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KSCP Stock IPO: When Does Knightscope Go Public? What Is the KSCP Stock IPO Price Range?

InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips Today, there's some news around the upcoming KSCP stock IPO that has many investors scrambling to see if this is the IPO for them. The post KSCP Stock IPO: When Does Knightscope Go Public? What Is the KSCP Stock IPO Price Range? appeared first on InvestorPlace. More From InvestorPlace Stock Prodigy Who Found NIO at $2… Says Buy THIS Now Man Who Called Black Monday: “Prepare Now.” #1 EV Stock Still Flying Under the Radar Interested in Crypto? Read This First........»»

Category: topSource: investorplaceJan 14th, 2022

Goldman Partners To Be Rewarded With Millions In One-Time Bonuses

Goldman Partners To Be Rewarded With Millions In One-Time Bonuses With JPMorgan stock sliding after Wall Street freaked out over the bank's forecast of sharply higher compensation, here comes Goldman with today's "hold my beer" moment. According to Bloomberg, in an attempt to preempt defections of some of its top producers, Goldman is set to reward the "top 1%" at the bank with a special one-time bonus in addition to annual bonuses, in recognition of the bank's "roaring success" through the pandemic, a pandemic which we have said from the very beginning has successfully made the ultra rich even richer.  The unusual payments to partners - the ~400 bankers who fill out the investment bank’s highest rung - will add millions of dollars to many compensation packages, according to Bloomberg sources. The one-time payment is in addition to the larger regular bonus payouts that range from a few million dollars to multiples of that after a year of record earnings. Goldman’s management, under pressure to fend off increasingly aggressive poaching on Wall Street (from other banks which paradoxically are also complaining about higher pay), views the extra boosts as a creative solution that will come with a warning: Recipients shouldn’t mistake the bumps as part of a new pay floor, according to Bloomberg which notes that when compensation is set next year, managers will ignore the one-time payouts when making comparisons. Of course, if 2022 proves to be another extremely volatile year - and it most likely will be thanks to the upcoming Fed rate hikes and balance sheet drawdown - Goldman is looking at another blockbuster year for sales and trading (and/or another bailout)... and most likely another "one-time" bonus payment. Goldman's unprecedented remuneration comes as bosses across Wall Street are "sweetening" payouts this year after showing restraint in the first half of a two-year trading and dealmaking boom unleashed by the pandemic. At the end of 2020, they were wary of appearing extravagant amid Covid-19 outbreaks and uncertain the boom will last and amid public outcry over pay. But now, seemingly unconcerned about higher pay in a time of surging wages for everyone, they are feeling the pressure to open up their wallets to keep top producers happy and prevent them from jumping ship. Perhaps the biggest irony of this aggressive boost to compensation is that it comes just days after Goldman's economists wrote that there is "little sign of a wage-price spiral" a report that was so silly, we didn't even bother covering it on this website. Maybe Goldman meant for everyone else, except for Goldman. Tyler Durden Fri, 01/14/2022 - 16:40.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJan 14th, 2022

4 Stocks to Watch From the Prospering Business-Software Services Industry

The Zacks Business-Software Services industry players like CTSH, MSCI, TYL and PLUS are poised to benefit from the robust demand trend for multi-cloud-enabled software solutions. The Zacks Business-Software Services industry is benefiting from heightened demand for digital transformation and the ongoing shift to the cloud. Growing automation business processes across multiple industries and rapidly increasing enterprise data volumes are also driving demand for business software and services. Industry participants like Cognizant Technology Solutions CTSH, MSCI MSCI, Tyler Technologies TYL, and ePlus PLUS are gaining from these trends.Though the pandemic-induced chaos is expected to hurt in the near term, the health crisis has opened up new channels of growth for business software services providers. The industry participants have witnessed solid demand for software-as-a-service (SaaS) amid the pandemic-triggered surging need for remote working, online learning, and diagnosis software. SaaS offers a flexible and cost-effective delivery method of applications. It also cuts down on the deployment time compared to legacy systems. Moreover, SaaS attempts to deliver applications to any user, anywhere, anytime, and on any device.Industry DescriptionThe Zacks Business-Software Services industry primarily comprises companies that deliver application-specific software products and services. The applications are typically either license-based or cloud-based. The offerings generally include applications related to finance, sales & marketing, human resource, and supply chain, among others. The industry includes a broad range of companies offering a wide range of products and services including business processing and consulting, application development, testing and maintenance, office productivity suits, systems integration, infrastructure services, and network security applications. Some of the companies provide investment-decision support tools. Manufacturing, retail, banking, insurance, telecommunication, healthcare, and public sectors are the primary end markets for industry participants.4 Trends Shaping the Future of the Business-Software Services IndustryTransition to Cloud-Creating Opportunities: Companies in this industry have been gaining from the robust demand for multi-cloud-enabled software solutions, given the ongoing transition from legacy platforms to modern cloud-based infrastructure. These industry players are incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) in their applications to make the same more dynamic and result-oriented. Most industry players are now offering cloud-based versions of their solutions in addition to the on-premise ones, thereby expanding content accessibility. The enhanced interoperability features provide customers with differentiation and efficiency.Subscription Model Gaining Traction: The industry participants are modifying their business models to cope with clients’ shifting requirements. Subscription and term-license-based revenue pricing models have become highly popular and are now replacing the legacy upfront payment prototype. Subscription-based business models provide increased revenue visibility and higher recurring revenues, which bode well for companies over the long haul. However, due to this transition, the top-line growth of these companies might be affected in the days to come, as term-license revenues include advance payments, whereas subscription-based revenues are a bit delayed.Continuous M&A to Expand Product Offerings: The players in this industry are resorting to frequent mergers and acquisitions to supply complementary and end-to-end software products. Nonetheless, increasing investments in digital offerings and acquisitions might erode the industry’s profitability in the upcoming period.Evolving COVID-19 Situation Might Hurt Tech Spending: According to the latest report from Gartner, enterprises are likely to spend more on technology as they realize that sound technological infrastructure is the key to positive business outcomes. Therefore, the independent research firm estimates worldwide IT spending to increase 5.5% year over year and reach $4.5 trillion in 2022. However, with the emergence of the more contagious coronavirus variants — Delta and Omicron —several parts of the world are grappling with a massive spike in infection rates, leading to stringent lockdowns. This could affect IT spending across small- and medium-sized businesses, globally, as organizations may push back their investments in big and expensive technology products due to the global economic slowdown concerns. The uncertainty in business visibility could dent the industry’s performance in the near term.Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Bright ProspectsThe Zacks Business-Software Services industry is housed within the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector. It carries a Zacks Industry Rank #80, which places it in the top 31% of more than 250 Zacks industries.The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates bright near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.The industry’s positioning in the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of the positive earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts are optimistic on this group’s earnings growth potential. The industry’s earnings estimate for 2022 has moved up by 18.5% to 96 cents over the past year.Estimate Revision For 2022Before we present a few stocks that you may want to consider for your portfolio, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock-market performance and valuation picture.Industry Lags S&P 500, Outperforms SectorThe Zacks Business-Software Services industry has underperformed the S&P 500 Index but outperformed the broader Zacks Computer And Technology sector over the past year.The industry has risen 23.9% during this period compared with the broader sector’s rise of 19% and the S&P 500’s rally of 25.4%.One-Year Price PerformanceIndustry's Current ValuationComparing the industry with the S&P 500 composite and broader sector on the basis of the forward 12-month price-to-earnings, which is a commonly-used multiple for valuing business-software services stocks, we see, the industry’s ratio of 29.61X is higher than the S&P 500’s 21.59X and the sector’s 27.84X.Over the last five years, the industry has traded as high as 37.74X, as low as 6.60X, and recorded a median of 21.85X as the charts below show.F12M Price-to-Earnings Ratio (Industry Vs S&P 500)F12M Price-to-Earnings Ratio (Industry Vs Sector)4 Stocks to Keep a Close Eye On MSCI: This Zacks #2 (Buy) Ranked company offers investment decision support tools, including indexes; portfolio construction and risk management products and services; Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) research and ratings; and real estate research, reporting and benchmarking offerings. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. MSCI is benefiting from solid demand for custom and factor index modules, a recurring revenue business model and the growing adoption of its ESG solution in the investment process. The acquisition of Carbon Delta also enhances MSCI’s ability to provide climate-risk assessment and assist investors with climate-risk disclosure requirements. Additionally, the strong traction from client segments like wealth management, banks, and broker dealers is a positive for the company.Shares of this New York-based company have gained 30.2% during the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2022 earnings has moved 7 cents north to $11.20 per share over the past seven days.Price and Consensus: MSCICognizant Technology Solutions: It is a leading professional services company. The company offers digital services and solutions, consulting, application development, systems integration, application testing, application maintenance, infrastructure services and business process services.Cognizant’s domain expertise and the ability to harness the ongoing digital transition are key catalysts. It is witnessing strength in high quality, lower-cost technology services including cloud and digital engineering services, and increased demand for interactive, Internet of Things and analytics solutions. Steady growth in Healthcare, Communications, Media and Technology clients is a positive.This Teaneck, NJ-based company carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2022 earnings has moved up by a penny to $4.50 per share over the past 60 days. Shares of CTSH have gained 8.9% over the past year.Price and Consensus: CTSH Tyler Technologies: This Zacks Rank #3 company is a leading provider of integrated information-management solutions and services to the public sector. The company serves its customers both on-premise and in the cloud.Tyler is benefiting from higher recurring revenues, post-acquisition contributions of NIC, and constant rebound of the market and sales activities to pre-COVID levels. The public sector’s ongoing transition from on-premise and outdated systems to scalable cloud-based systems are positives. The coronavirus-led remote-working trend is also driving demand for its connectivity and cloud services.Shares of this Plano, TX-based company have gained 14.5% over the past year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2021 earnings has moved up by 5 cents to $6.74 per share over the past 60 days.Price and Consensus: TYLePlus: This Herndon, VA-based company enables organizations to optimize their IT infrastructure and supply-chain processes by delivering world-class IT products from top manufacturers, professional services, flexible lease financing, proprietary software, and patented business methods.The company is benefiting from the pandemic-driven demand for work-from-home hardware and software including, PCs, tablets, connectivity, collaboration, and security products. Apart from this, the company’s strategy of acquiring regional solution providers is helping it grow across the higher-margin IT services market.This Zacks Rank #3 stock has gained approximately 9.4% in the trailing 12 months. The consensus mark for fiscal 2022 earnings has remained unchanged at $3.87 per share in 90 days’ time.Price and Consensus: PLUS Infrastructure Stock Boom to Sweep America A massive push to rebuild the crumbling U.S. infrastructure will soon be underway. It’s bipartisan, urgent, and inevitable. Trillions will be spent. Fortunes will be made. The only question is “Will you get into the right stocks early when their growth potential is greatest?” Zacks has released a Special Report to help you do just that, and today it’s free. Discover 5 special companies that look to gain the most from construction and repair to roads, bridges, and buildings, plus cargo hauling and energy transformation on an almost unimaginable scale.Download FREE: How to Profit from Trillions on Spending for Infrastructure >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation (CTSH): Free Stock Analysis Report MSCI Inc (MSCI): Free Stock Analysis Report ePlus inc. (PLUS): Free Stock Analysis Report Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJan 14th, 2022

Futures Slide After Disappointing JPMorgan Earnings, Tech Rout Worsens

Futures Slide After Disappointing JPMorgan Earnings, Tech Rout Worsens After trading flat for much of the overnight session, S&P futures slumped to session lows shortly after JPM reported earnings that disappointed the market (see our full write up here) and were last trading down 30 points or 0.64%, with Dow futures down 0.3% and Nasdaq futures taking on even more water as the "sell tech" trade was back with a bang. Treasury yields rose 3bps to 1.74% and the dollar reversed an overnight loss. The VIX jumped above 20 and was last seen around 21. The Nasdaq 100 fell to the lowest in almost three months yesterday as tech came under pressure after Fed Governor Lael Brainard said officials could boost rates as early as March. It looks like the selling will continue today. “Market sentiment has been shaken by concerns over the prospect of imminent Fed tightening along with record global Covid-19 infection rates, but we don’t expect either of these factors to end the equity rally,” said UBS Wealth Management CIO Mark Haefele in a note. “The fourth-quarter U.S. earnings season, which started this week, could turn investor attention back to strong fundamentals.” JPMorgan shares dropped in premarket trading after revenues and EPS beat thanks to a $1.8 billion reserve release while FICC trading revenue missed expectations even as its dealmakers posted their best quarter ever and Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon gave an upbeat assessment of prospects for growth. Wells Fargo advanced after reporting higher-than-estimated revenue. BlackRock Inc. became the first public asset manager to hit $10 trillion in assets, propelled by a surge in fourth-quarter flows into its exchange-traded funds. Here are some of the other notable pre-movers today: U.S.-listed casino stocks with operations in Macau rise after the announcement of much-anticipated changes to the local casino law aimed at tightening government oversight on the world’s largest gaming market. Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) +6.6%; Melco Resorts (MLCO US) +5.5%; Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) +5.6%. Apple (AAPL US) shares are up in U.S. premarket trading after Piper Sandler raises its target for the stock, saying that Apple’s set-up for 2022 is favorable. Broker adds that the tech giant’s venture into health-care and automotive markets are the next catalysts to drive the stock to a $4 trillion market cap and beyond. NextPlay Technologies (NXTP US) shares jump 19% in U.S. premarket trading after giving an update for fiscal 3Q 2022 late yesterday. Domino’s Pizza (DPZ US) is cut to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley, while Chipotle is upgraded to overweight from equal-weight amid a “mixed” view on restaurant stocks into 2022. Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD US) advanced in postmarket trading after being upgraded to outperform from market perform at SVB Leerink, which cited the potential of a treatment for Pompe disease, should it be approved. Spirit Realty dropped 4% postmarket after launching a share sale via Morgan Stanley and BofA Securities. European equities traded poorly and followed the drop in Asia, with most sectors trading lower, weighed down once again by a soft tech sector. Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.8%, most major indexes dropped over 1% before rising off the lows. Oil & gas is the best Stoxx 600 performer with crude trading well. European technology stocks as well as pandemic winners are leading declines after a U.S. selloff in tech shares resumed Thursday as Federal Reserve officials signaled their intention to combat inflation aggressively.  European chipmakers are down in early trading Friday: ASM International -3.5% at 9.17 a.m. CET, Infineon -0.9%, ASML -2.9%, STMicroelectronics -2.3%. Meanwhile, energy and automakers outperformed. Utilities were also in focus as French nuclear energy producer Electricite de France SA (EDF) plunged by a record as the French government confirmed plans to force it to sell more power at a steep discount to protect households from surging wholesale electricity prices, a move that could cost the state-controlled utility 7.7 billion euros ($8.8 billion) at Thursday’s market prices. There was some good news: a majority of strategists still see the rally in European equities continuing this year. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index will rise about 5.2% to 511 index points by the end of 2022 from Wednesday’s close, according to the average of 19 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. Equity funds once more led inflows among asset classes in the week through Jan. 12, as investors reduced cash holdings, according to BofA and EPFR Global data. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slid as investors offloaded technology shares on growing speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in March.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.3% before paring losses to 0.7% in afternoon trading. Alibaba, Keyence and Sony Group were among the largest contributors to the benchmark’s slide. The Hang Seng Tech Index, which tracks China’s biggest tech firms, closed down 0.5%. Electronics makers also dragged down indexes in Japan and South Korea, with benchmarks in both nations leading the region’s drop. China’s CSI 300 Index closed at its lowest since November 2020. Asian stocks have been whipsawed this year by remarks from Fed officials as investors try to gauge the timing and scope of the anticipated interest rate hikes. The renewed weakness on Friday was triggered by comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who said officials could boost rates as early as March to ensure that price pressures are brought under control. “This kind of hawkishness and a rush for rate hikes is, of course, a minus for share prices,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank in Tokyo. If the Fed were to increase rates in March, “investors will want to make sure the economy remains strong despite the monetary tightening before making their move,” Sera added.  With Friday’s moves, Asia’s benchmark is set to pare its weekly gain to about 1.6%, which would still be its best weekly performance since October.    In Japan, sentiment worsened as Tokyo raised its Covid alert to the second-highest of four levels as virus cases surged. South Korea’s Kospi was also weighed down as the central bank increased its policy rate for the third time in just five months In rates, Treasuries pared declines with stock index futures under pressure as U.S. day begins. Yields beyond the 2-year reached session highs inside Thursday’s ranges amid a global government bond selloff. Treasury yields are cheaper by 3bp to 4bp across the curve with 10- year yields around 1.7274%, fading a bigger loss earlier and slightly underperforming bunds and gilts. Asia session featured speculation about tighter global monetary policy. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far and expected to remain light ahead of U.S. holiday weekend with markets closed Monday; four names priced $3.8b Thursday. In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot is little changed around worst levels for the week, while NOK, JPY and CAD top the G-10 scoreboard. The yen advanced, and is set for its largest weekly advance in more than a year as speculation about a shift in the Bank of Japan’s policy spurred a further unwinding of dollar longs. The five-year Japanese government bond yield climbed to a six-year high. The volatility term structure in dollar-yen shifted higher Friday and inverted. The euro was little changed around $1.1460 and European sovereign bond yields rose, with the core underperforming the periphery. Norway’s krone and the Canadian dollar advanced as oil prices rose, with Brent trading above $85 per barrel, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars were the worst performers. The pound extended its longest winning streak in nearly two months as the U.K. economy surpassed its pre-pandemic size in November for the first time. Sweden’s krona inched down, shrugging off data showing that the nation’s inflation rate rose to the highest level in 28 years In commodities, crude futures rally with WTI recovering to Wednesday’s best levels near $83 and Brent putting in fresh highs near $85.40. Spot gold is little changed a brief retest of the week’s highs, trading near $1,823/oz. Base metals are mixed: LME nickel adds about 2% extending its recent surge; copper holds a narrow range in the red Looking at the day ahead now, data releases include US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for December, along with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for January and the UK’s GDP for November. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and New York Fed President Williams. Lastly, earnings releases include Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and BlackRock. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,667.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 483.71 MXAP down 0.8% to 195.28 MXAPJ down 0.5% to 639.13 Nikkei down 1.3% to 28,124.28 Topix down 1.4% to 1,977.66 Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 24,383.32 Shanghai Composite down 1.0% to 3,521.26 Sensex up 0.1% to 61,320.31 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.1% to 7,393.86 Kospi down 1.4% to 2,921.92 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.08% Euro up 0.1% to $1.1467 Brent Futures up 0.8% to $85.16/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,823.97 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.73 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that three interest-rate increases this year was a “good baseline” but there may be fewer or even as many as five moves, depending on inflation The U.K. and the European Union agreed to intensify post-Brexit negotiations over Northern Ireland, as Foreign Secretary Liz Truss led the British side for the first time in a meeting at her official country residence Germany’s economy contracted by as much as 1% in the final quarter of 2021 as the emergence of the coronavirus’s omicron strain added to drags on output from supply snarls and the fastest inflation in three decades Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest, may mull investing in Chinese government bonds if the market situation improves, GPIF President Masataka Miyazono says at a press conference in Tokyo Ukraine said a cyberattack brought down the websites of several government agencies for hours. Authorities didn’t immediately comment on the source of the outage, which comes as tensions with Russia surge over its troop buildup near the border Russia won’t wait “endlessly” for a security deal with NATO and progress depends on the U.S., Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Friday, keeping up pressure after a week of high-level talks with the West failed to yield noticeable progress Turkey’s newly appointed finance chief said the country’s inflation will peak months earlier and at a level far lower than predicted by top Wall Street banks The global pressures driving inflation higher represent a “major change in trends” and will keep price growth high for the foreseeable future, Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina said North Korea appears to have fired two ballistic missiles into waters off its east coast-- in what could be its third rocket-volley test in less than 10 days -- hours after issuing a fresh warning to the Biden administration A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets weakened amid headwinds from the US where all major indices declined led by losses in tech and consumer discretionary amid a slew of hawkish Fed speak, while mixed Chinese trade data added to the cautiousness in the region. ASX 200 (-1.1%) traded lower as tech and consumer stocks mirrored the underperformance of stateside peers and with nearly all industries on the back foot aside from utilities and gold miners. Nikkei 225 (-1.3%) briefly gave up the 28k level amid a firmer currency and source reports that BoJ policy makers are said to debate how soon they can begin signalling a rate hike. In terms of the notable movers, Fast Retailing was the biggest gainer after it reported a record Q1 net, followed by Seven & I Holdings which also benefitted post-earnings, while Hitachi Construction was at the other end of the spectrum after news that parent Hitachi will offload half its majority stake. KOSPI (-1.4%) eventually underperformed after the Bank of Korea hiked rates by 25bps for a third time in the current tightening cycle to 1.25%, as expected. BoK also noted that CPI is to stay in the 3% range for a while and BoK Governor Lee made it clear that rates will continue to be adjusted which has fuelled speculation of similar action at next month’s meeting. Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.0%) were also pressured with participants digesting the latest trade figures which showed weaker than expected Imports although Exports topped estimates. Nonetheless, the downside was somewhat limited amid ongoing expectations for PBoC easing to support the economy as the Fed moves closer towards a rate lift off and with some encouragement after Evergrande averted its first onshore debt default whereby bondholders approved a six-month postponement of bond redemption and coupon payments. Finally, 10yr JGBs retreated beneath the 151.00 level following the source report that suggested debate within the BoJ on how soon a rate increase can be signalled which could occur ahead of the 2% price target, while this coincided with an increase in the 5yr yield to a 6-year high and a weaker than previous 20yr JGB auction. Top Asian News Chinese Developer R&F Downgraded to Restricted Default by Fitch Macau Cuts Casino License Tenure, Caps Float as Controls Tighten Inflation Irks Asia as Japan Yields Hit Six-Year High, BOK Hikes China Builders’ Dollar Bonds Slump Further; Logan, KWG Lead The major cash equity indices in Europe remain subdued but off worst levels (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%; Stoxx 600 -0.6%) as the downbeat APAC mood reverberated into the region amid a slew of hawkish Fed speak, while the mixed Chinese trade data added to the concerns of a slowdown ahead of next week’s GDP metrics. Newsflow had overall been quiet during the European session ahead of the start of US earnings season, but geopolitical tensions remain hot on the radar after North Korea fired its third missile of the year (albeit landing outside Japan’s EEZ), whilst Russia closed all communication channels with the EU and exerted some time-pressure on Washington with regards to Moscow’s security demands. Back to trade, a divergence is seen between Europe and the US as the former catches up to the late accelerated sell-off on Wall Street yesterday; US equity futures have been consolidating with mild broad-based gains seen across the ES (+0.2%), YM (+0.2%), NQ (+0.2%) whilst the RTY (Unch) narrowly lags. Delving into Europe, the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.1%) is cushioned by gains across its Oil & Gas and Financial sectors as crude oil prices and yields clamber off intraday lows, whilst the SMI (-0.3%) sees some losses countered by its heavyweight healthcare sector. Sectors in Europe are mostly in the red with a slight defensive tilt, although Oil & Gas stands as the top gainer and the only sector in the green. The downside meanwhile sees Tech following a similar sectorial underperformance seen on Wall Street and APAC overnight. In terms of individual movers, DAX-heavyweight SAP (-0.3%) conforms to the losses across tech after initially rising as a result of upgraded guidance and the announcement of a share buyback programme of up to EUR 1bln. The most notable mover of the day has been EDF (-17.5%) as the Co. withdrew guidance after noting the impact of new French price cap measures is forecast to be around EUR 8.4bln on FY22 EBITDA. Top European News EDF Slumps by Most on Record on Hit From Price Cap U.K. Economy Surpasses Pre-Pandemic Size With November Surge German Recovery Lags Rest of Europe on Supply Snarls, Inflation HSBC Markets Chief Georges Elhedery To Take Six-Month Sabbatical In FX, another lower low off a lower high does not bode well for the index and Buck more broadly, but some technicians will be encouraged by the fact that chart supports in the form of a Fib retracement and 100 DMA have only been breached briefly. Meanwhile, Friday may provide the Greenback with a prop via pre-weekend position squaring and US data could lend a hand if upbeat or better than expected at the very least. For now, the DXY is restrained between 94.887-626 confines, with the upside capped by a major trendline that falls just below 95.000 around 94.980, and the Dollar also hampered by pressure emanating outside the basket from the likes of the Yuan, crude oil and other commodities. CAD/JPY/GBP - The Loonie has reclaimed 1.2500+ status in line with a rebound in WTI towards Usd 83/brl, but still faces stiff trendline resistance vs its US counterpart at 1.2451 and probably conscious that several multi-billion option expiries roll off either side of the 1.2500 level today. Conversely, the Yen has cleared the psychological 114.00 hurdle with some fundamental impetus coming from hawkish BoJ source reports contending that policy-setters are contemplating how soon the Bank can telegraph a rate hike that is likely to be delivered prior to inflation reaching its 2% target. Elsewhere, Sterling remains elevated above 1.3700, though unable to scale 1.3750 even with tailwinds from stronger than forecast UK GDP and IP or a narrower than feared trade gap amidst ongoing political uncertainty. CHF/EUR/NZD/AUD - All narrowly divergent and contained against their US rival, with the Franc straddling 0.9100 and Euro holding within a 1.1483-51 range and immersed in hefty option expiry interest spanning 1.1395 to 1.1485 (see 7.01GMT post on the Headline Feed for details). On the flip-side, the Aussie and Kiwi have both lost a bit more momentum after probing 0.7300 and approaching 0.6900 respectively yesterday, and Aud/Usd appears to have shrugged off robust housing finance data in the run up to China’s trade balance revealing sub-consensus imports. SCANDI/EM - Firmer than anticipated Swedish CPI and CPIF metrics have not offered the Sek much support, as the stripped down core ex-energy print was in line and bang on the Riksbank’s own projection. However, the Huf has been underpinned by hot Hungarian inflation and the Cnh/Cny in wake of the aforementioned Chinese trade data showing a record surplus for December and 2021 overall. In Turkey, the Try is flattish following the latest CBRT survey that predicts a weaker year-end Lira from current levels, but above record lows and still well above target CPI, while in Russia the Rub is benefiting from Brent’s rise above Usd 85.50/brl (in keeping with the Nok) against the backdrop of geopolitical and diplomatic strains as the country’s Foreign Minister declares that all lines of communication with the EU have ended. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures have been on an upward trajectory since the Wall Street close, with the former now above USD 83/bbl (vs 81.58/bbl low) and the latter north of USD 85.50/bbl (vs 83.99/bbl low) in European hours. Overall market sentiment has been a non-committal one amid a lack of fresh macro catalysts, however, geopolitical updates have been abundant: namely with Russia’s punchy rhetoric surrounding its security demand from NATO and Washington, whilst North Korea fired what is said to be ballistic missiles which landed just outside Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). On the demand side of the equation, eyes remain on China’s economic and COVID situations, with the import figures indicating China's annual crude oil imports drop for the first time in 20 years, whilst the nation grounded further flights between the US due to its zero-COVID policy. On the supply side, reports suggested that China will release oil stockpiles in the run-up to the Lunar New Year (dubbed as the largest human migration). The release is part of a coordinated plan with the US and other major consumers, according to the reports, which cited sources suggesting China will likely ramp up its releases if prices top USD 85/bbl. Turning to metals, spot gold is trading sideways and prices waned after again hitting the resistance zone around USD 1,830/oz flagged earlier this week. LME copper meanwhile remains under USD 10,000/t – subdued by the sharp slowdown in Chinese imports suggesting weaker demand, albeit annual imports of copper concentrate hit a historic high in 2021. The trade data also indicated a fall in iron ore imports as a factor of the steel production curbs imposed last year to tackle pollution and high iron ore prices. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Dec. Import Price Index YoY, est. 10.8%, prior 11.7%; MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.7% Export Price Index YoY, est. 16.0%, prior 18.2%; MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 1.0% 8:30am: Dec. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0.3% Dec. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3% Dec. Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. -0.2%, prior 0.2% Dec. Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0%, prior -0.1% 9:15am: Dec. Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5% Capacity Utilization, est. 77.0%, prior 76.8% Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.3%, prior 0.7% 10am: Nov. Business Inventories, est. 1.3%, prior 1.2% 10am: Jan. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 70.0, prior 70.6; Expectations, est. 67.0, prior 68.3; Current Conditions, est. 73.8, prior 74.2 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 4.8%, prior 4.8%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.9% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap There was no rest for markets either yesterday as the tech sell-off resumed in earnest, which came as fed funds futures moved to price in a 93% chance of a March rate hike, the highest closing probability to date. At the same time, however, the US dollar continued to weaken and has now put in its worst 3-day performance in over a year, having shed -1.25% in that time. And all this is coming just as earnings season is about to ramp up, with a number of US financials scheduled to report today ahead of an array of companies over the next few weeks. Starting with sovereign bonds, yields on 10yr Treasuries fell a further -3.9bps yesterday, their biggest decline since mid-December, to their lowest closing level in a week, at 1.704%, with most of the price action again happening during the New York afternoon. Lower inflation breakevens helped drive the decline, with the 10yr breakeven down -3.4bps after the producer price inflation data for December came in softer than expected. Indeed, the monthly gain of +0.2% (vs. +0.4% expected) was the slowest since November 2020, and in turn that left the year-on-year measure at +9.7% (vs. +9.8% expected), which is actually a modest decline from the upwardly revised +9.8% in November. As with the previous day’s CPI reading though, there was a more inflationary interpretation for those after one, as the core PPI measure came in at a monthly +0.5% as expected, leaving the year-on-year change at an above-expected +8.3% (vs. +8.0% expected). So something for everyone but no massive surprises either way. The latest inflation data came as numerous Fed speakers continued to match the recent hawkish tone, which helped strengthen investor conviction in the odds of a March hike as mentioned at the top. Philadelphia Fed President Harker said at an event that “My forecast is that we would have a 25 basis-point increase in March, barring any changes in the data”, and that he had 3 hikes pencilled in but “could be convinced of a fourth if inflation is not getting under control.” Separately, we heard from Governor Brainard, who appeared before the Senate Banking Committee as part of her nomination hearing to become Fed Vice Chair. She signalled that she would be open to a March hike as well, saying that they would be in a position to hike “as soon as asset purchases are terminated”, which they’re currently on course to do in March. Even President Evans, one of the most dovish members of Fed leadership, said a March rate hike and multiple hikes this year were a possibility. As it happens, today is the last we’ll hear from various Fed speakers for a while, as tomorrow they’ll be entering their blackout period ahead of the next FOMC announcement later in the month. Staying on the Fed, Bloomberg reported overnight that President Biden has picked three nominees for the vacant slots. They include Sarah Bloom Raskin, previously Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, who’s reportedly going to be nominated to become the Vice Chair of supervision, as well as Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson, who’d become governors. Cook is an economics professor at Michigan State University, and Jefferson is an economics professor at Davidson College in North Carolina. All 3 would require Senate confirmation, and bear in mind those choices haven’t been officially confirmed as of yet. Over on the equity side, the main story was a further tech sell-off that sent both the NASDAQ (-2.51%) and the FANG+ index (-3.72%) lower for the first time this week, and taking the former to a 3-month low. That weakness dragged the S&P 500 (-1.5%) lower, though despite the stark headline numbers, it was only just over half of the shares in the index that were in the red on the day. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.03%) also saw a modest decline, though the STOXX Banks (+1.10%) hit a fresh 3-year high after advancing for the 8th time in the last 9 sessions. Sovereign bond yields echoed the declines in the US too, with those on 10yr bunds (-3.1bps), OATs (-3.3bps) and BTPs (-4.6bps) all moving lower. Following that tech-driven fall overnight on Wall Street on the back of those hawkish comments, Asian stock markets are trading lower this morning. Japan's Nikkei (-1.42%) extended the previous session’s losses while briefly falling over -2%, as the Japanese Yen found a renewed bid amid the risk-off mood. Additionally, the Kospi (-1.37%) widened its losses, after the BOK lifted borrowing costs by 25bps to 1.25% amidst rising concerns about inflationary pressure. That takes the benchmark rate back to pre-pandemic levels after the central bank's 25bps rate increase in August and November last year. Meanwhile, the Korean government unveiled a supplementary budget worth 14 trillion won in size to continue providing support to the economy. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng index (-0.86%), CSI (-0.60%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.53%) have all moved lower as well. Data released in China showed that exports went up +20.9% y/y in December (vs +20.0% market expectations) albeit imports in December rose +19.5% y/y less than +28.5% as anticipated. That meant that they posted a trade surplus of $94.46bn last month, above the consensus forecast for a $74.50bn surplus. Looking ahead, futures on both the S&P 500 (-0.19%) and DAX (-0.79%) are pointing to further losses later on. Elsewhere in markets, yesterday saw another surge in European natural gas futures (+13.71%), albeit still at levels which are less than half of the peaks seen in mid-December. The latest moves came as Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov said that talks with the US had reached a “dead end”, amidst strong tensions between the two sides with Russia rejecting any further expansion of NATO as well as calls to pull back its forces from near Ukraine’s border. In response, the Russian ruble weakened -2.31% against the US dollar yesterday, whilst the MOEX stock index (-4.05%) suffered its worst daily performance since April 2020. Turning to the Covid-19 pandemic, the decline in UK cases continued to accelerate yesterday, with the number of cases over the past week now down -24% relative to the previous 7-day period. Looking at England specifically, the total number of Covid-19 patients in hospital is now down for a 3rd day running, and in London the total number in hospital is down to its lowest level since New Year’s Eve. To the day ahead now, and data releases include US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for December, along with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for January and the UK’s GDP for November. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and New York Fed President Williams. Lastly, earnings releases include Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and BlackRock. Tyler Durden Fri, 01/14/2022 - 08:13.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytJan 14th, 2022

TPG surges 14% in public debut after first major IPO of the year values the private equity giant at $10 billion

The firm priced its IPO at $29.50 per share, selling 33.9 million shares to raise about $1 billion in proceeds. Emmanuel Dunand/AFP via Getty ImagesTPG stock jumped as much as 14% in its debut on Thursday, becoming the biggest IPO so far this year.The private equity firm priced its IPO at $29.50 per share, giving it an initial valuation of about $9 billion. TPG has $109 billion in assets under management and more than 280 portfolio companies.Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell.Private equity giant TPG surged as much as 14% in its trading debut on Thursday, giving the firm a valuation of more than $10 billion.The firm priced its IPO at $29.50 per share, selling 33.9 million shares to raise about $1 billion in proceeds at a more than $9 billion valuation. That makes it the biggest IPO so far this year. The IPO price represented the midpoint of TPG's estimated price range between $28 and $31 per share.Shares hit a high of $33.50 in its first minute of trades. The stock trades under the ticker symbol "TPG" on the Nasdaq exchange. TPG was founded as Texas Pacific Group in 1992 and found its first big success when it bought Continental Airlines out of bankruptcy and turned around the company. From there, the company has invested in several companies that have since gone public like Airbnb and Spotify, and has more than 280 active portfolio companies.The IPO is being closely watched by investment bankers, as recent market weakness has put on hold what was a busy IPO market last year. On Wednesday, software firm Justworks postponed its IPO, citing market conditions. TPG has long toyed with the idea of going public and now joins private equity rivals Blackstone, KKR, and Carlyle Group, among others, with stock listings. But TPG's size pales in comparison to the $731 billion managed by Blackstone and KKR's $459 billion.Still, TPG's small size shouldn't stop it from being gobbled up by investors who may be hoping for the similar returns of other public private equity firms. Over the past year, Blackstone, KKR, and Carlyle Group outperformed the S&P 500 by 75, 53, and 37 percentage points, respectively. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 13th, 2022

TPG stock opens about 12% above IPO price, to value the company at more than $10 billion

TPG Inc.'s stock received a warm reception on its public debut, as the stock opened 11.9% its initial public offering price. The alternative investment firm raised $835.2 million as it sold 28.3 million shares in the IPO, which priced overnight at $29.50 a share, in the middle of the expected range of between $28 and $31 a share. The stock's first trade on the Nasdaq was at $33.00 at 12:33 p.m. Eastern for 2.4 million shares. At that price, the company was valued at about $10.1 billion. Since the open, the stock has added slightly to gains to trade up 12.4% at $33.15. The company went public on rather downbeat day for recently-IPO'd stocks, as the Renaissance IPO ETF dropped 3.5% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.6%.Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatchJan 13th, 2022

3 Stocks to Gain From the Flourishing Building Maintenance Industry

With manufacturing and service activities gathering steam and the construction business reviving, the Zacks Building Products - Maintenance Service industry is poised to prosper. LMB, ABM and ROL are three well-placed stocks to ride this demand strength. Strength in the construction business, along with a rise in manufacturing and service activities, is enabling the Zacks Building Products - Maintenance Services industry to support the improving demand environment.Service essentiality, technology and capital-management measures are aiding Limbach Holdings, Inc. LMB, ABM Industries Incorporated ABM and Rollins, Inc. ROL to sail through the pandemic-induced testing times.About the IndustryCompanies under the Zacks Building Products - Maintenance Services category provide a wide range of services, including electrical, lighting, cleaning, installation, repair, replacement, heating, ventilation, air-conditioning (HVAC), plumbing, landscaping, equipment upgradation, energy monitoring and pest control. The industry is steadily recovering from the pandemic-induced weakness, with demand for services shooting up in residential, commercial and public buildings and various industries across the globe. As these services are essential and cannot be delayed or canceled, demand for the same is expected to accelerate drastically post-pandemic, helping the industry players quickly cater to the end markets, recover from the Covid-19-induced supply-chain disruptions and negative financial impacts.What's Shaping the Future of the Building Maintenance Industry?Sustained Demand Expansion: Revenues, income and cash flows have been increasing for the past several years, mainly because the companies offer services that consumers generally cannot delay. This has enabled most industry players to increase dividends.Manufacturing and Service in the Pink: With both manufacturing and service activities gathering steam, demand for building maintenance services is anticipated to rise steadily. Although the economic activity in the manufacturing sector shrunk 2.4% from November to December, with the Manufacturing PMI measured by the Institute for Supply Management (“ISM”) touching 58.7%, the reading of above 50% marked the 19th consecutive month of expansion. Non-manufacturing activities declined 7.1% in December from the November all-time high of 69.1, as the Services PMI measured by the ISM touched 62%. With a reading above 50%, this is the 19th consecutive month of expansion of service activities.Increasing Construction Spending: The construction business, on which the industry is largely dependent, has strengthened sequentially and year over year. Per the latest release by the U.S. Census Bureau, construction spending during November 2021 was estimated at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of $1,625.9 billion, up 0.4% from the October 2021 estimate and 9.3% from the November 2020 estimate. During the first 11 months of 2021, construction spending rose 7.9% from the same period in 2020.Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Bright ProspectsThe Building Products - Maintenance Service industry, which is housed within the broader Business Services sector, currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #18. This rank places it in the top 7% of more than 250 Zacks industries.The group’s Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates solid near-term growth prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.Analysts covering the companies in this industry have been steadily pushing their estimates north. Over the past year, the industry’s consensus earnings estimate for 2022 has moved 20.2% north.Before we present a few stocks that you may want to consider for your portfolio, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock-market performance and current valuation.Industry's Price PerformanceOver the past year, the Zacks Building Products - Maintenance Service has depreciated 17.6% against the S&P 500 composite’s rally of 23.7%. The broader sector has declined 37.5% during the same period.One-Year Price PerformanceIndustry's Current ValuationComparing the industry with the S&P 500 composite on the basis of forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E), which is a commonly-used multiple for the industry, we see that the industry trades at 30.73X, higher than the S&P 500’s 21.52X and the sector’s 29.65X.Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 72.32X, as low as 25.11X and at a median of 37.44X.Price to Forward 12 Month P/E Ratio3 Building Maintenance Stocks to ConsiderWe present three stocks that currently carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and are well-positioned for near-term growth. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. Limbach Holdings, Inc.: The company is a commercial specialty contract services provider. It is currently focusing on risk management under an enhanced project selection framework, cash flow and liquidity maximization through improved working capital management. While the sales pipeline is strong in most of its existing markets, Limbach pursues opportunities in new markets.Limbach currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s 2022 EPS has moved up 8% over the past 60 days.Price and Consensus: LMBABM Industries Incorporated: This integrated facility solutions provider currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. ABM's multi-year comprehensive strategic plan, ELEVATE, focuses on providing clients with offerings that enhance transparency and efficiencies, developing its own talent management system capabilities, expanding data usage and modernizing the digital ecosystem. ELEVATE is expected to significantly accelerate the company’s organic growth, improve its strategic and comprehensive positioning and reinforce profitability.The recently closed acquisition of Able Services is expected to strengthen ABM’s engineering and technical services and expand its sustainability and energy efficiency offerings. The buyout adds $1.1 billion in engineering and janitorial services revenues and is anticipated to achieve around $30 million to $40 million in cost synergies for the company.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2022 EPS has been unchanged at $3.41 over the past 60 days.Price and Consensus: ABMRollins, Inc.: This leading pest and termite control services provider is benefiting from its balanced approach to organic and inorganic growth. The company’s revenues increased 11.4% in the third quarter of 2021, with acquisitions contributing 2.2% and organic growth contributing 9.2%. All of its business lines – residential, commercial and termite – are currently in good shape.Rollins currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2022 EPS has been unchanged at 72 cents over the past 60 days.Price and Consensus: ROL Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple-Digit Profit Potential The biotech sector is projected to surge beyond $2.4 trillion by 2028 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases. They’re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases. Zacks has just released Century of Biology: 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance. Recommendations from previous editions of this report have produced gains of +205%, +258% and +477%. The stocks in this report could perform even better.See these 7 breakthrough stocks now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Rollins, Inc. (ROL): Free Stock Analysis Report ABM Industries Incorporated (ABM): Free Stock Analysis Report Limbach Holdings, Inc. (LMB): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJan 13th, 2022

Top Stock Picks For 2022

2022 is a stock pickers market and the recent dip provides us with some favorable pricing for these winning picks. After a brief yield-fueled market pullback to start the year, 2022’s looks ripe with fresh investment opportunities. Below I break down 6 innovation-powered picks for the rapidly digitalizing economic environment that the new normal is poised to drive materially higher.An Accommodative FedFed Chair Powell's dovish words of relief in his reconfirmation hearing on Capitol Hill provided a friendly bid for recently pressured equities (especially deeply discounted innovation), giving US Treasury yields a chance to take a momentary pause before the Fed's January meeting at the end of this month.Jerome Powell remains stoic in his positioning regarding the persistent nature of global supply and demand imbalances that he maintains are being generated by relentless COVID pressures, which have yet to subside (I agree with this perspective).Jerome acknowledged that the aggressive monetary stimulus the Fed provided public markets for nearly 2 years now is no longer necessary but didn't sound anxious to raise the Fed Funds rate back to pre-pandemic levels in any expedited manner.Powell reiterated what he had said in December's FOMC meeting: we are operating in a digitalized economic environment that is entirely different than the one we left behind in 2019 (no past comparable can be used as reference). The Fed has lowered its long-term target Fed Funds range by 50 basis points since the pandemic began, implying a systemic economic shift that could support lower rates.Jerome's dovish comments about the natural inflation curbing ahead coupled with a slow and steady monetary tightening strategy were just what the market needed to hear. Powell may have put a bottom in for the best-positioned high-growth stocks in the market. It's time to get greedy as others remain fearful.CrowdStrike (CRWD)When asked what he thought the greatest threat to the US economy was at present, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's answer wasn't the Omicron-variant, inflation, or even global economic turmoil but a cyberattack on a prominent US financial institution. CrowdStrike CRWD and its unmatchable cutting-edge AI-fueled cybersecurity platform is the long-term opportunity for this looming digital threat. Any price below $200 a share is a steal for CRWD.CrowdStrike is trusted by Wall Street's top firms, including Goldman Sachs GS and Credit Suisse CS, who can't afford to have any digital vulnerabilities.CrowdStrike is a modern cloud-based solution for the escalating security threats that the increasingly mobile internet age has brought. This company leverages AI, cloud computing, and graph databases for its vigilant security software. CrowdStrike's security AI is perpetually improving as it advances from crowdsourcing and economies of scale. CRWD's cloud-based Falcon platform is an intelligent and evolving digital protector that detects and stops breaches in real-time. This business was provided with a tremendous tailwind in 2020 as the enterprise's best-in-class AI-driven cybersecurity platform became arguably the most sought-after in the industry. Business spending is taking off as we enter 2022 and the economy finally reemerges from the Pandemic downturn. Upgrading cybersecurity is on the top of that Cap Ex list for many financial institutions. CrowdStrike's best-in-class AI-powered Falcon platforms are the obvious solution to any business's digital susceptibility concerns.The TradeThe Fed has now set its interest rate expectations for 2022, and I believe it's prudent to start a position in this best-in-class cybersecurity stock for the future.The market looks to have put in a bottom to CRWD's precipitous decline at just below $175 a share. Look to buy CRWD between $200 and $190, which I presume we reach at some point in today's session, with profit pulling in mega-cap tech weighing on sentiment for high-valuation stocks.Final Thought On CRWDCrowdStrike is taking over the cybersecurity space with its unmatchable threat detection and immediate response capabilities that continue to improve as its proven AI-driven platform learns and adapts to mounting risks. No matter what happens in the broader economy, there will continue to be a swelling demand for this technology as the rapid digital adaptation exposes more and more endpoint liabilities.The company is expected to turn a full-year profit in 2022. Its proliferating subscription-based business model provides the visibility & reliability that justify its still frothy valuation (24x price to forward sales).This is a high-risk/high-reward play, so I am only giving it a 5% allocation. Still, with price targets averaging around $300 a share, I am confident that reward far outweighs the risk in the long run, as long as you can stomach some short-term volatility.ACM Research (ACMR)The time to reopen our Headline Trader portfolio to the recently suppressed Chinese stocks has come, with Biden's administration making clear efforts to resume its alliance with Beijing (after years of political turmoil). At the same time, China's overdue economic recovery commences as it prepares for the 2022 Olympics in Beijing, which is now less than 4 weeks away.At the same time, the ripping rally in US public equities has been decelerating over the past 2 months, following an over 100% bull run from the S&P 500 since the pandemic lows in March 2020 (40% above pre-pandemic high), and investors are beginning to look abroad for higher return opportunities.I am adding ACM Research ACMR, a niche small-cap semiconductor play with ideal exposure in Asia. ACMR provides substantial upside potential at its currently discounted valuation, with its rapidly accelerating chipmaking capacity and its strategic Chinese exposure being the primary buy catalyst.ACM Research is a global leader in semiconductor equipment. As chip manufacturers in Asia begin ramping up production, ACM's best-in-class chipmaking equipment is poised to take flight following a year and a half of sideways trading action.Chip demands far surpassing current production capacities entering the digital renaissance of the 4th Industrial Revolution, positioning this business to explode as the Roaring 20s recommence.China Risk's May Be USChinese stocks have been hammered for nearly a year now, as President Xi and his increasingly autocratic communist administration crackdown on the swelling wealth in its booming tech sector. Xi's fear of losing control of "his" nation to a wealthy group of elites is reminiscent of Mao Zedong's totalitarian regime.This paranoid egotistical positioning has led to a tidal wave of new tech-focused regulations under the guise of elevating "equality" and improved "productivity." These have capitulated the value of this nation's most prominent innovators by a meaningful amount.Those stocks that had been at the center of these regulatory headwinds have seen their share values significantly deteriorate, presenting some superior long-term prospects as the global economy reemerges from the pandemic with a digitally fueled ambition.The CatalystACM Research is a US-based capital equipment firm. Yet, its 3 most prominent customers, representing 76% of 2020 revenue, are based in mainland China, with another nearly 10% of its sales going to a South Korean chip innovator. Over the past 5 years, China and Korea have seen their semiconductor spaces drive compounded annual revenue growth of 20.7% & 19.5% and have become the epicenter for future development for ACMR.As ACM Research takes advantage of the booming demand, this chip equipment powerhouse is rapidly ramping up its own equipment production capacity and capabilities (more offerings) in the region. The company has several new expansion projects for organic growth that will continue to fuel this stock's growth in 2022.ACMR remains a small-cap equity with a market cap of less than $1.5 billion, but with proven profitable growth between 35% - 45% in the past 3 years, and a place in Morgan Stanley's short list of 2022 chip picks, it’s only a matter of time before the market gets wind of this unique investment thesis and lifts ACMR out of its small-cap shadow and into the large-cap spotlight.6 out of 6 analysts are calling ACMR a buy today now, with price targets between $100 and $150 (representing upsides between 27% and 92%). Not to mention the increasingly bullish outlook on ACMR has thrusted this stock into a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).SMART Global Holdings (SGH)SMART Global Holdings SGH is the under-the-radar semiconductor stock you've been looking for, with its broadening portfolio of cutting-edge chips poised to take flight in this commencing technological Renaissance.SGH is roaring out of the shadows with an ambitious growth strategy that won't remain under the investors' radars for much longer. New CEO Mark Adams is transforming this once complacent memory-focused legacy tech business into a motivated leader in niche innovations.The company released a record quarterly report at the start of 2022, blowing analysts' estimates out of the water and raising forward guidance. However, SGH's undiscovered attributes appear to have both positive and negative consequences, which we saw in its (unwarranted) post-earnings capitulation. This drop-off is a technical retreat catalyzed by the overbought RSI levels it had reached in recent weeks after an over 100% 52-week run into this year opening earnings report (confusion about the upcoming stock split may also be playing a role).The good news is that it presents us with an excellent long-term investment and short-term trading opportunity as the stock picks up support at its 50-day moving average.SMART Global shares' exceedingly thin trading volumes (low liquidity due to its under-the-radar quality) allowed a small group of controlling institutional shareholders to direct its post-earnings narrative. They pulled profits from this recent winner (up 70% since mid-October), and the downward momentum catalyzed a fear-fueled momentum sell-off.The TradeDon't let these big-shot Wall Street firms scare you away from this clear-cut winner. SGH's post-earnings capitulation is extraordinarily overdone and with the recent shareholder shuffle.Silver Lake, a nearly $100 billion tech-focus private equity fund, had been the primary shareholders of SGH since it went public in 2017 until this past fall when the global investment group completely exited the trade (with public returns of nearly 400% in just a few years), leaving $10s of millions in stock value up for grabs.SMART Global's ownership has since been erratic, with most of the investing world still unaware of this small-cap stock's existence. SGH's ownership is almost entirely institutional at this point, and with the already thin volumes, its vulnerability to short-term price manipulation is high.Nevertheless, those analysts covering SGH are more bullish than ever after its most recent quarterly release.The Earnings ReportSMART Global SGH reported its November quarter results (fiscal Q1 2022) after the closing bell Tuesday afternoon (1/4), beating analysts' estimates and raising guidance, yet SGH fell off a cliff. SMART Global achieved record revenues and margins that flowed down to an incredible 177% increase in per-share profits, with its top-of-the-line intelligence platforms (AI, HPC, & other cloud-functionality) being this next-generation innovator's primary growth driver.SGH was down as much as 18% in its post-earnings price action, but I remain unconvinced that it will stay below $70 a share for long. This knee-jerk sell-off reaction resulted from its small market cap (less than $1.5 billion), concentrated ownership, and overbought RSI levels, which SGH had floated up into following its sizable 25% end-of-year rally.SGH also announced that it would be initiating a 2-for-1 stock split, which would go into effect at the beginning of February. This is a clear signal from SMART Global's new CEO, Mark Adams, whose savvy ambition for innovative growth is the primary reason we are in SGH, that this stock is headed much higher. Either way, I'm more bullish on SGH post-earnings than ever before.The TransformationNow is the time to add this hidden gem to your portfolio before the broader investing world catches wind of this discounted chip winner.SMART Global has been around since the late 80s, but it wasn't until Mark Adams took the helm amid the pandemic last year that this chipmaker's upside potential went through the roof. Adams is transforming this once complacent memory-focused legacy tech company into an energized visionary.Adams was the leading force behind SGH's quick strategic acquisition of Cree's niche LED chip business at the peak of pandemic fear for a steal at $300 million. Cree LED's synergies are already paying dividends as it drives margin expansion, improves the firm's capital & operational efficiency, and provides critical industry relationships.SMART Global's new forward-thinking chief has already vastly improved its operational performance and is ramping up R&D spending to ensure that the enterprise remains ahead of the innovative curve.Analysts are getting increasingly bullish on this under-the-radar transformation play as SGH flips the switch on accelerating profitable growth, knocking estimates out of the park by an expanding percentage over the past 3 quarters. Zacks Consensus EPS Estimates for SGH's have been soaring across all time horizons after this most recent quarterly report driving the stock into a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), and all 6 covering analysts agree on a buy rating for the unique value opportunity here.The New Business MixSMART Global Holdings had been a reliable pure-play memory leader in the chip space for over 30 years before deciding to broaden its product portfolio, which appeared to be catalyzed by activist investors following SGH's 2017 IPO. The company has since executed 4 strategic acquisitions.Penguin Computing was SGH's first vital acquisition ($85 million price tag) back in 2018, adding a broad portfolio of leading next-generation products, including high-performance computing (HPC), cloud computing, hyperscale data centers, and the development of artificial intelligence (AI). This segment has exploded since its acquisition as its AI-focused products experience budding demand. In the summer of 2019, this resourceful chip giant acquired Artesyn Embedded Computing and Inforce Computing for $80 million and $12 million, respectively. Artesyn (which is now called Smart Embedded Computing) provides critical data center architecture used in "industries such as telecom, military and aerospace, medical, and diverse automation and industrial markets," according to its website.SMART Wireless Computing (formerly known as Inforce Computing) exposes the enterprise to cutting-edge technologies like "medical imaging, collaboration/videoconferencing, wearable hands-free computing, and robotics/unmanned aerial vehicles," according to its investor relations page.SMART's diverse set of growing end-market demands provides the company with an enormous total addressable market (TAM), significant upside potential, and not to mention an excellent hedge against the cyclical nature of the semiconductor market.The mere 11x forward P/E that SGH is currently trading at is a remarkably underappreciated valuation multiple for a high-growth tech business that is expected to exhibit consistent 20%+ earnings growth in the years to come.Final Thoughts On SGHWith its fresh innovation-oriented operational outlay, Mark Adams at the helm (with a now proven track record of skilled management), and an industry-wide outlook of accelerating growth, the future SGH has never been brighter. SGH’s post-earnings capitulation has presented us with an incredible investment opportunity today.Analysts are more bullish than ever on this undiscovered profitable growth chip innovator, which will likely not remain under the broader market’s radar for long. I’m looking at price targets between $90 and $100 a share.Uber (UBER)Uber's UBER heavily discounted valuation is finally receiving the attention it deserves as investors begin to recognize the opportunity that this leading mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) business provides in the new normal. Uber Eats & Uber Rides are poised to explode with margin expanding growth in the new normal as our digitally conditioned global economy relies on these leading mobility services more than ever.A flood of analysts are coming out with exceptionally bullish outlooks on this next-generation global leader in digitally fueled mobility solutions. 22 out of 25 analysts are calling Uber a buy now, with no sell ratings. UBER is trading 75% below its average price target of more than $70 a share and it continues to rise.Alaskan Air (ALK)Alaskan Air ALK is perfectly positioned for the 2022 as it becomes the go-to budget airliner. Alaskan took advantage of the unique growth opportunity the pandemic shutdowns presented, adding 70 new markets, and is one of the few commercial airlines to return to profitability in the third quarter of 2021. Its commitment to customer satisfaction and focus on ESG goals will keep ALK at the top of its class.  The CompanyAlaskan Air ALK, primarily driven by vacationers instead of business travel, generated its first positive quarterly earnings since the pandemic began in Q3 as it benefited from the summer getaway rush. I see ALK as the best-positioned airline moving forward with its best-in-class budget vacation offering and still ripening synergies from its acquisition of Virgin America back in 2016.ALK has been an outperforming airline throughout the pandemic with an ESG-focus and no business travel reliance. Analysts have been pushing their price targets to around $80 a share (38% upside), with estimated record earnings by 2023. ALK just busted above its 50-day moving average, and is on its way towards its consensus price target.With remote working functionalities like cloud computing, video conferencing, team messaging, workflow automation, etc., analysts are beginning to rightly question whether companies will be paying up for flights when the job can and has proven to be done in a remote environment.Corporate travel will not return to pre-pandemic levels, at least not anytime soon, and the stocks to stick with are the budget vacation plays, with Alaskan Air being at the top of that value list. I’m looking at price targets between $75 and $100 a share, for this airliner of the New Normal.Upstart (UPST)Upstart UPST, the AI-driven fintech innovator changing the way creditworthiness is assessed, is ripe for a buy today with a couple of key support levels ready to maintain its recent buoyancy, following an overdone sell-off.The final quarter of 2021 was horrendous for the top fintech innovators, with Cathie Wood's ARK Invest Fintech ETF ARKF, the benchmark for next-generation digital finance, falling over 25%. Investors have been selling growth stocks indiscriminately, creating some excellent buying opportunities for the best-positioned fintech equities.UPST has seen significant valuation compression from its mid-October 2021 highs at $400, but the over 1,500% gain it saw from its IPO last December may have been a little overzealous. With UPST now 70% below those highs, it's time to consider adding UPST to your portfolio.Upstart's recent capitulation was catalyzed by profit-pulling in the face of Q3 earnings coupled with the Fed's accelerating tapering timeline, which has valuation compressing impacts on this fintech giant, do to its outsized growth outlay (analysts expecting to see 250% topline appreciation in 2021).UPST found critical support at a vital Fib-derived level around $160, where the markets appear to have put in a temporary bottom.I am looking at a UPST price target of $300+ with quarterly performance continuously outpacing even the most optimistic analysts. Upstart is looking at an unprecedented profitable growth outlook, and with most fresh fintech startups not even able to post positive earnings, UPST is more attractive than ever.The BusinessThis AI-powered cloud incepted fintech business is changing the way banks assess creditworthiness. Many fintech giants are competing against banks, but Upstart has decided to partner with them in its next-generation offering. This is an excellent position to be in as a high-growth company in a rising interest rate environment because higher rates means more profits for banks, which should inevitably drive significant demand for Upstart's one-of-a-kind product offering.The AI platform uses more than 1,600 differing variables before coming to the conclusion of creditworthiness compared to the typical bank, which only looks at 8-15 and the most sophisticated models 30.Upstart's CEO David Girouard said his lending algorithm is 5 times more effective than current systems at accurately depicting a person's ability to repay a loan. Saying that on a scale of 1-100, the current credit regimes are only at about 2 on predicting risk of default, and David believes his AI platform would put banks at closer to a 10, with still a lot more room to grow. Upstart's AI is continuously learning and will continue to be more effective as it is provided with more datasets.A Strategy To Stick To Amid 2022’s Chop:“Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful”Continue to buy the dips in your favorite stocks and look past the short-term volatility (don’t let this choppy market discourage you).Happy Trading!Dan LaboeEquity Strategist & Manager of The Headline Trader Portfolio at Zacks Investment Research Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple-Digit Profit Potential The biotech sector is projected to surge beyond $2.4 trillion by 2028 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases. They’re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases. Zacks has just released Century of Biology: 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance. Recommendations from previous editions of this report have produced gains of +205%, +258% and +477%. The stocks in this report could perform even better.See these 7 breakthrough stocks now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS): Free Stock Analysis Report Credit Suisse Group (CS): Free Stock Analysis Report ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR): Free Stock Analysis Report Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK): Free Stock Analysis Report SMART Global Holdings, Inc. (SGH): Free Stock Analysis Report ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF): ETF Research Reports Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER): Free Stock Analysis Report CrowdStrike (CRWD): Free Stock Analysis Report Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJan 13th, 2022

Bull of the Day: Manchester United (MANU)

Bulls looking to take their shot at current prices. Manchester United (MANU) is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) operates the popular Manchester United Football Club in the United Kingdom. For those Americans not aware, this is a popular soccer team, known very well worldwide.The ManU club is also known as the “Red Devils” and could be compared to the New York Yankees in terms of their historical success. The team competes in the English Premier League and other soccer events around Europe.  The stock has done very little over the last decade since MANU became public in 2012. As it trades at the bottom of a decade long range on Omicron fears, there is now a great opportunity to enter the stock for both short and long-term investors.About the Company Manchester United operates the football club, markets sponsorships, sells apparel and other licensed products. The company was founded in 1878,employs over 1,000 and is headquartered in Manchester, United Kingdom.  MANU has a market cap of $2.4 billion and has Zacks Style Scores of “A” in Growth and “B” in Value.Football, Soccer or Fútbol?Whatever you may call it, the sport is growing globally around the world. Even if you haven’t seeked it out, you have probably noticed English Premiere League games on Saturday and Sunday mornings on the NBC or USA networks.These games are giving exposure to viewers who didn’t have access a decade ago. With viewers comes fans, merchandise and revenue for each club.Q1 Earnings Manchester Untied reported earnings back in November, seeing 56% EPS surprise to the upside. Revenues came in at £126.5M v £109.0M last year and net debt came down a tad, moving from $440.6M last year to $439.7M.Management cited the success to the company’s resilience through the pandemic. With that, the reiterated that their top priority is “success on the pitch”.Manchester United Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise Manchester United Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Manchester United Ltd. QuoteEstimatesEstimates are mixed going froward. Analysts are hiking numbers for the current quarter, but keeping them flat for next quarter. However, we see improvement into next year, with estimates going from negative $0.12 to a positive $0.01.No doubt the recent resurgence of cases with the Omicron variant has scared investors. There have been some cancelled games where players have tested positive, which has hurt the stock.However, England has announced they will not be shutting down the country. Investors need to understand that this is not 2020 and the games will be played.The TechnicalsThe sell off due to the variant has created a great opportunity for both short and long-term investors.Looking at the chart since 2020, the $14 level has held and bounced five times now. The stock has moved to $16 each of those times and we saw a bounce to $20 twice. That’s gain of 40% that happened twice in 2021 alone. So traders should be buying this $14 level and looking for a sixth bounce.Long-term, we are looking at that support level to set up for a multi-year hold. The bulls will need to take back the $18 level and then finally break that $20 level that was sold twice this year. If that can happen, we could see $25 and the 2019 high of $27.70.Bottom Line If we can get past Omicron and normalize later in the year, MANU is poised to have strong demand for its brands. Whether its sponsors, merchandise or actually fans in the stands, MANU stands to benefit from the end of COVID.Traders have a great setup off the $14 support level. And long-term investors have a chance to buy low into a top brand in a growing global sport. Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2022 In addition to the investment ideas discussed above, would you like to know about our 10 top picks for the entirety of 2022? From inception in 2012 through November, the Zacks Top 10 Stocks gained an impressive +962.5% versus the S&P 500’s +329.4%. Now our Director of Research is combing through 4,000 companies covered by the Zacks Rank to handpick the best 10 tickers to buy and hold. Don’t miss your chance to get in on these stocks when they’re released on January 3.Be First To New Top 10 Stocks >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Manchester United Ltd. (MANU): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksJan 6th, 2022

Futures Tread Water With Traders Spooked By Spike In Yields

Futures Tread Water With Traders Spooked By Spike In Yields After futures rose to a new all time high during the Tuesday overnight session, the mood has been decided more muted after yesterday's sharp rates-driven tech selloff, and on Wednesday U.S. futures were mixed and Nasdaq contracts slumped as investors once again contemplated the effect of expected rate hikes on tech stocks with lofty valuations while waiting for the release of Federal Reserve minutes at 2pm today. At 730am, Nasdaq 100 futures traded 0.3% lower amid caution over the impact of higher yields on equity valuations, S&P 500 Index futures were down 0.1%, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 gauge traded near a record high. The dollar weakened, as did bitcoin, while Brent crude rose back over $80. “The sharp rise in U.S. yields this week has sparked a move from growth to value,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific. “Wall Street went looking for the winners in an inflationary environment and as a result, loaded up on the Dow Jones at the expense of the Nasdaq.” Concerns related to the pandemic deepened as Hong Kong restricted dining-in, closed bars and gyms and banned flights from eight countries including the U.S. and the U.K. to slow the spread of the omicron variant. Meanwhile, a selloff in technology stocks extended to Asia, where the Hang Seng Tech Index tumbled as much as 4.2%, sending the gauge toward a six-year low. Traders are now caught in a quandary over deepening fears on global growth combined with a faster tightening by the Federal Reserve. “Earlier we thought that rate hikes wouldn’t be on the table until mid-2022 but the Fed seems to have worked up a consensus to taper faster and hike sooner rather than later,” Steve Englander, head of global G-10 FX research at Standard Chartered, said in a note. “But we don’t think inflation dynamics will support continued hiking. We suspect the biggest driver of asset markets will be when inflation and Covid fears begin to ebb.” Data on Tuesday showed mixed signs on U.S. inflation. Prices paid by manufacturers in December came in sharply lower than expected. However, figures showing a faster U.S. job quit rate added to concerns over wage inflation. With 4.5 million Americans leaving their jobs in November, compared with 10.6 million available positions, the odds increased the Fed will struggle to influence the employment numbers increasingly dictated by social reasons. The data came before Friday’s monthly report from the Labor Department, currently forecast to show 420,000 job additions in December. In premarket trading, tech giants Tesla, Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices were among the worst performers. Pfizer advanced in New York premarket trading after BofA Global Research recommended the stock. Shares of Chinese companies listed in the U.S. extended their decline after Tencent cut its stake in gaming and e-commerce company Sea, triggering concerns of similar actions at other firms amid Beijing’s regulatory crackdown on the technology sector. Alibaba (BABA US) falls 1.2%, Didi (DIDI US) -1.8%. Here are the other notable premarket movers: Shares in electric vehicle makers fall in U.S. premarket trading, set to extend Tuesday’s losses, amid signs of deepening competition in the sector. Tesla (TSLA US) slips 1.1%, Rivian (RIVN US) -0.6%. Beyond Meat (BYND US) shares jump 8.9% premarket following a CNBC report that Yum! Brands’ KFC will launch fried chicken made with the company’s meat substitute. Recent selloff in Pinterest (PINS US) shares presents an attractive risk/reward, with opportunities for the social media company largely unchanged, Piper Sandler writes in note as it upgrades to overweight. Stock gains 2.3% in premarket trading. Senseonics Holdings (SENS US) shares rise 15% premarket after the medical technology company said it expects a U.S. Food and Drug Administration decision in weeks on an updated diabetes- monitoring system. MillerKnoll (MLKN US) shares were down 3.1% in postmarket trading Tuesday after reporting fiscal 2Q top and bottom line results that missed analysts’ estimates. Annexon (ANNX US) was down 23% postmarket Tuesday after results were released from an experimental therapy for a fatal movement disorder called Huntington’s disease. Three patients in the 28- person trial discontinued treatment due to drug-related side- effects. Wejo Group (WEJO US) shares are up 34% premarket after the company said it’s developing the Wejo Neural Edge platform to enable intelligent handling of data from vehicles at scale. Smart Global (SGH US) falls 6% postmarket Tuesday after the computing memory maker forecast earnings per share for the second quarter. The low end of that forecast missed the average analyst estimate. Beyond Meat (BYND) shares surge premarket after CNBC KFC launch report UBS cut the recommendation on Adobe Inc. (ADBE US) to neutral from buy, citing concerns over the software company’s 2022 growth prospects. Shares down 2% in premarket trading. Oncternal Therapeutics (ONCT US) shares climb 5.1% premarket after saying it reached consensus with the FDA on the design and major details of the phase 3 superiority study ZILO-301 to treat mantle cell lymphoma. In Europe, the energy, chemicals and car industries led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 0.2% to near an all-time high set on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 rises as much as 0.6%, DAX outperforms. FTSE 100 lags but rises off the lows to trade up 0.2%. Nestle dropped 2.4%, slipping from a record, after Jefferies cut the Swiss food giant to underperform. Utilities were the worst-performing sector in Europe on Wednesday as cyclical areas of the market are favored over defensives, while Uniper and Fortum fall following news of a loan agreement.  Other decliners include RWE (-2.4%), Endesa (2.1%), Verbund (-1.3%), NatGrid (-1.2%), Centrica (-1.2%). Earlier in the session, technology shares led a decline in Asian equity markets, with investors concerned about the prospects of higher interest rates and Tencent’s continued sale of assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.6%, the most in two weeks, dragged down by Tencent and Meituan. The rout in U.S. tech spilled over to Asia, where the Hang Seng Tech Index plunged 4.6%, the most since July, following Tencent’s stake cut in Singapore’s Sea. Declines in tech and other sectors in Hong Kong widened after the city tightened rules to curb the spread of the omicron variant. Most Asian indexes fell on Wednesday, with Japan an exception among major markets as automakers offered support. The outlook for tighter monetary policy in the U.S. and higher Treasury yields weighed on the region’s technology shares, prompting a rotation from growth to value stocks.   Read: China Tech Selloff Deepens as Tencent Sale Spooks Traders Asian equities have underperformed U.S. and European peers amid slower recoveries and vaccination rates in the past year. With omicron rapidly gaining a foothold in Asia, there is a risk of “any further restriction measures, which could cloud the services sector outlook, along with disruption to supply chains,” said Jun Rong Yeap, a strategist at IG Asia Pte.  Philippine stocks gained as trading resumed following a one-day halt due to a systems glitch. North Korea appeared to have launched its first ballistic missile in about two months, just days after leader Kim Jong Un indicated that returning to stalled nuclear talks with the U.S. was a low priority for him in the coming year. India’s key equity gauges posted their longest run of advances in more than two moths, driven by a rally in financial stocks on hopes of revival in lending on the back of capex spending in the country. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.6% to 60,223.15 in Mumbai, its highest since Nov. 16, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.7%. Both benchmarks stretched their winning run to a fourth day, the longest since Oct. 18. All but six of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. climbed, led by a gauge of banking firms. “I believe from an uncertain, volatile environment, the Nifty is now headed for a directional move,” Sahaj Agrawal, a head of derivative research at Kotak Securities, writes in a note. The Nifty 50 crossed a significant barrier of the 17,800 level and is now expected to trade at 19,000-19,500 level in the medium term, Agrawal added. HDFC Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 2.4%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex, 18 rose, while 12 fell In FX, Bloomberg Dollar Spot index slpped 0.2% back toward Tuesday’s lows, falling as the greenback was weaker against most of its Group-of-10 peers, SEK and JPY are the best performers in G-10, CAD underperforms. Scandinavian currencies and the yen led gains, though most G-10 currencies were trading in narrow ranges. Australia’s dollar reversed an Asia-session loss in European trading. The yen rebounded from a five-year low as investors trimmed short positions on the haven currency and amid a decline in Asian stock markets. Treasuries were generally flat in overnight trading, with the curve flatter into early U.S. session as long-end outperforms, partially unwinding a two-day selloff to start the year with Tuesday witnessing a late block sale in ultra-bond futures. 10-year yields traded as high as 1.650% ahead of the US open after being mostly flat around 1.645%; yields were richer by up to 2bp across long-end of the curve while little change from front-end out to belly, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 0.5bp and 1.8bp; gilts outperformed in the sector by half basis point. Focus expected to continue on IG issuance, which has impacted the market in the past couple of days, and in U.S. afternoon session FOMC minutes will be released. IG dollar issuance slate includes EIB $5B 5-year SOFR and Reliance Ind. 10Y/30Y/40Y; thirteen borrowers priced $23.1b across 30 tranches Tuesday, making it the largest single day volume for U.S. high-grade corporate bonds since first week of September. European peripheral spreads widen to core. 30y Italy lags peers, widening ~2bps to Germany with order books above EU43b at the long 30y syndication. Ten-year yields shot up 8bps in New Zealand as its markets reopened following the New Year holiday. Aussie yields advanced 4bps. A 10-year sale in Japan drew a bid-cover ratio of 3.46. In commodities, crude futures were range-bound with WTI near just below $77, Brent nearer $80 after OPEC+ agreed to revive more halted production as the outlook for global oil markets improved, with demand largely withstanding the new coronavirus variant. Spot gold puts in a small upside move out of Asia’s tight range to trade near $1,820/oz. Base metals are mixed. LME nickel lags, dropping over 2%; LME aluminum and lead are up ~0.8%.  Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the December services and composite PMIs from the Euro Area, Italy, France, Germany and the US. On top of that, there’s the ADP’s December report of private payrolls from the US, the preliminary December CPI report from Italy, and December’s consumer confidence reading from France. Separately from the Federal Reserve, we’ll get the minutes of the December FOMC meeting. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,783.25 MXAP down 0.4% to 193.71 MXAPJ down 0.9% to 626.67 Nikkei up 0.1% to 29,332.16 Topix up 0.4% to 2,039.27 Hang Seng Index down 1.6% to 22,907.25 Shanghai Composite down 1.0% to 3,595.18 Sensex up 0.7% to 60,300.47 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,565.85 Kospi down 1.2% to 2,953.97 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 494.52 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.09% Euro up 0.2% to $1.1304 Brent Futures down 0.4% to $79.72/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,819.73 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.13% to 96.13 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The U.S. yield curve’s most dramatic steepening in more than three months has little to do with traders turning more optimistic on the economy or betting on a more aggressive timetable for raising interest rates The surge in euro-area inflation that surprised policy makers in recent months is close to its peak, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau Some Bank of Japan officials say it’s likely the central bank will discuss the possible ditching of a long-held view that price risks are mainly on the downward side at a policy meeting this month, according to people familiar with the matter Turkish authorities are keeping tabs on investors who are buying large amounts of foreign currency and asked banks to deter their clients from using the spot market for hedging-related trades as they struggle to contain the lira’s slide Italy is trying to lock in historically low financing costs at the start of a year where inflationary and political pressures could spell an end to super easy borrowing conditions North Korea appears to have launched its first ballistic missile in about two months, after leader Kim Jong Un indicated he was more interested in bolstering his arsenal than returning to stalled nuclear talks with the U.S. A More detailed breakdown of overnight news from Newsquawk Asia-Pac equities traded mostly in the red following the mixed handover from Wall Street, where the US majors maintained a cyclical bias and the NDX bore the brunt of another sizeable Treasury curve bear-steepener. Overnight, US equity futures resumed trade with mild losses and have since been subdued, with participants now gearing up for the FOMC minutes (full Newsquawk preview available in the Research Suite) ahead of Friday’s US jobs report and several scheduled Fed speakers. In APAC, the ASX 200 (-0.3%) was pressured by its tech sector, although the upside in financials cushioned some losses. The Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) was kept afloat by the recent JPY weakness, whilst Sony Group rose some 4% after its chairman announced EV ambitions. The KOSPI (-1.2%) was dealt a blow as North Korea fired a projectile that appeared to be a ballistic missile, but this landed outside of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The Hang Seng (-1.6%) saw its losses accelerate with the Hang Seng Tech Index tumbling over 4% as the sector tackled headwinds from Wall Street alongside domestic crackdowns. China Huarong Asset Management slumped over 50% as it resumed trade following a nine-month halt after its financial failure. The Shanghai Comp. (-1.0%) conformed to the mostly negative tone after again seeing a hefty liquidity drain by the PBoC. In the debt complex, the US T-note futures held a mild upside bias since the resumption of trade, and the US curve was somewhat steady. Participants also highlighted large short-covering heading into yesterday’s US close ahead of the FOMC minutes. Top Asian News Asian Stocks Slide as Surging Yields Squeeze Technology Sector China’s Growth Forecast Cut by CICC Amid Covid Outbreaks BOJ Is Said to Discuss Changing Long-Held View on Price Risks Gold Holds Gain With Fed Rate Hikes and Treasury Yields in Focus European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.1%) trade mixed in what has been a relatively quiet session thus far with the final readings of Eurozone services and composite PMIs providing little in the way of fresh impetus for prices. The handover from the APAC region was predominantly a soft one with Chinese bourses lagging once again with the Hang Seng Tech Index tumbling over 4% as the sector tackled headwinds from Wall Street alongside domestic crackdowns. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Comp. (-1%) conformed to the mostly negative tone after again seeing a hefty liquidity drain by the PBoC. Stateside, the ES and RTY are flat whilst the NQ lags once again after yesterday bearing the brunt of another sizeable treasury curve bear-steepener. In terms of house views, analysts at Barclays expect “2022 to be a more normal yet positive year for equities, looking for high single-digit upside and a broader leadership”. Barclays adds that it remains “pro-cyclical (Industrials, Autos, Leisure, reopening plays and Energy OW), and prefer Value to Growth”. Elsewhere, analysts at Citi stated that “monetary tightening may push up longer-dated nominal/real bond yields, threatening highly rated sectors such as IT or Luxury Goods. Alternatively, higher yields could help traditional value trades such as UK equities and Pan-European Financials”. Sectors in Europe are mostly higher, with auto names leading as Renault (+3.4%) sits at the top of the CAC, whilst Stellantis (+0.6%) has seen some support following the announcement that it is planning for a full battery-electric portfolio by 2028. Elsewhere, support has also been seen for Chemicals, Oil & Gas and Banking names with the latter continuing to be supported by the current favourable yield environment. To the downside, Food and Beverage is the clear laggard amid losses in Nestle (-2.6%) following a broker downgrade at Jefferies. Ocado (+5.5%) sits at the top of the Stoxx 600 after being upgraded to buy at Berenberg with analysts expecting the Co. to sign further deals with new and existing grocery e-commerce partners this year. Finally, Uniper (-2.4%) sits near the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after securing credit facilities totalling EUR 10bln from Fortum and KfW. Top European News U.K. Weighs Dropping Covid Test Mandate for Arriving Travelers German Energy Giant Uniper Gets $11 Billion for Margin Calls European Gas Extends Rally as Russian Shipments Remain Curbed Italian Inflation Hits Highest in More Than a Decade on Energy In FX, notwithstanding Tuesday’s somewhat mixed US manufacturing ISM survey and relatively hawkish remarks from Fed’s Kashkari, the week (and year) in terms of data and events really begins today with the release of ADP as a guide for NFP and minutes of the December FOMC that confirmed a faster pace of tapering and more hawkish dot plots. As such, it may not be surprising to see the Buck meandering broadly and index settling into a range inside yesterday’s parameters with less impetus from Treasuries that have flipped from a severe if not extreme bear-steepening incline. Looking at DXY price action in more detail, 96.337 marks the top and 96.053 the bottom at present, and from a purely technical perspective, 96.098 remains significant as a key Fib retracement level. JPY/EUR/AUD/GBP/NZD - All taking advantage of the aforementioned Greenback fade, and with the Yen more eager than others to claw back lost ground given recent underperformance. Hence, Usd/Jpy has retreated further from multi-year highs and through 116.00 to expose more downside potential irrespective of latest reports via newswire sources suggesting the BoJ is expected to slightly revise higher its inflation forecast for the next fiscal year and downgrade the GDP outlook for the year ending in March. Similarly, the Euro is having another look above 1.1300 even though EZ services and composite PMIs were mostly below consensus or preliminary readings and German new car registrations fell sharply, while the Aussie is retesting resistance around 0.7250 and its 50 DMA with some assistance from firm copper prices, Cable remains underpinned near 1.3550 and the 100 DMA and the Kiwi is holding mainly above 0.6800 in the face of stronger Aud/Nzd headwinds. Indeed, the cross is approaching 1.0650 in contrast to Eur/Gbp that is showing signs of changing course following several bounces off circa 0.8333 that equates to 1.2000 as a reciprocal. CHF/CAD - The Franc and Loonie appear a bit less eager to pounce on their US peer’s retrenchment, as the former pivots 0.9150 and latter straddles 1.2700 amidst a downturn in crude pre-Canadian building permits and new house prices. SCANDI/EM - Little sign of any fallout from a slowdown in Sweden’s services PMI as overall risk sentiment remains supportive for the Sek either side of 10.2600 vs the Eur, but the Nok is veering back down towards 10.0000 in line with slippage in Brent from Usd 80+/brl peaks reached on Tuesday. Elsewhere, the Zar is shrugging off a sub-50 SA PMI as Gold strengthens its grip on the Usd 1800/oz handle and the Cnh/Cny are still underpinned after another PBoC liquidity drain and firmer than previous midpoint fix on hopes that cash injections might be forthcoming through open market operations into the banking system from the second half of January to meet rising demand for cash, according to China's Securities Journal. Conversely, the Try has not derived any real comfort from comments by Turkey’s Finance Minister underscoring its shift away from orthodox policies, or insistence that budget discipline will not be compromised. In commodities, crude benchmarks are currently little changed but have been somewhat choppy within a range shy of USD 1/bbl in European hours, in-spite of limited fresh newsflow occurring. For reference, WTI and Brent reside within USD 77.26-76.53/bbl and USD 80.25-79.56/bbl parameters respectively. Updates for the complex so far include Cascade data reporting that gas flows via the Russian Yamal-Europe pipeline in an eastward direction have reduced. As a reminder, the pipeline drew scrutiny in the run up to the holiday period given reverse mode action, an undertaking the Kremlin described as ‘operational’ and due to a lack of requests being placed. Separately, last nights private inventories were a larger than expected draw, however, the internals all printed builds which surpassed expectations. Today’s EIA release is similar expected to show a headline draw and builds amongst the internals. Elsewhere, and more broadly, geopolitics remain in focus with Reuters sources reporting that a rocket attack has hit a military base in proximity to the Baghdad airport which hosts US forces. Moving to metals, spot gold and silver are once again fairly contained though the yellow metal retains the upside it derived around this point yesterday, hovering just below the USD 1820/oz mark. US Event Calendar 7am: Dec. MBA Mortgage Applications -5.6%, prior -0.6% 8:15am: Dec. ADP Employment Change, est. 410,000, prior 534,000 9:45am: Dec. Markit US Composite PMI, prior 56.9 9:45am: Dec. Markit US Services PMI, est. 57.5, prior 57.5 2pm: Dec. FOMC Meeting Minutes DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap As you may have seen from my CoTD yesterday all I got for Xmas this year was Omicron, alongside my wife and two of our three kids (we didn’t test Bronte). On Xmas Day I was cooking a late Xmas dinner and I suddenly started to have a slightly lumpy throat and felt a bit tired. Given I’d had a couple of glasses of red wine I thought it might be a case of Bordeaux-2015. However a LFT and PCR test the next day confirmed Covid-19. I had a couple of days of being a bit tired, sneezing and being sniffly. After that I was 100% physically (outside a of bad back, knee and shoulder but I can’t blame that on covid) but am still sniffly today. I’m also still testing positive on a LFT even if I’m out of isolation which tells me testing to get out of isolation early only likely works if you’re completely asymptomatic. My wife was similar to me symptom wise. Maybe slightly worse but she gets flu badly when it arrives and this was nothing like that. The two kids had no real symptoms unless being extremely annoying is one. Indeed spending 10 days cooped up with them in very wet conditions (ie garden activity limited) was very challenging. Although I came out of isolation straight to my home office that was still a very welcome change of scenery yesterday. The covid numbers are absolutely incredible and beyond my wildest imagination a month ago. Yesterday the UK reported c.219k new cases, France c.272k and the US 1.08 million. While these are alarming numbers it’s equally impressive that where the data is available, patients on mechanical ventilation have hardly budged and hospitalisations, while rising, are so far a decent level below precious peaks. Omicron has seen big enough case numbers now for long enough that even though we’ve had another big boost in cases these past few days, there’s nothing to suggest that the central thesis shouldn’t be anything other than a major decoupling between cases and fatalities. See the chart immediately below of global cases for the exponential recent rise but the still subdued levels of deaths. Clearly there is a lag but enough time has passed that suggests the decoupling will continue to be sizeable. It seems the main problem over the next few weeks is the huge number of people self isolating as the variant rips through populations. This will massively burden health services and likely various other industries. However hopefully this latest wave can accelerate the end game for the pandemic and move us towards endemicity faster. Famous last words perhaps but this variant is likely milder, is outcompeting all the others, and our defences are much, much better than they have been (vaccines, immunity, boosters, other therapeutic treatments). Indeed, President Biden directed his team to double the amount of Pfizer’s anti-covid pill Paxlovid they order; he called the pill a game changer. So a difficult few weeks ahead undoubtedly but hopefully light at the end of the tunnel for many countries. Prime Minister Boris Johnson noted yesterday that Britain can ride out the current Omicron wave without implementing any stricter measures, suggesting that learning to live with the virus is becoming the official policy stance in the UK. The head scratcher is what countries with zero-covid strategies will do faced with the current set up. If we’ve learnt anything from the last two years of covid it is that there is almost no way of avoiding it. Will a milder variant change such a stance? Markets seem to have started the year with covid concerns on the back burner as day 2 of 2022 was a lighter version of the buoyant day 1 even if US equities dipped a little led by a big under-performance from the NASDAQ (-1.33%), as tech stocks got hit by higher discount rates with the long end continuing to sell off to start the year. Elsewhere the Dow Jones (+0.59%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.82%) both climbed to new records, with cyclical sectors generally outperforming once again. Interestingly the STOXX Travel & Leisure index rose a further +3.11% yesterday, having already surpassed its pre-Omicron level. As discussed the notable exception to yesterday’s rally were tech stocks, with a number of megacap tech stocks significantly underperforming amidst a continued rise in Treasury yields, and the rotation towards cyclical stocks as investors take the message we’ll be living with rather than attempting to defeat Covid. The weakness among that group meant that the FANG+ index fell -1.68% yesterday, with every one of the 10 companies in the index moving lower, and that weakness in turn meant that the S&P 500 (-0.06%) came slightly off its record high from the previous session. Showing the tech imbalance though was the fact that the equal weight S&P 500 was +0.82% and 335 of the index rose on the day. So it was a reflation day overall. Staying with the theme, the significant rise in treasury yields we saw on Monday extended further yesterday, with the 10yr yield up another +1.9bps to 1.65%. That means the 10yr yield is up by +13.7bps over the last 2 sessions, marking its biggest increase over 2 consecutive sessions since last September. Those moves have also coincided with a notable steepening in the yield curve, which is good news if you value it as a recessionary indicator, with the 2s10s curve +11.3bps to +88.7bps over the last 2 sessions, again marking its biggest 2-day steepening since last September Those moves higher for Treasury yields were entirely driven by a rise in real yields, with the 10yr real yield moving back above the -1% mark. Conversely, inflation breakevens fell back across the board, with the 10yr breakeven declining more than -7.0bps from an intraday peak of 2.67%, the highest level in more than six weeks, which tempered some of the increase in nominal yields. The decline in breakevens was aided by the release of the ISM manufacturing reading for December, since the prices paid reading fell to 68.2, some way beneath the 79.3 reading that the consensus had been expecting. In fact, that’s the biggest monthly drop in the prices paid measure in over a decade, and leaves it at its lowest level since November 2020. Otherwise, the headline reading did disappoint relative to the consensus at 58.7 (vs. 60.0 expected), but the employment component was above expectations at 54.2 (vs. 53.6 expected), which is its highest level in 8 months and some promising news ahead of this Friday’s jobs report. Staying with US employment, the number of US job openings fell to 10.562m in November (vs. 11.079m expected), but the number of people quitting their job hit a record high of 4.5m. That pushed the quits rate back to its record of 3.0% and just shows that the labour market continues to remain very tight with employees struggling to hire the staff needed. This has been our favourite indicator of the labour market over the last few quarters and it continues to keep to the same trend. Back to bonds and Europe saw a much more subdued movement in sovereign bond yields, although gilts were the exception as the 10yr yield surged +11.7bps as it caught up following the previous day’s public holiday in the UK. Elsewhere however, yields on bunds (-0.2bps), OATs (-1.1bps) and BTPs (+0.9bps) all saw fairly modest moves. Also of interest ahead of tonight’s Fed minutes, there was a story from the Wall Street Journal late yesterday that said Fed officials are considering whether to reduce their bond holdings, and thus beginning QT, in short order. Last cycle, the Fed kept the size of its balance sheet flat for three years after the end of QE by reinvesting maturing proceeds before starting QT. This iteration of QE is set to end in March, so any move towards balance sheet rolloff would be a much quicker tightening than last cycle, which the article suggested was a real possibility. As this cycle has taught us time and again, it is moving much faster than historical precedent, so don’t rely on prior timelines. Balance sheet policy and the timing of any QT will be a major focus in tonight’s minutes, along with any signals for the timing of liftoff and path of subsequent rate hikes. Overnight in Asia markets are trading mostly lower with the KOSPI (-1.45%), Hang Seng (-0.85%), Shanghai Composite (-0.81%) and CSI (-0.67%) dragged down largely by IT stocks while the Nikkei (+0.07%) is holding up better. In China, Tencent cut its stake in a Singapore based company yesterday by selling $ 4 billion worth shares amidst China's regulatory crackdown with investors concerned they will do more. This has helped push the Hang Seng Tech Index towards its lowest close since its inception in July 2020 with Tencent and companies it invested in losing heavily. Moving on, Japan is bringing forward booster doses for the elderly while maintaining border controls in an effort to contain Omicron. Futures are indicating a weaker start in DM markets with the S&P 500 (-0.25%) and DAX (-0.11%) both tracking their Asian peers. Oil prices continued their ascent yesterday, with Brent Crude (+1.20%) hitting its highest level since the Omicron variant first emerged on the scene. Those moves came as the OPEC+ group agreed that they would go ahead with the increase in output in February of 400k barrels per day. And the strength we saw in commodities more broadly last year has also continued to persist into 2022, with copper prices (+1.12%) hitting a 2-month high, whilst soybean prices (+2.49%) hit a 4-month high. Looking at yesterday’s other data, German unemployment fell by -23k in December (vs. -15k expected), leaving the level of unemployment at a post-pandemic low of 2.405m in December. Finally, the preliminary French CPI reading for December came in slightly beneath expectations on the EU-harmomised measure, at 3.4% (vs. 3.5% expected). To the day ahead now, and data releases include the December services and composite PMIs from the Euro Area, Italy, France, Germany and the US. On top of that, there’s the ADP’s December report of private payrolls from the US, the preliminary December CPI report from Italy, and December’s consumer confidence reading from France. Separately from the Federal Reserve, we’ll get the minutes of the December FOMC meeting. Tyler Durden Wed, 01/05/2022 - 08:07.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJan 5th, 2022

Futures Surge To A Record Above 4,800 As Euphoria Grips Global Markets

Futures Surge To A Record Above 4,800 As Euphoria Grips Global Markets US stock futures, European bourses and Asian markets all rose, extending the blistering start to 2022 (just as Goldman predicted in its $125 billion January inflow case), with more strategists cementing their bullish projections as investors shrugged off worries Omicron could choke the global economic recovery as data on U.S. manufacturing and job openings due today will further show the world’s largest economy is resilient against the spread of omicron. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4% and contracts on the S&P 500 climbed 0.3% to a new all time high above 4,800 after the underlying gauge closed at a record on Monday. European stocks also gained. Waning demand for haven assets pushed the yen to a five-year low, while oil fluctuated ahead of an OPEC+ meeting. The dollar and U.S. treasury yields extended their surge - with the 10Y last yielding 1.6630% - after Monday’s worst start to a year since 2009. JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists advised staying bullish on global stocks, saying positive catalysts are not exhausted, while Credit Suisse reiterated a bullish view on U.S. stocks. In premarket trading, Apple shares rose as much as 0.5%, putting the iPhone maker on track to reclaim $3 trillion in market cap as appetite for risk returns. Meanwhile, Jowell Global plunged 11% after a volatile trading session for the Chinese e-commerce stock on Monday that saw it plunge 59%. Travel stocks rallied for a second day even as the U.S. reported a record of over 1 million Covid cases, amid growing evidence that the omicron variant leads to milder infections. The S&P Supercomposite Airlines Index rose 3.3% Monday to the highest since Nov. 24 and appears set for further gains Tuesday. Most airline companies rose about 1% in premarket trading, while cruise lines were also higher with Carnival +1.8%, Royal Caribbean +1%, Norwegian +1.4%. General Electric rose after the stock was raised to outperform at Credit Suisse and Hewlett Packard Enterprise climbed with an overweight rating from Barclays. Here are some other notable pre-market movers today: Coca-Cola (KO US) sits in a stronger position following a transition year in 2021, Guggenheim Securities writes in note upgrading to buy after almost exactly a year with a neutral stance. Shares up 1% in premarket. Stryker (SYK US) and Globus Medical (GMED US) both upgraded to overweight at Piper Sandler, which says in a note that the two stocks have momentum to continue delivering above-average share performance this year. Stryker up 1.4% premarket. Tiny U.S. biotech stocks gain in high premarket volume amid a broader return of risk appetite and following positive updates on studies. Oragenics (OGEN US) +23%, Indaptus Therapeutics (INDP US) +7%. Intra-Cellular Therapies (ITCI US) falls 7% in premarket after launching a $400 million share sale. AFC Gamma (AFCG US) falls 11% premarket after launching a stock offering. Core & Main (CNM US) dropped 7.6% postmarket after holders offered a stake. In Europe, the Euro STOXX 600 gained as much as 0.9% in early trading, pushing beyond its all-time high of 489.99 points scaled a day earlier, with the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 up over 1.25%. Travel and leisure stocks jumped 2.7%, with Ryanair adding 8% and British Airways-owner IAG gaining over 9%, reflecting expectations Omicron's impact on the industry would be less severe than initially feared. Euro Stoxx 50 added as much as 1% with travel, autos and banks the best performing sectors so far. Investors have set aside worries about the highly infectious omicron variant as they continue to trade on the economic recovery from the pandemic which may soon be ending thanks to Omicron which could make covid endemic. “Globally, there is a lot of news regarding the rising omicron cases, but there is also a lot of news that the cases are not as deadly as the previous variants of Covid,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note. “And investors prefer focusing on a glass half full rather than a glass half empty at the start of the year.” "The chief reason behind the return of investor confidence is Omicron," said Jeffrey Halley, an analyst at Oanda. Yes, the virus variant is much more contagious, but it is not leading to a proportionally larger number of hospital admissions... (so) it won't stop the global economic recovery." This, incidentally, is precisely what we said over a month ago. That said, markets anticipate an uptick in volatility as they navigate through the omicron variant, supply-chain disruptions and more central banks winding back pandemic stimulus. More than one million people in the U.S. were diagnosed with Covid-19 on Monday, a new global daily record, and yet markets barely winced. Asian stocks gained behind rallies in Japan and Australia on their first trading sessions of 2022, with much of the region tracking the strong performance in the U.S. as investors maintained growth optimism despite a worsening pandemic.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1%, the most in two weeks, lifted by technology and financial shares. Metals and mining stocks gave the Australian benchmark gauge a boost, while a weaker yen allowed exporters to provide support for Japan’s Topix. Chinese stocks bucked the regional trend to suffer their weakest start to a year since 2019. The CSI 300 Index fell 0.5% as some investors took profit and assessed developments in the property sector while renewable energy and health-care firms paced declines. Also souring the mood, the People Bank of China cut its net injection of short-term cash to the markets, prompting concerns over support for the financial system. Tuesday’s activities in Asia also showed some traders setting aside their worries over the rapid spread of omicron strain for now to bet on resilience in the global economy.  While the omicron variant will be a negative factor in the short term, Chinese equities will likely help drive emerging markets higher in 2022 as monetary and fiscal stimulus spur economic growth, said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.  The Philippine Stock Exchange had to cancel trading following a system glitch, according to a statement by bourse President Ramon Monzon Japanese equities rose in their first trading session of the year, helped by the yen’s drop to a five-year low and a tailwind from U.S. peers’ climb to fresh all-time highs. Electronics and auto makers were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which gained 1.9%, the most in four weeks. All industry groups advanced except papermakers and energy explorers. Tokyo Electron and Advantest were the largest contributors to a 1.8% rise in the Nikkei 225.  The S&P 500 rose to a record and Treasury yields climbed Monday as traders braced for the start of a potentially volatile year and three expected rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The White House is likely to nominate economist Philip Jefferson for a seat on the Fed board of governors, according to people familiar with the matter. “It’s gradually coming to light who will be the new members of the FRB and it looks like they will be those with quite a dovish stance, which very supportive factor for stocks,” said Hiroshi Matsumoto, senior client portfolio manager at Pictet Asset Management in Tokyo.  Australian stocks jumped themost in over a year, with fresh records in sight. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 2% to 7,589.80, marking its best session since October 2020. The benchmark closed about 40 points away from the all-time high it reached in August as all sectors gained. Pilbara Minerals was among the top performers, jumping to a record. St. Barbara was among the worst performers after giving an update on its Simberi mine. In New Zealand, the market was closed for a holiday. India’s Sensex rallied for a third day as the outlook for lenders improved on the back of a continued recovery in the economy.  The S&P BSE Sensex rose 1.1% to 59,855.93 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index rallied 1%. All but three of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. climbed, led by a gauge of power companies. The S&P BSE Bankex added 1.3% to stretch its rally to a fourth day, its longest streak of gains since Oct. 26.   Financial stocks in India offer an attractive entry point after foreign funds sold more than $3 billion of sector stocks over Nov.-Dec., Jefferies analyst Prakhar Sharma wrote in a note. He expects improved growth, stable asset quality and manageable omicron impact to aid a re-rating of the sector. “Markets are currently following their global counterparts while the domestic factors are showing mixed indications,” Religare Broking analyst Ajit Mishra said in a note.  Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain on Tuesday, increasing 2.2%. Out of 30 shares in the index, 25 rose and five fell. In FX, Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index trades notably higher for the second day in a row, with AUD and CHF top the G-10 leader board, while the JPY lags pushing through Asia’s worst levels near 116.31/USD.  The euro was confined in a narrow range around $1.13 while the greenback weakened versus all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen and risk-sensitive currencies were the best performers. The pound edged higher, continuing its ascent over the holiday period that was based on firmer global risk sentiment and bets the U.K. economy won’t be derailed by omicron. Gilts slumped as traders caught up with Monday’s jump in U.S. and euro-area yields after the U.K. was closed for a holiday. Australia’s government bonds and the nation’s currency both rose amid speculation the global economic recovery will weather the surge in omicron infections. New Zealand’s markets remained shut for New Year holidays. Purchasing managers’ index for the Australia’s manufacturing sector declined for the first time in four months in December, Markit data showed. The yen dropped to a five-year, with the USDJPY rising above 116 as speculation the global economic recovery will weather omicron saps demand for haven assets. Japanese bonds declined before debt auctions later this week. Options pricing suggests there may be more gains for the dollar in a rally against the yen that’s already taken it to the strongest since 2017. In rates, 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 1.66% after surging 12 basis points on Monday, the biggest jump to start a year since 2009. The two-year rate was at 0.77%. Treasury yields were cheaper by up to 1.5bp across front- and belly of the curve with long-end yields slightly richer vs. Monday close. IG dollar issuance includes a number of bank names headed by NAB 5-part offering. Three-month dollar Libor +0.69bp at 0.21600%. Bunds richen 1.5bps across the belly with a mixed peripheral complex with expectations for a busy issuance slate ahead. Gilts underperform, playing catch up to Monday’s move in bunds and treasuries, cheapening as much as 10bps across the curve with 10s near 1.07%. Looking beyond the current risk-on momentum, traders expect Fed tightening to further boost yields and reset equity valuations. This week’s U.S. December payroll data and minutes from the Fed’s meeting last month may throw more light on the pace of such shift. “We expect 2022 to be far more challenging from an investment perspective,” Heather Wald, vice president at Bel Air Investment Advisors, said in an emailed note. “Rarely has a market delivered three consecutive years of double-digit returns, as we have seen from 2019-2021. With the Federal Reserve set to accelerate tightening and a fairly valued stock market, we anticipate more muted returns for the S&P next year but still expect equities to remain attractive versus other liquid asset classes.” In commodities, crude futures flip a short-lived dip to rise ~0.7%. WTI trades near best levels of the session close to $76.70, Brent near $79.50 ahead of today’s OPEC+ gathering. Spot gold trades a tight range, holding above $1,800/oz. Base metals are mixed, LME copper underperforms. U.S. economic data slate includes the December ISM manufacturing survey, which will show the early impact of the variant on supply chains, while the JOLTS data will show the balance between job openings and unemployment numbers; also this week brings ADP employment change, durable goods orders and December jobs report. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,799 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 492.53 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.13% Euro little changed at $1.1307 MXAP up 0.9% to 194.72 MXAPJ up 0.6% to 633.00 Nikkei up 1.8% to 29,301.79 Topix up 1.9% to 2,030.22 Hang Seng Index little changed at 23,289.84 Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,632.33 Sensex up 1.1% to 59,815.19 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.9% to 7,589.76 Kospi little changed at 2,989.24 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $79.26/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,806.40 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.18 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Treasury traders are betting the rapid spread of omicron will increase inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy, rather than weaken them Global central banks are set to spend 2022 diverging, as some take on the menace of inflation and others stay focused on boosting economic growth French inflation stabilized in December, indicating price pressures may be near a peak in the euro area after surging on energy costs in the past few months OPEC and its allies are poised to revive more halted oil production when they meet on Tuesday after predicting a tighter outlook for global markets A more detailed breakdown of global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks eventually traded mixed on the first trading session of the year for most bourses, with the region catching some tailwinds from the positive Eurozone and US sessions on Monday. On Wall Street, the Nasdaq outpaced with gains of 1.2% as Apple became the first-ever public company to reach USD 3tln in market value, whilst Tesla shares were catapulted 13.5% after beating Q4 delivery expectations despite the chip shortage and in spite of last week's mass recall. US equity futures overnight resumed trade with a mild positive bias and thereafter drifted higher - with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Minutes, US labour market report and Fed speakers all on this week’s docket. The ASX 200 (+2.0%) saw gains across its Energy, Mining, Tech and Financial sectors. The Nikkei 225 (+1.8%) briefly dipped under 29k before rising to session highs – with Autos among the top gainers amid a similar performance Stateside, whilst the softer JPY underpinned the index. The KOSPI (U/C) was flat in early trade but thereafter swung between gains and losses. In China, the Shanghai Comp (-0.2%) gave up early gains on its first trading day of 2022 following a CNY 260bln daily liquidity drain by the PBoC, whilst reports also suggested that China is facing USD 708mln cash demand this month, +18% Y/Y according to calculations, amid maturing debt and seasonal demand for cash ahead of the Lunar New Year on 1st February. The Hang Seng (+0.1%) kicked off its second day of trade the year in the green after Monday’s losses. China Evergrande shares resumed trade with gains of 5% after it yesterday suspended its Hong Kong shares in a bid to raise cash and following the order to demolish 39 buildings. Meanwhile, Hong Kong-listed and US-blacklisted AI firm SenseTime shares rose another 20% to almost triple its IPO price. In fixed income, US 10yr Mar'22 futures saw some light buying in early trade, with some suggested regional Asia demand following the heavy cheapening on Monday, albeit this early mild upside faded. Top Asian News Amazon Plays Down Reports It’s Pulling Kindle From China H.K. Finds One Prelim. Local Case With Unknown Source: HK01 China High-Yield Dollar Bonds Fall 1-2 Cents; Developers Lead China South City USD Bonds Slump; Firm Denies Debt-Swap Report European equities trade on a firmer footing with the Stoxx 600 (+0.8%) once again at a record high. The FTSE 100 leads the charge within the region; however, this is largely on account of a catch-up play from yesterday’s bank holiday. Initially to the downside resided the SMI (+0.1%) as the only major bourse in the red amid losses in index-heavyweight Roche (-1.4%); however, this has abated modestly throughout the morning. The lead from the APAC region was a mixed one as the Nikkei 225 (+1.8%) benefited from a softer JPY, the ASX 200 (+1.95%) was lifted by gains in Energy, Mining, Tech and Financial sectors, whilst Chinese bourses (Hang Seng +0.1%, Shanghai Comp. -0.2%) were kept subdued by a PBoC liquidity drain and unable to benefit from an unexpected expansion in the December Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI. Stateside, futures are modestly firmer across the board (ES +0.4%, NQ +0.4%, RTY +0.5%) after yesterday’s session which was characterised by Nasdaq outperformance, +1.2%, as Apple became the first-ever public company to reach USD 3tln in market value, whilst Tesla shares were catapulted 13.5% after beating Q4 delivery expectations. In a recent note, analysts at JP Morgan stated they are of the view that there is further upside for stocks as the Omicron variant appears to be milder than previous strains and the impact on mobility is more manageable than previous ones. Furthermore, the bank suggests that there are signs that constraints in supply chains are passing their peak and power prices are easing. Sectors in Europe are mostly firmer with Travel & Leisure names clearly top of the pile UK as airline names benefit from ongoing optimism about the Omicron variant’s impact on mobility and a December passenger update from Wizz Air which has sent its shares higher by 10.1%. Of note for the European banks (which are also a notable gainer on the session), Citigroup is “overweight” on the sector for the upcoming year, citing profit growth, interest rate hikes and potential for capital returns. In terms of specific names, BNP Paribas, Lloyds and UBS were flagged as top picks. Elsewhere, other cyclically-led sectors such as Autos, Oil & Gas and Basic Resources are also trading on a firmer footing. To the downside, Healthcare names sit in the red amid aforementioned losses in Roche, whilst Sanofi (-0.7%) are also seen lower after flagging that Q4 2021 vaccine sales are expected to be lower on a Y/Y basis. Finally, Rolls-Royce (+3.6%) is seen higher on the session after concluding the sale of Bergen Engines. Top European News Italy Starts Search for New President With Draghi as Contender U.K. Mortgage Approvals Fall to 66,964 in Nov. Vs. Est. 66,000 Ukraine Says Russia Reinforced Military Units in Occupied Donbas European Gas Prices Jump a Second Day as Russian Shipments Drop In FX, the Dollar index looks comfortable enough above 96.000 within a 96.336-146 range after eclipsing yesterday’s best (96.328) marginally, but the technical backdrop remains less constructive given its failure to end last week (and 2021) above a key chart level at 96.098. Nevertheless, the most recent spike in US Treasury yields has given the Greenback sufficient impetus to claw back losses, and in DXY terms fresh incentive to rebound firmly or extend gains against funding currencies in particular ahead of the manufacturing ISM and the remainder of a hectic first week of the new year that culminates in NFP and a trio of scheduled Fed speakers, but also comprises minutes of the December FOMC taper and more hawkishly aligned tightening policy meeting. JPY/AUD - As noted above, low yielders are underperforming or lagging in the current environment, and the Yen is also succumbing to the increasingly divergent BoJ vs Fed trajectory that is exacerbating technical forces behind the rally in Usd/Jpy to new 5 year highs just shy of 115.90. Stops are said to have been triggered during the latest leg up and there is little of significance in terms of resistance ahead of 116.00, while option expiry interest is relatively light until 1.13 bn at the half round number above. Conversely, the Aussie has been boosted by higher coal prices overnight and an unexpected return to growth from contraction in China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI, with Aud/Usd trying to establish a base around 0.7200 in wake of an upward revision to the final manufacturing PMI. GBP/NZD/EUR/CHF/CAD - The Pound is next best major, but mainly due to Gilts playing catch-up following Monday’s UK Bank Holiday and only in part on the back of an upgrade to the final manufacturing PMI allied to better than forecast BoE data including consumer credit, mortgage lending and approvals. Cable is probing 1.3500 and Eur/Gbp is edging towards 0.8360 even though the Euro has regained some poise against the Buck to retest 1.1300 with some traction gleaned from stronger than anticipated German retail sales and jobs metrics. Back down under, the Kiwi is trying to keep tabs on 0.6800 in the face of Aud/Nzd headwinds as the cross climbs over 1.0600, while the Franc is holding above 0.9200 post-Swiss CPI that was close to consensus and the Loonie is meandering between 1.2755-23 parameters pre-Canadian PPI and Markit’s manufacturing PMI against the backdrop of firmer crude prices. In commodities, WTI and Brent are firmer this morning and have been grinding towards fresh highs throughout the European session after slightly choppy APAC trade; currently, the peaks are USD 76.82/bbl and USD 79.67/bbl respectively. Newsflow has been fairly slow throughout the morning with catch-up action occurring for participants. Today’s focal point for the space is very much the OPEC+ gathering; albeit, this is expected to result in a continuation of the existing quota adjustments of 400k BPD/month. Thus far, the JTC has reviewed market fundamentals and other developments determining that the Omicron variant’s impact is expected to be both mild and short-term. For reference, today’s timings are 12:00GMT/07:00EST for the JMMC and 13:00GMT/08:00EST for OPEC+ - though, as always with OPEC, these serve only as guidance. While the main decision is expected to be a straightforward one, there is the possibility that underproduction by certain members could cause some tension. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are contained with a modest positive-bias but are yet to stray too far from the unchanged mark with spot gold, for instance, in a sub-USD 10/oz range just above USD 1800/oz. Separately, coal futures were notable bid in China following reports that Indonesia, a large supplier to China, has banned exports for the month, given domestic power concerns. US Event Calendar 10am: Nov. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 11.1m, prior 11m 10am: Dec. ISM Employment, est. 53.6, prior 53.3 ISM New Orders, est. 60.4, prior 61.5 ISM Prices Paid, est. 79.2, prior 82.4 ISM Manufacturing, est. 60.0, prior 61.1         Tyler Durden Tue, 01/04/2022 - 07:59.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJan 4th, 2022

Stanphyl Capital December 2021 Commentary

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended December 2021, discussing the U.S. economic situation, and their long positions in NuScale Power, Volkswagen AG (OTCMKTS:VWAPY), and General Motors Company (NYSE:GM). Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Friends and Fellow Investors: Stanphyl Capital’s Performance For December 2021 the fund was up approximately 15.3% net of […] Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended December 2021, discussing the U.S. economic situation, and their long positions in NuScale Power, Volkswagen AG (OTCMKTS:VWAPY), and General Motors Company (NYSE:GM). if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Friends and Fellow Investors: Stanphyl Capital's Performance For December 2021 the fund was up approximately 15.3% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up 4.5% while the Russell 2000 was up 2.2%. For 2021 the fund was up 25.9% net while the S&P 500 was up 28.7% and the Russell 2000 was up 14.8%. Since inception on June 1, 2011 the fund is up 71.3% net while the S&P 500 is up 338.1% and the Russell 2000 is up 205.4%. Since inception the fund has compounded at 5.2% net annually vs 15.0% for the S&P 500 and 11.1% for the Russell 2000.  (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends. The fund’s performance results are approximate; investors will receive exact figures from the outside administrator within a week or two. Please note that individual partners’ returns will vary in accordance with their high-water marks.) In November & December the market’s sanitation department finally arrived to pick up some trash, and high on its list of non-recyclables (i.e., suitable for landfill only) was the ARKK ETF, a giant collection of bubble-stocks which we’ve been short for much of 2021 (and remain short in somewhat reduced—although still significant—size). Thank you, Crazy Crooked Cathie, for helping to give us a halfway-decent year. Also contributing a bit to this month’s gains was our short position in Tesla, which finally appears to be “losing the narrative” as an onslaught of great new EVs gains both market share and investor mindshare, while another Tesla headwind was the killing (for now, at least) of the anticipated extension of the U.S. EV tax credit, thanks to Manchin’s opposition to Biden’s spending boondoggle. (Please see my Twitter thread about why all EV credits are a massive waste of money relative to their immeasurably tiny effect on “climate change.”) On the long side, new to the fund this month is a position in NuScale Energy, a designer of safe, small modular nuclear reactors that’s going public via a SPAC with the ticker SV; more on that later in this letter. We’re Entering A Stagflationary Repeat Of The 1970s Meanwhile, I continue to believe we’re entering a stagflationary repeat of the 1970s, which is why we own gold and several deep-value stocks and remain short high-PE bubble-stocks such as Tesla and ARKK. Even if the failure (for now, anyway) of the “BBB Bill” removes some near-term inflationary pressure, this may be offset by Biden’s possible cancellation of $1 trillion in student debt and increasing demands for cost-of-living increase clauses from workers. (I suspect that the new Omicron COVID variant won’t change this outlook, as patients appear to get much less sick than they’d be under previous versions of the disease.) The Fed’s new slightly less dovish stance (i.e., printing tens of billions of dollars per month through March instead of June while predicting three tiny 2022 rate increases totaling less than 1%) is laughable relative to the rate of inflation, even if that inflation were to ease significantly in 2022 to the 4% range from the 6%+ we see now. Even at today’s absurdly low rates the interest on the nearly $30 trillion in federal debt costs around $400 billion a year. Does anyone seriously think this Fed has the stomach to face the political firestorm of Congress having to slash Medicare, the defense budget, etc. in order to pay the higher interest cost created by significantly raising those rates to a level commensurate with 4%+ inflation? Powell doesn’t have the guts for that, nor does anyone else in Washington; thus this Fed will be behind the inflation curve for at least a decade. Meanwhile the broad-based increases in the CPI, PPI and even the Fed’s nonsensical core PCE continue to indicate that this inflation is not “transitory.” (Nor is it restricted to the U.S; at 4.9%, the Euro Area recently reported its highest inflation rate since its inception, and German inflation is the highest since 1992.) Despite all this evidence, courtesy of Bank of America we can see that the majority of investors—perhaps conditioned by 40 years of disinflationary complacency (the average portfolio manager is only 44 years old)—still don’t believe that inflation is a problem (which is likely why gold has yet to take off): And courtesy of the latest University of Michigan survey, we can see that although short-term consumer inflation expectations have soared… that fear is just starting  to creep into longer-term expectations: Meanwhile, the similarities between the stagflationary early 1970s and “now” remain uncanny: What did the U.S. economic situation look like in 1973? Soaring energy costs Soaring fiscal deficits Soaring labor costs CPI >6% Stocks about to enter a bear market as inflation was about to crush PE ratios The price of gold about to soar What does the U.S. economic situation look like today? Soaring energy costs (as developed nations “go to war” on fossil fuels) Soaring fiscal deficits Soaring labor costs Low-cost China cut out of supply chains (an inflationary factor not found in the 1970s) CPI >6% Thus, just as in the 1970s, I believe stocks are entering a bear market as inflation crushes their PE ratios, while continuing deeply negative real interest rates will eventually cause the price of gold to climb. Meanwhile, equity indexes are so stretched that myriad exogenous events (both “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns”) could pop this market even independent of inflation or Fed actions. Courtesy of @MichaelAArouet & TopdownCharts we can see that the S&P 500’s CAPE real earnings yield is down to levels only seen before previous crashes… …while from CurrentMarketValuation.com we can see that the U.S. stock market’s valuation as a percentage of GDP (the so-called “Buffett Indicator”) is astoundingly high… …as is (courtesy of @ISABELNET_SA & @LanceRoberts)  the S&P 500’s ratio of price to sales: Long Positions Here then is some additional commentary on some of the fund’s positions; please note that we may add to or reduce these positions at any time… NuScale Power New to the fund this month is a long position in NuScale Power, which is going public in the first half of 2022 by merging into a SPAC with the (temporary) ticker SV. I believe that the world will soon acknowledge that the only practical way to decarbonize is via nuclear power, and NuScale designs small modular reactors (SMRs) using passive safety that have the only design (so far) approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This is a capex light company (NuScale provides only the engineering services), and although the first reactors in the pipeline won’t come online until the end of this decade, the cash flow begins much sooner as the company is paid as construction progresses. At a pro-forma enterprise value of just $2 billion with great strategic holders and (according to management) enough cash on hand to become cash flow positive, I believe this is an interesting speculation in a very “sexy” story, with the added advantage that pre-merger the price should have a floor of around $10 as that’s where holders are permitted to redeem their shares, thereby making this trade rather asymmetrical for at least the next few months. Have a look at the company presentation. Volkswagen We continue to own a long position in Volkswagen AG (via its VWAPY ADR, which represent “preference shares” that are identical to “ordinary” shares except they lack voting rights and thus sell at a discount), as the stock has been punished lately due to short-term chip shortages and short-term uncertainty regarding the future of its current CEO. However, Volkswagen controls a massive number of terrific brands whose EVs (several of which are more technologically advanced than Tesla’s) combine to outsell Tesla in Europe and by late 2022 should match Tesla’s EV sales in China. (Thanks to October’s introduction of the $25,000 ID.3 there, VW’s Q4 China EV sales will be at least 60% of Tesla’s.) In total, VW sells around 10 million cars a year (plus lots of trucks), vs. around 1 million a year for Tesla. Yet Tesla’s diluted market cap is over 9x VW’s, meaning that an investor pays over 90x as much for each Tesla sold as for each VW sold! And VW sells for less than 6x estimated 2022 earnings! General Motors We continue to own a long position in General Motors (GM), which currently sells at only around 8.5x 2022 earnings estimates. GM is doing all the right things in electric cars, autonomous driving (via its Cruise ownership) and software, yet it’s extremely cheap because, as with other established automakers, investors have (for now) forsaken it in favor of “electric car pure-plays,” a sector which has thus become the largest valuation bubble in history. You can read an outline of GM’s future plans (given on an investor day in early October) in this press release. And regarding “autonomy,” keep in mind that unlike Tesla, which sells a LiDAR-less fraud to rubes, Cruise is already running a fleet of fully autonomous cars in San Francisco; you can see many videos of this on its YouTube channel. I thus consider these positions (GM and VW) to be both “freestanding value stock buys” and “relative value paired trades” against our Tesla short. Updated on Jan 3, 2022, 1:37 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkJan 3rd, 2022

Tesla Will Recouple With Reality When The Bulls Least Expect It

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended December 31, 2021, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Tesla’s Absurd Diluted Market Cap We remain short the biggest bubble in modern stock market history, Tesla Inc. (TSLA), which has a completely absurd diluted market cap of almost […] Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended December 31, 2021, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get Our Activist Investing Case Study! Get the entire 10-part series on our in-depth study on activist investing in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or print it out to read anywhere! Sign up below! (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Tesla's Absurd Diluted Market Cap We remain short the biggest bubble in modern stock market history, Tesla Inc. (TSLA), which has a completely absurd diluted market cap of almost $1.2 trillion despite a steadily sliding share of the world’s EV market and a share of the overall auto market that’s only around 1.1% (yes, one POINT one percent). At some point when momentum-riding Tesla bulls (or, for that matter, bears) least expect it, TSLA will recouple with “reality,” and that’s why I continue to maintain a short position. So here’s “reality”… Tesla has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of electric car technology, while existing automakers—unlike Tesla­—have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably. Excluding sunsetting emission credit sales Tesla is barely profitable. Growth in sequential unit demand for Tesla’s cars is at a crawl relative to expectations. Elon Musk is a pathological liar who under the terms of his SEC settlement cannot deny having committed securities fraud. Many Tesla bulls sincerely believe that ten years from now the company will be twice the size of Volkswagen or Toyota, thereby selling around 21 million cars a year (up from the current one million). To illustrate how utterly clueless this is, going from a million cars a year today to 21 million in ten years means Tesla would have to add a brand new 500,000 car/year factory with sold out production EVERY single quarter for ten years! To do this even in twenty years would require adding a new factory with sold out production every six months, at which point Tesla would then be approximately twice the size of Toyota (current market cap: $257 billion) or Volkswagen (current market cap: $130 billion), making a Tesla twenty times its current size worth perhaps $500 billion in twenty years. If you discount that $500 billion back by 15% a year (which is likely a much smaller return than any Tesla bull expects) for twenty years, you get a net present value for Tesla stock of approximately $30 a share, down over 97% from 2021’s closing price. That’s why when idiot Tesla bulls look at the company’s current large trailing percentage growth from its recent tiny base and extrapolate that into the future they’re being, well… idiot Tesla bulls! Q3 Deliveries In October Tesla reported Q3 deliveries of 241,000 cars, a 40,000-unit gain over Q2 that’s a rounding error for an auto company trading at even one-tenth of Tesla’s valuation. (For Q4 the gain is expected to be another 45-50,000.) If in any quarter GM or VW or Toyota sold 2.04 million vehicles instead of 2 million or 1.96 million, no one would pay the slightest bit of attention to the difference. Seeing as Tesla is now being valued at over fourteen GMs, it’s time (as noted above) to start looking at its relatively tiny numerical sequential sales growth, rather than Wall Street’s sell-side hype of “percentage off a small base.” In other words, if you want to be valued at a giant multiple of “the big boys,” you should be treated as a big boy. Perhaps the biggest reason Tesla has recently been able to post marginally increasing sequential quarterly deliveries is because competitors’ production (and thus inventories) are at the lowest level in decades due to the massive chip shortage, thereby eliminating a number of “Tesla alternatives.” Meanwhile, Tesla is enjoying record production because Musk (a notorious “corner-cutter”) is apparently willing to substitute untested, non-auto-grade chips for the more durable chips he can’t get; please see my Twitter post about this. A favorite hype story from Tesla bulls has been “the China market” and its “record” number of 73,659 Q3 deliveries there. Let’s put this in perspective: this was only around 4000 more cars than in Q1 and only around 11,000 more than in Q2—again, these are “growth” rounding errors. (Thanks to drastically slashed production from chip-starved competitors, look for around 30,000 more in Q4.) And that “record” Q3 China quarter gave it just 1.5% of the overall passenger vehicle market and just 11% of the BEV market, and it had so much excess capacity that it exported tens of thousands of cars to Europe. Remember when Musk claimed that Tesla’s Chinese domestic demand alone would need multiple factories to satisfy? Ah, the good old days! Meanwhile, Tesla remains a lousy business. In its Q3 earnings report the company claimed it made around $1.3 billion in free cash flow (defined as operating cash flow less capex). However, this number appears to be entirely due to working capital adjustments and not from the business itself. Let me explain: Tesla claimed operating cash flow of around $3.2 billion for the quarter, but this came with the benefit of accounts payable increasing by $702 million, receivables declining by $167 million and accrued liabilities up by $665 million while (detrimentally) prepaid expenses increased by $144 million. Adjusting for that massive net working capital benefit, operating cash flow was only a bit over $1.8 billion and with capex at $1.8 billion it means Tesla’s Q3 free cash flow was essentially zero, and if you deduct stock comp (a non-cash item paid through share dilution) it was around negative $500 million. Also in its Q3 report Tesla claimed it made around $1.45 billion in net income after excluding $279 million of pure-profit emission credit sales (excluded because they’ll almost entirely disappear some time next year when other automakers will have enough EVs of their own), and after adding back a $50 million Bitcoin write-down. However, that earnings number also includes what I estimate to be Tesla’s usual $300 million or so in unsustainably low warranty provisioning, and after adjusting for that and assuming no other fraudulent accounting, Tesla only earned around $1.06/share, which annualizes to $4.24. An auto industry PE multiple of 10x would thus make TSLA worth around $42/share (admittedly, more than the “$0” I once expected), while a “growth multiple” of 20x would value it at $84, which is a 92% discount to December’s closing price of around $1057. And before you tell me that a 100% premium to the industry’s PE ratio isn’t enough, keep in mind that—as noted earlier—Tesla’s sequential unit growth is an auto industry rounding error. In fact, one could argue that Tesla’s multiple should carry a discount, considering the massive legal and financial liabilities continually generated by its pathologically lying CEO. Full Self Driving Meanwhile Tesla continues to sell (and book cash flow, if not accounting revenue from) its fraudulent & dangerous so-called “Full Self Driving.” In a sane regulatory environment Tesla having done this for five years now… …would be considered “consumer fraud,” and indeed the regulatory tide may finally be turning, as in August two U.S. Senators demanded an FTC investigation and in October the NHTSA appointed a harsh critic of this deadly product to advise on its regulation. (For all known Tesla deaths see here.) Are major write-downs and refunds on the way, killing the company’s slight “claimed profitability”? Stay tuned! Meanwhile, Guidehouse Insights continues to rate Tesla dead last among autonomous competitors: Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market some time in 2022 (as is now expected), even if Tesla makes some of its own, other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone. Tesla Build Quality Remains Awful Meanwhile, Tesla build quality remains awful (it ranks second-to-last in the latest Consumer Reports reliability survey and in the bottom 10% of the latest J.D. Power survey) and its worst-rated Model Y faces current (or imminent) competition from the much better built electric Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Volkswagen ID.4, Ford Mustang Mach E, Nissan Ariya, Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, the great new BMW i4 and the premium version of Volkswagen’s ID.3 (in Europe), plus multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Audi e-tron (substantially improved for 2022!) and Porsche Taycan outsell the Models S & X (and the newly updated Tesla models with their dated exteriors and idiotic shifters & steering wheels won’t change this), while the spectacular new Mercedes EQS, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make the Tesla Model S look like a fast Yugo, while the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX does the same to the Model X. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as it will enter a dogfight of a market; in fact, Ford’s terrific 2022 all-electric F-150 Lightning now has nearly 200,000 retail reservations (plus many more fleet reservations), Rivian’s pick-up has gotten fantastic early reviews, and in January GM will introduce its electric Silverado. Regarding safety, as noted earlier in this letter, Tesla continues to deceptively sell its hugely dangerous so-called “Autopilot” system, which Consumer Reports has completely eviscerated; God only knows how many more people this monstrosity unleashed on public roads will kill despite the NTSB condemning it. Elsewhere in safety, in 2020 the Chinese government forced the recall of tens of thousands of Teslas for a dangerous suspension defect the company spent years trying to cover up, and now Tesla has been hit by a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. for the same defect. Tesla also knowingly sold cars that it knew were a fire hazard and did the same with solar systems, and after initially refusing to do so voluntarily, it was forced to recall a dangerously defective touchscreen. In other words, when it comes to the safety of customers and innocent bystanders, Tesla is truly one of the most vile companies on Earth. Meanwhile the massive number of lawsuits of all types against the company continues to escalate. So Here Is Tesla's Competition In Cars (Note: These Links Are Regularly Updated)... Porsche Taycan Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo Porsche Macan Electric SUV Officially Coming in 2023 Volkswagen ID.3 Headlines VW's Electrified Future Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen ID.Buzz electric van teased ahead of 2022 launch Volkswagen ID 6 to arrive with 435-mile range in 2023 Volkswagen Aero B: new electric Passat equivalent spied VW’s Cupra brand counts on performance for Born EV Cupra, VW brand to get entry-level battery-powered cars Audi e-tron Audi e-tron Sportback Audi E-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron confirmed for 2022 launch Audi previews long-range A6 e-tron EV Audi TT set to morph into all-electric crossover Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 spotted ahead of 2022 launch Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS: the first electric vehicle in the luxury class Mercedes EQS SUV takes shape Mercedes-Benz unveils EQE electric sedan with impressive 400-mile range Mercedes EQE SUV to rival BMW iX and Tesla Model X Mercedes EQC electric SUV available now in Europe & China Mercedes-Benz Launches the EQV, its First Fully-Electric Passenger Van Mercedes-Benz EQB Makes Its European Debut, US Sales Confirmed Mercedes-Benz unveils EQA electric SUV with 265 miles of range and ~$46,000 price Ford Mustang Mach-E Available Now Ford F-150 Lightning electric pick-up available 2022 Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to offer EV versions of Explorer, Aviator, ‘rugged SUVs' Volvo Polestar 2 Polestar 3 SUV Production Design Revealed. The US-built electric SUV will debut in 2022. Volvo XC40 Recharge Volvo C40 electric sedan to challenge Tesla Model 3, VW ID3 Polestar 3 will be an electric SUV that shares its all-new platform with next Volvo XC90 Chevy updates, expands Bolt EV family as price drops Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq Available Spring 2022 GMC ALL-ELECTRIC SUPERTRUCK HUMMER EV GM to build electric Silverado in Detroit with estimated range of more than 400 miles GMC to launch electric Hummer SUV in 2023 GM will offer 30 all-electric models globally by 2025 GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services Nissan vows to hop back on EV podium with Ariya Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now Nissan Unveils $18 Billion Electric-Vehicle Strategy BMW leads off EV offensive with iX3 BMW expands EV offerings with iX tech flagship and i4 sedan BMW i7 Confirmed for 2022 Launch 2022 BMW iX1 electric SUV spied Rivian R1T Is the Most Remarkable Pickup We’ve Ever Driven Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises 'heart-of-the-market SUV' from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Alfa Romeo is latest Stellantis brand to get all-electric future Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Maserati to launch electric sports car Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota’s Electric bZ4X Goes On Sale in Spring 2022 Toyota will have lineup of 30 full EVs by 2030; Lexus will be all-electric brand Opel sees electric Corsa as key EV entry 2021 Vauxhall Mokka revealed as EV with sharp looks, massive changes Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV offers range of power, battery sizes Electric Skoda Enyaq coupe to muscle-in on Tesla Model 3 Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals Nio to launch in five more European countries after Norway BYD will launch electric SUV in Europe The Lucid Air Achieves an Estimated EPA Range of 517 Miles on a Single Charge Bentley converting to electric-only brand All-electric Rolls-Royce Spectre to launch in 2023 – firm to be EV-only by 2030 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Meet the Canoo, a Subscription-Only EV Pod Coming in 2021 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Former Saab factory gets new life building solar-powered Sono Sion electric cars Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China... How VW Group plans to dominate China's EV market VW Goes Head-to-Head With Tesla in China With New ID.4 Crozz Electric SUV Volkswagen’s ID.3 EV to be produced by JVs with SAIC, FAW in 2021 2022 VW ID.6 Revealed With Room For Seven And Two Electric Motors China-built Audi e-tron rolls off production line in Changchun Audi Q2L e-tron debuts at Auto Shanghai Audi will build Q4 e-tron in China Audi Q5 e-tron Confirmed For China Audi in cooperation company for local electric car production with FAW FAW Hongqi starts selling electric SUV with 400km range for $32,000 FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025 BYD goes after market left open by Tesla with four cheaper models for budget-conscious buyers BYD said to launch premium NEV brand ‘Dolphin’ in 2022 Top of Form Bottom of Form Daimler & BYD launch DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market Geely announces premium EV brand Zeekr Geely, Mercedes-Benz launch $780 million JV to make electric smart-branded cars Mercedes styled Denza X 7-seat electric SUV to hit market Mercedes ‘makes mark’ with China-built EQC BMW, Great Wall to build new China plant for electric cars BAIC Goes Electric, & Establishes Itself as a Force in China’s New Energy Vehicle Future BAIC BJEV, Magna ready to pour RMB2 bln in all-electric PV manufacturing JV Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Ford MUSTANG MACH-E ROLLS OFF ASSEMBLY LINE IN CHINA FOR LOCAL CUSTOMERS Lexus to launch EV in China taking on VW and Tesla GAC Aion about to start volume production of 1,000-km range AION LX GAC Toyota to ramp up annual capacity by 400,000 NEVs GAC kicks off delivery of HYCAN 007 all-electric SUV Nio – Ready For Tomorrow Nio steps up plans for mass-market brand to compete with VW, Toyota Xpeng Motors sells multiple EV models SAIC-GM to build Ultium EV platform in Wuhan Chevrolet Menlo Electric Vehicle Launched in China Buick Introduces New VELITE 6 EV with Extended Range Buick Velite 7 EV And Velite 6 PHEV Launch In China Dongfeng launches the all-electric Voyah  PSA to accelerate rollout of electrified vehicles in China SAIC, Alibaba-backed EV brand IM begins presale of first model L7 Hyundai Motor Transforming Chongqing Factory into Electric Vehicle Plant Polestar said to plan China showroom expansion to compete with Tesla Jaguar Land Rover's Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production Renault reveals series urban e-SUV K-ZE for China Renault & Brilliance detail electric van lineup for China Renault forms China electric vehicle venture with JMCG Honda to start sales of new EV-branded vehicles in China in 2022 Geely launches new electric car brand 'Geometry' – will launch 10 EVs by 2025 Geely, Foxconn form partnership to build cars for other automakers Fiat Chrysler, Foxconn Team Up for Electric Vehicles Baidu to create an intelligent EV company with automaker Geely Leapmotor starts presale of C11 electric SUV on Jan. 1 2021 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weltmeister Chery Seres Enovate China's cute Ora R1 electric hatch offers a huge range for less than US$9,000 Singulato JAC Motors releases new product planning, including many NEVs Seat to make purely electric cars with JAC VW in China Iconiq Motors Hozon Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia CHJ Automotive begins to accept orders of Leading Ideal ONE Infiniti to launch Chinese-built EV in 2022 Human Horizons Chinese smartphone giant Xiaomi to launch electric car business with $10 billion investment Lifan Technology to roll out three EV models with swappable batteries in 2021 Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Autonomous Driving... Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Fiat Chrysler, Waymo expand self-driving partnership for passenger, delivery vehicles Waymo and Lyft partner to scale self-driving robotaxi service in Phoenix Volvo, Waymo partner to build self-driving vehicles Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car Renault, Nissan partner with Waymo for self-driving vehicles Geely’s Zeekr, Waymo partner on autonomous ride-hailing vehicle for the U.S. market Cruise and GM Team Up with Microsoft to Commercialize Self-Driving Vehicles Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle Honda launching Level 3 autonomous cars Volkswagen moves ahead with Autonomous Driving R&D for Mobility as a Service Volkswagen teams up with Microsoft to accelerate the development of automated driving VW taps Baidu's Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China Ford “Blue Cruise” ARGO AI AND FORD TO LAUNCH SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES ON LYFT NETWORK Hyundai and Kia Invest in Aurora Toyota, Denso form robotaxi partnership with Aurora Aptiv and Hyundai Motor Group complete formation of autonomous driving joint venture Amazon’s Zoox unveils electric robotaxi that can travel up to 75 mph Nvidia and Mercedes Team Up to Make Next-Gen Vehicles Daimler's heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way SoftBank, Toyota's self-driving car venture adds Mazda, Suzuki, Subaru Corp, Isuzu Daihatsu  Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars Mobileye and Geely to Offer Most Robust Driver Assistance Features Mobileye Starts Testing Self-Driving Vehicles in Germany Mobileye and NIO Partner to Bring Level 4 Autonomous Vehicles to Consumers Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Nissan gives Japan version of Infiniti Q50 hands-free highway driving Hyundai to start autonomous ride-sharing service in Calif. Pony.ai Receives Approval for Paid Autonomous Robotaxi Services in Beijing Baidu kicks off its robotaxi business, after getting the OK to charge fees in Beijing Toyota to join Baidu's open-source self-driving platform Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions Volvo will provide cars for Didi's self-driving test fleet BMW and Tencent to develop self-driving car technology together BMW, NavInfo bolster partnership in HD map service for autonomous cars in China GM Invests $300 M in Momenta to deliver self-driving technologies in China FAW Hongqi readies electric SUV offering Level 4 autonomous driving Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture Huawei teams up with BAIC BJEV, Changan, GAC to co-launch self-driving car brands GAC Aion, DiDi Autonomous Driving to co-develop driverless NEV model BYD partners with Huawei for autonomous driving Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars Xpeng releases autonomous features for highway driving Nuro Becomes First Driverless Car Delivery Service in California Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks ZF autonomous EV venture names first customer Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4 Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public Mitsubishi Electric to Exhibit Autonomous-driving Technologies in New xAUTO Test Vehicle Apple acquires self-driving startup Drive.ai Motional to begin robotaxi testing with Hyundai Ioniq 5 in Los Angeles JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving Great Wall’s autonomous driving arm Haomo.ai receives investment from Meituan Plus.ai, Iveco to start L4 autonomous heavy-duty truck test in Europe, China T3 Mobility, IDRIVERPLUS to pilot Robotaxi operation in Suzhou with autonomous+manual model Here’s Where Tesla’s Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells... Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe How GM's Ultium Battery Will Help It Commit to an Electric Future GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems Ford, SK Innovation announce EV battery joint venture BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis, LG Energy Solution to form battery JV for N. American market Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Toyota to build plant in N.C. capable of making up to 1.2M batteries a year Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner UK companies AMTE Power and Britishvolt plan $4.9 billion investment in battery plants Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries Daimler Morrow Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Charging Networks... Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America is spending $2 billion building a high-speed U.S. charging network 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM to distribute up to 10 chargers to each of its dealerships starting early 2022 General Motors and EVgo Boost Build Plan for High Power Fast Chargers Across the US Circle K Owner Plans Electric-Car Charging Push in U.S., Canada 191 U.S. Porsche dealers are installing 350kw chargers ChargePoint to equip Daimler dealers with electric car chargers GM and Bechtel plan to build thousands of electric car charging stations across the US Ford introduces 12,000 station charging network, teams with Amazon on home installation Shell Plans To Deploy Around 500,000 Charging Points Globally By 2025 Petro-Canada Introduces Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta is rolling out a free charging network Ionity Europe E.ON and Virta launch one of the largest intelligent EV charging networks in Europe Volkswagen plans 36,000 charging points for electric cars throughout Europe Smatric has over 400 charging points in Austria Allego has hundreds of chargers in Europe PodPoint UK charging stations BP Chargemaster/Polar is building stations across the UK Instavolt is rolling out a UK charging network Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe Aral To Install Over 100 Ultra-Fast Chargers In Germany Deutsche Telekom launches installation of charging network for e-cars Total to build 1,000 high-powered charging points at 300 European service-stations NIO teams up with China’s State Grid to build battery charging, swapping stations Volkswagen-based CAMS launches supercharging stations in China Volkswagen, FAW Group, JAC Motors, Star Charge formally announce new EV charging JV BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales BP, Didi Jump on Electric-Vehicle Charging Bandwagon Evie rolls out ultrafast charging network in Australia Evie Networks To Install 42 Ultra-Fast Charging Sites In Australia And Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Storage Batteries... Panasonic Samsung LG BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Bosch Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Schneider Electric Sonnen Kyocera Generac Kokam NantEnergy Eaton Nissan Tesvolt Kreisel Leclanche Lockheed Martin EOS Energy Storage ESS UET electrIQ Power Belectric Stem ENGIE Redflow Renault Primus Power Simpliphi Power redT Energy Storage Murata Bluestorage Adara Blue Planet Tabuchi Electric Aggreko Orison Moixa Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric Schmid 24M Ecoult Innolith LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor Thanks and Happy New Year, Mark Spiegel Updated on Jan 3, 2022, 11:25 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkJan 3rd, 2022

Why You Should Add Celanese Corporation (CE) to Your Portfolio

Celanese (CE) is gaining from strategic acquisitions, focus on efficiency and productivity measures and a robust liquidity position. The time is right to add the stock to your portfolio. Celanese Corporation CE stock looks promising at the moment. The company is benefiting from acquisitions, productivity initiatives and strategic investments.We are optimistic about the company’s prospects and believe that the time is right to add the stock to the portfolio as it is poised to carry the momentum ahead.Celanese currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and a VGM Score of B. Our research shows that stocks with a VGM Score of A or B, combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2, offer the best investment opportunities for investors.Let’s delve deeper into the factors that make this chemical stock an attractive choice for investors right now.An OutperformerShares of Celanese have soared 27.9% over the past year compared with 6.6% rise for the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchEstimates NorthboundOver the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased 8.8% to $18.30, implying year-over-year growth of 139.5%. The consensus mark for 2022 has also been revised around 14% upward over the same time frame. The favorable estimate revisions instill investor confidence in the stock.Impressive Earnings Surprise HistoryCelanese outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the trailing four quarters, the earnings surprise being 12.65%, on average.Attractive ValuationValuation looks attractive as the company’s shares are currently trading at a level that is lower than the industry average, suggesting that the stock still has upside potential.Going by the EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value/ Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization) multiple, which is often used to value chemical stocks, Celanese is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.91, much cheaper than the industry average of 27.61.Upbeat ProspectsCelanese stands to gain from acquisitions, which should lend support to its earnings. The recently completed takeover of Exxon Mobil's Santoprene Business will broaden the company’s portfolio of engineered solutions and empower it to offer a wider range of solutions to targeted growth areas, including future mobility, medical and sustainability. The buyout of Italy-based SO.F.TER. Group promises opportunities for additional growth, investment and synergies. The acquisition of Nilit's nylon compounding unit is anticipated to catapult the company to a leading position in not only nylon compound supply but also in the engineered materials business as nylon is rapidly being adopted in automotive, consumer and industrial applications. The acquisition of Omni Plastics adds to CE’s global asset base and the Elotex buyout is expected to boost the company’s position in the vinyl acetate ethylene (VAE) emulsions space.The company is poised to gain on its strategic initiatives, including cost savings through productivity actions and efficiency enhancement and drive margins through productivity and price hike actions and operational improvement. Global supply chain improvements and other productivity initiatives at the Engineered Materials segment are also expected to catalyze earnings. CE expects to deliver $150 million of growth productivity in 2021.The company is focused on boosting growth in emerging regions, including Asia. Its chemical complex in Nanjing, China, has been propelling growth in Asia. Doubling the capacity of Nanjing’s VAE unit seeks to cater to the high demand for innovative specialty solutions in vinyl-based emulsions. The restart of production at the new VAE unit in Singapore is expected to support demand in Southeast Asia. The company’s investment in a number of capital-efficient VAE expansion and debottlenecking projects are anticipated to strengthen its acetyls business. Its joint ventures with Mitsubishi Gas for increasing Korea Engineering Plastics Co.’s production capacity and enhancing the long-term security of supply and with Pertamina for developing ethanol in Indonesia also bode well. The rise in volumes is expected to reflect in a series of steps in the years to come. The company also looks to expand engineered materials compounding capacities in Asia.Celanese is committed to strengthening its balance sheet with lowered debt, stronger cash flows and value generation for shareholders. In January 2021, it raised its quarterly cash dividend by 10% to 68 cents a share.  It expects to repurchase shares worth $1 billion in 2021. The company returned $376 million to shareholders through dividend payouts and share repurchases during the third quarter of 2021. In its most recent quarter, the company completed several transactions to spread out debt maturities and lower interest expense, including a registered public offering of $400 million of 1.400% Senior Notes due 2026. It anticipates generating a free cash flow of more than $1.2 billion in 2021.Key PicksSome other top-ranked stocks from the basic materials space are Univar Solutions Inc. UNVR, The Chemours Company CC and AdvanSix Inc. ASIX, each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Univar has an expected earnings growth rate of 55.2% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has been revised 9% upward over the past 60 days.Univar beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the four trailing quarters, with the earnings surprise being 24.1%, on average. UNVR’s shares have rallied 47.8% over a year.Chemours has an expected earnings growth rate of 105.1% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CC’s earnings for the current year has been revised 10% upward in the past 60 days.Chemours beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters. The company delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 34.2%, on average. CC has gained 33.8% over a year.AdvanSix has an expected earnings growth rate of 197% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has been revised 14.1% upward over the past 60 days.AdvanSix beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the four trailing quarters, with the earnings surprise being 47%, on average. ASIX’s shares have surged 135.7% over a year. Infrastructure Stock Boom to Sweep America A massive push to rebuild the crumbling U.S. infrastructure will soon be underway. It’s bipartisan, urgent, and inevitable. Trillions will be spent. Fortunes will be made. The only question is “Will you get into the right stocks early when their growth potential is greatest?” Zacks has released a Special Report to help you do just that, and today it’s free. Discover 7 special companies that look to gain the most from construction and repair to roads, bridges, and buildings, plus cargo hauling and energy transformation on an almost unimaginable scale.Download FREE: How to Profit from Trillions on Spending for Infrastructure >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Celanese Corporation (CE): Free Stock Analysis Report The Chemours Company (CC): Free Stock Analysis Report Univar Solutions Inc. (UNVR): Free Stock Analysis Report AdvanSix (ASIX): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJan 2nd, 2022

Why You Must Retain United Rentals (URI) Despite Share Price Fall

Biden's infrastructural push and solid business momentum are set to drive United Rentals' (URI) growth. Yet, higher costs and expenses are pressing concerns. The construction sector has had a mixed performance for the year 2021. Housing and related industries have witnessed solid demand trends along with supply-chain disruptions and shortage of skilled labor. United Rentals Inc. URI, the largest equipment rental company in the world, has also been witnessing the same.The company has been grappling with higher fuel costs, increased operating expenses and competitive pressure. Also, a volatile energy market and the   cyclical nature of the business are pressing concerns.Defying all the odds arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and other industry woes, URI is set to benefit from an extensive and diverse rental fleet, which allows it to serve a large range of customers across the world. A significant boost in infrastructural and public construction spending, solid end-market demand, expansion strategy along with accelerated momentum in the underlying business are gaining traction.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe company’s shares have declined 8.6% in the past three months against the Zacks Building Products – Miscellaneous industry’s 5.7% rise. Although investors are a bit pessimistic due to its share price decline in the past three months, 2022 earnings prospects look good. The company has solid prospects, as is evident from the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2022 earnings of $26.34 per share, which improved 2.3% in the past 30 days. This indicates 20.2% year-over-year growth. URI has a solid history of surpassing earnings estimates. Its earnings surpassed analysts’ expectations in 12 of the last 15 quarters.Apart from impressive prospects for the next year, United Rentals has a solid VGM Score of A. Also, the company is a great pick in terms of growth and value investment, supported by a Growth and Value Score of A.URI’s trailing 12-month return on equity (“ROE”) is another indication of growth potential. ROE in the trailing 12 months is 28.9% compared with the industry’s 9.4%, reflecting efficient usage of its shareholders’ funds.Here are a few factors supporting the growth of this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Biden’s Infrastructural MoveUnited Rentals is expected to benefit from strong global trends in infrastructure modernization, energy transition, national security and a potential super-cycle in global supply chain investments. Importantly, United Rentals should continue to maintain positive momentum in the near term, as the company’s solutions are closely aligned with President Biden’s policies and industry trends.Solid Underlying BusinessFor the first nine months of 2021, equipment rentals represented 84.5% of the total revenues. There has been a return of activity in United Rentals’ manufacturing sector after more than a year of industrial recession. The construction verticals, which have been most resilient amid the COVID-19 pandemic, are still going strong. In terms of end markets, solid activity was witnessed in power, HVAC, pharma, biotech, warehousing, distribution, data center and hospitals. Non-residential construction (the company’s largest revenue base) has been registering an improvement of late. It has been witnessing a rising demand for specialty construction products, which are significantly contributing to the trench, power and fluid solutions segment’s revenues. Also, the demand for used equipment remained solid, post the easing of pandemic-led restrictions.AcquisitionsUnited Rentals is expanding geographic borders and the product portfolio through acquisitions as well as joint ventures. The company offers approximately 4,300 classes of rental equipment for rent on an hourly, daily, weekly or monthly basis.On May 25, URI’s subsidiary, UR Merger Sub VI Corporation acquired General Finance Corporation. General Finance — which operates as Pac-Van and Container King in the United States and Canada, and as Royal Wolf in Australia and New Zealand — is a leading provider of mobile storage as well as modular office space. United Rentals is expected to benefit from General Finance’s expertise in different markets. Also, the acquisition enhanced its growth capacity and provided the company with a leading position in the rental market for mobile storage as well as office solutions.Some Better-Ranked Stocks in the Same IndustryJames Hardie Industries plc JHX: Based in Dublin, Ireland, this company is one of the leading producers and marketers of high-performance fiber cement as well as fiber gypsum building solutions. The company’s all three regions served continue to gain momentum on the execution of the global strategy of driving high-value product mix penetration.James Hardie currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 and has gained 39.4% YTD. Earnings are expected to grow 34% in fiscal 2022 and 18.8% in fiscal 2023.CRH plc CRH: This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) firm manufactures cement, concrete products, aggregates, roofing, insulation and other building materials.The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the next year is 10.4%. The stock has declined 24.2% in the year-to-date period.ToughBuilt Industries, Inc. TBLT: Incorporated in the State of Nevada, the company designs,  manufactures,  and  distributes  innovative  tools  and  accessories  to  the  building  industry.ToughBuilt currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. The stock has declined 47.4% in the year-to-date period. The company’s earnings for 2022 are expected to grow 36.8%. Infrastructure Stock Boom to Sweep America A massive push to rebuild the crumbling U.S. infrastructure will soon be underway. It’s bipartisan, urgent, and inevitable. Trillions will be spent. Fortunes will be made. The only question is “Will you get into the right stocks early when their growth potential is greatest?” Zacks has released a Special Report to help you do just that, and today it’s free. Discover 5 special companies that look to gain the most from construction and repair to roads, bridges, and buildings, plus cargo hauling and energy transformation on an almost unimaginable scale.Download FREE: How to Profit from Trillions on Spending for Infrastructure >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report United Rentals, Inc. (URI): Free Stock Analysis Report James Hardie Industries PLC. (JHX): Free Stock Analysis Report CRH PLC (CRH): Free Stock Analysis Report ToughBuilt Industries, Inc. (TBLT): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 27th, 2021

US Futures Hit All Time High As Santa Rally Spreads Markets Cheer

US Futures Hit All Time High As Santa Rally Spreads Markets Cheer The Santa Claus rally is here, and stocks are set to make their 69th all-time high for 2021 when they open in 90 minutes. US index futures rose to fresh all time highs despite amid thin, holiday-muted trading and a mood of caution as traders evaluated spiking coronavirus cases as investors monitored progress on the Biden administration’s economic stimulus and social spending plan after president-in-waiting Kamala Harris said neither her nor Joe Biden are giving up on the bill. Futures on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 futures both climbed 0.3% at 745 a.m. in New York, the former trading at all time highs of 4,733. The dollar strengthened, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were little changed while crude oil and gold dipped. A dollar gauge ticked up. In overnight news, Kamala Harris said the Biden administration is seeking a path forward for its “Build Back Better” economic stimulus. Elsewhere, US holiday sales jumped 8.5% from last year as consumers spent more money on clothes, jewelry and electronics, a report from Mastercard SpendingPulse showed. Still, in U.S. premarket trading, U.S. travel stocks retreated, led by United Airlines Holdings Inc., after hundreds of flights were canceled over Christmas due to a spike in Covid-19 cases. Here are some of the more notable premarket movers: United Airlines Holdings (UAL US) -2.9%, Delta Air Lines (DAL US) -2% and American Airlines (AAL US) -2.1%. Velo3D (VLD US) rose in afterhours trading Thursday after announcing delivery of its first Sapphire XC to an aerospace customer. Surgalign Holdings (SRGA US) dropped in postmarket after filing for the potential sale of equity and debt securities. In the latest covid developments, Anthony Fauci, one of the top U.S. medical advisers, said Americans should stay vigilant because omicron cases can still overwhelm hospitals even if evidence suggests the strain’s symptoms may be less severe. That said, the predominant thread was one of lack of trading as most desks have closed for the year: for markets overall, “either the headline reel will spur ugly intraday moves on holiday-thinned liquidity, or volatility will remain so flatline, that if it were an ECG, the doctors and nurses would be yelling code blue,” Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note. In Europe, stocks edged up amid thinner trading volumes as investors monitored the surge in Covid-19 cases. Over the weekend, China’s central bank pledged greater economic support over the weekend, contrasting with steps by the Federal Reserve and other central banks to fight inflation by cutting stimulus. The outlook for monetary policy, Covid and company earnings are shaping views on whether global stocks can keep rising after nearly doubling from pandemic lows. Asian stocks slipped in thin trading ahead of the year-end holidays as investors weighed the latest developments in virus cases related to the omicron variant.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between a loss of 0.2% and a gain of less than 0.1%. Hardware technology giants provided the biggest support to the measure as chipmakers advanced, while industrial names and software companies fell. Coronavirus cases surged across the globe, with China reporting over the weekend the highest number of local cases since January. Singapore plans to make vaccination a condition for the approval of new applications for and renewal of existing long-term passes, work passes, and permanent residences starting Feb. 1. “While there is worry that infections will continue to spread, the sense is that it’s not likely to develop into serious cases or trigger another series of lockdowns,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. “I still see room for share price gains during the few trading days left this year.”  The Asian stock benchmark rose 0.4% last week, with sentiment boosted by positive U.S. economic-growth data and a U.K. study suggesting omicron infections are less likely to lead to hospitalization.   Benchmarks in South Korea and Japan were among the worst performers in the region for the day, while Malaysian and Philippine stocks outperformed. Markets in Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong are shut for the holidays. India’s benchmark equity index advanced, overcoming a weak start to the session, boosted by gains in Tech Mahindra Ltd.  The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.5% to 57,420.24 in Mumbai, reversing losses of as much as 1%. The NSE Nifty 50 Index also climbed by a similar measure. Sixteen of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by a gauge of healthcare companies. Tech Mahindra Ltd. rose 3.6% and was the best performer on both key indexes. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 24 rose and 6 fell. Private sector lender RBL Bank Ltd. dropped 18.5% after a decision by the nation’s central bank to appoint a new director to the board raised concerns about the outlook for the small private-sector lender. India also announced a program to vaccinate teenagers from the ages of 15 to 18 starting next year and booster doses for health-care workers as omicron-fueled Covid-19 cases spike. The announcement was made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the weekend. Still, several states have imposed night curfews and restrictions on public gatherings to keep a check on the spread of the new variant.  “Markets are facing pressure on every rise and it would only subside if the cases tally remains under control,” Ajit Mishra, vice president of research at Religare Broking Ltd. wrote in a note. “We recommend keeping a check on leveraged positions amid volatility and letting the markets stabilize.” In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index rose as much as 0.2%, rebounding from its lowest level in more than a month; the New Zealand dollar and the Norwegian krone led declines among G-10 peers. The pound outperformed peers following a report that Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak plans to cut tens of thousands of jobs within the U.K. civil service to save government budgets 5% over the next three years. Turkey’s lira snapped a five-day rally, challenging government assurances that it’s on a more stable footing after measures were introduced a week ago to stem its collapse. In rates, 10- year Treasury yields dipped 1bp to 1.49% after rising nine basis points last week. Treasuries were mixed with short-maturity yields higher on the day as the final week of the year begins, ahead of $56b 2-year note auction at 1pm ET. Amid expectations that Fed will start raising interest rates next year, last month’s 2-year auction tailed by more than 1bp. Yields are higher by 1bp-2bp in 2- to 5-year sectors with longer-maturity tenors little changed, flattening curve spreads slightly; 10-year at 1.494% is inside last week’s range. WI 2-year yield at ~0.76% exceeds auction stops since February 2020; last month’s drew 0.623%. The auction cycle includes $57b 5-year note Tuesday, $56b 7-year Wednesday. Expected data include the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook survey. No major earnings or central bank events are scheduled. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,724.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% German 10Y yield up 2 bps to -0.23% Euro little changed at $1.1310 MXAP down 0.2% to 191.83 MXAPJ little changed at 624.02 Nikkei down 0.4% to 28,676.46 Topix down 0.4% to 1,977.90 Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 23,223.76 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,615.97 Sensex up 0.5% to 57,433.95 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,420.30 Kospi down 0.4% to 2,999.55 Brent futures little changed at $76.06/bbl Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,805.61 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 96.22 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The Biden administration is seeking a path forward for its “Build Back Better” economic stimulus and social spending plan, Vice President Kamala Harris said Sunday Coronavirus infections surged across the globe with China reporting the highest number of local cases since January, darkening the year-end holiday period China’s central bank pledged greater support for the economy on Saturday and said it will make monetary policy more forward-looking and targeted US Event Calendar 10:30am: U.S. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, Dec., est. 13.0, prior 11.8     Tyler Durden Mon, 12/27/2021 - 08:07.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 27th, 2021

Here"s Why You Should Retain American International (AIG) Stock

American International (AIG) expects to buy back at least $900 million of common shares by the end of this year. American International Group, Inc. AIG is well poised to grow on the back of strategic acquisitions and its multi-year transformative program. Improving consumer spending is likely to drive the company’s net written premiums and sales growth in the coming days.American International — with a market cap of $45.9 billion — is a leading global insurance organization. Building on its long history, it provides a wide range of property casualty and life insurances. Along with retirement solutions, it provides other financial services to clients in more than 80 nations and jurisdictions.Courtesy of solid prospects, this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock is worth holding on to at the moment.Rising EstimatesThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for American International’s 2021 earnings is pegged at $4.70 per share, indicating an 86.5% year-over-year rise. The company beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 8.5%.American International Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise American International Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | American International Group, Inc. QuoteThe consensus estimate for 2021 revenues stands at $46.4 billion, suggesting a 0.2% year-over-year rise.VGM ScoreThe company currently has a VGM Score of B. Our research shows that stocks with a VGM Score of A or B combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) or 3 offer the best investment opportunities. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Growth DriversThe company undertook a transformative program named AIG 200, which is a global, multi-year initiative to achieve transformational changes. This initiative, costing the company $1.3 billion provided $400 million cost savings in 2020. The company expects to achieve run-rate savings worth $1 billion by the end of 2022. The expense ratio improved 170 basis points (bps) in the first nine months of 2021, courtesy of alteration in business mix, ongoing expense discipline and improved premium base.These initiatives will lead to operational efficiency and provide an extra boost to its operating margins. Also, American International selected Amazon.com, Inc.’s AMZN cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services as its preferred public cloud provider. The move is in line with American International’s strategy of large-scale digital transformation and is expected to support its AIG 200 strategy. It is likely to enable the company to streamline its operations worldwide and boost efficiency. Also, the move will help the leading global insurance firm move most of its workloads off the legacy platforms, thereby enhancing security and market opportunities. The selection of Amazon Web Services is likely to stimulate American International’s long-term growth process and business expansion.AIG has acquired Validus Holdings, Ltd. and Glatfelter Insurance Group, which strengthened its global General Insurance business. The company has made a significant shift in its capital utilization and now expects to utilize the capital for possible buyouts in the international markets, boosting the company's personal and life lines segments plus investing in the domestic middle market as opposed to its hitherto usage of a capital resource for share repurchases. This strategy should lead to long-term growth via business expansion. Also, its robust cash generation abilities have enabled it to continue shareholder-friendly moves through share buybacks and dividend payouts. It expects to buy back at least $900 million of common shares by 2021-end in a bid to conclude the stock repurchase program of $2 billion.Though the company's revenues have been under pressure for the past several years, the situation seems to have improved now. Revenues improved 11.5% in the first nine months of 2021. The company’s Commercial lines business witnessed a rate increase. The business climate is also likely to become favorable this year. Meanwhile, the Personal lines insurance business witnessed a recovery in the travel and warranty business. Consumer spending is also improving. This is likely to drive the company’s net written premiums and revenue growth in the days ahead.Apart from AIG, other companies including Old Republic International Corporation ORI and CNO Financial Group, Inc. CNO are also benefiting from the rising tides.Old Republic, based in Chicago, IL has operations in the United States and Canada. It engages in insurance underwriting and other services business. The company’s bottom line for 2021 is expected to jump 29.5% year-over-year to $2.90 per share.Old Republic witnessed one upward estimate revision in the past 60 days compared to none in the opposite direction. ORI beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters with the average surprise being 54.6%.Headquartered in Carmel, IN, CNO Financial’s cost-cutting initiatives are expected to enhance its earnings profile. The buyout of DirectPath is likely to bring enhanced benefits management services and enrollment capabilities to CNO.In the past 60 days, estimates for CNO Financial’s 2021 increased by 5%. During this time period, it witnessed three upward estimate revisions compared with none in the opposite direction. CNO Financial beat earnings estimates thrice in the past four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 13.2%.Key ConcernsThere are a few factors that are impeding the growth of American International.Its high debt burden is concerning. At third quarter-end, it had cash of only $2.6 billion. The long-term debt was $24.6 billion. This can restrict its financial flexibility. Also, lower profits from individual retirement can hurt its earnings from Life and Retirement unit. Nevertheless, we believe that a systematic and strategic plan of action will drive AIG’s long-term growth. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Free Stock Analysis Report American International Group, Inc. (AIG): Free Stock Analysis Report CNO Financial Group, Inc. (CNO): Free Stock Analysis Report Old Republic International Corporation (ORI): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 24th, 2021

Bob Iger: Pixar Deal Completed To Show Disney Employees It Was A New Day

Following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript of a CNBC exclusive interview with Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) Chairman and former CEO Bob Iger on CNBC today, Tuesday, December 21st. Following is a link to video on CNBC.com: Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Pixar Deal Completed To Show Disney Employees It Was A […] Following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript of a CNBC exclusive interview with Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) Chairman and former CEO Bob Iger on CNBC today, Tuesday, December 21st. Following is a link to video on CNBC.com: if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Pixar Deal Completed To Show Disney Employees It Was A New Day, Says Former CEO Bob Iger Part I on CNBC's "Squawk Box" DAVID FABER: Yeah, of course, he did step down as you well know Becky, at the end of let's call it February of 2020 right before the pandemic hit very hard and of course, he had three times that we thought he was going to step down as CEO only to stay on but this time is for real. He's got about 10 days left as you said on a career that’s spanned some 47-plus years at this company starting as he did in sports at ABC at 23 years of age and we did have a chance to sit down for a long period of time last week, late last week in Disneyland and talk about his career, talk about the challenges facing Disney at this point, a lot of other things that you don't typically do in a CNBC interview. But I did ask Iger whether at this moment as he looks towards the future and of course towards his past at Disney whether he's got any anxiety at all. BOB IGER: There's no anxiety about that at all. Sadness because I'm leaving people that I love working with and a company I've loved working for. But no remorse. No second guessing. No anxiety. FABER: You don't regret having left when you did and stepped down as CEO when you did? IGER: No, I think the, look, I didn't, no one knew that the pandemic was going to explode the way it did. I think the timing was unfortunate. But throwing a new CEO into, you know, that, you know, that circumstance, it was difficult. But no, I have no, no regrets about having made that decision. It was time. I didn't want people to say be going around saying, "When the heck is he gonna leave," you know? "Isn't it time?" I'd rather have them say, "Gee, did he have to leave when he's leaving? We would've liked him to stay longer." I'm getting some of that. Part II on CNBC's "Squawk Box" FABER: You know, listen, there are no shortage of challenges for Chapek and there's also been a decent amount sort of reported and written about challenges between Chapek and Iger, you know, as you’d probably expect, Iger did not want to engage too fully on it. I don't know if we have time but I did ask him if there should be any concern amongst Disney shareholders in terms of the relationship between the Bobs but at this point, of course, as you know, it is Mr. Chapek’s show and that's something that Iger agrees with. IGER: It shouldn't be a concern to Disney shareholders at all that, you know, that, that any dynamic between us is, would have an impact on the company long term. I'm leaving. He's in. It's his company. He's going to manage it as he see fit, he sees fit with the board under circumstances that are very different than existed when I was CEO and, and chairman because they're changing, as we've talked, they're changing so rapidly. And, you know, he'll make his own decisions, and, and I, you know, I hope that he's learned good lessons. I believe that he has, in terms of, you know, some of the things that I did along the way, and what worked and what didn't work. And I think the relationship I have with him is not really relevant to, you know, how he, how effective he is running the company. Part III on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" FABER: But yeah, we did sit down for a long interview that I was very happy to have an opportunity to conduct and a bit different than we typically do here at CNBC talking of course about his long career at Disney not just his time as CEO, obviously we hit on a lot of the key business questions as you might anticipate and we went over a lot of other things as well, you know, including sort of some of the things that he saw in terms of his strengths and weaknesses. And I guess I'll start there because he did sight sort of something he noticed about his own responsiveness that he said was one thing that alerted him maybe it was time to consider stepping down. Take a listen. IGER: I will say that over time, I think I started listening less than maybe with a little less tolerance of other people's opinions maybe because of getting a little bit more overconfident in my own, which is sometimes what happens when you get built up, you know, in some form or another, as you know, something special or great or whatever. I was mindful of that. FABER: Well you were introspective enough to recognize it though. A lot of leaders might not even recognize it. IGER: I think I wrote about that too. I was I became a little bit more dismissive of dissent and other people's opinions than I should have been. And that was that that was an early sign that it was time. It wasn't the reason I left but it was a contributing factor. FABER: That you just weren't, right, you just didn't have the patience any longer or you thought I've heard this all before and— IGER: Yes, a lot of all those things. You've heard all the, every argument before. I don't want to hear it again, even though it may be more valid today than it was then, times change. All the, you know, all the, that's the time, the challenges of a CEO of a large global company today in terms of managing time so you can't, so dissent has to be finite in a sense and depends on where you draw that line and when you, when do you shut dissent down. Maybe I was doing it a little bit too quickly. I felt that. Part IV on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" FABER: Back to Bob Iger and that interview we conducted late last week. Of course, Mr. Iger spending his last few days as the Chairman of Disney after what's been a 47-year career plus career at that company, 15-plus as its CEO as well in a period, as Jim noted earlier, in which the stock did extraordinarily well. We did have that chance though sort of an unusual opportunity really to talk not just about Disney and its business, but also sort of about some of the broader leadership lessons that Mr. Iger learned and perhaps could impart to others. He did some of that in a book that Jim and I of course have lauded for some time as well, but he and I did spend some time talking about that and culture and things that he would tell other potential CEOs as well. Take a listen. I'm curious as to how you think you went about changing the culture of Disney and what you would say or, you know, how quickly you can do it as a leader and where that culture is today versus then. IGER: Yeah, I think for any CEO of any particularly large company in today's world, the world throws you more and more curveballs, more and more challenges. And they now they come at you constantly and from directions that you could never anticipate, never expect. It gets really tough and I think I think one of the reasons why I think it's right for there to be change at the top sometimes is that can turn a CEO into more of a skeptical or pessimist or just because they get weary of all of those challenges. And I think we had gone through it. I know we had gone through a period of time at Disney prior to my ascending to become CEO where those challenges were numerous. They were omnipresent. There was the Comcast hostile takeover attempt. There was the share, the board member or shareholder revolt. There was the impact of technology on all of our traditional businesses. There was 9/11, there was, we can think about all of these things and I think Disney at the time had become weary of those challenges and with that came a little bit less of a belief in its future. There was a scale issue as well, were we large enough and it was intimidating, you know, faced some of those technology companies. Steve Jobs announcing “Rip. Mix. Burn.” and what was going to be the future of IP. People challenging copyrights, it was left and right and all over the place. And so, what I wanted to do when I came in was to see whether we could not ignore those challenge but put them aside and become optimists again and look to a future that we actually believed was brighter. And one thing that was important to me was embracing technology even though it was causing disruption and potential threats, I wanted to embrace it as a means of creating opportunity for us. FABER: Well you did I mean Jobs showed you the first video iPod, didn’t he? IGER: Right, so we put our television programs on it first which was a tiny, tiny deal but all of a sudden it signaled, wait a minute, maybe we could use technology to gain as opposed to, to lose. And that mentality was something I wanted to infuse in the company which is future's bright, let's view technology as opportunity versus threat and that, and that announcement actually turned out to be a big one and it has led to more serious conversations with Steve about buying Pixar too. FABER: Right, right. IGER: And I think one of the things that I was surprised at is if you if you consider pessimism about the future to be part of the company's culture, I thought it was going to take a long time to change that. It was very fast. FABER: Why do you think it was so fast? And why was that a surprise to you? IGER: Well, I think what it says something about that change in the top matters, you know, I'm not suggesting good or bad. I'm not suggesting oh in comes Bob and out goes Michael but it's, it has its it can freshen things up so to speak. And it’s happening at Disney now as well, you know, there's a change at the top and that could create a whole different outlook for the company going forward. FABER: Do you think it freshens things up, your departure as CEO? IGER: Look, the world is changing dramatically and it's important for a CEO of a company to address all of those changes rapidly. Bob is going to address them probably differently perhaps than I may have. That's neither good nor bad. I think change, I think generally speaking, change is good. Change isn't necessarily bad. FABER: Yeah. What do you see yourself doing, you know, a few days from now when you are no longer a part of this company? IGER: Step away from all of this, this dream when this dream finally ends. You know, I've worked full time, really full time since I was 23 years old and going to be 71. Working in the job that I've the jobs that I've had CEO and Chairman have, you know, were taxing from a time perspective, never in terms of my energy or my enthusiasm. It's time for me to have a blank canvas so to speak to be forced in a way to be a little bit more imaginative with my time. Not fortunate enough to have that luxury. Well, what will I do today? FABER: Do you have any hobbies though? IGER: Yeah, I have some hobbies. I don't golf. I like to sail, you don't sail and golf in the same lifetime. There just isn't enough time for that. But my wife has a full time job. My kids are out of the house— FABER: So you’re going to have to keep busy? IGER: I'll keep busy. I'm doing some selective investing. I'd like the ability to be an advisor to founders of startups because I think I've got some advice to give in that regard even though I haven't run a startup. And I've been sought after by some already. I'll probably do some of that. I plan to write another book, which is a homework assignment right now. I've got to get at that. And I'll do some speaking and I'll see where life takes me. I'm not in any rush. I've been advised by some who have stepped down from high office, including President Obama, do not, he said, “Do not make any decisions. Don't commit to anything for six months.” FABER: Six months? IGER: I’m telling you, don't do that. Yes. FABER: You know, you wrote about Eisner's departure in the book and you said it's hard to know exactly who you are without this attachment and title and role that has defined you for so long. IGER: Yes. When I wrote about tha,t I, I had developed a lot of empathy from Michael. I remember his last day at Disney. It was a Friday, last Friday in September of 2005 when his wife and one of the sons came to Disney and had lunch with him and he drove off the Disney lot after having been CEO for 21 years. And I was, at that point, I couldn't wait because I was ready to have that office and that title and that job and raring to go. And I don't think I thought long and hard at the time what that really meant to him and here I am. Yesterday was my last day on that Disney lot, you know, in this role and it was, it was an emotional experience for me. My son came to the lot, one of my sons, we had lunch together. There I walked around, took some pictures, I was feeling incredibly wistful, incredibly emotional. The ties that I've had to this company that have been so part of my life were ending and I in two weeks from now, I will not have a title and I've had a decent title since I was in my 30s. It’s a long time. But there's no anxiety about that at all. Sadness because I'm leaving people that I loved working with and a company I've loved working for, but no remorse. No second guessing. No anxiety. FABER: You don't regret having left when you did and stepped down as CEO when you did? IGER: No, I think the, look, I didn't, no one knew that the pandemic was going to explode the way it did. I think the timing was unfortunate. But throwing a new CEO into, you know, that, you know, that circumstance, it was difficult. But no, I have no, no regrets about having made that decision. It was time. FABER: It was, why? IGER: Some of the things that I've said which is believing that change at the top was good, although I will say a lot of it was very, very personal. It wasn't about the company. It was about me, you know, wanting to leave with the vitality to explore the world in different way. I thought back about a biography I read a pitcher for the Brooklyn Dodgers and the Los Angeles Dodgers named Sandy Koufax left at the top of his game and I think the biographer, Koufax’s biographer Jane Leavy said that he left walking off the field or on his own volition are, “Great athletes rarely retire on their own instead they limp off the field.” I didn't want to limp off the field. Part V on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" FABER: Well Carl, shares of Disney actually having a strong open this morning, up some almost 2.5% but for the year, the shares of the company down roughly 17%, one of the key reasons of course continuing concern about the growth of subscribers at Disney+ its key direct-to-consumer offering, and whether in fact the company can continue to add subscribers at a rate at least that investors had come to expect given quite vigorous subscriber growth certainly during the course of 2020 and early part of 2021. As you might expect in a long sit down with Disney's Chairman, he is still Chairman for another 10 days or so, Bob Iger, I did ask him about how he sees the outlook for streaming given its importance to Disney's overall business. IGER: There's guidance out there that the company has provided that I'm neither gonna update or comment too much on but obviously the company has expressed confidence in its ability to achieve the guidance that it has out there. So, I obviously supported that guidance was put out there by Bob when he was CEO and I was Chairman. Again, I think, we can't, we can't just maintain a pat hand because the world isn't staying basically the same. We have to continue to evolve and all that that means not just changing but taking advantage of opportunities aggressively. FABER: But there’s this continued question as strong as Pixar is with its audience, as strong as Star Wars is and Marvel and the incredibly deep loyalty it has, do you need to be broader in order to actually reach those kinds of numbers? IGER: I think there probably need, there probably needs more volume, there probably needs to be more dimensionality meaning more, you know, basically, more programming and more content for more people, different demographics, but Bob's aware of that. He’s addressing those issues. FABER: You seem to have that first mover advantage and gulped up a lot of assets that I'm sure many of the competitors now wish they had actually moved on. Doesn't mean that there weren't plenty of opportunities that perhaps you passed on but is everybody else sort of subscale when you look at the world as it was 16, 17 years ago? IGER: You know, I've never really spent much time thinking about how our competitors are positioned in that regard. I spent most of the time thinking about how we're positioned. So I don't know that others are scaled right or subscaled necessarily, I just think we're well scaled. Part VI on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" FABER: All day long, we've also been sharing excerpts of interview that I did last week with Bob Iger, the longtime CEO and the current Chairman of Disney. There's a look at the performance of the stock during the period of his CEO-ship so to speak. Remember he stepped down it's it's not that far away from two years ago Bob Chapek is the CEO of the company. Chairmanship will also change as well at the end of this year. Mr. Iger ending a 47-plus year run at the company that began with his working at ABC Sports when he was a young man. When we talked about his tenure of course, as you might expect, deal making was certainly one of the keys and starting with that decision to acquire Pixar. Take a listen. IGER: I'm proud of a lot of the decisions that were made, certainly the acquisitions. I'd say of all of them probably Pixar because it was the first and it put us on a path to achieving what I wanted to achieve which is scale when it came to storytelling. That was probably the best. FABER: And you faced I mean your own board. You were uncertain whether you're going to get it passed. Eisner came back to, to say, “Don't do it.” IGER: He subsequently, we had a long conversation about that years later and he admitted that he was wrong about that. I think there was a lot of emotion at that point for him having left Disney under such strange circumstances with Steve but looking back when he reflected on it with me, he admitted that I did the right thing. FABER: Well, you know, it's funny because I remember interviewing you and Jobs that afternoon after you announced it and I was basically focused on the price. I think, man, you're paying an awfully high multiple and many people may not have understood how incredibly important it was to sort of set a new direction for the company and revitalize animation. IGER: Well, that's exactly what I wanted to do. I, what I wanted to do more than anything is I wanted to send a signal to everybody at Disney that it was a new day, that we were more open minded about expansion in particular about partnerships, that creativity was the most important strategy for the company and Pixar at that point exemplified original storytelling and quality and creativity and in its highest form. And then there was the Steve factor, which I sometimes called the cool factor, which is what Apple was, what Steve represented the fact that Steve would embrace not just Disney but me and the vote of confidence that Steve gave in me, and Steve becoming a member of the board and our largest shareholder and I was all tied up in my desire to not only grow content, but it reposition Disney to our employees, to our shareholders and to our customers. And the price you mentioned it also factored in my desire to revitalize Disney Animation, which we did. You look at “Frozen” and you look at “Moana” and you look at “Zootopia” and you look at “Wreck-It Ralph” and you look at “Tangled,” and the number of Academy Awards and the box office success and all of the IP that that created, generated and what how basically we're going to mine that IP for Disney+, you know, it all was tied really everything that we've done at Disney Animation since then, was tied to the Pixar acquisition. FABER: Do you think it was something unique about you that allowed you to convince all of these founders to part with their “babies?” IGER: In all cases, I developed a trust with them and that I convinced them would serve them well if they sold to us meaning, in Steve's case, he, he owned half of Pixar publicly traded company and converted his ownership of Pixar into all Disney. That by the way, wasn't the motivation behind him doing and it wasn't about growing his personal wealth at all. But more importantly, with Steve, I created a trust in him that the assets of Pixar and its people would be in the right hands. And so I think in terms of your question, what was it about me that convinced them. First of all, it was me meaning it was singular in terms of I didn't do the deal myself. It was singular in terms of the pursuit. One on one in some cases, being as candid as I possibly could be and I think as authentic as I could be in developing a relationship, even if we've developed over a relatively brief period of time and not disappointing him either. FABER: What does that mean? IGER: He was never disappointed. Once we did the deal, in fact, in the months before he died he came to, he and his wife, Laurene, came to our house. And Laurene and Steve and Willow and I sat down at a dinner and he toasted to the deal we had done some years earlier, convinced that it was the right thing to do for Disney and for Pixar. And I remember it was, it was very heartfelt and tears came to our eyes, four of us at the dinner table crying, in part dreading what was potentially in store for him which is the end of his life but in part reflecting on what we had done together and truly appreciating it. So. I think again, it's development of a relationship, different in some ways but similar in others. It was me going to New York spending months trying to figure out getting a meeting with him, sitting with him one on one once and then twice a couple of days later and convincing him that it was the right thing to do for the Marvel shareholders, publicly traded company and the people at Marvel and I think he was intrigued with the notion of, of investing in Disney plus Marvel and it worked out extremely well. FABER: And became a large shareholder. I assume you heard from him frequently as well after he became a Disney shareholder. IGER: I heard from Ike, yeah, I heard from Ike a lot over the years. FABER: Yes, that’s what I heard. IGER: We weren't, we weren't always— FABER: In sync? IGER: Complete agreement on things. But that's neither here nor there. I think it's turned out extremely well for him and certainly for the shareholders of Marvel. It's turned out I think they got Disney shares somewhere in the neighborhood of $28 a share. I know we were up around 200 even if you look at it today in that 150 range, that's a pretty good return on investment and George's case was also singular in many ways. I had breakfast with him at Disney World. Talked to him about the future of Lucasfilm and broached the subject. He was close with Steve Jobs and don't forget Pixar was owned at one point by George. Steve bought it from George. And there was a real connection although Steve had passed when I first sat down with George and George was impressed with how we had managed Pixar and assimilated Pixar into the company. He was very, very concerned about Lucasfilm many respects his baby, his legacy, and there was a trust there too that I think we demonstrated that we could be trusting in terms of how we had already managed the Marvel assets and the Pixar assets and I think he was looking to some extent for either long term wealth preservation or long term wealth creation. FABER: You know, you mentioned in the book, the idea that if Steve had lived, Disney and Apple might have become one. Did you guys ever really talk about Apple buying? IGER: No, Steve and I never did. What we did talk about and he was public about at one point at one of his late Apple product presentations, he stood in front of a street sign with an intersection I think one said liberal arts and one said technology. That's what made his heart sing. I think that's how we put it that intersection. So what we talked about a lot was what happens when great technology meets great creativity. He thought that means that to him was the secret sauce for almost everything. And if you, if you project that into how the world was changing and you think of a world where suddenly the opportunity to use that technology to create new experiences for people in terms of how they access content, the natural thing would have been for Apple to have the great content that Disney creates applied or used on their platform. And I know I'm pretty convinced we would have had that discussion. And you know, that was maybe someone wistful of me when I wrote that, but I just knew of his passion for everything we did and everything Apple did and then his deep, deep belief that nothing would be more powerful than that combination. I think we would have gotten there. Part VII on CNBC's "TechCheck" FABER: Yeah, of course Julia, and something you've been very focused on as well as your coverage of the company, direct-to-consumer certainly being a such an important component overall of their strategy. I know we can both remember back in what was it August of 2015 on that earnings conference call when for the first time Iger addressed potential sub erosion at the giant cash flowing property ESPN. Since then, of course, it's no secret that the linear ecosystem has been in decline, and certainly Iger acknowledges that as well. IGER: I think you're seeing a migration to more digital, direct-to-consumer forms of entertainment distribution. And being in that business at a larger scale, which because I think that will provide more growth for the company than the traditional media platforms would've and just the migration, the erosion of the traditional media platforms and the growth of the new ones. We're playing in that new space much more aggressively than we would have obviously without Disney+, without Hulu as well. I think people are consuming things in much more different ways. App-based entertainment in the home has, is replacing the linear channel consumption in the home. So, when you go back to the question you asked about the future of that business, it's not bright at all. It's, it's actually eroding right before our eyes. FABER: And it continues to erode before our eyes You know, it was a long interview and opportunity to talk to Iger about so many different things, best decisions in which he sort of talked about the decision to buy Pixar and worst decisions as well where YouTube came up. IGER: I remember when YouTube was sold. One of the things I always rued, because when YouTube emerged, it was the, we didn't see that first. I'm the one who put “America's Funniest Videos” on ABC in 1989, which was user-generated content. It's kinda funny, which YouTube really started as. It's evolved tremendously. Why didn't I think of that? FABER: Yeah. Why, yeah. IGER: I don't know, I, I missed that one— FABER: You missed that one. Worth, it's worth about $300 billion now, by the way, based on its revenue if you— IGER: Well, YouTube would've been smart. FABER: It would've been. All right, so that gets me to worst decision. Is there one that comes to mind in terms of just a really bad decision you made over those 16-plus years? IGER: I made some bad decisions. Fortunately, they weren't monumental or they woulda, brought me, me down. So I can't really think of, like, the worst decision. I made some bonehead creative decisions along way, you know, greenlit some things that I probably shouldn't have. I mean— FABER: All right, yeah, but saying yes-- IGER: But that's kinda easy. FABER: To Cop Rock is not exactly the worst decision you're gonna make. IGER: You know, I’m, I'm, there's, that's actually, it's interesting, I try to be honest and candid, both in terms of assessment and myself. I definitely made a bunch of bad decisions. Sometimes people, sometimes product, nothing gigantic. FABER: Nothing gigantic? IGER: No. FABER: And nothing comes to mind at all that you can share? IGER: A buncha little things. FABER: Just little things. IGER: Yeah. FABER: So I guess that's a pretty good tenure then, if it's a buncha little things-- IGER: Well, I lasted a long time, so I guess, I suggest I didn't make any really bad, any big, bad decisions. Updated on Dec 21, 2021, 12:33 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkDec 21st, 2021

Top 5 Stocks to Gain in 2022 From U.S. Infrastructure Spending

We have narrowed our search to five stocks that are likely to gain from the Biden administration's infrastructure development legislation. These are: CLFD, CR, CMC, ALTR and TMST. Wall Street has been suffering since Black Friday as the resurgence of coronavirus with its new variant – Omicron – has shaken market participants’ confidence across the globe. Market participants seem nervous as the coronavirus-led massive fiscal stimulus has ended and the Fed has decided to systematically eliminate the monetary stimulus paving the path for the first rate hike next year since March 2020.At this stage, the new law of the Biden administration to spend $1 trillion in infrastructure development will act as a new catalyst for Wall Street. Various companies will gain from this project. Notable among them are Commercial Metals Co. CMC, Crane Co. CR, Altair Engineering Inc. ALTR Clearfield Inc. CLFD and TimkenSteel Corp. TMST.Biden's Infrastructure ProjectOn Nov 15, President Joe Biden signed a bipartisan infrastructure bill of $550 billion in addition to the previously approved funds of $450 billion for five years. With this the bill has become a new law. The law aims at establishing the United States with the world's best economic infrastructure. Total spending may go up to $1.2 trillion if the plan is extended to eight years.The infrastructure development law will provide $100 billion toward roads, bridges and other major projects. It will invest $66 billion in freight and passenger rail, including potential upgrades to Amtrak. The project will provide $11 billion toward reducing car crashes and fatalities through a “Safe Streets for All” program. The law allocates $39 billion to modernize public transit and improve access for disabled people.In addition, the law has proposed $66 billion for passenger and freight rail, $15 billion for electric vehicles and buses, and $17 billion for airports, ports and waterways. The project will invest $50 billion in water infrastructure and $55 billion in clean water projects. Moreover, $65 billion will be invested in high-speed Internet (broadband), $21 billion in environmental clean-up and $73 billion in Power infrastructure.Future Driver for Wall StreetThe newly introduced massive infrastructure development project will be a major catalyst for the U.S. stock markets in 2022. Various segments of the economy such as basic materials, industrials, telecommunications and utilities will benefit immensely with more job creation for the economy.Moreover, the White House has also put pressure on U.S. Congress to quickly pass legislation providing $52 billion to help computer chip manufacturers and ease the shortage of components vital for a range of industries.’The global economy is still suffering from the woods of different variants of coronavirus and the United States is no exception. Moreover, the inflation rate in the United States has soared to a level highest in four decades.In the absence of the pandemic-induced fiscal and monetary stimulus, the two above-mentioned developmental plans of the Biden administration, infrastructure projects and the proposed CHIPS Act to usher in a resurgence of semiconductor manufacturing in the United States, will play the role of the stock market’s future catalysts.Our Top PicksWe narrowed our search to five stocks that are likely to gain from the Biden administration’s infrastructure development legislation. These companies have strong growth potential for 2022 and have seen positive earnings estimate revisions in the last 60 days. Each of our picks carries either a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The chart below shows the price performance of our five picks in the past three months.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchCommercial Metals is poised to gain on robust steel demand, stemming from elevated spending on the residential and construction sector in North America and recovery in the manufacturing sector. Steel sales volumes in Europe are anticipated to remain healthy on increasing demand from the construction and industrial end market.Construction activity in Poland remains particularly strong aided by the residential markets. These factors will boost steel shipment levels in North America and Europe, and support CMC’s results in fiscal 2022.Zacks Rank #2 CMC has an expected earnings growth rate of 10.5% for the current year (ending August 2022). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improved 0.5% over the last 7 days.Crane manufactures and sells engineered industrial products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, and internationally. Crane Co. is poised to benefit from its diverse portfolio and efficient management team. CR has exposure in many end markets like non-residential construction, aerospace, electronics, automated payment solutions, chemical, power and various general industries.Zacks Rank #2 CR has an expected earnings growth rate of 13.2% for next year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its next-year earnings has improved 4% over the last 60 days.Clearfield designs and manufactures the FieldSmart fiber management platform including its latest generation Fiber Distribution System and Fiber Scalability Center. CLFD also provides a complete line of fiber and copper assemblies for controlled and outside plant environments.Zacks Rank #1 Clearfield has an expected earnings growth rate of 25.9% for the current year (ending September 2022). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 8.8% over the last 60 days.TimkenSteel  is engaged in manufacturing alloy steel, along with carbon and micro-alloy steel. TMST provides air-melted alloy steel bars, tubes, and precision components, as well as value-added services, including thermal treatment and machining in the United States and internationally. TimkenSteel operates in the SBQ Steel Bar, Seamless Mechanical Steel Tubes, and Billets; and Value-added Precision Products and Services segments.Zacks Rank #1 TimkenSteel has an expected earnings growth rate of 0.7% for next year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings has improved 10.2% over the last 60 days.Altair Engineering is focused on the development and broad application of simulation technology to synthesize and optimize designs, processes and decisions for business performance. Altair Engineering operates through two segments, Software and Client Engineering Services.Zacks Rank #2 ALTR has an expected earnings growth rate of 12.3% for next year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings has improved 4.9% over the last 60 days.Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Altair Engineering Inc. (ALTR): Free Stock Analysis Report Commercial Metals Company (CMC): Free Stock Analysis Report Crane Co. (CR): Free Stock Analysis Report Timken Steel Corporation (TMST): Free Stock Analysis Report Clearfield, Inc. (CLFD): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 21st, 2021

Here are the top 10 stocks bought by retail traders in 2021

Apple was the most purchased stock this year by retail traders, helping put the company on track toward a $3 trillion valuation. Apple was the most-purchased stock by retail investors in 2021, according to Vanda Research.  AMC and Alibaba were the only two consumer services sector companies to make the tech-dominated list   The list is a mix of tech heavyweights and meme stocks but GameStop missed the cut.  This year will stand out as one of major influence by retail investors on Wall Street, marked by the rally in so-called meme stocks that kicked off 2021 as investors banded together to fend off hedge funds shorting stocks including AMC and GameStop. Here are the Top 10 stocks purchased by retail investors during 2021, according to Vanda Research. The company's research tool tracks activity among such investors in more than 9,000 stocks and ETFs listed in the US. 1) Apple (AAPL)Net purchases: $11.91 billionYear-to-performance: up 29%Carlos Garcia Rawlins/ReutersThe tech behemoth is moving closer to hitting a $3 trillion market capitalization, which would be the first company in the world to reach that milestone. Ongoing global supply-chain problems have hurt iPhone production but the stock has managed to forge ahead. The stock has two forces in its corner: a 'cult following' among amateur investors and the company's $90 billion share buyback program, Vanda said earlier this month. 2) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Net purchases: $7.39 billion Year-to-date performance: up 50%A screenshot from AMD's website showing embedded graphics products amd chips techAMDThe stock was off its highs of the year but it had a monster rally of nearly 40% during November. Investors propelled it higher after the chipmaker raised its 2021 revenue outlook and beat third-quarter expectations.3) NIO Net purchases: $6.8 billion Year-to-date performance: down 38%The Nio lineup.Nio The Chinese electric vehicle maker recently has turned in record delivery figures that helped the stock price to all-time highs. But the stock has also run lower alongside other US-listed shares of Chinese companies in the wake of news Beijing-based ride-hailing company Didi's delisting less than six months after its US debut.4) AMC Entertainment (AMC)Net purchases: $4.07 billion Year-to-date performance: up 1,273%AMC CEO Adam AronREUTERS/Mario AnzuoniThe movie-theater chain has been on a wild ride as part of the wider focus on meme stocks driven by retail investors this year. The company was hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic but movie screens are back open and AMC CEO Adam Aron has kept engagement with retail investors alive in his communication on Twitter.5) Palantir (PLTR) Net purchases: $3.6 billion Year-to-date performance: down 19%Palantir logo on the New York Stock Exchange.Noam Galai/Getty ImagesThe data-mining company with defense contracts is one of the most-mentioned stocks among investors in the WallStreetBets community. As the year comes to a close, the company reportedly said it's working on shifting its UK metadata processing out of the US as privacy regulations tighten worldwide. 6) Verizon (VZ) Net purchases: $3.07 billion Year-to-date performance: down 9.5%THOR vehicle prototypeVerizonShares of Verizon like other telecom stocks are lower this year but the largest mobile carrier in the US did turn in better-than-expected earnings for the third quarter. 7) Microsoft (MSFT) Net purchases: $2.89 billion Year-to-date performance: up 46%Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.Manjunath Kiran/AFP via Getty ImagesThe software maker has been among big winners during the coronavirus pandemic, with its stock price rising on the success of its Azure cloud business and as people rely more heavily on its suite of services in the shift to remote work. 8) Tesla (TSLA) Net purchases: $2.74 billion Year-to-date performance: up 32%Tesla CEO Elon Musk walks in front of a Model Y image in Shanghai.Aly Song/ReutersDelivery of Tesla cars has been on the rise this year but much focus lately has been on CEO Elon Musk who has been selling shares in a bid to reduce his tax liability. 9) Nvidia (NVDA) Net purchases: $2.58 billion Year-to-date performance: up 113%A screenshot of Nvidia's series of GEFORCE RTX 30 graphic cards NVDA graphics chips techNvidiaGlobal supply-chain issues have pressured Nvidia's shares during the year but blowout earnings result for the GPU manufacturer in the second quarter have aided overall gains. The company has also broadcast its vision for the metaverse and other gaming-related projects. 10) Alibaba (BABA) Net purchases: $2.44 billion Year-to-date performance: down 49%Alibaba went public on the NYSE in 2014.Andrew Burton/Getty ImagesShares of Chinese retail heavyweight have taken a hit largely as the Chinese government imposed regulatory crackdowns on a range of industries and as founder Jack Ma has been under scrutiny in Beijing. As for ETFs, retail traders piled into funds tracking the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. The top 10 most traded ETFs this year were: SPY, QQQ, TQQQ, LQD, TNA, IWM, TIP, SPXL, VTI and EMB. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytDec 20th, 2021

Stocks, Futures, Oil Tumble On Omicron Lockdowns, Manchin Shockwave

Stocks, Futures, Oil Tumble On Omicron Lockdowns, Manchin Shockwave Global stocks and US equity futures are sharply lower to start the otherwise very quiet holiday week, dragged lower by Manchin's shock decision to kill Biden's economic agenda (which Goldman said would cut US Q1 GDP from 3% to 2%), accelerating government measures to counter the fast-spreading omicron variant and fears over the growth outlook amid a tightening Fed. US equity futures tumbled almost 100 points from their Friday close (and more than 200 points from Thursday's all time high before paring some losses buoyed by optimism from news that Moderna’s booster vaccine increases antibodies 37-fold against omicron. Treasury yields also pared a sharp drop as low as 1.35% and the dollar held a jump from Friday, while crude oil slid on worries that mobility curbs to tackle the strain will hurt demand. As of 730am S&P 500 futures were down down 1.1%, Nasdaq 100 -1.3%, and Dow -1.0%. Global stocks have retreated from record highs in recent weeks amid concerns about Covid-19 hurting the economic recovery and as central banks pivot toward fighting inflation. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said a faster wind-down of the central bank’s bond-buying program puts it in a position to start lifting interest rates as early as March. “In our view, markets can look through omicron concerns, and the gradual pace of monetary tightening won’t bring the equity rally to an end,” UBS Global Wealth Management wrote in a note. “Overall, the latest news does not change our outlook for equities.” Luke Hickmore, investment director at Standard Life Investments, also recommended buying the dip. “The prospects for growth will improve rapidly from here,” he said. “The market will likely see a recovery in the new year when liquidity returns.” In the weekend's biggest news, senator Joe Manchin blindsided the White House on Sunday by rejecting Biden’s $1.75 trillion tax-and-spending package, prompting a sharply critical statement from the White House which called Manchin’s decision a “sudden and inexplicable reversal.”  Biden and top Democrats must now regroup to see if a scaled-back version remains possible with little more than 10 months before midterm elections that will decide control of Congress. As noted late last night, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecast for U.S. economic growth for next year after Manchin’s move (more below). On Monday, Chuck Schumer said the Senate will still vote “very early” in 2022 on Biden’s economic agenda, although it was unclear just what the new plan will look like now that Build Back Better is dead. Not helping matters were the latest development in the Omicron front where the biggest European countries are introducing more curbs, with U.K. officials keeping open the possiblity of stronger measures before Christmas and the Netherlands returning to lockdown, even as Biden’s chief medical advisor said further U.S. lockdowns are unlikely. In some "good" news, said a third dose of its Covid-19 vaccine saw a 37-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies against omicron. Ironically. While investors remain on edge over the outlook for economic activity, there remains little evidence that the new variant causes illness as severe as the delta variant, especially among those already vaccinated. “The main reason behind the market sell off today is the rejection of Biden’s $2 trillion tax-and-spending package, which will lead to a reduction in U.S. economic growth forecasts,” said Michel Keusch, a portfolio manager at Bellevue Asset Management. “With trading volumes getting thinner and thinner into the year end, this is the catalyst creating some short-term nervousness.”  Then there are tightening concerns: the Federal Reserve’s decision to increase the pace of tapering last week is also adding to investor nerves about the outlook for 2022. And now, without either fiscal or monetary support, economists see a policy-induced slowdown in the economy where Goldman on Sunday cut its real GDP forecast for 2022: 2% in Q1 (vs. 3% prior), 3% in Q2 (vs. 3.5% prior), and 2.75% in Q3 (vs. 3% prior). One place which is convinced the Fed will not meet its targets it the bond market where traders of eurodollar futures price rates much lower than FOMC targets for the end of 2023 and 2024. Finally, as Bloomberg notes, there is also the issue of divergent global monetary policy to contend with, as the People’s Bank of China stepped up easing overnight with the first rate cut in 20 months. Looking at the premarket, travel stocks fell the most with United Airlines down 3.4% leading declines among major U.S. carriers, while a 4% slide in Royal Caribbean Cruises led the fall among cruise operators. Energy and industrial bellwethers also declined, with Chevron, 3M and Caterpillar falling over 2% each. Major U.S. tech and internet stocks slumped hitting shares in most highly valued names, as well as in cyclicals. Apple fell as much as 2.1% premarket while fellow large- cap tech names also drop, with Facebook-owner Meta Platforms down 1.9%, Alphabet -1.2%, Amazon.com -1.7%, Twitter -2.1%, Microsoft -1.6%. Here are some of the other big U.S. movers today: Major U.S. tech and internet stocks drop in premarket trading as risk appetite sours globally amid worries over further pandemic- related restrictions, hitting shares in most highly valued names, as well as in cyclicals. Shares in U.S. renewables firms drop in premarket after U.S. Senator Joe Manchin’s surprise rejection of President Joe Biden’s $2 trillion package. Moderna (MRNA US) rises 6% in U.S. premarket after the company said that a booster dose of its Covid-19 vaccine increased antibody levels against the omicron variant. Society Pass (SOPA US) surges 22% in premarket after the loyalty platform operator said in a statement it has been added to the Russell 2000 Index. Boston Beer (SAM US) upgraded to hold at Jefferies following pullback of more than 60% in the shares related to “massive” reset in expectations for hard seltzers, removing the only negative rating on the stock. Shares up 0.3% on low volume in premarket. "After battling endless headwinds in recent weeks, markets have finally been knocked over as the rapid spread of Omicron finally reaches panic mode," Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, wrote in a client note. Europe's Stoxx 600 also stumbled, now down about 1.4% after falling as much as 2.6%, weighed down the most by travel and insurance. All sectors are in red. FTSE 100 recovers slightly as energy gets a leg up, but is still off by 1.2%. Dax -2%. Germany’s new coalition government picked Joachim Nagel, a Bank for International Settlements official, as the central bank’s next president. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were set for the biggest drop since March, as the spread of the omicron variant and a surprising setback to U.S. President Joe Biden’s economic agenda forced traders to take bets off the table. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank as much as 2%, headed for its lowest close since November 2020, with tech and consumer shares the biggest drags. Relatively thin trading ahead of the year-end exacerbated declines in the region, as investors grapple with fresh outbreaks of Covid-19 and monetary policy tightening globally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down about 15% from a peak in February, compared with an 18% gain in the S&P 500. “Omicron’s spread over the festive holidays and Manchin” are driving the risk-off mood, said Wai Ho Leong, strategist at Modular Asset Management (Singapore). “But most of all, it is the lack of liquidity in all markets.” India was the worst performer around the region, with its benchmark index poised to enter a correction amid the spread of the omicron variant. Chinese stocks also dropped despite a cut to bank borrowing costs for the first time in 20 months In FX, the dollar reversed gains and was little changed. The pound fell in line with other risk- sensitive currencies as global market sentiment soured; gilts advanced. Hedging the major currencies over the next month comes at a similar cost, yet the pound turns expensive further out as it holds a higher beta on monetary policy divergence. The Australian and New Zealand dollars followed a broader move lower in commodity FX amid a slide in oil and stocks. The yen advanced with Japanese government bonds. The lira tumbled to another record low after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pledged to continue cutting interest rates. In rates, Treasury yields fell by ~3bp in 5-year sector, steepening 5s30s spread by 3bp on the day as long-end yields were little changed; 10-year yields 1bp lower around 1.39%, outperforming bunds and gilts. Treasuries drifted higher Monday as global stocks extended losses. Gains were led by front- and belly of the curve, while eurodollars advanced and the amount of Federal Reserve rate-hike premium for 2024 and 2024 eased. Long-end lagged the move ahead of a 20-year bond auction Tuesday.  Bund and gilt curves are mixed. Italy lags in the peripheral complex, widening ~2bps to Germany. In commodities, Brent crude extends dropped to trade down as much as 5.3%, trading as low as $69.60/bbl before paring some losses, with Brent down 3% to $71 per barrel, and WTI -4% to around the $68-handle. Spot gold drifts below the $1,800-handle. Base metals complex under pressure; LME aluminum and nickel decline the most.  There is nothing on the economic calendar today except that Nov. Leading Index, which is estimated to print at  0.9%. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 1.6% to 4,535.75 MXAP down 1.8% to 187.95 MXAPJ down 1.8% to 607.98 Nikkei down 2.1% to 27,937.81 Topix down 2.2% to 1,941.33 Hang Seng Index down 1.9% to 22,744.86 Shanghai Composite down 1.1% to 3,593.60 Sensex down 2.0% to 55,848.23 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,292.16 Kospi down 1.8% to 2,963.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 2.2% to 463.29 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.40% Euro up 0.2% to $1.1259 Brent Futures down 3.9% to $70.67/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,800.19 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.61 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg President Joe Biden faces the unexpected task of quickly rewriting his policy agenda in a crucial election year after a key Senate Democrat abruptly rejected his signature $1.75 trillion economic plan Germany’s new coalition government picked Joachim Nagel, a former Bundesbank senior official, as the central bank’s next chief, according to a person with knowledge of the matter The ECB will not raise interest rates in 2022 if inflation behaves as expected, governing council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos told Expansion newspaper in an interview Europe’s biggest countries are introducing more curbs to fight a surge in Covid-19 infections, from another lockdown in the Netherlands to stricter travel restrictions at the height of the holiday period Chinese property stocks tumbled close to a fresh five-year low after a series of asset sales underscored concern that equity investors will bear the brunt of losses as developers offload projects to repay debt Chinese banks lowered borrowing costs for the first time in 20 months, foreshadowing more monetary support to an economy showing strain from a property slump, weak private consumption and sporadic virus outbreaks A more detail look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac equities traded mostly lower following the volatile session on Wall Street on Friday, which saw the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all posting varying degrees of losses, whilst the Russell 2000 outperformed with decent gains. Overnight, US equity futures opened with a mild upside bias, albeit the optimism faded in early trade as risk aversion materialised, with the ES Mar 2022 contract falling below its 50 DMA (4,596) whilst the NQ and RTY saw losses of over 1% apiece. Sentiment was hit by the slew of concerning COVID headlines over the weekend, whilst Friday saw further hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials - with Fed’s Waller suggesting the whole point of accelerating the bond taper was to make the March Fed meeting a live meeting for the first hike, and under his base case March is very likely for lift-off, although it could be pushed back to May. The ASX 200 (-0.3%) was pressured by some large-cap miners and banks, whilst the Nikkei 225 (-2.1%) and KOSPI (-1.8%) conformed to the downbeat tone, with upside in the former also capped by recent JPY strength. The Hang Seng (-1.9%) and Shanghai Comp (-1.1%) initially saw shallower losses after the PBoC opted to cut the 1yr Loan Prime Rate by 5bps, whilst the 5yr rate was maintained, although the property sector faced more woes after S&P downgraded Evergrande to Selective Default, whilst Kaisa shares slumped after trade resumed following a two-week hiatus, with the Co. in discussions regarding a debt restructuring plan. The Hang Seng dipped below 23,000 for the first time since May 2020. Elsewhere, US 10yr futures continued edging higher as APAC risk aversion supported the haven, whilst Goldman Sachs also cut its US real GDP Growth forecasts on the Build Back Better blockade. Top Asian News Coal India Defends Quality Level of Shipments After Complaints Hong Kong Eyes New Security Law After Electing Loyalist Council Asian Stocks Drop to Lowest in 13 Months on Virus Woes, Manchin Best Way for China to Lower Market Rates is to Sell Yuan: Nomura European bourses commenced the week on the backfoot, continuing the broad pressure seen in APAC trade, as focus is firmly fixed on the Omicron variant. The downside in APAC hours was also a feature of the choppy trade in the US on Friday, and amid non-COVID catalysts such as US Senator Manchin presenting a stumbling block to BBB which effectively ends the chances it can be passed this year, while hawkish central banks is also a theme traders are cognizant of for next year. Euro Stoxx 50 -1.4%, benchmarks are lower across the board as further COVID-19 restrictions are imposed/touted; thus far, the most stringent has seen the Netherlands return to lockdowns, while the likes of the UK and Germany are mulling measures. Vaccine producer Moderna (+5.5% in premarket trade) released preliminary booster data vs Omicron, which saw a modest paring of the risk-off conditions; the vaccine boosts neutralising antibody levels by 37-fold vs pre-boost levels. All sectors remain in the red however, with underperformance in those most exposed to COVID restrictions, such as Travel & Leisure, Oil & Gas and Autos. Individual movers were predominantly dictated by the broader price action; however, THG (+12.5%) is the morning’s outperformer following reports that a notable short on the name has removed its position. Meanwhile, US futures are softer across the board (ES -1.3%) ahead of a very sparse docket where focus will, as it is in European hours, centre around the fiscal narrative and COVID. On the latter, President Biden is due to speak on the situation on Tuesday, calling for individuals to get vaccinated. Top European News Johnson Appoints Truss to Key Brexit Role After Torrid Week Germany Picks Bundesbank Veteran Nagel as Central Bank Chief Czech Billionaire Family Faces Final Showdown Over Bank Merger Flashpoints That May Heal or Deepen the Lira’s Pain in 2022 In FX, the Dollar is mixed across the board, but retaining an upward bias overall amidst greater gains vs high beta, activity and cyclical currencies compared to losses against safer havens as broad risk sentiment sours on a number of factors, but mainly COVID-19. Hence, the index is holding quite firmly above 96.500 within a 96.504-680 range even though US Treasury yields are soft and the curve is marginally flatter, with traction or the Greenback coming via hawkish comments in wake of last week’s FOMC from Fed’s Waller who would not object to lifting rates as soon as tapering is done next March. Ahead, a very sparse Monday agenda only comprises November’s leading index. JPY/EUR/CHF/XAU - As noted above, risk-off positioning due to the ongoing spread of Omicron has prompted demand for the Yen, the Euro, with added momentum from bullish Eur/Gbp cross flows, plus the Franc and Gold to lesser extents. Usd/Jpy is tethered around 113.50 in response, though unhindered by imposing option expiries in contrast to last Friday and the headline pair capped by technical resistance in the form of 21 and 50 DMAs that come in at 113.77 and 113.83 respectively today. Meanwhile, Eur/Usd is back above 1.1250 amidst mixed ECB vibes as de Cos underscores guidance for no hikes in 2022, but sources say that GC hawks wanted explicit recognition of upside inflation risks and were shouted down by chief economist Lane. However, Eur/Gbp has bounced even more firmly from sub-0.8500 lows on what looks like a combination of early year end demand or RHS orders and Pound underperformance on pandemic, political and Brexit-related factors. Elsewhere, Usd/Chf is hovering mostly sub-0.9250 and Eur/Chf is pivoting 1.0400 with latest weekly Swiss sight deposits showing no sign of intervention and Gold is rotating around Usd 1800/oz after a false upside breach of Usd 1810, but not quite enough follow-through buying to scale another upside target circa Usd 1815. GBP/AUD/NZD/CAD - The major fall guys, as Sterling loses 1.3200+ status yet again on all the aforementioned negatives, and also feels some contagion from weakness in Brent, while the Aussie is straddling 0.7100, the Kiwi is trying to keep its head above 0.6700 and the Loonie contain declines through 1.2900 alongside the latest retracement in WTI. In commodities, WTI and Brent are also risk-off, moving in tandem with the equity action, on the COVID-19 narrative and implementation/prospect of further restrictions hitting the demand-side of the equation. WTI relinquishes USD 67.00/bbl and Brent gave up the USD 70.00/bbl level. In fitting the broader market move, some easing of the initial downside was seen post-Moderna’s update. Elsewhere, in crude specifics, Libya’s NOC confirmed reports that the Petroleum Facilities Guard was blocking several fields in the region; some suggest production of oil has dropped to 950k BPD due to losses of production at El Sharara field (estimated at 280k BPD). Elsewhere, OPEC+ compliance has reportedly increased marginally in November, in-fitting with the assessments in earlier sourced reports. In metals, spot gold and silver are contained on the session with little evidence of risk-off making its self-known at this point in time, with the yellow metal pivoting USD 1800/oz. Elsewhere, copper is impacted on the risk tone but offset somewhat by Chile’s President-elect Boric saying he will oppose the Dominga copper-iron mine project. US Event Calendar 10am: Nov. Leading Index, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap As we arrive at the final week before Christmas, there’s plenty of newsflow from the weekend for markets to digest this morning. In particular, there was the announcement from the US that Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia wouldn’t be able to support the Build Back Better Bill, which has been the subject of intense negotiations over recent weeks and marks a significant blow for President Biden’s economic agenda. Meanwhile on the Covid front, there was a further ratcheting up of concerns about the Omicron variant, with the Netherlands becoming the latest European country to go back into lockdown as of yesterday, as cases continue to spread elsewhere. But otherwise, the events calendar is looking fairly quiet for now in this holiday-shortened week, with just a few lower-tier data releases and the occasional central bank speaker. We’ll start with Omicron, since that remains one of the biggest issues for markets right now and has significantly clouded the outlook moving into year-end. In a nutshell, the news over the weekend from Europe has only pointed in the direction of further restrictions across multiple countries, with the Netherlands being the most severe as a full lockdown was announced by the Prime Minister on Saturday that leaves just supermarkets and essential shops open, with even schools shut. When it comes to socialising, people will not be allowed to receive more than 2 visitors aged 13 and over per day, although over 24-26 December, New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, this will be raised to 4 people. Elsewhere in Europe there was a similar pattern towards tougher measures, with the Irish PM announcing on Friday evening that there would be an 8pm closing time for bars, restaurants and theatres, among others, which would last from today until January 30. Over in Spain, Prime Minister Sánchez said in a televised address yesterday that he’d be meeting with regional leaders virtually on Wednesday to look at measures for the weeks ahead. In Italy, it’s been widely reported that the government is looking at further measures to contain the spread as well, and they’re set to meet on Thursday to discuss these, whilst here in the UK, Health Secretary Javid was not ruling out further restrictions this side of Christmas. Separately in the US, President Biden is set to deliver a speech tomorrow about Covid and the steps that the administration will be taking, with Press Secretary Jen Psaki tweeting that Biden would also be “issuing a stark warning of what the winter will look like for Americans that choose to remain unvaccinated.” For those after a bit more optimism ahead of Christmas, then a couple of DB research notes out on Friday about the new variant will definitely be of interest. The first by FX Strategist Shreyas Gopal (link here) looks at London, which is the epicentre of Omicron infections in the UK, and tracks cases there against those in the South African province of Gauteng a couple of weeks back. The good news is that if the relationship is similar, then that does suggest a peak in cases soon. The other note comes from our head of rates research Francis Yared (link here) who shows that although deaths are starting to increase in South Africa, they’re currently on a much lower trajectory relative to cases compared to previous waves. An important question for markets is whether these patterns from South Africa can be extrapolated over to the advanced economies, which have much higher vaccination rates on the one hand, but also much older populations on the other, so there are factors that could push in either direction. Keep an eye out on these leading indicators from South Africa, as well as London, since they’ll have implications for what could occur in the coming weeks elsewhere. Away from Covid, the other main piece of news over the weekend came from the US, where the moderate Democratic senator Joe Manchin said that he couldn’t support the Build Back Better package that forms a key part of President Biden’s economic agenda, with much of his proposals on social programs and climate change. The news broke in an interview from Manchin on Fox News Sunday, when Manchin said “I can’t get there” when it comes to supporting the package, and follows direct negotiations that he’d been having with the president. Manchin’s support is crucial for the bill’s passage, since the Senate is split 50-50 between the Democrats and Republicans, with the Democrats having control only by virtue of Vice President Harris’ casting vote. So with zero Republican support for the package, that required every single Democratic senator on board with the proposals, giving Manchin enormous influence. A statement from White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki in response to Manchin did not sound impressed, saying that his comments “are at odds with his discussions this week with the President, with White House staff, and with his own public utterances.” It went on to say that “we will continue to press him to see if he will reverse his position yet again, to honor his prior commitments and be true to his word.” Nevertheless, Manchin’s own written statement wasn’t using the language of compromise, saying that his “Democratic colleagues in Washington are determined to dramatically reshape our society in a way that leaves our country even more vulnerable to the threats we face.” So the implication from Manchin is that Build Back Better won’t be happening this side of the mid-terms in its current form, and would require a fundamental rethink and meaningful slimming down were it to have any chance of passing. Those twin factors of further Omicron restrictions and Manchin’s announcement have weighed heavily on Asian equities overnight, with the Nikkei (-2.17%), KOSPI (-1.66%), Hang Seng (-1.44%), CSI (-0.98%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.75%) all moving lower. In India, the benchmark NIFTY is also down 10% from its peak in October, putting the index in correction territory. However, we did get a policy easing in China, with banks lowering the 1yr prime rate by -5bps to 3.8%. That move came alongside separate remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda, who said it was too early to think about policy normalisation, and that discussion should take place once inflation is closer to the 2% target. European and US equities are set to follow Asia lower later on, with futures on both the S&P 500 (-0.97%) and the DAX (-1.63%) both pointing lower this morning. And oil prices been struggling overnight as well in light of the recent virus news, with Brent Crude down -3.02% to $71.30/bbl at time of writing. Recapping last week now, and the main events were the array of central bank meetings ahead of the holidays. In the US, the Fed doubled the pace of their tapering as expected, which would bring net asset purchases to an end in mid-March, and the median dot now expects three rate hikes in 2022. By the close on Friday, Fed funds futures were pricing in a 55% chance of an initial hike by the March meeting, and an 87% chance of one by the May meeting. The ECB was then up next, and started a wind down of net PEPP purchases that are also set to finish in March next year. The ECB is cushioning the landing though, having moved to increase APP purchases until October next year after PEPP ends, following which they’ll maintain a pace of €20bn a month until shortly before liftoff. The ECB maintained some policy optionality through flexibility on PEPP reinvestments, which our Europe economists read as a commitment to smoothing the transmission of monetary policy. In the UK, the BoE hiked Bank Rate by +15bps to 0.25%. The MPC noted the decision was finely balanced due to Covid uncertainty, but the vote was still 8-1 in favour of a hike. Over in Japan, the BoJ rounded out the major DM central bank meetings, keeping rates unchanged and announcing a slow reduction in corporate debt holdings. At the same time, they extended a special covid loans program targeted at small and medium-sized firms to September 2022. When all was said and done, many sovereign bond yields actually ended the week lower, even with the hawkish pivot from the various central banks. 10yr yields on Treasuries (-8.2bps) and bunds (-3.1bps) both declined, although those on gilts did post a small +1.7bps gain over the week. Meanwhile growing Covid pessimism served to dampen risk appetite and send global equity indices lower last week. By Friday the S&P 500 (-1.94%) had fallen for the 3rd week out of the last 4, hampered by an underperformance from tech stocks that saw the NASDAQ (-2.95%) and the FANG+ index (-4.53%) both lose significant ground. Over in Europe the moves were smaller, albeit still lower, and the STOXX 600 ended the week -0.35%.   Tyler Durden Mon, 12/20/2021 - 08:02.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 20th, 2021