Iowa Poll: Trump Holds 3-to-1 Lead Over DeSantis

Seven Republicans, including Trump, have made a White House run official, others are considering jumping in, and some have dropped out. Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an event at Mar-a-Lago on November 15, 2022 in Palm Beach, Florida.Joe Raedle/Getty Images Trump, Haley, Ramaswamy, Hutchinson, Elder, Tim Scott, and DeSantis are running for president. Others have been floating the possibility of entering the GOP contest — and some are dropping out. From Pence to Cruz, here's how Republicans are laying the groundwork for presidential runs. Seven Republicans are now running for president in 2024 — at least officially. Embattled former President Donald Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, conservative commentator Larry Elder, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are the candidates who have so far formally announced a 2024 presidential bid.But plenty of others appear to be toying with the same idea.They're doing all the things they're supposed to do to test their chances: Visiting early primary states, writing books, showing up on the Sunday shows, and weighing in publicly on President Joe Biden's policies — and even Trump's latest controversies. The next step will be hiring teams in Iowa and New Hampshire, Doug Heye, a longtime GOP aide and strategist, told Insider."You have got a stable of people who are essentially putting themselves all in the starting gates and all have their own timetable about when and if they decide to run," he said. Over the next few weeks and months, candidates would be floating what Kristin Davison, vice president and general consultant at Axiom Strategies, called "trial balloons" — in which they publicly raise the prospect of a run to see how donors and the press will react. Whoever seizes the nomination will likely face Biden, who made a run official on April 25. But, Heye said, "it's a real possibility" that the GOP lineup will large.The stakes for losing the nomination aren't all bad, even if Republicans might come out of it with an unforgettable Trump nickname. After all, one of the people running for president could get chosen as the running mate or get a seat on the new president's Cabinet.And there are other perks to formally seeking the White House, such as raising one's profile and having a better shot at the presidency during a future cycle. Candidates could also sell a lot more books or leave politics to get a prime TV or radio show. "It's a long, difficult process," Heye said, "and you're more likely to lose than not."Trump's legal, political, and personal liabilities have been piling up for several months, leading many in the GOP to say the party needs not just a fresh face but to be led by a candidate who can actually win. Insider identified 15 people who have or could seek the Republican nomination in 2024. Each will have to effectively answer the "why I'm running for president" question and find their lane in the party, which will inevitably include defining — or redefining — their relationship with Trump. "I don't think you can discount any of them at this point," Heye said. "It's too early to determine who outside of Trump is a frontrunner." And others, like newly minted GOP star Glenn Youngkin, 56, are already bowing out of consideration, with Youngkin telling attendees on May 1 at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California that he still had work to do in Virginia. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has also officially declared he's not seeking the nomination, despite releasing a book and rumblings he was considering a run.Scroll through to see the politicians who have either already declared or are potentially gearing up for run — and who has officially decided not to move forward:Gov. Ron DeSantis of FloridaRepublican gubernatorial candidate for Florida Ron DeSantis speaks during an election night watch party at the Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on November 8, 2022.Giorgio VIERA / AFP via Getty ImagesDeSantis, 44, made his long-anticipated run official on May 24. The two-term governor of Florida launched his bid to wrest control of the party from Trump in a glitchy interview with Twitter owner Elon Musk that was quickly dubbed a #DeSaster on the now right-leaning platform. DeSantis campaign spokesman Bryan Griffin tried to spin the online debacle — which purportedly attracted roughly half-a-million participants before technical difficulties thinned the audience to around 300,000 — as a groundbreaking achievement. "There was so much enthusiasm for Governor DeSantis' vision for our Great American Comeback that he literally busted up the internet," Griffin boasted on Twitter. Trump, who's been raring to rip his former ally apart, was having none of it. "Tim Scott's Presidential launch, even with the broken microphone (don't pay the contractor, Tim!), was by far the best Presidential launch of the week. Robs was a catastrophe!" the combative former president gloated on his own social media channel. DeSantis deliberately avoided mentioning Trump on Wednesday night, sticking with the talking points about the gubernatorial agenda that's gotten him this far. He famously and unapologetically reopened Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic, before federal health officials said he should. He banned certain teachings on race in workplaces and schools, and flew unsuspecting migrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts.DeSantis also signed a contentious parental involvement and sex ed bill into law that critics call "Don't Say Gay." Instead of backing down over the outcry, he worked to punish Disney for threatening to repeal it and then expanded the law. Then there were the historic tax cuts in Florida with promises of more as well as viral videos bashing what he calls the "corporate media." All of these actions have portrayed the governor as a fighter. That's not the only part of his public persona on display. Often in tow is his beautiful, young family. His former newscaster wife, Florida's first lady Casey DeSantis, has been instrumental in his rise. To the New York Post, pictures of the DeSantis family on Election Night was "DeFuture." Others see a conservative JFK. But the politician DeSantis most often gets compared to is Trump. Numerous news profiles have described DeSantis as "Trump without the baggage," or as a more disciplined Trump. Yet after leaning on Trump during his first gubernatorial victory in 2018, DeSantis showed he could win big on his own, scoring a historic, 20-point victory in Florida in November without Trump's endorsement.DeSantis also released his first memoir in February: "The Courage to Be Free: Florida's Blueprint for America's Revival." During the midterms, he extended goodwill to other Republicans by campaigning with them. Back at home, he raked in a record amount of cash for a gubernatorial race. If the GOP primary were decided today, numerous polls show, DeSantis is the only person that gets close to Trump. Trump has nicknamed DeSantis "Ron DeSanctimonious" and threatened to release damaging information about the governor. Sen. Tim Scott of South CarolinaSen. Tim Scott, a Republican of South Carolkina, speaks at a fundraiser in Anderson, South Carolina on August 22, 2022.Meg Kinnard/AP Photo, FileScott, 57, made his run official on May 22. "I am living proof that America is the land of opportunity, not a land of oppression," he said during his formal campaign launch in North Charleston, South Carolina. He'd hinted at a presidential bid during his midterms victory speech, even though he previously said he wouldn't run against Trump. "My grandfather voted for the first man of color to be elected as president of the United States," he said on November 8, referring to the vote his grandfather cast for Obama. "I wish he had lived long enough to see perhaps another man of color elected president of the United States. But this time, let it be a Republican and not just a Democrat. So just know: All things are possible in America."Scott, who previously served in the US House, is the only Black Republican in the Senate. He said his six-year term in the Senate beginning in January would be his last, but he didn't rule out a presidential run. He also released a memoir, "America, a Redemption Story: Choosing Hope, Creating Unity" and is one of the top fundraisers in the Senate — which includes support from small and online donors — even though he defended a safe seat this cycle.Major donors have contributed to Opportunity Matters Fun, a pro-Scott super PAC. In February, he launched a listening tour. Scott was among those leading the push for the successful passage of the bipartisan First Step Act and his measure to create Opportunity Zones that bring private investments into economically distressed communities was part of the 2017 tax reform law. He garnered national interest after delivering the GOP response to Biden's address to Congress in 2021. Afterward, McConnell said the senator represented "the future of the Republican Party." Scott has been open about the racism he has faced over the course of his life. "I get called Uncle Tom and the n-word by progressives, by liberals," he said in response to Biden's address. He has shared that police have pulled him over numerous times, despite him not violating any traffic laws. He sat down with Trump at the White House to discuss systemic racism and publicly called on Trump to call back certain statements he made on race. Haley, who was South Carolina governor at the time, appointed Scott to the Senate in 2013 after the seat opened up. Former UN Ambassador Nikki HaleyFormer UN Ambassador Nikki Haley during a news conference in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday, October 26, 2022.Matt Rourke/AP PhotoHaley, 51, made a run official on February 15. During her campaign launch in Charleston, South Carolina, she portrayed herself as a young leader who could win elections. "If you're tired of losing, put your trust in a new generation," she said. Her experiences in public office give her the coveted pairing of having both executive and foreign policy chops, which are often viewed as crucial to the presidency. Aside from Trump and Pence, few other contenders would have such a profile. As a woman of Indian descent, she could also help bring in suburban women voters who graduated from college and expand the GOP coalition among people of color. She embraced her unique background during her campaign kickoff, wearing suffragette white and and calling herself "a brown girl growing up in a black-and-white world." Haley has had a turnaround from last year, when she said she wouldn't run for president if Trump were to seek the White House in 2024. She started our her career working in the private sector, joining her family's clothing business before leading the National Association of Women Business Owners.She served in the South Carolina House for three terms then was the state's governor for six years. In that time Haley delivered the GOP response to Obama's 2016 State of the Union Address.She pushed for the removal of the confederate flag from the South Carolina capitol after a gunman killed nine Black people at Emanuel Church in Charleston. Also as governor, Haley would not support a bill requiring transgender people to use the restroom that corresponded with the gender on their birth certificate. But in 2021 she wrote a commentary in the National Review saying transgender inclusion in sports was an "attack on women's rights."Haley was UN Ambassador under Trump for two years, and successfully pushed for the US to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem and defended Trump's decision to do so.In 2019 she published a memoir, "With All Due Respect: Defending America with Grit and Grace." Haley campaigned and fundraised in high-profile races during the 2022 midterms, including in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Haley told the National Republican Committee the day after the January 6 riot that Trump was "badly wrong" in his speech to supporters and that his "actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history." Tech entrepreneur Vivek RamaswamyRamaswamy founded the biopharmaceutical company Roivant Sciences.Fox NewsRamaswamy, 37, made his run official on February 22. Ramaswamy is an Indian-American tech entrepreneur who co-founded Strive Asset Management and serves as its executive chairman. He also founded the biopharmaceutical company Roivant Sciences."We're in the midst of a national identity crisis. Faith, patriotism & family are disappearing. We embrace one secular religion after another — from wokeism to climatism — to satisfy our deeper need for meaning," he said in a video announcing his campaign. "Yet we cannot even answer what it means to be an American." —Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) February 22, 2023 Ramaswamy wrote "Woke, Inc.: Inside Corporate America's Social Justice Scam" and "Nation of Victims: Identity Politics, the Death of Merit, and the Path Back to Excellence."The New Yorker nicknamed Ramaswamy the "CEO of Anti-Woke Inc." for his stance against environmental, social, and governance investing.In February, he delivered a speech about ESG at Trump National Doral, near Miami, before the exclusive and influential Council for National Policy at Trump Doral, where DeSantis was also a key speaker. Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of ArkansasArkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson attends the National Governors Association summer meeting, Friday, July 15, 2022, in Portland, Maine.Robert F. Bukaty/AP PhotoHutchinson, 72, threw his hat into the ring on April 2. He told ABC News correspondent Jonathan Karl there would be a full-scale rollout later on in his hometown of Bentonville, Arkansas, but that his mind was made up. "I've traveled the country for six months, I hear people talk about the leadership of our country," Hutchinson said Sunday. "I'm convinced that people want leaders that appeal to the best of America, and not simply appeal to our worst instincts."He also weighed in on Trump's indictment in New York, calling it a "great distraction" that voters need to get past. "We can't set aside what our Constitution requires — which is electing a new leader for our country — just because we have this side controversy and criminal charges that are pending," Hutchinson said, adding, "And so we've got to press on, and the American people are gonna have to separate what the ideas are for our future."Hutchinson hasn't been shy about criticizing Biden or Trump. After Trump's 2024 announcement, he said the former president's "self-indulging message promoting anger has not changed," and also disavowed the Fuentes and Ye meeting at Mar-a-Lago.Hutchinson has taken at least five trips to Iowa through America Strong & Free, the nonprofit of which he's the honorary chairman and spokesperson."I am seriously looking at a run in 2024 because America and the Republican Party are not in the best place," he said in a statement provided to Insider. "I know how to get us back on track both in terms of leadership and facing the challenging issues of border security, increased violent crime, and energy inflation." As governor of Arkansas for eight years, Hutchinson has pushed to make the state a leader in computer science, and signed several tax cuts into law, including lowering the state income tax rate from 7% to 4.9%. Hutchinson also signed bills into law blocking businesses from requiring customers and workers to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination and blocked state and local officials from obligating masks — a move he later said he regretted. He asked state lawmakers to create a carve-out for schools, but the Arkansas House rejected the proposal. While he signed an abortion ban into law in 2019 that took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, he said on CNN that he personally believes in exceptions for rape and incest."Many out there appreciate a 'consistent conservative,' even one they don't agree with all the time," Hutchinson told Insider. "I am not interested in the 'outrage of the day,' and I am committed to using my consistent conservative principles to guide me and our nation on important policy decisions." Hutchinson began his government career as a US attorney for the Western District of Arkansas under President Ronald Reagan, then went on to serve in the US House for three terms. President George W. Bush tapped him to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration, after which he served as undersecretary in the Department of Homeland Security. He has criticized Biden on illegal immigration, inflation, and student-loan forgiveness. He said on CNN that the president's September speech about "MAGA Republicans" and democracy "singled out a segment of Americans and said basically they're our enemy."Hutchinson also has the distinction of being especially press friendly at a time when numerous Republicans have copied Trump's style of lashing out against journalists. "The media plays an important role in our democracy," Hutchinson told Insider. "I've never shied away from tough questions, and I have always been willing to defend my positions and conservative principles with the hard questions coming from the press."Conservative commentator Larry ElderGOP presidential hopeful Larry Elder speaks to guests at the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition Spring Kick-Off on April 22, 2023 in Clive, Iowa.Scott Olson/Getty ImagesLarry Elder, 71, made his first presidential bid official on April 20. A conservative talk show personality who led the field of nearly four dozen candidates attempting to replace California Gov. Gavin Newsom during a 2021 recall effort, Elder entered the fray with a "we've got a country to save!" pitch.—Larry Elder (@larryelder) April 21, 2023 "We can enter a new American Golden Age, but we must choose a leader who can bring us there. That's why I'm running for President," Elder said during the rollout of his long shot campaign. A lawyer turned Fox News fixture, Elder's platform mirrors many MAGA grievances: condemning critical race theory and the idea that systemic racism exists, bemoaning immigration at the southern border, demanding school choice to "break the monopoly" of public schools, and branding Democrats as "soft on crime." He also takes frequent swipes at President Joe Biden and routinely engages in "woke" culture war fights on social media. The budding politician, who wrote about his surprise gubernatorial run in "As Goes California: My Mission to Rescue the Golden State and Save the Nation," is no stranger to controversy. His ex-fiancee, Alexandra Datig, accused Elder of flashing a gun at her during an argument while he was under the influence of marijuana. Elder denied it ever happened in a Twitter thread. CNN reported that Elder was accused of sexual harassment twice — allegations Elder also waved off. Former Rep. Liz Cheney of WyomingRep. Liz Cheney, a Republican of Wyoming, campaigned with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat of Michigan, at an Evening for Patriotism and Bipartisanship event on November 1, 2022 in East Lansing, Michigan.Bill Pugliano/Getty ImagesCheney, 56, is the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney and one of Trump's toughest Republican critics.She voted to impeach Trump after the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, and served as vice chair of the House select committee investigating Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.Cheney's actions have come at a cost under the heavy weight of Trump's ire. House Republicans punished her by stripping her of her leadership post, and she lost her US House seat to Trump-backed GOP challenger Harriet Hageman during the state's August primary.But she hasn't been deterred. Cheney said on NBC's "Today" that she would do "whatever it takes" to keep Trump out of the White House in 2024, including "thinking about" running for president herself. "I wouldn't be surprised to see her run for president," Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah told Insider in August. Cheney voted with Trump on policy when he was in office, and remains a conservative, telling the Reagan Foundation and Institute in June 2022 that she believes "deeply in the policies of limited government, of low taxes, of a strong national defense." But Cheney said she sees a breaking point with the Republican Party, telling the Texas Tribune Festival in September that she would leave the GOP if Trump became the 2024 nominee.This could mean she'd run for president as an Independent. Already, she has shown she's willing to campaign against Republicans who falsely deny that Biden won the 2020 presidential election.In 2022, Cheney converted her House campaign finance committee into an anti-election denier leadership PAC called The Great Task. The PAC spent $500,000 on a TV ad in Arizona that urged voters to reject Republicans Kari Lake and Mark Finchem, who were running for governor and secretary of state, respectively. During the 2022 midterms, Cheney endorsed incumbent Democratic Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia. Both won their races. "We had to make sure that we prevented election deniers from taking power," she told The Washington Post's Global Women's Summit in November. Many outsiders see long odds for Cheney, though a poll conducted in Utah found she could be a top contender there. Sen. Ted Cruz of TexasSen. Ted Cruz, a Republican of Texas, speaks at a rally for Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker on November 10, 2022 in Canton, Georgia.Megan Varner/Getty ImagesCruz, 52, was the last Republican standing against Trump during the 2016 presidential nomination and had even announced that he'd pick former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina as his running mate. But Cruz — whom Trump nicknamed "Lyin' Ted" — lost following a nasty primary in which Trump levied highly personal attacks against the senator, including disparaging his wife's looks and falsely suggesting that Cruz's father had something to do with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Once Trump was in office, however, Cruz was one of the president's  biggest defenders. He voted to overturn the 2020 election results in Arizona and Pennsylvania and helped to secure Trump's acquittal in his second impeachment trial. In recent months, Cruz has been spending time in New Hampshire and during the midterms campaigned with retired football star Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff. While in the Senate, Cruz led the successful effort to zero out the unpopular fine on the uninsured created by the Affordable Care Act.More recently, Cruz used Ketanji Brown Jackson's Supreme Court confirmation hearing to score points for a potential 2024 run, questioning her about school curriculum on race. Before coming to Congress, Cruz was solicitor general in Texas, a role that involves arguing cases before the Supreme Court. When Insider asked whether Trump's latest missteps had provided an opening for him to jump into the 2024 presidential race, Cruz chuckled a bit before laying out what sounded like a near-term agenda. "I think the Senate is the battleground … and I'm going to do everything I can to lead the fight right here," Cruz told Insider before launching into a tirade about his mounting frustration with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's decision making. He made no specific mention of 2024, but also didn't work in the word "no" anywhere.Cruz told the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas that he'll seek reelection in Texas in 2024 when his term is up, though state law allows him to run for both offices at the same time.Former Gov. Chris Christie of New JerseyFormer New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition Saturday, November 19, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoChristie, 60, is famously said to have missed his moment for the White House because he didn't run for president when he was getting a lot of attention as New Jersey's governor in 2012, and instead fizzled out in 2016 when faced with Trump and numerous other contenders. But that hasn't stopped him from weighing another go at it. In October, during an appearance on "Real Time with Bill Maher," Christie confirmed that he was considering a 2024 run. Now, New Hampshire Today says an announcement is imminent.Christie wrote a book in 2021, titled "Republican Rescue: Saving the Party From Truth Deniers, Conspiracy Theorists, and the Dangerous Policies of Joe Biden." He served two terms as a Republican governor in a blue state where Democrats controlled the legislature. In that role, he expanded Medicaid under Obamacare and passed bail reform.But he got flak over a handshake with then-President Barack Obama during Hurricane Sandy relief efforts, and was hurt politically after members of his administration created traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge.Christie became a lobbyist in 2020, when he had several healthcare clients but cut ties a year later, according to the lobbying disclosure database, in what could be a sign that he's lining up for a run.   Today, Christie blames Trump for the GOP's losses the last three election cycles and spent months saying Republicans "have to be the party of tomorrow, not the party of yesterday" if they ever want to win another election. His tone on Trump is a stunning turnaround for a man who was one of Trump's closest outside advisors when he was in the White House and was even on the shortlist to be Trump's chief of staff. Christie turned on Trump after January 6, saying the president violated his oath of office. He told The New York Times that Trump's candidacy was "untenable" and that the former president had had "poor judgement" after he dined at Mar-a-Lago with white supremacist and Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes. He also told the Washington Examiner that Republicans "fail the leadership test" when they don't call out Trump. South Dakota Gov. Kristi NoemSouth Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, Texas, on July 11, 2021.Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesNoem, 51, has been on a Trump-related roller coaster ride as of late. In January 2021, the embattled former president tried to get her to primary fellow South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a lawmaker Trump took to calling a RINO (which stands for "Republican in name only") after Thune balked at his baseless claims of election fraud. Noem bowed out of joining Trump's revenge campaign, opting to focus on her own re-election plans. Once 2022 rolled around, she leaned hard into the GOP culture wars, promising voters that she'd bar transgender athletes from participating in women's sports, stamp out any "critical race theory" instruction in local schools, and decimate any "radical political ideologies" that annoyed her evangelical Christian base.Come July, Noem told CNN she'd be "shocked" if Trump tapped her to be his 2024 running mate. But she didn't rule out sliding into the VP slot — or mounting a challenge of her own. Since winning a second term in November, Noem has started taking on bigger foes, including the People's Republic of China. —Kristi Noem (@KristiNoem) November 30, 2022 Her state government-wide ban against the use of social media app TikTok scored her fawning interviews on conservative outlets including Fox News and Newsmax, beaming her into the homes of potential admirers who don't happen to reside in the Mount Rushmore State. Noem seems far less enthusiastic about Trump these days, telling reporters that the twice-impeached, scandal-plagued former president isn't Republicans' "best chance" at retaking the White House in 2024. She issued this prediction just days after Trump announced he was running again.  Former Vice President Mike PenceFormer Vice President Mike Pence speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition on Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPence, 63, has been distancing himself from his former boss, while also promoting his new book, "So Help Me God." He told ABC's "World News Tonight" that Trump "decided to be part of the problem" by not immediately calling off the insurrectionists during the January 6 riot, after he declined to help invalidate Biden's lawful win. Pence also pushed back against Trump on WVOC in South Carolina after he called for terminating the Constitution, and came out forcefully after Trump had dinner with Fuentes."President Trump was wrong to give a white nationalist, an anti-Semite, and a Holocaust denier a seat at the table," he said on November 28. An adviser to the former vice president told Insider that, should Pence decide to run, the team has discussed several policy areas to differentiate himself, including Trump's bipartisan criminal justice reform bill, the First Step Act, and that he'll continue to be "very outspoken on the issue of life."Pence wouldn't have to worry about name ID during a presidential run. Still, his new book and a campaign would allow him to reintroduce himself to voters by talking about his work in the US House and then as governor of Indiana. He already has made numerous trips to early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina. Further, he'll be able to amplify policies that carried his fingerprints during the Trump administration, including his oversight of the US's pandemic response.Pence was a sought-after midterm surrogate, traveling to dozens of states. In May, he went to Georgia to help incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp beat Trump-backed primary challenger David Perdue.Pence's vision for the future of the party is laid out in his Freedom Agenda and Advancing American Freedom, the nonprofit aligned with him that serves as a type of campaign in waiting. The policies include reducing mail-in voting and implementing universal school choice, which allows public education funds to pay for K-12 students to select alternatives to public schools. While Pence didn't testify before the January 6 select committee, his senior aides including former chief of staff Marc Short and legal advisor J. Michael Luttig walked investigators through some of the scenarios that led up to the attack. In November, Pence said on Fox's "Hannity" that he would make a 2024 decision after discussing it with his family during the holidays. Sen. Marco Rubio of FloridaWilfredo Lee/AP PhotoRubio, 51, has come out hot after cruising to a third term in November, castigating GOP leaders for totally blowing the midterms. "We have a historically unpopular Dem President, record inflation, a violent crime wave & total chaos at the border & not only did we fail to win a majority, we lost a seat. And the Senate GOP response is going to be to make no changes?" Rubio fumed in a December 7 Twitter post. His anger hadn't abated when Insider caught up with him at the US Capitol. "I don't know how you come back from what we have just encountered and conclude that the status quo and business as usual is how we want to proceed," Rubio said of the need for drastic changes within the GOP. While conceding that he doesn't have "all those answers," Rubio suggested that Senate Republicans take a hard look at "the mechanics of elections, policy, the legislative agenda, and all of that." "I think that's something we should all be involved in talking about," Rubio said of the sorely needed soul searching. Rubio, who is of Cuban descent, was speaker of the Florida House before heading to Washington. He has sponsored numerous bills that have become law, including doubling the child tax credit and co-authoring the Paycheck Protection Program that helped keep small businesses afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.On top of that, he's got a powerful perch as the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee. Political operatives have credited him with helping the GOP grow its influence with Hispanic voters, NBC News reported. Asked by Insider whether he had it in him to take another run at the former president after getting clobbered by the insult-flinging Trump in 2016, Rubio said he just really needs to take a breath. "We'll have time over the holidays and into the new year to sort of focus on everything going on in my life and here in the Senate," Rubio told Insider, adding that he hasn't "really focused in on" returning to the presidential proving grounds at the moment. Perhaps voters will learn more about future plans in his forthcoming book, "Decades of Decadence." Miami Mayor Francis SuarezTaylor Hill / Contributor Getty ImagesSuarez, 45, confirmed in October that he's considering a presidential run. By March, he was still deciding, he told the Miami Herald. "It's something that I would consider given the right circumstances and given the right mood of the country," Suarez said at a Punchbowl News event in October. Miami has been getting a lot of attention given the surge of people moving to Florida — and tech companies and crypto startups in particular headed to Miami under Suarez's encouragement. He even told Twitter CEO Elon Musk that he should consider relocating the company's headquarters from San Francisco.Suarez's office sent over a list of accomplishments for the mayor, saying the city was No. 1 in job and wage growth, and had 1.4% unemployment. The Financial Times called Miami "the most important city in America." The mayor made historic increases to the city's police department, increased funding on climate-resistant infrastructure, and passed a rental tax credit for seniors. Suarez didn't vote for Trump during the 2020 election and in the 2018 gubernatorial race in Florida he voted for Democrat Andrew Gillum over DeSantis. He did flip in 2022, voting for DeSantis for reelection, he told Insider. Suarez said Trump has been kind to him. The two spoke at a wedding recently, he said, and Trump told him he was the "hottest politician in America after him.""I don't know if he meant physically hot or if he meant I was getting a lot of buzz," Suarez said. "But he was very nice." Suarez is of Cuban descent and leads the National Conference of Mayors. When asked about how he might stand out in a presidential race, Suarez said he might be able to speak to "a variety of minority communities that are going to be important if Republicans want to grow their base for a generation." Gov. Chris Sununu of New HampshireGov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire.Jon Cherry/Getty Images for ConcordiaSununu, 48, was just reelected to a fourth term in New Hampshire, where governors are reelected every two years and there are no term limits. There's a "61 percent chance" he runs for president, he told Puck last week. Sununu is a centrist Republican who has the distinction of being in favor of abortion rights, at a time when many states are banning abortion. He came close to running for the US Senate in 2022, but told the Washington Examiner that other senators told him their main job was to be a "roadblock" in office — and he wasn't interested in that.Sununu also called Trump "fucking crazy" at the Gridiron dinner, a journalism event. "Let's stop supporting crazy, unelectable candidates in our primaries and start getting behind winners that can close the deal in November," Sununu said in November at Republican Jewish Coalition meeting.He told the Washington Examiner after the midterms that there should be new GOP leadership — not just in the White House but inside the Republican National Committee."Did they achieve on the level of results that we all thought we were going to get?" he asked. "No. So, why would we stick with the same team assuming we're going to get a better result?"Sununu is part of a political dynasty. His father was governor of New Hampshire who then went on to work in the George H.W. Bush administration as chief of staff. His brother was in the US House and US Senate. Out of the Running: Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger of IllinoisRep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., speaks as the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol holds a hearing in Washington, DC, on July 21, 2022.AP Photo/J. Scott ApplewhiteLike Cheney, Kinzinger, 45, spent much of 2022 focused on the January 6 committee and drawing Trump's ire. He was the only other Republican on the House committee investigating the riot, and retired from his seat at the end of the last Congress, after six terms. Kinzinger told HuffPost in April 2022 that he "would love" to run against Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, but more for the fun of it than to actually win."Even if he crushed me, like in a primary, to be able to stand up and call out the garbage is just a necessary thing, regardless of who it is," he said. "I think it'd be fun."But by January 2023, Kinzinger told CNN's "State of the Union" that he had no intention of running for president. Kinzinger in early 2021 launched his anti-election denier leadership PAC, called Country First. The group launched a nationwide campaign urging voters to reject "extreme" candidates in 2024. Kinzinger sponsored several bills that became law, including measures to prevent opioid addiction and a bill to help veterans with medic training transition to EMT work as civilians. Kinzinger served in the Air Force and remains a pilot in the Air National Guard. Out of the Running: Sen. Josh Hawley of MissouriSenator Josh Hawley (R-MO) speaks during the confirmation hearing for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson on March 22, 2022.JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)Hawley, 43, won't be seeking the presidency in 2024, he told NBC News in November. But the senator has reached for the spotlight whenever possible while Congress is in session.From famously saluting the January 6 protestors on the day of the violent siege at the Capitol to holding Brown Jackson's feet to the fire as she raced to join the Supreme Court, the first-term lawmaker works to portray himself as the perennial outsider who's only here to shake things up. He's played up the part by voting to overturn the 2020 election results on behalf of MAGA vote-magnet Trump, butting heads with McConnell on the way the upper chamber is run, and blaming short-sighted leaders for running the party into the ground. "When your 'agenda' is cave to Big Pharma on insulin, cave to Schumer on gun control & Green New Deal ('infrastructure'), and tease changes to Social Security and Medicare, you lose," Hawley, bemoaned on Twitter following a demoralizing midterms performance by flawed GOP candidates, which he blamed on "Washington Republicanism." The potential 2024 contender followed up with some suggestions, floating an alternative vision he said would help "unrig the system."   "What are Republicans actually going to do for working people? How about, to start: tougher tariffs on China, reshore American jobs, open up American energy full throttle, 100k new cops on the street," Hawley, who was also Missouri's former attorney general, tossed out on his social media feed. Out of the Running: Former Gov. Larry Hogan of MarylandGov. Larry Hogan of Maryland.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesEven before the bruising 2022 midterms, Hogan, 66, was warning that Republicans couldn't continue down the path they are on. "I am not about to give up on the Republican party or America," he wrote on Twitter in early December. "None of us can. It's too important."The two-term governor who survived a 2015 cancer scare has been fired up about plotting his next act. But that next act won't be seeking the presidency. "The stakes are too high for me to risk being part of another multicar pileup that could potentially help Mr. Trump recapture the nomination," Hogan wrote in a guest essay for The New York Times. He elaborated about his thinking in a March 5 interview with CBS News, signaling he wouldn't support Trump or DeSantis — the only Republican who polls near Trump. "Right now, you have Trump and DeSantis at the top of the field, soaking up all the oxygen, getting all the attention, and then a whole lot of the rest of us in single digits," Hogan said on CBS. "And the more of them you have, the less chance you have for somebody rising up."Hogan, a centrist Republican, did explore the possibility of running for president, making the rounds in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. Hogan also scored some face time with GOP mega donors at this year's Republican Jewish Coalition leadership meeting — mentioning to political reporters covering the event that he and other potential 2024 hopefuls were there because "maybe there's a little blood in the water." As governor, Hogan signed a gun control bill into law and has said that while he opposed abortion, he wouldn't move to gut the state's guarantee on reproductive rights. During the COVID-19 pandemic he instituted a statewide mask mandate, then lifted restrictions in May 2021. He billed himself as a "commonsense conservative" who GOP voters sick of losing may want to consider."I think there are 10 people who want to be the next Donald Trump, and I think there may be a different lane," Hogan said while stumping in Manchester, New Hampshire, adding, "I'm going to do everything I can to get the country back on track." He cast a write-in vote for Reagan in the 2020 election and called for Trump to be impeached or resign after January 6. Out of the Running: Former Secretary of State Mike PompeoFormer Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPompeo, 59, bowed out of contention on April 14, telling his social media followers that putting it all on the line now didn't seem prudent. "The time is not right for me and my family," Pompeo wrote in a formal statement. The former Trump administration official turned critic of the embattled former president did, however, leave the door open to giving public service another go in the future. "There remain many more opportunities for which the timing might be more fitting as presidential leadership becomes even more necessary," he teased. Despite his stature as a former Secretary of State and longtime GOP power player, Pompeo barely registered in 2024 polling while out promoting his book "Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love." In April, he polled at 1% in two separate Morning Consult tracking polls, at 1% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, and at 2% in a Leger/Canadian Press Poll, according to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight. He consistently polled in sixth-place or lower in the field.Pompeo represented Kansas in the US Congress and was also a former CIA director under Trump. After the end of the administration, he lost weight, which sparked speculation that he was interested in a White House run.He has openly criticized Biden, including after the president's September speech on protecting democracy. "He essentially said if you're pro-life or you're opposed to a certain set of policies, you're a threat," Pompeo told the New England Council's "Politics and Eggs" breakfast.  Biden, he said at the event, could be summed up as having "woke ideas, weak resolve, and waffling leadership."Trump should not have taken classified documents to Mar-a-Lago, he said, but added that the "raid on Mar-a-Lago was indecent and improper." Pompeo told conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt in November that Trump's announcement wouldn't affect whether he decides to run for president, adding that he'd make a determination in the spring. "We need more seriousness, less noise, and leaders who are looking forward," Pompeo said, "not staring in the rearview mirror claiming victimhood." Out of the Running: Gov. Glenn Youngkin of VirginiaGov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia.AP Photo/Steve Helber, FileYoungkin, 56, bowed out of the 2024 presidential race on May 1, telling attendees at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California that he still had work to do in the Old Dominion. When the Wall Street Journal's Gerard Baker asked Youngkin whether a White House run was in his immediate future, the newly-minted Republican said "No." He added that his near-term goals include preserving GOP control of Virginia's House of Delegates and flipping the state's Democratic-led Senate.  Sticking close to home in the battleground state will give Youngkin a chance to work on playing defense. He tried playing kingmaker in over a dozen 2022 gubernatorial contests and mostly came up short.Youngkin rocketed to stardom in late 2021 by keeping Virginia purplish with his electrifying win over Democratic fixture Terry McAuliffe tried to work that same Trump-light magic into contests all around the country. The result: only four of the 15 Republican gubernatorial candidates Youngkin got involved with won their races. It's unclear whether Youngkin had any effect on the reelection bids of blowout winners like Kemp or Noem.By the same token, it's debatable whether he could have dragged Lake, Michigan's Tudor Dixon, or any of the other 2020 election deniers across the finish line given their full-on embrace of Trumpism. While he remains reluctant to badmouth the embattled former president, Youngkin clinched his 2021 win by keeping Trump at bay while still reaching out to the MAGA base. Trump, on the other hand, has tried to take full credit for Youngkin's win and lashed out at the newcomer for not being more appreciative. Trump's already working on trying to clip a Youngkin presidential bid from ever taking wing, panning him and DeSantis as ingrates who have no chance of beating him. Trump also reverted to his old tricks after the politically damaging 2022 midterms flop, hitting Youngkin with a bizarre, racist rant on Truth Social. Given that Virginia only allows governors to serve non-consecutive terms, it makes sense for Youngkin to seek opportunities elsewhere.The Washington Post reported that Youngkin spent part of his summer huddling with Republican mega donors in New York. And while he remains mum on any official plans for 2024, Politico said Youngkin's putting in place the types of fundraising groups a presidential candidate would want to have at the ready.Youngkin is a former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group. As governor, his first official action was to sign an executive order prohibiting Virginia schools from teaching "critical race theory." More recently, he's been pushing to reimburse individuals and businesses who paid fines for violating state COVID-19 restrictions under his Democratic predecessor.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Four Republicans, including Trump, have made a White House run official, others are considering jumping in, and some have dropped out. Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an event at Mar-a-Lago on November 15, 2022 in Palm Beach, Florida.Joe Raedle/Getty Images Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Asa Hutchinson, and Tim Scott made a '24 GOP run official. Others have been floating the possibility of entering the GOP contest — and some are dropping out. From Pence to DeSantis, here's how Republicans are laying the groundwork for presidential runs. Five Republicans are now running for president in 2024 — at least officially. Embattled former President Donald Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina are the candidates who have so far formally announced a 2024 presidential bid.But plenty of others appear to be toying with the same idea.They're doing all the things they're supposed to do to test their chances: Visiting early primary states, writing books, showing up on the Sunday shows, and weighing in publicly on President Joe Biden's policies — and even Trump's latest controversies. The next step will be hiring teams in Iowa and New Hampshire, Doug Heye, a longtime GOP aide and strategist, told Insider."You have got a stable of people who are essentially putting themselves all in the starting gates and all have their own timetable about when and if they decide to run," he said. Over the next few weeks and months, candidates would be floating what Kristin Davison, vice president and general consultant at Axiom Strategies, called "trial balloons" — in which they publicly raise the prospect of a run to see how donors and the press will react. Whoever seizes the nomination will likely face Biden, who made a run official on April 25. But, Heye said, "it's a real possibility" that the GOP lineup will large.The stakes for losing the nomination aren't all bad, even if Republicans might come out of it with an unforgettable Trump nickname. After all, one of the people running for president could get chosen as the running mate or get a seat on the new president's Cabinet.And there are other perks to formally seeking the White House, such as raising one's profile and having a better shot at the presidency during a future cycle. Candidates could also sell a lot more books or leave politics to get a prime TV or radio show. "It's a long, difficult process," Heye said, "and you're more likely to lose than not."Trump's legal, political, and personal liabilities have been piling up in the last month, leading many in the GOP to say the party needs not just a fresh face but to be led by a candidate who can actually win. Insider identified 15 people who have or could seek the Republican nomination in 2024. Each will have to effectively answer the "why I'm running for president" question and find their lane in the party, which will inevitably include defining — or redefining — their relationship with Trump. "I don't think you can discount any of them at this point," Heye said. "It's too early to determine who outside of Trump is a frontrunner." And others, like newly minted GOP star Glenn Youngkin, 56, are already bowing out of consideration, with Youngkin telling attendees on May 1 at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California that he still had work to do in Virginia. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has also officially declared he's not seeking the nomination, despite releasing a book and rumblings he was considering a run.Scroll through to see the politicians who have either already declared or are potentially gearing up for run — and who has officially decided not to move forward:Sen. Tim Scott of South CarolinaSen. Tim Scott, a Republican of South Carolkina, speaks at a fundraiser in Anderson, South Carolina on August 22, 2022.Meg Kinnard/AP Photo, FileScott, 57, made his run official on May 22. "I am living proof that America is the land of opportunity, not a land of oppression," he said during his formal campaign launch in North Charleston, South Carolina. He'd hinted at a presidential bid during his midterms victory speech, even though he previously said he wouldn't run against Trump. "My grandfather voted for the first man of color to be elected as president of the United States," he said on November 8, referring to the vote his grandfather cast for Obama. "I wish he had lived long enough to see perhaps another man of color elected president of the United States. But this time, let it be a Republican and not just a Democrat. So just know: All things are possible in America."Scott, who previously served in the US House, is the only Black Republican in the Senate. He said his six-year term in the Senate beginning in January would be his last, but he didn't rule out a presidential run. He also released a memoir, "America, a Redemption Story: Choosing Hope, Creating Unity" and is one of the top fundraisers in the Senate — which includes support from small and online donors — even though he defended a safe seat this cycle.Major donors have contributed to Opportunity Matters Fun, a pro-Scott super PAC. In February, he launched a listening tour. Scott was among those leading the push for the successful passage of the bipartisan First Step Act and his measure to create Opportunity Zones that bring private investments into economically distressed communities was part of the 2017 tax reform law. He garnered national interest after delivering the GOP response to Biden's address to Congress in 2021. Afterward, McConnell said the senator represented "the future of the Republican Party." Scott has been open about the racism he has faced over the course of his life. "I get called Uncle Tom and the n-word by progressives, by liberals," he said in response to Biden's address. He has shared that police have pulled him over numerous times, despite him not violating any traffic laws. He sat down with Trump at the White House to discuss systemic racism and publicly called on Trump to call back certain statements he made on race. Haley, who was South Carolina governor at the time, appointed Scott to the Senate in 2013 after the seat opened up. Former UN Ambassador Nikki HaleyFormer UN Ambassador Nikki Haley during a news conference in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday, October 26, 2022.Matt Rourke/AP PhotoHaley, 51, made a run official on February 15. During her campaign launch in Charleston, South Carolina, she portrayed herself as a young leader who could win elections. "If you're tired of losing, put your trust in a new generation," she said. Her experiences in public office give her the coveted pairing of having both executive and foreign policy chops, which are often viewed as crucial to the presidency. Aside from Trump and Pence, few other contenders would have such a profile. As a woman of Indian descent, she could also help bring in suburban women voters who graduated from college and expand the GOP coalition among people of color. She embraced her unique background during her campaign kickoff, wearing suffragette white and and calling herself "a brown girl growing up in a black-and-white world." Haley has had a turnaround from last year, when she said she wouldn't run for president if Trump were to seek the White House in 2024. She started our her career working in the private sector, joining her family's clothing business before leading the National Association of Women Business Owners.She served in the South Carolina House for three terms then was the state's governor for six years. In that time Haley delivered the GOP response to Obama's 2016 State of the Union Address.She pushed for the removal of the confederate flag from the South Carolina capitol after a gunman killed nine Black people at Emanuel Church in Charleston. Also as governor, Haley would not support a bill requiring transgender people to use the restroom that corresponded with the gender on their birth certificate. But in 2021 she wrote a commentary in the National Review saying transgender inclusion in sports was an "attack on women's rights."Haley was UN Ambassador under Trump for two years, and successfully pushed for the US to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem and defended Trump's decision to do so.In 2019 she published a memoir, "With All Due Respect: Defending America with Grit and Grace." Haley campaigned and fundraised in high-profile races during the 2022 midterms, including in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Haley told the National Republican Committee the day after the January 6 riot that Trump was "badly wrong" in his speech to supporters and that his "actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history." Tech entrepreneur Vivek RamaswamyRamaswamy founded the biopharmaceutical company Roivant Sciences.Fox NewsRamaswamy, 37, made his run official on February 22. Ramaswamy is an Indian-American tech entrepreneur who co-founded Strive Asset Management and serves as its executive chairman. He also founded the biopharmaceutical company Roivant Sciences."We're in the midst of a national identity crisis. Faith, patriotism & family are disappearing. We embrace one secular religion after another — from wokeism to climatism — to satisfy our deeper need for meaning," he said in a video announcing his campaign. "Yet we cannot even answer what it means to be an American." —Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) February 22, 2023 Ramaswamy wrote "Woke, Inc.: Inside Corporate America's Social Justice Scam" and "Nation of Victims: Identity Politics, the Death of Merit, and the Path Back to Excellence."The New Yorker nicknamed Ramaswamy the "CEO of Anti-Woke Inc." for his stance against environmental, social, and governance investing.In February, he delivered a speech about ESG at Trump National Doral, near Miami, before the exclusive and influential Council for National Policy at Trump Doral, where DeSantis was also a key speaker. Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of ArkansasArkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson attends the National Governors Association summer meeting, Friday, July 15, 2022, in Portland, Maine.Robert F. Bukaty/AP PhotoHutchinson, 72, threw his hat into the ring on April 2. He told ABC News correspondent Jonathan Karl there would be a full-scale rollout later on in his hometown of Bentonville, Arkansas, but that his mind was made up. "I've traveled the country for six months, I hear people talk about the leadership of our country," Hutchinson said Sunday. "I'm convinced that people want leaders that appeal to the best of America, and not simply appeal to our worst instincts."He also weighed in on Trump's indictment in New York, calling it a "great distraction" that voters need to get past. "We can't set aside what our Constitution requires — which is electing a new leader for our country — just because we have this side controversy and criminal charges that are pending," Hutchinson said, adding, "And so we've got to press on, and the American people are gonna have to separate what the ideas are for our future."Hutchinson hasn't been shy about criticizing Biden or Trump. After Trump's 2024 announcement, he said the former president's "self-indulging message promoting anger has not changed," and also disavowed the Fuentes and Ye meeting at Mar-a-Lago.Hutchinson has taken at least five trips to Iowa through America Strong & Free, the nonprofit of which he's the honorary chairman and spokesperson."I am seriously looking at a run in 2024 because America and the Republican Party are not in the best place," he said in a statement provided to Insider. "I know how to get us back on track both in terms of leadership and facing the challenging issues of border security, increased violent crime, and energy inflation." As governor of Arkansas for eight years, Hutchinson has pushed to make the state a leader in computer science, and signed several tax cuts into law, including lowering the state income tax rate from 7% to 4.9%. Hutchinson also signed bills into law blocking businesses from requiring customers and workers to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination and blocked state and local officials from obligating masks — a move he later said he regretted. He asked state lawmakers to create a carve-out for schools, but the Arkansas House rejected the proposal. While he signed an abortion ban into law in 2019 that took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, he said on CNN that he personally believes in exceptions for rape and incest."Many out there appreciate a 'consistent conservative,' even one they don't agree with all the time," Hutchinson told Insider. "I am not interested in the 'outrage of the day,' and I am committed to using my consistent conservative principles to guide me and our nation on important policy decisions." Hutchinson began his government career as a US attorney for the Western District of Arkansas under President Ronald Reagan, then went on to serve in the US House for three terms. President George W. Bush tapped him to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration, after which he served as undersecretary in the Department of Homeland Security. He has criticized Biden on illegal immigration, inflation, and student-loan forgiveness. He said on CNN that the president's September speech about "MAGA Republicans" and democracy "singled out a segment of Americans and said basically they're our enemy."Hutchinson also has the distinction of being especially press friendly at a time when numerous Republicans have copied Trump's style of lashing out against journalists. "The media plays an important role in our democracy," Hutchinson told Insider. "I've never shied away from tough questions, and I have always been willing to defend my positions and conservative principles with the hard questions coming from the press."Former Rep. Liz Cheney of WyomingRep. Liz Cheney, a Republican of Wyoming, campaigned with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat of Michigan, at an Evening for Patriotism and Bipartisanship event on November 1, 2022 in East Lansing, Michigan.Bill Pugliano/Getty ImagesCheney, 56, is the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney and one of Trump's toughest Republican critics.She voted to impeach Trump after the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, and served as vice chair of the House select committee investigating Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.Cheney's actions have come at a cost under the heavy weight of Trump's ire. House Republicans punished her by stripping her of her leadership post, and she lost her US House seat to Trump-backed GOP challenger Harriet Hageman during the state's August primary.But she hasn't been deterred. Cheney said on NBC's "Today" that she would do "whatever it takes" to keep Trump out of the White House in 2024, including "thinking about" running for president herself. "I wouldn't be surprised to see her run for president," Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah told Insider in August. Cheney voted with Trump on policy when he was in office, and remains a conservative, telling the Reagan Foundation and Institute in June 2022 that she believes "deeply in the policies of limited government, of low taxes, of a strong national defense." But Cheney said she sees a breaking point with the Republican Party, telling the Texas Tribune Festival in September that she would leave the GOP if Trump became the 2024 nominee.This could mean she'd run for president as an Independent. Already, she has shown she's willing to campaign against Republicans who falsely deny that Biden won the 2020 presidential election.In 2022, Cheney converted her House campaign finance committee into an anti-election denier leadership PAC called The Great Task. The PAC spent $500,000 on a TV ad in Arizona that urged voters to reject Republicans Kari Lake and Mark Finchem, who were running for governor and secretary of state, respectively. During the 2022 midterms, Cheney endorsed incumbent Democratic Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia. Both won their races. "We had to make sure that we prevented election deniers from taking power," she told The Washington Post's Global Women's Summit in November. Many outsiders see long odds for Cheney, though a poll conducted in Utah found she could be a top contender there. Sen. Ted Cruz of TexasSen. Ted Cruz, a Republican of Texas, speaks at a rally for Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker on November 10, 2022 in Canton, Georgia.Megan Varner/Getty ImagesCruz, 52, was the last Republican standing against Trump during the 2016 presidential nomination and had even announced that he'd pick former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina as his running mate. But Cruz — whom Trump nicknamed "Lyin' Ted" — lost following a nasty primary in which Trump levied highly personal attacks against the senator, including disparaging his wife's looks and falsely suggesting that Cruz's father had something to do with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Once Trump was in office, however, Cruz was one of the president's  biggest defenders. He voted to overturn the 2020 election results in Arizona and Pennsylvania and helped to secure Trump's acquittal in his second impeachment trial. In recent months, Cruz has been spending time in New Hampshire and during the midterms campaigned with retired football star Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff. While in the Senate, Cruz led the successful effort to zero out the unpopular fine on the uninsured created by the Affordable Care Act.More recently, Cruz used Ketanji Brown Jackson's Supreme Court confirmation hearing to score points for a potential 2024 run, questioning her about school curriculum on race. Before coming to Congress, Cruz was solicitor general in Texas, a role that involves arguing cases before the Supreme Court. When Insider asked whether Trump's latest missteps had provided an opening for him to jump into the 2024 presidential race, Cruz chuckled a bit before laying out what sounded like a near-term agenda. "I think the Senate is the battleground … and I'm going to do everything I can to lead the fight right here," Cruz told Insider before launching into a tirade about his mounting frustration with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's decision making. He made no specific mention of 2024, but also didn't work in the word "no" anywhere.Cruz told the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas that he'll seek reelection in Texas in 2024 when his term is up, though state law allows him to run for both offices at the same time.Former Gov. Chris Christie of New JerseyFormer New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition Saturday, November 19, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoChristie, 60, is famously said to have missed his moment for the White House because he didn't run for president when he was getting a lot of attention as New Jersey's governor in 2012, and instead fizzled out in 2016 when faced with Trump and numerous other contenders. But that hasn't stopped him from weighing another go at it. In October, during an appearance on "Real Time with Bill Maher," Christie confirmed that he was considering a 2024 run. Now, New Hampshire Today says an announcement is imminent.Christie wrote a book in 2021, titled "Republican Rescue: Saving the Party From Truth Deniers, Conspiracy Theorists, and the Dangerous Policies of Joe Biden." He served two terms as a Republican governor in a blue state where Democrats controlled the legislature. In that role, he expanded Medicaid under Obamacare and passed bail reform.But he got flak over a handshake with then-President Barack Obama during Hurricane Sandy relief efforts, and was hurt politically after members of his administration created traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge.Christie became a lobbyist in 2020, when he had several healthcare clients but cut ties a year later, according to the lobbying disclosure database, in what could be a sign that he's lining up for a run.   Today, Christie blames Trump for the GOP's losses the last three election cycles and spent months saying Republicans "have to be the party of tomorrow, not the party of yesterday" if they ever want to win another election. His tone on Trump is a stunning turnaround for a man who was one of Trump's closest outside advisors when he was in the White House and was even on the shortlist to be Trump's chief of staff. Christie turned on Trump after January 6, saying the president violated his oath of office. He told The New York Times that Trump's candidacy was "untenable" and that the former president had had "poor judgement" after he dined at Mar-a-Lago with white supremacist and Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes. He also told the Washington Examiner that Republicans "fail the leadership test" when they don't call out Trump. Gov. Ron DeSantis of FloridaRepublican gubernatorial candidate for Florida Ron DeSantis speaks during an election night watch party at the Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on November 8, 2022.Giorgio VIERA / AFP via Getty ImagesDeSantis, 44, has an enviable mantle for the presidency in the Florida governor's office — and he's making the most of it. He famously and unapologetically reopened Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic, before federal health officials said he should. He banned certain teachings on race in workplaces and schools, and flew unsuspecting migrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. DeSantis also signed a contentious parental involvement and sex ed bill into law that critics call "Don't Say Gay." Instead of backing down over the outcry, he worked to punish Disney for threatening to repeal it and then expanded the law. Then there were the historic tax cuts in Florida with promises of more as well as viral videos bashing what he calls the "corporate media." All of these actions have portrayed the governor as a fighter. That's not the only part of his public persona on display. Often in tow is his beautiful, young family. His former newscaster wife, Florida's first lady Casey DeSantis, has been instrumental in his rise. To the New York Post, pictures of the DeSantis family on Election Night was "DeFuture." Others see a conservative JFK. But the politician DeSantis most often gets compared to is Trump. Numerous news profiles have described DeSantis as "Trump without the baggage," or as a more disciplined Trump. Yet after leaning on Trump during his first gubernatorial victory in 2018, DeSantis showed he could win big on his own, scoring a historic, 20-point victory in Florida in November without Trump's endorsement.DeSantis was also out with his first memoir in February: "The Courage to Be Free: Florida's Blueprint for America's Revival." During the midterms, he extended goodwill to other Republicans by campaigning with them. Back at home, he raked in a record amount of cash for a gubernatorial race. If the GOP primary were decided today, numerous polls show, DeSantis is the only person that gets close to Trump. He's expected to launch his bid this week. Through it all, Trump has nicknamed DeSantis "Ron DeSanctimonious" and threatened to release damaging information about the governor. South Dakota Gov. Kristi NoemSouth Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, Texas, on July 11, 2021.Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesNoem, 51, has been on a Trump-related roller coaster ride as of late. In January 2021, the embattled former president tried to get her to primary fellow South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a lawmaker Trump took to calling a RINO (which stands for "Republican in name only") after Thune balked at his baseless claims of election fraud. Noem bowed out of joining Trump's revenge campaign, opting to focus on her own re-election plans. Once 2022 rolled around, she leaned hard into the GOP culture wars, promising voters that she'd bar transgender athletes from participating in women's sports, stamp out any "critical race theory" instruction in local schools, and decimate any "radical political ideologies" that annoyed her evangelical Christian base.Come July, Noem told CNN she'd be "shocked" if Trump tapped her to be his 2024 running mate. But she didn't rule out sliding into the VP slot — or mounting a challenge of her own. Since winning a second term in November, Noem has started taking on bigger foes, including the People's Republic of China. —Kristi Noem (@KristiNoem) November 30, 2022 Her state government-wide ban against the use of social media app TikTok scored her fawning interviews on conservative outlets including Fox News and Newsmax, beaming her into the homes of potential admirers who don't happen to reside in the Mount Rushmore State. Noem seems far less enthusiastic about Trump these days, telling reporters that the twice-impeached, scandal-plagued former president isn't Republicans' "best chance" at retaking the White House in 2024. She issued this prediction just days after Trump announced he was running again.  Former Vice President Mike PenceFormer Vice President Mike Pence speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition on Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPence, 63, has been distancing himself from his former boss, while also promoting his new book, "So Help Me God." He told ABC's "World News Tonight" that Trump "decided to be part of the problem" by not immediately calling off the insurrectionists during the January 6 riot, after he declined to help invalidate Biden's lawful win. Pence also pushed back against Trump on WVOC in South Carolina after he called for terminating the Constitution, and came out forcefully after Trump had dinner with Fuentes."President Trump was wrong to give a white nationalist, an anti-Semite, and a Holocaust denier a seat at the table," he said on November 28. An adviser to the former vice president told Insider that, should Pence decide to run, the team has discussed several policy areas to differentiate himself, including Trump's bipartisan criminal justice reform bill, the First Step Act, and that he'll continue to be "very outspoken on the issue of life."Pence wouldn't have to worry about name ID during a presidential run. Still, his new book and a campaign would allow him to reintroduce himself to voters by talking about his work in the US House and then as governor of Indiana. He already has made numerous trips to early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina. Further, he'll be able to amplify policies that carried his fingerprints during the Trump administration, including his oversight of the US's pandemic response.Pence was a sought-after midterm surrogate, traveling to dozens of states. In May, he went to Georgia to help incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp beat Trump-backed primary challenger David Perdue.Pence's vision for the future of the party is laid out in his Freedom Agenda and Advancing American Freedom, the nonprofit aligned with him that serves as a type of campaign in waiting. The policies include reducing mail-in voting and implementing universal school choice, which allows public education funds to pay for K-12 students to select alternatives to public schools. While Pence didn't testify before the January 6 select committee, his senior aides including former chief of staff Marc Short and legal advisor J. Michael Luttig walked investigators through some of the scenarios that led up to the attack. In November, Pence said on Fox's "Hannity" that he would make a 2024 decision after discussing it with his family during the holidays. Sen. Marco Rubio of FloridaWilfredo Lee/AP PhotoRubio, 51, has come out hot after cruising to a third term in November, castigating GOP leaders for totally blowing the midterms. "We have a historically unpopular Dem President, record inflation, a violent crime wave & total chaos at the border & not only did we fail to win a majority, we lost a seat. And the Senate GOP response is going to be to make no changes?" Rubio fumed in a December 7 Twitter post. His anger hadn't abated when Insider caught up with him at the US Capitol. "I don't know how you come back from what we have just encountered and conclude that the status quo and business as usual is how we want to proceed," Rubio said of the need for drastic changes within the GOP. While conceding that he doesn't have "all those answers," Rubio suggested that Senate Republicans take a hard look at "the mechanics of elections, policy, the legislative agenda, and all of that." "I think that's something we should all be involved in talking about," Rubio said of the sorely needed soul searching. Rubio, who is of Cuban descent, was speaker of the Florida House before heading to Washington. He has sponsored numerous bills that have become law, including doubling the child tax credit and co-authoring the Paycheck Protection Program that helped keep small businesses afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.On top of that, he's got a powerful perch as the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee. Political operatives have credited him with helping the GOP grow its influence with Hispanic voters, NBC News reported. Asked by Insider whether he had it in him to take another run at the former president after getting clobbered by the insult-flinging Trump in 2016, Rubio said he just really needs to take a breath. "We'll have time over the holidays and into the new year to sort of focus on everything going on in my life and here in the Senate," Rubio told Insider, adding that he hasn't "really focused in on" returning to the presidential proving grounds at the moment. Perhaps voters will learn more about future plans in his forthcoming book, "Decades of Decadence." Miami Mayor Francis SuarezTaylor Hill / Contributor Getty ImagesSuarez, 45, confirmed in October that he's considering a presidential run. By March, he was still deciding, he told the Miami Herald. "It's something that I would consider given the right circumstances and given the right mood of the country," Suarez said at a Punchbowl News event in October. Miami has been getting a lot of attention given the surge of people moving to Florida — and tech companies and crypto startups in particular headed to Miami under Suarez's encouragement. He even told Twitter CEO Elon Musk that he should consider relocating the company's headquarters from San Francisco.Suarez's office sent over a list of accomplishments for the mayor, saying the city was No. 1 in job and wage growth, and had 1.4% unemployment. The Financial Times called Miami "the most important city in America." The mayor made historic increases to the city's police department, increased funding on climate-resistant infrastructure, and passed a rental tax credit for seniors. Suarez didn't vote for Trump during the 2020 election and in the 2018 gubernatorial race in Florida he voted for Democrat Andrew Gillum over DeSantis. He did flip in 2022, voting for DeSantis for reelection, he told Insider. Suarez said Trump has been kind to him. The two spoke at a wedding recently, he said, and Trump told him he was the "hottest politician in America after him.""I don't know if he meant physically hot or if he meant I was getting a lot of buzz," Suarez said. "But he was very nice." Suarez is of Cuban descent and leads the National Conference of Mayors. When asked about how he might stand out in a presidential race, Suarez said he might be able to speak to "a variety of minority communities that are going to be important if Republicans want to grow their base for a generation." Gov. Chris Sununu of New HampshireGov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire.Jon Cherry/Getty Images for ConcordiaSununu, 48, was just reelected to a fourth term in New Hampshire, where governors are reelected every two years and there are no term limits. There's a "61 percent chance" he runs for president, he told Puck last week. Sununu is a centrist Republican who has the distinction of being in favor of abortion rights, at a time when many states are banning abortion. He came close to running for the US Senate in 2022, but told the Washington Examiner that other senators told him their main job was to be a "roadblock" in office — and he wasn't interested in that.Sununu also called Trump "fucking crazy" at the Gridiron dinner, a journalism event. "Let's stop supporting crazy, unelectable candidates in our primaries and start getting behind winners that can close the deal in November," Sununu said in November at Republican Jewish Coalition meeting.He told the Washington Examiner after the midterms that there should be new GOP leadership — not just in the White House but inside the Republican National Committee."Did they achieve on the level of results that we all thought we were going to get?" he asked. "No. So, why would we stick with the same team assuming we're going to get a better result?"Sununu is part of a political dynasty. His father was governor of New Hampshire who then went on to work in the George H.W. Bush administration as chief of staff. His brother was in the US House and US Senate. Out of the Running: Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger of IllinoisRep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., speaks as the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol holds a hearing in Washington, DC, on July 21, 2022.AP Photo/J. Scott ApplewhiteLike Cheney, Kinzinger, 45, spent much of 2022 focused on the January 6 committee and drawing Trump's ire. He was the only other Republican on the House committee investigating the riot, and retired from his seat at the end of the last Congress, after six terms. Kinzinger told HuffPost in April 2022 that he "would love" to run against Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, but more for the fun of it than to actually win."Even if he crushed me, like in a primary, to be able to stand up and call out the garbage is just a necessary thing, regardless of who it is," he said. "I think it'd be fun."But by January 2023, Kinzinger told CNN's "State of the Union" that he had no intention of running for president. Kinzinger in early 2021 launched his anti-election denier leadership PAC, called Country First. The group launched a nationwide campaign urging voters to reject "extreme" candidates in 2024. Kinzinger sponsored several bills that became law, including measures to prevent opioid addiction and a bill to help veterans with medic training transition to EMT work as civilians. Kinzinger served in the Air Force and remains a pilot in the Air National Guard. Out of the Running: Sen. Josh Hawley of MissouriSenator Josh Hawley (R-MO) speaks during the confirmation hearing for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson on March 22, 2022.JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)Hawley, 43, won't be seeking the presidency in 2024, he told NBC News in November. But the senator has reached for the spotlight whenever possible while Congress is in session.From famously saluting the January 6 protestors on the day of the violent siege at the Capitol to holding Brown Jackson's feet to the fire as she raced to join the Supreme Court, the first-term lawmaker works to portray himself as the perennial outsider who's only here to shake things up. He's played up the part by voting to overturn the 2020 election results on behalf of MAGA vote-magnet Trump, butting heads with McConnell on the way the upper chamber is run, and blaming short-sighted leaders for running the party into the ground. "When your 'agenda' is cave to Big Pharma on insulin, cave to Schumer on gun control & Green New Deal ('infrastructure'), and tease changes to Social Security and Medicare, you lose," Hawley, bemoaned on Twitter following a demoralizing midterms performance by flawed GOP candidates, which he blamed on "Washington Republicanism." The potential 2024 contender followed up with some suggestions, floating an alternative vision he said would help "unrig the system."   "What are Republicans actually going to do for working people? How about, to start: tougher tariffs on China, reshore American jobs, open up American energy full throttle, 100k new cops on the street," Hawley, who was also Missouri's former attorney general, tossed out on his social media feed. Out of the Running: Former Gov. Larry Hogan of MarylandGov. Larry Hogan of Maryland.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesEven before the bruising 2022 midterms, Hogan, 66, was warning that Republicans couldn't continue down the path they are on. "I am not about to give up on the Republican party or America," he wrote on Twitter in early December. "None of us can. It's too important."The two-term governor who survived a 2015 cancer scare has been fired up about plotting his next act. But that next act won't be seeking the presidency. "The stakes are too high for me to risk being part of another multicar pileup that could potentially help Mr. Trump recapture the nomination," Hogan wrote in a guest essay for The New York Times. He elaborated about his thinking in a March 5 interview with CBS News, signaling he wouldn't support Trump or DeSantis — the only Republican who polls near Trump. "Right now, you have Trump and DeSantis at the top of the field, soaking up all the oxygen, getting all the attention, and then a whole lot of the rest of us in single digits," Hogan said on CBS. "And the more of them you have, the less chance you have for somebody rising up."Hogan, a centrist Republican, did explore the possibility of running for president, making the rounds in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. Hogan also scored some face time with GOP mega donors at this year's Republican Jewish Coalition leadership meeting — mentioning to political reporters covering the event that he and other potential 2024 hopefuls were there because "maybe there's a little blood in the water." As governor, Hogan signed a gun control bill into law and has said that while he opposed abortion, he wouldn't move to gut the state's guarantee on reproductive rights. During the COVID-19 pandemic he instituted a statewide mask mandate, then lifted restrictions in May 2021. He billed himself as a "commonsense conservative" who GOP voters sick of losing may want to consider."I think there are 10 people who want to be the next Donald Trump, and I think there may be a different lane," Hogan said while stumping in Manchester, New Hampshire, adding, "I'm going to do everything I can to get the country back on track." He cast a write-in vote for Reagan in the 2020 election and called for Trump to be impeached or resign after January 6. Out of the Running: Former Secretary of State Mike PompeoFormer Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPompeo, 59, bowed out of contention on April 14, telling his social media followers that putting it all on the line now didn't seem prudent. "The time is not right for me and my family," Pompeo wrote in a formal statement. The former Trump administration official turned critic of the embattled former president did, however, leave the door open to giving public service another go in the future. "There remain many more opportunities for which the timing might be more fitting as presidential leadership becomes even more necessary," he teased. Despite his stature as a former Secretary of State and longtime GOP power player, Pompeo barely registered in 2024 polling while out promoting his book "Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love." In April, he polled at 1% in two separate Morning Consult tracking polls, at 1% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, and at 2% in a Leger/Canadian Press Poll, according to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight. He consistently polled in sixth-place or lower in the field.Pompeo represented Kansas in the US Congress and was also a former CIA director under Trump. After the end of the administration, he lost weight, which sparked speculation that he was interested in a White House run.He has openly criticized Biden, including after the president's September speech on protecting democracy. "He essentially said if you're pro-life or you're opposed to a certain set of policies, you're a threat," Pompeo told the New England Council's "Politics and Eggs" breakfast.  Biden, he said at the event, could be summed up as having "woke ideas, weak resolve, and waffling leadership."Trump should not have taken classified documents to Mar-a-Lago, he said, but added that the "raid on Mar-a-Lago was indecent and improper." Pompeo told conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt in November that Trump's announcement wouldn't affect whether he decides to run for president, adding that he'd make a determination in the spring. "We need more seriousness, less noise, and leaders who are looking forward," Pompeo said, "not staring in the rearview mirror claiming victimhood." Out of the Running: Gov. Glenn Youngkin of VirginiaGov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia.AP Photo/Steve Helber, FileYoungkin, 56, bowed out of the 2024 presidential race on May 1, telling attendees at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California that he still had work to do in the Old Dominion. When the Wall Street Journal's Gerard Baker asked Youngkin whether a White House run was in his immediate future, the newly-minted Republican said "No." He added that his near-term goals include preserving GOP control of Virginia's House of Delegates and flipping the state's Democratic-led Senate.  Sticking close to home in the battleground state will give Youngkin a chance to work on playing defense. He tried playing kingmaker in over a dozen 2022 gubernatorial contests and mostly came up short.Youngkin rocketed to stardom in late 2021 by keeping Virginia purplish with his electrifying win over Democratic fixture Terry McAuliffe tried to work that same Trump-light magic into contests all around the country. The result: only four of the 15 Republican gubernatorial candidates Youngkin got involved with won their races. It's unclear whether Youngkin had any effect on the reelection bids of blowout winners like Kemp or Noem.By the same token, it's debatable whether he could have dragged Lake, Michigan's Tudor Dixon, or any of the other 2020 election deniers across the finish line given their full-on embrace of Trumpism. While he remains reluctant to badmouth the embattled former president, Youngkin clinched his 2021 win by keeping Trump at bay while still reaching out to the MAGA base. Trump, on the other hand, has tried to take full credit for Youngkin's win and lashed out at the newcomer for not being more appreciative. Trump's already working on trying to clip a Youngkin presidential bid from ever taking wing, panning him and DeSantis as ingrates who have no chance of beating him. Trump also reverted to his old tricks after the politically damaging 2022 midterms flop, hitting Youngkin with a bizarre, racist rant on Truth Social. Given that Virginia only allows governors to serve non-consecutive terms, it makes sense for Youngkin to seek opportunities elsewhere.The Washington Post reported that Youngkin spent part of his summer huddling with Republican mega donors in New York. And while he remains mum on any official plans for 2024, Politico said Youngkin's putting in place the types of fundraising groups a presidential candidate would want to have at the ready.Youngkin is a former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group. As governor, his first official action was to sign an executive order prohibiting Virginia schools from teaching "critical race theory." More recently, he's been pushing to reimburse individuals and businesses who paid fines for violating state COVID-19 restrictions under his Democratic predecessor.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Futures Violently Unchanged As Busiest Week Of Earnings Season Begins In what is shaping up as yet another unchanged open, futures are set up to open violently unchanged after earlier sliding as much as 0.6% following lackluster sentiment in Asia, but a reversal during European trading. Investors are bracing for a barrage of earnings ahead of the busiest reporting weak in Q1 earnings season which sees the likes of MSFT, GOOGL, Meta, AMZN and XOM all set to report amid rising interest rates and economic slowdown worries. S&P 500 contracts fell as much as 0.6% before paring the drop to unchanged as of 7:30 a.m. ET while futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 benchmark were 0.1% lower. In premarket trading, Bed Bath & Beyond sank as much as 52% after the home-goods retailer filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate and wind down by the end of June. BuzzFeed fell 6% in US premarket trading, extending a 30% drop last week triggered by the company’s move to shut its news operation. The now defunct Credit Suisse reported $69 billion outflows in the first quarter and a large writedown at its wealth management unit. Coca-Cola is due to report results before the market opens, while Whirlpool and First Republic Bank will update this afternoon. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Crinetics Pharmaceuticals is initiated with an overweight rating at Piper Sandler, with the broker saying that the disease acromegaly could be a potential blockbuster market opportunity for the biotech. Tremor has been downgraded to hold at Stifel, which says it would like to see the digital advertising firm spending more on research and development to keep up with larger platforms. The brokerage also cut its rating on sector peer Perion to hold from buy. Investors are bracing for a slew of economic data and big-tech earnings for insights into the damage from higher borrowing costs and slowing economy. Leveraged investors boosted net short positions on 10-year Treasury futures to a record 1.29 million contracts as of April 18, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. That’s an indication they think the Federal Reserve will keep raising rates to tackle inflation. A “mild recession” is likely in the US and that’s a reason to be more selective in the equity space, according to Laura Cooper, a senior investment strategist at BlackRock. “We think earnings estimates for the back half of the year in the US remain too optimistic,” she said. “We suspect that a lot of the rate cuts priced in toward the end of the year for the Fed have scope to be priced out.” Swaps markets continue to see Fed rates peaking in coming weeks before a series of cuts later this year. US GDP data is forecast to reveal slowing growth, while the so-called core PCE deflator, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to show price growth cooled. “We should take the Fed at face value when they say rates are not going lower this year,” said Kieran Calder, head of equity research for Asia at Union Bancaire Privée in Singapore, on Bloomberg Television. “Inflation, especially core inflation, remains really sticky.” A rally in US stocks leading up to this earnings season presents a near-term risk to equities given the prospect of further Fed rate hikes and fading profit growth, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson. “We think this dynamic poses a near-term risk for stock prices given our more pessimistic outlook for earnings this year, especially as the liquidity picture becomes less accommodative,” Wilson wrote in a note on Monday, repeating his now traditional weekly sermon. European stocks are little changed as investors await another busy week of corporate earnings. The Stoxx 600 is flat with food & beverages, telecoms and energy the worst performing sectors. Here are the biggest European movers: Philips shares gain as much as 10% after an easing in supply chain snarl-ups helped drive a strong 1Q beat for the Dutch medtech. Morgan Stanley expects consensus estimates to rise after the report. Software AG shares jump as much as 50% to trade at the €30 level offered by private equity firm Silver Lake Management to acquire the German software company. Munters shares jump as much as 9.7% as the Swedish ventilation systems company was upgraded to buy at both Carnegie and Jefferies, with the former seeing early signs of improvement. Casino shares rise as much as 6% after Czech investor Daniel Kretinsky proposed a €1.1 billion equity investment in the French grocer. Getlink shares advance as much as 4.2% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the transport infrastructure group to buy from neutral on supportive power and carbon-price dynamics. Dunelm gains as much as 3% after being raised to buy from hold at Stifel, with the broker seeing an attractive medium-term opportunity in the UK homewares retailer. Wizz Air gains as much as 4.1%, outperforming other airline stocks, after Citi upgraded the stock to neutral, saying investors’ focus for short-haul airlines will shift to costs, where Wizz is showing improvement. Heineken gains as much as 1.4% after Deutsche Bank raised its price target for the Dutch brewer, saying it offers a “compelling” 10% operating profit growth story for fiscal 2025-2027. Avanza shares drop as much as 9.9%, with Citi saying net interest income for the Swedish online stockbroker missed expectations. Elmos Semiconductor falls as much as 7.6% after being downgraded to hold from buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser, as an expected strong first-quarter report appears to be fully priced into shares. Earlier in the session, Asian stock markets was modestly lower at the start of the busiest week of the earnings season in the region, with shares in China and South Korea among the biggest decliners. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.5%, with tech and materials shares weighing the most on the gauge. Chinese stocks posted their biggest two-day loss this year as geopolitical tensions and signs of an uneven recovery spurred traders to pare exposure ahead of the Golden Week holiday. “One part of the reopening of China that we are concerned about is it’s also a reopening of geopolitical risks,” said Kieran Calder, head of equity research for Asia at Union Bancaire Privee. “Issues like this make it much harder to be outright overweight on China,” he told Bloomberg Television. In contrast, benchmarks in Japan and India climbed. The Nikkei 225 rose past its previous 2023 closing high ahead of new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s debut policy decision on Friday.  This will be the busiest week in the latest Asian earnings season, with more than 800 companies scheduled to report results, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. China’s largest company Kweichow Moutai, the country’s biggest banks, Korean chipmaker Samsung Electronics and Indonesian ride-hailing firm GoTo Group are among the major companies set to announce earnings. Meanwhile, traders will also keenly watch Big Tech earnings out stateside this week to inform their exposure to the tech sector. “It really is the longer, medium term demand story that we want to get our heads around,” Calder said. The MSCI Asia gauge is down almost 6% from a peak hit in early January, trailing the S&P 500 on a year-to-date basis, as investors assess the outlook for the heavyweight chip sector and a rebound in Chinese consumption. Markets in Indonesia and Malaysia were closed for a holiday Japanese stocks edged higher in thin trading, as investor sentiment on the global economy was lifted by data showing increased US and European business activity ahead of heavy earnings reporting later this week.  The Topix rose 0.1% to close at 2,037.34, while the Nikkei advanced 0.1% to 28,593.52. Daiichi Sankyo contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 1.5%. Out of 2,158 stocks in the index, 1,325 rose and 715 fell, while 118 were unchanged. “There is a lack of direction ahead of corporate earnings announcements and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting coming up,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, a senior strategist at Asset Management One. The new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold his first policy meeting later this week. The central bank is planning to review and inspect policies taken over the past decades as soon as this week’s meeting, Sankei newspaper reported Sunday. Australian stocks edged lower dragged by materials and energy shares as investors assess quarterly production reports. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.1% to 7,322.00. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.8% to 12,026.39. Indian markets advanced for the third consecutive session, led by gains in financials as top lenders continued to report earnings in line with consensus estimates. ICICI Bank and IndusInd Bank were the latest to report March quarter numbers that matched analysts’ expectations, helped by robust demand for loans. Still, the lenders face the challenge of raising deposits to match the credit growth. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.7% to 60,056.10 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.7%. The gauges are up an average of 2% each this month and close to erasing their losses for the year.  In FX, The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%, reversing an earlier loss. The Swiss franc is the best performer among the G-10 currencies, rising 0.4% versus the greenback. The yen lagged peers. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said at the parliament that the central bank is not at the stage to talk about how to normalize yield curve control. US GDP data is forecast to reveal slowing growth, while the so-called core PCE deflator, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to 0.3% growth on a monthly basis. The Fed is due to decide on its policy rate next week. Data Monday showed Germany’s business outlook unexpectedly improved for a sixth month as the economy gradually recovers from the energy shock. The euro zone probably resumed growth in the first quarter as all four of its biggest economies proved resilient enough to shake off the fallout from war on the region’s frontier. Treasuries have added to gains seen during Asian trading hours with 10-year yields down 4bps at 3.54%. German 10-year yields are flat while the UK equivalent rises 2bps. In commodities, crude futures decline with WTI down 0.3% to trade near $77.60. Spot gold gains 0.1% to around $1,985. Bitcoin is unchanged on the session, towards the lower-end of USD 27.99-27.14k parameters with pertinent macro updates somewhat limited in the European morning. Finally, turning to commodity markets. After four consecutive weeks of gains, crude oil retreated as data releases earlier in the week highlighted growing headwinds for the US economy. WTI crude fell -5.63% week-on-week, although regained ground on Friday following the PMI beat, climbing +0.75% to $77.87/bbl. Similarly, Brent crude broke its streak to finish down -5.39% week-on-week (+0.69% on Friday) to $81.66/bbl. On today's calendar, we get the April Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, and March Chicago Fed national activity index, Germany April ifo survey. A busy week for earnings will include The Cocal Cola Co., First Republic Bank and First Citizens Bank, the acquirer of Silicon Valley Bank. Tech companies will also be in the spotlight with those to report including Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 4,153.50 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 468.62 MXAP down 0.2% to 160.83 MXAPJ down 0.4% to 516.19 Nikkei up 0.1% to 28,593.52 Topix up 0.1% to 2,037.34 Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 19,959.94 Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,275.41 Sensex up 0.5% to 59,957.80 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 7,321.99 Kospi down 0.8% to 2,523.50 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.47% Euro little changed at $1.0992 Brent Futures down 0.2% to $81.50/bbl Brent Futures down 0.2% to $81.49/bbl Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,981.82 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 101.74 Top overnight News from Bloomberg Growing concerns that China may be facing a new Covid wave fueled a surge in shares of the nation’s drugmakers Monday as the public fretted over waning immunity. Xinxiang Tuoxin Pharmaceutical Co. jumped as much as 20% in Shenzhen, while Hybio Pharmaceutical Co. rallied 15%. BBG Chinese consumers continue to demonstrate a willingness to spend money, w/travel bookings for the May Day holiday exceeding pre-pandemic levels. SCMP Ukraine’s state energy company, Naftogaz, is holding talks w/US energy firms like Exxon, Chevron, and Halliburton about dramatically ramping gas production as the country aims to replace Russia as the primary supplier into Europe. FT Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday that if the G7 moved to ban exports to Russia, Moscow would respond by terminating the Black Sea Grain deal that enables vital exports of grain from Ukraine. RTRS ECB’s Pierre Wunsch warns that markets are underestimating how high rates will rise in the Eurozone (he said the tightening process will only stop once wage growth begins to fall). FT Fed’s index of common inflation expectations fell in Q1 to the lowest level in nearly two years, the latest example of disinflationary forces building throughout the economy. BBG The GOP is more serious than people realize about allowing a debt ceiling breach to occur. McCarthy won’t have enough support within the House GOP caucus to pass his debt ceiling bill in the coming week. WaPo / BBG Bed Bath & Beyond filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and said it would eventually close all its 360 Bed Bath & Beyond and 120 Buybuy Baby locations. WSJ Moody’s downgraded 11 regional lenders, suggesting higher interest rates and recent bank failures have ushered in greater instability. The downgrades hit lenders including U.S. Bancorp, Zions Bancorp, Bank of Hawaii, Western Alliance Bancorp, First Republic Bank, Associated Banc-Corp., Comerica Inc., First Hawaiian Inc., Intrust Financial Corp, Washington Federal Inc. and UMB Financial Corp. WSJ Homebuilders appear to offer a particularly poor risk/reward. Homebuilding fundamentals have inflected higher from low levels in recent months. The NAHB Homebuilder Index has rebounded from its trough level of 31 in December to 45 in April. Housing starts and building permits have also increased from trough levels. Building material costs, which were a headwind to homebuilders in 2020- 21, have also declined. However, the equity market has already priced an improvement, and GS mortgage strategists forecast that residential mortgage rates – a key variable in housing demand – will finish the year at 6.5%, suggesting valuation downside risks for the group A more detailed market snapshot courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks were mixed after the lack of macro drivers over the weekend and as participants brace for this week’s key events including big US tech earnings and the first BoJ meeting under Governor Ueda’s leadership. ASX 200 was lacklustre as gains in tech and defensives were offset by underperformance in the mining-related industries  with notable losses in Fortescue Metals and South32 after weaker quarterly output updates. Nikkei 225 eked slight gains after source reports that the BoJ is likely to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy and dovish guidance, while it was also reported the BoJ is considering a comprehensive review of the impact of the monetary easing taken over the longer term and are planning to examine a quarter century of deflation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued despite the PBoC’s liquidity efforts and the announcement of policies to support trade by China’s Vice Commerce Minister who also noted that uncertainty in external demand remains the biggest restraint for China’s trade, while frictions lingered with the US reported to have urged South Korea not to fill China’s shortfalls if Beijing bans Micron chips. Top Asian News PBoC injected CNY 89bln via 7-day reverse repos on Sunday with the rate kept at 2.00% and it injected CNY 115bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% on Monday. PBoC official said China’s yuan has a solid foundation to remain stable and the PBoC will improve the floating exchange rate system based on market demand and supply, according to Reuters. One of China's "big four" banks plans to cut some personal and corporate rates next week, according to sources; products affected include "call deposits" and "agreement deposits". Sources said the mechanism asked for a roughly 10bps cut to weighted average term deposit rates in the quarter from a year earlier. China urges banks to cut deposit rates, according to Reuters sources; message from Chinese regulators is to cut size of structured deposit business, lower rates of "innovative" products; Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang said uncertainty in external demand remains the biggest restraint for China’s trade and said that China will actively satisfy funding demand from small and medium-sized exporters and importers, as well as support firms to explore diversified markets, according to Reuters. Chinese officials and analysts said deflation concerns are unnecessary despite the slower price growth since the start of the year and noted the economy is on a solid recovery track amid pro-growth policies, according to the State Council. US urges South Korea not to fill China shortfalls if Beijing bans Micron (MU) chips, according to FT. BoJ Governor Ueda said the BoJ must maintain monetary easing as trend inflation is still below 2% but added that if it can be foreseen that trend inflation will reach 2%, the BoJ must head towards policy normalisation. Ueda also said that how to revise YCC will depend on various factors such as economic conditions and the pace of inflation at the time and noted that he cannot say now how specifically the BoJ could tweak YCC. BoJ is considering conducting a comprehensive review of the impact of the monetary easing steps taken over the longer term with the central bank planning to examine a quarter century of deflation and could start discussions as early as this week’s policy meeting, according to a Sankei report which didn’t cite any sources. European bourses are posting marginal losses in a relatively slow start to the European weak, with mixed Ifo data somewhat overlooked, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%. Sectors are mixed and feature outperformance in Financial Services on the back of UBS while Phillips leads the Stoxx 600 after a strong Q1 update. Stateside, futures are pressured but the magnitude of the downside has eased slightly throughout the morning going into a particularly busy US week for earnings and data, ES -0.2%. Top European News UK PM Sunak will hold talks with major UK firms and investors on Monday under the new "Business Connect" forum as the government seeks to fill the void following the scandal and implosion of the CBI business lobby, according to Bloomberg and FT. UK government is set to introduce legislation in the approaching days to set up a new regulator to police the increasing dominance of the large technology platforms, according to FT. ECB's Wunsch said they are waiting for wage growth and core inflation to decline, along with headline inflation, before they can arrive at the point where they can pause on rates, according to FT. German Interior Minister said public workers agreed on a wage deal with employers, according to Reuters. Germany's Bundesbank says the economy grew in Q1 above expectations, after a rebound in industrial conditions. S&P affirmed the UK at AA; Outlook Revised to Stable from Negative, while it affirmed Greece at BB+; Outlook Revised to Positive from Stable and affirmed Italy at BBB; Outlook Stable. Geopolitics EU is set to propose banning many goods from transiting through Russia which would be part of the EU’s eleventh sanctions package, according to Bloomberg. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev warned that Moscow will terminate the grain deal if the G7 moved to ban exports to Russia, according to Reuters. Russia-installed head of Crimea said air defences had been activated on Saturday although there were no reports of damages or casualties, according to Reuters. Germany expelled over 20 Russian diplomats, while Moscow called Berlin's actions "hostile" and will expel at least 20 German diplomats in a tit-for-tat response, according to Russian state news RIA-Novosti. Baltic states were angered by China’s ambassador to France who questioned the legitimacy of countries formerly in the Soviet Union and are planning to summon Chinese diplomats to complain about the remarks, according to FT. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun lodged solemn representations with the South Korean ambassador to China about South Korean President Yoon’s ‘erroneous’ Taiwan remarks, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry cited by Reuters. China reportedly lashed out against the US-Philippines alliance with the decision by the Philippines to grant the US access to four military bases near Taiwan said to anger Beijing, according to FT. However, it was separately reported that Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said China is ready to work with the Philippines to implement a consensus between the two countries and the Philippines’ Foreign Minister commented that differences in the South China Sea are not the sum total of relations between the two countries, according to Reuters. US senior administration official said North Korea’s human rights situation is likely to come up at next week's US-South Korea summit and North Korea is now in many ways much more closely aligned with China than it was before. US said it is deeply concerned by Azerbaijan establishing a checkpoint on the only land route to the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region, according to Reuters. US Secretary of State Blinken said US personnel and their dependents were safely evacuated from the embassy in Sudan. Furthermore, UK PM Sunak said British armed forces completed a rapid evacuation of British diplomats and their families, while the German military also conducted an evacuation of German citizens from Sudan. Turkey's Defence Minister is planning to meet his Russian, Syrian and Iranian counterparts in Moscow on April 25th, via Anadolu news. Japan says jet fighters/helicopters took off and landed on the Shandon Chinese carrier within the Pacific Ocean around 280 times between April 17th-23rd. EU Council President Michel says EU-China policy will be on the June European Council agenda. Earlier in the session, EU Foreign Representative Borrell says they will discuss how to recalibrate China relations. FX The Dollar has slipped towards the 101.50 mark from earlier 101.91 best to the mixed fortune of peers. CHF outperforms with safe-haven demand factoring amid the general risk tone and as attention on the US debt limit increases, USD/CHF at the lower-end of 0.8883-0.8928 parameters. EUR derived marginal and ultimately fleeting upside on the mixed German Ifo release and is now holding comfortably above the 1.10 mark but with ranges thin thus far while several ECB speakers have not impacted. Next best is the Kiwi, which is deriving support from AUD/NZD tailwinds rather than the lower RBNZ risk weighting for business growth; NZD above 0.6150 while AUD languishes below 0.67. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8835 vs exp. 6.8826 (prev. 6.8752) Fixed Income Gilts lead a broad retreat in debt ahead of UK public finance data as the 10-year bond retreats through 101.00 within a 101.24-100.70 range. Bunds off best levels between 134.21-133.68 parameters after a mixed German Ifo survey. T-note holds firm near 114-24+ overnight peak vs 114-14+ trough ahead of low-key agenda. GGBs have been lagging periphery peers somewhat, despite the outlook revision to positive at S&P as the rating was maintained as expected but disappointing some outside calls for an upgrade. Commodities WTI and Brent are off worst levels but remain softer overall in-line with broader risk sentiment; specifically, WTI is back in proximity to USD 78/bbl while Brent has reclaimed USD 81.50/bbl. Iran sets the May Iranian light crude price to Asia at Oman/Dubai +USD 2.80bbl (vs. prev. USD 2.50bbl), according to a Reuters source. Central banks reportedly loaded up on gold amid geopolitical tensions whereby reserve managers’ purchases rose 152% last year, while an annual poll of 83 central banks found that more than two-thirds thought their peers would increase gold holdings this year, according to FT. Head of Russian Grain Union says the Black Sea grain deal has not brought anything good to Russia so far; Russia could export around 60mln tonnes of grain (inc. 50mln tonnes of wheat) this season. Spot gold trades horizontally after finding some resistance around USD 1,985/oz overnight, with the yellow metal sandwiched to a USD 10/oz parameter amid a lack of clear catalysts. Base metals are mostly lower, although LME copper remains cushioned despite the broader subdued mood across markets; ING cites disruption to Codelco's copper operations. US Event Calendar 08:30: March Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.20, prior -0.19 10:00: Revisions: Retail Sales, Inventories 10:30: April Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -11.0, prior -15.7 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Just when we thought it was safe to venture back fully into normal family life after my daughter Maisie's 2-year plus hip battle we got a minor setback at the weekend. At the end of last week, she had her first dance class (Street Dance) since being out of her wheelchair and in the warmup got overexcited and bashed her hand into a wall. To cut a long story short, after an A&E visit we found that she's broken a bone in her wrist. Literally 2 minutes into her first dance class back. Fortunately, it's a relatively minor break and she can ease back into things after the splint is off in three weeks! I really hope she doesn't inherit my injury record! Although as I tell my wife most high-performance athletes tend to pick up a lot of injuries. There’s a bit of everything for investors around the world this week. In the US Q1 GDP, the employment cost index (ECI), core PCE, and consumer confidence are the highlights with us now in the Fed blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC. Meanwhile, we will see inflation and growth data in the Eurozone, and the BoJ's decision in Japan on Friday where DB has a non-consensus call (see below). Big tech (14% of S&P in 4 names), pharma and oil earnings will fill out a busy earnings week. Watch out for First Republic Bank reporting as well after the closing bell today. If we start in more detail now with the US, most of the key data is on Thursday and Friday. Before that tomorrow’s new home sales and consumer confidence are also important, especially the latter. The first reading of Q1 GDP is out on Thursday and our US economists expect a +2.2% print, versus +2.6% in the last quarter of 2022 with consumer spending (+3.6% vs. +2.5%) leading the way. However our economists suggest that Friday’s personal consumption and income data for March may well show that the bulk of the consumer boom in Q1 was in January and February due to warm weather. Within that report on Friday, the latest core PCE deflator will be a key report alongside the ECI. These will be the last big inflationary datapoints ahead of the FOMC. In Europe, growth and inflation data is due for key economies on Friday. These include GDP and CPI releases for Germany and France and GDP for the Eurozone. There will also be a plenty of sentiment gauges for the bloc. These include the Ifo survey for Germany today, consumer confidence for Germany and France on Wednesday and a list of metrics for Italy and the Eurozone on Thursday. Over in Asia, all eyes will be on Japan with both the BoJ decision and lots of key data including Tokyo CPI, labour market, retail sales and industrial production indicators all due on Friday. Our Chief Japan economist previews the central bank meeting, the first one for the new Governor Kazuo Ueda, here. Against the market consensus, he expects the BoJ to undergo a policy revision on the back of inflation risks, with potential outcomes including the termination of YCC, strengthening of forward guidance on short-term rates, and greater flexibility of JGB purchasing operations. For data releases, our economist expects unchanged unemployment and Tokyo CPI and a -0.4% MoM fall in industrial production (see full preview here). Earnings season continues apace this week, with Big Tech reporters taking centre stage. Comprising almost 14% of the S&P 500 by market cap, Microsoft and Alphabet tomorrow, Meta on Wednesday, and Amazon on Thursday will be among the most anticipated reports. The only one missing from the pack is Apple, which will report on May 4th. Other notable tech earnings this week include Texas Instruments (tomorrow), SK Hynix (Wednesday), Intel (Thursday) and Sony (Friday). In Europe the focus will be on key banks, including Credit Suisse (today) and UBS (tomorrow). The former will clearly be interesting given all that went on in Q1. Outflows will be worth watching just to see how serious the situation was at the time. In Asia, a number of Chinese banks report throughout the week. Meanwhile in the US, investors will be laser focussed on First Republic which report today. After trading in a 120-150 range in the first 2 and a bit months of the year, they have been in a 12-15 range over the last month. So they haven't broken back out of their depressed range but haven't deteriorated further. So these results could be important to the company and wider sentiment as this has been the perceived next weakest link. There are also some pharma heavyweights reporting, including Novartis (tomorrow), AstraZeneca and Sanofi (Thursday) in Europe. In the US, we'll hear from Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Merck and Bristol-Myers Squibb (Thursday), among others. Consumer demand will be gauged from an array of earnings from companies including McDonald's, Chipotle, PepsiCo (Tuesday), Coca-Cola (today), Domino's, Mondelez (Thursday) and Hilton (Wednesday). In autos, the focus will be on BYD (Thursday), Mercedes-Benz (Friday) and GM (Tuesday). Investors will be particularly interested in EV rollouts and pricing. Among other economically-sensitive bellwether stocks, industrials reporting include UPS, Raytheon, General Electric (Tuesday), Honeywell, Caterpillar, Northrop Grumman (Thursday) and Boeing (Wednesday). After the volatility in energy markets this year, attention will turn to some of the largest players by end of next week. Big Oil reporters including Exxon, Chevron and Eni on Friday and TotalEnergies on Thursday. Pioneer, Hess, EQT (Wednesday) and Valero (Thursday) will also report. Elsewhere, notable names in utilities include NextEra (Tuesday) and Iberdrola (Wednesday) and Linde, BASF (Thursday), Vale (Wednesday), Dow Inc (Tuesday) and Newmont (Thursday) in materials. The focus will likely be on supply plans and Chinese demand for metals players in particular. The full day-by-day data, earnings and central bank speaker calendar is at the end as usual. Asian equity markets are mostly trading lower as we start the week. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (-0.88%) is the biggest underperformer across the region with the Hang Seng (-0.61%), the CSI (-0.45%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.15%) also losing ground in early trade. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.29%) is bucking the regional trend. In overnight trading, US stock futures are seeing losses with contracts on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 both around -0.30% lower. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr USTs (-1.14bps) have edged lower, trading at 3.56% as we go to press. In a speech, the Bank of Japan Governor (BOJ) Kazuo Ueda indicated that consumer prices are likely nearing its peak, highlighting that he is “seeing it slowing ahead” while reiterating the need of keeping monetary policy expansionary ahead. Meanwhile, the BOJ Chief declined to specify how the central might phase out YCC, ahead of a two-day policy meeting that kicks off later this week. His overall comments don't suggest a root and branch review for Friday but there still might be some changes that we highlighted above. Elsewhere as we go to print, ECB governing council member Wunsch (from Belgium) has told the FT that he will only agree to halt rate hikes once wage growth starts to fall and that he wouldn't be surprised if rates go to 4%. So a hawkish start to the week on that front. In terms of recapping last week now, it was a relatively quiet week with risk off trying to dominate but with risk repeatedly making decent comebacks. Overall the S&P 500 retreated a very modest -0.1%, whilst 10yr Treasury yields gained +5.9bps over the week. On Friday, the US composite flash PMI for April came in above expectations to sit firmly in expansionary territory at 53.5 (vs 51.2 expected), driven by a significant beat in the services component (53.7 vs 51.5 expected), as well as a more modest upside surprise in manufacturing (50.4 vs 49.0 expected). Digging into the weeds of the print, we can see prices charged for goods and services in April rose at their sharpest level since September 2022, with an upturn in demand renewing price pressures. The release went against the stream relative to the softer US data published earlier in the week, with this sample featuring greater exposure to smaller and more domestically oriented firms. With the strong release highlighting real economy resilience despite the Fed’s historic hiking cycle, the probability of a 25bps hike in May priced in by the fed futures rose to 90.2%, up +8.9 percentage points week-on-week. Off the back of this, there was a small sell-off in US 10yr Treasuries, as yields rose +4.0bps on Friday, and +5.90bps week-on-week. The interest-rate sensitive 2yr yield climbed +3.9bps on Friday (and +8.3bps on the week). Europe saw a similar reaction earlier on Friday, with the composite PMI likewise beating expectations to land at 54.4 (vs 53.7 expected), although the manufacturing component fell back to 45.5 (vs 48 expected). The 10yr bund yield gained +3.6bps on Friday, and +4.2bps on the week. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 traded largely flat on Friday, finishing just slightly higher (+0.09%). The index traded in a tight range over course of the week with the 5-day trading range just 55pts or 1.3%, with the index finishing the week just -0.10% lower overall. The lack of realized volatility was reflected in short-term implied volatility falling to its lowest levels in over 17 months, as the VIX volatility index finished Friday at its lowest weekly close (16.77pts) since November 2021. The cyclical sectors of consumer discretionary and staples outperformed following the release, up +1.20% and +0.75% on Friday respectively. On the flip side, the metals and mining sector slid -2.39% on the week as iron fell ore (-4.34% week-on-week and -3.24% on Friday) to its lowest level since December 2022. The STOXX 600 finished up a modest +0.34% on Friday (and +0.45% week-on-week). Finally, turning to commodity markets. After four consecutive weeks of gains, crude oil retreated as data releases earlier in the week highlighted growing headwinds for the US economy. WTI crude fell -5.63% week-on-week, although regained ground on Friday following the PMI beat, climbing +0.75% to $77.87/bbl. Similarly, Brent crude broke its streak to finish down -5.39% week-on-week (+0.69% on Friday) to $81.66/bbl. Tyler Durden Mon, 04/24/2023 - 08:10.....»»

The University of Georgia survey revealed that Trump retains an advantage with the party's most conservative voters. Former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally at the Banks County Dragway in Commerce, Ga., on March 26, 2022.Megan Varner/Getty Images Donald Trump holds a wide lead over Ron DeSantis in a new Georgia GOP presidential poll. Trump led DeSantis 51%-30% with all candidates in the race and led 51%-41% in a one-on-one matchup. Georgia was ground zero for Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results. Former President Donald Trump boasts a wide lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida in a recent 2024 presidential poll of Georgia Republican voters. The results show the ex-president's continued dominance over the party despite his high-profile endorsement misfires against GOP Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger last year.In a poll conducted by the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Georgia, Trump led DeSantis 51%-30%, with 4% backing former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, 2% supporting former Vice President Mike Pence, and 1% indicating support for Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina; 7% of respondents said they were undecided.While Trump, who is seeking the Republican presidential nomination for the third time, jumped into the race last November, DeSantis — widely seen as his top competitor — has not yet officially announced but is expected to do so in the coming months.Haley joined the GOP contest in February and Pence continues to mull a potential presidential campaign.Despite the conservative credentials of the candidates — present and future — Trump has managed to cast a wide shadow over the party even after leaving the White House more than two years ago.The survey revealed that Trump retains an advantage with the party's most conservative voters, as well as those who are older and those who do not have a college degree.DeSantis performed better in the poll among Republican college graduates and was competitive with Trump among higher-income members of the party.In a one-on-one matchup, Trump still led DeSantis, albeit by a narrower 51%-41% edge.When it came to the recent indictment of Trump by the Manhattan district attorney's office over the former president's involvement in a hush-money payment to the adult film actress Stormy Daniels, 89% of GOP voters said the indictment shouldn't bar him from seeking the presidency again.Trump also faces a potential indictment from Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis over 2020 election interference, which could also ensnare other Republican leaders in the Southern swing state.In 2020, now-President Joe Biden won Georgia by about 12,000 votes, out of almost 5 million ballots cast, much to the consternation of Trump, who has called the victory into question despite no verifiable cases of mass fraud and multiple state officials having expressed confidence in the results.Immediately after the election, Trump prodded Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to help him overturn Biden's win, but both rejected his entreaties. Trump then vowed political revenge, backing GOP primary challengers to both Kemp and Raffensperger in the 2022 midterms.The challengers, former Sen. David Perdue and then-Rep. Jody Hice, were both soundly defeated in their respective gubernatorial and secretary of state primaries. And while Trump strongly backed former NFL player Herschel Walker's Senate bid against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock last year, the former president did not appear with Walker in the lead-up to the December runoff election.Warnock went on to defeat Walker in the Senate race 51.4% to 48.6%.The University of Georgia polled 983 likely Republican primary voters from April 2 through April 7 and April 10 through April 13. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

"If you're DeSantis, you have to desperately avoid the small room with Jeb Bush asking attendees to please clap," a source told The Washington Post. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida holds a copy of his new book as he speaks to a crowd at the Adventure Outdoors gun store in Smyrna, Ga., on March 30, 2023.AP Photo/John Bazemore A DeSantis-aligned super PAC is working to build crowds for the Florida governor, per WaPo. A source told WaPo that the PAC, Never Back Down, was looking to counter Trump's preoccupation with crowd sizes. DeSantis embarked on a book tour this year, which has attracted interest among many Republicans. A super PAC aligned with Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is working to build crowds for the likely 2024 Republican presidential candidate to counter former President Donald Trump's longstanding preoccupation with crowd sizes, according to The Washington Post.A senior member of the super PAC Never Back Down spoke anonymously to the paper and made it clear that DeSantis would need to avoid the viral incident that plagued onetime 2016 GOP presidential frontrunner Jeb Bush in which he prompted a New Hampshire crowd to "Please clap.""If you're DeSantis, you have to desperately avoid the small room with Jeb Bush asking attendees to please clap," the individual told The Post about the incident, which added to the general feeling that Bush's campaign was fading to the then-ascendant candidacy of Trump.DeSantis is widely expected to announce his candidacy after the Florida legislative session concludes in May and the PAC told the Post that the Florida governor would need to fulfill expectations that a top-tier candidate can attract a sizable audience. A representative for Never Back Down did not immediately return Insider's request for comment. After holding a rally last month in Waco, Texas, Trump mocked DeSantis over the crowd size of one stop in the governor's tour of his recently-released book, "The Courage to Be Free: Florida's Blueprint for America's Revival."But according to The Post, Trump inaccurately said that DeSantis' largest crowd at an Iowa stop consisted of 179 people, but in actuality, there were over 1,000 people in attendance.While DeSantis romped to a nearly 20-point reelection victory last fall and would be Trump's top competitor if he entered the GOP presidential primary, the former president remains popular among Republicans.In recent polling taken immediately after Trump was indicted by the Manhattan District Attorney's office over his involvement in a hush-money payment to the adult film actress Stormy Daniels, the former president expanded his national lead in a one-on-one matchup against DeSantis.A Yahoo News/YouGov poll taken in late March showed Trump with a 57%-31% lead over DeSantis, compared to the smaller 47%-39% advantage by the former president in a February survey.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

A New York grand jury voted to indict Donald Trump last week, making him the first former president to be criminally charged. Donald Trump.José Luis Villegas/AP Former president Donald Trump has been arrested. Trump pleaded not guilty to 34 felony counts in Manhattan court on Tuesday, Reuters reported. The case comes after a years-long probe into an alleged $130,000 hush-money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels.  Trump has left the courtroomThe former president uttered "Not guilty" when asked by a judge how he pleaded during his brief court appearance.Trump didn't speak to reporters as he left.Trump pleads not guilty to 34 felonies countsFormer US President Donald Trump sits at the defense table with his defense team in a Manhattan court on April 4, 2023 in New York City.Seth Wenig/Getty ImagesDonald Trump pleaded not guilty during his court appearance, according to multiple media reporters.Reuters reported Trump faces 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.Read Full StoryThe Trump campaign's fake mugshot T-shirt added 2 inches to his heightImmediately following Donald Trump's arrest in Manhattan on Tuesday, his campaign began promoting a new T-shirt featuring a mugshot of the former president emblazoned with the phrase "NOT GUILTY."But the mugshot isn't real. And neither is Trump's height, as depicted by the T-shirt.Read MoreFirst images show Donald Trump sitting in court during his arraignmentFormer President Donald Trump sits at the defense table with his defense team in a Manhattan court, Tuesday, April 4, 2023, in New York.Seth Wenig/Associated PressTrump is currently being arraigned on criminal charges in a Manhattan courthouse.No one held the door for Trump as he walked into courtFormer President Donald Trump at the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse in New York on April 4, 2023.Ed Jones/AFP via Getty ImagesA scowling Trump was spotted on live TV walking through a door in the Manhattan courthouse.Unlike during his time as president, no one held the door for him.—The Associated Press (@AP) April 4, 2023Keep Reading Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez celebrates Marjorie Taylor Greene getting heckled in New York City at a pro-Trump rallyRep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty ImagesDemocratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York celebrated a report that her far-right colleague from Georgia, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, was heckled Tuesday in New York City."Welcome to NYC!," Ocasio-Cortez tweeted with a Statue of Liberty emoji. "Where there are still social consequences for shameless bigotry"Greene was in the city to speak at a pro-Donald Trump rally ahead of the former president being arraigned, but her speech lasted less than 10 minutes before she quickly left the throng of reporters.Read Full StoryWhite House says Biden isn't focusing on Trump's criminal casePresident Biden is set to end the COVID-19 national and public health emergencies in May.AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, PoolWhite House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre declined to comment on Trump's arrest and pending arraignment on criminal charges."We're just not going to comment specifically on the case itself," Jean-Pierre told reporters Tuesday afternoon.As for President Biden, Jean-Pierre said Trump's legal woes were "not his focus for today."Donald Trump is now in custodyDonald Trump holds up a fist to onlookers as he leaves to be taken into custody and arraigned.APDonald Trump surrendered into the custody of the Manhattan district attorney's office at 1:22 p.m. on Tuesday.He will remain under arrest until mid-afternoon, when he'll enter a plea of "not guilty" and a judge will let him go home.—Noah Hurowitz (@NoahHurowitz) April 4, 2023 Read Full StoryTrump is headed to his arraignment along with police and Secret Service agents—The Associated Press (@AP) April 4, 2023 Donald Trump has left Trump Tower to a waiting caravan of vehicles on Manhattan's 56th Street. He emerged from the building under a golden awning to a contingent of NYPD, FDNY, and Secret Service vehicles that had been screened by police dogs.As he stepped out, he held up a fist to onlookers.The former president will now drive downtown to 100 Centre Street for his historic arraignment.   Marjorie Taylor Greene's rally speech lasts less than 10 minutesMarjorie Taylor Greene during her minutes-long speech at a small pro-Trump rally on Tuesday in New York City.ReutersGeorgia GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's rally speech lasted less than 10 minutes in the park outside the lower Manhattan courthouse where Donald Trump is set to be arraigned later Tuesday.Greene used a megaphone during her less speech at the planned rally where the media outnumbered backers of Trump."The government has been weaponized against [Trump]," Greene told the swarm of press and Trump supporters before her. "I am here to protest, use my voice and take a stand. Every American should take a stand."Greene called Trump an "innocent man," saying, "We cannot tolerate this injustice in the United States of America."The rally to support Trump then quickly devolved into a political demonstration featuring Greene's usual talking points against Democrats."Democrats are the party of violence," Greene said as she called the Republican Party "the party of peace."As Greene left the park after the minutes-long speech, she was rushed away from the rally amid a crush of reporters and demonstrators, as people could be heard shouting for her to "get the fuck out of my city!"  Anti-Trump protesters outnumbered his supporters outside the courthouseAnti-Trump demonstrators stand behind a metal barricade at the NYC courthouse before Donald Trump's arraignmentJacob ShamsianThe protesters chanted "Lock him up!"Trump, in an all-caps rant, wants the trial moved to Staten Island where more of his voters liveFormer President Donald Trump.Scott Olson/Getty ImagesIn an all-caps message posted online before his arraignment, Donald Trump railed against his upcoming criminal case, saying it wouldn't be fair because Manhattan voters didn't support him."VERY UNFAIR VENUE, WITH SOME AREAS THAT VOTED 1% REPUBLICAN," the former US president wrote on his TruthSocial website. "THIS CASE SHOULD BE MOVED TO NEARBY STATEN ISLAND - WOULD BE A VERY FAIR AND SECURE LOCATION FOR THE TRIAL."Staten Island was the only New York City borough to have a majority of voters support Trump in the 2020 election.Demonstrators outnumbered by reporters before Trump's arraignmentPro-Trump supporters, a man dressed in a Donald Trump costume, and serial liar George Santos were among the small crowd gathering at lower Manhattan's Collect Pond Park.Supporters and spectators started gathering at the park Tuesday morning, which is near the Manhattan Criminal Court where former President Donald Trump will be arraigned this afternoon. But reporters and journalists vastly outnumbered the demonstrators Tuesday morning. —Jacob Shamsian ⚖️ (@JayShams) April 4, 2023 Santos appeared on the pro-Trump side of Collect Pond Park accompanied by a small entourage and was immediately swarmed by a crush of cameras and press. Santos repeated "I'm here to support the President" and then left the park after about 5 minutes of being completely surrounded by reporters and bystanders jeering at him.The park will be the site of a 10:30 a.m. pro-Trump rally hosted by The New York Young Republicans and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. Trump's Secret Service agents would accompany him if he went to jail, retired US judge saysThen-US President Donald Trump walks with Secret Service agents in Yuma, Arizona, in August 2017.REUTERS/Joshua RobertsSecret Service agents would accompany former President Donald Trump if he went to jail, a retired US judge told Sky News.Joseph Cosgrove, formerly of the Court of Common Pleas of the 11th Judicial District in Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court, said agents would follow him to jail for his protection."Let's assume the worst for Mr Trump: if he were sentenced to some sort of confinement, he would be confined with his secret service agents," Cosgrove said.Former presidents are entitled to Secret Service protection for life under federal law.Former Secret Service officials told Insider's Robin Bravender and Dave Levinthal last November that if Trump went to prison for any reason Secret Service agents would very likely follow him, though they said an agent wouldn't end up in a cell with him.Experts say that Trump is unlikely to face any jail time if he is convicted, and it is more likely that he will be subjected to a fine, community service, or probation.Read Full Story This is the scene outside the court, as Trump is due to be arraignedOutside the court on Tuesday morning.Jacob Shamsian/InsiderMore than 100 reporters stood in line outside of Manhattan Criminal Court at 6:30 a.m. on Tuesday.Trump is expected to be arraigned in the afternoon, but journalists began gathering at 100 Centre Street by 2:45 p.m. on Monday to secure one of the limited seats inside the courtroom.Some outlets hired people to wait in the line overnight so reporters could catch a few hours rest before returning early Tuesday morning.The New York Supreme Court judge overseeing Tuesday's hearing noted the historic nature of the proceedings in a Monday court order."That this indictment involves a matter of monumental significance cannot possibly be disputed. Never in the history of the United States has a sitting or past President been indicted on criminal charges," Judge Juan Merchan wrote.He went on to say that Trump's arraignment has "generated unparalleled public interest and media attention."While Merchan acknowledged the importance of the press, he ruled against broadcasting the proceedings live after Trump's lawyers argued that doing so would create a "circus-like atmosphere."Merchan also ruled that no electronic devices would be allowed inside the courtroom. Five pool photographers will be permitted to take still photos from the jury box for a limited time before the proceedings, and the use of cameras will be permitted in the hallways.Nearby the courthouse, Trump supporters are expected to start gathering by 10:30 a.m.The New York Young Republicans are holding a pro-Trump rally at lower Manhattan's Collect Pond Park, which is adjacent to the courthouse.Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has publicized the event, calling for those in attendance to wear MAGA hats.Hours from his own arraignment, Trump says Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg should 'INDICT HIMSELF'Trump attacked Bragg in a Truth Social post on Monday.Gotham/GC Images and Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesOn the eve of his arraignment in New York, former President Donald Trump took to social media to declare that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg should "INDICT HIMSELF."Trump, who was indicted on Thursday and is expected to surrender on April 4, lashed out at Bragg in a Truth Social post on Monday."Wow! District Attorney Bragg just illegally LEAKED the various points, and complete information, on the pathetic Indictment against me," Trump wrote on Monday."Now, if he wants to really clean up his reputation, he will do the honorable thing and, as District Attorney, INDICT HIMSELF," added Trump.Trump did not elaborate on why he thought Bragg leaked any information from the sealed indictment and did not provide any evidence to prove his claim. READ FULL STORYTough times in the Trump press lineAn Associated Press journalist found an ingenious way to work while waiting in line to secure a press seat at former President Donald Trump's arraignment. Bobby Calvan put an old pizza box on top of a rusty garbage can to create a makeshift desk, per a tweet by his colleague Mike Sisak, also an AP reporter.—Mike Sisak (@mikesisak) April 3, 2023   Trump is slated to be arraigned tomorrow in New York. Calvan did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.Trump lawyer Joe Tacopina warns that we might be on the 'eve of destruction' the night before Trump's arraignmentFormer President Donald Trump arrives at Trump Tower on April 03, 2023 in New York City.Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesJoe Tacopina, a lawyer for former President Donald Trump, likened the night before Trump's arraignment to the "eve of destruction."In an interview on Monday on Fox News, Tacopina — who is representing Trump in New York — said he could not believe that the ex-president was going to be arraigned on Tuesday."What's extraordinary is that tomorrow is actually happening, that's what's extraordinary. I just cannot believe it, I  think we're on the eve of destruction. It's just like surreal to me," Tacopina said.Tacopina's words on Fox News were similar to the ominous sentiment expressed in Trump's previous Truth Social posts. On March 23, Trump predicted that there would be "death & destruction" if he is indicted. Trump on March 18 also called on his followers to protest" and "take our nation back," echoing his own rhetoric before the January 6 Capitol riot.READ FULL STORYThe arraignment will not be broadcast live, judge rulesFormer U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the America First Agenda Summit, at the Marriott Marquis hotel July 26, 2022 in Washington, DC.Drew Angerer / Staff / Getty ImagesNew York Supreme Court Judge Juan Merchan has rejected the media's request to allow cameras for Trump's arraignment Tuesday. A small number of photographers will be allowed to take pictures before the arraignment begins, Merchan ruled Monday night.Earlier on Monday, attorneys for Trump said they don't want cameras in the courtroom because it will "create a circus-like atmosphere."Read Full StoryThe supporters will make their way downtown for a protest this eveningTaisha Parrot, a researcher from Jamaica, Queens, came out with her Trump flag on high, sporting an "ULTRA MAGA" baseball cap.She came out for "two main reasons: one to support Trump and two, to protest what Alvin Bragg is doing.""The only reason they are doing this is because he's ahead in the polls," she said. "He's gotten higher in the polls as a result of this."She said she and a couple of other protesters were on their way downtown to another protest by the New York Republican Latinos later tonight.Supporters are flying in to support TrumpReutersArlinda Rainey, 52, and her mother, 75-year-old Marjorie Westerfield flew all the way from Central Kentucky to support Trump as he arrived in New York City to face a historic indictment.The pair spent a combined $6,000 for airfare and accommodations in the big city."I feel like they are doing him wrong," Special Education teacher, Raniey said. "I feel like we were safer with him as president."Raniey said she didn't care much for New York City."Too many people."The ladies took shelter in an atrium area in Trump Tower as the former presidents motorcade rolled down 56th street to the side entrance."We're just here to show support and to let him know to keep going strong," Westerfield said.Trump has arrived at Trump TowerTrump arrives at Trump Tower on Monday April 3, 2023.(AP Photo/Bryan Woolston)Trump arrived to Trump Tower just after 4 p.m. ET to a small group of supporters lining Madison Avenue. He's expected to stay the night in Manhattan before his court appearance Tuesday. Reporters are already lining up to get a chance to attend Trump's public arraignment —Liam Quigley (@_elkue) April 3, 2023 Police brace for protests by erecting barricades and closing streetsPolice trucked in stacks of barricades as possible indictment of former President Donald Trump looms.El Calabrese/InsiderNYPD erected barricades in front of Trump Tower and the courthouse in preparation for potential protests.An NYPD spokesperson told Insider there are "no current credible threats" to the city.Read MoreTrump's legal team said cameras in the courtroom would cause a 'circus-like atmosphere.'Former President Donald Trump speaks to supporters at his rally in Waco, Texas, on March 25, 2023.AP Photo/Evan VucciThe former president's lawyers say they want to avoid "a circus-like atmosphere" as Trump is arraigned in a Manhattan criminal court.Trump himself has called for mass protests outside on social media.Read Full StoryThe NYC park where Marjorie Taylor Greene is hosting the rally for Trump used to be an open sewer the city tried to fill in with land but it sunk (and stunk)An engraved illustration shows the 'Collect Pond' in the 1700s.Interim Archives/Getty ImagesHours before former President Donald Trump plans to surrender to the Manhattan District Attorney Tuesday, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene will join a rally in New York City's Collect Pond Park to protest the former president's indictment.But the park — just steps outside of the DA's office in downtown Manhattan — wasn't always the patch of greenery inside New York's concrete jungle. The small area was once a pond filled with drinking water that later became a disgusting, stinky open sewer and the center of a gang-filled slum where mobsters like Lucky Luciano and Al Capone got their start.Keep ReadingThe only way you'll see Donald Trump's mugshot is if someone leaks it or he shares it himselfFormer U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the America First Agenda Summit, at the Marriott Marquis hotel July 26, 2022 in Washington, DC.Drew Angerer / Staff / Getty ImagesThe indicted former US president will be fingerprinted and will pose for a mugshot ahead of his New York City courtroom arraignment on Tuesday, but the photograph won't be made public unless it is leaked or released by Trump himself.Under New York law, mugshots are not public records. Read Full StoryTrump has left Florida on his jet before his arraignment on TuesdayTrump and his Boeing 757.Andrew Milligan/PA Images via Getty ImagesDonald Trump's jet departed from Florida Monday afternoon, according to an Instagram account tracking its movements.The 757 airliner — which is decked out with the word "Trump" painted on it — left West Palm Beach.Trump was expected to leave Florida on Monday before his arraignment in Manhattan court on Tuesday.Trump announces Mar-a-Lago speech hours after Tuesday arraignmentFormer President Donald Trump announced Sunday that he would be speaking at his Palm Beach club Mar-a-Lago Tuesday evening at 8:15 p.m. — hours after his arraignment in New York. Trump is scheduled to be arraigned Tuesday afternoon. Then, he will be flying into New York on Monday night to voluntarily surrender himself on Tuesday, ahead of his appearance before a judge. It's pretty much a certainty that Trump will remain free afterward, probably without any bail set at all, Insider's Laura Italiano reported.Under New York's recently changed progressive bail laws, defendants can be ordered held on bail only if the judge finds that they are a flight risk. John Bolton says if Manhattan DA case flops, it could be 'rocket fuel' for the former presidentDonald Trump and John Bolton.Evan Vucci/Associated PressFormer national security advisor John Bolton said that if the Manhattan district attorney squanders Donald Trump's criminal case, it could be "rocket fuel" for the former president's campaign. "I'm not worried about Alvin Bragg hurting Donald Trump. I'm worried about Alvin Bragg benefiting Donald Trump," Bolton told CBS' "Face the Nation" on Sunday, referring to the DA overseeing the ex-president's criminal case.Read Full StoryChris Christie says the 'bravado from the Trump camp' toward the indictment 'is baloney' as the former president's arraignment approachesChris Christie.Lorenzo Bevilaqua/ABC via Getty ImagesFormer New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said the "bravado" displayed by former President Donald Trump after being indicted by a Manhattan grand jury is "baloney." Speaking on a panel on Sunday's "This Week" on ABC News, Christie said he was mostly reserving commentary on the content of the indictment because he wanted to read it first, but then proceeded to offer several minutes of commentary.A grand jury indicted Trump last week after an investigation by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Brag into hush money paid to adult film actress Stormy Daniels prior to the 2016 election.Read Full StoryTrump lawyer Joe Tacopina says his client has a 'right to have an issue with everything' after Trump goes after Manhattan judgeJoe Tacopina, an attorney for Donald Trump, said the former president has a "right to have an issue with everything" after Trump claimed a judge involved in his Manhattan criminal case was biased against him.Tacopina echoed Trump's claims that a grand jury indictment handed down last week in Manhattan was a form of political persecution, but he stopped short of saying that he would request a different judge."Had he not been running for the presidency, he would not have been indicted," Tacopina said of Trump on CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday. "We are going to take the indictment, evaluate all our legal options, and pursue every one most vigorously." Read Full StoryFormer Arkansas GOP Gov. Asa Hutchinson announces run for president, says Trump should 'step aside' from the race after his indictmentGov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas.AP Photo/Manuel Balce CenetaFormer Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas formally announced that his is running for president on Sunday.Just two days earlier, on Friday, Hutchinson said former President Donald Trump should "step aside" from the 2024 presidential race after his indictment by the Manhattan District Attorney's Office.During an appearance on Fox Business, Hutchinson pointed to the integrity of serving in elected office as he spoke of the former president's criminal inquiry."When a public official is indicted, I think with regard to the office, the office is more important than the person and they should step aside. That standard should apply here. It is a distraction," Hutchinson said on the network.Read Full StoryTrump surges to a 26-point lead over Ron DeSantis in the 2024 GOP presidential primary post-indictment: pollFormer President Donald Trump; Florida Gov. Ron DeSantisGetty ImagesFormer President Donald Trump was already the front-runner among Republicans in the 2024 race for the White House, edging out a likely but yet-to-be-announced contender in Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida. But with his indictment by a Manhattan grand jury, Trump has surged ahead in a head-to-head matchup against DeSantis in a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, beating the Sunshine State politician by 26 percentage points among registered Republican voters and Independents who lean Republican. In the poll, 57% of those asked said they would vote for Trump, while 31% indicated that they would back DeSantis, which was one of the first surveys to be conducted after Thursday's indictment.Read Full StoryTrump's legal team may ask to move his criminal trial from Manhattan to more conservative-leaning Staten Island, report saysFormer President Donald Trump's defense team is considering asking to move his criminal trial to more conservative-leaning Staten Island, fearing that the former president wouldn't be able to receive a fair trial in Manhattan, according to Bloomberg.Trump's attorneys have not yet determined their final course of action on the matter, however, and are looking to first review the charges in the indictment from Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg Jr., an unnamed source told the news agency.The request has the veneer of politics, as Manhattan — or New York County — is one of the most Democratic-heavy jurisdictions in the country. Staten Island, meanwhile, has long been the most conservative of New York City's give boroughs.Read Full StoryTrump Organization employees were 'really happy' about Trump's indictment, Maggie Haberman saysNew York Times reporter Maggie Haberman on Friday said several Trump Organization employees texted her expressing their happiness over former President Donald Trump's indictment by the Manhattan District Attorney's office in connection with a hush money payment made to the adult film actress Stormy Daniels.After a Manhattan grand jury voted to indict Trump, Haberman, who wrote the book "Confidence Man" and is widely seen as the most prominent chronicler of the former president's tenure in the White House, said during a panel interview on CNN's "This Morning" that she began receiving messages from employees soon after news broke of his indictment."There is a long trail of people who feel burned in one way or another by Donald Trump. We certainly saw that in the White House," she said. "This was a pattern that existed for decades before the Trump Organization."Read Full StoryMichael Cohen's lawyer says case against Trump is 'very solid' and jurors only need ask themselves if Trump had 'any political motivation' for the Stormy Daniels paymentDonald Trump's former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen, center, is joined by his attorney, Lanny Davis, before Cohen's grand jury appearance in mid-March.Mary Altaffer/APMichael Cohen's attorney believes the criminal case against Donald Trump in the Manhattan District Attorney's investigation is "very solid" though it's "not going to be an easy case." Cohen, Trump's longtime political fixer turned political adversary, is expected to be a "principal witness" in the case if it goes to trial, attorney Lanny Davis told NBC's "Meet the Press NOW" on Friday."It's not going to be an easy case because they do have to create a novel law," Davis said. "But here is why I think it's a very, very solid case, maybe more solid than any of the other cases. Everyone's missing this."There is only "one question that the jury has to ask and answer," Davis told NBC News host Chuck Todd. "The legal issue will be decided by a judge, but the factual question is very simple: Did Donald Trump have any political motivation when he directed Michael to pay $130,000 to Stormy?" Davis said. "Any." Read Full StoryDonald Trump's NFT trading cards jumped in value to almost $1,700 after Manhattan indictmentFormer President Donald Trump.AP Photo/Alex BrandonDonald Trump's digital trading card NFTs have spiked in value, with the highest sale at nearly $1,700 following his indictment in the Manhattan district attorney's investigation. According to Newsweek, the floor price of Trump's NFT trading cards was 0.41 Ethereum (ETH), or about $748 USD, on March 30 when Trump was indicted. As of publication on April 1, the floor price ticked up 1.9% to $967.38, or 0.5299 ETH, according to NFT Price Floor, a site that indexes and complies data on NFT trading and marketplaces. Trump's NFTs had an average sale of 0.5737 ETH, or roughly $1,000 — rising 1.45% in the last 24 hours. The highest sale soared to 0.9298 ETH, which equates to nearly $1,700 — an increase of 10.16% in the same period, according to the site. Read Full StoryTrump raised more than $4 million within 24 hours following grand jury indictment, his campaign saysDonald Trump.Anna Moneymaker/Getty ImagesTrump raised more than $4 million within 24 hours after news broke that a Manhattan grand jury had voted to indict him, his campaign said on Friday.The campaign made the revelation in a press release and email to subscribers, which described the case as the "Alvin Bragg witch hunt."The statement hailed the influx of donations and said that over 25% came from first-time donors and that the average contribution was $34. Read Full StoryTrump's indictment may 'embolden' prosecutors to bring more charges against him for January 6 and his efforts to overturn the election, legal experts sayFormer President Donald Trump's list of legal woes could get more complicated following his indictment by a New York grand jury on Thursday. Trump is the first ex-president to ever be charged with a crime after an investigation into a hush-money payment made to the adult-film actress Stormy Daniels. Although the charges have not yet been made public, ex-Manhattan prosecutors say that Trump risks felony-level state records-fraud charges that carry punishments of up to four years in prison.The chances of him going to prison, however, are slim to none.But several legal experts told Insider the indictment could make other prosecutors "emboldened" to charge him in other ongoing investigations related to his role in the Capitol riot, an alleged scheme to overturn election results in Georgia, and his handling of government records.Keep ReadingCan Trump still run for president after being indicted?Former President Donald Trump has been indicted by a grand jury in New York, triggering a wave of questions about the indictment's potential implications on his 2024 presidential campaign, and whether Trump could go on to serve as president again after being formally accused of a felony crime.A presidential candidate can, indeed, still run for office despite being indicted for a crime, according to the US Constitution. Read Full StoryWhat is an indictment? What it means for someone to be indicted by a grand jury and why Trump was chargedPeople demonstrate outside of Manhattan Criminal Court on March 21, 2023, after the news that former Pres. Donald Trump may soon face a criminal indictment.Alan Chin for InsiderA Manhattan grand jury voted to indict former President Donald Trump on Thursday after hearing evidence for months about his alleged role in a hush-money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.With that vote, 76-year-old Trump became the first former US president ever to be indicted on criminal felony charges in American history.So what does it mean to be indicted? An indictment is a formal notice to a defendant that they have been charged with a crime, according to the US Department of Justice.Read Full StoryTrump to fly to New York Monday night ahead of Tuesday arraignment: reportsGetty/Drew AngererTrump will fly to New York Monday night, the eve of his expected arraignment, per the Washington Post.Trump lead attorney Susan Necheles told Insider that Trump is expecting to voluntarily surrender on Tuesday at Manhattan Criminal Court. Final arrangements were still being hammered out on Friday among the NYPD, court staff and the Secret Service, she said. Is Trump going to jail?The chances of Donald Trump spending any time behind bars over his historic New York indictment are slim to none, according to legal experts. First-offenders virtually never go to jail on the kind of non-violent, low-level felonies that Trump's lawyers currently believe he faces, from an indictment with an expected top charge of falsifying business records in the first degree, But Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg can still seek to lock Trump up if he is convicted, experts told Insider, given that felony falsifying of business records allows a sentence of anywhere from zero jail time up to a maximum of four years in prison.Prosecutors can also ask for more likely penalties — including a hefty fine, community service, and probation — in the event that the 76-year-old former president is convicted.Read Full StoryMeet Juan Merchan, the Manhattan judge scheduled to oversee Donald Trump's criminal caseJudge Juan Merchan presides during the Trump Organization's criminal tax trial in Manhattan Criminal Court, New York City, U.S., November 15, 2022 in this courtroom sketch.REUTERS/Jane RosenbergFollowing his indictment this week, Donald Trump is poised to face an old nemesis in court: Judge Juan Manuel Merchan.Merchan is overseeing the Manhattan district attorney's criminal case against the ex-president. He was spotted going into a Manhattan courthouse on Thursday evening, likely to review the indictment voted on by a grand jury hours earlier. That same day, he issued an order allowing prosecutors to disclose the existence of the indictment, which is normally a closely-held secret. On Friday, court security put extra restrictions near his chambers.Trump and Merchan have a history. The judge oversaw last fall's criminal trial against the Trump Organization. The company's CFO, Allen Weisselberg, pleaded guilty to financial crime charges and testified in the case. A jury convicted Trump's company of numerous financial fraud charges.Trump isn't fond of the judge.Read Full StoryTrump's lawyers promise a 'smooth surrender' but don't expect him to take a plea dealDonald Trump's lead attorney doesn't expect the former president to take a plea deal, adding that he's a "tough guy" who is "resolved to fight" against any and all charges brought his way.Still lawyer Susan Necheles told Insider "it will be a smooth surrender" when Trump turns himself in to face the charges against him. Lindsey Graham says Trump should 'smash some windows,' sniping at New York's crime policiesSen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC).Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesSen. Lindsey Graham joked that Trump should "punch a cop" on his way to being booked in Manhattan, saying it would be a way for Trump to avoid prosecution.The barb was a reference to Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg's crime policies in New York City, which Republicans have targeted as far back as the 2022 election as being too soft on criminals.Read Full StoryIvanka Trump offers up short statement after her father's indictmentIvanka Trump listens during an event in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on August 4, 2020.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesThe former first daughter wrote in an Instagram story that she was "pained" for her father and country.Her three-sentence-long statement added: "I appreciate the voices across the political spectrum expressing support and concern."Read Full StoryManhattan DA office blasts House RepublicansManhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.AP Photo/Seth WenigManhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's office brushed off House GOP's threats of investigation, warning three committee chairmen not to interfere with the prosecution of former President Donald Trump."Like any other defendant, Mr. Trump is entitled to challenge these charges in court and avail himself of all processes and protections that New York State's robust criminal procedure affords," a lawyer for Bragg's office wrote in a letter dated Friday to Reps. Jim Jordan of Ohio, James Comer of Kentucky, and Bryan Steil of Wisconsin, chairmen of the powerful House Judiciary, Oversight, and Administration committees, respectively. "What neither Mr. Trump nor Congress may do is interfere with the ordinary course of proceedings in New York State," the DA's general counsel, Leslie Dubeck, added.Keep ReadingTrump's indictment kickstarts a round of memesPresident Donald Trump uses his cellphone during a roundtable discussion at the White House in in Washington DC, on June 18, 2020.Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty ImagesWhile the news of the indictment stirred Trump, his allies, his opponents, and the media into a frenzy, it also spurred some top-quality memes across social media, from references to the popular show "Succession" to Gwyneth Paltrow ski trial comparisons. Keep ReadingTrump was smiling and glad-handing fans at Mar-a-Lago as news of his indictment crashed around him, resort guests sayFormer President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida.Charles Trainor Jr./Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty ImagesFormer President Donald Trump was all smiles Thursday night, guests told Insider, describing an alternate reality at his Mar-a-Lago club as news of his historic indictment broke.Read MoreTrump is 'ready to be combative' defending himself, his lawyer says in NBC interviewFormer President Donald Trump's attorney, Joe Tacopina, appears on NBC's "Today" on March 31, 2023.NBC Today show/TwitterNBC's "Today" show interviewed Trump lawyer Joe Tacopina on Friday, who said his client is "ready to be combative" in defending himself.Tacopina said Trump was "initially shocked" by the news of the indictment, appearing to confirm reporting from news outlets which said the news caught him off-guard.He said that shock was soon replaced by "typical Donald Trump posture where he's ready to be combative on something that he believes is an injustice."Tacopina also told NBC that there's "zero" chance Trump will take a plea deal, adding: "It's not gonna happen."He said raised the prospect that the charges may not even make it to trial, saying there were "substantial legal challenges," though he did not give specifics.Recap: Where we stand the morning after Trump's indictment made historyFormer President Donald Trump speaks with reporters while in flight on his plane after a campaign rally in Waco, Texas on March 25, 2023.Evan Vucci/APIt's been around 12 hours since news broke that former President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury, a first for an ex-president.Since then, his allies rallied to his defense and even his 2024 rivals, Gov. Ron DeSantis and former VP Mike Pence, joined in.Meanwhile, Stormy Daniels, the porn star who received the hush-money payment at the center of the case, said she has been celebrating with champagne.Demonstrators congregated outside the Manhattan DA's office last night, while others met outside Mar-a-Lago, where Trump was staying.Trump raged at being "INDICATED" — seemingly not noticing his typo — and is said to have been shoring up his support since.He is planning to surrender to authorities next week, his lawyer Joe Tacopina said.You can find more detail below, and Insider will be bringing more updates through Friday as the story develops.Trump calls Capitol Hill allies to bolster support, tells them he will fight charges: CNNThen-President Donald Trump uses his cellphone at the White House on June 18, 2020.Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty ImagesTrump has been calling up allies on Capitol Hill for "check-ins" and to bolster support following the announcement of his indictment, GOP sources told CNN's Capitol Hill reporter Melanie Zanona.He spoke to members of the House GOP leadership and lawmakers serving on committees that are trying to investigate Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, telling them he plans to fight the charges, Zanona said on Twitter.People on Chinese social media say Trump's indictment embarrassed the US and made China look goodA Weibo montage of AI-generated images shows what life would be like if "comrade" Trump retires and "returns home" to China.Screenshot/WeiboThe indictment has Chinese social media users posting a flurry of memes calling him "Comrade Nation Builder" — a hero who's strengthening China by embarrassing the US.The idea behind the "Comrade Nation Builder" nickname on Weibo, China's version of Twitter, is that Trump is an ally of China who went to Washington for the sole purpose of sabotaging America with wild antics and outrageous policies."Would you like to join the Party, Comrade Nation Builder?" a person on Weibo wrote, referring to the Chinese Communist Party, which Trump considers a sworn enemy.  READ FULL STORYTrump went from joking about 'golden handcuffs' to being 'irritated' and 'deflated,' Washington Post reportsFormer US President Donald Trump speaks during a visit to the border wall near Pharr, Texas on June 30, 2021.Sergio Flores/AFP via Getty ImagesTrump was joking with aides and in high spirits which vanished when the New York indictment took him and his staffers by surprise, per The Washington Post.The Post spoke to an aide who said Trump was joking about "golden handcuffs" in the days before he was indicted. He thought an indictment would not come for weeks, if at all, two advisers told The Post. One of the two advisers the Post spoke to said Trump quickly became "irritated" and "deflated" after the indictment. READ FULL STORYNew York prosecutors wanted Trump to surrender on Friday, but Trump's lawyers said the Secret Service needs more time to prepare his escort: PoliticoFormer President Donald Trump.Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty ImagesThe Manhattan district attorney's office wanted former President Donald Trump to surrender on Friday, but his lawyers said the Secret Service needed more time to arrange his escort, Politico reported.Trump, who was indicted on Thursday by a New York grand jury, is due in court on April 4.The negotiation around Trump's protection was confirmed by Joe Tacopina, Trump's lawyer, and an unnamed source in law enforcement, per Politico. READ FULL STORYMichael Cohen says Trump will join him in the ranks of 'convicted felons' soon: 'See you on Tuesday, pal'Donald Trump and Michael Cohen.Shane Bevel/NCAA Photos via Getty Images, Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesMichael Cohen, former President Donald Trump's one-time personal lawyer and fixer, gloated on CNN about how Trump may soon join him in the ranks of convicted felons. Speaking to CNN, Cohen admitted that he was a "convicted perjurer," a "convicted felon," and a "disbarred lawyer."But Cohen — who Trump's spokespeople have previously labeled a "disbarred felon" in statements to Insider — also alluded on CNN to how the label of "felon" might soon apply to Trump, too."Oh by the way for Donald, since we're talking about convicted felons, see you on Tuesday, pal," Cohen said, referring to the day that Trump is expected to be arraigned. READ FULL STORYMike Pence, who Trump supporters said they wanted to hang during the Capitol riot, is still defending Trump post-indictmentThen-President Donald Trump shakes then-Vice President Mike Pence's hand after a 2019 rally.Zach Gibson/Getty ImagesFormer Vice President Mike Pence — who a pro-Trump mob threatened to kill during the Capitol riot — found a way to defend his ex-boss former President Donald Trump on CNN. Speaking to CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Thursday, Pence called the "unprecedented indictment" of a former president an "outrage." "I really do believe that this decision today is a great disservice to the country. And the idea that for the first time in American history, a former president would be indicted on a campaign finance issue to me, it just smacks of political prosecution," Pence said. "I know President Trump can take care of himself in the courtroom, and he ought to focus on that right now," Pence added. READ FULL STORYLindsey Graham tried to fundraise for Trump on Fox News hours after the former president was indictedSen. Lindsey Graham thrice called for viewers to visit Trump's donation page.Brandon Bell/Getty Images and Stefani Reynolds - Pool/Getty ImagesSouth Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham tried to raise money for former President Donald Trump's 2024 campaign just hours after the latter was indicted."But you need to help this man, Donald J. Trump, they're trying to drain him dry. He's spent more money on lawyers than most people spend on campaigns," said Graham, a longtime Trump ally, in an interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity."Give the man some money so he can fight," Graham added. READ FULL STORYStormy Daniels says orders for 'Team Stormy' merch are 'pouring in' after Trump's indictmentStormy Daniels.Phillip Faraone/Getty ImagesAdult film actress Stormy Daniels said orders are "pouring in" for her merchandise and autographs after former President Donald Trump was indicted on Thursday."Thank you to everyone for your support and love! I have so many messages coming in that I can't respond," tweeted Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford. "Also don't want to spill my champagne." Daniels' tweets about the Trump indictment have been nothing short of jubilant. It's unsurprising considering that since 2018, she has sued Trump, called him a liar, repeatedly poked fun at him, and tussled online with the former president's supporters. As more signs indicated that Trump would be indicted, the self-described porn star also began promoting her merchandise store, which sells products such as calendars, apparel, and signed photos. READ FULL STORYTrump's Truth Social post about respecting the grand jury aged really poorly"These Thugs and Radical Left Monsters have just INDICATED the 45th President of the United States of America," Trump wrote after his Thursday indictment in New York.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesFormer President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he had "SUCH RESPECT" for the New York grand jury — but he was singing a different tune just one day later, after he got indicted. In a Truth Social post on Wednesday, before getting indicted, Trump wrote: "I HAVE GAINED SUCH RESPECT FOR THIS GRAND JURY, & PERHAPS EVEN THE GRAND JURY SYSTEM AS A WHOLE."In a Truth Social post after his indictment, however, Trump seemed to have lost his newfound respect for the jury."These Thugs and Radical Left Monsters have just INDICATED the 45th President of the United States of America," Trump wrote on Thursday. "THE USA IS NOW A THIRD WORLD NATION, A NATION IN SERIOUS DECLINE. SO SAD!" READ FULL STORYTrump's grip on the GOP is so total that even his 2024 rivals, from DeSantis to Pence, are rallying to him after the indictmentTrump's biggest current and potential 2024 foes — including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis rallied to his side on Thursday evening.Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesCurrent and would-be Republican rivals largely rallied behind Donald Trump on Thursday, illustrating the difficulty the former president's primary foes will face as they try to navigate the fallout from a historic indictment.Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Trump's best-positioned potential rival, vowed not to cooperate with any extradition requests Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg may need to get Trump out of Florida. Insider previously reported how DeSantis has little power to thwart such a request as the Constitution requires interstate extradition."The weaponization of the legal system to advance a political agenda turns the rule of law on its head," DeSantis, who is expected to announce a presidential campaign in May, said in a statement. "It is un-American." READ FULL STORYWhat we know so farDemonstrators outside Manhattan Criminal Court following the news that a Grand Jury voted to indict former Pres. Donald TrumpAlan Chin/InsiderReporter Oma Seddiq took a step back to explain what we know so far in the Trump indictment case, including how it may impact his campaign. Read Full StoryDeSantis says Florida won't help extradite TrumpFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis.Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesRepublican Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida pledged Thursday that state officials would not help extradite former President Donald Trump from Florida to New York in a charged political attack on the prosecutor. DeSantis in a statement on Twitter accused Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg of "stretching the law to target a political opponent," though he didn't name Trump or Bragg. Trump is required by law to appear before a judge to address the criminal charges and is expected to voluntarily do so — rendering the extradition question moot for DeSantis, who is expected to enter the GOP presidential race soon where he'll need to siphon support from Trump's base. Read Full StoryTrump faces more than 30 counts related to business fraud: reportThough the exact charges are still sealed, sources tell CNN that Trump faces more than 30 counts as part of the indictment.Those low-level felony charges will likely relate to the 2016 election-eve hush-money payment to Stormy Daniels. They carry a potential maximum sentence of four years in prison. But a judge could also set a sentence of as little as zero jail plus probation. Why Biden has to stay quietPresident Joe Biden.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesGiven the rancor between the current president and his predecessor, Joe Biden may be tempted to celebrate Donald Trump becoming the first former president to get slapped with an indictment. Biden could certainly high-five First Lady Jill Biden in private. But in public, there are myriad reasons why Democrats hope Biden will play this unprecedented event in about as boring a way as possible.Read Full StoryThe indictment will not be unsealed until Trump is arraignedA source familiar with the case's planning tells Insider that Trump's indictment will be a felony, and will not be unsealed until Trump is arraigned. The former president is expected to surrender to authorities next week, according to his lawyer Joe Tacopina. Donald Trump Jr. decries his father's indictmentDonald Trump Jr. and former President Donald Trump in Hollywood, Florida, on September 11, 2021.Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty ImagesTrump Jr. took to Rumble, an online video platform, on Thursday to interrupt a scheduled airing of his interview with Joe Kent, a failed 2022 congressional candidate, to rant about the indictment.In the live segment, Trump Jr. called out Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and painted him as a corrupt prosecutor supported by billionaire George Soros — a false claim that likely stems from the fact that Soros funded a nonprofit called Color of Change which has donated to Bragg. A Soros spokesperson previously told Insider that none of the funds from Soros were specifically earmarked for Bragg.Trump Jr. also incorrectly stated that the district attorney is indicting Trump. Prosecutors can only bring forward evidence of a particular crime such as witness testimony. A New York grand jury ultimately voted to indict Trump.Trump Jr. added that the indictment was "weaponized justice at its absolute worst" and gave vague and ominous premonitions that this case represents a "battle for our existence."Read Full StoryStormy Daniels reacts to Trump's indictmentStormy Daniels at an adult entertainment fair in Berlin on October 18, 2018.Markus Schreiber/APAdult film star Stormy Daniels offered a two-word response to Thursday's news that a grand jury had voted to indict Donald Trump.Daniels quote-tweeted a Twitter user arguing that Trump's indictment, which is likely linked to a $130,000 payment to the porn star ahead of the 2016 election, should not be cause for celebration, but should instead be allowed to play out in the justice system."Thank you," Daniels wrote. Here's a timeline that spells out when Trump's marriages started and ended, as well as alleged and confirmed affairs and accusations of sexual misconduct that reportedly occurred during these periods: Read Full StoryWrongly accused Central Park 5 member cheered Trump's indictmentIn 1989, Trump bought newspaper advertisements calling for New York State to adopt the death penalty after an attack on a Central Park jogger.He made clear that he was speaking out because of the attack, though the ads did not explicitly call for the death penalty for the Central Park 5, the five Black and Latino teenagers who were wrongly convicted of assaulting and raping a White woman in Central Park.Now that Trump has been indicted in New York, a member of that exonerated group has a concise response: "Karma."Read Full StoryTrump raged about being 'INDICATED' in social media post about his indictmentFormer President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event at the South Carolina State House in Columbia, S.C., on January 28, 2023.AP Photo/Alex BrandonFormer President Donald Trump complained on Thursday about being "indicated" in New York, adding in all caps that "THIS IS AN ATTACK ON OUR COUNTRY THE LIKES OF WHICH HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE."Read Full StoryBragg's office: DA is coordinating with Trump's attorneys for his surrenderA spokesperson for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg confirmed Trump's team was notified of his indictment Thursday evening."This evening we contacted Mr. Trump's attorney to coordinate his surrender to the Manhattan D.A.'s Office for arraignment on a Supreme Court indictment, which remains under seal," the spokesperson said. "Guidance will be provided when the arraignment date is selected."Trump and his aides were caught off guard by his indictment, believing it was weeks away: New York TimesFormer President Donald TrumpBrendan Smialowski/Getty ImagesTrump and his aides were caught off guard by news of his indictment, believing the decision wouldn't come for weeks,  according to The New York Times' Maggie Haberman.The former US president is currently at Mar-a-Lago planning his next moves after the New York grand jury's decision to indict him, per the Times. Some advisors had been confident that the vote wouldn't come until the end of April. Keep ReadingTrump's GOP allies rally to his defense, blasting indictment as a 'politically motivated prosecution'Rep. Matt Gaetz addresses attendees during the Turning Point USA Student Action Summit on July 23, 2022, in Tampa, Florida.Phelan M. Ebenhack/AP PhotoFormer President Donald Trump's Republican allies in Congress are rallying to his defense after a Manhattan grand jury on Thursday voted to indict him — the first former president in American history to face criminal charges."A majority of Americans know Alvin Bragg's witch hunt is a politically motivated prosecution," Gaetz continued, referring to the Manhattan district attorney. "I continue to stand with President Trump as he has always stood with us."Read Full StoryTrump expected to surrender next week, his lawyer confirmsDonald Trump speaks during his meeting with Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at Winfield House, London on December 3, 2019.NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP via Getty ImagesTrump is expected to surrender to authorities next week, according to his lawyer Joe Tacopina.A trio of demonstrators outside the Manhattan DA's office unfurled a banner to celebrate Trump's indictment—Laura Italiano (@Italiano_Laura) March 30, 2023 Michael Cohen, a witness against Trump, says he thinks the former president 'is petrified'Michael Cohen arrives for his 15th sit-down with Manhattan district attorney's office prosecutors.Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesMichael Cohen, Donald Trump's former fixer-turned-nemesis, said in a statement Thursday that "no one is above the law."He went on to say that he stands by his testimony to the Manhattan DA's office.Cohen previously pleaded guilty to making a hush-money payment to Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election and was called as a witness before the grand jury that ultimately indicted Trump.Cohen also told MSNBC he believes Trump is "petrified" and that "this is one of his biggest fears."Read Full StoryFox News gasps, rallies around Trump as he is indictedFox News host Jesse WattersJohn Lamparski/Getty ImagesFox News anchors gasped in the studio as news broke about Trump's indictment.But some Fox News hosts immediately rallied around Donald Trump on Thursday evening."It is the stupidest thing I've ever seen, and I feel bad for the guy," co-host Jesse Watters said during the live taping of "The Five."As Trump has done previously, other hosts turned their ire on Bragg himself."He's such an incompetent boob," host Greg Gutfeld chimed in when another host was discussing how the indicted will now be part of history.Gutfeld also called the prosecutor "the MAGA Republican of the year," predicting that the charges have now secured Trump the GOP presidential nomination.Read Full StoryDonald Trump becomes the first former president to be criminally charged in US historyFormer President Donald TrumpJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesDonald Trump is the first former president to ever be criminally charged in US history. A Manhattan grand jury has indicted Trump, his attorney, Joe Tacopina, confirmed to Insider.His indictment will likely interfere with his third bid for president in the upcoming 2024 election. The indictment comes after a years-long investigation by the Manhattan district attorney's office into Trump's business dealings and whether he violated New York state laws when his lawyer paid $130,000 to Stormy Daniels.Daniels says she and Trump had an affair in the 2000s, and that he and his lawyer, Michael Cohen, paid her to keep quiet during the 2016 election campaign. Cohen took a plea deal with prosecutors and has said that Trump approved of the payment.Trump has denied that there was ever an affair and said he has done "absolutely nothing wrong," calling the probe politically motivated.Stormy Daniels made a surprise appearance in Manhattan DA's Trump probe just before the indictmentAdult film star Stormy Daniels met with New York prosecutors last Wednesday over their probe into former President Donald Trump's hush money payment to her in 2016, her lawyer, Clark Brewster, said. Brewster said Daniels "responded to questions and has agreed to make herself available as a witness, or for further inquiry if needed."—Stormy Daniels (@StormyDaniels) March 15, 2023Daniels said she had an affair with Trump in the mid-2000s and that he and former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen paid her in exchange for her silence during Trump's first presidential campaign.Read Full StoryRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

A New York grand jury voted to indict Donald Trump last week, making him the first former president to be criminally charged. Donald Trump.José Luis Villegas/AP Former president Donald Trump has been arrested. Trump will be arraigned in Manhattan court on Tuesday after being indicted last week. The case comes after a years-long probe into an alleged $130,000 hush-money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels.  Donald Trump is now in custodyDonald Trump holds up a fist to onlookers as he leaves to be taken into custody and arraigned.APDonald Trump surrendered into the custody of the Manhattan district attorney's office at 1:22 p.m. on Tuesday.He will remain under arrest until mid-afternoon, when he'll enter a plea of "not guilty" and a judge will let him go home.—Noah Hurowitz (@NoahHurowitz) April 4, 2023 Read Full StoryTrump is headed to his arraignment along with police and Secret Service agents—The Associated Press (@AP) April 4, 2023 Donald Trump has left Trump Tower to a waiting caravan of vehicles on Manhattan's 56th Street. He emerged from the building under a golden awning to a contingent of NYPD, FDNY, and Secret Service vehicles that had been screened by police dogs.As he stepped out, he held up a fist to onlookers.The former president will now drive downtown to 100 Centre Street for his historic arraignment.   Marjorie Taylor Greene's rally speech lasts less than 10 minutesMarjorie Taylor Greene during her minutes-long speech at a small pro-Trump rally on Tuesday in New York City.ReutersGeorgia GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's rally speech lasted less than 10 minutes in the park outside the lower Manhattan courthouse where Donald Trump is set to be arraigned later Tuesday.Greene used a megaphone during her less speech at the planned rally where the media outnumbered backers of Trump."The government has been weaponized against [Trump]," Greene told the swarm of press and Trump supporters before her. "I am here to protest, use my voice and take a stand. Every American should take a stand."Greene called Trump an "innocent man," saying, "We cannot tolerate this injustice in the United States of America."The rally to support Trump then quickly devolved into a political demonstration featuring Greene's usual talking points against Democrats."Democrats are the party of violence," Greene said as she called the Republican Party "the party of peace."As Greene left the park after the minutes-long speech, she was rushed away from the rally amid a crush of reporters and demonstrators, as people could be heard shouting for her to "get the fuck out of my city!"  Anti-Trump protesters outnumbered his supporters outside the courthouseAnti-Trump demonstrators stand behind a metal barricade at the NYC courthouse before Donald Trump's arraignmentJacob ShamsianThe protesters chanted "Lock him up!"Trump, in an all-caps rant, wants the trial moved to Staten Island where more of his voters liveFormer President Donald Trump.Scott Olson/Getty ImagesIn an all-caps message posted online before his arraignment, Donald Trump railed against his upcoming criminal case, saying it wouldn't be fair because Manhattan voters didn't support him."VERY UNFAIR VENUE, WITH SOME AREAS THAT VOTED 1% REPUBLICAN," the former US president wrote on his TruthSocial website. "THIS CASE SHOULD BE MOVED TO NEARBY STATEN ISLAND - WOULD BE A VERY FAIR AND SECURE LOCATION FOR THE TRIAL."Staten Island was the only New York City borough to have a majority of voters support Trump in the 2020 election.Demonstrators outnumbered by reporters before Trump's arraignmentPro-Trump supporters, a man dressed in a Donald Trump costume, and serial liar George Santos were among the small crowd gathering at lower Manhattan's Collect Pond Park.Supporters and spectators started gathering at the park Tuesday morning, which is near the Manhattan Criminal Court where former President Donald Trump will be arraigned this afternoon. But reporters and journalists vastly outnumbered the demonstrators Tuesday morning. —Jacob Shamsian ⚖️ (@JayShams) April 4, 2023 Santos appeared on the pro-Trump side of Collect Pond Park accompanied by a small entourage and was immediately swarmed by a crush of cameras and press. Santos repeated "I'm here to support the President" and then left the park after about 5 minutes of being completely surrounded by reporters and bystanders jeering at him.The park will be the site of a 10:30 a.m. pro-Trump rally hosted by The New York Young Republicans and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. Trump's Secret Service agents would accompany him if he went to jail, retired US judge saysThen-US President Donald Trump walks with Secret Service agents in Yuma, Arizona, in August 2017.REUTERS/Joshua RobertsSecret Service agents would accompany former President Donald Trump if he went to jail, a retired US judge told Sky News.Joseph Cosgrove, formerly of the Court of Common Pleas of the 11th Judicial District in Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court, said agents would follow him to jail for his protection."Let's assume the worst for Mr Trump: if he were sentenced to some sort of confinement, he would be confined with his secret service agents," Cosgrove said.Former presidents are entitled to Secret Service protection for life under federal law.Former Secret Service officials told Insider's Robin Bravender and Dave Levinthal last November that if Trump went to prison for any reason Secret Service agents would very likely follow him, though they said an agent wouldn't end up in a cell with him.Experts say that Trump is unlikely to face any jail time if he is convicted, and it is more likely that he will be subjected to a fine, community service, or probation.Read Full Story This is the scene outside the court, as Trump is due to be arraignedOutside the court on Tuesday morning.Jacob Shamsian/InsiderMore than 100 reporters stood in line outside of Manhattan Criminal Court at 6:30 a.m. on Tuesday.Trump is expected to be arraigned in the afternoon, but journalists began gathering at 100 Centre Street by 2:45 p.m. on Monday to secure one of the limited seats inside the courtroom.Some outlets hired people to wait in the line overnight so reporters could catch a few hours rest before returning early Tuesday morning.The New York Supreme Court judge overseeing Tuesday's hearing noted the historic nature of the proceedings in a Monday court order."That this indictment involves a matter of monumental significance cannot possibly be disputed. Never in the history of the United States has a sitting or past President been indicted on criminal charges," Judge Juan Merchan wrote.He went on to say that Trump's arraignment has "generated unparalleled public interest and media attention."While Merchan acknowledged the importance of the press, he ruled against broadcasting the proceedings live after Trump's lawyers argued that doing so would create a "circus-like atmosphere."Merchan also ruled that no electronic devices would be allowed inside the courtroom. Five pool photographers will be permitted to take still photos from the jury box for a limited time before the proceedings, and the use of cameras will be permitted in the hallways.Nearby the courthouse, Trump supporters are expected to start gathering by 10:30 a.m.The New York Young Republicans are holding a pro-Trump rally at lower Manhattan's Collect Pond Park, which is adjacent to the courthouse.Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has publicized the event, calling for those in attendance to wear MAGA hats.Hours from his own arraignment, Trump says Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg should 'INDICT HIMSELF'Trump attacked Bragg in a Truth Social post on Monday.Gotham/GC Images and Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesOn the eve of his arraignment in New York, former President Donald Trump took to social media to declare that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg should "INDICT HIMSELF."Trump, who was indicted on Thursday and is expected to surrender on April 4, lashed out at Bragg in a Truth Social post on Monday."Wow! District Attorney Bragg just illegally LEAKED the various points, and complete information, on the pathetic Indictment against me," Trump wrote on Monday."Now, if he wants to really clean up his reputation, he will do the honorable thing and, as District Attorney, INDICT HIMSELF," added Trump.Trump did not elaborate on why he thought Bragg leaked any information from the sealed indictment and did not provide any evidence to prove his claim. READ FULL STORYTough times in the Trump press lineAn Associated Press journalist found an ingenious way to work while waiting in line to secure a press seat at former President Donald Trump's arraignment. Bobby Calvan put an old pizza box on top of a rusty garbage can to create a makeshift desk, per a tweet by his colleague Mike Sisak, also an AP reporter.—Mike Sisak (@mikesisak) April 3, 2023   Trump is slated to be arraigned tomorrow in New York. Calvan did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.Trump lawyer Joe Tacopina warns that we might be on the 'eve of destruction' the night before Trump's arraignmentFormer President Donald Trump arrives at Trump Tower on April 03, 2023 in New York City.Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesJoe Tacopina, a lawyer for former President Donald Trump, likened the night before Trump's arraignment to the "eve of destruction."In an interview on Monday on Fox News, Tacopina — who is representing Trump in New York — said he could not believe that the ex-president was going to be arraigned on Tuesday."What's extraordinary is that tomorrow is actually happening, that's what's extraordinary. I just cannot believe it, I  think we're on the eve of destruction. It's just like surreal to me," Tacopina said.Tacopina's words on Fox News were similar to the ominous sentiment expressed in Trump's previous Truth Social posts. On March 23, Trump predicted that there would be "death & destruction" if he is indicted. Trump on March 18 also called on his followers to protest" and "take our nation back," echoing his own rhetoric before the January 6 Capitol riot.READ FULL STORYThe arraignment will not be broadcast live, judge rulesFormer U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the America First Agenda Summit, at the Marriott Marquis hotel July 26, 2022 in Washington, DC.Drew Angerer / Staff / Getty ImagesNew York Supreme Court Judge Juan Merchan has rejected the media's request to allow cameras for Trump's arraignment Tuesday. A small number of photographers will be allowed to take pictures before the arraignment begins, Merchan ruled Monday night.Earlier on Monday, attorneys for Trump said they don't want cameras in the courtroom because it will "create a circus-like atmosphere."Read Full StoryThe supporters will make their way downtown for a protest this eveningTaisha Parrot, a researcher from Jamaica, Queens, came out with her Trump flag on high, sporting an "ULTRA MAGA" baseball cap.She came out for "two main reasons: one to support Trump and two, to protest what Alvin Bragg is doing.""The only reason they are doing this is because he's ahead in the polls," she said. "He's gotten higher in the polls as a result of this."She said she and a couple of other protesters were on their way downtown to another protest by the New York Republican Latinos later tonight.Supporters are flying in to support TrumpReutersArlinda Rainey, 52, and her mother, 75-year-old Marjorie Westerfield flew all the way from Central Kentucky to support Trump as he arrived in New York City to face a historic indictment.The pair spent a combined $6,000 for airfare and accommodations in the big city."I feel like they are doing him wrong," Special Education teacher, Raniey said. "I feel like we were safer with him as president."Raniey said she didn't care much for New York City."Too many people."The ladies took shelter in an atrium area in Trump Tower as the former presidents motorcade rolled down 56th street to the side entrance."We're just here to show support and to let him know to keep going strong," Westerfield said.Trump has arrived at Trump TowerTrump arrives at Trump Tower on Monday April 3, 2023.(AP Photo/Bryan Woolston)Trump arrived to Trump Tower just after 4 p.m. ET to a small group of supporters lining Madison Avenue. He's expected to stay the night in Manhattan before his court appearance Tuesday. Reporters are already lining up to get a chance to attend Trump's public arraignment —Liam Quigley (@_elkue) April 3, 2023 Police brace for protests by erecting barricades and closing streetsPolice trucked in stacks of barricades as possible indictment of former President Donald Trump looms.El Calabrese/InsiderNYPD erected barricades in front of Trump Tower and the courthouse in preparation for potential protests.An NYPD spokesperson told Insider there are "no current credible threats" to the city.Read MoreTrump's legal team said cameras in the courtroom would cause a 'circus-like atmosphere.'Former President Donald Trump speaks to supporters at his rally in Waco, Texas, on March 25, 2023.AP Photo/Evan VucciThe former president's lawyers say they want to avoid "a circus-like atmosphere" as Trump is arraigned in a Manhattan criminal court.Trump himself has called for mass protests outside on social media.Read Full StoryThe NYC park where Marjorie Taylor Greene is hosting the rally for Trump used to be an open sewer the city tried to fill in with land but it sunk (and stunk)An engraved illustration shows the 'Collect Pond' in the 1700s.Interim Archives/Getty ImagesHours before former President Donald Trump plans to surrender to the Manhattan District Attorney Tuesday, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene will join a rally in New York City's Collect Pond Park to protest the former president's indictment.But the park — just steps outside of the DA's office in downtown Manhattan — wasn't always the patch of greenery inside New York's concrete jungle. The small area was once a pond filled with drinking water that later became a disgusting, stinky open sewer and the center of a gang-filled slum where mobsters like Lucky Luciano and Al Capone got their start.Keep ReadingThe only way you'll see Donald Trump's mugshot is if someone leaks it or he shares it himselfFormer U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the America First Agenda Summit, at the Marriott Marquis hotel July 26, 2022 in Washington, DC.Drew Angerer / Staff / Getty ImagesThe indicted former US president will be fingerprinted and will pose for a mugshot ahead of his New York City courtroom arraignment on Tuesday, but the photograph won't be made public unless it is leaked or released by Trump himself.Under New York law, mugshots are not public records. Read Full StoryTrump has left Florida on his jet before his arraignment on TuesdayTrump and his Boeing 757.Andrew Milligan/PA Images via Getty ImagesDonald Trump's jet departed from Florida Monday afternoon, according to an Instagram account tracking its movements.The 757 airliner — which is decked out with the word "Trump" painted on it — left West Palm Beach.Trump was expected to leave Florida on Monday before his arraignment in Manhattan court on Tuesday.Trump announces Mar-a-Lago speech hours after Tuesday arraignmentFormer President Donald Trump announced Sunday that he would be speaking at his Palm Beach club Mar-a-Lago Tuesday evening at 8:15 p.m. — hours after his arraignment in New York. Trump is scheduled to be arraigned Tuesday afternoon. Then, he will be flying into New York on Monday night to voluntarily surrender himself on Tuesday, ahead of his appearance before a judge. It's pretty much a certainty that Trump will remain free afterward, probably without any bail set at all, Insider's Laura Italiano reported.Under New York's recently changed progressive bail laws, defendants can be ordered held on bail only if the judge finds that they are a flight risk. John Bolton says if Manhattan DA case flops, it could be 'rocket fuel' for the former presidentDonald Trump and John Bolton.Evan Vucci/Associated PressFormer national security advisor John Bolton said that if the Manhattan district attorney squanders Donald Trump's criminal case, it could be "rocket fuel" for the former president's campaign. "I'm not worried about Alvin Bragg hurting Donald Trump. I'm worried about Alvin Bragg benefiting Donald Trump," Bolton told CBS' "Face the Nation" on Sunday, referring to the DA overseeing the ex-president's criminal case.Read Full StoryChris Christie says the 'bravado from the Trump camp' toward the indictment 'is baloney' as the former president's arraignment approachesChris Christie.Lorenzo Bevilaqua/ABC via Getty ImagesFormer New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said the "bravado" displayed by former President Donald Trump after being indicted by a Manhattan grand jury is "baloney." Speaking on a panel on Sunday's "This Week" on ABC News, Christie said he was mostly reserving commentary on the content of the indictment because he wanted to read it first, but then proceeded to offer several minutes of commentary.A grand jury indicted Trump last week after an investigation by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Brag into hush money paid to adult film actress Stormy Daniels prior to the 2016 election.Read Full StoryTrump lawyer Joe Tacopina says his client has a 'right to have an issue with everything' after Trump goes after Manhattan judgeJoe Tacopina, an attorney for Donald Trump, said the former president has a "right to have an issue with everything" after Trump claimed a judge involved in his Manhattan criminal case was biased against him.Tacopina echoed Trump's claims that a grand jury indictment handed down last week in Manhattan was a form of political persecution, but he stopped short of saying that he would request a different judge."Had he not been running for the presidency, he would not have been indicted," Tacopina said of Trump on CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday. "We are going to take the indictment, evaluate all our legal options, and pursue every one most vigorously." Read Full StoryFormer Arkansas GOP Gov. Asa Hutchinson announces run for president, says Trump should 'step aside' from the race after his indictmentGov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas.AP Photo/Manuel Balce CenetaFormer Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas formally announced that his is running for president on Sunday.Just two days earlier, on Friday, Hutchinson said former President Donald Trump should "step aside" from the 2024 presidential race after his indictment by the Manhattan District Attorney's Office.During an appearance on Fox Business, Hutchinson pointed to the integrity of serving in elected office as he spoke of the former president's criminal inquiry."When a public official is indicted, I think with regard to the office, the office is more important than the person and they should step aside. That standard should apply here. It is a distraction," Hutchinson said on the network.Read Full StoryTrump surges to a 26-point lead over Ron DeSantis in the 2024 GOP presidential primary post-indictment: pollFormer President Donald Trump; Florida Gov. Ron DeSantisGetty ImagesFormer President Donald Trump was already the front-runner among Republicans in the 2024 race for the White House, edging out a likely but yet-to-be-announced contender in Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida. But with his indictment by a Manhattan grand jury, Trump has surged ahead in a head-to-head matchup against DeSantis in a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, beating the Sunshine State politician by 26 percentage points among registered Republican voters and Independents who lean Republican. In the poll, 57% of those asked said they would vote for Trump, while 31% indicated that they would back DeSantis, which was one of the first surveys to be conducted after Thursday's indictment.Read Full StoryTrump's legal team may ask to move his criminal trial from Manhattan to more conservative-leaning Staten Island, report saysFormer President Donald Trump's defense team is considering asking to move his criminal trial to more conservative-leaning Staten Island, fearing that the former president wouldn't be able to receive a fair trial in Manhattan, according to Bloomberg.Trump's attorneys have not yet determined their final course of action on the matter, however, and are looking to first review the charges in the indictment from Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg Jr., an unnamed source told the news agency.The request has the veneer of politics, as Manhattan — or New York County — is one of the most Democratic-heavy jurisdictions in the country. Staten Island, meanwhile, has long been the most conservative of New York City's give boroughs.Read Full StoryTrump Organization employees were 'really happy' about Trump's indictment, Maggie Haberman saysNew York Times reporter Maggie Haberman on Friday said several Trump Organization employees texted her expressing their happiness over former President Donald Trump's indictment by the Manhattan District Attorney's office in connection with a hush money payment made to the adult film actress Stormy Daniels.After a Manhattan grand jury voted to indict Trump, Haberman, who wrote the book "Confidence Man" and is widely seen as the most prominent chronicler of the former president's tenure in the White House, said during a panel interview on CNN's "This Morning" that she began receiving messages from employees soon after news broke of his indictment."There is a long trail of people who feel burned in one way or another by Donald Trump. We certainly saw that in the White House," she said. "This was a pattern that existed for decades before the Trump Organization."Read Full StoryMichael Cohen's lawyer says case against Trump is 'very solid' and jurors only need ask themselves if Trump had 'any political motivation' for the Stormy Daniels paymentDonald Trump's former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen, center, is joined by his attorney, Lanny Davis, before Cohen's grand jury appearance in mid-March.Mary Altaffer/APMichael Cohen's attorney believes the criminal case against Donald Trump in the Manhattan District Attorney's investigation is "very solid" though it's "not going to be an easy case." Cohen, Trump's longtime political fixer turned political adversary, is expected to be a "principal witness" in the case if it goes to trial, attorney Lanny Davis told NBC's "Meet the Press NOW" on Friday."It's not going to be an easy case because they do have to create a novel law," Davis said. "But here is why I think it's a very, very solid case, maybe more solid than any of the other cases. Everyone's missing this."There is only "one question that the jury has to ask and answer," Davis told NBC News host Chuck Todd. "The legal issue will be decided by a judge, but the factual question is very simple: Did Donald Trump have any political motivation when he directed Michael to pay $130,000 to Stormy?" Davis said. "Any." Read Full StoryDonald Trump's NFT trading cards jumped in value to almost $1,700 after Manhattan indictmentFormer President Donald Trump.AP Photo/Alex BrandonDonald Trump's digital trading card NFTs have spiked in value, with the highest sale at nearly $1,700 following his indictment in the Manhattan district attorney's investigation. According to Newsweek, the floor price of Trump's NFT trading cards was 0.41 Ethereum (ETH), or about $748 USD, on March 30 when Trump was indicted. As of publication on April 1, the floor price ticked up 1.9% to $967.38, or 0.5299 ETH, according to NFT Price Floor, a site that indexes and complies data on NFT trading and marketplaces. Trump's NFTs had an average sale of 0.5737 ETH, or roughly $1,000 — rising 1.45% in the last 24 hours. The highest sale soared to 0.9298 ETH, which equates to nearly $1,700 — an increase of 10.16% in the same period, according to the site. Read Full StoryTrump raised more than $4 million within 24 hours following grand jury indictment, his campaign saysDonald Trump.Anna Moneymaker/Getty ImagesTrump raised more than $4 million within 24 hours after news broke that a Manhattan grand jury had voted to indict him, his campaign said on Friday.The campaign made the revelation in a press release and email to subscribers, which described the case as the "Alvin Bragg witch hunt."The statement hailed the influx of donations and said that over 25% came from first-time donors and that the average contribution was $34. Read Full StoryTrump's indictment may 'embolden' prosecutors to bring more charges against him for January 6 and his efforts to overturn the election, legal experts sayFormer President Donald Trump's list of legal woes could get more complicated following his indictment by a New York grand jury on Thursday. Trump is the first ex-president to ever be charged with a crime after an investigation into a hush-money payment made to the adult-film actress Stormy Daniels. Although the charges have not yet been made public, ex-Manhattan prosecutors say that Trump risks felony-level state records-fraud charges that carry punishments of up to four years in prison.The chances of him going to prison, however, are slim to none.But several legal experts told Insider the indictment could make other prosecutors "emboldened" to charge him in other ongoing investigations related to his role in the Capitol riot, an alleged scheme to overturn election results in Georgia, and his handling of government records.Keep ReadingCan Trump still run for president after being indicted?Former President Donald Trump has been indicted by a grand jury in New York, triggering a wave of questions about the indictment's potential implications on his 2024 presidential campaign, and whether Trump could go on to serve as president again after being formally accused of a felony crime.A presidential candidate can, indeed, still run for office despite being indicted for a crime, according to the US Constitution. Read Full StoryWhat is an indictment? What it means for someone to be indicted by a grand jury and why Trump was chargedPeople demonstrate outside of Manhattan Criminal Court on March 21, 2023, after the news that former Pres. Donald Trump may soon face a criminal indictment.Alan Chin for InsiderA Manhattan grand jury voted to indict former President Donald Trump on Thursday after hearing evidence for months about his alleged role in a hush-money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.With that vote, 76-year-old Trump became the first former US president ever to be indicted on criminal felony charges in American history.So what does it mean to be indicted? An indictment is a formal notice to a defendant that they have been charged with a crime, according to the US Department of Justice.Read Full StoryTrump to fly to New York Monday night ahead of Tuesday arraignment: reportsGetty/Drew AngererTrump will fly to New York Monday night, the eve of his expected arraignment, per the Washington Post.Trump lead attorney Susan Necheles told Insider that Trump is expecting to voluntarily surrender on Tuesday at Manhattan Criminal Court. Final arrangements were still being hammered out on Friday among the NYPD, court staff and the Secret Service, she said. Is Trump going to jail?The chances of Donald Trump spending any time behind bars over his historic New York indictment are slim to none, according to legal experts. First-offenders virtually never go to jail on the kind of non-violent, low-level felonies that Trump's lawyers currently believe he faces, from an indictment with an expected top charge of falsifying business records in the first degree, But Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg can still seek to lock Trump up if he is convicted, experts told Insider, given that felony falsifying of business records allows a sentence of anywhere from zero jail time up to a maximum of four years in prison.Prosecutors can also ask for more likely penalties — including a hefty fine, community service, and probation — in the event that the 76-year-old former president is convicted.Read Full StoryMeet Juan Merchan, the Manhattan judge scheduled to oversee Donald Trump's criminal caseJudge Juan Merchan presides during the Trump Organization's criminal tax trial in Manhattan Criminal Court, New York City, U.S., November 15, 2022 in this courtroom sketch.REUTERS/Jane RosenbergFollowing his indictment this week, Donald Trump is poised to face an old nemesis in court: Judge Juan Manuel Merchan.Merchan is overseeing the Manhattan district attorney's criminal case against the ex-president. He was spotted going into a Manhattan courthouse on Thursday evening, likely to review the indictment voted on by a grand jury hours earlier. That same day, he issued an order allowing prosecutors to disclose the existence of the indictment, which is normally a closely-held secret. On Friday, court security put extra restrictions near his chambers.Trump and Merchan have a history. The judge oversaw last fall's criminal trial against the Trump Organization. The company's CFO, Allen Weisselberg, pleaded guilty to financial crime charges and testified in the case. A jury convicted Trump's company of numerous financial fraud charges.Trump isn't fond of the judge.Read Full StoryTrump's lawyers promise a 'smooth surrender' but don't expect him to take a plea dealDonald Trump's lead attorney doesn't expect the former president to take a plea deal, adding that he's a "tough guy" who is "resolved to fight" against any and all charges brought his way.Still lawyer Susan Necheles told Insider "it will be a smooth surrender" when Trump turns himself in to face the charges against him. Lindsey Graham says Trump should 'smash some windows,' sniping at New York's crime policiesSen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC).Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesSen. Lindsey Graham joked that Trump should "punch a cop" on his way to being booked in Manhattan, saying it would be a way for Trump to avoid prosecution.The barb was a reference to Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg's crime policies in New York City, which Republicans have targeted as far back as the 2022 election as being too soft on criminals.Read Full StoryIvanka Trump offers up short statement after her father's indictmentIvanka Trump listens during an event in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on August 4, 2020.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesThe former first daughter wrote in an Instagram story that she was "pained" for her father and country.Her three-sentence-long statement added: "I appreciate the voices across the political spectrum expressing support and concern."Read Full StoryManhattan DA office blasts House RepublicansManhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.AP Photo/Seth WenigManhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's office brushed off House GOP's threats of investigation, warning three committee chairmen not to interfere with the prosecution of former President Donald Trump."Like any other defendant, Mr. Trump is entitled to challenge these charges in court and avail himself of all processes and protections that New York State's robust criminal procedure affords," a lawyer for Bragg's office wrote in a letter dated Friday to Reps. Jim Jordan of Ohio, James Comer of Kentucky, and Bryan Steil of Wisconsin, chairmen of the powerful House Judiciary, Oversight, and Administration committees, respectively. "What neither Mr. Trump nor Congress may do is interfere with the ordinary course of proceedings in New York State," the DA's general counsel, Leslie Dubeck, added.Keep ReadingTrump's indictment kickstarts a round of memesPresident Donald Trump uses his cellphone during a roundtable discussion at the White House in in Washington DC, on June 18, 2020.Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty ImagesWhile the news of the indictment stirred Trump, his allies, his opponents, and the media into a frenzy, it also spurred some top-quality memes across social media, from references to the popular show "Succession" to Gwyneth Paltrow ski trial comparisons. Keep ReadingTrump was smiling and glad-handing fans at Mar-a-Lago as news of his indictment crashed around him, resort guests sayFormer President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida.Charles Trainor Jr./Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty ImagesFormer President Donald Trump was all smiles Thursday night, guests told Insider, describing an alternate reality at his Mar-a-Lago club as news of his historic indictment broke.Read MoreTrump is 'ready to be combative' defending himself, his lawyer says in NBC interviewFormer President Donald Trump's attorney, Joe Tacopina, appears on NBC's "Today" on March 31, 2023.NBC Today show/TwitterNBC's "Today" show interviewed Trump lawyer Joe Tacopina on Friday, who said his client is "ready to be combative" in defending himself.Tacopina said Trump was "initially shocked" by the news of the indictment, appearing to confirm reporting from news outlets which said the news caught him off-guard.He said that shock was soon replaced by "typical Donald Trump posture where he's ready to be combative on something that he believes is an injustice."Tacopina also told NBC that there's "zero" chance Trump will take a plea deal, adding: "It's not gonna happen."He said raised the prospect that the charges may not even make it to trial, saying there were "substantial legal challenges," though he did not give specifics.Recap: Where we stand the morning after Trump's indictment made historyFormer President Donald Trump speaks with reporters while in flight on his plane after a campaign rally in Waco, Texas on March 25, 2023.Evan Vucci/APIt's been around 12 hours since news broke that former President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury, a first for an ex-president.Since then, his allies rallied to his defense and even his 2024 rivals, Gov. Ron DeSantis and former VP Mike Pence, joined in.Meanwhile, Stormy Daniels, the porn star who received the hush-money payment at the center of the case, said she has been celebrating with champagne.Demonstrators congregated outside the Manhattan DA's office last night, while others met outside Mar-a-Lago, where Trump was staying.Trump raged at being "INDICATED" — seemingly not noticing his typo — and is said to have been shoring up his support since.He is planning to surrender to authorities next week, his lawyer Joe Tacopina said.You can find more detail below, and Insider will be bringing more updates through Friday as the story develops.Trump calls Capitol Hill allies to bolster support, tells them he will fight charges: CNNThen-President Donald Trump uses his cellphone at the White House on June 18, 2020.Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty ImagesTrump has been calling up allies on Capitol Hill for "check-ins" and to bolster support following the announcement of his indictment, GOP sources told CNN's Capitol Hill reporter Melanie Zanona.He spoke to members of the House GOP leadership and lawmakers serving on committees that are trying to investigate Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, telling them he plans to fight the charges, Zanona said on Twitter.People on Chinese social media say Trump's indictment embarrassed the US and made China look goodA Weibo montage of AI-generated images shows what life would be like if "comrade" Trump retires and "returns home" to China.Screenshot/WeiboThe indictment has Chinese social media users posting a flurry of memes calling him "Comrade Nation Builder" — a hero who's strengthening China by embarrassing the US.The idea behind the "Comrade Nation Builder" nickname on Weibo, China's version of Twitter, is that Trump is an ally of China who went to Washington for the sole purpose of sabotaging America with wild antics and outrageous policies."Would you like to join the Party, Comrade Nation Builder?" a person on Weibo wrote, referring to the Chinese Communist Party, which Trump considers a sworn enemy.  READ FULL STORYTrump went from joking about 'golden handcuffs' to being 'irritated' and 'deflated,' Washington Post reportsFormer US President Donald Trump speaks during a visit to the border wall near Pharr, Texas on June 30, 2021.Sergio Flores/AFP via Getty ImagesTrump was joking with aides and in high spirits which vanished when the New York indictment took him and his staffers by surprise, per The Washington Post.The Post spoke to an aide who said Trump was joking about "golden handcuffs" in the days before he was indicted. He thought an indictment would not come for weeks, if at all, two advisers told The Post. One of the two advisers the Post spoke to said Trump quickly became "irritated" and "deflated" after the indictment. READ FULL STORYNew York prosecutors wanted Trump to surrender on Friday, but Trump's lawyers said the Secret Service needs more time to prepare his escort: PoliticoFormer President Donald Trump.Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty ImagesThe Manhattan district attorney's office wanted former President Donald Trump to surrender on Friday, but his lawyers said the Secret Service needed more time to arrange his escort, Politico reported.Trump, who was indicted on Thursday by a New York grand jury, is due in court on April 4.The negotiation around Trump's protection was confirmed by Joe Tacopina, Trump's lawyer, and an unnamed source in law enforcement, per Politico. READ FULL STORYMichael Cohen says Trump will join him in the ranks of 'convicted felons' soon: 'See you on Tuesday, pal'Donald Trump and Michael Cohen.Shane Bevel/NCAA Photos via Getty Images, Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesMichael Cohen, former President Donald Trump's one-time personal lawyer and fixer, gloated on CNN about how Trump may soon join him in the ranks of convicted felons. Speaking to CNN, Cohen admitted that he was a "convicted perjurer," a "convicted felon," and a "disbarred lawyer."But Cohen — who Trump's spokespeople have previously labeled a "disbarred felon" in statements to Insider — also alluded on CNN to how the label of "felon" might soon apply to Trump, too."Oh by the way for Donald, since we're talking about convicted felons, see you on Tuesday, pal," Cohen said, referring to the day that Trump is expected to be arraigned. READ FULL STORYMike Pence, who Trump supporters said they wanted to hang during the Capitol riot, is still defending Trump post-indictmentThen-President Donald Trump shakes then-Vice President Mike Pence's hand after a 2019 rally.Zach Gibson/Getty ImagesFormer Vice President Mike Pence — who a pro-Trump mob threatened to kill during the Capitol riot — found a way to defend his ex-boss former President Donald Trump on CNN. Speaking to CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Thursday, Pence called the "unprecedented indictment" of a former president an "outrage." "I really do believe that this decision today is a great disservice to the country. And the idea that for the first time in American history, a former president would be indicted on a campaign finance issue to me, it just smacks of political prosecution," Pence said. "I know President Trump can take care of himself in the courtroom, and he ought to focus on that right now," Pence added. READ FULL STORYLindsey Graham tried to fundraise for Trump on Fox News hours after the former president was indictedSen. Lindsey Graham thrice called for viewers to visit Trump's donation page.Brandon Bell/Getty Images and Stefani Reynolds - Pool/Getty ImagesSouth Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham tried to raise money for former President Donald Trump's 2024 campaign just hours after the latter was indicted."But you need to help this man, Donald J. Trump, they're trying to drain him dry. He's spent more money on lawyers than most people spend on campaigns," said Graham, a longtime Trump ally, in an interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity."Give the man some money so he can fight," Graham added. READ FULL STORYStormy Daniels says orders for 'Team Stormy' merch are 'pouring in' after Trump's indictmentStormy Daniels.Phillip Faraone/Getty ImagesAdult film actress Stormy Daniels said orders are "pouring in" for her merchandise and autographs after former President Donald Trump was indicted on Thursday."Thank you to everyone for your support and love! I have so many messages coming in that I can't respond," tweeted Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford. "Also don't want to spill my champagne." Daniels' tweets about the Trump indictment have been nothing short of jubilant. It's unsurprising considering that since 2018, she has sued Trump, called him a liar, repeatedly poked fun at him, and tussled online with the former president's supporters. As more signs indicated that Trump would be indicted, the self-described porn star also began promoting her merchandise store, which sells products such as calendars, apparel, and signed photos. READ FULL STORYTrump's Truth Social post about respecting the grand jury aged really poorly"These Thugs and Radical Left Monsters have just INDICATED the 45th President of the United States of America," Trump wrote after his Thursday indictment in New York.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesFormer President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he had "SUCH RESPECT" for the New York grand jury — but he was singing a different tune just one day later, after he got indicted. In a Truth Social post on Wednesday, before getting indicted, Trump wrote: "I HAVE GAINED SUCH RESPECT FOR THIS GRAND JURY, & PERHAPS EVEN THE GRAND JURY SYSTEM AS A WHOLE."In a Truth Social post after his indictment, however, Trump seemed to have lost his newfound respect for the jury."These Thugs and Radical Left Monsters have just INDICATED the 45th President of the United States of America," Trump wrote on Thursday. "THE USA IS NOW A THIRD WORLD NATION, A NATION IN SERIOUS DECLINE. SO SAD!" READ FULL STORYTrump's grip on the GOP is so total that even his 2024 rivals, from DeSantis to Pence, are rallying to him after the indictmentTrump's biggest current and potential 2024 foes — including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis rallied to his side on Thursday evening.Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesCurrent and would-be Republican rivals largely rallied behind Donald Trump on Thursday, illustrating the difficulty the former president's primary foes will face as they try to navigate the fallout from a historic indictment.Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Trump's best-positioned potential rival, vowed not to cooperate with any extradition requests Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg may need to get Trump out of Florida. Insider previously reported how DeSantis has little power to thwart such a request as the Constitution requires interstate extradition."The weaponization of the legal system to advance a political agenda turns the rule of law on its head," DeSantis, who is expected to announce a presidential campaign in May, said in a statement. "It is un-American." READ FULL STORYWhat we know so farDemonstrators outside Manhattan Criminal Court following the news that a Grand Jury voted to indict former Pres. Donald TrumpAlan Chin/InsiderReporter Oma Seddiq took a step back to explain what we know so far in the Trump indictment case, including how it may impact his campaign. Read Full StoryDeSantis says Florida won't help extradite TrumpFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis.Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesRepublican Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida pledged Thursday that state officials would not help extradite former President Donald Trump from Florida to New York in a charged political attack on the prosecutor. DeSantis in a statement on Twitter accused Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg of "stretching the law to target a political opponent," though he didn't name Trump or Bragg. Trump is required by law to appear before a judge to address the criminal charges and is expected to voluntarily do so — rendering the extradition question moot for DeSantis, who is expected to enter the GOP presidential race soon where he'll need to siphon support from Trump's base. Read Full StoryTrump faces more than 30 counts related to business fraud: reportThough the exact charges are still sealed, sources tell CNN that Trump faces more than 30 counts as part of the indictment.Those low-level felony charges will likely relate to the 2016 election-eve hush-money payment to Stormy Daniels. They carry a potential maximum sentence of four years in prison. But a judge could also set a sentence of as little as zero jail plus probation. Why Biden has to stay quietPresident Joe Biden.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesGiven the rancor between the current president and his predecessor, Joe Biden may be tempted to celebrate Donald Trump becoming the first former president to get slapped with an indictment. Biden could certainly high-five First Lady Jill Biden in private. But in public, there are myriad reasons why Democrats hope Biden will play this unprecedented event in about as boring a way as possible.Read Full StoryThe indictment will not be unsealed until Trump is arraignedA source familiar with the case's planning tells Insider that Trump's indictment will be a felony, and will not be unsealed until Trump is arraigned. The former president is expected to surrender to authorities next week, according to his lawyer Joe Tacopina. Donald Trump Jr. decries his father's indictmentDonald Trump Jr. and former President Donald Trump in Hollywood, Florida, on September 11, 2021.Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty ImagesTrump Jr. took to Rumble, an online video platform, on Thursday to interrupt a scheduled airing of his interview with Joe Kent, a failed 2022 congressional candidate, to rant about the indictment.In the live segment, Trump Jr. called out Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and painted him as a corrupt prosecutor supported by billionaire George Soros — a false claim that likely stems from the fact that Soros funded a nonprofit called Color of Change which has donated to Bragg. A Soros spokesperson previously told Insider that none of the funds from Soros were specifically earmarked for Bragg.Trump Jr. also incorrectly stated that the district attorney is indicting Trump. Prosecutors can only bring forward evidence of a particular crime such as witness testimony. A New York grand jury ultimately voted to indict Trump.Trump Jr. added that the indictment was "weaponized justice at its absolute worst" and gave vague and ominous premonitions that this case represents a "battle for our existence."Read Full StoryStormy Daniels reacts to Trump's indictmentStormy Daniels at an adult entertainment fair in Berlin on October 18, 2018.Markus Schreiber/APAdult film star Stormy Daniels offered a two-word response to Thursday's news that a grand jury had voted to indict Donald Trump.Daniels quote-tweeted a Twitter user arguing that Trump's indictment, which is likely linked to a $130,000 payment to the porn star ahead of the 2016 election, should not be cause for celebration, but should instead be allowed to play out in the justice system."Thank you," Daniels wrote. Here's a timeline that spells out when Trump's marriages started and ended, as well as alleged and confirmed affairs and accusations of sexual misconduct that reportedly occurred during these periods: Read Full StoryWrongly accused Central Park 5 member cheered Trump's indictmentIn 1989, Trump bought newspaper advertisements calling for New York State to adopt the death penalty after an attack on a Central Park jogger.He made clear that he was speaking out because of the attack, though the ads did not explicitly call for the death penalty for the Central Park 5, the five Black and Latino teenagers who were wrongly convicted of assaulting and raping a White woman in Central Park.Now that Trump has been indicted in New York, a member of that exonerated group has a concise response: "Karma."Read Full StoryTrump raged about being 'INDICATED' in social media post about his indictmentFormer President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event at the South Carolina State House in Columbia, S.C., on January 28, 2023.AP Photo/Alex BrandonFormer President Donald Trump complained on Thursday about being "indicated" in New York, adding in all caps that "THIS IS AN ATTACK ON OUR COUNTRY THE LIKES OF WHICH HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE."Read Full StoryBragg's office: DA is coordinating with Trump's attorneys for his surrenderA spokesperson for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg confirmed Trump's team was notified of his indictment Thursday evening."This evening we contacted Mr. Trump's attorney to coordinate his surrender to the Manhattan D.A.'s Office for arraignment on a Supreme Court indictment, which remains under seal," the spokesperson said. "Guidance will be provided when the arraignment date is selected."Trump and his aides were caught off guard by his indictment, believing it was weeks away: New York TimesFormer President Donald TrumpBrendan Smialowski/Getty ImagesTrump and his aides were caught off guard by news of his indictment, believing the decision wouldn't come for weeks,  according to The New York Times' Maggie Haberman.The former US president is currently at Mar-a-Lago planning his next moves after the New York grand jury's decision to indict him, per the Times. Some advisors had been confident that the vote wouldn't come until the end of April. Keep ReadingTrump's GOP allies rally to his defense, blasting indictment as a 'politically motivated prosecution'Rep. Matt Gaetz addresses attendees during the Turning Point USA Student Action Summit on July 23, 2022, in Tampa, Florida.Phelan M. Ebenhack/AP PhotoFormer President Donald Trump's Republican allies in Congress are rallying to his defense after a Manhattan grand jury on Thursday voted to indict him — the first former president in American history to face criminal charges."A majority of Americans know Alvin Bragg's witch hunt is a politically motivated prosecution," Gaetz continued, referring to the Manhattan district attorney. "I continue to stand with President Trump as he has always stood with us."Read Full StoryTrump expected to surrender next week, his lawyer confirmsDonald Trump speaks during his meeting with Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at Winfield House, London on December 3, 2019.NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP via Getty ImagesTrump is expected to surrender to authorities next week, according to his lawyer Joe Tacopina.A trio of demonstrators outside the Manhattan DA's office unfurled a banner to celebrate Trump's indictment—Laura Italiano (@Italiano_Laura) March 30, 2023 Michael Cohen, a witness against Trump, says he thinks the former president 'is petrified'Michael Cohen arrives for his 15th sit-down with Manhattan district attorney's office prosecutors.Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesMichael Cohen, Donald Trump's former fixer-turned-nemesis, said in a statement Thursday that "no one is above the law."He went on to say that he stands by his testimony to the Manhattan DA's office.Cohen previously pleaded guilty to making a hush-money payment to Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election and was called as a witness before the grand jury that ultimately indicted Trump.Cohen also told MSNBC he believes Trump is "petrified" and that "this is one of his biggest fears."Read Full StoryFox News gasps, rallies around Trump as he is indictedFox News host Jesse WattersJohn Lamparski/Getty ImagesFox News anchors gasped in the studio as news broke about Trump's indictment.But some Fox News hosts immediately rallied around Donald Trump on Thursday evening."It is the stupidest thing I've ever seen, and I feel bad for the guy," co-host Jesse Watters said during the live taping of "The Five."As Trump has done previously, other hosts turned their ire on Bragg himself."He's such an incompetent boob," host Greg Gutfeld chimed in when another host was discussing how the indicted will now be part of history.Gutfeld also called the prosecutor "the MAGA Republican of the year," predicting that the charges have now secured Trump the GOP presidential nomination.Read Full StoryDonald Trump becomes the first former president to be criminally charged in US historyFormer President Donald TrumpJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesDonald Trump is the first former president to ever be criminally charged in US history. A Manhattan grand jury has indicted Trump, his attorney, Joe Tacopina, confirmed to Insider.His indictment will likely interfere with his third bid for president in the upcoming 2024 election. The indictment comes after a years-long investigation by the Manhattan district attorney's office into Trump's business dealings and whether he violated New York state laws when his lawyer paid $130,000 to Stormy Daniels.Daniels says she and Trump had an affair in the 2000s, and that he and his lawyer, Michael Cohen, paid her to keep quiet during the 2016 election campaign. Cohen took a plea deal with prosecutors and has said that Trump approved of the payment.Trump has denied that there was ever an affair and said he has done "absolutely nothing wrong," calling the probe politically motivated.Stormy Daniels made a surprise appearance in Manhattan DA's Trump probe just before the indictmentAdult film star Stormy Daniels met with New York prosecutors last Wednesday over their probe into former President Donald Trump's hush money payment to her in 2016, her lawyer, Clark Brewster, said. Brewster said Daniels "responded to questions and has agreed to make herself available as a witness, or for further inquiry if needed."—Stormy Daniels (@StormyDaniels) March 15, 2023Daniels said she had an affair with Trump in the mid-2000s and that he and former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen paid her in exchange for her silence during Trump's first presidential campaign.Read Full StoryRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Only two Republicans besides Trump have so far made a White House run official, but numerous others are considering jumping in during the months ahead. Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an event at Mar-a-Lago on November 15, 2022 in Palm Beach, Florida.Joe Raedle/Getty Images Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy are the only 3 who have made a '24 GOP run official. But many others have been floating the possibility of entering the GOP contest. From Pence to DeSantis, here's how Republicans are laying the groundwork for presidential runs. Only three people are running for president in 2024 — at least officially. Former President Donald Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy are the only Republicans so far who have formally announced a 2024 presidential run, but numerous others are signaling that they're toying with the same idea. They're doing all the things they're supposed to do to test their chances: Visiting early primary states, writing books, showing up on the Sunday shows, campaigning with other Republicans ahead of the 2022 midterms, and weighing in publicly on President Joe Biden's policies — and even Trump's latest controversies. The next step will be hiring teams in Iowa and New Hampshire, Doug Heye, a longtime GOP aide and strategist, told Insider."You have got a stable of people who are essentially putting themselves all in the starting gates and all have their own timetable about when and if they decide to run," he said. Over the next few weeks and months, candidates would be floating what Kristin Davison, vice president and general consultant at Axiom Strategies, called "trial balloons" — in which they publicly raise the prospect of a run to see how donors and the press will react. Whoever seizes the nomination will likely face Biden, though he has yet to formally declare his candidacy. But, Heye said, "it's a real possibility" that the GOP lineup will large, much like it was in 2016.The stakes for losing the nomination aren't all bad, even if Republicans might come out of it with an unforgettable Trump nickname. After all, one of the people running for president could get chosen as the running mate or get a seat on the new president's Cabinet.And there are other perks to formally seeking the White House, such as raising one's profile and having a better shot at the presidency during a future cycle. Candidates could also sell a lot more books or leave politics to get a prime TV or radio show. "It's a long, difficult process," Heye said, "and you're more likely to lose than not."Trump's legal, political, and personal liabilities have been piling up in the last month, leading many in the GOP to say the party needs not just a fresh face but to be led by a candidate who can actually win. Insider identified 15 people who have or could seek the Republican nomination in 2024, including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Tim Scott of South Carolina who are up for re-election this cycle and will therefore be in campaign mode anyway. Each will have to effectively answer the "why I'm running for president" question and find their lane in the party, which will inevitably include defining — or redefining — their relationship with Trump. "I don't think you can discount any of them at this point," Heye said. "It's too early to determine who outside of Trump is a frontrunner." Scroll through to see the lawmakers who have either already declared or are potentially gearing up for run — and who has officially decided not to move forward:Former UN Ambassador Nikki HaleyFormer UN Ambassador Nikki Haley during a news conference in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday, October 26, 2022.Matt Rourke/AP PhotoHaley, 51, made a run official on February 15. During her campaign launch in Charleston, South Carolina, she portrayed herself as a young leader who could win elections. "If you're tired of losing, put your trust in a new generation," she said. Her experiences in public office give her the coveted pairing of having both executive and foreign policy chops, which are often viewed as crucial to the presidency. Aside from Trump and Pence, few other contenders would have such a profile. As a woman of Indian descent, she could also help bring in suburban women voters who graduated from college and expand the GOP coalition among people of color. She embraced her unique background during her campaign kickoff, wearing suffragette white and and calling herself "a brown girl growing up in a black-and-white world." Haley has had a turnaround from last year, when she said she wouldn't run for president if Trump were to seek the White House in 2024. She started our her career working in the private sector, joining her family's clothing business before leading the National Association of Women Business Owners.She served in the South Carolina House for three terms then was the state's governor for six years. In that time Haley delivered the GOP response to Obama's 2016 State of the Union Address.She pushed for the removal of the confederate flag from the South Carolina capitol after a gunman killed nine Black people at Emanuel Church in Charleston. Also as governor, Haley would not support a bill requiring transgender people to use the restroom that corresponded with the gender on their birth certificate. But in 2021 she wrote a commentary in the National Review saying transgender inclusion in sports was an "attack on women's rights."Haley was UN Ambassador under Trump for two years, and successfully pushed for the US to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem and defended Trump's decision to do so.In 2019 she published a memoir, "With All Due Respect: Defending America with Grit and Grace." Haley campaigned and fundraised in high-profile races during the 2022 midterms, including in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Haley told the National Republican Committee the day after the January 6 riot that Trump was "badly wrong" in his speech to supporters and that his "actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history." Tech entrepreneur Vivek RamaswamyRamaswamy founded the biopharmaceutical company Roivant Sciences.Fox NewsRamaswamy, 37, made his run official on February 22. Ramaswamy is an Indian-American tech entrepreneur who co-founded Strive Asset Management and serves as its executive chairman. He also founded the biopharmaceutical company Roivant Sciences."We're in the midst of a national identity crisis. Faith, patriotism & family are disappearing. We embrace one secular religion after another — from wokeism to climatism — to satisfy our deeper need for meaning," he said in a video announcing his campaign. "Yet we cannot even answer what it means to be an American." —Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) February 22, 2023 Ramaswamy wrote "Woke, Inc.: Inside Corporate America's Social Justice Scam" and "Nation of Victims: Identity Politics, the Death of Merit, and the Path Back to Excellence."The New Yorker nicknamed Ramaswamy the "CEO of Anti-Woke Inc." for his stance against environmental, social, and governance investing.In February, he delivered a speech about ESG at Trump National Doral, near Miami, before the exclusive and influential Council for National Policy at Trump Doral, where DeSantis was also a key speaker. Former Rep. Liz Cheney of WyomingRep. Liz Cheney, a Republican of Wyoming, campaigned with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat of Michigan, at an Evening for Patriotism and Bipartisanship event on November 1, 2022 in East Lansing, Michigan.Bill Pugliano/Getty ImagesCheney, 56, is the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney and one of Trump's toughest Republican critics.She voted to impeach Trump after the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, and served as vice chair of the House select committee investigating Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.Cheney's actions have come at a cost under the heavy weight of Trump's ire. House Republicans punished her by stripping her of her leadership post, and she lost her US House seat to Trump-backed GOP challenger Harriet Hageman during the state's August primary.But she hasn't been deterred. Cheney said on NBC's "Today" that she would do "whatever it takes" to keep Trump out of the White House in 2024, including "thinking about" running for president herself. "I wouldn't be surprised to see her run for president," Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah told Insider in August. Cheney voted with Trump on policy when he was in office, and remains a conservative, telling the Reagan Foundation and Institute in June 2022 that she believes "deeply in the policies of limited government, of low taxes, of a strong national defense." But Cheney said she sees a breaking point with the Republican Party, telling the Texas Tribune Festival in September that she would leave the GOP if Trump became the 2024 nominee.This could mean she'd run for president as an Independent. Already, she has shown she's willing to campaign against Republicans who falsely deny that Biden won the 2020 presidential election.In 2022, Cheney converted her House campaign finance committee into an anti-election denier leadership PAC called The Great Task. The PAC spent $500,000 on a TV ad in Arizona that urged voters to reject Republicans Kari Lake and Mark Finchem, who were running for governor and secretary of state, respectively. During the 2022 midterms, Cheney endorsed incumbent Democratic Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia. Both won their races. "We had to make sure that we prevented election deniers from taking power," she told The Washington Post's Global Women's Summit in November. Many outsiders see long odds for Cheney, though a poll conducted in Utah found she could be a top contender there. Sen. Ted Cruz of TexasSen. Ted Cruz, a Republican of Texas, speaks at a rally for Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker on November 10, 2022 in Canton, Georgia.Megan Varner/Getty ImagesCruz, 52, was the last Republican standing against Trump during the 2016 presidential nomination and had even announced that he'd pick former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina as his running mate. But Cruz — whom Trump nicknamed "Lyin' Ted" — lost following a nasty primary in which Trump levied highly personal attacks against the senator, including disparaging his wife's looks and falsely suggesting that Cruz's father had something to do with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Once Trump was in office, however, Cruz was one of the president's  biggest defenders. He voted to overturn the 2020 election results in Arizona and Pennsylvania and helped to secure Trump's acquittal in his second impeachment trial. In recent months, Cruz has been spending time in New Hampshire and during the midterms campaigned with retired football star Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff. While in the Senate, Cruz led the successful effort to zero out the unpopular fine on the uninsured created by the Affordable Care Act.More recently, Cruz used Ketanji Brown Jackson's Supreme Court confirmation hearing to score points for a potential 2024 run, questioning her about school curriculum on race. Before coming to Congress, Cruz was solicitor general in Texas, a role that involves arguing cases before the Supreme Court. When Insider asked whether Trump's latest missteps had provided an opening for him to jump into the 2024 presidential race, Cruz chuckled a bit before laying out what sounded like a near-term agenda. "I think the Senate is the battleground … and I'm going to do everything I can to lead the fight right here," Cruz told Insider before launching into a tirade about his mounting frustration with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's decision making. He made no specific mention of 2024, but also didn't work in the word "no" anywhere.Cruz told the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas that he'll seek reelection in Texas in 2024 when his term is up, though state law allows him to run for both offices at the same time.Former Gov. Chris Christie of New JerseyFormer New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition Saturday, November 19, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoChristie, 60, is famously said to have missed his moment for the White House because he didn't run for president when he was getting a lot of attention as New Jersey's governor in 2012, and instead fizzled out in 2016 when faced with Trump and numerous other contenders. But that hasn't stopped him from weighing another go at it. As recently as October, during an appearance on "Real Time with Bill Maher," Christie confirmed that he was considering a 2024 run.  In the last 18 months, Christie has been prominently involved in midterm campaigning and on the same speech circuit as other GOP hopefuls, including the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. He also put out a book in 2021, titled "Republican Rescue: Saving the Party From Truth Deniers, Conspiracy Theorists, and the Dangerous Policies of Joe Biden." Christie served two terms as a Republican governor in a blue state where Democrats controlled the legislature. In that role, he expanded Medicaid under Obamacare and passed bail reform.But he got flak over a handshake with then-President Barack Obama during Hurricane Sandy relief efforts, and was hurt politically after members of his administration created traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge.Christie became a lobbyist in 2020, when he had several healthcare clients but cut ties a year later, according to the lobbying disclosure database, in what could be a sign that he's lining up for a run.   Today, Christie blames Trump for the GOP's losses the last three election cycles and spent months saying Republicans "have to be the party of tomorrow, not the party of yesterday" if they ever want to win another election. His tone on Trump is a stunning turnaround for a man who was one of Trump's closest outside advisors when he was in the White House and was even on the shortlist to be Trump's chief of staff. Christie turned on Trump after January 6, saying the president violated his oath of office. More recently, he told The New York Times that Trump's candidacy was "untenable" and that the former president had had "poor judgement" after he dined at Mar-a-Lago with white supremacist and Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes. He also told the Washington Examiner that Republicans "fail the leadership test" when they don't call out Trump. Gov. Ron DeSantis of FloridaRepublican gubernatorial candidate for Florida Ron DeSantis speaks during an election night watch party at the Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on November 8, 2022.Giorgio VIERA / AFP via Getty ImagesDeSantis, 44, has an enviable mantle for the presidency in the Florida governor's office — and he's making the most of it. He famously and unapologetically reopened Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic, before federal health officials said he should. He banned certain teachings on race in workplaces and schools, and flew unsuspecting migrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. DeSantis also signed a contentious parental involvement and sex ed bill into law that critics call "Don't Say Gay." Instead of backing down over the outcry, he punished Disney for threatening to repeal it.Then there were the historic tax cuts in Florida with promises of more as well as viral videos bashing what he calls the "corporate media." All of these actions have portrayed the governor as a fighter. That's not the only part of his public persona on display. Often in tow is his beautiful, young family. His former newscaster wife, Florida's first lady Casey DeSantis, has been instrumental in his rise. To the New York Post, pictures of the DeSantis family on Election Night was "DeFuture." Others see a conservative JFK. But the politician DeSantis most often gets compared to is Trump. Numerous news profiles have described DeSantis as "Trump without the baggage," or as a more disciplined Trump. Yet after leaning on Trump during his first gubernatorial victory in 2018, DeSantis showed he could win big on his own, scoring a historic, 20-point victory in Florida in November without Trump's endorsement.As for presidential clues, DeSantis was also out with his first memoir in February: "The Courage to Be Free: Florida's Blueprint for America's Revival." During the midterms, he extended goodwill to other Republicans by campaigning with them. Back at home, he raked in a record amount of cash for a gubernatorial race. If the GOP primary were decided today, numerous polls show, DeSantis is the only person that gets close to Trump. DeSantis, a former conservative House member, has not pledged to serve out all four years of his second term. All of that has angered Trump. He has called DeSantis "Ron DeSanctimonious" and threatened to release damaging information about the governor. In turn, DeSantis has taunted Trump with passive aggressive events and comments. South Dakota Gov. Kristi NoemSouth Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, Texas, on July 11, 2021.Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesNoem, 51, has been on a Trump-related roller coaster ride as of late. In January 2021, the embattled former president tried to get her to primary fellow South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a lawmaker Trump took to calling a RINO (which stands for "Republican in name only") after Thune balked at his baseless claims of election fraud. Noem bowed out of joining Trump's revenge campaign, opting to focus on her own re-election plans. Once 2022 rolled around, she leaned hard into the GOP culture wars, promising voters that she'd bar transgender athletes from participating in women's sports, stamp out any "critical race theory" instruction in local schools, and decimate any "radical political ideologies" that annoyed her evangelical Christian base.Come July, Noem told CNN she'd be "shocked" if Trump tapped her to be his 2024 running mate. But she didn't rule out sliding into the VP slot — or mounting a challenge of her own. Since winning a second term in November, Noem has started taking on bigger foes, including the People's Republic of China. —Kristi Noem (@KristiNoem) November 30, 2022 Her state government-wide ban against the use of social media app TikTok scored her fawning interviews on conservative outlets including Fox News and Newsmax, beaming her into the homes of potential admirers who don't happen to reside in the Mount Rushmore State. Noem seems far less enthusiastic about Trump these days, telling reporters that the twice-impeached, scandal-plagued former president isn't Republicans' "best chance" at retaking the White House in 2024. She issued this prediction just days after Trump announced he was running again.  Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of ArkansasArkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson attends the National Governors Association summer meeting, Friday, July 15, 2022, in Portland, Maine.Robert F. Bukaty/AP PhotoHutchinson, 72, hasn't been shy about criticizing Biden or Trump. After Trump's 2024 announcement, he said the former president's "self-indulging message promoting anger has not changed," and also disavowed the Fuentes and Ye meeting at Mar-a-Lago.Hutchinson has taken at least five trips to Iowa through America Strong & Free, the nonprofit of which he's the honorary chairman and spokesperson."I am seriously looking at a run in 2024 because America and the Republican Party are not in the best place," he said in a statement provided to Insider. "I know how to get us back on track both in terms of leadership and facing the challenging issues of border security, increased violent crime and energy inflation." He'll make a decision in April, he told CNN. As governor of Arkansas for eight years, Hutchinson has pushed to make the state a leader in computer science, and signed several tax cuts into law, including lowering the state income tax rate from 7% to 4.9%. Hutchinson also signed bills into law blocking businesses from requiring customers and workers to show proof of COVID-19 vaccinations, and blocked state and local officials from obligating masks — a move he later said he regretted. He asked state lawmakers to create a carve-out for schools, but the Arkansas House rejected the proposal. While he signed an abortion ban into law in 2019 that took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, he said on CNN that he personally believes in exceptions for rape and incest."Many out there appreciate a 'consistent conservative,' even one they don't agree with all the time," Hutchinson told Insider. "I am not interested in the 'outrage of the day,' and I am committed to using my consistent conservative principles to guide me and our nation on important policy decisions." Hutchinson began his government career as a US attorney for the Western District of Arkansas under President Ronald Reagan, then went on to serve in the US House for three terms. President George W. Bush tapped him to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration, after which he served as undersecretary in the Department of Homeland Security. He has criticized Biden on illegal immigration, inflation, student loan forgiveness, and said on CNN that the president's September speech about democracy "singled out a segment of Americans and said basically they're our enemy."Hutchinson also has the distinction of being especially press friendly at a time when numerous Republicans have copied Trump's style of lashing out against journalists. "The media plays an important role in our democracy," Hutchinson told Insider. "I've never shied away from tough questions, and I have always been willing to defend my positions and conservative principles with the hard questions coming from the press."Former Vice President Mike PenceFormer Vice President Mike Pence speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition on Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPence, 63, has begun to distance himself from his former boss, while also promoting his new book, "So Help Me God." He told ABC's "World News Tonight" that Trump "decided to be part of the problem" by not immediately calling off the insurrectionists during the January 6 riot, after he declined to help invalidate Biden's lawful win. Pence also pushed back against Trump on WVOC in South Carolina after he called for terminating the Constitution, and came out forcefully after Trump had dinner with Fuentes."President Trump was wrong to give a white nationalist, an anti-Semite, and a Holocaust denier a seat at the table," he said on November 28. An adviser to the former vice president told Insider that, should Pence decide to run, the team has discussed several policy areas to differentiate himself, including Trump's bipartisan criminal justice reform bill, the First Step Act, and that he'll continue to be "very outspoken on the issue of life."In contrast, Trump didn't mention his three Supreme Court picks when he announced his 2024 presidential run, even though they helped overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that previously guaranteed a national right to abortion. Pence wouldn't have to worry about name ID during a presidential run. Still, his new book and a campaign would allow him to reintroduce himself to voters by talking about his work in the US House and then as governor of Indiana. He already has made numerous trips to early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina. Further, he'll be able to amplify policies that carried his fingerprints during the Trump administration, including his oversight of the US's pandemic response.Pence was a sought-after midterm surrogate, traveling to dozens of states. In May, he went to Georgia to help incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp beat Trump-backed primary challenger David Perdue.Pence's vision for the future of the party is laid out in his Freedom Agenda and Advancing American Freedom, the nonprofit aligned with him that serves as a type of campaign in waiting. The policies include reducing mail-in voting and implementing universal school choice, which allows public education funds to pay for K-12 students to select alternatives to public schools. While Pence didn't testify before the January 6 select committee, his senior aides including former chief of staff Marc Short and legal advisor J. Michael Luttig walked investigators through some of the scenarios that led up to the attack. In November, Pence said on Fox's "Hannity" that he would make a 2024 decision after discussing it with his family during the holidays. Former Secretary of State Mike PompeoFormer Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPompeo, 59, told Chicago donors in September that he already had teams in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.His outside campaign in waiting is called Champion American Values Fund, and Pompeo has been doing press appearances to talk about his forthcoming book, "Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love." Pompeo represented Kansas in the US Congress and was also former CIA director under Trump. After the end of the administration, he lost weight, which sparked speculation that he was interested in a White House run. Similar to Haley, Pompeo would enter the contest with a foreign policy background. He has openly criticized Biden, including after the president's September speech on protecting democracy. "He essentially said if you're pro-life or you're opposed to a certain set of policies, you're a threat," Pompeo told the New England Council's "Politics and Eggs" breakfast.  Biden, he said at the event, could be summed up as having "woke ideas, weak resolve, and waffling leadership."Trump should not have taken classified documents to Mar-a-Lago, he said, but added that the "raid on Mar-a-Lago was indecent and improper." Pompeo told conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt in November that Trump's announcement wouldn't affect whether he decides to run for president, adding that he'd make a determination in the spring. "We need more seriousness, less noise, and leaders who are looking forward," Pompeo said, "not staring in the rearview mirror claiming victimhood." Sen. Marco Rubio of FloridaWilfredo Lee/AP PhotoRubio, 51, has come out hot after cruising to a third term in November, castigating GOP leaders for totally blowing the midterms. "We have a historically unpopular Dem President, record inflation, a violent crime wave & total chaos at the border & not only did we fail to win a majority, we lost a seat. And the Senate GOP response is going to be to make no changes?" Rubio fumed in a December 7 Twitter post. His anger hadn't abated when Insider caught up with him at the US Capitol. "I don't know how you come back from what we have just encountered and conclude that the status quo and business as usual is how we want to proceed," Rubio said of the need for drastic changes within the GOP. While conceding that he doesn't have "all those answers," Rubio suggested that Senate Republicans take a hard look at "the mechanics of elections, policy, the legislative agenda, and all of that." "I think that's something we should all be involved in talking about," Rubio said of the sorely needed soul searching. Rubio, who is of Cuban descent, was speaker of the Florida House before heading to Washington. He has sponsored numerous bills that have become law, including doubling the child tax credit and co-authoring the Paycheck Protection Program that helped keep small businesses afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.On top of that, he's got a powerful perch as the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee. Political operatives have credited him with helping the GOP grow its influence with Hispanic voters, NBC News reported. Asked by Insider whether he had it in him to take another run at the former president after getting clobbered by the insult-flinging Trump in 2016, Rubio said he just really needs to take a breath. "We'll have time over the holidays and into the new year to sort of focus on everything going on in my life and here in the Senate," Rubio told Insider, adding that he hasn't "really focused in on" returning to the presidential proving grounds at the moment. Perhaps voters will learn more about future plans in his forthcoming book, "Decades of Decadence." Sen. Tim Scott of South CarolinaSen. Tim Scott, a Republican of South Carolkina, speaks at a fundraiser in Anderson, South Carolina on August 22, 2022.Meg Kinnard/AP Photo, FileScott, 57, hinted at a presidential bid during his midterms victory speech, even though he previously said he wouldn't run against Trump. "My grandfather voted for the first man of color to be elected as president of the United States," he said on November 8, referring to the vote his grandfather cast for Obama. "I wish he had lived long enough to see perhaps another man of color elected president of the United States. But this time, let it be a Republican and not just a Democrat. So just know: All things are possible in America."Scott, who previously served in the US House, is the only Black Republican in the Senate. He said his six-year term in the Senate beginning in January will be his last, but he hasn't ruled out a presidential run and is making all the right moves to position himself for the undertaking. Despite his own election, he has taken several trips to Iowa and spent time campaigning on behalf of other Republicans. He also released a memoir, "America, a Redemption Story: Choosing Hope, Creating Unity" and is one of the top fundraisers in the Senate — which includes support from small and online donors — even though he defended a safe seat this cycle.Major donors have contributed to Opportunity Matters Fun, a pro-Scott super PAC. In February, he launched a listening tour. Scott was among those leading the push for the successful passage of the bipartisan First Step Act and his measure to create Opportunity Zones that bring private investments into economically distressed communities was part of the 2017 tax reform law. He garnered national interest after delivering the GOP response to Biden's address to Congress in April. Afterward, McConnell said the senator represented "the future of the Republican Party." Scott has been open about the racism he has faced over the course of his life. "I get called Uncle Tom and the n-word by progressives, by liberals," he said in response to Biden's address. He has shared that police have pulled him over numerous times, despite him not violating any traffic laws. He sat down with Trump at the White House to discuss systemic racism and publicly called on Trump to call back certain statements he made on race. Haley, who was South Carolina governor at the time, appointed Scott to the Senate in 2013 after the seat opened up. Miami Mayor Francis SuarezTaylor Hill / Contributor Getty ImagesSuarez, 45, confirmed in October that he's considering a presidential run. By March, he was still deciding, he told the Miami Herald. "It's something that I would consider given the right circumstances and given the right mood of the country," Suarez said at a Punchbowl News event in October. Miami has been getting a lot of attention given the surge of people moving to Florida — and tech companies and crypto startups in particular headed to Miami under Suarez's encouragement. He even told Twitter CEO Elon Musk that he should consider relocating the company's headquarters from San Francisco.Suarez's office sent over a list of accomplishments for the mayor, saying the city was No. 1 in job and wage growth, and had 1.4% unemployment. The Financial Times called Miami "the most important city in America." The mayor made historic increases to the city's police department, increased funding on climate-resistant infrastructure, and passed a rental tax credit for seniors. Suarez didn't vote for Trump during the 2020 election and in the 2018 gubernatorial race in Florida he voted for Democrat Andrew Gillum over DeSantis. He did flip in 2022, voting for DeSantis for reelection, he told Insider. Suarez said Trump has been kind to him. The two spoke at a wedding recently, he said, and Trump told him he was the "hottest politician in America after him.""I don't know if he meant physically hot or if he meant I was getting a lot of buzz," Suarez said. "But he was very nice." Suarez is of Cuban descent and leads the National Conference of Mayors. When asked about how he might stand out in a presidential race, Suarez said he might be able to speak to "a variety of minority communities that are going to be important if Republicans want to grow their base for a generation." Gov. Chris Sununu of New HampshireGov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire.Jon Cherry/Getty Images for ConcordiaSununu, 48, was just reelected to a fourth term in New Hampshire, where governors are reelected every two years and there are no term limits. "I haven't ruled anything in or out," he told Politico's "Playbook Deep Dive" podcast when asked about running for president in 2024. "I haven't ruled out a fifth term. I haven't ruled out running for higher office."Sununu is a centrist Republican who has the distinction of being in favor of abortion rights, at a time when many states are banning abortion. He came close to running for the US Senate in 2022, but told the Washington Examiner that other senators told him their main job was to be a "roadblock" in office — and he wasn't interested in that.Sununu also called Trump "fucking crazy" at the Gridiron dinner, a journalism event. "Let's stop supporting crazy, unelectable candidates in our primaries and start getting behind winners that can close the deal in November," Sununu said in November at Republican Jewish Coalition meeting.He told the Washington Examiner after the midterms that there should be new GOP leadership — not just in the White House but inside the Republican National Committee."Did they achieve on the level of results that we all thought we were going to get?" he asked. "No. So, why would we stick with the same team assuming we're going to get a better result?"Sununu is part of a political dynasty. His father was governor of New Hampshire who then went on to work in the George H.W. Bush administration as chief of staff. His brother was in the US House and US Senate. Gov. Glenn Youngkin of VirginiaGov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia.AP Photo/Steve Helber, FileYoungkin, 56, tried his hand at playing kingmaker in over a dozen 2022 gubernatorial contests and mostly came up short. The newly-minted Republican who rocketed to stardom in late 2021 by keeping Virginia purplish with his electrifying win over Democratic fixture Terry McAuliffe tried to work that same Trump-light magic into contests all around the country. The result: only four of the 15 Republican gubernatorial candidates Youngkin got involved with won their races. It's unclear whether Youngkin had any effect on the reelection bids of blowout winners like Kemp or Noem.By the same token, it's debatable whether he could have dragged Lake, Michigan's Tudor Dixon, or any of the other 2020 election deniers across the finish line given their full-on embrace of Trumpism. While he remains reluctant to badmouth the embattled former president, Youngkin clinched his 2021 win by keeping Trump at bay while still reaching out to the MAGA base. Trump, on the other hand, has tried to take full credit for Youngkin's win and lashed out at the newcomer for not being more appreciative. Trump's already working on trying to clip a Youngkin presidential bid from ever taking wing, panning him and DeSantis as ingrates who have no chance of beating him. Trump also reverted to his old tricks after the politically damaging 2022 midterms flop, hitting Youngkin with a bizarre, racist rant on Truth Social. Given that Virginia only allows governors to serve non-consecutive terms, it makes sense for Youngkin to seek opportunities elsewhere.The Washington Post reported that Youngkin spent part of his summer huddling with Republican mega donors in New York. And while he remains mum on any official plans for 2024, Politico said Youngkin's putting in place the types of fundraising groups a presidential candidate would want to have at the ready.Youngkin is a former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group. As governor, his first official action was to sign an executive order prohibiting Virginia schools from teaching "critical race theory." More recently, he's been pushing to reimburse individuals and businesses who paid fines for violating state COVID-19 restrictions under his Democratic predecessor.Out of the Running: Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger of IllinoisRep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., speaks as the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol holds a hearing in Washington, DC, on July 21, 2022.AP Photo/J. Scott ApplewhiteLike Cheney, Kinzinger, 45, spent much of 2022 focused on the January 6 committee and drawing Trump's ire. He was the only other Republican on the House committee investigating the riot, and retired from his seat at the end of the last Congress, after six terms. Kinzinger told HuffPost in April 2022 that he "would love" to run against Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, but more for the fun of it than to actually win."Even if he crushed me, like in a primary, to be able to stand up and call out the garbage is just a necessary thing, regardless of who it is," he said. "I think it'd be fun."But by January 2023, Kinzinger told CNN's "State of the Union" that he had no intention of running for president. Kinzinger in early 2021 launched his anti-election denier leadership PAC, called Country First. The group launched a nationwide campaign urging voters to reject "extreme" candidates in 2024. Kinzinger sponsored several bills that became law, including measures to prevent opioid addiction and a bill to help veterans with medic training transition to EMT work as civilians. Kinzinger served in the Air Force and remains a pilot in the Air National Guard. Out of the Running: Sen. Josh Hawley of MissouriSenator Josh Hawley (R-MO) speaks during the confirmation hearing for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson on March 22, 2022.JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)Hawley, 43, won't be seeking the presidency in 2024, he told NBC News in November. But the senator has reached for the spotlight whenever possible while Congress is in session.From famously saluting the January 6 protestors on the day of the violent siege at the Capitol to holding Brown Jackson's feet to the fire as she raced to join the Supreme Court, the first-term lawmaker works to portray himself as the perennial outsider who's only here to shake things up. He's played up the part by voting to overturn the 2020 election results on behalf of MAGA vote-magnet Trump, butting heads with McConnell on the way the upper chamber is run, and blaming short-sighted leaders for running the party into the ground. "When your 'agenda' is cave to Big Pharma on insulin, cave to Schumer on gun control & Green New Deal ('infrastructure'), and tease changes to Social Security and Medicare, you lose," Hawley, bemoaned on Twitter following a demoralizing midterms performance by flawed GOP candidates, which he blamed on "Washington Republicanism." The potential 2024 contender followed up with some suggestions, floating an alternative vision he said would help "unrig the system."   "What are Republicans actually going to do for working people? How about, to start: tougher tariffs on China, reshore American jobs, open up American energy full throttle, 100k new cops on the street," Hawley, who was also Missouri's former attorney general, tossed out on his social media feed. Out of the Running: Former Gov. Larry Hogan of MarylandGov. Larry Hogan of Maryland.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesEven before the bruising 2022 midterms, Hogan, 66, was warning that Republicans couldn't continue down the path they are on. "I am not about to give up on the Republican party or America," he wrote on Twitter in early December. "None of us can. It's too important."The two-term governor who survived a 2015 cancer scare has been fired up about plotting his next act. But that next act won't be seeking the presidency. "The stakes are too high for me to risk being part of another multicar pileup that could potentially help Mr. Trump recapture the nomination," Hogan wrote in a guest essay for The New York Times. He elaborated about his thinking in a March 5 interview with CBS News, signaling he wouldn't support Trump or DeSantis — the only Republican who polls near Trump. "Right now, you have Trump and DeSantis at the top of the field, soaking up all the oxygen, getting all the attention, and then a whole lot of the rest of us in single digits," Hogan said on CBS. "And the more of them you have, the less chance you have for somebody rising up."Hogan, a centrist Republican, did explore the possibility of running for president, making the rounds in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. Hogan also scored some face time with GOP mega donors at this year's Republican Jewish Coalition leadership meeting — mentioning to political reporters covering the event that he and other potential 2024 hopefuls were there because "maybe there's a little blood in the water." As governor, Hogan signed a gun control bill into law and has said that while he opposed abortion, he wouldn't move to gut the state's guarantee on reproductive rights. During the COVID-19 pandemic he instituted a statewide mask mandate, then lifted restrictions in May 2021. He billed himself as a "commonsense conservative" who GOP voters sick of losing may want to consider."I think there are 10 people who want to be the next Donald Trump, and I think there may be a different lane," Hogan said while stumping in Manchester, New Hampshire, adding, "I'm going to do everything I can to get the country back on track." He cast a write-in vote for Reagan in the 2020 election and called for Trump to be impeached or resign after January 6. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

At least 18 Republicans have shown they're interested in the 2024 presidential nomination, even though Trump has already declared he's running. Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an event at Mar-a-Lago on November 15, 2022 in Palm Beach, Florida.Joe Raedle/Getty Images Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy are the only Republicans who have made a '24 run official. But many others have been floating the possibility of entering the GOP contest. From Pence to DeSantis, here's how Republicans are laying the groundwork for presidential runs. It's beginning to look a lot like 2016. Former President Donald Trump, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy are the only Republicans so far who have formally announced a 2024 presidential run, but numerous others are signaling that they're toying with the same idea. They're doing all the things they're supposed to do to test their chances: Visiting early primary states, writing books, showing up on the Sunday shows, campaigning with other Republicans ahead of the 2022 midterms, and weighing in publicly on President Joe Biden's policies — and even Trump's latest controversies. The next step will be hiring teams in Iowa and New Hampshire, Doug Heye, a longtime GOP aide and strategist, told Insider."You have got a stable of people who are essentially putting themselves all in the starting gates and all have their own timetable about when and if they decide to run," he said. December would be a "frustrating month" for political watchers because "no one is going to move that much," said Kristin Davison, vice president and general consultant at Axiom Strategies. But hopefuls would be floating what she called "trial balloons" — in which they publicly raise the prospect of a run to see how donors and the press will react. Whoever seizes the nomination will likely face Biden, though he has yet to formally declare his candidacy. But, Heye said, "it's a real possibility" that the GOP lineup will large, much like it was in 2016.The stakes for losing the nomination aren't all bad, even if Republicans might come out of it with an unforgettable Trump nickname. After all, one of the people running for president could get chosen as the running mate or get a seat on the new president's Cabinet.And there are other perks to formally seeking the White House, such as raising one's profile and having a better shot at the presidency during a future cycle. Candidates could also sell a lot more books or leave politics to get a prime TV or radio show. "It's a long, difficult process," Heye said, "and you're more likely to lose than not."Trump's legal, political, and personal liabilities have been piling up in the last month, leading many in the GOP to say the party needs not just a fresh face but to be led by a candidate who can actually win. Insider identified 18 people who have or could seek the Republican nomination in 2024, including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Tim Scott of South Carolina who are up for re-election this cycle and will therefore be in campaign mode anyway. Each will have to effectively answer the "why I'm running for president" question and find their lane in the party, which will inevitably include defining — or redefining — their relationship with Trump. "I don't think you can discount any of them at this point," Heye said. "It's too early to determine who outside of Trump is a frontrunner." Scroll through to see the lawmakers who have either already declared or are potentially gearing up for run:Former UN Ambassador Nikki HaleyFormer UN Ambassador Nikki Haley during a news conference in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday, October 26, 2022.Matt Rourke/AP PhotoHaley, 51, made a run official on February 15. During her campaign launch in Charleston, South Carolina, she portrayed herself as the leader of a younger generation that could win elections. "If you're tired of losing, put your trust in a new generation," she said. Her experiences in public office give her the coveted pairing of having both executive and foreign policy chops, which are often viewed as crucial to the presidency. Aside from Trump and Pence, few other contenders would have such a profile. As a woman of Indian descent, she could also help bring in suburban women voters who graduated from college and expand the GOP coalition among people of color. She embraced her unique background during her campaign kickoff, wearing suffragette white and and calling herself "a brown girl growing up in a black-and-white world." Haley has had a turnaround from last year, when she said she wouldn't run for president if Trump were to seek the White House in 2024. She started our her career working in the private sector, joining her family's clothing business before leading the National Association of Women Business Owners.She served in the South Carolina House for three terms then was the state's governor for six years. In that time Haley delivered the GOP response to Obama's 2016 State of the Union Address.She pushed for the removal of the confederate flag from the South Carolina capitol after a gunman killed nine Black people at Emanuel Church in Charleston. Also as governor, Haley would not support a bill requiring transgender people to use the restroom that corresponded with the gender on their birth certificate. But in 2021 she wrote a commentary in the National Review saying transgender inclusion in sports was an "attack on women's rights."Haley was UN Ambassador under Trump for two years, and successfully pushed for the US to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem and defended Trump's decision to do so.In 2019 she published a memoir, "With All Due Respect: Defending America with Grit and Grace." Haley campaigned and fundraised in high-profile races during the 2022 midterms, including in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Haley told the National Republican Committee the day after the January 6 riot that Trump was "badly wrong" in his speech to supporters and that his "actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history." Tech entrepreneur Vivek RamaswamyRamaswamy founded the biopharmaceutical company Roivant Sciences.Fox NewsRamaswamy, 37, made a run official on February 22. Ramaswamy is an Indian-American tech entrepreneur who co-founded Strive Asset Management and serves as its executive chairman. He also founded the biopharmaceutical company Roivant Sciences."We're in the midst of a national identity crisis. Faith, patriotism & family are disappearing. We embrace one secular religion after another — from wokeism to climatism — to satisfy our deeper need for meaning," he said in a video announcing his campaign. "Yet we cannot even answer what it means to be an American." —Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) February 22, 2023 Ramaswamy wrote "Woke, Inc.: Inside Corporate America's Social Justice Scam," and "Nation of Victims: Identity Politics, the Death of Merit, and the Path Back to Excellence."The New Yorker  nicknamed Ramaswamy the "CEO of Anti-Woke Inc." for his stance against environmental, social, and governance investing. In February he delivered a speech about ESG at Trump National Doral, near Miami, before the exclusive and influential Council for National Policy at Trump Doral, where DeSantis was also a key speaker. Former Rep. Liz Cheney of WyomingRep. Liz Cheney, a Republican of Wyoming, campaigned with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat of Michigan, at an Evening for Patriotism and Bipartisanship event on November 1, 2022 in East Lansing, Michigan.Bill Pugliano/Getty ImagesCheney, 56, is the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney and one of Trump's toughest Republican critics.She voted to impeach Trump after the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, and served as vice chair of the House select committee investigating Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.Cheney's actions have come at a cost under the heavy weight of Trump's ire. House Republicans punished her by stripping her of her leadership post, and she lost her US House seat to Trump-backed GOP challenger Harriet Hageman during the state's August primary.But she hasn't been deterred. Cheney said on NBC's "Today" that she would do "whatever it takes" to keep Trump out of the White House in 2024, including "thinking about" running for president herself. "I wouldn't be surprised to see her run for president," Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah told Insider in August. Cheney voted with Trump on policy when he was in office, and remains a conservative, telling the Reagan Foundation and Institute in June that she believes "deeply in the policies of limited government, of low taxes, of a strong national defense." But Cheney said she sees a breaking point with the Republican Party, telling the Texas Tribune Festival in September that she would leave the GOP if Trump became the 2024 nominee.This could mean she'd run for president as an Independent. Already, she has shown she's willing to campaign against Republicans who falsely deny that Biden won the 2020 presidential election.This year, Cheney converted her House campaign finance committee into an anti-election denier leadership PAC called The Great Task. The PAC spent $500,000 on a TV ad in Arizona that urged voters to reject Republicans Kari Lake and Mark Finchem, who were running for governor and secretary of state, respectively. During the 2022 midterms, Cheney endorsed incumbent Democratic Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia. Both won their races. "We had to make sure that we prevented election deniers from taking power," she told The Washington Post's Global Women's Summit in November. Many outsiders see long odds for Cheney, though a poll conducted in Utah found she could be a top contender there. Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger of IllinoisRep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., speaks as the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol holds a hearing in Washington, DC, on July 21, 2022.AP Photo/J. Scott ApplewhiteLike Cheney, Kinzinger, 44, has spent much of the last year focused on the January 6 committee and drawing Trump's ire. He's the only other Republican on the House committee investigating the riot, and will be retiring from his seat at the end of this Congress, after six terms. Kinzinger told HuffPost in April that he "would love" to run against Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, but more for the fun of it than to actually win."Even if he crushed me, like in a primary, to be able to stand up and call out the garbage is just a necessary thing, regardless of who it is," he said. "I think it'd be fun."In a move that could be signaling he's planning on doing just that, Kinzinger in early 2021 launched his anti-election denier leadership PAC, called Country First. Kinzinger sponsored several bills that became law, including measures to prevent opioid addiction and a bill to help veterans with medic training transition to EMT work as civilians. Kinzinger served in the Air Force and remains a pilot in the Air National Guard. Sen. Ted Cruz of TexasSen. Ted Cruz, a Republican of Texas, speaks at a rally for Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker on November 10, 2022 in Canton, Georgia.Megan Varner/Getty ImagesCruz, 52, was the last Republican standing against Trump during the 2016 presidential nomination and had even announced that he'd pick former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina as his running mate. But Cruz — whom Trump nicknamed "Lyin' Ted" — lost following a nasty primary in which Trump levied highly personal attacks against the senator, including disparaging his wife's looks and falsely suggesting that Cruz's father had something to do with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Once Trump was in office, however, Cruz was one of the president's  biggest defenders. He voted to overturn the 2020 election results in Arizona and Pennsylvania and helped to secure Trump's acquittal in his second impeachment trial. In recent months, Cruz has been spending time in New Hampshire and campaigned with retired football star Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff. While in the Senate, Cruz led the successful effort to zero out the unpopular fine on the uninsured created by the Affordable Care Act.More recently, Cruz used Ketanji Brown Jackson's Supreme Court confirmation hearing to score points for a potential 2024 run, questioning her about school curriculum on race. Before coming to Congress, Cruz was solicitor general in Texas, a role that involves arguing cases before the Supreme Court. When Insider asked whether Trump's latest missteps had provided an opening for him to jump into the 2024 presidential race, Cruz chuckled a bit before laying out what sounded like a near-term agenda. "I think the Senate is the battleground … and I'm going to do everything I can to lead the fight right here," Cruz told Insider before launching into a tirade about his mounting frustration with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's decision making. He made no specific mention of 2024, but also didn't work in the word "no" anywhere.Cruz told the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas that he'll seek reelection in Texas in 2024 when his term is up, though state law allows him to run for both offices at the same time.Former Gov. Chris Christie of New JerseyFormer New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition Saturday, November 19, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoChristie, 60, is famously said to have missed his moment for the White House because he didn't run for president when he was getting a lot of attention as New Jersey's governor in 2012, and instead fizzled out in 2016 when faced with Trump and numerous other contenders. But that hasn't stopped him from weighing another go at it. As recently as October, during an appearance on "Real Time with Bill Maher," Christie confirmed that he was considering a 2024 run.  In the last 18 months, Christie has been prominently involved in midterm campaigning and on the same speech circuit as other GOP hopefuls, including the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. He also put out a book in 2021, titled "Republican Rescue: Saving the Party From Truth Deniers, Conspiracy Theorists, and the Dangerous Policies of Joe Biden." Christie served two terms as a Republican governor in a blue state where Democrats controlled the legislature. In that role, he expanded Medicaid under Obamacare and passed bail reform.But he got flak over a handshake with then-President Barack Obama during Hurricane Sandy relief efforts, and was hurt politically after members of his administration created traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge.Christie became a lobbyist in 2020, when he had several healthcare clients but cut ties a year later, according to the lobbying disclosure database, in what could be a sign that he's lining up for a run.   Today, Christie blames Trump for the GOP's losses the last three election cycles and spent months saying Republicans "have to be the party of tomorrow, not the party of yesterday" if they ever want to win another election. His tone on Trump is a stunning turnaround for a man who was one of Trump's closest outside advisors when he was in the White House and was even on the shortlist to be Trump's chief of staff. Christie turned on Trump after January 6, saying the president violated his oath of office. More recently, he told The New York Times that Trump's candidacy was "untenable" and that the former president had had "poor judgement" after he dined at Mar-a-Lago with white supremacist and Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes. He also told the Washington Examiner that Republicans "fail the leadership test" when they don't call out Trump. Gov. Ron DeSantis of FloridaRepublican gubernatorial candidate for Florida Ron DeSantis speaks during an election night watch party at the Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on November 8, 2022.Giorgio VIERA / AFP via Getty ImagesDeSantis, 44, has an enviable mantle for the presidency in the Florida governor's office — and he's making the most of it. He famously and unapologetically reopened Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic, before federal health officials said he should. He banned certain teachings on race in workplaces and schools, and flew unsuspecting migrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. DeSantis also signed a contentious parental involvement and sex ed bill into law that critics call "Don't Say Gay." Instead of backing down over the outcry, he punished Disney for threatening to repeal it.Then there were the historic tax cuts in Florida with promises of more as well as viral videos bashing what he calls the "corporate media." All of these actions have portrayed the governor as a fighter. That's not the only part of his public persona on display. Often in tow is his beautiful, young family. His former newscaster wife, Florida's first lady Casey DeSantis, has been instrumental in his rise. To the New York Post, pictures of the DeSantis family on Election Night was "DeFuture." Others see a conservative JFK. But the politician DeSantis most often gets compared to is Trump. Numerous news profiles have described DeSantis as "Trump without the baggage," or as a more disciplined Trump. Yet after leaning on Trump during his first gubernatorial victory in 2018, DeSantis showed he could win big on his own, scoring a historic, 20-point victory in Florida in November without Trump's endorsement.As for presidential clues, DeSantis is also out with his first memoir in February: "The Courage to Be Free: Florida's Blueprint for America's Revival." During the midterms, he extended goodwill to other Republicans by campaigning with them. Back at home, he raked in a record amount of cash for a gubernatorial race. If the GOP primary were decided today, numerous polls show, DeSantis is the only person that gets close to Trump. DeSantis, a former conservative House member, has not pledged to serve out all four years of his second term. All of that has angered Trump. He has called DeSantis "Ron DeSanctimonious" and threatened to release damaging information about the governor. DeSantis has refused to punch back at Trump publicly, instead blaming the media and saying, "When you're leading, when you're getting things done, you take incoming fire."South Dakota Gov. Kristi NoemSouth Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, Texas, on July 11, 2021.Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesNoem, 51, has been on a Trump-related roller coaster ride as of late. In January 2021, the embattled former president tried to get her to primary fellow South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a lawmaker Trump took to calling a RINO (which stands for "Republican in name only") after Thune balked at his baseless claims of election fraud. Noem bowed out of joining Trump's revenge campaign, opting to focus on her own re-election plans. Once 2022 rolled around, she leaned hard into the GOP culture wars, promising voters that she'd bar transgender athletes from participating in women's sports, stamp out any "critical race theory" instruction in local schools, and decimate any "radical political ideologies" that annoyed her evangelical Christian base.Come July, Noem told CNN she'd be "shocked" if Trump tapped her to be his 2024 running mate. But she didn't rule out sliding into the VP slot — or mounting a challenge of her own. Since winning a second term in November, Noem has started taking on bigger foes, including the People's Republic of China. —Kristi Noem (@KristiNoem) November 30, 2022 Her state government-wide ban against the use of social media app TikTok scored her fawning interviews on conservative outlets including Fox News and Newsmax, beaming her into the homes of potential admirers who don't happen to reside in the Mount Rushmore State. Noem seems far less enthusiastic about Trump these days, telling reporters that the twice-impeached, scandal-plagued former president isn't Republicans' "best chance" at retaking the White House in 2024. She issued this prediction just days after Trump announced he was running again.  Sen. Josh Hawley of MissouriSenator Josh Hawley (R-MO) speaks during the confirmation hearing for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson on March 22, 2022.JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)Hawley, 43, has reached for the spotlight whenever possible while Congress is in session.From famously saluting the January 6 protestors on the day of the violent siege at the Capitol to holding Brown Jackson's feet to the fire as she raced to join the Supreme Court, the first-term lawmaker works to portray himself as the perennial outsider who's only here to shake things up. He's played up the part by voting to overturn the 2020 election results on behalf of MAGA vote-magnet Trump, butting heads with McConnell on the way the upper chamber is run, and blaming short-sighted leaders for running the party into the ground. "When your 'agenda' is cave to Big Pharma on insulin, cave to Schumer on gun control & Green New Deal ('infrastructure'), and tease changes to Social Security and Medicare, you lose," Hawley, bemoaned on Twitter following a demoralizing midterms performance by flawed GOP candidates, which he blamed on "Washington Republicanism." The potential 2024 contender followed up with some suggestions, floating an alternative vision he said would help "unrig the system."   "What are Republicans actually going to do for working people? How about, to start: tougher tariffs on China, reshore American jobs, open up American energy full throttle, 100k new cops on the street," Hawley, who was also Missouri's former attorney general, tossed out on his social media feed. Asked by Insider about his intentions of formally jumping into the 2024 presidential race, Hawley laughed out loud for a few seconds. "I hope to run for reelection to the Senate in 2024. If the people of Missouri will have me," he said. Nowhere in there did Hawley say "no." Former Gov. Larry Hogan of MarylandGov. Larry Hogan of Maryland.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesEven before the bruising 2022 midterms, Hogan, 66, was warning that Republicans couldn't continue down the path they are on. "I am not about to give up on the Republican party or America," he wrote on Twitter in early December. "None of us can. It's too important."The two-term governor who beat a 2015 cancer scare has been fired up about plotting his next act. Hogan, a centrist Republican, is already making the rounds in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. A nonprofit group aligned with him reported raising $2 million in 2021, some of which was spent on "supporter acquisition" and "audience building." And Hogan recently scored some face time with GOP mega donors at this year's Republican Jewish Coalition leadership meeting — mentioning to political reporters covering the event that he and other potential 2024 hopefuls were there because "maybe there's a little blood in the water." Trump was notably absent at the event, but did video-conference in. As governor, Hogan signed a gun control bill into law and has said that while he opposed abortion, he wouldn't move to gut the state's guarantee on reproductive rights. During the COVID-19 pandemic he instituted a statewide mask mandate, then lifted restrictions in May 2021. While he has yet to formally declare a 2024 run, Hogan has begun billing himself as a "commonsense conservative" who GOP voters sick of losing may want to consider."I think there are 10 people who want to be the next Donald Trump, and I think there may be a different lane," Hogan said while stumping in Manchester, New Hampshire, adding, "I'm going to do everything I can to get the country back on track." He cast a write-in vote for Reagan in the 2020 election and called for Trump to be impeached or resign after January 6. Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of ArkansasArkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson attends the National Governors Association summer meeting, Friday, July 15, 2022, in Portland, Maine.Robert F. Bukaty/AP PhotoHutchinson, 72, hasn't been shy about criticizing Biden or Trump. After Trump's 2024 announcement, he said the former president's "self-indulging message promoting anger has not changed," and also disavowed the Fuentes and Ye meeting at Mar-a-Lago.Hutchinson has taken at least five trips to Iowa through America Strong & Free, the nonprofit of which he's the honorary chairman and spokesperson."I am seriously looking at a run in 2024 because America and the Republican Party are not in the best place," he said in a statement provided to Insider. "I know how to get us back on track both in terms of leadership and facing the challenging issues of border security, increased violent crime and energy inflation." He'll make a decision in January, he told KARK.As governor for the last eight years, he has pushed to make the state a leader in computer science, and signed several tax cuts into law, including lowering the state income tax rate from 7% to 4.9%. Hutchinson also signed bills into law blocking businesses from requiring customers and workers to show proof of COVID-19 vaccinations, and blocked state and local officials from obligating masks — a move he later said he regretted. He asked state lawmakers to create a carve-out for schools, but the Arkansas House rejected the proposal. While he signed an abortion ban into law in 2019 that took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, he said on CNN that he personally believes in exceptions for rape and incest."Many out there appreciate a 'consistent conservative,' even one they don't agree with all the time," Hutchinson told Insider. "I am not interested in the 'outrage of the day,' and I am committed to using my consistent conservative principles to guide me and our nation on important policy decisions." Hutchinson began his government career as a US attorney for the Western District of Arkansas under President Ronald Reagan, then went on to serve in the US House for three terms. President George W. Bush tapped him to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration, after which he served as undersecretary in the Department of Homeland Security. He has criticized Biden on illegal immigration, inflation, student loan forgiveness, and said on CNN that the president's September speech about democracy "singled out a segment of Americans and said basically they're our enemy."Hutchinson also has the distinction of being especially press friendly at a time when numerous Republicans have copied Trump's style of lashing out against journalists. "The media plays an important role in our democracy," Hutchinson told Insider. "I've never shied away from tough questions, and I have always been willing to defend my positions and conservative principles with the hard questions coming from the press."Former Vice President Mike PenceFormer Vice President Mike Pence speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition on Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPence, 63, has begun to distance himself from his former boss, while also promoting his new book, "So Help Me God." He told ABC's "World News Tonight" that Trump "decided to be part of the problem" by not immediately calling off the insurrectionists during the January 6 riot, after he declined to help invalidate Biden's lawful win. Pence also pushed back against Trump on WVOC in South Carolina after he called for terminating the Constitution, and came out forcefully after Trump had dinner with Fuentes."President Trump was wrong to give a white nationalist, an anti-Semite, and a Holocaust denier a seat at the table," he said on November 28. An adviser to the former vice president told Insider that, should Pence decide to run, the team has discussed several policy areas to differentiate himself, including Trump's bipartisan criminal justice reform bill, the First Step Act, and that he'll continue to be "very outspoken on the issue of life."In contrast, Trump didn't mention his three Supreme Court picks when he announced his 2024 presidential run, even though they helped overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that previously guaranteed a national right to abortion. Pence wouldn't have to worry about name ID during a presidential run. Still, his new book and a campaign would allow him to reintroduce himself to voters by talking about his work in the US House and then as governor of Indiana. He already has made numerous trips to early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina. Further, he'll be able to amplify policies that carried his fingerprints during the Trump administration, including his oversight of the US's pandemic response.Pence was a sought-after midterm surrogate, traveling to dozens of states. In May, he went to Georgia to help incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp beat Trump-backed primary challenger David Perdue.Pence's vision for the future of the party is laid out in his Freedom Agenda and Advancing American Freedom, the nonprofit aligned with him that serves as a type of campaign in waiting. The policies include reducing mail-in voting and implementing universal school choice, which allows public education funds to pay for K-12 students to select alternatives to public schools. While Pence didn't testify before the January 6 select committee, his senior aides including former chief of staff Marc Short and legal advisor J. Michael Luttig walked investigators through some of the scenarios that led up to the attack. In November, Pence said on Fox's "Hannity" that he would make a 2024 decision after discussing it with his family during the holidays. Former Secretary of State Mike PompeoFormer Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPompeo, 59, told Chicago donors in September that he already had teams in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.His outside campaign in waiting is called Champion American Values Fund, and Pompeo has been doing press appearances to talk about his forthcoming book, "Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love." Pompeo represented Kansas in the US Congress and was also former CIA director under Trump. After the end of the administration, he lost weight, which sparked speculation that he was interested in a White House run. Similar to Haley, Pompeo would enter the contest with a foreign policy background. He has openly criticized Biden, including after the president's September speech on protecting democracy. "He essentially said if you're pro-life or you're opposed to a certain set of policies, you're a threat," Pompeo told the New England Council's "Politics and Eggs" breakfast.  Biden, he said at the event, could be summed up as having "woke ideas, weak resolve, and waffling leadership."Trump should not have taken classified documents to Mar-a-Lago, he said, but added that the "raid on Mar-a-Lago was indecent and improper." Pompeo told conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt in November that Trump's announcement wouldn't affect whether he decides to run for president, adding that he'd make a determination in the spring. "We need more seriousness, less noise, and leaders who are looking forward," Pompeo said, "not staring in the rearview mirror claiming victimhood." Sen. Marco Rubio of FloridaWilfredo Lee/AP PhotoRubio, 51, has come out hot after cruising to a third term in November, castigating GOP leaders for totally blowing the midterms. "We have a historically unpopular Dem President, record inflation, a violent crime wave & total chaos at the border & not only did we fail to win a majority, we lost a seat. And the Senate GOP response is going to be to make no changes?" Rubio fumed in a December 7 Twitter post. His anger hadn't abated when Insider caught up with him at the US Capitol. "I don't know how you come back from what we have just encountered and conclude that the status quo and business as usual is how we want to proceed," Rubio said of the need for drastic changes within the GOP. While conceding that he doesn't have "all those answers," Rubio suggested that Senate Republicans take a hard look at "the mechanics of elections, policy, the legislative agenda, and all of that." "I think that's something we should all be involved in talking about," Rubio said of the sorely needed soul searching. Rubio, who is of Cuban descent, was speaker of the Florida House before heading to Washington. He has sponsored numerous bills that have become law, including doubling the child tax credit and co-authoring the Paycheck Protection Program that helped keep small businesses afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.On top of that, he's got a powerful perch as the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee. Political operatives have credited him with helping the GOP grow its influence with Hispanic voters, NBC News reported. Asked by Insider whether he had it in him to take another run at the former president after getting clobbered by the insult-flinging Trump in 2016, Rubio said he just really needs to take a breath. "We'll have time over the holidays and into the new year to sort of focus on everything going on in my life and here in the Senate," Rubio told Insider, adding that he hasn't "really focused in on" returning to the presidential proving grounds at the moment. Perhaps voters will learn more about future plans in his forthcoming book, "Decades of Decadence." Sen. Tim Scott of South CarolinaSen. Tim Scott, a Republican of South Carolkina, speaks at a fundraiser in Anderson, South Carolina on August 22, 2022.Meg Kinnard/AP Photo, FileScott, 57, hinted at a presidential bid during his midterms victory speech, even though he previously said he wouldn't run against Trump. "My grandfather voted for the first man of color to be elected as president of the United States," he said on November 8, referring to the vote his grandfather cast for Obama. "I wish he had lived long enough to see perhaps another man of color elected president of the United States. But this time, let it be a Republican and not just a Democrat. So just know: All things are possible in America."Scott, who previously served in the US House, is the only Black Republican in the Senate. He said his six-year term in the Senate beginning in January will be his last, but he hasn't ruled out a presidential run and is making all the right moves to position himself for the undertaking. Despite his own election, he has taken several trips to Iowa and spent time campaigning on behalf of other Republicans. He also released a memoir, "America, a Redemption Story: Choosing Hope, Creating Unity" and is one of the top fundraisers in the Senate — which includes support from small and online donors — even though he defended a safe seat this cycle.Major donors have contributed to Opportunity Matters Fun, a pro-Scott super PAC.Scott was among those leading the push for the successful passage of the bipartisan First Step Act and his measure to create Opportunity Zones that bring private investments into economically distressed communities was part of the 2017 tax reform law. He garnered national interest after delivering the GOP response to Biden's address to Congress in April. Afterward, McConnell said the senator represented "the future of the Republican Party." Scott has been open about the racism he has faced over the course of his life. "I get called Uncle Tom and the n-word by progressives, by liberals," he said in response to Biden's address. He has shared that police have pulled him over numerous times, despite him not violating any traffic laws. He sat down with Trump at the White House to discuss systemic racism and publicly called on Trump to call back certain statements he made on race. Haley, who was South Carolina governor at the time, appointed Scott to the Senate in 2013 after the seat opened up. Miami Mayor Francis SuarezTaylor Hill / Contributor Getty ImagesSuarez, 45, confirmed in October that he's considering a presidential run."It's something that I would consider given the right circumstances and given the right mood of the country," Suarez said at a Punchbowl News event. Miami has been getting a lot of attention given the surge of people moving to Florida — and tech companies and crypto startups in particular headed to Miami under Suarez's encouragement. He even told Twitter CEO Elon Musk that he should consider relocating the company's headquarters from San Francisco.Suarez's office sent over a list of accomplishments for the mayor, saying the city was No. 1 in job and wage growth, and had 1.4% unemployment. The Financial Times called Miami "the most important city in America." The mayor made historic increases to the city's police department, increased funding on climate-resistant infrastructure, and passed a rental tax credit for seniors. Suarez didn't vote for Trump during the 2020 election and in the 2018 gubernatorial race in Florida he voted for Democrat Andrew Gillum over DeSantis. But Suarez said Trump also has been kind to him. The two spoke at a wedding recently, he said, and Trump told him he was the "hottest politician in America after him.""I don't know if he meant physically hot or if he meant I was getting a lot of buzz," Suarez said. "But he was very nice." Suarez is of Cuban descent and leads the National Conference of Mayors. When asked about how he might stand out in a presidential race, Suarez said he might be able to speak to "a variety of minority communities that are going to be important if Republicans want to grow their base for a generation." Gov. Chris Sununu of New HampshireGov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire.Jon Cherry/Getty Images for ConcordiaSununu, 48, was just reelected to a fourth term in New Hampshire, where governors are reelected every two years and there are no term limits. "I haven't ruled anything in or out," he told Politico's "Playbook Deep Dive" podcast when asked about running for president in 2024. "I haven't ruled out a fifth term. I haven't ruled out running for higher office."Sununu is a centrist Republican who has the distinction of being in favor of abortion rights, at a time when many states are banning abortion. He came close to running for the US Senate in 2022, but told the Washington Examiner that other senators told him their main job was to be a "roadblock" in office — and he wasn't interested in that.Sununu also called Trump "fucking crazy" at the Gridiron dinner, a journalism event. "Let's stop supporting crazy, unelectable candidates in our primaries and start getting behind winners that can close the deal in November," Sununu said in November at Republican Jewish Coalition meeting.He told the Washington Examiner after the midterms that there should be new GOP leadership — not just in the White House but inside the Republican National Committee."Did they achieve on the level of results that we all thought we were going to get?" he asked. "No. So, why would we stick with the same team assuming we're going to get a better result?"Sununu is part of a political dynasty. His father was governor of New Hampshire who then went on to work in the George H.W. Bush administration as chief of staff. His brother was in the US House and US Senate. Gov. Glenn Youngkin of VirginiaGov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia.AP Photo/Steve Helber, FileYoungkin, 56, tried his hand at playing kingmaker in over a dozen 2022 gubernatorial contests and mostly came up short. The newly-minted Republican who rocketed to stardom in late 2021 by keeping Virginia purplish with his electrifying win over Democratic fixture Terry McAuliffe tried to work that same Trump-light magic into contests all around the country. The result: only four of the 15 Republican gubernatorial candidates Youngkin got involved with won their races. It's unclear whether Youngkin had any effect on the reelection bids of blowout winners like Kemp or Noem.By the same token, it's debatable whether he could have dragged Lake, Michigan's Tudor Dixon, or any of the other 2020 election deniers across the finish line given their full-on embrace of Trumpism. While he remains reluctant to badmouth the embattled former president, Youngkin clinched his 2021 win by keeping Trump at bay while still reaching out to the MAGA base. Trump, on the other hand, has tried to take full credit for Youngkin's win and lashed out at the newcomer for not being more appreciative. Trump's already working on trying to clip a Youngkin presidential bid from ever taking wing, panning him and DeSantis as ingrates who have no chance of beating him. Trump also reverted to his old tricks after the politically damaging 2022 midterms flop, hitting Youngkin with a bizarre, racist rant on Truth Social. Given that Virginia only allows governors to serve non-consecutive terms, it makes sense for Youngkin to seek opportunities elsewhere.The Washington Post reported that Youngkin spent part of his summer huddling with Republican mega donors in New York. And while he remains mum on any official plans for 2024, Politico said Youngkin's putting in place the types of fundraising groups a presidential candidate would want to have at the ready.Youngkin is a former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group. As governor, his first official action was to sign an executive order prohibiting Virginia schools from teaching "critical race theory." More recently, he's been pushing to reimburse individuals and businesses who paid fines for violating state COVID-19 restrictions under his Democratic predecessor.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

At least 17 Republicans have shown they're interested in the 2024 presidential nomination, even though Trump has already declared he's running. Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an event at Mar-a-Lago on November 15, 2022 in Palm Beach, Florida.Joe Raedle/Getty Images Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are the only Republicans who have made a '24 run official. But many others have been floating the possibility of entering the GOP contest. From Pence to DeSantis, here's how Republicans are laying the groundwork for presidential runs. It's beginning to look a lot like 2016. Former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley are the only Republicans so far who have announced a 2024 presidential run, but numerous others are signaling that they're toying with the same idea. They're doing all the things they're supposed to do to test their chances: Visiting early primary states, writing books, showing up on the Sunday shows, campaigning with other Republicans ahead of the 2022 midterms, and weighing in publicly on President Joe Biden's policies — and even Trump's latest controversies. The next step will be hiring teams in Iowa and New Hampshire, Doug Heye, a longtime GOP aide and strategist, told Insider."You have got a stable of people who are essentially putting themselves all in the starting gates and all have their own timetable about when and if they decide to run," he said. December would be a "frustrating month" for political watchers because "no one is going to move that much," said Kristin Davison, vice president and general consultant at Axiom Strategies. But hopefuls would be floating what she called "trial balloons" — in which they publicly raise the prospect of a run to see how donors and the press will react. Whoever seizes the nomination will likely face Biden, though he has yet to formally declare his candidacy. But, Heye said, "it's a real possibility" that the GOP lineup will large, much like it was in 2016.The stakes for losing the nomination aren't all bad, even if Republicans might come out of it with an unforgettable Trump nickname. After all, one of the people running for president could get chosen as the running mate or get a seat on the new president's Cabinet.And there are other perks to formally seeking the White House, such as raising one's profile and having a better shot at the presidency during a future cycle. Candidates could also sell a lot more books or leave politics to get a prime TV or radio show. "It's a long, difficult process," Heye said, "and you're more likely to lose than not."Trump's legal, political, and personal liabilities have been piling up in the last month, leading many in the GOP to say the party needs not just a fresh face but to be led by a candidate who can actually win. Insider identified 17 people who could seek the Republican nomination in 2024, including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Tim Scott of South Carolina who are up for re-election this cycle and will therefore be in campaign mode anyway. Each will have to effectively answer the "why I'm running for president" question and find their lane in the party, which will inevitably include defining — or redefining — their relationship with Trump. "I don't think you can discount any of them at this point," Heye said. "It's too early to determine who outside of Trump is a frontrunner." Scroll through to see the lawmakers who have either already declared or are potentially gearing up for run:Former UN Ambassador Nikki HaleyFormer UN Ambassador Nikki Haley during a news conference in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday, October 26, 2022.Matt Rourke/AP PhotoHaley, 51, made a run official on February 15. During her campaign launch in Charleston, South Carolina, she portrayed herself as the leader of a younger generation that could win elections. "If you're tired of losing, put your trust in a new generation," she said. Her experiences in public office give her the coveted pairing of having both executive and foreign policy chops, which are often viewed as crucial to the presidency. Aside from Trump and Pence, few other contenders would have such a profile. As a woman of Indian descent, she could also help bring in suburban women voters who graduated from college and expand the GOP coalition among people of color. She embraced her unique background during her campaign kickoff, wearing suffragette white and and calling herself "a brown girl growing up in a black-and-white world." Haley has had a turnaround from last year, when she said she wouldn't run for president if Trump were to seek the White House in 2024. She started our her career working in the private sector, joining her family's clothing business before leading the National Association of Women Business Owners.She served in the South Carolina House for three terms then was the state's governor for six years. In that time Haley delivered the GOP response to Obama's 2016 State of the Union Address.She pushed for the removal of the confederate flag from the South Carolina capitol after a gunman killed nine Black people at Emanuel Church in Charleston. Also as governor, Haley would not support a bill requiring transgender people to use the restroom that corresponded with the gender on their birth certificate. But in 2021 she wrote a commentary in the National Review saying transgender inclusion in sports was an "attack on women's rights."Haley was UN Ambassador under Trump for two years, and successfully pushed for the US to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem and defended Trump's decision to do so.In 2019 she published a memoir, "With All Due Respect: Defending America with Grit and Grace." Haley campaigned and fundraised in high-profile races during the 2022 midterms, including in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Haley told the National Republican Committee the day after the January 6 riot that Trump was "badly wrong" in his speech to supporters and that his "actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history." Former Rep. Liz Cheney of WyomingRep. Liz Cheney, a Republican of Wyoming, campaigned with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat of Michigan, at an Evening for Patriotism and Bipartisanship event on November 1, 2022 in East Lansing, Michigan.Bill Pugliano/Getty ImagesCheney, 56, is the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney and one of Trump's toughest Republican critics.She voted to impeach Trump after the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, and served as vice chair of the House select committee investigating Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.Cheney's actions have come at a cost under the heavy weight of Trump's ire. House Republicans punished her by stripping her of her leadership post, and she lost her US House seat to Trump-backed GOP challenger Harriet Hageman during the state's August primary.But she hasn't been deterred. Cheney said on NBC's "Today" that she would do "whatever it takes" to keep Trump out of the White House in 2024, including "thinking about" running for president herself. "I wouldn't be surprised to see her run for president," Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah told Insider in August. Cheney voted with Trump on policy when he was in office, and remains a conservative, telling the Reagan Foundation and Institute in June that she believes "deeply in the policies of limited government, of low taxes, of a strong national defense." But Cheney said she sees a breaking point with the Republican Party, telling the Texas Tribune Festival in September that she would leave the GOP if Trump became the 2024 nominee.This could mean she'd run for president as an Independent. Already, she has shown she's willing to campaign against Republicans who falsely deny that Biden won the 2020 presidential election.This year, Cheney converted her House campaign finance committee into an anti-election denier leadership PAC called The Great Task. The PAC spent $500,000 on a TV ad in Arizona that urged voters to reject Republicans Kari Lake and Mark Finchem, who were running for governor and secretary of state, respectively. During the 2022 midterms, Cheney endorsed incumbent Democratic Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia. Both won their races. "We had to make sure that we prevented election deniers from taking power," she told The Washington Post's Global Women's Summit in November. Many outsiders see long odds for Cheney, though a poll conducted in Utah found she could be a top contender there. Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger of IllinoisRep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., speaks as the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol holds a hearing in Washington, DC, on July 21, 2022.AP Photo/J. Scott ApplewhiteLike Cheney, Kinzinger, 44, has spent much of the last year focused on the January 6 committee and drawing Trump's ire. He's the only other Republican on the House committee investigating the riot, and will be retiring from his seat at the end of this Congress, after six terms. Kinzinger told HuffPost in April that he "would love" to run against Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, but more for the fun of it than to actually win."Even if he crushed me, like in a primary, to be able to stand up and call out the garbage is just a necessary thing, regardless of who it is," he said. "I think it'd be fun."In a move that could be signaling he's planning on doing just that, Kinzinger in early 2021 launched his anti-election denier leadership PAC, called Country First. Kinzinger sponsored several bills that became law, including measures to prevent opioid addiction and a bill to help veterans with medic training transition to EMT work as civilians. Kinzinger served in the Air Force and remains a pilot in the Air National Guard. Sen. Ted Cruz of TexasSen. Ted Cruz, a Republican of Texas, speaks at a rally for Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker on November 10, 2022 in Canton, Georgia.Megan Varner/Getty ImagesCruz, 52, was the last Republican standing against Trump during the 2016 presidential nomination and had even announced that he'd pick former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina as his running mate. But Cruz — whom Trump nicknamed "Lyin' Ted" — lost following a nasty primary in which Trump levied highly personal attacks against the senator, including disparaging his wife's looks and falsely suggesting that Cruz's father had something to do with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Once Trump was in office, however, Cruz was one of the president's  biggest defenders. He voted to overturn the 2020 election results in Arizona and Pennsylvania and helped to secure Trump's acquittal in his second impeachment trial. In recent months, Cruz has been spending time in New Hampshire and campaigned with retired football star Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff. While in the Senate, Cruz led the successful effort to zero out the unpopular fine on the uninsured created by the Affordable Care Act.More recently, Cruz used Ketanji Brown Jackson's Supreme Court confirmation hearing to score points for a potential 2024 run, questioning her about school curriculum on race. Before coming to Congress, Cruz was solicitor general in Texas, a role that involves arguing cases before the Supreme Court. When Insider asked whether Trump's latest missteps had provided an opening for him to jump into the 2024 presidential race, Cruz chuckled a bit before laying out what sounded like a near-term agenda. "I think the Senate is the battleground … and I'm going to do everything I can to lead the fight right here," Cruz told Insider before launching into a tirade about his mounting frustration with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's decision making. He made no specific mention of 2024, but also didn't work in the word "no" anywhere.Cruz told the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas that he'll seek reelection in Texas in 2024 when his term is up, though state law allows him to run for both offices at the same time.Former Gov. Chris Christie of New JerseyFormer New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition Saturday, November 19, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoChristie, 60, is famously said to have missed his moment for the White House because he didn't run for president when he was getting a lot of attention as New Jersey's governor in 2012, and instead fizzled out in 2016 when faced with Trump and numerous other contenders. But that hasn't stopped him from weighing another go at it. As recently as October, during an appearance on "Real Time with Bill Maher," Christie confirmed that he was considering a 2024 run.  In the last 18 months, Christie has been prominently involved in midterm campaigning and on the same speech circuit as other GOP hopefuls, including the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. He also put out a book in 2021, titled "Republican Rescue: Saving the Party From Truth Deniers, Conspiracy Theorists, and the Dangerous Policies of Joe Biden." Christie served two terms as a Republican governor in a blue state where Democrats controlled the legislature. In that role, he expanded Medicaid under Obamacare and passed bail reform.But he got flak over a handshake with then-President Barack Obama during Hurricane Sandy relief efforts, and was hurt politically after members of his administration created traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge.Christie became a lobbyist in 2020, when he had several healthcare clients but cut ties a year later, according to the lobbying disclosure database, in what could be a sign that he's lining up for a run.   Today, Christie blames Trump for the GOP's losses the last three election cycles and spent months saying Republicans "have to be the party of tomorrow, not the party of yesterday" if they ever want to win another election. His tone on Trump is a stunning turnaround for a man who was one of Trump's closest outside advisors when he was in the White House and was even on the shortlist to be Trump's chief of staff. Christie turned on Trump after January 6, saying the president violated his oath of office. More recently, he told The New York Times that Trump's candidacy was "untenable" and that the former president had had "poor judgement" after he dined at Mar-a-Lago with white supremacist and Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes. He also told the Washington Examiner that Republicans "fail the leadership test" when they don't call out Trump. Gov. Ron DeSantis of FloridaRepublican gubernatorial candidate for Florida Ron DeSantis speaks during an election night watch party at the Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on November 8, 2022.Giorgio VIERA / AFP via Getty ImagesDeSantis, 44, has an enviable mantle for the presidency in the Florida governor's office — and he's making the most of it. He famously and unapologetically reopened Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic, before federal health officials said he should. He banned certain teachings on race in workplaces and schools, and flew unsuspecting migrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. DeSantis also signed a contentious parental involvement and sex ed bill into law that critics call "Don't Say Gay." Instead of backing down over the outcry, he punished Disney for threatening to repeal it.Then there were the historic tax cuts in Florida with promises of more as well as viral videos bashing what he calls the "corporate media." All of these actions have portrayed the governor as a fighter. That's not the only part of his public persona on display. Often in tow is his beautiful, young family. His former newscaster wife, Florida's first lady Casey DeSantis, has been instrumental in his rise. To the New York Post, pictures of the DeSantis family on Election Night was "DeFuture." Others see a conservative JFK. But the politician DeSantis most often gets compared to is Trump. Numerous news profiles have described DeSantis as "Trump without the baggage," or as a more disciplined Trump. Yet after leaning on Trump during his first gubernatorial victory in 2018, DeSantis showed he could win big on his own, scoring a historic, 20-point victory in Florida in November without Trump's endorsement.As for presidential clues, DeSantis is also out with his first memoir in February: "The Courage to Be Free: Florida's Blueprint for America's Revival." During the midterms, he extended goodwill to other Republicans by campaigning with them. Back at home, he raked in a record amount of cash for a gubernatorial race. If the GOP primary were decided today, numerous polls show, DeSantis is the only person that gets close to Trump. DeSantis, a former conservative House member, has not pledged to serve out all four years of his second term. All of that has angered Trump. He has called DeSantis "Ron DeSanctimonious" and threatened to release damaging information about the governor. DeSantis has refused to punch back at Trump publicly, instead blaming the media and saying, "When you're leading, when you're getting things done, you take incoming fire."South Dakota Gov. Kristi NoemSouth Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, Texas, on July 11, 2021.Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesNoem, 51, has been on a Trump-related roller coaster ride as of late. In January 2021, the embattled former president tried to get her to primary fellow South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a lawmaker Trump took to calling a RINO (which stands for "Republican in name only") after Thune balked at his baseless claims of election fraud. Noem bowed out of joining Trump's revenge campaign, opting to focus on her own re-election plans. Once 2022 rolled around, she leaned hard into the GOP culture wars, promising voters that she'd bar transgender athletes from participating in women's sports, stamp out any "critical race theory" instruction in local schools, and decimate any "radical political ideologies" that annoyed her evangelical Christian base.Come July, Noem told CNN she'd be "shocked" if Trump tapped her to be his 2024 running mate. But she didn't rule out sliding into the VP slot — or mounting a challenge of her own. Since winning a second term in November, Noem has started taking on bigger foes, including the People's Republic of China. —Kristi Noem (@KristiNoem) November 30, 2022 Her state government-wide ban against the use of social media app TikTok scored her fawning interviews on conservative outlets including Fox News and Newsmax, beaming her into the homes of potential admirers who don't happen to reside in the Mount Rushmore State. Noem seems far less enthusiastic about Trump these days, telling reporters that the twice-impeached, scandal-plagued former president isn't Republicans' "best chance" at retaking the White House in 2024. She issued this prediction just days after Trump announced he was running again.  Sen. Josh Hawley of MissouriSenator Josh Hawley (R-MO) speaks during the confirmation hearing for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson on March 22, 2022.JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)Hawley, 43, has reached for the spotlight whenever possible while Congress is in session.From famously saluting the January 6 protestors on the day of the violent siege at the Capitol to holding Brown Jackson's feet to the fire as she raced to join the Supreme Court, the first-term lawmaker works to portray himself as the perennial outsider who's only here to shake things up. He's played up the part by voting to overturn the 2020 election results on behalf of MAGA vote-magnet Trump, butting heads with McConnell on the way the upper chamber is run, and blaming short-sighted leaders for running the party into the ground. "When your 'agenda' is cave to Big Pharma on insulin, cave to Schumer on gun control & Green New Deal ('infrastructure'), and tease changes to Social Security and Medicare, you lose," Hawley, bemoaned on Twitter following a demoralizing midterms performance by flawed GOP candidates, which he blamed on "Washington Republicanism." The potential 2024 contender followed up with some suggestions, floating an alternative vision he said would help "unrig the system."   "What are Republicans actually going to do for working people? How about, to start: tougher tariffs on China, reshore American jobs, open up American energy full throttle, 100k new cops on the street," Hawley, who was also Missouri's former attorney general, tossed out on his social media feed. Asked by Insider about his intentions of formally jumping into the 2024 presidential race, Hawley laughed out loud for a few seconds. "I hope to run for reelection to the Senate in 2024. If the people of Missouri will have me," he said. Nowhere in there did Hawley say "no." Former Gov. Larry Hogan of MarylandGov. Larry Hogan of Maryland.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesEven before the bruising 2022 midterms, Hogan, 66, was warning that Republicans couldn't continue down the path they are on. "I am not about to give up on the Republican party or America," he wrote on Twitter in early December. "None of us can. It's too important."The two-term governor who beat a 2015 cancer scare has been fired up about plotting his next act. Hogan, a centrist Republican, is already making the rounds in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. A nonprofit group aligned with him reported raising $2 million in 2021, some of which was spent on "supporter acquisition" and "audience building." And Hogan recently scored some face time with GOP mega donors at this year's Republican Jewish Coalition leadership meeting — mentioning to political reporters covering the event that he and other potential 2024 hopefuls were there because "maybe there's a little blood in the water." Trump was notably absent at the event, but did video-conference in. As governor, Hogan signed a gun control bill into law and has said that while he opposed abortion, he wouldn't move to gut the state's guarantee on reproductive rights. During the COVID-19 pandemic he instituted a statewide mask mandate, then lifted restrictions in May 2021. While he has yet to formally declare a 2024 run, Hogan has begun billing himself as a "commonsense conservative" who GOP voters sick of losing may want to consider."I think there are 10 people who want to be the next Donald Trump, and I think there may be a different lane," Hogan said while stumping in Manchester, New Hampshire, adding, "I'm going to do everything I can to get the country back on track." He cast a write-in vote for Reagan in the 2020 election and called for Trump to be impeached or resign after January 6. Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of ArkansasArkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson attends the National Governors Association summer meeting, Friday, July 15, 2022, in Portland, Maine.Robert F. Bukaty/AP PhotoHutchinson, 72, hasn't been shy about criticizing Biden or Trump. After Trump's 2024 announcement, he said the former president's "self-indulging message promoting anger has not changed," and also disavowed the Fuentes and Ye meeting at Mar-a-Lago.Hutchinson has taken at least five trips to Iowa through America Strong & Free, the nonprofit of which he's the honorary chairman and spokesperson."I am seriously looking at a run in 2024 because America and the Republican Party are not in the best place," he said in a statement provided to Insider. "I know how to get us back on track both in terms of leadership and facing the challenging issues of border security, increased violent crime and energy inflation." He'll make a decision in January, he told KARK.As governor for the last eight years, he has pushed to make the state a leader in computer science, and signed several tax cuts into law, including lowering the state income tax rate from 7% to 4.9%. Hutchinson also signed bills into law blocking businesses from requiring customers and workers to show proof of COVID-19 vaccinations, and blocked state and local officials from obligating masks — a move he later said he regretted. He asked state lawmakers to create a carve-out for schools, but the Arkansas House rejected the proposal. While he signed an abortion ban into law in 2019 that took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, he said on CNN that he personally believes in exceptions for rape and incest."Many out there appreciate a 'consistent conservative,' even one they don't agree with all the time," Hutchinson told Insider. "I am not interested in the 'outrage of the day,' and I am committed to using my consistent conservative principles to guide me and our nation on important policy decisions." Hutchinson began his government career as a US attorney for the Western District of Arkansas under President Ronald Reagan, then went on to serve in the US House for three terms. President George W. Bush tapped him to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration, after which he served as undersecretary in the Department of Homeland Security. He has criticized Biden on illegal immigration, inflation, student loan forgiveness, and said on CNN that the president's September speech about democracy "singled out a segment of Americans and said basically they're our enemy."Hutchinson also has the distinction of being especially press friendly at a time when numerous Republicans have copied Trump's style of lashing out against journalists. "The media plays an important role in our democracy," Hutchinson told Insider. "I've never shied away from tough questions, and I have always been willing to defend my positions and conservative principles with the hard questions coming from the press."Former Vice President Mike PenceFormer Vice President Mike Pence speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition on Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPence, 63, has begun to distance himself from his former boss, while also promoting his new book, "So Help Me God." He told ABC's "World News Tonight" that Trump "decided to be part of the problem" by not immediately calling off the insurrectionists during the January 6 riot, after he declined to help invalidate Biden's lawful win. Pence also pushed back against Trump on WVOC in South Carolina after he called for terminating the Constitution, and came out forcefully after Trump had dinner with Fuentes."President Trump was wrong to give a white nationalist, an anti-Semite, and a Holocaust denier a seat at the table," he said on November 28. An adviser to the former vice president told Insider that, should Pence decide to run, the team has discussed several policy areas to differentiate himself, including Trump's bipartisan criminal justice reform bill, the First Step Act, and that he'll continue to be "very outspoken on the issue of life."In contrast, Trump didn't mention his three Supreme Court picks when he announced his 2024 presidential run, even though they helped overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that previously guaranteed a national right to abortion. Pence wouldn't have to worry about name ID during a presidential run. Still, his new book and a campaign would allow him to reintroduce himself to voters by talking about his work in the US House and then as governor of Indiana. He already has made numerous trips to early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina. Further, he'll be able to amplify policies that carried his fingerprints during the Trump administration, including his oversight of the US's pandemic response.Pence was a sought-after midterm surrogate, traveling to dozens of states. In May, he went to Georgia to help incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp beat Trump-backed primary challenger David Perdue.Pence's vision for the future of the party is laid out in his Freedom Agenda and Advancing American Freedom, the nonprofit aligned with him that serves as a type of campaign in waiting. The policies include reducing mail-in voting and implementing universal school choice, which allows public education funds to pay for K-12 students to select alternatives to public schools. While Pence didn't testify before the January 6 select committee, his senior aides including former chief of staff Marc Short and legal advisor J. Michael Luttig walked investigators through some of the scenarios that led up to the attack. In November, Pence said on Fox's "Hannity" that he would make a 2024 decision after discussing it with his family during the holidays. Former Secretary of State Mike PompeoFormer Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPompeo, 59, told Chicago donors in September that he already had teams in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.His outside campaign in waiting is called Champion American Values Fund, and Pompeo has been doing press appearances to talk about his forthcoming book, "Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love." Pompeo represented Kansas in the US Congress and was also former CIA director under Trump. After the end of the administration, he lost weight, which sparked speculation that he was interested in a White House run. Similar to Haley, Pompeo would enter the contest with a foreign policy background. He has openly criticized Biden, including after the president's September speech on protecting democracy. "He essentially said if you're pro-life or you're opposed to a certain set of policies, you're a threat," Pompeo told the New England Council's "Politics and Eggs" breakfast.  Biden, he said at the event, could be summed up as having "woke ideas, weak resolve, and waffling leadership."Trump should not have taken classified documents to Mar-a-Lago, he said, but added that the "raid on Mar-a-Lago was indecent and improper." Pompeo told conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt in November that Trump's announcement wouldn't affect whether he decides to run for president, adding that he'd make a determination in the spring. "We need more seriousness, less noise, and leaders who are looking forward," Pompeo said, "not staring in the rearview mirror claiming victimhood." Sen. Marco Rubio of FloridaWilfredo Lee/AP PhotoRubio, 51, has come out hot after cruising to a third term in November, castigating GOP leaders for totally blowing the midterms. "We have a historically unpopular Dem President, record inflation, a violent crime wave & total chaos at the border & not only did we fail to win a majority, we lost a seat. And the Senate GOP response is going to be to make no changes?" Rubio fumed in a December 7 Twitter post. His anger hadn't abated when Insider caught up with him at the US Capitol. "I don't know how you come back from what we have just encountered and conclude that the status quo and business as usual is how we want to proceed," Rubio said of the need for drastic changes within the GOP. While conceding that he doesn't have "all those answers," Rubio suggested that Senate Republicans take a hard look at "the mechanics of elections, policy, the legislative agenda, and all of that." "I think that's something we should all be involved in talking about," Rubio said of the sorely needed soul searching. Rubio, who is of Cuban descent, was speaker of the Florida House before heading to Washington. He has sponsored numerous bills that have become law, including doubling the child tax credit and co-authoring the Paycheck Protection Program that helped keep small businesses afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.On top of that, he's got a powerful perch as the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee. Political operatives have credited him with helping the GOP grow its influence with Hispanic voters, NBC News reported. Asked by Insider whether he had it in him to take another run at the former president after getting clobbered by the insult-flinging Trump in 2016, Rubio said he just really needs to take a breath. "We'll have time over the holidays and into the new year to sort of focus on everything going on in my life and here in the Senate," Rubio told Insider, adding that he hasn't "really focused in on" returning to the presidential proving grounds at the moment. Perhaps voters will learn more about future plans in his forthcoming book, "Decades of Decadence." Sen. Tim Scott of South CarolinaSen. Tim Scott, a Republican of South Carolkina, speaks at a fundraiser in Anderson, South Carolina on August 22, 2022.Meg Kinnard/AP Photo, FileScott, 57, hinted at a presidential bid during his midterms victory speech, even though he previously said he wouldn't run against Trump. "My grandfather voted for the first man of color to be elected as president of the United States," he said on November 8, referring to the vote his grandfather cast for Obama. "I wish he had lived long enough to see perhaps another man of color elected president of the United States. But this time, let it be a Republican and not just a Democrat. So just know: All things are possible in America."Scott, who previously served in the US House, is the only Black Republican in the Senate. He said his six-year term in the Senate beginning in January will be his last, but he hasn't ruled out a presidential run and is making all the right moves to position himself for the undertaking. Despite his own election, he has taken several trips to Iowa and spent time campaigning on behalf of other Republicans. He also released a memoir, "America, a Redemption Story: Choosing Hope, Creating Unity" and is one of the top fundraisers in the Senate — which includes support from small and online donors — even though he defended a safe seat this cycle.Major donors have contributed to Opportunity Matters Fun, a pro-Scott super PAC.Scott was among those leading the push for the successful passage of the bipartisan First Step Act and his measure to create Opportunity Zones that bring private investments into economically distressed communities was part of the 2017 tax reform law. He garnered national interest after delivering the GOP response to Biden's address to Congress in April. Afterward, McConnell said the senator represented "the future of the Republican Party." Scott has been open about the racism he has faced over the course of his life. "I get called Uncle Tom and the n-word by progressives, by liberals," he said in response to Biden's address. He has shared that police have pulled him over numerous times, despite him not violating any traffic laws. He sat down with Trump at the White House to discuss systemic racism and publicly called on Trump to call back certain statements he made on race. Haley, who was South Carolina governor at the time, appointed Scott to the Senate in 2013 after the seat opened up. Miami Mayor Francis SuarezTaylor Hill / Contributor Getty ImagesSuarez, 45, confirmed in October that he's considering a presidential run."It's something that I would consider given the right circumstances and given the right mood of the country," Suarez said at a Punchbowl News event. Miami has been getting a lot of attention given the surge of people moving to Florida — and tech companies and crypto startups in particular headed to Miami under Suarez's encouragement. He even told Twitter CEO Elon Musk that he should consider relocating the company's headquarters from San Francisco.Suarez's office sent over a list of accomplishments for the mayor, saying the city was No. 1 in job and wage growth, and had 1.4% unemployment. The Financial Times called Miami "the most important city in America." The mayor made historic increases to the city's police department, increased funding on climate-resistant infrastructure, and passed a rental tax credit for seniors. Suarez didn't vote for Trump during the 2020 election and in the 2018 gubernatorial race in Florida he voted for Democrat Andrew Gillum over DeSantis. But Suarez said Trump also has been kind to him. The two spoke at a wedding recently, he said, and Trump told him he was the "hottest politician in America after him.""I don't know if he meant physically hot or if he meant I was getting a lot of buzz," Suarez said. "But he was very nice." Suarez is of Cuban descent and leads the National Conference of Mayors. When asked about how he might stand out in a presidential race, Suarez said he might be able to speak to "a variety of minority communities that are going to be important if Republicans want to grow their base for a generation." Gov. Chris Sununu of New HampshireGov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire.Jon Cherry/Getty Images for ConcordiaSununu, 48, was just reelected to a fourth term in New Hampshire, where governors are reelected every two years and there are no term limits. "I haven't ruled anything in or out," he told Politico's "Playbook Deep Dive" podcast when asked about running for president in 2024. "I haven't ruled out a fifth term. I haven't ruled out running for higher office."Sununu is a centrist Republican who has the distinction of being in favor of abortion rights, at a time when many states are banning abortion. He came close to running for the US Senate in 2022, but told the Washington Examiner that other senators told him their main job was to be a "roadblock" in office — and he wasn't interested in that.Sununu also called Trump "fucking crazy" at the Gridiron dinner, a journalism event. "Let's stop supporting crazy, unelectable candidates in our primaries and start getting behind winners that can close the deal in November," Sununu said in November at Republican Jewish Coalition meeting.He told the Washington Examiner after the midterms that there should be new GOP leadership — not just in the White House but inside the Republican National Committee."Did they achieve on the level of results that we all thought we were going to get?" he asked. "No. So, why would we stick with the same team assuming we're going to get a better result?"Sununu is part of a political dynasty. His father was governor of New Hampshire who then went on to work in the George H.W. Bush administration as chief of staff. His brother was in the US House and US Senate. Gov. Glenn Youngkin of VirginiaGov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia.AP Photo/Steve Helber, FileYoungkin, 56, tried his hand at playing kingmaker in over a dozen 2022 gubernatorial contests and mostly came up short. The newly-minted Republican who rocketed to stardom in late 2021 by keeping Virginia purplish with his electrifying win over Democratic fixture Terry McAuliffe tried to work that same Trump-light magic into contests all around the country. The result: only four of the 15 Republican gubernatorial candidates Youngkin got involved with won their races. It's unclear whether Youngkin had any effect on the reelection bids of blowout winners like Kemp or Noem.By the same token, it's debatable whether he could have dragged Lake, Michigan's Tudor Dixon, or any of the other 2020 election deniers across the finish line given their full-on embrace of Trumpism. While he remains reluctant to badmouth the embattled former president, Youngkin clinched his 2021 win by keeping Trump at bay while still reaching out to the MAGA base. Trump, on the other hand, has tried to take full credit for Youngkin's win and lashed out at the newcomer for not being more appreciative. Trump's already working on trying to clip a Youngkin presidential bid from ever taking wing, panning him and DeSantis as ingrates who have no chance of beating him. Trump also reverted to his old tricks after the politically damaging 2022 midterms flop, hitting Youngkin with a bizarre, racist rant on Truth Social. Given that Virginia only allows governors to serve non-consecutive terms, it makes sense for Youngkin to seek opportunities elsewhere.The Washington Post reported that Youngkin spent part of his summer huddling with Republican mega donors in New York. And while he remains mum on any official plans for 2024, Politico said Youngkin's putting in place the types of fundraising groups a presidential candidate would want to have at the ready.Youngkin is a former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group. As governor, his first official action was to sign an executive order prohibiting Virginia schools from teaching "critical race theory." More recently, he's been pushing to reimburse individuals and businesses who paid fines for violating state COVID-19 restrictions under his Democratic predecessor.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

With Nikki Haley Officially Announcing Her White House Run, Trump Camp Shifts To Attack Mode Authored by Ross Muscato via The Epoch Times, Former President Donald Trump, a 2024 candidate for the White House, recently made accommodating, understanding, and gracious comments about the anticipated run for president of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who served in his cabinet as Ambassador to the United Nations. Trump also, along with those comments, lightly suggested a Haley presidential campaign would be an exercise in disloyalty to him. Speaking with reporters while aboard his plane on Jan. 28, Trump said, “Nikki Haley called me the other day to talk with me—I talked with her for a while. But I said, ‘Look, go by your heart if you want to run.’ “She’s publicly said, ‘I would never run against my president; he was a great president.'” President Donald Trump and Nikki Haley in the Oval Office in Washington on Oct. 9, 2018. (Mark Wilson/Getty Images/File) As a guest on the Hugh Hewitt Show three days later, Trump shared a similar message, saying Haley called and asked him about her running. “I told her she should follow her heart. You know, she said numerous times, I put it up, actually, ‘that I would never run if our president runs,'” Trump told Hewitt. “‘He was a great president,’ et cetera, et cetera. She said that numerous times. But she’s a very ambitious person. She just couldn’t stay in her seat. And I said, you know what? Nikki, if you want to run, you go ahead and run.” On Feb. 14, Haley made it official with her announcement in an online video about three minutes and 30 seconds long that she is a candidate for president. She is the first announced opponent of Trump in the 2024 Republican primaries. And Haley is now in what many may call an unenviable position of being the only official candidate on whom Trump and his camp can direct their attacks. Quickly out of the gate going after Haley was the pro-Trump Super PAC MAGA Inc. “Nikki Haley is just another career politician,” Taylor Budowich, an executive with MAGA and a former spokesperson for Trump, wrote in a statement. “She started out as a Never Trumper before resigning to serve in the Trump admin. She then resigned early to go rake in money on corporate boards,” he wrote. Budowich added, “Now, she’s telling us she represents a ‘new generation.’ Sure just looks like more of the same, a career politician whose only fulfilled commitment is to herself.” A newly published Reuters/Ipsos 2024 Republican primary poll shows Trump firmly in the lead at 42.8 percent, Ron DeSantis at 30.5 percent, Mike Pence (7.5 percent), and Nikki Haley with 3.9 percent. Liz Cheney holds the fifth position with (1.9 percent). Tyler Durden Wed, 02/15/2023 - 15:25.....»»

Futures Trim Losses As Focus Turns To Earnings US stock futures slipped for a second day as investors braced for a busy week of parsing earnings reports for signs of an earnings recession, falling profitability and an economic slowdown. Contracts on the S&P 500 fell 0.2% at 7:10 a.m. ET, recovering from a -0.5% drop earlier, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.3% after trading in the cash market was closed on Monday for a holiday. The dollar was flat after rebounding from an 8 month low on Monday while the US 10-year Treasury yield rises to top about 3.55%. In premarket trading, shares of Chinese electric-vehicle makers like XPeng Inc. retreated amid worries over demand and competition after the company slashed prices on its models in China. Bank stocks were also lower as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were set to report their fourth-quarter results before the bell. In corporate news, Bank of America shares got their only sell-equivalent rating after the company flagged a slowdown in lending last week. Whirlpool fell 6% in early New York trading after reporting fourth-quarter net sales of $4.90 billion, compared with forecasts for $5.15 billion. Freeport McMoRan slid 2.6%. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts predict copper could fall to $8,000 a ton from more than $9,000 now as physical demand indicators are weakening. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Pfizer (PFE US) stock slides 1.5% after it was cut to equal-weight from overweight at Wells Fargo, which sees an earnings downgrade cycle on the horizon for the pharma giant. Cryptocurrency-related stocks rally, as Bitcoin extends its winning streak into a 14th day and trades above the $21,000 level. Coinbase +6%, Riot Platforms +8.3%, Bakkt +10%, Marathon Digital +9.4% MGO Global rises 43% to $6.65 in premarket trading, reversing losses from a volatile initial trading session in which the stock more than tripled before closing lower, the latest in a series of wild debuts for US small-cap listings. Keep an eye on Tesla after Jefferies cut its target for the stock to $180 from $350, as the brokerage slashed sales and earnings estimates for the electric-car maker. The company last week cut prices across its lineup in an effort to stoke demand after several quarters of disappointing deliveries. Watch Wells Fargo stock as it was cut to hold from buy at Jefferies with the risk-reward on the US lender now looking more balanced. Keep an eye on utilities as KeyBanc Capital Markets turned more negative on the outlook for the sector into 2023, downgrading CenterPoint Energy and Southern Co to sector weight. Watch Global Payments stock as it was upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley, which says that fintech and payments sector offers “increasingly compelling” valuations from a more favorable backdrop. Piper Sandler downgrades Bandwidth (BAND US), DigitalOcean (DOCN US) and RingCentral (RNG US) to neutral as it tweaks its cloud automation software ratings, with Nice (NICE US) upgraded to overweight and Nutanix (NTNX US) its top pick. Morgan Stanley is guarded on hardline, broadline and food retail coverage to start 2023 as it sees more headwinds than tailwinds, with the magnitude of the headwinds outweighing the tailwinds. Wayfair (W US) and Kroger (KR US) upgraded to equal-weight from underweight; National Vision (EYE US) downgraded to equal-weight from overweight. Bank stocks reversed losses to trade higher on Friday, even after JPM CEO Jamie Dimon and BofA's Brian Moynihan warned of an uncertain economic environment as four of the six biggest US lenders reported their fourth-quarter results. Lenders Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley report earnings on Tuesday. Investors will dissect results for the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and signs of consumer spending slowdown. “The spread between our earnings model and consensus forecasts is nearly as wide as it’s ever been and suggests a drawdown in stocks for which most are not prepared,” Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson wrote in his latest gloomy note. “The main culprit is the elevated and volatile inflationary environment which is likely to play havoc with profitability.” Meanwhile, according to Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey, investors are the most underweight on US equities since 2005 as improving market sentiment sends them flocking toward cheaper regions. Allocation to US equities “collapsed” during the first month of 2023, with investors a net 39% underweight the asset class, they said, exceeding even the UK’s 15%. At the same time, participants in the January poll were “a lot less bearish” than in the fourth quarter, sparking a rotation to emerging markets, Europe and cyclical stocks, and away from pharmaceuticals, technology and the US, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note. Investors had their expectations for a pause in central-bank tightening damped by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, who said interest rates will have to move into restrictive territory to bring inflation back to target. BlackRock Inc. Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand said he saw no chance of policy easing this year. Data including a record increase in UK wages signaled further rate hikes are necessary. “We’ve just hit pause and I am sure there’s some profit taking,” said James Athey, investment director at Edinburgh-based abrdn. “We‘re into the earnings season which likely brings with it risks and volatility. If you run a risk-parity or 60/40 book, you’ve done brilliantly already this year. It seems prudent to trim some risk.” US corporate earnings may set the tone for traders this week as the reporting season moves up a gear. Of the 30 companies on the S&P 500 that have posted earnings so far, 24 have beaten analysts’ expectations. However, UBS Wealth Management expects “quite a bit of downside here on the earnings” in the US, according to Hartmut Issel, head of Asia Pacific equities. European stocks and bonds are both in the red as investors contemplated the prospect of ongoing monetary tightening after ECB Chief Economist Lane said rates will have to move into restrictive territory. The BOE are also facing pressure to continue hiking after UK wages rose at their fastest rate on record, excluding the pandemic. The Stoxx 600 was down 0.2% and on course to snap a four-day winning streak with technology, real estate and autos leading declines. Here are some of the most notable European movers: ABB shares rise as much as 1.9% after Redburn upgrades stock to buy from sell, saying recent business exits could mean the Swiss industrial group can grow faster than earlier expected Wacker Chemie, one of Europe’s largest producers of polysilicon, rose as much as 3.7% after prices of the material used in solar panels surged in China Infineon shares rise as much as 2.4% after Barclays starts coverage of European semiconductor stocks with a preference for Infineon and STMicro, rating both overweight Alten shares rise as much as 4.5% after Kepler Cheuvreux raised its recommendation for the French engineering company to buy from hold, citing its ability to deliver strong growth Lindt shares rise as much as 1.1% after the Swiss chocolate maker delivered estimate-beating organic sales growth, Vontobel says, with FY23 guidance in line with mid-term targets Wise shares fall as much as 7.1% after the UK money-transfer firm’s volume growth slowed, coming in below analyst expectations in the fiscal third quarter Ocado Group shares decline as much as 11% after the online grocer reported 4Q retail sales that missed analyst estimates. Morgan Stanley said period performance was “disappointing” Philips falls as much as 5.6% after UBS cut the Dutch medical technology group to sell, describing a recent month-long rally as “unjustified,” and flagging downside risks to earnings Hugo Boss drops as much as 2.7% as Deustche Bank said a “mild” beat of 4Q consensus estimates failed to impress investors Asian stocks were mixed as investors assessed data on China’s economic growth and braced for the Bank of Japan’s key policy decision due Wednesday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed as of 4:30p.m. Hong Kong time, as losses in financial shares offset an advance in consumer discretionary stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.8%, ending a four-day rally. Alibaba gained 1% after news that billionaire-investor Ryan Cohen has acquired a stake worth hundreds of millions of dollars in the second half of last year. China’s CSI 300 Index ended flat after a report showed the nation’s gross domestic product grew 3% in 2022, higher than economists expected. The market took a breather after three days of gains fueled by optimism over reopening and eased tech regulations.  “I believe that the market will welcome such numbers,” said Hao Hong, chief economist at Grow Investment Group, in a Bloomberg TV interview. Still, “if the property sector takes more time to recover, it will affect consumption as well. So this year is actually going to be more challenging than last year.”  Investors in Asia will also monitor speeches by several Federal Reserve officials this week, as well as comments by central bankers during the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Japanese stocks rose, ending a two-day loss, as investors adjusted positions before the Bank of Japan’s policy decision tomorrow. Although almost all economists polled by Bloomberg expect no change at the BOJ on Wednesday, some investors are bracing for more action as the central bank struggles to keep bond yields below its target.  The Topix Index rose 0.9% to 1,902.89 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 1.2% to 26,138.68. Toyota Motor contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.5%. Out of 2,161 stocks in the index, 1,570 rose and 474 fell, while 117 were unchanged Australian stocks dipped: the S&P/ASX 200 index closed slightly lower at 7,386.30, snapping four days of gains, as losses in mining and technology stocks weighed on the gauge.  Most markets across Asia fell as traders digested data that showed China’s economy growing at the second slowest pace since the 1970s.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.6% to 11,881.00 India’s benchmark stock gauge posted its biggest advance in more than a week as Reliance Industries led gains among energy firms amid improving outlook for the sector. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.9% to 60,655.72 in Mumbai, its largest single-day jump since Jan. 9. The NSE Nifty 50 Index rallied by a similar measure. All but three of the 20 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by capital goods makers. Reliance Industries gained 1.4%, after five-straight declines, to push the oil-and-gas sector gauge to an all-time high after the government lowered windfall tax on locally-produced crude and export of diesel.  Outlook for oil and gas companies has been improving as moderating crude prices allow state-run refiners to lower marketing losses while Reliance Industries benefits from higher margins.  The Bloomberg Dollar Index inched up 0.1% as the greenback traded higher against most of its Group-of-10 peers. Scandinavian currencies were the worst performers while the Swiss franc led G-10 gains. The pound gained and gilts slumped in the wake of UK labor data that showed wages rose at a near-record pace for the three months through November. Yields rose 5-7bps across the curve and traders also bolstered bets on the BOE’s peak rate The euro inched lower, but held above $1.08. Bunds eased across the curve and Italian bonds underperformed. Germany January ZEW investor expectations rose to 16.9 versus estimate -15.0 Japan’s benchmark yield briefly rose above the central bank’s ceiling for a third day as the Bank of Japan starts a two-day policy meeting. The yen fell for a second day. Most economists expect the BOJ to stand pat although market watchers don’t rule out an adjustment including another widening of the yield band to 0.75 or higher, or a scrapping of the yield curve control The Australian and New Zealand dollars reversed an Asia session gain amid broad-based dollar strengthening. Australia’s consumer confidence jumped 5%, the largest monthly gain since April 2021, aided by a temporary respite from interest-rate increase as the Reserve Bank’s board doesn’t meet this month In rates, the Treasury curve extended bear-steepening move after 30-year yields gap higher from the reopen after Monday’s US holiday. Treasury yields were cheaper by up to 7bp across long-end of the curve with 10-year note futures trading toward bottom of Monday’s range; 10-year yields around 3.56% and cheaper by ~5bp vs Friday’s close. Gilts weaker over London session after UK wages rise faster than forecast while European supply pressures also weigh on core rates.  Long-end-led losses in US curve steepen 2s10s, 5s30s cash spreads by 5bp and 4bp vs Friday’s close. UK and German government bonds fall with 10-year borrowing costs rising 6bps and 2bps respectively. In commodities, rose to session highs after earlier dropping  WTI rose 0.65% to trade above $80. Spot gold falls roughly $10 to trade near 1,906/oz. Bitcoin is essentially unchanged on the session and resides in particularly narrow sub-USD 400 parameters after last week's marked upside. To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment for November, the German ZEW survey for January, Canadian CPI for December, and the US Empire State manufacturing survey for January. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Centeno and the Fed’s Williams. Finally, earnings releases include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and United Airlines. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,007.75 MXAP little changed at 165.62 MXAPJ down 0.4% to 544.25 Nikkei up 1.2% to 26,138.68 Topix up 0.9% to 1,902.89 Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 21,577.64 Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,224.25 Sensex up 0.9% to 60,629.94 Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,386.29 Kospi down 0.9% to 2,379.39 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 454.10 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.19% Euro little changed at $1.0822 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $84.78/bbl Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,908.36 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.17% to 102.38 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno said the euro-area economy is performing better than many anticipated in the face of record inflation and the energy crisis that erupted after Russia attacked Ukraine ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said interest rates will have to move into “restrictive territory” to bring inflation back to target Investors are looking to bet against Italy’s peer-beating bond rally, saying the gains have gone too far. They argue the ECB is expected to keep hiking interest rates and is unlikely to stand in the way of a selloff given how narrow the spread over German bunds remains Investors are the most underweight on US equities since 2005 as improving market sentiment sends them flocking toward cheaper regions, according to Bank of America’s global fund manager survey Some 467,000 working days in the UK were lost to strikes in November, a 10-year high, after a wave of walkouts caused by the most severe cost-of-living crisis in a generation. Days lost over a six-month period reached the highest level since 1989-90 The BOJ’s policy decision due Wednesday is shaping up to be the biggest risk for the dollar-yen pair since the global financial crisis. The currency pair’s overnight implied volatility jumped as high as 54.4 vol, the highest since November 2008, as traders positioned for another policy tweak following a surprise move in December An arbitrage trade that rattled Japan’s bond market last year looks to be back. The spread between the prices on Japanese 10-year debt and similar-maturity futures has swelled in recent weeks, providing room for so-called basis trades that try to take advantage of the difference This year is pivotal for the Japanese economy to move away from decades of deflationary thinking toward sustained real wage growth, according to the head of the country’s largest labor union While China’s GDP grew 3% last year, the second-slowest pace since the 1970s, fourth- quarter and December data came in better than economists had expected China’s population started shrinking in 2022 for the first time in six decades, the latest milestone in a worsening demographic crisis for the world’s second-largest economy A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded mixed in which most bourses lacked firm direction in the absence of a lead from the US due to MLK Jr. Day and despite the better-than-expected Chinese economic growth and activity data. ASX 200 was subdued with the index contained after it hit resistance at the 7,400 level, while an improvement in Westpac Consumer Confidence and an increase in Rio Tinto’s quarterly output did little to inspire trade. Nikkei 225 outperformed with strength in the auto sector driving the advances and as the BoJ kicked off its 2-day policy meeting with markets second-guessing what the central bank will decide regarding its ultra-easy policy. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre despite encouraging data in which Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures all topped estimates. Nonetheless, the 3.0% growth for 2022 was much lower than the ‘abandoned’ target of around 5.5% and President Xi’s hint of at least 4.4% growth, while China also noted its population shrunk for the first time since 1961 and the death rate was the highest since 1974. Top Asian News PBoC injected CNY 205bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and injected CNY 301bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a CNY 504bln net injection. China's Customs said GDP grew 3.0% Y/Y in 2022 and that China was able to stabilise the economy, but added that the foundation for economic recovery is not solid yet, according to Reuters. China's stats bureau stated China's population in 2022 shrunk for the first time since 1961 and the death rate was the highest since 1974, although the stats bureau chief later noted they should not worry about China's population decline and overall labour supply still exceeds demand. The stats bureau chief also said that benign inflation in China will create room for macro policies and that the property sector's drag on economic growth this year will not be larger than in 2022, according to Reuters. European equities trade marginally lower following a mixed APAC lead, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%. Sectors in Europe are now mostly lower with no overall bias, but with Chemicals and Industrials outperforming and Autos and Energy towards the bottom. US equity futures are softer but off worse levels with the ES holding above 4,000 throughout the Tuesday session. Top European News ECB's Centeno says Q4 growth within Europe is likely to be positive. European Economy Commissioner Gentiloni says we have to strengthen competitiveness by streamlining state aid rules, have a good EU-US partnership; need to support competitiveness, not begin a subsidy war with the US. European Commission President von der Leyen says to avoid fragmenting the EU's single market and to support clean tech across the EU, EU has to step up finding; For medium term will prepare a European sovereignty fund but it will take time. Germany's BDI President says mild recessionary tendencies will predominate at the start of the year, sees upward trend; Economy expected to shrink by 0.3% in 2023; sees real 1% increase in export of goods and services this year (vs 1.5% global trade). FX A choppy Tuesday session thus far for the Dollar as the index matched yesterday’s 102.56 peak in APAC hours before waning towards the unchanged mark ahead of the European cash open. CNH is softer intraday despite supportive Chinese data overnight, which saw Q4 GDP, IP and Retail Sales top expectations across the board. USD/JPY is choppy in a 128.23-129.13 parameter, but within recent ranges, whilst the technical “death cross” is more evident as the 50 DMA (135.60) falls further below the 200 DMA (136.67). Mixed trade seen across both the EUR and GBP with the latter leading the way following the UK jobs data following strong wages metrics which subsequently lifted BoE market pricing for a 50bps hike (at the time) to around 72% from 63% pre-release. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7222 vs exp. 6.7234 (prev. 6.7135) Fixed Income Core benchmarks are downbeat after UK and German data, with USTs in tandem directionally but with magnitudes more contained ahead of Fed's Williams. Bunds and, post-open, Gilts printed session lows of 137.66 and 103.37 respectively post-UK jobs data, with the benchmarks nearing but not retesting these points after a particularly strong ZEW release. Following the UK jobs data, we have seen an uptick in BoE pricing for 50bp in February to a 75% probability from circa. 63% pre-release. Commodities WTI and Brent front-month futures diverge intraday on account of the US MLK holiday on Monday which resulted in no WTI settlement. WTI Feb holds onto a USD 79/bbl status whilst Brent trades on either side of USD 85/bbl in what has been a choppy session. Spot gold has been drifting lower as the Dollar remains firm, with the yellow metal trundling lower from highs of USD 1,919/oz down to around USD 1,905/oz. Base metals are softer across the board (but to varying degrees) despite the supportive Chinese data overnight as a firmer Dollar exerts pressure on the complex. China's state planner, NDRC is to lower retail prices of gasoline an diesel by CNY 205/tonne and CNY 195/tonne respectively as of January 18th. Radio Free Europe's Jozwiak writes "Review underway on the Russian oil price cap. Currently at USD 60 but I understand there is a good chance that it might be lowered a bit in upcoming weeks". OPEC Secretary General is very bullish on China, and cautiously optimistic on the global economy; Chinese demand will grow by 500k barrels this year; waiting to see what happens after China's New Year holiday (Jan 21st-29th). Geopolitics Russian Defence Ministry discussed increasing the number of military personnel to 1.5mln (vs ~1.3mln in 2022), according to Tass; says major changes in Russian army will take place from 2023-26. Ukrainian President Zelensky said the attack in Dnipro underscores the need for new and faster decisions on weapons supplies, while he added they expect key decisions from partners on arms supplies at the Ramstein meeting. Russian-installed Donetsk authorities confirm that Russia has control of Soledar, via Tass. Russia deployed an SU-27 fighter plane to escort a German naval aircraft over the Baltic, according to Interfax. Russian Kremlin when asked about a potential meeting between the CIA's Burns and Russia spy chief says "this kind of dialogue is beneficial". UK is reviewing whether to designate Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organisation, according to FT. China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson says they are discussing the details of a visit from US Secretary of State Blinken. Iran's IRGC have conducted "major drills" in the Persian Gulf, according to Tasnim; details light. US Event Calendar 08:30: Jan. Empire Manufacturing, est. -8.6, prior -11.2 Central Bank Speakers 15:00: Fed’s Williams Gives Welcoming Remarks DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I hope you are all looking forward to the rest of the year now after Blue Monday was navigated yesterday, which flew hot on the heels of Friday 13th at the end of last week. To be fair markets of late haven't been either depressing or scary. However we took pause for breath yesterday, given the US holiday, with nothing much happening. The main news has instead been overnight, where we’ve just had the release of the Chinese GDP figures for Q4 that covers the December surge in Covid cases. The data was better than expected but still showed the scars from Covid. Q4 GDP (+2.9%) beat expectations (+1.6%) with the FY at +3% (+2.7% expected and +8.1% in 2021) - the second lowest year since China re-emerged from the economic wilderness in the 1970s. Momentum was much stronger than expected in December though. Retail sales dropped -1.8% y/y in December, much better than -9.0% fall expected by analysts and compared to a -5.9% decline in the prior month. Meanwhile, industrial production grew +1.3% y/y, well above the +0.1% predicted by Bloomberg. At the same time, fixed asset investment for 2022 rose by +5.1%, slightly above the +5% expected by Bloomberg. Asian markets are lower though led by the Hang Seng (-1.25%) followed by the KOSPI (-0.77%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.27%) and the CSI (-0.16%). Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+1.28%) is bucking the trend this morning, recouping some of the losses from the previous two sessions. In overnight trading, stock futures in the US are indicating a negative opening with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.32%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.54%) trading in the red. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr USTs (+2.95 bps) have edged higher to 3.53% after the holiday. Looking back at yesterday now, it was an incredibly uneventful session for the most part, even adjusting for the impact of the US holiday. For instance, if you look at US futures markets (since spot markets were closed), S&P 500 futures had barely budged by the time Europe went home, with a modest decline of -0.10%. It was a similar story for bonds, where futures also saw little change, perhaps in part since expectations of the Fed’s terminal rate for June moved up by just +0.002bps on the day. That said, despite the lack of excitement, the VIX index of volatility ticked up from its one-year low on Friday, moving up +1.14pts to 19.49pts. Back in Europe there wasn’t much happening either, but one trend to note was the continued decline in natural gas futures yesterday, which fell back to a 16-month low of €55.45 per megawatt-hour. Although these prices are still well above their historic norms, they’ve now come down by more than half in the last month, so this is a big and positive shock if it ends up being sustained. In turn, that led to a fresh decline in inflation expectations, and the 10yr German breakeven came down a further -2.9bps to a 3-month low of 2.05%. That greater optimism on the inflation side wasn’t enough to prevent a modest decline in sovereign bonds yesterday, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.6bps), OATs (+0.6bps) and BTPs (+0.6bps) all seeing a small increase. Gilts were an underperformer, with 10yr yields up +1.8bps rise on the day as UK assets more broadly saw a slight underperformance. That came as BoE Governor Bailey testified before the Treasury Committee of MPs, where he warned that there was a risk that inflation wouldn’t drop as fast as expected. Overall however, there was nothing revelatory on how they’re thinking about the next decision on February 2. With the positive gas news boosting sentiment more broadly, European equities advanced for the most part. The STOXX 600 rose +0.46%, taking the index up to its highest level since April, with other advances for the FTSE 100 (+0.20%), the DAX (+0.31%) and the CAC 40 (+0.28%). That continues the very positive start to the year for European equities, and means that the YTD returns now stand at +7.00% for the STOXX 600 and +8.69% for the DAX. Finally, the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting at Davos opened last night, which will continue for the rest of the week. Numerous political and business leaders are gathering there, and today’s speakers include European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez and German finance minister Christian Lindner. Separately, it’s not actually a Davos meeting, but we heard yesterday that US Treasury Secretary Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He would be meeting in Zurich. To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment for November, the German ZEW survey for January, Canadian CPI for December, and the US Empire State manufacturing survey for January. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Centeno and the Fed’s Williams. Finally, earnings releases include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and United Airlines. Tyler Durden Tue, 01/17/2023 - 07:36.....»»

Futures Rally Fizzles After Micron's Downbeat Outlook Saps Sentiment US stock futures reversed gains from earlier in the session and struggled to hold the momentum that propelled the S&P 500 to its best daily gain in three weeks, as investors assessed whether the world’s biggest economy can skirt worst-case recession scenarios. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 were both 0.3% lower at 7:30 am ET, erasing earlier gains of 0.3%. Both indexes had bounced on Wednesday following better-than-expected earnings from FedEx and Nike as well as a pickup in consumer confidence, but the mood was dampened by memory chipmaker Micron, whose gloomy outlook knocked its shares in US premarket trading and weighed on other chip firms. European semiconductor shares also fell, erasing earlier gains on the Stoxx 600 gauge, though it remains set to break a two-week losing spell. The dollar index was flat while the US 10-year yield dropped to about 3.64%. Among notable movers in premarket trading, ORIC Pharmaceuticals surged as much as 70% after the company entered into a clinical development collaboration for a potential Phase 2 study of ORIC-533 in multiple myeloma with Pfizer. Micron Technology shares fall 3%, after the chipmaker’s second-quarter revenue forecast was weaker than expected at the midpoint, stoking analyst concerns that demand is faltering and that the downcycle the company is seeing hasn’t yet reached a bottom. Bank stocks were also lower and on track to snap a two-day winning streak. In corporate news, executives at BlackRock discussed buying Carlyle Group earlier this year after the private equity giant pushed out its chief executive, the Financial Times reported. Here are some other notable premarket movers: US-listed Chinese stocks are higher across the board in Thursday’s premarket trading after a report that China is planning to shorten the quarantine period for inbound overseas travelers in January. Alibaba +2.6%, Baidu +2.1%, JD.com +3%, Bilibili +3.9%, Nio +2%, Li Auto +3.2% IsoPlexis climbs 64% after Berkeley Lights agreed to acquire it in an all-stock transaction valued at $57.8 million. Berkeley Lights shares dropped 6.7% Lexicon Pharmaceuticals shares decline 8.4% on low volumes after the company said results of a Phase 2 proof-of-concept study of LX9211 in postherpetic neuralgia didn’t reach statistical significance on the primary endpoint Keep an eye on Getty Images stock as it was rated a new outperform at Wedbush, which notes the firm’s record of strong execution “and a compelling and consistent profit profile.” US stocks just days away from finishing a year nursing the worst losses since the GFC as an unexpectedly hawkish Federal Reserve and stubbornly high inflation fueled the biggest slump for the S&P 500 since the global financial crisis. Although inflation has started to ease, market strategists are cautious about a recovery next year amid fears of a possible recession and its impact on corporate earnings. So far a Santa rally which some had expected would emerge in the final trading days has been difficult to pin down: December 2022 has been one of the ugliest last months of the year in recent history, and the S&P 500’s large decline this month contrasts with an average 1.5% December gain since 1950, providing sidelined global investors with plenty of “dry powder” to put to work, according to SEB. "The resilience of the US economy thus continues to impress, and the probability is turned up a mini step for a soft landing,” Stockholm-based analysts at the firm told clients. On the other hand, war, inflation, and monetary policy tightening are pressuring companies’ large order books and profitability, they added. "Recession is now the base case and US equities aren’t priced for it,” said Skylar Montgomery Koning, senior global macro strategist at TS Lombard. In an interview with Bloomberg TV, she added that stocks weren’t likely to bottom before the onset of the recession or a pivot from the Fed. On other hand, “you may get a slowdown in growth but just because inflation stays high, that means earnings could still stay high,” she said. Bank of America's iconic strategist Michael Hartnett recommended bonds in the first half of 2023 and said he’s more optimistic about equities in the second half after interest rates have peaked and corporate profits bottomed. Against that backdrop, he expects 60/40 portfolios to generate positive returns in 2023. European stocks also reversed earlier gains and at last check, the Stoxx 600 traded down 0.2%. Autos, tech and consumer products are the worst performing sectors, while energy stocks are the best-performing sector as oil holds on to gains made over the last three days, with traders weighing the effects of lower US inventories and a weaker dollar against concerns over Chinese demand. Here are the biggest European movers: Earlier in the session, equities in the Asia Pacific region rose, headed for their first gain in six sessions, as investors returned to Chinese stocks on positive policy signals, Japanese shares snapped a three-day losing streak while Hong Kong gained almost 3%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.3%, with benchmarks in Hong Kong jumping more than 2.7%. Investors cheered as Chinese officials urged the implementation of policies that will support the economy. “After much of the profit-taking is out of the way, and with a subsiding of fear over the surge in Covid cases at the initial stage of reopening, the Hong Kong and China market may do a bit better,” said Redmond Wong, a strategist at Saxo Capital Markets. Japanese equities rebounded after falling for five days as improving consumer confidence in the US and strong earnings by some companies boosted investor sentiment.  The Topix Index rose 0.8% to 1,908.17 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 0.5% to 26,507.87. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 1.8%. Out of 2,163 stocks in the index, 1,650 rose and 402 fell, while 111 were unchanged. “The rise in Japanese stocks mirrors the US stocks rise from good earnings performances by some companies and the fact that it reflected the upswing in consumer confidence,” said Takeru Ogihara, chief strategist at Asset Management One. “However, the Bank of Japan’s policy revisions have not been fully digested in yet.” India stocks fell, as minutes of the central bank’s latest policy meeting indicated more rate hikes. Other regional gauges were broadly higher, supported by a greater-than-expected increase in US consumer confidence.  Asian stocks had pulled back in recent sessions as the BOJ surprised with its decision Tuesday that may lead to higher borrowing costs, just as major cities in China struggle to cope with the spread of the coronavirus. The MSCI Asian gauge is down 18% this year, in line with the S&P 500 Index. In FX, the yen resumed its rise while the dollar slipped against a group of currency peers, headed for a third month of losses. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.2% as the greenback was steady or weaker against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Risk- sensitive Scandinavian currencies and the Australian dollar were the best performers.  Incremental shifts in capital flows and interest rate was key for the greenback, Jefferies analyst Brad Bechtel noted, adding “the Fed is close to done hiking, which means that real rates in the US are done rising and will moderate a bit, taking pressure off of the dollar.” The euro advanced, yet stayed within recent ranges against the greenback. Bunds and Italian bonds were little changed The pound fell against both the dollar and the euro. Data showed the UK economy shrank more than expected last quarter while UK household incomes fell for a fourth straight quarter. The yen strengthened on the back of a broadly weaker dollar Australian dollar climbed as details of a meeting between Chinese agencies held to discuss support measures to counter the effects of Covid outbreaks spurred risk-on sentiment Chinese authorities ramped up their calls to prioritize growth next year and help the property sector recover from its worst slump on record, in further signs the economy will be top of mind in 2023 In rates, yields on Treasuries and euro zone bonds slipped but concerns remain that Japanese investors could now be persuaded to bring home some of the trillions of dollars they have stashed in foreign stocks and bonds. That could further lift global borrowing costs and drag on already cooling economic growth. Treasuries were slightly richer across the curve with gains led by belly, extending 5s30s steepening move back toward Wednesday session highs. US 10-year yields around 3.64% and richer by 2bp on the day, outperforming bunds and gilts by 3bp in the sector; belly-led gains steepens 5s30s spread by 1.5bp on the day to -4bp, reached -0.55bp Wednesday. Gilts, bunds trade cheaper on the day, lagging gains in Treasuries. US session focus includes GDP and a 5-year TIPS auction at 1pm New York. Japan’s 10-year yield fell after the BOJ conducted an additional debt-purchase operation to halt this week’s selloff. In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude futures held above $78 a barrel, extending their gain into a fourth day, benefiting from a decline in US inventories and the consumer confidence uptick. Growth-sensitive copper prices also rose for the fourth straight day. Oil prices were poised to end an extraordinarily volatile year modestly higher.  Spot gold has been unable to benefit from the Dollar’s downside and remains towards the lower-end of tight $1813-1820/oz parameters while silver has slipped slightly to below the $24/oz mark. Despite the move in crude, base metals have been unable to benefit from the COVID update, with LME Copper modestly softer on the session. Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the third estimate of Q3 GDP, the weekly initial jobless claims, and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for December. Otherwise, we’ll also get decisions from a couple of G20 central banks, with those in Indonesia and Turkey deciding on rates. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 3,909.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 432.64 MXAP up 1.2% to 157.28 MXAPJ up 1.4% to 510.18 Nikkei up 0.5% to 26,507.87 Topix up 0.8% to 1,908.17 Hang Seng Index up 2.7% to 19,679.22 Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,054.43 Sensex down 0.3% to 60,860.99 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,152.50 Kospi up 1.2% to 2,356.73 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.31% Euro up 0.3% to $1.0636 Brent Futures up 1.1% to $83.11/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,815.96 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.19% to 103.97 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said interest-rate hikes like the half-point move seen at this month’s meeting may become the standard as officials maintain their fight with soaring inflation Mild weather is expected to remain over most of Europe during the holidays, dimming the chances of a white Christmas but easing pressure on the region’s power grids China plans to cut quarantine requirements for overseas travelers in January, according to people familiar with the matter, as the country dismantles the last vestiges of its Covid Zero policy China is likely experiencing 1 million Covid infections and 5,000 virus deaths every day as it grapples with what is expected to be the biggest outbreak the world has ever seen, according to a new analysis Traffic in China’s biggest cities has dropped to the lowest since the Lunar New Year break in the early part of the year as the country’s abrupt end to Covid Zero sparks outbreaks nationwide Japan’s government expects price gains including fresh food to be 1.7% in the fiscal year 2023, unchanged from its mid- year estimate, according to Cabinet Office forecasts released Thursday Kazakh financial firms have been buying Russian government debt at a steep discount from investors unable to exit the market because of sanctions and other restrictions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter Turkey’s central bank is poised to move past its cycle of interest-rate cuts at the final meeting of a year when inflation reached near a quarter-century high A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian stocks traded with gains across the board following the positive lead from Wall Street. ASX 200 saw gains across almost all of its sectors aside from Material names and gold miners. Nikkei 225 eked gains as Real Estate names led the charge, but with gains capped as the JPY held onto most of its recent strength. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were firmer with the former opening with gains north of 2% as property names cheered reports via state media that China is to push the construction of major projects and equipment upgrades. The mainland meanwhile coattailed on the broader modest risk appetite seen after the US performance. Top Asian News China reports zero new COVID deaths in the mainland on Dec 21st vs zero a day earlier, according to Reuters. China to cut quarantine for overseas travellers as of January, via Bloomberg. PBoC injected CNY 4bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.00%; injects CNY 153bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.15%; daily net injection CNY 155bln. Japanese government raises FY23 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% (from 1.1% in July); maintains FY23 Overall CPI forecast at 1.7%; cuts FY22 GDP growth forecast to 1.7% (from 2.0% in July), according to Reuters. Japanese PM Kishida said he wants Japanese industries to carry out investments of JPY 100tln as early as possible, according to Reuters. Tokyo will raise COVID-19 medical alert to the highest level, according to NHK. European bourses are under modest pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, in what has been a very contained session with benchmarks making limited ground either side of the unch. mark. Sectors, are similarly mixed/contained; though, Energy outperforms given benchmark pricing while Real Estate has once again succumbed to yield action. Stateside, futures are in-fitting with their European counterparts, ES -0.1%, with Micron -2.5% in the pre-market post-earnings. TikTok's latest proposal to the US government for a security deal includes an independent board to oversee its data security operations, according to Reuters sources. Top European News ECB's de Guindos says, "the steps we have taken so far are going to have an impact on inflation, but we still need to do more". Zelenskiy Wins Applause, Aid in Half-Day Dash Through Washington European Gas Falls Further Amid Mild Weather and Ample Supplies Oil Steadies as Traders Weigh China Demand Against US Stockpiles Europe’s Mild Christmas and New Year to Ease Power Grid Stress FX Aussie underpinned by base metals, but off best levels as broader risk sentiment wanes, AUD/USD peaks above 0.6750 and AUD/NZD near 1.0700 DXY still straddling 104.000, but within slightly lower range to the benefit of Euro, Yen and Franc; EUR/USD retests 1.0650, USD/JPY probes 132.00 and USD/CHF pivots 0.9250. Pound lags to circa. 1.2100 after sub-consensus UK Q3 GDP data. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9713 vs exp. 6.9702 (prev. 6.9650) Commodities WTI and Brent Feb’23 have managed to claw out incremental WTD peaks at USD 79.77/bbl and USD 83.66/bbl respectively, as the DXY continues to languish around and below 104.00, with the complex also benefitting from the limited macro updates re. COVID. Governor of Canada has determined the significant adverse effects of the Sukunka coal mine cannot be mitigated, and therefore the coal mine project cannot proceed, via Reuters. Brazil is to impose 14.88-14.93% countervailing duties on China's aluminium sheet products from March 31st 2023, according to the Chinese Commerce Ministry. Spot gold has been unable to benefit from the Dollar’s downside and remains towards the lower-end of tight USD 1813-1820/oz parameters while silver has slipped slightly to below the USD 24/oz mark. Despite the move in crude, base metals have been unable to benefit from the COVID update, with LME Copper modestly softer on the session. Geopolitical Russian State Nuclear Energy Corporation says discussions with the IAEA brought together views on the establishment of a buffer zone around Zaporizhzhia, according to Sky News Arabia. US Event Calendar 08:30: Dec. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 222,000, prior 211,000 Continuing Claims, est. 1.68m, prior 1.67m 08:30: 3Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9% Personal Consumption, est. 1.7%, prior 1.7% GDP Price Index, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3% PCE Core QoQ, est. 4.6%, prior 4.6% 10:00: Nov. Leading Index, est. -0.5%, prior -0.8% 11:00: Dec. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -6, prior -6 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap with his last Early Morning Reid note of 2022 This is the last EMR of 2022. Many thanks for all the interactions and support this year. As I mentioned yesterday in CoTD, we were very pleased with the Global II poll results last week and couldn’t have done it without your votes. So thanks. Many thanks also for the hundreds and hundreds of emails yesterday after my Xmas miracle story. It was very touching. If you missed it you can recap it here. No-one has asked for it but in the last EMR of the year I always list my favourite TV series/box sets of the last 12 months. If you want to see that skip to the end. I don’t have much free time with work and the kids but my wife and I try to carve out an hour each evening when I’m not travelling to watch a series. It’s a form of bonding that ensures we don’t run out of conversation too early in our marriage. It’s a tactic that has worked so far nearly 10 years on. So see if you agree or disagree with the choices at the end. As a final offering that you didn’t ask for, you may remember that on a flight to New York in early November the Wi-Fi didn’t work. Given I had nothing downloaded to do, I started writing a Xmas song for my family on my iPad. I surprised them with it last weekend and have posted the video online. If you want something to put you off all Christmases for the rest of your life please see the link on my Bloomberg header or search “It’s Xmas time at the Reids” online. It probably won’t make next year’s poll of best Xmas songs but could Mariah Carey do macro strategy? Well maybe she could. So one last time for 2023 and we end on a relative high note in what has been a tumultuous 2022 as for the first time in over a week, yesterday saw a very strong performance for financial markets as investors focused on more positive news from various economic data and earnings releases. That led to a major cross-asset rally, with gains across equities, bonds, credit and commodities, which marks something of a change from what we’ve been used to seeing across the rest of 2022. Indeed, the S&P 500 (+1.49%) put in its strongest performance so far this month. To be frank, there hasn’t been a great deal of newsflow for markets as things wind down for the Christmas holidays, but there was a strong round of US consumer confidence data from the Conference Board’s latest release. The main headline was that confidence rose to an 8-month high of 108.3 in December (vs. 101.0 expected), adding to hopes that the US economy might be able to achieve a softer landing than many (including us) fear. That included gains in both the present situation and the expectations component, with the latter hitting an 11-month high of 82.4. And there were even promising signals on the labour market, with the proportion of consumers saying that jobs were “plentiful” moving up, whilst the share saying they were “hard to get” fell back. Against that backdrop, equities put in a very strong performance on both sides of the Atlantic, with sizeable gains for all the major indices. Those were very broad-based, with every individual industry group in the S&P 500 rising on the day, as did 469 of the companies in the index. The largest gains were seen among megacap tech stocks, with the FANG+ index advancing +2.21% after a run of 5 consecutive declines. The stronger economic data in the US led to cyclicals outperforming with Energy (+1.89%) and Industrials (+1.85%) seeing large gains. And over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+1.23%) put in its best performance in over a month. Whilst equities made gains, sovereign bonds also managed to stabilise following the recent moves higher in yields, with those on 10yr Treasuries falling -2.0bps yesterday to 3.662%. They are another -1.5bps lower this morning in Asia. And in keeping with the pattern of recent days, yield curves continued to steepen, with the 2s10s up +2.0bps to -55.7bps, which is its steepest level in over a month. Meanwhile in Europe, the relentless sell-off in sovereign bonds over the last week also paused for breath yesterday. Yields on 10yr bunds did increase for a 6th successive day, but only by a small amount, just as those on OATs (+0.4bps) were almost unchanged and BTPs (-3.9bps) fell back. This follows the third worst week for European bonds this century as we showed in yesterday's CoTD. Elsewhere, some of the most important headlines yesterday came on the geopolitical front, as Ukrainian President Zelensky visited US President Biden in Washington, which marks his first trip outside of Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began in February. President Biden’s administration announced $1.85bn of additional military funding for Ukraine, including the first transfer of the Patriot Air Defence system. According to the US State Department, the US has spent $20bn of security assistance to Ukraine. President Zelensky also addressed Congress last night, pressing for further aid and additional sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile in Russia, there were no signs that the government was looking for an exit path from the conflict, with President Putin saying that there were “no limitations” on military spending for Ukraine. Asian equity markets are higher with the Hang Seng (+2.76%) leading gains helped by a boost in Chinese technology and property stocks as the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) yesterday pledged more support for the real estate industry as well as for the broader economy. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (+0.54%), the KOSPI (+0.75%), the CSI (+0.62%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.24%) are also higher. DM Stock futures are indicating a positive start with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.30%), the NASDAQ 100 (+0.34%) and the DAX (+0.24%) trading slightly higher. Early morning data showed that producer prices in South Korea rose +6.3% y/y in November, the slowest growth since April 2021 and fifth consecutive month decline. This follows a +7.3% increase in October. Elsewhere the Japanese yen stabilised yesterday, and saw a modest -0.55% decline against the US Dollar. That follows its +3.93% gain on Tuesday, which was the largest single-day gain since 1998. This morning it's back up +0.4%. 10yr JGBs are -7bps lower at 0.4% as BoJ buying dominates. In terms of economic data yesterday, US existing home sales fell to an annualised rate of 4.09m in November (vs. 4.20m expected). That’s their 10th consecutive monthly decline, and with the exception of May 2020 at the height of the pandemic, it’s also their lowest level since 2010. Otherwise, we got the latest CPI data for November in Canada, which came in at +6.8% (vs. +6.7% expected). Furthermore, if you exclude food and energy, inflation actually ticked up to +5.4%, having been at +5.3% the previous month. Finally in the UK, public sector borrowing (ex banks) came in at £22.0bn in November (vs. £14.8bn expected), the highest monthly number for November since records began in 1993. To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the third estimate of Q3 GDP, the weekly initial jobless claims, and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for December. Otherwise, we’ll also get decisions from a couple of G20 central banks, with those in Indonesia and Turkey deciding on rates. Happy holidays and here are my favorite TV series of the year… see you on the other side….. The Offer – A dramatised account of the making of the Godfather. I am not a devote of the films but the events around the making of it were fascinating, funny, scary and gripping. Please watch even if you’ve never seen the films just to see life in the early 1970s and the unbelievable obstacles to making one of the biggest movies of all time. Winning Time – The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty – Like with “The Offer” I’m not a basketball fan but this was again funny, fascinating and utterly mesmerising. Series one ends in 1980 and not being a basketball fan I’ve only a vague idea of what happens next so no spoilers as series 2 eventually takes the story on. Better Call Saul - The best prequel ever? Very sad to see the Saul/Jimmy story now complete. The White Lotus II – Maybe one of the better sequels. Much better than the first series that I could have taken or left. The Newsreader – A fascinating walk back in time to a 1980 Aussie newsroom and all the issues and prejudices the world had back then. Compelling stories and characters. SAS Rogue Heroes – The (mostly) true story of the setting up of the SAS. Very well done and astonishing stories and people. Stranger Things – Basically a kids story but one done very well both dramatically and visually. The Kate Bush soundtracked scene that helped her score her first number 1 for nearly 40 years was incredibly powerful. House of the Dragon – There was always a worry about how good or relevant a Game of Thrones prequel would be but I was pleasantly surprised. Borgen – After a decade away it was fascinating to see how the former (fictional) Statsminister of Denmark was progressing. Black Bird – A rarity in so far as this is a one-off complete story so no need to worry about cliff-hanger endings and a year’s wait for the next instalment. True story about a prisoner tapped up by the FBI to befriend a suspected serial killer to make him elicit a confession. Ozark – The final series didn’t quite hit the heights of previous ones but was still very good. The Crown – My wife and I raged against some of the deliberate inaccuracies but it was a fascinating journey back in time to stories of our younger days and always very well shot. Cobra Kai – Very lightweight but always masses of fun and with a very good heart. Karen Pirie – A Scottish detective who looks a bit like my wife! Not sure who is more dogged and determined. The Bear – Utter chaos as a tortured star chef inherits and takes over a rundown Chicago sandwich shop. Mayhem ensues. Honourable mentions. For all Mankind, Reacher, Bosch: Legacy, Only Murderer in the Building, Sherwood. Tyler Durden Thu, 12/22/2022 - 08:03.....»»

DeSantis announced several measures against the COVID-19 vaccine this week, right in Trump's Florida backyard. Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo and Gov. Ron DeSantis at a news conference in West Palm Beach, Florida, on January 6, 2022.Joe Cavaretta/South Florida Sun Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images DeSantis has asked for a grand jury to kick off a probe into life-saving COVID-19 shots. He used to promote the vaccines, but has become more skeptical over time.  The actions show a big contrast with Trump on pandemic policy.  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis intensified his attacks on the COVID-19 vaccines on Tuesday, in a move that positions the Republican governor to contrast his pandemic record with that of former President Donald Trump.Speaking from a studio in West Palm Beach, DeSantis held a 90-minute roundtable with COVID vaccine skeptics and asked the Florida Supreme Court to set up a statewide grand jury to investigate "crimes and wrongdoing" related to the COVID-19 shots, weaponizing life-saving vaccines ahead of a potential fight with not just Trump but President Joe Biden.Since 2020, DeSantis has made his pandemic policies a key political rallying cry. He bucked the advice of federal health officials to reopen schools and Florida businesses before most other states and banned both mask and vaccine mandates.Should DeSantis decide to enter the 2024 presidential contest, the pandemic is one area where the governor could accentuate the differences between himself and Trump, whose administration launched the COVID-19 vaccines in record time. While the governor hasn't directly criticized Trump or said whether he intends to pursue the presidency, DeSantis made his latest announcement geographically close to Mar-a-Lago, the oceanfront private club and estate where Trump lives in Palm Beach. DeSantis often holds major announcements at locations that carry subliminal messages. For instance, he has taken to publicly calling President Joe Biden "Brandon" in a nod to the anti-Biden chant "Let's Go, Brandon," and last year signed a bill in Brandon, Florida, when he banned workplace vaccine mandates. In contrast, Trump has been more forthright in attacking DeSantis. Soon after the election, Trump bashed DeSantis as disloyal to him because he'd endorsed the governor four years ago, helping him secure the GOP nomination.He has called DeSantis "DeSanctiminious" and said that governors who don't announce their vaccine status are "gutless." Many news outlets interpreted the comment as a dig against DeSantis, who hasn't shared whether he received a COVID-19 booster shot. It's not clear whether Trump will lean into his success on the COVID-19 vaccine through his Operation Warp Speed program. Dr. Paul Offit, a leading infectious disease expert at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, said Trump should "take bows" over the vaccines, calling it "the greatest scientific and medical advance in my lifetime."Republicans shouldn't "feel the need to distance themselves from it," he said, adding that he didn't understand why Trump didn't brag about it more. "What I've come up with is that he's a modest man who doesn't like to put his name on things," Offit joked of Trump, whose eponymous buildings decorate US city skylines. President Donald Trump reaches into his suit during a news conference where he prematurely declared victory in the election on November 4, 2020.Evan Vucci/APDeSantis leads Trump in a new poll Several signs show Operation Warp Speed could become a liability to Trump. For instance, Republicans have a lower uptake of the vaccine than Democrats, and Trump supporters have booed when he has encouraged them to get the vaccine. Meanwhile, DeSantis is seen as one of Trump's most formidable opponents in a hypothetical presidential matchup. In a USA Today-Suffolk University poll released Tuesday, DeSantis led Trump by 23 points among Republicans.But if the governor does run for president he'll need to contrast himself with Trump. News outlets, Democrats — and even many Republicans — frequently portray DeSantis as similar to Trump. Several GOP operatives see Trump's pandemic policies as a possible area from which to attack Trump on the right, Insider first reported in September."Pushing back and ensuring accountability on anything COVID-related is a win for DeSantis," GOP strategist John Thomas, who started a pro-DeSantis Super PAC, told Insider. "This issue also serves as a reminder to the American people that he made the right calls during COVID to fight back against lockdowns and vaccine mandates." The Biden administration often bashes Trump on his pandemic policy. But while president, Trump initially shut down the US and his administration released guidance in support of wearing masks.Steven Cheung, Trump's campaign spokesperson, told Insider that Trump's administration had "worked tirelessly" to secure medical equipment and that he allowed each state to determine what was best for its residents. He didn't say anything about DeSantis in his response, instead accusing Biden of failing "to continue the Trump administration's successes he inherited," noting that more people died from COVID-19 under Biden than under Trump. "Operation Warp Speed was a once-in-a-lifetime initiative that gave people the option of utilizing therapeutics if they wished to do so," he said.Other Trump supporters criticized DeSantis directly. Alex Bruesewitz, CEO of political consulting firm X Strategies, panned DeSantis' actions as "revisionist history." "Facts be damned, this is exactly what to expect from career politicians looking to climb the political ladder," he told Insider. "Ron DeSantis was Florida's biggest vaccine advocate when it was 'good' PR, and now, as he tries to position himself for his next campaign, he is reinventing reality and hoping no one will notice. Typical unabashed political opportunism, but MAGA voters won't be manipulated so easily."Then-President Donald Trump with then-Florida governor candidate Ron DeSantis at a July 2018 “Make America Great Again” rally in Tampa, Florida.REUTERS/Carlos BarriaDeSantis launched a new public health groupDeSantis did do events across Florida to encourage COVID vaccine uptake and prioritized older adults, though he later had vaccine skeptics appear at several events and offered health advice that clashed with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.For instance, the FDA and CDC have cleared the bivalent booster for those as young as 6 months of age depending on what COVID-19 vaccine a person has previously had. In contrast, Florida's health agency has recommended against healthy children getting the shots at all. Countries including Denmark and Sweden have similar guidance. DeSantis plans to go further during his second term after being sworn in on January 3. The governor said Tuesday that he plans to push the state legislature to pass a law to block hospitals from taking medical licenses from doctors who speak out on COVID-19 mitigation practices. He is tasking Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo with starting a surveillance program with the University of Florida to investigate sudden deaths in people that received the COVID shot, and having Ladapo lead a "Public Health Integrity Committee." The committee will issue guidance about COVID vaccines and other healthcare matters. Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine at Stanford University, is one of the committee members. Bhattacharya, who was attending the roundtable, has been in the news in the last few days after conservative journalist Bari Weiss revealed that Twitter diminished the visibility of his tweets because he opposed COVID lockdowns.DeSantis gave some indications about the grand jury investigation on Tuesday. He called out CDC guidance that initially and incorrectly said people could not become infected with the coronavirus if they were vaccinated, and accused the government of downplaying vaccine side effects such as myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle, in teens and young men."I think people want the truth and I think people want accountability," DeSantis said. "You need a thorough investigation about what happened."He accused the pharmaceutical industry of potentially misleading on the vaccine, and said a grand jury would have "legal processes that will be able to get more information and to bring legal accountability with those who committed misconduct." The DeSantis roundtable focused on Pfizer and Moderna's mRNA vaccines, and not the Johnson & Johnson vaccine which has shown in rare cases to be linked to an increase in blood clots. The scientists present at the roundtable repeatedly stressed that other, non-COVID vaccines should be considered safe. Moderna did not respond to Insider's questions about DeSantis' latest announcement. Sharon Castillo, a spokeswoman for Pfizer, defended the COVID-19 vaccines' efficacy in an email to Insider, saying they'd saved "hundreds of thousands of lives" and "enabled people worldwide to go about their lives more freely." The vaccines prevented more than 18 million hospitalizations and 3 million additional deaths, according to an estimate from the Commonwealth Fund.Numerous regulatory agencies had authorized the vaccine after "robust and independent evaluation of the scientific data on quality, safety, and efficacy," Castillo said, adding that real-world studies continue to show that the vaccines work to prevent severe illness. Offit, who has advised the CDC on vaccines, told Insider that he didn't think DeSantis understood the regulatory process, adding that companies submit all their data to the Food and Drug Administration when they apply for approval. The CDC then goes on to make recommendations for who should get the shot, and outcomes from vaccines get tracked in several places — which is how scientists now know about the myocarditis and blood clotting side effects in some people."I don't know what he's talking about," Offit said. "His whole thing is that the data are being hidden, that you need this supervisory system to have integrity. The system has integrity." Offit does, however, differ from the CDC in saying that, at this time, he does not see how the CDC data support encouraging young, healthy people to get another COVID-19 booster shot. Instead, boosters should go toward people at the highest risk of hospitalization, he said. DeSantis was asking a "fair question" about the booster for children, Offit said, but "when he makes false claims about safety he loses credibility."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

At least 17 Republicans have shown they're interested in the 2024 presidential nomination, even though Trump has already declared he's running. Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an event at Mar-a-Lago on November 15, 2022 in Palm Beach, Florida.Joe Raedle/Getty Images Donald Trump is the only Republican who has made a '24 run official. But many others have been floating the possibility of entering the GOP contest. From Pence to Haley, here's how Republicans are laying the groundwork for presidential runs. It's beginning to look a lot like 2016. Former President Donald Trump is the only Republican so far who has announced a 2024 presidential run, but numerous others are signaling that they're toying with the same idea. They're doing all the things they're supposed to do to test their chances: Visiting early primary states, writing books, showing up on the Sunday shows, campaigning with other Republicans ahead of the 2022 midterms, and weighing in publicly on President Joe Biden's policies — and even Trump's latest controversies. The next step will be hiring teams in Iowa and New Hampshire, Doug Heye, a longtime GOP aide and strategist, told Insider."You have got a stable of people who are essentially putting themselves all in the starting gates and all have their own timetable about when and if they decide to run," he said. December would be a "frustrating month" for political watchers because "no one is going to move that much," said Kristin Davison, vice president and general consultant at Axiom Strategies. But hopefuls would be floating what she called "trial balloons" — in which they publicly raise the prospect of a run to see how donors and the press will react. Whoever seizes the nomination will likely face Biden, though he has yet to formally declare his candidacy. But, Heye said, "it's a real possibility" that the GOP lineup will be large like it was in 2016.The stakes for losing the nomination aren't all bad, even if Republicans might come out of it with an unforgettable Trump nickname. After all, one of the people running for president could end up getting chosen as running mate or get a seat on the new president's Cabinet.And there are other perks to formally seeking the White House, such as raising one's profile and having a better shot at the presidency during a future cycle. Candidates could also wind up selling a lot more books or leave politics to get a prime TV or radio show. "It's a long, difficult process," Heye said, "and you're more likely to lose than not."Trump's legal, political, and personal liabilities have been piling up in the last month, leading many in the GOP to say the party needs not just a fresh face but to be led by a candidate who can actually win. Insider identified 17 people who could seek the Republican nomination in 2024, including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Tim Scott of South Carolina who are up for re-election this cycle and will therefore be in campaign mode anyway. Each will have to effectively answer the "why I'm running for president" question and find their lane in the party — which will inevitably include defining, or redefining, their relationship with Trump. "I don't think you can discount any of them at this point," Heye said. "It's too early to determine who outside of Trump is a frontrunner." Scroll through to see the lawmakers listed here in alphabetical order. Outgoing Rep. Liz Cheney of WyomingRep. Liz Cheney, a Republican of Wyoming, campaigned with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat of Michigan, at an Evening for Patriotism and Bipartisanship event on November 1, 2022 in East Lansing, Michigan.Bill Pugliano/Getty ImagesCheney, 56, is the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney and one of Trump's toughest Republican critics.She voted to impeach Trump after the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, and served as vice chair of the House select committee investigating Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.Cheney's actions have come at a cost under the heavy weight of Trump's ire. House Republicans punished her by stripping her of her leadership post, and she lost her US House seat to Trump-backed GOP challenger Harriet Hageman during the state's August primary.But she hasn't been deterred. Cheney said on NBC's "Today" that she would do "whatever it takes" to keep Trump out of the White House in 2024, including "thinking about" running for president herself. "I wouldn't be surprised to see her run for president," Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah told Insider in August. Cheney voted with Trump on policy when he was in office, and remains a conservative, telling the Reagan Foundation and Institute in June that she believes "deeply in the policies of limited government, of low taxes, of a strong national defense." But Cheney said she sees a breaking point with the Republican Party, telling the Texas Tribune Festival in September that she would leave the GOP if Trump became the 2024 nominee.This could mean she'd run for president as an Independent. Already, she has shown she's willing to campaign against Republicans who falsely deny that Biden won the 2020 presidential election.This year, Cheney converted her House campaign finance committee into an anti-election denier leadership PAC called The Great Task. The PAC spent $500,000 on a TV ad in Arizona that urged voters to reject Republicans Kari Lake and Mark Finchem, who were running for governor and secretary of state, respectively. During the 2022 midterms, Cheney endorsed incumbent Democratic Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia. Both won their races. "We had to make sure that we prevented election deniers from taking power," she told The Washington Post's Global Women's Summit in November. Many outsiders see long odds for Cheney, though a poll conducted in Utah found she could be a top contender there. Outgoing Rep. Adam Kinzinger of IllinoisRep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., speaks as the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol holds a hearing in Washington, DC, on July 21, 2022.AP Photo/J. Scott ApplewhiteLike Cheney, Kinzinger, 44, has spent much of the last year focused on the January 6 committee and drawing Trump's ire. He's the only other Republican on the House committee investigating the riot, and will be retiring from his seat at the end of this Congress, after six terms. Kinzinger told HuffPost in April that he "would love" to run against Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, but more for the fun of it than to actually win."Even if he crushed me, like in a primary, to be able to stand up and call out the garbage is just a necessary thing, regardless of who it is," he said. "I think it'd be fun."In a move that could be signaling he's planning on doing just that, Kinzinger in early 2021 launched his anti-election denier leadership PAC, called Country First. Kinzinger sponsored several bills that became law, including measures to prevent opioid addiction and a bill to help veterans with medic training transition to EMT work as civilians. Kinzinger served in the Air Force and remains a pilot in the Air National Guard. Sen. Ted Cruz of TexasSen. Ted Cruz, a Republican of Texas, speaks at a rally for Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker on November 10, 2022 in Canton, Georgia.Megan Varner/Getty ImagesCruz, 51, was the last Republican standing against Trump during the 2016 presidential nomination and had even announced that he'd pick former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina as his running mate. But Cruz — whom Trump nicknamed "Lyin' Ted" — lost following a nasty primary in which Trump levied highly personal attacks against the senator, including disparaging his wife's looks and falsely suggesting that Cruz's father had something to do with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Once Trump was in office, however, Cruz was one of the president's  biggest defenders. He voted to overturn the 2020 election results in Arizona and Pennsylvania and helped to secure Trump's acquittal in his second impeachment trial. In recent months, Cruz has been spending time in New Hampshire and campaigned with retired football star Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff. While in the Senate, Cruz led the successful effort to zero out the unpopular fine on the uninsured created by the Affordable Care Act.More recently, Cruz used Ketanji Brown Jackson's Supreme Court confirmation hearing to score points for a potential 2024 run, questioning her about school curriculum on race. Before coming to Congress, Cruz was solicitor general in Texas, a role that involves arguing cases before the Supreme Court. When Insider asked whether Trump's latest missteps had provided an opening for him to jump into the 2024 presidential race, Cruz chuckled a bit before laying out what sounded like a near-term agenda. "I think the Senate is the battleground … and I'm going to do everything I can to lead the fight right here," Cruz told Insider before launching into a tirade about his mounting frustration with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's decision making. He made no specific mention of 2024, but also didn't work in the word "no" anywhere.Cruz told the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas that he'll seek reelection in Texas in 2024 when his term is up, though state law allows him to run for both offices at the same time.Former Gov. Chris Christie of New JerseyFormer New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition Saturday, November 19, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoChristie, 60, is famously said to have missed his moment for the White House because he didn't run for president when he was getting a lot of attention as New Jersey's governor in 2012, and instead fizzled out in 2016 when faced with Trump and numerous other contenders. But that hasn't stopped him from weighing another go at it. As recently as October, during an appearance on "Real Time with Bill Maher," Christie confirmed that he was considering a 2024 run.  In the last 18 months, Christie has been prominently involved in midterm campaigning and on the same speech circuit as other GOP hopefuls, including the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. He also put out a book in 2021, titled "Republican Rescue: Saving the Party From Truth Deniers, Conspiracy Theorists, and the Dangerous Policies of Joe Biden." Christie served two terms as a Republican governor in a blue state where Democrats controlled the legislature. In that role, he expanded Medicaid under Obamacare and passed bail reform.But he got flak over a handshake with then-President Barack Obama during Hurricane Sandy relief efforts, and was hurt politically after members of his administration created traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge.Christie became a lobbyist in 2020, when he had several healthcare clients but cut ties a year later, according to the lobbying disclosure database, in what could be a sign that he's lining up for a run.   Today, Christie blames Trump for the GOP's losses the last three election cycles and spent months saying Republicans "have to be the party of tomorrow, not the party of yesterday" if they ever want to win another election. His tone on Trump is a stunning turnaround for a man who was one of Trump's closest outside advisors when he was in the White House and was even on the shortlist to be Trump's chief of staff. Christie turned on Trump after January 6, saying the president violated his oath of office. More recently, he told The New York Times that Trump's candidacy was "untenable" and that the former president had had "poor judgement" after he dined at Mar-a-Lago with white supremacist and Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes. He also told the Washington Examiner that Republicans "fail the leadership test" when they don't call out Trump. Gov. Ron DeSantis of FloridaRepublican gubernatorial candidate for Florida Ron DeSantis speaks during an election night watch party at the Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on November 8, 2022.Giorgio VIERA / AFP via Getty ImagesDeSantis, 44, has an enviable mantle for the presidency in the Florida governor's office — and he's making the most of it. He famously and unapologetically reopened Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic, before federal health officials said he should. He banned certain teachings on race in workplaces and schools, and flew unsuspecting migrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. DeSantis also signed a contentious parental involvement and sex ed bill into law that critics call "Don't Say Gay." Instead of backing down over the outcry, he punished Disney for threatening to repeal it.Then there were the historic tax cuts in Florida with promises of more as well as viral videos bashing what he calls the "corporate media." All of these actions have portrayed the governor as a fighter. That's not the only part of his public persona on display. Often in tow is his beautiful, young family. His former newscaster wife, Florida's first lady Casey DeSantis, has been instrumental in his rise. To the New York Post, pictures of the DeSantis family on Election Night was "DeFuture." Others see a conservative JFK. But the politician DeSantis most often gets compared to is Trump. Numerous news profiles have described DeSantis as "Trump without the baggage," or as a more disciplined Trump. Yet after leaning on Trump during his first gubernatorial victory in 2018, DeSantis showed he could win big on his own, scoring a historic, 20-point victory in Florida in November without Trump's endorsement.As for presidential clues, DeSantis is also out with his first memoir in February: "The Courage to Be Free: Florida's Blueprint for America's Revival." During the midterms, he extended goodwill to other Republicans by campaigning with them. Back at home, he raked in a record amount of cash for a gubernatorial race. If the GOP primary were decided today, numerous polls show, DeSantis is the only person that gets close to Trump. DeSantis, a former conservative House member, has not pledged to serve out all four years of his second term. All of that has angered Trump. He has called DeSantis "Ron DeSanctimonious" and threatened to release damaging information about the governor. DeSantis has refused to punch back at Trump publicly, instead blaming the media and saying, "When you're leading, when you're getting things done, you take incoming fire."South Dakota Gov. Kristi NoemSouth Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, Texas, on July 11, 2021.Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesNoem, 51, has been on a Trump-related roller coaster ride as of late. In January 2021, the embattled former president tried to get her to primary fellow South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a lawmaker Trump took to calling a RINO (which stands for "Republican in name only") after Thune balked at his baseless claims of election fraud. Noem bowed out of joining Trump's revenge campaign, opting to focus on her own re-election plans. Once 2022 rolled around, she leaned hard into the GOP culture wars, promising voters that she'd bar transgender athletes from participating in women's sports, stamp out any "critical race theory" instruction in local schools, and decimate any "radical political ideologies" that annoyed her evangelical Christian base.Come July, Noem told CNN she'd be "shocked" if Trump tapped her to be his 2024 running mate. But she didn't rule out sliding into the VP slot — or mounting a challenge of her own. Since winning a second term in November, Noem has started taking on bigger foes, including the People's Republic of China. —Kristi Noem (@KristiNoem) November 30, 2022 Her state government-wide ban against the use of social media app TikTok scored her fawning interviews on conservative outlets including Fox News and Newsmax, beaming her into the homes of potential admirers who don't happen to reside in the Mount Rushmore State. Noem seems far less enthusiastic about Trump these days, telling reporters that the twice-impeached, scandal-plagued former president isn't Republicans' "best chance" at retaking the White House in 2024. She issued this prediction just days after Trump announced he was running again.  Former UN Ambassador Nikki HaleyFormer UN Ambassador Nikki Haley during a news conference in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday, October 26, 2022.Matt Rourke/AP PhotoHaley, 50, has made it clear she's interested in the presidency. At the Republican Jewish Coalition in November, she told the crowd she was thinking about a presidential run "in a serious way" and would announce a decision "soon.""I've won tough primaries and tough general elections," she said. "I've been the underdog every single time. When people underestimate me, it's always fun. But I've never lost an election. And I'm not going to start now." The remarks were a turnaround from Haley's comments last year, when she said she wouldn't run for president if Trump were to seek the White House in 2024. Haley said at a Turning Point USA event that she'd take the winter holidays to make a decision. Early in her career, Haley joined her family's clothing business before leading the National Association of Women Business Owners.She served in the South Carolina House for three terms then was the state's governor for six years. In that time Haley delivered the GOP response to Obama's 2016 State of the Union Address.She pushed for the removal of the confederate flag from the South Carolina capitol after a gunman killed nine Black people at Emanuel Church in Charleston. Also as governor, Haley would not support a bill requiring transgender people to use the restroom that corresponded with the gender on their birth certificate. But in 2021 she wrote a commentary in the National Review saying transgender inclusion in sports was an "attack on women's rights."Haley was UN Ambassador under Trump for two years, and successfully pushed for the US to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem and defended Trump's decision to do so.In 2019 she published a memoir, "With All Due Respect: Defending America with Grit and Grace." Her experiences give her the coveted pairing of having both executive and foreign policy chops, which are often viewed as crucial to the presidency. Aside from Trump and Pence, few other contenders would have such a profile. As a woman of Indian descent, she could also help bring in suburban women voters who graduated from college and expand the GOP coalition among people of color. Her nonprofit group, called Stand for America, Inc., is seen as a campaign in waiting and raised about $8.6 million in 2021, according to Politico. And she founded the Stand for America PAC after her time in the Trump administration. Haley campaigned and fundraised in high-profile races during the 2022 midterms, including in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Haley told the National Republican Committee the day after the January 6 riot that Trump was "badly wrong" in his speech to supporters and that his "actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history." Sen. Josh Hawley of MissouriSenator Josh Hawley (R-MO) speaks during the confirmation hearing for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson on March 22, 2022.JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)Hawley, 42, has reached for the spotlight whenever possible while Congress is in session.From famously saluting the January 6 protestors on the day of the violent siege at the Capitol to holding Brown Jackson's feet to the fire as she raced to join the Supreme Court, the first-term lawmaker works to portray himself as the perennial outsider who's only here to shake things up. He's played up the part by voting to overturn the 2020 election results on behalf of MAGA vote-magnet Trump, butting heads with McConnell on the way the upper chamber is run, and blaming short-sighted leaders for running the party into the ground. "When your 'agenda' is cave to Big Pharma on insulin, cave to Schumer on gun control & Green New Deal ('infrastructure'), and tease changes to Social Security and Medicare, you lose," Hawley, bemoaned on Twitter following a demoralizing midterms performance by flawed GOP candidates, which he blamed on "Washington Republicanism." The potential 2024 contender followed up with some suggestions, floating an alternative vision he said would help "unrig the system."   "What are Republicans actually going to do for working people? How about, to start: tougher tariffs on China, reshore American jobs, open up American energy full throttle, 100k new cops on the street," Hawley, who was also Missouri's former attorney general, tossed out on his social media feed. Asked by Insider about his intentions of formally jumping into the 2024 presidential race, Hawley laughed out loud for a few seconds. "I hope to run for reelection to the Senate in 2024. If the people of Missouri will have me," he said. Nowhere in there did Hawley say "no." Outgoing Gov. Larry Hogan of MarylandGov. Larry Hogan of Maryland.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesEven before the bruising 2022 midterms, Hogan, 66, was warning that Republicans couldn't continue down the path they are on. "I am not about to give up on the Republican party or America," he wrote on Twitter in early December. "None of us can. It's too important."The two-term governor who beat a 2015 cancer scare has been fired up about plotting his next act. Hogan, a centrist Republican, is already making the rounds in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. A nonprofit group aligned with him reported raising $2 million in 2021, some of which was spent on "supporter acquisition" and "audience building." And Hogan recently scored some face time with GOP mega donors at this year's Republican Jewish Coalition leadership meeting — mentioning to political reporters covering the event that he and other potential 2024 hopefuls were there because "maybe there's a little blood in the water." Trump was notably absent at the event, but did video-conference in. As governor, Hogan signed a gun control bill into law and has said that while he opposed abortion, he wouldn't move to gut the state's guarantee on reproductive rights. During the COVID-19 pandemic he instituted a statewide mask mandate, then lifted restrictions in May 2021. While he has yet to formally declare a 2024 run, Hogan has begun billing himself as a "commonsense conservative" who GOP voters sick of losing may want to consider."I think there are 10 people who want to be the next Donald Trump, and I think there may be a different lane," Hogan said while stumping in Manchester, New Hampshire, adding, "I'm going to do everything I can to get the country back on track." He cast a write-in vote for Reagan in the 2020 election and called for Trump to be impeached or resign after January 6. Outgoing Gov. Asa Hutchinson of ArkansasArkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson attends the National Governors Association summer meeting, Friday, July 15, 2022, in Portland, Maine.Robert F. Bukaty/AP PhotoHutchinson, 72, hasn't been shy about criticizing Biden or Trump. After Trump's 2024 announcement, he said the former president's "self-indulging message promoting anger has not changed," and also disavowed the Fuentes and Ye meeting at Mar-a-Lago.Hutchinson has taken at least five trips to Iowa through America Strong & Free, the nonprofit of which he's the honorary chairman and spokesperson."I am seriously looking at a run in 2024 because America and the Republican Party are not in the best place," he said in a statement provided to Insider. "I know how to get us back on track both in terms of leadership and facing the challenging issues of border security, increased violent crime and energy inflation." He'll make a decision in January, he told KARK.As governor for the last eight years, he has pushed to make the state a leader in computer science, and signed several tax cuts into law, including lowering the state income tax rate from 7% to 4.9%. Hutchinson also signed bills into law blocking businesses from requiring customers and workers to show proof of COVID-19 vaccinations, and blocked state and local officials from obligating masks — a move he later said he regretted. He asked state lawmakers to create a carve-out for schools, but the Arkansas House rejected the proposal. While he signed an abortion ban into law in 2019 that took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, he said on CNN that he personally believes in exceptions for rape and incest."Many out there appreciate a 'consistent conservative,' even one they don't agree with all the time," Hutchinson told Insider. "I am not interested in the 'outrage of the day,' and I am committed to using my consistent conservative principles to guide me and our nation on important policy decisions." Hutchinson began his government career as a US attorney for the Western District of Arkansas under President Ronald Reagan, then went on to serve in the US House for three terms. President George W. Bush tapped him to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration, after which he served as undersecretary in the Department of Homeland Security. He has criticized Biden on illegal immigration, inflation, student loan forgiveness, and said on CNN that the president's September speech about democracy "singled out a segment of Americans and said basically they're our enemy."Hutchinson also has the distinction of being especially press friendly at a time when numerous Republicans have copied Trump's style of lashing out against journalists. "The media plays an important role in our democracy," Hutchinson told Insider. "I've never shied away from tough questions, and I have always been willing to defend my positions and conservative principles with the hard questions coming from the press."Former Vice President Mike PenceFormer Vice President Mike Pence speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition on Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPence, 63, has begun to distance himself from his former boss, while also promoting his new book, "So Help Me God." He told ABC's "World News Tonight" that Trump "decided to be part of the problem" by not immediately calling off the insurrectionists during the January 6 riot, after he declined to help invalidate Biden's lawful win. Pence also pushed back against Trump on WVOC in South Carolina after he called for terminating the Constitution, and came out forcefully after Trump had dinner with Fuentes."President Trump was wrong to give a white nationalist, an anti-Semite, and a Holocaust denier a seat at the table," he said on November 28. An adviser to the former vice president told Insider that, should Pence decide to run, the team has discussed several policy areas to differentiate himself, including Trump's bipartisan criminal justice reform bill, the First Step Act, and that he'll continue to be "very outspoken on the issue of life."In contrast, Trump didn't mention his three Supreme Court picks when he announced his 2024 presidential run, even though they helped overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that previously guaranteed a national right to abortion. Pence wouldn't have to worry about name ID during a presidential run. Still, his new book and a campaign would allow him to reintroduce himself to voters by talking about his work in the US House and then as governor of Indiana. He already has made numerous trips to early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina. Further, he'll be able to amplify policies that carried his fingerprints during the Trump administration, including his oversight of the US's pandemic response.Pence was a sought-after midterm surrogate, traveling to dozens of states. In May, he went to Georgia to help incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp beat Trump-backed primary challenger David Perdue.Pence's vision for the future of the party is laid out in his Freedom Agenda and Advancing American Freedom, the nonprofit aligned with him that serves as a type of campaign in waiting. The policies include reducing mail-in voting and implementing universal school choice, which allows public education funds to pay for K-12 students to select alternatives to public schools. While Pence didn't testify before the January 6 select committee, his senior aides including former chief of staff Marc Short and legal advisor J. Michael Luttig walked investigators through some of the scenarios that led up to the attack. In November, Pence said on Fox's "Hannity" that he would make a 2024 decision after discussing it with his family during the holidays. Former Secretary of State Mike PompeoFormer Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPompeo, 58, told Chicago donors in September that he already had teams in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.His outside campaign in waiting is called Champion American Values Fund, and Pompeo has been doing press appearances to talk about his forthcoming book, "Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love." Pompeo represented Kansas in the US Congress and was also former CIA director under Trump. After the end of the administration, he lost weight, which sparked speculation that he was interested in a White House run. Similar to Haley, Pompeo would enter the contest with a foreign policy background. He has openly criticized Biden, including after the president's September speech on protecting democracy. "He essentially said if you're pro-life or you're opposed to a certain set of policies, you're a threat," Pompeo told the New England Council's "Politics and Eggs" breakfast.  Biden, he said at the event, could be summed up as having "woke ideas, weak resolve, and waffling leadership."Trump should not have taken classified documents to Mar-a-Lago, he said, but added that the "raid on Mar-a-Lago was indecent and improper." Pompeo told conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt in November that Trump's announcement wouldn't affect whether he decides to run for president, adding that he'd make a determination in the spring. "We need more seriousness, less noise, and leaders who are looking forward," Pompeo said, "not staring in the rearview mirror claiming victimhood." Sen. Marco Rubio of FloridaWilfredo Lee/AP PhotoRubio, 51, has come out hot after cruising to a third term in November, castigating GOP leaders for totally blowing the midterms. "We have a historically unpopular Dem President, record inflation, a violent crime wave & total chaos at the border & not only did we fail to win a majority, we lost a seat. And the Senate GOP response is going to be to make no changes?" Rubio fumed in a December 7 Twitter post. His anger hadn't abated when Insider caught up with him at the US Capitol. "I don't know how you come back from what we have just encountered and conclude that the status quo and business as usual is how we want to proceed," Rubio said of the need for drastic changes within the GOP. While conceding that he doesn't have "all those answers," Rubio suggested that Senate Republicans take a hard look at "the mechanics of elections, policy, the legislative agenda, and all of that." "I think that's something we should all be involved in talking about," Rubio said of the sorely needed soul searching. Rubio, who is of Cuban descent, was speaker of the Florida House before heading to Washington. He has sponsored numerous bills that have become law, including doubling the child tax credit and co-authoring the Paycheck Protection Program that helped keep small businesses afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.On top of that, he's got a powerful perch as the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee. Political operatives have credited him with helping the GOP grow its influence with Hispanic voters, NBC News reported. Asked by Insider whether he had it in him to take another run at the former president after getting clobbered by the insult-flinging Trump in 2016, Rubio said he just really needs to take a breath. "We'll have time over the holidays and into the new year to sort of focus on everything going on in my life and here in the Senate," Rubio told Insider, adding that he hasn't "really focused in on" returning to the presidential proving grounds at the moment. Perhaps voters will learn more about future plans in his forthcoming book, "Decades of Decadence." Sen. Tim Scott of South CarolinaSen. Tim Scott, a Republican of South Carolkina, speaks at a fundraiser in Anderson, South Carolina on August 22, 2022.Meg Kinnard/AP Photo, FileScott, 57, hinted at a presidential bid during his midterms victory speech, even though he previously said he wouldn't run against Trump. "My grandfather voted for the first man of color to be elected as president of the United States," he said on November 8, referring to the vote his grandfather cast for Obama. "I wish he had lived long enough to see perhaps another man of color elected president of the United States. But this time, let it be a Republican and not just a Democrat. So just know: All things are possible in America."Scott, who previously served in the US House, is the only Black Republican in the Senate. He said his six-year term in the Senate beginning in January will be his last, but he hasn't ruled out a presidential run and is making all the right moves to position himself for the undertaking. Despite his own election, he has taken several trips to Iowa and spent time campaigning on behalf of other Republicans. He also released a memoir, "America, a Redemption Story: Choosing Hope, Creating Unity" and is one of the top fundraisers in the Senate — which includes support from small and online donors — even though he defended a safe seat this cycle.Major donors have contributed to Opportunity Matters Fun, a pro-Scott super PAC.Scott was among those leading the push for the successful passage of the bipartisan First Step Act and his measure to create Opportunity Zones that bring private investments into economically distressed communities was part of the 2017 tax reform law. He garnered national interest after delivering the GOP response to Biden's address to Congress in April. Afterward, McConnell said the senator represented "the future of the Republican Party." Scott has been open about the racism he has faced over the course of his life. "I get called Uncle Tom and the n-word by progressives, by liberals," he said in response to Biden's address. He has shared that police have pulled him over numerous times, despite him not violating any traffic laws. He sat down with Trump at the White House to discuss systemic racism and publicly called on Trump to call back certain statements he made on race. Haley, who was South Carolina governor at the time, appointed Scott to the Senate in 2013 after the seat opened up. Miami Mayor Francis SuarezTaylor Hill / Contributor Getty ImagesSuarez, 45, confirmed in October that he's considering a presidential run."It's something that I would consider given the right circumstances and given the right mood of the country," Suarez said at a Punchbowl News event. Miami has been getting a lot of attention given the surge of people moving to Florida — and tech companies and crypto startups in particular headed to Miami under Suarez's encouragement. He even told Twitter CEO Elon Musk that he should consider relocating the company's headquarters from San Francisco.Suarez's office sent over a list of accomplishments for the mayor, saying the city was No. 1 in job and wage growth, and had 1.4% unemployment. The Financial Times called Miami "the most important city in America." The mayor made historic increases to the city's police department, increased funding on climate-resistant infrastructure, and passed a rental tax credit for seniors. Suarez didn't vote for Trump during the 2020 election and in the 2018 gubernatorial race in Florida he voted for Democrat Andrew Gillum over DeSantis. But Suarez said Trump also has been kind to him. The two spoke at a wedding recently, he said, and Trump told him he was the "hottest politician in America after him.""I don't know if he meant physically hot or if he meant I was getting a lot of buzz," Suarez said. "But he was very nice." Suarez is of Cuban descent and leads the National Conference of Mayors. When asked about how he might stand out in a presidential race, Suarez said he might be able to speak to "a variety of minority communities that are going to be important if Republicans want to grow their base for a generation." Gov. Chris Sununu of New HampshireGov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire.Jon Cherry/Getty Images for ConcordiaSununu, 48, was just reelected to a fourth term in New Hampshire, where governors are reelected every two years and there are no term limits. "I haven't ruled anything in or out," he told Politico's "Playbook Deep Dive" podcast when asked about running for president in 2024. "I haven't ruled out a fifth term. I haven't ruled out running for higher office."Sununu is a centrist Republican who has the distinction of being in favor of abortion rights, at a time when many states are banning abortion. He came close to running for the US Senate in 2022, but told the Washington Examiner that other senators told him their main job was to be a "roadblock" in office — and he wasn't interested in that.Sununu also called Trump "fucking crazy" at the Gridiron dinner, a journalism event. "Let's stop supporting crazy, unelectable candidates in our primaries and start getting behind winners that can close the deal in November," Sununu said in November at Republican Jewish Coalition meeting.He told the Washington Examiner after the midterms that there should be new GOP leadership — not just in the White House but inside the Republican National Committee."Did they achieve on the level of results that we all thought we were going to get?" he asked. "No. So, why would we stick with the same team assuming we're going to get a better result?"Sununu is part of a political dynasty. His father was governor of New Hampshire who then went on to work in the George H.W. Bush administration as chief of staff. His brother was in the US House and US Senate. Gov. Glenn Youngkin of VirginiaGov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia.AP Photo/Steve Helber, FileYoungkin, 56, tried his hand at playing kingmaker in over a dozen 2022 gubernatorial contests and mostly came up short. The newly-minted Republican who rocketed to stardom in late 2021 by keeping Virginia purplish with his electrifying win over Democratic fixture Terry McAuliffe tried to work that same Trump-light magic into contests all around the country. The result: only four of the 15 Republican gubernatorial candidates Youngkin got involved with won their races. It's unclear whether Youngkin had any effect on the reelection bids of blowout winners like Kemp or Noem.By the same token, it's debatable whether he could have dragged Lake, Michigan's Tudor Dixon, or any of the other 2020 election deniers across the finish line given their full-on embrace of Trumpism. While he remains reluctant to badmouth the embattled former president, Youngkin clinched his 2021 win by keeping Trump at bay while still reaching out to the MAGA base. Trump, on the other hand, has tried to take full credit for Youngkin's win and lashed out at the newcomer for not being more appreciative. Trump's already working on trying to clip a Youngkin presidential bid from ever taking wing, panning him and DeSantis as ingrates who have no chance of beating him. Trump also reverted to his old tricks after the politically damaging 2022 midterms flop, hitting Youngkin with a bizarre, racist rant on Truth Social. Given that Virginia only allows governors to serve non-consecutive terms, it makes sense for Youngkin to seek opportunities elsewhere.The Washington Post reported that Youngkin spent part of his summer huddling with Republican mega donors in New York. And while he remains mum on any official plans for 2024, Politico said Youngkin's putting in place the types of fundraising groups a presidential candidate would want to have at the ready.Youngkin is a former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group. As governor, his first official action was to sign an executive order prohibiting Virginia schools from teaching "critical race theory." More recently, he's been pushing to reimburse individuals and businesses who paid fines for violating state COVID-19 restrictions under his Democratic predecessor.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Putin relies on a vast network of elites he can co-opt or dupe into supporting his corrupt and authoritarian regime waging a brutal war in Ukraine. Nikolai Patrushev; Roman Abramovich; Vladimir Putin; Xi Jinping; Elon MuskLintao Zhang, Pool/Associated Press; Sang Tan/Associated Press; Kay Nietfeld/picture alliance/Getty Images; Alex Brandon/Associated Press; Evan Agostini/Invision/Associated Press Vladimir Putin maintains a cadre of supporters despite his growing global isolation. Russian oligarchs, world leaders, and American pundits have all enabled Putin's war in Ukraine. Here are some of the key figures that have helped empower Putin. Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked attack on Ukraine in February, but the invasion was the culmination of two decades in power that have been enabled by world leaders, billionaire oligarchs, and other powerful figures.Putin, a Soviet KGB officer-turned-politician, has effectively stayed in power for over two decades. He served his first two terms as Russia's president from 2000-2008, and was elected president again in 2012. He also served as the Russian prime minister from 1999-2000 and 2008-2012.In his latest term as president, Putin drastically escalated conflict with Ukraine, including with the 2014 annexation of Crimea by force, a move deemed by most of the world to be illegal and illegitimate. His time in power has also been marred by reports of murdered dissidents, a steady rotting of democracy in Russia, and interference in foreign elections, including in the US.Still, influential figures have continued to support Putin, either through direct support, like partnerships or reliance on Russian energy products, or indirectly, by uncritically echoing his talking points or allowing him to proceed relatively unchecked. Here are some of the key figures who have enabled Putin's power.Dmitry MedvedevRussian President Vladimir Putin and then-Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev attend a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow, Russia, Thursday, Feb. 23, 2017.Ivan Sekretarev/Associated PressFormer Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has been in lockstep with Putin — his presidential predecessor and successor — over the country's war efforts since the February invasion.Medvedev, a close Putin ally who's leveled genocidal threats against Ukraine, was elected president in 2008, following the latter's first two terms. Russia's constitution at the time limited Putin to two consecutive terms, but he managed to maintain power in Medvedev's administration, serving as prime minister from 2008 to 2012.When Putin reclaimed the presidency in 2012 in an election marred by allegations of fraud, Medvedev took his place as prime minister, a position he held until 2020 when he stepped down to ease Putin's efforts to overhaul Russia's constitution.Putin also appointed him deputy chair of the Security Council of Russia, a position he still holds today.Medvedev has provided increasingly aggressive support for Putin's Ukraine invasion, issuing several bellicose statements about the conflict, as well as Russia's nuclear arsenal. In June, Medvedev threatened to strike "targets in the West" after the US agreed to provide Ukraine with advanced rocket systems and later expressed a desire to "disappear" all of Moscow's enemies.In September, he reiterated Putin's thinly veiled nuclear threats, emphasizing that Putin's warning was "definitely not a bluff, and earlier this month, framed Russia's ongoing, unprovoked war as a sacred conflict with "Satan."Sergei ShoiguRussian President Vladimir Putin (L) accompanied by Sergei Shoigu gestures as he fishes in the remote Tuva region in southern Siberia, on August 3, 2017.Alexey Nikolsky/SPutnik/AFP via Getty ImagesA loyal and longtime friend to Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was once considered a possible successor to the Russian presidency. But as the official responsible for Russia's war in Ukraine, Shoigu has become a lightning rod for criticism amid the oft-failing war effort. Shoigu has marked a steady ascent through Russia's elite, utilizing his close relationships with powerful people, including Russia's first president, Boris Yeltsin, and then Putin himself. Shoigu and Putin's friendship appeared to go beyond politics: The two often vacationed together in the Siberian woods where they would go fishing and hikingDespite having never actually served in the military, Shoigu has executed Putin's defense aspirations for years, spearheading the invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 and contributing to Russia's intervention in Syria the following year. The West sanctioned Shoigu just one day after Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. But months of mounting Russian military failures have sparked rumors of a rift between Putin and Shoigu. Even so, Shoigu has remained silent, despite his apparent role as Putin's scapegoat. "Shoigu is willing to basically be Putin's bulletproof vest," Mark Galeotti, who heads the Russia-focused consultancy Mayak Intelligence, told Insider's Sophia Ankel.Nikolai PatrushevRussian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and Russia's President Vladimir Putin during a meeting with the Secretary-General of the Japanese National Security Council.Mikhail MetzelbackslashTASS via Getty ImagesNikolai Patrushev, who serves as secretary of Russia's Security Council, is another longtime Putin ally and one of the exceedingly few people in power known to have the president's trust. Patrushev and Putin are old KGB comrades whose relationship dates back to 1998, and is regarded as one of the most powerful siloviki, as the close aides who advocate force are known. Galeotti told The Washington Post in July that Patrushev has long been the "devil on Putin's shoulder whispering poison into his ear." Since the war began, Patrushev has undertaken several foreign trips on behalf of Russia's war effort, speaking for Putin on a variety of topics as the 70-year-old president grew increasingly reclusive. "His ideas form the foundations of decisions taken by Putin," Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder of the Russian political consultancy R.Politik, told The Post of Patrushev. "He is one of the few figures Putin listens to." Since the invasion, Patrushev has emerged as a dependable frontman and frequent public promoter of Russia's war. His prominence on the global stage has prompted questions about his personal aims and whether or not he may be seeking Putin's power for himself.The Kremlin has brushed off suggestions that the security secretary has amassed new powers, but some intelligence experts see Patrushev as Putin's likely replacement should the president fall ill. The Russian OligarchsIn this Nov. 10, 2017, file photo, Russia's President Vladimir Putin, left, and Oleg Deripaska, right, attend the APEC Business Advisory Council dialogue in Danang, Vietnam.Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, FileDozens of Russian oligarchs were among the first to be hit with Western sanctions in the immediate aftermath of the invasion over their close ties to President Putin.Many of these ultra-rich, Russian businessmen helped fuel Putin's meteoric rise to power and helped keep him there.Several of the "original" oligarchs amassed their power during the "perestroika" reforms to Russia's economy and political system in the late 1980s. After the fall of the Soviet Union, these men bought up industrial companies being sold off by the state, padding their pockets and increasing their influence.When Putin took the presidency in 2000, he vowed to crack down on corruption in the government, exiling certain oligarchs. But men who remained friendly to Putin — and who vowed to stay out of politics — were able to grow even richer, leaving Putin to his political machinations without much of a check. A new wave of Russian security elites emerged in the 1990s. These quasi-military elites would come to be known as silovarchs — a combination of the word oligarch and siloviki, a reference to the Russian military. Hugo Crosthwaite, a lead analyst at security intelligence firm Dragonfly, told Insider's Sam Tabahriti that the siloviki are much more a part of Putin's close circle and partial to his regime."Siloviki are ultimately closer to the president than oligarchs are," he said. But some of these siloviki and Oligarchs wield more "Putin power" than others. Roman AbramovichRoman Abramovich no longer owns Chelsea FC.Clive Mason/Getty ImagesRoman Abramovich has emerged as one of Russia's most recognizable oligarchs thanks to his previous ownership of Chelsea Football Club, a top-flight London soccer team which he oversaw for nearly two decades.In recent months, Abramovich has found himself in the spotlight after he was sanctioned by the European Union and the UK following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As Western officials were seizing his many assets, including his massive yacht, Abramovich was acting as an unofficial envoy in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in the spring. Though not an official member of the negotiations team, Abramovich's access to such conversations offer insight into what is believed to be his close relationship with Putin. European officials say Abramovich has "privileged access" to the Russian president and has maintained close ties with Putin for decades, Insider's Grace Dean and James Dean reported in April.Abramovich himself has repeatedly denied any financial links to Putin or a close relationship with the president. But Western officials say the oligarch and his businesses have received "preferential treatment and concessions" from Putin, including tax breaks and grants.The Times of London reported that Abramovich met with Putin in March and handed the president a handwritten note from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeking peace, which Putin promptly dismissed.Gennady TimchenkoRussian tycoon Gennady Timchenko, left, attends a meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, with French businessmen in the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, May 25, 2016.Sergei Karpukhin/Pool Photo via APTimchenko, a billionaire trader and businessman who faced US sanctions ahead of Russia's invasion, is another notable oligarch with close ties to Putin. The sixth richest man in Russia, Timchenko was the wealthiest oligarch to face US sanctions earlier this year. The two men have been friends since the early 1990s, according to The Guardian, when Putin, a rising political star at the time, gifted Timchenko an oil export license to aid the St. Petersburg oil trader. Timchenko emerged as a co-founder of Gunvor Group, a Swiss-based trading house that exports billions of dollars of Russian oil. Both the company and Putin have rejected allegations that the Russian president was a "sleeper" beneficiary of Gunvor's activities, profiting off oil exports, The Guardian reported. But the US in 2014 sanctioned Timchenko along with other members of the "Russian leadership's inner circle," alleging that Timchenko's energy sector activities had direct links to Putin. Timchenko said he had sold his stake in Gunvor the day before he was sanctioned by the US in 2014 over the annexation of Crimea. Timchenko remains the founder and owner of the private investment firm Volga Group which is a major shareholder in Russia's massive natural gas producer Novatek.Chinese leader Xi JinpingRussian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese leader Xi Jinping pose for a photograph during their meeting in Beijing, on February 4, 2022.Photo by ALEXEI DRUZHININ/Sputnik/AFP via Getty ImagesChina and Russia are not formal allies, but ties between the two countries, particularly related to trade and defense, have expanded over the past decade. The two countries consider each other strategic partners, and said in February their relationship has "no limits."In early February, as concern mounted over the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine, Chinese officials asked Russian officials to wait until after the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, according to Western intelligence officials.The intelligence report indicated that Chinese officials had some level of prior knowledge about the planned invasion, although it wasn't clear if Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Putin had communicated directly. But the request to delay may have emboldened Putin to actually go through with it, Simon Miles, an assistant professor at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy and a historian of the Soviet Union and US-Soviet relations, told Insider.Following the invasion, as Western countries issued crippling sanctions against Russia, China continued to purchase Russian oil and gas, serving as a lifeline for the Kremlin to continue with the war efforts. China, which is the largest purchaser of Russian oil, has even quietly increased its purchases since the war began.Xi has also refrained from condemning the invasion, though in September Putin acknowledged the Chinese leader had concerns about the war. But when the United Nations Security Council voted to condemn Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territories as illegal, China abstained.Indian Prime Minister Narendra ModiIndian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in May, 2018.Getty ImagesLike China, India has also maintained its relationship with Russia throughout the war, continuing to buy energy products. India also drastically increased its purchases of Russian oil in the spring at highly discounted rates, essentially helping to fund the war efforts in Ukraine.India has refrained from condemning Russia's invasion, and the two countries have referred to their relationship as a "special and privileged strategic partnership."Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did criticize the war in September during a face-to-face meeting with Putin. "Today's era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this," Modi said. Putin acknowledged Modi's concerns and said he too wanted the war to end as soon as possible.However, fear of losing the support of China and India may have actually encouraged Putin to escalate the war, in hopes of ending it sooner. And when the United Nations Security Council voted to condemn Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territories, India also abstained.Belarusian President Alexander LukashenkoRussian President Vladimir Putin (R) greets Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (L) during the welcoming ceremony in Saint Petersburg, Russia, December,20,2019.Photo by Mikhail Svetlov/Getty ImagesBelarus, along with its authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has been Putin's most important ally on the world stage. The country, located north of Ukraine, is Russia's only ally in Europe.Belarus has deep ties to Russia and the two remained close even after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. The countries are connected by a number of political, economic, and defense deals, including the Union State, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a military alliance of post-Soviet states that Putin has propped up as NATO's counterpart.Lukashenko, who has been referred to as Europe's last dictator, and Putin have a close relationship, with Belarus supporting Russia in the war effort. Belarus served as a staging ground for Russian troops prior to the invasion and has since been used by Russia to launch ballistic missiles into Ukraine. Hospitals in Belarus near the Ukrainian border have also taken in wounded Russian soldiers.Lukashenko, who's known for outlandish claims including that vodka protects against COVID-19, at one point even seemed to spill Russia's war plans for Ukraine.Gerhard SchröderGerman Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, right, Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, and French President Jacques Chirac at a joint press conference in Svetlogorsk, Kaliningrad, July 3, 2005.JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty ImagesFormer German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder has forged deep ties with Russia and Putin.While in office, Schröder, who served as chancellor from 1998 to 2005, supported building the first undersea gas pipeline that would directly deliver Russian natural gas to Germany. Three weeks after leaving office, Schröder became head of the board of shareholders for Nord Stream, the company behind the pipeline, despite concerns about a conflict of interest or wrongdoing.He has since made nearly $1 million a year from energy companies controlled by the Kremlin, The New York Times reported. Schröder has been one of Germany's most prominent proponents of importing Russian energy to fuel the country's industrial economy.As Germany was forced to confront it's reliance on Russia's oil and gas in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, some placed blame on Schröder, who critics say has promoted Russian energy at the expense of Germany's long-term interests.Schröder was also criticized in August after having a private meeting with Putin during a trip to Moscow. He told German media he had nothing to apologize for and said the West should properly acknowledge Russia's "real fears of being hemmed in" by antagonistic countries, The Guardian reported. He also recommended Ukraine remain neutral and that both sides needed to compromise. Schröder is now being investigated by Germany's Social Democrats, the party he has been a part of since 1963, over his ties to Russia and Putin.Olga SkabeyevaRussia-1 host Olga Skabeyeva has played a key role in the Kremlin's propaganda strategy amid the war in Ukraine.YouTube/UATV EnglishOlga Skabeyeva has emerged as perhaps the most passionate and prominent Russian TV propagandist among a sea of TV propagandists who have been pushing the Kremlin's talking points since the war began.Nicknamed the "propagandist-in-chief" and the "iron doll of Putin TV," Skabeyeva has been a dependable, frequent face in Putin's war effort, delivering intense, often-fabricated rants on the government-owned TV channel Russia-1 about Russia's military struggles, Western leaders, and the Ukrainian army.Skabeyeva has built her career over the last 15 years of the Putin regime serving as a mouthpiece for the administration, experts told Insider's Michelle Mark earlier this year. She hosts the political talk show "60 Minutes" on Russia-1 alongside her husband Yevgeny Popov, offering polarizing and divisive — though almost certainly Putin-approved — analysis and propaganda. In April she sparked international outcry after she said on television that Russia was in the middle of World War III, marking a notable shift in the Kremlin's acceptable rhetoric regarding Ukraine.Sarah Oates, a professor and senior scholar at the University of Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism previously told Insider that Skabeyeva's inflammatory words were no accident, as Russian TV presenters often receive their talking points directly from the government.Vasily Gatov, a Russian media researcher and visiting fellow at the USC Annenberg Center on Communication Leadership and Policy, compared her to Fox News host Tucker Carlson, and called her a "monster" in an April interview.Elon MuskElon Musk.Michael Gonzalez/Getty ImagesTesla and SpaceX billionaire Elon Musk in recent months has pushed Kremlin talking points to his 118 million followers on Twitter, the site he now owns.On October 3, Musk tweeted a poll suggesting a Ukraine-Russia peace plan that included holding elections in four Ukrainian territories Russia claimed to have annexed in a move that was widely decried as illegitimate and illegal. The plan also suggested Crimea, which Russia has illegally occupied since 2014, be acknowledged as part of Russia, that Ukraine remain neutral, and a water supply to Crimea be guaranteed.Musk's peace plan was so favorable to Russia and specific to water rights in southern Ukraine that one leading Russia analyst, Fiona Hill, said it had the Kremlin's fingerprints on it, though Musk has denied speaking to Putin.Musk's tweet sparked harsh criticism from Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, who suggested the billionaire was supporting Putin. But Musk has continued to chime in about the war, including in a tweet emphasizing the importance of Crimea to Russian national security, another point pushed by the Kremlin.Donald TrumpUS President Donald Trump (L) and Russia's President Vladimir Putin shake hands before attending a joint press conference after a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, on July 16, 2018.YURI KADOBNOV/AFP via Getty ImagesFormer President Donald Trump has often bragged about his close relationship with Putin and frequently downplayed the national security threat posted by Russia, ignoring warnings from US intelligence agencies.In 2014, after Putin invaded Crimea, Trump praised the Russian president in a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference and said the rest of Ukraine would fall "fairly quickly." He later claimed the people of Crimea would rather be with Russia.When US intelligence agencies concluded Russia had interfered in the 2016 election through an online disinformation and propaganda campaign intended to help Trump and hurt Hillary Clinton, Trump doubted them, accepting Putin's denials. He later acknowledged the meddling, but has frequently dismissed it or contradicted US intel.In 2019, Trump's first impeachment was over an accusation that he withheld aid to Ukraine, which was still in ongoing conflict with Russia, in order to find dirt on Biden, his political opponent.And since the war began, Trump has continued to push Kremlin talking points and praise Putin. When Russia invaded in February, Trump lauded Putin's justification for invading as "genius" and "savvy." In October, Trump appeared to take blame for the invasion away from Putin and place it on US leadership — exactly where the Russian president says it belongs. "They actually taunted him, if you really look at it, our country and our so-called leadership taunted Putin," Trump told right-wing network Real America's Voice. "I would listen, I would say, you know, they're almost forcing him to go in with what they're saying. The rhetoric was so dumb."Trump also pushed a Ukraine-Russia peace deal after Putin threatened the use of nuclear weapons, playing into Putin's plans in a way that some experts described as "dangerous."Tucker CarlsonThe Fox News host Tucker Carlson on December 7, 2021.Fox NewsFox News host Tucker Carlson has frequently repeated Putin's talking points by sharing them on "Tucker Carlson Tonight," one of cable news' most-watched shows. Just before Russia invaded Ukraine, Carlson devoted a 15-minute segment to talking about how the US should not care about the looming conflict between the two countries.He claimed concern over the conflict was not about protecting Ukraine but because Democrats "want you to hate Putin" and that NATO doesn't want Russia to exist. He also said NATO's "one and only goal is to hold back the development of Russia," echoing claims made by Putin.He's also repeatedly attacked the country of Ukraine, whose citizens have mounted a society-wide response and begun to regain territory seized by the Russian invaders who have left mass graves in their wake.Following the invasion, Carlson acknowledged Putin and Russia were to blame but continued to spread their messages to his massive audience. In March a leaked memo showed the Kremlin even instructing Russian state media to play clips from Carlson's show "as much as possible," Mother Jones reported.At various points Carlson has defended Putin, downplayed the threat posed by Russia, repeated unsubstantiated and unlikely claims pushed by the Kremlin that the US was behind the Nord Stream pipelines sabotage, and falsely said the US is only providing aid to Ukraine as "payback for the 2016 election."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Republicans Will Sweep Both House And Senate: Stifel By Brian Gardner, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist, author of Potomac Perspective A host of factors clearly signal a Republican takeover of the House.  Although the battle for the Senate is closer, Republican candidates in key races have momentum and the GOP is well positioned to win the majority in the Senate.  The baseline case is a Republican sweep.  This note takes a final pre-election look at what to expect the election outcome(s) could mean for policy and markets. The fundamentals of the midterm elections have favored Republicans.  History points to significant Republican gains.  Numerous polls suggest that voters are prioritizing issues that Republicans are running on, such as inflation, crime, and immigration while issues that might suggest a positive environment for Democrats, such as health care and abortion, are ranked as lower priorities by most voters.  Also, polling might be underestimating Republican strength.  New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn recently acknowledged a problem with “nonresponse bias” that occurs when some voters refuse to respond to a pollster’s call. The Times has found that white registered Democrats were 28 percent more likely to respond to the Times’ Senate polls than were Republicans.  According to the Times, this disparity exceeds the nonresponse bias from their pre-election polling in 2020.  Because of a political environment that favors Republicans, historical trends, and the potential underestimation of Republican performance in polls, it seems likely that Republicans will sweep both the House and Senate. House What’s at stake? All 435 seats are being contested.  Republicans need a net gain of six seats to win the majority.  A president’s party historically loses 27 seats on average in a midterm election during the president’s first term, so history plus polling data suggest that Republicans are well positioned to win control of the House.  The Real Clear Politics average for the generic congressional ballot has Republicans leading Democrats by three points.  Of note, in a recent generic poll conducted by CBS, Republicans held a 16-point lead among independent voters and 79 percent of independent voters rated the economy as bad (31 percent said the economy was “fairly” bad while 48 percent said it was “very” bad).  Based on polling trends and ratings by independent political analysts, such as the Cook Political Report, a Republican gain of 15 to 25 seats seems likely – with higher gains possible (Note: Democrats lost 13 House seats in the 2020 election which is unusual for the party of an incoming president; this could cap Republican gains). Senate What’s at stake? Thirty-five seats are being contested (21 seats currently held by Republicans and 14 seats currently held by Democrats).  Republicans need a net gain of one seat to take control of the Senate while Democrats can retain the majority if they maintain the current 50-50 split. The following is a list of the eight key races and our forecast followed by a list of potential surprise races. Republican Targets: Arizona – Sen. Mark Kelly v. Blake Masters.  RCP average (as of November 3): Kelly +2.0.  Forecast: D hold. Georgia – Sen. Raphael Warnock v. Hershel Walker. RCP average: Walker +0.5. Note: If the winner in GA does not win a majority, the state holds a runoff of the top two candidates in December. Forecast: R gain. Nevada – Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto v. Adam Laxalt. RCP average: Laxalt +1.9. Forecast: R gain New Hampshire – Sen. Maggie Hasson v. Don Bolduc. RCP average: Bolduc +0.3.  Forecast: R gain. Democratic Targets: North Carolina – Rep. Ted Budd v. Cheri Beasley.  RCP average: Budd +5.0. Forecast: R hold. Ohio – J.D. Vance v. Rep. Tim Ryan.  RCP average: Vance +3.3.  Forecast: R hold. Pennsylvania – Dr. Mehmet Oz. v. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman.  RCP average: Oz + 0.3.  Forecast: R hold. Wisconsin – Sen. Ron Johnson v. Mandela Barnes.  RCP average: Johnson +3.2.  Forecast: R hold. Possible Senate Surprises If Republicans outperform expectations, they could surprise and also gain Senate seats in Colorado, Connecticut, and/or Washington state.  Some polls suggest a close race in Washington despite the state being reliably Democratic. In Iowa, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) is seeking his eighth term.  A Seltzer/Des Moines Register poll last month indicated a closer than expected race.  While Grassley is still favored, there could be a surprise here if voters opt for a generational change.  Lastly, in Alaska, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) is favored to win reelection, but the state uses ranked choice voting whereby voters rank their choices and if the lead candidate fails to win a majority then the last place candidate’s votes are redistributed to the remaining candidates based on voter preferences until a winner achieves a majority of the vote. A field that includes a candidate backed by former President Donald Trump could complicate Murkowski’s chances. Our forecast: Republicans gain three Senate seats. What it Means A Republican win in either the House or Senate would lead to legislative gridlock, which equity markets have historically welcomed.  Markets would, generally, react positively to the removal of the risk of higher tax rates as well as a lower growth rate in federal government spending.  Although equity markets could react positively to a Republican victory, there are political risks as the risk of government shutdowns rises.  Also, political drama related to future debt ceiling standoffs could increase market volatility and, if a situation similar to the standoff in 2011 is repeated, there could be a risk-off trade as a result.  In a recession, divided government would limit the chances of any type of fiscal response which would, in turn, complicate the Federal Reserve’s task of balancing its dual mandate [ZH: something we said back in January] How long until the market realizes that after the midterms, the only stimulus until (at least) Nov 2024 will be monetary pic.twitter.com/c89mILMHEj — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 23, 2022 If Republicans win, energy and defense could be the biggest sector winners. In the case of defense, though, investors should not be overly exuberant about increases in defense spending levels as Democrats will continue to have leverage on Capitol Hill and could resist Republican efforts to significantly increase defense spending. A Republican win could also boost chances of passing cryptocurrency legislation since it is a priority for Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) who would presumably chair the House Financial Services Committee if Republicans win the House.  Cryptocurrency is one of the few issues on which Congress could act in 2023-2024 since the issue tends to cut across party lines and is not impacted by partisanship in the same way other issues are affected.  Social media and technology would probably see little impact from a change in control in Congress as these sectors have critics in both parties.  However, the recent change in control at Twitter could slow efforts to revise Section 230 of the Communications Decency act as Republicans assess what the change in ownership means. A Republican win in the Senate could slow the Biden administration’s regulatory policy but probably not as much as some investors think.  The theory is that a Republican Senate can block nominations to regulatory posts.  However, key federal agencies are already under Democratic leadership and will remain so.  In cases where a future vacancy occurs, the Biden administration can bypass the Senate and appoint “acting” agency heads, a tactic used during the Trump administration. If expectations are wrong and Democrats retain control of the House and Senate, markets might selloff.  However, there is still likely to be a level of gridlock as the Senate majority would likely remain tightly split and Democrats have shown how difficult it is to pass the Biden agenda through a 50-50 Senate.  In reality, Democrats would need to gain 2-3 Senate seats in order to pass legislation. It is also worth noting that there is little new on the party’s agenda.  If Democrats win, most of their agenda would be to return to unfinished business from 2021-2022. Tyler Durden Sun, 11/06/2022 - 10:30.....»»

Moore, who served in the Army's 82nd Airborne Division in Afghanistan, told Insider that patriotism and service aren't proprietary to any one group. Maryland Democratic gubernatorial nominee Wes Moore.Bryan Dozier/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images Maryland gubernatorial nominee Wes Moore is seeking to reshape how patriotism and service are discussed in the public arena. Moore, a Democrat, told Insider he won't cede the definition of patriotism to any one group or movement. The former nonprofit executive has proposed a service-year option for high school graduates. FREDERICK, Maryland — In the banquet hall of Asbury United Methodist Church, one of the oldest Black churches in the historic city roughly an hour's drive west of Baltimore, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Wes Moore last week began his message to the party faithful with a focus on service.Moore — who served as a captain and paratrooper in the 82nd Airborne Division of the US Army and was deployed to Afghanistan from 2005 to 2006 — told attendees it's imperative that all Marylanders benefit from progress in the state, a driving tenet of his campaign."There was something that they taught us on our first day of military training, whether you were Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, Coast Guard ... It was simple. Leave no one behind, ever," Moore told the crowd. "If you get one of my people, I will send a battalion to go get them if I have to. We leave no one behind."As Moore spoke alongside his lieutenant governor running mate, former state Del. Aruna Miller, he connected this theme to fighting child poverty and reducing disparities in health care, reaffirming that their potential administration would be one shaped by tackling some of the most enduring issues affecting citizens of the state.Across much of the country, Democratic candidates have campaigned against the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, while also touting the impact of President Joe Biden's bipartisan infrastructure bill in their respective states and emphasizing the need to safeguard free and fair elections in the United States.But Moore has crafted a deeply personal campaign pitch, with the first-time political candidate speaking forcefully about patriotism in a way that can appeal to voters across the ideological spectrum while also refusing to cede ground to the GOP on the issue — especially in the wake of the January 6, 2021, riot at the US Capitol. As we rode on the campaign bus from Frederick County, a new swing area, to Hagerstown, a city in Republican-leaning Western Maryland, Moore noticed a property featuring both an American flag and a flag touting the "Make America Great Again" movement personified by former President Donald Trump."Here you've got a guy with an American flag and a Trump flag, and for so many people in our society, they think those two things are synonymous with each other. Right?" Moore, 44, told Insider. "That's what we're pushing back against right there. The idea that somehow we've allowed this MAGA movement to control this idea of patriotism and try to define what it means to be a patriot and what it means to defend your country.""And I'm like, and I'm sorry, you mean the people who tried to destroy it?" he continued. "They're the patriots? The ones who are claiming that they are the defenders of freedom?"Over the course of the general election campaign, Moore — a Valley Forge Military College and Johns Hopkins-educated Rhodes Scholar who wrote the best-selling 2010 book "The Other Wes Moore" — has tied his commitment to service with policies that he said would improve the lives of Marylanders.Moore's opponent, GOP state Del. Dan Cox, is a Trump-backed conservative who represents parts of Frederick County and chartered three buses to Washington, DC, to attend the "Stop the Steal" rally on January 6; he tweeted that day that then-Vice President Mike Pence was a "traitor." Cox later denounced the violence that occurred at the Capitol and said he did not march to the building, and also apologized for his comment about Pence.Both men are running to succeed two-term Gov. Larry Hogan, an anti-Trump Republican who won in both 2014 and 2018 by positioning himself as a consensus builder who could provide political balance in the solidly Democratic state. Hogan, who is eyeing a potential 2024 presidential campaign, has declined to endorse Cox's gubernatorial bid.Moore, who would be Maryland's first Black governor if he is elected next month, believes it is critical for the next leader of the state to articulate that no one political party or movement holds a monopoly over service to the country."We are going to have to address some very real generational challenges — economic, educational, housing," he told Insider. "But I also believe one of the prerequisites of the next chief executive is we've got to step up and put to rest this idea that a fringe group has taken claim and grabbed a hold of the mantra of patriotism of a country.""I refuse to let anybody try to wrestle that away," Moore continued, "or claim that they have a higher stake or some higher claim to it than I or my family or people who I served with or my community members."Moore helps at a food distribution center at the Ruth M. Kirk Recreation and Learning Center in Baltimore, Md., on September 16, 2022.Win McNamee/Getty Images'We have to fix this rupture of divisiveness'After winning a competitive multi-candidate Democratic primary that featured Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot and former Labor Secretary Tom Perez, Moore honed in on his message of patriotism, proposing a year of service that could afford critical job training and mentorship opportunities for Maryland high school graduates. He has envisioned the service-year option as something that could potentially be funded in partnership with federal, state, and local government entities.Moore, the former chief executive of the Robin Hood Foundation, an anti-poverty nonprofit organization, said "those who serve together will generally stay together," alluding to the stark divides that have come to define many aspects of modern American culture."I'm a big believer that part of government's job is to find what works, to make sure that it's supported, and then to scale it out," he said. "We have to fix this rupture of divisiveness and this vitriol that we have in our society. Why not actually address both of those two things at the same time?""Give them an opportunity to be able to be part of something bigger than themselves. And the reason that I know that it worked is it's exactly what I saw in the military," Moore added. "We all had very different backgrounds. But when you gave us a collective bond, it's amazing how that changed the perception and oftentimes many prejudices that we had walking into the situation."For Moore, traveling to western Maryland is a reflection of how he'd need to govern if elected, by listening to residents in places where Democratic candidates don't always perform well.During the ride, Moore delved into a state-level child tax credit program that he hopes to implement that will be similar to the one that lapsed at the federal level last December; it's a policy proposal that could potentially attract some Republican support.A September poll cosponsored by Goucher College, WYPR public radio, and The Baltimore Banner found that Moore led Cox by 22 points (53%-31%) among likely voters.And in the latest Washington Post-University of Maryland survey, Moore held a commanding 60%-28% lead among registered voters, attracting the support of 86% of Democrats and 22% of Republicans — a reversal from 2018 when it was Hogan who was garnering sizable crossover support.Mileah Kromer, an associate professor of political science and the director of the Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics at Goucher College, told Insider that Moore's conversations about patriotism and service have been "an incredibly effective message for him.""If you look back at 2018, Hogan was so successful because he was able to attract a broad cross-section of voters that included the full support from his base, but also a ton of Democrats and robust support from independents," she said. "Wes Moore's campaign in so many ways is so different from the last Democratic nominee, who really focused on the progressive wing of the party. And he has talked about patriotism and his military service in a way that has helped him get the attention of independents, older voters, and more conservative Democrats who may have voted for Hogan in the last two cycles.""From a political standpoint, it has also insulated Wes Moore against Dan Cox trying to say he's some sort of far-left socialist. None of those attacks have stuck in any significant way because that's not who he is," Kromer added.Moore emphasized that, if elected, he would put together a government that resembled the state."I want all Marylanders to be able to look at the administration that we're going to build, from Cabinet secretaries, agency heads, and everything to look up and say, 'I see myself around the table,'" he said. "I mean that."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Fung, former mayor of Cranston, is in a showdown with Rhode Island's general treasurer Seth Magaziner. Steven Senne/AP Photo; David Goldman/AP Photo; Insider Democrat Seth Magaziner is running against Republican Allan Fung in Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District.  Rhode Island's 2nd District is located in the western region of the state.  Fung holds a narrow lead over Magaziner, according to recent polling.  Democrat Seth Magaziner faces off against Republican Allan Fung in Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District.Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District candidatesMagaziner, who has been serving as the state's general treasurer since 2015, originally announced his candidacy for governor of Rhode Island before withdrawing from the gubernatorial election to run for Congress. Six candidates ran in the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Jim Langevin, who is retiring after 11 terms. Magaziner, who was endorsed by Langevin and the state party, handily defeated his opponents in the primary election, bringing in over half of the vote. Prior to running for Congress, Magaziner chaired Rhode Island's school building task force, leading a statewide school construction initiative that created jobs and repaired over 200 schools. His campaign website notes he helped pass the Reproductive Privacy Act in 2019 that codified the abortion protections of Roe v. Wade into state law. Fung, Magaziner's challenger, is the former mayor of Cranston and a self-identified "moderate Republican."Before running for Congress, Fung served as a criminal prosecutor in the Narcotics and Organized Crime Unit of the state attorney general's office before moving to the private sector where he became the governmental affairs counsel for a life insurance company. In 2008, he was elected as mayor of Cranston, becoming Rhode Island's first Asian-American mayor. Fung ran unopposed in the Republican primary. According to a recent WPRI-TV and Roger Williams University poll, Fung leads Magaziner, 46% to 40%. Voting history for Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional DistrictRhode Island's 2nd Congressional District is located in the western region of the state and includes Providence, the capital and most populous city in the state, and New Shoreham, located in Block Island, south of mainland Rhode Island. President Joe Biden had a 13 percentage point margin of victory over President Donald Trump under the district's previous boundaries in 2020 — before it underwent a redrawing process that kept district lines nearly the same in redistricting following the 2020 Census. The partisan lean — Democratic — remained unchanged. The money raceAccording to OpenSecrets, Magaziner has raised $2.9 million, spent $2 million, and has $880,790 on hand, as of September 30. His opponent, Fung, has raised $1.6 million, spent $952,053, and has $665,886 cash on hand, as of September 30.As of mid-October, super PACs, national party committee, and other non-candidate groups have together spent about $4 million advocating for or against the candidates. Pro-Fung Republican super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund accounts for about half of that spending.What experts sayThe race between Magaziner and Fung is rated as "lean Democratic" by Inside Elections, a "toss-up" by The Cook Political Report, and a "toss-up" by Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Fetterman, who suffered from a stroke in May, has come under attack by his Republican opponent Mehmet Oz over his health. Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate John Fetterman holds a rally at Nether Providence Elementary School on October 15, 2022.Mark Makela/Getty Images John Fetterman's doctor said he "is recovering well from his stroke," in an updated medica report. The Oz campaign had been urging Fetterman to release new medical records. Fetterman suffered from a stroke in May. Pennsylvania Senate Democratic candidate John Fetterman "is recovering well from his stroke and his health has continued to improve," his doctor said in an updated medical report the campaign released on Wednesday.Fetterman met with his primary care physician on Friday, who said in the letter that his physical exam, lung exam, heart rate and strength were each "normal" and "regular."Fetterman, who suffered from a stroke in May, has come under attack by his Republican opponent Mehmet Oz in recent weeks over his health. The Oz campaign has questioned Fetterman's ability to serve in light of his stroke and repeatedly insisted he provide an update on his health since his last medical report released in June.On Tuesday, the Oz campaign sent a letter signed by 15 physicians in Pennsylvania, urging Fetterman to release his medical records and "provide Pennsylvanians with the transparency they are owed." Last month, Oz released his own medical report after an annual checkup, in which his doctor stated he was in "excellent health." Fetterman has fended off the criticisms, maintaining that he's in good shape to serve in the Senate, a note his doctor echoed in the letter. "Overall, Lt. Governor Fetterman is well and shows strong commitment to maintaining good fitness and health practices," primary care physician Clifford Chen said. "He has no work restrictions and can work full duty in public office."Fetterman's campaign said in a statement that the report was "crushing news for Oz, who has been rooting against John's recovery and staked his entire campaign on it."Fetterman said on Twitter that he's "doing great" and remains "fully ready to serve."An Oz campaign spokesperson said in a statement to Insider that it's "good news that John Fetterman's doctor gave him a clean bill of health," but the "bad news is that John Fetterman still supports releasing convicted murderers out on the streets and has zero explanation for why he didn't pay his taxes 67 times.""And now that he apparently is healthy, he can debate for 90 minutes, start taking live questions from voters and reporters, and do a second debate now too," spokesperson Brittany Yanick said. Election Day is less than three weeks away. Oz has recently been closing in on Fetterman's lead, according to polls. The rivals are set to face off publicly for the first time on the debate stage on Tuesday in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. During the debate, Fetterman will rely on closed captioning, which he has been using in other public appearances and interviews to aid his recovery. Fetterman's doctor said while the lieutenant governor "continues to exhibit symptoms of an auditory processing disorder" he "spoke intelligently without cognitive deficits" in his check-up."Occasional words he will 'miss' which seems like he doesn't hear the word but it is actually not processed properly," the doctor said. "His hearing of sound such as music is not affected. His communication is significantly improved compared to his first visit assisted by speech therapy which he has attended on a regular basis since the stroke."An Insider/Morning Consult poll last month found that a majority of Americans support proposals that would require physical and mental examinations before top federal leaders are allowed to serve.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»