just a place she loves.A quirky planterAnthropologieAnthropologie Grecian Bust PotIf you got them new flowers, why not pair with a fun thing to hold them in? This Grecian bust pot is the perfect quirky (yet still elegant) touch for their home.A board game version of WordleThe popular online puzzle Wordle is being reimagined as a board game.Hasbro/The New York TimesWordle: The Party GameIf your girlfriend sends you her Wordle score every day, she'll be thrilled with the physical board game version. You can play against each other or have up to four people racing against the clock to guess the word first.A bestselling lip maskAmazonLaneige Lip Sleeping MaskIf your partner always complains of chapped lips (especially in the winter), this bestselling lip mask is a great, low-key gift that will leave their lips feeling smooth and nourished come morning. A card game to deepen personal connectionsUrban OutfittersWe're Not Really Strangers Card GameThis card game, from the popular Instagram account We're Not Really Strangers, is designed to enhance connections between people with different levels: perceptions, connection, and reflection. Not only is it a card game you haven't played before, but it's also a thoughtful activity you can enjoy with your girlfriend.A cookbook for movie night dinnersUncommon Goods"Eat What You Watch Cookbook" by Andrew ReaDinner and a movie: a classic pairing. Inspire future date nights with the "Eat What You Watch Cookbook." It has 41 as-seen-on-the-big-screen recipes — think hazelnut gelato from "Roman Holiday" and double-decker New York-style pizza inspired by "Saturday Night Fever" that you can prepare together for movie night.A customized map of her favorite placeGrafomapGrafomap Custom MapGrafomap lets you design custom maps of anywhere in the world — like the first place you met, the best trip you ever took together, or the hometown she couldn't wait to show you. It's unique, thoughtful, and pretty inexpensive.  You can find our full review here.A pack of highly-rated sheet masksAmazonDermal Sheet Mask Set (39-Pack)Grab 39 sheet masks to make it easier for your girlfriend to have a frequent and well-deserved "treat yourself" day. These are highly rated and have both vitamin E and collagen included for healthy, happy skin.   Silky, breathable leggingsEverlaneEverlane Perform LeggingsEverlane's Perform Leggings are some of our all-time favorites — they're breathable and silky, like a slightly less expensive version of Alo leggings. You can read a full review of the Everlane Perform Leggings and see pictures of them here.A sweet keepsake bookUncommon GoodsKnock Knock "What I Love About You by Me" BookIf your girlfriend has a sentimental side, this fill-in-the-blank book will make her melt. It's filled with over 110 pages of prompts where you can share all of the special, silly things you love about her. A large print of a favorite memoryArtifact UprisingArtifact Uprising Large Format PrintsArtifact Uprising makes luxury prints at accessible prices — and they make especially thoughtful gifts that look like they should cost much more. Get one of their favorite photos printed on archival fine art paper for $20 and up, or thoughtful cards for as little as $1.45 per custom card. You can also make a color series photo book for $22, a set of prints for $9, and a personalized calendar on a handcrafted wood clipboard for $30.A hair towel that reduces damage and cuts drying time by 50%AquisAquis Rapid Dry Lisse Hair TowelAquis' cult-favorite hair towels can cut the amount of time it takes for her hair to dry in half — a claim we're happy to report holds up. The proprietary fabric also means there's less damage to wet hair while it dries. A pass to get into a bunch of boutique fitness classesClasspassClassPass Gift CardBoutique fitness classes are expensive, which can make trying new workouts — either for variety or to figure out what we like — less appealing. ClassPass solves both issues. It's relatively affordable, and members can access a neverending catalog of great workouts with small class sizes. If your partner is getting back into fitness after over a year of at-home workouts, we'd highly recommend a gift card here for whenever they're ready to use it.A lamp that melts candles without lighting themCrystal Cox/Insiderluzdiosa Candle Warmer LampAside from looking cute, this TikTok-famous lamp warms candles up without lighting them. It helps your girlfriend enjoy her candles' scents whenever she wants without worrying about smoke or accidentally forgetting to put them out.An expertly designed plannerCrystal Cox/InsiderBestSelf Co. Self JournalThe Self Journal is an undated, 13-week planner that's designed for daily use and quarterly planning. It helps its owner break projects and goals into manageable chunks. We love it.If she's working towards a big goal, this could be a really thoughtful resource — especially if it's the kind of goal you can't help her achieve otherwise.Delicious sweets from a famous NYC bakeryMilk BarMilk Bar TreatsIf your girlfriend has a sweet tooth, send her Milk Bar — the company delivers its iconic and decadent cakes, cookies, and truffles to her doorstep.A soothing bath salt setMaudeMaude Tub Kit No. 3If you love your girlfriend but hate to see her burn out, you can treat her to this luxe bath set, which comes with two types of soaking salts and a coconut milk bath. You can choose from three different scent profiles — this one has notes of eucalyptus, sandalwood, cassis, and Haitian vetiver.The internet's favorite olive oilBrightlandBrightland Awake Olive OilBrightland's olive oils make great gifts for cooks and anyone else who loves to entertain. The white bottles protect the EVOO from light damage and look nice displayed on a countertop. Find a full review here. A framed keepsake of a favorite memoryFramebridgeFramebridge Framed Photo Framebridge makes custom framing a bit more affordable. You can print or paint something on your own and have it framed, or have them print and frame it, and you can take advantage of the team of designers for help deciding what frame to get. The best socks she'll ever wearBombasBombas Women's Performance Running Ankle Sock 3-PackBombas makes the best socks we've ever tried, and they're a gift we find ourselves giving every year to loved ones. They're lightweight, moisture-wicking, and built to circumvent annoyances like uncomfortable seams and heel slipping.A stunning puzzle that doubles as decorPiecework PuzzlesPiecework Puzzles Garden Party PuzzlePiecework makes beautiful puzzles out of vibrant, creative photos — so much so that when you're finally done with them, your girlfriend will probably want to glue it all together and hang it up.A 215-piece art kit for creative projectsAmazonArt 101 215-Piece Wood Art SetIf your girlfriend loves to create art, this 215-Piece art kit includes everything she'll need for projects: Crayons, colored pencils, oil pastels, fine line markers, watercolor cakes, and acrylic paint.Her favorite specialty food straight from the sourceGoldbelly/InstagramGolbelly Restaurant Meal KitsGoldbelly makes it possible to satisfy your girlfriend's most specific and nostalgic cravings no matter where they live in the US — a cheesecake from Junior's, deep dish pizza from Lou Malnati, and more. Browse the iconic gifts section for inspiration. A weighted blanket for better restAmazonYnM Weighted BlanketWeighted blankets help create more restful sleep by "grounding" the body, and YnM makes some of the most popular and affordable weighted blankets on the internet. There are multiple sizes and weights for the ideal fit and width (they recommend picking whichever is about 10% of your body weight), and the segmented design allows you to move around without displacing all the weighted beads inside. A mug for hot and cold drinksHydro FlaskHydro Flask 12 oz. Coffee MugThis mug is a common desk companion for the Insider Reviews team. The 12-ounce coffee mug has the company's proprietary TempShield insulation that made its water bottles famous. This mug will keep hot drinks hot for up to six hours, and cold drinks cold up to 24 hours. Read our full review of it here.Fun, matching underwearMeUndiesMeUndies Matching SetGet yourself and your girlfriend festive matching underwear — which also happen to be some of the most comfortable pairs we've ever found. MeUndies gives you the option to create your own personalized set — two styles listed for women, two styles listed for men, a mix, and whichever length or cut you and your partner prefer. Personalized cartoon couple mugsUncommon GoodsUncommon Goods Personalized Family MugsThese cute mugs can be personalized for what you're like as a couple, making for a special weekend morning coffee routine or just a nice reminder in the kitchen cabinet. On the back, you can add a family name and the year the couple was established if you'd like. A satin-lined beanieAndrea Bossi/InsiderKink and Coil Satin-Lined Beanie with Removable PompomMost people with naturally curly hair avoid wearing hats to reduce frizz, but Kink and Coil's satin-lined beanie solves that issue. Just like a silk pillowcase or a bonnet, the inside of the beanie is designed to protect your hair from frizz and damage. On top of that, the pom-pom can be removed, if she'd prefer to wear the hat without it.We spoke with a trichologist to learn more about how satin- and silk-lined beanies can benefit anyone with curly or high-porosity hair. A monthly book subscriptionBook of the Month/InstagramBook of the Month 3-Month MembershipIf she's a bookworm, Book of the Month is an especially thoughtful and unique gift — it's a book club that has been around since 1926, and it's credited with discovering some of the most beloved books of all time ("Gone with the Wind" and "Catcher in the Rye" to name a couple). If you gift her a subscription, she'll receive a hardcover book delivered to her door once a month. Books are selected by a team of experts and celebrity guest judges.A stylish leather makeup pouchDagne DoverDagne Dover Hunter Toiletry BagDagne Dover is quickly becoming one of the best women's handbag companies to know, and its toiletry pouches are a great and relatively affordable gift. The small size holds a handful of go-to toiletries, and the large should have enough space for all of the grooming essentials.The fuzziest, comfiest throw blanketAnthropologieAnthropologie Sophie Faux Fur Throw BlanketWith colder weather coming up, your partner will get a lot of good use out of this ultra warm, fuzzy blanket. It's perfect for those nights spent curled up on the couch watching movies together.A custom phone case of her petWest & WillowWest & Willow Custom Pet Portrait Phone CaseIf your girlfriend loves her dog or cat more than anything, this sleek custom portrait of their pet printed on an iPhone case will absolutely floor them. It's perfect for anyone who wants any excuse to look at their furry friend even more.A pasta maker you can use togetherWilliams SonomaImperia Pasta MachineBring the pasta maker and the fixings to make a delicious meal together. It's relatively easy to get the hang of, and you can enjoy quality time with the bonus of incredible ravioli or fettuccine on the other end of it. A custom birth chart bookBirthdate Co.Birthdate Co. Birthdate BookIf your girlfriend happens to be extremely into astrology (like, consistently asks for your exact time and location of birth so she can compare charts), surprise her with this thorough birth chart book. It comes bound in a hardcover book with beautiful illustrations that tell her zodiac story. The only caveat is you'll need to know when and where she was born, so you might need to sneakily text some friends and family first!An 8-in-1 pan that helps declutter her homeOur PlaceOur Place Always PanThe Always Pan from startup Our Place is a frying pan, saute pan, steamer, skillet, saucier, saucepan, non-stick pan, spatula, and spoon rest in the space of a single pan. In other words, a clever generalist that's extremely convenient for small spaces or minimalist cooks. You can read our review here.A beautiful bouquetUrban StemsUrban Stems BouquetSend flowers to her doorstep. We're fans of UrbanStems; Its bouquets are one of the best things we've ever tested. If you're looking for something that won't be gone after a couple of weeks, you'll also find options for potted plants and low-maintenance, decor-friendly dried bouquets.An elaborate charcuterie boardUncommon GoodsCompact Swivel Cheese & Tapas BoardFor the girlfriend who loves entertaining, help them live their biggest hosting dreams with this cheese and charcuterie board. With fold-out sections and cheese knives included, it has everything to create a truly stellar spread. Plus, for an added $10, you can get it personalized.A versatile exercise dressOutdoor VoicesOutdoor Voices The Exercise DressGiven the popularity of the Exercise Dress, we wouldn't be surprised if this was on your girlfriend's wish list. The Exercise Dress is comfortable, versatile, and cute — which has made it a cult-favorite item. If she's a fan of dresses, Outdoor Voices, or clothes she can wear all day long, this may be a good option. A tea subscriptionAtlas Tea ClubAtlas Tea Club SubscriptionThis subscription sends your girlfriend single-origin teas from the best tea-growing regions in the world for six months. She'll get two delicious options sent to her home each month.A bottle of Glossier perfumeGlossierGlossier You PerfumeGift your girl another opportunity to indulge in her personal beauty with this unique perfume. It has notes of pink pepper, woodsy ambrette seeds, and fresh iris — but also produces a scent unique to the wearer, making it the ultimate personal fragrance.A Dutch oven to elevate their bread gameLodgeLodge Enameled Cast Iron Dutch OvenDid your girlfriend get into baking bread and, miraculously, stay committed to it? If so, a really nice Dutch oven can help elevate her experience. You can get something great for under $100, or you can splurge on a beautiful Le Creuset. Other meaningful upgrades include a cooling rack, according to the famous baker Apollonia Poilâne.A gift card to a popular wine subscription clubWincWinc Gift SubscriptionWinc is a personalized wine club — and we think it's the best one you can belong to overall. Members take a wine palate profile quiz and then choose from the personalized wine suggestions. Each bottle has extensive tasting notes and serving recommendations online, and makes it easy to discover similar bottles. Gift her a Winc gift card, and she can take a wine palate profile quiz and get started with her own customized suggestions. A video message from someone she lovesCameoCameo Video MessageWhether it's your girlfriend's favorite actor, comedian, or athlete, you're likely to find someone she admires on Cameo. Cameo allows celebrities to send custom video messages to recipients for nearly any occasion, and a personalized video is a gift that she'll never forget. Note: While Cameo prices really range, many of the popular celebs cost over $50.A sleek fitness tracker with heart rate monitoringFitbitFitbit Inspire 2Fitbit's affordable Inspire 2 tracker has no shortage of useful features to keep someone informed about their physical activity — tracking calorie burn, resting heart rate, and heart rate zones.The comfiest sneakersAllbirdsAllbirds Women's Wool RunnersThe classic Wool Runners make a great gift for the uninitiated, though we'd also highly recommend the brand's casual cup sole Wool Piper for everyday wear if that's more your partner's style. You can find our full review of the Runners here, and the Wool Pipers here.A monogrammed jewelry caseCuyanaCuyana Leather Jewelry CaseKeeping track of tiny and delicate jewelry is difficult — but jewelry cases are a pretty and useful solution. This is a thoughtful and personalized gift, especially if you've gotten your girlfriend jewelry in the past, or plan to in the future. It's made from premium leather, comes in many colors, and can be monogrammed with her initials. Cuyana is a cool leather bag startup she may have already heard of. A small skincare tool that packs a lot of punchAmazonForeo Luna Play Plus 2In the category of things your girlfriend may love but hasn't asked for yet: Foreo facial brushes. Our team swears by these gentle yet effective cleansing devices. They have hygienic silicone bristles and come in five different models for different skin types. The Luna is small enough to bring on the go, so your partner can maintain their skincare routine while traveling. A dainty custom ringCatbirdCatbird Bittersweets NY Famous Letter RingThis delicate band looks beautiful worn on its own or stacked with the rest of their ring collection. Choose from yellow gold, white gold, or rose gold, a matte or shiny finish, and then add the final touch: A custom engraving of up to 11 letters. A trendy crossbody for her phoneBandolierBandolier Kimberly Leather CrossbodyIf they hate carrying a bulky bag just to store their phone and wallet, this stylish crossbody case was invented for them. It accommodates a wide range of smartphones and features card slots and a snap pocket to keep their essentials all in one tiny, easy-to-access place.A planned trip for the two of you to take togetherAirbnbAirbnb Gift CardIf you want to gift an experience you and your girlfriend can enjoy together, grab a card, a gift card to Airbnb, and come up with a few location ideas to choose from. You can also book a hotel in your city on or Expedia for a sweet staycation.A comfy loungewear set she can wear anywhereSpanxThis set made Oprah's Favorite Things list in 2022, but before that, it made our list of cool, useful products we tested or purchased recently. Our executive editor, Sally Kaplan, says this is one of the comfiest, softest, most flattering sets she's ever worn. The material is lightweight and buttery, not too hot but not too light.The pants are available in petite, regular, and tall sizes, and each set comes in a few neutral colors.  The sweatshirts come in a few different styles — cropped pullover, regular pullover, and half-zip — and if the wide leg pant isn't the right style for your gift recipient, you can also buy a tapered jogger-style pant in the same material for $110.A stylish vinyl playerUrban OutfittersCrosley UO Exclusive Checkered Ryder TurntablePart of a collab between Urban Outfitters and Crosley, this vinyl player features a checkerboard design, is easily portable, and can also stream music via Bluetooth.Earrings made with her birthstoneMejuriMejuri Amethyst Flat Sphere StudsIf your girlfriend wears jewelry, birthstone earrings that she can keep forever are a thoughtful, personalized gift she'll wear often.  A great foam rollerCrystal Cox/InsiderTB12 Vibrating Pliability RollerIf your girlfriend is very physically active, a foam roller is a nice gift to aid in her workout recovery and soreness. This one is our favorite because it has four levels of vibration, a pattern that targets muscle groups, and a durable exterior. But, if your budget doesn't fit a $160 foam roller, never fear — we like some under-$50 options too. A comfy zip-up for the months aheadPatagoniaPatagonia Women's Better SweaterPatagonia makes our favorite athleisure options overall, and that definitely includes the Better Sweater. It works in pretty much any environment — in the office, at home, on a hike, or on a casual night out — and has zippered pockets to keep hands warm in the cold months. We're also big fans of the 1/4 Zip option.A waterproof Kindle for reading anywhereAmazonAmazon Kindle PaperwhiteIf your girlfriend is a reader, we'd suggest looking at Amazon's Kindle Paperwhite; it's the company's thinnest and lightest yet, with double the storage. Perhaps the best features are that it's waterproof and has a built-in adjustable light for the perfect reading environment indoors or outdoors, day or night. If she loves a nice, relaxing bath, pair this with a caddy, bath bombs, and a glass of wine for a relaxing night in that you've already taken care of.  A houseplant that arrives already pottedLeon & GeorgeLeon & George Silver EvergreenLeon & George is a San Francisco startup that will send beautiful plants — potted in stylish, minimalist pots — to your girlfriend's door. All she has to do is to occasionally add water. Flowers are wonderful, but houseplants have a much longer shelf life, and most of Leon & George's options are very easy to care for. We'd also recommend checking out Bloomscape for small plant trios under $70.  A cashmere crewEverlaneEverlane The Cashmere CrewFor a closet staple she'll own for years to come, Everlane's $120 Cashmere Crew (available in various colors) is about the safest choice you can make. Everlane has plenty of great gifts (you can find the Everlane basics we wear repeatedly here), so you can't really go wrong. The best bathrobe money can buyParachuteParachute Classic Turkish Cotton RobeWe think the Parachute Classic Turkish Cotton Robe is the best robe on the market. It's soft, fluffy, and absorbent like a towel. It's also got nice deep pockets and a secure waist tie.A high-tech yoga towel prevents slippingMandukaManduka Yogitoes Yoga Mat TowelManduka is known for making the best yoga products, and their Yogitoes towel is one of the most loved. It has tiny 100% silicone nubs on one side that grab yoga mats and keep yogis from slipping around during the exercise. Having a good towel can make a big difference. It also comes in 19 great colors and gets eco-friendly points. Each Yogitoes towel is made from eight recycled plastic water bottles, and made with dyes free of azo, lead, or heavy metal. A new pair of comfy BirkenstocksNordstromBirkenstock Women's Arizona Slide SandalIf your girlfriend wears the unbelievably comfortable Birkenstocks most days, she might appreciate a new, unblemished pair. They're also in style. Apple AirPods Pro for when she's on the moveCrystal Cox/Business InsiderApple AirPods Pro (2nd Gen)We love Apple's AirPods Pro for Apple users. They're no-hassle, work with Apple products, have decent sound and noise cancellation, are water-resistant, have a wireless charging case, and feel more comfortable than standard AirPods. You'll find more wireless earbuds we love here.A convertible work and travel bag to keep her organizedCaraa SportCaraa Studio Tote (Medium)Caraa Sport makes some of the most functional and best-looking gym bags on the market. This one can transition from a tote to a backpack by adding straps. It also has a hidden shoe compartment and a waterproof and antimicrobial lining. You can read our full review of this bag here.A small, portable movie projectorAmazonAnker Nebula CapsuleThis is one of the most portable (and affordable) projectors. It's about the size of a soda can, weighs one pound, and has crisp image quality and 360° sound. Use it at home or bring it with you on your travels. Find a full review of the Anker Nebula Capsule here. Comfy, high-end sheetsBrooklinenBrooklinen Luxe Hardcore Sheet BundleBrooklinen is one of our favorite companies, point-blank. We think they make the best high-end sheets at the best price on the market, and most of the Insider Reviews team uses Brooklinen on their own beds.The Luxe Hardcore Sheet Bundle comes in plenty of colors and patterns, and you can mix and match them to suit your taste. Grab a gift card if you want to give her more freedom. If you opt for a sheet bundle, she'll receive a core sheet set (fitted, flat, two pillowcases), duvet cover, and two extra pillowcases in a soft, smooth 480-thread-count weave.A pair of beautiful pearl earringsStone and StrandStone and Strand Elliptical Pearl HuggiesPearls are timeless, but they're also one of the jewelry trends we're keeping an eye on. This pair, from the women-led startup Stone and Strand, is made with 14K gold with freshwater pearls.The best noise-canceling headphonesAmazonSony WH-1000XM4 HeadphonesIf your girlfriend is into music, the best gift is the one that improves her everyday music-listening experience. For that, we recommend our favorite noise-canceling headphones — Sony's WH-1000XM4 — that balance sound quality, noise cancellation, and comfort at a solid price.You can find more good noise-canceling headphone options here.A stylish carry-on with an external battery packAwayAway The Carry-OnAway's hyper-popular suitcases deserve their hype. Their hard shell is lightweight but durable, their 360° spinner wheels make for seamless traveling, and the external (and ejectable and TSA-compliant) battery pack included can charge a smartphone five times over so she never has to sit behind a trash can at the airport for access to an outlet again. It's also guaranteed for life by Away. Find our full review here.A powerful portable speakerAmazonSonos MoveThe Sonos Move is one of the best speakers on the market. It's powerful, can be controlled by voice or an app, and has Amazon Alexa built-in so on WiFi you can play music, check the news, set alarms, get your questions answered, and more, without much effort.A delicate, timeless diamond necklaceAurateAurate Diamond Bezel NecklaceThis is something your girlfriend will wear and own forever. A delicate diamond necklace is an essential piece and will (probably) never go out of style. This option is from one of our favorite startups, Aurate — an ethical fine jewelry startup founded by two women from the Netherlands and Morocco, respectively. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 20th, 2023

The 53 best Valentine"s Day gifts for her, from a love letter necklace to a hot sauce subscription

In search of the best Valentine's Day gifts for her? Here are 53 great gift ideas for your wife, girlfriend, partner, or friend. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Catbird; AmazonValentine's Day is mostly associated with romantic gifts like fresh bouquets of roses, heart-shaped chocolates, diamond jewelry, and nice dinners out. But if you're looking for something different, there are plenty of great gifts you can get for your partner, girlfriend, wife, or any other special person in your life.To help, we've rounded up gifts that are upgrades to the V-Day classics, practical items that are still sweet, or creative activities you can do together — no matter her interests or your budget.If you're looking for more gift ideas beyond your significant other, we have unique Valentine's Day gifts for everyone in your life, including gift ideas for him.This list includes a Sponsored Product that has been suggested by Nisolo. It also meets our editorial criteria in terms of quality and value.*An affordable luxury watchBredaVirgil (Metal) Rectangle Watch, available at Breda, $185Breda makes beautiful and unique luxury watches — most of which cost under or barely over $200. We loved the variety of options and how they felt more expensive than they looked.A card game to know each other betterTargetWe're Not Really Strangers, available at Amazon, $17.99This game is great for teasing out new, interesting, and important parts of whoever you play with — whether it's a new friend or your longtime partner. It's an easy (and thankfully pretty non-cheesy) way to spend quality time together.If you've played too much "We're Not Really Strangers," check out "Where Should We Begin" from the legendary relationship expert and psychotherapist Esther Perel. A stylish pair of bootsNisoloCarmen Chelsea Boots, available at Nisolo, $240Chelsea boots are a timeless closet staple that can elevate any outfit yet are durable enough to wear during any season. Plus, Nisolo's shoes are sustainably crafted — learn more here.*Sponsored by NisoloA bouquet of our favorite flowersUrbanStemsThe Eros bouquet, available at UrbanStems, from $75Even with all these unique gift ideas, sometimes you just want to stick with a classic bouquet. UrbanStems is our go-to for online flowery delivery service — it offers beautiful and unique bouquets with options to pick out sleek vases and add-on gifts.A birth chart book she'll flip to all the timeBirthdate Co.Birthdate C0. The Birthdate Book, available at Birthdate C0. and Amazon, $95Whether she's hardcore into astrology or has a passing interest in knowing her moon sign, this beautiful book is bound to be a hit. All you have to do is know their time and location of birth to get a 70-page guide to their chart and what it says about their personality and future. As a bonus, you can add a personal message to the front page.A kit to make the best sushi at homeGoldbellyDIY Kit for 2 by Blue Ribbon Sushi, available at Goldbelly, $149.95Valentine's Day is strongly affiliated with going out to dinner, but making it together can be half the fun. This kit from famed Japanese restaurant Blue Ribbon Sushi provides everything you need to make 4-5 rolls. If sushi isn't her thing (or you'd prefer a pre-made dinner), you can get everything from Nashville BBQ to decadent desserts from Goldbelly, one of our favorite services for gourmet eats.An engravable love letter charmCatbirdThe Smallest Love Letter Charm, available at Catbird, $138Gift the ultimate love letter with this dainty little charm (which you can engrave with her name, an address, or a short, sweet message). You can buy just the charm if she already has a gold chain — or add a chain with your order.A hot sauce subscription to keep things spicyJenny McGrath/InsiderHot Sauce Subscription, available at Fuego Box, from $12.95 per monthAdd to her ever-growing hot sauce collection with this monthly subscription, which sends either one or three bottles to her door every month (there's even an extra-hot option, if she's not kidding around).A personalized wellness journalPapierJoy Wellness Journal, available at Papier, $35If she loves a physical planner or keeping a daily diary, this hardcover journal is about to become her new favorite. You can pick from a range of vibrant bindings and customize the cover with a title, their name, and anything else you want.A heart-shaped Le CreusetWilliams SonomaLe Creuset Enameled Cast Iron Heart (2-Qt), available at Williams Sonoma, $220Le Creuset pans are already fantastic pieces of cookware to invest in, but the brand's heart-shaped offerings make the gift even more special. You can get a shallower cast iron pot or skillet, but all will be equally great for serving that Valentine's Day dinner.A sleek tote they can customizeCuyanaSystem Tote, available at Cuyana, $278Beyond its sleek, work-appropriate look, Cuyana's Italian leather System Tote comes with optional accessories like a crossbody strap or matching laptop sleeve. A lightweight FitbitKohl's Fitbit Inspire 2, available at Amazon, Walmart, and Best Buy, from $58.10Fitbit's Inspire 2 tracker is lightweight and affordable, but it has no shortage of useful features. This mini-sized watch offers the best of Fitbit's signature features, including automatic sleep and activity tracking, constant heart rate tracking, and mindfulness encouragement via the Relax app. Better yet, it has the longest battery life of all the Fitbits, lasting up to 10 days without a charge. Lego flowers you can build togetherAmazonLego Icons Orchid 10311 Building Set for Adults (608 Pieces), available at Amazon, Target, and Walmart, from $49.07Sure, she'll probably be happy to receive flowers, but if she's also a big fan of Legos or hands-on activities, why not opt for this creative take on a classic Valentine's Day gift? This surprisingly realistic-looking orchid is a fun project for you to put together (and requires none of the effort of handling a real one).A custom map of a place with special meaningGrafomapGrafomap Custom Map, available at Grafomap, from $19Create a custom map of one of her favorite places or a spot that holds special meaning for her. Pick your location, then get to customizing. Grafomap lets you choose your own colors, write your own labels, and zoom in or out, for a map that is 100% unique. A sweet, minimalist braceletMejuriLotus Bracelet, available at Mejuri, $78Valentine's Day is often affiliated with big, flashy jewelry — but what if your recipient is a minimalist at heart? This affordable gold vermeil and white sapphire bracelet is perfect for everyday wear while still feeling like a romantic gift.Roses to last her a year with no upkeep necessaryVenus et FleurLe Mini Heart Bundle Set, available at Venus et Fleur, $159Forget standard roses and give her display-worthy stems that will last a full year. Venus et Fleur flowers are real roses specially preserved to last for a year without any maintenance or watering necessary. This cute set was created just for Valentine's Day and includes three mini heart arrangements in blush, ivory, and camel tones along with a box printed with candy heart-inspired messages like "Be Mine" and "Kiss Me." A National Park pass for future adventuresREIAmerica the Beautiful Pass 2023/2024, available at REI, $79.99For fans of experiential gifts, this annual pass grants access to nearly all the US National Parks. It can accommodate a car of up to four people and makes park-hopping a breeze. It's the perfect nudge to finally plan that Utah road trip together!A gift set of quality olive oil and vinegarBrightlandThe Essential Capsule, available at Brightland, $112We love Brightland's high-quality olive oil and vinegar — they're perfect gifts for any chef or foodie. Plus, beyond looking beautiful on a kitchen counter, Brightland's opaque bottles help protect the product from sun damage.A gorgeous puzzle to do togetherPiecework PuzzlesSome Like It Hot Puzzle, available at Piecework Puzzles, $38Piecework's visually stunning creations aren't anything like the puzzles you grew up with. Featuring vibrant, busy photos, they offer a unique challenge (and also look great as wall art when you're done).A tiny crossbody bag for her phone and cardsCrystal Cox/InsiderKimberly Adjustable Crossbody Bandolier, available at Bandolier, $128If she's always fumbling around for her phone or wallet, she will thank you for introducing her to this cute, ingenious crossbody, which stores both her device and her credit cards.A movie watchlist posterUncommon GoodsMovie Scratch Off Poster, available at Uncommon Goods, $15We have more downtime at home than ever these days. Hang this somewhere and slowly work through the movies together when you're in a stalemate about what you should watch next. An extra absorbent, hotel-quality bathrobeSnowe/InstagramBathrobe, available at Snowe, $100Snowe's $100 unisex bathrobe has been called the best and most absorbent terry robe on the market. The cotton fiber traps air for extra absorbency, is soft and plush, and the unisex sizing means it will feel like a blanket-turned-robe. Perfect functionality, and extra points for coziness. A monthly book subscriptionBook of the MonthGift Subscription, available at Book of the Month, from $49.99/three monthsIf she's a major bookworm, help her stock up on new reads with a Book of the Month subscription, which lets her pick one out of five books to have delivered to her door every month. All the books are brand new and span genres from romance to thrillers, but if she's not feeling any of them, she can always take a pause for a month, too.A dainty bracelet that celebrates your connectionAurateConnection Bracelet, available at Aurate, $350If you're looking for something sweet that will remind her of you, the Connection Bracelet with two interlocking loops on a 14-karat gold chain (white, yellow, or rose) is meant to symbolize connection and harmony.  A delicious steamer set for the showerUncommon GoodsHeart-Shaped Shower Steamer Set, available at Uncommon Goods, $32Help her unwind and enjoy a little self-care time with this cute shower steamer set. The hot shower releases soothing scents and essential oils from these heart-shaped steamers. Plus, they also transform into an exfoliating and moisturizing body scrub. A fill-in book of reasons you love themAmazon"I Wrote a Book About Us" by M.J. Clark, available at Amazon, $14.36Sometimes simple gifts that tell them how much you care are the best. This picture book is filled with short, sweet prompts for you to fill in yourself (or together) and she can look back on it whenever she needs a little romantic pick-me-up.A mobile projector for movie nightAmazonAnker Nebula Mini Projector, available at Amazon and Nebula, from $249.99Get your favorite buttery microwave popcorn or something gourmet and have yourselves a thoughtful, elevated movie night date just the two of you.Ultra-comfy shoesAllbirds/InstagramWool Runners, available at Allbirds, $110We've been wearing and loving these comfortable original Allbirds sneakers for years. They're soft, breathable, lightweight, and machine-washable. As a bonus, they're made out of sustainable materials.  A beautiful candleOtherland CandlesOtherland Single Flame Gift Set, available at Otherland, $28.80Otherland Threesome Candle Gift Set, available at Otherland, $72Candles are a failsafe gift, and we tend to recommend Otherland the most for special occasions. The glass tumbler containers are beautiful in person (and easily reused), and scents range from Canopy (fresh fig, herby ivy greens, mint) to Chandelier (champagne, saffron, musky leather). A gift card for future concert ticketsStubHubStubHub Gift Card, available at StubHub, from $25A gift card for concert tickets won't go to waste — and gives you both an epic date to look forward to.A cooling weighted blanket for more restful sleepGravity BlanketsNew Cooling Blanket, available at Amazon and Gravity, from $154Weighted blankets help create more restful sleep by "grounding" the body, and Gravity makes the best weighted blanket overall. The startup's New Cooling Blanket has evenly distributed weight, but it's also the most breathable and aesthetically pleasing option we've found so far.If you're looking to spend half the amount — and still get a good weighted blanket — we recommend checking out YnM on Amazon. It also comes in sizes big enough to cover two people at once. Either way, pick whichever option is about 10% of her body weight for the right effect. A reel viewer for a nostalgic tripUncommon GoodsCreate Your Own Reel Viewer, available at Uncommon Goods, $34.95The ultimate touch of thoughtful nostalgia, this reel viewer will make her feel like she's reliving her childhood. Customize the reel with personal pictures for a unique way to reminisce about favorite past moments and memories.A cashmere sweater she can wear on repeatEverlaneEverlane Cashmere Crew, available at Everlane, $145Gift an Everlane E-Gift Card, from $25Everlane's clothing prices are much more affordable than most brands, thanks to its commitment to radical transparency. We also love how soft and cozy its cashmere sweaters are, and bet that she'll probably wear the cold-weather essential every week.A buzzy coffee scrubCrystal Cox/Business InsiderFrank Body Original Coffee Scrub, available at Ulta, from $9.95This Coffee Scrub has made the rounds on social media, so you may have seen it before. It's made of a blend of natural ingredients like roasted and ground coffee beans, cacao extract, and cold-pressed almond oil to exfoliate and moisturize the skin. A lifetime REI membershipREIREI Membership, available at REI, $30An REI membership offers a lifetime of benefits for a one-time purchase, including 10% off (paid back in an annual dividend), special offers, access to in-store REI Garage sales, and special pricing on REI classes and events. Find out more here.A signet ring with her personal zodiac sign on itCatbirdZodiac Ring, available at Catbird, $124Catbird is one of the direct-to-consumer startups making affordable and sustainable fine jewelry, and its Zodiac Ring — like Mejuri's under-$100 Zodiac collection — is pretty, understated, and personalized to her zodiac sign. A Kindle Paperwhite for easy reading on the goAmazonAmazon Kindle Paperwhite, available at Amazon, $149.99We're not denying the enjoyment of a physical book, but an ebook reader is a particularly good option for travelers and commuters. She can access her entire library of ebooks on one slim, lightweight device. We're partial to Amazon's Kindle Paperwhite with its glare-free display and waterproofing, which allows you to read literally anywhere. You can find our full review of the Kindle Paperwhite here.An intimate cooking class led by a professional chefCozymeal/InstagramGift Card, available at Cozymeal, from $50Experiential gifts are on the rise, and Cozymeal cooking classes are one of our favorites. Together, you'll learn how to make anything from fresh pasta to Argentinian staple dishes. In addition to cooking classes, Cozymeal offers food tours in various cities. You can find a full review of the service here.A colorful set of wine glassesEstelleColored Wine Stemware set of 6, available at Estelle Colored Glass and Food 52, $185Whether the lady in your life likes to wind down with a nice glass of wine at the end of the day or enjoys entertaining and setting a colorful table, these stunning handblown glass wine glasses are sure to impress. Choose to mix and match colors or get a matching set. A ClassPass gift card for a grabbag of workout classesClassPassGift a ClassPass Gift Card, from $50ClassPass makes boutique fitness classes more affordable and convenient. It's a monthly subscription that gives users access to a large variety of gyms and classes in their city for about half of the traditional cost. If she likes to stay active, is looking for a newfound favorite class, or likes yoga as much as barre, this is a great gift she'll actually use. You can read more about the service here. Brooklinen sheetsBrooklinenBrooklinen Luxe Hardcore Sheet Bundle, available at Brooklinen, from $272.25Brooklinen has a well-earned reputation as one of the internet's favorite bedding startups. Its bedding is comfortable and luxurious, and any of the 15 colors and patterns can instantly elevate the look of her bedroom. If she's not ready to revamp her whole bedding set, gift her a pair of pillowcases to start. An easy way to make sparkling beveragesSodaStreamSodaStream Fizzi, available at Amazon and Best Buy, from $69.99Fizzi's compact, cordless design makes it easy to have sparkling beverages anywhere with just the push of a button. Whether she enjoys bubbly water, likes to create her own soda flavors, or wants to up her at-home cocktail game, the Fizzi makes it a breeze. It even comes with a handy carbonating bottle.Fluffy face towels that can hide mascara stainsWeezie TowelsMakeup Towels, available at Weezie, from $40Weezie makes dedicated makeup towels that are soft enough to rub on your face, fun enough to make a nightly routine something to look forward to, and dark enough to hide the annoyance of makeup stains. We were pleasantly surprised by how much we loved them. A year-long subscription to Disney+Alyssa Powell/Business Insider1-year gift subscription, available at Disney+, $109.99Give her unlimited access to movies and shows from Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and 20th Century Fox — pretty much everything you two need for any future nights spent at home. You can find everything there is to know about Disney+ over here.Coffee from all over the worldAtlas Coffee3 Month Gift Subscription, available at Atlas Coffee Club, $60It's a worldwide coffee tour without the expense of airplane tickets. Atlas Coffee Club delivers single-origin coffee and always includes a postcard from the country, brewing tips, and flavor notes with each month's shipment. The best socks she's ever wornBombasWomen's Ankle Sock 4-Pack, available at Bombas, $49.40They may just seem like a basic, everyday accessory, but socks are among the most underrated gifts you can give. Bombas spent two years perfecting its first pair of socks, and we think it got it right. With thoughtful innovations, like a blister tab and cushioned footbeds, she'll quickly notice the difference. A large print of a favorite memoryArtifact UprisingLarge Format Prints, available at Artifact Uprising, from $15.20Artifact Uprising makes luxury prints at accessible prices — and they make especially thoughtful gifts that look like they should cost much more. Get one of their favorite photos printed on archival fine art paper for $20 and up, or thoughtful cards for as little as $1 per custom card. You can also make a color series photo book for $22, a set of prints for $9, and a personalized calendar on a handcrafted wood clipboard for $25.A cult-favorite skincare serumMaeloveGlow Maker Serum, available at Maelove, $29.95There are a lot of serums out there making lofty claims about how much they'll improve skin, but Maelove's Glow Maker really lives up to the hype. If the fact that it was developed by MIT scientists is not enough, it also costs less than $30, and it really will get her skin glowing in no time.Sweet treats from NYC's Milk BarMilk BarThe Sweet Nothings, available at Milk Bar, $84Instead of the usual box of chocolates, gift some of the best-known and most delicious treats from NYC-favorite Milk Bar. The set includes six cookies in a cookie tin (including the famous Compost Cookie) and 24 truffles. An assortment of low-fuss succulentsThe SillSucculent Assortment, available at The Sill, from $48If she'd like a few plants that are easier to take care of than flowers, The Sill's succulent assortment is affordable, convenient, and really cute. Comfy matching underwearMeUndiesMatching Underwear, available at MeUndies, $46Get yourself and your partner festive matching underwear — which also happen to be some of the most comfortable pairs we've ever found. MeUndies gives you the option to create your own personalized set — choose from styles for women, styles for men, or a mix of both, and then whichever length or cut you and your partner prefer. Silk scrunchies that keep hair soft and healthyBeautylishSlipsilk Hair Tie Holiday Bauble, available at Sephora, $22These silk hair elastics create less friction than cotton ones, which means less breakage and frizz for her strands. If she's not likely to splurge on these for herself, she'll appreciate receiving them as a gift. A fun, spontaneous trip togetherAirbnbAirbnb Gift Card, available at Airbnb, from $100If you want to gift an experience for the two of you to enjoy together, grab a gift card to Airbnb, and come with a few location ideas in mind. You can also book a hotel in your city on or Expedia for a sweet staycation. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 13th, 2023

The 8 best online flower delivery services we tested in 2023

Fresh flowers make a thoughtful and easy gift. We ordered 39 bouquets from 16 brands to find the best flowers for all occasions. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Fresh flowers make a thoughtful and easy gift. We ordered 39 bouquets from 16 brands to find the best flowers for all occasions.Lauren Savoie/InsiderWhether it's for Valentine's Day, a celebration, sympathy, or just because, sending fresh flowers is a thoughtful way to let someone know you care about them. Plus, it's easier than ever: There are dozens of online flower delivery services out there offering unique fresh bouquets, trendy dried flower arrangements, and even floral subscriptions.While our staff has used nearly every one of these merchants to send loved ones flowers over the years, we wanted to know exactly how they stack up against one another. We ordered 39 arrangements from 16 popular brands, sending the flowers to Insider Reviews team members all over the country. Our goal was to find a service that delivers the freshest, most attractive flowers that arrive on time — no matter your location.You can read more about our methodology, and find out more about what services didn't make the cut here.Here are the best online flower delivery services in 2023Best flower delivery service overall: UrbanStemsUrbanStems makes some of the most stunning bouquets we've found and offers something for everyone, with a diverse selection of fresh flowers, dried flowers, plants, gifts, and subscriptions.Best flower delivery service for farm-fresh flowers: Farmgirl FlowersFarmgirl Flowers offers unique and playful arrangements that change with what's in season and with many blooms sourced from California farmers.Best flower delivery service for custom arrangements: FloracracyFloracracy's custom arrangements are a unique way to mark life's meaningful moments and make gifting flowers feel incredibly personal and special. Best flower delivery service for same-day delivery: FTDFTD offers hundreds of bouquets, gifts, and plants for delivery in all 50 states and 150 counties, with many options for same-day arrival.  Best flower delivery subscription: BloomsyBoxBloomsyBox offers a la carte bouquets and plants, but its wide variety of subscription plans are where the service really shines.Best flower delivery service for preserved roses: RoseBoxPreserved roses are incredibly popular and can last more than a year with proper care. We love Rosebox for preserved roses because of its robust selection of arrangements, vases, and colors.Best flower delivery service for fresh roses: Roses OnlyAs the name implies, Roses Only sells just one product, but it does it remarkably well, delivering some of the most pristine, stunning, long-stemmed roses we've ever seen.Best flower delivery service for dried bouquets: East OliviaFresh flowers have a short lifespan, but dried florals from East Olivia can last for years with proper care — and feature inventive colors and textures not found in traditional fresh bouquets. Best flower delivery service overallLauren Savoie/Maria Del Russo/Rachael Shultz/InsiderUrbanStems makes some of the most stunning bouquets we've found and offers something for everyone, with a diverse selection of fresh flowers, dried flowers, plants, gifts, and subscriptions.  Price range: $45 to $185Delivery area: Lower 48 statesSame-day delivery: Yes, in New York City and Washington, D.C. onlyNext-day delivery: YesShipping: $10 to $15, depending on delivery date and methodShop all flowers on UrbanStemsPros: Lots of options to choose from, including dried bouquets and plants; attractive floral designs in a range of styles, sizes, and pricesCons: Some testers noted flowers lasted a few days less than other brandsUrbanStems offers a robust selection of modern, fresh bouquets, along with dried flowers, plants, candles, chocolate, and subscriptions. It's a great one-stop shop to find something that feels unique to your recipient.We tried the Juliet, Luna, and Double the Pink Champagne fresh bouquets, along with the Aspen dried bouquet and Claude plant. Everything arrived on time and in excellent condition. The arrangements were some of the freshest, most attractive bouquets we tested and were filled with lively, creative blooms in a range of colors.The bouquets lasted a little over a week — average for fresh-cut flowers — and the dried bouquet and plant are still going strong. The site is also very easy to navigate and lets you filter by occasion, color, price, and more.Read our full review of UrbanStems.Worth a look:Double the Juliet, $129The Finesse, $80The Suri dried bouquet, $115The Pucker Up flower and chocolate gift set, $125Best flower delivery service for farm-fresh flowersLauren Savoie/Connie Chen/InsiderFarmgirl Flowers offers unique and playful arrangements that change with what's in season and with many blooms sourced from California farmers.Price range: $50 to $250Delivery area: Lower 48 statesSame-day delivery: NoNext-day delivery: Possible, but not guaranteedShipping: $25Shop all bouquets from Farmgirl FlowersPros: Whimsical, in-season blooms; each bouquet is unique; moderately priced; offers some rare flowers; some florals are grown in the US Cons: Surprise bouquets are not ideal if you have specific flowers you want to include or avoid; some customers report wilting or short-lived bloomsIf you're after an arrangement that looks like it was recently plucked from the garden, Farmgirl Flowers offers inventive and playful bouquets based on what's in season. Farmgirl's flagship offerings are the Fun Size, Just Right, and Big Love bouquets (formerly Mini, Midi, and Maxi). You don't get to choose what you receive; instead, Farmgirl puts together a bouquet based on what's available and in season. The company's website and social media give you an idea of what to expect, but every bouquet is slightly different, giving it a special, unique feel. We received a Just Right and a Big Love, as well as another Just Right sent to a tester in California. We loved that the arrangements had a whimsical, wild shape to them, and they were gorgeous from every angle. The Just Right and Big Love both appeared the same size when we first received them, but after a few hours in water, the Big Love's closed buds opened up to create a fuller bouquet. If you want your bouquet to include (or avoid) certain flowers, Farmgirl also offers a few dozen specialty bouquets, including some rare blooms like flower breeder David Austin's Patience roses.Worth a look:Just Right Burlap-Wrapped Bouquet, $79Before Sunrise David Austin and Wabara roses, $101Bright of my Life, $120Rose Goes, $55Best flower delivery service for custom arrangementsLauren Savoie/Connie Chen/InsiderFloracracy's custom arrangements are a unique way to mark life's meaningful moments and make gifting flowers feel incredibly personal and special. Price range: $155 to $350Delivery area: Lower 48 statesSame-day delivery: NoNext-day delivery: YesShipping: IncludedShop all flowers on FloracracyPros: Completely customizable arrangements, online tool helps you choose the right arrangement, beautiful packaging, thoughtful extras like a petal pressing book and mini shears, letter writing serviceCons: Online tool can be a bit tricky to navigate, lots of packaging (though most options are compostable or recyclable), few budget optionsIf you really want to wow your giftee with something special, a custom arrangement from Floracracy is perhaps the most personal flower gift you can buy. Every aspect of the design can be customized, from the shape and the colors to the blooms.If you're not sure where to start, the company's design tool walks you through a quiz that lets you select the intended recipient, occasion, and meaning you wish to convey to make a recommendation. Each flower is paired with a meaning from the company's thorough research of historical flower symbolism. You're also given the option to write a letter yourself or have the company write one for you based on the information you provide.The arrangements we received from Floracracy were the lushest and most vibrant we've ever seen from a flower delivery service. Each arrangement comes with a coordinating vase, a handbound book for pressing petals, and an illustrated card with each of the flowers and their meaning. Our blooms lasted almost three weeks — longer than any other arrangement. While this service is pricier and requires some of your time to design, it makes for a truly meaningful and memorable flower gift. Read our full review of Floracracy here.Worth a look:Chloe Tussie Mussie, $195Arch, $365Edge, $155George, $215Best flower delivery service for same-day deliveryLauren Savoie/Jenny McGrath/InsiderFTD offers hundreds of bouquets, gifts, and plants for delivery in all 50 states and 150 counties, with many options for same-day arrival.  Price range: $40 to $225Delivery area: All 50 states, 150 countriesSame-day delivery: YesNext-day delivery: YesShipping: Starts at $17.99 and varies based on delivery date and order totalShop all flowers from FTDPros: Orders filled by local florists; a large selection of bouquets, plants, and giftsCons: Experience can vary based on which florist fills your order, designs are more traditional and less modernWhen you need to send flowers fast, a floral wire service is your best option. Florists' Transworld Delivery Service (FTD) has been in the flower delivery business for more than 100 years and partners with local florists to fulfill and deliver orders in all 50 states and more than 150 countries. In many cases, you'll also have the option of same-day delivery. The arrangements lean toward more traditional colors and flowers instead of more modern or unique designs.Compared to other similar floral wire services, we had a better experience with FTD. The bouquets and plants we received were fuller, fresher, and in better condition than blooms from 1-800-Flowers. Of course, since orders are typically filled by local florists, your experience may vary depending on who ultimately fills your order.If you need to send flowers quickly, internationally, or to hard-to-reach places, FTD is the best same-day service we've found.Read our full review of FTD.Worth a look:Clear Skies Bouquet, $85Magnolia Sapling with Lavender Soap & Lotion Duet, $110Fiesta Bouquet, $90Light of My Life Bouquet, $65Best flower subscriptionLauren Savoie/InsiderBloomsyBox offers a la carte bouquets and plants, but its wide variety of subscription plans are where the service really shines.   Price range: $45 to $70Delivery area: Nationwide, except Puerto Rico and HawaiiSame-day delivery: N/A for subscriptionsNext-day delivery: N/A for subscriptionsShipping: Free with subscriptionShop all flower subscriptions on BloomsyBoxPros: Multiple weekly and monthly plans to choose from, offers month-to-month and prepaid plans, bouquets are gorgeous, a la carte bouquets and plants availableCons: Don't get to choose which flowers are in your bouquet, which might not be a good option for those with allergies or petsFlower subscriptions are a great way to brighten someone's day on a more frequent basis — or to liven up your own home with regularly-scheduled blooms. BloomsyBox offers a robust fleet of weekly and monthly subscription options at reasonable prices. You can pay month-to-month or save a few dollars by prepaying for 3-, 6-, or 12-month subscriptions. While the retailer also sells a la carte bouquets and plants, we think its subscriptions offer the best value.We tried BloomsyBox's priciest subscription: Its NYBG Collection. Each bouquet in the subscription is curated by the New York Botanical Garden's floral experts and features blooms that are in season. A portion of the subscription goes to supporting the NYBG's plant science and conservation efforts.We highly recommend BloomsyBox's subscriptions to anyone looking for a bit of floral cheer on a regular basis. It's a nice treat each month to get an e-mail saying a new bouquet is on the way. Worth a look:Bloomsy Deluxe Subscription, $49.99 per monthThe NYBG Subscription, $69.99 per monthPet-Safe Blooms Subscription, $49.99 per monthBloomsy Eucalyptus Subscription, $39.99 per monthBest flower delivery service for preserved rosesLauren Savoie/Maliah West/Hannah Freedman/InsiderPreserved roses are incredibly popular and can last more than a year with proper care. We love Rosebox for preserved roses because of its robust selection of arrangements, vases, and colors.Price range: $89 to $1,119Delivery area: All 50 statesSame-day delivery: Yes, in Manhattan onlyNext-day delivery: YesShipping: $0 to $30, depending on delivery date and order totalShop all preserved flowers on RoseBoxPros: More than 20 rose color options, many container types, smell and look like fresh roses, can last a year or longer with proper careCons: Don't have the same feel as real rosesIf you've been on Instagram lately, chances are you've seen these trendy preserved roses somewhere on your feed. Usually packed into boxes or displayed in a classic ball arrangement, these flowers are incredibly popular with influencers and celebrities. We tested three preserved rose brands and found the quality very similar. Ultimately, we chose RoseBox as the best preserved roses for its diverse range of color and display options. We particularly liked that its plentiful display containers had discreet branding or none at all, unlike other preserved rose brands that their cover containers (which can't be separated from the flowers) with logos.  Almost all of RoseBox's 90+ products can be customized with 21 or more different rose color options. One of our testers opted for turquoise, while others chose more classic red and pink varieties. Preserved roses are expensive, no matter what brand you choose. A single preserved rose will cost you anywhere from $44 to $89, which is the same price as a full-sized bouquet from most of our other top picks. Expect a medium-sized array of preserved roses to cost about $300. That said, they can end up being an economical alternative to buying flowers every week. We're eager to see if our arrangements live up to their purported longevity.Worth a look:Mini Modern Mirror Box, $119Single Flame Rose Jewelry Box, $89Signature Half Ball of 55 Roses, $479Custom Initial Box, $475Best flower delivery service for fresh rosesLauren Savoie/Katie Decker-Jacoby/InsiderAs the name implies, Roses Only sells just one product but it does it remarkably well, delivering some of the most pristine, stunning, long-stemmed roses we've ever seen.Price range: $49 to $669Delivery area: All 50 states and internationally to the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Singapore, and AustraliaSame-day delivery: Yes, in New York City and Los Angeles onlyNext-day delivery: YesShipping: $19.95Shop all roses on Roses OnlyPros: Stunning roses; beautiful presentation; long-lasting flowers; available in quantities from six to 100Cons: Limited product and color choices.Roses are such a big seller that we made sure every arrangement we received as part of this guide included at least some of them. Having seen the spectrum of what's out there, we can confidently say that Roses Only delivers the most pristine, long-lasting roses we've found.So much care is put into the delivery: The cartoonishly perfect long-stemmed roses (which you can order in quantities of 6-100) come packaged in a long, elegant box with a linen ribbon, and every rose has its own water reservoir to ensure it arrives pristine. The roses themselves are flawless, with big velvety petals. They lasted about two weeks and gradually opened up until each bud was about palm-sized.At about $8 per flower, Roses Only sells some of the most expensive roses out there, but if it's just fresh roses you're after, no flower delivery service does it better.Worth a look:One Dozen Red Roses, $856 Yellow Roses, $5936 Red Roses, $175One Dozen Pink Roses and Godiva Chocolate, $115Best flower delivery service for dried bouquetsLauren Savoie/InsiderFresh flowers have a short lifespan but dried florals from East Olivia can last for years with proper care and feature inventive colors and textures not found in traditional fresh bouquets. Price range: $60 to $225Delivery area: All 50 statesSame-day delivery: NoNext-day delivery: NoShipping: $12.99Shop all dried flowers at East OliviaPros: Unique and inventive designs, each arrangement comes with a coordinating vase, options change seasonally, arrangements can last a year or longer with proper careCons: Order processing can take up to five business days, limited edition collections can sell out quicklyNo matter how pretty the bouquet, fresh flowers will all eventually wilt. Dried bouquets are a good solution for those who love the look of florals but hate the upkeep. Some of the most creative and beautiful preserved arrangements we've seen come from East Olivia.The offerings change seasonally, but at the time of our testing, the brand featured a winter collection and Valentine's Day collection, both featuring ornamental grasses and filler flowers dyed dreamy pastel colors. Each bouquet comes fully arranged and delicately packaged with its own matching ceramic vase. We love knowing that we'll get many, many months of enjoyment out of these.The fact that East Olivia's collections change with the season makes each arrangement feel special. Order processing can take up to five business days, so you'll want to plan ahead if you plan on gifting one of these dried arrangements, especially considering the limited edition collections can sell out quickly.Worth a look:Pink Pampas, $65The Samantha Spring XL, $185The Samantha Fall Bud, $60What else we testedCaitlin Petreycik/Lauren Savoie/InsiderWe tested 16 brands for our guide to the best flower delivery services. Here are the ones that didn't quite make the cut.What else we recommend and why:The Bouqs Co.: The first time we tested The Bouqs, we received lackluster results. The grand Santa Cruz'n arrangement came with half the number of promised blooms, many were wilted, and flowers were zip-tied directly to the shipping box with only a single sheet of paper laid over them for protection. The Bouqs claimed they fixed these issues, so we tried the service again recently with three more bouquets sent to three testers. The bouquets were noticeably fuller, better protected, and fresher this time around. We're upping the brand's status from "not recommended" to "recommended," but still keeping a close eye on reader reports of quality and freshness.  Ode à la Rose: Ode à la Rose makes beautiful, minimalist bouquets often consisting of just one to three flower types. The bouquets we received from Ode à la Rose were breathtaking, and this service is a fantastic option if you live in New York City, Philadelphia, or Chicago where you can choose from a wider selection of arrangements and have the option of same-day delivery. However, the selection is limited, especially for nationwide delivery (only 10 bouquets were available for delivery to Boston).Venus Et Fleur: This preserved rose brand delivered fresh-smelling, attractive roses. We loved the quality of the blooms and the creative options available on the site. However, we wished there were more container options, especially those that don't have Venus Et Fleur branding so prominently displayed.Bouquet Box: Bouquet Box offers you a chance to hone your flower arranging skills with a kit of flowers and instructions for arranging them. It's pricey compared to other comparable services, but we really enjoyed the experience and the instructions. We felt like we learned a skill and got a great bouquet. Plus, the shears, thorn-stripper, vase, and grid from the welcome kit are great home additions to have.Pomp: Pomp features sustainably-grown flowers from the owners' farms in Colombia. The roses are the stand-out option. We're looking forward to seeing Pomp's selection expand as the brand grows.Fresh Sends: Fresh Sends offers two products: a "regular" or "full" bouquet. You don't know what sort of arrangement you'll be receiving; the offerings change daily. While this is a great option if you struggle with decision fatigue (and love fun packaging), the "full" bouquet was quite small for $85.What we don't recommend and why:Rosepops: This preserved rose brand sends its arrangements packed in lidded boxes. When it arrives, you remove the lid and pull on the box strings to "pop" the roses up above the lid of the box for presentation. The popping mechanism was unique (and nice for storage). However, our testers thought the large and prominent logos on all the containers cheapened the presentation, and the website isn't intuitive to navigate.1-800-Flowers: While the selection is robust, the website is a bit tricky to navigate. The bouquet we received was skimpier and less impressive than others from similar services. Our Seattle-based tester noted that the orchid she ordered wasn't packed very well for shipping, and a lot of the gravel and soil in the container were spilled when it arrived.Our flower delivery service testing methodologyLauren Savoie/InsiderTo find the best flower delivery service, we conducted hands-on testing of every brand in this guide. We ordered two to three arrangements from each brand, evaluating the selection, ordering, and delivery process. We sent bouquets to testers in different parts of the country — including New York City, Boston, Los Angeles, Seattle, rural Colorado, and suburban Connecticut — to see if quality and delivery time varied based on location. In all, we tested 39 bouquets from 16 brands. Here's what we looked for in the best flower delivery service:Ordering: We scrutinized the ordering process of each service, noting whether the website was simple to navigate, what the product selection was like, and how easy it was to place an order. We also looked at shipping options and estimated delivery times.Delivery: We noted whether the arrangements arrived when they said they would (all did), evaluated packaging, and looked at the condition of the flowers when they first arrived. Testers across the country compared notes; we found delivery times and quality consistent across the country.Quality of flowers: We looked for full bouquets of lively-looking flowers that matched the description and photo of the arrangement we ordered online. We read all care instructions and followed them meticulously, noting how long the flowers remained fresh enough to display. Consistency: A good flower service should deliver quality blooms no matter the location of your recipient. Our testers across the country took photos and detailed notes about delivery and bouquet quality to compare experiences.FAQs about flower delivery servicesLauren Savoie/InsiderWhen should I order flowers for Valentine's Day, Mother's Day, and other popular holidays?While many flower delivery services offer next-day delivery for most of the year, all bets are off when it comes to major holidays like Valentine's Day and Mother's Day. When ordering around popular holidays, a safe bet is to place your order two weeks in advance of the day you want the flowers delivered. This will ensure you have plenty of arrangements and delivery dates to choose from.Is it safe to have fresh flowers around pets?It depends on the types of flowers. The ASPCA maintains a comprehensive list of flowers and plants and whether they are toxic or safe for dogs and cats. It's important to remember that certain plants can still be toxic to animals even if they are kept out of reach; pollen and other airborne spores can get into the fur of animals and be ingested during grooming. If you're ordering flowers for a household that has pets, it's best to stick with a service that allows you to see the types of flowers in the arrangement before ordering. Some brands, like Fresh Sends or subscription services, don't allow you to preview the bouquet before it's sent, which could land you with a bouquet that isn't pet safe.Our top pick, UrbanStems, lists the type of flowers in each arrangement, so you can check to make sure it's safe for your pet. Some brands, like Floracracy, take it a step further and let you completely customize your bouquet so you can be sure to only include plants and flowers that are safe.  How long do fresh flowers last?A lot depends on how recently the flowers were cut before they arrived at your home. Flowers can be cut hours, days, or weeks before shipping to you, greatly varying their lifespan in your home. On average, however, you can expect fresh flowers to last five days to a week in a vase with good care. If you're interested in longer-lasting flowers, preserved roses or a dried bouquet are great options.What's the best way to keep fresh flowers alive longer?Some ways to extend the life of your fresh flowers include cutting the stems before putting them in water, using flower food in the water (often supplied with the bouquet, but can be homemade), and changing the water whenever it gets discolored or cloudy. You can read more tips for keeping flowers fresh here. Remember that you don't have to trash the whole bouquet if a few flowers are dead or wilted; just remove the dead flowers and rearrange or tighten the bouquet as needed (you may need to downsize to a smaller vase). Hardy flowers with woody stems (like roses) can last several weeks with proper care.   What are the best types of flowers to buy?When in doubt, roses are a great pick. They're long-lasting, easy to care for, and largely pet safe. You can get roses in all sorts of colors, shapes, and sizes to suit any recipient. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 11th, 2023

An architect shares interior-design upgrades for 4 rooms in your home for an extra-cozy winter

Famed NYC architect Michael Gabellini, who designs ritzy condos and five-star hotels, knows how to make any home feel like a luxury getaway. Adding a freestanding fireplace or pellet stove is a relatively easy way to add a cozy element to a room, said architect Michael Gabellini.Hugo Goudswaard/Getty Images NYC architect and designer Michael Gabellini recommended four upgrades to make a home extra cozy. His clients may demand luxury, but that doesn't mean that some upgrades can't be affordable. Pellet stoves, under-counter heating, and firepits are cost-efficient and easy to install. Deep-pocketed homeowners from across the country call on New York City-based design firm Gabellini Sheppard. From a modern Aspen mountain hideaway to a sleek Park Avenue pad, the firm knows how to craft luxe, minimalist interiors.At the helm of the nearly 30-year-old firm is Michael Gabellini, an architect who has spearheaded projects from Jil Sander's Paris boutique to Istanbul's Edition hotel to the redesign of the Top of The Rock at Rockefeller Center in New York, as well as a raft of private residences whose celebrity inhabitants the firm discreetly declines to name. Gabellini spoke with Insider about four cozy upgrades — one for each main area of a home — that his clients are indulging in as the weather cools and that most anyone can apply.Add a minibar to the bedroomMinibars are becoming a must-have for bedrooms for Gabellini's high-end clients.Anymayy/ShutterstockGabellini recommends one product and one upgrade that can add coziness to any bedroom: A humidifier and an in-room minibar. A humidifier "helps you sleep, it ups the REM cycles," Gabellini said, and is a less expensive way to make the bedroom feel more luxurious. Canopy sells a design-forward humidifier and the Levoit LV600S has garnered good reviews online.On the other hand, clients who want to enjoy their bedrooms more while they're awake are requesting mini bars these days, he added.Bedrooms now include lounges or workspaces, not just a place to sleep."Clients spend more time in their bedrooms than they did before," Gabellini said.He said the minibar is handy for morning juices and noshes, as well as evening cordials.Gabellini points out that if the bedroom wall backs up to a bathroom, it's relatively easy to install a mini bar as it can share plumbing. He recommended the minibars from kitchen brand Molteni & C. and Dada, though IKEA makes more affordable pieces.Install heated walls in the bathroomGabellini Sheppard designed the interiors for 611 West 56th Street in New York, with bathrooms that include heated floors.Gabellini Sheppard/The BoundaryGabellini said he likes to extend the same kind of wellness amenities they put into ritzy hotels into the home. He's seeing a growing demand for heated walls, which are already popular in Germany. "It's very easy for us, if someone is retiling the bath to put these very thin micro mats of electric mesh into your walls, into your floors, and then you retile back on top of it," he said, noting that it adds about $5 to $7 per square foot in cost."For kids it's wonderful too, because it actually encourages them to go, especially in winter months, into their bathrooms because their bathrooms are always freezing," he added.Opt for heated countertops in the kitchenGabellini said a warmed countertop provides a natural gathering space for family and guests. Pictured here is Gabellini Sheppard's kitchen design for the condos of 152 Elizabeth Street in New York.Gabellini SheppardYou've heard of heated floors — and now, heated walls — but what about heated countertops? Gabellini said he often relies on WarmlyYours countertop heating pads when installing new kitchens. The pads start at $375 and cost about 10 cents a day to run, according to WarmlyYours. The heat they emit is gentle — they won't keep a plate of food warm or be too hot to touch if you're resting fingers on the countertop. "In a cold climate, to have that radiant heat while you're having drinks or dinner with your friends or family, it's just so wonderful because it naturally becomes a place that people gravitate to,"  he said.Add a fireplace to the living room like it's an appliancePellet stoves are easy to install and a nice addition for colder months.Reflexpixel/Getty ImagesIf your home doesn't have a fireplace, don't fret. It's relatively easy, and inexpensive, to add a standing pellet stove or wood stove to the living room, Gabellini said."It's a very easy thing to put in, because it's considered by code an appliance," he said. They do have to be vented and sit on a stone pad, and should be installed by a professional. The stoves are often priced below $2,000, and installation costs about the same.It's worth noting that come cities, like New York, prohibits the installation of wood-burning stoves, so make sure you check your local regulations before diving in.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 11th, 2023

Investing Mistakes During A Recession

As worries grew about the Federal Reserve and other central banks being willing to bring on a recession to control inflation, stock prices plunged on December 16, 2022. This is the second straight week that the Standard & Poor’s 500 has lost 1.4%. It fell by 407 points, or 1.2%, on the Dow Jones industrial […] As worries grew about the Federal Reserve and other central banks being willing to bring on a recession to control inflation, stock prices plunged on December 16, 2022. This is the second straight week that the Standard & Poor’s 500 has lost 1.4%. It fell by 407 points, or 1.2%, on the Dow Jones industrial average to 32,796 points and by 1% on the Nasdaq composite. Investors’ hopes for interest rate cuts next year were dashed as well when the Fed raised its forecast for how high interest rates will ultimately go. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   Find A Qualified Financial Advisor Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn't have to be hard. SmartAsset's free tool matches you with up to 3 fiduciary financial advisors in your area in 5 minutes. Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests. If you're ready to be matched with local advisors that can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now. Inflation, while down from its highest levels in decades, remains painfully high. As a result, the Fed has kept raising interest rates to slow economic growth to maintain its aggressive attack on prices. The danger, however, is that too much braking could send an already sluggish economy into recession. The risk was highlighted by S&P Global. According to the report, inflation slowed business activity this month. Even with the sharp drop, inflation pressures have eased. But, if history is any indication, the future isn’t looking too bright. According to Fed forecasts, inflation will slow next year due to rising unemployment. Despite this, the Fed’s own projections show prices still rising at an unacceptable rate by year-end 2023, with inflation at 3.5%. Why’s that concerning? Inflation has been running at 3.7% or higher during every recession since 1960 except the pandemic-induced downturn of 2020. It was only in 1974 that inflation was higher than 2.7% when the recession ended. While we don’t have a crystal ball to predict the future, it wouldn’t hurt to prepare for a possible downturn. And, one area to focus on is avoiding the following investing mistakes during a recession. Immediately selling your holdings when they begin to fall. When the economy is in recession, the stock market becomes highly volatile. As a result, you might be tempted to cut your losses when you see all your investments tank on the trading screen. However, when investments fail, you should not unload them. Why? Well, here are three reasons why you should hold onto your investments. If you sell during a downturn, you could lose money. As a result of a market downturn, stock prices decline. The prices of investments were likely higher when the market was booming, so you likely paid more for them. In other words, if you sell during a downturn, you might end up losing money on your investments. Remember that you will never lose money unless you sell, no matter what the market does. The only way to lock in your losses is to sell when prices are lower, even if your investments decrease in value. In short, a good way to avoid losing money is to hold onto your stocks until the price recovers. There is no way to predict the market. If you want to maximize your returns, you should buy stocks at their lowest prices when the market bottoms out, and sell when the market peaks. The strategy is called timing the market, and while it sounds smart, executing it successfully is extremely challenging. There is no way that anyone can accurately predict what will happen in the stock market, not even the best investors. Even a small error in timing can result in a lot of losses in the stock market. As an example, consider the 2020 market crash during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. In just a few weeks, the S&P 500 lost more than one-third of its value. By selling your investments shortly after prices started to fall, you would have not only locked in your losses but also locked in higher profits. Also, you could have missed the near-immediate recovery of the market. By timing the market, you might buy during high prices, sell during their lowest, and rebuy during high prices. When you hold onto your investments through the rough patches, though, you’re more likely to come out on top. A healthy company should see its price rebound. Stock markets are volatile, but companies with strong, healthy balance sheets have a better chance of bouncing back. It is important to understand a company’s underlying business fundamentals in order to determine its strength. Asking the following questions can help you determine this: In its industry, does it have a competitive advantage? Are its leaders capable of making good business decisions during challenging times? Is it financially healthy? In the long run, your investments should rebound after periods of volatility if you invest in solid companies. In times of market turmoil, it’s best to hold onto your investments and ride out the storm. Strictly limiting investing amid volatility. While some investors sell when the market dips, others don’t invest at all. In fact, according to a recent survey from Allianz Life, 65% of investors keep “more money than they should” out of the stock market. “We’re more fixated on what we could potentially lose on paper than what opportunities pass us by that we never capitalize upon,” said Josh Reidinger, CEO of Waverly Advisors in Birmingham, Alabama, which ranked No. 59 on the FA 100 list. If you stay away from the stock market, you might miss out on some of the best returns. As a matter of fact, over the past 20 years, the top 10 performing days occurred after big stock market declines in 2008 and 2020, during the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Morgan Asset Management. “History does not repeat itself,” Reidinger said. “But it’s a pretty good indicator of where we are going.” Buying stocks at their lowest points Stocks might be at their absolute lowest when you’re investing during a period of economic instability. Again, it’s possible to miss out on some profitable opportunities if you try to time the market that way. In a recession, it’s best to invest consistently at regular intervals. The only thing that matters is if that stock goes up in value eventually, not if you buy it at its lowest point. A recession can present a number of challenges when it comes to investing. However, knowing what mistakes to avoid can save you from having to live with regrets in the future. Not understanding what you are investing in. During recessions, Pamela Capalad, a financial planner at Brunch & Budget, says investors are tempted to invest in new, trendy investments. “Avoid anything that you didn’t understand before the recession,” she says. For instance, if you are unfamiliar with cryptocurrency and desperate to invest in it, now might be a bad time. Capalad says, “Ultimately, it goes back to: Do you understand what you’re investing in? Do you understand why you’re investing in crypto? Do you understand how crypto works?” “Crypto was one of the first things to take a dive when there was any hint of recession because crypto is currently all speculation,” she adds. “It’s really easy to ride a trend, especially when it’s going up.” Investing without diversification. Putting all your eggs in one basket isn’t a good idea. In general, investing in only a handful of stocks can be risky. The risk is even higher during a recession. However, by diversifying your capital across several assets, you’ll be able to mitigate losses if one or a few of your bets don’t work. In a recession, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) give you exposure to a diverse group of high-quality stocks through index-tracking ETFs, helping you avoid these mistakes. There are 2 basic types of indexes: A market index such as the S&P 500 is a measure of the overall market. An index which tracks a much more targeted subset of the overall market, such as small-cap growth stocks or large-cap value stocks. A bond index, a commodity index, and a currency index are also available. ETFs based on indexes seek to replicate the return of the market or subset of the market they aim to replicate, less their fees. The ETF market price will differ from the fund’s net asset value, so index ETFs do not track the underlying index perfectly. Generally, indexes based on subsets of the market compete with broader indexes based on the entire market. A small-cap index, for example, is typically compared to a broader index on the entire market by investors. What are the best ETFs to buy for a recession? Some suggestions include: Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond (SGOV) Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) Vanguard Utilities Index Fund ETF (VPU) Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) Checking your portfolio 24/7. Making investment decisions based on the market’s movements and constantly fretting over your portfolio’s value during a downturn is unlikely to be profitable. Continually checking indicates worry, which could lead to emotional decisions. You should check your portfolio once a week if you can. Occasionally, big down days follow big up days. In addition, if you participate in a workplace retirement plan like a 401(k), you’re likely adopting the practice of dollar-cost averaging. In this method, investments (typically mutual funds) are consistently purchased over time. With this strategy, you buy fewer shares when prices are high and more shares when prices are low. You listen to the “experts.” There’s no way Mad Money, Squawk Box, and Closing Bell along with their panel of supposedly “expert” money managers are going to predict when this recession will end. No offense. But, it’s all for entertainment. You may think that I’m being too harsh here. However, lead author Nicola Gennaioli examined stock prices, dividends, and data over the past 35 years to compare them with recommendations made by market experts. In his study, his team found that investing in the 10 percent of stocks most recommended by experts yielded, on average, a three percent return. In contrast, investors who invested in the ten percent of stocks least recommended by experts earned 15 percent returns on average! Not safeguarding your retirement. “Building an investment plan is like formulating a diet plan – totally dependent on your goal,” writes Sanjay Sehgal in a previous Due article. “When you visit your dietician for instance, one of the first questions asked is about your goal – Do you want to lose weight, build muscle, or you wish to celebrate food?” “But moderation, as any good dietician will tell you is the key; it’s only when everything you need is in your plate, in the right quantities, that you can achieve your goal, as well as enjoy each bite and every taste,” he adds. “A dietician’s plan begins from this understanding. “Investments also need planning, and this planning should be based upon your risk-taking ability and your life goals.” Consequently, we should plan our investments based on a post-pandemic financial horizon that will differ from anything we know. This now involves recession-proofing your retirement investments by following these steps: Take care of your health. Occasionally, there are pandemics, recessions, depressions, or high inflation rates. As a result, during a crisis, you would have a better chance of thinking clearly, taking action, and even protecting yourself against other risks. Have an emergency fund. An emergency fund should be equal to 6 months’ worth of income. In the event that you lose your job and unemployment is high, that is not going to save your life. But you will have some options and options for adjusting. Live within your means. Adapt your living expenses to match your retirement income. By living within your means during the good times, you will be less likely to go into debt when gas prices go up and more able to adjust spending in other areas. Stay in the market. There is always a risk associated with investing in the stock market. In exchange, you typically get higher returns over time than you would from savings accounts, fixed deposits, etc. Occasionally, the market dips, and your portfolio may suffer, but it will pass. Invest for the long term. What if your investments drop 15% as a result of a drop in the market? You won’t lose anything if you don’t sell. You will have plenty of opportunities to sell high in the long run, since the market is cyclical. Buying during a down market may end up paying off later on. Diversify your investments. Diversification reduces your portfolio’s market risk. Regardless of what the market does, diversification keeps a portfolio healthy. The market may fluctuate, but a portion of your portfolio may respond positively and offset some negative effects. Cash is where you stay. As a result of this mistake, panic selling is compounded. After a market downturn, stock prices often rebound strongly, showing how bailing out can cost you when the market turns around. To be fair, holding cash makes sense if you have short-term spending needs or are building an emergency fund. When your long-term financial goals are decades away, it makes no sense to hold a large position in it as part of your investment portfolio. It is advisable for investors who have excess cash because they sold during the market slide, or for any other reason, to close the gap and invest. It is possible to get back into the market gradually by buying set amounts of stock at regular intervals (say, monthly) using dollar-cost averaging. In many cases, dollar-cost averaging can make it easier for fearful investors to move out of cash, since they won’t have to worry about putting lots of money into the market, only to see it sell off again. As a result, if the market recovers, they will be glad they already put some of their money back to work rather than leaving all of it on the bench. You don’t consult an investment professional before making a large investment. As humans, we all make mistakes. And, occasionally, we make these mistakes because we all let our emotions get the best of us. In the end, though, you’ll get into trouble when you make decisions based on feelings rather than facts. How can you keep things in perspective and make sure your investments are on track? Consult a professional for investment advice. When you have a pro on your side, you’re more likely to stay focused on your long-term goals and stay as cool as a cucumber. FAQs What is a recession? After a period of growth, a recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP (gross domestic product). According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a recession is “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales.” What causes recessions? Many things have led to recessions in the past, but economic imbalances are typically the cause. For instance, the 2008 recession was caused by excess debt in the housing market. Unexpected shocks can also lead to job cuts, like the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic growth, earnings and stock prices are all put under pressure when unemployment rises. An economy can be thrown into a vicious cycle by these factors. In the long run, recessions are necessary to clear out excesses before the next boom. How does a recession affect the stock market? Although recessions are hard to predict, it’s still smart to think about how they might affect your portfolio. Historically, bear markets (market declines of 20% or more) and recessions (economic declines) have often overlapped, with equity markets leading the economic cycle by 6 to 7 months on the way down and back up. Even so, market timing moves can backfire, like moving an entire portfolio to cash. It’s often the late stages of an economic cycle or right after a market bottom that yield the best returns. In down markets, dollar cost averaging, where investors invest equal amounts at regular intervals, can help. Investors can buy more shares at lower prices while staying positioned for when the market recovers. How long do recessions last? Since 1854, the average recession has lasted 17 months, according to the NBER. Generally, recessions in the U.S. have lasted about 10 months since World War II, with recessions typically lasting much shorter. However, a recession can last much longer than that. For example, the Great Recession of 2007 – 2009 lasted 18 months. Conversely, it can last only a short time. The COVID-19 recession of 2020, for instance, lasted for only two months.. What should you do to prepare for a recession? Before and during a recession, investors should remain calm. It’s especially true during times of economic and market stress that emotions can sabotage investment returns. Although recessions can’t be predicted, it’s important to maintain a long-term mindset. Ensure your portfolio is designed to be balanced so that you can take advantage of growth periods before they happen while remaining resilient during volatile periods. Article by Albert Costill, Due About the Author Albert Costill graduated from Rowan University with a History degree. He has been a senior finance writer for Due since 2015. His financial advice has been featured in Money Magazine, Fool, The Street, Forbes, CNBC and MarketWatch. He loves to give personal finance advice to millennials......»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkJan 3rd, 2023

5 things wildly successful real-estate brokers do to get the most out of their days

How elite agents Mauricio Umansky, Mary Fitzgerald, Ryan Serhant, and others rise to the top, from daily workouts to calls from random vehicles. Ryan Serhant, Mauricio Umansky, and Mary Fitzgerald.Crystal Cox/Business Insider, The Agency, Aria Askari Many well-known real-estate agents, from Mauricio Umansky to Mary Fitzgerald, share similar habits. From caffeinating to streamlining their time, top agents have told Insider their tips for success. We've rounded up five habits that are easiest for everyday people to carry over in their own lives. What does a typical day as a real-estate agent look like? Most of the country's all-star brokers will say such a thing doesn't exist, but what's clear is that many of the pros at the top of their game share a handful of similar daily habits. Insider scoured the archives to glean what some of the best, from Ryan Serhant and Kirsten Jordan in New York to Mauricio Umansky and Mary Fitzgerald in Los Angeles, do on the daily to get ahead. Whether you're an up-and-coming agent or just an ambitious professional, read on to live like the pros. They caffeinateNest Seekers agent Erin Sykes, whose listings and sales totaled $150 million 2021, starts her day in Florida with two nitro cold brews on an empty stomach, for the extra jolt of energy. Austin, Texas-based agent Kumara Wilcoxon with Kuper Sotheby's International Realty has a morning Earl Grey tea with almond milk, though that comes after two large glasses of lemon water and a celery juice. The morning ritual has helped her sell over $1 billion in her career.And Mary Fitzgerald, the Los Angeles agent who stars on "Selling Sunset" and sells multi-million dollar mansions with The Oppenheim Group, can't get moving without at least two cups of coffee — she's a self-avowed non-morning person.They stay on top of their fitnessFranes Kat zen, a Douglas Elliman agent who specializes in luxury condo sales in New York City and sold $340 million last year, is a former ballerina and stays in shape by taking dance classes at Upper West Side studio Steps on Broadway three times a week. Fellow New York-based Douglas Elliman agent Lisa Simonsen also had a former career in fitness. As such, the agent who sold more than $100 million in 2022 makes sure she works out in her building's gym, usually on a spin bike, every morning.McKenzie Ryan hanging out at the gym.McKenzie RyanFormer Junior Olympian and real-estate wunderkind McKenzie Ryan used to compete on the national level in rhythmic gymnastics. Now with Elliman in New York City, she said she employs similar discipline. "With my background, I need to be physically conditioned. Working out is half mental, half physical," she told Insider in 2021, when she sold over $34 million. "And I do a ton of my business strategy when I'm working out." She also does 1,000 crunches a night.They check the markets, and the news, first thingRyan Serhant wakes up at 4:30 a.m. every day not because he likes it, but "because my career depends on it," he said. The extra-early start time allows him to scan the news and catch up on anything he needs to know before the markets open. It's a proven strategy: He's sold over $5 billion in real estate in his career.In Los Angeles, The Agency's Mauricio Umansky, who sold $298 million in 2021 and stars on Netflix's "Buying Beverly Hills," tunes into Bloomberg, Fox, and CNN to get apprised of what's going on. "I like to hear all the perspectives. I love to see how they report on the same story from a completely different point of view. It's quite entertaining," he said. When she starts her day at home, Sykes always has the TV running in the background to stay apprised of all of the happenings that could affect her markets. "When there's breaking news, you have to be available right then to do the commentary for the different channels," said Sykes, who is also an economist. "I've done commentary from everywhere: from hotel rooms, from my car, from client's homes, from my home, and from studios."They go the extra mile for their clientsTal Alexander, who left Douglas Elliman to found a firm called Official with his brother Oren, entertains clients in his elite condo building: 432 Park Avenue near Manhattan's Central Park.  He stores special meat from butchers, as well as a wine collection, so he always has something special on hand. Together the Alexanders have sold over $1 billion in real estate.Tal Alexander, left, and Oren Alexander.Tal Alexander/FacebookLeave your own party? Sure, if you're Simonsen. A double-booked schedule isn't uncommon in Simonsen's line of work, where agents have to accommodate buyers' limited windows to view homes for sale. As Charlie McDonald, her team's operations lead, explained, "Lisa's clients' time is very valuable. They'll give us the smallest window of time that they can see something, and we have to get them in."Serhant gets a new SUV every year "just to update it," though he said he makes sure his car and clothes are never nicer than his clients'. "The client comes first. And I always want them to feel special," he said.They maximize their time with tech and stay self-disciplinedTo make the most of her day, Miami agent Dina Goldentayer makes sure she's taking the most efficient mode of transportation around the Magic City. That might mean hopping in the golf cart to cruise around to listing appointments on the Venetian Islands, having her driver take her across town, or even arriving at a meeting by helicopter. The Douglas Elliman agent knows what she has to do to succeed: She was the top-selling agent in Miami in 2021 with $750 million in transactions.Dina Goldentayer overlooking the Miami skyline.Dina GoldentayerAaron Kirman, who sells palatial properties with Christie's in Los Angeles and stars on CNBC's "Listing Impossible," developed a new tool called Estate Dynamics that uses artificial intelligence to find people who might be interested in purchasing one of the houses he's selling. The tool then tracks their online behaviors — like their search history and posts on social media — to target them with ads for properties that fit their wants. The goal is to help agents, like himself, close deals more quickly and efficiently. Not that he needs the help: Kirman sold over $725 million in 2020.Eat an indulgent lunch? Not Kirsten Jordan. The one-time "Million Dollar Listing New York" star and Douglas Elliman agent with over $500 million in career sales always makes time for a meal, eschewing quick fixes like protein bars, but makes it a point not to linger too long. She's too eager to get back to work.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytDec 31st, 2022

I"m a florist for a hotel in Hawaii. My job involves figuring out what"s "trendy" — and yes, flowers do go out of style.

"We get inspiration from magazines and online," Hawaii florist Joseph Reyes says. "My favorite part of my job is creating anything I can imagine." Molly O'Brien Joseph Reyes, 51, is the head florist at Halekulani, a hotel on the beach in Honolulu. His floral team consists of four members with a combined experience of more than 40 years.  He told Insider about his career path, how he decorates the hotel, and how he cares for the plants. This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Joseph Reyes, 51, the head florist at Halekulani, a hotel on the beach in Honolulu. It has been edited for length and clarity.My name is Joseph Reyes. I'm 51 years old, and I was born in the Philippines but raised in Honolulu. I've been in the floral industry for about 13 years.I'm currently the head florist at Halekulani, a hotel on the beach in HonoluluI oversee everything floral at this hotel and across the street at our sister property, Halepuna Waikiki by Halekulani. I've been here at Halekulani since 2020. I'm in charge of getting revenue for the hotel by trying to book more weddings, create centerpieces, or any other sort of floral needs. It's a group effort. My small but mighty floral team consists of four members with a combined experience of more than 40 years. When we order flowers, we try to get a variety of different colorsThe tropical flowers are grown on the Island of Hawaii. We try to choose different varieties and colors depending on what's available and in season. We have several local wholesale suppliers that we send flower wish lists to, and they source from the farms and obtain what's available and freshest.Molly O'BrienWe also have a few individual growers I call directly to see if they have anything that I might want to use. Because many of the florals are not grown on Oahu, we also work with many vendors from the neighboring islands for tropical flowers that are grown year round and from California for spring flowers and roses. Our vendor is a local business and has contacts in California and South America.We change our designs based on the seasonFor example, the red tones and a lot of silver and gold accents come out around the holidays to make things feel a little more festive. During the holidays, we have some of the best decorations on the island — it's a big job to fill.What flowers are in fashion definitely changes over time, too. There's always "a trendy look." Certain flowers go in and out of style; carnations have been in and out over the years, for example. They were out, but then Martha Stewart brought them back! Baby's breath also comes and goes depending on the decade. My career has been an evolutionI've always been interested in art and design. I actually graduated from the University of Hawaii, where I majored in fashion apparel design. I worked for a local fashion designer of women's clothing for about eight years during and after college.Molly O'BrienI also worked as an interior designer for three years, and after that, as a florist for 13 years. Fortunately, it's a lot of the same clientele, and with each job I've learned different aspects of design. The arrangements on-site require quite a lot of careWorking in an outdoor environment, we have to be mindful of how long the arrangements will last. We water and check the arrangements daily and take out parts that are a little worn.Working in an outdoor environment is different from an indoor, air-conditioned environment. In the summer it's hotter, so we have to refresh the arrangements more often, which is time-consuming.  My day-to-day schedule changes based on what needs to be doneThe flower shop is open from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m., and someone is here every day during those hours. Each day, we'll check the whole property and see what needs to be freshened up.Molly O'BrienWe also receive shipments of flowers, create new designs, and take care of the dirty work like cleaning out the buckets and taking out the trash. We're responsible for all of the flowers at the on-site restaurants, banquets, weddings, and special events, and we make the arrangements for inside each of the three executive suites on the property. If someone wants to place a special order, they can go through our concierge team. We fill special orders like leis or designing a special flower arrangement for a room.My favorite part of this job is the ability to create anything I can imagineHalekulani has trusted our team to enhance the hotel's appearance and keep our guests happy with our arrangements. We get inspiration from magazines, online, and anywhere else that we can come up with. Molly O'BrienIt's difficult for me to pick a favorite arrangement I've made. All of the arrangements I've posted on our Instagram page (I do our social media, too!). All of our feedback from guests has been positive. Everyone on our crew is always willing to learn something new.Most of the time, people in this industry are already very creative, ready to learn, and willing to adapt to the changing styles in the industry. You can't just keep designing the same thing. Eventually, we do want to get more into the wedding business. As the hotel gets busier, I hope to get more people on our floral team so we can expand our event offerings.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderDec 22nd, 2022