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Mortgage Applications for New Home Purchases Decreased 10.6% in April

Mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 10.6% compared to a year ago, according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) released this week. Compared to March 2022, applications decreased by 14%. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns, MBA stated. Additional key findings: MBA estimates new… The post Mortgage Applications for New Home Purchases Decreased 10.6% in April appeared first on RISMedia. Mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 10.6% compared to a year ago, according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) released this week. Compared to March 2022, applications decreased by 14%. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns, MBA stated. Additional key findings: MBA estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 701,000 units in April 2022, based on data from the BAS. The new home sales estimate is derived using mortgage application information from the BAS, as well as assumptions regarding market coverage and other factors. The seasonally adjusted estimate for April is a decrease of 6.8% from the March pace of 752,000 units.  On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimates that there were 65,000 new home sales in April 2022, a decrease of 12.2% from 74,000 new home sales in March. By product type, conventional loans composed 76.7% of loan applications, FHA loans composed 13.1% , RHS/USDA loans composed 0.2% and VA loans composed 10.1%. The average loan size of new homes increased from $436,151 in March to $436,576 in April. The takeaway: “New home purchase activity declined on a monthly and annual basis in April, as the spike in mortgage rates cooled demand, and homebuilders continued to grapple with rising costs, supply-chain issues, and extended completion timelines,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “With the supply of existing homes on the market still at extremely low levels, the new home market is an important source of housing supply. However, the pace of construction has slowed in recent months. MBA’s estimate of new home sales declined for the fifth consecutive month to 701,000 units, the slowest sales pace since May 2020.” Added Kan, “The average loan size increased to a new survey high of $436,576, and over half of applications were for loan amounts greater than $400,000. Higher rates and sales prices and larger loan sizes are eroding housing affordability and pricing some buyers out of the market.” The post Mortgage Applications for New Home Purchases Decreased 10.6% in April appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaMay 19th, 2022

The Air Is Coming Out Of The Housing Bubble

The Air Is Coming Out Of The Housing Bubble Via SchiffGold.com, The Fed has barely started raising interest rates but the air is already seeping out of the housing bubble. New single-family home sales plunged by 16.6% from March and were down 26.9% year on year. New home sales dropped to the lowest level since the lockdown in April 2020. New home sales are often viewed as a leading indicator of the state of the overall housing market. The unsold inventory of new homes spiked by 34,000, a historic month-to-month leap. There were 440,000 unsold new homes (seasonally adjusted), the highest level since May 2008 in the midst of the housing bust. Both, the month-to-month and year-over-year increases in unsold new homes were the largest leaps ever recorded, both in numbers of unsold houses and in percentage terms. The biggest drop in new home sales occurred in the under-$400k price range, indicating that high prices and rising mortgage rates are squeezing middle-class Americans out of the housing market. WolfStreet broke down the current dynamics in housing. Homebuyers struggle with spiking mortgage rates which make the high home prices that much more difficult to deal with. And with each increase in mortgage rates, and with each increase in home prices, entire layers of potential buyers abandon the market, and sales volume plunges.” The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) data for April 2022 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 10.6% compared to a year ago. Compared to March 2022, applications decreased by 14%. The Federal Reserve blew up this housing bubble when it artificially suppressed interest rates and bought billions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities. Now the central bank has pricked the bubble by allowing rates to rise ever-so-slightly. What the Fed giveth, the Fed taketh away. Mortgage rates began to fall in late 2018 as the economy tanked and the Federal Reserve ended its post-2008 rate hike cycle. Rates continued to fall as the Fed pivoted back to quantitative easing and then dropped through the floor with the rate cuts and QE infinity in response to the coronavirus. The big spike in mortgage rates we’re seeing today started as the Fed began talking up monetary tightening to tackle raging inflation. Tight housing inventory has kept home prices up even as sales have dropped, but as more and more people are squeezed out of the market, prices will likely begin to fall. While we may not see the kind of crash we saw in 2008, a housing market bust will reverberate through the economy as rising housing prices squeeze Americans already struggling to make ends meet. And as Peter Schiff pointed out in a tweet, falling prices will wipe out home equity for millions of homeowners. But lower house prices will offer little relief to new buyers, as rising mortgage rates, utilities, taxes, maintenance, and insurance offset the drop.” Tyler Durden Wed, 05/25/2022 - 09:25.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeMay 25th, 2022

Mortgage Applications for New Home Purchases Decreased 10.6% in April

Mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 10.6% compared to a year ago, according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) released this week. Compared to March 2022, applications decreased by 14%. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns, MBA stated. Additional key findings: MBA estimates new… The post Mortgage Applications for New Home Purchases Decreased 10.6% in April appeared first on RISMedia. Mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 10.6% compared to a year ago, according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) released this week. Compared to March 2022, applications decreased by 14%. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns, MBA stated. Additional key findings: MBA estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 701,000 units in April 2022, based on data from the BAS. The new home sales estimate is derived using mortgage application information from the BAS, as well as assumptions regarding market coverage and other factors. The seasonally adjusted estimate for April is a decrease of 6.8% from the March pace of 752,000 units.  On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimates that there were 65,000 new home sales in April 2022, a decrease of 12.2% from 74,000 new home sales in March. By product type, conventional loans composed 76.7% of loan applications, FHA loans composed 13.1% , RHS/USDA loans composed 0.2% and VA loans composed 10.1%. The average loan size of new homes increased from $436,151 in March to $436,576 in April. The takeaway: “New home purchase activity declined on a monthly and annual basis in April, as the spike in mortgage rates cooled demand, and homebuilders continued to grapple with rising costs, supply-chain issues, and extended completion timelines,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “With the supply of existing homes on the market still at extremely low levels, the new home market is an important source of housing supply. However, the pace of construction has slowed in recent months. MBA’s estimate of new home sales declined for the fifth consecutive month to 701,000 units, the slowest sales pace since May 2020.” Added Kan, “The average loan size increased to a new survey high of $436,576, and over half of applications were for loan amounts greater than $400,000. Higher rates and sales prices and larger loan sizes are eroding housing affordability and pricing some buyers out of the market.” The post Mortgage Applications for New Home Purchases Decreased 10.6% in April appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaMay 19th, 2022

New Home Purchase Mortgage Applications Decrease 5% Year-Over-Year

Mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 5% compared to a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) March 2022 Builder Application Survey (BAS). Compared to February 2022, applications increased by 10%. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns, as buying generally picks up in spring. Key facts: MBA… The post New Home Purchase Mortgage Applications Decrease 5% Year-Over-Year appeared first on RISMedia. Mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 5% compared to a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) March 2022 Builder Application Survey (BAS). Compared to February 2022, applications increased by 10%. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns, as buying generally picks up in spring. Key facts: MBA estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 752,000 units in March 2022, based on data from the BAS. The seasonally adjusted estimate for March is a decrease of 4.9% from the February pace of 791,000 units. On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimates that there were 74,000 new home sales in March 2022, an increase of 12.1% from 66,000 new home sales in February. Breakdown by product type: Conventional loans composed 76.6% of loan applications FHA loans composed 13.0% RHS/USDA loans composed 0.2% VA loans composed 10.2% The average loan size of new homes increased from $432,359 in February to $436,151 in March. The takeaway: “Mortgage applications for new home purchases increased in March, which is consistent with typical seasonal trends and a sign of the strong underlying demand for housing,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Potential buyers have increasingly looked to new homes as an option, given the lack of existing homes for sale. The average loan size continued to set record highs and reached $436,151. Growth in applications for larger loans continued to dominate application activity.” Added Kan, “MBA’s estimate of new home sales declined for the fourth consecutive month, with activity down 5% compared to February. Elevated home prices, rapidly increasing mortgage rates, and higher costs and supply shortages for building materials are all affecting sales growth.” Click here to read the full report.   The post New Home Purchase Mortgage Applications Decrease 5% Year-Over-Year appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaApr 22nd, 2022

Mortgage Demand To Drop Due To Higher Interest Rates, Bankers Estimate

Mortgage demand will feel the brunt of rising rates this year, as buying a home is becoming more expensive. Mortgage bankers are curving their expectations on mortgage originations from $2.61 trillion to $2.58 trillion in 2022. Mortgage Demand To Plunge As reported by CNBC, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) estimate means that mortgage originations will […] Mortgage demand will feel the brunt of rising rates this year, as buying a home is becoming more expensive. Mortgage bankers are curving their expectations on mortgage originations from $2.61 trillion to $2.58 trillion in 2022. Mortgage Demand To Plunge As reported by CNBC, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) estimate means that mortgage originations will have dropped by 35.5% by the end of this year from 2021. This includes refinancing loans. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more At present, the MBA groups over 2,000 firms in the business and its estimations paint a dire picture of the recovery of the U.S. economy. Housing prices have increased amid a tight market, while inflation has reached a fresh 40-year record. The Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates to tackle skyrocketing prices, which has send refinancing on a sharp dive. According to the MBA, refinancing applications during the first week of April were 62% lower than they were the previous year, and they are expected to fall by 64% for the full year. “The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 37.1% of total applications last week from 38.8% the previous week,” CNBC reports. Purchase Origination Still, originations for purchases are expected to jump to a record $1.72 trillion on 2022, down from a previous estimate of $1.77 trillion. Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist, said, “Even though existing sales volume will be slightly lower than last year, the continued growth in new home sales and the rapid rise in home prices should deliver a smaller, but solid, 4% annual growth in purchase origination volume.” “Mortgage rates across all loan types continued to move higher, with the 30-year fixed rate exceeding the 5% mark —the highest since November 2018. Refinance activity as a result declined to the slowest weekly pace since 2019,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. For the first week of April, mortgage demand grew via a 1% increase in applications but was still 6% lower than the same week last year. “In a promising sign of strong purchase demand amidst affordability challenges, both conventional and government purchase applications increased,” Kan said. Updated on Apr 13, 2022, 10:14 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkApr 13th, 2022

Mortgage Applications Decrease Again This Week

Mortgage applications are still on a downward trend this week, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), released Wednesday. MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey showed a decrease of 8.1% from the week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 14% […] The post Mortgage Applications Decrease Again This Week appeared first on RISMedia. Mortgage applications are still on a downward trend this week, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), released Wednesday. MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey showed a decrease of 8.1% from the week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 14% from the previous week and was 54 percent lower than the same week one year ago, MBA data showed. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1% compared with the previous week and was 12% lower than the same week one year ago. Additional Key Findings: Refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 44.8% from 48.4% last week Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.4% FHA share of total applications increased to 8.8% from 8.7% last week The VA share of total applications decreased to 9.8% from 10.5% last week USDA share of total applications decreased to 0.4% from 0.5% last week Average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances increased to 4.5% from 4.27% Average contact interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with balances greater than $647,200 increased 4.11 percent Average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 4.4% from 4.23% Average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.76% from 3.55% Average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 3.39% from 3.36% The takeaway: “Rates on 30-year conforming mortgages jumped by 23 basis points last week, the largest weekly increase since March 2020,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist. “The jump in rates comes as markets moved to price in a much faster pace of rate hikes, as well as expectations of fewer MBS purchases from the Federal Reserve. With mortgage rates now at 4.5 percent, compared to rates at or below 3 percent not that long ago, it is no surprise that refinance volume has dropped by more than 50 percent compared to this time last year. MBA’s new March forecast expects mortgage rates to continue to trend higher through the course of 2022. Purchase application volume was down slightly for the week, with a larger drop in FHA and VA purchase volume, and a small decline in conventional purchase loans. First-time homebuyers, who rely on these government programs, are increasingly challenged by both the rapid increase in home prices and higher mortgage rates. Repeat homebuyers, who are more likely to use conventional loans, benefit from the gains in home equity realized on a sale which can be used to fuel their next purchase, even with rates moving higher.” The post Mortgage Applications Decrease Again This Week appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaMar 23rd, 2022

February New-Home Purchase Mortgage Applications Decreased 3.9%

Mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 3.9% compared from a year ago, according to the lates Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for February 2022, released last week. Compared to January 2022, applications decreased by 1%, which does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns, according to the report. Key […] The post February New-Home Purchase Mortgage Applications Decreased 3.9% appeared first on RISMedia. Mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 3.9% compared from a year ago, according to the lates Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for February 2022, released last week. Compared to January 2022, applications decreased by 1%, which does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns, according to the report. Key findings: MBA estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 791,000 units in February 2022, based on data from the BAS. The new home sales estimate is derived using mortgage application information from the BAS, as well as assumptions regarding market coverage and other factors. The seasonally adjusted estimate for February is a decrease of 3.7% from the January pace of 821,000 units. On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimates that there were 66,000 new home sales in February 2022, unchanged from the new home sales level in January. By product type, conventional loans composed 76.9% of loan applications, FHA loans composed 12.9%, RHS/USDA loans composed 0.3% and VA loans composed 9.9%. The average loan size of new homes increased from $426,954 in January to $432,359 in February. The takeaway: “New home purchase activity slowed in February, as for-sale inventories remained tight, and mortgage rates increased to their highest levels since 2019. February is typically the start of the spring home buying season, but applications to purchase a new home were down on a monthly and annual basis,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. “MBA estimates that new home sales declined for the third consecutive month, hitting the lowest sales pace in seven months at 791,000 units. Over the last three months, mortgage rates have increased over 70 basis points, and combined with elevated sales prices, that is putting a weight on purchase activity. The decline in activity was also consistent with somewhat weaker homebuilder sentiment and increased uncertainty for the industry as the crisis in Ukraine has worsened the situation for building material prices and availability.” For more information on MBA’s Builder Application Survey, click here.  The post February New-Home Purchase Mortgage Applications Decreased 3.9% appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaMar 21st, 2022

Ottawa Bancorp, Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2021 Results

OTTAWA, Ill., Oct. 29, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Ottawa Bancorp, Inc. (the "Company") (OTCQX:OTTW), the holding company for OSB Community Bank (the "Bank"), announced net income of $0.8 million, or $0.29 per basic and diluted common share for the three months ended September 30, 2021, compared to net income of $0.8 million, or $0.27 per basic and diluted common share, for the three months ended September 30, 2020. For the nine months ended September 30, 2021, the Company announced net income of $2.1 million, or $0.76 per basic and $0.75 per diluted common share, compared to net income of $1.6 million, or $0.55 per basic and diluted common share, for the nine months ended September 30, 2020. During the third quarter of 2021, the Company experienced growth in its deposit portfolio as deposits grew to $273.7 million at September 30, 2021. Loan demand slowed during the quarter which resulted in increase in the securities portfolio, which grew to $29.5 million at September 30, 2021. Total assets increased to $343.2 million at September 30, 2021. The loan portfolio, net of allowance, was $271.9 million at September 30, 2021 compared to $255.1 million at December 31, 2020. Non-performing loans increased to $1.6 million at September 30, 2021 from $1.3 million at December 31, 2020 resulting in the ratio of non-performing loans to gross loans increasing to 0.57% at September 30, 2021 from 0.51% at December 31, 2020. Additionally, through September 30, 2021, the Company has repurchased a total of 628,585 shares of its common stock at an average price of $13.14 per share as part of the four stock repurchase programs approved by the Company's Board since 2016. Craig Hepner, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, said, "I am very pleased with the Company's performance in the third quarter. Even though we realized a slight decline in overall loan balances, organic deposit growth remained strong, and we continued to lower our overall cost of funds which in turn resulted in continued growth in net earnings. In addition, we continued to have success with our on-going stock repurchase plan in the third quarter, and we continued to pay a healthy quarterly cash dividend as part of our prudent approach to capital management." "As previously disclosed, we completed our conversion from a federal savings bank to an Illinois state-chartered commercial bank during the third quarter, and in conjunction with that conversion, the name of the Bank was changed to OSB Community Bank. We believe that the charter conversion best positions the Bank to compete in the markets we serve and to further execute on our business strategy going forward. We are proud of our Ottawa Savings Bank heritage and look forward to continuing to serve the financial needs of our customers and communities as OSB Community Bank." said Mr. Hepner. Comparison of Results of Operations for the Three Months Ended September 30, 2021 and September 30, 2020 Net income for the three months ended September 30, 2021 was $0.8 million compared to net income of $0.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2020. Total interest and dividend income was $3.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2021 as compared to $3.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2020. Interest expense was $0.2 million lower during the three months ended September 30, 2021 than during the corresponding period in 2020. In addition, no provision for loan losses was taken during the three months ended September 30, 2021 as compared to a provision for loan losses of $0.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2020. As a result of the continuing decline in the consumer and purchased auto loan portfolios, several qualitative factors in the allowance calculation were adjusted positively which led to no provision being taken during the quarter. Net interest income after provision for loan losses was $2.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2021 as compared to $2.4 million for the three months ended September 30, 2020. Total other income was $0.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2021 compared to $1.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2020. Total other expenses remained flat at $2.4 million for the three months ended September 30, 2021 as compared to the three months ended September 30, 2020.     Net interest income (before provision for loan losses) increased by $0.3 million, or 13.8%, to $2.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2021, compared to $2.5 million for the three months ended September 30, 2020. Interest and dividend income grew by $0.1 million between the periods as a result of an increase in the average balance of interest-earning assets of $30.2 million. The yield on interest-earning assets decreased to 4.00% for the three months ended September 30, 2021 compared to 4.21% for the three months ended September 30, 2020. This decrease was offset by the growth in earning assets. As a result, interest and dividend income increased by $0.1 million. Interest expense fell by $0.2 million as a result of a 41 basis point decline in the cost of funds to .53% for the three months ended September 30, 2021 from 0.94% for the three months ended September 30, 2020. The net interest margin increased by 10 basis points during the three months ended September 30, 2021 to 3.55% from 3.45% during the three months ended September 30, 2020. The Company recorded no provision for loan losses for the three-month period ended September 30, 2021 as compared to a $0.1 million provision for loan losses for the three months ended September 30, 2020. The allowance for loan and lease losses was $3.6 million, or 1.31% of total gross loans at September 30, 2021 compared to $3.5 million, or 1.34% of gross loans, at September 30, 2020. Net recoveries during the third quarter of 2021 were ($11,838) compared to ($41,587) during the third quarter of 2020. General allocation of reserves were higher at September 30, 2021, when compared to September 30, 2020, primarily due to the balances in most loan categories increasing during the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. With the consumer and purchased auto loan portfolios declining, several qualitative factors for the allowance calculation were adjusted positively which led to no provision being taken in third quarter of 2021. With non-performing loans decreasing to $1.6 million as of September 30, 2021 from $1.8 million as of September 30, 2020, the necessary reserves on non-performing loans as of September 30, 2021 were approximately $43,000 lower than they were as of September 30, 2020 due to the improvement of some credits which necessitated lower or no specific allocation of reserves. Total other income was $0.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2021 as compared to $1.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2020. Mortgage originations for the one-to-four family residential loan category were lower for the three months ended September 30, 2021, thus, the gain on sale of loans decreased by $0.2 million and loan origination and servicing income decreased by $0.1 million. Additionally, origination of mortgage servicing rights, net of amortization, were lower in the current period. Total other expense was $2.4 million for both the three months ended September 30, 2021 and September 30, 2020.   Salaries and employee benefits increased $0.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2021 due to the higher commissions paid to mortgage loan originators and overtime paid to support staff to process the loan application volume during the period. These increases were partially offset by small decreases in several expense categories. The Company recorded income tax expense of approximately $0.3 million for both the three-months ended September 30, 2021 and 2020. Comparison of Results of Operations for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2021 and September 30, 2020 Net income was $2.1 million for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2021 compared to $1.6 million for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2020 representing an increase of 31.4%.     Net interest income increased by $0.9 million, or 12.3%, to $8.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2021, from $7.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2020. Interest and dividend income increased $0.1 million, or 1.2%, primarily due to an increase of $14.0 million in average earning assets which increased to $303.7 million from $289.7 million. This increase in interest-earning assets added approximately $0.5 million in revenue from volume which was slightly offset by a 14 basis point reduction in the average yield on assets, which declined to 4.08% for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 compared to 4.22% for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and resulted in a decline of $0.4 million in interest income due to rate. Interest expense decreased $0.8 million as the average cost of funds decreased by 48 basis points to 0.63% for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 from 1.11% for the nine months ended September 30, 2020. Slightly offsetting this decrease in the cost of funds was an increase of $15.8 million in average interest-bearing liabilities. Overall, interest expense decreased by $0.8 million to $1.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 as compared to $2.0 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2020. The net interest margin increased by 23 basis points, or 6.5%, during the nine months ended September 30, 2021 to 3.55% from 3.32% for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 as the lower rates had a more positive impact on the cost of interest-bearing liabilities than on the yield on the interest-earning asset portfolio. The volume was also favorable as total interest earning assets increased. We recorded a provision for loan losses of $0.1 million for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2021 as compared to $0.7 million for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2020. The allowance for loan losses was $3.6 million, or 1.31% of total gross loans at September 30, 2021 compared to $3.5 million, or 1.34% of gross loans, at September 30, 2020. Net recoveries during the first nine months of 2021 were approximately ($10,000) compared to ($0.1 million) during the first nine months of 2020. General allocation of reserves were higher at September 30, 2021 when compared to September 30, 2020, primarily due to the balances in most loan categories increasing during the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. With the consumer and purchased auto loan portfolios declining, several qualitative factors for the allowance calculation were adjusted positively which led to no provision being taken during the third quarter of 2021. With non-performing loans decreasing to $1.6 million as of September 30, 2021 from $1.8 million as of September 30, 2020, the necessary reserves on non-performing loans as of September 30, 2021 were approximately $43,000 lower than they were as of September 30, 2020 due to the improvement of some credits which resulted in lower or no specific allocation of reserves. Total other income was $2.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 as compared to $2.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2020. Due to decreased levels of originations in the one to four family residential loan category, gain on sale of loans decreased by $0.2 million and loan origination and servicing income remained comparable. There was a slight decrease in various other categories of $0.1 million which added to the decline. Total other expense increased $0.3 million, or 4.8%, to $7.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2021, as compared to $6.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2020.  The increase was primarily due to increases in salaries and employee benefits of $0.4 million and an increase in data processing costs of $0.1 million. These increases were slightly offset by a decrease of $0.1 million in other expense and a $0.1 million decrease in several other expense categories. The increase related to salaries and employee benefits was due to the commissions paid to loan originators pertaining to the elevated levels of loan originations and overtime for staff to process the loan applications. We recorded income tax expense of approximately $0.8 million for the nine-month periods ended September 30, 2021 as compared to $0.6 million for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2020. Comparison of Financial Condition at September 30, 2021 and December 31, 2020 Total consolidated assets as of September 30, 2021 were $343.2 million, an increase of $35.6 million, or 11.6%, from $307.6 million at December 31, 2020.  The increase was primarily due to an increase of $12.1 million in federal funds sold, a $16.8 million increase in the net loan portfolio, an increase in securities available for sale of $10.8 million and a $0.7 million increase in other assets. Various other asset categories increased by $0.2 million. These increases were partially offset by a decrease in total cash and cash equivalents of $2.0 million and a decrease in time deposits of $3.0 million. Cash and cash equivalents decreased $2.0 million, or 19.1%, to $8.4 million at September 30, 2021 from $10.4 million at December 31, 2020. The decrease in cash and cash equivalents was primarily the result of cash used in investing activities of $37.3 million exceeding cash provided from operating activities of $1.2 million and cash provided by financing activities of $34.8 million. Securities available for sale increased $10.8 million, or 57.7%, to $29.5 million at September 30, 2021 from $18.7 million at December 31, 2020, as new securities purchases exceeded paydowns, calls and maturities. Net loans increased $16.8 million, or 6.6%, to $271.9 million at September 30, 2021 compared to $255.1 million at December 31, 2020 primarily as a result of a $16.0 million increase in one-to-four family loans, an increase of $4.1 million in multi-family loans and an increase of $5.1 million in non-residential real estate loans. The increases were offset by a $3.4 million decrease in consumer direct loans, a $1.5 million decrease in commercial loans and a $3.5 million decrease in purchased auto loans. Additionally, the allowance for loan losses grew by $0.2 million. Total deposits increased $37.6 million, or 15.9%, to $273.7 million at September 30, 2021 from $236.1 million at December 31, 2020. For the nine months ended September 30, 2021, certificates of deposit increased by $8.6 million, savings accounts increased by $2.1 million, non-interest bearing checking accounts increased by $3.6 million, interest-bearing checking accounts increased by $20.5 million and money market accounts increased by $2.8 million as compared to December 31, 2020. FHLB advances decreased $1.0 million, or 5.8%, to $16.5 million at September 30, 2021 compared to $17.5 million at December 31, 2020. Stockholders' equity decreased $0.8 million, or 1.7%, to $47.4 million at September 30, 2021 from $48.2 million at December 31, 2020. The decrease reflects $1.0 million used to repurchase and cancel 68,833 outstanding shares of Company common stock, an increase of $0.5 million related to the cash obligation for ESOP shares, a decrease of $0.1 million in other comprehensive income due to a decrease in fair value of securities available for sale and $1.5 million in cash dividends. The decreases were partially offset by net income of $2.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 and the proceeds from equity incentive plan shares issued and the allocation of ESOP shares totaling $0.2 million. About Ottawa Bancorp, Inc. Ottawa Bancorp, Inc. is the holding company for OSB Community Bank which provides various financial services to individual and corporate customers in the United States. The Bank offers various deposit accounts, including checking, money market, regular savings, club savings, certificates of deposit and various retirement accounts. Its loan portfolio includes one-to-four family residential mortgage, multi-family and non-residential real estate, commercial and construction loans as well as auto loans and home equity lines of credit. OSB Community Bank was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Ottawa, Illinois. For more information about the Company and the Bank, please visit www.myosb.bank.  Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This news release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Statements in this release that are not strictly historical are forward-looking and are based upon current expectations that may differ materially from actual results. These forward-looking statements, identified by words such as "will," "expected," "believe," and "prospects," involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by the statements made herein. These risks and uncertainties involve, among other things, general economic trends and changes in interest rates, increased competition, changes in consumer demand for financial services, the possibility of unforeseen events affecting the industry generally, the uncertainties associated with newly developed or acquired operations, market disruptions and the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the local and national economic environment, on our customers and on our operations as well as any changes to federal, state and local government laws, regulations and orders in connection with the pandemic. Ottawa Bancorp, Inc. undertakes no obligation to release revisions to these forward-looking statements publicly to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unforeseen events, except as required under applicable law.  Ottawa Bancorp, Inc. & Subsidiary Consolidated Balance Sheets September 30, 2021 and December 31, 2020 (Unaudited)   September 30,   December 31,     2021       2020           Assets       Cash and due from banks $ 5,594,003     $ 4,793,872   Interest bearing deposits   2,797,761       5,581,139   Total cash and cash equivalents   8,391,764       10,375,011   Time deposits   250,000       3,232,500   Federal funds sold   15,617,000       3,486,000   Securities available for sale   29,499,890       18,711,631   Loans, net of allowance for loan losses of $3,613,612 and $3,497,150       at September 30, 2021 and December 31, 2020, respectively   271,891,789       255,103,054   Premises and equipment, net   6,371,860       6,312,256   Accrued interest receivable   956,172       972,602   Foreclosed Real Estate   122,265       107,100   Deferred tax assets   1,765,808       1,666,339   Cash value of life insurance   2,638,767       2,603,046   Goodwill   649,869       649,869   Core deposit intangible   103,493       131,996   Other assets   4,967,057       4,234,003   Total assets $ 343,225,734     $ 307,585,407   Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity       Liabilities       Deposits:       Non-interest bearing $ 21,880,019     $ 18,285,211   Interest bearing   251,800,085       217,774,806   Total deposits.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaOct 30th, 2021

Key Events This Very Busy Week: Earnings Deluge, Central Banks, GDP And Much More

Key Events This Very Busy Week: Earnings Deluge, Central Banks, GDP And Much More While the FOMC enters its quiet period ahead of next week's taper announcement, it's still set to be a bumper week ahead for markets. Amid silence from FOMC speakers, we get decisions from the ECB and the Bank of Japan (both Thursday). As DB's Jim Reid notes, inflation will obviously remain in the spotlight too as we get the October flash estimate for the Euro Area (Friday) with some regional numbers like German (Thursday) before. In addition, the Q3 earnings season will ramp up further, with 165 companies in the S&P 500 reporting, including Facebook (today), Microsoft, and Alphabet (both tomorrow), and Apple and Amazon (Thursday). Elsewhere, the UK government will be announcing their latest budget and spending review (Wednesday), Covid will remain in the headlines in light of the growing number of cases in many countries, and we’ll get the first look at Q3 GDP growth in the US (Thursday) and the Euro Area (Friday). Starting with those central bank meetings, we’re about to enter a couple of important weeks with the ECB and BoJ meeting this week, before the Fed and the BoE follow the week after. Market anticipation is much higher for the latter two though. So by comparison, the ECB and the BoJ are likely to be somewhat quieter, and DB's European economists write in their preview that this Governing Council meeting is likely to be a staging ground ahead of wide-ranging policy decisions in December, and will therefore be about tone and expectations management. One thing to keep an eye on in particular will be what is said about the recent surge in natural gas prices, as well as if ECB President Lagarde challenges the market pricing on liftoff as inconsistent with their inflation forecasts and new rates guidance. 5yr5yr Euro inflation swaps hit 2% for the first time on Friday so if the market is to be believed the ECB has achieved long-term success in hitting its mandate. With regards to the meeting, there’ll be more action in December where economists’ baseline is that there’ll be confirmation that PEPP purchases will end in March 2022. Speaking of inflation, it will remain heavily in focus for markets over the week ahead, with recent days having seen investor expectations of future inflation rise to fresh multi-year highs. This week one of the main highlights will be the flash Euro Area CPI reading for October, which is out on Friday. Last month, CPI rose to 3.4%, which is the highest inflation has been since 2008, and this time economists are expecting a further increase in the measure to 3.8%. However, their latest forecast update expects that we’ll see the peak of 3.9% in November, before inflation starts to head back down again (it won't be the first time economists have been dead wrong about inflation being transitory). The other main data highlight will come from the Q3 GDP figures, with releases for both the US and the Euro Area. For the US on Thursday the Atlanta Fed tracker has now hit a low of only +0.53%. DB is at 2.3% with consensus at 2.8%. On to the main event this week, earnings season really ramps up in the next five days with the highlights including some of the megacap tech firms, and a total of 165 companies in the S&P 500 will be reporting. Among the firms to watch out for include Facebook today; tomorrow, we’ll hear from Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Texas Instruments, UPS, General Electric, UBS and Twitter. On Wednesday, releases will include Thermo Fisher Scientific, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Boeing, General Motors, Santander and Ford. Thursday then sees reports from Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Comcast, Merck, Royal Dutch Shell, Linde, Volkswagen, Starbucks, Sanofi, Caterpillar, Lloyds Banking Group and Samsung. Finally on Friday, we’ll hear from ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Charter Communications, Daimler, BNP Paribas, Aon and NatWest Group. In the UK, the main highlight next week will be the government’s Autumn Budget on Wednesday, with the Office for Budget Responsibility also set to release their latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook alongside that. In addition to the budget, the government will also be outlining the latest Spending Review, which will cover public spending priorities over the next 3 years. DB's UK economists expect that 2021-22 borrowing is expected to be revised down by £60bn, and they expect day-to-day spending will follow the path set out at the Spring Budget. They’re also expecting Chancellor Sunak will outline new fiscal rules. Finally, the pandemic is gaining increasing attention from investors again, with a number of countries having moved to toughen up restrictions in light of rising cases. This week, something to look out for will be the US FDA’s advisory committee meeting tomorrow, where they’ll be discussing Pfizer’s request for an emergency use authorization for its vaccine on 5-11 year olds. The CDC’s advisory committee is then holding a meeting on November 2 and 3 the following week, and the White House have said that if it’s authorised then the vaccine would be made available at over 25,000 paediatricians’ offices and other primary care sites, as well as in pharmacies, and school and community-based clinics. The full day by day calendar is at the end as usual. Courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here is a day-by-day calendar of events Monday October 25 Data: Germany October Ifo business climate indicator, US September Chicago Fed national activity index, October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity Central Banks: BoE’s Tenreyro speaks Earnings: Facebook, HSBC Tuesday October 26 Data: US August FHFA house price index, September new home sales, October Conference Board consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index Central Banks: ECB’s Villeroy speaks Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Texas Instruments, UPS, General Electric, UBS, Twitter Other: FDA Advisory Committee meeting to discuss emergency use authorization of Pfizer vaccine to 5-11 year olds Wednesday October 27 Data: Germany November GfK consumer confidence, France October consumer confidence, Euro Area September M3 money supply, US preliminary September wholesale inventories, durable goods orders, core capital goods orders Central Banks: Monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Canada and Central Bank of Brazil Earnings: Thermo Fisher Scientific, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Boeing, General Motors, Santander, Ford Politics: UK government announces Autumn Budget and Spending Review Thursday October 28 Data: Japan September retail sales, Germany October unemployment change, preliminary October CPI, Italy October consumer confidence, Euro Area final October consumer confidence, US weekly initial jobless claims, advance Q3 GDP, September pending home sales, October Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity Central Banks: Monetary policy decisions from the ECB and Bank of Japan Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Comcast, Merck, Royal Dutch Shell, Linde, Volkswagen, Starbucks, Sanofi, Caterpillar, Lloyds Banking Group, Samsung Friday October 29 Data: Japan September jobless rate, preliminary September industrial production, preliminary Q3 GDP from Euro Area, Germany, France and Italy, preliminary October CPI from Euro Area, France and Italy, UK September mortgage approvals, Canada August GDP, US September personal spending, personal income, October MNI Chicago PMI, final October University of Michigan consumer sentiment index Earnings: ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Charter Communications, Daimler, BNP Paribas, Aon, NatWest Group Focusing on just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the durable goods report on Wednesday, the Q3 GDP release on Thursday, and the core PCE report on Friday. There are no speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, reflecting the FOMC blackout period. Monday, October 25 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, October (consensus 6.2, last 4.6) Tuesday, October 26 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, August (consensus +1.5%, last +1.4%) 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, August (GS +1.4%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.55%); We estimate the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose by 1.4% in August, following a 1.55% increase in July. 10:00 AM New home sales, September (GS +3.0%, consensus +2.2%, last +1.5%): We estimate that new home sales increased by 3.0% in September, reflecting an increase in mortgage applications. 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, October (GS 107.0, consensus 108.5, last 109.3): We estimate that the Conference Board consumer confidence index decreased by 2.3pt to 107.0 in October. Our forecast reflects weak signals from other consumer confidence measures. 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, October (consensus 5, last -3) Wednesday, October 27 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, September (GS -$88.0bn, consensus -$88.3bn, last -$88.2bn): We estimate that the goods trade deficit declined by $0.2bn to $88.0bn in September compared to the final August report, as shipping bottlenecks likely weighed on import volumes. 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, September preliminary (consensus +1.0%, last +1.2%): Retail inventories, September (consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%) 8:30 AM Durable goods orders, September preliminary (GS -1.5%, consensus -1.0%, last +1.8%): Durable goods orders ex-transportation, September preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%); Core capital goods orders, September preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.6%); Core capital goods shipments, September preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.8%): We estimate durable goods declined 1.5% in the preliminary September report, reflecting a pullback in commercial aircraft orders. We estimate firm gains in core capital goods orders (+0.7%) and core capital goods shipments (+0.7%), in part reflecting higher prices. Thursday, October 28 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 23 (GS 280k, consensus 290k, last 290k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 16 (consensus 2,410k, last 2,481k): We estimate initial jobless claims declined to 280k in the week ended October 23. 08:30 AM GDP, Q3 advance (GS +3.25%, consensus +2.8%, last +6.7%); Personal consumption, Q3 advance (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.8%, last +12.0%): We estimate GDP growth slowed to +3¼% annualized in the advance reading for Q3, following +6.7% in Q2. Our forecast reflects a sharp slowdown in consumption growth (to +0.8%) driven by the waning fiscal boost and a slower pace of reopening due to the Delta variant. We expect declines in business structures and equipment investment—the latter due to vehicle shortages—but expect a strong gain in the intellectual property category (+10%). We estimate a boost to GDP growth from inventories (+2.4pp qoq ar) but a drag from net trade (-0.6pp). 10:00 AM Pending home sales, September (GS -1.0%, consensus +0.5%, last +8.1%): We estimate that pending home sales declined 1.0% in September. 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, October (consensus +19, last +22) Friday, October 31 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q3 (GS +1.0%, consensus +0.9%, prior +0.7%): We estimate that the employment cost index rose 1.0% in Q3 (qoq sa), which would boost the year-on-year rate by five tenths to +3.4%. Labor shortages exerted upward pressure on wage growth in the third quarter, and the ECI measure is also running well below our composition-adjusted wage tracker (+3.7% in Q3). We also expect a pickup in ECI benefit growth after a soft sequential gain in Q2. Personal income, September (GS -0.5%, consensus -0.2%, last +0.2%); Personal spending, September (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.8%); PCE price index, September (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.40%); Core PCE price index, September (GS +0.13%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.32%); PCE price index (yoy), September (GS +4.36%, consensus +4.4%, last +4.26%); Core PCE price index (yoy), September (GS +3.62%, consensus +3.7%, last +3.62%): Based on details in the PPI, CPI, and import price reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose by 0.13% month-over-month in September, corresponding to a 3.62% increase from a year earlier. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased by 0.25% in September, corresponding to a 4.36% increase from a year earlier. We expect a 0.5% decrease in personal income and a 0.4% increase in personal spending in September. 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, October (GS 62.0, consensus 64.0, last 64.7): We estimate that the Chicago PMI pulled back by 2.7 points to 62.0 in October. Our forecast reflects mixed global industrial data and a possible sentiment drag from China power cuts. 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, October final (GS 71.4, consensus 71.4, last 71.4): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was unchanged at 71.4 in the final October reading. Source: Deutsche Bank, Goldman, Bank of America Tyler Durden Mon, 10/25/2021 - 09:26.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 25th, 2021

New Home Purchase Applications Down in September as Loan Size Rises

Mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 16.2% YoY. Compared to August 2021, applications decreased by 4%., according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for September 2021. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns. Key details: MBA predicts new single-family home sales were running at a […] The post New Home Purchase Applications Down in September as Loan Size Rises appeared first on RISMedia. Mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 16.2% YoY. Compared to August 2021, applications decreased by 4%., according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for September 2021. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns. Key details: MBA predicts new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 843,000 units in September 2021, based on data from the BAS. The new home sales estimate is derived using mortgage application information from the BAS, as well as assumptions regarding market coverage and other factors. The seasonally adjusted estimate for September shows a decrease of 3.5% from the August pace of 874,000 units. Unadjusted, MBA predicts there were 66,000 new home sales in September 2021—down 7% from 71,000 new home sales in August. By product type: – Conventional loans composed 75.1% of loan applications – FHA loans composed 13.9% – RHS/USDA loans composed 0.5% – VA loans composed 10.5% The average loan size of new homes increased from $406,922 in August to $408,522 in September. The takeaway: “New home sales purchase activity was weaker in September, and the average loan size rose to another record high, as homebuilders continue to grapple with rising building materials costs and labor shortages. The survey-high average loan size of $408,522 is evidence of higher sales prices from these higher costs, as well as the shift in new construction to larger, more expensive homes,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of Economic and Industry Forecasting, in a statement. “The estimated pace of new home sales decreased 3.5% last month after a strong August reading, but the two-month sales pace is at its strongest since January 2021.” The post New Home Purchase Applications Down in September as Loan Size Rises appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaOct 20th, 2021

New-Home Mortgage Applications for Purchases Down in August

Mortgage applications for new-home purchases decreased 17% compared to last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for August 2021. Compared to July 2021, applications increased by 9%. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns. The details: According to MBA estimates using data from the […] The post New-Home Mortgage Applications for Purchases Down in August appeared first on RISMedia. Mortgage applications for new-home purchases decreased 17% compared to last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for August 2021. Compared to July 2021, applications increased by 9%. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns. The details: According to MBA estimates using data from the BAS, new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 874,000 units in August 2021. The seasonally adjusted estimate for August shows an increase of 12.2% from July’s pace of 779,000 units. Unadjusted, MBA estimates there were 71,000 new-home sales in August 2021—an increase of 10.9% from 64,000 new-home sales in July. By product type: – Conventional Loans: 75.1% of loan applications – FHA Loans: 13.8% – RHS/USDA Loans: 0.6% – VA Loans: 10.5% The average loan size of new homes increased from $402,440 in July to $406,922 in August. The takeaway: “Mortgage applications to purchase new homes were down in August compared to 2020’s late summer surge, but both mortgage applications and MBA’s estimate of new-home sales jumped last month compared to July,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of Economic and Industry Forecasting, in a statement. “While the new-home construction market is a much smaller segment of the overall housing market, prospective buyers are increasingly turning to new homes because of the very low levels of existing homes for sale. Last month’s non-seasonally adjusted 9% increase in applications is an indication of greater than expected strength in demand, given that summer’s end is typically a slower period for new-home purchases.” “On a seasonally adjusted basis, new-home sales jumped 12% in August to 874,000 units, the fastest pace of sales since January 2021. This is consistent with improving home builder sentiment, as lumber prices continue to ease and demand for new homes remains strong. However, higher costs for materials, delivery delays and growing labor shortages continue to pose as challenges and are ultimately pushing sales prices higher,” added Kan. “The average loan size set another survey record at $406,922, and the share of loan applications for amounts greater than $400,000 accounted for over 40% of all applications, up from 28% a year ago.” The post New-Home Mortgage Applications for Purchases Down in August appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaSep 21st, 2021

Powell Is The New Arthur Burns, Not The New Paul Volcker

Powell Is The New Arthur Burns, Not The New Paul Volcker Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute, Last year, just as it was becoming increasingly clear that price inflation was mounting, Jerome Powell repeatedly denied there was any reason for concern. He called inflation "transitory." A few months later, he admitted it was not transitory, but denied it was "entrenched." Then, by late 2021, he admitted price inflation was getting out of control but still took no action of any consequence. Through it all, the Powell plan was repeated delay and opposition to any lessening of the Fed's established policy of ramming down interest rates again and again.  By spring 2022, however, it became impossible to pretend the previous six months of rising inflation rates never happened. In order to avoid looking utterly clueless, Powell was forced to endorse a 25 basis point increase to the target rate in March. But that amounted only to a 0.50 percent target rate. Then there was a 50 basis point increase in May, so the target rate rose to a meager 1 percent. After June's meeting, the target rate sat at 1.75 percent— a small fraction of the target rates we saw even during the years of monetary inflation and housing bubbles under Alan Greenspan.  The other side of this ultraeasy monetary policy is quantitative easing via the Fed's asset purchases of mortgage-based securities and government debt. These purchases were made with newly created money. Although Powell talked a big game about scaling back quantitative easing and reducing asset purchases, actual action was virtually nonexistent, and the Fed continued to print money for more asset purchases into March 2022. Since Powell finally announced the end of QE, the Fed's assets have decreased by a paltry 0.3 percent.  In other words, Powell's Fed is a Fed that does no more than is absolutely necessary to convince the public and policy makers that it is "doing something" about inflation. This is all short-term political posturing, and reflects that fact Powell—like Janet Yellen before him—is a politically minded technocrat who thinks in terms of using the central bank to protect the regime. The regime needs to look like it is "managing" the economy. But the regime also needs low interest rates to keep down interest payments on its massive $30 trillion debt. Powell is apparently more than happy to oblige on all fronts.  When it comes to actually doing something to address the core causes of price inflation, however, Powell seems uninterested. The plan right now is apparently to trust in hope that inflation can be "fixed" with some very minor tinkering with the federal funds rate and the Fed's portfolio. And then everything will be fine.  This mirrors the thinking of Arthur Burns and his Fed during the 1970s. While inflation mounted in the late 1960s and early 1970s, Burns—who became chairman in 1970—chose to avoid doing anything that might upset the inflation-fueled economy that had prevailed during the previous decade. The result was 12 percent inflation by the mid 1970s and an inflationary period that only came to an end after Chairman Paul Volcker finally had to take the anti-inflationary measures that Burns was unwilling to take.  With his current timid, weak, and prevaricating position on price inflation, Powell is positioning himself as the new Arthur Burns. He's only interested in doing just enough to get inflation rates down far enough to deflect political pressure from taxpayers, consumers, and others who suffer most from price inflation. It's nothing more than kicking the can down the road. That is Burns's legacy, and Powell is embracing it. Arthur Burns and the 1970s Fueled in part by big spending on the Vietnam War and on Lyndon Johnson's new welfare programs, Consumer Price Index inflation rose from 2 percent in the mid-1960s to 6.4 percent by February 1970. At that point, inflation was at the highest rate it had been since the Korean War. Burns, however, was not exactly one for bold action. Outgoing Fed chairman William McChesney Martin had already attempted to rein in inflation with a rising discount rate in 1968 and 1969. (The discount rate was the key policy rate at the time.) As a result, the discount rate hit 6 percent and a recession ensued. Burns was only too happy to bring rates back down as the 1969–70 recession subsided. Thanks to the short recession—and to the usual disinflationary factors such as growth in worker productivity—price inflation temporarily and moderately declined for the next two years. But by 1973, price inflation was surging again, and inflation hit 12 percent in November 1974. At the worst of it, the Fed raised the discount rate from 5 percent in 1973 to 8 percent in 1974. That looked like it "did the trick" because price inflation then fell back down to 5 percent by December 1976. But then price inflation soon began an upward surge that would not end until 1980. The CPI inflation rate rose from 5 percent in December 1976 to 8.9 percent two years later. It finally peaked in 1980 at 14.4 percent.  In other words, Burns's methods did not bring inflation under control for anything more than the short term. Nor did Burns's policies bring robust growth, as the country endured another recession from 1973 to 1975, and again in 1980. Stagflation set in. Meanwhile, the Burns Fed, much like the Powell Fed, sought to portray price inflation as a temporary matter related to short-term shocks. As noted by Ricardo Reis: [Burns] thought the inflation of 1973 was due to food and oil prices, and the further increase in 1974 was due again to budget deficits (even though those had been small). There was always a temporary shock to explain the persistent drift. Meltzer (2005, 160) describes this period as one when, among the Federal Reserve staff, "they gave special explanations—a relative price theory of the general price level—in effect claiming that the rise in the price level resulted from one-time, transitory changes that they did not expect to repeat." Arthur Burns would have been right at home in the Powell Fed, where inflation is to be blamed on temporary one-time events such as logistical supply shocks and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  After Burns, 20 Percent Interest Rates It was only after Paul Volcker was installed as the new Fed chairman in August 1979 that the Fed would take the drastic action that was needed.  In 1980, the Fed finally began to significantly depart from the policies of the previous decade. In February, the discount rate was raised to 13 percent, reflected in a federal funds rate that briefly reached 20 percent in late February. Not even that was enough. Inflation was still above 10 percent in mid-1981, and it was in November of that year that the Fed was finally leaving nothing to chance. From late 1980 to mid-1981, the discount rate hovered between 11 percent and 14 percent, while the federal funds rate rose to 20 percent in November 1980 and again in May 1981. Neither of these rates would not fall below 10 percent again until October 1982. By 1983, the inflation rate had fallen to 2.5 percent for the first time since 1967. By 1986, inflation had fallen to 1.2 percent.  The inflation cycle that had begun in the mid-1960s—"the Great Inflation"—was finally ended, although the regime certainly did not learn its lesson. The Reagan administration soon after embraced big spending and big deficits. The US committed to devaluing the dollar through the Plaza Accord in 1985. The Greenspan era began in 1987 with the promise of the Greenspan Put, promising endless monetary inflation in the name of propping up financial markets. The seeds of the next inflation were being planted.  Nonetheless, Arthur Burns serves as an important cautionary tale. Burns believed he could end price inflation through small-scale short-term tinkering that did not involve the unpleasant work of popping bubbles and liquidating malinvestments that had sprung up due to previous monetary inflation. This, combined with ending monetary inflation, is the only way that inflation can ultimately be "fixed."  Jerome Powell appears to subscribe to the Burnsian way of thinking, however. If his comments in congressional testimony and press conferences are any indication, Powell still believes it is possible to "solve" price inflation through extremely mild increases to key interest rates and through miniscule reductions in the scale of the Fed's portfolio.  It is entirely possible that this plan will give the appearance of "working." After all, the US economy is so dependent on easy money from the central bank at this point that it may not take much monetary tightening to bring on a short recession of the sort we saw repeatedly in the '70s. That's probably the direction we're headed in now.  The larger question, however, is whether or not Powell's ultramild tightening plans will be enough to truly end the bubble economy that we're now living in. After thirteen years of "unconventional" monetary policy, countless bubbles have been created and can only survive so long as the Fed keeps the easy money coming. There is no sign inside the Fed of the political will necessary to pop these bubbles. Chairman Powell claims that he admires Volcker, but it's increasingly clear Powell is really a student of Burns. Tyler Durden Fri, 07/01/2022 - 13:45.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytJul 1st, 2022

Mortgage Applications Continue to Increase

Mortgage applications continued to increase this week, rising 0.7% from one week earlier, according to latest data from the Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) for the week ending June 24, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of the Juneteenth holiday. Key findings from the survey: The… The post Mortgage Applications Continue to Increase appeared first on RISMedia. Mortgage applications continued to increase this week, rising 0.7% from one week earlier, according to latest data from the Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) for the week ending June 24, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of the Juneteenth holiday. Key findings from the survey: The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 20% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2% from the previous week and was 80% lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 21 % compared with the previous week and was 24 % lower than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 30.3% of total applications from 29.7% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 10.1% of total applications. The FHA share of total applications remained unchanged at 12.0% from the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 11.2% from 10.7% the week prior. The USDA share of total applications increased to 0.6% from 0.5 % the week prior. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) decreased to 5.84% from 5.98%, with points decreasing to 0.64 from 0.77 (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $647,200) decreased to 5.42% from 5.49%, with points decreasing to 0.28 from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA remained at 5.62%, with points decreasing to 1.15 from 1.18 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.06% from 5.05%, with points decreasing to 0.72 from 0.86 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 4.64% from 4.78%, with points decreasing to 0.72 from 0.84 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week. What the data means: “Mortgage rates continue to experience large swings. After increasing 65 basis points during the past three weeks, the 30-year fixed rate declined 14 basis points last week to 5.84%. Rates are still significantly higher than they were a year ago, when the 30-year fixed rate was at 3.2%,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The decline in mortgage rates led to a slight increase in refinancing, driven by an uptick in conventional loans. However, refinances are still 80% lower than a year ago and more than 60 % below the historical average.” Added Kan, “Overall purchase activity has weakened in recent months due to the quick jump in mortgage rates, high home prices, and growing economic uncertainty. Purchase applications were essentially flat last week but were supported by a 6% increase in government loans. The average purchase loan amount declined to $413,500, which is an ongoing downward trend since it hit a record $460,000 in March 2022.” The post Mortgage Applications Continue to Increase appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaJun 29th, 2022

Mortgage Applications Increase Amid Ongoing Rate Hikes

Despite rising mortgage rates, mortgage applications increased 4.2% from one week earlier, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 17, 2022. Here are the key points from the survey: The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.2%… The post Mortgage Applications Increase Amid Ongoing Rate Hikes appeared first on RISMedia. Despite rising mortgage rates, mortgage applications increased 4.2% from one week earlier, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 17, 2022. Here are the key points from the survey: The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3% from the previous week and was 77% lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 8% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6% compared with the previous week and was 10% lower than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 29.7% of total applications from 31.7% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 10.6% of total applications. The FHA share of total applications increased to 12.0% from 11.8% the week prior. The VA share of total applications decreased to 10.7% from 11.7% the week prior. The USDA share of total applications decreased to 0.5% from 0.6% the week prior. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.98% from 5.65%, with points increasing to 0.77 from 0.71 (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $647,200) increased to 5.49% from 5.25%, with points decreasing to 0.45 from 0.54 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 5.62% from 5.36%, with points increasing to 1.18 from 1.00 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.  The effective rate increased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.05% from 4.79%, with points increasing to 0.86 from 0.80 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 4.78% from 4.57%, with points increasing to 0.84 from 0.80 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week. What the data means: “Mortgage rates continued to surge last week, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumping 33 basis points to 5.98%—the highest since November 2008 and the largest single-week increase since 2009. All other loan types also increased by at least 20 basis points, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s 75-basis-point rate hike and commentary that more are coming to slow inflation,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Mortgage rates are now almost double what they were a year ago, leading to a 77% drop in refinance volume over the past 12 months.” Added Kan, “Purchase applications increased for the second straight week—driven mainly by conventional applications—and the ARM share of applications jumped back to over 10%. However, purchase activity was still 10% lower than a year ago, as inventory shortages and higher mortgage rates are dampening demand. The average loan size, at just over $420,000, is well below its $460,000 peak earlier this year and is potentially a sign that home price-growth is moderating.” The post Mortgage Applications Increase Amid Ongoing Rate Hikes appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaJun 23rd, 2022

Key Events This Busy Week: Central Bank Bonanza And A Critical Fed Rate Hike

Key Events This Busy Week: Central Bank Bonanza And A Critical Fed Rate Hike While the week starts slow on the data front - if not in the widespread liquidation gripping all markets - things pick up fast in the next few days, and this week is squarely and firmly all about the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. We go into it with the 2yr US note up +25bps on Friday and another c.+15bps this morning, which briefly re-inverted the 2s10s curve, in some clearly dramatic moves. The problem as we enter the next couple of Fed and ECB meetings - as DB's Jim Reid exmplains this morning - is that the central banks haven't quite been able to let go of forward guidance and are a little trapped. To recap, forward guidance has prevented the Fed and the ECB from hiking as early as they needed to, largely because both saw the need to gradually wind down asset purchases over several months first as promised. However this hasn't deterred them, and they have continued to try to flag their intentions to the market in advance with the Fed having previously all but signaled a 50bps this Wednesday, as well as in July, with the ECB now signalling 25bps in July and a strong possibility of 50bps in September. Of course, the market is already preparing for a "shock" with odds of a 75bps Wednesday rate hike rising as high as 44% this morning. And as Reid adds, "Providing clarity is admirable but in the wake of another shocking US CPI print on Friday, should a 75bps hike not be a serious consideration? It seems strange that most think policy needs to be restrictive but that it's going to take several meetings to get there from a still highly accommodative position." Indeed, without the recent Fed guidance, 75bps would be firmly on the table for Wednesday according to Reid who adds that "this is highly unlikely this week, but our economists think they could break cover from their own guidance and leave the door open for 75bps in July." DB Research has long been at the hawkish end on inflation and the Fed, and on Friday the bank's economists further raised their hiking expectations. In addition to 50bps at the next two meetings they have now added 50bps in September and November, before a return to 25bps in December (to 3.125%). They now see the peak at 4.125% in mid-2023. This is closer to the 5% view in the "Why the upcoming recession will be worse than expected" that David Folkerts-Landau, Peter Hooper and Jim Reid published back in April. If we do have a terminal Fed rate approaching a 5-handle it does raise the question as to where 10yr yields top out (the outcome will most likely be an inverted curve but it would likely mean the 4.5-5% range discussed in the note from April, mentioned above, is within reason). Moving on, it's not just the Fed this week as the BoE (Thursday) and the BoJ (Friday) will also meet. DB expects a +25bps hike this week and updated their terminal rate forecast from 1.75% to 2.5%. Staying in the UK, labor market data releases will be out tomorrow with retail sales on Friday. The week will conclude with a decision from the BoJ and how they address pressures from the yen hovering around a 20-year low, as well as the growing monetary policy divergence between Japan and other G7 economies. While not much will be announced this week, economists eventually expect a shortening or even the abandonment of yield curve control in H2 2023. In data terms we go back to the US for the main highlights, with PPI (tomorrow) and retail sales (Friday) the main events. China's key May indicators on Wednesday will also have global implications as we await industrial production, retail sales and property investment numbers. Elsewhere in the US, we have June's Philadelphia Fed business outlook (Wednesday), and May industrial production and capacity utilisation (Friday) numbers. April business inventories will be out on Wednesday and provide markets with a check on corporate stockpiling after Target's renewed warning last week. Finally, a slew of housing market data is due. This includes the June NAHB housing market index (Wednesday) and May building permits and housing starts (Thursday). The impact of rising mortgage rates will be in focus. In Europe, Germany's ZEW survey for June (tomorrow) is among the key data highlights. We will also see April industrial production and trade balance data for the Eurozone on Wednesday and Eurozone construction output and April trade balance data for Italy on Friday. ECB speakers will also be on the radar for investors as they tend to start to break the party line on the Monday after the ECB meeting. A lengthy line up includes ECB President Lagarde on Wednesday and six other speakers. Corutesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events: Monday June 13 Data: UK April monthly GDP, construction output, industrial and manufacturing production, index of services, trade balance, Italy Q1 unemployment rate Central banks: ECB's Holzmann, Simkus and Guindos speak Earnings: Oracle Tuesday June 14 Data: US May NFIB small business optimism, PPI, Japan April capacity utilisation, UK May jobless claims, April weekly earnings, ILO unemployment rate, Germany and Eurozone June ZEW survey, Canada April manufacturing sales Central banks: ECB's Schnabel speaks Wednesday June 15 Data: US June Empire manufacturing, NAHB housing market index, May retail sales, import price index, April business inventories, China May industrial production, retail sales, fixed assets, property investment, jobless rate, residential property sales, Japan April core machine orders, tertiary industry index, Italy April general government debt, Eurozone April industrial production, trade balance, Canada May housing starts, existing home sales Central banks: Fed decision, ECB's Lagarde, Nagel, De Cos, Panetta, Knot and Centeno speak Thursday June 16 Data: US June Philadelphia Fed business outlook, May building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, China May new home prices, Japan May trade balance, EU27 May new car registrations, Eurozone Q1 labour costs, Canada April wholesale trade sales Central banks: BoE decision, ECB's Visco, Villeroy, Panetta, Vasle, Guindos, Knot, Centeno, De Cos and Makhlouf speak Earnings: Adobe Friday June 17 Data: US May industrial and manufacturing production, capacity utilisation, leading index, UK May retail sales, Eurozone April construction output, Italy April trade balance, Canada May industrial production, raw materials price index Central banks: BoJ decision, Fed's Powell speaks * * * Focusing on just the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are retail sales on Wednesday and the Philly Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. The June FOMC meeting is this week, with the release of the statement at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. Chair Powell and Governor Waller also have speaking engagements scheduled later this week. Monday, June 13 There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 02:00 PM Fed Vice Chair Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard will discuss the Community Reinvestment Act in a pre-recorded video and an audience Q&A. Note the Vice Chair is not expected to discuss monetary policy given the FOMC blackout period. Tuesday, June 14 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, May (consensus 93.0, last 93.2) 08:30 AM PPI final demand, May (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.8%, last +0.5%): PPI ex-food and energy, May (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.4%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, May (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.6%): We estimate a 0.7% increase for PPI ex-food and energy and PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, reflecting slightly softer—but still elevated—core goods inflation that is more than offset by a reacceleration in services inflation (which was flat in April after averaging 0.9% mom over the three prior months). We estimate that headline PPI increased by 0.9% in May. Wednesday, June 15 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, June (consensus +3.0, last -11.6) 08:30 AM Retail sales, May (GS -0.5%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.9%); Retail sales ex-auto, May (GS flat, consensus +0.7%, last +0.6%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, May (GS -0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +1.0%); Core retail sales, May (GS -0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +1.0%): We estimate a 0.1% decline in May core retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; mom sa) following the 1.0% gain in April. Our forecast reflects tighter financial conditions, the continued goods-to-services demand shift, and some softening in high-frequency retail spending data for the month. We estimate a 0.5% drop in headline retail sales, reflecting sharply lower auto sales but higher auto prices and gasoline prices. 08:30 AM Import price index, May (consensus +1.1%, last flat): Export price index, May (consensus +1.3%, last +0.6%) 10:00 AM Business inventories, April (consensus +1.2%, last +2.0%) 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, June (consensus 68, last 69) 02:00 PM FOMC statement, June 14-15 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect that the FOMC is likely to respond to the firmer May CPI print and the rise in long-term inflation expectations with a resolutely hawkish message, in addition to the 50bp rate hike it is set to deliver. This should come across clearly in the statement, the economic projections, and the dots. Our updated probability-weighted scenario analysis of possible funds rate paths implies that even our revised weighted-average view is a bit less hawkish than market pricing, following the large upward move in market pricing last Friday. Thursday, June 16 08:30 AM Housing starts, May (GS -2.0%, consensus -1.0%, last -0.2%); Building permits, May (consensus -2.1%, last revised -3.0%): We estimate housing starts decreased by 2.0% in May, reflecting an increase in mortgage rates and a decrease in permits last month. 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, June (GS 9.0, consensus 5.0, last 2.6): We estimate that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rebounded by 6.4pt to +9.0 in June, reflecting the easing in China covid lockdowns but a continued drag from the Russia-Ukraine War. 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 11 (GS 200k, consensus 215k, last 229k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 4 (consensus 1,301k, last 1,306k): We estimate initial jobless claims declined to 200k in the week ended June 11. Friday, June 17 08:45 AM Fed Chair Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will make welcoming remarks at an inaugural conference on the international role of the dollar hosted by the Fed. Text is expected to be provided, while Q&A is not anticipated. Recall that on May 17, Chair Powell said, “…what we need to see is clear and convincing evidence that inflation pressures are coming down. If we don't see that, then we will have to consider to be more resolute. If we do see that, we can consider moving to a slower pace.” 09:15 AM Industrial production, May (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +1.1%); Manufacturing production, May (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.8%); Capacity utilization, May (GS 79.4%, consensus 79.2%, last 79.0%):  We estimate industrial production rose by 0.5% in May, reflecting strong electric utilities and mining production. We estimate capacity utilization increased to 79.4%. Source: DB, GS, BofA Tyler Durden Mon, 06/13/2022 - 10:17.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 13th, 2022

Lumber prices are tanking as rising interest rates means more Americans are finding it harder to buy a home

Lumber prices are in freefall as more and more Americans are being priced out of the housing market as mortgage rates soar. Lumber prices hit a nine month low as borrowing costs surge.Carolyn Cole/Getty Images Lumber prices are spiraling as red-hot house prices and the rising cost of mortgages is hitting affordability. Nearly 80% of National Housing Survey respondents reported now is the worst time to buy a home.  It's set to worsen as Americans foresee their financial situations deteriorating over the next year.  Lumber prices have been on a steep decline as a combination of rising interest rates, record-high inflation and a red-hot housing market translate into fewer people being able to afford to buy their own home. Prices are down about 50% year-to-date, recently dropping to their lowest point in 9 months trading below the $600-per-thousand-board-feet mark. This marks a stark turnaround from 12 months ago, when prices hit a record $1,733, as pent-up demand for construction and home improvement after the pandemic fueled a speculative frenzy.Why are lumber prices declining? The weakness in lumber is coming from a jump in the cost of mortgages, where the traditional 30-year fixed mortgage rose above 5% earlier this year, reaching its highest since 2009. Bearing in mind that the average 30-year rate was below 3% a year ago and house prices were lower, the prospects for anyone looking to buy a home have worsened. On top of that, consumers are dealing with soaring inflation that is racking up the price of everyday goods from food to gas. In the past week alone, mortgage applications fell 7%, slipping 21% year-over-year. At the same time, demand for mortgage refinances dropped 6% over the past week, down 75% year-over-year. Consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics even went as far as to say mortgage applications were in complete "meltdown."Never been a worse time to buy a home It doesn't look bright for lumber prices as fewer American consumers are able to afford to purchase a home. In a National Housing Survey conducted by the Federal National Mortgage Association, homebuyers expressed they are heavily feeling the pinch with 80% of consumers saying it is a bad time to buy a home in the current environment. This sentiment is backed by a recent research note by Bank of America which posted that housing affordability has collapsed near to 1987 and 2005 lows. "Consumers' expectations that their personal financial situations will worsen over the next year reached an all-time high in the May survey, and they expressed greater concern about job security," said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President, and Chief Economist."Further, respondents' pessimism regarding homebuying conditions carried forward into May, with the percentage of respondents reporting it's a bad time to buy a home hitting a new survey high. The share reporting that it's 'easy to get a mortgage' also decreased across almost all segments," he added. The outlook ahead Homebuyers will likely continue to be squeezed by a surge in mortgage rates, home prices, and inflation as a result, Duncan continued, signaling a grim outlook for lumber prices. Freddie Mac economist Len Kiefer this week said the US housing market is facing its worst period of decline since 2006. He stressed the decline will leak into the summer and a rebound is unlikely. An index of average national home prices rose by a record 21.1% year-on-year in March this year. Data for April from the National Association of Realtors shows the average price of a single-family home hit $391,200, the highest since records began in 1968 and double what it was just seven years ago.And now, with the Federal Reserve ending an era of easy monetary policy, lumber prices could be set to deteriorate even further, especially if an environment of higher interest rates destroys construction demand. Robert Dietz, National Association of Homebuilders chief economist, reinforced a pessimistic forecast for lumber when he previously told Insider: "The combination of higher home prices, rising construction costs and moderately higher interest rates will exacerbate housing affordability conditions and increasingly push prospective buyers out of the market in the coming months." Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJun 11th, 2022

The US housing market is seeing its worst contraction since 2006 as mortgage applications crumble, says Freddie Mac economist

Higher interest rates are having a knock-on effect on American homeownership as rising mortgage rates and house prices reduce buyer affordability. Mortgage applications are in a "meltdown" as borrowing costs surge.Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images The US housing market is entering its worst period of decline since 2006, before the subprime crisis.  A Freddie Mac economist said mortgage applications will see a steep drop over the summer.  Higher interest rates and home prices are destroying affordability.  An already punctured US housing market is set to deteriorate to levels witnessed in 2006, a Freddie Mac economist tweeted Thursday. "The U.S. housing market is at the beginning stages of the most significant contraction in activity since 2006. It hasn't shown up in many data series yet, but mortgage applications are pointing to a large decline over summer. Purchase apps down 40% from seasonally adjusted peak," Len Kiefer said. He added that during the coronavirus pandemic, mortgage applications also dramatically fell, but they picked back up shortly after. That situation is unlikely in the current state of the US economy. "During COVID in spring of 2020, applications also fell 40% but came roaring back in short order," Kiefer said. "Such a rebound is unlikely in the current environment," he added. It largely boils down to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to tame soaring inflation. As consumer prices surge, the Fed has deployed more aggressive monetary policy, lifting the benchmark interest rate to 0.5 percentage points last month in its first double-sized rate hike and is set for a series of similar-sized increases this year.That, in turn, has subsequently priced out potential homebuyers, as higher home prices and escalating mortgage rates reduce buyer affordability. And with the US economy predicted to enter a recession in the next year, and inflation at a forty-year high, American homeownership is likely to get harder.The National Association of Realtors has said housing affordability tumbled a record 29% over the last year - the steepest annual decline on record - as mortgage rates and housing prices shoot upwards. One economist even said US mortgage applications are in "meltdown" as borrowing costs soar. In the week leading up to June, the Mortgage Bankers Association said that applications for new purchases fell at a 52% annualized rate, compared to the previous three months. "A meltdown, in other words," Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson said. A separate survey echoed gloomy buyer sentiment and recorded that about 80% of respondents say it's never been a worse time to buy a home."Consumers' expectations that their personal financial situations will worsen over the next year reached an all-time high in the May survey, and they expressed greater concern about job security," Doug Duncan, senior vice president, and chief economist at Fannie Mae, said in a statement.   Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJun 10th, 2022

US mortgage applications are in "meltdown" and the threat to house prices is growing, an economist says

Mortgage applications in the US are falling off a cliff as interest rates shoot higher, posing a danger to sky-high house prices. Mortgage applications have tumbled as interest rates have risen.SAUL LOEB/Getty Images US mortgage applications are in "meltdown", according to an economist, and the threat to house prices is growing. The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of applications tumbled again last week and has fallen dramatically since January. Pantheon Macroeconomics said the chances of a "short period of clear declines" in home prices are growing. US mortgage applications are in "meltdown" as borrowing costs shoot upwards, and the threat to house prices is growing, according to the consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics.The Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday that applications for new purchases tumbled again in the week to June 3, continuing a months-long downtrend.The MBA's index which measures applications for new purchases tumbled to 208.2 from 224.1 a week earlier, according to Bloomberg data. It has dropped by more than a third since January, when it stood above 310."In the three months to May, applications fell at a 52% annualized rate, compared to the previous three months," Pantheon's chief economist Ian Shepherdson said in a note earlier this week."A meltdown, in other words."Americans are applying for far fewer mortgages now that interest rates are rising as the Federal Reserve tries to tackle surging inflation. Meanwhile house prices have remained sky-high, making a new home unaffordable for many.The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a 13-year high of 5.53% at the start of May. The rate has since cooled to 5.4% as bond yields — which set the tone for mortgages — have fallen slightly.Shepherdson said the sharp drop in applications is likely to continue, given that interest rates are set to rise further, and poses a risk to US house prices.Pantheon Macro does not expect a drawn-out fall in prices, but Shepherdson said: "The chance a short period of clear declines in prices is increasing, primarily because new home inventory has shot higher."He said homebuilders have to sell houses to keep going, and so are likely to slash prices. That could in turn force those looking to sell their home to move more quickly, adding to the volume of properties for sale and weighing on prices.The most recent data shows US house prices have held up so far this year, however. The S&P Case-Shiller price index shot up to a record high of 294.5 in March, according to data released in May.Read more: Goldman Sachs' star economist lays out whether the US is heading for a recession and reveals what could trigger a rebound in the floundering stock market following the crashRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJun 9th, 2022

Mortgage Rates on the Rise Again

After little movement over the last couple of weeks, mortgage rates are on the rise again. According to the latest results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) from Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.23%, up from 5.09% the week earlier. Key findings: 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.23 percent with an average… The post Mortgage Rates on the Rise Again appeared first on RISMedia. After little movement over the last couple of weeks, mortgage rates are on the rise again. According to the latest results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) from Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.23%, up from 5.09% the week earlier. Key findings: 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.23 percent with an average 0.9 point as of June 9, 2022, up from last week when it averaged 5.09 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.96 percent. 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.38 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.32 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.23 percent. 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.12 percent with an average 0.3 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.04 percent. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.55 percent. What the experts are saying: “After little movement the last few weeks, mortgage rates rose again on the back of increased economic activity and incoming inflation data,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “The housing market is incredibly rate-sensitive, so as mortgage rates increase suddenly, demand again is pulling back. The material decline in purchase activity, combined with the rising supply of homes for sale, will cause a deceleration in price growth to more normal levels, providing some relief for buyers still interested in purchasing a home.” Realtor.com’s Senior Economist and Manager of Economic Research, George Ratiu commented, “The Freddie Mac fixed rate for a 30-year rebounded from the past three weeks of declines, rising 14 basis points to 5.23%. This rise comes in anticipation of Friday’s inflation data and mirrors the rebound in the 10-year Treasury, which crested 3.0% mid-week. Investors have their eyes on the Consumer Price Index, expecting to see continued gains but at a moderating pace. The data will be an important measure for the Federal Reserve at its meeting next week. While it is not the central bank’s preferred measure of inflation, it is another metric detailing the health of the economy. With consumers feeling the pain of higher prices, a pullback in spending could push gross domestic product into negative territory. Several indicators are already pointing to slowing activity in the second quarter. “Real estate markets are laboring under the weight of record-high prices and rising mortgage rates. Mortgage applications have been declining with both purchases and refinances seeing pullbacks in activity. Buyers of a median-price home are looking at a monthly mortgage payment that is 55% higher than it was a year ago, adding an extra $695 to their monthly expenses. Compounding these pressures, almost 20 states have average gasoline prices above $5 per gallon, pushing living expenses to new highs, especially as employers insist on squeezing workers back into offices. For many Americans looking for affordable pockets of housing, mid-sized cities remain a viable alternative, especially as the number of homes for sale has been on the rise, bringing fresh options. The overarching challenge is balancing the ability to find a well-priced home, which often means traveling farther away from city centers, with the potential need to commute to an office. It is up to companies to maintain flexibility for a workforce which is being squeezed from all directions at once, or risk losing employees. The economic outlook is highly dependent on the well-being of the American consumer,” Ratiu concluded. The post Mortgage Rates on the Rise Again appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaJun 9th, 2022

Key Events This Week: ECB And Inflation, A "Nightmare Scenario"

Key Events This Week: ECB And Inflation, A "Nightmare Scenario" While newsflow is set to take a backseat with the mid-summer sun rising, the fun and games in markets this week are heavily back ended according to DB's Jim Reid, as the highly anticipated ECB meeting on Thursday is followed by the even more important US CPI on Friday. The rest of the week is scattered with production and trade balance data, while Chinese aggregate financing data is expected at some point. The Fed are now on their pre-FOMC blackout so the attention will be firmly on the ECB this week. So let's preview the two main events. For the ECB, DB's European economists believe the ECB will confirm that APP net purchases will cease at the end of the month, paving the way for policy rate lift-off at the July meeting. They also expect the ECB to hike rates by 50 basis points at either the July or September meeting, with the risks skewed toward the latter, to accelerate the policy hiking cycle in light of growing inflationary pressures. Eventually, DB economists believe that hiking cycle will ultimately reach a 2% terminal rate next summer, some 50 basis points into restrictive territory. As prelude, next week watch for the staff's forecast to upgrade inflation to 2% in 2024, satisfying the criteria for lift-off. With all three lift-off conditions met, expect the statement language to upgrade rate guidance for the path of the hiking cycle. Meanwhile, the June meeting should also bring about the expiration of the TLTRO discount. According to Reid, there are two interesting things for the ECB to consider at the extreme end of the spectrum at the moment. Firstly German wages seem to be going higher. In a note on Friday, DB's Stefan Schneider updated earlier work on domestic wage pressures by highlighting that on Thursday night, the 700k professional cleaners in the country achieved a 10.9% pay rise. In addition, with the nationwide minimum wage legalization voted through on Friday, the lowest paid in this group will get a +12.6% rise from October. At the other end of the spectrum 10yr Italian BTPs hit 3.40% on Friday, up from 1.12% at the start of the year and as low as 2.85% intra-day the preceding Friday. To be sure, expectations are that the ECB will create tools to deal with Italy's funding issues (with the FT reporting as much today), but it is more likely to be reactive than proactive to ensure legal barriers to intervene are not crossed. However, as Reid puts it: the nightmare scenario we've all been hypothetically thinking about for years, if not decades, is here. Runaway German inflation at the same time as soaring Italian yields. The good news is that this should bring a lot more targeted intervention and a better-balanced policy response than in the last decade where negative rates and blanket QE was a one size fits all policy. High inflation will force the ECB to hike rates while managing the fall out on a more bespoke basis. It won't be easy, but it will likely be better balanced. Following on from the ECB, the next day brings the US CPI data (which we previewed here). Month-over-month CPI is expected to accelerate to 0.7% from last month’s 0.3% reading. The core measure stripping out food and energy is expected to print at 0.5%. Those figures would translate to 8.3% and 5.9% for the year-over-year measures, respectively (from 8.3% and 6.2% last month). Elsewhere, data will highlight production figures and the impact of the nascent tightening of financial conditions, with PMI, PPI, and industrial production figures due from a number of jurisdictions. Shock CPI print notwithstanding, the Fed policy path for the next two meetings appears to be locked in to 50 basis point hikes, but Fed officials have highlighted the importance of inflation readings to determine the path of policy thereafter. There is a growing consensus that month-over-month inflation readings will have to decelerate in order to slow hikes to 25 basis points come September. Some Fed officials are still considering ramping the pace up to 75 basis points if inflation doesn’t improve. None appear to be considering zero policy action in September. We expect that to change in the coming weeks. Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events Monday June 6 Data: Japan April household spending, China foreign reserves Tuesday June 7 Data: Japan April leading index, GDP, trade balance Germany April factory orders, UK S&P services and composite PMI, US trade balance Wednesday June 8 Data: China aggregate financing (between June 8 and June 15), trade balance, Germany industrial production, France trade balance, Italy retail sales, UK S&P construction PMI, Eurozone final 1Q GDP, US MBA mortgage applications, wholesale inventories Thursday June 9 Data: Japan May machine tool orders, PPI, China PPI, US initial jobless claims, continuing claims Central Banks: ECB monetary policy decision Friday June 10 Data: Spain CPI, Italy industrial production, Germany current account, US CPI, University of Michigan sentiment surveys Central Banks: ECB’s Holzmann speaks, BoE inflation attitudes survey * * * Finally, focusing on just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the CPI report on Friday. There are no speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, reflecting the FOMC blackout period for the upcoming meeting June 14-15. Monday, June 6 There are no major economic data releases scheduled. Tuesday, June 7 08:30 AM Trade Balance, April (GS -$92.0bn, consensus -$89.5bn, last -$109.8bn): We estimate that the trade deficit decreased by $17.8bn to $92.0bn in April, reflecting a decrease in imports and an increase in exports in the advanced goods report. Wednesday, June 8 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, April final (consensus +2.1%, last +2.1%) Thursday, June 9 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 4 (GS 195k, consensus 206k, last 200k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 28 (consensus 1,305k, last 1,309k): We estimate initial jobless claims edged down to 195k in the week ended June 4. Friday, June 10 08:30 AM CPI (mom), May (GS +0.73%, consensus +0.7%, last +0.3%); Core CPI (mom), May (GS +0.48%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.6%); CPI (yoy), May (GS +8.29%, consensus +8.3%, last +8.3%); Core CPI (yoy), May (GS +5.88%, consensus +5.9%, last +6.2%):  We estimate a 0.48% increase in May core CPI (mom sa), which would lower the year-on-year rate by three-tenths to 5.9%. Our forecast reflects a decline in apparel prices due to weaker-than-expected demand but strength elsewhere in the report. We expect higher prices for new and used cars and for auto parts related to the Ukraine-Russia war and China covid lockdowns. Within services, we believe the continued reopening of the economy further boosted prices of hotels and car insurance. We estimate rent increased by 0.50% and OER increased by 0.44%, reflecting slowing gains in our shelter tracker and an OER drag from imputed utilities. We estimate a 0.73% monthly increase in headline CPI, reflecting higher energy, grocery, and restaurant prices. 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, June preliminary (GS 56.0, consensus 58.3, last 58.4): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index decreased to 56.0 in the preliminary June reading. Source: DB, Goldman, BofA Tyler Durden Mon, 06/06/2022 - 09:57.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 6th, 2022

Factors to Note Ahead of NetApp"s (NTAP) Q4 Earnings Release

NetApp's (NTAP) fiscal fourth-quarter performance is likely to reflect strength in the Public Cloud Services and all-flash storage business NetApp NTAP is slated to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 earnings on Jun 1.The company projects non-GAAP earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter to be between $1.21 and $1.31 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.27 per share, suggesting an improvement of 8.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.The company expects net revenues in the range of $1.635-$1.735 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.68 billion, suggesting growth of 8.3% year over year.The company beat estimates in all of the last four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.7%, on average.Shares of NetApp have lost 5.6% of their value in the past year compared with the industry's decline of 8.6%.NetApp, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise  NetApp, Inc. price-eps-surprise | NetApp, Inc. Quote Factors to NoteRapid cloud migration and digital transformation endeavors by enterprises across the globe are driving demand for the company’s diversified portfolio of offerings. NetApp specializes in providing cloud services, systems and software to business organizations to help them optimally operate their applications from the data center to the cloud. The continuation of work from home and hybrid work innovation are other driving factors.Apart from these factors, NetApp’s strengthening go-to-market activities, various cloud collaborations and continued product innovation are likely to have acted as tailwinds.Synergies from the buyouts of CloudCheckr and Data Mechanics is likely to have acted as tailwinds. In the fiscal fourth quarter, NetApp acquired Fylamynt for an undisclosed financial terms.  Fylamynt provides CloudOps automation technology that allows clients to create, deploy and manage workflows across any cloud environment with minimal coding requirements. Fylamynt is slated to become part of NetApp’s Spot portfolio of products to automate its cloud operations infrastructure.In April 2022, NetApp also inked an agreement to acquire Instaclustr for undisclosed financial terms.Instaclustr provides open-source database, pipeline and workflow applications delivered as a service. The integration of Instaclustr’s fully-managed database and data pipeline services along with NTAP’s can storage and compute optimization capabilities will provide clients with a comprehensive Cloud Operations platform. Instaclustr will be a part of the company’s Spot by NetApp portfolio of solutions. The company concluded the takeover in May 2022.Coming to the segments, strength in the company’s object storage and all-flash business is expected to have contributed to the Hybrid Cloud segment’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. Software product revenues are likely to have gained from the favorable mix shift to the all-flash portfolio.For the fiscal fourth quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Hybrid Cloud segment’s revenues is pegged at $1.55 billion.Increasing clout of Spot by NetApp portfolio — which facilitates enterprises to make multi-cloud management easier and lower expenses — might have aided the Public Cloud services business. The company recently rolled out Spot Security, which enhances cloud infrastructure security by delivering continuous AI-powered security services. The higher uptake of Azure NetApp files, Cloud Volumes and Cloud Insights services are also likely to have driven the company’s Public Cloud services business.In the last reported quarter, Public Cloud Services recorded annualized recurring revenues (ARR) of $469 million, up 98% year over year and 21% quarter over quarter.For the fiscal fourth quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Public Service segment’s revenues is at $129 million.Incremental gains from an uptick in the company’s NetApp Astra solution and NetApp ONTAP data management software might have favored the top line.However, pandemic-induced supply chain headwinds and substantial increases in costs are major concerns. The company expects supply chain troubles to affect product revenues and product gross margins in the fiscal fourth quarter. The company expects gross margin to be 64% (negatively impacted by open market component purchases) and operating margin to be 22% in the to-be-reported quarter. NetApp noted that without recent supplier decommits, the operating margin in the current quarter could have been near 25%.What Our Model SaysAccording to the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.NetApp has an Earnings ESP of -0.09% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Stocks to ConsiderHere are some stocks that you may consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this season.Kroger KR has an Earnings ESP of +4.35% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Designer Brands (DBI) is set to release first-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Jun 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 23 cents per share, suggesting an increase of 92% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Shares of Designer Brands have decreased 9.4% in the past year.Veeva Systems VEEV has an Earnings ESP of +0.36% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.Veeva Systems is scheduled to release first-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Jun 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 92 cents per share, suggesting an increase of 1.1% from the prior-year quarter’s levels. Shares of VEEV have decreased 41% in the past year.Casey General Stores CASY has an Earnings ESP of +0.38% and a Zacks Rank of 3.Casey General Stores is scheduled to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Jun 7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.54 per share, up 37.5% from the year-ago quarter’s levels. Shares of CASY have declined 4.9% in the past year.Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar. 5 Stocks Set to Double Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2021. Previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%. Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report NetApp, Inc. (NTAP): Free Stock Analysis Report The Kroger Co. (KR): Free Stock Analysis Report Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY): Free Stock Analysis Report Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksMay 31st, 2022