Dallas" annual PGA event, the AT&T Byron Nelson, continues in McKinney

In 2020, the tournament announced it was moving from Dallas to McKinney. Starting in 2021, the five-year agreement with course operator ClubCorp kicked off with the tournament in May......»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsMay 13th, 2022

Russian oligarchs and companies aren"t invited to Davos for the 2022 World Economic Forum annual meeting, marking their first absence since the fall of the USSR

Oligarch Oleg Deripaska is known for his lavish parties at Davos, where models dressed as flight attendants reportedly spoon-fed caviar to guests. Davos ski resort at sunrise ahead of the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in January 2020, the last time the conference was held in-person.FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images Russian oligarchs are known for throwing lavish parties at the World Economic Forum in Davos. But this year, zero Russian businessmen or companies received the invite, according to multiple reports.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will deliver a virtual keynote address on Monday.  Russian oligarchs — and their lavish parties — will be noticeably absent this year from the World Economic Forum's (WEF) annual meeting in Davos as Putin's war on Ukraine nears its fourth month.Not one Russian official, executive, or company received an invite to the exclusive conference, which kicks off on  Monday. Meanwhile, a philanthropic group has turned the site's "Russia House" into an exhibition called the "Russia War Crimes House," Reuters reports. It's the first time the conference will exclude Russians among its elite attendees since the collapse of the Soviet Union, as Bloomberg first reported. In 2020, Russians were the third most-represented billionaires in attendance, per the outlet. "We are not engaging with any sanctioned individual and have frozen all relations with Russian entities," Amanda Russo, a WEF spokesperson, told Politico back in March. WEF did not immediately respond to Insider's request for further comment.After two years of virtual-only events, the grand meeting of the world's political and economic elite is attempting to reclaim its place in a post-pandemic, war-torn world. The boycott is a far cry from WEF's response to Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2015, after which they invited President Vladimir Putin to speak at the event. Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, who is currently sanctioned by the US, EU, and UK, is known for throwing opulent after-parties at the conference. In 2018, the billionaire aluminum magnate hosted a bash featuring a performance by Spanish pop artist Enrique Iglesias. Two years prior, models dressed as flight attendants reportedly spoon-fed guests caviar and vodka shots, according to the Politico report. Ukrainian officials have quickly filled Russia's spots at Davos, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy scheduled to deliver a virtual keynote address on Monday. The World Economic Forum condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, adding that it "will do whatever is possible to help and actively support humanitarian and diplomatic efforts.""We only hope that — in the longer-term — reason will prevail and that the space for bridge-building and reconciliation once more emerges," the statement continues. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderMay 21st, 2022

Bear of the Day: Coinbase Global (COIN)

Before Bitcoin plummeted to $25,000 COIN was building a big quarterly loss on lower trading, higher costs Coinbase Global COIN, the $15 billion cryptocurrency exchange that lost over two-thirds of its value in the last month, delivered a crushing reversal of fortunes last week in its Q1 report on Tuesday evening May 10.Lower crypto prices and volatility in the quarter that ended in March, led to lower trading volumes and resulted in a drop in net revenue of 27% year-over-year to $1.2 billion.Meanwhile, net income plummeted from $771 million to a loss of $430 million. Primarily, a doubling of operating expenses during the quarter created the whopping loss.But the stock drop of over 40% in the two days following that report was also fueled by speculation about the company warning that "in the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings, and such customers could be treated as our general unsecured creditors."This sent further panic through a crypto market already reeling with the crash of Bitcoin to $30,000 -- and subsequently to $25,000 -- and the concurrent collapse of a "stablecoin" called Luna.Quarter DetailsCoinbase Global reported a Q1 loss of $1.98 per share in contrast to the year-ago earnings of $3.05 per share.In the quarter, Coinbase witnessed lower trading volumes in both retail and institutional as the trend of both lower crypto asset prices and volatility that began in late 2021 continued into the first quarter of 2022. Active monthly users declined 19% from the fourth quarter.In the days since the company report, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate for this year has been slashed from a profit of 51-cents to a loss of $7.47, representing an annual decline of over 150%. A few weeks ago, the full-year projection had been for a profit of $3.07.And next year's profit consensus has also been shredded from $5.70 to a loss of 93-cents in the last few weeks.Total Q1 revenues came in at $1.2 billion, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.4 billion. The top line drop reflected decreases in transaction revenues, subscription and services revenues as well as other revenues.Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) grew to 9.2 million, up 50.8% year over year, driven by higher retail and institutional volume.The trading volume of $309 billion declined 7.8% year over year, attributable to lower trading volume in both Retail and Institutional. Total trading volume continued to diversify beyond Bitcoin into Ethereum and other crypto assets.Total operating expenses more than doubled year over year to $1.7 billion, attributable to an increase in transaction expense, technology and development, sales and marketing and general and administrative and other operating expense.Adjusted EBITDA was $20 million in the reported quarter, a drop from $1.2 billion reported in the year-ago quarter.Financial UpdateAs of Mar 31, 2022, cash and cash equivalents were $6.1 billion, down 14.4% from the figure at 2021 end. Total assets were $20.9 billion, down 1.8% from the level at 2021 end.At the end of the first quarter of 2022, the long-term debt of the company was $3.4 billion, up 0.1% from 2021 end.Total shareholders’ equity was $6.5 billion at the end of the reported quarter, up 1.8% from the value on Dec 31, 2020.Cash used in operations was $830.1 million versus cash from operations of $3.4 million in the year-ago quarter.Q2 GuidanceCoinbase estimates retail MTU and total Trading volume to be lower in second-quarter 2022 compared with first-quarter 2022.Transaction expenses are expected to be in the lower twenties as a percent of net revenues.Operating expenses will be between $1.1 and $1.3 billion. Sales and marketing expenses are expected to be in the mid-to-high teens of as a percentage of net revenues.2022 GuidanceThe annual average retail MTU is expected to be between 5 and 15 million.While subscription and services revenues are expected to strongly grow over 2021, transaction expenses, as a percentage of revenues, are expected to be in the low 20%. Sales and marketing expenses, as a percentage of revenues, are expected to be about 12-15%. Technology & development and general & administrative expenses are projected to be between $4.25 and $5.25 billion.Adjusted EBITDA losses are expected to be about $500 million.Bottom line on COIN: While Cathie Wood's ARK Invest Innovation ETF ARKK continues to back COIN and bought 860,000 more shares last week, other interested investors may benefit and keep their risk low by letting the dust settle here as the shares should see continued volatility. Best to wait until the earnings outlook stabilizes and stops heading down. The Zacks Rank will let you know. Investor Alert: Legal Marijuana Looking for big gains? Now is the time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $13.5 billion in 2021 to an expected $70.6 billion by 2028. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could kick start an even greater bonanza for investors. Zacks Investment Research has recently closed pot stocks that have shot up as high as +147.0%. You’re invited to immediately check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN): Free Stock Analysis Report ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK): ETF Research Reports To read this article on click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksMay 16th, 2022

Dallas" annual PGA event, the AT&T Byron Nelson, continues in McKinney

In 2020, the tournament announced it was moving from Dallas to McKinney. Starting in 2021, the five-year agreement with course operator ClubCorp kicked off with the tournament in May......»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsMay 13th, 2022

Futures Dead Cat Bounced As BTFDers Emerge On Turnaround Tuesday

Futures Dead Cat Bounced As BTFDers Emerge On Turnaround Tuesday The relentless rout that erased $3.4 trillion from the Nasdaq 100 in the past month paused on Turnaround Tuesday as battered tech valuations attracted scattered dip buyers, but nothing like the full-throttled BTFD buying parade observed in months gone by. Futures on the tech-heavy gauge advanced as much 1.4% as bargain hunters returned after the Nasdaq 100 slumped to the lowest since November 2020 on Monday, capping three days of major losses. S&P 500 futures were 0.7% higher to 4,016 after rising as much as 1.2% earlier but also after plunging to as low as 3,961. After rising as high as 3.20% on Monday, 10-year Treasury yields dropped for a second day, sliding below 3.0% and providing further relief to technology shares. The dollar erased a loss and Treasuries edged higher, signaling the return of some haven demand amid nervousness over the path of Federal Reserve policy. European bonds rallied. The Nasdaq’s 14-day relative-strength index (RSI) closed at 33 on Monday, getting closer to the level of 30, which to some analysts indicates a security is oversold and is poised to rise. Another sharp selloff “seems unlikely without an external trigger,” said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg. “Nevertheless, as long as the problems persist, we do not expect a big recovery and have used the relief rally to move our equity exposure to neutral.” Indeed, traders have been caught between stubbornly high inflation that erodes asset values and central-bank tightening that threatens to slow economic growth, or even push some nations into recession. Recent U.S. data suggesting the Federal Reserve will stay on an aggressive rate-hike path have sparked the latest bout of risk-off trades. Fresh outbreaks of Covid in China, and the nation’s stringent measures to control them, have worsened sentiment. “For now, investors need to be prepared for continued volatility,” Solita Marcelli, Americas chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note. She added “sentiment is bearish” but not capitulating. In premarket trading, electric vehicle makers are up, with Tesla, Rivian and Lucid set to rebound after losing $188 billion in three days. AMC Entertainment is 6.4% higher after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results as hits like “Spider-Man: No Way Home” lured people back to movie theaters. Bank stocks edge higher in premarket trading amid a broader rebound for equity markets after Monday’s rout. S&P 500 futures are up about 0.8% this morning, while the U.S. 10-year yield retreats for a second day to sit at roughly 3%. In corporate news, BlackRock said it won’t support efforts by shareholders who try to micromanage companies on climate change. Meanwhile, Bitcoin rebounded back above $30,000 after briefly sinking below the closely watched level. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Most large cap U.S. technology and internet stocks rose in premarket trading, on course to recoup some of the heavy losses they suffered in a steep selloff over the last three sessions. Apple (AAPL US) is up 1.2%, Microsoft (MSFT US) +1.2% and Meta (FB US) +2.8%. AMC Entertainment (AMC US) is up 3.8% in premarket trading after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results as hits like “Spider-Man: No Way Home” lured people back to movie theaters. Electric vehicle makers Tesla (TSLA US), Rivian (RIVN US) and Lucid (LCID US) are rebounding after losing $188 billion in three days of heavy selling in technology and growth stocks. Shockwave Medical (SWAV US) may move after it raised its revenue guidance for the full year, with analysts saying that the company’s performance was boosted by its coronary business. Shares rose 11% in extended trading on Monday. Upstart Holdings (UPST US) shares plunge 48% in premarket trading after the cloud-based artificial intelligence lending platform cut full- year revenue guidance on macro uncertainties. Piper Sandler cut the stock to neutral. Novavax (NVAX US) is down 21% premarket, with analysts saying that the biotech firm’s revenue for the first quarter missed expectations. Plug Power (PLUG US) shares are 5.6% lower premarket after the fuel cell company reported net revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate, with KeyBanc noting pressure on margins and higher costs. Video game stocks may move after Sony’s earnings fell short of estimates amid supply constraints and component shortages. Watch shares in Activision Blizzard (ATVI US), Electronic Arts (EA US) and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO US). U.S. stocks and particularly the Nasdaq 100 have been crushed this year (amid a tireless tirade from JPM's Marko Kolanovic to buy each and every dip) as investors fret over recession risks from the Federal Reserve embarking on aggressive monetary tightening amid surging inflation. Higher interest rates mean a bigger discount for the present value of future profits, hurting growth and in particular tech stocks with the highest valuations.  European stocks trade well, with most cash indexes gaining over 1% to recover roughly half of Monday’s losses when the index slumped to its lowest level in two months. Euro Stoxx 50 rose as much as 1.75%, FTSE MIB outperforms slightly, FTSE 100 lags but still adds 1%. Construction, banks and autos lead broad-based Stoxx 600 sectoral gains. The Stoxx 600 energy sub-index edges lower, being one of the worst-performing sectors in a rising broader market for European stocks, as oil keeps falling. Shell declines as much as 1.5%, TotalEnergies SE -1.6%, Equinor -4.5%. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Luxury stocks such as Kering (+0.5%) and Watches of Switzerland (+4.2%) rebounded after the declines of the previous sessions, with investors hopeful that the Covid-19 situation in the key market of China may be slightly improving. Hermes rises as much as +1.6%, LVMH +2.4% Airbus gains as much as 3.7% in Paris trading after being raised to buy from hold at Societe Generale, with the broker highlighting the planned production ramp-up of the “highly profitable” A320 family. Swedish Match rises as much as 28% after Philip Morris International said it’s in talks to buy the company. While a deal would make strategic sense, a counter-bid can’t be ruled out, analysts said. Centrica climbs as much as 6.5%, the most since Feb. 25, after the company guided adjusted earnings per share to be at the top end of the consensus range. Euroapi soars as much as 9.5% after the Sanofi spinoff is initiated with a buy recommendation and EU20 price target at Deutsche Bank, which sees “good value” and an attractive business. E-commerce stocks rise in Europe, with many outperforming the benchmark Stoxx 600 Index, buoyed by dip buyers returning to growth and technology shares that have been battered this year. Zalando up as much as 4.9%, Home24 +12%, Moonpig +3.6% Earlier in the session, Asian stocks extended their decline to a seventh day as the specter of rapid credit tightening in the U.S. and protracted lockdowns in Chinese cities prompted some investors around the region to reduce holdings of riskier assets.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 2.1% to its lowest level since July 2020, weighed down tech shares after a three-day selloff in the Nasdaq 100. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index ended 1.8% lower as the market reopened after a holiday, though benchmarks in mainland China rebounded from early-trading lows on hopes for easier monetary conditions. MSCI Asia Pacific Index down 0.7% Japan’s Topix index down 0.9%; Nikkei 225 down 0.6% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down 1.8%; Hang Seng China Enterprises down 2.2%; Shanghai Composite up 1.1%; CSI 300 up 1.1% Taiwan’s Taiex index up 0.1% South Korea’s Kospi index down 0.5%; Kospi 200 down 0.5% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 down 1%; New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 down 1.3% India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index down 0.2%; NSE Nifty 50 down 0.4% “There’s nowhere to escape so it’s pretty tough,” said Yuya Fukue, a trader at Rheos Capital Works. “Economic data appears to be deteriorating of late, though that has seemed to have gone little noticed while the markets were so focused on the Fed’s policy. It feels as if the game is changing.” Among Chinese tech giants, Alibaba tumbled 4.8% in Hong Kong, while Tencent dropped 2.3%. Regional declines were broad, with investors dumping even this year’s star energy shares as oil prices eased.  Singapore’s Straits Times Index and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 both dropped about 1%. The Philippine benchmark ended 0.6% lower, recovering after skidding more than 3%, after Ferdinand Marcos Jr. won a landslide victory in the country’s presidential election. Mainland Chinese shares closed higher after the People’s Bank of China repeated a pledge to proactively address mounting economic pressure and highlighted a drop in deposit rates, which could spur banks to lower the cost of borrowing for the first time in months. “The market was a bit oversold. In addition, PBOC is also mentioning a drop in deposit rates, raising expectations of more room for banks to increase lending,” said Aw Hsi Lien, a strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research. India’s benchmark equity index slipped to a two-month low amid a weaker trend in Asia as surging oil prices and inflationary pressures weighed on investor sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.2% to 54,364.85 in Mumbai, after swinging between gains and losses several times during the session. The NSE Nifty 50 Index slipped 0.4% to 16,240.05. This is the third consecutive session of declines for the key indexes.  Sixteen of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. dropped, led by metal stocks. Reliance Industries Ltd. slipped 1.7% to a seven-week low and was the biggest drag on the Sensex, which saw 18 out of its 30 member-stocks trading lower.   In earnings, among the 27 Nifty 50 companies that have announced results so far, 10 have missed estimates while 17 either exceeded or met forecasts.  In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1% after climbing to a two-year high on Monday, and the greenback was steady or weaker against all of its Group-of-10 peers. The euro consolidated and the region’s yields fell as Italian bonds led an advance. The pound was steady against both the dollar and euro while gilts outperformed peers. Domestic focus is on the Queen’s speech laying out the government’s agenda for the next parliamentary session and Brexit risks after reports the U.K. is preparing to scrap parts of the Northern Ireland protocol. U.K. retail sales are falling on an annual basis for the first time since the start of last year as the cost of living crisis crushes consumer confidence and puts the brakes on spending. Scandinavian currencies led gains among G-10 pairs after both currencies fell to the weakest level in around two years versus the dollar on Monday. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also bounced off two-year lows as stock indexes trimmed an intraday decline. Aussie’s gains were tempered as iron ore fell for a third day to bring the three-day slide to about 15%. The yen edged lower as Treasury yields recovered from a sharp overnight drop. Bonds pared earlier gain after the 10-year debt sale. Bank of Japan Executive Director Shinichi Uchida says that widening the central bank’s yield target band would be equivalent to a rate hike and wouldn’t be favorable for Japan’s economy In rates, Treasuries rose in early U.S. trading with belly leading gains and the curve flattening modestly after Monday’s bull-steepening. Yields are richer by ~4bp across in belly of the curve, steepening 5s30s spread by ~3bp as long-end yields lag; 10-year trading just around 3%, richer by ~3bp on the day, trailing gilts by ~7bp in the sector. Core European rates outperform led by gilts while stocks and U.S. futures recover a portion of Monday’s steep losses. Bunds bull-flatten, while peripheral spreads tightened to Germany with short-dated BTPs outperforming. Treasury auction cycle begins with 3-year note sale, and several Fed speakers are slated. U.S. new-issue auction cycle consists of $45b 3-year note, followed by 10- and 30-year sales Wednesday and Thursday. WI 3-year yield ~2.800% is higher than auction stops since 2018 and ~6bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped through by 0.1bp. Three-month dollar Libor +0.13bp at 1.39986% In commodities, crude futures are choppy, WTI dips back into the red having stalled near $104. Spot gold rises ~$9 near $1,863/oz. Much of the base metals complex trades poorly. LME copper outperforms, holding in the green but off best levels after a test of $9,400/MT. Bitcoin reclaimed the $31K handle, but is yet to make a concerted move higher. Looking ahead, we get the April NFIB Small Business Optimism print (93.2, Exp. 92.9), Chinese M2, Speeches from Fed's Williams, Waller, Bostic, Barkin, Kashkari, Mester, ECB's de Guindos & BoE's Saunders, Supply from the US. Earnings from Norwegian Cruise Line & Warner Music. Biden speaks on soaring inflation at 11am EDT. Biden will also meet with Italian Prime Minister Draghi at the White House, and the UK state opening of Parliament is taking place, where the government outlines its legislative programme for the year ahead. Of course, the big event is tomorrow morning when the US CPI print comes. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.1% to 4,031.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 422.32 MXAP down 0.8% to 159.98 MXAPJ down 0.8% to 523.71 Nikkei down 0.6% to 26,167.10 Topix down 0.9% to 1,862.38 Hang Seng Index down 1.8% to 19,633.69 Shanghai Composite up 1.1% to 3,035.84 Sensex up 0.4% to 54,674.30 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.0% to 7,051.16 Kospi down 0.5% to 2,596.56 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.07% Euro little changed at $1.0564 Brent Futures up 0.8% to $106.83/bbl Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,862.69 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.65 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The EU is considering the issuance of joint debt to finance Ukraine’s long-term reconstruction, which may end up costing hundreds of billions of euros, according to an EU official familiar with the plan China’s provinces are set to sell a historic amount of new special bonds by the end of June as part of an infrastructure investment push intended to rescue an economy stymied by Covid outbreaks and lockdowns Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s talks with the head of the EU about proposed sanctions on Russian oil imports made progress, but failed to reach a breakthrough, according to both sides Investor confidence in Germany’s pandemic rebound improved, but remained deeply negative as the war in Ukraine darkens the outlook for Europe’s largest economy. The ZEW institute’s gauge of expectations rose to -34.3 in May from -41 the previous month, defying expectations for a third straight deterioration. An index of current conditions worsened Saudi Arabia’s oil minister warned that spare capacity is decreasing in all sectors of the energy market, as prices of products from crude to diesel and natural gas trade at or near multi-year highs in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mostly negative after the resumed sell-off on Wall St where the S&P 500 slipped beneath the 4,000 level for the first time since March 2021. ASX 200 briefly gave up the 7,000 status with notable underperformance in the energy and mining-related sectors. Nikkei 225 slumped from the open although moved off its lows as participants digested stronger than expected Household Spending data and after BoJ's Uchida dismissed the prospects of a tweak to the BoJ’s 50bps yield target band. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both initially joined in on the selling with heavy losses in the tech sector contributing to the underperformance in Hong Kong on return from the extended weekend, although the downside in the mainland was later reversed after the recent policy support efforts by China’s MIIT and CBIRC. Top Asian News China Tech Stocks Slide as Growth Woes, Global Rout Grip Traders Investor’s Guide to the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election ArcelorMittal Evaluating Bidding for ACC, Ambuja: ET Now Philippine Stocks Fall as Traders Weigh Marcos Win, Global Rout European equities feel some reprieve following the prior session’s selloff; Euro Stoxx 50 +1.2%. Relatively broad-based gains are seen across the majors with some mild underperformance in the FTSE 100. Sectors show some of the more defensive sectors at the bottom of the bunch – alongside energy – whilst Construction, Autos, Banks, and Industrial Goods reside as the current winners. US equity futures are firmer across the board, ES +1.0%, with the NQ narrowly outpacing peers after underperforming yesterday. Top European News Russian Gas Flows to Europe Remain Steady on Key Links Highest Inflation in Three Decades Boosts Czech Rate Hike Case BPER Banca Soars After Earnings Beat, With Fees as Highlight Russia’s Economy Facing Worst Contraction Since 1994 FX The Dollar retains a firm underlying bid ahead of another slew of Fed speakers; risk sentiment remains fluid and fragile. The Swiss Franc has hit a fresh 2022 peak vs the Greenback; USD/JPY is consolidating around 130.00. EUR/USD was unfazed by mixed German ZEW data but later lost ground under 1.0550. Cable rotates either side of 1.2350 awaiting Brexit/N. Ireland news, further political fallout and more comments from BoE hawk Saunders. Crude and commodity FX have gleaned a degree of traction from partial recoveries or stabilisation in underlying prices. CBRT and regulator have asked banks to undertake FX transactions with corporate clients between 10:00-16:00, when the market is liquid, via Reuters citing bankers. Fixed Income Core benchmarks bounce further after a brief breather early on, with little in way of fresh fundamentals behind the upside. Initial highs were faded pre-UK/German issuance; once this cleared, Bunds and Gilts lifted to 152.50+ and 119.00+ peaks. Stateside, USTs are bolstered but far from best, with the curve re-flattening into today's 3yr sale and yet more Fed speak. Commodities Crude futures have come under renewed pressure in recent trade after seeing some gains in the European morning.   The initial downside coincided with the mixed Germany ZEW reports alongside the downbeat commentary from Hungary regarding an imminent oil ban; albeit, benchmarks are off overnight USD 100.44/bbl and USD 103.19/bbl respective lows. Saudi Energy Minister says it is "mind-boggling" why focus is on high oil prices and not on gasoline, diesel or others. World needs to wake up to an existing reality that it is running out of energy capacity at all levels, via Reuters. UAE Energy Minister says oil prices could double or triple in "chaotic" market. US officials reportedly asked Brazil's Petrobras in March to boost output, but it the oil Co. said it could not, according to Reuters sources. China's Shenghong Petrochemical has started a trial operation at its (320k BPD) greenfield refining complex in east China, according to Reuters sources. Germany is said to be shifting away from plans for a strategic national coal reserve, according sources cited by Reuters. Spot gold holds onto mild gains as DXY pulled back from the fresh YTD highs set yesterday. LME futures post mild gains following yesterday’s downside with the market still looking somewhat fragile. DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap It's school photo day today. After discussing it with my kids last night I said to them that I'd dig out my old school photos so they could see me at school. Without hesitation and with a straight face Maisie said, "Are they in black and white Daddy?". I was half amused and half depressed. Markets are pretty black at the moment with little white on show. Actually the only bright colour is a sea of red. Indeed after a rocky few weeks in markets, there’s been a further rout over the last 24 hours as investor jitters about the global growth outlook have continued to escalate. There has been some respite in Asia but markets remain very shaky. There wasn’t really a single catalyst to yesterday’s steep declines, but ultimately there’s been a growing scepticism in markets as to whether the Fed and other central banks will actually be able to achieve a soft landing without a recession as they seek to bring down inflation. One interesting development though was that rates rallied as the equity slump intensified, rather than both selling off as has been the norm in recent weeks. Although the day lacked a single catalyst, the bond market moves seem to turn around the same time as Atlanta Fed President Bostic spoke. He picked up where Chair Powell left things after last week’s press conference. Bostic signaled that +50bp hikes were part of his core view, placing low odds on anything larger, stating +50bp hikes were “already a pretty aggressive move.” Like other Fed speakers, he signaled a desire to get policy to neutral and then assess. While he isn’t a voter this year, his voice does carry weight at the hawkish end of the committee so the price action likely reflected the market believing that a consensus continues to build for 50bps, and not 75bps, even among the hawks. Sovereign bonds were actually seeing a strong sell-off before his comments but rallied fairly fiercely from around the same time. 10yr Treasury yields hit an intraday high of 3.20% during the European morning (+7.5bps on the day) but ended up closing -9.3bps lower at 3.03%, showing that wide intraday ranges and volatility continue to grip the market. With the Fed continuing to put a perceived ceiling on the near-term pace of hikes, 2yr yields rallied -13.7bps on the day with the curve steepening another +5.3bps. The amount of Fed hikes priced in by the December meeting down by -15.5bps. As I type, 10yr US yields are fairly flat in Asia. The move echoed in Europe, where 10yr bunds rallied -3.5bps to 1.09%. The broader risk-off move meant that there was a further widening in spreads yesterday, with the gap between Italian 10yr BTPs over bunds widening by +4.9bps to 205bps, which is the widest they’ve been since May 2020. And that widening was seen on the credit side as well, where iTraxx Main moved above 100bps for the first time since April 2020 in trading, before falling back somewhat to settle at 98bps (+1.4bps). Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 fell by a sizeable -3.20% that takes the index to its lowest level in over a year. That comes on the backs of 5 consecutive weekly losses, which is already the longest run in over a decade, and given the performance yesterday it would take a strong comeback over the remaining four days this week to avoid that run extending to 6 weeks. See my Chart of the Day yesterday (link here) for more on how rare it has been to see an 11 year run without a 5 successive weekly decline. Energy was the worst performing US sector, falling an astonishing -8.30%, in its worst one-day performance since June 2020, after the fall in oil (more below). The sector is still by far the best performing S&P sector YTD, up +36.79%, with every other sector in the red. Despite the rate rally, it was a bad day for mega-cap and other growth tech stocks. Indeed, the NASDAQ fell a further -4.29% to its lowest level since November 2020, whilst the FANG+ index of 10 megacap tech stocks fell an even larger -5.48%. For reference, that now takes the FANG+ index’s decline since its all-time high in November to a massive -38.22%. Even a high quality component like Amazon is now down -35.75% since March 29th and is pretty much back to pre-covid levels. Over the other side of the pond, Europe saw some sizeable declines as well, with the STOXX 600 down -2.90% to leave the index not far away from its recent lows in early March. With the Fed set to continue their hiking cycle, just as the ECB are still pondering on when to even start hikes and China’s growth prospects are fading, the US dollar has continued to benefit. Yesterday, the Japanese Yen (+0.21% vs USD) was the top-performing G10 currency, in line with its traditional status as a safe haven, but Bitcoin continued to lose ground, falling to its lowest level since July last year, after falling to $31,562. It briefly fell below 30k this morning. It's been interesting that Bitcoin is not getting much mention with all the inflationary issues seen in recent months. It seems to be suffering from a higher dollar, higher real yields and a tech related sell-off. Markets continue to fall in Asia but US futures are up. Hang Seng (-3.06%) is the largest underperformer, but is paring its losses after falling more than -4% as the market returned after a holiday with the Chinese listed tech firms among the worst hit. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-0.93%) and Kospi (-0.95%) are down. Meanwhile, mainland Chinese stocks are trading in positive territory with the Shanghai Composite (+0.17%) and CSI (+0.15%) somewhat recovering from opening losses. Looking ahead, S&P 500 (+0.56%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.92%) and DAX (+0.25%) futures are moving higher. Early morning data showed that Japan’s household spending declined -2.3% y/y in March, its first drop in three months albeit the fall was less than -3.3% estimated by Bloomberg and followed +1.1% growth in February. Back to inflation and one potentially problematic indicator came from the New York Fed’s latest consumer survey, which found that median inflation expectations for 3 years ahead rose to +3.9%, which is the highest since December, and up from +3.5% back in January. It’s still not as high as the +4.2% readings back in September and October, but will obviously be unwelcome news to the Fed whose path to a soft landing is in part reliant on inflation expectations remaining well anchored around target. Turning to the situation in Ukraine, a key risk event yesterday had been Russia’s Victory Day parade, where it was speculated that President Putin would move towards a general mobilisation. However, in reality it finished with surprisingly little news, and whilst not showing a path towards de-escalation, didn’t move to escalate things further. Separately, it was reported by Bloomberg that the EU would soften its proposed sanctions package on Russian oil exports, with an article saying that they would drop the proposal to ban EU-owned vessels transporting Russian oil to third countries. The sanctions package has already come under criticism from some member states, and the article said that Hungary and Slovakia had been offered a longer time period lasting until end-2024 to comply with the proposals to ban Russian oil imports, with Hungary in particular saying more talks were needed to support oil-related sanctions. So with no further escalation and a softening in sanctions, oil prices fell back significantly amidst weak risk appetite more generally. Brent crude was down -5.74%, whilst WTI fell -6.09%, which follows 2 consecutive weekly gains for both. This morning oil prices are again lower with Brent and WTI futures -1.74% and -1.68% lower respectively. To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include the Fed’s Williams, Barkin, Waller, Kashkari and Mester, along with ECB Vice President de Guindos and Bundesbank President Nagel. Data releases include Italy’s industrial production for March and Germany’s ZEW survey for May. Finally on the political side, President Biden will meet with Italian Prime Minister Draghi at the White House, and the UK state opening of Parliament is taking place, where the government outlines its legislative programme for the year ahead. Tyler Durden Tue, 05/10/2022 - 07:57.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytMay 10th, 2022

Futures Slide Ahead Of Payrolls And Six Fed Speakers

Futures Slide Ahead Of Payrolls And Six Fed Speakers The market crash will continue until Biden's approval rating improves. US futures extended their slide on Friday, signaling continuation of a drop in tech stocks following the Nasdaq 100’s biggest selloff since September 2020, ahead of today's jobs report (which bulls pray comes in at around minus 1 million to put a premature end to Powell's market-crashing tightening) and ahead of no less than six Fed speakers, as investors grappled with fears of a stagflationary recession against tightening monetary policy. Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.9% lower and S&P 500 futures traded at session lows, down 0.7% as of 7:30 a.m. EDT as panicked traders sell first and don't even bother to ask questions. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to climb, trading at 3.1%, near the highest since November 2018. The dollar continued its relentless ascent, while cryptos continued to tumble. Perhaps even more concerning to traders than the jobs report is that six Fed speakers are lined up including Williams, Kashkari, Bostic, Bullard, Waller and Daly. Stocks plunged on Thursday, completely erasing their gains from the prior session amid a broad-based selloff in risk assets. The S&P 500 Index sank 3.6% on Thursday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index plunged 5.1%, its biggest decline since September 2020.  Still, some investors say that concerns may be overblown. “Looking back at just the past two days, it’s not really all that dramatic,” said Mattias Isakson, head of strategy and allocation at Swedbank, adding that indexes were roughly back to where they were compared to before the Fed press conference. “The overall market outlook hasn’t changed at all: interest rates and inflation worries will continue to create volatility in the short term,” Isakson said. On Friday, shares of US-listed Chinese firms extended losses in premarket trading amid growing concerns about the country’s economic growth prospects and continued weakness in tech shares. Peloton shares dropped premarket after the company was said to be considering selling a stake of around 20%. Meanwhile, DoorDash jumped after earnings and Tesla gained after planning to boost car production at its Shanghai plant. Here are some more details on the biggest premarket movers today: Tesla (TSLA US) shares gain as much as 1.1% in U.S. premarket trading, leaving them set to bounce back following Thursday’s losses, after the electric-vehicle maker was said to be making plans to boost car production at its Shanghai plant as soon as mid-May. Shares of U.S.-listed Chinese firms extend losses in premarket trading amid growing concerns about the country’s economic growth prospects and continued weakness in tech shares. Alibaba (BABA US) -1.9%, Baidu (BIDU US) -2.4%, (JD US) -2%. Peloton (PTON US) shares fall as much as 1.7% in U.S. premarket trading after the maker of indoor exercise bikes was said to be considering selling a stake of around 20% as part of a turnaround. Cloudflare (NET US) shares drop 9.3% in U.S. premarket despite a boosted full-year revenue guidance; analysts say the outlook implies a significant deceleration for lead metrics. At least 3 analysts cut their price targets on the stock. Digital Brands Group (DBGI US) shares decline 50% in U.S. premarket trading after pricing an offering of 37.4m shares at $0.25 apiece, representing a discount of ~50% to Thursday’s close. DoorDash (DASH US) shares jump as much as 6.9% in U.S. premarket trading, with analysts positive on the food-delivery firm’s first-quarter update given tough pandemic comparisons and a difficult macroeconomic environment, though some trimmed price targets amid higher investments. Block Inc. (SQ US) shares rise 7% after 1Q results, with analysts upbeat on demand for the company’s Square and Cash App payment services as the fintech company displays resilience amid a challenging market. Live Nation (LYV US) shares gained 4% in postmarket trading. Its leading indicators like ticket sales, show counts and committed sponsorships remain robust, according to Guggenheim analyst Curry Baker. Opendoor (OPEN US) jumps as much as 16% in U.S. premarket trading after the real estate platform provider forecast revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Zillow (ZG US) shares decline 6.7% in U.S. premarket trading after underwhelming guidance disappoints analysts, who believe that rising mortgage rates will cool the U.S. housing market. At least 3 analysts cut their price targets with one saying he doubts the real-estate technology firm’s ability to achieve its 2025 targets. According to BofA, the global market selloff has further to run, as every asset class saw outflows in the week prior to the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week, with real estate posting its biggest outflow on record - $2.2 billion - and investors piling into safe havens like Treasuries although one wouldn't know it judging by where yields are trading. “The Fed is attempting to land a B52 bomber on a piece of string and most risk markets still have their fingers in their ears and their hands over their eyes,” said James Athey, a London-based investment director at abrdn. “Hope is not a strategy.” The next key event for markets is Friday’s U.S. jobs report (full preview here), which will be closely watched for signs that rising wage costs are adding to the inflationary pressures rattling investors. Estimates by economists are looking for payrolls to expand by 380,000 in April, and the unemployment rate to fall to 3.5%, although whisper numbers are lower. A print higher than 500,000 in non-farm payrolls will provoke U.S. dollar buying as equities and bonds sell-off, while less than 300,000 should see the reverse, says Jeffrey Halley at OANDA. “A sharp divergence, up or down, from the median forecast, should produce a very binary outcome,” he says. “It’s that sort of market.” “Any upward pressure on the average hourly earnings could lead to another spike of U.S. yields and therefore add negative pressure on equities and especially tech stocks,” said Christophe Barraud, chief economist at Market Securities LLP in Paris. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index followed the Wall Street rout and was set for its worst weekly drop in two months, with consumer, retail and travel and leisure among the biggest decliners. FTSE MIB posts the smallest decline. Retailers, consumer products and media are the worst performing sectors. Traders will be watching job data, while Cigna, Dish, NRG Energy and Under Armour are among companies reporting earnings. Here are the biggest European movers today: Grifols rose as much as 9.3%, to the highest since November, after the Spanish maker of pharmaceutical products derived from blood plasma gave a business update that Citi said supports its buy rating on the stock. Leonardo rose as much as 4.4% after reporting earnings. Deutsche Bank said 1Q numbers were solid, while Intesa Sanpaolo said the company delivered “a sound start” to 2022. S4 Capital shares gained as much as 9.9% after the digital advertising agency released delayed FY results that showed limited audit adjustments. Revenue was ahead of analyst expectations. SKF shares advanced, breaking a seven-session declining streak, after Danske Bank upgraded the shares to buy, saying they “could generate good return in the coming 3-12 months.” Krones shares surged as much as 11%, the most since October 2019, after the machinery company reported 1Q Ebitda that beat estimate, with analysts noting scope for upgrades. Ambu shares dropped as much as 17% after the Danish health care equipment firm cut its outlook. Handelsbanken says the new guidance may lead to a 30% drop in FY Ebit estimates. Adidas shares fell more than 6% after the German sportswear maker cut its margin outlook for the year. Analysts noted the impact of lockdowns in China. Peer Puma also fell. IAG fell as much as 12%, the most intraday since November. The British Airways parent posted a 1Q operating loss that Citi analysts said was worse than consensus and their own expectations. JCDecaux shares slumped as much as 12% after its 2Q organic revenue growth target of more than 15% fell short of analyst expectations amid lockdowns in China. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were on track for five straight days of losses, as traders questioned whether the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike was enough to tackle inflation and Chinese leaders warned against doubting their Covid-Zero stance. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined by as much as 1.8%, poised for its longest losing streak since January and lowest closing level since July 2020. The broad-based selloff followed steep declines in U.S. shares overnight, with benchmarks in Australia, Taiwan and Vietnam each declining more than 1.7%. “Volatility comes from doubts whether the 50 basis-point hike can be enough to curb inflation,” said Lee Han-Young, chief fund manager at DS Asset Management, a Seoul-based hedge fund.  For market volatility to ease, CPI or other inflation-related data needs to peak or slow down, he said. “Before that, volatility seems inevitable.” Stock indexes in Hong Kong and mainland China were the worst performers in the region after the Politburo’s supreme Standing Committee reaffirmed its support for a lockdown-dependent approach on Thursday. Still, declines in Asia were less than the rout in U.S. shares, with generally smaller-sized market reactions to the Fed’s policy statement Wednesday. China’s economic slowdown and regulation of its tech industry are also playing on investors’ minds, with the Hang Seng Tech Index sliding amid a lack of concrete steps to support the industry.  Overall, tech and financial stocks were among the biggest drags on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. The measure is on track to fall about 2.6% this week, the largest weekly slide since mid-March. Bucking the regional trend, Japanese equities rose after a three-day holiday. India’s benchmark stocks index registered its worst weekly decline in more than five months as growing concerns over higher borrowing costs to curb inflation dented risk sentiment.  The S&P BSE Sensex declined 1.6% to 54,835.58 in Mumbai on Friday, taking its loss this week to 3.9%, the biggest five-day drop since the period ended Nov. 26. The NSE Nifty 50 Index slipped 1.6% to 16,411.25.  HDFC Bank Ltd. fell 2.6% and was the biggest drag on the Sensex, which had 24 of the 30 member stocks trading lower. All but two of 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. fell, led by a gauge of realty companies.  The Reserve Bank of India raised its policy rate by 40 basis points in an out-of-cycle move this week after keeping it at a record-low level of 4% for the past two years.  “This suggests that the scales of growth versus inflation is tilted towards inflation and can be leading indicator of further rate hikes in FY23,” Shibani Kurian, head of equity research at Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Co. wrote in a note. She expects market participants to focus on earnings and commentary on demand and margins from companies.  The U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England also raised rates to tackle rising inflation.     In earnings, of the 24 Nifty 50 firms that have announced results so far, 17 either met or exceeded analysts’ estimates, while seven missed forecasts. Reliance Industries Ltd., the nation’s largest company, is scheduled to announce its results Friday.  In rates, Treasuries extended Thursday’s bear-steepening move, with yields cheaper by 2bp to 4bp across the curve, amid bigger losses for German bonds after ECB’s Villeroy said above-zero rates are “reasonable” by year-end, and that there are signs inflation expectations are less anchored. US 10-year yields around 3.09%, cheaper by ~3bp on the day with 2s10s steeper by ~2.5bp; front-end yields outperform, higher by ~2bp at around 2.72%. Dollar issuance slate empty so far and expected to be muted because of jobs report; four names priced $7.6b Thursday taking weekly total above $16b, shy of $20b-$25b expected range. Peripheral spreads eventually tighten slightly to core after 10y BTP/Bund briefly widening through 200bps In FX, a gauge of the dollar’s strength was little changed as traders awaited a U.S. jobs report on Friday. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.2% as traders awaited the U.S. jobs report due on Friday. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 2 basis points to 3.05%. The yen underperformed most G-10 currencies as Japan’s markets reopened following a three-day holiday. Leveraged funds initiated long dollar-yen positions heading into U.S. payrolls data, according to an Asia-based FX trader Long gamma exposure in the major currencies meets a fresh round of demand following the Bank of England’s policy decision, which is contributing to continued erratic moves in the options space into the U.S. report. Real money and hedge funds both net USD buyers, according to three Europe-based traders, with demand for USD calls in the likes of EUR, AUD and MXN. In commodities, WTI trades within Thursday’s range, adding 1.6% to trade near $110. Spot gold rises roughly $5 to trade above $1,880/oz. Most base metals trade in the red. Bitcoin continues to slide, and was last trading below $36,000, after cracking to key support levels yesterday. Looking at the day ahead now, the main highlight will be the aforementioned US jobs report for April. Other data releases include German industrial production and Italian retail sales for March. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, Nagel, Elderson and Rehn, the Fed’s Williams, Kashkari and Bostic, and the BoE’s Pill and Tenreyro. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,140.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 434.26 MXAP down 1.6% to 164.46 MXAPJ down 2.7% to 538.32 Nikkei up 0.7% to 27,003.56 Topix up 0.9% to 1,915.91 Hang Seng Index down 3.8% to 20,001.96 Shanghai Composite down 2.2% to 3,001.56 Sensex down 1.4% to 54,941.03 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2.2% to 7,205.64 Kospi down 1.2% to 2,644.51 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.07% Euro up 0.3% to $1.0570 Brent Futures up 1.3% to $112.39/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,879.09 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.31% to 103.43 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said interest rates may be raised back above zero this year if the euro-zone economy doesn’t suffer another setback. The European Union has proposed a revision to its Russia oil sanctions ban that would give Hungary and Slovakia an extra year, until the end of 2024, to comply, according to people familiar with the matter. China has ordered central government agencies and state-backed corporations to replace foreign- branded personal computers with domestic alternatives within two years, marking one of Beijing’s most aggressive efforts so far to eradicate key overseas technology from within its most sensitive organs. Germany is ready to support eastern European nations in their efforts to wean themselves off Russian energy to secure broader support for sanctions targeting the country’s oil and gas sector, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Thursday The cost of living in Tokyo rose at the fastest pace in almost three decades in April, as the impact of soaring energy prices became clearer, an outcome that complicates the Bank of Japan’s messaging on inflation and the need for continued stimulus China’s top leaders warned against questioning Xi Jinping’s Covid Zero strategy, as pressure builds to relax virus curbs and protect the economic growth that has long been a source of Communist Party strength An escalating selloff in long-end Treasuries pushed yields to fresh multi-year highs Thursday, with the benchmark 10-year rate closing above 3% for the first time since 2018 as concern over inflation rattled the bond market Having plunged by the most on record in offshore trade last month, China’s yuan is now facing the threat of selling pressure from the nation’s companies The Federal Reserve will need to raise short-term interest rates to at least 3.5% to bring surging inflation under control, former Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said South Korea needs to act preemptively on risk factors while monitoring situations in the economy and markets, as there are concerns local financial and FX markets will react sensitively according to various factors, Vice Finance Minister Lee Eog-weon says A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mostly lower amid spillover selling from the sharp declines on Wall Street. ASX 200 was heavily pressured in which the losses in tech led the broad declines across all sectors. Nikkei 225 initially declined on return from the Golden Week holidays but then pared all its losses as currency weakness persisted with Japan also planning to introduce tax incentives, as well as ease border measures in June. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood with tech and property names dragging the Hong Kong benchmark lower, while China also remained steadfast in its "dynamic COVID clearance" policy. Top Asian News Adidas Shares Drop Amid ‘Dialed-Down’ Outlook: Street Wrap JAL Sees Return to Profit as Japan Moves to Reopen Borders Food Prices Hold Near Record as Ukraine War Upends Global Trade Nine in 10 Central Banks Exploring Own Digital Money, BIS Says European bourses are subdued across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.1%, reacting to the late-doors pressure in Wall Street. Currently, US futures are modestly softer but relatively tentative overall going into the NFP release and subsequent Fed speak. US regulatory officials have arrived in China for "late-stage" audit deal talks, according to Reuters sources. China's auto sales in April are estimated to have plunged 48.1% y-o-y to 1.17 million units, data from CAAM revealed. The recent Omicron outbreak has disrupted the auto sector, in particular in the Yangtze River Delta region, according to Global Times. Top European News EU Plan to Ban Russian Oil Means Windfall for Hungarian Refiner BNP Paribas Offers Up to EU400m Non-Dilutive Convertible Bonds ECB’s Villeroy Says Above-Zero Rates ‘Reasonable’ This Year Sorrell Pledges Changes After S4’s ‘Embarassing’ Results Lag In FX ECB officials ramp up hawkish rhetoric to boost Euro; EUR/USD makes round trip to high 1.0580 area from sub-1.0500. Pound continues to flounder as UK election results spell trouble for already under pressure PM Johnson and Tory Party, Cable under 1.2300 at one stage and EUR/GBP cross over 0.8550. Buck reverses all and more post-Fed losses pre-payrolls before Euro rebound knocks DXY back below 104.000, index down to new 103.340 low vs 104.070 peak. Aussie slumps despite hawkish RBA SOMP, Yen weak regardless of firmer than forecast Tokyo inflation data and return of Japanese markets from Golden Week; AUD/USD under 0.7100 and USD/JPY over 130.00. Loonie cushioned by strong crude prices ahead of Canadian LFS, USD/CAD within 1.2814-67 range and close to 1.29bln option expiries between 1.2835-40. Swedish Krona rangy after Riksbank minutes highlighting divergent views; EUR/SEK straddling 10.5000. Fixed Income EZ debt downed by latest hawkish ECB guidance, Bunds below 152.00 and periphery underperforming. Gilts hold up better on the 118-00 handle awaiting BoE commentary after super Thursday. US Treasuries dragged down by Eurozone bonds to an extent, as 10 year T-note pivots 118-00 ahead of NFP. Commodities WTI and Brent are bid in an exacerbation of APAC price action although, specific bullish-drivers have been somewhat sparse. Much of the focus has been on the potential EU Russian oil import embargo, particularly Hungary's ongoing opposition and the EU's attempts to appease them. Brazilian President Bolsonaro said a fresh hike in fuel prices by Petrobras could bankrupt Brazil and urged Petrobras not to increase fuel prices again, according to Reuters. PetroChina (0857 HK) says they have no plans to buy discounted Russian oil or gas, according to an executive. China is to sell 341k tonnes of imported soybeans from state reserve on May 13, according to the trade centre. Spot gold is bid but has failed to derive much traction above the 100- and 10-DMAs at USD 1883.08/oz and USD 1885.1/oz respectively. Central Banks ECB's Villeroy says too weak EUR would go against ECB inflation target; inflation is not only higher but broader; core inflation is firmly above target. Case for APP beyond June is not obvious. Adds, it is possible to raise rates into positive territory (i.e. above zero) by year-end. ECB's Nagel says current inflation too high, confident it can get back to 2% target in the medium-term; adds, window to act is closing. Is optimistic re. a 2022 move. Does not buy the argument that policy should hold back because of the economy right now, via FAZ. ECB's Holzmann said the ECB is planning to raise rates which they will discuss and probably do at the June meeting, while he added that rates will rise this year, by how much and when, will be discussed intensively in June, according to Reuters. ECB's Vasle says appropriate timing to start ECB hikes is "before summer"; inflation is becoming broad-based, cannot claim that monetary policy cannot curb inflation. BoE's Pill: says the BoE does not have a forex target or objective; when questioned on what would cause them to pause (re. hikes), says more evidence of factors becoming more consistent with target(s). If we don't see this, will have to act further. Market Snapshot 08:30: April Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 380,000, prior 431,000 April Change in Private Payrolls, est. 378,000, prior 426,000 April Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 35,000, prior 38,000 April Unemployment Rate, est. 3.5%, prior 3.6% April Underemployment Rate, prior 6.9% April Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.5%, prior 62.4% April Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 5.5%, prior 5.6% April Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.7, prior 34.6 April Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4% 15:00: March Consumer Credit, est. $25b, prior $41.8b Fed Speakers 09:15: Fed’s Williams Gives Opening Remarks 11:00: Fed’s Kashkari Takes Part in Moderated Discussion 15:00: Fed’s Bostic Gives Commencement Address at Georgia Tech 19:15: Fed’s Bullard and Waller Speak on Hoover Institute Panel 20:00: Fed’s Daly Gives Commencement Speech DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap What’s dangerous about yesterday’s huge market slump is that there must be an element of doubting the ability of there to be an effective "Fed Put" in this cycle following a 30-40 year period where the central bank has almost always been able to come to the market's rescue. As we know, Wednesday saw a strong post-FOMC rally (S&P 500 +2.99%) on a belief that the Fed would be relatively measured in their tightening cycle after Chair Powell pushed back against 75bp hikes. However in a remarkable turnaround yesterday (S&P 500 -3.56%) the only conclusion you can draw is that the market quickly realised that the Fed really aren't going to be able to control this cycle very easily. As you know our view is that the Fed won't be able to achieve a soft landing and that a recession is coming. This was something we dwelt on in our recent “What’s in the Tails?” piece (link here), where we expressed surprise that our call for a US recession in late-2023 was the outlier rather than the consensus given how far inflation is from target and the tightness of the US labour market right now (more today on this in the payrolls report). I can't help but think that a great deal of the reaction yesterday was the appreciation that whilst the Fed can make soothing pronouncements, they are starting from an extraordinary difficult starting point, and with limited flexibility to respond to market or economy concerns whilst they fight inflation. The Bank of England couldn't have helped either, as they became the first major central bank to forecast a contraction in 2023 alongside double-digit inflation later this year. In terms of the moves themselves, US Treasury yields soared to fresh highs for this cycle at the long end, with those on 10yr Treasuries up +10.2bps at 3.04%, after a volatile day that saw 10yr yields increase as much as +17.2bps to 3.11% intra-day, meaning the 10yr range since the FOMC has been +21bps wide. Yesterday’s increase was driven entirely by real yields, which snapped back up by +12.2bps to 0.18%, thus closing at their highest levels since the Covid-related tumult in March 2020. Real yields were also as much as +17.2bps higher intraday, showing they were a large component of yesterday’s volatility. The rise in yields came as investors retraced some of their expectations from the previous day about a shallower pace of monetary tightening, raising the expected rate at the Fed’s December meeting by +5.0bps. And there was further evidence that the Fed’s tightening cycle is already having an effect on the real economy, with Freddie Mac reporting that the average rate for a 30-year mortgage had risen to 5.27%, which is the highest its been since 2009. It also marks a +231bp increase over the last year, which is the largest annual increase in mortgage rates since 1982. Those trends have continued this morning, with yields on 10yr USTs up +1.9bps to 3.06%, and the policy rate priced for December’s meeting up a further +1.3bps. With yields bouncing higher, US equities were hammered once again with the more interest-sensitive tech stocks leading the way. As mentioned at the top, the S&P 500 fell back by -3.56%, which would be more newsworthy were it not for the fact that Friday’s -3.63% decline was even larger! Tech and mega-cap stocks really bore the brunt of the sell-off, as the NASDAQ slumped -4.99%, the largest since June 2020, and the FANG+ index fell -6.43%, the largest since September 2020, with all those indices ending a run of 3 consecutive advances. The sharp turnaround sent the VIX +6.07pts higher, and back above 30 at 31.49. It was a somewhat better picture in Europe, but that reflected the fact they hadn’t participated in the massive US rally after the Fed. However the major indices lost ground continuously through the day, with the STOXX 600 erasing an initial gain of +1.84% immediately after the open to end the day -0.70% lower. Yesterday’s volatility came alongside a fresh round of central bank news, with the Bank of England continuing its recent series of rate hikes. In terms of the main headlines, they hiked by 25bps as expected to take Bank Rate up to 1%, and 3 of the 9 members on the Committee were even in favour of a larger 50bps move. Nevertheless, the decision was interpreted in a very dovish light, as two members did not find it appropriate to provide guidance for more rate hikes going forward, so potentially a three-way split on the committee. Adding to the dovish interpretation, the growth forecasts produced by the BoE were significantly downgraded, and now see an annual economic contraction occurring in 2023. Furthermore, they upgraded their inflation forecasts once again, seeing CPI rising further over the rest of 2022, and averaging “slightly over 10% at its peak” in Q4. For more info on the BoE, see our economist’s full reaction note (link here). The more downbeat news on the economy led investors to reappraise the likely path of future hikes from the BoE, and overnight index swaps took out -17bps worth of tightening by the December meeting in response. In turn, sterling was the worst-performing G10 currency yesterday, with a -2.13% move against the US Dollar, which came as investors took stock of the potential for a more gradual tightening, as well as the prospect of a UK recession. The developments also meant that gilts outperformed their counterparts elsewhere in Europe, with the 10yr yield coming down -0.3bps on the day, a big contrast to those on bunds (+7.3bps), OATs (+7.2bps) and BTPs (+8.3bps) which all moved higher. These losses were witnessed over on the credit side as well, where the iTraxx Crossover index moved up +19.3bps to 453bps, the highest its been since May 2020. Those moves higher in Euro Area yields came as the drum beat for an ECB rate hike as soon as July continued, with Bank of Finland’s Governor Rehn endorsing a hike in July. This is a world away from the situation just after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when there was serious scepticism among many that the ECB would be able to hike at all this year given the growth shock. But the inflation developments have outweighed that, and overnight index swaps are still pricing in 89bps worth of hikes this year, enough to take the current -0.5% deposit rate firmly into positive territory. Remember DB is forecasting +100bps of hikes before year end. Overnight in Asia, equities have similarly begun the day deep in negative territory, tracking those sharp overnight losses on Wall Street. Across the region, the Hang Seng (-3.67%) is the largest underperformer with tech firms among the worst hit. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (-2.31%) and CSI 300 (-2.59%) have also seen a large slide as COVID-19 lockdowns continue to darken the economic outlook and weigh on investor sentiment. There’ve been further signs they’ll be continuing their zero Covid strategy overnight, with state broadcaster CCTV reporting that the Politburo’s seven-member Standing Committee reaffirmed their support for the approach. The only place not seeing large slides overnight are Japanese markets, where the Nikkei is up +0.92%, but that reflects the fact they’ve come back to trade today after 3 days of holidays. Looking forward, US stock futures are pointing to a stabilization today, with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.02%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.02%) marginally lower. From the perspective of the major central banks, another negative development over the last 24 hours has been the continued rise in oil prices, with Brent Crude up another +0.69% yesterday to reach $110.90/bbl. The move was driven by the news that the US Energy Department would begin the process of replenishing its oil reserves, with a process to buy 60m barrels in the autumn. That said, prices pared back their gains in the European afternoon as the more negative risk-off move took hold, with prices declining from an intraday high of $114/bbl at one point. This morning in Asian trading hours, Brent crude (+0.50%) is extending its gains again, now at $111.46/bbl. Looking forward now, the main highlight today will likely be the US jobs report for April, which along with next Wednesday’s CPI reading will help frame the policy debate over the 6 weeks ahead of the next FOMC meeting in mid-June. In terms of what to expect, our economists think that nonfarm payrolls will have risen by +465k, which in turn will lower the unemployment rate by a tenth to 3.5%. That would be a significant milestone, since 3.5% was the pre-pandemic low in the unemployment rate. On the data side, the US weekly initial jobless claims came in at 200k in the week through April 30 (vs. 180k expected). Elsewhere, German factory orders fell by a larger-than-expected -4.7% in March (vs. -1.1% expected). To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned US jobs report for April. Other data releases include German industrial production and Italian retail sales for March. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, Nagel, Elderson and Rehn, the Fed’s Williams, Kashkari and Bostic, and the BoE’s Pill and Tenreyro. Tyler Durden Fri, 05/06/2022 - 08:01.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytMay 6th, 2022

ETF Areas in the Spotlight Post Buffett"s 2022 Meeting

Here, we highlight a few ETF areas that have received the spotlight since Buffett's in-person annual meeting on Apr 30. Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett held his conglomerate’s first in-person annual meeting since 2019 on Apr 30. This was a widely attended event as many shareholders wanted to listen to their favorite investment guru, popularly known as the “Oracle of Omaha”. The meeting, also famously dubbed as “Woodstock for Capitalists” was attended by some big CEOs like Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan JPM, Activision’s CEO Bobby Kotick as well as Apple’s AAPL CEO Tim Cook, per a CNBC article.Given the excitement about this meeting in the investment world, it definitely brought a lot of ETF areas into the spotlight. Let’s take a look at some of them:Energy ETFsBuffett has been focusing on the energy sector, which has been one of the best performing S&P 500 sectors in 2022.  In fact, the energy space has remained a prime investment area holding the interest of market participants since the beginning of the year. Reopening global economies, accelerated coronavirus vaccine rollout and improving labor markets were adding to the strength in the sector. Going on, the rally in oil prices due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis added to the sector’s momentum.Buffett has increased his investment in Chevron CVX by around 475.6% since the end of 2021. The above-mentioned was worth $25.9 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2022 versus its value of $4.5 billion at 2021-end (per a CNBC article). Notably, Chevron pays a 3.6% dividend. Buffett also scooped up 14% of oil giant Occidental Petroleum OXY, worth more than $7 billion, in two weeks during March.Against the bullish energy sector backdrop, let’s take a look at some energy ETFs that are worth adding for more returns: Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production ETF PXE, Vanguard Energy ETF VDE, Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (FENY), The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) and iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE) (read: Exxon, Chevron Lags Q1 Earnings, Up YoY: Energy ETFs in Focus).Financial ETFsBuffett has a reputation for favoring banks. He had invested $5 billion into Bank of America BAC in 2011 to support the banking industry, per a CNBC article. Bank of America and American Express AXP were two of Buffett’s other major holdings, worth $42.6 billion and $28.4 billion, respectively, at the end of the first quarter of 2022.The shift toward a tighter monetary policy will push yields higher, thereby helping the financial sector. This is because rising rates will help in boosting profits for banks, insurance companies, discount brokerage firms and asset managers. The steepening of the yield curve (the difference between short and long-term interest rates) is likely to support banks’ net interest margins. As a result, net interest income, which constitutes a chunk of banks’ revenues, is likely to receive support from the steepening of the yield curve and a modest rise in loan demand. Notably, as the economy starts operating in full swing, the banking space will be able to generate more business.Let’s take a look at some financial ETFs that can gain from the current environment: iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF IYG, Invesco KBW Bank Portfolio KBWB, The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) and ETFMG Prime Mobile Payments ETF (IPAY) (read: 5 ETF Strategies to Follow in May).Technology ETFsThe technology giant Apple continues to be Berkshire’s biggest holding, worth $159.1 billion at the end of March 2022, accounting for about 40% of its equity portfolio (as stated in a CNBC article). According the same article, Buffett bought $600 million worth of Apple shares post a three-day fall in the stock last quarter. Berkshire has received regular dividends from Apple over the years, averaging nearly $775 million annually (per a CNBC article).Berkshire announced a major stake in tech hardware stock HP Inc. HPQ at the beginning of April. He scooped up nearly 121-million HP shares worth roughly $4.2 billion.ETFs with the largest allocation to the tech titans have been in focus. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK, Vanguard Information Technology ETF VGT, MSCI Information Technology Index ETF FTEC, iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) and iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF (IWY) have Apple as the top firm with a double-digit allocation (read: Apple Beats on Earnings, Issues Weak Outlook: ETFs in Focus).Bitcoin ETFsNot all the ETF areas have been hogging the spotlight for the right reasons since the Berkshire’s annual meeting. This area of investment that has been historically criticized by Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman of Charlie Munger. Buffett believes that the bitcoins are incapable of producing anything or multiplying in comparison to tangible investment forms like farmland and rental properties, per a CNBC article.Buffett even mentioned that “If you ... owned all of the bitcoin in the world and you offered it to me for $25, I wouldn’t take it,” Buffett said. “Because what would I do with it? I’ll have to sell it back to you one way or another. It isn’t going to do anything,” as stated in a CNBC article.  Munger expressed his views on cryptocurrency more bluntly by stating that “In my life I try and avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad in comparison with somebody else — and Bitcoin does all three,” according to an article on, the stern views of Buffett might put ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF BITO in a tough spot. Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week.Get it free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Bank of America Corporation (BAC): Free Stock Analysis Report JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): Free Stock Analysis Report Apple Inc. (AAPL): Free Stock Analysis Report HP Inc. (HPQ): Free Stock Analysis Report Chevron Corporation (CVX): Free Stock Analysis Report American Express Company (AXP): Free Stock Analysis Report Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY): Free Stock Analysis Report Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE): ETF Research Reports Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB): ETF Research Reports iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF (IYG): ETF Research Reports Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF (FTEC): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT): ETF Research Reports Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production ETF (PXE): ETF Research Reports ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO): ETF Research Reports To read this article on click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksMay 4th, 2022

US stocks reverse course to close higher even as 10-year Treasury hits 3% and Fed rate hike looms

Of the 275 companies on the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 77% of them have beaten profit estimates by a median of 8%. Investors have become more cautious about US stocks in recent weeks.Johannes Eisele/Getty ImagesThe Nasdaq jumped more than 1.5% on Monday despite trending lower for most of the day as interest rates surged.The US 10-year Treasury yield hit 3.00% for the first time since 2018 as the Fed is set to raise interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday.First-quarter earnings results continue to roll-in, and 77% of companies that have reported so far have beaten profit estimates.US stocks whipsawed on Monday as investors digested surging interest rates, first-quarter earnings results, and brace for a Federal Reserve rate decision later this week.The S&P 500 led stocks lower for much of the day, falling as much as 1% before investors began to buy the dip and push the broader market higher near the end of the day. The Nasdaq finished up by nearly 2%.The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, with an interest rate decision to be revealed at 2 p.m. on Wednesday. Market participants expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to announce an increase to the federal funds rate of 50 basis points, just two months after it made its first 25-basis-point hike of the cycle in a bid to tame inflation. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 3.00% for the first time since 2018 on Monday.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. ET close on Monday:S&P 500: 4,155.38, up 0.57%Dow Jones Industrial Average: 33,061.50, up 0.26% (84.29 points)Nasdaq Composite: 12,536.02, up 1.63%Meanwhile, first-quarter earnings continue to roll in, with about 55% of S&P 500 companies having already reported results. Of those companies, 77% are beating profit estimates by a median of 8%. Additionally, 69% of those companies are beating revenue estimates by a median of 4%, according to Fundstrat.Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway held its annual shareholder meeting over the weekend, and Insider's Theron Mohamed traveled to Omaha, Nebraska, to document the event.The $785 billion conglomerate revealed that it bought a net $41 billion in stocks last quarter, while slowing down the pace of its own share repurchases. Clearly, Buffett still sees opportunity in the stock market despite the recent volatility.Berkshire purchased shares of Activision Blizzard after Microsoft announced its proposed acquisition in a merger arbitrage play, and it also increased its position in Apple, which by far represents its largest stock portfolio holding. Despite losing more than $2 billion on its position, Cathie Wood's Ark Invest continues to buy shares of Teladoc after its nearly 50% earnings-driven implosion last week. The innovation-focused investor bought more than 600,000 shares of the tele-medicine company across its ETFs on Thursday and reiterated a bullish view on the company in an e-mail to investors.Goldman Sachs' traders recorded 32 separate $100 million-revenue days during the first quarter of this year, the bank said Monday in a regulatory filing. That's good for about half the total trading days in the three months up to March — Goldman's best run since 2011, Bloomberg data shows.West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose as much as much as 0.85% to $105.58 per barrel. Brent crude, oil's international benchmark, jumped as much as 0.87% to $108.07.Bitcoin fell 0.30% to $38,582. Ether prices rose 0.13% to $2,845.Gold fell as much as 2.58% to $1,863.20 per ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury added seven basis points to 3.0%.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderMay 2nd, 2022

10 Reasons to Join Your Peers in Washington this September

More than 500 of real estate’s most influential leaders will be gathering in the nation’s capital this September 6-8 for RISMedia’s 33rd annual CEO & Leadership Exchange, taking place at the famed Mayflower Hotel in Washington, D.C. The time-honored event convenes the industry’s best minds to collectively chart a successful path forward, more important than… The post 10 Reasons to Join Your Peers in Washington this September appeared first on RISMedia. More than 500 of real estate’s most influential leaders will be gathering in the nation’s capital this September 6-8 for RISMedia’s 33rd annual CEO & Leadership Exchange, taking place at the famed Mayflower Hotel in Washington, D.C. The time-honored event convenes the industry’s best minds to collectively chart a successful path forward, more important than ever in today’s volatile landscape. REGISTER NOW Here are 10 reasons why you should join RISMedia and your esteemed peers from across the country for the 2022 CEO & Leadership Exchange: 1. The critical topics. RISMedia has developed a comprehensive educational agenda taking place over the two-and-a-half day event. More than 25 presentations and panel discussions will address the industry’s most urgent issues and unpack the most critical trends for moving forward. Sessions include (see the full agenda here): In It for the Long Haul? Evaluating the Staying Power of Your Business Model The Evolution of the Listing Portals: Identifying and Confronting New Threats Ready for What’s Next: Staying Profitable in a Balanced Market Leaning Into Affiliated Services to Safeguard Profitability Stop the Revolving Door: Keeping Your Agents on Board and Engaged How Emerging Technology Will Impact Your Business 2. The expert line-up. More than 100 C-level executives representing top brokerage firms, ‘disruptor’ models, leading agent teams, tech innovators, and powerful MLSs and associations are scheduled to speak at the CEO & Leadership Exchange. Here’s a small sample of our superstar line-up: Joe Rand, Howard Hanna | Rand Realty Christy Budnick, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Errol Samuelson, Zillow Stephanie Anton, The Corcoran Group James Dwiggins, NextHome Ige Johnson, RE/MAX Generation Thad Wong, Christie’s International Real Estate Christina Pappas, The Keyes Company/Illustrated Properties Mike Miedler, Century 21 Real Estate Sue Yannaccone, Realogy 3. The keynote speakers. Exclusive keynote presentations from industry luminaries will offer invaluable insights into the present and future state of the industry: The Global View of Real Estate: Paul Boomsma, Leading Real Estate Companies of the World® How Inventory, Affordability and Inflation are Impacting the Market: Lawrence Yun, National Association of REALTORS® The State of Real Estate: Gino Blefari, HomeServices of America Evolving Your Leadership Approach for Today’s Market; Dermot Buffini, Buffini & Company How a Changing Political Landscape May Impact Your Business: Ken Trepeta, RESPRO 4. The exclusive pre-event sessions. Two pre-event educational tracks will take place on September 6th, prior to the opening session of the CEO & Leadership Exchange: The MLS Issues track will address critical factors impacting the MLS environment, from policy change to data sharing. The Brokerage M&A track will provide strategies and case studies for successfully growing your firm.  Leaders in the MLS and M&A space will be presenting these special sessions, available to attendees by invitation only.  5. The best networking. RISMedia continues its tradition of gracious hospitality and unparalleled networking opportunities at the CEO & Leadership Exchange. During our VIP luncheon, Welcome Reception, Networking Breakfast and more, you’ll have ample opportunity to connect and share with your colleagues from around the country. Additionally, the Mayflower Hotel offers many convenient spots for fostering business collaborations or catching up with old friends. 6. The Newsmakers. On Wednesday evening, September 7, RISMedia will host its annual Newsmakers Reception & Dinner, honoring RISMedia’s 2022 Real Estate Newsmakers and inducting out 2022 Newsmaker Hall of Fame. The star-studded gala event will take place onsite at the Mayflower Hotel, adding a night of tribute and celebration to your stay. 7. The convenient and impressive location. Just half a mile from the White House, the recently updated Mayflower Hotel boasts a prime Washington, D.C. location. A favorite among political power players, iconic athletes and Hollywood legends, the hotel’s storied guest list includes the likes of J. Edgar Hoover, Muhammed Ali, Amelia Earhart and John Wayne. All CEO & Leadership sessions and networking events will take place under one roof at the Mayflower, and we’ve secured an incredible rate for our guests (the room block is filling up, so don’t delay). 8. The diversity of attendees. You will be in the best possible company at the CEO & Leadership Exchange, attended by some of the most dynamic and inspiring leaders in residential real estate. Attendees hail from all regions of the country and represent a variety of business models, both independent and franchise firms, large companies and small, adding an important mix of viewpoints and experiences to the conversation.  9. The idea-sharing. Over the course of the two-and-a-half day event, you will gather an array of actionable ideas to take back to your team and incorporate into your business plan, all shared with a common goal: to grow your company and better serve agents and consumers. The CEO & Leadership Exchange is specifically designed to leave attendees with real-world, tangible strategies…not just rhetoric. 10. The future health of your business. These are unpredictable times. Preparing your business to succeed no matter what obstacles lie ahead is more important than ever. RISMedia’s CEO & Leadership Exchange will leave you with a road map for the future, helping you to navigate challenges and raise your success to new levels. For more information and to register, please visit Early-bird pricing ends May 1. 2022 CEO & Leadership Exchange Sponsors Title Sponsor Bank of America Diamond Sponsors Colibri Real Estate Real Estate Webmasters Realty ONE Group RIbbon Master Sponsors Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Bright MLS Buffini & Company Century 21 Real Estate Corcoran Curbio Elm Street Technology ERA Real Estate | Homesnap Inside Real Estate Lone Wolf Technologies MoxiWorks National Association of REALTORS® Rocket Mortgage Zillow Host Sponsors Accredited Buyer’s Representative (ABR®) Designation Attom Data Solutions Buyside Cinch Home Services Cole Information eXp Realty homegenius Leading Real Estate Companies of the World® Pacaso Pillar To Post Home Inspectors Realtors Property Resource RE/MAX Revive Sherri Johnson Consulting Skyslope The post 10 Reasons to Join Your Peers in Washington this September appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaApr 29th, 2022

Correction - Eagle Bancorp Montana Earns $2.2 Million, or $0.34 per Diluted Share, in First Quarter of 2022; Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend of $0.125 per Share and Renews Stock Repurchase Plan

HELENA, Mont., April 27, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Eagle Bancorp Montana, Inc.  (NASDAQ:EBMT), (the "Company," "Eagle"), the holding company of Opportunity Bank of Montana (the "Bank"), today announced a correction of its earnings press release issued on April 26, 2022, and reported net income of $2.2 million, or $0.34 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2022, compared to $5.3 million, or $0.78 per diluted share, in the first quarter a year ago, and increased 19.5% compared to $1.7 million, or $0.26 per diluted share, in the preceding quarter.  Financial results for the past few quarters reflect a mortgage market that is returning to more normal levels and reduced origination fees for Paycheck Protection Program ("PPP") loan forgiveness. Eagle's board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share on April 21, 2022. The dividend will be payable June 3, 2022 to shareholders of record May 13, 2022. The current annualized dividend yield is 2.26% based on recent market prices. "We delivered strong first quarter earnings, fueled by continuing strength in asset quality and balance sheet expansion," said Peter J. Johnson, CEO. "We achieved double digit loan and deposit growth compared to a year ago, while keeping expenses in check. While lower volumes of mortgage activity impacted earnings compared to the year ago quarter, we remain optimistic for our growth prospects for the year ahead." On October 1, 2021, Eagle announced that it had reached an agreement to acquire First Community Bancorp, Inc. and its subsidiary, First Community Bank ("First Community"). "Our proposed merger recently received all regulatory approvals and is on schedule to close at the end of April," said Laura F. Clark, President. "First Community is an experienced agriculture and commercial lender with a 130-year operating history in Montana and deep roots in the communities it serves. This transaction will expand our presence across the state of Montana and build on our reputation as an experienced and preferred agricultural lender. We foresee this merger, like other recent acquisitions, resulting in significant benefits to our expanding group of clients, communities, employees and shareholders." Headquartered in Glasgow, Montana, First Community is the largest bank headquartered in Northeast Montana, and currently operates nine branches and two mortgage loan production offices, including commercial-focused branches in Helena and Three Forks in Gallatin County. Upon completion of the acquisition, Opportunity Bank of Montana will have 32 retail branches in key commercial and agricultural markets across Montana. First Quarter 2022 Highlights (at or for the three-month period ended March 31, 2022, except where noted): Net income was $2.2 million, or $0.34 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2022, compared to $1.7 million, or $0.26 per diluted share, in the preceding quarter, and $5.3 million, or $0.78 per diluted share, in the first quarter a year ago. Net interest margin ("NIM") was 3.64% in the first quarter of 2022, compared to 3.75% in the preceding quarter, and 3.97% in the first quarter a year ago. Revenues (net interest income before the loan loss provision, plus noninterest income) were $20.1 million in the first quarter of 2022, compared to $21.8 million in the preceding quarter and $24.5 million in the first quarter a year ago.   Remaining purchase discount on loans from acquisitions prior to 2021 totaled $884,000 as of March 31, 2022. The accretion of the loan purchase discount into loan interest income from the Western Bank of Wolf Point, and previous acquisitions was $108,000 in the first quarter of 2022, compared to interest accretion on purchased loans from acquisitions of $171,000 in the preceding quarter. The allowance for loan losses represented 202.9% of nonperforming loans at March 31, 2022, compared to 146.7% a year earlier. Total loans increased 15.6% to $958.7 million, at March 31, 2022, compared to $829.3 million a year earlier and increased 2.7% compared to $933.1 million at December 31, 2021. Total deposits increased 16.2% to $1.27 billion at March 31, 2022, from $1.09 billion a year ago, and increased 3.9% compared to $1.22 billion at December 31, 2021. Eagle remained well capitalized with a tangible common shareholders' equity ratio of 8.24% at March 31, 2022. Paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share on March 4, 2022 to shareholders of record February 11, 2022. Balance Sheet Results Eagle's total assets increased 13.8% to $1.49 billion at March 31, 2022, compared to $1.31 billion a year ago, and increased 3.9% from $1.44 billion three months earlier.   Strong commercial real estate and commercial construction activity more than offset PPP loan forgiveness, causing the loan portfolio to grow approximately 15.6% compared to a year ago and grow approximately 2.7% from the previous quarter end. Eagle originated $177.5 million in new residential mortgages during the quarter and sold $172.1 million in residential mortgages, with an average gross margin on sale of mortgage loans of approximately 3.62%. This production compares to residential mortgage originations of $235.4 million in the preceding quarter with sales of $239.0 million and an average gross margin on sale of mortgage loans of approximately 4.11%. There has been some margin compression due to increased competition. Commercial real estate loans increased 31.3% to $433.0 million at March 31, 2022, compared to $329.8 million a year earlier. Commercial construction and development loans increased 58.5% to $105.8 million, compared to $66.7 million a year ago. Construction projects were slow to start in early 2021 due to COVID-19 concerns and initial supply chain issues, but have picked up in recent quarters. Agricultural and farmland loans decreased 6.0% to $110.2 million at March 31, 2022, compared to $117.2 million a year earlier. Residential mortgage loans decreased 1.7% to $99.2 million, compared to $100.9 million a year earlier. Commercial loans decreased 9.6% to $98.5 million, compared to $109.0 million a year ago, reflecting SBA PPP loan forgiveness. Home equity loans increased 1.0% to $53.8 million, residential construction loans increased 15.2% to $41.0 million, and consumer loans decreased 3.0% to $18.8 million, compared to a year ago.   Total deposits increased 16.2% to $1.27 billion at March 31, 2022, compared to $1.09 billion at March 31, 2021, and increased 3.9% from $1.22 billion at December 31, 2021. Noninterest-bearing checking accounts represented 29.3%, interest-bearing checking accounts represented 16.5%, savings accounts represented 18.3%, money market accounts comprised 24.6% and time certificates of deposit made up 11.3% of the total deposit portfolio at March 31, 2022. Shareholders' equity was $143.5 million at March 31, 2022, compared to $155.8 million a year earlier and $156.7 million three months earlier. The decrease compared to both the prior quarter and the first quarter a year ago is primarily due to unrealized losses on securities available-for-sale caused by the recent increase in interest rates. Tangible book value was $18.08 per share, at March 31, 2022, compared to $19.60 per share a year earlier and $19.74 per share three months earlier.   Operating Results "Lower yields on interest earning assets continued to put pressure on our NIM during the first quarter," said Johnson. "However, with the recent rate increase enacted by the Federal Reserve at the end of the quarter, we anticipate improvement in our NIM in future quarters, especially with the possibility of additional rate increases throughout the year."   Eagle's NIM was 3.64% in the first quarter of 2022, compared to 3.75% in the preceding quarter, and 3.97% in the first quarter a year ago. The interest accretion on acquired loans totaled $108,000 and resulted in a three basis-point increase in the NIM during the first quarter of 2022, compared to $171,000 and a five basis-point increase in the NIM during the preceding quarter. PPP fee income on loans totaled $177,000 and resulted in a five basis-point increase in the NIM during the first quarter of 2022, compared to $407,000 and a 13 basis-point increase in the NIM during the previous quarter. PPP fee income of $500,000 in the first quarter of 2021 resulted in an 18 basis-point increase in the NIM. The investment securities portfolio decreased to $264.6 million at March 31, 2022, compared to $271.3 million at December 31, 2021, which was driven by changes in market values. However, the portfolio increased $84.4 million from $180.3 million at March 31, 2021 due to purchases resulting from excess liquidity levels. Average yields on earning assets for the first quarter decreased to 3.92% from 4.28% a year ago. Eagle's first quarter revenues decreased to $20.1 million, compared to $21.8 million in the preceding quarter and $24.5 million in the first quarter a year ago. The decrease compared to the first quarter a year ago was largely due to lower volumes in mortgage banking activity. Net interest income, before the loan loss provision, decreased 1.7% to $11.8 million in the first quarter, compared to $12.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2021, and increased 6.3% compared to $11.1 million in the first quarter of 2021. The decrease compared to the prior quarter reflected lower origination fees for PPP loan payoffs or forgiveness during the current quarter, compared to the prior quarter. Eagle's total noninterest income decreased 14.6% to $8.3 million in the first quarter of 2022, compared to $9.7 million in the preceding quarter, and decreased 38.1% compared to $13.4 million in the first quarter a year ago. Net mortgage banking, the largest component of noninterest income, totaled $6.2 million in the first quarter of 2022, compared to $7.7 million in the preceding quarter and $11.8 million in the first quarter a year ago. These decreases were driven by a decline in net gain on sale of mortgage loans, as well as changes in the fair value of loans held-for sale and derivatives. These changes are largely driven by the reduced volumes in mortgage activity. First quarter noninterest expense decreased to $16.9 million, compared to $19.1 million in the preceding quarter and $17.2 million in the first quarter a year ago. The decrease compared to both the prior quarter and the year ago quarter reflects lower commissions paid on residential mortgage originations. Acquisition costs were also down for the first quarter of 2022 compared to the preceding quarter related to the proposed merger with First Community. For the first quarter of 2022, the income tax provision totaled $695,000, for an effective tax rate of 23.9%, compared to $632,000 in the preceding quarter, and $1.8 million in the first quarter of 2021.   Credit Quality The loan loss provision was $279,000 in the first quarter of 2022, compared to $285,000 in the preceding quarter and $299,000 in the first quarter a year ago. The allowance for loan losses represented 202.9% of nonperforming loans at March 31, 2022, compared to 177.1% three months earlier and 146.7% a year earlier. Nonperforming loans decreased to $6.3 million at March 31, 2022, compared to $7.1 million at December 31, 2021, and $8.1 million a year earlier. Local economies continue to rebound from the pandemic and loan quality has remained strong. Eagle had $346,000 in other real estate owned and other repossessed assets on its books at March 31, 2022. This compared to $4,000 at December 31, 2021, and none at March 31, 2021. Net loan charge-offs totaled $79,000 in the first quarter of 2022, compared to net loan recoveries of $15,000 in the preceding quarter and net loan recoveries of $1,000 in the first quarter a year ago. The allowance for loan losses was $12.7 million, or 1.32% of total loans, at March 31, 2022, compared to $12.5 million, or 1.34% of total loans, at December 31, 2021, and $11.9 million, or 1.43% of total loans, a year ago.   Capital Management Eagle Bancorp Montana, Inc. continues to be well capitalized with the ratio of tangible common shareholders' equity (shareholders' equity, less goodwill and core deposit intangible) to tangible assets (total assets, less goodwill and core deposit intangible) of 8.24% as of March 31, 2022. Stock Repurchase Authority Eagle announced that its Board of Directors has authorized repurchase of up to 400,000 shares of its common stock, representing approximately 5.0% of outstanding shares, assuming the issuance of shares pursuant to the First Community acquisition scheduled to close at the end of April. Under the plan, shares may be purchased by the company on the open market or in privately negotiated transactions. The extent to which the Company repurchases its shares and the timing of such repurchase will depend upon market conditions and other corporate considerations. The plan is expected to be in place for approximately 12 months, but may be suspended, terminated or modified by the Company's Board of Directors at any time. The plan does not obligate the Company to purchase any particular number of shares. Recent Events On January 21, 2022, the Company completed the issuance of $40.0 million in aggregate principal amount of subordinated notes due in 2032 in a private placement transaction to certain institutional accredited investors and qualified buyers. The notes will bear interest at an annual fixed rate of 3.50% payable semi-annually until August of 2027 at which point interest will accrue at a floating rate payable quarterly. A portion of the net proceeds were used to redeem $10.0 million of 5.75% fixed senior notes due February 15, 2022. About the Company Eagle Bancorp Montana, Inc. is a bank holding company headquartered in Helena, Montana, and is the holding company of Opportunity Bank of Montana, a community bank established in 1922 that serves consumers and small businesses in Montana through 23 banking offices. Additional information is available on the Bank's website at The shares of Eagle Bancorp Montana, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Market under the symbol "EBMT." Forward Looking Statements This release may contain certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and may be identified by the use of such words as "believe," "will"' "expect," "anticipate," "should," "planned," "estimated," and "potential." These forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to statements of our goals, intentions and expectations; statements regarding our business plans, prospects, mergers, including the proposed transaction with First Community, growth and operating strategies; statements regarding the current global COVID-19 pandemic, statements regarding the asset quality of our loan and investment portfolios; and estimates of our risks and future costs and benefits. These forward-looking statements are based on current beliefs and expectations of our management and are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond our control. In addition, these forward-looking statements are subject to assumptions with respect to future business strategies and decisions that are subject to change. These factors include, but are not limited to, changes in laws or government regulations or policies affecting financial institutions, including changes in regulatory fees and capital requirements; general economic conditions and political events, either nationally or in our market areas, that are worse than expected; the duration and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, including but not limited to the efficiency of the vaccine rollout, new variants, steps taken by governmental and other authorities to contain, mitigate and combat the pandemic, adverse effects on our employees, customers and third-party service providers, the increase in cyberattacks in the current work-from-home environment, the ultimate extent of the impacts on our business, financial position, results of operations, liquidity and prospects, continued deterioration in general business and economic conditions could adversely affect our revenues and the values of our assets and liabilities, lead to a tightening of credit and increase stock price volatility, and potential impairment charges; competition among depository and other financial institutions; loan demand or residential and commercial real estate values in Montana; the concentration of our business in Montana; our ability to continue to increase and manage our commercial real estate, commercial business and agricultural loans; the costs and effects of legal, compliance and regulatory actions, changes and developments, including the initiation and resolution of legal proceedings (including any securities, bank operations, consumer or employee litigation); inflation and changes in the interest rate environment that reduce our margins or reduce the fair value of financial instruments; adverse changes in the securities markets; other economic, governmental, competitive, regulatory and technological factors that may affect our operations; cyber incidents, or theft or loss of Company or customer data or money; the effect of our recent acquisitions, including the failure to achieve expected revenue growth and/or expense savings, the failure to effectively integrate their operations and the diversion of management time on issues related to the integration. In addition, future factors related to the proposed transaction between Eagle and First Community, include, among others: the occurrence of any event, change or other circumstances that could give rise to the right of one or both of the parties to terminate the definitive merger agreement between Eagle and First Community; the outcome of any legal proceedings that may be instituted against Eagle or First Community; the possibility that the proposed transaction will not close when expected or at all because conditions to the closing are not satisfied on a timely basis or at all; the risk that any announcements relating to the proposed combination could have adverse effects on the market price of the common stock of Eagle; the possibility that the anticipated benefits of the transaction will not be realized when expected or at all, including as a result of the impact of, or problems arising from, the integration of the two companies or as a result of the strength of the economy and competitive factors in the areas where Eagle and First Community do business; the possibility that the transaction may be more expensive to complete than anticipated, including as a result of unexpected factors or events; diversion of management's attention from ongoing business operations and opportunities; potential adverse reactions or changes to business or employee relationships, including those resulting from the announcement or completion of the transaction; Eagle's and First Community's success in executing their respective business plans and strategies and managing the risks involved in the foregoing; and other factors that may affect future results of Eagle and First Community; the business, economic and political conditions in the markets in which the parties operate; the risk that the proposed combination and its announcement could have an adverse effect on either or both parties' ability to retain customers and retain or hire key personnel and maintain relationships with customers; the risk that the proposed combination may be more difficult or time-consuming than anticipated, including in areas such as sales force, cost containment, asset realization, systems integration and other key strategies; revenues following the proposed combination may be lower than expected, including for possible reasons such as unexpected costs, charges or expenses resulting from the transactions; the unforeseen risks relating to liabilities of Eagle or First Community that may exist; and uncertainty as to the extent of the duration, scope, and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on First Community, Eagle and the proposed combination. Because of these and other uncertainties, our actual future results may be materially different from the results indicated by these forward-looking statements. All information set forth in this press release is current as of the date of this release and the company undertakes no duty or obligation to update this information. Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures In addition to results presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles utilized in the United States, or GAAP, the Financial Ratios and Other Data contains non-GAAP financial measures. Non-GAAP disclosures include: 1) core efficiency ratio, 2) tangible book value per share, 3) tangible common equity to tangible assets, 4) earnings per diluted share, excluding acquisition costs and 5) return on average assets, excluding acquisition costs. The Company uses these non-GAAP financial measures to provide meaningful supplemental information regarding the Company's operational performance and to enhance investors' overall understanding of such financial performance. In particular, the use of tangible book value per share and tangible common equity to tangible assets is prevalent among banking regulators, investors and analysts. The numerator for the core efficiency ratio is calculated by subtracting acquisition costs and intangible asset amortization from noninterest expense. Tangible assets and tangible common shareholders' equity are calculated by excluding intangible assets from assets and shareholders' equity, respectively. For these financial measures, our intangible assets consist of goodwill and core deposit intangible. Tangible book value per share is calculated by dividing tangible common shareholders' equity by the number of common shares outstanding. We believe that this measure is consistent with the capital treatment by our bank regulatory agencies, which exclude intangible assets from the calculation of risk-based capital ratios and present this measure to facilitate the comparison of the quality and composition of our capital over time and in comparison, to our competitors. Non-GAAP financial measures have inherent limitations, are not required to be uniformly applied, and are not audited. Further, the non-GAAP financial measure of tangible book value per share should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for book value per share or total shareholders' equity determined in accordance with GAAP, and may not be comparable to a similarly titled measure reported by other companies. Reconciliation of the GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures are presented below.     Contacts: Peter J. Johnson, CEO(406) 457-4006 Laura F. Clark, President(406) 457-4007 Balance Sheet                 (Dollars in thousands, except per share data)     (Unaudited)               March 31, December 31, March 31,               2022 2021 2021                       Assets:                   Cash and due from banks       $ 17,516   $ 10,938   $ 17,199       Interest bearing deposits in banks       62,697     43,669     87,165       Federal funds sold           14,889     6,827     6,859         Total cash and cash equivalents     95,102     61,434     111,223       Securities available-for-sale         264,635     271,262     180,276       Federal Home Loan Bank ("FHLB") stock       1,723     1,702     1,977       Federal Reserve Bank ("FRB") stock       2,974     2,974     2,974       Mortgage loans held-for-sale, at fair value       22,295     25,819     60,609       Loans:                   Real estate loans:                 Residential 1-4 family         99,242     101,180     100,948       Residential 1-4 family construction       40,968     45,635     35,558       Commercial real estate         432,976     410,568     329,772       Commercial construction and development     105,754     92,403     66,718       Farmland           60,363     67,005     67,592       Other loans:                   Home equity           53,828     51,748     53,270       Consumer           18,834     18,455     19,424       Commercial           98,471     101,535     108,956       Agricultural           49,836     46,335     49,642       Unearned loan fees         (1,591 )   (1,725 )   (2,541 )       Total loans         958,681     933,139     829,339       Allowance for loan losses         (12,700 )   (12,500 )   (11,900 )       Net loans         945,981     920,639     817,439       Accrued interest and dividends receivable       5,750     5,751     5,451       Mortgage servicing rights, net         14,288     13,693     11,320       Premises and equipment, net         69,536     67,266     61,971       Cash surrender value of life insurance, net       36,681     36,474     27,911       Goodwill           20,798     20,798     20,798       Core deposit intangible, net         1,660     1,780     2,202       Deferred tax asset, net         3,776     -     154       Other assets           6,854     6,334     7,116         Total assets       $ 1,492,053   $ 1,435,926   $ 1,311,421                         Liabilities:                   Deposit accounts:                   Noninterest bearing         371,818     368,846     331,589       Interest bearing           898,758     853,703     761,815         Total deposits       1,270,576     1,222,549     1,093,404       Accrued expenses and other liabilities      .....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaApr 27th, 2022

Fastenal Stock is Ready to Sprint Higher

Industrial and construction supplies wholesaler Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) stock has recently sold off on strong fiscal Q1 2022 earnings. The Company has experienced double-digit daily growth in each of its three divisions: Fasteners, Safety Products, and Other products which are composed of eight smaller product segments. The housing and construction boom has been a powerful tailwind […] Industrial and construction supplies wholesaler Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) stock has recently sold off on strong fiscal Q1 2022 earnings. The Company has experienced double-digit daily growth in each of its three divisions: Fasteners, Safety Products, and Other products which are composed of eight smaller product segments. The housing and construction boom has been a powerful tailwind as evidenced by the unit growth in sales for fiscal Q1 2022. Improved weather conditions from a year ago also helped to boost daily sales by 18.4%. The Company raised prices to mitigate the effects of inflation on its products, fasteners, and transportation services. Spike in fuel prices accelerated its impact. The Company says that while supply chains remain tight, the conditions have stabilized. In addition to international growth hitting a $100 million milestone, e-commerce also hit a milestone generating north of $100 million in the month of March 2022, up 53%. Growth continues to ramp up despite shares falling. Prudent investors can look for opportunistic pullbacks in shares of Fastenal. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Q1 Fiscal 2022 Earnings Release On April 13, 2022, Fastenal released its fiscal first-quarter 2022 results for the quarter ending March 2022. The Company reported an adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) profit of $0.47 excluding non-recurring items beating consensus analyst estimates of $0.45, by $0.02. Revenues grew by 20.3% year-over-year (YOY) to $1.7 billion beating analyst estimates for $1.69 billion. This was driven by higher unit sales by manufacturing and construction customers and an additional selling day for the quarter. The improved weather from the prior year also helped to improve daily sales by 18.4% in the quarter. Fastener daily sales rose 24.6% making up $34.3% of its net sales. Safety product daily sales rose 15.3% representing 21% of net sales. Other products accounted for 44.7% of net sales in fiscal Q1 2022. Conference Call Takeaways CEO Dan Florness presented insights into the Company's performance in a conversational manner. He noted how nice it is to recover from the 2008 to 2009 real estate meltdown and 2011-2012 final meltdown periods. The pandemic has caused them to implement strategies to improve efficiency which paid off as the context has made it challenging to add labor and energy into the organization. However, it hasn’t dented sales since the branch consolidation process was started 6 to 8 years ago. He says that supply chains have stabilized. The Company is seeing upticks in applications as supply chains improve and labor returns to the workforce. Fastenal exceeded $100 million in international sales for the first time and the Company expects to return to normalcy with the restart of its in-person customer expo selling event and in-person annual meeting after two years. FMI Technology has improved from signing 74-a-day a year ago to 83-a-day in this quarter. FMI technology accounts for 35.5% of total sales, up from 28.7% the prior year. E-commerce grew 55.6% hitting a milestone of cracking $100 million for the first time ever in March 2022. He concluded, Finally if you roll up our FMI Technology in our e-commerce, we talk about our digital footprint. We hit 47% of sales in the quarter, 39.1% a year ago, 34.9% two years ago. Our goal is to hit 55% of sales at some point later in the year. And we still believe that long term, that has the potential to be 85% of sales, and we're gearing our supply chain and have been gearing our supply chains to support that kind of business in the future.” FAST Opportunistic Pullback Levels Using the rifle charts on the weekly and daily time frames provides a precise view of the landscape for FAST stock. The weekly rifle chart peaked near the $60.77 Fibonacci (fib) level. Shares sold off back towards the overlapping weekly 15-period moving average (MA) and weekly 200-period MA at $55.85. The weekly uptrend stalled as the 5-period MA slowed at $57.76. The weekly upper Bollinger Bands (BBs) $67.77 and lower BBs at $47.36. The weekly market structure low (MSL) buy triggered the breakout through $54.21. The daily rifle chart breakdown has a falling 5-period MA at $57.67 and 15-period MA starting to fall at $58.67 as shares fall under the daily 200-period MA at $56.49 towards the daily lower BBs at $55.63 and daily 50-period MA at $55.29. The daily stochastic is falling on the stochastic mini inverse pup through the 30-band. Prudent investors can look for opportunistic pullback levels at the $56.30 fib/daily 50-period MA, $54.21 weekly MSL trigger, $52.58, $51.47 fib, $49.79 fib, $48.11 fib, $47.27 fib, and the $45.71 fib level.    Should you invest $1,000 in Fastenal right now? Before you consider Fastenal, you'll want to hear this. MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Fastenal wasn't on the list. While Fastenal currently has a "Hold" rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys. Article by Jea Yu, MarketBeat Updated on Apr 19, 2022, 5:45 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkApr 20th, 2022

Power Broker Strategies: Real Estate Leaders Share Insights for the Year Ahead

Coming off the red-hot real estate market of 2021, Power Brokers are regrouping and preparing for what lies ahead, unpredictable as that may be. Their outlook and their approach are grounded in market realities and the proven methods that have carried their firms through many a challenge. Here, Power Brokers provide insights on the biggest […] The post Power Broker Strategies: Real Estate Leaders Share Insights for the Year Ahead appeared first on RISMedia. Coming off the red-hot real estate market of 2021, Power Brokers are regrouping and preparing for what lies ahead, unpredictable as that may be. Their outlook and their approach are grounded in market realities and the proven methods that have carried their firms through many a challenge. Here, Power Brokers provide insights on the biggest issues at hand—from inventory to inflation—and the strategies they’re deploying to ensure another successful year in 2022…no matter how the next chapter unfolds. Participants: Carol Bulman, CEO & Chairman of the Board, Jack Conway Dan Forsman, President & CEO, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Georgia Properties Joe Gazzo, Regional VP and Broker, Coldwell Banker Schmidt Realty Rick Haase, President, United Real Estate Felicia Hengle, President of Ohio Operations, Coldwell Banker Schmidt Realty Dan Kruse, CEO/Owner, CENTURY 21 Affiliated Teresa Overcash, Broker/Owner, Realty ONE Group Results Mike Prodehl, CEO, Coldwell Banker Real Estate Group Jessica Smith, Executive Vice President, Briggs Freeman Sotheby’s International Realty Todd Sumney, Chief Industry Officer, HomeSmart International How have the effects of 2021 impacted business in 2022? Mike Prodehl: The events of 2021 will continue to have a moderate impact on our market. The most pressing concern continues to be the scarcity of inventory with no end in sight. Rising rates may limit the buyer pool somewhat, but hopefully they will also get some people who have postponed plans off the fence. Inflation and other economic concerns may rattle consumer confidence, but the cost to rent will continue to compel people into homeownership. The continued pandemic has had much less impact on our markets than the inventory crisis. Jessica Smith: The continued pandemic has limited our large group gatherings, but it has not limited our agents from doing their job or reaching new heights. Texas continues to draw new corporations and transferees, keeping the housing demand strong. Since a large percentage of buyers are from out of state, the inventory has and will be our biggest challenge this year. Felicia Hengle: I’ve always been one to see the glass as half-full, maintaining a positive outlook as much as possible. Somehow through the pandemic, which we have all had to face in not only our personal lives but our business as well, I still believe that there is that silver lining. In the meantime, we’re all in it together, and there will always be enough business to go around. Competition and trying times are not necessarily a bad thing, but what’s most important is that we stay true to ourselves and never lose sight of why we got into the business in the first place. It’s all about relationships. How are you planning for the possible effects of inflation and rising interest rates on the housing market? Dan Kruse: It’s clear that we’re in a rising rate environment. The big question is how high will rates get due to the pressures of inflation? As a company, we are talking about this new environment and preparing our agents for the consumer discussion. With that said, we believe that even in a rising rate environment, buyer demand will continue to be strong, and we won’t see a major disruption in our industry over the short-term. Rick Haase: We have a very robust process for developing our annual operating plan—which, of course, takes a serious and exhaustive look at sales and financial forecasting. We are fortunate to have industry and non-industry veterans alike, each having seen these business cycles before. The causes for the cycles vary widely, but the core processes of strong fiscal management are well in place, and have been for some time. Everyone speaks of expense controls, and while we obviously know how to manage that area, we are excited to continue implementing our marketshare growth strategies. Dan Forsman: We are much more resilient than we once were after two years of pandemic and uncertainty. We now have a contingency plan that’s been on the shelf in the event that sales stall or a negative situation occurs. We’ve always done a good job of controlling our costs, and we’re leaning heavily into what most consumers want, which is one-stop shopping. We’re doing everything we can to support core services. Carol Bulman: We are focused on educating our agents on what’s happening in the market at all times, and with the support of our mortgage company, Conway Financial Services, we provide real-time information and tools for our agents to be prepared for any market. As always, we will face this new challenge by arming our agents with data and strategies to speak directly to their clients and show them what is really happening in the market and how it affects them. This will cause a shift in buyer demand and seller opportunity, but it will bring about a more normal balance, which might be healthy for both agents and clients alike. Felicia Hengle: I’ve always believed that there are two aspects of our business that everyone should be able to articulate. First is the ability to gain credibility in all that we do, and secondly, the ability to create urgency. Inflation and rising interest rates, especially rising interest rates, give us that ability to create urgency. Those buyers and sellers who are on the fence as to whether they should make the move or not can now see the writing on the wall…now may be that time. Unfortunately, those who sit on the side of caution may elect to stay put and ride things out. What strategies have you put in place to counter the inventory shortage? Rick Haase: The question at a macro level is not, “Will there be enough inventory?” There will be plenty of inventory, although at lower levels for sure. The proper question for us is, “How will we make sure that our brokers and agents are prepared to gain share of the market?” So we have been driving more marketing, technology and education services, including accelerating the advancement of our cloud-based productivity platform. In transitioning markets, it becomes even more important to have efficient and effective systems in place. We are fortunate that these elements have resided in our business model and brokerage network since inception. Todd Sumney: The inventory shortage is really an “active inventory shortage.” As soon as a home hits the market, it goes under contract or inactive quickly; therefore, the usual “active inventory” is low. The overall transactions for the year are still projected to be well over 5 million units. The trick is to be one of the agents involved in those transactions, so we launched some extensive agent training specifically around creating inventory and winning listings—and the results were astounding. We taught agents many different ways to create inventory through mini comparative market analyses, neighborhood reports, neighborhood farming, video marketing, texting, social media and more. Teresa Overcash: While inventory is low, we have partnered with an in-house builder who can create new homes for our buyers caught in bidding wars. We are also opening up a luxury division this year and encouraging our investors to purchase multifamily/rental properties so that we have many great options for frustrated buyers who want to buy but are tired of the bidding wars. We also make sure to educate the buyer that even though prices are higher than average, the interest rates more than make up for the price increase over a 30-year mortgage loan. Joe Gazzo: These truly are unprecedented times we are experiencing, and while we all may be experiencing the same storm, we are not all in the same boat. Those that continue to work their databases are the ones who will have the edge and find themselves with the ability to remain successful. We have platforms designed for such activities, along with other tools our agents can utilize to keep them up front and engaged during these challenging times. We actively focus on farming, builders, mining for listings and going back to basics with “just solds” and social media messaging for sellers who want to know what their home may be valued at in today’s market. Carol Bulman: As a firm, we believe this is a business of action. Through the teachings of Ninja Selling, we keep daily activities for success front and center for our agents. This week (at press time), we are providing a 30-minute workshop each day on ways to revisit members of our sphere. In addition, we provide consistent training on how to make buyers’ offers most attractive and win more on that side. Dan Kruse: This has been an ongoing issue in our industry for years now. I’m not sure there’s a magic bullet to this challenge, however, we’re coaching our agents around the real estate basics: prospecting, winning listing appointments and offering a value package. Companies like Compass and eXp are putting up big numbers this year. Are ‘disruptor’ firms a concern for you—and, if so, how are you creating a competitive advantage? Felicia Hengle: I’m not quite sure if the word is “concerned,” but we always try to stay on top of not only companies entering our market, but the latest trends as well. Cloud brokerages, such as eXp, benefited to a certain degree from the pandemic because of agents who no longer felt the need to go to the office. Erring on the side of caution, they chose to work remotely. Our contention, while we continue to monitor the real estate landscape, is to continue to stay focused on what has made us successful: pouring into our agents, giving them the support they need to be successful and the tools to aid both their buyers and sellers. We continue to focus on our differentiators so that the agents know they are a part of a company that is on the cutting edge and one that can help them build a viable, sustainable business. Dan Kruse: We’ve seen a number of “disruptors” or new models come into the real estate space over the last few years; this is not uncommon in a growing marketplace. Although some of these companies have some new structures, such as private equity backing or being publicly traded, the concept of these structures is not that different from others. We’re an industry where, at the heart, we service clients in making the best possible real estate decisions. That concept has not changed, so I would say our competitive advantage continues to be our outstanding customer service, systems and coaching, and years of experience. Carol Bulman: In our market, we are the disruptor with a new brand and bringing a new HQ building with state-of-the-art technology online. No one in the area has invested in these tools locally, and we’re facing a huge spotlight right now as we lead in these areas. I’m very proud of the work my team has done to make this all possible. Rick Haase: I think in 2020 we were the fastest-growing real estate firm in the nation, outperforming the market gains by a long margin. When the industry numbers are in for 2021, I believe our growth rate will actually increase year-over-year. So in short, we are the disruptor, and we believe passionately that our growth is actually in the most sustainable model. We’re not building on fleeting advantages like others, but on rock-solid foundational business principles. We’re profitable, our agents are winning more business and our brokerages are gaining agents as well; we’re scaling, and our enterprise value is growing exponentially, not declining.   How have you changed up your approach to recruiting and retention in the midst of trying times for real estate agents? Dan Forsman: The first “R” in recruiting is retention. We’ve stayed very focused on meeting the needs of agents, talking to our top agents and growing our middle tier. Because of that, I think we’ve been most fortunate in the “turnover wars.” I think culture wins, and we’ve got a strong culture of giving, growing and going to the next level in our company. It doesn’t mean eXp and Compass aren’t attracting people, they just don’t seem to be keeping people. I’m talking to more agents about coming back from Compass than ever before. There’s always that threat, but we’re focused on growing what we’ve got, retaining what we have and attracting new talent to the company. Dan Kruse: Building our organization around outstanding real estate professionals has always been one of the keys to our success. We continue our recruiting strategy around building great professionals and coaching them on how to succeed in a changing real estate environment. I think the biggest challenge is helping our newer agents find success early in their career, which can be challenging in a competitive market with low inventory. We’re proud of the number of successful first- and second-year agents we’ve seen grow this past year. Joe Gazzo: From a retention standpoint, staying connected with our agents is paramount, especially during the times we’ve all experienced over the past few years. With offices opening up again, experiencing a bit of normalcy is a welcome thing to say the least, and having such engagement stands only as a reminder as to one of the reasons they joined our company. We are concentrating on live training and events to foster collaboration and synergy to remind our agents of the culture that attracted them to us in the first place. Felicia Hengle: From a recruiting standpoint, it boils down to a number of things, and not necessarily strictly the commissions. It’s articulating our value proposition, stressing our core values and giving them the support they need to be successful while fulfilling what’s most important to them. Our management team offers years of experience, and what comes with such experience is the ability to help weather the storm during such trying times. We also rely on our agents to be our raving fans and help us to tell our story while out in the marketplace. Rick Haase: We are simply re-doubling our efforts to get our story out. As we demonstrate the incredible opportunity within our systems to help agents win business and brokerages to manage their operations, it is reaping great rewards. We keep as a guiding principle that our efforts are all about increasing our agents’ and brokers’ financial trajectory. Recruiting with a discounted stock purchase program or paying agents in shares to help recruit when those shares lose 50%, 60%, even 75% of their value isn’t much of a net-worth growth plan, and agents are figuring that out pretty quickly. We are investing even more in training, education and development, communications, broker outreach, agent marketing and technology services and lead generation in the coming year with great efficiency. Maria Patterson is RISMedia’s executive editor. Email her your real estate news ideas to The post Power Broker Strategies: Real Estate Leaders Share Insights for the Year Ahead appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaApr 15th, 2022

Florida Republicans accepted donations from ex-congressman who sent lewd messages to underage boys even as party"s right wing crusades against "grooming"

Republican Rep. Mark Foley resigned from Congress in 2006 but continues to make donations from unused campaign funds. The Republican Party of Palm Beach County has received $118,250 from Friends of Mark Foley and held its recent fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago.Lynne Sladky/AP Photo Republicans are calling Democrats "groomers" for supporting school instruction on sexual orientation. But ex-Rep. Mark Foley, who sent sexually explicit messages to underage pages, donated big money to Florida Republicans. Some returned the cash, but others have accepted it. Prominent Republicans have slammed critics of Florida's new sex education bill that critics call "Don't Say Gay" as "groomers" and "pedophiles."But some Florida Republicans are meanwhile accepting financial contributions from the old campaign committee of an ex-congressman who sent sexually explicit messages to underage boys working as congressional pages.Former Republican Rep. Mark Foley, who resigned his West Palm Beach district seat over the 2006 messaging scandal, has made $118,250 in donations and sponsorship to the Republican Party of Palm Beach County since 2010 through his ex-campaign committee Friends of Mark Foley for Congress. Foley's most recent donation to the Republican Party of Palm Beach County came in January, when his campaign committee gave $15,000, according to an Insider analysis of filings from the Federal Elections Commission. Palm Beach County encompasses Mar-a-Lago, the private luxury club former President Donald Trump calls home. Mar-a-Lago is also where the county Republicans held their annual Lincoln Day fundraiser in March.A representative who answered the phone for the Republican Party of Palm Beach County said it was not the group's policy to talk to the media and "there is no comment." The organization's chair, Michael Barnett, did not respond to emailed questions and did not return a phone call. The Republican Party of Palm Beach County appears to have previously welcomed Foley into its fold, honoring him in 2019 with a service award at its Lobsterfest dinner in Boca Raton, the Florida Sun Sentinel reported. In remarks at the event, Trump confidant Roger Stone called Foley a "great American patriot" and "a man who doesn't need to apologize because let he who is without sin cast the first stone." Earlier this week, the Republican Party of Palm Beach County implored its Facebook  followers to "Reclaim our School Board" on issues from "woke activism" to "parental rights." The terms are nebulous, but tend to tap into simmering frustrations on the right that say schools have failed to seek permission from parents when they teach about race relations, sexual orientation, and gender identity. Republican Party of Palm Beach County/FacebookEducation issues have become a blazing campaign subject in Florida ever since Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a bill into law limiting instructions about sexual orientation and gender in schools, particularly among students in kindergarten through at least third grade.Critics, who say the language is too vague, have called it the "Don't Say Gay" law while some of its defenders in the Republican Party and conservative media have countered that it should be called the "Anti-Grooming Bill." Foley was not charged with a crime and said he never had sexual contact with the underage pages, who worked in the US Capitol aiding lawmakers and learning about the legislative process.Foley did not respond to Insider's inquiry.Some lawmakers didn't cash the checkFlorida House members who have received campaign donations from Foley's committee since 2016 include Republicans Mike Caruso, who received $2,000, and Rick Roth, who received $5,000, but neither responded to Insider's questions about the donations.Foley also donated $4,130 to the Palm Beach Republican Club, which did not respond to Insider's inquiries. When Foley earlier this year donated $25,000 to Palm Beach State College to help launch a scholarship in his name for police academy recruits, the college publicly lauded it. But not every political organization or candidate who received a check accepted it. Rusty Roberts, a longtime US House aide now running for Congress himself, received a $1,000 donation in March but returned it. "Mr Foley's check was part of a larger group of checks deposited by the campaign administrative staff," Jim Huckeba, Roberts' treasurer, told Insider. "When the candidate learned of the contribution in March, he instructed me to return the contribution to Mr. Foley with his appreciation." Back in 2016, Rep. Brian Mast, a Republican of Florida, received $2,000 from Foley's campaign committee but publicized that he never cashed the check. His campaign spokesman, Brad Stewart, confirmed the campaign never cashed the check and did not want nor accept Foley's donations. Mast has been vocal about supporting Florida's school legislation, imploring critics on Twitter to "stop trying to force your views on sexuality onto our children!"Former Congressman Mark Foley has been donating money to charity and political groups through his ex-campaign committee, Friends of Mike Foley.Theo Wargo/WireImage'Zombie campaign'Soon after resigning from Congress, Foley went to rehab for alcohol misuse and emotional issues. His lawyer disclosed that the former congressman had been molested by a Catholic clergyman when he was a teenager, and that Foley was gay — exposing what had already been an open secret on Capitol Hill and in Florida politics. Foley is now a lobbyist. As of the first three months of this year — meaning 16 years after leaving office — the Foley campaign committee still had $426,289.38 in cash on hand, filings show. Foley left Congress with a seven-figure campaign cash reserve. His old campaign committee remains technically active — a situation, seen among many former members of Congress, that good-government organizations have dubbed "zombie campaigns." Legally, Foley's campaign committee can continue to make political and charitable donations and could conceivably disgorge the remaining cash to the US Treasury's general fund. But Foley isn't permitted to spend the money on himself.  A screenshot of Friends of Mark Foley for Congress' most recent campaign committee spending report covering the first three months of 2022.Federal Election CommissionIn a 2020 letter to the FEC, Foley's treasurer, Donna Foley Winterson, said Foley didn't intend to run for office again and planned to terminate the account after filing his 2022 tax returns, adding that "a balance deemed adequate to fulfill our 2022 income tax liability will be retained."Over the years, Foley has slowly but steadily donated his committee's surplus funds to numerous other causes, from the Museum of the Bible in Washington, DC, to food banks and the gay chorus Voices of Pride in Palm Beach. Foley told the Sun Sentinel in 2019 that he at times missed being in public service. "This was my life for so many years," he said. "And you know it's hard to be in a room with people that were your huge supporters and you let them down. So, there's a bit of, you know, sadness."Former Congressman Mark Foley (red shirt middle of frame) sits in the audience as Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump looks back at the crowd during his campaign event at the BB&T Center on August 10, 2016 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.Joe Raedle/Getty Images'Grooming' emerges as GOP attack While the Republican Party of Palm Beach County appears open to having Foley participate in conservative politics, other factions of the party are weaponizing terms such as "groomer" and "pedophile" following the dispute over Florida's Parental Rights in Education Act — the bill critics call "Don't Say Gay." DeSantis' allies in his office, in conservative politics, and in media outlets such as Fox News have accused opponents of the law of supporting "grooming" children. The term "grooming" typically refers to pedophiles who try to gain the trust of their underage victims so they'll accept sexual assault without telling an adult. The pro-Republican Political Action Committee American Principles Project used the term "groomed" in a recent fundraising email and several opinion pieces in conservative news outlets have called the legislation the "Anti-Grooming Bill."Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican of Georgia, said she planned to introduce a national version in Congress. This week on Conservative America's Voice she called Democrats "the party of pedophiles." While Republicans are doubling down on the legislation, insisting that parents should be informed about their children's schooling and any questions they might have about their gender identity and sexuality, Democrats and LGBTQ+ rights organizations say they worry about outing students to families who aren't accepting or might even be violent.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytApr 9th, 2022

US Approves $95 Million Patriot Missile Systems Boost For Taiwan

US Approves $95 Million Patriot Missile Systems Boost For Taiwan At a moment the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told Congressional leaders Tuesday that "significant international conflict between great powers" is now "increasing, not decreasing" - the US has announced approval of the sale of up to $95 million in new training and equipment for Taiwan. Crucially and quite provocatively from Beijing's perspective, this new sale is focused on supporting Taiwan's Patriot missile defense system, seen as key to defending the island in the event of an invasion. A US-made Patriot III missile being launched during an annual military drill in Taiwan, via Defense Ministry/AFP The Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency confirmed in a statement, "The proposed sale will help to sustain (Taiwan's) missile density and ensure readiness for air operations." The statement called the items important as a "deterrent to regional threats and to strengthen homeland defense," and outlined it will include training, planning, fielding, deployment, operation, maintenance, and sustainment of the Patriot system, associated equipment, and logistics support elements, as well as ground support equipment and spare parts, according to the DSCA statement. Taiwan's foreign ministry thanked the Biden administration and welcomed the deal, which marks the third such approved arms package of the Biden administration. Taipei emphasized it's needed to defend against China's "continuing military expansion and provocation."   "In the face of China's continuing military expansion and provocation, Taiwan must fully demonstrate its strong determination to defend itself," the foreign ministry said. "Our government will continue to strengthen our self-defense and asymmetric combat capabilities." Meanwhile, one top US Navy commander says China is watching the Russia-Ukraine war closely, with an eye on Taiwan: As the Russia-Ukraine war continues, a senior US commander stated that Washington must remain vigilant on the Taiwan issue as China is increasing its capabilities and making adjustments to its plans to forcefully unite the island nation. U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Samuel J Paparo said, "China is undoubtedly watching what’s happened in Ukraine, taking notes, and learning from it." “And there will be learning and there will be adjustments to the extent that they’re able to learn from it. And they will improve their capabilities based on what they learn at this time," he told a gathering of Washington-based journalists from Indo-Pacific countries. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/06/2022 - 18:40.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeApr 6th, 2022

Key Events This Week: First Post-War PMIs And Deluge Of Fed Speakers

Key Events This Week: First Post-War PMIs And Deluge Of Fed Speakers It's a relatively quieter week compared to the last week's central bank/quad-witching emotional rollercoaster (if that is possible at a time when the Second Cold War has broken out) and one of the key events this week according to DB's Jim Reid will be Thursday’s March flash PMIs from around the world where we’ll see the first impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict on activity, especially in Europe. Outside of that, UK CPI data on Wednesday is going to be very interesting after the BoE warned on both growth and inflation last week in their surprisingly dovish hike. See our UK economist’s review here. There is also the Spring UK (Budget) Statement on Wednesday (preview here) where all things fiscal will be in focus. Wednesday's new home sales, Friday's pending home sales and Thursday's durable goods are the main economic releases in the US.  The week's key evon events are summarized in the table below: There's also plenty of Fed speak to sharpen up the message from last week's FOMC but don't expect a chorus line singing from the same song sheet. The dot plot showed the range of YE '22 Fed funds rates, as forecast by the committee, was a historically wide 1.4% to 3.1%. Boston (non-voter hawk) and Chair Powell himself are up today with the latter also on the docket on Wednesday. Williams (dove) will be on a panel tomorrow but also gives a speech on Friday. Daly (non-voter / dove) speaks tomorrow, Wednesday and Friday. Mester (voter / hawk) speaks tomorrow. Bullard (voter / hawk) is up on Wednesday and remember he was the lone 50bps dissenter last week. Kashkari (non-voter / dove), Governor Waller (hawk) and Chicago President Evans (non-voter / dove) speak on Thursday. Barkin (non-voter / hawk) concludes the Fed's business for the week on Friday. Here is a day-by-day calendar of events, courtesy of Deutsche Bank Monday March 21 Data: Germany PPI Central banks: PBoC announces 1 and 5-year loan prime rates, ECB's Lagarde, Nagel, Makhlouf speak, Fed’s Powell and Bostic speak Earnings: Nike, Pinduoduo Tuesday March 22 Data: Eurozone construction output, US Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Canada industrial product price Central banks: ECB's Lagarde, Guindos, Villeroy, Lane and Panetta speak, BoE's Cunliffe speaks, Fed’s Williams, Daly and Mester speak Earnings: Carnival, Adobe, Xiaomi, Foxconn Wednesday March 23 Data: UK CPI, RPI, house price index, Eurozone consumer confidence, US new home sales Central banks: BoJ minutes of January meeting, BoE Governor Bailey speaks, ECB's Lagarde, Nagel speak, Fed’s Powell, Daly, Bullard speak Earnings: Tencent, Cintas, China Mobile, General Mills Other: UK Chancellor's budget statement Thursday March 24 Data: Japan, France, Germany, Eurozone, UK, US PMIs, Japan PPI services, US initial jobless claims, durable goods orders Central banks: ECB publishes economic bulletin, ECB's Elderson speaks, BoE's Mann speaks, Fed’s Bullard, Bostic, Kashkari, Waller speak Earnings: Daimler Other: BoE financial policy committee report Friday March 25 Data: UK GfK consumer confidence, retail sales, Germany IFO business climate, Italy consumer confidence index, manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment, Eurozone M3 Central Banks: Fed’s Daly, Waller, Williams and Barkin speak *** Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the durable goods report on Thursday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including remarks by Chair Powell on Monday and Wednesday, and remarks by New York Fed President Williams on Tuesday and Friday. Monday, March 21 There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 08:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will give a speech at the annual National Association for Business Economics economic policy conference. Text and audience and media Q&A are expected. In his last public appearance, on March 1st, President Bostic argued that the Fed “[does] not need to have [its] policy in a maximally accommodative stance,” and noted that, “for the rest of 2022, we will be hard pressed to get inflation below 3%.” In earlier remarks, President Bostic noted that “to the extent we start to see [monthly sequential inflation] trend down, then I will be comfortable pretty much with a 25 basis-point move. If that continues to persist at elevated levels, or even moves in the other direction, then I am really going to have to look at a 50-basis-point move for March.” Since then, the FOMC hiked by 25bp for the first time since the pandemic began at last week’s March meeting, and the March Summary of Economic Projections delivered a hawkish message by showing a median of seven hikes for 2022 and an above-neutral terminal rate of 2.75%. 12:00 PM Fed Chair Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech at the annual NABE economic policy conference. Text and moderated Q&A are expected. Following last week’s FOMC meeting, Chair Powell reinforced the Committee’s hawkish tone by stressing that hiking by 50bp was “certainly a possibility,” that the FOMC will be “attentive to the risks of further upward pressure on inflation and inflation expectations,” and that he sees the risk of recession as “not particularly elevated.” We continue to expect the Fed to hike seven times in 2022. Chair Powell also said that the FOMC could finalize and implement its plan for balance-sheet reduction “as soon as our next meeting in May.” We see this as a strong hint and now expect the FOMC to announce the start of balance sheet reduction in May (vs. June previously). Tuesday, March 22 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus +2, last +1) 10:35 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will take part in a virtual panel discussion hosted by the Bank for International Settlements. Moderated Q&A is expected. In his last public appearance, on March 3rd, President Williams noted that “it’s clear with inflation so high that we need to get monetary policy away from where we are today,” and that the FOMC has “the ability to adjust interest rates higher” if inflation is more persistent than expected. In earlier remarks, on February 18th, President Williams stated that he did not “see any compelling argument to take a big step at the beginning [of the hiking cycle].” 02:00 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will take part in a virtual panel discussion hosted by the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. On February 23rd President Daly argued that “inflation is well above our price stability goal and the lesson from the 1970s is we need to demonstrate to the American people that we’re committed to having that not be a perpetuating spiral,” but cautioned that while the FOMC has to “get policy in line … [it] can’t be impatient about doing it all today.” On February 24th, President Daly said that the FOMC needs to “ensure that we don’t make adjustments to the balance sheet at each and every meeting, because we just don’t know enough about it to make it a surgical tool.” 05:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will discuss the economy and monetary policy at an event hosted by John Carroll University in Ohio. Text and audience Q&A are expected. In her last public appearance, on March 3rd, President Mester stated that “starting with [a] 25[bp hike] followed by further increases in coming months I think puts us in a good position,” but signaled she was open to a faster hiking pace, noting that “if by the middle of the year … we don’t see inflation moving back down, that would be a signal to me that we have to remove accommodation at a stronger pace, at a faster pace, because inflation isn’t moving down as we expected.” President Mester also indicated that “it could very well be that interest rates will have to move up above that long-run level.” Wednesday, March 23 08:00 AM Fed Chair Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will take part in a panel discussion on challenges for central banks in a digital world hosted by the Bank for International Settlements. Moderated Q&A is expected. 10:00 AM New home sales, February (GS -1.0%, consensus +1.3%, last -4.5%): We estimate that new home sales declined 1.0% in February, following a 4.5% decline in January. 11:45 AM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will take part in a moderated discussion at the Bloomberg Equality Summit in New York. 03:00 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will take part in a moderated discussion on the economic outlook at an event hosted by the Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America. Audience Q&A is expected. President Bullard dissented from the FOMC’s decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25bp to 0.25%-0.50% in March, arguing that “raising the target range to 0.50% to 0.75% and implementing a plan for reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet would have been more appropriate actions.” President Bullard also argued that the FOMC should “try to achieve a level of the policy rate above 3% this year.” 09:05 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will take part in a moderated discussion on the economic outlook at a virtual conference in Hong Kong. Thursday, March 24 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 19 (GS 220k, consensus 211k, last 214k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 12 (consensus 1,400k, last 1,419k): We estimate initial jobless claims edged up to 220k in the week ended March 19. 08:30 AM Current account balance, Q4 (consensus -$218.0bn, last -$214.8bn) 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, February preliminary (GS -0.5%, consensus -0.6%, last +1.6%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, February preliminary (GS +1.2%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%); Core capital goods orders, February preliminary (GS +1.2%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.0%); Core capital goods shipments, February preliminary (GS +1.0%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.9%): We estimate durable goods orders pulled back 0.5% in the preliminary February report, reflecting fewer commercial aircraft orders. However, we also expect strong gains in core capital goods orders (+1.2%) and core capital goods shipments (+1.0%), reflecting strong goods demand, higher prices, and the 2.0% rebound in industrial production of business equipment. We are not assuming a significant drag from the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, as Russia accounts for only 0.4% of goods exports and 0.6% of machinery and computer exports. 08:30 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak at the Midwest Economic Outlook Summit, hosted by the Fargo-Moorhead Chamber of Commerce. Audience Q&A is expected. In an essay published on Friday, President Kashkari noted that “if … high inflation … [proves] transitory …, then I believe the FOMC will need to remove accommodation and get modestly above neutral [of 2%] while the inflationary dynamics unwind. However, if … the economy is in a high-pressure, high-inflation equilibrium, then the FOMC will need to act more aggressively and bring policy to a contractionary stance in order to move the economy back to an equilibrium consistent with our 2 percent inflation target.” President Kashkari also noted that high levels of household income and large state-government budget surpluses suggested that “inflation may be sustained and in fact might not be transitory.” In a public appearance later on Friday, President Kashkari stated that he was “in favor of beginning to shrink the balance sheet soon, I mean as early as the next meeting,” and suggested “a much faster pace [of balance-sheet reduction],” noting that “if I had to pick a number I’d say shrink the balance sheet at roughly double the pace that we did last time.” We expect the Fed will start the process of balance-sheet normalization in May at a pace of $100bn per month, which is double the last cycle’s pace. 09:10 AM Fed Governor President Waller (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will discuss the housing market at a virtual event hosted by Tel Aviv University and Rutgers University. Text and moderated Q&A are expected. In an interview on Friday, Governor Waller noted that “the data is screaming at us to go 50 [basis points] but the geopolitical events were telling you to go forward with caution, … so those two factors combined pushed me off of advocating for a 50 basis-point hike at this meeting and supporting the 25 [basis-point] hike.” Governor Waller stated that he favors “front-loading our rate hikes,” and that “the way to front-load it is to pull some rate hikes forward, which would imply 50 basis points at one or multiple meetings in the near future.” 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, March preliminary (consensus 56.5, last 57.3): S&P Global US services PMI, March preliminary (consensus 54.2, last 55.9) 09:50 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will discuss the outlook for the economy and monetary policy at an event hosted by the Detroit Regional Chamber. Text and media Q&A are expected. In an interview on March 4th, President Evans argued that the FOMC needs “to be moving towards a more neutral monetary policy certainly by the end of the year so that we’re within striking distance of taking a position that would deal more forcefully with inflation if that’s necessary. I don’t quite think that’s necessary, but I have to say we need to be positioned for that.” 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus +21, last +29) 11:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will take part in a virtual discussion hosted by Spelman College. Audience Q&A is expected. Friday, March 25 09:10 AM Fed Governor President Waller (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will discuss central bank digital currencies at a virtual event hosted by Rutgers University. Moderated Q&A is expected. 10:00 AM Pending home sales, February (GS -3.5%, consensus +1.0%, last -5.7%): We estimate that pending home sales decreased by 3.5% in February, following a 5.7% decrease in January. 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, March final (GS 59.4, consensus 59.7, last 59.7); We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index decreased by 0.3pt to 59.4 in the final March reading. 10:00 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will discuss monetary policy and financial stability during a virtual panel hosted by the Central Bank of Peru and the Bank for International Settlements. Text and moderated Q&A are expected. 11:30 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks:  Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will give a speech on inflation at an event hosted by The Citadel Director’s Institute in Charleston, South Carolina. President Barkin wrote on Friday that the FOMC has “moved at a 50-basis point clip in the past, and we certainly could do so again if we start to believe that is necessary to prevent inflation expectations from unanchoring,” but noted that “setting the right pace for rate increases is a balancing act — we normalize rates to contain inflation, but if we overcorrect, we can negatively impact employment, which is the other part of our dual mandate.” President Barkin stressed that “while [the FOMC] could move faster, [it is] already having more impact than you might think” through its effect on financial conditions. San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks (time to be announced): San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will deliver opening remarks at the San Francisco Fed's Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy conference. Source: Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs Tyler Durden Mon, 03/21/2022 - 09:54.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytMar 21st, 2022

A running list of every Marvel show and movie you can stream on Disney Plus — from "Iron Man" to "Moon Knight"

Disney Plus features a ton of Marvel movies and series. The service also has exclusive MCU shows like "Loki," "Hawkeye," and "Moon Knight." Prices are accurate at the time of publication.When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Alyssa Powell/Business Insider Disney Plus is the streaming home of the Marvel Cinematic Universe and Marvel TV shows. That includes new original series like "Hawkeye" and "Moon Knight." The service costs $8/month or $80/year, and there's also a bundle with Hulu and ESPN+ for $14/month. Disney Plus Monthly Subscription Service$7.99 FROM DISNEY+One of the biggest draws of Disney Plus is its massive collection of Marvel movies and TV shows, ranging from classic '90s cartoons to the latest entries in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU). The full lineup is included with a Disney Plus subscription for $8 a month or $80 a year.Along with more than 25 MCU films, Disney Plus is the home of new, exclusive Marvel shows. Five MCU original series are now available, including "WandaVision", "The Falcon and the Winter Soldier," "Loki," "What If...?.," and "Hawkeye."What Marvel movies and shows can I watch on Disney Plus?Disney Plus is home to nearly every Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) movie released so far. With that said, a few titles, like "Spider-Man: No Way Home," aren't included since they were produced by different studios.Beyond the MCU movie lineup, new original series focused on various Marvel characters are also available on Disney Plus. The next Marvel shows are "Moon Knight," premiering March 30, and "Ms. Marvel," premiering on June 8.What order should I watch the Marvel films in?Though different Marvel Studios movies take place at different points in the MCU's timeline, the best order to watch the movies in is the same order that they were originally released in theaters. The filmmakers designed the overarching storyline to be best viewed this way. A breakdown of the Marvel movie release timeline can be found below, along with a full rundown of every Marvel film and show available on Disney Plus:Marvel Cinematic Universe moviesIMDbBelow is a complete list of MCU movies in the order they were originally released. This is the order that we recommend watching the films in.Due to licensing agreements, four Marvel movies are not included with Disney Plus. We've denoted the missing titles in bold.All of the other movies listed below are available to stream right now on Disney Plus."Iron Man" (2008)"The Incredible Hulk" (2008) - not planned for Disney Plus"Iron Man 2" (2010) "Thor" (2011)"Captain America: The First Avenger" (2011)"The Avengers" (2012)"Iron Man 3" (2013)"Thor: The Dark World" (2013)"Captain America: The Winter Soldier" (2014)"Guardians of the Galaxy" (2014)"Avengers: Age of Ultron" (2015)"Ant-Man" (2015)"Captain America: Civil War" (2016)"Doctor Strange" (2016)"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2" (2017)"Spider-Man: Homecoming" (2017) - not planned for Disney Plus"Thor: Ragnarok" (2017)"Black Panther" (2018)"Avengers: Infinity War" (2018)"Ant-Man and the Wasp" (2018)"Captain Marvel" (2019)"Avengers: Endgame" (2019)"Spider-Man: Far from Home" (2019) - not planned for Disney Plus"Black Widow" (2021)"Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings" (2021)"Spider-Man: No Way Home" (2021) - not planned for Disney PlusMarvel TV shows from Netflix now streaming on Disney PlusMike Colter, Krysten Ritter, Charlie Cox, Rosario Dawson and Jessica Henwick in "The Defenders."ABC Signature / NetflixNetflix produced several TV shows starring Marvel superheroes between 2015 and 2019, including "Daredevil" and "Punisher."The collection of shows became available on Disney Plus in March 2022 and is now known as "The Defenders Saga," named after the miniseries that brings Daredevil, Luke Cage, Iron Fist, and Jessica Jones together for the first time.These shows were produced for a more mature audience than typical MCU series, so viewers should be prepared for more violence and sexual content than standard Marvel releases. Disney Plus added new parental controls to help subscribers block kids from accessing this content.These are the shows included in "The Defenders Saga" on Disney Plus:Daredevil (2015)"Jessica Jones" (2015)"Luke Cage" (2016)"Iron Fist" (2017)"Defenders" (2017)"Punisher" (2017)20th Century Fox Marvel moviesFoxIn addition to MCU movies, Disney Plus also includes a few Marvel movies from 20th Century Fox. Here are the Marvel movies from Fox that are available on Disney Plus in the US:"X-Men" (2000) "X2: X-Men United" (2003)"Fantastic Four" (2005)"X-Men: The Last Stand" (2006)"Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer" (2007)"X-Men Origins: Wolverine" (2009)"X-Men: First Class" (2011)"X-Men: Days of Future Past" (2014)"Fantastic Four" (2015)"X-Men: Apocalypse" (2016)"Dark Phoenix" (2019)Here's a full list of Marvel movies from 20th Century Fox that are currently missing from Disney Plus in the US:"Daredevil" (2003)"Elektra" (2005)"The Wolverine" (2013)"Deadpool" (2016)"Logan" (2017)"Deadpool 2" (2018)"The New Mutants" (2020)'Moon Knight' - March 30Oscar Isaac as Moon Knight in Marvel Studios "Moon Knight.""Moon Knight" / Disney Plus"Moon Knight" stars Oscar Isaac as cloaked avenger Mark Specter.The "Moon Knight" comic book story is more complex than most Marvel heroes, with the character's mental health and connection to reality frequently coming into question. The show hits Disney Plus on March 30.'Ms. Marvel' - June 8"Ms. Marvel" is a live-action show following the origin of Muslim superhero Kamala Khan, who first appeared in Marvel comics in 2013. Kamala is an Avengers super-fan and eventually finds herself struggling to control her own superpowers while balancing her teen life in Jersey City.Kamala also stars in the "Marvel's Avengers" game released in September 2020, and the animated movie "Marvel Rising: Secret Warriors" on Disney Plus.'WandaVision' - available now"WandaVision" features Wanda Maximoff aka Scarlet Witch (Elizabeth Olsen) and Vision (Paul Bettany) post "Avengers: Endgame." The two characters find themselves living a seemingly perfect suburban life, but soon begin to question the reality of their idyllic world. Characters like Jimmy Woo (Randall Park) from "Ant-Man and the Wasp" and Darcy Lewis (Kat Dennings) from "Thor: The Dark World" also make appearances. The show introduces Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau, a character that appears in the "Captain Marvel" movie series.'The Falcon and the Winter Soldier'— available now"The Falcon and the Winter Soldier" continues the story from the conclusion of "Avengers: Endgame," in which Captain America gave his shield to Sam Wilson, aka Falcon (Anthony Mackie).To protect the captain's legacy, Wilson teams up with Bucky Barnes, a rehabilitated assassin once known as the Winter Solider. Baron Zemo, the villain from "Captain America: Civil War," returns for the six-episode series as well.'Loki' - available nowIn the new "Loki" series, Tom Hiddleston returns as the Nordic trickster after stealing an artifact called "the tesseract" that enables him to travel through space and time. The series introduces a new Marvel character named Sylvie and a new recurring villain for phase four of the Marvel Cinematic Universe played by "Lovecraft Country" star Jonathan Majors.'What If?' - available now"What If...?" is an animated series based in the Marvel Universe. The show focuses on alternate versions of major events from the MCU, allowing viewers to see how small changes can alter the course of different characters.Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther), Josh Brolin (Thanos), Chris Hemsworth (Thor), Samuel L. Jackson (Nick Fury), and many more lend their voices to the series. 'Hawkeye' - available nowIMDbIn the "Hawkeye" original series, Clint Barton (Jeremy Renner) mentors another young sharpshooter, Kate Bishop. Actress Hailee Steinfeld, who voiced Gwen Stacy in "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse," plays Kate.'She-Hulk' - TBAIMDb"She-Hulk" will focus on Jennifer Walters, a lawyer who happens to be the cousin of the Hulk, aka Bruce Banner (Mark Ruffalo). In the comics, Walters becomes She-Hulk after receiving a blood transfusion from Banner. However, She-Hulk is in much greater control of her personality when she transforms.Marvel producer Kevin Feige says the new show will be a 30-minute legal comedy, drawing comparisons to the "She-Hulk" comics written by long-time "Spider-Man" author Dan Slott and Charles Soule. In those books, She-Hulk worked as a defense attorney in cases involving superpowered people.Tatiana Maslany has been cast to play the title role. Maslany is best known for starring in the sci-fi series "Orphan Black."'Armor Wars' — TBADisneyDon Cheadle will return to his role as James Rhodes, aka War Machine, in "Armor Wars." Borrowing its name from a major comic book event, "Armor Wars" explores what happens when Tony Stark is no longer able to protect the weapons he created from those who would use them to do harm. 'Secret Invasion' — TBADisney"Secret Invasion" is a major Marvel comics event that saw multiple heroes replaced by alien impersonators called Skulls. The Marvel Cinematic Universe introduced the Skrulls in "Captain Marvel" in 2019, but the MCU version of "Secret Invasion" is sure to include a much different set of characters.Samuel Jackson will appear as Nick Fury for the first time in an MCU show, while Ben Mendelsohn will appear as his Talos character from "Captain Marvel" and "Spider-Man: Far From Home."'Ironheart' — TBADisney"Ironheart" will star Dominique Thorne as young inventor Riri Williams, who creates a dynamic suit of armor inspired by Tony Stark's Iron Man.In the comics, Riri has fought alongside the Avengers and is a member of the teenage superhero team Champions, with Miles Morales and Kamala Khan.'The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special' — Holiday 2022DisneyThe cast of "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" is filming a holiday special on the set of the upcoming movie. The film isn't due out until 2023, but the holiday special is due out in fall 2022.James Gunn, writer and director for all three "Guardians" films so far, will also be in charge of the holiday special.'I Am Groot' — TBADisney"I Am Groot" will be a collection of animated shorts featuring the fan-favorite character from "Guardians of the Galaxy." It's not clear how long or how frequent the shorts will be, but they're said to star Baby Groot and several new characters.'Marvel Hero Project' - Available nowDisney+One of the reality programs on Disney Plus is "Marvel Hero Project," which highlights extraordinary kids who have helped their community.In each episode, the heroic kids get surprised with the honor of being drawn as superheroes in their very own Marvel comic. The comics will then be available via Marvel Unlimited and the Marvel Digital Comic Store for free.Marvel TV shows - currently availableMarvel/Disney Channel/IMDb"Spider-Woman" (1979)"Spider-Man" (1981)"Spider-Man and His Amazing Friends" (1981)"X-Men: The Series" (1992)"Iron Man" (1994)"Fantastic Four" (1994)"Spider-Man"(1994)"The Incredible Hulk" (1996)"The Silver Surfer" (1998)"Avengers: United They Stand" (1999)"Spider-Man Unlimited" (1999)"X-Men: Evolution" (2000)"Fantastic Four: World's Greatest Heroes" (2006)"Iron Man: Armored Adventures" (2008)"Wolverine and the X-Men" (2009)"The Super Hero Squad" (2009)"The Avengers: Earth's Mightiest Heroes" (2010)"Marvel's Ultimate Spider-Man" (2012)"Hulk and the Agents of S.M.A.S.H." (2013)"Avengers Assemble" (2013)"Agent Carter" (2015)"Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy" (2015)"Spider-Man (2017)"Inhumans" (2017)"Runaways" (2017)"Marvel Rising: Secret Warriors" (2018)"Marvel 616"Disney Plus Monthly Subscription Service$7.99 FROM DISNEY+Disney Plus FAQsWhat is Disney Plus and how much does it cost?Disney Plus is Disney's ad-free streaming service with tons of movies and TV shows from Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and 20th Century Fox.A monthly subscription costs $8 a month, and an annual subscription costs $80 a year. There's also a $14 bundle with ESPN+ and Hulu.Read everything else you should know about Disney Plus here:Disney Plus: All your questions answered about Disney's ad-free streaming serviceDisney Plus costs $8 a month on its own, but you can bundle it with Hulu and ESPN+ for an extra $6All the kids' movies you can stream on Disney Plus — from 'Snow White' to 'Frozen'All the new kids' shows you can watch on Disney Plus — from 'Vampirina' to the new reboot of 'Star Wars: The Clone Wars'All the new shows you can watch on Disney Plus — from 'The Mandalorian' to 'WandaVision'All the Star Wars movies and shows you can stream on Disney PlusAll the Pixar films and shorts you can stream on Disney Plus — from 'Toy Story' to 'Inside Out'Disney Plus Monthly Subscription Service$7.99 FROM DISNEY+Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderMar 17th, 2022

Malthusianism, Prometheanism, & The Hyper-Bitcoinized World To Come

Malthusianism, Prometheanism, & The Hyper-Bitcoinized World To Come Via, 2021 Letter to Shareholders Dear Fellow Shareholders of Cathedra Bitcoin Inc: In 1798, a British economist was concerned that the incessant increase in population would cause humanity to run out of food. As a solution, he supported a variety of measures aimed at curbing the rate of population growth (e.g., taxes on food) to improve the living standards for those humans who did survive. The economist in question, Thomas Malthus, was raised in a country house in Surrey, was educated at Jesus College Cambridge, became a Fellow of the Royal Society in 1818, and–in simple terms–championed policies designed to limit (or end) human life to prevent this population bomb. “Instead of recommending cleanliness to the poor, we should encourage contrary habits. In our towns we should make the streets narrower, crowd more people into the houses, and court the return of the plague.” – Thomas Malthus, “An Essay on the Principle of Population” (1798) Looking back, we can see that such predictions have (fortunately) not come to fruition. The human population has grown ninefold since Malthus penned his infamous piece, “An Essay on the Principle of Population.” Meanwhile, technology has given humanity the ability to channel energy in ways unimaginable to Malthus, allowing us to enjoy levels of prosperity that make the elitist Malthus look like a serf in comparison. Yet we are not without our troubles. In response to COVID-19, the last two years have seen an unprecedented degree of government intervention around the world, through mandates as well as record-breaking fiscal and monetary stimulus. Meanwhile, food shortages have visited the developed and developing worlds alike. Housing, asset, and commodity prices are soaring, with even the dubious Consumer Price Index reaching its highest level in four decades in the U.S. And around the world, civil unrest is on the rise. We believe the root causes of these issues are quite simple: unsound money and unsound energy infrastructure. In this first annual letter to Cathedra Bitcoin shareholders, we examine the current state of both and discuss how they inform our vision for the future of the company. Macro Update: Energy The European Energy Crisis For the last six months, headlines have been filled with a “European Energy Crisis.” As the global economy surged back to life after 18 months of lockdowns, a perfect storm of events unfolded: over the summer, China increased natural gas imports following a coal shortage, causing power prices to rise in Europe; in September, a wind shortage beset northern Europe, resulting in enormous sums being paid to dispatch other (“dirtier”) forms of generation; reduced natural gas imports from Russia left Europe with historically low natural gas reserves; in December, unusually cold temperatures hit the continent, sending shockwaves through energy markets (even serving as a catalyst for the civil unrest in Kazakhstan); and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in recent weeks has sent oil and gas prices surging, bringing calls for increased domestic energy production. These events have conspired to cause a sharp increase in energy prices around the continent. One is tempted to point to any one of the above as a “black swan event” driven by unforeseeable forces beyond our control (in hindsight, it will be even more tempting to blame this crisis on Putin’s invasion of Ukraine). But in reality, Europe has been systematically dismantling its stable energy infrastructure for over a decade. And unfortunately, they are not alone. Take California, for example: over the last decade, the state has seen energy prices rise 7x more than those in the rest of the U.S., and blackouts have become “almost daily events.” If one looks deeper, a far subtler cause reveals itself: misguided policies that subsidize intermittent renewables and shutter stable forms of generation, the net effects of which are energy insecurity and higher energy costs. The Real “Energy Transition” Beginning in the early 2000s, governments around the world began reorienting energy policy around climate change. These “net-zero” policies push for an “energy transition” away from CO2-emitting energy sources toward 100% “renewable” energy, primarily via subsidies to intermittent wind and solar generation. On the surface, these policies seem to have worked. EU power generation from renewables has increased 157% in the last ten years. As a result, in 2020, renewable generation in Europe surpassed that of fossil fuels for the first time, providing 38% of the region’s electricity (vs. fossil fuels’ 37%). And these policies are only accelerating: in July 2021, the EU announced its even more ambitious goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030, requiring an estimated tripling of wind and solar generation from 547 TWh in 2020 to ~1,500 TWh in 2030. These pro-renewables policies have been paired with the abandonment of more stable forms of generation. Coal continues to be pushed out of the generation stack due to its heavy carbon footprint and the rising cost of carbon credits. Additionally, despite the seemingly obvious importance of nuclear energy in a “net-zero” carbon future, regulators have been shutting down nuclear reactors around the world in response to environmentalist movements[1] (a trend that accelerated in the wake of the Fukushima disaster). Germany alone shut down 16 GW of nuclear power since 2011, and plans to retire its last three nuclear power plants this year. With hydro being geography-dependent and long-term energy storage unsolved, natural gas is left as the main  viable form of dispatchable generation. Given self-imposed fracking bans, Europe has no choice but to import natural gas via LNG or pipelines (largely from Russia). Returning to California, we see the same dangerous combination of policies. Despite the aforementioned rising electricity costs and grid fragility, the state is decommissioning its last nuclear power plant at Diablo Canyon–responsible for ~10% of the state’s electricity–while reasserting goals to achieve “net-zero” by 2045. Unfortunately, even if stable forms of generation are not discarded by mandates, renewables subsidies distort market signals. This auxiliary revenue stream of carbon or renewable energy credits allows wind and solar farms to sell power to the grid at negative prices, often driving unsubsidized, baseload generation out of business. The net result? The hollowing out of sound energy infrastructure, which increases both the costs and fragility of the energy system. In her book Shorting the Grid, Meredith Angwin warns of a “fatal trifecta” affecting grids around the world: (1) overreliance on renewables, (2) overreliance on natural gas, often used to load-follow renewables, and (3) overreliance on energy imports. When demand outpaces supply, either due to diminished output from renewables or heightened demand (e.g., during a cold snap), grid operators seek to dispatch additional generation. But natural gas and energy imports are both vulnerable to disruptions, as natural gas is typically delivered just-in-time via pipelines and neighboring regions are likely to experience correlated supply or demand shocks (read: weather). This results in more expensive energy (increased demand chasing limited supply) or enforced blackouts (e.g., Texas in February 2021). “Grid fragility” may sound like a highly abstract concept, but its real-world consequences are severe. It means industry halting, hospitals losing power, and even access to clean water being threatened. Such effects are so severe that energy-insecure countries tend to rely on more rudimentary forms of energy, including expensive backup diesel generators, to keep the lights on. Robert Bryce has termed this phenomenon the “Iron Law of Electricity”: people, businesses, and governments will do whatever they must to get the electricity they need[2]. We fear these confused policies are causing an energy transition of the wrong kind–one toward energy insecurity. Its effects are clear in the U.S., where “major electric disturbances and unusual occurrences” on the grid have increased 13x over the last 20 years. Meanwhile, Generac, a leading gas-powered backup generator company, saw 50% growth in sales in 2021 (it's worth highlighting the contradiction between the stated aims of these “net-zero” policies and their downstream effects). A Malthusian Approach to Energy Energy insecurity is also expensive. Dependence on intermittent renewables often results in paying top-dollar for energy when it’s needed most. During its September wind shortage, the UK paid GBP 4,000 per MWh to turn on a coal power plant–a clear demonstration that not all megawatt hours are created equal. The quality of energy matters. With renewables, humanity is once again at the mercy of the weather. This is the underlying logic of these “net-zero” policies: make energy more expensive so that we use less of it. In fact, economists advising the European Central Bank view rising energy costs (“greenflation”) as a feature, not a bug–a necessary consequence of the energy transition. Rising energy prices are a regressive tax on the least well-off in society. We all require energy to survive (heating/cooling, food, water, etc.), regardless of our wealth. These requirements are effectively a fixed cost; the lower one’s income, the greater the percentage of it one spends on energy. There is a point beyond which rising energy costs become unsustainable, sending people to the streets to fight for their survival–as we saw in Kazakhstan after the spike in LPG prices. Researchers estimate that each 1% increase in heating prices causes a 0.06% increase in winter-related deaths, with disproportionate effects in low-income areas. “If energy is life, then the lack of energy is death.” – Doomberg, “Shooting Oil in a Barrel” (2021) Energy is the key input for every other good and service in the economy, and over time accounts for all wealth in an economy. To the extent energy gets more expensive, so does everything else (including and especially food), making society poorer. This is the Malthusian approach to energy. Expensive “green” energy that the elites can afford, while the unwashed masses bear the brunt of those rising costs. Energy for me, but not for thee. We question the political and social sustainability of such an approach. Enter Entropy Energy’s role is even more fundamental to the economy and human well-being than most understand. As we’ve discussed elsewhere, what is commonly understood as “energy generation” is really just the conversion of energy into a more highly ordered form; it is the reduction of entropy locally by shedding even greater amounts of entropy elsewhere. Despite the universality of this entropy reduction, some energy resources are inherently lower-entropy than others (highly dense nuclear fission vs. low-density wind power). We depend on this entropy reduction to sustain us through the food and energy we need to maintain the order of civilization. This entropy reduction is cumulative; without sufficient entropy-reducing energy infrastructure, we cannot maintain our existing order. We cannot create entropy-reducing energy infrastructure without adequate pre-existing infrastructure. And we cannot advance further as a civilization (i.e., create more order) unless we develop even more entropy-reducing infrastructure. “We never escape from the need for energy. Whatever the short-term variations might look like, the trend over time is for greater energy use, to deliver and crucially to maintain and replace a human sphere that is progressively further away from thermodynamic equilibrium. There is no point at which you sit down and have a rest.” – John Constable, “Energy, Entropy and the Theory of Wealth” (2016) There is no free lunch when it comes to energy. If a country’s economy grows while reducing energy consumption, it is only through de-industrialization, exporting its energy footprint to other countries (the same often holds true for carbon emissions). The second law of thermodynamics is indeed a law, the best attested regularity in natural science, not a tentative suggestion: the entropy must go somewhere. Unfortunately, distortions caused by our current monetary system have convinced many otherwise, a deception that has had dire consequences. Macro Update: Money For the last 50 years the world has participated in an unprecedented experiment: a global fiat monetary standard. In 1974, a few years after “Tricky Dick” Nixon rug-pulled the other governments of the world by severing convertibility of the U.S. dollar into gold, the U.S. struck a deal with Saudi Arabia to cement the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency: the OPEC nations would agree to sell oil exclusively for U.S. dollars, and the Saudis would receive the protection of the U.S. military in return. This arrangement, which survives to this day, became known as the “Petrodollar system,” and it has had enduring economic, social, and political consequences: securing the dollar’s status as the reserve currency of the world; bidding up U.S. asset prices via petrodollar “recycling;” displacing U.S. manufacturing capabilities and increasing economic inequality between American wage-earners and asset-owners; and contributing to the secular decline in interest rates, causing an accumulation of public- and private-sector debts and distortions in the pricing mechanism for all other assets (typically viewed in relation to the “risk-free rate” of interest on Treasuries). In recent years, cracks in the foundation of this system have begun to show. A half-century of irresponsible fiscal and monetary policy has pushed sovereign and private sector debt to the brink of unsustainability and fragilized financial markets. The once steady foreign demand for Treasuries is evaporating, forcing the Fed to begin monetizing U.S. deficits at an increasing rate. The U.S.’s share of global GDP is waning, and the role of the dollar in key trading relationships is diminishing. Even the once-mighty U.S. military—on whose supremacy the entire Petrodollar system was predicated—shows signs of degeneration. The U.S. response to the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated many of these trends. Through a series of legislative and executive actions in 2020 and 2021, Congress and the Trump and Biden administrations approved nearly $7 trillion of spending on COVID relief, a large majority of which increased the federal deficit. Not to be outdone, the Fed authorized its own emergency measures to the tune of $7 trillion. In the nearly two years since these extraordinary actions, the U.S. and the global economy has been defined by record-low interest rates (which is part of the explanation for the interest in subsidized renewables); acute supply chain disruptions (read: shortages) across critical markets; a continuation of the asset price inflation of prior decades; and the highest levels of consumer price inflation in 40 years. This last development—“not-so-transitory” CPI inflation—is perhaps most significant given it represents a departure from economic conditions since the Great Financial Crisis. The Fed now faces a predicament. With mounting cries from the public and political officials over the runaway CPI, the pressure is on Jay Powell & Co. to arrest inflation by raising interest rates. But the current state of public and private sector balance sheets complicates matters. As the Fed increases rates, so too does it increase the federal government’s borrowing cost, not to mention that of a private sector which is also saddled with dollar-denominated debt. If corporates are unable to service or refinance their debt, they will be forced to reduce costs, resulting in higher unemployment. Rest assured; rates aren’t going higher for long. Global balance sheets will not allow it. This suggests to us that we may be entering a period of financial repression, whereby inflation is allowed to run hot while interest rates remain pinned near zero, producing negative real returns and deleveraging balance sheets over several years. We also find it likely that the Fed will be forced to implement some version of a yield curve control program. Under such a policy, the central bank commits to purchasing as many bonds as necessary to cap the yields of various maturities of Treasuries at certain predetermined levels. There is precedent for a maneuver of this sort: the Fed implemented a version of the policy throughout the 1940s to inflate away the national debt during and after WWII. At the end of the long-term debt cycle, the only option is to inflate away the debt and debase the currency. But unlike in the 1940s, citizens, businesses, and governments now have several monetary alternatives available to them. We therefore believe the coming period of structural inflation will hasten a transition to a new monetary standard. The Currency Wars Cometh The writing is on the wall; the post-Bretton Woods monetary system is in its death throes. The question is not if we will see a paradigm shift away from the present dollar-based monetary order, but when. And the far more interesting question, in our view, is: what will replace it? We believe the next global monetary system will be built atop Bitcoin—with bitcoin the asset and Bitcoin the network working together to offer final settlement in a digitally native, fixed-supply reserve currency on politically neutral rails. Bitcoin uniquely enables this value proposition, and game theory and economic incentives will compel nation-states to take notice amid the collapsing monetary order. But it is not without competition. Central Bank Digital Currencies Bitcoin is the ideological and economic foil to another candidate for heir to the petrodollar: the central bank digital currency (“CBDC”). The retail CBDC—which is the variety most often discussed in policy circles—is a natively digital form of fiat money that is issued, managed, and controlled by the central bank. Their proponents claim CBDCs would enable many of the same benefits as cryptocurrencies—near-instant final settlement, programmability, high availability, etc.—without many of the attendant “disadvantages”—decentralization, untraceability, etc. CBDCs open up a whole new design space for monetary authorities, empowering them to implement creative and fine-grained policies which heretofore have been confined to masturbatory thought-experiments in BIS papers (e.g., negative interest rates). They would also allow for all manner of fiscal policies which today are operationally or technically infeasible; one can imagine government-imposed parameters around how and when a given sum of CBDC money is spent, digitally programmed into one’s Fed wallet. A universal basic income program could be effected with a single keystroke. In many ways, the CBDC is the perfect Malthusian implement. Their inherent programmability allows for granular, top-down rationing of resources for whatever “greater good” suits the politically powerful. “I’m sorry, sir. Your card has been declined, as you have already exceeded your weekly beef quota. Might we suggest a more environmentally friendly alternative, such as a Bill Gates pea protein patty?” Such a system amounts to highly efficient regulatory capture; citizens are only permitted to spend money on those goods and services favored by The Powers That Be (or the corporate interests that fund them). Expect CBDCs to further distort the pricing mechanism, leading to a variety of market failures (such as the current energy crises). Skeptics of such claims need only be reminded of the U.S. government’s recent history of abusing its power to restrict politically undesirable financial activities. It should come as no surprise that the CBDC model is being pioneered by the Chinese Communist Party in the form of a “digital renminbi.” Make no mistake—wherever a CBDC is implemented, it will be weaponized by the State for political ends. In the West, such a system would be readily abused to create a Chinese-style social credit system—but one cloaked in the neo-liberal parlance of “financial inclusion,” “climate justice,” and “anti-money laundering.” CBDCs: Coming to A Country Near You? We remain cautiously optimistic that the U.S. will forgo implementing this dystopian technology. The U.S. remains among the freest nations in the world, both politically and culturally. A CBDC is wholly incompatible with American values, and we expect millions of Americans would resist the complete usurpation of their financial lives by the State. Additionally, a retail CBDC implemented by the Fed would transfer power from the commercial banks whose interests the Fed was conceived to protect to the federal bureaucracy[3]. And is there any doubt that the U.S. now lacks the state capacity to implement a CBDC, a feat which would require a high degree of technical and operational competence? Figure 1: Which Way, Western Man? BTC vs. CBDC Bitcoin for America So, how can the U.S. extend its financial leadership of the 20th century amid the decaying Petrodollar system? The U.S. is already the frontrunner in nearly all things Bitcoin—trading volumes, mining activity, number of hodlers, entrepreneurial and business activity, capital markets activity, etc. We submit that the path of least resistance would be for America to lean into its leadership in the Bitcoin industry and embrace the technology as a privacy-respecting, open-source, free-market, and fundamentally American alternative to the totalitarian CBDC. What does “adopting Bitcoin” look like for a country like the U.S.? It is likely some combination of: (i) authorizing bitcoin as legal tender, (ii) removing onerous capital gains tax treatment, (iii) subsidizing or sponsoring mining operations (which could support domestic energy infrastructure, in turn), (iv) purchasing bitcoin as a reserve asset by the Fed and/or Treasury, or (v) making the dollar convertible into bitcoin at a fixed exchange rate. We see early signs that such a move by the U.S. may not be so far-fetched. Notably, major American policymakers have already signaled support for bitcoin as an important monetary asset and nascent industry. The “crypto” sector has grown into an important lobby in D.C. and represents a highly engaged, motivated constituency—politicians are taking notice. In our estimation, Bitcoin’s economic incentives and congruence with American values make it the leading candidate for U.S. adoption as a successor to the present monetary order. As the current dollar-based system continues to deteriorate, we are excited by the potential for a U.S.-led coalition of freedom loving nations moving to a Bitcoin Standard. Money, Energy, and Entropy Energy is the fundamental means to reduce entropy in the human sphere, and money is our tool for the direction of energy towards this end. We use money to communicate information about economic production, resolving uncertainty about how scarce resources ought to be employed. And we seek out highly ordered sources of energy to resist the influence of entropy on our bodies and societies. In his lecture, “Energy, Entropy and the Theory of Wealth,” John Constable of the Renewable Energy Foundation observes that all goods and services—and indeed, civilizations—are alike in that they are thermodynamically improbable. All require energy as an input and necessarily create order (i.e., reduce entropy) in the human domain, shifting the local state further away from thermodynamic equilibrium. So then, wealth can be understood as a thermodynamically improbable state made possible through human entropy reduction. If material wealth is measured by the goods and services one has at one’s disposal, then wealth creation on a sound monetary standard is the reduction of entropy for others, and one’s wealth is a record of one’s ability to reduce entropy for fellow man. Unsound money (of the sort the Malthusians celebrate) increases uncertainty—and therefore, entropy—in economic systems. Active management of the money supply confuses the price signal, reducing the information contained therein and erecting an economic Tower of Babel. Fiat money therefore contributes to malinvestment—entrepreneurial miscalculations which produce the wrong goods and services and increase societal entropy. Nowhere is this more apparent than in our energy infrastructure: unsound money has caused malinvestment in unsound sources of generation. As noted above, a half-century of government subsidies and declining interest rates made possible by the Petrodollar system has steered capital towards unreliable renewables that invite greater entropy into the fragile human sphere, dragging us ever closer toward thermodynamic equilibrium (read: civilizational collapse). Cathedra Bitcoin Update Our macro views on energy and money inform everything we’re doing at Cathedra. Chief among them is the belief that sound money and cheap, abundant, highly ordered energy are the fundamental ingredients to human flourishing. Our company mission is to bring both to humanity, and so lead mankind into a new Renaissance—one led by Bitcoin and the energy revolution we believe it will galvanize. Accordingly, with Cathedra we’ve set out to build a category-defining company at the intersection of bitcoin mining and energy. One which is designed to thrive in the turbulent years of the present energy and monetary transition and in the hyperbitcoinized world we believe is to come. In December we announced a change of the company’s name from Fortress Technologies to Cathedra Bitcoin. Our new name reflects our aspirations for the company and for Bitcoin more broadly. The gothic cathedral is a symbol of bold, ambitious, long-term projects; indeed, any single contributor to the monument would likely die before its completion, but contributed nonetheless—because it was a project worth undertaking. So it is with Cathedra, and so it is with Bitcoin. The religious connotations of the name “Cathedra” are not lost on us. Rather, they’re an indication of the seriousness with which we regard this mission. Ours is a quest of civilizational importance. Our new name also hints at another distinguishing feature of our business: we focus our efforts on Bitcoin, and Bitcoin only. The difference between Bitcoin and other “crypto” networks is one of kind, not degree. Bitcoin is the only meaningfully decentralized network in the “crypto” space, which is why bitcoin the asset will continue to win adoption as the preferred form of digitally native money by the world’s eight billion inhabitants. Bitcoin seeks to destroy the institution of seigniorage once and for all. Your favorite shitcoin creator just wants to capture the seigniorage himself. We feel strongly that our long-term mission of delivering sound money and cheap, abundant energy to humanity can be best achieved through a vertically integrated model. In the long-term, Cathedra will develop and/or acquire a portfolio of energy generation assets that leverages the synergies between energy production and bitcoin mining to the advantage of both businesses. In a decade, Cathedra may be as much an energy company as a bitcoin miner. Vertical integration will allow us to control our supply chain and rate of expansion to a greater degree, in addition to giving us a cost advantage over our competitors. As a low-cost producer of bitcoin, we will also be positioned to deliver a suite of ancillary products and services to customers in the Bitcoin and energy sectors. And we’ve begun making strides toward this goal. Earlier this year, the Cathedra team expanded by three with the hires of Isaac Fithian (Chief Field Operations and Manufacturing Officer), Rete Browning (Chief Technology Officer), and Tom Masiero (Head of Business Development). Each of these gentlemen brings years of experience in developing and deploying mobile bitcoin mining infrastructure in off-grid environments. With this expanded team, we recently began production of proprietary modular datacenters to house the 5,100 bitcoin mining machines we have scheduled for delivery throughout 2022. We’re calling these datacenters “rovers,” a nod to their mobility, embedded automation, and capacity to operate under harsh environmental conditions in remote geographies. The modularity and modest footprint of our rovers will allow us to produce them at a rapid pace and deploy them wherever the cheapest power is found, in both on- and off-grid environments. We are proud to be manufacturing our fleet of rovers entirely in New Hampshire, working with the local business community to bring heavy industry back to the U.S. As bitcoin miners, we view ourselves as managers of a portfolio of hash rate. As in the traditional asset management business, diversification can be a powerful asset. Whereas most of the large, publicly traded bitcoin miners are pursuing a similar strategy to one another—developing and/or renting space at hyperscale, on-grid datacenters in which to operate their mining machines—we have optimized our approach to minimize regulatory, market, environmental, or other idiosyncratic risk within our portfolio of hash rate. If one has 90% of one’s hash rate portfolio concentrated in a single on-grid site, 90% of one’s revenue can be shut off by a grid failure or other catastrophic event—an occurrence which is sadly becoming more common, as highlighted in our Energy Update. To our knowledge, Cathedra is the only publicly traded bitcoin miner with both on- and off-grid operations today. We increasingly believe that the future of bitcoin mining is off-grid. On-grid deployments are already vulnerable to myriad unique risks today, and we believe their economic proposition will become less attractive over time. As power producers continue to integrate bitcoin mining at the site of generation themselves, large on-grid miners positioned “downstream” in the energy value chain will see their electricity rates rise. Today, “off-grid” describes any arrangement in which a bitcoin miner procures power directly from an energy producer. Popular implementations include stranded and flared natural gas and behind-the-meter hydro and nuclear. In the long-term, we believe the only way to remain competitive will be to vertically integrate down to the energy generation asset. Mining bitcoin is a capital-intensive business. To ensure we have access to the capital we’ll require to execute on our vision, we’ve embarked on several capital markets initiatives. In February, Cathedra commenced trading on the OTCQX Best Market under the symbol “CBTTF.” This milestone represents a significant upgrade from our prior listing on the OTC Pink Market and should enhance our stock’s accessibility and liquidity for U.S. investors. We intend to list on a U.S. stock exchange in 2022 to further increase the visibility, liquidity, and trading volume in our stock. We recently announced that Cathedra secured US$17m in debt financing from NYDIG, a loan secured by bitcoin mining equipment. When it comes to borrowing in fiat to finance assets that produce bitcoin—an asset which appreciates 150%+ per year on average—almost any cost of debt makes sense. We intend to continue using non-dilutive financing in a responsible manner where possible, with a sober appreciation for the risks debt service presents as an additional fixed cost. Accumulating a formidable war chest of bitcoin on our corporate balance sheet is a priority for us. If one believes, as we do, that the next global monetary order will be built with Bitcoin at its center, then those companies with the largest bitcoin treasuries will thrive. We will continue to hold as much of our mined bitcoin as possible and may even supplement our mining activities with opportunistic bitcoin purchases on occasion. At time of writing, Cathedra has 187 PH/s of hash rate active, and another 534 PH/s of hash rate contracted via purchases of mining machines we expect to be delivered from April through December of this year. Since we replaced the prior management team in September, we have grown Cathedra’s contracted hash rate by more than 300%. And we’re just getting started. Conclusion We stand today at a crossroads between two divergent movements defined by conflicting visions for the future: Malthusianism and Prometheanism. The Malthusians believe progress is zero (or even negative) sum; resources are finite and “degrowth” is the only viable path forward; we ought to judge human action first and foremost by whether it disturbs the natural world. This movement is characterized by totalitarian CBDCs and a desire to make energy more scarce and expensive, so that earth’s resources can be appropriately rationed. On the other hand, the Prometheans carry with them a more optimistic vision: progress is positive-sum; human creativity allows us to liberate and employ resources in novel ways, in turn preserving the natural world for our own benefit; and that human flourishing is the moral standard by which we should evaluate human action. These are social, cultural, and spiritual choices we are all called to confront. “The century will be fought between Malthusians (“resources are finite”; obsessed with overpopulation; scarcity mindset; zero-sum, finite games) and Prometheans (“human imagination is the most valuable natural resource”; abundance mindset; positive sum, infinite games).” – Alpha Barry (2020) The Malthusian camp wants top-down, centralized management of resources via CBDCs and energy rationing policies. They believe our energy resources are fixed; the only path forward is backward, farming for energy using huge swaths of land controlled by the privileged few. “Industrialization for me but not for thee.” “You’ll own nothing and be happy.” These are the slogans of the Malthusian movement. This is not the path that took us to space and lifted billions out of poverty. We, Cathedra, choose the other path. That of Prometheus, who stole fire from the gods to benefit humankind. We believe in a future of sound money that brings property rights to eight billion humans around the world. A world of beautiful, free cities powered by dense and highly ordered forms of energy generation. Small modular nuclear reactors with load-balancing bitcoin miners (and no seed oils). A future in which technology is employed to improve the human condition–not only for those who walk the earth today, but for generations to come. Bitcoin mining is a powerful ally to the Promethean cause. As the energy buyer of last resort, Bitcoin promotes sound money and sound energy infrastructure. No two forces are more fundamental to keeping disorder at bay and advancing human civilization. We at Cathedra are not alone; there are other Prometheans working tirelessly to further this vision of a freer, more prosperous tomorrow. Human flourishing is earned, not given. Together, we win. Drew Armstrong President & Chief Operating Officer AJ Scalia Chief Executive Officer Tyler Durden Mon, 03/14/2022 - 19:40.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytMar 14th, 2022

PREIT Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Results

Core Mall Sales Per Square Foot Reach $614 in January, up from $603 at Year End Cherry Hill Mall Sales Near $1,000 per square foot Strong Total Core Mall Leased Space at 94.3% PHILADELPHIA, March 14, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- PREIT (NYSE:PEI) today reported results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2021.  A description of each non-GAAP financial measure and the related reconciliation to the comparable GAAP financial measure is provided in the tables accompanying this release. Three Months Ended December 31, Year Ended December 31, (per share amounts) 2021 2020 2021 2020 Net loss - basic and diluted $ (0.43) $ (2.62) $ (2.04) $ (3.72) FFO 0.17 (0.22) 0.05 (0.02) FFO, as adjusted 0.17 (0.13) (0.04) (0.01) "Strong demand continued to drive record operating results for the quarter and year in sales, leasing activity, traffic and net operating income," said Joseph F. Coradino, Chairman and CEO of PREIT.  "We are focused on unlocking value for our stakeholders, we will continue to drive portfolio improvement, operating performance and execution on our plan to improve our capital position through asset sales and incremental revenue generation.  Our progress on capital-raising initiatives is palpable with new contracts executed and closing dates set for the first half of the year." Same Store NOI, excluding lease termination revenue, increased 52.5% for the three months ended December 31, 2021 compared to the three months ended December 31, 2020. For the quarter, results were driven by an increase in rent, percentage rent, percent sales and common area revenue of $9.2 million and a decrease in credit losses for challenged tenants of $10.7 million as compared to the three months ended December 31, 2020. Same Store NOI, excluding lease termination revenue, increased 26.4% for the year ended December 31, 2021 compared to the year ended December 31, 2020. Robust leasing activity is driving increased occupancy with Core Mall Total Occupancy increasing by 290 basis points, sequentially, to 93.2%. Mall Non-anchor Occupancy increased 10 basis points, sequentially, to 89.5%. Total Occupancy improved 330 basis points, year-over-year, compared to December 31, 2020. Total Core Mall leased space, at 94.3%, exceeds occupied space by 110 basis points, and core mall non-anchor leased space, at 91.2%, exceeds occupied space by 170 basis points when including executed new leases slated for future occupancy, demonstrating the rapid pace of leasing activity. For the rolling 12 month period ended December 30, 2021, core mall comparable sales grew by 11.9% to a record $603 per square foot. Core Mall comparable sales for January improved 1.8%, sequentially, to $614. Average renewal spreads for the three months ended December 31, 2021 remained flat. Sequentially, average renewal spreads for tenants less than 10,000 square feet improved from (2.3%) for the quarter ended September 30, 2021 to flat for the quarter ended December 31, 2021. Average renewal spreads reflected a modest decline for the year at (0.9%). The Company made advances in its capital-raising efforts with closed transactions or executed agreements of sale for $105 million of assets and is finalizing or has executed letters of intent for over $75 million of additional asset sales. Leasing and Redevelopment 497,000 square feet of leases are signed for future openings, which is expected to contribute annual gross rent of $8.8 million. Leasing momentum continues to build with transactions executed for 120,000 square feet of occupancy thus far in 2022. Tilt Studio replaced JCPenney in 104,000 square feet at Magnolia Mall in Florence, SC. The family-focused destination opened in October 2021. Turn 7 opened in the former Lord & Taylor space at Moorestown Mall in December. A transaction was executed with Cooper University Health Care for an outpatient location in the former Sears space at Moorestown Mall in Moorestown, NJ. Entitlements have been obtained for buyer's site plan to add 375 multifamily units to Moorestown Mall. Construction is expected to begin this year on a new self-storage facility in previously unused below grade space at Mall at Prince George's in Hyattsville, MD. A lease has been executed with Tilted 10 and Tilt Studio, an action-packed bi-level 104,000 square foot indoor family entertainment center to replace the former JCPenney at Willow Grove Park, adding family entertainment to this locally-loved destination shopping experience. Phoenix Theatres is under construction to bring a first-class movie experience to Woodland Mall in 47,000 square feet in April 2022. HomeGoods is expected to open a new store in 23,000 square feet at Cumberland Mall this month. A lease has been executed with Merlin Entertainment to bring a new prototype, 32,000 square foot, LEGO® Discovery Center to the Washington DC Market at Springfield Town Center. Leases with exciting new-to-portfolio tenants have been executed at Cherry Hill Mall for occupancy in 2022: Eddie V's Prime Seafood, Marc Cain and Warby Parker. Primary Factors Affecting Financial Results for the Three Months Ended December 31, 2021 and 2020 Net loss attributable to PREIT common shareholders was $34.5 million (which takes into consideration the accrual of preferred dividends that accumulated during the quarter but have not been paid), or $0.43 per basic and diluted share for the three months ended December 31, 2021, compared to net loss attributable to PREIT common shareholders of $202.1 million, or $2.62 per basic and diluted share for the three months ended December 31, 2020. Same Store NOI, including lease terminations, increased by $21.7 million, or 53.8%. The increase is primarily due to higher percent sales and percentage rent, and decrease in credit losses as compared to the prior year. Non-Same Store NOI decreased by $1.4 million, primarily due to lower base rent in the current year. FFO for the three months ended December 31, 2021 was $0.17 per diluted share and OP Unit compared to $(0.22) per diluted share and OP Unit for the three months ended December 31, 2020. All NOI and FFO amounts referenced as primary factors affecting financial results above include our share of unconsolidated properties' revenues and expenses. Additional information regarding changes in operating results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2021 and 2020 is included on page 14. Liquidity and Financing Activities As of December 31, 2021, the Company had $75.5 million available under its First Lien Revolving Credit Facility. The Company's corporate cash balances, when combined with available credit, provides total liquidity of $110.6 million. In December, the mortgage loan secured by Woodland Mall was extended for one year. Subsequent to the close of the quarter, the one year extension option on the mortgage loan secured by Gloucester Premium Outlets was completed. The Company's 10-K for 2021 will include a going concern footnote in connection with potential future obligations related specifically to the FDP Term Loan. Asset Dispositions Multifamily Land Parcels: The Company has executed agreements of sale for land parcels for anticipated multi-family development in the amount of $82.5 million. The agreements are with multiple buyers across six properties for over 2,200 units as part of the Company's previously announced multi-family land sale plan.  Closing on the transactions is subject to customary due diligence provisions and securing entitlements.  Hotel Parcels: The Company has an executed agreement of sale to convey a land parcel for anticipated hotel development in the amount of $2.5 million for approximately 125 rooms. The Company has an executed LOI for the sale of a parcel for hotel development at Springfield Town Center for $2.5 million. Closing on these transactions is subject to customary due diligence provisions and securing entitlements. Other Parcels:  In November 2021, the Company closed on the sale of the last remaining parcel at the previously-owned Monroe Power Center for $1.0 million.  In February, we completed the redemption of preferred equity issued as part of the sale of our New Garden land parcel.  In connection with this settlement, we received approximately $2.5 million.   The Company expects to close on the sale of an anchor box at Valley View Mall in the second quarter for $2.8 million. 2022 Outlook The Company is not issuing detailed guidance at this time. Conference Call Information Management has scheduled a conference call for 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time on TuesdayMarch 15, 2022, to review the Company's results and future outlook.  To listen to the call, please dial 1(888) 330-2024 (domestic toll free), or 1(646) 960-0187 (international), and request to join the PREIT call, Conference ID 9326912, at least fifteen minutes before the scheduled start time as callers could experience delays.  Investors can also access the call in a "listen only" mode via the internet at the Company's website,  Please allow extra time prior to the call to visit the site and download the necessary software to listen to the Internet broadcast.  Financial and statistical information expected to be discussed on the call will also be available on the Company's website. For interested individuals unable to join the conference call, the online archive of the webcast will also be available for one year following the call. About PREIT PREIT (NYSE:PEI) is a publicly traded real estate investment trust that owns and manages innovative properties developed to be thoughtful, community-centric hubs. PREIT's robust portfolio of carefully curated, ever-evolving properties generates success for its tenants and meaningful impact for the communities it serves by keenly focusing on five core areas of established and emerging opportunity: multi-family & hotel, health & tech, retail, essentials & grocery and experiential. Located primarily in densely-populated regions, PREIT is a top operator of high quality, purposeful places that serve as one-stop destinations for customers to shop, dine, play and stay. Additional information is available at or on Twitter, Instagram or LinkedIn. Rounding Certain summarized information in the tables included may not total due to rounding. Definitions Funds From Operations ("FFO") The National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts ("NAREIT") defines Funds From Operations ("FFO"), which is a non-GAAP measure commonly used by REITs, as net income (computed in accordance with GAAP) excluding (i) depreciation and amortization of real estate, (ii) gains and losses on sales of certain real estate assets, (iii) gains and losses from change in control and (iv) impairment write-downs of certain real estate assets and investments in entities when the impairment is directly attributable to decreases in the value of depreciable real estate held by the entity. We compute FFO in accordance with standards established by NAREIT, which may not be comparable to FFO reported by other REITs that do not define the term in accordance with the current NAREIT definition, or that interpret the current NAREIT definition differently than we do. NAREIT's established guidance provides that excluding impairment write downs of depreciable real estate is consistent with the NAREIT definition. FFO is a commonly used measure of operating performance and profitability among REITs. We use FFO and FFO per diluted share and unit of limited partnership interest in our operating partnership ("OP Unit") in measuring our performance against our peers and as one of the performance measures for determining incentive compensation amounts earned under certain of our performance-based executive compensation programs. FFO does not include gains and losses on sales of operating real estate assets or impairment write downs of depreciable real estate (including development land parcels), which are included in the determination of net loss in accordance with GAAP. Accordingly, FFO is not a comprehensive measure of our operating cash flows. In addition, since FFO does not include depreciation on real estate assets, FFO may not be a useful performance measure when comparing our operating performance to that of other non-real estate commercial enterprises. We compensate for these limitations by using FFO in conjunction with other GAAP financial performance measures, such as net loss and net cash used in operating activities, and other non-GAAP financial performance measures, such as NOI. FFO does not represent cash generated from operating activities in accordance with GAAP and should not be considered to be an alternative to net loss (determined in accordance with GAAP) as an indication of our financial performance or to be an alternative to cash flow from operating activities (determined in accordance with GAAP) as a measure of our liquidity, nor is it indicative of funds available for our cash needs, including our ability to make cash distributions. We believe that net loss is the most directly comparable GAAP measurement to FFO. When applicable, we also present FFO, as adjusted, and FFO per diluted share and OP Unit, as adjusted, which are non-GAAP measures, for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, to show the effect of such items as gain or loss on debt extinguishment (including accelerated amortization of financing costs), impairment of assets, provision for employee separation expense, insurance recoveries or losses, net, gain on derecognition of property, gain or loss on hedge ineffectiveness and reorganization expenses which had an effect on our results of operations, but are not, in our opinion, indicative of our ongoing operating performance. We believe that FFO is helpful to management and investors as a measure of operating performance because it excludes various items included in net loss that do not relate to or are not indicative of operating performance, such as gains on sales of operating real estate and depreciation and amortization of real estate, among others. We believe that Funds From Operations, as adjusted, is helpful to management and investors as a measure of operating performance because it adjusts FFO to exclude items that management does not believe are indicative of our operating performance, such as provision for employee separation expense, gain on hedge ineffectiveness and reorganization expenses. Net Operating Income ("NOI") NOI (a non-GAAP measure) is derived from real estate revenue (determined in accordance with GAAP, including lease termination revenue), minus property operating expenses (determined in accordance with GAAP), plus our pro rata share of revenue and property operating expenses of our unconsolidated partnership investments. NOI does not represent cash generated from operating activities in accordance with GAAP and should not be considered to be an alternative to net loss (determined in accordance with GAAP) as an indication of our financial performance or to be an alternative to cash flow from operating activities (determined in accordance with GAAP) as a measure of our liquidity. It is not indicative of funds available for our cash needs, including our ability to make cash distributions. We believe NOI is helpful to management and investors as a measure of operating performance because it is an indicator of the return on property investment, and provides a method of comparing property performance over time. We believe that net loss is the most directly comparable GAAP measure to NOI. NOI excludes other income, depreciation and amortization, general and administrative expenses, insurance recoveries and losses, net, provision for employee separation expenses, project costs and other expenses, interest expense, reorganization expenses, impairment of assets, equity in loss/income of partnerships, gain on extinguishment of debt, gain/loss on sale of real estate and gain/loss on sales of non-operating real estate. Same Store NOI is calculated using retail properties owned for the full periods presented and excludes properties acquired or disposed of, under redevelopment, or designated as non-core during the periods presented.  Non Same Store NOI is calculated using the retail properties excluded from the calculation of Same Store NOI. Unconsolidated Properties and Proportionate Financial Information The non-GAAP financial measures of FFO and NOI presented in this press release incorporate financial information attributable to our share of unconsolidated properties. This proportionate financial information is non-GAAP financial information, but we believe that it is helpful information because it reflects the pro rata contribution from our unconsolidated properties that are owned through investments accounted for under GAAP using the equity method of accounting. Under such method, earnings from these unconsolidated partnerships are recorded in our statements of operations prepared in accordance with GAAP under the caption entitled "Equity in (loss) income of partnerships." To derive the proportionate financial information from our unconsolidated properties," we multiplied the percentage of our economic interest in each partnership on a property-by-property basis by each line item.  Under the partnership agreements relating to our current unconsolidated partnerships with third parties, we own a 25% to 50% economic interest in such partnerships, and there are generally no provisions in such partnership agreements relating to special non-pro rata allocations of income or loss, and there are no preferred or priority returns of capital or other similar provisions.  While this method approximates our indirect economic interest in our pro rata share of the revenue and expenses of our unconsolidated partnerships, we do not have a direct legal claim to the assets, liabilities, revenues or expenses of the unconsolidated partnerships beyond our rights as an equity owner in the event of any liquidation of such entity.  Our percentage ownership is not necessarily indicative of the legal and economic implications of our ownership interest.  Accordingly, NOI and FFO results based on our share of the results of unconsolidated partnerships do not represent cash generated from our investments in these partnerships. Core Properties Core Properties include all operating retail properties except for Exton Square Mall. Valley View Mall was previously designated a non-core property, as we no longer operate this property. Core Malls excludes these properties, power centers and Gloucester Premium Outlets. Forward Looking Statements This press release contains certain forward-looking statements that can be identified by the use of words such as "anticipate," "believe," "estimate,"  "expect," "intend," "may," "project," and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements relate to expectations, beliefs, projections, future plans, strategies, anticipated events, trends and other matters that are not historical facts. These forward-looking statements reflect our current views about future events, achievements, results, cost reductions and the impact of COVID-19 and are subject to risks, uncertainties and changes in circumstances that might cause future events, achievements or results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. In particular, our business might be materially and adversely affected by the following: the effectiveness of our financial restructuring and any additional strategies that we may employ to address our liquidity and capital resources in the future; our ability to achieve forecasted revenue and pro forma leverage ratio and generate free cash flow to further reduce indebtedness; the COVID-19 global pandemic and the public health and governmental response, which have created periods of significant economic disruptions and also have and may continue to exacerbate many of the risks listed herein; changes in the retail and real estate industries, including bankruptcies, consolidation and store closings, particularly among anchor tenants; changes in economic conditions, including unemployment rates and its effects on consumer confidence and spending, supply chain challenges, the current inflationary environment,and the corresponding effects on tenant business performance, prospects, solvency and leasing decisions; our inability to collect rent due to the bankruptcy or insolvency of tenants or otherwise; our ability to maintain and increase property occupancy, sales and rental rates; increases in operating costs that cannot be passed on to tenants, which may be exacerbated in the current inflationary environment; the effects of online shopping and other uses of technology on our retail tenants; risks related to our development and redevelopment activities, including delays, cost overruns and our inability to reach projected occupancy or rental rates; social unrest and acts of vandalism or violence at malls, including our properties, or at other similar spaces, and the potential effect on traffic and sales; our ability to sell properties that we seek to dispose of, which may be delayed by, among other things, the failure to obtain zoning, occupancy and other governmental approvals or, to the extent required, approvals of other third parties; potential losses on impairment of certain long-lived assets, such as real estate, including losses that we might be required to record in connection with any disposition of assets; our substantial debt and our ability to remain in compliance with our financial covenants under our debt facilities; our ability to raise capital, including through sales of properties or interests in properties, subject to the terms of our Credit Agreements; and potential dilution from any capital raising transactions or other equity issuances. Additional factors that might cause future events, achievements or results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by our forward-looking statements include those discussed herein and in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020 in the section entitled "Item 1A. Risk Factors" and any subsequent reports we file with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements made by us speak only as of the date on which they are made, and we do not intend to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise. **     Quarterly supplemental financial and operating     ** **     information will be available on     ** Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust Selected Financial Data Three Months Ended  December 31, Year Ended  December 31, (in thousands of dollars) 2021 2020 2021 2020 REVENUE: Real estate revenue: Lease revenue $ 76,502 $ 58,828 $ 270,065 $ 237,141 Expense reimbursements 4,078 4,142 16,514 15,462 Other real estate revenue 4,462 3,529 9,290 8,333 Total real estate revenue 85,042 66,499 295,869 260,936 Other income 131 123 561 887 Total revenue 85,173 66,622 296,430 261,823 EXPENSES: Operating expenses: Property operating expenses: CAM and real estate taxes (26,034) (26,104) (105,933) (106,522) Utilities (2,901) (2,858) (12,473) (11,829) Other property operating expenses (2,596) (2,848) (9,176) (8,547) Total property operating expenses (31,531) (31,810) (127,582) (126,898) Depreciation and amortization (29,319) (30,765) (117,986) (126,362) General and administrative expenses (9,751) (19,480) (49,570) (50,272) Provision for employee separation expenses (25) (55) (305) (1,227) Insurance recoveries, net (1) - 669 586 Project costs and other expenses (104) (7) (309) (294) Total operating expenses (70,731) (82,117) (295,083) (304,467) Interest expense, net (32,896) (30,042) (128,031) (84,341) (Loss) gain on debt extinguishment, net - (1,487) 4,587 (1,487) Gain on derecognition of property - 1,121 - 8,127 Impairment of assets (8,374) - (9,938) - Reorganization expenses - (3,769).....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaMar 14th, 2022

Vor Bio Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Financial Results and Provides Company Update

Initial clinical data for Vor Bio's engineered HSC candidate VOR33 expected in 2H 2022 New program VCAR33ALLO using healthy donor-derived T cells IND submission expected in 1H 2023 Cash runway extended into Q4 2023 providing additional financial flexibility and optionality CAMBRIDGE, Mass., March 14, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Vor Bio (NASDAQ:VOR), a clinical-stage cell and genome engineering company, today reported financial results for the three-month period and full year ended December 31, 2021, and provided a business update.  "2022 is a pivotal year for Vor Bio with a number of catalysts that will continue to validate the potential of our platform," said Dr. Robert Ang, Vor Bio's President and Chief Executive Officer. "We are focused on recruitment and enrollment of patients in VBP101, the Phase 1/2a trial of VOR33, our lead eHSC candidate for patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Beyond VOR33, we are advancing a number of additional exciting programs generated from our platform, including our VCAR33ALLO program which uses allogenic healthy donor cells, a potentially superior cell phenotype compared to autologous approaches. We are excited to generate first-in-human clinical data from VBP101 which we expect will support Vor Bio's unique approach to improve the lives of cancer patients." Corporate Highlights VOR33: VOR33 is the Company's lead product candidate consisting of genome-edited hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells that have been engineered to lack the CD33 protein. It is designed to replace the standard of care in transplant settings for patients suffering from AML and potentially other blood cancers. VBP101 is a Phase 1/2a multicenter, open-label, first-in-human study of VOR33 in participants with AML who are at risk of relapse. The clinical trial continues to actively recruit patients. COVID-19-related issues delayed trial site readiness resulting in enrollment delays, which are being mitigated by the opening of additional trial sites. The Company now plans to share initial clinical data from the VBP101 trial in the second half of 2022 which will include enrollment progress and initial engraftment data. Successful neutrophil engraftment would demonstrate important proof-of-concept for Vor Bio's platform. Initial data on VOR33 protecting from Mylotarg toxicities is expected to follow shortly after initial engraftment data, with patients receiving Mylotarg within 60 days of transplant. In December 2021, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted VOR33 Orphan-drug designation (ODD). Orphan-drug designation is granted by the FDA to a drug or biologic intended to treat a rare disease or condition that affects fewer than 200,000 individuals in the U.S. ODD granted therapies entitle companies to development incentives including tax credits for clinical testing, prescription drug user fee exemptions, and seven-year marketing exclusivity in the event of regulatory approval. In September 2021, VOR33 received Fast Track designation for the treatment of AML from the U.S. FDA allowing for potential facilitated development and expedited review process. VCAR33 Programs: The VCAR33 programs are chimeric antigen receptor T (CAR-T) cell therapy candidates designed to target CD33, a clinically-validated target for AML. VCAR33 is now made up of two programs with different cell sources. VCAR33AUTO uses autologous cells from each patient, and is being studied in an ongoing Phase 1/2 clinical trial sponsored by the National Marrow Donor Program (NMDP) in young adult and pediatric patients with relapsed/refractory AML in a bridge-to-transplant study. The Company anticipates that NMDP will share data from this study in 2022. VCAR33ALLO uses allogeneic healthy donor-derived cells. There has been an increasing appreciation for the value of cell phenotype in CAR-T approaches, and HLA-matched healthy donor cells are a potentially superior cell phenotype with improved persistence and in vivo expansion capability. VCAR33ALLO is a newly announced program in which Vor Bio plans to submit an investigational new drug (IND) application in the first half of 2023 to support a Phase 1/2 clinical trial for patients with relapsed/refractory AML. VOR33 + VCAR33 Treatment System: The combination of VOR33 followed by treatment with VCAR33ALLO in the post-transplant setting may transform patient outcomes and offer the potential for cures for patients that have limited treatment options. The VOR33 + VCAR33 Treatment System utilizes the same healthy donor allogenic cell source for both VOR33 and VCAR33ALLO. Following ongoing discussions with the FDA and alongside improved scientific understanding of the differences in T-cell sources, the Company now plans to collect initial data on VOR33 from the VBP101 clinical trial and initial clinical data from the VCAR33ALLO program prior to IND submission for the Treatment System. Vor Bio believes this approach will be a superior development pathway for this novel-novel treatment combination. VOR33-CLL1 + VCAR33-CLL1 Treatment System: Vor Bio continues to make progress on this new multiplex-edited program, previously announced in November 2021. Knocking out CD33 and CLL-1 through gene editing offers a promising new approach to treating patients with AML using Vor Bio's novel eHSC platform, which can be combined with a multi-specific CAR-T approach. The Company plans to share preclinical data on this approach at upcoming scientific meetings in 2022. Vor Bio's in-house manufacturing facility in Cambridge, MA headquarters to be operational in 2022. The facility is designed to support clinical manufacturing for both Vor Bio's eHSC and CAR-T product pipeline and will enable the Company to achieve flexible manufacturing capacity and reduce the time and cost required to manufacture cell therapy clinical candidates.Multiple scientific presentations presented at ASH and SITC. Vor Bio presented multiple poster presentations demonstrating the depth of science behind the Company's engineered HSCs and antigen-directed immunotherapy treatments at the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer's (SITC) 36th Annual Meeting held in November 2021 and at the 63rd American Society of Hematology (ASH) Annual Meeting & Exposition held in December of 2021. Links to these posters and presentations are located in the Medical & Scientific Events section of the Company's website. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Financial Results Cash Position: Cash, cash equivalents and investments were $207.5 million as of December 31, 2021, which now is anticipated to fund operations into the fourth quarter of 2023. Research & Development (R&D) Expenses: R&D expenses for the fourth quarter of 2021 were $12.7 million, compared to $11.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2020 and for the year ended 2021 were $47.5 million, compared to $31.6 million for the year ended 2020. The increase in R&D expenses was primarily due to an expansion of our clinical and preclinical studies, an increase in employee headcount necessary to support the growth of our R&D efforts and an increase in facility costs and other expenses. General & Administrative (G&A) Expenses: G&A expenses for the fourth quarter of 2021 were $5.6 million, compared to $4.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2020 and for the year ended 2021 were $21.5 million, compared to $11.7 million for the year ended 2020. The increase in G&A expenses was primarily due to increases in employee headcount, professional fees and facility costs and other expenses. Net Loss: Net loss for the fourth quarter of 2021 was $18.3 million, compared to $15.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2020 and for the year ended 2021 was $68.9 million, compared to $43.3 million for the year ended 2020. Upcoming Milestones Initial VOR33 clinical data expected in the second half of 2022 VCAR33ALLO IND submission expected in the first half of 2023 Data from the Phase 1/2 NMDP-sponsored trial evaluating VCAR33AUTO expected in 2022 VOR33 + VCAR33 Treatment System IND submission expected following initial clinical data from the VBP101 clinical trial and the VCAR33ALLO program In-house manufacturing facility operational in 2022 About Vor BioVor Bio is a clinical-stage cell and genome engineering company that aims to change the standard of care for patients with blood cancers by engineering hematopoietic stem cells to enable targeted therapies post-transplant. For more information, visit: Forward-Looking StatementsThis press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The words "believe," "continue," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "plan," "potential," "project," "should," "target," "will," "would," and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, although not all forward-looking statements contain these identifying words. Forward-looking statements in this press release include Vor Bio's statements regarding its upcoming milestones, including expecting initial clinical data for VOR33 in the second half of 2022, expecting the submission of an IND for the VCAR33ALLO program in the first half of 2023, expecting data from the Phase 1/2 NMDP-sponsored trial evaluating VCAR33AUTO in 2022, expecting the submission of an IND for the VOR33 + VCAR33 Treatment System following initial clinical data from the VBP101 clinical trial and the VCAR33ALLO program and its in-house manufacturing facility being operational in 2022, and the cash, cash equivalents and investments being able to fund its operations into the fourth quarter of 2023. Vor Bio may not actually achieve the plans, intentions, or expectations disclosed in these forward-looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Actual results or events could differ materially from the plans, intentions and expectations disclosed in these forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, including: uncertainties inherent in the initiation and completion of preclinical studies and clinical trials and clinical development of Vor Bio's product candidates; availability and timing of results from preclinical studies and clinical trials; whether interim results from a clinical trial will be predictive of the final results of the trial or the results of future trials; expectations for regulatory approvals to conduct trials or to market products and availability of funding sufficient for its foreseeable and unforeseeable operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements. These and other risks are described in greater detail under the caption "Risk Factors" included in Vor Bio's most recent annual or quarterly report and in other reports it has filed or may file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Any forward-looking statements contained in ...Full story available on»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaMar 14th, 2022

Are Annuities Good Investments

When it comes to investing, what images first pop up. Is it the chaotic New York Stock Exchange trading floor? Maybe it’s the stock symbols you anxiously keep an eye on? Or, perhaps, it’s your annual mutual fund report that probably can help you drift off the sleep. Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and […] When it comes to investing, what images first pop up. Is it the chaotic New York Stock Exchange trading floor? Maybe it’s the stock symbols you anxiously keep an eye on? Or, perhaps, it’s your annual mutual fund report that probably can help you drift off the sleep. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Regardless of what you exactly think of when it comes to investing, I highly doubt that you would lump in annuities. And, for good reason. An annuity is a long-term policy contract between you and an insurance company, not an investment. At the same time, annuities sometimes have characteristics of investments. And, they may still be able to play a role in your investment portfolio. However, it’s ultimately determined by factors such as your investment goals, your age, lifestyle, risk tolerance, and time horizon for investing. So, are annuities good investments or not? Well, let’s help you answer that question. Annuities 101 The concept of annuities is confusing for many people. In fact, according to a Secure Retirement Institute (SRI) study, only 25% of consumers managed to pass an annuity knowledge quiz (70%). As such, this can make it difficult to determine whether or not an annuity is a good investment. With that in mind, before committing to an annuity, you should at least be familiar with the basics. In the simplest terms, an annuity is simply a contract between you and an insurance provider. With an annuity, you can protect your principal, generate lifetime income, plan for your legacy, and pay for long-term care costs. With annuities, you can make a premium payment to the issuer in one lump sum or through a series of over a period of time. Similarly, annuity payments can either be one lump sum payment or a series of recurring payments. Among the companies that sell annuities are insurance companies, banks, brokerage firms, and mutual fund companies. The different types of annuities. It’s also important to note that all annuities aren’t alike. In fact, there are many types of annuities, and they each have their own benefits and drawbacks. As soon as you know the types of annuities available, you can ask the right questions about them. A deferred annuity begins paying out after a certain period of time, whereas an immediate annuity pays out immediately. Depending on the individual’s needs, annuities can also be structured differently. You can choose to payout over the course of a lifetime, or you can choose to payout for a set period of time. There are also three other annuity structures; Fixed annuities. During the duration of a fixed-rate annuity, owners receive a fixed rate of interest. For example, every deposit you make with Due will earn you 3%. Therefore, this is the equivalent of a certificate of deposit. Despite the fact that the interest rate won’t change when the market performs well, it is a safe and predictable solution. Variable annuities. Variable annuities, in contrast to fixed annuities, fluctuate in value with the market. This makes it a riskier and less predictable option because gains and losses are based on performance. Fixed indexed annuities. This annuity combines the advantages of a variable and a fixed annuity in one package. As with a fixed annuity, it offers investors a guaranteed minimum rate of return. A fund may also follow a benchmark index, such as the S&P 500). If the market rises, the fund may enjoy greater gains. You should always read the fine print because caps, spreads, and participation rates will affect the upside. Why do people buy annuities? Most people decide to purchase an annuity because it offers the following perks; It can be comforting to have an annuity. This is especially true for retirees who are worried about stock market volatility or outliving their savings. It is possible to earn tax-deferred interest on an annuity. You can make unlimited annual contributions to an annuity — unlike 401(k)s or IRAs. When compared to traditional retirement accounts, annuities don’t require you to start withdrawing money at 70 ½. Generally, even if you haven’t withdrawn any money from your annuity, your beneficiaries can receive payments after you die. At the same time, there are some valid criticisms regarding annuities. Most notably, they can be expensive and complex. What’s more, they aren’t federally insured. And, if you make a withdrawal before the age of 59 ½, you can expect a 10% penalty from the IRS, as well as a surrender charge from the annuity company. When Annuities are Good Investments An annuity can be a good addition to your portfolio depending on your financial plan and your grasp of the key differences between annuities and equity investments. Remember, annuities are insurance while equity investments are growth vehicles. Nevertheless, the National Bureau of Economic Research states that “standard economic models of life-cycle spending patterns imply that the portfolio of a risk-averse individual should include a substantial portfolio share in life annuities as a hedge against uncertainty about length of life.” Combined with the notion that annuities are investments, rather than insurance, this statement indicates that annuities can be a valuable addition to a balanced portfolio. But, again, this will depend on your specific financial situation and investment goals. Need a starting point? First, you should understand how the different types of annuities and how they play a role in your investment strategy. After that, according to annuity expert Stan Haithcock, you can utilize the P.I.L.L. acronym. Premium protection Income for life Legacy Long-term care Annuities do not offer aggressive growth or capital appreciation, according to Haithcock. The growth potential of certain annuities may be higher than that of securities and other growth investments, though annuities do not provide comparable returns to securities. In this case, you may lose your premium, negating the benefit that first attracted you to annuities. Variable annuities, for example, have characteristics of both stocks and bonds, with the exception that they possess the same features as fixed annuities. These periodic payments, tax deferrals, and mutual fund growth potential. Due to their varying payments, variable annuities are classified as securities in the United States and regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Unlike variable annuities, fixed index annuities offer a guaranteed minimum return. That makes them not as risky, but still riskier than a fixed annuity. When Annuities are Bad Investments Traditionally, annuities have provided higher returns than other conservative investments. The reason is that they’re backed by insurance companies. Why, then, do annuities make such poor investments? In the event of early withdrawal, annuities incur penalties. If you break an annuity, you’ll be subject to penalties. The reason is that they’re long-term contracts designed to last between 3 and 20 years. However, annuities may permit penalty-free withdrawals. Annuitants who withdraw more than the allowable amount will, however, incur penalties. Annuities can earn little interest or none at all. Certain annuities are not intended to provide sufficient growth potential. Therefore, you retire with less money in the retirement plan since its growth is too slow. Certain annuities do not keep up with inflation. Investing in annuities offers a steady income for life. Annuities do not all provide inflation-adjusted income, however. The earlier you start your lifetime income, the less money you will have in later years since the cost of living will increase too quickly. Your beneficiaries might not receive a death benefit from the annuity. In certain annuities, annuitants may choose to receive a higher monthly income in place of a death benefit for their beneficiaries. There is only limited liquidity offered by annuities, and sometimes none. You might only be able to access a limited amount of liquidity each year in an annuity without incurring penalties or fees. In some cases, annuities provide no liquidity at all. Fees can be high in investment-based annuities. In most cases, annuities don’t come cheap thanks to fees. As such, a cheaper alternative could be just as good. In order to withdraw annuity funds, you must be at least 59 ½ years old. If income is taken from an annuity too early, the IRS can impose a penalty. How Do Annuities Compare to Other Retirement Options? In terms of retirement planning, you have a number of possibilities. Generally, an annuity is a solid retirement planning option because it has specific benefits, like tax-deferred growth and guaranteed income. An asset portfolio for retirement should, however, be diversified consisting of various financial instruments like the following. Certificates of Deposit (CDs) Certificates of Deposit (CDs) are similar to annuities in the sense that they are very low-risk investments. And, the interest rates on most CDs are guaranteed. An important difference between CDs and fixed annuities is their tax treatment. CD earnings are usually taxed as capital gains by the IRS. Meanwhile, annuity payments are taxable as ordinary income. Furthermore, CD income is taxable in the year it is earned, regardless of whether the funds stay in the CD. On the other hand, annuities offer tax deferral, so you will not pay taxes until you withdraw your earnings. Annuities are typically more advantageous than CDs. CDs, however, have the advantage of being offered for short- and medium-term times. For investors wishing to grow their money in a shorter timeframe, CD’s have the edge. Also, this makes CDs more liquid than annuites. 401(k)s This is an employer-sponsored plan for retirement. Every month, a portion of your paycheck is deducted and invested. In some cases, they even contribute directly to your account. But, how are 401(k)s different from annuities? 401(k)s are employer-sponsored, so if your company does not offer one, you may not be able to participate. The amount you can contribute is limited as well. If you’re trying to build up a significant retirement fund, that’s not the best strategy. In addition, your earnings are tied to your asset selection. As such, you might earn very little or even lose money depending on the performance of your portfolio. Annuities, by contrast, aren’t tied to a specific employer — everyone can partake. Additionally, contributions aren’t capped. Additionally, you’ll receive steady earnings if you purchase a fixed annuity. IRAs Some people confuse individual retirement accounts (IRAs) with annuities, but they aren’t the same. IRAs do not qualify as financial products or investments. Rather, an IRA account simply holds your retirement savings and investments. You can also hold stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and even annuities via IRAs. Tax advantages are given to these accounts by the IRS since they are intended for retirement savings. These accounts are subject to certain rules, however. According to the IRS, you must withdraw your money by a certain date, know what you are allowed to invest in, and how much you can contribute. Another downside? IRAs, like 401(k)s, have contribution limits. If you recall, this is not true of annuities. In addition, IRAs do not have a guaranteed minimum interest rate, as fixed annuities do. Furthermore, they cannot guarantee retirement income. For investors who are looking for tax-advantaged retirement savings and investments, IRAs are an excellent option. Those who want a steady retirement income or to ensure their retirement savings grow should consider annuities. Stock Mutual Funds You can invest in stocks using mutual funds rather than choosing individual stocks. Instead, money managers are responsible for choosing stocks within each mutual fund and generally select a diverse group of holdings to maximize interest rate returns. Unlike annuities, mutual funds can lose money, and they don’t guarantee a minimum rate of return. In addition, they charge annual fees called “loads,” which is not the case with most annuities. Stocks The market has averaged a 10% return since 1976. As such, this makes stocks a valuable component of an overall retirement plan. TD Ameritrade and Schwab are just two examples of public platforms that allow you to invest directly in stocks. And, as a stockholder, you become a partial owner of the company. It is, however, time-consuming and risky to buy stocks. Unlike minimum returns and state guarantee associations, there are no provisions for safety. Social Security Some retirees receive supplemental income from social security, a government program. Although this is a useful assistance program, we can’t stress the word “assistance” enough. In other words, Social Security is not meant to be the sole source of an individual’s retirement income. In the first place, not everyone is eligible to receive social security benefits. What’s more, many people receive only about 40% of what they earned before they retired. As a consequence, you might struggle to survive on that amount. In order to maintain their standard of living in retirement, many retirees have additional savings. With that in mind, an annuity can provide supplemental income to what you receive from Social Security. Does It Make Sense to Add an Annuity to Your Retirement Portfolio? You may want to consider an annuity if you are consistently making the maximum contribution to your 401(k), IRA, or other retirement accounts, as it may provide you with another way to save for retirement. You may be able to find steady income in this way if you are nearing retirement. If you choose to purchase an annuity, be sure you know exactly what you’re getting into. Different annuities invest and payout funds in different ways. Also, annuity charges tend to have higher fees than a 401(k) — or other retirement investments that compose your portfolio. Annuity Invest FAQs Are there disparities between the potential sources of retirement income and retirement expenses? Assess projected retirement expenses and unexpected costs (e.g., medical expenses) against retirement savings and portfolio investment mix. Retirement expenses may exceed income in retirement, in which case an annuity might be useful. In the event that you outlive your savings, an annuity may provide some protection. By paying into an annuity, you receive a guaranteed income stream from the insurance company. In some types of annuities, the guaranteed income continues throughout the annuity owner’s life despite market fluctuations. You may be able to apply for an annuity to help fill gaps in your retirement income plan with the help of a financial professional. What kind of annuity is it? Depending on the type of annuity you choose, you’ll experience different volatility levels and receive different returns. Every investor must analyze risk and return, so this is an important consideration. Generally, you will choose between a fixed, variable, or indexed annuity. Are annuities suitable as investments for elderly people? As an elderly person’s principal and interest rate are protected, fixed and fixed indexed annuities deserve consideration. In addition, beneficiaries can avoid probate by receiving a death benefit. Moreover, nursing homes, assisted living facilities, and home health care expenses are a fraction of the cost when long-term care annuities are purchased. And, for married couples with an elderly spouse who needs long-term care, Medicaid annuities can be an excellent investment. This is because the married couple can still have assets while drawing Medicaid benefits. As for variable annuities, they might not make sense for the elderly. Mainly, this is because they can lose money if the market performs poorly. And, due to the fact that the contract owner must surrender control over their money, immediate annuities also don’t make sense. Do additional tax-deferred options make sense? Retirement savings vehicles like IRAs and 401(k)s provide tax-deferred growth of money without triggering an income tax bill until the money is withdrawn. You can also invest in annuities to earn tax-deferred income in retirement. Take deferred annuities as an example. There are funded with after-tax money. That means any growth that’s generated is tax-deferred until it’s withdrawn. It’s also taxable as ordinary income. And, always remember, there may be a 10% federal tax penalty for withdrawals from an annuity prior to age 59 ½. Work with a financial professional to identify the best tax-favored options for your retirement savings. How can you reduce the impact of negative market performance within your financial portfolio? Market downturns can significantly impact retirement savings, especially early in retirement when people are beginning to withdraw. Afterward, it may be difficult to regain the account value – and the account value may never catch up to what it would have been if the market had not fallen. Annuities can mitigate the volatility of the markets. How? Because annuities typically guarantee a minimum annual return or minimum income rate. Even better this is regardless of market performance. Or, at the very least it can cushion the account value from a portion of market losses. It is impossible to find one solution for planning for retirement income. If you are using an annuity as part of your overall financial plan, your financial advisor can assist you. Article by John Rampton, Due About the Author John Rampton is an entrepreneur and connector. When he was 23 years old while attending the University of Utah he was hurt in a construction accident. His leg was snapped in half. He was told by 13 doctors he would never walk again. Over the next 12 months he had several surgeries, stem cell injections and learned how to walk again. During this time he studied and mastered how to make money work for you, not against you. He has since taught thousands through books, courses and written over 5000 articles online about finance, entrepreneurship and productivity. He has been recognized as the Top Online Influencers in the World by Entrepreneur Magazine, Finance Expert by Time and Annuity Expert by Nasdaq. He is the Founder and CEO of Due. Updated on Feb 24, 2022, 1:11 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkFeb 24th, 2022

Risks To The Bullish Thesis In 2022

Risks To The Bullish Thesis In 2022 Authored by Lance Roberts via, The market outlook for 2022 remains bullish, as Wall Street veterans suggest that Fed tightening won’t hurt stocks bullish advance. From JP Morgan’s target of 5050 to BMO’s forecast of 5300 on the S&P index, there is little concern that stocks could be lower next year. Such is undoubtedly understandable after more than a decade of advancing markets, with the last 3-years seeing the market advance more than 50%. The market has weathered 20% corrections from a Fed “taper tantrum” to a 35% rout from a pandemic-driven shutdown. Each time the market rebounded quickly as the Fed jumped into the fray providing accommodative policies. Chart Courtesy of SimpleVisor Our market outlook for 2022 is a bit more conservative than much of Wall Street. While 2022 could be another bullish year for stocks, as bull markets are tough to kill, my job as a portfolio manager is to ensure our clients don’t suffer a permanent impairment to their investment capital. Given that our client’s portfolios remain allocated toward equity risk, our market outlook focuses on what could go wrong. Such seems a more pragmatic approach than just “hoping” things go right. While we should always “hope for clear skies and calm seas,” a captain navigates away from the risks to his vessel. So, what are the risks in 2022 that we should steer clear of? Market Outlook – The Risk To The Bullish Thesis Over the last few years in particular, as valuations have become more extreme, the consistently bullish media continue to invent rationals for higher stock prices. Low interest rates justify high valuations. There is no alternative (T.I.N.A.) Monetary policy supports higher prices. Low inflation supports higher prices Notably, those rationalizations appeared correct due to the massive flood of monetary and fiscal policy during that period. So, as we head into 2022, here is a shortlist of the things we are either currently hedging portfolios against or will potentially need to in the future. Economic growth slows as year-over-year comparisons become far more challenging. Inflationary pressuresremain more persistent than anticipated which impedes consumption and compresses profit margins. Rising wage and input costs reduce corporate earnings disappointing earnings growth expectations. Valuations begin to weigh on investor confidence. Corporate profits weaken due to slower economic growth, reduced monetary interventions, and rising costs. Consumer confidence continues to weaken as consumption is crimped by rising costs and slowing economic growth. Interest rates rise which trips up heavily leveraged consumers and corporations. A credit-related event causes a market liquidity crunch. The Fed makes a “policy error” by tightening monetary accommodation as the economy slows suddenly. A mid-term election resulting in a broad sweep by Republicans in both houses further reduce liqudity. The “housing bubble 2.0” implodes. Corporate stock buybacks, which accounted for 40% of the market’s appreciation since 2011, slow as companies begin to hoard cash as the economy slows. The massive inflows into US equity markets over the last year slows. The avalanche of M&A activity, IPO’s, and SPAC’s of poor quality companies results in negative outcomes. Market breadth remains incredibly week, with5-stocks supporting the major market. I could go on, but you get the idea. You Can’t Have It Both Ways While analysts on Wall Street are confident the bull market will continue uninterrupted into 2022, there are more than enough risks to derail that market outlook. Importantly, none of these independently suggest a significant correction is imminent. However, the risk is that they will undermine the bullish “psychology” of the market. The critical component of the “bullish thesis” has been the psychology of the “Fed put.” Regardless of valuation levels, deteriorating fundamentals, or simple logic, the excuse for continuing to take on increasing levels of risk was “Don’t fight the Fed.” However, therein lies the irony as we head into 2022, the Fed is expected to tighten policy rather quickly. If the logic of rising prices was “don’t fight the Fed’s liquidity,” the argument now is to “fight the Fed’s tightening regime.” As is always the case, you can’t have it both ways. A Reversal Of Fortune? As noted, the unexpected “pandemic-driven economic shutdown” sent the Federal Reserve and Government into fiscal and monetary policy overdrive. Such led to an unimaginable influx of $5 trillion into the economy, sending the “money supply” surging well above the long-term exponential growth trend. The importance of that “sea of liquidity” is both positive and negative. In the short term, that liquidity supports economic growth, the surge in retail sales into this year, and the explosive recovery in corporate earnings. That liquidity is also flowing into record corporate stock buybacks, retail investing, and a surge in private equity. With all that liquidity sloshing around, it is of no surprise we have seen a near-record surge in the annualized rate of change of the S&P 500 index. However, as stated, there is a dark side to that liquidity. With the Democrats struggling to pass another stimulus bill, a looming debt ceiling, and the Fed beginning to “taper” their bond purchases, liquidity will reverse next year. As shown below, if we look at the annual rate of change in the S&P 500 compared to our “measure of liquidity” (M2 less GDP), it suggests stocks could be in trouble heading into next year. While not a perfect correlation, it is high enough to warrant attention. With global central banks cutting back on liquidity, the Government providing less, and inflationary pressures taking care of the rest, it is worth considering increasing risk-management practices. Sailing In Unchartered Waters Returning to our “navigation” metaphor, trying to predict what will happen in 2022 is a futile exercise. There are too many variables that can occur that could change outcomes for the better or worse. As I discussed previously, risk management is a process: First, the only certainty is that there is no certainty. Second, every decision, as a consequence, is a matter of weighing probabilities. Third, despite uncertainty we must decide and we must act. And lastly, we need to judge decisions not only on the results, but on how they were made. If there are no absolutes, then all decisions become matters of judging the probability of different outcomes, and the costs and benefits of each. Then, on that basis, you can make a good decision. Managing risk does not mean “being all in cash;” it only means navigating the risks that could cause permanent impairment to your financial plans. If nothing happens and 2022 is another bullish year. Fantastic. Such will make my job very easy. However, if an unexpected storm appears on the horizon, taking some actions to navigate safety will provide a much better outcome. There is no value in “going down with the ship.” Tyler Durden Wed, 01/05/2022 - 11:27.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJan 5th, 2022