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Meme stocks are fading as retail traders rotate into cryptocurrencies and the metaverse, trading fintech CEO says

Meme stocks began losing their lift at the end of 2021 as metaverse stocks like Roblox and Meta grew in popularity. SOPA Images/Getty ImagesSOPA Images/Getty Images Meme stocks came onto the stage in 2021 as retail traders drove massive rallies in some names. The trend may be fading though, as retail traders rotate into cryptocurrencies. Crypto regulation will legitimize the asset class and lead to further adoption among retail investors. Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell. One year since GameStop started it all, the meme stock craze is fading.Last January, millions of retail traders banded together to drive eye-popping rallies in highly shorted, nostalgic companies, like GameStop, AMC Theaters, and BlackBerry. Day traders minted a new asset class dubbed the "meme stock" and regularly added new companies to the basket over the course of the year. At one point a tiny Danish biotech company surged more than 1,300% in a day on interest from individual investors looking for the next short squeeze. But observers say those wild spikes are likely to subside as retail traders look to new horizons to replicate last year's massive gains."Meme stock rallies are going to taper off," said Dan Raju, the cofounder and chief executive officer of Tradier. "I expect in 2022 the active traders jump into crypto."Tradier is a financial technology and software firm that powers much of the active retail trading in the market. Last year, the brokerage-as-a-service provider processed about $46 billion in assets for 2 million traders worldwide.The factors that contributed to meme-stock rallies, like people working from home and volatile pandemic markets, are subsiding, Raju said. To top it off, retail traders have "graduated" from simple equities trading and are moving into more complicated assets, like cryptocurrencies.A report from Apex Fintech Solution published on Friday shows meme stocks began losing their lift at the end of 2021, with many popular names slipping in the rankings of top stock holdings. Meanwhile, metaverse stocks grabbed the attention of the youngest investors, with companies like Facebook parent Meta, metaverse-platform Roblox, and Nike, moving up in the rankings, Apex said. Though it is still loosely defined, the metaverse is a virtual world where people interact as avatars and can game, interact, and shop using cryptocurrencies.Raju said volumes in cryptocurrency trading still remain relatively low among retail investors, with most active traders doing fewer than three trades per month.But that's about to change."2022 is going to be the year of regulation," Raju said. "Regulation is good for crypto because it legitimizes the asset class. A lot of active traders have not jumped into crypto, so as regulation comes in, active traders will engage."Many prominent investors have shied away from cryptocurrencies as they await more regulatory clarity from US agencies. Even popular trading app Robinhood has avoided calls to add more cryptocurrencies to its platform, citing regulatory uncertainty.So far, legislators and regulators, like the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Reserve, have been hesitant to act. One exception in congress has been Cynthia Lummis, a bitcoin evangelist and a Republican senator from Wyoming who is said to be planning a bill that would be one of the first attempts to create a legal framework for crypto. Regulators, for their part, have begun exploring their own rules for the space, mostly focused on investor protections."Regulation is going to drive legitimacy," Raju said, and for retail traders, it's going to "funnel into creating crypto volume."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytJan 15th, 2022

2021 Greatest Hits: The Most Popular Articles Of The Past Year And A Look Ahead

2021 Greatest Hits: The Most Popular Articles Of The Past Year And A Look Ahead One year ago, when looking at the 20 most popular stories of 2020, we said that the year would be a very tough act to follow as there "could not have been more regime shifts, volatility moments, and memes than 2020." And yet despite the exceedingly high bar for 2021, the year did not disappoint and proved to be a successful contender, and if judging by the sheer breadth of narratives, stories, surprises, plot twists and unexpected developments, 2021 was even more memorable and event-filled than 2020. Where does one start? While covid was the story of 2020, the pandemic that emerged out of a (Fauci-funded) genetic lab team in Wuhan, China dominated newsflow, politics and capital markets for the second year in a row. And while the biggest plot twist of 2020 was Biden's victory over Trump in the presidential election (it took the pandemic lockdowns and mail-in ballots to hand the outcome to Biden), largely thanks to Covid, Biden failed to hold to his biggest presidential promise of defeating covid, and not only did he admit in late 2021 that there is "no Federal solution" to covid waving a white flag of surrender less than a year into his presidency, but following the recent emergence of the Xi, pardon Omicron variant, the number of covid cases in the US has just shattered all records. The silver lining is not only that deaths and hospitalizations have failed to follow the number of cases, but that the scaremongering narrative itself is starting to melt in response to growing grassroots discontent with vaccine after vaccine and booster after booster, which by now it is clear, do nothing to contain the pandemic. And now that it is clear that omicron is about as mild as a moderate case of the flu, the hope has finally emerged that this latest strain will finally kill off the pandemic as it becomes the dominant, rapidly-spreading variant, leading to worldwide herd immunity thanks to the immune system's natural response. Yes, it may mean billions less in revenue for Pfizer and Moderna, but it will be a colossal victory for the entire world. The second biggest story of 2021 was undoubtedly the scourge of soaring inflation, which contrary to macrotourist predictions that it would prove "transitory", refused to do so and kept rising, and rising, and rising, until it hit levels not seen since the Volcker galloping inflation days of the 1980s. The only difference of course is that back then, the Fed Funds rate hit 20%. Now it is at 0%, and any attempts to hike aggressively will lead to a horrific market crash, something the Fed knows very well. Whether this was due to supply-chain blockages and a lack of goods and services pushing prices higher, or due to massive stimulus pushing demand for goods - and also prices - higher, or simply the result of a record injection of central bank liquidity into the system, is irrelevant but what does matter is that it got so bad that even Biden, facing a mauling for his Democratic party in next year's midterm elections, freaked out about soaring prices and pushed hard to lower the price of gasoline, ordering releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and vowing to punish energy companies that dare to make a profit, while ordering Powell to contain the surge in prices even if means the market is hit. Unfortunately for Biden, the market will be hit even as inflation still remain red hot for much of the coming year. And speaking of markets, while 2022 may be a year when the piper finally gets paid, 2021 was yet another blockbuster year for risk assets, largely on the back of the continued global response to the 2020 covid pandemic, when as we wrote last year, we saw "the official arrival of global Helicopter Money, tens of trillions in fiscal and monetary stimulus, an overhaul of the global economy punctuated by an unprecedented explosion in world debt, an Orwellian crackdown on civil liberties by governments everywhere, and ultimately set the scene for what even the World Economic Forum called simply "The Great Reset." Yes, the staggering liquidity injections that started in 2020, continued throughout 2021 and the final tally is that after $3 trillion in emergency liquidity injections in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic to stabilize the world, the Fed injected almost $2 trillion in the subsequent period, of which $1.5 trillion in 2021, a year where economists were "puzzled" why inflation was soaring. This, of course, excludes the tens of trillions of monetary stimulus injected by other central banks as well as the boundless fiscal stimulus that was greenlighted with the launch of helicopter money (i.e., MMT) in 2020. It's also why with inflation running red hot and real rates the lowest they have ever been, everyone was forced to rush into the "safety" of stocks (or stonks as they came to be known among GenZ), and why after last year's torrid stock market returns, the S&P rose another 27% in 2021 and up a staggering 114% from the March 2020 lows, in the process trouncing all previous mega-rallies (including those in 1929, 1938, 1974 and 2009)... ... making this the third consecutive year of double-digit returns. This reminds us of something we said last year: "it's almost as if the world's richest asset owners requested the covid pandemic." A year later, we got confirmation for this rhetorical statement, when we calculated that in the 18 months since the covid pandemic, the richest 1% of US society have seen their net worth increase by over $30 trillion. As a result, the US is now officially a banana republic where the middle 60% of US households by income - a measure economists use as a definition of the middle class - saw their combined assets drop from 26.7% to 26.6% of national wealth as of June, the lowest in Federal Reserve data, while for the first time the super rich had a bigger share, at 27%. Yes, the 1% now own more wealth than the entire US middle class, a definition traditionally reserve for kleptocracies and despotic African banana republics. It wasn't just the rich, however: politicians the world over would benefit from the transition from QE to outright helicopter money and MMT which made the over monetization of deficits widely accepted in the blink of an eye. The common theme here is simple: no matter what happens, capital markets can never again be allowed to drop, regardless of the cost or how much more debt has to be incurred. Indeed, as we look back at the news barrage over the past year, and past decade for that matter, the one thing that becomes especially clear amid the constant din of markets, of politics, of social upheaval and geopolitical strife - and now pandemics -  in fact a world that is so flooded with constant conflicting newsflow and changing storylines that many now say it has become virtually impossible to even try to predict the future, is that despite the people's desire for change, for something original and untried, the world's established forces will not allow it and will fight to preserve the broken status quo at any price - even global coordinated shutdowns - which is perhaps why it always boils down to one thing - capital markets, that bedrock of Western capitalism and the "modern way of life", where control, even if it means central planning the likes of which have not been seen since the days of the USSR, and an upward trajectory must be preserved at all costs, as the alternative is a global, socio-economic collapse. And since it is the daily gyrations of stocks that sway popular moods the interplay between capital markets and politics has never been more profound or more consequential. The more powerful message here is the implicit realization and admission by politicians, not just Trump who had a penchant of tweeting about the S&P every time it rose, but also his peers on both sides of the aisle, that the stock market is now seen as the consummate barometer of one's political achievements and approval. Which is also why capital markets are now, more than ever, a political tool whose purpose is no longer to distribute capital efficiently and discount the future, but to manipulate voter sentiments far more efficiently than any fake Russian election interference attempt ever could. Which brings us back to 2021 and the past decade, which was best summarized by a recent Bill Blain article who said that "the last 10-years has been a story of massive central banking distortion to address the 2008 crisis. Now central banks face the consequences and are trapped. The distortion can’t go uncorrected indefinitely." He is right: the distortion will eventually collapse especially if the Fed follows through with its attempt rate hikes some time in mid-2020, but so far the establishment and the "top 1%" have been successful - perhaps the correct word is lucky - in preserving the value of risk assets: on the back of the Fed's firehose of liquidity the S&P500 returned an impressive 27% in 2021, following a 15.5% return in 2020 and 28.50% in 2019. It did so by staging the greatest rally off all time from the March lows, surpassing all of the 4 greatest rallies off the lows of the past century (1929,1938, 1974, and 2009). Yet this continued can-kicking by the establishment - all of which was made possible by the covid pandemic and lockdowns which served as an all too convenient scapegoat for the unprecedented response that served to propel risk assets (and fiat alternatives such as gold and bitcoin) to all time highs - has come with a price... and an increasingly higher price in fact. As even Bank of America CIO Michael Hartnett admits, Fed's response to the the pandemic "worsened inequality" as the value of financial assets - Wall Street -  relative to economy - Main Street - hit all-time high of 6.3x. And while the Fed was the dynamo that has propelled markets higher ever since the Lehman collapse, last year certainly had its share of breakout moments. Here is a sampling. Gamestop and the emergence of meme stonks and the daytrading apes: In January markets were hypnotized by the massive trading volumes, rolling short squeezes and surging share prices of unremarkable established companies such as consoles retailer GameStop and cinema chain AMC and various other micro and midcap names. What began as a discussion on untapped value at GameStop on Reddit months earlier by Keith Gill, better known as Roaring Kitty, morphed into a hedge fund-orchestrated, crowdsourced effort to squeeze out the short position held by a hedge fund, Melvin Capital. The momentum flooded through the retail market, where daytraders shunned stocks and bought massive out of the money calls, sparking rampant "gamma squeezes" in the process forcing some brokers to curb trading. Robinhood, a popular broker for day traders and Citadel's most lucrative "subsidiary", required a cash injection to withstand the demands placed on it by its clearing house. The company IPOed later in the year only to see its shares collapse as it emerged its business model was disappointing hollow absent constant retail euphoria. Ultimately, the market received a crash course in the power of retail investors on a mission. Ultimately, "retail favorite" stocks ended the year on a subdued note as the trading frenzy from earlier in the year petered out, but despite underperforming the S&P500, retail traders still outperformed hedge funds by more than 100%. Failed seven-year Treasury auction:  Whereas auctions of seven-year US government debt generally spark interest only among specialists, on on February 25 2021, one such typically boring event sparked shockwaves across financial markets, as the weakest demand on record hit prices across the whole spectrum of Treasury bonds. The five-, seven- and 10-year notes all fell sharply in price. Researchers at the Federal Reserve called it a “flash event”; we called it a "catastrophic, tailing" auction, the closest thing the US has had to a failed Trasury auction. The flare-up, as the FT put it, reflects one of the most pressing investor concerns of the year: inflation. At the time, fund managers were just starting to realize that consumer price rises were back with a vengeance — a huge threat to the bond market which still remembers the dire days of the Volcker Fed when inflation was about as high as it is today but the 30Y was trading around 15%. The February auaction also illustrated that the world’s most important market was far less liquid and not as structurally robust as investors had hoped. It was an extreme example of a long-running issue: since the financial crisis the traditional providers of liquidity, a group of 24 Wall Street banks, have pulled back because of higher costs associated with post-2008 capital requirements, while leaving liquidity provision to the Fed. Those banks, in their reduced role, as well as the hedge funds and high-frequency traders that have stepped into their place, have tended to withdraw in moments of market volatility. Needless to say, with the Fed now tapering its record QE, we expect many more such "flash" episodes in the bond market in the year ahead. The arch ego of Archegos: In March 2021 several banks received a brutal reminder that some of family offices, which manage some $6 trillion in wealth of successful billionaires and entrepreneurs and which have minimal reporting requirements, take risks that would make the most serrated hedge fund manager wince, when Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management imploded in spectacular style. As we learned in late March when several high-flying stocks suddenly collapsed, Hwang - a former protege of fabled hedge fund group Tiger Management - had built up a vast pile of leverage using opaque Total Return Swaps with a handful of banks to boost bets on a small number of stocks (the same banks were quite happy to help despite Hwang’s having been barred from US markets in 2013 over allegations of an insider-trading scheme, as he paid generously for the privilege of borrowing the banks' balance sheet). When one of Archegos more recent bets, ViacomCBS, suddenly tumbled it set off a liquidation cascade that left banks including Credit Suisse and Nomura with billions of dollars in losses. Conveniently, as the FT noted, the damage was contained to the banks rather than leaking across financial markets, but the episode sparked a rethink among banks over how to treat these clients and how much leverage to extend. The second coming of cryptos: After hitting an all time high in late 2017 and subsequently slumping into a "crypto winter", cryptocurrencies enjoyed a huge rebound in early 2021 which sent their prices soaring amid fears of galloping inflation (as shown below, and contrary to some financial speculation, the crypto space has traditionally been a hedge either to too much liquidity or a hedge to too much inflation). As a result, Bitcoin rose to a series of new record highs that culminated at just below $62,000, nearly three times higher than their previous all time high. But the smooth ride came to a halt in May when China’s crackdown on the cryptocurrency and its production, or “mining”, sparked the first serious crash of 2021. The price of bitcoin then collapsed as much as 30% on May 19, hitting a low of $30,000 amid a liquidation of levered positions in chaotic trading conditions following a warning from Chinese authorities of tighter curbs ahead. A public acceptance by Tesla chief and crypto cheerleader Elon Musk of the industry’s environmental impact added to the declines. However, as with all previous crypto crashes, this one too proved transitory, and prices resumed their upward trajectory in late September when investors started to price in the launch of futures-based bitcoin exchange traded funds in the US. The launch of these contracts subsequently pushed bitcoin to a new all-time high in early November before prices stumbled again in early December, this time due to a rise in institutional ownership when an overall drop in the market dragged down cryptos as well. That demonstrated the growing linkage between Wall Street and cryptocurrencies, due to the growing sway of large investors in digital markets. China's common prosperity crash: China’s education and tech sectors were one of the perennial Wall Street darlings. Companies such as New Oriental, TAL Education as well as Alibaba and Didi had come to be worth billions of dollars after highly publicized US stock market flotations. So when Beijing effectively outlawed swaths of the country’s for-profit education industry in July 2021, followed by draconian anti-trust regulations on the country's fintech names (where Xi Jinping also meant to teach the country's billionaire class a lesson who is truly in charge), the short-term market impact was brutal. Beijing’s initial measures emerged as part of a wider effort to make education more affordable as part of president Xi Jinping’s drive for "common prosperity" but that quickly raised questions over whether growth prospects across corporate China are countered by the capacity of the government to overhaul entire business models overnight. Sure enough, volatility stemming from the education sector was soon overshadowed by another set of government reforms related to common prosperity, a crackdown on leverage across the real estate sector where the biggest casualty was Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer. The company, whose boss was not long ago China's 2nd richest man, was engulfed by a liquidity crisis in the summer that eventually resulted in a default in early December. Still, as the FT notes, China continues to draw in huge amounts of foreign capital, pushing the Chinese yuan to end 2021 at the strongest level since May 2018, a major hurdle to China's attempts to kickstart its slowing economy, and surely a precursor to even more monetary easing. Natgas hyperinflation: Natural gas supplanted crude oil as the world’s most important commodity in October and December as prices exploded to unprecedented levels and the world scrambled for scarce supplies amid the developed world's catastrophic transition to "green" energy. The crunch was particularly acute in Europe, which has become increasingly reliant on imports. Futures linked to TTF, the region’s wholesale gas price, hit a record €137 per megawatt hour in early October, rising more than 75%. In Asia, spot liquefied natural gas prices briefly passed the equivalent of more than $320 a barrel of oil in October. (At the time, Brent crude was trading at $80). A number of factors contributed, including rising demand as pandemic restrictions eased, supply disruptions in the LNG market and weather-induced shortfalls in renewable energy. In Europe, this was aggravated by plunging export volumes from Gazprom, Russia’s state-backed monopoly pipeline supplier, amid a bitter political fight over the launch of the Nordstream 2 pipeline. And with delays to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, analysts say the European gas market - where storage is only 66% full - a cold snap or supply disruption away from another price spike Turkey's (latest) currency crisis:  As the FT's Jonathan Wheatley writes, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was once a source of strength for the Turkish lira, and in his first five years in power from 2003, the currency rallied from TL1.6 per US dollar to near parity at TL1.2. But those days are long gone, as Erdogan's bizarre fascination with unorthodox economics, namely the theory that lower rates lead to lower inflation also known as "Erdoganomics", has sparked a historic collapse in the: having traded at about TL7 to the dollar in February, it has since fallen beyond TL17, making it the worst performing currency of 2021. The lira’s defining moment in 2021 came on November 18 when the central bank, in spite of soaring inflation, cut its policy rate for the third time since September, at Erdogan’s behest (any central banker in Turkey who disagrees with "Erdoganomics" is promptly fired and replaced with an ideological puppet). The lira recovered some of its losses in late December when Erdogan came up with the "brilliant" idea of erecting the infamous "doom loop" which ties Turkey's balance sheet to its currency. It has worked for now (the lira surged from TL18 against the dollar to TL12, but this particular band aid solution will only last so long). The lira’s problems are not only Erdogan’s doing. A strengthening dollar, rising oil prices, the relentless covid pandemic and weak growth in developing economies have been bad for other emerging market currencies, too, but as long as Erdogan is in charge, shorting the lira remains the best trade entering 2022. While these, and many more, stories provided a diversion from the boring existence of centrally-planned markets, we are confident that the trends observed in recent years will continue: coming years will be marked by even bigger government (because only more government can "fix" problems created by government), higher stock prices and dollar debasement (because only more Fed intervention can "fix" the problems created by the Fed), and a policy flip from monetary and QE to fiscal & MMT, all of which will keep inflation at scorching levels, much to the persistent confusion of economists everywhere. Of course, we said much of this last year as well, but while we got most trends right, we were wrong about one thing: we were confident that China's aggressive roll out of the digital yuan would be a bang - or as we put it "it is very likely that while 2020 was an insane year, it may prove to be just an appetizer to the shockwaves that will be unleashed in 2021 when we see the first stage of the most historic overhaul of the fiat payment system in history" - however it turned out to be a whimper. A big reason for that was that the initial reception of the "revolutionary" currency was nothing short of disastrous, with Chinese admitting they were "not at all excited" about the prospect of yet one more surveillance mechanism for Beijing, because that's really what digital currencies are: a way for central banks everywhere to micromanage and scrutinize every single transaction, allowing the powers that be to demonetize any one person - or whole groups - with the flick of a switch. Then again, while digital money may not have made its triumphant arrival in 2021, we are confident that the launch date has merely been pushed back to 2022 when the rollout of the next monetary revolution is expected to begin in earnest. Here we should again note one thing: in a world undergoing historic transformations, any free press must be throttled and controlled, and over the past year we have seen unprecedented efforts by legacy media and its corporate owners, as well as the new "social media" overlords do everything in their power to stifle independent thought. For us it had been especially "personal" on more than one occasions. Last January, Twitter suspended our account because we dared to challenge the conventional narrative about the source of the Wuhan virus. It was only six months later that Twitter apologized, and set us free, admitting it had made a mistake. Yet barely had twitter readmitted us, when something even more unprecedented happened: for the first time ever (to our knowledge) Google - the world's largest online ad provider and monopoly - demonetized our website not because of any complaints about our writing but because of the contents of our comment section. It then held us hostage until we agreed to implement some prerequisite screening and moderation of the comments section. Google's action was followed by the likes of PayPal, Amazon, and many other financial and ad platforms, who rushed to demonetize and suspend us simply because they disagreed with what we had to say. This was a stark lesson in how quickly an ad-funded business can disintegrate in this world which resembles the dystopia of 1984 more and more each day, and we have since taken measures. One year ago, for the first time in our 13 year history, we launched a paid version of our website, which is entirely ad and moderation free, and offers readers a variety of premium content. It wasn't our intention to make this transformation but unfortunately we know which way the wind is blowing and it is only a matter of time before the gatekeepers of online ad spending block us again. As such, if we are to have any hope in continuing it will come directly from you, our readers. We will keep the free website running for as long as possible, but we are certain that it is only a matter of time before the hammer falls as the censorship bandwagon rolls out much more aggressively in the coming year. That said, whether the story of 2022, and the next decade for that matter, is one of helicopter or digital money, of (hyper)inflation or deflation: what is key, and what we learned in the past decade, is that the status quo will throw anything at the problem to kick the can, it will certainly not let any crisis go to waste... even the deadliest pandemic in over a century. And while many already knew that, the events of 2021 made it clear to a fault that not even a modest market correction can be tolerated going forward. After all, if central banks aim to punish all selling, then the logical outcome is to buy everything, and investors, traders and speculators did just that armed with the clearest backstop guarantee from the Fed, which in the deapths of the covid crash crossed the Rubicon when it formally nationalized the bond market as it started buying both investment grade bonds and junk bond ETFs in the open market. As such it is no longer even a debatable issue if the Fed will buy stocks after the next crash - the only question is when. Meanwhile, for all those lamenting the relentless coverage of politics in a financial blog, why finance appears to have taken a secondary role, and why the political "narrative" has taken a dominant role for financial analysts, the past year showed vividly why that is the case: in a world where markets gyrated, and "rotated" from value stocks to growth and vice versa, purely on speculation of how big the next stimulus out of Washington will be, the narrative over Biden's trillions proved to be one of the biggest market moving events for much of the year. And with the Biden stimulus plan off the table for now, the Fed will find it very difficult to tighten financial conditions, especially if it does so just as the economy is slowing. Here we like to remind readers of one of our favorite charts: every financial crisis is the result of Fed tightening. As for predictions about the future, as the past two years so vividly showed, when it comes to actual surprises and all true "black swans", it won't be what anyone had expected. And so while many themes, both in the political and financial realm, did get some accelerated closure courtesy of China's covid pandemic, dramatic changes in 2021 persisted, and will continue to manifest themselves in often violent and unexpected ways - from the ongoing record polarization in the US political arena, to "populist" upheavals around the developed world, to the gradual transition to a global Universal Basic (i.e., socialized) Income regime, to China's ongoing fight with preserving stability in its gargantuan financial system which is now two and a half times the size of the US. As always, we thank all of our readers for making this website - which has never seen one dollar of outside funding (and despite amusing recurring allegations, has certainly never seen a ruble from the KGB either, although now that the entire Russian hysteria episode is over, those allegations have finally quieted down), and has never spent one dollar on marketing - a small (or not so small) part of your daily routine. Which also brings us to another critical topic: that of fake news, and something we - and others who do not comply with the established narrative - have been accused of. While we find the narrative of fake news laughable, after all every single article in this website is backed by facts and links to outside sources, it is clearly a dangerous development, and a very slippery slope that the entire developed world is pushing for what is, when stripped of fancy jargon, internet censorship under the guise of protecting the average person from "dangerous, fake information." It's also why we are preparing for the next onslaught against independent thought and why we had no choice but to roll out a premium version of this website. In addition to the other themes noted above, we expect the crackdown on free speech to accelerate in the coming year when key midterm elections will be held, especially as the following list of Top 20 articles for 2021 reveals, many of the most popular articles in the past year were precisely those which the conventional media would not touch out of fear of repercussions, which in turn allowed the alternative media to continue to flourish in an orchestrated information vacuum and take significant market share from the established outlets by covering topics which the public relations arm of established media outlets refused to do, in the process earning itself the derogatory "fake news" condemnation. We are grateful that our readers - who hit a new record high in 2021 - have realized it is incumbent upon them to decide what is, and isn't "fake news." * * * And so, before we get into the details of what has now become an annual tradition for the last day of the year, those who wish to jog down memory lane, can refresh our most popular articles for every year during our no longer that brief, almost 11-year existence, starting with 2009 and continuing with 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. So without further ado, here are the articles that you, our readers, found to be the most engaging, interesting and popular based on the number of hits, during the past year. In 20th spot with 600,000 reads, was an article that touched on one of the most defining features of the market: the reflation theme the sparked a massive rally at the start of the year courtesy of the surprise outcome in the Georgia Senate race, where Democrats ended up wining both seats up for grabs, effectively giving the Dems a majority in both the House and the Senate, where despite the even, 50-seat split, Kamala Harris would cast the winning tie-breaker vote to pursue a historic fiscal stimulus. And sure enough, as we described in "Bitcoin Surges To Record High, Stocks & Bonds Battered As Dems Look Set To Take Both Georgia Senate Seats", with trillions in "stimmies" flooding both the economy and the market, not only did retail traders enjoy unprecedented returns when trading meme "stonks" and forcing short squeezes that crippled numerous hedge funds, but expectations of sharply higher inflation also helped push bitcoin and the entire crypto sector to new all time highs, which in turn legitimized the product across institutional investors and helped it reach a market cap north of $3 trillion.  In 19th spot, over 613,000 readers were thrilled to read at the start of September that "Biden Unveils Most Severe COVID Actions Yet: Mandates Vax For All Federal Workers, Contractors, & Large Private Companies." Of course, just a few weeks later much of Biden's mandate would be struck down in courts, where it is now headed to a decision by SCOTUS, while the constantly shifting "scientific" goal posts mean that just a few months later the latest set of CDC regulations have seen regulators and officials reverse the constant drone of fearmongering and are now even seeking to cut back on the duration of quarantine and other lockdown measures amid a public mood that is growing increasingly hostile to the government response. One of the defining political events of 2021 was the so-called "Jan 6 Insurrection", which the for America's conservatives was blown wildly out of proportion yet which the leftist media and Democrats in Congress have been periodically trying to push to the front pages in hopes of distracting from the growing list of failures of the Obama admin. Yet as we asked back in January, "Why Was Founder Of Far-Left BLM Group Filming Inside Capitol As Police Shot Protester?" No less than 614,000 readers found this question worthy of a response. Since then many more questions have emerged surrounding this event, many of which focus on what role the FBI had in organizing and encouraging this event, including the use of various informants and instigators. For now, a response will have to wait at least until the mid-term elections of 2022 when Republicans are expected to sweep one if not both chambers. Linked to the above, the 17th most read article of 2021 with 617,000 views, was an article we published on the very same day, which detailed that "Armed Protesters Begin To Arrive At State Capitols Around The Nation." At the end of the day, it was much ado about nothing and all protests concluded peacefully and without incident: perhaps the FBI was simply spread too thin? 2021 was a year defined by various waves of the covid pandemic which hammered poor Americans forced to hunker down at home and missing on pay, and crippled countless small mom and pop businesses. And yet, it was also a bonanza for a handful of pharma companies such as Pfizer and Moderna which made billions from the sale of "vaccines" which we now know do little if anything to halt the spread of the virus, and are instead now being pitched as palliatives, preventing a far worse clinical outcome. The same pharma companies also benefited from an unconditional indemnity, which surely would come in useful when the full side-effects of their mRNA-based therapies became apparent. One such condition to emerge was myocarditis among a subset of the vaxxed. And while the vaccines continue to be broadly rolled out across most developed nations, one place that said enough was Sweden. As over 620,000 readers found out in "Sweden Suspends Moderna Shot Indefinitely After Vaxxed Patients Develop Crippling Heart Condition", not every country was willing to use its citizens as experimental guniea pigs. This was enough to make the article the 16th most read on these pages, but perhaps in light of the (lack of) debate over the pros and cons of the covid vaccines, this should have been the most read article this year? Moving on to the 15th most popular article, 628,000 readers were shocked to learn that "Chase Bank Cancels General Mike Flynn's Credit Cards." The action, which was taken by the largest US bank due to "reputational risk" echoed a broad push by tech giants to deplatform and silence dissenting voices by literally freezing them out of the financial system. In the end, following widespread blowback from millions of Americans, JPMorgan reversed, and reactivated Flynn's cards saying the action was made in error, but unfortunately this is just one example of how those in power can lock out any dissenters with the flick of a switch. And while democrats cheer such deplatforming today, the political winds are fickle, and we doubt they will be as excited once they find themselves on the receiving end of such actions. And speaking of censorship and media blackouts, few terms sparked greater response from those in power than the term Ivermectin. Viewed by millions as a cheap, effective alternative to offerings from the pharmaceutical complex, social networks did everything in their power to silence any mention of a drug which the Journal of Antibiotics said in 2017 was an "enigmatic multifaceted ‘wonder’ drug which continues to surprise and exceed expectations." Nowhere was this more obvious than in the discussion of how widespread use of Ivermectin beat Covid in India, the topic of the 14th most popular article of 2021 "India's Ivermectin Blackout" which was read by over 653,000 readers. Unfortunately, while vaccines continue to fail upward and now some countries are now pushing with a 4th, 5th and even 6th vaccine, Ivermectin remains a dirty word. There was more covid coverage in the 13th most popular article of 2021, "Surprise Surprise - Fauci Lied Again": Rand Paul Reacts To Wuhan Bombshell" which was viewed no less than 725,000 times. Paul's reaction came following a report which revealed that Anthony Fauci's NIAID and its parent, the NIH, funded Gain-of-Function research in Wuhan, China, strongly hinting that the emergence of covid was the result of illicit US funding. Not that long ago, Fauci had called Paul a 'liar' for accusing him of funding the risky research, in which viruses are genetically modified or otherwise altered to make them more transmissible to humans. And while we could say that Paul got the last laugh, Fauci still remains Biden's top covid advisor, which may explain why one year after Biden vowed he would shut down the pandemic, the number of new cases just hit a new all time high. One hope we have for 2022 is that people will finally open their eyes... 2021 was not just about covid - soaring prices and relentless inflation were one of the most poignant topics. It got so bad that Biden's approval rating - and that of Democrats in general - tumbled toward the end of the year, putting their mid-term ambitions in jeopardy, as the public mood soured dramatically in response to the explosion in prices. And while one can debate whether it was due to supply-issues, such as the collapse in trans-pacific supply chains and the chronic lack of labor to grow the US infrastructure, or due to roaring demand sparked by trillions in fiscal stimulus, but when the "Big Short" Michael Burry warned that hyperinflation is coming, the people listened, and with over 731,000 reads, the 12th most popular article of 2021 was "Michael Burry Warns Weimar Hyperinflation Is Coming."  Of course, Burry did not say anything we haven't warned about for the past 12 years, but at least he got the people's attention, and even mainstream names such as Twitter founder Jack Dorsey agreed with him, predicting that bitcoin will be what is left after the dollar has collapsed. While hyperinflation may will be the endgame, the question remains: when. For the 11th most read article of 2021, we go back to a topic touched upon moments ago when we addressed the full-blown media campaign seeking to discredit Ivermectin, in this case via the D-grade liberal tabloid Rolling Stone (whose modern incarnation is sadly a pale shadow of the legend that house Hunter S. Thompson's unforgettable dispatches) which published the very definition of fake news when it called Ivermectin a "horse dewormer" and claimed that, according to a hospital employee, people were overdosing on it. Just a few hours later, the article was retracted as we explained in "Rolling Stone Issues 'Update' After Horse Dewormer Hit-Piece Debunked" and over 812,000 readers found out that pretty much everything had been a fabrication. But of course, by then it was too late, and the reputation of Ivermectin as a potential covid cure had been further tarnished, much to the relief of the pharma giants who had a carte blanche to sell their experimental wares. The 10th most popular article of 2021 brings us to another issue that had split America down the middle, namely the story surrounding Kyle Rittenhouse and the full-blown media campaign that declared the teenager guilty, even when eventually proven innocent. Just days before the dramatic acquittal, we learned that "FBI Sat On Bombshell Footage From Kyle Rittenhouse Shooting", which was read by over 822,000 readers. It was unfortunate to learn that once again the scandal-plagued FBI stood at the center of yet another attempt at mass misinformation, and we can only hope that one day this "deep state" agency will be overhauled from its core, or better yet, shut down completely. As for Kyle, he will have the last laugh: according to unconfirmed rumors, his numerous legal settlements with various media outlets will be in the tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars.  And from the great US social schism, we again go back to Covid for the 9th most popular article of 2021, which described the terrifying details of one of the most draconian responses to covid in the entire world: that of Australia. Over 900,000 readers were stunned to read that the "Australian Army Begins Transferring COVID-Positive Cases, Contacts To Quarantine Camps." Alas, the latest surge in Australian cases to nosebleed, record highs merely confirms that this unprecedented government lockdown - including masks and vaccines - is nothing more than an exercise in how far government can treat its population as a herd of sheep without provoking a violent response.  The 8th most popular article of 2021 looks at the market insanity of early 2021 when, at the end of January, we saw some of the most-shorted, "meme" stocks explode higher as the Reddit daytrading horde fixed their sights on a handful of hedge funds and spent billions in stimmies in an attempt to force unprecedented ramps. That was the case with "GME Soars 75% After-Hours, Erases Losses After Liquidity-Constrained Robinhood Lifts Trading Ban", which profiled the daytrading craze that gave an entire generation the feeling that it too could win in these manipulated capital markets. Then again, judging by the waning retail interest, it is possible that the excitement of the daytrading army is fading as rapidly as it first emerged, and that absent more "stimmies" markets will remain the playground of the rich and central banks. Kyle Rittenhouse may soon be a very rich man after the ordeal he went through, but the media's mission of further polarizing US society succeeded, and millions of Americans will never accept that the teenager was innocent. It's also why with just over 1 million reads, the 7th most read article on Zero Hedge this year was that "Portland Rittenhouse Protest Escalates Into Riot." Luckily, this is not a mid-term election year and there were no moneyed interests seeking to prolong this particular riot, unlike what happened in the summer of 2020... and what we are very much afraid will again happen next year when very critical elections are on deck.  With just over 1.03 million views, the 6th most popular post focused on a viral Twitter thread on Friday from Dr Robert Laone, which laid out a disturbing trend; the most-vaccinated countries in the world are experiencing  a surge in COVID-19 cases, while the least-vaccinated countries were not. As we originally discussed in ""This Is Worrying Me Quite A Bit": mRNA Vaccine Inventor Shares Viral Thread Showing COVID Surge In Most-Vaxxed Countries", this trend has only accelerated in recent weeks with the emergence of the Omicron strain. Unfortunately, instead of engaging in a constructive discussion to see why the science keeps failing again and again, Twitter's response was chilling: with just days left in 2021, it suspended the account of Dr. Malone, one of the inventors of mRNA technology. Which brings to mind something Aaron Rogers said: "If science can't be questioned it's not science anymore it's propaganda & that's the truth." In a year that was marked a flurry of domestic fiascoes by the Biden administration, it is easy to forget that the aged president was also responsible for the biggest US foreign policy disaster since Vietnam, when the botched evacuation of Afghanistan made the US laughing stock of the world after 12 US servicemembers were killed. So it's probably not surprising that over 1.1 million readers were stunned to watch what happened next, which we profiled in the 5th most popular post of 2021, where in response to the Afghan trajedy, "Biden Delivers Surreal Press Conference, Vows To Hunt Down Isis, Blames Trump." One person watching the Biden presser was Xi Jinping, who may have once harbored doubts about reclaiming Taiwan but certainly does not any more. The 4th most popular article of 2021 again has to do with with covid, and specifically the increasingly bizarre clinical response to the disease. As we detailed in "Something Really Strange Is Happening At Hospitals All Over America" while emergency rooms were overflowing, it certainly wasn't from covid cases. Even more curiously, one of the primary ailments leading to an onslaught on ERs across the nation was heart-related issues, whether arrhytmia, cardiac incidents or general heart conditions. We hope that one day there will be a candid discussion on this topic, but until then it remains one of the topics seen as taboo by the mainstream media and the deplatforming overlords, so we'll just leave it at that. We previously discussed the anti-Ivermectin narrative that dominated the mainstream press throughout 2021 and the 3rd most popular article of the year may hold clues as to why: in late September, pharma giant Pfizer and one of the two companies to peddle an mRNA based vaccine, announced that it's launching an accelerated Phase 2/3 trial for a COVID prophylactic pill designed to ward off COVID in those may have come in contact with the disease. And, as we described in "Pfizer Launches Final Study For COVID Drug That's Suspiciously Similar To 'Horse Paste'," 1.75 million readers learned that Pfizer's drug shared at least one mechanism of action as Ivermectin - an anti-parasitic used in humans for decades, which functions as a protease inhibitor against Covid-19, which researchers speculate "could be the biophysical basis behind its antiviral efficiency." Surely, this too was just another huge coincidence. In the second most popular article of 2021, almost 2 million readers discovered (to their "shock") that Fauci and the rest of Biden's COVID advisors were proven wrong about "the science" of COVID vaccines yet again. After telling Americans that vaccines offer better protection than natural infection, a new study out of Israel suggested the opposite is true: natural infection offers a much better shield against the delta variant than vaccines, something we profiled in "This Ends The Debate' - Israeli Study Shows Natural Immunity 13x More Effective Than Vaccines At Stopping Delta." We were right about one thing: anyone who dared to suggest that natural immunity was indeed more effective than vaccines was promptly canceled and censored, and all debate almost instantly ended. Since then we have had tens of millions of "breakout" cases where vaccinated people catch covid again, while any discussion why those with natural immunity do much better remains under lock and key. It may come as a surprise to many that the most read article of 2021 was not about covid, or Biden, or inflation, or China, or even the extremely polarized US congress (and/or society), but was about one of the most long-suffering topics on these pages: precious metals and their prices. Yes, back in February the retail mania briefly targeted silver and as millions of reddit daytraders piled in in hopes of squeezing the precious metal higher, the price of silver surged higher only to tumble just as quickly as it has risen as the seller(s) once again proved more powerful than the buyers. We described this in "Silver Futures Soar 8%, Rise Above $29 As Reddit Hordes Pile In", an article which some 2.4 million gold and silver bugs read with hope, only to see their favorite precious metals slump for much of the rest of the year. And yes, the fact that both gold and silver ended the year sharply lower than where they started even though inflation hit the highest level in 40 years, remains one of the great mysteries of 2021. With all that behind us, and as we wave goodbye to another bizarre, exciting, surreal year, what lies in store for 2022, and the next decade? We don't know: as frequent and not so frequent readers are aware, we do not pretend to be able to predict the future and we don't try despite endless allegations that we constantly predict the collapse of civilization: we leave the predicting to the "smartest people in the room" who year after year have been consistently wrong about everything, and never more so than in 2021 (even the Fed admitted it is clueless when Powell said it was time to retire the term "transitory"), which destroyed the reputation of central banks, of economists, of conventional media and the professional "polling" and "strategist" class forever, not to mention all those "scientists" who made a mockery of the "expertise class" with their bungled response to the covid pandemic. We merely observe, find what is unexpected, entertaining, amusing, surprising or grotesque in an increasingly bizarre, sad, and increasingly crazy world, and then just write about it. We do know, however, that after a record $30 trillion in stimulus was conjured out of thin air by the world's central banks and politicians in the past two years, the attempt to reverse this monetary and fiscal firehose in a world addicted to trillions in newly created liquidity now that central banks are freaking out after finally getting ot the inflation they were hoping to create for so long, will end in tears. We are confident, however, that in the end it will be the very final backstoppers of the status quo regime, the central banking emperors of the New Normal, who will eventually be revealed as fully naked. When that happens and what happens after is anyone's guess. But, as we have promised - and delivered - every year for the past 13, we will be there to document every aspect of it. Finally, and as always, we wish all our readers the best of luck in 2022, with much success in trading and every other avenue of life. We bid farewell to 2021 with our traditional and unwavering year-end promise: Zero Hedge will be there each and every day - usually with a cynical smile - helping readers expose, unravel and comprehend the fallacy, fiction, fraud and farce that defines every aspect of our increasingly broken system. Tyler Durden Sun, 01/02/2022 - 03:44.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytJan 2nd, 2022

Elon Musk hints he"s a dogecoin fan because bitcoin just gives power to new rich people

Musk was weighing in on a Twitter discussion joined by bitcoin enthusiast Jack Dorsey and dogecoin creator Billy Markus, among others. Tesla boss Elon Musk reiterates his support for dogecoin.Ringo H.W. Chiu/AP Tesla CEO Elon Musk voiced support for dogecoin again, this time in a discussion about Web3. He hinted he favors the meme token over bitcoin because the leading crypto only gives power to new rich people. Musk was responding to a Twitter conversation with Jack Dorsey, dogecoin creator Billy Markus, and others. Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell. Elon Musk has hinted his support for dogecoin comes from the fact the meme coin is powered by a disruptive, grassroots community — unlike bitcoin, with its Wall Street establishment backers.The Tesla CEO was weighing in on a Twitter discussion about who has power in the crypto world, carried out by bitcoin enthusiast Jack Dorsey and dogecoin creator Billy Markus, among others.Dorsey elaborated on why he's critical of venture capital's influence on Web3, the next generation of the internet that underpins the likes of the metaverse.The Block CEO and Twitter cofounder said while he isn't against the Ethereum blockchain, which is at the core of decentralized applications within the Web3 vision, he is opposed to corporate control.Meanwhile, Markus said: "I mean my goal is to build stuff and make money and have fun. I'm used to the corporate establishment and don't really see any meaningful break away from it — bitcoin just gives power to new rich people."To that, Musk responded: "That's why I'm pro Doge."@elonmusk/TwitterDogecoin, a meme-inspired cryptocurrency started as a joke in 2013 by software engineers Markus and Jackson Palmer, has shot up in popularity and price this year. Its rise has been fueled by a lighthearted community that backs the altcoin as a form of disruption to Wall Street's established financial institutions.It's similar in that to this year's Reddit-fuelled trading frenzy, which ignited heavily-shorted stocks like GameStop to send a clear message to the financial elite: power lies even with regular traders. Dogecoin is somewhat seen as a crypto-version of GameStop.Meanwhile, bitcoin has seen considerable interest not just from retail traders, but also from institutions and other corporate heavyweights — including names like BlackRock and BNY Mellon. Dogecoin hasn't managed to capture similar backing.Billionaire Musk — who made Newsweek's Disruptor Hall of Fame this year — has been a consistent doge advocate this year. Earlier in December, he announced Tesla would begin accepting dogecoin as payment for some of its merchandise. He first hinted in May that this could happen.But his support for the dog-themed meme token, rather than bitcoin, also appears rooted in its usefulness. "Bitcoin may be a store of value, but it is not a good substitute for transactional currency," Musk told Time magazine after it named him Person of the Year. "Even though it was created as a silly joke, dogecoin is better suited for transactions."He's also joked that it could become the future of cryptocurrencies. "Fate loves irony," he told celebrity news website TMZ in May. "What would be the most ironic outcome? That the currency that was invented as a joke in fact becomes the real currency."Although he started tweeting about it in 2019, Musk's heavy endorsements of his "fav cryptocurrency" led to a surge in the token's price this year. Dogecoin hit an all-time high of 73 cents on May 8, according to data from CoinGecko. It was trading at 17 cents per coin at last check on Thursday, and is up 3,634% year-to-date.Musk has said that his crypto portfolio consists of bitcoin, ether, and dogecoin — "that's it."Read More: Gen Z and millennials are expected to inherit over $60 trillion in wealth by 2050. Cowen shares 10 stocks to capture the wealth transfer — including 3 expected to surge over 70%.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderDec 23rd, 2021

ETFs to Bet on Popular Investment Themes of 2021

Here we discuss some ETFs that can lend investors exposure to the thematic investing trends of 2021. This year’s headlines were mostly dominated by pandemic-related updates, leaving investors in a continuous quest for good options for putting their money in. Amid the pandemic-related concerns, thematic investing continues to be a popular trend.Meanwhile, the discovery of variants like Delta and Omicron made investors increasingly apprehensive about another round of lockdowns in 2021. Presently, market participants remain concerned about the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s decision to speed up the tapering prices or hike the interest rates sooner.Against this backdrop, let’s take a look at some of the themes that are trending in the investment world:Blockchain and CryptocurrencyBlockchain came into the limelight as the underlying technology for the most popular cryptocurrency — Bitcoin. An article on Investor’s Business Daily has defined blockchain technology as a shared public ledger, also known as a distributed database, which tracks and records transactions in a transparent and tamper-proof way.The estimates for the uptake of this technology are mind-boggling. Deutsche Bank expects blockchain systems to record transactions for about 10% of worldwide GDP by 2027.Cryptocurrency also ruled the headlines as investors kept on tracking the major movements in some digital coins like Bitcoins, Ethereum, Dogecoin and many others. Notable events ranging from the IPO of the biggest cryptocurrency trading platform, Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN), to El Salvador accepting Bitcoin as legal tender to the launch of the first bitcoin futures ETF in the United States, all highlight the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies.Here are some options for investors to consider to join the trend, one of them being the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF BITO. Those aiming to have an indirect exposure can consider ETFs with exposure to Coinbase. Coinbase has exposure to funds, including VanEck Digital Transformation ETF DAPP and Simplify Volt Fintech Disruption ETF (VFIN). Blockchain ETFs like Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF BLOK may also be tracked by investors (read: Should You Invest in Bitcoin ETFs Now?).Meme Stock FrenzyMeme stocks caught investor attention due to hype on social media and online forums like Reddit, WallStreetBets and Robinhood, instead of focus on the company fundamentals, leading to a surge in trading volumes and share price. Thus, these are considered speculative trades. Meme stocks are triggered by small traders who cause a short squeeze on the stock. Some popular meme names of 2021 are videogame retailer GameStop (GME), movie theater operator AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) and Blackberry (BB).In order to ride the meme stocks frenzy, Tuttle Capital Management introduced The Fear of Missing Out ETF FOMO in 2021 that could lower the risk of investing in a single stock. FOMO ETF offers investors a new tool for leveraging the retail trading boom by investing in all the buzziest “meme stocks” and funds.Clean Energy ETFsAlternative energy includes any energy source that acts as a replacement for conventional and non-renewable fossil fuels. This space has been in the spotlight of late for many reasons. Increasingly, large corporations are making or promising investments to gain a carbon-neutral status.Favorable government initiatives and federal policies, including tax incentives to encourage installation, have continued to accelerate global market growth for clean energy in 2021. Moreover, despite turbulences stemming from the coronavirus pandemic, both solar and wind energies have been dominating the global renewable space.President Joe Biden is expected to talk about climate emergencies on global platforms and ensure that the United States will achieve 100% clean energy economy and net-zero emissions, at least by 2050. Moreover, he pledged to reduce the U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to half by 2030, as stated in a Yahoo Finance article.Thus, investors can consider the following ETFs, such as iShares Global Clean Energy ETF ICLN, Invesco Solar ETF  TAN,  First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund (QCLN) and ALPS Clean Energy ETF  (ACES) (read: Best ETFs for the Infrastructure Boom & Megatrends).Digital Payment ETFsThe world is gradually moving toward digitization, increasing the dominance of technology in the financial sector. A Market Data Forecast (MDF) report also highlights the growing opportunities in the global financial technology market, which is expected to see a CAGR of 23.4% between 2021 and 2026. According to the report, the fintech space is expected to reach a market value of around $324 billion by 2026.Along with an increased interest in online shopping, customers are resorting to digital payments to clear their bills. At the same time, merchants and utility providers are increasingly advocating the same.In such a scenario, investors can check out ETFMG Prime Mobile Payments ETF  IPAY,  Ecofin Digital Payments Infrastructure Fund  TPAY and  Global X FinTech ETF  (FINX) (read:  A Comprehensive Guide to Fintech ETFs).AI, Robotics & Cyber Security ETFsAI is fast changing the business landscape by expanding opportunities, driving revenues and enhancing efficiencies. It helps enhance almost everything, including advertising, healthcare, robotics, retail, video streaming, gaming and urban development.We live in an era largely dominated by AI applications and technological advancements. Amid the coronavirus crisis, demand for online services increased, which led to the dominance of AI. Globally, the AI market is estimated to see a CAGR of 29%, rising from $42.8 billion in 2019 to $152.9 billion in 2023, according to an Analytics Insight article.The robotics market is flooded with opportunities as robots are being used for jobs, such as sanitizing hospitals, homes and workplaces, along with monitoring, surveying, handling, and delivering food and medicines.However, the increasing adoption of these technologies is exposing businesses, governments and organizations to cyber risks. Given the severity of the situation, Cybersecurity Ventures expects the worldwide expenditure on cybersecurity to surpass $1 trillion cumulatively from 2017 through 2021.Per a Grand View Research report, the global cybersecurity market is expected to reach $241.1 billion, witnessing a CAGR of 11% from 2019 to 2025. Accordingly, our investors can consider  Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF  BOTZ,  First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF  ROBT,  ROBO Global Robotics & Automation ETF  (ROBO),  iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF  (IRBO),  First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF CIBR and  ETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF  (HACK). Infrastructure Stock Boom to Sweep America A massive push to rebuild the crumbling U.S. infrastructure will soon be underway. It’s bipartisan, urgent, and inevitable. Trillions will be spent. Fortunes will be made. The only question is “Will you get into the right stocks early when their growth potential is greatest?” Zacks has released a Special Report to help you do just that, and today it’s free. Discover 7 special companies that look to gain the most from construction and repair to roads, bridges, and buildings, plus cargo hauling and energy transformation on an almost unimaginable scale.Download FREE: How to Profit from Trillions on Spending for Infrastructure >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Invesco Solar ETF (TAN): ETF Research Reports iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN): ETF Research Reports First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR): ETF Research Reports Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ): ETF Research Reports ETFMG Prime Mobile Payments ETF (IPAY): ETF Research Reports Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK): ETF Research Reports First Trust NASDAQ Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF (ROBT): ETF Research Reports Ecofin Digital Payments Infrastructure Fund (TPAY): ETF Research Reports VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP): ETF Research Reports FOMO ETF (FOMO): ETF Research Reports ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 12th, 2021

Avoid politics at Thanksgiving and talk about markets instead. Here"s a refresher on the craziest stories this year, from meme stocks to NFTs.

The year began with GameStop shares soaring and is ending with an internet group trying to buy the US Constitution. The Thanksgiving turkey.Hiroko Masuike/Getty Images Markets have been on a wild ride in 2021 amid new phenomena like meme stocks, NFTs, and DAOs. The year began with shares of GameStop soaring and is ending with a DAO trying to buy the US Constitution. Here are 10 conversation starters about markets to avoid politics at Thanksgiving this year. Forget politics at your Thanksgiving dinner this year. Talk markets.Think about everything that happened this year, starting with an army of retail traders causing GameStop shares to spike, to cute Japanese puppies becoming the mascots for a crypto revolution, and ending in a bunch of internet friends trying to buy the US Constitution. So here's a refresher of what happened with 10 possible ideas to get the conversation going on Thanksgiving.1) What's your favorite meme stock?Meme stocks became the first big market event this year when an army of retail traders mobilized on Reddit to drive up the prices of cheap stocks like GameStop, AMC, and BlackBerry. Then well-known trading app Robinhood halted the buying of meme stocks, initiating an uproar from traders, a Congressional hearing and a regulatory report. The meme-stock phenomenon has continued throughout the year, with new companies constantly added to the basket. For some, AMC is still their favorite. It's now accepting cryptocurrency as payment, and its CEO is a hit among retail traders.2) Want to see my NFT?Non-fungible tokens surged in popularity this year, and now the market as a whole is worth billions of dollars. The tokens are generally digital pieces of art tied to the blockchain. They're worth anywhere from a handful of dollars to millions of dollars. If you're really a crypto enthusiast, you might even bring your tungsten cube to Thanksgiving dinner. The cubes have become all the rage in the crypto world for their small size and surprising density. Shiba inu dog.Yuki Cheung/EyeEm/Getty3) I've been thinking about buying a shiba inu! (The puppy not the coin; I already have that).Demand for the Japanese hunting dogs has surged this year along with the price of meme coins like dogecoin and shiba inu coin. The cryptocurrencies, whose mascot is the shiba inu, have garnered the attention of the retail investing crowd, in addition to Tesla CEO Elon Musk and AMC CEO Adam Aron. Another shiba inu-based coin called Floki, a reference to Musk's new Japanese pup, has also joined the space. Be careful if you want to buy in, though, the cryptocurrencies — and the dogs — can be volatile. 4) How's your home improvement project going with those crazy lumber prices?Inflation is at 30-year highs thanks to a bevy of factors like shortages, supply chain bottlenecks, and government stimulus checks, among others. The price of lumber, along with a lot of other costs, surged this year as first-time buyers joined the housing market and current homeowners made updates. More recently, lumber prices have since slumped from highs earlier in the year. 5) I ordered my PS5 forever ago. One wrong turn in the Suez Canal, and I'm stuck with what I've got.In March, the Ever Given cargo ship became lodged in the pivotal waterway, prompting memes and adding to supply chain problems. After about a week blocking the canal, a fleet of tugboats and a dredger successfully freed the vessel. 6) Have you seen my Facebook — ahem, the company formerly known as Facebook — posts lately?Facebook is no longer Facebook. In October, it rebranded to Meta as it plans to move into virtual reality and the future of the internet that has been dubbed the metaverse. Since then, the concept of the metaverse has become mainstream. Elon Musk.Picture Alliance/Getty Images7) Let's talk about voting! Did you vote yes or no on Elon Musk's poll to sell his Tesla shares?Musk posted a poll on Twitter on Nov. 6 asking if he should sell 10% of his stake in Tesla. The resounding answer was yes, and he's so far offloaded about $9 billion worth of shares. The Tesla chief's tweets have become increasingly influential this year, as his posts about digital assets, like dogecoin, bitcoin, and ethereum, have helped drive broad crypto rallies. On top of that, his own company has joined the $1 trillion club, and he's now the wealthiest man in the world.8) What did you think of Squid Game? The Netflix hit show that garnered more than 140 million viewers, according to Forbes, also inspired a cryptocurrency that soared in value in a matter of days in October. But it was a scam. The owners took their profits and the crypto went offline. 9) How much did you make off Trump's SPAC?Blank-check companies known as SPACs were once a little known way for companies to go public, but during the pandemic they became wildly popular. Former president Donald Trump used one called Digital World Acquisition Corp. to take his company, Trump Media & Technology Group, public. DWAC shares quickly became a meme and surged in value on the news.10) Can someone please explain to me what a DAO is?It's a decentralized autonomous organization, better yet, it's just a bunch of internet friends getting together to accomplish a goal. One DAO bought the secretive Wu-Tang Clan album once owned by infamous pharma bro Martin Shkreli. Another tried to purchase the Constitution but was outbid by Citadel Securities' Founder Ken Griffin. Now one is trying to buy an NBA team. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytNov 23rd, 2021

A former Goldman Sachs boss says millennials were right to splurge their stimulus checks on crypto and meme stocks, and to stick it to Wall Street

Raoul Pal noted that the Occupy Wall Street movement fell on deaf ears, and young investors don't care what the establishment says. YouTube/RealVision Raoul Pal defended millennials who like meme stocks and crypto and defy typical investing advice. The former Goldman Sachs executive noted that young investors don't care what Wall Street says. Pal suggested investing will be driven by a shift in interest towards technology. Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager and the current CEO of Real Vision TV, defended the millennial investors who have piled into cryptocurrencies and meme stocks in defiance of conventional investing strategies.In a Twitter thread on Sunday, Pal laid out that factors like "debts, no savings, no hope from the grind" have made this new generation of investors feel hopeless and skeptical of traditional investing."Unlike their parents in their 30s, they didn't get gifted equities with a P/E (price-earnings ratio) of 7, bond yields at 13% or real estate at the lows versus income," he said. "They got the opposite. Their opportunity set was an expected negative future return. They didn't want any part of our financial system."A P/E ratio as low as 7 would represent an extremely cheap valuation for many public companies. The average P/E for the S&P 500 rose above 20 in May 2020, its highest valuation in 18 years. A clear pattern emerged in markets this year. During one of the most volatile periods in history, and against a backdrop of increasing social influence, inexperienced investors rushed to invest in stocks with little understanding or concern for the fundamentals of the businesses behind them, or the risks of holding them. @RaoulGMI/Twitter "They had occupied Wall St and no one gave a shit. Now they don't give a shit about how you or I think you should invest or run markets. We let them down," Pal said.While some responsibility certainly lies with the investor, zero-commission apps like Robinhood played a part in making it seem like the risks of investing were minimized. In defiance of hedge funds and investing norms, and in response to inflationary triggers, Wall Street found itself dealing with two trading frenzies: meme stocks and cryptocurrencies. Pal said retail traders had no hesitance in using stimulus checks distributed by the government during COVID-19 towards these emergent trends because they had nothing to lose.He said there's a huge shift in attitude from the love of oil or commodities towards technology that will set the tone for the next decade."If we were given a free stake at the casino, we would do the same," he said. "But they didn't buy our precious gold miners, or our discounted value businesses. Why? Because they don't care about 10% returns. The only way to level the playing field was to take MASSIVE risk.""They took HUGE risks to make BIG rewards. And contrary to US older cynics, they knew the risks but they still wanted to take them. It was fun."More traditional finance experts warned against such get-rich-quick opportunities, and urged investors to buy diversified, long-term portfolios rather than chasing hot stocks.But Pal said there's no reason for millennials to wait for minimal returns."Screw active management, screw hedge funds," he said. "They wanted to just stick money in the markets as they were told (Hello passive!) and punt the rest. Crypto resonated. Huge upside, downside of zero. It was a giant options market. Limited losses, exponential upside. They are right."Read More: A growth-focused fund manager lays out why Facebook's metaverse pivot will send shares soaring - and details 8 other stocks investors should buy for exposure to cutting-edge innovationRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 1st, 2021

Top 10 Most Mentioned Cryptocurrencies On Social Media In 2021 – GlobalData

Cryptocurrency has become investors’ favorite digital asset and as a result the prices of several cryptos have rallied to make new highs this year. Against this backdrop, ‘Bitcoin’ has emerged as the most mentioned cryptocurrency in terms of social media conversations among Twitter Influencers and Redditors in 2021*, according to the Social Media Analytics Platform […] Cryptocurrency has become investors’ favorite digital asset and as a result the prices of several cryptos have rallied to make new highs this year. Against this backdrop, ‘Bitcoin’ has emerged as the most mentioned cryptocurrency in terms of social media conversations among Twitter Influencers and Redditors in 2021*, according to the Social Media Analytics Platform of GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Smitarani Tripathy, Social Media Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Social media conversations around crypto as a topic surged year-on-year by more than 400% in 2021*. Mentions by technical experts, blockchain experts, CEOs, and fintech experts were found to be more impactful to drive discussions around crypto.  Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla Inc, proved to be one of the most influential contributors for the crypto market, and played as a catalyst for top cryptos such as Bitcoin and Dogecoin.” Most Mentioned Cryptocurrencies On Social Media Bitcoin | 881,900+ Discussions Bitcoin gained the highest conversations on social media, when it traded above US$66,000, after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first US bitcoin futures exchange-traded funds for trading. Social media discussions also surged when Elon Musk tweeted about not accepting Bitcoins to buy Tesla cars over concerns about the environmental costs of crypto mining. Ethereum | 305,800+ Discussions Social media conversations around Ethereum soared when it outperformed Bitcoin. Ethereum’s association with ancillary growth sectors in the cryptocurrency world, such as decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and metaverse were some of the key drivers for its stellar performance. A rise in influencers discussions around Ethereum on GlobalData’s SMA was also noticed when Ethereum was hyped as the biggest metaverse token in crypto and being used most commonly for digital land. Dogecoin | 150,700+ Discussions Dogecoin emerged as the third most discussed crypto in 2021*, with more than 8,000% rise over 2020. Conversations around Dogecoin jumped when the crypto price skyrocketed after Elon Musk tweeted to launch a satellite named as DOGE-1 in 2022 and mentioned it as future of currency. The recent spike discussion around Dogecoin was majorly driven by Elon Musk’s tweet to accept Dogecoin for merchandise. Another spike around Dogecoin was recorded when it ranked among the top 10 cryptos by market capitalization, as the meme crypto took the cues from suspension of trading of GameStop at Robinhood. Polkadot, Binance Coin, Tether, Solana and Shiba INU were the other top mentioned cryptos among social media discussions in 2021*. Among these, social media conversations around Shiba INU, a so-called rival meme token of Dogecoin, surged more than 16,000% in 2021*, the highest growth when compared to other top 10 cryptocurrencies in 2021*. The highest spike in social media conversations around Shiba INU was driven by market speculation on listing of it in Robinhood as investors clamored through a petition which also led prices to touch the life-time high. * As on 09 December 2021 About GlobalData Social Media Analytics Platform GlobalData’s Social Media Analytics Platform allows businesses to understand brand sentiments, product led conversations, buzzing trends among Twitter Influencers and Redditors tracked by GlobalData, using a combination of AI and human based analysis that curate content and displays only what matters to you. It helps monitor competitor strategies, predict emerging trends, monetize disruptive innovation, decode smart money, mine thought leadership, and capture digital consumers. About GlobalData 4,000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make timelier and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors. Updated on Dec 22, 2021, 12:56 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkDec 23rd, 2021

AMC is offering NFTs to investors who own the stock following the success of its Spider-Man giveaway

The NFT is an image "of a moving and glimmering gold embossed medallion which proudly proclaims, 'I Own AMC,'" the company said. Igor Golovniov/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesIgor Golovniov/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Movie-theater chain AMC is offering an NFT free-of-charge to its shareholders. The NFT is a picture of a gold medallion that reads "I own AMC." AMC sold its first series of NFTs for early ticket buyers for the Spider-Man movie premiere. AMC is offering NFTs to owners of its stock after its successful Spider-Man giveaway. The Leawood, Kansas-based movie-theater company said current members of its investor rewards program, called Investor Connect, and those who join by purchasing a stock by the end of the year will receive a free non-fungible."As AMC Investor Connect is a program designed solely for self-identified AMC shareholders, the image contained in this NFT is that of a moving and glimmering gold embossed medallion which proudly proclaims, 'I Own AMC,'" the Monday press release said.AMC NFT. AMC and Business WireAMC and Business WireAMC got into the NFT space at the end of November when it offered 86,000 digital tokens to the first buyers of tickets to the Spider-Man movie premiere. The offering helped generate the movie chain's second best one-day sales for the premiere, according to AMC Chief Executive Officer Adam Aron, who has become known for reaching out to the hordes of retail traders backing his company.In a Monday tweet, Aron wrote, "Given AMC's Spider-Man NFT success, our first ever NFT, I am thrilled to announce our second ever NFT!" He dubbed it a "handsome" token and said the chain would give just one per member.This isn't the first time AMC has picked up on a trending moment. The company is already a meme stock. Its CEO has gone on a popular YouTube channel to reach the retail-trading crowd. The company has also begun accepting cryptocurrencies and hopes to add meme-coin shiba inu next.Now, it's NFTs, digital pieces of art tied to the blockchain that have boomed in demand this year. Total NFT sales are expected to hit reach $17.7 billion this year, according to research from Coin Telegraph. Some of the hype over the digital tokens has stemmed from metaverse enthusiasts who believe NFTs are the key to unlocking the next iteration of the internet.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderDec 6th, 2021

Resist the FOMO. An asset manager has created an ETF for "genuine investments" that shuns market crazes like crypto and meme stocks.

"It enables us to have a very high degree of confidence in the future," said Guy Davis, managing director at GCI Investors. Marianne Ayala/Insider A new exchange-traded fund from GCI Investors is getting back to the basics of investing.  "We are investing in underlying businesses and companies rather than just stocks," said Guy Davis. His potential losses, he said, are much lower than risking investments on meme stocks and crypto. One fund manager wants you to forget about the eye-popping gains from meme stocks and crypto and get back to the basics of investing."We sit very much at the opposite end of the spectrum to meme-stock investing," said Guy Davis, managing director at Houston, Texas-based GCI Investors. "We are investing in underlying businesses and companies rather than just stocks."Two companies he likes are UK-based online-grocery delivery company Ocado, which has rallied 545% in the past five years, and waste-management company GFL Environmental."Waste is an incredibly unsexy industry," he said. "Who would want to invest in a waste company when they can invest in a bitcoin mining company generating thousands of dollars in returns?"But he said the level of stable returns from a waste management company — even during lockdowns spurred by the pandemic — is "incredible." GFL went public in March 2020 when the pandemic was just starting. Since then, it's risen 120% to about $37. "You've got a very solid industry, and you've got something individually wonderful happening at the company that is going to boost your return on top of that. It enables us to have a very high degree of confidence in the future," he said.The firm's first exchange-traded fund, called the Genuine Investors ETF, launched December 1 under the ticker "GCIG." Waste management and grocery delivery may seem like a tough sell next to the massive gains of meme stocks like GameStop and AMC, which have gained 152% and 1,200% so far this year respectively, or the nearly 100% gain in the price of bitcoin. That's not to mention the eye-popping gains of 37,000% for some metaverse-related cryptocurrencies. But to someone who quickly became a bitcoin or meme-stock millionaire, Davis says, "Well done, fantastic news. Go and do something successful with it, because the chances of doing that again are infinitesimally small."He describes his investing approach as simplistic and old-fashioned. His Genuine Investors ETF holds 23 individual companies that the firm knows "inside and out" and that he said generally aren't subject to outside risks like regulatory whims or commodities prices."The potential returns might be slightly lower, but our potential losses are far more contained," he said. Davis said the stock market just provides opportunities, not information about companies. The S&P 500, he said, is no longer a measure of the largest companies but the "most popular" ones. Tesla, a favorite among retail traders excited about EVs and Elon Musk, is in the top five, he noted."The stock is huge; the company is tiny in terms of what it actually generates," he said.Davis said he knows what the companies he's investing in are worth, unlike bitcoin, which he said nobody "has any idea whether it's worth 50 cents or a billion dollars."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytDec 5th, 2021

5 things to know before the opening bell

In a special Black Friday edition of our markets newsletter, Insider is looking at our top stories from the past month. Good morning! Today we're bringing you a special edition, highlighting five of our top stories of the past month. We'll be back with a regular newsletter on Monday morning.Plus, it's Black Friday. Sign up today and become an Insider for our lowest annual subscription rate ever — just $38 for full access to everything we offer. Let's get into it.Hai Dinho, a crypto miner.Hai Dinho1. Meet Hai Dinho, a college student who uses his old laptop to mine shiba inu coin for free. He told Insider that he used the website UnMineable to download software that has allowed him to gather over 12,000 SHIB a day. (SHIB is one of the most popular meme-tokens of 2021.) Dinho broke down his strategy — and shared how others can mine coins too.2. A Federal court in Miami this month dismissed a class action lawsuit by retail investors claiming Citadel Securities and Robinhood conspired to halt GameStop trading. Many meme-stock traders believe the two companies worked together to halt the trading of certain stocks on January 28. "Internet conspiracies and Twitter mobs try to ignore the facts," Citadel wrote in response when #CitadelScandal trended on Twitter. The judge said that while some of the emails between the two firms were suspicious, they did not constitute overwhelming evidence of unlawful activity. 3. This 26-year-old built a $1 million real estate portfolio after starting out with an $18,000 loan. James Walker III told Insider he looks for tenant-friendly laws in areas where he purchases property. This allows for a more conducive environment to create positive cash flow. He explained his strategy, and why beginners should purchase their first homes through FHA. 4. What is a DAO and why did one just try to buy the US Constitution? A group of internet friends came together to form a DAO, or a decentralized autonomous organization, in a bid for an original copy of the US Constitution. Together they crowdfunded $46 million for the auction. They were in the running to win it, but Citadel's Ken Griffin outbid them. Still, the group's rapid fundraising has made the DAO the next big thing in the world of crypto. 5. A crypto trader is betting that the metaverse is about to explode. Mason Versluis scours the web for new projects that have the potential to go mainstream — and he sees metaverse-linked cryptos as the next big thing. Among other coins, he's been monitoring Decetraland's mana token, which is used in one of the most popular metaverse environments. These are his top five altcoin picks. Compiled by Phil Rosen. Feedback? Email prosen@insider.com or tweet @philrosenn.Sign up for more Insider newsletters here.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 26th, 2021

Reddit traders are waxing nostalgic over the pre-short squeeze days of GameStop — from $13 a year ago to $200 today, many are holding on for more gains ahead

"One year ago today GME closed at $13.90. Today GME closed at $213.90," one Redditor said of the GameStop ticker, getting more than 12,000 upvotes. GameStop store.VIEW press/Getty Images Reddit day traders are reminiscing about GameStop shares in double digits a year ago.  Since then, the army of retail investors have driven a more than 1,400% rally in the stock. In a post, traders said the company had even further to rally.  Reddit day traders are reminiscing about the time last year when GameStop stock was less than a tenth of what it's worth now."One year ago today GME closed at $13.90. Today GME closed at $213.90," one Redditor said of the GameStop ticker in the r/Superstonk thread. The post received more than 12,000 upvotes. That price represents a 1,438% rally in just one year. In that year, day traders mobilized on social media, such as Reddit's Wall Street Bets, to buy shares of a nostalgic brick-and-mortar company they believe in and squeeze short sellers.The trend became noticeable in January when shares started skyrocketing, eventually scoring prices beyond $300, despite Wall Street professionals advising prices at much lower levels. The mania led to a new class of assets called meme stocks and even a new Wall Street vocabulary that included words like "hodl," "MOASS," and "diamond hands." The GameStop rally came to a screeching halt on Jan. 28 when retail trading platform Robinhood  halted buying of GameStop shares, along with other meme-stock companies like AMC and BlackBerry. The pause prompted outrage from retail traders, a Congressional hearing, and a share slump back to double digits.All in all, it didn't totally dampen the spirits of the retail crowd. Shares picked up steam again in March and have remained in triple digits since. Now, retail traders are aiming for an even higher valuation.In the Tuesday post, some Redditors argued GameStop could eventually reach a $1 trillion valuation — a level vastly higher than the current $16 billion market capitalization and one reached only by a handful of companies, including Apple, Tesla, and Google parent Alphabet."A one trillion dollar market cap means $13k shares, which I think is entirely achievable within 3-5 years on fundamentals alone, without any squeeze action," wrote one Redditor. Redditors have remained bullish on the company's prospects, citing its new chairman in Chewy cofounder Ryan Cohen and the company's moves into the metaverse with its own platform for non-fungible tokens. To build out its push into the future internet, the company has been on a hiring spree for metaverse and NFT specialists. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 24th, 2021

Robinhood drops after trading platform discloses a data breach of 7 million customers and an extortion attempt by hackers

A hacker manipulated a customer support employee by phone and gained access to certain systems, the trading platform said. Robinhood. SOPA Images/Getty Images Robinhood stock fell Tuesday after the company said data on millions of customers was exposed in a data breach The hacker also attempted to extort a payment from the trading platform after the breach. The news elicited jeers and humor in the WallStreetBets community on Reddit. Robinhood stock fell Tuesday after the retail trading platform disclosed a security breach that exposed data on millions of its customers followed by an extortion attempt. A hacker on November 3 obtained a list of email addresses for about 5 million people and the full names of 2 million people for a different group, the company said in a blog post late Monday. The company, whose growth has been driven by retail investors using its app for commission-free trades on stocks, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and options, said it contained the attack and that it doesn't believe any Social Security numbers, bank account numbers, or debit card numbers were exposed. There hasn't been a financial loss to any customers as a result of the hack, it added. But for about 310 customers, the data breach exposed their names, dates of birth, and zip codes, with a subset of about 10 customers having more extensive account details revealed, the company said. Robinhood stock fell 3.8% to $36.52, near the closed in its July 29 trading debut, at $34.82. The hacker "socially engineered" a customer support employee by phone and gained access to certain customer support systems, Robinhood said. Social engineering is a technique used to manipulate people to obtain information about an organization."After we contained the intrusion, the unauthorized party demanded an extortion payment. We promptly informed law enforcement and are continuing to investigate the incident with the help of Mandiant, a leading outside security firm," said Robinhood. While Robinhood has been popular with retail customers, it also angered millions of users this year when it halted buying of GameStop and other meme stocks during a trading frenzy in January fueled by the WallStreetBets community on Reddit. "Wish I had hood puts," WallStreetBets community member Str wrote in a comment late Monday following Robinhood's breach announcement. "Wrong, it should be calls. Stocks go up on fines & breaches LOL," replied community member mpoozd. A put option contract essentially works as a bet that an asset's price will fall while a call option contract is used by traders who believe an underlying asset will rise. "Karma for staying with hood when you knew better," wrote The_Count_99. WallStreetBets member hi-imBen noted other companies have had similar hacking issues. "Coinbase, hulu, spotify, equifax, like a dozen undisclosed breaches... Hackers have had my email for a long time. This is short term impact but I know yall are thrilled to overhype the importance of this news so have fun!" "Maybe someone will hack into my account and do a better job with it than I did…," wrote HeftyResident.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytNov 9th, 2021

Shiba inu"s epic rally has lifted its market value to $40 billion, trumping old-school and meme stocks alike. Here are 6 household names it"s beating.

Shiba inu's ascent since it was created in August last year, has ensured that its market cap would trump some of the most iconic US brands. Shiba Inu NurPhoto Shiba Inu has a market cap of $40.45 billion, greater than some US household names, including meme stocks. AMC, Robinhood, General Mills, and Taco Bell owner Yum Brands lag the meme token in size of market valuation. Thanks to the "SHIBarmy," the price of shiba inu has rallied more than 950% in the past month. Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell. The unlikely and epic rise of shiba inu has propelled the meme-inspired cryptocurrency to a market valuation of more than $42 billion in recent days.That trumps the market worth of companies behind some of the most iconic US brands, as well as some meme stock darlings of the Reddit army.The total has fallen back to $40.45 billion as of early Saturday, according to CoinMarketCap data. But shiba inu's market capitalization has shot up since it was created in August last year.Thanks to the "SHIBarmy" - fervent fans of the coin - its price has rallied more than 950% in the past month. The rise has been spurred by Tesla CEO and crypto fan Elon Musk tweeting about his shiba inu puppy, and a crypto whale buying 276.7 billion coins. Shiba Inu is bigger than these 6 household and meme names in market cap: AMC Entertainment Holdings Noam Galai/Getty Images Ticker: AMCPrice per share: $35.37Market cap: $18.16 billionNotes: AMC, which has been around since 1920, is the largest movie theater chain in the US.AMC, which not long ago was flirting with bankruptcy, saw its stock price skyrocket this year as part of the meme stock buying spree among retail traders. Its shares have risen 1,568% this year so far.The crypto-friendly cinema chain has said it plans to accept bitcoin, ethereum, and litecoin for some payments, and announced it will take dogecoin for gift card payments after a Twitter poll was overwhelmingly in favor.AMC may even issue its own digital coin, its CEO Adam Aron said. Yum! Brands KFC SOPA Images Ticker: YUM Price per share: $124.94Market cap: $36.94 billionUS fast-food group Yum Brands is the owner of iconic brands like KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, which it operates worldwide.Based in Louisville, Kentucky, it has more than 50,000 restaurants in over 150 countries.Recently, Yum Brands snapped up an AI-powered platform to improve food prep and optimize delivery, part of a tech buying spree. Its shares are up 15% in 2021 so far. Robinhood Markets Trader MoMo Productions Ticker: HOODPrice per share: $34.97Market cap: $30.06 billionRobinhood is a US trading app and platform used by retail investors. It has built a roster of cryptocurrencies — such as bitcoin, ether and dogecoin — since it was established in 2013.Fans of shiba inu have called on Robinhood to add the coin to its crypto list, but its CEO Vlad Tenev has said the company is waiting for regulators to clarify the situation. Robinhood angered many customers earlier this year when it halted buying of GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks during an epic rally.Influential investor Cathie Wood's Ark Invest purchased $79.4 million worth of Robinhood shares this week, after the company reported disappointing earnings. Its stock has fallen more than 10% below its July IPO price of $38 per share. General Mills Cheerios Brandon Bell Ticker: GISPrice per share: $61.80Market cap: $37.43 billionMinneapolis-based General Mills, which traces its history back to 1856, is known for US household favorites like Cheerios, Progresso soup, Betty Crocker and Old El Paso. The packaged-food company has 100 brands across the world, including Jus-Rol in the UK and Latina pasta in Australia.Its products performed well during the pandemic, as people stuck at home stocked up. But its prospects were less clear as restrictions lifted and out-of-home dining came back, and as commodity costs rose.In spite of that, General Mills posted solid earnings in September, saying people are still baking like they did during lockdowns. Its stock is up 5.1% for the year so far. GameStop Gamer Philippe Desmazes Ticker: GMEPrice per share: $183.51Market cap: $14.04 billionSet up in 1984, GameStop is a video game retailer with stores across the US that became the focus of a retail-trading frenzy in January.Activist members of the Reddit forum WallStreetBets piled into the stock to try to drive its price higher and put a squeeze on institutional short sellers. GameStop's price skyrocketed more than 1,000% in just a few weeks. For the year so far, the stock is up 874%.Since the Reddit-fueled rally, GameStop management has made a push to become the Amazon of gaming with the help of Chewy cofounder Ryan Cohen. Warner Music Group Nigerian rapper and singer Burna Boy. Jared C. Tilton Ticker: WMGPrice per share: $49.49Market cap: $25.46 billionMultinational label conglomerate Warner Music Group counts Ed Sheeran, Bruno Mars, Nigerian singer and rapper Burna Boy, and rapper Lizzo among its artists. It is the world's third-largest company of its kind and has labels Warner Records, Atlantic and Parlophone on its roster.Stock in the music and entertainment group, founded in 1958, started trading on the Nasdaq exchange in June last year. Warner Music initially planned to go public in the first quarter of 2021, but pulled its IPO after the coronavirus outbreak slammed financial markets.The pandemic caused other problems for Warner Music. It caused supply problems, and its retail stores were closed. Concerts and video shoots were delayed.But analysts now expect the company to perform well, and its stock price rose after its earnings report Thursday. Its shares are up 30% for the year so far. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytOct 30th, 2021

Interview With Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev From The CNBC Disruptor 50 Summit

Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Vlad Tenev, Robinhood Co-Founder & CEO, live during the CNBC Disruptor 50 Summit today. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Interview With Robinhood Co-Founder & CEO Vlad Tenev JIM CRAMER: Thank you so much, Vlad. I am so glad you’re with us. How […] Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Vlad Tenev, Robinhood Co-Founder & CEO, live during the CNBC Disruptor 50 Summit today. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Interview With Robinhood Co-Founder & CEO Vlad Tenev JIM CRAMER: Thank you so much, Vlad. I am so glad you're with us. How have you been? VLAD TENEV: I'm glad to be with you, Jim. Good to see you again. CRAMER: Alright, so let's get the zeitgeist of Robinhood. When I first met you, had a great app, you thought that people would be attracted to, it younger people. Younger people have been completely turned off from the market for years. Where are we now between when I saw you as a disruptor multiple years ago and your current status of business? TENEV: Well I think it's fair to say that investing has become culturally relevant. It's everywhere. People are talking about investing like they do their other financial needs – spending and saving. And Robinhood has grown tremendously. Over 22 million customers use the platform as of Q2 and, you know, despite the growth, we still feel like we're just at the beginning and there's so many people out there that are still not investing. Over half of Americans don't have any investments outside of their individual retirement accounts or 401ks. And nearly 70% of 18 to 29 year-olds have no investments whatsoever, not to mention a lot of people globally who lack access to a functional banking system. So I think the trends are going in the right direction and we see a huge opportunity to continue democratizing and democratizing safely. And we see a world where nearly everyone is investing in some form or fashion. CRAMER: You and I have both agreed that democratization is the greatest force in finance in this period, but I want to be sure it's democratizing correctly. You mentioned people are investing. If you looked at your book of business, we learned from Gary Gensler, the Chairman of the SEC, this week average customer 31 years old, median account balance $240. How much of that money, and it's all hard earned of course, is in option trading, in crypto trading, or investing in common stocks? TENEV: Yeah, so the bulk of the activity has been investing in common stocks in terms of assets on the platform. Relatively few customers are pattern day traders, I think the number is 2% or so. We have customers trading options, but that's a relatively small percentage as well. A little bit over 10% on a typical month. So, the bulk of the activity is equities. And, you know, we definitely see an increasing interest this year in cryptos as well as that asset has become a little bit more mainstream. And the philosophy is to allow access to these assets at the lowest possible cost, make it available to people on a level playing field, but also do that safely. You know, it's incredibly important to provide the customer support, the stability, the high quality infrastructure and the educational content to make sure that the people that are investing, a large portion of whom are first time investors, are in the best possible position to succeed. So we absolutely believe in democratization. And you've heard me say this a bunch of times, but it has to be done safely and we recognize that responsibility. We've actually spent a lot of effort this year, and all the way through the pandemic, in making sure that we make lots and lots of investments to put our customers in the best possible position to succeed. In fact, just a couple of weeks ago, we announced rolling out 24/7 customer support via voice for everyone using the app and doing that across every issue for logged in customers. And I think it's hard to overstate how challenging it is to do that at scale, and do it in a high quality way. And I believe we also became one of the first, if not the first, in the cryptocurrency market to offer 24/7 voice support to all customers. CRAMER: Well let’s talk about, before we talk about the single source of truth and safety, which I know you have adopted to because you had to after what happened in the events in January. We'll get to those in a moment. How do we, you and I, if we were brainstorming, keep people doing responsible things when it comes to crypto? We've got some cryptos that are named after dogs and then we have actually dog variations. There's mutts, I mean, there's some of this stuff you put to sleep? I’m against that, I own a lot of adopted dogs. But I am concerned that you and I both know that a market itself could be irresponsible and there's nothing you can do. You can't tell people, I don't want you to buy a slice of crypto. How are you engaged in trying to make people more wise and how much of what you see in crypto would you describe as speculation as opposed to investment? TENEV: Yeah, I think this is a tricky balance in the business, right. And, you know, a lot of things that end up being quite serious in a bigger and bigger part of the financial system started out being underestimated and, you know, made fun of and ridiculed in some sense. So I think it's important to have that perspective and be balanced. And the way that we approach it is of course by clearly articulating what our values are. And you've heard me mentioned, our value of safety first, our top value. And, you know, the way we operationalize that through the product is to make sure that of the assets we list, we make it clear to customers what the asset is, in certain cases, this year earlier, we launched information labels on certain assets like volatile, exchange traded products, or companies that have entered bankruptcy or companies or products that are undergoing volatility. So it's important to inform people of what's going on and give people that information and it's a delicate balance because some people, a lot of people, actually do understand what they're doing and they know exactly what these products are, and they'd like to have exposure to them, alongside their other investments. And we have to make sure we allow that and sort of make sure the happy path of people who are responsibly interested in diversifying and having exposure to cryptocurrencies and different assets have the ability to do that through our product and have an excellent experience doing it as well. CRAMER: Alright, I know that is definitely your duty and you're fulfilling it. Let's talk about the report that came out. This is the staff report on equity and options market structuring conditions early 2021. I’m calling it the report. You and I have both read it. I want to dive into my first takeaway is that a lot of people who felt that there was a vast conspiracy of people – Citadel, for instance. You, me. That we were all somehow in on it to hurt people. I think that this report represents a complete vindication of that and if you feel that way, tell me why you think so. TENEV: Well, of course. You and I probably already knew that. And there's a lot of people on the internet that are going to be difficult to convince one way or another. I think, misinformation on the internet has been a big issue of our time. Of course, as I said and a bunch of TV interviews around that time and I know you and I have made it into some memes together on the internet over the last couple of months as well. Which, you know, has it's good and it's bad, as I'm sure you know. But the sort of cause for these restrictions that we had to impose, along with other brokers, was crystal clear. It was an unprecedented time where you had lots and lots of people that wanted to invest in a small handful of stocks at around the same time. And you know, the market wasn't really built for that. If you look at the core infrastructure of the market and the clearing and settlement system, and the way that everything works, I'm sure that when everything was built over the course of the past few decades, they just didn't anticipate social media people getting together and funneling money into a small number of stocks. So, I actually, I'm not really making a value judgment on whether that's good or bad. I think people should be allowed to communicate with each other and buy the stocks that they're interested in buying. And moreover I think what's interesting is a lot of these companies a lot of these meme stocks are companies that have been hit hard by the pandemic. You have, you know, retailers, brick and mortar stores. You had the airlines getting the attention of retail customers in the early part of the pandemic. And you could argue, you know, the government hasn't stepped in to help them in this difficult time, and retail investors have come in and supplied them with capital and allowed them to grow their management teams. So it is a very interesting thing that I don't think we've entirely unpacked. But I did appreciate that the report mentioned my policy suggestion of shortening the settlement time. I think regardless, that's the right move for the industry, and the right way to move forward our financial system and reduce systemic risk. So, I was really happy to see that, alongside a number of other policy proposals that Robinhood and myself personally have made. CRAMER: Now they didn't really – when I spoke to Chairman Gensler it was clear that he is concerned about two issues we have to speak about. One is payment for order flow and whether people know about it and the other is the game like features. Now I was out last night with a big Robinhood fan. 19 year old gentleman. And I said what draws you to Robinhood? And he said, because the app is so much like Candy Crush. It was not the answer I expected. Is the app too much like Candy Crush, Vlad? TENEV: No, I think that's – as someone who played Candy Crush maybe 10 years ago or so, I can tell you that I don't see any similarities whatsoever. And I will say this – CRAMER: But the customer can’t always be right. Maybe something needs to be done to dissuade people from thinking this is as easy and as fun as Candy Crush because I've not seen people borrow money and lose money on Candy Crush. TENEV: I think it's important for it to be easy and accessible, and there's a big difference between that and so called gamification. And if you look at Robinhood right now, we do pride ourselves on having a simple onboarding, on having pioneered a cost structure and a business model with no account minimums and no commissions that has brought in a ton of new investors, a lot of whom are from diverse backgrounds that otherwise wouldn't have been even thinking about investing. And that's something we're incredibly proud of and we stand behind. I think it's a very, very powerful force. And there is this notion that you hear thrown around that, you know, when wealthy people or institutions are buying stocks, then that's investing. But when poor people do it, it's gambling. And I think we just have to move away from that. I think we reject that. We're proud of bringing all these new customers in. We're also proud of the educational content and a lot of the recent features. You know, not just the 24/7 support, but improvements we've made in app learning modules. CRAMER: I could not agree with you more. TENEV: Go ahead. CRAMER: I have spent an inordinate amount of time in my life trying to explain to people that just when someone – just because someone who doesn’t have any money is trying to make something of themselves in the stock market does not mean they are fools. That does not mean they don't know what they're doing. And until you came along, I felt no one in the industry believed in me. And that's one of the reasons why I've supported you from the day I met you. Because you do want to give people a chance. You do not discourage. Now shouldn't it be celebratory? I don't know. Should confetti go down? TENEV: Amen. CRAMER: What matters is that you have – you do not look down upon people who aren't that wealthy. Now sometimes I think, and my wife does too since she met you, think that perhaps it's because it’s your immigrant upbringing. Some of it is because I think you're just a good guy trying to get people involved. And some of it is because you realize technology can – a lot of barriers. At the same time, there are issues that the Commission brings up. Issues about like payment for order flow, where to me, it would seem like you're willing to tell anybody anything. I mean, you're willing to inform. You have become a person involved with safety and truth. Should you just give everybody a caveat that just says look, you know, there's other ways to trade, you can pay commission, some people think you get better. I don't know if you get better. We think you can get better. Something that indicates that the Commission's issues about this payment for order flow could go away and instead we focus on the fact that there are 22 million people who are trying to make something of themselves. TENEV: Well, I'll put it this way. I think that payment for order flow and digital engagement practices are what you call gamification in the report. It was a little bit confusing to me to see it in there because first of all, it had nothing to do with restricting the handful of stocks that were restricted in January. So it was sort of like a policy position that was kind of thrown in there a little bit as an aside with no connection to the restrictions or the underlying issues and I think the rest of the report supported that. I think some of the criticisms of payment for order flow, and the business model, frankly, don't make sense to me. I mean, you look at what the industry was like three years ago, pretty much all of the large brokerages were charging commissions and making revenue from payment for order flow as an addition, right. And Robinhood forced that to zero. Forced Commission's to zero and the payment for order flow model has become kind of the standard transaction base model for offering brokerage services in that space. And alongside that, you've had the best conditions for being a retail investor ever. By far the lowest cost of execution, across the board, whose spreads have been have been tighter. And I think it's a great time to be a retail investor in America and there's actually a lot of competition. Now I will say, I do support – I came out with a policy proposal a couple of months ago about the Sub-Penny Rule, and there has been some criticism about whether our exchanges can fairly compete with off exchange market makers like Citadel securities and Virtu. And I think there are opportunities to make the system better and to encourage more flow to go to the exchanges, and to strengthen the NBBO, and I think we should look at doing that. But I think the – CRAMER: Well, remember, we don't want people running ahead. We don't want rich people running ahead of the people who are trying to make something of themselves, correct? TENEV: We certainly don't want to do that, but I think by and large, this business model has helped pioneer commission free trading and make it possible. And certainly what we wouldn't want is the return to a commission structure in the industry that'll just keep people out especially those people of lower incomes and less means. CRAMER: Now how – if you were to look at the breakdown of what kind of common stocks people are buying, how much are these stocks that are say jumping 50% in one day – more than even GameStop – and how much are these days because we don't get to see them run like we used to. And I used to love that run. Where people are buying the great American industrials or they're buying the FAANGs, or buying fractions of the FAANGs because they cost too much. What is your –  just if you want to break up the mosaic of what you're seeing, how many people are really investing in America? TENEV: Well I think a lot of people are interested in buying the stock of companies that they believe in. You know, companies that make products that they use and understand. So you'll have, you know, the big technology companies, the consumer companies that are among the 100 most popular at Robinhood at any given time. And that's actually, you know, some information that we provide for customers within the app. There's also, you know, certain events that happen, so cryptocurrency entering the mainstream this year I think got a lot of people interested in cryptocurrencies and we offer seven different coins on our platform. And from time to time, you will see sort of shifts from one sector to another. When I was on your show last year – CRAMER: Is bitcoin the most popular? Or are they starting to buy like the dogecoin? The cocker spaniel coin, whatever it is. I mean, where are they – are they buying like the most steady of them? Or you're seeing people buying whatever is the least -- lowest value? Lowest dollar value. TENEV: You will have a range of activity. I think, generally speaking, people do buy larger companies, especially with fractional shares now making those companies more accessible, you'll see people investing smaller amounts into these companies, and with some of the tools that we've rolled out like recurring investments and drip, you'll see people automating a lot more of that activity, and actually dollar cost averaging into these names so that they don't have to watch day to day and keep track of the prices so closely. CRAMER: Okay, we like that. Are they dollar cost averaging into things like what people are chatting about Shiba. Now I feel somewhat embarrassed to say that they're talking about Shiba, but that's what they're doing. Are you seeing Shiba being traded? Is it on your platform? Or will you recognize it on your platform? TENEV: Well, I’ve heard a lot of people in that community – CRAMER: Are you thinking about adding it? TENEV: We actually don't offer. CRAMER: You don’t. TENEV: We only offer seven coins currently. And I think it goes back to safety first, right. So we're not generally going to be the first to add any new asset. We want to make sure that it goes through a stringent set of criteria. And, you know, we're very proud of our cryptocurrency platform, and giving people more utility with the coins they have. As a matter of fact, we rolled out our wallets waitlist. A lot of people have been asking us for the ability to send and receive cryptocurrencies, transfer them to hardware wallets, transfer them onto the platform to consolidate. And you know, the crypto wallets waitlist is well over a million people now, which is very exciting. We see an opportunity to continue growing that business. CRAMER: There was this bad old days period that fortunately did not last long, where there was kind of a, let’s call it a hate Vlad movement. And I'd like to think that the hate Vlad movement actually peaked on the night that you were willing to go on Twitter and debate Dave Portnoy. Where people thought you would be a no show. People thought that you didn't feel that safety had become paramount. That you were gamifying or whatever. And you showed. And it pretty much ended. Do you see that the way I did? TENEV: Well, it's been certainly an adventure over the past nine months, you know, to put it mildly – CRAMER: What do you mean? What are you, a diplomat? Give me some old Vlad, will you? Give me some old Vlad. Like the pre-Marc Benioff Vlad. I mean the guy who says yeah well I showed up I was willing to take the heat because I knew I did nothing wrong. What happened to that Vlad? TENEV: I'm surprised my hair is still dark and I don't have I don't have grays or it hasn't fallen out, put it that way. CRAMER: Watch yourself. You know, we don't like that our show. But no I mean, it did peak. And I think it peaked because you recognized that things – you didn't want things to get out of hand. I remember in the midst in the darkest moment, you were saying, look, no system was built for this. Which is true. That was one of the things that came out in the report. But I think that your democratization got challenged. And you never wavered, but you did have to change what was the most important value. And since you've done that Vlad – have you noticed that Vlad Tenev has become and Robinhood have become major I don't want to say you're, I hate to say this, but you're not a disruptor anymore. You're the norm. Do you mind being the norm? TENEV: I think there's always opportunities to continue along our mission, and, you know, I know that a lot of people talk about Robinhood as being a disruptor, and we certainly have been. We changed the industry and people used to be paying commissions and now we're not anymore, but I don't think that's done by any means. I think that, you look at cryptocurrencies, for instance, people are still paying 3%, 4% fees to access that market. You see a lot of opportunities to serve more customers that have even less money, who are even more underserved than the people we have now. So I think the mission has always been to democratize finance for all and to do that safely. And, you know, in some cases that might require disruption, in other cases is just going to be continual improvements to the product and just getting, you know, getting better and better each and every day with things like 24/7 support, improving our educational content, and really just helping customers be successful on the platform. I think that's a big part of it and we have really made incredible strides. I mean, the team has been working very, very hard to make the platform as reliable as possible for it to stand up to heavy volume and days where customers need us most. And to be there for customers if they need help, specifically for the first timers who can benefit the most. CRAMER: If you’ve got this set up – you’ve got the robust system, you've got 24/7 help, which most people don't. Is it time to start thinking bigger? For instance, right now we're hearing that perhaps PayPal is going to merge with Pinterest. But we see what some of the companies are doing – Square is doing. Not willing to be bound by the initial mission. I think that you have 22 million people who want more from Robinhood. Maybe they want to get some of the things that SoFi has, some of the things that Square has, is it time to be thinking about the next big leg up for Robinhood? TENEV: Well I think that there's always an opportunity to keep serving our customers and we have been expanding quite a bit over the past few years, especially getting into becoming one of the first to offer cryptocurrency trading, sort of, alongside traditional asset as a brokerage, our cash management product which allows customers to earn high yield and spend. And then, with cryptocurrencies, getting more into cryptocurrencies as a means of transacting with our new wallets waitlist that we announced and are rolling out shortly. So we're going to continue to do these things. I do think that investing and making people owners of our global economy is an incredibly powerful thing. And despite all the progress that we've made, there's still a lot of people that don't invest, and we see it as being very, very important to serve those people. I think it's not just good for them in their wealth building but also important for society. A society where more of us feel like owners in the common enterprise is one that's just going to be healthier. And I think, you know, we started this company in the wake of the financial crisis, there were a lot of protests, a lot of people were unhappy at the status quo, and just felt like the financial system wasn't working for them. And hopefully, bit by bit we can improve that and make it an inclusive system and one that really serve the needs of the people, as well as it possibly can. CRAMER: I know Chairman Gensler was very concerned about suitability. You have 1 million people who are 19. What do we tell the 19 year-olds to be sure that they understand that they're doing something that is in keeping with their suitability which by the way Vlad, they may not even know the word. How do we get 19 year-olds to be investing what you and I would say responsibly and not blow their heads off on shorting calls? TENEV: I think it's the things that we've been building and of course suitability is – there's very strict rules by FINRA and brokerages have to follow them, and Robinhood is always committed to following the rules of the road there. There's also educational content. You know, I think, investment products are not suitable for everyone. They involve risk, especially when you're talking about options, and having people understand the risks and understand all of the information of how they work, assuming they’re willing to take those risks and are suitable is something that's incredibly important as well. So we are continuing to do a lot more in product and through Robinhood Learn to educate people. CRAMER: Yeah, that's why we started our investing club here. Right because people don’t get enough. I think that, you know, we do investment club basically just to be able to teach. And I think that you're doing teaching now and I think it's absolutely terrific because we need to do that because we don't, as much as we're thrilled that you have – the average customers age 31, we've got to get this median account balance up to 240. Now how do we do that? And do these people own mutual funds away or index funds which I think is a very responsible way to start investing. And then they use their so called Mad Money $240 with you. Have you seen that grow? I mean, because you know that's not enough. And we all work hard. I started with $200. I know you started with nothing, which it is terrific to start with nothing. But I do believe that we need to get that balance up and I'm trying to figure out how to make people wealthier. How do we make people wealthy? TENEV: I think the best way to do it is to have a long term perspective and put aside a little bit at a time and really start young and you'll see kind of the magic of compounding and compound returns happen over a longer period of time. And I think there's ways we can continue to make that process easier with recurring, with drip, with fractional shares, we have a lot of the building blocks. And, you know, we're excited to see more and more people adopting those products and we believe that in the future, they'll be a larger and growing percentage of the activity on the platform. CRAMER: Now is the average investor, making I don't want to call it necessarily progress, but I would like to see the average investor not just suddenly go crypto. I mean are you saying people –people used to be say 90% stock, now 90% crypto? TENEV: It's certainly an interesting trend. I think there's certain advantages that crypto has for especially interoperability, and the ability to be global by default. So, you know, regardless of where you are in the world whether you're in the U.S. or overseas, you can have a wallet, you can send people cryptocurrencies from that wallet to their wallet. And so there there's certain advantages that are in the technology that make it kind of global and accessible by default and that makes it very interesting. Now of course, we also have, you know, the equities market in the US has really been where the best companies list over time. It's been a tremendous source of wealth creation, and there is an opportunity to kind of make that easier and make that more accessible as well. So I, generally agree with you, I think it's important for people to be diversified, for them to build up portfolios over time and invest for the long term. And you know what that specific mix is, I think, you know, we can probably debate, but crypto certainly is here to stay as an asset class, and the ease of use and the global nature of it, I think, has made it attractive to lots of people, not just in the U.S. but overseas in particular what you are seeing is very interesting. CRAMER: But Vlad, people are starting to come back to work. It's also football season, which is a DraftKings FanDuel situation. Are you seeing fewer people sign up? Is the app going down in popularity at all? As people then switch to football gambling, we know that – we're not saying that they're doing Robinhood  gambling with the football game, but these are various ways that people want to be able to make money. And the return to work means that most people can’t sit there and trade or invest during the day. Are you seeing those two trends which is gambling and back to work, cutting into the growth of Robinhood? TENEV: What I've always said and, you know, I think in our last conversation you've heard me say this as well. We're not paying too much attention to short term trends. The way that we're going to make progress and serve our customers and go after this opportunity of making as many people long term investors as possible is by focusing on the products. And so we're going to continue to roll out new products, improve the service, make sure that it's as easy as possible for first time investors to become long term investors and get all the support that they need. So, you know, whether short term fluctuations, Covid, reopening not something that we're going to spend too much time commenting on. CRAMER: By the way, did you see former President Trump’s SPAC today? Up 40 points. Do you follow any of these trends that some of the younger people really get a kick out of, too? TENEV: I heard about the product, the new social media platform. But I haven't been watching the stock too closely. CRAMER: No, no, it's a what I call a newer public offering, so to speak. Definitely newer. Well Vlad, look. I think you've come through Hades and back. I love the theme that I know you do care about passionately is safety. Any last words for people who are young who are watching who are thinking about taking the so called plunge into common stocks? TENEV: Yeah look I think that it's important to invest for the long term and to be educated. And we want to make sure to meet our customers where they are, and especially for young people, a lot of that educational content has to be contextual. It has to be in the form that customers expect. And we're going to continue to provide that through Snacks, on Snap and in in-product, which is our podcast and newsletter. We're going to continue to increase the tools and the functionality and the support that's available to customers. And we're going to continue to roll out products that democratize finance safely by giving you the lowest possible cost that we can offer, and the lowest barriers to entry with a great experience. So that's what Robinhood is all about and over the coming decades, I think we'd like to see more and more people globally become investors and we'd like to be a part of that and really driving that transition to where everyone becomes an owner of our economy and our society. CRAMER: Well I want to congratulate you for everything. For being 2021’s top disruptor, for the journey you have taken, for the maturity that we all had to have because so many new people have come in. And for your advice and counsel, particularly as far as I am concerned, in light of what happened at the end of January, shows that you never lost the flame. Some people thought you did. The report vindicates you. And I'm thrilled that you came to our Disruptor conference and to Mad Money. And it's always good to see you, Vlad. TENEV: It's always a pleasure. Thank you. Thank you for the time, Jim. Updated on Oct 22, 2021, 10:21 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkOct 22nd, 2021

Futures Flat As Bitcoin Nears All-Time High, Yen Tumbles To 4 Year Low

Futures Flat As Bitcoin Nears All-Time High, Yen Tumbles To 4 Year Low US index futures were little changed as investors weighed the start of the earnings season against growing stagflation, tightening, energy crisis, China property and supply risks. S&P 500 futures were flat after the cash index edged closer to a record on Tuesday, rising above 4,500. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were also unchanged after the main index rallied for the past five days. At 7:30 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 8 points, or 0.02%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 1 point, or 0.03%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 5 points, or 0.03%. Oil was down and the dollar steadied. Bitcoin traded just shy of its all time high overnight, and was last seen around $64,000. The S&P closed higher on Tuesday with the biggest boosts from the technology and healthcare sectors amid optimism about solid third-quarter earnings season. The index is just 0.4% below its early September record close, while the Dow Jones Industrials average is 0.5% below its all-time high reached in mid-August. "Earlier this month, stagflation was the buzzword on Wall Street. But now excessive pessimism is receding, especially after strong U.S. retail sales data on Friday," said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. "Tech shares and other high-growth shares that would have been sold on rising bond yields are rallying, which clearly shows that there is now strong optimism on upcoming earnings." The positive mood saw U.S. bond yields rising further, with the 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield climbing to 1.67% , a high last seen in May. Shorter yields dipped, however, with the two-year yield slipping to 0.404% from Monday's peak of 0.448% as traders took profits for now from bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will turn hawkish at its upcoming policy meeting in early November. Investors expect the Fed to announce tapering of its bond buying and money markets futures are pricing in one rate hike later next year. "The Fed is likely to become more hawkish, probably tweaking its language on its assessment that inflation will be transient. While the Fed will maintain tapering is not linked to a future rate hike, the market will likely try to price in rate hikes and flatten the yield curve," said Naokazu Koshimizu, senior strategist at Nomura Securities. In premarket trading, Tesla edged 0.4% lower in the run up to its quarterly results after markets close, with investors awaiting details on its performance in China. Anthem rose 0.6% as the second largest health U.S. insurer raised its profit outlook for 2021 after beating third-quarter profit estimates. United Airlines Holdings gained 1.6% after the carrier reported a smaller quarterly loss than a year ago on travel rebound. Ford gained 1.9% after Credit Suisse upgraded the U.S. automaker’s stock to ‘outperform’ on EV transition. Oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp slipped 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively, tracking crude prices. Meanwhile, Chinese technology ADRs climbed as jitters in the wake of President Xi Jinping’s regulatory crackdowns fade. Netflix’s global sensation “Squid Game” helped lure more customers than expected, the world’s largest streaming service said as it predicted a packed lineup would further boost signups through the end of the year. Its shares, however, fell 2.7% after hitting a record high earlier this month and gaining 18.2% year-to-date. Here are some of the other biggest U.S. movers today: Chinese tech stocks listed in the U.S. rally in premarket with Hong Kong peers as jitters in the wake of President Xi Jinping’s regulatory crackdowns fade; Pinduoduo (PDD US) +1.7%; Didi (DIDI US) +1.3% Alibaba (BABA US) jumped 6.7% in Hong Kong after reports that founder Jack Ma has traveled abroad for the first time in a year United Airlines (UAL US) gains 2% in U.S. premarket trading after the airline posted a narrower loss than expected despite the impact of the coronavirus delta variant. Cowen notes that 3Q was better than expected and also ahead of management’s last guidance from early September Novavax (NVAX US) shares fall as much as 25% in U.S. premarket trading after Politico reported a potential delay in registering its Covid-19 vaccine candidate with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in connection with inadequate purity levels Vinco Ventures (BBIG US) shares slump 15% in premarket trading after the company reported the resignations of Chief Executive Officer Christopher Ferguson and Chief Financial Officer Brett Vroman Ford (F US) shares gain 1.7% premarket after Credit Suisse upgrades to outperform with joint Street-high target of $20 following a significant turnaround over the past year Stride (LRN US) gained 7.9% Tuesday postmarket after the education company forecast revenue for the full year that beat the highest analyst estimate WD-40 (WDFC US) sank 10% in postmarket trading after forecasting earnings per share for 2022 that missed the average analyst estimate Omnicom (OMC US) fell 3% in postmarket trading after third quarter revenue fell short of some analyst estimates Canadian National (CNI US) U.S.-listed shares rose 4.6% in postmarket trading after reporting adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate Akero Therapeutics (AKRO US) shares rose as much as 12% in Tuesday extended trading after co. said the U.S Verizon Communication, Abbott Laboratories, Tesla Inc, Kinder Morgan and IBM are set to report their earnings later in the day.  Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to rise 32.4% from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv data, while also keeping a close eye on growth outlook from companies that are faced with rising costs, labor shortages and supply chain disruptions. “Investor response to the latest set of earnings reports has been a touch hit and miss with supply chain issues dogging both Procter and Gamble and Philip Morris,” wrote Danni Hewson, financial analyst at AJ Bell in a client note. “After six quarters of beating earnings expectations, the focus may now shift to forward guidance for 2022 and away from the likely better than expected results for this quarter,” Clive Emery, a multi asset fund manager at Invesco said in a note. “If CEOs are more conservative, this could dent market pricing – especially after such strong moves in equity markets over the last 18 months.” In Europe, stocks were also little changed as gains in food and beverage stocks offset losses in miners which are some of the region’s steepest decliners as base metals slip after China launched a blitz of measures to tackle the energy crisis. The Stoxx Europe 600 basic resources index drops 2% as of 10:56am in London, worst performance among Stoxx 600 sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Falck Renewables shares rise as much as 15% after Infrastructure Investments Fund agreed to buy Falck SpA’s 60% stake in the company at EU8.81/share. IIF will launch a mandatory cash tender offer for Falck Renewables’ remaining share capital after the transaction. Husqvarna shares advance as much as 7.7%, the most intraday since May 2020, after reporting 3Q operating profit that Pareto Securities says is “substantially” stronger than expected. Getinge shares jump as much as 8.1% to a record high, leading the OMX Stockholm 30 index, after 3Q earnings which Handelsbanken (hold) says showed “impressive” order intake and operating leverage. Deliveroo shares jump as much as 4.9% to their highest level since Sept. 30, after the U.K. online food delivery firm hikes its growth forecast, which Jefferies says is an “aspiration” for players in the sector. Nestle shares advance as much as 3.9% after the world’s largest food company increased its sales outlook for the year. This along with the lack of a negative margin update “should be enough to reassure,” according to Citigroup. AutoStore Holdings shares jumped as much as 15% in its Oslo trading debut after pricing shares at the top end of the marketed range as an online shopping boom and labor shortages drive up demand for its automated warehouse robots. Kering SA shares tumbled as much as 5.8% after slowing growth at Gucci, its biggest brand, put more pressure on the label’s new collection to deliver a strong holiday season. Antofagasta shares slump as much as 6.3%, most intraday for two months, after the miner guides for lower copper production next year. Citi and Morgan Stanley analysts say 2022 outlook came in below expectations Kuehne + Nagel shares fall as much as 4.7% to their lowest level in five months after working- capital concerns outweighed a 3Q earnings beat for Swiss logistics operator. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced with Hong Kong-listed tech shares extending their rally to a fourth day, buoyed by encouraging U.S. earnings and growing optimism that the strictest of China’s new regulations on tech firms may already be announced.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.7%, powered by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which closed up 6.7%. The equity gauge also climbed after Johnson & Johnson raised its profit forecast and Netflix Inc. reported a jump in subscribers. Hong Kong and Australia were among the top-performing markets.  “Asian stocks appear to be taking their cue from the U.S. earnings season and are being bought on the back of the nascent technical confirmation,” said Justin Tang, the head of Asian research at United First Partners. The regional benchmark has gained 5% over the past two weeks as the earnings season progresses and inflation and supply chain worries ease. The measure is close to surpassing its 100-day moving average. Coal stocks listed in mainland China slumped after the nation’s top economic planner said it’s studying ways to intervene in the coal market as the government tries to rein in rising prices and curtail shortfalls. Meanwhile, expectations are falling that China’s central bank will ease monetary policy by cutting the amount of cash banks have to hold in reserve, according to a front-page story from the central bank’s own newspaper. Japanese equities eked out a second day of gains, driven by advances in telecommunications providers. Banks were also among the biggest boosts to the Topix, which rose less than 0.1%. SoftBank Group and Fast Retailing were the largest contributors to a 0.1% gain in the Nikkei 225. U.S. equities extended a rally on Tuesday as solid corporate results helped counter concerns stemming from elevated inflation. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.5% to 7,413.70, its highest close since Sept. 16. Banks boosted the index as a subgauge of financials hit a four-year peak. Kogan.com rallied after the company reported gross sales for the first quarter of A$330.5 million vs. A$273 million y/y. Whitehaven plunged after China’s top economic planner said it is studying ways to intervene in the coal market as the government tries to rein in rising prices and curtail shortfalls. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.4% to 13,114.24 In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index is little changed in London trade following yesterday’s slide and the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers. The Treasury curve held on to yesterday’s steepening as the 2-year yield fell a second day, while the 10- year yield was steady after earlier rising to 1.67% for the first time since May. Norway’s krone was the worst G-10 performer as it fell from the European open, after yesterday reaching a four-month high versus the dollar. The pound slipped, reversing modest gains, after the U.K.’s September inflation reading came in lower than expectations; still, it’s well beyond the Bank of England’s target and it’s the last before the rate decision in November. Australia’s led G-10 gains and the sovereign bond curve bear steepened, tracking yesterday’s Treasury moves. The yen fell to weakest level in almost four years as traders added to bets on Fed rate hikes and rising oil prices boosted concern about the Japanese trade deficit. China’s offshore yuan extends its overnight softness after a weaker than expected fixing, with USD/CNH 0.25% higher. In rates, treasuries were narrowly mixed and off lows reached during Asia session after being led higher during European morning by gilts, where short maturities outperform. The 10-year TSY yield touched 1.67%, the highest level since May. The treasury futures rally stalled after a block sale in 10-year contracts, apparently fading strength. Treasury curve pivots around a little-changed 10-year sector, with front-end yields slightly richer on the day, long-end slightly cheaper; 5s30s, steeper by 2bp, extends rebound from Monday’s multimonth low; U.K. 10-year yield is lower by nearly 4bp. U.S. session includes 20-year bond auction.   Bunds and gilts ground higher in quiet trade, with curves having a small steepening bias. Long end USTs cheapen 1bp, gilts richen ~2.5bps at the short end. Peripheral spreads are marginally tighter to Germany. Italy’s green BTP syndication is well received with final books over EU48b. European equities fade a small opening dip to trade little changed. Price action is quiet, V2X drops toward 16 In commodities, crude futures drift lower. WTI drops 0.9% near $82.20, Brent is 1% lower holding above $84. Spot gold slowly extends Asia’s gains, rising $9 to trade near $1,780/oz. Most base metals are under pressure with LME copper and aluminum underperforming peers. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin stood at $64,068, near its all-time peak of $64,895 as the first U.S. bitcoin futures-based exchange-traded fund began trading on Tuesday Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK and Canadian CPI readings for September, alongside the German PPI reading for the same month. From central banks, the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book, and we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bostic, Kashkari, Evans, Bullard and Quarles, as well as the ECB’s Villeroy, Elderson, Holzmann and Visco. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Tesla, Verizon Communications, Abbott Laboratories, NextEra Energy and IBM. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,509.50 MXAP up 0.4% to 200.82 MXAPJ up 0.5% to 661.79 Nikkei up 0.1% to 29,255.55 Topix little changed at 2,027.67 Hang Seng Index up 1.4% to 26,136.02 Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,587.00 Sensex down 0.6% to 61,343.39 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,413.67 Kospi down 0.5% to 3,013.13 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 468.88 German 10Y yield rose 8.5 bps to -0.115% Euro little changed at $1.1628 Brent Futures down 0.9% to $84.32/bbl Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,777.33 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.80 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said there won’t be a fresh lockdown of the U.K. economy even as Covid-19 cases tick upwards and Prime Minister Boris Johnson warns of a difficult winter ahead The recovery in France and in Europe “remains very strong,” Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau says on Wednesday during a National Assembly finance committee hearing The yen’s tough year is only going to get tougher as a rising tide of oil prices and global yields threatens to send Japan’s currency past 115 per dollar for the first time since 2017 PBOC Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng says financial activities by China’s property sector and financial market prices are gradually becoming normal, China Business News reports, citing a speech at a forum in Beijing Sinic Holdings Group Co. became the latest Chinese real estate firm to default as investors wait to see whether China Evergrande Group Inc. will meet overdue interest payments on dollar bonds this week A more detailed look at global markets from Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mostly positive as the region took its cue from the extended gains on Wall Street where sentiment was underpinned amid encouraging earnings results and with some hopes for a breakthrough on reconciliation as the White House and Democrats continued deliberations. ASX 200 (+0.5%) was led higher by outperformance in tech and with nearly all of its sectors in the green, while there were also gains seen in some of the blue-chip miners and across the big four banks. Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) was lifted by the weaker currency and following better than expected Exports and Imports data, although the index stalled just shy of the 29.5k level, while KOSPI (-0.5%) failed to hold on to opening gains with confirmation from North Korea that it fired a new submarine launched ballistic missile on Tuesday. Hang Seng (+1.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) were varied whereby Hong Kong was boosted by tech and health care with Alibaba leading the advances after it recently unveiled China’s most advanced chip and with its founder Jack Ma travelling abroad for the first time in over a year who is currently on a study tour in Spain. Conversely, the mainland was subdued alongside weakness in domestic commodity prices and despite a firmer liquidity effort by the PBoC, while the central bank provided no surprises in maintaining its benchmark Loan Prime Rates unchanged for the 18th consecutive month and a PBoC-backed paper also noted that expectations for a RRR cut during Q4 have eased. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid spillover selling from global peers and recent curve steepening in US which desks attributed to positioning and upcoming supply, although the downside for JGBs was limited by the presence of the BoJ in the market for nearly JPY 1.4tln of JGBs heavily concentrated in 1yr-10yr maturities. Top Asian News Abu Dhabi’s Top Fund Backs Indonesia’s Largest Internet Firm Singapore Category E COE Price Rises to Highest Since Oct. 2013 China’s Liu He Says Property Market Risks Are Controllable: 21st Rio’s New CEO Starts Turnaround With $7.5 Billion Climate Pledge It’s been a choppy start to the session for European equities (Euro Stoxx 50 flat; Stoxx 600 flat) as opening losses were quickly trimmed after the cash open. Stocks in Europe were unable to benefit from the constructive APAC handover, which itself benefitted from a strong Wall St close as stocks in the US gained for a fifth consecutive session. As it stands, US equity index futures are relatively flat as indices succumb to the choppy price action with events on Capitol Hill not providing much guidance for price action as lawmakers strive to reach a deal on spending by the end of the week. Back to Europe and sectoral performance is somewhat mixed with clear outperformance in the Food & Beverage sector as earnings from Swiss heavyweight Nestle (+3.2%) provides support and prompts upside in the SMI (+0.7%). Nestle reported a beat on 9M revenues and raised FY guidance amid performance of coffee and pet food sales, whilst noting that it increased pricing in a “responsible manner” during Q3. Elsewhere in Switzerland, Roche (-1.0%) also beat on revenues and raised guidance but was unable to benefit from a lift in its share price. To the downside, Basic Resources lag amid softness in some base metals prices as well as a production update from Antofagasta (-4.2%) and a broker downgrade for Rio Tinto (-4.0%). Retail names are also trading on a softer footing after Q3 earnings from Kering (-4.0%) saw the Co. report a decline in consolidated revenues and note that performance for Gucci was hit by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Asia. H&M (-2.7%) is also weighing on the sector after a broker downgrade at Morgan Stanley. Elsewhere, Deliveroo (+3%) is seeing upside today after the Co. upgraded Gross Transaction Value (GTV) growth guidance. Additionally, in what has been a tough week for the Co., IAG (-3.6%) is seeing further losses after being downgraded at Peel Hunt. Finally, updates from the likes of materials name Akzo Nobel (supply chain woes) and semiconductor ASML (revenues fell short of expectations) have sent their shares lower by 1.5% and 1.7% respectively. Top European News Weidmann to to Step Down as Bundesbank Chief at End of Year Credit Suisse Dodges Bigger Fine With Debt-Forgiveness Vow Vinci Up After Reporting Higher 9m Sales; Guidance Confirmed Covid Tests Boost Roche Growth Once Again, Lifting Outlook In FX, the Index has recovered from yesterday's decline, which saw a base at 93.500 – matching the 32.8% Fib retracement of the September move, with the Index now eyeing the 21 DMA at 93.917 ahead of 94.000. The main stateside development has been on the fiscal front, where President Biden told Democrat lawmakers he believed they could secure an agreement for a tax and spending proposal valued at USD 1.75tln-1.90tln, whilst US progressive Democratic Rep. Jayapal said she feels even more optimistic after the White House meeting. As Republicans fully opposed Biden's plans, all Democrat votes are needed in the Senate, whilst only a few can be spared in the House. As a reminder, Congress set an Oct 31st deadline for the passage. Negotiations are expected to wrap up as soon as this week. Ahead, the stateside docket is quiet aside from several Fed regulars after the European close. NZD, AUD, CAD - The Kiwi stands as the current outperformer in a continuation of the strength seen as bets mount for a steeper RBNZ OCR hike at the upcoming meeting in light of the CPI metrics earlier this week. The NZD/USD pair also sees some technical tailwinds after failing to convincingly breach 0.7150 to the downside overnight. AUD/USD meanwhile eyes 0.7500 to the upside from a 0.7466 base with some potential support seen as China taps into Aussie coal amid surging demand. USD/CAD dips below 1.2350 but remains within yesterday's 1.2309-76 range ahead of Canadian CPI later – with headline Y/Y expected to tick higher to 4.3% from 4.1%. EUR, GBP - Both flat vs the Dollar and against each other. Sterling saw some mild weakness as UK CPI narrowly missed expectations at 3.1% vs exp. 3.2% for the headline Y/Y, in turn prompting market pricing to ease a touch as the dust settled – with the implied rate for the 4th Nov meeting modestly under 25bps vs 25.71bps heading into the release. That being said, the slight miss is likely not to provide enough ammunition for the BoE doves, whilst the hawks will likely continue to warn the dangers of persistently high inflation – ultimately not settling the debate on the MPC regarding how soon it should raise rates. GBP/USD fell back under its 100 DMA (1.3805) from a 1.3814 high. From a technical standpoint, aside from yesterday's 1.3833 peak, the pair sees the 200 DMA at 1.3846. EUR/USD meanwhile rebounded off its 21 DMA (1.1615) but remains under 1.1669 high, having seen little reaction to the unrevised Y/Y final EZ CPI metrics, although the M/M metrics were revised slightly higher as expected. Elsewhere, it is worth noting that ECB-hawk Weidmann has submitted his resignation to the Bundesbank and the ECB ahead of next week's Governing Council confab. JPY - The JPY is relatively flat intraday, but overnight price action was interesting as USD/JPY drifted to a high of 114.69, with participants recently flagging barriers just ahead of 115.00. Some have also cited Gatobi demand, where accounts In commodities, WTI and Brent Dec futures are marginally softer on the day in a continuation of the downward trajectory during US hours yesterday. WTI has dipped below USD 82/bbl (vs high USD 82.60/bbl) while its Brent counterpart hovers around USD 84.50/bbl (vs high USD 85.20/bbl). The subdued prices come amid a larger-than-expected build in Private inventories, although the internals were bullish, with the DoEs headline expected to print a build of some 1.8mln bbls. Elsewhere, the Iraqi energy minister has been vocal throughout the session, saying he expects oil prices to reach USD 100/bbl in Q1 and Q2 2022 – in contrast to comments he made last week which suggested that oil price is unlikely to increase further; whilst he also recently noted oil prices between USD 75-80/bbl is a fair price for producers and consumers. The Iraqi minister today said it is preferable for long-term oil prices between USD 75-85/bbl, and OPEC+ is now discussing ways to balance oil prices but no decision has yet been made to add more production above the agreed levels. Elsewhere, following India’s call on OPEC yesterday to lower prices, India’s HPCL executive says current oil prices are high for India; USD 60-70/bbl is comfortable and high oil prices may impact demand growth. Over to metals spot gold resides around its 50 DMA at USD 1,778/oz while spot silver eyes USD 24/bbl to the upside. Overnight, China’s coal intervention saw prices slump – with thermal coal futures hitting limit down and coke futures opening lower by 9%. LME copper prices are also softer, with the contract briefly dipping under USD 10k/t overnight. US Event Calendar 7am: Oct. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0.2% Oct. 20-Oct. 22: Sept. Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$59b, prior -$124.6b 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Whilst inflation concerns are still very much bubbling under the surface of markets, risk appetite strengthened further yesterday thanks in no small part to decent earnings reports. There are no signs of widespread erosions of margins at the moment. Perhaps there is so much money sloshing about that for now prices are broadly being passed on. We’ll get a better picture of this as the earnings season develops. Indeed, the selloff from September feels like an increasingly distant memory now, with the S&P 500 (+0.74%) advancing for a 5th consecutive session to leave the index just 0.38% beneath all-time closing high from early September. Earlier Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.33%) also moved higher. In the US, earnings supported sentiment yet again. 10 of the 11 companies reporting during New York trading beating estimates, whilst all 4 of the after-hours reporting beat as well. That brings the total number of reporters for the season thus far to 57, 50 of whom have beat earnings expectations. Most sectors were higher yesterday, with health care (+1.31%), utilities (+1.26%), and energy (+1.14%) leading the way; only consumer discretionary (-0.29%) lagged. We even saw the FANG+ index (+1.56%) of megacap tech stocks hit a new record ahead of Tesla’s earnings today, whilst the NASDAQ (+0.72%) was also up for a 5th consecutive session. Equities may be brushing off the inflation stories for now but they are hardly going away, as yesterday saw oil prices climb to fresh multi-year highs. Brent Crude was up +0.89% to close above $85/bbl for the first time since 2018, whilst WTI (+0.63%) similarly advanced to close just shy of $83/bbl, a mark not reached since 2014. And investor expectations of future inflation are still moving higher in many places, with the Euro Area 5y5y forward inflation swap up +4.0bps to 1.90%, also the highest level since 2014. Against this backdrop, sovereign bonds continued to selloff on both sides of the Atlantic, even though investors slightly pared back some of their Monday bets on near-term rate hikes by the Fed and the BoE. 10yr yields moved higher across the board, with those on Treasuries up +3.7bps to 1.64%, their highest closing level since early June, just as those on bunds (+4.3bps), OATs (+4.3bps) and BTPs (+4.8bps) similarly moved higher. It was a more divergent picture at the 2yr horizon however, with those on 2yr Treasuries down -3.0bps after five days of increases, whereas those on gilts were up +1.0bps. Watch out for UK inflation numbers shortly after this hits your inboxes although this may be the calm (due to base effects) before the inflationary storm in the coming months. From central banks, we had the latest global hike yesterday in Hungary, where the base rate was raised by 15bps to 1.80%, in line with consensus expectations, with Deputy Governor Virag saying afterwards that this monetary tightening was set to carry on into next year. However, we did get some pushback to recent market pricing from ECB chief economist Lane, who said that “If you look at market pricing of the forward interest rate curve, I think it’s challenging to reconcile some of the market views with our pretty clear rate forward guidance”. This didn’t really hit fixed income but it did see the euro pare back some of its gains against the US dollar yesterday, ending the session up just +0.08%, down from an intraday high of +0.51%. Asian equities have followed those moves higher overnight, with the Hang Seng (+1.71%), Nikkei (+0.27%), CSI (+0.08%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.03%) all trading higher, although the KOSPI (-0.11%) has lost ground. China’s property market continues to be in focus after home prices fell -0.08% in September, which is their first monthly decline since April 2015. Separately, Chinese coal futures (-8.00%) have snapped a run of 8 consecutive gains this morning after the country’s National Development and Reform Commission said that it wanted to ensure a rise in coal output to 12m tons per day, and that they would also be looking at other measures to intervene in the market. Outside of Asia, equity futures are pointing slightly lower, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.03%. The pandemic hasn’t been a major influence on markets in recent weeks but there may be some initial signs that the global decline in cases that we’ve seen since late August has stopped. Looking at data from John Hopkins University, the rolling weekly change in confirmed cases has ticked up on each of Saturday, Sunday and Monday. And although we shouldn’t over-interpret a few days’ numbers, we had already seen the rate of decline slow for 3 successive weeks now, which was probably to be expected given the time of year. We’re certainly coming up to a key period where a more indoor northern hemisphere life will combine with waning vaccine effectiveness to test the resolve of the authorities to maintain relatively restriction-free economies. Boosters may be key here. Once we get past this winter things may get easier particularly with new medicines in the pipeline like the viral pill from Merck that trials showed reduced hospitalisations and deaths by around half. On the data front, US housing starts fell to an annualised rate of 1.555m in September (vs. 1.615m expected), whilst building permits also fell to an annualised rate of 1.589m (vs. 1.680m expected). The previous month’s numbers were also revised down for both. Finally in the US, after an acrimonious weekend, Senators Sanders and Manchin expressed optimism they could agree on a framework for the next reconciliation bill by the end of the week in bilateral negotiations, which is set to contain a number of President Biden’s key legislative goals. To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK and Canadian CPI readings for September, alongside the German PPI reading for the same month. From central banks, the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book, and we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bostic, Kashkari, Evans, Bullard and Quarles, as well as the ECB’s Villeroy, Elderson, Holzmann and Visco. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Tesla, Verizon Communications, Abbott Laboratories, NextEra Energy and IBM. Tyler Durden Wed, 10/20/2021 - 07:59.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytOct 20th, 2021

WallStreetBets founder Jaime Rogozinski breaks down the Nancy Pelosi stock controversy, and details his next project for retail investors

WallStreetBets founder Jaime Rogozinski talks to Insider about his blockchain-based trading platform WSB DApp. WallStreetBets founder Jaime Rogozinski. Jaime Rogozinski. WallStreetBets founder Jaime Rogozinski talks to Insider about his blockchain-based trading platform WSB DApp. "This is very much a way for me to say crypto and Wall Street are definitely going to merge," says Rogozinski. He suggested the platform create a "Nancy ETP" to capture the attention on stock trading by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband. Jaime Rogozinski, the founder of WallStreetBets, believes there's potential for a new investment product tracking the stock bets made by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband, whose trading has sparked outrage and fascination in equal measures among amateur traders.In an interview, he suggested a Pelosi-themed exchange-traded portfolio could emerge on the latest iteration of his campaign to empower retail investors - a platform called WallStreetBets DApp."I got this idea, somewhat of a joke, but I can't shake it so I'm probably going to start pushing for it, which is this 'Nancy ETP,'" Rogozinski told Insider.But his vision for WallStreetBets DApp, a blockchain-based shop for stocks and other assets, extends far beyond one potentially trendy ETP. A strategic partner in the project, Rogozinski wants ordinary investors to build their wealth with the same kind of community-powered energy that the WallStreetBets forum on Reddit used to upend the trading world this year. WallStreetBets was thrust into the spotlight in January after retail investors active on the site banded together to drive a massive upsurge in video-game retailer GameStop's stock price, squeezing hedge funds shorting the so-called meme stock. The WSB DApp is an expression of what Rogozinski sees as the next big thing in the financial world. "This is very much a way for me to say crypto and Wall Street are definitely going to merge and they're starting to spill into each other already," he told Insider during a video interview from Mexico City, where he lives with his family."For far too long, I made the mistake of assuming blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies were one in the same thing - and they're not," Rogozinski said. "This whole DeFi (decentralized finance) infrastructure that's able to create a parallel ecosystem in finances is astoundingly powerful, more than I could have imagined." 'Nancy ETP'Rogozinski's idea for an automated "Nancy ETP" would highlight a key feature on WSB DApp. The platform allows community members to propose the creation and makeup of ETPs, which can hold a mix of assets such as domestic and international equities, cryptocurrencies, and metals.The WSB DApp platform has a native token, the $WSB governance token, that people can buy and then use to vote on the type of assets and weightings that should go into an ETP. In an example given in May, token holders who think Tesla should make up 90% of a particular ETP instead of 10% can vote on it by signing a transaction using their $WSB tokens during voting cycles.At the same time, a Pelosi-centered ETP would apply the "if you can't beat them, join them" notion to investing while also drawing attention to outrage and debate over stock trading by members of Congress and their families, Rogozinski said. In the case of Paul Pelosi, one trade in particular stood out. It involved shares of Google parent Alphabet that made $5.3 million for him prior to a House Judiciary Committee vote on tech antitrust regulation. Spokespeople for Speaker Pelosi told media outlets she owns no stock herself and had no knowledge of her husband's equity purchases. Meanwhile, as the uproar continues, "people are able to make money," with a product like the "Nancy ETP", said Rogozinski. "Nothing's sure but past performance is definitely impressive," he said broadly of Paul Pelosi's stock picks.The strong performance of his stock picks over the last two years has prompted many retail investors to mirror Paul Pelosi's investments. Meanwhile, memes about Nancy Pelosi have popped up, suggesting she's a skilled investor that can make money off of insider information.Life after moderating WallStreetBetsThe Pelosi controversy has the right mix of ingredients to thrive in discussions on the WallStreetBets forum, which Rogozinski created in 2012 in a quest to find a place for ideas about aggressive, money-making trades. But in April of 2020, he was removed as a moderator on WallStreetBets after being accused by other moderators of trying to profit from the subreddit.He sold the rights to his life story to RatPac Entertainment in exchange for a payment in the low six figures, according to a Wall Street Journal report in May. More about the dispute will be revealed through projects the entertainment company plans to produce, which could include movies, podcasts, TV shows, and other vehicles, he said. "The documentary is well underway and will be out next year," Rogozinski said. And while he's no longer a WallStreetBets moderator, his WSB DApp platform looks to continue its mission of democratizing markets. Using the $WSB token, retail investors will rebalance ETPs, not by "opaque and politically connected" banks and hedge funds, WallStreetBets said in May.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytOct 16th, 2021

"Nancy ETP": WallStreetBets founder Jaime Rogozinski on the Pelosi stock controversy and his next project for retail investors

WallStreetBets founder Jaime Rogozinski talks to Insider about his blockchain-based trading platform WSB DApp. WallStreetBets founder Jaime Rogozinski. Jaime Rogozinski. WallStreetBets founder Jaime Rogozinski talks to Insider about his blockchain-based trading platform WSB DApp. "This is very much a way for me to say crypto and Wall Street are definitely going to merge," says Rogozinski. He suggested the platform create a "Nancy ETP" to capture the attention on stock trading by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband. Jaime Rogozinski, the founder of WallStreetBets, believes there's potential for a new investment product tracking the stock bets made by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband, whose trading has sparked outrage and fascination in equal measures among amateur traders.In an interview, he suggested a Pelosi-themed exchange-traded portfolio could emerge on the latest iteration of his campaign to empower retail investors - a platform called WallStreetBets DApp."I got this idea, somewhat of a joke, but I can't shake it so I'm probably going to start pushing for it, which is this 'Nancy ETP,'" Rogozinski told Insider.But his vision for WallStreetBets DApp, a blockchain-based shop for stocks and other assets, extends far beyond one potentially trendy ETP. A strategic partner in the project, Rogozinski wants ordinary investors to build their wealth with the same kind of community-powered energy that the WallStreetBets forum on Reddit used to upend the trading world this year. WallStreetBets was thrust into the spotlight in January after retail investors active on the site banded together to drive a massive upsurge in video-game retailer GameStop's stock price, squeezing hedge funds shorting the so-called meme stock. The WSB DApp is an expression of what Rogozinski sees as the next big thing in the financial world. "This is very much a way for me to say crypto and Wall Street are definitely going to merge and they're starting to spill into each other already," he told Insider during a video interview from Mexico City, where he lives with his family."For far too long, I made the mistake of assuming blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies were one in the same thing - and they're not," Rogozinski said. "This whole DeFi (decentralized finance) infrastructure that's able to create a parallel ecosystem in finances is astoundingly powerful, more than I could have imagined." 'Nancy ETP'Rogozinski's idea for an automated "Nancy ETP" would highlight a key feature on WSB DApp. The platform allows community members to propose the creation and makeup of ETPs, which can hold a mix of assets such as domestic and international equities, cryptocurrencies, and metals.The WSB DApp platform has a native token, the $WSB governance token, that people can buy and then use to vote on the type of assets and weightings that should go into an ETP. In an example given in May, token holders who think Tesla should make up 90% of a particular ETP instead of 10% can vote on it by signing a transaction using their $WSB tokens during voting cycles.At the same time, a Pelosi-centered ETP would apply the "if you can't beat them, join them" notion to investing while also drawing attention to outrage and debate over stock trading by members of Congress and their families, Rogozinski said. In the case of Paul Pelosi, one trade in particular stood out. It involved shares of Google parent Alphabet that made $5.3 million for him prior to a House Judiciary Committee vote on tech antitrust regulation. Spokespeople for Speaker Pelosi told media outlets she owns no stock herself and had no knowledge of her husband's equity purchases. Meanwhile, as the uproar continues, "people are able to make money," with a product like the "Nancy ETP", said Rogozinski. "Nothing's sure but past performance is definitely impressive," he said broadly of Paul Pelosi's stock picks.The strong performance of his stock picks over the last two years has prompted many retail investors to mirror Paul Pelosi's investments. Meanwhile, memes about Nancy Pelosi have popped up, suggesting she's a skilled investor that can make money off of insider information.Life after moderating WallStreetBetsThe Pelosi controversy has the right mix of ingredients to thrive in discussions on the WallStreetBets forum, which Rogozinski created in 2012 in a quest to find a place for ideas about aggressive, money-making trades. But in April of 2020, he was removed as a moderator on WallStreetBets after being accused by other moderators of trying to profit from the subreddit.He sold the rights to his life story to RatPac Entertainment in exchange for a payment in the low six figures, according to a Wall Street Journal report in May. More about the dispute will be revealed through projects the entertainment company plans to produce, which could include movies, podcasts, TV shows, and other vehicles, he said. "The documentary is well underway and will be out next year," Rogozinski said. And while he's no longer a WallStreetBets moderator, his WSB DApp platform looks to continue its mission of democratizing markets. Using the $WSB token, retail investors will rebalance ETPs, not by "opaque and politically connected" banks and hedge funds, WallStreetBets said in May.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytOct 16th, 2021

TradingView chart platform receives $3 billion valuation after retail investing frenzy drives 400% growth

TradingView was founded in 2011 and caught on early to the intersecting trend of finance and social media. Investors have become more cautious about US stocks in recent weeks. Johannes Eisele/Getty Images TradingView is now valued at $3 billion after raising $298 million in a private offering. The technical analysis charting platform has seen a 400% surge in membership over the past 18 months.TradingView is popular with a new class of retail investors that have flooded the stock market since the start of the pandemic.Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell.TradingView has completed a $298 million private funding round valuing the social charting platform a $3 billion valuation. The funding round caps off an 18-month surge in growth since millions of retail investors flooded the stock market amid the COVID-19 pandemic and drove massive moves in "meme stocks" like GameStop and AMC Entertainment.New memberships have surged 400% since the start of the pandemic, while visitors to the platform more than tripled. TradingView said it now has paying customers in more than 180 countries, a testament to the global reach of its charts."It doesn't matter who you are, or where you're from, you'll always have access to the best tools and the best insights to find your right trading opportunities, then act on them," TradingView CEO Denis Globa said.The online charting platform allows users to apply various technical analysis tools to thousands of securities and cryptocurrencies, and then enables them to "publish" their work to the public that can be upvoted by users who like the chart. The funding round was led by new investor Tiger Global, which highlighted TradingView's potential for future growth thanks to the social sharing aspect of the charting company."TradingView's global reach, strong product offering, and engaged customer base positions the company to be the default social network and financial analysis platform used by all traders and investors," said Tiger Global partner Alex Cook. TradingView was founded in 2011 and caught on early at the intersection of finance and social media, as younger investors now get much of their financial advice from social media platforms, according to one survey. The charting platform operates a freemium model that users can upgrade to Pro, Pro+, and Premium versions, which unlock different features and cost $15, $30, and $60 per month, respectively. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 14th, 2021

Citadel"s Ken Griffin said he"d be "quite fine" if payment-for-order-flow was banned and that his firm doesn"t trade crypto because of regulatory uncertainty

The Citadel founder also praised Robinhood and other brokers for "democratizing finance in America." Citadel founder Ken Griffin. Heidi Gutman/CNBC/NBCU Photo Bank/NBCUniversal via Getty Images Citadel's Ken Griffin discussed the payment-for-order-flow model and cryptocurrencies Monday. He said he'd be "quite fine" with a ban on payment for order flow, saying it's a cost to his firm. As for crypto, he said his firm doesn't trade in it because of "regulatory uncertainty." See more stories on Insider's business page. Citadel founder Ken Griffin said Monday he'd be "quite fine" with a legislative ban on payment for order flow - the controversial practice used by brokers such as Robinhood to provide free trading. "Payment for order flow is a cost to me," he said at the Economic Club of Chicago. "So if you're going to tell me that by regulatory fiat that one of my major items expense disappears, I'm OK with that."In the payment-for-order-flow model, market makers such as Griffin's Citadel Securities execute trades for retail investors on apps like Robinhood and collect on the difference between the bid and ask price.The practice has come under scrutiny this year after Robinhood halted buying of meme stocks like GameStop and AMC in January. Retail traders renewed their anger over it recently after a new lawsuit was filed, alleging Griffin and Robinhood Chief Executive Officer Vlad Tenev conspired to stop the meme-stock rally. On Twitter, Citadel Securities once again denied the claims. Despite saying he'd be OK with a ban on the payment-for-order-flow model, Griffin praised Robinhood and other brokers for "democratizing finance in America" and said retail traders have been able to join the markets in part thanks to free trading. "From my vantage point, we want to hold onto this democratization of finance that's taken place," he said. "If payment for order flow helps to maintain that as a reality, I think that's good for everybody." When asked about cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, Griffin made a jab at the environmental harm. He also said his firm doesn't trade digital currencies because of the "regulatory uncertainty." US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler has said he's working with other government bodies to come up with a regulatory framework for the new asset class. Thoughtful regulation around crypto will make it a smaller market with "less people involved who are just trying to make a quick buck," Griffin said. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 4th, 2021

Futures Slide On Growing Stagflation Fears As Treasury Yields Surge

Futures Slide On Growing Stagflation Fears As Treasury Yields Surge US index futures, European markets and Asian stocks all turned negative during the overnight session, surrendering earlier gains as investors turned increasingly concerned about China's looming slowdown - and outright contraction - amid a global stagflationary energy crunch, which sent 10Y TSY yields just shy of 1.50% this morning following a Goldman upgrade in its Brent price target to $90 late on Sunday. At 745 a.m. ET, S&P 500 e-minis were down 4.75 points, or 0.1% after rising as much as 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 83 points, or 0.54% and Dow e-minis were up 80 points, or 0.23%. The euro slipped as Germany looked set for months of complex coalition talks. While the market appears to have moved beyond the Evergrande default, the debt crisis at China's largest developer festers (with Goldman saying it has no idea how it will end), and data due this week will show a manufacturing recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is faltering faster. A developing energy crisis threatens to crimp global growth further at a time markets are preparing for a tapering of Fed stimulus. The week could see volatile moves as traders scrutinize central bankers’ speeches, including Chair Jerome Powell’s meetings with Congressional panels. “Most bad news comes from China these days,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Group Holdings, wrote in a note. “The Evergrande debt crisis, the Chinese energy crackdown on missed targets and the ban on cryptocurrencies have been shaking the markets, along with the Fed’s more hawkish policy stance last week.” Oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp rose 1.5% and 1.2% in premarket trade, respectively, tracking crude prices, while big lenders including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp gained about 0.8%.Giga-cap FAAMG growth names such as Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Facebook and Apple all fell between 0.3% and 0.4%, as 10Y yield surged, continuing their selloff from last week, which saw the 10Y rise as high as 1.4958% and just shy of breaching the psychological 1.50% level. While growth names were hit, value names rebounded as another market rotation appears to be in place: industrials 3M Co and Caterpillar Inc, which tend to benefit the most from an economic rebound, also inched higher (although one should obviously be shorting CAT here for its China exposure). Market participants have moved into value and cyclical stocks from tech-heavy growth names after the Federal Reserve last week indicated it could begin unwinding its bond-buying program by as soon as November, and may raise interest rates in 2022. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Gores Guggenheim (GGPI US) shares rise 7.2% in U.S. premarket trading as Polestar agreed to go public with the special purpose acquisition company, in a deal valued at about $20 billion. Naked Brand (NAKD US), one of the stocks caught up in the first retail trading frenzy earlier this year, rises 11% in U.S. premarket trading, extending Friday’s gains. Among other so-called meme stocks in premarket trading: ReWalk Robotics (RWLK) +6.5%, Vinco Ventures (BBIG) +18%, Camber Energy (CEI) +2.9% Pfizer (PFE US) and Opko Health (OPK US) in focus after they said on Friday that the FDA extended the review period for the biologics license application for somatrogon. Opko fell 3.5% in post-market trading. Aspen Group (ASPU) climbed 10% in Friday postmarket trading after board member Douglas Kass buys $172,415 of shares, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission. Seaspine (SPNE US) said spine surgery procedure volumes were curtailed in many areas of the U.S. in 3Q and particularly in August. Tesla (TSLA US) and other electric- vehicle related stocks globally may be active on Monday after Germany’s election, in which the Greens had their best-ever showing and are likely to be part of any governing coalition. Europe likewise drifted lower, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index erasing earlier gains and turning negative as investors weighed the risk to global growth from the China slowdown and the energy crunch. The benchmark was down 0.1% at last check. Subindexes for technology (-0.9%) and consumer (-0.8%) provide the main drags while value outperformed, with energy +2.4%, banks +2% and insurance +1.3%.  The DAX outperformed up 0.5%, after German election results avoided the worst-case left-wing favorable outcome.  U.S. futures. Rolls-Royce jumped 12% to the highest since March 2020 after the company was selected to provide the powerplant for the B-52 Stratofortress under the Commercial Engine Replacement Program. Here are some of the other biggest European movers today IWG rises as much as 7.5% after a report CEO Mark Dixon is exploring a multibillion-pound breakup of the flexible office-space provider AUTO1 gains as much as 6.1% after JPMorgan analyst Marcus Diebel raised the recommendation to overweight from neutral Cellnex falls as much as 4.3% to a two-month low after the tower firm is cut to sell from neutral at Citi, which says the stock is “priced for perfection in an imperfect industry” European uranium stocks fall with Yellow Cake shares losing as much as 6% and Nac Kazatomprom shares declining as much as 4.7%. Both follow their U.S. peers down following weeks of strong gains as the price of uranium ballooned For those who missed it, Sunday's closely-watched German elections concluded with the race much closer than initially expected: SPD at 25.7%, CDU/CSU at 24.1%, Greens at 14.8%, FDP at 11.5%, AfD at 10.3% Left at 4.9%, the German Federal Returning Officer announced the seat distribution from the preliminary results which were SPD at 206 seats, CDU/CSU at 196. Greens at 118, FDP at 92, AfD at 83, Left at 39 and SSW at 1. As it stands, three potential coalitions are an option, 1) SPD, Greens and FDP (traffic light), 2) CDU/CSU, Greens and FDP (Jamaica), 3) SPD and CDU/CSU (Grand Coalition but led by the SPD). Note, option 3 is seen as the least likely outcome given that the CDU/CSU would be unlikely willing to play the role of a junior partner to the SPD. Therefore, given the importance of the FDP and Greens in forming a coalition for either the SPD or CDU/CSU, leaders of the FDP and Greens have suggested that they might hold their own discussions with each other first before holding talks with either of the two larger parties. Given the political calculus involved in trying to form a coalition, the process is expected to play out over several months. From a markets perspective, the tail risk of the Left party being involved in government has now been removed due to their poor performance and as such, Bunds trade on a firmer footing. Elsewhere, EUR is relatively unfazed due to the inconclusive nature of the result. We will have more on this in a subsequent blog post. Asian stocks fell, reversing an earlier gain, as a drop in the Shanghai Composite spooked investors in the region by stoking concerns about the pace of growth in China’s economy.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index wiped out an advance of as much as 0.7%, on pace to halt a two-day climb. Consumer discretionary names and materials firms were the biggest contributors to the late afternoon drag. Financials outperformed, helping mitigate drops in other sectors.  “Seeing Shanghai shares extending declines, investors’ sentiment has turned weak, leading to profit-taking on individual stocks or sectors that have been gaining recently,” said Shoichi Arisawa, an analyst at Iwai Cosmo Securities. “The drop in Chinese equities is reminding investors about a potential slowdown in their economy.”  The Shanghai Composite was among the region’s worst performers along with Vietnam’s VN Index. Shares of China’s electricity-intensive businesses tumbled after Beijing curbed power supplies in the country’s manufacturing hubs to cut emissions. The CSI 300 still rose, thanks to gains in heavily weighted Kweichow Moutai and other liquor makers. Asian equities started the day on a positive note as financials jumped, tracking gains in U.S. peers and following a rise in Treasury yields. Resona Holdings was among the top performers after Morgan Stanley raised its view on the stock and Japanese banks. The regional market has been calmer over the past few trading sessions after being whipsawed by concerns over any fallout from China Evergrande Group’s debt troubles. While anxiety lingers, many investors expect China will resolve the distressed property developer’s problems rather than let them spill over into an echo of 2008’s Lehman crisis. Japanese equities closed lower, erasing an earlier gain, as concerns grew over valuations following recent strength in the local market and turmoil in China. Machinery and electronics makers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 0.1%. Daikin and Bandai Namco were the largest contributors to a dip of less than 0.1% in the Nikkei 225. Both gauges had climbed more 0.5% in morning trading. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite Index fell as much as 1.5% as industrials tumbled amid a power crunch. “Seeing Shanghai shares extending declines, investors’ sentiment has turned weak, leading to profit-taking on individual stocks or sectors that have been gaining recently,” said Shoichi Arisawa, an analyst at Iwai Cosmo Securities Co. “The drop in Chinese equities is reminding investors about a potential slowdown in their economy. That’s why marine transportation stocks, which are representative of cyclical sectors, fell sharply.” Shares of shippers, which have outperformed this year, fell as investors turned their attention to reopening plays. Travel and retail stocks gained after reports that the government is making final arrangements to lift all the coronavirus state of emergency order in the nation as scheduled at the end of this month. Australia's commodity-heavy stocks advanced as energy, banking shares climb. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.6% to close at 7,384.20, led by energy stocks. Banks also posted their biggest one-day gain since Aug. 2. Travel stocks were among the top performers after the prime minister said state premiers must not keep borders closed once agreed Covid-19 vaccination targets are reached. NextDC was the worst performer after the company’s CEO sold 1.6 million shares. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index. In FX, the U.S. dollar was up 0.1%, while the British pound, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar lead G-10 majors, with the Swedish krona and Swiss franc lagging. •    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed and the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers o    Volatility curves in the major currencies were inverted last week due to a plethora of central bank meetings and risk-off concerns. They have since normalized as stocks stabilize and traders assess the latest forward guidance on monetary policy •    The yield on two-year U.S. Treasuries touched the highest level since April 2020, as tightening expectations continued to put pressure on front-end rates and ahead of debt sales later Monday •    The pound advanced, with analyst focus on supply chain problems as Prime Minister Boris Johnson considers bringing in army drivers to help. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech later will be watched after last week’s hawkish meeting •    Antipodean currencies, as well as the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar were among the best Group-of-10 performers amid a rise in commodity prices •    The yen pared losses after falling to its lowest level in six weeks and Japanese stocks paused their rally and amid rising Treasury yields   In rates, treasuries extended their recent drop, led by belly of the curve ahead of this week’s front-loaded auctions, which kick off Monday with 2- and 5-year note sales.  Yields were higher by up to 4bp across belly of the curve, cheapening 2s5s30s spread by 3.2bp on the day; 10-year yields sit around 1.49%, cheaper by 3.5bp and underperforming bunds, gilts by 1.5bp and 0.5bp while the front-end of the curve continues to sell off as rate-hike premium builds -- 2-year yields subsequently hit 0.284%, the highest level since April 2020. 5-year yields top at 0.988%, highest since Feb. 2020 while 2-year yields reach as high as 0.288%; in long- end, 30-year yields breach 2% for the first time since Aug. 13. Auctions conclude Tuesday with 7-year supply. Host of Fed speakers due this week, including three scheduled for Monday. In commodities, Brent futures climbed 1.4% to $79 a barrel, while WTI futures hit $75 a barrel for the first time since July, amid an escalating energy crunch across Europe and now China. Base metals are mixed: LME copper rises 0.4%, LME tin and nickel drop over 2%. Spot gold gives back Asia’s gains to trade flat near $1,750/oz In equities, Stoxx 600 is up 0.6%, led by energy and banks, and FTSE 100 rises 0.4%. Germany’s DAX climbs 1% after German elections showed a narrow victory for social democrats, with the Christian Democrats coming in a close second, according to provisional results. S&P 500 futures climb 0.3%, Dow and Nasdaq contracts hold in the green. In FX, the U.S. dollar is up 0.1%, while the British pound, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar lead G-10 majors, with the Swedish krona and Swiss franc lagging. Base metals are mixed: LME copper rises 0.4%, LME tin and nickel drop over 2%. Spot gold gives back Asia’s gains to trade flat near $1,750/oz Investors will now watch for a raft of economic indicators, including durable goods orders and the ISM manufacturing index this week to gauge the pace of the recovery, as well as bipartisan talks over raising the $28.4 trillion debt ceiling. The U.S. Congress faces a Sept. 30 deadline to prevent the second partial government shutdown in three years, while a vote on the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill is scheduled for Thursday. On today's calendar we get the latest Euro Area M3 money supply, US preliminary August durable goods orders, core capital goods orders, September Dallas Fed manufacturing activity. We also have a bunch of Fed speakers including Williams, Brainard and Evans. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 4,442.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 464.54 MXAP little changed at 200.75 MXAPJ little changed at 642.52 Nikkei little changed at 30,240.06 Topix down 0.1% to 2,087.74 Hang Seng Index little changed at 24,208.78 Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,582.83 Sensex up 0.2% to 60,164.70 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,384.17 Kospi up 0.3% to 3,133.64 German 10Y yield fell 3.1 bps to -0.221% Euro down 0.3% to $1.1689 Brent Futures up 1.2% to $79.04/bbl Gold spot little changed at $1,750.88 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.15% to 93.47 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg House Speaker Nancy Pelosi put the infrastructure bill on the schedule for Monday under pressure from moderates eager to get the bipartisan bill, which has already passed the Senate, enacted. But progressives -- whose votes are likely vital -- are insisting on progress first on the bigger social-spending bill Olaf Scholz of the center-left Social Democrats defeated Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives in an extremely tight German election, setting in motion what could be months of complex coalition talks to decide who will lead Europe’s biggest economy China’s central bank pumped liquidity into the financial system after borrowing costs rose, as lingering risks posed by China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis hurt market sentiment toward its peers as well Global banks are about to get a comprehensive blueprint for how derivatives worth several hundred trillion dollars may be finally disentangled from the London Interbank Offered Rate Economists warned of lower economic growth in China as electricity shortages worsen in the country, forcing businesses to cut back on production Governor Haruhiko Kuroda says it’s necessary for the Bank of Japan to continue with large-scale monetary easing to achieve the bank’s 2% inflation target The quant revolution in fixed income is here at long last, if the latest Invesco Ltd. poll is anything to go by. With the work-from-home era fueling a boom in electronic trading, the majority of investors in a $31 trillion community say they now deploy factor strategies in bond portfolios A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded somewhat mixed with the region finding encouragement from reopening headlines but with gains capped heading towards month-end, while German election results remained tight and Evergrande uncertainty continued to linger. ASX 200 (+0.6%) was led higher by outperformance in the mining related sectors including energy as oil prices continued to rally amid supply disruptions and views for a stronger recovery in demand with Goldman Sachs lifting its year-end Brent crude forecast from USD 80/bbl to USD 90/bbl. Furthermore, respectable gains in the largest weighted financial sector and details of the reopening roadmap for New South Wales, which state Premier Berijiklian sees beginning on October 11th, further added to the encouragement. Nikkei 225 (Unch) was kept afloat for most of the session after last week’s beneficial currency flows and amid reports that Japan is planning to lift emergency measures in all areas at month-end, although upside was limited ahead of the upcoming LDP leadership race which reports noted are likely to go to a run-off as neither of the two main candidates are likely to achieve a majority although a recent Kyodo poll has Kono nearly there at 47.4% of support vs. nearest contender Kishida at 22.4%. Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) were varied with the mainland choppy amid several moving parts including back-to-back daily liquidity efforts by the PBoC since Sunday and with the recent release of Huawei’s CFO following a deal with US prosecutors. Conversely, Evergrande concerns persisted as Chinese cities reportedly seized its presales to block the potential misuse of funds and its EV unit suffered another double-digit percentage loss after scrapping plans for its STAR Market listing. There were also notable losses to casino names after Macau tightened COVID-19 restrictions ahead of the Golden Week holidays and crypto stocks were hit after China declared crypto activities illegal which resulted in losses to cryptoexchange Huobi which dropped more than 40% in early trade before nursing some of the losses, while there are also concerns of the impact from an ongoing energy crisis in China which prompted the Guangdong to ask people to turn off lights they don't require and use air conditioning less. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat but have clawed back some of the after-hour losses on Friday with demand sapped overnight amid the mild gains in stocks and lack of BoJ purchases in the market. Elsewhere, T-note futures mildly rebounded off support at 132.00, while Bund futures outperformed the Treasury space amid mild reprieve from this month’s losses and with uncertainty of the composition for the next German coalition. Top Asian News Moody’s Says China to Safeguard Stability Amid Evergrande Issues China’s Tech Tycoons Pledge Allegiance to Xi’s Vision China Power Crunch Hits iPhone, Tesla Production, Nikkei Reports Top Netflix Hit ‘Squid Game’ Sparks Korean Media Stock Surge Bourses in Europe have trimmed the gains seen at the open, albeit the region remains mostly in positive territory (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%; Stoxx 600 +0.2%) in the aftermath of the German election and amid the looming month-end. The week also sees several risk events, including the ECB's Sintra Forum, EZ CPI, US PCE and US ISM Manufacturing – not to mention the vote on the bipartisan US infrastructure bill. The mood in Europe contrasts the mixed handover from APAC, whilst US equity futures have also seen more divergence during European trade – with the yield-sensitive NQ (-0.3%) underperforming the cyclically-influenced RTY (+0.4%). There has been no clear catalyst behind the pullback since the Cash open. Delving deeper into Europe, the DAX 40 (+0.6%) outperforms after the tail risk of the Left party being involved in government has now been removed. The SMI (-0.6%) has dipped into the red as defensive sectors remain weak, with the Healthcare sector towards to bottom of the bunch alongside Personal & Household Goods. On the flip side, the strength in the price-driven Oil & Gas and yield-induced Banks have kept the FTSE 100 (+0.2%) in green, although the upside is capped by losses in AstraZeneca (-0.4%) and heavy-weight miners, with the latter a function of declining base metal prices. The continued retreat in global bonds has also hit the Tech sector – which resides as the laggard at the time of writing. In terms of individual movers, Rolls-Royce (+8.5%) trades at the top of the FTSE 100 after winning a USD 1.9bln deal from the US Air Force. IWG (+6.5%) also extended on earlier gains following reports that founder and CEO Dixon is said to be mulling a multibillion-pound break-up of the Co. that would involve splitting it into several distinct companies. Elsewhere, it is worth being cognizant of the current power situation in China as the energy crisis spreads, with Global Times also noting that multiple semiconductor suppliers for Tesla (Unch), Apple (-0.4% pre-market) and Intel (Unch), which have manufacturing plants in the Chinese mainland, recently announced they would suspend their factories' operations to follow local electricity use policies. Top European News U.K. Relaxes Antitrust Rules, May Bring in Army as Pumps Run Dry Magnitude 5.8 Earthquake Hits Greek Island of Crete German Stocks Rally as Chances Wane for Left-Wing Coalition German Landlords Rise as Left’s Weakness Trumps Berlin Poll In FX, the Aussie is holding up relatively well on a couple of supportive factors, including a recovery in commodity prices overnight and the Premier of NSW setting out a timetable to start lifting COVID lockdown and restrictions from October 11 with an end date to completely re-open on December 1. However, Aud/Usd is off best levels against a generally firm Greenback on weakness and underperformance elsewhere having stalled around 0.7290, while the Loonie has also run out of momentum 10 pips or so from 1.2600 alongside WTI above Usd 75/brl. DXY/EUR/CHF - Although the risk backdrop is broadly buoyant and not especially supportive, the Buck is gleaning traction and making gains at the expense of others, like the Euro that is gradually weakening in wake of Sunday’s German election that culminated in narrow victory for the SPD Party over the CDU/CSU alliance, but reliant on the Greens and FDP to form a Government. Eur/Usd has lost 1.1700+ status and is holding a fraction above recent lows in the form of a double bottom at 1.1684, but the Eur/Gbp cross is looking even weaker having breached several technical levels like the 100, 21 and 50 DMAs on the way down through 0.8530. Conversely, Eur/Chf remains firm around 1.0850, and largely due to extended declines in the Franc following last week’s dovish SNB policy review rather than clear signs of intervention via the latest weekly Swiss sight deposit balances. Indeed, Usd/Chf is now approaching 0.9300 again and helping to lift the Dollar index back up towards post-FOMC peaks within a 93.494-206 range in advance of US durable goods data, several Fed speakers, the Dallas Fed manufacturing business index and a double dose of T-note supply (Usd 60 bn 2 year and Usd 61 bn 5 year offerings). GBP/NZD/JPY - As noted above, the Pound is benefiting from Eur/Gbp tailwinds, but also strength in Brent to offset potential upset due to the UK’s energy supply issues, so Cable is also bucking the broad trend and probing 1.3700. However, the Kiwi is clinging to 0.7000 in the face of Aud/Nzd headwinds that are building on a break of 1.0350, while the Yen is striving keep its head afloat of another round number at 111.00 as bond yields rebound and curves resteepen. SCANDI/EM - The Nok is also knocking on a new big figure, but to the upside vs the Eur at 10.0000 following the hawkish Norges Bank hike, while the Cnh and Cny are holding up well compared to fellow EM currencies with loads of liquidity from the PBoC and some underlying support amidst the ongoing mission to crackdown on speculators in the crypto and commodity space. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures kicked the week off on a firmer footing, which saw Brent Nov eclipse the USD 79.50/bbl level (vs low 78.21/bbl) whilst its WTI counterpart hovers north of USD 75/bbl (vs low 74.16/bbl). The complex could be feeling some tailwinds from the supply crunch in Britain – which has lead petrol stations to run dry as demand outpaces the supply. Aside from that, the landscape is little changed in the run-up to the OPEC+ meeting next Monday, whereby ministers are expected to continue the planned output hikes of 400k BPD/m. On that note, there have been reports that some African nations are struggling to pump more oil amid delayed maintenance and low investments, with Angola and Nigeria said to average almost 300k BPD below their quota. On the Iranian front, IAEA said Iran permitted it to service monitoring equipment during September 20th-22nd with the exception of the centrifuge component manufacturing workshop at the Tesa Karaj facility, with no real updates present regarding the nuclear deal talks. In terms of bank commentary, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end Brent crude forecast by USD 10 to USD 90/bbl and stated that Hurricane Ida has more than offset the ramp-up in OPEC+ output since July with non-OPEC+, non-shale output continuing to disappoint, while it added that global oil demand-deficit is greater than expected with a faster than anticipated demand recovery from the Delta variant. Conversely, Citi said in the immediate aftermath of skyrocketing prices, it is logical to be bearish on crude oil and nat gas today and forward curves for later in 2022, while it added that near-term global oil inventories are low and expected to continue declining maybe through Q1 next year. Over to metals, spot gold and silver have fallen victim to the firmer Dollar, with spot gold giving up its overnight gains and meandering around USD 1,750/oz (vs high 1760/oz) while spot silver briefly dipped under USD 22.50/oz (vs high 22.73/oz). Turning to base metals, China announced another round of copper, zinc and aluminium sales from state reserves – with amounts matching the prior sales. LME copper remains within a tight range, but LME tin is the outlier as it gave up the USD 35k mark earlier in the session. Finally, the electricity crunch in China has seen thermal coal prices gain impetus amid tight domestic supply, reduced imports and increased demand. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Aug. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 0.9% 8:30am: Aug. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1% 8:30am: Aug. -Less Transportation, est. 0.5%, prior 0.8% 8:30am: Aug. Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.6%, prior -0.1% 10:30am: Sept. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 11.0, prior 9.0 Central Banks 8am: Fed’s Evans Speaks at Annual NABE Conference 9am: Fed’s Williams Makes Opening Remarks at Conference on... 12pm: Fed’s Williams Discusses the Economic Outlook 12:50pm: Fed’s Brainard Discusses Economic Outlook at NABE Conference DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Straight to the German elections this morning where unlike the Ryder Cup the race was tight. The centre-left SPD have secured a narrow lead according to provisional results, which give them 25.7% of the vote, ahead of Chancellor Merkel’s CDU/CSU bloc, which are on 24.1%. That’s a bit narrower than the final polls had suggested (Politico’s average put the SPD ahead by 25-22%), but fits with the slight narrowing we’d seen over the final week of the campaign. Behind them, the Greens are in third place, with a record score of 14.8%, which puts them in a key position when it comes to forming a majority in the new Bundestag, and the FDP are in fourth place currently on 11.5%. Although the SPD appear to be in first place the different parties will now enter coalition negotiations to try to form a governing majority. Both Olaf Scholz and the CDU’s Armin Laschet have said that they will seek to form a government, and to do that they’ll be looking to the Greens and the FDP as potential coalition partners, since those are the most realistic options given mutual policy aims. So the critical question will be whether it’s the SPD or the CDU/CSU that can convince these two to join them in coalition. On the one hand, the Greens have a stronger policy overlap with the SPD, and governed with them under Chancellor Schröder from 1998-2005, but the FDP seems more in line with the Conservatives, and were Chancellor Merkel’s junior coalition partner from 2009-13.  So it’s likely that the FDP and the Greens will talk to each other before talking to either of the two biggest parties. For those wanting more information, our research colleagues in Frankfurt have released a post-election update (link here) on the results and what they mean. An important implication of last night’s result is that (at time of writing) it looks as though a more left-wing coalition featuring the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke would not be able for form a majority in the next Bundestag. So the main options left are for the FDP and the Greens to either join the SPD in a “traffic light” coalition or instead join the CDU/CSU in a “Jamaica” coalition. The existing grand coalition of the SPD and the CDU/CSU would actually have a majority as well, but both parties have signalled that they don't intend to continue this. That said, last time in 2017, a grand coalition wasn’t expected after that result, and there were initially attempts to form a Jamaica coalition. But once those talks proved unsuccessful, discussions on another grand coalition began once again. In terms of interesting snippets, this election marks the first time the SPD have won the popular vote since 2002, which is a big turnaround given that the party were consistently polling in third place over the first half of this year. However, it’s also the worst ever result for the CDU/CSU, and also marks the lowest combined share of the vote for the two big parties in post-war Germany, which mirrors the erosion of the traditional big parties we’ve seen elsewhere in continental Europe. Interestingly, the more radical Die Linke and AfD parties on the left and the right respectively actually did worse than in 2017, so German voters have remained anchored in the centre, and there’s been no sign of a populist resurgence. This also marks a record result for the Greens, who’ve gained almost 6 percentage points relative to four years ago, but that’s still some way down on where they were polling earlier in the spring (in the mid-20s), having lost ground in the polls throughout the final weeks of the campaign. Markets in Asia have mostly started the week on a positive note, with the Hang Seng (+0.28%), Nikkei (+0.04%), and the Kospi (+0.25%) all moving higher. That said, the Shanghai Comp is down -1.30%, as materials (-5.91%) and industrials (-4.24%) in the index have significantly underperformed, which comes amidst power curbs in the country. In the US and Europe however, futures are pointing higher, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.37%, and those on the DAX up +0.51%. Moving onto another big current theme, all the talk at the moment is about supply shocks and it’s not inconceivable that things could get very messy on this front over the weeks and months ahead. However, I think the discussion on supply in isolation misses an important component and that is demand. In short we had a pandemic that effectively closed the global economy and interrupted numerous complicated supply chains. The global authorities massively stimulated demand relative to where it would have been in this environment and in some areas have created more demand than there would have been at this stage without Covid. However the supply side has not come back as rapidly. As such you’re left with demand outstripping supply. So I think it’s wrong to talk about a global supply shock in isolation. It’s not as catchy but this is a “demand is much higher than it should be in a pandemic with lockdowns, but supply hasn't been able to fully respond” world. If the authorities hadn’t responded as aggressively we would have plenty of supply for the demand and a lot of deflation. Remember negative oil prices in the early stages of the pandemic. So for me every time you hear the phrase “supply shock” remember the phenomenal demand there is relative to what the steady state might have been. This current “demand > supply” at lower levels of activity than we would have had without covid is going to cause central banks a huge headache over the coming months. Should they tighten due to what is likely to be a prolonged period of higher prices than people thought even a couple of months ago or should they look to the potential demand destruction of higher prices? The risk of a policy error is high and the problem with forward guidance is that markets demand to know now what they might do over the next few months and quarters so it leaves them exposed a little in uncertain times. This problem has crept up fast on markets with an epic shift in sentiment in the rates market after the BoE meeting Thursday lunchtime. I would say they were no more hawkish than the Fed the night before but the difference is that the Fed are still seemingly at least a year from raising rates and a lot can happen in that period whereas the BoE could now raise this year (more likely February). That has focused the minds of global investors, especially as Norway became the first central bank among the G-10 currencies to raise rates on the same day. Towards the end of this note we’ll recap the moves in markets last week including a +15bps climb in US 10yr yields in the last 48 hours of last week. One factor that will greatly influence yields over the week ahead is the ongoing US debt ceiling / government shutdown / infrastructure bill saga that is coming to a head as we hit October on Friday - the day that there could be a partial government shutdown without action by the close on Thursday. It’s a fluid situation. So far the the House of Representatives has passed a measure that would keep the government funded through December 3, but it also includes a debt ceiling suspension, so Republicans are expected to block this in the Senate if it still includes that. The coming week could also see the House of Representatives vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill (c.$550bn) that’s already gone through the Senate, since Speaker Pelosi had previously committed to moderate House Democrats that there’d be a vote on the measure by today. She reaffirmed that yesterday although the timing may slip. However, there remain divisions among House Democrats, with some progressives not willing to support it unless the reconciliation bill also passes. In short we’ve no idea how this get resolved but most think some compromise will be reached before Friday. Pelosi yesterday said it “seems self-evident” that the reconciliation bill won’t reach the $3.5 trillion hoped for by the administration which hints at some compromise. Overall the sentiment has seemingly shifted a little more positively on there being some progress over the weekend. From politics to central banks and following a busy week of policy meetings, there are an array of speakers over the week ahead. One of the biggest highlights will be the ECB’s Forum on Central Banking, which is taking place as an online event on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the final policy panel on Wednesday will include Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey and BoJ Governor Kuroda. Otherwise, Fed Chair Powell will also be testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, alongside Treasury Secretary Yellen, and on Monday, ECB President Lagarde will be appearing before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs as part of the regular Monetary Dialogue. There are lots of other Fed speakers this week and they can add nuances to the taper and dot plot debates. Finally on the data front, there’ll be further clues about the state of inflation across the key economies, as the Euro Area flash CPI estimate for September is coming out on Friday. Last month's reading showed that Euro Area inflation rose to +3.0% in August, which was its highest level in nearly a decade. Otherwise, there’s also the manufacturing PMIs from around the world on Friday given it’s the start of the month, along with the ISM reading from the US, and Tuesday will see the release of the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading for the US as well. For the rest of the week ahead see the day-by-day calendar of events at the end. Back to last week now and the highlight was the big rise in global yields which quickly overshadowed the ongoing Evergrande story. Bonds more than reversed an early week rally as yields rose for a fifth consecutive week. US 10yr Treasury yields ended the week up +8.9bps to finish at 1.451% - its highest level since the start of July and +15bps off the Asian morning lows on Thursday. The move saw the 2y10y yield curve steepen +4.5bps, with the spread reaching its widest point since July as well. However, at the longer end of the curve the 5y30y spread ended the week largely unchanged after a volatile week. It was much flatter shortly following the FOMC and steeper following the BoE. Bond yields in Europe moved higher as well with the central bank moves again being the major impetus especially in the UK. 10yr gilt yields rose +7.9bps to +0.93% and the short end moved even more with the 2yr yield rising +9.4bps to 0.38% as the BoE’s inflation forecast and rhetoric caused investors to pull forward rate hike expectations. Yields on 10yr bunds rose +5.2bps, whilst those on the OATs (+6.3bps) and BTPs (+5.7bps) increased substantially as well, but not to the same extent as their US and UK counterparts. While sovereign debt sold off, global equity markets recovered following two consecutive weeks of declines. Although markets entered the week on the back foot following the Evergrande headlines from last weekend, risk sentiment improved at the end of the week, especially toward cyclical industries. The S&P 500 gained +0.51% last week (+0.15% Friday), nearly recouping the prior week’s loss. The equity move was primarily led by cyclicals as higher bond yields helped US banks (+3.43%) outperform, while higher commodity prices saw the energy (+4.46%) sector gain sharply. Those higher bond yields led to a slight rerating of growth stocks as the tech megacap NYFANG index fell back -0.46% on the week and the NASDAQ underperformed, finishing just better than unchanged (+0.02). Nonetheless, with four trading days left in September the S&P 500 is on track for its third losing month this year, following January and June. European equities rose moderately last week, as the STOXX 600 ended the week +0.31% higher despite Friday’s -0.90% loss. Bourses across the continent outperformed led by particularly strong performances by the IBEX (+1.28%) and CAC 40 (+1.04%). There was limited data from Friday. The Ifo's business climate indicator in Germany fell slightly from the previous month to 98.8 (99.0 expected) from 99.4 on the back a lower current assessment even though business expectations was higher than expected. In Italy, consumer confidence rose to 119.6 (115.8 expected), up just over 3pts from August and at its highest level on record (since 1995). Tyler Durden Mon, 09/27/2021 - 08:09.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytSep 27th, 2021

Futures Slide Alongside Cryptocurrencies Amid China Crackdown

Futures Slide Alongside Cryptocurrencies Amid China Crackdown US futures and European stocks fell amid ongoing nerves over the Evergrande default, while cryptocurrency-linked stocks tumbled after the Chinese central bank said such transactions are illegal. Sovereign bond yields fluctuated after an earlier selloff fueled by the prospect of tighter monetary policy. At 745am ET, S&P 500 e-minis were down 19.5 points, or 0.43%, Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 88.75 points, or 0.58% and Dow e-minis were down 112 points, or 0.33%. In the biggest overnight news, Evergrande offshore creditors remain in limbo and still haven't received their coupon payment effectively starting the 30-day grace period, while also in China, the State Planner issued a notice on the crackdown of cryptocurrency mining, will strictly prohibit financing for new crypto mining projects and strengthen energy consumption controls of new crypto mining projects. Subsequently, the PBoC issued a notice to further prevent and dispose of the risks from speculating on cryptocurrencies, to strengthen monitoring of risks from crypto trading and such activities are illegal. The news sent the crypto space tumbling as much as 8% while cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slumped in U.S. premarket trading. Marathon Digital (MARA) drops 6.5%, Bit Digital (BTBT) declines 4.7%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT) -5.9%, Coinbase -2.8%. Big banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp slipped about 0.5%, while oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp were down 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in premarket trading.Mega-cap FAAMG tech giants fell between 0.5% and 0.6%. Nike shed 4.6% after the sportswear maker cut its fiscal 2022 sales expectations and warned of delays during the holiday shopping season. Several analysts lowered their price targets on the maker of sports apparel and sneakers after the company cut its FY revenue growth guidance to mid-single- digits. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Helbiz (HLBZ) falls 10% after the micromobility company filed with the SEC for the sale of as many as 11m shares by stockholders. Focus Universal (FCUV), an online marketing company that’s been a favorite of retail traders, surged 26% in premarket trading after the stock was cited on Stocktwits in recent days. Vail Resorts (MTN) falls 2.7% in postmarket trading after its full-year forecasts for Ebitda and net income missed at the midpoint. GlycoMimetics (GLYC) jumps 15% postmarket after announcing that efficacy and safety data from a Phase 1/2 study of uproleselan in patients with acute myeloid leukemia were published in the journal Blood on Sept. 16. VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) surges 30% after company says its HPP737 psoriasis treatment showed favorable safety and tolerability profile in a multiple ascending dose study. Fears about a sooner-than-expected tapering amid signs of stalling U.S. economic growth and concerns over a spillover from China Evergrande’s default had rattled investors in September, putting the benchmark S&P 500 index on course to snap a seven-month winning streak. Elaine Stokes, a portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., told Bloomberg Television, adding that “what they did is tell us that they feel really good about the economy.” While the bond selloff vindicated Treasury bears who argue yields are too low to reflect fundamentals, others see limits to how high they can go. “We’d expected bond yields to go higher, given the macro situation where growth is still very strong,” Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist with JPMorgan Asset Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “But we do stress that is a modest view, because we think that upside to yields is still limited from here given that central banks including the Fed are still buying bonds.” Still, Wall Street’s main indexes rallied in the past two session and are set for small weekly gains. European equities dipped at the open but trade off worst levels, with the Euro Stoxx 50 sliding as much as 1.1% before climbing off the lows. France's CAC underperformed at the margin. Retail, financial services are the weakest performers. EQT AB, Europe’s biggest listed private equity firm, fell as much as 8.1% after Sweden’s financial watchdog opened an investigation into suspected market abuse. Here are some of the other biggest European movers today: SMCP shares surge as much as 9.9%, advancing for a 9th session in 10, amid continued hopes the financial troubles of its top shareholder will ultimately lead to a sale TeamViewer climbs much as 4.2% after Bankhaus Metzler initiated coverage with a buy rating, citing the company’s above-market growth AstraZeneca gains as much as 3.6% after its Lynparza drug met the primary endpoint in a prostate cancer trial Darktrace drops as much as 9.2%, paring the stock’s rally over the past few weeks, as a technical pattern triggered a sell signal Adidas and Puma fall as much as 4% and 2.9%, respectively, after U.S. rival Nike’s “large cut” to FY sales guidance, which Jefferies said would “likely hurt” shares of European peers Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for a second day, led by rallies in Japan and Taiwan, following U.S. peers higher amid optimism over the Federal Reserve’s bullish economic outlook and fading concerns over widespread contagion from Evergrande. Stocks were muted in China and Hong Kong. India’s S&P BSE Sensex topped the 60,000 level for the first time on Friday on optimism that speedier vaccinations will improve demand for businesses in Asia’s third-largest economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%, with TSMC and Sony the biggest boosts. That trimmed the regional benchmark’s loss for the week to about 1%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.1%, reopening after a holiday, pushing its advance for September to 7.7%, the best among major global gauges. The Asian regional benchmark pared its gain as Hong Kong stocks fell sharply in late afternoon trading amid continued uncertainty, with Evergrande giving no sign of making an interest payment that was due Thursday. Among key upcoming events is the leadership election for Japan’s ruling party next week, which will likely determine the country’s next prime minister. “Investor concerns over the Evergrande issue have retreated a bit for now,” said Hajime Sakai, chief fund manager at Mito Securities Co. in Tokyo. “But investors will have to keep downside risk in the corner of their minds.” Indian stocks rose, pushing the Sensex above 60,000 for the first time ever. Key gauges fell in Singapore, Malaysia and Australia, while the Thai market was closed for a holiday. Treasuries are higher as U.S. trading day begins after rebounding from weekly lows reached during Asia session, adding to Thursday’s losses. The 10-year yield was down 1bp at ~1.42%, just above the 100-DMA breached on Thursday for the first time in three months; it climbed to 1.449% during Asia session, highest since July 6, and remains 5.2bp higher on the week, its fifth straight weekly increase. Several Fed speakers are slated, first since Wednesday’s FOMC commentary set forth a possible taper timeline.  Bunds and gilts recover off cheapest levels, curves bear steepening. USTs bull steepen, richening 1.5bps from the 10y point out. Peripheral spreads are wider. BTP spreads widen 2-3bps to Bunds. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed back from a one-week low as concern about possible contagion from Evergrande added to buying of the greenback based on the Federal Reserve tapering timeline signaled on Wednesday. NZD, AUD and CAD sit at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. ZAR and TRY are the weakest in EM FX. The pound fell after its rally on Thursday as investors looked ahead to BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s sPeech next week about a possible interest-rate hike. Traders are betting that in a contest to raise borrowing costs first, the Bank of England will be the runaway winner over the Federal Reserve. The New Zealand and Aussie dollars led declines among Group-of-10 peers. The euro was trading flat, with a week full of events failing “to generate any clear directional move,” said ING analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner. German IFO sentiment indeces will “provide extra indications about the area’s sentiment as  businesses faced a combination of delta variant concerns and lingering supply disruptions”. The Norwegian krone is the best performing currency among G10 peers this week, with Thursday’s announcement from the Norges Bank offering support In commodities, crude futures hold a narrow range up around best levels for the week. WTI stalls near $73.40, Brent near $77.50. Spot gold extends Asia’s gains, adding $12 on the session to trade near $1,755/oz. Base metals are mixed, LME nickel and aluminum drop ~1%, LME tin outperforms with a 2.8% rally. Bitcoin dips after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal. Looking to the day ahead now, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,423.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 464.18 German 10Y yield fell 8.5 bps to -0.236% Euro little changed at $1.1737 MXAP up 0.4% to 201.25 MXAPJ down 0.5% to 643.20 Nikkei up 2.1% to 30,248.81 Topix up 2.3% to 2,090.75 Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 24,192.16 Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,613.07 Sensex up 0.2% to 60,031.83 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,342.60 Kospi little changed at 3,125.24 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $77.57/bbl Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,755.38 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.14 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg China Evergrande Group’s unusual silence about a dollar-bond interest payment that was due Thursday has put a focus on what might happen during a 30-day grace period. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target is increasingly out of step with international counterparts and fails to account for structural changes in the country’s economy over the past 30 years, Westpac Banking Corp.’s Bill Evans said. With central banks from Washington to London this week signaling more alarm over faster inflation, the ultra-stimulative path of the euro zone and some of its neighbors appears lonelier than ever. China’s central bank continued to pump liquidity into the financial system on Friday as policy makers sought to avoid contagion stemming from China Evergrande Group spreading to domestic markets. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mixed with the region failing to fully sustain the impetus from the positive performance across global counterparts after the silence from Evergrande and lack of coupon payments for its offshore bonds, stirred uncertainty for the company. ASX 200 (-0.4%) was negative as underperformance in mining names and real estate overshadowed the advances in tech and resilience in financials from the higher yield environment. Nikkei 225 (+2.1%) was the biggest gainer overnight as it played catch up to the prior day’s recovery on return from the Autumnal Equinox holiday in Japan and with exporters cheering the recent risk-conducive currency flows, while KOSPI (-0.1%) was lacklustre amid the record daily COVID-19 infections and after North Korea deemed that it was premature to declare that the Korean War was over. Hang Seng (-1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) were indecisive after further liquidity efforts by the PBoC were offset by concerns surrounding Evergrande after the Co. failed to make coupon payments due yesterday for offshore bonds but has a 30-day grace period with the Co. remaining quiet on the issue. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower on spillover selling from global counterparts including the declines in T-notes as the US 10yr yield breached 1.40% for the first time since early-July with the pressure in bonds also stemming from across the Atlantic following a more hawkish BoE, while the presence of the BoJ in the market today for over JPY 1.3tln of government bonds with 1yr-10yr maturities did very little to spur prices. Top Asian News Rivals for Prime Minister Battle on Social Media: Japan Election Asian Stocks Rise for Second Day, Led by Gains in Japan, Taiwan Hong Kong Stocks Still Wagged by Evergrande Tail Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index Extends Decline to More Than 2% European equities (Stoxx 600 -0.9%) are trading on the back foot in the final trading session of the week amid further advances in global bond yields and a mixed APAC handover. Overnight, saw gains for the Nikkei 225 of 2.1% with the index aided by favourable currency flows, whilst Chinese markets lagged (Shanghai Comp. -0.8%, Hang Seng -1.6%) with further liquidity efforts by the PBoC offset by concerns surrounding Evergrande after the Co. failed to make coupon payments due yesterday for offshore bonds. As context, despite the losses in Europe today, the Stoxx 600 is still higher by some 1.2% on the week. Stateside, futures are also on a softer footing with the ES down by 0.4% ahead of a busy Fed speaker schedule. Back to Europe, sectors are lower across the board with Retail and Personal & Household Goods lagging peers. The former has been hampered by losses in Adidas (-3.0%) following after hours earnings from Nike (-4.2% pre-market) which saw the Co. cut its revenue guidance amid supply chain woes. AstraZeneca (+2.1%) sits at the top of the FTSE 100 after announcing that the Lynparza PROpel trial met its primary endpoint. Daimler’s (+0.1%) Mercedes-Benz has announced that it will take a 33% stake in a battery cell manufacturing JV with Total and Stellantis. EQT (-6.5%) sits at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the Swedish FSA announced it will open an investigation into the Co. Top European News EQT Investigated by Sweden’s FSA Over Suspected Market Abuse Gazprom Says Claims of Gas Under-supply to Europe Are ‘Absurd’ German Sept. Ifo Business Confidence 98.8; Est. 99 German Business Index at Five-Month Low in Pre-Election Verdict In FX, the rot seems to have stopped for the Buck in terms of its sharp and marked fall from grace amidst post-FOMC reflection and re-positioning in the financial markets on Thursday. Indeed, the Dollar index has regained some poise to hover above the 93.000 level having recoiled from 93.526 to 92.977 over the course of yesterday’s hectic session that saw the DXY register a marginal new w-t-d high and low at either end of the spectrum. Pre-weekend short covering and consolidation may be giving the Greenback a lift, while the risk backdrop is also less upbeat ahead of a raft of Fed speakers flanking US new home sales data. Elsewhere, the Euro remains relatively sidelined and contained against the Buck with little independent inspiration from the latest German Ifo survey as the business climate deteriorated broadly in line with consensus and current conditions were worse than forecast, but business expectations were better than anticipated. Hence, Eur/Usd is still stuck in a rut and only briefly/fractionally outside 1.1750-00 parameters for the entire week, thus far, as hefty option expiry interest continues to keep the headline pair in check. However, there is significantly less support or gravitational pull at the round number today compared to Thursday as ‘only’ 1.3 bn rolls off vs 4.1 bn, and any upside breach could be capped by 1.1 bn between 1.1765-85. CAD/NZD/AUD - Some payback for the non-US Dollars following their revival, with the Loonie waning from 1.2650+ peaks ahead of Canadian budget balances, though still underpinned by crude as WTI hovers around Usd 73.50/brl and not far from decent option expiries (from 1.2655-50 and 1.2625-30 in 1.4 bn each). Similarly, the Kiwi has faded after climbing to within single digits of 0.7100 in wake of NZ trade data overnight revealing a much wider deficit as exports slowed and imports rose, while the Aussie loses grip of the 0.7300 handle and skirts 1.1 bn option expiries at 0.7275. CHF/GBP/JPY - The Franc is fairly flat and restrained following a dovish SNB policy review that left in lagging somewhat yesterday, with Usd/Chf and Eur/Chf straddling 0.9250 and 1.0850 respectively, in contrast to Sterling that is paring some hawkish BoE momentum, as Cable retreats to retest bids circa 1.3700 and Eur/Gbp bounces from sub-0.8550. Elsewhere, the Yen has not been able to fend off further downside through 110.00 even though Japanese participants have returned to the fray after the Autumn Equinox holiday and reports suggest some COVID-19 restrictions may be lifted in 13 prefectures on a trial basis. SCANDI/EM/PM/CRYPTO - A slight change in the pecking order in Scandi-land as the Nok loses some post-Norges Bank hike impetus and the Sek unwinds a bit of its underperformance, but EM currencies are bearing the brunt of the aforementioned downturn in risk sentiment and firmer Usd, with the Zar hit harder than other as Gold is clings to Usd 1750/oz and Try down to deeper post-CBRT rate cut lows after mixed manufacturing sentiment and cap u readings. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being shackled by the latest Chinese crackdown on mining and efforts to limit risks from what it describes as unlawful speculative crypto currency trading. In commodities, WTI and Brent are set the conclude the week in the green with gains in excess of 2% for WTI at the time of writing; in-spite of the pressure seen in the complex on Monday and the first-half of Tuesday, where a sub USD 69.50/bbl low was printed. Fresh newsflow has, once again, been limited for the complex and continues to focus on the gas situation. More broadly, no update as of yet on the Evergrande interest payment and by all accounts we appear to have entered the 30-day grace period for this and, assuming catalysts remain slim, updates on this will may well dictate the state-of-play. Schedule wise, the session ahead eyes significant amounts of central bank commentary but from a crude perspective the weekly Baker Hughes rig count will draw attention. On the weather front, Storm Sam has been upgraded to a Hurricane and is expected to rapidly intensify but currently remains someway into the mid-Atlantic. Moving to metals, LME copper is pivoting the unchanged mark after a mixed APAC lead while attention is on Glencore’s CSA copper mine, which it has received an offer for; the site in 2020 produced circa. 46k/T of copper which is typically exported to Asia smelters. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are firmer but have been very contained and remain well-within overnight ranges thus far. Which sees the yellow metal holding just above the USD 1750/oz mark after a brief foray below the level after the US-close. US Event Calendar 10am: Aug. New Home Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0% 10am: Aug. New Home Sales, est. 715,000, prior 708,000 Central Bank Speakers 8:45am: Fed’s Mester Discusses the Economic Outlook 10am: Powell, Clarida and Bowman Host Fed Listens Event 10:05am: Fed’s George Discusses Economic Outlook 12pm: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Equitable Community Development DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap WFH today is a bonus as it’s time for the annual ritual at home where the latest, sleekest, shiniest iPhone model arrives in the post and i sheepishly try to justify to my wife when I get home why I need an incremental upgrade. This year to save me from the Spanish Inquisition I’m going to intercept the courier and keep quiet. Problem is that such speed at intercepting the delivery will be logistically challenging as I remain on crutches (5 weeks to go) and can’t grip properly with my left hand due to an ongoing trapped nerve. I’m very glad I’m not a racehorse. Although hopefully I can be put out to pasture in front of the Ryder Cup this weekend. The big news of the last 24 hours has been a galloping global yield rise worthy of the finest thoroughbred. A hawkish Fed meeting, with the dots increasing and the end of QE potentially accelerated, didn’t quite have the ability to move markets but the global dam finally broke yesterday with Norway being the highest profile developed country to raise rates this cycle (expected), but more importantly a Bank of England meeting that saw the market reappraise rate hikes. Looking at the specific moves, yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +13.0bps to 1.430% in their biggest daily increase since 25 February, as both higher real rates (+7.9bps) and inflation breakevens (+4.9bps) drove the advance. US 10yr yields had been trading in a c.10bp range for the last month before breaking out higher, though they have been trending higher since dropping as far as 1.17% back in early-August. US 30yr yields rose +13.2bps, which was the biggest one day move in long dated yields since March 17 2020, which was at the onset of the pandemic and just days after the Fed announced it would be starting the current round of QE. The large selloff in US bonds saw the yield curve steepen and the long-end give back roughly half of the FOMC flattening from the day before. The 5y30y curve steepened 3.4bps for a two day move of -3.3bps. However the 2y10y curve steepened +10.5bps, completely reversing the prior day’s flattening (-4.2bps) and leaving the spread at 116bp, the steepest level since first week of July. 10yr gilt yields saw nearly as strong a move (+10.8bps) with those on shorter-dated 2yr gilts (+10.7bps) hitting their highest level (0.386%) since the pandemic began.That came on the back of the BoE’s latest policy decision, which pointed in a hawkish direction, building on the comment in the August statement that “some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period is likely to be necessary” by saying that “some developments during the intervening period appear to have strengthened that case”. The statement pointed out that the rise in gas prices since August represented an upside risks to their inflation projections from next April, and the MPC’s vote also saw 2 members (up from 1 in August) vote to dial back QE. See DB’s Sanjay Raja’s revised rate hike forecasts here. We now expect a 15bps hike in February. The generalised move saw yields in other European countries rise as well, with those on 10yr bunds (+6.6bps), OATs (+6.5bps) and BTPs (+5.7bps) all seeing big moves higher with 10yr bunds seeing their biggest climb since late-February and back to early-July levels as -0.258%. The yield rise didn’t stop equity indices recovering further from Monday’s rout, with the S&P 500 up +1.21% as the index marked its best performance in over 2 months, and its best 2-day performance since May. Despite the mood at the end of the weekend, the S&P now starts Friday in positive territory for the week. The rally yesterday was led by cyclicals for a second straight day with higher commodity prices driving outsized gains for energy (+3.41%) and materials (+1.39%) stocks, and the aforementioned higher yields causing banks (+3.37%) and diversified financials (+2.35%) to outperform. The reopening trade was the other main beneficiary as airlines rose +2.99% and consumer services, which include hotel and cruiseline companies, gained +1.92%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.93%) witnessed a similarly strong performance, with index led by banks (+2.16%). As a testament to the breadth of yesterday’s rally, the travel and leisure sector (+0.04%) was the worst performing sector on this side of the Atlantic even while registering a small gain and lagging its US counterparts. Before we get onto some of yesterday’s other events, it’s worth noting that this is actually the last EMR before the German election on Sunday, which has long been signposted as one of the more interesting macro events on the 2021 calendar, the results of which will play a key role in not just domestic, but also EU policy. And with Chancellor Merkel stepping down after four terms in office, this means that the country will soon be under new management irrespective of who forms a government afterwards. It’s been a volatile campaign in many respects, with Chancellor Merkel’s CDU/CSU, the Greens and the centre-left SPD all having been in the lead at various points over the last six months. But for the last month Politico’s Poll of Polls has shown the SPD consistently ahead, with their tracker currently putting them on 25%, ahead of the CDU/CSU on 22% and the Greens on 16%. However the latest poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen yesterday suggested a tighter race with the SPD at 25, the CDU/CSU at 23% and the Greens at 16.5%. If the actual results are in line with the recent averages, it would certainly mark a sea change in German politics, as it would be the first time that the SPD have won the popular vote since the 2002 election. Furthermore, it would be the CDU/CSU’s worst ever result, and mark the first time in post-war Germany that the two main parties have failed to win a majority of the vote between them, which mirrors the erosion of the traditional big parties in the rest of continental Europe. For the Greens, 15% would be their best ever score, and exceed the 9% they got back in 2017 that left them in 6th place, but it would also be a disappointment relative to their high hopes back in the spring, when they were briefly polling in the mid-20s after Annalena Baerbock was selected as their Chancellor candidate. In terms of when to expect results, the polls close at 17:00 London time, with initial exit polls released immediately afterwards. However, unlike the UK, where a new majority government can immediately come to power the day after the election, the use of proportional representation in Germany means that it could potentially be weeks or months before a new government is formed. Indeed, after the last election in September 2017, it wasn’t until March 2018 that the new grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD took office, after attempts to reach a “Jamaica” coalition between the CDU/CSU, the FDP and the Greens was unsuccessful. In the meantime, the existing government will act as a caretaker administration. On the policy implications, it will of course depend on what sort of government is actually formed, but our research colleagues in Frankfurt have produced a comprehensive slidepack (link here) running through what the different parties want across a range of policies, and what the likely coalitions would mean for Germany. They also put out another note yesterday (link here) where they point out that there’s still much to play for, with the SPD’s lead inside the margin of error and with an unusually high share of yet undecided voters. Moving on to Asia and markets are mostly higher with the Nikkei (+2.04%), CSI (+0.53%) and India’s Nifty (+0.52%) up while the Hang Seng (-0.03%), Shanghai Comp (-0.07%) and Kospi (-0.10%) have all made small moves lower. Meanwhile, the Evergrande group missed its dollar bond coupon payment yesterday and so far there has been no communication from the group on this. They have a 30-day grace period to make the payment before any event of default can be declared. This follows instructions from China’s Financial regulators yesterday in which they urged the group to take all measures possible to avoid a near-term default on dollar bonds while focusing on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors. Yields on Australia and New Zealand’s 10y sovereign bonds are up +14.5bps and +11.3bps respectively this morning after yesterday’s move from their western counterparts. Yields on 10y USTs are also up a further +1.1bps to 1.443%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.04% while those on the Stoxx 50 are down -0.10%. In terms of overnight data, Japan’s August CPI printed at -0.4% yoy (vs. -0.3% yoy expected) while core was unchanged in line with expectations. We also received Japan’s flash PMIs with the services reading at 47.4 (vs. 42.9 last month) while the manufacturing reading came in at 51.2 (vs. 52.7 last month). In pandemic related news, Jiji reported that Japan is planning to conduct trials of easing Covid restrictions, with 13 prefectures indicating they’d like to participate. This is likely contributing to the outperformance of the Nikkei this morning. Back to yesterday now, and one of the main highlights came from the flash PMIs, which showed a continued deceleration in growth momentum across Europe and the US, and also underwhelmed relative to expectations. Running through the headline numbers, the Euro Area composite PMI fell to 56.1 (vs. 58.5 expected), which is the lowest figure since April, as both the manufacturing (58.7 vs 60.3 expected) and services (56.3 vs. 58.5 expected) came in beneath expectations. Over in the US, the composite PMI fell to 54.5 in its 4th consecutive decline, as the index hit its lowest level in a year, while the UK’s composite PMI at 54.1 (vs. 54.6 expected) was the lowest since February when the country was still in a nationwide lockdown. Risk assets seemed unperturbed by the readings, and commodities actually took another leg higher as they rebounded from their losses at the start of the week. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index rose +1.12% as Brent crude oil (+1.39%) closed at $77.25/bbl, which marked its highest closing level since late 2018, while WTI (+1.07%) rose to $73.30/bbl, so still a bit beneath its recent peak in July. However that is a decent rebound of roughly $11/bbl since its recent low just over a month ago. Elsewhere, gold (-1.44%) took a knock amidst the sharp move higher in yields, while European natural gas prices subsidised for a third day running, with futures now down -8.5% from their intraday peak on Tuesday, although they’re still up by +71.3% since the start of August. US negotiations regarding the upcoming funding bill and raising the debt ceiling are ongoing, with House Speaker Pelosi saying that the former, also called a continuing resolution, will pass “both houses by September 30,” and fund the government through the first part of the fiscal year, starting October 1. Treasury Secretary Yellen has said the US will likely breach the debt ceiling sometime in the next month if Congress does not increase the level, and because Republicans are unwilling to vote to raise the ceiling, Democrats will have to use the once-a-fiscal-year tool of budget reconciliation to do so. However Democrats, are also using that process for the $3.5 trillion dollar economic plan that makes up the bulk of the Biden agenda, and have not been able to get full party support yet. During a joint press conference with Speaker Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that Democrats have a “framework” to pay for the Biden Economic agenda, which would imply that the broad outline of a deal was reached between the House, Senate and the White House. However, no specifics were mentioned yesterday. With Democrats looking to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill early next week, negotiations today and this weekend on the potential reconciliation package will be vital. Looking at yesterday’s other data, the weekly initial jobless claims from the US for the week through September 18 unexpectedly rose to 351k (vs. 320k expected), which is the second week running they’ve come in above expectations. Separately, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index fell to 0.29 in August (vs. 0.50 expected), and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index also fell more than expected to 22 in September (vs. 25 expected). To the day ahead now, and data highlights include the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany for September, along with Italian consumer confidence for September and US new home sales for August. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/24/2021 - 08:12.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 24th, 2021