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Massive Saharan Dust Plume Over Atlantic, Headed For US By Weekend 

Massive Saharan Dust Plume Over Atlantic, Headed For US By Weekend .....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytMay 18th, 2022

American Airlines canceled another 436 flights on Monday following its Halloween weekend chaos

The airline said it expects its flights to stabilize and that it is beefing up hiring to avoid similar situations during the upcoming holiday season. An American Airlines pilot. COOPER NEILL/AFP/Getty American Airlines kicked off the week by canceling 436 flights as of midday Monday. Since Friday, American has canceled over 2,000 flights and delayed about 1,500. American Airlines said the cancellations happened because of staff shortages and bad weather. American Airlines kicked off its Monday morning by canceling 250 flights by 4:30 a.m. Central Time, an American spokesperson told Insider. Since then, another 186 have been canceled, bringing the airline's total cancellations to 436, according to American. FlightAware pegs the cancellations at 15% of its total operations, but American told Insider it is only about 8%.Monday's cancellations came after the carrier faced a Halloween weekend full of chaos due to bad weather and staff shortages.American Airlines has canceled over 2,000 flights since Friday, including 343 flights on Friday, 548 flights on Saturday, 1,060 flights on Sunday, and 436 on Monday, bringing the total number to 2,387. American told Insider that Sunday's mass cancellations accounted for about 21% of the airline's operation, though FlightAware reported 36%. The cancellations impacted over 136,000 customers, according to a company document viewed by CNBC. There were also nearly 900 delayed flights between Friday and Sunday, with another 541 delayed as of 3:30 p.m. Central Time Monday, according to FlightAware. "We expect considerable improvement beginning today with some residual impact from the weekend," the American Airlines spokesperson told Insider on Monday morning.American's chief operating officer blamed strong winds at its massive Dallas Fort-Worth hub for a large portion of weekend cancellations, saying that because of the weather, only two runways were available for use as opposed to the usual five.The issues at Dallas Fort-Worth subsequently left employees in the wrong locations, unable to catch the correct flights.Despite the trouble, COO David Seymour on Saturday told employees in a letter seen by Insider that most fliers were being rebooked the same day. In order to avoid a similar situation as holiday travel ramps up, 1,800 flight attendants are set to return from leave on November 1, with an additional group headed back to work on December 1. The company has been requiring cabin crews to work extra shifts despite contract rules, according to a memo sent to members of American's flight attendant union, the Association of Professional Flight Attendants. "The fact that there is inadequate staffing to cover the operation as it is currently structured is not the fault of flight attendants," union leadership said in the letter.American also plans to hire 600 more employees by the end of 2021, including pilots and airport crew, Seymour said in the letter.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 1st, 2021

American Airlines cancels another 250 flights on Monday following Halloween weekend chaos

The airline said it expects its flights to stabilize and that it is beefing up hiring to avoid similar situations during the upcoming holiday season. An American Airlines pilot. COOPER NEILL/AFP/Getty American Airlines kicked off the week by canceling 250 flights early Monday morning. This comes after a chaotic Halloween weekend with nearly 2,000 flights canceled due to staff shortages and bad weather. To avoid such cancelations during the upcoming holiday season, the airline is planning to hire 600 more employees including crew and pilots. American Airlines kicked off its Monday morning by canceling 250 flights by 4:30 a.m. Central Time, an American spokesperson told Insider.Monday's cancellations came after the carrier faced a Halloween weekend full of chaos due to bad weather and staff shortages. American Airlines canceled nearly 2,000 flights over the weekend, including 343 flights on Friday, 548 flights on Saturday, and 1,058 flights on Sunday, bringing the total number of cancellations to 1,949. There were also nearly 900 delayed flights between Friday and Sunday. "We expect considerable improvement beginning today with some residual impact from the weekend," the American Airlines spokesperson told Insider Monday.American's Chief Operating Officer blamed strong winds at its massive Dallas Fort-Worth hub for a large portion of weekend cancellations, saying that because of the weather, only two runways were available for use as opposed to the usual five.The issues at Dallas Fort-Worth subsequently left employees in the wrong locations, unable to catch the correct flights. Despite the trouble, COO David Seymour, on Saturday told employees in a letter, seen by Insider, that most fliers were being rebooked the same day. In order to avoid a similar situation as holiday travel ramps up, 1,800 flight attendants are set to return from leave on November 1, with an additional group headed back to work on December 1. American also plans to hire 600 more employees by the end of 2021, including pilots and airport crew, Seymour said in the letter.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 1st, 2021

Spooky Halloween? Geomagnetic Storm To Dazzle Night Sky This Weekend

Spooky Halloween? Geomagnetic Storm To Dazzle Night Sky This Weekend The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared a "Geomagnetic Storm Watch" this weekend which could make Halloween extra spooky.  The wave of solar energy headed for Earth could dazzle the night sky on Halloween night with auroras for people to spectate across the Northeast, to the upper Midwest, and over the state of Washington.  "A G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm watch has been issued for October 30. In response to the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from Region 2887 associated with the X1 flare, a G2 (Moderate) watch is in effect for October 31," NOAA said in a statement.  "We think the initial impact will happen during the daylight hours, so for aurora enthusiasts in the U.S., we are looking at overnight of the 30th into 31st for the best chance to see the aurora," said William Murtagh, director of the SWPC.  SWPC said the storm is rated as a G3 on a scale between 1 to 5 for space weather events. There's a chance that the radiation from the storm could disrupt communications systems or the operation of spacecraft and affect power grids. The watch covers the North Pole to the 50th parallel.  A Direct Hit for #Halloween! The #solarstorm launched during the X-flare today is indeed Earth-directed! NASA predictions confirm impact by early October 31. Expect #aurora to mid-latitudes, as well as #GPS reception issues and #amateur radio disruptions on Earth's nightside! pic.twitter.com/Jjk3eixWIq — Dr. Tamitha Skov (@TamithaSkov) October 28, 2021 Space weather forecaster "Suspicious0bservers" explains more on this weekend's CME impact.  Sunspot activity is an 11-year cycle. We noted last year, a new cycle began and could be very active. It's expected to peak through 2025.  An active solar cycle could be bad news for the digital economy, as disruptions sparked by solar flares could create massive economic damage. While this current storm is unlikely to cause harm to communication systems, the next big one could be lurking around the corner.  Tyler Durden Sat, 10/30/2021 - 13:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 30th, 2021

Janet Yellen Flip-Flops, Insists Biden"s "BBB" Plan Will Actually Help Suppress Inflation

Janet Yellen Flip-Flops, Insists Biden's 'BBB' Plan Will Actually Help Suppress Inflation Before jetting off to Rome for a weekend G-20 summit in Rome, President Biden on Thursday offered his most detailed outline yet of the Dems new $1.75 trillion social spending/climate changing package, a number that was too small for progressives, who proceeded to block a Thursday vote on the president's "bipartisan" infrastructure bill. Speaking to CNBC from Rome where Yellen is attending the G-20 conference of global leaders with President Biden, the Treasury Secretary delivered her latest pitch in support of the $1.75 trillion social spending-climate agenda, covering a critical area of concern that her boss did his best to avoid during his speech yesterday. That subject? Inflation, which Biden's aides probably felt might be too dangerous for him to discuss due to his cognitive decline. And so Treasury Secretary Yellen was left to pick up the slack with a 0500ET interview on CNBC's Worldwide Exchange. The broad takeaway from her remarks: President Biden's two-party social-spending-climate plan and his "bipartisan" infrastructure plan will actually help lower inflation by reducing costs for households for key services like child-care, health care and other issues. Ultimately, she expects these pressures to subside by the second half of next year. “I don’t think that these investments will drive up inflation at all,” she told CNBC’s Sara Eisen during a live “Worldwide Exchange” interview. Months ago, Yellen was one of the first to warn about the looming inflationary beast. But now she's in charge of taming it, so of course her rhetoric has changed. Biden claimed during his White House address yesterday that "17 Nobel winning economists" had signed off on his framework, claiming it wouldn't push up inflation because it would be - more or less - be fully paid for by tax hikes while creating new economic opportunities. Right now, the bigger driver of inflation is the supply-side shocks like those unveiled by Apple during last night's earnings. "I think supply chain issues are holding our economy back somewhat...it will take a while to boost supply." @SecYellen discusses the impact of the supply chain crunch on the American and global economy, and tells @SaraEisen when to expect some relief: pic.twitter.com/yyzrsOSlmL — Worldwide Exchange (@CNBCWEX) October 29, 2021 Yellen renewed her push for White House spending plans that are unpopular with several factions of Congress and have yet to be approved. But even as the headline CPI number hits its highest level in 30 years, Yellen insisted that Biden's program would be a net benefit for workers. "It will boost the economy’s potential to grow, the economy’s supply potential, which tends to push inflation down, not up," she said. "For many American families experiencing inflation, seeing the prices of gas and other things that they buy rise, what this package will do is lower some of the most important costs, what they pay for health care, for child care. It’s anti-inflationary in that sense as well." The only problem with Yellen's worldview right now is that, as the holiday's approach, GDP is slowing because more than 100 ships are being left floating in a massive logjam making it nearly impossible for companies to obtain the goods they need ahead of the holiday season. As we noted the other day, economists from the American farm bureau warned that the US is headed for its expensive Thanksgiving ever. In effect, the reality of our current economy reflects the exact opposite of what Yellen says is coming just around the corner. "Not only has inflation risen, but growth also has decelerated. Due in large part to supply issues that have left dozens of ships stranded at U.S. ports, the pace of gross domestic product growth slowed to 2% in the third quarter, the slowest rate since the pandemic-induced recession ended in April 2020. Part of the administration’s G-20 agenda will be addressing its pet economic concerns, including the implementation of a global minimum for corporate taxes, as well as addressing climate change and the supply chain issues that have hampered growth and threaten to cut into holiday spending patterns. Yellen said she expects the supply chain issues "will be addressed over the medium term." She called the White House’s Build Back Better program "transformational" in addressing the economy’s needs as the nation seeks to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic. She insisted that the spending plans are "fully paid for" through tax proposals primarily aimed at higher earners and corporations. "I think it really helps us invest in physical capital. That’s public infrastructure that’s important to productivity growth," she said. "There’s investment in human capital, there’s investment in research and development, the support that families will receive that will help them participate in the labor market." As we quipped on twitter just a week ago, the nabobs running American fiscal and monetary policy have been slowly moving the goalposts vis-a-vis inflation since the start of the year, when Larry Summers first warned about the risks of rising inflation - prompting his fellow academics to response with a mix of derision and mockery. Big finance experts: Q1 2021: There is inflation, but it's transitory Q3 2021: Ok, inflation isn't transitory, but there is no stagflation Q1 2022: Ok, there is stagflation, but this time is different and we are definitely not in the 1970s — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 22, 2021 Now, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has revised the narrative once again: President Biden's massive spending plan won't stoke even more inflation (like other recent COVID-related stmulus plans have) because the Biden plan will help stoke economic growth by allowing more women to participate in the workforce while investing in "public infrastructure." She called the White House’s Build Back Better program “transformational” in addressing the economy’s needs as the nation seeks to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic. She insisted that the spending plans are “fully paid for” through tax proposals primarily aimed at higher earners and corporations. “I think it really helps us invest in physical capital. That’s public infrastructure that’s important to productivity growth,” she said. “There’s investment in human capital, there’s investment in research and development, the support that families will receive that will help them participate in the labor market.” In the end, she's hopeful that economic growth will accelerate and inflation will recede. But to claim that this is a certainty is magical thinking at best. Over the past few weeks, the debate surrounding the inherent "transitoriness of inflation" has become increasingly fierce, forcing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to tacitly signale to other senior Fed officials that the word "transitory" shouldn't be used during public remarks, even as  America's current inflationary issues, as the accelerating price pressures have already risen more quickly than the Fed had anticipated (something billionaire PTJ warned is the "biggest threat to society). Yellen said she Friday she expects inflation to ebb over time and return to its longer-run average around 2%, which tracks with the Fed's latest economic projections. The fact that it hasn't subsided as quickly as the Fed had hoped is simply a reflection of the fact that humanity is still caught in an unprecedented pandemic in a globalized world. "I think it’s still fair to use [‘transitory’] in the sense that even if it doesn’t mean a month or two, it means a little bit longer than that. I think it conveys that the pressures that we’re seeing are related to a unique shock to the economy," she said. "As the United States recovers and as vaccinations proceed globally, and the global economic activity revives, that pricing pressure will ease." To be sure, not every business has been harmed or frustrated by inflation. Take hotels, for instance, which have the luxury of re-setting their prices every night.  "If you look at the $3 trillion of incremental savings during COVID, there’s a long way to go to spend it all. Thank you Federal Reserve and the U.S. Congress for fiscal and monetary stimulus," said CEO Christopher Nassetta. But what we would like to know is why Yellen and other top officials at the Fed and elsewhere seem so blithe to throw away their reputations as sober-minded observers of the American economy. There was - not all that long ago - a time when Yellen spoke honestly about the inflationary threat. But now that this threat has apparently surpassed the Fed and Treasury's worst-case scenarios, the Bide Admin and its top economic officials have decided to return to magical thinking while Biden weighs deploying the National Guard to drive trucks laden with goods off boatss. Tyler Durden Fri, 10/29/2021 - 19:05.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 29th, 2021

Congested Port Of LA Receiving Empty Containers From Gulf, Southeast

Congested Port Of LA Receiving Empty Containers From Gulf, Southeast By Lori Ann LaRocco of FreightWaves, American Shipper is reporting another wrinkle facing the Port of Los Angeles as it tries to clear the massive congestion. Thousands of additional empty containers are en route to the Port of Los Angeles from East Coast and Gulf Coast ports.   Over the last couple of weeks, up to 2,000 empty containers originating from the ports of Charleston, South Carolina; Savannah, Georgia; New Orleans and Houston were headed to the Port of Los Angeles to be loaded onto vessels. These containers were requested by the carriers and will create more burden for the port terminals to receive local trucks trying to unload their own empty containers. “The biggest hurdle we see in the market is the inability to return empty containers,” said Weston LaBar, head of strategy at Cargomatic. “This congests our carrier and customer yards and adds to the chassis shortage. Ultimately this can delay the ability to pick up imports due to the shortage in chassis availability and yard space.  “We have customers whose warehouses can receive goods; however, the lack of chassis and space in their yards due to the stranded empties impacts the ability to keep a delivery cadence.” The phenomenon of containers traveling from other ports to Los Angeles is not a new one. Local truckers tell American Shipper the port is known to be the “empty container dumping ground in the country.” “Even containers from Port Rupert [in British Columbia, Canada] have made their way down to Los Angeles via rail,” said one trucker who requested anonymity. “This is making a bad situation worse. There is a finite number of slots to return empties. How can we pick up empties if we can’t unload our chassis?” The reason for the carriers moving containers from the East Coast either by truck or rail to the West Coast is time. The LA trade route to China is faster than the maritime routes from the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. Despite the claims of 24/7 ports by the Biden administration, the Port of Los Angeles is still in talks with the various port stakeholders to seek participation. In an effort to expand service, the port is opening gates at 7 a.m. PT and on weekends so truck drivers can return empty containers and pick up loaded boxes.  But because of the lack of warehouses open during the flex time and on weekends, coupled with the container restrictions that are imposed by the terminals at the order of the ocean carriers, appointments are being left unused. According to the Port of Los Angeles, 50% of weekend appointments have been left open and 30% of weekday appointments remain unused. The Harbor Trucking Association says the surge of extra containers will only add to the already stressed system. “We are trying to free up chassis, but we can’t because we are competing with these additional empties contracted by the ocean carriers,” said Matt Schrap, Harbor Trucking Association CEO. “This is not helpful for the supply chain.” The acceptance of empty containers at the Port of Los Angeles is on a first-come, first-served basis. That means if the terminal hits its empty container allotment at noon and a trucker arrives at 12:05 p.m., he or she will be turned away with a full chassis and cannot pick up a loaded container. This photo given to American Shipper by port sources illustrates the unused truck appointments. The photo was taken from the APM Terminal at 7:38 a.m. PT at the Port of Los Angeles last Wednesday. It was a flex gate and opened at 7 a.m. The first appointment was a Walmart tuck at 9:45 a.m.      “We’ve been more successful than the market at threading this needle for our customers,” said LaBar. “But an increase in empties coming from the East Coast, Gulf Coast and even Canadian ports should be a cause for concern for everyone servicing and using the Southern California ports.”  Tyler Durden Wed, 10/27/2021 - 13:52.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 27th, 2021

An asteroid demolished a Middle Eastern city and everyone in it 3,600 years ago - possibly inspiring the biblical story of Sodom

A biblical story says God destroyed Sodom. A study suggests an asteroid's destruction of an ancient city millennia ago may have inspired the tale. An artist's depiction of a space rock hitting an ancient Middle Eastern city that's now called Tall el-Hammam in present-day Jordan 3,500 years ago. Allen West and Jennifer Rice The biblical story of Sodom says God destroyed the city and its inhabitants due to their wickedness. A study suggests the tale may have been inspired by an asteroid strike that destroyed an ancient city. A space rock about 165 feet wide wrecked the Middle Eastern city of Tall el-Hammam 3,600 years ago. See more stories on Insider's business page. As the inhabitants of an ancient Middle Eastern city now called Tall el-Hammam went about their daily business one day about 3,600 years ago, they had no idea an unseen icy space rock was speeding toward them at about 38,000 miles per hour.Flashing through the atmosphere, the rock exploded in a massive fireball about 2.5 miles above the ground. The blast was around 1,000 times more powerful than the atomic bomb that hit Hiroshima. The shocked city dwellers who stared at it were blinded instantly. Air temperatures rapidly rose above 3,600 degrees Fahrenheit (2,000 degrees Celsius). Clothing and wood immediately burst into flames. Swords, spears, mudbricks and pottery began to melt. Almost immediately, the entire city was on fire.Some seconds later, a massive shockwave smashed into the city. Moving at about 740 mph, it was more powerful than the worst tornado ever recorded. Deadly winds ripped through the city, demolishing every building. They sheared off the top 40 feet of the four-story palace and blew the jumbled debris into the next valley. None of the 8,000 people or any animals within the city survived - their bodies were torn apart and their bones blasted into small fragments.About a minute later, 14 miles to the west of Tall el-Hammam, winds from the blast hit the biblical city of Jericho. Jericho's walls came tumbling down and the city burned to the ground.It all sounds like the climax of an edge-of-your-seat Hollywood disaster movie. How do we know that all of this actually happened near the Dead Sea in Jordan millennia ago? The city of Tall el-Hammam is located about 7 miles northeast of the Dead Sea in Jordan. NASA Getting answers required nearly 15 years of painstaking excavations by hundreds of people. It also involved detailed analyses of excavated material by more than two dozen scientists in 10 states in the US, as well as Canada and the Czech Republic. When our group finally published the evidence recently in the journal Scientific Reports, the 21 co-authors included archaeologists, geologists, geochemists, geomorphologists, mineralogists, paleobotanists, sedimentologists, cosmic-impact expert, and medical doctors.Here's how we built up this picture of devastation in the past.Firestorm throughout the city Researchers stand near the ruins of ancient walls in Tall el-Hammam. Phil Silvia Years ago, when archaeologists looked out over excavations of the ruined city, they could see a dark, roughly 5-foot-thick jumbled layer of charcoal, ash, melted mudbricks, and melted pottery. It was obvious that an intense firestorm had destroyed this city long ago. This dark band came to be called the destruction layer.No one was exactly sure what had happened, but that layer wasn't caused by a volcano, earthquake, or warfare. None of those are capable of melting metal, mudbricks, and pottery.To figure out what could, our group used the Online Impact Calculator to model scenarios that fit the evidence. Built by impact experts, this calculator allows researchers to estimate the many details of a cosmic impact event, based on known impact events and nuclear detonations.It appears that the culprit at Tall el-Hammam was a small asteroid similar to the one that knocked down 80 million trees in Tunguska, Russia in 1908. It would have been a much smaller version of the giant 6-mile-wide rock that pushed the dinosaurs into extinction about 65 million ago.We had a likely culprit. Now we needed proof of what happened that day at Tall el-Hammam.Finding 'diamonds' in the dirt Microscope images show small cracks in grains of quartz, which are evidence of a space rock impact. Allen West Our research revealed a remarkably broad array of evidence.At the site, there are finely fractured sand grains called shocked quartz that only form at 725,000 pounds per square inch of pressure (5 gigapascals) - imagine six 68-ton Abrams military tanks stacked on your thumb.The destruction layer also contains tiny diamonoids that, as the name indicates, are as hard as diamonds. Each one is smaller than a flu virus. It appears that wood and plants in the area were instantly turned into this diamond-like material by the fireball's high pressures and temperatures.Experiments with laboratory furnaces showed that the bubbled pottery and mudbricks at Tall el-Hammam liquefied at temperatures above 2,700 degrees Fahrenheit (1,500 degrees Celsius).That's hot enough to melt an automobile within minutes.The destruction layer also contains tiny balls of melted material smaller than airborne dust particles. Called spherules, they are made of vaporized iron and sand that melted at about 2,900 degrees Fahrenheit (1,590 degrees Celsius). Spherules made of melted sand (upper left), palace plaster (upper right) and melted metal (bottom two) suggest a space rock destroyed Tall el-Hammam. Malcolm LeCompte In addition, the surfaces of the pottery and meltglass are speckled with tiny melted metallic grains, including iridium, which has a melting point of 4,435 degrees Fahrenheit (2,466 degrees Celsius), platinum that melts at 3,215 degrees Fahrenheit (1,768 degrees Celsius) and zirconium silicate that melts at 2,800 degrees Fahrenheit (1,540 degrees Celsius).Together, all this evidence shows that temperatures in the city rose higher than those of volcanoes, warfare, and normal city fires. The only natural process left is a cosmic impact.The same evidence is found at known impact sites like Tunguska and the Chicxulub crater, created by the asteroid that triggered the dinosaur extinction.One remaining puzzle is why the city and over 100 other area settlements were abandoned for several centuries after this devastation.It may be that high levels of salt deposited during the impact event made it impossible to grow crops. We're not certain yet, but we think the explosion may have vaporized or splashed toxic levels of Dead Sea salt water across the valley. Without crops, no one could live in the valley for up to 600 years, until the minimal rainfall in this desert-like climate washed the salt out of the fields.Was there a surviving eyewitness to the blast?It's possible that an oral description of the city's destruction may have been handed down for generations until it was recorded as the story of Biblical Sodom. The story of Sodom in the Bible describes the devastation of an urban center near the Dead Sea - stones and fire fell from the sky, more than one city was destroyed, thick smoke rose from the fires, and city inhabitants were killed.Could this be an ancient eyewitness account? If so, the destruction of Tall el-Hammam may be the second-oldest destruction of a human settlement by a cosmic impact event, after the village of Abu Hureyra in Syria about 12,800 years ago. Importantly, it may the first written record of such a catastrophic event.The scary thing is, it almost certainly won't be the last time a human city meets this fate. An image depicting the positions of known near-Earth objects (in green), January 2018. NASA/JPL-Caltech Tunguska-sized airbursts, such as the one that occurred at Tall el-Hammam, can devastate entire cities and regions, and they pose a severe modern-day hazard. As of September 2021, there are more than 26,000 known near-Earth asteroids and a hundred near-Earth comets. Millions more remain undetected, and some may be headed toward the Earth now.Unless orbiting or ground-based telescopes detect these rogue objects, the world may have no warning, just like the people of Tall el-Hammam. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderSep 21st, 2021

Industry Reels out West As Drought Wreaks Havoc on Summer Real Estate Markets

Jennifer Fortune is as bullish on Lake Tahoe real estate as anybody. She’s been serving buyers and sellers in the pristine neighborhoods of the southern region of the lake for a decade. As an agent with Chase International, she is active on both sides of the California-Nevada state line, and she’s enjoyed the weather-related ebbs […] The post Industry Reels out West As Drought Wreaks Havoc on Summer Real Estate Markets appeared first on RISMedia. Jennifer Fortune is as bullish on Lake Tahoe real estate as anybody. She’s been serving buyers and sellers in the pristine neighborhoods of the southern region of the lake for a decade. As an agent with Chase International, she is active on both sides of the California-Nevada state line, and she’s enjoyed the weather-related ebbs and flows of the local market on a mostly upward trajectory—until this summer. With the siege of the 219,267-acre Caldor Fire, which as of mid-September has yet to be contained, Fortune’s confidence and that of the hundreds of agents across the American West who’ve made a living in heavy forest communities—some, like Lake Tahoe, are world-renowned for their scenic beauty and gorgeous estates—is beginning to wane in the face of such devastation. Currently, more than 100 separate wildfires are raging from as far east as Minnesota. According to Cal Fire, the emergency management authority for California, which has, by far, the most wildfires, 3,285 structures have been damaged or destroyed this year with at least three fatalities and the scorching of more than 2.24 million acres in California, alone. The Caldor Fire by Lake Tahoe has crushed the summer home-buying season, which usually climaxes around Labor Day weekend, and forced the evacuation of thousands, including Fortune. “I don’t see how it cannot have an impact on the market,” Fortune says on her 13th day of evacuation. “We’ll recover, but this has to have an impact.” Even in areas where there isn’t an immediate danger, the roads are closed, the forests are inaccessible and the air quality is poor. Fortune indicated some have come back, but most who planned on buying or selling are delaying their plans. Fortune expects the full impact of these fires will not be known for weeks or maybe months, and then it will all be up to the winter ski season. If it’s a snowy winter, that could bring in skiers and support the economy as well as reduce the risk of another dry summer next year. Dryness and winds are the biggest triggers for forest fires. However, there are major issues that have to play out before then—mainly insurance. In California, there is a state-mandated moratorium preventing insurance companies from canceling or non-renewing policies in Siskiyou, Lassen and Plumas Counties for a full year. People who want to buy can’t get a new policy and existing ones have gone through the roof—up 80% over the past two years in some cases, Fortune says. Sabrina R. Belleci, a broker/owner with RE/MAX North Lake, has been active in the Lake Tahoe region for 12 years. She’s been through several of these multi-season drought cycles in that time, but she suggests the current state of the markets is much more complicated due to COVID-19. “COVID is stretching out the seasons,” Belleci says. “Normally, it starts to slow in the fall, but I think it will be okay. People are relocating and getting out of California and the higher income-tax states. There is still quite a bit of demand.” The trend aligns with Fortune’s thesis that an underlying demand for the Lake Tahoe lifestyle will eventually resurface. It’s just not clear how long that will take. If it’s just a brief market correction, that actually may be easy for the market to withstand since it was running so hot prior to the fires, fueled by new remote workers from all over the U.S. who became untethered from their office jobs on account of the pandemic. Most expect that greater trend to remain even if to a lesser extent post-COVID. Still, a quick rebound in Lake Tahoe is probably not in the cards due to the sheer amount of clean-up to perform and institutional hurdles to clear. The first wave is trickling in with bargain-seekers looking to take advantage of the soft market and snap up a few of the waterfront trophy properties, Fortune says. “The only buyers are people thinking they’re going to get deals,” Fortune says. “On the lake, a couple things went quickly, including a condo in three days for $2.5 million on the Nevada side. The desirable properties will hold up.” Then, the Nevada side will likely rebound first due to the insurance situation, Belleci says, citing some of the higher-rated fire districts which reduce insurance premiums. The timing on this, though, is anyone’s guess. Plus, reconstruction efforts could be unusually slow due to a shortage of materials and labor as well as logistical and accessibility challenges. “No one is cancelling as much as they’re just delaying,” Fortune says. “The longer it takes, the more it could increase inventory in the mid- to long-term. It’s always changing, but I think we’re definitely in for a change. I think prices will drop.” In the meantime, one group that is not waiting for the market to recover is the local bear population. Fortune’s home county, in which 700 residents lost their homes to the Caldor Fire, has also seen a barrage of bear break-ins after the evacuation. At least 70 have been reported, Fortune says. Upon being displaced by the fire, these hungry animals stumble upon vacant homes which, in some cases, have fully-stacked refrigerators. “There’s tons of bear damage,” Fortune says. “People have to come home after being evacuated and then they have to clean up.” Forty miles to the north, Broker Karen Degney of Realty ONE Group in Reno, Nevada, has been dealing with the effects of the Dixie Fire, which is four times larger than Caldor—1,329 structures have been destroyed, including 736 single and multifamily homes. She said its massive smoke plume has reached the Rockies, slowing the local real estate market and giving some clients buyer’s remorse. “I’ve had more than one person bring it up,” she says. “One who was closing escrow said, ‘We wish we would have known about these fires, and maybe we wouldn’t have bought here.’” Degney expects the fires from this summer to produce a ripple effect around Nevada and California. Those displaced by the Dixie and Caldor fires could move to the remaining large population centers: Carson City, Reno and what’s left of Southern Lake Tahoe. There is also a lot of back-and-forth as many local Nevadans split time in California’s Bay Area and Sacramento. That trend could be disrupted in the short-term as well, Degney says. Degney says she talks to her clients at length about the drought and subsequent fire crisis to try to put the disaster into context and relieve their concerns. “I tell them this stuff is happening nationwide,” she says. “We are in a drought, but we are in a drought on the whole West Coast. This isn’t normal. It’s extraordinary and the rest of the time it’s wonderful.” Andrew King is a contributing editor to RISMedia. The post Industry Reels out West As Drought Wreaks Havoc on Summer Real Estate Markets appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaSep 21st, 2021

BTFD Arrives: Futures Rebound, Europe Surges While Asia Slumps On Evergrande Fears

BTFD Arrives: Futures Rebound, Europe Surges While Asia Slumps On Evergrande Fears Even though China was closed for a second day, and even though the Evergrande drama is nowhere closer to a resolution with a bond default imminent and with Beijing mute on how it will resolve the potential "Lehman moment" even as rating agency S&P chimed in saying a default is likely and it does not expect China’s government “to provide any direct support” to the privately owned developer, overnight the BTFD crew emerged in full force, and ramped futures amid growing speculation that Beijing will rescue the troubled developer... Algos about to go on a rampage — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 21, 2021 ... pushing spoos almost 100 points higher from their Monday lows, and European stock were solidly in the green - despite Asian stocks hitting a one-month low - as investors tried to shake off fears of contagion from a potential collapse of China’s Evergrande, although gains were capped by concerns the Federal Reserve could set out a timeline to taper its stimulus at its meeting tomorrow. The dollar dropped from a one-month high, Treasury yields rose and cryptos rebounded from yesterday's rout. To be sure, the "this is not a Lehman moment" crowed was out in full force, as indicated by this note from Mizuho analysts who wrote that “while street wisdom is that Evergrande is not a ‘Lehman risk’, it is by no stretch of the imagination any meaningful comfort. It could end up being China’s proverbial house of cards ... with cross-sector headwinds already felt in materials/commodities.” At 7:00 a.m. ET, S&P 500 e-minis were up 34.00 points, or 0.79% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis 110.25 points, or 0.73%, while futures tracking the Dow  jumped 0.97%, a day after the index tumbled 1.8% in its worst day since late-July,  suggesting a rebound in sentiment after concerns about contagion from China Evergrande Group’s upcoming default woes roiled markets Monday. Dip-buyers in the last hour of trading Monday helped the S&P 500 pare some losses, though the index still posted the biggest drop since May. The bounce also came after the S&P 500 dropped substantially below its 50-day moving average - which had served as a resilient floor for the index this year - on Monday, its first major breach in more than six months. Freeport-McMoRan mining stocks higher with a 3% jump, following a 3.2% plunge in the S&P mining index a day earlier as copper prices hit a one-month low. Interest rate-sensitive banking stocks also bounced, tracking a rise in Treasury yields. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: U.S.-listed Chinese stocks start to recover from Monday’s slump in premarket trading as the global selloff moderates. Alibaba (BABA US), Baidu (BIDU US), Nio (NIO US), Tencent Music (TME US)and Bilibili (BILI US) are among the gainers Verrica Pharma (VRCA US) plunges 30% in premarket trading after failing to get FDA approval for VP-102 for the treatment of molluscum contagiosum ReWalk Robotics (RWLK US) shares jump 43% in U.S. premarket trading amid a spike in volume in the stock. Being discussed on StockTwits Aprea Therapeutics gains 21% in U.S. premarket trading after the company reported complete remission in a bladder cancer patient in Phase 1/2 clinical trial of eprenetapopt in combination with pembrolizumab Lennar (LEN US) shares fell 3% in Monday postmarket trading after the homebuilder forecast 4Q new orders below analysts’ consensus hurt by unprecedented supply chain challenges ConocoPhillips (COP US) ticks higher in U.S. premarket trading after it agreed to buy Shell’s  Permian Basin assets for $9.5 billion in cash, accelerating the consolidation of the largest U.S. oil patch SmileDirect (SDC US) slightly higher in premarket trading after it said on Monday that it plans to enter France with an initial location in Paris KAR Global (KAR US) shares fell 4.6% in post-market trading on Monday after the company withdrew is full-year financial outlook citing disruption caused by chip shortage Sportradar (SRAD US) shares jumped 4.5% in Monday postmarket trading, after the company said basketball legend Michael Jordan will serve as a special adviser to its board and also increase his investment in the sports betting and entertainment services provider, effective immediately Orbital Energy Group (OEG US) gained 6% postmarket Monday after a unit won a contract  to construct 1,910 miles of rural broadband network in Virginia. Terms were not disclosed “So much of this information is already known that we don’t think it will necessary set off a wave of problems,” John Bilton, head of global multi-asset strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “I’m more concerned about knock-on sentiment at a time when investor sentiment is a bit fragile. But when we look at the fundamentals -- the general growth, and direction in the wider economy -- we still feel reasonably confident that the situation will right itself.” Aside from worries over Evergrande’s ability to make good on $300 billion of liabilities, investors are also positioning for the two-day Fed meeting starting Tuesday, where policy makers are expected to start laying the groundwork for paring stimulus.  Europe's Stoxx 600 index climbed more than 1%, rebounding from the biggest slump in two months, with energy companies leading the advance and all industry sectors in the green. Royal Dutch Shell rose after the company offered shareholders a payout from the sale of shale oil fields. Universal Music Group BV shares soared in their stock market debut after being spun off from Vivendi SE. European airlines other travel-related stocks rise for a second day following the U.S. decision to soon allow entry to most foreign air travelers as long as they’re fully vaccinated against Covid-19; British Airways parent IAG soars as much as 6.9%, extending Monday’s 11% jump. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Stagecoach shares jump as much as 24% after the company confirmed it is in takeover talks with peer National Express. Shell climbs as much as 4.4% after selling its Permian Basin assets to ConocoPhillips for $9.5 billion. Bechtle gains as much as 4.3% after UBS initiated coverage at buy. Husqvarna tumbles as much as 9% after the company said it is suing Briggs & Stratton in the U.S. for failing to deliver sufficient lawn mower engines for the 2022 season. Kingfisher slides as much as 6.4% after the DIY retailer posted 1H results and forecast higher profits this fiscal year. The mood was decidedly more sour earlier in the session, when Asian stocks fell for a second day amid continued concerns over China’s property sector, with Japan leading regional declines as the market reopened after a holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.5%, headed for its lowest close since Aug. 30, with Alibaba and SoftBank the biggest drags. China Evergrande Group slid deeper in equity and credit markets Tuesday after S&P said the developer is on the brink of default. Markets in China, Taiwan and South Korea were closed for holidays. Worries over contagion risk from the Chinese developer’s debt problems and Beijing’s ongoing crackdowns, combined with concern over Federal Reserve tapering, sent global stocks tumbling Monday. The MSCI All-Country World Index fell 1.6%, the most since July 19. Japan’s stocks joined the selloff Tuesday as investor concerns grew over China’s real-estate sector as well as Federal Reserve tapering, with the Nikkei 225 sliding 2.2% - its biggest drop in three months, catching up with losses in global peers after a holiday - after a four-week rally boosted by expectations for favorable economic policies from a new government. Electronics makers were the biggest drag on the Topix, which declined 1.7%. SoftBank Group and Fast Retailing were the largest contributors to a 2.2% loss in the Nikkei 225. Japanese stocks with high China exposure including Toto and Nippon Paint also dropped. “The outsized reaction in global markets may be a function of having too many uncertainties bunched into this period,” Eugene Leow, a macro strategist at DBS Bank Ltd., wrote in a note. “It probably does not help that risk taking (especially in equities) has gone on for an extended period and may be vulnerable to a correction.” “The proportion of Japan’s exports to China is greater than those to the U.S. or Europe, making it sensitive to any slowdown worries in the Chinese economy,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, a senior strategist at Nomura Asset Management in Tokyo. “The stock market has yet to fully price in the possibility of a bankruptcy by Evergrande Group.” The Nikkei 225 has been the best-performing major stock gauge in the world this month, up 6.2%, buoyed by expectations for favorable policies from a new government and an inflow of foreign cash. The Topix is up 5.3% so far in September. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inched lower and the greenback fell versus most of its Group-of-10 peers as a selloff in global stocks over the past two sessions abated; the euro hovered while commodity currencies led by the Norwegian krone were the best performers amid an advance in crude oil prices. Sweden’s krona was little changed after the Riksbank steered clear of signaling any post-pandemic tightening, as it remains unconvinced that a recent surge in inflation will last. The pound bucked a three-day losing streak as global risk appetite revived, while investors look to Thursday’s Bank of England meeting for policy clues. The yen erased earlier gains as signs that risk appetite is stabilizing damped demand for haven assets. At the same time, losses were capped due to uncertainty over China’s handling of the Evergrande debt crisis. In rates, Treasuries were lower, although off worst levels of the day as U.S. stock futures recover around half of Monday’s losses while European equities trade with a strong bid tone. Yields are cheaper by up to 2.5bp across long-end of the curve, steepening 5s30s spread by 1.2bp; 10-year yields around 1.3226%, cheaper by 1.5bp on the day, lagging bunds and gilts by 1bp-2bp. The long-end of the curve lags ahead of $24b 20-year bond reopening. Treasury will auction $24b 20-year bonds in first reopening at 1pm ET; WI yield ~1.82% is below auction stops since January and ~3bp richer than last month’s new-issue result In commodities, crude futures rose, with the front month WTI up 1.5% near $71.50. Brent stalls near $75. Spot gold trades a narrow range near $1,765/oz. Base metals are mostly in the green with LME aluminum the best performer Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include US housing starts and building permits for August, along with the UK public finances for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos. Otherwise, the General Debate will begin at the UN General Assembly, and the OECD publishes their Interim Economic Outlook. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.0% to 4,392.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 459.10 MXAP down 0.5% to 200.25 MXAPJ up 0.2% to 640.31 Nikkei down 2.2% to 29,839.71 Topix down 1.7% to 2,064.55 Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 24,221.54 Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,613.97 Sensex up 0.4% to 58,751.30 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,273.83 Kospi up 0.3% to 3,140.51 Brent Futures up 1.6% to $75.13/bbl Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,761.68 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.19 German 10Y yield fell 5.0 bps to -0.304% Euro little changed at $1.1729 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Lael Brainard is a leading candidate to be the Federal Reserve’s banking watchdog and is also being discussed for more prominent Biden administration appointments, including to replace Fed chairman Jerome Powell and, potentially, for Treasury secretary if Janet Yellen leaves Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will this week face the challenge of convincing investors that plans to scale back asset purchases aren’t a runway to raising interest rates for the first time since 2018 ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos says there is “good news” with respect to the euro-area recovery after a strong development in the second and third quarter The ECB is likely to continue purchasing junk-rated Greek sovereign debt even after the pandemic crisis has passed, according to Governing Council member and Greek central bank chief Yannis Stournaras U.K. government borrowing was well below official forecasts in the first five months of the fiscal year, providing a fillip for Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak as he prepares for a review of tax and spending next month U.K. Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng warned the next few days will be challenging as the energy crisis deepens, and meat producers struggle with a crunch in carbon dioxide supplies The U.K.’s green bond debut broke demand records for the nation’s debt as investors leaped on the long-anticipated sterling asset. The nation is offering a green bond maturing in 2033 via banks on Tuesday at 7.5 basis points over the June 2032 gilt. It has not given an exact size target for the sale, which has attracted a record of more than 90 billion pounds ($123 billion) in orders Germany cut planned debt sales in the fourth quarter by 4 billion euros ($4.7 billion), suggesting the surge in borrowing triggered by the coronavirus pandemic is receding Contagion from China Evergrande Group has started to engulf even safer debt in Asia, sparking the worst sustained selloff of the securities since April. Premiums on Asian investment-grade dollar bonds widened 2-3 basis points Tuesday, according to credit traders, after a jump of 3.4 basis points on Monday Swiss National Bank policy makers watching the effects of negative interest rates on the economy are worrying about the real-estate bubble that their policy is helping to foster Global central banks need to set out clear strategies for coping with inflation risks as the world economy experiences faster-than-expected cost increases amid an uneven recovery from the pandemic, the OECD said A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equities traded cautiously following the recent downbeat global risk appetite due to Evergrande contagion concerns which resulted in the worst day for Wall Street since May, with the region also contending with holiday-thinned conditions due to the ongoing closures in China, South Korea and Taiwan. ASX 200 (+0.2%) was indecisive with a rebound in the mining-related sectors counterbalanced by underperformance in utilities, financials and tech, while there were also reports that the Byron Bay area in New South Wales will be subject to a seven-day lockdown from this evening. Nikkei 225 (-1.8%) was heavily pressured and relinquished the 30k status as it played catch up to the contagion downturn on return from the extended weekend with recent detrimental currency inflows also contributing to the losses for exporters. Hang Seng (-0.3%) was choppy amid the continued absence of mainland participants with markets second-guessing whether Chinese authorities will intervene in the event of an Evergrande collapse, while shares in the world’s most indebted developer fluctuated and wiped out an early rebound, although affiliate Evergrande Property Services and other property names fared better after Sun Hung Kai disputed reports of China pressuring Hong Kong developers and with Guangzhou R&F Properties boosted by reports major shareholders pledged funds in the Co. which is also selling key assets to Country Garden. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher amid the underperformance in Japanese stocks and with the Japan Securities Dealers Association recently noting that global funds purchased the most ultra-long Japanese bonds since 2014, although upside was limited amid softer demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for 2yr-20yr maturities and with the BoJ kickstarting its two-day policy meeting. Top Asian News Richest Banker Says Evergrande Is China’s ‘Lehman Moment’ Hong Kong Tycoons, Casino Giants Find Respite in Stock Rebound Taliban Add More Male Ministers, Say Will Include Women Later Asian Stocks Drop to Lowest Level This Month; Japan Leads Losses European equities (Stoxx 600 +1.1%) trade on a firmer footing attempting to recoup some of yesterday’s losses with not much in the way of incremental newsflow driving the upside. Despite the attempt to claw back some of the prior session’s lost ground, the Stoxx 600 is still lower by around 1.6% on the week. The Asia-Pac session was one characterised by caution and regional market closures with China remaining away from market. Focus remains on whether Evergrande will meet USD 83mln in interest payments due on Thursday and what actions Chinese authorities could take to limit the contagion from the company in the event of further troubles. Stateside, futures are also on a firmer footing with some slight outperformance in the RTY (+1.2%) vs. peers (ES +0.8%). Again, there is not much in the way of fresh positivity driving the upside and instead gains are likely more a by-product of dip-buying; attention for the US is set to become increasingly geared towards tomorrow’s FOMC policy announcement. Sectors in Europe are firmer across the board with outperformance in Oil & Gas names amid a recovery in the crude complex and gains in Shell (+4.4%) after news that the Co. is to sell its Permian Basin assets to ConocoPhillips (COP) for USD 9.5bln in cash. Other outperforming sectors include Tech, Insurance and Basic Resources. IAG (+4.1%) and Deutsche Lufthansa (+3.8%) both sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 as the Co.’s continue to enjoy the fallout from yesterday’s decision by the US to allow travel from vaccinated EU and UK passengers. Swatch (-0.7%) is lagging in the luxury space following a downgrade at RBC, whilst data showed Swiss watch exports were +11.5% Y/Y in August (prev. 29.1%). Finally, National Express (+7.7%) is reportedly considering a takeover of Stagecoach (+21.4%), which is valued at around GBP 370mln. Top European News U.K. Warns of Challenging Few Days as Energy Crisis Deepens Germany Trims Planned Debt Sales as Pandemic Impact Recedes U.K.’s Green Bond Debut Draws Record Demand of $123 Billion Goldman Plans $1.5 Billion Petershill Partners IPO in London In FX, all the signs are constructive for a classic turnaround Tuesday when it comes to Loonie fortunes as broad risk sentiment improves markedly, WTI consolidates within a firm range around Usd 71/brl compared to yesterday’s sub-Usd 70 low and incoming results from Canada’s general election indicate victory for the incumbent Liberal party that will secure a 3rd term for PM Trudeau. Hence, it’s better the devil you know as such and Usd/Cad retreated further from its stop-induced spike to just pips short of 1.2900 to probe 1.2750 at one stage before bouncing ahead of new house price data for August. Conversely, the Swedish Krona seems somewhat reluctant to get carried away with the much better market mood after the latest Riksbank policy meeting only acknowledged significantly stronger than expected inflation data in passing, and the repo rate path remained rooted to zero percent for the full forecast horizon as a consequence. However, Eur/Sek has slipped back to test 10.1600 bids/support following an initial upturn to almost 10.1800, irrespective of a rise in unemployment. NOK/AUD/NZD - No such qualms for the Norwegian Crown as Brent hovers near the top of a Usd 75.18-74.20/brl band and the Norges Bank is widely, if not universally tipped to become the first major Central Bank to shift into tightening mode on Thursday, with Eur/Nok hugging the base of a 10.1700-10.2430 range. Elsewhere, the Aussie and Kiwi look relieved rather than rejuvenated in their own right given dovish RBA minutes, a deterioration in Westpac’s NZ consumer sentiment and near reversal in credit card spending from 6.9% y/y in July to -6.3% last month. Instead, Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd have rebounded amidst the recovery in risk appetite that has undermined their US rival to top 0.7380 and 0.7050 respectively at best. GBP/CHF/EUR/JPY/DXY - Sterling is latching on to the ongoing Dollar retracement and more supportive backdrop elsewhere to pare losses under 1.3700, while the Franc continues its revival to 0.9250 or so and almost 1.0850 against the Euro even though the SNB is bound to check its stride at the upcoming policy review, and the single currency is also forming a firmer base above 1.1700 vs the Buck. Indeed, the collective reprieve in all components of the Greenback basket, bar the Yen on diminished safe-haven demand, has pushed the index down to 93.116 from 93.277 at the earlier apex, and Monday’s elevated 93.455 perch, while Usd/Jpy is straddling 109.50 and flanked by decent option expiry interest either side. On that note, 1.4 bn resides at the 109.00 strike and 1.1 bn between 109.60-70, while there is 1.6 bn in Usd/Cad bang on 1.2800. EM - Some respite across the board in wake of yesterday’s mauling at the hands of risk-off positioning in favour of the Usd, while the Czk has also been underpinned by more hawkish CNB commentary as Holub echoes the Governor by advocating a 50 bp hike at the end of September and a further 25-50 bp in November. In commodities, WTI and Brent are firmer in the European morning post gains in excess of 1.0%, though the benchmarks are off highs after an early foray saw Brent Nov’21 eclipse USD 75.00/bbl, for instance. While there has been newsflow for the complex, mainly from various energy ministers, there hasn’t been much explicitly for crude to change the dial; thus, the benchmarks are seemingly moving in tandem with broader risk sentiment (see equities). In terms of the energy commentary, the Qatar minister said they are not thinking of re-joining OPEC+ while the UAE minister spoke on the gas situation. On this, reports in Russian press suggests that Russia might allow Rosneft to supply 10bcm of gas to Europe per year under an agency agreement with Gazprom “as an experiment”, developments to this will be closely eyed for any indication that it could serve to ease the current gas situation. Looking ahead, we have the weekly private inventory report which is expected to post a headline draw of 2.4mln and draws, albeit of a smaller magnitude, are expected for distillate and gasoline as well. Moving to metals, spot gold is marginally firmer while silver outperforms with base-metals picking up across the board from the poor performance seen yesterday that, for instance, saw LME copper below the USD 9k mark. Note, the action is more of a steadying from yesterday’s downside performance than any notable upside, with the likes of copper well within Monday’s parameters. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Aug. Building Permits MoM, est. -1.8%, prior 2.6%, revised 2.3% 8:30am: Aug. Housing Starts MoM, est. 1.0%, prior -7.0% 8:30am: Aug. Building Permits, est. 1.6m, prior 1.64m, revised 1.63m 8:30am: Aug. Housing Starts, est. 1.55m, prior 1.53m 8:30am: 2Q Current Account Balance, est. -$190.8b, prior -$195.7b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Global markets slumped across the board yesterday in what was one of the worst days of the year as an array of concerns about the outlook gathered pace. The crisis at Evergrande and in the Chinese real estate sector was the catalyst most people were talking about, but truth be told, the market rout we’re seeing is reflecting a wider set of risks than just Chinese property, and comes after increasing questions have been asked about whether current valuations could still be justified, with talk of a potential correction picking up. Remember that 68% of respondents to my survey last week (link here) thought they’d be at least a 5% correction in equity markets before year end. So this has been front and centre of people’s mind even if the catalyst hasn’t been clear. We’ve all known about Evergrande’s woes and how big it was for a while but it wasn’t until Friday’s story of the Chinese regulatory crackdown extending into property that crystallised the story into having wider implications. As I noted in my chart of the day yesterday link here Chinese USD HY had been widening aggressively over the last couple of months but IG has been pretty rock solid. There were still no domestic signs of contagion by close of business Friday. However as it stands, there will likely be by the reopening post holidays tomorrow which reflects how quickly the story has evolved even without much new news. Before we get to the latest on this, note that we’ve still got a bumper couple of weeks on the calendar to get through, including the Fed decision tomorrow, which comes just as a potential government shutdown and debt ceiling fight are coming into view, alongside big debates on how much spending the Democrats will actually manage to pass. There has been some respite overnight with S&P 500 futures +0.58% higher and 10y UST yields up +1.5bps to 1.327%. Crude oil prices are also up c. 1%. On Evergrande, S&P Global Ratings has said that the company is on the brink of default and that it’s failure is unlikely to result in a scenario where China will be compelled to step in. The report added that they see China stepping in only if “there is a far-reaching contagion causing multiple major developers to fail and posing systemic risks to the economy.” The Hang Seng (-0.32%) is lower but the Hang Seng Properties index is up (+1.59%) and bouncing off the 5 plus year lows it hit yesterday. Elsewhere the ASX (+0.30%) and India’s Nifty (+0.35%) have also advanced. Chinese and South Korean markets are closed for a holiday but the Nikkei has reopened and is -1.80% and catching down to yesterday’s global move. Looking at yesterday’s moves in more depth, the gathering storm clouds saw the S&P 500 shed -1.70% in its worst day since May 12, with cyclical industries leading the declines and with just 10% of S&P 500 index members gaining. There was a late rally at the end of the US trading session that saw equity indices bounce off their lows, with the S&P 500 (-2.87%) and NASDAQ (-3.42%) both looking like they were going to register their worst days since October 2020 and late-February 2021 respectively. However, yesterday was still the 5th worst day for the S&P 500 in 2021. Reflecting the risk-off tone, small caps suffered in particular with the Russell 2000 falling -2.44%, whilst tech stocks were another underperformer as the NASDAQ lost -2.19% and the FANG+ index of 10 megacap tech firms saw an even bigger -3.16% decline. For Europe it was much the same story, with the STOXX 600 (-1.67%) and other bourses including the DAX (-2.31%) seeing significant losses amidst the cyclical underperformance. It was the STOXX 600’s worst performance since mid-July and the 6th worst day of the year overall. Unsurprisingly, there was also a significant spike in volatility, with the VIX index climbing +4.9pts to 25.7 – its highest closing level since mid-May – after trading above 28.0pts midday. In line with the broader risk-off move, especially sovereign bonds rallied strongly as investors downgraded their assessment of the economic outlook and moved to price out the chances of near-term rate hikes. By the close of trade, yields on 10yr Treasuries had fallen -5.1bps to 1.311%, with lower inflation breakevens (-4.1bps) leading the bulk of the declines. Meanwhile in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-4.0bps), OATs (-2.6bps) and BTPs (-0.9bps) similarly fell back, although there was a widening in spreads between core and periphery as investors turned more cautious. Elsewhere, commodities took a hit as concerns grew about the economic outlook, with Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (-1.53%) losing ground for a third consecutive session. That said, European natural gas prices (+15.69%) were the massive exception once again, with the latest surge taking them above the peak from last Wednesday, and thus bringing the price gains since the start of August to +84.80%. Here in the UK, Business Secretary Kwarteng said that he didn’t expect an emergency regarding the energy supply, but also said that the government wouldn’t bail out failed companies. Meanwhile, EU transport and energy ministers are set to meet from tomorrow for an informal meeting, at which the massive spike in prices are likely to be discussed. Overnight, we have the first projections of the Canadian federal election with CBC News projecting that the Liberals will win enough seats to form a government for the third time albeit likely a minority government. With the counting still underway, Liberals are currently projected to win 156 seats while Conservatives are projected to win 120 seats. Both the parties are currently projected to win a seat less than last time. The Canadian dollar is up +0.44% overnight as the results remove some election uncertainty. Turning to the pandemic, the main news yesterday was that the US is set to relax its travel rules for foreign arrivals. President Biden announced the move yesterday, mandating that all adult visitors show proof of vaccination before entering the country. Airline stocks outperformed strongly in response, with the S&P 500 airlines (+1.55%) being one of the few industry groups that actually advanced yesterday. Otherwise, we heard from Pfizer and BioNTech that their vaccine trials on 5-11 year olds had successfully produced an antibody response among that age group. The dose was just a third of that used in those aged 12 and above, and they said they planned to share the data with regulators “as soon as possible”. Furthermore, they said that trials for the younger cohorts (2-5 and 6m-2) are expected as soon as Q4. In Germany, there are just 5 days left until the election now, and the last Insa poll before the vote showed a slight tightening in the race, with the centre-left SPD down a point to 25%, whilst the CDU/CSU bloc were up 1.5 points to 22%. Noticeably, that would also put the race back within the +/- 2.5% margin of error. The Greens were unchanged in third place on 15%. Staying with politics and shifting back to the US, there was news last night that Congressional Democratic leaders are looking to tie the suspension of the US debt ceiling vote to the spending bill that is due by the end of this month. If the spending bill is not enacted it would trigger a government shutdown, and if the debt ceiling is not raised it would cause defaults on federal payments as soon as October. Senate Majority Leader Schumer said the House will pass a spending bill that will fund the government through December 3rd and that the “legislation to avoid a government shutdown will also include a suspension of the debt limit through December 2022.” Republicans may balk at the second measure, given that it would take the issue off the table until after the 2022 midterm elections in November of that year. There wasn’t a great deal of data out yesterday, though German producer price inflation rose to +12.0% in August (vs. +11.1% expected), marking the fastest pace since December 1974. Separately in the US, the NAHB’s housing market index unexpectedly rose to 76 in September (vs. 75 expected), the first monthly increase since April. To the day ahead now, and data releases include US housing starts and building permits for August, along with the UK public finances for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos. Otherwise, the General Debate will begin at the UN General Assembly, and the OECD will be publishing their Interim Economic Outlook. Tyler Durden Tue, 09/21/2021 - 07:45.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 21st, 2021

Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez have weathered a tabloid scandal, a possible iPhone hack, and even a trip to space. Here"s where their relationship began and everything that"s happened since.

It's been an eventful three years for Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and his girlfriend, TV host and helicopter pilot Lauren Sanchez. Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez were publicly outed as a couple in January 2019. Since then, they have both finalized their divorces and embarked on a multicontinental romance. Most recently, they bought a new house in Maui, Hawaii, and took a whirlwind trip to London. It's been a turbulent few years for Jeff Bezos and his girlfriend, Lauren Sanchez.In January 2019, the bombshell news broke that the Amazon CEO and his wife, MacKenzie, were getting a divorce after 25 years of marriage. Hours later, the world learned that Bezos was in a relationship with Lauren Sanchez, a TV host and helicopter pilot who, along with her husband, had been friends with the Bezoses.Despite a tumultuous few years that involved leaked texts, blackmail, a billion-dollar divorce, and maybe even interference from the Saudi Arabian government, Bezos and Sanchez are still going strong.Here's how their relationship became public and how they've spent the last three years as a couple.It all started on January 9, 2019. Shortly after 9 a.m., Jeff Bezos and his wife, MacKenzie Scott, issued a joint statement on Twitter that they were divorcing.Jeff Bezos and MacKenzie Scott.Dia Dipasupil / Staff"As our family and close friends know, after a long period of loving exploration and trial separation, we have decided to divorce and continue our shared lives as friends," the statement read. "If we had known we would separate after 25 years, we would do it all again."MacKenzie Scott, formerly MacKenzie Bezos, was one of Amazon's earliest employees. The couple has four children together. Hours later, a second bombshell dropped: Bezos was in a relationship with Lauren Sanchez.Paul Archuleta/Getty ImagesSanchez started her career as a news reporter and anchor — she was a longtime anchor of "Good Day LA" on Fox 11 and worked as a correspondent on "Extra." More recently, she's worked as a helicopter pilot and founded her own aerial filming company in 2016, called Black Ops Aviation. Sanchez has also had TV and film roles, including as the host of the reality show "So You Think You Can Dance" and playing an anchor in movies like "Fight Club" and "The Day After Tomorrow," according to her IMDB page. Bezos and Sanchez met through her then-husband, Patrick Whitesell, the co-CEO of Hollywood talent agency WME.Jeff Bezos with Lauren Sanchez and her husband, Patrick Whitesell.Todd Williamson/Getty Images for Amazon StudiosSanchez and Whitesell had been married since 2005, but at the time the news broke, the couple had been separated since that fall, Page Six reported. According to Brad Stone's book "Amazon Unbound," Sanchez and Bezos reconnected at an Amazon Studios party for the film "Manchester by the Sea" in 2016, though it's unclear when their romance began. In March 2018, Sanchez was invited to Amazon's annual MARS conference in Palm Springs. One month later, they had dinner with Sanchez's brother, Michael, in Los Angeles.That July, Bezos hired Sanchez's company to film footage for his rocket company, Blue Origin.The National Enquirer said it had conducted a four-month investigation into Bezos and Sanchez's relationship and had obtained texts and photos the couple had sent to each other.Jeff Bezos.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesThe Enquirer said it had tracked the couple "across five states and 40,000 miles, tailed them in private jets, swanky limos, helicopter rides, romantic hikes, five-star hotel hideaways, intimate dinner dates and 'quality time' in hidden love nests." Page Six, which published the news a few hours before the Enquirer, reported that Bezos and his then-wife knew that the Enquirer report was coming out and had timed their divorce announcement to get ahead of the news.The gossip site also reported at the time that Bezos and Sanchez started dating after Jeff and MacKenzie had separated the previous fall, and that MacKenzie knew of the relationship. The Enquirer said it had gotten its hands on "raunchy messages" and "erotic selfies," including a text that reportedly read: "I love you, alive girl."Jeff BezosREUTERS/Gary CameronThe tabloid said it also had racy photos of Bezos, including one that was too explicit to print.But according to Stone's book, the tabloid never actually had a "below-the-belt selfie" of Bezos — it was a photo of someone else Michael Sanchez took from a male-escort website and showed to the tabloid over FaceTime.Almost immediately, questions arose about the Enquirer's motives for investigating Bezos and Sanchez and the tabloid's connection to Donald Trump.David Pecker, former CEO of AMI.Marion Curtis via AP, FileA feud has simmered for years between Trump and Bezos, who also owns the Washington Post, a frequent Trump target. The Enquirer's publisher, then known as AMI, was run by David Pecker, a longtime Trump ally. (In August 2020, AMI combined with Accelerate 360 to form A360 Media, with Pecker as executive advisor.) By the end of January 2019, The Daily Beast reported that Bezos had started funding an investigation into who had leaked his private messages to the Enquirer. Bezos' personal head of security, Gavin de Becker, headed up the investigation. De Becker said at the time that he thought the leaks were "politically motivated," which AMI denied. The investigation initially pointed to Michael Sanchez, Lauren's brother and an outspoken Trump supporter, as the person who leaked the photos and texts, which Sanchez denied. Then, that February, Bezos dropped a bombshell of his own: an explosive blog post titled "No thank you, Mr. Pecker," in which he accused Pecker and AMI of trying to blackmail him.Bezos speaks at the Economic Club of Washington DC on September 13, 2018.Reuters/Joshua RobertsBezos wrote that the publisher had been threatening him with the publication of explicit photos he'd taken of himself unless he stopped investigating who was leaking his photos and texts to the tabloid.AMI also demanded that Bezos no longer claim the publisher's investigation into his personal life was influenced by political motivations, Bezos wrote. As a result, Bezos published the emails he'd received from AMI."Rather than capitulate to extortion and blackmail, I've decided to publish exactly what they sent me, despite the personal cost and embarrassment they threaten," Bezos wrote.Bezos also hinted in the post that there may have been a link between the investigation into his relationship with Sanchez and the Saudi Arabian government — specifically, that he might have been a target of the Saudis because he owns the Washington Post, which provided "unrelenting coverage," Bezos said, of the murder of its journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, who was killed by Saudi agents. The "Saudi angle" of Bezos' own investigation into the leaks seemed to have "hit a particularly sensitive nerve" with Pecker, Bezos wrote. For its part, the Saudi Arabian government denied any role in the situation and called the whole saga a "soap opera." Things quieted down for Bezos and Sanchez publicly for a few months, until April 2019, when he and Scott finalized the terms of their divorce.Jeff Bezos and MacKenzie Scott.Danny Moloshok/ReutersBezos and Scott both released statements on Twitter saying they had "finished the process of dissolving" their marriage and would be co-parenting their four kids.Scott said she was granting Bezos all her interests in the Washington Post and Blue Origin, as well as 75% of the Amazon stock they owned, and voting control over the shares she retained.Her remaining stake in Amazon has positioned her among the richest people in the world, with a net worth of $36.2 billion. One day later, Sanchez and Whitesell filed for divorce.Patrick Whitesell and Lauren Sanchez.AP PhotoTMZ reported at the time that the couple filed for joint custody of their two children. The couple reportedly finalized their divorce in October 2019. The Bezos divorce was finalized that July. A few days later, Bezos and Sanchez made their first public appearance as a couple at Wimbledon.Lauren Sanchez and Jeff Bezos at Wimbledon.AP Photo/Tim IrelandThe couple were seated behind the royals at the men's Wimbledon final between Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic at the All England Club. A few months prior to Wimbledon, the couple had attended another exclusive event: the annual Allen & Company conference in Sun Valley, Idaho. There, they mingled with Warren Buffett, Tim Cook, and Mark Zuckerberg, according to Stone's book.The pair was spotted again in August on what appeared to be a fabulous European vacation.The Rising Sun, a yacht that belongs to media titan David Geffen.Victor Fraile/ReutersThey were seen strolling through Saint-Tropez and cruising off the coast of Spain, in the Balearic Islands, aboard media mogul David Geffen's superyacht, the Rising Sun.Other guests reportedly included Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein and the founder of Thrive Capital, Josh Kushner, along with his supermodel wife, Karlie Kloss. Bezos and Sanchez were then seen on fashion designer Diane von Furstenberg's sailing yacht off the coast of Italy.Diane von Furstenberg and Jeff Bezos pose at the Statue of Liberty Museum opening on May 15, 2019.Kevin Mazur/Getty ImagesThe couple appears to be close friends with von Furstenberg and her husband, IAC Chairman Barry Diller.In December 2019, Bezos reportedly threw Sanchez an elaborate 50th birthday celebration.Katy Perry and Orlando BloomPhillip Faraone/Getty ImagesThe celebration included both a private dinner and a star-studded party attended by von Furstenberg and Diller, Katy Perry, Orlando Bloom, and Timothée Chalamet, Page Six reported.Around the holidays, the couple jetted off to French-speaking Caribbean island St. Barths.Reuters/Andrew CouldridgeThere, they relaxed on yachts and meandered around the island with Sanchez's son with her previous partner, former NFL tight end Tony Gonzalez.In January 2020, Sanchez accompanied Bezos on a trip to India.Jeff Bezos and his girlfriend Lauren Sanchez in India in January 2020.Prodip Guha/Getty ImagesSanchez attended Bezos' visit to Mahatma Gandhi's tomb and walked the red carpet with Bezos at an Amazon Prime Video event in Mumbai. A few weeks later, Sanchez traveled with Bezos to another international event — this time, a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, France. Meanwhile, Bezos had become embroiled in a legal spat with Michael Sanchez, Lauren Sanchez's brother.John Sciulli/Getty Images for Politicon; Getty ImagesSanchez filed a defamation lawsuit against Bezos in February 2020, claiming Bezos and his security consultant, Gavin de Becker, falsely accused him of providing Bezos' nude photos to the National Enquirer. Sanchez claimed in the suit that Bezos told journalists he had handed over the images to the tabloid, but he says he never had the photos in his possession. Bezos said in a court filing of his own that the suit amounted to "extortion" and directly threatened free speech. Bezos sought to dismiss Sanchez's lawsuit under a California law that's intended to protect against frivolous lawsuits. A judge has since tossed Sanchez's defamation suit, citing a lack of evidence. The judge later ordered Sanchez to pay $218,000 in legal fees for Bezos.In the lawsuit, Sanchez used the word "fiancé" to describe Bezos' relationship to Lauren Sanchez, implying that the couple is engaged.Pawan Sharma/AFP via Getty ImagesHere's the full sentence from the lawsuit (emphasis ours):"While Mr. de Becker's initial asserted theory was that Mr. Sanchez had sold out his sister for $200,000, Mr. de Becker soon realized this theory would not hold up because, among other reasons, it was inconceivable that Mr. Sanchez would ruin his relationship with his sister and her current fiancé, the richest man in the world, for financial gain."Bezos isn't described as Sanchez's fiancé anywhere else in the suit, and Bezos and Sanchez have never confirmed that they're engaged. In December, Page Six published photos of the couple on vacation, noting that Sanchez was wearing a large diamond ring. She has since been spotted several times with the ring on her left hand, where engagement rings are typically worn. At the time lawyers for Michael Sanchez said in a statement, "Michael's complaint speaks for itself." Representatives for Bezos and Sanchez did not respond to requests for comment.News broke in early 2020 that Bezos had purchased the Warner estate, a massive Beverly Hills compound, for $165 million. The purchase was the most expensive home sale in California history at the time.An aerial view of the Warner estate.Los Angeles County/PictometryPrior to the sale, The New York Post reported that Bezos and Sanchez had been house-hunting in Los Angeles for weeks, touring mansions throughout the area.The Warner estate was built by Hollywood mogul and Warner Bros. cofounder Jack Warner in 1937. It spans eight acres and is situated in the Benedict Canyon neighborhood of Beverly Hills. It's an incredibly private property that's surrounded by tall hedges, blocked off by a large gate, and completely hidden from view from the street.The compound is home to multiple dwellings, including two guesthouses and a 13,600-square-foot mansion. The estate also features a pool, tennis court, and manicured gardens, as well as a nine-hole golf course and a "motor court" with its own garage and gas pumps, according to Architectural Digest. In July 2020, Bezos appeared to make another purchase, this time right next door: a $10 million home that shares a hedge line with the Warner estate. According to property records viewed by both Variety and Daily Mail, Bezos is the new owner of the 1930s-era home on a side street in Beverly Hills' Benedict Canyon neighborhood. In February 2021, Bezos made a major career move: He announced that he would step down as CEO of Amazon in the third quarter of that year.Mike Blake/Reuters; Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty ImagesThe move became official on July 5, 2021, with Andy Jassy — then the CEO of Amazon Web Services — taking his place at the helm of Amazon.Almost immediately after his departure from Amazon became official, Bezos headed for outer space.Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesIn July of last year, Bezos lifted off aboard a Blue Origin rocket in the company's first human spaceflight. Bezos was accompanied by his brother, Mark, 82-year-old aviator Wally Funk, and Dutch teen Oliver Daemen on the quick voyage to the edge of space.Sanchez was in attendance, embracing Bezos after he safely touched down on Earth.A few months later, Bezos expanded his real estate empire once again when he and Sanchez purchased a home on Maui, Hawaii.Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez.Kevin Mazur/Getty ImagesThe home, which was purchased for an undisclosed sum in October 2021, is located in an isolated area on the island's south shore and is near lava fields, Pacific Business News reported."Jeff and Lauren love Maui, have a home on the island, visit frequently, and want to be a part of supporting the local community," an unnamed person close to the couple told PBN at the time.Bezos had made several donations to local organizations in the weeks leading up the report of his new home purchase on the island, including to organizations that support women and children that have experienced abuse or homelessness and a substance abuse treatment center.Bezos and Sanchez have continued traveling the world, most recently to London.Ricky Vigil/Getty ImagesBezos took a private tour of Buckingham Palace, where "he showed a particular interest in the Throne Room and Ballroom," The Sun reported. He and Sanchez were later spotted having dinner at the The Twenty Two hotel in Mayfair with actor Tom Cruise. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nyt8 hr. 39 min. ago

Going electric could cost the auto industry hundreds of thousands of jobs

Electric cars are simpler to make than gasoline vehicles. That simple fact could have the auto industry headed toward an employment crisis. The Volkswagen ID.4 is built at a plant in Germany.Jan Woitas/picture alliance via Getty Images The global auto industry is barreling full-steam toward an electric future.  Automakers and suppliers could lose jobs on a large scale amid the transition.  Electric cars require less manual labor and different skillsets than conventional vehicles. Automakers from General Motors to Toyota are on a mission to phase out gasoline vehicles.And while a future full of clean, electric cars will help reduce harmful emissions and stunt climate change, it may spell disaster for the thousands of auto workers whose jobs will be rendered obsolete by new technologies and manufacturing processes. As one might surmise, workers who assemble gasoline engines, transmissions, exhaust systems, and the myriad of other parts not needed in electric vehicles will likely bear the brunt of the transition. Moreover, electric motors and batteries are much simpler than traditional powertrains, allowing carmakers to maintain the same production output with fewer workers. Both Ford and Volkswagen have estimated that electric cars require 30% less labor than conventional vehicles. The consulting firm AlixPartners reckons that 40% less labor goes into an EV's motors and battery pack than an engine and transmission. The impact this epic shift will have on automotive employment isn't fully understood yet. But some industry watchers warn that the sector will lose jobs."The industry is going through a transition unlike anything we've ever seen," Brett Smith, director of technology at the Center for Automotive Research, told Insider. "There's a pretty strong chance that there will be fewer people building these cars, fewer people building the parts to these cars, and that will create challenges in some automotive communities."In a September study, the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank, said that the US could shed 75,000 auto jobs by 2030 if electric cars rise to 50% of domestic sales. (Today, they account for around 5%.) European automotive suppliers estimate that rapid electrification could cost them 275,000 jobs by 2040, even accounting for new positions that arise making EV parts.To be sure, a flurry of activity in battery and motor production will offset the erosion of traditional automotive jobs to some degree, but not without massive upheaval.According to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group, the shift to EVs in Europe will result in 630,000 fewer jobs at automakers and suppliers of parts for combustion-engine vehicles by 2030. But booming demand for batteries, charging infrastructure, and the like will create 580,000 new roles. "While the core automotive industry will certainly suffer significant job losses, some new industries that support electrification will experience tremendous job growth," the firm said. When all is said is done, policy measures to spur domestic EV production could help the US add 150,000 automotive jobs overall, the Economic Policy Institute estimates. Still, there's no guarantee that displaced workers will benefit from newly created positions. "It's not going to be the same people getting new jobs. It's often going to be new jobs created in new places for new people," Smith said. Automakers and their partners are planning a slew of battery plants in the US, but many of those factories will be far away from current auto manufacturing. Battery packs lend themselves to automation, Smith added. White-collar jobs won't be immune either. People who design systems for combustion vehicles will either need to be retrained so they can apply their skills to the next generation of EVs or face losing their jobs, said Tammy Madsen, a business professor at Santa Clara University.These cuts may already be underway: Ford reportedly plans to lay off some 8,000 salaried employees from its combustion-engine division.While nobody can predict the exact contours of the budding EV revolution, it appears that the technological shift will disrupt automotive manufacturing and employment as much as it will overhaul the makeup of streets and highways. "We absolutely have too many people in some places, no doubt about it," Ford CEO Jim Farley said on a recent earnings call. "We have skills that don't work any more, and we have jobs that need to change."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytAug 13th, 2022

We visited an Aldi store in the US and the UK to find out what you can buy for $25

We were surprised by how much you can still get for $25 at the budget supermarket in both countries, but we ended up with rather different baskets. Insider Inflation and supply chain issues are pushing up the price of groceries around the world. Aldi has thousands of stores in the US and UK offering some of the lowest grocery prices. We were surprised by how much you could buy. for $25, but the UK had some especially good deals. Groceries are becoming more expensive around the world due to inflation and rising commodity costs.Daniel GoodmanBasics that many people rely on such as milk, eggs, and chicken have been hit particularly hard.Debanjali Bose/InsiderWe visited Aldi store in the US and the UK to see how many basic groceries we could purchase for $25 in each country.Stephen Zenner/Getty Images.Aldi has more than 2,000 US stores in 36 states, and is known for being a budget grocer with affordable private label brands.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderI set out to get as much from my list as I could, though I knew I'd probably have to make some cuts.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderStrawberries were appealing, but they didn't end up fitting the budget so I left them on the shelf.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderIt would have been cheaper to buy a gallon of milk, but I live in a two person household and know it would go to waste, so I went with a half gallon instead, which was still well priced compared to other stores in my area.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderI don't usually buy organic greens, but that's all Aldi had when I shopped, so I spent a bit more here than I'd anticipated.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderAldi meat is generally cheaper than other grocery stores in my area, but the large quantities of chicken breasts and thighs would still have blown my budget.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderI was able to get two bags of groceries and a case of Aldi private label brand seltzer for just under $25.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderIt was certainly not a massive haul, but it aligned with most of the basics I'd typically buy.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderI ended up with ground turkey, because I couldn't find ground beef and chicken came in quantities too large for my budget.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderI was able to get a box of pasta and a jar of pasta sauce for just under $3 all up.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderI think the ground turkey, plus pasta and sauce could make a few hearty meals with a meat sauce or meatballs.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderIt wasn't an absolute necessity, but I love to have cans of seltzer to drink when I'm working. They were $3.79 compared with almost $5 for La Croix.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderI spent $1.99 on pretzels for something to snack on.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderAll together, this is what $25 can buy at Aldi in the Rochester, New York area.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderIt's definitely enough food to make multiple meals, but that's only possible because I already have spices, cooking oils, cheese and other basics at home.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderRealistically, I could easily go back to Aldi and spend another $50 or more to really fill out my standard shopping list for the week.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderWe went to an Aldi Local near Insider's London office at Old Street, not too far from Kings Cross.Sam Tabahriti/InsiderAldi has close to 1,000 UK stores. As a student, I used to shop at a much bigger store than this one, which is the company's smaller convenience-focused store format.Sam Tabahriti/InsiderAs I knew I had $25 (£20.60) to spend, I had to be smart about what I would pick.Sam Tabahriti/InsiderI wanted some fresh produce. There wasn't much left when I visited at about 5pm, so I bought some tomatoes, mushrooms, and mixed peppers.Sam Tabahriti/InsiderI normally opt for frozen chicken breasts they are cheaper, but this store only carried fresh options.Sam Tabahriti/InsiderThey were on special, albeit only 16 pence cheaper than normal, so into my basket they went.Sam Tabahriti/InsiderI searched for an alternative to milk as I'm intolerant to dairy products, but it didn't have any plant-based options.Sam Tabahriti/InsiderI am not a big fan of mince, but I thought I could make a nice bolognese, so I bought a 250 gram pack that only had 5% fat and cost £1.89 ($2.30).Sam Tabahriti/InsiderI don't have much of a sweet tooth so I decided to get some plain salted potato chips. A pack of six small bags cost 79 pence, or about $1.Sam Tabahriti/InsiderThe lack of plant-based milk alternative meant I had enough for a "treat" in the form of a frozen Margherita pizza. However, this was £1.09 ($1.30) and I had previously found pizza costing as little as 49 pence (60 cents) in other Aldi stores.Sam Tabahriti/InsiderI grabbed a 2-liter bottle of Aldi lemonade, which cost 43 pence, or about 50 cents. I then headed to the checkout.Sam Tabahriti/InsiderI had kept track of the cost on my phone to avoid going over my budget. The bill £20.30, so I had a few pence to spare.Sam Tabahriti/InsiderThis is what $25 (£20.60) buys at Aldi in Old Street, London.Sam Tabahriti/InsiderOverall, I don't think this was near enough and certainly not what I would normally spend. I usually allow myself £100 (£120) a month for groceries excluding ad-hoc trips for cravings.Sam Tabahriti/InsiderIn both countries, Aldi remains a good choice for budget essentials, even if they're more expensive now than a few months ago.Peter Nicholls/ReutersAs an American, I was surprised and a bit jealous to find out about some of the low prices in the UK.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderThough I felt like I was getting a good deal compared to other grocery stores, I don't think there are many things I could buy under $1 here besides maybe some canned food.Mary Meisenzahl/InsiderEven if it's not quite as cheap as the UK, I'm definitely going to keep shopping at Aldi.Beth Hall/AP Images for Weber Shandwick for AldiDo you have a story to share about a retail or restaurant chain? Email this reporter at mmeisenzahl@businessinsider.com.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytAug 13th, 2022

Modern American Policy: Stupid Or Sinister?

Modern American Policy: Stupid Or Sinister? Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, American policy has been acting in ways which suggest either a desperate ignorance or a sinister restructuring of the national narrative. Surveying the Senseless The USA is now staring down the barrel of four-decade high inflation, an inverted yield curve and the highest debt levels in its history as Wall Street recently enjoyed the strongest relief rally since 2020 on the bad news of yet another Fed rate hike (75bp) into a percolating liquidity crisis. Huh? In a Fed-led dystopia marked by years of printed rather than earned liquidity, bad news is now good news to markets who nervously seek pretexts for central bank stimulus rather than actual earnings or GDP. In such distorted landscapes, positive jobs data creates sell offs and crippling rate hikes induce rising stocks. For almost 2 years, while we and other candid market observers were warning of crippling inflation, our central bankers were describing it as “transitory” with a dishonesty similar to the current recession is not a recession meme. Huh? Meanwhile in DC, we see growing signs of a political culture less about public service and more about self-service. Wealth disparity in the home of the brave has passed the highest levels ever recorded and points directly to the slow and empirical death of the American middle class. The suburbs around DC are growing richer with lobbyist and polo-playing defense contractors buying concessions and second homes from politicians who openly sell votes for reelection in a democracy that more resembles an auction house than a house of representation. A former tobacco tsar at the FDA, for example, recently took an executive role at Phillip Morris while an executive at Raytheon (America’s second largest defense contractor) just took a key post at the Department of Defense. Alas, the foxes not only guard the hen house, they run it. The Land of the Free? If fascism is defined as “the perfect merger of the state and corporate powers” (See Mussolini circa 1936), then the USA may still be the land of the brave, but it no longer resembles the land of the free. JP Morgan, led by a $35M/year Jamie Dimon, just paid a $96M “fine” for a $20B profit garnered from openly manipulating the gold market. Huh? At the same time, once great (and now police-defunded) cities like Chicago, NYC, and San Francisco are seeing tumbleweeds blowing past office vacancy rates as high as 40% following an historically disastrous COVID lockdown policy which did far more psychological, criminal and financial damage ($7T and counting) to America than a flu with less than a 1% Case Fatality Rate. Huh? Turning to foreign policies, having failed to deliver “freedom and democracy” to Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Afghanistan at the cost of America’s best sons and daughters, one wonders why the US has spent another $60B to bring “freedom” to the Ukraine when millions of US children live in poverty. All Americans hate to see civilians suffer in needless wars. But many who blindly wave Ukrainian flags in moments of ad-water, instant-virtue signaling from a government-led media can’t place Ukraine on a map nor bother to examine the complex history of its Russian tensions which date back to the 1750s. Furthermore, sending an IQ, history and geography challenged Kamila Harris to pre-war Ukraine with a NATO narrative only accelerated the February drums of war (and the financially disastrous sanctions that followed) in the same way that Pelosi’s recent trip to Taiwan seems to be more about flaming rather than cooling the war hawks. Does the US, with over 800 military bases in 70 countries actively seek war, or does it seek peace? Thousands are dying in the East for what many professional US statesmen believe was an easily avoidable war. Has the military industrial complex, against which Eisenhower (no stranger to war) warned in January of 1961, hi-jacked American politics? Meanwhile, as American monetary and fiscal policy reached new levels of open insanity in the seemingly deliberate fear-campaign led by “experts” like Fauci in the dramatically-described “war against COVID,” the latest boogieman out of DC is an equally unaffordable war against an equally-hyped climate change. If passed, “The Inflation Adjustment Act of 2022,” now sitting on Biden’s desk (or pillow), seeks further dollars that America does not earn yet which the White House assures won’t be inflationary. Huh? Do the foregoing samples of questionable policy failures evidence open stupidity, or is there something more systemic at play? The Fed: “Advancing the Few at the Expense of the Many” My take on the Fed is only that: My take. It is based upon the premise (and bias) that the Fed is driven, as Andrew Jackson warned, to serve the few and not the many. This presumption comes not only from personal observations, but a careful study of the Fed’s illegitimate practices and origins, far too complex to unpack here but detailed in Gold Matters. The Ongoing Inflation Lie As I’ve been writing and saying for months, the Fed’s current inflation narrative as well as “solution” is as openly bogus as a 42nd Street Rolex. There is little about the current inflation narrative that compares to the 1970’s, and hence little about Powell’s current policies which remotely compare to the so-called Volcker era of 1980, which ended, by the way, in a recession. Nevertheless, I am fascinated by the extensive time, brain-power and pundit attention given to explaining current inflation. Fancy concepts from “demand-pull” to “supply shocks,” or “extraneous shocks” and “accelerants” to even “black swans” are used to explain a 9.1% CPI inflation scale (which, if DC truly wishes to be “Volcker-like,” is closer to 18% using the metrics of his era…). The Simple Inflation Truth Inflation, which was already steadily rising pre-Putin and percolating pre-COVID, is nothing more than the direct consequence of USD debasement driven by: 1) years of openly addictive mouse-click money (>10X since 2008) from the Eccles Building and, 2) fatal fiscal spending from the White House, be it red or blue. In just the last 24 months, the Fed created 50% more mouse-click money than all the money that ever existed in the 256 years of its national existence. Such numbers are a tad “inflationary,” no? Alas, costs are rising because our grotesquely inflated/de-valued dollar is tanking. Between 1776 and the un-immaculate conception of the Fed in 1913, a USD was once a USD. Since 1913, however, a USD is really (worth) nothing more than a Nickle. Why? Broken Faith vs. Store of Value Because when a central bank creates trillions of those dollars out of thin air with no link to an underlying real asset or an equivalent exchange for a good or service (as Germans like Alfred Lansburgh, Austrians like von Mises and Americans like Andrew Dickson White argued), that dollar is nothing more than a symbol of broken faith rather than a store of genuine value. Like a glass of wine filled with a swimming pool of water, the dollar is diluted; it’s flavor, color and value ruined. Since 1971, and when measured against a single milligram of gold, the USD, like all other fiat currencies, has lost greater than 95% of its value. The Fed: Blaming vs. Accountability Rather than confess the toxic reality (and complicity) of the fatal and inflationary expansion of the broad money supply, the DC elites first tried to call it “transitory,” and when that failed, they tried to call it “Putin’s inflation.” Really? There’s no doubt that the sanctions against Putin sent gas prices and the CPI higher—especially in Europe. And there’s also no doubt that the trillions of fiscal and monetary dollars used to “fight” COVID were CPI tailwinds. But a tailwind does not mean a cause. Take the “war on COVID” and the $7T+ in combined fiscal and monetary dollars used to combat it. I’m not here to end the COVID debate with medicine or science, of which I’m clearly no expert. But many of us (including Rand Paul or Christine Anderson) would agree that neither was Fauci, the CDC, the WHO or the NIH. Almost everyone (vaxed or un-vaxed, masked or un-masked) has already caught the virus; it’s fairly clear that locking the country down for well over a year did nothing but cost money and freedoms while destroying businesses who deserved to choose for themselves whether to stay open or shut. There will be others who disagree, but in my legally, historically and financially educated mind, not since the oxy-moronic Patriot Act have I seen a greater crime (or psy op) against a nation’s own citizens and their once inalienable rights and civil liberties as that which was embodied by the 2020 lockdowns. As Ben Franklin warned, a nation which surrenders its freedoms in the name of security deserves neither. Critical Thinking Locked Down As a kid who won athletic scholarships to some of the finest schools (from Choate to Harvard) in America, I learned the trade of critical thinking, which any of us can acquire, with or without a shiny diploma. What particularly sickened me, however, was that the very schools (prep to grad level) who taught me the history, laws and methods of thinking critically, independently and openly, were the same knee-bending schools who collectively insulted those same principals by shutting their doors to the un-vaxed and censoring alternative views from professors and students who thought differently. Were these lockdowns proof of humanitarian concern or were they test-drives for increasingly centralized control over national and international markets, currencies and populations? From the very beginning of the pandemic, expert virologists, physicians and even vaccine creators (as evidenced by the meetings at the AIER in Great Barrington) with equal if not far superior credentials than Dr. Fauci, were openly censored, gas-lighted and criminalized by the media as flat-earth “conspiracy theorists”—the now favorite term of art for anyone who disagrees with DC’s often comically official narrative on anything from WMD to the current definition of a recession. Thus, when considering the current inflation narrative and its causes, was the US merely stupid in imposing financially crippling lockdowns or were there sinister forces engineering fear as a means of pushing the masses into dependency while the Fed printed more dollars for the repo and bond markets (a hidden “bailout’) than for Main Street? Saudi Did It? Others may want to blame the Saudis and the high oil prices for the inflation we see today. It’s worth reminding, however, that today’s oil price is roughly the same as it was in April of 2020. The Solution Narrative As far as combatting inflation, that too creates a great deal of space for debate, error and comedy. Many, including the Fed’s James Bullard, Lael Brainard or Neel Kashkari have been arguing for aggressive rate hikes to kill inflation. But with inflation already at 9.1%, such “above-neutral” would require the Fed to follow the IMF’s recommendation that interest rates be at least 1% above inflation rates. In an honest world, that would require a 10.1% interest rate policy, which would immediately bankrupt Uncle Sam. Instead, Powell is boasting of an “aggressive” 2.25-50% Fed Fund Rates to fight 9.1% inflation, the policy equivalent of storming the beaches of Normandy with squirt-guns. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Fed, as per my recent articles, is using dishonest math to publicly claim positive 1% real rates despite the fact that when measuring even a 3% yield on the 10Y UST against a 9.1% inflation rate, the USA is in fact living in a world of at least -6% rather than +1% real rates. Like the CPI scale itself, the Fed is openly lying about negative real rates. Sadly, such clever math is now the new DC normal. The Fed won’t say what the rest of us know, namely: The only tool to fight Fed-made inflation is a Fed-made recession, which they will deny in plain sight. The Recession Narrative The latest lie from on high, of course, is the valiant attempt by Powell, Biden and Yellen to downplay 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP as a non-recessionary “transition” despite such data effectively confirming the very definition of a recession. Instead, DC would now have us believe that positive labor and unemployment data is non-recessionary. In particular, the BLS is boasting 528,000 newly created jobs in July (and 2M year-to-date), which places US unemployment at an admirable 3.5%, the lowest level seen in 50 years. Unfortunately, a little bit of honest math indicates that those “new jobs” don’t represent new folks finding work, but sadly, just folks already-employed who are taking on second or third jobs to survive rising inflation costs. The July labor force participation rate actually went down, which means there are less not more people in the work force. In April of 2019, I did a more extensive report on the DC math used to artificially puff US labor data (U3 and U6) which is far worse than officially reported. But who needs real math or honest data when DC’s comforting words feel so much better? Such consistent trends of sanctioned dishonesty, however, force us to question the intelligence and desperation of our so-called “leadership.” From Fake Math to Real Wars I’ve written and spoken extensively about the avoid-ability of the war in Ukraine as well as the foreseeable stupidity of the Western sanctions against Putin, all of which have empirically backfired at every level– from the slow collapse of the petrodollar (and hence USD) to the slow rise of a stronger, Eastern-lead trading block among the BRICS. The petrodollar is no laughing matter. Since de-coupling from the gold standard, the US relies on the forced global purchase of oil in US Dollars to prevent this already debased currency from losing even more demand, and hence value and power. Only two global leaders have since tried to stand up to the petrodollar power in the past. Saddam Hussein wanted to buy oil in euros and Khaddaffi wanted to buy oil in gold; and just look what happened to them… Unfortunately for the US, both China and Russia have nuclear weapons. Hence, the US playbook of fighting wars or indirectly eliminating leaders to keep its financial interests secure got a little bit messier this February when poking at Putin. The Dollar Fairytale: Another Open Lie from On High Despite openly objective evidence of an increasingly unloved USD, DC continues to boast of the relative strength of the USD on the DXY. What DC won’t say, however, is that this “strength” is only measured against a tanking yen and euro, two debt-soaked currencies who don’t have enough reserve currency clout to afford a currency-boosting rate hike. Against the Chinese Yuan, however, the US has less of which to boast… In short, the USD is anything but strong. As discussed above, its inherent purchasing power has been neutered by over a century of devaluation and is little more than the best horse in the Western glue factory. Profitable War Drums Given the failings and open lies above, from inflation realism and recessionary word-smithing to dying currencies and rising, unpayable debts, why on earth would the US now be saber rattling over the Ukraine or pinching the Chinese bear over Taiwan? Is it to spread democracy and freedom by helping the underdog, whatever the sacrifice? Well, one of our most famous underdogs, military generals and presidents, George Washington, warned over 2 centuries ago to precisely avoid such foreign entanglements. “Truly enlightened and independent patriots,” he argued, focused on prosperity within their borders not peripheral wars outside them. Despite such warnings, the US has spent a lot of time fighting outside its borders rather building unity within them. Why? One sad but empirically proven argument is that war is historically good for tanking GDP and struggling stock markets. In March of 2018, I penned an eerily prescient analysis of how US stocks love global war, and warned of escalations against Russia and China. In particular, I addressed the historical data of the “war dividend,” which tracked US markets reacting favorably to de-stabilization outside its borders. Thus, even if Generals Washington and Eisenhower warned against such conflicts, Wall Street and the defense contractors who lobby DC love a good war. Why? Because war feeds US markets. Conflicts overseas create massive capital flows into the relative safety of the US. During the Iraq War, hundreds of billions in Middle Eastern assets rushed into US markets while NATO bombs landed in Iraq. Between 2003 and 2008, the Dow rose steadily upwards. During the Vietnam War (which killed 58,000 Americans and 1.2 million Vietnamese), the Dow gained 53%. When the war ended, the markets promptly fell, and fell hard. During the Great War of 1914-1918, the Dow nearly doubled. As for WW2, the Dow rose by 164% between Pearl Harbor in 1941 and VJ day in 1945. Given such numbers, was the recent idea of sending a kindergarten-level intellect like Kamila Harris to negotiate peace (?) with Putin in early 2022 deliberately set up to fail? Was Pelosi’s recent flight to Taiwan a commitment to ensure freedom? Or is there a more sinister, yet hidden, motive to push for war in a time of economic disaster at home? Is America Heading in the Opposite Direction of Its Founding Fathers? History confirms that every debt crisis leads to a financial crisis, a market crisis, a currency crisis, social unrest, a political crisis, and ultimately extreme authoritarian and centralized control from the far political left of right. Given how increasingly centralized our openly broken yet centrally controlled markets, economies and politics have become, and given the acceleration and scope of the open lies, backfiring polices and unpayable costs and debts which have emerged in the post-COVID and post-sanction new normal, is it possible that the USA is headed toward a similarly authoritarian fate? Is it possible that the by ignoring the clear warnings of figures like George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Benjamin Franklin and Dwight Eisenhower, that America is heading in the opposite direction of its founding principles? Is it possible that the openly failing inflation, recessionary, domestic and foreign polices listed above are more than just a list of stupid mistakes, but indicators of a set-up for something more sinister? Are our markets, economies, currencies and individual freedoms being sacrificed to the altar of order, control, safety and security? Is DC creating an intentional class of American lords and serfs, in which the former hand out stimulus checks to prevent the later from reaching for pitch forks? As we learned in the Europe of the 1930’s or the lockdowns of the 2020’s, fear (be it viral, militant or economic) is a potent tool of control—it turns revolutionary anger into malleable subservience. Just a thought. Tyler Durden Thu, 08/11/2022 - 23:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeAug 12th, 2022

"A Tragedy:" Brits Face Worsening Cost-Of-Living Crisis As Power Bills Expected To Top $5,000

"A Tragedy:" Brits Face Worsening Cost-Of-Living Crisis As Power Bills Expected To Top $5,000 As power bills are expected to jump to record highs this winter, UK households will struggle with a worsening cost-of-living crisis. A new report via energy market intelligence firm Cornwall Insight Ltd. said the power bill price cap is set to rise to £4,266 ($5,168) per year in 1Q23, pilling even more financial pressures on consumers trying to survive the worst inflation storm in decades. Cornwall Insight's forecast comes as the price cap would breach the £4,000 for the first time, though the good news is energy costs in 2H23 should ease. Cornwall expects the price cap to remain over £3,700 through next year.  Source: Bloomberg "While our price cap forecasts have been steadily rising since the Summer 2022 cap was set in April, an increase of over £650 in the January predictions comes as a fresh shock," said Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight. "The cost-of-living crisis was already top of the news agenda as more and more people face fuel poverty, this will only compound the concerns," Lowrey added. Tragic news The latest @CornwallInsight prediction, based on Ofgem's new methodology, is an 81% price cap rise in Oct (taking typical bill to £3,582/yr) and a further 19% in Jan (so £4,266/yr) Action & planning is needed now. The zombie govt needs wake up sooner than 5 Sept... — Martin Lewis (@MartinSLewis) August 9, 2022 UK's cost-of-living crisis was described by Nigel Wilson, the chief executive of asset management company Legal & General Group Plc, in a CNBC interview on Wednesday morning. He said high energy inflation is "a tragedy for many people."  People are "finding life really difficult with energy prices going up, food prices going up, and a horrible background for many people as they struggle to pay their bills," Wilson said.  End Fuel Poverty Coalition warned rising power prices could result in 9.2 million UK households (28.4%) being thrown into fuel poverty by Oct. 1, adding the figure could increase to 10.5 million (32.6%) by January.  "A tsunami of fuel poverty will hit the country this winter and these latest estimates further demonstrate that the level of support already promised by the government is just a drop in the ocean," said Simon Francis, co-ordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition. The pain of soaring energy inflation has led to a massive movement of nearly 100,000 people who have pledged not to pay their electricity bill this winter. We reported last weekend that "Don't Pay UK," a strike encouraging people to cancel power bill payments, was gaining moment as the anonymous group hopes to have more than a million Brits boycott paying their power bill by fall.  On top of high inflation and households experiencing the most misery in three decades, the Bank of England warned last week that the UK is expected to enter a recession. All of this is setting the stage for what could be protests in the streets.  Tyler Durden Thu, 08/11/2022 - 02:45.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeAug 11th, 2022

Bonds Celebrate CPI Miss With One Of The Strongest 10Y Auctions In History

Bonds Celebrate CPI Miss With One Of The Strongest 10Y Auctions In History One day after a stellar 3Y auction saw the lowest dealer award on record, which many said (correctly) hinted at a big CPI miss, moments ago we got the follow through to today's massive CPI miss when the Treasury sold $35BN in 10Y paper in one of the strongest auctions on record. The high yield in today's sale of $35BN in paper came in at 2.755%, down from 2.94% in July and the 2nd consecutive decline; the yield also stopped through the 2.7610% When Issued by 0.6bps, the first stop through for the 10Y tenor since February! The internals were just as strong, with Indirects awarded a whopping 74.5%, the third highest on record, the highest since February's 77.6% and way above the six-auction average of 67.7%. And with Directs taking down 15.6%, below the recent average of 17.6%, Dealers were left holding just 9.9%, the lowest since February (7.4%) and the second-lowest Dealers award on record. Overall, this was a 2nd consecutive stellar 10Y auction which just like inflation, has seen yields top and are now sliding fast as the US economy is headed for a recession, an outcome which will send 10Y yields far lower from here even as the curve inverts to even more grotesque levels. And as refunding week concludes tomorrow with another 30Y auction, expect nothing but fireworks as the scramble for duration kicks into high gear. Tyler Durden Wed, 08/10/2022 - 13:20.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytAug 10th, 2022

Lithium Likely to Become a De-Facto Precious Metal: 5 Picks

We have narrowed our search to five lithium producers. These are: ALB, LTHM, PLL, LAC and SQM. Will lithium join the league of precious metals such as gold, silver, diamond or platinum? Likely so, owing to a global move toward clean energy and carbon emission reduction, a massive shift in the auto sector across the world toward electric vehicles and the proposed Inflation Reduction Act of the Biden administration.At this stage, it will be prudent to invest in lithium-producing companies with a favorable Zacks Rank. Here we offer five such companies, namely - Albemarle Corp. ALB, Livent Corp. LTHM, Piedmont Lithium Inc. PLL, Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. SQM and Lithium Americas Corp. LAC.Global Move Toward Clean EnergyThe global economy is crawling back to normalcy after two COVID-19-led pandemic-ridden years. As the global economy is bottoming out, albeit, at a slow pace, the demand for energy products has surged. This demand is primarily met by fossil fuels, prompting a spike in the prices of crude oil and natural gas.However, as the planet is heating up, most of the political and economic super-powers are shifting toward clean energy to reduce massive carbon emissions. This has led to a move toward solar and wind power, ethanol blending on crude oil and a remarkable shift toward electric vehicles. The lithium story starts from here.Massive Drive for Electric VehiclesThe latest thrust in the auto sector is electric vehicles (EV), which are rapidly changing the dynamics of this space. As the government of several developed and emerging markets are encouraging EVs for a clean climate, this industry set to flourish in the near future.The Boston Consulting Group projects EV sales to rise from 12% of the global market in 2020 to 47% in 2025. Fortune Business Insights estimated that the global EV market size is expected to grow from $287.4 billion in 2021 to $1.32 trillion in 2028.EVs run on batteries and lithium is the most vital component. Consequently, the demand for lithium is bound to skyrocket.Lithium: The Next-Generation Precious MetalPer Fortune Business Insights, the global lithium market size is projected to reach $8.24 billion by 2027-end, representing a CAGR of 9.2% over the 2020-2027 time frame. Credit Suisse expects lithium demand in 2025 to triple from the 2020 levels.The rising EV penetration will have a trickle-down effect on the supply chain, making lithium more attractive than ever. Per Reuters, lithium demand is set to hit 1 million tons by 2025 and 3 million tons by 2030 from the 320,000 tons registered in 2020.In the United States, Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is the undisputed leader in the EV space with General Motors Co. (GM), Ford Motor Co. (F) and Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) having joined the race already.The size of the EV market in China is projected to cross $800 billion by 2027. At present, EV penetration in emerging markets like India, Brazil and Indonesia is less than 1%. Major auto makers of these countries are gradually shifting toward EV, therefore opening an astonishing growth opportunity for lithium-based batteries.Inflation Reduction Act: A Major CatalystOn Aug 6, Senate has approved a $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act, which is headed for a vote in the House of Representatives this week. The bill has provisions of $390 billion to combat climate change.Per the Biden administration, the most important way to restore a clean climate is to encourage Americans to shift toward electric vehicles. Democrats are of the opinion that the bill if converted into an act, will reduce carbon emissions by 40% by 2030. Undoubtedly, lithium will be a major beneficiary of this legislation.Our Top PicksWe have narrowed our search to five lithium producers that are expected to gain from this massive opportunity. Each of our picks carries either a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The chart below shows the price performance of our five picks in the past three months.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchAlbemarle should gain from long-term growth in the battery-grade lithium market. It is expected to benefit from its actions to boost its global lithium derivative capacity. ALB will also benefit from the synergies of the Rockwood acquisition. The buyout has enhanced diversity across end markets.Albemarle also remains focused on executing its cost-reduction program. Its cost saving actions are expected to support margins in 2022. ALB also remains committed to boosting shareholder returns leveraging strong cash flows. It remains focused on maintaining its dividend payout. Albemarle has ample liquidity to meet its short-term debt obligations.The Zacks Rank #1 Albemarle has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 41.4% over the last 7 days. ALB has a current dividend yield of 0.65%.Livent is the largest vertically integrated pure-play producer of low-cost lithium. This leading lithium producer is a seller to EV original equipment manufacturers and battery makers worldwide. LTHM is one of the lowest-cost resources for lithium carbonate, providing the company with a competitive edge. Livent has a current production capacity of around 20,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate, which is expected to double by fourth-quarter 2023.LTHM is currently producing qualified battery-grade lithium hydroxide in the United States and China. Livent remains on track with near-term capacity expansions and a 5,000 metric ton hydroxide addition in Bessemer City. The acquisition of 25% indirect equity ownership in the Québec-based Nemaska Lithium project is also set to aid top-line growth.The Zacks Rank #1 Livent has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 9.5% over the last 7 days.Sociedad Química produces and distributes lithium and its derivatives. SQM offers lithium carbonates for various applications that include electrochemical materials for batteries, frits for the ceramic and enamel industries, heat-resistant glass, air conditioning chemicals, continuous casting powder for steel extrusion, primary aluminum smelting process, pharmaceuticals.Sociedad Química sells lithium derivatives and is an ingredient in the manufacturing of gunpowder. Further, SQM supplies lithium hydroxide for the lubricating greases industry, as well as cathodes for batteries.The Zacks Rank #1 Sociedad Química has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings has improved 17.5% over the last 30 days. SQM has a current dividend yield of 9.62%.Piedmont Lithium has not generated revenues yet, but is gaining massive investors’ attention of late due to its prospects. PLL is set to benefit from hard rock lithium assets in three strategic locations including North Carolina, Quebec and Ghana.Piedmont Lithium is focused on the development of the Carolina Lithium Project, located in North Carolina — one of the top-notch regions in the world for lithium exploration. The project targets the production of 30,000 tons/year of battery-grade lithium hydroxide. PLL also holds a 25% stake in the Abitibi lithium hub and a 16.52% interest in Sayona Mining.The Zacks Rank #2 Piedmont Lithium has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for next year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings has improved 45.2% over the last 30 days.Lithium Americas operates as a lithium resource firm. This emerging entrant in the lithium space is not producing any lithium right now. Nonetheless, construction activities at LAC’s Caucharí-Olaroz lithium brine project in Argentina continue to advance with production in mid-2022 expected to eventually produce 40,000 tons per annum of lithium carbonate equivalent.Moreover, as far as Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass project in Nevada is concerned, an integrated pilot plant to support enhanced scale and ongoing optimization work will make Lithium Americas’ long-term prospects promising. The Zacks Rank #3 LAC has an expected earnings growth rate of 20% for the current year. Profiting from the Metaverse, The 3rd Internet Boom (Free Report): Get Zacks' special report revealing top profit plays for the internet's next evolution. Early investors still have time to get in near the "ground floor" of this $30 trillion opportunity. You'll discover 5 surprising stocks to help you cash in.Download the report FREE today >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Piedmont Lithium Inc. (PLL): Free Stock Analysis Report Albemarle Corporation (ALB): Free Stock Analysis Report Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. (SQM): Free Stock Analysis Report Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC): Free Stock Analysis Report Livent Corporation (LTHM): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksAug 10th, 2022

July"s inflation reading is a critical moment for markets and the economy

July's CPI report is due out this morning. All eyes are on the latest inflation data, which economists say will clock in slightly lower at 8.7%. Good morning and happy CPI day, markets enthusiasts. Max Adams filling in for Phil Rosen today. We've got a big economic data point headed our way this morning and markets are bracing for impact. After June's Consumer Price Index reading of 9.1% — the fastest increase in 41 years —  there's been a chorus of commentators saying that inflation has surely peaked and that we're headed lower from here.  But not everyone is so sure and there's a lot to keep in mind in this discussion. So let's get right into it. If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. Download Insider's app here.The drop in commodities has raised hopes that inflation will start to cool.SolStock/Getty Images1. Today's inflation reading is a critical moment for markets and the economy. June's reading of 9.1% was jarring, and in the month since,  a number of top commentators have said that prices will fall from here. But not everyone is convinced. About 50% of investors surveyed by investment management giant State Street say that inflation has yet to peak, and that rising prices are keeping them up at night. Investors are so shaken, that about two thirds say they expect their current investments to lose value.Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting year-over-year CPI to show inflation increased by 8.7% in July, down slightly from June's figure. Wells Fargo, for its part this week said that it expects inflation to fall to 5% by October, driven lower by falling gas prices. But even then, higher housing costs will prevent prices from falling much further.And then there is the dreaded "S" word. According to the world's largest asset manager, markets are headed for a period of stagflation and investors need to defend their portfolios from low growth and persistent inflation. Low-volatility stocks and fixed income are ways to do this, BlackRock said Tuesday. Meanwhile, in an op-ed, Nouriel Roubini this week wrote that the era of stagflation is upon us and central banks have set a trap for themselves. "During the Great Stagflation, both components of any traditional asset portfolio — long-term bonds and US and global equities — will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses," Roubini said. In other news:Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System testifies before the House Committee on Financial Services June 23, 2022 in Washington, DCWin McNamee/Getty Images2. US stock futures rise early Wednesday, as investors brace for the key US inflation data. Meanwhile, oil prices have tumbled almost 30% in two months. Here are the latest market moves.3. On the docket: Nio Inc., The Walt Disney Company, Bumble Inc., all reporting.4. Bank of America has a list of consumer discretionary stocks set to outperform before possible rate cuts by the Fed. The US central bank may not yet be done tightening, but that day will arrive in 2023. Here are seven stocks to own before that date. 5. Elon Musk sold almost $6.9 billion worth of Tesla shares ahead of a court fight with Twitter. Musk said he could need the funds if he loses the legal battle and is forced to buy the social media platform for $44 billion. Musk, who is now left with a 15% stake in the electric car maker, explained his action in a late tweet Tuesday. 6. Investors should pare stocks and buy commodities. JPMorgan's Marco Kolanovic wrote Tuesday that recent gains in the stock market and toned down recession expectations mean commodities are attractively valued — but the quant guru is still bullish on stocks long-term.7. The stock market has misread signals from the Fed. That's according to research firm TS Lombard, which says the Fed funds rate could hit 4% by the end of the year. The firm says investors should expect another 75 basis point rate hike in September.8. The CEO of a national homebuilder says 2023 could see a much more normal housing market. Tri Pointe Homes is a $2 billion builder doing business across the US. Read why its chief executive, Doug Bauer, thinks the market is headed back toward "equilibrium."9. A fund manager who's beaten 99% of peers over the past year shares his top energy picks. Stan Majcher says the energy sector remains attractive as global energy supplies will be tight for some time. Here are his top three picks from the industry that he says are overlooked. Lumber prices, August 8, 2022Markets Insider10. Lumber has gained nearly 20% in two days. It's a big reversal for the commodity, which has tumbled in 2022 as the housing market cools off. According to one CEO, US housing is on track to stick a soft landing.Keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out The Refresh from Insider, a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. Listen here.Curated by Max Adams in New York. (Feedback or tips? madams@insider.com)Edited by Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytAug 10th, 2022

Here"s what it"s like to traverse the members-only grounds of Mar-a-Lago, from a reporter who"s been there

My visits there as a White House reporter for Politico more than five years ago came during the earliest days of Trump's presidency. Insider DC bureau chief Darren Samuelsohn in March 2017 at Mar-a-Lago, while working as a White House reporter for Politico. Also pictured is the backyard of Donald Trump's private club.Darren Samuelsohn Trump beat reporters have been trying for years to get inside the members-only Mar-a-Lago club. In early 2017, Darren Samuelsohn visited on three different occasions while working for Politico. His photographs show what it's like inside a private club that now doubles as Trump's residence. Memories of Mar-a-Lago came flooding back Monday night when the news broke that the FBI had executed a search warrant on Donald Trump's permanent residence.My visits there as a White House reporter for Politico more than five years ago came during the earliest days of Trump's presidency. They gave me an up-close look into all of the controversy and celebrity hoopla that surrounded a man who just months earlier had become the most powerful person on the planet.In all, I made three trips in March 2017 to go inside Trump's exclusive South Florida resort.I toured the well-manicured grounds and snapped my own picture of the famous Trump painting that hangs in the main bar and watched Melania Trump from a distance as she headed into a gathering of Republican donors. I even held open the big iron main door for Ivanka Trump and her three young children before they all sat down with Jared Kushner for brunch just a few feet away from my own table. A post shared by Ivanka Trump (@ivankatrump) Ivanka posted this picture on Instagram on that same morning just a short time after I saw her and her family.Trump's private residencePeople walking outside Mar-a-Lago in March 2017.Darren SamuelsohnMar-a-Lago is sandwiched between the Lake Worth Lagoon on one side and the Atlantic Ocean on the other. A short tunnel takes people under the famous A1A boulevard to get to the pool and the beach. Only members and their guests are allowed into the club, which boasts a couple of swimming pools, a restaurant serving foods named after various members of the Trump family, a bar and cardroom, as well as a spa and gym. There are also high-priced private hotel rooms, though I didn't get to see inside one. Back in March of 2017, when Trump was just settling into the presidency, he used Mar-a-Lago as his seasonal weekend retreat. His main bedroom, my tour guide explained, includes a bedroom located right above the man in the yellow pants in my picture.Reminder of the club's historyA fountain at Mar-a-Lago with a plaque that says Trump purchased the club in 1985.Darren SamuelsohnTrump bought Mar-a-Lago in 1985 for about $10 million, using it as a residence for several years before opening up the private club a decade later. A plaque near one of the two swimming pools and just below the main outdoor dining area gives a very brief overview of that history.  Bathroom glamor photosPhotos of Trump on the cover of New York magazine and running with the Olympic torch hangs in a lobby bathroom at Mar-a-Lago in March 2017.Darren SamuelsohnIt's hard to go anywhere in Mar-a-Lago without being reminded who is the owner of the place. These photos are in the men's bathroom just off the main entrance lobby. There was also another one of Trump standing with a big wide grin next to professional golf legend Arnold Palmer, but my picture came out too blurry to share it. Spa timeThe entrance to the Trump Spa at Mar-a-Lago.Darren SamuelsohnNext to one of the swimming pools is the Trump spa. We only visited for a few minutes but there were massage treatments available, as well as locker rooms, and a gym.The presidential motorcade waitsDonald Trump's presidential motorcade waiting at Mar-a-Lago in March 2017.Darren SamuelsohnTrump was visiting his club pretty much every weekend back in the early days of his presidency, dragging along the national press corps with him.A handful of reporters would sit for hours in vans waiting in motorcade formation for something to happen. Except for events where they got an invitation, rarely did the press get anywhere close to Trump and his members.But that didn't stop details from leaking about what happened at the club while the president was there.Right before one of my visits, for example, Trump caused a huge stir by working with his aides on a response to a North Korea missile test. He did that in front of his dinnertime guests. I also learned much later through the Mueller report that one of my visits to Mar-a-Lago coincided with a critical weekend meeting at the club where Trump hosted Jeff Sessions and then-White House counsel Don McGahn. There, Trump urged his attorney general at the time to unrecuse himself from the FBI's Russia investigation. Oceanfront swimmingOne of the Trump Mar-a-Lago swimming pools overlooks the Atlantic Ocean.Darren SamuelsohnMar-a-Lago has two pools, including this one overlooking the Atlantic Ocean. It was deserted in the spring of 2017, as it was also a bit cold outside by Florida standards. This is also where there are multiple guest cottages overlooking the beach, including villas my tour guide told me were frequently used by Trump's adult children when they visited.   Trump's portrait and MAGA schwagA portrait of Donald Trump hangs in the bar of Mar-a-Lago in March 2017, and Make America Great Again hats adorn chairs in the ballroom before a GOP dinner.Darren SamuelsohnI returned to Mar-a-Lago for two more stops a few weeks later.During one trip, I toured the bar area and snapped this picture of the famous portrait of Trump.I also scored a press credential to cover the Lincoln Day dinner, an annual event hosted by the Palm Beach Republican Party. They had MAGA schwag for the people who paid $300 for a seat or as much as $5,000 for a table.A Melania sightingMelania Trump walking the grounds of Mar-a-Lago during the Palm Beach Republican Party's Lincoln Day dinner on March 24, 2017.Darren SamuelsohnMelania Trump was in town for the weekend, and she made an appearance before the dinner at an exclusive cocktail hour. Reporters were kept a good distance away, which is why you can barely see the now-former first lady there in my photograph.The Donald J. Trump BallroomA speaker introduces then-Florida Gov. Rick Scott in the Donald J. Trump Ballroom at Mar-a-Lago during the March 2017 Palm Beach Republican Party's Lincoln Dinner.Darren SamuelsohnMy reporting at the time for Politico noted that the GOP attendees described the dinner as "the most overtly political shindig at Mar-a-Lago since its host moved into the White House."Rick Scott was governor of Florida at the time, and his speech included details about a recent DC visit with Trump that included lunch and a showing of "La La Land" in the White House theater. 'Deport ILLEGAL CRIMINALS'Guests hold up a sign about immigration at Mar-a-Lago during the Palm Beach Republican Party's Lincoln Day dinner on March 24, 2017.Darren SamuelsohnCredentialed reporters were free to move around the Donald J. Trump Ballroom and mingle with the guests. There were plenty of pro-Trump advocates like this, as well as some big names in Florida politics.  On this particular night, I met Adam Putnam, who was serving as Florida's Agriculture commissioner and was jockeying for a run to succeed Scott as governor.Putnam announced his campaign a few weeks after this dinner, and he was seen as an early frontrunner. But then Trump endorsed Ron DeSantis, a sitting congressman, and, well, we know the history from there. Tastes like TrumpTrump-branded mouthwash in the Mar-a-Lago ballroom men's bathroom in March 2017.Darren SamuelsohnThere were more Trump-branded products in this men's restroom, including mouthwash. It tasted like mouthwash.My Mar-a-Lago selfieDarren Samuelsohn, a Politico White House reporter at the time, poses for a selfie outside Mar-a-Lago during a tour in March 2017. He has much less hair now.Darren SamuelsohnThe Mar-a-Lago trips weren't just to soak up color.My reporting revealed Trump was very much OK with using the presidential seal at his club and that foreign spies had an unprecedented amount of access to US officials due to lax background screening.I covered other national security concerns associated with a president of the United States who mixes his taxpayer-funded job with dues-paying members of his own private club. In the following years, many of the issues I was reporting on during my early Mar-a-Lago visits would keep coming back up again. Then came the FBI raid on Monday, and a whole new set of reminders about what I witnessed during those early days of Trump's White House.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytAug 9th, 2022

Mar-a-Lago raid live updates: The FBI raid at Trump"s Mar-a-Lago serves as a reminder of a "lawless president," Democratic strategist says

Former President Donald Trump confirmed that the FBI searched Mar-a-Lago. Trump was out of state when federal agents raided his property in Florida. Donald Trump answers questions from reporters after making a video call to the troops stationed worldwide at the Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach Florida, on December 24, 2019.NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP via Getty Images The FBI searched former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago home on Monday, sparking a firestorm. Nancy Pelosi said no person is "above the law" after the raid, but Republicans condemned it as politically motivated. Republican lawmakers and right-wing organizations are now using the search to fundraise.  The Mar-a-Lago FBI raid serves as a reminder of a 'lawless president,' a Democratic strategist saysPeople walking outside Mar-a-Lago in March 2017Darren SamuelsohnThe FBI raid on former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago home puts Trump at the center of midterm elections debates, ensuring voters will hear about his legal problems from now until November.Republican and right-wing groups are already using the raid for fundraising and calling for defunding the FBI while House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy pledged to investigate the Justice Department and Attorney General Merrick Garland if Republicans take back the House.As they rally support for Trump, Democrats say the FBI's reported search for classified materials that Trump allegedly brought to his home from the White House will serve as yet another reminder of his scandals and massive legal problems for voters."This raises the stakes in the midterms as people see how dangerous the GOP has become," said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist. "This isn't about political advantage for one party or the other, it's a reminder of what happens if a lawless President is allowed to take power, aided and abetted by MAGA Republicans in Congress."Read MoreFBI seizes cell phone of Trump ally and Pennsylvania Republican Scott Perry, lawmaker claimsRep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., takes a question from a reporter at a news conference held by the House Freedom Caucus on Capitol Hill in Washington, on Aug. 23, 2021.AP Photo/Amanda Andrade-RhoadesA key ally of former President Donald Trump is claiming that federal agents seized his cell phone a day after they executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, though it is not known if the two are connected.In a statement provided to Insider, Rep. Scott Perry, a Republican from Pennsylvania, said that on Tuesday morning, "while traveling with my family, 3 FBI agents visited me and seized my cell phone."Perry denounced the alleged seizure, first reported by Fox News, but did not say what reason the FBI gave him for taking the phone."I'm outraged — though not surprised — that the FBI under the direction of Merrick Garland's DOJ, would seize the phone of a sitting Member of Congress," he stated.KEEP READINGTrump supporters protest FBI raid on a bridge outside Mar-a-Lago: 'It is us against the government'Trump supporters gather on Monday on a bridge leading to Mar-a-Lago.Kimberly Leonard/InsiderFollowing the FBI raid of former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence, several dozen Trump supporters gathered Tuesday on a bridge that extends outside the private estate.  Just a small crowd of supporters had gathered as of 2 p.m. Several people who said they were part of Club 45 — an independent Trump-supporting organization — said more people would assemble from 4 p.m. to 5 p.m., after people were done working for the day. Traffic was becoming more backed up by 3 p.m. By 5 p.m., about 60 people had gathered on the bridge.Several Trump supporters told Insider they'd heard that Trump would be driving by himself later in the day to get back into Mar-a-Lago and assess his belongings, though a local police officer refuted the rumor to Insider. In interviews, Trump supporters said they thought the FBI raid was politically motivated and would ultimately grow Trump's support, but said they weren't concerned about a civil war. Many repeated false claims that there was widespread fraud during the 2024 election. KEEP READINGHere's what it's like to traverse the members-only grounds of Mar-a-Lago, from a reporter who's been thereInsider DC bureau chief Darren Samuelsohn in March 2017 at Mar-a-Lago, while working as a White House reporter for Politico. Also pictured is the backyard of Donald Trump's private club.Darren SamuelsohnMemories of Mar-a-Lago came flooding back Monday night when the news broke that the FBI had executed a search warrant on Donald Trump's permanent residence.My visits there as a White House reporter for Politico more than five years ago came during the earliest days of Trump's presidency. They gave me an up-close look into all of the controversy and celebrity hoopla that surrounded a man who just months earlier had become the most powerful person on the planet.In all, I made three trips in March 2017 to go inside Trump's exclusive South Florida resort.READ MOREMitch McConnell declined to comment on the FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago as conservatives increasingly call out his silenceSenate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty ImagesWith former President Donald Trump fuming over an FBI raid of his Mar-a-Lago residence, the American people have yet to receive comment from the most powerful elected Republican in Washington: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.McConnell has yet to issue a statement on Monday's raid, and he dodged a question about it at a Tuesday press conference related to flooding in Eastern Kentucky."I'm here today to talk about the flood and the recovery from the flood," he said when asked for his reaction to the raid. READ MOREWhat's in Trump's search warrant? A grab-bag of potential federal charges, a longtime DOJ prosecutor predictedMar-a-Lago one day after the FBI raid.Kimberly Leonard/InsiderThe feds knew they had only one chance to search Mar-a-Lago — so they carried a big net, Gene Rossi, for three decades a federal prosecutor out of northern Virginia, predicted.The search warrant that got them inside the waterfront Palm Beach estate of former President Donald Trump may have only been one-page long — but the warrant would have authorized FBI agents to seize evidence related to multiple federal statutes, Rossi said."I would be shocked," Rossi told Insider if the search warrant did not list the federal statutes for insurrection, for sedition, and for obstruction — three charges Trump could potentially face for alleged involvement in the January 6, 2021 siege on the Capitol.Keep ReadingRepublicans revive false claim that DOJ called parents 'terrorists' after Mar-a-Lago raidRep. Jim Jordan, a Republican from OhioKevin Dietsch/Getty ImagesRepublicans who are furious with the FBI after the agency's search of former President Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence are reviving a false talking point that pits the Department of Justice against parents.Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin called the raid "stunning" in a tweet and said, "This same DOJ labeled parents in Loudoun County as terrorists."On Fox News, Rep. Jim Jordan, the House Judiciary Committee's highest-ranking Republican, made a similar claim about Attorney General Merrick Garland.Since last year, Republicans hoping to use culture wars to boost their chances in the midterm elections have said that the Biden administration and Democrats have branded parents who protest at school board meetings as domestic terrorists.Read Full StoryMar-a-Lago raid prompts elected Republicans to openly acknowledge that Trump will likely run for president againWhile Republicans slam the FBI's raid of Mar-a-Lago, many are also finally admitting in public that Trump is likely to run for president again in 2024.Trump has hinted at the prospect for months now, leaving Republicans reluctant to comment or speculate on the matter. "President Trump is likely going to run again in 2024," Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally, wrote on Twitter."Joe Biden is trying to use the FBI to subdue his top political opponent because they are afraid of him running in 2024," Republican Rep. Diana Harshbarger wrote on Twitter. Read Full StoryPence defends Trump and expresses 'deep concern' over FBI's Mar-a-Lago raidThen-President Donald Trump shakes then-Vice President Mike Pence's hand after a 2019 rally.Zach Gibson/Getty ImagesFormer Vice President Mike Pence defended Donald Trump after FBI agents raided Mar-a-Lago."I share the deep concern of millions of Americans over the unprecedented search of the personal residence of President Trump," Pence wrote on Twitter.He continued: "After years where FBI agents were found to be acting on political motivation during our administration, the appearance of continued partisanship by the Justice Department must be addressed."Read Full StoryTrump nominated the FBI Director who led Mar-A-Lago search: 'He will make us all proud'Former President Donald Trump nominated Christoper Wray for FBI Director in 2017.Brandon Bell/Getty Images, MANDEL NGAN/POOL/AFP via Getty ImagesChristopher Wray, the FBI director who authorized the Mar-a-Lago search was picked for the gig by then-President Donald Trump in 2017.Trump, at the time, called Wray a man of "impeccable credentials.""We will have a great FBI director. I think he's doing really well and we're very proud of that choice. I think I've done a great service to the country by choosing him," Trump said in a speech during a 2017 visit to France. "He will make us all proud, and I think someday we'll see that and hopefully someday soon."Now, Wray is feeling pressure from GOP lawmakers in the wake of Monday's raid. Read Full StoryRepublicans are fundraising off the FBI's raid of Trump's 'beautiful Florida home' at Mar-a-LagoShortly after the FBI searched former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago home, Republicans and right-wing groups used the opportunity to boost political fundraising efforts.A volley of emails from GOP lawmakers, political action groups, and other organizations denounced the FBI's search warrant and slammed the Biden administration."Biden's FBI raided President Trump's beautiful Florida home," the Republican National Committee wrote in a fundraising email, adding that "it's hard to believe it but it's true." Read Full StoryLindsey Graham says 'nobody's above the law' after FBI raid, but added that he's 'suspicious' of the investigationSen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC).Ting Shen - Pool/Getty ImagesSouth Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham voiced a balanced reaction in response to the FBI's search warrant of former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago home compared to some of his colleagues."We're a nation of laws. Nobody's above the law. That's for darn sure," the Republican told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. The Trump ally said, however, that he's "suspicious" of the Justice Department's investigation and called it "dangerous territory." Read Full StoryEx-RNC chairman calls Marjorie Taylor Greene a 'shitforbrains' Republican for demanding the FBI be defundedRep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican from GeorgiaDrew Angerer/Getty ImagesMichael Steele, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, slammed Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia for saying the FBI should be defunded. After the FBI searched former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago home, Greene tweeted "DEFUND THE FBI!"Steele quoted her tweet and said: "Trump failed to return classified docs requested by the National Archives. A federal judge issued a search warrant for probable cause of a crime. This is not some rando move by the FBI so you shitforbrains Republicans calling for 'defunding the FBI' for once try to be less stupid."Read Full StoryTrump family members react to FBI search, calling it 'political persecution'Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump.Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesMembers of the Trump family took to Twitter and Fox News to voice their response to the FBI's search of former president Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago home."Biden's out of control DOJ is ripping this country apart with how they're openly targeting their political enemies," Donald Trump Jr. wrote. "This is what you see happen in 3rd World Banana Republics!!!"Eric Trump told Fox News on Monday night that he was the "guy who got the call," that the FBI was executing a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, calling it "political persecution.""Every day, we get another subpoena," he said. Read Full StoryA dozen House Republicans plan to dine with Trump in Bedminster on TuesdayFormer President Donald Trump is hosting a dozen of the most conservative House Republicans at his New Jersey golf club Tuesday night for a dinner meeting.Republican Study Committee Chairman Rep. Jim Banks is reportedly leading the group, set to meet just one day after the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago.Read Full StoryTrump talked about his 'strange day' while calling into a tele-rally for Sarah Palin hours after the FBI raidFormer President Donald Trump campaigns for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at a rally in Anchorage, Alaska on July 9, 2022.Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesAfter the raid on his Mar-a-Lago residence, former president Donald Trump called into a tele-rally for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin — a long-time political ally who is now seeking an open House seat in the state's August 16 special election."Another day in paradise. This is a strange day. You probably all read about it," Trump said during a roughly 15-minute call, according to the Anchorage Daily News.Palin thanked Trump for checking in, despite the news of the raid.  Read Full StoryPelosi says FBI raid on Trump was a major step and that 'no person is above the law'—TODAY (@TODAYshow) August 9, 2022House Speaker Nancy Pelosi described the FBI raid on former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago home as a major step, and said that not even a former president is "above the law."She is the highest-ranking Democrat to comment on the search, which took place on Monday.Pelosi was interviewed about the Monday raid on NBC's "Today" show Tuesday, where she was asked by host Savannah Guthrie if the search struck her as a "pretty serious step" for the Department of Justice to take.Pelosi replied: "Yes I think it does."She said later in the interview that Democrats "believe in the rule of law, and that's what our country is about and no person is above the law, not even the president of the United States, not even a former president of the United States."Read Full StoryMichael Cohen was jubilant after the FBI searched Trump's home, says he is finally being 'held accountable'Michael Cohen in July 2018 in New York City.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesMichael Cohen, Donald Trump's former personal attorney and fixer, posted a celebratory video after FBI agents conducted a search of the ex-president's property in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. As news broke of the raid Cohen posted a selfie of himself grinning on Twitter, and in a video later posted on TikTok spelled out what he thinks the development could mean for his former boss."I can promise you only one thing, that whatever information that it is that they took from him, it's information he didn't want exposed," he said.He said Trump would frequently stash away compromising information in places he thought it was "impervious." "Let's just all rejoice the fact that this man who has avoided, legitimately avoided, any responsibility for anything is now going to be held accountable," said Cohen. "And it goes right back to the democratic adage 'no one is above the law.'"Read Full StoryMary Trump says her uncle is panicked by FBI raid and never believed the DOJ would take actionMary Trump speaking on MSNBC on August 8, 2022MSNBCThe niece of former President Donald Trump, Mary Trump, said that he is in "panic" after the FBI raided his home in Florida late on Monday. Trump "may have been told it was coming," but he would not have believed that the FBI would actually do it, Mary Trump told MSNBC on Monday.She has for years been a vocal critic of her uncle, who has attacked her in turn.Mary said that the raid would have been "a bit of a shock" to Trump, citing what she, a psychologist, called his "narcissism and sense of entitlement.""He may have known, been told it was coming, but he could not possibly believe it was coming, because it never has. So I think that's where that panic is coming from."Read Full StoryKevin McCarthy threatens to investigate DOJ over Trump FBI raid if Republicans retake the HouseHouse Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty ImagesHouse Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy threatened to investigate the DOJ and Attorney General Merrick Garland, using powers the Republican Party would gain if it retakes the House in November.In a statement Tuesday, McCarthy denounced the search conducted by FBI agents in Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort."I've seen enough. The Department of Justice has reached an intolerable state of weaponized politicization," McCarthy said in a statement."When Republicans take back the House, we will conduct immediate oversight of this department, follow the facts, and leave no stone unturned.""Attorney General Garland, preserve your documents and clear your calendar," McCarthy said.Read Full StoryA law forbidding presidents from destroying or mishandling records could be why FBI agents searched Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago homePolice direct traffic outside an entrance to former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate, Monday, Aug. 8, 2022, in Palm Beach, Florida.AP Photo/Terry RennaThe FBI search of Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort appears to be over material that Trump brought back to Florida after leaving the White House.The search appears to be over material that Trump brought back to Florida after leaving the White House. That decision spurred a federal investigation, and likely the search on Monday, linked to the Presidential Records Act.Under the act, presidential records are public property and presidents are obliged to store them properly, and not to destroy them.Read Full StoryThese GOP lawmakers say they're pro law-enforcement but voted against giving congressional medals to police. Now they're excoriating the FBI on Trump's behalf.Former President Donald Trump and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene at the LIV Golf Invitational on July 30, 2022.Jared C. Tilton/LIV Golf via Getty ImagesIn June 2021, 21 Republican lawmakers stood in opposition to legislation that would have awarded the Congressional Gold Medal to police officers who risked their lives at the Capitol during the January 6 riot.On Monday, a number of these GOP lawmakers joined a chorus of voices asking for the FBI to be destroyed and defunded for executing a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago. Here's what these lawmakers said about the FBI's search of Mar-a-Lago — and how it contrasts with their pro-law enforcement stance. READ MORERepublicans rail against the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, calling for the FBI to be destroyed and defundedRepublican Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Paul Gosar of Arizona were among several Republican lawmakers calling for the FBI to be destroyed or defunded.Anna Moneymaker/Getty ImagesThe far-right faction of the Republican party is up in arms about the Federal Bureau of Investigation's search of Mar-a-Lago, calling for the agency to be defunded and destroyed. Trump ally and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was one of the first to tweet her disapproval of the search, posting on Twitter: "DEFUND THE FBI!"Colorado lawmaker Lauren Boebert tweeted that she wanted the GOP to "set up a Select Committee to investigate the FBI's politically-motivated raid on Mar-a-Lago and on ALL the fraudulent persecution of President Trump from our government."House Republicans' calls to defund and destroy a law enforcement organization stands in contrast to legislation their party introduced in May 2021 to "back the blue" in opposition to a progressive push to defund the police. As recently as May 2022, top-ranking Republicans like Rep. Elise Stefanik were still pushing the "back the blue" slogan — something that both Greene and Boebert have themselves staunchly supported.READ MORELawyers received instructions to secure Trump's document room months before the FBI search at Mar-a-LagoFormer President Donald Trump speaks to supporters at a rally on April 2, 2022, near Washington, Michigan.Scott Olson/Getty ImagesMonths before the raid on his Mar-a-Lago residence, former President Donald Trump's lawyers recieved instructions to "secure the room" in which he stored his documents, sources told CNN.The sources told CNN Trump aides added a padlock to his basement after investigators met with his lawyers at the Florida resort.Read MoreEric Trump says he was the 'guy who got the call' that the FBI was executing a search warrant at Mar-a-LagoEric Trump said on Monday night that he was the one who informed his father Mar-a-Lago was being searched.Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesTrump — speaking to Fox News host Sean Hannity — said he was "the guy that got the call this morning." "I called my father and let him know that it happened," Trump said. "So I was involved in this all day." After the search, Eric Trump complained to Hannity that he thought there is "no family in American history that has taken more arrows in the back than the Trump family." "Every day, we get another subpoena," Trump said. "That's what this is about today, to have 30 FBI agents — actually, more than that —descend on Mar-a-Lago give absolutely, you know, no notice. Go through the gate, start ransacking an office, ransacking a closet. You know, they broke into a safe. He didn't even have anything in the safe. I mean, give me a break." READ FULL STORYFeds likely obtained 'pulverizing' amount of evidence ahead of searching Trump's Mar-a-Lago home, legal experts sayFormer President Donald Trump speaks at a "Save America" rally in Waukesha, Wisconsin, on August 5, 2022.AP Photo/Morry GashFor months, as new details emerged about the end of the Trump administration, the Justice Department confronted criticism over its slow, cautious approach to investigating the former president.Again and again, Attorney General Merrick Garland met that criticism with what has almost become his personal mantra: The Justice Department, he says, will follow the "facts and the law."On Monday, the facts and the law led FBI agents to former President Donald Trump's home.Read Full StoryTrump's 2024 rivals are swooping in to support him, claiming the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago is politically-motivatedFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis — largely thought of to be one of Trump's key rivals for the GOP presidential ticket in 2024 — tweeted in support of the former president.Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesTrump's potential rivals for a 2024 ticket quickly came to his defense on Monday night after the FBI searched Mar-a-Lago. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, widely thought of to be one of Trump's key rivals in a 2024 GOP primary, tweeted his support for the former president around an hour after Trump's statement about the FBI search dropped on Truth Social. "The raid of MAL is another escalation in the weaponization of federal agencies against the Regime's political opponents, while people like Hunter Biden get treated with kid gloves," DeSantis tweeted, adding that he thought the US was becoming a "banana republic."DeSantis was referencing an ongoing investigation into Hunter Biden's finances. Biden has not been charged with a crime and denies any wrongdoing.READ FULL STORYTrump supporters protest the execution of a search warrant against the former president outside Mar-a-Lago and FBI headquartersSupporters of former President Donald Trump hold flags in front of his home at Mar-A-Lago on August 8, 2022 in Palm Beach, Florida. The FBI raided the home to retrieve classified White House documents.Eva Marie Uzcategui/Getty ImagesAfter the FBI executed a search warrant on Donald Trump's residence at Mar-a-Lago on Monday, supporters of the former president gathered outside the Florida resort and FBI headquarters to protest.Though it was initially unclear which of several pending investigations into the former president the warrant was related to, ABC News cited sources saying it was in connection to 15 boxes of potentially classified documents Trump took with him from the White House to Mar-a-Lago at the end of his presidency. Read Full StoryTrump was perched in Trump Tower as he decried 'unauthorized raid on my home' at Mar-a-Lago resort: CNNTrump Tower in ManhattanSpencer Platt / Getty ImagesFormer President Donald Trump was in the comfort of his Trump Tower in New York City as federal agents executed a search warrant on his home in Mar-A-Lago, Florida, according to CNN reporter Kaitlin Collins.The search warrant was carried out in the early hours of Monday morning and was first reported by Florida Politics. Trump confirmed the search warrant in a statement, calling it an "unauthorized raid on my home.""Nothing like this has ever happened to a President of the United States before," his statement said. "After working and cooperating with the relevant Government agencies, this unannounced raid on my home was not necessary or appropriate."Read Full StoryThe Biden White House was unaware that the FBI was going to search Trump's Mar-a-Lago home until the former president announced it on social mediaFormer President Donald Trump speaks to the press at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, on November 22, 2018.Mandel Ngan / AFP via Getty ImagesThe Biden White House was unaware that the FBI was going to search former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago home, White House officials said.The former president accused the bureau of prosecutorial misconduct in a statement and suggested the search was part of a politically motivated plot to stop him from running for president in 2024.A senior White House official told CBS News' Ed O'Keefe that the Biden administration wasn't made aware of the search warrant until Trump released his statement about it."No advance knowledge," the official said. "Some learned from old media, some from social media."Read Full StoryDonald Trump's Mar-a-Lago home was searched by the FBI. Take a look inside his exclusive resort that the public never sees.Donald Trump outside the entrance of Mar-a-Lago on December 21, 2016.Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty ImagesDuring former President Donald Trump's time in the White House, his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach presidency exclusive resort was often referred to as "the winter White House."Now, it's just his house.Following the end of his presidential term, Trump decamped to the ornate resort. Mar-a-Lago has hosted a number of high-powered visitors over the years, as it has seemingly always served as the Trump family's gilded weekend getaway. Mar-a-Lago has served as a lavish backdrop to host important dignitaries with its elaborately decorated halls. It was built to impress.Case in point: the property was closed for 57 days amid the coronavirus pandemic after visitors like the press secretary to Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and Brazil's Chargé d'Affaires Ambassador Nestor Forster tested positive for the coronavirus in March.Here's a look inside the sprawling complex, which was built in the early 20th century, where the Trumps have hosted opulent holiday parties and watched Super Bowls alongside members of the exclusive private club.Read MoreTrump says FBI accessed his safe during raid at Mar-a-Lago: 'They even broke into my safe!'Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the Hilton Anatole on August 06, 2022 in Dallas, Texas. CPAC began in 1974, and is a conference that brings together and hosts conservative organizations, activists, and world leaders in discussing current events and future political agendas.Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesFormer President Donald Trump said the FBI went through his safe when they executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago on Monday. "They even broke into my safe!" Trump said in a Monday statement confirming the search.Read Full StoryThe FBI executed a search warrant at Trump's Mar-a-Lago homeRepublican Presidential frontrunner Donald Trump speaks to the media at the Mar-A-Lago Club on March 1, 2016 in Palm Beach, Florida. Trump held the press conference after the closing of Super Tuesday polls in a dozen statesJohn Moore/Getty ImagesFederal agents descended on former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago property in Florida on Monday, Trump announced in a statement.The former president denounced the raid as politically motivated, although he himself appointed the FBI's director, Christopher Wray.Read Full StoryRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytAug 9th, 2022

US Housing Inventory Grows At Record Pace As Buyers Slow Down; Shiller Warns Of "Heightened Risks"

US Housing Inventory Grows At Record Pace As Buyers Slow Down; Shiller Warns Of 'Heightened Risks' The number of houses sitting on the market grew at a blistering pace last month, with the number of active listings jumping 31% vs. the same period last year - a record-high increase for a third straight month, Bloomberg reports, citing a Tuesday report from Realtor.com. The sharp slowdown in activity suggests that the Federal Reserve's efforts to curb inflation through rate hikes have had a dramatic effect on the pandemic housing frenzy, as higher borrowing costs have sidelined many would-be buyers. Sellers, consequently, have responded by trimming prices to compete. "With inventories increasing, buyers will have more negotiating power," according to Realtor.com chief economist, Danielle Hale. "The two years of a market heavily tipped in favor of sellers appears to be in the rearview mirror." That said, inventories are still lower than they were pre-pandemic, while the median list price remained 17% higher in July than a year earlier. Inventory has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. And even as options increase, competition for homes remains strong, keeping prices elevated. The nationwide median list price in July was $449,000, up 17% from a year earlier and close to the all-time high reached in June. The affordability crunch and remote-work policies have been pushing some people to relocate to less-expensive areas. New listings last month contracted for the first time since March, down 2.8% from a year earlier, suggesting some owners are reconsidering their plans to list with the market shift. -Bloomberg Bloomberg also reports that homebuilders have found themselves stuck with too many houses has demand has cooled. An abrupt halt to the pandemic housing boom has left builders that started construction months ago scrambling to adapt. Photographer: Mark Felix/Bloomberg "There’s a bit of pressure on us," said Kevin Brown, a realtor who deals in new homes. "Builders have got to hit goals and make their profit, and they don’t like inventory just sitting on the ground." This year’s surge in mortgage rates tossed buyers to the sidelines. The waitlists for new houses are gone. And new-home sellers such as Kevin Brown, who works just south of Houston, are on the front lines of a massive shift.  ... An abrupt halt to the pandemic housing boom has left builders that started construction months ago scrambling to adapt. The US supply of new homes relative to sales in June was the highest since the midst of the last crash in 2010. And by early July, buyer traffic to homebuilder websites and sales offices had plunged to the lowest level for the month since 2012, according to a survey of builder sentiment from the National Association of Home Builders. In June, there were 824,000 single-family homes under construction in the US - more than at any time since October 2006, according to the NAHB. Unsold inventory has ballooned, partially as a result of supply-chain disruptions and labor constraints. "It has become a very competitive market for builders where they are trying to offload any standing inventory," said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, which tracks new-home production. "We may see a period where supply may actually exceed demand for a while in some of the markets that were the most feverish over the past two years." Shiller chimes in According to economist Robert Shiller, who predicted the 2008 housing bubble, the US housing market is headed for trouble. "Home prices haven’t fallen since the 2007–09 recession. Right now things look almost as bad," he said. "Existing home sales are down. Permits are down. A lot of signs that we’ll see something. It may not be catastrophic, but it’s time to consider that." He added that a drop on home prices is more likely than not. "The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has a futures market for home prices…That’s in backwardation now; [home] prices are expected to fall by something a little over 10% by 2024 or 2025. That’s a good estimate," he told Yahoo Finance. "The risks are heightened right now for buying a house." Tyler Durden Tue, 08/09/2022 - 11:50.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytAug 9th, 2022

"Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini warns the era of stagflation is here and central banks are setting a trap in trying to normalize policy

Central banks may find themselves in a "debt-trap" as they try to normalize monetary policies, the "Dr. Doom" economist said. Nouriel RoubiniTom Williams/CQ Roll Call/GettyImages The global economy is headed into a stagflation era, top economist Nouriel Roubini said. "The world economy is undergoing a radical regime shift," he wrote Tuesday, declaring the end of the Great Moderation. Roubini warned central banks may find themselves in a "debt-trap" as they try to normalize monetary policies. The global economy is headed into a stagflation era and central bankers may be trapping themselves by trying to normalize monetary policy, top economist Nouriel Roubini said."The world economy is undergoing a radical regime shift," he said in an op-ed for Project Syndicate on Tuesday, declaring the end of the Great Moderation, during which economies enjoyed low inflation, high growth, and mild recessions.Those qualities have been the standard for the past few decades, but are reversing into what Roubini dubs as the Great Stagflation: an era of high inflation, low growth, high debt, and the potential for severe recessions.Global economies carry larger debt ratios than before, setting up central banks for potential failure, Roubini said."Central banks are thus locked in a 'debt trap': any attempt to normalize monetary policy will cause debt-servicing burdens to spike, leading to massive insolvencies, cascading financial crises, and fallout in the real economy," he said.Roubini has earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" for his frequent warnings of economic catastrophe, including his call on the 2008 financial crisis.In recent op-eds, he's added that stocks could plunge as much as 50% and predictions of a mild recession were simply "delusional."For the new economic era, his message for investors is similarly bleak:"During the Great Stagflation, both components of any traditional asset portfolio — long-term bonds and US and global equities — will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses," Roubini said Tuesday. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytAug 9th, 2022