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Execs at RDU"s big airlines increasingly confident of faster recovery for business travel

The dramatic shift toward optimism for a faster-than-expected recovery in the airline industry is accelerating......»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsMay 26th, 2021

Execs at RDU"s big airlines increasingly confident of faster recovery for business travel

The dramatic shift toward optimism for a faster-than-expected recovery in the airline industry is accelerating......»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsMay 26th, 2021

Futures Slide Alongside Cryptocurrencies Amid China Crackdown

Futures Slide Alongside Cryptocurrencies Amid China Crackdown US futures and European stocks fell amid ongoing nerves over the Evergrande default, while cryptocurrency-linked stocks tumbled after the Chinese central bank said such transactions are illegal. Sovereign bond yields fluctuated after an earlier selloff fueled by the prospect of tighter monetary policy. At 745am ET, S&P 500 e-minis were down 19.5 points, or 0.43%, Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 88.75 points, or 0.58% and Dow e-minis were down 112 points, or 0.33%. In the biggest overnight news, Evergrande offshore creditors remain in limbo and still haven't received their coupon payment effectively starting the 30-day grace period, while also in China, the State Planner issued a notice on the crackdown of cryptocurrency mining, will strictly prohibit financing for new crypto mining projects and strengthen energy consumption controls of new crypto mining projects. Subsequently, the PBoC issued a notice to further prevent and dispose of the risks from speculating on cryptocurrencies, to strengthen monitoring of risks from crypto trading and such activities are illegal. The news sent the crypto space tumbling as much as 8% while cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slumped in U.S. premarket trading. Marathon Digital (MARA) drops 6.5%, Bit Digital (BTBT) declines 4.7%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT) -5.9%, Coinbase -2.8%. Big banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp slipped about 0.5%, while oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp were down 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in premarket trading.Mega-cap FAAMG tech giants fell between 0.5% and 0.6%. Nike shed 4.6% after the sportswear maker cut its fiscal 2022 sales expectations and warned of delays during the holiday shopping season. Several analysts lowered their price targets on the maker of sports apparel and sneakers after the company cut its FY revenue growth guidance to mid-single- digits. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Helbiz (HLBZ) falls 10% after the micromobility company filed with the SEC for the sale of as many as 11m shares by stockholders. Focus Universal (FCUV), an online marketing company that’s been a favorite of retail traders, surged 26% in premarket trading after the stock was cited on Stocktwits in recent days. Vail Resorts (MTN) falls 2.7% in postmarket trading after its full-year forecasts for Ebitda and net income missed at the midpoint. GlycoMimetics (GLYC) jumps 15% postmarket after announcing that efficacy and safety data from a Phase 1/2 study of uproleselan in patients with acute myeloid leukemia were published in the journal Blood on Sept. 16. VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) surges 30% after company says its HPP737 psoriasis treatment showed favorable safety and tolerability profile in a multiple ascending dose study. Fears about a sooner-than-expected tapering amid signs of stalling U.S. economic growth and concerns over a spillover from China Evergrande’s default had rattled investors in September, putting the benchmark S&P 500 index on course to snap a seven-month winning streak. Elaine Stokes, a portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., told Bloomberg Television, adding that “what they did is tell us that they feel really good about the economy.” While the bond selloff vindicated Treasury bears who argue yields are too low to reflect fundamentals, others see limits to how high they can go. “We’d expected bond yields to go higher, given the macro situation where growth is still very strong,” Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist with JPMorgan Asset Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “But we do stress that is a modest view, because we think that upside to yields is still limited from here given that central banks including the Fed are still buying bonds.” Still, Wall Street’s main indexes rallied in the past two session and are set for small weekly gains. European equities dipped at the open but trade off worst levels, with the Euro Stoxx 50 sliding as much as 1.1% before climbing off the lows. France's CAC underperformed at the margin. Retail, financial services are the weakest performers. EQT AB, Europe’s biggest listed private equity firm, fell as much as 8.1% after Sweden’s financial watchdog opened an investigation into suspected market abuse. Here are some of the other biggest European movers today: SMCP shares surge as much as 9.9%, advancing for a 9th session in 10, amid continued hopes the financial troubles of its top shareholder will ultimately lead to a sale TeamViewer climbs much as 4.2% after Bankhaus Metzler initiated coverage with a buy rating, citing the company’s above-market growth AstraZeneca gains as much as 3.6% after its Lynparza drug met the primary endpoint in a prostate cancer trial Darktrace drops as much as 9.2%, paring the stock’s rally over the past few weeks, as a technical pattern triggered a sell signal Adidas and Puma fall as much as 4% and 2.9%, respectively, after U.S. rival Nike’s “large cut” to FY sales guidance, which Jefferies said would “likely hurt” shares of European peers Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for a second day, led by rallies in Japan and Taiwan, following U.S. peers higher amid optimism over the Federal Reserve’s bullish economic outlook and fading concerns over widespread contagion from Evergrande. Stocks were muted in China and Hong Kong. India’s S&P BSE Sensex topped the 60,000 level for the first time on Friday on optimism that speedier vaccinations will improve demand for businesses in Asia’s third-largest economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%, with TSMC and Sony the biggest boosts. That trimmed the regional benchmark’s loss for the week to about 1%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.1%, reopening after a holiday, pushing its advance for September to 7.7%, the best among major global gauges. The Asian regional benchmark pared its gain as Hong Kong stocks fell sharply in late afternoon trading amid continued uncertainty, with Evergrande giving no sign of making an interest payment that was due Thursday. Among key upcoming events is the leadership election for Japan’s ruling party next week, which will likely determine the country’s next prime minister. “Investor concerns over the Evergrande issue have retreated a bit for now,” said Hajime Sakai, chief fund manager at Mito Securities Co. in Tokyo. “But investors will have to keep downside risk in the corner of their minds.” Indian stocks rose, pushing the Sensex above 60,000 for the first time ever. Key gauges fell in Singapore, Malaysia and Australia, while the Thai market was closed for a holiday. Treasuries are higher as U.S. trading day begins after rebounding from weekly lows reached during Asia session, adding to Thursday’s losses. The 10-year yield was down 1bp at ~1.42%, just above the 100-DMA breached on Thursday for the first time in three months; it climbed to 1.449% during Asia session, highest since July 6, and remains 5.2bp higher on the week, its fifth straight weekly increase. Several Fed speakers are slated, first since Wednesday’s FOMC commentary set forth a possible taper timeline.  Bunds and gilts recover off cheapest levels, curves bear steepening. USTs bull steepen, richening 1.5bps from the 10y point out. Peripheral spreads are wider. BTP spreads widen 2-3bps to Bunds. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed back from a one-week low as concern about possible contagion from Evergrande added to buying of the greenback based on the Federal Reserve tapering timeline signaled on Wednesday. NZD, AUD and CAD sit at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. ZAR and TRY are the weakest in EM FX. The pound fell after its rally on Thursday as investors looked ahead to BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s sPeech next week about a possible interest-rate hike. Traders are betting that in a contest to raise borrowing costs first, the Bank of England will be the runaway winner over the Federal Reserve. The New Zealand and Aussie dollars led declines among Group-of-10 peers. The euro was trading flat, with a week full of events failing “to generate any clear directional move,” said ING analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner. German IFO sentiment indeces will “provide extra indications about the area’s sentiment as  businesses faced a combination of delta variant concerns and lingering supply disruptions”. The Norwegian krone is the best performing currency among G10 peers this week, with Thursday’s announcement from the Norges Bank offering support In commodities, crude futures hold a narrow range up around best levels for the week. WTI stalls near $73.40, Brent near $77.50. Spot gold extends Asia’s gains, adding $12 on the session to trade near $1,755/oz. Base metals are mixed, LME nickel and aluminum drop ~1%, LME tin outperforms with a 2.8% rally. Bitcoin dips after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal. Looking to the day ahead now, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,423.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 464.18 German 10Y yield fell 8.5 bps to -0.236% Euro little changed at $1.1737 MXAP up 0.4% to 201.25 MXAPJ down 0.5% to 643.20 Nikkei up 2.1% to 30,248.81 Topix up 2.3% to 2,090.75 Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 24,192.16 Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,613.07 Sensex up 0.2% to 60,031.83 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,342.60 Kospi little changed at 3,125.24 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $77.57/bbl Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,755.38 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.14 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg China Evergrande Group’s unusual silence about a dollar-bond interest payment that was due Thursday has put a focus on what might happen during a 30-day grace period. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target is increasingly out of step with international counterparts and fails to account for structural changes in the country’s economy over the past 30 years, Westpac Banking Corp.’s Bill Evans said. With central banks from Washington to London this week signaling more alarm over faster inflation, the ultra-stimulative path of the euro zone and some of its neighbors appears lonelier than ever. China’s central bank continued to pump liquidity into the financial system on Friday as policy makers sought to avoid contagion stemming from China Evergrande Group spreading to domestic markets. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mixed with the region failing to fully sustain the impetus from the positive performance across global counterparts after the silence from Evergrande and lack of coupon payments for its offshore bonds, stirred uncertainty for the company. ASX 200 (-0.4%) was negative as underperformance in mining names and real estate overshadowed the advances in tech and resilience in financials from the higher yield environment. Nikkei 225 (+2.1%) was the biggest gainer overnight as it played catch up to the prior day’s recovery on return from the Autumnal Equinox holiday in Japan and with exporters cheering the recent risk-conducive currency flows, while KOSPI (-0.1%) was lacklustre amid the record daily COVID-19 infections and after North Korea deemed that it was premature to declare that the Korean War was over. Hang Seng (-1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) were indecisive after further liquidity efforts by the PBoC were offset by concerns surrounding Evergrande after the Co. failed to make coupon payments due yesterday for offshore bonds but has a 30-day grace period with the Co. remaining quiet on the issue. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower on spillover selling from global counterparts including the declines in T-notes as the US 10yr yield breached 1.40% for the first time since early-July with the pressure in bonds also stemming from across the Atlantic following a more hawkish BoE, while the presence of the BoJ in the market today for over JPY 1.3tln of government bonds with 1yr-10yr maturities did very little to spur prices. Top Asian News Rivals for Prime Minister Battle on Social Media: Japan Election Asian Stocks Rise for Second Day, Led by Gains in Japan, Taiwan Hong Kong Stocks Still Wagged by Evergrande Tail Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index Extends Decline to More Than 2% European equities (Stoxx 600 -0.9%) are trading on the back foot in the final trading session of the week amid further advances in global bond yields and a mixed APAC handover. Overnight, saw gains for the Nikkei 225 of 2.1% with the index aided by favourable currency flows, whilst Chinese markets lagged (Shanghai Comp. -0.8%, Hang Seng -1.6%) with further liquidity efforts by the PBoC offset by concerns surrounding Evergrande after the Co. failed to make coupon payments due yesterday for offshore bonds. As context, despite the losses in Europe today, the Stoxx 600 is still higher by some 1.2% on the week. Stateside, futures are also on a softer footing with the ES down by 0.4% ahead of a busy Fed speaker schedule. Back to Europe, sectors are lower across the board with Retail and Personal & Household Goods lagging peers. The former has been hampered by losses in Adidas (-3.0%) following after hours earnings from Nike (-4.2% pre-market) which saw the Co. cut its revenue guidance amid supply chain woes. AstraZeneca (+2.1%) sits at the top of the FTSE 100 after announcing that the Lynparza PROpel trial met its primary endpoint. Daimler’s (+0.1%) Mercedes-Benz has announced that it will take a 33% stake in a battery cell manufacturing JV with Total and Stellantis. EQT (-6.5%) sits at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the Swedish FSA announced it will open an investigation into the Co. Top European News EQT Investigated by Sweden’s FSA Over Suspected Market Abuse Gazprom Says Claims of Gas Under-supply to Europe Are ‘Absurd’ German Sept. Ifo Business Confidence 98.8; Est. 99 German Business Index at Five-Month Low in Pre-Election Verdict In FX, the rot seems to have stopped for the Buck in terms of its sharp and marked fall from grace amidst post-FOMC reflection and re-positioning in the financial markets on Thursday. Indeed, the Dollar index has regained some poise to hover above the 93.000 level having recoiled from 93.526 to 92.977 over the course of yesterday’s hectic session that saw the DXY register a marginal new w-t-d high and low at either end of the spectrum. Pre-weekend short covering and consolidation may be giving the Greenback a lift, while the risk backdrop is also less upbeat ahead of a raft of Fed speakers flanking US new home sales data. Elsewhere, the Euro remains relatively sidelined and contained against the Buck with little independent inspiration from the latest German Ifo survey as the business climate deteriorated broadly in line with consensus and current conditions were worse than forecast, but business expectations were better than anticipated. Hence, Eur/Usd is still stuck in a rut and only briefly/fractionally outside 1.1750-00 parameters for the entire week, thus far, as hefty option expiry interest continues to keep the headline pair in check. However, there is significantly less support or gravitational pull at the round number today compared to Thursday as ‘only’ 1.3 bn rolls off vs 4.1 bn, and any upside breach could be capped by 1.1 bn between 1.1765-85. CAD/NZD/AUD - Some payback for the non-US Dollars following their revival, with the Loonie waning from 1.2650+ peaks ahead of Canadian budget balances, though still underpinned by crude as WTI hovers around Usd 73.50/brl and not far from decent option expiries (from 1.2655-50 and 1.2625-30 in 1.4 bn each). Similarly, the Kiwi has faded after climbing to within single digits of 0.7100 in wake of NZ trade data overnight revealing a much wider deficit as exports slowed and imports rose, while the Aussie loses grip of the 0.7300 handle and skirts 1.1 bn option expiries at 0.7275. CHF/GBP/JPY - The Franc is fairly flat and restrained following a dovish SNB policy review that left in lagging somewhat yesterday, with Usd/Chf and Eur/Chf straddling 0.9250 and 1.0850 respectively, in contrast to Sterling that is paring some hawkish BoE momentum, as Cable retreats to retest bids circa 1.3700 and Eur/Gbp bounces from sub-0.8550. Elsewhere, the Yen has not been able to fend off further downside through 110.00 even though Japanese participants have returned to the fray after the Autumn Equinox holiday and reports suggest some COVID-19 restrictions may be lifted in 13 prefectures on a trial basis. SCANDI/EM/PM/CRYPTO - A slight change in the pecking order in Scandi-land as the Nok loses some post-Norges Bank hike impetus and the Sek unwinds a bit of its underperformance, but EM currencies are bearing the brunt of the aforementioned downturn in risk sentiment and firmer Usd, with the Zar hit harder than other as Gold is clings to Usd 1750/oz and Try down to deeper post-CBRT rate cut lows after mixed manufacturing sentiment and cap u readings. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being shackled by the latest Chinese crackdown on mining and efforts to limit risks from what it describes as unlawful speculative crypto currency trading. In commodities, WTI and Brent are set the conclude the week in the green with gains in excess of 2% for WTI at the time of writing; in-spite of the pressure seen in the complex on Monday and the first-half of Tuesday, where a sub USD 69.50/bbl low was printed. Fresh newsflow has, once again, been limited for the complex and continues to focus on the gas situation. More broadly, no update as of yet on the Evergrande interest payment and by all accounts we appear to have entered the 30-day grace period for this and, assuming catalysts remain slim, updates on this will may well dictate the state-of-play. Schedule wise, the session ahead eyes significant amounts of central bank commentary but from a crude perspective the weekly Baker Hughes rig count will draw attention. On the weather front, Storm Sam has been upgraded to a Hurricane and is expected to rapidly intensify but currently remains someway into the mid-Atlantic. Moving to metals, LME copper is pivoting the unchanged mark after a mixed APAC lead while attention is on Glencore’s CSA copper mine, which it has received an offer for; the site in 2020 produced circa. 46k/T of copper which is typically exported to Asia smelters. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are firmer but have been very contained and remain well-within overnight ranges thus far. Which sees the yellow metal holding just above the USD 1750/oz mark after a brief foray below the level after the US-close. US Event Calendar 10am: Aug. New Home Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0% 10am: Aug. New Home Sales, est. 715,000, prior 708,000 Central Bank Speakers 8:45am: Fed’s Mester Discusses the Economic Outlook 10am: Powell, Clarida and Bowman Host Fed Listens Event 10:05am: Fed’s George Discusses Economic Outlook 12pm: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Equitable Community Development DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap WFH today is a bonus as it’s time for the annual ritual at home where the latest, sleekest, shiniest iPhone model arrives in the post and i sheepishly try to justify to my wife when I get home why I need an incremental upgrade. This year to save me from the Spanish Inquisition I’m going to intercept the courier and keep quiet. Problem is that such speed at intercepting the delivery will be logistically challenging as I remain on crutches (5 weeks to go) and can’t grip properly with my left hand due to an ongoing trapped nerve. I’m very glad I’m not a racehorse. Although hopefully I can be put out to pasture in front of the Ryder Cup this weekend. The big news of the last 24 hours has been a galloping global yield rise worthy of the finest thoroughbred. A hawkish Fed meeting, with the dots increasing and the end of QE potentially accelerated, didn’t quite have the ability to move markets but the global dam finally broke yesterday with Norway being the highest profile developed country to raise rates this cycle (expected), but more importantly a Bank of England meeting that saw the market reappraise rate hikes. Looking at the specific moves, yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +13.0bps to 1.430% in their biggest daily increase since 25 February, as both higher real rates (+7.9bps) and inflation breakevens (+4.9bps) drove the advance. US 10yr yields had been trading in a c.10bp range for the last month before breaking out higher, though they have been trending higher since dropping as far as 1.17% back in early-August. US 30yr yields rose +13.2bps, which was the biggest one day move in long dated yields since March 17 2020, which was at the onset of the pandemic and just days after the Fed announced it would be starting the current round of QE. The large selloff in US bonds saw the yield curve steepen and the long-end give back roughly half of the FOMC flattening from the day before. The 5y30y curve steepened 3.4bps for a two day move of -3.3bps. However the 2y10y curve steepened +10.5bps, completely reversing the prior day’s flattening (-4.2bps) and leaving the spread at 116bp, the steepest level since first week of July. 10yr gilt yields saw nearly as strong a move (+10.8bps) with those on shorter-dated 2yr gilts (+10.7bps) hitting their highest level (0.386%) since the pandemic began.That came on the back of the BoE’s latest policy decision, which pointed in a hawkish direction, building on the comment in the August statement that “some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period is likely to be necessary” by saying that “some developments during the intervening period appear to have strengthened that case”. The statement pointed out that the rise in gas prices since August represented an upside risks to their inflation projections from next April, and the MPC’s vote also saw 2 members (up from 1 in August) vote to dial back QE. See DB’s Sanjay Raja’s revised rate hike forecasts here. We now expect a 15bps hike in February. The generalised move saw yields in other European countries rise as well, with those on 10yr bunds (+6.6bps), OATs (+6.5bps) and BTPs (+5.7bps) all seeing big moves higher with 10yr bunds seeing their biggest climb since late-February and back to early-July levels as -0.258%. The yield rise didn’t stop equity indices recovering further from Monday’s rout, with the S&P 500 up +1.21% as the index marked its best performance in over 2 months, and its best 2-day performance since May. Despite the mood at the end of the weekend, the S&P now starts Friday in positive territory for the week. The rally yesterday was led by cyclicals for a second straight day with higher commodity prices driving outsized gains for energy (+3.41%) and materials (+1.39%) stocks, and the aforementioned higher yields causing banks (+3.37%) and diversified financials (+2.35%) to outperform. The reopening trade was the other main beneficiary as airlines rose +2.99% and consumer services, which include hotel and cruiseline companies, gained +1.92%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.93%) witnessed a similarly strong performance, with index led by banks (+2.16%). As a testament to the breadth of yesterday’s rally, the travel and leisure sector (+0.04%) was the worst performing sector on this side of the Atlantic even while registering a small gain and lagging its US counterparts. Before we get onto some of yesterday’s other events, it’s worth noting that this is actually the last EMR before the German election on Sunday, which has long been signposted as one of the more interesting macro events on the 2021 calendar, the results of which will play a key role in not just domestic, but also EU policy. And with Chancellor Merkel stepping down after four terms in office, this means that the country will soon be under new management irrespective of who forms a government afterwards. It’s been a volatile campaign in many respects, with Chancellor Merkel’s CDU/CSU, the Greens and the centre-left SPD all having been in the lead at various points over the last six months. But for the last month Politico’s Poll of Polls has shown the SPD consistently ahead, with their tracker currently putting them on 25%, ahead of the CDU/CSU on 22% and the Greens on 16%. However the latest poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen yesterday suggested a tighter race with the SPD at 25, the CDU/CSU at 23% and the Greens at 16.5%. If the actual results are in line with the recent averages, it would certainly mark a sea change in German politics, as it would be the first time that the SPD have won the popular vote since the 2002 election. Furthermore, it would be the CDU/CSU’s worst ever result, and mark the first time in post-war Germany that the two main parties have failed to win a majority of the vote between them, which mirrors the erosion of the traditional big parties in the rest of continental Europe. For the Greens, 15% would be their best ever score, and exceed the 9% they got back in 2017 that left them in 6th place, but it would also be a disappointment relative to their high hopes back in the spring, when they were briefly polling in the mid-20s after Annalena Baerbock was selected as their Chancellor candidate. In terms of when to expect results, the polls close at 17:00 London time, with initial exit polls released immediately afterwards. However, unlike the UK, where a new majority government can immediately come to power the day after the election, the use of proportional representation in Germany means that it could potentially be weeks or months before a new government is formed. Indeed, after the last election in September 2017, it wasn’t until March 2018 that the new grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD took office, after attempts to reach a “Jamaica” coalition between the CDU/CSU, the FDP and the Greens was unsuccessful. In the meantime, the existing government will act as a caretaker administration. On the policy implications, it will of course depend on what sort of government is actually formed, but our research colleagues in Frankfurt have produced a comprehensive slidepack (link here) running through what the different parties want across a range of policies, and what the likely coalitions would mean for Germany. They also put out another note yesterday (link here) where they point out that there’s still much to play for, with the SPD’s lead inside the margin of error and with an unusually high share of yet undecided voters. Moving on to Asia and markets are mostly higher with the Nikkei (+2.04%), CSI (+0.53%) and India’s Nifty (+0.52%) up while the Hang Seng (-0.03%), Shanghai Comp (-0.07%) and Kospi (-0.10%) have all made small moves lower. Meanwhile, the Evergrande group missed its dollar bond coupon payment yesterday and so far there has been no communication from the group on this. They have a 30-day grace period to make the payment before any event of default can be declared. This follows instructions from China’s Financial regulators yesterday in which they urged the group to take all measures possible to avoid a near-term default on dollar bonds while focusing on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors. Yields on Australia and New Zealand’s 10y sovereign bonds are up +14.5bps and +11.3bps respectively this morning after yesterday’s move from their western counterparts. Yields on 10y USTs are also up a further +1.1bps to 1.443%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.04% while those on the Stoxx 50 are down -0.10%. In terms of overnight data, Japan’s August CPI printed at -0.4% yoy (vs. -0.3% yoy expected) while core was unchanged in line with expectations. We also received Japan’s flash PMIs with the services reading at 47.4 (vs. 42.9 last month) while the manufacturing reading came in at 51.2 (vs. 52.7 last month). In pandemic related news, Jiji reported that Japan is planning to conduct trials of easing Covid restrictions, with 13 prefectures indicating they’d like to participate. This is likely contributing to the outperformance of the Nikkei this morning. Back to yesterday now, and one of the main highlights came from the flash PMIs, which showed a continued deceleration in growth momentum across Europe and the US, and also underwhelmed relative to expectations. Running through the headline numbers, the Euro Area composite PMI fell to 56.1 (vs. 58.5 expected), which is the lowest figure since April, as both the manufacturing (58.7 vs 60.3 expected) and services (56.3 vs. 58.5 expected) came in beneath expectations. Over in the US, the composite PMI fell to 54.5 in its 4th consecutive decline, as the index hit its lowest level in a year, while the UK’s composite PMI at 54.1 (vs. 54.6 expected) was the lowest since February when the country was still in a nationwide lockdown. Risk assets seemed unperturbed by the readings, and commodities actually took another leg higher as they rebounded from their losses at the start of the week. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index rose +1.12% as Brent crude oil (+1.39%) closed at $77.25/bbl, which marked its highest closing level since late 2018, while WTI (+1.07%) rose to $73.30/bbl, so still a bit beneath its recent peak in July. However that is a decent rebound of roughly $11/bbl since its recent low just over a month ago. Elsewhere, gold (-1.44%) took a knock amidst the sharp move higher in yields, while European natural gas prices subsidised for a third day running, with futures now down -8.5% from their intraday peak on Tuesday, although they’re still up by +71.3% since the start of August. US negotiations regarding the upcoming funding bill and raising the debt ceiling are ongoing, with House Speaker Pelosi saying that the former, also called a continuing resolution, will pass “both houses by September 30,” and fund the government through the first part of the fiscal year, starting October 1. Treasury Secretary Yellen has said the US will likely breach the debt ceiling sometime in the next month if Congress does not increase the level, and because Republicans are unwilling to vote to raise the ceiling, Democrats will have to use the once-a-fiscal-year tool of budget reconciliation to do so. However Democrats, are also using that process for the $3.5 trillion dollar economic plan that makes up the bulk of the Biden agenda, and have not been able to get full party support yet. During a joint press conference with Speaker Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that Democrats have a “framework” to pay for the Biden Economic agenda, which would imply that the broad outline of a deal was reached between the House, Senate and the White House. However, no specifics were mentioned yesterday. With Democrats looking to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill early next week, negotiations today and this weekend on the potential reconciliation package will be vital. Looking at yesterday’s other data, the weekly initial jobless claims from the US for the week through September 18 unexpectedly rose to 351k (vs. 320k expected), which is the second week running they’ve come in above expectations. Separately, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index fell to 0.29 in August (vs. 0.50 expected), and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index also fell more than expected to 22 in September (vs. 25 expected). To the day ahead now, and data highlights include the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany for September, along with Italian consumer confidence for September and US new home sales for August. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/24/2021 - 08:12.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 24th, 2021

Can Consumer Discretionary ETFs Make Good Bets for Q4?

The recovering U.S. economy and progress in coronavirus vaccine rollout are expected to increasingly drive investors toward the consumer discretionary sector. Wall Street is seeing some strength amid September’s dull performance so far. The easing of China’s property market-related tensions and the absence of any hint on an immediate move to taper the bond purchasing program and keeping the benchmark interest rates unchanged have been supporting the market rally.Investors are still on the edge with concerns over the rising inflationary levels, possibilities of a tax hike and spike in coronavirus cases. Amid the current market environment, investors looking to rake in some good returns can consider the consumer discretionary sector.The U.S. consumer sentiment marginally improved despite the rising concerns about the surging coronavirus cases and the rising inflationary levels. The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment inched up to 71 in September from 70.3 last month, per a BloombergQuint article.The strength in consumer sentiment can be the major driving force behind the solid performance by the consumer discretionary space as consumers are expected to splurge this holiday season after being restricted for more than a year.The latest retail sales data has surprised investors pleasantly. The metric inched up 0.7% sequentially in August 2021 against market expectations of a 0.8% decline, per a CNBC article. Online retail sales rose 5.3% last month after dropping 4.6% in July, per the Reuters article. There was an increase in clothing sales as well as that of building material and furniture in the previous month.According to Mastercard SpendingPulse,  U.S. retail sales — excluding automotive and gas — for the “75 Days of Christmas” spanning from Oct 11 to Dec 24 are anticipated to increase 6.8% from the year-earlier tally.The progress in coronavirus vaccine rollout is presenting a strong case in favor of a faster return to normalcy and economic recovery. The FDA has approved emergency use of a booster dose of the Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and BioNTech SE (BNTX) COVID-19 vaccine. President Joe Biden has also outlined a very effective plan to accelerate the vaccination rate and control the coronavirus outbreak. He has made it mandatory for federal employees to get the COVID-19 vaccination, per a CNBC article. The Biden government will also issue guidelines to the Labor Department for imposing vaccine mandates for employers with more than 100 employees or run weekly tests.The United States will likely relax travel restrictions for international visitors who are vaccinated against COVID-19 in November, including those from the U.K. and EU, the White House said recently, per a CNBC article. Foreigners visiting the United States will have to present a vaccination proof and a negative COVID-19 test taken within three days of departure.  The latest White House announcement came post the peak summer travel season, which signals at strong holiday travel demand.Notably, a number of restaurants and retailers that have resumed business after restrictions were relaxed in the United States should see some accelerated demand and footfall. Also, the leisure and entertainment space should see a rebound as casinos and amusement parks have started welcoming visitors.ETFs to ConsiderAlong with the other favorable factors as mentioned above, the moderate improvement in consumer sentiment is likely to boost the consumer discretionary sector. Below, we have highlighted the four most popular ones that target the broader consumer discretionary sector (see all Consumer Discretionary ETFs):The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund XLYThis is the largest and most popular product in the consumer discretionary space, with AUM of $20.08 billion. It tracks the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index. The fund charges 12 basis points (bps) in fees per year and carries a Zacks ETF Rank #2 (Buy), with a Medium-risk outlook (read: Will ETFs Gain as US Consumer Sentiment Improves in September?).Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF VCRThis fund currently follows the MSCI US Investable Market Consumer Discretionary 25/50 Index. VCR charges investors 10 bps in annual fees. The product has managed $6.54 billion in its asset base and carries a Zacks ETF Rank #1 (Strong Buy), with a Medium-risk outlook (read: ETF Areas to Gain From the Upcoming Holiday Shopping Season).First Trust Consumer Discretionary AlphaDEX Fund FXDThis fund tracks the StrataQuant Consumer Discretionary Index, which employs the AlphaDEX stock-selection methodology to select stocks from the Russell 1000 Index. FXD has AUM of $1.97 billion. It charges 63 bps in annual fees and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold), with a Medium-risk outlook.Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF FDISThis fund tracks the MSCI USA IMI Consumer Discretionary Index. The product has amassed $1.60 billion in its asset base. It charges 8 bps in annual fees from investors and carries a Zacks ETF Rank #2, with a Medium-risk outlook. Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. You know this company from its past glory days, but few would expect that it's poised for a monster turnaround. Fresh from a successful repositioning and flush with A-list celeb endorsements, it could rival or surpass other recent Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in a little more than 9 months and Nvidia which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR): ETF Research Reports Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (FDIS): ETF Research Reports First Trust Consumer Discretionary AlphaDEX ETF (FXD): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks15 hr. 3 min. ago

The US could see a brighter fall and winter as COVID-19 cases and deaths decline, a new model shows

Scientists are hopeful that authorizing vaccines for young kids could help prevent a major surge this winter. Customers toast on the Eataly Flatiron Rooftop in New York City on April 15, 2021. Taylor Hill/Getty Images A new model suggests the US's COVID-19 cases and deaths aren't likely to climb higher between now and March. That means the US could expect a much rosier national picture this fall and winter. But hospitals might still be strained in states with cold climates or low vaccination rates. See more stories on Insider's business page. The pandemic has thrown its share of curveballs, but a new model suggests that US COVID-19 cases aren't likely to climb any higher for the foreseeable future, and COVID-19 deaths should steadily decline.That means, nationally speaking, the US could expect a much rosier picture this fall and winter.A model from the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a consortium of researchers across the US, indicates that cases could plummet from their current average - around 127,000 per day - to roughly 9,000 daily cases by mid-March. The last time average daily cases dipped that low was in March 2020, the start of the pandemic. Dr. Anthony Fauci recently told Axios that the US needs to see fewer than 10,000 daily COVID-19 cases before the virus no longer poses a public-health threat. The model also suggests that COVID-19 deaths could fall from around 2,000 per day to fewer than 60 per day by mid-March.The model is an average of nine different projections. It assumes that young kids will get vaccinated at the same rate as teenagers once the vaccine is authorized for them, and that Delta will remain the most transmissible variant. However, a forecast from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) anticipates that daily infections - including ones that aren't picked up by tests - could rise in November after a decline in October. Even so, the forecast still suggests that daily deaths could dip below 1,200 in January, assuming mask usage stays the same."Unless we have another, even more transmissible variant, we shouldn't expect any future surge to be as intense as this one," Jeffrey Morris, director of biostatistics at the University of Pennsylvania, recently told Insider. Vaccines for young kids could help prevent a major winter surge A boy receives the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine at the Clalit Healthcare Services in the Israeli city of Holon on June 21. Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images Scientists previously anticipated that cold weather and increased indoor socializing over the holidays would drive up cases again. But even that probably won't lead to a dramatic winter surge like last year."Things are looking like maybe they'll go quiescent and we'll have a quieter winter," Jeffrey Shaman, director of the Climate and Health Program at Columbia University, told Insider.One reason for hope is that the Food and Drug Administration might authorize Pfizer's COVID-19 shots for children ages 5 to 11 by the end of October. And Moderna's shot could be authorized for young children sometime this winter.Experts are also comforted by Delta's behavior in other countries: The variant appears to tear through a population like wildfire, then fizzle out fairly quickly. That's likely because fewer people are susceptible to infection now than at any other point in the pandemic. "It is very reasonable to expect fewer severe cases this upcoming winter compared to the previouswinter, and compared to our current situation, because we have higher immunity now due to vaccine and natural infections," Jorge Alfaro-Murillo, an associate research scientist at the Yale School of Public Health, said.Finally, Delta still seems to be out-competing other variants, including ones that have the potential to circumvent vaccine protection. Delta currently represents around 99% of COVID-19 cases in the US, according to Scripps Research's Outbreak.info tracker."I do feel confident that in the next six months we're going to get our rates down and we're going to be able to have a season where we can gather indoors with other vaccinated people and feel normal, like we did in the summer," Ellen Eaton, an infectious-disease expert at The University of Alabama at Birmingham, said.The US could still have a bumpy recovery, though A woman gets a COVID-19 test at the Utah County Health Department in Salt Lake City on November 20, 2020. George Frey/Getty Images Even if COVID-19 cases continue to decline nationally, some areas will likely struggle with outbreaks over the winter. States with cold weather are particularly vulnerable, since people there spend more time indoors.Many states also face an uphill battle in getting more shots into arms. In West Virginia and Wyoming, for instance, just 40% of residents are fully vaccinated - the least of any US state. It will also take time before hospitals in poorly vaccinated states are no longer overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients. The IHME model predicts that US hospitals could become increasingly strained in December, after a brief reprieve in the fall.But the further out predictions get, the less certain they become."There are too many variables that can change during a pandemic to be able to give approximate forecasts morethan a month in advance," Alfaro-Murillo said.Even the end of the pandemic, Shaman said, might be hard to recognize in real time."When can we start to put this behind us and it just becomes something that we deal with functionally, but we get society back to where we need it to be? I think the answer is we're not going to probably know that until it's in the rear view," he said.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderSep 25th, 2021

Extreme weather disrupted almost half of JetBlue"s flights on Thursday with cancellations continuing as the airline recovers

JetBlue Airways canceled or delayed over half of its flights yesterday, leaving passengers stranded for hours. AP/Elaine Thompson JetBlue left hundreds of passengers stranded after delaying or canceling half of its flights on Thursday. The airline said severe weather in Florida and New England caused the flight disruptions. Weather was a primary factor in delays that occurred over the summer, causing issues for American and Spirit. See more stories on Insider's business page. JetBlue Airways canceled or delayed over half of its flights yesterday, leaving passengers at some airports stranded for hours.On Thursday, JetBlue passengers complained on Twitter about hours-long flight delays and subsequent cancellations, with some saying they were stranded for up to 25 hours."The bulk of cancellations ... were the result of dangerous thunderstorms in South Florida and the Northeast last night and into this morning. This weather leads to airport closures and air traffic control programs. Whenever these weather events take place they can also create residual impacts as we work to reposition aircraft and crews," a JetBlue spokesperson told Insider.According to data from FlightAware, 50% of JetBlue flights were disrupted yesterday, with 44% being delayed and 6% being canceled. The airline had the highest ratio of flight disruptions compared to other carriers, including Southwest and American which only had 20% of flights delayed and 1% and 2% canceled, respectively.Meanwhile, Delta Air Lines, which, according to the airline, has the largest operation at New York's JFK International Airport, only had 17% of its flights delayed and 0% canceled on Thursday. Today, JetBlue has already delayed 27% and canceled 6% of its flights, compared to Delta, American, United, and Southwest that have all delayed less than 10% and canceled between 0 and 1%.Weather was the principal factor in the hundreds of flight cancellations incurred by airlines over the summer. In June, American was forced to slash 80 flights a day after extreme weather disrupted the operation. The airline also cut 1% of its schedule for July to help manage the travel boom as it battled weather and labor shortages.Meanwhile, Spirit Airlines' operation broke down after a poorly timed combination of severe weather and staffing issues, forcing it to cancel 2,000 flights as it fought to get its schedule back on track. Its slow recovery got the attention of the US Department of Transportation, which contacted the airline to "remind" them of passenger rights when their flights are canceled, reported The Points Guy. Spirit was still canceling half of its flights into its fifth day of disruptions, while JetBlue has only canceled 8% on its second day, according to FlightAware.Editor's note: An earlier headline implied JetBlue canceled half of its flights on Thursday. It has been updated.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderSep 24th, 2021

Extreme weather caused JetBlue to cancel half of its flights on Thursday with cancellations continuing as the airline recovers

JetBlue Airways canceled or delayed over half of its flights yesterday, leaving passengers stranded for hours. meric AP/Elaine Thompson JetBlue left hundreds of passengers stranded after delaying or canceling half of its flights on Thursday. The airline said severe weather in Florida and New England caused the flight disruptions. Weather was a primary factor in delays that occurred over the summer, causing issues for American and Spirit. See more stories on Insider's business page. JetBlue Airways canceled or delayed over half of its flights yesterday, leaving passengers at some airports stranded for hours.On Thursday, JetBlue passengers complained on Twitter about hours-long flight delays and subsequent cancellations, with some saying they were stranded for up to 25 hours."The bulk of cancellations ... were the result of dangerous thunderstorms in South Florida and the Northeast last night and into this morning. This weather leads to airport closures and air traffic control programs. Whenever these weather events take place they can also create residual impacts as we work to reposition aircraft and crews," a JetBlue spokesperson told Insider.According to data from FlightAware, 50% of JetBlue flights were disrupted yesterday, with 44% being delayed and 6% being canceled. The airline had the highest ratio of flight disruptions compared to other carriers, including Southwest and American which only had 20% of flights delayed and 1% and 2% canceled, respectively.Meanwhile, Delta Air Lines, which, according to the airline, has the largest operation at New York's JFK International Airport, only had 17% of its flights delayed and 0% canceled on Thursday. Today, JetBlue has already delayed 27% and canceled 6% of its flights, compared to Delta, American, United, and Southwest that have all delayed less than 10% and canceled between 0 and 1%.Weather was the principal factor in the hundreds of flight cancellations incurred by airlines over the summer. In June, American was forced to slash 80 flights a day after extreme weather disrupted the operation. The airline also cut 1% of its schedule for July to help manage the travel boom as it battled weather and labor shortages.Meanwhile, Spirit Airlines' operation broke down after a poorly timed combination of severe weather and staffing issues, forcing it to cancel 2,000 flights as it fought to get its schedule back on track. Its slow recovery got the attention of the US Department of Transportation, which contacted the airline to "remind" them of passenger rights when their flights are canceled, reported The Points Guy. Spirit was still canceling half of its flights into its fifth day of disruptions, while JetBlue has only canceled 8% on its second day, according to FlightAware.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytSep 24th, 2021

AAR Reports First Quarter 2022 Results

First quarter sales of $455 million, up 14% over the prior year First quarter GAAP diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of $0.31 compared to a loss per share of $(0.40) in Q1 FY2021 Adjusted diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of $0.52, up 206% from $0.17 in Q1 FY2021 First quarter cash flow from operating activities from continuing operations of $18 million WOOD DALE, Ill., Sept. 23, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- AAR CORP. (NYSE:AIR) today reported first quarter Fiscal Year 2022 consolidated sales of $455.1 million and income from continuing operations of $11.2 million, or $0.31 per diluted share. For the first quarter of the prior year, the Company reported sales of $400.8 million and loss from continuing operations of $13.9 million, or $0.40 per diluted share. Our adjusted diluted earnings per share from continuing operations in the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2022 were $0.52 compared to $0.17 in the first quarter of the prior year. Current quarter results included net pretax adjustments of $9.9 million, or $0.21 per share, primarily due to a previously disclosed customer contract termination and related asset impairment charges. Consolidated first quarter sales increased 14% over the prior year quarter. Our consolidated sales to commercial customers increased 53% over the prior year quarter primarily due to the recovery in the commercial market from the impact of COVID-19. Our consolidated sales to government customers decreased 17% primarily related to timing as the prior year quarter included significant activity across both our U.S. Marine Corps C-40 and U.S. Air Force pallet contracts. On a sequential basis, consolidated first quarter sales increased 4% over the fourth quarter. Our consolidated sales to commercial customers increased 17% over the fourth quarter while consolidated sales to government customers decreased 10%. Sales to commercial customers were 59% of consolidated sales compared to 44% in the prior year's quarter reflecting the recovery in the commercial market from the impact of COVID-19. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, we announced several new contract awards including: Exclusive distribution agreement with Arkwin Industries covering its broad line of engine actuation and commercial aviation products, which complement our existing engine parts offerings Firm, fixed price contract from the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration for the conversion and delivery of a Boeing 737-700 aircraft Extension of our long-term, component support agreement with Volotea, a growing low-cost carrier in Spain, for its fleet of Airbus narrowbody aircraft utilizing our logistics centers in Europe "We had a very strong start to the year across our commercial business. We saw robust performance in our MRO operations and continued recovery in our parts activities. We also secured new government and commercial program contract awards while adding another exclusive new parts distribution agreement, which we expect to contribute to our long-term growth," said John M. Holmes, President and Chief Executive Officer of AAR CORP. Gross profit margins increased from 12.1% in the prior year quarter to 14.2% in the current quarter and adjusted gross profit margin increased from 13.0% to 16.1%, primarily due to the favorable impact from our actions to reduce costs and increase our operating efficiency. Expeditionary Services profitability increased significantly from 10.8% to 19.0% reflecting the sale of the Composites business in the prior year quarter and improved execution in the Mobility business. Selling, general and administrative expenses increased from $45.3 million to $49.3 million mainly due to restoration of temporary compensation reductions. Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percent of sales decreased from 11.3% to 10.8% due to the favorable impact from our cost reduction actions. Operating margin increased from 0.8% in the prior year quarter to 3.3% in the current quarter and adjusted operating margin increased from 2.5% to 5.5%, primarily due to the favorable impact from our actions to reduce costs and increase our operating efficiency. Sequentially, our adjusted operating margin increased from 5.2% in the fourth quarter to 5.5% in the current quarter. In conjunction with the U.S. exit from Afghanistan, we have concluded our activities in country under our WASS and U.S. Department of Defense contracts. The operations related to our activities in Afghanistan contributed revenue of $67 million in Fiscal 2021. Holmes continued, "I am extremely proud of our WASS team and their work in Afghanistan. Our team played a vital role in helping to evacuate over 2,000 U.S. Embassy personnel over a 36 hour period. This was a very difficult operation in a challenging environment but all of our flights were completed successfully and once our mission was accomplished, all of our AAR team members were safely evacuated. We are very grateful for their service." Net interest expense for the quarter was $0.7 million compared to $1.6 million last year. Average diluted share count increased to 35.7 million from 35.0 million in the prior year quarter. Cash flow provided by operating activities from continuing operations was $17.5 million during the current quarter compared to $39.8 million in the prior year quarter, which included $48.5 million related to our receipt of funding from the CARES Act through the Payroll Support Program. Excluding our accounts receivable financing program, our cash flow provided by operating activities from continuing operations was $25.9 million in the current quarter. Holmes concluded, "Our continued focus on driving operating efficiency and working capital management led to another quarter of sequential margin improvement and strong cash flow. Looking forward, while the U.S. exit from Afghanistan will impact our government business in the near term, we are encouraged by the strong pipeline of offsetting government opportunities such as the recent contract award from the Department of Energy. In our commercial markets, the timing of the recovery has been impacted by the Delta variant, but as we continue to see demand increase, particularly in our parts activities, we expect continued growth and operating margin expansion." Conference Call Information                                         AAR will hold its quarterly conference call at 3:45 p.m. CT on September 23, 2021. The conference call can be accessed by calling 866-802-4322 from inside the U.S. or +1-703-639-1319 from outside the U.S. A replay of the conference call will also be available by calling 855-859-2056 from inside the U.S. or +1-404-537-3406 from outside the U.S. (access code 8294140). The replay will be available from 7:15 p.m. CT on September 23, 2021 until 10:59 p.m. CT on September 29, 2021. About AAR AAR is a global aerospace and defense aftermarket solutions company with operations in over 20 countries. Headquartered in the Chicago area, AAR supports commercial and government customers through two operating segments: Aviation Services and Expeditionary Services. AAR's Aviation Services include parts supply; OEM solutions; integrated solutions; maintenance, repair, overhaul; and engineering. AAR's Expeditionary Services include mobility systems operations. Additional information can be found at www.aarcorp.com. Contact: Dylan Wolin – Vice President, Strategic & Corporate Development and Treasurer | (630) 227-2017 | dylan.wolin@aarcorp.com This press release contains certain statements relating to future results, which are forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which reflect management's expectations about future conditions, including but not limited to (i) the ability of our latest distribution, government and commercial programs contract awards to support continued long-term growth,(ii) the impact of our continued focus on driving operating efficiency and working capital management on sequential margin improvement and cash flow, (iii) the impact on our government business in the near term of the recent U.S. exit from Afghanistan, (iv) the impact of the strong pipeline of offsetting government opportunities on our future results and (v) our expectations regarding continued growth and operating margin expansion. Forward-looking statements often address our expected future operating and financial performance and financial condition, or sustainability targets, goals, commitments, and other business plans, and often may also be identified because they contain words such as "anticipate," "believe," "continue," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "likely," "may," "might," "plan," "potential," "predict," "project," "seek," "should," "target," "will," "would," or similar expressions and the negatives of those terms. These forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs of Company management, as well as assumptions and estimates based on information available to the Company as of the dates such assumptions and estimates are made, and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated, depending on a variety of factors, including: (i) factors that adversely affect the commercial aviation industry; (ii) the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on air travel, worldwide commercial activity and our and our customers' ability to source parts and components; (iii) a reduction in the level of sales to the branches, agencies and departments of the U.S. government and their contractors (which were 44.7% of total sales in fiscal 2021); (iv) non-compliance with laws and regulations relating to the formation, administration and performance of our U.S. government contracts; (v) cost overruns and losses on fixed-price contracts; (vi) nonperformance by subcontractors or suppliers; (vii) changes in or non-compliance with laws and regulations that may affect certain of our aviation and government and defense related activities that are subject to licensing, certification and other regulatory requirements imposed by the FAA, the U.S. State Department and other regulatory agencies, both domestic and foreign; (viii) a reduction in outsourcing of maintenance activity by airlines; (ix) a shortage of the skilled personnel on whom we depend to operate our business, or work stoppages; (x) competition from other companies, including original equipment manufacturers, some of which have greater financial resources than we do; (xi) financial and operational risks arising as a result of operating internationally; (xii) inability to integrate acquisitions effectively and execute our operational and financial plan related to the acquisitions; (xiii) inability to recover our costs due to fluctuations in market values for aviation products and equipment caused by various factors, including reductions in air travel, airline bankruptcies, consolidations and fleet reductions; (xiv) asset impairment charges we may be required to recognize to reflect the non-recoverability of our assets or lowered expectations regarding businesses we have acquired; (xv) limitations on our ability to access the debt and equity capital markets or to draw down funds under loan agreements; (xvi) non-compliance with restrictive and financial covenants contained in certain of our loan agreements, and government funding received under the CARES Act; (xvii) restrictions on paying, or failure to maintain or pay dividends; (xviii) exposure to product liability and property claims that may be in excess of our liability insurance coverage; (xix) threats to our systems technology from equipment failures' cyber and other security y breaches or other disruptions; (xx) the costs of compliance, and liability for non-compliance, with environmental regulations, including future requirements regarding climate change; and (xxi) a need to make significant capital expenditures to keep pace with technological developments in our industry. Should one or more of those risks or uncertainties materialize adversely, or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described. Those events and uncertainties are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many are beyond our control. For a discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties, refer to our Annual Report on Form 10-K, Part I, "Item 1A, Risk Factors" and our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. These events and uncertainties are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many are beyond the Company's control. The risks described in these reports are not the only risks we face, as additional risks and uncertainties are not currently known or foreseeable or impossible to predict accurately or risks that are beyond the Company's control or deemed immaterial may materially adversely affect our business, financial condition or results of operations in future periods. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of such statements or to reflect the occurrence of anticipated or unanticipated events. AAR CORP. and Subsidiaries Consolidated Statements of Operations (In millions except per share data - unaudited) Three Months Ended August 31,     2021       2020                   Sales $ 455.1     $ 400.8   Cost and expenses:               Cost of sales   390.5       352.2   Selling, general and administrative   49.3       45.3   Loss from joint ventures   (0.2 )     (0.1 ) Operating income   15.1       3.2   Loss on sale of business   ––       (19.5 ) Interest expense, net   (0.7 )     (1.6 ) Other income, net   0.7       0.2   Income (Loss) from continuing operations before income taxes   15.1       (17.7 ) Income tax expense (benefit)   3.9       (3.8 ) Income (Loss) from continuing operations   11.2       (13.9 ) Income (Loss) from discontinued operations   0.3       (0.6 ) Net income (loss) $ 11.5     $ (14.5 )                 Earnings (Loss) per share – Basic               Earnings (Loss) from continuing operations $ 0.32     $ (0.40 ) Earnings (Loss) from discontinued operations   0.01       (0.02 ) Earnings (Loss) per share – Basic $ 0.33     $ (0.42 )                 Earnings (Loss) per share – Diluted               Earnings (Loss) from continuing operations $ 0.31     $ (0.40 ) Earnings (Loss) from discontinued operations   0.01       (0.02 ) Earnings (Loss) per share – Diluted $ 0.32     $ (0.42 )                 Share Data:               Weighted average shares outstanding – Basic   35.1       34.9   Weighted average shares outstanding – Diluted   35.7       35.0                   AAR CORP. and Subsidiaries Consolidated Balance Sheets (In millions) August 31, 2021   May 31, 2021   (unaudited)     ASSETS       Cash and cash equivalents $ 48.8   $ 51.8 Restricted cash   3.8     8.4 Accounts receivable, net   180.8     166.7 Contract assets   74.6     71.9 Inventories, net   525.8     540.6 Rotable assets and equipment on or available for lease   52.3     50.4 Assets of discontinued operations   19.2     19.5 Other current assets   39.6     27.7 Total current assets   944.9     937.0 Property, plant, and equipment, net   109.1     120.0 Operating lease right-of-use assets, net   73.6     75.8 Goodwill and intangible assets, net   122.1     123.8 Rotable assets supporting long-term programs   178.0     184.3 Other non-current assets   108.0     98.8 Total assets $ 1,535.7   $ 1,539.7             LIABILITIES AND EQUITY           Accounts payable and accrued liabilities $ 304.0   $ 301.4 Liabilities of discontinued operations   20.2     35.4 Total current liabilities   324.2     336.8 Long-term debt   127.6     133.7 Operating lease liabilities   58.0     59.9 Other liabilities and deferred income   37.7     34.9 Total liabilities   547.5     565.3 Equity   988.2     974.4 Total liabilities and equity $ 1,535.7   $ 1,539.7             AAR CORP. and Subsidiaries Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (In millions – unaudited) Three Months Ended August 31,.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaSep 23rd, 2021

Americans were freaking out over inflation this spring. They aren"t anymore - and it shows they believe in the Biden economy.

Joe Biden has repeatedly sought to ease inflation fears, claiming that its recent surge is temporary. Americans are increasingly buying his argument. Riviera Village shopping area of Redondo Beach, CA. Jay L. Clendenin/Getty Images Google searches for "inflation" have plummeted close to pre-crisis levels, Bespoke Investment Group said Thursday. The slide suggests Americans buy President Biden's argument that surging price growth is temporary. The easing concerns could help Biden's outlook materialize, as inflation is guided by Americans' expectations. See more stories on Insider's business page. Inflation still sits at decade highs, but Americans are less and less worried about it.Just four months after inflation fears peaked, public interest in nationwide price growth sits near pre-crisis lows. Google searches for inflation and inflation-related terms plummeted through the summer and are now roughly one-third the levels seen in May, according to data collected by Bespoke Investment Group. Search activity is now the lowest it's been since fall 2020 and below some peaks seen before the pandemic.The months-long decline in inflation searches suggest a newfound confidence in the economic recovery. For President Joe Biden and the Federal Reserve, the trends were expected. Both said earlier in the year that quick reopening would boost inflation, particularly in sectors where activity completely froze during lockdowns. Instead of cutting stimulus and putting the administration's infrastructure plan on ice, Biden pushed for both. Inflation, the administration argued, would fade even with more government spending. Source: Bespoke Investment Group Bespoke Investment Group And inflation did pick up. Price growth rocketed to its fastest pace since the Great Recession. Republicans seized on the public's concerns, linking inflation to Democrats' $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. And all the while, Americans concerns over surging prices leaped higher.That phenomenon has since abated, and the return to normal levels of concern reflects the public is confident in the Biden administration and the Fed's outlooks.Where Republicans amplified concerns of irresponsible spending and an inflation crisis, the White House sees recent price growth as a side effect of the otherwise healthy recovery. Americans are increasingly siding with the latter, according to search trends.That suggests Democrats have public support as they work to finalize Biden's next spending package. Moderate Senate Democrats have balked at its $3.5 trillion price tag, with Sen. Joe Manchin saying in a Wall Street Journal column that the party should "pause" to see if inflation "is transitory or not" before spending more. Americans seem to be telling Manchin they don't need a pause.Recent inflation reports have also fallen in line with Biden's forecast. Price growth slowed sharply for a second straight month in August as categories that previously saw rapid inflation cooled off. While year-over-year inflation remains elevated, monthly price growth is on the decline.The slowdown could be aided by Americans' easing worries. Inflation is somewhat driven by people's expectations, and fears of permanently soaring prices can speed up inflation. The data, then, signals Americans could be helping the government's inflation dreams come true."If this more recent trend of declining search interest continues, it would further support the Fed's forecast for recent inflation pressures to be 'transitory' in nature," Bespoke said in a Thursday blog post.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderSep 23rd, 2021

Americans were freaking out over inflation this spring. They aren"t anymore - and it shows Americans believe in the Biden economy.

Joe Biden has repeatedly sought to ease inflation fears, claiming that its recent surge is temporary. Americans are increasingly buying his argument. Riviera Village shopping area of Redondo Beach, CA. Jay L. Clendenin/Getty Images Google searches for "inflation" have plummeted close to pre-crisis levels, Bespoke Investment Group said Thursday. The slide suggests Americans buy President Biden's argument that surging price growth is temporary. The easing concerns could help Biden's outlook materialize, as inflation is guided by Americans' expectations. See more stories on Insider's business page. Inflation still sits at decade highs, but Americans are less and less worried about it.Just four months after inflation fears peaked, public interest in nationwide price growth sits near pre-crisis lows. Google searches for inflation and inflation-related terms plummeted through the summer and are now roughly one-third the levels seen in May, according to data collected by Bespoke Investment Group. Search activity is now the lowest it's been since fall 2020 and below some peaks seen before the pandemic.The months-long decline in inflation searches suggest a newfound confidence in the economic recovery. For President Joe Biden and the Federal Reserve, the trends were expected. Both said earlier in the year that quick reopening would boost inflation, particularly in sectors where activity completely froze during lockdowns. Instead of cutting stimulus and putting the administration's infrastructure plan on ice, Biden pushed for both. Inflation, the administration argued, would fade even with more government spending. Source: Bespoke Investment Group Bespoke Investment Group And inflation did pick up. Price growth rocketed to its fastest pace since the Great Recession. Republicans seized on the public's concerns, linking inflation to Democrats' $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. And all the while, Americans concerns over surging prices leaped higher.That phenomenon has since abated, and the return to normal levels of concern reflects the public is confident in the Biden administration and the Fed's outlooks.Where Republicans amplified concerns of irresponsible spending and an inflation crisis, the White House sees recent price growth as a side effect of the otherwise healthy recovery. Americans are increasingly siding with the latter, according to search trends.That suggests Democrats have public support as they work to finalize Biden's next spending package. Moderate Senate Democrats have balked at its $3.5 trillion price tag, with Sen. Joe Manchin saying in a Wall Street Journal column that the party should "pause" to see if inflation "is transitory or not" before spending more. Americans seem to be telling Manchin they don't need a pause.Recent inflation reports have also fallen in line with Biden's forecast. Price growth slowed sharply for a second straight month in August as categories that previously saw rapid inflation cooled off. While year-over-year inflation remains elevated, monthly price growth is on the decline.The slowdown could be aided by Americans' easing worries. Inflation is somewhat driven by people's expectations, and fears of permanently soaring prices can speed up inflation. The data, then, signals Americans could be helping the government's inflation dreams come true."If this more recent trend of declining search interest continues, it would further support the Fed's forecast for recent inflation pressures to be 'transitory' in nature," Bespoke said in a Thursday blog post.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderSep 23rd, 2021

How the $103,000 Mercedes-Benz EQS stacks up against Tesla"s Model S

The German automaker's first electric sedan is coming soon. Here's how it compares to its biggest rival, the Tesla Model S. The Tesla Model S (above) and Mercedes-Benz EQS. Tesla; Mercedes-Benz The Mercedes-Benz EQS, the automaker's answer to the Tesla Model S, hits dealerships soon. It starts at around $103,000, but fancier trims cost upward of $126,000. Here's how it compares to the Model S in terms of range, pricing, performance, and more. See more stories on Insider's business page. For years, the Tesla Model S was the only option for dentists and other deep-pocketed folks in the market for a fancy electric sedan. Not anymore.Today that premium electric car segment is getting increasingly crowded. The Porsche Taycan has been a hit. Its cousin, the Audi E-Tron GT, went on sale earlier this year. And the Air, the first vehicle from startup Lucid, should be coming soon. Now Mercedes-Benz, luxury-sedan royalty, is joining the party with a battery-powered version of its flagship S Class. It's called the EQS, and it hits dealerships later in 2021. Here's how it stacks up on paper to its biggest rival, the Model S:Range and chargingMercedes says the EQS is rated for up to 487 miles of range according to the more liberal European standard for testing EVs. The US Environmental Protection Agency will likely place it somewhere closer to 400 miles. Mercedes-Benz EQS. Mercedes-Benz The Model S Long Range can travel 405 miles on a full battery, according to the EPA. The more expensive, high-performance Model S Plaid gets an official rating of 396 miles. Both the EQS and Model S can add battery range very quickly, faster than many EVs on sale today. The Model S can charge at a rate of 250 kw, meaning it can add 200 miles of range in around 15 minutes. The EQS tops out at 200 kw and claims to absorb 186 miles worth of energy in the same time span.PerformanceThe Model S is wickedly quick in its base form, promising a 0-60-mph time of 3.1 seconds and a top speed of 155 mph. The Model S Plaid steps things up several notches. It delivers a rated 1,020 horsepower from three motors and claims to hit 60 mph in under two seconds, placing it firmly in supercar territory. Tesla Model S Plaid. Tesla The EQS 450+ promises to crank out 328 horsepower and 419 pound-feet of torque. The 580 4Matic boasts 516 horsepower and a whopping 631 pound-feet of torque. Acceleration is accordingly snappy at 4.1 seconds to 60 mph. InteriorTesla was the first to use a giant touchscreen instead of manual buttons. Other automakers have taken that idea and run with it. Mercedes-Benz EQS interior. Mercedes-Benz The latest Model S sports a large landscape-oriented touchscreen in the middle, along with two smaller displays: one in front of the driver and one for the rear passengers. The EQS 580 gets a positively massive "Hyperscreen" that stretches the width of the dash. It's actually one large screen flanked by two smaller ones. The EQS 450+ comes with a comparatively modest 12.8-inch display but can be optioned with the aforementioned 56-incher. Overall, the sedans' interiors are nothing alike. Inside, the EQS isn't sparse or minimal like Teslas are. Instead, it's filled with the wood accents, quilted leather, and glittering buttons you'd expect in a flagship Merc. PriceThe EQS, Mercedes announced Tuesday, will start at $103,360, making it cheaper than the base gas-powered S Class. That's for the EQS 450+ Premium model. I'll spare you all the confounding model names in the middle of the pack, and note that the top-of-the-line EQS 580 4Matic Pinnacle starts at just over $126,000. The base price of the Model S changes regularly, but right now it's $90,000. The Plaid edition, the quickest production car you can buy, starts at $130,000. One advantage of buying the EQS: It's still eligible for the $7,500 federal tax credit for new-EV purchases, unlike Tesla. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderSep 23rd, 2021

The FAA says airlines must crack down harder on unruly passengers - and is giving them 1 week to respond

The FAA has proposed $1 million in fines for unruly passengers, but flight attendant union leader Sara Nelson asked the US for more protection. PROSPEROUS BAY, SAINT HELENA - OCTOBER 21: An air stewardess waits for the steps to be placed at the aeroplane door on the runway at St Helena airport on October 21, 2017 in Prosperous Bay, Saint Helena. Following the introduction of weekly flights to the island, resident St Helenians, known locally as 'Saints', are preparing for a potential influx of tourists and investment as well as enjoying the possibilities brought by much faster transport links with South Africa. Previously, travel to the island involved travelling for a week by the Royal Mail Ship (RMS) 'Saint Helena' from Cape Town. Saint Helena is a 46 square mile island in the South Atlantic which has been under British control since 1834. Leon Neal/Getty Images The FAA has asked airlines to step up their efforts to curb passenger violence on planes. The FAA has received about 4,000 reports of unruly passenger violence between January and September. Flight attendants union leader Sara Nelson has asked the FAA to take more action to protect workers. See more stories on Insider's business page. The Federal Aviation Administration asked airlines to provide information on their efforts to reduce passenger violence within one week.The FAA met with trade groups representing Delta, American, United, and other airlines on Tuesday regarding the country's passenger violence crisis, Reuters reported. The federal agency reportedly told airlines to "commit to take more action" to stop violence on board."Aviation safety is a collaborative effort," FAA administrator Steve Dickson said in a tweet. "Thank you to [Airlines for America], [Regional Airline Association] and [National Air Carrier Association] for your continued partnership and substantial work to help reduce unruly behavior. Look forward to continuing our work together to protect passengers and crew."-FAA Steve Dickson (@FAA_Steve) September 21, 2021The FAA will hold similar meetings with airport and labor representatives, Reuters reported.The FAA has received about 4,000 reports of unruly passenger violence between January and September 2021. Most of the reports related to passengers refusing to wear a mask.Flight attendants have born the brunt of violence on airlines. One in five flight attendants said they've had a passenger get physically angry with them, according to the industry's largest union.Flight attendants told Insider they've feared for their safety due to the risk of violence on board after many have reported being punched, spat on, and called racial slurs by passengers. Attendants said their mental health has declined due to regular verbal harassment from frustrated passengers.The federal agency has proposed more than $1 million in fines for unruly passengers this year, but flight attendant union leader Sara Nelson asked the FAA and Department of Justice for further protection."It is time to make the FAA 'zero tolerance' policy permanent, the Department of Justice to utilize existing statute to conduct criminal prosecution, and implement a series of actions proposed by our union to keep problems on the ground and respond effectively in the event of incidents," Nelson said in July......»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderSep 21st, 2021

Cracker Barrel Reports Fourth Quarter And Full Year Fiscal 2021 Results And Declares Quarterly Dividend

LEBANON, Tenn., Sept. 21, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. ("Cracker Barrel" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: CBRL) today reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021 ended July 30, 2021. Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2021 Highlights Total revenue in the fourth quarter of $784.4 million was approximately flat compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019 total revenue of $787.1 million. Compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 20191, comparable store restaurant sales decreased 6.8% and comparable store retail sales increased 18.2%. Comparable store off-premise restaurant sales grew 108.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 20191 and represented approximately 19% of restaurant sales. GAAP operating income in the fourth quarter was $62.7 million, or 8.0% of total revenue, and adjusted2 operating income was $65.9 million, or 8.4% of total revenue. GAAP net income was $36.4 million, or 4.6% of total revenue. EBITDA was $93.5 million, or 11.9% of total revenue, which represented a 30 basis point sequential improvement compared to fiscal 2021 third quarter EBITDA margin. GAAP earnings per diluted share were $1.53, and adjusted2 earnings per diluted share were $2.25. The Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.30 per share and authorized share repurchases up to $100 million of the Company's outstanding common stock. Commenting on the fourth quarter results, Cracker Barrel President and Chief Executive Officer Sandra B. Cochran said, "Despite the well-known headwinds that the industry continues to face with respect to staffing, commodity and wage inflation, and the resurgence of the pandemic, we were pleased that our fourth quarter profitability continued to trend positively from the third quarter and that our off-premise sales, retail business, and Maple Street Biscuit Company concept continued to outperform.  In addition to these strengths, our impressive field and home office support teams delivered on multiple fronts throughout the year, including cost-savings, the introduction of our new dinner menu and the continued roll-out of beer and wine to our stores, and helped ensure our continued recovery in 2021.  I'm confident that these and other initiatives position us well for 2022 despite the uncertain environment." Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2021 Results RevenueThe Company reported total revenue of $784.4 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021, representing an increase of 58.4% compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020, and a decrease of 0.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.   Cracker Barrel comparable store restaurant and retail sales compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 20191 and versus the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020 were as follows: Versus FY19Comparable Period1 Versus FY20 Comparable Period Fourth Quarter Ended7/30/21 Fourth Quarter Ended7/30/21 Comparable restaurant sales -6.8% 53.5% Comparable retail sales 18.2% 74.8% Operating IncomeGAAP operating income in the fourth quarter was $62.7 million, or 8.0% of total revenue. Excluding the approximately $3.2 million in non-cash amortization related to the gains on the previously disclosed sale and leaseback transactions adjusted2 operating income for the fourth quarter was $65.9 million, or 8.4% of total revenue. Net Income, EBITDA and Earnings per Diluted Share GAAP net income in the fourth quarter was $36.4 million, or 4.6% of total revenue, and EBITDA was $93.5 million, or 11.9% of total revenue. GAAP earnings per diluted share were $1.53, and adjusted2 earnings per diluted share were $2.25. Convertible Debt OfferingAs previously disclosed, during the fourth quarter the Company completed the private offering of $300 million of 0.625% convertible senior notes due 2026, which generated net proceeds of approximately $291 million. The Company used approximately $30 million net, of the proceeds to fund the cost of entering into certain convertible note hedging transactions to minimize the risk of potential future dilution from the offering. The remainder of the proceeds were used to pay down debt under the Company's revolving credit facility. The Company ended the fourth quarter with approximately $327 million in total debt. The Company also paid approximately $18 million to terminate the interest rate swaps that it had been using to hedge interest rate risk on the debt outstanding under the Company's revolving credit facility. We anticipate this action will result in savings on interest expense over the next two years. In connection with the offering, the Company also repurchased $35 million of its common stock. Quarterly Dividend and Share Repurchase AuthorizationThe Company's Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend to common shareholders of $1.30 per share, payable on November 9, 2021 to shareholders of record on October 22, 2021. This dividend represents a return to the Company's pre-pandemic quarterly dividend level. Additionally, the Board of Directors authorized share repurchases up to $100 million of the Company's outstanding common stock. Fiscal 2021 ResultsRevenueThe Company reported total revenue of $2.81 billion for fiscal 2021, representing an increase of 11.8% compared to fiscal 2020 and a decrease of 8.2% compared to fiscal 2019. Comparable store restaurant sales for fiscal 2021 increased 8.4% compared to fiscal 2020, including a 5.3% increase in store traffic and a 3.1% increase in average check. Comparable store retail sales for fiscal 2021 increased 20.9% compared to fiscal 2020. Operating IncomeGAAP operating income in fiscal 2021 was $366.7 million, or 13.0% of total revenue, compared to $103.6 million, or 4.1% of total revenue, in fiscal 2020. Adjusted2 operating income for fiscal 2021 was $166.8 million. Net Income, EBITDA and Earnings per Diluted Share GAAP net income was $254.5 million, or 9.0% of total revenue, and EBITDA was $488.0 million, or 17.3% of total revenue, in fiscal 2021. Adjusted2 EBITDA was $275.4 million, or 9.8% of total revenue. GAAP earnings per diluted share were $10.71, and adjusted2 earnings per diluted share were $5.14. Fiscal 2022 OutlookAs a result of the ongoing business impact and significant uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic, including the nationwide increase in infections and responsive public health restrictions brought about by the rise of the "Delta variant" of the virus, the Company is not providing its customary annual earnings guidance for fiscal 2022 at this time. For the full fiscal year 2022, the Company expects: Commodity and wage inflation in the mid-to-high single digits; Capital expenditures of approximately $120 million; An effective tax rate of approximately 18%; and The opening of three new Cracker Barrel locations and 15 new Maple Street Biscuit Company locations. The Company reminds investors that its outlook for fiscal 2022 reflects a number of assumptions, many of which are outside the Company's control.  1 For the purpose of comparing to fiscal 2019, comparable stores are defined as restaurants open a full 30 months before the beginning of the applicable period.2 For Non-GAAP reconciliations, please refer to the Reconciliation of GAAP-basis operating results to non-GAAP operating results section of this release. Fiscal 2021 Fourth Quarter Conference CallAs previously announced, the live broadcast of Cracker Barrel's quarterly conference call will be available to the public on-line at investor.crackerbarrel.com today beginning at 11:00 a.m. (ET). The on-line replay will be available at 2:00 p.m. (ET) and continue through October 5, 2021. About Cracker Barrel Old Country Store®Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBRL) provides a caring and friendly home-away-from-home experience while offering guests high-quality homestyle food to enjoy in-store or to-go and unique shopping — all at a fair price. Established in 1969 in Lebanon, Tenn., Cracker Barrel and its affiliates operate more than 660 company-owned Cracker Barrel Old Country Store® locations in 45 states and own the fast-casual Maple Street Biscuit Company. For more information about the Company, visit crackerbarrel.com. CBRL-F Except for specific historical information, certain of the matters discussed in this press release may express or imply projections of revenues or expenditures, statements of plans and objectives or future operations or statements of future economic performance. These, and similar statements are forward-looking statements concerning matters that involve risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual performance of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. and its subsidiaries to differ materially from those expressed or implied by this discussion. All forward-looking information is subject to completion of our financial procedures for Q4 FY 2021 and is provided pursuant to the safe harbor established under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and should be evaluated in the context of these factors. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "trends," "assumptions," "target," "guidance," "outlook," "opportunity," "future," "plans," "goals," "objectives," "expectations," "near-term," "long-term," "projection," "may," "will," "would," "could," "expect," "intend," "estimate," "anticipate," "believe," "potential," "regular," "should," "projects," "forecasts," or "continue" (or the negative or other derivatives of each of these terms) or similar terminology and include the expected effects of COVID-19 on our business, financial condition and results of operations and of operational improvement initiatives, such as new menu items and retail offerings. Factors which could materially affect actual results include, but are not limited to: risks and uncertainties associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, including the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and its ultimate impact on our business, levels of consumer confidence in the safety of dine-in restaurants, restrictions (including occupancy restrictions) imposed by governmental authorities, the effectiveness of cost saving measures undertaken throughout our operations, disruptions to our operations as a result of the spread of COVID-19 in our workforce, and our level of indebtedness, or constraints on our expenditures, ability to service our debt obligations or make cash distributions to our shareholders or cash management generally, brought on by additional borrowing necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic; general or regional economic weakness, business and societal conditions, and weather on sales and customer travel; discretionary income or personal expenditure activity of our customers; information technology-related incidents, including data privacy and information security breaches, whether as a result of infrastructure failures, employee or vendor errors, or actions of third parties; our ability to identify, acquire and sell successful new lines of retail merchandise and new menu items at our restaurants; our ability to sustain or the effects of plans intended to improve operational or marketing execution and performance; uncertain performance of acquired businesses, strategic investments and other initiatives that we may pursue now or in the future; changes in or implementation of additional governmental or regulatory rules, regulations and interpretations affecting tax, wage and hour matters, health and safety, pensions, insurance or other undeterminable areas; the effects of plans intended to promote or protect our brands and products; commodity price increases; the ability of and cost to us to recruit, train, and retain qualified hourly and management employees; the effects of increased competition at our locations on sales and on labor recruiting, cost, and retention; workers' compensation, group health and utility price changes; consumer behavior based on negative publicity or changes in consumer health or dietary trends or safety aspects of our food or products or those of the restaurant industry in general, including concerns about outbreaks of infectious disease, as well as the possible effects of such events on the price or availability of ingredients used in our restaurants; the effects of our indebtedness, including under our credit facility and our convertible senior notes, and associated restrictions on our financial and operating flexibility and ability to execute or pursue our operating plans and objectives; changes in interest rates, increases in borrowed capital or capital market conditions affecting our financing costs and ability to refinance all or portions of our indebtedness; the effects of dilution of our existing stockholders' ownership interest that may ensue from any conversions of our convertible senior notes or the related warrants issued in connection with our convertible note hedging transactions; the effects of business trends on the outlook for individual restaurant locations and the effect on the carrying value of those locations; our ability to retain key personnel; the availability and cost of suitable sites for restaurant development and our ability to identify those sites; our ability to enter successfully into new geographic markets that may be less familiar to us; changes in land, building materials and construction costs; the actual results of pending, future or threatened litigation or governmental investigations and the costs and effects of negative publicity or our ability to manage the impact of social media associated with these activities; economic or psychological effects of natural disasters or unforeseen events such as terrorist acts, social unrest or war and the military or government responses to such events; disruptions to our restaurant or retail supply chain, including as a result of COVID-19; changes in foreign exchange rates affecting our future retail inventory purchases; the impact of activist shareholders; our reliance on limited distribution facilities and certain significant vendors; implementation of new or changes in interpretation of existing accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America ("GAAP"); and other factors described from time to time in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, press releases, and other communications. Any forward-looking statement made by us herein, or elsewhere, speaks only as of the date on which made. We expressly disclaim any intent, obligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward-looking statements made herein to reflect any change in our expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statements are based.   CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE, INC. CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT (Unaudited) (In thousands, except share and per share amounts, percentages and ratios)    Fourth Quarter Ended   Twelve Months Ended Percentage Percentage 7/30/21 7/31/20 Change 7/30/21 7/31/20 Change Total revenue $784,405 $495,065 58% $2,821,444 $2,522,792 12% Cost of goods sold, exclusive of depreciation and rent 235,754 150,778 56 865,261 779,937 11 Labor and other related expenses 268,702 187,785 43 983,120 924,994 6 Other store operating expenses 180,333 141,267 28 676,301 614,733 10 General and administrative expenses 36,948 40,950 (10) 147,825 146,975 1 Gain on sale and leaseback transactions 0 (69,954) (100) (217,722) (69,954) 211 Impairment 0 4,160 (100) 0 22,496 (100) Operating income 62,668 40,079 56 366,659 103,611 254 Interest expense 24,964 9,944 151 56,108 22,327 151 Income before income taxes 37,704 30,135 25 310,551 81,284 282 Provision for income taxes (income tax benefit) 1,341 5,069 (74) 56,038 (28,683) 295 Loss from unconsolidated subsidiary 0 0 0 (142,442) Net income (loss) $36,363 $25,066 45.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaSep 21st, 2021

Boeing CEO sees long road to recovery from virus outbreak

Boeing's CEO said Monday that it will take years for the aircraft-building business to return to levels seen before the coronavirus pandemic, which has slowed air travel to a trickle and led airlines to park 2,800 jets......»»

Category: topSource: moneycentralApr 28th, 2020

Goldman Raises Year-End Oil Price Target To $90

Goldman Raises Year-End Oil Price Target To $90 Just days after Goldman's head commodity analyst Jeff Currie told Bloomberg TV that the bank anticipates oil spiking to $90 if the winter is colder than usual, on Sunday afternoon Goldman went ahead and made that its base case and in a note from energy strategist Damien Courvalin, he writes that with Brent prices reaching new highs since October 2018, the bank now forecasts that this rally will continue, "with our year-end Brent forecast of $90/bbl vs. $80/bbl previously." What tipped the scales is that while Goldman has long held a bullish oil view, "the current global oil supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts." Among the supply factors cited by Goldman is hurricane Ida - the "most bullish hurricane in US history" - which more than offset the ramp-up in OPEC+ production since July with non-OPEC+ non-shale production continuing to disappoint. Meanwhile, as noted above, on the demand side Goldman cited low hospitalization rates which are leading more countries to re-open, including to international travel in particularly COVID-averse countries in Asia. Finally, from a seasonal standpoint, Courvalin sees winter demand risks as "further now squarely skewed to the upside" as the global gas shortage will increase oil fired power generation. From a fundamental standpoint, the current c.4.5 mb/d observable inventory draws are the largest on record, including for global SPRs and oil on water, and follow the longest deficit on record, started in June 2020. For the oil bears, Goldman does not see this deficit as reversing in coming months as its scale will overwhelm both the willingness and ability for OPEC+ to ramp up, with the shale supply response just starting. This sets the stage for inventories to fall to their lowest level since 2013 by year-end (after adjusting for pipeline fill), supporting further backwardation in the oil forward curve where positioning remains low. But what about a production response? While Goldman does expect short-cycle production to respond by 2022 at the bank's higher price forecast, from core-OPEC, Russia and shale, this according to Goldman, will only lay bare the structural nature of the oil market repricing. To be sure, there will likely be a time to be tactically bearish in 2022, especially if a US-Iran deal is eventually reached. The bank's base-case assumption is for such an agreement to be reached in April, leading the bank to then trim its price target to an $80/bbl price forecast in 2Q22-4Q22 (vs. its 4Q21-1Q22 $85/bbl quarterly average forecast). This would, however, remain a tactical call and a likely timespread trade according to Courvalin, with long-dated oil prices poised to reset higher from current levels, especially as the hedging momentum shifts from US producer selling to airline buying (a move which Goldman says to position for with a long Dec-22 Brent and short Dec-22 Brent put trade recommendations).   Meanwhile, the lack of long-cycle capex response - here you can thank the green crazy sweeping the world - the quickly diminishing OPEC spare capacity (Goldman expects normalization by early 2022), the inability for shale producers to sustain production growth (given their low reinvestment rate targets) and oil service and carbon cost inflation will all instead point to the need for sustainably higher long-dated oil prices. Remarkably, Goldman now expects the market to return to a structural deficit by 2H23, which leads it to raise its 2023 oil price forecast from $65/bbl to $85/bbl, and the mid-cycle valuation oil price used by Goldman's equity analysts to $70/bbl. Translation: expect a slew of price hikes on energy stocks in the coming days from Goldman. Finally, where could Goldman's forecast - which would infuriate the white house as gasoline prices are about to explode higher - be wrong? For what it's worth, the bank sees the greatest risk on the timeline of its bullish view. On the demand side, it would take a potentially new variant that renders vaccine ineffective. Beyond that, however, the bank expects limited downside risk from China, with its economists not expecting a hard landing and with our demand growth forecast driven by DMs and other EMs instead. This leaves near-term risks having to come from the supply side, most notably OPEC+, which next meets on October 4. And while an aggressively faster ramp-up in production by year-end would soften (but not derail) our projected deficit, it would only further delay the shale rebound, which would reinforce the structural nature of the next rally given binding under-investment in oil services by 2023. In addition, a large ramp-up in OPEC+ production would simply fast-forward the decline in global spare capacity to historically low levels, replacing a cyclical tight market with a structural one. The full report as usual available to pro subscribers in the usual place. Tyler Durden Sun, 09/26/2021 - 20:36.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nyt5 hr. 31 min. ago

I flew American Airlines to Europe for the first time during the pandemic and found it"s back to normal with bad food, uncomfortable seats, and free alcohol

American did a great job of getting me to Madrid on time but the flight was far from memorable. One thing I didn't miss was the bad airplane food. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider American Airlines is one of four US carriers flying overseas to Europe and has recently started increasing services as more countries open to American tourists. Transatlantic flights are pretty much back to normal, besides having to wear a mask. Hot meals and alcohol are once again served in all cabins including economy class. See more stories on Insider's business page. American Airlines is one of the leading US carriers flying between the US and Europe, especially from its international gateway in New York. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider The summer before the pandemic saw American fly to 23 European destinations from the US. Fast forward to the summer of 2021, however, and that number stood at 11 as American wasn't as quick to rebuild in Europe following its reopening. Flying American Airlines to Europe during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Source: Cirium But even still, American has maintained service to core cities like London; Madrid; and Rome, while opening new routes including New York-Athens. Athens, Greece. Shutterstock Read More: American and JetBlue just unveiled a new partnership with 33 new routes combined— here's what it means for travelers And American has proved to be an inexpensive option when crossing the pond, as I found when planning a recent work trip to Doha, Qatar with flights on American, British Airways, and Qatar Airways. Flying American Airlines to Europe during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Read More: Gulfstream just debuted its new $75 million ultra-long-range plane that's also the world's largest purpose-built private jet: Meet the G700 I flew American Airlines from New York to Madrid during the summer of vaccinated travel. Here's what it was like. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Read More: I booked a flight on American Airlines despite the airline canceling thousands of flights this summer – here's how I'm preparing for the worst After recent bad experiences on American, I was a bit nervous to fly the carrier overseas. I made sure to do extra research on backup options in case something went wrong, and even arrived at the airport four hours early. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Read More: I was stranded in Bogotá airport for 10 hours and it taught me the true value of credit card perks and not taking no for an answer But having flown American internationally earlier in the summer, I knew how to prepare. The first step was to download Verifly, American's preferred health passport service that speeds along airport check-in and document verification. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider I submitted all my required documentation and got the green light. As a result, check-in at the airport was less painful than expected as I was able to use a self-serve kiosk to get my boarding pass. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider For those checking a bag, though, there was a bit of a line, as is usually the case in international terminals. I was glad to have only brought a carry-on. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider I was instantly relieved once I had my boarding pass and headed straight to the gate with only a minimal line at security. I felt silly having arrived four hours before departure but as the old saying goes, better safe than sorry. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider One benefit of flying out of American's Terminal 8 at John F. Kennedy International Airport is that Bobby Van's Steakhouse is open, and Priority Pass members through Chase can get a free meal. I had the burger and it was delicious. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Read More: I used a credit perk to dine for nearly free at an airport restaurant and it's my new favorite travel hack The rest of the concourse was quiet as I arrived before the bulk of the evening overseas departures. Even still, there were shops and restaurants open for business in a good sign for the industry. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider I headed straight to the gate after lunch and got my first glimpse at the aircraft taking us to Spain, the mighty Boeing 777-200. American now only flies Boeing 777 aircraft between New York and Europe in a win for business class and first class customers that get to enjoy the airline's best premium cabin products. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Pandemic-era safety measures including social distancing floor placards and plexiglass portions at the gate counter were still on display. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Boarding began around 45 minutes prior to departure in American's standard group boarding procedure. Most US airlines have abandoned back-to-front boarding. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider American's Boeing 777-200 aircraft seat 273 passengers across three cabins, with classes of service including business, premium economy, and economy. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Source: SeatGuru In economy, seats are arranged in a 10-abreast, 3-4-3 configuration that's standard for most airlines flying the 777. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Seat pitch in economy is between 31 and 32 inches, according to SeatGuru, while seat width is a standard 17 inches. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Source: SeatGuru I booked this flight quite late and there weren't too many seats from which to choose that didn't require paying an extra fee. American isn't alone in the practice of charging for advance seat assignments on long-haul flights but I despise the practice as these tickets are expensive enough as it is. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider But to American's credit, there were a good showing of complimentary aisle and window seats towards the back of the plane from which to select. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider And to my surprise, the most unique seats in economy were available for selection. The last three rows on this aircraft are arranged in a 2-4-2 configuration meaning there are six two-seat pairs. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider I thought I had lucked out by selecting one of them but my excitement was short-lived. Simply put, these seats were not the most comfortable for a larger traveler. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider The small width didn't help and I felt like I was taking up part of the seat next to me. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider One thing that could've helped was if the armrest for the window seat was moveable, but it was fixed in place. I was so close to the seat in front of me that my tray table couldn't even lay flat (a problem I didn't have on the other carriers on which I flew during this trip). Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider My top concern was having enough room once my seat neighbor arrived. But I lucked out and had both seats to myself as nobody showed up to claim the other. Flying American Airlines to Europe during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider There was a gap between the seat and the cabin wall which offered some additional legroom and a place to store the pillow and blanket kit left on the seat. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider American is quite generous with seat features on its wide-body aircraft. Each seat has an 8.9-inch in-flight entertainment screen with a variety of movies, television shows, games, and music. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider The moving map proved handy during the flight to keep track of our location. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider A tethered remote is also available to control the system and act as a game controller or keyboard for the seat-to-seat chat function. It also comes in handy when scrolling through content since the touch functionality is quite poor in that regard. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider In-flight WiFi is also available on the aircraft for a price. And for those using devices during the flight, in-seat power is offered through USB charging ports and 110v C power outlets at seats. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider The rest of the aircraft was quite full, which surprised me as it was quite late in the season for transatlantic travel. Some passengers were visiting family and friends while others were starting their study abroad term. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Bad weather in New York wreaked a bit of havoc on the airport but we weren't overly affected. I was quite relieved that our departure was pretty close to on time as I had a connection to make in Madrid. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider The storm did, however, make for some great views as we blasted out of New York. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Madrid is quite a short flight from New York and while I wanted to go straight to sleep, I did want to see what the meal service was like. This was the first time I'd had a hot meal on American during the pandemic. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider As I waited for the service to begin, I had a look at what was on offer in the movie department. American had quite a good selection in all categories, and I ultimately picked "The Vault." Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider First attendants started the drink service first with a selection of soft drinks, juices, wine, and beer. Alcohol isn't currently served in economy on American's domestic flights but it flows freely on transatlantic hops. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider I ordered a club soda along with some red wine to help ease my sleep after the meal. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Next came the meal service as flight attendants quickly passed out the trays. I felt like I was being served in a cafeteria as one flight attendant curtly asked, "chicken or pasta?" Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider I unwrapped the entree to find that not much has changed at all when it comes to American's economy catering. The chicken dish was accompanied by a side salad, cheese and crackers, and a cinnamon dessert bar. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider I couldn't describe the chicken beyond that it was served in a tomato-based sauce. I enjoyed the sides more than the main and was glad I had the burger at Bobby Van's before the flight. Next time, I think I'll head straight to sleep. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Flight attendants were very quick to complete the meal service, though, and got it done in under an hour and a half. The flight to Madrid is only six hours and 30 minutes so every second counts. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Ready for bed with a full stomach, I used the pillow and blanket that American had left on the seat and did my best to get comfortable. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Another downside of the two-seat row is that there's a gap between the seat and window, making propping a pillow up against the cabin wall near-impossible. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider But even then, it wasn't too difficult to get to sleep and I woke just before breakfast was served. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Flight attendants once more came around to serve drinks first, followed by a pre-packaged cold breakfast. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider On offer for the optimistic morning meal included Chobani strawberry yogurt, a raspberry fig bar, and coconut cashew granola. All in all, it was quite standard but still enjoyable. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider The flight to Madrid was nearing its end and I can't say I was upset to see it go. American did a great job of getting me to Spain on time but the in-flight experience was exactly what I expected it to be. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider I did appreciate the modernity of the aircraft and the efficiency of the crew but there wasn't anything memorable about this flight. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Besides having to wear a mask, though, I'd say that American is back to normal on these flights, for better or worse. Flying American Airlines from New York to Madrid, Spain during the pandemic. Thomas Pallini/Insider Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider13 hr. 31 min. ago

Carnival posts $2.8 billion loss in third quarter after the COVID-19 Delta variant caused a slump in summer cruise sales

Carnival Corp, which posted a significant third-quarter loss, said the average ship was only 59% full in August, according to Associated Press. The average Carnival ship was only 59% full in August, the company said. Ruth Peterkin/shutterstock Carnival Corp recorded a $2.8 billion loss in the third quarter of this year, AP reported. The company said sales were knocked this summer due to the impact of the Delta variant of COVID-19. Shares rose on Friday, however, after the company expects soaring demand for next year. See more stories on Insider's business page. Carnival Corp, the world's biggest cruise line, recorded a $2.8 billion loss in the third quarter of this year as concerns over the Delta variant of COVID-19 impacted sales.Associated Press reported that shares rose 3% on Friday, however, after the cruise line operator said bookings for the second half of next year are running ahead of 2019 levels.The average ship was only 59% full in August, Carnival told AP. That was an improvement from 39% in June. The cruise industry has been one of the hardest-hit sectors following the huge disruption caused by the pandemic. Former and current cruise employees recently told Insider how they had to reckon with loneliness, fear, and uncertainty while being stuck in mandatory quarantines. AP reported that the big three cruise companies in the US did not receive the same kind of federal relief that was allotted to airlines. But the future for Carnival looks more assured, thanks to pent-up demand for cruises. In July, it said advance bookings for 2022 were already higher than in 2019, Insider's Grace Dean reported. "We reported a significant loss, so we haven't recovered yet, obviously, but as we look ahead we see brighter days," Carnival CEO Arnold Donald told AP. "If things continue to trend the way they are (with COVID-19 cases), we should see positive cash flow as we get our fleet sailing broadly again."People are spending a lot of money on board, too. The company told AP that while there were fewer passengers on board this summer, they spent 20% more onboard than before the pandemic. According to Donald, the fact that people haven't been able to cruise, or travel at all, could be behind the increased spending. "So they are in a mood to spend more because they haven't had a chance to in a while," he said.Eight of Carnival's nine cruise lines have resumed sailing with reduced schedules, AP reported. The company said it anticipated its full fleet to be operating by spring 2022. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nyt19 hr. 47 min. ago

Here"s why you"re having trouble finding work - or workers - during the labor shortage, economists say

Haven't returned to work yet? You're not alone. Five economists broke down for Insider why people aren't rushing back into the work force. A "Help Wanted" sign hangs in the window of a restaurant in the Greenwich Village neighborhood of Manhattan in New York, Tuesday, May 4, 2021 AP Photo/Mary Altaffer Anecdotes about labor shortages have been popping up for months amidst America's slow recovery. But enhanced unemployment has expired and it hasn't helped end end the labor crunch. Insider spoke to five economists and experts about why workers aren't coming back, and the issues with hiring. See more stories on Insider's business page. America is tired of labor shortages. September was supposed to be the silver bullet month when the end of enhanced unemployment benefits coincided with schools and other childcare services reopening and vaccination rates facilitating a return to office. But if you're not back at work, you're far from the only one.That's because the reality of September could perhaps be summarized in two words: Womp womp. There's another two words, nearly as fearsome: The month told a "Delta story," according to Jesse Wheeler, an economic analyst at Morning Consult."We're still expecting this improvement in jobs and continued economic recovery in the future, but it's basically just on hold," Wheeler said.So if you haven't returned to work yet, or are mulling whether a return to work is the right move right now, you're not alone. In a note released this week, JPMorgan found that just half of the people who lost jobs during COVID are going back to work.As Bloomberg reports, unemployment benefits winding down didn't compel people back into the workforce, echoing several studies showing no connection. Schools are contending with Delta waves and temporarily shuttering. Childcare is facing its own labor shortage, turning away families who need care. Vaccinations are up, but mass vaccine mandates for businesses only recently become a reality."I don't see evidence that the slowing of growth had to do with labor shortages. It had to do with Delta," Heidi Shierholz, the president of the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, told Insider. She added: "Employers really were demanding a lot fewer people in August than they had in the prior month."Insider spoke to five economists and experts about the current messy state of the labor market, and why it makes sense some people haven't returned yet. At the heart of the current labor crunch are major disconnects - what economists call "mismatches" - between what employers want and the people who could fill those roles. Some have moved out of areas where there's need; others have higher expectations for work. But employers are responsible for another mismatch: They say they're scrambling to find workers but they're not willing to pay the price labor is demanding right now. Hiring is a messAs Vox's Rani Molla and Emily Stewart report, the hiring system is a little bit broken too. The current labor market has an "incongruity" between what job seekers are hearing about the abundance of roles, and their actual experiences, according to Vox. It might be a fourth more subtle mismatch.For one, The Wall Street Journal reports that some applicants may be filtered out by the hiring software many employers have adopted. If your resume doesn't have the exact keyword, or, like many workers, you're trying to switch into a related role, you may not even make it past the initial screening.One criterion that employers are filtering by: Whether applicants have a college degree. That could leave out the 70 million workers who are "STARs" - Skilled Through Alternative Routes, according to Papia Debroy, the senior vice president of insights at Opportunity@Work. According to the Census Bureau, two-thirds of American workers don't have a bachelor's degree, with that percentage coming in higher for Black and Hispanic workers.Debroy said that STARs have been increasingly locked out of middle wage jobs in the past decades - roles that are crucial for them to move up the ladder."In many respects, not recognizing that skills are being gained through alternative routes is not just failing these workers. It's failing employers from finding the talent they're looking for, but also it's preventing further mobility for this population," Debroy said. Erica Groshen, senior economics advisor at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations and the former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, told Insider that employers may not be working rapidly to actually fill the record number of job openings."They may say, 'Well, we have an opening and we have it listed,' but they may not be rushing to fill it if they're not sure how the pandemic is playing out in their area," Groshen said. "So they may leave the posting up, but not be rushing."There's still the pandemic to consider In July, Morning Consult found that 3.5 million of the people who left the labor force were planning on returning to work in the next year; two-thirds wanted to start working again within three months."However, a few months later, a lot of those people have put it on hold," Morning Consult's Wheeler said. The intelligence firm's September outlook found that consumer sentiment in August reached its lowest levels since February 2021.That's because taking a job right now still faces all of the calculations of the health risks and childcare considerations of the pandemic, which many assumed would have been resolved by now. It's what Shierholz calls "baby echoes" of the early days of the pandemic. There is, of course, something we have now that we didn't at the start of the pandemic: Vaccines. But, as Insider's Aylin Woodward reports, the US has fallen behind in vaccination rates, ranking 39th in the world. "In places where the pandemic is still hitting a lot of people with low vaccination rates, that might still be keeping some people home," Brian Riedl, a budget expert at the right-leaning Manhattan Institute, told Insider. "The states that are relatively unvaccinated and seeing more Delta variant cases still may see a lag." As President Joe Biden continues to ramp up vaccination efforts and the Delta wave subsides, people might return more. JPMorgan anticipates that 2 million Americans "will continue to drift back into employment," especially as their pandemic savings dwindle.In the meantime, businesses have turned toward one method to make the return pay off for workers: Raising wages. "There's always somebody talking about there being a labor shortage, and yet in a free market economy, the price is supposed to make the adjustments so that the quantity demanded will meet the quantity supplied," Groshen said. "What they're really saying is that I'm not offering enough to get the workers I need."Anecdotally, it seems to be working. The New York Times reported that Jason Hammel, a chef in Chicago, raised base pay to $18 to $24 per hour; he said he hasn't had issues hiring. But some restaurants have raised wages and still haven't seen applicants flooding in, Insider's Grace Dean reported. Groshen said that offering more doesn't just encompass wages - it's working conditions and benefits, too. "If I decide that I don't want to pay the price of an Audi, I don't get to just announce that there's an Audi shortage and this needs government intervention," Groshen said.Joseph Zeballos-Roig contributed reporting.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nyt19 hr. 47 min. ago

Hedge Fund Net Leverage At All Time Highs As No Dips Are Sold

Hedge Fund Net Leverage At All Time Highs As No Dips Are Sold Two weeks ago, JPMorgan's prime desk wrote about 2 main themes among the hedge fund community: elevated leverage levels and low exposure to cyclicals/value that tend to do better when rates are rising. However, over the past week, both of these things have come into sharper focus as US equities suffered one of their larger pullbacks in a while and rates globally jumped higher towards the end of this week.  So what has the largest bank's prime brokerage desk seen in the past week?  According to the latest weekly Positioning Intelligence report published by the bank, at a high level, it seems that HFs are not that concerned about the broader market (nor is anyone else for that matter) with the bank finding that over the past few months, there’s been limited willingness to sell dips.  In line with this, the bank saw neutral flows globally over the past week with small buying on Monday, alongside retail BTFDers, even as professional sentiment tracked by AAII turned the most bearish since last October... ... followed by small selling on Thursday.  But more generally, net flows globally have remained neutral to skewed towards buying in the past 2 weeks with Asia the only region to see some selling. Furthermore, as has been the case for much of 2011, net leverage remains near highs with little change in the past few weeks—net at 98th percentile (of all time) across All Strategies. While gross leverage has come down a little to the 76th percentile, that appears to be more derivatives related and there could be an element of Quadruple Witching that might be impacting this as the largest gross leverage reductions were among Multi-Strat funds. According to JPM, one reason why leverage and flows among HFs might be more neutral this month is that performance has held in relatively well MTD: long-short spreads have been improving over the past few months.  Looking at this month, longs are holding up well, while shorts are down in line with the market. This leaves HFs up slightly MTD, according to JPM estimates. Back to the topic of leverage, FINRA just came out with its latest statistics on Margin Debt which showed them at a new ATH. Given it is up almost 60% since the start of 2020, it begs the question Bank of America asked one month ago: should we be concerned? Not surprisingly, JPM dismisses this indicator and thinks "this alone is not something that is concerning when one breaks down the changes and behavior to account for how the market has been performing." Furthermore the JPM prime desk notes that "this appears to be very different from the peaks in 2000 and 2007 when Margin Debt rose about 50% faster than the S&P 500 over a 12-month period." Instead, to JPM the recent moves seem more reminiscent to what happened in the early 90s. At a more micro level, cyclicals / value / inflation / travel related stocks have all been doing better recently as COVID are falling once more, some travel restrictions are getting lifted, and rates are rising globally.  In line with this, JPM continued to see buying of NA Financials, something that has been noted over the past few weeks, but this week JPM saw Banks getting bought (vs. more Insurance and Div. Fins in prior weeks).  COVID recovery stocks have also been bought but there’s room for more to go as positioning and valuations remain low in many cases (especially among the US COVID – Domestic Recovery basket, JPAMCRDB).  EMEA Travel & Leisure stocks saw strong buying in the past week as the US prepares to drop its ban for transatlantic travel, and net positioning is getting a bit elevated vs. history; however, EMEA Airlines still has low positioning.  Finally, not everything cyclical is getting bought—HFs have continued to sell Energy into strength - despite the recent surge in oil and all other commodities - and have also sold Materials.  Below we share some more details on each of these core themes Main theme #1: Global Flows and Leverage: HFs Don’t Seem Too Concerned While markets have been volatile over the past week, due to the myriad concerns, HF flows remained quite calm.  The reason is that hedge funds have been reluctant to sell dips and that appeared to be the case again last Fri/this Mon as global flows were quite neutral.  However, at the same time, HFs are also not chase the rally as the JPM Prime net flows were fairly neutral on Wed and skewed towards selling on Thurs when markets rallied back. A notable observation is that there appears to be some strategy differences in the past 2 weeks as Equity L/S and Quant funds have been buyers while Multi-Strats have been net sellers across JPM prime.  The selling among Multi-Strats comes as gross and net leverage have started to pull back from peak levels.  The gross reductions among some Multi-Strat funds have been the main driver of the broader “All Strategies” gross leverage figure lower WoW.  However, net leverage was basically unchanged. Furthermore, it appears derivative positions might be driving some of the changes as notional LMV and SMV increased WoW while delta adjusted LMV and SMV fell.   Among Equity L/S funds, who have been moderate net buyers of equities most days MTD, net leverage actually rose slightly WoW and it’s now at the 93rd %-tile since Mar 2017.   #2:  US Margin Debt: New ATHs at End of Aug…Should We Be Concerned? FINRA just released the latest monthly stats on “Margin Debt” which showed a fairly large increase, following a decrease in July.  As Margin Debt is at new All-Time-Highs and is now up almost 60% since the start of 2020, it’s worth asking -as BofA did one month ago -  if this is something we should be concerned about.   In order to answer this, we’ve looked at the relationship between Margin Debt and the markets over time, augmenting the data FINRA has on it’s website with NYSE Margin Debt data that goes back to 1959.  What this shows is that while there is a very big increase recently, it is 1) in line with the markets and 2) seems to be following the general pattern of the past 60+ years.   Similar to discussions of rate-driven VaR shocks, JPM argues that it’s not so much the level of Margin Debt that one should be focused on, but rather the rate of change. On this point, the bank measured the 12M change in Margin Debt and the S&P 500 over the past ~60 years and what this shows is that there is typically a fairly strong correlation over time. In particular, this correlation has been very strong since the GFC, but there were a couple notable divergences in 2000 and 2007 when Margin Debt rose much faster than the market. In its attempt to mitigate concerns about record margin debt, JPM then notes that increases in Margin Debt (i.e. investors taking on more leverage) that exceed the market returns by a wide margin could indicate greater potential for future stress because it might suggest that investors are adding leverage at market highs, but not actually making much money while doing so. Thus, when markets start to pull back, the recent investments start to lose money more quickly than if they had been added when the markets weren’t at highs. Addressing this point, JPM notes that when looking at what’s happened in the past 2 years, we have seen Margin Debt increase faster than the markets on a 12M rolling basis with the difference reaching +28% at its recent high.  However, the recent high in the 12M difference metric was reached in January of this year (perhaps due to the fact that HFs had performed very well in 2020 and had been adding risk throughout 2H20 in particular). Thus, this difference has been falling for much of the past 7 months.  Furthermore, the recent rise follows a period when Margin Debt had generally lagged the market increases; since the start of 2018, margin debt is only up ~40% vs. the S&P up ~70% in price terms. When it looks back even further, JPM notes that there were periods in the 70s-80s when large increases in Margin debt were followed by market weakness, suggesting this isn’t only a 2000 and 2007 phenomenon (left chart below).  Furthermore, one could reasonably ask why the relatively large increase in the early 90s didn’t result in a market pullback.  While there are likely other contributing factors as well, one thing to note about Margin Debt was that it had gone through a period of relatively slower growth in the late 80s, so the rise in the early 90s was somewhat of a “catch-up” period for it.  Similarly, JPM argues that the rise into Jan of this year could also be considered a bit of a “catch-up” period, which appears to be different from 2000 and 2007 when Margin Debt was reaching new highs, even when measuring it relative to the S&P changes.   In light of the above it's hardly a surprise that JPM thinks that while there are many potential reasons one could cite for market caution, "the level and changes in Margin Debt do not appear to be setting us up for extreme market drawdowns like we saw in 2000 and 2007." #3:  Reopening/Recovery Trades Back in Focus? With COVID cases appeared to be on the decline globally, and travel restrictions getting lifted in some places, reopening/recovery themes have been more topical as they’ve started to perform better. On the HF side, JPM Prime has seen net buying over the past 2-3 weeks in both the Domestic Recovery basket (JPAMCRDB) and the International Recovery Basket (JPAMCRIB).  Positioning in both groups remains low on a YTD basis and very low on a multi-year basis for the Domestic basket.  In addition, JPM’s U.S. Equity Research Strategist, Dubravko, recently wrote about this in a recent note where he showed that the COVID Recovery – Domestic basket had seen relative valuations fall back to multi-year lows while COVID Beneficiaries were back near highs. In a similar vein, Travel & Leisure stocks have seen strong performance this week in both N. America and EMEA, along with HF buying as the US said it would remove its ban on EU travel for vaccinated passengers starting in November. The recovery in performance, relative to the market, still has more to go before getting back to  where we were earlier this year. In terms of where the recent buying and outperformance leaves HF positioning, net exposures are nearing average levels among US Travel & Leisure stocks, but are a bit closer to highs in EMEA. Where there appears to be more potential upside for positioning in EMEA is among the Airlines stocks where net exposures is still about 1z below average and JPM has yet to see shorts covered in the group, after persistent additions for the past 6 months. Among US stocks, the rise in rates was accompanied by further buying of Inflation Winners and Rising Bond Yield Winners. Despite the recent buying, net exposure to the Inflation winners remains quite low with net exposures about 1 std dev below average and for the Rising Bond Yield Winners, the net exposure is still slightly below average.   Similarly, a couple weeks ago JPM wrote about how positioning and flows in Value vs. Growth had done a “180” in the past few months as Value had underperformed. Perhaps not surprisingly, US Value seems to be getting a revival recently as the Value factor has been bought in the past 2 weeks. This is coming from both Value Longs getting bought and Value Shorts being sold/shorted.  In line with this, Growth stocks have seen some selling. #4:  Performance – HFs Holding Well in Sep With a risk-on backdrop of cyclicals outperforming defensives, small caps rallying, and rising rates this week (Rising Bond Yield Winners up +5% WTD), Hedge Funds find themselves in the rare position of outperforming broader equity market indices MTD. And with WSB's short squeeze hunts fading, shorts are not detracting from performance as they are generally down in-line with the market; whereas, longs have fared better and protected to the downside.  Among Global Equity L/S funds, net returns continue to track positively with gains of +60-70bps MTD, outperforming MSCI ACWI (which is down -1.2%). The long-short spread has continued to improve since mid-August, driven more recently by shorts selling off faster in September than the market (down -1.3% on wgtd avg basis) and longs holding up relatively well (only down -15bps MTD). Non-Equity L/S funds are also up MTD and outperforming global equity indices, up between +30-85bps. In terms of alpha, longs have outperformed shorts throughout most of September (some reversion over the past 2 days). At a regional level, N. America L/S funds are flat to slightly up MTD, up around +0-30bps and are thus outpacing the SPX. The long-short spread has continued to improve steadily since mid-August but slowed yesterday as shorts outperformed. In EMEA, net returns among L/S funds are positive MTD, gaining around +0.5-1.3% and outperforming the headline European index. Tyler Durden Sat, 09/25/2021 - 20:30.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytSep 25th, 2021

Carnival posts $2.8 billion loss in third quarter after the Delta variant hit summer cruise sales

Carnival Corp, which posted a significant third-quarter loss, said the average ship was only 59% full in August, according to Associated Press. The average Carnival ship was only 59% full in August, the company said. Ruth Peterkin/shutterstock Carnival Corp recorded a $2.8 billion loss in the third quarter of this year, AP reported. The company said sales were knocked this summer due to the impact of the Delta variant of COVID-19. Shares rose on Friday, however, after the company expects soaring demand for next year. See more stories on Insider's business page. Carnival Corp, the world's biggest cruise line, recorded a $2.8 billion loss in the third quarter of this year as concerns over the Delta variant of COVID-19 impacted sales.Associated Press reported that shares rose 3% on Friday, however, after the cruise line operator said bookings for the second half of next year are running ahead of 2019 levels.The average ship was only 59% full in August, Carnival told AP. That was an improvement from 39% in June. The cruise industry has been one of the hardest-hit sectors following the huge disruption caused by the pandemic. Former and current cruise employees recently told Insider how they had to reckon with loneliness, fear, and uncertainty while being stuck in mandatory quarantines. AP reported that the big three cruise companies in the US did not receive the same kind of federal relief that was allotted to airlines. But the future for Carnival looks more assured, thanks to pent-up demand for cruises. In July, it said advance bookings for 2022 were already higher than in 2019, Insider's Grace Dean reported. "We reported a significant loss, so we haven't recovered yet, obviously, but as we look ahead we see brighter days," Carnival CEO Arnold Donald told AP. "If things continue to trend the way they are (with COVID-19 cases), we should see positive cash flow as we get our fleet sailing broadly again."People are spending a lot of money on board, too. The company told AP that while there were fewer passengers on board this summer, they spent 20% more onboard than before the pandemic. According to Donald, the fact that people haven't been able to cruise, or travel at all, could be behind the increased spending. "So they are in a mood to spend more because they haven't had a chance to in a while," he said.Eight of Carnival's nine cruise lines have resumed sailing with reduced schedules, AP reported. The company said it anticipated its full fleet to be operating by spring 2022. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytSep 25th, 2021

Saturday links: craving silence

On Saturdays we catch up with the non-finance related items that we didn’t get to earlier in the week. You can check... AutosDriving is the most dangerous thing most Americans do every day. What can be done to reduce traffic fatalities? (vox.com)A sustainable car needs to be designed from the ground up. (nytimes.com)Is the Arcimoto FUV the future of mobility? (axios.com)What is a 'diminished value claim'? (humbledollar.com)EnergyWhy New Orleans lost power for so long post-Hurricane Ida. (nytimes.com)China’s president Xi Jinping has pledged to end the financing of new coal power plants overseas. (ft.com)Fire'Fire weather,' i.e. hot, dry and windy, is on the rise in the West. (arstechnica.com)Americans keep moving into fire-prone areas. (bloomberg.com)Goats are particularly effective at eliminating wildfire risks. (nytimes.com)ClimateClimate risk is coming for banks. (ritholtz.com)In the Northern hemisphere Summer is getting longer. (washingtonpost.com)It's going to get more expensive to insure coastal real estate. (nytimes.com)EnvironmentWe can pull carbon from the atmosphere, the question is one of scaling. (reasonstobecheerful.world)The biggest toilet paper brands are made from pulp from virgin forests. (axios.com)Why the Mississippi River Delta is sinking. (theconversation.com)How a new microdrip irrigation system could change farming. (bloomberg.com)Covid has not been great for trash generation. (nytimes.com)AnimalsWhy does Colossal want to re-introduce woolly mammoths into the Arctic? (businessofbusiness.com)Commercial fishing is a global Ponzi scheme. (scientificamerican.com)SpaceSolar flares are an ongoing risk for humanity. (knowablemagazine.org)The soon-to-be launched James Webb Space Telescope will be 100 times as powerful as the Hubble. (vox.com)ArchaeologyWhy scientists believe that a large airburst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, a Middle Bronze Age city. (nature.com)The date that humans populated the Americas keeps getting pushed back. (wsj.com)Researchers may have found the oldest case of archaic human art. (scientificamerican.com)Air travelThe FAA is struggling to keep up with all the new stuff in the sky. (axios.com)The U.S. is set to lift the travel ban for vaccinated flyers from the EU and UK. (yahoo.com)Where the major U.S. airlines stand on vaccine mandates for employees. (washingtonpost.com)What's next for airport screening? (axios.com)TravelNational parks are looking for ways to keep crowds in check. (wsj.com)Barcelona is kicking Airbnb ($ABNB), and other short term rentals, out. (nytimes.com)TechnologyThe case for having a laptop separate from work. (theverge.com)New security features in Apple ($AAPL) iOS 15. (wired.com)BehaviorWhat constitutes a psychologically rich life? (psychologytoday.com)Why we all feel so tired all the time. (time.com)Health careHow the pandemic is causing nurses to reassess their career choice. (indystar.com)Nursing home staff shortages are at crisis levels. (axios.com)HealthOn the prospects for a vaccine for poison ivy. (scientificamerican.com)Baby poop is loaded with microplastics. (wired.com)Why have the Dutch people stopped growing taller? (washingtonpost.com)FitnessPeloton ($PTON) is pushing to get its machines in public spaces like hotels and gyms. (frontofficesports.com)Why your workout burns fewer calories than you think. (nytimes.com)DogsTherapy dogs are available at some airports for travelers and workers. (washingtonpost.com)Therapy dogs are also a thing on college campuses. (theconversation.com)A startup, Loyal, wants to improve the healthspan and lifespan in dogs. (techcrunch.com)What's the purpose of a dog's dewclaw? (mentalfloss.com)WeedAmazon ($AMZN) is a force for marijuana legalization. (protocol.com)The legal marijuana business is on a hiring spree. (washingtonpost.com)College students are using marijuana more and drinking less. (washingtonpost.com)FoodSome restaurateurs are using the pandemic as an opportunity to restructure how they do business, including wages. (nytimes.com)Scaling up cultured meat production is going to difficult and expensive. (thecounter.org)MBAApplications to elite MBA programs have leveled off. (wsj.com)The MBA gender pay gap is slowly closing. (ft.com)Earlier on Abnormal ReturnsCoronavirus links: flu season. (abnormalreturns.com)What you missed in our Friday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)Podcast links: the future of finance. (abnormalreturns.com)Are you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter. (newsletter.abnormalreturns.com)Mixed mediaLuxury brands are offering customers expert, in-house repair services. (robbreport.com)Why songwriters get such a small cut of music revenues. (variety.com)Home dining rooms have been repurposed in pandemic. (washingtonpost.com).....»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturnsSep 25th, 2021