Cincinnati Development Fund secures $50 million in commitments for affordable housing

Cincinnati Development Fund Inc. has secured $50 million in commitments for the Greater Cincinnati Affordable Housing Fund......»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsNov 25th, 2021

Out-of-towner buys $89M FiDi development site; plans 400-unit apartment tower

North Carolina-based affordable housing developer Grubb Fund Management has acquired a 340,000 s/f FiDi development site for $89.15 million. The company – which builds “essential housing” for people earning between 60 and 140 percent of area median income (AMI) – has also gone to contract on a second site in... The post Out-of-towner buys $89M FiDi development site; plans 400-unit apartment tower appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. North Carolina-based affordable housing developer Grubb Fund Management has acquired a 340,000 s/f FiDi development site for $89.15 million. The company – which builds “essential housing” for people earning between 60 and 140 percent of area median income (AMI) – has also gone to contract on a second site in Queens. Grubb is planning to build two new properties under its Link ApartmentsSM flag which together will bring 700 units of middle-market housing to New York City. “Few places have been more impacted by the housing crisis in this country than the New York metropolitan area,” said Clay Grubb, CEO of Grubb Properties. “Our company is dedicated to providing quality rental options for those in the middle of the income spectrum. Link ApartmentsSM and essential housing provide a unique path forward to address New York’s housing crisis, as well as a compelling investment opportunity for investors in our funds.” 111 Washington Street The company has acquired 8 Carlisle (AKA 111 Washington Street) from The Ohebshalom family. It plans to build an approximately 50-story with 400 unit property with 22,000 s/f of ground floor retail. Grubb Properties plans to pursue the Affordable New York Housing Program for the development. Eric Anton at Marcus & Millichap brokered the sale on behalf of the seller. Situated two blocks south of the World Trade Center, the site (general rendering top) is one of the few as-of-right projects in a prime Manhattan location with no problematic tenancy issues, according to Anton. Pink Stone Capital, an LLC connected to Richard Ohebshalom, will serve as a partner in the new development. In Queens, Grubb is in contract to acquire 25-01 Queens Plaza North in Long Island City. It will be a 17-story Link ApartmentsSM community with 317 units, and 9,000 s/f of retail space. The building will include 30 percent affordable units at less than 130 percent of area median income and 70 percent market-rate units under the Affordable Housing New York Program. Daniel Kaplan and Elli Klapper of CBRE represented the seller. 25-01 Queens Plaza North site market in red Located in a Qualified Opportunity Zone, the Queens site is funded by Grubb’s Qualified Opportunity Fund program. The 8 Carlisle location is funded by Grubb’s flagship fund. Grubb Properties is looking at pursuing additional essential housing development opportunities in the New York City metropolitan area. The two communities mark the ongoing expansion of Grubb Properties’ nationally registered Link ApartmentsSM brand. There are currently nine Link Apartments communities in eight cities, totaling 2,262 multifamily units, with 15 additional communities under construction or announced. The communities offer an amenity-rich living experience to residents who want to live near transit, employment, and entertainment venues. The post Out-of-towner buys $89M FiDi development site; plans 400-unit apartment tower appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklySep 27th, 2021

HUD: $143M in Grants Will Support Multifamily Construction for Low-Income Seniors

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) Office of Multifamily Housing Programs recently announced that it has awarded $143 million in grants to non-profit organizations across the country to support the development of new affordable multifamily rental housing along with ongoing project rental assistance for very low-income seniors. The awards were made under […] The post HUD: $143M in Grants Will Support Multifamily Construction for Low-Income Seniors appeared first on RISMedia. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD) Office of Multifamily Housing Programs recently announced that it has awarded $143 million in grants to non-profit organizations across the country to support the development of new affordable multifamily rental housing along with ongoing project rental assistance for very low-income seniors. The awards were made under HUD’s Section 202 Supportive Housing for the Elderly program and will help fund the construction and operation of 1,484 new deeply rent-assisted units for low- and very low-income seniors who will pay rent based on their income.  Several of the grantees will be creating mixed-income communities, building 701 additional affordable and market-rate units as part of these funded projects, for a total of 2,185 homes. “These awards support the Biden-Harris Administration’s commitment to increase housing stability among the nation’s most vulnerable populations, including the very low-income seniors these grants will ultimately help,” said Office of Housing Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Lopa Kolluri in a statement. Section 202 grants provide very low-income elderly persons 62 years of age or older with the opportunity to live independently in an environment that provides support services to meet their unique needs. HUD provides these funds to non-profit organizations in two forms: – Capital Advances: This is funding that covers the cost of developing, acquiring or rehabilitating the development. Repayment is not required as long as the housing remains available for occupancy by very low-income elderly persons for at least 40 years. – Project Rental Assistance Contracts: This is renewable project-based funding which covers the difference between residents’ contributions toward rent and the cost of operating the project. Section 202 program eligibility requires residents to be very low-income or earning less than 50 percent of the area median income. However, most households in the Section 202 program earn less than 30 percent of the median for their area. See the grantees receiving funding awards here. Source: HUD The post HUD: $143M in Grants Will Support Multifamily Construction for Low-Income Seniors appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaSep 23rd, 2021

Bruman secures $66M loan to build 165-unit Astoria apartment tower

SCALE Lending, a Slate Property Group affiliate, has closed on a $65.9 million construction loan to finance the ground up construction of a residential project at 26-25 4th Street in Astoria, Queens Located within walking distance of Hallets Point and Astoria Park, 26-25 4th Street will be a new 165-unit... The post Bruman secures $66M loan to build 165-unit Astoria apartment tower appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. SCALE Lending, a Slate Property Group affiliate, has closed on a $65.9 million construction loan to finance the ground up construction of a residential project at 26-25 4th Street in Astoria, Queens Located within walking distance of Hallets Point and Astoria Park, 26-25 4th Street will be a new 165-unit residential building, 30 percent of which will be affordable housing. Bruman Realty, the development and investment firm led by Joseph Brunner and Abe Mandel, is the developer of the 19-story property. The financing was arranged by The SHB Group. Rendering of the new tower. Bruman Realty bought the site from Goodwill Industries for $14.4 million in November 2020, according to property records. “We’re very excited to work with Bruman Realty, a prolific and experienced developer in the New York City area, on a project that will provide much-needed housing to a growing submarket of Queens,” said Martin Nussbaum, Co-Founder and Principal of Slate Property Group. “We continue to focus our efforts on high quality locations and assets with projects we feel will be successful. This is another example of how we were able to work efficiently on a complex transaction while providing a valuable financing solution for our borrower.” SCALE Lending is Slate’s lending affiliate that directly provides first mortgage financing secured by commercial real estate assets with a focus on senior transitional loans secured by commercial mortgages in the New York Metropolitan area. The post Bruman secures $66M loan to build 165-unit Astoria apartment tower appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklySep 23rd, 2021

Affordable housing at Brookhill Village redevelopment hinges on $20M in public funding

The development group proposing to build new mixed-income housing on the Brookhill Village site near South End is seeking $19.8 million via loans from the city and an affordable-housing fund as well as a grant for site improvements......»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsApr 8th, 2020

Apple launches $150 million affordable housing loan fund and seeks projects to support

Apple rolled out the first new initiative in its $2.5 billion pledge to address the Bay Area’s housing crisis, donating $150 million to Housing Trust Silicon Valley to create an affordable housing development fund. Apple's Affordable Housing Fun.....»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsMar 2nd, 2020

Baltimore"s $20 million affordable housing fund becomes official

The city's renewed push for development of more affordable housing units took a giant step forward Wednesday. An 11-member commission was appointed to oversee the effort by Mayor Catherine Pugh, who established a $20 million affordable housing trust f.....»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsDec 12th, 2018

BFC Partners Closes on 475 Bay Street, Company’s Latest Development Project in SI

Today BFC Partners, the Brooklyn-based mixed use and mixed income developer with active projects in all boroughs and Buffalo, announced the closing of their latest project in Staten Island. 475 Bay Street, a 250,173 square-foot development, will be the first development site in the newly rezoned stretch of Bay Street... The post BFC Partners Closes on 475 Bay Street, Company’s Latest Development Project in SI appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. Today BFC Partners, the Brooklyn-based mixed use and mixed income developer with active projects in all boroughs and Buffalo, announced the closing of their latest project in Staten Island. 475 Bay Street, a 250,173 square-foot development, will be the first development site in the newly rezoned stretch of Bay Street to break ground and will bring 269 residential units with one super’s unit and 9,000 square feet of pedestrian friendly retail to the neighborhood. You can see a rendering of the project here.  “The closing at 475 Bay Street is an exciting milestone in the revitalization of Staten Island’s North Shore. As the first project to break ground on this newly rezoned piece of Bay Street, this development will pave the way for necessary development in the neighborhood,” said Joseph Ferrara, Principal of BFC Partners. “BFC Partners is committed to the borough, and this latest project demonstrates our continued investment in the North Shore of Staten Island.” The residential units are 100% affordable. 131 units will be set aside for tenants whose household income is at or below 80% of AMI, which is $85,920 for a family of three, and 138 units will be set aside for tenants whose household income is at or below 30% of AMI for formerly homeless seniors, which is $25,080 for an older adult living alone.  The total development cost of the project is approximately $151 million, with the New York State Housing Finance Agency (HFA) issuing a first mortgage loan of $99,865,000. The loan is funded from a series of tax-exempt Affordable Housing Revenue Bonds. 475 Bay Street will also receive an annual subsidy for frail and older adult residents from the New York State Empire State Supportive Housing Initiative (ESSHI). The ESSHI subsidized supportive services will be provided by Selfhelp Community Services, Inc. The building will have a variety of top-of-class amenities, including a rooftop recreation area, indoor fitness area, children’s play space, a multifunctional lounge, and unparalleled views of NYC skyline, the harbor and Verrazzano Bridge. 475 Bay Street will also have an older adult multifunction screening room and an older adult outdoor recreation deck, with older adult services also provided by Selfhelp.  “Selfhelp is proud to be part of 475 Bay Street which is bringing affordable housing with services to Staten Island’s North Shore. For decades, Selfhelp has been providing older adults and other vulnerable New Yorkers with affordable housing and services to age with independence and dignity in the neighborhoods they call home. We look forward to bringing SHASAM, Selfhelp Active Services for Aging Model, to 475 Bay Street to provide low-income older adults with the on-site services they need to remain healthy at home.” said Stuart Kaplan, CEO of Selfhelp Community Services. The post BFC Partners Closes on 475 Bay Street, Company’s Latest Development Project in SI appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklyJan 15th, 2022

Phipps Houses Closes on 2nd Phase of redevelopment

Phipps Houses, New York City’s oldest and largest nonprofit developer of affordable housing, has closed on $188 million in construction financing for the second phase of Lambert Houses, a landmark $600 million redevelopment project in the Bronx’s West Farms neighborhood. The ongoing project will entirely rebuild the outdated 1970s complex... The post Phipps Houses Closes on 2nd Phase of redevelopment appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. Phipps Houses, New York City’s oldest and largest nonprofit developer of affordable housing, has closed on $188 million in construction financing for the second phase of Lambert Houses, a landmark $600 million redevelopment project in the Bronx’s West Farms neighborhood. The ongoing project will entirely rebuild the outdated 1970s complex over roughly 15 years, eventually bringing its number of permanently affordable homes to approximately 1,665 — more than double its original number. All Lambert Houses tenants will be offered apartments in the new development. Phipps Houses opened the first phase, a 163-unit apartment building, to residents in August 2019.  The second phase comprises a 16-story building at 2080 Boston Road, with construction financing provided by the New York City Department of Housing Preservation and Development, the New York City Housing Development Corporation’s ELLA Program, along with Citi and the Urban Investment Group within Goldman Sachs Asset Management (“Goldman Sachs”). Designed by Dattner Architects, 2080 Boston Road will include 279 affordable units available for existing Lambert tenants with 42 units homeless households. Construction is expected to begin in January with an expected completion in mid-2024. Phipps Houses has relocated all residents of the now-demolished buildings at 2080 Boston Road in anticipation of the construction of the new building.  “The redevelopment of the Lambert Houses complex is a once in a lifetime opportunity to correct the flaws of the Urban Renewal Era and create better community connections and services for our residents,” said Adam Weinstein, President and CEO of Phipps Houses. “We hope this project will be a model for other large-scale housing providers to see that when you have available land, you can transform a development to a higher aspiration: to produce even more affordable housing and to better serve the residents of the complex.” “The redevelopment of the Lambert Houses is a monumental project that aligns with my priorities of keeping The Bronx affordable for our current residents,” said Bronx Borough President Vanessa Gibson. “With the closing of the second phase of this project, including 279 affordable units for existing Lambert tenants and 42 units for recently homeless individuals, some of our most vulnerable Bronxites as well as our longtime residents will have a new and affordable place to call home, with state-of-the-art amenities. This project is a great addition to the West Farms section of The Bronx and I want to thank Phipps Houses, HPD and HDC who helped make it possible.” “The redevelopment of Lambert Houses exemplifies the City’s commitment to both create and preserve quality affordable housing. Existing residents have the peace of mind that they can remain in an affordable home that is now safer, upgraded, and more energy efficient, while hundreds of additional opportunities open up for New Yorkers looking for an affordable home” said HPD Commissioner Louise Carroll. “I want to commend our partners at Phipps Houses for taking on this ambitious project to significantly improve conditions for existing residents and increase housing opportunities for low-income New Yorkers.” “The expansive redevelopment of Lambert Houses will ultimately bring more than 1,600 permanently affordable homes, along with improved security features, a host of amenities, and community facility space to the Bronx,” said HDC President Eric Enderlin. “Congratulations to all our partners on the closing of the most recent phase of this ambitious effort which will help to revitalize the West Farms community, while ensuring our city remains affordable.” “The Lambert Houses project is a great example of how the public and private sectors can collaborate with communities to drive transformational impact in their neighborhoods,” said Michael Lohr, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “We are proud to partner with Phipps, HPD and HPC to increase the quantity and quality of affordable housing in the City and usher in a new era for the Lambert Houses and the West Farms neighborhood.”  “Citi Community Capital is excited to be a part of the team that is financing the second phase of the redevelopment of Lambert Houses, a unique opportunity to correct well meaning, but flawed projects built in an earlier era,” said Richard Gerwitz, Managing Director of Citi Community Capital. “Phipps Houses has put together a thoughtful redevelopment plan and assembled a financing and development team that will serve this community for years to come.”  The original Lambert Houses complex had a host of increasingly problematic issues, including outdated structural and mechanical systems, poorly designed open space within a superblock layout, and security issues created by a maze-like series of buildings, many interconnected by narrow hallways, with 14 separate addresses. Of the complex’s eventual 1,665 apartments, 728 will serve households that qualify for Section 8, including the current tenants of Lambert Houses. The remaining units will be affordable to households at different levels of Area Median Income. Phipps Houses’ new layout for Lambert was designed to re-integrate the buildings with the streetscape and neighborhood. 2080 Boston Road will offer a range of studios, one, two, three and four-bedroom units with a standalone garage and storage building. Tenants will have access to a landscaped courtyard with a children’s play yard, bike room, exercise room, laundry rooms and a lobby concierge. The new buildings will also feature updated mechanical systems and energy efficiency standards along with a dramatically improved security system.  Lambert Houses is adjacent to the Bronx Zoo and the West Farms Square-East Tremont Avenue 2/5 subway station. The Lambert Houses redevelopment plan was approved through the City’s Uniform Land Use Review Procedure in 2016. The post Phipps Houses Closes on 2nd Phase of redevelopment appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklyJan 13th, 2022

Franklin (BEN) Concludes O"Shaughnessy Asset Management Buyout

Franklin (BEN) strengthens its position as a separately managed accounts provider and boosts customization capabilities by purchasing O'Shaughnessy Asset Management. Franklin Resources, Inc. BEN completed its previously announced acquisition of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, LLC (“OSAM”), a preeminent quantitative asset management firm, thereby reinforcing its position in the separately managed account (SMA) space.Post-acquisition, OSAM continues to retain its brand, while more than 40 of its team members have joined Franklin. Also, OSAM’s intellectual property, investment management processes, and principal business assets have been transferred to Franklin’s Product Solutions division.Through the acquisition, the company will leverage OSAM’s factor-based investment management and custom indexing solution capabilities via the latter’s popular flagship Canvas platform. Since the Canvas platform was rolled out in late 2019, it has seen robust growth, with $2 billion AUM of OSAM’s aggregate $6.5 billion AUM as of Nov 30, 2021.Encouragingly, Canvas facilitates financial advisors to build and manage Custom Indexes in SMAs, which are curated per clients’ particular needs, preferences and objectives. The platform also allows advisors to create investment templates, utilize passive strategies, access factor investing strategies, and apply ESG investing and SRI screens in accordance with clients’ personal beliefs.It will also enable advisors to aptly plan, finalize tax budgets, zero in on realized and unrealized gains and losses, and sell certain positions to create offsets. Canvas platform aside, OSAM’s foothold in factor-based investing will also benefit Franklin.While Franklin is already one of the largest providers in the SMA industry, with $130 billion assets under management (AUM) as of Nov 30, 2021, the buyout will add to its SMA offerings.Management remarked, “Custom Indexing is aligned with our commitment to bringing sophisticated customization to a broader investment audience. This partnership enhances our ability to deliver compelling individualized SMA solutions to clients, advisors and firms.”Over the last couple of years, Franklin has grown through acquisitions, thereby enhancing its foothold. Such acquisitions will support the company in improving and expanding its alternative investments and multi-asset solutions platforms, which will help it provide world-class investment solutions to clients.Notably, in November 2021, Franklin inked an agreement to acquire Lexington Partners, a domineering secondary private equity and co-investment funds’ global manager. The deal will fortify Franklin’s alternative asset competencies apart from complementing its current prowess in real estate, private credit and hedge fund strategies. It comes at a time when investors are progressively stipulating capital across the huge arena of alternative asset offerings.However, overall high net outflows will likely keep the AUM balance under pressure.Shares of the company have gained 8.2% over the past six months compared with 4.8% growth recorded by the industry. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research BEN currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Inorganic Growth Efforts by Other FirmsSeveral other companies from the finance sector are undertaking consolidation efforts to improve competencies in a bid to counter the low-interest-rate environment.In a similar move to enhance M&A advisory service competencies in the digital-infrastructure sector, Citizens Financial Group, Inc. CFG announced a definitive agreement to acquire substantially all assets of DH Capital LLC. DH Capital is a New York-based private investment banking firm catering to companies in the Internet infrastructure, software and next-generation IT services, and communications sectors.The move marks Citizens Financial’s third acquisition over the past four months to augment its corporate advisory team. In September, CFG closed the buyout of Willamette Management Associates and it acquired JMP Group in November.Velocity Financial, Inc. VEL acquired the majority stake in Century Health & Housing Capital. Century is a licensed “Ginnie Mae” issuer and servicer. Century offers government-insured Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgage financing for multi-family housing, senior housing and long-term care/assisted living facilities.The acquisition will help Velocity Financial leverage Century’s well-established platform and diversify Velocity Financial’s revenues with the addition of fee-based origination and servicing income. The buyout adds new products. This along with Velocity Financial’s national origination footprint offers ample development scope for origination growth and the expansion of commercial mortgage product offerings.RBB Bancorp RBB entered a definitive agreement to buy Gateway Bank in a cash transaction valued at $22.9 million in a bid to penetrate the strategic San Francisco Bay Area. The buyout will expand RBB Bancorp’s physical presence in six of nine target markets of Gateway Bank and provide a profitable base to extend the advancement the latter has made in the Bay Area. It is also in line with RBB Bancorp’s aim to establish its relationship-based banking model in the region for the community.As of Sep 30, 2021, Gateway Bank had total assets of $172.4 million, total gross loans of $123.1 million, total deposits of $147.5 million and total tangible equity of $15.5 million. Hence, the acquisition is likely to enhance RBB Bancorp’s balance sheet. Infrastructure Stock Boom to Sweep America A massive push to rebuild the crumbling U.S. infrastructure will soon be underway. It’s bipartisan, urgent, and inevitable. Trillions will be spent. Fortunes will be made. The only question is “Will you get into the right stocks early when their growth potential is greatest?” Zacks has released a Special Report to help you do just that, and today it’s free. Discover 5 special companies that look to gain the most from construction and repair to roads, bridges, and buildings, plus cargo hauling and energy transformation on an almost unimaginable scale.Download FREE: How to Profit from Trillions on Spending for Infrastructure >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Franklin Resources, Inc. (BEN): Free Stock Analysis Report Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG): Free Stock Analysis Report RBB Bancorp (RBB): Free Stock Analysis Report Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJan 5th, 2022

Tesla Will Recouple With Reality When The Bulls Least Expect It

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended December 31, 2021, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Tesla’s Absurd Diluted Market Cap We remain short the biggest bubble in modern stock market history, Tesla Inc. (TSLA), which has a completely absurd diluted market cap of almost […] Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended December 31, 2021, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get Our Activist Investing Case Study! Get the entire 10-part series on our in-depth study on activist investing in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or print it out to read anywhere! Sign up below! (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Tesla's Absurd Diluted Market Cap We remain short the biggest bubble in modern stock market history, Tesla Inc. (TSLA), which has a completely absurd diluted market cap of almost $1.2 trillion despite a steadily sliding share of the world’s EV market and a share of the overall auto market that’s only around 1.1% (yes, one POINT one percent). At some point when momentum-riding Tesla bulls (or, for that matter, bears) least expect it, TSLA will recouple with “reality,” and that’s why I continue to maintain a short position. So here’s “reality”… Tesla has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of electric car technology, while existing automakers—unlike Tesla­—have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably. Excluding sunsetting emission credit sales Tesla is barely profitable. Growth in sequential unit demand for Tesla’s cars is at a crawl relative to expectations. Elon Musk is a pathological liar who under the terms of his SEC settlement cannot deny having committed securities fraud. Many Tesla bulls sincerely believe that ten years from now the company will be twice the size of Volkswagen or Toyota, thereby selling around 21 million cars a year (up from the current one million). To illustrate how utterly clueless this is, going from a million cars a year today to 21 million in ten years means Tesla would have to add a brand new 500,000 car/year factory with sold out production EVERY single quarter for ten years! To do this even in twenty years would require adding a new factory with sold out production every six months, at which point Tesla would then be approximately twice the size of Toyota (current market cap: $257 billion) or Volkswagen (current market cap: $130 billion), making a Tesla twenty times its current size worth perhaps $500 billion in twenty years. If you discount that $500 billion back by 15% a year (which is likely a much smaller return than any Tesla bull expects) for twenty years, you get a net present value for Tesla stock of approximately $30 a share, down over 97% from 2021’s closing price. That’s why when idiot Tesla bulls look at the company’s current large trailing percentage growth from its recent tiny base and extrapolate that into the future they’re being, well… idiot Tesla bulls! Q3 Deliveries In October Tesla reported Q3 deliveries of 241,000 cars, a 40,000-unit gain over Q2 that’s a rounding error for an auto company trading at even one-tenth of Tesla’s valuation. (For Q4 the gain is expected to be another 45-50,000.) If in any quarter GM or VW or Toyota sold 2.04 million vehicles instead of 2 million or 1.96 million, no one would pay the slightest bit of attention to the difference. Seeing as Tesla is now being valued at over fourteen GMs, it’s time (as noted above) to start looking at its relatively tiny numerical sequential sales growth, rather than Wall Street’s sell-side hype of “percentage off a small base.” In other words, if you want to be valued at a giant multiple of “the big boys,” you should be treated as a big boy. Perhaps the biggest reason Tesla has recently been able to post marginally increasing sequential quarterly deliveries is because competitors’ production (and thus inventories) are at the lowest level in decades due to the massive chip shortage, thereby eliminating a number of “Tesla alternatives.” Meanwhile, Tesla is enjoying record production because Musk (a notorious “corner-cutter”) is apparently willing to substitute untested, non-auto-grade chips for the more durable chips he can’t get; please see my Twitter post about this. A favorite hype story from Tesla bulls has been “the China market” and its “record” number of 73,659 Q3 deliveries there. Let’s put this in perspective: this was only around 4000 more cars than in Q1 and only around 11,000 more than in Q2—again, these are “growth” rounding errors. (Thanks to drastically slashed production from chip-starved competitors, look for around 30,000 more in Q4.) And that “record” Q3 China quarter gave it just 1.5% of the overall passenger vehicle market and just 11% of the BEV market, and it had so much excess capacity that it exported tens of thousands of cars to Europe. Remember when Musk claimed that Tesla’s Chinese domestic demand alone would need multiple factories to satisfy? Ah, the good old days! Meanwhile, Tesla remains a lousy business. In its Q3 earnings report the company claimed it made around $1.3 billion in free cash flow (defined as operating cash flow less capex). However, this number appears to be entirely due to working capital adjustments and not from the business itself. Let me explain: Tesla claimed operating cash flow of around $3.2 billion for the quarter, but this came with the benefit of accounts payable increasing by $702 million, receivables declining by $167 million and accrued liabilities up by $665 million while (detrimentally) prepaid expenses increased by $144 million. Adjusting for that massive net working capital benefit, operating cash flow was only a bit over $1.8 billion and with capex at $1.8 billion it means Tesla’s Q3 free cash flow was essentially zero, and if you deduct stock comp (a non-cash item paid through share dilution) it was around negative $500 million. Also in its Q3 report Tesla claimed it made around $1.45 billion in net income after excluding $279 million of pure-profit emission credit sales (excluded because they’ll almost entirely disappear some time next year when other automakers will have enough EVs of their own), and after adding back a $50 million Bitcoin write-down. However, that earnings number also includes what I estimate to be Tesla’s usual $300 million or so in unsustainably low warranty provisioning, and after adjusting for that and assuming no other fraudulent accounting, Tesla only earned around $1.06/share, which annualizes to $4.24. An auto industry PE multiple of 10x would thus make TSLA worth around $42/share (admittedly, more than the “$0” I once expected), while a “growth multiple” of 20x would value it at $84, which is a 92% discount to December’s closing price of around $1057. And before you tell me that a 100% premium to the industry’s PE ratio isn’t enough, keep in mind that—as noted earlier—Tesla’s sequential unit growth is an auto industry rounding error. In fact, one could argue that Tesla’s multiple should carry a discount, considering the massive legal and financial liabilities continually generated by its pathologically lying CEO. Full Self Driving Meanwhile Tesla continues to sell (and book cash flow, if not accounting revenue from) its fraudulent & dangerous so-called “Full Self Driving.” In a sane regulatory environment Tesla having done this for five years now… …would be considered “consumer fraud,” and indeed the regulatory tide may finally be turning, as in August two U.S. Senators demanded an FTC investigation and in October the NHTSA appointed a harsh critic of this deadly product to advise on its regulation. (For all known Tesla deaths see here.) Are major write-downs and refunds on the way, killing the company’s slight “claimed profitability”? Stay tuned! Meanwhile, Guidehouse Insights continues to rate Tesla dead last among autonomous competitors: Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market some time in 2022 (as is now expected), even if Tesla makes some of its own, other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone. Tesla Build Quality Remains Awful Meanwhile, Tesla build quality remains awful (it ranks second-to-last in the latest Consumer Reports reliability survey and in the bottom 10% of the latest J.D. Power survey) and its worst-rated Model Y faces current (or imminent) competition from the much better built electric Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Volkswagen ID.4, Ford Mustang Mach E, Nissan Ariya, Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, the great new BMW i4 and the premium version of Volkswagen’s ID.3 (in Europe), plus multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Audi e-tron (substantially improved for 2022!) and Porsche Taycan outsell the Models S & X (and the newly updated Tesla models with their dated exteriors and idiotic shifters & steering wheels won’t change this), while the spectacular new Mercedes EQS, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make the Tesla Model S look like a fast Yugo, while the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX does the same to the Model X. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as it will enter a dogfight of a market; in fact, Ford’s terrific 2022 all-electric F-150 Lightning now has nearly 200,000 retail reservations (plus many more fleet reservations), Rivian’s pick-up has gotten fantastic early reviews, and in January GM will introduce its electric Silverado. Regarding safety, as noted earlier in this letter, Tesla continues to deceptively sell its hugely dangerous so-called “Autopilot” system, which Consumer Reports has completely eviscerated; God only knows how many more people this monstrosity unleashed on public roads will kill despite the NTSB condemning it. Elsewhere in safety, in 2020 the Chinese government forced the recall of tens of thousands of Teslas for a dangerous suspension defect the company spent years trying to cover up, and now Tesla has been hit by a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. for the same defect. Tesla also knowingly sold cars that it knew were a fire hazard and did the same with solar systems, and after initially refusing to do so voluntarily, it was forced to recall a dangerously defective touchscreen. In other words, when it comes to the safety of customers and innocent bystanders, Tesla is truly one of the most vile companies on Earth. Meanwhile the massive number of lawsuits of all types against the company continues to escalate. So Here Is Tesla's Competition In Cars (Note: These Links Are Regularly Updated)... Porsche Taycan Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo Porsche Macan Electric SUV Officially Coming in 2023 Volkswagen ID.3 Headlines VW's Electrified Future Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen ID.Buzz electric van teased ahead of 2022 launch Volkswagen ID 6 to arrive with 435-mile range in 2023 Volkswagen Aero B: new electric Passat equivalent spied VW’s Cupra brand counts on performance for Born EV Cupra, VW brand to get entry-level battery-powered cars Audi e-tron Audi e-tron Sportback Audi E-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron confirmed for 2022 launch Audi previews long-range A6 e-tron EV Audi TT set to morph into all-electric crossover Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 spotted ahead of 2022 launch Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS: the first electric vehicle in the luxury class Mercedes EQS SUV takes shape Mercedes-Benz unveils EQE electric sedan with impressive 400-mile range Mercedes EQE SUV to rival BMW iX and Tesla Model X Mercedes EQC electric SUV available now in Europe & China Mercedes-Benz Launches the EQV, its First Fully-Electric Passenger Van Mercedes-Benz EQB Makes Its European Debut, US Sales Confirmed Mercedes-Benz unveils EQA electric SUV with 265 miles of range and ~$46,000 price Ford Mustang Mach-E Available Now Ford F-150 Lightning electric pick-up available 2022 Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to offer EV versions of Explorer, Aviator, ‘rugged SUVs' Volvo Polestar 2 Polestar 3 SUV Production Design Revealed. The US-built electric SUV will debut in 2022. Volvo XC40 Recharge Volvo C40 electric sedan to challenge Tesla Model 3, VW ID3 Polestar 3 will be an electric SUV that shares its all-new platform with next Volvo XC90 Chevy updates, expands Bolt EV family as price drops Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq Available Spring 2022 GMC ALL-ELECTRIC SUPERTRUCK HUMMER EV GM to build electric Silverado in Detroit with estimated range of more than 400 miles GMC to launch electric Hummer SUV in 2023 GM will offer 30 all-electric models globally by 2025 GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services Nissan vows to hop back on EV podium with Ariya Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now Nissan Unveils $18 Billion Electric-Vehicle Strategy BMW leads off EV offensive with iX3 BMW expands EV offerings with iX tech flagship and i4 sedan BMW i7 Confirmed for 2022 Launch 2022 BMW iX1 electric SUV spied Rivian R1T Is the Most Remarkable Pickup We’ve Ever Driven Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises 'heart-of-the-market SUV' from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Alfa Romeo is latest Stellantis brand to get all-electric future Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Maserati to launch electric sports car Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota’s Electric bZ4X Goes On Sale in Spring 2022 Toyota will have lineup of 30 full EVs by 2030; Lexus will be all-electric brand Opel sees electric Corsa as key EV entry 2021 Vauxhall Mokka revealed as EV with sharp looks, massive changes Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV offers range of power, battery sizes Electric Skoda Enyaq coupe to muscle-in on Tesla Model 3 Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals Nio to launch in five more European countries after Norway BYD will launch electric SUV in Europe The Lucid Air Achieves an Estimated EPA Range of 517 Miles on a Single Charge Bentley converting to electric-only brand All-electric Rolls-Royce Spectre to launch in 2023 – firm to be EV-only by 2030 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Meet the Canoo, a Subscription-Only EV Pod Coming in 2021 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Former Saab factory gets new life building solar-powered Sono Sion electric cars Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China... How VW Group plans to dominate China's EV market VW Goes Head-to-Head With Tesla in China With New ID.4 Crozz Electric SUV Volkswagen’s ID.3 EV to be produced by JVs with SAIC, FAW in 2021 2022 VW ID.6 Revealed With Room For Seven And Two Electric Motors China-built Audi e-tron rolls off production line in Changchun Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai Audi will build Q4 e-tron in China Audi Q5 e-tron Confirmed For China Audi in cooperation company for local electric car production with FAW FAW Hongqi starts selling electric SUV with 400km range for $32,000 FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025 BYD goes after market left open by Tesla with four cheaper models for budget-conscious buyers BYD said to launch premium NEV brand ‘Dolphin’ in 2022 Top of Form Bottom of Form Daimler & BYD launch DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market Geely announces premium EV brand Zeekr Geely, Mercedes-Benz launch $780 million JV to make electric smart-branded cars Mercedes styled Denza X 7-seat electric SUV to hit market Mercedes ‘makes mark’ with China-built EQC BMW, Great Wall to build new China plant for electric cars BAIC Goes Electric, & Establishes Itself as a Force in China’s New Energy Vehicle Future BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Ford MUSTANG MACH-E ROLLS OFF ASSEMBLY LINE IN CHINA FOR LOCAL CUSTOMERS Lexus to launch EV in China taking on VW and Tesla GAC Aion about to start volume production of 1,000-km range AION LX GAC Toyota to ramp up annual capacity by 400,000 NEVs GAC kicks off delivery of HYCAN 007 all-electric SUV Nio – Ready For Tomorrow Nio steps up plans for mass-market brand to compete with VW, Toyota Xpeng Motors sells multiple EV models SAIC-GM to build Ultium EV platform in Wuhan Chevrolet Menlo Electric Vehicle Launched in China Buick Introduces New VELITE 6 EV with Extended Range Buick Velite 7 EV And Velite 6 PHEV Launch In China Dongfeng launches the all-electric Voyah  PSA to accelerate rollout of electrified vehicles in China SAIC, Alibaba-backed EV brand IM begins presale of first model L7 Hyundai Motor Transforming Chongqing Factory into Electric Vehicle Plant Polestar said to plan China showroom expansion to compete with Tesla Jaguar Land Rover's Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production Renault reveals series urban e-SUV K-ZE for China Renault & Brilliance detail electric van lineup for China Renault forms China electric vehicle venture with JMCG Honda to start sales of new EV-branded vehicles in China in 2022 Geely launches new electric car brand 'Geometry' – will launch 10 EVs by 2025 Geely, Foxconn form partnership to build cars for other automakers Fiat Chrysler, Foxconn Team Up for Electric Vehicles Baidu to create an intelligent EV company with automaker Geely Leapmotor starts presale of C11 electric SUV on Jan. 1 2021 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weltmeister Chery Seres Enovate China's cute Ora R1 electric hatch offers a huge range for less than US$9,000 Singulato JAC Motors releases new product planning, including many NEVs Seat to make purely electric cars with JAC VW in China Iconiq Motors Hozon Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia CHJ Automotive begins to accept orders of Leading Ideal ONE Infiniti to launch Chinese-built EV in 2022 Human Horizons Chinese smartphone giant Xiaomi to launch electric car business with $10 billion investment Lifan Technology to roll out three EV models with swappable batteries in 2021 Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Autonomous Driving... Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Fiat Chrysler, Waymo expand self-driving partnership for passenger, delivery vehicles Waymo and Lyft partner to scale self-driving robotaxi service in Phoenix Volvo, Waymo partner to build self-driving vehicles Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car Renault, Nissan partner with Waymo for self-driving vehicles Geely’s Zeekr, Waymo partner on autonomous ride-hailing vehicle for the U.S. market Cruise and GM Team Up with Microsoft to Commercialize Self-Driving Vehicles Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle Honda launching Level 3 autonomous cars Volkswagen moves ahead with Autonomous Driving R&D for Mobility as a Service Volkswagen teams up with Microsoft to accelerate the development of automated driving VW taps Baidu's Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China Ford “Blue Cruise” ARGO AI AND FORD TO LAUNCH SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES ON LYFT NETWORK Hyundai and Kia Invest in Aurora Toyota, Denso form robotaxi partnership with Aurora Aptiv and Hyundai Motor Group complete formation of autonomous driving joint venture Amazon’s Zoox unveils electric robotaxi that can travel up to 75 mph Nvidia and Mercedes Team Up to Make Next-Gen Vehicles Daimler's heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way SoftBank, Toyota's self-driving car venture adds Mazda, Suzuki, Subaru Corp, Isuzu Daihatsu  Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars Mobileye and Geely to Offer Most Robust Driver Assistance Features Mobileye Starts Testing Self-Driving Vehicles in Germany Mobileye and NIO Partner to Bring Level 4 Autonomous Vehicles to Consumers Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Nissan gives Japan version of Infiniti Q50 hands-free highway driving Hyundai to start autonomous ride-sharing service in Calif. Receives Approval for Paid Autonomous Robotaxi Services in Beijing Baidu kicks off its robotaxi business, after getting the OK to charge fees in Beijing Toyota to join Baidu's open-source self-driving platform Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions Volvo will provide cars for Didi's self-driving test fleet BMW and Tencent to develop self-driving car technology together BMW, NavInfo bolster partnership in HD map service for autonomous cars in China GM Invests $300 M in Momenta to deliver self-driving technologies in China FAW Hongqi readies electric SUV offering Level 4 autonomous driving Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture Huawei teams up with BAIC BJEV, Changan, GAC to co-launch self-driving car brands GAC Aion, DiDi Autonomous Driving to co-develop driverless NEV model BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars Xpeng releases autonomous features for highway driving Nuro Becomes First Driverless Car Delivery Service in California Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks ZF autonomous EV venture names first customer Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4 Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public Mitsubishi Electric to Exhibit Autonomous-driving Technologies in New xAUTO Test Vehicle Apple acquires self-driving startup Motional to begin robotaxi testing with Hyundai Ioniq 5 in Los Angeles Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving Great Wall’s autonomous driving arm receives investment from Meituan, Iveco to start L4 autonomous heavy-duty truck test in Europe, China T3 Mobility, IDRIVERPLUS to pilot Robotaxi operation in Suzhou with autonomous+manual model Here’s Where Tesla’s Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells... Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe How GM's Ultium Battery Will Help It Commit to an Electric Future GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems Ford, SK Innovation announce EV battery joint venture BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis, LG Energy Solution to form battery JV for N. American market Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Toyota to build plant in N.C. capable of making up to 1.2M batteries a year Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner UK companies AMTE Power and Britishvolt plan $4.9 billion investment in battery plants Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries Daimler Morrow Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Charging Networks... Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America is spending $2 billion building a high-speed U.S. charging network 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM to distribute up to 10 chargers to each of its dealerships starting early 2022 General Motors and EVgo Boost Build Plan for High Power Fast Chargers Across the US Circle K Owner Plans Electric-Car Charging Push in U.S., Canada 191 U.S. Porsche dealers are installing 350kw chargers ChargePoint to equip Daimler dealers with electric car chargers GM and Bechtel plan to build thousands of electric car charging stations across the US Ford introduces 12,000 station charging network, teams with Amazon on home installation Shell Plans To Deploy Around 500,000 Charging Points Globally By 2025 Petro-Canada Introduces Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta is rolling out a free charging network Ionity Europe E.ON and Virta launch one of the largest intelligent EV charging networks in Europe Volkswagen plans 36,000 charging points for electric cars throughout Europe Smatric has over 400 charging points in Austria Allego has hundreds of chargers in Europe PodPoint UK charging stations BP Chargemaster/Polar is building stations across the UK Instavolt is rolling out a UK charging network Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe Aral To Install Over 100 Ultra-Fast Chargers In Germany Deutsche Telekom launches installation of charging network for e-cars Total to build 1,000 high-powered charging points at 300 European service-stations NIO teams up with China’s State Grid to build battery charging, swapping stations Volkswagen-based CAMS launches supercharging stations in China Volkswagen, FAW Group, JAC Motors, Star Charge formally announce new EV charging JV BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales BP, Didi Jump on Electric-Vehicle Charging Bandwagon Evie rolls out ultrafast charging network in Australia Evie Networks To Install 42 Ultra-Fast Charging Sites In Australia And Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Storage Batteries... Panasonic Samsung LG BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Bosch Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Schneider Electric Sonnen Kyocera Generac Kokam NantEnergy Eaton Nissan Tesvolt Kreisel Leclanche Lockheed Martin EOS Energy Storage ESS UET electrIQ Power Belectric Stem ENGIE Redflow Renault Primus Power Simpliphi Power redT Energy Storage Murata Bluestorage Adara Blue Planet Tabuchi Electric Aggreko Orison Moixa Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric Schmid 24M Ecoult Innolith LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor Thanks and Happy New Year, Mark Spiegel Updated on Jan 3, 2022, 11:25 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkJan 3rd, 2022

2021 Greatest Hits: The Most Popular Articles Of The Past Year And A Look Ahead

2021 Greatest Hits: The Most Popular Articles Of The Past Year And A Look Ahead One year ago, when looking at the 20 most popular stories of 2020, we said that the year would be a very tough act to follow as there "could not have been more regime shifts, volatility moments, and memes than 2020." And yet despite the exceedingly high bar for 2021, the year did not disappoint and proved to be a successful contender, and if judging by the sheer breadth of narratives, stories, surprises, plot twists and unexpected developments, 2021 was even more memorable and event-filled than 2020. Where does one start? While covid was the story of 2020, the pandemic that emerged out of a (Fauci-funded) genetic lab team in Wuhan, China dominated newsflow, politics and capital markets for the second year in a row. And while the biggest plot twist of 2020 was Biden's victory over Trump in the presidential election (it took the pandemic lockdowns and mail-in ballots to hand the outcome to Biden), largely thanks to Covid, Biden failed to hold to his biggest presidential promise of defeating covid, and not only did he admit in late 2021 that there is "no Federal solution" to covid waving a white flag of surrender less than a year into his presidency, but following the recent emergence of the Xi, pardon Omicron variant, the number of covid cases in the US has just shattered all records. The silver lining is not only that deaths and hospitalizations have failed to follow the number of cases, but that the scaremongering narrative itself is starting to melt in response to growing grassroots discontent with vaccine after vaccine and booster after booster, which by now it is clear, do nothing to contain the pandemic. And now that it is clear that omicron is about as mild as a moderate case of the flu, the hope has finally emerged that this latest strain will finally kill off the pandemic as it becomes the dominant, rapidly-spreading variant, leading to worldwide herd immunity thanks to the immune system's natural response. Yes, it may mean billions less in revenue for Pfizer and Moderna, but it will be a colossal victory for the entire world. The second biggest story of 2021 was undoubtedly the scourge of soaring inflation, which contrary to macrotourist predictions that it would prove "transitory", refused to do so and kept rising, and rising, and rising, until it hit levels not seen since the Volcker galloping inflation days of the 1980s. The only difference of course is that back then, the Fed Funds rate hit 20%. Now it is at 0%, and any attempts to hike aggressively will lead to a horrific market crash, something the Fed knows very well. Whether this was due to supply-chain blockages and a lack of goods and services pushing prices higher, or due to massive stimulus pushing demand for goods - and also prices - higher, or simply the result of a record injection of central bank liquidity into the system, is irrelevant but what does matter is that it got so bad that even Biden, facing a mauling for his Democratic party in next year's midterm elections, freaked out about soaring prices and pushed hard to lower the price of gasoline, ordering releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and vowing to punish energy companies that dare to make a profit, while ordering Powell to contain the surge in prices even if means the market is hit. Unfortunately for Biden, the market will be hit even as inflation still remain red hot for much of the coming year. And speaking of markets, while 2022 may be a year when the piper finally gets paid, 2021 was yet another blockbuster year for risk assets, largely on the back of the continued global response to the 2020 covid pandemic, when as we wrote last year, we saw "the official arrival of global Helicopter Money, tens of trillions in fiscal and monetary stimulus, an overhaul of the global economy punctuated by an unprecedented explosion in world debt, an Orwellian crackdown on civil liberties by governments everywhere, and ultimately set the scene for what even the World Economic Forum called simply "The Great Reset." Yes, the staggering liquidity injections that started in 2020, continued throughout 2021 and the final tally is that after $3 trillion in emergency liquidity injections in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic to stabilize the world, the Fed injected almost $2 trillion in the subsequent period, of which $1.5 trillion in 2021, a year where economists were "puzzled" why inflation was soaring. This, of course, excludes the tens of trillions of monetary stimulus injected by other central banks as well as the boundless fiscal stimulus that was greenlighted with the launch of helicopter money (i.e., MMT) in 2020. It's also why with inflation running red hot and real rates the lowest they have ever been, everyone was forced to rush into the "safety" of stocks (or stonks as they came to be known among GenZ), and why after last year's torrid stock market returns, the S&P rose another 27% in 2021 and up a staggering 114% from the March 2020 lows, in the process trouncing all previous mega-rallies (including those in 1929, 1938, 1974 and 2009)... ... making this the third consecutive year of double-digit returns. This reminds us of something we said last year: "it's almost as if the world's richest asset owners requested the covid pandemic." A year later, we got confirmation for this rhetorical statement, when we calculated that in the 18 months since the covid pandemic, the richest 1% of US society have seen their net worth increase by over $30 trillion. As a result, the US is now officially a banana republic where the middle 60% of US households by income - a measure economists use as a definition of the middle class - saw their combined assets drop from 26.7% to 26.6% of national wealth as of June, the lowest in Federal Reserve data, while for the first time the super rich had a bigger share, at 27%. Yes, the 1% now own more wealth than the entire US middle class, a definition traditionally reserve for kleptocracies and despotic African banana republics. It wasn't just the rich, however: politicians the world over would benefit from the transition from QE to outright helicopter money and MMT which made the over monetization of deficits widely accepted in the blink of an eye. The common theme here is simple: no matter what happens, capital markets can never again be allowed to drop, regardless of the cost or how much more debt has to be incurred. Indeed, as we look back at the news barrage over the past year, and past decade for that matter, the one thing that becomes especially clear amid the constant din of markets, of politics, of social upheaval and geopolitical strife - and now pandemics -  in fact a world that is so flooded with constant conflicting newsflow and changing storylines that many now say it has become virtually impossible to even try to predict the future, is that despite the people's desire for change, for something original and untried, the world's established forces will not allow it and will fight to preserve the broken status quo at any price - even global coordinated shutdowns - which is perhaps why it always boils down to one thing - capital markets, that bedrock of Western capitalism and the "modern way of life", where control, even if it means central planning the likes of which have not been seen since the days of the USSR, and an upward trajectory must be preserved at all costs, as the alternative is a global, socio-economic collapse. And since it is the daily gyrations of stocks that sway popular moods the interplay between capital markets and politics has never been more profound or more consequential. The more powerful message here is the implicit realization and admission by politicians, not just Trump who had a penchant of tweeting about the S&P every time it rose, but also his peers on both sides of the aisle, that the stock market is now seen as the consummate barometer of one's political achievements and approval. Which is also why capital markets are now, more than ever, a political tool whose purpose is no longer to distribute capital efficiently and discount the future, but to manipulate voter sentiments far more efficiently than any fake Russian election interference attempt ever could. Which brings us back to 2021 and the past decade, which was best summarized by a recent Bill Blain article who said that "the last 10-years has been a story of massive central banking distortion to address the 2008 crisis. Now central banks face the consequences and are trapped. The distortion can’t go uncorrected indefinitely." He is right: the distortion will eventually collapse especially if the Fed follows through with its attempt rate hikes some time in mid-2020, but so far the establishment and the "top 1%" have been successful - perhaps the correct word is lucky - in preserving the value of risk assets: on the back of the Fed's firehose of liquidity the S&P500 returned an impressive 27% in 2021, following a 15.5% return in 2020 and 28.50% in 2019. It did so by staging the greatest rally off all time from the March lows, surpassing all of the 4 greatest rallies off the lows of the past century (1929,1938, 1974, and 2009). Yet this continued can-kicking by the establishment - all of which was made possible by the covid pandemic and lockdowns which served as an all too convenient scapegoat for the unprecedented response that served to propel risk assets (and fiat alternatives such as gold and bitcoin) to all time highs - has come with a price... and an increasingly higher price in fact. As even Bank of America CIO Michael Hartnett admits, Fed's response to the the pandemic "worsened inequality" as the value of financial assets - Wall Street -  relative to economy - Main Street - hit all-time high of 6.3x. And while the Fed was the dynamo that has propelled markets higher ever since the Lehman collapse, last year certainly had its share of breakout moments. Here is a sampling. Gamestop and the emergence of meme stonks and the daytrading apes: In January markets were hypnotized by the massive trading volumes, rolling short squeezes and surging share prices of unremarkable established companies such as consoles retailer GameStop and cinema chain AMC and various other micro and midcap names. What began as a discussion on untapped value at GameStop on Reddit months earlier by Keith Gill, better known as Roaring Kitty, morphed into a hedge fund-orchestrated, crowdsourced effort to squeeze out the short position held by a hedge fund, Melvin Capital. The momentum flooded through the retail market, where daytraders shunned stocks and bought massive out of the money calls, sparking rampant "gamma squeezes" in the process forcing some brokers to curb trading. Robinhood, a popular broker for day traders and Citadel's most lucrative "subsidiary", required a cash injection to withstand the demands placed on it by its clearing house. The company IPOed later in the year only to see its shares collapse as it emerged its business model was disappointing hollow absent constant retail euphoria. Ultimately, the market received a crash course in the power of retail investors on a mission. Ultimately, "retail favorite" stocks ended the year on a subdued note as the trading frenzy from earlier in the year petered out, but despite underperforming the S&P500, retail traders still outperformed hedge funds by more than 100%. Failed seven-year Treasury auction:  Whereas auctions of seven-year US government debt generally spark interest only among specialists, on on February 25 2021, one such typically boring event sparked shockwaves across financial markets, as the weakest demand on record hit prices across the whole spectrum of Treasury bonds. The five-, seven- and 10-year notes all fell sharply in price. Researchers at the Federal Reserve called it a “flash event”; we called it a "catastrophic, tailing" auction, the closest thing the US has had to a failed Trasury auction. The flare-up, as the FT put it, reflects one of the most pressing investor concerns of the year: inflation. At the time, fund managers were just starting to realize that consumer price rises were back with a vengeance — a huge threat to the bond market which still remembers the dire days of the Volcker Fed when inflation was about as high as it is today but the 30Y was trading around 15%. The February auaction also illustrated that the world’s most important market was far less liquid and not as structurally robust as investors had hoped. It was an extreme example of a long-running issue: since the financial crisis the traditional providers of liquidity, a group of 24 Wall Street banks, have pulled back because of higher costs associated with post-2008 capital requirements, while leaving liquidity provision to the Fed. Those banks, in their reduced role, as well as the hedge funds and high-frequency traders that have stepped into their place, have tended to withdraw in moments of market volatility. Needless to say, with the Fed now tapering its record QE, we expect many more such "flash" episodes in the bond market in the year ahead. The arch ego of Archegos: In March 2021 several banks received a brutal reminder that some of family offices, which manage some $6 trillion in wealth of successful billionaires and entrepreneurs and which have minimal reporting requirements, take risks that would make the most serrated hedge fund manager wince, when Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management imploded in spectacular style. As we learned in late March when several high-flying stocks suddenly collapsed, Hwang - a former protege of fabled hedge fund group Tiger Management - had built up a vast pile of leverage using opaque Total Return Swaps with a handful of banks to boost bets on a small number of stocks (the same banks were quite happy to help despite Hwang’s having been barred from US markets in 2013 over allegations of an insider-trading scheme, as he paid generously for the privilege of borrowing the banks' balance sheet). When one of Archegos more recent bets, ViacomCBS, suddenly tumbled it set off a liquidation cascade that left banks including Credit Suisse and Nomura with billions of dollars in losses. Conveniently, as the FT noted, the damage was contained to the banks rather than leaking across financial markets, but the episode sparked a rethink among banks over how to treat these clients and how much leverage to extend. The second coming of cryptos: After hitting an all time high in late 2017 and subsequently slumping into a "crypto winter", cryptocurrencies enjoyed a huge rebound in early 2021 which sent their prices soaring amid fears of galloping inflation (as shown below, and contrary to some financial speculation, the crypto space has traditionally been a hedge either to too much liquidity or a hedge to too much inflation). As a result, Bitcoin rose to a series of new record highs that culminated at just below $62,000, nearly three times higher than their previous all time high. But the smooth ride came to a halt in May when China’s crackdown on the cryptocurrency and its production, or “mining”, sparked the first serious crash of 2021. The price of bitcoin then collapsed as much as 30% on May 19, hitting a low of $30,000 amid a liquidation of levered positions in chaotic trading conditions following a warning from Chinese authorities of tighter curbs ahead. A public acceptance by Tesla chief and crypto cheerleader Elon Musk of the industry’s environmental impact added to the declines. However, as with all previous crypto crashes, this one too proved transitory, and prices resumed their upward trajectory in late September when investors started to price in the launch of futures-based bitcoin exchange traded funds in the US. The launch of these contracts subsequently pushed bitcoin to a new all-time high in early November before prices stumbled again in early December, this time due to a rise in institutional ownership when an overall drop in the market dragged down cryptos as well. That demonstrated the growing linkage between Wall Street and cryptocurrencies, due to the growing sway of large investors in digital markets. China's common prosperity crash: China’s education and tech sectors were one of the perennial Wall Street darlings. Companies such as New Oriental, TAL Education as well as Alibaba and Didi had come to be worth billions of dollars after highly publicized US stock market flotations. So when Beijing effectively outlawed swaths of the country’s for-profit education industry in July 2021, followed by draconian anti-trust regulations on the country's fintech names (where Xi Jinping also meant to teach the country's billionaire class a lesson who is truly in charge), the short-term market impact was brutal. Beijing’s initial measures emerged as part of a wider effort to make education more affordable as part of president Xi Jinping’s drive for "common prosperity" but that quickly raised questions over whether growth prospects across corporate China are countered by the capacity of the government to overhaul entire business models overnight. Sure enough, volatility stemming from the education sector was soon overshadowed by another set of government reforms related to common prosperity, a crackdown on leverage across the real estate sector where the biggest casualty was Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer. The company, whose boss was not long ago China's 2nd richest man, was engulfed by a liquidity crisis in the summer that eventually resulted in a default in early December. Still, as the FT notes, China continues to draw in huge amounts of foreign capital, pushing the Chinese yuan to end 2021 at the strongest level since May 2018, a major hurdle to China's attempts to kickstart its slowing economy, and surely a precursor to even more monetary easing. Natgas hyperinflation: Natural gas supplanted crude oil as the world’s most important commodity in October and December as prices exploded to unprecedented levels and the world scrambled for scarce supplies amid the developed world's catastrophic transition to "green" energy. The crunch was particularly acute in Europe, which has become increasingly reliant on imports. Futures linked to TTF, the region’s wholesale gas price, hit a record €137 per megawatt hour in early October, rising more than 75%. In Asia, spot liquefied natural gas prices briefly passed the equivalent of more than $320 a barrel of oil in October. (At the time, Brent crude was trading at $80). A number of factors contributed, including rising demand as pandemic restrictions eased, supply disruptions in the LNG market and weather-induced shortfalls in renewable energy. In Europe, this was aggravated by plunging export volumes from Gazprom, Russia’s state-backed monopoly pipeline supplier, amid a bitter political fight over the launch of the Nordstream 2 pipeline. And with delays to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, analysts say the European gas market - where storage is only 66% full - a cold snap or supply disruption away from another price spike Turkey's (latest) currency crisis:  As the FT's Jonathan Wheatley writes, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was once a source of strength for the Turkish lira, and in his first five years in power from 2003, the currency rallied from TL1.6 per US dollar to near parity at TL1.2. But those days are long gone, as Erdogan's bizarre fascination with unorthodox economics, namely the theory that lower rates lead to lower inflation also known as "Erdoganomics", has sparked a historic collapse in the: having traded at about TL7 to the dollar in February, it has since fallen beyond TL17, making it the worst performing currency of 2021. The lira’s defining moment in 2021 came on November 18 when the central bank, in spite of soaring inflation, cut its policy rate for the third time since September, at Erdogan’s behest (any central banker in Turkey who disagrees with "Erdoganomics" is promptly fired and replaced with an ideological puppet). The lira recovered some of its losses in late December when Erdogan came up with the "brilliant" idea of erecting the infamous "doom loop" which ties Turkey's balance sheet to its currency. It has worked for now (the lira surged from TL18 against the dollar to TL12, but this particular band aid solution will only last so long). The lira’s problems are not only Erdogan’s doing. A strengthening dollar, rising oil prices, the relentless covid pandemic and weak growth in developing economies have been bad for other emerging market currencies, too, but as long as Erdogan is in charge, shorting the lira remains the best trade entering 2022. While these, and many more, stories provided a diversion from the boring existence of centrally-planned markets, we are confident that the trends observed in recent years will continue: coming years will be marked by even bigger government (because only more government can "fix" problems created by government), higher stock prices and dollar debasement (because only more Fed intervention can "fix" the problems created by the Fed), and a policy flip from monetary and QE to fiscal & MMT, all of which will keep inflation at scorching levels, much to the persistent confusion of economists everywhere. Of course, we said much of this last year as well, but while we got most trends right, we were wrong about one thing: we were confident that China's aggressive roll out of the digital yuan would be a bang - or as we put it "it is very likely that while 2020 was an insane year, it may prove to be just an appetizer to the shockwaves that will be unleashed in 2021 when we see the first stage of the most historic overhaul of the fiat payment system in history" - however it turned out to be a whimper. A big reason for that was that the initial reception of the "revolutionary" currency was nothing short of disastrous, with Chinese admitting they were "not at all excited" about the prospect of yet one more surveillance mechanism for Beijing, because that's really what digital currencies are: a way for central banks everywhere to micromanage and scrutinize every single transaction, allowing the powers that be to demonetize any one person - or whole groups - with the flick of a switch. Then again, while digital money may not have made its triumphant arrival in 2021, we are confident that the launch date has merely been pushed back to 2022 when the rollout of the next monetary revolution is expected to begin in earnest. Here we should again note one thing: in a world undergoing historic transformations, any free press must be throttled and controlled, and over the past year we have seen unprecedented efforts by legacy media and its corporate owners, as well as the new "social media" overlords do everything in their power to stifle independent thought. For us it had been especially "personal" on more than one occasions. Last January, Twitter suspended our account because we dared to challenge the conventional narrative about the source of the Wuhan virus. It was only six months later that Twitter apologized, and set us free, admitting it had made a mistake. Yet barely had twitter readmitted us, when something even more unprecedented happened: for the first time ever (to our knowledge) Google - the world's largest online ad provider and monopoly - demonetized our website not because of any complaints about our writing but because of the contents of our comment section. It then held us hostage until we agreed to implement some prerequisite screening and moderation of the comments section. Google's action was followed by the likes of PayPal, Amazon, and many other financial and ad platforms, who rushed to demonetize and suspend us simply because they disagreed with what we had to say. This was a stark lesson in how quickly an ad-funded business can disintegrate in this world which resembles the dystopia of 1984 more and more each day, and we have since taken measures. One year ago, for the first time in our 13 year history, we launched a paid version of our website, which is entirely ad and moderation free, and offers readers a variety of premium content. It wasn't our intention to make this transformation but unfortunately we know which way the wind is blowing and it is only a matter of time before the gatekeepers of online ad spending block us again. As such, if we are to have any hope in continuing it will come directly from you, our readers. We will keep the free website running for as long as possible, but we are certain that it is only a matter of time before the hammer falls as the censorship bandwagon rolls out much more aggressively in the coming year. That said, whether the story of 2022, and the next decade for that matter, is one of helicopter or digital money, of (hyper)inflation or deflation: what is key, and what we learned in the past decade, is that the status quo will throw anything at the problem to kick the can, it will certainly not let any crisis go to waste... even the deadliest pandemic in over a century. And while many already knew that, the events of 2021 made it clear to a fault that not even a modest market correction can be tolerated going forward. After all, if central banks aim to punish all selling, then the logical outcome is to buy everything, and investors, traders and speculators did just that armed with the clearest backstop guarantee from the Fed, which in the deapths of the covid crash crossed the Rubicon when it formally nationalized the bond market as it started buying both investment grade bonds and junk bond ETFs in the open market. As such it is no longer even a debatable issue if the Fed will buy stocks after the next crash - the only question is when. Meanwhile, for all those lamenting the relentless coverage of politics in a financial blog, why finance appears to have taken a secondary role, and why the political "narrative" has taken a dominant role for financial analysts, the past year showed vividly why that is the case: in a world where markets gyrated, and "rotated" from value stocks to growth and vice versa, purely on speculation of how big the next stimulus out of Washington will be, the narrative over Biden's trillions proved to be one of the biggest market moving events for much of the year. And with the Biden stimulus plan off the table for now, the Fed will find it very difficult to tighten financial conditions, especially if it does so just as the economy is slowing. Here we like to remind readers of one of our favorite charts: every financial crisis is the result of Fed tightening. As for predictions about the future, as the past two years so vividly showed, when it comes to actual surprises and all true "black swans", it won't be what anyone had expected. And so while many themes, both in the political and financial realm, did get some accelerated closure courtesy of China's covid pandemic, dramatic changes in 2021 persisted, and will continue to manifest themselves in often violent and unexpected ways - from the ongoing record polarization in the US political arena, to "populist" upheavals around the developed world, to the gradual transition to a global Universal Basic (i.e., socialized) Income regime, to China's ongoing fight with preserving stability in its gargantuan financial system which is now two and a half times the size of the US. As always, we thank all of our readers for making this website - which has never seen one dollar of outside funding (and despite amusing recurring allegations, has certainly never seen a ruble from the KGB either, although now that the entire Russian hysteria episode is over, those allegations have finally quieted down), and has never spent one dollar on marketing - a small (or not so small) part of your daily routine. Which also brings us to another critical topic: that of fake news, and something we - and others who do not comply with the established narrative - have been accused of. While we find the narrative of fake news laughable, after all every single article in this website is backed by facts and links to outside sources, it is clearly a dangerous development, and a very slippery slope that the entire developed world is pushing for what is, when stripped of fancy jargon, internet censorship under the guise of protecting the average person from "dangerous, fake information." It's also why we are preparing for the next onslaught against independent thought and why we had no choice but to roll out a premium version of this website. In addition to the other themes noted above, we expect the crackdown on free speech to accelerate in the coming year when key midterm elections will be held, especially as the following list of Top 20 articles for 2021 reveals, many of the most popular articles in the past year were precisely those which the conventional media would not touch out of fear of repercussions, which in turn allowed the alternative media to continue to flourish in an orchestrated information vacuum and take significant market share from the established outlets by covering topics which the public relations arm of established media outlets refused to do, in the process earning itself the derogatory "fake news" condemnation. We are grateful that our readers - who hit a new record high in 2021 - have realized it is incumbent upon them to decide what is, and isn't "fake news." * * * And so, before we get into the details of what has now become an annual tradition for the last day of the year, those who wish to jog down memory lane, can refresh our most popular articles for every year during our no longer that brief, almost 11-year existence, starting with 2009 and continuing with 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. So without further ado, here are the articles that you, our readers, found to be the most engaging, interesting and popular based on the number of hits, during the past year. In 20th spot with 600,000 reads, was an article that touched on one of the most defining features of the market: the reflation theme the sparked a massive rally at the start of the year courtesy of the surprise outcome in the Georgia Senate race, where Democrats ended up wining both seats up for grabs, effectively giving the Dems a majority in both the House and the Senate, where despite the even, 50-seat split, Kamala Harris would cast the winning tie-breaker vote to pursue a historic fiscal stimulus. And sure enough, as we described in "Bitcoin Surges To Record High, Stocks & Bonds Battered As Dems Look Set To Take Both Georgia Senate Seats", with trillions in "stimmies" flooding both the economy and the market, not only did retail traders enjoy unprecedented returns when trading meme "stonks" and forcing short squeezes that crippled numerous hedge funds, but expectations of sharply higher inflation also helped push bitcoin and the entire crypto sector to new all time highs, which in turn legitimized the product across institutional investors and helped it reach a market cap north of $3 trillion.  In 19th spot, over 613,000 readers were thrilled to read at the start of September that "Biden Unveils Most Severe COVID Actions Yet: Mandates Vax For All Federal Workers, Contractors, & Large Private Companies." Of course, just a few weeks later much of Biden's mandate would be struck down in courts, where it is now headed to a decision by SCOTUS, while the constantly shifting "scientific" goal posts mean that just a few months later the latest set of CDC regulations have seen regulators and officials reverse the constant drone of fearmongering and are now even seeking to cut back on the duration of quarantine and other lockdown measures amid a public mood that is growing increasingly hostile to the government response. One of the defining political events of 2021 was the so-called "Jan 6 Insurrection", which the for America's conservatives was blown wildly out of proportion yet which the leftist media and Democrats in Congress have been periodically trying to push to the front pages in hopes of distracting from the growing list of failures of the Obama admin. Yet as we asked back in January, "Why Was Founder Of Far-Left BLM Group Filming Inside Capitol As Police Shot Protester?" No less than 614,000 readers found this question worthy of a response. Since then many more questions have emerged surrounding this event, many of which focus on what role the FBI had in organizing and encouraging this event, including the use of various informants and instigators. For now, a response will have to wait at least until the mid-term elections of 2022 when Republicans are expected to sweep one if not both chambers. Linked to the above, the 17th most read article of 2021 with 617,000 views, was an article we published on the very same day, which detailed that "Armed Protesters Begin To Arrive At State Capitols Around The Nation." At the end of the day, it was much ado about nothing and all protests concluded peacefully and without incident: perhaps the FBI was simply spread too thin? 2021 was a year defined by various waves of the covid pandemic which hammered poor Americans forced to hunker down at home and missing on pay, and crippled countless small mom and pop businesses. And yet, it was also a bonanza for a handful of pharma companies such as Pfizer and Moderna which made billions from the sale of "vaccines" which we now know do little if anything to halt the spread of the virus, and are instead now being pitched as palliatives, preventing a far worse clinical outcome. The same pharma companies also benefited from an unconditional indemnity, which surely would come in useful when the full side-effects of their mRNA-based therapies became apparent. One such condition to emerge was myocarditis among a subset of the vaxxed. And while the vaccines continue to be broadly rolled out across most developed nations, one place that said enough was Sweden. As over 620,000 readers found out in "Sweden Suspends Moderna Shot Indefinitely After Vaxxed Patients Develop Crippling Heart Condition", not every country was willing to use its citizens as experimental guniea pigs. This was enough to make the article the 16th most read on these pages, but perhaps in light of the (lack of) debate over the pros and cons of the covid vaccines, this should have been the most read article this year? Moving on to the 15th most popular article, 628,000 readers were shocked to learn that "Chase Bank Cancels General Mike Flynn's Credit Cards." The action, which was taken by the largest US bank due to "reputational risk" echoed a broad push by tech giants to deplatform and silence dissenting voices by literally freezing them out of the financial system. In the end, following widespread blowback from millions of Americans, JPMorgan reversed, and reactivated Flynn's cards saying the action was made in error, but unfortunately this is just one example of how those in power can lock out any dissenters with the flick of a switch. And while democrats cheer such deplatforming today, the political winds are fickle, and we doubt they will be as excited once they find themselves on the receiving end of such actions. And speaking of censorship and media blackouts, few terms sparked greater response from those in power than the term Ivermectin. Viewed by millions as a cheap, effective alternative to offerings from the pharmaceutical complex, social networks did everything in their power to silence any mention of a drug which the Journal of Antibiotics said in 2017 was an "enigmatic multifaceted ‘wonder’ drug which continues to surprise and exceed expectations." Nowhere was this more obvious than in the discussion of how widespread use of Ivermectin beat Covid in India, the topic of the 14th most popular article of 2021 "India's Ivermectin Blackout" which was read by over 653,000 readers. Unfortunately, while vaccines continue to fail upward and now some countries are now pushing with a 4th, 5th and even 6th vaccine, Ivermectin remains a dirty word. There was more covid coverage in the 13th most popular article of 2021, "Surprise Surprise - Fauci Lied Again": Rand Paul Reacts To Wuhan Bombshell" which was viewed no less than 725,000 times. Paul's reaction came following a report which revealed that Anthony Fauci's NIAID and its parent, the NIH, funded Gain-of-Function research in Wuhan, China, strongly hinting that the emergence of covid was the result of illicit US funding. Not that long ago, Fauci had called Paul a 'liar' for accusing him of funding the risky research, in which viruses are genetically modified or otherwise altered to make them more transmissible to humans. And while we could say that Paul got the last laugh, Fauci still remains Biden's top covid advisor, which may explain why one year after Biden vowed he would shut down the pandemic, the number of new cases just hit a new all time high. One hope we have for 2022 is that people will finally open their eyes... 2021 was not just about covid - soaring prices and relentless inflation were one of the most poignant topics. It got so bad that Biden's approval rating - and that of Democrats in general - tumbled toward the end of the year, putting their mid-term ambitions in jeopardy, as the public mood soured dramatically in response to the explosion in prices. And while one can debate whether it was due to supply-issues, such as the collapse in trans-pacific supply chains and the chronic lack of labor to grow the US infrastructure, or due to roaring demand sparked by trillions in fiscal stimulus, but when the "Big Short" Michael Burry warned that hyperinflation is coming, the people listened, and with over 731,000 reads, the 12th most popular article of 2021 was "Michael Burry Warns Weimar Hyperinflation Is Coming."  Of course, Burry did not say anything we haven't warned about for the past 12 years, but at least he got the people's attention, and even mainstream names such as Twitter founder Jack Dorsey agreed with him, predicting that bitcoin will be what is left after the dollar has collapsed. While hyperinflation may will be the endgame, the question remains: when. For the 11th most read article of 2021, we go back to a topic touched upon moments ago when we addressed the full-blown media campaign seeking to discredit Ivermectin, in this case via the D-grade liberal tabloid Rolling Stone (whose modern incarnation is sadly a pale shadow of the legend that house Hunter S. Thompson's unforgettable dispatches) which published the very definition of fake news when it called Ivermectin a "horse dewormer" and claimed that, according to a hospital employee, people were overdosing on it. Just a few hours later, the article was retracted as we explained in "Rolling Stone Issues 'Update' After Horse Dewormer Hit-Piece Debunked" and over 812,000 readers found out that pretty much everything had been a fabrication. But of course, by then it was too late, and the reputation of Ivermectin as a potential covid cure had been further tarnished, much to the relief of the pharma giants who had a carte blanche to sell their experimental wares. The 10th most popular article of 2021 brings us to another issue that had split America down the middle, namely the story surrounding Kyle Rittenhouse and the full-blown media campaign that declared the teenager guilty, even when eventually proven innocent. Just days before the dramatic acquittal, we learned that "FBI Sat On Bombshell Footage From Kyle Rittenhouse Shooting", which was read by over 822,000 readers. It was unfortunate to learn that once again the scandal-plagued FBI stood at the center of yet another attempt at mass misinformation, and we can only hope that one day this "deep state" agency will be overhauled from its core, or better yet, shut down completely. As for Kyle, he will have the last laugh: according to unconfirmed rumors, his numerous legal settlements with various media outlets will be in the tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars.  And from the great US social schism, we again go back to Covid for the 9th most popular article of 2021, which described the terrifying details of one of the most draconian responses to covid in the entire world: that of Australia. Over 900,000 readers were stunned to read that the "Australian Army Begins Transferring COVID-Positive Cases, Contacts To Quarantine Camps." Alas, the latest surge in Australian cases to nosebleed, record highs merely confirms that this unprecedented government lockdown - including masks and vaccines - is nothing more than an exercise in how far government can treat its population as a herd of sheep without provoking a violent response.  The 8th most popular article of 2021 looks at the market insanity of early 2021 when, at the end of January, we saw some of the most-shorted, "meme" stocks explode higher as the Reddit daytrading horde fixed their sights on a handful of hedge funds and spent billions in stimmies in an attempt to force unprecedented ramps. That was the case with "GME Soars 75% After-Hours, Erases Losses After Liquidity-Constrained Robinhood Lifts Trading Ban", which profiled the daytrading craze that gave an entire generation the feeling that it too could win in these manipulated capital markets. Then again, judging by the waning retail interest, it is possible that the excitement of the daytrading army is fading as rapidly as it first emerged, and that absent more "stimmies" markets will remain the playground of the rich and central banks. Kyle Rittenhouse may soon be a very rich man after the ordeal he went through, but the media's mission of further polarizing US society succeeded, and millions of Americans will never accept that the teenager was innocent. It's also why with just over 1 million reads, the 7th most read article on Zero Hedge this year was that "Portland Rittenhouse Protest Escalates Into Riot." Luckily, this is not a mid-term election year and there were no moneyed interests seeking to prolong this particular riot, unlike what happened in the summer of 2020... and what we are very much afraid will again happen next year when very critical elections are on deck.  With just over 1.03 million views, the 6th most popular post focused on a viral Twitter thread on Friday from Dr Robert Laone, which laid out a disturbing trend; the most-vaccinated countries in the world are experiencing  a surge in COVID-19 cases, while the least-vaccinated countries were not. As we originally discussed in ""This Is Worrying Me Quite A Bit": mRNA Vaccine Inventor Shares Viral Thread Showing COVID Surge In Most-Vaxxed Countries", this trend has only accelerated in recent weeks with the emergence of the Omicron strain. Unfortunately, instead of engaging in a constructive discussion to see why the science keeps failing again and again, Twitter's response was chilling: with just days left in 2021, it suspended the account of Dr. Malone, one of the inventors of mRNA technology. Which brings to mind something Aaron Rogers said: "If science can't be questioned it's not science anymore it's propaganda & that's the truth." In a year that was marked a flurry of domestic fiascoes by the Biden administration, it is easy to forget that the aged president was also responsible for the biggest US foreign policy disaster since Vietnam, when the botched evacuation of Afghanistan made the US laughing stock of the world after 12 US servicemembers were killed. So it's probably not surprising that over 1.1 million readers were stunned to watch what happened next, which we profiled in the 5th most popular post of 2021, where in response to the Afghan trajedy, "Biden Delivers Surreal Press Conference, Vows To Hunt Down Isis, Blames Trump." One person watching the Biden presser was Xi Jinping, who may have once harbored doubts about reclaiming Taiwan but certainly does not any more. The 4th most popular article of 2021 again has to do with with covid, and specifically the increasingly bizarre clinical response to the disease. As we detailed in "Something Really Strange Is Happening At Hospitals All Over America" while emergency rooms were overflowing, it certainly wasn't from covid cases. Even more curiously, one of the primary ailments leading to an onslaught on ERs across the nation was heart-related issues, whether arrhytmia, cardiac incidents or general heart conditions. We hope that one day there will be a candid discussion on this topic, but until then it remains one of the topics seen as taboo by the mainstream media and the deplatforming overlords, so we'll just leave it at that. We previously discussed the anti-Ivermectin narrative that dominated the mainstream press throughout 2021 and the 3rd most popular article of the year may hold clues as to why: in late September, pharma giant Pfizer and one of the two companies to peddle an mRNA based vaccine, announced that it's launching an accelerated Phase 2/3 trial for a COVID prophylactic pill designed to ward off COVID in those may have come in contact with the disease. And, as we described in "Pfizer Launches Final Study For COVID Drug That's Suspiciously Similar To 'Horse Paste'," 1.75 million readers learned that Pfizer's drug shared at least one mechanism of action as Ivermectin - an anti-parasitic used in humans for decades, which functions as a protease inhibitor against Covid-19, which researchers speculate "could be the biophysical basis behind its antiviral efficiency." Surely, this too was just another huge coincidence. In the second most popular article of 2021, almost 2 million readers discovered (to their "shock") that Fauci and the rest of Biden's COVID advisors were proven wrong about "the science" of COVID vaccines yet again. After telling Americans that vaccines offer better protection than natural infection, a new study out of Israel suggested the opposite is true: natural infection offers a much better shield against the delta variant than vaccines, something we profiled in "This Ends The Debate' - Israeli Study Shows Natural Immunity 13x More Effective Than Vaccines At Stopping Delta." We were right about one thing: anyone who dared to suggest that natural immunity was indeed more effective than vaccines was promptly canceled and censored, and all debate almost instantly ended. Since then we have had tens of millions of "breakout" cases where vaccinated people catch covid again, while any discussion why those with natural immunity do much better remains under lock and key. It may come as a surprise to many that the most read article of 2021 was not about covid, or Biden, or inflation, or China, or even the extremely polarized US congress (and/or society), but was about one of the most long-suffering topics on these pages: precious metals and their prices. Yes, back in February the retail mania briefly targeted silver and as millions of reddit daytraders piled in in hopes of squeezing the precious metal higher, the price of silver surged higher only to tumble just as quickly as it has risen as the seller(s) once again proved more powerful than the buyers. We described this in "Silver Futures Soar 8%, Rise Above $29 As Reddit Hordes Pile In", an article which some 2.4 million gold and silver bugs read with hope, only to see their favorite precious metals slump for much of the rest of the year. And yes, the fact that both gold and silver ended the year sharply lower than where they started even though inflation hit the highest level in 40 years, remains one of the great mysteries of 2021. With all that behind us, and as we wave goodbye to another bizarre, exciting, surreal year, what lies in store for 2022, and the next decade? We don't know: as frequent and not so frequent readers are aware, we do not pretend to be able to predict the future and we don't try despite endless allegations that we constantly predict the collapse of civilization: we leave the predicting to the "smartest people in the room" who year after year have been consistently wrong about everything, and never more so than in 2021 (even the Fed admitted it is clueless when Powell said it was time to retire the term "transitory"), which destroyed the reputation of central banks, of economists, of conventional media and the professional "polling" and "strategist" class forever, not to mention all those "scientists" who made a mockery of the "expertise class" with their bungled response to the covid pandemic. We merely observe, find what is unexpected, entertaining, amusing, surprising or grotesque in an increasingly bizarre, sad, and increasingly crazy world, and then just write about it. We do know, however, that after a record $30 trillion in stimulus was conjured out of thin air by the world's central banks and politicians in the past two years, the attempt to reverse this monetary and fiscal firehose in a world addicted to trillions in newly created liquidity now that central banks are freaking out after finally getting ot the inflation they were hoping to create for so long, will end in tears. We are confident, however, that in the end it will be the very final backstoppers of the status quo regime, the central banking emperors of the New Normal, who will eventually be revealed as fully naked. When that happens and what happens after is anyone's guess. But, as we have promised - and delivered - every year for the past 13, we will be there to document every aspect of it. Finally, and as always, we wish all our readers the best of luck in 2022, with much success in trading and every other avenue of life. We bid farewell to 2021 with our traditional and unwavering year-end promise: Zero Hedge will be there each and every day - usually with a cynical smile - helping readers expose, unravel and comprehend the fallacy, fiction, fraud and farce that defines every aspect of our increasingly broken system. Tyler Durden Sun, 01/02/2022 - 03:44.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytJan 2nd, 2022

Gold Higher Despite Rising Fed Hike Expectations – OANDA

OANDA – Santa’s Back, Mostly Positive US Data, Erdogan’s Lira Playbook, Crude Steadies, Gold Higher Despite Rising Fed Hike Expectations, Bitcoin Disappoints Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Omicron is looking more like a short-term disruption to the economic outlook and not a destructive headwind that knocks the economy off its course.  A […] OANDA – Santa’s Back, Mostly Positive US Data, Erdogan’s Lira Playbook, Crude Steadies, Gold Higher Despite Rising Fed Hike Expectations, Bitcoin Disappoints if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get Our Icahn eBook! Get our entire 10-part series on Carl Icahn and other famous investors in PDF for free! Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet or print it! Sign up below. NO SPAM EVER (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Omicron is looking more like a short-term disruption to the economic outlook and not a destructive headwind that knocks the economy off its course.  A wrath of US economic data, which was mostly pre-Omicron painted a picture that showed the economic was moderating, but growth and inflation remained strong. Jobless claims continue to head into the right direction, higher prices dragged down both incomes and spending, and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure came in much hotter-than-expected. If the US was not battling the Omicron variant, US stocks would be dancing higher as the Santa Clause rally would have kept the climb going into uncharted territory.  It is too early to say for sure if we will get a Santa Claus rally, but given all the short-term risks of Fed tightening, Chinese weakness, fiscal support uncertainty and COVID, Wall Street is not complaining as the S&P 500 is less than a percentage point from record highs. Just before the open, the FDA authorized Merck’s COVID antiviral treatment molnupiravir for certain adults. The US economic recovery in 2022 still looks very strong despite fiscal and tightening uncertainty as it now carries an arsenal of vaccines and treatments to win the fight against COVID.  Novavax shares went on a ride after reporting its COVID vaccine demonstrated a strong immune response against omicron, but was lower when compared to other strains. When you look at all the COVID vaccine/treatment updates over the past 24 hours the news was mostly positive: the Novavax COVID vaccine is effective and will be likely be used, Merck COVID pill will start helping Americans in the New Year, and AstraZeneca’s COVID booster increases antibody levels against Omicron. The one major setback came from a Hong Kong study that showed that three doses of Sinovac gave inadequate antibodies when fighting omicron. US Data Initial jobless claims edged lower to 205,000, still near the lowest level in more than half a century.  The labor market remains tight despite some concerns the omicron variant could lead to a tentative stall with new hiring.  Continuing claims dame in higher than forecasts at 1.859 million. The industrial sector continues to impress after durable goods delivered a better-than-expected rebound.  Commercial aircraft orders drove the 2.5% durable goods jump from a year ago, which was the best increase in six months. The industrial sector outlook going into the New Year remains very upbeat. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE Core Deflator increased 0.5% from a month earlier and surged 4.7% from November 2020.  Fed rate hike expectations continue to heat up as the chances of March 16th hike grow. The consensus on Wall Street is that inflation is still not at its peak, so by the time we get to the end of January, a March rate hike may fully be priced in. The November new home sales report was rather confusing.  The hot housing market showed new home sales were drastically reduced in October and November’s reading came in softer-than-expected.  Still the pressure for higher house prices remains and demand may cool during the holiday season. The final December reading for consumer sentiment showed Americans became more optimistic and inflation expectations edged lower. FX President Erdogan’s FX intervention is looking like a genius move given he took advantage of thin trading conditions that gave much more bang for his shorted buck. Turkey’s central bank reported a weekly $5.8 billion decrease in FX reserves in the week to December 17th. In early December Erdogan noted that the CBRT reserves(during that week Turkey used $2 billion in reserves) show no need to worry. The lira has now rebounded almost 40% since the currency crash at the start of the week. The key test for the lira will be once normal trading conditions return, volatility should remain elevated. Energy Gasoline prices rallied after the fourth largest refinery in the US had a major industrial accident.  The fire at the ExxonMobil plant in Baytown, Texas was extinguished safely and gasoline prices gave back almost half their daily gains. Crude prices stabilized after a wrath of mostly positive COVID vaccine/treatment headlines in the fight against Omicron.  It seems all the major catalysts that await oil in the New Year lean towards higher prices.  This week, supply disruptions from Libya and Nigeria and a bullish EIA report have WTI crude trading comfortably above the $70 level.  The US is a net exporter again, diesel demand roared back, and stockpiles are dropping. WTI crude will likely consolidate around the low- to -mid-$70s until OPEC+ gives a hint on what they will do at the January 4th meeting on output or if a major development happens with Europe’s energy crisis. Gold Gold prices are holding up nicely despite another round of US data that mostly supported the case for the Fed to raise rates in March.  Fed rate hike expectations have been constantly swinging over every data point and assessment over how omicron will delay parts of the economic recovery and potentially fuel more inflation. Gold should have a strong 2022 as the risks to the outlook remain elevated and that will likely lead to more easing from Beijing, dovish Fed rate hikes in the summer, and a weakening dollar as investors bet on Europe’s growth potential. Bitcoin For a market that trades 24/7, Bitcoin appears like it doesn’t want to move despite a modest risk appetite mood on Wall Street.  Bitcoin and Ethereum have benefited the most this year on risk-on rally days, so today’s weakness suggests market participation is very low and entry orders are rather distant. Article By Edward Moya, OANDA Updated on Dec 23, 2021, 12:39 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkDec 23rd, 2021

5 Russell 2000 Stocks That Crushed the Index in 2021

Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Sanderson Farms (SAFM), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Trex (TREX) and Enova (ENVA) are the top Russell 2000 stocks that outperformed the index in 2021. Following the economic lows in 2020, investors have witnessed a gradual improvement in the financial markets in 2021 with accelerated COVID-19 vaccination drives, increased merger & acquisition activities across various industry verticals and favorable earnings growth.The pandemic has further witnessed a resurgence of small-cap stocks as startups and small corporations have proved their mettle by driving innovation and generating more revenues with new opportunities as the economy recovers.Small-Cap Stocks Lead the WayLarge-cap stocks tend to be less volatile, even during rough market conditions. However, given the current uncertainties stemming from the pandemic, small-cap stocks appear to be the preferred choice as they offer huge growth potential and higher returns in the long run.Moreover, small companies are known to have spurred employment rates in the private sector amid the pandemic-induced market turbulence. With large entities having major international exposure, small and mid-cap companies seem to be relatively better placed than their larger peers to tap local talents and capitalize on regional supply chain mechanism.About Russell 2000 IndexThe Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. It accounts for 10% of the market capitalization of the Russell 3000. A broader section of the core U.S. companies forms an integral part of this index. It is one of the most widely used benchmarks for small-cap equities, making it a barometer for the economy.Driven by its resilience, the Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks surged 140% as of Nov 4, 2021, since it hit rock-bottom levels in March 2020. In 2020, the Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks gained 70.9% compared with 44.5% for the large-cap S&P 500 Index.The Russell 2000 Index reflects the bullish sentiments of the market and has moved up 14.2% on a year-to-date basis. It closed at 2,221.90 on Dec 22. Consequently, it would be prudent to park your hard-earned money on these small-cap stocks for lucrative returns.Top 5 PerformersWe have zeroed in on five such stocks that performed better than the index and are among the top gainers in 2021. These stocks are well poised to gain further in the near term on the back of their higher return potential.Builders FirstSource, Inc. BLDR: Headquartered in Dallas, TX, Builders FirstSource is the largest supplier of building materials, manufactured components and construction services. The company operates in more than 550 locations in 39 states all over the United States. Following the merger with BMC Stock Holdings, Inc. on Jan 1, 2021, Builders FirstSource reorganized its organizational structure.Acquisitions form an important part of Builders FirstSource growth strategy to supplement its organic growth. Before the BMC merger, the company integrated 43 acquisitions since 1998. With accretive investments in digital solutions, BLDR is observing higher demand driven by solid momentum of the housing industry. Also, it is expected to provide greater resources to invest in growth, innovation and non-stop value creation for all its shareholders.Builders FirstSource sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and has a VGM Score of A. BLDR delivered a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 71.5%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next-year earnings has been revised 50.2% upward over the past 60 days. Year to date, the stock has catapulted 98.7% compared with 43.4% growth of the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchYou can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Sanderson Farms, Inc. SAFM: Headquartered in Laurel, MS, Sanderson Farms is a poultry processing company that produces, processes, markets and distributes fresh and frozen chicken products. The company operates 11 hatcheries, nine feed mills and 12 processing plants, and one prepared chicken plant.With sales of more than $3.5 billion, it is currently the third-largest poultry producer in the United States, processing more than 4.8 billion pounds of meat in fiscal 2020. Sanderson Farms has been strengthening its product portfolio by adding to its vast product pipeline. It is working toward boosting its assortments to meet consumers’ altering tastes and dining preferences. Additionally, it is investing toward augmenting its overall capacity.Sanderson Farms also flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 and has a VGM Score of A. SAFM delivered a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 496.3%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next-year earnings has been revised 6.8% upward over the past 60 days. Year to date, the stock has rallied 41.8% compared with 10.1% growth of the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchLattice Semiconductor Corporation LSCC: Headquartered in Hillsboro, OR, Lattice is a manufacturer of high-performance programmable logic devices. The company sells its products globally in three end market groups — Communications and Computing, Industrial and Automotive, and Consumer.Lattice shares long-standing strategic relationships with major semiconductor foundries for procuring finished silicon wafers. This enables LSCC to focus its internal resources on product and market development, in turn, eliminating the fixed cost of operating semiconductor manufacturing facilities. The company solves customer problems across the network, from the Edge to the Cloud, across computing, communications, automotive, industrial and consumer markets.Lattice carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). LSCC delivered a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 14.5%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next-year earnings has been revised 7.1% upward over the past 60 days. Year to date, the stock has returned 63.1% compared with 41.4% growth of the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchTrex Company, Inc. TREX: Based in Winchester, VA, Trex is a leading manufacturer of wood-alternative composite decking, railing and other outdoor items. Stocked in more than 6,700 retail locations worldwide, Trex outdoor living products deliver a plethora of style options with fewer maintenance requirements than wood. It currently operates in two reportable segments — Trex Residential Products (Trex Residential) and Trex Commercial Products (Trex Commercial).The expanded addressable market reflects the strength of its brand and product portfolio. Solid sales growth and disciplined SG&A spending act as major tailwinds. With strong demand trends, Trex anticipates double-digit revenue gains in 2022 with higher opportunities related to energy efficiency, modernization and automation. It also prioritizes cost reduction projects and new product development while driving innovation in the global market.  Trex has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The company delivered a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 5.5%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next-year earnings has been revised 6.6% upward over the past 60 days. Year to date, the stock has gained 57% compared with 31.5% growth of the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchEnova International, Inc. ENVA: Based in Chicago, IL, Enova is a leading financial technology company focused on providing online financial services. As of Dec 31, 2020, the company has completed more than 53.2 million customer transactions and collected nearly 49 terabytes of consumer behavior data, enabling it to better analyze its specific customer base. Some of its financing products and services are installment loans, income share agreements, CSO programs and receivables purchase agreements.Enova currently provides its services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and Brazil. It caters to small businesses and capitalizes on its proprietary technology, analytics and customer service capabilities to underwrite and fund loans. Enova’s proprietary underwriting systems leverage advanced risk analytics, including machine learning and artificial intelligence. ENVA has provided more than 7 million customers with more than $40 billion in loans to enhance their financial health.Enova has a Zacks Rank #3. The company delivered a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 68.6%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next-year earnings has been revised 6.2% upward over the past 60 days. Year to date, the stock has soared 61.5% compared with 34.9% growth of the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2022 In addition to the investment ideas discussed above, would you like to know about our 10 top picks for the entirety of 2022? From inception in 2012 through November, the Zacks Top 10 Stocks gained an impressive +962.5% versus the S&P 500’s +329.4%. Now our Director of Research is combing through 4,000 companies covered by the Zacks Rank to handpick the best 10 tickers to buy and hold. Don’t miss your chance to get in on these stocks when they’re released on January 3.Be First to New Top 10 Stocks >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR): Free Stock Analysis Report Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC): Free Stock Analysis Report Sanderson Farms, Inc. (SAFM): Free Stock Analysis Report Trex Company, Inc. (TREX): Free Stock Analysis Report Enova International, Inc. (ENVA): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 23rd, 2021

As China"s Property Sector Continues Disintegrating, Much More Easing Will Be Needed

As China's Property Sector Continues Disintegrating, Much More Easing Will Be Needed Evergrande's default may not have been a one-time "Lehman" event, but the painful, creeping consequences of China's property market getting hit - the single biggest asset class in the world... ... will resonate for years in a slow, painful repricing - absent a major kick from the PBOC - and sure enough, Chinese property stocks tumbled close to a new five-year low - levels last seen in 2014 - after a series of asset sales underscored concern that equity investors will bear the brunt of losses as developers offload projects to repay debt (assuming defaults don't wipe out the equity tranche completely). As Bloomberg reports overnight, Shimao Group Holdings agreed to sell stakes in a Hong Kong development at a loss while distressed property giant, Sunac China Holdings, unloaded assets in Shanghai as developers rush to raise cash. China regulators meanwhile signaled they will support “quality” real estate firms looking to buy assets from struggling rivals, according to a report. An index of Chinese developers fell for the sixth day in seven, led by Sunac, which posted a record one-day decline of 18%. Trading in Chinese dollar bonds remained light during the seasonal end-of-year lull. The plunge in developer shares means the richest bosses behind China’s real estate firms have lost more than $46 billion combined this year, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Evergrande founder Hui Ka Yan’s wealth alone has plunged by $17.2 billion. It's not looking good for a quick and painless rebound in the billionaire's net worth - here are some of the more notable recent developments, all of which paint a grim picture for China's developers: Evergrande Declared in Default by S&P for Failed Payments Evergrande was labeled a defaulter by S&P Global Ratings, the second credit-risk assessor to do so after Fitch. S&P cut Evergrande to “selective default” Friday over its failure to make coupon payments by the end of a grace period earlier this month, a move that may trigger cross defaults on the developer’s $19.2 billion of dollar debt. S&P also withdrew its ratings on the group at Evergrande’s request. Fitch Ratings was the first to declare the property developer in default on Dec. 9. Long considered by many investors as too big to fail, Evergrande has become the largest casualty of President Xi Jinping’s campaign to tame the country’s overindebted conglomerates and overheated property market. Concern has since spread to higher-rated firms like Shimao Group as liquidity stress intensifies. Evergrande Land Seized by Chengdu City on Lack of Development: The local government in western China’s Chengdu city took two parcels back without repaying the developers, saying that Evergrande failed to start construction on time, according to Dec. 17 statements from a Chengdu land regulator (one could call this a partial nationalization of the now defaulted developer): one site, sized 83,997 square meters, was sold to a firm fully owned by by Evergrande’s onshore subsidiary Hengda Real Estate in 2010, according to a statement and corporate registry search platform Qichacha. Another site, sized 258,667 square meters, was sold to a developer in 2002 and transferred to another Hengda unit in 2011, according to a separate statement and Qichacha. China Offshore Bond Defaults Hit Record in December December is poised to be a record month for Chinese offshore corporate defaults after missed payments by indebted companies including China Evergrande and Kaisa Group Holdings Chinese firms have defaulted on a record $3.8 billion in offshore bonds so far this month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The previous monthly high was in January when Chinese borrowers failed to repay $2.7 billion of such notes. China Regulators Encourage Property Acquisitions China is ramping up support of the embattled real estate sector as growing stress in the industry threatens to deepen an economic slowdown (something we first discussed last month in "Beijing Capitulates: Urges Local Govts To Unleash Debt Flood As Cities Begin Backstopping Property Developers"). Authorities are encouraging banks to fund acquisitions of projects of distressed developers and pushing financially healthy property firms to make such purchases, the central bank-backed Financial News reported Monday. China is also providing credit support to an economy showing strain from the property slump, with domestic banks on Monday lowering borrowing costs for the first time in 20 months. The move follows action by the People’s Bank of China earlier this month to cut the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve, freeing up 1.2 trillion yuan ($188 billion) of cheap long-term funds for lenders. As Bloomberg notes, the support measures come as some developers such as Kaisa and Evergrande struggle to sell assets to raise cash and service mounting debts amid a crackdown on leverage in the industry. Meanwhile, after a relentless deleveraging property developer campaign which started a year ago with the three red lines, regulators have finally eased up on the clampdown in recent weeks, such as by encouraging stronger real estate firms to tap the onshore interbank bond market for financing. Kaisa Appoints Advisers; Shares Resume Trading Kaisa has appointed Houlihan Lokey as its financial adviser and Sidley Austin as legal adviser after missing multiple offshore debt payments. The retention of the bankruptcy-focused financial adviser will evaluate Kaisa’s liquidity and explore all feasible solutions, the company said in a stock exchange filing on Monday. Kaisa said it hasn’t received any notice regarding acceleration of repayment by holders, and has been in talks with holder representatives about a comprehensive debt restructuring plan. That said, the hiring of HLHZ is a clear indication that a default is coming; Kaisa shares tumbled. Evergrande Backer’s Privatization Collapses Chinese Estates Holdings Ltd. minority shareholders failed to give sufficient support to the company’s proposed privatization, derailing a plan by the long-time ally of Evergrande to delist next month. The stock plunged 30%. Among the 74 stockholders participating, 64 voted no and made up 10.8% of the shares among the investors, according to a stock exchange filing Friday. The Hong Kong real estate firm, owned by the family of billionaire Joseph Lau, announced plans in October to buy out investors at HK$4 a share. The stock last traded at HK$3.78 before being halted Friday afternoon ahead of the results. Chinese Estates requested a trading resumption and said its listing will be maintained. Shimao Sells Stake in Hong Kong Development Z Shimao agreed to sell its 22.5% stake in three entities created for the Grand Victoria property development in Hong Kong for HK$2.1 billion ($270 million), according to an exchange filing. The buyers include entities owned by fellow developers SEA Holdings, Wheelock & Co. and Sino Land. Shimao expects to recognize a loss of about HK$770 million from the sale. Separately, Sunac China Holdings Ltd. sold three projects in Shanghai and Hangzhou for 2.68 billion yuan ($420 million), the 21st Century Business Herald reported, citing unidentified people. * * * Will all these adverse developments in mind, it is not only quite easy to understand why China cut its RRR last week, followed by a 5bps cut to its Libor, the Loan Prime Rate, but as Bloomberg notes, much more easing will be needed to revive China's market. As a reminder, over the weekend Morgan Stanley predicted that China's credit impulse is due for a sharp rebound as a result of already implemented policy easing. But the question is whether this isn't too little too late - as Bloomberg's Ye Xie puts it, markets have largely shrugged off the first cut in benchmark borrowing costs in 20 months in China. That in part reflects the fact that policy easing so far has been more measured. Even as the policy mix is becoming more market friendly, the bottom line is that the country needs credit growth to pick up more meaningfully. Here are some more observations from Xie: The combination of elevated inflation and renewed growth concerns from the spread of the omicron variant of Covid has complicated the job of policy makers around the world. While the Fed and other major central banks have shifted focus to taming inflation, markets are more nervous about the economic outlook. For instance, the market implied rate for the Fed’s benchmark in 2023 has declined since the FOMC meeting last week to about 1.25%, compared with the median forecast of 1.625% on the dot- plot. In contrast, Beijing, with less inflation pressure, is moving toward policy easing. Chinese banks cut the one-year LPR rate by 5 bps Monday, surprising most economists who had expected them to stay put. But market reactions were largely muted. Ten-year bond yields were little changed, while the CSI 300 declined 1.5%. What gives? For starters, while few economists had predicted the move, investors have been anticipating some policy easing since the central economic working conference earlier this month, when Beijing signaled that propping up the economy has become its top priority. The RRR cut in early December, plus a similar move in July, saved enough costs for banks to pass them on to borrowers. So the LPR cut did not exactly come out of the blue. The lenders held the five-year rate, which is tied to mortgage rates, steady. It signaled that Beijing may not intend to change overall control over the housing market, despite some recent policy fine-tuning. What’s more, the seven-day repo, a measure of interbank liquidity, has been stable. All of this suggests that the PBOC isn’t in a full-blown easing mode, yet. Historically, the stock, bond and currency markets’ performance has been mixed in the month following an LPR cut. As noted by Larry Hu, an economist at Macquarie Securities, cutting the rate is less important in China’s context, “where the monetary policy is more based on quantity than price.” In other words, the supply of money is more important than the price of money. So as the world waits to see if the Fed will either taper its taper, or hint at far fewer rates hikes (if any) now that Biden's BBB plan isn't coming, and with it $1.75 trillion in fiscal stimulus is gone, China is already stepping on the monetary stimulus engine. It won't be alone, and we are confident that it is only a matter of time before Powell folds again. As for rampant inflation, it will take just one small change in the definition of CPI - one which is already on its way - to fix all that. Tyler Durden Mon, 12/20/2021 - 21:40.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytDec 20th, 2021

Fetner to build new mixed ‘micro’ apartment development on Upper West Side

Fetner Properties announced the closing of 270 West 96 Street, a 23-story mixed use building, which will bring a total of 171 market-rate and affordable apartments to Manhattan’s Upper West Side, 83 of which will be micro units. The residential residences, designed by SLCE Architects, is the first new rental project in... The post Fetner to build new mixed ‘micro’ apartment development on Upper West Side appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. Fetner Properties announced the closing of 270 West 96 Street, a 23-story mixed use building, which will bring a total of 171 market-rate and affordable apartments to Manhattan’s Upper West Side, 83 of which will be micro units. The residential residences, designed by SLCE Architects, is the first new rental project in the neighborhood in many years. “This project is an excellent example of how public private partnerships can create much needed housing in Manhattan,” said Hal Fetner, president and CEO of Fetner Properties. “We are truly proud to have successfully taken 270 West 96 through the ULURP process despite challenges presented by the pandemic. We are eager to be bringing this building to the vibrant Upper West Side community.” The City of New York sold 266 West 96 Street, a former power transformer substation, in exchange for the creation of affordable housing. Fetner Properties combined this site with two privately owned parcels purchased from the Salvation Army   and the NAACP Roy Wilkins Center, Inc. The proceeds from the sale of the Roy Wilkins Center will go to the New York Community Trust’s Roy Wilkins Fund to continue its programming. Wells Fargo is providing the senior construction financing for the new rental building.  The Project budget is $125 million. “The rare opportunity to create new rental homes in one of the most iconic neighborhoods in New York City has been a four-and-a-half-year journey of perseverance, challenging work and vision, all of which supported by a world-class team of professionals, colleagues and or course, our financial partners, added Damon Pazzaglini, Chief Operating Officer of Fetner Properties. “Our plan now becoming a reality, with construction beginning immediately. “ Fetner has been highly active this past year with other new projects in New York City. Construction has begun on the first of a two-phase development in Long Island City, 27-01 Jackson Avenue, and permits have been filed for another tower across the street at 26-32 Jackson Avenue. As with 270 West 96 Street, SLCE Architects is the architect for both Long Island City residential rental buildings, which will bring 600 units to Queens. “We are thrilled to partner with Fetner Properties on the development of this new residential project in Manhattan. This will not only be a welcome addition to the neighborhood, but will also help meet the demand for affordable housing in New York City,” said Jonah Belkin, Managing Director of Peakhill Equity Partners. Peakhill is a partner in the project, as is another institutional investment firm attracted to 270 West 96th Street as part of their Social Impact Investor Program. Located between West End Avenue and Broadway, 270 West 96 Street is one block north of the 96th Street subway station, which is serviced by the 1, 2, and 3 trains. Riverside Park, astride the Hudson River, is a block away and the lively neighborhood is filled with restaurants, schools and public amenities. The post Fetner to build new mixed ‘micro’ apartment development on Upper West Side appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklyDec 20th, 2021

Chicago Mayor Lightfoot To Pump $412 Million More Into Anti-Crime Plan That Doesn’t Work

Chicago Mayor Lightfoot To Pump $412 Million More Into Anti-Crime Plan That Doesn’t Work By Mark Glennon, of Wirepoints, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot is planning to pump $412 million into its community safety plan, much of it targeting 15 of the city’s most violent community areas. But the plan is already a proven failure. Furthermore, it has been subject to little transparency or accountability and its funding is unsustainable. That’s according to a great column in Thursday’s Chicago Sun-Times, based on crime data being kept by the Sun-Times and experts it interviewed. The plan, called “Our City, Our Safety,” was unveiled more than a year ago and has produced few results, and many of the communities it targeted have only gotten more dangerous, the Sun-Times reported: Fatal shootings are higher in 10 of the 15 community areas: East Garfield Park, West Pullman, North Lawndale, Greater Grand Crossing, Auburn Gresham, Englewood, Roseland, Chatham, South Shore and Chicago Lawn. Only the Austin area measured about the same as last year. Four are better: South Lawndale, West Garfield Park, Humboldt Park and West Englewood. Funding for the plan was approved by the City Council in the budget drafted by Lightfoot. It includes more than $50 million going to more than two dozen organizations for street outreach, victim services, transitional jobs, scholarships and domestic violence. Who are those neighborhood organizations and do they spend the money effectively? That’s where the transparency and accountability issues arise. More than half the money is not earmarked for any particular neighborhood, according to the Sun-Times, and “there is little information available on what exactly these groups are doing and how effective they’ve been” and it has it “has been difficult to gauge whether money spent so far has been going where it’s needed most.” Funding for the plan is temporary. Over 70% of the city’s violence prevention budget through 2024 is funded by federal American Rescue Plan money, according to those interviewed by the Sun-Times, but that was a one-time shot. “They’re not going to continue the funding,” said Professor Lance Williams with Northeastern Illinois University’s Urban Studies Department. “ Adding to the challenges, the mayor has struggled to keep key people involved in crafting the plan and carrying it out.” The more fundamental problem with the plan, not discussed by the Sun-Times, is that it is not about law enforcement and policing. It instead addresses supposed underlying causes of crime with longer term solutions, namely these, which the Sun-Times listed: $85 million on violence intervention, including victim services, street outreach and other violence reduction programs. $62 million for affordable housing and homeless programs. $80 million for assistance to families and youth jobs. $40 million for health and wellness programs. $114.6 million for community development and parks. $30 million for small business. Chicago, however, has an immediate and overwhelming plague of violence, the fast response to which must include firm policing and law enforcement, including prison for violent offenders. Crime certainly does have underlying causes that must be addressed with long term solutions. Policing is a Band-Aid on deeper problems. Some elements of the plan therefore may have merit, but the emergency is now and so is the need for policing and prosecutions. Ironically, Lightfoot effectively acknowledged that, though in a foolish way, just last week. She blamed some of the primary victims for not paying for the protection the city is failing to provide. “Some of the retailers downtown and [on] Michigan Avenue, I will tell you, I’m disappointed that they are not doing more to take safety and make it a priority, she said. “For example, we still have retailers that won’t institute plans like having security officers in their stores, making sure that they’ve got cameras that are actually operational, locking up their merchandise at night.” It should come as no surprise that the Our City, Our Safety Plan has not worked. Look through it yourself. It’s mostly social justice gibberish. “Equity” appears 30 times. “Violence is an equity issue,” it says. “Empower and heal people” is its “Pillar No 1.” “Racism” appears 105 times. “At the root of violence is systemic racism which has been pervasive throughout Chicago and its history,” it says. “Participate in local and national collaboratives to elevate policy positions,” whatever that means, is one of its strategies. Lightfoot has no real plan to stop the violence. Her’s is Otter’s Plan. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/17/2021 - 21:25.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 17th, 2021

Lennar Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2021 Results

MIAMI, Dec. 15, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- 2021 Fourth Quarter Highlights – comparisons to the prior year quarter Net earnings per diluted share increased 39% to $3.91 (increased 55% to $4.36, excluding mark to market losses on strategic technology investments) Net earnings increased 35% to $1.2 billion (increased 50% to $1.3 billion, excluding mark to market losses on strategic technology investments) Revenues increased 24% to $8.4 billion Deliveries increased 11% to 17,819 homes New orders increased 2% to 15,539 homes; new orders dollar value increased 16% to $7.3 billion Backlog increased 26% to 23,771 homes; backlog dollar value increased 45% to $11.4 billion Homebuilding operating earnings of $1.8 billion, compared to operating earnings of $1.1 billion Gross margin on home sales improved 300 basis points ("bps") to 28.0% S,G&A expenses as a % of revenues from home sales improved 150 bps to 6.0% Net margin on home sales improved 460 bps to 22.0% Financial Services operating earnings of $111.4 million, compared to operating earnings of $151.2 million Multifamily operating earnings of $9.3 million, compared to operating earnings of $26.7 million Lennar Other operating loss of $176.2 million, compared to operating loss of $1.2 million Years of supply owned homesites decreased to 3.0 years Controlled homesites increased to 59% Homebuilding cash and cash equivalents of $2.7 billion Retired $850 million of homebuilding senior notes due in fiscal year 2022 Repurchased 10 million shares of Lennar common stock for $977.4 million Homebuilding debt to total capital of 18.3%, the lowest in the Company's history 2021 Fiscal Year Highlights – comparisons to the prior year Net earnings, revenues, deliveries, new orders and net margin for 2021 were the highest in the Company's history Net earnings per diluted share increased 82% to $14.27 (increased 66% to $13.00, excluding mark to market gains on strategic technology investments) Net earnings increased 80% to $4.4 billion (increased 64% to $4.0 billion, excluding mark to market gains on strategic technology investments) Revenues increased 21% to $27.1 billion Deliveries increased 13% to 59,825 homes New orders increased 15% to 64,543 homes Net margin on home sales improved 510 bps to 19.7% Retired $1.15 billion of homebuilding senior notes due in fiscal year 2022 Repurchased 14 million shares of Lennar common stock for $1.37 billion Return on equity improved 790 bps to 22.6% Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN), one of the nation's largest homebuilders, today reported results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended November 30, 2021. Fourth quarter net earnings attributable to Lennar in 2021 were $1.2 billion, or $3.91 per diluted share, compared to $882.8 million, or $2.82 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2020. Net earnings attributable to Lennar for the year ended November 30, 2021 were $4.4 billion, or $14.27 per diluted share, compared to $2.5 billion, or $7.85 per diluted share for the year ended November 30, 2020. Stuart Miller, Executive Chairman of Lennar, said, "While supply chain challenges continued to dominate both the homebuilding and the broader economic narrative in the fourth quarter, we are pleased to report record fourth quarter earnings of $1.2 billion, or $3.91 per diluted share, compared to $882.8 million or $2.82 per diluted share for the quarter last year. Excluding mark to market losses on our public strategic technology investments, fourth quarter 2021 earnings were $1.3 billion, or $4.36 per diluted share. For the full year, we delivered just under 60,000 homes generating EPS of $14.27 per diluted share ($13.00 per diluted share before mark to market gains) for an 82% increase over the prior year (66% before mark to market gains)." "Our record fourth quarter results reflect both continued strength in the housing market across the country, and continued housing supply shortage driven by limited entitled land, labor and supply chain constraints, and 10 years of production shortfall. While our new orders grew a controlled 2% compared to last year's seasonally strong fourth quarter, we achieved a homebuilding gross margin of 28.0% and homebuilding SG&A of 6.0%, leading to a 22.0% net margin, all of which are all-time Company records." Rick Beckwitt, Co-Chief Executive Officer and Co-President of Lennar, said, "During the fourth quarter, our community count increased 7% year over year as we continued to make excellent progress on our land light strategy. This was evidenced by our years owned supply of homesites improving to our previously stated goal of 3.0 years at the end of the fourth quarter from 3.5 years last year, and our controlled homesite percentage increasing to 59% from 39% for those same periods." "We ended the quarter with $2.7 billion in cash, no borrowings on our $2.5 billion revolver and homebuilding debt to capital of 18.3%, an all-time Company low. Our land lighter model resulted in incremental cash flow generation during the fourth quarter which we used towards the repurchase of 10 million shares of our common stock for just under $1 billion, and debt reduction of $850 million. These transactions, combined with our significant earnings, contributed to a return on equity of over 22%." Jon Jaffe, Co-Chief Executive Officer and Co-President of Lennar, said, "During the quarter, our homebuilding machine continued to be laser focused on production, even while our cycle time expanded about two weeks from the third quarter driven by rapidly changing supply chain issues. The impact of supply chain issues and increased cycle times were partially offset by accelerated construction starts throughout the year." "In this turbulent environment, we are confident that we are implementing the right playbook with our Builder of Choice position and our simplified Everything's Included® business model to successfully navigate current supply chain dynamics. Our strong and deep-rooted relationships with our trade partners have helped mitigate the impact of labor and supply shortages. Our quarterly starts and sales pace remained strong and consistent at 4.5 homes and 4.3 homes per community, respectively, in the fourth quarter." Mr. Miller concluded, "The housing industry continues to exhibit strong demand, outweighing supply, and we are confident that we will continue to generate solid growth and enhance our current market position. Accordingly, as we look forward to 2022, we expect to deliver approximately 67,000 homes with a 27.0% - 27.5% gross margin for the year, with more or less 12,500 homes at a gross margin of approximately 26.75% in the first quarter. Overall, we are operating from a position of strength with an excellent balance sheet enabling us to continue to execute on our core strategies." RESULTS OF OPERATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED NOVEMBER 30, 2021 COMPARED TOTHREE MONTHS ENDED NOVEMBER 30, 2020 Homebuilding Revenues from home sales increased 26% in the fourth quarter of 2021 to $8.0 billion from $6.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020. Revenues were higher primarily due to an 11% increase in the number of home deliveries and a 14% increase in the average sales price. New home deliveries increased to 17,819 homes in the fourth quarter of 2021 from 16,090 homes in the fourth quarter of 2020. The average sales price of homes delivered was $448,000 in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to $393,000 in the fourth quarter of 2020. Gross margins on home sales were $2.2 billion, or 28.0%, in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to $1.6 billion, or 25.0%, in the fourth quarter of 2020. During the fourth quarter of 2021, an increase in revenues per square foot was offset by an increase in costs per square foot as the majority of homes delivered during the fourth quarter of 2021 had higher costs from lumber purchases made earlier in the year. Overall, gross margins improved year over year as land costs on homes closed remained relatively flat while interest expense decreased as a result of our focus on reducing debt. Selling, general and administrative expenses were $477.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to $475.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2020. As a percentage of revenues from home sales, selling, general and administrative expenses improved to 6.0% in the fourth quarter of 2021, from 7.5% in the fourth quarter of 2020. This was the lowest percentage for a quarter in the Company's history primarily due to a decrease in broker commissions and benefits of the Company's technology efforts. Financial Services Operating earnings for the Financial Services segment were $111.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to $151.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2020. The decrease in operating earnings was primarily due to lower mortgage net margins driven by a more competitive mortgage market. Other Ancillary Businesses Operating earnings for the Multifamily segment were $9.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to $26.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2020. Operating loss for the Lennar Other segment was $176.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to an operating loss of $1.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2020. The Lennar Other operating loss for the fourth quarter of 2021 was primarily due to mark to market losses on the Company's strategic technology investments that went public during the year ended November 30, 2021. RESULTS OF OPERATIONS YEAR ENDED NOVEMBER 30, 2021 COMPARED TOYEAR ENDED NOVEMBER 30, 2020 Homebuilding Revenues from home sales increased 22% in the year ended November 30, 2021 to $25.3 billion from $20.8 billion in the year ended November 30, 2020. Revenues were higher primarily due to a 13% increase in the number of home deliveries and an 8% increase in the average sales price. New home deliveries increased to 59,825 homes in the year ended November 30, 2021 from 52,925 homes in the year ended November 30, 2020. The average sales price of homes delivered was $424,000 in the year ended November 30, 2021, compared to $395,000 in the year ended November 30, 2020. Gross margins on home sales were $6.8 billion, or 26.8%, in the year ended November 30, 2021, compared to $4.7 billion, or 22.8%, in the year ended November 30, 2020. The gross margin percentage on home sales increased primarily as a result of price appreciation as the increase in revenues per square foot outpaced the increase in costs per square foot. Selling, general and administrative expenses were $1.8 billion in the year ended November 30, 2021, compared to $1.7 billion in the year ended November 30, 2020. As a percentage of revenues from home sales, selling, general and administrative expenses improved to 7.1% in the year ended November 30, 2021, from 8.1% in the year ended November 30, 2020, due to a decrease in broker commissions and benefits of the Company's technology efforts. Financial Services Operating earnings for the Financial Services segment were $491.0 million ($490.4 million net of noncontrolling interests) in the year ended November 30, 2021, compared to $481.0 million ($495.0 million net of noncontrolling interests) in the year ended November 30, 2020. The year ended November 30, 2020 included a $61.4 million gain on the deconsolidation of a previously consolidated entity. Excluding this gain, the improvement in operating earnings during the year ended November 30, 2021 was primarily due to an increase in volume and margin in the title businesses, partially offset by lower mortgage net margins driven by a more competitive mortgage market. Other Ancillary Businesses Operating earnings for the Multifamily segment were $21.5 million in the year ended November 30, 2021, compared to $22.7 million in the year ended November 30, 2020. Operating earnings for the Lennar Other segment were $733.0 million in the year ended November 30, 2021, compared to an operating loss of $10.3 million in the year ended November 30, 2020. The operating earnings for the year ended November 30, 2021 were primarily due to mark to market gains on the Company's strategic technology investments that went public during the year and the sale of our solar business. Debt Transactions In the fourth quarter of 2021, the Company retired $600 million aggregate principal amount of its 4.125% senior notes due January 2022 at par and retired early, at a premium, $250 million aggregate principal amount of its 5.375% senior notes due October 2022. The loss on early retirement of the $250 million senior notes was $7.4 million. During the year ended November 30, 2021, the Company retired $1.15 billion aggregate principal amount of senior notes which included those senior notes described above and $300 million aggregate principal amount of its 6.25% senior notes due December 2021. Tax Rate For the years ended November 30, 2021 and 2020, the Company had a tax provision of $1.4 billion and $656.2 million, respectively, which resulted in an overall effective income tax rate of 23.5% and 21.0%, respectively. The overall effective income tax rate was lower in 2020 primarily due to the retroactive extension of the new energy efficient home tax credit during the first quarter of 2020. Shares Repurchases During the fourth quarter of 2021, the Company repurchased 10 million shares of its common stock for $977.4 million at an average per share price of $97.74. For the year ended November 30, 2021, the Company repurchased 14.0 million shares of its common stock for $1.37 billion at an average per share price of $97.45. Liquidity At November 30, 2021, the Company had $2.7 billion of Homebuilding cash and cash equivalents and no outstanding borrowings under its $2.5 billion revolving credit facility, thereby providing $5.2 billion of available capacity. 2022 Guidance The following are the Company's expected results of its homebuilding and financial services activities for the first quarter and fiscal year 2022: First Quarter 2022 Fiscal Year 2022 New Orders 14,800 - 15,100 Deliveries About 12,500 About 67,000 Average Sales Price About $460,000 About $460,000 Gross Margin % on Home Sales About 26.75% 27.0% - 27.5% S,G&A as a % of Home Sales 7.8% - 7.9% 6.8% - 6.9% Financial Services Operating Earnings $85 million - $90 million $440 million - $450 million About Lennar Lennar Corporation, founded in 1954, is one of the nation's leading builders of quality homes for all generations. Lennar builds affordable, move-up and active adult homes primarily under the Lennar brand name. Lennar's Financial Services segment provides mortgage financing, title and closing services primarily for buyers of Lennar's homes and, through LMF Commercial, originates mortgage loans secured primarily by commercial real estate properties throughout the United States. Lennar's Multifamily segment is a nationwide developer of high-quality multifamily rental properties. LENX drives Lennar's technology, innovation and strategic investments. For more information about Lennar, please visit Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: Some of the statements in this press release are "forward-looking statements," as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements relating to the homebuilding market and other markets in which we participate. You can identify forward-looking statements by the fact that these statements do not relate strictly to historical or current matters. Rather, forward-looking statements relate to anticipated or expected events, activities, trends or results. Accordingly, these forward-looking statements should be evaluated with consideration given to the many risks and uncertainties inherent in our business that could cause actual results and events to differ materially from those anticipated by the forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause such differences include the potential negative impact to our business of the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic; slowdowns in real estate markets in regions where we have significant Homebuilding or Multifamily development activities; supply shortages and increased costs related to construction materials and labor; cost increases related to real estate taxes and insurance; reduced availability of mortgage financing, increased interest rates or increased competition in the mortgage industry; reductions in the market value of the Company's investments in public companies; decreased demand for our homes or Multifamily rental apartments; natural disasters or catastrophic events for which our insurance may not provide adequate coverage; our inability to successfully execute our strategies, including our land lighter strategy and our planned spin-off of certain businesses; a decline in the value of the land and home inventories we maintain and resulting possible future writedowns of the carrying value of our real estate assets; unfavorable losses in legal proceedings; conditions in the capital, credit and financial markets; changes in laws, regulations or the regulatory environment affecting our business, and the risks described in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended November 30, 2020. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. A conference call to discuss the Company's fourth quarter earnings will be held at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, December 16, 2021. The call will be broadcast live on the Internet and can be accessed through the Company's website at If you are unable to participate in the conference call, the call will be archived at for 90 days. A replay of the conference call will also be available later that day by calling 203-369-3605 and entering 5723593 as the confirmation number.   LENNAR CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES Selected Revenues and Operating Information (In thousands, except per share amounts) (unaudited) Three Months Ended Years Ended November 30, November 30, 2021 2020 2021 2020 Revenues: Homebuilding $ 8,015,636 6,354,416 25,545,242 20,981,136 Financial Services 228,956 258,319 898,745 890,311 Multifamily 188,395 205,424 665,232 576,328 Lennar Other 573 7,731 21,457 41,079 Total revenues $ 8,433,560 6,825,890 27,130,676 22,488,854 Homebuilding operating earnings $ 1,756,274 1,083,404 5,031,762 2,988,907 Financial Services operating earnings 111,404 151,230 491,014 480,952 Multifamily operating earnings 9,323 26,682 21,453 22,681 Lennar Other operating earnings (loss) (176,186) (1,211) 733,035 (10,334) Corporate general and administrative expenses (102,191) (86,631) (398,381) (333,446) Charitable foundation contribution (17,819) (8,828) (59,825) (24,972) Earnings before income taxes 1,580,805 1,164,646 5,819,058 3,123,788 Provision for income taxes (387,155) (273,737) (1,362,509) (656,235) Net earnings (including net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests) 1,193,650 890,909 4,456,549 2,467,553 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests 3,159 8,149 26,438 2,517 Net earnings attributable to Lennar $ 1,190,491 882,760 4,430,111 2,465,036 Average shares outstanding: Basic 301,238 309,151 306,612.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaDec 15th, 2021

Bjarke Ingels launches new housing company

Architect Bjarke Ingels has partnered with former Google software developer Nick Chim and WeWork development boss Roni Bahar to form a new housing company. Nabr aims to make shopping for a sustainable – and affordable – apartment as easy as buying an electric car and has launched its first project... The post Bjarke Ingels launches new housing company appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. Architect Bjarke Ingels has partnered with former Google software developer Nick Chim and WeWork development boss Roni Bahar to form a new housing company. Nabr aims to make shopping for a sustainable – and affordable – apartment as easy as buying an electric car and has launched its first project in San Jose. Called SoFA One, the property will be located at 415 South 3rd Street in downtown San Jose’s arts district. It will feature 125 apartments that consumers can secure with a one percent payment. Built with sustainably-sourced North American timber, the SoFA One will offer residents a carbon neutral lifestyle, with all-electric design, an energy-efficient facade and large private balconies. Prospective residents will be able to customize their home using Nabr’s software platform, including picking between different design and financing packages. The building itself has been co-deisgned by BIG-Bjarke Ingels Group. Nabr won’t own the property, but will sell the Nabr branded units directly to the consumer. “The U.S is currently experiencing the worst housing crisis since World War II,” said Bahar. “Part of the problem is that there are three times the number of single-family homes built each year than there are apartments, and the vast majority of the latter are rentals. This leaves consumers only two options: pay high rent for a tiny apartment in the city, or buy a home in the suburbs. We started Nabr to change this trajectory.” Nabr – which recently closed a $14 million seed funding round led by Zigg Capital, with participation from Robert Wennett and DivcoWest – will work with “supply chain partners” to create the modular property. Explained Chim, “We founded Nabr to build a high-volume, integrated housing production system, developing the product in partnership with strategic supply chain partners from start to finish. We are starting in the Bay Area, where residents face an incredibly expensive real estate market that few can afford to buy. “Our long-term vision is to deliver projects in less than half the time and at price points affordable to middle-income households nationally.” “Our goal is to pioneer a new sustainable urban lifestyle. At SoFA one, residents have access to a Scandinavian-standard of quality of life, yet they are still in the hub of Silicon Valley, America’s greatest innovation ecosystem. Residents get the best of both worlds,” added Ingels. The development is roughly a mile from Diridon Caltrain Station, one block from San Jose State University, and centrally located near all major tech employers, offering residents abundant access to commuting options. Amenities include a shared rooftop park, electric vehicle charging, bike and personal storage, community garden, and access to wellness and fitness facilities. Ground level retail spaces will be programmed to complement the neighborhood and serve as gathering points for the community. SoFA One is slated to break ground in summer 2022, with occupancy expected by summer 2023. The post Bjarke Ingels launches new housing company appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklyDec 15th, 2021

Halpern secures $65M to build Jersey City apartments

 JLL Capital Markets has arranged $65 million in construction financing for the development of 49 Fisk Street, a 337-unit, luxury, mid-rise multi-housing project in Jersey City, New Jersey. JLL worked on behalf of the developer, Halpern Real Estate Ventures, to secure the four-year, floating-rate, non-recourse loan through Bank OZK. Located on a 1.84-acre... The post Halpern secures $65M to build Jersey City apartments appeared first on Real Estate Weekly.  JLL Capital Markets has arranged $65 million in construction financing for the development of 49 Fisk Street, a 337-unit, luxury, mid-rise multi-housing project in Jersey City, New Jersey. JLL worked on behalf of the developer, Halpern Real Estate Ventures, to secure the four-year, floating-rate, non-recourse loan through Bank OZK. Located on a 1.84-acre site in Jersey City’s West Side neighborhood, 49 Fisk Street will redevelop a former industrial building with a six story, luxury apartment building featuring 337 market rate apartments and 143 parking spaces. The completed project will include a mix of studio, one- and two-bedroom units averaging 612 square feet. 49 Fisk will be a strategically designed, amenity focused development that addresses new consumer preferences in a post-Covid world with more than 48,000 square feet of lifestyle and amenity space. The building design will emphasize innovation and sustainability, with key focuses on resident health and wellness and the potential for extended hybrid work models. Apartments will feature modern finishes, including stainless steel appliances, nine-foot ceilings, quartz countertops and wood-style flooring, along with having stackable washers and dryers. Community amenities will include co-working spaces, a large 14,000 square foot green park, a 18,500 square foot rooftop deck with grilling stations, a speak-easy style bar, a community garden, game room, oversized fitness center and a shuttle service to the Journal Square PATH Station. 49 Fisk Street is a short five minute walk to the West Side Avenue Light Rail on the Hudson-Bergen Line, which provides access to both Wall Street and Penn Station within 30 to 40 minutes via connections to the PATH. The project’s shuttle service to the Journal Square PATH station will provide residents with additional options for commuting directly into the lower Manhattan World Trade Center Station within 30 minutes. Additionally, the property is 15 minutes from Newark Liberty International Airport, the New York Waterway Ferry and the New Jersey Transit Hoboken Terminal station, providing additional transportation to nearby employment, retail and entertainment hubs. The property is located in the West Side submarket, one of Jersey City’s newest transformative and gentrifying neighborhoods.  The area has demonstrated impressive market fundamentals over the last several years followed by a wave of new investment that has included New Jersey City University’s 22-acre expansion project and the 95-acre Bayfront redevelopment. 49 Fisk Street is expected to open its doors by late 2023. The JLL Capital Markets Debt Advisory team representing the developer was led by Executive Managing Director Mike Tepedino, Senior Managing Director Michael Gigliotti, Directors Thomas E. Didio, Jr. and Max Custer and Associate Carlos Silva. “Jersey City has been the beneficiary of tremendous post-COVID rental demand for multi-housing. Bank OZK was quick to recognize this demand resurgence and bid the non-recourse financing aggressively for the borrower,” said Didio, Jr. “This transaction marks our 20th in Hudson County since the onset of COVID, equating to more than $615 million in total deal volume.” “We are thrilled to have aided Halpern Real Estate Ventures in arranging construction financing for 49 Fisk Street,” added Custer. “HREV designed a carefully thought-out project with best-in-class features and amenities which will undoubtedly lead to tremendous success.” The post Halpern secures $65M to build Jersey City apartments appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklyDec 15th, 2021

Massive new apartment development coming to Hudson River waterfront

New York developer The Maxal Group, and its partner Envirofinancing Group, is set to build 1,200 new apartments on 19 acres of the Hudson River waterfront in Edgewater, NJ. The local planning board just approved their plans for transform the old Hess Oil Company site at 615 River Road. The... The post Massive new apartment development coming to Hudson River waterfront appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. New York developer The Maxal Group, and its partner Envirofinancing Group, is set to build 1,200 new apartments on 19 acres of the Hudson River waterfront in Edgewater, NJ. The local planning board just approved their plans for transform the old Hess Oil Company site at 615 River Road. The new development will be one the largest mixed-use projects on the Jersey Gold Coast. The 1.2 million square foot project will be built in three, 25-story towers that will offer residents breathtaking views of the Manhattan skyline.  The project will also include 20,000 s/f of commercial space, a two-acre public park, a waterfront walkway connected to the existing river walk in the borough, and ferry service to New York. To relieve traffic on River Road, the developers propose to construct, bus “super stops” that will create loading lanes for both north and south bound buses along River Road. Among the 1,200, one-two- and three-bedroom apartments will be 180 affordable housing units which will provide 30 percent of the borough’s state-mandated affordable housing obligation of 624 units. A five-acre parcel on the western side of the property that straddles River Road is being set aside as the possible site for construction of a new school. “We want to thank the Planning Board for granting us the approvals that we have long sought. We look forward to bringing a sophisticated, quality complex to Edgewater,” said Bruce Sturman, a managing dDirector of the Maxal Group. Sturman said with the planning board approvals in hand his firm can begin applying for building permits as soon as possible. Thomas O’Gara a managing director at Maxal said: “The 615 River Road project will be done with the same extraordinary attention to detail that can be found at our recent luxury residential project that we developed with Hartz Mountain Industries at 1500 Harbor Boulevard in Weehawken.” The River Road project is designed to create the maximum amount of open space to provide visual corridors to the Hudson River and New York City Skyline. The design of the three towers at 615 River Road is being done by the architectural firm FXCollaborative of New York. The post Massive new apartment development coming to Hudson River waterfront appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklyDec 13th, 2021