Demand for homes is surging at Pierce County mega-development, but builders face supply shortages

At the Tehaleh planned community in Bonney Lake, costs for supplies such as lumber are soaring and eating into builders' margins......»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsMay 26th, 2021

Power Supply Shock Looms: "Global Markets Will Feel The Pinch Very Soon" Of China"s Next Crisis

Power Supply Shock Looms: "Global Markets Will Feel The Pinch Very Soon" Of China's Next Crisis Distracted by the 'grandness' of the collapse of China's property development market, many have missed the fact that China faces a crisis that could directly hit Asia's economy just as hard as a financial collapse - a nationwide power supply shock. After ramping up its coal-based power production earlier in the year, it appears Beijing has suddenly grown a conscience over its emissions and the 'average joe' could be about to feel the pain of that decision. Climate change facts: Chinese CO2 emissions are more than double those of the US, and greater than US and EU combined. — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 6, 2020 As Bloomberg reports, the crackdown on power consumption is being driven by rising demand for electricity and surging coal and gas prices as well as strict targets from Beijing to cut emissions. It’s coming first to the country’s mammoth manufacturing industries: from aluminum smelters to textiles producers and soybean processing plants, factories are being ordered to curb activity or - in some instances - shut altogether. "With market attention now laser-focused on Evergrande and Beijing’s unprecedented curbs on the property sector, another major supply-side shock may have been underestimated or even missed,” Nomura Holding Inc. analysts including Ting Lu warned in a note, predicting China’s economy will shrink this quarter. As a reminder, China pollutes more than the US and all developed countries combined... More problematic for Greta and her pals, between the years 2000 and 2020, the amount of electricity generated by burning coal increased more than four-fold in China, hitting around 4,600 terrawatt hours in the past year. You will find more infographics at Statista As the scene below suggests, this is not the first time China has faced winter power demand surges (which prompted many to turn to diesel generators to plug the shortages of power from the electricity grid). However, this year is different. The danger is that, as Zeng Hao, chief expert at consultancy Shanxi Jinzheng Energy, warns: government policies will significantly limit the energy industry’s potential to increase production to meet the demand increase. 2021's worsening power crunch in China reflects three specific factors: 1) Extremely tight energy supply globally (that's already seen chaos engulf markets in Europe); 2) The economic rebound from COVID lockdowns that has boosted demand from households and businesses (as lower investment by miners and drillers constrains production); and 3) President Xi Jinping tries to ensure blue skies at the Winter Olympics in Beijing next February (showing the international community for the first time that he's serious about de-carbonizing the economy). Simply put, it is the third factor - which is all of its own making - that has raised the risk of a severe shortage of coal and gas - used to heat homes and power factories - this winter; and more ominously, expectations of the need to ration power to those deemed worthy. “The power curbs will ripple through and impact global markets,” Nomura’s Ting said. “Very soon the global markets will feel the pinch of a shortage of supply from textiles, toys to machine parts.” As we noted earlier in the year, China needs to shutter 600 coal plants to meet its emissions goals of net zero greenhouse emissions by 2060. If Xi's recent actions in the interests of "common prosperity" are really about forestalling social unrest, we suspect his commitment to meeting self-imposed carbon emissions targets may quickly evaporate as the Chinese people are unlikely to stand sustained black-outs for long without upheaval. Tyler Durden Sun, 09/26/2021 - 20:30.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nyt7 hr. 13 min. ago

Multifamily Activity Bolsters Housing Starts, but Single-Family Production Low

Strong multifamily activity pushed overall housing starts up in August but single-family starts have dipped in response to continued supply chain and labor challenges. Total starts increased 3.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.62 million units, according to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. […] The post Multifamily Activity Bolsters Housing Starts, but Single-Family Production Low appeared first on RISMedia. Strong multifamily activity pushed overall housing starts up in August but single-family starts have dipped in response to continued supply chain and labor challenges. Total starts increased 3.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.62 million units, according to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The August reading of 1.62 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 2.8% to a 1.08 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, but are up 23.8% year-to-date. The multifamily sector increased 20.6% to a 539,000 pace. The breakdown: Housing Starts: 1.62 million (+3.9%% month-over-month, +17.4% year-over-year) Multifamily Starts: 530,000 Single-Family Starts: 1,054,000 Building Permits: 1.73 million (+6.0% month-over-month, +13.5% year-over-year) Multifamily Permits: 632,000 Single-Family Permits: 1,048,000 Completions: 1.33 million (-4.5% month-over-month, +9.4% year-over-year) Multifamily Completions: 356,000 Single-Family Completions: 971,000 Regional year-to-date data: Midwest: +14% South: +20.2% West:  +23.9% Northeast: +35.96% What the industry is saying: “Total housing starts and housing permits made decent gains in August compared to the month prior, but the focus was on multifamily units. Single-family housing starts fell 2.8% while single-family housing permits, a gauge for future activity, were essentially unchanged after falling in the past four months. Multifamily starts, comprising mostly apartments, increased by 20.6% while multifamily permits rose 15.8%. “There is certainly a housing shortage, as reflected in the low inventory of homes for sale and in low rental vacancy rates. However, a shift toward rental buildings means less access to homeownership over the long run and the accompanying opportunity for wealth gains. Home-price gains will surely moderate after experiencing gains of nearly 20% in the first half of this year. But given the housing shortage and the lack of big increases in the construction of single-family homes, home prices will continue to move higher than most people’s income gains. That’s good news for property owners, but bad news for those wanting to become homeowners.” — Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS® “Single-family construction is normalizing at more sustainable levels after an increase in building material pricing. Demand remains strong, but the market is facing increasing housing affordability issues after a run-up in new and existing home prices. Multifamily construction increased in August, with NAHB expecting a solid gain for apartment construction in 2021 after a slight decline last year.” — Chuck Fowke, Chairman, National Association of Home Builders “More inventory is coming for a market that continues to face a housing deficit. The number of single-family homes under construction in August-702,000-is the highest since the Great Recession and is 32.7% higher than a year ago. While some building materials, like lumber, have seen easing prices, delivery delays and a lack of skilled labor and building lots continue to hold the market back.” — Robert Dietz, Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders “The pace of new construction reflected homebuilder shifts toward higher margin projects amid fluctuating costs. As August saw home builder sentiment dip over concerns of slipping buyer traffic and sales, builders sought permits for more multifamily projects. However, this week’s September sentiment numbers show a rebound is in the works, as residential construction companies work through their order backlog and look forward to increased traffic heading into 2022. Real estate markets are grappling with a decade of underbuilding, which has pushed this year’s buyers to pay record-high prices for a tight number of homes for sale. As millennials—the largest generation in our country’s history—came of age during the last 10 years, new construction volume lagged, creating a shortage of 5.2 million new homes. Moreover, completed new homes have been mostly aimed at the premium segment of the market, with the share of new-home sales priced at or below $300,000 dropping from 43% of total in 2018, to 32% in the first half of 2021. “For builders, demographics offer tremendous potential, as the millennial generation is in its peak household formation years. In a promising recent development for builders and buyers alike, California’s recent legislative move to expand access to more homes through relaxing single-family zoning standards could serve as a model for other states and open the door for an influx of affordable new construction supply.” — George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research,® “New-home starts recovered in August, following a brief period of decline in July due to supply chain issues. Additionally, the backlog of homes authorized but not started has grown to record levels over the late spring and summer, and as builders are able to secure materials and labor it is not surprising to see starts begin to pick back up. This backlog is a promising metric, and while some of the pipeline of units may be canceled, it is likely that a good share of the backlog will make it to market due to robust housing demand.” — Kelly Mangold, Principal, RCLCO Real Estate Consulting The post Multifamily Activity Bolsters Housing Starts, but Single-Family Production Low appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaSep 21st, 2021

30 Facts You Need To Know: A COVID Cribsheet

30 Facts You Need To Know: A COVID Cribsheet Authored by Kit Knightly via, You asked for it, so we made it. A collection of all the arguments you’ll ever need. We get a lot of e-mails and private messages along these lines “do you have a source for X?” or “can you point me to mask studies?” or “I know I saw a graph for mortality, but I can’t find it anymore”. And we understand, it’s been a long 18 months, and there are so many statistics and numbers to try and keep straight in your head. So, to deal with all these requests, we decided to make a bullet-pointed and sourced list for all the key points. A one-stop-shop. Here are key facts and sources about the alleged “pandemic”, that will help you get a grasp on what has happened to the world since January 2020, and help you enlighten any of your friends who might be still trapped in the New Normal fog: “Covid deaths” – Lockdowns – PCR Tests – “asymptomatic infection” – Ventilators – Masks – Vaccines – Deception & Foreknowledge *  *  * PART I: “COVID DEATHS” & MORTALITY 1. The survival rate of “Covid” is over 99%. Government medical experts went out of their way to underline, from the beginning of the pandemic, that the vast majority of the population are not in any danger from Covid. Almost all studies on the infection-fatality ratio (IFR) of Covid have returned results between 0.04% and 0.5%. Meaning Covid’s survival rate is at least 99.5%. * 2. There has been NO unusual excess mortality. The press has called 2020 the UK’s “deadliest year since world war two”, but this is misleading because it ignores the massive increase in the population since that time. A more reasonable statistical measure of mortality is Age-Standardised Mortality Rate (ASMR): By this measure, 2020 isn’t even the worst year for mortality since 2000, In fact since 1943 only 9 years have been better than 2020. Similarly, in the US the ASMR for 2020 is only at 2004 levels: For a detailed breakdown of how Covid affected mortality across Western Europe and the US click here. What increases in mortality we have seen could be attributable to non-Covid causes [facts 7, 9 & 19]. * 3. “Covid death” counts are artificially inflated. Countries around the globe have been defining a “Covid death” as a “death by any cause within 28/30/60 days of a positive test”. Healthcare officials from Italy, Germany, the UK, US, Northern Ireland and others have all admitted to this practice: Removing any distinction between dying of Covid, and dying of something else after testing positive for Covid will naturally lead to over-counting of “Covid deaths”. British pathologist Dr John Lee was warning of this “substantial over-estimate” as early as last spring. Other mainstream sources have reported it, too. Considering the huge percentage of “asymptomatic” Covid infections [14], the well-known prevalence of serious comorbidities [fact 4] and the potential for false-positive tests [fact 18], this renders the Covid death numbers an extremely unreliable statistic. * 4. The vast majority of covid deaths have serious comorbidities. In March 2020, the Italian government published statistics showing 99.2% of their “Covid deaths” had at least one serious comorbidity. These included cancer, heart disease, dementia, Alzheimer’s, kidney failure and diabetes (among others). Over 50% of them had three or more serious pre-existing conditions. This pattern has held up in all other countries over the course of the “pandemic”. An October 2020 FOIA request to the UK’s ONS revealed less than 10% of the official “Covid death” count at that time had Covid as the sole cause of death. * 5. Average age of “Covid death” is greater than the average life expectancy. The average age of a “Covid death” in the UK is 82.5 years. In Italy it’s 86. Germany, 83. Switzerland, 86. Canada, 86. The US, 78, Australia, 82. In almost all cases the median age of a “Covid death” is higher than the national life expectancy. As such, for most of the world, the “pandemic” has had little-to-no impact on life expectancy. Contrast this with the Spanish flu, which saw a 28% drop in life expectancy in the US in just over a year. [source] * 6. Covid mortality exactly mirrors the natural mortality curve. Statistical studies from the UK and India have shown that the curve for “Covid death” follows the curve for expected mortality almost exactly: The risk of death “from Covid” follows, almost exactly, your background risk of death in general. The small increase for some of the older age groups can be accounted for by other factors.[facts 7, 9 & 19] * 7. There has been a massive increase in the use of “unlawful” DNRs. Watchdogs and government agencies have reported huge increases in the use of Do Not Resuscitate Orders (DNRs) over the last twenty months. In the US, hospitals considered “universal DNRs” for any patient who tested positive for Covid, and whistleblowing nurses have admitted the DNR system was abused in New York. In the UK there was an “unprecdented” rise in “illegal” DNRs for disabled people, GP surgeries sent out letters to non-terminal patients recommending they sign DNR orders, whilst other doctors signed “blanket DNRs” for entire nursing homes. A study done by Sheffield Univerisity found over one-third of all “suspected” Covid patients had a DNR attached to their file within 24 hours of hospital admission. Blanket use of coerced or illegal DNR orders could account for any increases in mortality in 2020/21.[Facts 2 & 6] *  *  * PART II: LOCKDOWNS 8. Lockdowns do not prevent the spread of disease. There is little to no evidence lockdowns have any impact on limiting “Covid deaths”. If you compare regions that locked down to regions that did not, you can see no pattern at all. “Covid deaths” in Florida (no lockdown) vs California (lockdown) “Covid deaths” in Sweden (no lockdown) vs UK (lockdown) * 9. Lockdowns kill people. There is strong evidence that lockdowns – through social, economic and other public health damage – are deadlier than the “virus”. Dr David Nabarro, World Health Organization special envoy for Covid-19 described lockdowns as a “global catastrophe” in October 2020: We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of the virus[…] it seems we may have a doubling of world poverty by next year. We may well have at least a doubling of child malnutrition […] This is a terrible, ghastly global catastrophe.” A UN report from April 2020 warned of 100,000s of children being killed by the economic impact of lockdowns, while tens of millions more face possible poverty and famine. Unemployment, poverty, suicide, alcoholism, drug use and other social/mental health crises are spiking all over the world. While missed and delayed surgeries and screenings are going to see increased mortality from heart disease, cancer et al. in the near future. The impact of lockdown would account for the small increases in excess mortality [Facts 2 & 6] * 10. Hospitals were never unusually over-burdened. the main argument used to defend lockdowns is that “flattening the curve” would prevent a rapid influx of cases and protect healthcare systems from collapse. But most healthcare systems were never close to collapse at all. In March 2020 it was reported that hospitals in Spain and Italy were over-flowing with patients, but this happens every flu season. In 2017 Spanish hospitals were at 200% capacity, and 2015 saw patients sleeping in corridors. A paper JAMA paper from March 2020 found that Italian hospitals “typically run at 85-90% capacity in the winter months”. In the UK, the NHS is regularly stretched to breaking point over the winter. As part of their Covid policy, the NHS announced in Spring of 2020 that they would be “re-organizing hospital capacity in new ways to treat Covid and non-Covid patients separately” and that “as result hospitals will experience capacity pressures at lower overall occupancy rates than would previously have been the case.” This means they removed thousands of beds. During an alleged deadly pandemic, they reduced the maximum occupancy of hospitals. Despite this, the NHS never felt pressure beyond your typical flu season, and at times actually had 4x more empty beds than normal. In both the UK and US millions were spent on temporary emergency hospitals that were never used. *  *  * PART III: PCR TESTS 11. PCR tests were not designed to diagnose illness. The Reverse-Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) test is described in the media as the “gold standard” for Covid diagnosis. But the Nobel Prize-winning inventor of the process never intended it to be used as a diagnostic tool, and said so publicly: PCR is just a process that allows you to make a whole lot of something out of something. It doesn’t tell you that you are sick, or that the thing that you ended up with was going to hurt you or anything like that.” * 12. PCR Tests have a history of being inaccurate and unreliable. The “gold standard” PCR tests for Covid are known to produce a lot of false-positive results, by reacting to DNA material that is not specific to Sars-Cov-2. A Chinese study found the same patient could get two different results from the same test on the same day. In Germany, tests are known to have reacted to common cold viruses. A 2006 study found PCR tests for one virus responded to other viruses too. In 2007, a reliance on PCR tests resulted in an “outbreak” of Whooping Cough that never actually existed. Some tests in the US even reacted to the negative control sample. The late President of Tanzania, John Magufuli, submitted samples goat, pawpaw and motor oil for PCR testing, all came back positive for the virus. As early as February of 2020 experts were admitting the test was unreliable. Dr Wang Cheng, president of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences told Chinese state television “The accuracy of the tests is only 30-50%”. The Australian government’s own website claimed “There is limited evidence available to assess the accuracy and clinical utility of available COVID-19 tests.” And a Portuguese court ruled that PCR tests were “unreliable” and should not be used for diagnosis. You can read detailed breakdowns of the failings of PCR tests here, here and here. * 13. The CT values of the PCR tests are too high. PCR tests are run in cycles, the number of cycles you use to get your result is known as your “cycle threshold” or CT value. Kary Mullis said: “If you have to go more than 40 cycles[…]there is something seriously wrong with your PCR.” The MIQE PCR guidelines agree, stating: “[CT] values higher than 40 are suspect because of the implied low efficiency and generally should not be reported,” Dr Fauci himself even admitted anything over 35 cycles is almost never culturable. Dr Juliet Morrison, virologist at the University of California, Riverside, told the New York Times: Any test with a cycle threshold above 35 is too sensitive…I’m shocked that people would think that 40 [cycles] could represent a positive…A more reasonable cutoff would be 30 to 35″. In the same article Dr Michael Mina, of the Harvard School of Public Health, said the limit should be 30, and the author goes on to point out that reducing the CT from 40 to 30 would have reduced “covid cases” in some states by as much as 90%. The CDC’s own data suggests no sample over 33 cycles could be cultured, and Germany’s Robert Koch Institute says nothing over 30 cycles is likely to be infectious. Despite this, it is known almost all the labs in the US are running their tests at least 37 cycles and sometimes as high as 45. The NHS “standard operating procedure” for PCR tests rules set the limit at 40 cycles. Based on what we know about the CT values, the majority of PCR test results are at best questionable. * 14. The World Health Organization (Twice) Admitted PCR tests produced false positives. In December 2020 WHO put out a briefing memo on the PCR process instructing labs to be wary of high CT values causing false positive results: when specimens return a high Ct value, it means that many cycles were required to detect virus. In some circumstances, the distinction between background noise and actual presence of the target virus is difficult to ascertain. Then, in January 2021, the WHO released another memo, this time warning that “asymptomatic” positive PCR tests should be re-tested because they might be false positives: Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology. * 15. The scientific basis for Covid tests is questionable. The genome of the Sars-Cov-2 virus was supposedly sequenced by Chinese scientists in December 2019, then published on January 10th 2020. Less than two weeks later, German virologists (Christian Drosten et al.) had allegedly used the genome to create assays for PCR tests. They wrote a paper, Detection of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by real-time RT-PCR, which was submitted for publication on January 21st 2020, and then accepted on January 22nd. Meaning the paper was allegedly “peer-reviewed” in less than 24 hours. A process that typically takes weeks. Since then, a consortium of over forty life scientists has petitioned for the withdrawal of the paper, writing a lengthy report detailing 10 major errors in the paper’s methodology. They have also requested the release of the journal’s peer-review report, to prove the paper really did pass through the peer-review process. The journal has yet to comply. The Corman-Drosten assays are the root of every Covid PCR test in the world. If the paper is questionable, every PCR test is also questionable. *  *  * PART IV: “ASYMPTOMATIC INFECTION” 16. The majority of Covid infections are “asymptomatic”. From as early as March 2020, studies done in Italy were suggesting 50-75% of positive Covid tests had no symptoms. Another UK study from August 2020 found as much as 86% of “Covid patients” experienced no viral symptoms at all. It is literally impossible to tell the difference between an “asymptomatic case” and a false-positive test result. * 17. There is very little evidence supporting the alleged danger of “asymptomatic transmission”. In June 2020, Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said: From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,” A meta-analysis of Covid studies, published by Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) in December 2020, found that asymptomatic carriers had a less than 1% chance of infecting people within their household. Another study, done on influenza in 2009, found: …limited evidence to suggest the importance of [asymptomatic] transmission. The role of asymptomatic or presymptomatic influenza-infected individuals in disease transmission may have been overestimated…” Given the known flaws of the PCR tests, many “asymptomatic cases” may be false positives.[fact 14] *  *  * PART V: VENTILATORS 18. Ventilation is NOT a treatment for respiratory viruses. Mechanical ventilation is not, and never has been, recommended treatment for respiratory infection of any kind. In the early days of the pandemic, many doctors came forward questioning the use of ventilators to treat “Covid”. Writing in The Spectator, Dr Matt Strauss stated: Ventilators do not cure any disease. They can fill your lungs with air when you find yourself unable to do so yourself. They are associated with lung diseases in the public’s consciousness, but this is not in fact their most common or most appropriate application. German Pulmonologist Dr Thomas Voshaar, chairman of Association of Pneumatological Clinics said: When we read the first studies and reports from China and Italy, we immediately asked ourselves why intubation was so common there. This contradicted our clinical experience with viral pneumonia. Despite this, the WHO, CDC, ECDC and NHS all “recommended” Covid patients be ventilated instead of using non-invasive methods. This was not a medical policy designed to best treat the patients, but rather to reduce the hypothetical spread of Covid by preventing patients from exhaling aerosol droplets. * 19. Ventilators killed people. Putting someone who is suffering from influenza, pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or any other condition which restricts breathing or affects the lungs, will not alleviate any of those symptoms. In fact, it will almost certainly make it worse, and will kill many of them. Intubation tubes are a source of potential a infection known as “ventilator-associated pneumonia”, which studies show affects up to 28% of all people put on ventilators, and kills 20-55% of those infected. Mechanical ventilation is also damaging to the physical structure of the lungs, resulting in “ventilator-induced lung injury”, which can dramatically impact quality of life, and even result in death. Experts estimate 40-50% of ventilated patients die, regardless of their disease. Around the world, between 66 and 86% of all “Covid patients” put on ventilators died. According to the “undercover nurse”, ventilators were being used so improperly in New York, they were destroying patients’ lungs: This policy was negligence at best, and potentially deliberate murder at worst. This misuse of ventilators could account for any increase in mortality in 2020/21 [Facts 2 & 6] *  *  * PART VI: MASKS 20. Masks don’t work. At least a dozen scientific studies have shown that masks do nothing to stop the spread of respiratory viruses. One meta-analysis published by the CDC in May 2020 found “no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks”. Another study with over 8000 subjects found masks “did not seem to be effective against laboratory-confirmed viral respiratory infections nor against clinical respiratory infection.” There are literally too many to quote them all, but you can read them: [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] Or read a summary by SPR here. While some studies have been done claiming to show mask do work for Covid, they are all seriously flawed. One relied on self-reported surveys as data. Another was so badly designed a panel of experts demand it be withdrawn. A third was withdrawn after its predictions proved entirely incorrect. The WHO commissioned their own meta-analysis in the Lancet, but that study looked only at N95 masks and only in hospitals. [For full run down on the bad data in this study click here.] Aside from scientific evidence, there’s plenty of real-world evidence that masks do nothing to halt the spread of disease. For example, North Dakota and South Dakota had near-identical case figures, despite one having a mask-mandate and the other not: In Kansas, counties without mask mandates actually had fewer Covid “cases” than counties with mask mandates. And despite masks being very common in Japan, they had their worst flu outbreak in decades in 2019. * 21. Masks are bad for your health. Wearing a mask for long periods, wearing the same mask more than once, and other aspects of cloth masks can be bad for your health. A long study on the detrimental effects of mask-wearing was recently published by the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Dr. James Meehan reported in August 2020 he was seeing increases in bacterial pneumonia, fungal infections, facial rashes . Masks are also known to contain plastic microfibers, which damage the lungs when inhaled and may be potentially carcinogenic. Childen wearing masks encourages mouth-breathing, which results in facial deformities. People around the world have passed out due to CO2 poisoning while wearing their masks, and some children in China even suffered sudden cardiac arrest. * 22. Masks are bad for the planet. Millions upon millions of disposable masks have been used per month for over a year. A report from the UN found the Covid19 pandemic will likely result in plastic waste more than doubling in the next few years., and the vast majority of that is face masks. The report goes on to warn these masks (and other medical waste) will clog sewage and irrigation systems, which will have knock on effects on public health, irrigation and agriculture. A study from the University of Swansea found “heavy metals and plastic fibres were released when throw-away masks were submerged in water.” These materials are toxic to both people and wildlife. *  *  * PART VII: VACCINES 23. Covid “vaccines” are totally unprecedented. Before 2020 no successful vaccine against a human coronavirus had ever been developed. Since then we have allegedly made 20 of them in 18 months. Scientists have been trying to develop a SARS and MERS vaccine for years with little success. Some of the failed SARS vaccines actually caused hypersensitivity to the SARS virus. Meaning that vaccinated mice could potentially get the disease more severely than unvaccinated mice. Another attempt caused liver damage in ferrets. While traditional vaccines work by exposing the body to a weakened strain of the microorganism responsible for causing the disease, these new Covid vaccines are mRNA vaccines. mRNA (messenger ribonucleic acid) vaccines theoretically work by injecting viral mRNA into the body, where it replicates inside your cells and encourages your body to recognise, and make antigens for, the “spike proteins” of the virus. They have been the subject of research since the 1990s, but before 2020 no mRNA vaccine was ever approved for use. * 24. Vaccines do not confer immunity or prevent transmission. It is readily admitted that Covid “vaccines” do not confer immunity from infection and do not prevent you from passing the disease onto others. Indeed, an article in the British Medical Journal highlighted that the vaccine studies were not designed to even try and assess if the “vaccines” limited transmission. The vaccine manufacturers themselves, upon releasing the untested mRNA gene therapies, were quite clear their product’s “efficacy” was based on “reducing the severity of symptoms”. * 25. The vaccines were rushed and have unknown longterm effects. Vaccine development is a slow, laborious process. Usually, from development through testing and finally being approved for public use takes many years. The various vaccines for Covid were all developed and approved in less than a year. Obviously there can be no long-term safety data on chemicals which are less than a year old. Pfizer even admit this is true in the leaked supply contract between the pharmaceutical giant, and the government of Albania: the long-term effects and efficacy of the Vaccine are not currently known and that there may be adverse effects of the Vaccine that are not currently known Further, none of the vaccines have been subject to proper trials. Many of them skipped early-stage trials entirely, and the late-stage human trials have either not been peer-reviewed, have not released their data, will not finish until 2023 or were abandoned after “severe adverse effects”. * 26. Vaccine manufacturers have been granted legal indemnity should they cause harm. The USA’s Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act (PREP) grants immunity until at least 2024. The EU’s product licensing law does the same, and there are reports of confidential liability clauses in the contracts the EU signed with vaccine manufacturers. The UK went even further, granting permanent legal indemnity to the government, and any employees thereof, for any harm done when a patient is being treated for Covid19 or “suspected Covid19”. Again, the leaked Albanian contract suggests that Pfizer, at least, made this indemnity a standard demand of supplying Covid vaccines: Purchaser hereby agrees to indemnify, defend and hold harmless Pfizer […] from and against any and all suits, claims, actions, demands, losses, damages, liabilities, settlements, penalties, fines, costs and expenses *  *  * PART VIII: DECEPTION & FOREKNOWLEDGE 27. The EU was preparing “vaccine passports” at least a YEAR before the pandemic began. Proposed COVID countermeasures, presented to the public as improvised emergency measures, have existed since before the emergence of the disease. Two EU documents published in 2018, the “2018 State of Vaccine Confidence” and a technical report titled “Designing and implementing an immunisation information system” discussed the plausibility of an EU-wide vaccination monitoring system. These documents were combined into the 2019 “Vaccination Roadmap”, which (among other things) established a “feasibility study” on vaccine passports to begin in 2019 and finish in 2021: This report’s final conclusions were released to the public in September 2019, just a month before Event 201 (below). * 28. A “training exercise” predicted the pandemic just weeks before it started. In October 2019 the World Economic Forum and Johns Hopkins University held Event 201. This was a training exercise based on a zoonotic coronavirus starting a worldwide pandemic. The exercise was sponsored by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and GAVI the vaccine alliance. The exercise published its findings and recommendations in November 2019 as a “call to action”. One month later, China recorded their first case of “Covid”. * 29. Since the beginning of 2020, the Flu has “disappeared”. In the United States, since Februart 2020, influenza cases have allegedly dropped by over 98%. It’s not just the US either, globally flu has apparently almost completely disappeared. Meanwhile, a new disease called “Covid”, which has identical symptoms and a similar mortality rate to influenza, is supposedly sweeping the globe. * 30. The elite have made fortunes during the pandemic. Since the beginning of lockdown the wealthiest people have become significantly wealthier. Forbes reported that 40 new billionaires have been created “fighting the coronavirus”, with 9 of them being vaccine manufacturers. Business Insider reported that “billionaires saw their net worth increase by half a trillion dollars” by October 2020. Clearly that number will be even bigger by now. *  *  * These are the vital facts of the pandemic, presented here as a resource to help formulate and support your arguments with friends or strangers. Thanks to all the researchers who have collated and collected this information over the last twenty months, especially Swiss Policy Research. Tyler Durden Sun, 09/26/2021 - 07:00.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nyt19 hr. 1 min. ago

Piercing the Sky: Where Will We See the Black Gold by Xmas?

Knock, knock? Is it already the sky, or just a ceiling? Either way, oil has risen substantially — how high can it go? Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Fundamental Updates The crude closed on highs on Thursday thanks to optimism about demand as well as the remaining tight supply. In fact, this […] Knock, knock? Is it already the sky, or just a ceiling? Either way, oil has risen substantially — how high can it go? if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Fundamental Updates The crude closed on highs on Thursday thanks to optimism about demand as well as the remaining tight supply. In fact, this increase is driven by a general market sentiment that is relatively favorable to the macroeconomic situation and the conviction that supply should remain tight until the end of 2021. The WTI crude oil futures rose 1.5% - more than $1 compared to Wednesday's close. Like Wall Street, the oil market has also been sensitive to more and more reassuring tone of messages from China about the situation of real estate developer Evergrande, which is on the verge of default. In addition, the acceleration of air travel caused by Washington lifting restrictions on entry into the United States could also boost demand for kerosene. And finally, while natural gas prices are hanging from the ceiling, we could see a shift in demand from gas to oil happening, which would obviously boost the barrel rally in Q4! Geopolitical Scene Thursday evening, Lebanese Hezbollah announced the arrival of a new shipment of oil from Iran to the Syrian port of Banians — the party’s television channel Al Mana reported on its Telegram account this morning. Hezbollah argues that the shipments are intended to help the Lebanese people, who are suffering severe fuel shortages due to the financial crisis the country has been experiencing for the last couple of years. On the other hand, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mimait, expected at the Elysée Palace (Paris) on Friday, said that the shipments from Iran violated Lebanon's sovereignty, as both Syria and Iran are subject to US sanctions. Figure 1 – WTI Crude Oil (CLX21) Futures (November contract, daily chart) Figure 2 – Henry Hub Natural Gas (NGV21) Futures (October contract, daily chart, logarithmic scale) With the black gold now attempting to pierce through its all-time highs, it will be interesting to see how oil demand will progress at those levels, as well as whether OPEC+ will face some new pressures to intervene on the supply side in the forthcoming weeks. And… what do you think? We would like to hear from you! What’s your opinion on how high the WTI Crude could go before the end of the year? Do not hesitate to let us know! Have a nice weekend! Like what you’ve read? Subscribe for our daily newsletter today, and you'll get 7 days of FREE access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today! Thank you. Sebastien Bischeri Oil & Gas Trading Strategist The information above represents analyses and opinions of Sebastien Bischeri, & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Sebastien Bischeri and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Bischeri is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Sebastien Bischeri’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Sebastien Bischeri, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Updated on Sep 24, 2021, 10:29 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 24th, 2021

Chinese Real Estate Giant Evergrande Expected To Pay Off Some Debt

Wall Street got some clarification from the Fed yesterday after a long wait, which helps explain why major indices are painted green this morning. The Fed basically said the economy is doing better, and that’s good to hear.  Volatility is down, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) falling back under 20 after soaring above 25 during Monday’s selloff. A dip in VIX could signal a clearer road to stock market gains, as many investors still appear to be bullish about the U.S. stock market vs. other possible places to park their cash.  In a less helpful bit of news, 351,000 Americans filed for jobless claims last week, vs. 320,000 that analysts had expected and an increase from 332,000 the previous week. That could indicate continued labor shortages for some companies and the service sectors.  Don’t Dismiss Evergrande Too Quickly Earlier, in Asia, beleaguered Chinese property developer Evergrande said it would start making payments on some of its debt. However, Beijing is sending out signals that it might let the real estate giant fail on some of its obligations, namely those held by investors overseas.  It’s interesting how the Evergrande worries have faded into the background a bit here after slamming Wall Street earlier this week. It just goes to show how important the Fed is. However, don’t dismiss the Evergrande story. For now, it seems to be in the background, but these stories have a habit of coming back. In other news, there might be interest in a scheduled meeting today with the White House on producers and users of semiconductors, of which there has been a shortage affecting everything from computers to cars. Workers have been curtailed by the pandemic while demand has increased.  Demand also is on the increase for homes, judging by the very nice quarter just reported by KB Home (NYSE: KBH). The homebuilding company had supply chain issues, but revenue still rose 47%. In other earnings news, Blackberry (NYSE: BB) shares were also rising this morning after an earnings beat.  There’s also a bunch of key earnings reports ahead later, including Costco (NASDAQ: COST) and Nike (NYSE: NKE), which could give insight into the health of both U.S. and Chinese consumers.  Next Jobs Report Could Help Determine Fed’s Taper Timing A decent September jobs report probably means the Fed could announce a slight loosening of the economy’s training wheels in November.  That’s basically what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told us at his press conference yesterday after the Fed’s meeting, and so far, the market seems OK with that. While the major indices pulled back a bit from their peaks after Powell spoke, Wednesday was still a very strong day.  Leading sectors included Financials—which would conceivably benefit from higher rates—and Energy. Both are so-called “cyclical” sectors that tend to do better when the economy is growing, and a taper announcement might be seen as confirmation from the Fed that things are going well. Getting back to Powell, what he said in his press conference is that he thinks “the test is all but met” for a taper of the Fed’s $120 billion a month bond-buying program, but he needs to see a “decent” jobs report. The report—due Friday, Oct. 8—now arguably becomes even more important than it already was following relatively soft August jobs data that reflected the Delta variant’s impact on travel and leisure hiring.  As Powell also said, many Fed officials think the test has already been met to taper. To some analysts, the chairman’s words signaled that a taper announcement is all but baked in at the November meeting, barring some major new bearish development between now and then.  It’s unlikely most investors really believe ...Full story available on»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaSep 23rd, 2021

Builders Regain Confidence in September: Top 4 Housing Picks

The latest September reading of builders' confidence reflects thriving housing market conditions, defying supply shortage. Homebuilders have now regained optimism on the U.S. housing market, with homebuilder confidence registering its first monthly gain over the past four months. Defying the unprecedented supply chain disruptions, homebuilder sentiment inched one point higher in September, given solid demand trend and lower lumber prices.According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) report released on Monday, monthly reading jumped one point to 76 this month from August. Strong underlying demand for housing raises optimism despite headwinds like rising building material costs and the fact that persistent shortage of skilled labor continues to vex builders. Yet, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI is still off its high of 90 reached last November.For this month, two of the three HMI components grew sequentially. Current sales conditions increased one point to 82. Buyer traffic rose two points to 61 and sales prediction for the next six months remained steady at 81. The HMI gauge of future sales expectation signals persistent growth in housing demand this year.In the words of NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke, “The September data show stability as some building material cost challenges ease, particularly for softwood lumber. However, delivery times remain extended and the chronic construction labor shortage is expected to persist as the overall labor market recovers.”Although a risk of affordability is expected to crop up going forward on accelerating home prices and construction costs, “a still hot but more stable level of activity” in the single-family building market raises hope.Low Borrowing Costs & Suburban Shift Remain Growth DriversPer Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined 2 basis points (bps) to 2.86% for the week ended Sep 16 from a week ago. The metric also declined 1 bps from 2.87% recorded in the corresponding prior-year period.The U.S. housing market remains buoyant, with home sales rising at a record pace, defying low inventory levels. The fundamentals of this rate-sensitive market — which accounts for almost 3% of the economy — remain favorable, given the Fed’s dovish monetary stance and lower mortgage rates.Furthermore, the willingness for more space to accommodate working and learning from home has been driving the U.S. housing market. Demand for new homes is improving in lower-density markets, including small metro areas, rural markets and large metro exurbs, as people seek larger homes to work from home amid the pandemic.In the latest release by the organization, it has been highlighted that Exurban markets have seen the most growth, while inner suburbs are now witnessing an increase in demand, especially for townhouses. Regionally, the housing market continues to see growth in the South and the West, particularly the Mountain West.Key Housing PicksAdding some housing stocks to your portfolio seems to be a judicious move at this point, given solid demand. With the help of the Zacks Stock Screener, we have zeroed in on four stocks that have a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and favorable metrics. A top Zacks Rank indicates that these stocks have been witnessing positive estimate revisions, which generally translate into rapid price appreciation. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchMI Homes, Inc. MHO: This Columbus, OH-based builder of single-family homes has been benefiting from solid performance across all 15 of its housing operations, and the Mortgage and Title business. Higher deliveries, greater operating leverage, stellar backlog level, and increased return of equity have been helping the company generate improved profits. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #1 at present and has gained 36% so far this year, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry’s 18.4% rally. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2021 earnings has been upwardly revised by 32.5% over the past 60 days. Earnings for 2021 are expected to grow 63.3%.Meritage Homes Corporation MTH: Based in Scottsdale, AZ, Meritage Homes is one of the leading designers and builders of single-family homes. Its focus on entry-level LiVE.NOW homes has been a major driving factor. Meritage Homes’ strategy of targeting entry-level buyers is expected to boost its performance over the long haul. This Zacks Rank #1 stock has gained 22.8% so far this year. Earnings are expected to grow 72.4% in 2021. Meritage Homes has seen an upward estimate revision of 28.9% for 2021 earnings over the past 60 days.Century Communities, Inc. CCS: This Greenwood Village, CO-based company engages in the design, development, construction, marketing, and sale of single-family attached and detached homes. Demand for its affordable new homes driven by favorable demographics, tight resale supply and low-interest rates, while underscoring the strength of its competitive positioning and national footprint across 30 high-growth markets, has been driving Century Communities’ growth. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 and has gained 43.8% year to date. The company has an expected earnings growth of 115.9% for 2021. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2021 earnings has moved up 16.1% over the past 60 days.Tri Pointe Homes Inc. TPH: Based in Irvine, CA, this company engages in the design, construction, and sale of single-family detached and attached homes in the United States. Robust demand and pricing, and better operating leverage have been driving its performance. Cost-cutting initiatives implemented earlier this year and focus on entry-level buyers have been adding to the positives. The stock, carrying a Zacks Rank #2 at present, has gained 25.9% year to date. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2021 earnings has been upwardly revised by 14.2% over the past 60 days. Earnings for 2021 are expected to grow 66.8%. 5 Stocks Set to Double Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2021. Previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%. Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH): Free Stock Analysis Report Century Communities, Inc. (CCS): Free Stock Analysis Report Tri Pointe Homes Inc. (TPH): Free Stock Analysis Report MI Homes, Inc. (MHO): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 21st, 2021

Apartment Construction Is Increasing Fast. That’s a Good Sign

The August strength came in a 21.6% jump in construction of apartment units (WASHINGTON) — U.S. home construction rebounded a better-than-expected 3.9% in August with the strength coming in apartment construction. The August increase left home construction at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.62 million units, 17.4% above the pace of a year ago, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Housing starts had fallen 6.2% in July. The August strength came in a 21.6% jump in construction of apartment units which offset a 2.8% fall in construction of single-family homes. Applications for building permits, a good sign of future activity, rose 6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.73 million units. However, with demand still strong and homes for sale still in short supply, the outlook for housing construction remains solid for the rest of this year. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] “Higher input costs and shortages remain headwinds for builders. But still-low inventories should be a positive for activity as these constraints ease,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. Construction activity was up in all parts of the country except the West, which saw a 21.1% decline Construction surged 167.2% in the Northeast but that jump came after a 54.4% plunge in July. Construction starts were up 11.4% in the Midwest and 1.4% in the South. A monthly survey of builder sentiment by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo showed sentiment inched up to 76 in September, ending a three-month decline. The index remains far below the record reading of 90 last November. “The single-family housing market has moved off the unsustainably hot pace of construction of last fall and has reached a still hot but more stable level of activity,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist for the home builders......»»

Category: topSource: timeSep 21st, 2021

Dozens of cargo ships stuck waiting off New York"s coast amid port staff shortages and surging demand for goods

Increased demand for goods, coupled with the labor shortage is causing shipping disruptions in New York, following similar problems in California. As of 9 p.m. local time Saturday, the ships appear to have been stuck in place for hours, The Daily Mail reported. Photo by Michael Nagle/Xinhua via Getty Images Dozens of container ships are stuck off the coast of New York, per Mail Online. It comes amid surging demand for goods ahead of the holiday season and a national labor shortage. Port of New York and New Jersey appears to be facing similar issues as West coast ports. See more stories on Insider's business page. Around 24 cargo ships and oil tankers are stuck waiting to dock off the coast of Long Island, New York, due to a surge in demand for consumer goods and short-staffed ports.MarineTraffic, the global ship tracking site, showed ships gathered a few miles off the coastline that stretches from Long Beach in the west to Lido Beach and Jones Beach Island in the east, The Daily Mail reported.The ships appeared to have been stuck in place since at least Saturday evening, the outlet added.Pandemic-induced shopping sprees ahead of the holiday season, coupled with a national labor shortage, are thought to be the main cause.Similar issues have been occurring on the West coast in recent weeks. Insider previously reported that 56 container ships were stuck at anchor or in drift areas off of Los Angeles and Long Beach ports.Those ports were dealing with 140 ships, including 87 freighters, according to Insider's report.According to the Container News website, the Port of New York and New Jersey serves the world's major ocean carriers and global alliances and consists of a complex of approximately 386 km of shipping channels, as well as anchorages, and port facilities.With record numbers of huge cargo ships clogging key ports, causing a knock-on effect on the global supply chain, many retailers are being forced to find creative ways to overcome shortages and price hikes, Insider previously reported. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nyt21 hr. 29 min. ago

Panic Hoarding Gasoline Begins As UK Plunges Towards "Winter Of Discontent"

Panic Hoarding Gasoline Begins As UK Plunges Towards "Winter Of Discontent" One day after oil giant BP warned about rationing gasoline and diesel at UK service stations, Brits began to panic buy fuel as the government tried to calm fears.  Lines of cars and trucks are spilling over into the streets at service stations across the country. A BP spokesperson said Thursday that a truck driver shortage has resulted in its inability to transport fuel from refineries to its network of service stations. These words spooked the public, which could cause a more severe shortage due to the hoarding.  The scenes of long lines at gas stations bring back memories of the 1973 Opec Oil Crisis, the 2000 fuel shortage, and the virus pandemic disruptions amid fears the country is diving headfirst into a 1970s-style "winter of discontent" of shortages and socio-economic distress.  On Friday afternoon, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps told Brits on Sky News that there was no fuel shortage and for "everyone to carry on as normal." His soothing words weren't enough to stop the buying panic, which is expected to continue into the weekend.  Gasoline and diesel shortages will only stoke higher prices amid an expanding energy crisis that has resulted in another shortage: natural gas. This has caused power prices to erupt and disrupted chemical plants that halted fertilizer production, and has caused headaches for major food supply chains. Brits are also panic hoarding food.  The Daily Mail provides a list of issues that threatens a winter of discontent:  1. A shortage of natural gas causing a spike in gas bills for millions of Britons, along with the possibility of dozens of small energy firms going bust;  2. However ministers say 'there is question of the lights going out, of people being unable to heat their homes. There will be no three-day working week, or a throwback to the 1970s';  3. A shortage of natural gas leading to the closure of fertilizer plants, which produce the CO2 used in fizzy drinks and the meat industry;  4. The Government has since agreed a deal with fertilizer firms to restart a factory in a bid to maintain CO2 production;  5. A lorry driver shortage which is crippling the UK's transport industry, leaving to empty shelves and slow delivery times;  6. Bosses say this could impact both of Christmas dinners and have an impact on the number of toys on the shelves;  7. Now bosses of major fuel firms have warned they will have to start shutting petrol stations because there are not enough lorry drivers to effectively distribute to all of its petrol stations; 8. It comes after the Bank of England warned on Thursday that surging household energy bills would send the cost of living spiralling by more than 4 percent this winter - the highest rate of growth for a decade Worst still, there are now fears that shortages could bite households in the run-up to Christmas.  The classic Christmas dinner could be decimated, with turkey, pigs in blankets, potatoes and brussel sprouts all at risk. Tyler Durden Sat, 09/25/2021 - 08:45.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 25th, 2021

Wedding planners and florists say there"s a massive flower shortage as weddings boom: "We"ve never had demand like this"

Demand for flowers continued to grow during the last two years while florists and flower farmers grappled with poor weather and lack of workers. The flower supply chain is in chaos. Photo by Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images) Florists say demand for flowers is skyrocketing while they become harder to source. A lack of workers earlier in the pandemic led to shortages of plants to harvest now. Climate change is also impacting growing seasons around the world. See more stories on Insider's business page. Wedding and event planners across the US are scrambling to find flowers as a combination of surging demand, lack of workers, and unfavorable weather roils the floral industry."It's not just that there's a shortage in product, it's that everybody has events at the same time," Kelly Shore, owner of Petals by the Shore floral design business in Washington, DC and the website Floral Source, which connects US flower farmers with florists, told Insider. "We've never had demand like this."Teresa Eoff, the owner of Figure Eight Events in Fontana, California, is seeing the same thing."Everyone's fighting over flowers right now," she said.An explosion in weddings is happening across the US. The Wedding Report is forecasting 1.93 million US weddings in 2021 and 2.47 million in 2022 - up from 1.3 million weddings in 2020. The forecasters also said that 20% of 2020 weddings were rescheduled for 2021."The wedding boom is absolutely real," Daulton Van Kuren, owner of The Refined Host event planning in Georgia, told Insider. As soon as events were allowed again, "my phone line and email inbox went nuts," he said.Demand is so great that buyers can't ask for specific flowers or even colors, just a general color palette, said Val Foote, a florist and owner of Sungrove Blossoms in Rochester, New York. "We're past asking for specifics."White flowers, in particular, are nearly impossible to get."You used to be able to find a white rose no matter what," Marisa Guerrero, vice president of Debbie's Bloomers in El Paso, Texas, said. "Now they're in super high demand because everybody decided to get married." Fewer plantings disrupted supplyWhen COVID-19 first hit the US in spring 2020, the floral industry was hit hard.As a result, flower farms destroyed hundreds of tons of flowers, according to Jackie Trejo, the owner of Jackie Trejo Floral Design in Houston, Texas.Some flower farms laid off workers and others closed down altogether. In December 2020, US floral industry employment was at 5.64 million, its lowest level in seven years according to the National Association of Wholesale Distributors, down 247,717 jobs from the same period in 2019.As a result, fewer flowers were planted and properly harvested for upcoming seasons, some florists and flower farmers said."We have four times the demand for flowers, but half the stock," Foote said. "It's a disaster."When demand started to pick up again, some flower farms had trouble finding workers. Shore said some commercial farms she visited recently didn't have enough workers to bundle flowers and load them into trucks for storage in coolers. The harvested flowers were left to die in the heat, she said."We had issues finding workers this year," Gretel Adams, owner of Sunny Meadows Flower Farm in Columbus, Ohio told Insider. When she couldn't find enough local workers, she hired temporary workers through a visa program with Mexico, she said. Poor weather has hurt supply, florists say "The weather has been terrible, with horrible growing conditions," for flower farms in South America, where most US flowers are sourced from, Foote said. Colder nights and heavier annual rainfall impacts the health of the plants and when they're ready to harvest, according to Florists Supply.US farms are also facing weather-related problems. California, which is responsible for three-quarters of US cut flower sales, has contended with historic droughts, unpredictable rain patterns, and fires."We had wildfire come right up to the border of the farm. We were working in smoke for approximately four weeks," Dru Rivers of Fully Belly Farm in Guinda, California told Slow Flowers Society. Rivers says her farm has also shifted to focus on sunflowers, zinnias, and other flowers that can thrive in hot weather.For Adams in Ohio, she's feeling the impacts of warm weather coming earlier in the spring recently."In May it gets really hot and everything starts to sprout," but then there's a late frost or freeze that kills the budding flowers. "We've lost our peonies the last two years," she said."Local farms [in New York] had a terrible spring and planted a month late," Foote said. Dahlias and roses, popular wedding flowers, are both growing behind their normal schedule, with some traditional summer blooms not ready until fall- an issue she attributed to changing weather. US flower farms are already spread thin as people increasingly rely on them with imported flowers failing to arrive, Foote said.Do you have a story to share about a retail or restaurant chain? Email this reporter at the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderSep 25th, 2021

Containers Quickly Pile Up At US Rail Terminals, Add To Port Strains

Containers Quickly Pile Up At US Rail Terminals, Add To Port Strains The US continues to face an unprecedented shipping crisis as logjams at ports and railyards continue to worsen with no relief in sight.  The increasing volume of containers, combined with a labor shortage of dockworkers and truck drivers, rail and storage capacity, have left shipping networks with huge congestion problems that continue to increase. Currently, more than 100 container ships are waiting to enter US ports from coast to coast. Some of the largest congestion is in San Pedro Bay off the port of Los Angeles, with more than 61 vessels waiting to enter. Dwell time for vessels is six days, the wait time for on-dock rail is nearly 16 days, and then it takes an additional week to move the container on the street to warehouses.  What's caught our attention is import congestion at railyards. Using data from Hapag-Lloyd AG, one of the world's top shippers, we find that container dwell time at 11 major railroad terminals averages 9.8 days this month, up from 6.7 days in May and 5.9 days in February.  Source: Bloomberg Noted above, the port of Los Angeles has the highest wait times out of all railyards. Delays are also increasing in Charleston and Detroit.  We recently said port officials had extended operating hours at truck gates to reduce a massive backlog of containers piling up retail, manufacturing, and agricultural supply chains.  Hapag-Lloyd said the delays at Los Angeles and Long Beach ports are the most extreme and would "continue for the remainder of the year."  Bloomberg points out that increasing demand for imports mixed with labor shortages of truck drivers is a very severe issue plaguing major companies' supply chains, such as packaged good giant General Mills Inc. "So we have hundreds of disruptions in our supply chain literally, and it really changes on a daily and weekly basis," said Jonathon Nudi, group president of North America retail at General Mills. "The bulk of our discussions right now with retailers are really around service and making sure that we can ship the product that our consumers are ultimately looking for." Import congestion appears to be worsening, and the focus is now on railyards.  Tyler Durden Fri, 09/24/2021 - 19:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 24th, 2021

New-Home Sales Bump Up Monthly but Still Lag Behind Last Year’s Levels

New-home sales increased for the second consecutive month, up 1.5% to a pace of 740,000. Year-over-year, sales are down for the third month in a row. Market breakdown: New-Home Sales: 740,000 For-Sale Inventory: 378,000 Months’ Supply:  6.1 months Median Price: $390,900 What the industry is saying: “Sales of new homes registered below year-ago levels, for […] The post New-Home Sales Bump Up Monthly but Still Lag Behind Last Year’s Levels appeared first on RISMedia. New-home sales increased for the second consecutive month, up 1.5% to a pace of 740,000. Year-over-year, sales are down for the third month in a row. Market breakdown: New-Home Sales: 740,000 For-Sale Inventory: 378,000 Months’ Supply:  6.1 months Median Price: $390,900 What the industry is saying: “Sales of new homes registered below year-ago levels, for the third time in a row, but notched a second consecutive monthly gain, rising 1.5% to a pace of 740,000. Factors that are favorable for housing—a large number of young households near peak home-buying age, greater flexibility to work remotely that’s expanded the areas homebuyers are willing to consider and still low mortgage rates—have kept the recent new home sales pace above annual totals for each year from 2008 to 2019 and also contributed to the uptick this month. “Nevertheless, the pace remains below highs seen earlier this year. Buyers show signs of having moved past a ‘land-a-home-at-all-costs’ mentality as rising home prices mean purchasing a home—whether new or existing—requires a larger share of the typical American’s paycheck. In fact, the median new single-family home sales price was $390,900 in August, up 20% from a year ago. Consumers this summer were recalibrating priorities, balancing the resumption of travel, vacations and dining out with big-ticket budget items like home-buying or renting—and doing so in the face of rising costs on just about everything. Additionally, many items remain unexpectedly hard to come by, including, in some cases, new homes. “Months supply of new homes is higher than that of existing homes, (6.1 vs. 2.6 months) suggesting that there are an ample number of new homes for sale, but this comes with a big caveat. Many for-sale new homes are either under construction or not-yet-started—more than 90% in August. In other words, they’re not quite move-in ready, a less than ideal choice for buyers eager to get settled, especially when difficult-to-predict supply chain challenges make it harder to target new home completion dates. While the existing-home market may be a better choice for buyers with strict timelines for moving, those who can afford to wait may find relatively more options and somewhat less competition among yet-to-be-started new homes.” — Danielle Hale, Chief Economist,® “New-home sales increased for the second month in a row in August, mirroring gains seen in starts, which also increased this month. Robust demand continues to fuel strong sales, and interest rates have remained low, helping to counteract high sales pricing. August has historically been a slower month for sales than July, and this increase is encouraging and may indicate that the positive momentum that began in July may continue through fall. “Builders still have a robust backlog to get through and the uptick this summer is a promising start to what may be a longer-term trend as supply chain issues begin to resolve. RCLCO expects home sales to remain strong overall because demographic factors continue to be favorable for the housing market as millennials hit peak family-formation years. Lingering effects of the pandemic have increased demand for larger living spaces and access to the outdoors, and the additional flexibility to work remotely or to return to a hybrid work schedule has expanded the area where households are seeking to purchase a home as commute time becomes less of an issue.” — Kelly Mangold, Principal, RCLCO Real Estate Consulting The post New-Home Sales Bump Up Monthly but Still Lag Behind Last Year’s Levels appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaSep 24th, 2021

Before They Were An Inconvenience, But Now The Shortages Are Really Beginning To Sting

Before They Were An Inconvenience, But Now The Shortages Are Really Beginning To Sting Authored by Michael Snyder via, Have you noticed that store shelves are starting to get emptier and emptier?  During the panic shopping that was sparked by the start of the COVID pandemic in 2020, there were very intense shortages of certain items, but those shortages did not last very long at all.  But now there are widespread shortages in just about every sector of our economy, and they are starting to become quite painful.  Unfortunately, we are being told to expect the shortages to intensify as we head into the holiday season.  That is extremely alarming, because in many areas the shortages are already quite severe. I had been away from the news for a couple of days, and when I came back there were lots more stories about our ongoing shortages.  For example, the following comes from an excellent piece by Matt Stoller… There are shortages in everything from ocean shipping containers to chlorine tablets to railroad capacity to black pipe (the piping that houses wires inside buildings) to spicy chicken breasts to specialized plastic bags necessary for making vaccines. Moreover, prices for all sorts of items, from housing to food, are changing in weird ways. Beef, for instance, is at near record highs for consumers, but cattle ranchers are getting paid much less than they used to for their cows. In my entire life, I have never seen anything like this. Even the Federal Reserve is admitting that we have a major problem at this point.  In fact, in the latest Beige Book the Fed referred to the shortages a whopping 80 times. In certain parts of the country, these shortages are really beginning to sting.  A reader just emailed me about what is going on in his section of Connecticut, and he said that I could share this with all of you… I am just a regular guy in Connecticut, who has been watching things very closely, especially from a Biblical perspective. I wanted to quickly share with you an experience my wife and I had about two weeks ago at a medium-size, family run grocery store near Waterbury, CT. Seemingly overnight, we noticed there were little yellow signs on the shelves, where certain SKUs used to be. Not entire lines, but individual SKUs. For example, a flavor of oatmeal, certain cereals, etc. The signs said something to the effect of: “This item is no longer available due to supply chain constraints”. I would say there were a few hundred signs in total throughout the store. It wasn’t until we got to the juice/water aisle that we noticed the larger problem: there was no Gatorade (?) and no bottled water (gallon jugs). I have befriended the manager over the years, so I asked him where the water is, and he told me “…they only will give us so many bottles”. I asked who ‘they’ is, and he said the manufacturer: they were being rationed. As he said this, a truck driver happened to walk by and joined in on the conversation. He told us that he just got back from Maine, after a three-day trip- a trip that normally takes him a few hours. He said he, and all of the other truck drivers, sit at the warehouses for days, waiting for their trucks to be filled. To be clear, I asked him how long it normally takes, and he said a few hours at the most. On our way out, I remembered that we needed dog food, so we went to the pet aisle, and there was no cat litter, and no dog food, save a few little bags of the cheapest stuff. All of the things Steve Quayle has been saying about food and water shortages suddenly became reality. I always believed him, but now I was seeing it, at the very local level. We then decided to go to PetSmart to get the dog food. Empty. The entire dog food shelf was empty except for a few bags! Are similar things happening in your part of the country? If so, please feel free to email me and let me know. We need to share intel with one another, because the mainstream media is not telling us the truth. Of course the shortages would not be as severe if we could actually unload all of the container ships that are backlogged at our ports.  Right now, dozens of container ships are sitting along the west coast waiting to be unloaded… The number of container ships at anchor or drifting in San Pedro Bay off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach has blown through all previous records. The latest peak: There were an all-time-high 73 container ships in the queue in San Pedro Bay on Sunday, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California (the tally inched back to 69 on Tuesday). Of the ships offshore Sunday, 36 were forced to drift because anchorages were full. Theoretically, the numbers — already surreally high — could go even higher than this. While designated anchorages are limited, the space for ships to safely drift offshore is not. This is the same problem that I talked about the other day. At one time we had more able-bodied workers than we knew what to do with, but now there is an extreme shortage of workers all over the globe. Sadly, it has gotten to a point where we don’t even have enough people to drive our kids to school… School districts around the country are struggling to fill thousands of bus driver positions as worker shortages lead to late arrivals and last-minute scrambles to bring retired workers back onto payrolls. The shortages are so bad in some places that districts are taking extraordinary steps to get kids to school as students return to in-person classes this fall. Philadelphia’s school district will pay families $300 a month, or $3,000 for the year, to opt out of transportation services and get their kids to school on their own. Albemarle County Public Schools in Virginia is offering a $2,500 bonus to new drivers — $100 more than the school district in the county seat, Charlottesville, is offering. This is the worst labor shortage that the U.S. has ever faced, and it just keeps getting worse. So where did all the people go? Without enough able-bodied workers, our economy is experiencing a whole host of difficulties right now.  And when you consider everything else that has been going on, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Joe Biden’s approval rating just sunk to a new record low… Eight months after President Joe Biden’s inauguration, his job approval rating has fallen six percentage points to 43%, the lowest of his presidency. For the first time, a majority, 53%, now disapproves of Biden’s performance. These findings are from a Sept. 1-17 Gallup poll that was conducted after the U.S. military evacuated more than 120,000 people from Afghanistan. The United States’ exit from the nation’s longest war was marred by the Taliban’s quick takeover of most of the country and a suicide bombing at the airport in Kabul, which killed 13 U.S. service members. Over the same period, COVID-19 infection rates, nationally, were surging, leading to hospital overflows in some regions. And there are some parts of the nation where his approval rating is absolutely disastrous.  Just check out the latest numbers from Iowa… Just 31% of Iowans approved of how Joe Biden is handling his duties as president while a whopping 62% disapprove. Biden’s disapproval number is below the lowest ever measured by ace pollster J. Ann Selzer for former presidents Donald Trump (35%) and Barack Obama (36%). “This is a bad poll for Joe Biden, and it’s playing out in everything that he touches right now,” Selzer told the Des Moines Register. Less than a year ago, a lot of Americans were viewing Biden as some sort of a “savior” figure. That didn’t exactly work out, did it? Many of us have been warning that shortages and high levels of inflation were coming for a very long time, but of course most of the population is not interested in such warnings. They just want to be told that everything is going to be okay. But the truth is that everything is not going to be okay, and the pain that we have experienced so far is just the beginning. *  *  * It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/24/2021 - 15:20.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 24th, 2021

7 Best ETFs of the First Nine Months of 2021

We highlight seven ETFs from different segments that have outperformed and gained more than 40% in the first nine months of 2021. The U.S. stock market is booming this year with major bourses hitting multiple highs braving a myriad of woes. This is primarily thanks to the reopening of businesses and economies, the largest vaccination drive, an unprecedent stimulus, a huge infrastructure package and a healing job market.All these have resulted in speedy economic recovery and powered activities across all sectors and categories, resulting in increased consumer spending. Americans are spending on big-ticket items such as vacations and weddings, companies are going on hiring sprees, and the transition to new technologies such as electric vehicles is accelerating. Resumption of earnings growth also bodes well for the stock market rally.Additionally, the first full U.S. approval of the Pfizer PFE-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine and the approval of emergency use of a booster dose bolstered risk-on trade as it will help put brakes on the ongoing surge in the COVID-19 Delta variant cases and lead to continued reopening of the economy. The U.S. economy returned to the pre-pandemic level in the second quarter, indicating a sustained recovery from the pandemic recession. Further, the Fed, in its latest meeting, kept current monetary stimulus in place for a little bit longer, fueling increased confidence among investors (read: Will Pfizer ETFs Soar on FDA's COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Approval?).However, inflation fears, resurgence in pandemic, taper talks, potential for high corporate tax rates and signs of slowdown in China economy have kept the stock market edgy throughout the year.With just a week left to end the first nine months of 2021, the S&P 500 is up about 18.4% while the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq have gained 13.6% and 16.8%, respectively. In fact, the cyclical sectors have been outperforming this year on a rebounding economy.While there have been winners in many corners of the space, we highlight seven ETFs from different segments that have outperformed and gained more than 40% in the first nine months of 2020. These are expected to continue outperforming, provided the fundamentals remain intact.North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF URNM – Up 89.6%Uranium stocks have been on a tear buoyed by growing social media attention, restart of nuclear reactors in Japan after 10 years and the growing uranium supply deficit, being accelerated by COVID-19 pandemic related production cuts. This ETF provides exposure to companies that are involved in the mining, exploration, development and production of uranium, as well as companies that hold physical uranium or other non-mining assets. It follows the North Shore Global Uranium Mining Index and charges investors 85 bps in annual fee. The ETF holds 35 stocks in its basket and has accumulated $676.2 million in its asset base. It trades in a good volume of 298,000 shares per day on average (read: Why Uranium Stocks & ETFs are Going Nuclear).First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund FCG – Up 79.7%Natural gas is surging on tightening supplies and low inventories, providing upside to the natural gas stocks and ETFs. FCG offers exposure to U.S. companies involved in the exploration and production of natural gas. It follows the ISE-REVERE Natural Gas Index and holds 40 stocks in its basket. The fund has amassed $267.8 million in its asset base while charging 60 bps in annual fees. Volume is good with 1.3 million shares exchanged per day on average. The product has a Zacks ETF Rank #2 (Buy) with a High risk outlook (read: Natural Gas ETFs Heat Up on Supply Crunch Ahead of Winter).Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production ETF PXE – Up 78.4%Oil price is also rising amid the backdrop of tightening supply, lower crude stockpiles and expectations of an increase in demand as vaccination roll-outs widen. This product follows the Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production Intellidex Index, which thoroughly evaluates companies involved in the exploration and production of natural resources used to produce energy based on a variety of investment merit criteria, including price momentum, earnings momentum, quality, management action and value. Holding 32 stocks in its basket, the fund has amassed $75 million in its asset base while trading in an average daily volume of 45,000 shares. It charges 63 bps in annual fees and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a High risk outlook.VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF REMX – Up 70.2%Rare earth metals are getting a boost from an accelerating shift to new technologies such as electric vehicles. About 27% of rare metals are used in the production of neomagnets, which are the essential components in electric vehicles (EVs). REMX offers exposure to companies engaged in producing, refining and recycling of rare earth and strategic metals and minerals. It follows the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index, holding 20 stocks in its basket. The ETF has AUM of $979.1 million and an average daily volume of 232,000 shares. From a country look, Chinese firms dominate the portfolio with a 47.6% share, closely followed by Australia (25%) and the United States (11.8%). The product charges 59 bps in annual fees.SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT – Up 48.9%With millions of Americans being vaccinated and reopening of the economy, consumers are feeling more optimistic, about the economy, leading to increased spending. With AUM of $1.1 billion, this product targets the broad retail sector by tracking the S&P Retail Select Industry Index. It holds 108 securities in its basket with the key holdings in the Internet & direct marketing retail, apparel retail, automotive retail, and specialty stores. The fund charges 35 bps in annual fees and trades in volume of 2.3 million shares a day on average. It has a Zacks ETF Rank #1 (Strong Buy) with a Medium risk outlook (read: Buy the Dip With These Top-Ranked ETFs).Invesco S&P SmallCap Value with Momentum ETF XSVM – Up 45.2%This fund offers exposure to the companies having the highest "value scores" and "momentum scores" by tracking the S&P 600 High Momentum Value Index. It holds a basket of 117 stocks with AUM of $336.4 million and an average daily volume of 90,000 shares. Financials and consumer discretionary take the largest share at 29% and 23.3%, respectively, while industrials round off the next spot with a double-digit exposure. The ETF charges 39 bps in annual fees.ETFMG Treatments Testing and Advancements ETF GERM – Up 43%This fund offers exposure to biotech companies engaged in the testing and treatments of infectious diseases by tracking the Prime Treatments, Testing and Advancements Index. It holds 78 stocks in its basket and charges 68 bps in annual fees. The ETF has amassed $67.2 million in its asset base and trades in an average daily volume of 22,000 shares. Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Pfizer Inc. (PFE): Free Stock Analysis Report SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT): ETF Research Reports First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG): ETF Research Reports Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production ETF (PXE): ETF Research Reports VanEck Rare EarthStrategic Me (REMX): ETF Research Reports Invesco S&P SmallCap Value with Momentum ETF (XSVM): ETF Research Reports North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF (URNM): ETF Research Reports ETFMG Treatments, Testing and Advancements ETF (GERM): ETF Research Reports To read this article on click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

NIKE (NKE) Q1 Earnings Beat, Sales Miss on Supply Constraints

NIKE (NKE) reports mixed Q2 results on strong NIKE Direct revenues, improved traffic and robust digital momentum, offset by the global supply-chain woes, and factory closures in Vietnam and Indonesia. NIKE Inc. NKE posts mixed first-quarter fiscal 2022 results amid supply-chain disruptions. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while sales lagged estimates. However, revenues and earnings improved year over year on strong NIKE Direct revenues, led by the return of traffic to stores as well as continued digital momentum. Its product innovation, brand strength and scale of operations continued to drive digital sales growth.Shares of the company declined 3.9% after the close of the trading session on Sep 23. The negative investor sentiment can be attributed to the company’s commentary on its position amid supply-chain woes and the closure of factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, and the consequent lowering of the fiscal 2022 guidance.Overall, shares of this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company have gained 2.8% in the past three months compared with the industry’s 1.6% growth.NIKE, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise  NIKE, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | NIKE, Inc. QuoteQ1 HighlightsIn the reported quarter, the company’s earnings per share of $1.16 increased 22% from 95 cents reported in the year-ago quarter and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of $1.12.Revenues of the Swoosh brand owner grew 16% year over year to $12,248 million but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12,539.5 million. On a currency-neutral basis, revenues improved 12% year over year, driven by growth across all channels, led by growth at NIKE Direct.Sales at NIKE Direct were $4.7 billion, up 28% on a reported basis and 25% on a currency-neutral basis. The NIKE Direct business benefited from steady normalization of the owned retail business and continued momentum in the digital business. Revenues at owned stores improved 24%, which was above the pre-pandemic levels recorded in first-quarter fiscal 2020. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The company continued to witness robust revenue growth at the NIKE Brand’s Digital business despite the reopening of stores. Digital revenues for the NIKE Brand were up 29% year over year on a reported basis. On a constant-currency basis, Digital sales improved 25%, led by 43% growth in North America.However, Wholesale revenues increased 5%, owing to the impacts of lower availability inventory supplies, thanks to the worsening delays in transit.Operating SegmentsThe NIKE Brand Revenues were $11,640 million, up 16% year over year on a reported basis. Revenues for the brand increased 12% on a constant-dollar basis primarily due to the NIKE Direct business’ double-digit growth in North America, APLA and EMEA.Within the NIKE Brand, revenues in North America advanced 15% on both reported and currency-neutral basis to $4,879 million. This marked the fifth consecutive season of the incredible demand for NIKE products, fueled by the back-to-school sale and return of sports activity. North America revenues benefited from double-digit growth in the Performance business in the Fall season, led by running, fitness and basketball. This growth was also influenced by the Olympics fervor, the WNBA season and the NBA finals.Sales for the NIKE Direct business were up more than 45% in the region, accounting for 26% business share. Digital sales grew 40%, driven by market share growth on strong site traffic and repeated buying from members. Sales at NIKE-owned stores accelerated more than 50% due to the return of traffic to physical stores and enhanced experiences.However, the North America business witnessed headwinds from highly elevated in-transit inventory levels due to the deterioration of transit times in North America in the last reported quarter. The transit time has now almost doubled from the pre-pandemic levels, affecting product availability across the market and its ability to serve consumer demand, particularly in the Wholesale channel. NIKE-owned inventory rose 12% year over year. Closeout inventory levels declined in double-digits from the year-ago quarter.In EMEA, the company’s revenues rose 14% on a reported basis and 8% on a currency-neutral basis to $3,307 million. Growth was driven by the EURO this summer, with NIKE players scoring higher goals than all other brands combined. The company’s Mercurial boots accounted for more than half of these goals, resulting in higher demand for the Mercurial boot and replica jerseys during the tournament.The NIKE Direct business improved 10% on a currency-neutral basis, driven by growth at NIKE stores. Traffic at EMEA stores increased year over year in double-digits coupled with better-than-anticipated conversions. NIKE Digital was up 2%. Demand for full-priced products rose 30% from last year’s higher liquidation levels. NIKE-owned inventory fell 14% in EMEA, while closeout inventory declined in double-digits. The decline is attributed to the further deterioration of transit times in EMEA in the last 90 days, leading to higher in-transit inventory and affecting the product availability to meet demand.In Greater China, revenues increased 11% year over year on a reported basis and 1% on a currency-neutral basis in the fiscal fourth quarter to $1,982 million. Revenues improved in line with an expected recovery in the market. Retail sales in late July and August were impacted by regional closures and lower foot traffic due to COVID-19 infections in the region. Prior to late July, the company witnessed recovery in traffic at physical stores, with traffic levels coming close to the prior-year levels. NIKE Direct declined 3% in the fiscal first quarter partly due to the closure of NIKE-owned stores. NIKE Digital declined 6% compared with the higher liquidation in the prior year. This was partly negated by double-digit growth in full-price sales.In APLA, NIKE revenues advanced 33% on a reported basis and 31% on a currency-neutral basis to $1,465 million. Revenues were aided by growth across all regions, led by Japan, SOKO, Korea and Mexico, offset by muted growth in the Pacific and Southeast Asia, and India due to COVID restrictions. NIKE Digital rose more than 60% on a currency-neutral basis due to the expansion of the NIKE App.Revenues at the Converse brand improved 12% on a reported basis to $629 million. On a currency-neutral basis, revenues of the segment were up 7%, backed by strong Direct-to-consumer revenues in North America and Europe.Costs & MarginsThe gross profit advanced 20% year over year to $5,696 million, while the gross margin expanded 170 basis points (bps) to 46.5%. Gross margin growth can be attributed to improved NIKE Direct margins, driven by higher full-price sales mix and favorable currency rates, offset by escalated product costs, owing to increased ocean freight costs.Selling and administrative expenses rose 20% to $3,572 million, driven by higher operating overhead and demand-creating expenses. As a percentage of sales, SG&A expenses increased 110 bps to 29.2% from the prior-year quarter.Demand-creation expenses increased 36% year over year to $918 million, owing to the normalization of spending at brand campaigns as the market laps the last year’s closures due to COVID-19, along with sustained investments in digital marketing to facilitate the rising digital demand.Operating overhead expenses were up 15% to $2.7 billion on higher wage-related expenses, increased technology investments to support digital transformation, and NIKE Direct variable costs.Balance Sheet & Shareholder-Friendly MovesNIKE ended first-quarter fiscal 2022 with cash and short-term investments of $13,695 million, up $4.2 billion from the last year. These included strong free cash flow generation, partly offset by cash dividends and share repurchases. It had long-term debt (excluding current maturities) of $9,415 million and shareholders’ equity of $14,343 million as of the end of the fiscal first quarter. As of Aug 31, 2021, inventories of $6,699 million were almost flat with the prior-year levels.In first-quarter fiscal 2022, the company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders, including dividend payouts of $435 million and share repurchases of $742 million. It completed share repurchases of 4.8 million shares under its $15-million program approved in June 2018 in the reported quarter. As of Aug 31, it repurchased 54.8 million shares for $5.4 billion under the aforesaid program.OutlookNIKE expects the consumer demand to remain at all times, driven by its strong customer connections and brand momentum. However, it remains uncertain regarding the global supply-chain headwinds that are looming in the industry. The supply-chain disruptions have been challenging for manufacturers and has significantly hampered the mobility of products across the globe. The company previously anticipated the delays in transit times to continue throughout fiscal 2022. The company notes that the transit times in North America and Europe have further deteriorated in the fiscal first quarter due to port and rail congestions, and labor shortages.In another development, the company is witnessed the sudden closure of manufacturing units of its factory partners in Vietnam and Indonesia due to COVID-related government mandates. Although the company stated that Indonesia is fully operational now, it expects the footwear factories in Vietnam to remain closed. The reopening and ramping up of the factories to full scale is likely to take time.Consequently, the company has lowered its fiscal 2022 guidance to reflect the impacts of 10-weeks of lost production in Vietnam since mid-July and expectations of the elevated transit times to remain consistent with the current levels.For fiscal 2022, the company anticipates revenue growth in the mid-single digits compared with low-double-digit growth mentioned earlier. Lowered sales are expected to result solely from the aforementioned supply-chain congestions. The company expects revenue growth to be flat to down in low-single digits, particularly in second-quarter fiscal 2022, owing to the impacts of the lost production due to factory closures and delayed delivery times for the holiday and spring seasons. The company expects the lost weeks of production and the longer transit times to result in short-term inventory shortages in the market over the next few quarters.The company expects all of its geographic regions to be impacted by the difficult dynamics. However, some geographies in Asia, with less in-transit inventory at the end of the fiscal first quarter, are likely to witness uneven impacts in the second quarter.For the rest of fiscal 2022, the company anticipates the strong market demand to exceed the available supplies. Nonetheless, it remains optimistic of the inventory supply availability to improve going into fiscal 2023.The gross margin is now estimated to expand 125 bps in fiscal 2022, which is at the low-end of previously mentioned 125-150 bps growth. This growth is likely to be driven by the continued shift to the higher-margin NIKE Direct business, sustained strong full-priced sales and price increases in the second half. This is expected to be partly offset by 100 bps of incremental transportation, logistics and airfreight costs to move inventory in the current environment. The company now expects lower foreign currency tailwinds on gross margin in fiscal 2022, estimated at 60 bps.For the fiscal second quarter, it expects gross margin to expand at a lower rate than fiscal 2022 due to higher planned airfreight investments for the holiday season.The company expects SG&A growth in the mid-to-high teens for fiscal 2022. Earlier, it expected SG&A growth to slightly surpass revenue growth. The rise in SG&A expenses is likely to be driven by spends related to sporting events and investments against its largest opportunities. The effective tax rate is estimated to be in the mid-teens.Despite the near-term challenges, the company stated that it remains on track to reach its long-term financial targets for fiscal 2025 outlined in fourth-quarter fiscal 2021.3 Better-Ranked Stocks to WatchSteven Madden, Ltd. SHOO has a long-term earnings growth rate of 15%. It currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Carter’s, Inc. CRI has a long-term earnings growth rate of 21.1% and it flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 at present.Wolverine World Wide, Inc. WWW has a long-term earnings growth rate of 10%. The company currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report NIKE, Inc. (NKE): Free Stock Analysis Report Wolverine World Wide, Inc. (WWW): Free Stock Analysis Report Carters, Inc. (CRI): Free Stock Analysis Report Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

The Five Most Popular ASIC Miners for Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin mining is becoming one of the most lucrative and innovative sectors of the global economy. According to data, at the height of the current bull run in April 2021, cryptocurrency mining has generated $3 billion in revenue, which means that crypto miners earned $100,000,000 in profit every day on the average. Q2 2021 hedge […] Bitcoin mining is becoming one of the most lucrative and innovative sectors of the global economy. According to data, at the height of the current bull run in April 2021, cryptocurrency mining has generated $3 billion in revenue, which means that crypto miners earned $100,000,000 in profit every day on the average. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get Our Activist Investing Case Study! Get the entire 10-part series on our in-depth study on activist investing in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or print it out to read anywhere! Sign up below! (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Just 5 years ago, the average daily revenue of the crypto mining industry circulated at around $1 million. In a very short time, this number has increased by almost 10,000%, making cryptocurrency mining one of the most rapidly booming markets in the world. But as it became extremely profitable, it has also become very competitive, and choosing cutting-edge Bitcoin mining hardware is now more important than ever. All Bitcoin mining is now done using ASICs - specialised Bitcoin mining hardware housed in thermally-controlled data centres with access to cheap power. ASICs are the next step in the development of crypto mining after CPUs, GPUs, and FPGAs: they are able to accomplish the same thing in a much more efficient and profitable way. The days when anybody could successfully mine cryptocurrency at home on their PCs are long gone. Whether you're mining Bitcoin, Litecoin, DASH, or a variety of other digital currencies, an ASIC miner is the most effective method to mine crypto. Because of the rapidly increasing profitability of cryptocurrency mining enterprises, the worldwide crypto mining hardware industry is anticipated to expand to more than USD 2.80 billion between 2020 and 2024. There are many reasons why the crypto mining sector is expanding so quickly: the growing acceptance of cryptocurrency by retailers, massive investments made by large semiconductor companies in mining-specific hardware, and the increasing demand for equipment manufactured in China. These trends will further add to the growth of the cryptocurrency mining hardware market size in the near future, which will also increase the competitiveness of crypto mining. Fortunately, choosing the best crypto mining hardware will allow you to become a lucrative Bitcoin miner. By reading this article you'll be able to discover the advantages and disadvantages of the five most popular ASIC mining machines on the market. Because so many individuals and businesses are entering the crypto mining ecosystem, ASICs are now in high demand and they have become quite expensive. When purchasing an ASIC, the most important thing to consider is its efficiency - the number of BTC that can be generated per day minus costs such as electricity bills and mining pool fees. Picking an efficient ASIC will help you receive a return on your initial investment as soon as possible. For best efficiency, a top-quality PSU (power supply) is usually required in addition to the AIC unit. We've listed the current pricing, hash rate, and power usage of each device to help you make your decision. We evaluate the best bitcoin mining ASIC devices based on reputation, functionality, the convenience of usage, and other factors. While we have extensively discussed different ASICs in this article, the question you may face, where to buy these from. Among the available options, we have seen CoinMiningDirect, a distributor of affordable and efficient crypto mining hardware based in Sweden (with a warehouse in the US), offering a variety of powerful Bitcoin mining machines. If you decide to purchase any of the ASICs listed below, CoinMiningDirect may be the preferable option as it claims to ensure maximally reliability as they work on the mission to make mining devices accessible to average people. We also found their promised fast delivery to be worth going for. Bitmain Antminer S19 Pro (110TH/s) Specifications Cost: $9,799.95 – $12,999. Power usage: 3,250W Hash power: 110TH/sec While its availability is limited and the initial costs can be quite prohibitive, the Bitmain Antminer S19 Pro is definitely one of the most sophisticated ASICs available on the market, and will be an excellent choice of Bitcoin mining hardware, assuming that you have good access to a source of cheap electricity. The S19 achieves a decent mix between power and cost, and if you can afford it the S19 Pro model will be able to turn out an even more impressive 115 TH/s. If your goal is to mine any cryptocurrency you prefer at optimum efficiency regardless of the cost of initial investment, Bitmain Antminer will be the right choice for you. The Antminer S19 Pro with the hash power of 115TH/sec is by far the most advanced model, but Antminer S19, Antminer S17, Antminer T1, Antminer S9 and Antminer S17 Pro are also worth considering if you're looking for something slightly more affordable. The S19 Pro is set up in the same way as the S19, which means that it's very easy to configure and maintain. Antminer's MinerLink GUI is exceptionally simple, and all you'll need to do to configure the ASIC is to type in your mining pool credentials. However, it's important to note that the only available connection method for Antminer S19 Pro is Ethernet. The device starts working automatically after it is powered up, which might be helpful if you expect power outages to happen. Given the current situation on the crypto market, Bitmain Antminer S19 Pro can generate a profit of approximately 2,000$ a year. Check out the Bitmain Antminer S19 Pro here Canaan AvalonMiner 1246 Specifications Power uage: 3.43KW Hash Power: 90Th/sec Cost: $4,000-$5,300 Canaan was one of the first companies to produce ASIC miners for commercial use, and over the years it has established a solid market presence and great reputation proving their expertise in the field of crypto mining. Canaan's flagship model is the AvalonMiner 1246. With the throughput of 90 TH/s, AvalonMiner 1246 can be compared to the Bitmain Antminer S19 and the Whatsminer M30S. One of the downsides of the AvalonMiner 1246 is its price. It costs around $5,500, which is significantly more than Bitmain and MicroBT's offerings. Fortunately, if you have access to an affordable source of electricity, you will easily make profit with the Canaan AvalonMiner 1246. With the median price of energy in the USA, at $0.12/kWh, AvalonMiner 1246 would enable you to repay your initial investment in just two years. If you're looking for a profitable ASIC which doesn't consume tons of energy, AvalonMiner 1246 will be perfect for you as it only uses 3420W. It's also much quieter in operation compared to the WhatsMiner M30S and the Antminer S19. Pay attention to the fact that the AvalonMiner 1246 functions best between -5°C and 35°C (23°F to 95°F). The temperature range is wider and more similar to the WhatsMiner M30S than the AntMiner S19 series. Checkout Canaaan AvalonMiner 1246 here Whatsminer M3OS++ Specifications Power usage: 3.472KW Hash power: 112Th/sec Cost: $9,900 – $14,000 WhatsMiner M30S++ is considered a direct competitor to the Antminer's S19 Pro because it can generate a very similar 112 TH/s throughput. However, WhatsMiner M30S++ is substantially cheaper than the Antminer S19 Pro - on MicroBT's online store, you can purchase one for only $3,250. With the median power prices in the US, the M30S++ will allow you to make $3,611 while spending around $3,600 a year on electricity. Just like the older WhatsMiner M30, the WhatsMiner M30S++ consumes 3472W and operates at a 38 J/TH efficiency. The best efficiency is achieved between -5°C and 35°C (23°F to 95°F). The M30S machines are smaller and less energy consuming than the Antminers, but they have slightly less hash power than their Antminer counterparts. They also use more electricity and convert it to terahashes less efficiently. Despite this, in the long term MicroBT's WhatsMiner can provide higher hashing power per dollar invested. Another advantage of WhatsMiner ASICs is the fact that they are much easier to obtain than Antminers. Overall, the WhatsMiner M30S series is an outstanding Bitcoin miner - it can provide hashing power that rivals Antminers with a much smaller initial investment required. Check out the Whatsminer M3OS++ here AvalanMiner 1166 Pro Specifications Power usage: 3.4KW Hash power: 81 TH/sec Cost: $2,200-$2,850 The AvalonMiner A1166 Pro is massively popular because it provides high hash rate and small power consumption at a very low price. The AvalonMiner 1166 Pro has a maximum hash rate of 81TH/s, and consumes 3276W of electricity. Not only is the device itself relatively cheap, but it also has one of the most efficient rate of converting electricity to hashpower, overall making it one of the most economical ASIC choices on the market. Profitability of the AvalonMiner A1166 Pro is estimated to be $2.77 per day, $83.10 per month, and $1,011.05 per year with current energy and crypto prices, which clearly makes the A1166 Pro one of the most lucrative ASICs. Since it's also relatively cheap, it will be a great choice for new miners who want to join the crypto mining community and are looking for their first cryptocurrency mining hardware. Sadly, Canaan seems to have cut some corners to keep it inexpensive, because just 180 days of guarantee are provided. Furthermore, if you want to purchase the Avalon Miner A1166 Pro straight from the manufacturer, you must order at least five machines. The set of five A1166 Pros would produce 405 TH/s and generate around 115 dollars a day. Please note that the noise produced by the Antminer A1166 Pro is very high compared to other ASICs, which make many crypto mining experts consider it more suited for industrial crypto mining than small scale cryptocurrency mining operations. Check out the AvalaanMiner 1166 pro here Ebang EBIT E11++ Specifications Power usage: 2KW Hash power: 44 TH/sec Cost: $2,024 Ebang Ebit E11++ generates a maximum hashrate of 44TH/s while consuming 1.98KW of power and includes a power supply unit. It's a great ASIC for people who want a less energy consuming device, even at a cost of lower hashrate than that provided by the competition. If you live in an area with high energy prices, the Ebang Ebit E11++ might be the best option for you. The included power supply is very efficient, and it also utilises a separate heat sink with state-of-the-art bonds, which can provide an excellent rate of heat dissipation. Unfortunately, like many cheaper ASICs, the Ebang Ebit E11++ model is also very loud. The device's noise level is 75db, which means that it's not really suitable in a home context for miners wanting to install their mining appliances where they live. The E11++ model is constructed on a 10nm chipset with a one-year guarantee (half a year for the entire machine, one for the controller). The relatively short guarantee period is also something typical to less expensive ASICs. The Ebang Ebit E11++ was launched in 2018 and is still profitable today - the current profit ratio is estimated to be 78%, and the annual return is 77% of the initial investment. The performance and results are satisfactory to crypto miners who want an affordable ASIC with relatively low energy consumption - but when it comes to pure hashrate efficiency, the E11++ is much less attractive than more expensive ASICs such as the AvalonMiner A1166 Pro Check out Ebang EBIT E11++ here Updated on Sep 24, 2021, 10:09 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 24th, 2021

Housing Market Can Look Forward to a More Boring 2022

The pandemic tormented homebuyers and builders with blistering demand, soaring prices, supply shortages, and then a slump. Next year those bumps should smooth out......»»

Category: topSource: washpostSep 24th, 2021

Mortgage Rates: Little Movement Amid Slowdown in Global Economic Growth

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) was recently released, reporting that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate (FRM) averaged 2.88®. Mortgage details: – 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.88% with an average 0.7 point for the week ending Sept. 23, 2021, up slightly from last week when it averaged 2.86%. Last year, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.90%. – […] The post Mortgage Rates: Little Movement Amid Slowdown in Global Economic Growth appeared first on RISMedia. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) was recently released, reporting that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate (FRM) averaged 2.88®. Mortgage details: – 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.88% with an average 0.7 point for the week ending Sept. 23, 2021, up slightly from last week when it averaged 2.86%. Last year, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.90%. – 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.15% with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.12%. Last year, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.40%. – 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.43% with an average 0.3 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.51%. Last year, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.90%. The takeaway: Recent moves from the Federal Reserve suggest that interest rate hikes could occur as early as next year instead of 2023 as some forecasts have shown. While economic progress through stimulus activity is still being prioritized, experts say that by November, the Fed could slow down, beginning to moderate the pace of asset purchases and considering rate increases. “The slowdown in economic growth around the world has caused a flight to the quality of the U.S. financial markets. This has led to a rise in foreign investor purchases of U.S. Treasuries, causing mortgage rates to remain in place, despite the increasing dispersion of inflation across different consumer goods and services.” “On the housing front, homebuyers continue to snap up available inventory, which has improved modestly, and home price growth is moderating. However, the next few months will be choppy as several home builders are signaling that they are going to deliver less supply amid labor and materials shortages.” — Sam Khater, Chief Economist, Freddie Mac “The Freddie Mac fixed rate for a 30-year loan rose two basis points to 2.88% this week as investors anxiously awaited clarity from the Federal Reserve amid a broad market selloff early in the week. The 10-year Treasury has been bouncing up and down in a narrow band for the last few weeks, which kept rates steady. Yesterday’s announcement from the FOMC reiterated that the Fed will maintain monetary stimulus through a low target rate. However, the Fed also clarified that it will begin tapering its $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, signaling that it views the economic outlook with guarded optimism. Markets are likely to price in expected tapering as indications of a timeline crystallize, which means that the days of sub-3% mortgage rates may be in the rear-view mirror by the end of 2021. “For real estate markets, 2021 has been a year of record-high prices fueled in part by record-low mortgage rates. Moving into the last quarter of the year, the Fed’s stated intent to cut back on asset purchases is likely to begin nudging rates higher. The move will likely be gradual, giving buyers time to take advantage of still-favorable rates amid a growing number of homes for sale.” — George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research,® The post Mortgage Rates: Little Movement Amid Slowdown in Global Economic Growth appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaSep 23rd, 2021

Steelmakers Capitalize Record Prices to Spend Big on New Mills

The recently announced multi-billion projects from major U.S. steel producers reflect the underlying strength in the domestic steel industry underpinned by strong demand and record-high prices. Record-high steel prices and an upswing in demand in the manufacturing sector have ushered in boom time for the steel industry. Some of the biggest names in this space are making big investment to establish new mega mills to leverage the industry’s bull run.Steel Boom Driving Spending SplurgeMajor American steel producers, Nucor Corp. NUE and United States Steel Corp. X recently announced plans to set up new mills in the United States.Nucor, on Monday, announced its plans to construct a state-of-the-art sheet mill having an annual capacity of 3 million tons. It is looking at locations in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia to build the mill.The company is spending roughly $2.7 billion on the new mill that will be able to produce hot-rolled sheet products with downstream processing. The construction is expected to take two years after the required regulatory approvals are obtained. The geographic position of the mill will allow it to serve Midwestern and Northeastern customers and ensure a significantly lower carbon footprint than nearby competitors.Nucor noted that the new mill will allow it to meet the growing need of many of its customers, especially in the automotive market. The sheet mill is the latest in a series of investments made by the Charlotte-based steel giant that are expected to contribute to profitable growth and strengthen its position as a low-cost producer. The company is on track with its other significant growth projects — the Brandenburg plate mill, the Generation 3 flexible galvanizing line at the Hickman sheet mill and the modernization and expansion of the Gallatin sheet mill in Kentucky.U.S Steel, last week, also said that it plans to spend $3 billion to build a new, three-million-ton mini mill flat-rolled facility in the United States. The planned mini mill will integrate two state-of-the-art electric arc furnaces (“EAF”) with differentiated steelmaking and finishing technology, including purchased equipment owned by the company. The continued adoption of mini mill technology will enhance the company’s ability to produce the next generation of highly-profitable proprietary sustainable steel solutions, including Advanced High Strength Steels.U.S. Steel expects to start construction of the mini mill in the first half of 2022 and commence production in 2024. The planned investment is a key step toward achieving the company's 2030 goal of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 20% from the 2018 baseline.The newly announced multi-billion projects from these major steel producers reflect the underlying strength in the steel industry underpinned by solid demand and pricing fundamentals. Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD is also progressing with the construction of its 3 million-ton state-of-the-art EAF flat roll steel mill in Sinton, TX with production expected to commence in fourth-quarter 2021.The U.S. steel industry came roaring back in 2021 after bearing the brunt of the pandemic last year, thanks to a strong revival in domestic demand and zooming steel prices.Coronavirus hurt demand for steel across major end-use markets such as construction and automotive during the first half of 2020. However, demand for steel started to pick up from the third quarter last year with the resumption of operations across major steel-consuming sectors, following the loosening of restrictions.American steel makers are seeing healthy order booking in automotive, notwithstanding the semiconductor crunch. Demand in the non-residential construction market and equipment also remains resilient.The demand rebound has contributed to the significant uptick in U.S. steel industry capacity utilization on the restart of idled capacity. U.S. steel prices are also on an upswing, driven by an upturn in demand and supply shortages partly due to the pandemic.The benchmark hot-rolled coil (“HRC”) prices are shooting higher on U.S. steel mills’ price hike actions, tight supply conditions, low steel imports and solid pent-up demand. Prices are hitting fresh highs, having shot up more than four-fold from the lows witnessed in August 2020 and also nearly doubled since the start of 2021. HRC prices have cruised above the $1,900 per short ton level as the upward momentum continues.The price rally is expected to continue in the coming months on solid demand and supply constraints, which is likely to be exacerbated by a series of planned mill outages and scheduled maintenance.U.S. Steel Industry Looks Set for A Solid Q3 Earnings SeasonRobust domestic demand and the price surge helped U.S. steel companies deliver strong results in the second quarter. These companies are benefiting from spread expansion as a significant spurt in HRC prices has more than offset higher ferrous scrap costs. Higher demand and a favorable pricing environment are likely to help U.S. steel producers to continue the momentum in the third quarter.Some of the prominent U.S. steel producers recently came up with an upbeat guidance for the September quarter. Nucor said that it expects to log record quarterly earnings in the third quarter, driven by strong demand across most of its end-markets and higher average selling prices. Steel Dynamics also sees record quarterly performance, supported by strong underlying steel demand and significant metal spread expansion, especially within the flat roll steel operations.U.S. Steel expects record third-quarter results driven by its Best for All business model, strong reliability and quality performance, persistent customer demand as well as sustained rise in steel selling prices. Olympic Steel, Inc. ZEUS, last month, said that it expects a strong third quarter on strong market dynamics and record-high prices.Nucor, Steel Dynamics and U.S. Steel each sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), while Olympic Steel has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD): Free Stock Analysis Report United States Steel Corporation (X): Free Stock Analysis Report Nucor Corporation (NUE): Free Stock Analysis Report Olympic Steel, Inc. (ZEUS): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

KB Home (KBH) Q3 Earnings Beat, Revenues Miss on Supply Woes

KB Home (KBH) posts better-than-expected fiscal Q3 earnings on strong housing market demand and increased pricing. KB Home’s KBH shares gained a meager 0.8% in the after-market trading session on Sep 22, following the release of third-quarter fiscal 2021 results (ended Aug 31, 2021). Although earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, revenues missed the same owing to supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Nonetheless, earnings and revenues grew significantly from a year ago, buoyed by strong housing market demand.Jeffrey Mezger, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, said, "As we approach the end of our 2021 fiscal year, we expect that our increased scale at a higher profitability level will generate a return on equity of approximately 20% for the year. Looking ahead to 2022, we anticipate another year of profitable growth. With a sizable increase in our backlog value and projected increases in community count and margins, we expect a meaningful expansion of our return on equity that will be further enhanced by the $188 million we returned to stockholders through recent share repurchases."Earnings & Revenue DiscussionKB Home reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $1.64 per share, which surpassed the consensus estimate of $1.60 by 2.5%. Also, the metric grew significantly from the year-ago figure of 83 cents per share.Total revenues of $1,467.1 million missed the consensus mark of $1,560 million by 6%. Nonetheless, revenues grew 46.9% on a year-over-year basis.KB Home Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise  KB Home price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | KB Home QuoteSegment DetailsHomebuilding: For the quarter under review, the segment's revenues of $1,461.9 million increased 46.9% from the prior-year period.The number of homes delivered grew 35% from the year-ago level to 3,425 units. Further, average selling price or ASP increased 11% from a year ago to $426,800.Net orders dropped 3% from the prior-year quarter to 4,085 homes. Nonetheless, value of net orders rose 22% from the year-ago quarter to $2.01 billion.For the reported quarter, average community count was down 14% from a year ago to 205. Quarter-end community count was 210, down 9% from the prior year.Cancellation rate, as a percentage of gross orders, improved to 9% from 17% reported a year ago. Its quarter-end backlog totaled 10,694 homes (as of Aug 31, 2021), up 58% from a year ago. Further, potential housing revenues from backlog grew 89% from the prior-year period to $4.84 billion.MarginsWithin homebuilding, housing gross margin (excluding inventory-related charges) improved 140 basis points (bps) year over year to 22%. The increase was attributed to a favorable pricing environment due to robust housing market demand, increased operating leverage on higher revenues and lower amortization of previously capitalized interest.As a percentage of housing revenues, selling, general and administrative expenses improved 110 bps from the year-ago figure to 9.9% due to higher operating leverage, given strong housing demand.Homebuilding operating margin (excluding inventory-related charges) increased 250 bps to 12.1%. Financial Services revenues rose 34.7% year over year to $5,206 million. Pretax income of $9.4 million rose 2.9% from a year ago.Financial PositionKB Home had cash and cash equivalents of $350 million as of Aug 31, 2021, down from $681.2 million on Nov 30, 2020. The company had total liquidity of $1.4 billion, including $791.4 million of available capacity under the unsecured revolving credit facility.Inventories increased 19% from Nov 30, 2020, to $4.66 billion at the end of third-quarter fiscal 2021.GuidanceFor the fiscal fourth quarter, the company expects ASP of $450,000, indicating an increase of 9% from a year ago. Housing revenues are projected in the range of $1.65-$1.75 billion. Homebuilding operating income margin (excluding the impact of any inventory-related charges) is expected to improve to 11.8% in the quarter, suggesting an increase from 10.7% a year ago. Assuming no inventory-related charges, KB Home expects fiscal fourth-quarter housing gross margin in the range of 21.6-22%. SG&A expense ratio will be approximately 10% during the fiscal fourth quarter. This suggests an improvement from 10.3% in the year-ago period.The company expects year-end community count to improve slightly from the third quarter, resulting in a high single-digit decline in the average fourth-quarter count as compared to the prior year.Zacks Rank & Key PicksCurrently, KB Home carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).Some better-ranked stocks in the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry include MI Homes, Inc. MHO, Meritage Homes Corporation MTH and Century Communities, Inc. CCS. While MI Homes and Meritage Homes currently sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Century Communities carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.MI Homes, Meritage Homes and Century Communities’ earnings for the current year are expected to rise 63.3%, 72.4% and 115.9%, respectively. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report KB Home (KBH): Free Stock Analysis Report Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH): Free Stock Analysis Report Century Communities, Inc. (CCS): Free Stock Analysis Report MI Homes, Inc. (MHO): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021