Advertisements



Lattice Semiconductor initiated with a Hold at WestPark Capital

See the rest of the story here. Theflyonthewall.com provides the latest financial news as it breaks. Known as a leader in market intelligence, The Fl.....»»

Category: blogSource: theflyonthewallMay 25th, 2021

Welcome To The Central Bank Hotel, Once Inside You Can Never Leave

Welcome To The Central Bank Hotel, Once Inside You Can Never Leave Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, Central bank digital currencies are on the way. The German Central Bank just embraced a digital euro. Let's discuss the risks... Fintech and Global Payments  Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank gave the opening speech at the digital conference “Fintech and the global payments landscape – exploring new horizons” Exploring a Digital Euro The title of Weidmann speech was Exploring a Digital Euro.  Emphasis mine with my thoughts in braces [ ] Paper money, for instance, was first introduced in China about a thousand years ago. This innovation eventually transformed the payments system. Today, digitalisation is on the cusp of overhauling payments. Central banks have to work out how to respond to this challenge. One possibility is the issuing of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). According to a survey by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the share of central banks conducting work on CBDC for general or wholesale use rose to 86% last year. Many of them have made significant progress. Two months ago, the Eurosystem launched a project to investigate key questions regarding the design of a CBDC for the euro area. The aim of the investigation is to prepare us for the potential launch of a digital euro. Experiments have already shown that, in principle, a digital euro is feasible using existing technologies. As my ECB colleague Fabio Panetta has stressed, a digital euro would have “no liquidity risk, no credit risk, no market risk,” in this way resembling cash. [No Risk? Really]  The protection of privacy would thus be a key priority in terms of maintaining people’s trust. European data protection rules would have to be complied with. Nevertheless, a digital euro would not be as anonymous as cash. In order to prevent illicit activities such as money laundering or terrorist financing, legitimate authorities would have to be able to trace transactions in individual, justified cases. [Every Case] But designing CBDC involves curbing its risks. In order to prevent excessive withdrawals of bank deposits, it has been suggested that a cap be placed on the amount of digital euro that each individual can hold. Or that digital euro holdings in excess of a certain limit could be rendered unattractive by applying a penalty interest rate. [No Risk? I thought you said there was no risk.] If a digital euro were accessible for non-residents, this could impact on capital flows and euro exchange rates. What this calls for is international and multilateral collaboration. [Wait a second, is this another risk?] Self-reinforcing loops and “lock-in” effects may tie users to one platform and exclude competitors. Some observers have been reminded of “Hotel California”, the famous song by the American rock band “The Eagles”: it’s such a lovely place, with plenty of room; but once inside you can never leave. [Hotel Central Bank: Once inside you can never leave.] The Eurosystem has no commercial interest in user data or behaviour. A digital euro could therefore help to safeguard what has always been the essence of money: trust. [Ah yes, trust that interest rates won't go even more negative, money won't expire, and withdrawals won't be capped]. Central banks need to be at the cutting edge of technology. Otherwise, they cannot provide the backbone of payment systems and offer safe and trusted money for the digital age. This has prompted all major central banks to start exploring issuance of CBDC. However, our success as a money creator will depend not so much on speed, but on the trust of those who are supposed to use the money. Europe Moving Ahead It appears Europe is moving ahead faster than the Fed.  The risks are obvious. Expiring Money Increasingly Negative Interest Rates Withdrawals Capped Withdrawals Taxed  Gifts Taxed And once inside you can never leave.  Livin' it up at the Hotel Fedifornia has a nice ring to it. ECBifornia isn't as catchy.  * * * Like these reports? If so, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts. Tyler Durden Sat, 09/25/2021 - 13:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 25th, 2021

Why Is Gold Not Rising?

Why Is Gold Not Rising? Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Many are asking why gold is not rising, as just about every other commodity makes new highs in the backdrop of inflationary tailwinds. That’s a very fair question. Some are even saying gold is dead, a silly and “barbarous” old relic of ancient times, ancient math and ancient common sense. Needless to say, we beg to differ, not because we are Swiss-based gold bugs, but simply…well… let’s explain. Current Price vs. Current and Future Roles For those who see history and math as guides rather than “barbarous” and outdated disciplines, their convictions regarding gold’s role, and even price trajectory, do not wane or rise simply due to the paper price of gold. To some extent, and despite Basel 3, gold remains openly manipulated by a handful of central and bullion banks who are terrified of gold’s shine for no other reason than it embarrasses currencies (and mad monetary experiments) falling deeper into discredit. But we track the movement of physical gold every day, and can say with blunt clarity that the paper trade in gold has zero to do with the those otherwise “barbarous” forces of the actual supply and demand of this precious metal. Zero. In short, the paper price of gold has become a fiction accepted as reality, which is not surprising in a financial landscape (i.e., historically over-valued stocks, negative yielding bonds and central bankers allergic to transparency) which defies every measure of honest price discovery or basic capitalism. As for the never-ending gold vs. BTC debate, it would be wrong to say Bitcoin hasn’t taken (or continue to take) some market share away from gold, but at less than $1 trillion, BTC is not going to destroy gold’s $10T market share. In short, the current gold price is a less important topic than its current and future role as historical insurance against mathematically-failing financial and economic systems around the globe. That said, we are not apologists for the falling gold prices, nor do we doubt that by the end of this decade, gold will price well above $4000 per ounce and greatly reward informed investors playing the long game rather than putting green. More on that later. Gold’s Three Roles For now, let’s consider gold’s historical role as a hedge against: 1) recession risk; 2) market volatility risk; and 3) inflation/currency risk. 1. Recession Hedging As for recessions, gold is like an emotional and mathematical barometer testing the temperature of over-heated monetary expansion. As such, it moves higher even before policy makers add more inevitable “stimulus” (i.e., mouse-click fiat currencies) into the system. By the time policy makers officially announce a recession, it’s far too late for most investors to react. Fortunately, gold acts more quickly, anticipating monetary expansion even before the money printers start churning. Long before the “COVID recession” of 2020, for example, the writing was already on the wall that markets and central bankers were getting desperate. By late 2019, debt levels were off the charts, liquidity was drying up, the repo markets were drinking hundreds of billions of Fed dollars per month and an un-official QE to the tune of $60 billion per month was in full-swing. Then came COVID in March. Markets and GDP were tanking and gold was already on course to see (in dollar terms) a 25% rise in 2020, after a 19% rise in 2019. In short, as a recession hedge, gold was ahead of the central bankers in protecting investors. By the way, the Fed’s record for calling recessions and warning investors is 0 for 10… 2. Hedging Market Volatility We all remember March of 2020, when markets puked and gold fell along with it, primarily sold-off as a liquidity source for players facing margin costs which they were forced to pay off with gold holdings. As in 2008 and 2009, gold initially followed the stock ship below the waterline—though not nearly as far as BTC… But as mentioned above, gold reacted quickly, anticipating the money printing (and hence dollar debasement) to come, rising steadily for the rest of that fiscal year. Of course, stocks rose as well, thanks to the unbelievable and historically unprecedented money creation witnessed in 2020—more QE in less than a year than all of the combined QE1-QE4 and “Operation Twist” which we saw from 2009-2015. But thankfully, gold doesn’t just follow stock markets, it hedges them, as the past shows and the future will once again confirm. Such monetary stimulus creates what von Mises would call a “crack-up boom,” and near-term such liquidity is just wonderful for stocks and bonds. As we’ve written elsewhere, COVID—and the policy measures which followed– literally saved the securities bubble and made this “boom” even bigger. But the “boom”-to-volatility to sequence to come from such risk assets reaching price levels which have absolutely nothing to do with valuation will be infinitely more painful (“crack-up”) down the road for those assets than for gold the moment when, not if, this horrific financial system implodes under its own and historically un-matched weight. In short, gold will zig when the markets zag. The anti-gold crowd, of course, will smirk and hug their bonds, reminding us all that gold is a yield-less relic while forgetting to confess that the “no yield” of gold is ironically preferrable to over $19 trillion worth of negative yielding sovereign bonds… 3. Hedging Inflation & Currency Risk Which brings us to the big question of the day, why is gold not rising when it should be ripping as a hedge against what is clearly an inflationary new normal? Fair question. We are asking this ourselves, as real rates (the ideal setting for gold) fall deeper into negative depths with each new day… …as inflation, as well as inflation expectations, are on the objective rise: Last year, for example, gold saw this inflation coming and thus its rising, double-digit price moves reflected the same. But this year, with real rates still diving and inflation rising, gold is showing single single-digit losses rather than gains. What gives? The Market Still Believes the “Transitory” Meme Our ultimate opinion boils down to this: We think the market still believes the central bank myth (i.e., propaganda) that the current inflation is indeed, only “transitory.” We’ve written ad nauseum as to why inflation is anything but “transitory,” yet we can nevertheless respect the deflationists’ argument. The Deflationists The deflation camp, for example, rightly argues that recessionary forces, if left alone, are inherently deflationist, and the signs of economic (rather than market) declines are everywhere. But the key mistake which such deflation (or dis-inflation) narratives make is that these natural forces have not, nor will be, “left alone.” In other words, deflationists are somehow ignoring the monetary and fiscal elephant in the room. That is, more, not less, unnatural monetary and fiscal liquidity is entering the system at historically unprecedented levels, levels that are more than enough to quash such otherwise natural deflationary forces. Stated even more plainly, moderation at the fiscal and monetary level died long ago. Simple Realism—Inflation as Necessity Rather than Debate Central banks are desperate to reach higher inflation to inflate their way out of debt without admitting the same. This is nothing new for fork-tongued policy makers who once “targeted” 2% inflation as a ceiling, but are now effectively “allowing” 2% inflation as the new floor. Just as Nixon said the closing of the gold window was “transitory” in 1971, or as Bernanke promised that QE would be transitory in 2009, the current lie from on high about “transitory inflation” is no less a lie in 2021 as those other lies were in 1971 or 2009. Again, we all just kina know this, right? Furthermore, we just need to be realists rather than dreamers to see the inflation reality now and ahead. Central bankers, for example, may be dishonest, but they aren’t entirely stupid, just desperate and realistic. In the U.S., for example, a staggering as well as openly embarrassing $28.5 trillion public (i.e., national) debt level quickly limits one’s options at the White House or the Eccles Building. Not Many Options Other than Inflation In this realistic light, let’s consider their options. Policy makers have four tools to address such debt, namely: raise taxes, cut spending, declare bankruptcy, or devalue their currencies through inflation. The first two are already in play in the U.S., namely political efforts to raise taxes and ‘talk’ of cutting spending, both politically difficult options. Taking bankruptcy off the table, leaves devaluing the U.S. Dollar as the favored option, which is achieved by deliberately taking real interest rates to extreme negative levels. Allowing inflation to run while keeping rates low reduces the number of dollars needed to repay the debt. This hurts regular folks, but as we’ve said so many times, the Fed is not interested in regular folks. In other words, by decreasing the value of the U.S. Dollar, the U.S. is effectively paying off its current debt with devalued money. There are no permission slips needed from Congress, nor taxpayers. Given such realism, let us be repeatedly blunt and clear: Unlike gold not rising, inflation is not, nor will it be, “transitory.” Instead, deliberate inflation is an inherently and deliberately necessary tool used by the same anti-heroes who put us in this debt hole. More Fed-Speak, Less Honesty This means the Fed will come up with whatever excuses, words, phrases and lies to justify being more dovish despite publicly flirting with hawkish talk about a Fed taper. Already, Powell is taking the Fed way beyond its mandate and talking about social and environmental activism, as these are nice phrases to justify, you guessed it: More money creation and more (not “transitory”) inflation. As for me, hearing Powell talk about “labor market inequality” after the Fed has spent years making the top 1% richer at the expense of an increasingly poorer bottom-90% is so rich in hypocrisy that it makes the eyes water. In this opaque light, the notion of “Fed independence” is a complete and utter fiction. Instead, the Fed is slowly crossing the line into becoming the direct financier to the entire nation—and the only way it can do this is via monetary expansion and deliberate (as well as much higher) inflation, which is a tax on the poor and bullet to the heart of the U.S. Dollar. Period. Full stop. It’s All About Debt Again, this all comes realistically back to debt. When there’s too much unpayable debt (be it at the zombified corporate level or the embarrassed national level), rising rates becomes fatal. The Fed has learned since 2018 that even a slight rise in rates kills the debt-saturated markets whose capital gains taxes are about all that Uncle Sam can declare as income in a nation whose GDP was sold to China years ago. And yet… and yet… the markets somehow wish to believe the fantasy (and Fed-speak) that inflation is only “transitory.” What’s Ahead? We strongly think differently. As blunt realists, we see the Fed perhaps raising rates nominally, but when adjusted by openly deliberate (yet openly denied) inflation, real rates will fall deeper as inflation rises higher. This is because the simple reality (and choice) of nations with their backs against a debt wall is always the pursuit of inflation by design, not deflation. As I recently wrote, nothing is real anymore, and all taboos are broken. The Fed, through QE and/or the Repurchase Program, will print more money as fiscal policy rises alongside—a veritable double-whammy for more “liquidity” to come. This, of course, is crazy and ends badly. The Fed, along with the White House, have tried since Greenspan to outlaw natural market forces and needed austerity in order to bloat markets, keep their jobs or win re-election. Since we can never grow or default (?) our way out of the greatest debt hole in our history, the realistic playbook ahead is negative real rates—i.e., inflation rising higher and faster than repressed Treasury yields. Once this becomes obvious rather than “debated,” gold will rise along side the money supply to levels well above it’s current, yet admittedly, low price. Slowly, but surely, the $19 trillion in negative-yielding sovereign bonds will see outflows from that discredited asset and hence inflows into the “barbarous” asset: Gold. For now, we are patient realists rather than apologists, as the market seemingly continues to price gold for only “transitory” inflation. But once inflationary reality rises above the current “transitory” fantasy, gold will not only surge in price, but serve its far more important role of hedging against undeniable inflation and the equally undeniable (i.e., destructive) impact such inflation will have on global currencies in general and the U.S. Dollar in particular. Gold: Biding Its Time Despite such signposts from math, history and Real Politik, gold is currently under attack for not “doing enough,” despite two years of double-digit rises. Gold investors, however, are not greedy, they are patient, and they hold this physical rather than paper asset for the long game, as previously described. And as for that long game, the inflation ahead, as well destruction of the currency in your pocket today and tomorrow, means today’s gold price is not nearly as relevant an issue as gold’s role in protecting far-sighted investors from what’s ahead. In the end, gold’s primary role is acting as insurance for a global financial and currency system already burning to the ground. But for those naturally asking about price, forecasting and models, as any who worked in a bank know, such models are as complex as they are useless. We keep things simpler and humbler. By just tracking monetary growth rates with certain regressions, a realistic price target for gold based upon inevitable monetary expansion suggests gold at well past $4000 by the end of this decade. That may or may not seem sexy enough for those chasing returns today, but when those returns convert into losses too hard to imagine as markets reach new highs, we must genuinely remind you that even with Fed “support,” all bubbles do the same thing: “Pop.” We are not here to tell you when, as no one can. We are simply suggesting you prepare, rather than react. Tyler Durden Sat, 09/25/2021 - 10:30.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 25th, 2021

3 Tips To Help Junior Partners Avoid Lifestyle Creep

Lifestyle creep, or lifestyle inflation – when expenses rapidly rise to match newfound income – ensnares countless newly minted partners. Often there are underlying social pressures from peers or colleagues to keep up with new levels of conspicuous consumption. New indulgences and one-time splurges quickly become everyday necessities. It may begin innocently enough with a […] Lifestyle creep, or lifestyle inflation – when expenses rapidly rise to match newfound income – ensnares countless newly minted partners. Often there are underlying social pressures from peers or colleagues to keep up with new levels of conspicuous consumption. New indulgences and one-time splurges quickly become everyday necessities. It may begin innocently enough with a new car, a small remodel to an existing home, or a generous contribution to one’s alma mater, but it can quickly snowball into completely spending bonus checks before they have even been deposited. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more So, who cares? After all, you have sacrificed a lot to get where you are today and rewarding yourself for a job well done is your right. However, many junior partners have not considered what they are giving up by having their expenses match their income – namely, true financial freedom or the ability to say no. It is difficult to downshift your lifestyle, especially if you have no resources to fall back on other than your future earning potential. Make sure you do not find yourself in this situation by following these tips. Prepare for Lumpy Cash Flow It is important to be fiscally prepared for lumpy cash flow – expenses like estimated tax payments, firm capital commitments, and new firm sponsorship contributions, just to name a few, can potentially catch you off-guard. Without adequate planning and forethought, you can find yourself flat-footed at a very inopportune moment. The first step to addressing lifestyle creep is to be prepared. Create a short-term cash strategy to help you avoid common cashflow missteps. Start by identifying what your major outstanding liabilities will likely be for the next 12 months. After you have identified these cash needs find a ready source of liquidity to cover them. When reviewing your cash strategy look for potential mismatches between liabilities and cash flow, consider all your options. Be prepared to cover an unexpected expense in addition to the ones you identified. Remember alternative sources of potential liquidity that you could use to smooth over any cash crunches, such as: A margin loan against assets held in investment accounts. A cash reserve built up over the course of time specifically for these types of surprise liquidity events. Short term financing solutions offered by the firm. If you do not research your options in advance, it is difficult to know in the moment what your best options is. Sometimes the terms of short-term margin loans are equal or better than terms offered to new partners from other sources sometime not – having options in place and knowing what they are is paramount to helping you address your need when it arises. Preparing a short-term cash strategy will give you a better sense of what to hold in reserves for future expenditures, what you can spend on your current lifestyle needs, and what to invest for long-term growth – allowing you to avoid the trap of lifestyle inflation. Identify Your Goals and Values Making conscious decisions about what is important to you is one of the most crucial steps in combating lifestyle inflation. You may really like the idea of: Having the option to slow down when you want to. Buying a vacation home to spend quality time with family. Providing meaningful philanthropic support to a cause you believe in. Being able to offer monetary support to aging parents. There are no right or wrong choices, but you should make a choice. One of my favorite quotes is, “If you don’t know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else.” Not having your long-term goals well-defined makes it easier to succumb to lifestyle creep, potentially leaving you someplace you didn’t intend to be. Balancing short-term needs with long-term goals is a lifelong pursuit, so it is vital not to focus solely on one or the other at any given time. Clearly outlining your goals and having a financial plan in place to achieve them will help you feel comfortable living the life you want today, knowing you are going to end up where you truly want to be. Create a Financial Roadmap Without knowing what you are aiming at, you can miss your target and let other seemingly pressing things drain your ability to accomplish what you really want. After identifying what matters most to you, the next step is to create a financial roadmap to help guide you to your destination. This is done through a comprehensive financial plan that considers not only your resources and liabilities, but also incorporates an in-depth cash flow and investment return projection as well. Having your plan in place will help guide you towards your goals and remind you to maintain focus on them. To create a financial roadmap, you should gather and review information regarding: Partner Benefits: 401(k), deferred compensations plans, etc. Investment Assets: taxable and retirement accounts, physical assets, etc. Liabilities: existing mortgages, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), credit cards, student loans, etc. Insurance: personal and group benefits – disability, life, property & casualty, etc. Estate Plan: current wills, Powers of Attorney (POAs), revocable and irrevocable trusts, etc. Tax Returns: recent returns from your accountant for reviewing income, expenses, deductions, etc. These data points allow you to create a more meaningful individual guide to help you stay on track to reach your financial goals. As assets and income projections change, risk profiles are modified, and other aspects of your personal and financial life develop with time, you should revisit and adjust your financial roadmap to reflect your new situation and goals. Your financial roadmap is a living document that will always be there to reorient you, helping to combat lifestyle creep. Conclusion Some level of lifestyle inflation is inevitable and necessary, continuing to live like you are a first-year associate is not the answer to preventing lifestyle creep. As with most things in life, the key is moderation. The transition to partner can be a challenging one – creating a comprehensive financial roadmap that takes your personal and professional situation and goals into consideration is the best way to develop and implement a plan that will help you avoid the kind of overextension that could materially impact your ability to achieve what you really want – whatever you decide that is. About the Author Eric Dostal, J.D., CFP®, Vice President at Wealthspire Advisors, works extensively with clients to help them feel in control of their financial lives. Eric has demonstrated a high degree of skill developing and overseeing the investment, insurance, retirement, tax and estate planning strategies of his clients. He seeks to understand a clients’ unique financial circumstances, get them organized and on the path to financial independence. Wealthspire Advisors LLC is a registered investment adviser and subsidiary company of NFP Corp. Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc. (CFP Board) owns the certification marks CFP®, Certified Financial Planner, and CFP® (with plaque design) in the United States, which it authorizes use of by individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements. This information should not be construed as a recommendation, offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to buy a particular security or investment strategy. The commentary provided is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for accounting, legal, or tax advice. While the information is deemed reliable, Wealthspire Advisors cannot guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. ©2021 Wealthspire Advisors. Updated on Sep 24, 2021, 4:05 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 24th, 2021

Is It Time to Consider Going Long The Russell 2000?

For weekend reading, while commenting on going long the Russell 2000, Louis Navellier offers the following commentary: Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more This past week saw a number of potential market headwinds emerge that pressured the major averages lower. Mixed data showing higher inflation at the wholesale level, tame inflation at the […] For weekend reading, while commenting on going long the Russell 2000, Louis Navellier offers the following commentary: if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more This past week saw a number of potential market headwinds emerge that pressured the major averages lower. Mixed data showing higher inflation at the wholesale level, tame inflation at the consumer level, surprisingly strong retail sales, upbeat manufacturing in the New York region, and subdued consumer confidence, pushed Treasury yields marginally higher on a net basis. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is at a key inflection point, where a move above 1.40% will likely trigger further technical selling. Distractions The potential collapse of Chinese mega-developer Evergrande is provoking the questions about whether this will be a “Lehman moment” creating a systemic impact on global markets. Another potential market mover is varying interpretations of FOMC policy now that the Feds have said their piece. And lastly, Congress has yet to raise the debt ceiling and political brinkmanship is unsettling to the Street, and toss in the recent spike in WTI crude prices to $72/bbl and one would think the market’s best-case scenario is a sideways finish to the year. Hard Look It would seem that, under this set of circumstances, the path of least resistance for equities is lower, but markets are forward-looking and have likely priced in most of the pessimism brought about by these noted risks. Assuming there is progress on all these fronts in the next month, it might behoove investors to take a hard look at going long the Russell 2000, where the majority of stocks are smaller domestic companies. This might be the most under-owned sector with the most room to run. What’s good about this investment setup is that the downside risk is very well-defined by looking at the year-to-date chart of the Russell 2000 iShares ETF (IWM), which has been consolidating in a 20-point range for the past eight months. Logic would have it that if the risks outlined above were truly going to undo the primary bull trend, shares of IWM would have already broken down through key support at $216, where its 200-day moving average sits. Instead, we see a chart pattern where both the 20- and 50-day moving averages are converging with the 200-day MA – and trying to turn higher. Break Levels A break of the $218 level and further violation of the $210 level would be where an appropriate mental or physical stop-loss would be appropriate. This implies a downside risk of 1% to 3.5% and an upside of, let’s say, 20% to 30%. The technical maxim of “the longer the base, the higher the space” comes to mind here. Eight months is a long technical base, and a huge opportunity for profits IF this key support level holds. The Russell 2000 has missed out on this year’s rally. As of last Friday’s close, the S&P 500 is up 18% and the Nasdaq is ahead by 16.7%, but the Russell 2000 is up only 13.3% Considering the fact that the small- to mid-cap stocks hold the greatest amount of investment risk, to see this tier of the market in the midst of so much hand wringing is not only counterintuitive, it is starting to look very compelling. Technical Pressure One thing market technicians will tell us about the IWM chart is that there is intense technical pressure at this inflection point as to where the next powerful move, be it up or down, will be. This set-up is one of the great and most interesting things about the stock market; it will behave in ways that defy logic, only to be understood well after a big move has occurred. There are circumstances beneath the surface of the market’s veneer that are offsetting a weaker NYSE advance/decline line and other negative factors. What these factors are, at present, is elusive, as far as I can tell, but if shares of IWM trade above $235 on heavy volume, it will be “off to the races” for Russell, providing broad confirmation that the bull market has further to go. It’s September and pessimism is elevated due to the unknowns surrounding Fed policy, tax policy, the debt ceiling, rising bond yields, stalemated infrastructure spending, the Delta variant, a meltdown in Evergrande, slowing growth in China, rising oil prices, and global supply bottlenecks. And yet, the Russell 2000 has not rolled over, it actually looks like it is preparing for an upside breakout. This would be a most welcome event, as it would indicate capital flows are increasing risk-on exposure to the U.S. economy. How this scenario unfolds is still a coin toss, but the one thing the IWM chart suggests is that we’ll know one way or the other in the near future. Updated on Sep 24, 2021, 4:50 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 24th, 2021

Unizen’s James Taylor: “CeFi and DeFi Need to Co-exist and Evolve”

It has been three months since James Taylor left his role as global head of electronic foreign exchange sales at BNY Mellon. The former JP Morgan and Barclays Capital has joined Unizen as chief business development officer, with the first aim of reinforcing the compliance and regulatory aspects of the CeDeFi ecosystem. Q2 2021 hedge […] It has been three months since James Taylor left his role as global head of electronic foreign exchange sales at BNY Mellon. The former JP Morgan and Barclays Capital has joined Unizen as chief business development officer, with the first aim of reinforcing the compliance and regulatory aspects of the CeDeFi ecosystem. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Taylor comes from the traditional finance industry, and has landed at Unizen at a critical stage in which the company is furiously working on innovating the UX environment for crypto traders and developers. We talked to James about his move and what Unizen is working on in the crypto space, while looking to use CeFi to bridge the gaps while delivering “compliant liquidity” to the end-user. It's been three months since you joined Unizen. How has it been? What did you find when joining the company? The time has flown by! The pace of innovation and development in the crypto industry is really quite staggering and it’s really exciting to be a part of it. I was already interested in the space and there are similarities between traditional finance and crypto but it wasn’t until I joined Unizen that I realized how much I didn’t know! So I’ve been busy. I spend a large part of my time talking to and getting to know the team, asking “dumb” questions, and learning. Also, a lot of focus and effort has been on the compliance and regulatory side which is very high on our agenda and an area that I was able to help with from day one. You come from traditional finance and have broken your way into crypto. Was it a revealing transition? It was only ever going to be a unique and special opportunity to move me from traditional finance to crypto, and Unizen was precisely that. One big reason was the team, which is top-notch in terms of talent and diverse experience, but more importantly, it operates with high moral standards and ethics. Throughout my career, although I was working at some of the biggest and most successful global investment banks, the areas I worked in were essentially new and very much like startup businesses –we were redefining the way that fixed-income products would be traded. So the combination of working with a brilliant team and the ability to be a part of building out something special again in the crypto space is why I'm here. Unizen is working on a CeDeFi crypto solution. What can you share about this? The Unizen team and community have identified multiple challenges that face investors in the crypto space including KYC, security, liquidity, and high network fees –we are looking to fix actual problems that exist in the space at present, rather than those in a hypothetical future. Unizen is an ecosystem that unifies centralized and decentralized products and services –CeDeFi. It is a cohesive workspace that integrates UIs and aggregates data. Regular DeFi falls short of compliance requirements that are needed by most investment firms and asset managers. We are looking to use CeFi to bridge the gaps while still respecting and protecting the essential DeFi elements, delivering “compliant liquidity” to the end-user –liquidity that they are permitted to interact with, according to their specific regulatory, legal, or fiduciary obligations. What are the advantages of Unizen’s hybridization for traders? The main advantages of hybridization are simplicity, security, and locating the best liquidity and pricing available. The first modules are exchanges, but over time there will be other essential products and services added. However, Unizen is not just for traders. Both experienced traders and occasional investors will have a much simpler and straightforward experience, and loyal community members who hold and/or stake ZCX tokens will receive various perks such as reduced trading fees, regular airdrops of project tokens, access to pre-sales, and more. How could a DeFi system be scaled? The short and simple answer here is “cross-chain interoperability.” Most DeFi is currently siloed, something that is very limiting. Interoperability is crucial in any software or ecosystem, as it simply won’t work to its full potential if it can’t work with other software or networks. Should the future be DeFi, how do you see Altcoin performing versus bitcoin? CeFi and DeFi need to co-exist and evolve –likely the future will be CeDeFi. Regarding bitcoin versus altcoin, the former is primarily a store of value, when compared to Ethereum, whose smart contracts allow the development of DeFi apps. I think we will see BTC “Dominance” move to less than 30% as we move to a multipolar blockchain. According to many, we could see ETH move to around $35,000, and there absolutely will be other projects coming in the future that jostle and take top 10 spots in terms of market capitalization. What’s next for Unizen and how do you envision the future of CeDeFi? The current crypto market is small relative to the institutional capital that is sitting on the sidelines. Institutions will go “all in” in the coming years, once institutional-grade products and compliant liquidity are available. This is why we are pushing CeDeFi as a solution, and the CeDeFi Alliance of companies will partner and build to create the required infrastructure. Updated on Sep 24, 2021, 12:07 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 24th, 2021

3 HMO Stocks That Outperformed the S&P Index in a Year"s Time

Membership growth, mergers and buyouts, and investment in technology are likely to aid health insurance companies like ANTM, MOH, and UNH to outperform the S&P Index. The health insurance industry more popularly called Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) has been gaining from mergers and acquisitions, solid revenues, investments in technology, diversified businesses, contract wins, strong Medicaid and Medicare businesses and cost-curbing measures.The companies delivered solid results in the first half of the year, which even made some of the leading insurers hike their 2021 guidance.The industry players are also constantly forging alliances to penetrate geographies and meet demands of the market. Other constant factors, such as aging U.S. population, solvency levels and demand for Medicare poise the industry participants well for growth. Full government backing related to the Affordable Care Act also helped the industry gain a sweet spot.This reform instituted by the then President Barack Obama back in March 2010, has been one of the major drivers for the industry despite inducing some challenges. And the current President Joe Biden continued supporting ACA, which came as a welcoming relief to the industry players. The government’s support for the ACA is aimed at bringing more Americans under the health insurance coverage. This will directly buoy the health insurers’ top line.Further Upside Left?The overall bullish scenario makes us optimistic about the health insurance industry’s consistent growth, which should boost prospects of its participating companies with sound business fundamentals.Here are some of the factors that will positively impact the companies.Consistent With Mergers & Acquisitions Strategy: The health insurers continue to intensify their focus on the M&A strategy, which helped them boost their business scale and expand their presence. These initiatives led to an improved quality of care and brought about diversification benefits.Growing Senior Population: With aging population in the United States and seniors accounting for a higher percentage of the total population, overall demand for health insurance among the aged will soar. Medicare Advantage (MA) is the private version of the government Medicare program. MA plans are attractive to seniors on the back of declining member premiums, new benefits and less attractive medigap options.Increased Automation:  The industry also joined the movement of digital revolution by embracing cutting-edge technology for operational use. It was slow in this transition but the coronavirus pandemic accelerated the process.Use of chatbots and AI-based voice, assistants, augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR) and mixed reality (MR), mobile-based apps, robots, cloud computing, analytics among other technologies are expected to optimize healthcare delivery and workflow while minimizing unnecessary costs. This should lead to operational excellence and better customer experience. Insurers who can bridge the physical-virtual gap will be the frontrunners in the industry.Industry player UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH leads the pack with a separate unit named OptumInsight, which offers software, data analytics and related services to healthcare providers.Rising Membership: The industry players are well-poised for growth on the back of several contract wins. Moreover, Biden allowed a Special Open Enrollment window on Feb 15 and extended the same to Aug 15. This gave Americans another chance to buy insurance coverage online on health exchanges. Biden's support for ACA led to a membership hike for companies like Centene Corporation CNC during the special enrollment period. This also made them raise their membership outlook for the current year. Per insurers, the current year might be the best selling phase for them. Insurers like UnitedHealth and Cigna Corp. CI are expanding their presence on the exchanges by tapping new areas.3 Stocks on WatchlistThe Zacks  HMO  industry, which is housed within the broader Zacks  Medical  sector, currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #104. This places it in the top 41% of 252 Zacks industries.The Zacks HMO industry has grown 37.3% in a year’s time compared with the S&P Index’s rally of 39.4%.These health insurance stocks hold ample growth prospects to retain stability in the days ahead. Here are three stocks that presently have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and managed to surpass the S&P Index in the past year. All the companies have a VGM Score of A. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Anthem Inc.’s ANTM strategic buyouts and collaborations and an improving top line along with the company’s expanded product portfolio should drive long-term growth. Its solid 2021 guidance impresses. Over the past 60 days, the stock has witnessed its 2021 earnings estimate move 0.2% north. In the past year, shares of the company have gained 54.8%.Molina Healthcare, Inc.’s MOH ability to engage in inorganic growth initiatives and capital deployment reflect an improved financial position. Its strong 2021 outlook encourages. Over the past seven days, the company has witnessed its 2022 earnings estimate move 1.5% north. Over the past year, the stock has surged 84.7%.UnitedHealth Group continued strong growth at Optum as well as UnitedHealthcare segments are driving revenues. Its favorable government business and a strong capital position are other positives. Over the past 30 days, the stock has witnessed its 2022 earnings estimate move 0.4% north. In the past year, shares of the company have surged 41.4%.Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Free Stock Analysis Report Molina Healthcare, Inc (MOH): Free Stock Analysis Report Cigna Corporation (CI): Free Stock Analysis Report Centene Corporation (CNC): Free Stock Analysis Report Anthem, Inc. (ANTM): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

Biden Hosts First Quad Summit At White House As "Counter-China" Allies Cement "Unofficial" Alliance

Biden Hosts First Quad Summit At White House As 'Counter-China' Allies Cement 'Unofficial' Alliance Amid regional concerns of China's growing power in the Indo-Pacific, President Biden will host leaders of the Quad alliance at the White House on Friday, where they are expected to discuss the fight against infrastructure and technological cooperation, and the fight against Covid-19. Looming heavy in the background is the US-Australia-UK 'Aukus' deal unveiled over a week ago which has been loudly condemned by Beijing. Biden will first hold a bilateral meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Mode, after which Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will join them to meet as a group, and then Suga will meet with Biden one-on-one after this. Biden previously meeting India's PM Narendra Mode A senior administration official previewed Friday's summit by saying, "At the outset of the admin the president indicated he wanted to take this institution that’s an informal gathering of leading democracies in the Indo-Pacific and basically lift it both to the leader level, and ensure we are working together to build better lines of communication and strengthening cooperation and habits of cooperation amongst us," according to Reuters.  The official also said the Quad is part of the "larger fabric of engagement" that reflects White House priorities in the Indo-Pacific region, which has especially been focused on shoring up resistance to China's influence among allies... Heading into the first in-person leaders meeting, the survival of the current iteration of the grouping across two US administrations and changes in governments in Japan and Australia "speaks to [the Quad’s] durability and how, you could say, the quad is here to stay," Sameer Lalwani, a senior fellow for Asia strategy at the Stimson Center, told Al Jazeera. Importantly, The Hill highlights the US need to protect and ensure its semiconductor supply amid the global shortage: Beyond vaccine production, the group will announce a supply chain initiative focused on semiconductors amid a global shortage of the key part for cars and other products. They will also detail a 5G diversification effort, as well as a fellowship sponsored by private donors that will send 100 masters or doctoral students — 25 from each country — to leading U.S. universities to study science and technology programs. Interestingly just ahead of the Friday summit, the White House further sought to clarify the "unofficial" nature of the gathering and that the Quad is not in any way a military alliance.  "I do want to underscore that The Quad is an unofficial gathering," an administration official was cited in CNN as cautioning. "Although we have a number of working groups and we are deepening cooperation on a very daily basis, it's also the case that it is not a regional security organization," the official sought to clarify. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/24/2021 - 08:46.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 24th, 2021

Futures Slide Alongside Cryptocurrencies Amid China Crackdown

Futures Slide Alongside Cryptocurrencies Amid China Crackdown US futures and European stocks fell amid ongoing nerves over the Evergrande default, while cryptocurrency-linked stocks tumbled after the Chinese central bank said such transactions are illegal. Sovereign bond yields fluctuated after an earlier selloff fueled by the prospect of tighter monetary policy. At 745am ET, S&P 500 e-minis were down 19.5 points, or 0.43%, Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 88.75 points, or 0.58% and Dow e-minis were down 112 points, or 0.33%. In the biggest overnight news, Evergrande offshore creditors remain in limbo and still haven't received their coupon payment effectively starting the 30-day grace period, while also in China, the State Planner issued a notice on the crackdown of cryptocurrency mining, will strictly prohibit financing for new crypto mining projects and strengthen energy consumption controls of new crypto mining projects. Subsequently, the PBoC issued a notice to further prevent and dispose of the risks from speculating on cryptocurrencies, to strengthen monitoring of risks from crypto trading and such activities are illegal. The news sent the crypto space tumbling as much as 8% while cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slumped in U.S. premarket trading. Marathon Digital (MARA) drops 6.5%, Bit Digital (BTBT) declines 4.7%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT) -5.9%, Coinbase -2.8%. Big banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp slipped about 0.5%, while oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp were down 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in premarket trading.Mega-cap FAAMG tech giants fell between 0.5% and 0.6%. Nike shed 4.6% after the sportswear maker cut its fiscal 2022 sales expectations and warned of delays during the holiday shopping season. Several analysts lowered their price targets on the maker of sports apparel and sneakers after the company cut its FY revenue growth guidance to mid-single- digits. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Helbiz (HLBZ) falls 10% after the micromobility company filed with the SEC for the sale of as many as 11m shares by stockholders. Focus Universal (FCUV), an online marketing company that’s been a favorite of retail traders, surged 26% in premarket trading after the stock was cited on Stocktwits in recent days. Vail Resorts (MTN) falls 2.7% in postmarket trading after its full-year forecasts for Ebitda and net income missed at the midpoint. GlycoMimetics (GLYC) jumps 15% postmarket after announcing that efficacy and safety data from a Phase 1/2 study of uproleselan in patients with acute myeloid leukemia were published in the journal Blood on Sept. 16. VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) surges 30% after company says its HPP737 psoriasis treatment showed favorable safety and tolerability profile in a multiple ascending dose study. Fears about a sooner-than-expected tapering amid signs of stalling U.S. economic growth and concerns over a spillover from China Evergrande’s default had rattled investors in September, putting the benchmark S&P 500 index on course to snap a seven-month winning streak. Elaine Stokes, a portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., told Bloomberg Television, adding that “what they did is tell us that they feel really good about the economy.” While the bond selloff vindicated Treasury bears who argue yields are too low to reflect fundamentals, others see limits to how high they can go. “We’d expected bond yields to go higher, given the macro situation where growth is still very strong,” Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist with JPMorgan Asset Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “But we do stress that is a modest view, because we think that upside to yields is still limited from here given that central banks including the Fed are still buying bonds.” Still, Wall Street’s main indexes rallied in the past two session and are set for small weekly gains. European equities dipped at the open but trade off worst levels, with the Euro Stoxx 50 sliding as much as 1.1% before climbing off the lows. France's CAC underperformed at the margin. Retail, financial services are the weakest performers. EQT AB, Europe’s biggest listed private equity firm, fell as much as 8.1% after Sweden’s financial watchdog opened an investigation into suspected market abuse. Here are some of the other biggest European movers today: SMCP shares surge as much as 9.9%, advancing for a 9th session in 10, amid continued hopes the financial troubles of its top shareholder will ultimately lead to a sale TeamViewer climbs much as 4.2% after Bankhaus Metzler initiated coverage with a buy rating, citing the company’s above-market growth AstraZeneca gains as much as 3.6% after its Lynparza drug met the primary endpoint in a prostate cancer trial Darktrace drops as much as 9.2%, paring the stock’s rally over the past few weeks, as a technical pattern triggered a sell signal Adidas and Puma fall as much as 4% and 2.9%, respectively, after U.S. rival Nike’s “large cut” to FY sales guidance, which Jefferies said would “likely hurt” shares of European peers Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for a second day, led by rallies in Japan and Taiwan, following U.S. peers higher amid optimism over the Federal Reserve’s bullish economic outlook and fading concerns over widespread contagion from Evergrande. Stocks were muted in China and Hong Kong. India’s S&P BSE Sensex topped the 60,000 level for the first time on Friday on optimism that speedier vaccinations will improve demand for businesses in Asia’s third-largest economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%, with TSMC and Sony the biggest boosts. That trimmed the regional benchmark’s loss for the week to about 1%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.1%, reopening after a holiday, pushing its advance for September to 7.7%, the best among major global gauges. The Asian regional benchmark pared its gain as Hong Kong stocks fell sharply in late afternoon trading amid continued uncertainty, with Evergrande giving no sign of making an interest payment that was due Thursday. Among key upcoming events is the leadership election for Japan’s ruling party next week, which will likely determine the country’s next prime minister. “Investor concerns over the Evergrande issue have retreated a bit for now,” said Hajime Sakai, chief fund manager at Mito Securities Co. in Tokyo. “But investors will have to keep downside risk in the corner of their minds.” Indian stocks rose, pushing the Sensex above 60,000 for the first time ever. Key gauges fell in Singapore, Malaysia and Australia, while the Thai market was closed for a holiday. Treasuries are higher as U.S. trading day begins after rebounding from weekly lows reached during Asia session, adding to Thursday’s losses. The 10-year yield was down 1bp at ~1.42%, just above the 100-DMA breached on Thursday for the first time in three months; it climbed to 1.449% during Asia session, highest since July 6, and remains 5.2bp higher on the week, its fifth straight weekly increase. Several Fed speakers are slated, first since Wednesday’s FOMC commentary set forth a possible taper timeline.  Bunds and gilts recover off cheapest levels, curves bear steepening. USTs bull steepen, richening 1.5bps from the 10y point out. Peripheral spreads are wider. BTP spreads widen 2-3bps to Bunds. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed back from a one-week low as concern about possible contagion from Evergrande added to buying of the greenback based on the Federal Reserve tapering timeline signaled on Wednesday. NZD, AUD and CAD sit at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. ZAR and TRY are the weakest in EM FX. The pound fell after its rally on Thursday as investors looked ahead to BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s sPeech next week about a possible interest-rate hike. Traders are betting that in a contest to raise borrowing costs first, the Bank of England will be the runaway winner over the Federal Reserve. The New Zealand and Aussie dollars led declines among Group-of-10 peers. The euro was trading flat, with a week full of events failing “to generate any clear directional move,” said ING analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner. German IFO sentiment indeces will “provide extra indications about the area’s sentiment as  businesses faced a combination of delta variant concerns and lingering supply disruptions”. The Norwegian krone is the best performing currency among G10 peers this week, with Thursday’s announcement from the Norges Bank offering support In commodities, crude futures hold a narrow range up around best levels for the week. WTI stalls near $73.40, Brent near $77.50. Spot gold extends Asia’s gains, adding $12 on the session to trade near $1,755/oz. Base metals are mixed, LME nickel and aluminum drop ~1%, LME tin outperforms with a 2.8% rally. Bitcoin dips after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal. Looking to the day ahead now, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,423.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 464.18 German 10Y yield fell 8.5 bps to -0.236% Euro little changed at $1.1737 MXAP up 0.4% to 201.25 MXAPJ down 0.5% to 643.20 Nikkei up 2.1% to 30,248.81 Topix up 2.3% to 2,090.75 Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 24,192.16 Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,613.07 Sensex up 0.2% to 60,031.83 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,342.60 Kospi little changed at 3,125.24 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $77.57/bbl Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,755.38 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.14 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg China Evergrande Group’s unusual silence about a dollar-bond interest payment that was due Thursday has put a focus on what might happen during a 30-day grace period. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target is increasingly out of step with international counterparts and fails to account for structural changes in the country’s economy over the past 30 years, Westpac Banking Corp.’s Bill Evans said. With central banks from Washington to London this week signaling more alarm over faster inflation, the ultra-stimulative path of the euro zone and some of its neighbors appears lonelier than ever. China’s central bank continued to pump liquidity into the financial system on Friday as policy makers sought to avoid contagion stemming from China Evergrande Group spreading to domestic markets. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mixed with the region failing to fully sustain the impetus from the positive performance across global counterparts after the silence from Evergrande and lack of coupon payments for its offshore bonds, stirred uncertainty for the company. ASX 200 (-0.4%) was negative as underperformance in mining names and real estate overshadowed the advances in tech and resilience in financials from the higher yield environment. Nikkei 225 (+2.1%) was the biggest gainer overnight as it played catch up to the prior day’s recovery on return from the Autumnal Equinox holiday in Japan and with exporters cheering the recent risk-conducive currency flows, while KOSPI (-0.1%) was lacklustre amid the record daily COVID-19 infections and after North Korea deemed that it was premature to declare that the Korean War was over. Hang Seng (-1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) were indecisive after further liquidity efforts by the PBoC were offset by concerns surrounding Evergrande after the Co. failed to make coupon payments due yesterday for offshore bonds but has a 30-day grace period with the Co. remaining quiet on the issue. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower on spillover selling from global counterparts including the declines in T-notes as the US 10yr yield breached 1.40% for the first time since early-July with the pressure in bonds also stemming from across the Atlantic following a more hawkish BoE, while the presence of the BoJ in the market today for over JPY 1.3tln of government bonds with 1yr-10yr maturities did very little to spur prices. Top Asian News Rivals for Prime Minister Battle on Social Media: Japan Election Asian Stocks Rise for Second Day, Led by Gains in Japan, Taiwan Hong Kong Stocks Still Wagged by Evergrande Tail Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index Extends Decline to More Than 2% European equities (Stoxx 600 -0.9%) are trading on the back foot in the final trading session of the week amid further advances in global bond yields and a mixed APAC handover. Overnight, saw gains for the Nikkei 225 of 2.1% with the index aided by favourable currency flows, whilst Chinese markets lagged (Shanghai Comp. -0.8%, Hang Seng -1.6%) with further liquidity efforts by the PBoC offset by concerns surrounding Evergrande after the Co. failed to make coupon payments due yesterday for offshore bonds. As context, despite the losses in Europe today, the Stoxx 600 is still higher by some 1.2% on the week. Stateside, futures are also on a softer footing with the ES down by 0.4% ahead of a busy Fed speaker schedule. Back to Europe, sectors are lower across the board with Retail and Personal & Household Goods lagging peers. The former has been hampered by losses in Adidas (-3.0%) following after hours earnings from Nike (-4.2% pre-market) which saw the Co. cut its revenue guidance amid supply chain woes. AstraZeneca (+2.1%) sits at the top of the FTSE 100 after announcing that the Lynparza PROpel trial met its primary endpoint. Daimler’s (+0.1%) Mercedes-Benz has announced that it will take a 33% stake in a battery cell manufacturing JV with Total and Stellantis. EQT (-6.5%) sits at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the Swedish FSA announced it will open an investigation into the Co. Top European News EQT Investigated by Sweden’s FSA Over Suspected Market Abuse Gazprom Says Claims of Gas Under-supply to Europe Are ‘Absurd’ German Sept. Ifo Business Confidence 98.8; Est. 99 German Business Index at Five-Month Low in Pre-Election Verdict In FX, the rot seems to have stopped for the Buck in terms of its sharp and marked fall from grace amidst post-FOMC reflection and re-positioning in the financial markets on Thursday. Indeed, the Dollar index has regained some poise to hover above the 93.000 level having recoiled from 93.526 to 92.977 over the course of yesterday’s hectic session that saw the DXY register a marginal new w-t-d high and low at either end of the spectrum. Pre-weekend short covering and consolidation may be giving the Greenback a lift, while the risk backdrop is also less upbeat ahead of a raft of Fed speakers flanking US new home sales data. Elsewhere, the Euro remains relatively sidelined and contained against the Buck with little independent inspiration from the latest German Ifo survey as the business climate deteriorated broadly in line with consensus and current conditions were worse than forecast, but business expectations were better than anticipated. Hence, Eur/Usd is still stuck in a rut and only briefly/fractionally outside 1.1750-00 parameters for the entire week, thus far, as hefty option expiry interest continues to keep the headline pair in check. However, there is significantly less support or gravitational pull at the round number today compared to Thursday as ‘only’ 1.3 bn rolls off vs 4.1 bn, and any upside breach could be capped by 1.1 bn between 1.1765-85. CAD/NZD/AUD - Some payback for the non-US Dollars following their revival, with the Loonie waning from 1.2650+ peaks ahead of Canadian budget balances, though still underpinned by crude as WTI hovers around Usd 73.50/brl and not far from decent option expiries (from 1.2655-50 and 1.2625-30 in 1.4 bn each). Similarly, the Kiwi has faded after climbing to within single digits of 0.7100 in wake of NZ trade data overnight revealing a much wider deficit as exports slowed and imports rose, while the Aussie loses grip of the 0.7300 handle and skirts 1.1 bn option expiries at 0.7275. CHF/GBP/JPY - The Franc is fairly flat and restrained following a dovish SNB policy review that left in lagging somewhat yesterday, with Usd/Chf and Eur/Chf straddling 0.9250 and 1.0850 respectively, in contrast to Sterling that is paring some hawkish BoE momentum, as Cable retreats to retest bids circa 1.3700 and Eur/Gbp bounces from sub-0.8550. Elsewhere, the Yen has not been able to fend off further downside through 110.00 even though Japanese participants have returned to the fray after the Autumn Equinox holiday and reports suggest some COVID-19 restrictions may be lifted in 13 prefectures on a trial basis. SCANDI/EM/PM/CRYPTO - A slight change in the pecking order in Scandi-land as the Nok loses some post-Norges Bank hike impetus and the Sek unwinds a bit of its underperformance, but EM currencies are bearing the brunt of the aforementioned downturn in risk sentiment and firmer Usd, with the Zar hit harder than other as Gold is clings to Usd 1750/oz and Try down to deeper post-CBRT rate cut lows after mixed manufacturing sentiment and cap u readings. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being shackled by the latest Chinese crackdown on mining and efforts to limit risks from what it describes as unlawful speculative crypto currency trading. In commodities, WTI and Brent are set the conclude the week in the green with gains in excess of 2% for WTI at the time of writing; in-spite of the pressure seen in the complex on Monday and the first-half of Tuesday, where a sub USD 69.50/bbl low was printed. Fresh newsflow has, once again, been limited for the complex and continues to focus on the gas situation. More broadly, no update as of yet on the Evergrande interest payment and by all accounts we appear to have entered the 30-day grace period for this and, assuming catalysts remain slim, updates on this will may well dictate the state-of-play. Schedule wise, the session ahead eyes significant amounts of central bank commentary but from a crude perspective the weekly Baker Hughes rig count will draw attention. On the weather front, Storm Sam has been upgraded to a Hurricane and is expected to rapidly intensify but currently remains someway into the mid-Atlantic. Moving to metals, LME copper is pivoting the unchanged mark after a mixed APAC lead while attention is on Glencore’s CSA copper mine, which it has received an offer for; the site in 2020 produced circa. 46k/T of copper which is typically exported to Asia smelters. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are firmer but have been very contained and remain well-within overnight ranges thus far. Which sees the yellow metal holding just above the USD 1750/oz mark after a brief foray below the level after the US-close. US Event Calendar 10am: Aug. New Home Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0% 10am: Aug. New Home Sales, est. 715,000, prior 708,000 Central Bank Speakers 8:45am: Fed’s Mester Discusses the Economic Outlook 10am: Powell, Clarida and Bowman Host Fed Listens Event 10:05am: Fed’s George Discusses Economic Outlook 12pm: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Equitable Community Development DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap WFH today is a bonus as it’s time for the annual ritual at home where the latest, sleekest, shiniest iPhone model arrives in the post and i sheepishly try to justify to my wife when I get home why I need an incremental upgrade. This year to save me from the Spanish Inquisition I’m going to intercept the courier and keep quiet. Problem is that such speed at intercepting the delivery will be logistically challenging as I remain on crutches (5 weeks to go) and can’t grip properly with my left hand due to an ongoing trapped nerve. I’m very glad I’m not a racehorse. Although hopefully I can be put out to pasture in front of the Ryder Cup this weekend. The big news of the last 24 hours has been a galloping global yield rise worthy of the finest thoroughbred. A hawkish Fed meeting, with the dots increasing and the end of QE potentially accelerated, didn’t quite have the ability to move markets but the global dam finally broke yesterday with Norway being the highest profile developed country to raise rates this cycle (expected), but more importantly a Bank of England meeting that saw the market reappraise rate hikes. Looking at the specific moves, yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +13.0bps to 1.430% in their biggest daily increase since 25 February, as both higher real rates (+7.9bps) and inflation breakevens (+4.9bps) drove the advance. US 10yr yields had been trading in a c.10bp range for the last month before breaking out higher, though they have been trending higher since dropping as far as 1.17% back in early-August. US 30yr yields rose +13.2bps, which was the biggest one day move in long dated yields since March 17 2020, which was at the onset of the pandemic and just days after the Fed announced it would be starting the current round of QE. The large selloff in US bonds saw the yield curve steepen and the long-end give back roughly half of the FOMC flattening from the day before. The 5y30y curve steepened 3.4bps for a two day move of -3.3bps. However the 2y10y curve steepened +10.5bps, completely reversing the prior day’s flattening (-4.2bps) and leaving the spread at 116bp, the steepest level since first week of July. 10yr gilt yields saw nearly as strong a move (+10.8bps) with those on shorter-dated 2yr gilts (+10.7bps) hitting their highest level (0.386%) since the pandemic began.That came on the back of the BoE’s latest policy decision, which pointed in a hawkish direction, building on the comment in the August statement that “some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period is likely to be necessary” by saying that “some developments during the intervening period appear to have strengthened that case”. The statement pointed out that the rise in gas prices since August represented an upside risks to their inflation projections from next April, and the MPC’s vote also saw 2 members (up from 1 in August) vote to dial back QE. See DB’s Sanjay Raja’s revised rate hike forecasts here. We now expect a 15bps hike in February. The generalised move saw yields in other European countries rise as well, with those on 10yr bunds (+6.6bps), OATs (+6.5bps) and BTPs (+5.7bps) all seeing big moves higher with 10yr bunds seeing their biggest climb since late-February and back to early-July levels as -0.258%. The yield rise didn’t stop equity indices recovering further from Monday’s rout, with the S&P 500 up +1.21% as the index marked its best performance in over 2 months, and its best 2-day performance since May. Despite the mood at the end of the weekend, the S&P now starts Friday in positive territory for the week. The rally yesterday was led by cyclicals for a second straight day with higher commodity prices driving outsized gains for energy (+3.41%) and materials (+1.39%) stocks, and the aforementioned higher yields causing banks (+3.37%) and diversified financials (+2.35%) to outperform. The reopening trade was the other main beneficiary as airlines rose +2.99% and consumer services, which include hotel and cruiseline companies, gained +1.92%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.93%) witnessed a similarly strong performance, with index led by banks (+2.16%). As a testament to the breadth of yesterday’s rally, the travel and leisure sector (+0.04%) was the worst performing sector on this side of the Atlantic even while registering a small gain and lagging its US counterparts. Before we get onto some of yesterday’s other events, it’s worth noting that this is actually the last EMR before the German election on Sunday, which has long been signposted as one of the more interesting macro events on the 2021 calendar, the results of which will play a key role in not just domestic, but also EU policy. And with Chancellor Merkel stepping down after four terms in office, this means that the country will soon be under new management irrespective of who forms a government afterwards. It’s been a volatile campaign in many respects, with Chancellor Merkel’s CDU/CSU, the Greens and the centre-left SPD all having been in the lead at various points over the last six months. But for the last month Politico’s Poll of Polls has shown the SPD consistently ahead, with their tracker currently putting them on 25%, ahead of the CDU/CSU on 22% and the Greens on 16%. However the latest poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen yesterday suggested a tighter race with the SPD at 25, the CDU/CSU at 23% and the Greens at 16.5%. If the actual results are in line with the recent averages, it would certainly mark a sea change in German politics, as it would be the first time that the SPD have won the popular vote since the 2002 election. Furthermore, it would be the CDU/CSU’s worst ever result, and mark the first time in post-war Germany that the two main parties have failed to win a majority of the vote between them, which mirrors the erosion of the traditional big parties in the rest of continental Europe. For the Greens, 15% would be their best ever score, and exceed the 9% they got back in 2017 that left them in 6th place, but it would also be a disappointment relative to their high hopes back in the spring, when they were briefly polling in the mid-20s after Annalena Baerbock was selected as their Chancellor candidate. In terms of when to expect results, the polls close at 17:00 London time, with initial exit polls released immediately afterwards. However, unlike the UK, where a new majority government can immediately come to power the day after the election, the use of proportional representation in Germany means that it could potentially be weeks or months before a new government is formed. Indeed, after the last election in September 2017, it wasn’t until March 2018 that the new grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD took office, after attempts to reach a “Jamaica” coalition between the CDU/CSU, the FDP and the Greens was unsuccessful. In the meantime, the existing government will act as a caretaker administration. On the policy implications, it will of course depend on what sort of government is actually formed, but our research colleagues in Frankfurt have produced a comprehensive slidepack (link here) running through what the different parties want across a range of policies, and what the likely coalitions would mean for Germany. They also put out another note yesterday (link here) where they point out that there’s still much to play for, with the SPD’s lead inside the margin of error and with an unusually high share of yet undecided voters. Moving on to Asia and markets are mostly higher with the Nikkei (+2.04%), CSI (+0.53%) and India’s Nifty (+0.52%) up while the Hang Seng (-0.03%), Shanghai Comp (-0.07%) and Kospi (-0.10%) have all made small moves lower. Meanwhile, the Evergrande group missed its dollar bond coupon payment yesterday and so far there has been no communication from the group on this. They have a 30-day grace period to make the payment before any event of default can be declared. This follows instructions from China’s Financial regulators yesterday in which they urged the group to take all measures possible to avoid a near-term default on dollar bonds while focusing on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors. Yields on Australia and New Zealand’s 10y sovereign bonds are up +14.5bps and +11.3bps respectively this morning after yesterday’s move from their western counterparts. Yields on 10y USTs are also up a further +1.1bps to 1.443%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.04% while those on the Stoxx 50 are down -0.10%. In terms of overnight data, Japan’s August CPI printed at -0.4% yoy (vs. -0.3% yoy expected) while core was unchanged in line with expectations. We also received Japan’s flash PMIs with the services reading at 47.4 (vs. 42.9 last month) while the manufacturing reading came in at 51.2 (vs. 52.7 last month). In pandemic related news, Jiji reported that Japan is planning to conduct trials of easing Covid restrictions, with 13 prefectures indicating they’d like to participate. This is likely contributing to the outperformance of the Nikkei this morning. Back to yesterday now, and one of the main highlights came from the flash PMIs, which showed a continued deceleration in growth momentum across Europe and the US, and also underwhelmed relative to expectations. Running through the headline numbers, the Euro Area composite PMI fell to 56.1 (vs. 58.5 expected), which is the lowest figure since April, as both the manufacturing (58.7 vs 60.3 expected) and services (56.3 vs. 58.5 expected) came in beneath expectations. Over in the US, the composite PMI fell to 54.5 in its 4th consecutive decline, as the index hit its lowest level in a year, while the UK’s composite PMI at 54.1 (vs. 54.6 expected) was the lowest since February when the country was still in a nationwide lockdown. Risk assets seemed unperturbed by the readings, and commodities actually took another leg higher as they rebounded from their losses at the start of the week. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index rose +1.12% as Brent crude oil (+1.39%) closed at $77.25/bbl, which marked its highest closing level since late 2018, while WTI (+1.07%) rose to $73.30/bbl, so still a bit beneath its recent peak in July. However that is a decent rebound of roughly $11/bbl since its recent low just over a month ago. Elsewhere, gold (-1.44%) took a knock amidst the sharp move higher in yields, while European natural gas prices subsidised for a third day running, with futures now down -8.5% from their intraday peak on Tuesday, although they’re still up by +71.3% since the start of August. US negotiations regarding the upcoming funding bill and raising the debt ceiling are ongoing, with House Speaker Pelosi saying that the former, also called a continuing resolution, will pass “both houses by September 30,” and fund the government through the first part of the fiscal year, starting October 1. Treasury Secretary Yellen has said the US will likely breach the debt ceiling sometime in the next month if Congress does not increase the level, and because Republicans are unwilling to vote to raise the ceiling, Democrats will have to use the once-a-fiscal-year tool of budget reconciliation to do so. However Democrats, are also using that process for the $3.5 trillion dollar economic plan that makes up the bulk of the Biden agenda, and have not been able to get full party support yet. During a joint press conference with Speaker Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that Democrats have a “framework” to pay for the Biden Economic agenda, which would imply that the broad outline of a deal was reached between the House, Senate and the White House. However, no specifics were mentioned yesterday. With Democrats looking to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill early next week, negotiations today and this weekend on the potential reconciliation package will be vital. Looking at yesterday’s other data, the weekly initial jobless claims from the US for the week through September 18 unexpectedly rose to 351k (vs. 320k expected), which is the second week running they’ve come in above expectations. Separately, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index fell to 0.29 in August (vs. 0.50 expected), and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index also fell more than expected to 22 in September (vs. 25 expected). To the day ahead now, and data highlights include the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany for September, along with Italian consumer confidence for September and US new home sales for August. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/24/2021 - 08:12.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 24th, 2021

Samsung: Seeking better customer structure and node process breakthroughs

TSMC, Intel and Samsung continue to compete for the leadership in more advanced technologies beyond 7nm node. Samsung has already foretold that it will mass produce for 4nm technology in 2021, with the 3nm process likely to be available in 2023. In the future, Samsung will produce its own chips with its 3nm GAAFTE process. As we all know, Samsung has a lot of contracts from its internal system design center. Only when Samsung wins orders from external customers can there be structural improvements. But many external customers are wary of Samsung's dual role as player and referee which leverages its technology, production capacity and market operations against its customers. Samsung has considered spinning off its wafer foundry business to endorse its credibility, but has not made a move because semiconductor is a highly capital-intensive industry. TSMC has announced that between 2021 and 2023 it will invest US$100 billion or an annual capital expenditure of US$30 billion for capacity expansions. The budget is more than double Samsung's sales from wafer foundry business. A spun-off Samsung foundry business wouldn't be able to afford such big investments all on its own, and would face enormous challenges trying to make profits......»»

Category: topSource: digitimesSep 24th, 2021

Make the Most of Soaring Natural Gas Prices with These 5 Plays

Soaring energy prices and cheap valuations make this group attractive. Natural gas prices have been rising this year. The reason, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is a warmer-than-usual summer that boosted electricity consumption for air conditioning, increased liquid natural gas (LNG) exports and flat production, which in combination led to a lower inventory build for the winter. The fact that hurricane Ida disrupted production in August also didn’t help.The other contributing factor was that natural gas prices typically rise in times of economic expansion, because of its use in the commercial sector, as well as processing in several industrial segments like chemicals, fertilizers, paper and glass. And we know how rapidly the economy has turned around.It’s now expected that prices will remain elevated through the winter because of the low inventories and increased demand from consumer, commercial and industrial users. And that is despite electric power consumption dropping an estimated 8.3% this year as the sector shifts some consumption to coal (the usual fallback when prices continue to rise). The electric power sector is the largest end-use case for natural gas, and it’s highly sensitive to prices. Less elastic demand comes from things like lease and plant fuel, pipeline and distribution use, and vehicle use and these segments are likely to see steady growth through 2022.The EIA estimates that despite increased production, natural gas inventories will be 5% below the 5-year average at the end of the 2021 injection season (October-end). Next year, demand from electricity suppliers will fall further, as additional clean energy sources come online.Important NumbersHenry Hub spot prices in August were $1.77 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) higher than in August 2020.U.S. consumption of natural gas will average 82.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2021, down 0.9% from 2020, remaining more or less steady at 82.6 Bcf/d in 2022.Residential and commercial natural gas consumption combined will rise by 1.2 Bcf/d, industrial consumption will rise by 0.6 Bcf/d and the electric power sector’s consumption will drop by 2.7 Bcf/d, or 8.3% in 2021.Dry natural gas production will average 92.7 Bcf/d in the U.S. during 2H21—up from 91.7 Bcf/d in 1H21—and then rise to 95.4 Bcf/d in 2022.U.S. natural gas inventories ended August 2021 at about 2.9 trillion cubic feet (Tcf); inventories will end the 2021 injection season (end of October) at almost 3.6 Tcf, which would be 5% below the five-year average.LNG ExportsSince the U.S. is more or less replete in natural gas resource, the domestic market is well-developed with consumption balancing production more often than not, leading to low and steady prices. But the last few years have seen increased recognition across the world of LNG as a clean fuel and countries like China have made it part of their clean energy strategy. The high demand in Europe and Asia has sent global prices soaring, which in turn has encouraged U.S. manufacturers to export. The expansion of the domestic LNG market is changing the operating dynamics with the potential for prices to rise and stay higher in the future (because of increased international demand).Most players are involved in both natural gas and crude operations, although there’s an increased focus on natural gas of late.Let’s consider a few cases-Cheniere Energy, Inc. LNGHouston, TX-based Cheniere Energy is primarily engaged in businesses related to liquefied natural gas (or LNG) through its two business segments: LNG terminal and LNG and natural gas marketing. The company, through its controlling interest in Cheniere Energy Partners L.P., owns and operates the Sabine Pass LNG terminal in Louisiana – North America’s first large-scale liquefied gas export facility. Furthermore, Cheniere Energy owns and operates the 94-mile Creole Trail Pipeline – an interconnect between the Sabine Pass receiving terminal and the downstream markets – through its subsidiary.Cheniere Energy intends to construct up to six trains at Sabine Pass with each train expected to have a capacity of about 4.5 million tons per annum. While Trains 1, 2, 3 and 4 are functional; Train 5 is undergoing commissioning. Train 6 is being commercialized and has secured the necessary regulatory approvals.Cheniere Energy Partners is also developing a liquefaction and export terminal in Corpus Christi, TX. Train 1 commissioning is complete, Train 2 is under construction and Train 3 is commercialised with necessary approvals in place. The facility came online in 2019. Cheniere Energy intends to develop seven midscale liquefaction trains adjacent to the Corpus Christi Liquefaction facility (CCL). The company has initiated the regulatory approval process. The total production capacities for these trains are expected to be approximately 9.5 Mtpa.Additionally, Cheniere Energy is involved in LNG and natural gas marketing activities through its subsidiary, Cheniere Marketing LLC.Global LNG demand is likely to continue growing for the next few years. Cheniere Energy, the U.S.’s only listed LNG export pure play, foresees the fundamentals of LNG to be favorable in the long run, considering the secular shift to the cleaner burning fuel for power generation worldwide and in the Asia-Pacific region in particular. While the increasing demand for gas in the European power sector will be a key factor driving near-term LNG supply, longer-term consumption is set to come from Asian importers like China, India, South Korea and Pakistan.Being in the expansion phase of a capital-intensive business isn’t easy and the company has acquired a significant amount of debt. At the same time, its long-term contracts ensure steady cash flow and provide excellent visibility into the future.It’s therefore particularly encouraging that Cheniere’s expected earnings growth of 976.5% this year and 119.7% next year are significantly higher than its expected revenue growth of 46.4% and 13.6%. After a correction 30 days ago, its estimates are again on the rise.The shares carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and at 16.1X P/E, they’re trading below their median level over the past year. Definitely worth considering.Range Resources Corp. RRCBased in Fort Worth, TX, Range Resources is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development and acquisition of oil and gas properties, primarily in the Appalachian Basin and North Louisiana. It is among the top 10 natural gas producers in the U.S. and is among the top NGL producers in the domestic market.The Appalachian Basin incorporates prolific acreages in Marcellus, Utica and Upper Devonian shale formations. In the Marcellus formation of the basin, it has a multi-decade inventory of premium drilling locations. Of the 3,100 undrilled wells in the region, 2,600 wells are liquids-rich and the rest have a natural gas predominance. Following the merger with Memorial Resource Development Corporation a few years back, Range Resources created a core acreage position in North Louisiana comprising 140,000 net acers with multiple formations of productive oil and natural gas.The company primarily sells its produced natural gas to midstream firms, utilities, marketing companies and industrial users. It also sells natural gas liquids (NGLs) and crude oil.As of Dec 31, 2020, total proved reserves were 17.2 trillion cubic feet equivalent (Tcfe), almost flat year over year. Around 95% of the company’s total proved reserves are located in the Marcellus region. Of the total proved reserves, roughly 57% was developed.Despite its considerable liquid resources, the company has been focusing on natural gas production because of growing global demand for clean energy. In 2020, its total production averaged 2.23 million cubic feet equivalent per day, of which 69.4% was natural gas. A similar trend is seen this year.Range Resources’ revenue is expected to grow 38.9% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022. Earnings are expected to increase 2000% and 45.5%, respectively in the two years. Estimates for both years have been rising steadily: the 2021 estimate increased 47.4% in the last 90 days while the 2022 estimate increased 93.0%.The shares carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). At 8.7X P/E, they’re trading below their median level over the past year, making them really cheap at these levels.Continental Resources, Inc. CLROklahoma City, OK-based Continental Resources is an explorer and producer of oil and natural gas. The company operates premium resources in the North Dakota Bakken and Montana Bakken (among the country’s largest onshore oilfields) in northern U.S., the SCOOP and STACK plays of Oklahoma in southern U.S. and undeveloped leasehold acreage in eastern U.S. It also has strategic water assets in Bakken and Oklahoma.Given its presence in prolific regions, the company expects oil equivalent production growth of 8-10% CAGR from 2019 to 2023 which is expected to translate to average annual free cash flow of $3.5-$4 billion over the five-year period.At the end of 2020, the company’s estimated proved reserves were 1,103.8 MMBoe. During 2020, the company produced 300,090 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d), lower than 340,395 Boe/d in the year-ago quarter. Of the total production, oil accounted for nearly 58.2%.The company’s 2021 revenue and earnings are currently expected to grow 101.9% and 436.8%, respectively. While analysts still expect 2022 growth to be negative, estimates for both years continue to increase substantially (from $2.35 to $3.94 in 2021 and from $1.97 to $3.68 in 2022). The stronger pricing this year is clearly driving the numbers.The shares of this Zacks Rank #1 company are currently trading at a P/S of 2.99X, which is between their median and high values over the past year, although much lower than the S&P 500. While not cheap, they can’t be considered expensive either.Goodrich Petroleum Corp. GDPHouston, Texas-based Goodrich Petroleum is an exploration and production company. It primarily holds interests in the Haynesville Shale Trend in northwest Louisiana and East Texas; Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Trend located in southwest Mississippi and southeast Louisiana; and the Eagle Ford Shale Trend in South Texas. The company owns interests in 189 producing oil and natural gas wells located in 37 fields in six states of the United States.As of December 31, 2020, it had estimated proved reserves of approximately 543 billion cubic feet equivalent, which included 540 billion cubic feet of natural gas and 0.5 million barrels of crude oil or other liquid hydrocarbons of oil and condensate.The company’s revenues are expected to grow 60.5% this year and another 22.4% in the next. Its earnings are expected to grow 1676.2% this year followed by 25.3% growth in the next. Estimates for both years are galloping ahead. In the past 90 days, they’ve gone from $2.17 to 3.73 for 2021 and from 2.74 to 4.67 for 2022.Shares of this Zacks Rank #1 stock currently trade at 4.9X P/E, which is below their median level over the past year, and of course much lower than the S&P. They’re a steal at these levels.Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas is an independent upstream operator engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids. Headquartered in Houston, TX, the firm is focused on the high-quality Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations in South Texas.In South Texas, Magnolia’s position consists of more than 460,000 net acres, of which around 23,500 net acres are located in the highly productive Karnes County and nearly 440,000 net acres in the re-emerging Giddings Field.At Dec 31, 2020, Magnolia's total estimated proved reserves were 49.3 million barrels ((MMBbls) of oil, 28.5 MMBbls of natural gas liquids (“NGL”) and 207.6 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas, totaling 112.3 million barrels of oil-equivalent (MMboe) — 69% liquids, 76% developed.The company focuses on growth through a combination of acquisitions and active drilling. Since its inception in 2018, Magnolia has spent around 60% of operating cash flow on capital expenditures, 26% on acquisitions, 8% on stock buybacks, while preserving the remaining 6% as cash. In particular, Magnolia is focused on returning significant cash to its shareholders: it aims to repurchase 1% of its total scrips outstanding each quarter and introduce a semi-annual cash dividend in 2021.Given the COVID-related disruption in 2020, it’s understandable that revenue and earnings are expected to jump 88.7% and 10050% this year. But the 6.7% revenue growth and flattish earnings slated for the following year are particularly encouraging.The Zacks Rank #1 shares are trading cheap at 8.23X earnings (below median level of 12.09X over the past year). One-Month Price PerformanceImage Source: Zacks Investment Research More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Range Resources Corporation (RRC): Free Stock Analysis Report Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG): Free Stock Analysis Report Continental Resources, Inc. (CLR): Free Stock Analysis Report Goodrich Petroleum Corporation (GDP): Free Stock Analysis Report Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Taiwan Seeks Entry Into Key Trade Pact Before China, Says Simultaneous Bid "Quite Risky"

Taiwan Seeks Entry Into Key Trade Pact Before China, Says Simultaneous Bid "Quite Risky" China and Taiwan are increasingly entering a war of words as both are within the last week seeking to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or CPTPP. The Pacific trade pact involves Japan, Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and others among 11 total countries, which began in 2018 - though previous to that it was known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and ironically was long deemed a crucial economic counterweight to China's regional influence.  On Wednesday, merely less than a week after Beijing announced its own bid for formal membership, Taiwan's Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs Chen Chern-chyi unveiled the application in a press conference while Cabinet spokesperson Lo Ping-cheng said, "Applying to join the CPTPP is an important economic and trade policy that the government has worked hard to promote for a long time." Taiwan's chief trade negotiator John Deng admitted on the same day that "it will pose a major obstacle for Taiwan to join the trade bloc if Beijing joins it first." Beijing's 'One China' policy has attempted to aggressively enforce the idea that Taiwan can't join international trade pacts and institutions.  Source: EPA-EFE Deng followed up in Thursday statements by pointing out that China consistently attempts to obstruct Taiwan's participation in global trade and entities, underscoring that, "So if China joins first, Taiwan’s membership case should be quite risky. This is quite obvious." "I stress that Taiwan is an sovereign, independent nation. It has its own name. But for trade deals the name we have used for years is the least controversial," Deng added. He explained further: But Taiwan has a different "system" from China, Deng added, pointing to Taiwan’s democracy, rule of law, transparent laws and respect for personal property. However he said there was no direct connection between Taiwan’s decision to apply and China’s, which has yet to comment on Taiwan’s application. "How mainland China comments on this is a matter for them," Deng said. He added that Taiwan, a major semiconductor producer, has applied to join under the name it uses in the World Trade Organization (WTO) — the Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu. Taiwan is a member of the WTO and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) grouping. Last week Chinese state-run media hailed the Beijing's own application application as affirming China's leading role in global trade and success in resisting Washington pressures. For example Communist Party mouthpiece Global Times had this to say in a prior op-ed just hours after the announcement: The late-night announcement aims to cement China's leadership role in global trade, while piling pressure on the US that has thus far stayed away from rejoining the revised version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a regional trade pact initiated by the US under former President Barack Obama that was widely believed to be aimed at containing China's rise, experts said.  GT took further swipes, suggesting China represents multilateralism in the face of Washington bullying as follows: China is hoping for the CPTPP to put global trade and economic cooperation back on track, underscoring the need for multilateralism, thereby reviving both the Chinese economy and the global economy in the post-COVID-19 era. More importantly, watchers of international affairs stressed that China's latest step that is set to steady its partnership with CPTPP members, would inevitably subject the US to what could be overwhelming pressure. So without doubt, officials in Beijing will see Taiwan's bid for CPTPP membership as but yet more Washington meddling with a US 'hidden hand' challenging One China. On Thursday outspoken GT editor Hu Xijin weighed in with the following... Taiwan applied to join the CPTPP. If Taiwan wants to use this process to reinforce its impact on the one-China policy, I can say with certainty that it cannot enter the CPTPP. — Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) September 23, 2021 Currently Japan has the foremost visible leadership role in the CPTPP, which could further complicate things in terms of both China and Taiwan applying at the same time, given current rising Japan-China tensions are centered precisely on Tokyo's recent willingness to take a pro-Washington line on the matter. Meanwhile, Britain began negotiations to enter the trans-Pacific trade pact in June, and its own case is front and center, said to be proceeding the fastest at the moment. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 20:40.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytSep 23rd, 2021

GH Research PLC Provides Business Updates and Reports Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results

DUBLIN, Ireland, Sept. 23, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GH Research PLC (NASDAQ:GHRS), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to transforming the treatment of psychiatric and neurological disorders, today provided business updates and reported financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2021. Business Updates Corporate Updates In June 2021, we completed our initial public offering, in which we issued and sold an aggregate of 11,499,999 ordinary shares, including those issued and sold pursuant to the exercise in full of the underwriters' option to purchase additional ordinary shares, at a price of $16.00 per share. The net proceeds of the offering were $167.7 million, after deducting underwriting discounts and offering expenses payable by us. Today we announced that Dermot Hanley and Dr. Duncan Moore have been appointed to our Board of Directors as non-executive directors effective September 24, 2021, expanding the Board to five members. Mr. Hanley and Dr. Moore will also serve as members of the Audit Committee. Mr. Hanley is an experienced independent non-executive director and investment banker, having previously served as Co-Head of Coverage for Barclays Bank Ireland and having spent 16 years in international investment banking and capital markets roles with major global firms, including Claret Capital, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Citibank. Dr. Moore is currently a partner at East West Capital Partners. Prior roles included 17 years as a top-ranked pharmaceutical analyst at Morgan Stanley, including 11 years as a Managing Director leading the firm's global healthcare equity research team. Clinical Development Updates GH001, our inhalable 5-Methoxy-N,N-Dimethyltryptamine (5-MeO-DMT) product candidate, is currently being investigated in the Phase 2 part of an ongoing open-label, single-arm Phase 1/2 clinical trial in patients with Treatment-Resistant Depression (TRD). Based on the observed clinical activity in the Phase 1 part of the trial, we believe that administration of a single dose of GH001 has the potential to induce ultra-rapid remissions as measured by the Montgomery–Åsberg Depression Rating Scale, or MADRS, in certain patients. The goal of the ongoing Phase 2 part, which we expect to complete in the fourth quarter of 2021, is to assess whether an individualized dosing regimen with intra-subject dose escalation within a single day can further increase the MADRS remission rate as compared to a single dose of GH001. We have previously announced the plan to conduct a clinical pharmacology trial in healthy volunteers to further elucidate the pharmacokinetic profile of GH001. This trial has been initiated and is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2021. Pending completion of the aforementioned studies, we plan to request a pre-IND meeting with the FDA and a Scientific Advice meeting with the EMA and plan to initiate a multi-center, randomized, controlled Phase 2b trial in TRD. Given GH001's mechanism of action, we believe that GH001 may confer beneficial effects as an earlier line of treatment in MDD, including potential to serve as a front-line treatment, as well as in other psychiatric and neurological disorders with unmet medical need. We plan to initiate proof-of-concept Phase 2a trials in two such disorders. GH002, our injectable 5-MeO-DMT product candidate, is currently in preclinical development. We anticipate developing GH002 in indications within our focus area of psychiatric and neurological disorders. Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results Cash position Cash was $292.6 million as of June 30, 2021, compared to $5.9 million as of December 31, 2020. Research and development expenses R&D expenses were $2 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2021, compared to $39 thousand for the same quarter in 2020. The increase was primarily due to increased activities relating to our technical developments and clinical trials and increases in employee expenses to support these activities. General and administrative expenses G&A expenses were $719 thousand for the quarter ended June 30, 2021, compared to $3 thousand for the same quarter in 2020. The increase was primarily due to costs incurred in preparation for our initial public offering and increased employee expenses. Net loss Net loss was $2.1 million, or $0.053 loss per share, for the quarter ended June 30, 2021, compared to $42 thousand, or $0.002 loss per share, for the same quarter in 2020. About GH Research PLC GH Research PLC is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to transforming the treatment of psychiatric and neurological disorders. GH Research PLC's initial focus is on developing its novel and proprietary 5-MeO-DMT therapies for the treatment of patients with Treatment-Resistant Depression. About GH001 Our lead product candidate, GH001, is formulated for 5-MeO-DMT administration via a proprietary inhalation approach. We are currently investigating administration of GH001 as a single-dose induction regimen and in an individualized dosing regimen where up to three escalating doses of GH001 are given on the same day. With GH001, we have completed a Phase 1 healthy volunteer clinical trial, in which administration of GH001 via inhalation was observed to be well tolerated at the investigated single dose levels and in the individualized dosing regimen. GH001 is currently being investigated in the Phase 2 part of an ongoing Phase 1/2 clinical trial in patients with TRD. In the completed Phase 1 part of this ongoing trial, no serious adverse events were observed and all adverse drug reactions were mild and resolved spontaneously. Based on observed clinical activity, we believe that administration of a single dose of GH001 has the potential to induce ultra-rapid remissions as measured by the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale, or MADRS, in certain patients. The goal of the ongoing Phase 2 part of the trial is to assess whether an individualized dosing regimen with intra-subject dose escalation within a single day can further increase the MADRS remission rate as compared to a single dose of GH001. About GH002 GH002 is our 5-MeO-DMT product candidate formulated for administration via a proprietary injectable approach. GH002 is currently in preclinical development, and we anticipate developing GH002 in indications within our focus area of psychiatric and neurological disorders. About Dermot Hanley Mr. Hanley is an experienced independent non-executive director and investment banker. He is currently a non-executive board member of numerous private equity backed companies and regulated financial investment funds. These include Killiney Maritime since September 2018, Larix Opportunities Master ICAV since February 2020, Varagon Capital Credit Strategies ICAV since October 2020. Additionally, he has served as Chairperson of RTW Investments ICAV since January 2021 and CVP Credit Value Fund (Europe) V GP Limited since May 2021. He founded Nusli in 2012. Previously, Mr. Hanley was Co-Head of Coverage for Barclays Bank Ireland and spent 16 years in international investment banking and capital markets roles with major global firms, including Claret Capital, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Citibank. He is a member of the Governance Advisory Council for The Corporate Governance Institute and is also a longstanding member of the Finance and Economics Committee (Ecotax) at The Irish Business and Employers Confederation. He is a graduate of University College Dublin (BSc) and The Queens University of Belfast (MBA) and holds a diploma in corporate governance from The Governance Institute/Glasgow Caledonia University. About Duncan Moore Dr. Moore is a partner at East West Capital Partners since May 2008. Previously, Dr. Moore was a top-ranked pharmaceutical analyst at Morgan Stanley from 1991 to 2008 and was a Managing Director from 1997 to 2008 leading the firm's global healthcare equity research team. Whilst at the University of Cambridge, he co-founded a medical diagnostics company, Ultra Clone, with two colleagues which led to the beginnings of a 20-year career in healthcare capital markets analysis. In 1986, he was involved in establishing the BankInvest biotechnology funds and was on their scientific advisory board. Dr. Moore was educated in Edinburgh and attended the University of Leeds where he studied Biochemistry and Microbiology. He has a M.Phil. and Ph.D. from the University of Cambridge where he was also a post-doctoral research fellow. Currently, he is an active investor in biomedical companies as Chairman of Lamellar Biomedical and Allarity Therapeutics A/S (previously Oncology Venture A/S). In addition, he has a board position at Forward Pharma A/S and Cycle Pharma. He is also the Chairman of the Scottish Life Sciences Association and serves on the Board of Governors of Merchiston Castle School in Edinburgh and the International School in Shenzhen in the Peoples Republic of China. Forward-Looking Statements This press release contains statements that are, or may deemed to be, forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this press release, including statements regarding our future results of operations and financial position, business strategy, product candidates, research pipeline, ongoing and currently planned preclinical studies and clinical trials, regulatory submissions and approvals, research and development costs, timing and likelihood of success, as well as plans and objectives of management for future operations are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements appear in a number of places in this press release and include, but are not limited to, statements regarding our intent, belief or current expectations. Forward-looking statements are based on our management's beliefs and assumptions and on information currently available to our management. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to various factors, including, but not limited to, those described in our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. No assurance can be given that such future results will be achieved. Such forward-looking statements contained in this document speak only as of the date of this press release. We expressly disclaim any obligation or undertaking to update these forward-looking statements contained in this press release to reflect any change in our expectations or any change in events, conditions, or circumstances on which such statements are based unless required to do so by applicable law. No representations or warranties (expressed or implied) are made about the accuracy of any such forward-looking statements. Investor Relations:Julie RyanGH Research PLCinvestors@ghres.com GH RESEARCH PLCCondensed Consolidated Interim Statement of Comprehensive Income (Unaudited)(in thousands, except share and per share amounts)     Three months endedJune 30,   Six months endedJune 30,     2021 2020   2021 2020     $'000 $'000   $'000 $'000      .....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaSep 23rd, 2021

Ready to invest in Bitcoin? Here are 4 steps to get started

Here's everything you need to know about how to invest in bitcoin, from choosing an exchange and crypto wallet, to picking the right trading strategy. There are a variety of ways to invest in bitcoin, even if you aren't a professional day trader or regularly play the currency markets. Alyssa Powell/Insider Table of Contents: Masthead Sticky Bitcoin investing involves choosing an exchange, verifying your identity, and withdrawing to a wallet. Investing in bitcoin is risky since it's a volatile and speculative asset. Experts recommend using a buy-and-hold strategy when buying bitcoin, in order to average out rises and falls. Visit Insider's Investing Reference library for more stories. More than a decade into its existence, Bitcoin doesn't seem to be going away. The cryptocurrency has attracted good and bad headlines as it's worked its way through multiple peaks over the years, and despite a reputation for volatility, it continues to attract new investors with its promise of market-beating returns.Here's what to know about investing in Bitcoin.What to know about Bitcoin Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency. This means it's a form of electronic money that secures and validates transactions via the use of cryptography. In Bitcoin's case, people and organizations known as "miners" use computing hardware to calculate a code - known as a "hash" - that encrypts the data contained in transactions. This data is collected into "blocks," which are linked together in a blockchain that cannot, in theory, be changed once written.On an economic level, Bitcoin's creator - the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto - created it in 2008 as a form of "sound money," akin to digital gold."What makes Bitcoin so special is that it has a finite supply of 21 million coins, with only a couple million left to be mined," explains Edward Moya, chief market strategist at OANDA's MarketPulse. "Simple supply and demand for Bitcoin is the main reason why prices have skyrocketed over the past year."Despite having a fixed maximum supply, Bitcoin has shown remarkable volatility throughout most of its life with major fluctuations in its price.Such swings make Bitcoin a highly speculative asset, one that should be considered only by traders willing to stomach a fair amount of risk. That said, at least some analysts suspect that its volatility will gradually decline over time, as its market grows and reduces its destabilizing reliance on leverage.Step 1: Choose a crypto exchange For most people, the best place to buy Bitcoin is on a crypto exchange. These are online platforms dedicated to facilitating trades in cryptocurrency, usually by offering trading pairs (e.g., USD to Bitcoin) and usually by matching buyers with sellers.In the US, the leading crypto exchange by volume and customer base is Coinbase. That said, other reputable - and regulated - crypto-exchanges include Kraken, Gemini, eToro, and Crypto.com.More inexperienced traders may wish to try a more general trading platform such as Robinhood. These have the benefit of being more user-friendly than the average crypto exchange, although their major downside is that many don't let users withdraw their bitcoin.Quick tip: New investors should check the fees charged by exchanges, since these can vary quite widely. They should also check for the minimum account balance required by their chosen platform, since certain exchanges impose a minimum. Others also set minimums for account deposits via bank transfer.Step 2: Choose a payment methodExchanges also vary in terms of the payment methods they support. Most major platforms do offer the option of linking your bank account for wire and ACH transfers, as well as the option of linking a debit card. Some also let you pay via PayPal, with Coinbase also supporting Apple Pay.Quick tip: Most bank transfer deposit options incur no fees. Nonetheless, certain special services (e.g., FedWire via Silvergate or Synapse) may require a small charge (e.g., $1 or $5), while using PayPal to deposit money into your exchange incurs a 2.5% charge with Coinbase, for instance.Regardless of the option you choose, you will have to verify your identity when first signing up for an account and registering a payment method. In the US, you're usually required to submit a scan of a state-issued ID, such as a driver's license or identification card.Depending on where you are and on your chosen platform, you may also be required to provide scans of additional documentation (such as your passport), as well as being asked to submit a proof of address.Step 3: Place your order Once you're verified and have deposited cash into your account, you can then begin buying Bitcoin. This process varies according to the exchange you use, with some exchanges offering a process that simply involves clicking a Buy or Sell button and then specifying how much Bitcoin you want to buy (or sell).In general, most crypto exchanges offer at least three basic order types:Market order: the option to choose if you simply want to buy Bitcoin at its current price. This type of order is usually completed in a matter of seconds, depending on the time of day.Stop order: an order where you specify the price at which you will buy or sell Bitcoin. This type is good if you want to make sure you sell Bitcoin before it falls too sharply. This type of order can take some time to execute, depending on how quickly the market moves.Limit order: instructs the exchange to execute a buy or sell order at a specific price or better. In contrast to stop orders, limit orders are visible to the market and can take longer to fill.Again, executing any one of these options usually involves clicking a Buy, Trade, or New order button on an exchange's home screen. You'll then be able to choose from the above three (and more advanced) options, before clicking a Submit button or something equivalent.Quick tip: All exchanges will let you buy a fraction of a bitcoin (BTC). So while the price of 1 BTC may seem prohibitively expensive right now, you will be able to choose to buy 0.1 BTC, 0.01 BTC or whatever else you type into the exchange's interface.How to buy Bitcoin with PayPalPayPal has enabled its US-based customers to buy Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) since October 2020. But before you can purchase Bitcoin, you'll have to agree to their terms and conditions and then set up a PayPal Balance account first. From the home screen, click the button that looks like a bar graph. Jasmine Suarez/Insider Click Bitcoin. PayPal also offers the option to buy Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. Jasmine Suarez/Insider Scroll down and select how much you'd like to purchase. Then click Buy. PayPal provides preset amounts of Bitcoin you can purchase. Jasmine Suarez/Insider Quick tip: When you press the Buy button for the first time, you'll have to prove your identity (if you haven't done so on PayPal already). This involves providing your name, physical address, date of birth, and taxpayer identification number, and may also include submitting a copy of your ID and showing proof of address.Step 4: Store your crypto in a safe place While bigger exchanges are becoming safer, hacks and fraud remain a big problem for the industry. This is why investors with significant sums in Bitcoin are advised to consider storing their cryptocurrency themselves."Experienced traders that are very good with cybersecurity might prefer to own their wallets, as this gives you the ability to move your cryptocurrencies whenever you want to and not be subject to an exchange. The saying 'Not your keys, not your coins' was popular last year, as many exchanges got hacked or shut down," says Moya.This means transferring your Bitcoin from the exchange you use to your own cryptocurrency wallet. Such wallets come in two forms:Cold wallets: also known as hardware wallets, these are small devices that store your Bitcoin address' private key, which is necessary to transfer Bitcoin out of the address. They do not connect to the internet and are therefore considered safer than online, software-based alternatives.Hot wallets: also known as software wallets, these are apps that can be used through your phone, desktop computer, or web browser. They also store the private key of your Bitcoin address, but because they do connect to the internet, they aren't considered quite as safe as hardware/cold wallets.Software wallets aren't quite as secure as hardware wallets, but the leading varieties do still offer a range of security features, such as two-factor authentication and compatibility with hardware wallets.Selling bitcoin While many traders turn to Bitcoin in the hope of making big money fast, pretty much every analyst advocates a long-term, buy-and-hold strategy. This is largely because holding for a longer period of time tends to average out gains and losses, providing a greater probability of a significant positive return by the time you sell your Bitcoin."In my opinion, it is better to buy and hold, perhaps allocating a small portion of your portfolio to cryptocurrencies, focusing on the ones typically held by institutional investors, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum at the moment," says Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.Likewise, many analysts also recommend adopting a dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) strategy, largely because this is another way of averaging out peaks and troughs."The best strategy for newcomers would be to [trade] Bitcoin on the DCA approach [...] you'll just buy a tiny bit on a monthly or weekly basis, not looking at the price movements at all," says Michaël van de Poppe, the CEO and founder of cryptocurrency consultancy, Eight.However, Moya warns that even with a long-term hold strategy, new traders are generally advised to enter the world of Bitcoin investing with the mindset that they could lose most of their money. "A new investor should only apply a very low, single-digit percentage of their trading portfolio to cryptocurrencies. Despite the many bullish calls for Bitcoin or Ethereum, massive plunges have happened in minutes. New investors may want to consider buying and holding a basket of cryptocurrencies, with an approach of scaling into positions," he says.A longer-term approach is also beneficial from a tax perspective, since Bitcoin is classified as property in the US, and therefore liable to capital gains tax when sold. Quick tip: You'll have to pay capital gains tax if you sell bitcoin after holding it for more than one year. But if you hold for less than a year, your gains are taxed as ordinary income. Investors with an annual income of $40,000 or less pay no capital gains tax on Bitcoin profits, whereas those in the next bracket pay 15%.The financial takeawayBitcoin is an interesting and exciting technological innovation, representing a form of decentralized electronic money that doesn't require a central authority (such as the Federal Reserve) to operate. It's also exciting from an investment perspective, with its high annual returns (in most years) making it one of the best-performing assets of the past decade, even if its volatility means it has suffered more than a few dramatic falls.While investing in Bitcoin may seem complicated, starting off is as simple as picking a reputable exchange and setting up an account. Once you've verified your identity and deposited some money, you're then good to go, with most exchanges offering a range of order types in addition to the ability to simply buy Bitcoin.When you've acquired a significant sum of Bitcoin, most experts recommend withdrawing it to your own cold (i.e., hardware) wallet. They also recommend a buy-and-hold strategy, so that you can iron out market dips and also avoid having your profits taxed as ordinary income.A bitcoin IRA lets you profit from the cryptocurrency's potential gains in a tax-advantaged wayAltcoins are the alternative digital currencies to bitcoin - here's what they are and how they workWhat is Ethereum? What to know before investingWhat to know about non-fungible tokens (NFTs) - unique digital assets built on blockchain technologyRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderSep 23rd, 2021

"It All Depends On One Word - Trust" - John Rubino Warns "Worst-Case Scenario Too Horrible" To Consider

"It All Depends On One Word - Trust" - John Rubino Warns "Worst-Case Scenario Too Horrible" To Consider Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com, It looks like we are on track for yet another global financial meltdown.  This time it is coming out of China in the form of a failed property development company called Evergrande.  It’s five times bigger than Lehman Brothers, whose failure cratered the global economy in 2008.  Will central banks, including the Fed, just let it all fail or will they print massive amounts of money trying to stop the fall?   If history is a guide, we should get ready for the most money creation ever.  In May, financial writer John Rubino said, “This is beyond the ability of any individual to fix.  We can’t save the system.” We sure can print a lot of money to try though. Massive global money printing is what is coming, and it will come with huge consequences for all fiat currencies.  Rubino explains, “Stocks are tanking, cryptos are tanking, currencies of the world are getting volatile, politics are volatile and gold is going up while all this is happening, which it is supposed to do.  Gold is supposed to be the safe haven where you hide out when nothing else seems trustworthy... That hasn’t been the case in prior bear markets.  When stocks tanked, they pulled down gold and silver... It’s a good sign when markets start to behave rationally again.  When high risk assets don’t seem worth it anymore, capital flows into real assets that hold their value no matter what the government is doing to the currency.  That’s the way it’s supposed to work, and that is the way it is working... Trust is probably the key word in this whole discussion.  Fiat only exists because we trust the people who are managing them to maintain their value.  You take the trust away and there is nothing there.  A fiat currency is not a real thing.  It doesn’t actually exist other than little pieces of paper that have no intrinsic value or computer code, which also has no intrinsic value.  So, you take away the trust that we had in the Fed, Treasury, Congress and the President to do the right thing, and be honest, when it comes to the financial markets, you take that away and there really isn’t anything there.  Nobody would want to hold a currency managed by people they can’t trust.  Pay attention to that because the less we trust the guys in charge, the less we trust the currency.  The less we trust the currency, the less we trust the financial markets and the less valuable these financial assets are.  So, it all ties together, and it all depends on that one word—Trust.” What’s Rubino’s biggest fear?  Rubino warns, “My biggest fear is that we screw up our finances, we screw up geopolitics, and we get into a big war because we are close to that now.   The U.S., Russia and China are bumping up against each other, and we are like scorpions in a bottle on this little planet with all these high tech weapons. . . . My biggest fear is we take it well beyond the world of finance to no holds barred military action.  There’s no way to predict anything when you start doing something like that.  The worst case scenario is too horrible to even think about.” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with John Rubio, founder of the popular website DollarCollapse.com.  To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 16:25.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytSep 23rd, 2021

AAR Reports First Quarter 2022 Results

First quarter sales of $455 million, up 14% over the prior year First quarter GAAP diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of $0.31 compared to a loss per share of $(0.40) in Q1 FY2021 Adjusted diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of $0.52, up 206% from $0.17 in Q1 FY2021 First quarter cash flow from operating activities from continuing operations of $18 million WOOD DALE, Ill., Sept. 23, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- AAR CORP. (NYSE:AIR) today reported first quarter Fiscal Year 2022 consolidated sales of $455.1 million and income from continuing operations of $11.2 million, or $0.31 per diluted share. For the first quarter of the prior year, the Company reported sales of $400.8 million and loss from continuing operations of $13.9 million, or $0.40 per diluted share. Our adjusted diluted earnings per share from continuing operations in the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2022 were $0.52 compared to $0.17 in the first quarter of the prior year. Current quarter results included net pretax adjustments of $9.9 million, or $0.21 per share, primarily due to a previously disclosed customer contract termination and related asset impairment charges. Consolidated first quarter sales increased 14% over the prior year quarter. Our consolidated sales to commercial customers increased 53% over the prior year quarter primarily due to the recovery in the commercial market from the impact of COVID-19. Our consolidated sales to government customers decreased 17% primarily related to timing as the prior year quarter included significant activity across both our U.S. Marine Corps C-40 and U.S. Air Force pallet contracts. On a sequential basis, consolidated first quarter sales increased 4% over the fourth quarter. Our consolidated sales to commercial customers increased 17% over the fourth quarter while consolidated sales to government customers decreased 10%. Sales to commercial customers were 59% of consolidated sales compared to 44% in the prior year's quarter reflecting the recovery in the commercial market from the impact of COVID-19. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, we announced several new contract awards including: Exclusive distribution agreement with Arkwin Industries covering its broad line of engine actuation and commercial aviation products, which complement our existing engine parts offerings Firm, fixed price contract from the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration for the conversion and delivery of a Boeing 737-700 aircraft Extension of our long-term, component support agreement with Volotea, a growing low-cost carrier in Spain, for its fleet of Airbus narrowbody aircraft utilizing our logistics centers in Europe "We had a very strong start to the year across our commercial business. We saw robust performance in our MRO operations and continued recovery in our parts activities. We also secured new government and commercial program contract awards while adding another exclusive new parts distribution agreement, which we expect to contribute to our long-term growth," said John M. Holmes, President and Chief Executive Officer of AAR CORP. Gross profit margins increased from 12.1% in the prior year quarter to 14.2% in the current quarter and adjusted gross profit margin increased from 13.0% to 16.1%, primarily due to the favorable impact from our actions to reduce costs and increase our operating efficiency. Expeditionary Services profitability increased significantly from 10.8% to 19.0% reflecting the sale of the Composites business in the prior year quarter and improved execution in the Mobility business. Selling, general and administrative expenses increased from $45.3 million to $49.3 million mainly due to restoration of temporary compensation reductions. Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percent of sales decreased from 11.3% to 10.8% due to the favorable impact from our cost reduction actions. Operating margin increased from 0.8% in the prior year quarter to 3.3% in the current quarter and adjusted operating margin increased from 2.5% to 5.5%, primarily due to the favorable impact from our actions to reduce costs and increase our operating efficiency. Sequentially, our adjusted operating margin increased from 5.2% in the fourth quarter to 5.5% in the current quarter. In conjunction with the U.S. exit from Afghanistan, we have concluded our activities in country under our WASS and U.S. Department of Defense contracts. The operations related to our activities in Afghanistan contributed revenue of $67 million in Fiscal 2021. Holmes continued, "I am extremely proud of our WASS team and their work in Afghanistan. Our team played a vital role in helping to evacuate over 2,000 U.S. Embassy personnel over a 36 hour period. This was a very difficult operation in a challenging environment but all of our flights were completed successfully and once our mission was accomplished, all of our AAR team members were safely evacuated. We are very grateful for their service." Net interest expense for the quarter was $0.7 million compared to $1.6 million last year. Average diluted share count increased to 35.7 million from 35.0 million in the prior year quarter. Cash flow provided by operating activities from continuing operations was $17.5 million during the current quarter compared to $39.8 million in the prior year quarter, which included $48.5 million related to our receipt of funding from the CARES Act through the Payroll Support Program. Excluding our accounts receivable financing program, our cash flow provided by operating activities from continuing operations was $25.9 million in the current quarter. Holmes concluded, "Our continued focus on driving operating efficiency and working capital management led to another quarter of sequential margin improvement and strong cash flow. Looking forward, while the U.S. exit from Afghanistan will impact our government business in the near term, we are encouraged by the strong pipeline of offsetting government opportunities such as the recent contract award from the Department of Energy. In our commercial markets, the timing of the recovery has been impacted by the Delta variant, but as we continue to see demand increase, particularly in our parts activities, we expect continued growth and operating margin expansion." Conference Call Information                                         AAR will hold its quarterly conference call at 3:45 p.m. CT on September 23, 2021. The conference call can be accessed by calling 866-802-4322 from inside the U.S. or +1-703-639-1319 from outside the U.S. A replay of the conference call will also be available by calling 855-859-2056 from inside the U.S. or +1-404-537-3406 from outside the U.S. (access code 8294140). The replay will be available from 7:15 p.m. CT on September 23, 2021 until 10:59 p.m. CT on September 29, 2021. About AAR AAR is a global aerospace and defense aftermarket solutions company with operations in over 20 countries. Headquartered in the Chicago area, AAR supports commercial and government customers through two operating segments: Aviation Services and Expeditionary Services. AAR's Aviation Services include parts supply; OEM solutions; integrated solutions; maintenance, repair, overhaul; and engineering. AAR's Expeditionary Services include mobility systems operations. Additional information can be found at www.aarcorp.com. Contact: Dylan Wolin – Vice President, Strategic & Corporate Development and Treasurer | (630) 227-2017 | dylan.wolin@aarcorp.com This press release contains certain statements relating to future results, which are forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which reflect management's expectations about future conditions, including but not limited to (i) the ability of our latest distribution, government and commercial programs contract awards to support continued long-term growth,(ii) the impact of our continued focus on driving operating efficiency and working capital management on sequential margin improvement and cash flow, (iii) the impact on our government business in the near term of the recent U.S. exit from Afghanistan, (iv) the impact of the strong pipeline of offsetting government opportunities on our future results and (v) our expectations regarding continued growth and operating margin expansion. Forward-looking statements often address our expected future operating and financial performance and financial condition, or sustainability targets, goals, commitments, and other business plans, and often may also be identified because they contain words such as "anticipate," "believe," "continue," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "likely," "may," "might," "plan," "potential," "predict," "project," "seek," "should," "target," "will," "would," or similar expressions and the negatives of those terms. These forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs of Company management, as well as assumptions and estimates based on information available to the Company as of the dates such assumptions and estimates are made, and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated, depending on a variety of factors, including: (i) factors that adversely affect the commercial aviation industry; (ii) the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on air travel, worldwide commercial activity and our and our customers' ability to source parts and components; (iii) a reduction in the level of sales to the branches, agencies and departments of the U.S. government and their contractors (which were 44.7% of total sales in fiscal 2021); (iv) non-compliance with laws and regulations relating to the formation, administration and performance of our U.S. government contracts; (v) cost overruns and losses on fixed-price contracts; (vi) nonperformance by subcontractors or suppliers; (vii) changes in or non-compliance with laws and regulations that may affect certain of our aviation and government and defense related activities that are subject to licensing, certification and other regulatory requirements imposed by the FAA, the U.S. State Department and other regulatory agencies, both domestic and foreign; (viii) a reduction in outsourcing of maintenance activity by airlines; (ix) a shortage of the skilled personnel on whom we depend to operate our business, or work stoppages; (x) competition from other companies, including original equipment manufacturers, some of which have greater financial resources than we do; (xi) financial and operational risks arising as a result of operating internationally; (xii) inability to integrate acquisitions effectively and execute our operational and financial plan related to the acquisitions; (xiii) inability to recover our costs due to fluctuations in market values for aviation products and equipment caused by various factors, including reductions in air travel, airline bankruptcies, consolidations and fleet reductions; (xiv) asset impairment charges we may be required to recognize to reflect the non-recoverability of our assets or lowered expectations regarding businesses we have acquired; (xv) limitations on our ability to access the debt and equity capital markets or to draw down funds under loan agreements; (xvi) non-compliance with restrictive and financial covenants contained in certain of our loan agreements, and government funding received under the CARES Act; (xvii) restrictions on paying, or failure to maintain or pay dividends; (xviii) exposure to product liability and property claims that may be in excess of our liability insurance coverage; (xix) threats to our systems technology from equipment failures' cyber and other security y breaches or other disruptions; (xx) the costs of compliance, and liability for non-compliance, with environmental regulations, including future requirements regarding climate change; and (xxi) a need to make significant capital expenditures to keep pace with technological developments in our industry. Should one or more of those risks or uncertainties materialize adversely, or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described. Those events and uncertainties are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many are beyond our control. For a discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties, refer to our Annual Report on Form 10-K, Part I, "Item 1A, Risk Factors" and our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. These events and uncertainties are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many are beyond the Company's control. The risks described in these reports are not the only risks we face, as additional risks and uncertainties are not currently known or foreseeable or impossible to predict accurately or risks that are beyond the Company's control or deemed immaterial may materially adversely affect our business, financial condition or results of operations in future periods. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of such statements or to reflect the occurrence of anticipated or unanticipated events. AAR CORP. and Subsidiaries Consolidated Statements of Operations (In millions except per share data - unaudited) Three Months Ended August 31,     2021       2020                   Sales $ 455.1     $ 400.8   Cost and expenses:               Cost of sales   390.5       352.2   Selling, general and administrative   49.3       45.3   Loss from joint ventures   (0.2 )     (0.1 ) Operating income   15.1       3.2   Loss on sale of business   ––       (19.5 ) Interest expense, net   (0.7 )     (1.6 ) Other income, net   0.7       0.2   Income (Loss) from continuing operations before income taxes   15.1       (17.7 ) Income tax expense (benefit)   3.9       (3.8 ) Income (Loss) from continuing operations   11.2       (13.9 ) Income (Loss) from discontinued operations   0.3       (0.6 ) Net income (loss) $ 11.5     $ (14.5 )                 Earnings (Loss) per share – Basic               Earnings (Loss) from continuing operations $ 0.32     $ (0.40 ) Earnings (Loss) from discontinued operations   0.01       (0.02 ) Earnings (Loss) per share – Basic $ 0.33     $ (0.42 )                 Earnings (Loss) per share – Diluted               Earnings (Loss) from continuing operations $ 0.31     $ (0.40 ) Earnings (Loss) from discontinued operations   0.01       (0.02 ) Earnings (Loss) per share – Diluted $ 0.32     $ (0.42 )                 Share Data:               Weighted average shares outstanding – Basic   35.1       34.9   Weighted average shares outstanding – Diluted   35.7       35.0                   AAR CORP. and Subsidiaries Consolidated Balance Sheets (In millions) August 31, 2021   May 31, 2021   (unaudited)     ASSETS       Cash and cash equivalents $ 48.8   $ 51.8 Restricted cash   3.8     8.4 Accounts receivable, net   180.8     166.7 Contract assets   74.6     71.9 Inventories, net   525.8     540.6 Rotable assets and equipment on or available for lease   52.3     50.4 Assets of discontinued operations   19.2     19.5 Other current assets   39.6     27.7 Total current assets   944.9     937.0 Property, plant, and equipment, net   109.1     120.0 Operating lease right-of-use assets, net   73.6     75.8 Goodwill and intangible assets, net   122.1     123.8 Rotable assets supporting long-term programs   178.0     184.3 Other non-current assets   108.0     98.8 Total assets $ 1,535.7   $ 1,539.7             LIABILITIES AND EQUITY           Accounts payable and accrued liabilities $ 304.0   $ 301.4 Liabilities of discontinued operations   20.2     35.4 Total current liabilities   324.2     336.8 Long-term debt   127.6     133.7 Operating lease liabilities   58.0     59.9 Other liabilities and deferred income   37.7     34.9 Total liabilities   547.5     565.3 Equity   988.2     974.4 Total liabilities and equity $ 1,535.7   $ 1,539.7             AAR CORP. and Subsidiaries Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (In millions – unaudited) Three Months Ended August 31,.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaSep 23rd, 2021

ETFs to Bet On as Fed Turns Hawkish, Signals Tapering

The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept the interest rates near zero at 0-0.25% but signaled bond-buying tapering ahead followed by interest rate hikes as early as next year. In the FOMC meeting that concluded on Sep 22, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept the interest rates near zero at 0-0.25% but signaled bond-buying tapering ahead followed by interest rate hikes as early as next year.The central bank is expected to begin scaling back the monthly bond purchases as soon as November and complete the process by mid-2022. This is because it expects the Delta variant of the coronavirus, which has dented economic activity in the recent months, to have a short-lived effect on the recovery. Per the officials, the economy will likely make “substantial further progress” by the end of the year, a threshold needed for the central bank to begin slowing the pace of asset purchases (read: Buy the Dip With These Top-Ranked ETFs).Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that he believes the U.S. economy has already surpassed the central bank's goals for inflation, and said a "reasonably good" September jobs report would indicate that the Fed's employment goals to begin tapering had been satisfied as well. Notably, the central bank has been buying $120 billion per month of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities since the start of the COVID-19 crisis.The policy statement also revealed that nine of 18 Fed policymakers foresee a liftoff in interest rates next year, compared to seven policymakers in June. The median dot also projects three to four total rate hikes by the end of 2023. Through the end of 2024, the median FOMC member sees six to seven total rate hikes.Given this, investors should continue to focus on areas/sectors that will benefit the most from the Fed’s tightening policy. Here, we have detailed four of these and their ETFs below:FinancialsA rising interest rate scenario is highly profitable for the financial sector. This is because the steepening yield curve would bolster profits for banks, insurance companies, and discount brokerage firms. A broad way to play this trend is with Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund XLF, which has a Zacks ETF Rank #1 (Strong Buy) with a Medium risk outlook.This is the most popular financial ETF in the space with AUM of $40 billion and an average daily volume of about 43 million shares. The fund follows the Financial Select Sector Index, holding 65 stocks in its basket. It is heavily concentrated on the top two firms, making up for double-digits share each while other firms hold no more than 7.2% share. In terms of industrial exposure, banks take the top spot at 37.5% while capital markets, insurance, and diversified financial services make up for double-digit exposure each. The fund charges 12 bps in annual fees and is up 27.5% in the year-to-date timeframe (read: 401(k) Balances at All-Time Highs: 6 ETFs to Buy).Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer discretionary stocks also seem good bets. This is because a tight policy is seemingly the result of a pickup in economic growth supported by solid job growth, wage growth and increased lending activity that result in higher spending power. One exciting pick in this space can be Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF VCR, which has a Zacks ETF Rank #1 with a Medium risk outlook (read: ETF Areas to Gain From the Upcoming Holiday Shopping Season).This fund follows the MSCI U.S. Investable Market Consumer Discretionary 25/50 Index and holds 296 stocks in its basket. It has heavy concentration on the top firm – Amazon AMZN – at 23.5% share while the other firms hold no more than 10% of the assets. The product has managed $6.7 billion in its asset base and charges 10 bps in annual fees. In terms of industrial exposure, Internet & direct marketing, retail takes the largest share at 27.6% while automobile manufacturers, restaurants, and home improvement retail round of the next three spots. The ETF trades in average daily volume of 59,000 shares and has gained 15.8% in the same timeframe.TechnologyIn a tight policy era, technology seems one of the safest sectors as most of the companies are sitting on a huge cash pile. The cash reserves will ensure that these companies are not plagued by any financial trouble even in a rising interest rate environment. While there are several ETFs to bet on, First Trust NASDAQ-100-Technology Sector Index Fund QTEC could be an intriguing option. It has a Zacks ETF Rank #1 with a High risk outlook.    This ETF tracks the NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector Index, holding 41 stocks in its basket with almost equal allocation. From an industry look, software and semiconductors dominate the list with 34.9% and 32.7% share, respectively, while production technology equipment and consumer digital services make up for the next two spots. QTEC is a large cap centric fund with AUM of $3.9 billion and average daily volume of around 66,000 shares. It charges 57 bps in annual fees and gained 19.6% so far this year.DollarTightening policy and higher rates would attract more capital to the country from foreign investors, thereby boosting the U.S. dollar against the basket of other currencies. Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund UUP offers exposure to a dollar against a basket of six world currencies. This is done by tracking the Deutsche Bank Long USD Currency Portfolio Index - Excess Return plus the interest income from the fund’s holdings of U.S. Treasury securities. In terms of holdings, UUP allocates nearly 57.6% in euro and 25.5% collectively in the Japanese yen and British pound. The fund has so far managed an asset base of $487.9 million and sees an average daily volume of around 697,000 shares. It charges 76 bps in annual fees and has gained 3.5% so far this year. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank #2 with a Medium risk outlook (read: U.S. Dollar to Gain Ahead? ETFs to Gain/Lose).  More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Free Stock Analysis Report Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF): ETF Research Reports Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (UUP): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR): ETF Research Reports First Trust NASDAQ100Technology Sector ETF (QTEC): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Oil & Gas Stock Roundup Headlined by Chevron & Diamondback

Apart from Chevron (CVX) and Diamondback Energy (FANG) there was news from Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), Helmerich & Payne (HP) and Suncor Energy (SU) during the week. It was a week when oil prices bounced back above $70 and natural gas futures registered their highest settlement since February 2014.On the news front, American biggie Chevron CVX broke down its future shift toward an environmentally friendly direction, while shale specialist Diamondback Energy FANG approved a new buyback plan.Overall, it was another good week for the sector. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures moved up 3.2% to close at $71.97 per barrel and natural gas prices gained 3.4% to reach $5.105 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). Overall, both commodities managed to maintain their forward momentum from the previous three weeks.Coming back to the week ended Sep 17, oil prices rose, underpinned by a report from the Energy Information Administration ("EIA") that showed draws in crude and fuel stockpiles. The commodity was also boosted by the major international forecasters’ encouraging view on oil demand growth next year.Natural gas climbed too, buoyed by the slow restoration of hurricane-affected operations, late-season hot weather and strong LNG export demand.Recap of the Week’s Most-Important Stories1.  At its recent environment-themed presentation titled Energy Transition Spotlight, Chevron said that it will invest 200% more in lower-carbon businesses in the next seven years but stopped short of committing any timeline toward achieving net-zero operations.The U.S. oil major set clear targets to ramp up renewable natural gas output to 40,000 million British thermal units (MMBtu) per day by 2030, while growing hydrogen production to 150,000 tons annually. Besides, the company is rapidly expanding its renewable fuels footprint with daily production capacity estimated to reach 100,000 barrels by the end of this decade, in addition to increasing carbon offsets to 25 million tons per year.As part of this plan, the American energy giant will invest $10 billion in clean energy through 2028, more than triple the $3 billion earmarked earlier. Of the total, $3 billion each will be spent on renewable fuels and carbon capture/storage/offsets, $2 billion on hydrogen, while $2 billion is planned to be used to reduce the emissions intensity of the company’s portfolio. (Key Highlights From Chevron's ESG Investor Day)2.   Shares of Diamondback Energy gained more than 3% on Sep 17, a day after the energy player stated that its plans to distribute 50% of free cash flow to investors were expedited. Beginning fourth quarter of this year, this Permian producer’s business will return free cash flow through its basic dividend and additional shareholder return methods.In order to support this return promise, the Midland, TX-headquartered independent energy firm’s board approved a new share repurchase program worth $2 billion, which was implemented with immediate effect. The move underscores the company’s sound financial position and its commitment to reward its shareholders.A much-improved commodity price scenario and the economic recovery contributed to the balance sheet strength of the energy companies like Diamondback. Benefiting from their robust fundamentals, their cash from operations is now covering capital spending. This provides a sustainable financial framework for these firms to increase cash returns to their shareholders. (Diamondback Shares Gain on $2B Buyback Acceleration)3.  Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) has made a final investment decision to construct an 820,000-tonne-per-year biofuels facility at the Shell Energy and Chemicals Park Rotterdam in the Netherlands. When completed, the plant will be one of the largest in Europe for producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel from trash.The new plant will help the Netherlands and the rest of Europe in meeting the globally mandated carbon reduction goals. It will also assist the Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) Europe-based energy multinational in meeting its objective of becoming a net-zero emissions energy firm by 2050, in line with society's progress toward the Paris Agreement's climate targets.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The biofuels plant in Rotterdam is anticipated to start producing in 2024. Using innovative technology created by Shell, it will manufacture low-carbon fuels such as renewable diesel from waste in the form of used cooking oil, waste animal fat, and other agricultural and manufacturing residual items. (Shell to Build Dutch Biofuels Facility to Cut Emissions)4.   Helmerich & Payne HP recently announced a strategic collaboration with The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (“ADNOC”) and its subsidiary ADNOC Drilling Company wherein ADNOC Drilling will purchase eight FlexRig land rigs from the contract drilling services provider for $86.5 million. Following this buyout, the company will make a $100-million cornerstone investment in ADNOC Drilling's recently announced initial public offering (“IPO”).Earlier, ADNOC expressed its plan to list a 7.5% minority stake in ADNOC Drilling on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange in an IPO, reflecting the continuous development, strength and relevance in the Middle Eastern capital city's financial market. ADNOC, a renowned diversified energy and petrochemicals company, and Helmerich & Payne will remain ADNOC Drilling's dedicated, long-term stockholders.The above agreement will help Helmerich & Payne achieve its goal of deploying capital worldwide, especially in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) area, by boosting its entry into the lucrative and rapidly-rising Abu Dhabi market as a vital platform for further regional expansion. (Helmerich & Payne to Pump $100M Into ADNOC Drilling IPO)5.  Suncor Energy SU recently reached agreements with eight indigenous communities in the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo to buy the entire 15% equity stake in Canada's Northern Courier Pipeline Limited Partnership held by TC Energy TRPThe partnership, which comprises Suncor, three First Nations, and five Métis communities will hold a 15% interest in this pipeline asset worth roughly C$1.3 billion, which will generate long- term, consistent earnings that will aid the communities for decades ahead.Suncor will run the pipeline that connects its Fort Hills oil production in Alberta to its East Tank Farm asset after the acquisition is completed. Canada's premier integrated energy company stated that the collaboration is projected to generate gross revenues of around C$16 million per year for its partners and offer stable income. Subject to usual closing conditions and regulatory clearances, the deal is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2021. (Suncor, Indigenous Partners Buy Canadian Pipeline Stake)Price PerformanceThe following table shows the price movement of some major oil and gas players over the past week and during the last six months.Company    Last Week    Last 6 MonthsXOM              +2.2%                -4.1%CVX               +0.7%               -7.5%COP              +5.7%               +13.6%OXY               +7.8%               -7.4%SLB               +5.7%               -2.6%RIG                -4%                   -11.9%VLO               +3.5%               -12.5%MPC              +3.5%               +8.4%The Energy Select Sector SPDR — a popular way to track energy companies — was up 3.2% last week. The best performer was oil and gas producer Occidental Petroleum OXY whose stock climbed 7.8%.Over the past six months, the sector tracker has inched up 0.6%. Upstream biggie ConocoPhillips (COP) was the major gainer during the period, experiencing a 13.6% price appreciation.What’s Next in the Energy World?As the global oil consumption outlook strengthens amid tightening fundamentals, market participants will be closely tracking the regular releases to watch for signs that could further validate the upward momentum. In this context, the U.S. government’s statistics on oil and natural gas — one of the few solid indicators that come out regularly — will be on energy traders' radar. Data on rig count from the oilfield service firm Baker Hughes, which is a pointer to trends in U.S. crude production, is closely followed too. News related to coronavirus vaccine approval/rollout/distribution will be of utmost importance. Finally, investors will be keeping an eye on the health of China’s economy following the Evergrande crisis. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Chevron Corporation (CVX): Free Stock Analysis Report Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A): Free Stock Analysis Report Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP): Free Stock Analysis Report Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY): Free Stock Analysis Report Suncor Energy Inc. (SU): Free Stock Analysis Report TC Energy Corporation (TRP): Free Stock Analysis Report Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Three Themes Coalescing – Crescat Capital

Crescat Capital’s commentary for the month of September 2021, discussing the three themes coalescing. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Dear Investors: Three Themes Coalescing With unsustainable imbalances in the global economy and financial markets today, we see unprecedented opportunities to grow and protect capital in both the near and long term. Crescat […] Crescat Capital’s commentary for the month of September 2021, discussing the three themes coalescing. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Dear Investors: Three Themes Coalescing With unsustainable imbalances in the global economy and financial markets today, we see unprecedented opportunities to grow and protect capital in both the near and long term. Crescat is focused on investment strategies that offer uncommon value and appreciation potential. We believe that all of Crescat’s strategies offer an incredible entry point today based on the firm’s three core macro themes: China credit collapse Record overvalued US equity market top Flight to safety into deeply undervalued gold, silver, and precious metals miners We have researched and written extensively about these themes over the last several years in our investor letters. In our strong view, these are the three biggest macro imbalances and investing opportunities in the world today. The three themes are coalescing at this very moment before the world’s eyes in a likely financial market collision and Great Rotation. We believe our portfolios will be the beneficiary. Our positioning is contrary to many common investment portfolios in the world today. We think too many are over-weighted in extremely overvalued US growth stocks and FAAMG. Most are unprepared for a China monetary collapse or a US stock market downturn. We think too few are positioned for the inevitable stagflation that our models suggest is ahead. As value investors, we are comfortable accepting a reasonable amount of risk to realize the strong returns that are possible from our macro themes and valuation models. Our investment principles and models give us the confidence that the intrinsic value of our portfolios is significantly greater than the current market price at any given time. The combination of already substantial rising inflation in the US along with a China credit collapse, just as the Fed is attempting to taper, is the catalyst for all three of our themes to begin unfolding now. We are headed for a major shake-up in the world’s financial markets at a time of both historic global debt-to-GDP imbalances and record central bank money printing. A Value Approach Our stance is bold. It is highly analytical, valuation-based, and macro driven. As such we are willing to withstand a moderate amount of volatility as markets undergo a re-pricing to realize the ultimate capital appreciation that is attainable from our views. The confidence in our value-based investment process is what gives us the conviction to withstand higher volatility than the average fund manager. Our investment process uses equity and macro models to ensure that the intrinsic value of our portfolios, through discounted cash flow and relative-value methodologies, is always substantially greater than where the market is pricing them today. It is important that Crescat clients embrace a similar value-oriented and long-term mindset to have the confidence that short-term setbacks in Crescat’s strategies are not a permanent loss of capital. The market price of Crescat’s activist long precious metals holdings has fallen in August and September month to date, affecting the long side of all the firm’s strategies. We think this is a mere short-term pullback that presents an incredible buying opportunity. We have the utmost confidence that these positions can deliver extraordinary long-term gains over the next three to five years based on our valuation approach. We have an extensive model to value these holdings based on conservative assumptions. We believe our portfolio of 90+ activist precious metals companies is worth 11 times where the market is valuing them today. That is at the current gold price. They are worth even more than that in a significantly rising new gold and silver bull market that our macro models are forecasting. Pullbacks are a necessary part of the path to delivering substantial long-term returns that more than compensate for the risk. It is the macro imbalances that allow us to enter long positions cheaply and short positions dearly to ultimately deliver outsized appreciation. As value investors, we believe short-term setbacks in Crescat’s strategies offer great opportunities for both new and existing investors to deploy capital. We are firmly positioned in a diversified deep-value portfolio of the most viable new gold and silver deposits on the planet. We own these companies early in what is likely to be a long-term industry cycle for precious metals mining after a decade long bear market. Our companies hold over 300 million target gold equivalent ounces. While the world has largely shunned gold mining stocks since their last major bull market that ended in 2011, in the past year and a half, we have been busy doing private placements to fund the world’s most viable new exploration projects, thereby acquiring gold and silver for literally pennies on the dollar ahead of what we believe will be a new M&A cycle for the mining industry. We very strongly believe that the recent selloff in precious metals, due to Fed taper concerns, is way overdone and that our strategies are poised for a major turn back up in the near term. Our gold and silver holdings have improved over the last two days, and hopefully, it is the turn already. Buy the Dip in Precious Metals The pullback in Crescat’s performance over the past two months, including September month to date, has been almost entirely attributable to our long precious metals positions across all strategies. It is important to understand that these positions were also big winners for us in the prior year through July 2021. The Crescat Precious Metals Fund, our newest fund that is solely focused on this theme, delivered a 235% net return through July in a moderately down gold and silver market. That was the first 12-month period of this fund. Imagine what we should be able to do in a bull market for precious metals. Our precious metals stocks are ultra-deep value positions with incredible appreciation potential still ahead thanks to the expertise of Quinton Hennigh, PhD, Crescat’s Geologic and Technical Director, and his 30+ years of experience in the gold mining exploration industry. The last two months’ sell-off in gold and silver should mark the recent bottom or very close to it. March 2020 was what we believe was the primary bottom of what was a 10-year bear market for junior gold mining stocks. The majors have left exploration to the juniors, so these are the companies that control the world’s next big high-grade gold deposits after a decade of underinvestment in exploration and development. The fact that gold along with our mining portfolios have been catching a safe-haven bid in the market in the last two days as the China Evergrande collapse has caught the world’s attention is phenomenal! This is exactly how a safe-haven currency and the best new gold and silver deposits on the planet should act as a renewed, sober financial order of the world that should emerge as China and the US stock market go into a structural downturn if not outright meltdown. China’s "Mises Moment" The massive US$300 billion China Evergrande collapse feeds into the much bigger $52 trillion Chinese banking system. The latter in our analysis is a phony financial accounting that we can only liken to the largest Ponzi scheme in financial world history. Wall Street came out in force today trying to calm its clients by saying that Evergrande is not China’s Lehman moment. We agree, it is not. It is much bigger than that. The scale of China’s credit bubble is unimaginable. It is 4.5 times the banking bubble in the US ahead of the Global Financial Crisis in absolute as well as relative to GDP terms! US banks were only a US$11 trillion asset bubble at the time when the US GDP was at about the same level as China today. It is not even a Minsky moment. We think China is about to face what we would call a “Mises moment”. China’s unsustainable world-record credit expansion has simply gone on far too long already to where they have only one alternative to reconcile it. All paths lead to a massive currency devaluation. Ludwig von Mises, one of the venerated founders of the Austrian economics school, describes it like this: “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” We think most of the financial world is not prepared at all for a China currency collapse. In our global macro fund, we are positioned for a substantial China yuan devaluation and possible de-pegging of the Hong Kong dollar. The latter is an extremely cheap put option. The yuan collapse is inevitable in our view. We have been writing about it for years and believe it is highly prudent to be positioned now. We hold an asymmetric trade with capped downside and large uncapped upside where we are long the dollar and short China’s two primary currencies, the yuan and Hong Kong dollar, through USDCNH and USDHKD call options with tier-1 US bank counterparties. US Stock Market Top In our analysis, China’s financial woes will absolutely be contagious with the US and the world. It is already happening. There is a strong chance that the US equity market has already topped out as of Sep 2 on both the S&P 500 large cap index and the Wilshire 5000 total market index. This has been arguably the most speculative US stock market in history with the highest valuation multiples to underlying fundamentals. In our strong view, there is much downside ahead for broad US stocks. We are determined to capitalize on the equity downturn with overvalued US short positions based on our equity models in our global macro and long/short funds. US stock and credit market’s historic valuations are compliments of rampant speculation underwritten by the Federal Reserve. These asset bubbles are ripe for bursting. The catalyst is the dual combination of rising inflation in the US and a credit crisis in China. We think most investment managers, including hedge funds, are afraid to short stocks and will be caught wrongfooted. Our macro and equity models give us the conviction to be short today. Our firm has an excellent track record of protecting capital during market downturns via our short positions. See our performance reports which show Crescat’s negative and low “downside capture ratio” versus the market in our global macro and long/short hedge funds respectively compared to the S&P 500 and other hedge funds over the long history of these two strategies. Crescat Global Macro’s negative downside capture ratio since inception means that on average it has made money historically when both the market and the hedge fund benchmark has been down. In fact, both funds were up substantially in March 2020, the month of the Covid crash. Gold Wins Whether Safe-Haven Flight or Inflation Hedge On China’s woes, gold should be getting the monetary metal safe-haven bid even though ultimately it is the inflation protection buying on the back of a fiat currency war that makes gold the most attractive to us. When the Fed acts with new measures to counter the strong dollar vs. yuan that would otherwise crimp the US economy, that is when precious metals should go ballistic. We need to be positioned for all of that now, and we are. The Fed is expected to announce the taper tomorrow. A fully committed taper announcement would likely only further catalyze China’s credit collapse and the US equity downturn in our opinion. That is a possibility, but we think a soft taper announcement with a lot of hedging language given China and the potential contagion effects is a more likely event. It still should not stop the US equity market downturn, and it will do nothing to help China. If it is a hard taper, it is just game-on even more so for our equity short positions and China yuan puts. Regarding precious metals, the odds are that gold has already fully priced in the taper based on its pullback over the last two months. If the Fed gives us the “soft taper”, it should allow gold to catch a huge bid and be off to the races. Current Inflation Spike Already Rivals Stagflationary 1973 and 1980 The US Consumer Price Index has risen from 0.3% annualized to 5.3% over just the last 15 months. The last two times we saw this big of a rise over this short of a time were in 1973 and 1980, the two most notorious episodes of stagflation and rising gold prices in US history. Just like in the 1970s, policy makers are trying to tell us not to worry because inflation is “transitory”. But just as then, there is a host of “non-transitory” drivers that include an incipient wage-price spiral, the lag-effect of rents to already substantially higher housing prices, global supply chain shocks from Western trade disintegration with China, and highly probable ongoing deficit spending and debt monetization in the US as far as the eye can see. The big difference between today and the 1970s stagflation is that the Fed has not done anything to fight rising inflationary pressures but instead has done everything to aid and abet them. For instance, from 1972 to 1973, the Fed had already raised its funds rate from 3.5% to 10.8%. And, from 1976 to 1980, it raised the rate from 4.7% to 17.6%. In contrast today, the Fed has kept the funds rate at 0% for the last 16 months and engaged in $4.3 trillion of quantitative easing over the last 18 months monetizing 88% of $4.9 trillion in new debt taken on by the US Treasury over the same time. Fed officials must be looking at this data and internally freaking out. That is why they are probably seriously considering tapering. Stagflation When monetary policy becomes truly extreme, like it was when the US abandoned the gold standard, for instance, we can get both inflation and a stock market crash at the same time. 1973-74 was the prime example. Gold stocks went up 5x in just two years while the S&P 500 was down 50%. At the same time, the popular but overvalued Nifty Fifty large cap growth stocks went down substantially more. Only those alive during the 1970s with money invested in the stock market truly know how shocking and substantial such a crisis can be. It could have been devasting or glorious depending on how one was invested. Gold Launches as Tech Busts Even in less extreme monetary policy situations, gold stocks can go up while widely-held overvalued equities collapse. Late 2000 through 2002 was a perfect example. Then large cap growth and tech stocks were being decimated at the same time as gold stocks began what would ultimately become a ten-year bull market albeit with a significant selloff in late 2008. These two examples are the types of markets for both gold and broad US stocks that we envision over the next two years. Gold Stocks In The Great Depression The Great Depression is yet another example of how gold and gold stocks can perform versus stocks at large in the most serious of financial times. Homestake Mining was the largest precious metals miner of the time. Fed Policy Error Fed watchers are rightly concerned about a forthcoming policy error, but the truth is that the accumulation of global economic and market imbalances and inflationary pressures after many years of taking the path of least resistance with quantitative easing and low interest rate policy has already been the gigantic policy mistake. These misjudgments are not isolated to domestic affairs but have aided and abetted massive credit bubbles in other countries too, particularly China. We believe it is only a matter of time before investors begin stampeding out of S&P 500 index funds and FAAMG stocks and into tangible assets. We think this is the time to get ahead of the curve. As Warren Buffett’s mentor, the legendary Ben Graham, said: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine that requires only money, not intelligence or emotional stability, but in the long run it’s a weighing machine.” We think a little bit of intelligence and a lot of emotional stability could go a long way right now in selling hyper-overvalued stocks at large and buying deeply undervalued gold stocks. We strongly believe the opportunity to put money to work on the recent pullback in Crescat’s strategies is phenomenal today. Performance Download PDF Version Sincerely, Kevin C. Smith, CFA Member & Chief Investment Officer Tavi Costa Member & Portfolio Manager For more information including how to invest, please contact: Marek Iwahashi Client Service Associate miwahashi@crescat.net 303-271-9997 Cassie Fischer Client Service Associate cfischer@crescat.net (303) 350-4000 Linda Carleu Smith, CPA Member & COO lsmith@crescat.net (303) 228-7371 © 2021 Crescat Capital LLC Updated on Sep 22, 2021, 11:28 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 23rd, 2021

How to insert a text box or custom shape in Google Docs

You can add text boxes and shapes to your Google Docs if you want to make a certain section stand out. Text boxes and shapes are a method for making content stand out in your Google Doc. dennizn / Shutterstock.com You can insert a text box or custom shape in Google Docs to help information stand out. A text box or shape can be drawn into Google Docs from the Insert menu. You can edit shapes or text boxes at any time by clicking directly on them. Visit Insider's Tech Reference library for more stories. While some prefer Microsoft Word, Google Docs is a free alternative loaded with features, including the ability to collaborate in real-time, and has robust formatting options.For example, using a text box or shape in Google Docs can allow you to have certain information stand out amongst other document contents.Here's how to insert a text box or custom shapes in Google Docs. Insert a text box1. Click Insert.2. Click Drawing and then New. The drawing tool is found under the "Insert" dropdown from the Google Doc toolbar. Kyle Wilson 3. Click on the Text box icon. The Text box option is an icon that looks like a capital "T" with a box around it. Kyle Wilson 4. Click and drag the mouse to shape the box to the size that you want, then release the mouse.5. Input what you want to appear in the text box and then hit Save and close. You can then move the text box and place it wherever you like by clicking and dragging it into position. You can click and drag any of the small blue squares along the border of the text box to change its size. Kyle Wilson Quick tip: You can change the font size and formatting of the text by highlighting it, clicking the three horizontal dots below the Save and close button, and selecting your desired option.Add shapes 1. Click Insert.2. Click Drawing.3. Click New.4. Click on the Shapes icon, which is to the immediate left of the Text box button. The Shape option is an icon that looks like circle half-covering a square. Kyle Wilson 5. Click on Shapes in the dropdown that appears. From here, you can select predetermined shapes out of the options available and customize it to your liking. The options in the Arrows, Call outs, and Equation categories can be used the same as regular shapes. Kyle Wilson 6. When you are done, click Save and close. You can then move the shape around the document by clicking and dragging and place it wherever you want.Customize your text box or shape 1. Click on your shape and select Edit in the contextual menu that appears. The contextual menu is the box of tools that appears when you highlight a non-text element in your Google Doc. Kyle Wilson 2. Click again on your shape. This will bring up a series of points that you can click and drag with your mouse to change different aspects of the shape, the box size, or the text within it. You can resize, reshape, and rotate shapes when editing them. Kyle Wilson For example, the blue points allow you to resize and shape your shape whereas the orange ones allow for fine customization, such as making a smiley face frown or removing corners of a shape, and are fewer in number.Circular blue points that appear above your shape or text box allow you to rotate it. Click and hold the point and then rotate it left or right. Once it is rotated as desired, release the mouse. Don't worry if you don't get it right the first time, you can always edit the rotation further if needed.How to search for and find your Google Docs files on desktop or mobileHow to check the word count on Google Docs, and keep the word count on your screenHow much free Google Drive storage you get - and tips to free up more storage spaceHow to integrate Google Drive with Microsoft Office so you can easily share files and collaborate across platformsRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytSep 22nd, 2021

Cashing In On a Cleaner Future

Tremendous amounts of capital are moving into renewable energy projects, but investors can still get in near the "ground floor of green". Ben Rains will show you how to profit from the clean energy revolution. The clean energy movement has been slowly building for decades, and the U.S. appears to finally be on the cusp of a paradigm shift. A mixture of public and private investment is ramping up to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. Various bills floating around Washington plan to dedicate billions of dollars to the cause.Greener energy is, of course, far from black and white. Beltway partisanship could certainly slow or curb any serious government spending on clean energy initiatives.Luckily, decades of microscopic progress, coupled with a more recent global push to go greener, means clean energy doesn’t need a trillion-dollar package to thrive. In fact, the U.S. is already much further along the green road than many might assume.The Biden administration set an ambitious goal to “generate clean, American-made electricity to achieve a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035.” Many analysts and experts understand the goal is somewhat symbolic and is likely an attempt to spur faster adoption of cleaner energy.But the fact that a U.S. president can even float this lofty clean energy goal highlights the major progress already made. It also gives us a peek into the vast amounts of money that could soon flow into the clean, green, and renewable economic ecosystem.And despite the progress, investors still have a chance to get in near the ground floor of green.Continued . . .------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------5 Infrastructure Stocks with Breakout Profit PotentialWith massive amounts of federal spending potentially on the way soon, a select number of infrastructure stocks are poised for a historic surge. Some stocks have doubled... tripled... even 6X’d the S&P – and the money hasn’t even started flowing yet.Zacks has just updated How to Profit from Trillions in Spending for Infrastructure, an urgent report to help investors take full advantage of this rare opportunity.Infrastructure stocks have recently soared as much as +81%... +150%... even +248%.¹ The 5 stocks in this report could rival those returns. Don't delay: this Special Report is only available until Sunday, September 26.See 5 Top Infrastructure Stocks Now >>------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Rather Green Already Renewable energy is far from modern, with various forms of hydropower dating back thousands of years. The first U.S. alternating current hydropower plant began delivering power in Redlands, California in 1893.Wind then began to pop up in the early 1990s, though it remained largely insignificant until the mid-2000s. Solar is the latest bloomer in the current crop of clean energy sources and it did not really arrive until the mid-2010s.Overall, renewables accounted for 20% of the total U.S. electricity generation mix last year, to put it right on par with nuclear energy and just inching ahead of coal. This figure alone might be rather shocking to many. Meanwhile, natural gas led the charge at 40%.Renewables account for one-fifth of total U.S. electricity generation and the EIA projects renewable’s share of the electricity generation mix will double by 2050, from 20% last year to 42%. The report predicts renewables will surpass natural gas over this stretch.More broadly, the International Energy Agency expects renewables will provide 80% of the growth in global electricity demand through 2030. The IEA projected global coal demand won’t ever return to its 2014 peak, as wealthy nations turn to cleaner alternatives.The Solar StoryClean and green energy is poised to grow its share of power generation in the U.S. and beyond in both the near term and for decades to come. That said, many stocks within the broader green space already experienced rather hyperbolic runs. Many of these stocks and broad-industry tracking ETFs soared off the coronavirus lows and then skyrocketed after the November election, only to tumble somewhat quickly back to earth.The logic followed that the new Biden administration would quickly pass trillion-dollar green-focused legislation and kick clean energy into high gear. Clearly this didn’t happen, and the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill the Senate passed in August faces, as of this writing, some substantial hurdles.More importantly, not all companies are good investments. Many of the vogue ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) funds’ top holdings are mega-cap tech stocks. There are, of course, some names who boast strong businesses within key aspects of the nascent market.The simple numbers point to growth potential in wind and solar, with solar remaining the least utilized green energy source. In 2020, solar accounted for only 2.3% of total U.S. electricity generation, while hydropower made up 7.3% and wind grabbed 8.4%. Solar’s runway offers the most potential, but the right technology is needed in order to harness and store the power, especially in places where it’s not always sunny.Solar energy’s total share of the electricity market was less than 1% above biomass in 2020 and Wall Street isn’t trying to discover ways to pour money into the oldest form of energy. Solar technology remains largely in its infancy, which is why it’s an attractive space.Last year, solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity additions in the U.S. jumped 25% overall, with utility-scale up nearly 29% and small-scale up 19%. About 90% of solar panel shipments were imported, mostly from countries in Asia.The EIA projects solar will pick up the slack and account for 80% of the increase in generation through 2050.Where’s the Money... Projections are rarely precise, especially when looking decades out, yet it seems rather safe to say the future of energy consumption will be a lot greener. Wall Street is currently honing in on the best ways to profit from the new era of energy.The most basic investment pockets for clean energy at the moment are solar, wind, and ancillary segments. Even though solar panels themselves are the catch-all phrase and growing in popularity with businesses, governments, and homeowners, they are highly competitive and rather low-margin.Instead, Wall Street has gravitated to a slightly higher-tech and higher-margin segment of solar that converts the DC power solar photovoltaic panels produced into the AC power used in our homes and businesses. Some of the inverter stocks have skyrocketed over the last five years and have held up in 2021 even as many other companies faded following the epic rise to start the year.Inverters are essential to the solar energy ecosystem and a few of the standout names hold numerous patents on their various technologies. These firms have ample runway as solar energy grows in popularity, with many envisioning a smart-home future where solar panels power homes, electric cars (EV), and even allow consumers to sell electricity back to the grid.Companies are also currently working to expand power storage, EV charging, batteries, grid services solutions, and more. Firms able to successfully master the energy storage capabilities and capacity needed to support a much greener future will be stars.A Possible Sleeping Giant  Next-generation nuclear power could be a hidden investment gem in the coming decades.The U.S. is currently the world’s largest producer of nuclear power and it surpassed coal in annual electricity generation in the U.S. for the first time ever last year. In fact, nuclear energy provided 52% of America’s carbon-free electricity in 2020, making it the largest domestic source of clean energy, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.Yet, nuclear’s share of U.S. electrical generation has remained remarkably stagnant during the last several decades, having supplied around 20% of the nation’s electricity every year since 1990.The U.S. could be ready to invest in next-generation reactors, as consistent forms of non-fossil fuel power are needed to go along with wind, solar, and hydro. The recent craziness with uranium prices might be an early comeback signal.Profiting from the Clean Energy Revolution The push to make our nation greener is set to pump tremendous amounts of capital into renewable energy projects.If the bipartisan infrastructure bill is approved, it will be a powerful tailwind pushing the space forward. As it currently stands, the deal includes the largest investment in clean energy transmission in American history.But this is just one industry preparing for a big shift. The country needs upgraded infrastructure virtually across the board. The infrastructure bill has highlighted the need, and private investment is beginning to ramp up in response.A handful of stocks could generate significant profits in the weeks and months ahead, and I've just updated a special report to help you capitalize on them.How to Profit from Trillions in Spending for Infrastructure provides my top 5 recommendations for targeting significant gains, including:• A fast-growing clean energy firm that’s made a string of acquisitions across several states and Canada...• A powerful transportation company whose stock price has climbed 2X faster than its industry...• An iconic brand with a new CEO, a new focus on technology, and earnings that are projected to skyrocket 300%...• Plus 2 more stocks that could hand you substantial gains as America upgrades its infrastructure from coast to coast. Infrastructure stocks have already climbed as high as +249% in the past year, and the stocks in this report could rival those gains over time.Don’t delay. This Special Report is only available until Sunday, September 26.Click here to claim your copy of How to Profit from Trillions in Spending for Infrastructure >>Good Investing,Ben RainsStock Strategist¹ The results listed above are not (or may not be) representative of the performance of all selections made by Zacks Investment Research's newsletter editors and may represent the partial close of a position.  Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 22nd, 2021