Lovers Of Canned Cranberries Beware: Expect Thanksgiving Shortages 

Lovers Of Canned Cranberries Beware: Expect Thanksgiving Shortages .....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 24th, 2021

"The Fire Is Hot": Why Morgan Stanley Is Bracing For A Collapse In The US Consumer Early Next Year

"The Fire Is Hot": Why Morgan Stanley Is Bracing For A Collapse In The US Consumer Early Next Year By Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley Trick or Treat, or Both? Over the past few weeks, I have been highlighting the increasing probability of a colder winter but a later start than previously expected. In other words, our 'fire and ice' narrative remains intact, but timing of ice has been pushed out (see ""Our Fire And Ice Narrative Remains Intact": Why Wall Street's Most Bearish Analyst Simply Refuses To Capitulate"). Having said that, with inflation running hot in both consumer and corporate channels, the Fed is expected to formally announce its tapering schedule at this week's meeting, with perhaps a more hawkish tone to convince markets that it isn’t falling too far behind the curve. So, the fire segment (higher rates driven by a less accommodative Fed spurring multiple compression) is clearly under way and has been a focus for investors since the Fed started prepping the markets at Jackson Hole. With rising inflation now getting so much attention from both investors and the Fed, we shift our focus to the ice segment – i.e., the ongoing macro growth slowdown – and when we can expect it to bottom and reverse course. As regular readers know, we have been expecting a material slowdown in both economic and earnings growth amid a mid-cycle transition. The good news is that so does consensus, with 3Q economic growth forecasts having come down sharply before last week's disappointing outcome. While its estimates of 4Q GDP have also declined, the consensus expects growth to reaccelerate sharply from here. Most have blamed the Delta variant, China's crackdown on real estate or supply shortages for the economic disappointment in 3Q, with the assumption that all three will get better as we move into year-end and 2022. Needless to say, we’re not as sure about that assumption, mainly because we think the more important driver of the slowdown has been a mid-cycle transition from an extreme post-recession peak, an adjustment that is not yet finished. In our view, it would be intellectually inconsistent to think that the mid-cycle transition slowdown won't be worse than normal, given the greater-than-normal amplitude of this entire economic cycle so far. We can’t help but recall our position over a year ago, when we argued for much faster earnings growth than the consensus. We argued then that the record fiscal stimulus would effectively serve as a government subsidy for corporations to over-earn. Today, we find ourselves on the direct opposite side of consensus again, but for the same reasons. Since we believe consensus failed to see that logic last year, it seems plausible it could now be missing the corollary. In short, we think the earnings growth slowdown will be worse and last longer than expected as the payback in demand arrives early next year with a sharp year-over-year decline in personal disposable income. While many have argued that the large increase in personal savings will keep consumption well above trend, it looks to us as if personal savings have already been depleted to pre-COVID-19 levels. Granted, the run-up in stock, real estate and crypto asset prices does provide an additional buffer to savings, but much of that wealth is concentrated in the upper quartile of the population. At the lower end of the income spectrum, consumer confidence has fallen sharply the past few months and it’s not just due to the Delta variant. Instead, surveys suggest that many lower-income consumers are worried about their finances again with inflation increasing at double-digit rates in necessities like food, energy, shelter and healthcare – i.e, the fire is hot. Bottom line, the fundamental picture for stocks is deteriorating as the Fed starts to tighten monetary policy and earnings growth slows further into next year, turning outright negative for some companies. However, asset prices are continuing to rise as retail investors keep plowing excess cash into these same investments. Meanwhile, with strong seasonal trends and pressure to perform high at this time of year, many institutional investors we speak with are staying fully invested for these technical reasons. If our analysis is correct, we think that this bullish trend can continue into Thanksgiving, but not much longer. Enjoy the treat for now, but beware the trick, and manage your risk accordingly. Tyler Durden Sun, 10/31/2021 - 15:10.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytOct 31st, 2021

Largest Candy Corn Producer Hit With Ransomware Attack Before Halloween

Largest Candy Corn Producer Hit With Ransomware Attack Before Halloween Candy corn lovers, beware. Candy manufacturer Ferrara Candy was hit with a ransomware attack earlier this month. The company is responsible for 85% of all candy corn production in the US.  Gizmodo first reported the ransomware attack to have occurred on Oct. 9. Ferrara told the online tech publication that the attack "encrypted some of our systems," and they were working with law enforcement: "Upon discovery, we immediately responded to secure all systems and commence an investigation into the nature and scope of this incident. Ferrara is cooperating with law enforcement and our technical team is working closely with third-party specialists to fully restore impacted systems as expeditiously and as safely as possible." The Chicago-based confectionery manufacturer is currently operating at limited capacity but is hoping to fill all orders.  "We have resumed production in select manufacturing facilities, and we are shipping from all of our distribution centers across the country, near to capacity. We are also now working to process all orders in our queue," Ferrara said. "We want to assure consumers that Ferrara's Halloween products are on shelves at retailers across the country ahead of the holiday." Ransomware attacks are surging this year, and many companies and even municipalities are paying the price to unlock their networks by meeting hackers' demands. The most significant hack was the Colonial Pipeline by DarkSide, which led to fuel shortages across the Southern US. The ransomware attack was eventually resolved but came at a devastating cost to the company and the broader economy.  With ten days until Halloween, Ferrara better increase its candy corn output, or there could be shortages of the pentagonal pyramid-shaped candy that tastes like honey, sugar, butter, and vanilla. Tyler Durden Fri, 10/22/2021 - 18:40.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytOct 22nd, 2021

"People Are Hoarding" - Supermarkets Are The Next Supply Chain Crunch As Food Shortages Persist

"People Are Hoarding" - Supermarkets Are The Next Supply Chain Crunch As Food Shortages Persist It's been 19 months since the virus pandemic began, and supply chain disruptions continue, making it more difficult for customers to find their favorite item at supermarkets nationwide. Simultaneously, the psychology of empty store shelves and President Biden's inability to normalize supply chains forced some people to panic hoard this fall as uncertainty about food supplies mount. Chris Jones, Senior Vice President of Government Affairs & Counsel of the National Grocers Association, told Today, "shopping early for the holidays is a wise strategy, especially under current conditions."   "There's plenty of food in the supply chain, but certain items may be harder to get at certain times due to a nationwide shortage of labor impacting manufacturers, shippers and retailers. Additionally, lack of enforcement of antitrust laws in the grocery marketplace have allowed dominant retailers to secure more favorable terms and ample supplies of high-demand goods while leaving many smaller retailers with limited selections or, in some cases, bare shelves," Jones said.  In a separate report, USA Today listed items that customers are having trouble finding at grocery stores.  Ben & Jerry flavors This frozen treat is usually the perfect dessert, but in an email on Sept. 14, Ben & Jerry's parent company, Unilever, cited labor shortages as the reason for reducing the amount of flavors produced. The company said it will focus on producing its most popular flavors. Phish Food lovers, you have nothing to worry about. Carbonated drinks Fertilizer plants, which lead to the production of carbon dioxide, had to reduce their output because of rising costs, causing shortages in food and other products, Per Hong, senior partner at consulting firm Kearney, told CNBC. "We almost certainly will be faced with a global shortage of CO2 that is used widely. CO2 is used extensively in the food value chain from inside packaged food to keep it fresher longer, for dry ice to keep frozen food cold during delivery, to giving carbonated beverages their bubbles," he said.  Chicken People have substituted fast food for home-cooked comfort meals, causing chicken to become scarce. In May, suppliers announced a shortage of chicken, which limited some restaurants' menu items and increased the price in stores.  Coffee Brazil is a supplier of most of the world's coffee, but the country has been experiencing a drought that slowed production and transportation of coffee beans. Diapers Households with small children should be aware that diaper prices have increased because of increases in prices of raw materials, shipping delays and container shortages, according to Business Insider. Diaper manufacturers Proctor & Gamble (Pampers and Luvs) and Kimberly-Clark (Huggies) announced price increases in early April. Fish sticks A customs dispute at the U.S.-Canada border has kept the Alaska pollock, which is used for fish sticks and sandwiches, stored across the border. Cross-border violations have halted transportation of the fish and may cause permanent seafood supply chain problems. Frozen meals Rodney Holcomb, food economist at Oklahoma State University, told ABC27 News that concerns over the delta coronavirus variant have some customers buying more than usual, as Americans saw at the beginning of the pandemic, in case there is another lockdown.  Heinz ketchup packets With restrictions on indoor dining, most people switched to pickup, takeout and delivery orders, limiting the supply of individual ketchup packets. Kraft Heinz confirmed to USA TODAY in early April that it was working to increase supplies, such as adding manufacturing lines that would increase production by about 25% for a total of more than 12 billion packets a year. Marie Callender's pot pies The holidays call for comfort foods – even if you aren't the one making it. But expect shortages of Marie Callender's 10-ounce and 15-ounce pot pies. According to parent company Conagra, it would be allocating shipments through Nov. 29 after it "encountered packing material challenges from our tray and carton supplier resulting in a production interruption," CNN Business reports. McCormick Gourmet spices With the holidays around the corner, meals being prepared across the nation may be missing a very important ingredient: seasonings. McCormick Gourmet spices are short of packaging supplies due to pandemic-related shutdowns. Lori Robinson, a spokesperson for McCormick, told CNN Business, "Gourmet is the only product line impacted by this packaging shortage" but can be substituted with their regular spices.  Rice Krispie Treats This lunchbox treat's production has been "below service expectations," as stated in an email sent to suppliers. The shortage persists as Kellogg's workers remain on strike, even though production lines have restarted as replacement workers were brought in. Sour Patch Kids In an Oct. 1 email to a grocery distributor, parent company Mondelez says there is "limited availability" on some of their items such as Sour Patch Kids, Swedish Fish candy and Toblerone chocolate "due to supply chain constraints."  Toilet paper This is something that isn't new to the pandemic shortage list, but the industry has yet to keep up with the demand. The shortage stems from lumber's raw material, wood pulp, which is used to make toilet paper. Fox Business reports only 60% of orders are being shipped out. Some retailers, such as Costco, have reinstated purchasing limits.  Persistent disruptions in supply chains continue to upended daily life as supplies of essential goods at grocery stores continue to dwindle.  "I never imagined that we'd be here in October 2021 talking about supply-chain problems, but it's a reality," Vivek Sankaran, CEO of supermarket chain Albertsons Cos., told Bloomberg. "Any given day, you're going to have something missing in our stores, and it's across categories." Food suppliers are stocking up on extra supplies to mitigate panic hoarding. Saffron Road, a producer of frozen meals, is increasing inventory to about four months instead of two months.  "People are hoarding," said CEO and founder Adnan Durrani. "What I think you'll see over the next six months, all prices will go higher." Food producers are also complaining about the challenges in the supply chain continuing and will unlikely wane by the end of this year, suggesting these issues will continue into early 2022. Last week, one of the top trending topics on Twitter was the hashtag #EmptyShelvesJoe, referring to Biden's inability to normalize supply chains that have resulted in empty store shelves at supermarkets.  America is becoming more and more like a third-world nation as shortages and soaring food inflation crush the working poor.  Tyler Durden Wed, 10/20/2021 - 10:20.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 20th, 2021

Shellenberger: The Real Threat To Banks Isn"t From Climate Change, It"s From Bankers

Shellenberger: The Real Threat To Banks Isn't From Climate Change, It's From Bankers Authored by Michael Shellenberger via substack, Over the last two years, some of the world’s most powerful and influential bankers and investors have argued that climate change poses a grave threat to financial markets and that nations must switch urgently from using fossil fuels to using renewables. In 2019, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco warned that climate change could cause banks to stop lending, towns to lose tax revenue, and home values to decline. Last year, 36 pension fund managers representing $1 trillion in assets said climate change “poses a systemic threat to financial markets and the real economy.” And upon taking office, President Joe Biden warned government agencies that climate change disasters threatened retirement funds, home prices, and the very stability of the financial system. But a major new staff report from the New York Federal Reserve Bank throws cold water on the over-heated rhetoric coming from activist investors, bankers, and politicians. “How Bad Are Weather Disasters for Banks?” asks the title of the report by three economists. “Not very,” they answer in the first sentence of the abstract. The reason is because “weather disasters over the last quarter century had insignificant or small effects on U.S. banks’ performance.” The study looked at FEMA-level disasters between 1995 and 2018, at county-level property damage estimates, and the impact on banking revenue. The New York Fed’s authors only looked at how banks have dealt with disasters in the past, and what they wrote isn’t likely to be the final word on the matter. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and most other scientific bodies predict that many weather events, including hurricanes and floods, which cause the greatest financial damage, are likely to become more extreme in the future, due to climate change. And in February, The New York Times quoted one of six United States Federal Reserve governors saying, “Financial institutions that do not put in place frameworks to measure, monitor and manage climate-related risks could face outsized losses on climate-sensitive assets caused by environmental shifts.” But the Fed economists looked separately at the most extreme 10 percent of all disasters and found that banks impacted not only didn’t suffer, “their income increases significantly with exposure,” and that the improved financial performance of banks hit by disasters wasn’t explained by increased federal disaster (FEMA) aid. In other words, disasters are actually good for banks, since they increase demand for loans. The larger a bank’s exposure to natural disasters, the larger its profits. Happily, the profits made by banks are trivial compared to rising societal resilience to disasters, which can be seen by the fact that the share of GDP spent on natural disasters has actually declined over the last 30 years. While scientists expect hurricanes to become five percent more extreme they also expect them to become 25 percent less frequent, and now, new data show global carbon emissions actually declined over the last decade, and thus there is no longer any serious risk of a significant rise in global temperatures. Banking Against Growth The real risk to banks and the global economy comes from climate policy, not climate change, particularly efforts to make energy more expensive and less reliable through the greater use of renewables, new taxes, and new regulations. “For policymakers,” warned the three economists writing for the New York Fed, “our findings suggest that potential transition risks from climate change warrant more attention than physical disaster risks.” While they may seem like outliers, they are far from alone in expressing their concern. The second half of the quote by the Fed governor about climate change, which was hyped by The New York Times, warned that banks “could face outsized losses” from the “transition to a low-carbon economy.” (My emphasis.) And, now concern is growing among members of Congress about the dangers of over-relying on weather-dependent energy, with some members citing the New York Fed’s report after The Wall Street Journal editorialized about it last week . Proof of the threat to the economy from climate policy is the worst global energy crisis in 50 years. Shareholder activists played a significant role in creating it, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg, and The Financial Times, by reducing investment in oil and gas production, and causing nations to over-invest in unreliable solar and wind energies, which has driven up energy prices, and contributed significantly to inflation. And yet a crucial Biden Administration nominee for bank regulation has openly said she would like to bankrupt firms that produce oil and gas, the two fuels whose scarcity is causing the global energy crisis. Progressive academic, Saule Omarova, nominated by Biden, said recently that “we want [oil and gas firms] to go bankrupt” and that “the way we basically get rid of these carbon financiers is we starve them of their source of capital. Biden nominee Saule Omarova said she wants to bankrupt energy companies Omarova is not an outlier. The Biden Administration’s Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) is advocating 30 new climate regulations that should be imposed on banking. Many analysts believe the US Securities and Exchange Commission will require new regulations. The goal is to radically alter how America’s banks lend money, the energy sector, and the economy as a whole. And former Bank of England chief, Mark Carney, co-chair of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, has organized $130 trillion in investment and said recently that his investors should expect to make higher, not lower, returns than the market. How? In the exact same way Omarova predicted: by bankrupting some companies, and financing other ones, through government regulations and subsidies. Former Bank of England head Mark Carney Carney created the Glasgow Financial Alliance, or GFANZ, with Michael Bloomberg, and they did so under the official seal of the United Nations. “Carney said the alliance will put global finance on a trajectory that ultimately leaves high-carbon assets facing a much bleaker future,” wrote a reporter with Bloomberg. “He also said investors in such products will see the value of their holdings sink.” What’s going on, exactly? How is it that some of the world’s most powerful bankers, and the politicians they finance, came to support policies that threaten the stability of electrical grids, energy supplies, and thus the global economy itself? The Unseen Order Three of the largest donors to climate change causes are billionaire financial titans Michael Bloomberg, George Soros, and Tom Steyer, all of whom have significant investments in both renewables and fossil fuels. Tom Steyer, Michael Bloomberg, and George Soros Soros is worth $8 billion and recently made large investments in natural gas firms (EQT) and electric vehicles (Fisker), Bloomberg has a net worth of around $70 billion and has large investments in natural gas and renewables, and much of Steyer’s wealth derives from investments in all three main fossil fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas — as well as renewables. All three men finance climate activists and politicians, including President Biden, who then seek policies — from $500 billion for renewables and electric vehicles over the next decade to federal control over state energy systems to banking regulations to bankrupt oil and gas companies — which would benefit each of them personally. Bloomberg gave over $100 million to Sierra Club to lobby to shut down coal plants after he had taken a large stake in its replacement, natural gas, and operates one of the largest news media companies in the world, which publishes articles and sends emails nearly every day reporting that climate change threatens the economy, and that solar panels and wind turbines are the only cost-effective solution. Soros donates heavily to Center for American Progress, whose founder, John Podesta, was chief of staff to Bill Clinton, campaign chairman for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, and who currently runs policy at the Biden White House. So too does Steyer, who funds the climate activist organization founded by New Yorker author Bill McKibben,, which reported revenues of nearly $20 million in 2018. The most influential environmental organization among Democrats and the Biden Administration is the Natural Resources Defense Council, NRDC, which advocated for federal control of state energy markets, the $500 billion for electric cars and renewables, and international carbon markets that would be controlled by the bankers and financiers who also donate to it. In the 1990s, NRDC helped energy trading company Enron to distribute hundreds of thousands of dollars to environmental groups. “On environmental stewardship, our experience is that you can trust Enron,” said NRDC’s Ralph Cavanagh in 1997, even though Enron executives at the time were defrauding investors of billions of dollars in an epic criminal conspiracy, which in 2001 bankrupted the company. From 2009 to 2011, NRDC advocated for and helped write complex cap-and-trade climate legislation that would have created and allowed some of their donors to take advantage of a carbon-trading market worth upwards of $1 trillion. NRDC created and invested $66 million of its own money in a BlackRock stock fund that invested heavily in natural gas companies, and in 2014 disclosed that it had millions invested in renewable funds. Former NRDC head, Gina McCarthey, now heads up Biden’s climate policy team, and Biden’s top economic advisor, Brian Deese, last worked at BlackRock, and almost certainly will return at the end of the Biden Administration. Money buys influence. In 2019, McKibben called Steyer a “climate champ” when Steyer announced he was running for president, adding that Steyer’s “just-released climate policy is damned good!” And in 2020, McKibben wrote an article called, “How Banks Could Bail Us Out of the Climate Crisis,” for The New Yorker, which repeated the claim that extreme weather created by climate change threatens financial interests, and that the way to prevent it is to divert public and private money away from reliable energy sources toward weather-dependent ones. Forms filed to the Internal Revenue Service by Steyer’s philanthropic organization, the TomKat Charitable Trust, show that it gave McKibben’s climate activist group,, $250,000 in 2012, 2014, and 2015, and may have given money to in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020, as well, because thanked either Steyer’s philanthropy, TomKat Foundation, or his organization, NextGen America, in each of its annual reports since 2013. At the same time, McKibben’s motivations are plainly spiritual. He claims that various natural disasters are caused by humans, that climate change literally threatens life on Earth, and is thus “greatest challenge humans have ever faced,” a statement so unhinged from reality, considering declining deaths from disasters, declining carbon emissions, and the total absence of any science for such a claim, that it must be considered religious. McKibben first book about climate change, The End of Nature, explicitly expressed his spiritual views, arguing that, through capitalist industrialization, humankind had lost its connection to nature. “We can no longer imagine that we are part of something larger than ourselves,” he wrote in The End of Nature. “That is what this all boils down to.” Indeed, for William James, the belief in “an unseen order” that we must adjust ourselves to, in order to avoid future punishment, is a defining feature of religion. Climate change is punishment for our sins against nature — that’s the basic narrative pushed by journalists, climate activists, and their banker sponsors, for 30 years. It has a supernatural element: the belief that natural disasters are getting worse, killing millions, and threatening the economy, when in reality they are getting better, killing fewer, and costing less. And it offers redemption: to avoid punishment we must align our behavior with the unseen order, namely, a new economy controlled by the U.N., bankers, and climate activists. Unfortunately, as is increasingly obvious, the unseen order is parasitical and destructive. When Nuclear Leads, the Bankers Will Follow The unseen order of bankers, climate activists, and the news media is so powerful that it is difficult to imagine how it could ever be challenged. The financial might of the climate lobby covers the wealth not only of billionaires Soros, Steyer, and Bloomberg, but also $130 trillion in investment funds, including many of the world’s largest pension funds, such as the one belonging to California public employees. The climate lobby’s political power is equally awesome, covering the entirety of the Democratic Party and a significant portion of the Republican Party, and most center-Left parties in Europe. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emanuel Macron, and U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm And all of that is sustained by cultural power, which has led many elites to view climate change as the world’s number one issue, has convinced half of all humans that climate change will make our species extinct, and has served as the apocalyptic foundation for Woke religion. But serious cracks in the foundation are growing. The global energy crisis has revealed for many around the world the limits of unreliable renewables, with European governments having to subsidize energy to avoid public backlash, President Biden and other heads of state opening up emergency petroleum reserves, and all nations begging OPEC to produce more energy. The blackouts and rising unreliability of electricity in California, along with the work of the pro-nuclear movement over the last 6 years, has resulted in a growing number of Democrats supporting nuclear energy. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm last week publicly urged California Governor Gavin Newsom not to close California’s Diablo Canyon nuclear plant, the signature nuclear plant Environmental Progress has been trying to save since 2016. Democratic support in particular for nuclear is growing. And alternative media including Substack, podcasts, and social media platforms are increasingly providing a counterweight to the mainstream news media, exposing a huge number of issues that the media got wrong in recent years, and amplifying alternative voices. Nowhere is the change occurring faster than in Europe, where energy shortages are affecting heating, cooking, and electricity supplies in ways that undermine the legitimacy of the banker-led climate efforts. In Britain, private energy companies have gone bankrupt, forcing the government to bail them out. For-profit energy companies, like banks, ultimately depend on taxpayers, who are also voters. Outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who led her nation’s exit from nuclear energy, acknowledged that Germany had been defeated in its anti-nuclear energy advocacy at the European Union level, and that nuclear would finally be recognized as low-carbon. And French president Emanuel Macron, under pressure from the political right as voters look to elections next year, gave a passionate speech in favor of nuclear energy last month, announcing $35 billion for new reactors. As the world returns to nuclear, policymakers, media elites, and climate advocates will be increasingly confronted with the question of why consumers and taxpayers will benefit from a global carbon trading scheme and more weather-dependent renewables, particularly at a time of declining global emissions from the continuing transition from coal to natural gas, reduced deforestation, and increased reforestation. Simply building more nuclear power plants means there is no climate change justification for weather-dependent renewables, which actually require greater use of natural gas, in order to deal with the high amount of unreliability. Nuclear power goes with slow and patient capital. The obvious funders of a nuclear expansion in the West would be the pension funds, which need the secure return on investment that major construction and infrastructure projects provide, and which unreliable renewables, as the energy crisis shows, do not. And though the news media is currently ignoring the New York Fed’s report, reporters will not be able to continue spreading misinformation about climate change indefinitely. Increasingly, they, and thus policymakers and the public, will be forced to confront facts inconvenient to their narrative, including that humans are adapting remarkably well to climate change, that renewables make energy unreliable and expensive, and that only nuclear can achieve sustainability goals of reduced emissions, material throughput, and land use. As people ask, “How Bad Are Weather Disasters?”, not just for banks, but for all of us, the answer will increasingly come back, “Not very.” *  *  * Michael Shellenberger is a Time Magazine "Hero of the Environment,"Green Book Award winner, and the founder and president of Environmental Progress. He is author of just launched book San Fransicko (Harper Collins) and the best-selling book, Apocalypse Never (Harper Collins June 30, 2020). Subscribe To Michael's substack here Donate to Environmental Progress Tyler Durden Sat, 12/04/2021 - 21:30.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge12 hr. 31 min. ago

4 reasons why lumber prices have doubled from summer lows — and why one expert sees them normalizing again

Despite the recent spike, traders can expect lumber prices to normalize in the near term and settle around $500 to $600 per thousand board feet. Josef Mohyla/Getty Images Lumber prices are on the rise once again and have doubled from summer lows. A confluence of factors is putting upward pressure on the red-hot commodity but experts say lumber will normalize. Lumber futures rose for the fifth-straight session on Friday, hitting $930 per thousand board feet. Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell The price of lumber has doubled from summer lows after a confluence of factors put upward pressure on the red-hot commodity, but some normalization may be on the way soon.Lumber futures rose for the fifth-straight session on Friday, hitting a six-month high of $930 per thousand board feet and gaining 21% for the week. Still, they're 45% below their record high of $1,711 reached in May. Analysts have highlighted four key factors contributing to the recent spike.1. Floods in CanadaThe main cause is severe flooding in British Columbia that has hampered the operations of West Fraser Timber, one of Canada's largest lumber producers, according to Ross Price, director of finance at commodity trading platform Mickey Group.West Fraser on November 30 said the natural disaster caused transportation disruptions to its rail and truck routes, including limiting access to ports for overseas shipments."This has closed roads and caused one of the world's biggest producers of lumber to pause shipments," Price told Insider, adding that the US gets most of its lumber supply from Canada. "From my perspective, it doesn't make much sense for a supplier to produce more than they can actually ship right now."2. Hoarding Exacerbating this issue is construction companies that are hoarding materials to avoid shortages, said Vanessa Miller, a partner at international law firm Foley & Lardner."This is actually creating the same type of shortages that we saw early on in the pandemic," she told Insider, noting the infamous toilet paper stockpiling the US saw last year despite the lack of an actual shortage.If the lumber supply chain was functioning properly, the price increases would not be so dramatic, Miller added.3. US tariffsAdding to lumber prices is a trade dispute, in which the US has accused Canadian suppliers of dumping. Late last month, the Commerce Department confirmed it will impose a nearly 18% tariff on imports of Canadian softwood lumber producers in 2022 — more than twice the rate of 8.99% during the Trump administration.The Biden administration initially unveiled the plan in May, causing some lumber yards to stock up and increase their orders before the tariffs kicked in.4. Hot housing marketTying these all together is the sustained, elevated focus in home building and home improvement since the start of the pandemic.While the Federal Reserve has started to curb bond buys, its ongoing emergency stimulus policies continue to keep mortgage rates low, stoking further demand in the housing sector. And with the work-from-home trend continuing, Americans are still feeling free to hunt for new homes in new markets.Why another pullback is likely on the wayTraders can expect lumber prices to retreat in the near term as mills come back online and consumer behavior — along with overall economic activity — return to normal.Still, don't expect prices to fall all the way back to pre-pandemic levels, David Russell, VP of market intelligence at TradeStation Group, an online broker-dealer. But the likelihood of a return to May's peak levels is "also probably overreacting," he told Insider.Instead, he sees lumber prices settling around $500 to $600 per thousand board feet, roughly 45% lower than the current levels."This is the aftershock of that huge earthquake," Russel said, referring to the spring price rally. "After this, we will see the volatility decrease and things will start to stabilize."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider18 hr. 47 min. ago

Panicked New York bagel shop owners are hoarding cream cheese and crossing state lines for supply as dairy companies struggle against supply chain crisis

Several business owners told the New York Times they only have enough cream cheese to last a handful of days and are at a loss for alternatives. iStock/Getty Images New York City bagel shops are experiencing a shortage of cream cheese due to heightened demand and supply chain constraints.  Several store owners told the New York Times they've started hoarding cream cheese or driving to New Jersey for supply.  The schmear is the latest consumer product to be hit by the ongoing supply chain crisis.  The supply chain crisis has come for yet another beloved commodity — New York City bagels. Bagel shops in the nation's largest city are experiencing an unprecedented shortage of cream cheese, causing many to begin hoarding the spread, with some even crossing over state lines to get it, the New York Times reported. Local favorites from Zabar's and Tompkins Square Bagels in Manhattan to Shelsky's in Brooklyn said they are struggling to find ways to meet demand for the schmear.According to the New York Times, dairy manufacturers and suppliers have come up short in filling orders of pallets of unprocessed and unwhipped cream cheese in recent weeks. Bagel shops use this raw cream cheese as a foundation to create their own flavors, and thus typically don't turn to grocery store alternatives to fill voids. Several business owners told the Times they only have enough cream cheese to last a handful of days, and are at a loss for alternatives. On Thursday, the owner of Tompkins Square Bagels in Lower Manhattan was informed his 800-pound order of cream cheese would not be arriving at all. "Sunday bagels are sacred," Christopher Pugliese, the owner of Tompkins Square Bagels, told the New York Times. "I hate feeling like I've let people down."The spread is the latest in a growing list of consumer products plagued by shortages thanks to the supply chain crisis. Everything from personal-care products to popular food items continue to face bottlenecks, leading to recent price hikes across major consumer packaged goods companies like Unilever and Procter & Gamble. According to Kraft Heinz, the parent company of Philadelphia Cream Cream, the cream cheese shortage is tied to increased demand for "several of its products," partially driven by a rise in Americans eating from home during the pandemic. "We continue to see elevated and sustained demand across a number of categories where we compete," Jenna Thornton, a Kraft Heinz spokeswoman, told the Times. "As more people continue to eat breakfast at home and use cream cheese as an ingredient in easy desserts, we expect to see this trend continue."And while bagel shop owners said they have no immediate plans to increase prices, some are cutting less popular flavors of cream cheese from their lineups in an effort to preserve the commodity. "This is bad. This is very bad," Pedro Aguilar, a manager at Pick-a-Bagel, told the Times.  Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsider18 hr. 47 min. ago

The 13 best places to buy furniture online, for every style and every budget

Whether you need a sturdy sofa or elegant dining table, here are the best furniture stores for all styles and budgets. Prices are accurate at the time of publication.When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Pottery Barn Plenty of furniture stores offer online shopping. With so many options, we rounded up a list of the best furniture stores for a range of shoppers. Some of our picks include Pottery Barn, Wayfair, Ballard Designs, One Kings Lane, and more. Shopping for furniture can be difficult. With possible shipping delays, shortages, and other factors, it's not always easy to find furniture you love. Whether you're looking for a couch or desk, you'll find lots of options at well-known furniture stores like Pottery Barn or Crate & Barrel. But there are also some other stores you may be less familiar with. One Kings Lane, AllModern, and Kaiyo are all great options for furniture stores that you might not think of right away.Here are the best furniture stores in 2021Target Urban OutfittersWayfair Grandin RoadWorld MarketAllModernKaiyoOne Kings LanePottery BarnCrate & BarrelBallard DesignsDear Keaton Serena and LilyTargetTargetTypical price range: $100 to $5,000Best for: Affordable furnitureDesign service: NoShipping costs: Free for orders over $35Experiencing shipping delays: Shipping delays reportedAverage shipping time: 3 to 5 business daysWhite glove delivery: Yes, $40 up to $200 depending on weightIn-store pickup: YesReturn policy: Return within 90 daysRestocking/return fees: NoneFinancing options: Affirm, Sezzle, PayPalShop furniture at Target.Target is the one-stop-shop for everything you need from groceries to household items. The retail giant has affordable prices in most categories of items sold, including furniture. Target often does furniture and home decor collaborations with Jungalow, Studio McGee, and Magnolia offering some of the trendiest and stylish designs for your home. Target has a solid selection of seating, side tables, dining tables, desks, and more. Although Target doesn't have design services, if you shop from the collaborations, you'll be able to find furniture and home decor that match, as well as style idea posts for more inspiration. Plus, if you need to return furniture or don't want to deal with shipping fees, Target has in-store pick up and returns for furniture items. Worth looking at:Opalhouse designed with Jungalow Siena Upholstered Anywhere Chair$220.00 FROM TARGETThreshold designed with Studio McGee Thousand Oaks Wood Scalloped TV Stand$400.00 FROM TARGETProject 62 Astrid Mid-Century Round Dining Table with Fixed Top$250.00 FROM TARGETUrban OutfittersUrban OutfittersTypical price range: $150 to $2,300Best for: Young adults, college studentsDesign service: NoShipping costs: $100 flat rateExperiencing shipping delays: Possible shipping delays reportedAverage shipping time: 2 to 4 weeksWhite glove delivery: NoIn-store pickup: YesReturn policy: Return within 30 days, cannot return items in-storeRestocking/return fees: NoneFinancing options: AfterPayShop furniture at Urban Outfitters.Urban Outfitters is better known as a trendy clothing retailer for teens and young adults. However, the company has a lesser-known online furniture collection that is mid-priced and offers a huge selection of stylish furniture. Whether you're furnishing a dorm, apartment, or new house, the furniture collection at Urban Outfitters has a variety of furniture for every room in your home. From art deco to boho chic, there are many pieces of unique furniture for under $1,000 at Urban Outfitters. Worth looking at:Urban Outfitters Castella Chair$499.00 FROM URBAN OUTFITTERSUrban Outfitters Isobel Storage Console$729.00 FROM URBAN OUTFITTERSUrban Outfitters Ophelia Side Table$159.00 FROM URBAN OUTFITTERSWayfairWayfairTypical price range: $150 to $10,000+Best for: College students, furnishing a new houseDesign services: NoShipping costs: $5 for orders un $35, free shipping over $35Experiencing shipping delays: Possible delays on bigger furniture itemsAverage shipping time: 8 business daysIn-store pickup: Online only White glove delivery: Yes, price varies by furniture sizeReturn policy: Return within 30 days Restocking/return fees: Return fee will be deducted from refund and depends on where you liveFinancing options: Affirm, Citizens Pay, Fortiva Retail Credit, Acima, KatapultShop furniture at Wayfair.Wayfair is an affordable way to shop for furniture online and have it delivered to your doorstep. Prices for furniture vary by size, but in general Wayfair has a massive selection of furniture to choose from that won't break the bank. Since Wayfair doesn't manufacture furniture itself, it sells furniture from tons of different suppliers. Although Wayfair vets its suppliers, the quality of furniture can vary, so it's important to do your research and read reviews on items you're considering. A lot of the furniture comes disassembled, so you will likely need to do some light labor to get certain furniture items put together. Furniture that needs assembly comes with hardware so you don't need to worry about screws and bolts.Wayfair is ideal for younger people like college students who can't afford expensive items but still want good quality furniture. Worth looking at:Andover Mills Newt Low Profile Platform Bed$225.99 FROM WAYFAIRGeorge Oliver Bryoni 3 Legs End Table$81.99 FROM WAYFAIREtta Avenue Bram 4 - Person Dining Set$509.99 FROM WAYFAIROriginally $599.99 | Save 15%Grandin RoadGrandin RoadTypical price range: $150 to $2,000Best for: Dining room and living room seating, seasonal decorDesign service: NoShipping costs: $10 to $80 or 8% of the total purchase for orders $1,000 and overExperiencing shipping delays: No shipping delays reportedAverage shipping time: 3 to 7 business daysWhite glove delivery: Yes, minimum $199 feeIn-store pickup: NoReturn policy: Return within 90 daysRestocking/return fees: Shipping will not be refunded, return fee of $100 or 10% of the purchase price for white-glove delivered returnsFinancing options: Only with a Grandin Road credit cardShop furniture at Grandin Road.Grandin Road is well-known for having a solid selection of seasonal and holiday home decor, but the company also sells quality, affordable indoor and outdoor furniture.If you've been on the hunt for seating, especially dining or living room chairs, then Grandin Road is the place for you. You can find many different styles, with many options for under $400. Grandin Road doesn't have a huge selection of sofas, but it does offer many choices for chairs, bar stools, ottomans, and benches. You should take a look at the sale section of Grandin Road as it's usually well-stocked with good furniture deals. Worth looking at:Grandin Road Julien Bar & Counter Stool$109.00 FROM GRANDIN ROADGrandin Road Valencia Side Chair, Set of Two$269.10 FROM GRANDIN ROADGrandin Road Phoebe Swivel Chair (Velvet)$404.10 FROM GRANDIN ROADWorld MarketWorld MarketTypical price range: $200 to $3,000Best for: Accent furniture, mid century modern furniture Design service: NoShipping costs: $5 to $60, 10% of purchase price for orders over $600Experiencing shipping delays: None reportedAverage shipping time: 7 to 14 business daysWhite glove delivery: NoIn-store pickup: YesReturn policy: Return within 30 days Restocking/return fees: Shipping non-refundable Financing options: AfterPayShop furniture at World Market.World Market not only has some of the best home decor at affordable prices, but the retail giant also sells an impressive selection of chic and trendy furniture as well. Prices of the furniture pieces vary, but in general, the items are budget-friendly. One of World Market's best categories for furniture are its selection of accent and task chairs for your bedroom or living room. The chairs come in all sorts of styles, colors, and materials. If you've been in the market for an accent chair, World Market is the place to go. Other great selections of furniture at World Market include its mid-century modern collection or farmhouse collection.Worth looking at:World Market Tyley Upholstered Chair$249.99 FROM WORLD MARKETWorld Market Wide Natural Rattan Nylah Bookshelf$279.99 FROM WORLD MARKETWorld Market Wood and Metal Multi Level Coffee Table$279.99 FROM WORLD MARKETAllModernAllModernTypical price range: $200 to $8,600Best for: Modern, mid-century modern furniture Design service: NoShipping costs: Free for order $35 and overExperiencing shipping delays: None reportedAverage shipping time: 1 to 2 weeks, each item lists estimated delivery time, larger items may take longerWhite glove delivery: Yes, $120In-store pickup: NoReturn policy: Within 30 daysRestocking/return fees: Must pay for your own shippingFinancing options: Affirm, Citizens Pay, Fortiva Retail Credit, Acima, KatapultShop furniture at AllModern.AllModern is an affordable furniture company that is operated by its parent company, Wayfair. Although owned by Wayfair, AllModern has a more curated selection. Minimalist, modern farmhouse, mid-century modern, and Scandinavian are just a few of the styles of furniture that AllModern carries. AllModern offers convenience and affordability, with free shipping over $35.There have not been any reports of delayed shipping, likely due to the fact that each item shows an estimated delivery time before you even put it in your cart. This transparency will give you an idea of when you can expect an item to arrive. Due to the site's popularity, items can quickly go out of stock. Worth looking at:AllModern Kaitlin 89'' Sofa$1180.00 FROM ALLMODERNOriginally $1497.00 | Save 21%AllModern Boynton Bed$535.00 FROM ALLMODERNOriginally $918.00 | Save 42%AllModern Aramis Writing Desk$280.00 FROM ALLMODERNKaiyoKaiyoTypical price range: $200 to $10,000+Best for: Pre-loved furniture, vintage furnitureDesign service: NoShipping costs: $149 and up Experiencing shipping delays: No shipping delays reportedAverage shipping time: 2 to 6 weeks White glove delivery: Only for those who live in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, or PennsylvaniaIn-store pickup: Warehouse pick up in North Bergen, New Jersey or Hyattsville, MarylandReturn policy: Must inspect item when it arrives and you can reject the delivery for a returnRestocking/return fees: $40 return fee if item is rejected through shipping, $20 return fee from warehouse pick up Financing options: NoneShop furniture at Kaiyo.For those looking for an environmentally friendly way to shop or sell furniture, Kaiyo is an excellent option. The furniture retailer will review, inspect, and clean incoming used furniture to sell online. You can order for delivery or pick up in one of the warehouses in New Jersey or Maryland. Since Kaiyo sources all kinds of furniture, you can find a range of brands and styles. We saw Ballard Designs, Pottery Barn, West Elm, and hundreds of other high-quality furniture manufacturers. Besides keeping furniture out of landfills, one of the best perks is that you can get items that are gently used for discounted prices. One thing to note is that shipping can get expensive if you don't live in the New York City metropolitan area. To ship a $400 table to Seattle, it would have been $600 just for shipping. Worth looking at:Ballard Designs Tailored Storage Ottoman$227.00 FROM KAIYOOriginally $799.00 | Save 72%Emmerson Reclaimed Wood Dining Table$619.00 FROM KAIYO$1099.00 FROM WEST ELMArticle Burrard Loveseat$745.00 FROM KAIYOOriginally $1299.00 | Save 43%One Kings LaneOne Kings LaneTypical price range: $300 to $10,000+Best for: High-end eclectic and modern furniture Design services: Yes, $295 to $995Shipping costs: Free unless order is big or bulky. Orders $300 to $3,000 cost 10% of purchase, orders over $3,000 cost 5% of the purchase priceExperiencing shipping delays: Listings have estimated shipping times which are several months outAverage shipping time: Several weeks to months depending on itemWhite glove delivery: Yes, $249-$349In-store pickup: NoReturn policy: Returnable within 30 days of purchase or deliveryRestocking/return fees: 15% return fee and $300 return fee for white-glove delivered itemsFinancing options: NoneShop furniture at One Kings Lane.One Kings Lane is an excellent choice for luxury furniture. Although at the top tier of our pricing guide, One Kings Lane has beautiful, eye-catching furniture in a variety of styles. We even found a good amount of pieces below $1,000, though many are above. Looking for vintage and eclectic furniture? One Kings Lane has a solid selection of one-of-a-kind furniture and designs. For more modern furniture, you can likely find the style you're looking for as well. The high-end furniture store only sells online with an appointment-only showroom in New York. Something to note is that it may be hard to judge colors and materials with the only option to order online. Worth looking at:One Kings Lane Larkspur Console$1395.00 FROM ONE KINGS LANEOne Kings Lane Capri Sofa$2795.00 FROM ONE KINGS LANEOne Kings Lane Capello Dresser$429.50 FROM ONE KINGS LANE Originally $575.00 | Save 25%Pottery BarnPottery BarnTypical price range: $300 to $10,000+Best for: Living room seating, kids furniture, those with sustainability in mind Design services: Yes, freeShipping costs: 10% of the total cost of purchases $200 and over, surcharge may be added for bigger items Experiencing shipping delays: Some customers are experiencing delays with furniture Average shipping time: 7 to 10 business daysWhite glove delivery: Yes, $149-$249 In-store pickup: YesReturn policy: Return within 30 days of receiving or purchasing an item, custom furniture is non-returnableRestocking/return fees: NoneFinancing options: Affirm, Key Rewards credit cardShop furniture at Pottery Barn.Pottery Barn is another staple furniture store that offers in-store and online shopping for high-quality pieces. While Pottery Barn is still on the more expensive end of the price spectrum, it has a lot of solid pieces of furniture for under $1,000. Pottery Barn is known for having exceptional seating, including couches, chairs, and loveseats. While it won't be the cheapest place to buy a couch, it's less expensive than some of the other furniture competitors. Plus, Pottery Barn tags furniture that is Fair Trade or sustainably sourced for the environmentally conscious shoppers.In addition to the huge selection of modern furniture featured at Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids is one of the best places to shop for children and teens' rooms. PB Kids has cute decor as well. With services like free interior designing and white glove delivery, Pottery Barn is one of the best places to shop for furniture. Worth looking at:Pottery Barn Edison Daybed Sleeper$599.00 FROM POTTERY BARNPottery Barn Garby Metal Nightstand, Set of 2$299.00 FROM POTTERY BARNPottery Barn Kids Sloan Bookrack$249.00 FROM POTTERY BARN KIDSCrate & BarrelCrate & BarrelTypical price range: $300 to $10,000+Best for: customizable furniture, those looking for a variety of materials to choose from Design services: Yes, freeShipping costs: Orders $220 or more will cost 10% of the total furniture price for standard shippingExperiencing shipping delays: Delays for custom and non-custom furnitureAverage shipping time: 3 to 5 business days without delaysWhite glove delivery: Yes, $79 to $299In-store pickup: YesReturn policy: Must contact Crate & Barrel within 7 days of purchase or delivery and the furniture must be returned within 30 days in-store. No returns for custom furniture. Restocking/return fees: Financing options: Only with a Crate & Barrel credit cardShop furniture at Crate & Barrel.Crate & Barrel is one of the most well-known furniture stores in the US. The high-end furniture store offers a huge selection of furniture from rugs to sectionals. Crate & Barrel has an impressive selection of custom furniture. You can choose from a library of materials, colors, and fabrics, making it a great place to shop for custom furniture.Quality furniture comes with a high price tag, and Crate & Barrel is no exception. While you can usually find home decor and kitchenware for under $100, you'll be hard pressed to find any furniture in the lower hundreds. If you have a larger budget for furniture, Crate & Barrel is an excellent place to start designing a space. There are free design services offered, and you can book a one-on-one appointment with a Crate & Barrel Design Pro. If you're looking to furnish a space, be sure to take into account current shipping delays with furniture, especially custom pieces. Worth looking at:Crate & Barrel Miro Glass Coffee Table with Black Wood Base$499.00 FROM CRATE & BARRELCrate & Barrel Wells Sofa with Natural Leg Finish$1599.00 FROM CRATE & BARRELCrate & Barrel Libby Accent Chair$499.00 FROM CRATE & BARRELBallard DesignsBallard DesignsTypical price range: $500 to $10,000+Best for: European-style furniture, solid wood materials Design service: Yes, freeShipping costs: $200 and under will be 15% of the purchase, orders over $200 will be 10% of the purchaseExperiencing shipping delays: Delays have been reportedAverage shipping time: 3 to 7 business daysWhite glove delivery: Yes, $35In-store pickup: NoReturn policy: Return or exchange within 90 daysRestocking/return fees: Depending on the size returns are free or a $9 shipping feeFinancing options: Only through the Ballard Designs credit cardShop furniture at Ballard Designs.Ballard Designs has a huge selection of high-end furniture that will transport you to the French countryside. The European-inspired furniture company is known for its eclectic and unique collections with pieces made of quality materials including solid wood. This kind of furniture comes with a high price tag, but Ballard Designs offers a variety of services to make it worth your money and time. With complimentary design services, you can work with an interior designer to get the style you want for any room in your home. There have been consistent shipping delays, so be sure to look at stock shipping estimates before you check out. Ballard Designs also has a generous return policy of 90 days. Worth looking at:Ballard Designs Brunello Dining Table$1439.10 FROM BALLARD DESIGNSOriginally $1599.00 | Save 10%Ballard Designs Grace 2 Drawer Open Shelf Side Table$639.20 FROM BALLARD DESIGNSOriginally $799.00 | Save 20%Ballard Designs Montrose Live Edge Bar with Stools$1793.99 FROM BALLARD DESIGNSOriginally $3499.00 | Save 49%Dear KeatonDear KeatonTypical price range: $800 to $6,600Best for: Resort-style, globally inspired furnitureDesign service: NoShipping costs: $9 to $25, or 10% of the purchase for orders over $250Experiencing shipping delays: None reportedAverage shipping time: 2 to 4 weeks, white-glove delivery 4 to 6 weeksWhite glove delivery: YesIn-store pickup: NoReturn policy: Return within 14 daysRestocking/return fees: 20% restocking feeFinancing options: NoneShop furniture at Dear Keaton.Dear Keaton is branded as a "resort-living" furniture retailer, and the furniture pieces will remind you of sand, surf, and tropical weather. Wicker and rattan are common materials. In addition to indoor furniture, Dear Keaton sells a solid selection of outdoor furniture to match your indoor look. The home decor section is also full of chic accessories and accent pieces for your relaxed resort style.Dear Keaton is on the higher end of the price spectrum, and most of the larger furniture pieces have an additional fee for shipping and handling. Worth looking at:Dear Keaton Sadara Club Chair$1496.00 FROM DEAR KEATONDear Keaton Castara Cane Bed$1299.00 FROM DEAR KEATONDear Keaton Chatham Dining Table$2792.00 FROM DEAR KEATONSerena & LilySerena and LilyTypical price range: $800 to $10,000+Best for: Coastal, light and bright-colored furniture Design service: Yes, freeShipping costs: $10 to $229 or 6% of the total purchase if the order is over $4,000Experiencing shipping delays: Delays have been reported around the holidaysAverage shipping time: 7 to 10 businesses days, 2 to 4 weeks for white glove deliveryWhite glove delivery: Yes, price varies In-store pickup: NoReturn policy: Return within 30 days of deliveryRestocking/return fees: $15 return shipping fee, white-glove delivered items will be charged a 15% return feeFinancing options: AffirmShop furniture at Serena & Lily.Serena & Lily is a luxury online furniture store that features coastal pieces for your home. Blue, white, light grey, and wood or natural colors are prominent tones. A mix of nautical and boho-chic styles, the furniture retailer specializes in everything from bed frames to dining tables. If you're not sure what you're looking for, Serena & Lily has complimentary design services to help guide you through furnishing or decorating your home. Serena & Lily notes on its website that, especially around the holidays, customers should expect shipping times to be longer than usual. Worth looking at:Serena & Lily Del Rey Bed (Queen)$2998.00 FROM SERENA & LILYSerena & Lily Driftway Console$1798.00 FROM SERENA & LILYOriginally $2298.00 | Save 22%Serena & Lily Sunwashed Riviera Dining Chair$248.00 FROM SERENA & LILYOriginally $298.00 | Save 17%Other great furniture guides to check outCrate & BarrelBest bed framesBest couches and sofasBest end tableBest desksBest online interior design serviceRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytDec 3rd, 2021

The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW) Down 5.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues. A month has gone by since the last earnings report for The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW). Shares have lost about 5.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is The Manitowoc Company, Inc. due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers. Manitowoc Q3 Earnings and Revenues Miss EstimatesManitowoc reported third-quarter 2021 earnings of 6 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 10 cents by margin of 40%. The bottom line declined 40% from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of 10 cents per share. The company witnessed strong order rates and continued positive customer sentiment through the quarter. However, cost inflation and parts shortages impaired the company’s ability to achieve its shipments.Including one-time items, the company reported a loss per share of 1 cent in the quarter, flat compared with the prior-year quarter.Manitowoc’s revenues climbed 14% to $405 million from the prior-year quarter figure of $355 million. However, the top line lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $463 million. Orders in the reported quarter increased 37% year over year to $535 million. Backlog as of the end of the reported quarter was $890.6 million, up 92% from the year-ago quarter’s end.Operational UpdateCost of sales increased 15% year over year to $335 million in the reported quarter. Gross profit improved 6% year over year to $69 million. Gross margin was 17.1% in the reported quarter compared with 18.3% in the prior-year quarter. Engineering, selling and administrative expenses increased 21% year over year to $59.7 million. Adjusted operating income was $9.7 million in the quarter, which declined 38% from $15.6 million in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA in the reported quarter was $20 million, down 19% from $24.8 million in third-quarter 2020 on higher material and transportation costs, and lower plant productivity. Adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 210 basis points year over year to 4.9% in the quarter under review.Financial UpdatesManitowoc reported cash and cash equivalents of $222 million as of Sep 30, 2021, up from $128.7 million as of Dec 31, 2020. Long-term debt was $400 million as of Sep 30, 2021, up from $300 million as of Dec 31, 2020. The company generated $68 million of cash in operating activities in first nine-month period of 2021 compared with cash utilization of $70.9 million in the prior-year comparable period.On Oct 1, 2021, Manitowoc completed the acquisition of the crane business of H&E Equipment Services, Inc., one of the largest rental equipment companies in the United States, for $130 million. The acquisition expands Manitowoc’s ability to provide rentals, new sales, used sales, aftermarket parts, and service to a variety of end market customers. This is in sync with the company’s intention to grow via four strategic priorities, one of which is focused on buyouts to grow its aftermarket business. Earlier in September, Manitowoc completed the acquisition of all the assets of Aspen Equipment Company, a diversified crane dealer and a leading final-stage, purpose-built work truck upfitter, for approximately $51 million.OutlookManitowoc has been witnessing positive trends in crane demand. It anticipates rising inflation, supply chain shortages, and skilled labor constraints to impact results in the remaining part of the year and in 2022 as well.Manitowoc expects revenues in the range of $1.725 to $1.775 billion, down from the prior expectation of $1.775 to $1.825 billion in 2021. Adjusted EBITDA is now anticipated between $100 million and $110 million, compared with the prior guidance of $105-$115 million.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -60.42% due to these changes.VGM ScoresCurrently, The Manitowoc Company, Inc. has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, The Manitowoc Company, Inc. has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months. Zacks' Top Picks to Cash in on Artificial Intelligence In 2021, this world-changing technology is projected to generate $327.5 billion in revenue. Now Shark Tank star and billionaire investor Mark Cuban says AI will create "the world's first trillionaires." Zacks' urgent special report reveals 3 AI picks investors need to know about today.See 3 Artificial Intelligence Stocks With Extreme Upside Potential>>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 3rd, 2021

Why Is Vishay (VSH) Up 3.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

Vishay (VSH) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues. It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Vishay Intertechnology (VSH). Shares have added about 3.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Vishay due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers. Vishay's Q3 Earnings & Revenues Up Y/YVishay Intertechnology reported third-quarter 2021 adjusted earnings of 63 cents per share, which surged 152% year over year and 3.3% sequentially.However, the figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.9%.Revenues of $813.7 million increased 27.1% year over year but declined 0.7% from the previous quarter. Further, the figure lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $834.1 million.The strong performance of resistor, inductor, diode, MOSFET, capacitor and opto product lines drove year-over-year revenues growth in the reported quarter.Vishay’s book-to-bill ratio was 1.26 at the end of the third quarter.The company’s continued focus on expanding its manufacturing capacities is a key catalyst. Further, growth prospects related to factory automation, electric vehicles, and 5G infrastructure remain positives.Product Segments in DetailResistors: The segment generated revenues of $181 million (22% of total revenues), up 24% year over year. The strong momentum of resistors across automotive, industrial, military and medical markets was a positive. The book-to-bill ratio for the product line was 1.26 in the reported quarter.Inductors: The product line generated revenues of $85 million (10% of total revenues), which increased 7% on a year-over-year basis. This was primarily attributed to the company’s well-performing magnetics, which continued to drive its specialty business. The book-to-bill ratio for the product line was 1.11 at the end of the reported quarter.MOSFET: The product line generated revenues of $176 million (22% of total revenues), improving 31% year over year. The book-to-bill ratio for the product line was 1.19 at the end of the reported quarter. Growing momentum across the automotive space and solid demand environment contributed well.Capacitors: The product line generated revenues of $116 million (14% of total revenues), up 25% year over year. The book-to-bill ratio for the product line was 1.7 in the reported quarter. Growing opportunities for capacitors in the areas of power transmission and electro cars remain tailwinds.However, shortages of labor were concerning as manufacturing output and sales were hurt for capacitors.Diodes: The segment generated revenues of $185 million (23% of total revenues), up 49% from the year-ago quarter. Vishay’s strong momentum across the automotive and industrial markets with diodes remained a positive. The book-to-bill ratio for the product line was 1.31 in the quarter under review.Optoelectronics: The product line generated revenues of $71 million (9% of the total revenues) in the reported quarter. The figure was up 9% from the year-ago quarter. The book-to-bill ratio for the product line was 1.36 for the period.Operating DetailsIn third-quarter 2021, the gross margin was 27.7%, expanding 400 basis points (bps) on a year-over-year basis.Selling, general and administrative expenses were $102.2 million, increasing 13.3% year over year. As a percentage of total revenues, the figure contracted 150 bps from the year-ago quarter to 12.6%.Consequently, the operating margin expanded 560 bps on a year-over-year basis to 15.2%.Balance Sheet & Cash FlowsAs of Oct 2, 2021, cash and cash equivalents were $831.8 million, up from $726.8 million as of Jul 3, 2021. Short-term investments were $84.2 million, down from $129.03 million in the previous quarter. Inventories were $532.7 million, up from $507.9 million in the prior quarter.Long-term debt was $454.8 million at the end of the third quarter compared with $454.03 million at the end of the second quarter.In the third quarter, Vishay generated $135.7 million of cash from operations, up from $117.5 million in the previous quarter.The company’s free cash flow in the reported quarter was $79.2 million, increasing from $85.3 million in the prior quarter.GuidanceFor fourth-quarter 2021, Vishay expects total revenues of $805-$845 million. The company anticipates a fourth-quarter gross margin of 27.7% (+/-50 bps).How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.VGM ScoresAt this time, Vishay has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, Vishay has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months. Zacks' Top Picks to Cash in on Artificial Intelligence In 2021, this world-changing technology is projected to generate $327.5 billion in revenue. Now Shark Tank star and billionaire investor Mark Cuban says AI will create "the world's first trillionaires." Zacks' urgent special report reveals 3 AI picks investors need to know about today.See 3 Artificial Intelligence Stocks With Extreme Upside Potential>>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. (VSH): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 3rd, 2021

Century (CENX) Up 1.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Century (CENX) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues. A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Century Aluminum (CENX). Shares have added about 1.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Century due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. Century Aluminum’s Q3 Earnings Beat, Sales Lag EstimatesCentury Aluminum reported a net loss of $52.4 million or 58 cents per share in third-quarter 2021, narrower than a loss of $58.2 million or 65 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. The bottom line in the reported quarter was affected by $46.7 million of exceptional items.Barring one-time items, the adjusted loss was 6 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 10 cents.Revenues and ShipmentsThe company generated net sales of $581.4 million in the third quarter, climbing 48% year over year from $392.9 million. The top line, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $602.9 million. Net sales in the third quarter of 2021 increased around 10% sequentially due to higher aluminum prices and a rise in regional premiums.Shipments of primary aluminum were 196,095 tons, down 3.4% year over year but up 3% sequentially led by the restart project at Mt. Holly and ongoing project activity at Hawesville.FinancialsAt the end of the quarter, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $57.6 million, down 29.2% year over year.Net cash used in operating activities was $12.1 million in the nine months ended Sep 30, 2021.OutlookThe company stated that it is on track with the progress of the expansion projects at Mt. Holly and Hawesville, and expects both projects to be completed by the year-end, which will provide the much-needed additional units to the marketplace as well as additional LME and regional premium pricing exposure. Also, it has started the construction of a new 150,000 ton low-carbon billet cast-house at Grundartangi. The completion of the 2-year project promises to cast over 80% of Grundartangi’s production as value-added products, further strengthening the world-class asset. The billets and other value-added products at Grundartangi will continue to be produced using 100% renewable energy, thereby expanding the company’s Natur-Al line of low-carbon products and bringing low-carbon billets to the European marketplace.The company also noted that global energy shortages and China’s de-carbonization policies have led to production cuts in China and Europe, leading the global aluminum market into deficit and taking down aluminum inventories to multi-year lows.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -84.3% due to these changes.VGM ScoresCurrently, Century has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Century has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months. Zacks' Top Picks to Cash in on Artificial Intelligence In 2021, this world-changing technology is projected to generate $327.5 billion in revenue. Now Shark Tank star and billionaire investor Mark Cuban says AI will create "the world's first trillionaires." Zacks' urgent special report reveals 3 AI picks investors need to know about today.See 3 Artificial Intelligence Stocks With Extreme Upside Potential>>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Century Aluminum Company (CENX): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 3rd, 2021

The Training Wheels Are Off

The Training Wheels Are Off Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities, The child’s thrill of being free to ride, almost feeling as if you could fly! The parent’s trepidation of letting the bike go for the first time. Sometimes that first ride goes without a hitch. It often ends up with some scrapes and bruises, but ultimately ends in success. I think we are at that moment where the parent is running alongside the bike, just about ready to let go for the first time. I am currently modestly bearish the overall market, though bullish on re-opening type trades, and bearish on some of the biggest winners. On credit, I’m cautious and resisting the urge to hit the “buy buy buy” button, but think that time will be soon. I’d really like to load up on European and emerging market risk, but I’ve locked that “buy” button away for now. This follows up Sunday’s ΔΓΟ (Delta, Gamma, Omicron) report. It also fits nicely with yesterday’s Bloomberg TV where we hit on many of these subjects. What Training Wheels are Being Removed? I think there are a few key elements that the markets must digest. Some have already started to get priced in, some have been discussed, but not reacted to, and some I think are being ignored at our own peril. Less Supportive Central Bank Policy. This is starting to sink in. Powell finally got rid of the word transitory. Markets are trying to figure out if a policy mistake is coming (curve flattening). There is also some discussion about just how serious Powell is. The Bank of England after all, had the market all set for a hike and then flaked at the last second. So, it is reasonable to believe that Powell may be talking tough, but won’t act tough. I expect a much faster pace of tapering to be announced at December, while he tries to downplay the need to hike, or how far and fast they will have to hike. In any case, I think the market must absorb a bit more volatility, especially in the stocks that seem to have been most dependent on TINA (there is no alternative). Inflation has become a political hot potato. If you think Powell’s job was already difficult (which it is) add in the fact that politicians are now weighing in on inflation. Some of their takes strike me as completely absurd, but inflation and interest rates have moved out of the wonky world of Wall Street into the soundbite world of D.C.  I think this is such an important distinction that I have treated it as a separate bullet point, rather than lumping it into the less supportive central bank bullet. Consumption was brought forward. The T-Report has been speculating about the idea that consumers, not being stupid, responded to supply shortages, by loading up on goods early, for well over a month, but now we are seeing signs that the speculation may be accurate. Black Friday sales were down (even with higher prices). Ditto for Cyber Monday (btw, the number of “you still have time to get XX% off” e-mails that are flooding my inbox, isn’t comforting). Finally, yesterday, Apple told suppliers iPhone demand is slowing ahead of the holidays. I don’t think any risk of consumer slowdown is being priced in, largely because it is a highly speculative argument I’ve made, but as anecdotal evidence starts getting supported by hard evidence, this could become a market moving issue relatively quickly. Maybe we see a shift from spending on goods to services, but that assumes that consumers aren’t tapped out, and that covid won’t interfere with the service oriented sector (a risk that seems to be increasing with the omicron variant). The Re-Centralization of China. The August 1st T-Report discusses the basic premise that China is delinking from the global economy, and reasserting the authority of the Communist Party. Nothing has changed since then, and China continues to plow ahead in the process. The biggest takeaways are that China will no longer act as a deflationary influence and that businesses and the global economy need to adjust to this new reality. KWEB, a China Internet ETF is down 42% YTD, but its 3 year annual return is just over 1% (that seems shockingly low). FXI, a broad based China ETF is “only” down 18% on the year but has annualized losses of 1% of the past 3 years. Normally, as a contrarian, I’d be chomping at the bit to buy these, but I won’t touch them as I think it is reflective of an ongoing trend that will not reverse quickly. It might also be worth mention that Lehman was NOT a Moment, and the Evergrande/real estate story in China is far from being resolved. Bottom Line I think we can remain cautious on risk, continuing to shift into companies and industries that will benefit from a focus on domestic supply chains (production repatriation) while being cautious on those stocks that most benefitted from the environment that seems to be ending to me. The bright side, is I do see an economy and market that will be really exciting to be a part of, and that we might even skip the scrapes and bruises, though I suspect we won’t learn to ride without training wheels without a little more difficulty. While I did mention covid once in this report, I want to re-emphasize that my concerns right now are NOT tied to covid at all (I suspect we will adjust to the new variant and governments across the globe will not muck things up with unnecessary and/or impractical rules). In any case, December might be more interesting than usual! Tyler Durden Fri, 12/03/2021 - 06:30.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytDec 3rd, 2021

November Payrolls Preview: Strong Enough To Justify The Accelerated Taper?

November Payrolls Preview: Strong Enough To Justify The Accelerated Taper? With Powell's Fed having telegraphed it will accelerate the taper at this month's meeting so it can start presumably start hiking as soon as June of 2022, the November payrolls report may be moot although traders will be looking for barbell signs: will it be strong enough to validate an accelerated taper, or could it come so far below expectations that the Fed will be forced to delay its taper-boosting plans. Looking at the expectations, Newsquawk reminds us that analysts look for 550k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in November, similar to October's 531k; the jobless rate is seen falling by one-tenth of a percent to 4.5%. While as noted above the Fed appears almost certain to announce a quickening in the pace of QE tapering, analysts will be carefully watching measures of labor market slack to gauge the progress towards the Fed's 'three tests' for rate hikes: i) Participation was unchanged in October, ii) employment-population ticked up by 0.1ppts, while iii) the U6 measure of underemployment fell 0.2ppts. With the inflation tests met, the labor market data will form a key part of the Fed's arguments for rate hikes, and any significant  improvement in these metrics may see markets further price in tighter rates next year. Meanwhile, labor market gauges have generally been constructive in November: the rate of initial jobless claims going into the November survey period improved relative to the October window; ADP's gauge of payrolls was in line with expectations, though the pace eased vs October; business surveys saw employment sub-indices improve and are alluding to a very tight labor market, while today's Challenger job cuts fell to the lowest since 1993. Here is a summary of expectations: Nonfarm payrolls are expected to print 550k in November vs 531k in October (private payrolls expected at 530k vs 604k prior, manufacturing payrolls expected at 45k vs prior 60k); the 3-month average nonfarm payrolls trend rate eased to 442k in October (vs 629k in September), the 6-month average rose to 666k (from 622k) and the 12-month average eased to 481k (from 494k). The unemployment rate is seen declining by 0.1ppts in November to 4.5%; Labor market participation was unchanged at 61.6% in October (vs 63.6% in February 2020), U6 underemployment declined by 0.2ppts to 8.3% (vs 7.0% in February 2020), and the employment-population ratio rose 0.1ppts to 58.8% (vs pre-pandemic 61.1%). Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.4% M/M, with the annual measure expected to rise by 0.1ppts to 4.0% Y/Y, Average workweek hours are likely to be unchanged at 34.7hrs. POLICY FOCUS: Fed Chair Powell this week delivered hawkish testimony to lawmakers, where he stated that the economy had continued to strengthen, the labor market had continued to improve, and he sees inflation moving down significantly over the next year. He added that it was appropriate to consider wrapping up the tapering of asset purchases a few months sooner, which participants will discuss at the December FOMC. Powell telegraphing the debate in advance may have taken some of the sting out of incoming economic data -- the rationale being that the Fed is set to accelerate the taper barring any significant deterioration in labor market and inflation data before the December 15th confab -- but Powell still suggested that there was a three-part test for raising rates (economy at maximum employment, inflation at 2%, inflation on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time); Fed officials have attempted to break the link between tapering and eventual rate hikes, but forward-looking markets will be assessing incoming data within the context of the three tests, and will price expectations of the Fed rate hike trajectory accordingly. The inflation test has been met, but Powell said there was still ground to cover to reach maximum employment, though he has previously said that could be achieved by the middle of next year; this week's labor market data, therefore, remains a key part of the eventual rate hike debate. SLACK: Taking an aggregate of the headline since March 2020, there are still some 4.44mln nonfarm payrolls to be recouped to get back to pre-pandemic levels. Goldman Sachs explains that it has been childcare constraints and elevated fiscal transfers which have likely weighed on participation, but these factors should have only a small effect going forward, but it may still take some time for some people to feel comfortable in returning to work, leaving some potential for longer-lasting drags. "We continue to expect that the labor force participation rate will increase in the nearterm, but we have nudged down our participation rate forecast to 1ppt below trend at end-2021 (61.9%) and 0.5ppts below trend at end-2022 (62.1%)," the bank says, "but because jobs are abundant and residual weakness in participation in mid-2022 will likely be due to changes in fiscal policy, wealth, and worker preferences, we expect that the FOMC will judge any participation shortfall that remains at that point to be structural or voluntary and will update their maximum employment goal accordingly." JOBLESS CLAIMS: In the week that traditionally coincides with the BLS survey window for the jobs report, initial jobless claims were little changed at 270k from the prior week's 269k; but since the October jobs report survey window, claims have eased from 351k. Continuing claims, meanwhile, printed 2.049mln in the survey week, down from 2.11mln in the prior week, and lower than the 2.81mln in the October survey period. Pantheon Macroeconomics said that the trend in initial jobless claims remains firmly downward, but the read may not be clear in the holiday season: "Unfortunately the numbers will be volatile over the holidays, as usual, and the next clean read on the data will be in mid-January," and by then, "we think claims will be close to the lows seen in the pre-COVID cycle, about 210K." ADP: The ADP's national employment gauge saw 534k job additions to the US economy in November, more or less in line with the 525k forecast; the prior was revised down trivially by 1k to 570k. ADP's economists noted that the labor market recovery continued to "power through" its challenges last month. "Job gains have eclipsed 15 million since the recovery began, though 5 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels," ADP said, "service providers, which are more vulnerable to the pandemic, have dominated job gains this year." On the pandemic, ADP's economists said it was too early to tell if the Omicron variant could potentially slow the jobs recovery in coming months. BUSINESS SURVEYS: Within the ISM manufacturing report, the employment index rose by 1.3 points to 53.3, remaining in expansion for a third month, with the report noting some indications that the ability to hire is improving, though this is being partially offset by the challenges of turnover and backfilling. "Survey panellists’ companies are still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but there were modest signs of progress," ISM said, "an increasing share of comments noted improvements regarding employment," where "an overwhelming majority of panellists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire." 51% of those surveyed were expressing difficulties in filling positions, with the situation becoming more acute in the month. Meanwhile, the services ISM is released after this month's jobs data, but using the IHS Markit flash November PMIs as a proxy, similar themes have been seen. IHS Markit said that pressure on capacity persisted amid labour shortages, with backlogs of work rising at the second-fastest pace on record. "Firms sought to expand their workforce numbers, but employment growth was held back by challenges finding suitablecandidates." JOB CUTS: Challenger's November report said that announced job cuts had dropped to 14,875 from the 22,822 in October, the lowest monthly total since May 1993. Year-to-date, employers have announced plans to cut 302,918 jobs from their payrolls, the lowest January-November total on record, and vs 2,227,725 vs the same period in 2020. Challenger said that "with the Omicron variant emerging and the unknowns that come with its spread, coupled with the ongoing difficulty hiring and retaining workers, it’s no surprise job cuts are at record lows," adding that "employers are spread thin, planning best- and worst-case scenarios in terms of COVID, while also contending with staff shortages and high demand." Speaking of Goldman, the bank is more optimistic than consensus and estimates nonfarm payrolls rose 575k in November, above the 531k gain in October and higher than the bank's initial forecast of +550k (which is in line with consensus). The bank expects no change in government payrolls, and thus private payrolls will also rise +575k in November (vs. consensus +525k).  According to the bank, the summer expiration of federal unemployment insurance benefits in some states boosted job-finding rates there, and the programs expired in the remaining states on September 5th. Over 4.6mn people have dropped off the unemployment benefit rolls since early September, and we assume 300-400k found new jobs during the November payroll month. Goldman also believes upward revisions to prior-month nonfarm payrolls are fairly likely in tomorrow’s report. The chart below reveals a trend of increasingly large upward revisions over the course of the year, with prior-month job growth revised up on net in each of the last six reports (including +235k with last month’s release). There are two potential explanations, both of which could potentially lead to upward revisions in tomorrow’s report as well. First, some reopening establishments may respond to the BLS survey with a lag (e.g. 1-2 months after reopening). This would result in positive revisions to the not-seasonally-adjusted data that occurred in May, July, August, and September (dark blue bars below). Second, the seasonal factors may be overfitting to the advance releases, mistakenly attributing some of the strong job creation to an evolution of seasonality (light blue lines below). ARGUING FOR A STRONGER REPORT: End of federal enhanced unemployment benefits. The expiration of federal benefits in some states boosted job-finding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The 239k pickup in job growth in October relative to September is consistent with a boost from improved labor supply, and with 4.6 mn individuals no longer receiving benefits versus in early September, this tailwind is expected to continue in tomorrow’s report and beyond. Public health. The Delta wave coincided with a late-summer slowdown in job growth, with leisure and hospitality employment growth slowing sharply in September and October (see Exhibit 1). With covid infection rates falling since September, restaurant seatings on OpenTable have rebounded,and economists expect strong gains in leisure and hospitality and in other services. Job availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between nthe percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—increased to a record-high of 46.9. JOLTS job openings decreased by 191kin September to 10.4mn but remained significantly higher than the pre-pandemic record. Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims fell during the November payroll month, averaging 257k per week vs. 320k in October. Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 283k from survey week to survey week. Education seasonality. Education payrolls weighed on the previous two reports, declining 170k cumulatively in September and October (public and private). This reflects some janitors and support staff declining to return for the fall school year. While schools will eventually fill these open positions, the start-of-year catalyst for a large rise in education jobs has passed, and we are assuming only second derivative improvement in tomorrow’s report, such as a flat reading or a modest gain (mom sa). Employer surveys. The employment components of business surveys generally increased in November. Goldman's services survey employment tracker increased 0.5pt to 55.1 and its manufacturing survey employment tracker increased 0.7pt to 59.6. The Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) increased 4.3pt to 77.2 in November, and the employment component rose 1.6pt to a record-high of 75.6. Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas declined by 10% month-over-month in November after increasing by 18% in October (SA by GS),and remain near their three-decade low. ARGUING FOR A WEAKER REPORT: Supply constraints in retail. Labor supply constraints may have weighed on pre-holiday hiring in the retail industry, for which the BLS seasonal factors anticipate net hiring of around 350k. If so, retail payroll could fall on a seasonally adjusted basis. Vaccine mandates. The vaccine mandates announced by the Biden administration nin September apply to roughly 25mn unvaccinated workers, and may have weighed on November job growth in healthcare and government. While the federal deadline for compliance is generally not until early January and faces an uncertain future in the court system, early adoption in some states may have reduced job growth at the margin in tomorrow’s report. NEUTRAL FACTORS Big Data. High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed. Three of the four measures available this month indicate another sizeable gain. However, the Homebase data that directionally flagged the September payroll missindicates an outright decline ADP. Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 534k in November, in line with consensus expectations for a 525k gain and consistent with strong growth in the ADP panel. Tyler Durden Thu, 12/02/2021 - 21:40.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytDec 3rd, 2021

Colorado Confirms 3rd US Omicron Case, New York Counts Most New COVID Cases Since January

Colorado Confirms 3rd US Omicron Case, New York Counts Most New COVID Cases Since January Update (1600ET): Just hours after officials in Minnesota confirmed the second case of omicron in the US, a local ABC affiliate reports that a third case of the omicron variant has been identified in Colorado.  Colorado Gov. Jared Polis announced Thursday that a case of the omicron variant of the coronavirus has been documented in his state. "Just moments ago, Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment confirmed the first Colorado case of the omicron variant," Polis said in a press conference. "It is somebody who just traveled to southern Africa and returned." More details about the patient will likely be widely disseminated in the press. Despite all the hype around the third confirmed case, Omicron is still a novelty, and few would deny that it's a long way from taking over (although, as we have previously explained, speculation that omicron is more mild than delta might mean that an omicron takeover would ultimately benefit the economy and markets). But whether it's being driven by omicron or not, it appears the winter surge that scientists have been bracing for since...last year's seasonal surge appears to have officially arrived. To wit: New York state on Thursday reported the largest number of daily new cases since January. The Empire State counted 11,300 new COVID cases, the most since January, as dozens of hospitals report nearing capacity once again. Total patients hospitalized for the virus in New York has increased by more than 1K in the span of a month, reaching 3.093K on Wednesday. As of Thursday, 56 hospitals in the state had a bed capacity of 10% or less, including Albany Medical Center Hospital, Mercy Hospital of Buffalo, Long Island Jewish Medical Center and Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City, according to the state health department. Gov. Kathy Hochul famously issued an executive order last week allowing state officials to limit non-essential hospital procedures in an effort to increase bed capacity and address staffing shortages. The order takes effect tomorrow. There were also 49 deaths reported, bringing the state's total to 46,623. Elsewhere, the US has confirmed a second case of the omicron variant in a traveler who recently visited New York City's Javits Center for an anime convention. He was confirmed to have the variant in Minnesota. President Biden unveiled his five-point winter plan to try and avert a surge in cases on Thursday afternoon. * * * After teasing various aspects of his plan to protect Americans from the omciron variant (which is arriving at the start of the latest 'winter wave') while the CDC quietly collects names of travelers who recently visited southern Africa, President Joe Biden is preparing to share his plan, which will impose tighter restrictions on foreign travelers while extending a mask mandate and (potentially) double down on vaccine restrictions for American workers (even as multiple federal judges have rejected the mandate). Biden's comments are expected later on Thursday, but during the early hours of the US session, Germany's outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel and her successor, Olaf Scholz, agreed on a plan to effectively mandate vaccinations by imposing stringent restrictions on Germans who haven't voluntarily gotten the jab. As governments scramble to use omicron as an excuse to crack down on the unvaccinated, makers of vaccines and COVID remedies have continued to share data about their products' efficacy at combating the omicron variant. And unsurprisingly, many of the big-name firms are saying they expect their jabs to "hold up" against the variant. Despite Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel's market-rattling warnings that the first generation of mRNA vaccines - including Moderna's - might need to be retooled in order for them to protect against omicron, a senior Pfizer executive told Bloomberg that the company expects its jabs to offer significant protection against omicron, with more data expected in the coming weeks. "We don’t expect that there will be a significant drop in effectiveness," Ralf Rene Reinert, vice president of vaccines for international developed markets, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. "But again, this is speculation. We will check this. We will have the data in the next couple of weeks." Pfizer has already started working on new versions of its vaccine twice, with the emergence of the beta and delta variants, and concluded both times that the original shot provided good protection, Reinert said. Now its scientists will evaluate whether that’s the case for omicron, Bloomberg reports. "It’s not that we start from scratch," Reinert said. "We know what we have to do." These reassurances have arrived at a critical time: on Wednesday afternoon, the US became the 29th country to identify a case of the omicron variant. A US traveler in the San Francisco area was identified as the first patient known to be infected with the new variant (though it's likely that many others have already been infected, since the variant has been detected in Europe more than two weeks ago). The US has seen a slight uptick in new cases in recent weeks as the 'winter wave' appears to be starting. Source: Reuters The global trend is moving in the same direction as Europe and other continents see rising numbers of cases. Source: Reuters And on the medical front, Pfizer isn't alone: GlaxoSmithKline said Thursday that its COVID antibody treatment looks to be effective against the new omicron variant in early tests. Lab tests of the mutations found in the variant showed the drug is still active against the virus, Glaxo said in a statement on Thursday. GSK is now conducting in vitro experiments to confirm the response against a combination of all the omicron mutations. As a result, Sotrovimab, the GSK antibody treatment, has been approved by the UK's Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency following a "rigorous" review of its safety. Meanwhile, back in South Africa, scientists are tweaking their initial warnings about the variant. One day after reporting a massive surge in new cases (which some dismissed as a quirk resulting from a change in how public health officials count positive cases), scientists for the Diseases Institute are saying that while they expect a surge in cases due to omicron, the intensity of infections should be markedly more mild. Above all, the scientists expect fewer active cases and hospitalizations during this wave. Here are some additional omicron-related headlines from Thursday: Indian officials have seen mild cases in Omicron patients. India reported two cases of the variant. UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid announced the UK secured 54mln additional doses of the Pfizer (PFE) / BioNTech (BNTX) jabs and 60mln additional doses of the Moderna (MRNA) vaccine for the next two years which he said will help the UK to "buy time" with the new variant. South Korea's government is considering coronavirus measures including banning social gatherings and reducing business hours, while it was also reported that South Korea is considering halting its gradual return to normal life as COVID-19 infections rise and it also reported a fresh record daily increase in cases, as well as confirmed its first case of the Omicron variant. The Japanese government will temporarily invalidate special visas issued to foreign nationals who meet certain conditions in an effort to curb the spread of the Omicron variant. Finally, President Biden is planning to include additional measures like forcing insurers to pay for at-home COVID tests as part of his plan for mitigating the 'winter wave' of COVID cases. Private insurers already cover COVID tests administered in doctor’s offices and other medical facilities, but there are now at least eight at-home tests on the US market that can be used by individuals at home. Biden is scheduled to deliver remarks on his 'winter plan' beginning just before 1400ET on Thursday. He will be speaking from Bethesda, Maryland. Tyler Durden Thu, 12/02/2021 - 16:21.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytDec 2nd, 2021

Here are the airlines most and least likely to arrive on time

According to the study, Allegiant and JetBlue trailed the pack with the most flight delays since January 2016. Spirit Airlines cancelled more than 400 flights on August 3 in the third consecutive delay of cancellations and delays.Al Seib / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images A study on airline punctuality found the carriers with the most and least delayed flights. Allegiant was at the bottom of the pack, while Delta was the most on-schedule carrier in the US. Delays can happen to any airline, but data shows some companies manage schedules better than others. If you have flown since the travel boom started over the summer, you may be one of the thousands of passengers who have had their vacation plans interrupted or flat-out ruined due to airlines delaying or canceling flights within hours of departure.Photo by Bob Riha/WireImageThe past few months have been particularly rough due to staffing shortages, maintenance issues, and weather causing operational meltdowns.A customer service agent tries to calm passengers as they form a line that extends outside LAX Terminal 5 Tuesday morning as Spirit Airlines has canceled 313 flights.Al Seib / Los Angeles Times via Getty ImagesIn August, Spirit Airlines canceled over 3,000 flights citing bad weather, system outages, and staffing problems.Spirit Airlines A319 aircraft.Marcus Mainka/ShutterstockSource: InsiderMeanwhile, Southwest Airlines had its own breakdown in October, also blaming weather and staffing shortages, though it says air traffic control issues also played a role. The company has since initiated an aggressive hiring campaign to find more workers, including an employee referral bonus worth $300.Southwest Airlines passengers checking in for their flight.Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/LightRocket/GettySource: Insider, CNBCWith the busy Christmas travel season drawing near, passengers may be worried whether their flight will leave on time or if they will be left waiting for hours to get to their destination. However, a new study from the US Public Interest Research Group may help shed some light on what to expect.Travelers at LAX airport in December 2020Ringo Chiu/ShutterstockSource: US Public Information Research Group Education FundThe PIRG looked at data from the Department of Transportation between January 2016 and August 2021 and determined which of 10 airlines fared the best and worst in terms of on-time departures. The carriers studied were Alaska, Allegiant, America, Delta, Frontier, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit, and United.Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, and Delta Air Lines aircraft at Los Angeles International Airport.Philip Pilosian/Shutterstock.comSource: US Public Information Research Group Education FundAccording to the study, Allegiant and JetBlue trailed the pack with the most flight delays since January 2016. According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, a delayed flight is defined as arriving 15 or more minutes late.Allegiant and JetBlue are the worst airlines in the US for punctuality.Angel DiBilio/Juli Hansen/ShutterstockSource: US Public Information Research Group Education FundIn July 2021, Allegiant had just 51.9% of its flights arrive on schedule. Overall, according to the DOT, Allegiant is the least punctual airline in the US with 77.4% of on-time departures since June 2020. It is also the only carrier to fall below 70% since the start of 2021, with just 69.1% of punctual flights.Allegiant Air A320 aircraft.Daniel J. Macy/ShutterstockSource: US Public Information Research Group Education FundJetBlue is not far behind with just 71.6% of JetBlue flights arriving on schedule since the start of 2021, with 21.4% delayed flights since June 2020. The carrier particularly struggled this summer with an average of 62.3% of on-time arrivals between June and August.JetBlue A320 aircraft.Marcus Mainka/ShutterstockSource: US Public Information Research Group Education FundAccording to the Official Aviation Guide, a global flight data and analytics provider, most people in the aviation industry would say an on-time performance score of 80% or better is "pretty good," meaning four out of five flights were on schedule.Passengers looks at Atlanta departure board.James Kirkikis/ShutterstockSource: Official Aviation GuideAllegiant and JetBlue are the only carriers in the US to not meet the metric since June 2020. There are six carriers that have had 80-89% of flights arrive on schedule since June of last year, including Spirit with 83.2%...Spirit Airlines A320 at Boston airport.Taylor Rains/InsiderSource: US Public Information Research Group Education FundFrontier with 83.6%...A Frontier Airlines Airbus A321.Carlos Yudica/Shutterstock.comSource: US Public Information Research Group Education FundAmerican with 84.9%...American Airlines aircraft.Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty ImagesSource: US Public Information Research Group Education FundUnited with 85.2%...United Airlines at Los Angeles International Airport.Angel DiBilio/ShutterstockSource: US Public Information Research Group Education FundSouthwest with 85.4%.Southwest Airlines aircraft.AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, FileSource: US Public Information Research Group Education FundAnd Alaska with 88.0%.Alaska Airlines aircraft.Thomas Pallini/InsiderSource: US Public Information Research Group Education FundThere are only two airlines that have had an on-time performance of at least 90% since June 2020. OAG says these are the "very best airlines" but "they remain the exception rather than the rule." The top two carriers are Hawaiian with 90.4%...Hawaiian is one of the best carriers for on-time performance.Thiago B Trevisan/ShutterstockSource: US Public Information Research Group Education Fund, Official Aviation GuideAnd Delta with 90.5%, making it the US' most punctual airline, according to DOT data.Delta Air Lines has the best on-time performance of any other US carrier.Thomas Pallini/InsiderSource: US Public Information Research Group Education FundWhile flight delays and cancelations can happen to any airline, some carriers have proven to have fewer disruptions based on the data from the DOT. Delta, in particular, has only fallen below the 80% on-time performance rate during six different months between January 2016 and August 2021.Thomas Pallini/Business InsiderSource: US Public Information Research Group Education FundFor travelers flying out over the busy holiday season, prepare for delays by checking your flight status, staying close to the customer service desk, having a backup plan, and understanding your credit card benefits, like reimbursements.Customer service employee at Houston HobbySouthwest AirlinesSource: InsiderRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderDec 2nd, 2021

Omicron Could Cause Supply Chain Crunch And Inflation To Worsen, OECD Warns

Omicron Could Cause Supply Chain Crunch And Inflation To Worsen, OECD Warns Before the US follows Europe by ordering more lockdowns as a preventative measure to stop the omicron variant from taking hold (although as many have pointed out, that horse appears to have already left the barn), the president's economic advisers should consider this latest warning from - who else? - the OECD. The NGO currently responsible for sheparding the most significant change in global corporate tax policy in a century is now warning that omicron could cause inflationary pressures - already at their highest level in 30 years - and the supply chain crunch that is helping to drive them higher, to intensify. OECD's Laurence Boone As some two dozen countries tighten border restrictions and impose new lockdowns, the OECD fears the new variant could delay the world's return to "normality", and warned that monetary policy-makers must be "cautious". The organization's chief economist added that central banks should try and focus their policy on providing the most vaccines to the most people, something the central bank is constitutionally ill-equipped to do. Maybe they should ask Bill Gates. The warning was issued alongside the OECD's routine release of projections for member states' economies, the organization believes inflationary pressures are expected to peak next year, not this year. Source: FT The OECD left its growth forecasts unchanged from three months ago, but it hiked its inflation projections for the G-20 substantially. Inflation forecasts for 2022 were raised from 3.9% in its September predictions to 4.4% now. The largest per-country increases were in the US and UK, where inflation forecasts for next year rose in both countries from 3.1% to 4.4%. For better or worse, the OECD believes price pressures will be short-lived: it expects inflation in the G-20 to ease back to 3.8% in 2023. But that presumes that major central banks like the Fed will act to keep a lid on price pressures by raising interest rates more quickly than expected, if necessary. Per the FT, OECD chief economist Laurence Boone fears omicron could add to "the already high level of uncertainty and that could be a threat to the recovery, delaying a return to normality or something even worse." She added, for emphasis, that higher prices warranted higher interest rates and a slightly tighter monetary policy. Moreover, she added that there's no "one-size-fits-all" monetary policy, and that emerging market and developed nations might need to go about managing their recoveries in different ways. Finally, she stressed the need for policymakers to clearly communicate their reasons for hiking rates: They must make sure markets and their participants understand that the Fed isn't hiking rates because of supply shortages, but in an effort to push back against broadening price pressures before they become self-reinforcing. The takeaway: the OECD believes that the initial recovery from the pandemic had been faster than expected. But the massive injections of rescue capital by the US and other developed economies (and plenty of developing economies as well), along with the US's refusal to share its vaccine recipes with the developing world, have created "imbalances" throughout the global economy. So, expect the next few years to be even rockier than the last as the US and its European allies are poised to tumble into a deep recession - unless Dr. Anthony Fauci and President Biden succeed in selling omicron (or "omNicron") to the American people as a boogeyman worthy of more lockdowns (and thus more stimulus). Tyler Durden Thu, 12/02/2021 - 05:45.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytDec 2nd, 2021

The Fed Finally Fights Inflation

In his Daily Market Notes report to investors, while commenting on inflation, Louis Navellier wrote: Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Markets are manic crowds and like to panic from time to time. However, our survey this week shows that only 27% of retail investors believe the Omicron variant will cause a market sell off by […] In his Daily Market Notes report to investors, while commenting on inflation, Louis Navellier wrote: if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Markets are manic crowds and like to panic from time to time. However, our survey this week shows that only 27% of retail investors believe the Omicron variant will cause a market sell off by the end of the year. Consumer Confidence Down Viruses mutate and tend to become less deadly over time, just like the Spanish Flu fizzled out within a couple of years.  Although Dr. Anthony Fauci said the U.S. should be prepared to do “anything and everything” to fight the Covid-19 Omicron variant, he also added that it is “too early to say” whether we need new lockdowns or mandates.  However, it would be political suicide to impose new domestic lockdowns or mandates, so I do not expect fears over the Covid-19 Omicron variant to impact consumer confidence and spending.  Although Black Friday sales were reported to be down 28% compared to last year, the Black Friday sales this year started early, so I still expect this holiday shopping season is shaping up to set all-time records.  As an example, Commerce Department reported personal income rose 0.5% in October, while consumer spending rose 1.3%.  The personal savings rate declined to 7.3% in October.  Anytime consumers are willing to incur debt bodes well for both consumer confidence and holiday spending.  I should add that the Atlanta Fed is now estimating 8.6% annual GDP growth for the fourth quarter, which will largely be driven by robust consumer spending. The manufacturing sector also remains strong.  As an example, the Commerce Department announced that durable goods orders rose 0.5% in October.  Durable goods have risen for 15 of the past 18 months since the April 2020 pandemic low.  Core capital goods rose 0.6% in October as business spending rebuilding inventories and consumer spending remained strong.  Year to date, durable goods orders have risen 22.1%, but shipments have risen 13.1%, so businesses continue to have robust order backlogs that have been complicated by component and part shortages. When both consumers and businesses are healthy, it is effectively acting as a “one-two” punch to propel the U.S. economy and the stock market dramatically higher.  The Fed remains dovish and although the monthly quantitative easing has been curtailed from $120 billion per month to $105 billion, the decrease in quantitative easing was lower than many economists anticipated.  Furthermore, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was reappointed for a second four-year term, so the Fed is expected to remain dovish. As a result, the “Goldilocks” environment of low-interest rates and persistent quantitative easing persists.  The Wall Street Journal had a fascinating article about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and how deficit-financed governments, including the U.S., have gone beyond the point of no return without any “fear of debt.”  The fact that all the money pumping in recent years has not driven interest rates significantly higher has lured politicians into compliancy and put many central bankers in a corner where they cannot raise key interest rates too much. As an example that there is no government fear of debt, the infrastructure bill that passed the House of Representatives and is expected to be extensively modified by Senate in 2022, will be largely financed by more MMT, since hiking taxes in an election year is political suicide.  This essentially means that the Biden Administration will be putting more pressure on the Fed to continue its quantitative easing and money printing so it can continue to boost the federal government’s spending. Strong USD The other “force” helping to keep Treasury bonds low is a strong U.S. dollar.  Since late June, the WSJ Dollar index has appreciated almost 6% against major currencies.  The primary reason the U.S. dollar is rallying is due to higher government bond yields than Japan and Europe, plus a strong economic outlook.  Eventually, a stronger U.S. dollar helps to lower the prices on most important goods as well as commodities (since they are priced in U.S. dollars).  So the Fed’s argument that inflation is “transitory” has some merit, since a strong U.S. dollar will help to push down the prices of imported goods and some commodities. In the meantime, the fear of the Covid-19 Omicron variant and reduced international travel has pushed crude oil prices below $70 per barrel.  Natural gas prices are much more dependent on winter weather, since a cold winter can cause natural gas prices to surge, so energy inflation may persist a bit longer.  The good news is most of our inflation is related to food (high natural gas prices impact fertilizer costs), energy and used vehicle prices (due to the shortage of new cars due to the semiconductor chip shortage).  So much of this inflation is expected to eventually moderate by late 2022. The National Association of Realtors this week announced that existing home sales rose 7.5% in October compared to September.  In the past 12 months, existing home sales have declined 1.4%.  Mortgage rates have risen to an average of 3.22% at the end of October according to Mortgage News Daily. There are only 1.25 million homes for sale, which represents a 2.4-month inventory at the current sales pace.  Median home prices are expected to continue to rise due to tight inventories and continued low mortgage rates. The Conference Board on Tuesday announced that its consumer confidence index declined a bit to 109.5 in November.  The present situation component declined to 142.5, while the expectations component fell to 87.6.  This drop in consumer confidence is very minor and consumers were likely perturbed by the prices at the pump and other inflation that is finally starting to moderate as crude oil prices decline on the Covid-19 Omicron fear. Fed Finally Fights Inflation ADP reported on Wednesday that private payrolls rose by 534,000 in November.  I should add that economists are expecting that the Labor Department will be reporting 548,000 new November payroll jobs on Friday.  The labor force participation rate and average hourly wages will be closely scrutinized.  Clearly, everyone that wants a job can get a job in the currently ultra-tight labor market, so I hope the Fed concludes that its unemployment mandate has been fulfilled. Speaking of the Fed, Chairman Jerome Powell, who was just reappointed for a second term, before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday admitted that “The risk of higher inflation has increased.”  Furthermore, Powell also said “To get back to the kind of great labor market we had before the pandemic, we’re going to need … price stability,” then concluded by saying “To get back to the kind of great labor market we had before the pandemic, we’re going to need … price stability.”  Translated from Fedspeak, Chairman Powell basically admitted that the Fed is finally getting ready to pivot from its unemployment mandate to its inflation mandate. Chairman Powell also hinted that the Fed may further reduce its quantitative easing by saying “The economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are high, and it is therefore appropriate in my view to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases … perhaps a few months sooner.”  So the Fed Chairman is starting to lay the groundwork for fighting inflation in the New Year.  Amazingly, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell below 1.5% as the Fed Chairman spoke in front of the Senate Banking Committee. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday announced that its manufacturing index rose to 61.1 in November.  The new orders component rose to 61.5, while the production component surged to 62.2.  The backlog of orders component slipped to 61.9 in November, which is still very healthy since any reading over 50 signals an expansion.  Overall, 13 of the 15 industries that ISM surveyed expanded in November and the manufacturing sector remains very healthy. Heard & Notable Canada taps into its strategic reserves to deal with a massive shortage of maple syrup. Worldwide demand jumped 21% prompting The Canadian group Quebec Maple Syrup Producers to release about 50 million pounds of its strategic maple syrup reserves — about half of the total stockpile. Source: NPR Updated on Dec 1, 2021, 5:09 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkDec 1st, 2021

Will Keurig"s (KDP) Robust Upside Story Continue Despite Woes?

Keurig (KDP) witnesses a solid in-market performance and robust growth across segments, and remains on track with cost-management initiatives. These bode well for the stock's growth in the days ahead. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. KDP displays a remarkable upside story despite the looming effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Strength across its businesses has been the cornerstone of its success. The company witnessed top-line growth in the third quarter of 2021, driven by growth across all business segments, with the Beverage Concentrates and Latin America Beverages segments posting strong double-digit growth.In third-quarter 2021, the company's bottom line met the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while sales surpassed the same. Both metrics improved year over year. Results gained from a solid top-line momentum. KDP witnessed strong market share gains, and in-market performances across categories and brands in the quarter.The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company has a market capitalization of $49.9 billion. Year to date, KDP has gained 6.2% compared with the industry's growth of 3.3%. It also compares favorably against the Consumer Staples sector's decline of 0.3%. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research In the past 30 days, the company's estimates for 2021 earnings per share have been unchanged. For fiscal 2021, its earnings estimates are pegged at $1.60 per share, suggesting 14.3% growth from the year-ago period.Here's Why Keurig Dr Pepper Should Retain the MomentumKeurig is likely to retain its strong performance in the Packaged Beverages segment, attributable to growth in CSDs, particularly Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, Sunkist, A&W, 7UP, and Squirt as well as growth in Polar and Mott's. Favorable volume/mix and higher net price realization have been aiding the segment's sales. Also, strong market share growth is anticipated to keep aiding the segment's performance in the near term.Keurig witnessed a strong in-market performance in the third quarter. The company recorded dollar consumption growth of 6.8% across the cold beverage retail base, including improvement in categories such as CSDs, premium unflavored water, enhanced flavored water, apple juice, apple sauce, and coconut water. Dr Pepper, Sunkist, Canada Dry, A&W and Squirt CSDs, Evian, Bai, Vita Coco, Polar, and Mott's apple juice and apple sauce were the key brands aiding growth.KDP's carbonated soft drinks have been gaining traction, driven by core brand growth and successful innovation, particularly its new-zero sugar variety. Sunkist emerged to become the leading fruit-flavored CSD brand with double-digit consumption growth, followed by the solid performance in Canada Dry, A&W and Squirt. The Dr Pepper brand is also performing well on robust consumption growth.The company's manufactured pods and tracked channels witnessed year-over-year market share growth of 83% in the third quarter. Brewer shipments rose 2.2% in the quarter, while brewer sales rallied 44% on a two-year basis. Management launched Keurig Supreme Plus SMART in July only on its website. The product comes with the MultiStream Technology and features the new BrewID technology. The latest innovation will likely be rolled out in stores in the holiday season.Driven by the impressive third-quarter results, Keurig raised its constant-currency sales view for 2021 and reiterated its adjusted earnings guidance. The company expects constant-currency net sales growth of 7-8% compared with 6-7% growth mentioned earlier. Management continues to expect adjusted earnings growth of 13-15%, backed by improved sales and any increase in profits anticipated to be reinvested in its business.Management is on track with prudent cost-management actions. Investments in marketing, product innovation and technology upgrades are likely to yield results.Hurdles to OvercomeLike others in the industry, Keurig continues to witness headwinds related to input cost inflation, labor shortages, rising transportation and logistics costs, and supply-chain disruptions, which are likely to persist for the rest of the year. Management is currently experiencing higher-than-anticipated inflation. It expects inflation, including the cost of goods sold, transportation, warehousing and logistics, and SG&A, to rise 6% year over year in 2021.Headwinds related to the supply chain affected the non-carb beverage unit's sales in the third quarter of 2021. Alongside these, reduced government stimulus remains concerning.Stocks to WatchWe have highlighted some better-ranked stocks from the broader Consumer Staples space, namely United Natural Foods UNFI, MGP Ingredients MGPI and Hershey HSY.United Natural currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.1%, on average. Shares of UNFI have surged 211.3% year to date.You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for United Natural's current financial-year sales suggests growth of 4.1% and that for earnings per share reflects growth of 5.2% from the year-ago period's reported figure.MGP Ingredients, a Zacks Rank #1 stock, has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 117.6%, on average. The MGPI stock has gained 65.7% year to date.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MGP Ingredients' current financial-year sales and earnings per share suggests growth of 55.5% and 61.4%, respectively, from the year-ago period's reported numbers.Hershey currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.4%, on average. Shares of the company have gained 16.5% in the year-to-date period.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hershey's current financial-year sales and earnings per share suggests growth of 8.9% and 12.6%, respectively, from the year-ago period. HSY has an expected long-term earnings growth rate of 8.5%. Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. You know this company from its past glory days, but few would expect that it's poised for a monster turnaround. Fresh from a successful repositioning and flush with A-list celeb endorsements, it could rival or surpass other recent Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in a little more than 9 months and Nvidia which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Hershey Company The (HSY): Free Stock Analysis Report United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI): Free Stock Analysis Report MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI): Free Stock Analysis Report Keurig Dr Pepper, Inc (KDP): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 1st, 2021

Futures Surge After Powell-Driven Rout Proves To Be "Transitory"

Futures Surge After Powell-Driven Rout Proves To Be "Transitory" Heading into yesterday's painful close to one of the ugliest months since March 2020, which saw a huge forced liquidation rebalance with more than $8 billion in Market on Close orders, we said that while we are seeing "forced selling dump into the close today" this would be followed by "forced Dec 1 buying frontrunning after the close." Forced selling dump into the close today. Forced Dec 1 buying frontrunning after the close — zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 30, 2021 And just as expected, despite yesterday's dramatic hawkish pivot by Powell, who said it was time to retire the word transitory in describing the inflation outlook (the same word the Fed used hundreds of times earlier in 2021 sparking relentless mockery from this website for being clueless as usual) while also saying the U.S. central bank would consider bringing forward plans for tapering its bond buying program at its next meeting in two weeks, the frontrunning of new monthly inflows is in full force with S&P futures rising over 1.2%, Nasdaq futures up 1.3%, and Dow futures up 0.9%, recovering almost all of Tuesday’s decline. The seemingly 'hawkish' comments served as a double whammy for markets, which were already nervous about the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant and its potential to hinder a global economic recovery. "At this point, COVID does not appear to be the biggest long-term Street fear, although it could have the largest impact if the new (or next) variant turns out to be worse than expected," Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for S&P and Dow Jones indices, said in a note. "That honor goes to inflation, which continues to be fed by supply shortages, labor costs, worker shortages, as well as consumers, who have not pulled back." However, new month fund flows proved too powerful to sustain yesterday's month-end dump and with futures rising - and panic receding - safe havens were sold and the 10-year Treasury yield jumped almost 6bps, approaching 1.50%. The gap between yields on 5-year and 30-year Treasuries was around the narrowest since March last year. Crude oil and commodity-linked currencies rebounded. Gold remained just under $1,800 and bitcoin traded just over $57,000. There was more good news on the covid front with a WHO official saying some of the early indications are that most Omicron cases are mild with no severe cases. Separately Merck gained 3.8% in premarket trade after a panel of advisers to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration narrowly voted to recommend the agency authorize the drugmaker's antiviral pill to treat COVID-19. Travel and leisure stocks also rebounded, with cruiseliners Norwegian, Carnival, Royal Caribbean rising more than 2.5% each. Easing of covid fears also pushed airlines and travel stocks higher in premarket trading: Southwest +2.9%, Delta +2.5%, Spirit +2.3%, American +2.2%, United +1.9%, JetBlue +1.3%. Vaccine makers traded modestly lower in pre-market trading after soaring in recent days as Wall Street weighs the widening spread of the omicron variant. Merck & Co. bucked the trend after its Covid-19 pill narrowly gained a key recommendation from advisers to U.S. regulators. Moderna slips 2.1%, BioNTech dips 1.3% and Pfizer is down 0.2%. Elsewhere, Occidental Petroleum led gains among the energy stocks, up 3.2% as oil prices climbed over 4% ahead of OPEC's meeting. Shares of major Wall Street lenders also moved higher after steep falls on Tuesday. Here are some of the other biggest U.S. movers today: Salesforce (CRM US) drops 5.9% in premarket trading after results and guidance missed estimates, with analysts highlighting currency-related headwinds and plateauing growth at the MuleSoft integration software business. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE US) falls 1.3% in premarket after the computer equipment maker’s quarterly results showed the impact of the global supply chain crunch. Analysts noted solid order trends. Merck (MRK US) shares rise 5.8% in premarket after the company’s Covid-19 pill narrowly wins backing from FDA advisers, which analysts say is a sign of progress despite lingering challenges. Chinese electric vehicle makers were higher in premarket, leading U.S. peers up, after Nio, Li and XPeng reported strong deliveries for November; Nio (NIO US) +4%, Li (LI US ) +6%, XPeng (XPEV US) +4.3%. Ardelyx (ARDX US) shares gain as much as 34% in premarket, extending the biotech’s bounce after announcing plans to launch its irritable bowel syndrome treatment Ibsrela in the second quarter. CTI BioPharma (CTIC US) shares sink 18% in premarket after the company said the FDA extended the review period for a new drug application for pacritinib. Allbirds (BIRD US) fell 7.5% postmarket after the low end of the shoe retailer’s 2021 revenue forecast missed the average analyst estimate. Zscaler (ZS US) posted “yet another impressive quarter,” according to BMO. Several analysts increased their price targets for the security software company. Shares rose 4.6% in postmarket. Ambarella (AMBA US) rose 14% in postmarket after forecasting revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Emcore (EMKR US) fell 9% postmarket after the aerospace and communications supplier reported fiscal fourth-quarter Ebitda that missed the average analyst estimate. Box (BOX US) shares gained as much as 10% in postmarket trading after the cloud company raised its revenue forecast for the full year. Meanwhile, the omicron variant continues to spread around the globe, though symptoms so far appear to be relatively mild. The Biden administration plans to tighten rules on travel to the U.S., and Japan said it would bar foreign residents returning from 10 southern African nations. As Bloomberg notes, volatility is buffeting markets as investors scrutinize whether the pandemic recovery can weather diminishing monetary policy support and potential risks from the omicron virus variant. Global manufacturing activity stabilized last month, purchasing managers’ gauges showed Wednesday, and while central banks are scaling back ultra-loose settings, financial conditions remain favorable in key economies. “The reality is hotter inflation coupled with a strong economic backdrop could end the Fed’s bond buying program as early as the first quarter of next year,” Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management, said in emailed comments. “With potential changes in policy on the horizon, market participants should expect additional market volatility in this uncharted territory.” Looking ahead, Powell is back on the Hill for day 2, and is due to testify before a House Financial Services Committee hybrid hearing at 10 a.m. ET. On the economic data front, November readings on U.S. private payrolls and manufacturing activity will be closely watched later in the day to gauge the health of the American economy. Investors are also awaiting the Fed's latest "Beige Book" due at 2:00 p.m. ET. On the economic data front, November readings on U.S. private payrolls and manufacturing activity will be closely watched later in the day to gauge the health of the American economy. European equities soared more than 1.2%, with travel stocks and carmakers leading broad-based gain in the Stoxx Europe 600 index, all but wiping out Tuesday’s decline that capped only the third monthly loss for the benchmark this year.  Travel, miners and autos are the strongest sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Proximus shares rise as much as 6.5% after the company said it’s started preliminary talks regarding a potential deal involving TeleSign, with a SPAC merger among options under consideration. Dr. Martens gains as much as 4.6% to the highest since Sept. 8 after being upgraded to overweight from equal- weight at Barclays, which says the stock’s de-rating is overdone. Husqvarna advances as much as 5.3% after the company upgraded financial targets ahead of its capital markets day, including raising the profit margin target to 13% from 10%. Wizz Air, Lufthansa and other travel shares were among the biggest gainers as the sector rebounded after Tuesday’s losses; at a conference Wizz Air’s CEO reiterated expansion plans. Wizz Air gains as much as 7.5%, Lufthansa as much as 6.8% Elis, Accor and other stocks in the French travel and hospitality sector also rise after the country’s government pledged to support an industry that’s starting to get hit by the latest Covid-19 wave. Pendragon climbs as much as 6.5% after the car dealer boosted its outlook after the company said a supply crunch in the new vehicle market wasn’t as bad as it had anticipated. UniCredit rises as much as 3.6%, outperforming the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, after Deutsche Bank added the stock to its “top picks” list alongside UBS, and Bank of Ireland, Erste, Lloyds and Societe Generale. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also soared, snapping a three-day losing streak, led by energy and technology shares, as traders assessed the potential impact from the omicron coronavirus variant and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish pivot. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.3% Wednesday. South Korea led regional gains after reporting strong export figures, which bolsters growth prospects despite record domestic Covid-19 cases. Hong Kong stocks also bounced back after falling Tuesday to their lowest level since September 2020. Asia’s stock benchmark rebounded from a one-year low, though sentiment remained clouded by lingering concerns on the omicron strain and Fed’s potentially faster tapering pace. Powell earlier hinted that the U.S. central bank will accelerate its asset purchases at its meeting later this month.  “A faster taper in the U.S. is still dependent on omicron not causing a big setback to the outlook in the next few weeks,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital, adding that he expects the Fed’s policy rate “will still be low through next year, which should still enable good global growth which will benefit Asia.” Chinese equities edged up after the latest economic data showed manufacturing activity remained at relatively weak levels in November, missing economists’ expectations. Earlier, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said he’s fully confident in the nation’s economic growth in 2022 Japanese stocks rose, overcoming early volatility as traders parsed hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Electronics and auto makers were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which closed 0.4% higher after swinging between a gain of 0.9% and loss of 0.7% in the morning session. Daikin and Fanuc were the largest contributors to a 0.4% rise in the Nikkei 225, which similarly fluctuated. The Topix had dropped 4.8% over the previous three sessions due to concerns over the omicron virus variant. The benchmark fell 3.6% in November, its worst month since July 2020. “The market’s tolerance to risk is quite low at the moment, with people responding in a big way to the smallest bit of negative news,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management in Tokyo. “But the decline in Japanese equities was far worse than those of other developed markets, so today’s market may find a bit of calm.” U.S. shares tumbled Tuesday after Powell said officials should weigh removing pandemic support at a faster pace and retired the word “transitory” to describe stubbornly high inflation In rates, bonds trade heavy, as yield curves bear-flatten. Treasuries extended declines with belly of the curve cheapening vs wings as traders continue to price in additional rate-hike premium over the next two years. Treasury yields were cheaper by up to 5bp across belly of the curve, cheapening 2s5s30s spread by ~5.5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 1.48%, cheaper by ~4bp, while gilts lag by additional 2bp in the sector. The short-end of the gilt curve markedly underperforms bunds and Treasuries with 2y yields rising ~11bps near 0.568%. Peripheral spreads widen with belly of the Italian curve lagging. The flattening Treasury yield curve “doesn’t suggest imminent doom for the equity market in and of itself,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., said on Bloomberg Television. “Alarm bells go off in terms of recession” when the curve gets closer to inverting, she said. In FX, the Turkish lira had a wild session, offered in early London trade before fading. USD/TRY dropped sharply to lows of 12.4267 on reports of central bank FX intervention due to “unhealthy price formations” before, once again, fading TRY strength after comments from Erdogan. The rest of G-10 FX is choppy; commodity currencies retain Asia’s bid tone, havens are sold: the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inched lower, as the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers. The euro moved in a narrow range and Bund yields followed U.S. yields higher. The pound advanced as risk sentiment stabilized with focus still on news about the omicron variant. The U.K. 10-, 30-year curve flirted with inversion as gilts flattened, with money markets betting on 10bps of BOE tightening this month for the first time since Friday. The Australian and New Zealand dollars advanced as rising commodity prices fuel demand from exporters and leveraged funds. Better-than-expected growth data also aided the Aussie, with GDP expanding by 3.9% in the third quarter from a year earlier, beating the 3% estimated by economists. Austrian lawmakers extended a nationwide lockdown for a second 10-day period to suppress the latest wave of coronavirus infections before the Christmas holiday period.  The yen declined by the most among the Group-of-10 currencies as Powell’s comments renewed focus on yield differentials. 10-year yields rose ahead of Thursday’s debt auction In commodities, crude futures rally. WTI adds over 4% to trade on a $69-handle, Brent recovers near $72.40 after Goldman said overnight that oil had gotten extremely oversold. Spot gold fades a pop higher to trade near $1,785/oz. Base metals trade well with LME copper and nickel outperforming. Looking at the day ahead, once again we’ll have Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen appearing, this time before the House Financial Services Committee. In addition to that, the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book, and BoE Governor Bailey is also speaking. On the data front, the main release will be the manufacturing PMIs from around the world, but there’s also the ADP’s report of private payrolls for November in the US, the ISM manufacturing reading in the US as well for November, and German retail sales for October. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.2% to 4,620.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.0% to 467.58 MXAP up 0.9% to 191.52 MXAPJ up 1.1% to 626.09 Nikkei up 0.4% to 27,935.62 Topix up 0.4% to 1,936.74 Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 23,658.92 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,576.89 Sensex up 1.0% to 57,656.51 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,235.85 Kospi up 2.1% to 2,899.72 Brent Futures up 4.2% to $72.15/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,778.93 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.98 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.31% Euro down 0.1% to $1.1326 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Thursday, the first direct contact between officials of the two countries in weeks as tensions grow amid western fears Russia may be planning to invade Ukraine Oil rebounded from a sharp drop on speculation that recent deep losses were excessive and OPEC+ may on Thursday decide to pause hikes in production, with the abrupt reversal fanning already- elevated volatility The EU is set to recommend that member states review essential travel restrictions on a daily basis in the wake of the omicron variant, according to a draft EU document seen by Bloomberg China is planning to ban companies from going public on foreign stock markets through variable interest entities, according to people familiar with the matter, closing a loophole long used by the country’s technology industry to raise capital from overseas investors Manufacturing activity in Asia outside China stabilized last month amid easing lockdown and border restrictions, setting the sector on course to face a possible new challenge from the omicron variant of the coronavirus Germany urgently needs stricter measures to check a surge in Covid-19 infections and protect hospitals from a “particularly dangerous situation,” according to the head of the country’s DIVI intensive-care medicine lobby. A more detailed breakdown of global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mostly positive as regional bourses atoned for the prior day’s losses that were triggered by Omicron concerns, but with some of the momentum tempered by recent comments from Fed Chair Powell and mixed data releases including the miss on Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was led lower by underperformance in consumer stocks and with utilities also pressured as reports noted that Shell and Telstra’s entrance in the domestic electricity market is set to ignite fierce competition and force existing players to overhaul their operations, although the losses in the index were cushioned following the latest GDP data which showed a narrower than feared quarterly contraction in Australia’s economy. Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) was on the mend after yesterday’s sell-off with the index helped by favourable currency flows and following a jump in company profits for Q3, while the KOSPI (+2.1%) was also boosted by strong trade data. Hang Seng (+0.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) were somewhat varied as a tech resurgence in Hong Kong overcompensated for the continued weakness in casinos stocks amid ongoing SunCity woes which closed all VIP gaming rooms in Macau after its Chairman's recent arrest, while the mood in the mainland was more reserved after a PBoC liquidity drain and disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data which fell short of estimates and slipped back into contraction territory. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid the gains in Japanese stocks and after the pullback in global fixed income peers in the aftermath of Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish comments, while a lack of BoJ purchases further contributed to the subdued demand for JGBs. Top Asian News Asia Stocks Bounce Back from One-Year Low Despite Looming Risks Gold Swings on Omicron’s Widening Spread, Inflation Worries Shell Sees Hedge Funds Moving to LNG, Supporting Higher Prices Abe Warns China Invading Taiwan Would Be ‘Economic Suicide’ Bourses in Europe are firmer across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.6%; Stoxx 600 +1.1%) as the positive APAC sentiment reverberated into European markets. US equity futures are also on the front foot with the cyclical RTY (+2.0%) outpacing its peers: ES (+1.2%), NQ (+1.5%), YM (+0.8%). COVID remains a central theme for the time being as the Omicron variant is observed for any effects of concern – which thus far have not been reported. Analysts at UBS expect market focus to shift away from the variant and more towards growth and earnings. The analysts expect Omicron to fuse into the ongoing Delta outbreak that economies have already been tackling. Under this scenario, the desk expects some of the more cyclical markets and sectors to outperform. The desk also flags two tails risks, including an evasive variant and central bank tightening – particularly after Fed chair Powell’s commentary yesterday. Meanwhile, BofA looks for an over-10% fall in European stocks next year. Sticking with macro updates, the OECD, in their latest economic outlook, cut US, China, Eurozone growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022, with Omicron cited as a factor. Back to trade, broad-based gains are seen across European cash markets. Sectors hold a clear cyclical bias which consists of Travel & Leisure, Basic Resources, Autos, Retail and Oil & Gas as the top performers – with the former bolstered by the seemingly low appetite for coordination on restrictions and measures at an EU level – Deutsche Lufthansa (+6%) and IAG (+5.1%) now reside at the top of the Stoxx 600. The other side of the spectrum sees the defensive sectors – with Healthcare, Household Goods, Food & Beverages as the straddlers. In terms of induvial movers, German-listed Adler Group (+22%) following a divestment, whilst Blue Prism (+1.7%) is firmer after SS&C raised its offer for the Co. Top European News Wizz Says Travelers Are Booking at Shorter and Shorter Notice Turkey Central Bank Intervenes in FX Markets to Stabilize Lira Gold Swings on Omicron’s Widening Spread, Inflation Worries Former ABG Sundal Collier Partner Starts Advisory Firm In FX, the Dollar remains mixed against majors, but well off highs prompted by Fed chair Powell ditching transitory from the list of adjectives used to describe inflation and flagging that a faster pace of tapering will be on the agenda at December’s FOMC. However, the index is keeping tabs on the 96.000 handle and has retrenched into a tighter 95.774-96.138 range, for the time being, as trade remains very choppy and volatility elevated awaiting clearer medical data and analysis on Omicron to gauge its impact compared to the Delta strain and earlier COVID-19 variants. In the interim, US macro fundamentals might have some bearing, but the bar is high before NFP on Friday unless ADP or ISM really deviate from consensus or outside the forecast range. Instead, Fed chair Powell part II may be more pivotal if he opts to manage hawkish market expectations, while the Beige Book prepared for next month’s policy meeting could also add some additional insight. NZD/AUD/CAD/GBP - Broad risk sentiment continues to swing from side to side, and currently back in favour of the high beta, commodity and cyclical types, so the Kiwi has bounced firmly from worst levels on Tuesday ahead of NZ terms of trade, the Aussie has pared a chunk of its declines with some assistance from a smaller than anticipated GDP contraction and the Loonie is licking wounds alongside WTI in advance of Canadian building permits and Markit’s manufacturing PMI. Similarly, Sterling has regained some poise irrespective of relatively dovish remarks from BoE’s Mann and a slender downward revision to the final UK manufacturing PMI. Nzd/Usd is firmly back above 0.6800, Aud/Usd close to 0.7150 again, Usd/Cad straddling 1.2750 and Cable hovering on the 1.3300 handle compared to circa 0.6772, 0.7063, 1.2837 and 1.3195 respectively at various fairly adjacent stages yesterday. JPY/EUR/CHF - All undermined by the aforementioned latest upturn in risk appetite or less angst about coronavirus contagion, albeit to varying degrees, as the Yen retreats to retest support sub-113.50, Euro treads water above 1.1300 and Franc straddles 0.9200 after firmer than forecast Swiss CPI data vs a dip in the manufacturing PMI. In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are recovering following yesterday’s COVID and Powell-induced declines in the run-up to the OPEC meetings later today. The complex has also been underpinned by the reduced prospects of coordinated EU-wide restrictions, as per the abandonment of the COVID video conference between EU leaders. However, OPEC+ will take centre stage over the next couple of days, with a deluge of source reports likely as OPEC tests the waters. The case for OPEC+ to pause the planned monthly relaxation of output curbs by 400k BPD has been strengthening. There have been major supply and demand developments since the prior meeting. The recent emergence of the Omicron COVID variant and coordinated release of oil reserves have shifted the balance of expectations relative to earlier in the month (full Newsquawk preview available in the Research Suite). In terms of the schedule, the OPEC meeting is slated for 13:00GMT/08:00EST followed by the JTC meeting at 15:00GMT/10:00EST, whilst tomorrow sees the JMMC meeting at 12:00GMT/07:00EST; OPEC+ meeting at 13:00GMT/08:00EST. WTI Jan has reclaimed a USD 69/bbl handle (vs USD 66.20/bbl low) while Brent Feb hovers around USD 72.50/bbl (vs low USD 69.38/bbl) at the time of writing. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver trade with modest gains and largely in tandem with the Buck. Spot gold failed to sustain gains above the cluster of DMAs under USD 1,800/oz (100 DMA at USD 1,792/oz, 200 DMA at USD 1,791/oz, and 50 DMA at USD 1,790/oz) – trader should be aware of the potential for a technical Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA). Turning to base metals, copper is supported by the overall risk appetite, with the LME contract back above USD 9,500/t. Overnight, Chinese coking coal and coke futures rose over 5% apiece, with traders citing disrupted supply from Mongolia amid the COVID outbreak in the region. US Event Calendar 7am: Nov. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.8% 8:15am: Nov. ADP Employment Change, est. 525,000, prior 571,000 9:45am: Nov. Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 59.1, prior 59.1 10am: Oct. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.4%, prior -0.5% 10am: Nov. ISM Manufacturing, est. 61.2, prior 60.8 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Nov. Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 13.4m, prior 13m Central Banks 10am: Powell, Yellen Testify Before House Panel on CARES Act Relief DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap If you’re under 10 and reading this there’s a spoiler alert today in this first para so please skip beyond and onto the second. Yes my heart broke a little last night as my little 6-year old Maisie said to me at bedtime that “Santa isn’t real is he Daddy?”. I lied (I think it’s a lie) and said yes he was. I made up an elaborate story about how when we renovated our 100 year old house we deliberately kept the chimney purely to let Santa come down it once a year. Otherwise why would we have kept it? She then asked what about her friend who lives in a flat? I tried to bluff my way through it but maybe my answer sounded a bit like my answers as to what will happen with Omicron. I’ll test both out on clients later to see which is more convincing. Before we get to the latest on the virus, given it’s the start of the month, we’ll shortly be publishing our November performance review looking at how different assets fared over the month just gone and YTD. It arrived late on but Omicron was obviously the dominant story and led to some of the biggest swings of the year so far. It meant that oil (which is still the top performer on a YTD basis) was the worst performer in our monthly sample, with WTI and Brent seeing their worst monthly performances since the initial wave of market turmoil over Covid back in March 2020. And at the other end, sovereign bonds outperformed in November as Omicron’s emergence saw investors push back the likelihood of imminent rate hikes from central banks. So what was shaping up to be a good month for risk and a bad one for bonds flipped around in injury time. Watch out for the report soon from Henry. Back to yesterday now, and frankly the main takeaway was that markets were desperate for any piece of news they could get their hands on about the Omicron variant, particularly given the lack of proper hard data at the moment. The morning started with a sharp selloff as we discussed at the top yesterday, as some of the more optimistic noises from Monday were outweighed by that FT interview, whereby Moderna’s chief executive had said that the existing vaccines wouldn’t be as effective against the new variant. Then we had some further negative news from Regeneron, who said that analysis and modelling of the Omicron mutations indicated that its antibody drug may not be as effective, but that they were doing further analysis to confirm this. However, we later got some comments from a University of Oxford spokesperson, who said that there wasn’t any evidence so far that vaccinations wouldn’t provide high levels of protection against severe disease, which coincided with a shift in sentiment early in the European afternoon as equities begun to pare back their losses. The CEO of BioNTech and the Israeli health minister expressed similar sentiments, noting that vaccines were still likely to protect against severe disease even among those infected by Omicron, joining other officials encouraging people to get vaccinated or get booster shots. Another reassuring sign came in an update from the EU’s ECDC yesterday, who said that all of the 44 confirmed cases where information was available on severity “were either asymptomatic or had mild symptoms.” After the close, the FDA endorsed Merck’s antiviral Covid pill. While it’s not clear how the pill interacts with Omicron, the proliferation of more Covid treatments is still good news as we head into another winter. The other big piece of news came from Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, where the main headline was his tapering comment that “It is appropriate to consider wrapping up a few months sooner.” So that would indicate an acceleration in the pace, which would be consistent with the view from our US economists that we’ll see a doubling in the pace of reductions at the December meeting that’s only two weeks from today. The Fed Chair made a forceful case for a faster taper despite lingering Omicron uncertainties, noting inflation is likely to stay elevated, the labour market has improved without a commensurate increase in labour supply (those sidelined because of Covid are likely to stay there), spending has remained strong, and that tapering was a removal of accommodation (which the economy doesn’t need more of given the first three points). Powell took pains to stress the risk of higher inflation, going so far as to ‘retire’ the use of the term ‘transitory’ when describing the current inflation outlook. So team transitory have seemingly had the pitch taken away from them mid match. The Chair left an exit clause that this outlook would be informed by incoming inflation, employment, and Omicron data before the December FOMC meeting. A faster taper ostensibly opens the door to earlier rate hikes and Powell’s comment led to a sharp move higher in shorter-dated Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield up +8.1bps on the day, having actually been more than -4bps lower when Powell began speaking. They were as low as 0.44% then and got as high as 0.57% before closing at 0.56%. 2yr yields have taken another leg higher overnight, increasing +2.5bps to 0.592%. Long-end yields moved lower though and failed to back up the early day moves even after Powell, leading to a major flattening in the yield curve on the back of those remarks, with the 2s10s down -13.7bps to 87.3bps, which is its flattest level since early January. Overnight 10yr yields are back up +3bps but the curve is only a touch steeper. My 2 cents on the yield curve are that the 2s10s continues to be my favourite US recession indicator. It’s worked over more cycles through history than any other. No recession since the early 1950s has occurred without the 2s10s inverting. But it takes on average 12-18 months from inversion to recession. The shortest was the covid recession at around 7 months which clearly doesn’t count but I think we were very late cycle in early 2020 and the probability of recession in the not too distant future was quite high but we will never know.The shortest outside of that was around 9 months. So with the curve still at c.+90bps we are moving in a more worrying direction but I would still say 2023-24 is the very earliest a recession is likely to occur (outside of a unexpected shock) and we’ll need a rapid flattening in 22 to encourage that. History also suggests markets tend to ignore the YC until it’s too late. So I wouldn’t base my market views in 22 on the yield curve and recession signal yet. However its something to look at as the Fed seemingly embarks on a tightening cycle in the months ahead. Onto markets and those remarks from Powell (along with the additional earlier pessimism about Omicron) proved incredibly unhelpful for equities yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-1.90%) giving up the previous day’s gains to close at its lowest level in over a month. It’s hard to overstate how broad-based this decline was, as just 7 companies in the entire S&P moved higher yesterday, which is the lowest number of the entire year so far and the lowest since June 11th, 2020, when 1 company ended in the green. Over in Europe it was much the same story, although they were relatively less affected by Powell’s remarks, and the STOXX 600 (-0.92%) moved lower on the day as well. Overnight in Asia, stocks are trading higher though with the KOSPI (+2.02%), Hang Seng (+1.40%), the Nikkei (+0.37%), Shanghai Composite (+0.11%) and CSI (+0.09%) all in the green. Australia’s Q3 GDP contracted (-1.9% qoq) less than -2.7% consensus while India’s Q3 GDP grew at a firm +8.4% year-on-year beating the +8.3% consensus. In China the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November came in at 49.9 against a 50.6 consensus. Futures markets are indicating a positive start to markets in US & Europe with the S&P 500 (+0.73%) and DAX (+0.44%) trading higher again. Back in Europe, there was a significant inflation story amidst the other headlines above, since Euro Area inflation rose to its highest level since the creation of the single currency, with the flash estimate for November up to +4.9% (vs. +4.5% expected). That exceeded every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg, and core inflation also surpassed expectations at +2.6% (vs. +2.3% expected), again surpassing the all-time high since the single currency began. That’s only going to add to the pressure on the ECB, and yesterday saw Germany’s incoming Chancellor Scholz say that “we have to do something” if inflation doesn’t ease. European sovereign bonds rallied in spite of the inflation reading, with those on 10yr bunds (-3.1bps), OATs (-3.5bps) and BTPs (-0.9bps) all moving lower. Peripheral spreads widened once again though, and the gap between Italian and German 10yr yields closed at its highest level in just over a year. Meanwhile governments continued to move towards further action as the Omicron variant spreads, and Greece said that vaccinations would be mandatory for everyone over 60 soon, with those refusing having to pay a monthly €100 fine. Separately in Germany, incoming Chancellor Scholz said that there would be a parliamentary vote on the question of compulsory vaccinations, saying to the Bild newspaper in an interview that “My recommendation is that we don’t do this as a government, because it’s an issue of conscience”. In terms of other data yesterday, German unemployment fell by -34k in November (vs. -25k expected). Separately, the November CPI readings from France at +3.4% (vs. +3.2% expected) and Italy at +4.0% (vs. +3.3% expected) surprised to the upside as well. In the US, however, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure in November fell to its lowest since February at 109.5 (vs. 110.9 expected), and the MNI Chicago PMI for November fell to 61.8 9vs. 67.0 expected). To the day ahead now, and once again we’ll have Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen appearing, this time before the House Financial Services Committee. In addition to that, the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book, and BoE Governor Bailey is also speaking. On the data front, the main release will be the manufacturing PMIs from around the world, but there’s also the ADP’s report of private payrolls for November in the US, the ISM manufacturing reading in the US as well for November, and German retail sales for October. Tyler Durden Wed, 12/01/2021 - 07:47.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 1st, 2021

Server ODMs expect server component shortage to persist through 2H22

Quanta Cloud Technology (QCT), a subsidiary of Quanta Computer specializing in the manufacture of datacenter servers, expects chip shortages, particularly the shortage of power management ICs (PMIC), to persist through the second half of 2022......»»

Category: topSource: digitimesNov 30th, 2021

Retailers Open Pop-Up Container Yards To Bypass Savannah Port Jams

Retailers Open Pop-Up Container Yards To Bypass Savannah Port Jams By Eric Kulisch of American Shipper, Overflow lots set up by large retailers this month as temporary staging areas for imported containers have helped bring down congestion levels at the Port of Savannah, and Georgia officials expect further efficiency gains with this week’s opening of two more port-sponsored pop-up sites. The Georgia Ports Authority, in partnership with the Norfolk Southern, will start accepting loaded containers on Monday at the freight railroad’s nearby Dillon Yard and later this week will begin routing shipping units to a general aviation airport in Statesboro, located about 60 miles west of Savannah, Chief Operating Officer Ed McCarthy told FreightWaves. Moving containers to off-port properties is part of the recently announced South Atlantic Supply Chain Relief Program designed to reclaim space at the Garden City Terminal, where container crowding is making it difficult for vessels to unload and for stacking equipment and trucks to maneuver. In October, Savannah handled an all-time record of 504,350 twenty-foot equivalent units for a single month, an increase of 8.7% over October 2020. The volume surpassed the GPA’s previous record of 498,000 TEUs set in March. Port officials began testing the Dillon Yard and Statesboro locations last week after renting top loaders for stacking and truck transfers, installing computer lines in order to track containers entering the gate with radio frequency identification, and laying extra pavement at the rail facility, McCarthy said.  Four or five more pop-up container facilities are scheduled to open around Georgia by mid-December and the port authority is talking with freight railroad CSX about an auxiliary storage site in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, the COO said in an interview.  The sites are mini-versions of inland ports where containers are brought to strategically located sites by intermodal rail, shortening the distance trucks have to travel to collect imports or drop off exports and reducing traffic in and around busy seaports. The concept essentially brings the seaport closer to manufacturing, agriculture and population centers.  The GPA currently operates a large inland intermodal rail terminal in Murray County, Georgia, as well as an inland dry bulk facility. Construction on a second inland rail link for containerized cargo in northeast Georgia is scheduled to begin in April and be completed by mid- to late 2024, spokesman Robert Morris said. South Carolina also operates two inland ports, Virginia has one in the northwestern part of the state and the Port of Long Beach in California recently launched an effort to quickly flow cargo to Utah for distribution by converting truck traffic to rail. Several users of the Port of Savannah this month have opened pop-up yards of their own where they can directly flow import containers to avoid waiting for longshoremen to sort through shipping units for their cargo and then retrieve them when space opens at one of their distribution centers. Each of the private spillover yards can accommodate 2,000 to 3,000 containers.  “We’re starting to see some of our customer base do their own pop-ups. They’re contracting with some folks who have capabilities in the Savannah region and … taking their long-term destiny in their own hands,” McCarthy said in an interview. The Rocky Mount intermodal facility being discussed with CSX will probably be used as an alternative storage location for empty containers. It could be running by early December, the COO said. Whether containers are diverted from other locations or whether empties are loaded up in Savannah and sent there remains to be determined.  The Biden administration, which is focused on alleviating a nationwide supply chain crisis that is creating product shortages and contributing to inflation, helped fund the GPA’s emergency storage yards by reallocating $8 million in federal funds. Additional flexibility recently granted by the Department of Transportation allows port authorities to redirect cost savings from previous projects funded by port infrastructure grants toward mitigating truck, rail and terminal delays that are preventing the swift evacuation of containers from ports. White House port envoy John Porcari, the liaison between industry and the White House Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force, said the government is looking to create more inland ports.  “We’re encouraging other ports to do the same [thing as Savannah.] I think you’ll see a generation of projects in the short term around the country that will help maximize the existing on-dock capacity through interior pop-up sites,” Porcari said on Bloomberg’s “Odd Lots” podcast last week.  “The fundamental issue is that the docks themselves are such valuable pieces of real estate that you don’t want the containers dwelling there a second longer than you have to. You want to get them to the interior or back on ships to their target markets overseas,” he said. Better Fluidity Improvements in rail handling, a dip in import volumes in line with seasonal patterns and the customer pop-up yards have combined to improve cargo flow and reduce the number of ships waiting for a berth at the Port of Savannah, McCarthy said.  The port authority released an operations update last week showing the average dwell time for a container moving by rail after vessel unloading is two days, and that the average resting time within the terminal for import and export containers is about eight days, down from 11 and 10 days, respectively. The backlog of empty containers remains a problem, with boxes lingering an average of 17.8 days. The improved performance is helping personnel work vessels faster and reduce Savannah’s cargo backlog. The number of ships at anchor in the Atlantic Ocean declined to 15 as of Monday morning from 22 two weeks ago, Morris said. There were 24 container vessels at anchor in mid-October. Total containers on the terminal also declined 13% and are down 16% from the peak of 85,000, according to the update. McCarthy said there are about 225,000 TEUs currently on the water, a 10% to 12% reduction from early November that indicates “we are over the hump of the peak season.” Last week, ocean carrier CMA CGM said its Liberty Bridge service from northern Europe to the U.S. East Coast would temporarily skip Savannah due to the congestion. According to the revised schedule, seven stops between late December and early February will be omitted. Shippers can send Savannah cargo to the Port of Charleston, South Carolina, until then, it said. The GPA also noted that providers have increased the supply of chassis, the wheeled frames on which containers rest when pulled by truck, and are increasingly able to repair more chassis to help meet demand for cargo deliveries. Mason Rail Terminal expansion. (Source: Georgia Ports Authority) The Port of Savannah increased its near-dock rail capacity by 30% with the commissioning two weeks ago of a second set of nine tracks at the Mason Mega Rail Terminal. The port moved 550,000 containers by rail last year and now has more than 2 million TEUs of capacity with an eye toward future growth. The ability to discharge cargo from a vessel and ship it out by train in less than two days is best in class for the U.S., McCarthy noted. A huge new container yard will come online in phases starting in December and culminate with about 820,000 TEUs of additional capacity by March. The project includes rubber-tired gantry cranes for sorting, stacking and transferring containers. Construction of another berth is underway and scheduled to be complete in 2023. Meanwhile, the federal dredging project to deepen the Savannah River to 47 feet (54 feet at high tide) is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2022. It has already allowed vessels with deeper drafts to enter the port, McCarthy said. The deepening translates to about 200 extra loaded containers per foot and a total of 1,000 per vessel when the project is finished. Tyler Durden Tue, 11/30/2021 - 19:45.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 30th, 2021