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Corporacion America Airport reports Q1 EPS (28c), consensus (26c)

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Category: blogSource: theflyonthewallMay 19th, 2021

Hawaiian Airlines diverted 2 flights in less than 12 hours after one passenger assaulted a flight attendant and another refused to wear a mask

Two Hawaiian Airlines flights from Honolulu were diverted Thursday after a passenger hit a flight attendant "unprovoked" and another refused to mask. Mehmet Ali Ozcan/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images Two Hawaiian Airlines flights were diverted Thursday over disturbances from unruly passengers. One of the flyers assaulted a flight attendant walking down the aisle in an "unprovoked incident." The unruly passenger on the other flight refused to wear a mask. See more stories on Insider's business page. Hawaiian Airlines diverted two flights in under 12 hours this week after unruly passengers onboard caused disturbances.On Thursday morning, a flight from Honolulu to Hilo was forced to return to the airport after "a passenger assaulted one of our flight attendants, who was walking the aisle, in an unprovoked incident," a company spokesperson told The Honolulu Star-Advertiser.The passenger, a 32-year-old man, was arrested for third-degree assault when he deplaned, a spokesperson for Hawaii's Department of Public Safety told the Associated Press. The FBI is investigating the incident, an agency spokesperson told the AP. The flight attendant, meanwhile, was "evaluated and released from work to rest," Hawaiian Airlines told the Star-Advertiser.Later on Thursday, another Hawaiian Airlines flight ran into trouble. On a flight from Honolulu to Seattle, a passenger refused to wear a mask and "caused a disturbance," a company spokesperson told the Star-Advertiser. Flight attendants and an off-duty pilot de-escalated the situation, but the flight was diverted out of an abundance of caution. No one was injured.The incidents come amid a spike in passenger disturbances onboard commercial flights. The FAA said this week that it has received more than 4,000 reports of unruly passengers so far this year, but only one has resulted in a person being criminally charged. That incident involved a Southwest Airlines passenger who was seen punching a flight attendant in the face in a viral video. Many flight attendants are dealing with burnout and adverse effects on their mental health due to the surge in passenger violence, as Insider's Allana Akhtar reported.Delta Airlines recently said it had banned 1,600 passengers and called on others in the industry to share their "no-fly" passenger lists as well.Hawaiian Airlines did not respond to a request for comment. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytSep 24th, 2021

Making Sense of the Q3 Earnings Picture and Beyond

Recent updates on the revisions trends have been somewhat disconcerting, as you can see in the chart below that tracks the evolution of Q3 earnings growth expectations... One enduring feature of the corporate earnings landscape that unfolded following the initial Covid-related disruptions has been the steady improvement in estimates. The favorable revisions trend got underway in July 2020 and gained pace in the following quarters.However, recent updates on the revisions trends have been somewhat disconcerting, as you can see in the chart below that tracks the evolution of Q3 earnings growth expectations.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWhat we see here is that the trend appears to have shifted course over the last few weeks after remaining modestly positive since the start of the quarter. This loss of momentum is likely tied to the emerging economic slowdown, which in turn is likely a function of the Delta variant. Estimates of GDP growth have been steadily coming down and currently stand around +3%, roughly half of the growth rate expected a few months back.We also need to keep an eye on the margins outlook, given rising cost trends in labor, inputs, freight/logistics and other line items.That said, the market appears to agree with the Fed’s assessment of this trend as ‘transitory’ and a function of Covid-related disruptions that will eventually even out. This view is reflected in current consensus estimates, as you can see in the chart below.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThis ‘transitory’ view of the ongoing cost pressures is even more pronounced in the annual view of the margins picture, as the chart below shows.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWe all know that the ‘transitory’ or otherwise debate has implications for Fed policy, which is as important for the market as the outlook for earnings and margins.To bring the conversation back to the revisions trend, it is important to point out that estimates for 2021 Q4 have nudged up in recent weeks even as Q3 has stalled out.Expectations for Q3 & Beyond The last earnings season (2021 Q2) not only witnessed a very high earnings growth rate, but the aggregate tally of total earnings also reached a new all-time quarterly record, surpassing the record set in the preceding period. Other positives that came out of the Q2 earnings season included the breadth of strength across all the key sectors and the notable momentum on the revenue front.We know that the unusually high growth rates of the first two quarters will not continue in the last two quarters as they largely reflected easy comparisons to the year-earlier periods that were severely impacted by Covid-related disruptions. Comparisons will be relatively normal in 2021 Q3 and beyond as the U.S. economy had started opening up in the year-earlier period and hence the expected deceleration in the growth pace.You can see this expected growth deceleration in the below chart that puts 2021 Q3 earnings and revenue growth expectations in the context of where growth has been in the preceding four periods and the estimates for the following three quarters.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe comparable picture on an annual basis is no less impressive, as you can see in the chart below.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWe mentioned earlier how the aggregate 2021 Q2 earnings tally represented a new all-time quarterly record. You can see that in the chart below, with this year’s four quarters highlighted.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWe all know that large segments of the economy, particularly in the broader leisure, travel and hospitality spaces are held down by the pandemic, with companies in these areas still earning significantly less than they did in the pre-Covid period. In fact, many of these companies aren’t expected to get back to pre-Covid profitability levels for almost one more year.The impressive feature of the record earnings in each of the last two quarters is that they were achieved without help from these key parts of the economy.Earnings Season Gets UnderwayMost companies have fiscal quarters that correspond with the calendar periods. As such, the wide majority of Q3 earnings reports will be from companies that have fiscal quarters ending in September. But there are some companies that have fiscal quarters ending in August and a number of them have been reporting their fiscal August-quarter results in recent days.The earnings releases in recent days from the likes of FedEx FDX, Oracle ORCL, Adobe ADBE, Nike NKE and others all fall in this category; they all had fiscal quarters ending in August. We count all of these reports as part of our Q3 earnings tally.Through Friday, September 24th, we have seen such Q3 results from 10 S&P 500 members, with 6 other index members on deck to report results this week. Operators such as Micron MU, Cintas CTAS, McCormick & Company MCK and others will release their fiscal August quarter results this week.By the time JPMorgan JPM and other big banks start rereporting their September-quarter results on October 13th, we will have seen such August-quarter results from almost two dozen S&P 500 members.For the 10 index members that have reported Q3 results already, total earnings are up +15% from the same period last year on +16% higher revenues, with 90% beating EPS estimates and 50% beating revenue estimates. The proportion of these 10 index members beating both EPS and revenue estimates is 40%.This is too early and the sample size is too small to offer us any interpretive guidance, but I will be closely monitoring how the revenue beats percentage unfolds in the coming days.That said, the way it looks at present (50% for Q3, below the preceding quarter’s 100% for these 10 index members and only modestly above the 5-year low of 40%) isn’t reassuring.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFor a detailed look at the overall earnings picture, including expectations for the coming periods, please check out our weekly Earnings Trends report >>>>What Will Q3 Earnings Season Show? Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): Free Stock Analysis Report NIKE, Inc. (NKE): Free Stock Analysis Report Micron Technology, Inc. (MU): Free Stock Analysis Report McKesson Corporation (MCK): Free Stock Analysis Report Cintas Corporation (CTAS): Free Stock Analysis Report Oracle Corporation (ORCL): Free Stock Analysis Report Adobe Inc. (ADBE): Free Stock Analysis Report FedEx Corporation (FDX): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

AAR Corp (AIR) Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Rise Y/Y

AAR Corp (AIR) reports a surge of 206% in its first-quarter fiscal 2022 adjusted earnings of 52 cents per share. It also surpasses the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 49 cents AAR Corp. AIR reported first-quarter fiscal 2022 adjusted earnings of 52 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 49 cents by6.1%. Earnings recorded a whopping surge of 206% from the year-ago quarter.Total SalesIn the quarter under review, net sales totaled $455.1 million. The reported figure outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $438 million by 3.9% and it rose 14% from $400.8 million recorded in the year-ago quarter.AAR Corp. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise  AAR Corp. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | AAR Corp. QuoteSegment DetailsIn the first quarter, sales at the Aviation Services segment summed $435.6 million, up 19.8% yearoveryear. Expeditionary Services recorded sales of $19.5 million, down 47.6% from $37.2 million in the year-ago quarter.Operational UpdateThe gross profit margin in the reported quarter increased to 16.1% from 13% in the prior-year quarter. The margin expansion primarily resulted from the favorable impactsofthe company’s effort to reduce costs and increase operational efficiency. Selling, general and administrative expenses rose 8.8% to $49.3 millionin the fiscal first quarter mainly due to the restoration of temporary compensation reductions. Adjusted operating margin increased to 5.5% from 2.5% in the prior-year quarter. The company incurred interest expenses of $0.7 million in the fiscal first quarter as compared with $1.6 million in the year-ago quarter.Financial DetailsAs of Aug 31, 2021, AAR Corp’s cash and cash equivalents amounted to $48.8 million compared with$51.8 million as of May 31, 2021.AAR Corp reported long-term debt of $127.6 million as of Aug 31, 2021, down from $133.7 million as of May 31, 2021.Zacks RankAAR Corp currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Other Defense ReleasesLockheed Martin Corp. LMTreported second-quarter2021 adjusted earnings of $7.13 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimateof $6.51 per share by 9.5%. Hexel Corporation HXL reported second-quarter 2021 adjusted earnings of 8 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a penny. General Dynamic Corporation GD reported second-quarter 2021 earnings from continuing operations of $2.61 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.52 per share by 3.6%. Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT): Free Stock Analysis Report General Dynamics Corporation (GD): Free Stock Analysis Report AAR Corp. (AIR): Free Stock Analysis Report Hexcel Corporation (HXL): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

Vail Resorts (MTN) Q4 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates

Vail Resorts' (MTN) fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 results benefit from robust demand across its North American summer operations. Vail Resorts, Inc. MTN reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 results, with the top and the bottom line beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third straight quarter. Moreover, the metrics improved year over year.Rob Katz, chief executive officer, stated, “Results continued to improve as the 2020/2021 North American ski season progressed, primarily as a result of stronger destination visitation at our Colorado and Utah resorts.”In the quarter under review, the company reported a loss of $3.49 per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $3.64. In the prior-year quarter, the company had reported a loss of $3.82 per share.Quarterly revenues were $204.2 million, which surpassed the consensus mark of $177 million. Moreover, the top line rose 164.5% on a year-over-year basis. The upside was due to robust performance by the Mountain and Lodging segments. The company stated that robust demand across its North American summer operations during the fourth quarter surpassed the company’s expectation.Vail Resorts, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise  Vail Resorts, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Vail Resorts, Inc. Quote Segment ResultsVail Resorts reports through two segments — Mountain and Lodging.The Mountain segment generated revenues of $124.5 million in the quarter under review, up 155.4% year over year.  The increase can be attributed to 189.6% rise in lift revenues. Ski school and retail/rental revenue rose 318.5% and 130.4%, respectively. Dining revenues in the quarter surged 469.7%.The segment’s EBITDA amounted to ($103.8) million compared with ($94.4) million reported in the prior-year quarter. Operating expenses in the Mountain segment totaled $228.8 million, up 59.4% year over year.Lodging net revenues in the reported quarter were $79.3 million, up 179.3% year over year primarily due to robust dining revenues. Under the segment, EBITDA increased to $5 million from the prior-year quarter’s figure of ($8.2) million.Operating expenses in the Lodging segment increased 103.1% year over year to $74.3 million.Operating ResultsVail Resorts reported adjusted EBITDA of ($99.9) million in the quarter compared with ($103.8) million reported in the prior-year quarter. Resort operating expenses totaled $303.2 million, up 67.8% year over year.Balance SheetCash and cash equivalents as of Jul 31, 2021, totaled $1,244 million, up from $391 million in the year-ago period.Net long-term debt amounted to $2,736.2 million at the end of the quarter, up from $2,387.1 million at the end of the prior-year quarter.As of Jul 31, 2021, the company had total cash and revolver availability of approximately $1.9 billion. This includes $1.2-billion cash in hand, $418 million of U.S. revolver availability under the Vail Holdings Credit Agreement and $195 million of revolver availability under the Whistler Credit Agreement.Fiscal 2022 GuidanceThe company provided outlook for fiscal 2022. In fiscal 2022, the company anticipates net income in the range of $278-$349 million. Resorts reported EBITDA is expected in the range of $785-$835 million. Resorts reported EBITDA margin is anticipated to be nearly 32.1%, using the midpoint of the guidance.Vail Resorts has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).Top Leisure PicksBluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation BVH has a projected 2021 earnings growth rate of 172% and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. RICK sports a Zacks Rank #1 and has a projected long-term earnings growth rate of 12%.SeaWorld Entertainment, Inc. SEAS sports a Zacks Rank #1. Its bottom line has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing three quarters. Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. (RICK): Free Stock Analysis Report SeaWorld Entertainment, Inc. (SEAS): Free Stock Analysis Report Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN): Free Stock Analysis Report Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation (BVH): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

NIKE (NKE) Q1 Earnings Beat, Sales Miss on Supply Constraints

NIKE (NKE) reports mixed Q2 results on strong NIKE Direct revenues, improved traffic and robust digital momentum, offset by the global supply-chain woes, and factory closures in Vietnam and Indonesia. NIKE Inc. NKE posts mixed first-quarter fiscal 2022 results amid supply-chain disruptions. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while sales lagged estimates. However, revenues and earnings improved year over year on strong NIKE Direct revenues, led by the return of traffic to stores as well as continued digital momentum. Its product innovation, brand strength and scale of operations continued to drive digital sales growth.Shares of the company declined 3.9% after the close of the trading session on Sep 23. The negative investor sentiment can be attributed to the company’s commentary on its position amid supply-chain woes and the closure of factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, and the consequent lowering of the fiscal 2022 guidance.Overall, shares of this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company have gained 2.8% in the past three months compared with the industry’s 1.6% growth.NIKE, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise  NIKE, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | NIKE, Inc. QuoteQ1 HighlightsIn the reported quarter, the company’s earnings per share of $1.16 increased 22% from 95 cents reported in the year-ago quarter and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of $1.12.Revenues of the Swoosh brand owner grew 16% year over year to $12,248 million but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12,539.5 million. On a currency-neutral basis, revenues improved 12% year over year, driven by growth across all channels, led by growth at NIKE Direct.Sales at NIKE Direct were $4.7 billion, up 28% on a reported basis and 25% on a currency-neutral basis. The NIKE Direct business benefited from steady normalization of the owned retail business and continued momentum in the digital business. Revenues at owned stores improved 24%, which was above the pre-pandemic levels recorded in first-quarter fiscal 2020. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The company continued to witness robust revenue growth at the NIKE Brand’s Digital business despite the reopening of stores. Digital revenues for the NIKE Brand were up 29% year over year on a reported basis. On a constant-currency basis, Digital sales improved 25%, led by 43% growth in North America.However, Wholesale revenues increased 5%, owing to the impacts of lower availability inventory supplies, thanks to the worsening delays in transit.Operating SegmentsThe NIKE Brand Revenues were $11,640 million, up 16% year over year on a reported basis. Revenues for the brand increased 12% on a constant-dollar basis primarily due to the NIKE Direct business’ double-digit growth in North America, APLA and EMEA.Within the NIKE Brand, revenues in North America advanced 15% on both reported and currency-neutral basis to $4,879 million. This marked the fifth consecutive season of the incredible demand for NIKE products, fueled by the back-to-school sale and return of sports activity. North America revenues benefited from double-digit growth in the Performance business in the Fall season, led by running, fitness and basketball. This growth was also influenced by the Olympics fervor, the WNBA season and the NBA finals.Sales for the NIKE Direct business were up more than 45% in the region, accounting for 26% business share. Digital sales grew 40%, driven by market share growth on strong site traffic and repeated buying from members. Sales at NIKE-owned stores accelerated more than 50% due to the return of traffic to physical stores and enhanced experiences.However, the North America business witnessed headwinds from highly elevated in-transit inventory levels due to the deterioration of transit times in North America in the last reported quarter. The transit time has now almost doubled from the pre-pandemic levels, affecting product availability across the market and its ability to serve consumer demand, particularly in the Wholesale channel. NIKE-owned inventory rose 12% year over year. Closeout inventory levels declined in double-digits from the year-ago quarter.In EMEA, the company’s revenues rose 14% on a reported basis and 8% on a currency-neutral basis to $3,307 million. Growth was driven by the EURO this summer, with NIKE players scoring higher goals than all other brands combined. The company’s Mercurial boots accounted for more than half of these goals, resulting in higher demand for the Mercurial boot and replica jerseys during the tournament.The NIKE Direct business improved 10% on a currency-neutral basis, driven by growth at NIKE stores. Traffic at EMEA stores increased year over year in double-digits coupled with better-than-anticipated conversions. NIKE Digital was up 2%. Demand for full-priced products rose 30% from last year’s higher liquidation levels. NIKE-owned inventory fell 14% in EMEA, while closeout inventory declined in double-digits. The decline is attributed to the further deterioration of transit times in EMEA in the last 90 days, leading to higher in-transit inventory and affecting the product availability to meet demand.In Greater China, revenues increased 11% year over year on a reported basis and 1% on a currency-neutral basis in the fiscal fourth quarter to $1,982 million. Revenues improved in line with an expected recovery in the market. Retail sales in late July and August were impacted by regional closures and lower foot traffic due to COVID-19 infections in the region. Prior to late July, the company witnessed recovery in traffic at physical stores, with traffic levels coming close to the prior-year levels. NIKE Direct declined 3% in the fiscal first quarter partly due to the closure of NIKE-owned stores. NIKE Digital declined 6% compared with the higher liquidation in the prior year. This was partly negated by double-digit growth in full-price sales.In APLA, NIKE revenues advanced 33% on a reported basis and 31% on a currency-neutral basis to $1,465 million. Revenues were aided by growth across all regions, led by Japan, SOKO, Korea and Mexico, offset by muted growth in the Pacific and Southeast Asia, and India due to COVID restrictions. NIKE Digital rose more than 60% on a currency-neutral basis due to the expansion of the NIKE App.Revenues at the Converse brand improved 12% on a reported basis to $629 million. On a currency-neutral basis, revenues of the segment were up 7%, backed by strong Direct-to-consumer revenues in North America and Europe.Costs & MarginsThe gross profit advanced 20% year over year to $5,696 million, while the gross margin expanded 170 basis points (bps) to 46.5%. Gross margin growth can be attributed to improved NIKE Direct margins, driven by higher full-price sales mix and favorable currency rates, offset by escalated product costs, owing to increased ocean freight costs.Selling and administrative expenses rose 20% to $3,572 million, driven by higher operating overhead and demand-creating expenses. As a percentage of sales, SG&A expenses increased 110 bps to 29.2% from the prior-year quarter.Demand-creation expenses increased 36% year over year to $918 million, owing to the normalization of spending at brand campaigns as the market laps the last year’s closures due to COVID-19, along with sustained investments in digital marketing to facilitate the rising digital demand.Operating overhead expenses were up 15% to $2.7 billion on higher wage-related expenses, increased technology investments to support digital transformation, and NIKE Direct variable costs.Balance Sheet & Shareholder-Friendly MovesNIKE ended first-quarter fiscal 2022 with cash and short-term investments of $13,695 million, up $4.2 billion from the last year. These included strong free cash flow generation, partly offset by cash dividends and share repurchases. It had long-term debt (excluding current maturities) of $9,415 million and shareholders’ equity of $14,343 million as of the end of the fiscal first quarter. As of Aug 31, 2021, inventories of $6,699 million were almost flat with the prior-year levels.In first-quarter fiscal 2022, the company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders, including dividend payouts of $435 million and share repurchases of $742 million. It completed share repurchases of 4.8 million shares under its $15-million program approved in June 2018 in the reported quarter. As of Aug 31, it repurchased 54.8 million shares for $5.4 billion under the aforesaid program.OutlookNIKE expects the consumer demand to remain at all times, driven by its strong customer connections and brand momentum. However, it remains uncertain regarding the global supply-chain headwinds that are looming in the industry. The supply-chain disruptions have been challenging for manufacturers and has significantly hampered the mobility of products across the globe. The company previously anticipated the delays in transit times to continue throughout fiscal 2022. The company notes that the transit times in North America and Europe have further deteriorated in the fiscal first quarter due to port and rail congestions, and labor shortages.In another development, the company is witnessed the sudden closure of manufacturing units of its factory partners in Vietnam and Indonesia due to COVID-related government mandates. Although the company stated that Indonesia is fully operational now, it expects the footwear factories in Vietnam to remain closed. The reopening and ramping up of the factories to full scale is likely to take time.Consequently, the company has lowered its fiscal 2022 guidance to reflect the impacts of 10-weeks of lost production in Vietnam since mid-July and expectations of the elevated transit times to remain consistent with the current levels.For fiscal 2022, the company anticipates revenue growth in the mid-single digits compared with low-double-digit growth mentioned earlier. Lowered sales are expected to result solely from the aforementioned supply-chain congestions. The company expects revenue growth to be flat to down in low-single digits, particularly in second-quarter fiscal 2022, owing to the impacts of the lost production due to factory closures and delayed delivery times for the holiday and spring seasons. The company expects the lost weeks of production and the longer transit times to result in short-term inventory shortages in the market over the next few quarters.The company expects all of its geographic regions to be impacted by the difficult dynamics. However, some geographies in Asia, with less in-transit inventory at the end of the fiscal first quarter, are likely to witness uneven impacts in the second quarter.For the rest of fiscal 2022, the company anticipates the strong market demand to exceed the available supplies. Nonetheless, it remains optimistic of the inventory supply availability to improve going into fiscal 2023.The gross margin is now estimated to expand 125 bps in fiscal 2022, which is at the low-end of previously mentioned 125-150 bps growth. This growth is likely to be driven by the continued shift to the higher-margin NIKE Direct business, sustained strong full-priced sales and price increases in the second half. This is expected to be partly offset by 100 bps of incremental transportation, logistics and airfreight costs to move inventory in the current environment. The company now expects lower foreign currency tailwinds on gross margin in fiscal 2022, estimated at 60 bps.For the fiscal second quarter, it expects gross margin to expand at a lower rate than fiscal 2022 due to higher planned airfreight investments for the holiday season.The company expects SG&A growth in the mid-to-high teens for fiscal 2022. Earlier, it expected SG&A growth to slightly surpass revenue growth. The rise in SG&A expenses is likely to be driven by spends related to sporting events and investments against its largest opportunities. The effective tax rate is estimated to be in the mid-teens.Despite the near-term challenges, the company stated that it remains on track to reach its long-term financial targets for fiscal 2025 outlined in fourth-quarter fiscal 2021.3 Better-Ranked Stocks to WatchSteven Madden, Ltd. SHOO has a long-term earnings growth rate of 15%. It currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Carter’s, Inc. CRI has a long-term earnings growth rate of 21.1% and it flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 at present.Wolverine World Wide, Inc. WWW has a long-term earnings growth rate of 10%. The company currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report NIKE, Inc. (NKE): Free Stock Analysis Report Wolverine World Wide, Inc. (WWW): Free Stock Analysis Report Carters, Inc. (CRI): Free Stock Analysis Report Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

Why This 1 Computer and Technology Stock Could Be a Great Addition to Your Portfolio

Finding strong, market-beating stocks with a positive earnings outlook becomes easier with the Focus List, a top feature of the Zacks Premium portfolio service. Here at Zacks, we offer our members many different opportunities to take full advantage of the stock market, as well as how to invest in ways that lead to long-term success.The Zacks Premium service makes this easier. It features daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank; full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List; Equity Research reports; and Premium stock screens like the Earnings ESP filter. All of these can help you quickly identify what stocks to buy, what to sell, and what are today's hottest industries.Also included in Zacks Premium is the Focus List. This is a long-term portfolio of top stocks that have all the traits to beat the market.Breaking Down the Zacks Focus ListIf you could, wouldn't you jump at the chance for access to a curated list of stocks to kickstart your investing journey?That's what the Zacks Focus List, a portfolio of 50 stocks, offers investors. Not only does it serve as a starting point for long-term investors, but all stocks included in the list are poised to outperform the market over the next 12 months.What makes the Focus List even more helpful is that each selection is accompanied by a full Zacks Analyst Report, which explains the reasoning behind every stock's selection and why we believe it's a good pick for the long-term.The portfolio's past performance only solidifies why investors should consider it as a starting point. For 2020, the Focus List gained 13.85% on an annualized basis compared to the S&P 500's return of 9.38%. Cumulatively, the portfolio has returned 2,519.23% while the S&P returned 854.95%. Returns are for the period of February 1, 1996 to March 31, 2021.Focus List MethodologyWhen stocks are picked for the Focus List, it reflects our enduring reliance on the power of earnings estimate revisions.Brokerage analysts are in charge of determining a company's growth and profitability expectations, or earnings estimates. These analysts work together with company management to evaluate all factors that may affect future earnings, like interest rates, the economy, and sector and industry optimism.What a company will earn down the road also needs to be taken into consideration, and this is why earnings estimate revisions are so important.The stocks that receive positive changes to earnings estimates are more likely to receive even more upward changes in the future. Take this example: if an analyst raised their estimates last month, they'll probably do so again this month, and other analysts will follow.Utilizing the power of earnings estimate revisions is when the Zacks Rank joins the party. A unique, proprietary stock-rating model, the Zacks Rank uses changes to quarterly earnings expectations to help investors create a winning portfolio.Four primary factors make up the Zacks Rank: Agreement, Magnitude, Upside, and Surprise. Each is given a raw score that's recalculated every night and compiled into the Rank, and with this data, stocks are then classified into five groups, ranging from "Strong Buy" to "Strong Sell."The Focus List is comprised of stocks hand-picked from a long list of #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy) ranked companies, meaning that each new addition boasts a bullish earnings consensus among analysts.It can be very profitable to buy stocks with rising earnings estimates, as stock prices respond to revisions. By adding Focus List stocks, there's a great chance you'll be getting into companies whose future earnings estimates will be raised, which can lead to price momentum.Focus List Spotlight: Square (SQ)Headquartered in San Francisco, CA, Square, Inc. was incorporated in 2015. The company offers financial and marketing services through its comprehensive commerce ecosystem that helps sellers to start, run and grow their businesses.Since being added to the Focus List on March 28, 2017 at $17.25 per share, shares of SQ have increased 1446.2% to $266.72. The stock is currently a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank.For fiscal 2021, 10 analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.36 to $1.87. SQ boasts an average earnings surprise of 111.1%.Earnings for SQ are forecasted to see growth of 122.6% for the current fiscal year as well.Reveal Winning StocksUnlock all of our powerful research, tools and analysis, including the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research Reports, Zacks Earnings ESP Filter, Premium Screener and more, as part of Zacks Premium. You'll quickly identify which stocks to buy, hold and sell, and target today's hottest industries, to help improve the performance of your portfolio. Gain full access now >> Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Square, Inc. (SQ): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

Why This 1 Computer and Technology Stock Could Be a Great Addition to Your Portfolio

Finding strong, market-beating stocks with a positive earnings outlook becomes easier with the Focus List, a top feature of the Zacks Premium portfolio service. Here at Zacks, we offer our members many different opportunities to take full advantage of the stock market, as well as how to invest in ways that lead to long-term success.The Zacks Premium service, which provides daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank; full access to the Zacks #1 Rank List; Equity Research reports; and Premium stock screens like the Earnings ESP filter, makes these more manageable goals. All of the features can help you identify what stocks to buy, what to sell, and what are today's hottest industries.The service also includes the Focus List, which is a long-term portfolio of top stocks that boast a winning, market-beating combination of growth and momentum qualities.Breaking Down the Zacks Focus ListIf you could, wouldn't you jump at the chance for access to a curated list of stocks to kickstart your investing journey?That's what the Zacks Focus List, a portfolio of 50 stocks, offers investors. Not only does it serve as a starting point for long-term investors, but all stocks included in the list are poised to outperform the market over the next 12 months.What makes the Focus List even more helpful is that each selection is accompanied by a full Zacks Analyst Report, which explains the reasoning behind every stock's selection and why we believe it's a good pick for the long-term.The portfolio's past performance only solidifies why investors should consider it as a starting point. For 2020, the Focus List gained 13.85% on an annualized basis compared to the S&P 500's return of 9.38%. Cumulatively, the portfolio has returned 2,519.23% while the S&P returned 854.95%. Returns are for the period of February 1, 1996 to March 31, 2021.Focus List MethodologyWhen stocks are picked for the Focus List, it reflects our enduring reliance on the power of earnings estimate revisions.Brokerage analysts are in charge of determining a company's growth and profitability expectations, or earnings estimates. These analysts work together with company management to evaluate all factors that may affect future earnings, like interest rates, the economy, and sector and industry optimism.Investors also need to look at what a company will earn down the road. This is why earnings estimate revisions are so important.The stocks that receive positive changes to earnings estimates are more likely to receive even more upward changes in the future. Take this example: if an analyst raised their estimates last month, they'll probably do so again this month, and other analysts will follow.Harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions is where the Zacks Rank comes in. The Zacks Rank is a unique, proprietary stock-rating model that utilizes changes to a company's quarterly earnings expectations to help investors build a winning portfolio.Four primary factors make up the Zacks Rank: Agreement, Magnitude, Upside, and Surprise. Each is given a raw score that's recalculated every night and compiled into the Rank, and with this data, stocks are then classified into five groups, ranging from "Strong Buy" to "Strong Sell."The Focus List is comprised of stocks hand-picked from a long list of #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy) ranked companies, meaning that each new addition boasts a bullish earnings consensus among analysts.It can be very profitable to buy stocks with rising earnings estimates, as stock prices respond to revisions. By adding Focus List stocks, there's a great chance you'll be getting into companies whose future earnings estimates will be raised, which can lead to price momentum.Focus List Spotlight: Nvidia (NVDA)NVIDIA Corporation is the worldwide leader in visual computing technologies and the inventor of the graphic processing unit, or GPU. Over the years, the company’s focus has evolved from PC graphics to artificial intelligence (AI) based solutions that now support high performance computing (HPC), gaming and virtual reality (VR) platforms.On May 20, 2019, NVDA was added to the Focus List at $39.13 per share. Shares have increased 474.55% to $224.82 since then, and the company is a #2 (Buy) on the Zacks Rank.For fiscal 2022, 13 analysts revised their earnings estimate upwards in the last 60 days, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.23 to $4.20. NVDA boasts an average earnings surprise of 9.6%.Earnings for NVDA are forecasted to see growth of 68% for the current fiscal year as well.Reveal Winning StocksUnlock all of our powerful research, tools and analysis, including the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research Reports, Zacks Earnings ESP Filter, Premium Screener and more, as part of Zacks Premium. You'll quickly identify which stocks to buy, hold and sell, and target today's hottest industries, to help improve the performance of your portfolio. Gain full access now >> Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

Of the 4,385 reported incidents of air rage this year, only one person has been criminally charged

Interfering with flight crews is a Federal crime, but criminal charges against unruly passengers have been extremely rare. Flight attendants they have gotten sick less due to pandemic-era cleaning protocols. Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images The FAA has received 4,385 reports of unruly passengers and opened 789 investigations this year. Of those, only one case has had criminal charges filed by the Department of Justice. Arline workers told Congress the lack of criminal enforcement puts public safety at risk. See more stories on Insider's business page. In a year with record levels of conflict aboard commercial airlines, the US Federal Aviation Administration has posted some shocking numbers: 4,385 reports of unruly passengers; 789 investigations; 162 enforcement cases; $1.1 million in fines.But there's one number that lags noticeably behind the rest: criminal charges for passengers who have assaulted flight crews or otherwise interfered with their duties.As a civil authority, the FAA cannot criminally charge anyone, so criminal cases in aviation are the purview of the FBI and the Department of Justice.To say there is a hitch in the enforcement process would be an understatement.So far, after thousands of reports and hundreds of in-flight incident investigations this year alone, the only person to be charged is Vyvianna Quinonez, who was filmed in May punching a flight attendant in the face as a Southwest flight approached San Diego.According to a complaint filed earlier this month in US District Court in San Diego, Quinonez was also charged with interfering with flight crew members and attendants. Quinonez reportedly told law enforcement at the time of her arrest that she was acting in self defense.Federal aviation regulations allow the FAA to impose fines of up to $35,000, but the criminal penalties - up to 20 years in prison if convicted of interfering with the operation of an aircraft - require the DOJ to prosecute a case. A DOJ spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Sara Nelson, International President of the Association of Flight Attendants, told the House Subcommittee on Aviation that members of her union are frustrated by the lack of meaningful penalties when they try to enforce the rules in the air."We tell them [passengers] that it is a federal offense to not comply with crew member instructions," Nelson quoted one member as saying. "Then the plane is met by airline supervisors or airport law enforcement and the passenger gets a slap on the wrist and sent on their way."Nelson called the numbers "staggering" and predicted that there would be more incidents in 2021 than in the entire history of commercial aviation if trends continue.For its part, the FAA has taken steps to escalate the severity of consequences for bad behavior in-flight under a zero-tolerance policy Administrator Steve Dickson rolled out earlier this year. Under the new policy, counseling and warnings are off the table - all passengers found guilty of unruly behavior will be fined.But getting the criminal side of the equation to work requires even greater coordination of public, private, state, local, and federal departments than has been happening so far. In an open letter to airport leaders, Dickson begged for greater cooperation from local law enforcement to lay the groundwork for cases that the DOJ can use."Every week, we see situations in which law enforcement was asked to meet an aircraft at the gate following an unruly passenger incident," he wrote. "Many of these passengers were interviewed by local police and released without criminal charges of any kind.""When this occurs, we miss a key opportunity to hold unruly passengers accountable for their unacceptable and dangerous behavior," he added.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderSep 24th, 2021

United Natural (UNFI) Queued for Q4 Earnings: Factors to Watch

United Natural's (UNFI) fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 results are likely to reflect e-commerce strength and benefits from buyouts, while higher costs might have been a concern. United Natural Foods, Inc. UNFI is likely to display year-over-year growth in the top line, when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 numbers on Sep 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $6,874 million, suggesting a rise of 1.8% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has remained unchanged over the past 30 days at 81 cents per share, which, however, indicates a decline of 23.6% from the figure reported in the prior-year period. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 1.1%. This distributor of natural, organic, specialty, produce, and conventional grocery and non-food products has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 14%, on average.United Natural Foods, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise United Natural Foods, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | United Natural Foods, Inc. QuoteKey Factors to NoteUnited Natural’s sales are benefiting from e-commerce strength, thanks to the increased e-commerce solutions offered by the company. A number of the company’s Independents channel and a greater proportion of the Chains channel now provide e-commerce solutions to their customers. Recently, it also widened its digital ordering and delivery to include every Cub liquor and Wine & Spirits locations. Apart from this, benefits from buyouts have been a driver for United Natural.  In this regard, the addition of SUPERVALU (acquired in October 2018) has been driving United Natural’s performance, owing to the enhanced scale of the combined entities. That said, any rise in operating costs and promotional expense is a concern.What the Zacks Model UnveilsOur proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for United Natural this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP, and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.United Natural currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.Stocks With Favorable CombinationsHere are some companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.Hershey HSY has an Earnings ESP of +6.88% and carries a Zacks Rank #3, at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Kellogg K has an Earnings ESP of +2.51% and currently holds a Zacks Rank #3.Mondelez International MDLZ has an Earnings ESP of +0.18% and carries a Zacks Rank #3, currently. Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Hershey Company The (HSY): Free Stock Analysis Report Kellogg Company (K): Free Stock Analysis Report United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI): Free Stock Analysis Report Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

Futures Slide Alongside Cryptocurrencies Amid China Crackdown

Futures Slide Alongside Cryptocurrencies Amid China Crackdown US futures and European stocks fell amid ongoing nerves over the Evergrande default, while cryptocurrency-linked stocks tumbled after the Chinese central bank said such transactions are illegal. Sovereign bond yields fluctuated after an earlier selloff fueled by the prospect of tighter monetary policy. At 745am ET, S&P 500 e-minis were down 19.5 points, or 0.43%, Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 88.75 points, or 0.58% and Dow e-minis were down 112 points, or 0.33%. In the biggest overnight news, Evergrande offshore creditors remain in limbo and still haven't received their coupon payment effectively starting the 30-day grace period, while also in China, the State Planner issued a notice on the crackdown of cryptocurrency mining, will strictly prohibit financing for new crypto mining projects and strengthen energy consumption controls of new crypto mining projects. Subsequently, the PBoC issued a notice to further prevent and dispose of the risks from speculating on cryptocurrencies, to strengthen monitoring of risks from crypto trading and such activities are illegal. The news sent the crypto space tumbling as much as 8% while cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slumped in U.S. premarket trading. Marathon Digital (MARA) drops 6.5%, Bit Digital (BTBT) declines 4.7%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT) -5.9%, Coinbase -2.8%. Big banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp slipped about 0.5%, while oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp were down 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in premarket trading.Mega-cap FAAMG tech giants fell between 0.5% and 0.6%. Nike shed 4.6% after the sportswear maker cut its fiscal 2022 sales expectations and warned of delays during the holiday shopping season. Several analysts lowered their price targets on the maker of sports apparel and sneakers after the company cut its FY revenue growth guidance to mid-single- digits. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Helbiz (HLBZ) falls 10% after the micromobility company filed with the SEC for the sale of as many as 11m shares by stockholders. Focus Universal (FCUV), an online marketing company that’s been a favorite of retail traders, surged 26% in premarket trading after the stock was cited on Stocktwits in recent days. Vail Resorts (MTN) falls 2.7% in postmarket trading after its full-year forecasts for Ebitda and net income missed at the midpoint. GlycoMimetics (GLYC) jumps 15% postmarket after announcing that efficacy and safety data from a Phase 1/2 study of uproleselan in patients with acute myeloid leukemia were published in the journal Blood on Sept. 16. VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) surges 30% after company says its HPP737 psoriasis treatment showed favorable safety and tolerability profile in a multiple ascending dose study. Fears about a sooner-than-expected tapering amid signs of stalling U.S. economic growth and concerns over a spillover from China Evergrande’s default had rattled investors in September, putting the benchmark S&P 500 index on course to snap a seven-month winning streak. Elaine Stokes, a portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., told Bloomberg Television, adding that “what they did is tell us that they feel really good about the economy.” While the bond selloff vindicated Treasury bears who argue yields are too low to reflect fundamentals, others see limits to how high they can go. “We’d expected bond yields to go higher, given the macro situation where growth is still very strong,” Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist with JPMorgan Asset Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “But we do stress that is a modest view, because we think that upside to yields is still limited from here given that central banks including the Fed are still buying bonds.” Still, Wall Street’s main indexes rallied in the past two session and are set for small weekly gains. European equities dipped at the open but trade off worst levels, with the Euro Stoxx 50 sliding as much as 1.1% before climbing off the lows. France's CAC underperformed at the margin. Retail, financial services are the weakest performers. EQT AB, Europe’s biggest listed private equity firm, fell as much as 8.1% after Sweden’s financial watchdog opened an investigation into suspected market abuse. Here are some of the other biggest European movers today: SMCP shares surge as much as 9.9%, advancing for a 9th session in 10, amid continued hopes the financial troubles of its top shareholder will ultimately lead to a sale TeamViewer climbs much as 4.2% after Bankhaus Metzler initiated coverage with a buy rating, citing the company’s above-market growth AstraZeneca gains as much as 3.6% after its Lynparza drug met the primary endpoint in a prostate cancer trial Darktrace drops as much as 9.2%, paring the stock’s rally over the past few weeks, as a technical pattern triggered a sell signal Adidas and Puma fall as much as 4% and 2.9%, respectively, after U.S. rival Nike’s “large cut” to FY sales guidance, which Jefferies said would “likely hurt” shares of European peers Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for a second day, led by rallies in Japan and Taiwan, following U.S. peers higher amid optimism over the Federal Reserve’s bullish economic outlook and fading concerns over widespread contagion from Evergrande. Stocks were muted in China and Hong Kong. India’s S&P BSE Sensex topped the 60,000 level for the first time on Friday on optimism that speedier vaccinations will improve demand for businesses in Asia’s third-largest economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%, with TSMC and Sony the biggest boosts. That trimmed the regional benchmark’s loss for the week to about 1%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.1%, reopening after a holiday, pushing its advance for September to 7.7%, the best among major global gauges. The Asian regional benchmark pared its gain as Hong Kong stocks fell sharply in late afternoon trading amid continued uncertainty, with Evergrande giving no sign of making an interest payment that was due Thursday. Among key upcoming events is the leadership election for Japan’s ruling party next week, which will likely determine the country’s next prime minister. “Investor concerns over the Evergrande issue have retreated a bit for now,” said Hajime Sakai, chief fund manager at Mito Securities Co. in Tokyo. “But investors will have to keep downside risk in the corner of their minds.” Indian stocks rose, pushing the Sensex above 60,000 for the first time ever. Key gauges fell in Singapore, Malaysia and Australia, while the Thai market was closed for a holiday. Treasuries are higher as U.S. trading day begins after rebounding from weekly lows reached during Asia session, adding to Thursday’s losses. The 10-year yield was down 1bp at ~1.42%, just above the 100-DMA breached on Thursday for the first time in three months; it climbed to 1.449% during Asia session, highest since July 6, and remains 5.2bp higher on the week, its fifth straight weekly increase. Several Fed speakers are slated, first since Wednesday’s FOMC commentary set forth a possible taper timeline.  Bunds and gilts recover off cheapest levels, curves bear steepening. USTs bull steepen, richening 1.5bps from the 10y point out. Peripheral spreads are wider. BTP spreads widen 2-3bps to Bunds. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed back from a one-week low as concern about possible contagion from Evergrande added to buying of the greenback based on the Federal Reserve tapering timeline signaled on Wednesday. NZD, AUD and CAD sit at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. ZAR and TRY are the weakest in EM FX. The pound fell after its rally on Thursday as investors looked ahead to BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s sPeech next week about a possible interest-rate hike. Traders are betting that in a contest to raise borrowing costs first, the Bank of England will be the runaway winner over the Federal Reserve. The New Zealand and Aussie dollars led declines among Group-of-10 peers. The euro was trading flat, with a week full of events failing “to generate any clear directional move,” said ING analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner. German IFO sentiment indeces will “provide extra indications about the area’s sentiment as  businesses faced a combination of delta variant concerns and lingering supply disruptions”. The Norwegian krone is the best performing currency among G10 peers this week, with Thursday’s announcement from the Norges Bank offering support In commodities, crude futures hold a narrow range up around best levels for the week. WTI stalls near $73.40, Brent near $77.50. Spot gold extends Asia’s gains, adding $12 on the session to trade near $1,755/oz. Base metals are mixed, LME nickel and aluminum drop ~1%, LME tin outperforms with a 2.8% rally. Bitcoin dips after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal. Looking to the day ahead now, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,423.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 464.18 German 10Y yield fell 8.5 bps to -0.236% Euro little changed at $1.1737 MXAP up 0.4% to 201.25 MXAPJ down 0.5% to 643.20 Nikkei up 2.1% to 30,248.81 Topix up 2.3% to 2,090.75 Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 24,192.16 Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,613.07 Sensex up 0.2% to 60,031.83 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,342.60 Kospi little changed at 3,125.24 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $77.57/bbl Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,755.38 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.14 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg China Evergrande Group’s unusual silence about a dollar-bond interest payment that was due Thursday has put a focus on what might happen during a 30-day grace period. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target is increasingly out of step with international counterparts and fails to account for structural changes in the country’s economy over the past 30 years, Westpac Banking Corp.’s Bill Evans said. With central banks from Washington to London this week signaling more alarm over faster inflation, the ultra-stimulative path of the euro zone and some of its neighbors appears lonelier than ever. China’s central bank continued to pump liquidity into the financial system on Friday as policy makers sought to avoid contagion stemming from China Evergrande Group spreading to domestic markets. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mixed with the region failing to fully sustain the impetus from the positive performance across global counterparts after the silence from Evergrande and lack of coupon payments for its offshore bonds, stirred uncertainty for the company. ASX 200 (-0.4%) was negative as underperformance in mining names and real estate overshadowed the advances in tech and resilience in financials from the higher yield environment. Nikkei 225 (+2.1%) was the biggest gainer overnight as it played catch up to the prior day’s recovery on return from the Autumnal Equinox holiday in Japan and with exporters cheering the recent risk-conducive currency flows, while KOSPI (-0.1%) was lacklustre amid the record daily COVID-19 infections and after North Korea deemed that it was premature to declare that the Korean War was over. Hang Seng (-1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) were indecisive after further liquidity efforts by the PBoC were offset by concerns surrounding Evergrande after the Co. failed to make coupon payments due yesterday for offshore bonds but has a 30-day grace period with the Co. remaining quiet on the issue. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower on spillover selling from global counterparts including the declines in T-notes as the US 10yr yield breached 1.40% for the first time since early-July with the pressure in bonds also stemming from across the Atlantic following a more hawkish BoE, while the presence of the BoJ in the market today for over JPY 1.3tln of government bonds with 1yr-10yr maturities did very little to spur prices. Top Asian News Rivals for Prime Minister Battle on Social Media: Japan Election Asian Stocks Rise for Second Day, Led by Gains in Japan, Taiwan Hong Kong Stocks Still Wagged by Evergrande Tail Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index Extends Decline to More Than 2% European equities (Stoxx 600 -0.9%) are trading on the back foot in the final trading session of the week amid further advances in global bond yields and a mixed APAC handover. Overnight, saw gains for the Nikkei 225 of 2.1% with the index aided by favourable currency flows, whilst Chinese markets lagged (Shanghai Comp. -0.8%, Hang Seng -1.6%) with further liquidity efforts by the PBoC offset by concerns surrounding Evergrande after the Co. failed to make coupon payments due yesterday for offshore bonds. As context, despite the losses in Europe today, the Stoxx 600 is still higher by some 1.2% on the week. Stateside, futures are also on a softer footing with the ES down by 0.4% ahead of a busy Fed speaker schedule. Back to Europe, sectors are lower across the board with Retail and Personal & Household Goods lagging peers. The former has been hampered by losses in Adidas (-3.0%) following after hours earnings from Nike (-4.2% pre-market) which saw the Co. cut its revenue guidance amid supply chain woes. AstraZeneca (+2.1%) sits at the top of the FTSE 100 after announcing that the Lynparza PROpel trial met its primary endpoint. Daimler’s (+0.1%) Mercedes-Benz has announced that it will take a 33% stake in a battery cell manufacturing JV with Total and Stellantis. EQT (-6.5%) sits at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the Swedish FSA announced it will open an investigation into the Co. Top European News EQT Investigated by Sweden’s FSA Over Suspected Market Abuse Gazprom Says Claims of Gas Under-supply to Europe Are ‘Absurd’ German Sept. Ifo Business Confidence 98.8; Est. 99 German Business Index at Five-Month Low in Pre-Election Verdict In FX, the rot seems to have stopped for the Buck in terms of its sharp and marked fall from grace amidst post-FOMC reflection and re-positioning in the financial markets on Thursday. Indeed, the Dollar index has regained some poise to hover above the 93.000 level having recoiled from 93.526 to 92.977 over the course of yesterday’s hectic session that saw the DXY register a marginal new w-t-d high and low at either end of the spectrum. Pre-weekend short covering and consolidation may be giving the Greenback a lift, while the risk backdrop is also less upbeat ahead of a raft of Fed speakers flanking US new home sales data. Elsewhere, the Euro remains relatively sidelined and contained against the Buck with little independent inspiration from the latest German Ifo survey as the business climate deteriorated broadly in line with consensus and current conditions were worse than forecast, but business expectations were better than anticipated. Hence, Eur/Usd is still stuck in a rut and only briefly/fractionally outside 1.1750-00 parameters for the entire week, thus far, as hefty option expiry interest continues to keep the headline pair in check. However, there is significantly less support or gravitational pull at the round number today compared to Thursday as ‘only’ 1.3 bn rolls off vs 4.1 bn, and any upside breach could be capped by 1.1 bn between 1.1765-85. CAD/NZD/AUD - Some payback for the non-US Dollars following their revival, with the Loonie waning from 1.2650+ peaks ahead of Canadian budget balances, though still underpinned by crude as WTI hovers around Usd 73.50/brl and not far from decent option expiries (from 1.2655-50 and 1.2625-30 in 1.4 bn each). Similarly, the Kiwi has faded after climbing to within single digits of 0.7100 in wake of NZ trade data overnight revealing a much wider deficit as exports slowed and imports rose, while the Aussie loses grip of the 0.7300 handle and skirts 1.1 bn option expiries at 0.7275. CHF/GBP/JPY - The Franc is fairly flat and restrained following a dovish SNB policy review that left in lagging somewhat yesterday, with Usd/Chf and Eur/Chf straddling 0.9250 and 1.0850 respectively, in contrast to Sterling that is paring some hawkish BoE momentum, as Cable retreats to retest bids circa 1.3700 and Eur/Gbp bounces from sub-0.8550. Elsewhere, the Yen has not been able to fend off further downside through 110.00 even though Japanese participants have returned to the fray after the Autumn Equinox holiday and reports suggest some COVID-19 restrictions may be lifted in 13 prefectures on a trial basis. SCANDI/EM/PM/CRYPTO - A slight change in the pecking order in Scandi-land as the Nok loses some post-Norges Bank hike impetus and the Sek unwinds a bit of its underperformance, but EM currencies are bearing the brunt of the aforementioned downturn in risk sentiment and firmer Usd, with the Zar hit harder than other as Gold is clings to Usd 1750/oz and Try down to deeper post-CBRT rate cut lows after mixed manufacturing sentiment and cap u readings. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being shackled by the latest Chinese crackdown on mining and efforts to limit risks from what it describes as unlawful speculative crypto currency trading. In commodities, WTI and Brent are set the conclude the week in the green with gains in excess of 2% for WTI at the time of writing; in-spite of the pressure seen in the complex on Monday and the first-half of Tuesday, where a sub USD 69.50/bbl low was printed. Fresh newsflow has, once again, been limited for the complex and continues to focus on the gas situation. More broadly, no update as of yet on the Evergrande interest payment and by all accounts we appear to have entered the 30-day grace period for this and, assuming catalysts remain slim, updates on this will may well dictate the state-of-play. Schedule wise, the session ahead eyes significant amounts of central bank commentary but from a crude perspective the weekly Baker Hughes rig count will draw attention. On the weather front, Storm Sam has been upgraded to a Hurricane and is expected to rapidly intensify but currently remains someway into the mid-Atlantic. Moving to metals, LME copper is pivoting the unchanged mark after a mixed APAC lead while attention is on Glencore’s CSA copper mine, which it has received an offer for; the site in 2020 produced circa. 46k/T of copper which is typically exported to Asia smelters. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are firmer but have been very contained and remain well-within overnight ranges thus far. Which sees the yellow metal holding just above the USD 1750/oz mark after a brief foray below the level after the US-close. US Event Calendar 10am: Aug. New Home Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0% 10am: Aug. New Home Sales, est. 715,000, prior 708,000 Central Bank Speakers 8:45am: Fed’s Mester Discusses the Economic Outlook 10am: Powell, Clarida and Bowman Host Fed Listens Event 10:05am: Fed’s George Discusses Economic Outlook 12pm: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Equitable Community Development DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap WFH today is a bonus as it’s time for the annual ritual at home where the latest, sleekest, shiniest iPhone model arrives in the post and i sheepishly try to justify to my wife when I get home why I need an incremental upgrade. This year to save me from the Spanish Inquisition I’m going to intercept the courier and keep quiet. Problem is that such speed at intercepting the delivery will be logistically challenging as I remain on crutches (5 weeks to go) and can’t grip properly with my left hand due to an ongoing trapped nerve. I’m very glad I’m not a racehorse. Although hopefully I can be put out to pasture in front of the Ryder Cup this weekend. The big news of the last 24 hours has been a galloping global yield rise worthy of the finest thoroughbred. A hawkish Fed meeting, with the dots increasing and the end of QE potentially accelerated, didn’t quite have the ability to move markets but the global dam finally broke yesterday with Norway being the highest profile developed country to raise rates this cycle (expected), but more importantly a Bank of England meeting that saw the market reappraise rate hikes. Looking at the specific moves, yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +13.0bps to 1.430% in their biggest daily increase since 25 February, as both higher real rates (+7.9bps) and inflation breakevens (+4.9bps) drove the advance. US 10yr yields had been trading in a c.10bp range for the last month before breaking out higher, though they have been trending higher since dropping as far as 1.17% back in early-August. US 30yr yields rose +13.2bps, which was the biggest one day move in long dated yields since March 17 2020, which was at the onset of the pandemic and just days after the Fed announced it would be starting the current round of QE. The large selloff in US bonds saw the yield curve steepen and the long-end give back roughly half of the FOMC flattening from the day before. The 5y30y curve steepened 3.4bps for a two day move of -3.3bps. However the 2y10y curve steepened +10.5bps, completely reversing the prior day’s flattening (-4.2bps) and leaving the spread at 116bp, the steepest level since first week of July. 10yr gilt yields saw nearly as strong a move (+10.8bps) with those on shorter-dated 2yr gilts (+10.7bps) hitting their highest level (0.386%) since the pandemic began.That came on the back of the BoE’s latest policy decision, which pointed in a hawkish direction, building on the comment in the August statement that “some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period is likely to be necessary” by saying that “some developments during the intervening period appear to have strengthened that case”. The statement pointed out that the rise in gas prices since August represented an upside risks to their inflation projections from next April, and the MPC’s vote also saw 2 members (up from 1 in August) vote to dial back QE. See DB’s Sanjay Raja’s revised rate hike forecasts here. We now expect a 15bps hike in February. The generalised move saw yields in other European countries rise as well, with those on 10yr bunds (+6.6bps), OATs (+6.5bps) and BTPs (+5.7bps) all seeing big moves higher with 10yr bunds seeing their biggest climb since late-February and back to early-July levels as -0.258%. The yield rise didn’t stop equity indices recovering further from Monday’s rout, with the S&P 500 up +1.21% as the index marked its best performance in over 2 months, and its best 2-day performance since May. Despite the mood at the end of the weekend, the S&P now starts Friday in positive territory for the week. The rally yesterday was led by cyclicals for a second straight day with higher commodity prices driving outsized gains for energy (+3.41%) and materials (+1.39%) stocks, and the aforementioned higher yields causing banks (+3.37%) and diversified financials (+2.35%) to outperform. The reopening trade was the other main beneficiary as airlines rose +2.99% and consumer services, which include hotel and cruiseline companies, gained +1.92%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.93%) witnessed a similarly strong performance, with index led by banks (+2.16%). As a testament to the breadth of yesterday’s rally, the travel and leisure sector (+0.04%) was the worst performing sector on this side of the Atlantic even while registering a small gain and lagging its US counterparts. Before we get onto some of yesterday’s other events, it’s worth noting that this is actually the last EMR before the German election on Sunday, which has long been signposted as one of the more interesting macro events on the 2021 calendar, the results of which will play a key role in not just domestic, but also EU policy. And with Chancellor Merkel stepping down after four terms in office, this means that the country will soon be under new management irrespective of who forms a government afterwards. It’s been a volatile campaign in many respects, with Chancellor Merkel’s CDU/CSU, the Greens and the centre-left SPD all having been in the lead at various points over the last six months. But for the last month Politico’s Poll of Polls has shown the SPD consistently ahead, with their tracker currently putting them on 25%, ahead of the CDU/CSU on 22% and the Greens on 16%. However the latest poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen yesterday suggested a tighter race with the SPD at 25, the CDU/CSU at 23% and the Greens at 16.5%. If the actual results are in line with the recent averages, it would certainly mark a sea change in German politics, as it would be the first time that the SPD have won the popular vote since the 2002 election. Furthermore, it would be the CDU/CSU’s worst ever result, and mark the first time in post-war Germany that the two main parties have failed to win a majority of the vote between them, which mirrors the erosion of the traditional big parties in the rest of continental Europe. For the Greens, 15% would be their best ever score, and exceed the 9% they got back in 2017 that left them in 6th place, but it would also be a disappointment relative to their high hopes back in the spring, when they were briefly polling in the mid-20s after Annalena Baerbock was selected as their Chancellor candidate. In terms of when to expect results, the polls close at 17:00 London time, with initial exit polls released immediately afterwards. However, unlike the UK, where a new majority government can immediately come to power the day after the election, the use of proportional representation in Germany means that it could potentially be weeks or months before a new government is formed. Indeed, after the last election in September 2017, it wasn’t until March 2018 that the new grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD took office, after attempts to reach a “Jamaica” coalition between the CDU/CSU, the FDP and the Greens was unsuccessful. In the meantime, the existing government will act as a caretaker administration. On the policy implications, it will of course depend on what sort of government is actually formed, but our research colleagues in Frankfurt have produced a comprehensive slidepack (link here) running through what the different parties want across a range of policies, and what the likely coalitions would mean for Germany. They also put out another note yesterday (link here) where they point out that there’s still much to play for, with the SPD’s lead inside the margin of error and with an unusually high share of yet undecided voters. Moving on to Asia and markets are mostly higher with the Nikkei (+2.04%), CSI (+0.53%) and India’s Nifty (+0.52%) up while the Hang Seng (-0.03%), Shanghai Comp (-0.07%) and Kospi (-0.10%) have all made small moves lower. Meanwhile, the Evergrande group missed its dollar bond coupon payment yesterday and so far there has been no communication from the group on this. They have a 30-day grace period to make the payment before any event of default can be declared. This follows instructions from China’s Financial regulators yesterday in which they urged the group to take all measures possible to avoid a near-term default on dollar bonds while focusing on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors. Yields on Australia and New Zealand’s 10y sovereign bonds are up +14.5bps and +11.3bps respectively this morning after yesterday’s move from their western counterparts. Yields on 10y USTs are also up a further +1.1bps to 1.443%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.04% while those on the Stoxx 50 are down -0.10%. In terms of overnight data, Japan’s August CPI printed at -0.4% yoy (vs. -0.3% yoy expected) while core was unchanged in line with expectations. We also received Japan’s flash PMIs with the services reading at 47.4 (vs. 42.9 last month) while the manufacturing reading came in at 51.2 (vs. 52.7 last month). In pandemic related news, Jiji reported that Japan is planning to conduct trials of easing Covid restrictions, with 13 prefectures indicating they’d like to participate. This is likely contributing to the outperformance of the Nikkei this morning. Back to yesterday now, and one of the main highlights came from the flash PMIs, which showed a continued deceleration in growth momentum across Europe and the US, and also underwhelmed relative to expectations. Running through the headline numbers, the Euro Area composite PMI fell to 56.1 (vs. 58.5 expected), which is the lowest figure since April, as both the manufacturing (58.7 vs 60.3 expected) and services (56.3 vs. 58.5 expected) came in beneath expectations. Over in the US, the composite PMI fell to 54.5 in its 4th consecutive decline, as the index hit its lowest level in a year, while the UK’s composite PMI at 54.1 (vs. 54.6 expected) was the lowest since February when the country was still in a nationwide lockdown. Risk assets seemed unperturbed by the readings, and commodities actually took another leg higher as they rebounded from their losses at the start of the week. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index rose +1.12% as Brent crude oil (+1.39%) closed at $77.25/bbl, which marked its highest closing level since late 2018, while WTI (+1.07%) rose to $73.30/bbl, so still a bit beneath its recent peak in July. However that is a decent rebound of roughly $11/bbl since its recent low just over a month ago. Elsewhere, gold (-1.44%) took a knock amidst the sharp move higher in yields, while European natural gas prices subsidised for a third day running, with futures now down -8.5% from their intraday peak on Tuesday, although they’re still up by +71.3% since the start of August. US negotiations regarding the upcoming funding bill and raising the debt ceiling are ongoing, with House Speaker Pelosi saying that the former, also called a continuing resolution, will pass “both houses by September 30,” and fund the government through the first part of the fiscal year, starting October 1. Treasury Secretary Yellen has said the US will likely breach the debt ceiling sometime in the next month if Congress does not increase the level, and because Republicans are unwilling to vote to raise the ceiling, Democrats will have to use the once-a-fiscal-year tool of budget reconciliation to do so. However Democrats, are also using that process for the $3.5 trillion dollar economic plan that makes up the bulk of the Biden agenda, and have not been able to get full party support yet. During a joint press conference with Speaker Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that Democrats have a “framework” to pay for the Biden Economic agenda, which would imply that the broad outline of a deal was reached between the House, Senate and the White House. However, no specifics were mentioned yesterday. With Democrats looking to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill early next week, negotiations today and this weekend on the potential reconciliation package will be vital. Looking at yesterday’s other data, the weekly initial jobless claims from the US for the week through September 18 unexpectedly rose to 351k (vs. 320k expected), which is the second week running they’ve come in above expectations. Separately, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index fell to 0.29 in August (vs. 0.50 expected), and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index also fell more than expected to 22 in September (vs. 25 expected). To the day ahead now, and data highlights include the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany for September, along with Italian consumer confidence for September and US new home sales for August. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/24/2021 - 08:12.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 24th, 2021

Freedom From Fear: Stop Playing The Government"s Mind Games

Freedom From Fear: Stop Playing The Government's Mind Games Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute, “No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices.” - Edward R. Murrow, broadcast journalist America is in the midst of an epidemic of historic proportions. The contagion being spread like wildfire is turning communities into battlegrounds and setting Americans one against the other. Normally mild-mannered individuals caught up in the throes of this disease have been transformed into belligerent zealots, while others inclined to pacifism have taken to stockpiling weapons and practicing defensive drills. This plague on our nation - one that has been spreading like wildfire - is a potent mix of fear coupled with unhealthy doses of paranoia and intolerance, tragic hallmarks of the post-9/11 America in which we live and the constantly shifting crises that keep the populace in a state of high alert. Everywhere you turn, those on both the left- and right-wing are fomenting distrust and division. You can’t escape it. We’re being fed a constant diet of fear: fear of a virus, fear of the unmasked, fear of terrorists, fear of illegal immigrants, fear of people who are too religious, fear of people who are not religious enough, fear of extremists, fear of the government, fear of those who fear the government. The list goes on and on. The strategy is simple yet effective: the best way to control a populace is through fear and discord. Fear makes people stupid. Confound them, distract them with mindless news chatter and entertainment, pit them against one another by turning minor disagreements into major skirmishes, and tie them up in knots over matters lacking in national significance. Most importantly, divide the people into factions, persuade them to see each other as the enemy and keep them screaming at each other so that they drown out all other sounds. In this way, they will never reach consensus about anything and will be too distracted to notice the police state closing in on them until the final crushing curtain falls. This is how free people enslave themselves and allow tyrants to prevail. This Machiavellian scheme has so ensnared the nation that few Americans even realize they are being manipulated into adopting an “us” against “them” mindset. Instead, fueled with fear and loathing for phantom opponents, they agree to pour millions of dollars and resources into political elections, militarized police, spy technology, endless wars, COVID-19 mandates, etc., hoping for a guarantee of safety that never comes. All the while, those in power—bought and paid for by lobbyists and corporations—move their costly agendas forward, and “we the suckers” get saddled with the tax bills and subjected to pat downs, police raids and round-the-clock surveillance. Turn on the TV or flip open the newspaper on any given day, and you will find yourself accosted by reports of government corruption, corporate malfeasance, militarized police, marauding SWAT teams, and egregious assaults on the rights of the citizenry. America has already entered a new phase, one in which communities are locked down, employees are forced to choose between keeping their jobs or exercising their freedoms, children are arrested in schools, military veterans are forcibly detained by government agents, and law-abiding Americans are finding their movements tracked, their financial transactions documented and their communications monitored. These threats are not to be underestimated. Yet even more dangerous than these violations of our basic rights is the language in which they are couched: the language of fear. It is a language spoken effectively by politicians on both sides of the aisle, shouted by media pundits from their cable TV pulpits, marketed by corporations, and codified into bureaucratic laws that do little to make our lives safer or more secure. Fear, as history shows, is the method most often used by politicians to increase the power of government. So far, these tactics are working. An atmosphere of fear permeates modern America. Each successive crisis in recent years (a COVID-19 pandemic, terrorism, etc.)—manufactured or legitimate—has succeeded in reducing the American people to what commentator Dan Sanchez refers to as “herd-minded hundreds of millions [who] will stampede to the State for security, bleating to please, please be shorn of their remaining liberties.” Sanchez continues: “I am not terrified of the terrorists; i.e., I am not, myself, terrorized. Rather, I am terrified of the terrorized; terrified of the bovine masses who are so easily manipulated by terrorists, governments, and the terror-amplifying media into allowing our country to slip toward totalitarianism and total war… “I do not irrationally and disproportionately fear Muslim bomb-wielding jihadists or white, gun-toting nutcases. But I rationally and proportionately fear those who do, and the regimes such terror empowers. History demonstrates that governments are capable of mass murder and enslavement far beyond what rogue militants can muster. Industrial-scale terrorists are the ones who wear ties, chevrons, and badges. But such terrorists are a powerless few without the supine acquiescence of the terrorized many. There is nothing to fear but the fearful themselves… “Stop swallowing the overblown scaremongering of the government and its corporate media cronies. Stop letting them use hysteria over small menaces to drive you into the arms of tyranny, which is the greatest menace of all.” As history makes clear, fear leads to fascistic, totalitarian regimes. It’s a simple enough formula. National crises, global pandemics, reported terrorist attacks, and sporadic shootings leave us in a constant state of fear. Fear prevents us from thinking. The emotional panic that accompanies fear actually shuts down the prefrontal cortex or the rational thinking part of our brains. In other words, when we are consumed by fear, we stop thinking. A populace that stops thinking for themselves is a populace that is easily led, easily manipulated and easily controlled. The following are a few of the necessary ingredients for a fascist state: The government is managed by a powerful leader (even if he or she assumes office by way of the electoral process). This is the fascistic leadership principle (or father figure). The government assumes it is not restrained in its power. This is authoritarianism, which eventually evolves into totalitarianism. The government ostensibly operates under a capitalist system while being undergirded by an immense bureaucracy. The government through its politicians emits powerful and continuing expressions of nationalism. The government has an obsession with national security while constantly invoking terrifying internal and external enemies. The government establishes a domestic and invasive surveillance system and develops a paramilitary force that is not answerable to the citizenry. The government and its various agencies (federal, state, and local) develop an obsession with crime and punishment. This is overcriminalization. The government becomes increasingly centralized while aligning closely with corporate powers to control all aspects of the country’s social, economic, military, and governmental structures. The government uses militarism as a center point of its economic and taxing structure. The government is increasingly imperialistic in order to maintain the military-industrial corporate forces. The parallels to modern America are impossible to ignore. “Every industry is regulated. Every profession is classified and organized,” writes Jeffrey Tucker. “Every good or service is taxed. Endless debt accumulation is preserved. Immense doesn’t begin to describe the bureaucracy. Military preparedness never stops, and war with some evil foreign foe, remains a daily prospect.” For the final hammer of fascism to fall, it will require the most crucial ingredient: the majority of the people will have to agree that it’s not only expedient but necessary. In times of “crisis,” expediency is upheld as the central principle—that is, in order to keep us safe and secure, the government must militarize the police, strip us of basic constitutional rights and criminalize virtually every form of behavior. Not only does fear grease the wheels of the transition to fascism by cultivating fearful, controlled, pacified, cowed citizens, but it also embeds itself in our very DNA so that we pass on our fear and compliance to our offspring. It’s called epigenetic inheritance, the transmission through DNA of traumatic experiences. For example, neuroscientists have observed how quickly fear can travel through generations of mice DNA. As The Washington Post reports: In the experiment, researchers taught male mice to fear the smell of cherry blossoms by associating the scent with mild foot shocks. Two weeks later, they bred with females. The resulting pups were raised to adulthood having never been exposed to the smell. Yet when the critters caught a whiff of it for the first time, they suddenly became anxious and fearful. They were even born with more cherry-blossom-detecting neurons in their noses and more brain space devoted to cherry-blossom-smelling. The conclusion? “A newborn mouse pup, seemingly innocent to the workings of the world, may actually harbor generations’ worth of information passed down by its ancestors.” Now consider the ramifications of inherited generations of fears and experiences on human beings. As the Post reports, “Studies on humans suggest that children and grandchildren may have felt the epigenetic impact of such traumatic events such as famine, the Holocaust and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.” As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, fear, trauma and compliance can be passed down through the generations. Fear has been a critical tool in past fascistic regimes, and it now operates in our contemporary world—all of which raises fundamental questions about us as human beings and what we will give up in order to perpetuate the illusions of safety and security. In the words of psychologist Erich Fromm: [C]an human nature be changed in such a way that man will forget his longing for freedom, for dignity, for integrity, for love—that is to say, can man forget he is human? Or does human nature have a dynamism which will react to the violation of these basic human needs by attempting to change an inhuman society into a human one? Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 23:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 24th, 2021

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week"s Release

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations. Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on lower revenues when Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) reports results for the quarter ended August 2021. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on September 30, 2021, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.Zacks Consensus EstimateThis home goods retailer is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.53 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +6%.Revenues are expected to be $2.06 billion, down 23.3% from the year-ago quarter.Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.Price, Consensus and EPS SurpriseEarnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Bed Bath & Beyond?For Bed Bath & Beyond, the Most Accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no recent analyst views which differ from what have been considered to derive the consensus estimate. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0%.On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Bed Bath & Beyond will beat the consensus EPS estimate.Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Bed Bath & Beyond would post earnings of $0.08 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.05, delivering a surprise of -37.50%.Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times.Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.Bed Bath & Beyond doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

CarMax (KMX) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week"s Release

CarMax (KMX) possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations. Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when CarMax (KMX) reports results for the quarter ended August 2021. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on September 30, 2021, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.Zacks Consensus EstimateThis used car dealership chain is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.87 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +4.5%.Revenues are expected to be $6.88 billion, up 28.1% from the year-ago quarter.Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 1.26% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.Price, Consensus and EPS SurpriseEarnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for CarMax?For CarMax, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +0.18%.On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.So, this combination indicates that CarMax will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.For the last reported quarter, it was expected that CarMax would post earnings of $1.61 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.63, delivering a surprise of +63.35%.Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.CarMax appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report CarMax, Inc. (KMX): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Paychex (PAYX) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week"s Release

Paychex (PAYX) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations. Paychex (PAYX) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended August 2021. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on September 30. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.Zacks Consensus EstimateThis payroll processor and human-resources services provider is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.81 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +28.6%.Revenues are expected to be $1.04 billion, up 11.3% from the year-ago quarter.Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.Price, Consensus and EPS SurpriseEarnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Paychex?For Paychex, the Most Accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no recent analyst views which differ from what have been considered to derive the consensus estimate. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0%.On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #4.So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Paychex will beat the consensus EPS estimate.Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Paychex would post earnings of $0.67 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.72, delivering a surprise of +7.46%.Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.Paychex doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Paychex, Inc. (PAYX): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Analysts Estimate McCormick (MKC) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

McCormick (MKC) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations. McCormick (MKC) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended August 2021. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on September 30, 2021, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.Zacks Consensus EstimateThis spices and seasonings company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.73 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -5.2%.Revenues are expected to be $1.56 billion, up 8.8% from the year-ago quarter.Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.56% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.Price, Consensus and EPS SurpriseEarnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for McCormick?For McCormick, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -2.06%.On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that McCormick will beat the consensus EPS estimate.Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.For the last reported quarter, it was expected that McCormick would post earnings of $0.64 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.69, delivering a surprise of +7.81%.Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times.Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.McCormick doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Darden (DRI) Stock Up on Q1 Earnings Beat & Upbeat View

Darden's (DRI) first-quarter fiscal 2022 results benefit from solid blended same-restaurant sales and new store openings. Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI reported impressive first-quarter fiscal 2022 results, with earnings and revenues surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The bottom line beat the consensus mark for the 11th straight quarter and the top line outpaced the same for the third consecutive quarter. Moreover, the metrics increased on a year-over-year basis. The company also raised its 2022 outlook. Following the robust results and an upbeat view, the company’s shares moved up 3.8% in pre-market trading session.Earnings & RevenuesDuring the fiscal first quarter, the company reported adjusted earnings of $1.76 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings of $1.63 by 8%. In the prior-year quarter, the company had reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 56 cents.Total sales during the quarter came in at $ 2,306 million, beating the consensus mark of $2,238 million by 3%. Moreover, sales increased 51% from the prior-year quarter’s level on solid blended same-restaurant sales of 47.5%. This along with the opening of 34 net new restaurants added to the positives.Darden Restaurants, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise  Darden Restaurants, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Darden Restaurants, Inc. Quote Sales by SegmentsDarden reports business under four segments — Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Fine Dining that includes The Capital Grille and Eddie V's as well as Other Business.During the fiscal first quarter, sales at Olive Garden increased 38.3% year over year to $1,090.4 million. Comps in the segment rose 37.1% year over year compared with 61.9% growth reported in the previous quarter.Sales at Fine Dining increased 104.4% year over year to $168.8 million. Comps in the segment increased 84.6% year over year compared with 143.6% growth reported in the previous quarter.Sales at Other Business increased 71.4% year over year to $479.7 million. Moreover, comps in the Other Business increased 65.8% year over year compared with 160.7% growth reported in the previous quarter.At LongHorn Steakhouse, sales were up 50.5% year over year to $567.1 million. Comps in the segment surged 47% year over year compared with 107.5% growth reported in the previous quarter.Operating Highlights & Net IncomeIn the fiscal first quarter, total operating costs and expenses increased 37.7% year over year to $2,025.2 million. The upside was primarily driven by a rise in food and beverage costs, restaurant expenses and labor costs.Balance SheetAs of Aug 29, 2021, cash and cash equivalents came in at $947.8 million compared with $1,214.7 million as of May 30, 2021.Inventories during the fiscal first quarter came in at $210.9 million compared with $190.8 in the previous quarter. Long-term debt as of Aug 29, 2021, was $936.7 million compared with $929.8 million as of May 30, 2021.During the fiscal first quarter, Darden’s board of director repurchased approximately 1.3 million shares of its common stock worth approximately $186 million. At the end of first-quarter fiscal 2021, the company had approximately $277 million remaining under the $500-million repurchase authorization. Management sanctioned to repurchase an additional $750 million of its outstanding common stock, thereby bringing the total remaining repurchase authorization to approximately $1 billion.Meanwhile, the company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.10 per share. The dividend will be payable on Nov 1, 2021, to shareholders of record as of Oct 8, 2021.Updated Fiscal 2022 OutlookFor fiscal 2022, the company raised its sales expectations to approximately $9.4-$9.6 billion versus the previous forecast of approximately $9.2-$9.5 billion. The company expects total sales growth in the range of 7-9% from pre-COVID levels. Further, same-restaurant sales are expected to increase in the range of 27-30% on a year-over-year basis.EBITDA for fiscal 2022 is anticipated in the range of $1.54-$1.60 billion compared with the previous projection of $1.50-$1.59 billion. EPS from continuing operations are anticipated in the band of $7.25-$7.60 compared with the previous guidance of $7.00-$7.50. Meanwhile, effective tax rate for fiscal 2022 is anticipated in the range of 13-14%.The company expects to open 35-40 net new restaurants and projects total capital spending of $375-$425 million in fiscal 2022.Zacks Rank & Key PicksDarden currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Some better-ranked stocks in the same space include Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG, Jack In The Box Inc. JACK and The Wendys Company WEN, each currently carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).Chipotle’s 2021 earnings are expected to surge 137.5%.Jack in the Box has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 26.4%, on average.Wendys has a three-five-year EPS growth rate of 14%. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Jack In The Box Inc. (JACK): Free Stock Analysis Report Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG): Free Stock Analysis Report Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI): Free Stock Analysis Report The Wendys Company (WEN): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Futures Rise On Taper, Evergrande Optimism

Futures Rise On Taper, Evergrande Optimism US index futures jumped overnight even as the Fed confirmed that a November tapering was now guaranteed and would be completed by mid-2022 with one rate hike now on deck, while maintaining the possibility to extend stimulus if necessitated by the economy. Sentiment got an additional boost from a strong showing of Evergrande stock - which closed up 17% - during the Chinese session, which peaked just after Bloomberg reported that China told Evergrande to avoid a near-term dollar bond default and which suggested that the "government wants to avoid an imminent collapse of the developer" however that quickly reversed when the WSJ reported, just one hour later, that China was making preparations for Evergrande's demise, and although that hammered stocks, the report explicitly noted that a worst-case scenario for Evergrande would mean a partial or full nationalization as "local-level government agencies and state-owned enterprises have been instructed to step in only at the last minute should Evergrande fail to manage its affairs in an orderly fashion." In other words, both reports are bullish: either foreign creditors are made whole (no default) as per BBG or the situation deteriorates and Evergrande is nationalized ("SOEs step in") as per WSJ. According to Bloomberg, confidence is building that markets can ride out a pullback in Fed stimulus, unlike 2013 when the taper tantrum triggered large losses in bonds and equities. "Investors are betting that the economic and profit recovery will be strong enough to outweigh a reduction in asset purchases, while ultra-low rates will continue to support riskier assets even as concerns linger about contagion from China’s real-estate woes." That's one view: the other is that the Fed has so broken the market's discounting ability we won't know just how bad tapering will get until it actually begins. “The Fed has got to be pleased that their communication on the longer way to tapering has avoided the dreaded fear of the tantrum,” Jeffrey Rosenberg, senior portfolio manager for systematic fixed income at BlackRock Inc., said on Bloomberg Television. “This is a very good outcome for the Fed in terms of signaling their intent to give the market information well ahead of the tapering decision.” Then there is the question of Evergrande: “With regards to Evergrande, all those people who are waiting for a Lehman moment in China will probably have to wait another turn,” said Ken Peng, an investment strategist at Citi Private Bank Asia Pacific. “So I wouldn’t treat this as completely bad, but there are definitely a lot of risks on the horizon.” In any case, today's action is a continuation of the best day in two months for both the Dow and the S&P which staged a strong recovery from two-month lows hit earlier in the week, and as of 745am ET, S&P 500 E-minis were up 25.25 points, or 0.6%, Dow E-minis were up 202 points, or 0.59%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 92.0 points, or 0.60%. In the premarket, electric vehicle startup Lucid Group rose 3.1% in U.S. premarket trading. PAVmed (PVM US) jumps 11% after its Lucid Diagnostics unit announced plans to list on the Global Market of the Nasdaq Stock Market.  Here are some of the biggest movers today: U.S.-listed Chinese stocks rise in premarket trading as fears of contagion from China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis ease. Blackberry (BB US) shares rise 8.7% in premarket after co.’s 2Q adjusted revenue beat the average of analysts’ estimates Eargo (EAR US) falls 57% in Thursday premarket after the hearing aid company revealed it was the target of a Justice Department criminal probe and withdrew its forecasts for the year Amplitude Healthcare Acquisition (AMHC US) doubled in U.S. premarket trading after the SPAC’s shareholders approved the previously announced business combination with Jasper Therapeutics Steelcase (SCS US) fell 4.8% Wednesday postmarket after the office products company reported revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate Vertex Energy Inc. (VTNR US) gained 2.1% premarket after saying the planned acquisition of a refinery in Mobile, Alabama from Royal DutVTNR US Equitych Shell Plc is on schedule Synlogic (SYBX US) shares declined 9.7% premarket after it launched a stock offering launched without disclosing a size HB Fuller (FUL US) climbed 2.7% in postmarket trading after third quarter sales beat even the highest analyst estimate Europe's Stoxx 600 index rose 0.9%, lifted by carmakers, tech stocks and utilities, which helped it recover losses sparked earlier in the week by concerns about Evergrande and China’s crackdown on its property sector. The gauge held its gain after surveys of purchasing managers showed business activity in the euro area lost momentum and slowed broadly in September after demand peaked over the summer and supply-chain bottlenecks hurt services and manufacturers. Euro Area Composite PMI (September, Flash): 56.1, consensus 58.5, last 59.0. Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (September, Flash): 58.7, consensus 60.3, last 61.4. Euro Area Services PMI (September, Flash): 56.3, consensus 58.5, last 59.0. Germany Composite PMI (September, Flash): 55.3, consensus 59.2, last 60.0. France Composite PMI (September, Flash): 55.1, consensus 55.7, last 55.9. UK Composite PMI (September, Flash): 54.1, consensus 54.6, last 54.8. Commenting on Europe's PMIs, Goldman said that the Euro area composite PMI declined by 2.9pt to 56.1 in September, well below consensus expectations. The softening was broad-based across countries but primarily led by Germany. The peripheral composite flash PMI also weakened significantly in September but remain very high by historical standards (-2.4pt to 57.5). Across sectors, the September composite decline was also broad-based, with manufacturing output softening (-3.3pt to 55.6) to a similar extent as services (-2.7pt to 56.3). Supply-side issues and upward cost and price pressures continued to be widely reported. Expectations of future output growth declined by less than spot output on the back of delta variant worries and supply issues, remaining far above historically average levels. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for the first time in four sessions, as Hong Kong helped lead a rally on hopes that troubled property firm China Evergrande Group will make progress on debt repayment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.5%, with Tencent and Meituan providing the biggest boosts. The Hang Seng jumped as much as 2.5%, led by real estate stocks as Evergrande surged more than 30%. Hong Kong shares later pared their gains. Asian markets were also cheered by gains in U.S. stocks overnight even as the Federal Reserve said it may begin scaling back stimulus this year. A $17 billion net liquidity injection from the People’s Bank of China also provided a lift, while the Fed and Bank of Japan downplayed Evergrande risks in comments accompanying policy decisions Wednesday. Evergrande’s stock closed 18% higher in Hong Kong, in a delayed reaction to news a unit of the developer had negotiated interest payments on yuan notes. A coupon payment on its 2022 dollar bond is due on Thursday “Investors are perhaps reassessing the tail risk of a disorderly fallout from Evergrande’s credit issues,” said Chetan Seth, a strategist at Nomura. “However, I am not sure if the fundamental issue around its sustainable deleveraging has been addressed. I suspect markets will likely remain quite volatile until we have some definite direction from authorities on the eventual resolution of Evergrande’s debt problems.” Stocks rose in most markets, with Australia, Taiwan, Singapore and India also among the day’s big winners. South Korea’s benchmark was the lone decliner, while Japan was closed for a holiday In rates, Treasuries were off session lows, with the 10Y trading a 1.34%, but remained under pressure in early U.S. session led by intermediate sectors, where 5Y yield touched highest since July 2. Wednesday’s dramatic yield-curve flattening move unleashed by Fed communications continued, compressing 5s30s spread to 93.8bp, lowest since May 2020. UK 10-year yield climbed 3.4bp to session high 0.833% following BOE rate decision (7-2 vote to keep bond-buying target unchanged); bunds outperformed slightly. Peripheral spreads tighten with long-end Italy outperforming. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed an earlier gain and dropped 0.3% as the dollar weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen amid a more positive sentiment. CAD, NOK and SEK are the strongest performers in G-10, JPY the laggard.  The euro and the pound briefly pared gains after weaker-than-forecast German and British PMIs. The pound rebounded from an eight-month low amid a return of global risk appetite as investors assessed whether the Bank of England will follow the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone later Thursday. The yield differential between 10-year German and Italian debt narrowed to its tightest since April. Norway’s krone advanced after Norges Bank raised its policy rate in line with expectations and signaled a faster pace of tightening over the coming years. The franc whipsawed as the Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate and deposit rate at record lows, as expected, and reiterated its pledge to wage currency market interventions. The yen fell as a unit of China Evergrande said it had reached an agreement with bond holders over an interest payment, reducing demand for haven assets. Turkey’s lira slumped toa record low against the dollar after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates. In commodities, crude futures drifted lower after a rangebound Asia session. WTI was 0.25% lower, trading near $72; Brent dips into the red, so far holding above $76. Spot gold adds $3.5, gentle reversing Asia’s losses to trade near $1,771/oz. Base metals are well bid with LME aluminum leading gains. Bitcoin steadied just below $44,000. Looking at the day ahead, we get the weekly initial jobless claims, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for August, and the Kansas City fed’s manufacturing activity index for September. From central banks, there’ll be a monetary policy decision from the Bank of England, while the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin and the ECB’s Elderson will also speak. From emerging markets, there’ll also be monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Finally in Germany, there’s an election debate with the lead candidates from the Bundestag parties. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 4,413.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 468.32 MXAP up 0.5% to 200.57 MXAPJ up 0.9% to 645.76 Nikkei down 0.7% to 29,639.40 Topix down 1.0% to 2,043.55 Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 24,510.98 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,642.22 Sensex up 1.4% to 59,728.37 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.0% to 7,370.22 Kospi down 0.4% to 3,127.58 German 10Y yield fell 5.6 bps to -0.306% Euro up 0.4% to $1.1728 Brent Futures up 0.3% to $76.39/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,768.25 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.33% to 93.16 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Financial regulators in Beijing issued a broad set of instructions to China Evergrande Group, telling the embattled developer to focus on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors while avoiding a near-term default on dollar bonds China’s central bank net-injected the most short- term liquidity in eight months into the financial system, with markets roiled by concerns over China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis Europe’s worst energy crisis in decades could drag deep into the cold months as Russia is unlikely to boost shipments until at least November Business activity in the euro area “markedly” lost momentum in September after demand peaked over the summer and supply chain bottlenecks hurt both services and manufacturers. Surveys of purchasing managers by IHS Markit showed growth in both sectors slowing more than expected, bringing overall activity to a five-month low. Input costs, meanwhile, surged to the highest in 21 years, according to the report The U.K. private sector had its weakest month since the height of the winter lockdown and inflation pressures escalated in September, adding to evidence that the recovery is running into significant headwinds, IHS Markit said The U.K.’s record- breaking debut green bond sale has given debt chief Robert Stheeman conviction on the benefits of an environmental borrowing program. The 10 billion-pound ($13.7 billion) deal this week was the biggest-ever ethical bond sale and the country is already planning another offering next month A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquaw Asian equity markets traded mostly positive as the region took its cue from the gains in US with the improved global sentiment spurred by some easing of Evergrande concerns and with stocks also unfazed by the marginally more hawkish than anticipated FOMC announcement (detailed above). ASX 200 (+1.0%) was underpinned by outperformance in the commodity-related sectors and strength in defensives, which have more than atoned for the losses in tech and financials, as well as helped markets overlook the record daily COVID-19 infections in Victoria state. Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) were also positive after another respectable liquidity operation by the PBoC and with some relief in Evergrande shares which saw early gains of more than 30% after recent reports suggested a potential restructuring by China’s government and with the Co. Chairman noting that the top priority is to help wealth investors redeem their products, although the majority of the Evergrande gains were then pared and unit China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle fully retraced the initial double-digit advances. KOSPI (-0.5%) was the laggard as it played catch up to the recent losses on its first trading day of the week and amid concerns that COVID cases could surge following the holiday period, while Japanese markets were closed in observance of the Autumnal Equinox Day. China Pumps $17 Billion Into System Amid Evergrande Concerns China Stocks From Property to Tech Jump on Evergrande Respite Philippines Holds Key Rate to Spur Growth Amid Higher Prices Taiwan’s Trade Deal Application Sets Up Showdown With China Top Asian News European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.9%) trade on the front-foot and have extended gains since the cash open with the Stoxx 600 now higher on the week after Monday’s heavy losses. From a macro perspective, price action in Europe has been undeterred by a slowdown in Eurozone PMIs which saw the composite metric slip to 56.1 from 59.0 (exp. 58.5) with IHS Markit noting “an unwelcome combination of sharply slower economic growth and steeply rising prices.” Instead, stocks in the region have taken the cue from a firmer US and Asia-Pac handover with performance in Chinese markets aided by further liquidity injections by the PBoC. Some positivity has also been observed on the Evergrande front amid mounting expectations of a potential restructuring at the company. That said, at the time of writing, it remains unclear what the company’s intentions are for repaying its USD 83.5mln onshore coupon payment. Note, ING highlights that “missing that payment today would still leave a 30-day grace period before this is registered as a default”. The most recent reports via WSJ indicate that Chinese authorities are asking local governments to begin preparations for the potential downfall of Evergrande; however, the article highlights that this is a last resort and Beijing is reluctant to step in. Nonetheless, this article has taken the shine off the mornings risk appetite, though we do remain firmer on the session. Stateside, as the dust settles on yesterday’s FOMC announcement, futures are firmer with outperformance in the RTY (+0.8% vs. ES +0.7%). Sectors in Europe are higher across the board with outperformance in Tech and Autos with the latter aided by gains in Faurecia (+4.6%) who sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 after making an unsurprising cut to its guidance, which will at least provide some clarity on the Co.’s near-term future; in sympathy, Valeo (+6.6) is also a notable gainer in the region. To the downside, Entain (+2.6%) sit at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after recent strong gains with the latest newsflow surrounding the Co. noting that MGM Resorts is considering different methods to acquire control of the BetMGM online gambling business JV, following the DraftKings offer for Entain, according to sources. The agreement between Entain and MGM gives MGM the ability to block any deal with competing businesses; MGM officials believe this grants the leverage to take full control of BetMGM without spending much. Top European News BOE Confronts Rising Prices, Slower Growth: Decision Guide La Banque Postale Eyes Retail, Asset Management M&A in Europe Activist Bluebell Raises Pressure on Glaxo CEO Walmsley Norway Delivers Rate Lift-Off With Next Hike Set for December In FX, not much bang for the Buck even though the FOMC matched the most hawkish market expectations and Fed chair Powell arguably went further by concluding in the post-meeting press conference that substantial progress on the lagging labour front is all but done. Hence, assuming the economy remains on course, tapering could start as soon as November and be completed my the middle of 2022, though he continued to play down tightening prospects irrespective of the more hawkish trajectory implied by the latest SEP dot plots that are now skewed towards at least one hike next year and a cumulative seven over the forecast horizon. However, the Greenback only managed to grind out marginally higher highs overnight, with the index reaching 93.526 vs 93.517 at best yesterday before retreating quite sharply and quickly to 93.138 in advance of jobless claims and Markit’s flash PMIs. CAD/NZD/AUD - The Loonie is leading the comeback charge in major circles and only partially assisted by WTI keeping a firm bid mostly beyond Usd 72/brl, and Usd/Cad may remain contained within 1.2796-50 ahead of Canadian retail sales given decent option expiry interest nearby and protecting the downside (1 bn between 1.2650-65 and 2.7 bn from 1.2620-00). Meanwhile, the Kiwi has secured a firmer grip on the 0.7000 handle to test 0.7050 pre-NZ trade and the Aussie is looking much more comfortable beyond 0.7250 amidst signs of improvement in the flash PMIs, albeit with the services and composite headline indices still some way short of the 50.0 mark. NOK/GBP/EUR/CHF - All firmer, and the Norwegian Crown outperforming following confirmation of the start of rate normalisation by the Norges Bank that also underscored another 25 bp hike in December and further tightening via a loftier rate path. Eur/Nok encountered some support around 10.1000 for a while, but is now below, while the Pound has rebounded against the Dollar and Euro in the run up to the BoE at midday. Cable is back up around 1.3770 and Eur/Gbp circa 0.8580 as Eur/Usd hovers in the low 1.1700 area eyeing multiple and a couple of huge option expiries (at the 1.1700 strike in 4.1 bn, 1.1730 in 1 bn, 1.1745-55 totalling 2.7 bn and 1.8 bn from 1.1790-1.1800). Note, Eurozone and UK flash PMIs did not live up to their name, but hardly impacted. Elsewhere, the Franc is lagging either side of 0.9250 vs the Buck and 1.0835 against the Euro on the back of a dovish SNB Quarterly Review that retained a high Chf valuation and necessity to maintain NIRP, with only minor change in the ordering of the language surrounding intervention. JPY - The Yen is struggling to keep its head afloat of 110.00 vs the Greenback as Treasury yields rebound and risk sentiment remains bullish pre-Japanese CPI and in thinner trading conditions due to the Autumn Equinox holiday. In commodities, WTI and Brent have been choppy throughout the morning in-spite of the broadly constructive risk appetite. Benchmarks spent much of the morning in proximity to the unchanged mark but the most recent Evergrande developments, via WSJ, have dampened sentiment and sent WTI and Brent back into negative territory for the session and printing incremental fresh lows at the time of publication. Back to crude, newsflow has once again centred around energy ministry commentary with Iraq making clear that oil exports will continue to increase. Elsewhere, gas remains at the forefront of focus particularly in the UK/Europe but developments today have been somewhat incremental. On the subject, Citi writes that Asia and Europe Nat. Gas prices could reach USD 100/MMBtu of USD 580/BOE in the winter, under their tail-risk scenario. For metals, its very much a case of more of the same with base-metals supportive, albeit off-best given Evergrande, after a robust APAC session post-FOMC. Given the gas issues, desks highlight that some companies are being forced to suspend/reduce production of items such as steel in Asian/European markets, a narrative that could become pertinent for broader prices if the situation continues. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are both modestly firmer but remain well within the range of yesterday’s session and are yet to recovery from the pressure seen in wake of the FOMC. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 320,000, prior 332,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.6m, prior 2.67m 8:30am: Aug. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.50, prior 0.53 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Composite PMI, prior 55.4 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Services PMI, est. 54.9, prior 55.1 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 61.0, prior 61.1 11am: Sept. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 25, prior 29 12pm: 2Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior $5t DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap My wife was at a parents event at school last night so I had to read three lots of bedtime stories just as the Fed were announcing their policy decision. Peppa Pig, Biff and Kipper, and somebody called Wonder Kid were interspersed with Powell’s press conference live on my phone. It’s fair to say the kids weren’t that impressed by the dot plot and just wanted to join them up. The twins (just turned 4) got their first reading book homework this week and it was a bit sad that one of them was deemed ready to have one with words whereas the other one only pictures. The latter was very upset and cried that his brother had words and he didn’t. That should create even more competitive tension! Back to the dots and yesterday’s Fed meeting was on the hawkish side in terms of the dots and also in terms of Powell’s confidence that the taper could be complete by mid-2022. Powell said that the Fed could begin tapering bond purchases as soon as the November FOMC meeting, in line with our US economists’ forecasts. He left some room for uncertainty, saying they would taper only “If the economy continues to progress broadly in line with expectations, and also the overall situation is appropriate for this.” However he made clear that “the timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff.” The quarterly “dot plot” showed that the 18 FOMC officials were split on whether to start raising rates next year or not. In June, the median dot indicated no rate increases until 2023, but now 6 members see a 25bps raise next year and 3 members see two such hikes. Their inflation forecasts were also revised up and DB’s Matt Luzzetti writes in his FOMC review (link here) that “If inflation is at or below the Fed's current forecast next year of 2.3% core PCE, liftoff is likely to come in 2023, consistent with our view. However, if inflation proves to be higher with inflation expectations continuing to rise, the first rate increase could well migrate into 2022.” Markets took the overall meeting very much in its stride with the biggest impact probably being a yield curve flattening even if US 10yr Treasury yields traded in just over a 4bp range yesterday and finishing -2.2bps lower at 1.301%. The 5y30y curve flattened -6.7bps to 95.6bps, its flattest level since August 2020, while the 2y10y curve was -4.2bps flatter. So the market seems to believe the more hawkish the Fed gets the more likely they’ll control inflation and/or choke the recovery. The puzzle is that even if the dots are correct, real Fed funds should still be negative and very accommodative historically for all of the forecasting period. As such the market has a very dim view of the ability of the economy to withstand rate hikes or alternatively that the QE technicals are overpowering everything at the moment. In equities, the S&P 500 was up nearly +1.0% 15 minutes prior to the Fed, and then rallied a further 0.5% in the immediate aftermath before a late dip look it back to +0.95%. The late dip meant that the S&P still has not seen a 1% up day since July 23. The index’s rise was driven by cyclicals in particular with energy (+3.17%), semiconductors (-2.20%), and banks (+2.13%) leading the way. Asian markets are mostly trading higher this morning with the Hang Seng (+0.69%), Shanghai Comp (+0.58%), ASX (+1.03%) and India’s Nifty (+0.81%) all up. The Kospi (-0.36%) is trading lower though and is still catching up from the early week holidays. Japan’s markets are closed for a holiday today. Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.25% while those on the Stoxx 50 are up +0.49%. There is no new news on the Evergrande debt crisis however markets participants are likely to pay attention to whether the group is able to make interest rate payment on its 5 year dollar note today after the group had said yesterday that it resolved a domestic bond coupon by negotiations which was also due today. As we highlighted in our CoTD flash poll conducted earlier this week, market participants are not too worried about a wider fallout from the Evergrande crisis and even the Hang Seng Properties index is up +3.93% this morning and is largely back at the levels before the big Monday sell-off of -6.69%. Overnight we have received flash PMIs for Australia which improved as parts of the country have eased the coronavirus restrictions. The services reading came in at 44.9 (vs. 42.9 last month) and the manufacturing print was even stronger at 57.3 (vs. 52.0 last month). Japan’s flash PMIs will be out tomorrow due to today’s holiday. Ahead of the Fed, markets had continued to rebound from their declines earlier in the week, with Europe’s STOXX 600 gaining +0.99% to narrowly put the index in positive territory for the week. This continues the theme of a relative outperformance among European equities compared to the US, with the STOXX 600 having outpaced the S&P 500 for 5 consecutive sessions now, though obviously by a slim margin yesterday. Sovereign bonds in Europe also posted gains, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.7bps), OATs (-1.0bps) and BTPs (-3.2bps) all moving lower. Furthermore, there was another tightening in peripheral spreads, with the gap in Italian 10yr yields over bunds falling to 98.8bps yesterday, less than half a basis point away from its tightest level since early April. Moving to fiscal and with Democrats seemingly unable to pass the $3.5 trillion Biden budget plan by Monday, when the House is set to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, Republican leadership is calling on their members to vote against the bipartisan bill in hopes of delaying the process further. While the there is still a high likelihood the measure will eventually get passed, time is becoming a factor. Congress now has just over a week to get a government funding bill through both chambers of congress as well as raise the debt ceiling by next month. Republicans have told Democrats to do the latter in a partisan manner and include it in the reconciliation process which could mean that a significant portion of the Biden economic agenda – mostly encapsulated in the $3.5 trillion over 10 year budget – may have to be cut down to get the entire Democratic caucus on board. Looking ahead, an event to watch out for today will be the Bank of England’s policy decision at 12:00 London time, where our economists write (link here) that they expect no change in the policy settings. However, they do expect a reaffirmation of the BoE’s updated forward guidance that some tightening will be needed over the next few years to keep inflation in check, even if it’s too early to expect a further hawkish pivot at this stage. Staying on the UK, two further energy suppliers (Avro Energy and Green Supplier) ceased trading yesterday amidst the surge in gas prices, with the two supplying 2.9% of domestic customers between them. We have actually seen a modest fall in European natural gas prices over the last couple of days, with the benchmark future down -4.81% since its close on Monday, although it’s worth noting that still leaves them up +75.90% since the start of August alone. There wasn’t much data to speak of yesterday, though US existing home sales fell to an annualised rate of 5.88 in August (vs. 5.89m expected). Separately, the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area unexpectedly rose to -4.0 in September (vs. -5.9 expected). To the day ahead now, the data highlights include the September flash PMIs from around the world, while in the US there’s the weekly initial jobless claims, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for August, and the Kansas City fed’s manufacturing activity index for September. From central banks, there’ll be a monetary policy decision from the Bank of England, while the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin and the ECB’s Elderson will also speak. From emerging markets, there’ll also be monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Finally in Germany, there’s an election debate with the lead candidates from the Bundestag parties. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 08:13.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 23rd, 2021

Rite Aid reports narrower-than-expected loss, but revenue misses and full-year loss outlook widens

Shares of Rite Aid Corp. edged up 0.7% in premarket trading Thursday, after the drugstore chain reported a narrower-than-expected fiscal second-quarter loss, citing "strong execution" of COVID-19 vaccine administration, even as revenue came up short and the full-year loss outlook was widened. The net loss for the quarter to Aug. 28 widened to $100.3 million, or $1.86 a share, from $13.2 million, or 25 cents a share, in the year-ago period, citing higher litigation settlements, higher loss on sale of assets and a loss on debt modifications. Excluding nonrecurring items, the adjusted per-share loss was 41 cents, compared with the FactSet loss consensus of 48 cents. Revenue rose 2.2% to $6.11 billion, below the FactSet consensus of $6.21 billion, as retail pharmacy revenue grew 6.5% to $4.28 billion while pharmacy services revenue fell 6.9% to $1.90 billion. For fiscal 2022, the company affirmed its revenue guidance range of $25.1 billion to $25.5 billion but widened the adjusted per-share loss guidance to 90 cents to 53 cents from 79 cents to 24 cents. The stock has tumbled 25.4% over the past three months through Wednesday, while the S&P 500 has gained 3.6%.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatchSep 23rd, 2021

Jabil (JBL) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week"s Release

Jabil (JBL) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations. Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Jabil (JBL) reports results for the quarter ended August 2021. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on September 29, 2021, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.Zacks Consensus EstimateThis electronics manufacturer is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.36 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +38.8%.Revenues are expected to be $7.64 billion, up 4.6% from the year-ago quarter.Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.Price, Consensus and EPS SurpriseEarnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Jabil?For Jabil, the Most Accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no recent analyst views which differ from what have been considered to derive the consensus estimate. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0%.On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Jabil will beat the consensus EPS estimate.Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Jabil would post earnings of $1.03 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.30, delivering a surprise of +26.21%.Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.Jabil doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release. Infrastructure Stock Boom to Sweep America A massive push to rebuild the crumbling U.S. infrastructure will soon be underway. It’s bipartisan, urgent, and inevitable. Trillions will be spent. Fortunes will be made. The only question is “Will you get into the right stocks early when their growth potential is greatest?” Zacks has released a Special Report to help you do just that, and today it’s free. Discover 7 special companies that look to gain the most from construction and repair to roads, bridges, and buildings, plus cargo hauling and energy transformation on an almost unimaginable scale.Download FREE: How to Profit from Trillions on Spending for Infrastructure >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Jabil, Inc. (JBL): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 22nd, 2021

Will Landec (LNDC) Report Negative Earnings Next Week? What You Should Know

Landec (LNDC) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations. The market expects Landec (LNDC) to deliver flat earnings compared to the year-ago quarter on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended August 2021. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on September 29. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.Zacks Consensus EstimateThis agricultural and food packaging products company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.11 per share in its upcoming report, which represents no change from the year-ago quarter.Revenues are expected to be $128.25 million, down 5.5% from the year-ago quarter.Estimate Revisions TrendThe consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.Price, Consensus and EPS SurpriseEarnings WhisperEstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Landec?For Landec, the Most Accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no recent analyst views which differ from what have been considered to derive the consensus estimate. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0%.On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Landec will beat the consensus EPS estimate.Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Landec would post a loss of $0.03 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.07, delivering a surprise of +333.33%.Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates just once.Bottom LineAn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.Landec doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release. Infrastructure Stock Boom to Sweep America A massive push to rebuild the crumbling U.S. infrastructure will soon be underway. It’s bipartisan, urgent, and inevitable. Trillions will be spent. Fortunes will be made. The only question is “Will you get into the right stocks early when their growth potential is greatest?” Zacks has released a Special Report to help you do just that, and today it’s free. Discover 7 special companies that look to gain the most from construction and repair to roads, bridges, and buildings, plus cargo hauling and energy transformation on an almost unimaginable scale.Download FREE: How to Profit from Trillions on Spending for Infrastructure >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Landec Corporation (LNDC): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 22nd, 2021