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First Mover Asia: Bitcoin Seesaws Above and Below $23K Again

The largest cryptocurrency has been holding steady near this threshold as investors remain hopeful about inflation and the economy......»»

Category: forexSource: coindeskJan 24th, 2023

An Alt-Take On FTX - What If It Was Built For This?

An Alt-Take On FTX - What If It Was Built For This? Authored by Dexter k. White via Gold, Goats, 'n Guns blog, (Usage herein unless otherwise noted:  bitcoin = bitcoin; crypto = everything else) A lot of people think crypto is worth something. A lot of people think bitcoin is worth something. Most people in each community think fiat currency has major problems. And they all believe in the cross fungibility of cryptocurrency and fiat. Which is why they are missing a huge point about FTX. The broad crypto community can’t even imagine the perspective of someone who thinks all of crypto (and BTC) is a bunch of bullshit. And it is from that perspective where our story is told.  First, a little background. Dramatis Personae For lots of reasons, the concept of cryptocurrency always pissed off the old white collar on a blue striped shirt finance guys.  Those guys cut their teeth in the go-go 80s and dot-com 90s and now zoomer & millennial crypto “traders” want to tell them how markets work. The old guys know what a mania looks like.  They know what people investing in bullshit looks like.  They traded pets.com, for God’s sake. So when the rapscallions of crypto refused to come get their entry analyst jobs and instead wanted to build an alternative financial system, the old guard took notice. The wrong people started getting rich.  And even if most of their “wealth” was still locked in the land of magic beans (crypto tokens), they were still pulling out enough dollars to make a splash. “They are buying all the Lambos, Mortimer!  This shit is getting out of hand.  Time to kill the baby.” Market Caps and Traps Market capitalization isn’t real.  It’s a notional value representing the maximum value of all the existing units of an instrument if you could sell them at the current bid.  But you never can.  When the entirety of an issue goes up for sale, there is, for a single moment, not a single buyer.  And then the price drops by a lot. This is all glaringly obvious but still bears repeating.  Because we live in a world where we’re constantly told market caps equal net worth.  A world where idiots like Elizabeth Warren want to tax “big wampum number” every time someone multiplies a share count times a price.   In the 1990s people thought Bill Gates was worth $35B.  But he couldn’t sell $35B of MSFT back then even if he wanted too.  Gates is rich, Elon is rich, Bezos is rich, but not as rich as dumb reporters say they are. They can only fully convert their wealth into dollars when they retire, when they are allowed to sell all their converted founder’s shares without restriction. The View from Above The old guys look at crypto as a closed system.  Just a black box with a bunch of token ledgers that people are buying with dollars.  And those dollars are ultimately debited and credited between accounts in the traditional finance world.   If all the tokens inside the black box disappeared, the same amount of dollars would exist in the real world.  No net wealth has been created. In accounting terms, you can’t actually do a debit to cash and a credit to crypto. No matter how many passionate speeches are given about DeFi, the systems are independent.  Dollars are dollars and crypto is crypto.   All of the value inside the crypto system is imaginary and all the money that has been traded in crypto markets are just dollar credits and debits inside the old guys’ financial system. There is no inherent value in crypto, only the net value on exit. You don’t have to agree with this take, just acknowledge that some might see it this way. And if you control the dollar/fiat system, you face a choice whether to allow a blending of the two systems or to keep crypto in a box and kill it by blocking the exits. Most importantly, if you can set up a toll booth and milk the muppets of their real world dollars, you do it.  The old guys know how this game is played.  It doesn’t matter if the muppets are buying FTT or shares of eToys.com. And so, decisions were made. Liquidity Inside & Out You don’t get liquidity for nothing in crypto.  You can’t just print a billion tokens, sell one for a dollar and call yourself a billionaire.  That only works for Theranos.  You need a backer.   This has usually meant working with some huge sketchy bitcoin whales to liquify the trade in your token and create the illusion of demand. Especially in the first rally of 2017, liquidity in crypto was mostly endogenous.  That is to say it came from bitcoin (BTC).  The exogenous (dollar) liquidity came later.  And it is that dollar liquidity that drove a lot of the second boom of 2020-21. But the relationship between endogenous (mostly BTC) and exogenous (your 19 year old nephew buying DOGE) is incredibly weighted towards the “value” already inside the system. It’s a large pile of useless tokens leveraged by people with unlimited borrow.  And whatever new money is coming in to bid them up even more. Crypto people think real wealth creation has happened. Trad finance guys think the crypto people bid up a bunch of magic beans inside a closed system and when they run for the exits, finance needs to slam the door in their face. There is no spoon.  When a market goes bidless, there is no market. And at a time when dollar liquidity is being drained worldwide, if you think crypto is going to moon, you may be a tad disappointed. Ponzi Lifecycles All Ponzi schemes die of the same cause:  a liquidity shortage. But they bilk a lot of people and collect a lot of cash before that happens.  And the people who run Ponzis are not looking to share the top of the pyramid. But what if you could offer to increase the vig and extend the lifecycle of a Ponzi scheme?  What if you systematized that? Inside crypto, there has been no shortage of projects in urgent need of liquidity.  Crypto liquidity needs can be satisfied by worthless tokens leveraged to infinity. In the real world, the powers that be have decided the contagion effect from crypto is too much to bear. All the exogenous liquidity is preserved in the real financial world.  It’s a zero sum game.  The crypto table can be knocked over with very little long term risk to the traditional system, as long as that happens before any real fusion occurs. SBF could even be a patsy, while still possibly being a criminal fraudster in this story.  A patsy who believed in crypto being controlled by those who believe in fiat. After considering all of the above, imagine those powerful and connected handlers and how they would achieve their goals. How would that look? The Alt-take on FTX There have been countless post-mortems published on FTX.  A lot of them are very, very good. All come from the perspective that crypto has inherent value and fungibility.  Which leads to a common thesis that FTX found itself spiraling out of control and then did a lot of trades and acquisitions to postpone the inevitable, leading to a cataclysm.  This view also prevents another way of looking at the situation. What if FTX did not find itself in this situation by unfortunate circumstance?   What if it was built for this? What if FTX was created to eat Ponzi schemes in the wild and deplete them of any actual cash they had?  Because the whole project was actually architected by those who don’t really believe in crypto? It just had to survive long enough to eat all of the major Ponzis in the space.  Extracting all the cash and paving the way for regulatory pushback. It would go something like this: Create a crypto exchange  Become a market maker and mover Pretend to be US compliant by having a placeholder US presence (FTX.us) Maybe make a stablecoin (was in progress) Definitely make a market traded token (FTT) Liquify the token with dollars (USDT) Target Ponzicoin projects with proven real world cash reserves Advance them liquidity via FTT Securitize the loans with their cash Extend their runways, allowing them to keep aggregating cash Wait for their collapse Take their cash, book a loss Repeat Do this until you have wiped out all the major players and have set the stage for a changing of the guard. This money eating machine was always destined to fail.  But so was the market it played in.  Perhaps the creators of FTX decided to roll up all the Ponzis in a giant mega-Ponzi and extract all the cash for as long as possible. It might have lasted longer but for the recent bitcoin price drop which injected a black swan into the timeline and likely blew out a lot of positions FTX was counting on to remain solvent. Where the money was intended to go is open to speculation. How this started is a more interesting question.  How much dollar liquidity flowed into FTX via USDT to create credibility for the FTT token is a much more interesting question. This alternate angle is where we invite others to gaze from and see if it helps elucidate the situation any further as more and more information continues to come out. For more detail, join Tom and I as we discuss this on the podcast: *  *  * Join my Patreon if you like eating Ponzis Tyler Durden Thu, 11/17/2022 - 12:51.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytNov 17th, 2022

"FTX Isn"t The Canary In The Coal-Mine, FTX Is The Coal-Mine... & It Just Collapsed"

"FTX Isn't The Canary In The Coal-Mine, FTX Is The Coal-Mine... & It Just Collapsed" Via SchiffGold.com, Bitcoin Hodlers: Time is Running Out to Convert Nothing into Something Three key takeaways: For weeks, the Bitcoin market has looked propped up by the whales, especially after the recent FTX disaster. Bitcoin hodlers should strongly consider moving into gold, silver, or at least Ether. Full disclosure, I have a complicated relationship with Crypto. An Artificial Market I have specifically avoided writing about Bitcoin despite having strong opinions on the subject. Bitcoin is a very hot topic, and most people have already made up their minds. In short, I think it has zero value but that argument has been made many times before so I couldn’t add anything new to the conversation. Full disclosure, I have been in the Crypto market since 2013 and am net positive. That said, given recent market events, I cannot sit by in good conscience without giving fair warning. This is not a Bitcoin is worthless analysis, this is a wake-up call to push people to ask what is keeping this market from imploding. FTX isn’t the canary in the coal mine (that was Celsius, or one of the other firms that crashed this year). FTX is the coal mine, and it just collapsed. I think the data shows that this market is being propped up by whales. If the dam breaks it could send markets crashing. Back on Oct 31, before anything happened with FTX, I texted a close friend: My new theory is that the whales are not trying to pump the price anymore. Instead, they are trying to stabilize the price to win back institutional investors. I have never seen bitcoin price volatility so low over a 6 month stretch in 10 years. It just totally stopped moving after an epic collapse back in June. No bounce, no continuation, no nothing. Just super tight price range even while the stock market has continued falling. I was led to this thinking after watching Bitcoin crash in June to ~19k and then just hold. It spent the next few months consolidating while the bond and stock markets went into turmoil. See the chart below with the simple price of SPY overlaid on top of Bitcoin since 2021. You may notice how steady the orange line has been since June 21, directly after the Bitcoin crash below $20k. Figure: 1 SPY vs BTC Let’s compare the 30-day rolling annualized standard deviation between Bitcoin and the SPY. This chart shows the difference in volatility between Bitcoin and SPY. Notice how it has been collapsing in recent months, and Bitcoin was actually less volatile than the S&P for a brief period in October. Since when is Bitcoin less volatile than the S&P 500? That has quickly reversed since the FTX fiasco. Figure: 2 Volatility/Standard Deviation However, while price volatility is falling, trade volume is not. The next chart is the 30-day rolling average trade volume of Bitcoin compared to the price. Once again you can notice a misalignment. As volume was steadily increasing over the last several months, the price stayed in a tight range. Figure: 3 Price and Volume Usually, large changes in volume are accompanied by large moves in price. But in this case, volume was moving up steadily while the price stayed nearly flat. How and why was this happening? As I alluded to above in my text to a friend, this looked like an artificial market. The market nearly collapsed back in June and then just flatlined near 20k. That doesn’t happen, especially in Bitcoin. After this past week though, I am now convinced this market is being artificially propped up. After all, 27% of the market is dominated by a super minority of less than 0.01%. They have a major vested interest in keeping this market inflated. I think the increased volume against stable price action is from whales defending the price and painting the tape. I won’t rehash what happened with FTX this week (there are 1,000s of articles explaining the epic collapse). Instead, I will just highlight that this is a MAJOR event in the Crypto space. To Crypto, this would be like 3 Enron happenings all at once, or Enron and Madoff happening in the same weekend. This is catastrophic on every level, but the price of Bitcoin only fell by about 20%. What?!? In the stock market over the past several weeks, companies have been reporting disappointing earnings at a frequent clip. Each company has been absolutely punished for it. Some have fallen 20% or more in a single day which is extremely rare. These are bad earnings for major corporations that still have revenue. Yet Bitcoin has its Enron + Madoff moment and the price of Bitcoin drops by the same ~20%? No way! I am not buying it! Step back and think about this for just a moment. Take another look at the charts above that show how the price volatility collapsed despite steadily increasing trade volume. Most importantly, look at the recent massive spike in trade volume from FTX and the relatively minor price drop. For any mathematicians who might be claiming scale and relative impact are not properly reflected, take a look at the same chart on log scale below. Figure: 4 Price and Volume on Log Scale Okay, this looks a little bit more reasonable… until you remember that this was Enron + Madoff! No. I am sorry, but no. The price should be down 50-70% after this event. I am convinced it will be. Think about how much Crypto money just went up in smoke. Think about the confidence lost. Everyone keeps saying that Crypto winters come and go, and so will this one. But will the summer ever be as bright for Bitcoin? Each winter has been followed by a bigger hype train than the last one. How can the next hype train be bigger than the last one? You had EVERYTHING going for it last year. The price was screaming higher, hype was at a fever pitch, Superbowl ads, celebrity endorsements. Everything! When this Crypto winter breaks, Bitcoin won’t recover to new all-time highs without being artificially pumped up. Who is entering the market on the next rebound that wasn’t already in the market? Institutional investors have abandoned ship and the whales are left trying to stem the tide. Want more proof that institutional investors have left? Take a look at the GBTC Premium/Discount chart. Figure: 5 GBTC Premium and Discount This is easy money for institutions. If you want Bitcoin exposure, you can get exposure at a 42% discount. Why is this arbitrage not closing? Let’s make this a little fancier and adjust the price of Bitcoin by the premium/discount of GBTC. Figure: 6 GBTC Implied Price Notice something? Right now, GBTC is implying that the fair market price of Bitcoin is under $10k. So, who is right here? I am betting on the smart money that is unwilling to buy GBTC at a whopping 47% discount. I get it. Bitcoin is like a religion for some people. HODL, laser eyes, Michael Saylor, blah blah. But sometimes something is just so obvious you have to get your head out of the sand. If you want true independence from the banking system and you want to reduce counterparty risk, then buy physical gold and silver. Unlike GBTC, the smart money is pillaging the Comex vaults right now while institutional investors are also paying a hefty premium for silver. Let me guess, you still want Crypto exposure to maybe get the moonshot event. Triple up or more. Okay fine, at least buy something of value like Ether. It at least has some value. Probably not $1,200, but definitely greater than $0. It also has potential and versatility. If it’s me, I still think about value. I wouldn’t pay $500 for a gallon of gas and I wouldn’t pay $10,000 for an ounce of gold (unless hyperinflation hits). So, at $1,200 Ether is probably overpriced. But again, at least it has value. I personally bought in the $150 range and sold too early at around $700. Ether is far from perfect or a value investment, but it’s a better option than Bitcoin. Still, anyone who wants to exit the banking system and get value… look at physical precious metals! My complicated history with Crypto Full disclosure. I have a complex relationship with Crypto. I have made more money in Crypto than gold and silver for sure. I have been bullish and bearish at different times in my life. As a Libertarian, I heard about Bitcoin back in 2012 and told myself to spend $2,000 and buy 1,000 BTC, toss half into cold storage, and then trade the other half. Whoops. I forgot to do this because it looked complicated. Then Cyprus happened and Bitcoin shot up to $50. I didn’t want to miss the next move, so I started buying. Had a decent stack at one point. Rode it up to $1,100 and then MtGox crashed and poof went my Bitcoins. I eventually sold the bankruptcy claim to an opportunistic buyer. I decided I needed to understand the tech to see if I should buy back in. I read everything. The Bitcoin white paper, articles, wiki pages about hashing, and how blocks are linked together. How computers compete to solve for the nonce with the correct amount of preceding 0s (this is how the algo gets harder). I looked at transactions on the actual Bitcoin blockchain to try and understand it. It started to make sense to me, so when prices came down, I would buy and then sell the rebound. Doesn’t mean I was all-in though. Back in 2020, I wrote: I think Blockchain is a vastly overhyped technology. Blockchain removes the need for trust and eliminates counterparty risk, but the cost is enormous. Blockchain is really just a super expensive low-performance database. Not to mention, that there is nothing truly unique in the [Bitcoin] blockchain code, Bitcoin simply has first mover advantage. I still stand by this. Blockchain is a database, just really expensive. What makes Bitcoin any different than Litecoin or Bitcoin Cash? Maybe different hashing algos or transaction speeds. But structurally, very little. I bet if you ask most Crypto fanatics, they actually understand very little about the underlying tech. There is nothing about Bitcoin that makes it special except that it came first. When you factor in the cost to mine, Bitcoin actually has a negative value. Ethereum is different. It wants to be Web 3.0 and wants to be the world computer. Maybe it will get there, maybe it won’t. But it has a lot better chance of being worth more than $0 in 10 years. Do you know what will definitely be worth more than $0 in 10 years, 100 years, and 1,000 years? Physical gold and silver. Not a futures contract or an ETF necessarily, but physical metal you can hold in your hand. If you are still in Bitcoin, then you are betting and hoping for the whales to continue propping up this market. But there is an avalanche of selling coming. As I said, FTX isn’t the canary in the coal mine (that was Celsius, or one of the other firms that crashed this year). FTX is the coal mine, and it just collapsed. Somehow you can still trade BTC for almost $17,000. That’s an extraordinary amount given what just happened. If you are still hodling, I encourage you to reconsider. Buy something of actual value with that money like physical gold and silver. There is no counterparty risk, no concern over trust, and no risk of a hacker or losing your keys. It is the best form of insurance against the turmoil that lies ahead. If you really want Crypto exposure, at least consider Ether. Even if it is overpriced, it is worth something greater than $0. Bitcoin is worth whatever the whales can force it to be worth, but one day soon, they might lose the capital needed to manipulate the price higher or even just keep it from crashing. As we learned with FTX, things look fine up until the very moment they are not. And then billions can be lost in a very short time. How much do you trust the Bitcoin whales to keep this market afloat? Tyler Durden Sun, 11/13/2022 - 23:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 14th, 2022

Ether y bitcoin se debilitan mientras empresas de trading culpan a la falta de catalizadores alcistas por el desplome del mercado

Los depósitos de ETH en los exchanges todavía deben retroceder, según un observador. Inversores comenzaron a mover las criptomonedas a los exchanges antes de la fusión de Ethereum del jueves......»»

Category: forexSource: coindeskSep 19th, 2022

Futures, Commodities Jump After China Cuts Quarantine

Futures, Commodities Jump After China Cuts Quarantine US stock futures rebounded from Monday's modest losses and traded near session highs after China reduced quarantine times for inbound travelers by half - to seven days of centralized quarantine and three days of health monitoring at home -  the biggest shift yet in a Covid-19 policy that has left the world’s second-largest economy isolated as it continues to try and eliminate the virus. The move, which fueled optimism about stronger economic growth and boosted appetite for both commodities and risk assets, sent S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 contracts higher by 0.6% each at 7:15 a.m. in New York, setting up heavyweight technology stocks for a rebound. Mining and energy shares led gains in Europe’s Stoxx 600 and an Asian equity index erased losses to climb for a fourth session. 10Y TSY yields extended their move higher rising to 3.25% or about +5bps on the session, while the dollar and bitcoin were flat, and oil and commodity-linked currencies strengthened. In premarket trading, the biggest mover was Kezar Life Sciences which soared 85% after reporting positive results for its lupus drug. On the other end, Robinhood shares fell 3.2%, paring a rally yesterday sparked by news that FTX is exploring whether to buy the company. In a statement, FTX head Sam Bankman-Fried said he is excited about the firm’s business prospects, but “there are no active M&A conversations with Robinhood." Here are some of the other most notable premarket movers" Playtika (PLTK US) shares rallied 11% in premarket trading after a report that private equity firm Joffre Capital agreed to acquire a majority stake in the gaming company from a Chinese investment group for $21 a share. Nike (NKE US) shares fell 2.3% in US premarket trading, with analysts reducing their price targets after the company gave a downbeat forecast for gross margin and said it was being cautious in its outlook for the China market. Spirit Airlines (SAVE US) shares rise as much as 5% in US premarket trading after JetBlue boosted its all-cash bid in response to an increased offer by rival suitor Frontier in the days before a crucial shareholder vote. Snowflake (SNOW US) rises 3.3% in US premarket trading after Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold, saying its valuation is now “back to reality” and offers a good entry point given the software firm’s long-term targets. Sutro Biopharma (STRO US) shares rise 34% in US premarket trading after the company and Astellas said they will collaborate to advance development of immunostimulatory antibody-drug conjugates, which are a modality for treating tumors and designed to boost anti-cancer activity. State Street (STT US) shares could be in focus after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to hold, while lowering EPS estimates and price targets across interest rate sensitive coverage of trust banks and online brokers. US bank stocks may be volatile during Tuesday’s trading session after the lenders announced a wave of dividend increases following last week’s successful stress test results. Stock rallies have proved fleeting this year as higher borrowing costs to fight inflation restrain economic activity in a range of nations. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde affirmed plans for an initial quarter-point increase in interest rates in July, but said policy makers are ready to step up action to tackle record inflation if warranted. Some analysts also argue still-bullish earnings estimates are too optimistic. Earnings revisions are a risk with the US economy set to slow next year, though China emerging from Covid strictures could act as a global buffer, according to Lorraine Tan, Morningstar director of equity research. “You got a US slowdown in 2023 in terms of growth, but you have China hopefully coming out of its lockdowns,” Tan said on Bloomberg Radio. In Europe, stocks are well bid with most European indexes up over 1%. Euro Stoxx 50 rose as much as 1.2% before drifting off the highs. Miners, energy and auto names outperform. The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources sub-index rises as much as 3.5% led by heavyweights Rio Tinto and Anglo American, as well as Polish copper producer KGHM and Finnish forestry companies Stora Enso and UPM- Kymmene. Iron ore and copper reversed losses after China eased its quarantine rules for new arrivals, while oil gained for a third session amid risks of supply disruptions. Iron ore in Singapore rose more than 4% after being firmly lower earlier in the session, while copper and other base metals also turned higher. Here are the biggest European movers: Luxury stocks climb boosted by an easing of Covid-19 quarantine rules in the key market of China. LVMH shares rise as much as 2.5%, Richemont +3.1%, Kering +3%, Moncler +3% Energy and mining stocks are the best-performing groups in the rising Stoxx Europe 600 index amid commodity gains. Shell shares rise as much as 3.8%, TotalEnergies +2.7%, BP +3.4%, Rio Tinto +4.6%, Glencore +3.9% Banco Santander shares rise as much as 1.8% after a report that the Spanish bank has hired Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs for its bid to buy Mexico’s Banamex. GN Store Nord shares gain as much as 4.2% after Nordea resumes coverage on the hearing devices company with a buy rating. Swedish Match shares rise as much as 4% as Philip Morris International’s offer document regarding its bid for the company has been approved and registered by the Swedish FSA. Wise shares decline as much as 15%, erasing earlier gains after the fintech firm reported full- year earnings. Citi said the results were “mixed,” with strong revenue growth being offset by lower profitability. UK water stocks decline as JPMorgan says it is turning cautious on the sector on the view that future regulated returns could surprise to the downside, in a note cutting Severn Trent to underweight. Severn Trent shares fall as much as 6%, Pennon -7.7%, United Utilities -2.3% Akzo Nobel falls as much as 4.5% in Amsterdam trading after the paint maker announced the appointment of former Sulzer leader Greg Poux-Guillaumeas chief executive officer, succeeding Thierry Vanlancker. Danske Bank shares fall as much as 4%, as JPMorgan cut its rating on the stock to underweight, saying in a note that risks related to Swedish property will likely create some “speed bumps” for Nordic banks though should be manageable. In the Bavarian Alps, limiting Russia’s profits from rising energy prices that fuel its war in Ukraine have been among the main topics of discussion at a Group of Seven summit. G-7 leaders agreed that they want ministers to urgently discuss and evaluate how the prices of Russian oil and gas can be curbed. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks erased earlier losses as China’s move to ease quarantine rules for inbound travelers bolstered sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6% after falling by a similar magnitude. The benchmark is set for a fourth day of gains, led by the energy and utilities sectors. BHP and Toyota contributed the most to the gauge’s advance, while China’s technology firms were among the biggest losers as a plan by Tencent’s major backer to further cut its stake fueled concern of more profit-taking following a strong rally.   A move by Beijing to cut quarantine times for inbound travelers by half is helping cement gains which have made Chinese shares the world’s best-performing major equity market this month. The nation’s stocks are approaching a bull market even as their recent rise pushes them to overbought levels. Still, the threat of a sharp slowdown in the world’s largest economy may pose a threat to the outlook. “US recession risk is still there and I think that’ll obviously have impact on global sectors,” Lorraine Tan, director of equity research at Morningstar, said on Bloomberg TV. “Even if we do get some China recovery in 2023, which could be a buffer for this region, it’s not going to offset the US or global recession.”  Most stock benchmarks in the region finished higher following China’s move to ease its travel rules. Main equity measures in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia rose while those in Taiwan and India fell. Overall, Asian stocks are on course to complete a monthly decline of about 4%.    Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China pledged to keep monetary policy supportive to help the nation’s economy. It signaled that stimulus would likely focus on boosting credit rather than lowering interest rates. Japanese stocks gained as investors adjusted positions heading into the end of the quarter.  The Topix Index rose 1.1% to 1,907.38 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.7% to 27,049.47. Toyota Motor contributed most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.2%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,736 rose and 374 fell, while 60 were unchanged. “As the end of the April-June quarter approaches, there is a tendency for institutional investors to rebalance,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley. “It will be easier to buy into cheap stocks, which is a factor that will support the market in terms of supply and demand.” India’s benchmark stock gauge ended flat after trading lower for most of the session as investors booked some profits after a three-day rally.  The S&P BSE Sensex closed little changed at 53,177.45 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index gained 0.1%.  Six of the the 19 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. dropped, led by consumer durables companies, while oil & gas firms were top performers.  ICICI Bank was among the prominent decliners on the Sensex, falling 1%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 17 rose and 13 fell. In rates, fixed income sold off as treasuries remained under pressure with the 10Y yield rising as high as 3.26%, following steeper declines for euro-zone and UK bond markets for second straight day and after two ugly US auctions on Monday. Yields across the curve are higher by 2bp-5bp led by the 7-year ahead of the $40 billion auction. In Europe, several 10-year yields are 10bp higher on the day after comments by an ECB official spurred money markets to price in more policy tightening. WI 7Y yield at around 3.32% exceeds 7-year auction stops since March 2010 and compares with 2.777% last month. Monday’s 5-year auction drew a yield more than 3bp higher than its yield in pre-auction trading just before the bidding deadline, a sign dealers underestimated demand. Traders attributed the poor results to factors including short base eroded by last week’s rally, recently elevated market volatility discouraging market-making, and sub-par participation during what is a popular vacation week in the US. Focal points for US session include 7-year note auction at 1pm ET; a 5-year auction Monday produced notably weak demand metrics. The belly of the German curve underperformed as markets focus  on hawkish comments from ECB officials: 5y bobl yields rose 10 bps near 1.46%, red pack euribors dropped 10-13 ticks and ECB-dated OIS rates priced in 163 basis points of tightening by year end. In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index is near flat as the greenback reversed earlier losses versus all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen while commodity currencies were the best performers. The euro rose above $1.06 before paring gains after ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said the central bank should consider a first rate hike of more than a quarter-point if there are signs that high inflation readings are feeding expectations. Money markets ECB raised tightening wagers after his remarks. ECB President Lagarde later affirmed plans for an initial quarter-point increase in interest rates in July but said policy makers are ready to step up action to tackle record inflation if warranted. The ECB is likely to drain cash from the banking system to offset any bond purchases made to restrain borrowing costs for indebted euro-area members, Reuters reported, citing two sources it didn’t identify. Elsewhere, the pound drifted against the dollar and euro after underperforming Monday, with focus on quarter-end flows, lingering Brexit risks and the UK economic outlook. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon due to speak later on how she plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence by the end of next year. The yen gave up an Asia session gain versus the dollar as US equity futures reversed losses. The Australian dollar rose after China cut its mandatory quarantine period to 10 days from three weeks for inbound visitors in its latest Covid-19 guidance. JPY was the weakest in G-10, drifting below 136 to the USD. In commodities, oil rose for a third day with global output threats compounding already red-hot markets for physical supplies and as broader financial sentiment improved. Brent crude breached $117 a barrel on Tuesday, but some of the most notable moves in recent days have been in more specialist market gauges. A contract known as the Dated-to-Frontline swap -- an indicator of the strength in the key North Sea market underpinning much of the world’s crude pricing -- hit a record of more than $5 a barrel. The rally comes amid growing supply outages in Libya and Ecuador, exacerbating ongoing market tightness. Oil prices also rose Tuesday as broader sentiment was boosted by China’s move to cut in half the time new arrivals must spend in isolation, the biggest shift yet in its pandemic policy. Meanwhile, the G-7 tasked ministers to urgently discuss an oil price cap on Russia.  Finally, the prospect of additional supply from two of OPEC’s key producers also looks limited. On Monday Reuters reported that French President Emmanuel Macron told his US counterpart Joe Biden that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are already pumping almost as much as they can. In the battered metals space, LME nickel rose 2.7%, outperforming peers and leading broad-based gains in the base-metals complex. Spot gold rises roughly $3 to trade near $1,826/oz Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include the FHFA house price index for April, the advance goods trade balance and preliminary wholesale inventories for May, as well as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for June and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Lane, Elderson and Panetta, the Fed’s Daly, and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe. Finally, NATO leaders will be meeting in Madrid. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 3,922.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 417.65 MXAP up 0.4% to 162.36 MXAPJ up 0.4% to 539.85 Nikkei up 0.7% to 27,049.47 Topix up 1.1% to 1,907.38 Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 22,418.97 Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,409.21 Sensex down 0.3% to 52,990.39 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 6,763.64 Kospi up 0.8% to 2,422.09 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.62% Euro little changed at $1.0587 Brent Futures up 1.4% to $116.65/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,828.78 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.89 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg In Tokyo’s financial circles, the trade is known as the widow- maker. The bet is simple: that the Bank of Japan, under growing pressure to stabilize the yen as it sinks to a 24-year low, will have to abandon its 0.25% cap on benchmark bond yields and let them soar, just as they already have in the US, Canada, Europe and across much of the developing world Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco may leave his post in October, paving the way for the appointment of a high profile executive close to Premier Mario Draghi, daily Il Foglio reported NATO is set to label China a “systemic challenge” when it outlines its new policy guidelines this week, while also highlighting Beijing’s deepening partnership with Russia, according to people familiar with the matter The PBOC pledged to keep monetary policy supportive to aid the economy’s recovery, while signaling that stimulus would likely focus on boosting credit rather than lowering interest rates A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mixed with the region partially shrugging off the lacklustre handover from the US. ASX 200 was kept afloat with energy leading the gains amongst the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with upside capped by resistance above the 27K level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured amid weakness in tech and lingering default concerns as Sunac plans discussions on extending a CNY bond and with Evergrande facing a wind-up petition. Top Asian News China is to cut quarantine time for international travellers, according to state media cited by Reuters. Shanghai Disneyland (DIS) will reopen on June 30th, according to Reuters. PBoC injected CNY 110bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 100bln net daily injection. China's state planner official said China faces new challenges in stabilising jobs and prices due to COVID and risks from the Ukraine crisis, while the NDRC added they will not resort to flood-like stimulus but will roll out tools in its policy reserve in a timely way to cope with challenges, according to Reuters. China's state planner NDRC says China is to cut gasoline and diesel retail prices by CNY 320/tonne and CNY 310/tonne respectively from June 29th. BoJ may have been saddled with as much as JPY 600bln in unrealised losses on its JGB holdings earlier this month, as a widening gap between domestic and overseas monetary policy pushed yields higher and prices lower, according to Nikkei. European bourses are firmer as sentiment picked up heading into the cash open amid encouraging Chinese COVID headlines. Sectors are mostly in the green with no clear theme. Base metals and Energy reside as the current winners and commodities feel a boost from China’s COVID updates. Stateside, US equity futures saw a leg higher in tandem with global counterparts, with the RTY narrowly outperforming. Twitter (TWTR) in recent weeks provided Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk with historical tweet data and access to its so-called fire hose of tweets, according to WSJ sources. Top European News UK lawmakers voted 295-221 to support the Northern Ireland Protocol bill in the first of many parliamentary tests it will face during the months ahead, according to Reuters. Scotland's First Minister Sturgeon will set out a plan today for holding a second Scottish Independence Referendum, according to BBC News. ECB’s Kazaks Says Worth Looking at Larger Rate Hike in July G-7 Latest: Leaders Want Urgent Evaluation of Energy Price Caps Ex- UBS Staffer Wants Payout for Exposing $10 Billion Swiss Stash SocGen Blames Clifford Chance in $483 Million Gold Suit GSK’s £40 Billion Consumer Arm Picks Citi, UBS as Brokers Russian Industry Faces Code Crisis as Critical Software Pulled ECB ECB's Lagarde said inflation in the euro area is undesirably high and it is projected to stay that way for some time to comeFragmentation tool, via the ECB. ECB's Kazaks said 25bps in July and 50bps in September is the base case, via Bloomberg TV. Kazaks said it is worth looking at a 50bps hike in July and front-loading hikes might be reasonable. Fragmentation risks should not stand in the way of monetary policy normalisation. If necessary, the ECB will come up with tools to address fragmentation. ECB's Wunsch said he is comfortable with a 50bps hike in September; adds that 200bps of hikes are needed relatively fast, and anti-fragmentation tool should have no limits if market moves are unwarranted, via Reuters. Bank of Italy said Governor Visco's resignation is not on the table, according to a spokesperson cited by Reuters. Fixed Income Bond reversal continues amidst buoyant risk sentiment, hawkish ECB commentary and supply. Bunds lose two more big figures between 146.80 peak and 144.85 trough, Gilts down to 112.06 from 112.86 at best and 10 year T-note retreats within 117-01/116-14 range FX DXY regroups on spot month end as yields rally and rebalancing factors offer support - index within 103.750-104.020 range vs Monday's 103.660 low. Euro continues to encounter resistance above 1.0600 via 55 DMA (1.0614 today); Yen undermined by latest bond retreat and renewed risk appetite - Usd/Jpy eyes 136.00 from low 135.00 area and close to 134.50 yesterday. Aussie breaches technical and psychological resistance with encouragement from China lifting or easing more Covid restrictions - Aud/Usd through 10 DMA at 0.6954. Loonie and Norwegian Krona boosted by firm rebound in oil as France fans supply concerns due to limited Saudi and UAE production capacity - Usd/Cad sub-1.2850 and Eur/Nok under 10.3500. Yuan receives another PBoC liquidity boost to compliment positive developments on the pandemic front, but Rand hampered by latest power cut warning issued by SA’s Eskom Commodities WTI and Brent futures were bolstered in early European hours amid encouragement seen from China's loosening of COVID restrictions. Spot gold is uneventful, around USD 1,825/oz in what has been a sideways session for the bullion since the reopening overnight. Base metals are posting broad gains across the complex - with LME copper back above USD 8,500/t amid China-related optimism. US Event Calendar 08:30: May Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$105b, prior -$105.9b, revised -$106.7b 08:30: May Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 2.1%, prior 2.2% May Retail Inventories MoM, est. 1.6%, prior 0.7% 09:00: April S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 21.15%, prior 21.17% 09:00: April S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. 1.95%, prior 2.42% 09:00: April FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 1.4%, prior 1.5% 10:00: June Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 100.0, prior 106.4 Conf. Board Expectations, prior 77.5; Present Situation, prior 149.6 10:00: June Richmond Fed Index, est. -5, prior -9 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap It's been a landmark night in our household as last night was the first time the 4-year-old twins slept without night nappies. So my task this morning after I send this to the publishers is to leave for the office before they all wake up so that any accidents are not my responsibility. Its hopefully the end of a near 7-year stretch of nappies being constantly around in their many different guises and states of unpleasantness. Maybe give it another 30-40 years and they'll be back. Talking of unpleasantness, as we near the end of what’s generally been an awful H1 for markets, yesterday saw the relief rally from last week stall out, with another bond selloff and an equity performance that fluctuated between gains and losses before the S&P 500 (-0.30%) ended in negative territory. In terms of the specific moves, sovereign bonds lost ground on both sides of the Atlantic, with yields on 10yr Treasuries up by +7.0bps following their -9.6bps decline from the previous week. That advance was led by real rates (+9.6bps), which look to have been supported by some decent second-tier data releases from the US during May yesterday. The preliminary reading for US durable goods orders surprised on the upside with a +0.7% gain (vs. +0.1% expected). Core capital goods orders also surprised on the upside with a +0.8% advance (vs. +0.2% expected). And pending home sales were unexpectedly up by +0.7% (vs. -4.0% expected). Collectively that gave investors a bit more confidence that growth was still in decent shape last month, which is something that will also offer the Fed more space to continue their campaign of rate hikes into H2. This morning 10yr USTs yields have eased -2.45 bps to 3.17% while 2yr yields (-4 bps) have also moved lower to 3.08%, as we go to press. Staying at the front end, when it comes to those rate hikes, if you look at Fed funds futures they show that investors are still only expecting them to continue for another 9 months, with the peak rate in March or April 2023 before markets are pricing in at least a full 25bps rate cut by end-2023 from that point. I pointed out in my chart of the day yesterday (link here) that the median time historically from the last hike of the cycle to the first cut was only 4 months, and last time it was only 7 months between the final hike in December 2018 and the next cut in July 2019. So it wouldn’t be historically unusual if Fed funds did follow that pattern whether that fits my view or not. Over in Europe yesterday there was an even more aggressive rise in yields, with those on 10yr bunds (+10.9bps), OATs (+11.0bps) and BTPs (+9.1bps) all rising on the day as they bounced back from their even larger declines over the previous week. That came as investors pared back their bets on a more dovish ECB that they’d made following the more negative tone last week, and the rate priced in by the December ECB meeting rose by +8.5bps on the day. For equities, the major indices generally fluctuated between gains and losses through the day. The S&P 500 followed that pattern and ultimately fell -0.30%, which follows its best daily performance in over 2 years on Friday Quarter-end rebalancing flows seem set to drive markets back-and-forth price this week. Even with the decline yesterday, the index is +6.36% higher since its closing low less than a couple of weeks ago. And over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.52%) posted a decent advance, although that masked regional divergences, including losses for the CAC 40 (-0.43%) and the FTSE MIB (-0.86%). Energy stocks strongly outperformed in the index, supported by a further rise in oil prices that left both Brent crude (+1.74%) and WTI (+1.81%) higher on the day. G7 ministers reportedly agreed to explore a cap on Russian gas and oil exports, with the official mandate expected to be announced today, but it would take time for any mechanism to be developed. The impact on global oil supply is not clear: if Russia retaliates supply could go down, if this enables other third parties to import more Russian oil supply could go up. Elsewhere, political unrest in Libya and Ecuador could simultaneously hit oil supply. In early Asian trading, oil prices continue to move higher, with Brent futures up +1.13% at $116.39/bbl and WTI futures gaining +1% to just above the $110/bbl level. Asian equity markets are struggling a bit this morning. The Hang Seng (-1.00%) is the largest underperformer amid a weakening in Chinese tech stocks whilst the Nikkei (-0.15%), Shanghai Composite (-0.15%) and CSI (-0.19%) are trading in negative territory in early trade. Elsewhere, the Kospi (-0.05%) is just below the flatline. US stock futures are slipping with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.12%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.18%) both slightly lower. In central bank news, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Yi Gang pledged to provide additional monetary support to the economy to recover from Covid outbreaks and lockdowns and other stresses. In a rare interview conducted in English, the central bank chief did caution though that the real interest rate is low thereby indicating limited room for large-scale monetary easing. Turning to geopolitical developments, the G7 summit continued in Germany yesterday, and in a statement it said they would “further intensify our economic measures against Russia”. Separately, NATO announced that it will increase the number of high readiness forces to over 300,000, with the alliance’s leaders set to gather in Madrid from today. And we’re also expecting a new round of nuclear talks with Iran to take place at some point this week, something Henry mentioned in his latest Mapping Markets out yesterday (link here), which if successful could in time pave the way for Iranian oil to return to the global market. Finally, whilst there were some decent May data releases from the US, the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing activity index for June fell to a 2-year low of -17.7 (vs. -6.5 expected). To the day ahead now, and data releases include Germany’s GfK consumer confidence for July, French consumer confidence for June, whilst in the US there’s the FHFA house price index for April, the advance goods trade balance and preliminary wholesale inventories for May, as well as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for June and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Lane, Elderson and Panetta, the Fed’s Daly, and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe. Finally, NATO leaders will be meeting in Madrid. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/28/2022 - 08:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 28th, 2022

Majority Of Financial Advisors Want To Increase Bitcoin Exposure: Nasdaq Survey

Majority Of Financial Advisors Want To Increase Bitcoin Exposure: Nasdaq Survey Authored by Shawn Amick via BitcoinMagazine,com, A survey of 500 financial advisors saw 72% desiring to invest more into the bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency sector if a bitcoin spot ETF was approved. Those surveyed are already invested into bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, or are highly considering allocation to the asset class. Less than 9% of advisors are confident in their ability to expertly advise clients within the asset class, denoting an educational gap between traditional finance and an emerging monetary system. In a Nasdaq survey of 500 financial advisors whom are already allocated or consider allocation towards bitcoin and other cryptocurrency-based products, 72% would invest more heavily into the space if a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) was approved, according to a press release sent to Bitcoin Magazine detailing the results. “Over the last decade, financial advisors have been focused on shifting assets into index funds,” said Jake Rapaport, head of digital asset index research for Nasdaq, per the release. “As they incorporate digital assets into their investment strategies, they are expressing strong interest in a similar vehicle that can offer broad asset class exposure for their clients.” Financial advisors, both retail and institutional, are taking a broader interest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. While this is true, it is important to keep the correct perspective in mind as these conversations evolve. According to a January survey from Bitwise, one of the largest cryptocurrency managers in the world, financial professionals allocating to bitcoin and other products had risen to 15%, up from 9% in the previous year. These numbers lend to a responsible expectation of adoption for financial professionals as they show we still have quite a long way to go. However, continuing to look at those already allocated to the space still provides immense value. Nasdaq’s survey found that 86% of advisors who pre-allocated to bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies plan to increase allocation over the next 12 months, while none of them intend to subtract from their portfolios. Of the same sample class, 50% are already using bitcoin-based ETF futures and another 28% intend to within 12 months. As this survey only represents a small portion of financial advisors, it is still undeniable that professionals entering the space quickly discern value for their investors and latch on for the long haul. Despite the favorable terms understood by financial advisors allocating to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, there still remains much doubt to the hope a spot ETF will be approved this year. While 7% of those surveyed are unsure of spot ETF prospects being successful in 2022, 38% find it likely to succeed, 31% expect failure, and 24% of those surveyed held a neutral stance. The lack of confidence for a spot ETF approval should serve as a signal to those unallocated to bitcoin as the demand for those already investing only grows by the day, likely looking to take first-mover advantages over those slower to adoption. Of those surveyed, registered investment advisors (RIAs) represent 34% of the user base, whereas 19% are held by independent broker-dealers and another 17% by wirehouse advisors. Only 7% listed environmental, social, and governance (ESG) as an important criteria for investment strategies, 10% felt knowledgeable about bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and only 9% felt confident in their advisory capabilities. An overwhelming majority (98%) expressed a desire to further their education in the broader cryptocurrency space. It’s important to reiterate that only 9% of those surveyed feel confident in their ability to advise towards bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. As noted above, this is a smaller percentage of the total financial advisory ecosystem, yet, of those involved, less than one out of every 10 advisors feels like they know what they are doing. “Crypto inflows through advisor channels show no signs of stopping, even as advisors grapple with compliance considerations and look for guidance from educational materials from other industry participants, including asset managers and index providers,” Rapaport said. “We expect ESG and crypto considerations to converge as investors continue to direct assets into both.” As traditional finance tries to embed itself amongst an emerging system, financial advisors still have a lot to learn. The educational gap, however, does not seem to be slowing down attempts to cash-in on the gains of the bitcoin ecosystem. “The vast majority of advisors we surveyed either plan to begin allocating to crypto or increase their existing allocation to crypto,” Rapaport said. “As demand continues to surge, advisors will be looking for an institutional solution to the crypto question that now dominates client conversations.” Tyler Durden Tue, 04/12/2022 - 14:08.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeApr 12th, 2022

Investment Bank Cowen To Offer Spot Bitcoin Trading

Investment Bank Cowen To Offer Spot Bitcoin Trading Submitted by Bitcoin Magazine Wall Street investment bank Cowen Inc. has debuted a new digital asset unit to offer spot bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading to institutional investors, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. The firm leveraged its small footprint to front-run its bigger competitors as the finance hub seeks to embrace the burgeoning asset class’ spot markets. Goldman Sachs executed its first over-the-counter (OTC) bitcoin options trade earlier this week, trying to plug into derivatives-based offerings as uncertainties and complexities around spot products hold back developments. “We have a big first mover advantage in this space,” Cowen co-president Dan Charney told Bloomberg. “Because of our culture, we’re able to work with our legal and compliance and our regulators in a way that maybe our bigger competitors aren’t, and we’re just able to get to solutions faster.” Cowen’s new business unit will target mainly the bank’s hedge fund, mutual fund and family office clients, per the report. Assets purchased by these institutions will be held under the custody of institutional-grade platform Standard Custody & Trust Co. It is unclear whether clients will be able to withdraw any bitcoin they purchase, but given that Cowen will act as a custodian it appears clients will not have that option. Without proper self-custody, those institutions will be limited to the potential price appreciation of the asset and not be able to store wealth without third-party risk or transact value freely. However, such use cases are arguably more compelling for individuals. Cowen’s new unit also plans to offer derivatives and futures trading of cryptocurrency, lending and institutional access to decentralized finance platforms and non-fungible tokens, per the report. The unit launched with 40 employees from the bank but it reportedly plans to more than double its staff soon. Tyler Durden Thu, 03/24/2022 - 15:44.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytMar 24th, 2022

VanEck"s "lowest-cost" bitcoin linked ETF is down Tuesday but it"s outperforming ProShares and Valkyrie funds down 5%

The VanEck Bitcoin Strategy Fund on Tuesday is seeing its first day of trading, with the bitcoin futures-pegged exchange-traded fund, which bills itself as the "lowest-cost" option, compared against rivals, outperforming "spot" bitcoin values . VanEck's ETF was down less 1%, at last check, on Tuesday afternoon, in its first day of trading on Cboe Global Markets Inc.'s Cboe BZX exchange. By comparison, spot bitcoin was down more than 5%, in line with the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF and Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF , which also are pegged to bitcoin futures traded on the CME Group's Chicago Mercantile Exchange . The VanEck offering has billed itself as a cheaper option to ProShares and Valkyrie funds, which came out before it. The VanEck's expense ratio is 0.65%, which translates to an annual cost of $6.50 for every $1,000 invested, compared with 0.95% for its two rivals. VanEck also claims that its ETF can be more tax-efficient than its rivals due to its C-corp structure. The outperformance of XBTF on Tuesday may provide some modest solace to the folks at VanEck who saw a spot bitcoin ETF rejected last week by the Securities and Exchange Commission on the grounds that it doesn't properly prevent fraud and market manipulation. However, first-mover advantage on bitcoin futures may ultimately carry the day, with ProShares boasting assets of around $1.4 billion, Valkyrie's bitcoin futures market looking after $60 million and VanEck likely to end Tuesday's session well below that, even considering its outperformance. Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatchNov 16th, 2021

Asset manager Valkyrie"s bitcoin futures ETF will start trading on Friday, reports say

The company's bitcoin futures ETF will start trading in the US on Friday, October 22, rivalling ProShares' own launch earlier this week, reports said. Bitcoin network Namthip Muanthongthae Valkyrie's bitcoin futures ETF will start trading in the US on Friday, October 22, media reports said. The Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker "BTF", according to an SEC filing Thursday. It will compete with ProShares' bitcoin futures ETF, the first in the US and the fastest ETF to top $1 billion in assets under management. Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell. Valkyrie, a traditional US investment manager, will launch a bitcoin futures exchange traded fund (ETF) on the ​​Nasdaq on Friday, making this the second such product to come to market this week, according to Bloomberg. The fund will give investors exposure to bitcoin via futures contracts, which means they do not have to own the cryptocurrency to benefit from its price action. Valkyrie was not immediately available to comment. The Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF will trade under the ticker BTF, according to a filing Thursday. The company had planned to use the ticker "BTFD", a spokesperson told Bloomberg, but later changed its mind. This ticker was interpreted as "buy the fucking dip," echoing the popular trading strategy where investors buy bitcoin when it falls.The investment management company is following ProShares, a US ETF provider, whose bitcoin futures ETF debuted on Tuesday. It has since amassed $1 billion assets under management, faster than any other fund.It had the second biggest trading debut of all time and its success has encouraged investors to pile into bitcoin. Bitcoin hit a record of $66,999 on Wednesday according to Coinbase data. It was last up 1.69% at $63,264 by 06:02 a.m. ET. The price has gained 47% so far in October - set for its biggest monthly gain so far this year."It's a very competitive industry - when you think about a lot of ETFs," Thomas Perfumo, head of business operations and strategy at crypto exchange Kraken, told Insider. "I don't know that first day, or first-mover, advantage with respect to this type of bitcoin ETF structure is going to matter that much. Totally up in the air," he said, talking about which ETF could end up number one. VanEck, another asset management firm, is en route to launch its own bitcoin futures ETF after October 23, according to an SEC filing this week.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 22nd, 2021

ProShares" bitcoin futures fund becomes the fastest ETF to top $1 billion in assets under management

The bitcoin ETF eclipsed the prior record holder, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, which hit $1 billion in assets in three days when it launched in 2004. A banner for the newly listed ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF hangs outside the New York Stock Exchange. Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy Fund is the fastest ETF to eclipse $1 billion in assets under management.The bitcoin futures ETF hit $1.1 billion in AUM after its second full day of trades.The prior record holder was the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, which took three days to hit $1 billion in AUM in 2004.Investor demand for the first bitcoin futures ETF is off the charts and setting records, according to data from Bloomberg.After just two days of trading, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF already has $1.1 billion in assets under management, making it the fastest ETF ever to eclipse the $1 billion mark. The fund also is the second biggest ETF launch ever as measured by trading volume. The bitcoin ETF topped the prior record holder, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, which hit $1 billion in assets in three days when it launched in 2004. It's fitting that a bitcoin fund knocked off a gold fund as the fastest ETF to hit $1 billion in assets, given that bitcoin is often touted as a better inflation hedge than gold. The surge in assets came amid a surge in the price of bitcoin, which hit a new record of about $67,000 on Wednesday.And the first-mover advantage for ProShares already translates into big business for the fund company. With an annual expense ratio of 0.95%, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF is on track to deliver annual revenue of at least $10 million to the company if the fund maintains at least $1 billion in assets.But other bitcoin futures ETFs are set to hit the market in the coming weeks, including a fund from VanEck, which is expected to launch next week.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 21st, 2021

US stocks notch 5th straight day of gains as investors cheer strong quarterly earnings

Of the 41 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 85% beat earning estimates by a median of 10%, according to Fundstrat. A stock trader claps at the end of trade at the New York Stock Exchange EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP via Getty Images The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notched their fifth-straight session of gains on Tuesday.Third-quarter earnings results are picking up where the second-quarter left off and impressing investors.Of the 41 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 85% beat earning estimates by a median of 10%.Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell.US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, helping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notch a five-day win streak amid an onslaught of third-quarter earnings results.Dow Jones components Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson both reported earnings results that were better than analyst expectations on Tuesday. Earnings results from S&P 500 company Intuitive Surgical leaked a couple hours early Tuesday afternoon and also beat earnings estimates.Of the 41 companies on the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 85% beat earning estimates by a median of 10%, according to Fundstrat. A total of 76 additional S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings results this week.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. ET close on Tuesday:S&P 500: 4,519.76, up 0.74%Dow Jones Industrial Average: 35,457.44, up 0.56% (198.83 points)Nasdaq Composite: 15,129.09, up 0.71%Bitcoin traded higher to about $63,000 on Tuesday as investors get ready for the highly anticipated launch of a bitcoin futures ETF. The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF had one of the best ETF launches ever, with more than $900 million worth of shares traded in its first day.Fundstrat's Tom Lee said the launch of a bitcoin futures ETF on Tuesday could jumpstart demand for the cryptocurrency and send it soaring 170% to $168,000 as an equilibrium between supply and demand is worked out.While the ProShares bitcoin futures ETF begins trading on Tuesday, Invesco ditched its plans to launch its own bitcoin futures ETF, losing out on a big potential first-mover advantage.The SEC released its summary report on the GameStop short-squeeze that took place earlier this year, and said overwhelmingly positive sentiment from Reddit day traders is what drove a bulk of the surge in the stock. A fund manager survey from Bank of America found that investor bullishness is at a one-year low as worries of inflation, supply chain disruptions, and a slowdown in economic growth begin to grow. The low sentiment readings come even as the S&P 500 trades 1% below its record high.West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 0.70%, to $82.26 per barrel. Brent crude, oil's international benchmark, rallied 0.74%, to $84.95 per barrel.Gold jumped as much as 0.89%, to $1,781.50 per ounce.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 19th, 2021

US stocks climb as markets strive for 5-day win streak on the back of strong corporate earnings

Of the 41 companies on the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 85% beat earning estimates by a median of 10%, according to Fundstrat. Xinhua/Wang Ying/Getty Images US stocks surged on Tuesday as third-quarter earnings continued to beat expectations.The S&P 500 is on track for a 5-day win streak and is just 1% below its record high.Bitcoin climbed to about $63,000 on Tuesday as the highly anticipated bitcoin futures ETF launches.Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell.US stocks moved higher on Tuesday and were on track for a 5-day win streak amid a continued deluge of strong third-quarter corporate earnings.Dow Jones components Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson both reported earnings results that were better than analyst expectations on Tuesday.Of the 41 companies on the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 85% beat earning estimates by a median of 10%, according to Fundstrat. A total of 76 additional S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings results this week.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. ET open on Tuesday:S&P 500: 4,501.67, up 0.34%Dow Jones Industrial Average: 35,369.83, up 0.32%Nasdaq Composite: 15,062.28, up 0.27%Bitcoin traded higher to about $63,000 on Tuesday as investors get ready for the highly anticipated launch of a bitcoin futures ETF.Fundstrat's Tom Lee said the launch of a bitcoin futures ETF on Tuesday could jumpstart demand for the cryptocurrency and send it soaring 170% to $168,000 as an equilibrium between supply and demand is worked out.While the ProShares bitcoin futures ETF begins trading on Tuesday, Invesco ditched its plans to launch its own bitcoin futures ETF, losing out on a big potential first-mover advantage.The SEC released its summary report on the GameStop short-squeeze that took place earlier this year, and said overwhelmingly positive sentiment from Reddit day traders is what drove a bulk of the surge in the stock. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 0.10%, to $81.77 per barrel. Brent crude, oil's international benchmark, rallied 0.14%, to $84.45 per barrel.Gold jumped as much as 0.89%, to $1,781.50 per ounce.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytOct 19th, 2021

Invesco ditches its plan to launch a US bitcoin futures ETF any time soon, just before the first-ever makes its debut

Invesco is yet to formally withdraw its ETF filing. But on Monday, it delayed the effective date of its futures-based ETF to October 29. Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Invesco abandoned plans to launch a US bitcoin futures ETF, just before the first-ever such fund begins trading. The firm filed to delay the listing Monday, and said it will focus on a physically-backed bitcoin ETF. A first-mover in the bitcoin futures ETF space is in a "winner take all" position, Fundstrat's Tom Lee said. Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell. Investment firm Invesco has abandoned its plan to launch a US bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund any time soon, right before rival ProShares is expected to begin trading the first-ever such ETF.The company has not formally withdrawn its ETF filing. But on Monday, it delayed the effective date of its Invesco Bitcoin Strategy ETF filing to October 29. Such moves are typically made when an issuer is yet to meet the required conditions to start trading."We have determined not to pursue the launch of a bitcoin futures ETF in the immediate near-term; however we will continue to work in partnership with Galaxy Digital to offer investors full shelf of products with exposure to this transformative asset class, including pursuing a physically backed, digital asset ETF," an Invesco spokesperson told Bloomberg in a statement.Invesco, one of the biggest ETF operators in the US, said in September that it would partner with Mike Novogratz's Galaxy Digital to launch crypto funds. It was seen as likely to launch the bitcoin futures ETF as soon as this week, given it was approaching the end of its filing period with the SEC.Invesco plans to "focus on blockchain stock ETFs (and spot bitcoin ETF) instead," Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said in a tweet. "Not sure why, esp bc they were next in line."One possible explanation is the fund that launches first has a significant first-mover advantage among people seeking a more regulated way to invest in bitcoin in their traditional brokerage and retirement accounts.Fundstrat's Tom Lee said in a tweet that a futures-based bitcoin ETF is one instance where the first-mover is in a "winner take all" position.A bitcoin futures ETF tracks the price of futures contracts - agreements to trade the asset at an agreed-upon price and date - rather than bitcoin itself. A physically-backed bitcoin ETF tracks the price of the cryptocurrency.But SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who isn't in favor of pure bitcoin ETFs, has said that futures-based products carry higher investor protection.The expected launch by ProShares of its bitcoin futures ETF on Tuesday is likely to usher in more listings from the backlog of similar applications awaiting SEC approval. A total of 19 other institutions are waiting to get the nod, including VanEck, and WisdomTree. Valkyrie's ETF is seen as making its debut on Wednesday.Bitcoin surged near $63,000 for the first time since April as investors took heart from the ETF milestone. "If it can hold $60k and even push through the all-time high of $64,804 achieved in April this week, we may see a big Christmas present for bitcoin investors," said Tim Frost, CEO of fintech Yield App.Invesco didn't immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.Read More: An ultimate guide to 10 top altcoins, their real-world applications, and why investors are betting their tech is the future of cryptoRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 19th, 2021

The SEC is ready to allow bitcoin futures ETFs to start trading next week, report says

Anticipation has been brewing for bitcoin futures ETFs to get the go-ahead from US regulators after a series of positive signs. Getty The first US bitcoin futures ETF is likely to start trading next week, Bloomberg reported late Thursday. It reported the SEC is unlikely to block the products, which would be a "watershed moment for crypto," an analyst said. Bitcoin hit a six-month-high above $60,000 on Friday, on hopes a bitcoin futures ETF is within reach. Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell. The Securities and Exchange Commission is set to allow the first US bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund to start trading next week, Bloomberg reported late Thursday.The SEC is not likely to block such products from beginning to trade next week, the news outlet reported, citing people familiar with the matter.Four proposed bitcoin ETFs are in line for an October decision from the SEC on whether to approve, deny or delay their submissions. The firms involved - ProShares, Valkyrie Investments, Invesco, and VanEck - are among several applicants waiting for word.ProShares and Invesco's proposals are based on futures contracts and filed under a 1940 law that the chairman of the SEC, Gary Gensler, has said provide "significant investor protection" for mutual funds and ETFs.While pure bitcoin ETFs have not found favor with Gensler, he has sounded more positive about those based on futures contracts for the digital asset. The SEC green light would be "a watershed moment for the crypto community, as they have been waiting for this since 2018," Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Avatrade, said in a note."The reflection of this optimism can also be seen by looking at the bitcoin price, which is only 7% away from its all-time high."Bitcoin briefly topped $60,000 for the first time since April on Friday, before slipping to around $59,440. Its price has been gaining over recent days in anticipation of ETF approval, with many expecting it could regain April's record high of $64,895 before the end of the year.Firms waiting for a crypto ETF decision from the SEC include Fidelity, WisdomTree, Wilshire Pheonix, VanEck, First Trust SkyBridge, and Valkyrie, as well as ProShares and Invesco.Whichever fund secures first approval could gain a significant first-mover advantage, as investors seek exposure to the price of the digital asset in their traditional brokerage and retirement accounts.Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss were the first to try to create a bitcoin futures ETF, without success, in the US in 2013. This year, crypto ETFs were approved in Canada and Europe.Anticipation that a bitcoin futures ETF is just around the corner has been brewing, given recent developments.Cathie Wood's Ark Invest has put its name to an ETF whose SEC application was filed by issuer Alpha Architect on Wednesday. The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin Futures Strategy ETF carries the ticker ARKA, a positive sign of pending regulatory approval, an analyst said.Some investors are flagging an SEC tweet as another positive signal. The regulator's investor education office on Thursday posted a link to a June notice that warns about crypto funds."Before investing in a fund that holds bitcoin futures contracts, make sure you carefully weigh the potential risks and benefits," the tweet said.The SEC last week gave the go-ahead to Volt Equity's ETF, which tracks stocks with significant exposure to bitcoin - seen as the closest fund to a bitcoin ETF so far.The SEC didn't immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.Read More: An ultimate guide to 10 top altcoins, their real-world applications, and why investors are betting their tech is the future of cryptoRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 15th, 2021

Bitcoin futures premium doubles ahead of SEC"s potential approval of an ETF next week

The annualized premium of CME bitcoin futures prices over bitcoin's spot value was 15%, compared to an average of 7.7% in the first 9 months of 2021. Bitcoin Nurphoto / Getty Images Bitcoin futures premium has doubled this month as the SEC rules on the potential of approval of several ETFs.SEC Chairman has recently voiced his support for bitcoin ETFs that hold futures contracts rather than directly holding bitcoin.The SEC is set to either approve, deny, or delay bitcoin ETF proposals from four firms over the next two weeks.Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell.The premium tied to bitcoin futures contracts has doubled this month as investors anticipate the SEC's potential approval of several bitcoin ETFs over the next two weeks.The SEC is set to either approve, deny, or delay bitcoin ETF proposals from ProShares, Valkyrie Investments, Invesco, and VanEck, which were all submitted to the regulatory agency in August. While still wary of a pure bitcoin ETF due to concerns for potential fraud, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has voiced his support in recent weeks for a bitcoin ETF that buys underlying futures contracts on the cryptocurrency rather than directly buying bitcoin itself. Since Gensler has made clear his thoughts on the possibility of bitcoin futures-based ETF, several issuers have submitted new ETF applications that would utilize that same approach, including Cathie Wood's ARK Invest.With approval of a bitcoin futures ETF looking more likely than ever, the annualized premium of CME bitcoin futures prices over bitcoin's spot value was 15%, compared to an average of 7.7% over the first nine months of the year, according to the Wall Street Journal.Given that there could very soon be a surge in demand for bitcoin futures contracts due to the onslaught of new ETFs, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is planning to raise the limit on the number of bitcoin futures contacts a single firm can hold. The SEC also seems to be ramping up education about bitcoin futures contracts ahead of their decision on the ETFs later this month. On Thursday, the SEC Investor Education Twitter account shared a link to more information on bitcoin futures and said, "Before investing in a fund that holds Bitcoin futures contracts, make sure you carefully weigh the potential risks and benefits."Whichever firm receives approval for the first bitcoin futures-based ETF could see a significant first-mover advantage as investors seek exposure to bitcoin in their traditional brokerage and retirement accounts. Bitcoin is up more than 30% so-far in October, and is up just over 100% year-to-date. Markets Insider Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 14th, 2021

Coinbase has 29% upside as the exchange is the "flagbearer" of the crypto economy, JMP says

"Coinbase is a flagbearer in the development of the broader crypto economy, and we expect it will remain a leader in the industry," JMP said. Coinbase. Thiago Prudêncio/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Coinbase stock has 29% upside from its current price as the "flagbearer" of the crypto economy, JMP Securities said. Coinbase shares, rated at market outperform, will reach $300, according to analysts Devin Ryan and Brian McKenna. They outlined three reasons why the stock will continue to outperform. Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell. Coinbase stock has 29% upside from its current price as the "flagbearer" of the cryptocurrency economy since both the company and the industry are still in the early innings of their growth cycles, JMP Securities said in its initial coverage of the stock Tuesday.Shares of the largest US crypto exchange, rated at market outperform, will reach $300, according to analysts Devin Ryan and Brian McKenna. Coinbase is trading 1.26% lower to $229.32 as of 1:19 p.m. ET Tuesday. "Coinbase is a flagbearer in the development of the broader crypto economy, and we expect it will remain a leader in the industry for years to come," they said.The firm, during its second-quarter earnings, said it aspires to become the "Amazon of assets," which the JMP analysts said is a fitting analogy. "Amazon was able to take its tech and operational expertise, and employ that into adjacent markets over time," they noted. "Amazon's advantage was in leveraging its leading scale, networks and logistics chains, and overall expertise and experience, which created value in these new markets as well."Here are three reasons why JMP sees Coinbase's stock continuing its rise:1. Mainstream adoption of cryptocurrenciesThe analysts said the fate of Coinbase is tied directly to that of the broader crypto market, which has "already hit escape velocity."In particular, they point out that bitcoin's market capitalization has peaked to $1 trillion faster than any other company in history and the billions of dollars of investment the crypto space has continued to receive."Despite the exponential scaling of adoption, we think the industry is still in its formative stage, and as use cases for crypto rapidly expand, we see tremendous upside for the companies that provide infrastructure to support this growth," the analysts said.2. First-mover advantageCoinbase has numerous competitive advantages as the pioneer, JMP said. Coinbase, which went public in April, has been launching new offerings to disrupt the traditional way finance is done. On Monday, it unveiled a new feature that will allow users to deposit their paychecks directly into their accounts on the cryptocurrency exchange.Yet, even with the company's more than 68 million users as of the second quarter of 2021 - an 84% year-on-year jump - the analysts believe Coinbase has only hit a sliver of its addressable market, leaving significant room for continued growth."Coinbase's increasing scale also supports its continued innovation into areas beyond trading, and we believe the ancillary revenue opportunities are almost limitless," they said. "As the business model evolves, we expect transactional revenues will become a smaller portion of overall revenue, and, as this revenue transition takes place, we believe a case for a higher valuation multiple can be supported."3. Risk/reward upsideAs Coinbase expands into new areas that the market may not even anticipate, JMP said the risk/reward in shares is attractive. The analysts don't see Coinbase stock moving in a straight line but added that there is material upside that offsets the risk. The stock, they said, is just 6.0x EV/2023E revenue in contrast to other high-growth and leading brand fintech firms. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderSep 28th, 2021

JPMorgan: Institutional Investors Are Piling Into Ethereum, Leaving Bitcoin

JPMorgan: Institutional Investors Are Piling Into Ethereum, Leaving Bitcoin It's not the first time that a major bank has expressed preference for ethereum over bitcoin: back in May, when Goldman published its initiating coverage on the crypto sector (available for professional subs in the usual place), the bank was surprisingly dismissive toward bitcoin which it saw as an electricity-draining Proof-of-Work, one trick pony... ... while praising ethereum (which is well on its way to becoming a much more efficient Proof-of-Stake in its Ethereum 2.0 metamorphosis) which it summarized as having the potential to one day become the "amazon of information" to wit: It’s all about information As the value of the coin is dependent on the value of the trustworthy information, blockchain technology has gravitated toward those industries where trust is most essential—finance, law and medicine. For the Bitcoin blockchain, this information is the record of every balance sheet in the network, and the transactions between them—originally the role of banks. In the case of a smart contract—a piece of code that executes according to a pre-set rule—on Ethereum, both the terms of that contract (the code) and the state of the contract (executed or not) are the information validated on the Ethereum blockchain. As a result, the counterparty in the contract cannot claim a transfer of funds without the network forming a consensus that the contract was indeed executed. In our view the most valuable crypto assets will be those that help verify the most critical information in the economy. Over time, the decentralized nature of the network will diminish concerns about storing personal data on the blockchain. One’s digital profile could contain personal data including asset ownership, medical history and even IP rights. Since this information is immutable—it cannot be changed without consensus—the trusted information can then be tokenized and traded. A blockchain platform like Ethereum could potentially become a large market for vendors of trusted information, like Amazon is for consumer goods today. Ether beats bitcoin as a store of value Given the importance of real uses in determining store of value, ether has high chance of overtaking bitcoin as the dominant digital store of value. The Ethereum ecosystem supports smart contracts and provides developers a way to create new applications on its platform. Most decentralized finance (DeFi) applications are being built on the Ethereum network, and most non-fungible tokens (NFTs) issued today are purchased using ether. The greater number of transactions in ether versus bitcoin reflects this dominance. As cryptocurrency use in DeFi and NFTs becomes more widespread, ether will build its own first-mover advantage in applied crypto technology. Ethereum can also be used to store almost any information securely and privately on a decentralized ledger. And this information can be tokenized and traded. This means that the Ethereum platform has the potential to become a large market for trusted information. We are seeing glimpses of that today with the sale of digital art and collectibles online through the use of NFTs. But this is a tiny peek at its actual practical uses. For example, individuals can store and sell their medical data through Ethereum to pharma research companies. A digital profile on Ethereum could contain personal data including asset ownership, medical history and even IP rights. Ethereum also has the benefit of running on a decentralized global server base rather than a centralized one like Amazon or Microsoft, possibly providing a solution to concerns about sharing personal data. We bring this up because overnight the assault on bitcoin - while praising bitcoin - was repeated by that "other" big bank, JPMorgan, which concluded that institutional investors are showing "a strong preference for ethereum versus bitcoin". It made this determination by looking at both the relative futures spread to spot for the two cryptos, as well as the relative institutional open interest in bitcoin vs ethereum. Starting with bitcoin, JPM's Nick Panigirtzoglou writes that this month’s correction in crypto markets saw bitcoin futures shifting into backwardation after spending August in contango. The charts below show the 21-day rolling average of the 2nd CME Bitcoin futures spread over spot since the beginning of 2018. According to JPM, bitcoin's backwardation "is a setback for bitcoin and a reflection of weak demand by institutional investors that tend to use regulated CME futures contracts to gain exposure to bitcoin." Why is this notable? Because as JPM explains, in a normal environment when demand for Bitcoin futures is not particularly weak, Bitcoin futures trade at a positive spread over spot, i.e. the futures curve is in contango. The typically high (above 5% annualized) futures to spot spread is a function of the high “risk-free” rate or opportunity cost implicit in crypto markets. Lending USD in crypto markets typically attracts annual interest rates of 5-10%, and this high “risk-free” rate is a common component in the futures vs. spot arbitrage trade across both bitcoin and ethereum futures. This high “risk-free” rate or opportunity cost is also likely a reflection of how “crypto-rich” and “cashpoor” crypto markets still are. Adding to this elevated “risk-free” rate storage costs of around 2% per annum, as well as similarly high transaction costs given the fragmentation in crypto markets, one can easily see why futures to spot spreads of as high as 10% per annum could be justified in a normal market environment in bitcoin or ethereum futures. But when demand is particularly weak and price expectations turn bearish, the futures curve shifts into backwardation. This was the case between last May and July as shown in Figure 11 above for CME Bitcoin futures. As a result, JPMorgan believes that the return to backwardation in September is a negative signal pointing to weak demand for bitcoin by institutional investors. In contrast, the largest US bank points to the ethereum futures chart which remains in contango and if anything this contango steepened in September towards a 7% annualized pace (on a 21-day rolling average basis). This, as Panigirtzoglou summarizes, "points to much healthier demand for ethereum vs. bitcoin by institutional investors." The strong divergence in demand is also evident in JPM's futures position proxy shown below; it has been rising for ethereum and declining for bitcoin steadily since August. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 14:40.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytSep 23rd, 2021

Investors are pouring cash into crypto at the highest level in 6 months as risk appetite returns and bitcoin wraps up best January since 2013

Investors made a large shift away from short-bets on bitcoin last week. The token's price has climbed about 40% in January. Bitcoin hasUmit Turhan Coskun/Getty Images Inflows into crypto more than tripled last week to the highest amount since July 2022. The bulk of the funds went into bitcoin as the cryptocurrency's price has soared to kick off 2023. Investors veered away from products that made short bets on bitcoin.  Inflows into cryptocurrency investment products more than tripled last week, with the swift spike concentrated in bitcoin as the world's most popular token headed for its strongest January performance in nearly a decade. Investment in digital assets rose to $117 million, the largest amount since July 2022, digital asset management firm CoinShares said in a weekly update published Monday. The bulk of that amount—$116 million—was poured into bitcoin.  A week earlier, inflows into crypto products clocked in at $36 million, but 68% went into short-investment products or those that profit when the price of the underlying asset falls. The funding wave accelerated as bitcoin's price continued to rise from the start of 2023. This month through mid-Monday trade, the cryptocurrency has soared about 40%, putting it on track for its best January gain since 2013. It traded at around $23,125 on Monday. The inflows into short-bitcoin products were "minor" last week, at $4.4 million, CoinShares said. Bitcoin has been in recovery mode so far this year after its 64% plunge in 2022.  "[Speculators] believe that bitcoin's winter is over," Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, said in a note late last week. At the same time, weakness in the US dollar as the Federal Reserve appears closer to pausing rate hikes has supported price gains for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, he said. Total assets under management in investment products have risen 43% from their lows in November to $28 billion. Geographically, Germany last week drew in the highest inflow amount, with 40% at $46 million. Canada logged $30 million, the US pulled in $26 million, and Switzerland landed $23 million.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nyt2 hr. 1 min. ago

Deflationary Ether Is Underperforming Bitcoin, Here Are 3 Reasons Why

While bitcoin has gained nearly 43% this month, ether has appreciated by 36%. Analysts said traders are worried that large amount of ether will be offloaded into the market post-Shanghai upgrade......»»

Category: forexSource: coindesk3 hr. 45 min. ago

First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Was Weekend Warrior

The latest price moves in bitcoin (BTC) and crypto markets in context for Jan. 30, 2023. First Mover is CoinDesk’s daily newsletter that contextualizes the latest actions in the crypto markets......»»

Category: forexSource: coindesk3 hr. 45 min. ago

Binance Partners With Mastercard to Launch Prepaid Crypto Card in Brazil

The card will allow payments with 13 cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, ether and Binance USD......»»

Category: forexSource: coindesk3 hr. 45 min. ago