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Deflationary Winds Howling

Without looking back, S&P 500 rallied in what feels as a short squeeze in ongoing risk-off environment. Daily rise in yields was not only unable to propel the dollar, but resulted in a much higher upswing in tech than value stocks – and that‘s a little fishy, especially when the long upper knot in VTV […] Without looking back, S&P 500 rallied in what feels as a short squeeze in ongoing risk-off environment. Daily rise in yields was not only unable to propel the dollar, but resulted in a much higher upswing in tech than value stocks – and that‘s a little fishy, especially when the long upper knot in VTV is considered. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get Our Icahn eBook! Get our entire 10-part series on Carl Icahn and other famous investors in PDF for free! Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet or print it! Sign up below. NO SPAM EVER (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The post-Fed relief simply took the bears for a little ride, and the Evergrande yuan bond repayment calmed the nerves. As if though the real estate sector was universally healthy – I think copper prices and the BHP stock price tell a different story. Things will still get interested in spite of PBOC moving in. The current macroeconomic environment will be very hard (economically and politically) to tighten into – have you noticed that the Turkish central bank unexpectedly cut rates? As I have written yesterday: (…) If June FOMC showed us anything, it was the power of (cheap) talk. We‘ve gone a long way since inflation‘s (getting out of hand) existence was acknowledged – yesterday, we were treated to very aggressive $10-15bn a month taper plans, cushioned with the „may be appropriate“ and Nov time designations. Coupled with the few and far away rate hikes on the dot plot, something fishy appears going on. While the real economy recovery progress has been acknowledged (how does that tie in with GDP downgrades and other macroeconomic realities I raised in yesterday‘s extensive analysis?), I think that the bar is being set a bit too high. Almost as if to give a (valid) reason for why not to taper right next. And the theater of taper on-off could go on, otherwise called jawboning, as markets reaction to this fragile phase of the economic recovery (marked by increasing deflationary undercurrents as shown by declining Treasury yields and contagion risks – make no mistake, Evergrande is the tip of the iceberg, real estate has been heating up over the last 1+ year around the world, and in the U.S. we have BlackRock mopping up residential real estate supply, underpinning high real estate prices especially when measured against income). Don‘t forget the weak non-farm payrolls either when it comes to the list of excuses to choose from. At the same time, we have not been entertained by the debt ceiling drama nearly enough yet. Right, the Fed is projecting the aura of independence, which made a Sep decision all the more unlikely. And who says we‘re short of drama these days? Given the S&P 500 sectoral performance and not exactly stellar market breadth, this is the time to be cautious, if you‘re a bull. Precious metals haven‘t yet caught the safe haven bid, but aren‘t decisively declining either. Dialing back the risk in stocks makes select commodities more vulnerable – copper more so than oil or natural gas, and cryptos are a chapter in its own right. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The bulls closed yesterday on a strong note, but the upswing was arguably a bit too steep on a very short-term basis. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds giving up their intraday gains coupled with rising yields in quality debt instruments, that‘s not entirely a picture of strength in the credit markets. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold declined on the no Fed taper celebrations, and the sectoral weakness is concentrated in the miners. When it comes to silver, the white metal would be influenced by the copper woes – look for good news on the red metal front before expecting the same for silver, that‘s the short-term assessment. Crude Oil Oil stocks performance lends credibility to the oil upswing, and black gold‘s chart is still bullish – energies are likely to do well even if any CRB hiccups occur. Copper Copper hesitation is back, and both the bulls and bears are waiting as shown by the low volume. The bears have the advantage here. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are suffering on renewed China headlines about cracking on crypto trading. The bears haven‘t gained full traction, though. Summary Yesterday‘s risk-on turn is likely to get questioned, with one day delay – revealing that it‘s not about the Fed setting a tad unrealistic taper pace and conditions. With no fresh stimulus coming, financial assets are facing a fiscal cliff in their own right, that‘s the big picture conclusion, which should temper the bullish appetite across many an asset class. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals. Thank you, Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals Oil Trading Signals Copper Trading Signals Bitcoin Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.co mk@monicakingsley.co All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Updated on Sep 24, 2021, 10:45 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 24th, 2021

So Much For Hawkish Fed

So long – better said (as if it did apply in the first place). If June FOMC showed us anything, it was the power of (cheap) talk. We‘ve gone a long way since inflation‘s (getting out of hand) existence was acknowledged – yesterday, we were treated to very aggressive $10-15bn a month taper plans, cushioned […] So long – better said (as if it did apply in the first place). If June FOMC showed us anything, it was the power of (cheap) talk. We‘ve gone a long way since inflation‘s (getting out of hand) existence was acknowledged – yesterday, we were treated to very aggressive $10-15bn a month taper plans, cushioned with the „may be appropriate“ and Nov time designations. Coupled with the few and far away rate hikes on the dot plot, something fishy appears going on. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more While the real economy recovery progress has been acknowledged (how does that tie in with GDP downgrades and other macroeconomic realities I raised in yesterday‘s extensive analysis?), I think that the bar is being set a bit too high. Almost as if to give a (valid) reason for why not to taper right next. And the theater of taper on-off could go on, otherwise called jawboning, as markets reaction to this fragile phase of the economic recovery (marked by increasing deflationary undercurrents as shown by declining Treasury yields and contagion risks – make no mistake, Evergrande is the tip of the iceberg, real estate has been heating up over the last 1+ year around the world, and in the U.S. we have BlackRock mopping up residential real estate supply, underpinning high real estate prices especially when measured against income). Don‘t forget the weak non-farm payrolls either when it comes to the list of excuses to choose from. At the same time, we have not been entertained by the debt ceiling drama nearly enough yet. Right, the Fed is projecting the aura of independence, which made a Sep decision all the more unlikely. And who says we‘re short of drama these days? So, S&P 500 looks seeing through the Fed fog, but don‘t forget about the historical tendency to fade the first day (FOMC day) move during the next 1-2 days. So, I‘m looking for a certain paring off of yesterday‘s upswing in both paper and real assets. And that includes backing and filling in both commodities, precious metals and cryptos. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook The bulls are on the move, running into headwinds though – more intraday hesitation (inan overall up day with a notable upper knot) is expected. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds again merely kept opening gains – there is still hesitation, but the bullish spirits are ever so slowly returning. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold was still stunned by the taper plans presented, and miners are bidding their time. We haven‘t turned the corner yet. Crude Oil Oil stocks confirmed the oil upswing, and black gold‘s chart still maintains bullish posture. Copper Copper didn‘t really hesitate – the red metal produced another wild upswing, but the volume and base is lacking, and might take a moment to establish itself. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded, but the volume could have been larger – what was amiss there, could be compensated by prices hanging above at least the midpoint of yesterday‘s white candle. Summary The balance of power is shifting to the bulls, who are about to face a retracement attempt of yesterday‘s upswing, however. The degree of its mildness would hint at what to expect next – crucially, the dollar is getting the Fed (not a hawk) message, which would serve to cushion any hiccups taking markets lower over the nearest days. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals. Thank you, Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals Oil Trading Signals Copper Trading Signals Bitcoin Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.co mk@monicakingsley.co All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Updated on Sep 23, 2021, 10:35 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 23rd, 2021

"Damn You To Hell, You Will Not Destroy America" - Here Is The "Spartacus COVID Letter" That"s Gone Viral

"Damn You To Hell, You Will Not Destroy America" - Here Is The 'Spartacus COVID Letter' That's Gone Viral Via The Automatic Earth blog, This is an anonymously posted document by someone who calls themselves Spartacus. Because it’s anonymous, I can’t contact them to ask for permission to publish. So I hesitated for a while, but it’s simply the best document I’ve seen on Covid, vaccines, etc. Whoever Spartacus is, they have a very elaborate knowledge in “the field”. If you want to know a lot more about the no. 1 issue in the world today, read it. And don’t worry if you don’t understand every single word, neither do I. But I learned a lot. The original PDF doc is here: Covid19 – The Spartacus Letter Hello, My name is Spartacus, and I’ve had enough. We have been forced to watch America and the Free World spin into inexorable decline due to a biowarfare attack. We, along with countless others, have been victimized and gaslit by propaganda and psychological warfare operations being conducted by an unelected, unaccountable Elite against the American people and our allies. Our mental and physical health have suffered immensely over the course of the past year and a half. We have felt the sting of isolation, lockdown, masking, quarantines, and other completely nonsensical acts of healthcare theater that have done absolutely nothing to protect the health or wellbeing of the public from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Now, we are watching the medical establishment inject literal poison into millions of our fellow Americans without so much as a fight. We have been told that we will be fired and denied our livelihoods if we refuse to vaccinate. This was the last straw. We have spent thousands of hours analyzing leaked footage from Wuhan, scientific papers from primary sources, as well as the paper trails left by the medical establishment. What we have discovered would shock anyone to their core. First, we will summarize our findings, and then, we will explain them in detail. References will be placed at the end. Summary: COVID-19 is a blood and blood vessel disease. SARS-CoV-2 infects the lining of human blood vessels, causing them to leak into the lungs. Current treatment protocols (e.g. invasive ventilation) are actively harmful to patients, accelerating oxidative stress and causing severe VILI (ventilator-induced lung injuries). The continued use of ventilators in the absence of any proven medical benefit constitutes mass murder. Existing countermeasures are inadequate to slow the spread of what is an aerosolized and potentially wastewater-borne virus, and constitute a form of medical theater. Various non-vaccine interventions have been suppressed by both the media and the medical establishment in favor of vaccines and expensive patented drugs. The authorities have denied the usefulness of natural immunity against COVID-19, despite the fact that natural immunity confers protection against all of the virus’s proteins, and not just one. Vaccines will do more harm than good. The antigen that these vaccines are based on, SARS-CoV- 2 Spike, is a toxic protein. SARS-CoV-2 may have ADE, or antibody-dependent enhancement; current antibodies may not neutralize future strains, but instead help them infect immune cells. Also, vaccinating during a pandemic with a leaky vaccine removes the evolutionary pressure for a virus to become less lethal. There is a vast and appalling criminal conspiracy that directly links both Anthony Fauci and Moderna to the Wuhan Institute of Virology. COVID-19 vaccine researchers are directly linked to scientists involved in brain-computer interface (“neural lace”) tech, one of whom was indicted for taking grant money from China. Independent researchers have discovered mysterious nanoparticles inside the vaccines that are not supposed to be present. The entire pandemic is being used as an excuse for a vast political and economic transformation of Western society that will enrich the already rich and turn the rest of us into serfs and untouchables. COVID-19 Pathophysiology and Treatments: COVID-19 is not a viral pneumonia. It is a viral vascular endotheliitis and attacks the lining of blood vessels, particularly the small pulmonary alveolar capillaries, leading to endothelial cell activation and sloughing, coagulopathy, sepsis, pulmonary edema, and ARDS-like symptoms. This is a disease of the blood and blood vessels. The circulatory system. Any pneumonia that it causes is secondary to that. In severe cases, this leads to sepsis, blood clots, and multiple organ failure, including hypoxic and inflammatory damage to various vital organs, such as the brain, heart, liver, pancreas, kidneys, and intestines. Some of the most common laboratory findings in COVID-19 are elevated D-dimer, elevated prothrombin time, elevated C-reactive protein, neutrophilia, lymphopenia, hypocalcemia, and hyperferritinemia, essentially matching a profile of coagulopathy and immune system hyperactivation/immune cell exhaustion. COVID-19 can present as almost anything, due to the wide tropism of SARS-CoV-2 for various tissues in the body’s vital organs. While its most common initial presentation is respiratory illness and flu-like symptoms, it can present as brain inflammation, gastrointestinal disease, or even heart attack or pulmonary embolism. COVID-19 is more severe in those with specific comorbidities, such as obesity, diabetes, and hypertension. This is because these conditions involve endothelial dysfunction, which renders the circulatory system more susceptible to infection and injury by this particular virus. The vast majority of COVID-19 cases are mild and do not cause significant disease. In known cases, there is something known as the 80/20 rule, where 80% of cases are mild and 20% are severe or critical. However, this ratio is only correct for known cases, not all infections. The number of actual infections is much, much higher. Consequently, the mortality and morbidity rate is lower. However, COVID-19 spreads very quickly, meaning that there are a significant number of severely-ill and critically-ill patients appearing in a short time frame. In those who have critical COVID-19-induced sepsis, hypoxia, coagulopathy, and ARDS, the most common treatments are intubation, injected corticosteroids, and blood thinners. This is not the correct treatment for COVID-19. In severe hypoxia, cellular metabolic shifts cause ATP to break down into hypoxanthine, which, upon the reintroduction of oxygen, causes xanthine oxidase to produce tons of highly damaging radicals that attack tissue. This is called ischemia-reperfusion injury, and it’s why the majority of people who go on a ventilator are dying. In the mitochondria, succinate buildup due to sepsis does the same exact thing; when oxygen is reintroduced, it makes superoxide radicals. Make no mistake, intubation will kill people who have COVID-19. The end-stage of COVID-19 is severe lipid peroxidation, where fats in the body start to “rust” due to damage by oxidative stress. This drives autoimmunity. Oxidized lipids appear as foreign objects to the immune system, which recognizes and forms antibodies against OSEs, or oxidation-specific epitopes. Also, oxidized lipids feed directly into pattern recognition receptors, triggering even more inflammation and summoning even more cells of the innate immune system that release even more destructive enzymes. This is similar to the pathophysiology of Lupus. COVID-19’s pathology is dominated by extreme oxidative stress and neutrophil respiratory burst, to the point where hemoglobin becomes incapable of carrying oxygen due to heme iron being stripped out of heme by hypochlorous acid. No amount of supplemental oxygen can oxygenate blood that chemically refuses to bind O2. The breakdown of the pathology is as follows: SARS-CoV-2 Spike binds to ACE2. Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 is an enzyme that is part of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system, or RAAS. The RAAS is a hormone control system that moderates fluid volume in the body and in the bloodstream (i.e. osmolarity) by controlling salt retention and excretion. This protein, ACE2, is ubiquitous in every part of the body that interfaces with the circulatory system, particularly in vascular endothelial cells and pericytes, brain astrocytes, renal tubules and podocytes, pancreatic islet cells, bile duct and intestinal epithelial cells, and the seminiferous ducts of the testis, all of which SARS-CoV-2 can infect, not just the lungs. SARS-CoV-2 infects a cell as follows: SARS-CoV-2 Spike undergoes a conformational change where the S1 trimers flip up and extend, locking onto ACE2 bound to the surface of a cell. TMPRSS2, or transmembrane protease serine 2, comes along and cuts off the heads of the Spike, exposing the S2 stalk-shaped subunit inside. The remainder of the Spike undergoes a conformational change that causes it to unfold like an extension ladder, embedding itself in the cell membrane. Then, it folds back upon itself, pulling the viral membrane and the cell membrane together. The two membranes fuse, with the virus’s proteins migrating out onto the surface of the cell. The SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid enters the cell, disgorging its genetic material and beginning the viral replication process, hijacking the cell’s own structures to produce more virus. SARS-CoV-2 Spike proteins embedded in a cell can actually cause human cells to fuse together, forming syncytia/MGCs (multinuclear giant cells). They also have other pathogenic, harmful effects. SARS-CoV- 2’s viroporins, such as its Envelope protein, act as calcium ion channels, introducing calcium into infected cells. The virus suppresses the natural interferon response, resulting in delayed inflammation. SARS-CoV-2 N protein can also directly activate the NLRP3 inflammasome. Also, it suppresses the Nrf2 antioxidant pathway. The suppression of ACE2 by binding with Spike causes a buildup of bradykinin that would otherwise be broken down by ACE2. This constant calcium influx into the cells results in (or is accompanied by) noticeable hypocalcemia, or low blood calcium, especially in people with Vitamin D deficiencies and pre-existing endothelial dysfunction. Bradykinin upregulates cAMP, cGMP, COX, and Phospholipase C activity. This results in prostaglandin release and vastly increased intracellular calcium signaling, which promotes highly aggressive ROS release and ATP depletion. NADPH oxidase releases superoxide into the extracellular space. Superoxide radicals react with nitric oxide to form peroxynitrite. Peroxynitrite reacts with the tetrahydrobiopterin cofactor needed by endothelial nitric oxide synthase, destroying it and “uncoupling” the enzymes, causing nitric oxide synthase to synthesize more superoxide instead. This proceeds in a positive feedback loop until nitric oxide bioavailability in the circulatory system is depleted. Dissolved nitric oxide gas produced constantly by eNOS serves many important functions, but it is also antiviral against SARS-like coronaviruses, preventing the palmitoylation of the viral Spike protein and making it harder for it to bind to host receptors. The loss of NO allows the virus to begin replicating with impunity in the body. Those with endothelial dysfunction (i.e. hypertension, diabetes, obesity, old age, African-American race) have redox equilibrium issues to begin with, giving the virus an advantage. Due to the extreme cytokine release triggered by these processes, the body summons a great deal of neutrophils and monocyte-derived alveolar macrophages to the lungs. Cells of the innate immune system are the first-line defenders against pathogens. They work by engulfing invaders and trying to attack them with enzymes that produce powerful oxidants, like SOD and MPO. Superoxide dismutase takes superoxide and makes hydrogen peroxide, and myeloperoxidase takes hydrogen peroxide and chlorine ions and makes hypochlorous acid, which is many, many times more reactive than sodium hypochlorite bleach. Neutrophils have a nasty trick. They can also eject these enzymes into the extracellular space, where they will continuously spit out peroxide and bleach into the bloodstream. This is called neutrophil extracellular trap formation, or, when it becomes pathogenic and counterproductive, NETosis. In severe and critical COVID-19, there is actually rather severe NETosis. Hypochlorous acid building up in the bloodstream begins to bleach the iron out of heme and compete for O2 binding sites. Red blood cells lose the ability to transport oxygen, causing the sufferer to turn blue in the face. Unliganded iron, hydrogen peroxide, and superoxide in the bloodstream undergo the Haber- Weiss and Fenton reactions, producing extremely reactive hydroxyl radicals that violently strip electrons from surrounding fats and DNA, oxidizing them severely. This condition is not unknown to medical science. The actual name for all of this is acute sepsis. We know this is happening in COVID-19 because people who have died of the disease have noticeable ferroptosis signatures in their tissues, as well as various other oxidative stress markers such as nitrotyrosine, 4-HNE, and malondialdehyde. When you intubate someone with this condition, you are setting off a free radical bomb by supplying the cells with O2. It’s a catch-22, because we need oxygen to make Adenosine Triphosphate (that is, to live), but O2 is also the precursor of all these damaging radicals that lead to lipid peroxidation. The correct treatment for severe COVID-19 related sepsis is non-invasive ventilation, steroids, and antioxidant infusions. Most of the drugs repurposed for COVID-19 that show any benefit whatsoever in rescuing critically-ill COVID-19 patients are antioxidants. N-acetylcysteine, melatonin, fluvoxamine, budesonide, famotidine, cimetidine, and ranitidine are all antioxidants. Indomethacin prevents iron- driven oxidation of arachidonic acid to isoprostanes. There are powerful antioxidants such as apocynin that have not even been tested on COVID-19 patients yet which could defang neutrophils, prevent lipid peroxidation, restore endothelial health, and restore oxygenation to the tissues. Scientists who know anything about pulmonary neutrophilia, ARDS, and redox biology have known or surmised much of this since March 2020. In April 2020, Swiss scientists confirmed that COVID-19 was a vascular endotheliitis. By late 2020, experts had already concluded that COVID-19 causes a form of viral sepsis. They also know that sepsis can be effectively treated with antioxidants. None of this information is particularly new, and yet, for the most part, it has not been acted upon. Doctors continue to use damaging intubation techniques with high PEEP settings despite high lung compliance and poor oxygenation, killing an untold number of critically ill patients with medical malpractice. Because of the way they are constructed, Randomized Control Trials will never show any benefit for any antiviral against COVID-19. Not Remdesivir, not Kaletra, not HCQ, and not Ivermectin. The reason for this is simple; for the patients that they have recruited for these studies, such as Oxford’s ludicrous RECOVERY study, the intervention is too late to have any positive effect. The clinical course of COVID-19 is such that by the time most people seek medical attention for hypoxia, their viral load has already tapered off to almost nothing. If someone is about 10 days post-exposure and has already been symptomatic for five days, there is hardly any virus left in their bodies, only cellular damage and derangement that has initiated a hyperinflammatory response. It is from this group that the clinical trials for antivirals have recruited, pretty much exclusively. In these trials, they give antivirals to severely ill patients who have no virus in their bodies, only a delayed hyperinflammatory response, and then absurdly claim that antivirals have no utility in treating or preventing COVID-19. These clinical trials do not recruit people who are pre-symptomatic. They do not test pre-exposure or post-exposure prophylaxis. This is like using a defibrillator to shock only flatline, and then absurdly claiming that defibrillators have no medical utility whatsoever when the patients refuse to rise from the dead. The intervention is too late. These trials for antivirals show systematic, egregious selection bias. They are providing a treatment that is futile to the specific cohort they are enrolling. India went against the instructions of the WHO and mandated the prophylactic usage of Ivermectin. They have almost completely eradicated COVID-19. The Indian Bar Association of Mumbai has brought criminal charges against WHO Chief Scientist Dr. Soumya Swaminathan for recommending against the use of Ivermectin. Ivermectin is not “horse dewormer”. Yes, it is sold in veterinary paste form as a dewormer for animals. It has also been available in pill form for humans for decades, as an antiparasitic drug. The media have disingenuously claimed that because Ivermectin is an antiparasitic drug, it has no utility as an antivirus. This is incorrect. Ivermectin has utility as an antiviral. It blocks importin, preventing nuclear import, effectively inhibiting viral access to cell nuclei. Many drugs currently on the market have multiple modes of action. Ivermectin is one such drug. It is both antiparasitic and antiviral. In Bangladesh, Ivermectin costs $1.80 for an entire 5-day course. Remdesivir, which is toxic to the liver, costs $3,120 for a 5-day course of the drug. Billions of dollars of utterly useless Remdesivir were sold to our governments on the taxpayer’s dime, and it ended up being totally useless for treating hyperinflammatory COVID-19. The media has hardly even covered this at all. The opposition to the use of generic Ivermectin is not based in science. It is purely financially and politically-motivated. An effective non-vaccine intervention would jeopardize the rushed FDA approval of patented vaccines and medicines for which the pharmaceutical industry stands to rake in billions upon billions of dollars in sales on an ongoing basis. The majority of the public are scientifically illiterate and cannot grasp what any of this even means, thanks to a pathetic educational system that has miseducated them. You would be lucky to find 1 in 100 people who have even the faintest clue what any of this actually means. COVID-19 Transmission: COVID-19 is airborne. The WHO carried water for China by claiming that the virus was only droplet- borne. Our own CDC absurdly claimed that it was mostly transmitted by fomite-to-face contact, which, given its rapid spread from Wuhan to the rest of the world, would have been physically impossible. The ridiculous belief in fomite-to-face being a primary mode of transmission led to the use of surface disinfection protocols that wasted time, energy, productivity, and disinfectant. The 6-foot guidelines are absolutely useless. The minimum safe distance to protect oneself from an aerosolized virus is to be 15+ feet away from an infected person, no closer. Realistically, no public transit is safe. Surgical masks do not protect you from aerosols. The virus is too small and the filter media has too large of gaps to filter it out. They may catch respiratory droplets and keep the virus from being expelled by someone who is sick, but they do not filter a cloud of infectious aerosols if someone were to walk into said cloud. The minimum level of protection against this virus is quite literally a P100 respirator, a PAPR/CAPR, or a 40mm NATO CBRN respirator, ideally paired with a full-body tyvek or tychem suit, gloves, and booties, with all the holes and gaps taped. Live SARS-CoV-2 may potentially be detected in sewage outflows, and there may be oral-fecal transmission. During the SARS outbreak in 2003, in the Amoy Gardens incident, hundreds of people were infected by aerosolized fecal matter rising from floor drains in their apartments. COVID-19 Vaccine Dangers: The vaccines for COVID-19 are not sterilizing and do not prevent infection or transmission. They are “leaky” vaccines. This means they remove the evolutionary pressure on the virus to become less lethal. It also means that the vaccinated are perfect carriers. In other words, those who are vaccinated are a threat to the unvaccinated, not the other way around. All of the COVID-19 vaccines currently in use have undergone minimal testing, with highly accelerated clinical trials. Though they appear to limit severe illness, the long-term safety profile of these vaccines remains unknown. Some of these so-called “vaccines” utilize an untested new technology that has never been used in vaccines before. Traditional vaccines use weakened or killed virus to stimulate an immune response. The Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines do not. They are purported to consist of an intramuscular shot containing a suspension of lipid nanoparticles filled with messenger RNA. The way they generate an immune response is by fusing with cells in a vaccine recipient’s shoulder, undergoing endocytosis, releasing their mRNA cargo into those cells, and then utilizing the ribosomes in those cells to synthesize modified SARS-CoV-2 Spike proteins in-situ. These modified Spike proteins then migrate to the surface of the cell, where they are anchored in place by a transmembrane domain. The adaptive immune system detects the non-human viral protein being expressed by these cells, and then forms antibodies against that protein. This is purported to confer protection against the virus, by training the adaptive immune system to recognize and produce antibodies against the Spike on the actual virus. The J&J and AstraZeneca vaccines do something similar, but use an adenovirus vector for genetic material delivery instead of a lipid nanoparticle. These vaccines were produced or validated with the aid of fetal cell lines HEK-293 and PER.C6, which people with certain religious convictions may object strongly to. SARS-CoV-2 Spike is a highly pathogenic protein on its own. It is impossible to overstate the danger presented by introducing this protein into the human body. It is claimed by vaccine manufacturers that the vaccine remains in cells in the shoulder, and that SARS- CoV-2 Spike produced and expressed by these cells from the vaccine’s genetic material is harmless and inert, thanks to the insertion of prolines in the Spike sequence to stabilize it in the prefusion conformation, preventing the Spike from becoming active and fusing with other cells. However, a pharmacokinetic study from Japan showed that the lipid nanoparticles and mRNA from the Pfizer vaccine did not stay in the shoulder, and in fact bioaccumulated in many different organs, including the reproductive organs and adrenal glands, meaning that modified Spike is being expressed quite literally all over the place. These lipid nanoparticles may trigger anaphylaxis in an unlucky few, but far more concerning is the unregulated expression of Spike in various somatic cell lines far from the injection site and the unknown consequences of that. Messenger RNA is normally consumed right after it is produced in the body, being translated into a protein by a ribosome. COVID-19 vaccine mRNA is produced outside the body, long before a ribosome translates it. In the meantime, it could accumulate damage if inadequately preserved. When a ribosome attempts to translate a damaged strand of mRNA, it can become stalled. When this happens, the ribosome becomes useless for translating proteins because it now has a piece of mRNA stuck in it, like a lace card in an old punch card reader. The whole thing has to be cleaned up and new ribosomes synthesized to replace it. In cells with low ribosome turnover, like nerve cells, this can lead to reduced protein synthesis, cytopathic effects, and neuropathies. Certain proteins, including SARS-CoV-2 Spike, have proteolytic cleavage sites that are basically like little dotted lines that say “cut here”, which attract a living organism’s own proteases (essentially, molecular scissors) to cut them. There is a possibility that S1 may be proteolytically cleaved from S2, causing active S1 to float away into the bloodstream while leaving the S2 “stalk” embedded in the membrane of the cell that expressed the protein. SARS-CoV-2 Spike has a Superantigenic region (SAg), which may promote extreme inflammation. Anti-Spike antibodies were found in one study to function as autoantibodies and attack the body’s own cells. Those who have been immunized with COVID-19 vaccines have developed blood clots, myocarditis, Guillain-Barre Syndrome, Bell’s Palsy, and multiple sclerosis flares, indicating that the vaccine promotes autoimmune reactions against healthy tissue. SARS-CoV-2 Spike does not only bind to ACE2. It was suspected to have regions that bind to basigin, integrins, neuropilin-1, and bacterial lipopolysaccharides as well. SARS-CoV-2 Spike, on its own, can potentially bind any of these things and act as a ligand for them, triggering unspecified and likely highly inflammatory cellular activity. SARS-CoV-2 Spike contains an unusual PRRA insert that forms a furin cleavage site. Furin is a ubiquitous human protease, making this an ideal property for the Spike to have, giving it a high degree of cell tropism. No wild-type SARS-like coronaviruses related to SARS-CoV-2 possess this feature, making it highly suspicious, and perhaps a sign of human tampering. SARS-CoV-2 Spike has a prion-like domain that enhances its infectiousness. The Spike S1 RBD may bind to heparin-binding proteins and promote amyloid aggregation. In humans, this could lead to Parkinson’s, Lewy Body Dementia, premature Alzheimer’s, or various other neurodegenerative diseases. This is very concerning because SARS-CoV-2 S1 is capable of injuring and penetrating the blood-brain barrier and entering the brain. It is also capable of increasing the permeability of the blood-brain barrier to other molecules. SARS-CoV-2, like other betacoronaviruses, may have Dengue-like ADE, or antibody-dependent enhancement of disease. For those who aren’t aware, some viruses, including betacoronaviruses, have a feature called ADE. There is also something called Original Antigenic Sin, which is the observation that the body prefers to produce antibodies based on previously-encountered strains of a virus over newly- encountered ones. In ADE, antibodies from a previous infection become non-neutralizing due to mutations in the virus’s proteins. These non-neutralizing antibodies then act as trojan horses, allowing live, active virus to be pulled into macrophages through their Fc receptor pathways, allowing the virus to infect immune cells that it would not have been able to infect before. This has been known to happen with Dengue Fever; when someone gets sick with Dengue, recovers, and then contracts a different strain, they can get very, very ill. If someone is vaccinated with mRNA based on the Spike from the initial Wuhan strain of SARS-CoV-2, and then they become infected with a future, mutated strain of the virus, they may become severely ill. In other words, it is possible for vaccines to sensitize someone to disease. There is a precedent for this in recent history. Sanofi’s Dengvaxia vaccine for Dengue failed because it caused immune sensitization in people whose immune systems were Dengue-naive. In mice immunized against SARS-CoV and challenged with the virus, a close relative of SARS-CoV-2, they developed immune sensitization, Th2 immunopathology, and eosinophil infiltration in their lungs. We have been told that SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines cannot be integrated into the human genome, because messenger RNA cannot be turned back into DNA. This is false. There are elements in human cells called LINE-1 retrotransposons, which can indeed integrate mRNA into a human genome by endogenous reverse transcription. Because the mRNA used in the vaccines is stabilized, it hangs around in cells longer, increasing the chances for this to happen. If the gene for SARS-CoV-2 Spike is integrated into a portion of the genome that is not silent and actually expresses a protein, it is possible that people who take this vaccine may continuously express SARS-CoV-2 Spike from their somatic cells for the rest of their lives. By inoculating people with a vaccine that causes their bodies to produce Spike in-situ, they are being inoculated with a pathogenic protein. A toxin that may cause long-term inflammation, heart problems, and a raised risk of cancers. In the long-term, it may also potentially lead to premature neurodegenerative disease. Absolutely nobody should be compelled to take this vaccine under any circumstances, and in actual fact, the vaccination campaign must be stopped immediately. COVID-19 Criminal Conspiracy: The vaccine and the virus were made by the same people. In 2014, there was a moratorium on SARS gain-of-function research that lasted until 2017. This research was not halted. Instead, it was outsourced, with the federal grants being laundered through NGOs. Ralph Baric is a virologist and SARS expert at UNC Chapel Hill in North Carolina. This is who Anthony Fauci was referring to when he insisted, before Congress, that if any gain-of-function research was being conducted, it was being conducted in North Carolina. This was a lie. Anthony Fauci lied before Congress. A felony. Ralph Baric and Shi Zhengli are colleagues and have co-written papers together. Ralph Baric mentored Shi Zhengli in his gain-of-function manipulation techniques, particularly serial passage, which results in a virus that appears as if it originated naturally. In other words, deniable bioweapons. Serial passage in humanized hACE2 mice may have produced something like SARS-CoV-2. The funding for the gain-of-function research being conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology came from Peter Daszak. Peter Daszak runs an NGO called EcoHealth Alliance. EcoHealth Alliance received millions of dollars in grant money from the National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (that is, Anthony Fauci), the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (part of the US Department of Defense), and the United States Agency for International Development. NIH/NIAID contributed a few million dollars, and DTRA and USAID each contributed tens of millions of dollars towards this research. Altogether, it was over a hundred million dollars. EcoHealth Alliance subcontracted these grants to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a lab in China with a very questionable safety record and poorly trained staff, so that they could conduct gain-of-function research, not in their fancy P4 lab, but in a level-2 lab where technicians wore nothing more sophisticated than perhaps a hairnet, latex gloves, and a surgical mask, instead of the bubble suits used when working with dangerous viruses. Chinese scientists in Wuhan reported being routinely bitten and urinated on by laboratory animals. Why anyone would outsource this dangerous and delicate work to the People’s Republic of China, a country infamous for industrial accidents and massive explosions that have claimed hundreds of lives, is completely beyond me, unless the aim was to start a pandemic on purpose. In November of 2019, three technicians at the Wuhan Institute of Virology developed symptoms consistent with a flu-like illness. Anthony Fauci, Peter Daszak, and Ralph Baric knew at once what had happened, because back channels exist between this laboratory and our scientists and officials. December 12th, 2019, Ralph Baric signed a Material Transfer Agreement (essentially, an NDA) to receive Coronavirus mRNA vaccine-related materials co-owned by Moderna and NIH. It wasn’t until a whole month later, on January 11th, 2020, that China allegedly sent us the sequence to what would become known as SARS-CoV-2. Moderna claims, rather absurdly, that they developed a working vaccine from this sequence in under 48 hours. Stephane Bancel, the current CEO of Moderna, was formerly the CEO of bioMerieux, a French multinational corporation specializing in medical diagnostic tech, founded by one Alain Merieux. Alain Merieux was one of the individuals who was instrumental in the construction of the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s P4 lab. The sequence given as the closest relative to SARS-CoV-2, RaTG13, is not a real virus. It is a forgery. It was made by entering a gene sequence by hand into a database, to create a cover story for the existence of SARS-CoV-2, which is very likely a gain-of-function chimera produced at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and was either leaked by accident or intentionally released. The animal reservoir of SARS-CoV-2 has never been found. This is not a conspiracy “theory”. It is an actual criminal conspiracy, in which people connected to the development of Moderna’s mRNA-1273 are directly connected to the Wuhan Institute of Virology and their gain-of-function research by very few degrees of separation, if any. The paper trail is well- established. The lab-leak theory has been suppressed because pulling that thread leads one to inevitably conclude that there is enough circumstantial evidence to link Moderna, the NIH, the WIV, and both the vaccine and the virus’s creation together. In a sane country, this would have immediately led to the world’s biggest RICO and mass murder case. Anthony Fauci, Peter Daszak, Ralph Baric, Shi Zhengli, and Stephane Bancel, and their accomplices, would have been indicted and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. Instead, billions of our tax dollars were awarded to the perpetrators. The FBI raided Allure Medical in Shelby Township north of Detroit for billing insurance for “fraudulent COVID-19 cures”. The treatment they were using? Intravenous Vitamin C. An antioxidant. Which, as described above, is an entirely valid treatment for COVID-19-induced sepsis, and indeed, is now part of the MATH+ protocol advanced by Dr. Paul E. Marik. The FDA banned ranitidine (Zantac) due to supposed NDMA (N-nitrosodimethylamine) contamination. Ranitidine is not only an H2 blocker used as antacid, but also has a powerful antioxidant effect, scavenging hydroxyl radicals. This gives it utility in treating COVID-19. The FDA also attempted to take N-acetylcysteine, a harmless amino acid supplement and antioxidant, off the shelves, compelling Amazon to remove it from their online storefront. This leaves us with a chilling question: did the FDA knowingly suppress antioxidants useful for treating COVID-19 sepsis as part of a criminal conspiracy against the American public? The establishment is cooperating with, and facilitating, the worst criminals in human history, and are actively suppressing non-vaccine treatments and therapies in order to compel us to inject these criminals’ products into our bodies. This is absolutely unacceptable. COVID-19 Vaccine Development and Links to Transhumanism: This section deals with some more speculative aspects of the pandemic and the medical and scientific establishment’s reaction to it, as well as the disturbing links between scientists involved in vaccine research and scientists whose work involved merging nanotechnology with living cells. On June 9th, 2020, Charles Lieber, a Harvard nanotechnology researcher with decades of experience, was indicted by the DOJ for fraud. Charles Lieber received millions of dollars in grant money from the US Department of Defense, specifically the military think tanks DARPA, AFOSR, and ONR, as well as NIH and MITRE. His specialty is the use of silicon nanowires in lieu of patch clamp electrodes to monitor and modulate intracellular activity, something he has been working on at Harvard for the past twenty years. He was claimed to have been working on silicon nanowire batteries in China, but none of his colleagues can recall him ever having worked on battery technology in his life; all of his research deals with bionanotechnology, or the blending of nanotech with living cells. The indictment was over his collaboration with the Wuhan University of Technology. He had double- dipped, against the terms of his DOD grants, and taken money from the PRC’s Thousand Talents plan, a program which the Chinese government uses to bribe Western scientists into sharing proprietary R&D information that can be exploited by the PLA for strategic advantage. Charles Lieber’s own papers describe the use of silicon nanowires for brain-computer interfaces, or “neural lace” technology. His papers describe how neurons can endocytose whole silicon nanowires or parts of them, monitoring and even modulating neuronal activity. Charles Lieber was a colleague of Robert Langer. Together, along with Daniel S. Kohane, they worked on a paper describing artificial tissue scaffolds that could be implanted in a human heart to monitor its activity remotely. Robert Langer, an MIT alumnus and expert in nanotech drug delivery, is one of the co-founders of Moderna. His net worth is now $5.1 billion USD thanks to Moderna’s mRNA-1273 vaccine sales. Both Charles Lieber and Robert Langer’s bibliographies describe, essentially, techniques for human enhancement, i.e. transhumanism. Klaus Schwab, the founder of the World Economic Forum and the architect behind the so-called “Great Reset”, has long spoken of the “blending of biology and machinery” in his books. Since these revelations, it has come to the attention of independent researchers that the COVID-19 vaccines may contain reduced graphene oxide nanoparticles. Japanese researchers have also found unexplained contaminants in COVID-19 vaccines. Graphene oxide is an anxiolytic. It has been shown to reduce the anxiety of laboratory mice when injected into their brains. Indeed, given SARS-CoV-2 Spike’s propensity to compromise the blood-brain barrier and increase its permeability, it is the perfect protein for preparing brain tissue for extravasation of nanoparticles from the bloodstream and into the brain. Graphene is also highly conductive and, in some circumstances, paramagnetic. In 2013, under the Obama administration, DARPA launched the BRAIN Initiative; BRAIN is an acronym for Brain Research Through Advancing Innovative Neurotechnologies®. This program involves the development of brain-computer interface technologies for the military, particularly non-invasive, injectable systems that cause minimal damage to brain tissue when removed. Supposedly, this technology would be used for healing wounded soldiers with traumatic brain injuries, the direct brain control of prosthetic limbs, and even new abilities such as controlling drones with one’s mind. Various methods have been proposed for achieving this, including optogenetics, magnetogenetics, ultrasound, implanted electrodes, and transcranial electromagnetic stimulation. In all instances, the goal is to obtain read or read-write capability over neurons, either by stimulating and probing them, or by rendering them especially sensitive to stimulation and probing. However, the notion of the widespread use of BCI technology, such as Elon Musk’s Neuralink device, raises many concerns over privacy and personal autonomy. Reading from neurons is problematic enough on its own. Wireless brain-computer interfaces may interact with current or future wireless GSM infrastructure, creating neurological data security concerns. A hacker or other malicious actor may compromise such networks to obtain people’s brain data, and then exploit it for nefarious purposes. However, a device capable of writing to human neurons, not just reading from them, presents another, even more serious set of ethical concerns. A BCI that is capable of altering the contents of one’s mind for innocuous purposes, such as projecting a heads-up display onto their brain’s visual center or sending audio into one’s auditory cortex, would also theoretically be capable of altering mood and personality, or perhaps even subjugating someone’s very will, rendering them utterly obedient to authority. This technology would be a tyrant’s wet dream. Imagine soldiers who would shoot their own countrymen without hesitation, or helpless serfs who are satisfied to live in literal dog kennels. BCIs could be used to unscrupulously alter perceptions of basic things such as emotions and values, changing people’s thresholds of satiety, happiness, anger, disgust, and so forth. This is not inconsequential. Someone’s entire regime of behaviors could be altered by a BCI, including such things as suppressing their appetite or desire for virtually anything on Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs. Anything is possible when you have direct access to someone’s brain and its contents. Someone who is obese could be made to feel disgust at the sight of food. Someone who is involuntarily celibate could have their libido disabled so they don’t even desire sex to begin with. Someone who is racist could be forced to feel delight over cohabiting with people of other races. Someone who is violent could be forced to be meek and submissive. These things might sound good to you if you are a tyrant, but to normal people, the idea of personal autonomy being overridden to such a degree is appalling. For the wealthy, neural laces would be an unequaled boon, giving them the opportunity to enhance their intelligence with neuroprosthetics (i.e. an “exocortex”), and to deliver irresistible commands directly into the minds of their BCI-augmented servants, even physically or sexually abusive commands that they would normally refuse. If the vaccine is a method to surreptitiously introduce an injectable BCI into millions of people without their knowledge or consent, then what we are witnessing is the rise of a tyrannical regime unlike anything ever seen before on the face of this planet, one that fully intends to strip every man, woman, and child of our free will. Our flaws are what make us human. A utopia arrived at by removing people’s free will is not a utopia at all. It is a monomaniacal nightmare. Furthermore, the people who rule over us are Dark Triad types who cannot be trusted with such power. Imagine being beaten and sexually assaulted by a wealthy and powerful psychopath and being forced to smile and laugh over it because your neural lace gives you no choice but to obey your master. The Elites are forging ahead with this technology without giving people any room to question the social or ethical ramifications, or to establish regulatory frameworks that ensure that our personal agency and autonomy will not be overridden by these devices. They do this because they secretly dream of a future where they can treat you worse than an animal and you cannot even fight back. If this evil plan is allowed to continue, it will spell the end of humanity as we know it. Conclusions: The current pandemic was produced and perpetuated by the establishment, through the use of a virus engineered in a PLA-connected Chinese biowarfare laboratory, with the aid of American taxpayer dollars and French expertise. This research was conducted under the absolutely ridiculous euphemism of “gain-of-function” research, which is supposedly carried out in order to determine which viruses have the highest potential for zoonotic spillover and preemptively vaccinate or guard against them. Gain-of-function/gain-of-threat research, a.k.a. “Dual-Use Research of Concern”, or DURC, is bioweapon research by another, friendlier-sounding name, simply to avoid the taboo of calling it what it actually is. It has always been bioweapon research. The people who are conducting this research fully understand that they are taking wild pathogens that are not infectious in humans and making them more infectious, often taking grants from military think tanks encouraging them to do so. These virologists conducting this type of research are enemies of their fellow man, like pyromaniac firefighters. GOF research has never protected anyone from any pandemic. In fact, it has now started one, meaning its utility for preventing pandemics is actually negative. It should have been banned globally, and the lunatics performing it should have been put in straitjackets long ago. Either through a leak or an intentional release from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a deadly SARS strain is now endemic across the globe, after the WHO and CDC and public officials first downplayed the risks, and then intentionally incited a panic and lockdowns that jeopardized people’s health and their livelihoods. This was then used by the utterly depraved and psychopathic aristocratic class who rule over us as an excuse to coerce people into accepting an injected poison which may be a depopulation agent, a mind control/pacification agent in the form of injectable “smart dust”, or both in one. They believe they can get away with this by weaponizing the social stigma of vaccine refusal. They are incorrect. Their motives are clear and obvious to anyone who has been paying attention. These megalomaniacs have raided the pension funds of the free world. Wall Street is insolvent and has had an ongoing liquidity crisis since the end of 2019. The aim now is to exert total, full-spectrum physical, mental, and financial control over humanity before we realize just how badly we’ve been extorted by these maniacs. The pandemic and its response served multiple purposes for the Elite: Concealing a depression brought on by the usurious plunder of our economies conducted by rentier-capitalists and absentee owners who produce absolutely nothing of any value to society whatsoever. Instead of us having a very predictable Occupy Wall Street Part II, the Elites and their stooges got to stand up on television and paint themselves as wise and all-powerful saviors instead of the marauding cabal of despicable land pirates that they are. Destroying small businesses and eroding the middle class. Transferring trillions of dollars of wealth from the American public and into the pockets of billionaires and special interests. Engaging in insider trading, buying stock in biotech companies and shorting brick-and-mortar businesses and travel companies, with the aim of collapsing face-to-face commerce and tourism and replacing it with e-commerce and servitization. Creating a casus belli for war with China, encouraging us to attack them, wasting American lives and treasure and driving us to the brink of nuclear armageddon. Establishing technological and biosecurity frameworks for population control and technocratic- socialist “smart cities” where everyone’s movements are despotically tracked, all in anticipation of widespread automation, joblessness, and food shortages, by using the false guise of a vaccine to compel cooperation. Any one of these things would constitute a vicious rape of Western society. Taken together, they beggar belief; they are a complete inversion of our most treasured values. What is the purpose of all of this? One can only speculate as to the perpetrators’ motives, however, we have some theories. The Elites are trying to pull up the ladder, erase upward mobility for large segments of the population, cull political opponents and other “undesirables”, and put the remainder of humanity on a tight leash, rationing our access to certain goods and services that they have deemed “high-impact”, such as automobile use, tourism, meat consumption, and so on. Naturally, they will continue to have their own luxuries, as part of a strict caste system akin to feudalism. Why are they doing this? Simple. The Elites are Neo-Malthusians and believe that we are overpopulated and that resource depletion will collapse civilization in a matter of a few short decades. They are not necessarily incorrect in this belief. We are overpopulated, and we are consuming too many resources. However, orchestrating such a gruesome and murderous power grab in response to a looming crisis demonstrates that they have nothing but the utmost contempt for their fellow man. To those who are participating in this disgusting farce without any understanding of what they are doing, we have one word for you. Stop. You are causing irreparable harm to your country and to your fellow citizens. To those who may be reading this warning and have full knowledge and understanding of what they are doing and how it will unjustly harm millions of innocent people, we have a few more words. Damn you to hell. You will not destroy America and the Free World, and you will not have your New World Order. We will make certain of that. *  *  * This PDF document contains 14 pages, followed by another 17 pages of references. For those, please visit the original PDF file at Covid19 – The Spartacus Letter. *  *  * We try to run the Automatic Earth on donations. Since ad revenue has collapsed, you are now not just a reader, but an integral part of the process that builds this site. Thank you for your support. Support the Automatic Earth in virustime. Donate with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/27/2021 - 00:00.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nyt1 hr. 27 min. ago

Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Future of Surveillance And Control

Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Future of Surveillance And Control Submitted by Ronan Manly, BullionStar.com One of the most potentially far-reaching trends in the financial landscape right now is the imminent roll-out of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), and the parallel attacks which central bankers are waging on private digital currencies and tokens as they tee up the launch of their CBDCs. First some clarifications. While the majority of central bank issued currencies (fiat currencies) in existence around the world are already in digital form, a fiat currency held in digital form is not the same as a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). What is a CBDC? A CBDC generally refers to electronic or virtual central bank (fiat) money that is created in the form of digital tokens or account balances which are digital claims on the central bank. CBDCs will be issued by central banks and will be legal tender. Many CBDCs that are being researched and developed employ Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), with the recording of transactions on a blockchain.  However unlike private cryptocurrencies which use a permissionless and open design, CBDCs that use DLT will use permissioned variants (deciding who has access to the network and who can view and update records in the ledger). See here for a discussion of permissionless vs permissioned blockchains. CBDCs - The antithesis to decentralized private cryptocurrencies and tokens Critically, as the name suggests, CBDCs will be centralized and governed by the issuing authority (i.e. a central bank). So, in their design and structure, CBDCs can be viewed as the very antithesis to decentralized private cryptocurrencies and tokens. Central banks have already working on two types of CBDCs, ‘wholesale’ digital tokens that would have access restricted to banks and financial entities to be used for activities like interbank payments and wholesale market transactions, and ‘general purpose’ (retail) CBDC for the general public to be used in retail transactions. It is this ‘general purpose’ CBDC which most people are referring to when they discuss central bank digital currencies, and it is these ‘general purpose’ CBDCs that will be most important to watch when  central banks and governments begin to attempt their roll-outs to distribute CBDCs to billions of people across the world either through account-based CBDCs or ‘digital cash’ tokens. As you can guess, account-based CBDCs will be tied to user identities and Digital IDs, and straight off the bat they allow for total surveillance by the State and torpedo any chance of anonymity. For this reason, they are already a favourite among central banks. Given that CBDCs will be centralized ledgers and can be programmable, the ‘digital cash’ token option is not much better in terms of privacy and freedom. The Bank for International Settlements - The Dark Tower of Basel Many central banks will probably opt for a hybrid model of both account-based and token based digital cash. As an example, Canada, the one time liberal democracy, perhaps illustrates the account-based vs token based choices best, where Canada’s central bank, the Bank of Canada, in it’s design documentation for CBDCs shows that at the end of the day, it's about surveillance and control, saying that: “anonymous token-based options would be allowable for smaller payments, while account-based access would be required for larger purchases.” Central banks are also experimenting with various models for distribution of CBDCs to the masses, including using private commercial banks and payment providers who will intermediate on the central banks’ behalf, and also direct distribution of payments by a central bank to a population. Either way, you can see that CBDCs greatly facilitate the statists to advance their Orwellian plans for Universal Basic Income (UBI) and dependency on the state.    Accelerating rollout CBDCs are not just a buzzword or a hazy innovation that may appear sometime in the distant future. They are actively being developed now, and in widespread fashion. In January 2020, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) issued the results of a survey on CBDCs that it had conducted in the second half of 2019, and to which 66 central banks had responded. Strikingly, 10% of central bank respondents (which represented a fifth of the world’s population) said that they were likely to issue a ‘general purpose’ CBDC (for the general public) in the near future (within the next 3 years). Another 20% of central bank respondents said they would likely issue a ‘general purpose’ CBDC in the medium term (within 6 years). In August 2020, the BIS published a comprehensive working paper on CBDCs titled “Rise of the central bank digital currencies: drivers, approaches and technologies” one part of which analysed the BIS database of central banker speeches and found that between December 2013 and May 2020, there had been 138 central banker speeches mentioning CBDCs, with a dramatic increase in CBDC related speeches since 2016, a timeframe which coincided with central banks launching research projects on CBDCs. The same BIS report also highlighted that, (totally coincidentally) the Covid-19 'pandemic'  "accelerated work on CBDCs in some jurisdictions."  BIS slide on CBDC global project status - August 2021. Source. Fast forward to right now, and on the website of the globalist Atlantic Council (headquartered in Washington D.C.), there is an interesting Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker which lists all the countries that have either launched or piloted a CBDC or are developing or researching a CBDC. Here we find that 5 central banks have already launched a CBDC, 14 have a CBDC in pilot, 16 have a CBDC in development, and another 32 central banks are at the research stage with their CBDC. That makes 67 central banks (countries in total). While the 5 currency areas that have already launched a CBDC are all islands in the Caribbean, the central banks at the pilot stage include heavy weights such as China, South Korea, Thailand, Saudi Arabia and Sweden.   Those at the development stage include the central banks of Canada, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, France and Nigeria. Those at the research stage include the central banks of the US, UK, Australia, Norway, India, Pakistan and Indonesia. So as you can see, this is not some theoretical issue. Centrally controlled digital currencies are coming down the pipe in a big way, and some will be appearing, if not imminently, then very soon. And given the ease with which governments have imposed lockdowns and restrictions on their compliant populations during 2020 and 2021, it is not hard to envisage that these same pliable masses will be easily influenced to embrace CBDCs as being in their 'best interests'. BIS Switzerland - The Usual Suspect    In fact, one third of the entire BIS annual report 2021 is focused on CBDCs in a section titled “CBDCs: an opportunity for the monetary system”. Here, the BIS predictably trumpets the benefits of introducing central bank issued centralized digital currencies while at the same time attempting to undermine private cryptocurrencies. The BIS wording reveals the fact that central banks are in panic over the competitive threat of private cryptos and have accelerated the development of CBDCs partially due to this fear, with the BIS stating that: “Central bank interest in CBDCs comes at a critical time. Several recent developments have placed a number of potential innovations involving digital currencies high on the agenda. The first of these is the growing attention received by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies; the second is the debate on stablecoins; and the third is the entry of large technology firms (big techs) into payment services and financial services more generally.” The BIS then attempts to dismiss each of these 3 threats: Cryptocurrencies, claims the BIS “are speculative assets rather than money, and in many cases are used to facilitate money laundering, ransomware attacks and other financial crimes”. Bitcoin comes in for some special mention with the BIS saying that “Bitcoin in particular has few redeeming public interest attributes when also considering its wasteful energy footprint’. Stablecoins, says the BIS “attempt to import credibility by being backed by real currencies” that are “ultimately only an appendage to the conventional monetary system and not a game changer.” The entry of large tech firms that dominate social networks, search, messaging, and e-commerce into the realm of financial services and payments provision infrastructure seems to especially bother the BIS, and it spins it’s criticism into the argument that although these platforms have large network affects, this creates “further concentration” in the market for payments. The irony is not lost on the fact that it’s the BIS, as the central bank of central banks and one of the most concentrated power centres in the world, that is criticizing others’ “concentration” of power.   Throughout this CBDC pitch, the BIS report refers at numerous points that digital currencies should be “in the public interest”, which really means that digital currencies should be controlled by the BIS and its central bank members, as well as perpetuate their centralized monetary power structure. The BIS even has the gall to claim that CBDCs should respect privacy rights, when in fact the whole architecture, rationale and design of central bank digital currencies will allow central banks and national authorities to invade totally on privacy rights.  But sometimes the BIS let's it's guard down, and reveals it's authoritarian plans for CBDCs. A case in point is a recent interview with Agustín Carstens general manager of the BIS, where he chillingly said:  "We don’t know who’s using a $100 bill today and we don’t know who’s using a 1,000 peso bill today. The key difference with the CBDC is the central bank will have absolute control on the rules and regulations that will determine the use of that expression of central bank liability, and also we will have the technology to enforce that.” See video segment below for Carstens' remarks: Singing from the Same Song Sheet With the BIS is Basel Switzerland as the conductor and orchestrator, it's not surprising that central bank governors and country heads are now singing from the same song sheet, the song being ‘private digital currencies bad, central bank digital currencies good’. Earlier this month (September 2021) at a banking conference in Stockholm, the governor of Sweden’s central bank (Riksbank), Stefan Ingves, commented that ‘private money usually collapses sooner or later’, while conveniently failing to mention the hundreds of government and central bank issued paper currencies that have collapsed throughout history due to overprinting, depreciation and hyperinflation. Nor did Ingves mention Voltaire’s famous quote that “Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value - zero”. Ingves, whose country is one of the leaders in promoting a cashless society, also took a derogatory swipe at Bitcoin saying “sure, you can get rich by trading in bitcoin, but it’s comparable to trading in stamps.” All the while the Riksbank is pushing ahead with it’s central bank digital currency, called the e-krona, a CBDC which uses distributed ledger technology, and which the Swedish central bank is currently testing in conjunction with Handelsbanken, one of Sweden’s largest retail banks. In the same week as Ingves’s comments in Sweden, the governor of Mexico’s central bank, Alejandro Diaz de Leon, was also taking a shot at private cryptocurrencies and for good measure he also put the boot into precious metals. Diaz de Leon said that Bitcoin is more like a method of barter than ‘evolved’ fiat money, and continued “in our times, money has evolved to be fiat money issued by central banks. Bitcoin is more like a dimension of precious metals than daily legal tender.” That comment, which attacks two birds with one stone (crypto and precious metals), will definitely please his central bank governor colleagues at thee BIS, and may even earn Diaz de Leon a nomination as the next BIS general manager, to succeed his fellow countryman Agustín Carstens.    Speaking of the BIS, Benoit Coeure, head of the BIS Innovation Hub, also gave a WEF style speech about CBDCs in early September, acknowledging the convenient catalyst of the covid 'pandemic', and the accelerated development of CBDCs by central banks:  "the world is not returning to the old normal. Payments are a case in point. The pandemic has accelerated a longer-running move to digital .... the world's central banks are stepping up efforts to prepare the ground for digital cash – central bank digital currency (CBDC): "A CBDC's goal is ultimately to preserve the best elements of our current systems while still allowing a safe space for tomorrow's innovation. To do so, central banks have to act while the current system is still in place – and to act now." Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, also recently joined in the attack on private digital currencies, while simultaneously promoting Turkey’s CBDC. At an event on 18 September, the Turkish president stated that:  “we have absolutely no intention of embracing cryptocurrencies” “on the contrary, we have a separate war, a separate fight against them. We would never lend support to [cryptocurrencies]. Because we will move forward with our own currency that has its own identity.” PBOC SAYS ALL CRYPTO-RELATED TRANSACTIONS ARE ILLEGAL So the digital yuan is a complete disaster eh? — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 24, 2021 China: Digital Yuan - An Ominous Blueprint  A huge red flag over CBDCs and user privacy is that these central bank digital currencies are programmable, as details on China’s ‘Digital Yuan’ already show. For example, the Digital Yuan can be programmed to be activated on a certain date, programmed to expire on a certain date, programmed to be only valid for certain purchases, and ominously, programmed to be only available to citizens who meet certain pre-conditions. As a potential blueprint for other CBDCs, people across the world need to sit up and take notice, because the issuing authorities of these CBDCs coming down the pipe can therefore decide who gets access to CBDCs, what they can transact using those currencies, and how long the purchasing power remains valid. Central Banks can thus influence and control the behaviour of the recipients of this centralised digital cash,  as well as exclude those who they want to penalize or who don’t comply with the State's rules or parameters. And right on cue as this article was just published, Chinese authorities have now announced (on 24 September)  a total ban on all cryptocurrency transactions. Except of course, it's upcoming authoritarian Digital Yuan.    The future according to WEF's Klaus Schwab and his Elite private banker handlers Conclusion - Slavery or Monetary Freedom Although central banks will claim that they are introducing CBDCs for reasons such as improving payments efficiency, boosting financial inclusion for the unbanked and tackling illicit transactions, their real motivations, as always, are for surveillance and control. Surveillance of a population via complete visibility into financial transaction flow and user identities, and centralized control of the money supply within a cashless financial system. Think China’s social credit system on a global dystopian scale, where vax passes evolve into digital IDs and digital IDs link to CBDC issuance and use. In fact, the entire coercion around implementing vaccine passports and digital IDs looks to be a pre-planned stepping stone for the roll-out of central bank digital currencies and global social credit systems. The timing of the accelerated emergence of CBDCs may partially be an attempt by central banks to outflank the numerous private cryptocurrencies, tokens and decentralized finance ecosystems that have emerged and that are a threat to the power of the centralized banking system at whose apex sits the BIS. But it would be naïve to think that central banks that knew in advance about the initiation of a‘WEF’ global technocratic and corpocratic takeover that would begin in 2020, are not now orchestrating the rollout of CBDCs as part of a long-term global agenda, that agenda being the global socialist Agenda 2030, and a future in which, according to the Davos World Economic Forum (WEF) “You’ll own nothing. And you’ll be happy”. BIS and central bank attacks against private cryptocurrencies are to be expected. After all, the same central banks and the BIS have waged a very long war against physical gold and silver. And precious metals have been money since 4000 B.C.. With the launch of CBDCs by central banks and their elitist private banking controllers, that war looks set to intensify. So, do you want a future of monetary freedom, or a future of perpetual slavery to central banker CBDCs?  If you want monetary freedom, then ownership of physical precious metals and private and anonymous digital currencies are now some of the only ways to counter and protect against the ominous CBDC plans which the BIS and its central bank members are intent with imminently rolling out. *  *  * This article originally appeared on the BullionStar.com website under the same title "Central Bank Digital Currencies – A Future of Surveillance and Control" Tyler Durden Sun, 09/26/2021 - 15:00.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nyt10 hr. 15 min. ago

Stocks Shrug As Taper Tantrum Sparks Bond Bloodbath; Beijing Batters Bitcoin

Stocks Shrug As Taper Tantrum Sparks Bond Bloodbath; Beijing Batters Bitcoin US equity markets rebounded from Monday's pukefest on Evergrande fears (which actually came to be realized as the giant property developer did indeed default on its foreign dollar bonds). But then headlines about SOEs preparing for collapse and the payment of a local yuan bond's coupon seemed to spark exuberance. A brief taper tantrum ensued in equities after the FOMC statement, which ignited momentum higher and shorts were squeezed as rates spiked. The surge in rates, however, hammered the growthier assets and Nasdaq underperformed, ending the week lower (for the 3rd straight week), while Small Caps (value) outperformed. In case anyone doubts that algos are running the show - just look at how Nasdaq futs were levitated desperately to get back to unchanged on the week. Additionally, 4450 was the key level for S&P... ...pinned by today's option expiration... Source: SpotGamma If one were to guess the S&P's weekly performance after everything that happened – Evergrande's missed coupon payment, Evergrande's EV unit liquidity crunch, more hawkish than expected FOMC/BOE decisions, the FDX/NKE outlook cuts signaling supply chain stress is here to stay, chaos in DC with debt ceiling doubts and complete uncertainty over the size (if any) of a new stimulus bill, crypto carnage, and weak seasonals - we suspect the vast majority of people would have predicted steep declines... as opposed to modest gains. (h/t @knowledge_vital) BTFD, right? 'Bad news is good news' right? After the Monday rout, the short squeeze was unleashed and got back to even on Thursday... running out of ammo again to maintain the lift into Friday... Source: Bloomberg Notably the rotation back to Small Caps (value) from Nasdaq (growth) stalled today at a key resistance level... Energy stocks went from worst to first this week after plunging almost 6% on Monday to ending the week over 3% higher (followed by Financials). Utes  were the biggest losers... Source: Bloomberg Evergande's dollar bonds are trading 25c on the dollar and the stocks tumbled another 7% this week (helped by a brief reprieve midweek which was reversed quite quickly) following last week's 30% plunge... Source: Bloomberg Oh, and don't forget the debt ceiling debacle looms over all of this... Source: Bloomberg Oh, and the market is now pricing in at least one rate hike by the end of 2022... Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields rose for the 5th straight week (biggest weekly spike in yields since March). Notably, the move was entirely contained in the last two days which were the biggest 2-day spike since the first week of March. Aside from 2Y, the move was surprisingly uniform with the entire curve up around 9bps... Source: Bloomberg 2Y yields rose back above FF and 5Y yields pushed up to their highest since February Source: Bloomberg 30Y Yields spiked up to post-payrolls highs... Source: Bloomberg The Dollar ended marginally higher on the week but was whipsawed around on China and Fed headlines... Source: Bloomberg Cryptos were clubbed like a baby seal this week, hit on liquidity needs around Evergrande's broad-based degrossing and on China's statement making crypto transactions "illegal". Bitcoin was actually the least bad horse in the glue factory but everything was hit... Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin has remained above $40k though for now... Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin found support at its 100DMA three times this week... Source: Bloomberg A noisy week for commodities saw Crude outperforming along with modest gains for copper while PMs were very modestly lower... Source: Bloomberg WTI rallied back above $74, its highest since mid-July... Source: Bloomberg And gold ended back below $1800... Finally, Goldman had a warning this week. Valuation is not typically the cause of a bubble bursting and stocks can stay 'expensive' for a long time. But over a long time, the returns that you might expect to get from investing in equities tend to be far smaller when you buy stocks at high valuations than when you buy them when they are 'cheap'. Oh and remember, tapering is not tightening so BTFD!? Source: Bloomberg You are here. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/24/2021 - 16:01.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 24th, 2021

Time To Say Goodbye To The Everything Bubble

Time To Say Goodbye To The Everything Bubble Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com, Will the autumn of 2021 be the end of the everything bubble? Are investment markets very soon coming to the end of market insanity? Since there is very little sanity left in markets or the in the world economy, we have now reached a point where we must accept madness as sanity, as George Bernard Shaw said: “When the world goes mad, one must accept madness as sanity; since sanity is, in the last analysis, nothing but the madness on which the whole world happens to agree.” George Bernard Shaw Investment markets today are all about instant gratification and getting rich quick. “Stocks always go up” and so does property in the everything bubble. Even the normally boring bond market has had a 40 year rise. And then we have the supercharged tech stocks, many of which have gained 1000s of percent in this century And we mustn’t forget the SPAC stocks (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) or Blank Cheque Companies where shell companies are used to acquire existing companies to inflate their share price. None of these things are new of course. During the South Sea Bubble in the 1720s for example, companies were formed and capital raised with just the purpose of “Making Money”. We mustn’t forget the cryptocurrencies which are now worth valued at $2 trillion. They were just over $1 billion 8 years ago. Is that the bubble of the century like tulip bulbs in the 1600s or is it the money of the future. Well, most readers know or can guess my opinion on this! VALUE INVESTING & WEALTH PRESERVATION IS FOR “WIMPS” In a world where everything is based on “get rich quick” neither value investing nor wealth preservation enters the equation. Why worry about preserving your wealth when you could have made 14x your money on the Nasdaq since 2009 or 5,000x your investment on Bitcoin since 2011. Calling tops is a mug’s game. Some of us who look at risk have been worried about the everything bubble economy for quite a while. To us, since the end of the Great Financial Crisis in 2009, the world economy and asset markets have been an illusion. It is as if we are watching a virtual reality game in which some people automatically increase their wealth by millions or even billions of dollars every time they pass GO. But as the rich are getting richer, the masses are just getting poorer and more indebted. Although we see the wealth that has been acquired by many as an illusion that will soon evaporate, for the ones who have benefited, this is all very real. Anyone who believes that these gains are real and sustainable will have the shock of a lifetime in coming years. As I showed in a recent article about the End of the US Empire, the wealth of the 400 richest Americans has gone from 2% of GDP to 18% in the last 40 years. This concentration of wealth is of course spectacular but also very dangerous for the world. Trees can always grow taller but they never grow to heaven! AT THE END OF AN ERA – FALLS OF 90% So as Shaw said, we are now in “the madness on which the whole world agrees”. As I have often stated, I believe that we are at the end of a very major economic cycle. Not only are markets insane, but so are deficits, debts and currency debasements. But also moral and ethical values have now vanished into thin air and been replaced by lies, deceit and the golden calf. We are now in a very critical period for the world since excesses of the magnitude we are now seeing must be corrected. Exponential moves in one direction are always corrected. And the corrections will be of a similar magnitude to the rise but happen much quicker. We are talking about falls of 90% or more in all major asset and debt markets. Nobody believes such moves are possible with central banks and governments standing by with unlimited money printing combined with new Central Bank Digital Currencies that will save the world. ILLUSIONS ARE JUST ILLUSIONS We must understand that illusions cannot rescue the world economy.  This despite whatever concoctions central banks or Schwab (World Economic Forum) and his billionaire cronies come up with. Virtual illusions in the form of fake money or empty promises can never repay debt, nor can they change the laws of nature. Clearly all these “evil forces” will use their power to orchestrate fake resets to “save the world” in an attempt to tighten their grip on the world economy and the financial system. But a heavily indebted and fake system can never be reset in an orderly manner. In my view, any artificial or fake reset will only have a very limited effect. It is just not possible to solve a debt problem with more debt whatever way the PTB (Powers That Be) try to dress it in sheep’s clothing. So an orderly reset is bound to fail very quickly. A new digital Fiat and thus fake currency will not solve the world’s debt problem. Writing off the debt is just another illusory act. If you write off the debt, the assets on the opposite side of the balance sheet will also implode in value. And since the debt is leveraging the assets, they will have a very long way to fall. This is why asset implosions of 90-100% are very likely. Few people believe this to be possible but with debt collapsing so will the bubble assets which are all inflated by worthless debt. We must remember that the big stock market crash in 1929-32 saw the Dow lose 90% of its value. It then took 25 years for the Dow to get above the 1929 high. And today 92 years after that peak, debts, deficits, and asset bubbles are far greater than at the end of the 1920s. Below are a number of graphs that all point to the everything bubble. THE BUFFETT INDICATOR So there we have it, incontrovertible proof that this is the mother of all bubbles. But as we have learnt in this century, bubbles can always grow bigger and especially if we are looking at the end of a major super cycle which could be as big (or long) as 2,000 years. Nevertheless, the evidence keeps mounting of an epic asset bubble. In addition to the charts above that point to illusions never seen before in markets, we have a number of technical indicators that all point to the end of the everything bubble. In the chart below, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) momentum indicator for example topped in 2017 and the major rise in the Dow since then has not been confirmed by the indicator. This is a very bearish sign albeit not a short term indicator. Many other technical indicators including Elliott wave or Dow Theory all point to that a top to the everything bubble is imminent. Whether that means a top next week (which is possible), or in the next few months, time will tell. Some important cycle indicators point to potential turns between now and Sep 24. SURVIVING THE EVERYTHING BUBBLE IS ALL ABOUT PROTECTING FROM RISK But what is much more important than pinpointing the exact timing of the top is to understand the risk involved. If, as we believe, we are now at the end of the everything bubble, nobody needs to time it. Investors should understand the upside might be 10% and the downside 90%+. Who is foolish enough to accept such a risk? Maybe a 10% move up but a more certain 90% fall. We are talking about a fall in real terms. If we get hyperinflation stocks and other assets can rise in nominal terms but fall in real terms when measured in stable purchasing power, like gold. Well, that question is easy to answer. The whole investment world which has been spoilt by tens of trillions of dollars of fake money to fuel the Epic Everything Bubble will expect much more of the same in coming months or years. Yes, much more money will be created but this time it will have very little effect. Instead the dollar, euro, yen etc will accelerate the falls that we have seen since 1913. They have all fallen 98-99% since then and by similar percentages since 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window. The final 1-2% fall will soon start and take most currencies to their intrinsic value of ZERO. But don’t forget that this final fall is 100% from here. Remember that measuring your assets in for example dollars is a futile exercise in self indulgence. You are just flattering your investment skills when you measure your performance in a currency that has lost 98% since 1971 and 84% since 2000. If you use the same method in coming years, your paper wealth might look ok but be worthless in real terms. Just ask anyone who has lived in a hyperinflationary economy like Yugoslavia, Argentina or Venezuela.  So what is a Sleeping Beauty investment. Not difficult to guess. It is an investment that you can forget about for 100 years and when you wake up, it will have maintained its purchasing power. GOLD If we get the expected stock market crash, it is possible that gold and the precious metals continue to correct a bit further like in 2008. As opposed to today, gold had then had a major bull run from $250 in 1999 to $1,000 in 2008. Weak gold hands then needed to get liquidity against a crashing stock market and the everything bubble. Gold has now been in consolidation for years and there are a lot fewer speculative  investors compared to 2008. Therefore I expect a much smaller and shorter correction, if any. Coming back to the Sleeping Beauty, there is one investment which you could safely put away and forget about for 100 years. It is of course physical gold, safely stored. As long as you store gold in a safe place and safe country, you know that it will maintain  its REAL value as it has for 5,000 years.  Yes, there are fluctuations, but gold’s history tells us that it is not just the only money which has survived but also the only money which has maintained real purchasing power.  Gold today at $1,750 is as UNLOVED AND UNDERVALUED as in 1971 at $35 and in 2000 at $288.  I will continue to show the chart below until that situation is rectified. This reminds me of the Roman Senator Cato during the Punic Wars (around 150 BC) who finished every speech in the senate with “Furthermore I consider that Carthage must be destroyed”. In the end Cato got his way as Carthage was destroyed. I have no doubt that gold will soon rectify the current undervaluation and reach levels that few can imagine. This is what both technicals and fundamentals are clearly indicating. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 06:30.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 23rd, 2021

Time To Buy The Dip?

S&P 500 dived, yet the slide was bought before the closing bell. Does the long lower knot mean the selling is over? It‘s too early to say as following similar momentuous days, it takes 1-3 days for the dust to clear usually. The selling pressure might not be over, and the question is how far […] S&P 500 dived, yet the slide was bought before the closing bell. Does the long lower knot mean the selling is over? It‘s too early to say as following similar momentuous days, it takes 1-3 days for the dust to clear usually. The selling pressure might not be over, and the question is how far will it reach on a fresh attempt – 4,350s look attainable. .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more There, the fate of this correction would be decided, but we‘re on the verge of the historically more volatile part of Sep, and tomorrow‘s FOMC would up the ante. The dollar though was unable to rally, to keep intraday gains – on one hand a certain show of strength given the retreat in Treasury yields, on the other hand, proof of stiff headwinds as the world reserve currency isn‘t in a bull market. I‘m leaning towards the latter explanation. As stocks rebound in what may still turn out to be a dead cat bounce, commodities got clobbered too – just as cryptos did. Gold attracted safe haven demand as money flew to Treasuries as well. Miners with silver holding ground, are a good sign for the sector – the overwhelmingly negative sentiment looks getting long in the tooth. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Half full body, half lower knot – such are the trickiest of candles. The fate of the downswing is being decided, and the bears need to break below 4,350s to regain initiative. I wouldn‘t be surprised to see stocks diverge from credit markets as buy the dip mentality hasn‘t spoken its last word. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds haven‘t made a strong enough comeback – their behavior through Wednesday, is of key importance now. Gold, Silver and Miners Gold has a chance to prove its local bottom is in, even if miners aren‘t yet confirming. Should the rebound in stocks hold, silver alongside commodities stands to benefit the most. Crude Oil Oil stocks and oil dived in sympathy, but black gold looks quite resilient to wild price swings. The bounce appears to have paused for the day. Copper Copper doesn‘t look as stabilized as oil does at the moment – prices haven‘t yet meaningfully decelerated, and the buying power isn‘t convincing. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum are joining the selloff, and the golden cross is in danger of being invalidated fast. Breaking below the early Aug lows would mean a fresh downleg is here. Let‘s see first the degree of liquidity returning to cryptos. Summary Is the selling over, is it not? Still inconclusive, but time for the bears is running short. The selling doesn‘t appear to be over, but I‘m not calling for a break of yesterday‘s lows before tomorrow is over. The degree of commodities outperformance today will be insightful as to the overall rebound strength. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals. Thank you, Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals Oil Trading Signals Copper Trading Signals Bitcoin Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.co mk@monicakingsley.co All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Updated on Sep 22, 2021, 10:09 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 23rd, 2021

Rescued by the Fed Again?

S&P 500 recovered only to dive again – carving out a base? The bulls are attempting to, but neither value, nor tech, nor the credit markets are convincing. The dust is settling though, and the bears are equally in need of a fresh reason to sell – the intraday tug of war is entirely reasonable […] S&P 500 recovered only to dive again – carving out a base? The bulls are attempting to, but neither value, nor tech, nor the credit markets are convincing. The dust is settling though, and the bears are equally in need of a fresh reason to sell – the intraday tug of war is entirely reasonable as Evergrande failed to spook the markets more. Just wait for what happens when the markets come face to face with another unacknowledged event of this magnitude. In our era, it‘s about the contagion effect, manic-depressive market psychology, and uncertainty of the impact. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get Our Activist Investing Case Study! Get the entire 10-part series on our in-depth study on activist investing in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or print it out to read anywhere! Sign up below! (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more It‘s not only about China real estate cooling down, spilling over to Hong Kong. Wtll the House approval on the bill to suspend fresh borrowing obstacles and avoid a partial shutdown do? What would the Senate say – and then everyone as the tax tsunami keeps approaching? Global liquidity isn‘t rising after all either. Fed taper is a side show, but still one that too many are glued to. The dollar would suffer if it doesn‘t materialize later today – and it won‘t be announced, which would make precious metals rejoice. Back to stocks, these are also likely to welcome no taper. The Fed has been already tightening (which means these days it was decreasing the pace of expansion) through the back door, bringing down inflation expectations in spite of the real world input costs, shipping rates and frail supply chains challenges on top of the job market issues. Transitory inflation is still the mainstream thesis – the shift to real assets will become more accentuated once the realization of a higher and entrenched inflation arrives. And it‘s not about real estate and owners‘ equivalent rent either. Commodities did welcome yesterday‘s reprieve, and Treasury yields are unlikely to clobber them the way perceived systemic risks could (did). In a decelerating real economy faced with numerous deflationary pressures, the slow and steady rising yields phase, is deferred for now. And when these do rise again, it may or may not be about returning economic growth, but forced by the systemic realities. Remember that rates are very low by historic comparisons, and the resilence to absorb a modest rise (think 10-year more than a bit above 2%) won‘t be there without consequences. Cashing in on the S&P 500 short profits yesterday, was reasonable from the total portfolio risk point of view (did I say a fresh high was reached?). Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook Daily hesitation followed by more downside, but volume is decreasing – stocks look readying an upswing attempt. Credit Markets High yield corporate bonds merely kept opening gains – there is still hesitation, and the window of opportunity for the bulls is narrow. Gold, Silver and Miners Positive price action of gold, joined by silver – the waiting miners reveal that a little consolidation is likely before the Fed speaks. Crude Oil Oil stocks show that the appetite for oil might be returning, and that‘s confirmed by the volume examination. Commodities such as oil and copper stand to benefit from calming the Evergrande and central bank jitters. Copper Copper gave up opening losses only to rebound before the closing bell. Volume could have been larger, but the beaten down red metal can keep rebounding at its own pace – the smaller volume is an indication it won‘t be a one-way path. Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum haven‘t really recovered from the selloff, and the bears are holding the upper hand now. Summary My yesterday‘s question „Is the selling over, is it not?“ has the same answer „Still inconclusive, but time for the bears is running short.“ It looks like the markets are positioning for a return to risk-on based on today‘s FOMC, which is what quite a few would like to take as an opportunity to sell into strength. The point is the Fed won‘t surprise today, and the price gyrations are likely to continue, albeit at a lesser magnitude. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals. Thank you, Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals Oil Trading Signals Copper Trading Signals Bitcoin Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.co mk@monicakingsley.co All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Updated on Sep 22, 2021, 9:27 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 22nd, 2021

How Do You Get Inflation Under Control?

Raise the dollar, drop the metals. Under most possible scenarios, things don’t look good for gold, silver, and mining stocks – for the medium-term. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The USD Index And U.S. Treasury Yields With the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields the main fundamental drivers of the PMs’ performance, […] Raise the dollar, drop the metals. Under most possible scenarios, things don’t look good for gold, silver, and mining stocks – for the medium-term. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The USD Index And U.S. Treasury Yields With the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields the main fundamental drivers of the PMs’ performance, some confusion has arisen due to their parallel and divergent moves. For example, sometimes the USD Index rises while U.S. Treasury yields fall, or vice-versa, and sometimes the pair move higher/lower in unison. However, it’s important to remember that different economic environments have different impacts on the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields. To explain, the USD Index benefits from both the safe-haven bid (stock market volatility) and economic outperformance relative to its FX peers. Conversely, U.S. Treasury yields only benefit from the latter. Thus, when economic risks intensify (like what we witnessed with Evergrande on Sep. 20), the USD Index often rallies while U.S. Treasury yields often fall. Thus, the economic climate is often the fundamental determinant of the pairs’ future paths. For context, I wrote on Apr.16: The PMs suffer during three of four possible scenarios: When the bond market and the stock market price in risk, it’s bearish for the PMs When the bond market and the stock market don’t price in risk, it’s bearish for the PMs When the bond market doesn’t price in risk, but the stock market does, it’s bearish for the PMs When the bond market prices in risk and the stock market doesn’t, it’s bullish for the PMs Regarding scenario #1, when the bond market and the stock market price in risk (economic stress), the USD Index often rallies and its strong negative correlation with the PMs upends their performance. Regarding scenario #2, when the bond market and the stock market don’t price in risk, U.S. economic strength supports a stronger U.S. dollar and rising U.S, Treasury yields reduce the fundamental attractiveness of gold. For context, the PMs are non-yielding assets, and when interest rates rise, bonds become more attractive relative to gold (for some investors). Regarding scenario #3, when the stock market suffers and U.S. Treasury yields are indifferent, the usual uptick in the USD Index is a bearish development for the PMs (for the same reasons outlined in scenario #1). Regarding scenario #4, when the bond market prices in risk (lower yields) and the stock market doesn’t, inflation-adjusted (real) interest rates often decline, and risk-on sentiment can hurt the USD Index. As a result, the cocktail often uplifts the PMs due to lower real interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar. The bottom line? The USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields can move in the same direction or forge different paths. However, while a stock market crash is likely the most bearish fundamental outcome that could confront the PMs, scenario #2 is next in line. While it may (or may not) seem counterintuitive, a strong U.S. economy is bearish for the PMs. When U.S. economic strength provides a fundamental thesis for both the USD Index and U.S. Treasury yields to rise (along with real interest rates), the double-edged sword often leaves gold and silver with deep lacerations. The Fed’s Monetary Policy Decision In the meantime, though, with investors eagerly awaiting the Fed’s monetary policy decision today, QE is already dying a slow death. Case in point: not only has the USD Index recaptured 93 and surged above the neckline of its inverse (bullish) head & shoulders pattern, but the greenback’s fundamentals remain robust. With 78 counterparties draining more than $1.240 trillion out of the U.S. financial system on Sep. 21, the Fed’s daily reverse repurchase agreements hit another all-time high. Please see below: Source: New York Fed To explain, a reverse repurchase agreement (repo) occurs when an institution offloads cash to the Fed in exchange for a Treasury security (on an overnight or short-term basis). And with U.S. financial institutions currently flooded with excess liquidity, they’re shipping cash to the Fed at an alarming rate. And while I’ve been warning for months that the activity is the fundamental equivalent of a taper  – due to the lower supply of U.S. dollars (which is bullish for the USD Index) – the psychological effect is not the same. However, as we await a formal taper announcement from the Fed, the U.S. dollar’s fundamental foundation remains quite strong. Furthermore, with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) publishing a rather cryptic article on Sep. 10 titled “Fed Officials Prepare for November Reduction in Bond Buying,” messaging from the central bank’s unofficial mouthpiece implies that something is brewing. And while the Delta variant and Evergrande provide the Fed with an excuse to elongate its taper timeline, surging inflation has the Fed increasingly handcuffed. The Pace Of Tapering As a result, Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle expects the Fed to provide “advance notice” today and set the stage for an official taper announcement in November. He wrote: “While the start date now appears set, the pace of tapering is an open question. Our standing forecast is that the FOMC will taper at a pace of $15bn per meeting, split between $10bn in UST and $5bn in MBS, ending in September 2022. But a number of FOMC participants have called instead for a faster pace that would end by mid-2022, and we now see $15bn per meeting vs. $15bn per month as a close call.” On top of that, with stagflation bubbling beneath the surface, another hawkish shift could materialize. To explain, I wrote on Jun. 17: On Apr. 30, I warned that Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), was materially behind the inflation curve. I wrote: With Powell changing his tune from not seeing any “unwelcome” inflation on Jan. 14 to “we are likely to see upward pressure on prices, but [it] will be temporary” on Apr. 28, can you guess where this story is headed next? And with the Fed Chair revealing on Jun. 16 what many of us already knew, he conceded: Source: CNBC Moreover, while Powell added that “our expectation is these high inflation readings now will abate,” he also conceded that “you can think of this meeting that we had as the ‘talking about talking about’ [tapering] meeting, if you’d like.” However, because actions speak louder than words, notice the monumental shift below? Source: U.S. Fed To explain, if you analyze the red box, you can see that the Fed increased its 2021 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index projection from a 2.4% year-over-year (YoY) rise to a  3.4% YoY rise. But even more revealing, the original projection was made only three months ago. Thus, the about face screams of inflationary anxiety. Fall In The GDXJ ETF What’s more, I highlighted on Aug. 5 that the hawkish upward revision increased investors’ fears of a faster rate-hike cycle and contributed to the rise in the USD Index and the fall in the GDXJ ETF (our short position). Please see below: And why is all of this so important? Well, with Mericle expecting the Fed to increase its 2021 PCE Index projection from 3.4% to 4.3% today (the red box below), if the Fed’s message shifts from we’re adamant that inflation is “transitory” to “suddenly, we’re not so sure,” a re-enactment of the June FOMC meeting could uplift the USD Index and upend the PMs once again. For context, the FOMC’s July meeting did not include a summary of its economic projections and today’s ‘dot plot’ will provide the most important clues. Please see below: Finally, with CNBC proclaiming on Sep. 21 that the Fed is “widely expected to indicate it is getting ready to announce it will start paring back its $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,” even the financial media expects some form of “advance notice.” Source: CNBC The bottom line? While the Delta variant and Evergrande have provided the Fed with dovish cover, neither addresses the underlying problem. With inflation surging and the Fed’s 2% annual target looking more and more like wishful thinking, reducing its bond-buying program, increasing the value of the U.S. dollar, and decreasing commodity prices is the only way to get inflation under control. In absence, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will likely continue its upward momentum and the cost-push inflationary spiral will likely continue as well. In conclusion, the gold miners underperformed gold once again on Sep. 21 and the relative weakness is profoundly bearish. Moreover, while the USD Index was roughly flat, Treasury yields rallied across the curve. And while Powell will do his best to thread the dovish needle today, he’s stuck between a rock and a hard place: if he talks down the U.S. dollar (like he normally does), commodity prices will likely rise, and inflation will likely remain elevated. If he acknowledges reality and prioritizes controlling inflation, the U.S. dollar will likely surge, and the general stock market should suffer. As a result, with the conundrum poised to come to a head over the next few months (maybe even today), the PMs are caught in the crossfire and lower lows will likely materialize over the medium term. Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chief Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Updated on Sep 22, 2021, 10:33 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 22nd, 2021

Regime Change

Regime Change Excerpted from a whitepaper by One River Asset Management's Chase Muller and Patrick Kazley titled: Regime Change Resilience - Rebooting Risk Mitigation with Structural Correlation. Regime Change After decades, you recognize patterns. The biggest winners and losers in each cycle tend to be younger. Unburdened by the past, open to change, they often lack fear. Older folks who remain standing are either lucky or attained some wisdom, acquired at great cost. Pain. The most honest of those live in the fear that they have gotten lucky, and it will run out. Having recognized the impossibility of knowing the future, and knowing each cycle contains some new surprise, they surround themselves with younger people, blending the strengths of young and old. Beginning in 1962 when the daily bond time series is available and going through today, the correlation between stocks and bonds is slightly negative (-0.1 correlation). The t-statistic, or level of reliability of that full sample observation, is highly statistically significant with a -7 t-stat, where a t-statistic of approximately +/- 2.5 or larger is typically considered statistically significant. The t-stat being much larger than that makes it very unlikely to be a spurious finding over the sample period. However, if you divide this timeframe into different periods, the apparent consistency and reliability of this observation changes drastically. From 1962-1981, when US interest rates went from historic norms to record highs, the correlation between bonds and equities inverts and is positive (+0.2 correlation). Thus, in Oct 1981 when interest rates reached their secular peak, if you had used a backward-looking risk model to estimate cross-asset correlations or build a risk mitigation portfolio, you would have assumed equities and bonds were positively correlated, and indeed the significance of that relationship would have been entirely supported through a statistical lens (+13 t-stat). Naturally, you might be tempted to look at these results and conclude the relationship between equities and fixed income is indeed reliable, as long as you control for the rising or falling rate environment. However, the relationship and changes to it are not as easily predicted by a single factor such as the general drift of interest rates over time. To illustrate this, from Oct 1981 – Oct 1998 when rates collapsed from highs, the relationship between stocks and bonds was also positive with a higher level of consistency (+0.2 correlation, with a +16 t-stat). Lastly, the 1998-present period resulted in a -0.4 correlation between stocks and bonds, with a highly significant -30 t-stat. What we have not explored here, but is also worth highlighting at least in passing, is the potentially undesirable conditional correlation that can accompany transitory relationships. Even an assumed relationship that holds on average over longer time frames can break down in extreme risk-off events and lead to deeper drawdowns and more short-term pain. March 2020 was a such a case of risk assets concurrently declining and transitory correlations breaking down when they were needed most. Using backward-looking returns to justify cross-asset correlation expectations might yield convincing statistics, but ultimately this approach has not proven to be a fully reliable method of sourcing correlation estimates essential for proper risk mitigation and diversification. Indeed, without properly matching a statistical observation with an intuitive linkage, you run the risk of relying on ephemeral relationships for stability. This raises a question: If forward-looking allocation models based on historical returns are only valid in a world of relatively static cross-asset relationships, how does an allocator find reliable sources of diversification in the face of regime changes? Tyler Durden Sun, 09/26/2021 - 13:00.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nyt10 hr. 15 min. ago

30 Facts You Need To Know: A COVID Cribsheet

30 Facts You Need To Know: A COVID Cribsheet Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org, You asked for it, so we made it. A collection of all the arguments you’ll ever need. We get a lot of e-mails and private messages along these lines “do you have a source for X?” or “can you point me to mask studies?” or “I know I saw a graph for mortality, but I can’t find it anymore”. And we understand, it’s been a long 18 months, and there are so many statistics and numbers to try and keep straight in your head. So, to deal with all these requests, we decided to make a bullet-pointed and sourced list for all the key points. A one-stop-shop. Here are key facts and sources about the alleged “pandemic”, that will help you get a grasp on what has happened to the world since January 2020, and help you enlighten any of your friends who might be still trapped in the New Normal fog: “Covid deaths” – Lockdowns – PCR Tests – “asymptomatic infection” – Ventilators – Masks – Vaccines – Deception & Foreknowledge *  *  * PART I: “COVID DEATHS” & MORTALITY 1. The survival rate of “Covid” is over 99%. Government medical experts went out of their way to underline, from the beginning of the pandemic, that the vast majority of the population are not in any danger from Covid. Almost all studies on the infection-fatality ratio (IFR) of Covid have returned results between 0.04% and 0.5%. Meaning Covid’s survival rate is at least 99.5%. * 2. There has been NO unusual excess mortality. The press has called 2020 the UK’s “deadliest year since world war two”, but this is misleading because it ignores the massive increase in the population since that time. A more reasonable statistical measure of mortality is Age-Standardised Mortality Rate (ASMR): By this measure, 2020 isn’t even the worst year for mortality since 2000, In fact since 1943 only 9 years have been better than 2020. Similarly, in the US the ASMR for 2020 is only at 2004 levels: For a detailed breakdown of how Covid affected mortality across Western Europe and the US click here. What increases in mortality we have seen could be attributable to non-Covid causes [facts 7, 9 & 19]. * 3. “Covid death” counts are artificially inflated. Countries around the globe have been defining a “Covid death” as a “death by any cause within 28/30/60 days of a positive test”. Healthcare officials from Italy, Germany, the UK, US, Northern Ireland and others have all admitted to this practice: Removing any distinction between dying of Covid, and dying of something else after testing positive for Covid will naturally lead to over-counting of “Covid deaths”. British pathologist Dr John Lee was warning of this “substantial over-estimate” as early as last spring. Other mainstream sources have reported it, too. Considering the huge percentage of “asymptomatic” Covid infections [14], the well-known prevalence of serious comorbidities [fact 4] and the potential for false-positive tests [fact 18], this renders the Covid death numbers an extremely unreliable statistic. * 4. The vast majority of covid deaths have serious comorbidities. In March 2020, the Italian government published statistics showing 99.2% of their “Covid deaths” had at least one serious comorbidity. These included cancer, heart disease, dementia, Alzheimer’s, kidney failure and diabetes (among others). Over 50% of them had three or more serious pre-existing conditions. This pattern has held up in all other countries over the course of the “pandemic”. An October 2020 FOIA request to the UK’s ONS revealed less than 10% of the official “Covid death” count at that time had Covid as the sole cause of death. * 5. Average age of “Covid death” is greater than the average life expectancy. The average age of a “Covid death” in the UK is 82.5 years. In Italy it’s 86. Germany, 83. Switzerland, 86. Canada, 86. The US, 78, Australia, 82. In almost all cases the median age of a “Covid death” is higher than the national life expectancy. As such, for most of the world, the “pandemic” has had little-to-no impact on life expectancy. Contrast this with the Spanish flu, which saw a 28% drop in life expectancy in the US in just over a year. [source] * 6. Covid mortality exactly mirrors the natural mortality curve. Statistical studies from the UK and India have shown that the curve for “Covid death” follows the curve for expected mortality almost exactly: The risk of death “from Covid” follows, almost exactly, your background risk of death in general. The small increase for some of the older age groups can be accounted for by other factors.[facts 7, 9 & 19] * 7. There has been a massive increase in the use of “unlawful” DNRs. Watchdogs and government agencies have reported huge increases in the use of Do Not Resuscitate Orders (DNRs) over the last twenty months. In the US, hospitals considered “universal DNRs” for any patient who tested positive for Covid, and whistleblowing nurses have admitted the DNR system was abused in New York. In the UK there was an “unprecdented” rise in “illegal” DNRs for disabled people, GP surgeries sent out letters to non-terminal patients recommending they sign DNR orders, whilst other doctors signed “blanket DNRs” for entire nursing homes. A study done by Sheffield Univerisity found over one-third of all “suspected” Covid patients had a DNR attached to their file within 24 hours of hospital admission. Blanket use of coerced or illegal DNR orders could account for any increases in mortality in 2020/21.[Facts 2 & 6] *  *  * PART II: LOCKDOWNS 8. Lockdowns do not prevent the spread of disease. There is little to no evidence lockdowns have any impact on limiting “Covid deaths”. If you compare regions that locked down to regions that did not, you can see no pattern at all. “Covid deaths” in Florida (no lockdown) vs California (lockdown) “Covid deaths” in Sweden (no lockdown) vs UK (lockdown) * 9. Lockdowns kill people. There is strong evidence that lockdowns – through social, economic and other public health damage – are deadlier than the “virus”. Dr David Nabarro, World Health Organization special envoy for Covid-19 described lockdowns as a “global catastrophe” in October 2020: We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of the virus[…] it seems we may have a doubling of world poverty by next year. We may well have at least a doubling of child malnutrition […] This is a terrible, ghastly global catastrophe.” A UN report from April 2020 warned of 100,000s of children being killed by the economic impact of lockdowns, while tens of millions more face possible poverty and famine. Unemployment, poverty, suicide, alcoholism, drug use and other social/mental health crises are spiking all over the world. While missed and delayed surgeries and screenings are going to see increased mortality from heart disease, cancer et al. in the near future. The impact of lockdown would account for the small increases in excess mortality [Facts 2 & 6] * 10. Hospitals were never unusually over-burdened. the main argument used to defend lockdowns is that “flattening the curve” would prevent a rapid influx of cases and protect healthcare systems from collapse. But most healthcare systems were never close to collapse at all. In March 2020 it was reported that hospitals in Spain and Italy were over-flowing with patients, but this happens every flu season. In 2017 Spanish hospitals were at 200% capacity, and 2015 saw patients sleeping in corridors. A paper JAMA paper from March 2020 found that Italian hospitals “typically run at 85-90% capacity in the winter months”. In the UK, the NHS is regularly stretched to breaking point over the winter. As part of their Covid policy, the NHS announced in Spring of 2020 that they would be “re-organizing hospital capacity in new ways to treat Covid and non-Covid patients separately” and that “as result hospitals will experience capacity pressures at lower overall occupancy rates than would previously have been the case.” This means they removed thousands of beds. During an alleged deadly pandemic, they reduced the maximum occupancy of hospitals. Despite this, the NHS never felt pressure beyond your typical flu season, and at times actually had 4x more empty beds than normal. In both the UK and US millions were spent on temporary emergency hospitals that were never used. *  *  * PART III: PCR TESTS 11. PCR tests were not designed to diagnose illness. The Reverse-Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) test is described in the media as the “gold standard” for Covid diagnosis. But the Nobel Prize-winning inventor of the process never intended it to be used as a diagnostic tool, and said so publicly: PCR is just a process that allows you to make a whole lot of something out of something. It doesn’t tell you that you are sick, or that the thing that you ended up with was going to hurt you or anything like that.” * 12. PCR Tests have a history of being inaccurate and unreliable. The “gold standard” PCR tests for Covid are known to produce a lot of false-positive results, by reacting to DNA material that is not specific to Sars-Cov-2. A Chinese study found the same patient could get two different results from the same test on the same day. In Germany, tests are known to have reacted to common cold viruses. A 2006 study found PCR tests for one virus responded to other viruses too. In 2007, a reliance on PCR tests resulted in an “outbreak” of Whooping Cough that never actually existed. Some tests in the US even reacted to the negative control sample. The late President of Tanzania, John Magufuli, submitted samples goat, pawpaw and motor oil for PCR testing, all came back positive for the virus. As early as February of 2020 experts were admitting the test was unreliable. Dr Wang Cheng, president of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences told Chinese state television “The accuracy of the tests is only 30-50%”. The Australian government’s own website claimed “There is limited evidence available to assess the accuracy and clinical utility of available COVID-19 tests.” And a Portuguese court ruled that PCR tests were “unreliable” and should not be used for diagnosis. You can read detailed breakdowns of the failings of PCR tests here, here and here. * 13. The CT values of the PCR tests are too high. PCR tests are run in cycles, the number of cycles you use to get your result is known as your “cycle threshold” or CT value. Kary Mullis said: “If you have to go more than 40 cycles[…]there is something seriously wrong with your PCR.” The MIQE PCR guidelines agree, stating: “[CT] values higher than 40 are suspect because of the implied low efficiency and generally should not be reported,” Dr Fauci himself even admitted anything over 35 cycles is almost never culturable. Dr Juliet Morrison, virologist at the University of California, Riverside, told the New York Times: Any test with a cycle threshold above 35 is too sensitive…I’m shocked that people would think that 40 [cycles] could represent a positive…A more reasonable cutoff would be 30 to 35″. In the same article Dr Michael Mina, of the Harvard School of Public Health, said the limit should be 30, and the author goes on to point out that reducing the CT from 40 to 30 would have reduced “covid cases” in some states by as much as 90%. The CDC’s own data suggests no sample over 33 cycles could be cultured, and Germany’s Robert Koch Institute says nothing over 30 cycles is likely to be infectious. Despite this, it is known almost all the labs in the US are running their tests at least 37 cycles and sometimes as high as 45. The NHS “standard operating procedure” for PCR tests rules set the limit at 40 cycles. Based on what we know about the CT values, the majority of PCR test results are at best questionable. * 14. The World Health Organization (Twice) Admitted PCR tests produced false positives. In December 2020 WHO put out a briefing memo on the PCR process instructing labs to be wary of high CT values causing false positive results: when specimens return a high Ct value, it means that many cycles were required to detect virus. In some circumstances, the distinction between background noise and actual presence of the target virus is difficult to ascertain. Then, in January 2021, the WHO released another memo, this time warning that “asymptomatic” positive PCR tests should be re-tested because they might be false positives: Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology. * 15. The scientific basis for Covid tests is questionable. The genome of the Sars-Cov-2 virus was supposedly sequenced by Chinese scientists in December 2019, then published on January 10th 2020. Less than two weeks later, German virologists (Christian Drosten et al.) had allegedly used the genome to create assays for PCR tests. They wrote a paper, Detection of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by real-time RT-PCR, which was submitted for publication on January 21st 2020, and then accepted on January 22nd. Meaning the paper was allegedly “peer-reviewed” in less than 24 hours. A process that typically takes weeks. Since then, a consortium of over forty life scientists has petitioned for the withdrawal of the paper, writing a lengthy report detailing 10 major errors in the paper’s methodology. They have also requested the release of the journal’s peer-review report, to prove the paper really did pass through the peer-review process. The journal has yet to comply. The Corman-Drosten assays are the root of every Covid PCR test in the world. If the paper is questionable, every PCR test is also questionable. *  *  * PART IV: “ASYMPTOMATIC INFECTION” 16. The majority of Covid infections are “asymptomatic”. From as early as March 2020, studies done in Italy were suggesting 50-75% of positive Covid tests had no symptoms. Another UK study from August 2020 found as much as 86% of “Covid patients” experienced no viral symptoms at all. It is literally impossible to tell the difference between an “asymptomatic case” and a false-positive test result. * 17. There is very little evidence supporting the alleged danger of “asymptomatic transmission”. In June 2020, Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said: From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,” A meta-analysis of Covid studies, published by Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) in December 2020, found that asymptomatic carriers had a less than 1% chance of infecting people within their household. Another study, done on influenza in 2009, found: …limited evidence to suggest the importance of [asymptomatic] transmission. The role of asymptomatic or presymptomatic influenza-infected individuals in disease transmission may have been overestimated…” Given the known flaws of the PCR tests, many “asymptomatic cases” may be false positives.[fact 14] *  *  * PART V: VENTILATORS 18. Ventilation is NOT a treatment for respiratory viruses. Mechanical ventilation is not, and never has been, recommended treatment for respiratory infection of any kind. In the early days of the pandemic, many doctors came forward questioning the use of ventilators to treat “Covid”. Writing in The Spectator, Dr Matt Strauss stated: Ventilators do not cure any disease. They can fill your lungs with air when you find yourself unable to do so yourself. They are associated with lung diseases in the public’s consciousness, but this is not in fact their most common or most appropriate application. German Pulmonologist Dr Thomas Voshaar, chairman of Association of Pneumatological Clinics said: When we read the first studies and reports from China and Italy, we immediately asked ourselves why intubation was so common there. This contradicted our clinical experience with viral pneumonia. Despite this, the WHO, CDC, ECDC and NHS all “recommended” Covid patients be ventilated instead of using non-invasive methods. This was not a medical policy designed to best treat the patients, but rather to reduce the hypothetical spread of Covid by preventing patients from exhaling aerosol droplets. * 19. Ventilators killed people. Putting someone who is suffering from influenza, pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or any other condition which restricts breathing or affects the lungs, will not alleviate any of those symptoms. In fact, it will almost certainly make it worse, and will kill many of them. Intubation tubes are a source of potential a infection known as “ventilator-associated pneumonia”, which studies show affects up to 28% of all people put on ventilators, and kills 20-55% of those infected. Mechanical ventilation is also damaging to the physical structure of the lungs, resulting in “ventilator-induced lung injury”, which can dramatically impact quality of life, and even result in death. Experts estimate 40-50% of ventilated patients die, regardless of their disease. Around the world, between 66 and 86% of all “Covid patients” put on ventilators died. According to the “undercover nurse”, ventilators were being used so improperly in New York, they were destroying patients’ lungs: This policy was negligence at best, and potentially deliberate murder at worst. This misuse of ventilators could account for any increase in mortality in 2020/21 [Facts 2 & 6] *  *  * PART VI: MASKS 20. Masks don’t work. At least a dozen scientific studies have shown that masks do nothing to stop the spread of respiratory viruses. One meta-analysis published by the CDC in May 2020 found “no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks”. Another study with over 8000 subjects found masks “did not seem to be effective against laboratory-confirmed viral respiratory infections nor against clinical respiratory infection.” There are literally too many to quote them all, but you can read them: [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] Or read a summary by SPR here. While some studies have been done claiming to show mask do work for Covid, they are all seriously flawed. One relied on self-reported surveys as data. Another was so badly designed a panel of experts demand it be withdrawn. A third was withdrawn after its predictions proved entirely incorrect. The WHO commissioned their own meta-analysis in the Lancet, but that study looked only at N95 masks and only in hospitals. [For full run down on the bad data in this study click here.] Aside from scientific evidence, there’s plenty of real-world evidence that masks do nothing to halt the spread of disease. For example, North Dakota and South Dakota had near-identical case figures, despite one having a mask-mandate and the other not: In Kansas, counties without mask mandates actually had fewer Covid “cases” than counties with mask mandates. And despite masks being very common in Japan, they had their worst flu outbreak in decades in 2019. * 21. Masks are bad for your health. Wearing a mask for long periods, wearing the same mask more than once, and other aspects of cloth masks can be bad for your health. A long study on the detrimental effects of mask-wearing was recently published by the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Dr. James Meehan reported in August 2020 he was seeing increases in bacterial pneumonia, fungal infections, facial rashes . Masks are also known to contain plastic microfibers, which damage the lungs when inhaled and may be potentially carcinogenic. Childen wearing masks encourages mouth-breathing, which results in facial deformities. People around the world have passed out due to CO2 poisoning while wearing their masks, and some children in China even suffered sudden cardiac arrest. * 22. Masks are bad for the planet. Millions upon millions of disposable masks have been used per month for over a year. A report from the UN found the Covid19 pandemic will likely result in plastic waste more than doubling in the next few years., and the vast majority of that is face masks. The report goes on to warn these masks (and other medical waste) will clog sewage and irrigation systems, which will have knock on effects on public health, irrigation and agriculture. A study from the University of Swansea found “heavy metals and plastic fibres were released when throw-away masks were submerged in water.” These materials are toxic to both people and wildlife. *  *  * PART VII: VACCINES 23. Covid “vaccines” are totally unprecedented. Before 2020 no successful vaccine against a human coronavirus had ever been developed. Since then we have allegedly made 20 of them in 18 months. Scientists have been trying to develop a SARS and MERS vaccine for years with little success. Some of the failed SARS vaccines actually caused hypersensitivity to the SARS virus. Meaning that vaccinated mice could potentially get the disease more severely than unvaccinated mice. Another attempt caused liver damage in ferrets. While traditional vaccines work by exposing the body to a weakened strain of the microorganism responsible for causing the disease, these new Covid vaccines are mRNA vaccines. mRNA (messenger ribonucleic acid) vaccines theoretically work by injecting viral mRNA into the body, where it replicates inside your cells and encourages your body to recognise, and make antigens for, the “spike proteins” of the virus. They have been the subject of research since the 1990s, but before 2020 no mRNA vaccine was ever approved for use. * 24. Vaccines do not confer immunity or prevent transmission. It is readily admitted that Covid “vaccines” do not confer immunity from infection and do not prevent you from passing the disease onto others. Indeed, an article in the British Medical Journal highlighted that the vaccine studies were not designed to even try and assess if the “vaccines” limited transmission. The vaccine manufacturers themselves, upon releasing the untested mRNA gene therapies, were quite clear their product’s “efficacy” was based on “reducing the severity of symptoms”. * 25. The vaccines were rushed and have unknown longterm effects. Vaccine development is a slow, laborious process. Usually, from development through testing and finally being approved for public use takes many years. The various vaccines for Covid were all developed and approved in less than a year. Obviously there can be no long-term safety data on chemicals which are less than a year old. Pfizer even admit this is true in the leaked supply contract between the pharmaceutical giant, and the government of Albania: the long-term effects and efficacy of the Vaccine are not currently known and that there may be adverse effects of the Vaccine that are not currently known Further, none of the vaccines have been subject to proper trials. Many of them skipped early-stage trials entirely, and the late-stage human trials have either not been peer-reviewed, have not released their data, will not finish until 2023 or were abandoned after “severe adverse effects”. * 26. Vaccine manufacturers have been granted legal indemnity should they cause harm. The USA’s Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act (PREP) grants immunity until at least 2024. The EU’s product licensing law does the same, and there are reports of confidential liability clauses in the contracts the EU signed with vaccine manufacturers. The UK went even further, granting permanent legal indemnity to the government, and any employees thereof, for any harm done when a patient is being treated for Covid19 or “suspected Covid19”. Again, the leaked Albanian contract suggests that Pfizer, at least, made this indemnity a standard demand of supplying Covid vaccines: Purchaser hereby agrees to indemnify, defend and hold harmless Pfizer […] from and against any and all suits, claims, actions, demands, losses, damages, liabilities, settlements, penalties, fines, costs and expenses *  *  * PART VIII: DECEPTION & FOREKNOWLEDGE 27. The EU was preparing “vaccine passports” at least a YEAR before the pandemic began. Proposed COVID countermeasures, presented to the public as improvised emergency measures, have existed since before the emergence of the disease. Two EU documents published in 2018, the “2018 State of Vaccine Confidence” and a technical report titled “Designing and implementing an immunisation information system” discussed the plausibility of an EU-wide vaccination monitoring system. These documents were combined into the 2019 “Vaccination Roadmap”, which (among other things) established a “feasibility study” on vaccine passports to begin in 2019 and finish in 2021: This report’s final conclusions were released to the public in September 2019, just a month before Event 201 (below). * 28. A “training exercise” predicted the pandemic just weeks before it started. In October 2019 the World Economic Forum and Johns Hopkins University held Event 201. This was a training exercise based on a zoonotic coronavirus starting a worldwide pandemic. The exercise was sponsored by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and GAVI the vaccine alliance. The exercise published its findings and recommendations in November 2019 as a “call to action”. One month later, China recorded their first case of “Covid”. * 29. Since the beginning of 2020, the Flu has “disappeared”. In the United States, since Februart 2020, influenza cases have allegedly dropped by over 98%. It’s not just the US either, globally flu has apparently almost completely disappeared. Meanwhile, a new disease called “Covid”, which has identical symptoms and a similar mortality rate to influenza, is supposedly sweeping the globe. * 30. The elite have made fortunes during the pandemic. Since the beginning of lockdown the wealthiest people have become significantly wealthier. Forbes reported that 40 new billionaires have been created “fighting the coronavirus”, with 9 of them being vaccine manufacturers. Business Insider reported that “billionaires saw their net worth increase by half a trillion dollars” by October 2020. Clearly that number will be even bigger by now. *  *  * These are the vital facts of the pandemic, presented here as a resource to help formulate and support your arguments with friends or strangers. Thanks to all the researchers who have collated and collected this information over the last twenty months, especially Swiss Policy Research. Tyler Durden Sun, 09/26/2021 - 07:00.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nyt17 hr. 14 min. ago

Warren Buffett used the "Mona Lisa" to explain why art is a terrible investment - but then compared Berkshire Hathaway to an art museum

"We like to think we're the Metropolitan Museum of businesses," Buffett said in 2000, comparing the companies he buys to works of art. Warren Buffett. Getty Images / Jemal Countess Warren Buffett dismissed art as a bad investment nearly 60 years ago. France could have made $1 quadrillion if it had invested instead of buying the Mona Lisa, he said. Buffett described investing, valuing and building businesses, and Berkshire Hathaway as art. See more stories on Insider's business page. Warren Buffett invoked one of the most famous paintings in history to explain why art is a poor investment.The billionaire investor tackled the topic in his 1963 letter to clients of his Buffett Partnership, the investment fund he ran before turning his attention to Berkshire Hathaway. He wanted to convey the power of compound interest in building wealth over time.Buffett noted that Francis I, the former king of France, bought Leonardo Da Vinci's "Mona Lisa" in 1540 for 4,000 gold crowns, or the equivalent of $20,000. If the monarch had plowed that money into an investment generating a modest after-tax return of 6% a year, the country's coffers would be overflowing with more than $1 quadrillion by 1963, or 3,000 times its national debt, the investor pointed out.Meanwhile, the "Mona Lisa" was insured at a value of $100 million in 1962, or over $900 million in today's dollars."I trust this will end all discussion in our household about any purchase of paintings qualifying as an investment," Buffett quipped. His comments resurfaced this month courtesy of Dividend Growth Investor, a Twitter user who tweets about investing.The famed boss of Berkshire Hathaway might not view art as a worthwhile holding, but he considers his job to be something of an art form."Investing is the art of laying out cash now to get a whole lot more cash later on," he said at Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting in 1998. He also described valuing businesses as an "art" during the next year's meeting.Moreover, Buffett has compared building a business to crafting a painting. He deployed that analogy to persuade the cofounder of National Indemnity, Jack Ringwalt, to sell his insurance company to Berkshire in 1967, he recalled at the annual meeting in 2000.The investor asked Ringwalt if he would be happy to have a trust officer dispose of his life's work the day after he died. He reassured the entrepreneur that Berkshire would respect and not resell his business, and also allow him to continue "painting" it."We won't come in and tell you to use reds instead of yellows or anything like that," Buffett recalled telling Ringwalt. "So even though it's a masterpiece now, you can keep adding to it."The Berkshire chief took the metaphor even further, framing his conglomerate as a collector of fine art."We like to think we're the Metropolitan Museum of businesses and that we can get really outstanding creations to reside in our museum," he said.Buffett has also described Berkshire - which owns scores of subsidiaries including Geico and See's Candies as well as multibillion-dollar stakes in Apple, Coca-Cola, and other public companies - as his magnum opus."I regard Berkshire Hathaway sort of like a painter regards a painting, the difference being the canvas is unlimited," Buffett said in 2016.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nyt18 hr. 58 min. ago

The Importance Of Dune, Part 1: The Sleeper Has Awakened

The Importance Of Dune, Part 1: The Sleeper Has Awakened Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, 'n Guns blog, Last year I wrote two editorials for the Newsletter in sympathy with Denis Villeneuve’s film, Dune, originally suppose to come out last December. This one was published in the September 2020 issue when the election was the dominant issue of the day. The movie is now out but won’t come to the U.S. next month and I think it appropriate to publish it now with everything happening in the world today. It’s been edited slightly to bring it up to date. There are few things I’m more looking forward to than the first of two films by Denis Villeneuve bringing to life Frank Herbert’s classic science-fiction novel Dune.  And it isn’t just because I’m a big fan of the book, which is an intricately-plotted treatise on religion, gender, power and politics, but because its ideas are perfected suited for this period of history. Because this story, unlike a lot of recent blockbuster films, should scare the pants off our political leaders as they will see themselves onscreen in their various guises.  And that fear may be enough to waken the sleeper, in the parlance of the book, the silent majority now staring at a bleak future post COVID-19. In the hands of Denis Villeneuve, a film-maker perfectly suited to the material, we could be looking at a movie which becomes a turning point in the culture war.   Villeneuve is one of the few people working today who can marry bold visual storytelling with complex narrative while not browbeating his audience. Watch The Arrival, Sicario or, my favorite, Blade Runner 2049 (see my original thoughts/review here) to get a sense of what we’re in store for.  He reminds me of Ridley Scott at his best, which Scott hasn’t been at for decades. Dune is the story of a space-faring humanity at a time of crisis whose entire civilization, thanks to previous periods of barbarism, is dependent on a single commodity, the spice.  And spice can only be found on the planet Arrakis, or Dune.  The metaphor to oil is obvious since Herbert published the book in 1965. Dune is a pastiche of a number of genres, a classic hero’s journey from adolescence to adulthood for its protagonist, Paul Atreides, told in ways both intensely intimate but keenly aware of these events’ historical importance.  It is an intense political drama with six Houses vying for control against a rising religious jihad against their rule. Looking over our world as we approach the end of 2020 [sic], Dune is especially relevant because it shows us exactly where we are in the cycle of empires.  It will be hard for people to miss these things when they see the movie.   The film will make very clear, if told properly, what happens when the concentration of power in the hands of the few at the expense of the many becomes toxic.  The corruption of the Houses, their plotting and scheming against each other for control of the spice drives all the external action. It’s a deep look at a society coming unglued at the seams, where the political structures, in place for centuries, have become sclerotic.   But it is also a linear narrative that if stripped of its excesses tells a streamlined story about the rise of a new world on the ashes of the old one.  It’s a story about a desert world which is the source of life itself and whose unforgiving environment forges mere men into forces of nature. Because, ultimately, Dune is about the limits of power and how it corrupts everyone.  It reminds all of us that fear is what drives men to make desperate plays to maintain power.  Told mostly through Paul’s eyes as he grows into the man who will lead a revolution, it is the growing unrest of the people which forces the hand of the Emperor to set things in motion and who exists as a vague threat to come in an crush anyone stupid enough to cross him and his near unlimited power.   And yet he too, like every other tyrant, falls. After years of Dune languishing as a nearly dead property Villeneuve’s film will have to answer the most important question if it wants to succeed, “Why Now?”  It isn’t just because someone in Hollywood had the rights to it.  Those rights were tied up by Herbert’s son who had managed them into near irrelevance.  That’s how the project gets started.    They tried to tell this story back in the eighties with David Lynch’s unfortunate film, but it was the wrong time.  There was no resonance with current events during the height of the Reagan reboot of America when optimism was rampant and Ridley Scott had failed not two years earlier with Blade Runner, now a classic but hated on release. That’s the big fear they should have going into release.  And conquering fear is the key thing Paul must do to survive the task in front of him.  His story should become ours as we enter 2022 and, if that happens, that should scare the would-be tyrants of this world to death. *  *  * Since this was written a number of things have happened that validate my fears then. It was a call to action for us to begin hardening ourselves against a bleak and terrifying future. It was also a warning for us not to put our faith in the institutions we think protect us from them. Back then I was worried about the sequel to the Coronapocalypse, now confirmed for me as the rollout of the vaccines against COVID-9/11, as much as Trump being deposed through obvious and under-handed means. It’s why I was so adamant about the election being the inflection point for the world. Everything came down to it. It was a singularity where one world ended and another began. The sleeper awakened that day and those that didn’t see it or refused to see its importance are now complicit in the violence that has come since and is yet to come. The collapsing narrative surrounding the COVID-9/11 vaccines, their efficacy and honestly the dangers they represent to those in low-risk cohorts, it makes sense to see the headlines chocked to the gills with announcements of escalating stakes for us, the unwashed, unclean, unvaxxed and ungovernable. Biden is threatening dishonorable discharges for U.S. military. From what I’ve heard from military men I’ve talked to, that would be 90% of them. New York governor, Kathy Hochul is threatening medical workers with replacement by ‘foreigners’ if they don’t get the jab. It’s like she thinks her job gives her that power? In Australia they are now just shooting protestors in public. Tomorrow I will publish the companion piece, written after the stolen election. It’s called The Jihad. Tomorrow is the day the results of the election audit in Arizona are released. What happens if it proves fraud and Sen. Mark Kelly is recalled due to a decertified election? *  *  * Join my Patreon if you have awakened BTC: 3GSkAe8PhENyMWQb7orjtnJK9VX8mMf7ZfBCH: qq9pvwq26d8fjfk0f6k5mmnn09vzkmeh3sffxd6rytDCR: DsV2x4kJ4gWCPSpHmS4czbLz2fJNqms78oELTC: MWWdCHbMmn1yuyMSZX55ENJnQo8DXCFg5kDASH: XjWQKXJuxYzaNV6WMC4zhuQ43uBw8mN4VaWAVES: 3PF58yzAghxPJad5rM44ZpH5fUZJug4kBSaETH: 0x1dd2e6cddb02e3839700b33e9dd45859344c9edcDGB: SXygreEdaAWESbgW6mG15dgfH6qVUE5FSE Tyler Durden Sat, 09/25/2021 - 23:00.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytSep 26th, 2021

Stocks Positive for the Week After Third Day of Gains

Stocks Positive for the Week After Third Day of Gains Stocks lumbered along on Friday and finished flat for the session, but the major indices still managed to overcome a sharp selloff on Monday and end the week with slight gains. And the market accomplished this turnaround in the second half of September, which is known as the toughest time of the year for stocks. The headline is downright dull today with the S&P rising 0.15% to 4455.48 and the Dow up 0.10% (or about 33 points) to 34,798, giving these indices weekly gains of 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively. Even the NASDAQ finished around the flatline (after a late session surge) by dipping only 0.03% (or less than 5 points) to 15,047.70, putting it up by less than four points over the five days. However, these performances become much more impressive when you consider how this week started, namely with a sharp selloff of 1.7% or more on Monday for each of the indices. So the S&P and NASDAQ ended a two-week skid today, while the Dow is back in the green after a three-week slump. Not a bad turn of events for September. Obviously, the Fed played the right tune on Wednesday by keeping the stimulus measures in place for now, but warning that conditions are good enough to start thinking about scaling back the asset purchases. Many people think the Committee will start the ball rolling before the end of the year… and investors seem to be OK with it. The Evergrande situation continues to be perilous with China’s largest property developer still in danger of defaulting without help from that country’s government. However, the market, which fears contagion from such a big failure, calmed down after the company resolved a $36 million interest payment on Wednesday. Of course, this issue remains unresolved so don’t be surprised if we hear more about it in the days ahead. Speaking of unresolved, we’re still waiting around to see if the government is going to shutdown next week. Congress needs to pass some funding by September 30 or the doors are going to close in October. It’s just another thing that investors will have to worry about. The good news is that September will be over next Thursday. Despite the past three days, the major indices are still down approximately 1.5% each so far this month. Let’s see if we can get back some of those losses next week. Today's Portfolio Highlights: Counterstrike: Shares of food and drug store giant Kroger (KR) have collapsed 16% from recent highs due to supply chain issues. However, Jeremy agrees with analysts that this is likely a temporary problem. But the real head-scratcher with KR is that the market overlooked a strong report, which included a positive earnings surprise and even a raised fiscal year 2021 outlook. The stock has pulled back into a technical buy zone and now Jeremy sees profit in the aisles. He added KR on Friday with a 4% allocation. The plan is to add more on any further unnecessary pullbacks, while enjoying a 2% dividend along the way. Check out the complete commentary for more on this new pick. Stocks Under $10: "This should have been the chance for the quick traders to take profits and sellers should have been able to force this market down a little more here. Instead we see a mostly flat day and that is about as positive of an event as we could have. "This is making me more and more aggressive in my stance and I believe that we are going to be making new highs in early October. "Everything I am seeing, and I mean everything, is telling to get and stay aggressive. This week I will be fine tuning all the portfolios and making sure we are positioned for success." -- Brian Bolan. By the way, this portfolio had the best performer among all ZU names on Friday with RCM Technologies (RCMT, +4.8%). Value Investor: "Add onto all of that that there is uncertainty in Washington DC, with the Federal government possibly facing a shutdown next week and the raising of the debt ceiling deadline looming by mid-October. "I'm not a fan of what is going on in DC. We've seen this movie before, specifically in 2011, and it didn't end well then. In July 2011, the Dow fell for nearly 2 weeks and quickly corrected on worries about a US debt downgrade before an agreement on the debt ceiling and budget was reached. "In 2011, the sell-off was a big buying opportunity, and I'm expecting it to be the same in 2021 if it happens this year too. "But first, we'll have to deal with the pain of the sell-off." -- Tracey Ryniec Have a Great Weekend! Jim Giaquinto Recommendations from Zacks' Private Portfolios: Believe it or not, this article is not available on the Zacks.com website. The commentary is a partial overview of the daily activity from Zacks' private recommendation services. If you would like to follow our Buy and Sell signals in real time, we've made a special arrangement for readers of this website. Starting today you can see all the recommendations from all of Zacks' portfolios absolutely free for 7 days. Our services cover everything from value stocks and momentum trades to insider buying and positive earnings surprises (which we've predicted with an astonishing 80%+ accuracy). Click here to "test drive" Zacks Ultimate for FREE >>  Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 25th, 2021

First Weekly Outflow From Stocks In 2021

First Weekly Outflow From Stocks In 2021 After a tremendous stretch of non-stop weekly inflows into mutual funds and related investment products since before the start of 2021, the latest week showed net selling of equities for the first time this year. According to EPFR, net flows into global equity funds turned negative in the week ending September 22 to the tune of -$28.6BN vs +$45BN last week (which was one of the top 3 largest inflows on record), alongside the sizable drawdown in markets in the start of the week (if not the end). This was the biggest outflow from US stocks since Feb 2018. Offsetting the equity outflow was a massive $39.6BN going into cash (the largest since May’21), a modest $10.0BN into bonds (the smallest in 9 weeks), and a small $84MM into gold. A more detailed breakdown of the equity flows by geographic segment: US: largest outflow since Feb’18 ($28.6bn) Japan: largest inflow in 8 weeks ($0.5bn) Europe: largest outflow since Dec’20 ($1.8bn) EM: inflows past 7 weeks ($2.6bn) By style, the outflows were focused on US small cap ($2.9bn), US value ($3.3bn), US growth ($9.8bn), US large cap ($14.2bn). By sector, the selling was pervasive with ever sector seeing outflows: energy ($0.2bn), real estate ($0.2bn); outflows materials ($12mn), coms svs ($0.1bn), utils ($0.2bn), hcare ($0.1bn), financials ($0.5bn), consumer ($1.0bn), tech ($1.2bn). A key driver for the outflow according to BofA is pessimism over passage of $1tn BIB (Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill) scheduled Sep 27th & $3.5tn BBB (Build Back Better) Reconciliation which caused 2nd biggest outflow ever from infrastructure funds and largest consumer funds outflow YTD. As Bank of America notes, we also had the first outflow from tech funds - the perennial market generals - since June. The net selling was concentrated in the US market, although investors also net sold Western European shares. While Europe saw a total of $1.8BN in outflows, Goldman shows that demand for German equities has cooled ahead of this weekend's federal elections as shown in the bank's chart below. Modest net selling of global EM benchmark products was more than offset by net inflows into country-specific products, including China-dedicated funds. By sector the largest net outflows (scaled by AUM) were from industrials. Flows into fixed income products also cooled slightly (though remained positive), while FX flows favored CNY. The question, as BofA's CIO Michael Hartnett suggests, is whether this is the end of the torrent of institutional and retail buying observed YTD. It matters because as the Bank of America strategist notes, global equity flows & global equity prices have been 93% correlated since ‘02, with both at all-time highs although in ‘21 equity inflows are much higher (>90%) than price (12%). The BofA strategist also notes that despite the massive inflows in 2021, broad global indices such as NYSE (US stocks, ADRs, bond ETFs), S&P500 equal weighted, and ACWI ex-US have been stuck in elevated holding patterns for the past 6 months. Finally, while the Monday meltdown may explain the outflow, how does one explain the latest week meltup? Well, as Hartnett explains, confirming the "bubble zeitgeist", majority of traders are “full-invested bears” but the anecdotal ratio of clients in “melt-up” vs “melt-down” camps currently 8:2, hence bullish price reaction to China/Fed/fiscal events this week, i.e., a vast majority are BTFDers. According to the BofA CIO, history says the best way to hedge “bubble” is via “long leadership, long distressed” barbell, i.e. long leadership of bull (today = IG, tech, biotech…) & long distressed, cyclical plays (today = EM, energy, small cap) as investors chase laggards (the only market that outperformed Nasdaq in ’99 TMT bubble was Russia). Tyler Durden Fri, 09/24/2021 - 17:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 24th, 2021

A Different Way To Think About The Evergrande Collapse

On the evening of June 9, 1772, Alexander Fordyce was drunk out of his mind when he came stumbling home to his wife. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more As Fordyce was a widely respected London banker and senior partner at the firm Neale, James, Fordyce, and Down, this behavior was uncharacteristic… and […] On the evening of June 9, 1772, Alexander Fordyce was drunk out of his mind when he came stumbling home to his wife. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more As Fordyce was a widely respected London banker and senior partner at the firm Neale, James, Fordyce, and Down, this behavior was uncharacteristic… and his family was rightfully worried. The next morning Fordyce was gone. He had fled across the English Channel to France. And then the news struck– his bank had gone bust and was closing its doors. By itself this shouldn’t have been a big deal; it was only one guy, and one bank. But Fordyce hadn’t simply made some bad investments with his own money. Nor had he simply made bad investments with his depositor’s money. Fordyce had borrowed HEAVILY, from just about everyone, and made a number of spectacularly terrible investments. Fordyce’s borrowings had become so vast, in fact, that when he defaulted it nearly brought down the entire financial system. Stock prices crashed. Banks shuttered. Financial markets in foreign countries, including the Netherlands, took a big hit. And the British Government passed the Tea Act in order to raise tax revenue, stabilize the economy, and help the East India Company’s recovery. The Tea Act proved to be wildly unpopular in the colonies, leading to the infamous Boston Tea Party… which was a major precursor to the American Revolution. Now, I’m not saying that Fordyce caused the American Revolution. The Revolution would have probably taken place eventually, even without Fordyce’s catastrophic stupidity. But it is incredible how a single event can trigger a widespread chain reaction with such far-reaching consequences. Fears Over Evergrande Default Yesterday we saw a tiny glimpse of this; stock markets around the world collectively had a minor hissy fit in response to news that a Chinese property developer– Evergrande Property Services Group Ltd (HKG:6666)– would default on its colossal debt. Investors were afraid that an Evergrande default would ripple through the financial system and cause a chain reaction of failures, just like what happened with Fordyce’s default in 1772, and Lehman Brothers in 2008. Now, I do have to say that, based on the the information we have about Evergrande, fears about this specific issue are overblown. Evergrande has roughly $300 billion in liabilities. Even if that entire amount goes to zero, it’s a small fraction of the Chinese banking system’s $5+ trillion in capital. I’d be much more concerned about Evergrande’s impact on China’s notoriously overleveraged ‘shadow banking system’, and their high-risk ‘wealth management products’. But we’ll save that for another time. What I take away from the Evergrande collapse is the reminder about how seemingly innocuous events can have a major impact on global financial markets. Especially now. Stocks, bonds, real estate, and many commodities are at/near all-time highs, some with valuations that are completely absurd. Today, the Price/Earnings ratio for a typical S&P 500 company is nearly 50% higher than before the pandemic. Companies’ revenues and profits are essentially the same as they were in January 2020. Yet stock prices are substantially higher. This Market Is Nuts The situation is so ridiculous that even an analyst who works at S&P wrote earlier this month: “This Market Is Nuts”. In an environment like this, when asset prices already boggle the imagination, it doesn’t take very much for some seemingly irrelevant event, like an Evergrande default, to spark a global sell-off. This is why I’ve been giving so much thought lately to the idea of ‘uncorrelated assets.’ Because if the proverbial bubble ever bursts, it’s going to have a substantial impact on most major asset classes. But uncorrelated asset classes wouldn’t be as affected. Typically, ‘uncorrelated assets’ are thought of as being uncorrelated to the stock market; in other words, a boom or bust in stocks would have zero impact on an uncorrelated asset. But I’ve been giving serious thought to assets that are essentially uncorrelated to central bank policy. This turns out to be a really difficult thing to find. Central bank policy is what influences the vast majority of asset prices; when banks print money (as they have printed vast trillions of dollars over the past 18 months), asset prices rise. This is precisely what we’re seeing today. Stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, etc.– the prices of these asset classes are all heavily influenced by whether or not central banks are printing money. And while nothing can be completely insulated by central bank policy, there are some assets that are less influenced by it, i.e. ‘undercorrelated’. I believe carbon credits are one example, especially in the voluntary market. The price of carbon credits is driven more by social trends, corporate responsibility policies, and government regulation, than by central banks. Central banks’ interest rate policies will impact whether some carbon capture projects are able to obtain funding. But project finance is only one factor in supply; regulatory bureaucracy is a far greater hurdle to overcome than whether interest rates are 2% or 6%. Another example is water rights. Again, while cheap interest rates may encourage more water projects, the availability of water rights is ultimately determined by government policy and social trends, not by central bankers. Agriculture can also be an undercorrelated asset. Major products like corn, wheat, soy, coffee, etc. which have exchange-traded futures contracts are extremely susceptible to central bank policy. But other products, like fruits and nuts, which don’t have exchange-traded futures contracts are much more influenced by traditional supply and demand fundamentals, rather than by monetary policy. High quality technology IP (which can cut costs or increase productivity) can also be undercorrelated to central bank policy. There are others to consider, and we’ll explore this concept further in a future letter… including whether gold and cryptocurrency may be undercorrelated. On another note… We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years. That's why we published a new, 50-page long Ultimate Guide on Gold & Silver that you can download here. Inside you'll learn... How you could Double Your Money with an asset That Has a 5,000 Year History of Prosperity ​Why gold could potentially DOUBLE, and why silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES The 5 smartest, safest and most lucrative ways to own gold and silver (and one way you should definitely avoid) Why gold is the ultimate anti-currency and insurance policy against the systematic destruction of the US dollar (that everyone should at least consider owning) Why ETFs are a lurking timebomb and why you want to avoid them like the plague ​And everything else you need to know about buying, owning, storing and investing in precious metals ​This 50-page report is brand new and absolutely free. Article by Simon Black, Sovereign Man Updated on Sep 24, 2021, 4:35 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 24th, 2021

What to know about futures contracts - and the 5 reasons why investors trade them

Futures are contracts that allow buyers and sellers to agree on the price and delivery of an asset. These contracts can help lock-in prices and mitigate unexpected costs. Companies also use futures contracts to hedge and mitigate the risk of unexpected changes in prices. Thomas Barwick/Getty Images Futures are financial contracts that investors can use to speculate on the direction that certain assets will move. Futures contracts can derive their value from several different asset types like commodities, currencies, stock indexes, and agricultural items. Investing in the futures market is considered highly speculative because of their low margin requirements and volatility. Visit Insider's Investing Reference library for more stories. Much of the investing landscape is based on how an investor feels about the economic landscape and the ways in which that investor can profit or protect themselves. If you believe in a company's ability to succeed, perhaps you might buy the stock or a call option.If you're pessimistic about a company's outlook, you may consider put options. A futures contract is another financial tool that traders can use to speculate on the price swings of assets like oil, gold and other commodities.But what exactly are futures, how do they work, and what sets them apart from options?What are futures?Futures are contracts where the buyer agrees to buy a commodity or financial instrument a particular the quantity, price, and date at a later point in time - and the seller agrees to sell or deliver the asset. Futures are derivatives, which means that their value is derived from an underlying asset. For example, a futures contract on crude oil will be heavily influenced by the price fluctuations of the oil market. Futures contracts can be critical for businesses that depend on certain input goods to operate. The airline industry is well-known for this, because of the fluctuating prices for jet fuel, and uses futures contracts to lock in prices and protect against unexpected costs. While futures contracts based on commodities like corn, oil, and wheat are the most common, there are several other asset types that a futures contract can derive its value from. Here's a short list: Commodity futures: Commodities are tangible assets, agricultural products, and natural resources used in commerce and trade. A short list of futures in this category would include soybeans, corn, wheat, crude oil, and natural gas.Precious metal futures: Gold and silver are the most common metals that fall into this category. Investors who purchase futures contracts on gold or silver are usually looking to hedge against global financial uncertainty, inflation, or geopolitical events. Stock index futures: Futures contracts can also derive their value from an index like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, or Dow Jones. Investors use stock index futures to capitalize on anticipated movements in an index and can be sensitive to events like data releases, such as the US jobs report or statements by the Federal Reserve. Currency futures: These types of futures contracts can be based on the exchange rates between countries. Some of the most popular currency futures contracts include the Canadian dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Euro. US Treasury futures: The interest rates on Treasury bonds have a significant impact on a large part of the financial markets. US Treasury Futures allow investors to speculate on the potential changes in interest rates. Quick tip: Treasury futures are not available for every type of treasury bond. Only 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year bonds are used for futures contracts. Understanding how futures workThere are five key parts to every futures contract, also known as standard contract specifications. Trading hours: Unlike the US stock market, which is open from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET, futures trade almost 24 hours a day, six days a week, starting on Sunday at 6 p.m. ET. The closing time varies between 5 p.m. and 6:45 p.m. ET on Friday, depending on the type of contract you're trading. Contract size: Each type of contract has a predetermined size. One contract of gold will always equal 1,000 troy ounces - a unit of measure used for weighing precious metals - while one contract of S&P 500 futures will be $50 times the S&P 500 index. (So, for example, if the S&P 500 is trading at 2,300, the value of the contract would be $115,000 [$50 x 2,300]).Contract value: The contract value is the current price of the contract. If gold is trading at $1,500 per ounce today, then the contract value would be $150,000. Tick size: This is the smallest denomination that a contract can fluctuate and varies depending on the type of contract. Delivery method: Futures contracts can be financially settled or physically settled. From the investor's perspective, these are usually financially settled, whereas businesses may choose physically settled contracts. Quick tip: Some brokerages do not allow for physically settled futures contracts and will close the contract on your behalf if you do not do it manually. This protects the investor from receiving large quantities of unwanted items. Futures contracts can be purchased on margin, meaning that an investor only needs to put in a small amount of money to control a much larger sum in the market. The minimum amount of money required to enter into a futures contract is known as the initial margin requirement.These requirements are set by the futures exchange and are subject to change. Generally, the margin requirement for futures contracts is between 3-12%. This means, depending on the price of the contract, an investor could spend $5,000 of their own cash to control a $100,000 investment, which represents only 5%.This amount of leverage can present serious risks if the investment does not go as planned and in some cases could cause an investor to lose more than the initial amount invested. Quick tip: Micro E-mini index futures began trading in 2019. This allows investors to enter into futures contracts on a stock index at a much lower price point. These micro futures are 1/10th the size of the standard index futures. 5 reasons investors trade futures Diversifying: Adding futures to your investment portfolio can help you gain exposure to different types of asset classes that aren't as widely available in the stock, bond, and options markets. Speculating: Investors who have an appetite for speculation may see significant gains (or losses) much quicker than in other markets. Hedging: Companies use futures contracts to mitigate the risk of unexpected changes in price. "This works particularly well for anyone that needs to control input prices for a product," says Dominique Henderson, Certified Financial Planner and owner of DJH Capital Management. If prices are rapidly increasing for a commodity, a futures contract can lock in current prices and help preserve profits. Earning tax benefits: Some futures trades can qualify for preferential tax rates using the 60/40 rule: 60% of the profits will receive long-term capital gains treatment, and the remaining 40% will be treated with short-term capital gains. This is a unique structure compared to short- and long-term gains with stocks. Short selling: Short selling is the process of profiting from downward movements in the market. For stocks, short selling usually has higher margin requirements than long positions. But with futures, the margin requirement is the same for both long positions and short positions. This means that the investor can risk less of their cash on-hand for short selling positions with futures than with stocks. Pros and cons of futures As with any investment vehicle, there are pros and cons that you should be aware of. These are some of the major advantages and disadvantages.ProsConsMay qualify for special tax treatment Generally low margin requirements Longer investing hours compared to the stock marketHighly leveraged, meaning the investor could lose more than their initial investment Highly speculative with the potential for significant losses Increased complexityFutures vs. optionsFutures and stock options have many similarities - both are contracts between two parties and can allow an investor to hedge and protect their portfolio - but there are some key differences that you should be aware of. FuturesStock optionsBuyer has the obligation to purchase, while the seller has the obligation to sell the underlying assetCannot be purchased on individual stocks, only certain stock indexesCan lock in the prices for physical goods and financial instrumentsBuyer has the right, not the obligation, to buy or sell shares at the specified price Can be purchased on nearly any individual stock or ETF Options can only lock in prices for financial instruments, not physical goodsThe financial takeawayInvesting with futures can be a way to diversify your portfolio in ways that the more traditional stock and bond investor can't. This additional exposure comes with a few trade offs which include higher rates of volatility, longer trading hours, and special tax advantages."Futures tend to be a more complex or advanced financial instrument," adds Henderson. While the potential for large profits may be tempting, carefully consider the risks before entering into futures trading. It may also be wise to consult a Certified Financial Planner to ensure that a negative move in the futures market does not threaten your overall financial security.How to hedge against inflation with investments that keep pace with rising pricesWhat is OTC? A beginner's guide to over-the-counter markets, and the risks and rewards of investing outside the major stock exchangesAlternative investments are exotic assets that can diversify your portfolioTrading and investing are two approaches to playing the stock market that bring their own benefits and risksRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderSep 24th, 2021

4 Stocks to Watch as the Gaming Space Continues to Boom

The gaming space has been maintaining momentum and investors should keep a close watch on Microsoft (MSFT), JAKKS Pacific (JAKK), Electronic Arts (EA) & Activision Blizzard (ATVI). The gaming space has stood strong through the pandemic, experiencing exponential growth as lockdowns and social-distancing measures limited people’s entertainment options. The global gaming market reached $162.32 billion last year. Major trends like the boom in women gamers, competitive gaming, cloud gaming, a shift in game payment/subscription models and cutting-edge technology (augmented reality & virtual reality) are altering the gaming landscape completely.Even over the past few months as lockdowns eased and people somewhat returned to normal life, the gaming space maintained its solid momentum.Momentum in Video Game Sales StrongPer the NPD Group’s report, consumers in the United States spent $14 billion in the second quarter of 2021, with an increase in sales across PC, cloud and non-console VR content, mobile games and subscription. Gaming content purchases and subscriptions reached $12.57 billion in the quarter.Though sales of gaming consoles, hardware, accessories have slowed down as compared to the peak of the pandemic, the holiday season holds tremendous potential. Several companies have already lined up tiles and series that will be available on newer versions of Xbox, PlayStation and Switches. For October, the Battlefield 2042, Back 4 Blood, Far Cry 6 and Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy game releases caught the attention of gamers. Some gamers have already signed up/pre-purchased the Jurassic World Evolution 2, scheduled for release in November on PC, PS5, Xbox Series X|S, PS4, and Xbox One.Additionally, the NPD Group reported that in August, gamers in the United States spent $4.37 billion, highlighting 7% year-over-year growth on demand for new hardware and a strong month for software.Cloud Transforming the Gaming SpaceWhile gaming consoles and Switch continue to remain gamers’ favorite gadgets, cloud is transforming the gaming space completely. Undeniably, the cloud is the future of gaming. This server-based gaming trend allows gamers to access the latest games from any device without having to spend as much money on hardware. The cloud platforms allow the same games to be played on phones, tablets and PCs. The only drawback here is the speed of the Internet connection, which again can be solved with the deployment of 5G.Google’s cloud gaming platform, Stadia, allows users to instantly play video games on compatible devices. Gamers can choose to buy games directly or subscribe to Stadia Pro for $9.99 per month for a library of games where new ones are added regularly. Similarly, Nvidia offers cloud gaming service through GeForce Now on platforms like Microsoft Windows, ChromeOS, Android and iOS, which are Nvidia Shield devices. Xbox maker Microsoft Corporation MSFT has also kept up with the trend and offers Xbox Game Pass.Per a Research and Markets forecast, the cloud gaming market is estimated to be valued at $2.3 billion in 2020 and is projected to reach $4.98 billion by 2024, at a CAGR of 16.7%.4 Stocks to Keep an Eye onGaming has transitioned from a hobby to one’s favorite source of entertainment during the pandemic. Meanwhile, the rise in digitalization, increasing global online gaming competitions, surge in mobile gaming, and the introduction of cloud gaming will help the space grow further in 2021 and beyond. Hence, we have shortlisted four stocks that investors might want to keep a close watch on.JAKKS Pacific, Inc. JAKK offers an array of video games with hits like Mortal Kombat and SpongeBob SquarePants: Snowball Showdown. The company has an expected earnings growth rate for the current year of more than 100% against the Zacks Toys - Games - Hobbies industry’s projected earnings decline of 4.4%.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s current-year earnings has been revised 80% upward over the past 60 days. JAKKS Pacific currently sports a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Microsoft, a Zacks Rank #2 company, offers cloud gaming with Xbox Game Pass Ultimate. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 8.4% compared with the Zacks Computer - Software industry’s projected earnings growth of 1%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for this company’s current-year earnings has been revised 3.9% upward over the past 60 days.Electronic Arts Inc. EA offers an array of video games that can be played on PlayStation, Xbox, tablets, smartphones and PC. Madden NFL 22, a new release by the company, topped the charts while Assassin’s Creed: Valhalla climbed to the ninth position last month from 20.The company has an expected earnings growth rate for the current year of 15.8% against the Zacks Toys - Games - Hobbies industry’s projected earnings decline of 4.4%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s current-year earnings has been revised 80% upward over the past 60 days. Electronic Arts currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).Activision Blizzard, Inc. ATVI, known for its Call of Duty franchise, is set to release Diablo II: Resurrected during the holiday season this year. This Zacks Rank #3 company has an expected earnings growth rate for the current year of 10.4% against the Zacks Toys - Games - Hobbies industry’s projected earnings decline of 4.4%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s current-year earnings has been revised 1.3% upward over the past 60 days. Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): Free Stock Analysis Report Activision Blizzard, Inc (ATVI): Free Stock Analysis Report JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK): Free Stock Analysis Report Electronic Arts Inc. (EA): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

How To Buy Gold, Silver, And Platinum Using Bitcoin

Purchasing precious metals today is easier than ever. With endless options for investors to buy gold, one of them stands out from the crowd: Bitcoin. In 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto, which is either a person, pseudonym, or collective of people, launched Bitcoin as the first digital cryptocurrency in existence. With bitcoin’s launch came the first blockchain […] Purchasing precious metals today is easier than ever. With endless options for investors to buy gold, one of them stands out from the crowd: Bitcoin. In 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto, which is either a person, pseudonym, or collective of people, launched Bitcoin as the first digital cryptocurrency in existence. With bitcoin’s launch came the first blockchain system. Now after 10 years, Bitcoin has become one of the most innovative forms of currencies around. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Warren Buffett Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Warren Buffett in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Is it a Good Time to Trade Bitcoin for Precious Metals? Definitely! Cryptocurrency and precious metals are becoming highly sought after because of fears of inflation pegged to fiat currency. As inflation increases, the dollar decreases, leading to gold, silver, and now Bitcoin to rise in value. Now, Bitcoin does have its downsides, like market volatility and government regulations increasing more frequently. Because of cryptocurrency uncertainties, many investors continue to buy more stable assets and stores of value like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. What are Some of the Benefits of Using Bitcoin to Purchase Gold? Bitcoin is a decentralized network of nodes that are operated around the world. Since it’s decentralized, a benefit you will find using Bitcoin is that you will not have to use a banking institution that carries many restrictions like limits, slow processing, banking hours, and slow servers. Since Bitcoin only operates online, all you need is an internet connection, crypto wallet, and security key. Making it a very convenient way of completing your precious metals transactions. Are There Any Security Concerns Using Bitcoin? Using Bitcoin is an extremely safe way to make purchases or exchange currency. Your data is anonymous in the system and the only identifier is your Bitcoin address. This will allow you to purchase your gold without telling the world that you did so. Another security feature you will find is that all transactions are encrypted. Nodes on the network will go through a process of solving extremely complex formulations and then submit Proof of Work (PoW) so that it can get verified. When the majority of the node network agrees that the formulations are correct, then the transaction is complete. Since all of these security features are extremely complex, no one can manipulate the transaction without the verification process. As soon as the transaction is applied to the blockchains ledger, no one can change it. How Fast Are Bitcoin Transactions? Traditional financial institutions conduct transactions through many intermediaries. Because of this, they can be slow and frustrating. Bitcoin is a decentralized peer-to-peer network that allows transactions to go from one digital wallet to another, making for very quick transactions. Are Bitcoin Transaction Fees High? Since Bitcoin eliminates large financial institutions, transaction fees are very low. How do I Get Bitcoin? First, get yourself a digital wallet. This will be necessary when holding Bitcoin virtually. You can find many out there, so do your research and find one that best fits your needs. Then, go to a crypto exchange and set up an account. This will allow you to fund your crypto exchange account with your bank account. Once your account is connected to the exchange, you can convert your fiat currency like USD into BTC (Bitcoin). This can either stay in your exchange account or you can send it to your digital wallet. To make purchases using your Bitcoin, you will need to send your Bitcoin to your digital wallet. Once you have ownership of your Bitcoin, you’ll be all set to purchase your gold in no time. Which Precious Metals Exchanges Handle Bitcoin? Since the adoption of Bitcoin as a form of digital currency, many exchanges are happy to include this forward-thinking form of payment. Bullion Exchanges, with both a physical location and website, is one of the leading precious metals companies that has pioneered the acceptance of cryptocurrencies in exchange for gold. Bullion Exchanges make it very easy to use your Bitcoin. You can simply shop on their site, add your desired metals to your cart, and purchase using your Bitcoin on their bitpay application. Because of companies like Bullion Exchanges, Bitcoin is becoming a trusted method of buying gold, silver, and platinum. Buying precious metals is a great way to diversify your investment portfolio and is also a way to protect your wealth from economic uncertainties. If you are an avid coin collector, what better way is there to buy your desired coins than with a digital one. Conclusion Purchasing gold and other precious metals with Bitcoin is a very new way to conduct transactions. More and more companies are coming out with new blockchain applications that allow for ease of use and security features. Bitcoin’s future seems bright as the leading cryptocurrency for those who want to use the “gold standard'' of crypto. With fears of an impending economic crisis in the air and people losing their faith in government and financial institutions, buying gold and other precious metals is a sound way to go, especially if you are using Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. As time goes on, governments are looking toward implementing their cryptocurrencies or even adopt a cryptocurrency as its official currency, as El Salvador recently did with Bitcoin. So, it behooves everyone to learn how to make financial transactions with cryptocurrencies and obtain a digital wallet. Might as well let your first Bitcoin transaction be for an investment that has stood the test of time, GOLD! Updated on Sep 24, 2021, 12:56 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 24th, 2021

Will Biden’s Neo-Populist Economic Doctrine Support Gold?

Biden scaled back on his infrastructure bill. However, with all the remaining cards still in play, his economic agenda should be positive for gold. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Trends In The Gold Inflation, bond yields, monetary policy… that’s all interesting and crucial to understand trends in the gold markets – but, […] Biden scaled back on his infrastructure bill. However, with all the remaining cards still in play, his economic agenda should be positive for gold. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Trends In The Gold Inflation, bond yields, monetary policy… that’s all interesting and crucial to understand trends in the gold markets – but, hey, what’s up in politics? A lot has happened recently on this front. In particular, last month, the world was shocked by the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The messy pullover and the quick takeover of the country by the Taliban is not only the end of Biden’s honeymoon but also America’s great failure. Some analysts even say that the fall of Kabul is another Saigon time for the US. Indeed, it goes without saying that the collapse in Afghanistan is a huge blow to America’s reputation. So, it could weaken the faith in Uncle Sam and its currency, which could be positive for gold in the long run. However, the end of the US mission in Afghanistan doesn’t pose any direct threats to America (although terrorism could thrive under the Taliban regime) or to the greenback. So, I don’t expect any substantial, long-lasting moves in gold prices (always remember that geopolitical events cause only short-lived fluctuations, if any). Another recent important development in the US policy was that the Senate passed a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, which is a big step in pushing Biden’s economic agenda through Congress. The economic effect will probably be smaller than expected, as public stimulus rarely works as intended. So, I don’t expect any material impact on gold prices, especially given that this additional government spending has already been priced in. However, I would like to point out that Biden has scaled back his infrastructure plans from $2.2 trillion and agreed to spend these funds over a longer period. It means that the US fiscal policy, although still unprecedentedly easy, is normalizing somewhat (see the chart below), at least compared to Democrats’ initial huge plans (however, they are still working on a budget resolution that would allow them to approve a complementary $3.5 trillion spending plan). A normalization of the fiscal policy is bad for gold prices, especially when coupled with the Fed’s tightening cycle. Biden’s Economic Agenda Let’s step back — it turns out that it’s quite fruitful to look at Biden’s economic agenda from a bit broader perspective. It becomes clear that Biden – despite his hatred for Trump – actually continues Trumponomics. Nouriel Roubini calls Biden’s doctrine “neo-populist” and sees the paradox in the fact that it “has more in common with Trump’s policies than with those of Barack Obama’s administration, in which the current president previously served”. Indeed, every president from Bill Clinton to Obama favored trade liberalization and a strong dollar while respecting the Fed’s independence. They were also understanding the importance of the moderate fiscal policy (although the practice differed, especially after the financial crisis of 2007-9). They were far from being laissez-faire advocates, but at least they didn’t question the economic orthodoxy. Then Trump stepped in, inaugurating a trade war with China, and imposing tariffs on goods from other countries as well. He also questioned the Fed’s actions, which supported a weak greenback and ballooned fiscal deficits even before the epidemic started. Biden’s rhetoric is softer and his actions less erratic, but he has maintained Trump’s tariffs, pursuing similar nationalist and protectionist trade policy. He even widened the already large budget deficit, continuing the spending spree financed by public debt. Although Biden doesn’t openly favor a weak dollar, the current administration is far from pursuing a strong-dollar policy. He also supported large direct cash transfers to citizens that Trump started in response to the pandemic. Last but not least, Biden fights with Big Business, introducing some anti-monopoly policies. Implications For The Gold Market What does it all mean for the gold market? Well, the continuation of neo-populist economic doctrine and shifting away from sound economics (I wrote about this earlier this year) implies generally looser monetary and fiscal policies. Larger debts create a risk of a debt crisis, while downplaying the inflationary pressures (as for populists, price stability is less important than employment gains, rising wages, or reducing inequalities) increases the odds of inflation crisis or even stagflation (big government and huge indebtedness could hamper the pace of GDP growth). As we know from Latin America, the rules of populists and MMT-like policies never end well. And, as we know from the 1970s, constant stimulation of the economy (because there is still some slack) and neglecting the dangers of inflation could be disastrous. So, Bidenomics should be generally supportive of gold. Having said that, investors should remember that many more factors influence gold prices than just the President’s actions. A part of Biden’s presidency will coincide with the economic expansion from the pandemic recession and normalization of the interest rates that will likely create downward pressure on the yellow metal. Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today! Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care. Updated on Sep 24, 2021, 11:07 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 24th, 2021