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Category: topSource: bizjournalsJun 24th, 2022

26 of our favorite books to give as gifts, from a bestselling cookbook to must-read memoirs

From coffee table books and juicy novels to a Book of the Month subscription, here are the Insider Reviews team's best books to give as gifts. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.From coffee table books and juicy novels to a Book of the Month subscription, here are the Insider Reviews team's best books to give as gifts.Amazon; Target; Crystal Cox/Gilbert Espinoza/Business Insider Books (and book subscriptions) are some of the most crowd-pleasing gifts. While relatively inexpensive, book gifts can feel really thoughtful. Below, we've listed 26 of the best books you can give as gifts — from guidebooks to collectibles.  If following the "If they like X, then buy them Y" formula, there's one universal gift you can't really go wrong with: a book. You can find books for every interest and type of reader — from beautiful coffee table additions to in-depth explorations of hobbies. While many of us are on a budget (or trying to find a gift for someone who usually buys whatever they want for themselves), books somehow never feel impersonal or insignificant. As relatively inexpensive and easy to obtain as they are, they can be some of the most meaningful gifts we receive — especially if we really know the giftee's interests and literary taste. As you'll find below, many of us still remember the first time we read a particular story — or who was responsible for gifting us with a new fictional world or a fresh perspective.Below, you'll find 26 of the best books you can gift, plus a great book subscription service, according to members of Insider's Reviews team. 26 great book gifts to give in 2022:“Red, White and Royal Blue” by Casey McQuistonAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $9.97I gift books all the time, but the one book I've made sure to give to as many friends as possible is Casey McQuiston's debut romance. I actually own three copies myself because I keep loaning it out. This queer romance between the first son of the United States and the Prince of England is laugh-out-loud funny while also dealing with some serious topics in a way that doesn't feel too forced. The story has stuck with me since I first read it, which is why I'll never stop buying this book for friends who are new to reading romance, looking for something different, or just want a book to make them laugh. So far, it's been a hit with everyone I've given it to. — Angela Tricarico, streaming editorial fellow"100 Selected Poems" by e.e. cummingsAmazonAvailable at Amazon, $12.16This Cummings collection holds the poems that made me love poetry. I'll never forget reading the line "nobody, not even the rain, has such small hands" for the first time. The circular language and unusual syntax make e.e. cummings an intimidating poet, but when you stop trying to break the poems down, the meaning floats through. That's why I love gifting this collection – not only are the lines legendary, but it's an exercise in letting yourself just enjoy something beautiful. — Lily Alig, reporter"White Fragility" by Robin DiangeloAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $8.16The term "white fragility" refers to the destructive reaction white people often have when confronted with their racial biases. Rather than listening to individuals who are trying to teach them how their actions are affecting members of marginalized groups, a fragile white person will immediately get defensive. This is definitely something I've recognized in my behavior and continue to work to fix. It's a process. "White Fragility" addresses this. It teaches white folks that the world will be a better place if we learn how our conscious and unconscious biases are hurting BIPOC. Instead of getting defensive, we need to understand that we are going to screw up. If we learn from our mistakes and are thankful for those who point them out, we can make progress in addressing the systemic racism in this country. So, who do I give "White Fragility" to? I've gifted it to friends and family who have just started to recognize their racist tendencies and are looking to do better. — James Brains, reporter"The Art of Gathering" by Priya ParkerAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $13.94I haven't gifted this one to anyone yet, but it would definitely be my top pick. It teaches you practical tips for having more meaningful gatherings and conversations with people, starting from who you invite and what your setup looks like. It's the kind of book that really pushes you to connect with others and demystifies the whole process. It's one of the few self-help books where I was genuinely surprised by every tip as it countered what I always knew about hosting people or making plans. — Julia Pugachevsky, hobbies, books, and gifts editor"Say Nothing: A True Story of Murder and Memory in Northern Ireland" by Patrick Radden KeefeAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $15.76I buy this book for everyone. It's a once-in-a-lifetime creation: a rigorous, incisive investigative journalist trains his focus on a major historical event that almost no one fully understands — The Troubles. Radden Keefe weaves a propulsive, can't-put-it-down tale that you'd normally only find in fiction — driven by the sort of improbably rich characters that come from mountains of research. Radden Keefe is as detailed in his storytelling as he is humane, and the murky 30-year war-that-wasn't-a-war comes to life around you. Beyond nailing down what happened, why, and how, Radden Keefe also investigates the intangible — the very nature of memory in a society that prides itself on keeping its mouth shut and believes in noble failure. It's a big book, but it's unmissable for fans of history, thrillers, or Ireland. Buy it for friends, parents, grandparents, in-laws, etc. — Mara Leighton, senior reporter"Wolf Hall" by Hilary MantelAmazonAvailable at Amazon, $10.98Or buy the whole trilogy at Amazon, $33.99The key to gifting books is to know your audience: What do they like to read? For my history buff friends, I always recommend "Wolf Hall" and the other two books in Hilary Mantel's trilogy about Thomas Cromwell during the reign of Henry VIII (assuming they have not read them yet). Both "Wolf Hall" and "Bringing Up the Bodies" won the Booker Prize, and the third volume in the trilogy, "The Mirror and the Light," was nominated. Awards aren't everything, but these books truly shine with unique storytelling, shifting perspectives, and prose that makes you feel like you're inside Cromwell's head.  — Malarie Gokey, deputy editor"The Year of Magical Thinking" by Joan DidionAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $11.71My sister almost always gifts me books and, because she's a voracious reader, they're typically the best ones I read all year. Sort of like a personalized Book of the Month.The titles I've enjoyed most include "Pachinko", "A Little Life", and, my all-time favorite, "The Year of Magical Thinking." It's written in the aftermath of Didion unexpectedly losing her partner of 40 years, John Dunne, and is an unusually secular look at grief. It may not seem like the kind of thing you'd gift, but, here it is — maybe the best thing I've ever received. Didion, as always, is surgically honest and explorative. This book was intimate, original, and unforgettable — it made me feel grateful for my relationships long after I put it down.  — Mara Leighton, senior reporter"Salt, Fat, Acid, Heat: Salt, Fat, Acid, Heat: Mastering the Elements of Good Cooking" by Samin NosratAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $16.65This book is more than just a cookbook. It's a textbook I'd recommend any home chef read cover to cover. It dives deep into the basic elements that make food taste good and is full of practical, easy-to-understand tips that have stuck with me for years. One of my favorite things about the book, aside from its prose, is its delightful illustrations that make each page so pleasant to read. It's the perfect gift — especially for someone who may be a bit burnt out by quarantine cooking.  — Emily Cohn, deputy editor in chief"I Will Teach You to be Rich" by Ramit SethiAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $12.87I'm often asked to recommend a personal finance book, and pretty much without fail I go straight to "I Will Teach You to Be Rich." Ideal for new grads and younger folks who need a game plan for adulthood, it's also a straightforward, accessible, no-nonsense checklist for anyone who wants to take more control of their money and their life, no matter where they're starting. I regularly give away my copy, then buy another just in case I need to give it to someone else! — Libby Kane, executive editor, personal finance'Tiny Beautiful Things: Advice on Love and Life from Dear Sugar' by Cheryl StrayedAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $13This title — which a friend first sent to me because she loved it so much — is a great gift for a wide variety of people. It's a compilation of Strayed's "Dear Sugar" advice columns, which works well for people who traditionally find books too long to commit to. The topics are varied, so there's something for everyone, but Cheryl Strayed writes with the kind of generosity, compassion, and wit that's absent in much of today's instant communication. — Mara Leighton, senior reporter"What Kind of Woman" by Kate BaerAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $13.04Like many of us, I discovered poet Kate Baer through Instagram, where she captures moments in words and turns nasty messages from outspoken critics into introspective poems. I bought her debut book, "What Kind of Woman" as a gift for myself this year, and it's fabulous: thought-provoking, honest, and funny. Her work is just as welcoming to people who "don't like poetry," and since it was only just released this year, it's unlikely your recipient already has it. — Libby Kane, executive editor, personal finance"I Can Make You Feel Good" by Tyler MitchellAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $32.41Tyler Mitchell is one of photography's most notable contemporary stars. In his first book, "I Can Make You Feel Good" (2020), Mitchell depicts what he imagines a Black utopia could look like. As Mitchell wrote on Instagram in August, "I often think about what white fun looks like and this notion that Black people can't have the same... I feel an urgency to create a body of images where Black people are visualized as free, expressive, effortless, and sensitive."Mitchell's work reminds me of the quote often attributed to Albert Camus, "The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion." In response to the constant politicization of Black bodies, Mitchell creates a space where Black people are able to move more freely and be seen through a loving lens. His images are intimate, optimistic, and gentle. — Mara Leighton, senior reporterFor more coffee table books, you can find 27 of our coffee table recommendations here. "Big Friendship: How We Keep Each Other Close" by Aminatou Sow and Ann FriedmanAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $14.49This memoir of two BFFs going to therapy to mend their eventual long-distance friendship is a perfect gift for any of your close friends. Aminatou and Ann meet post-college and bond almost immediately, but when they deal with an accumulation of misunderstandings fueled by living far apart, they have a choice to work out their issues or move their separate ways. It's a great ode to platonic female friendship (which is sometimes treated as less important than a romantic partnership), and an honest portrayal of the work it takes to stay in each other's lives in the long term. — Julia Pugachevsky, hobbies, books, and gifts editor"The Eight" by Katherine NevilleAmazonAvailable at Amazon, $7.99Know someone who's super into chess after finishing "The Queen's Gambit"? "The Eight" is a fun romp spanning centuries and continents. First published in 1988, the novel moves between the French Revolution and the 1970s. Cat Velis is a computer expert who gets caught up in a quest while on assignment in Algiers. There are nuns on the run, an appearance by Napoleon, a mysterious chess set that supposedly belonged to Charlemagne, and a female chess master. — Jenny McGrath, contract guides editor"The Immortalists" by Chloe BenjaminAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $13.94For fiction lovers, this is one of my favorite books to gift and recommend. Here's the setup: A traveling psychic arrives in New York and tells four children their fortunes, including when each will die. The rest of the book explores how that fateful day informs each of their lives. Yes, it's a little weird, but it's also incredibly beautiful, moving, insightful, captivating, and like nothing else I've ever read. My favorite part of gifting this is that every friend who has read it immediately calls or texts me to discuss it when they finish, which has led to some fun and thoughtful discussions with friends and family.  — Hannah Freedman, associate travel editor"Wow, No Thank You." by Samantha IrbyAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $10.28I'd venture to say that any Samantha Irby essay collection is hilarious and perfect, but if your gift recipient has read them all already, this most recent iteration is bound to please. Some highlights from this delightful assortment include a detailed breakdown of Irby's workday ("Breakfast was over four hours ago, so I start with lunch") and the awkwardness of making new friends as an adult. If you're the one introducing someone to Irby's work for the first time, this gift is even better! (And I'm personally very jealous they'll get to experience this writing for the first time.) — Julia Pugachevsky, hobbies, books, and gifts editor"Devotions: The Selected Poems of Mary Oliver" By Mary OliverAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $14.89One of my favorite gifts to give is a book I've loved (and believe the recipient will also love just as much). To me, it shows that you pay attention to someone's taste, and it creates the opportunity for a shared experience without needing to be in the same place. I've given this book to a few people, as well as this slimmer compilation. Mary Oliver may have won a Pulitzer for poetry, but her poems aren't stuffy or complicated — even people I know who don't like poetry have loved them. Oliver just loves life, and her poems feel peaceful and joyful — two things I want more of in my friends' and family's lives. — Mara Leighton, senior reporter"A Kids Book About …" by Ross SzaboA Kids Book AboutAvailable at Amazon and A Kids Book About, from $19.95I first spotted these books on Oprah's list of favorite things for 2020. Then I spent over an hour on the website trying to narrow down my order to just four books for the kiddos in my life. There's a book for every complex, tricky, or topical issue you can think of. Each one breaks down the featured concept in a way that's meant to spark curiosity and conversation between grown-ups and children. Examples include money, belonging, bullying, systemic racism, feminism, body image, divorce, adventure, and anxiety. They're beautifully designed and wonderfully written by an incredibly diverse group of writers whose voices and personal stories are weaved throughout. — Tanza Loudenback, correspondent, personal finance"In the Woods" by Tana FrenchAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $11.38Although I have not yet actually sent this book as a gift yet, I'm going to soon (don't tell anyone!). Tana French's Dublin Murder Squad books are my favorite mystery novels hands down, which is saying a lot because I deeply love mysteries and read a lot of them. French's writing is just beautiful, the suspense is riveting, and the way she looks inside of her characters' souls to spill their most deeply buried thoughts makes every book feel personal. The book follows two detectives as they investigate a murder in the woods by a Dublin suburb. It just so happens that the lead investigator was involved in an unsolved mystery in those exact same woods, but he remembers nothing about what happened or where his two missing friends are. The two mysteries intertwine, as memories the detective sought to repress come back. — Malarie Gokey, deputy editor"Ella Enchanted" by Gail Carson LevineAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $7.99My grandma gave me this book when I was eight years old, and it remains one of the best book gifts I've ever received. I've read it at least a dozen times, and I still read it now as an adult. It's the retelling of Cinderella with many magical twists, including a fairy who cursed the heroine Ella with the "gift" of obedience as a child, so she has to follow every command given to her. As she grows up, Ella tries to fight the curse and eventually break it for the sake of true love and the wellbeing of the kingdom she loves.  — Malarie Gokey, deputy editor"The Boys in the Boat: Nine Americans and Their Epic Quest for Gold at the 1936 Berlin Olympics" by Daniel James BrownTargetAvailable at Bookshop, $16.74"The Boys in the Boat" is one of my favorite books to gift, because it has something for everyone (especially those people who are nearly impossible to buy for): history, sports, personal drama, redemption … and since it's nonfiction, it's a great conversation starter as you descend down the rabbit hole of internet research (Did that actually happen? Is it on film? Are there pictures?). It's a great read, and a crowd-pleaser, too. — Libby Kane, executive editor, personal finance"Bringing Down the Duke" by Evie DunmoreAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $12.60I actually got this book through a Book of the Month subscription I was testing out, and I loved it so much I gifted a copy to a friend of mine who confessed that she, too, loves escapist romance reads. "Bringing Down the Duke" is actually the first in a series as well (the second book is just as good as this one, and I cannot wait for the third). It's a fun, historical romance novel that sizzles, but also has a lot of heart. My friend loved this book just as much as I did, and I think most historical romance fans will, too. — Malarie Gokey, deputy editor"Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World That Can't Stop Talking" by Susan CainAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $13.89If you have someone in your life who's always complained about feeling too shy or reserved, this book can validate a lot of their feelings. Cain, a fellow introvert herself, explores the parts of American culture that overemphasize the importance of extroversion and loudness when it comes to professional and social success. But she also shows how working independently, exercising caution, and listening to other people are underrated strengths — ones you can channel to make yourself stick out. For the friend, partner, or sibling who kinda hates big meetings, brainstorms, and parties, give them this book to curl up in a quiet corner with." — Julia Pugachevsky, hobbies, books, and gifts editor"The Underground Railroad" by Colson WhiteheadAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $12.07One of my friends gave me this Pulitzer Prize-winning book last Christmas, and I couldn't put it down. In the book, the Underground Railroad is a real railroad with trains and conductors that runs underground throughout the southern United States during the Antebellum Era. The story follows Cora as she escapes from the brutality of slavery in search of freedom. The story is at times heart-rending, terrifying, and exhilarating. It's also a powerful accounting of American history and one of its cruelest legacies. — Malarie Gokey, deputy editor"The Wedding Date" by. Jasmine GuilloryAmazonAvailable at Amazon and Bookshop, from $6.98Full disclosure: Author Jasmine Guillory is a fellow alum of my alma mater, and when she released "The Wedding Date," my friends and I all raced to buy it, then texted each other as we made our way through. If you know someone looking for a "beach read," or just a fun, sweet romance that will transport them from their couch when the beach isn't realistic, I've got the book for you. "The Wedding Date" will make you smile — and then go look up the following books in the series. — Libby Kane, executive editor, personal financeBook of the Month (three-month subscription)Book of the MonthAvailable at Book of the Month, from $49.99If you'd rather give them the joy of reading great books without the pressure of deciding what those books will be for them, we can't recommend Book of the Month enough. Every month, the bookworm in your life can choose a hardcover from five new titles and settle into a story that often goes on to gain national attention or win major literary awards; This is the same book club that selected "The Sun Also Rises" by Ernest Hemingway in its first year and "Gone with the Wind" by Margaret Mitchell in 1936 — before its mass recognition. More recently, we've credited it with turning us onto books like the page-turner "Circe." — Mara Leighton, senior reporterRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider15 hr. 25 min. ago

Why a Recession Isn’t Inevitable

The chances a recession will take hold are lower in the U.S. and Asia than in Europe. An ugly word has been shooting around the media like it’s going out of fashion: Recession, usually defined as two back-to-back quarters of a shrinking economy. Judging by recent headlines and rhetoric from experts, you’d think we are already there. But as with many things, the truth is more nuanced. To be sure, no one in their right mind wants to see a recession, as these periods of malaise usually coincide with higher unemployment and lower corporate profits. While there are growing risks of a recession as the world economy slows, the chances a recession will take hold are lower in the U.S. and Asia than in Europe. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] For now, what we have is a global economy in deceleration mode. “In a slowing economy, investors get anxious because that R-word may be right around the corner,” says Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group. Where the fear comes from The current worries aren’t just investor paranoia, however. First-quarter economic growth in the U.S.—the world’s largest economy—slowed to 3.5%, down from 5.5% during the last three months of 2021. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve instituted its most aggressive interest rate hike in nearly thirty years this month, as part of its war on rising prices. Inflation recently soared to an annual rate of 8.6%, up from 5.3% in August. A primary issue for investors is the Fed’s historic lack of skill in reducing inflation while avoiding a recession. “The Fed has never orchestrated a soft landing once after completing a tightening cycle,” Agati says. Indeed, the Fed’s inability to effectively get its timing right may be the biggest risk. Still, there are many reasons for optimism. “We don’t see the probability of a recession in 2022,” Agati says. “We think the economy holds up,” She sees a mere one-in-three chance of a U.S. recession next year. Overblown worries That makes sense to a handful of other economy-watchers, who see many signs of strength among perceived risks that are probably overblown. Sure, investors are alarmed by a weak stock market. So far this year, the S&P 500 index lost more than 20%, ushering in a bear market. Such a dramatic downdraft in the stock market could augur a recession. But it doesn’t always. In October 1987, stocks fell more than 20% in one day. There was no imminent recession. In late 2018, the same index retreated nearly 20%. Again, no recession followed. Similar, although smaller, declines occurred in late 2015, and the middle of both 2011 and 2012, again with no subsequent recessions. Another likely phantom worry is the recent softness in the U.S. housing market. Sales of new homes in the U.S. dropped to an annualized rate of 591,000 in April, from 831,000 in January. While that doesn’t sound good, the slowdown likely won’t be prolonged or severe, experts note. Over the last decade, home builders have constructed fewer houses than necessary to keep pace with population growth and the essential replacement of dilapidated structures. That means there will almost certainly be a bounce-back in demand for real estate. “It is universally agreed that we have a housing shortage,” says Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Management. “We don’t think housing goes into a death spiral.” The homebuilding downturn likely means the U.S. economy will not grow as fast as it has recently. But that is different from a six-month-long contraction of the whole economy, which defines a recession. “We see a slowdown,” says Thomas A. Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager at Globalt Investments in Atlanta. Hidden Bright Spots Meanwhile, the job market looks vibrant. “Employment remains strong,” Martin says. The recent monthly employment report shows that the U.S. added 390,000 jobs during May, which exceeds the growth in the pool of active workers. And the unemployment rate remained steady at a historically low 3.6%. That’s the opposite of typical recession news. In April 2020, the peak of the pandemic-led recession, unemployment jumped to 14.7% up from 4.4% the previous month. Recessions tend to hit corporate profits hard. And yet Wall Street is forecasting the opposite. New York-based investment bank Goldman Sachs is currently predicting an increase in earnings for the companies in the S&P 500 index of 8% this year and 6% in 2023. The U.S. energy sector is also booming. Consumers are contending with higher gas prices, but at the same time, the U.S. is exporting liquified natural gas to Europe to supplement now-reduced energy supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A Chinese recovery Beyond the U.S., things look good too. China, the world’s second-largest economy and the driving economic force in Asia, looks likely to see a growth burst following temporary COVID-19-related lockdowns. The result of the restrictions was annual growth recently fell to 4.8% in the first quarter, down from 18.3% a year before. “I expect growth to recover, and they have all the means to cut rates and use fiscal measures,” says Adrien Pichoud, chief economist at Syz Bank. He expects Chinese growth to be strong, meaning it won’t be in recession. He says after the post-lockdown rebound, the Chinese economy will likely stabilize with annual growth of 5% to 5.5%. “If China stabilizes it will be good for the rest of Asia.” Real Concerns for Europe Europe is a different story. The single-currency area known as the eurozone is currently benefiting from government assistance to help deal with soaring energy and food costs. That amounts to around 1% of GDP. “We’re not talking small numbers here,” Pichoud says. However, the benefit of the subsidies will likely end by 2023, raising the risk of a European recession as the continent suffers from energy shortages. “We may face an environment where momentum is softer, and the headwinds of tighter financing raise the risk of recession,” Pichoud says......»»

Category: topSource: timeJun 28th, 2022

The Criminal Order Beneath The "Chaos" Of San Francisco"s Tenderloin

The Criminal Order Beneath The 'Chaos' Of San Francisco's Tenderloin Authored by Leighton Woodhouse via RealClearInvestigations, The epicenter of the political earthquakes rattling San Francisco’s progressive establishment is a 30-square-block neighborhood in the center of downtown known as the Tenderloin. Photo: Michael Shellenberger Adjacent to some of the city’s most famous attractions, including the high-end shopping district Union Square, the old money redoubt of Nob Hill, historic Chinatown, and the city’s gold-capped City Hall, it is home to a giant, open-air drug bazaar. Tents fill the sidewalks. Addicts sit on curbs and lean against walls, nodding off to their fentanyl and heroin fixes, or wander around in meth-induced psychotic states. Drug dealers stake out their turf and sell in broad daylight, while the immigrant families in the five-story, pre-war apartment buildings shepherd their kids to school, trying to maintain as normal an existence as they can. “If you happen to be walking through the Tenderloin and you feel unsafe, imagine what it feels like to live there,” said Joel Engardio, head of Stop Crime SF, a civilian public safety group. “The Tenderloin has one of the largest percentages of children in the city. It’s untenable, inexcusable to ask them to confront this hellscape.”  “The Tenderloin is out of control,” said Tom Ostly, a former San Francisco prosecutor who used to work there and lives nearby. “It has never been worse than it is now.” Nancy Tung, a prosecutor who once handled drug enforcement in San Francisco, called it “ground zero for human misery.” Kathy Looper, who has run a low-income, single resident occupancy hotel in the Tenderloin for more than 45 years, said, “It feels like we’re in Gotham,” adding that she once considered putting a spotlight on her hotel roof and projecting a Batman signal into the sky. The crime and disorder of the Tenderloin may appear to be symptoms of deep and mysterious sociological forces. Chesa Boudin, who was ousted last week as San Francisco’s district attorney because of his lenient policies, argued, “We can’t arrest and prosecute our way out of the problems that are afflicting the Tenderloin.” But there is a fairly straightforward kind of order beneath the chaos: an illicit market economy operating in plain sight. The Tenderloin is home to two sprawling, overlapping transnational organized crime networks – one centered on drugs and the other on theft – which thrive in that neighborhood because of the near-total absence of the enforcement of laws. The Tenderloin, an infamous attraction to some, next to some of the city's most famous attractions. Google Maps Crowded onto its street corners and inside the tents congesting the sidewalk, countless petty criminals play their roles in a structured and symbiotic criminal enterprise. Its denizens fall into four main groups: the boosters, typically homeless and addicted, who steal from local stores; the street fences who buy the stolen merchandise; the dealers who sell them drugs for the money they make from the fences; and, at the top of the stack, the drug cartel that supplies the dealers and the wholesale fences that resell the goods acquired by street fences. Each has a role to play in keeping the machine moving, and the police know exactly how to disrupt it. Experts say the city could, in fact, arrest and prosecute its way out of most of the problems in the Tenderloin if it chose to. It thrives, instead, as a zone of lawless sovereignty in the heart of a major American city – the criminal version of the area commanded by Seattle anarchists in the so-called Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone, or CHAZ, in 2020. Where those extra-legal districts were eventually dismantled, the Tenderloin’s structure is entrenched. The following portrait of the Tenderloin crime syndicate is based on dozens of conversations with law enforcement officers, prosecutors, recovering street addicts, parents of addicts, and community activists over many months, as well as direct observation of the area. “Everyone knows what’s going on. The cops, mayor, and D.A.,” said Tom Wolf, a recovering addict. “Everyone knows it's organized and cartel-backed. They just don't think it's worth it to stop it, because nothing’s going to change anyway. They've surrendered.” Dealing in the Tenderloin: a low-risk business. KPIX CBS/YouTube The Dealers The drug pushers are easy to spot: Unlike the users, they look healthy and wear clean clothes. They’re almost universally young men, mostly Honduran (on the streets of San Francisco they’re called “Hondos”). You see them standing on street corners on every block in the Tenderloin selling pills out of prescription drug bottles and white and colored powders out of plastic sandwich bags – fentanyl, meth, heroin, cocaine. The dealers stand in packs of eight to ten on a corner, in their jeans and hoodies, with their stashes in their backpacks. According to both drug enforcement authorities and recovering addicts, each works for a different supplier and each supplier leads back to Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel. They compete for customers, but they also look out for each other: If someone tries to rob one of them, Wolf explained, they all jump in to defend him. Dealers have their assigned corners – like Turk and Hyde, across the street from a playground, or Golden Gate and Hyde, or United Nations Plaza. They mostly live in apartments on East Oakland’s International Boulevard, according to Ostly, and take the BART train to the Civic Center station each morning with the other commuters. Both civilians and police officers have observed them splitting up bindles of drugs and divvying up cash in plain view of commuters on the BART trains. During his tenure, Chesa Boudin resisted calls to prosecute these dealers, instead referring to them as victims of human trafficking. (Boudin, whose replacement is to be named by Mayor London Breed, did not respond to repeated requests for comment.) “There’s not a whole lot to support it,” Nancy Tung said of Boudin’s human trafficking claim. The dealers are usually smuggled into the United States by the cartel. When they arrive in San Francisco or another American city, they owe the cartel for getting them there – typically $10,000 to $15,000, which they can earn in a couple of weeks byselling the cartel’s drugs, both law enforcement and recovered addicts say. Once they repay the cartel, they’re free to do whatever they want. Usually, they stick with drug dealing, because no other job can make them that much money with so little risk. Dealers in the Tenderloin typically make about $1,000 a day for an eight- to 12-hour shift. Under Boudin, drug dealing was a low-risk business. Lou Barberini, a retired San Francisco police officer who worked narcotics in the 1990s and 2000s in the Tenderloin, said dealers used to shield drug deals with their hands or bodies as they sold them. Wolf, the recovering addict, said that before the pandemic, they would hold their drugs in baggies concealed in their mouths and spit them out when they made a sale.  “Now,” Barberini said, “they display what they have in their hand, and the person will select what they’re going to buy.” The worst consequence of being arrested is losing your stash, so for high volume transactions they might duck behind a car. That’s about the extent of the precautions they feel it necessary to take. Addicts: heat-seeking missiles when they need a fix, listless as nursed babies when they get it. AP  The Boosters The buyers, or addicts, are usually homeless and unsheltered, and, like the Bay Area, racially diverse. They’re often gaunt if they’re not obese, hunched over, in ill-fitting clothes draped across their limbs. They’re like a heat-seeking missile when looking for their next fix, and as listless as a nursed baby after they’ve found it. They would stand out in any other neighborhood, but in the Tenderloin it’s the non-users who are conspicuous, and the users who blend into the crowd. Finding drugs in the Tenderloin is about as hard as ordering a kebab from a food cart. On any corner, dealers holler out their inventory like hot dog vendors at a ballpark: “Green is fire! Shards! Chiva! Nickel!” (Translation: “The green pills or powder are great! I also have meth, heroin, and crack.”) Or “Fenty! Bars!” (As in: “Get your fentanyl! I got some Xanax!”)  The addicts often suffer from schizophrenia, depression, or bipolar disorder, which is often induced by meth. They are almost always unemployable. Cash flow is thus a daily concern.  Typically, they turn to professional shoplifting, known as “boosting.” Boosting is “basically a job” for addicts, said Lieutenant Kevin Domby of the California Highway Patrol. To fuel their addiction, boosters need to bring in up to $60 daily. Since they usually get a dollar or two per item, no matter the value of whatever they’re stealing, they have to steal as many as 60 items a day. There are roughly 6,000 homeless people in the Tenderloin and adjacent SoMa neighborhoods. (The last official, citywide count, in 2019, reported just over 8,000 homeless, and pretty much everyone says that figure has jumped in the past three years.) Tom Wolf estimated that about one in five of the homeless in the Tenderloin, or 1,200 people, are boosters. That means thousands, if not tens of thousands, of items are being stolen daily. “I still get letters from Target,” said Gina McDonald, a former addict and the mother of a Tenderloin user who’s now in rehabilitation. Her daughter started boosting years ago to feed her addiction, and her mom has been hearing from the retailers’ lawyers ever since. Like drug use and drug dealing, shoplifting has been effectively decriminalized in San Francisco, and some chains have reduced their presence in the city. California’s Proposition 47, passed in 2014, reduced shoplifting of less than $950 in goods from felonies to misdemeanors. On top of that reduction in severity, Boudin scaled back prosecution of these crimes. Together, Prop 47 and the DA’s non-enforcement policy have removed any incentive for police officers to make arrests for shoplifting, which, in turn, has made it far less likely that retailers will even call the police in the first place. For that reason, it’s difficult to estimate the actual scale of the problem. But you get a pretty good sense how normalized it has become. Today, in San Francisco, you can walk into a Walgreens, a Safeway, a Target or a CVS, take hundreds of dollars of products off the shelf in front of customers and employees, walk out the door, and then come back a few hours later and do it all over again. “We’ll see the same folks go into multiple retailers, multiple times a day,” said Ben Dugan of the Coalition of Law Enforcement and Retail. “The stores are their ATMs.” The Fences But stolen goods aren’t money, so the boosters take their goods to the fences. They’re often middle-aged Latino men or elderly Chinese men and women. Fences sometimes roam around the Tenderloin or United Nations Plaza looking for boosters, or they might work out of a nondescript storefront. Some sell the stolen goods out of their own stores in the Tenderloin or in Chinatown, while others source for larger wholesale fencing organizations that launder the goods through online retailers on Amazon, EBay, or Facebook Marketplace. Often, Domby says, fences will text the boosters on WhatsApp or Snapchat or on a private Instagram page and tell them what products they’re in the market for: Tide Pods or cold medicines with long expiration dates or makeup or razor blades. Then, the boosters fill those orders, stealing as much as they need to get their next fix. “Boosters will go into a pharmacy with a shopping list,” Dugan told me. The fences and the dealers work in a kind of synergy with each other – so much so that they sometimes collaborate directly. “The dealers will post up where the fences are,” Dugan said. “Fences will direct the thief to the drug dealers.” The fences, like the boosters they buy from, are the lowest rung on a towering totem pole. Most are middlemen. Some buy stuff not just from boosters but also from burglars and muggers. (In 2019, the San Francisco Police Department and then-District Attorney George Gascón retrieved more than $2 million in personal and commercial property from a couple that ran their fencing operation out of their Tenderloin camera repair shop.) Some fences sell the stolen goods directly to the public, laying boosted deodorant and frozen shrimp – so freshly stolen it hasn’t yet thawed – out on a blanket on the street in UN Plaza, or at the flea market in Berkeley. But more typically, they sell to a bigger fence, who can move a high volume of product out of the Tenderloin quickly and efficiently. Ostly compared street-level boosters and fences to street walkers in the prostitution business. A tier above the street addicts is a more specialized, entrepreneurial tier of boosters – the equivalent of escorts, per Ostly’s analogy.  Part of the cops' haul from a fencing operation out of a Tenderloin camera repair shop. Twitter The Larceny Industry There are at least two or three levels of fences above the street-level fences. At the top are the wholesale fences. They buy from the mid-tier fences who buy from the street-level fences who buy directly from the boosters, who use their paltry profits to buy drugs from the dealers. San Francisco’s addiction crisis provides the larceny industry with a permanent low-wage workforce. Drug addicts there and in other cities are, in effect, the exploited sweatshop workers of an international organized retail theft network that operates on an industrial scale. The fences at the wholesale level amass $100,000 to $200,000 worth of merchandise each day, which they sell to a “diverter.” The diverter repackages the stolen goods in counterfeit packaging and sells the products online. Nationally, just five diverters dominate the trade in stolen merchandise from the national drug store chains. Those five companies sell more than $20 million in product a year. Wholesale fences also sell their goods to fences overseas. Consumer electronics are often shipped to Vietnam or China to be sold in black markets there. Luxury accessories are sent to Russia. In 2020, a major multi-agency bust called Operation Proof of Purchase took down a $50 million fencing operation centered in the Tenderloin. When the police seized the warehouse in the North Bay, it took about 40 officers to photograph and box all the inventory, and numerous semi trucks and box trucks to move it all. Officers recovered more than $1.6 million in razor blades alone. The operation wasn’t just large, it was meticulous. “Just a terrifically organized operation for distribution,” said Lieutenant Domby, who assisted in the operation. “If a box was marked 400 boxes of pills for aspirin, there would be 400 boxes inside.” “The fences have better inventory control and logistics than the retailers they're stealing from,” Ostly said. Wolf told me that the way the organized retail theft business operates is “common knowledge” on the street. “Even the street addicts know how this works,” he said.  Whether Boudin is to blame now or not, the Tenderloin's problems are longstanding: sex worker, 2010. AP  'Nothing Has Been Done' Taken together, the dealers, boosters, and fences comprise a vast illicit industry that generates the cash that pays a Mexican drug cartel to import narcotics into San Francisco’s streets. Those drugs kill two people a day directly. The organized robberies and thefts they spawn create thousands more victims, from targets of muggings, burglaries, and home invasions to working class, elderly San Franciscans whose local pharmacies keep shutting down or reducing hours, to retail employees who are laid off as those stores are closed. Ostly, who was fired by Boudin the day after he took office, believes the rampant criminality in the Tenderloin is “ninety percent because of Boudin.” Tung, who ran unsuccessfully in 2019 against Boudin, said, “San Francisco has completely lost the deterrent effect of prosecution. You have to have some reason for people not to commit crime. People are weighing what’s going to happen, and in San Francisco, nothing is going to happen to you—not if you sell drugs, even if you mix them lethally, not if you break into cars, stores, homes.”  Randy Shaw, who runs the Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which operates many of the low-income, single-room occupancy hotels in the area, isn’t a fan of Boudin, but he says the city’s mayor and police department are largely responsible for the area’s problems. “Police have been blaming DAs since the 1980s; this is nothing new,” he said. “Chesa has done a great job taking the flack off the SFPD because all of the recall movement people want to make sure he’s blamed for everything,” he said before the June 7 recall vote. He said that after Mayor Breed invoked a “State of Emergency” in the Tenderloin last year (which has now lapsed), “there literally has been no increase in police at all. None. The crackdown she’s getting credit for in the national media has never happened. Nothing has been done.” Shaw wants to see the drug dealers arrested, prosecuted, and imprisoned. Breed’s office did not respond to multiple requests for comment. Joel Engardio of Stop Crime SF is also dismayed at what he sees as the human tragedy that city officials are allowing to unfold. “If you’re not going to arrest and prosecute the dealers, people are going to continue to die,” he said. “I don’t believe we should prosecute users. Users need help and treatment. But dealers are committing manslaughter every time they sell fentanyl.” Leighton Akira Woodhouse is a freelance reporter and documentary filmmaker. He writes at leightonwoodhouse.substack.com. Tyler Durden Sun, 06/19/2022 - 23:30.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 19th, 2022

Harlem mixed-use building, home to the Corner Social Bar & Restaurant, sells for $14.34M

JLL Capital Markets has announced the $14.336 million sale of 321 Lenox Ave., a six-story, mixed-use multi-housing and retail building that is home to the Corner Social Bar & Restaurant, one of the most popular watering holes in New York City’s Harlem neighborhood. JLL arranged the sale on behalf of... The post Harlem mixed-use building, home to the Corner Social Bar & Restaurant, sells for $14.34M appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. JLL Capital Markets has announced the $14.336 million sale of 321 Lenox Ave., a six-story, mixed-use multi-housing and retail building that is home to the Corner Social Bar & Restaurant, one of the most popular watering holes in New York City’s Harlem neighborhood. JLL arranged the sale on behalf of the seller, Delshah Capital LLC. The buyer was OSTB 321 Lenox Avenue, LLC. Originally built in 1910, 321 Lenox Ave., also known as 101 West 126 th St., features 32 residential unitsand one commercial unit. It is situated on the corner of Lenox Avenue and West 126 th Street within anOpportunity Zone. Following a substantial rehabilitation in 1986, all of the apartments were fullyderegulated and are currently on fair market leases. The property is steps from Harlem’s bustling West 125th Street corridor and the 2/3 express subwaystation in an area renowned for its culinary offerings and historic architecture. An influx of large-scaledevelopment has transformed the area into a 24/7 hub for residents, professionals and tourists alike. The JLL Capital Markets team that completed the transaction included Managing Directors Hall Osterand Paul Smadbeck; Vice Presidents Teddy Galligan and Conrad Martin; and Associate Braedon Gait. “The housing market surrounding 321 Lenox Ave. is positioned for a significant increase in demand asthe city continues its post pandemic recovery,” Oster said. “Interest will be driven by tenants seeking theconvenience the 2/3 express subway station and drawn by the energy of Harlem’s 125th Street and Lenox Avenue retail corridors.” “The adjacent retail corridors have proven their resilience throughout the pandemic, and an influx of new,post-pandemic retail tenancies, including both Target and Trader Joe’s, illustrates the high level ofconfidence that corporate retailers have in the area’s future as a thriving retail destination,” addedGalligan. JLL Capital Markets is a full-service global provider of capital solutions for real estate investors and occupiers. The firm’s in-depth local market and global investor knowledge delivers the best-in-classsolutions for clients — whether investment sales advisory, debt advisory, equity advisory or arecapitalization. The firm has more than 3,000 Capital Markets specialists worldwide with offices innearly 50 countries. For more news, videos and research resources on JLL, please visit our newsroom. The post Harlem mixed-use building, home to the Corner Social Bar & Restaurant, sells for $14.34M appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklyMay 18th, 2022

Park Tower Group’s Prestgious Plaza District Tower enjoys leasing successes as daily occupancy back near pre-pandemic levels

Park Tower Group, prominent real-estate developer and manager, announced it has secured a series of lease extensions totaling 39,315 square feet at 535 Madison, which brings the 37-story office tower to 100 percent occupancy. Park Tower Group also reports that daily headcounts at the Plaza District building have topped 94%... The post Park Tower Group’s Prestgious Plaza District Tower enjoys leasing successes as daily occupancy back near pre-pandemic levels appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. Park Tower Group, prominent real-estate developer and manager, announced it has secured a series of lease extensions totaling 39,315 square feet at 535 Madison, which brings the 37-story office tower to 100 percent occupancy. Park Tower Group also reports that daily headcounts at the Plaza District building have topped 94% percent. Park Tower Group’s agreements with Bain Capital NY LLC, FTV Management Company and Garda Capital Partners brings the 480,000 square-foot office tower to 100 percent leased, with just a single, 14,375-square-foot space across the 12th floor expected to become available in mid-2022. In addition to Park Tower Group’s leasing successes, 535 Madison regularly experiences more than twice the daily population percentages than the average for office buildings in the New York City metro region. Daily headcount at the tower first surpassed 50 percent in June 2021, when the regional average stood at 21 percent, according to Kastle Systems data. 535 Madison surpassed the 85 percent threshold for the first time on March 1, 2022 and has continued to remain above that level during the mid-weeks. That compares to 33 percent for the entire metropolitan area.   “With its inviting blend of collaborative spaces, modern technology, top-tier amenities, public art, and proximity to Grand Central, 535 Madison is a destination where people want to come to work,” said Marian Klein, President at Park Tower Group, whose headquarters are in the tower. “We have a tenant roster that understands the importance and benefits of bringing people together in a warm, welcoming environment.  As a result, the current energy and activity level at 535 Madison has largely returned to its historic level.” Through a unique partnership between Park Tower Group and Christie’s auction house 535 Madison is home to Christie’s Sculpture Garden – an exhibition space that showcases major artwork curated by Christie’s in the outdoor public plaza and indoor lobby. And during the pandemic, part of the plaza has also become home to Nerai, a haute Greek cuisine restaurant with indoor and outdoor seating that has become a popular gathering place for tenants in the building.     In 2017, Park Tower Group introduced a 6,000 square-foot amenity and fitness center for all of 535 Madison’s tenants. Thoughtfully laid out with modern furnishings, contemporary art and striking lighting features, it is a serene space intended as a convenient, healthy work-life balance. The fitness center is run by LivUnLtd and features premium equipment, including Life Fitness machines and Peloton bikes. Other amenities include zoom rooms and nap rooms/mothers’ rooms. And although the amenity center was popular pre-COVID, it is seeing an increase in users now. While many gyms still remained closed, Park Tower Group reopened the gym in the middle of the pandemic with thoughtful health and safety protocols. Defined by its pure sculptural form of glass and aluminum, 535 Madison is a signature work of art in the New York skyline. Located on the northeast corner of Madison Avenue and 54th Street, 535 Madison has been elegantly modernized by Deborah Berke of Deborah Berke Partners,  whose redesign of the grand entrance lobby and elevators blends seamlessly with Edward Larrabee Barnes’ original architecture. The Class A, boutique office property is situated close to a collection of high-end shopping, restaurants, hotels and entertainment, like The Polo Bar, The St. Regis New York and the Museum of Modern Art. The building is a short stroll to Central Park and six subway lines. A CBRE team of Brian Gell, Vice Chairman, and Laurence Briody, Executive Vice President, represented Park Tower Group in all three transactions. Additional details about each lease expansion follows: Bain Capital NY LLC signed a 14,765-square-foot, 11-year lease for the entire 30th floor. Bain doubles their space in the building, adding to its 14,765-square-foot space on the entire 29th floor. The investment firm was represented by Bryan Boisi and Connor Barnes of Cushman & Wakefield Boston. FTV Management Company, L.P. is expanding into 12,275-square-feet on the entire 33rd floor as part of a 13-year lease. FTV extended its 12,275-square-foot space on the entire 32nd floor by 8 years. The investment firm was represented by Howard Grufferman and Reid Longley of Colliers. Garda Capital Partners LP signed a 12,275-square-foot, 10-year lease the entire 34th floor, relocating and expanding from their previous space of 3,824 square foot space on part of the 21st floor. The asset management firm was represented by Brent Ozarowski and Kevin Sullivan of Newmark. The post Park Tower Group’s Prestgious Plaza District Tower enjoys leasing successes as daily occupancy back near pre-pandemic levels appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklyApr 18th, 2022

Futures Rebound From Two-Day Plunge As Yield And Oil Rise

Futures Rebound From Two-Day Plunge As Yield And Oil Rise U.S. index futures edged higher, along with European shares, after the sharpest two-day drop in almost a month, as investors digested Federal Reserve’s hawkish path and were jerked higher by a fleeting moment of Ukraine ceasefire hope when Emini futures initially spiked to session highs on the following Reuters headline: RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS UKRAINE PRESENTED A NEW DRAFT AGREEMENT TO RUSSIA ON WEDNESDAY - IFX ... only to reverse the entire move two minutes later when the following headline hit: LAVROV: UKRAINE PROPOSALS ON CRIMEA, DONBAS UNACCEPTABLE: IFX Mini hiccup aside, S&P futures were about 0.1% higher at 4,481 while Nasdaq futures gained 0.5% to 14,574, signaling an end to a selloff in the underlying index that erased $850 billion in market value over two days.  Ten-year Treasury yields were flat around 2.61%, the dollar extended its rally to a sixth day, the longest streak in almost 10 months, and oil rebounded from yestereday's IEA reserve release-driven plunge. Markets are showing signs of recovery after a selloff brought on by hawkish Fed minutes in which the central bank laid out a long-awaited plan to shrink their balance sheet by about $95BN per month or more than $1 trillion a year while raising interest rates “expeditiously” to counter the hottest inflation in four decades. “The FOMC minutes gave the clarity that every investors was looking for,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. “The US 2-10 year spread is back in the positive after having slipped below zero, but the recession threat is real, keeping the investor mood sour as the Fed pulls back support.” “The Fed delivered what most market watchers were looking for, with details around the pace and composition of the balance sheet runoff,” said Janus Henderson global bond PM Jason England. Along with recent hawkish comments from Fed officials, the minutes showed “the Fed has pivoted from a gradual approach to tightening monetary policy to now moving more rapidly toward a neutral stance,” he said. In premarket trading, HP shares were up 13% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought an 11% stake worth $4.2 billion in the laptop maker valued at more than $4.2 billion. SoFi shares declined 5.1% in premarket after the fintech firm gave new guidance as the U.S. government extended the pause on student-loan payments. Other notable premarket overs include: Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI US) gains 5.5% in premarket trading after it said revenue during the most recent quarter increased 22% to $1.6 billion. Wells Fargo said comments about a strong first quarter and good momentum in March should help dispel investor concerns, at least in the near term. Wayfair (W US) falls 4.4% in premarket trading after Wells Fargo downgrades to underweight from equal weight in sector note turning more cautious on housing-impacted retailers. SoFi (SOFI US) drops 5.1% in premarket trading as Morgan Stanley cuts its 2022 Ebitda estimate by $42m to $100m after the fintech firm gave new guidance as the U.S. government extended the pause on student-loan payments. Sprinklr’s fourth- quarter results were a positive, though the most impressive point was the software company’s guidance, Barclays analysts led by Raimo Lenschow write in a note. The shares rose 4.7% in postmarket trading on Wednesday. Vapotherm (VAPO US) falls 23% in premarket trading after the respiratory-device company reported preliminary quarterly revenue that fell short of analysts’ estimates and withdrew its annual guidance. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 added 0.7%, boosted by a rally in shares of Atlantia SpA, the billionaire Benettons’ highway and airport group. Atlantia added 10% in Italian trading after a non-binding bid from Global Infrastructure Partners and Brookfield Asset Management Inc. European healthcare and chemical stocks outperformed, while energy and miners declined. IBEX outperformed, adding 1.5%, FTSE 100 lags, dropping 0.1%. Health care, chemicals and travel are the strongest performing sectors. The energy sector was in the red, dragging the U.K.’s benchmark FTSE 100 down, as Shell’s $4-$5BN hit from its withdrawal from Russia weighed on oil producers. The statement from the London-based giant shows that, despite a surge in oil and gas prices, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended the supermajors’ plans and left them scrambling to adapt to historic shifts in energy markets. Here are the most notable European premarket movers: Atlantia shares rise as much as 12%, extending yesterday’s gains, after a Bloomberg report that the motorway and airport company could become the target of a bidding war. Electrolux advances as much as 5.8% after announcing a positive non- recurring item of $70.5m in 1Q. Euronav shares gain as much as 12% on news of a potential stock-for-stock combination with Frontline to create a tanker company with a market capitalization of more than $4.2b. Daetwyler shares jump as much as 6% after it announced the acquisition of U.S. electrical connector seals company QSR, with Baader saying the deal may benefit earnings from day one. 888 shares surge as much as 31% after the gambling company announced a share placement to pay for its now-cheaper acquisition of William Hill’s international assets, with analysts reacting positively. Verbio shares surge to a record high after Hauck & Aufhauser lifts its PT on the biodiesel manufacturer by almost 33% ahead of what the broker expects to be “another outstanding quarter.” European basic resources and energy shares decline, lagging all other sectors, as commodity prices start to pull back, with Anglo American, Rio Tinto and Glencore all posting declines. PageGroup and other staffing companies fall after Jefferies lowers EPS estimates across the sector and takes a “more risk-off approach” in note, downgrading PageGroup in the process. Countryside shares sank as the home developer forecast a decline in profit after conducting a review of its business following a dispute with an activist investor. TI Fluid Systems falls as much as 12% after Jefferies downgraded the automotive parts maker to hold from buy, saying conditions faced by the company are among the most difficult in its coverage. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slid to a three-week low as traders feared a rapid rise in U.S. interest rates and aggressive scale-back of the Federal Reserve’s bond holdings could stymie growth and hurt earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost as much as 1.4% on Thursday, with tech shares leading the losses in many countries, after minutes of the Fed’s March meeting showed plans to shrink its balance sheet by more than $1 trillion a year. The fall came after the Asian benchmark slumped 1.5% on Wednesday following similarly hawkish comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard. Worries that hawkish policy tightening by the Fed may cool the world’s largest economy or even tip it into a recession are hitting equities broadly across Asia. Stocks in China also buckled, even as the state council renewed its pledge to use monetary policy tools at an “appropriate time” and consider other measures to boost consumption, according to the readout from a meeting of the State Council chaired by Premier Li Keqiang on Wednesday. “The Fed is telling us that the party is over. It is saying it will take away the punch bowl,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo. “This will have a serious impact on all risk assets.” Fujito saw tech shares with rich valuations as the most vulnerable, adding that investors will be trying to seek shelter in utilities and defensive stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Information Technology Index fell about 2%.  Benchmarks in Japan and South Korea underperformed other Asian peers, while gauges in Australia and India posted smaller declines on Thursday.   For April, the MSCI Asia is now down more than 2% on top of a slump of almost 7% last quarter -- the most since the first three months of 2020 -- amid concern about the war in Ukraine, higher rates and inflation.  Japanese equities fell by the most in almost four weeks, deepening declines in tandem with U.S. peers amid concerns over the Federal Reserve’s plans to tighten monetary policy. Electronics makers and service providers were the biggest drags the Topix, which dropped 1.6%, in its third day of decline. Tokyo Electron and Fast Retailing were the largest contributors to a 1.7% loss in the Nikkei 225.  Minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting showed the U.S. central bank is prepared to raise rates sharply and reduce its balance sheet to cool the economy. Indian stocks dropped with peers across Asia as the weekly expiry of derivative contracts weighed on the market.  The S&P BSE Sensex slipped for a third session, dropping 1% to 59,034.95, its biggest fall since March 21. The NSE Nifty 50 Index slipped 0.9%. HDFC Bank retreated 2.2%, while Reliance Industries declined 1.8%. Seventeen of 30 shares on the Sensex traded lower.  Fifteen of 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a gauge of oil & gas stocks. The Fed’s plan to prune its near $9 trillion balance sheet, which was swollen by pandemic-era bond purchases, points to more volatility in global markets. Locally, the nation’s central bank will likely raise its inflation outlook to reflect costlier oil while leaving borrowing costs steady in its policy decision on Friday. “U.S. Fed’s hawkish stance has raised concerns of steeper interest rate hikes going ahead,” Kotak Securities analyst Shrikant Chouhan said. He sees volatility in global crude oil prices leading to profit taking in Reliance Industries and other energy stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.6% to close at 7,442.80, retreating alongside global peers after the Federal Reserve outlined plans to trim its balance sheet by more than $1 trillion a year while raising interest rates. Life360 was the biggest laggard as tech stocks dropped. Magellan Financial was the top performer after its funds under management update showed a slowdown in net outflows. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index was little changed at 12,075.91 In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index is near flat, handing back earlier gains that saw it at a three-week high. RUB leads gains in EMFX. In rates, the treasuries curve extends steepening counter-trend as front-end and belly yields retreat further from Wednesday’s YTD highs while long-end cheapens slightly. Yields richer by up to 3bp across front-end of the curve, steepening 2s10s by ~3bp with 10-year little changed near 2.60%; bunds and gilts keep pace. Bund, Treasury and gilt curves all bull steepen. Meanwhile commodity markets continue to be whipsawed by disruptions sparked by Russia’s war in Ukraine and efforts to curb raw-material costs. WTI crude climbed toward $98 a barrel, paring a slump that was triggered by the International Energy Agency’s decision to deploy 60 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. WTI added 1.4% to trade near $98. Brent rises 1.5% to over $102. Most base metals trade in the red; LME nickel falls 2.3%, underperforming peers. Spot gold is little changed at $1,926/oz. Raw materials could surge by as much 40% -- taking them far into record territory -- should investors boost their allocation to commodities at a time of rising inflation, according to JPMorgan. In crypto, bitcoin is pressured and towards the low-end of a range that continues to drift from the USD 45k mark. Meta (FB) is exploring a virtual currency for the metaverse, according to the FT. U.S. economic data slate includes initial jobless claims (8:30am) and February consumer credit (3pm). Fed speakers scheduled include Bullard (9am) and Bostic (2pm). U.S. session highlights include speech and Q&A by St. Louis Fed’s Bullard --who dissented from March FOMC decision in favor of a bigger rate increase -- at 9am ET.  Other central bank speakers include Bostic and Evans, as well as the BoE’s Pill. We’ll also get the minutes from the ECB’s March meeting, along with remarks from the Fed’s Bullard, Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,476.75 MXAP down 1.4% to 176.33 MXAPJ down 1.4% to 584.33 Nikkei down 1.7% to 26,888.57 Topix down 1.6% to 1,892.90 Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 21,808.98 Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 3,236.70 Sensex down 0.7% to 59,191.33 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 7,442.83 Kospi down 1.4% to 2,695.86 Brent Futures little changed at $101.14/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,928.10 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 99.69     Top Overnight News from Bloomberg ECB President Christine Lagarde said she tested positive for Covid-19, adding that her symptoms are “reasonably mild” and that there won’t be any impact on the operations of her institution Surging U.S. real yields suggest bond traders believe the Federal Reserve can get a grip on inflation, but are likely to put further pressure on stocks and precious metals German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said the nation has already cut its reliance on Russian coal by at least half in the past month and won’t stand in the way of a European Union ban on imports of the fuel from the country In the days after the Ukraine war began, the ruble’s collapse was a potent symbol of Russia’s newfound financial isolation. Now, the ruble has surged all the way back to where it was before Putin invaded Ukraine Hungary kept its effective key interest rate unchanged at the highest level in the European Union after the forint plunged on the bloc’s announcement that it is triggering a process that may block the country’s aid funds China signaled it will step up monetary stimulus for the economy, acknowledging that domestic and global risks are now bigger than previously expected Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi says it’s vital to continue with monetary easing as it will take some time before the possibility of shrinking stimulus comes into sight. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded lower throughout most of the session as the downbeat mood reverberated from Wall Street. ASX 200 was dragged lower by its tech sector following a similar sectoral performance in the West. Nikkei 225 was hit by losses across its energy, mining and manufacturing names. KOSPI conformed to the global losses whilst Samsung Electronics (-0.3%) failed to benefit from better-thanexpected prelim earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy and initially swung between gains and losses before stabilising in the red. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) - Prelim Q1 (KRW) Revenue 77tln (exp. 75.7tln), Operating Profit 14.1tln (exp. 13.3tln), via Reuters Top Asian News Suspected Chinese Hackers Collect Intel From India’s Grid SoftBank Tripled Share Buybacks to $1 Billion in March Thailand Mulls Easing Covid Test Rules for Overseas Visitors Japan to Release 15m Barrels From Oil Reserves: Kyodo European bourses are firmer across the board and back in proximity to post-cash open levels after initial strength waned in choppy price action, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%. US futures have been relatively in-fitting with European peers, though the NQ, +0.5%, is the modest outperformer as yields take a breather from their recent surge. China's Shanghai City is to cap the load factor of international flights by foreign airlines at 40% (prev. 75%), according to Reuters sources; effective from April 11th until month-end. Top European News Turkey Transfers Khashoggi Case to Saudi Arabia to Improve Ties Shunned Oil Piling Up Off China as Virus Outbreak Worsens EU Full Ban on Russia Coal to Be Delayed Until Mid-August: Rtrs Yellen Says U.S. Would Use Sanctions If China Invaded Taiwan FX: Greenback sets marginal new YTD best after hawkish FOMC minutes reveal tight call between 25 bp and 50 bp lift-off plus large cap balance sheet reduction, DXY up to 99.823, thus far. Albeit, the DXY has waned from best levels and turns flat ahead of the arrival of US participants as yields continue to pare Euro eyeing option expiries for support ahead of ECB minutes following loss of 1.0900 handle vs Dollar; EUR/USD down below Fib at 1.0895. Aussie unwinds more RBA inspired upside as trade surplus narrows on zero export balance; AUD/USD around 0.7475 vs circa 0.7661 only yesterday. Yen benefits from retreat in yields rather than BoJ rhetoric reaffirming ultra easy policy and merits of a weaker currency, USD/JPY capped below 124.00. Commodities: Crude benchmarks consolidate near WTD lows after reserve release pressure; specifically, near lows of USD 95.43/bbl and USD 100.13/bbl for WTI and Brent. Updates elsewhere have been slim, and focused on China's Shanghai City from a demand-side perspective amidst ongoing Ukraine-Russia developments; albeit, nothing fundamentally new in terms of negotiations. China is to strictly control new production capacity in the oil refining industry, according to the industry ministry Gas flows via Yamal-Europe pipeline resume westward, according to Gascade data. Spot gold/silver are contained and the yellow metal is once again capped by USD 1930/oz and LME Copper has failed to benefit from the equity pickup. US Event Calendar 08:30: April Initial Jobless Claims, est. 200,000, prior 202,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.3m, prior 1.31m 15:00: Feb. Consumer Credit, est. $18.1b, prior $6.84b Central Bank Speakers 09:00: Fed’s Bullard Discusses the Economy and Monetary Policy 14:00: Fed’s Bostic and Evans Discuss Inclusive Employment 16:05: cancelled: Fed’s Williams Makes Closing Remarks DB's Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap We might be less than a week into Q2, but based on how markets are performing it’s shaping up to be very similar to Q1 thus far, with yesterday seeing another bond selloff and significant declines for global equities as markets gear up for the fastest monetary tightening we’ve seen in decades. Indeed, it seems to be progressively dawning on investors that this cycle of hikes is going to be very different to the one we saw from 2015, when even at its fastest in 2018, the Fed still only hiked rates by 100bps in a single year. As Jim has written, if we could erase the post-GFC cycle from people’s memory banks, there’s a case that markets would be pricing 300-400bps this year given where inflation is right now, not least given we saw hikes on that scale in the late-80s and from 1994 with inflation at much lower levels than it is at the minute. Given the rapid expected tightening (as well as the negative shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), it’s worth noting that DB Research’s new World Outlook came out on Tuesday, (link here), where we downgraded our global growth forecasts and are now forecasting a US recession by the end of next year as our baseline. We also got a look into the Fed’s outlook yesterday with the release of the March FOMC minutes, where it looks like they would have hiked by 50bps in March were it not for the Russian invasion, and they are ready to entertain 50bps hikes going forward. The markets got the message, and upgraded the probability of a 50bp hike at the next meeting in early May to 85%. The other big takeaway from the minutes were details around QT, which they signalled would start in May, in line with recent Fed speakers. The FOMC noted the balance sheet would rundown at a pace of $60bn Treasuries and $35bn MBS a month once QT hits terminal velocity, which should be by July if the minutes are to be believed. Markets digested the news, with Treasury yields more or less in line with their pre-minute levels into the close after declining modestly in the New York afternoon. With the pace of the runoff now set, the focus will turn to who buys the securities with the Fed stepping away and when the Fed has to stop QT. Alongside the minutes, remarks from a number of officials yesterday helped to reiterate the point that policy will become tighter this year. Philadelphia Fed President Harker said that he expected “a series of deliberate, methodical hikes as the year continues”, whilst on the question of whether to move by 50bps, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that the FOMC “could certainly do that again if it is necessary to prevent inflation expectations from unanchoring”. With all said and done, sovereign bond yields moved up to fresh highs on both sides of the Atlantic, with those on 10yr Treasuries up +5.1bps to 2.598%, which was its highest closing level since 2019, albeit some way beneath its intraday high of 2.656% shortly before noon in London, and this morning they have fallen a further -1.5bps to 2.583%. That increase yesterday was entirely driven by a rise in real yields, which rose +7.3bps to -0.24%, their highest level since March 2020, whilst a rally at the short end of the curve meant the 2s10s slope steepened for a 3rd day running, heading up to 12.2bps by the close. Those declines in shorter-dated yields came as futures actually took out a bit of Fed tightening from 2022, modestly reducing the expected number of additional hikes this year from 220bps in the previous session to 217bps by the close. Over in Europe there were similar moves, with sovereign bond yields reaching fresh highs before paring back some of that increase towards the close. Yields on 10yr bunds (+3.3bps), OATs (+3.1bps) and BTPs (+3.8ps) all closed at multi-year records, although a key difference with US Treasuries were that the rise in European yields yesterday were driven by higher inflation expectations rather than real rates. In fact the 10yr German breakeven hit 2.81%, its highest in the data series that starts back in 2009, whilst the Italian 10yr breakeven hit 2.63%, its highest since 2008. As on Tuesday, the selloff in bonds went hand in hand with further declines in equities, and by the close the S&P 500 (-0.97%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-1.53%) had both lost ground as well, with cyclical sectors leading the declines. Tech stocks in particular were an underperformer once again, and the NASDAQ (-2.22%) and the FANG+ index (-3.46%) both struggled again, bringing their declines over the last 2 sessions to -4.43% and -6.63% respectively. Amidst the equity declines, the VIX index of volatility rose +1.1pts yesterday to 22.1pts, taking it up to its highest level in 2 weeks. Overnight in Asia, equities have very much followed that retreat on Wall Street as monetary tightening remained in focus. Among the main indices, the Nikkei (-2.00%) is leading the moves lower, whilst the Kospi (-1.42%), Hang Seng (-1.04%), Shanghai Composite (-0.99%), and the CSI (-0.78%) are also trading in negative territory. Separately, we heard from China’s State Council yesterday that they would use monetary policy at an “appropriate time”, as they acknowledged downward pressures on the economy. Looking forward, stock futures in the US are pointing to further declines today, with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.37%) and Nasdaq 100 (-0.33%) both lower following those Fed minutes. In terms of the latest on Ukraine, the EU continued to edge towards a fresh sanctions package, although that wasn’t finalised yesterday as had initially been suggested, with Reuters reporting that technical issues needed to be addressed like whether the ban on Russian coal would affect existing contracts. The report said that diplomats were optimistic about achieving a compromise today, so we could potentially see some news on that later, whilst in his speech to the European Parliament yesterday, European Council President Charles Michel also said that “I believe that measures on oil and even on gas will also be needed sooner or later.” Otherwise on sanctions, the US imposed further measures, including full blocking sanctions on Sberbank and Alfa Bank, along with a prohibition on new investment in Russia. The various decisions came amidst a further decline in oil prices yesterday, with Brent crude down -5.22% to $101.07/bbl, its lowest closing level in 3 weeks. That was supported by confirmation that the International Energy Agency would release 60m barrels of crude, on top of the Biden Administration’s release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Brent has recovered somewhat this morning however, up +1.85% to $102.94/bbl. Turning to the French presidential election, we’re now just 3 days away from the first round on Sunday, and the polls have continued to tighten between President Macron and his main challenger Marine Le Pen. Yesterday’s polls for the second round runoff put Macron ahead of Le Pen by 54%-46% (Ipsos), 53-47% (Opinionway), and 52.5%-47.5% (Ifop), which are all much tighter than the 66%-34% margin in the 2017 election. French assets have continued to underperform against this backdrop, with the CAC 40 equity index (-2.21%) seeing a weaker performance than the broader STOXX 600 (-1.53%) for a 6th consecutive session. On yesterday’s data, the Euro Area PPI reading for February came in at a year-on-year rate of +31.4% (vs. 31.6% expected), which is the fastest pace since the formation of the single currency. Separately, German factory orders contracted by a larger than expected -2.2% in February (vs. -0.3% expected). To the day ahead now, and data releases include German industrial production and Euro Area retail sales for February, along with the weekly initial jobless claims from the US. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the ECB’s March meeting, along with remarks from the Fed’s Bullard, Bostic and Evans, as well as the BoE’s Pill. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/07/2022 - 07:49.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeApr 7th, 2022

Sales Launch for 393 West End Avenue, a Historic Building Reimagined by CetraRuddy on Manhattan’s Upper West Side

Manhattan’s Upper West Side reached a pivotal residential milestone today with the announcement that sales have commenced for the homes at 393 West End Avenue, a storied building that has been tastefully transformed for the modern era. Located at the corner of 79th Street, 393 West End Avenue features a... The post Sales Launch for 393 West End Avenue, a Historic Building Reimagined by CetraRuddy on Manhattan’s Upper West Side appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. Manhattan’s Upper West Side reached a pivotal residential milestone today with the announcement that sales have commenced for the homes at 393 West End Avenue, a storied building that has been tastefully transformed for the modern era. Located at the corner of 79th Street, 393 West End Avenue features a collection of 75 upscale residences that merge old-world charm with contemporary comforts, and a series of garden-level amenities reminiscent of a private social club, signifying what is likely the last condominium conversion to come to market in the neighborhood.   Situated within the landmark West End Collegiate Historic District — a quiet enclave that exudes the cinematic charm of iconic New York films such as When Harry Met Sally and You’ve Got Mail — the 16-story building was originally designed by architects Goldner & Goldner and constructed in 1927. The building features Collegiate Gothic architecture and original 1920s details that are now being skillfully preserved by CetraRuddy, the award-winning architecture and interior design firm known for its sophisticated approach to modernizing historic properties. “The Upper West Side — the West End Collegiate Historic District, in particular — is one of Manhattan’s most coveted residential destinations,” said Stephen Kliegerman, President of Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing (BHSDM), the exclusive sales and marketing firm for 393 West End Avenue. “Due to the neighborhood’s landmark status, newly constructed luxury residential developments are exceedingly rare. Without compromising on character, 393 West End Avenue offers the best of both worlds — impeccably preserved Pre-war details that convey a sense of history, paired with the modern layouts, high-end finishes and thoughtful amenities that buyers demand of new developments today.” Making an impression at first sight, 393 West End Avenue features a restored limestone portal with a contemporary bronze-and-glass marquee, antique bronze entry doors with one-of-a-kind lion medallions that showcase its 1920s heritage, and eye-catching plaster tassels that harken back to the great opera houses of the era. Inside, the 24-hour attended lobby, a sculptural stone concierge desk anchors the space, which features Bianco Spino and Grigio Collemandina mosaic floors, lacquered paneling and a soaring nickel leaf ceiling. Custom bronze-and-glass art screens inspired by the building’s historic architectural details lead to the elevator bank that ascends to the residential floors.   Here, a collection of 75 residences — many with captivating views of the Hudson River — respect the provenance of the late 1920s, with graceful layouts ranging from one to four bedrooms, and details that include wood floors with a French Chevron style in the living and dining areas. The open plan kitchens boast Naica Quartzite countertops and backsplashes, along with custom cabinetry composed of handpicked variegated smoked oak wood in a walnut tone and fluted glass. A suite of paneled Miele appliances echoes the cabinetry, while the stove’s brushed light antique bronze hood rounds out the warm, modern look.  “From the beginning, the design vision for 393 West End Avenue has been to create a unique and elevated residential experience that celebrates historic sensibility while introducing a modern vernacular,” said Nancy J. Ruddy, Founding Principal of CetraRuddy. “It’s an attitude of refined constraint, and a contemporary revival of romantic styles that brings a bit of magic back to this special part of the Upper West Side. Whether the bespoke mosaic floor in the lobby, or the custom club room mural and hand-picked marble in the kitchens and bathrooms, every element that you see and touch is crafted and curated with a focus on material richness, balanced proportions, and an eye towards creating a sense of home and wellbeing that fits how we live today. Engaging creatively and respectfully with historic buildings is part of our DNA at CetraRuddy, and 393 West End Avenue is truly an expression of everything we love about the juxtaposition between past and present.”  Envisioned by CetraRuddy as a light-filled private retreat, the primary bedrooms convey a sense of warmth through tone-on-tone natural materials and restored tray ceilings. Reminiscent of Parisian dressing rooms, the primary baths offer a striking combination of honed Pacific White Marble walls and mosaic floors; Calacatta Black Marble accents and vanity countertops; and custom white lacquer vanities with polished nickel accents and textile drawer fronts — all complemented by bespoke sconces. Secondary baths include Calacatta Gold Marble mosaic floors in a diamond pattern characteristic of the 1920s and polished nickel trim. Powder rooms feature a Breccia Capraia Marble slab accent wall that is unique to each residence. Taking inspiration from private homes, 393 West End Avenue features a series of garden-level amenities that seamlessly flow from one room to the next and accommodate every stage of life. Offering the privacy of an in-house club and spanning 4,000 square feet, these inviting spaces include a Great Room equipped with banquettes and private nooks for study or remote work, as well as direct access to a serene landscaped courtyard. Ideal for private dining or hosting intimate gatherings, the Club Room features a custom artisanal tile mosaic, a plush nine-foot sofa and a fully-equipped bar. There is also a state-of-the-art fitness center with private movement studio, a junior lounge with a gaming station and hangout space, and an enchanted forest-inspired children’s playroom known as “The Cottage,” which opens onto its own dedicated outdoor space — aka the porch and secret garden. Bicycle storage and a laundry room with extra-capacity washers and dryers are also available. 393 West End Avenue is being redeveloped by Rabina, a New York-based real estate investment and development firm that has been family-owned and operated for three generations. While Rabina has acquired and developed more than 25 million square feet of real estate throughout its 60+ year history, the firm’s early years were dedicated to repositioning residential properties on Manhattan’s Upper West Side. With its carefully considered transformation of 393 West End Avenue into a collection of Pre-war homes with a fresh perspective, Rabina has returned to its roots. Nestled among tree-lined blocks dotted with picturesque cafes and parks teeming with greenery, 393 West End Avenue offers a premier location just one block from Riverside Park and the Hudson River in the West End Collegiate Historic District. This coveted enclave represents 60 years of architectural evolution and features many of the Upper West Side’s most acclaimed row houses and apartment buildings.   Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing is the exclusive sales and marketing firm for 393 West End Avenue. Sales are being led by Louise Phillips of The Louise Phillips Forbes Team, who has launched and managed successful campaigns for many of the neighborhood’s most esteemed residential conversions including 498 West End Avenue, 220 West 93rd Street and 905 West End Avenue. Pricing for initial inventory begins at $3.718 million for a three-bedroom residence. To learn more about current availability or to schedule a tour of the building’s on-site design studio, please call the sales office at (212) 319-4393 or visit www.393westend.com  The post Sales Launch for 393 West End Avenue, a Historic Building Reimagined by CetraRuddy on Manhattan’s Upper West Side appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklyApr 6th, 2022

Tesla’s Free Cash Flow Is Still Resoundingly Negative

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended March 31, 2022, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). We remain short the biggest bubble in modern stock market history, Tesla Inc. (TSLA) which, despite a steadily sliding share of the world’s EV market and a share of the overall auto market that’s only around 1.5%, […] Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended March 31, 2022, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). We remain short the biggest bubble in modern stock market history, Tesla Inc. (TSLA) which, despite a steadily sliding share of the world’s EV market and a share of the overall auto market that’s only around 1.5%, Trevor Scott points out has a market cap roughly equal to the next 20 largest automakers combined: if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more So here’s why we remain short Tesla: Tesla has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of its electric car technology (which has now been surpassed by numerous competitors), while existing automakers—unlike Tesla­—have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably. Excluding working capital benefits and sunsetting emission credit sales Tesla generates negative free cash flow. Growth in sequential unit demand for Tesla’s cars is at a crawl relative to expectations. Elon Musk is a pathological liar who under the terms of his SEC settlement cannot deny having committed securities fraud. Tesla’s Q1 Deliveries Tesla’s Q1 2022 delivery number (to be reported in early April) will likely only be slightly better than Q4 2022’s 308,000, perhaps a 20,000 (or fewer) unit gain that would be a rounding error for an auto company trading at even one-tenth of Tesla’s valuation. If in any quarter GM or VW or Toyota sold 2.02 million vehicles instead of 2 million or 1.98 million, no one would pay the slightest bit of attention to the difference. Seeing as Tesla is still being valued at over seventeen GMs, it’s time to start looking at its relatively tiny numerical sequential sales growth, rather than Wall Street’s sell-side hype of “percentage off a small base.” In other words, if you want to be valued at a giant multiple of “the big boys,” you should be treated as a big boy. And yes, Tesla is somewhat capacity constrained, but so are all its competitors. Let’s see how quickly “constraint” morphs into “excess capacity” when the German and Texas factories are fully online! Meanwhile in January Tesla reported results for Q4 2021 and once again proved that it’s a truly horrible business. Although the company claimed to have generated $2.8 billion in free cash flow for the quarter, that was almost entirely created by massively increased payables & accrued liabilities, and by stock-based compensation. After adjusting for those factors (and a tiny increase in receivables), Tesla’s free cash flow was just $119 million, and that undoubtedly included several hundred million dollars of previously earned & billed emission credit sales, a revenue stream which will almost entirely disappear next year as other automakers begin selling enough electric cars of their own. Thus, despite all the sell-side and media hype, on a sustainable basis Tesla’s free cash flow is still resoundingly negative. An Energy Company And for those of you who think that Tesla is “really an energy company,” in Q4 “Tesla Energy” had revenue of $688 million (down 8.5% year-over-year and 8% sequentially) and cost of revenue of $739 million, meaning it had a negative gross margin. So if Tesla is “really an energy company,” it’s even more screwed than if it’s just a car company! Meanwhile, perhaps the biggest reason Tesla has recently been able to post marginally increasing sequential quarterly deliveries is because competitors’ production is at the lowest level in decades due to the massive chip shortage, thereby eliminating a number of “Tesla alternatives.” Yet Tesla is enjoying record production because Musk (a notorious “corner-cutter”) is apparently willing to either substitute untested, non-auto-grade chips for the more durable chips he can’t get (please see my Twitter post about this) or simply eliminate entire crucial safety systems such as back-up steering and crash-avoidance radar. Meanwhile, many Tesla bulls sincerely believe that ten years from now the company will be twice the size of Volkswagen or Toyota, thereby selling around 20 million cars a year (up from the current run-rate of around 1.3 million); in fact in March Musk himself even raised this as a possibility. To illustrate how utterly absurd this is, going from 1.3 million cars a year today to 20 million in ten years means that in addition to one million cars a year of eventual production from the new German and Texas factories, Tesla would have to add 35 more brand new 500,000 car/year factories with sold out production; i.e., a new factory nearly every single quarter for ten years! And what then? Well, then you’d have a car company approximately twice the size of Toyota (current market cap: $249 billion) or Volkswagen (current market cap: $110 billion). If that would make Tesla worth, say, $500 billion in 10 years, discounting that back at 15%/year and allowing for enough share dilution to pay for all those factories, Tesla—in that absurdly optimistic scenario—would be worth just $100/share today, down almost 93% from its current price. Another favorite hype story from Tesla bulls has been “the China market.” But based on the Chinese domestic (non-export) sales numbers we have for January and February it appears that Q1 2022 sales there barely grew (or may have even contracted)  from Q4 2021’s. And in Q4 Tesla had only around 1.5% of the overall Chinese passenger vehicle market and just 11% of the BEV market. Meanwhile,  as Tesla continues to sell its fraudulent & dangerous so-called “Full Self Driving” the head of that program just took a four-month sabbatical; the last major Tesla executive who did that (Doug Field) never returned. In a sane regulatory environment Tesla, having sold this garbage software for over five years now… …would be prosecuted for “consumer fraud,” and indeed the regulatory tide may finally be turning, as two U.S. senators continue to question its safety and in October the NHTSA appointed a harsh critic of this deadly product to advise on its regulation. (For all known Tesla deaths see here.) Are major write-downs and refunds on the way, killing the company’s slight “claimed profitability”? Stay tuned! Meanwhile, Guidehouse Insights continues to rate Tesla dead last among autonomous competitors: Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market some time in 2024 (as is now expected), even if Tesla makes some of its own,  other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone. Build Quality Meanwhile, Tesla build quality remains awful (it ranks second-to-last in the latest Consumer Reports reliability survey) while the latest survey from British consumer organization Which? found it to be one of the least reliable cars in existence. And Tesla’s worst-rated Model Y faces current (or imminent) competition from the much better built electric Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Volkswagen ID.4, Ford Mustang Mach E, Nissan Ariya, Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, the great new BMW i4 and the premium version of Volkswagen’s ID.3 (in Europe), plus multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Audi e-tron (substantially improved for 2022!) and Porsche Taycan outsell the Models S & X (and the newly updated Tesla models with their dated exteriors and idiotic shifters & steering wheels won’t change this), while the spectacular new Mercedes EQS, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make the Tesla Model S look like a fast Yugo, while the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX does the same to the Model X. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as it will enter a dogfight of a market; in fact, Ford’s terrific 2022 all-electric F-150 Lightning now has over 200,000 retail reservations (plus many more fleet reservations), GM has introduced its fantastic 2023 electric Silverado with over 110,000 reservations and Rivian’s pick-up has gotten excellent early reviews. Regarding safety, as noted earlier in this letter, Tesla continues to deceptively sell its hugely dangerous so-called “Autopilot” system, which Consumer Reports has completely eviscerated; God only knows how many more people this monstrosity unleashed on public roads will kill despite the NTSB condemning it. Elsewhere in safety, the Chinese government forced the recall of tens of thousands of Teslas for a dangerous suspension defect the company spent years trying to cover up, and now Tesla has been hit by a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. for the same defect. Tesla also knowingly sold cars that it knew were a fire hazard and did the same with solar systems, and after initially refusing to do so voluntarily, it was forced to recall a dangerously defective touchscreen. In other words, when it comes to the safety of customers and innocent bystanders, Tesla is truly one of the most vile companies on Earth. Meanwhile the massive number of lawsuits of all types against the company continues to escalate. So here is Tesla’s competition in cars... (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo Porsche Macan Electric SUV Officially Coming in 2023 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen unveils ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz electric van Volkswagen ID Vizzion confirmed - answer to the Tesla Model 3 VW’s Cupra brand counts on performance for Born EV Cupra, VW brand to get entry-level battery-powered cars Volkswagen unveils $7.1B commitment to boost product line-up, R&D, mfg in N. America Audi e-tron Audi e-tron Sportback Audi E-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron confirmed for 2022 launch 2022 Audi A6 e-tron set to take on Tesla Audi will expand EV lineup with electric A6 wagon Audi TT to be axed in 2023 for 'emotional', electric replacement Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Will Be a Slick-Looking EV Sedan Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS: the first electric vehicle in the luxury class 2023 Mercedes-Benz EQS SUV Interior Unveiled With Up To Seven Seats Mercedes-Benz unveils EQE electric sedan with impressive 400-mile range Mercedes EQE SUV to rival BMW iX and Tesla Model X Mercedes EQC electric SUV available now in Europe & China Mercedes-Benz Launches the EQV, its First Fully-Electric Passenger Van Mercedes-Benz EQB Makes Its European Debut, US Sales Confirmed Mercedes-Benz unveils EQA electric SUV with 265 miles of range and ~$46,000 price Ford Mustang Mach-E Available Now Ford F-150 Lightning electric pick-up available 2022 Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford’s Lincoln brand to launch full slate of electric SUVs by 2026 Volvo Polestar 2 Polestar 3 will hit U.S. market in Q1 2023 Volvo XC40 Recharge Volvo C40 electric sedan to challenge Tesla Model 3, VW ID3 Polestar 3 will be an electric SUV that shares its all-new platform with next Volvo XC90 Chevrolet Bolt sedan, 259-mile range starting at $31,000 Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq Available Spring 2022 GMC 2022 ALL-ELECTRIC SUPERTRUCK HUMMER EV GM’s 2023 electric Silverado pickup truck GMC to launch electric Hummer SUV in 2023 GM announces electric versions of the 2023 Chevy Equinox & Blazer SUVs starting @ $30,000 GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services BMW leads off EV offensive with iX3 BMW expands EV offerings with iX tech flagship and i4 sedan BMW i7 EV, with 600 hp, will be most powerful variant of new 7 Series flagship 2022 BMW iX1 electric SUV spied Renault-Nissan alliance plows $26B into EV blitz- will jointly launch 35 new EVs Nissan vows to hop back on EV podium with Ariya Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now Nissan Unveils $18 Billion Electric-Vehicle Strategy Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises 'heart-of-the-market SUV' from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Chrysler to go all-EV by 2028 Alfa Romeo's First Electric Car Will Arrive in 2024 Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Rivian R1T Is the Most Remarkable Pickup We’ve Ever Driven Maserati going fully electric by 2030 -all vehicles will offer a BEV version by 2025 Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota’s Electric bZ4X Goes On Sale in Spring 2022 Toyota will have lineup of 30 full EVs by 2030; Lexus will be all-electric brand Honda and Sony to build, sell EVs by 2025 Opel sees electric Corsa as key EV entry 2021 Vauxhall Mokka revealed as EV with sharp looks, massive changes Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV offers range of power, battery sizes Electric Skoda Enyaq coupe to muscle-in on Tesla Model 3 Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals Nio to launch in five more European countries after Norway BYD will launch electric SUV in Europe The Lucid Air Achieves an Estimated EPA Range of 517 Miles on a Single Charge Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 All-electric Rolls-Royce Spectre to launch in 2023 – firm to be EV-only by 2030 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Meet the Canoo, a Subscription-Only EV Pod Coming in 2021 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Former Saab factory gets new life building solar-powered Sono Sion electric cars Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And in China… How VW Group plans to dominate China's EV market VW Goes Head-to-Head With Tesla in China With New ID.4 Crozz Electric SUV Volkswagen’s ID.3 EV to be produced by JVs with SAIC, FAW in 2021 2022 VW ID.6 Revealed With Room For Seven And Two Electric Motors China-built Audi e-tron rolls off production line in Changchun Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai Audi will build Q4 e-tron in China Audi Q5 e-tron Confirmed For China Audi in cooperation company for local electric car production with FAW FAW Hongqi starts selling electric SUV with 400km range for $32,000 FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025 BYD goes after market left open by Tesla with four cheaper models for budget-conscious buyers BYD said to launch premium NEV brand ‘Dolphin’ in 2022 Top of Form Bottom of Form Daimler & BYD launch DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market Geely announces premium EV brand Zeekr Geely, Mercedes-Benz launch $780 million JV to make electric smart-branded cars Mercedes styled Denza X 7-seat electric SUV to hit market Mercedes ‘makes mark’ with China-built EQC BMW, Great Wall to build new China plant for electric cars BAIC Goes Electric, & Establishes Itself as a Force in China’s New Energy Vehicle Future BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Ford MUSTANG MACH-E ROLLS OFF ASSEMBLY LINE IN CHINA FOR LOCAL CUSTOMERS Lexus to launch EV in China taking on VW and Tesla GAC Aion about to start volume production of 1,000-km range AION LX GAC Toyota to ramp up annual capacity by 400,000 NEVs GAC kicks off delivery of HYCAN 007 all-electric SUV Nio – Ready For Tomorrow Nio steps up plans for mass-market brand to compete with VW, Toyota Xpeng Motors sells multiple EV models SAIC-GM to build Ultium EV platform in Wuhan Chevrolet Menlo Electric Vehicle Launched in China Buick Introduces New VELITE 6 EV with Extended Range Buick Velite 7 EV And Velite 6 PHEV Launch In China Dongfeng launches the all-electric Voyah  PSA to accelerate rollout of electrified vehicles in China SAIC, Alibaba-backed EV brand IM begins presale of first model L7 Hyundai Motor Transforming Chongqing Factory into Electric Vehicle Plant Polestar said to plan China showroom expansion to compete with Tesla Jaguar Land Rover's Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production Renault reveals series urban e-SUV K-ZE for China Renault & Brilliance detail electric van lineup for China Renault forms China electric vehicle venture with JMCG Honda plans China EV plant to expand lineup GAC Honda launches pure electric car brand ‘e:NP’ Geely launches new electric car brand 'Geometry' – will launch 10 EVs by 2025 Geely, Foxconn form partnership to build cars for other automakers Fiat Chrysler, Foxconn Team Up for Electric Vehicles Baidu to create an intelligent EV company with automaker Geely Leapmotor starts presale of C11 electric SUV on Jan. 1 2021 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weltmeister Chery Seres Enovate China's cute Ora R1 electric hatch offers a huge range for less than US$9,000 Singulato JAC Motors releases new product planning, including many NEVs Seat to make purely electric cars with JAC VW in China Iconiq Motors Hozon Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia CHJ Automotive begins to accept orders of Leading Ideal ONE Infiniti to launch Chinese-built EV in 2022 Human Horizons Chinese smartphone giant Xiaomi to launch electric car business with $10 billion investment Lifan Technology to roll out three EV models with swappable batteries in 2021 Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving… Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Fiat Chrysler, Waymo expand self-driving partnership for passenger, delivery vehicles Waymo and Lyft partner to scale self-driving robotaxi service in Phoenix Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car Renault, Nissan partner with Waymo for self-driving vehicles Geely’s Zeekr, Waymo partner on autonomous ride-hailing vehicle for the U.S. market Volvo, Waymo partner to build self-driving vehicles Volvo Cars’ unsupervised autonomous driving feature Ride Pilot to debut in California Cruise and GM Team Up with Microsoft to Commercialize Self-Driving Vehicles Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle Honda launching Level 3 autonomous cars Volkswagen moves ahead with Autonomous Driving R&D for Mobility as a Service VW, Bosch partner to develop autonomous driving systems Volkswagen teams up with Microsoft to accelerate the development of automated driving VW taps Baidu's Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China Ford “Blue Cruise” ARGO AI AND FORD TO LAUNCH SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES ON LYFT NETWORK Hyundai and Kia Invest in Aurora Toyota, Denso form robotaxi partnership with Aurora Aptiv and Hyundai Motor Group complete formation of autonomous driving joint venture Amazon’s Zoox unveils electric robotaxi that can travel up to 75 mph Nvidia and Mercedes Team Up to Make Next-Gen Vehicles Daimler's heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way SoftBank, Toyota's self-driving car venture adds Mazda, Suzuki, Subaru Corp, Isuzu Daihatsu  Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars Mobileye and Geely to Offer Most Robust Driver Assistance Features Mobileye Starts Testing Self-Driving Vehicles in Germany Mobileye and NIO Partner to Bring Level 4 Autonomous Vehicles to Consumers Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Nissan gives Japan version of Infiniti Q50 hands-free highway driving Hyundai to start autonomous ride-sharing service in Calif. Pony.ai Receives Approval for Paid Autonomous Robotaxi Services in Beijing Baidu Apollo’s autonomous driving service is now inclusive to all the megacities in China Toyota to join Baidu's open-source self-driving platform Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions Volvo will provide cars for Didi's self-driving test fleet BMW and Tencent to develop self-driving car technology together BMW, NavInfo bolster partnership in HD map service for autonomous cars in China GM Invests $300 M in Momenta to deliver self-driving technologies in China FAW Hongqi readies electric SUV offering Level 4 autonomous driving Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture Huawei teams up with BAIC BJEV, Changan, GAC to co-launch self-driving car brands GAC Aion, DiDi Autonomous Driving to co-develop driverless NEV model BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars Xpeng releases autonomous features for highway driving Nuro Becomes First Driverless Car Delivery Service in California Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks ZF autonomous EV venture names first customer Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4 Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public Mitsubishi Electric to Exhibit Autonomous-driving Technologies in New xAUTO Test Vehicle Apple acquires self-driving startup Drive.ai Motional to begin robotaxi testing with Hyundai Ioniq 5 in Los Angeles JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving Great Wall’s autonomous driving arm Haomo.ai receives investment from Meituan Plus.ai, Iveco to start L4 autonomous heavy-duty truck test in Europe, China T3 Mobility, IDRIVERPLUS to pilot Robotaxi operation in Suzhou with autonomous+manual model Here’s where Tesla’s competition will get its battery cells… Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe How GM's Ultium Battery Will Help It Commit to an Electric Future GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems Ford, SK Innovation announce EV battery joint venture BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Toyota to build plant in N.C. capable of making up to 1.2M batteries a year Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner UK companies AMTE Power and Britishvolt plan $4.9 billion investment in battery plants Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries Morrow Here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks… Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America EVgo Chargepoint Ionity Europe Shell Plans To Deploy Around 500,000 Charging Points Globally By 2025 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM to distribute up to 10 chargers to each of its dealerships starting early 2022 Circle K Owner Plans Electric-Car Charging Push in U.S., Canada 191 U.S. Porsche dealers are installing 350kw chargers ChargePoint to equip Daimler dealers with electric car chargers Ford introduces 12,000 station charging network, teams with Amazon on home installation Petro-Canada Introduces Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta is rolling out a free charging network E.ON and Virta launch one of the largest intelligent EV charging networks in Europe Volkswagen plans 36,000 charging points for electric cars throughout Europe Smatric has over 400 charging points in Austria Allego has hundreds of chargers in Europe PodPoint UK charging stations BP Will Invest £1 Billion In UK Charging Infrastructure Instavolt is rolling out a UK charging network Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe Aral To Install Over 100 Ultra-Fast Chargers In Germany Deutsche Telekom launches installation of charging network for e-cars Total to build 1,000 high-powered charging points at 300 European service-stations NIO teams up with China’s State Grid to build battery charging, swapping stations BYD, Shell to build joint venture for EV charging network development in China Volkswagen-based CAMS launches supercharging stations in China Volkswagen, FAW Group, JAC Motors, Star Charge formally announce new EV charging JV BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales BP, Didi Jump on Electric-Vehicle Charging Bandwagon Evie rolls out ultrafast charging network in Australia Evie Networks To Install 42 Ultra-Fast Charging Sites In Australia And here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries… Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Kyocera Generac Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Kreisel Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS UET electrIQ Power Stem ENGIE Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bluestorage Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Moixa Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor Flexgen SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium C4V Thanks, Mark Spiegel Updated on Apr 1, 2022, 11:00 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkApr 1st, 2022

Futures, Yields Rise On Ceasefire Hopes As Ukraine-Russia Talks Resume

Futures, Yields Rise On Ceasefire Hopes As Ukraine-Russia Talks Resume Following yesterday's surge in stocks following an FT report that Russia has eased on its Ukraine demands and the Russian ceasefire document no longer contains any discussion of three of Russia’s initial core demands - “denazification”, “demilitarisation”, and legal protection for the Russian language in Ukraine - overnight futures have extended their "feel good" rise as peace negotiations which resumed on Tuesday in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine stoked a rally in global equities, and hit session highs after Ukrainian negotiator Podoliak noted that a ceasefire is being discussed with Russia adding a press conference is to be expected later. Ukraine is striving for a cease-fire agreement in talks with Russian negotiators that started Tuesday in Turkey, setting a “minimum” goal of an improvement in the humanitarian situation. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.6% while S&P 500 futures gained 0.5% and Dow futures 0.4%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index also advanced, with auto and consumer stocks outperforming. Oil fluctuated as investors weighed the impact of China’s mobility curbs against a Covid resurgence on demand; the dollar dropped. Treasuries bear flattened, outperforming bunds and gilts as haven demand continues to be unwound; the 10Y TSY yield rose to 2.50%. Apple headed higher in premarket trading and was set for its longest winning streak since 2003, in which the iPhone maker has added about $407 billion in market capitalization. A revival in the so-called meme stock rally also set GameStop on course for its 11th straight day of gains as retail traders bid up OTM calls sparking yet another gamma squeeze and proving that the market remains hopelessly broken. Here are some other notable premarket mvoers: Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) shares drop 7.2% after the dining and entertainment venue operator reported earnings per share for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. While analysts pointed to the impact of the Omicron variant of the Covid-19 virus on the company’s fourth-quarter, they saw reassuring signs in the firm’s margins and recent improvements. Progenity (PROG US) falls 20% in U.S. premarket trading after the firm late on Monday reported a wider annual loss for 2021 than expected. Small biotech and pharma companies rally in U.S. premarket trading, rebounding from this year’s declines, as investor appetite for riskier assets and so-called meme stocks grows. Brooklyn Immunotherapeutics (BTX US) +8.7%, Alaunos Therapeutics (TCRT US) +6.5%. CVS Health (CVS US) shares drop 1.7% in U.S. premarket trading after Deutsche Bank downgrades the pharmacy health care provider to hold from buy amid rising risks. U.S. stocks have rebounded in March as the Federal Reserve issued an upbeat outlook on economic growth, with investors also looking past surging inflation and a historic rout in Treasuries. Paradoxically, technology-heavy stocks, which tend to sell off when interest rates are rising, have in fact outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 as traders focused instead on differentiating between profitable and unprofitable firms.  Even more paradoxically as a new cold war rages, the Nasdaq 100 is on track for its biggest monthly gain since October 2021. "The resilience of global stocks given the cocktail of risks facing the global economy is truly impressive, but this stoicism is likely to face continuing tests as the impact of mounting prices and the actions of central banks continue to feed through, not to mention the ongoing geopolitical concerns,” Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell Ltd., said in emailed comments. Meanwhile, government bond yields rose, with bets on aggressive U.S. monetary tightening hurting shorter maturity Treasuries. Inversions along the curve, where some short-term rates exceed longer tenor yields, point to concerns about a looming economic downturn as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates to quell high inflation. Hopes of a cease-fire in Ukraine-Russia talks also bolstered European equities. The Stoxx 600 jumped 1.3%, with automakers, consumer products and services and technology shares leading gains. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Carlsberg shares advance as much as 4.5% as analysts welcomed the brewer’s decision to exit Russia, with Credit Suisse seeing potential for a re-rating for a stock battered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Adyen shares gain as much as 6% after JPMorgan said the company could boost its outlook for long-term margin to more than 70% from 65%, placing the firm on “positive catalyst watch.” Currys Plc shares rise as much as 12% following a so-called uncooked mention in a Betaville blog post regarding potential takeover interest in the electrical goods retailer. Euromoney shares climb as much as 4.9% after Investec raises its recommendation to buy from hold, citing a disconnect between the share price and the media firm’s operational performance. Schibsted shares rise as much as 6.6%, the most since March 16, after its largest shareholder, Blommenholm Industrier, buys 1 million Class A shares at NOK222.5 each. Nordex shares rise as much as 8.3% after the wind-turbine maker’s new FY22 guidance is ahead of expectations, Jefferies says; wind power peers Vestas and Orsted gain, too. Barclays falls as much as 5.7% in London following news that an unnamed investor sold about 575m shares at a discount. Stock is also downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan. Maersk, Kuehne + Nagel and Hapag-Lloyd all drop after Deutsche Bank downgrades several logistics and container stocks due to the indirect consequences of the war in Ukraine. Sanofi shares fall as much as 2.5% after the firm provided a new sales forecast for its drug Dupixent, with both Morgan Stanley and Citi noting guidance is slightly behind expectations. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced after a three-day loss, as a decline in oil prices eased concerns over corporate earnings and Chinese tech stocks extended gains into a second day. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7% with Tencent, Toyota Motor, and Alibaba among the biggest contributors to the advance. Apart from Hong Kong, where gains in tech and health names drove gauges higher, equities in Japan and Australia outperformed, with the former benefiting from a weaker yen and the latter rising ahead of a budget release after markets closed. Investors are waiting to see how the cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine proceed, while assessing the repercussions to businesses from the lockdown in Shanghai. The risk of Chinese firms, especially those in the property sector, facing trading halts is weighing on sentiment as a key earnings deadline looms.  Oil Extends Losses on China Demand Concerns Ahead of OPEC+ Meet “A V-shaped recovery in stock markets looks difficult,” said Kim Kyung Hwan, a strategist at Hana Financial Investment in Seoul.  “The worst is behind in terms of investor sentiment, but issues like Covid lockdowns and the war in Ukraine aren’t resolved, traders are just getting used to them.” Despite Tuesday’s gain, the benchmark Asian measure is poised for a third straight monthly loss. It’s also lagging behind the S&P 500 index in recent performance Japanese equities rose, powered by exporters after the yen plunged by the most since March 2020 against the U.S. dollar on the Bank of Japan’s easing measures. Electronics and auto makers were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which rose 0.9%. Fast Retailing and SoftBank Group were the largest contributors to a 1.1% gain in the Nikkei 225. The yen was slightly higher after weakening 1.5% against the greenback on Monday. “Makers of export-related products like automobiles should rise with the BOJ’s continuous bond-purchase operations expected to continue weakening the yen,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, a strategist at Nomura Asset Management. The drop in oil prices is a “relief” for Japan as an importer, and growth stocks should benefit from the slowing rise in long-term U.S. interest rates, he added Indian stocks rose as a drop in crude prices along with prospects of more cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine supported buying sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex climbed 0.6% to 57,943.65, in Mumbai, a second day of gains, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index also advanced by a similar magnitude. Housing Development Finance Corp. advanced 3.1% and was the biggest boost to the Sensex, which had 20 of the 30 shares trading higher.   Fifteen of 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. rose, led by a gauge of healthcare stocks. Price of Brent crude, a major import for India, hovered around $113 a barrel, down about 6% this week.  Lower oil is supporting gains across economies as a lockdown in parts of China after a resurgence in Covid cases raised possibilities of lower demand, Mitul Shah, head of research at Reliance Securities, wrote in a note. “The Russia-Ukraine conflict and inflationary pressures continue to keep the market wavered,” he said.    In rates, Treasuries extended bear-flattening move with yields cheaper by ~5bp across front-end of the curve, following wider losses for bunds and gilts in early European session. U.S. 10-year yields around 2.49%, higher by ~3bp on the day with bunds and gilts trading cheaper by 6bp and 4bp in the sector; Treasury curve-flattening persists with 2s10s spread tighter by 4.5bp as front-end continues to underperform. The week's auction cycle concludes with $47b 7-year note sale at 1pm ET, following Monday double supply of 2- and 5-year notes; WI 7-year around 2.60% is above auction stops since 2019 and ~69.5bp cheaper than February’s stop-out. IG dollar issuance slate includes two 3Y SOFR deals; two deals priced $4b Monday, and early calls for April are for around $100b of issuance. In Europe, fixed income trades heavy in the risk-on environment. Bund and Treasury curves bear-flatten with U.S. 5s30s remaining inverted and 2s10s flattening a further ~5bps near 7bps. Germany’s 2y yield trades ~3bps shy of a 0% yield. Gilts bear-steepen, cheapening 7-8bps across the back end. Peripheral spreads tighten modestly. In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot drops 0.3%, CHF is the weakest in G-10 sending EUR/CHF 0.6% higher on to a 1.03-handle. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index hovered as the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers; Scandinavian currencies were the best performers while the Swiss franc and the pound were the worst. The yen inched up after posting is biggest drop in over a year Monday; the currency may be heading for its worst monthly performance versus the dollar since November 2016, yet trading in the options space is much more balanced. Super-long Japanese government bonds dropped while benchmark 10-year notes were supported by the central bank’s purchase operations; The Bank of Japan offered to buy an unlimited amount of 5- to 10-year government notes for a second time on Tuesday Cable gave up an early advance to fall to an almost two-week low; gilts fell. London’s Metropolitan Police are set to issue at least 20 fines to government officials close to the prime minister who broke U.K. lockdown rules, although this tranche of fines is unlikely to touch Prime Minister Boris Johnson Australia’s three-year bonds dropped after retail sales beat economists’ estimates, with the gap over 10-year notes narrowing to the least since March 2020 In commodities, crude futures hold in the green, recouping Asia’s weakness. WTI regains a $106-handle, Brent trades near $113. Spot gold extends losses, dropping ~$13 before stalling near $1,910/oz. Base metals trade poorly with LME nickel underperforming Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the FHFA house price index for January, the Case-Shiller home price index for January, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for March, and the JOLTS job openings for February. Over in Europe there’s also French consumer confidence for March, Germany’s GfK consumer confidence reading for April and UK mortgage approvals for February. Lastly, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Harker. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 4,590.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 459.14 MXAP up 0.7% to 179.73 MXAPJ up 0.6% to 586.67 Nikkei up 1.1% to 28,252.42 Topix up 0.9% to 1,991.66 Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 21,927.63 Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,203.94 Sensex up 0.2% to 57,724.92 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,464.26 Kospi up 0.4% to 2,741.07 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.63% Euro little changed at $1.0995 Brent Futures up 1.3% to $113.95/bbl Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,916.02 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 99.04 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said the U.S. and its allies will tighten the sanction screws on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, singling out industries integral to Moscow’s war effort As NATO allies discuss the terms of any potential peace deal to be struck between Russia and Ukraine, signs of strategic splits are emerging from within their ranks Policymakers in Japan on Tuesday sought to balance a commitment to ultra-loose monetary policy in a world of rising interest rates without letting the yen tumble further toward a 20-year low Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki highlighted the need to check if a weaker yen is harming the economy, as he indicated heightened government concern over the currency’s recent slide The additional increase in energy prices resulting from the war in Ukraine pushed inflation significantly higher in March, European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez De Cos says Key OPEC members said oil prices would be even more volatile if not for the group’s strategy and that the U.S. must trust what it’s doing, as calls from major importers for higher production grow Russia has made a $102 million interest payment as the world’s biggest energy exporter continues to service its foreign bonds despite financial isolation after the invasion of Ukraine North Korea looks set to detonate its first nuclear bomb in more than four years, as the U.S.’s sanctions disputes with Russia and China make further United Nations penalties against the country unlikely More detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia Pac stocks traded mostly higher following the gains in the US where growth stocks spearheaded a recovery and with a decline in oil prices conducive for risk. ASX 200 was led by strength in tech and consumer stocks heading into the Budget announcement. Nikkei 225 gained with Japan to compile economic measures by the end of next month. Hang Seng and traded mixed with the mainland index faltering amid the ongoing lockdown inShanghai Comp. Shanghai and despite the announcement of supportive measures by the local government. Top Asian News Australia’s Budget Pitches Cash to Key Voters Ahead of Election Samsung to Offer More Credit in India to Boost Smartphone Sales Modern Land Joins List of Earnings Delays: Evergrande Update Iron Ore Edges Lower in China as Virus Controls Dent Demand European bourses, Euro Stoxx 50 +2.2%, are firmer across the board in a continuation of the APAC/US handover as Russian-Ukraine talks begin. Upside that has been exacerbated by remarks from both Ukraine and Russian officials. US futures are firmer across the board, ES +0.4%, though magnitudes more contained with Fed speak and supply ahead Top European News U.K. Consumer Credit Surges at Strongest Pace in Five Years U.K. Faces Crypto Exodus as Firms Sound Off Before FCA Deadline European Banks Could Earn $6.6 Billion a Year Greening Economy Inflation Rose Sharply in March on Energy Shock: ECB’s de Cos Commodities: Crude benchmarks have experienced an erosion of earlier upside amid multiple, but generally constructive, updates from Ukraine and Russia. Specifically, Ukrainian negotiator Podoliak noted that a ceasefire is being discussed with Russia adding a press conference is to be expected later. Albeit, the morning's action has not been sufficient to spark a test of the overnight parameters for WTI and Brent. Spot are pressured once more, generally speaking in-fitting with other havens, exacerbated by thegold/silver aforementioned risk-on move. In FX, Euro elevated as EGB yields ramp up again and hopes rise regarding a Russia-Ukraine peace resolution, EUR /USD above 1.1000 and a series of decent option expiries stretching between 1.0950 and the round number. Buck caught amidst buoyant risk sentiment and hawkish Fed vibe, DXY sub-99.000 after narrowly missing test of 2022 peak on Monday. Yen maintains recovery momentum amidst more MoF verbal intervention and demand for month/fy end, USD /JPY under 124.00 vs 125.00+ peak yesterday. Franc flounders as SNB ponders direct repo indexing to main policy rate, USD/CHF around 0.9360 and EUR /CHF over 1.0300. US Event Calendar 09:00: Jan. S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. 1.50%, prior 1.46% 09:00: Jan. FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 1.2%, prior 1.2% 10:00: March Conf. Board Present Situation, prior 145.1 10:00: March Conf. Board Expectations, prior 87.5 10:00: Feb. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 11m, prior 11.3m 10:00: March Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 107.0, prior 110.5 Central Bank Speakers 09:00: Fed’s Williams Makes Opening Remarks at Bank Culture... 10:45: Fed’s Harker Discusses Economic Outlook 21:30: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Economic Leadership DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A mixed medical report from the Reid family today. I have a nerve root block injection and a diagnostic test on my back tomorrow to battle my sciatica. I managed to stretch for an hour before attempting to play golf on Saturday thinking there was no hope. Miraculously it must have helped me get round but I then suffered for the rest of the weekend as I seized up as soon as I stopped. I told my wife I should have just carried on playing. She despaired at me. On the more positive side my 6-yr old Maisie had her latest 3-4 month scan yesterday. Regular readers will remember she's been in a wheelchair since November after an operation to help her battle a rare hip disorder called Perthes. There are no guarantees as to the long-term outcome with Perthes but the latest scan was encouraging and suggested that while her hip ball is fragmenting (disintegrating), it's not collapsing and getting out of shape largely due to no weight bearing. That suggests a decent chance that when it regrows (assuming it does) it will regrow relatively normally. The nightmare is if the hip ball gets squashed as it disintegrates. She'll still need to keep the weight off for most of the rest of the year but there's hope that by the end of it she can come out of her wheelchair and start the rehab towards a manageable hip. There are some horror stories with this disease in terms of pain and constant discomfort through the entirety of childhood so fingers crossed it's going in the right direction due to her discipline in spite of missing out on all the running about that she's desperate to do. Also helping is that she continues to swim 3-4 times a week and is remarkably good now. This has been the one blessing that's come out of a year and a half where we tried to get her problem diagnosed and then treated. Fingers crossed that the next scan in July will continue to move her in the right direction. Bond markets continued to be as volatile as my back yesterday with big swings in yields but with the front end sell-off being durable. This helped push a number of yield curves ever closer to inversion, meaning we have multiple recessionary signals starting or continuing to flash. The one we always look most closely at is the 2s10s curve, which has inverted prior to every one of the last 10 US recessions. Yesterday this flattened by -7.3bps to 12.5bps and this morning it’s currently just above 6bps with more flattening plus a new on the run 2yr note to blame. Could we invert today? Regardless it's likely to happen soon. A key factor behind this curve flattening has been monetary policy expectations, and over the last 24 hours we’ve seen investors continue to ratchet up their bets on how much tightening we’re likely to see this year. By the close yesterday, Fed Funds futures were pricing in a further 211bps of tightening by the end of 2022, on top of the 25bps a couple of weeks back, which if realised would be the largest move tighter in a calendar year since 1994, back when the Fed raised the target range for the Federal Funds by 250bps. On top of that, it’s clear that investors are also reappraising what the terminal rate is likely to be, and at one point yesterday investors were pricing in a move above 3% by the second half of 2023. We’re not talking much about the terminal rate at the moment, but as we move deeper into the hiking cycle, that’s likely to grab increasing attention, since the destination will have big implications for a wide variety of financial assets. Whilst the all-important 2s10s curve is still (just about) in positive territory, increasing numbers of curves have been inverting across different maturities, with the 3s30s curve becoming the latest to do so around the time we went to press yesterday, eventually closing down -10.4bps at -2.9bps. Similarly, the 3s10s that had already inverted went even deeper into inversion territory to close at -11.5bps, which is the most inverted it's been since 2006. The 5s30s was another to invert yesterday, falling as low as -7.1bps at one point before it steepened to close at -0.9bps. Clearly they are all a bit flatter this morning. If you’re interested in reading more on the yield curve, DB’s US economics team put out a piece last Friday (link here) looking at the value of these various measures for predicting recessions. The Fed have played down the usefulness of the 2s10s curve, and have argued that the Fed forward spread (18-month forward, 3-month yield minus the spot 3-month yield) is more valuable when it comes to explaining recessions risks over the next 12 months. But our economists find that traditional curve slope metrics like the 2s10s provide useful information over a longer horizon, like the next 2 years, and they point out that the 2s10s slope is consistent with a probability greater than 60% of a recession at some point over the next 2 years. Even with the latest round of flattening though, the truth is that the trend has been nearly all one-way for basically a year now. In fact, it was a year ago tomorrow that the slope of the 2s10s curve saw its intraday peak for this cycle, when it hit 162bps. Yesterday’s flattening also coincided with a healthy dose of Treasury volatility. 2yr yields ultimately wound up +5.8bps higher at 2.33%, after trading as much as +13.8bps higher during London trading. 10yr yields fell -1.5bps to 2.46%, but were as much as +8.0bps higher during London trading, and -6.1bps lower during the New York morning. This pushed the MOVE index of Treasury volatility +4.0pts higher to 129.3, just below levels realised in early March. In spite of all the volatility, equities were mostly positive yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.71%) staging a steady second half rally to start another week off in the green. The decline in longer-dated yields from their early London peak helped spur tech outperformance, with the NASDAQ gaining +1.31%. Europe also started the week on the front foot, with the STOXX 600 (+0.14%) advancing, alongside the DAX (+0.78%) and the CAC 40 (+0.54%). There were pockets of relative weakness however, with the small-cap Russell 2000 in the US closing flat. Energy stocks were left behind in the otherwise broad rally on both sides of the Atlantic given the large decline in oil discussed below, with the S&P 500 energy sector down -2.56% and the STOXX 600 energy sector down -2.10%. Indeed, Oil prices did fall back yesterday, with Brent crude down -6.77% to $112.48/bbl, but that reflected the lockdown in Shanghai and the prospect of a further release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve rather than more positive developments out of Ukraine. It's down another -0.8% this morning. On the other hand European natural gas (+1.26%) rose to €102.55/MWh, which occurred as German Economy minister Habeck said that the G7 had rejected the proposal from President Putin that natural gas contracts be paid in Rubles, with Habeck saying it was a “one-sided and clear breach of contracts”. Back to sovereign bonds, and there were some major moves in European sovereign bonds as well as the US yesterday, with yields on 10yr bunds moving to a fresh high above 0.6% after the open before modestly retreating -0.6bps to 0.58%. That pattern was common across core European sovereigns, with yields on 10yr gilts (-7.9bps) and OATs (-1.2bps) eventually also moving lower following their increases that morning. Similarly to the US, this has come as investor conviction has grown about the chances of tighter ECB policy in the coming months, with 48bps of hikes priced by year-end. Nevertheless, there’s still a wide policy divergence between the Fed’s and the ECB’s trajectory, and we saw this in the widening spread between 2yr US and Germany yields, which closed at 246.1bps yesterday, the most since September 2019. Asian equity markets are trading higher outside of China this morning with the Nikkei (+0.60%), Hang Seng (+0.40%) and Kospi (+0.31%) up. Stocks in mainland China are wavering with the Shanghai Composite (-0.44%) and CSI (-0.11%) both trading in negative territory as I type. Meanwhile, contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.04%) are fractionally higher while Nasdaq futures are down -0.11%. Early morning data showed that Japan’s industrial output rebounded +0.5% m/m in February after January’s contraction of -0.8%. Separately, Japan’s jobless rate inched down to 2.7% in February from 2.8% in January while the jobs-to-applicants ratio improved to 1.21 in February from 1.20 in the prior month. Elsewhere, Australia reported retail sales for February, advancing +1.8% m/m and beating market expectations for a +0.9% gain. It followed a downwardly revised +1.6% m/m increase in January. The Japanese Yen weakened to its lowest level against the US Dollar since 2015, depreciating -1.48% to 123.86 per dollar, and at one point surpassing 125 per dollar. It's moved nearly 8% in four weeks - a substantial move historically. The latest move came as the Bank of Japan announced they would purchase 10yr JGBs in unlimited quantities over three sessions today, tomorrow and the day after, which followed their move above 0.25% at one point, which we haven’t seen since 2016. The Yen is trading at 123.31 as we go to press so a continued reversal from the close and the lows yesterday morning. Elsewhere today, there’s set to be another round of in-person talks taking place in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine as the war continues into its second month. Investors have grasped at positive headlines in recent weeks and more sensitive assets such as energy prices have reacted accordingly, but the reality has been few signs of concrete progress towards any ceasefire, even if there has been a moderation in some of the demands from either side as to any potential settlement. Finally on Europe, we’re now just 12 days away from the first round of the French presidential election, and there are signs the race is tightening up slightly as the official campaign period began yesterday. Politico’s polling average puts President Macron in the lead still, but his 1st round polling has dipped to 28%, having been at 30% a couple of weeks earlier following the bounce he saw after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Behind him is Marine Le Pen on 19%, who he also faced in the second round back in 2017, and her average is up from 18% a couple of weeks earlier. The far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon is also gaining, now in 3rd place with 14% (up from 12% a couple of weeks ago), but he’s still 5 points behind Le Pen, and only the top 2 candidates go through to the run-off two weeks later. Behind them are also the far-right Eric Zemmour (11%), as well as the conservative Valérie Pécresse (11%). To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the FHFA house price index for January, the Case-Shiller home price index for January, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for March, and the JOLTS job openings for February. Over in Europe there’s also French consumer confidence for March, Germany’s GfK consumer confidence reading for April and UK mortgage approvals for February. Lastly, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Harker. Tyler Durden Tue, 03/29/2022 - 07:51.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeMar 29th, 2022

Stunning NEW Penthouse at The Historic Wales Lists for $23 Million

Today the full-floor 4,179 SF Penthouse at The Wales officially came to market. It has five bedrooms, five full baths, and two striking powder rooms. Located at the former historic Wales Hotel, the Penthouse is brand new construction above a historic structure. Curious if you would consider running this news online?... The post Stunning NEW Penthouse at The Historic Wales Lists for $23 Million appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. Today the full-floor 4,179 SF Penthouse at The Wales officially came to market. It has five bedrooms, five full baths, and two striking powder rooms. Located at the former historic Wales Hotel, the Penthouse is brand new construction above a historic structure. Curious if you would consider running this news online? Living Room One of the standout elements of this master-of-the-universe abode is its massive private wraparound terrace spanning 3,114 SF across two levels with an outdoor kitchen complete with a wet bar, a fireplace, and a butler’s pantry. An elegant entry gallery, with a dedicated elevator and curved stair to the roof terrace, leads to a gracious corner great room with an elegant fireplace, coffered ceilings, captivating southwestern corner windows, and terrace access on two exposures through grandly scaled French doors. The windowed eat-in-kitchen, custom-designed by PINTO, features white lacquer cabinetry designed with an Art Deco-inspired geometric relief pattern and inset stainless steel and white oak details offset by crystal gray calcite slab countertops and backsplashes. This splendor is beyond atypical for new construction and 360-degree exposures fill the home with glorious light and killer views. Master Bedroom You step into NYC history with serious Parisian flair as you enter the gorgeous lobby of this just-launched hotel-to-condo conversion. The lobby features coffered ceilings, a custom walnut and marble concierge desk, and antique mirrored walls. Only 15 years ago, the hotel was the hotspot for celebrities to primp prior to their grand arrivals at the Met Ball.  Terrace This building was one of the very first structures in the historic landmarked neighborhood (that Woody Allen famously fought to preserve) and was built in 1899. It harkens to a bygone era where New Yorkers appreciated pre-war detail and impeccable design. The facade includes a cornice that was sized down by a special team of preservationist architects so that the penthouse would not be too visible from the street per Landmark requirements. The end result blends beautifully with the original aesthetic. Kid Bedroom The Wales was developed by Adellco, the team behind 27 East 79th Street. Matthew Adell, President of Adellco, is available to speak to you about this unique offering, as is J.P. Forbes, the exclusive listing agent / Director of Sales with Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group.  Here is a link to images (credit VMI Studios). Here is a link to floorplans. Here is a brochure. The post Stunning NEW Penthouse at The Historic Wales Lists for $23 Million appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklyMar 26th, 2022

How China turned a Tiananmen Square memorial into one of the most sought-after sculptures in the world

The "Pillar of Shame" was meant to spread all around the world. It didn't — until now, thanks to its removal in Hong Kong. Danish sculptor Jens Galschiøt (right) with a Pillar of Shame.Mikkel Møller for Insider Last December, Hong Kong removed the Pillar of Shame, a memorial to the Tiananmen Square massacre. The removal only increased the monument's fame – and brought a flood of requests for replicas.  Creator Jens Galschiøt gave up his copyright to the sculpture, enabling 3D printers to make copies. HONG KONG – In the 1990s, a Danish sculptor launched an audacious project to pepper the earth with copies of a grotesque sculpture that depicted human bodies wreathed together in pain. The monument, known as the "Pillar of Shame," is constructed out of bronze, copper or concrete and stands atop a square plinth. It rises about 8 meters, or 26 feet, in all. Its creator, Jens Galschiøt, envisioned it as a "Nobel Prize of Injustice" and vowed to place replicas of the pillar all over the world to mark acts of genocide and murder. For a time, Galschiøt's effort was something of a success. He installed a copy of the pillar in Hong Kong in 1997 to commemorate the Tiananmen Square massacre, in which Chinese troops killed hundreds if not thousands of peaceful pro-democracy protesters. He landed a second copy in Mexico in 1999 to commemorate the slaughter of Indigenous people and a third in Brazil in 2000 to honor landless peasants killed by military police. But then the project stalled. For over two decades, it seemed no one was interested in getting a Pillar of Shame — that is, until now.These days, the 67-year-old sculptor is so inundated with requests for copies of his signature artwork that he needs a full-time apprentice just to manage the endless stream of emails and phone calls. He's being sought out for art exhibitions, speeches, interviews, and new Pillar of Shame installations around the world. At Galschiøt's foundry, about two hours outside of Copenhagen, Denmark, his team is working overtime to cast replicas of various sizes. He has also invited artists everywhere to help meet the demand for replicas by using 3D-printing technologies and a free blueprint of the sculpture."The Pillar of Shame in miniature.Mikkel Møller for InsiderThe spark that led to an explosion of interest in Galschiøt's project came in October, when Hong Kong University  ordered that the Pillar of Shame be removed from its longtime home on the school's campus — part of a larger effort to erase any public commemoration of the Tiananmen Square massacre.The sculpture's removal, carried out in the dead of night two days before Christmas, accomplished its goal of eliminating the controversial monument from public view. But it also unleashed something unexpected: China and Hong Kong authorities gave Galschiøt's struggling art project the sort of publicity that no amount of money and PR firms could buy. Galschiøt's Pillar of Shame was suddenly being discussed in The Washington Post and The New York Times and in outlets in Thailand, Iceland, Brazil, Turkey, Nigeria, Norway, Ireland, Germany, and Indonesia, to name just a few."They have made a big mistake," Galschiøt said in an interview. "Now, instead of one, they're getting hundreds of Pillars of Shame."A group of former US government officials is working to erect a full-size replica in front of the Chinese Embassy in Washington, DC. In Norway, there's a request to display a replica near the Nobel Peace Center in Oslo. In Taiwan, a pro-democracy group plans to unveil a 3D-printed model by June 4 to mark the 33rd anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. An artists collective is planning to organize a worldwide tour with Galschiøt's pillar to raise awareness of Hong Kong's struggle for democracy.Makerwiz 3D-printing studio in Richmond Hill, Ontario. Source: Makerwiz.Galschiøt is also making smaller, 8.5-foot replicas in copper that he aims to hoist on top of plinths with plates dedicated to Tiananmen victims and Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement, installing them at universities. For everyone else — volunteers at his workshop and ordinary people who are inspired by Galschiøt's vision, or perhaps his tenacity — he has finished a batch of 60 bronze copies that are about a foot tall. He's working on another 40. "There's a lot of people who ask for a copy of that sculpture now," Galschiøt said.The nascent efforts are a cautionary tale of what happens when regimes try to censor art. "The rulers, tyrants know the power of art. That's why artists, poets, and musicians are the first ones they persecute and even kill," said Rose Tang, a Tiananmen survivor and artist. But, as one 3D printer who recently replicated Galschiøt's sculpture put it, "ideas can never be suppressed." Galschiøt's Pillar of Shame is finally an idea whose time has come. Except, rather than commemorating atrocities in spots across the globe, the monument now seems poised to become synonymous with one event above all others: the Tiananmen Square massacre and China's efforts to erase it from memory. A witness For more than two decades, anyone who visited the western edge of Hong Kong University's winding Pok Fu Lam campus would inevitably bump into Galschiøt's Pillar of Shame. It was situated off a major campus walkway, boxed inside a narrow atrium next to a popular student canteen. (Disclosure: The author teaches at Hong Kong University's journalism program.) As you looked up from your meal, your eyes would fall upon the Eiffel Tower-like heap of some 50 twisted bodies screaming in pain. Many of the faces looked like cadavers that had already breathed their last while others appeared to be in the act of dying; a man clutching a baby looked as if he was running away from some danger. Layers of thick orange paint flowed from the top down, turning yellow and peeling in places, giving the whole mass the hellish appearance of a pile of burning human flesh. The inscription "THE TIANANMEN MASSACRE" was etched in thick, blood-red letters on one side of the square base, above the date June 4, 1989. Directly to the left was another inscription that read, "the old cannot kill the young forever."Students gather around Galschiøt's Pillar of Shame sculpture in Hong Kong on October 12, 2021.Cezary Podkul for InsiderFor students who came to study here from mainland China, the pillar might be their first introduction to the Tiananmen massacre. On one side of the pillar's base, a plaque provided "A Brief History of the 1989 Beijing Pro-Democracy Movement." It recounted how the death of pro-reform Communist Party leader Hu Yaobang in April 1989 sparked mass demonstrations in favor of democratic reforms. Beijing's Tiananmen Square became a central gathering spot for students who waged a hunger strike to try to prompt a dialogue with Communist Party leaders. The government refused, declared martial law, and ultimately sent in military convoys to clear the square. On June 3 and 4, 1989, "several thousand soldiers forced their way via various routes into Beijing City, using guns and bullets to shoot unarmed citizens and students. Tanks were deployed to recover the Square," the plaque read. An official death toll was never confirmed. A 1990 report on the massacre by Amnesty International noted that Chinese authorities tallied some 200 civilian casualties, while Amnesty itself concluded that at least 1,000 people had been killed. Another more recent estimate based on a diplomatic cable declassified in 2017 pinned the number of civilian casualties at more than 10,000.Whatever the ultimate toll, there was no doubt in Rose Tang's mind that it had been a bloody day. Rose Tang in Tiananmen Square on May 21, 1989. At the time, she was a 20-year-old freshman in college.Rose Tang/HandoutTang was a freshman studying English at what was then known as the Beijing Second Foreign Languages Institute. She ditched classes in the spring of 1989 to join her classmates in Tiananmen Square to chant pro-democracy slogans, even though, she now says, she had very little idea of what democracy even meant. Her memoir of the events of June 4 describes bullets whizzing overhead, a stampede trampling over dead bodies, and the deafening noise of tanks moving in and crushing tents set up in the square. But there's one detail of the aftermath that helps explain why Galschiøt's sculpture found a loyal following in Hong Kong, which was a British colony until 1997. When Tang revisited Tiananmen Square some seven months after the massacre, she found no trace of what had happened there that day. There were no signs of blood stains or bullet holes from June 4, 1989, let alone any memorial. She walked around, trying to find proof to back up her memories. There were only a few armed soldiers patrolling the square as water trucks sprinkled water on the ground. "All I could see was the clean wet concrete ground glittering in street lights," she recalled in her memoir.Tang turned to a life of art and activism to help her cope with the events of that day. She has written poetry and music inspired by June 4, 1989, and toured with a band that performed songs that student protesters sang at Tiananmen Square. "Making music and using music to heal and mobilize people is my way of carrying on the true legacy of Tiananmen. Art is power. Performance is protest," she said.Tang eschewed making sculptures, though. "I just personally found it really hard to convey the experience of Tiananmen through visual art," she said. She admires Galschiøt for trying. Rose Tang at a Tiananmen Square massacre memorial in New York City on June 4, 2020.Thirdblade PhotographyBut something about Galschiøt's sculpture always puzzled Tang. On close inspection, the figures assembled on Galschiøt's pillar appeared to span the races. One could be excused for wondering whether this was all a mistake: A white man from Denmark created a sculpture to commemorate the killings of Chinese civilians, and he filled it with people from all over the world?'My Inner Beast'The international nature of the sculpture was precisely what Galschiøt had in mind when he began to sketch out the vision for his Pillar of Shame in the early 1990s. Galschiøt had turned to making sculptures in the 1980s after a career as a blacksmith at a Danish shipyard and a rebellious youth filled with drugs, travel, and a desire to distance himself from his father's communist sympathies. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, he grew hopeful for a more egalitarian future but was soon dismayed by Serbian militias' mass rape of Muslim women in Bosnia and other atrocities. He became convinced that civilization is only a thin veneer that can crumble at any time and unleash an inner barbarism laid bare in such episodes. In 1993 he installed concrete sculptures of a pig dressed in a gentleman's overcoat in 20 cities across Europe. Titled "My Inner Beast," the project aimed to call attention to Europeans' mistreatment of ethnic minorities. The sculptures proved an unwelcome sight to governments that never asked for them. Most were torn down, and only a few remain standing today. Galschiøt's middle son, Kasper Galschiøt Markus, recalled eating "significantly more porridge" in the months that followed since Galschiøt nearly went broke paying for the project out of pocket. But profit wasn't the goal. The reaction to the sculpture became part of the story the art sought to tell, summarized by the motto, "It is not the foreigners but our reaction to the foreigners that threatens our civilization." Galschiøt preparing a Pillar of Shame replica.Mikkel Møller for InsiderGalschiøt began to make small models of the Pillar of Shame that same year. As the idea took shape, he assembled 7 tons of clay to create the casting mold for the sculpture.He included faces of people that represented a wide variety of races and ethnicities, hoping to create a universal symbol. Once he finished his prototype in 1996, he went looking for contacts who could help him install it in various places around the world. The Tiananmen Square massacre quickly came to mind, but he knew it would be impossible to install a pillar in Beijing. 'They made a good fight for freedom'Hong Kong offered the tantalizing possibility of a work-around. After years of negotiations, the UK was due to hand control of Hong Kong back to China on July 1, 1997.  If Galschiøt could get the pillar to Hong Kong while the city was still in British hands, China would take the sculpture with it. "At that time, we had good reason to believe that this statue would not be allowed to enter after the transition," Albert Ho, who helped Galschiøt get the pillar to Hong Kong, recalled in a later interview.Ho was a leader of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China, a group founded in 1989 just before the massacre. One of the alliance's signature projects was an annual candlelight vigil commemorating Tiananmen victims. Galschiøt reached out to see whether the group would help him install a replica of the sculpture and soon he had a partner: On May 2, 1997, he packed up a copy of the pillar in a shipping container and sent it off to Hong Kong. The sculpture arrived at a Hong Kong container terminal nine days before the alliance's annual candlelight vigil in the city's sprawling Victoria Park. The alliance displayed it prominently at the June 4 vigil, which happened to coincide with Galschiøt's birthday. Afterward, the pillar was loaded onto a truck headed for Hong Kong University, where student leaders hoped to install it near their student union. Tang joined part of the march to campus, walking alongside Galschiøt. Galschiøt grew concerned as scuffles broke out between students and security guards who wouldn't let the truck through to campus. Security guards eventually relented, and the sculpture was dropped off as onlookers applauded, according to Associated Press archival footage from the night. "They made a good fight for freedom," Galschiøt told an AP reporter at the time.The pillar made the rounds to several schools around the city before the Hong Kong University student union voted in 1998 to permanently host it on its campus. Galschiøt, meanwhile, wrote a manifesto for his artwork. "My name is Jens Galschiøt. I'm a Danish artist born 1954. My new art happening the Pillar of Shame has just been launched, as the sculpture was displayed 4th June '97 in Hong Kong," began the lengthy December 1997 missive, which predicted that "over the next ten years the happening will spread over the Planet." Galschiøt listed Auschwitz, the site of the infamous Nazi death camp, and Rwanda, where a 1994 genocide had just killed an estimated 800,000 people, as two possible candidates for Pillars of Shame.Galschiøt outside his studio in Denmark.Mikkel Møller for InsiderSoon he managed to install a "Columna de la infamia" in Mexico to commemorate the 1997 killings of 45 Indigenous people in Chiapas state and a "Coluna da infâmia" in Brazil to mark the 1996 murder of 19 landless Brazilian peasants. Both sculptures made brief appearances near parliament buildings in their respective countries, elevating their visibility in Mexico and Brazil. In 1999 he outlined a grand vision to install a pillar in Berlin atop a platform covered with bronze plates notched with 10 million lines representing the victims of Nazi-era persecution (the project was too costly, and he gave up on it in late 2002). In 2012, he traveled to Iraq to explore the possibility of placing a pillar there to commemorate the victims of Saddam Hussein's mass murders of Iraqi Kurds in the 1980s (installing a sculpture in a war zone was too dangerous, though Galschiøt hopes to try again someday).Galschiøt openly mused that Hong Kong's Pillar of Shame might someday move to Beijing if political circumstances allowed it. But he acknowledged that it might just as well be removed or destroyed: "The Pillar of Shame will be a test of the validity of the new authorities' guarantees for human rights and freedom of expression in Hong Kong," he wrote in a post on his website.'The old cannot kill the young forever'Galschiøt was right about the possibility of his sculpture being removed from Hong Kong.The early signs of trouble came in April 2008, when Galschiøt flew to the city only to be denied entry. He was there to paint the pillar orange as part of a campaign to raise awareness of China's alleged human-rights abuses ahead of the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing. In Galschiøt's absence, members of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China carried out the paint job. News reports at the time described the ordeal as a test of the freedoms China had granted to Hong Kong when it took over.Hong Kongers would experience many more such tests in the years that followed. In 2014, protests erupted when China insisted on vetting any candidates for the territory's chief executive before allowing the post to be elected directly by the people. The tense 79-day standoff with pro-democracy protesters became known as the Umbrella Movement after demonstrators used umbrellas to shield themselves from the pepper spray police used to try to disperse them. The sense of togetherness and community among the protesters felt like a repeat of the 1989 Tiananmen Square movement to Tang, who flew from the US to Hong Kong to camp out with the protesters and speak up for their cause. Even larger protests shook the city in 2019 after Hong Kong leaders proposed amending the territory's extradition laws to allow criminal suspects to be sent to mainland China to stand trial. The protests grew into a broader movement against Beijing's encroachments on the freedoms guaranteed to Hong Kong under the terms of its handover from the UK. Meanwhile, Beijing readied a national-security law that would give China broad authority to stamp out dissent in Hong Kong. Even before the law took effect, in June 2020, authorities had already taken aim at Hong Kong's long tradition of commemorating the Tiananmen victims. They refused to let the alliance organize its annual June 4 vigil in 2020, citing COVID-19 restrictions. Thousands showed up anyway. In 2021, Hong Kong blocked the June 4 vigil again and put up a massive police presence to deter Hong Kongers from defying the ban. The same month, the alliance's museum commemorating the massacre was forced to shut down. Police raided the museum in September and confiscated its exhibits just a day after arresting the alliance's leaders under the guise of the national-security law. The alliance disbanded on September 25, and days later reports surfaced that the digital version of its Tiananmen Square massacre museum had been blocked in Hong Kong.  By early October, the pillar's time had come. Galschiøt wasn't formally notified that the Pillar of Shame would be removed. Mayer Brown, an American law firm representing Hong Kong University, sent a letter demanding its removal to the liquidators of the alliance (the alliance didn't actually own the sculpture; Galschiøt had always retained ownership). The October 7 letter gave the now-defunct pro-democracy group six days to remove the sculpture from the university, a publicly funded institution, or consider the pillar abandoned property that would be dealt with "at such time and in such manner" as the university saw fit. Galschiøt tried to intervene but said he couldn't get a reply to his lawyer's pleas to let him come to Hong Kong to retrieve the artwork.The sudden deadline was sandwiched between two typhoons that pummeled Hong Kong with heavy rains and winds. As the storms moved through the city, the October 13 removal deadline held firm. Hong Kongers flocked to the sculpture to bid their farewells to what many saw as one of the last vestiges of freedom of expression in the Chinese territory. "Say goodbye to freedom," one man said as he snapped a photo of the sculpture one day before the deadline. Steps away, a father took a selfie in front of the pillar with his 9-year-old daughter. Afterward, the little girl grabbed her father's phone and snapped some photos of it herself. On their way out, he pointed to the inscription "the old cannot kill the young forever" as she looked on attentively. Shortly after, it started to rain again. But the crowds kept coming.A father introduces his daughter to Galschiøt's Pillar of Shame sculpture in Hong Kong on October 12, 2021.Cezary Podkul for InsiderThe university hit a snag when Mayer Brown bowed out of the legal matter amid public outrage that an American law firm would be helping Chinese authorities stifle freedom of expression in Hong Kong. (Mayer Brown's decision prompted a former Hong Kong chief executive to call for a China-wide boycott of the law firm. Spokespeople for Mayer Brown did not respond to comment requests.) Several weeks followed when the sculpture's fate stood in a strange state of limbo; it wasn't clear when exactly it would disappear, but there was no doubt the end was near. An artists' collective known as Lady Liberty Hong Kong made use of the delay to take detailed photos of the pillar and create a three-dimensional model that could be used as a basis for 3D printing. Galschiøt, meanwhile, dusted off old molds that he had used to create smaller replicas of the Pillar of Shame in the 1990s so that he would be ready if his sculpture were removed. The limbo ended on December 22. Galschiøt had just told the workers in his workshop in Odense, Denmark, to go home early and enjoy the holiday when he got a call from a reporter seeking comment on the sculpture's removal.  The energy drained from his body; he looked like a parent who had just learned about the loss of his child, recalled his apprentice, Lauge Jakobsen. Social media lit up with footage of workers fencing off the area around the pillar so no one would witness its removal. Reporters still managed to document parts of the ordeal, which ended with a human-like fragment of the sculpture being loaded into a shipping container by a group of workers in hard hats resembling pallbearers at a funeral.The former site of the Pillar of Shame at Hong Kong University as seen the day after the monument was removed.Cezary Podkul for Insider As Galschiøt watched from a distance, all he could do was decry the university's actions. He issued a statement calling the sculpture's removal an unreasonable act of "self-immolation against private property in Hong Kong." Hong Kong University said in a statement that "no party has ever obtained any approval from the university to display the statue on campus," and the statue would be placed in storage pending legal advice on what to do with it. Galschiøt said the university has now responded to his lawyer, and he is sorting out the details of how to return the sculpture from Hong Kong. A spokeswoman for the university did not provide further details. 'Jens' biggest supporter has been the Chinese government'The sculpture's dramatic removal gave Galschiøt the kind of worldwide attention he had long hoped to bring to his international art project. "Suddenly, all the world's eyes were turned on this Pillar of Shame," recalled Jakobsen, his apprentice. "From 7 a.m. to 3 a.m. at night the phone was calling all the time, and our email was looking like a celebrity's fan email because every 10 seconds there were coming new emails."Jakobsen switched from working in Galschiøt's workshop to assisting him in the office as he juggled media requests and inquiries about how to acquire a Pillar of Shame. "Jens' biggest supporter last year has been the Chinese government," Jakobsen said during a phone interview. Galschiøt could be heard laughing beside him.Jessica Chiu was one of those requesters. The native Hong Konger, who's 32 and lives in Norway, first learned about Tiananmen Square from her high school math teacher, who would abandon his usual lesson every June and instead teach about the massacre. Later, as a student at Hong Kong University, Chiu would occasionally pass by Galschiøt's sculpture. Chiu leads a Norwegian nonprofit focused on supporting human rights in Hong Kong. The group had been interested in exhibiting Galschiøt's pillar in Norway since 2020; its removal in Hong Kong reinforced those plans. "It makes us more motivated to do it, and it just makes the impact bigger," Chiu said. Her nonprofit has already applied for permits to display the sculpture at two locations in Oslo, including a plaza near the Nobel Peace Center.Galschiøt at his gallery in Odense, Denmark.Mikkel Møller for InsiderA similar effort is taking shape to bring a copy of the pillar in the US. The most provocative spot under consideration includes a park directly across from the Chinese Embassy in Washington DC. A group of former US government officials, outraged by Mayer Brown's involvement, is spearheading the initiative, which is still in its initial planning stages, according to a person familiar with the effort. Getting a 2-ton sculpture cast and transported abroad — let alone securing a spot for it — is no easy feat, so it's unclear how many of such installations will ultimately succeed. Galschiøt estimated that making the sculpture in a full-size bronze cast costs about $800,000. To make it more affordable and easier to handle, he has started making the smaller, 8.5-foot replicas in copper using an old mold he created in the 1990s. He hopes to distribute the smaller pillars to universities around the world (and requests that schools interested in a copy contact him). He scored his first win in Budapest, Hungary, on March 2, when one of the copper replicas was installed on the site of a future Budapest campus of Fudan University. Hungary lawmakers had voted in 2021 to donate four plots of land toward the planned campus of the Shanghai-based university, which ranks as one of China's most elite schools. The move sparked criticism of Chinese influence-buying and prompted Budapest's mayor to rename streets near the proposed site after various alleged human-rights abuses committed by China. Galschiøt traveled to Budapest to personally dedicate his "a szégyen oszlopa" (Hungarian for "Pillar of Shame") near the corner of Free Hong Kong Road and Uyghur Martyrs Road.Galschiøt applies paint to a pillar, which will soon be shipped aboard.Mikkel Møller for InsiderThe use of the artwork to make political statements about China's alleged human-rights abuses could get easier thanks to the rise of 3D printing. Lady Liberty Hong Kong's three-dimensional model of the sculpture has enabled anyone with access to a 3D printer to create a copy of the sculpture without bothering with the cost and logistics of transporting it from Denmark. To make the process even more hassle-free, Galschiøt surrendered his copyright to the sculpture, writing in an open letter on Christmas Day that anyone is free to 3D print or mass-produce replicas of the pillar as long as profits go to benefit pro-democracy causes in China and Hong Kong.  A 2-foot-tall replica created using Lady Liberty's model recently showed up at a Hong Kong pro-democracy rally in Manchester, England. An even bigger version — 10 feet or taller — is set to be 3D-printed in Taiwan in time for the June 4 anniversary of the massacre. The New School for Democracy Association Taiwan, a pro-democracy group, is spearheading that effort, which is in the planning and fundraising stages, according to the project's manager.Lady Liberty itself is hoping to organize an international art tour with Galschiøt that would feature the pillar as well as the group's own signature artwork,  a symbol of the 2019 protest movement in Hong Kong known as Lady Liberty Hong Kong. The 3.5-meter-tall, crowdfunded sculpture of a woman wearing a helmet, goggles, and a respirator made the rounds to various sites across Hong Kong in 2019, including a famous summit known as Lion Rock, before being vandalized and thrown off the cliff (most likely by pro-government activists). Lady Liberty is preparing to sell small replicas of the Pillar of Shame to help fund the art tour, which would also invite other artists to participate, a spokesperson said.Galschiøt's team with a copy of the Pillar of Shame.Mikkel Møller for InsiderTang is raising her hand for the effort. She said she'd like to reunite her Tiananmen band and perform under Galschiøt's Pillar of Shame if a replica makes its way for a tour in the US. In Canada, a scrappy group of expatriate Hong Kongers created a supply chain that allows them to 3D print and ship copies of the pillar anywhere in the world. Their website, CanHKer.ca, sells a variety of Hong Kong-themed merchandise — including 3D prints of Lady Liberty Hong Kong — to fund pro-democracy causes. Proceeds from the 3D-printed pillar replicas are earmarked for organizations that help young Hong Kong refugees resettle in Canada and seek asylum, said Eric Li, who cofounded one of the groups and helped launch the merchandise website. Many of the refugees are youths who faced persecution for their pro-democracy activities, Li said. Some are depressed and feel guilty, even suicidal, for having left Hong Kong behind, he said. Others are traumatized after their violent clashes with police. "They feel they betrayed their friends because they ran away from the action," said Li, who helps arrange counseling for the youths as part of his work for one of the groups that will receive proceeds from the pillars'  sales. Art 'without interruption'There isn't much action left when it comes to protests in Hong Kong. The Beijing-imposed national-security law has succeeded in ending the mass demonstrations that gripped the city in 2019. You might find an occasional pro-democracy slogan or poster here or there, but any public artwork the government could deem subversive to Beijing is likely to quickly vanish from public view. A day after Galschiøt's pillar disappeared in December, two other Tiananmen-themed monuments were removed by universities in Hong Kong. The "Goddess of Democracy," an imitation of a sculpture created by Tiananmen Square protesters in 1989, was hauled away from the Chinese University of Hong Kong on December 24. A relief depicting the Tiananmen Square massacre was removed from the campus of Lingnan University the same day. Both artworks were created by Chen Weiming, an exiled Chinese sculptor who lives in California. Chen is now trying to repatriate the monuments from the universities and is planning to house them at a Tiananmen Square museum that he hopes to build at his sculpture park in Yermo, California. "In America, I can do anything I want to do. In China, I can't do it," Chen said.In late January, Hong Kong University covered up the last public tribute to Tiananmen victims on its campus — a hand-painted slogan on a bridge outside a dormitory. It read, "The souls of the martyrs shall forever linger despite the cold-blooded massacre. The spark of democracy shall forever glow for the demise of evil." Every year, students would touch up the paint on the 32-year-old inscription and wash the Pillar of Shame.The former site of the Pillar of Shame at Hong Kong University has been replaced with an outdoor seating area.Cezary Podkul for InsiderThe former site of the pillar is now a seating area with movable plastic furniture atop wooden planks. The area stood empty on a recent Monday evening as the clean, wet planks glittered in overhead lights. With the usual churn of a university, it won't take more than a few years for future generations of students to sit in the area without any idea of what stood here previously, or why. But nearby, another sculpture remains intact. It's a commemoration of Dr. Sun Yat-sen, widely regarded as the father of modern China, who sits calmly in a chair surrounded by a placid fishpond topped with water lilies. Sun is a rare figure in recent Chinese history, revered on both sides of the Taiwan Strait for helping to end feudal imperial monarchy in China and briefly serving as the first president of the Republic of China in 1912. Even as Hong Kong stamps out dissent, posters honoring him as a "great outlaw" invite visitors to a museum of Sun's life and legacy. The university installed Sun's statue in 2003 so students could follow his historic footprint, according to a dedication issued at the time. A sculpture of Sun Yat-sen, the father of modern China, adorns a lily pond on the Hong Kong University campus.Cezary Podkul for InsiderIt is impossible to know what Sun might say about the removal of the Pillar of Shame and other artworks in Hong Kong if he were alive today. But a speech that he gave nearly 100 years ago on Hong Kong University's campus gives a clue. In his remarks, Sun called Hong Kong and the university his "intellectual birthplace" and explained why he got his revolutionary ideas there: "Hong Kong impressed me a great deal, because there was orderly calm and because there was artistic work being done without interruption."Cezary Podkul is an award-winning investigative reporter who has written for ProPublica, The Wall Street Journal and Reuters. He teaches at Hong Kong University's Journalism and Media Studies Centre.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderMar 18th, 2022

Adelaide Polsinelli hired to sell Greenwich Village Avenue corner two story retail condo

Adelaide Polsinelli, Vice Chairman of Compass, a publicly traded, technology-driven, real estate platform, has been hired to market for sale, the 17,000 +/- square foot, retail condo with 160’ of wraparound frontage, located at 350 6th Avenue, also known as 88 Washington Place, on the North East Corner of Sixth... The post Adelaide Polsinelli hired to sell Greenwich Village Avenue corner two story retail condo appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. Adelaide Polsinelli, Vice Chairman of Compass, a publicly traded, technology-driven, real estate platform, has been hired to market for sale, the 17,000 +/- square foot, retail condo with 160’ of wraparound frontage, located at 350 6th Avenue, also known as 88 Washington Place, on the North East Corner of Sixth Avenue. Adelaide Polsinelli The property consists of two separate condo units. The ground floor, with 15’ ceilings, is approximately 8,000 +/- square feet and ready for immediate occupancy. It is vented for possible food and beverage use. The 2nd floor, with its private elevator and separate entrance is zoned for community facility use and was licensed for childcare. Both units will be delivered vacant, offering a blank canvas for an owner-user, or national brand who will appreciate the multi-faceted possibilities. This offering presents a purchaser with the opportunity to own an iconic, flagship, property on a well-trafficked avenue. The space is divisible, and most uses are permitted including vented cooking. Ideal for any type of retail including, home furnishings, apparel, fitness, medical or health and wellness, 350 6th Avenue is an exceptional choice. “This high profile, real estate presents an ideal situation for individual tenanted use as well as any combination of retail, medical, educational and office uses,” Polsinelli commented. The property is located steps from iconic Washington Square Park, New York University and may other well-known Greenwich Village historic destinations. The property is flanked on either side by the West 4th Street Transit hub connecting over seven main train lines as well as buses. Neighbors include several national chains such as; Chase, Capital One Bank, CVS, and CitiMD, to name a few. “Fortunately, we are finally seeing signs of a strong retail resurgence as more businesses and organizations, are realizing that owning their real estate has significant advantages,” noted Polsinelli. “This is especially true today as interest rates are still at all-time lows. The renewed boost in real estate activity is just what New York City needed to remind businesses that we are in a “once in a cycle” buying opportunity,” Polsinelli concluded. The post Adelaide Polsinelli hired to sell Greenwich Village Avenue corner two story retail condo appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklyFeb 24th, 2022

Go, Team, Go: How Sports Can Shape Real Estate

Everyone knows someone (or is someone) that makes sports fandom a defining passion. From everyday choices like clothing to enormously important life events like weddings, these individuals dedicate tremendous energy, time and money to their favorite team, school or competition. But when it comes to the biggest financial decision of their lives, how much do […] The post Go, Team, Go: How Sports Can Shape Real Estate appeared first on RISMedia. Everyone knows someone (or is someone) that makes sports fandom a defining passion. From everyday choices like clothing to enormously important life events like weddings, these individuals dedicate tremendous energy, time and money to their favorite team, school or competition. But when it comes to the biggest financial decision of their lives, how much do sports factor in? Can the die-hard fans of a franchise or school redefine a real estate market? How do real estate professionals incorporate these incredible passions into their own lives and businesses? Like everything in the industry, the specifics depend on where you live. But in each disparate city, centered around stadiums or spread through historic neighborhoods bedecked in local colors, sports often draw new lines across the real estate landscape. Whether it is Main Street traditions stretching back 100 years or access to game-day celebrations, catering to sports fans has inexorably shaped how real estate functions—at least in some markets. Green Bay, Wisconsin, was originally occupied by the indigenous Menominee tribe, eventually colonized and settled by French farmers and fur traders. But the town of just over 100,000, sitting on the edge of Lake Michigan in the frigid northern midwest, is not as much known today for this history, its industry or geography. Since 1919, Green Bay has been the home of the Packers, now members of the National Football League (though the team actually came into being before the league). Considered a sort of holy city of football, the Packers lay claim to some of the most significant moments, players and developments in the sport, from hosting the 1967 “Ice Bowl” (with gametime temperatures at around -45 degrees Fahrenheit) to the iconic tradition of the “Lambeau Leap” (which sees players leaping into the arms of fans following a score). Ben Malcore, a broker for Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices in Green Bay, is a lifetime fan of the Packers—truly and literally. His parents put him on the waiting list for season tickets at birth. Two decades later, Malcore received his tickets and has never looked back. “You see a lot of either former Wisconsinites or even people who are out of the county who are just sort of die-hard Packer fans investing in real estate in and around the stadium,” he says. Green Bay is particularly unique not just due to its history, but also due to its size and location. About 120 miles from the nearest metro in Milwaukee, the city does not check any of the boxes of a major sports market, and without the kind of amenities available and accessibility inherent to big coastal metros, the Packers themselves provide an anchor both practically and through the team’s culture in Green Bay. Everything from fancy outlet stores to hotels to tech companies have invested in the otherwise small-town market of Green Bay because of the Packers, Malcore says, including big tech companies like Microsoft. At the same time, average residents benefit from the presence of the Packers as well. Those with property near the stadium have put their kids through college by renting out their lawns as premium game-day parking. “Folks put out a sign—’Twenty bucks, restroom available, easy in, easy out.’ And you’re on the road to a small business,” Malcore laughs. “Oh, it’s crazy.” It is barely an exaggeration to say that Green Bay is owned by the iconic football team. The Packers in fact, developed their own condo district right next to the stadium, selling what Malcore described as “an integrated Packer experience” in 2,200 to 2,800-square-foot townhomes (priced from around $700,000 to $1 million). Malcore himself sold a couple of these homes—one to a former professional hockey player who wanted “to live Green Back Packers every day.” With a condo, residents get VIP access to various Packer amenities, including a winter tubing park, a Packers-themed football field, an ice-skating rink and invitations to ownership meetings (the Packers are unique in North American sports franchises in being a publicly traded, non-profit company rather than an individually owned or corporate entity). Green Bay is not the only place where real estate is defined by a team, or teams. Another much larger mid-Atlantic city in western Pennsylvania has seen its blue-collar, hard-bitten history and culture coalesce around sports fandoms. Pittsburgh has been Mark Handlovitch’s home his whole life, working on a horse farm when he was young before getting into real estate. When asked about the local sports fandoms, he quickly devolves into a passionate and far-reaching soliloquy, rattling off the names of neighborhoods where local stars grew up, telling stories of encounters with current or former players and describing tailgate scenes with the detail and depth of a renaissance painter. “These small steel towns, that’s where it really evolved from—it wasn’t the flashy ritzy neighborhoods. In Pittsburgh, it came from the deeply rooted steel towns and the steelworkers and the miners who went to work every day. And the roots are still there,” says Handlovitch. A great example of this is the city’s hockey franchise, the Pittsburgh Penguins. The team did not have the respect of Pittsburgh residents automatically, nearly forced to fold after a decade of mediocrity in the 1970s and early 1980s. But when a man named Mario Lemieux—a 6’4,’’ 240-pound son of a construction worker—joined the team in the mid-80s and began dominating the ice with a combination of deft skill and toughness (famously playing in a game the same day he received radiation treatment for Hodgkin’s Lymphoma), Pittsburgh fans showed up. And they kept showing up too, becoming one of the most die-hard fan bases in the National Hockey League. Photo courtesy of Mark Handlovitch But the NFL’s Steelers (Handlovitch asks the name be spelled “Stielers” to reflect the local pronunciation) remain the city’s biggest draw. Knowing where to be on fall and winter game days (and pre-game days) is essential, he says. People often want to live on these routes—including a river shuttle service that operates even on sub-freezing winter weekends—if only for the spectacle of parades of black and gold (the team colors all three major Pittsburgh sports franchises). “You talk about tailgating—tailgating is everywhere here. It’s not just around the stadium,” he says. Movers and Shakers There is perhaps no one more dialed into both sports and real estate than Doug Walker of John L. Scott Real Estate in Seattle. For more than four decades, Walker managed the visiting clubhouse for the NFL’s Seattle Seahawks, traveling almost weekly to stadiums from Florida to Michigan (including working three Super Bowls) while simultaneously working as a real estate broker. Recently retired from the sports side of his work, Walker says understanding the intersection of both fandoms and the practical machinations of the sports world has been foundational to his real estate business. “A lot of what I do real estate-wise came from me being in professional locker rooms,” he says. Everyone from players and coaches to team support staff are constantly moving in the sports industry, and Walker says the connections he made working for the Seahawks created an incredibly powerful network of people looking for someone to help them buy or sell a house. “When you know somebody—their equipment manager has a friend who is moving to Seattle, they would call me up,” he says. “That network has been really a good source of referral business for us over the years. It’s kind of a fraternity—you have coaches that are always moving cities, and players and staff and friends.” That level of knowledge and connection is obviously unique, and not every real estate agent can get a part-time gig with a professional sports team. But integrating into the sports landscape, as Walker has, can help grow a real estate business in a plethora of ways. Adam Davis is an associate broker for RE/MAX Select in Portland, Oregon—a city that isn’t necessarily known for its sports fandoms. The NBA’s Trail Blazers, the MLS’ Timbers and the NWSL’s Thorns all maintain extremely passionate fan bases, and the college rivalry (known as the “Civil War”) between the University of Oregon and Oregon State remains red-hot in the area, he says. But Davis adds that a lot of his sports-related connections come from transplants moving to Portland who want to bring and share their disparate team loyalties in a new city. Photo courtesy of Kevin Dyer “Being a sports fan myself—either you’re in Portland so there are no sports to care about other than the Blazers and the Timbers, or you’re a sports fan in general,” he says. “So just being able to keep tabs on other teams gives me a little bit of an insight and a conversation to have with people who are coming from out of town.” Like in many cities, certain bars, restaurants and neighborhoods have organically developed to cater to fans of specific teams or schools, according to Davis. As a fan of the NFL’s Minnesota Vikings himself, navigating the local scene of national sports loyalties is both difficult and important for his business. “I can recommend even down to the neighborhood where they can live in proximity to sports venues where they can watch their favorite games,” he says. “I can say, ‘If you wanna go watch a game, don’t go to this bar, because it’s not going to be a friendly audience.’” Hometown Heroes Maybe the most important part of sports to a real estate professional is personal and straightforward, and has nothing to do with estimating property values or calculating commute times on game days. In an industry where authenticity is everything, there is almost nothing as local and loved as sports, and someone who can bring their passions to that arena will always have a way to connect with his or her community. “It’s incomparable to me. It’s a giant party of like-minded individuals,” says Malcore of the Packers fandom. Handlovich says that in Pittsburgh, he can talk with nearly anyone about specific neighborhoods, towns and high schools where local sports heroes lived or grew up. He speaks excitedly about encountering local legends, and lists a handful of sports stars who actually made their names playing for other teams (Joe Namath, Mike Ditka) but grew up in Pittsburgh. He recalls specific moments—when Houston Oilers star Earl Campbell took an earth-shattering tackle from the Steelers Donnie Shell in 1978. The feeling of stocking up on game day food, drinks and snacks in the city’s famous Strip District—a concourse lined with historic and local businesses historically home to all the wholesale food peddlers—is something Hadlovich can describe in vivid detail to a Pittsburgh newcomer, or empathize with to others like him who grew up there. “Even the visitors come down go into the Strip District because the culture down there is amazing,” he says. “It’s the old stores, the old names on them that have been around for generations.” In Seattle, where stadium location and city layout isn’t as conducive to tailgating as some other cities, Walker says that the Seahawks, Major League Baseball’s Mariners and the NHL’s Kraken connect people across the region in a way that almost no other belief, habit or passion can. “The fan base here is huge, and the suburbs and the bars and restaurants are always really crowded,” he says. “Each community has their own venues…it’s a common denominator.” For those in real estate, all of this has tremendous value in building a brand and creating trust and lasting relationships with people. Walker says his local reputation as someone who worked for the Seahawks has directly resulted in people approaching him for the real estate needs, and “sports celebration venues” like garages and ADUs remain common. Davis says that one of the most fulfilling parts of his profession is connecting people with what they love and value in new living situations. Often buyers are resigned to losing some of the experiences they enjoyed in home-town fandoms when they move, or are afraid of feeling isolated from the overall sports landscape. Helping them hold onto those feelings can make all the difference, according to Davis. “Just learning that there are active sports fans here, it is a visible relief for people here, because it’s such an enjoyable pastime for them that they weren’t expecting to hold onto,” he says. Jesse Williams is RISMedia’s associate online editor. Email him your real estate news ideas to jwilliams@rismedia.com. The post Go, Team, Go: How Sports Can Shape Real Estate appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaJan 5th, 2022

Tesla Will Recouple With Reality When The Bulls Least Expect It

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended December 31, 2021, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Tesla’s Absurd Diluted Market Cap We remain short the biggest bubble in modern stock market history, Tesla Inc. (TSLA), which has a completely absurd diluted market cap of almost […] Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended December 31, 2021, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get Our Activist Investing Case Study! Get the entire 10-part series on our in-depth study on activist investing in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or print it out to read anywhere! Sign up below! (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Tesla's Absurd Diluted Market Cap We remain short the biggest bubble in modern stock market history, Tesla Inc. (TSLA), which has a completely absurd diluted market cap of almost $1.2 trillion despite a steadily sliding share of the world’s EV market and a share of the overall auto market that’s only around 1.1% (yes, one POINT one percent). At some point when momentum-riding Tesla bulls (or, for that matter, bears) least expect it, TSLA will recouple with “reality,” and that’s why I continue to maintain a short position. So here’s “reality”… Tesla has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of electric car technology, while existing automakers—unlike Tesla­—have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably. Excluding sunsetting emission credit sales Tesla is barely profitable. Growth in sequential unit demand for Tesla’s cars is at a crawl relative to expectations. Elon Musk is a pathological liar who under the terms of his SEC settlement cannot deny having committed securities fraud. Many Tesla bulls sincerely believe that ten years from now the company will be twice the size of Volkswagen or Toyota, thereby selling around 21 million cars a year (up from the current one million). To illustrate how utterly clueless this is, going from a million cars a year today to 21 million in ten years means Tesla would have to add a brand new 500,000 car/year factory with sold out production EVERY single quarter for ten years! To do this even in twenty years would require adding a new factory with sold out production every six months, at which point Tesla would then be approximately twice the size of Toyota (current market cap: $257 billion) or Volkswagen (current market cap: $130 billion), making a Tesla twenty times its current size worth perhaps $500 billion in twenty years. If you discount that $500 billion back by 15% a year (which is likely a much smaller return than any Tesla bull expects) for twenty years, you get a net present value for Tesla stock of approximately $30 a share, down over 97% from 2021’s closing price. That’s why when idiot Tesla bulls look at the company’s current large trailing percentage growth from its recent tiny base and extrapolate that into the future they’re being, well… idiot Tesla bulls! Q3 Deliveries In October Tesla reported Q3 deliveries of 241,000 cars, a 40,000-unit gain over Q2 that’s a rounding error for an auto company trading at even one-tenth of Tesla’s valuation. (For Q4 the gain is expected to be another 45-50,000.) If in any quarter GM or VW or Toyota sold 2.04 million vehicles instead of 2 million or 1.96 million, no one would pay the slightest bit of attention to the difference. Seeing as Tesla is now being valued at over fourteen GMs, it’s time (as noted above) to start looking at its relatively tiny numerical sequential sales growth, rather than Wall Street’s sell-side hype of “percentage off a small base.” In other words, if you want to be valued at a giant multiple of “the big boys,” you should be treated as a big boy. Perhaps the biggest reason Tesla has recently been able to post marginally increasing sequential quarterly deliveries is because competitors’ production (and thus inventories) are at the lowest level in decades due to the massive chip shortage, thereby eliminating a number of “Tesla alternatives.” Meanwhile, Tesla is enjoying record production because Musk (a notorious “corner-cutter”) is apparently willing to substitute untested, non-auto-grade chips for the more durable chips he can’t get; please see my Twitter post about this. A favorite hype story from Tesla bulls has been “the China market” and its “record” number of 73,659 Q3 deliveries there. Let’s put this in perspective: this was only around 4000 more cars than in Q1 and only around 11,000 more than in Q2—again, these are “growth” rounding errors. (Thanks to drastically slashed production from chip-starved competitors, look for around 30,000 more in Q4.) And that “record” Q3 China quarter gave it just 1.5% of the overall passenger vehicle market and just 11% of the BEV market, and it had so much excess capacity that it exported tens of thousands of cars to Europe. Remember when Musk claimed that Tesla’s Chinese domestic demand alone would need multiple factories to satisfy? Ah, the good old days! Meanwhile, Tesla remains a lousy business. In its Q3 earnings report the company claimed it made around $1.3 billion in free cash flow (defined as operating cash flow less capex). However, this number appears to be entirely due to working capital adjustments and not from the business itself. Let me explain: Tesla claimed operating cash flow of around $3.2 billion for the quarter, but this came with the benefit of accounts payable increasing by $702 million, receivables declining by $167 million and accrued liabilities up by $665 million while (detrimentally) prepaid expenses increased by $144 million. Adjusting for that massive net working capital benefit, operating cash flow was only a bit over $1.8 billion and with capex at $1.8 billion it means Tesla’s Q3 free cash flow was essentially zero, and if you deduct stock comp (a non-cash item paid through share dilution) it was around negative $500 million. Also in its Q3 report Tesla claimed it made around $1.45 billion in net income after excluding $279 million of pure-profit emission credit sales (excluded because they’ll almost entirely disappear some time next year when other automakers will have enough EVs of their own), and after adding back a $50 million Bitcoin write-down. However, that earnings number also includes what I estimate to be Tesla’s usual $300 million or so in unsustainably low warranty provisioning, and after adjusting for that and assuming no other fraudulent accounting, Tesla only earned around $1.06/share, which annualizes to $4.24. An auto industry PE multiple of 10x would thus make TSLA worth around $42/share (admittedly, more than the “$0” I once expected), while a “growth multiple” of 20x would value it at $84, which is a 92% discount to December’s closing price of around $1057. And before you tell me that a 100% premium to the industry’s PE ratio isn’t enough, keep in mind that—as noted earlier—Tesla’s sequential unit growth is an auto industry rounding error. In fact, one could argue that Tesla’s multiple should carry a discount, considering the massive legal and financial liabilities continually generated by its pathologically lying CEO. Full Self Driving Meanwhile Tesla continues to sell (and book cash flow, if not accounting revenue from) its fraudulent & dangerous so-called “Full Self Driving.” In a sane regulatory environment Tesla having done this for five years now… …would be considered “consumer fraud,” and indeed the regulatory tide may finally be turning, as in August two U.S. Senators demanded an FTC investigation and in October the NHTSA appointed a harsh critic of this deadly product to advise on its regulation. (For all known Tesla deaths see here.) Are major write-downs and refunds on the way, killing the company’s slight “claimed profitability”? Stay tuned! Meanwhile, Guidehouse Insights continues to rate Tesla dead last among autonomous competitors: Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market some time in 2022 (as is now expected), even if Tesla makes some of its own, other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone. Tesla Build Quality Remains Awful Meanwhile, Tesla build quality remains awful (it ranks second-to-last in the latest Consumer Reports reliability survey and in the bottom 10% of the latest J.D. Power survey) and its worst-rated Model Y faces current (or imminent) competition from the much better built electric Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Volkswagen ID.4, Ford Mustang Mach E, Nissan Ariya, Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, the great new BMW i4 and the premium version of Volkswagen’s ID.3 (in Europe), plus multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Audi e-tron (substantially improved for 2022!) and Porsche Taycan outsell the Models S & X (and the newly updated Tesla models with their dated exteriors and idiotic shifters & steering wheels won’t change this), while the spectacular new Mercedes EQS, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make the Tesla Model S look like a fast Yugo, while the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX does the same to the Model X. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as it will enter a dogfight of a market; in fact, Ford’s terrific 2022 all-electric F-150 Lightning now has nearly 200,000 retail reservations (plus many more fleet reservations), Rivian’s pick-up has gotten fantastic early reviews, and in January GM will introduce its electric Silverado. Regarding safety, as noted earlier in this letter, Tesla continues to deceptively sell its hugely dangerous so-called “Autopilot” system, which Consumer Reports has completely eviscerated; God only knows how many more people this monstrosity unleashed on public roads will kill despite the NTSB condemning it. Elsewhere in safety, in 2020 the Chinese government forced the recall of tens of thousands of Teslas for a dangerous suspension defect the company spent years trying to cover up, and now Tesla has been hit by a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. for the same defect. Tesla also knowingly sold cars that it knew were a fire hazard and did the same with solar systems, and after initially refusing to do so voluntarily, it was forced to recall a dangerously defective touchscreen. In other words, when it comes to the safety of customers and innocent bystanders, Tesla is truly one of the most vile companies on Earth. Meanwhile the massive number of lawsuits of all types against the company continues to escalate. So Here Is Tesla's Competition In Cars (Note: These Links Are Regularly Updated)... Porsche Taycan Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo Porsche Macan Electric SUV Officially Coming in 2023 Volkswagen ID.3 Headlines VW's Electrified Future Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen ID.Buzz electric van teased ahead of 2022 launch Volkswagen ID 6 to arrive with 435-mile range in 2023 Volkswagen Aero B: new electric Passat equivalent spied VW’s Cupra brand counts on performance for Born EV Cupra, VW brand to get entry-level battery-powered cars Audi e-tron Audi e-tron Sportback Audi E-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron confirmed for 2022 launch Audi previews long-range A6 e-tron EV Audi TT set to morph into all-electric crossover Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 spotted ahead of 2022 launch Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS: the first electric vehicle in the luxury class Mercedes EQS SUV takes shape Mercedes-Benz unveils EQE electric sedan with impressive 400-mile range Mercedes EQE SUV to rival BMW iX and Tesla Model X Mercedes EQC electric SUV available now in Europe & China Mercedes-Benz Launches the EQV, its First Fully-Electric Passenger Van Mercedes-Benz EQB Makes Its European Debut, US Sales Confirmed Mercedes-Benz unveils EQA electric SUV with 265 miles of range and ~$46,000 price Ford Mustang Mach-E Available Now Ford F-150 Lightning electric pick-up available 2022 Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to offer EV versions of Explorer, Aviator, ‘rugged SUVs' Volvo Polestar 2 Polestar 3 SUV Production Design Revealed. The US-built electric SUV will debut in 2022. Volvo XC40 Recharge Volvo C40 electric sedan to challenge Tesla Model 3, VW ID3 Polestar 3 will be an electric SUV that shares its all-new platform with next Volvo XC90 Chevy updates, expands Bolt EV family as price drops Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq Available Spring 2022 GMC ALL-ELECTRIC SUPERTRUCK HUMMER EV GM to build electric Silverado in Detroit with estimated range of more than 400 miles GMC to launch electric Hummer SUV in 2023 GM will offer 30 all-electric models globally by 2025 GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services Nissan vows to hop back on EV podium with Ariya Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now Nissan Unveils $18 Billion Electric-Vehicle Strategy BMW leads off EV offensive with iX3 BMW expands EV offerings with iX tech flagship and i4 sedan BMW i7 Confirmed for 2022 Launch 2022 BMW iX1 electric SUV spied Rivian R1T Is the Most Remarkable Pickup We’ve Ever Driven Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises 'heart-of-the-market SUV' from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Alfa Romeo is latest Stellantis brand to get all-electric future Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Maserati to launch electric sports car Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota’s Electric bZ4X Goes On Sale in Spring 2022 Toyota will have lineup of 30 full EVs by 2030; Lexus will be all-electric brand Opel sees electric Corsa as key EV entry 2021 Vauxhall Mokka revealed as EV with sharp looks, massive changes Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV offers range of power, battery sizes Electric Skoda Enyaq coupe to muscle-in on Tesla Model 3 Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals Nio to launch in five more European countries after Norway BYD will launch electric SUV in Europe The Lucid Air Achieves an Estimated EPA Range of 517 Miles on a Single Charge Bentley converting to electric-only brand All-electric Rolls-Royce Spectre to launch in 2023 – firm to be EV-only by 2030 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Meet the Canoo, a Subscription-Only EV Pod Coming in 2021 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Former Saab factory gets new life building solar-powered Sono Sion electric cars Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China... How VW Group plans to dominate China's EV market VW Goes Head-to-Head With Tesla in China With New ID.4 Crozz Electric SUV Volkswagen’s ID.3 EV to be produced by JVs with SAIC, FAW in 2021 2022 VW ID.6 Revealed With Room For Seven And Two Electric Motors China-built Audi e-tron rolls off production line in Changchun Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai Audi will build Q4 e-tron in China Audi Q5 e-tron Confirmed For China Audi in cooperation company for local electric car production with FAW FAW Hongqi starts selling electric SUV with 400km range for $32,000 FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025 BYD goes after market left open by Tesla with four cheaper models for budget-conscious buyers BYD said to launch premium NEV brand ‘Dolphin’ in 2022 Top of Form Bottom of Form Daimler & BYD launch DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market Geely announces premium EV brand Zeekr Geely, Mercedes-Benz launch $780 million JV to make electric smart-branded cars Mercedes styled Denza X 7-seat electric SUV to hit market Mercedes ‘makes mark’ with China-built EQC BMW, Great Wall to build new China plant for electric cars BAIC Goes Electric, & Establishes Itself as a Force in China’s New Energy Vehicle Future BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Ford MUSTANG MACH-E ROLLS OFF ASSEMBLY LINE IN CHINA FOR LOCAL CUSTOMERS Lexus to launch EV in China taking on VW and Tesla GAC Aion about to start volume production of 1,000-km range AION LX GAC Toyota to ramp up annual capacity by 400,000 NEVs GAC kicks off delivery of HYCAN 007 all-electric SUV Nio – Ready For Tomorrow Nio steps up plans for mass-market brand to compete with VW, Toyota Xpeng Motors sells multiple EV models SAIC-GM to build Ultium EV platform in Wuhan Chevrolet Menlo Electric Vehicle Launched in China Buick Introduces New VELITE 6 EV with Extended Range Buick Velite 7 EV And Velite 6 PHEV Launch In China Dongfeng launches the all-electric Voyah  PSA to accelerate rollout of electrified vehicles in China SAIC, Alibaba-backed EV brand IM begins presale of first model L7 Hyundai Motor Transforming Chongqing Factory into Electric Vehicle Plant Polestar said to plan China showroom expansion to compete with Tesla Jaguar Land Rover's Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production Renault reveals series urban e-SUV K-ZE for China Renault & Brilliance detail electric van lineup for China Renault forms China electric vehicle venture with JMCG Honda to start sales of new EV-branded vehicles in China in 2022 Geely launches new electric car brand 'Geometry' – will launch 10 EVs by 2025 Geely, Foxconn form partnership to build cars for other automakers Fiat Chrysler, Foxconn Team Up for Electric Vehicles Baidu to create an intelligent EV company with automaker Geely Leapmotor starts presale of C11 electric SUV on Jan. 1 2021 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weltmeister Chery Seres Enovate China's cute Ora R1 electric hatch offers a huge range for less than US$9,000 Singulato JAC Motors releases new product planning, including many NEVs Seat to make purely electric cars with JAC VW in China Iconiq Motors Hozon Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia CHJ Automotive begins to accept orders of Leading Ideal ONE Infiniti to launch Chinese-built EV in 2022 Human Horizons Chinese smartphone giant Xiaomi to launch electric car business with $10 billion investment Lifan Technology to roll out three EV models with swappable batteries in 2021 Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Autonomous Driving... Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Fiat Chrysler, Waymo expand self-driving partnership for passenger, delivery vehicles Waymo and Lyft partner to scale self-driving robotaxi service in Phoenix Volvo, Waymo partner to build self-driving vehicles Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car Renault, Nissan partner with Waymo for self-driving vehicles Geely’s Zeekr, Waymo partner on autonomous ride-hailing vehicle for the U.S. market Cruise and GM Team Up with Microsoft to Commercialize Self-Driving Vehicles Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle Honda launching Level 3 autonomous cars Volkswagen moves ahead with Autonomous Driving R&D for Mobility as a Service Volkswagen teams up with Microsoft to accelerate the development of automated driving VW taps Baidu's Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China Ford “Blue Cruise” ARGO AI AND FORD TO LAUNCH SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES ON LYFT NETWORK Hyundai and Kia Invest in Aurora Toyota, Denso form robotaxi partnership with Aurora Aptiv and Hyundai Motor Group complete formation of autonomous driving joint venture Amazon’s Zoox unveils electric robotaxi that can travel up to 75 mph Nvidia and Mercedes Team Up to Make Next-Gen Vehicles Daimler's heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way SoftBank, Toyota's self-driving car venture adds Mazda, Suzuki, Subaru Corp, Isuzu Daihatsu  Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars Mobileye and Geely to Offer Most Robust Driver Assistance Features Mobileye Starts Testing Self-Driving Vehicles in Germany Mobileye and NIO Partner to Bring Level 4 Autonomous Vehicles to Consumers Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Nissan gives Japan version of Infiniti Q50 hands-free highway driving Hyundai to start autonomous ride-sharing service in Calif. Pony.ai Receives Approval for Paid Autonomous Robotaxi Services in Beijing Baidu kicks off its robotaxi business, after getting the OK to charge fees in Beijing Toyota to join Baidu's open-source self-driving platform Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions Volvo will provide cars for Didi's self-driving test fleet BMW and Tencent to develop self-driving car technology together BMW, NavInfo bolster partnership in HD map service for autonomous cars in China GM Invests $300 M in Momenta to deliver self-driving technologies in China FAW Hongqi readies electric SUV offering Level 4 autonomous driving Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture Huawei teams up with BAIC BJEV, Changan, GAC to co-launch self-driving car brands GAC Aion, DiDi Autonomous Driving to co-develop driverless NEV model BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars Xpeng releases autonomous features for highway driving Nuro Becomes First Driverless Car Delivery Service in California Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks ZF autonomous EV venture names first customer Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4 Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public Mitsubishi Electric to Exhibit Autonomous-driving Technologies in New xAUTO Test Vehicle Apple acquires self-driving startup Drive.ai Motional to begin robotaxi testing with Hyundai Ioniq 5 in Los Angeles JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving Great Wall’s autonomous driving arm Haomo.ai receives investment from Meituan Plus.ai, Iveco to start L4 autonomous heavy-duty truck test in Europe, China T3 Mobility, IDRIVERPLUS to pilot Robotaxi operation in Suzhou with autonomous+manual model Here’s Where Tesla’s Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells... Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe How GM's Ultium Battery Will Help It Commit to an Electric Future GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems Ford, SK Innovation announce EV battery joint venture BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis, LG Energy Solution to form battery JV for N. American market Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Toyota to build plant in N.C. capable of making up to 1.2M batteries a year Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner UK companies AMTE Power and Britishvolt plan $4.9 billion investment in battery plants Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries Daimler Morrow Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Charging Networks... Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America is spending $2 billion building a high-speed U.S. charging network 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM to distribute up to 10 chargers to each of its dealerships starting early 2022 General Motors and EVgo Boost Build Plan for High Power Fast Chargers Across the US Circle K Owner Plans Electric-Car Charging Push in U.S., Canada 191 U.S. Porsche dealers are installing 350kw chargers ChargePoint to equip Daimler dealers with electric car chargers GM and Bechtel plan to build thousands of electric car charging stations across the US Ford introduces 12,000 station charging network, teams with Amazon on home installation Shell Plans To Deploy Around 500,000 Charging Points Globally By 2025 Petro-Canada Introduces Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta is rolling out a free charging network Ionity Europe E.ON and Virta launch one of the largest intelligent EV charging networks in Europe Volkswagen plans 36,000 charging points for electric cars throughout Europe Smatric has over 400 charging points in Austria Allego has hundreds of chargers in Europe PodPoint UK charging stations BP Chargemaster/Polar is building stations across the UK Instavolt is rolling out a UK charging network Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe Aral To Install Over 100 Ultra-Fast Chargers In Germany Deutsche Telekom launches installation of charging network for e-cars Total to build 1,000 high-powered charging points at 300 European service-stations NIO teams up with China’s State Grid to build battery charging, swapping stations Volkswagen-based CAMS launches supercharging stations in China Volkswagen, FAW Group, JAC Motors, Star Charge formally announce new EV charging JV BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales BP, Didi Jump on Electric-Vehicle Charging Bandwagon Evie rolls out ultrafast charging network in Australia Evie Networks To Install 42 Ultra-Fast Charging Sites In Australia And Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Storage Batteries... Panasonic Samsung LG BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Bosch Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Schneider Electric Sonnen Kyocera Generac Kokam NantEnergy Eaton Nissan Tesvolt Kreisel Leclanche Lockheed Martin EOS Energy Storage ESS UET electrIQ Power Belectric Stem ENGIE Redflow Renault Primus Power Simpliphi Power redT Energy Storage Murata Bluestorage Adara Blue Planet Tabuchi Electric Aggreko Orison Moixa Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric Schmid 24M Ecoult Innolith LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor Thanks and Happy New Year, Mark Spiegel Updated on Jan 3, 2022, 11:25 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkJan 3rd, 2022

City green lights Two Trees’ Williamsburg waterfront plan

The New York City Council has approved the revised River Ring proposal for the Williamsburg waterfront, ushering in a mixed-use development that will provide 263 residences for low- and middle-income New Yorkers, out of 1,050 new units, and will be anchored by a waterfront park. The final proposal includes funding the construction... The post City green lights Two Trees’ Williamsburg waterfront plan appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. The New York City Council has approved the revised River Ring proposal for the Williamsburg waterfront, ushering in a mixed-use development that will provide 263 residences for low- and middle-income New Yorkers, out of 1,050 new units, and will be anchored by a waterfront park. The final proposal includes funding the construction of approximately 150 new units in the Williamsburg community designated as affordable homes for senior residents. The Council vote follows three years of community engagement with local residents, business owners and stakeholders across the city, and recent approvals during the land use process by Brooklyn Community Board 1, Borough President Eric Adams, and the New York City Planning Commission. Two Trees Management expects to begin construction in 2024.  Key highlights of Two Trees Management’s final River Ring Waterfront Master Plan include: Significant new affordable housing, including 263 permanently affordable apartments (out of 1050 total on-site homes), which feature the same design and amenities as market rate units, available at an average of 60% AMI with some units as low as 40% AMI. More than 150 new units of affordable housing for seniors, to be built in Community Board 1 on land funded by Two Trees. A 3-acre world-class public park to be financed and maintained by Two Trees Management, plus an additional 3 acres designated for previously unavailable in-water recreational opportunities, including kayaking, marine ecology, education, tidal wetlands and an accessible beach.$100 million investment in resiliency infrastructure and open space also that protects hundreds of properties upland and up-river from River Ring.A state-of-the-art, 50,000 square foot YMCA facility featuring a full-service community swim program that includes free swimming lessons for second grade students in CB1.2,000 construction jobs and more than 500 permanent jobs with a subsidized training program and local hiring, in collaboration with local workforce development partners. $1.75 million in funding for community initiatives, including a new environmental benefits fund to help retrofit neighborhood buildings and a major open space planning study of the community district to connect new and existing parks.Green technology and sustainable design, including a commitment to all-electric buildings and the development of on-site wastewater treatment.Ongoing meaningful dialogue with community partners to bring new access to the waterfront and support environmental justice and education. “After more than two years of conversations with residents, stakeholders and leaders, we’re grateful to Council Member Levin, the Zoning Subcommittee, and the Land Use Committee for their support of a precedent-setting project,” said Jed Walentas, Principal of Two Trees Management.  “River Ring will change how New Yorkers interact with our waterfront while also increasing affordable housing, providing a new model for resiliency, building a new public park and investing in community programs and spaces. We will bring the same commitment and dedication to River Ring that we’ve brought to the Domino redevelopment and Domino Park. Taken together, these two projects will provide approximately 1,000 units of affordable housing integrated within new, world-class buildings. Thanks to Council Member Levin, we have also committed to creating an acquisition fund to support the development of over 150 units of senior housing within Community Board 1. And by connecting River Ring and Domino, we will finally fill the missing link in North Brooklyn’s waterfront greenway.” The River Ring Waterfront Master Plan, designed by Bjarke Ingels Group (BIG) and James Corner Field Operations (Field Operations), will enhance the connectivity of the public waterfront, reinstate natural habitats, elevate the standard for urban waterfront resiliency, and transform the way New Yorkers interact with the East River.  In total, the River Ring Plan will create approximately 3 acres of public open space and another 3 acres of protected in-water access, including natural habitat — far beyond the 0.7 acres required under zoning regulations. Combined with the neighboring Domino Park, Two Trees is poised to deliver more than 8 acres above the required amount of accessible waterfront public space along the East River waterfront in Williamsburg. The site features a pair of mixed-income residential buildings designed by BIG. The project is designed around cutting-edge open space designed by Field Operations (including three acres of protected water for aquatic uses) and ecological infrastructure that will increase resilience for the site and surrounding area. The project’s public and community spaces — which have been tailored through direct community input — will introduce a first-of-its-kind protected public beach and in-water areas for New Yorkers to enjoy an array of aquatic activities including boating, fishing, tide pool exploration and potentially in the future: swimming.  The introduction of a public waterfront park at the former industrial site, directly north of Two Trees’ award-winning Domino development, will help to complete a stretch of continuous waterfront access that will eventually extend from South Williamsburg to Greenpoint.  “The River Ring project is unlike almost any waterfront development proposal, and Two Trees is pioneering how we can build innovative public spaces in a way that directly confronts the impacts of climate change,” said Cortney Koenig Worrall, CEO and President, Waterfront Alliance. “The project promises to transform how New Yorkers relate to water while protecting communities from rising waters using technologies that honor the local habitat, raising the bar for how we as a city can build safety and responsibly along our waterfronts.” “The River Ring proposal creates desperately needed open space for New Yorkers, delivers critical support for the city’s resilience infrastructure, and brings online significant affordable housing. That’s a triple-win for New York City. We thank the City Council for helping to realize this transformative vision which addresses multiple challenges for the city head on while delivering major investments for the local community,” said Adam Ganser, Executive Director, New Yorkers for Parks. “The River Ring project is a prime model for how cities can get transformative projects moving in the right direction,” said Tom Wright, President and CEO of Regional Plan Association. “From the beginning it was informed by local engagement and feedback with resiliency and the community in mind. When it becomes reality, it will create new affordable housing and a three-acre resilient waterfront park in Brooklyn – which will transform the way New Yorkers interact with the water. We look forward to seeing this become reality – and become the standard for addressing communities’ development at the water’s edge.” RESILIENCY AND HABITAT RESTORATION Borrowing from models used in places like the Netherlands that have come to terms with a wetter future, the River Ring plan embraces the river instead of building walls and hard surfaces that accelerate storm surge and push it to adjacent riverfronts. Waterfront infrastructure and open space will feature berms, breakwaters, marshes and wetlands designed to increase resilience by taking the energy out of storm surges, reducing flooding, providing more room to absorb water and slow down its retreat, reducing erosion risk, and better protecting the local waterfront in the face of habitat loss and climate change. The plan also includes a new tidal basin capable of holding four million gallons of water that is designed to flood, mitigating damage from receding waters. Additionally, the development expands the shoreline with various wave breaks, attenuating the impacts from severe storms, sustaining intertidal habitat and creating calmer waters to promote in-water access and nurture habitat. The new waterfront park will enable the restoration of salt marshes, wetlands, oyster beds and tidal flats, enriching wildlife and habitat while creating protected areas that will enable more in-water engagement and recreational uses and provide ecological education to the community.  PARK DESIGN AND COMMUNITY INPUT Designed by Field Operations, the waterfront park features a circular esplanade extending into the East River that promotes access in and around the river, as well as an amphitheater, large sandy beach, tidal pools, salt marsh, and a fishing pier. This ring connects to the park’s breakwaters which provide protection and form a series of nature trails that extend out to the historic concrete caissons. A boating cove at North 1st Street includes a sandy beach for boat access surrounded by wetlands and is adjacent to a series of community kiosks and a children’s natural play area. The community kiosks, totaling approximately 5,000 SF, will be made available to local community partners through a request-for-proposal process. Potential users include kayak rental, educational partners, artist installations and other waterfront related uses. These features were inspired by a series of community charrettes convened by Two Trees Management, where there was a strong consensus for the park to engage the river with places to touch the water, for places of respite and access to nature, and a place that is a model for resiliency. Like Domino Park, the new park will be maintained in perpetuity by Two Trees Management and will operate based on NYC Parks Department rules and regulations. “The past two years have revealed an increased appreciation of parks and public spaces, and hopefully a shift to understanding them as essential infrastructure. River Ring embodies this way of thinking as an adaptive nature-based solution that rethinks regulatory frameworks and design standards,” says Lisa Switkin, Senior Principal at James Corner Field Operations. “The park showcases integrated co-benefits, designed to increase resilience and waterfront access, provide diverse park experiences and recreational opportunities, restore habitat, and change the mindset from living against water to living with water.” MIXED-USE BUILDING PLAN The masterplan includes two Bjarke Ingels Group-designed mixed-use buildings with 1,050 total units of housing, 263 of which will be below-market rate (made available to applicants with low AMIs), a new 50,000-square-foot YMCA, 30,000 square feet of neighborhood retail space and 57,000 square feet for office space. The new YMCA will feature a waterfront aquatic center that will offer subsidized swim lessons for community youth in need. The residential towers are oriented to limit view obstruction from the neighborhood and maximize the Metropolitan Avenue view corridor. Blending the towers with the landscape softens the relationship between building and park, forming a gateway that welcomes the community to the water. “With the River Ring we close one of the last remaining gaps in the continuous transformation of the Williamsburg waterfront into a post-industrial urban park scape. Rather than stopping at the hard edge of the old dock, Metropolitan avenue is split into a pedestrian loop extending all the way into the river, connecting the dots of the concrete caissons to form an urban archipelago of recreative islands while protecting a beach with tidal pools and wetlands,” said Bjarke Ingels, Founding Partner & Creative Director. “The radical transformation of Copenhagen’s port into a swimmable extension of the public space that we helped pioneer two decades ago, now seems to be knocking at the door in Williamsburg and the entire East River. The River Ring will be the first of many invitations for New Yorkers to dip their toes in the water.” SITE HISTORY The site was once home to the No. 6 fuel oil storage complex for Con Edison North First Street Terminal. The above ground fuel oil storage tanks were removed when the terminal was decommissioned. The existing site also includes a number of structures seaward of the bulkhead line that extend to the pierhead line, which are in varying states of repair. Two Trees recently purchased the 3.5 acre site from Con Edison in an auction for $150 million.  The post City green lights Two Trees’ Williamsburg waterfront plan appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklyDec 20th, 2021

Tesla’s “Rounding Error” Of Sales Improvement

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended October 31, 2021, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Biggest Bubble In Modern Stock Market History We remain short the biggest bubble in modern stock market history, Tesla Inc. (TSLA), which now has a completely absurd diluted […] Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended October 31, 2021, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Biggest Bubble In Modern Stock Market History We remain short the biggest bubble in modern stock market history, Tesla Inc. (TSLA), which now has a completely absurd diluted market cap of $1.25 trillion. Perhaps this ridiculousness is best shown graphically, courtesy of @MichalStupavsky and @AlbertBridgeCap; note that both these graphics were created hundreds of billions of dollars ago in Tesla market cap, and when viewing them please keep in mind that Tesla’s share of the world auto market is only around 1.1% (yes, one POINT one percent): And yet at some point when momentum-riding Tesla bulls (or, for that matter, bears) least expect it, TSLA will recouple with “reality,” and that’s why I continue to maintain a core short position. So here’s “reality”… Tesla has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of electric car technology, while existing automakers—unlike Tesla­—have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably. Excluding sunsetting emission credit sales Tesla is barely profitable. Growth in sequential unit demand for Tesla’s cars is at a crawl relative to expectations. Elon Musk is a pathological liar who under the terms of his SEC settlement cannot deny having committed securities fraud. Tesla's Q3 Deliveries In October Tesla reported Q3 deliveries of 241,000 cars, 18,000 more than Wall Street’s “official” consensus and around 11,000 more than the 230,000-delivery “whisper number.” These (and even the entire 40,000-unit gain over Q2) are rounding errors for an auto company trading at even one-tenth of Tesla’s valuation. If in any quarter GM or VW or Toyota sold 2.04 million vehicles instead of 2 million or 1.96 million, no one would pay the slightest bit of attention to the difference. Seeing as Tesla is now being valued at nearly sixteen GMs, it’s time to start looking at its relatively tiny numerical sequential sales growth, rather than Wall Street’s sell-side hype of “percentage off a small base.” In other words, if you want to be valued at a giant multiple of “the big boys,” you should be treated as a big boy. In fact, a favorite hype story from Tesla fans has been “the China market” and its “record” number of 73,659 Q3 deliveries there. Let’s put this in perspective: this was only around 4000 more cars than in Q1 and only around 11,000 more than in Q2—these are “growth” rounding errors. And that “record” Q3 China quarter gave it just 1.5% of the overall passenger vehicle market and just 11% of the BEV market, and it had so much excess capacity that it exported tens of thousands of cars to Europe. And now in October, Tesla sales in China reportedly fell back to just 12,000 units. Remember when Musk claimed that Tesla’s Chinese domestic demand alone would need multiple factories to satisfy? Ah, the good old days! One likely way Tesla was able to post an upside surprise in Q3 deliveries was because competitors’ production (and thus inventories) were at the lowest level in decades due to the massive chip shortage, thereby eliminating a number of “Tesla alternatives.” Meanwhile, Tesla had record production because Musk (a notorious “corner-cutter”) was apparently willing to substitute untested, non-auto-grade chips for the more durable chips he couldn’t get; please see my Twitter post about this. Rounding Error As for the demand implications of the new U.S. EV tax credit (assuming it passes in its current form—which, by the way, benefits GM & Ford’s union-made cars with a $12,500 per-car credit vs. just $8000 for each Tesla), please see my Twitter thread as to why—relative to Tesla’s insane valuation and its fans’ expectations—it will likely result in just another “rounding error” of sales improvement. In its Q3 earnings report (released in October), Tesla claimed it made around $1.3 billion in free cash flow (defined as operating cash flow less capex). However, this number appears to be entirely due to working capital adjustments and not from the business itself. Let me explain: Tesla claimed operating cash flow of around $3.2 billion for the quarter, but this came with the benefit of accounts payable increasing by $702 million, receivables declining by $167 million and accrued liabilities up by $665 million while (detrimentally) prepaid expenses increased by $144 million. Adjusting for that massive net working capital benefit, operating cash flow was only a bit over $1.8 billion and with capex at $1.8 billion it means Tesla’s Q3 free cash flow was essentially zero; i.e., it’s a horrible business. Also in its Q3 report Tesla claimed it made around $1.45 billion in net income after excluding $279 million of pure-profit emission credit sales (excluded because they’ll almost entirely disappear some time next year when other automakers will have enough EVs of their own), and after adding back a $50 million Bitcoin write-down. However, that earnings number also includes what I estimate to be Tesla’s usual $300 million or so in unsustainably low warranty provisioning, and after adjusting for that and assuming no other fraudulent accounting, Tesla only earned around $1.06/share, which annualizes to $4.24. An auto industry PE multiple of 10x would thus make TSLA worth around $42/share (admittedly, more than the “$0” I once expected), while a “growth multiple” of 20x would value it at $84, which is almost a 93% discount to October’s closing price of $1114. And before you tell me that a 100% premium to the industry’s PE ratio isn’t enough, keep in mind that—as noted earlier—Tesla’s sequential unit growth is an auto industry rounding error. In fact, one could argue that Tesla’s multiple should carry a discount, considering the massive legal and financial liabilities continually generated by its pathologically lying CEO. Meanwhile Tesla continues to sell (and book cash flow, if not accounting revenue from) its fraudulent & dangerous so-called “Full Self Driving.” In a sane regulatory environment Tesla having done this for five years now would be considered “consumer fraud,” and indeed the regulatory tide may finally be turning, as in August two U.S. Senators demanded an FTC investigation and in October the NHTSA appointed a harsh critic of this deadly product to advise on its regulation. (For all known Tesla deaths see TeslaDeaths.com.) Are major write-downs and refunds on the way, killing the company’s slight “claimed profitability”? Stay tuned! And remember, the 2021 overview from Guidehouse Insights rates Tesla dead last among autonomous competitors: Proprietary Battery Technology Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market some time in 2022 (as is now expected), their manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone. Meanwhile, the quality of the Model Y—is awful, and that car faces current (or imminent) competition from the much better built electric Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQA, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Volkswagen ID.4, Ford Mustang Mach E, Nissan Ariya, Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2 and the premium version of Volkswagen’s ID.3 (in Europe), and later this year from the BMW i4, plus multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Audi e-tron and Porsche Taycan outsell the Models S & X (and the newly updated Tesla models with their dated exteriors and idiotic shifters & steering wheels won’t change this), while the spectacular new Mercedes EQS, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make the Tesla Model S look like a fast Yugo, while the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX does the same to the Model X. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as it will enter a dogfight of a market; in fact, in May Ford formally introduced its terrific new all-electric F-150 Lightning which now has over 150,000 reservations, Rivian’s pick-up has gotten fantastic early reviews, and in January at CES GM will introduce its electric Silverado. Meanwhile, Tesla quality ranks 30th among 33 brands in the latest J.D. Power dependability survey… …and second-to-last in the latest Consumer Reports reliability survey: …while the most recent What Car? survey shows similar results with Tesla finishing #29 out of 31, and now quality is slipping in China. Regarding safety, as noted earlier in this letter, Tesla continues to deceptively sell its hugely dangerous so-called “Autopilot” system, which Consumer Reports has completely eviscerated; God only knows how many more people this monstrosity unleashed on public roads will kill, despite the NTSB condemning it. Elsewhere in safety, in 2020 the Chinese government forced the recall of tens of thousands of Teslas for a dangerous suspension defect the company spent years trying to cover up, and now Tesla has been hit by a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. for the same defect. Tesla also knowingly sold cars that it knew were a fire hazard and did the same with solar systems, and after initially refusing to do so voluntarily, it was forced to recall a dangerously defective touchscreen. In other words, when it comes to the safety of customers and innocent bystanders, Tesla is truly one of the most vile companies on Earth. Meanwhile the massive number of lawsuits of all types against the company continues to escalate. So Here Is Tesla’s Competition In Cars (Note: These Links Are Regularly Updated)... Porsche Taycan Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo Porsche Macan Electric SUV Officially Coming in 2023 Volkswagen ID.3 Headlines VW's Electrified Future Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen ID 6 to arrive with 435-mile range in 2023 Volkswagen Aero B: new electric Passat equivalent spied VW’s Cupra brand counts on performance for Born EV Cupra, VW brand to get entry-level battery-powered cars Audi e-tron Audi e-tron Sportback Audi E-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron confirmed for 2022 launch Audi previews long-range A6 e-tron EV Audi TT set to morph into all-electric crossover Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 spotted ahead of 2022 launch Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis aims to go all-electric from 2025 Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS: the first electric vehicle in the luxury class Mercedes EQS SUV takes shape Mercedes-Benz unveils EQE electric sedan with impressive 400-mile range Mercedes EQE SUV to rival BMW iX and Tesla Model X Mercedes EQC electric SUV available now in Europe & China Mercedes-Benz Launches the EQV, its First Fully-Electric Passenger Van Mercedes-Benz EQB Makes Its European Debut, US Sales Confirmed Mercedes-Benz unveils EQA electric SUV with 265 miles of range and ~$46,000 price Ford Mustang Mach-E Available Now Ford F-150 Lightning electric pick-up available 2022 Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to offer EV versions of Explorer, Aviator, ‘rugged SUVs' Volvo Polestar 2 Volvo XC40 Recharge Volvo C40 electric sedan to challenge Tesla Model 3, VW ID3 Polestar 3 will be an electric SUV that shares its all-new platform with next Volvo XC90 Chevy updates, expands Bolt EV family as price drops Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq Available Spring 2022 GMC ALL-ELECTRIC SUPERTRUCK HUMMER EV GM to build electric Silverado in Detroit with estimated range of more than 400 miles GMC to launch electric Hummer SUV in 2023 GM will offer 30 all-electric models globally by 2025 GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services Nissan vows to hop back on EV podium with Ariya Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now BMW leads off EV offensive with iX3 BMW expands EV offerings with iX tech flagship and i4 sedan 2022 BMW iX1 electric SUV spied BMW 3-series EV coming Rivian R1T Is the Most Remarkable Pickup We’ve Ever Driven Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises 'heart-of-the-market SUV' from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Alfa Romeo is latest Stellantis brand to get all-electric future Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Maserati to launch electric sports car Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota's bZ4X EV gets 300-mile range, steer by wire; first of 7 BEVs by 2025 Opel sees electric Corsa as key EV entry 2021 Vauxhall Mokka revealed as EV with sharp looks, massive changes Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV offers range of power, battery sizes Electric Skoda Enyaq coupe to muscle-in on Tesla Model 3 Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals Nio to launch in five more European countries after Norway BYD will launch electric SUV in Europe The Lucid Air Achieves an Estimated EPA Range of 517 Miles on a Single Charge Bentley converting to electric-only brand All-electric Rolls-Royce Spectre to launch in 2023 – firm to be EV-only by 2030 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Meet the Canoo, a Subscription-Only EV Pod Coming in 2021 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Former Saab factory gets new life building solar-powered Sono Sion electric cars Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China... How VW Group plans to dominate China's EV market VW Goes Head-to-Head With Tesla in China With New ID.4 Crozz Electric SUV Volkswagen’s ID.3 EV to be produced by JVs with SAIC, FAW in 2021 2022 VW ID.6 Revealed With Room For Seven And Two Electric Motors China-built Audi e-tron rolls off production line in Changchun Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai Audi will build Q4 e-tron in China Audi Q5 e-tron Confirmed For China Audi in cooperation company for local electric car production with FAW FAW Hongqi starts selling electric SUV with 400km range for $32,000 FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025 BYD goes after market left open by Tesla with four cheaper models for budget-conscious buyers BYD said to launch premium NEV brand ‘Dolphin’ in 2022 Top of Form Bottom of Form Daimler & BYD launch DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market Geely announces premium EV brand Zeekr Geely, Mercedes-Benz launch $780 million JV to make electric smart-branded cars Mercedes styled Denza X 7-seat electric SUV to hit market Mercedes ‘makes mark’ with China-built EQC BMW, Great Wall to build new China plant for electric cars BAIC Goes Electric, & Establishes Itself as a Force in China’s New Energy Vehicle Future BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV Toyota, BYD will jointly develop electric vehicles for China Lexus to launch EV in China taking on VW and Tesla GAC Aion about to start volume production of 1,000-km range AION LX GAC Toyota to ramp up annual capacity by 400,000 NEVs GAC kicks off delivery of HYCAN 007 all-electric SUV Nio – Ready For Tomorrow Nio steps up plans for mass-market brand to compete with VW, Toyota Xpeng Motors sells multiple EV models SAIC-GM to build Ultium EV platform in Wuhan Chevrolet Menlo Electric Vehicle Launched in China Buick Launches VELITE 6 PLUS MAV Electric Vehicle in China Buick Velite 7 EV And Velite 6 PHEV Launch In China Dongfeng launches the all-electric Voyah  PSA to accelerate rollout of electrified vehicles in China SAIC, Alibaba-backed EV brand IM begins presale of first model L7 Hyundai Motor Transforming Chongqing Factory into Electric Vehicle Plant Polestar said to plan China showroom expansion to compete with Tesla Jaguar Land Rover's Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production Renault reveals series urban e-SUV K-ZE for China Renault & Brilliance detail electric van lineup for China Renault forms China electric vehicle venture with JMCG Honda to start sales of new EV-branded vehicles in China in 2022 Geely launches new electric car brand 'Geometry' – will launch 10 EVs by 2025 Geely, Foxconn form partnership to build cars for other automakers Fiat Chrysler, Foxconn Team Up for Electric Vehicles Baidu to create an intelligent EV company with automaker Geely Leapmotor starts presale of C11 electric SUV on Jan. 1 2021 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weltmeister Chery Seres Enovate China's cute Ora R1 electric hatch offers a huge range for less than US$9,000 Singulato JAC Motors releases new product planning, including many NEVs Seat to make purely electric cars with JAC VW in China Iconiq Motors Hozon Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia CHJ Automotive begins to accept orders of Leading Ideal ONE Infiniti to launch Chinese-built EV in 2022 Human Horizons Chinese smartphone giant Xiaomi to launch electric car business with $10 billion investment Lifan Technology to roll out three EV models with swappable batteries in 2021 Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Autonomous Driving... Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Fiat Chrysler, Waymo expand self-driving partnership for passenger, delivery vehicles Waymo and Lyft partner to scale self-driving robotaxi service in Phoenix Volvo, Waymo partner to build self-driving vehicles Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car Renault, Nissan partner with Waymo for self-driving vehicles Cruise and GM Team Up with Microsoft to Commercialize Self-Driving Vehicles Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle Honda launching Level 3 autonomous cars Volkswagen moves ahead with Autonomous Driving R&D for Mobility as a Service Volkswagen teams up with Microsoft to accelerate the development of automated driving VW taps Baidu's Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China Ford's electric Mustang will offer hands-free driving technology in 2021 ARGO AI AND FORD TO LAUNCH SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES ON LYFT NETWORK BY END OF 2021 Hyundai and Kia Invest in Aurora Toyota, Denso form robotaxi partnership with Aurora Aptiv and Hyundai Motor Group complete formation of autonomous driving joint venture Amazon’s Zoox unveils electric robotaxi that can travel up to 75 mph Nvidia and Mercedes Team Up to Make Next-Gen Vehicles Daimler's heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way SoftBank, Toyota's self-driving car venture adds Mazda, Suzuki, Subaru Corp, Isuzu Daihatsu  Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars Mobileye and Geely to Offer Most Robust Driver Assistance Features Mobileye Starts Testing Self-Driving Vehicles in Germany Mobileye and NIO Partner to Bring Level 4 Autonomous Vehicles to Consumers Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology AutoX, backed by Alibaba Nissan gives Japan version of Infiniti Q50 hands-free highway driving Hyundai to start autonomous ride-sharing service in Calif. Pony.ai raises $462 million in Toyota-led funding Baidu kicks off trial operation of Apollo robotaxi in Changsha Toyota to join Baidu's open-source self-driving platform Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions Volvo will provide cars for Didi's self-driving test fleet BMW and Tencent to develop self-driving car technology together BMW, NavInfo bolster partnership in HD map service for autonomous cars in China GM Invests $300 M in Momenta to deliver self-driving technologies in China FAW Hongqi readies electric SUV offering Level 4 autonomous driving Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture Huawei teams up with BAIC BJEV, Changan, GAC to co-launch self-driving car brands GAC Aion, DiDi Autonomous Driving to co-develop driverless NEV model BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars Xpeng releases autonomous features for highway driving Nuro Becomes First Driverless Car Delivery Service in California Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks ZF autonomous EV venture names first customer Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4 Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public Mitsubishi Electric to Exhibit Autonomous-driving Technologies in New xAUTO Test Vehicle Apple acquires self-driving startup Drive.ai Motional to begin robotaxi testing with Hyundai Ioniq 5 in Los Angeles JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving Here’s Where Tesla’s Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells... Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe How GM's Ultium Battery Will Help It Commit to an Electric Future Ultium (General Motors & LG joint venture) GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems Ford, SK Innovation announce EV battery joint venture BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis, LG Energy Solution to form battery JV for N. American market Toyota to build U.S. battery plant Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner UK companies AMTE Power and Britishvolt plan $4.9 billion investment in battery plants Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries Daimler Morrow Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Charging Networks... Electrify America is spending $2 billion building a high-speed U.S. charging network GM to distribute up to 10 chargers to each of its dealerships starting early 2022 GM, EVgo partner to expand U.S. charging network Circle K Owner Plans Electric-Car Charging Push in U.S., Canada 191 U.S. Porsche dealers are installing 350kw chargers ChargePoint to equip Daimler dealers with electric car chargers GM and Bechtel plan to build thousands of electric car charging stations across the US Ford introduces 12,000 station charging network, teams with Amazon on home installation Shell Plans To Deploy Around 500,000 Charging Points Globally By 2025 Petro-Canada Introduces Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta is rolling out a free charging network Ionity Europe E.ON and Virta launch one of the largest intelligent EV charging networks in Europe Volkswagen plans 36,000 charging points for electric cars throughout Europe Smatric has over 400 charging points in Austria Allego has hundreds of chargers in Europe PodPoint UK charging stations BP Chargemaster/Polar is building stations across the UK Instavolt is rolling out a UK charging network Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe Aral To Install Over 100 Ultra-Fast Chargers In Germany Deutsche Telekom launches installation of charging network for e-cars Total to build 1,000 high-powered charging points at 300 European service-stations NIO teams up with China’s State Grid to build battery charging, swapping stations Volkswagen-based CAMS launches supercharging stations in China Volkswagen, FAW Group, JAC Motors, Star Charge formally announce new EV charging JV BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales BP, Didi Jump on Electric-Vehicle Charging Bandwagon Evie rolls out ultrafast charging network in Australia Evie Networks To Install 42 Ultra-Fast Charging Sites In Australia And Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Storage Batteries... Panasonic Samsung LG BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Bosch Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Schneider Electric Sonnen Kyocera Generac Kokam NantEnergy Eaton Nissan Tesvolt Kreisel Leclanche Lockheed Martin EOS Energy Storage ESS UET electrIQ Power Belectric Stem ENGIE Redflow Renault Primus Power Simpliphi Power redT Energy Storage Murata Bluestorage Adara Blue Planet Tabuchi Electric Aggreko Orison Moixa Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric Schmid 24M Ecoult Innolith LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor   Thanks and stay healthy, Mark Spiegel Updated on Nov 1, 2021, 11:19 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkNov 1st, 2021

Futures Surge On Debt Ceiling Reprieve, Slide In Energy Prices

Futures Surge On Debt Ceiling Reprieve, Slide In Energy Prices The nausea-inducing rollercoaster in the stock market continued on Thursday, when US index futures continued their violent Wednesday reversal - the biggest since March - and surged with Nasdaq futures up more than 1%, hitting a session high, as Chinese technology stocks rebounded from a record low, investors embraced progress on the debt-ceiling impasse in Washington, a dip in oil prices eased worries of higher inflation and concerns eased about the European energy crisis fueled a risk-on mood. At 7:30am ET, S&P futures were up 44 points or 1.00% and Dow futures were up 267 points or 0.78%. Oil tumbled as much as $2, dragging breakevens and nominal yields lower, while the dollar dipped and bitcoin traded around $54,000. Wednesday's reversal started after Mitch McConnell on Wednesday floated a plan to support an extension of the federal debt ceiling into December, potentially heading off a historic default, a proposal which Democrats have reportedly agreed to after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer suggested an agreement would be in place by this morning. While the deal is good news for markets worried about an imminent default, it only kicks the can to December when the drama and brinksmanship may run again. Markets have been rocked in the past month by worries about the global energy crisis, elevated inflation, reduced stimulus and slower growth. Meanwhile, the prospect of a deal to boost the U.S. debt limit into December is easing concern over political bickering, while Friday’s payrolls report may shed light on the the Federal Reserve’s timeline to cut bond purchases. “We have several things that we are watching right now -- certainly the debt ceiling is one of them and that’s been contributing to the recent volatility,” Tracie McMillion, head of global asset allocation strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said on Bloomberg Television. “But we look for these 5% corrections to add money to the equity markets.” Tech and FAAMG stocks including Apple (AAPL US +1%), Nvidia (NVDA +2%), Microsoft (MSFT US +0.9%), Tesla (TSLA US 0.8%) led the charge in premarket trading amid a dip in 10-year Treasury yields on Thursday, helped by a slide in energy prices on the back of Putin's Wednesday announcement that Russia could ramp up nat gas deliveries to Europe, something it still has clearly not done. Perhaps sensing that not all is at Putin said, after plunging on Wednesday UK nat gas futures (NBP) from 407p/therm to a low of 209, prices have ominously started to rise again. As oil fell, energy stocks including Chevron, Exxon Mobil and APA led declines with falls between 0.6% and 2.1%. Here are some of the other big movers today: Twitter (TWTR US) shares rise 2% in U.S. premarket trading after it agreed to sell MoPub to AppLovin for $1.05 billion in cash Levi Strauss (LEVI US) rises 4% in U.S. premarket trading after it boosted its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year; the guidance beat the average analyst estimate NRX Pharmaceuticals (NRXP US) drops in U.S. premarket trading after Relief Therapeutics sued the company, alleging breach of a collaboration pact Osmotica Pharmaceuticals (OSMT US) declined 28% in premarket trading after launching an offering of shares Rocket Lab USA (RKLB US) shares rose in Wednesday postmarket trading after the company announced it has been selected to launch NASA’s Advanced Composite Solar Sail System, or ACS3, on the Electron launch vehicle U.S. Silica Holdings (SLCA US) rose 7% Wednesday postmarket after it started a review of strategic alternatives for its Industrial & Specialty Products segment, including a potential sale or separation Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT US) climbed 2.6% in Wednesday after hours trading while Sage Therapeutics (SAGE US) dropped 3.9% after Jefferies analyst Akash Tewari kicked off his biotech sector coverage On the geopolitical front, a senior U.S. official said President Joe Biden’s plans to meet virtually with his Chinese counterpart before the end of the year. Tensions are escalating between the two countries, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken criticizing China’s recent military maneuvers around Taiwan. European equities rebounded, with the Stoxx 600 index surging as much as 1.3% boosted by news that the European Central Bank was said to be studying a new bond-buying program as emergency programs are phased out. Also boosting sentiment on Thursday, ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said that investors shouldn’t expect premature interest-rate increases from the central bank. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Iberdrola shares rise as much as 6.8% after an upgrade at BofA, and as Spanish utilities climbed following a report that the Ministry for Ecological Transition may suspend or modify the mechanism that reduces the income received by hydroelectric, nuclear and some renewables in relation to gas prices. Hermes shares climb as much as 3.8%, the most since February, after HSBC says “there isn’t much to worry about” from a possible slowdown in mainland China or questions over trend sustainability in the U.S. Edenred shares gain as much as 5.2%, their best day since Nov. 9, after HSBC upgrades the voucher company to buy from hold, saying that Edenred, along with Experian, offers faster recurring revenue growth than the rest of the business services sector. Valeo shares gain as much as 4.9% and is Thursday’s best performer in the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts index; Citi raised to neutral from sell as broker updated its model ahead of 3Q results. Sika shares rise as much as 4.2% after company confirms 2021 guidance, which Baader said was helpful amid market concerns of sequentially declining margins due to rising raw material prices. Centrica shares rise as much as 3.6% as Morgan Stanley upgrades Centrica to overweight from equalweight, saying the utility provider will add market share as smaller U.K. companies fail due to the spike in wholesale energy prices. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rallied, boosted by a rebound in Hong Kong-listed technology shares and optimism over the progress made toward a U.S. debt-ceiling accord. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.3%, on track for its biggest jump since Aug. 24. Alibaba, Tencent and Meituan were among the biggest contributors to the benchmark’s advance. Equity gauges in Hong Kong and Taiwan led a broad regional gain, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 also rebounded from its longest losing run since 2009. Thursday’s rally in Asia came after U.S. stocks closed higher overnight on a possible deal to boost the debt ceiling into December. Focus now shifts to the reopening of mainland China markets on Friday following the Golden Week holiday, and also the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due that day. READ: China Tech Gauge Posts Best Day Since August After Touching Lows “Risk off sentiment has persisted due to a number of negative factors, but worry over some of these issues has been alleviated for the near term,” said Shogo Maekawa, a strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Tokyo. “One is that concern over stagflation has abated, with oil prices pulling back.” Sentiment toward risks assets was also supported as a senior U.S. official said President Joe Biden plans to meet virtually with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the end of the year. Of note, holders of Evergrande-guaranteed Jumbo Fortune bonds have yet to receive payment; the holders next step would be to request payment from Evergrande. The maturity of the bond in question was Sunday October 3rd, with a Monday October 4th effective due data, though the bond does have a five-day grace period only in the event that payment failure is due to an administrative/technical error. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.7% to close at 7,256.70. All subgauges finished the day higher, with the exception of energy stocks as Asian peers tumbled with a retreat in crude oil prices.  Collins Foods was among the top performers after the company signed an agreement to become KFC’s corporate franchisee in the Netherlands. Whitehaven tumbled, dropping the most for a session since June 17.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 13,104.61. Oil extended its decline from a seven-year high as U.S. stockpiles grew more than expected, and European natural gas prices tumbled on signals from Russia it may increase supplies to the continent. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury was 1.526%, little changed on the day after erasing a 2.4bp increase; bunds outperformed by ~1.5bp, gilts by less than 1bp; long-end outperformance flattened 2s10s, 5s30s by ~0.5bp each. Treasuries pared losses during European morning as fuel prices ebbed and stocks gained. Bunds and gilts outperform while Treasuries curve flattens with long-end yields slightly richer on the day. WTI oil futures are lower after Russia’s offer to ease Europe’s energy crunch. Negotiations on a short-term increase to U.S. debt-ceiling continue.    In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed and the greenback was weaker against most Group-of-10 peers, though moves were confined to relatively tight ranges. The U.S. jobs report Friday is the key risk for markets this week as a strong print could boost the dollar. Options traders see a strong chance that the euro manages to stay above a key technical support, at least on a closing basis. Risk sensitive currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars as well as Sweden’s krona led G-10 gains, while Norway’s currency was the worst performer as European natural gas and power prices tumbled early Thursday after signals from Russia it may increase supplies to the continent. The pound gained against a broadly weaker dollar as concerns over the U.K. petrol crisis eased and focus turned to Bank of England policy. A warning shot buried deep in the BoE’s policy documents two weeks ago indicating that interest rates could rise as early as this year suddenly is becoming a more distinct possibility. Australia’s 10-year bonds rose for the first time in two weeks as sentiment was bolstered by a short-term deal involving the U.S. debt ceiling. The yen steadied amid a recovery in risk sentiment as stocks edged higher. Bond futures rose as a debt auction encouraged players to cautiously buy the dip. Looking ahead, investors will be looked forward to the release of weekly jobless claims data, likely showing 348,000 Americans filed claims for state unemployment benefits last week compared with 362,000 in the prior week. The ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday showed private payrolls increased by 568,000 jobs last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a rise of 428,000 jobs. This comes ahead of the more comprehensive non-farm payrolls data due on Friday. It is expected to cement the case for the Fed’s slowing of asset purchases. We'll also get the latest August consumer credit print. From central banks, we’ll be getting the minutes from the ECB’s September meeting, and also hear from a range of speakers including the ECB’s President Lagarde, Lane, Elderson, Holzmann, Schnabel, Knot and Villeroy, along with the Fed’s Mester, BoC Governor Macklem and PBoC Governor Yi Gang. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1% to 4,395.5 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.03% to 455.96 MXAP up 1.2% to 193.71 MXAPJ up 1.8% to 633.78 Nikkei up 0.5% to 27,678.21 Topix down 0.1% to 1,939.62 Hang Seng Index up 3.1% to 24,701.73 Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,568.17 Sensex up 1.2% to 59,872.01 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,256.66 Kospi up 1.8% to 2,959.46 Brent Futures down 1.8% to $79.64/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,762.96 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.19 German 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to -0.188% Euro little changed at $1.1563 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Democrats signaled they would take up Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell’s offer to raise the U.S. debt ceiling into December, alleviating the immediate risk of a default but raising the prospect of another bruising political fight near the end of the year The European Central Bank is studying a new bond-buying program to prevent any market turmoil when emergency purchases get phased out next year, according to officials familiar with the matter Market expectations for interest-rate hikes “are not in accordance with our new forward guidance,” ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said in an interview with Bloomberg Television Creditors have yet to receive repayment of a dollar bond they say is guaranteed by China Evergrande Group and one of its units, in what could be the firm’s first major miss on maturing notes since regulators urged the developer to avoid a near-term default Boris Johnson’s plan to overhaul the U.K. economy is a 10-year project he wants to see out as prime minister, according to a senior official. The time frame, which has not been disclosed publicly, illustrates the scale of Johnson’s gamble that British voters will accept a long period of what he regards as shock therapy to redefine Britain The U.K.’s surge in inflation has boosted the cost of investment-grade borrowing in sterling to the most since June 2020. The average yield on the corporate notes climbed just past 2%, according to a Bloomberg index A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded positively as the region took impetus from the mostly positive close in the US where the major indices spent the prior session clawing back opening losses, with sentiment supported amid a potential Biden-Xi virtual meeting this year, and hopes of a compromise on the debt ceiling after Senate Republican Leader McConnell offered a short-term debt limit extension to December. The ASX 200 (+0.7%) was led higher by strength in the tech sector and with risk appetite also helped by the announcement to begin easing restrictions in New South Wales from next Monday. The Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) attempted to reclaim the 28k level with advances spearheaded by tech and amid reports Tokyo is to lower its virus warning from the current top level. The Hang Seng (+3.1%) was the biggest gainer owing to strength in tech and property stocks, with Evergrande shareholder Chinese Estates surging in Hong Kong after a proposal from Solar Bright to take it private. Reports also noted that the US and China reportedly reached an agreement in principle for a Biden-Xi virtual meeting before year-end and with yesterday’s talks in Zurich between senior officials said to be more meaningful and constructive than other recent exchanges. Finally, 10yr JGBs retraced some of the prior day’s after-hours rebound with haven demand hampered by the upside in stocks and after the recent choppy mood in T-notes, while the latest enhanced liquidity auction for longer-dated JGBs resulted in a weaker bid-to-cover. Top Asian News Vietnam Faces Worker Exodus From Factory Hub for Gap, Nike, Puma Japan’s New Finance Minister Stresses FX Stability Is Vital Korea Lures Haven Seekers With Bonds Sold at Lowest Spread Africa’s Free-Trade Area to Get $7 Billion in Support From AfDB Bourses in Europe hold onto the gains seen at the cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.5%; Stoxx 600 +1.1%) following on from an upbeat APAC handover, albeit the upside momentum took a pause shortly after the cash open. US equity futures are also firmer across the board but to a slightly lesser extent, with the tech-laden NQ (+1.0%) getting a boost from a pullback in yields and outperforming its ES (+0.7%), RTY (+0.6%) and YM (+0.6%). The constructive tone comes amid some positive vibes out of the States, and on a geopolitical note, with US Senate Minority Leader McConnell offered a short-term debt ceiling extension to December whilst US and China reached an agreement in principle for a Biden-Xi virtual meeting before the end of the year. Euro-bourses portray broad-based gains whilst the UK's FTSE 100 (+1.0%) narrowly lags the Euro Stoxx benchmarks, weighed on by its heavyweight energy and healthcare sectors, which currently reside at the foot of the bunch. Further, BoE's Chief Economist Pill also hit the wires today and suggested that the balance of risks is currently shifting towards great concerns about the inflation outlook, as the current strength of inflation looks set to prove more long-lasting than originally anticipated. Broader sectors initially opened with an anti-defensive bias (ex-energy), although the configuration since then has turned into more of a mixed picture, although Basic Resource and Autos still reside towards the top. Individual movers are somewhat scarce in what is seemingly a macro-driven day thus far. Miners top the charts on the last day of the Chinese Golden Week Holiday, with base metal prices also on the front foot in anticipation of demand from the nation – with Antofagasta (+5.1%), Anglo American (+4.2%) among the top gainers, whist Teamviewer (-8.2%) is again at the foot of the Stoxx 600 in a continuation of the losses seen after its guidance cut yesterday. Ubisoft (-5.1%) are also softer, potentially on a bad reception for its latest Ghost Recon game announcement. Top European News ECB’s Stournaras Reckons Investor Rate-Hike Bets Are Unwarranted Shell Flags Financial Impact of Gas Market Swings, Hurricane Johnson’s Plans for Economy Signal Ambitions for Decade in Power U.K. Grid Bids to Calm Market Saying Winter Gas Supply Is Enough In FX, the latest upturn in broad risk sentiment as the pendulum continues to swing one way then the other on alternate days, has given the Aussie a fillip along with news that COVID-19 restrictions in NSW remain on track for being eased by October 11, according to the state’s new Premier. Aud/Usd is eyeing 0.7300 in response to the above and a softer Greenback, while the Aud/Nzd cross is securing a firmer footing above 1.0500 in wake of a slender rise in AIG’s services index and ahead of the latest RBA FSR. Conversely, the Pound is relatively contained vs the Buck having probed 1.3600 when the DXY backed off further from Wednesday’s w-t-d peak to a 94.102 low and has retreated through 0.8500 against the Euro amidst unsubstantiated reports about less hawkish leaning remarks from a member of the BoE’s MPC. In short, the word is that Broadbent has downplayed the prospects of any fireworks in November via a rate hike, but on the flip-side new chief economist Pill delivered a hawkish assessment of the inflation situation in the UK when responding to a TSC questionnaire (see 10.18BST post on the Headline Feed for bullets and a link to his answers in full). Back to the Dollar index, challenger lay-offs are due and will provide another NFP guide before claims and commentary from Fed’s Mester, while from a technical perspective there is near term support just below 94.000 and resistance a fraction shy of 94.500, at 93.983 (yesterday’s low) and the aforementioned midweek session best (94.448 vs the 94.283 intraday high, so far). NZD - Notwithstanding the negative cross flows noted above, the Kiwi is also taking advantage of more constructive external and general factors to secure a firmer grip of the 0.6900 handle vs its US counterpart, but remains rather deflated post-RBNZ on cautious guidance in terms of further tightening. EUR/CHF/CAD/JPY - All narrowly mixed against their US peer and mostly well within recent ranges as the Euro reclaims 1.1500+ status in the run up to ECB minutes, the Franc consolidates off sub-0.9300 lows following dips in Swiss jobless rates, the Loonie weighs up WTI crude’s further loss of momentum against the Greenback’s retreat between 1.2600-1.2563 parameters awaiting Canada’s Ivey PMIs and a speech from BoC Governor Macklem, and the Yen retains an underlying recovery bid within 111.53-23 confines before a raft of Japanese data. Note, little reaction to comments from Japanese Finance Minister, when asked about recent Jpy weakening, as he simply said that currency stability is important, so is closely watching FX developments, but did not comment on current levels. In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are on the backfoot, in part amid the post-Putin losses across the Nat Gas space, with the UK ICE future dropping some 20% in early trade. This has also provided further headwinds to the crude complex, which itself tackles its own bearish omens. WTI underperforms Brent amid reports that the US was mulling a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release and did not rule out an export ban. Desks have offered their thoughts on the development. Goldman Sachs says a US SPR release would likely be of up to 60mln barrels, only representing a USD 3/bbl downside to the year-end USD 90/bbl Brent forecast and stated that relief would only be transitory given structural deficits the market will face from 2023 onwards. GS notes that any larger price impact that further hampers US shale activity would lead to elevated US nat gas prices in 2022, and an export ban would lead to significant disruption within the US oil market, likely bullish retail fuel price impact. RBC, meanwhile, believes that these comments were to incentivise OPEC+ to further open the taps after the producers opted to maintain a plan to hike output 400k BPD/m. On that note, sources noted that the OPEC+ decision against a larger supply hike at Monday's meeting was partly driven by concern that demand and prices could weaken – this would be in-fitting with sources back in July, which suggested that demand could weaken early 2022. The downside for crude prices was exacerbated as Brent Dec fell under USD 80/bbl to a low of near 79.00/bbl (vs 81.14/bbl), whilst WTI Nov briefly lost USD 75/bbl (vs high 77.23/bbl). Prices have trimmed some losses since. Metals in comparison have been less interesting; spot gold is flat and only modestly widened its overnight range to the current 1,756-66 range, whilst spot silver remains north of USD 22.50/bbl. Elsewhere, the risk tone has aided copper prices, with LME copper still north of USD 9,000/t, whilst some also cite supply concerns as a key mining road in Peru (second-largest copper producer) was blocked, with the indigenous community planning to continue the blockade indefinitely, according to a local leader. It is also worth noting that Chinese markets will return tomorrow from their Golden Week holiday. US Event Calendar 7:30am: Sept. Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -86.4% 8:30am: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 348,000, prior 362,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.76m, prior 2.8m 9:45am: Oct. Langer Consumer Comfort, prior 54.7 11:45am: Fed’s Mester Takes Part in Panel on Inflation Dynamics 3pm: Aug. Consumer Credit, est. $17.5b, prior $17b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap On the survey, given how fascinating markets are at the moment I think the results of this month’s edition will be especially interesting. However the irony is that when things are busy less people tend to fill it in as they are more pressed for time. So if you can try to spare 3-4 minutes your help would be much appreciated. Many thanks. It was a wild session for markets yesterday, with multiple asset classes swinging between gains and losses as investors sought to grapple with the extent of inflationary pressures and potential shock to growth. However US equities closed out in positive territory and at the highs as the news on the debt ceiling became more positive after Europe went home. Before this equities had lost ground throughout the London afternoon, with the S&P 500 down nearly -1.3% at one point with Europe’s STOXX 600 closing -1.03% lower. Cyclical sectors led the European underperformance, although it was a fairly broad-based decline. However after Europe went home – or closed their laptops in many cases – the positive debt ceiling developments saw risk sentiment improve throughout the rest of New York session. The S&P rallied to finish +0.41% and is now slightly up on the week, as defensive sectors such as utilities (+1.53%) and consumer staples (+1.00%) led the index while US cyclicals fell back like their European counterparts. Small cap stocks didn’t enjoy as much of a boost as the Russell 2000 ended the day -0.60% lower, while the megacap tech NYFANG+ index gained +0.82%. Risk sentiment improved following reports that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was willing to negotiate with Democrats to resolve the debt ceiling impasse and allow Democrats to raise the ceiling until December. This means President Biden and Congressional Democrats would be able to finish their fiscal spending package – now estimated at around $1.9-2.2 trillion – and include a further debt ceiling raise into one large reconciliation package near year-end. Senate Majority Leader Schumer has not publicly addressed the deal yet, but Democrats have signaled that they’ll accept the deal, although they’ve also indicated they’d still like to pass the longer-term debt ceiling bill under regular order in a bipartisan manner when the time came near year-end. Interestingly, if we did see the ceiling extended until December, this would put another deadline that month, since the government funding extension only went through to December 3, so we could have yet another round of multiple congressional negotiations in just a few weeks’ time. The news of a Republican offer coincided with President Biden’s virtual meeting with industry leaders, where the President implored them to join him in pressuring legislators to raise the debt limit. Treasury Secretary Yellen also attended the meeting, and re-emphasised her estimate for the so-called “drop dead date” to be October 18. Potentially at risk Treasury bills maturing shortly thereafter rallied a few basis points, signaling investors took yesterday afternoon’s debt ceiling developments as positive and credible. This was a far cry from where markets opened the London session as turmoil again gripped the gas market. UK and European natural gas futures both surged around +40% to reach an intraday high shortly after the open. However, energy markets went into reverse following comments from Russian President Putin that the country was set to supply more gas to Europe and help stabilise energy markets, with European futures erasing those earlier gains to actually end the day down -6.75%, with their UK counterpart similarly reversing course to close -6.96% too. The U.K. future traded in a stunning 255 to 408 price range on the day. We shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves here though, since even with the latest reversal, prices are still up by more than five-fold since the start of the year, and this astonishing increase over recent weeks has attracted attention from policymakers across the world as governments look to step in and protect consumers and industry. In the EU, the Energy Commissioner, Kadri Simson, said that the price shock was “hurting our citizens, in particular the most vulnerable households, weakening competitiveness and adding to inflationary pressure. … There is no question that we need to take policy measures”. However, the potential response appeared to differ across the continent. French President Macron said that more energy capacity was required, of which renewables and nuclear would be key elements, while Italian PM Draghi said that joint EU gas purchases had wide support. However, Hungarian PM Orban took the opportunity to blame the European Commission, saying that the Green Deal’s regulations were “indirect taxation”, which shows how these price spikes could create greater resistance to green measures moving forward. Elsewhere, blame was also cast on carbon speculators, with Spanish environment minister Rodriguez saying that “We don’t want to be hostages of external financial investors”, and outside the EU, Serbian President Vucic said that his country could ban power exports if there were further issues, which just shows how energy has the potential to become a big geopolitical issue this winter. Those declines in natural gas prices were echoed across the energy complex, with both Brent Crude (-1.79%) and WTI (-1.90%) oil prices subsiding from their multi-year highs the previous day, just as coal also fell -10.20%. In turn, that served to alleviate some of the concerns about building price pressures and helped measures of longer-term inflation expectations decline across the board. Indeed by the close, the 10yr breakeven in the US had come down -1.4bps, and the equivalent measures in Germany (-4.6bps), Italy (-6.1bps) and the UK (-4.2bps) had likewise seen declines of their own. In spite of those moves for inflation expectations, this proved little consolation for European sovereign bonds as higher real rates put them under continued pressure, even if yields had pared back some of their gains from the morning. Yields on 10yr bunds (+0.6bps), OATs (+0.9bps) and BTPs (+3.2bps) were all at their highest levels in 3 months, whilst those on Polish 10yr debt were up +13.7bps after the central bank there unexpectedly became the latest to raise rates, with the 40bps hike to 0.5% marking the first increase since 2012. However, for the US it was a different story, with yields on 10yr Treasuries down -0.5bps to 1.521%, having peaked at 1.57% earlier in the London morning. There was a late story in Europe that could bear watching in the coming weeks as Bloomberg reported that the ECB is studying a new bond-buying tool that could help ease market volatility if a “taper tantrum”-esque move were to happen when the PEPP purchases end in March. The plan would reportedly target purchases selectively if there were to be a larger selloff in more heavily indebted economies, which differs from the existing programs that buys debt in relation to the size of each member’s economy. Asian stocks overnight have performed strongly, with the Hang Seng (+2.28%), Nikkei (+1.68%) and KOSPI (+1.61%) all advancing after the positive news on the debt-ceiling, as well on news that US President Biden was set to meeting with Chinese President Xi by the end of the year. All the indices were lifted by the IT and consumer discretionary sectors, and the Hang Seng Tech index has rebounded by +3.29% this morning. Separately, Evergrande-related news has been subsiding in recent days, but China Estates, a company controlled by a backer of Evergrande, rose 30% after the company disclosed an offer to take it private for $245mn. Otherwise, US futures are pointing to a positive start later, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.50%) and DAX (+1.19%) both advancing. Turning to Germany, exploratory talks will be commencing today between the centre-left SPD, the Greens and the Liberal FDP, who together would make up a so-called “traffic-light” coalition. That marks a boost for the SPD, who beat the CDU/CSU bloc into first place in the September 26 election, although CDU leader Armin Laschet said that his party were “still ready to hold talks”. However, the CDU/CSU have faced internal tensions after they slumped to their worst-ever election result, whilst a Forsa poll out on Tuesday said that 53% of voters wanted a traffic-light coalition, versus just 22% who favoured the Jamaica option led by the CDU/CSU. So momentum seems clearly behind the traffic light option for now. Looking at yesterday’s data, in the US the ADP’s report at private payrolls came in at an unexpectedly strong +568k (vs. +430k expected), which is the highest in their series for 3 months and comes ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs report. However in Germany, factory orders in August fell by -7.7% (vs. -2.2% expected) amidst various supply issues. To the day ahead now, and data releases include German industrial production and Italian retail sales for August, whilst in the US we’ve got the weekly initial jobless claims and August’s consumer credit.From central banks, we’ll be getting the minutes from the ECB’s September meeting, and also hear from a range of speakers including the ECB’s President Lagarde, Lane, Elderson, Holzmann, Schnabel, Knot and Villeroy, along with the Fed’s Mester, BoC Governor Macklem and PBoC Governor Yi Gang. Tyler Durden Thu, 10/07/2021 - 07:57.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 7th, 2021

S&P, Dow Close at New Highs After Impressive Jobs Report

S&P, Dow Close at New Highs After Impressive Jobs Report SPECIAL ALERT: Remember, the latest episode of the Zacks Ultimate Strategy Session will be available for viewing no later than this Wednesday, April 7. Kevin Matras, Kevin Cook, David Borun and Daniel Laboe will cover the investment landscape from several angles in this informative event. Don’t miss your chance to hear: ▪ Kevin Cook and David Agree to Disagree on America's National Debt: Are we headed for a government-led financial crisis?   ▪ Kevin Matras answers your questions in Zacks Mailbag ▪ Kevin Cook and Daniel choose one portfolio to give feedback for improvement ▪ And much more So be sure to mark your calendar then log on to Zacks.com and bookmark this page. The market finally got an opportunity to celebrate Good Friday’s awesome jobs report. Returning from the three-day, Easter weekend, all of the major indices jumped by more than 1% on Monday with two of them closing at all-time highs. The Government Employment Situation report stated that an impressive 916,000 jobs were added to the economy in March, which was about 250K better than expectations and more than doubled the previous month’s result. The unemployment rate moved down to 6%.   As you would expect, jobs are returning to the travel and leisure spaces as the economy moves toward re-opening amid the ongoing vaccine rollout and the recent stimulus passage and infrastructure plan. The S&P jumped 1.44% on Monday to a new closing high of 4077.91. The index closed above 4,000 for the first time ever on Thursday… and now it’s knocking on the door of 4100! The Dow also made history today by jumping 1.13% (or about 374 points) to a new record close of 33,527.19. The NASDAQ actually had the best performance in the session, rising 1.67% (or about 225 points) to 13,705.59. It’s now within 3% of its own closing high. The FAANGs were all higher on the day, especially Alphabet (GOOG, +4.1%) and Facebook (FB, +3.4%). Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) were each up more than 2%, as Tesla (TSLA) jumped 4.4% and Microsoft (MSFT) rose 2.8%. In addition to the jobs report, we also got an historic ISM services report. It was up to 63.7 in March, compared to expectations that were below 60. The result was an all-time high for the index and provided further evidence that this economy is revving up for the re-opening. This may be the most exciting session for the whole week. Earnings season doesn’t begin until late next week, and the biggest economic data has already been released. Of course, the Fed minutes on Wednesday could have an impact... Today's Portfolio Highlights: Technology Innovators: This portfolio is no stranger to Progress Software (PRGS), a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) that was in the service last year and brought a more than 20% return when sold in December. Brian is hoping that history repeats itself here in 2021. On Monday, he re-added PRGS, which offers the leading platform for developing and deploying mission-critical business applications. It has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last three quarters with surprises that have been increasing over that time, which is something the editor really likes to see. He also appreciates the company’s valuation. Read the full write-up for a lot more on this new addition. In other news, this portfolio had a top performer on Monday as Amkor Technology (AMKR) advanced 7.4%. Surprise Trader: Earnings season is right around the corner... and Dave can’t wait! The banks kick things off at the end of next week and this portfolio got started today by adding Commerce Bancshares (CBSH). This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) has reported double-digit beats in each of the past two quarters. Now it has a positive Earnings ESP for the quarter coming before the bell on Thursday, April 15. The editor added CBSH on Monday with a 12.5% allocation, while also selling the underperforming Science Applications International (SAIC) position. Read the full write-up for more on today’s moves. Headline Trader: The addition of Home Depot (HD) back in March was a “no-brainer” for Dan and this new portfolio. The home improvement giant was in a good spot to capitalize on the $1400 checks and the upcoming economic re-opening. And it’s worked out just as the editor planned with the stock already hitting his initial price target. Therefore, he sold half of HD on Monday for a more than 17% return in less than a month. Learn more in the complete commentary. Black Box Trader: This week's adjustment replaced half of the portfolio. All five of the stocks sold today were positive, including two double-digit winners. Those names that left the service on Monday included: • U.S. Steel (X, +15.6%) • Owens & Minor (OMI, +10.2%) • Groupon (GRPN, +3.1%) • Resideo Technologies (REZI, +1.7%) • Covanta Holding (CVA, +0.9%) The new buys that filled these spots were: • Jefferies Financial (JEF) • KB Home (KBH) • Olin Corp. (OLN) • Santander Consumer USA (SC) • Valero Energy (VLO) By the way, this portfolio had the best performer among all ZU services on Monday as United Natural Foods (UNFI) rose 10.5%. Read the Black Box Trader’s Guide to learn more about this computer-driven service. Until Tomorrow, Jim Giaquinto Recommendations from Zacks' Private Portfolios: Believe it or not, this article is not available on the Zacks.com website. The commentary is a partial overview of the daily activity from Zacks' private recommendation services. If you would like to follow our Buy and Sell signals in real time, we've made a special arrangement for readers of this website. Starting today you can see all the recommendations from all of Zacks' portfolios absolutely free for 7 days. Our services cover everything from value stocks and momentum trades to insider buying and positive earnings surprises (which we've predicted with an astonishing 80%+ accuracy). Click here to "test drive" Zacks Ultimate for FREE >>  Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 21st, 2021

The 2022 Market Disaster... More Pain To Come

The 2022 Market Disaster... More Pain To Come Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, If you think the current market disaster hurts; it’s gonna get worse despite recent dead cat bounces in U.S. equities. The Big 4: Dead Bonds, Rising Yields, Tanking Stocks & Stagflation For well over a year before fantasy-pushers and politicized, central-bank mouth pieces like Powell and Yellen were preaching “transitory inflation,” or hinting that “we may never see another financial crisis in our lifetime,” we’ve been patiently and bluntly (rather than “gloomily”) warning investors of the “Big Four.” That is, we saw an: 1) inevitable liquidity crisis which would take our 2) zombie bond markets to the floor, yields (and hence interest rates) to new highs and 3) debt-soaked nations and markets tanking dangerously south into 4) the dark days of stagflation. In short, by calmly tracking empirical data and cyclical debt patterns, one does not have to be a market timer, tarot-reader or broken watch of “doom and gloom” to warn of an unavoidable credit, equity, inflation and currency crisis, all of which lead to levels of increasing political and social crisis and ultimately extreme control from the top down. Such are the currents of history and the tides/fates of broke(n) regimes. And that is precisely where we are today—no longer warning of a pending convergence of crises, but already well into a market disaster within the worst macro-economic setting (compliments of cornered “central planners”) that I have ever experienced in my post-dot.com career. But sadly, and I do mean sadly, the worst is yet to come. As always, facts rather than sensationalism confirm such hard conclusions, and hence we turn now to some equally hard facts behind this market disaster. The Ignored Hangover For well over a decade, the post-2008 central bankers of the world have been selling the intoxicating elixir (i.e., lie) that a debt crisis can be solved with more debt, which is then paid for with mouse-click money. Investors drank this elixir with abandon as markets ripped to unprecedented highs on an inflationary wave of money printed out of thin air by a central bank near you. In case you still don’t know what such “correlation” looks like, see below: But as we’ve warned in interview after interview and report after report, the only thing mouse-click money does is make markets drunker rather than immune from a fatal hangover and market disaster. For years, such free money from the global central banks ($35T and counting) has merely postponed rather than outlawed the hangover, but as we are seeing below, the hangover, and puking, has already begun in a stock, credit or currency market disaster near you. Why? Every Market Crisis is a Liquidity Crisis Because the money (i.e., “liquidity”) that makes this drunken fantasy go round is drying up (or “tightening”) as the debt levels are piling up. That is, years and years of issuing IOU’s (i.e., sovereign bonds) has made those IOU’s less attractive, and the solution-myth of creating money out of thin air to pay for those IOUs is becoming less believable as inflation rises like a killer shark from beneath the feet of our money printers. The Most Important Bond in the World Has Lost Its Shine As we’ve warned, the UST is experiencing a liquidity problem. Demand for Uncle Sam’s bar tab (IOU’s) is tanking month, after month, after month. As a result, the price of those bonds is falling and hence their yields (and our interest rates) are rising, creating massive levels of pain in an already debt-saturated world where rising rates kill drunken credit parties (i.e., markets). Toward this end, Wall Street is seeing a dangerous rise in what the fancy lads call “omit days,” which basically means days wherein inter-dealer liquidity for UST’s is simply not available. Such omit days are screaming signs of “uh-oh” which go un-noticed by 99.99% of the consensus-think financial advisors selling traditional stocks and bonds for a fee. As the repo warnings (as well as our written warnings) have made clear since September of 2019, when liquidity in the credit markets tightens, the entire risk asset bubble (stocks, bonds and property) starts to cough, wheeze and then choke to death. Unfortunately, the extraordinary levels of global debt in general, and US public debt in particular, means there’s simply no way to avoid more choking to come The Fed—Tightening into a Debt Crisis? As all debt-soaked nations or regimes since the days of ancient Rome remind us , once debt levels exceed income levels by 100% or more, the only option left is to “inflate away” that debt by debasing (i.e., expanding/diluting) the currency—which is the very definition of inflation. And that inflation is only just beginning… Despite pretending to “control,” “allow” and then “combat” inflation, truth-challenged central bankers like Powell, Kuroda and Lagarde have therefore been actively seeking to create inflation and hence reduce their debt to GDP ratios below the fatal triple digit level. Unfortunately for the central bankers in general and Powell in particular, this ploy has not worked, as the US public debt to GDP ratio continues to stare down the 120% barrel and the Fed now blindly follows a doomed policy of tightening into a debt crisis. This can only mean higher costs of debt, which can only mean our already debt-soaked bond and stock markets have much further to go/tank. Open & Obvious (i.e., Deadly) Bond Dysfunction In sum, what we are seeing from DC to Brussels, Tokyo and beyond is now an open and obvious (rather than pending, theoretical or warned) bond dysfunction thanks to years of artificial bond “accommodation” (i.e., central-bank bond buying with mouse-click currencies). As we recently warned, signals from that toxic waste dump (i.e., market sector) known as MBS (“Mortgage-Backed Securities”) provide more objective signs of this bond dysfunction (market disaster) playing out in real-time. Earlier this month, as the CPI inflation scale went further (and predictably) up rather down, the MBS market went “no bid,” which just means no one wanted to buy those baskets of unloved bonds. This lack of demand merely sends the yields (and hence rates) for all mortgages higher. On June 10, the rates for 30-year fixed mortgages in the U.S. went from 5.5% to 6% overnight, signaling one of the many symptoms of a dying property bull as U.S. housing starts reached 13-month lows and building permits across the nation fell like dominoes. Meanwhile, other warnings in the commercial bond market, from Investment Grade to Junk Bonds, serve as just more symptoms of a dysfunctional “no-income” (as opposed to “fixed income”) U.S. bond market. And in case you haven’t noticed, the CDS (i.e., “insurance”) market for junk bonds is rising and rising. Of course, central bankers like Powell will blame the inevitable death of this U.S. credit bubble on inflation caused by Putin alone rather than decades of central bank drunk driving and inflationary broad money supply expansion. Pointing Fingers Rather than Looking in the Mirror Powell is already confessing that a soft landing from the current inflation crisis is now “out of his hands” as energy prices skyrocket thanks to Putin. There’s no denying the “Putin effect” on energy prices, but what’s astounding is that Powell, and other central bankers have forgotten to mention how fragile (i.e., bloated) Western financial systems became under his/their watch. Decades of cramming rates to the floor and printing trillions from thin air has made the U.S. in particular, and the West in general, hyper-fragile; that is: Too weak to withstand pushback from less indebted bullies like Putin. But as we warned almost from day 1 of the February sanctions against Russia, they were bound to back-fire big time and accelerate an unraveling inflationary disaster in the West. The West & Japan: Overplaying the Sanction Hand As we warned in February, Russia is squeezing the sanction-makers with greater pain than history-and-math-ignorant “statesmen” like Kamala Harris could ever grasp. From here in Europe, Western politicians are beginning to wonder if following the U.S. lead (coercion?) in chest-puffing was a wise idea, as gas prices on the continent skyrocket. In this backdrop of rising energy costs, Germany, whose PPI is already at 30%, has to be asking itself if it can afford tough-talk in the Ukraine as Putin threatens to cut further energy supplies. In this cold reality, the geniuses at the ECB are realizing that the very “state of their European Union” is at increasing risk of dis-union as citizens from Italy to Austria bend under the weight of higher prices and falling income. As of this writing, the openly nervous ECB is thus inventing clever plans/titles to “fight fragmentation” within the EU by, you guessed it: Printing more money out of thin air to control bond yields and cap borrowing costs. Of course, such pre-warned and inevitable (as well as politicized) versions of yield curve controls (YCC) are themselves, just well…Inflationary. Even outside the EU, the UK’s Prime Minister is discussing the idea of handing out free money to the bottom 30% of its population as a means to combat inflating prices, equally forgetting to recognize that such handouts are by their very nature just, well…Inflationary. (By the way, such monetary policies are an open signal to short the Euro and GBP against the USD…) Looking further east to that equally embarrassing state of the union in Japan, we see, as warned countless times, a tanking Yen out of a Japan that knows all too well the inflationary sickness that a non-stop money printer can create. Like the UST, the Japanese JGB is as unloved as a pig in lipstick. Prices are falling and yields are rising. As demand for Japanese IOU’s falls, yields and rates are rising, compelling more YCC (i.e., money printing) from the Bank of Japan as the now vicious (and well…inflationary) circle of printing more currencies to pay for more debt/IOUs spins/spirals fatally round and round. By the way, and as part of our continued warning and theme of the slow process of de-dollarizationwhich the sanctions have only accelerated, it would not surprise us to see Japan making a similar “China-like” move to buy its Russian oil in its own currency rather than the USD. Just saying… Don’t Be (or buy) a Dip As indicated above, trying to combat inflation with rate hikes is not only a joke, it creates a market disaster when a nation’s debt to GDP is at 120%. To fight inflation, rates need be at a “neutral level,” (i.e., above inflation), and folks, that would mean 9% rates at the current 8%+ CPI level. That aint gonna happen… At $30T+ of government debt and rising, the Fed can NEVER use rising rates to fight inflation. End of story. The days of Volcker rate hikes (when public debt was $900B not $30T) are gone. But the fickle Fed can raise rates high enough to kill a securities bubble and create “asset-bubble deflation,” which is precisely what we are seeing in real time, and this market disaster is only going to get worse. In short, if you are buying this “dip,” you may want to think again. As June trade tapes remind, the Dow dipped below 30000, and the S&P 500 reported an ominous 3666, already losing more than 20% despite remaining grossly over-valued as it slides officially into bear territory. As for the NASDAQ’s -30% YTD loss, well, it’s embarrassing… Many, of course, will buy this dip, as many forget the data, facts and traps of dead-cat bounces. Toward this end, it’s worth reminding that 12 of the top 20 one-day rallies in the NASDAQ occurred after that market began a nearly 80% plunge between 2000 and 2003. Similarly, the S&P saw 9 of its top 20 one-day rallies following the 1929 crash in which that market lost 86% from its highs. In short: These bear markets are not even close to their bottom, and today’s dip-buy may just be a trap, unless you think you can time a one-day rally amidst years of falling assets. Markets won’t and don’t recover from the bear’s claws until spikes are well above two standard deviations. We are not there yet, which means we have much further to fall. Capitulation in U.S. stocks won’t even be a discussion until the DOW is below 28,400 and the S&P blow 3500. Over the course of this bear, I see both falling much further. As we’ve warned, mean-reversion is a powerful force and we see deeper lows/reversions ahead: Toward that end, we see an SPX which could easily fall at least 15% lower (i.e., to at least 1850) than the “Covid crash” of March 2020. Based upon historic ranges, stocks won’t be anywhere near “fair value” until we see a Shiller PE at 16 or a nominal PE of 9-10. Index bubbles have been driven by ETF inflation which followed the Fed liquidity binge—and those ETF’s will fall far faster in a market disaster than they grew in a Fed tailwind. And if you still think meme stocks, alt coins or the Fed itself can save you from further market disaster, we’d (again) suggest you think otherwise. Looking at historical data on prior crashes from 1968 to the present, the average bear crash is at around -33%. Unfortunately, there’s nothing “average” about this bear or the further falls to come. The Shiller PE, for example, has another 40% to go (down) before stocks approach anything close to “fair value.” In the 1970’s, for example, when we saw the S&P lose 48%, or even in 2008, when it lost 56%, U.S. debt to GDP levels were ¼ of what they are today. Furthermore, in the 1970’s the average consumer savings rate was 12%; today that rate is 4%. Stated simply, the U.S., like the EU and Japan, is too debt-crippled and too GDP-broke to make this bear short and sweet. Instead, it will be long and mean, accompanied by stagflation and rising unemployment. The Fed knows this, and is, in part, raising rates today so that will have something—anything—to cut in the market disaster tomorrow. But that will be far too little, and far too late. And, Gold… Of course, the Fed, the IMF, the Davos crowd, the MSM and the chest-puffing sanction (back-firing) West will blame the current and future global market disaster on a virus with a 99% survival rate and an avoidable war in a corner of Europe that neither Biden nor Harris could find on a map. Instead, and as most already know, the real cause of the greatest market bubble and bust in the history of modern capital markets lies in the reflection of central bankers and politicians who bought time, votes, market bubbles, wealth disparity and cancerous inflation with a mouse-click. History reminds us of this, current facts confirm it. For now, the Fed will tighten, and thereby unleash an even angrier bear. Then, as we’ve warned, the Fed will likely pivot to more rate cuts and even more printed (inflationary) currencies as the US, the EU and Japan engage in more inflationary YCC and an inevitable as well as disorderly “re-set” already well telegraphed by the IMF. In either/any scenario, gold gets the last laugh. Gold, of course, has held its own even as rates and the USD have risen—typically classic gold headwinds. When markets tank and the Fed pivots, yields on the 10Y could fall as global growth weakens—thus providing a gold tailwind. Furthermore, the USD’s days of relative strength are equally numbered, as is the current high demand for US T-Bill-backed collateral for that USD. As the slow trend toward de-dollarization increases, so will the tailwind and hence price of gold increase as the USD’s credibility decreases. In the interim, the fact that gold has stayed strong despite the temporary spike in the USD speaks volumes. In the interim, Gold outperforms tanking stocks by a median range of 45%, and when the inflationary pivot to more QE returns, gold protects longer-term investors from grotesquely (and increasingly) debased currencies. And when (not if) the re-set toward CBDC (central bank digital currencies) finally arrives, that blockchain eYen and eDollar will need a linkage to a neutral commodity not to an empty “faith & trust” in just another new fiat/fantasy with an electronic profile. As we’ve been saying for decades: Gold Matters. Tyler Durden Thu, 06/30/2022 - 07:20.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge1 hr. 25 min. ago

Homebuying and Climate Change: The Riskiest and Safest Places in 2022

Home prices in areas most impacted by climate change are actually increasing at a higher rate than the national median, according to new research released this week by Clever Real Estate. The study shows that median home sale prices have increased more than 130% in major metros within states that have had at least 50… The post Homebuying and Climate Change: The Riskiest and Safest Places in 2022 appeared first on RISMedia. Home prices in areas most impacted by climate change are actually increasing at a higher rate than the national median, according to new research released this week by Clever Real Estate. The study shows that median home sale prices have increased more than 130% in major metros within states that have had at least 50 FEMA disaster declarations since 2012—compared to the national median of 113%.  Key findings in the research: Disasters causing over $1 billion in damage have grown increasingly common in the last four decades, costing the U.S. over $2 trillion since 1980. The states that climate change has most financially impacted since 1980 are Texas, Louisiana, Florida and California. Out of 145 billion-dollar disasters in the U.S. since 2012, Texas has been impacted by 73 of them. The U.S. counties with the highest hazard risk scores are Harris County (Houston) in Texas, Miami-Dade County in Florida and Bronx County in New York. Since 2012, California has had 146 FEMA-declared weather and environmental disasters, the most in the U.S. and 564% more than the average state, which has had 22 (includes all disasters, not just those costing over $1 billion). In that span, the average coastal state has experienced 27 FEMA weather disasters, while the average non-coastal state has experienced 18. In 2021, federal emergency officials declared at least one non-COVID disaster in 41 U.S. states. States with the highest overall Expected Annual Losses (EAL) from natural hazards are California, followed by Texas, Florida and Louisiana. States with the lowest overall EAL scores are Rhode Island, Vermont and Delaware, among other Northeastern states. California is the most at risk of wildfire damage, with the highest EAL score in that disaster category. New Jersey is the most at risk of coastal flooding damage, with the highest EAL score in that category. Texas is the most at risk of hurricanes, river flooding and winter storm damage, with the highest EAL scores in those categories. The takeaway: “Americans continue to live in—and move to—the areas most at risk of disasters,” the report stated. “Coastal counties, for example, make up 10% of the nation’s land, but hold 40% of the population. Our analysis shows many of the states most threatened by disasters are home to some of the most in-demand metro areas for homebuyers.” Click here to read the full report. The post Homebuying and Climate Change: The Riskiest and Safest Places in 2022 appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismedia8 hr. 9 min. ago