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Midland, Texas Residents Suffer From Scorching 10% Inflation

Midland, Texas Residents Suffer From Scorching 10% Inflation Midland, Texas is just one of the many American cities that is struggling to keep pace with scorching inflation in the country. The city, whose economy relies on oil, was called the "number 1 spot for inflation" by a new Bloomberg profile of its residents, who shared stories of how the rising cost of living was negatively affecting everyday life.  Inflation in Midland has been at about 10% for the last 6 months, the article notes, resulting in "menus at local restaurants [with] sticky notes telling diners that prices have been raised" and a gallon of gas reportedly costing about $6. Additionally, "hundreds of cars" line up outside the area’s largest food bank every Wednesday. The West Texas Food Bank in Odessa has seen a line of cars growing longer every week, with numbers rivaling that of what they were doing peak Covid crisis in 2020.  Jesus and Nativia Zepda, who have waited in the line, told Bloomberg: “The only food I can buy at the grocery store anymore is eggs and beans.” Another resident, Eduardo Gama, told Bloomberg that his wages haven't kept up with inflation. Libby Campbell, chief executive officer of the West Texas Food Bank, said: “With the cost of living out here and inflation — people just aren’t able to keep up.” Single mom Melinda Hernandez lives with her 19 year old son in southern Midland. She lost her primary job and has been delivering pizza's for $10/hour. She said: “I don’t want to fail my son and it’s my fear.” Legendary Barn Door Steakhouse owner Roy Gillean, who is based on Odessa, has raised the price of his Tomahawk steak "several times". It's priced at $62 but should be priced "closer to $70," he said.  Bo Garrison, owner of Permian Dirt Works LLC, was told there were no more bulldozers available for him, nor were their any additional Ford F-250's to be bought "until at least 2023". Garrison's business use about two dozen trucks, excavators and bulldozers on a daily basis.  He has raised wages up to 20% over the past year and pays "nearly double" what he paid for fuel a few months ago. “How much cash do I keep putting in without knowing what will happen in the end?” he said. “Now I gotta cross my fingers and pray that my mechanics are taking care of the equipment because if they break, that’s it,” he told Bloomberg.  Nonprofit Christmas in Action, which repairs homes for elderly owners, said that water heater prices have "doubled" along with lumber and siding over the past year. Nathan Knowles, director of operations, told Bloomberg: “When prices make a big jump like this, they just don’t come back down.” The biggest health-care provider in the region, Medical Center Health System, will be asking insurers in October to reimburse more for procedures. President Russell Tippin said: “The only thing I know is that it will go up and if it goes up, it’ll come down. But this is the first time I’ve doubted that. West Texas is experiencing double inflation — oil inflation and then the inflation of gas and milk and everything else.” Tyler Durden Fri, 05/13/2022 - 18:40.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytMay 13th, 2022

Midland, Texas Residents Suffer From Scorching 10% Inflation

Midland, Texas Residents Suffer From Scorching 10% Inflation Midland, Texas is just one of the many American cities that is struggling to keep pace with scorching inflation in the country. The city, whose economy relies on oil, was called the "number 1 spot for inflation" by a new Bloomberg profile of its residents, who shared stories of how the rising cost of living was negatively affecting everyday life.  Inflation in Midland has been at about 10% for the last 6 months, the article notes, resulting in "menus at local restaurants [with] sticky notes telling diners that prices have been raised" and a gallon of gas reportedly costing about $6. Additionally, "hundreds of cars" line up outside the area’s largest food bank every Wednesday. The West Texas Food Bank in Odessa has seen a line of cars growing longer every week, with numbers rivaling that of what they were doing peak Covid crisis in 2020.  Jesus and Nativia Zepda, who have waited in the line, told Bloomberg: “The only food I can buy at the grocery store anymore is eggs and beans.” Another resident, Eduardo Gama, told Bloomberg that his wages haven't kept up with inflation. Libby Campbell, chief executive officer of the West Texas Food Bank, said: “With the cost of living out here and inflation — people just aren’t able to keep up.” Single mom Melinda Hernandez lives with her 19 year old son in southern Midland. She lost her primary job and has been delivering pizza's for $10/hour. She said: “I don’t want to fail my son and it’s my fear.” Legendary Barn Door Steakhouse owner Roy Gillean, who is based on Odessa, has raised the price of his Tomahawk steak "several times". It's priced at $62 but should be priced "closer to $70," he said.  Bo Garrison, owner of Permian Dirt Works LLC, was told there were no more bulldozers available for him, nor were their any additional Ford F-250's to be bought "until at least 2023". Garrison's business use about two dozen trucks, excavators and bulldozers on a daily basis.  He has raised wages up to 20% over the past year and pays "nearly double" what he paid for fuel a few months ago. “How much cash do I keep putting in without knowing what will happen in the end?” he said. “Now I gotta cross my fingers and pray that my mechanics are taking care of the equipment because if they break, that’s it,” he told Bloomberg.  Nonprofit Christmas in Action, which repairs homes for elderly owners, said that water heater prices have "doubled" along with lumber and siding over the past year. Nathan Knowles, director of operations, told Bloomberg: “When prices make a big jump like this, they just don’t come back down.” The biggest health-care provider in the region, Medical Center Health System, will be asking insurers in October to reimburse more for procedures. President Russell Tippin said: “The only thing I know is that it will go up and if it goes up, it’ll come down. But this is the first time I’ve doubted that. West Texas is experiencing double inflation — oil inflation and then the inflation of gas and milk and everything else.” Tyler Durden Fri, 05/13/2022 - 18:40.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytMay 13th, 2022

Marco Rubio vs. Val Demings is set to test whether Democrats should just give up on red-shifting Florida

Demings is seeking household-name status while facing long odds in her US Senate race. Her results will be telling for Democrats' future in Florida. Rep. Val Demings is expected to win the Democratic primary race for a US Senate seat in Florida. If she does, she'll face off against Republican Sen. Marco Rubio in the general election.Tasos Katopodis/Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images; Rachel Mendelson/Insider Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is expected to face off against Rep. Val Demings for a US Senate seat. Rubio is running at a time when many are wondering whether Florida is even a battleground anymore. Demings is traveling the state to make her pitch to an increasingly conservative electorate. MIAMI — Sen. Marco Rubio's 2016 presidential run gave him national name recognition. Then, after complaining for years about Congress' ineffectiveness, the Florida Republican threw himself into his Senate work.He can now tick off a list of accomplishments. There's his push to double the child tax credit and focus on expanding care for veterans. He secured Everglades funding. And he cowrote the Paycheck Protection Program that sent big money to small businesses at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.Rubio is also one of Congress' go-to experts on foreign policy, and two years ago he landed a coveted role as the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee.And entering the teeth of election season, Rubio, 50, is wearing it all like armor as he seeks a third term."I don't think anybody that's ever served the state of Florida in the Senate has gotten more done than I have over the last five years," Rubio told Insider.But Republicans know better than to take Florida for granted.Ahead of the state's primary in August, a clear Democratic frontrunner to challenge Rubio has emerged: Rep. Val Demings.In Demings, Democrats see a star — a Black woman trailblazer who spent 27 years in law enforcement, including as the chief of police in Orlando.At a recent campaign event with union members in Miami, Demings, 65, appeared confident as she wove stories about her life into a narrative about the need to raise wages, increase voting access, and make healthcare more affordable."We are fighting for the very soul of this country," Demings told a riveted audience. "We are fighting for the Constitution, the rule of law, and our democracy."As if that's not enough, Demings would also carry into November the burden of her party's national aspirations.Florida's US Senate race will be crucial for Democrats' hope — a dwindling one, some liberals concede — of retaining their bare-bones Senate majority. Floridians have dealt blows to Democrats over three election cycles, leading many to question whether the state Barack Obama won twice can even be called a battleground anymore.As of late 2021, Florida's registered Republicans outnumbered its Democrats.Demings could be Democrats' last, best shot at winning statewide office in Florida not only in 2022 but for the foreseeable future.Demings rallied over 200 supporters in Pensacola, Florida, on April 30.Courtesy Demings campaignDemings is still introducing herself to FloridaPolling from the University of North Florida suggests Rubio's reelection prospects are strong. And he enjoys a national backdrop where Democrats could suffer at ballot boxes nationwide amid President Joe Biden's steadily sinking job-approval ratings, now in the low 40s, according to Gallup.Rubio has the added benefit of running on the same ticket as GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis, who's expected to sail to reelection in 2022 ahead of a potential run for president in 2024.One of the biggest tasks Demings has before her is to become a household name.To do that, and to introduce herself to prospective voters, she's conducting campaign events all over Florida.Born Valdez Venita Butler, the youngest of seven children of a janitor and a maid, Demings was the first in her family to graduate from college. She briefly worked as a social worker in Jacksonville before launching a career in Orlando law enforcement. After losing a US House run in 2012 and dropping out of the mayoral race in Orange County, Florida, she won a US House seat in Florida's 10th District in 2016.—Val Demings (@valdemings) February 11, 2022At the union meeting in Miami, Demings stood at a table without any notes before her. She took dramatic pauses between sentences. At times, the 20-person audience seated around her even finished her sentences.Her pitch to voters is straightforward: She overcame enormous odds to realize the American dream, and she wants to be a senator to create more opportunities for others to realize it, too.Once Demings had finished, Elizabeth Judd, a community leader and member of the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, told her she's enthralled by her candidacy."It is of the utmost urgency that you replace little Rubio," Judd said, invoking Donald Trump's nickname for Rubio when they were both vying for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.Wes Hodge, the chair of the Orange County Democratic Party, who has worked with Demings at political events, predicted that speaking all over Florida would be a particularly effective strategy for Demings. Hodge said he always puts himself after her in a speaker lineup."The worst place to speak is after Congresswoman Demings," Hodge said, laughing. "I always go, 'I don't wish the spot on anybody, so I'll fall on the sword.'"When she is done speaking, the room is ready to do whatever she wants."But it'll take more than rhetoric to win Florida, a state of more than 21.5 million that's growing increasingly conservative.Both nationally and in Florida, Demings lacks the public profile Rubio so enjoys.Outside her Orlando-centric home district, in places such as Gainesville or Pensacola, Demings isn't a household name.And though she's known for her authoritative questioning of witnesses during congressional hearings, she has sometimes dodged publicity by avoiding reporters as she slips in and out of votes on Capitol Hill.Demings' esteem within Democratic circles has, however, steadily grown, starting with her work as a House impeachment manager during Trump's first Senate trial in 2020.Though the GOP-controlled Senate acquitted Trump, her performance at the trial shone so brightly that it catapulted her to the short list of candidates for Biden's running mate. Demings seemed to embrace the possibility of being vice president, even if Biden ultimately selected Sen. Kamala Harris of California.So how does Demings appeal to voters beyond a dwindling base of loyal Democrats?In part by being who she is.Demings speaks openly about race, inequality, and injustice in America, but her campaign also unabashedly plays up her experience in law enforcement. Demings' husband, Jerry Demings, the mayor of Orange County, is also a former sheriff.It's hardly an accident that Demings is often billed as "Chief Demings" instead of "Congresswoman Demings" in congressional and campaign materials.It's a recognition that her long background in law enforcement — where she said she oversaw a 40% reduction in violent crime — where she could help inoculate against Republican attacks seeking to cast all Democrats as supportive of progressives' unpopular movement to defund the police. It could also help her appeal to center-right independents who aren't enthralled with Rubio.—Val Demings (@valdemings) April 30, 2022"This is the candidate Rubio didn't want to run against," said Eric Johnson, the president of Johnson Strategies, who advised Rubio's 2016 Democratic opponent, Patrick Murphy."Her profile is literally the best," said Joshua Wolf, another Murphy campaign vet whose firm, AL Media Strategies, is working with the Demings campaign. "She has this incredible ability to motivate the base."In August's Democratic primary, which Demings is expected to easily win, she faces seven competitors, including former Rep. Alan Grayson. All the while, Demings' staunchest allies say she has to keep introducing herself to Floridians.In a University of North Florida poll conducted in February, 17% of voters said they were undecided on a Rubio-Demings matchup — a positive statistic for someone who must grow beyond her base in order to win.Vincent Adejumo, a professor of African American studies at the University of Florida in Gainesville, told Insider that to win, Demings would need to receive overwhelming support from Black voters and bring over white centrists.He added that she would also need to siphon off Latinos from Rubio. But the senator's personal profile helps with that demographic: Rubio speaks fluent Spanish, having grown up in Miami as the child of working-class Cuban immigrants. He has a critical advantage in the state's most populous county, Miami-Dade, where he lives and where roughly 70% of residents are Latino.During the first quarter of this year, Demings raised $10 million, while Rubio raised $5.7 million, according to federal campaign-finance disclosures.Mandel Ngan-Pool/Getty ImagesA nationalized Senate raceOne major factor working in Demings' favor is that she's raising a ton of money. Her campaign recently announced a $3 million Hispanic outreach effort.During the first quarter of this year, Demings raised $10 million compared with Rubio's $5.7 million, according to federal campaign-finance disclosures.That's serious cash. Of everyone running for a Senate seat in 2022, Demings has so far raised the fifth-most, at nearly $30.8 million. (Rubio is right behind her, at $30.2 million.)Outside attention is pouring in, too. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is pumping $30 million into nine states it considers battlegrounds for Democrats, including Florida. And Florida Democrats have committed to spending $15 million to increase Democratic voter turnout up and down the ballot.Super PACs — political committees that may raise and spend unlimited sums of money, fueled by megadonors with no particular tie to Florida — are also expected to inject millions of dollars into the race.Given this, a Rubio-Demings showdown is almost certain to rank among the most expensive races in the 2022 midterms, set to soar well into nine figures by the time a winner is declared.This doesn't guarantee Demings' success — in 2020, Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, now the minority leader, trounced his Democratic challenger, Amy McGrath, despite McGrath outraising him. But major financial resources are a prerequisite if Demings has any realistic hope of toppling Rubio."That just tells you how viable she is," Juan Marcos Vilar, the executive director of Alianza for Progress, a group that works to motivate Democratic Latino voters, said of Demings. "If she wasn't viable, it wouldn't generate that level of investment on both sides. It's going to be a clash of titans."It also suggests that Democrats aren't ready to cede Florida to the GOP.Democratic leaders often note that, yes, Florida voted for Trump over both Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 — but it has also voted for liberal policy staples such as implementing a $15 minimum wage, legalizing medical marijuana, restoring voting rights for people found guilty of felonies, and spending billions of dollars on environmental conservation.All these factors show why Republicans, too, are not complacent in the race.Consider that the Republican National Committee just launched what it's calling "Operation Red" in Florida to knock on thousands of doors and make phone calls on behalf of Republicans including Rubio.Republicans also say they aren't scared by Demings' strong fundraising or her potential with independent voters. They contend that Rubio's name recognition is worth its weight in gold — literally. Other candidates have to buy that recognition through TV, radio, and digital ads in a state with a huge population and multiple major media markets."Democrats have a weak bench, and they feel Val Demings is the best they got," Helen Aguirre Ferré, the executive director of the Republican Party of Florida, told Insider. "They will have to spend a lot of money to sell her image, and good luck to them, because Val Demings doesn't have a record that's worthy of winning a Senate seat."Ana Carbonell, a top GOP operative in Florida who owns the public-policy firm The Factor, said the money itself would do little without an understanding of Florida's voting blocs."Unless you have a keen understanding of the communities throughout the state and the nuances throughout the state, the money doesn't mean anything if you don't have an understanding on how to use it," she said."Democrats have proven time and time again that they just don't get it," she added.Rubio has been calling Demings a "Pelosi puppet."Stefani Reynolds-Pool/Getty Images'Pelosi puppet' versus 'Missing Marco'Because Demings is still introducing herself to voters, Rubio, whose name recognition is all but universal in Florida, has space to define his opponent.For example, Rubio has called Demings a "Pelosi puppet" on Twitter, referring to her tendency to side with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on votes.—Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) December 15, 2021When asked how he stands apart from Demings, Rubio said his office gets high ratings for constituent service. Elizabeth Gregory, a Rubio campaign spokeswoman, said Demings had "zero substantive accomplishments to show for her time in Washington."Democrats' bottom-line message is to cast Rubio as a political lifer devoted more to his party and his own advancement than to voters."Marco Rubio lacks the integrity to put Floridians before the special interest donors that tell him what to do," said Christian Slater, a spokesman for the Demings campaign.The Demings' campaign has contrasted the two lawmakers' votes, pummeling Rubio over voting against Democrats' $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package and the bipartisan infrastructure bill to help fix Florida's roads and bridges.Florida Democrats have been recycling an attack that dates back to Rubio's 2016 presidential campaign by sending out a "Missing Marco Alert" every time he doesn't attend committee meetings — particularly when he appears on national TV instead."He hasn't been around," Manny Diaz, the chairman of the Florida Democratic Party, told Insider in Miami. "You almost sense that he no longer likes the job. His record of showing up to votes and committee meetings is horrendous."Rubio has said he voted against the spending measures because of concerns about the deficit and inflation. Asked about committee absences, Ferré replied, "Floridians care about results, and Senator Rubio delivers."Other attacks against Rubio have been similar to those waged against Republicans in other states.For instance, in recent days Demings has been stumping and fundraising on a promise to codify abortion rights in federal law as the Supreme Court appears poised to overturn Roe v. Wade. Rubio opposes abortion.The Demings campaign also has sought to tie Rubio to a controversial plan from fellow Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, to force everyone to pay at least some taxes.While Rubio hasn't supported such a measure, the Demings campaign labeled the plan the "Rubio-Scott Tax Hike" and ran an ad imploring voters to "tell Rubio to take a hike." In turn, the Rubio campaign has accused Demings of "auditioning to be Joe Biden's running mate" when Rubio was working on COVID-19 relief for small businesses.But the Demings campaign has a tougher task than other Democrats have in going after Rubio. Democrats' wins in Southern states in recent years have come against opponents with serious allegations that were impossible to come back from, such as the financial entanglements of Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue in Georgia or the sexual-misconduct allegations against Roy Moore in Alabama.Rubio isn't especially controversial and by numerous accounts gets along with his colleagues and staffers, who call him by his first name.And even with Trump, who now lives in Florida, Rubio has managed a balance: He comes across as neither a knee-jerk genuflector nor a scathing critic. Despite their turbulent history — including Rubio's descriptions of Trump as a "con artist" and his comment in 2016 that prompted Trump to defend the size of his genitalia — Rubio scored a coveted Trump endorsement a year ago."He has carved out a nice lane for himself to be independent while still being able to speak the language with MAGA, with the tea party, but still have his own brand of what he does," Adejumo said.To win, Demings can't rely on trashing Trump or tying Rubio to the former president — she must deliver a concise message about how she could improve voters' lives, Adejumo said."It can't be a message of 'He's the bogeyman,'" he said. "If that's the strategy, you might as well pack it up."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderMay 12th, 2022

The World Braces for Shortages and Higher Prices as Export Giant China Doubles Down on Its Zero-COVID Strategy

The lockdowns of Shanghai and other Chinese business hubs has experts warning of an impact to the global economy Two and a half weeks after extending a partial lockdown into a shutdown of the entire city, Shanghai shows few signs of easing its COVID-19 controls. On April 20, nearly half of the 25 million residents were able to go outdoors, albeit in limited fashion, as authorities declared the coronavirus to be under “effective control” in parts of China’s most populous city. But on April 22, many restrictions on movement were reinstated, causing confusion and frustration. Electronic alarms are reportedly being installed at the homes of people testing positive, to prevent them from leaving. Meanwhile, some areas are being evacuated for district-wide disinfection and mass transfers to quarantine centers are causing widespread disruption. Other residents, forced to isolate at home, are finding it difficult to source food and other essentials from overwhelmed delivery services. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] Official pronouncements underscore China’s determination to stick to its zero-COVID policy. That means that cities across the country will continue to face restrictions as authorities struggle to keep a lid on increasingly transmissible variants. As of April 19, more than half of China’s biggest cities were under some form of lockdown. Industrial cities and trading ports—including vital hubs like Changchun, Jilin, Shenyang, Tianjin, Shenzhen and Guangzhou—have shuttered businesses, imposed travel restrictions, or told residents to stay home. That’s causing concern about the impact on China’s domestic economy—and the global one. Read More: My Daughter Was Alone in the Hospital for 5 Days.’ Chinese Parents Protest Child Separation for COVID-19 “The already extensive disruptions to global supply chains are being exacerbated by the lockdowns in China, adding to inflationary pressures and difficulties in procuring a broad range of consumer goods,” says Eswar Prasad, a professor of economics and trade policy at Cornell University and the former head of the IMF’s China Division. China’s first-quarter GDP rose 4.8% according to data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics, but the bureau warned of economic headwinds. “We must be aware that with the domestic and international environment becoming increasingly complicated and uncertain, economic development is facing significant difficulties and challenges,” it said in a statement. HECTOR RETAMAL/AFP via Getty Images View of residential units during a Covid-19 coronavirus lockdown in the Jing’an district of Shanghai on April 21, 2022. How China’s lockdowns will affect the global economy In an April 21 speech, President Xi Jinping emphasized the resilience of China’s economy. He said the country offered “powerful momentum” for recovery from COVID-19 and minimized concerns about the economic impact of the extensive lockdowns, calling for better coordination between major economies to prevent “severe and negative” spillover effects. But China’s Premier Li Keqiang has issued several warnings about the risks to economic growth in recent weeks. The unemployment rate across 31 major Chinese cities also rose from 5.4% in February to 6% in March—the highest on record, according to official data going back to 2018. “China’s COVID restrictions are weighing heavily on its domestic demand, which has already been weak even before the recent Omicron outbreaks and lockdowns,” says Tommy Wu, a lead economist from Oxford Economics based in Hong Kong. Those same restrictions, he adds, are now “also affecting the country’s industrial production and export activity, which will amplify the ongoing global supply disruptions.” Richard Yu, a top Huawei executive, warned last week that China’s zero-COVID policy might trigger “massive losses” and hit the global supply chain. Read More: China’s Deepening Showdown With COVID-19 “If Shanghai cannot resume production by May, all of the tech and industrial players who have supply chains in the area will come to a complete halt, especially the automotive industry,” he said in a WeChat post. “That will pose severe consequences and massive losses for the whole industry.” He Xiaopeng, CEO of Electric vehicle company Xpeng, underscored the warning, saying that Chinese automakers may have to halt production in May. David Dollar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, says that while specific sectors such as autos will suffer, the hit to the global growth rate should not be too severe. As for inflation, “some specific products will continue to have price spikes,” he says, but “American consumers can look forward to inflation gradually tapering as the Fed tightens monetary policy.” However, Wu the economist cautions that there will likely be supply shortages of some consumer goods in the U.S. in the coming months: “Notably electronics, home appliances, and also apparel and garments to some extent.” In a report released this month, the IMF also said “Recent lockdowns in key manufacturing and trade hubs in China will likely compound supply disruptions elsewhere,” potentially adding to inflationary pressures. At Cornell, Prasad agrees. “The Chinese economy’s sheer size and its importance to global supply chains together imply that China’s zero-COVID policy is having ripple effects that touch every corner of the global economy,” he tells TIME......»»

Category: topSource: timeApr 22nd, 2022

$900 Monthly Stimulus Checks Coming To Transgender And Nonbinary Residents

More federal stimulus checks may not be coming, but states and counties are still sending targeted relief payments. The latest city to do so is California’s Palm Springs, where the city council recently approved a plan to send $900 monthly stimulus checks to some residents. Under the plan, the payment would specifically go to transgender […] More federal stimulus checks may not be coming, but states and counties are still sending targeted relief payments. The latest city to do so is California’s Palm Springs, where the city council recently approved a plan to send $900 monthly stimulus checks to some residents. Under the plan, the payment would specifically go to transgender and non-binary residents. .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more $900 Monthly Stimulus Checks: Who Will Get Them? Palm Springs has set aside $200,000 for a pilot program, which would give money to the recipients without any stipulations on how to spend it. This pilot program is basically a universal income project under which eligible residents would get $900 monthly stimulus checks for 18 months. As per the city officials, the money would only go to residents who meet a poverty threshold. Under the program, up to 20 transgender and non-binary Palm Springs residents would get $900 monthly stimulus checks. The plan was approved unanimously earlier this month. This universal basic income project will be funded by taxpayers and managed by the LGBT advocacy group Queer Works and health center DAP Health. “Our goal is to develop a model that impacts the greatest number of individuals possible. We hope our pilot will help confirm that guaranteed income is a cost-effective way to create positive outcomes,” David Brinkman, CEO of DAP Health, said in a press release. Though many believe the money to transgender and non-binary residents is well directed, some are of the opinion that such a program could backfire. Those against the program believe that such guaranteed or universal basic income programs eventually cause inflation and raise the cost of living. On the other hand, supporters of the plan say that such a project was necessary as transgender and non-binary suffer disproportionally from mental health and poverty issues. Many Cities Experimenting With Guaranteed Income Programs After federal stimulus checks dried up, several states and counties have come up with guaranteed income programs to help their residents. The city of Newark, New Jersey, for instance, has expanded its basic income program to 400 residents, giving a total of $12,000 over two years. Los Angeles has also come up with a new guaranteed income “Breathe” program. Under the program, eligible participants will get $1,000 a month for three years. The participants are free to spend the money on anything they want. Compton, California also has a guaranteed income program, called Compton Pledge. The duration of the program is December 2020 to December 2022, and it gives $1,800 every three months for 2 years to 800 participants. Stockton, California also experimented with a guaranteed income program called SEED (Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration). The plan was for two years, and it ended in February 2021. Under the plan, 125 participants got $500 every month for 2 years. Updated on Apr 20, 2022, 9:23 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkApr 20th, 2022

Goldman Trader: "The Past Few Weeks Have Poured Kerosene On A Tectonic Shift That"s Taken Shape Over The Past Six Years"

Goldman Trader: "The Past Few Weeks Have Poured Kerosene On A Tectonic Shift That's Taken Shape Over The Past Six Years" On the same day that Goldman's chief of US equity research David Kostin capitulated for the second time in the past month, and one month after cutting his year-end S&P price target from 5,100 to 4,900, the Goldman strategist followed up with another 200-point cut to his S&P price target after the close on Friday (he now expects the S&P to close the year at 4,700, i.e., down on the year) but even so Kostin is trying to spin this latest deterioration as a positive outcome, saying it represents a generous 10% "upside" from current levels. There was no positive spin, however, in the far more downbeat thoughts that Goldman's actual traders are sending out to their clients (trading desk research represents what Goldman actually believes, as opposed to the wholesale propaganda that emanates from sellside research). So for an honest glimpse of how Goldman's traders view what is the most unstable and chaotic market since March 2020, we excerpt from the latest note (available to pro subs in the usual place) written by Goldman's head of hedge fund sales, Tony Pasqsuariello, who has aptly dubbed what is taking place a... "paradigm shift." I’ve been banging away at this craft for 23 years, and the past few weeks rank right up there with some of the highest velocity periods for markets that I’ve ever seen. There are no mysteries here: global growth was slowing ... major policy shifts were underway ... then the geopolitical variable exploded. Given that setup, my risk framework starts with a concession to reality: the range of possible outcomes from here are exceptionally wide. Said another way: market dynamics were becoming significantly more complicated -- and, the degree of difficulty around money management was appreciably rising -- for several months in advance of the Russia/Ukraine situation, and that mess has opened the door to a set of potential tail risks that most folks never had to contemplate. So, amidst a period that’s featured epic volatility and risk transfer, my instinct is to approach the path ahead with a high degree of both humility and simplicity. Therefore, what follows from here is a stripped-down take on the core issues of the day: 1. The week began with a one-day, $1tr loss of US equity market cap and a very serious amount of portfolio de-leveraging. the middle of the week was a textbook illustration of why timing from the short-side must be impeccable. This week we confronted another scorching CPI report (e.g. the highest m/m increase in primary rent since ... 1987), a hawkish surprise from the ECB and ongoing headline ping-pong surrounding Eastern Europe. While that environment has generated some high quality, hyper-tactical opportunities along the way -- arguably well captured by the macro community -- it’s not for the faint of heart (and, it’s almost impossible to believe a not-so-distant year like 2017 saw a median daily market move of just 18bps, a max peak-to-trough drawdown of 2.8% and full-year realized volatility of 6%). 2. More broadly, and to borrow a thought experiment from a hot-handed client, consider this: in June of last year, just before Powell’s first pivot, S&P was trading around 4200. if you were told at that time ... come March of 2022 ... we’d be confronting $110 crude oil, 8% inflation and the invasion of a sovereign nation by a neighboring nuclear power ... would you guess that S&P would still be trading around 4200 (or, that NDX would still be up 100% from the lows of March 2020)? 3. While you can poke holes in that approach -- it ignores the rip higher that followed in H2’21, the S&P doesn’t represent the breadth of damage that’s actually taken place at the single stock level, look how crazy easy US real rates still are, on and on -- the point is more that we’re confronting a set of issues that are far more complicated than what I’d instinctively associate with a multiple that’s still in the 87th percentile of market history. it’s also not what I would associate with the immediate removal of a G-20 economy from the global financial system. 4. As noted before, the history of buying 10-20% drawdowns in the S&P when the economy is NOT headed towards a recession is very compelling. That said, I find that I’m starting to worry more about the accumulation of downside risks to growth, which again I admit is more of an instinct than anything more sophisticated. in this regard, I think we should all be keeping a close eye on the funding markets -- and, perhaps more importantly, the corporate credit markets -- for signs that something more significant is manifesting. 5. Relative to most every other major equity market, S&P has seemingly benefited from “repatriation” and offered an element of safe haven status over the recent period. in the doing, one could argue we’re forcing more and more capital into a smaller set of the highest quality US names (the likes of MSFT and AAPL, and dare I say TSCO and DLTR). while I sincerely believe those are the right places to allocate your equity capital, for the avoidance of doubt, the ante has been upped -- so, for the index to be ok, those names really, really need to hold the line. 6. If you take a really big step back, one can argue the past few weeks have poured kerosene on a tectonic shift that’s taken shape over the past six years: a push away from globalization and towards regionalization. in essence, we’re witnessing an inflection that is the photographic negative of the period that spanned from the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 to the Brexit vote in 2016. far be it from this English major to go too far with this line of deep thinking, but I think the trend is clear for all to see now ... it has only been amplified by the East/West geopolitical tension ... and, it marks a paradigm shift from the world I came up in. 7. Some superficial market thoughts follow from there, throw tomatoes at me if you wish: it argues for the increased consumption of commodities and affirms the underlying super cycle, link; it argues for a major retooling of the West’s power and defense complexes; it ultimately argues for more spending on alternative energy, while probably later in the sequence; it seems to strongly very argue for more inflation, higher wages and less corporate efficiency; it argues for more investment in technology, but in a two-sphere sense; from a growth and capital markets perspective, it argues for North America as it argues against China; more broadly, it argues for a schism between DM and EM markets.  on that last point, in the context of the UN General Assembly Resolution censoring of Russia, of the five BRICS countries, just one voted for it (Brazil) … three abstained … and (obviously) one voted against. 8. If this argument for regionalization is more or less directionally correct, it likely involves some hard truths -- some basic cause-and-effect -- for financial market participants: more fragility, more volatility, less liquidity.  I don’t think it’s an “all-bad” scenario, however, and the investing implications are immense.  while some of these recalibrations are clearly underway (witness price action HSCEI, which is back towards to lows of Lehman), I have to think this is a theme that’s here to stay.  and, I think it’s ultimately highly accretive to active managers and stock selection.  9. Much more locally -- and, at the risk of sounding too-clever-by-half -- I’m still of the view that S&P is range-bound with ongoing downside asymmetry.   therefore, I’d stick with the goal posts of buying below 4200 and selling over 4500.  next week is a huge one, featuring the FOMC on Wednesday and a major derivatives expiry on Friday (as ever, I’m respectful of quarterly expiries as markers of inflection points).  along the way, I tend to think the market goes into the next phase of the game with a very de-risked and de-levered trading community (the past week has seen immense volume and risk transfer, note GSTHHVIP now down 20% since November), while also featuring a retail investor who is full of risk and likely confronting a large capital gains tax bill next month.  where I’m going with this: the market is susceptible to more short-cycle squeezes, while the broader cut of positioning is still too long ... and, I worry my 4200/4500 tactical framework may be obscuring the bigger stories. 10. You don’t need me to tell you that the past few weeks have featured a set of extraordinary rallies in the commodities space. More broadly, on a 2-month lookback, we’ve just witnessed the biggest rally in commodity indices since ... the 1970s.  I mention this not because I’d expect those moves to necessarily extend in the short-term.  I say it because when you sit around the dinner table with a set of very senior risk takers, it’s hard NOT to conclude that most everything still points in the direction of a world that will be very, very commodity intensive. Even though last week’s statement on the relatively tiny size of commodities relative to both Equities and Fixed Income resulted in some spicy Twitter comments (“Nobel Prize material type of analysis, Tony”), I stand by the claim and think it’s inherently very bullish for the space. 11. I don’t know what to think of European equities right now, other than to say that my year-end optimism was perhaps the worst idea since Robin Ventura charged Nolan Ryan. To be clear, the recent period has featured some of the worst underperformance of SX5E relative to S&P in the post-GFC period -- that’s saying something -- and it’s hard to see how the European industrial sector doesn’t suffer.  that said, if stocks are to live in the future, one can see a path to major fiscal expansion -- and, more elementally, a much strong European Union (emphasis on Union).  which segues to this ... 12. Mark Wilson, GMD: “for the second time in as many years, Europe experienced its ‘Hamilton moment.’  ever since its founding, the fractured politics of the European ‘Union’ have been all too evident, perhaps best illustrated in numerous episodes of the last decade as the uneven financial consequences of the GFC roiled a still adolescent political construct.  yet, the unified strength of purpose shown by the European alliance in response to recent events is mightily impressive -- this time led by Germany, as she showed willingness to subjugate the gigantic cost of an increasingly expensive commodity burden to the broader political will of her allies.  Merkel’s recent departure may have emboldened Putin’s resolve to take his chosen course, given the presence of newer and (perceived) untested European leadership; yet, Germany’s metamorphic developments in response to this crisis have been dramatic: Schulz has overseen 3 seismic policy initiatives in shockingly short order – a historic expansion in re-armament spend, the cancelled certification of NordStream 2, and a radical new energy plan aimed at cutting dependence on Russian gas [this is even more radical when you consider this government includes the world’s strongest Green Party representation].   Ultimately, the unanimity & assumed political influence of the European Union has come of age in the last 2 weeks.” 13. worth clicking on: i. sticking with the focus on the low-end consumer :: link. ii. the economic impact of cyber, a theme that must only be gaining steam :: link.   iii. America the generous: link.   iv. no meetings before 11:00 am: link.   14. a chart of US financial conditions ... as I see it, clearly tightening, but still quite loose over the longer history: 15. and, now a chart of global financial conditions ... note the past month has seen the greatest rate-of-change since the GFC: 16. a basket of stocks leveraged to US growth ... vs those leveraged to non-US growth ... following from the prior points, you can probably guess where I’m going with this: 17. a GS custom basket of stocks with large buybacks vs the market.  Given this chart, it’s perhaps no surprise that Goldman research expects $1tr of actual repurchase in 2022 (link): 18. this is not a comforting chart ... the UN index of world food and agricultural prices: Full note available to professional subscribers Tyler Durden Sun, 03/13/2022 - 13:27.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytMar 13th, 2022

Goldman Cuts China"s Q3 GDP Growth To 0% As A Result Of Growing Energy Crisis

Goldman Cuts China's Q3 GDP Growth To 0% As A Result Of Growing Energy Crisis It's not just Europe that is suffering the mother of all commodity and energy price shocks: slowly but surely a similar fate is befalling China, where a perfect storm of increased regulation, extremely tight global energy supply, the escalating trade spat with Australia, surging coal prices and a crackdown on carbon has led to energy shortages first at factories and manufacturers and more recently, mass blackouts hitting tens of millions of residents in at least three Chinese provinces (as we discussed earlier). In our commentary to China's growing energy problem we said that "while the blackouts starting to hit household power usage are at most an inconvenience, if one which may soon result in even more civil unrest if these are not contained, a bigger worry is that the already snarled supply chains could get even more broken, leading to even greater supply-disruption driven inflation." But there's more than just supply chains: as Goldman's China strategist Hui Shan writes in a note published late on Monday, "the recent sharp cuts to production in a range of high-energy-intensity industries add to the already significant downside pressures in the growth outlook." While the Goldman strategist explains more in detail further, the production cuts are due primarily to increased regulatory pressure on provinces to meet energy use targets for 2021 but also reflect surging energy prices in some cases. He notes that the NDRC issued ratings in mid-August showing nine provinces as performing poorly based on H1 energy usage, and reportedly intensified its efforts to bring underperformers into line in mid-September. Based on the number of provinces (9 in NDRC ‘red’ classification) and share of industrial activity affected (Goldman estimates 44%), as well as informed assumptions about the extent of the cutbacks, the bank has estimated the hit to industrial production and overall economic activity for the remainder of the year. The bank's initial estimate is roughly a 1 percentage-point annualized hit to Q3 GDP growth and double this impact on Q4 growth. The bank then also adjusted its fiscal deficit estimates to reflect a smaller augmented deficit for 2021 (11.0%, vs 11.6% previously), accounted for by a lower deficit in the second half of the year: "This trims our growth assumption by about 25bp in Q3 and 50bp in Q4, given a relatively low multiplier and typical lags." Putting it all together, Goldman's new growth forecasts for Q3 shrink to flat, or 0% qoq (4.8% yoy), for Q4 to 6% qoq ann (3.2% yoy), and for 2021 as a whole to 7.8% (down from 5.1%, 4.1%, and 8.2% yoy previously.) Here, Goldman caveats that "considerable uncertainty" remains with respect to the fourth quarter, with both upside and downside risks relating principally to the government’s approach to managing the Evergrande stresses, the strictness of environmental target enforcement and the degree of policy easing. In short, how Beijing responds will impact the forecast. Regardless of said response, however, Goldman also takes down its 2022 GDP growth forecast to 5.5% yoy, well below China's new redline in the 6% range. * * * Elaborating further, Goldman writes that in recent weeks markets have been focused on developments with respect to Evergrande, its real estate development business, and risks to the broader Chinese property sector. The downward pressures on property sales and construction have added to a myriad of other headwinds for the economy including a relatively tight macro policy stance (epitomized by a balanced official fiscal budget in H1), Covid-related restrictions to counter local outbreaks, and regulatory tightening across a range of other sectors. To this, we can now add a "new but tightening" constraint on growth from increased regulatory pressure to meet environmental targets for energy consumption and energy intensity (the so-called “dual controls”). As part of the country’s longer-term goal to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030, policymakers formulated shorter term targets for 2021 in March’s Government Work Report – including a 3% reduction in energy intensity of GDP this year. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) monitors these at the provincial level on a quarterly basis. In August, it released a report classifying 9 provinces as category “red” – having missed their H1 targets, including Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi and Jiangsu (Exhibit 1). Another 10 provinces were classified as “yellow”. In mid-September, the NDRC published a plan for “dual controls” and was reported to pressure provinces that had lagged behind to curb energy use. Why did the energy use targets become binding so soon after being implemented? While it presumably was not the intention of policymakers to provoke a sharp tightening, at least when the goals were initially formulated, the peculiar nature of the Covid shock has made the economy more energy-intensive, at least temporarily. The boom in exports has boosted energy-intensive manufacturing industries (Exhibit 2), while Covid-related restrictions have primarily affected interaction-intensive service businesses. Meanwhile, efforts to reduce coal-fired related emissions and a reduction in coal imports have affected supply levels at least on the margin, contributing to the  sharp increase in prices discussed earlier. What follows below is Goldman's attempt to quantify the impact of these production cutbacks on growth in Q3 and Q4. First, quantifying the impact of energy-related production cuts. Given the uncertainty associated with the degree and duration of production cuts, Goldman has made a number of simplifying assumptions to size the impact on GDP. Exhibit 4 displays these assumptions and calculations. First, the bank categorizes affected regions by their 1H 21 energy control ratings given by the NDRC. For the nine provinces where the rating is red, the local governments need to aggressively reduce energy consumption to meet the year-end target and we assume the largest production cuts in those provinces. This means even more pain is coming. Second, Goldman divides industries by their energy intensity. For ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals and non-metal mineral products, the NDRC labels them as “high energy intensity” sectors and they are also cited most frequently in the news related to the latest power cuts (see here for example). Therefore, the bank assumes the sharpest production cuts (20-40%) in these three industries. Petroleum, coking & nuclear fuel and chemical material & product are also labeled as “high energy intensity” sectors, and are likely to suffer medium levels of production cuts (10-20%). Mining, textile, paper making, chemical fiber and rubber & plastic product require significant energy inputs and have been quoted in news articles as well. Goldman assumes 5-10% of production cuts depending on the province for these industries. Altogether, Goldman expects the 10 days of production cuts at the end of September to reduce real GDP growth by nearly one percentage point (annualized) in Q3. The rightmost column in Exhibit 4 shows the hit to the level of GDP in Q3 for each set of industries; these sum to 23bp, and given this is a quarter-on-quarter change, the annualized change is slightly less than one percentage point (92bp). Assuming the production cuts continue in Q4 and affect 10 days per month, they would reduce Q4 real GDP growth by about 1.8% sequentially. Here, Goldman hands out the usual caveats: namely that there is a great deal of uncertainty in our estimates. On the one hand, the bank assumes no places outside of the red and yellow provinces and no industries beyond the 10 industries mentioned above are affected, which will likely underestimate the actual production impact. On the other hand, affected companies may resort to shifting maintenance timing in response to power cuts and production may increase in provinces with non-binding energy caps, leading to less damage to overall growth. Cutting fiscal deficit forecast After Chinese authorities quickly unwound the macro policy easing deployed in the first half of 2020, credit growth decelerated, excess liquidity was drained, and the fiscal deficit declined. In fact, fiscal policy normalized so quickly that the country ran an official deficit of zero in the first half of the year. Goldman had expected some reduction in the overall fiscal deficit, but the tighter-than-expected H1 caused the bank to revise its deficit estimate for 2021 lower. While there has been some fiscal easing in July and August, this partly reflects typical seasonal patterns and the deficit is tracking below these downwardly-revised estimates. Significant off-budget elements of the augmented deficit including policy bank lending, trust lending, and land sales are tracking below the bank's forecasts, and the latter in particular seems likely to continue to underperform given the ongoing property market tightening and failed land auctions seen in recent months. On the other hand, local government special bond issuance has accelerated somewhat but remains below the pace needed to fully utilize this year’s quota. Therefore, Goldman is revising a second time, and moving its forecast for the full-year augmented deficit to 11.0% from 11.6% previously. Adjusting the new second-half deficit forecasts 1.2% lower and applying a multiplier of 0.2 (as well as a modest lag to some spending), Goldman now estimates an impact on qoq annualized growth of roughly -1/4pp in Q3 and -1/2pp in Q4. The new GDP growth forecasts Combining these new estimates for the impact of supply-side cuts to energy-intensive production and slightly less support from fiscal policy, Goldman cuts its growth forecasts for: Q3 to 0% (qoq annualized), from +1.3% previously, Q4 to 6.0% annualized, from 8.5% previously. As a result, Goldman's year-over-year forecasts are now just 4.8% for Q3, 3.2% for Q4, and 7.8% for 2021 as a whole. Finally, the lower starting point for early 2022 activity pulls the growth forecast for that year down one tenth, to 5.5%, despite modestly stronger sequential growth as restrictions become less binding and policy eases. Uncertainties and policy response While the third quarter is nearly over, uncertainty around the Q4 pace remains very large, and a lot of this comes down to the stance of both macro and regulatory policy, i.e., Beijing's reponse. Key drivers of the Q4 outcome will include the timing and extent of: government measures to stabilize housing sector activity and stretch out the deleveraging in the property sector, any temporary relaxation of regulatory pressures to meet energy use targets, and/or macro policy support. Each of these factors could materialize on either the positive or negative side relative to these new reduced growth forecasts. Tyler Durden Mon, 09/27/2021 - 19:04.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 27th, 2021

Amerisafe (AMSF) Up 2.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Amerisafe (AMSF) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues. It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Amerisafe (AMSF). Shares have added about 2.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Amerisafe due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.AMERISAFE's Q1 Earnings Beat on Lower CostsAMERISAFE reported first-quarter 2022 earnings per share of 82 cents, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 34.4%. The bottom line improved nearly 8% year over year. The company's results were driven by reduced expenses and better underwriting profits. However, the upside was partly offset by a year-over-year decline in revenues coupled with a lower fee and other income.Q1 UpdateOperating revenues of AMERISAFE were $74 million, which slipped 5.1% year over year due to a 4.5% and 7.1% decline in net premiums earned and net investment income, respectively. However, the top line beat the consensus mark by 2.5%.Net premiums earned declined 4.5% year over year to $67.6 in the first quarter. Meanwhile, net investment income of $6.1 million tumbled 7.1% year over year due to reduced investment yields on fixed-income securities. Fee and other income plunged 41.1% year over year.AMERISAFE reported a pre-tax underwriting profit of $13.5 million in the first quarter, which climbed 23.8% year over year.Total expenses decreased 9.4% year over year to $54.1 million on account of lower loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred coupled with reduced underwriting and other operating costs.Net combined ratio of 80.1% improved 450 basis points (bps) year over year in the quarter under review.Financial Update (as of Mar 31, 2022)Cash and cash equivalents of AMERISAFE amounted to $30.7 million, which plunged 56.5% from the figure at the 2021-end.Total assets of $1.4 billion dipped 0.8% from the 2021-end level.Shareholders' equity slipped 1% from the 2021-end figure to $395.3 million.Net cash provided by operating activities totaled $7.1 million, down 57.1% year over year.Book value per share of $20.46 declined 11.7% year over year. Return on average equity came in at 17.4% for the first quarter.Share Repurchases and Dividend UpdateAMERISAFE bought back shares worth $2.1 million in the first quarter. As of Apr 25, 2022, it had $22.9 million left under the authorized share buyback program.On Apr 26, 2022, its board of directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of 31 cents per share. The dividend will be paid on Jun 24, 2022, to shareholders of record as of Jun 17.Net Investment Income Outlook UnveiledManagement disclosed its view of net investment income, which witnessed a plunge in the first quarter of 2022 but fared little higher than the third and fourth quarters of 2021. The metric is likely to continue to suffer in the second quarter of 2022. Ushering in hope, management anticipates improvement in net investment income growth during the third and fourth quarter of 2022. How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.VGM ScoresAt this time, Amerisafe has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Amerisafe has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months. Just Released: The Biggest Tech IPOs of 2022 For a limited time, Zacks is revealing the most anticipated tech IPOs expected to launch this year. Concerns about Federal interest rates and inflation caused many private companies to stay on the bench- leading to companies with better brand recognition and higher growth rates getting into the game. With the strength of our economy and record amounts of cash flooding into IPOs, you don’t want to miss this opportunity. See the complete list today.>>See Zacks Hottest IPOs NowWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks6 hr. 40 min. ago

Exxon Mobil vs. Chevron: Which Company Looks Like a Better Buy?

Both companies have undoubtedly enjoyed a stellar run throughout 2022, and picking between the two is no easy choice. It’s no secret that the market has been rough sailing so far throughout 2022, with investors taking hit after hit. However, today and yesterday's strong price action seems very promising when looking forward.We have all become too familiar with the rough macroeconomic situation we’ve found ourselves in coming out of a once-in-a-lifetime type of pandemic. Inflation has soared, supply chains have been disrupted, and energy costs have shot through the roof.However, there have been a few bright sectors throughout the year. One such example is the Zacks Oil and Energy Sector, which currently ranks #1 out of all 16 sectors.The table below shows the sector’s performance in several different timeframes.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchTwo companies that operate within the sector include Exxon Mobil XOM and Chevron CVX. Being two of the top oil giants raises a valid question: Which company deserves your hard-earned cash more?Let’s take a look at valuation levels, forecasted bottom and top-line growth estimates, and dividend metrics to get a more precise answer.Exxon Mobil Exxon Mobil XOM shares have been blistering hot year-to-date, providing investors with a massive 63% return and easily outperforming the S&P 500’s decline of 15%. Shares have been on a strong uptrend all year.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchXOM currently has a forward price-to-sales ratio of 1.1X, which is just a tick above its median of 1.0X over the last five years but is notably below 2018 highs of 1.4X. Additionally, the value represents a steep 75% discount relative to the S&P 500’s forward price-to-sales ratio of 4.1X.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchAnalysts have been rapidly revising their earnings estimates across the board over the last 60 days. For the upcoming quarter, the $2.76 EPS estimate reflects a sizable triple-digit growth in earnings of 150% from the year-ago quarter.Furthermore, the Zacks Consensus Estimate Trend has climbed extensively up to $10.17 per share for the current fiscal year, displaying a substantial 90% increase in the bottom-line year-over-year. Looking forward a bit further, the $8.81 EPS estimate for FY23 has the bottom-line shrinking a concerning 14% when compared to FY22.Additionally, the bottom-line is expected to expand by a notable 21% over the next three to five years.For FY22, the Zacks Consensus Sales Estimate sits at $360 billion, notching an increase in the top line of a sizable 26%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchXOM’s annual dividend yield sits at 3.09%, with a payout ratio sitting at 52% of earnings, which could be seen as unsustainable. However, Exxon Mobil has raised its dividend three times out of the past five years, providing a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of a strong 3.09%.XOM is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) with an overall VGM Score of an A.ChevronChevron CVX shares have been scorching hot as well year-to-date, providing a stellar return of 55% that puts the S&P 500’s performance to shame.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe oil giant’s forward price-to-sales ratio sits at 1.6X, which is slightly below its high of 1.9X in 2020 and is slightly above its median of 1.5X over the last five years. Additionally, the vale represents a substantial 63% discount relative to the S&P 500’s forward price-to-sales ratio.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchOver the last 60 days, analysts have been upwardly revising their earnings outlook across the board. The $4.65 EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter reflects a massive triple-digit growth in earnings of 171% compared to the year-ago quarter.For FY22, the Zacks Consensus Estimate Trend has climbed 32%, displaying a surge in earnings growth in the triple-digits of 108% year-over-year. However, for FY23, the $15.00 per share earnings estimate represents the bottom-line decreasing by 11.5% year-over-year.Additionally, earnings are forecasted to grow by 12% over the next three to five years.Looking at revenue forecasts, the $218 billion estimate for FY22 sales displays a sizable 35% expansion in the top line from FY21.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFor investors looking for a stream of income, CVX has that covered with its 3.22% annual dividend yield with a payout ratio sitting at 54% of earnings. Over the last five years, Chevron has increased its dividend five times; the five-year annualized dividend growth rate sits at a notable 5.9%.  CVX is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with an overall VGM Score of an A.Bottom LineBoth companies have undoubtedly enjoyed a stellar run throughout 2022, and picking between the two is no easy choice.In times of overall market weakness, investors need to have the ability to pivot to sectors that are performing relatively well, such as the Zacks Oil and Energy Sector.Investors within this sector have enjoyed a multitude of gains, undoubtedly limiting drawdowns in other portfolio positions.When it comes down to it, I believe that XOM would be a better play over CVX, and there are a few reasons why.XOM displays more attractive valuation levels, has a much higher forecasted long-term earnings growth rate, and, most importantly, currently has a higher Zacks Rank than CVX. Just Released: The Biggest Tech IPOs of 2022 For a limited time, Zacks is revealing the most anticipated tech IPOs expected to launch this year. Concerns about Federal interest rates and inflation caused many private companies to stay on the bench- leading to companies with better brand recognition and higher growth rates getting into the game. With the strength of our economy and record amounts of cash flooding into IPOs, you don’t want to miss this opportunity. See the complete list today.>>See Zacks Hottest IPOs NowWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Chevron Corporation (CVX): Free Stock Analysis Report Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacks6 hr. 40 min. ago

Back To Winning Ways

Another positive session in equity markets as bargain hunters are tempted back in to cap off the first winning week in eight in the US. It’s been a rough ride and despite this week’s performance, there could still be more pain to come. But at these levels, it’s only natural that the vultures are circling. […] Another positive session in equity markets as bargain hunters are tempted back in to cap off the first winning week in eight in the US. It’s been a rough ride and despite this week’s performance, there could still be more pain to come. But at these levels, it’s only natural that the vultures are circling. There isn’t a huge amount to be excited about on inflation, interest rates and the economy but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value out there. .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The US inflation, income and spending data today was a mixed bag. Income fell short of expectations while households maintained strong spending thanks to excess pandemic savings. That can be sustained for some time but whether it will is another thing. People don't mind digging into savings as a short-term measure but at some point, they'll either stop or demand higher wages. Either way, the economy will suffer. The inflation data was a slight positive, with the core PCE price index slipping to 4.9% and the headline 6.3% - a larger drop than expected. While encouraging, there's still a lot further to go which means plenty more rate hikes. Oil Higher Ahead Of OPEC+ Meeting Oil prices have steadily moved higher this week as Shanghai has eased restrictions and the EU has worked towards an embargo on Russian crude. The OPEC+ meeting is the key event to watch next week but even if we get a commitment to increase targets - which is unlikely - that will only likely increase the amount to which they’ll fall short of them. The group is unlikely to take any heat out of the market for the foreseeable future. Gold Holds Above $1,850 Gold has recaptured $1,850 this week as the dollar has continued to give back some of the huge gains from the last couple of months. The yellow metal has consolidated between $1,840 and $1,870 this week but further gains could be on the cards unless the dollar finds form once more and yields start rising again. Economic gloom has aided the recent moves and there’s little reason to expect that will change. A Worrying Sign For Bitcoin? Bitcoin remains in consolidation as it has for the last couple of weeks. It is edging lower into the end of the week though which could be a worrying sign given its inability to generate any upside momentum above $30,000. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/ Article By Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA Updated on May 27, 2022, 1:56 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalk12 hr. 12 min. ago

Residents In These Two States To Get Stimulus Checks In June

Federal stimulus checks aren’t coming, but states are continuing to send targeted relief. At least two states will be sending stimulus checks in June to eligible residents. These two states are Maine and New Mexico, and they are primarily sending stimulus checks to help residents offset some of the impacts of inflation. Maine Residents To […] Federal stimulus checks aren’t coming, but states are continuing to send targeted relief. At least two states will be sending stimulus checks in June to eligible residents. These two states are Maine and New Mexico, and they are primarily sending stimulus checks to help residents offset some of the impacts of inflation. Maine Residents To Get Stimulus Checks In June An estimated 858,000 people in Maine will get relief checks of $850 (Couples filing jointly will get $1,700). To be eligible for the stimulus checks, individuals must have filed their income tax returns by October 31. Moreover, they must not be claimed as a dependent by someone else on their tax return. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more According to the governor’s office, the money will go to the residents “grappling with the increased costs as a result of pandemic-driven inflation.” Also, tax filers need to be full-time Maine residents and have a federal adjusted gross income (FAGI) of less than $100,000 for single filers (or married and filing separately), or $150,000 for those filing as head of household, or $200,000 for couples filing jointly. The first round of payments is to be mailed out as early as next month. The payments will continue to roll out through the end of the year as taxpayers file their returns. For more details on the stimulus checks, including eligibility requirements, visit Maine.gov/reliefchecks. Sending stimulus checks will cost the state about $729 million, and it is part of the $1.2 billion supplemental budget that Governor Janet Mills signed into law in April. Recipients will be free to spend the money on anything they want. New Mexico Also Sending Payments In June New Mexico will also be sending out payments next month. The state Legislature has approved tax rebates of up to $500 for single filers (and married individuals filing separately), and $1,000 for joint filers, heads of households and surviving spouses. Eligible single filers will get a payment of $250 each in June and August, while joint filers will receive $500 each month. These payments will be sent automatically to the taxpayers who have filed their 2021 returns by May 31. New Mexico also approved a tax rebate that will send $250 ($500 for joint filers) to taxpayers with income less than $75,000 annually (under $150,000 for joint filers). This rebate will go out in July and will be sent automatically to the taxpayers who filed a 2021 state return. "This summer we'll be returning hundreds of millions of dollars in relief to families around New Mexico, protecting their paychecks and helping them cope with the rising prices of gas, groceries and other household expenses," Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham said in a statement. If we consider both of the tax rebates, a taxpayer with an annual income of less than $75,000 could qualify for $750. Updated on May 27, 2022, 9:42 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalk15 hr. 25 min. ago

Is it Wise to Retain UDR Stock in Your Portfolio Right Now?

UDR is well-poised to capitalize on its diversified portfolio, technological advancements and a strong balance sheet. However, rising supply volumes and huge development pipeline costs are concerns. UDR, Inc. UDR, one of the most favorably-positioned multi-family apartment real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the United States, is set to benefit from its superior quality mix of A/B properties in both coastal and Sunbelt markets. Technological advancements and process enhancements also continue to aid the company’s growth curve.Maintaining a diversified portfolio has been shielding the company from volatility and concentration risks, thus enabling it to generate steady operating cash flows. Moreover, suburban demand driven by favorable migration trends is likely to outpace occupancy, new lease rate growth, renewal rate growth and traffic compared with the urban communities in the future, thereby strengthening UDR’s financials.UDR’s technological investments and process enhancements are expected to help control future expenses and aid margin expansion and long-term profitability. The company’s Next Generation Operating Platform supports electronical interaction, provides service to residents and aids its business prospects. These efforts are likely to give the company a competitive edge over its peers.On the liquidity front, the company maintains disciplined capital allocation, sustained cash flows and an investment-grade balance sheet to support operational efficiency and dividend growth. It had $1.7 billion of liquidity through a combination of cash and undrawn capacity under its credit facilities as of Mar 31, 2022, and no consolidated maturities until 2024. Also, its credit-worthy ratings reduce its debt financing costs and lower the weighted average interest rate on debt.UDR has consistently paid dividends, which remains a huge attraction for REIT investors. In March 2022, the residential REIT announced a hike in its annualized dividend by 4.7% to $1.52 per share. Considering its robust balance sheet position and a sustainable cash flow from operations, the company is likely to maintain its dividend payout in the forthcoming quarters.Analysts seem to be bullish on this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock. The estimate revisions trend for 2022 funds from operations (FFO) per share indicates a favorable outlook for the company as it has been increased 0.9% over the past month to $2.30. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.However, with rising supply volumes and a huge outlay of ongoing construction, acquiring renters for these properties could pose a challenge for UDR.Although the allocation of capital for development programs aids the company’s long-term growth, a huge cost outlay of $689 million (at the end of first-quarter 2022) for its development pipeline could increase its exposure to operational risks like rising construction costs, entitlement delays, lease-up risks and funding risks.Regulatory restrictions on renewal rate growth and fees on favorable terms along with elongated eviction or prohibited process could add to the company’s woes.Shares of UDR have lost 13.3% in the past three months compared with the industry’s fall of 9.3%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchStocks to ConsiderSome better-ranked stocks in the REIT sector are American Campus Communities ACC, Independence Realty Trust IRT and BRT Apartments BRT.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for American Campus Communities’ 2022 FFO per share has moved 0.8% upward in the past two months to $2.47. ACC presently carries a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy).The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Independence Realty Trust’s current-year FFO per share has moved roughly 1% northward in the past month to $1.05. IRT also carries a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BRT Apartments’ ongoing year’s FFO per share has been raised 18.5% over the past month to $1.54. BRT carries a Zacks Rank #1, currently.Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represent funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs. Just Released: The Biggest Tech IPOs of 2022 For a limited time, Zacks is revealing the most anticipated tech IPOs expected to launch this year. Concerns about Federal interest rates and inflation caused many private companies to stay on the bench- leading to companies with better brand recognition and higher growth rates getting into the game. With the strength of our economy and record amounts of cash flooding into IPOs, you don’t want to miss this opportunity. See the complete list today.>>See Zacks Hottest IPOs NowWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc. (UDR): Free Stock Analysis Report American Campus Communities Inc (ACC): Free Stock Analysis Report BRT Apartments Corp. (BRT): Free Stock Analysis Report Independence Realty Trust, Inc. (IRT): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacks15 hr. 57 min. ago

Foreclosure-Wave Sweeping US Crests In Chicago

Foreclosure-Wave Sweeping US Crests In Chicago By Dave Byrnes of Courthouse News Service A report released in April by real estate data aggregator ATTOM has bestowed Chicago with a dubious honor. Amid a national surge in residential foreclosure rates, Chicagoans are currently losing their homes in greater numbers than in any other metro area in the country. “A total of 50,759 U.S. properties started the foreclosure process in Q1 2022, up 67% from the previous quarter and up 188% from a year ago,” the report stated, with Chicago alone seeing over 3,000 foreclosures in the first three months of the year. If you interpret the numbers as a per housing unit rate, Cleveland manages to pull ahead of Chicago with almost one in every 500 homes foreclosed since the start of 2022. But by the same metric, Illinois still leads the nation on a state level – close to one out of every 800 homes. California, as the country’s most populous state, wins out as the state with the highest raw numbers of foreclosed homes this year. More than 5,300 households in the Golden State had begun the foreclosure process as of April. As shocking as this spike in home loss is, experts said it was predictable – the inevitable result of the end of the pandemic eviction moratorium. Enacted by Congress in March 2020 under former President Donald Trump and struck down in August 2021 by a supreme court ruling under current President Joe Biden, it was a national exercise in decommodified housing that staved off homelessness for an estimated 1.5 million Americans. But now it’s over. “In great part, this is the fault of the lifting of the moratorium,” said Ken Johnson, the dean of graduate studies at Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business. “It’s not 100% to blame, there’s always a natural rate of foreclosure, but it is a major factor.” “It’s the moratorium lifting,” agreed professor Marie Reilly of Penn State University, who specializes in bankruptcy law. “During the moratorium people weren’t eligible for mortgage mitigation… now we’re seeing the market respond to that.” While agreeing on the general cause of the foreclosure wave, the pair offered differing explanations as to the granular mechanisms driving it. Reilly suggested that it may be the result of the Federal Reserve interest rate, the rate at which the Federal Open Market Committee suggests commercial banks borrow and lend money to each other. When the rate is low, consumers can get lower rates on credit cards, loans and adjustable-rate mortgages. But at the moment it’s rising, from around 0.25% in March 2020 to around 0.75% – 1% as of this May. The increasing figure reflects the 40-year high in inflation the U.S. is currently experiencing, and makes it hard for property owners without much capital to hold on to their unprofitable buildings. As the U.S. working class struggles to make ends meet, their economic hardship trickles up to the rest of society – including their landlords. “The other thing that could be affecting [the foreclosure rate] is the Federal Reserve interest rate,” Reilly said. “It could be making it harder for landlords to hold on to non-rent-paying properties.” As small landlords shed these properties, Reilly explained, larger development firms will often come in to buy them up on the cheap – sometimes with the blessings of municipalities looking to avoid the crime that comes with abandoned or vacant buildings. While large firms buying up property staves off that immediate concern, the result is usually an increase in rent or home ownership costs in the area, further driving out residents who cannot afford the rising prices. It’s the economic foundations of gentrification. “Vacant properties are not good for anyone,” Reilly said. “And it’s not always easy to tell if its a resident who’s going to be dispossessed, or if it’s a remote investor who’s just abandoning the property.” Johnson offered another view. He suggested that there simply weren’t enough homes, particularly affordable homes, in many areas of the country. The cancellation of the moratorium only exacerbated the problem. “There is a huge inventory shortage,” Johnson said. “That’s the total number of [housing] units.” Figures from the Pew Research Center corroborate this. There were an average of 1.5 million monthly active home listings in the U.S. in October 2016, while in January 2022 there only about 409,000. During the same time period the median cost of a home in the U.S. rose from a little over $300,000 to over $400,000. Renters fare little better, with the national average cost of rent rising by 18% since 2017, more so in metro areas. The rent market research site Apartment List estimated that the average apartment in Chicago alone was 11% more expensive in April 2022 compared to April 2021. “There’s just not enough roofs to live under,” Johnson said. This assertion is sometimes challenged by analysts on the left, who point out that as of 2020 there were some 16 million vacant homes in the U.S., compared to a homeless population that hovers around 550,000. But Johnson called this a red herring. If someone on the East Coast has their home foreclosed, he said, it wouldn’t much matter to them that there is a surplus of housing in a town on the West Coast. Additionally, the number of homes affordable to people making less than 50% of area’s median income accounts for only about 35% of the nation’s housing stock, and state-subsidized public housing accounts for less than 1%. Some large metro areas such as Los Angeles and Chicago even have a history of destroying their public and affordable housing stock, such as when the Chicago Housing Authority infamously began tearing down the Cabrini-Green public housing project in 2000 under the direction of then-Mayor Richard M. Daley. All this means that even if many homes are technically available, they likely won’t be held at a price that a recent foreclosee can afford. The cold comfort both experts offered is that the current foreclosure crisis is not as intense as that experienced by the nation during the 2008 Great Recession. Reilly called the 2008 crisis a “seize-up” of the market, one she said we’re “nowhere close” to. Johnson said that while the current crisis stems from an under-supply of housing, the 2008 crisis was caused by the speculative bubble bursting on an over-supply of single-family housing. “There may be places that are hit hard based on population changes, but… it’s a matter of under-supply vs. over-supply,” he said. Neither expert had concrete ideas on how to solve the current crisis. Reilly urged anyone facing foreclosure to file for Chapter 13 bankruptcy, if they could, while Johnson suggested this wasn’t a problem that can be fully solved by market manipulation. A 2020 collection of analyses by the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs vehemently agreed. It arrived at the conclusion that the only solution to the foreclosure and housing crisis was housing decommodification. It suggested a strategy that instead prioritized state and community-owned homes that were not subject to profit speculation. “To have a roof over our heads is essential in human development, but this is threatened when housing is a way to make profits in communities whose market values increase and attract the attention of corporate investors,” one of the analyses in the collection argued. Back in Chicago, the city government on Friday announced a much more capitalist-friendly initiative to combat its nation-leading foreclosure spike. Mayor Lori Lightfoot, along with Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa – her frequent critic from the left – officially opened the Emmett Street Apartments in the city’s mixed-income Logan Square community. All of the 100 apartment units in the building will be made affordable to people making at or below 60% of the city’s area median income, while half will be reserved as public housing units. “I am excited that after years of community organizing and struggle, we are finally cutting the ribbon on a beautiful building that will house 100 working families in the heart of Logan Square,” Ramirez-Rosa said in a prepared statement.  However one thinks the housing crisis should be handled, there’s a catch to the whole situation. Despite the current foreclosure rate being the highest since the pandemic began, it is still lower than the average pre-pandemic foreclosure rate – only about half as many foreclosures were initiated in the first quarter of 2022 as were begun in the first quarter of 2020. ATTOM’s researchers predicted we would eventually see a return to “historically normal” foreclosure levels, perhaps as soon as the end of the year. “It’s likely that we’ll continue to see significant month-over-month and year-over-year growth through the second quarter of 2022, but still won’t reach historically normal levels of foreclosures until the end of the year at the earliest, unless the U.S. economy takes a significant turn for the worse,” the report states. In other news, Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf told the Washington Post earlier this week there was “no question” that the U.S. economy is headed for a dive. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/26/2022 - 09:04.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytMay 26th, 2022

What Chance Governments & Central Banks Will Still Save Markets?

What Chance Governments & Central Banks Will Still Save Markets? Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com, “When you go looking for rescue, you end up trapped in your own weakness…” The outlook for markets remains dire.. no worries! But what chance governments, central banks, the economy and growth enablers suddenly turn up the good news and put it all right again…? Are we over-estimating stagflation and recession? We had an interesting debate in the office yesterday – while markets stumble and flaff-up-and-down in a continuing downwards spiral on the multiple threats now assailing them, what chance the negativity suddenly reverses and there are reasons to be cheerful again? 3 issues to think about: Politics and Central Banks Trade War Politics One of the most astute observations in politics was the Bill Clinton slogan “It’s the economy, stupid”. One phrase successfully turned around George Bush’s massive post 1990 Gulf-War approval rating as the US economy stalled ahead of the 1992 elections. Next year will see the 2024 election cycle heat up in both the US and UK. What chance governments, with the connivance of supposedly “independent” central banks, decide their only hope of hanging on is to reverse the negative economic nihilism around them, and start juicing economic activity with yet more spending, tax-cuts, handouts and pushing for lower rates and a resumption of QE? To have any effect, it will likely happen sooner rather than later.. The inflation hawks and monetary hardliners will scream… but… You can just imagine the scene in No 10 Downing Street as Boris chokes on the latest polls (showing the Tories at German bond yield numbers) and determines it’s time to spend and bluster his way to victory. You can just picture it – declaring a national economic emergency, huge spending programmes to hold red wall seats boost growth, tax cuts, student debt forgiveness, assassination of key* liberal democrats tax handouts and new democratic Nimby development powers in affluent Southern seats (oh, they doing that already)… and pressure on The Bank of England to do as they are damn-well told to support the programme… Boris will know it’s an election he may well lose – his only upside being the Labour Party’s ongoing inability to win. (Which is why I may well choose a full-frontal lobotomy in order to vote Liberal Democrat.) Less of a problem in the US. If the US economy was drowning, the Republican’s would call a vote to veto the use of lifebelts. Their strategy remains one of encouraging the economy to destroy itself in order they can save it when elected, only to find themselves on the end of the same stick. The opposition Democrats will deny them sticking plasters to treat the gaping flesh wounds inflicted on the economy. Oh, and some senator from God-cares-where will stop everything in order to milk a few more dollars of subsidy for his particular interest… US checks and balances.. the greatest political system ever. If nothing happens.. what can possibly go wrong? The gridlock of the US political not-process and its general ineffectiveness may be a primary reason Jamie Dimon, CEO for Life of JP Morgan, is one the wires reminding us the US economy is strong, robust, and able to weather the storm clouds of recession. Sure, it will suffer from inflation and quantitative tightening as rates rise – but nothing to worry about.. move along there, nothing to see, says the head of one of the largest US banks which is pretty much dependent on there not being a devasting recession.. (Just an observation… ) Yet, one of the things I repeatedly here from traders is the hope (described as an expectation) central banks will be forced resume accommodative monetary policy as the multiple crises deepen…. After all, they argue International Central Banking Rescue has saved the global economy on multiple occasions since Ben Bernanke, Mervyn King and Jean-Claude Trichet  set up a save-the-world trading floor under the swimming pool on that deserted tropical island with a rocket launcher in the volcano to drop helicopter money wherever required on the global economy…. Sorry to disappoint you all, but I suspect Thunderbirds are most definitely not Go this time.  The long-term consequences of too much liquidity are now being felt in terms of underinvestment, declining productivity, income inequality and speculative bubbles (these are all topics and causalities I’ve covered multiple times in the Morning Porridge). Central Bankers know they have the super-power to rescue and save economies, but if they keep applying the accelerator, as has been the case, then the effects become pernicious and create more distortion than benefit. At some point it has to stop – say about 12 years ago. After saving the world in 2008, it might have been a better thing to let the normal business cycle resume in 2010. Trade The expected reopening of Shanghai next month will paradoxically trigger fresh waves of supply chain instability as Chinese ports fully reopen. It will take months for logistics in terms of shipping, containers, lorries and orders to re-align and be put back in place. It’s not the overnight switch on/off process some economic observers assume it is. It means months longer for supply shortage to ease, and years of crisis for major western firms, like Apple yesterday, considering where to broaden their production bases. The cost of goods is bound to further rise as supply chains generate scarcity, and that will continue to fuel wage demand expectations, further destablishing economies as workers demand more as they see other workers getting larger settlements. And then there is the geopolitical issue – which rather depends on how much China wishes to re-engage with the West. Aligning itself with the military ineptitude of Russia has been an embarrassment, but one that has thus far cost them little – thus far. It’s spurred the West into a frenzy of rearmament and common-purpose. Biden’s “slip of the tongue” about military intervention if Taiwan were to be invaded is bound to have set Xi’s minions thinking… The probability of a more isolationist US economy from 2025 and ongoing posturing across the Asia/Pacific sphere is high. It’s going to further change the global trade focus and continue to de-emphasise ongoing globalisation. That means the return of an inflationary push as the West trying to re-establish manufacturing businesses. All it will take is a US politician ending every speech with Carthago Delenda Est to make a bad situation worse.. War While China and US face off and decide whether to engage (positively or negatively), the situation is Europe will remain fraught. The Ukraine Energy and Food inflation shocks have been just that… shocks. But they will not be temporary. It will take years to build new infrastructure and redefine energy policies and supply across Europe, spelling a long-term business block. There will also be significant political consequences. These are already set in motion. Wheat shortages and higher food prices in North Africa may well trigger renewed social upheaval, and trigger a new refugee crisis for Europe, and empower Turkey to demand yet more unreasonable gains. In short, things get trickier rather than better. The upside for Europe is the realisation they are strong together and have little to fear from Russia. The downside for Europe will be the realisation its political and economic structures – the EU and ECB – remain constructs designed without democracy or any particular path towards it in mind. Trying to adapt these and move forward in a period of high economic tension.. well that will be tricky.  Perversely.. if thing were to get tougher, then that could we precipitate a positive unity surprise in Europe! The question was – is it likely things get suddenly better and easier? No. Things remain tricky – but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Taking some of the ongoing stupidity out the market and removing the fluff will be a positive long-term. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/26/2022 - 06:30.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytMay 26th, 2022

The Chance Of A Recession Is 40%

In his Daily Market Notes report to investors, while commenting on a recession, Louis Navellier wrote:   Recession or Recovery? My favorite economist, Ed Yardeni, is now estimating that the chance of a recession is 40%.  Specifically, Yardeni cited that (1) investors are in a foul mood, (2) consumer sentiment has dropped sharply, (3) regional […] In his Daily Market Notes report to investors, while commenting on a recession, Louis Navellier wrote:   Recession or Recovery? My favorite economist, Ed Yardeni, is now estimating that the chance of a recession is 40%.  Specifically, Yardeni cited that (1) investors are in a foul mood, (2) consumer sentiment has dropped sharply, (3) regional business surveys are depressed, (4) consumers are losing purchasing power and (5) there is a chance of a credit crunch. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more After pointing out these five factors increasing the odds of a recession, Yardeni then pointed out in his Wednesday briefing that (1) analysts are still revising their 2022 & 2033 earnings estimated higher, and (2) there is aggressive insider buying, which bodes well for a stock market recovery. Speaking of a stock market recovery, Bespoke Investment Group issued a good report after NASDAQ’s Tuesday plunge that showed that there have only been six 30% corrections from the highs and the median duration was 127 days.  Coincidently, after the Tuesday NASDAQ selloff, the correction was 127 days old.  Historically, the NASDAQ Composite has rallied a median of 1.4% (1 month), 3.5% (3 months), 6.7% (6 months), and 14.4% (1 year) after its six previous 30% drawdowns. Single-Family Home Sales Plunge The Commerce Department on Tuesday announced that new single-family home sales in April plunged 16.6% to an annual pace of 591,000 and are now running 26.9% lower than 12 months ago.  This was well the biggest monthly drop in nine years and substantially below economists’ consensus estimate of 749,000.  The median new home price is now $450,000, which is up 19.6% in the past 12 months.  So between high new home prices combined with higher mortgage rates (now 5.25%, up from 3% in the beginning of the year), these two factors are now apparently adversely impeding new home sales.  Interestingly, the Commerce Department on Wednesday announced that durable goods orders rose 0.4% in April, which was below economists’ consensus estimate of a 0.6% increase.  The March durable goods orders were revised down to a 0.6% increase.  Core durable goods in April increased 0.3%, which was substantially below economists’ consensus estimate of 0.6%, and a revised 1.2% increase in core durable goods in March. Downward GDP Although April was clearly a big deceleration for durable goods, unfilled orders rose 0.5% for the 20th straight monthly increase.  Furthermore, inventories of manufactured goods rose 0.8% in April for the 15th straight monthly increase.  In the wake of the big drop in new home sales as well as decelerating durable goods orders, I expect some downward revisions to second-quarter GDP growth. Coffee Beans Inflation is at the forefront of residents’ minds in several countries around the world according to a global survey. In the UK, 52 percent of respondents said it was one of their country’s leading problems in 2021/22, up from 35 percent in 2020/21. Other European countries are also showing signs of growing worry over the tightening of purse strings, including Germany (from 33 percent to 44 percent), Spain (41 percent to 51 percent) and Italy (from 29 percent to 37 percent). Russians harbor the most worries over inflation (more than 70 percent.) Source: Statista. See the full story here. Updated on May 25, 2022, 3:56 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkMay 25th, 2022

Will Defensive Sectors Shine in the Extremely Volatile 2022?

We have narrowed our search to five defensive stocks. These are: GWRS, VST, AMN, ADM, PPC. Wall Street has witnessed a tough 2022 so far after an astonishing rally in the pandemic-ridden last two years. The economic pain of coronavirus has been felt for the first time this year as the U.S. government has stopped its fiscal stimulus and the Fed turned ultra-hawkish from ultra-dovish in its monetary policies.The complete devastation of the global supply-chain system, 40-year high inflation, sky-high commodity prices and food inflation thanks to a prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine and a tougher-than-expected Fed with a harsher rate hike to cool inflation have significantly dented market participants’ confidence in risky assets like equities.A series of weak economic data and some bad news from corporate America have heightened investors’ concerns of an impending recession. Wall Street is falling precipitously in the absence of a trigger to rebound.An Ultra-Hawkish Fed   The Fed has already hiked the benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points and given a clear indication of two more rate hikes of 50 basis points each in June and July. The central bank terminated the $120 billion monthly quantitative easing program in March and will start shrinking its $9 trillion balance sheet from June.Market participants expect the Fed to take a harsher strategy to combat inflation. On May 12, Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted that he cannot give any guarantee for a soft landing of the economy under a higher interest rate regime. Several economists are expecting the Fed fund rate to exceed 2% by the end of 2022.Big Retailers Raise Alarm BellIn the last couple of weeks, several big U.S. retailers missed earnings estimates and issued a disappointing guidance. Mounting inflation has resulted in an unexpected rise in logistics and labor costs. Moreover, a section of Americans is shifting expenditure from discretionary items to necessary goods, especially groceries.  The Fed has decided to aggressively hike the interest rate. This will raise the cost of borrowing for businesses. Higher prices of final products will reduce the aggregate demand, the major growth driver of the U.S. economy.Snap Sends Shock Wave on Digital AdvertisingOn May 23, after the closing bell, Snap Inc.’s (SNAP) CEO Evan Spiegel warned in a note to employees that the social media company will miss its targets for revenues and adjusted earnings in second-quarter 2022. Spiegel said “the macro environment has deteriorated further and faster than we anticipated when we issued our quarterly guidance last month.”Spiegel’s warning sends a shock wave across Wall Street. Most of the stock analysts and financial researchers believe that this is not an isolated phenomenon for the company. The companies that depend most on digital advertising revenues are likely to suffer going forward.Accordingly, shares of social media giants Meta Platforms Inc. (FB), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) and Twitter Inc. (TWTR)  have tumbled 7.6%, 5% and 5.6%, respectively. Snap’s warning is considered by several economists that the U.S. economy is slowing down.Why Defensive StocksMarkets are likely to remain volatile as investors are waiting for back-to-back crucial FOMC meetings in June and July. Defensive sectors like consumer staples, utilities and health care should provide stability to one’s portfolio. In the past three months, out of the 11 broad sectors of the S&P 500 Index, the Utilities and Heal Care gained 13% and 3.3%, respectively, and the Consumer Staples fell marginally by 0.3%.Defensive sectors are mature and fundamentally strong as demand for such services is generally immune to the changes in the economic cycle. These sectors include companies that provide necessities and products for daily use. Therefore, these sectors have always been a go-to place for investors, who want to play it safe during extreme market fluctuations irrespective of internal or external disturbances.At this stage, it should be a prudent move to invest in stocks from defensive sector with a favorable Zacks Rank. Several such stocks are available, from which we have selected five.  These stocks have strong potential for the rest of 2022 and have seen positive estimate revisions in the last 30 days.These are — Global Water Resources Inc. GWRS, Vistra Corp. VST, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. ADM, Pilgrim's Pride Corp. PPC and AMN Healthcare Services Inc. AMN. Each of our picks sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The chart below shows the price performance of our five picks in the past three months.Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. It’s a little-known chemical company that’s up 65% over last year, yet still dirt cheap. With unrelenting demand, soaring 2022 earnings estimates, and $1.5 billion for repurchasing shares, retail investors could jump in at any time. This company could rival or surpass other recent Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in little more than 9 months and NVIDIA which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM): Free Stock Analysis Report Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (PPC): Free Stock Analysis Report AMN Healthcare Services Inc (AMN): Free Stock Analysis Report Global Water Resources, Inc. (GWRS): Free Stock Analysis Report Vistra Corp. (VST): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksMay 25th, 2022

Stock Market News for May 25, 2022

U.S. stock markets closed mixed on Tuesday after a choppy session. U.S. stock markets closed mixed on Tuesday after a choppy session. The meltdown of the technology sector continues. Investors remained concerned about an impending recession of the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite ended in negative territory while the Dow finished in the green.How Did The Benchmarks Perform?The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 0.2% to close at 31,928.62. Notably, 18 components of the 30-stock index ended in positive territory while 12 in negative zone. The blue-chip index fell 1.6% at its low in intraday trading.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished at 11.264.45, plummeting 2.4% or 270.83 points due to the strong performance of large-cap technology stocks. The tech-laden index posted its lowest close since Nov 3, 2020. Moreover, the index is currently in bear market.Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dropped 0.8% to end at 3,941.48. Five out of 11 broad sectors of the benchmark index closed in positive zone while six ended in red. The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR (XLC), the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) and the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) plunged 3.6%, 2.6% and 1.5%, respectively. On the other hand, the Consumer Staples Select Sector (XLP), the Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU) and the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (XLRE) rallied 1.6%, 2% and 1.2%, respectively.The fear-gauge CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was up 3.4% to 29.45. A total of 11.78 billion shares were traded Tuesday, lower than the last 20-session average of 13.33 billion. Decliners outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.28-to-1 ratio. On Nasdaq, a 2.37-to-1 ratio favored declining issues.Snap Sends Shock Wave to Technology SectorOn May 23, after the closing bell, Snap Inc.’s SNAP CEO Evan Spiegel warned in a note to employees that the social media company will miss its targets for revenue and adjusted earnings in the ensuing second-quarter 2022. Spiegel said “the macro environment has deteriorated further and faster than we anticipated when we issued our quarterly guidance last month.”Spiegel’s warning sends a shock wave across Wall Street. Most of the stock analysts and financial researchers have opined that this is not an isolated phenomenon for the company. The companies that depend most on advertising revenues are likely to suffer going forward.Accordingly, shares of social media giants Meta Platforms Inc. FB, Alphabet Inc. GOOGL and Twitter Inc. TWTR  have tumbled 7.6%, 5% and 5.6%, respectively. All four stocks carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Snap’s warning is considered by several economists that the U.S. economy is slowing down. Last week, a number of retail behemoths have warned that mounting inflation, prolonged supply-chain disruptions and labor shortage are denting their profits.Moreover, the Fed has decided to aggressively hike interest rate. This will raise the cost of borrowing for businesses. Higher prices of final products will reduce the aggregate demand, the major growth driver of the U.S. economy.The yield on the benchmark 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note fell to 2.73% from 3.23% at the beginning of this month. Investors are gradually dumping risky assets like equities and opting for safe-haven government bonds. As a result, bond prices and increasing resulting in falling yields.Economic DataThe U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that new home sales in April came in at 591,000 units, well below the consensus estimate of 747,000 units. Moreover, the data for March was revised downward to 709,000 units from 763,000 units reported earlier. Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. It’s a little-known chemical company that’s up 65% over last year, yet still dirt cheap. With unrelenting demand, soaring 2022 earnings estimates, and $1.5 billion for repurchasing shares, retail investors could jump in at any time. This company could rival or surpass other recent Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in little more than 9 months and NVIDIA which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Meta Platforms, Inc. (FB): Free Stock Analysis Report Twitter, Inc. (TWTR): Free Stock Analysis Report Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Free Stock Analysis Report Snap Inc. (SNAP): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksMay 25th, 2022

The Shocks Which Have Ripped Through The UK Economy During The Queen’s 70 Year Reign

1956 – The Suez canal crisis in 1956 led to an economic crisis and capital flight 1975 – Consumer price inflation reached 24% during the oil crisis 1984 – Unemployment soared to 11.9% amid miners’ strike 1987  – FTSE All Share drops 22% on Black Monday 2001 – Dotcom bubble burst and markets fall by […] 1956 – The Suez canal crisis in 1956 led to an economic crisis and capital flight 1975 – Consumer price inflation reached 24% during the oil crisis 1984 – Unemployment soared to 11.9% amid miners’ strike 1987  – FTSE All Share drops 22% on Black Monday 2001 – Dotcom bubble burst and markets fall by more than 50% over 3 years 2008 – Financial crisis hits with housing market falling 15% by February 2009 2016 – The vote for Brexit sees the pound fall sharply on currency markets 2000 – The pandemic sees record fall in output, with GDP falling 19.6% 2022 – War in Ukraine unleashing commodity chaos and soaring inflation June 2022 – drop in production expected as UK workers stop to celebrate Queen’s reign if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The ONS has detailed how events in history compared to the effect of the pandemic: GDP and events in history: how the COVID-19 pandemic shocked the UK economy - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) The Shuddering UK Economy "The UK economy has shuddered with a series of shocks since Queen Elizabeth II was crowned in June 1953, following her accession in February 1952. There have been oil shocks, financial crises, market mayhem, war and a pandemic and at times inflation has soared much higher than today’s hot prices, with the economy setting off on multiple rollercoaster rides during her 70 year reign. The stock market has suffered in tandem with these shocks, but has regained form in the years which have followed. The invasion of Egypt by Britain, France and Israel following the nationalisation of the Suez canal just three years after the coronation sparked an economic crisis with intense speculative pressure on the pound leading to a flight of capital from the UK. Consumer price inflation reached the scorching levels of 24% in July 1975, after an oil embargo was slapped on Western nations by the oil cartel OPEC, leading to a deep recession.  There was not much respite before the Iranian revolution sparked a fresh spike in energy prices, laying the chill ground for a winter of discontent amid soaring interest rates and mass walk outs with household spending plummeting by 4.2%. Just a few years later the miners’ strike led to production plummeting and unemployment reaching record levels of 11.9% in the second quarter of 1984. Investors have been taken on a wild ride with other falls clocked up sparked by infamous events such as the Black Monday crash in October 1987 which saw the FTSE 100 fall 23% over two days. The bursting of the dot com bubble in 2000 led to a sharp downturn in the FTSE All share, falling by around 50% over three years. But this volatility was then overshadowed by another deep rout after the global financial crisis hit the markets in September 2008 with the repercussions causing unemployment to soar to 8.4% and house prices plummeting 15% in a year. The shock of Brexit inflicted pain for the pound which fell to a 31 year low on currency markets as traders fretted about the impact of leaving the EU for the UK economy. Less than four years later investors had to buckle up to ride out the damage wreaked by the pandemic. Lockdowns between April and June in 2020 caused household spending to plunge by 20%, the largest quarterly contraction on record, sparking the biggest ever decline in output, with GDP falling 19.8%. As preparations for the platinum jubilee events continue, volatility has again hit the financial markets as the commodity chaos unleashed by the devastating war in Ukraine sends inflation soaring once more.  Don’t be surprised if there is another knock to economic output in June’s GDP snapshot. All the planned celebrations over the jubilee extra-long weekend are expected to lead to a drop in productivity, as flag waving, parties and BBQs replace hours punching keyboards and on factory floors. The golden jubilee celebrations in 2002 saw production fall by 5.4% and it dipped again in 2012 for the 60th celebrations. But that is likely to be a very small fall compared to the economic storms the Queen has witnessed time and time again over her reign. Rapid falls in the price of shares exacerbated by economic shocks can be unnerving for investors but tough times have been shown not to  last forever, and markets eventually recover. With inflation appearing to run rampant, and a recession looming right now, there are clearly tougher times ahead for companies and consumers but it’s important for investors to think back to their long-term strategy and stay resilient when markets are jittery. We don’t know exactly what is round the corner but by keeping calm and carrying on, instead of impulsively selling, might benefit you in the long run when prices eventually recover." Article by Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown About Hargreaves Lansdown Over1.7 million clients trust us with £132.2 billion (as at 30 April 2022), making us the UK’s number one platform for private investors. More than 98% of client activity is done through our digital channels and over 600,000 access our mobile app each month. Updated on May 24, 2022, 4:41 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkMay 25th, 2022

Pfizer CEO predicts "constant waves" of COVID-19 because of complacency about the coronavirus and politicization of the pandemic

The consequences of people's hesitancy to wear masks and get vaccinated will likely be seen over the next few months, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla.AP Photo/Giannis Papanikos, File Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla warned Wednesday of "constant waves" of COVID-19. He pointed to complacency about the virus, politicization of the pandemic, and diminishing immunity. Cases are rising in the US and the rate at which people are getting vaccinated is falling. The world is likely to suffer from "constant waves" of COVID-19, the CEO of Pfizer warned Wednesday.Albert Bourla pointed to complacency about the virus, politicization of the pandemic, and diminishing immunity from vaccines and prior infections, according to comments reported by the Financial Times.People are also growing "tired" of COVID-19 safety regulations, said Bourla, who was speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where world leaders and members of the business elite are gathered for an annual summit.Though COVID-19 cases are falling globally, in the US they've been gradually rising since early April, data from Johns Hopkins University shows. In the week to May 22, the US reported 790,000 new cases, more than three times as many as were reported in the last week of March.Pfizer said on May 3 it expects 2022 revenue from Comirnaty, its COVID-19 vaccine, of around $32 billion."What worries me is the complacency," Bourla said in Davos, noting that fewer people were wearing masks and that even people who have already been vaccinated were less likely to get booster shots. The consequences would likely be seen in between three and six months, he predicted.Bourla said Pfizer believed that antiviral drugs would replace vaccines as the key weapon in fighting the coronavirus, at least until shots providing a longer period of immunity were developed. Pfizer was "doubling down" on producing its antiviral pill Paxlovid, Bourla added.Pfizer on Wednesday announced that it would provide all its current and future patent-protected medicines and vaccines available in the US and EU on a not-for-profit basis to 45 lower-income countries, which it said collectively had 1.2 billion residents.There have been more than 526 million reported COVID-19 cases globally and 6.28 million deaths, data from Johns Hopkins University shows.Almost 11.5 billion doses of a coronavirus vaccine have been given globally, according to the data, but the rate at which people are getting vaccinated is falling. In the week to June 27, 2021, around 325.5 million doses were administered. In the week to May 22, 2022, just 38.6 million vaccines were given, per the data.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderMay 25th, 2022

As Food Protectionism Spreads, India Limits Sugar Exports, Malaysia Halts Chicken Sales

As Food Protectionism Spreads, India Limits Sugar Exports, Malaysia Halts Chicken Sales Tuesday was a jammed-packed day for food protectionism developments across Asia. India announced a sugar export ban, and Malaysia halted shipments of chicken. Like many others in the region, both countries suffer from high inflation. Each respective government and central bank seeks to suppress inflation, and what appears to be the move at the moment (besides raising interest rates) are protectionist measures. If inflation continues to run hot in these countries, the risk of socio-economic turmoil increases.  Today's events first began with India. Bloomberg reported earlier that sources expected a sugar export ban was imminent. The Indian government announced the new trade restrictions late in the US cash session. Following India's lead, Malaysia announced trade restrictions on chickens to curtail rising prices.  We suspect more countries to announce protectionist measures to quell food inflation, though such trade restrictions will only exacerbate food insecurity worldwide.  * * *  Update: India, the world's second-biggest sugar producer, will cap sugar exports at ten million tons during the current sugar season (2021-22). It's another attempt to contain inflation and stabilize domestic prices.  "Taking into consideration unprecedented growth in exports of sugar and the need to maintain sufficient stock of sugar in the country as well as to safeguard interests of the common citizens of the country by keeping prices of sugar under check, Government of India has decided to regulate sugar exports from June 1, 2022," Consumer Affairs Ministry said.  The ministry will allow only 10 million tons of sugar exports for the season that ends in Sept. 2022. Sugar mills have already contracted 9 million tons, and a record 7.8 million tons have already been shipped.  India's curbs on sugar exports follow another protectionist step as wheat exports were restricted earlier this month. The government is trying to get a handle on soaring food inflation by ensuring adequate domestic supplies.  Breaking: After banning wheat export, India curbs sugar export to 10 mn tonne this season, another protectionist step as the country battles runaway inflation. Consumers prices in April climbed to an 8-yr high of 7.79%, overshooting the .@RBI’s target of 6% for 4 straight months. — Zia Haq (@ziahaq) May 24, 2022 India's government is on a protectionist roll. What crop will they ban for export next? * * *  Food protectionism soars and will continue worldwide through 2022, exacerbating food security risks for the world's most vulnerable countries. One country safeguarding its food supplies is India.  Earlier this month, India's government halted wheat exports amid heatwaves threatened crop yields. Another act of protectionism could be announced in the coming days with an export restriction on sugar, according to Bloomberg.  A person familiar with the new trading restrictions says the government plans to announce a ten million ton cap on sugar exports through September. The move guarantees that domestic stockpiles are adequate ahead of the next growing season in October.  India is the second-largest sugar exporter behind Brazil. Its largest customers include Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Dubai.  Bloomberg notes the proposed sugar trade restriction "appears to be an extreme case of precaution:"  India is expected to produce 35 million tons this season and consume 27 million tons, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association. Including last season's stockpiles of about 8.2 million tons, it has a surplus of 16 million, including as much as 10 million for exports. India rarely shipped more than 7 million tons until last year, when exports hit a record 7.2 million. Sugar mills tended to rely on government subsidies to boost exports. However, global prices have jumped almost 20% in the past year, allowing India to increase shipments without subsidies. There are expectations for exports to range between 9 million and 11 million tons this season.  The person said once shipments reach 9 million tons. Exporters will have to submit paperwork to the government to apply for permits to send the remaining 1 million tons. They added the export halt could support global sugar market prices.  Besides increasing protectionism in India, Indonesia's ban on palm oil exports roiled edible oil markets for a month (the restriction has since been reversed). Malaysia also announced to halt 3.6 million chickens a month from June 1 and increase wheat imports to stabilize prices.    The trend is clear: Food protectionism will exacerbate the global food crisis, creating headaches for governments and central banks desperately trying to curb inflation before it becomes unmanageable and results in socio-economic turmoil.  Tyler Durden Tue, 05/24/2022 - 22:25.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytMay 24th, 2022

Futures Slide As Snap Forecast Steamrolls Rebound Optimism

Futures Slide As Snap Forecast Steamrolls Rebound Optimism It's not every day that a relatively small social media company (whose market cap is now less than Twitter) slashing guidance can send shockwaves across global markets and wipe out over a trillion in market cap, yet SNAP's shocking crash after it cut its own guidance released one month ago which hammered risk assets around the globe, and here we are. Add to this the delayed realization that Biden was just spouting his usual senile nonsense yesterday when he said Chinese trade tariffs would be discussed and, well, wave goodbye to the latest dead cat bounce as futures unwind much of Monday's rally. SNAP just crushed any hope of a sustained dead cat bounce — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 23, 2022 US futures declined as technology shares were set to come under pressure after Snap warned it would miss second-quarter profit and revenue forecasts amid deteriorating macroeconomic trends. Nasdaq 100 futures slid 1.5% at 7:30 a.m. ET and S&P 500 futures retreated 1.0% just as the benchmark was starting to pull back from the brink of a bear market amid fears the Federal Reserve’s tightening could hurt growth. Meanwhile in other markets, Chinese tech stocks fell by more than 4%, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index dropped 1%, led by losses in shares of utilities and retail companies. The dollar was little changed, while Treasuries advanced. Snapchat plunged more 31% in premarket trading, while Facebook Meta and other companies that rely on digital advertising also tumbled amid fears that the sudden collapse in ad spending is systemic. Technology shares have been hammered this year amid rising interest rates and soaring inflation, with the Nasdaq 100 trading near November 2020 lows and at the cheapest valuations since the early days of the pandemic. Social media stocks are on course to erase more than $100 billion in market value Tuesday after Snap’s warning: Meta Platforms (FB US) declined 6.3%, Twitter (TWTR US) -4.1%, Alphabet (GOOGL US) -3.8% and Pinterest (PINS US) -12%. “It highlights how fleeting swings in sentiment are now and also that investors are running at the first sign of trouble,” Jeffrey Haley, a senior market analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific, wrote in a note. “The market continues to turn itself inside out and back to front as it tries to decide if it has priced all of the impending rate hikes, soft landing or recession, inflation or stagflation, China, Ukraine, US summer driving season, supply chains, the list goes on.” Among other notable moves in US premarket trading, Zoom Video’s shares rallied as much as 6.3% after better-than-expected guidance. Deutsche Bank said the video-software maker’s continued post-pandemic growth in its Enterprise business is encouraging, though analysts remain cautious on the company’s comments around free cash flow. Tesla shares fell 2.6% in premarket trading on Tuesday, amid news that it may take the electric-vehicle maker at least until later this week to resume full production at its China factory. Also, Daiwa analyst Jairam Nathan lowered his price target on TSLA to $800 from $1150, the latest in a string of target cuts by Wall Street analysts. Nathan cited the lockdowns in Shanghai and supply chain concerns impacting ramp-up of Austin and Berlin plants, and lowered the EPS estimates for 2022 and 2023. Elsewhere, Frontline shares rallied 3.1% after the crude oil shipping company reported net income for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Social media and other digital advertisers fell in US premarket trading after Snap cut its forecasts. Albemarle (ALB US) shares may be in focus as analysts raise their price targets on the specialty chemicals maker amid a boost from higher lithium prices. BitNile (NILE US) swings between gains and losses in US premarket trading, after the crypto miner reported 1Q results amid a broader slump across high-growth stocks. Nautilus (NLS US) got a new Street-low price target after exercise equipment maker’s “lackluster” guidance, with the company’s shares slumping as much as 24% in US extended trading on Monday. INmune Bio (INMB US) shares dropped 23% in postmarket trading on Monday after the FDA placed the company’s investigational new drug application to start a Phase 2 trial of XPro in patients with Alzheimer’s disease on clinical hold. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF IS)  falls as much as 21% premarket after the clothing retailer reported an unexpected loss for its first quarter Equities have been volatile as investors assess the outlook for monetary policy, inflation and the impact of China’s strict Covid policies on the global economy. Minutes on Wednesday of the most recent Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting will give markets insight into the US central bank’s tightening path. “With the era of cheap money hurtling to an end the focus will be on a speech from Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve later, with investors keen to glean any new titbit of information about just how far and fast the US central bank will go in raising rates and offloading its mass bond holdings,” Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, wrote in a note. In Europe, the Stoxx 50 slumped 1.4%. FTSE 100 outperformed, dropping 0.6%, while CAC 40 lags. Utilities, retailers and consumer products are the worst performing sectors. Utilities were the biggest decliners in Europe, as Drax Group Plc, Centrica Plc and SSE Plc all sank on Tuesday following a report about UK plans for a possible windfall tax. Air France-KLM fell after plans to sell about 2.26 billion euros ($2.4 billion) of new shares to shore up its balance sheet. Oil and gas stocks underperformed the European equity benchmark in morning trading as crude declines amid investors’ concerns about Chinese demand, while mining shares also fall alongside metal prices.  Here are some of the biggest European movers: Big Yellow shares gain as much as 4% after what Citi described as a “strong set” of results, supported by structural tailwinds. SSP rises as much as 13% after the U.K. catering and concession-services company reported 1H results that Citi says were above expectations. Adevinta climbs as much as 7.8% after reporting 1Q results that were broadly as expected, with revenue slightly below expectations and Ebitda ahead, according to Citi. Frontline gains as much as 6.4% in Oslo after the crude oil shipping company reported 1Q net income that beat the average analyst estimate. Moonpig gains as much as 8.2%, extending a rise of 11% on Monday when the company announced the acquisition of Smartbox Group UK U.K. utility firms sink after the Financial Times reported that Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak has ordered officials to prepare plans for a possible windfall tax on power generators as well as oil and gas firms. SSE declines as much as 11%, Drax Group -19% and Centrica -12% European technology and advertising stocks slump with Nasdaq futures after Snap cut its revenue and profit forecasts below the low end of its previous guidance. Just Eat falls as much as 4.8%, Deliveroo -4.9%, Delivery Hero -4.4%, STMicro -3%, Infineon -2.8%, AMS -3% Prosus drops as much as 6.7% in Amsterdam and Naspers declines as much as 6.1% in Johannesburg as Barclays cuts ratings on both stocks after downgrading Tencent in the prior session. The latest flash PMI data showed that Europe’s two largest economies kept growing in May as they benefited from a sustained rebound in services that offset fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the pound fell after a report showed the UK economy faces an increasing risk of falling into a recession as firms and households buckle under the fastest inflation rate in four decades. At the same time, the euro climbed above $1.07 for the first time in four weeks as ECB President Christine Lagarde said the currency bloc has reached a “turning point” in monetary policy and rejected the idea that the region is heading for a recession, but said the ECB won’t be rushed into withdrawing monetary stimulus. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dipped as traders remained cautious on global growth concerns while assessing the impact of China’s fresh fiscal stimulus.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.2%, with tech names the biggest drags. Lower revenue and profit forecasts from Snap Inc. weighed on the broader sector. Chinese stocks led declines in the region as the government’s new support package including more than 140 billion yuan ($21 billion) in additional tax relief failed to impress investors. Covid-19 lockdowns remain a key overhang, while market participants are looking to major China tech earnings this week, including Alibaba and Baidu, for direction. Hong Kong equities also dropped after the city’s outgoing leader said border controls will remain in place for now.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index tumbles as much as 4.2% in afternoon trading on Tuesday, on track for a second day of declines.  “Markets have caught a glimpse of the impact of regulatory risks and Covid-19 lockdowns from Tencent’s recent lackluster earnings,” and a potential mirroring of the weakness by big tech earnings ahead “may be driving some caution,” Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte., wrote in a note Japanese equities dropped as investors mulled China’s new stimulus measures and amid growing concerns over global economic health.  The Topix Index fell 0.9% to close at 1,878.26 on Tuesday, while the Nikkei declined 0.9% to 26,748.14. Recruit Holdings Co. contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, as the staffing-services firm tumbled 6.6%. Among the 2,171 shares in the index, 1,846 fell, 249 rose and 76 were unchanged. “The markets will continue to be in an unstable situation for a while as the US is still in the process of raising its interest rates and we are entering a phase where the effects of interest rate tightening on the economy will start to be felt in the real economy,” said Hiroshi Matsumoto, senior client portfolio manager at Pictet Asset Management. Indian stocks also declined, dragged by a selloff in information technology firms, as investors remained cautious over global economic growth.  The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.4% to 54,052.61 in Mumbai while the NSE Nifty 50 Index eased 0.6%. The gauges have now dropped for four of five sessions and eased 5.3% and 5.7% this month, respectively. All but two of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined on Tuesday, led by information technology stocks. Foreign funds have been net sellers of Indian stocks since end of September and have taken out $21.3 billion this year through May 20. The benchmark Sensex is now 12.5% off its peak in Oct. Corporate earnings for the March quarter have been mixed as 26 out of 41 Nifty companies have reported profit above or in line with consensus expectations. “There is a lot of skepticism among investors over interest rate hikes in the near term and its impact on growth going ahead,” according to Kotak Securities analyst Shrikant Chouhan. In FX, the dollar dipped while the euro jumped to a one-month high versus the US dollar after the European Central Bank reiterated its plans to end negative rates quickly, bolstering market expectations that rates will rise as early as July. It pared some gains after ECB Governing Council’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau argued against a 50 bps increase. “The single currency is dancing to the tune of ECB policymakers this week as the Governing Council attempts to talk up the euro to insure against imported inflation,” said Simon Harvey, forex analyst at Monex Europe. “The euro’s rally highlights how dip buyers are happy to buy into the ECB’s messaging in the near-term.” Elsewhere, the pound slid and gilts rallied after a weak UK PMI reading ramped up speculation that the country is heading toward recession. The Australian and New Zealand dollars led declines among commodity currencies after Snapchat owner Snap Inc. slashed its revenue forecast, spurring doubts about the strength of the US economy. Japan’s yen snapped a two-day drop as Treasury yields resumed their decline. Japanese government bond yields eased across maturities, following their US peers. In rates, Treasuries were richer by up to 4bp across belly of the curve as S&P futures gapped lower from the reopen and extended losses over Asia, early European session. Treasury 10-year yields around 2.815%, richer by 3.5bp vs. Monday close US session focus to include Fed Chair Powell remarks and 2-year note auction. Gilts outperformed following soft UK data. Gilts outperform by additional 1.5bp in the sector after May’s preliminary PMI prints missed expectations. Belly-led gains steepened the US 5s30s by 1.8bp on the day while wider bull steepening move in gilts steepens UK 5s30s by 5bp on the day.  The US auction cycle begins at 1pm ET with $47b 2- year note sale, followed by $48b 5- and $42b 7-year notes Wednesday and Thursday. In commodities, oil and gas stocks underperformed as crude declined amid concerns about Chinese demand, while mining shares also fall alongside metal prices. WTI is in the red but recovers off worst levels to trade back on a $109-handle. Most base metals trade poorly; LME nickel falls 4.5%, underperforming peers. Spot gold rises roughly $5 to trade above $1,858/oz. Looking at the day ahead, we’ll get the rest of the May flash PMIs from Europe and the US, along with US new home sales for April and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for May. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the ECB’s Villeroy and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 1.3% to 3,920.75 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 432.44 MXAP down 1.1% to 163.24 MXAPJ down 1.3% to 531.58 Nikkei down 0.9% to 26,748.14 Topix down 0.9% to 1,878.26 Hang Seng Index down 1.7% to 20,112.10 Shanghai Composite down 2.4% to 3,070.93 Sensex down 0.3% to 54,148.93 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,128.83 Kospi down 1.6% to 2,605.87 Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,859.38 US Dollar Index down 0.11% to 101.96 Brent Futures down 0.2% to $113.15/bbl German 10Y yield little changed at 0.99% Euro up 0.2% to $1.0713 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Social media stocks are on course to shed more than $100 billion in market value after Snap Inc.’s profit warning, adding to woes for the sector which is already reeling amid stalling user growth and rate-hike fears. The US must be “strategic” when it comes to a decision on whether to remove China tariffs, Trade Representative Katherine Tai said a day after President Joe Biden mentioned he would review Trump-era levies as consumer prices surge. China rolled out a broad package of measures to support businesses and stimulate demand as it seeks to offset the damage from Covid lockdowns on the world’s second-largest economy. China’s central bank and banking regulator urged lenders to boost loans as the economy is battered by Covid outbreaks that have threatened growth this year. President Joe Biden is seeking to show US resolve against China, yet an ill-timed gaffe on Taiwan risks undermining his bid to curb Beijing’s growing influence over the region. Europe’s two largest economies kept growing in May as they benefited from a sustained rebound in services that offset fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s currency extended a rally that’s taken it to the strongest level versus the dollar in four years, prompting a warning from one of President Vladimir Putin’s staunchest allies that the gains may be overdone. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk Asia-Pac stocks mostly declined after Snap's profit warning soured risk sentiment and weighed on US tech names. ASX 200 was rangebound but kept afloat for most of the session by resilience in tech and mining stocks, while PMIs remained in expansion territory. Nikkei 225 fell below 27,000 although losses are stemmed by anticipation of incoming relief with Finance Minister Suzuki set to present an additional budget to parliament tomorrow. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured after further bank downgrades to Chinese economic growth forecasts, while the recent announcement of targeted support measures by China and reports of the US mulling reducing China tariffs, did little to spur risk appetite. Top Asian News Shanghai will allow supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores to resume operations with a maximum occupancy of 50% before May 31st and 75% after June 1st, according to Global Times. Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam said they are unlikely to lift the quarantine in her term, according to Bloomberg. US President Biden said there is no change to the policy of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan, while Defense Secretary Austin earlier commented that he thinks US President Biden was clear that US policy has not changed on Taiwan, according to Reuters. USTR Tai said the US is engaging with China on Phase 1 commitments of trade, while she added they must be strategic on tariffs and that President Biden's team believes trade needs new ideas, according to Reuters. China's push to loosen USD dominance is said to take on new urgency amid Western sanctions on Russia and some Chinese advisers are urging the government to overhaul the exchange rate regime to turn the Yuan into an anchor currency, according to SCMP. European bourses are subdued following the Snap-headwind, further hawkish ECB rhetoric and disappointing Flash PMIs; particularly for the UK, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%. US futures are similarly subdued and the Nasdaq, -1.7%, is taking the brunt of the pressure as tech names are hit across the board, ES -1.1%. Snap (SNAP) said the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated since its last guidance issuance and it now believes it will report revenue and adjusted EBITDA below the low end of its Q2 guidance range, according to the filing cited by Reuters. Samsung (005935 KS) is to reportedly invest USD 360bln on chips and biotech over a period of five years, according to Bloomberg. Tesla (TSLA) could take until later this week to restore full production in China after quarantining thousands of workers. Uber (UBER) has initiated a broad hiring freeze across the Co. as it faces increased pressure to become profitable, according to Business Insider sources Top European News UK Chancellor Sunak ordered officials to draw up a plan for a windfall tax on electricity generators' profits, according to FT. ECB's Nagel said it seems clear that the wage moderation seen for 10 years in Germany is over and they think they will see high numbers from German wage negotiations. Germany's Chambers of Commerce DIHK cuts 2022 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% (vs prev. view of 3% made in Feb). FX Yen outperforms on risk off and softer yield dynamics, USD/JPY at low end of wide range stretching from just above 128.00 to just over 127.00 and multiple chart supports under the latter. Franc and Euro underpinned as SNB and ECB pivot towards removal of rate accommodation, USD/CHF sub-0.9650, EUR/USD 1.0700-plus. Dollar suffers as a result of the above, but DXY contains losses under 102.000 as Pound plunges following disappointing UK preliminary PMIs; Cable recoils from the cusp of 1.2600 to touch 1.2475. Aussie, Loonie and Kiwi all suffer from aversion and latter also cautious ahead of RBNZ on Wednesday; AUD/USD loses grip of 0.7100 handle, NZD/USD under 0.6450 having got close to 0.6500 yesterday and USD/CAD probing 1.2800 vs virtual double bottom around 1.2765. Lira loses flight to stay above 16.0000 vs Buck as Turkish President Erdogan refuses to acknowledge Greek leader and sets out plans to strengthen nation’s southern border defences. Fixed Income Gilts fly after UK PMIs miss consensus and only trim some gains in response to much better than expected CBI distributive trades 10 year bond holds near the top of a 118.86-117.92 range Bunds bounce from sub-153.00 lows after more hawkish guidance from ECB President Lagarde, but Italian BTPs lag under 128.00 as books build for 15 year issuance US Treasuries bull-flatten ahead of 2 year note supply and Fed's Powell, T-note just shy of 120-00 within 120-02+/119-18 band Italy has commenced marketing a new syndicated 15yr BTP, guidance +11bp vs outstanding March 2037 bond, according to the lead manager via Reuters; subsequently, set at +8bp. Commodities WTI and Brent are subdued amid the broader risk environment with familiar factors still in play; however, the benchmarks are off lows amid USD downside. Meandering around USD 110/bbl (vs low 108.61/bbl) and USD 113/bbl (vs low USD 111.70/bbl) respectively. White House is considering environmental waivers for all blends of US gasoline to lower pump prices, according to Reuters sources. Spot gold is modestly firmer though it has failed to extend after briefly surpassing the 21-DMA at USD 1856/oz. Central Banks ECB's Lagarde believes the blog post on Monday was at a good time, adding we are clearly at a turning point, via Bloomberg TV; adds, we are not in a panic mode. Rates are likely to be positive at end-Q3; when out of negative rates, you can be at or slightly above zero. Does not comment on FX levels, when questioned about EUR/USD parity. Click here for more detail, analysis & reaction. ECB's Villeroy says he believes the ECB will be at a neutral rate at some point next year, via Bloomberg TV; 50bps hike does not belong to the Governing Council's consensus, does not yet know the terminal rate. NBH Virag says continuing to increase rates in 50bp increments is an options, increasing into double-digits is not justified. US Event Calendar 09:45: May S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 57.6, prior 59.2 May S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 55.2, prior 55.6 May S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 55.6, prior 56.0 10:00: May Richmond Fed Index, est. 10, prior 14 10:00: April New Home Sales MoM, est. -1.7%, prior -8.6%; New Home Sales, est. 750,000, prior 763,000 Central Banks 12:20pm: Powell Makes Welcoming Remarks at an Economic Summit DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap These are pretty binary markets at the moment. If the US doesn’t fall into recession over the next 3-6 months then it’s easy to see markets rallying over this period. However if it does, the correction will likely have further to run and go beyond the average recession sell-off (that we were close to at the lows last week) given the rich starting valuations. For choice I don’t think the US will go into recession over this period but as you know I do think it will next year. As such a rally should be followed by bigger falls next year. Two problems with this view. Timing the recession call and timing the market’s second guessing of it. Apart from that it's all very easy!! This week started on a completely different basis to most over the past few months. So much so that there's hope that the successive weekly losing S&P streak of seven might be ended. 4 days to go is a long time in these markets but after day one we're at +1.86% and the strongest start to a week since January. And that comes on top of its intraday recovery of more than +2% late on Friday’s session, after the index had briefly entered bear market territory, which brings the index’s gains to more than 4% since its Friday lows at around the European close. However just when you thought it was safe to emerge from behind the sofa, S&P 500 futures are -0.84% this morning with Nasdaq futures -1.42% due to Snapchat slashing profit and revenue forecasts overnight. Their shares were as much as -31% lower in after hours, taking other social media stocks with it. Asia is also weaker this morning as we'll see below. Before we get there, yesterday's rally was built on a few bits of positive news that are worth highlighting. Investors were buoyed from the get-go by remarks from President Biden that he’d be considering whether to review Trump-era tariffs on China. It had been reported previously that such a move was under consideration, but there are also geopolitical as well as economic factors to contend with, and a Reuters report last week cited sources who said that US Trade Representative Katherine Tai favoured keeping the tariffs in place. Biden said that he’d be discussing the issue with Treasury Secretary Yellen following his return to the United States, so one to watch in the coming days with the administration under pressure to deal with inflation. This comes as the Biden administration unveiled the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework yesterday, which covers 13 countries and approximately 40% of the world’s GDP. Conspicuously, China was not one of the included parties, but US officials said there was a path for them to join. The framework reportedly does not contain any new tariff reductions, but instead seems focused on new labour, environmental, and anti-money laundering standards while seeking to build resilience. The 13 involved countries said in a joint statement, “This framework is intended to advance resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness, and competitiveness for our economies.” It is not clear what is binding, or what Congress will think about the framework, but regardless, this is battle to halt or slow the anti-globalisation sentiment so prominent in recent years. It was not just Biden who helped encourage the rally. We then had a further dose of optimism in the European morning after the Ifo Institute’s indicators from Germany surprised on the upside. Their business climate indicator unexpectedly rose to 93.0 in May (vs. 91.4 expected), thus marking a second successive increase from the March low after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This morning we’ll get the May flash PMIs for Germany and elsewhere in Europe, so let’s see if they paint a similar picture. Ahead of that, equity indices moved higher across the world, with the S&P 500 up +1.86% as mentioned, joining other indices higher including the NASDAQ (+1.59%), the Dow Jones (+1.98%), and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.10%). It was a very broad-based advance, with every big sector group moving higher on the day, and banks (+5.12%) saw the largest advance in the S&P 500. Meanwhile, consumer discretionary (+0.64%) continues to lag the broader index. Over in Europe there were also some major advances, with the STOXX 600 (+1.26%), the DAX (+1.38%) and the CAC 40 (+1.17%) all rising. They have lagged the US move since Friday's Euro close mostly because they have out-performed on the downside. Staying on Europe, we had some significant developments on the policy outlook as ECB President Lagarde published a blog post that basically endorsed near-term market pricing for future hikes. In turn, that helped the euro to strengthen against other major currencies and led to a rise in sovereign bond yields. In the post, Lagarde said that she expected net purchases under the APP “to end very early in the third quarter”, which would enable rates to begin liftoff at the July meeting in just over 8 weeks from now. Furthermore, the post said that “on the current outlook, we are likely to be in a position to exit negative interest rates by the end of the third quarter”, so implying that we’ll see more than one hike in Q3, assuming they move by 25bp increments. Interestingly, Bloomberg subsequently reported that others at the ECB wanted to keep open the possibility of moving even faster. Indeed, it said that Lagarde’s plan had “irked colleagues” seeking to keep that option open, and was “a position that leaves some more hawkish officials uncomfortable.” So according to this, some officials want to keep the option of moving in 50bp increments like the Fed did earlier this month, although so far only Dutch central bank Governor Knot has openly referred to this as a possibility. That move from Lagarde to endorse an exit from negative rates in Q3 sent sovereign bonds noticeably higher after the blog post was released, with 10yr bund yields giving up their initial decline to rise +7.5bps by the close, aided by the broader risk-on move. Those on 10yr OATs (+7.1bps) and BTPs (+3.3bps) also moved higher, with a rise in real yields driving the moves in all cases. Nevertheless, when it came to what the market was pricing for future rate hikes, Lagarde’s comments seemed to just solidify where they’d already reached, with the amount priced in for the ECB by year-end rising just +5.5bps to remain above 100bps. Given the ECB’s more hawkish rhetoric of late as well as the upside Ifo reading, the Euro gained further ground against the US dollar over the last 24 hours, strengthening by +1.20% in yesterday’s session. In fact, the dollar was the second-worst performer amongst all the G10 currencies yesterday, narrowly edging out the yen, and the dollar index has now shed -2.64% since its peak less than two weeks ago. That’s in line with what our FX colleagues argued in their Blueprint at the end of last week (link here), where they see the reversal of the dollar risk premium alongside ECB tightening sending EURUSD back above 1.10 over the summer. But even though the dollar was losing ground, US Treasury yields still moved higher alongside their European counterparts, with 10yr yields up +7.0bps to 2.85%. They given back around a basis point this morning. Over to Asia and as discussed earlier markets are weaker. The Hang Seng (-1.50%) is extending its previous session losses with stocks in mainland China also lagging. The Shanghai Composite (-1.09%) and CSI (-0.80%) are both trading lower even as the government is offering more than 140 billion yuan ($21 billion) in extra tax relief to companies and consumers as it seeks to offset the impact of Covid-induced lockdowns on the world’s second biggest economy. Among the agreed new steps, China will also reduce some passenger car purchase taxes by 60 billion yuan. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.51%) and Kospi (-0.90%) are also trading in the red. Early morning data showed that Japan’s manufacturing activity expanded at the slowest pace in three months in May after the au Jibun Bank flash manufacturing PMI slipped to +53.2 from a final reading of +53.5 in April amid supply bottlenecks with new orders growth slowing. Meanwhile, the nation’s services PMI improved to +51.7 in May from +50.7. Elsewhere, manufacturing sector activity in Australia expanded at the slowest pace in four months as the S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI fell to +55.3 in May from April’s +58.8 level while the services PMI dropped to +53.0 in May. While markets try to judge whether or not a near-term recession is imminent and how severe it may be, another external shock to contend with is the growing Covid case count in mainland China and how stiff the lockdown measures authorities will impose to contain outbreaks. As we reported yesterday, Beijing registered record case growth over the weekend. The Chinese mainland on Monday reported 141 locally-transmitted confirmed COVID-19 cases, of which 58 were in Shanghai and 41 in Beijing. So these numbers will be closely watched over the next few days. To the day ahead now, and we’ll get the rest of the May flash PMIs from Europe and the US, along with US new home sales for April and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for May. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the ECB’s Villeroy and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Tyler Durden Tue, 05/24/2022 - 08:08.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeMay 24th, 2022