Advertisements


Oil prices extend losses

Oil prices fell further on Thursday following a 3% drop in the previous session on concerns higher interest rates will slow the economy and put a dent in fuel demand......»»

Category: topSource: foxnewsJun 23rd, 2022

Futures Movers: Oil extends price losses into a second session as recession fears rise

Oil futures extend their losses into a second session on Thursday, with U.S. prices booking their lowest finish in more than six weeks as recession worries rise......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatchJun 23rd, 2022

Futures Rebound As Hopes Of Imminent Recession Spark "Bad News Is Good News" Reversal

Futures Rebound As Hopes Of Imminent Recession Spark "Bad News Is Good News" Reversal In a world where bad news is good news, and where the looming recession means an end to rate hikes and a start to easing, it didn't take algos long to bid stocks up as treasury yields tumbled after comments by Jerome Powell and dismal PMI data in Europe justified fears that a global downturn is now just a matter of when, not if. After initially sliding more than 1% late on Wednesday, futures rebounded and recovered all losses and were last trading near Wednesday's session highs, up 0.7% or 27 point to 3,790, while Nasdaq futs were up 0.9% at 11,375 as of 715am ET. 10Y yield initially dumped below 3.10% - near a two week low, after trading at 3.50% one week ago -  before bouncing modestly, while the Dollar pushed higher as the euro tumbled after after a series of very poor European PMI prints confirmed that Europe's runaway inflation is pushing the continent into a stagflationary recession, which in turn sent the yield on German 10-year bonds slumping as much as 21 basis points, poised for the biggest two-day decline since November 2011. US 10-year rates traded near a two-week low. In premarket trading, US-listed Chinese stocks climbed  as bullish sentiment around the group continues to grow amid calls from strategists and fund managers that Beijing’s regulatory crackdowns are easing. JPMorgan Asset Management became the latest to voice its support for Chinese tech shares, saying “the worst is over” when it comes to regulatory crackdowns. Here are some other notable premarket movers: KB Home (KBH US) shares climb 4.7% in premarket trading after the homebuilder reported earnings per share and revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. US-listed shares of Chinese electric-vehicle makers rallied in premarket trading after Chinese state television reported that the government may extend tax exemptions on electric-car purchases. Li Auto (LI US) +6%, Xpeng (XPEV US) +5.3% and Nio (NIO US) +2.6% in premarket trading. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rebounded in premarket trading as Bitcoin recovered to remain over the closely watched $20,000 level. Coinbase (COIN US) +3%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +3.7%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) +4.4%, Block (SQ US) +0.7%. EBay (EBAY US) shares decline 2.1% in premarket trading as Morgan Stanley assumed coverage of the stock with a recommendation of underweight and a price target of $36, the lowest on Wall Street. Energy companies slide in US premarket trading as oil eases anew amid concerns of slowing global growth. Exxon Mobil (XOM US) -1%, Chevron (CVX US) -1.1%, Imperial Petroleum (IMPP US) -3.1%, Camber Energy (CEI US) -2.4%. Westinghouse Air Brake (WAB US) and AGCO (AGCO US) shares may be in focus as Morgan Stanley cuts them to equal-weight and resumes coverage of Cummins (CMI US) at equal-weight in a note trimming its PTs across most of its machinery and construction coverage.   On Wednesday, in the first day of his Congressional testimony, Powell accepted that steep rate increases could trigger a US recession, and said the task of engineering a soft economic landing is “very challenging” (day two follows). Policy makers are taking drastic steps to cool inflation at a four-decade high and the Fed chair repeated his resolve to get consumer price growth back down to the 2% target. “Market optimism couldn’t survive Jerome Powell’s testimony yesterday, but most of the negative pricing is certainly done by now,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote. “The reaffirmation of the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation down and that recession is a risk are adding to growth worries, which is the dominant fear again,” said Esty Dwek, chief investment officer at Flowbank. Traders are now debating how far the Fed will stretch its rate cycle in the face of an economic downturn. Money markets indicate diminished odds the central bank will raise rates beyond year-end, and rising odds of a rate cut from May 2023. The Federal Reserve “is well served by keeping some hawkishness there,” Steven Major, global head of fixed income research at HSBC Holdings Plc, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Because if they appear that they’ve reached the peak, then financial conditions will loosen and the policy won’t work. So they need a couple more months of this.” European equities traded flat having erased earlier losses of more than 1%. Real estate, autos and banks are the weakest Stoxx 600 sectors; travel is a rare bright spot. European energy stocks slipped for a second session with crude prices under pressure as concerns over a global economic slowdown intensified. The Stoxx 600 Energy index falls as much as 1.9%; TotalEnergies and Shell the biggest drags on the index on Thursday, with wind- turbine firm Vestas and Italy’s Eni also slipping.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Aroundtown stock drops as much as 11% after being cut to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan, which also lowered its PT to EU3.6 from EU6 due to excessive downside exposure for the German landlord. Vantage Towers falls as much as 7.6% after Morgan Stanley cut the stock to equal-weight from overweight, saying the shares have outperformed despite challenges in its outlook. Saipem trims losses after declining as much as 21% following the announcement of a EU2b capital increase on Wednesday; Italy’s Consob warns of volatility in the stock when the rights issue starts. Rheinmetall falls as much as 6.3% after HSBC downgraded the German automotive and defense group to hold from buy due to it being temporarily held back by its automotive division Naked Wines slumps as much as 40% after the online wine merchant forecast fiscal 2023 sales of £345m-£375m. The midpoint of the guidance is ~10% lower than what Jefferies analysts had been expecting. Intertek falls as much as 4.1% after Deutsche Bank cuts the stock to sell, saying many structural trends that underpinned growth for testing and inspection companies are reversing. Eurofins gains as much as 4.2% on an upgrade to hold. Atos gains as much as 11% after a report that Thales has the support of the French state in its effort to buy French tech company’s cybersecurity business. Ubisoft rises as much as 2.5% before paring gains, as Deutsche Bank initiates coverage with a buy rating, saying there’s “good scope” to beat revenue and margins expectations for fiscal 2024 and 2025. As noted above, the latest let of European PMIs were dismal, dropping across the board and all (except the UK) missing expectations: Euro Area Composite PMI (June, Flash): 51.9, consensus 54.0, last 54.8. Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (June, Flash): 52.0,  consensus 53.8, last 54.6. Euro Area Services PMI (June, Flash): 52.8, consensus 55.5, last 56.1. Germany Composite PMI (June, Flash): 51.3, consensus 53.0, last 53.7. France Composite PMI (June, Flash): 52.8, consensus 55.9, last 57.0. UK Composite PMI (June, Flash): 53.1, consensus 52.4, last 53.1. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged higher, with an improving outlook in China offering support even as the prospect of a global downturn weighed on some export-reliant markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.2% with China’s internet giants and automakers contributing to the gains. South Korea and Taiwan, the two tech-heavy markets that have seen foreigners flee amid rising global rates, fell more than 1%. Traders digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Wednesday comments that steep rate increases could trigger a US recession. China stocks were the region’s best performers, extending a recent trend, as President Xi Jinping pledged to meet economic targets for the year.  Hong Kong stocks gained after a report that the city’s incoming leader is working on a strategy to reopen its borders. Japanese stocks were little changed. “We’re sort of in a bottoming out phase here in Asia, where China is going to eventually support us again,” Robeco Asia-Pacific Chief Investment Officer Arnout van Rijn said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “The rest of Asia, with its better macroeconomic policies and lower interest rates, should at least outperform a weaker global market.” The Fed’s recent rate hike and comments have been especially hard on growth shares, with a gauge of Asia’s tech stocks falling to its lowest level since September 2020. China’s stocks have outperformed the broader region amid hopes for continued fiscal and monetary support. Japanese equities struggled for direction as investors worried over Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on the risks of a recession. The Topix closed down les than 0.1% at 1,851.74, while the Nikkei advanced 0.1% to 26,171.25. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,295 rose and 775 fell, while 100 were unchanged. “We’re in a very difficult phase,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. “The market is still focused on what will happen to prices in the US and whether the economy can cope with a larger interest rate hike.”  Indian shares rose to mark their third day of gains in four after a retreat in crude oil prices eased concerns about vehicle demand in Asia’s third-biggest economy. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. and Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. were among the top gainers on the S&P BSE Sensex, which climbed 0.9% to close at 52,265.72 in Mumbai. The NSE Nifty 50 Index rose by an equal measure. Both indexes have risen for three of four sessions this week. All but two of the 19 sub-sector gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. advanced, led by auto companies.  Regional peers were mixed after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the risk of a recession. West Texas Intermediate sank toward $104 a barrel after closing at a six-week low on Wednesday. Tata Consultancy contributed the most to the Sensex’s gains, increasing 2.7%. Out of 30 shares in the index, 27 rose and 3 fell. In rates, Treasury futures traded above Wednesday’s highs after tracking steeper gains for bunds sparked by weaker-than-expected euro-zone growth data, before fading much of the move. US yields richer by 3bp-5bp across the curve led by belly, richening the 2s5s10s fly by 3.5bp on the day; 10-year richer by ~3bp at 3.125% vs 16bp slide for German 10-year, widening spread ot ~165bp. Elevated recession risk put German 10-year yields on track for their biggest decline in more than three months. US auctions include $18b 5-year TIPS reopening at 1pm ET; ahead of the sale 5-year breakeven inflation is ~2.75%, near lowest level since January. Focal points of US session include Fed Chair Powell’s second day of congressional testimony and manufacturing survey data. Bunds futures rally, trading over a 300 tick range in high volumes before stalling close to 148.00. Yield curves bull steepen aggressively. German 2y yields crater over 20bps near 0.82%, trading 10bps richer to gilts and ~15bps richer to USTs. Peripheral spreads widen with short-end Portugal underperforming. In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index rose 0.3% as the EUR tumbled on poor PMI data. The yen extended its rise as comments from an ex-policy official spurred bets that the Bank of Japan may intervene to halt the currency’s slide. Japan’s currency gained as much as 0.8% after Takehiko Nakao, the former head of foreign exchange policy at the finance ministry, said the possibility of the authorities intervening directly in foreign-exchange markets can’t be ruled out. Sterling eased against a broadly stronger dollar as a slide in global share prices prompted investors to sell riskier assets. Markets await UK PMI data, which is expected to show a drop in manufacturing and services sectors, adding to signs of a slowing economy. In commodities, oil dipped initially in early trading before paring the entire loss, Brent crude back above $111 a barrel. Most base metals are trade lower: LME copper drops ~2%, LME tin underperforms declining over 8%. Spot gold drifts lower near $1,830/oz. Bitcoin is firmer overall but continues to pivot the USD 20k mark and has struggled to gain any real traction during brief forays either side. Looking to the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the rest of the flash PMIs for June, along with the US weekly initial jobless claims, the Q1 current account balance, and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity for June. From central banks, Fed Chair Powell will be speaking before the House Financial Services Committee, the ECB will publish their Economic Bulletin, and we’ll hear from the ECB’s Nagel and Villeroy. Finally, EU leaders will be meeting in Brussels. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,755.75 STOXX Europe 600 down 1.2% to 401.04 MXAP up 0.1% to 156.60 MXAPJ up 0.2% to 519.03 Nikkei little changed at 26,171.25 Topix little changed at 1,851.74 Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 21,273.87 Shanghai Composite up 1.6% to 3,320.15 Sensex up 0.7% to 52,208.76 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,528.45 Kospi down 1.2% to 2,314.32 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.47% Euro down 0.6% to $1.0503 Brent Futures down 1.7% to $109.80/bbl Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,834.49 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.46% to 104.67 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Germany elevated the risk level in its national gas emergency plan to the second-highest “alarm” phase, following steep cuts in supplies from Russia. India’s central bank appears to have ramped up intervention in the forwards market to slow the rupee’s decline and preserve its hard-earned reserves. Russia faces yet another bond payment test this week, with just days remaining before it potentially slides into its first foreign default in a century. India’s central bank appears to have ramped up intervention in the forwards market to slow the rupee’s decline and preserve its hard-earned reserves. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive after risk appetite slightly improved from the uninspiring lead from Wall St where stocks were choppy as tailwinds from lower oil prices and softer yields were offset by recession fears. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in real estate and consumer stocks, while Manufacturing PMI data remained in a firm expansion. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with the index hampered by currency inflows. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were kept afloat with auto manufacturers lifted after China’s cabinet pledged to boost the auto industry, while markets also shrugged off initial cautiousness brought on by COVID concerns after Shenzhen required PCR tests for anyone entering a public venue. Top Asian News China's Shenzhen is to require PCR tests for anyone entering a public venue, according to Bloomberg. US State Department warned about reconsidering travel to China due to COVID lockdown risks, according to Reuters. Former Japanese FX chief Nakao said continuing with YCC has many negative effects and that it is clear monetary policy is playing a role in the weak JPY, according to Bloomberg. European bourses are pressured overall, but well off lows going into the US session, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%; pressure was seen post-PMIs which missed expectations and featured pessimistic internal commentary. The sectoral breakdown is mixed as such while individual movers are affected by numerous broker moves. Stateside, futures are now firmer on the session, ES +0.4%, having shrugged off the French/German/EZ flash-PMI induced risk move ahead of Powell's second day of testimony. Top European News Majority of economists expect the ECB to hike the deposit rate by 25bps in July and 50bps in September, while the Deposit Rate is seen at 0.75% at year-end (prev. 0.25%) and there is a median 34% (prev. 30%) chance of a recession in 12 months, according to a Reuters poll. Bulgarian Turmoil Deepens as Premier Loses Confidence Vote Norway Steps Up Action With First Half-Point Hike Since 2002 Hedge Fund Trader Shah Struck Cum-Ex Trades With DekaBank UK June Flash Services PMI 53.4; Est 52.9 FX Poor preliminary Eurozone PMIs pull rug from under Euro; EUR/USD sub-1.0500 at worst, EUR/JPY under 142.00 vs almost 144.00 peak and EUR/GBP probes 0.8600 from circa 0.8641. Buck benefits indirectly alongside Yen as risk aversion intensifies on heightened recession anxiety; DXY towards top end of 104.780-050 range, USD/JPY vice-versa between 136.25-135.12 parameters. Pound pares some declines with assistance of solid UK services PMI, Cable keeps tabs on 1.2200 handle. Franc makes way for rebounding Dollar, Loonie, Aussie and Kiwi bear brunt of ongoing losses in underlying commodities; USD/CHF back above 0.9650 from sub-0.9600, USD/CAD hovering under 1.3000, AUD/USD capped into 0.6900 and NZD/USD around 0.6250. Norwegian Crown underpinned by bigger than expected 50bp Norges Bank hike and loftier rate path with caveats, EUR/NOK pivots 10.4800 vs near 10.5300 peak and 10.4400 trough. Central Banks Norges Bank Key Policy Rate (June-MPR): 1.25% vs. Exp. 1.00% (Prev. 0.75%); points to a 25bps hike in August (interim meeting). Click here for full details, reaction and newsquawk analysis. Norges Bank Governor Bache says cannot rule out increasing rates by more than 25bps in future meetings.   NBH keeps its one-week deposit rate unchanged at 7.25% Fixed Income Bunds and OATs front-run latest broad and big bond bounce as PMI miss consensus by some distance. Gilts and US Treasuries tag along with a lag post-solid UK services PMI and pre-US jobless claims, PMIs and Fed Chair Powell part 2. Bunds reach 147.89 from 144.81 low, Gilts 113.36 vs 111.93 and 10 year T-note 117-16 compared to 116-25+. Italy raises EUR 9.45bln with the BTP Italia bond, via Reuters. Commodities Crude complex remains pressured with specific newsflow limited and focused on known themes, WTI/Brent -0.5% having benefitted from the recent pick up in broader sentiment; note, the EIA release has been delayed. Private US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +5.7mln (exp. -0.6mln), Gasoline +1.2mln (exp. -0.5mln), Distillates -1.7mln (exp. +0.3mln), Cushing -0.4mln. US EIA said product releases scheduled this week will be delayed due to system issues, while it added the nat gas storage report will be released as scheduled on June 23rd but all other releases will be delayed, according to Reuters. Germany reportedly fears that a planned 'maintenance' shutdown of the Nordstream 1 pipeline could be used by Russia to shut off gas supplies completely to Germany which would threaten its efforts to build stores ahead of winter, according to FT. Germany declares Phase Two of Emergency Gas Plan due to supply cuts from Russia and high prices. Spot gold is back below the DMAs it briefly surmounted yesterday, downside in wake of post-PMI USD upside. US event Calendar 08:30: June Initial Jobless Claims, est. 226,000, prior 229,000 08:30: June Continuing Claims, est. 1.32m, prior 1.31m 08:30: 1Q Current Account Balance, est. -$275b, prior -$217.9b 09:45: June S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 53.2, prior 53.4 09:45: June S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 56.0, prior 57.0 11:00: June Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 12, prior 23 Central Bank Speakers 10:00: Powell Testifies Before House Financial Services Panel DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap It’s been another eventful 24 hours in markets, with recession fears making a prominent return after Fed Chair Powell made some of his most pessimistic comments to date on whether the Fed would be able to successfully engineer a soft landing. Appearing before the Senate Banking Committee as part of the Fed’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Powell said that a recession was “a possibility”, whilst the soft landing the Fed is seeking will be “very challenging”, which is a long way from what the Fed were saying at the start of the year. Similarly, Powell said that the Fed “know we need to have restrictive policy, and that’s where we’re headed”, which is in line with what the Report itself said last week, in that the FOMC’s price stability commitment was “unconditional”. So a further reiteration that the Fed are prepared to keep hiking rates to bring down inflation, and an acknowledgement that there could well be a bumpy ride as they do so. However, even as Powell emphasised the Fed’s willingness to deal with inflation, those growing fears of a recession meant that Fed funds futures became more doubtful on the Fed’s ability to take policy into restrictive territory. For instance, the rate priced in by the December meeting actually came down -10.5bps yesterday, and since early last week we’ve seen nearly a full 25bp hike taken out of market pricing. The expected terminal rate also came down, with futures only seeing a peak of 3.61% in April 2023 before subsequent cuts. With investors becoming increasingly sceptical about the Fed taking policy far into restrictive territory, sovereign bonds rallied strongly yesterday, with yields on 10yr Treasuries down -11.9bps to 3.16%. That was driven by a decline in both real rates and inflation breakevens, and interestingly, the 10yr breakeven fell to its lowest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in late February yesterday, closing at 2.54%. In terms of the curve’s slope, the 2s10s steepened +2.2bps to 9.4bps, so still pretty close to inversion territory that has traditionally been a leading indicator of a recession. Meanwhile, if you look at the Fed’s preferred yield curve indicator that Powell has cited of the near-term forward spread (which looks at the 18m forward 3m yield minus the current 3m yield), that came down by -18.9bps yesterday to 176bps, which is the lowest it’s been in over 3 months, even if it still remains some way out of inversion territory. Equities put in a mixed performance against this backdrop, with the S&P 500 oscillating between gains and losses before ending the day down -0.13%. Energy stocks were a major laggard after oil prices fell to a one-month low, with Brent crude down -2.54% over yesterday’s session to close at $111.74/bbl. And this morning those losses have accelerated further, with Brent crude down -2.52% to trade at $108.92/bbl, which is now -13% beneath its intraday peak above $125/bbl seen last week. Over in Europe the tone was even more negative, with the major indices including the STOXX 600 (-0.70%) and the DAX (-1.11%) all seeing noticeable declines. That coincided with growing fears on the energy side, and Germany’s economy minister Habeck said yesterday that “we must assume that Putin is ready to reduce the gas flow further”. Natural gas futures in Europe (+1.28%) hit a 3-month high against that backdrop, and this is only set to become more of an issue as we move closer towards the colder months of the year. Staying on Europe, there was a similar rally in sovereign bonds to the US, with yields on 10yr bunds (-13.6bps) coming down from their post-2014 high on Tuesday. That was echoed elsewhere, whilst a fresh narrowing in peripheral spreads saw the gap between Italian 10yr yields over bunds reach their tightest in nearly a month, with a -2.0bps move to 191bps. Over in credit though, growing fears of a recession led to a widening in spreads, and iTraxx Crossover widened +15.4bps after 3 consecutive moves tighter. Overnight in Asia, equities are similarly struggling to gain traction in light of those warnings about a US recession. Both the Nikkei (-0.33%) and the Kospi (-0.84%) have moved lower for a second consecutive session, although Chinese equities have put in a stronger performance, with the Shanghai Composite (+0.58%) and the CSI (+0.49%) both trading in positive territory with the Hang Seng (+0.96%) maintaining its morning gains. Outside of Asia, US equity futures have continued to move between gains and losses, but contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.23%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.25%) are both pointing lower this morning. Moving on to economic data, it’s an eventful day ahead as we get the flash PMIs for June. But we’ve already had the numbers out of Japan, where the services PMI hit its highest since October 2013 at 54.2, whilst the composite reading also accelerated to 53.2, which is the highest since November. The numbers from Australia showed a modest decline in June however, with the flash composite PMI down three-tenths on May’s reading to a 5-month low of 52.6. Here in the UK, the main news yesterday came from the May CPI reading, where annual inflation rose to +9.1% in line with expectations. That’s the highest rate since March 1982, although core CPI did fall a bit more than expected to 5.9% (vs. 6.0% expected). Staying on the UK, there’s a couple of important political contests taking place in the form of two by-elections to the House of Commons as well. Both are in seats that had been won by the Conservatives at the last election, but where opposition parties are making a challenge, and represent an important test for Prime Minister Johnson’s authority, not least since he saw 41% of his party’s MPs vote no confidence in him at the start of the month. The one in Wakefield will be of particular interest, since that is a so-called “Red Wall” seat that Labour held for the entire post-war period before Johnson’s Conservatives gained it at the 2019 election. So an important bellwether as we move closer to the next election. Looking at yesterday’s other data, the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for the Euro Area in June unexpectedly fell to -23.6 (vs. -20.5 expected), which is its lowest level since April 2020 at the height of the initial wave of the Covid pandemic. Separately, we saw Canadian CPI surprise on the upside, with the annual number coming in at +7.7% in May (vs. +7.3% expected), which is the fastest since 1983. To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the rest of the flash PMIs for June, along with the US weekly initial jobless claims, the Q1 current account balance, and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity for June. From central banks, Fed Chair Powell will be speaking before the House Financial Services Committee, the ECB will publish their Economic Bulletin, and we’ll hear from the ECB’s Nagel and Villeroy. Finally, EU leaders will be meeting in Brussels. Tyler Durden Thu, 06/23/2022 - 07:50.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 23rd, 2022

Oil prices extend losses

Oil prices fell further on Thursday following a 3% drop in the previous session on concerns higher interest rates will slow the economy and put a dent in fuel demand......»»

Category: topSource: foxnewsJun 23rd, 2022

Futures, Cryptos Surge As Dip Buying Turns Into "Nasty Squeeze"

Futures, Cryptos Surge As Dip Buying Turns Into "Nasty Squeeze" Following a relentless rout that erased nearly $2 trillion in market value from the S&P 500 last week, US equity futures have surged, extending their Monday holiday gains just as predicted on Sunday when we said that a "Nasty Squeeze" was on Deck following last week's "Second Largest Ever" shorting by hedge funds. Nasdaq 100 futures rose as much as 2.2% before trading 1.7% higher as major US tech and internet stocks advanced, poised to extend Friday’s gains; shares of Tesla and Twitter also rose following billionaire Elon Musk’s comments at the Qatar Economic Forum; S&P 500 futures gained 1.8%; the cash market was closed on Monday for a holiday. Asian and European stocks also advanced as did bitcoin which jumped above $21K after sliding below $18K briefly on Saturday. Meanwhile Treasuries and the US Dollar retreated. US stocks came under renewed pressure last week, with the S&P plunged into bear market territory amid surging inflation and fears that aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will push the economy into a recession. The S&P 500 is set for an 11% drop in June, poised for the worst month since March 2020, which marked the lows of the pandemic selloff. Sentiment was somewhat boosted by Biden’s Monday comments on the economy in which he said that a recession isn't "inevitable" (what else will he say) but strategists have warned of more volatility ahead. “Even if the mid-term investing landscape remains blurry to most market operators at the beginning of this summer season, some investors looking for opportunities to buy shares at a discounted price have been reassured,” said Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades. “The fact central banks are moving quickly towards a super hawkish stance in order to tame inflation is also perceived as good news by some.” In premarket trading, bank stocks also pushed higher amid a broader rebound in risk assets. In corporate news, HSBC has lost two senior investment bankers in Asia as global banks compete for financial technology talent and dealmaking slows. Meanwhile, the UK’s Payment Systems Regulator will focus a pair of market reviews on the rising card fees charged by Visa and Mastercard. Tech names were also solidly higher; notable movers included Apple +2.4%, Microsoft +2%, Amazon.com +2.6%, Alphabet +2.6%, Meta Platforms +2.1%, Nvidia +3.1% premarket; all six stocks closed higher on Friday, while US markets were closed for a holiday on Monday. Stocks related to cryptocurrencies were also indicating a rally as the price of Bitcoin continues to hold above $20,000 amid a tentative recovery and hopes that prices have bottomed. Meanwhile, Revlon surged as much as 27% in premarket trading, extending Friday’s rally after the cosmetics firm filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Tesla (TSLA US) and Twitter (TWTR US) shares rose in premarket trading on Tuesday after billionaire Elon Musk said the CEO label at the social media firm was less important than driving the product and that Tesla will cut its salaried workforce by about 10% over  the next three months. Tesla rose 3.1% and Twitter was up 1.2% in premarket trading Revlon shares surge as much as 27% in US premarket trading, extending Friday’s rally after the cosmetics firm filed for bankruptcy. Major US technology and internet stocks advanced in premarket trading on Tuesday, poised to extend Friday’s gains. Apple (AAPL US) +2.4%, Microsoft (MSFT US) +2%, Amazon.com (AMZN US) +2.6%, Alphabet (GOOGL US) +2.6% Spirit (SAVE US) shares jump 13% in US premarket trading, to $24, after JetBlue (JBLU US) raised its offer to $33.50 per share from $31.50 on June 6, the latest move in a multi-billion dollar takeover contest with rival Frontier (ULCC US). Arrival shares jump 8.6% in US premarket trading after the electric- vehicle maker announced that its zero-emission van has achieved EU certification and received European Whole Vehicle Type Approval. US-listed Chinese stocks are mostly higher in premarket trading, tracking a two-day 2.3% rise in the Hang Seng Tech Index. Alibaba (BABA US) +4.6%, Baidu (BIDU US) +3.5%, Pinduoduo (PDD US)+3.3% Stocks related to cryptocurrencies rise on Tuesday in US premarket trading as the price of Bitcoin continues to hold above $20,000 amid a tentative recovery and hopes that prices have bottomed. Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +5.6%, Coinbase (COIN US) +4.7%, MicroStrategy (MSTR US) +5% Citi cuts ratings on International Paper Co. and WestRock to neutral from buy, citing increasing questions about demand as supply additions loom. International Paper falls 1.1% in premarket trading, WestRock -1.5% Keep an eye on Maxar shares as Wells Fargo said the stock is its top pick in the burgeoning space sector, initiating it at overweight, Rocket Lab at equal-weight and Virgin Galactic at underweight. Adobe (ADBE US) shares may be in focus today as the stock was downgraded to equal-weight and given Street-low $362 target from $591 by Morgan Stanley, on expectation of a slowing structural growth profile for the computer software company. After unexpectedly accelerating to a fresh 40-year high in May, US consumer price growth is seen slowing, with a Bloomberg survey of economists predicting 6.5% by the fourth quarter and to 3.5% by the middle of next year. Yet fears are rampant that Federal Reserve policy makers intent on cooling price pressures will go too far and trigger an economic slowdown. Strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned equities may have further to fall to fully price in the risk of recession, reflecting wider skepticism about Tuesday’s rebound. “We think equities will struggle to rebound sustainably until earnings expectations reset lower and/or central banks turn more dovish, which seems unlikely for now,” said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays Plc. European stocks also extended their recent recovery, with the region’s benchmark Stoxx 600 Index rising 1%, led by gains in basic resources and chemical companies’ shares. Consumer discretionary, chemicals and autos also trade well. CAC 40 outperforms. Leonardo jumps as much as 9.7% in Milan trading after its DRS unit agreed to buy Israeli radar-maker RADA Electronic in an all-stock transaction. Valneva rises as much as 23% after CEO Franck Grimaud said the company’s Lyme disease vaccine has the potential of becoming a “blockbuster” with sales of more than 1 billion euros. K+S and OCI shares gain after JPMorgan said valuations are “compelling” and fundamentals remain positive. European fertilizer shares had dropped recently because of rising gas prices. OCI rises as much as 4.6%; K+S +6.3% Air Liquide climbs as much as 3.9%, after the French industrial gas company signed a long-term power purchase agreement with Vattenfall. Mithra rises as much as 21% after the pharmaceutical company said it received subscription commitments for 3.87m new shares at an issue price of EU6.07 apiece, representing a 5% discount to last close. Richemont and Swatch advance after Swiss watch exports for the month of May showed strong demand versus the year-earlier period in the US and Japan as well as in European countries such as France and the UK. Luxury peers also trading higher in a wider rebound. Richemont gains as much as 2.8%, Swatch +2.8%, Hermes +3.3%, LVMH +3.7% European apparel retail shares drop after JPMorgan downgrades Asos, About You, Boohoo and Primark owner AB Foods to neutral from overweight, citing the cost of living crisis with cracks emerging in discretionary spending. Asos declines as much as 5.1%, Boohoo -4.8%, About You -4.3%, AB Foods -3.2% Proximus and Telenet slide after a statement by the Belgian telecom regulator showed that new entrant Citymesh partnered with Romanian carrier Digi Communications and acquired spectrum across various bands. Proximus shares fall as much as 7.8%, Telenet -3.9% Earlier in the session, MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index snapped an eight-day slide to add more than 1% as Asian equities headed for their biggest gain this month. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.8%, set to snap an eight-day losing streak, with financial and tech stocks among the biggest contributors to its advance. The US president spoke overnight after a conversation with former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, as the White House and congressional Democrats are in talks on legislation that aims to fight inflation. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong led gains in the region. Australia’s index advanced for the first time in days after central bank chief Philip Lowe signaled he will only raise interest rates by 25-to-50 basis points at the July meeting. Chinese shares edged lower after recent gains.  “It’s a respite, not a rebound,” said Charu Chanana, a market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets. “We are still in a bear market that is facing a double whammy of Fed tightening and building recession fears, and the second-quarter earnings season is likely to be particularly painful for the markets” due to cost pressures, she added.  Valuations for the MSCI Asia gauge have continued to slide toward pandemic lows, with the index down 18% this year. Still, it’s outperforming a measure of global shares, supported by a rally in Chinese equities this month as the country emerges from Covid-triggered lockdowns. Japanese stocks advanced as investors weighed the impact of the yen’s weakness and the extent of the recent selloff. The Topix Index rose 2% to 1,856.20 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 1.8% to 26,246.31. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 4%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 2,023 rose and 108 fell, while 39 were unchanged. “Stocks that are expected to have an upward revision from the weak yen may be firm,” said Mitsushige Akino, a senior executive officer at Ichiyoshi Asset Management. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.4% to close at 6,523.80, snapping a seven day losing steak. The benchmark was led by gains in banks and miners, with the financials sub-gauge rising the most since March 10.  In early trade, Australia’s central bank Governor Philip Lowe said he didn’t see a recession on the horizon for the nation.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 1.1% to 10,701.59 India’s benchmark share index posted its biggest two-day advance since May 30, boosted by a recovery in information technology stocks and as investors looked for bargains after a sharp selloff last week.  The S&P BSE Sensex rose 1.8% to close at 52,532.07 in Mumbai, taking its two-day advance to 2.3%. The NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 1.9%. All of the 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by a measure of oil & gas companies. “Crude prices have corrected by almost 10% from its recent peak, providing some breather to the Indian market,” Motilal Oswal Financial analyst Siddhartha Khemka wrote in a note.   Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 1.6%. All but one of 30 shares in the Sensex index rose. Of the top ten performers on the measure, half were information technology companies, led by Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. that clocked its biggest advance this month.  In rates, treasuries were cheaper across the curve as trading resumed after Monday’s US holiday; cash USTs bear steepened, but trim losses after cheapening ~5bps at the Asia reopen.  Long-end leads losses with stock futures rising after last week’s rout. US yields are ere cheaper by as much as 6bp at long end, steepening 2s10s by nearly 3bp, 5s30s by nearly 4bp; 10-year, higher by ~5bp at 3.27% lags bund and gilts by 3bp and 4.5bp while Italian bonds outperform Treasuries by 12bp in the sector. Bunds and gilts outperform Treasuries, while Italian bonds extend recent gains after ECB’s Olli Rehn reiterated determination to combat unwarranted spikes in borrowing costs for some of the region’s most vulnerable economies.  That said the ECB has yet to disclose said measures, a move which most agree will lead to selling the news. Gilts bull flatten, 10y yields drop 4bps after stalling near 2.6%. Bunds are comparatively quiet. Shorter-maturity Australian bonds rallied after central bank chief Philip Lowe said interest rates are likely to rise by 50 basis points at most in July. Money markets subsequently scrapped bets he would track the Federal Reserve with a 75 basis-point move. Japanese government bonds were mixed after a five-year note sale that drew the weakest demand in more than two years in the aftermath of wild price swings in futures that have made some traders uneasy about their exposure to cash bonds. In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index fell 0.3% as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. JPY is the weakest in G-10, plunging to a fresh 24 year low of 136. NOK and SEK outperform. The euro advanced and European bonds rallied, led by the front end even as ECB Governing Council Member Peter Kazimir said negative rates must be history by September. Governing Council member Olli Rehn separetely said that “there has been good reason to expedite the normalization of monetary policy”. The pound extended gains amid broad dollar weakness while UK government bonds inched up. BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill said policy makers would sacrifice growth in order to bring down inflation, saying there’s a risk of prices developing a “self-sustaining momentum. In commodities, WTI drifted 2.3% higher to trade near $112. Most base metals trade in the green; LME zinc rises 2.8%, outperforming peers. LME aluminum lags, dropping 0.3%. Spot gold is little changed at $1,838/oz. Bitcoin is bid and above the USD 21k mark, after last week's slip to a sub-USD 18k low. Elon Musk says he intends to personally support Dogecoin, via BBG TV. Coinbase (COIN) says connectivity issues across Coinbase and Coinbase Pro could cause failed trades and delayed transactions; issue was subsequently resolved. To the day ahead now, and data releases include US existing home sale for May, as well as the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for the same month. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Barkin and Mester, the ECB’s Rehn and the BoE’s Pill. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.9% to 3,744.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.0% to 411.06 MXAP up 1.5% to 158.77 MXAPJ up 1.5% to 528.18 Nikkei up 1.8% to 26,246.31 Topix up 2.0% to 1,856.20 Hang Seng Index up 1.9% to 21,559.59 Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,306.72 Sensex up 2.2% to 52,741.19 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.4% to 6,523.81 Kospi up 0.7% to 2,408.93 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.76% Euro up 0.5% to $1.0567 Brent Futures up 1.2% to $115.53/bbl Brent Futures up 1.2% to $115.52/bbl Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,835.31 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.61% to 104.06 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg UK rail workers began Britain’s biggest rail strike in three decades after unions rejected a last-minute offer from train companies, bringing services nationwide to a near standstill. Britain’s local authorities say they can’t afford to pay a mandated increase in the legal minimum wage over the next year without a £400 million cash injection from the national government A majority of European businesses are worried about their ability to meet employee demands for higher wages amid the current spike in inflation, according to a regional survey by Intrum AB Companies in Germany, the UK, France, Spain and Italy are the most distressed since August 2020, according to the Weil European Distress Index. The study aggregates data from more than 3,750 listed European firms A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks gained across amid a broad constructive global risk tone despite a lack of fresh macro drivers and the recent holiday closure in the US, with Bitcoin and Chinese commodity prices also stabilising after the recent tumultuous price action. ASX 200 was led higher by the energy sector and after RBA's Lowe effectively ruled out a 75bps hike next month. Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 26,000 level amid a predominantly weaker currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were positive with sentiment in Hong Kong underpinned by news the SAR is to propose a quarantine-free business travel corridor with mainland China, while mainland bourses lagged with the US ban on imports from Xinjiang taking effect from today. Japan's PM Kishida says rapid JPY weakening is a source of concern, must closely watch FX moves and consider monetary policy and FX measures separately. Top Asian News Chinese Developer Accepts Wheat, Garlic as Payment to Woo Buyers China Junk Bond Selloff in New Phase With Record Fosun Rout Gold Steady as Traders Weigh Central Bank Plans to Hike Rates Australian Tesla-Supplier Eyes First Lithium Exports Over- Optimism Among China Steel-Makers Behind Iron Ore’s Plunge European bourses are firmer and building on Monday's upside, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1%; thus far, newsflow has largely focused on familiar themes. Additionally, participants are awaiting the return of the US after Monday's market holiday. Currently, ES +1.7% with the region incrementally outperforming European peers. Elon Musk says there a still a few unresolved matters with Twitter (TWTR) including the number of spam users, via BBG TV; still awaiting a resolution, very significant. Adds, they are reducing the salaried workforce of Tesla (TSLA) by circa. 10% over the next three-months. Top European News French President Macron will invite all parties able to form a group in the new parliament for talks on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to Reuters. BDI revises down 2022 German GDP forecasts: 1.5% (prev. 3.5%); return to pre-COVID level expected at end-2022 at the earliest Central Banks ECB’s Lane said very high inflation means there is a risk inflation psychology could take hold and said the larger increment for rate increase in September does not represent a red alert assessment of inflation. Lane also commented that he doesn’t see a situation where they would need to revisit the plan for a July decision and there is no preview beyond September of what will be the appropriate pace of tightening, according to Reuters. ECB’s Villeroy said the new instrument should be available as much as necessary to make the no-limit commitment to protect the Euro very clear and the more credible such an instrument is, the less it may have to be used in practice. Villeroy added the new instrument will have rules but there will be elements of judgement also and said they would not necessarily need to hold purchases of government or private sector securities to maturity, according to Reuters. ECB's Rehn says EZ inflation pressured are broader and stronger; very likely the September move is more than 25bp in magnitude. BoE's Pill says if there is evidence of persistent price pressures, the MPC is certainly prepared to act, expects further tightening in the coming months, need to consider the exchange rate when assessing inflationary pressures. Worries that using monetary policy to stabilise the FX rate in the short-term would be a distraction from the BoE's goals. HKMA purchases HKD 9.6bln from the market, as the HKD hits the weak-end of the trading range. FX Euro firm as risk revival continues and ECB’s Rehn says 50bp hike in September is highly probable, EUR/USD eyeing 1.0600 after breaching 1.0550, but could be capped by 1bln option expiry interest between 1.0575-85. Sterling rebounds ahead of CBI industrial trends and after BoE chief economist Pill underlines willingness to act if price pressures prove persistent; Pound probes 1.2300 vs Dollar as DXY slips further from recent peaks through 104.000. Loonie and Nokkie boosted by firmer crude prices, as former awaits Canadian retail sales data; USD/CAD close to 1.2900 vs circa 1.3078 double top, EUR/NOK sub-10.4000 within 104.4200+/10.3400 range. Kiwi and Aussie underpinned by improvement in risk appetite, but hampered as NZ consumer sentiment slides to record low and RBA Governor Lowe pushes back on the amount of 2022 tightening priced in at present; NZD/USD hovers above 0.6350 and AUD/USD shy of 0.7000. Franc and Yen remain divergent with SNB and BoJ policy paths, latter largely ignoring latest verbal intervention; USD/CHF pivots 0.9650 and USD/JPY back above 135.00. Israel PM Bennett and Foreign Minister Lapid agreed on dissolving the Knesset and going for an early election, while the vote will take place next week and Lapid will become PM once the vote passes, according to Walla News. Fixed Income Debt divergent and erratic awaiting the return of US cash markets from long holiday weekend. Bunds hold within 143.05-144.01 range and Gilts between 111.11-68 parameters. Treasury futures retreat and curve flits from marginal flattening to steepening ahead of US existing home sales and more Fed speak via Mester and Barkin Commodities WTI and Brent are bid amid broader risk sentiment with newsflow focusing on familiar themes primarily around the reduction in Russia's gas supply to Europe. Thus far, Brent has tested but failed to connivingly breach the USD 116.00/bbl mark ahead of touted USD 116.37/bbl resistance. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said she does not see resuming the Keystone XL oil pipeline as a short-term measure that can address high oil prices, while she added it would take years to have an impact. Yellen also commented that evidence is mixed on the level of pass-through from a gasoline tax holiday to lower prices and said that an exception or ban on insurance for certain Russian oil shipments would effectively provide a price cap on oil, according to Reuters. Brazilian Economy Minister Guedes said Brazil is part of the western energy security, particularly for Europe, while he added that privatising and moving Petrobras to Novo Mercado would increase its market cap from BRL 450bln to BRL 750bln. Guedes added that they will conduct new measures again if the war in Ukraine is escalating, according to Reuters. PetroEcuador may have to stop exports if protests continue and it declared a force majeure to avoid contract penalties, according to Reuters. Vitol CEO says markets are faced with underinvestment and falling production capacity for crude and there is a relatively tight refining situation, via Reuters; if China exports some more products, the tightness felt today won't be felt. Denmark's energy agency declared an 'early warning' stage of gas supply preparedness, according to Reuters. German regulator says they are not in a hurry to declare the highest gas emergency level yet, via Reuters citing BR; however, Sweden declares an "early warning" stage of gas supply preparedness for Western and Southern parts of the nation. Codelco's union presidents ratified the start of a national strike beginning on Wednesday, according to Reuters; an update which, alongside broader risk, is supporting LME Copper. US Event Calendar 08:30: May Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.47, prior 0.47 10:00: May Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -3.7%, prior -2.4% 10:00: May Home Resales with Condos, est. 5.4m, prior 5.61m Central Banks 11:00: Fed’s Barkin Interviewed During NABE Event 12:00: Fed’s Mester Speaks at Women in Leadership Event 15:30: Fed’s Barkin Speaks in Richmond DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I’ll be publishing my latest monthly chartbook later today so keep an eye out for it. It will include the slides for last week’s webinar on the default study “The end of the ultra-low default world”. See here for the webinar replay and here for the original default study. Welcome to the longest day of the year although most in markets will already say we've had numerous of those already so far this year. Actually if you're outside of London, trying to get in it could be a very, very long day as the UK is today gripped by the first of three alternate day rail strikes. There is a tube strike today thrown in for good measure. It does seem industrial relations with the government are on a knife edge across the UK as at least 3 million workers across different professions are considering industrial action at the moment over pay and working conditions. So this could become a much bigger story if tensions are not eased. With inflation this high it's not easy to see how they can be without big pay rises being offered. However on this day of wall to wall sun (sorry to the Southern Hemisphere readers), there has been a little more light than dark in markets over the last 24 hours after what was the worst week for global equities since March 2020. The next major event(s) to look forward to are Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimonies from tomorrow. To be honest though, its been a fairly quiet start to the week given the US holiday yesterday, with the biggest news instead being a fresh rise in European sovereign bond yields after President Lagarde reiterated the ECB’s intentions to start hiking next month, and also shone a bit more light on their plans to deal with any potential fragmentation. We’ll start with those remarks from Lagarde, who appeared in a hearing at the European Parliament yesterday and spoke strongly against any potential fragmentation in the Euro Area. Indeed, she said that “we need to be absolutely certain” that monetary policy was being transmitted to the different Euro Area countries and went as far to say that it was “right at the core of the mandate”, whilst adding “anybody who doubts that determination will be making a big mistake”. So not quite “whatever it takes” but along the same lines. Given the ECB has promised to deal with any fragmentation, that should make life easier for them when it comes to raising rates, and European sovereign bond yields responded accordingly yesterday. Looking at the specific moves, yields on 10yr bunds (+9.0bps), OATs (+11.8bps) and BTPs (+12.3bps) all moved noticeably higher, although by the standards of last week that seemed quite modest given that 10yr bund yields had seen absolute moves of 11bps in either direction on 3 out of 5 days last week. When it came to bonds though, it was UK gilts who were one of the biggest underperformers yesterday after we heard from one of the more hawkish members of the Bank of England’s MPC. Catherine Mann (who was in the minority that favoured of a 50bps move last week) said in a speech that “the incoming data on inflation show increasingly domestic embeddedness, persistence, and momentum”. Furthermore, she also warned about the risk of embedded domestic inflation being “further boosted by inflation imported via a Sterling depreciation”. Against that backdrop, 10yr gilt yields rose by +10.6bps to close above 2.6% for the first time since 2014, whilst overnight index swaps are continuing to price in a more aggressive response from the BoE after the next meeting, with 50bp moves priced in for each of the next 3 meetings, which would be the fastest pace of hikes since they gained operational independence in 1997. In spite of the sovereign bond selloff, equities put in a much better performance yesterday, with the STOXX 600 (+0.91%) seeing a broad-based advance that was supported by all the main sector groups. Other indices on the continent also moved higher, including the FTSE 100 (+1.50%), the DAX (+1.06%) and the FTSE MIB (+0.99%). The worst performer on a relative basis was France’s CAC 40 (+0.64%), which struggled following the news that President Macron had lost his parliamentary majority, which will make passing his agenda much more difficult in the coming years. See our economists’ piece on the topic here. With the US holiday we only had futures to look at, but those on the S&P 500 had moved around +1% higher by the time of the European close. They are +1.62% higher this morning with the NASDAQ 100 futures (+1.71%) also meaningfully higher. Meanwhile, Fed funds futures were again moving in the direction of pricing in a more aggressive path of rate hikes, with the implied rate by the December meeting up +7.18bps to 3.625%, albeit still beneath their closing peak of 3.72% just before the Fed meeting, which meant that Treasury futures were also pointing to fresh declines yesterday as well. Asian equity markets are relatively buoyant this morning with the Nikkei (+1.76%) leading the pack followed by the Hang Seng (+1.42%). In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (+0.18%) and CSI (+0.12%) are also trading in positive territory whilst the Kospi (+1.03%) is sharply higher in early trade. Elsewhere, the meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released this morning indicated that the central bank is leaning towards more monetary policy tightening over the coming months. The minutes also revealed that inflation was expected to increase to 7% by the end of the year due to pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, before coming back towards the 2-3% inflation range in 2023. Meanwhile, the RBA Governor Philip highlighted that interest rates were still "very low" but watered-down expectations of 75bps rate hikes thus signaling a 25 or 50bps move at the July meeting. On the FX side, the Aussie Dollar did witness a sharp dip during the RBA Governor’s Q&A session but is reversing losses, trading +0.35% at 0.697 per US dollar, as I type. Elsewhere the Japanese yen has remained under pressure at 135.03 per dollar, not far off a 24-year low of 135.58 hit early last week. Separately, oil prices are higher this morning with Brent futures (+1.04%) at $115.32/bbl and WTI futures increasing +1.79% to $111.52/bbl. To the day ahead now, and data releases include US existing home sale for May, as well as the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for the same month. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Barkin and Mester, the ECB’s Rehn and the BoE’s Pill. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/21/2022 - 08:02.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytJun 21st, 2022

Forget Recession Fears With These ETFs

Inflation has been red-hot in America and is not showing signs of cooling down. This has accelerated recession fears. Inflation has been red-hot in America and is not showing signs of cooling down. This is especially true as the latest data showed that U.S. consumer prices have accelerated at the fastest rate in May since 1981, as Americans grapple with a surge in the cost of gas, food and shelter.Against such a scenario, we have highlighted five ETFs that could provide some shelter from the crisis and benefit investors’ portfolio. These include AGFiQ US Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund BTAL, Cambria Tail Risk ETF TAIL, AdvisorShares Dorsey Wright Short ETF DWSH, Nationwide Nasdaq-100 Risk-Managed Income ETF NUSI and Pacer Trendpilot Fund of Funds ETF TRND.The risk-off trade is likely to continue at least in the near term. Notably, the three major indexes are in a bear market and the latest inflation data accelerated recession fears. The consumer price index (CPI) jumped 8.6% year over year to a fresh 40-year high, from an 8.3% annual increase recorded in April. The data has put pressure on the Fed to extend an aggressive series of interest rate hikes and has added to political problems for the White House and Democrats.Fed Chair Jerome Powell raised interest rates by 75 bps in its latest FOMC meeting, pushing the federal funds rate between 1.5% and 1.75%, to quell inflation through a tighter monetary policy. This marked the biggest interest-rate increase since 1994. Powell said that the Fed could raise rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the July Fed meeting and stressed that policy will be "sensitive and flexible.” This comment has renewed optimism in the market. All the Fed officials see rates rising to at least 3% by year-end, with a median estimate of 3.4%. They expect rates to rise to 3.8% by the end of 2023 (read: Fed Raises Rates by 75 bps: ETFs Set to Surge).Overall, an increase in interest rates means higher loan rates for consumers and businesses, including mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. Additionally, the persistent rise in commodity prices and the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war have already been making investors jittery.As the global economy is struggling with skyrocketing inflation and low growth, the World Bank has warned of a recession and slashed its global growth forecast. It now expects the global economy to expand 2.9% this year, down from 5.7% growth in 2021 and lower than the 401% expectation projected in January. The World Bank cautioned that many countries could fall into recession as the economy slips into a period of stagflation reminiscent of the 1970s.AGFiQ US Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund (BTAL)AGFiQ US Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund has the potential to generate positive returns regardless of the direction of the stock market as long as low-beta stocks outperform high-beta stocks. It invests primarily in long positions in low-beta U.S. equities and short positions in high-beta U.S. equities on a dollar-neutral basis within sectors.AGFiQ US Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund has AUM of $168.9 million and an expense ratio of 2.53%. It trades in an average daily volume of 196,000 shares (read: 5 ETFs Surge As S&P 500 Slips to Bear Market).Cambria Tail Risk ETF (TAIL)Cambria Tail Risk ETF seeks to mitigate significant downside market risk as it invests in a portfolio of "out of the money" put options purchased on the U.S. stock market. The TAIL strategy offers the potential advantage of buying more puts when volatility is low and fewer puts when volatility is high. While a portion of the fund's assets will be invested in the basket of long put option premiums, the majority of fund assets will be invested in intermediate-term U.S. Treasuries.Cambria Tail Risk ETF has amassed $467.3 million in its asset base and charges 59 bps in annual fees from investors. It trades in a volume of 524,000 shares a day on average.AdvisorShares Dorsey Wright Short ETF (DWSH)AdvisorShares Dorsey Wright Short ETF is an actively managed that short sells U.S. large-cap securities with the highest relative weakness within an investment universe primarily, comprising large-capitalization U.S.-traded equities. It holds 104 stocks in its basket, with consumer discretionary taking the largest share at 22.8%, while energy and healthcare round off the next two spots.AdvisorShares Dorsey Wright Short ETF trades in a lower average daily volume of 56,000 shares and has accumulated $39.7 million in its asset base. It charges a higher annual fee of 3.68%.Nationwide Nasdaq-100 Risk-Managed Income ETF (NUSI)Nationwide Nasdaq-100 Risk-Managed Income ETF targets high income with lower risk using a rules-based options trading strategy. It is designed for income-focused investors seeking to lower their exposure to market volatility and minimize the potential for losses during down markets (read: Low-Beta ETFs to Buy Amid Market Turmoil).With AUM of $623.3 million, Nationwide Nasdaq-100 Risk-Managed Income ETF charges 68 bps in annual fees and trades in an average daily volume of 255,000 shares.Pacer Trendpilot Fund of Funds ETF (TRND)Pacer Trendpilot Fund of Funds ETF follows the Pacer Trendpilot Fund of Funds Index, which seeks to implement a systematic trend-following strategy that directs exposure to 100% to the equity component; or 50% to the equity component and 50% to 3-month US Treasury bills; or 100% to 3-month US Treasury bills, depending on the relative performance of the equity Component and its 200-business day historical simple moving average.Pacer Trendpilot Fund of Funds ETF has amassed $62.4 million and charges 77 bps in annual fees. It trades in a volume of around 9,000 shares a day on average. Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week.Get it free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report AGFiQ US Market Neutral AntiBeta ETF (BTAL): ETF Research Reports Cambria Tail Risk ETF (TAIL): ETF Research Reports AdvisorShares Dorsey Wright Short ETF (DWSH): ETF Research Reports Pacer Trendpilot Fund of Funds ETF (TRND): ETF Research Reports Nationwide Nasdaq100 RiskMan (NUSI): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJun 17th, 2022

Low-Beta ETFs to Buy Amid Market Turmoil

Investors may want to remain invested in the equity world but at the same time seek protection from a downside. This could be easily achieved by investing in low-beta products. Wall Street has been struggling this year trigerred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, tightening monetary policy and surging commodity prices. In fact, the S&P 500 Index tumbled into a "bear market" after the latest inflation data accelerated recession fears. With this, the benchmark ended the bull market that began at the depths of the COVID crash in March 2020.Investors may want to remain invested in the equity world but at the same time seek protection from a downside. This could be easily achieved by investing in low-beta products like Invesco S&P 500 Downside Hedged ETF PHDG, Nationwide Nasdaq-100 Risk-Managed Income ETF NUSI, 6 Meridian Small Cap Equity ETF SIXS, Pacer Trendpilot Fund of Funds ETF TRND and Armor US Equity Index ETF ARMR. These funds could be intriguing options for investors amid the current market turbulence.After cooling somewhat in April, U.S. consumer prices accelerated at the fastest rate in May since 1981, as Americans grapple with a surge in the cost of gas, food and shelter. The consumer price index jumped 8.6% year over year to a fresh 40-year high, from an 8.3% annual increase recorded in April. The data has put pressure on Fed to extend an aggressive series of interest rate hikes and has added to political problems for the White House and Democrats (read: ETFs to Win as Inflation Jumps to New 40-Year High).Overall, an increase in interest rates means higher loan rates for consumers and businesses, including mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. Additionally, the persistent rise in commodity prices and the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war have already been making invetsors jittery.As the global economy is struggling with skyrocketing inflation and low growth, the World Bank has warned of a recession and slashed its global growth forecast. It now expects the global economy to expand 2.9% this year, down from 5.7% growth in 2021 and lower than the 401% expectation projected in January. The World Bank cautioned that many countries could fall into recession as the economy slips into a period of stagflation reminiscent of the 1970s.Why Low Beta?Beta measures the price volatility of stocks relative to the overall market. It has a direct relationship to market movements. A beta of 1 indicates that the price of the stock or fund tends to move with the broader market. A beta of more than 1 indicates that the price tends to move higher than the broader market and is extremely volatile, while a beta of less than 1 indicates that the price of the stock or fund is less volatile than the market.That said, low-beta products exhibit greater levels of stability than their market-sensitive counterparts and will usually lose less when the market crumbles. Given lesser risks and lower returns, these are considered safe and resilient amid uncertainty. However, when markets soar, these low-beta funds experience lesser gains than the broader market counterparts and thus lag their peers.All the above-mentioned funds offer broad exposure to a number of sectors and have AUM of more than $50 million, indicating their good tradability.Invesco S&P 500 Downside Hedged ETF (PHDG) – Beta: 0.33Invesco S&P 500 Downside Hedged ETF is an actively managed fund and seeks to deliver positive returns in rising or falling markets that are not directly correlated to broad equity or fixed-income market returns. Invesco S&P 500 Downside Hedged ETF tries to follow the S&P 500 Dynamic VEQTOR Index, which provides broad equity market exposure with an implied volatility hedge by dynamically allocating between different asset classes: equity, volatility and cash. The index allows investors to receive exposure to the equity and volatility of the S&P 500 Index in a dynamic framework (read: 5 Safe Investing Zones &Their ETFs to Escape Market Rout).Invesco S&P 500 Downside Hedged ETF has accumulated $286.7 million in its asset base and charges 40 bps in fees per year from its investors. Volume is good, exchanging 112,000 shares a day on average.Nationwide Nasdaq-100 Risk-Managed Income ETF (NUSI) – Beta: 0.44Nationwide Nasdaq-100 Risk-Managed Income ETF targets high income with a measure of downside protection using a rules-based options trading strategy. It is designed for income-focused investors seeking to lower their exposure to market volatility and minimize the potential for losses during down markets.With AUM of $644.1 million, Nationwide Nasdaq-100 Risk-Managed Income ETF charges 68 bps in annual fees and trades in an average daily volume of 268,000 shares.6 Meridian Small Cap Equity ETF (SIXS) - Beta: 0.566 Meridian Small Cap Equity ETF is an actively managed ETF that uses a quantitively-driven strategy emphasizing high-quality, small-cap stocks. Stocks are first screened to remove those that score poorly on financial and growth measures. Those stocks that pass the screen are then ranked on a stand-alone basis in relation to two factors — beta and value. The stocks that rank the highest for each factor are combined into one portfolio. Stocks that rank high in both factors are over-weighted. This strategy results in a basket of 87 stocks, charging investors 100 bps in annual fees.The product has amassed $60.8 million in its asset base and trades in a paltry volume of 2,000 shares per day on average (read: 6 Reasons Why You Should Tap Small-Cap ETFs Now).Pacer Trendpilot Fund of Funds ETF (TRND) – Beta: 0.57Pacer Trendpilot Fund of Funds ETF follows the Pacer Trendpilot Fund of Funds Index, which seeks to implement a systematic trend-following strategy that directs exposure to 100% to the equity component; or 50% to the equity component and 50% to 3-month US Treasury bills; or 100% to 3-month US Treasury bills, depending on the relative performance of the equity Component and its 200-business day historical simple moving average.Pacer Trendpilot Fund of Funds ETF has amassed $63.1 million and charges 77 bps in annual fees. It trades in volume of around 9,000 shares a day on average.Armor US Equity Index ETF (ARMR) – Beta: 0.61Armor US Equity Index ETF seeks to provide exposure to the sectors of the U.S. equity market that the fund’s index provider believes are most likely to generate positive returns while aiming to provide downside protection and lower volatility. It follows the Armor US Equity Index, charging 60 bps in annual fees from investors.Armor US Equity Index ETF has $72.6 million in AUM and trades in an average daily volume of 19,000 shares. Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week.Get it free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Invesco S&P 500 Downside Hedged ETF (PHDG): ETF Research Reports Pacer Trendpilot Fund of Funds ETF (TRND): ETF Research Reports Nationwide Nasdaq100 RiskMan (NUSI): ETF Research Reports Armor US Equity Index ETF (ARMR): ETF Research Reports ETC 6 Meridian Small Cap Equity ETF (SIXS): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksJun 15th, 2022

US stock extend decline as investors prepare for a potential 75 basis point rate hike from the Fed

The Fed was previously expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, but Friday's hot CPI inflation report seems to be changing their outlook. A trader works at the New York Stock Exchange NYSE in New York, the United States, on March 9, 2022.Michael Nagle/Xinhua via GettyThe S&P 500 extended its two-day decline to 5% on Tuesday as investors prepare for the Fed's Wednesday meeting.The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, ahead of prior expectations for just a 50 basis point hike.Tuesday's sell-off solidifies the S&P 500's bear market, which it officially entered on Monday.US stocks traded mostly lower on Tuesday, extending their two-day decline to about 5% as the S&P 500 solidified its new bear market regime. The heightened volatility in the stock market comes as investors fret about an expected sizable increase in interest rates on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve concludes its meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The Fed was previously expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, but following Friday's hot CPI inflation report, the central bank is now expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. Though, there's no telling if the interest rate hike will help cool inflation, which is mainly being driven by supply side constraints, rather than demand.Meanwhile, those higher interest rates could have a chilling effect on the economy and push mortgage rates to levels not seen in many years.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. ET close on Tuesday:S&P 500: 3,735.68, down 0.37%Dow Jones Industrial Average: 30,364.83, down 0.5% (151.91 points)Nasdaq Composite: 10,828.35, up 0.18%Goldman Sachs is now warning investors that the chances of a US recession are on the rise as the Fed is likely to hike interest rates by 75 basis points at its next two meetings. Traders now expect the Fed to hike rates to close to 4% in 2023.But perhaps what's worse than high inflation, and even a recession, is a prolonged period of stagflation, which the Fed is trying to prevent with its interest rate hikes. Over 80% of investors now expect stagflation to shock the stock market within the next year, according to Bank of America.Amid the ongoing chaos in the cryptocurrency market, with bitcoin briefly falling below $22,000 on Tuesday, Tether's stablecoin barely lost its dollar peg again. Tether's stablecoin hit $0.9975 after the Celsius crypto network halted withdrawals over the weekend.Coinbase stock fell on Tuesday after the company was downgraded by JPMorgan, citing the broad decline in the cryptocurrency market. Separately, Coinbase announced a round of deep job cuts, impacting about 18% of its workforce. Bitcoin losses piled up for companies that added the cryptocurrency to its balance sheet. MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Block have a combined unrealized loss of more than $1 billion in bitcoin, based on Tuesday's prices. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell as much as much as 2.87% to $117.46. per barrel. Brent crude, oil's international benchmark, dropped as much as 2.12% to $119.68.Bitcoin rose as much as 1.47% to $22,393. Ether prices jumped as much as 3.94% to $1,218.Gold fell as much as 1.39% to $1,806.30 per ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury surged 13 basis points to 3.50%. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJun 14th, 2022

Metals Stocks: Gold prices cede more ground as investors brace for Fed decision

Gold prices extend their losses into a second straight session on Tuesday, even as the U.S. dollar eases back. Investors are focused on Wednesday's Fed outcome......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatchJun 14th, 2022

Futures Drop As Yields Push Higher, Hawkish ECB Looms

Futures Drop As Yields Push Higher, Hawkish ECB Looms After yesterday's bizarro rally, US futures and European bourses dipped ending two days of gains, as yields reversed Tuesday's slide and climbed ahead of highly anticipated CPI data on Friday and a hawkish ECB meeting tomorrow, as traders try to predict the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Nasdaq 100 futures were flat at 7:30 a.m. in New York, with contracts on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones also modestly lower. European markets also dipped, with Credit Suisse shares tumbling after the Swiss bank announced that it expects a loss in the 2Q and is weighing a fresh round of job cuts. Meanwhile, Asian stocks rose as Beijing’s move to approve a slew of new video games bolstered bets that the outlook is improving for the Chinese technology sector. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury resumed its advance, climbing to 3%, while the dollar rose as the yen cratered to fresh 20 year lows, flat and bitcoin traded around $30K again. Among notable premarket movers, energy companies’ extended their Tuesday gains with Imperial Petroleum rising 8.3% and Energy Focus adding 20%. Western Digital shares climbed 4.1% in US premarket trading after the chipmaker said that it’ll consider splitting its main units as part of a review of “strategic alternatives” following talks with activist investor Elliott. US-listed Chinese stocks jump in premarket trading, on track for a third day of gains, after China approved a second batch of video games this year, providing a signal of policy support to the the country’s internet sector; Alibaba (BABA US) gained 5.8%, JD.com (JD US) +4.4%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) +5.9%, Baidu (BIDU US) +2.7%. Other notable premarket movers: Intel (INTC US) shares fell 1.9% in premarket trading as Citi lowered its estimates on the chipmaker after the company’s management mentioned at a conference that circumstances are worse than expected during the quarter. Altria Group (MO US) stock slid 2.4% in premarket trading as Morgan Stanley downgraded it to underweight, citing increasing macro pressures and competitive risks. Western Digital (WDC US) shares rise 4.1% in premarket trading, after the chipmaker said that it will consider splitting its main units as part of a review of “strategic alternatives”. Smartsheet (SMAR US) stock fell about 7% in premarket trading as analysts said the software company delivered a mixed set of results with billings growth decelerating to top estimates by a slimmer margin than in previous quarters. Novavax (NVAX US) shares jump as much as 22% in US premarket trading after the company’s coronavirus vaccine won support from an FDA advisory panel. DBV Technologies ADRs (DBVT US) gain as much as 22% in US premarket trading after a trial for the biotech firm’s peanut allergy treatment met its primary endpoint. Sentiment remains fragile on concerns rising rates will spark a recession as corporate earnings are set to slide. Thursday the ECB is set to wind down trillions of euros of asset purchases in a prelude to a rate hike expected in July that will mark the end of eight years of negative interest rates. "Higher yields will inevitably resume the pressure on valuations,” said Roger Lee, head of UK equity strategy at Investec Bank. Inflation now exceeds 8% in the euro area, and is expected to stay above that level in the US when May data comes out on Friday, increasing pressure on central banks to stick to aggressive rate hikes. “Recent bouts of optimism can only be short-lived for now, as they were based on the wrong assumptions, that lower growth would push central bankers to ease their aggressive path,” Olivier Marciot, a portfolio manager at Unigestion SA, wrote in a report. Yet some argue that central banks will be forced back into dovish mode, among them hedge fund founder Ray Dalio. The billionaire said central banks across the globe will be required to cut interest rates in 2024 after a period of stagflation. On Friday, focus will turn to the US CPI reading for hints on the Fed's tightening path following the central bank’s outsized hike on May 4. The data is expected to show inflation picked up from a month ago, but slightly slowed from a year earlier. Complicating the task of policy makers trying to arrest runaway inflation without choking off growth, the war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending. That’s ignited higher food and energy prices across the world, despite the best efforts of central banks to use higher rates to cool economies. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was down 0.4%, with shares of basic resources companies and financial sector stocks leading the drop,  while the region’s bonds fell as traders braced for a crucial European Central Bank meeting. Credit Suisse shares tumbled as much as 7.6% after the Swiss bank announced that it expects a loss in the 2Q. In addition, people familiar with the matter said that the lender is weighing a fresh round of job cuts. European mining stocks also underperformed the Stoxx 600 benchmark as copper declines, while iron ore fluctuates with investors weighing signs of demand recovery against caution that China may seek to stabilize commodity prices. The Stoxx Europe 600 Basic Resources sub-index slid 1.1% as of 9:45 a.m. in London after rising to the highest since April on Tuesday. Here are the most notable European movers: Prosus’s shares jump as much as 8.6% in Amsterdam trading after China approved its second batch of video games this year, with a total of 60 titles. Naspers, which holds a 29% stake in Tencent through Prosus, up as much as 9.8%. Inditex shares gain as much as 5.3% after the Zara owner reported 1Q results. Analysts were impressed by the sales beat, with Bryan Garnier calling the company a “safe-haven choice” in the retail sector. UK and European retail stocks rise after Inditex’s results helped boost sentiment, with the retail segment the biggest gainer in the Stoxx 600 Index. Asos gained as much as +3.9%, Boohoo +3.1%, JD Sports +2.5%. Voestalpine shares rise as much as 4.5% after the company reported strong results for the business year, even as its guidance for FY23 points at a lack of visibility for fiscal 2H, according to analysts. Haldex shares rise as much as 45% after SAF-Holland offers SEK66 in cash per share for the Swedish brake and air suspension products maker, representing a 46.5% premium to its closing price on Tuesday. Wizz Air shares fall as much as 8.6% after the company reported results that were in line with expectations but flagged an operating loss for the 1Q of fiscal year 2023. European mining stocks underperform the Stoxx 600 benchmark as copper declines, while iron ore fluctuates. Anglo American shares fell as much as 1.7%, Rio Tinto -1.8%, Glencore -1.7%, Antofagasta -3.3%. Orpea shares declined as much as 5.9% as the company said that French police investigators began an evidence-gathering raid on Wednesday at its headquarters. Asian stocks rose as Beijing’s move to approve a slew of new video games bolstered bets that the outlook is improving for the Chinese technology sector.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 1.1%, with Alibaba and Tencent providing the biggest boosts. Benchmarks in Hong Kong outperformed on the approvals news, while Japanese equities climbed as the yen continued to weaken. Stocks in India fell after the country’s central bank raised interest rates as expected while Thai shares inched up after the Bank of Thailand kept its benchmark rate unchanged.  China approved more games in a step toward normalization after a months-long freeze amid the government’s crackdowns on the tech sector. The news follows a report earlier this week that regulators are preparing to conclude an investigation of ride-hailing giant Didi. “We think the significant dangers have passed” in Chinese equities markets, said Eric Schiffer, chief executive officer at California-based private equity firm Patriarch Organization, which holds positions in Alibaba and JD. “The approval on the game titles signals that policymakers are following through on their intention to back off tech regulation and reverse the pain that caused investors to leave the sector."  Optimism toward a less-harsh regulatory environment and China’s post-Covid economic reopening has helped Hong Kong’s tech stocks outperform US peers recently. The Hang Seng Tech Index is up more than 17% the past month compared with little change in the Nasdaq 100. The rebound in Chinese equities also helped the MSCI Asia Pacific Index stage a bigger recovery than the S&P 500 in the same period. Japanese equities advanced for a fourth straight day, as the yen’s weakness provided support for the nation’s exporters.   The Topix rose 1.2% to 1,969.98 as of market close, while the Nikkei advanced 1% to 28,234.29. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 1.8%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,646 rose and 435 fell, while 89 were unchanged. Stocks in India declined as the Reserve Bank of India said it would withdraw pandemic-era accommodation to quell inflation after raising borrowing costs for a second straight month.  The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 0.4% to 54,893.84, as of 2:46 p.m. in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index fell 0.6%. Both gauges erased gains of as much as 0.8% reached during the central bank’s briefing and are heading for a fourth day of declines. Of 30 shares in the Sensex, 13 rose and 17 fell. Sustained high prices could unhinge inflationary expectations and trigger second-round effects, central bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said in an online briefing, emphasizing that preserving price stability is key to ensuring lasting economic growth. Reliance Industries was the biggest drag on the Sensex, while State Bank of India gave the biggest boost. All except two of BSE’s 19 sector sub-gauges declined, with telecom and energy groups the worst performers as realty and metals gained In FX, Yen weakness extends in European trade, with JPY hitting the weakest level since 2002 at 133.77/USD after BOJ’s Kuroda reiterated easing stance. The dollar strengthened against all its group-of-10 peers with the yen and Australian and New Zealand dollars as the worst performers. The euro fluctuated around the $1.07 handle while bunds and Italian bonds fell alongside Treasuries, paring some of Tuesday’s gains. Australian and New Zealand dollars both weakened amid greenback strength and falling US stock futures. Aussie further was weighed by local yields giving up Tuesday’s RBA-driven gains. In rates, Treasuries drifted lower, giving back a portion of Tuesday’s gains and following bigger losses for bunds, which underperformed ahead of Thursday’s ECB policy meeting.  Yields are cheaper by 2bp-3bp across the curve with front-end marginally outperforming, steepening 2s10s spread by ~1.5bp and building curve concession for the auction; bunds underperform by 1.5bp in 10-year sector.  Focal points of US session include 10-year auction, following soft results for Tuesday’s 3-year. $33b 10-year reopening at 1pm ET is second of this week’s three auctions; $19b 30-year reopening is ahead Thursday. WI 10-year yield ~3.015% is above auction stops since 2011 and ~7bp cheaper than May’s, which tailed by 1.4bp. JGBs little changed, with benchmark 10-year bonds trading again after no transactions on Tuesday. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany; Italy lags, widening ~3bps to core at the 10y points ahead of the ECB on Thursday. In commodities, WTI drifts 0.6% higher to trade at around $120. Most base metals are in the green; LME tin rises 2.8%, outperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $5 to trade at $1,848/oz. Looking at To the day ahead now, and it’s a fairly quiet one on the calendar, but data releases include German industrial production and Italian retail sales for April, as well as the UK construction PMI for May and the final reading of US wholesale inventories for April. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 4,144.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 441.39 MXAP up 0.8% to 169.14 MXAPJ up 1.1% to 559.98 Nikkei up 1.0% to 28,234.29 Topix up 1.2% to 1,969.98 Hang Seng Index up 2.2% to 22,014.59 Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,263.79 Sensex down 0.4% to 54,907.55 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,121.10 Kospi little changed at 2,626.15 Brent Futures up 0.3% to $120.92/bbl Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,847.71 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.34% to 102.67 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.33% Euro down 0.2% to $1.0686 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Boris Johnson plans to press ahead with legislation giving him the power to override parts of the Brexit deal, three people familiar with the matter said, a move likely to anger some of his MPs and the EU The yen’s historic weakness is spreading from the dollar into other currency crosses as the Bank of Japan’s policy isolation grows. Bloomberg’s Correlation-Weighted Currency Index for the yen -- a gauge of its relative strength against a broad basket of Group-of-10 peers -- slumped to a seven-year low Wednesday Japanese investors sold US Treasuries for the sixth consecutive month in April, underscoring waning appetite for the securities as the Federal Reserve sticks to its aggressive monetary tightening path Inflation in Hungary exceeded 10% for the first time in more than 20 years, putting pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy further and prop up the forint Australian inflation is likely to breach 6% and potentially could go “well above” that level and remain there for the rest of the year, Secretary to the Treasury Steven Kennedy said Wednesday Economists and investors criticized Australia’s central bank for confusing communications after it raised interest rates by twice as much as expected, having previously signaled a preference for quarter-point moves The RBI delivered a 50 basis-point rate hike as predicted by 17 of 41 economists in a Bloomberg survey A slew of China video game approvals is giving stock bulls renewed hope that a nascent rebound in tech shares could become a sustainable rally. The Hang Seng Tech Index jumped more than 4% Wednesday after the government approved 60 licenses A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mostly higher following the gains on Wall St and optimism of China easing its tech crackdown. ASX 200 recovered from the prior day’s RBA-induced selling with nearly all sectors in the green, although financials underperformed. Nikkei 225 extended further above the 28k level on currency weakness and with Q1 GDP data revised upwards to a narrower contraction. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded mixed with tech fuelling the gains in Hong Kong after China’s NPPA approved the publishing licences for 60 games this month, while sentiment in the mainland gradually soured despite support efforts as an official also warned that China's foreign trade stabilisation faces uncertainties and large pressure. Top Asian News China Vice Commerce Minister Wang said China's foreign trade stabilisation faces uncertainties and a large pressure from domestic and external factors. Furthermore, he sees global demand growth as low, while he added that China will accelerate export tax rebates and MOFCOM will assist foreign trade companies in securing orders, according to Reuters. Chinese Retail Passenger Car Sales (May) +30% M/M, according to PCA's Prelim data cited by Bloomberg. Japan's CDP has, as expected, submitted a no-confidence motion against the governing administration within the Lower House, motion will be put to a vote on June 9th, via Asahi; Asahi adds that the move is not expected to go anywhere European bourses have trimmed initial upside, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, with macro newsflow limited and the initial strength primarily a continuation of APAC/Wall St. leads. In specifics, Credit Suisse (-5%) issued a Q2 profit warning for the group and its Investment Bank division while noted Retail name Inditex (+4%) provided a positive update. Stateside, futures are modestly pressured overall but well within overnight ranges ahead of a slim docket; ES -0.4%. DiDi (DIDI) is in advanced discussions to own a one-third stake of Sinomach Zhijun, a China state-backed EV maker, according to Reuters sources. Top European News Euro-Zone Economy Grew More Than Estimated at Start of Year Even the ECB’s Most Dire Forecast May Have Been Too Optimistic Euro Options Point to Most-Pivotal ECB Meeting Since 2019 Ireland Accuses Johnson of Acting in ‘Bad Faith’ on Brexit Deal Saudi Wealth Fund Makes Second $1 Billion Bet on Swedish Gaming Central banks RBI hiked the Repurchase Rate by 50bps to 4.90% (exp. 40bps hike) via unanimous decision and dropped mention of "staying accommodative", while RBI Governor Das noted that inflation has increased above upper tolerance levels and they remain focused on bringing down inflation. Das added they will control inflation without losing sight of growth and that further monetary policy measures are necessary to anchor inflation, as well as noted that upside risk to inflation had intensified and materialised sooner than expected. RBI Governor says they dropped the word "accommodative" from their stance, but they remain accommodative; liquidity withdrawal going forward will be calibrated and gradual. BoJ's Kuroda says rapid weakening of JPY as seen recently is undesirable; various macroeconomic models show that a weak JPY is positive. I It is important for FX to move stably, reflecting fundamentals. BoJ is expected to maintain its view that the domestic economy is picking up as a trend and will likely continue improving, according to Reuters sources. PBoC international department official Zhou said the PBoC will keep guiding financing costs lower, while the PBoC also announced that China will extend the trading hours of the interbank FX market, according to Reuters. FX Buck bounces as Yen rout continues after soft verbal intervention from BoJ Governor and Japanese Economy Minister; DXY back around 102.500 axis, USD.JPY climbs to circa 133.86 at one stage. More Lira depreciation on multiple negative factors including unconventional easing policy stance aimed at returning inflation to target, USD/TRY touches 17.1500. Aussie and Kiwi undermined by Greenback rebound and fade in general risk sentiment; AUD/USD loses 0.7200+ status again, NZD/USD sub-0.6450. Franc and Pound down, but Euro and Loonie resilient as former awaits ECB and latter leans on strong crude prices; USD/CHF just shy of 0.9790, Cable under 1.2550, EUR/USD probing 1.0700 and USD/CAD pivoting 1.2550. Forint and Zloty underpinned post-strong Hungarian CPI metrics and pre-NBP that is expected to hike 75bp; EUR/HUF & EUR/PLN around 389.60 and 4.5700 respectively. Fixed Income Bunds and Gilts pare some losses after testing round and half round number levels at 149.00 and 114.50 respectively, with added incentive after solid demand for 10 year German and UK supply. US Treasuries await 2032 issuance with caution given a lukewarm reception at 3 year auction. 10 year note just off base of 118-03/13 overnight range. Commodities WTI and Brent have been moving in-line with broader risk; however, following the UAE Minister the benchmarks have extended to the upside and post gains in excess of USD 1.50/bbl. US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.8mln (exp. -1.9mln), Cushing -1.8mln, Gasoline +1.8mln (exp. +1.1mln), Distillates +3.4mln (exp. +1.1mln) Brazilian government is considering measures to monitor fuel prices at distributors, according to Reuters sources. UAE Energy Minister says situation is not encouraging when it comes to the amounts of crude OPEC+ can bring to the market, via Reuters; Notes conformity with the OPEC+ deal is more than 200%, are risks when China is back, in talks with Germany and other nations to see if they are interested in UAE natgas. Spot gold is essentially unchanged, and continues to pivot its 10-DMA, while base metals are primarily tracking broader risk sentiment. US Event Calendar 07:00: June MBA Mortgage Applications -6.5%, prior -2.3% 10:00: April Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 1.7% 10:00: April Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 2.1%, prior 2.1% DB's Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap A reminder that Jim’s annual default study was released yesterday. His view is that while nothing much will change for the remainder of 2022, we might be coming to the end of the ultra-low default world discussed in previous editions. First, there’ll likely be a cyclical US recession to address in 2023, and after that, a risk that various trends reverse that have made the last 20 years so subdued for defaults. See the report here for more details. It’s been another topsy-turvy session for markets over the last 24 hours as investors look forward to the big macro events later in the week, namely the ECB tomorrow and then the US CPI print the day after. Initially it had looked like we were set for another day of higher rates, not least after the hawkish surprise from the RBA we mentioned in yesterday’s edition as they hiked by a larger-than-expected 50bps. But more negative developments subsequently dampened the mood, including an unexpected contraction in German factory orders, and then an announcement by Target (-2.31%) that they were cutting their profit outlook for the second time in three weeks. But then sentiment turned once again later in the US session, with equities seeing a late rally that put the major indices back in positive territory for the day. Against that backdrop, equities swung between gains and losses, but the S&P 500 rallied to a broad-based gain after the European close, finishing the day +0.95% higher after being as much as -1% lower following the open, with only the consumer discretionary (-0.37%) sector finishing in the red after Target updated their guidance again to now expect Q2’s operating margin to be around 2% amid price reductions to reduce inventory. For the index as a whole, it was also the first back-to-back positive start the week since in a month, that’s also seen it recover all of last week’s declines. Energy (+3.14%) was the biggest outperformer in the S&P amidst a further rise in oil prices, with Brent Crude (+0.89%) moving back above the $120/bbl mark. However, Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.28%) missed the late rally and eventually settled in negative territory. Whilst equities had a mixed session, sovereign bonds put in a more consistent performance ahead of tomorrow’s ECB decision, with decent gains posted on both sides of the Atlantic. Yields on 10yr Treasuries were down -6.6bps to 2.97%, moving back beneath 3% again, although this morning’s +2.8bps rise has taken them just back above that point to 3.001% at time of writing. Yesterday’s moves lower in yields were more pronounced at the long end of the curve, with the 2yr yield essentially flat as investors’ expectations of the near-term path of Fed rate hikes remained fairly steady. Indeed, the futures-implied rate by the December meeting was also down just -1.5bps to 2.84%. It was much the same story in Europe too of lower yields and flatter curves, as the amount of ECB tightening priced in for the rest of the year fell a modest -1.4bps from its high of 125bps the previous day. Yields on 10yr bunds (-2.9bps), OATs (-3.6bps) and gilts (-3.3bps) all fell back, and there was a noticeable decline in peripheral spreads thanks to even larger reductions in the Italian (-12.1bps) and Spanish (-7.4bps) 10yr yields. Interestingly, another trend over recent days that continued was the fall in European natural gas prices (-3.57%), which fell for a 5th consecutive session to hit its lowest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, at €79.61/MWh. Those late gains for US equities have carried over into Asia overnight, with the Hang Seng (+1.70%) the Nikkei (+0.85%) both advancing strongly. The main exception to that has been in mainland China however, where the CSI 300 (-0.41%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.70%) have just taken a tumble this morning. We’ve also seen that in US equity futures too, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.335 this morning. On the data side, the final estimate of Japan’s GDP for Q1 showed a smaller contraction than initially thought, with GDP only falling by an annualised -0.5%, which is half the -1% decline initially thought. However, the Japanese Yen has continued to weaken overnight, and is currently trading at a fresh 20-year low against the US Dollar of 133.13 per dollar. It’s also at a 7-year low against the Euro of 142.19 per euro. Here in the UK, Brexit could be back in the headlines shortly as it’s been reported by multiple outlets including Bloomberg that legislation will be introduced that would enable the UK government to override the Northern Ireland Protocol. That’s the part of the Brexit deal that avoids the need for a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, but has been a persistent source of tension between the two sides since the deal was signed, since it creates an economic border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain that Northern Irish unionists are opposed to. Irish PM Martin said yesterday that Europe would respond in a “calm and firm” way, and Bloomberg’s report suggested the draft bill could be presented to the House of Commons tomorrow. Looking at yesterday’s data releases, German factory orders for April unexpectedly saw a -2.7% contraction (vs. +0.4% expansion expected). That was the third consecutive monthly decline, and was driven by a -4.0% decline in foreign orders. On the other hand, the final PMIs from the UK for May were revised up relative to the flash readings, with the composite PMI at 53.1 (vs. flash 51.8), helping sterling to strengthen +0.48% against the US Dollar. Finally, the World Bank yesterday became the latest body to downgrade their global growth forecast, now projecting a +2.9% rise in GDP for 2022 compared to their 4.1% estimate put out in January, and openly warned about the risk of stagflation. To the day ahead now, and it’s a fairly quiet one on the calendar, but data releases include German industrial production and Italian retail sales for April, as well as the UK construction PMI for May and the final reading of US wholesale inventories for April. Tyler Durden Wed, 06/08/2022 - 08:09.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytJun 8th, 2022

Futures Slide As Sell-The-Rippers Emerge, Encouraged By Target"s Dismal Update

Futures Slide As Sell-The-Rippers Emerge, Encouraged By Target's Dismal Update It was a relatively quiet session for stocks with futures trading modestly lower overnight as yields eased their Monday surge and when the biggest news was Australia's unexpected 50bps rate hike (double consensus) before all hell broke loose at 7am, when Target cut guidance for the second time in two weeks due to the infamous bullwhip effect we had warned about just a few weeks ago, sending TGT stock crashing more than 9% and encouraging the cold risk-off wind that pushed S&P futures 0.8% lower to session lows around 4,080... ... while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1% as Treasury yields hovered around 3.05%, their highest in nearly a month. Europe's Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped as telecom and technology stocks weighed. In the premarket, shares of Target tumbled as much as 10% after the retailer cut its profit outlook for the second time in three weeks amid an inventory surplus. The news sent retailers such as Walmart and Costco also sliding premarket; WMT was down as much as 4.3% ahead of the bell, COST -2.9%, Kroger -1.3%, Macy’s -3%. Among other notable movers, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks tumbled in premarket trading as Bitcoin slid back below $30,000. Meanwhile Kohl’s shares rose 12% in premarket trading as the company holds exclusive talks with Franchise Group regarding a deal that would value the retail chain at about $8 billion. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks decline in premarket trading as Bitcoin slides back below $30,000, with another attempt at upward momentum losing traction amid risk-off markets. Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) -5%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) -3.7%. Kohl’s (KSS US) shares jump 12% in US premarket trading as the company holds exclusive talks with Franchise Group regarding a deal that would value the retail chain at about $8 billion. Peloton’s (PTON US) shares rose 1.4% in US after-hours trading on Monday. Former vice president of Amazon Web Services Liz Coddingtonis “well-positioned” to help Peloton in its next stage of growing subscribers, Citi says, after the exercise machine maker appointed Coddington CFO. Gitlab (GTLB US) shares rose 9.8% in postmarket trading on Monday after the software company’s first-quarter report. HealthEquity (HQY US) shares climbed 5.8% in postmarket Monday. It boosted its revenue guidance for the full year as its results beat the average analyst estimate in what RBC analyst Sean Dodgesaid could be the start of a years-long upside driven by rising interest rates. ProFrac (PFHC US) shares could be active after analysts initiated coverage of oil services firm with three overweight ratings and one buy, with both Piper Sandler and Morgan Stanley positive on the company’s valuation and vertical business model. Veru Inc. (VERU US) gained 2.8% in postmarket trading after Tang Capital Partners LPdisclosed a 5.2% passive stake in the firm. On Monday, investors once again sold the rip, showing their reluctance to take on risk amid fears policy to subdue inflation will go overboard and kill off economic recoveries, rather than cooling off price pressures in a so-called soft landing. “This debate around ‘are we going to see a recession, are we going to see a soft landing?’ -- that’s really keeping markets relatively range bound,” Laura Cooper, a senior investment strategist at BlackRock Inc., said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “We likely need to see a dovish pivot from policymakers to really have conviction that we’re going to a sustained rally in equities." Rising bond yields are adding to worries about risks to economic growth as central banks ratchet up policy tightening. US benchmark Treasury yields stabilized near 3%, a psychological threshold that may burden new supply due this week before crucial inflation data. “The combo of declining growth, rising rates and falling liquidity is pretty ugly for equities,” said James Athey, investment director at abrdn. “Reluctant as investors in those market are to admit, the outlook for multiples and earnings isn’t great and is probably getting worse.” Meanwhile, Friday's CPI reading for May will be crucial for clues on the Federal Reserve’s pace of monetary tightening, especially the clothing and apparel component where we expect prices to plunge amid the inventory liquidation. Strong hiring data last week already cleared the way for the central bank to remain aggressive in its fight against inflation by raising interest rates. Higher rates particularly hurt growth sectors that are valued on future profits, like tech.  In Europe, the benchmark Stoxx 600 Index also resumed losses on Tuesday led by drops of more than 1% in technology and travel shares. European equities traded poorly with several indexes giving back over half of Monday’s gains. Euro Stoxx 50 drops as much as 0.8%, cash DAX underperforming at the margin. Tech, retail and telecoms are the weakest Stoxx 600 sectors. FTSE 100 trades flat.  The European Central Bank on Thursday is set to end trillions of euros of asset purchases and cement a path to exiting eight years of negative interest rates. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined with chipmakers coming under pressure as traders reassessed the outlook for demand, offsetting Japan’s boost from a weak yen. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.2%, with TSMC and Samsung Electronics the biggest drags. Most sectors traded lower, while some Chinese internet giants and Japanese automakers were among the notable gainers. Tech hardware stocks fell as worries about demand for handsets and other gadgets outweighed hopes for a recovery in China on the easing of Covid lockdowns. South Korean equities dropped as the market reopened after a holiday, while shares in Australia slumped after the Reserve Bank of Australia blindsided the market with an outsized hike to combat rising costs. The RBA responded to price pressures with its biggest rate increase in 22 years -- predicted by just three of 29 economists -- and indicated it remained committed to “doing what is necessary” to rein in inflationary pressures. There are persistent worries about demand for semiconductors as the market consensus is that a demand slowdown for handsets and other consumer electronics is highly likely,” said Lee Jinwoo, chief strategist at Meritz Securities in Seoul. Most Chinese tech stocks finished lower in volatile trading after climbing Monday following a report that regulators are concluding their investigation of transport firm Didi. Japanese shares rose as the yen weakened to its lowest level in two decades, boosting exporters such as Toyota and Honda. Read: Yen Slides to Two-Decade Low, Reigniting Focus on Intervention Asian stocks are down in June after posting their first monthly gain in five months in May. Traders will be assessing the inflation and growth outlook ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week while monitoring the state of Covid restrictions in China.  “Stock market valuations have de-rated quite significantly and from our perspective, there is a lot of the bad news largely in the price. Possibly there’s more to go,” Chetan Seth, Asia Pacific equity strategist at Nomura Holdings said at a conference in Singapore In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot rises as much as 0.4% and the dollar was steady or higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers; NOK is the weakest G-10 performer. JPY softness extends, briefly trading at 133/USD. The yen extended its slump to a fresh 20- year low near 132.60/USD as BOJ’s Kuroda continued to emphasize persistent easing commitment. Senior Japanese government officials said they were closely watching currency markets with a sense of urgency Tuesday as they returned to a heightened state of alert following a renewed slide in the yen to fresh two-decade lows. The dollar’s steep rally to the 133 handle versus the yen and the Australian central bank’s biggest rate hike in 22 years make the case for long-volatility exposure in the major currencies and traders follow suit. The pound fell to an almost three-week low versus the greenback before paring losses to trade around $1.25. The gilt yield curve bull flattened. The euro was little changed, trading around $1.07. Bunds and European bonds reversed opening losses even as wagers earlier crossed half the way toward calling a historic half-point. In rates, treasuries swung from losses to gains, sending yields as much as 3bps lower as the yield curve flattened. Treasury futures rose led led by the long-end amid weakness in European stocks and S&P 500 futures.Bloomberg notes that gains were helped by block trade in 10-year note futures as cash yield eases back toward 3%. US yields were richer by nearly 3bp across long-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s by ~1bp; 10-year, down ~2bp to 3.02%, outperforms bunds slightly, while gilt is little changed. German bunds outperform, richening ~3bps from the 5y point out, gilts are relatively quiet. Peripheral spreads are slightly tighter to core, semi-core widens a touch. Australian bond yields soared and the Aussie briefly reversed a loss after the central bank surprised investors by raising its cash rate by 50 basis points -- the biggest increase in 22 years -- to 0.85%, a result predicted by just three of 29 economists. It also committed itself to “doing what is necessary” to rein in inflationary pressures. In commodities, crude futures drift higher with WTI near $120 and Brent back around $122. Spot gold adds ~$6 to near $1,847/oz. Base metals are in the red with LME nickel down over 3%. Bitcoin is pressured and back below the USD 30k mark and incrementally below last week's trough of USD 29.04k. Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include German factory orders for April, the final UK services and composite PMI for May, as well as the US trade balance and consumer credit for April. Otherwise central bank speakers include the ECB’s Wunsch. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 4,106.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 442.31 MXAP down 0.9% to 167.50 MXAPJ down 1.1% to 552.94 Nikkei up 0.1% to 27,943.95 Topix up 0.4% to 1,947.03 Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 21,531.67 Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,241.76 Sensex down 1.2% to 55,018.56 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.5% to 7,095.74 Kospi down 1.7% to 2,626.34 Brent Futures up 0.3% to $119.88/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,843.79 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.10% to 102.54 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.30% Euro little changed at $1.0694 Top Overnight News The ECB will begin a new era of monetary policy this week as officials complete their pivot to confront the threat of inflation running out of control. Armed with new forecasts and with prices rising at a record pace, President Christine Lagarde and her colleagues will end trillions of euros of asset purchases and cement a path to exiting eight years of negative interest rates The yen has tumbled to a two-decade low against the dollar, caught in the crossfire between the two wildly different monetary policy regimes in Japan and the US. The Bank of Japan is pinning interest rates to zero in a bid to boost a sputtering economy and spur price growth, while the Federal Reserve is hiking furiously to beat back raging inflation Investors from Tokyo to New York are betting on further weakness in Japan’s currency, which is already wallowing at a two-decade low against the greenback Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda walked back some of his comments that consumers are now more willing to accept higher prices after criticism on social media and a grilling in parliament A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded cautiously amid recent upside in yields and ahead of upcoming risk events. ASX 200 declined with losses exacerbated after the RBA delivered a larger-than-expected rate hike. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses although a weak JPY boosted the index above 28k. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were varied as the mainland was kept afloat by reopening optimism and with Hong Kong subdued by property names, although tech benefitted from hopes Beijing may be easing its crackdown on the sector with China reportedly to conclude the cybersecurity probe into certain companies. Top Asian News China's Tianjin city reopened all subway stations that were closed due to COVID, while Shanghai Port's daily volume rose to 95% of the normal level, according to local press. Labor Advisory Committee urged US President Biden to extend China tariffs, according to Axios. Japan set up a team to monitor land sales near bases and nuclear plants or on strategically located islands under a new law designed to prevent hostile foreigners from affecting national security, according to Nikkei. RBA hiked rates by 50bps to 0.85% (exp. 25bps increase) and said inflation in Australia has increased significantly, while it is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to the target over time. RBA added that inflation is likely to be higher than was expected a month ago and the Board expects to take further steps in normalising monetary conditions over the months ahead with the size and timing of future interest rate increases to be guided by the incoming data and the assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market. Furthermore, it noted the Australian Economy is resilient although one source of uncertainty about the economic outlook is how household spending evolves, given the increasing pressure on Australian households' budgets from higher inflation. Japan's Economy Minister Yamagiwa says they are closely watching any impact of FX movements on the economy, wants to refrain from commenting on FX levels, via Reuters. European bourses are modestly pressured, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9% , with newsflow relatively limited once more and participants looking ahead to the week's risks events. Stateside, performance is in-fitting with this directionally, though marginally more contained in terms of magnitudes, with a limited US docket ahead; ES -0.5%. EU lawmakers have come to an agreement on a single mobile charging point, via Reuters; will be USB-C by fall-2024. Top European News UK PM Johnson won the confidence vote, as expected, with total votes at 211 vs 148, according to Reuters. However, the Telegraph highlights that Johnson is not "out of the woods yet" given that he has lost the support of so many backbenchers. UK PM Johnson said he is grateful for colleagues' support and that they need to come together as a party now. PM Johnson added that they can now focus on what they are doing to help people in the country and have a chance to continue strengthening the economy, while he responded that is certainly not interested when asked about a snap election, according to Reuters. Subsequently, the 1922 Committee is, according to the understanding of UK MP Ellwood, looking at altering party rules to allow another no-confidence vote within a one-year period, via Sky's Degenhardt. Barclaycard UK May consumer spending rose 9.3% Y/Y, which reflected the rising cost of living and base effects, according to Reuters. FX Dollar takes time out after rallying further on yield factors and frailty of others, DXY midway between 102.830-450 range. Yen continues to underperform on rate and relative BoJ policy dynamics, with Franc also feeling the heat from SNB vs Fed, ECB etc policy divergence; USD/JPY touches 133.00 before easing back, USD/CHF tops 0.9675 and EUR/CHF crosses 1.0400. Kiwi hit by abrupt turnaround in AUD/NZD tide after RBA exceeded market expectations with a 50bp hike compounded by hawkish guidance; NZD/USD sub-0.6500 around 0.6450, AUD/NZD above 1.1100 and AUD/USD within sight of 0.7200. Sterling volatile after PM Johnson wins confidence vote, but significant minority of Conservative Party want him out; Cable choppy either side of 1.2500 and EUR/GBP whipsaws around 0.8550. Loonie softer with oil ahead of Canadian trade data and Ivey PMIs, USD/CAD near 1.2600 after probe beyond round number. Lira continues to slide after Turkish President Erdogan repeats intention to keep cutting rates irrespective of ongoing rise in inflation, USD/TRY tests 14.7500. Fixed Income Firm bounce in bonds following extension of bear run to new cycle lows. Bunds lead the way in core debt circles with a near full point recovery to 149.80, while BTPs remain to the fore at the margins between 121.27-122.86 bounds. Gilts flat after falling short of 115.00 before solid 2025 DMO auction, T-note a tad firmer and curve flatter for choice ahead of 3 year sale. Commodities Crude benchmarks have waned from initial upside stemming from bullish bank commentary amid a broader easing in risk sentiment. Thus far, WTI and Brent have been as low as USD 117.76/bbl and USD 118.62/bbl respectively, circa. USD 2.00/bbl from initial highs. Goldman Sachs hiked its Q3 Brent oil forecast to USD 140/bbl from USD 125/bbl and increased its Q4 forecast to USD 130/bbl from USD 125/bbl. Morgan Stanley's base case view is for Brent to reach USD 130/bbl during Q3 with an upside to the bull case estimate of USD 150/bbl. Spot gold languished near the prior day's lows amid a firmer greenback. JPMorgan continues to see gold trading softer towards USD 1,800/oz in Q3 2022 on an expected rebound in investor risk sentiment and continued push higher in US yields. Spot gold is firmer but capped by USD 1850/oz, which now coincides with its 10-DMA, after losing the level late on Monday; base metals are generally pressured, amid risk aversion and following yesterday's price action. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Revisions: Trade Balance 8:30am: April Trade Balance, est. -$89.5b, prior -$109.8b 3pm: April Consumer Credit, est. $35b, prior $52.4b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Yesterday I published the 24th Annual Default Study. While nothing much will change for the remainder of 2022, we think we might be coming to the end of the ultra-low default world we’ve discussed so much in previous editions. First, we will likely have a cyclical US recession to address in 2023, and after that, a risk of the reversal of trends that have made the last 20 years so subdued for defaults. We see US HY defaults peaking at just over 10% in 2024 with Europe just under 7% helped by a higher BB weighting. After that we see many of the trends of the last couple of decades reversing, helping to leave the ultra-low default era behind. You can read all about this in the note but these factors include: higher structural inflation, less ability for central banks to be as aggressive across all fixed income - they will be forced to pick their battles (eg Peripherals), less global FX reserve accumulation, a turn up in the free float of global government bonds, higher term premium, a structural fall from peak corporate profits, and shorter gaps between recessions. None of this need be a disaster just a change in the long-term trend. Clearly our view relies a lot on inflation being sticky and helping set off a 2023 recession and then remaining sticky after this, and thus changing the landscape of the last 20 years. If we’re wrong on both, the ultra-low default world will survive. See the report here. The biggest story yesterday was a surge in yields but before we get there, a big curiousity to those of us in the UK, albeit with very limited implications for global markets, was the confidence vote last night for Prime Minister Boris Johnson from within his own party. That came after the threshold of 15% of his own MPs called for a vote, and the final result saw him win by just 211-148, meaning that 41% of his own party’s MPs voted against him. For reference, that’s more than the 37% of MPs who voted against his predecessor Theresa May in a similar vote in December 2018, and it was only 5 months later that she announced her resignation after failing to deliver Brexit and witnessing a dramatic turn in the Conservatives’ poll ratings. The next big hurdle for Johnson will likely be two by-elections on June 23rd, one of which is in a “Red Wall” seat that the Conservatives gained off Labour for the first time in decades to win their majority at the last election, whilst the other is in a traditionally safe Devon seat for the Conservatives but where the bookmakers have the Liberal Democrats as the favourite to win. So bad showings in those two would keep questions about Johnson’s leadership in the headlines and further intensify the pressure on him. In theory the Conservative leadership rules give him another year before a repeat confidence vote can happen, but history tells us that once this process gets set in motion it is incredibly difficult to reverse the negative momentum, and both Theresa May and Margaret Thatcher resigned well within a year even though they also won a majority of their own MPs at the confidence vote. Sterling actually climbed around +0.5% in the morning as the vote was officially triggered before giving back half these gains as the day progressed. However even after the surprise result at 9pm last night Sterling didn't move, and this morning it’s just -0.09% lower, trading at 1.252 against the US dollar. Back to the main event, which was the global rates sell-off, where 10yr Treasury yields poked back up above 3% for the first time in nearly a month, whilst European yields hit fresh multi-year highs of their own ahead of this Thursday’s ECB meeting. There’ve been a couple of catalysts behind those moves higher, but a key one over the last week and a half has been the perception that near-term recession risks (at least in 2022) are fading back again, which in turn is set to give central banks the space to continue hiking rates and thus take bond yields higher. On top of that, the fact that recent inflation data has proven stickier than expected has also pushed yields higher, and investors are eagerly awaiting to see if we get another upside surprise from the US CPI reading out on Friday. All-in-all, those moves sent the 10yr Treasury yield up by +10.3bps yesterday to 3.04%, with a rise in real yields of +8.3bps behind the bulk of the move. That came as investors dialled back up their bets on Fed tightening over the rest of the year, with the implied rate by the December FOMC meeting at a 1-month high of 2.85%, whilst the rate priced in by the Feb-2023 meeting went back above 3% for the first time in a month as well. But it was in Europe where there were even more significant milestones, with the amount of ECB rate hikes priced in by December exceeding 125bps for the first time, meaning that markets are fully pricing in at least one 50bp hike by year-end, assuming the ECB begins liftoff at the July meeting. That prospect of a 50bp hike from the ECB sent yields on 10yr bunds up +4.9bps to 1.32%, which is their highest level since mid-2014, whilst the German 2yr yield (+3.0bps) hit its highest level since 2011. It was a similar picture elsewhere on the continent, with yields on 10yr OATs (+4.1bps) at a post-2014 high, and those on 10yr BTPs (+1.3bps) at a post-2018 high. Gilts underperformed however, with 10yr yields up +9.2bps as investors moved to price in at least one 50bp hike from the BoE by year-end. Those moves have gained further momentum overnight after the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates by a larger-than-expected 50bps, helping 10yr Treasury yields to rise a further +1.9bps this morning to hit 3.06%. Their statement also pointed to further tightening ahead, and said that they expect “to take further steps in the process of normalizing monetary conditions in Australia over the months ahead”, and that they were “committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to target over time.” Unsurprisingly, the Australian dollar is also the top-performing G10 currency this morning, up +0.50% against the US Dollar. The strong rise in bond yields wasn’t enough to stop equities from posting a decent start to the week, although they did pare back their initial gains following the US open. By the close, the S&P 500 (+0.31%) had held onto a broad-based advance, with 8 of 11 sectors advancing, even after paring back gains as high as +1.5% in the morning. Tech stocks fared slightly better than the broader index, with the NASDAQ gaining +0.40%. The clearest split was between mega- and small-cap shares, as mega-cap shares were clear outperformers as the FANG+ Index ended the day +1.68% higher while the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.36%) lagged behind. It was much the same story in Europe too, where the STOXX 600 (+0.92%), the DAX (+1.34%) and the CAC 40 (+0.98%) all moved higher as well. Whilst equities were making further gains, there wasn’t much respite on the inflation side since commodities continued their advance, with Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (+1.86%) hitting a fresh record on the back of the latest moves. Admittedly, Brent Crude (-0.18%) and WTI (-0.31%) oil prices fell back slightly, and we also saw European natural gas prices (-1.75%) fall to their lowest levels since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. But US natural gas prices surged another +8.37% to a fresh post-2008 high, whilst agricultural goods also saw some serious movements, with futures on corn (+2.13%), wheat (+5.10%) and sugar (+1.40%) all rising on the day. This morning we’ve seen even further momentum behind commodity prices, with Brent crude moving back above the $120/bbl mark thanks to a +0.69% gain. Overnight in Asia, equity markets have put in a pretty mixed performance as they grappled with that monetary tightening mentioned above. The Nikkei (+0.51%), the CSI 300 (+0.65%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.48%) have all moved higher, but the Hang Seng (-0.12%) has posted a marginal decline and the Kospi (-1.37%) has lost significant ground. Meanwhile in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 has deepened its loses since the RBA’s hawkish decision, and is currently down -1.63%, whilst futures in the US are also pointing lower, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.59% this morning. On the FX side, we’ve also seen the Japanese Yen fall to a 20-year low against the US Dollar of 131.88 by the close yesterday, and this morning it’s lost further ground to hit 132.86. That comes as the BoJ stands out among its global peers in not tightening policy, which is leading to a widening interest rate differential as other central banks continue hiking. Finally we started on credit so let's end there too before the day ahead preview. Our colleagues in the European Leveraged Finance Research team have just published their quarterly top trade ideas. You can find the report here. To the day ahead now, and data releases include German factory orders for April, the final UK services and composite PMI for May, as well as the US trade balance and consumer credit for April. Otherwise central bank speakers include the ECB’s Wunsch. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/07/2022 - 08:03.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 7th, 2022

Futures Rise For The First Time This Week As Oil Slumps

Futures Rise For The First Time This Week As Oil Slumps US futures advanced for the first time this week, as investors tentatively bought the dip and were cheered by a drop in oil prices. S&P 500 futures were 0.6% higher by 7:30 am in New York, while Nasdaq 100 futs gained 0.7%. Already light trading volumes are even lower, with UK markets shut for a long weekend holiday to mark Queen Elizabeth II’s Platinum Jubilee. Stocks slumped Wednesday after JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s warning to investors to prepare for an economic “hurricane”, reversing his cheerful comments from just one week earlier, and disagreeing with JPMorgan’s permabullish strategist, Marko Kolanovic, who expects stocks to rebound by the end of the year and the US to avoid recession. Treasuries held losses, with 10-year yields above 2.90%. The dollar slipped while the yen held near 130 per dollar after its recent decline on the prospect of widening interest rate differentials with the US. Oil dropped on a rehashed report - this time from the FT which echoed an almost verbatim report from the WSJ one day earlier - that Saudi Arabia could pump more crude should Russian output drop substantially due to increasing sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. It could, of course, but it won't for various reasons we will discuss in a post shortly. In any case, OPEC+ meeting members are set to meet Thursday for their monthly gathering where no break up of OPEC+ is going to happen. It seems that #OPEC+ will continue its current policy of monthly increases until September, after which, depending on the market conditions, production limits will be lifted. In any case, we expect to see another lackluster meeting, as in previous months./3 #OOTT — Reza Zandi (@R_Zandi) June 2, 2022 Oil’s decline helped to steady sentiment after US manufacturing activity and job openings data Wednesday fueled concern the Federal Reserve will need to get more restrictive to slow runaway price gains. “There’s been a large correction in some stocks; those corrections led to valuations that are way more attractive that can benefit medium-to long-term investors, especially in Europe and the emerging-markets space,” Vanguard Asset Services Ltd. Investment Strategist Giulio Renzi Ricci said on Bloomberg TV, summarizing prevailing sentiment among the BTFD crowd. In premarket trading, bank stocks are higher as the US 10-year Treasury yield rises for a third straight day to about 2.91%. Elsewhere, Repare Therapeutics will be in focus as shares soared 20% in postmarket after it announced a worldwide license and collaboration agreement with Roche for Camonsertib, while GameStop reported mixed results in the first quarter as it shifts to cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens. In corporate news, tech-bloated hedge fund Tiger Global Management’s losses for the year reached 51.8% amid turbulent markets. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE US) drops as much as 8.1% in US premarket trading on Thursday after the computer hardware and storage company lowered its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year. Chewy (CHWY US) shares are up 16% in pre- market trading after the online pet products retailer reported quarterly adjusted Ebitda and net sales that topped analysts’ expectations. Jefferies called the results “impressive.” NetApp Inc. (NTAP US) shares gained in extended trading Wednesday. Analysts remain cautious about the outlook for the cloud business after the storage hardware and software company reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings that were higher than analysts’ expectations. C3.ai Inc. (AI US) tumbled 22% postmarket after the AI software company forecast revenue for fiscal 2023 that fell short of estimates. Piper Sandler’s analyst Arvind Ramnani cut his recommendation to neutral from overweight. Veeva (VEEV US)shares advanced 4.2% in postmarket trading Wednesday as it lifted its revenue forecast for the full year. Investors have been on edge over when (not whether) the US central bank’s tighter policies will induce a recession. A chorus of Fed officials has fallen behind calls to keep hiking to counter price pressures. Mary Daly of the San Francisco Fed and her more hawkish colleague James Bullard of St. Louis both backed a plan to raise rates by 50 basis points this month, while Richmond’s Thomas Barkin said it made “perfect sense” to tighten policy. “We do see the rise in probability of a recession in the second half of this year, potentially persisting into 2023 as the Fed continues to battle inflation,” Tracie McMillion, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global asset allocation strategy, said on Bloomberg Television. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index advanced amid low session volumes with the London market closed in commemoration of the Queen’s Jubilee festivities. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Remy Cointreau shares advance as much as 5.6% after the spirits company reported FY earnings that Morgan Stanley called “reassuring.” Peer Pernod Ricard also climb, as much as 3.1%. Calliditas Therapeutics rise as much as 16% after Pareto Securities initiated with a buy recommendation, calling the Swedish biotechnology firm “highly undervalued” and a potential acquisition target. European energy stocks underperformed as oil slipped following a report that Saudi Arabia is ready to pump more should Russian output decline substantially. Earlier in the session, Asian markets were dragged lower by the technology sector, as strong US economic data bolstered the case for aggressive interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.2% as most sectors fell, with tech shares including TSMC and Alibaba among the biggest drags. South Korea led declines in the region as traders returned from a holiday, while China stocks eked out gains after authorities urged banks to set up a 800 billion yuan ($120 billion) line of credit for infrastructure projects.  An unexpected advance in US manufacturing activity and still-high job openings added to investor concerns about monetary tightening in the country and its impact on global growth. James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed urged policy makers to raise interest rates to 3.5% this year to try and curb inflation. The US policy outlook adds to pressure on Asian firms, whose earnings prospects have dimmed on higher costs and China’s economic slowdown. The MSCI regional benchmark is down 13% this year, largely tracking the S&P 500’s 14% loss. “We do think near term it’s likely to be bumpy,” Sunil Koul, Apac equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg Television. “This combination of quantitative tightening, raising rates, combined with some growth risks we are seeing and a stronger dollar is what is causing pain in the markets.” Japanese stocks fell as the persistent risk of global inflation and the prospects of tighter monetary policy in the US damped sentiment.  The Topix closed 0.6% lower at 1,926.39 at the 3pm close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 0.2% to 27,413.88. Sony Group contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, decreasing 3.2%. Out of 2,171 shares in the index, 675 rose and 1,402 fell, while 94 were unchanged. “There are still worries over inflation in the US and rate hikes, so it will be quite hard for stocks to enter an upward trend,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, a senior strategist at Asset Management One.  Stocks in India overcame concerns over hawkish central bank moves to snap two days of declines as a drop in oil prices and attractive valuations buoyed investors. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.8% to 55,818.11 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.6%. Reliance Industries provided the biggest boost to the key gauges, surging 3.5%, followed by software majors Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services.  Of the 30 member stocks on the Sensex, 20 rose, while 10 declined. All but four of the 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd., rose, led by a measure of energy companies. Stocks in Asia were mostly lower after strong US economic data bolstered the case for aggressive interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. However, the trend soon changed as investors assessed attractive valuations, while crude oil slid to $113 a barrel before the monthly OPEC+ meeting later today. “Nifty valuations are now at a sweet spot where they offer good potential returns,” DSP Mutual Fund said in note. About half of the NSE Nifty 500 Index’s members have corrected more than 30%, which creates selective opportunities, the asset manager said. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.8% to close at 7,175.90, following US shares lower after Fed officials reinforced a hawkish stance and JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon cautioned on the economy. Megaport led a drop in technology shares. Woodside was the top performer after a block trade. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 11,349.54. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar spot Index fell as the greenback traded weaker against all of its Group-of-10 peers. The euro snapped two days of losses and approached $1.07. One-week options in euro-dollar now capture the next ECB meeting, and implied volatility in the euro heads for its strongest close since mid-May. The pound retraced about half of Wednesday’s loss, with UK markets shut for a holiday. Australia’s bonds dropped amid speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia will follow its Canadian counterpart and keep raising rates aggressively. The yen fell to a three-week low before reversing losses. US Treasuries were flat in early US trading as equity futures rose for the first time this week. The 10Y Yield is trading unch at 2.91%, outperforming most euro-zone counterparts, with 2- to 5-year yields cheaper by 1bp-2bp with 10- to 30-year yields little changed, flattening 5s30s by ~2bp. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; nine borrowers priced $14.6b Wednesday, largest daily total since May 17. European bonds posted modest losses after a steady start. As noted above, crude oil slid on a report that Saudi Arabia is ready to pump more oil if Russian output declines. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet to discuss supply policy, where it is not expected to surprise anyone. At last check, Brent was trading just above $113, and although the benchmark lifted around $1/bbl off of its overnight troughs, this has marginally pulled back. Looking at the day ahead, the economic data slate includes May Challenger job cuts (7:30am), ADP employment change (8:15am), 1Q final nonfarm productivity and initial jobless claims (8:30am) and April factory orders (10am). Fed speakers slated include Logan (12pm) and Mester (1pm). Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.5% STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% MXAP down 0.7% to 167.84 MXAPJ down 0.8% to 552.13 Nikkei down 0.2% to 27,413.88 Topix down 0.6% to 1,926.39 Hang Seng Index down 1.0% to 21,082.13 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,195.46 Sensex up 0.8% to 55,825.08 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 7,175.94 Kospi down 1.0% to 2,658.99 German 10Y yield up 2bps to 1.21% Euro up 0.4% to $1.0689 Brent futures down 2.3% to $113.65/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,851.88 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 102.23 Top Overnight News President Joe Biden is likely to visit Saudi Arabia later this month as part of an international trip for NATO and Group of Seven meetings, according to people familiar with the matter, with record high US gas prices weighing on his party’s political prospects The ECB must pare back stimulus as inflation is too strong and too broad, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said EU efforts to approve a partial ban on Russian oil imports hit an obstacle after Hungary raised new or already rejected demands, further slowing a push to clinch a deal, according to people familiar with the negotiations The pound is coming off the first positive month of 2022, but the mood in the market is as bleak as ever. Scorching inflation, an economy teetering on the edge of recession and a scandal-prone government are feeding into a view that the UK currency is vulnerable After years of pushing exports to China and building up energy links to Russia, Germany’s economy faces a poisonous cocktail of risks. Its heavy reliance on manufacturing makes it more vulnerable than European peers to war-related disruptions in Russian energy supplies and bottlenecks in trade. The upshot is risk of contraction and even higher prices squeezing unsettled consumers Beijing is turning to state-owned policy banks once again to help rescue an economy under strain, ordering them to provide 800 billion yuan ($120 billion) in funding for infrastructure projects Chinese officials have vowed to carry out a slew of government policies to stimulate growth following Premier Li Keqiang’s recent call to avoid a Covid- fueled economic contraction this quarter A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks followed suit to the subdued performance seen in global peers after the recent upside in yields and hawkish central bank rhetoric. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and weakness in financials, with sentiment also not helped by frictions with China. Nikkei 225 lacked firm direction with automakers indecisive following sharp declines in their US sales last month. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed ahead of the Dragon Boast Festival tomorrow and with Hong Kong suffering from notable losses in property names and tech, while losses in the mainland were pared amid COVID-related optimism and after the latest support efforts in which Beijing announced CNY 800bln of increased credit quotas for state-owned policy banks to fund the construction of infrastructure projects. Top Asian News China's Ambassador to Australia said that Beijing is prepared to talk with Australia without preconditions but added that trade sanctions on Australia will not be removed until there is an improvement in the political relationship, according to AFR. China's Global Times tweeted that Chinese Coast Guard vessels patrolled the territorial waters off the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku Islands) on Thursday, which is a disputed territory with Japan. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno confirmed that the government wants to increase the average minimum wage to JPY 1000, according to Reuters. China's Commerce Ministry, on the US considering adding additional firms to the blacklist, says they will adopt measures to protect Chinese firms. A group of nations are to make a request for an international labour organisation mission to China to probe alleged violation in Xinjiang at a meeting today, according to Reuters sources. Chinese Officials Vow to Carry Out Plans for Economic Stimulus Toshiba Reveals Buyout Bids as Privatization Chances Rise Hong Kong Quarantine Backtrack Stokes Fears of Covid Zero Return European bourses are posting modest gains, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%, though volumes are lighter given UK Spring Bank Holiday. Stateside, futures are firmer across the board, ES +0.5%, with action similarly contained ahead of a busy PM docket featuring ADP and Fed's Mester. Top European News Deutsche Bank CEO’s Fixer Hoops Takes Another Leap as DWS Chief Ukraine Latest: Russia Ready to Settle Eurobond Payment Claims Euro Options Into ECB Meeting Are Now Most Overpriced in a Month Swiss Exchange Investigates Swissquote for Disclosure Delay FX Pound pounces on Dollar downturn to reclaim 1.2500 handle as UK prepares for Platinum Jubilee celebrations. DXY sub-102.500 amidst broad bounce in index components led by Franc initially; USD/CHF reverses around 0.9600 axis in wake of Swiss inflation data showing bigger overshoot vs SNB targets. Euro eyes 1.0700, but capped by hefty option expiry interest from round number up to 1.0740. Kiwi and Aussie boosted by recovery in risk sentiment, but Loonie lags as WTI sags on reports of Saudi Arabia standing ready to cover any shortfall in Russian oil output; NZD/USD probes 0.6500, AUD/USD approaches 0.7200 and Usd/Cad 1.2650+ Yen retrieves some losses as Greenback retreats and US Treasury yields slip from peaks ahead of busy pm agenda, USD/JPY circa 129.70 compared to 130.24 overnight peak. Fixed Income Bunds and Eurozone peers extend recent losing streak to set deeper cycle lows in futures/high yields, without Liffe support and despite steady US Treasuries. 10 year German benchmark down to 150.29 and 1.21%+ in cash terms. Multi-tranche Spanish and French issuance draw mixed covers irrespective of concession. T-note holds around par within 118-30+/18+ range awaiting slew of US data and more Fed speakers. Commodities WTI and Brent remain pressured after overnight FT reports re. Saudi being prepared to pump more oil if Russian output declines. Though, the benchmarks have lifted around USD 1/bbl off of their respective overnight troughs at best; however, this has marginally pulled back. Reminder, the JMMC commences from 13:00BST/08:00ET with the OPEC+ event following ~30-minutes later. US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -1.2mln (exp. -1.4mln), Gasoline -0.3mln (exp. +0.5mln), Distillate +0.9mln (exp. +1.0mln), Cushing +0.2mln. Norway's Hammerfest liquefied natural gas plant has restarted LNG production following a fire 20 months ago, according to Equinor (EQNR NO). Spot gold is bid but has failed to gain much additional traction after breaching USD 1850/oz and the 10-DMA at USD 1851.3/oz; base metals are bid ahead of the long Chinese weekend for Dragon Boat Festival. US Event Calendar 8:15am: U.S. ADP Employment Change, May, est. 300k, prior 247k 8:30am: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, May 28, est. 210k, prior 210k; Continuing Claims, May 21, est. 1340k, prior 1346k 8:30am: U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, 1Q F, est. -7.5%, prior -7.5% 10am: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, April F, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4% 10am: U.S. Factory Orders, April, est. 0.6%, prior 2.2%, revised prior 1.8%; -Less Transportation, April F, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3% 10am: U.S. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, April F, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3% 10am: U.S. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, April F, no est., prior 0.8% DB's Tim Wessel concludes the overnight wrap Filling in while the UK is on holiday, I hope my use of “Z’s” and neglect of “U’s” does not prove jarring to regular readers. The start of the month was jarring to many asset holders, as bond and equities both sold off with more evidence that labor markets are historically tight while inflation remains well above target. Meanwhile, the Fed’s beige book provided anecdotes of slowing growth in some districts, while a majority of districts had respondents expecting growth to slow in the near future. St. Louis Fed President and Hawk Emeritus James Bullard joined San Francisco Fed President to echo previous Fed communications that policy would expeditiously get to neutral, while the CEO of J.P. Morgan gave the gloomy growth narrative his imprimatur. The mix drove policy pricing higher and all but one sector in the S&P lower. North of the border, the Bank of Canada hiked rates another +50bps, layering hawkish guidance into the statement such as “the risk of elevated inflation becoming entrenched has risen.” While in Europe, ECB Governing Council member Holzmann sang the virtues of a +50bp hike (in line with our Europe team’s updated ECB call, found here). Stepping through the developments. The rate selloff began in earnest following the mid-morning data dump in the US, which included May ISM manufacturing and April JOLTS data. The ISM print surprised to the upside at 56.1 versus expectations of 54.5, while prices paid printed at 82.2 versus expectations of 81.0. Meanwhile, the JOLTS data across quits, hiring, and opening painted an historically tight labor market picture, with the vacancy yield (hires-per-job opening) hitting a record low. The March revisions also leaned tighter. The data re-emphasized that policy would need to get much tighter to do the work of actually bringing inflation down despite bubbling fears that the growth outlook was on shaky footing. The Treasury curve sold off and flattened, with 2yr yields gaining +8.5bps and the 10yr yield increasing +6.2bps, with real yields gaining +6.1bps in line with the tighter expected policy path. Two of the more germane policy path questions – how to size the September hike and what is terminal – moved tighter, in turn. The odds of a +50bp September move reached a month-high 65%, while terminal pricing moved back north of 3.1%. Presidents Bullard and Daly, typically taking opposing corners in the ideological ring, both re-emphasized the need to tighten policy expeditiously to neutral in light of runaway inflation. While policymakers debate where neutral is and what to do once there, support to get there fast is robust; it is best to heed their harmonious message the next time growth fears or falling risk assets drive policy pricing lower. Balance sheet policy will augment tightening as June marks the start of the Fed’s balance sheet normalization process, or QT. For more details on what that entails, I published a playbook on QT in conjunction with US rates and economics colleagues, found here. Steeper policy paths gripped north of the border and across the Atlantic as well. On the latter, Austrian central bank governor Holzmann said that “a 50 basis-point rise would send the necessary clear signal that the ECB is serious about fighting inflation”, leading OIS rates to price in +38bps by the July meeting. Longer-dated sovereign yields sold off in concert, with 10yr bunds (+6.4bps), OATs (+6.6bps) and BTPs (+8.5bps) hitting fresh multi-year highs. The spread of 10yr Italian yields over bunds also moved back above 200bps. The Bank of Canada hiked rates +50bps as expected, though weaved in restrictive guidance that gave the meeting a hawkish hue. Namely, the central bank warned they could be “more forceful” if needed, updating their statement to note that the economy was “clearly operating in excess demand”, which risked elevated inflation becoming yet more entrenched, as mentioned. The daily stew got a dose of anecdotal growth fears with the release of the beige book and comments from the CEO of J.P. Morgan warning that an economic “hurricane” was on the horizon. The beige book had a majority of Fed districts with contacts reporting growth or recession fears. The impact was to bring 10yr yields around 5bps below their intraday highs. Those yields are less than a basis point higher from those levels as we go to press this morning. The mixture drove equities lower on both sides of the Atlantic. The S&P 500 retreated -0.75% to start the month, with all but one sector in the red. The NASDAQ was in line, falling -0.72%, though mega cap growth FANG+ felt the impact of higher discount rates, falling -0.92%. In Europe, stocks underperformed as the continent countenances yet tighter monetary policy, with the STOXX 600 falling -1.04%. Energy was the sole gainer in the S&P, though that outperformance may be short lived as the FT reported overnight that Saudi Arabia was primed to pump more oil onto the market should Russian exports be crimped by sanctions. Brent crude futures are -1.67% lower ahead of the OPEC+ meeting today. Asian equity markets are trading lower following yesterday’s selloff. Across the region, the Hang Seng (-1.72%) is the largest underperformer after the local government decided to revive its toughest Covid-Zero measures as Covid variants flare. US stock futures are swinging between gains and losses with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.04%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.07%) virtually unchanged. Elsewhere, early morning data showed that Australia’s April trade surplus swelled to A$10.5 bn (v/s A$9.0 bn) from the A$9.7 bn. In terms of yesterday’s other data, German retail sales fell by a larger-than-expected -5.4% (vs. -0.5% expected). Otherwise, the final manufacturing PMIs for May only diverged slightly from the flash readings. The Euro Area manufacturing PMI was revised up to 54.6 (vs. flash 54.4), but the US manufacturing PMI was revised down to 57.0 (vs. flash 57.5). To the day ahead now, and data releases include the Euro Area’s PPI for April, as well as the US weekly initial jobless claims, April’s factory orders, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for May. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Villeroy and Hernandez de Cos, along with the Fed’s Mester. Tyler Durden Thu, 06/02/2022 - 08:03.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytJun 2nd, 2022

Futures Slide As Snap Forecast Steamrolls Rebound Optimism

Futures Slide As Snap Forecast Steamrolls Rebound Optimism It's not every day that a relatively small social media company (whose market cap is now less than Twitter) slashing guidance can send shockwaves across global markets and wipe out over a trillion in market cap, yet SNAP's shocking crash after it cut its own guidance released one month ago which hammered risk assets around the globe, and here we are. Add to this the delayed realization that Biden was just spouting his usual senile nonsense yesterday when he said Chinese trade tariffs would be discussed and, well, wave goodbye to the latest dead cat bounce as futures unwind much of Monday's rally. SNAP just crushed any hope of a sustained dead cat bounce — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 23, 2022 US futures declined as technology shares were set to come under pressure after Snap warned it would miss second-quarter profit and revenue forecasts amid deteriorating macroeconomic trends. Nasdaq 100 futures slid 1.5% at 7:30 a.m. ET and S&P 500 futures retreated 1.0% just as the benchmark was starting to pull back from the brink of a bear market amid fears the Federal Reserve’s tightening could hurt growth. Meanwhile in other markets, Chinese tech stocks fell by more than 4%, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index dropped 1%, led by losses in shares of utilities and retail companies. The dollar was little changed, while Treasuries advanced. Snapchat plunged more 31% in premarket trading, while Facebook Meta and other companies that rely on digital advertising also tumbled amid fears that the sudden collapse in ad spending is systemic. Technology shares have been hammered this year amid rising interest rates and soaring inflation, with the Nasdaq 100 trading near November 2020 lows and at the cheapest valuations since the early days of the pandemic. Social media stocks are on course to erase more than $100 billion in market value Tuesday after Snap’s warning: Meta Platforms (FB US) declined 6.3%, Twitter (TWTR US) -4.1%, Alphabet (GOOGL US) -3.8% and Pinterest (PINS US) -12%. “It highlights how fleeting swings in sentiment are now and also that investors are running at the first sign of trouble,” Jeffrey Haley, a senior market analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific, wrote in a note. “The market continues to turn itself inside out and back to front as it tries to decide if it has priced all of the impending rate hikes, soft landing or recession, inflation or stagflation, China, Ukraine, US summer driving season, supply chains, the list goes on.” Among other notable moves in US premarket trading, Zoom Video’s shares rallied as much as 6.3% after better-than-expected guidance. Deutsche Bank said the video-software maker’s continued post-pandemic growth in its Enterprise business is encouraging, though analysts remain cautious on the company’s comments around free cash flow. Tesla shares fell 2.6% in premarket trading on Tuesday, amid news that it may take the electric-vehicle maker at least until later this week to resume full production at its China factory. Also, Daiwa analyst Jairam Nathan lowered his price target on TSLA to $800 from $1150, the latest in a string of target cuts by Wall Street analysts. Nathan cited the lockdowns in Shanghai and supply chain concerns impacting ramp-up of Austin and Berlin plants, and lowered the EPS estimates for 2022 and 2023. Elsewhere, Frontline shares rallied 3.1% after the crude oil shipping company reported net income for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Social media and other digital advertisers fell in US premarket trading after Snap cut its forecasts. Albemarle (ALB US) shares may be in focus as analysts raise their price targets on the specialty chemicals maker amid a boost from higher lithium prices. BitNile (NILE US) swings between gains and losses in US premarket trading, after the crypto miner reported 1Q results amid a broader slump across high-growth stocks. Nautilus (NLS US) got a new Street-low price target after exercise equipment maker’s “lackluster” guidance, with the company’s shares slumping as much as 24% in US extended trading on Monday. INmune Bio (INMB US) shares dropped 23% in postmarket trading on Monday after the FDA placed the company’s investigational new drug application to start a Phase 2 trial of XPro in patients with Alzheimer’s disease on clinical hold. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF IS)  falls as much as 21% premarket after the clothing retailer reported an unexpected loss for its first quarter Equities have been volatile as investors assess the outlook for monetary policy, inflation and the impact of China’s strict Covid policies on the global economy. Minutes on Wednesday of the most recent Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting will give markets insight into the US central bank’s tightening path. “With the era of cheap money hurtling to an end the focus will be on a speech from Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve later, with investors keen to glean any new titbit of information about just how far and fast the US central bank will go in raising rates and offloading its mass bond holdings,” Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, wrote in a note. In Europe, the Stoxx 50 slumped 1.4%. FTSE 100 outperformed, dropping 0.6%, while CAC 40 lags. Utilities, retailers and consumer products are the worst performing sectors. Utilities were the biggest decliners in Europe, as Drax Group Plc, Centrica Plc and SSE Plc all sank on Tuesday following a report about UK plans for a possible windfall tax. Air France-KLM fell after plans to sell about 2.26 billion euros ($2.4 billion) of new shares to shore up its balance sheet. Oil and gas stocks underperformed the European equity benchmark in morning trading as crude declines amid investors’ concerns about Chinese demand, while mining shares also fall alongside metal prices.  Here are some of the biggest European movers: Big Yellow shares gain as much as 4% after what Citi described as a “strong set” of results, supported by structural tailwinds. SSP rises as much as 13% after the U.K. catering and concession-services company reported 1H results that Citi says were above expectations. Adevinta climbs as much as 7.8% after reporting 1Q results that were broadly as expected, with revenue slightly below expectations and Ebitda ahead, according to Citi. Frontline gains as much as 6.4% in Oslo after the crude oil shipping company reported 1Q net income that beat the average analyst estimate. Moonpig gains as much as 8.2%, extending a rise of 11% on Monday when the company announced the acquisition of Smartbox Group UK U.K. utility firms sink after the Financial Times reported that Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak has ordered officials to prepare plans for a possible windfall tax on power generators as well as oil and gas firms. SSE declines as much as 11%, Drax Group -19% and Centrica -12% European technology and advertising stocks slump with Nasdaq futures after Snap cut its revenue and profit forecasts below the low end of its previous guidance. Just Eat falls as much as 4.8%, Deliveroo -4.9%, Delivery Hero -4.4%, STMicro -3%, Infineon -2.8%, AMS -3% Prosus drops as much as 6.7% in Amsterdam and Naspers declines as much as 6.1% in Johannesburg as Barclays cuts ratings on both stocks after downgrading Tencent in the prior session. The latest flash PMI data showed that Europe’s two largest economies kept growing in May as they benefited from a sustained rebound in services that offset fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the pound fell after a report showed the UK economy faces an increasing risk of falling into a recession as firms and households buckle under the fastest inflation rate in four decades. At the same time, the euro climbed above $1.07 for the first time in four weeks as ECB President Christine Lagarde said the currency bloc has reached a “turning point” in monetary policy and rejected the idea that the region is heading for a recession, but said the ECB won’t be rushed into withdrawing monetary stimulus. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dipped as traders remained cautious on global growth concerns while assessing the impact of China’s fresh fiscal stimulus.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.2%, with tech names the biggest drags. Lower revenue and profit forecasts from Snap Inc. weighed on the broader sector. Chinese stocks led declines in the region as the government’s new support package including more than 140 billion yuan ($21 billion) in additional tax relief failed to impress investors. Covid-19 lockdowns remain a key overhang, while market participants are looking to major China tech earnings this week, including Alibaba and Baidu, for direction. Hong Kong equities also dropped after the city’s outgoing leader said border controls will remain in place for now.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index tumbles as much as 4.2% in afternoon trading on Tuesday, on track for a second day of declines.  “Markets have caught a glimpse of the impact of regulatory risks and Covid-19 lockdowns from Tencent’s recent lackluster earnings,” and a potential mirroring of the weakness by big tech earnings ahead “may be driving some caution,” Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte., wrote in a note Japanese equities dropped as investors mulled China’s new stimulus measures and amid growing concerns over global economic health.  The Topix Index fell 0.9% to close at 1,878.26 on Tuesday, while the Nikkei declined 0.9% to 26,748.14. Recruit Holdings Co. contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, as the staffing-services firm tumbled 6.6%. Among the 2,171 shares in the index, 1,846 fell, 249 rose and 76 were unchanged. “The markets will continue to be in an unstable situation for a while as the US is still in the process of raising its interest rates and we are entering a phase where the effects of interest rate tightening on the economy will start to be felt in the real economy,” said Hiroshi Matsumoto, senior client portfolio manager at Pictet Asset Management. Indian stocks also declined, dragged by a selloff in information technology firms, as investors remained cautious over global economic growth.  The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.4% to 54,052.61 in Mumbai while the NSE Nifty 50 Index eased 0.6%. The gauges have now dropped for four of five sessions and eased 5.3% and 5.7% this month, respectively. All but two of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined on Tuesday, led by information technology stocks. Foreign funds have been net sellers of Indian stocks since end of September and have taken out $21.3 billion this year through May 20. The benchmark Sensex is now 12.5% off its peak in Oct. Corporate earnings for the March quarter have been mixed as 26 out of 41 Nifty companies have reported profit above or in line with consensus expectations. “There is a lot of skepticism among investors over interest rate hikes in the near term and its impact on growth going ahead,” according to Kotak Securities analyst Shrikant Chouhan. In FX, the dollar dipped while the euro jumped to a one-month high versus the US dollar after the European Central Bank reiterated its plans to end negative rates quickly, bolstering market expectations that rates will rise as early as July. It pared some gains after ECB Governing Council’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau argued against a 50 bps increase. “The single currency is dancing to the tune of ECB policymakers this week as the Governing Council attempts to talk up the euro to insure against imported inflation,” said Simon Harvey, forex analyst at Monex Europe. “The euro’s rally highlights how dip buyers are happy to buy into the ECB’s messaging in the near-term.” Elsewhere, the pound slid and gilts rallied after a weak UK PMI reading ramped up speculation that the country is heading toward recession. The Australian and New Zealand dollars led declines among commodity currencies after Snapchat owner Snap Inc. slashed its revenue forecast, spurring doubts about the strength of the US economy. Japan’s yen snapped a two-day drop as Treasury yields resumed their decline. Japanese government bond yields eased across maturities, following their US peers. In rates, Treasuries were richer by up to 4bp across belly of the curve as S&P futures gapped lower from the reopen and extended losses over Asia, early European session. Treasury 10-year yields around 2.815%, richer by 3.5bp vs. Monday close US session focus to include Fed Chair Powell remarks and 2-year note auction. Gilts outperformed following soft UK data. Gilts outperform by additional 1.5bp in the sector after May’s preliminary PMI prints missed expectations. Belly-led gains steepened the US 5s30s by 1.8bp on the day while wider bull steepening move in gilts steepens UK 5s30s by 5bp on the day.  The US auction cycle begins at 1pm ET with $47b 2- year note sale, followed by $48b 5- and $42b 7-year notes Wednesday and Thursday. In commodities, oil and gas stocks underperformed as crude declined amid concerns about Chinese demand, while mining shares also fall alongside metal prices. WTI is in the red but recovers off worst levels to trade back on a $109-handle. Most base metals trade poorly; LME nickel falls 4.5%, underperforming peers. Spot gold rises roughly $5 to trade above $1,858/oz. Looking at the day ahead, we’ll get the rest of the May flash PMIs from Europe and the US, along with US new home sales for April and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for May. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the ECB’s Villeroy and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 1.3% to 3,920.75 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 432.44 MXAP down 1.1% to 163.24 MXAPJ down 1.3% to 531.58 Nikkei down 0.9% to 26,748.14 Topix down 0.9% to 1,878.26 Hang Seng Index down 1.7% to 20,112.10 Shanghai Composite down 2.4% to 3,070.93 Sensex down 0.3% to 54,148.93 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,128.83 Kospi down 1.6% to 2,605.87 Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,859.38 US Dollar Index down 0.11% to 101.96 Brent Futures down 0.2% to $113.15/bbl German 10Y yield little changed at 0.99% Euro up 0.2% to $1.0713 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Social media stocks are on course to shed more than $100 billion in market value after Snap Inc.’s profit warning, adding to woes for the sector which is already reeling amid stalling user growth and rate-hike fears. The US must be “strategic” when it comes to a decision on whether to remove China tariffs, Trade Representative Katherine Tai said a day after President Joe Biden mentioned he would review Trump-era levies as consumer prices surge. China rolled out a broad package of measures to support businesses and stimulate demand as it seeks to offset the damage from Covid lockdowns on the world’s second-largest economy. China’s central bank and banking regulator urged lenders to boost loans as the economy is battered by Covid outbreaks that have threatened growth this year. President Joe Biden is seeking to show US resolve against China, yet an ill-timed gaffe on Taiwan risks undermining his bid to curb Beijing’s growing influence over the region. Europe’s two largest economies kept growing in May as they benefited from a sustained rebound in services that offset fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s currency extended a rally that’s taken it to the strongest level versus the dollar in four years, prompting a warning from one of President Vladimir Putin’s staunchest allies that the gains may be overdone. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk Asia-Pac stocks mostly declined after Snap's profit warning soured risk sentiment and weighed on US tech names. ASX 200 was rangebound but kept afloat for most of the session by resilience in tech and mining stocks, while PMIs remained in expansion territory. Nikkei 225 fell below 27,000 although losses are stemmed by anticipation of incoming relief with Finance Minister Suzuki set to present an additional budget to parliament tomorrow. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured after further bank downgrades to Chinese economic growth forecasts, while the recent announcement of targeted support measures by China and reports of the US mulling reducing China tariffs, did little to spur risk appetite. Top Asian News Shanghai will allow supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores to resume operations with a maximum occupancy of 50% before May 31st and 75% after June 1st, according to Global Times. Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam said they are unlikely to lift the quarantine in her term, according to Bloomberg. US President Biden said there is no change to the policy of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan, while Defense Secretary Austin earlier commented that he thinks US President Biden was clear that US policy has not changed on Taiwan, according to Reuters. USTR Tai said the US is engaging with China on Phase 1 commitments of trade, while she added they must be strategic on tariffs and that President Biden's team believes trade needs new ideas, according to Reuters. China's push to loosen USD dominance is said to take on new urgency amid Western sanctions on Russia and some Chinese advisers are urging the government to overhaul the exchange rate regime to turn the Yuan into an anchor currency, according to SCMP. European bourses are subdued following the Snap-headwind, further hawkish ECB rhetoric and disappointing Flash PMIs; particularly for the UK, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%. US futures are similarly subdued and the Nasdaq, -1.7%, is taking the brunt of the pressure as tech names are hit across the board, ES -1.1%. Snap (SNAP) said the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated since its last guidance issuance and it now believes it will report revenue and adjusted EBITDA below the low end of its Q2 guidance range, according to the filing cited by Reuters. Samsung (005935 KS) is to reportedly invest USD 360bln on chips and biotech over a period of five years, according to Bloomberg. Tesla (TSLA) could take until later this week to restore full production in China after quarantining thousands of workers. Uber (UBER) has initiated a broad hiring freeze across the Co. as it faces increased pressure to become profitable, according to Business Insider sources Top European News UK Chancellor Sunak ordered officials to draw up a plan for a windfall tax on electricity generators' profits, according to FT. ECB's Nagel said it seems clear that the wage moderation seen for 10 years in Germany is over and they think they will see high numbers from German wage negotiations. Germany's Chambers of Commerce DIHK cuts 2022 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% (vs prev. view of 3% made in Feb). FX Yen outperforms on risk off and softer yield dynamics, USD/JPY at low end of wide range stretching from just above 128.00 to just over 127.00 and multiple chart supports under the latter. Franc and Euro underpinned as SNB and ECB pivot towards removal of rate accommodation, USD/CHF sub-0.9650, EUR/USD 1.0700-plus. Dollar suffers as a result of the above, but DXY contains losses under 102.000 as Pound plunges following disappointing UK preliminary PMIs; Cable recoils from the cusp of 1.2600 to touch 1.2475. Aussie, Loonie and Kiwi all suffer from aversion and latter also cautious ahead of RBNZ on Wednesday; AUD/USD loses grip of 0.7100 handle, NZD/USD under 0.6450 having got close to 0.6500 yesterday and USD/CAD probing 1.2800 vs virtual double bottom around 1.2765. Lira loses flight to stay above 16.0000 vs Buck as Turkish President Erdogan refuses to acknowledge Greek leader and sets out plans to strengthen nation’s southern border defences. Fixed Income Gilts fly after UK PMIs miss consensus and only trim some gains in response to much better than expected CBI distributive trades 10 year bond holds near the top of a 118.86-117.92 range Bunds bounce from sub-153.00 lows after more hawkish guidance from ECB President Lagarde, but Italian BTPs lag under 128.00 as books build for 15 year issuance US Treasuries bull-flatten ahead of 2 year note supply and Fed's Powell, T-note just shy of 120-00 within 120-02+/119-18 band Italy has commenced marketing a new syndicated 15yr BTP, guidance +11bp vs outstanding March 2037 bond, according to the lead manager via Reuters; subsequently, set at +8bp. Commodities WTI and Brent are subdued amid the broader risk environment with familiar factors still in play; however, the benchmarks are off lows amid USD downside. Meandering around USD 110/bbl (vs low 108.61/bbl) and USD 113/bbl (vs low USD 111.70/bbl) respectively. White House is considering environmental waivers for all blends of US gasoline to lower pump prices, according to Reuters sources. Spot gold is modestly firmer though it has failed to extend after briefly surpassing the 21-DMA at USD 1856/oz. Central Banks ECB's Lagarde believes the blog post on Monday was at a good time, adding we are clearly at a turning point, via Bloomberg TV; adds, we are not in a panic mode. Rates are likely to be positive at end-Q3; when out of negative rates, you can be at or slightly above zero. Does not comment on FX levels, when questioned about EUR/USD parity. Click here for more detail, analysis & reaction. ECB's Villeroy says he believes the ECB will be at a neutral rate at some point next year, via Bloomberg TV; 50bps hike does not belong to the Governing Council's consensus, does not yet know the terminal rate. NBH Virag says continuing to increase rates in 50bp increments is an options, increasing into double-digits is not justified. US Event Calendar 09:45: May S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 57.6, prior 59.2 May S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 55.2, prior 55.6 May S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 55.6, prior 56.0 10:00: May Richmond Fed Index, est. 10, prior 14 10:00: April New Home Sales MoM, est. -1.7%, prior -8.6%; New Home Sales, est. 750,000, prior 763,000 Central Banks 12:20pm: Powell Makes Welcoming Remarks at an Economic Summit DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap These are pretty binary markets at the moment. If the US doesn’t fall into recession over the next 3-6 months then it’s easy to see markets rallying over this period. However if it does, the correction will likely have further to run and go beyond the average recession sell-off (that we were close to at the lows last week) given the rich starting valuations. For choice I don’t think the US will go into recession over this period but as you know I do think it will next year. As such a rally should be followed by bigger falls next year. Two problems with this view. Timing the recession call and timing the market’s second guessing of it. Apart from that it's all very easy!! This week started on a completely different basis to most over the past few months. So much so that there's hope that the successive weekly losing S&P streak of seven might be ended. 4 days to go is a long time in these markets but after day one we're at +1.86% and the strongest start to a week since January. And that comes on top of its intraday recovery of more than +2% late on Friday’s session, after the index had briefly entered bear market territory, which brings the index’s gains to more than 4% since its Friday lows at around the European close. However just when you thought it was safe to emerge from behind the sofa, S&P 500 futures are -0.84% this morning with Nasdaq futures -1.42% due to Snapchat slashing profit and revenue forecasts overnight. Their shares were as much as -31% lower in after hours, taking other social media stocks with it. Asia is also weaker this morning as we'll see below. Before we get there, yesterday's rally was built on a few bits of positive news that are worth highlighting. Investors were buoyed from the get-go by remarks from President Biden that he’d be considering whether to review Trump-era tariffs on China. It had been reported previously that such a move was under consideration, but there are also geopolitical as well as economic factors to contend with, and a Reuters report last week cited sources who said that US Trade Representative Katherine Tai favoured keeping the tariffs in place. Biden said that he’d be discussing the issue with Treasury Secretary Yellen following his return to the United States, so one to watch in the coming days with the administration under pressure to deal with inflation. This comes as the Biden administration unveiled the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework yesterday, which covers 13 countries and approximately 40% of the world’s GDP. Conspicuously, China was not one of the included parties, but US officials said there was a path for them to join. The framework reportedly does not contain any new tariff reductions, but instead seems focused on new labour, environmental, and anti-money laundering standards while seeking to build resilience. The 13 involved countries said in a joint statement, “This framework is intended to advance resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness, and competitiveness for our economies.” It is not clear what is binding, or what Congress will think about the framework, but regardless, this is battle to halt or slow the anti-globalisation sentiment so prominent in recent years. It was not just Biden who helped encourage the rally. We then had a further dose of optimism in the European morning after the Ifo Institute’s indicators from Germany surprised on the upside. Their business climate indicator unexpectedly rose to 93.0 in May (vs. 91.4 expected), thus marking a second successive increase from the March low after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This morning we’ll get the May flash PMIs for Germany and elsewhere in Europe, so let’s see if they paint a similar picture. Ahead of that, equity indices moved higher across the world, with the S&P 500 up +1.86% as mentioned, joining other indices higher including the NASDAQ (+1.59%), the Dow Jones (+1.98%), and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.10%). It was a very broad-based advance, with every big sector group moving higher on the day, and banks (+5.12%) saw the largest advance in the S&P 500. Meanwhile, consumer discretionary (+0.64%) continues to lag the broader index. Over in Europe there were also some major advances, with the STOXX 600 (+1.26%), the DAX (+1.38%) and the CAC 40 (+1.17%) all rising. They have lagged the US move since Friday's Euro close mostly because they have out-performed on the downside. Staying on Europe, we had some significant developments on the policy outlook as ECB President Lagarde published a blog post that basically endorsed near-term market pricing for future hikes. In turn, that helped the euro to strengthen against other major currencies and led to a rise in sovereign bond yields. In the post, Lagarde said that she expected net purchases under the APP “to end very early in the third quarter”, which would enable rates to begin liftoff at the July meeting in just over 8 weeks from now. Furthermore, the post said that “on the current outlook, we are likely to be in a position to exit negative interest rates by the end of the third quarter”, so implying that we’ll see more than one hike in Q3, assuming they move by 25bp increments. Interestingly, Bloomberg subsequently reported that others at the ECB wanted to keep open the possibility of moving even faster. Indeed, it said that Lagarde’s plan had “irked colleagues” seeking to keep that option open, and was “a position that leaves some more hawkish officials uncomfortable.” So according to this, some officials want to keep the option of moving in 50bp increments like the Fed did earlier this month, although so far only Dutch central bank Governor Knot has openly referred to this as a possibility. That move from Lagarde to endorse an exit from negative rates in Q3 sent sovereign bonds noticeably higher after the blog post was released, with 10yr bund yields giving up their initial decline to rise +7.5bps by the close, aided by the broader risk-on move. Those on 10yr OATs (+7.1bps) and BTPs (+3.3bps) also moved higher, with a rise in real yields driving the moves in all cases. Nevertheless, when it came to what the market was pricing for future rate hikes, Lagarde’s comments seemed to just solidify where they’d already reached, with the amount priced in for the ECB by year-end rising just +5.5bps to remain above 100bps. Given the ECB’s more hawkish rhetoric of late as well as the upside Ifo reading, the Euro gained further ground against the US dollar over the last 24 hours, strengthening by +1.20% in yesterday’s session. In fact, the dollar was the second-worst performer amongst all the G10 currencies yesterday, narrowly edging out the yen, and the dollar index has now shed -2.64% since its peak less than two weeks ago. That’s in line with what our FX colleagues argued in their Blueprint at the end of last week (link here), where they see the reversal of the dollar risk premium alongside ECB tightening sending EURUSD back above 1.10 over the summer. But even though the dollar was losing ground, US Treasury yields still moved higher alongside their European counterparts, with 10yr yields up +7.0bps to 2.85%. They given back around a basis point this morning. Over to Asia and as discussed earlier markets are weaker. The Hang Seng (-1.50%) is extending its previous session losses with stocks in mainland China also lagging. The Shanghai Composite (-1.09%) and CSI (-0.80%) are both trading lower even as the government is offering more than 140 billion yuan ($21 billion) in extra tax relief to companies and consumers as it seeks to offset the impact of Covid-induced lockdowns on the world’s second biggest economy. Among the agreed new steps, China will also reduce some passenger car purchase taxes by 60 billion yuan. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.51%) and Kospi (-0.90%) are also trading in the red. Early morning data showed that Japan’s manufacturing activity expanded at the slowest pace in three months in May after the au Jibun Bank flash manufacturing PMI slipped to +53.2 from a final reading of +53.5 in April amid supply bottlenecks with new orders growth slowing. Meanwhile, the nation’s services PMI improved to +51.7 in May from +50.7. Elsewhere, manufacturing sector activity in Australia expanded at the slowest pace in four months as the S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI fell to +55.3 in May from April’s +58.8 level while the services PMI dropped to +53.0 in May. While markets try to judge whether or not a near-term recession is imminent and how severe it may be, another external shock to contend with is the growing Covid case count in mainland China and how stiff the lockdown measures authorities will impose to contain outbreaks. As we reported yesterday, Beijing registered record case growth over the weekend. The Chinese mainland on Monday reported 141 locally-transmitted confirmed COVID-19 cases, of which 58 were in Shanghai and 41 in Beijing. So these numbers will be closely watched over the next few days. To the day ahead now, and we’ll get the rest of the May flash PMIs from Europe and the US, along with US new home sales for April and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for May. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, the ECB’s Villeroy and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Tyler Durden Tue, 05/24/2022 - 08:08.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeMay 24th, 2022

Futures Jump After China Cuts Main Lending Rate By Most On Record But $1.9 Trillion Op-Ex Looms...

Futures Jump After China Cuts Main Lending Rate By Most On Record But $1.9 Trillion Op-Ex Looms... After months of endless jawboning and almost no action, overnight China finally cut its main mortgage interest rate by the most on record since the rate was introduced in 2019, as it tries to reduce the economic impact of Covid lockdowns and a property sector slowdown. The five-year loan prime rate was lowered from 4.6% to 4.45% on Friday (even as the 1 Year LPR was unchanged at 3.70%) . The reduction in the rate, which is set by a committee of banks and published by the People’s Bank of China, will directly reduce the borrowing costs on outstanding mortgages across the country (the move wasn’t much of a shock as the central bank had kept the 1-Year MLF Rate unchanged earlier in the week and effectively cut interest rates for first-time homebuyers by 20bps on Sunday). The rate cut was long overdue for China's property market which has experienced 8 straight months of home-price reductions with developers under extreme pressure. There was more bad news for China's embattled tech sector as Canada banned Huawei Technologies and ZTE equipment from use in its 5G network. The good news is that China's easing helped push Asian stocks higher, while European markets and US stock index futures also rose on Friday as buyers returned after a selloff fueled by recession fears saw the underlying S&P 500 lose more than $1 trillion in market value this week. Contracts on the S&P 500 advanced 1.1% as of 7:15a.m. in New York suggesting the index may be able to avoid entering a bear market (which would be triggered by spoos sliding below 3,855) at least for now, although today's $1.9 trillion Option Expiration will likely lead to substantial volatility, potentially to the downside.  Even with a solid jump today, should it not reverse as most ramps in recent days, the index - which is down almost 19% from its January record - is on track for a seventh week of losses, the longest such streak since March 2001. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones indexes also gained. 10Y TSY yields rebounded from yesterday's tumble while the dollar was modestly lower. Gold and bitcoin were flat. In premarket trading, shares of gigacap tech giants rose, poised to recover some of the losses they incurred this week. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 1.7%. The tech heavy benchmark has wiped out about $1.3 trillion in market value this month. Apple (AAPL US) is up 1.3% in premarket trading on Friday, Tesla (TSLA US) +2.6%.Palo Alto Networks jumped after topping estimates. Continuing the retail rout, Ross Stores cratered after the discount retailer cut its full-year outlook and first quarter results fell short of expectations. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Chinese stocks in US look set to extend this week’s gains on Friday after Chinese banks cut the five-year loan prime rate by a record amount, an effort to boost mortgage and loan demand in an economy hampered by Covid lockdowns. Alibaba (BABA US) +2.6%, Baidu (BIDU US) +1.1%, JD.com (JD US) +2.6%. Palo Alto Networks (PANW US) rises 11% in premarket trading on Friday after forecasting adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that exceeded the average of analysts’ estimates. Applied Materials (AMAT US) falls 2.1% in premarket trading after its second-quarter results missed expectations as persistent chip shortages weighed on the outlook. However, Cowen analyst Krish Sankar notes that “while the macro/consumer data points have weakened, semicap demand is still healthy.” Ross Stores Inc. (ROST US) shares sank 28% in US premarket trade on Friday after the discount retailer cut its full-year outlook and 1Q results fell short of expectations, prompting analysts to slash their price targets. Foghorn Therapeutics (FHTX US) shares plunged 26% in postmarket trading after the company said the FDA has placed the phase 1 dose escalation study of FHD-286 in relapsed and/or refractory acute myelogenous leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome on a partial clinical hold. Wix.com (WIX US) cut to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley as investors are unlikely to “give credit to a show-me story” in the current context which limits upside catalysts in the near term, according to note. Deckers Outdoor (DECK US) jumped 13% in US postmarket trading on Thursday after providing a year sales outlook range with a midpoint that beat the average consensus estimate. VF Corp’s (VFC US) reported mixed results, with analysts noting the positive performance of the company’s North Face brand, though revenues did miss estimates amid a tricky macro backdrop. The outdoor retailer’s shares rose 2.2% in US postmarket trading on Thursday. “The ‘risk-on’ trading mood has registered a solid rebound during the last couple of hours as traders cheered the significantly dovish monetary decision from China after the PBoC cut one of the key interest rates by a record amount,” said Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades. “This will provide a fresh boost to the economy, helping small businesses and mitigate the negative impacts of lockdowns in the world’s second-largest economy.” Still, the broader market will have to fend off potential risks from options expiration, which is notorious for stirring up volatility. Traders will close old positions for an estimated $1.9 trillion of derivatives while rolling out new exposures on Friday. This time round, $460 billion of derivatives across single stocks is scheduled to expire, and $855 billion of S&P 500-linked contracts will expire according to Goldman. Rebounds in risk sentiment have tended to fizzle this year. Investors continue to grapple with concerns about an economic downturn, in part as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates to quell price pressures. Global shares are on course for an historic seventh week of declines. “The risk-on trading mood has registered a solid rebound during the last couple of hours as traders cheered the significantly dovish monetary decision from China,” said Pierre Veyret, an analyst at ActivTrades. “This move significantly contrasts with the lingering inflation and recession risks in Western economies, where an increasing number of market operators and analysts are questioning the policies of central banks.” In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index added 1.5%, erasing the week’s losses. The French CAC 40 lags, rising 0.9%. Autos, travel and miners are the strongest-performing sectors, rebounding after two days of declines. Basic resources outperformed as industrial metals rallied. Consumer products was the only sector in the red as Richemont slumped after the Swiss watch and jewelry maker reported operating profit for the full year that missed the average analyst estimate and its Chairman Johann Rupert said China is going to take an economic blow and warned the Chinese economy will suffer for longer than people think. The miss sent luxury stocks plunging: Richemont -11%, Swatch -3.8%, Hermes -3.2%, LVMH -1.9%, Kering -1.7%, Hugo Boss -1.7%, etc. These are the biggest European movers: Rockwool rises as much as 10% as the market continued to digest the company’s latest earnings report, which triggered a surge in the shares, with SocGen and BNP Paribas upgrading the stock. Valeo and other European auto stocks outperformed, rebounding after two days of losses. Citi says Valeo management confirmed that auto production troughed in April and activity is improving. Sinch gained as much as 5.4% after Berenberg said peer’s quarterly results confirmed the cloud communications company’s strong positioning in a fast-growing market. Lonza shares gain as much as 4.1% after the pharmaceutical ingredients maker was raised to outperform at RBC, with the broker bullish on the long-term demand dynamics for the firm. THG shares surge as much as 32% as British entrepreneur Nick Candy considers an offer to acquire the UK online retailer, while the company separately announced it rejected a rival bid. Maersk shares rise as much as 4.6%, snapping two days of declines, as global container rates advance according to Fearnley Securities which says 2H “looks increasingly promising.” PostNL shares jump as much as 8.2% after the announcement that Vesa will acquire sole control of the Dutch postal operator. Analysts say reaction in the shares is overdone. Dermapharm shares gain as much as 6.1%, the most since March 22, with Stifel saying the pharmaceuticals maker is “significantly undervalued” and have solid growth drivers. Richemont shares tumble as much as 14%, the most in more than two years, after the luxury retailer’s FY Ebit was a “clear miss,” with cost increases in operating expenses. Luxury peers were pulled lower alongside Richemont after the company’s disappointing earnings report, in which its CEO also flagged the Chinese market will lag for longer than people assume. Instone Real Estate shares drop as much as 12% as the stock is downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank, with the broker cutting its earnings estimates for the property developer Earlier in the session, Asia-Pac stocks picked themselves up from recent losses as risk sentiment improved from the choppy US mood. ASX 200 gained with outperformance in tech and mining stocks leading the broad gains across industries. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp strengthened with a rebound in tech setting the pace in Hong Kong and with the mainland also lifted following the PBoC’s Loan Prime Rate announcement in which it defied the consensus by maintaining the 1-Year LPR at 3.70% but cut the 5-Year LPR by 15bps to 4.45%, which is the reference for mortgages. Nonetheless, this wasn’t much of a shock as the central bank had kept the 1-Year MLF Rate unchanged earlier in the week and effectively cut interest rates for first-time homebuyers by 20bps on Sunday. Japanese stocks regain footing in the wake of Thursday’s selloff, after Chinese banks cut a key interest rate for long-term loans by a record amount. The Topix rose 0.9% to 1,877.37 at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 1.3% to 26,739.03. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.1%. Out of 2,171 shares in the index, 1,511 rose and 567 fell, while 93 were unchanged. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.2% to close at 7,145.60 on the eve of Australia’s national election. Technology shares and miners led sector gains. Chalice Mining climbed after getting approvals for further exploration drilling at the Hartog-Dampier targets within its Julimar project. Novonix advanced with other lithium-related shares after IGO announced its first and consistent production of battery grade lithium hydroxide from Kwinana. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.5% to 11,267.39 India’s benchmark stocks index rebounded from a 10-month low and completed its first weekly gain in six, boosted by an advance in Reliance Industries.  The S&P BSE Sensex jumped 2.9% to 54,326.39 in Mumbai. The NSE Nifty 50 Index also rose by a similar magnitude on Friday. Stocks across Asia advanced after Chinese banks lowered a key interest rates for long-term loans.   Reliance Industries climbed 5.8%, the largest advance since Nov. 25, and gave the biggest boost to the Sensex, which had all 30 member stocks trading higher. All 19 sector indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. advanced, led by a gauge of realty stocks.  “Stocks in Asia and US futures pushed higher today amid a bout of relative calm in markets, though worries about a darkening economic outlook and China’s Covid struggles could yet stoke more volatility,” according to a note from SMC Global Securities Ltd.  In earnings, of the 36 Nifty 50 firms that have announced results so far, 21 have either met or exceeded analyst estimates, while 15 have missed forecasts. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inched higher as the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers. Treasuries fell modestly, with yields rising 1-2bps. The euro weakened after failing to hold on to yesterday’s gains that pushed it above $1.06 for the first time in more than two weeks. Inversion returns for the term structures in the yen and the pound, yet for the euro it’s all about the next meetings by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. The pound rose to a session high at the London open, coinciding with data showing UK retail sales rose more than forecast in April. Retail sales was up 1.4% m/m in April, vs est. -0.3%. Other showed a plunge in consumer confidence to the lowest in at least 48 years. The Swiss franc halted a three-day advance that had taken it to the strongest level against the greenback this month. Australia’s sovereign bonds held opening gains before a federal election Saturday amid fears of a hung parliament, which could stifle infrastructure spending. The Australian and New Zealand dollar reversed earlier losses. The offshore yuan and South Korean won paced gains in emerging Asian currencies as a rally in regional equities bolstered risk appetite. In rates, Treasuries were slightly cheaper as S&P 500 futures advanced. Yields were higher by 2bp-3bp across the Treasuries curve with 10- year around 2.865%, outperforming bunds and gilts by 1.7bp and 3.5bp on the day; curves spreads remain within 1bp of Thursday’s closing levels. Bunds and Italian bonds fell, underperforming Treasuries, as haven trades were unwound. US session has no Fed speakers or economic data slated. UK gilts 2s10s resume bear-flattening, underperforming Treasuries, after BOE’s Pill said tightening has more to run. Gilts 10y yields regain 1.90%. Bund yield curve-bear steepens. long end trades heavy with 30y yield ~6bps cheaper. Peripheral spreads widen to core with 5y Italy underperforming. Semi-core spreads tighten a touch. In commodities, WTI trades within Thursday’s range, falling 0.5% to around $111. Most base metals trade in the green; LME lead rises 2.6%, outperforming peers. LME nickel lags, dropping 1.5%. Spot gold is little changed at $1,844/oz. KEY HEADLINES: Looking at the day ahead, there is no macro news in the US. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Müller, Kazāks, Šimkus, Centeno and De Cos, along with the BoE’s Pill. Finally, earnings releases include Deere & Company. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.1% to 3,940.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 433.00 MXAP up 1.6% to 164.68 MXAPJ up 2.1% to 539.85 Nikkei up 1.3% to 26,739.03 Topix up 0.9% to 1,877.37 Hang Seng Index up 3.0% to 20,717.24 Shanghai Composite up 1.6% to 3,146.57 Sensex up 2.5% to 54,115.12 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.1% to 7,145.64 Kospi up 1.8% to 2,639.29 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.97% Euro down 0.2% to $1.0567 Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,845.64 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.25% to 102.98 Brent Futures down 0.4% to $111.55/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill said monetary tightening has further to run in the UK because the balance of risks is tilted toward inflation surprising on the upside ECB Governing Council Member Visco says a June hike is ‘certainly’ out of the question while July is ‘perhaps’ the time to start rate hikes China’s plans to bolster growth as Covid outbreaks and lockdowns crush activity will see a whopping $5.3 trillion pumped into its economy this year Chinese banks cut a key interest rate for long- term loans by a record amount, a move that would reduce mortgage costs and may help counter weak loan demand caused by a property slump and Covid lockdowns China’s almost-trillion dollar hedge fund industry risks worsening the turmoil in its stock market as deepening portfolio losses trigger forced selling by some managers. About 2,350 stock-related hedge funds last month dropped below a threshold that typically activates clauses requiring them to slash exposures, with many headed toward a level that mandates liquidation Investors fled every major asset class in the past week, with US equities and Treasuries a rare exception to massive redemptions Ukraine’s central bank is considering a return to regular monetary policy decisions as soon as next month in a sign the country is getting its financial system back on its feet after a shock from Russia’s invasion The Group of Seven industrialized nations will agree on more than 18 billion euros ($19 billion) in aid for Ukraine to guarantee the short-term finances of the government in Kyiv, according to German Finance Minister Christian Lindner The best may already be over for the almighty dollar as growing fears of a US recession bring down Treasury yields A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquqawk Asia-Pac stocks picked themselves up from recent losses as risk sentiment improved from the choppy US mood.  ASX 200 gained with outperformance in tech and mining stocks leading the broad gains across industries. Nikkei 225 was underpinned following the BoJ’s ETF purchases yesterday and despite multi-year high inflation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp strengthened with a rebound in tech setting the pace in Hong Kong and with the mainland also lifted following the PBoC’s Loan Prime Rate announcement in which it defied the consensus by maintaining the 1-Year LPR at 3.70% but cut the 5-Year LPR by 15bps to 4.45%, which is the reference for mortgages. Nonetheless, this wasn’t much of a shock as the central bank had kept the 1-Year MLF Rate unchanged earlier in the week and effectively cut interest rates for first-time homebuyers by 20bps on Sunday. Top Asian News Chinese Premier Li vows efforts to aid the resumption of production, via Xinhua; will continue to build itself into a large global market and a hot spot for foreign investment, via Reuters. US and Japanese leaders are to urge China to reduce its nuclear arsenal, according to Yomiuri. It was also reported that Japanese PM Kishida is expected to announce a defence budget increase during the summit with US President Biden, according to TV Asahi. Offshore Yuan Halts Selloff With Biggest Weekly Gain Since 2017 Hong Kong Dollar Traders Brace for Rate Spike Amid Intervention Shanghai Factory Output Fell 20 Times Faster Than Rest of China Japan’s Inflation Tops 2%, Complicating BOJ Stimulus Message European indices have started the week's last trading day positively and have extended on gains in early trade. Swiss SMI (+0.5%) sees its upside capped by losses in Richemont which provided a downbeat China outlook. European sectors are almost wholly in the green with a clear pro-cyclical bias/anti-defensive bias - Healthcare, Personal & Consumer Goods, Telecoms, Food & Beverages all reside at the bottom of the chart, whilst Autos & Parts, Travel & Leisure and Retail lead the charge on the upside. US equity futures have also been trending higher since the reopening of futures trading overnight Top European News Holcim, HeidelbergCement Said to Compete for Sika US Unit Prosus Looking to Sell $6 Billion Russian Ads Business Avito European Autos Outperform in Rebound, Driven by Valeo, Faurecia Volkswagen Pitted Against Organic Farmer in Climate Court Clash FX DXY bound tightly to 103.000, but only really firm relative to Yen on renewed risk appetite. Yuan back to early May peaks after PBoC easing of 5 year LPR boosts risk sentiment - Usd/Cny and Usd/Cnh both sub-6.7000. Kiwi outperforms ahead of anticipated 50 bp RBNZ hike next week and with tailwind from Aussie cross pre-close call election result. Euro and Pound capped by resistance at round number levels irrespective of hawkish ECB commentary and surprisingly strong UK consumption data. Lira lurching after Turkish President Erdogan rejection of Swedish and Finnish NATO entry bids. Japanese PM Kishida says rapid FX moves are undesirable, via Nikkei interview; keeping close ties with overseas currency authorities, via Nikkei. Fixed Income Debt futures reverse course amidst pre-weekend risk revival, partly prompted by PBoC LPR cut. Bunds hovering above 153.00, Gilts sub-119.50 and T-note just over 119-16. UK debt also taking on board surprisingly strong retail sales metrics and EZ bonds acknowledging more hawkish ECB rhetoric. Commodities WTI and Brent July futures consolidate in early European trade in what has been another volatile week for the crude complex. Spot gold has been moving in tandem with the Buck and rose back above its 200 DMA Base metals are mostly firmer, with LME copper re-eyeing USD 9,500/t to the upside as the red metal is poised for its first weekly gain in seven weeks Russia's Gazprom continues gas shipments to Europe via Ukraine, with Friday volume at 62.4mln cubic metres (prev. 63.3mbm) Central Banks BoE Chief Economist Pill says inflation is the largest challenge faced by the MPC over the past 25 years. The MPC sees an upside skew in the risks around the inflation baseline in the latter part of the forecast period. Pill said further work needs to be done. "In my view, it would be preferable to have any such gilt sales running ‘in the background’, rather than being responsive to month-to-month data news.", via the BoE. ECB's Kazaks hopes the first ECB hike will happen in July, according to Bloomberg. ECB's Muller says focus needs to be on fighting high inflation, according to Bloomberg. ECB's Visco says the ECB can move out of negative rate territory; a June hike is "certainly" out of the question but July is perhaps the time to start Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (May) 3.70% vs. Exp. 3.65% (Prev. 3.70%); Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (May) 4.45% vs. Exp. 4.60% (Prev. 4.60%) Fed's Kashkari (2023 voter) said they are removing accommodation even faster than they added it at the start of COVID and have done quite a bit to remove support for the economy through forward guidance. Kashkari stated that he does not know how high rates need to go to bring inflation down and does not know the odds of pulling off a soft-landing, while he is seeing some evidence they are in a longer-term high inflation regime and if so, the Fed may need to be more aggressive, according to Reuters US Event Calendar Nothing major scheduled DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The good thing about having all these injuries in recent years is that when it comes down to any father's football matches or sport day races I now know that no amount of competitive juices make getting involved a good idea. However my wife has not had to learn her lesson yet and tomorrow plays her first netball match for 37 years in a parents vs schoolgirls match. The mums had a practise session on Tuesday and within 3 minutes one of them had snapped their ACL. I'll be nervously watching from the sidelines. Markets were also very nervous yesterday after a torrid day for risk sentiment on Tuesday. Although equities fell again yesterday it was all fairly orderly. This morning Asia is bouncing though on fresh China stimulus, something we discussed in yesterday's CoTD here. More on that below but working through things chronologically, earlier the Stoxx 600 closed -1.37% lower, having missed a large portion of the previous day’s US selloff, but generally continues to out-perform. US equities bounced around, with the S&P 500 staging a recovery from near intraday lows after the European close, moving between red and green all day (perhaps today's option expiry is creating some additional vol) before closing down -0.58%. This sent the index to a fresh one year low and puts the week to date loss at -3.06%, having declined -18.68% since its January peak. Barring a major reversal today, the index is now on track to close lower for a 7th consecutive week for the first time since 2001. In terms of the sectoral breakdown, it was another broad-based decline yesterday, but consumer discretionary stocks (+0.13%) recovered somewhat following their significant -6.60% decline the previous day. Consumer staples, meanwhile, continued their poor run, falling -1.98%, while tech (-1.07%) was not far behind. Those losses occurred against the backdrop of a fresh round of US data releases that came in beneath expectations, which also helped the dollar index weaken -0.93% to mark its worst daily performance since March. First, there were the weekly initial jobless claims for the week through May 14, which is one of the timeliest indicators we get on the state of the economy. That rose to 218k (vs. 200k) expected, which is its highest level since January. Then there was the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing business outlook survey for May, which fell to a two-year low of 2.6 (vs. 15.0 expected). And finally, the number of existing home sales in April fell to its lowest level since June 2020, coming in at an annualised rate of 5.61m (vs. 5.64m expected). The broader risk-off move that created meant that sovereign bonds rallied on both sides of the Atlantic. Yields on 10yr Treasuries were down -4.7bps to 2.84%, which follows their -10.2bps decline in the previous session. We didn’t get much in the way of Fed speakers yesterday, but Kansas City Fed President George nodded to recent equity market volatility, saying that it was “not surprising”, and that whilst policy wasn’t aimed at equity markets, “it is one of the avenues through which tighter financial conditions will emerge”. So no sign yet of the Fed being unhappy about tighter financial conditions so far, and markets are continuing to fully price in two further 50bp moves from the Fed in June and July. Nobody said getting inflation back to target from such lofty levels would be easy. So if you’re looking for a Fed put, it may take a while. Later on, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari drove that point home, saying he was not sure how high rates ultimately needed to go, but said the Fed must ensure inflation does not get embedded in expectations. Over in Europe debt moves were more significant yesterday, having not taken part in the late US rally on Wednesday. Yiields on 10yr bunds (-8.0bps), OATs (-7.4bps) and BTPs (-6.2bps) all saw a reasonable decline on the day. Over in credit as well, iTraxx Crossover widened +10.2bps to 478bps, which surpasses its recent high earlier this month and takes it to levels not seen since May 2020. We also got the account from the April ECB meeting, although there wasn’t much there in the way of fresh headlines, with hawks believing that it was “important to act without undue delay in order to demonstrate the Governing Council’s determination to achieve price stability in the medium term.” That group also said that the monetary policy stance “was no longer consistent with the inflation outlook”. But then the doves also argued that moving policy “too aggressively could prove counterproductive” since monetary policy couldn’t tackle “the immediate causes of high inflation.” Asian equity markets are trading higher this morning after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowered key interest rates amid the faltering economy. They cut the 5-year loan prime rate (LPR) – which is the reference rate for home mortgages for the second time this year from 4.6% to 4.45%, the largest cut on record, as Beijing seeks to revive the ailing housing sector to prop up the economy. Meanwhile, it left the 1-year LPR unchanged at 3.7%. Across the region, the Hang Seng (+1.83%) is leading gains in early trade with the Shanghai Composite (+1.11%) and CSI (+1.41%) also trading up. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+1.08%) and Kospi (+1.75%) are trading in positive territory. Outside of Asia, equity futures in DMs indicate a positive start with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.75%), NASDAQ 100 (+1.01%) and DAX (+1.13%) all notably higher. In other news, Japan’s national CPI rose +2.5% y/y in April, the highest for the headline rate since October 2014 and compared to the previous month’s +1.2% increase. Oil prices are lower with Brent futures -0.77% down to $111.18/bbl, as I type. To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK retail sales and German PPI for April, as well as the advance Euro Area consumer confidence reading for May. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Müller, Kazāks, Šimkus, Centeno and De Cos, along with the BoE’s Pill. Finally, earnings releases include Deere & Company. Tyler Durden Fri, 05/20/2022 - 08:02.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytMay 20th, 2022

Stocks extend sell-off after rise in jobless claims, with S&P 500 heading toward bear market

Stocks continue to fall after notching their worst day since 2020 in the previous session. Weekly jobless claims were the highest since January. A traders works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.Michael M. Santiago/Getty Stocks fell Thursday, with the S&P 500 moving closer to a bear market. Weekly jobless claims rose by 21,000 to 21,8000, the highest level since January.  Oil prices were lower and yields fell.  Stocks fell Thursday, adding to steep losses as economic growth concerns were underscored by a rise in weekly jobless, leaving investors to keep watch on S&P 500 as it moved closer to bear market territory. The S&P 500 was looking at a second day of losses following the release of US labor market data. Weekly jobless claims rose by 21,000 to 218,000, with the highest figure since January at hinting at some weakness in the job market. The state of the retail sector was also on the minds of investors after Kohl's slashed its full-year outlook. The S&P 500 was moving closer to a bear market. A decline to 3834.83 would mark at 20% drop from its all-time high of 4,818.62 that it logged in early January.Here's where US indexes stood at 9:30 a.m. on Thursday:    S&P 500: 3,893.03, down 0.78% Dow Jones Industrial Average: 31,159.38, down 1.05% (330.69 points)Nasdaq Composite: 11,384.60, down 0.4%Around the markets, Cathie Wood says it's 'ridiculous' that Tesla got booted out of the S&P 500's ESG index.The crash of TerraUSD will be followed by more cryptocurrency failures, warned SEC chief Gary Gensler. Oil prices fell. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 3.9% to $105.30 per barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained 2.9% to $105.91. Gold gained 1.2% to $1,837.50 per ounce. The 10-year yield dropped 11 basis points to 2.78%. Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $29,536.81.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderMay 19th, 2022

Futures Jump Amid Optimism China"s Covid Lockdowns Are Ending

Futures Jump Amid Optimism China's Covid Lockdowns Are Ending Another day, another dead cat-bouncing, bear market rally. After Monday's flattish session which saw tech names slump on fresh inflation fears, Nasdaq futures rebounded on Tuesday, setting up technology stocks for solid gains after a six-week rout as investors were encouraged by China's easing covid lockdowns and amid speculation that Beijing regulators may ease a yearlong clampdown on internet companies at an upcoming meeting with tech executives. Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 2% by 7:00 a.m. in New York after the underlying gauge sank on Monday on concerns about a slowdown in economic growth; S&P 500 futures rose 1.6%. Treasury yields rose modestly above 2.90%, and the dollar retreated. Bitcoin managed to rebound back over $30K. Confirming what we said almost three weeks ago, Shanghai reported three days of zero community transmission, a milestone that could lead officials to start unwinding a punishing lockdown. However, flareups elsewhere in China showed how hard it is to tackle the omicron strain. Among notable moves in US premarket trading, Twitter shares fell 3.3%, set to extend declines for an eighth straight session amid uncertainties around the deal with Elon Musk, while Citigroup rose 4.9% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway unexpectedly disclosed a new stake in the lender, a return to banks for the billionaire who purged many of his bank holdings several years ago. Tech names including Advanced Micro Devices, Tesla and Nvidia were among the biggest premarket gainers as growing recession concerns prompt markets to reasses just how many rate hikes the Fed will pull off before it is forced to reverse. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks climbed as Bitcoin rose above $30,000 on Tuesday in cautious trading, with the fallout from a collapsed stablecoin continuing to keep sentiment in check. Chinese stocks in US jumped across the board in premarket trading on speculation that regulators may ease a yearlong clampdown on internet companies at an upcoming meeting with tech executives. Here are the most notable premarket movers: Twitter (TWTR US) shares fell 2.4% in premarket trading, on course to extend their seven-day streak of declines, as uncertainties around a deal by buyer Elon Musk weigh on the stock. Tesla (TSLA US) shares rallied 3% in premarket trading. Chinese stocks in US jump across the board in premarket trading on speculation that regulators may ease a yearlong clampdown on internet companies at an upcoming meeting with tech executives. Alibaba (BABA US) +6.2%, JD.com (JD US) +5.6%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) +7% and Baidu (BIDU US) +3.6% Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks climb in US premarket as Bitcoin rises above $30,000 on Tuesday in cautious trading, with the fallout from a collapsed stablecoin continuing to keep sentiment in check. Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +7.8%; Coinbase (COIN US) +6.8%; Marathon Digital (MARA US) +6.1% Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Sandler, which says in note that the company’s core businesses are running well and mid-to-long-term catalysts remain intact. Stock gains 3.6% in New York premarket trading. United Airlines Holdings’ (UAL US) updated second-quarter guidance is “a solid step in the right direction,” Citi says. United’s shares gained 4.3% in premarket trading. Bird Global (BRDS US) shares jump as much as 40% in US premarket trading with DA Davidson noting management’s announcement of a plan to streamline operations. Take-Two (TTWO US) reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings helped by popular video games like NBA 2K22. The company’s shares rise 5.4% in premarket trading. Global-e Online (GLBE US) shares slump as much as 30% in US premarket trading as analysts slash their price targets on the e-commerce software firm after it lowered its full-year guidance for revenue and gross merchandise value. Imperial Petroleum (IMPP US) shares plunge 48% in US premarket trading. The shipping company priced an underwritten public offering of 72.7m units at $0.55 per unit, with expected gross proceeds of ~$40m. US stocks have been roiled in the past six weeks as the combination of high inflation and hawkish central banks fueled fears of a potential recession. While some strategists including Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson expect equities to fall further before finding a floor, they don’t foresee a recession as their base case. The main focus today will be on US retail sales data, which are expected to show a rise of 1% in April. “Investors’ appetite for riskier assets is on the rise after many welcomed today’s positive unemployment and GDP figures” from the eurozone and UK, said Pierre Veyret, an analyst at ActivTrades Plc. “The improving virus situation in China is also blowing a wind of relief in investors’ trading minds.” A challenging global economic outlook amid elevated food and record fuel costs, and tightening monetary settings continues to shape sentiment.  Oil has jumped to about $114 a barrel and an index of agricultural prices is at a record high. But one bond-market measure - the five-year breakeven rate - is signaling inflation has peaked, while the latest virus developments raised hopes China’s damaging lockdowns may soon be eased. On Monday, New York Fed President John Williams on Monday downplayed deteriorating liquidity conditions in financial markets, saying it was to be expected as investors grapple with uncertainty over global events and shifting U.S. monetary policy. No less than six Fed speakers - including Chair Jerome Powell - are due to speak later Tuesday. In Europe, technology and basic-resources stocks led a broad-based advance of the Stoxx Europe 600 following a rally in Chinese tech shares on optimism Beijing may ease up on a yearlong clampdown. Italy's FTSE MIB adds 1.6%, FTSE 100 lags, adding 0.7%. Miners, financial services and banks are the strongest-performing sectors. Equities were also buoyed by data showing the euro-area economy expanded more than initially estimated at the start of the year as the region moved past a wave of Covid-19 infections and defied headwinds from the early days of the war in Ukraine. Here are the biggest European movers: Clariant shares rise as much as 8.7% after the specialty chemical company announced its governance agreement with SABIC will expire at the June 24 AGM, and won’t be renewed. Imperial Brands climbs as much as 7.9% after the tobacco company reduced its losses from next-generation products and continued on a turnaround plan. Daimler Truck gains as much as 7.8% in Frankfurt; Oddo BHF notes strong 1Q report that will reassure in the current environment, while Citi says the company delivered an “encouraging” set of results. Engie rises as much as 6.9%, hitting the highest since March 1, after the French energy company boosted its profit guidance on higher European energy prices. CaixaBank advances as much as 5.4% after the Spanish lender released a new strategic plan that predicts a jump in a key profitability metric and announced a EU1.8b share buyback program. Prosus and Naspers both raised to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan following the broker’s upgrade of Tencent. Prosus shares gain as much as 6.5% in Amsterdam, Naspers climbs as much as 6.7% in Johannesburg. ContourGlobal gains as much as 34% after US private equity firm KKR agreed to buy the power generation business for 263.6p/share in cash, representing a premium of 36% to Monday’s close. Vodafone erases losses after dropping as much as 4.2% as the telecom operator’s forecast for adjusted Ebitda after-leases missed consensus estimates at mid- point. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced for a third day -- its longest winning streak since mid-March -- amid a jump in some technology firms on the back of hopes for an unwind of Chinese lockdowns that have hurt the global economic outlook as well as a dialing back of Beijing’s regulatory crackdowns. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.5%, on track for a third day of gains. Chinese tech giants Tencent and Alibaba contributed most to the gain, while chipmakers TSMC and Samsung also helped. Shanghai reported no new Covid infections in the broader community for a third day, hitting a crucial milestone toward reduced restrictions. China’s top political advisory body is hosting a meeting Tuesday with some of the nation’s largest private-sector firms, sparking hopes for an improved business climate.  “The mood in Asia is risk on,” said Xue Hua Cui, a China equity analyst at Meritz Securities in Seoul. “Whether this remains a dead cat bounce or not depends on how quickly demand recovers following the end of Shanghai lockdowns.” Hong Kong outperformed, with the Hang Seng Index rising more than 3%. Benchmarks in India also advanced more than 2%, even as state-run insurer Life Insurance Corporation of India dropped in its Mumbai trading debut after a record initial public offering for the nation.  Japanese equities gained with Asian peers amid hopes that China will ease up on Covid lockdowns and regulatory crackdowns. The Topix rose 0.2% to close at 1,866.71. Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 0.4% to 26,659.75. Recruit Holdings contributed the most to the Topix gain, rising 2% after its earnings report. Out of 2,172 shares in the index, 1,164 rose and 932 fell, while 76 were unchanged. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3% to close at 7,112.50, taking its winning run to a third session. Miners and banks contributed the most to the gauge’s advance. Beach Energy was among the top performers, climbing with other energy shares as oil rallied. Brambles was the biggest laggard after saying CVC won’t be putting forward a proposal for the pallet maker. Investors also assessed minutes from the RBA’s May meeting. The central bank said it considered three options for the size of its first interest-rate increase since 2010. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 11,137.88. India’s key gauges surged on Tuesday, boosted by Reliance Industries Ltd. which climbed the most since early March. Still, Life Insurance Corp. of India, the country’s biggest listing so far, slumped on debut. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 2.5%, its biggest jump in three months, to 54,318.47 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 2.6%. All of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. climbed, led by a gauge of metal companies. Reliance Industries advanced 4.2%, providing the biggest boost to the Sensex, which had all 30 members trading higher.  “It’s a much-needed breather for the bulls after five weeks of slide and we may further rise,” said Ajit Mishra, vice-president research at Religare Broking Ltd. “Since all the sectors are participating in the rebound, we suggest focusing more on stock selection. Despite strong gains in the broader market, shares in the state-controlled insurer plunged 7.8%, following a $2.7 billion IPO, India’s biggest on record. The stock trimmed losses from the low, but failed to touch the listing price in the session. LIC’s first-day performance makes for the second-worst debut among 11 global companies that listed this year after raising at least $1 billion through first-time share sales.  In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell a third consecutive day and the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. The pound lead G-10 gains followed by Scandinavian and Antipodean currencies. The pound rallied and gilts slumped across the curve after a stronger-than-expected reading of the UK employment data stoked speculation that a tighter labor market may prompt the BOE to continue its monetary tightening cycle beyond a widely expected rate rise next month. Average weekly earnings surged 7% in the three months through March, compared to the 5.4% figure economists had expected. The euro rose on the back of a broadly weaker dollar. Bunds slid as haven demand was unwound. Italian bonds also tumbled as money markets wagered on up to 98bps of ECB hikes by December. The Aussie strengthened for a third day while Australia’s sovereign bonds fell after minutes from RBA’s May meeting indicated the central bank considered an outsized rate hike. The RBA said it considered three options for the size of its first interest-rate increase since 2010, according to minutes of its May 3 policy meeting, when it raised the cash rate by 25 basis points. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also benefitted from expectations that Covid lockdowns in Hong Kong and Shanghai will be lifted. The yen gave up earlier gains as US yields resumed their climb, which also weighed on Japan government bonds. In rates, yields rose as Treasuries cheapened with losses led by front-end of the curve, following a sharper bear flattening move across EGBs after ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said he supports a quarter-point increase in interest rates in July and that a bigger move may be justified if data show inflation worsening. US Treasury yields cheaper by up to 5.5bp across front-end of the curve, the 10Y TSY trading at 2.91% last and flattening 2s10s spread by 2.2bp on the day; 2-year German yields cheaper by 23bp on the day following Knot comments while German 10s are cheaper by 4bp vs. Treasuries. In U.S. session, focus on a stacked Fed speaker slate led by Chair Jerome Powell who will be interviewed during a Wall Street Journal live event in the afternoon. The Dollar issuance slate includes Export Development Canada 5Y SOFR, OKB 3Y SOFR and JICA 5Y SOFR; six deals priced $9.1n Monday in order books that were 3.3x oversubscribed In commodities, WTI drifts 0.2% higher to trade at around $114. Spot gold rises roughly $3 to trade above $1,825/oz. Base metals are mixed; LME tin falls 1.6% while LME zinc gains 2.4%. European gas prices hit four-week low after EU revised guidelines for purchases of Russian supplies. To the day ahead now, and there’s an array of central bank speakers including Fed Chair Powell, along with the Fed’s Bullard, Harker, Kashkari, Mester and Evans, ECB President Lagarde and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe. Data releases include US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for April, along with the NAHB’s housing market index for May. Elsewhere, there’s also the UK unemployment reading for March. Finally, earnings releases include Walmart and Home Depot. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.3% to 4,057.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.6% to 440.47 MXAP up 1.4% to 162.83 MXAPJ up 2.2% to 535.18 Nikkei up 0.4% to 26,659.75 Topix up 0.2% to 1,866.71 Hang Seng Index up 3.3% to 20,602.52 Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,093.70 Sensex up 2.1% to 54,080.42 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,112.53 Kospi up 0.9% to 2,620.44 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.99% Euro up 0.4% to $1.0480 Brent Futures up 0.3% to $114.53/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,827.11 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.42% to 103.75 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The euro-area economy grew more than initially estimated at the start of the year as the region moved past a wave of Covid-19 infections and defied headwinds from the early days of the war in Ukraine. Economic output rose 0.3% in the first quarter, exceeding a flash reading of 0.2%, according to Eurostat data released Tuesday. Employment, meanwhile, gained 0.5% during same period The UK will lay out its plan to amend its post-Brexit trade deal Tuesday in a direct challenge to the European Union, which is insisting that Prime Minister Boris Johnson must honor the agreement he signed China’s main bond trading platform for foreign investors has quietly stopped providing data on their transactions, a move that may heighten concerns about transparency in the nation’s $20 trillion debt market after record outflows The American and European Union chambers of commerce in separate briefings said their members are rethinking their supply chains and whether to expand investment in the face of China’s zero tolerance approach to combating Covid-19 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he won’t allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO because of their stances on Kurdish militants, throwing a wrench into plans to strengthen the western military alliance after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were positive but with gains capped after the uninspiring lead from Wall St and growth concerns. ASX 200 was kept afloat by strength in the commodity-related sectors after recent gains in underlying prices. Nikkei 225 traded marginally higher with Japan seeking to pass an extra budget by month-end and will begin permitting entry to a small number of tourists. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both firmer with tech spearheading the outperformance in Hong Kong amid hopes of an easing of the crackdown on the sector, while the mainland lagged amid economic concerns and despite Shanghai reporting no cases outside of quarantine for a 3rd consecutive day. Top Asian News China's state planner said China's economy faces increasing downward pressure, while it will step up support for manufacturing companies, contact-intensive services, small companies and home businesses, according to Reuters. Senior Chinese officials are to meet with tech industry chiefs today amid talk of crackdown easing, according to Nikkei. It was later reported that China's top political consultative body began a conference on promoting the sustainable and healthy development of the digital economy, according to state media. Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam said they will proceed with the planned COVID curbs easing on May 19th, according to Bloomberg. BoJ Deputy Governor Amamiya said it is important to continue current powerful easing to firmly support the economy and that long-term interest rates have been stable since the adoption of fixed-rate operations, while he added that if monetary easing is reduced now, it would make the 2% price goal an even more distant target, according to Reuters. Japan is to permit small groups of tourists to visit this month as a trial ahead of its border reopening, according to Japan Times. European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%, taking impetus from and extending on a positive APAC handover as the regions COVID situation improves. Stateside, futures are firmer across the board, ES +1.8%, following yesterday's  relatively lacklustre session with participants awaiting numerous Fed speak, including Chair Powell. Twitter (TWTR) prospective purchaser Musk says that his offer was based on the Co.'s SEC filing being accurate, however, yesterday the CEO refused to show proof of less than 5% of fake/spam accounts; deal cannot move forward until this has been disclosed. -3.5% in the pre-market. Home Depot Inc (HD) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 4.09 (exp. 3.67/3.67 GAAP), Revenue 38.9bln (exp. 36.71bln); Raises Fiscal 2022 Guidance. +2.5% in the pre-market Top European News UK Foreign Secretary Truss is to declare her intention to bring forward legislation that rips up parts of the post-Brexit trade deal on Northern Ireland, according to LBC. Expected around 12:30BST/07:30ET Irish Foreign Minister Coveney says he spoke with UK Foreign Minister Truss on Monday, notes the EU and UK sides haven't met since February and says it is "time to get back to the table" ECB is expected to raise the deposit rate in July according to 39 out of 39 respondents in a Reuters survey, while 26 out of 48 economists see the deposit rate at 0% in Q3 and 21 out of 48 see the deposit rate at 0.25% in Q4. FX Pound the standout G10 performer in wake of outstanding UK labour report; Cable clears string of resistance levels on the way towards 1.2500 and EUR/GBP probes 0.8400 after breaching technical supports . Kiwi and Aussie relish renewed risk appetite and latter also helped by hawkish RBA minutes; NZD/USD above 0.6350 and 1.3bln option expiries at 0.6300, AUD/USD back on 0.7000 handle. Greenback concedes ground ahead of top tier US data and raft of Fed speakers including chair Powell, DXY down to 103.470 vs 104.320 at best; latest session low in wake of ECB's Knot. Franc, Euro and Loonie all up at the expense of the Buck but latter also fuelled by WTI topping USD 115/bbl; USD/CHF sub-parity, EUR/USD surpassing 1.05 in wake of hawk-Knot and USD/CAD near 1.2800. Yen lags as risk sentiment improves and yields outside of Japan rebound firmly; USD/JPY rebounds through 129.00 and just over 129.50. Norwegian Crown boosted by Brent in stark contrast to crude import dependent Turkish Lira and Indian Rupee; EUR/NOK under 10.1500, USD/TRY touches 15.8850 and USD/INR crosses 78.0000 to set fresh ATH Fixed Income Bonds make way for risk revival and brace for US data amidst a raft of global Central Bank speakers. Bunds down to 152.74, Gilts hit 119.25 and 10 year T-note as low as 119-08 before paring some heavy declines UK DMO gets welcome reception for 2015 issuance, but new German Schatz receives cold shoulder even before hawkish comments from ECB's Knot not ruling out a 50 bp July hike if data warrants more than 25 bp China's main bond trading platform is said to have stopped the reporting of bond trades by foreigners following the market downside, according to Bloomberg. Commodities WTI and Brent are firmer in-fitting with broader risk appetite and the aforementioned China COVID improvement; posting gains of circa USD 0.80/bbl. However, upside remains capped amid the ongoing standoff between the EU and Hungary over a Russian import embargo. Iran set June Iranian light crude price to Asia at Oman/Dubai + USD 4.25/bbl, according to a Reuters source   OPEC+ production was 2.6mln below quotas in April, according to a report cited by Reuters; Russian production 1.28mln below the required level in April, sources add. Spot gold is firmer, taking impetus from the USD pressure; though, the yellow metal is yet to move out of earlier ranges. Base metals are bid on risk while Wheat declined amid reports that India is easing some of its export restrictions. Central Banks ECB's Knot says a 25bp hike in July is realistic; says a 50bp rate hike should not be excluded if data in the next few months suggests that inflation is broadening and accumulating. NBH's Virag says they will increase rates further, via Reuters citing slides. NBP's Kotecki says that interest rates will continue to move higher but it is currently difficult to define their target level. US Event Calendar 08:30: April Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 0.5%, revised 0.7% April Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 1.1%, revised 1.4% April Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.7%, prior 0.2%, revised 0.7% April Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.7%, prior -0.1%, revised 0.7% 09:15: April Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.9% 09:15: April Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.4%, prior 0.9% 10:00: March Business Inventories, est. 1.9%, prior 1.5% 10:00: May NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 75, prior 77 Fed Speakers 08:00: Fed’s Bullard Discusses Economic Outlook 09:15: Fed’s Harker Discusses Healthcare as Economic Driver 12:30: Fed’s Kashkari Takes Part in a Moderated Townhall Discussion 14:00: Powell Interviewed During Wall Street Journal Live Event 14:30: Fed’s Mester Gives Opening Remarks to Panel on Inflation 18:45: Fed’s Evans Discusses the Economic Outlook DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Recession fears have continued to dominate markets over the last 24 hours, but Deutsche Bank Research is still the only bank to actually forecast one in the US. The tone was set for the day after some incredibly weak data out of China that we discussed yesterday, but that was then followed up with disappointing survey data from the US, which arrived ahead of an array of central bank speakers today (including Fed Chair Powell). Although markets in Asia are bouncing a little this morning, the S&P 500 (-0.39%) last night followed up its run of 6 consecutive weekly declines with a further loss. It was another volatile day that saw stocks trade in a 1.5% range, including going into positive territory briefly in the afternoon before slipping into the close. Sector dispersion was pretty wide, with energy shares gaining +2.62% and consumer discretionary stocks falling -2.12%, led by Tesla retreating -5.88%. Tech was the next biggest laggard, with the NASDAQ (-1.20%) and FANG+ index (-1.34%) underperforming the broader universe. That still leaves the S&P 500 index around 2% above its recent closing low on Thursday, but remember that if we get another week in negative territory, it would still be the first time since 2001 that the S&P has posted 7 consecutive weekly declines. After opening the week much lower, the STOXX 600 did recover through that day to post a slight +0.04% gain yesterday, continuing its recent outperformance. The prevailing risk-off mood meant that longer-dated sovereign bond yields also ended the day lower for the most part. Those on 10yr Treasuries were down -3.6bps to close at 2.88%, having already fallen by -20.8bps over the previous week as investors priced in a growing risk of recession over Fed and inflation concerns. The decline was split between breakevens and real yields. To be fair 10yr yields have gained +3.3bps this morning in Asia, thus almost reversing yesterday's losses so far. At the short-end, the amount of tightening priced in over the near-term has subsided somewhat of late, as it seems investors are searching high and low for a Fed put following a poor run of risk asset performance and the prior relentless repricing towards a more aggressive monetary tightening. Indeed if you were to stop the month right now, it would be the first month in 10 that the rate priced in by the December 2022 meeting has actually fallen rather than risen. That’s been echoed further out the curve as well, with investors now barely expecting the Fed Funds rate to get above 3% in 2023 at all, even though inflation has proven much stickier than the consensus expected over recent months. As Chair Powell put it in an interview last week, getting inflation back to target will “include some pain”. Markets are starting to price some of that out though. Over in Europe longer-dated sovereign bond yields also moved slightly lower, including those on 10yr bunds (-0.8bps), OATs (-1.4bps) and BTPs (-0.8bps). That came as we heard from Bank of France Governor Villeroy, who said to expect “a decisive June meeting, and an active summer”, which fits into the broader debate recently whereby markets are increasingly expecting an initial hike as soon as July. This saw the 2yr bund increase +3.0bps to 0.12%. Another point of interest were also his comments on the exchange rate, saying that “A euro that is too weak would go against our price-stability objective”. In line with the broader theme this year, one asset class that wasn’t impacted by the risk-off tone was commodities, and both Brent crude (+2.41%) and WTI (+3.36%) moved back above $114/bbl yesterday. This morning, both are seeing slight losses though (-0.36% and -0.46%, respectively). There were major gains for wheat futures (+5.94%) too, which saw a significant daily rise following India’s move over the weekend to restrict their exports. And that went alongside other rises in agricultural goods yesterday including corn (+3.6%) and sugar (+2.66%), which is an incredibly important story for emerging markets in particular given the much higher share of disposable income that consumers put towards food in those countries. Another asset class that has had a bad time of late is Bitcoin, shedding another -3.58% to $29,909 yesterday. This morning it is climbing back above the $30k threshold. Marion Laboure in my team published a piece yesterday looking at the recent selloff in crypto, adding some much needed context for what this means for broader adoption efforts. See here for more. Overnight in Asia, it has been a good start for the Hang Seng (+2.23%) amid optimism that today’s meeting between China’s corporates and regulators may lead to an easing of draconian measures on tech companies. Hong Kong is also on track to ease covid curbs on May 19th, a theme that also lifted the Shanghai Composite (+0.29%) after the city reported a third day of no new infections in the broader community, a threshold that allows it to roll back some of the restrictions. The sentiment is upbeat elsewhere in Asia too, with the Nikkei (+0.35%) and the KOSPI (+0.80%) also rising. This optimism is shared by S&P 500 futures, up +0.31%. Elsewhere, it’s likely that Brexit will be back in the headlines today as UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is expected to make a statement to parliament announcing a new law that would override parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol. For reference, the Protocol is a part of the Brexit deal which the UK and the EU agreed ahead of the UK’s departure, but has been a persistent source of controversy since. Northern Irish unionists view it as undermining their place in the UK because it places an economic border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, and the DUP (the second-largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly) are refusing to help form an executive following their recent elections unless action is taken on the Protocol. The EU have continued to warn the UK against any unilateral action, and there’s been fears of an UK-EU trade war if the row gets worse. There wasn’t much in the way of data yesterday, although the Empire State manufacturing survey for May underwhelmed with a reading of -11.6 (vs. 15.0 expected), which was beneath every estimate in Bloomberg’s survey. There was some easing in the prices paid index though, which fell to a 14-month low of 73.7. To the day ahead now, and there’s an array of central bank speakers including Fed Chair Powell, along with the Fed’s Bullard, Harker, Kashkari, Mester and Evans, ECB President Lagarde and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe. Data releases include US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for April, along with the NAHB’s housing market index for May. Elsewhere, there’s also the UK unemployment reading for March. Finally, earnings releases include Walmart and Home Depot. Tyler Durden Tue, 05/17/2022 - 07:43.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeMay 17th, 2022

Futures Movers: Oil boosted as gasoline prices extend run to all-time highs

Oil futures erase early losses, turning higher as tight supplies allow gasoline to continue a push into record territory......»»

Category: topSource: marketwatchMay 16th, 2022

Rabo: Powell Is More Concerned With Repairing Past Mistakes Than The Consequences Of His Current Actions

Rabo: Powell Is More Concerned With Repairing Past Mistakes Than The Consequences Of His Current Actions By Elwin de Groot and Bas van Geffen of Rabobank “If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family Anatidae on our hands” – Douglas Adams There are several assets that may have managed to pass this duck test in more opportune market environments. However, the true test is usually when the sea is less smooth sailing. On 16 September 2008 the Reserve Primary Fund, a money market fund aimed at retail investors, saw its Net Asset Value fall to $0.97 a share, below the $1 value it was as supposed to have as a protective floor. It was a historic moment and the parting shot for significant outflows in money market funds and another lurch towards a long road of rebuilding trust. For those who are in the business long enough, the current shockwaves reverberating through the crypto market may sound all too familiar. TerraUSD and other stablecoins made headlines this week and roiled cryptomarkets as they rapidly came under such pressure that their promised one- for-one pegs to the US dollar failed miserably. And since cryptos are not backed by underlying ‘traditional’ financial assets, unlike MMFs, the uncoupling with the dollar was even more volatile. In the end, the only buck that talks like a buck, holds value like a buck and trades like a buck is the US dollar. Indeed, most other currencies were also struggling to keep up with the USD’s strength. EUR continued its slide and fell below 1.04, even though the list of ECB officials throwing their weight behind a July rate hike keeps growing with Peter Kazimir openly supporting such a move yesterday. Nonetheless, money markets lowered their rate hike expectations significantly, particularly for next year. It appears that stagnation concerns are currently outweighing inflation, with markets now doubting how long the ECB has before the policy tightening window closes – something we have been arguing for quite some time now. Powell’s reaffirmation in a public radio interview yesterday that the Fed is likely to raise rates by a half percentage point at each of its next two meetings may not be feed for the hawks, but his acknowledgment that “[...] if you had perfect hindsight you’d go back and it probably would have been better for us to have raised rates a little sooner”, still backs those who believe the Fed is now more concerned with repairing past mistakes than the medium-term consequences of its actions. A joint statement by the Finnish president and prime minister that the country should join NATO may also be weighing on EUR. In what seems to be a final bid to deter the applications, Russia has upped its threats that the country “will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature” if Finland joins the alliance. One of these other measures could be cutting the Nordic country off from Russian gas, which could happen as early as today according to Finnish newspapers. Although gas makes up for a relatively small share of Finland’s energy mix, it could hit some key industries, including a leading producer of packaging materials. This could have an economic impact extending far beyond Finland’s borders, especially in an environment where global supply chains are already stressed beyond breaking point. Yesterday Germany accused Russia of using energy as a weapon. The country has come a long way from its “Wandel durch Handel” policy and strong support for Nordstream II, but the EU requiring unanimity for big decisions with a foreign policy element, such as sanctions, shows that its weight is not always enough to make quick decisions. Although the EU has vowed to implement a phased-in oil ban, preferably in the context of a broader sanctions package aimed at Russia, there are now Member States –according to Bloomberg news– that consider “delaying a push to ban Russian oil so they can proceed with the rest of a proposed sanctions package if the bloc can’t persuade Hungary to back the embargo.” Such an oil embargo would likely push the Eurozone and most of its member states into a recession, as we discussed at length here. So some opposition and discussion about its details was always to be expected. But the risk of disentangling the oil ban and the other sanctions may extend those discussions about the details of the ban and thereby delay things further, sending a signal of weakness. As such, it is no surprise that Russia seems to be taking the current window of opportunity to drive a further wedge between member states. We still assume (and believe), though, that the EU will eventually succeed in getting Hungary on board. Meanwhile member states are stepping up measures to soften the huge impact of high energy costs on households – ranging from lower energy duties and taxes to lump-sum payments to households and businesses. In a latest attempt to mitigate the rise in energy bills, Spain and Portugal drafted a plan to cap the gas price per megawatt hour that feeds combined cycle and cogeneration plants. This will drive down the average price of electricity in the wholesale market, which in turn drives the price of regulated energy contracts. The plan has already been approved by Brussels and should be implemented in the countries “as soon as possible”. Our economist Maartje Wijffelaars thinks this could reduce Spanish inflation by as much as 1.4 percentage points in 2023 and provide a growth boost of several tenths of a percentage point. The key question, though, is the financing of these plans. Both countries have said they would do so in a budget neutral way, but that seems an utopian assumption. Day ahead Market participants will be watching whether the recent crypto turmoil feeds into other asset classes. Yesterday’s US market session did indicate that it may be too early to duck the ‘greenback’. The NASDAQ index, which has shown remarkable positive correlation with the crypto sell-off in recent weeks, managed to pare earlier losses and was even able to end the session on a slight positive note. Which is not to say that Bitcoin losses aren’t painful for some; take El Salvador. As Bloomberg reports, the nation lost about $40 million with crypto since September, an amount almost equal to the next coupon payment on its foreign debt. But this –in our view– only highlights the risks of a strong dollar for emerging markets: the list of emerging market currencies that has not depreciated against the USD over the past month is scant. In terms of economic data, it’s a quiet day. Industrial output in the Eurozone is expected to have declined sharply in March (-2% m/m expected), as materials shortages and high input costs bite, whilst demand, such as from China, likely weakened considerably during that month. In the US, markets will be keeping an eye on the US’s import and export price data. These data underscore the contrast with Europe, which is really hit by a historic terms of trade shock. In the US, though, export prices are expected to have risen by 19.2% y/y in April, outstripping import prices by almost 7 percentage points! That, doesn’t mean that households aren’t feeling the pinch. Indeed, later in the day, the preliminary release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey should shed more light on that question. Tyler Durden Fri, 05/13/2022 - 10:21.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytMay 13th, 2022

Futures Jump As Crypto Turmoil Fades, Dip Buyers Make Cautious Appearance

Futures Jump As Crypto Turmoil Fades, Dip Buyers Make Cautious Appearance After dropping to the edge of a bear market, with Eminis sliding to precisely 3,855 or exactly 20% lower than the all time high, US index futures rebounded sharply from the brink (the same way they did on Dec 24, 2018 when the S&P spent a few minutes in a bear market) as the stabilization of much of the cryptosphere (where no new stablecoins suddenly cratered to 0) and an overnight easing in Treasury yields provided some relief after a two-day slide. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.7% as of 730 a.m. in New York. S&P 500 futures were also higher, rising 1.1%, as high as 3976 after dropping to 2,855 yesterday. Twitter shares plunged as much as 26% in New York premarket trading after Elon Musk tweeted that his deal for the social media company was "temporarily on hold." Yields on 10-year US Treasury yields fell for a fourth consecutive day on Thursday, reaching 2.85%, before edging higher again on Friday. The dollar index dipped but remains on course for its longest streak of weekly gains since 2018, while bitcoin and ether reversed several days of harrowing losses to rise back over 30,000 and 2,000, respectively. Abating panic in the cryptocurrency market was among the highlights of a risk-on environment on the last day of the week. Bitcoin added about $1,800 to top $30,000. US cryptocurrency-exposed stocks including Riot Blockchain Inc. and Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. also rallied premarket. In notable premarket moves, Twitter slumped 21% after bidder Elon Musk tweeted deal was “temporarily on hold” pending details about fake accounts. On the other end, Robinhood surged 20% after cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried snapped up a 7.6% stake, while Affirm jumped 30% after earnings. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks climbed as digital assets started to rebound after the recent rout linked to the implosion of the TerraUSD stablecoin. Coinbase rose 11% despite being sued over its role in the promotion and trading of a stablecoin that purportedly had its value pegged to the price of the Japanese yen.  Bank stocks rose in premarket trading Friday, putting them on track to snap a six-day losing streak. Here are all the notable premarket movers: Twitter (TWTR US) shares slump as much as 19% premarket after Musk says deal is “temporarily on hold pending details”. Tesla (TSLA US) shares hit a session high, rising nearly 5% on the news Megacap tech stocks and semiconductor makers rally in US premarket trading amid a broad rebound across growth sectors, while Korean chip peer Samsung was said to be in talks to hike chipmaking prices. Apple (AAPL US) +2.1%, Meta Platforms (FB US) +2.4%, Microsoft (MSFT US) +1.8% Robinhood (HOOD US) shares surge as much as 27% in U.S. premarket trading after cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried disclosed a new 7.6% stake in the online brokerage Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks climb in US premarket trading as digital assets started to rebound after the recent rout linked to the implosion of the TerraUSD stablecoin. Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +7.9%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) +7.2% US-listed Chinese stocks rise in premarket trading, with sentiment boosted by the Fed’s pushback on speculation of steeper interest-rate hikes and Shanghai’s new timeline to end a grueling lockdown. Alibaba (BABA US) +3.3%, JD.com (JD US) +4%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) +4.3%. New Relic (NEWR US) declined 9% in postmarket. It delivered a mixed fourth quarter, according to analysts, with revenue growth coming in ahead of consensus, albeit with a lower beat compared to the last period Figs (FIGS US) sinks as much as 27% in US premarket trading, with Cowen saying that the scrubs maker’s cut to its full-year 2022 sales growth and Ebitda margin guidance is “well below” previous guidance Compass (COMP US) jumpped 7% in extended trading after the real-estate software company reported larger-than-expected revenues in the first quarter, despite guiding toward lower- than-expected second-quarter revenue First Solar Inc. (FSLR US) shares gained 2.8% in extended trading on Thursday, as Piper Sandler upgrades the stock to overweight from neutral Stocks have plunged this year as traders fretted over the impact tighter monetary will have on growth, with the S&P 500 dropping to precisely 20% from its recent peak before bouncing. On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday reaffirmed that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates by a half percentage point at each of its next two meetings, while leaving open the possibility it could do more. The Fed chair also said that whether a soft landing can be executed or not may depend on factors that they cannot control but added they have tools to get inflation under control and that it will ultimately be more painful if high inflation is not dealt with and becomes entrenched. Furthermore, he noted that with perfect hindsight, it would have been better to have hiked rates sooner, according to Reuters. As the Federal Reserve embarks on interest-rate hikes to tame surging inflation, expensive growth shares, including the tech sector, have suffered as higher rates mean a bigger discount for the present value of future profits. This marks a shift in investor outlook after tech stocks had been some of the market’s best performers for years.  “While we continue to see positives for the market, investor sentiment isn’t likely to turn until we get greater clarity on the 3Rs -- rates, recession and risk,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer, UBS Global Wealth Management. “Until then, we favor parts of the market that should outperform in an environment of rising policy rates, slowing growth, and geopolitical uncertainty.” At $1.1 billion, tech stocks suffered their biggest outflows so far this year in the week to May 11, second only to financials, which lost $2.6 billion, Bank of America CIO Michael Hartnett wrote in a note, citing EPFR Global data. By contrast, US stocks overall noted their first inflow in five weeks at $93 million. It’s a “very tough time,” Kathy Entwistle, managing director at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “We’re holding just still and quiet and patient and waiting for some more insights as to where we’re going. We still see a lot of volatility on the horizon." In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index rose 1.2% as the lowest valuations since the start of the pandemic drew buyers. Banks and technology stocks led gains, while autos and telecommunication shares underperformed.  Here are Europe's biggest movers: Evotec shares rise as much as 9.5% after Deutsche Bank analyst Falko Friedrichs raised the recommendation to buy from hold, citing a unique opportunity to invest in a firm with an entire partnered drug pipeline “for free.” Deutsche Telekom shares advance 1.8% after raising full-year outlook for adjusted Ebitda after leases, reflecting higher forecasts for T-Mobile US. Freenet shares gain as much as 4.8% 1Q results show a good start to the year, and there may be scope for a guidance upgrade in 1H22, Citi (buy) writes in note Fortum shares advance as much as 11% on Friday -- the biggest intraday gain since 2009 -- after SEB and Danske Bank raised their recommendation on the stock citing the Finnish utility’s Russia exit and de-risking related to Uniper gas contracts. UCB shares fall as much as 17% after the company said the US FDA said it can’t approve UCB’s psoriasis treatment bimekizumab in its current form, forcing the company and analysts to reasses 2022 expectations. Drax falls as much as 7.6% and is among weakest performers in the Stoxx 600 on Friday after Credit Suisse gives the stock its only negative rating, moving to underperform on elevated power prices. SalMar drops as much as 4%, falling alongside peers in the Norwegian salmon and seafood sector, after a slew of several companies in the sector reported 1Q earnings that came in below expectations. Unipol and UnipolSai drop in Milan trading after releasing first-quarter results and the 2022-2024 strategic plan; analysts note lower-than-expected cumulative dividends in plan for UnipolSai. European Union nations said it may be time to consider delaying a push to ban Russian oil if the bloc can’t persuade Hungary to back the embargo. Wheat production in Ukraine, one of the biggest growers, will fall by one-third compared to last year, according to a US forecast. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rallied as battered technology shares bounced back, with the regional benchmark still on track for its worst weekly losing streak since 2015 on worries about higher interest rates and lockdowns in China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.8%, advancing with US futures as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled rate hikes of more than 50 basis points may be unlikely. SoftBank was among the biggest boosts after its results, along with Tencent and TSMC. Traders said Friday’s rebound was largely driven by the unwinding of short positions following the recent selloff, with many still nervous about how China’s virus measures can complicate the already murky global economic outlook. The Asian equity measure was on track for its sixth-straight weekly decline, down 2.5% in the past five sessions. “We have to be watchful on the impact of China’s lockdowns, that’s going to have an effect on inflation as well as on growth,” said Jumpei Tanaka, a strategist at Pictet. “Up until now, the earnings outlook hasn’t been lowered that much. The market has been adjusting valuations because of the Fed’s rate hikes. The next key point is how corporate earnings will be affected.” Japan’s Nikkei rose 2.6%, boosted by gains in Tokyo Electron after strong profits as well as SoftBank. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 4.5%. India’s key equity indexes fell for a 6th straight session and posted their longest stretch of weekly losses in two years as investors’ appetite faded on the back of the local currency’s plunge to a record low and disappointing earnings.  The S&P BSE Sensex declined 0.3% to 52,793.62 in Mumbai after erasing advance of as much as 1.6% during the session. The NSE Nifty 50 Index retreated 0.2% to its lowest level since July 30. Both gauges have retreated 3.7% and 3.8% for the week respectively and fallen for a fifth straight week, their longest run of losses since April 2020. “The fear of rising inflation and expectations of more rate hikes in the near term are weighing on investors’ minds,” according to Kotak Securities analyst Amol Athawale.“Traders are selling at every opportunity given that there seems to be no respite from the negative news flows.” The Sensex and Nifty are now about 14.5% off their peak levels in Oct.  Ten of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. dropped on Friday, led by metal companies. For the week, utilities stock gauge was the worst performer, dropping about 11%.  ICICI Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, easing 2.7%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 15 rose while rest fell. In rates, Treasuries were pressured lower as stock futures pushed through Thursday’s session highs, following gains across European equities. 10-year TSY yields rose to around 2.90%, cheaper by 5bp on the day and sitting close to session highs into early session -- both bunds and gilts underperform slightly across the sector. Risk sentiment was boosted by a rebound in cryptocurrencies, leaving Treasury yields cheaper by up to 6bp across long-end of the curve where 20-year sector underperforms. Long-end led losses steepening 5s30s by 2bp on the day and 2s10s by 2.8bp. The Dollar issuance slate is empty so far; six deals were priced for $11.5b Thursday, taking weekly total to $21.7b vs. $30b projected -- two names decided to stand down. Bund, gilt and UST curves bear-steepen. Peripheral spreads widen, short-dated BTPs lag, widening 5bps to core. Yields on Japan’s debt fell even as those on Treasuries rise across the curve in Asia amid higher equities. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slumped and the greenback weakened against all of it Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen as investor demand for haven assets ebbed after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against speculation of more aggressive interest-rate hikes. Risk sensitive Scandinavian currencies as well ask the Australian dollar led gains. The main theme in the FX options space Friday is gamma selloff following the large swings this week. Still, demand for low-delta exposure on a haven basis remains better bid, with greenback topside in good demand versus the euro and the pound. European government bonds followed US Treasuries lower, snapping a recent rally. Treasury yields rose by 3-7 bps as the curve bear- steepened. The yen pared early weakness after BOJ’s Kuroda stressed FX stability. China’s yuan strengthens against the dollar following warnings from the CBIRC with gains fading following soft loan data. In commodities, Crude futures advance, WTI gains stall near $108. Base metals trade poorly with much of the LME complex down over 1%. Spot gold trades in a narrow range near $1,823/oz. In crypto, Bitcoin rose back above $30,000.  Binance said that withdrawals for Lunar and UST will open when the market becomes more stable, will suspend spot trading for LUNA/BUSD and UST/BUSD at 09:30BST, May 13th. To the day ahead now, and data releases include Euro Area industrial production for March, along with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for May. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Kashkari and Mester, as well as the ECB’s Centeno, Nagel and Schnabel. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.1% to 3,970.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 429.53 MXAP up 1.7% to 160.25 MXAPJ up 1.9% to 522.21 Nikkei up 2.6% to 26,427.65 Topix up 1.9% to 1,864.20 Hang Seng Index up 2.7% to 19,898.77 Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,084.28 Sensex up 1.2% to 53,564.26 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.9% to 7,075.11 Kospi up 2.1% to 2,604.24 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.91% Euro up 0.2% to $1.0403 Brent Futures up 0.8% to $108.30/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,822.04 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.25% to 104.59 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Calls are growing for China’s government to sell more bonds to pay for extra stimulus to boost an economy facing its greatest challenges since the initial few months of the pandemic in 2020 For global investors trying to gauge the fallout from surging interest rates and slowing economic growth, Hong Kong is quickly emerging as a must-watch market. While Hong Kong’s $466 billion foreign-reserves stockpile and plentiful interbank liquidity suggest little chance of an imminent crisis, signs of financial stress are building UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said the Brexit settlement in Northern Ireland is causing economic and political harm and called on the European Union to be flexible, comments likely to be seen as an attempt to publicly align himself with Boris Johnson after reports of a rift With the U.K. wilting under the fastest inflation in three decades, supermarkets are raising prices at an even quicker rate, according to a new analysis prepared for Bloomberg. That’s turning the screws on shoppers who are already grappling with higher gas and heating bills and falling real incomes Some EU nations are saying it may be time to consider delaying a push to ban Russian oil so they can proceed with the rest of a proposed sanctions package if the bloc can’t persuade Hungary to back the embargo Beijing reported a slight increase in new Covid-19 cases after officials late Wednesday denied the city will be locked down amid growing concern the Chinese capital’s response to a persistent outbreak is about to be intensified Investors are deep in risk-off mood with outflows from stocks, bonds, cash and gold, Bank of America strategists said, citing EPFR Global data A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks were firmer as risk momentum picked up following on from the volatile session on Wall St where the major indices finished mixed but almost wiped out all losses after a late ramp up heading into the close. ASX 200 traded with respectable gains and back above the 7,000 level with tech frontrunning the advances. Nikkei 225 outperformed as focus remained on earnings, while SoftBank surged amid buyback hopes and despite a record loss. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp joined in on the elated mood with Hong Kong led by strength in tech, although the advances in the mainland were moderated by the mixed COVID headlines with Beijing to conduct the next round of mass COVID testing, while Shanghai aims to achieve zero community spread by the middle of this month and is considering expanding the scale of output resumption. Top Asian News Shanghai Vice Mayor said they aim to have no community spread of coronavirus by mid-May and are considering expanding the scale of production resumption, while they will aim to open up, ease traffic restrictions and open shops in an orderly manner, according to Reuters. Shanghai is to prioritise resuming classes for grades 9, 11 and 12, while supermarkets, convenience and department stores will resume offline operations in an orderly manner and other services such as hairdressing will open gradually, according to Global Times. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission says the Yuan's weakening is not sustainable, adding do not bet on the unilateral devaluation and appreciation or you could face unnecessary losses; retreat in the Yuan was normal market reaction.. BoJ Governor Kuroda said Japan still hasn't achieved a situation where inflation is stably and sustainably at 2%, while the expected rise in inflation is driven mostly by energy costs and is lacking sustainability. Kuroda reiterated the BoJ must continue monetary easing to reach its price target and it is premature to debate an exit from ultra-easy policy, while he also said it is appropriate to maintain the current dovish forward guidance on interest rates, according to Reuters. North Korea said around 350k have shown fever symptoms of an 'unknown cause' and 187.8k are being treated in isolation, while it reported 18k COVID-19 cases and 6 died from a fever in which one was confirmed as a COVID death, according to KCNA and Yonhap. European bourses are firmer as the rebound from Thursday's selloff continues, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%. US futures are similarly bolstered across the board, NQ outpacing peers modestly as Tech recoups, ES +0.9%. Samsung (005930 KS) is reportedly in talks to hike chipmaking prices by up to 20%, according to Bloomberg sources. Elon Musk says the Twitter (TWTR) deal is temporarily on hold, pending details supporting the calculation that spam/fake accounts represent less than 5% of users. Pressure in TWTR subsequent extended to -13% in the pre-market; extending to -19% after five-minutes. Top European News UK PM Johnson is considering as many as 90k job cuts in civil service, according to ITV. GVS Shares Rise After Agreeing to Buy Haemotronic for EU212m EU Starts to Consider Oil Sanctions Delay as Hungary Digs In UCB Plunges After FDA Says It Can’t Approve Psoriasis Drug Now Black Bankers Fight to Hold Finance Accountable for Its Promises FX Dollar and Yen shed some safe haven gains as risk sentiment recovers ahead of the weekend; DXY slips from fresh 2022 peak at 104.920, though still positive, and USD/JPY up near 129.00 vs new retracement low circa 127.50. Aussie takes advantage of pickup in risk appetite and Yuan bounce amidst verbal intervention; AUD/USD hovering under 0.6900 from sub-0.6850 yesterday, USD/CNH and USD/CNY around 6.8000 vs 6.8370 and 6.8110. Euro, Pound and Franc regroup, but remain vulnerable around psychological levels; 1.0400, 1.2200 and parity in EUR/USD, Cable and USD/CHF respectively. Loonie off recent lows post hawkish BoC comments and pre Q1 Loans Survey, USD/CAD close to 1.3000 and 1.1bln option expiry interest between 1.2990 and the round number. Peso underpinned after 50 bp Banxico hike as 1 of the 5 voters dissented for 75 bp. Czech Koruna caught between CNB minutes underlining dovish leaning of new head and Holub opining that May’s hike may not be the final one. Fixed Income Bonds bounce after conceding ground to recovering risk assets. Bunds find support just ahead of 154.00, Gilts in the low 120.00 zone and 10 year T-note at 119-07. Curves re-steepen after decent US 30 year sale completes the Quarterly Refunding remit and attention turns to 20 year and 10 year TIPS auctions next week. Commodities WTI and Brent are firmer moving with the broad rebound in risk-assets, however, upside is capped amid the EU considering omitting the proposed Russia oil embargo from the 6th sanctions round. WTI resides around USD 107/bbl (106.29-108.13 intraday range) and Brent trades just under USD 109/bbl (107.79-109.79 intraday range). Spot gold is contained around USD 1820/oz, though it is coming under modest pressure as the DXY picks up most recently. US Event Calendar 08:30: April Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 2.6%; YoY, est. 12.2%, prior 12.5% 08:30: April Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 4.5%; YoY, est. 19.2%, prior 18.8% 10:00: May U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 64.0, prior 65.2; Current Conditions, est. 69.3, prior 69.4; Expectations, est. 61.5, prior 62.5 10:00: May U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 5.5%, prior 5.4%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 3.0% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap As those working in this industry know, spreadsheet errors can have consequences – often costly ones. My fiancée doesn’t spend as much time on Excel as I do, but with our wedding coming up in July, she’s been using a spreadsheet to keep track of the number of guests. I privately regard this sheet to be an abomination, so in the interests of our future marriage I’ve tried to avoid the subject. But a couple of weeks ago I was told that we needed more guests and had to extend further invites, since we were up against the reception venue’s minimum. This I duly did, although having already invited my friends, I mostly resorted to being a lot more generous on my plus-one policy. At the weekend however, she showed me the spreadsheet. It turned out she hadn’t extended the range on the guest list sum function, and we were already comfortably above what we needed. I won’t tell you how much these extra invites have cost us. Thankfully as a primary school teacher she doesn’t teach Excel to her 5- and 6-year-olds, although I then discovered with even more alarm that she’s considered the spreadsheet expert at her school… It’s been a costly few weeks in markets too as investors have priced in growing recession risks, and over the last 24 hours we’ve seen some incredible intraday volatility across a range of asset classes. At one point in the New York afternoon, the S&P 500 had been down -1.94% at the lows, which left it just shy of a -20% decline since its all-time closing peak that would mark the formal start of a bear market. But then in the final hour there was a major recovery that meant the index only saw a modest -0.13% fall on the day, even if that still marked a fresh one-year low. Futures markets are implying we’re going to see that rally extended today, with those for the S&P up +0.92% this morning. But even if we do see a recovery of that sort of magnitude, then the major losses we’ve already seen this week mean it would still be the first time in over a decade that the index has posted 6 consecutive weekly declines. That pattern of deep losses followed by a late recovery was echoed more broadly yesterday, with the NASDAQ paring back losses of more than -2% on the day to eke out a marginal +0.06% advance. For the FANG+ index (-0.30%), the late recovery wasn’t enough to bring it back into positive territory, and there was a significant milestone reached since its latest slump means it’s now more than -40% beneath its all-time high, which surpasses its losses during the Covid selloff of 2020 when it was “only” down by -34% from peak to trough. European equities lost ground too, and the STOXX 600 (-0.75%) similarly saw a second-half recovery, having been as low as -2.41% earlier in the day. Unlike in April, when the equity declines were triggered by the prospect of a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle and went hand-in-hand with sovereign bond losses, this week’s declines have much more obviously surrounded global growth risks, which you can see in the way that Fed Funds futures are now beginning to take out some of the tightening they’d been pricing in over the year ahead. Only yesterday, the futures-implied rate by the FOMC’s December meeting came down by -5.3bps to still be beneath its level from 3 weeks earlier, which marks a change from the almost relentless march higher we’ve seen over the last 8 months. In fact the only major interruption to that trend so far has come from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late-February, before the inflationary consequences of the conflict reasserted themselves on market pricing. With investors expecting less monetary tightening and seeking out safe havens, yesterday witnessed a major sovereign bond rally across countries and maturities. The 10yr Treasury yield came down -7.3bps to 2.85%, and at the front-end of the curve, 2yr yields were down -7.8bps to 2.56%. This came on a day with another round of Fed speakers sounding the same tune of late, including Chair Powell who said that +50bp hikes at the next two meetings were probably appropriate. Meanwhile, he sounded an even more pessimistic tone on the path of the economy given the impending tightening, noting that getting inflation back to target would “include some pain” and that whether a soft landing can be arranged is up to matters beyond the Fed’s control. Over in Europe the declines were even larger, with yields on 10yr bunds (-14.6bps) undergoing their biggest daily move since the start of March, as yields on 10yr OATs (-13.8bps), BTPs (18.4bps) and gilts (-16.5bps) saw similar declines. A noticeable feature of the recent sovereign bond rally is how investors’ expectations of future inflation have come down significantly over recent days, with the 10yr German breakeven falling from a peak of 2.98% on May 2 to just 2.29% yesterday, which is an even faster decline than the one seen during the initial phase of the Covid pandemic in March 2020. That flight to havens was evident in foreign exchange markets too, where the dollar index strengthened a further +0.97% to levels not seen since 2002. Conversely, that saw the euro close beneath the $1.04 mark for the first time since late-2016, although the traditional safe haven of the Japanese Yen was the top-performing G10 currency yesterday, strengthening +1.27% against the US Dollar and +2.61% against the Euro. When it came to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin hit an intraday low of $25,425 shortly after the European open, which is the first time it’s traded that low since late 2020, before recovering its losses to end the session higher at $28,546, and this morning it’s rebounded another +6.34% to hit $30,356. Overnight in Asia we’ve seen a significant rebound in equity markets too, with the Nikkei (+2.52%), the Hang Seng (+2.00%) and the KOSPI (+1.72%) all seeing sizeable advances, and the Shanghai Comp (+0.56%) also posting a solid gain. Those earlier comments from Chair Powell after the US close have supported risk appetite, particularly since he echoed his previous comments about the Fed being on course for further 50bp hikes at the next couple of meetings, rather than moving towards 75bps in the aftermath of the stronger-than-expected CPI reading. A number of yesterday’s other moves have also begun to unwind, with the Japanese Yen down -0.50% against the US Dollar this morning, whilst yields on 10yr Treasuries have risen +3.6bps overnight. Separately in Shanghai, officials said that they planned to stop community spread of Covid-19 and start reopening by May 20, which is the first time that a timeline has been put forward as to when the lockdown might end. Elsewhere yesterday, there was a significant +13.50% rise in European natural gas futures after Gazprom said that gas flows wouldn’t be able to go through the Yamal pipeline because of Russian-imposed sanctions on European companies. But on the other hand, Bloomberg reported that some EU nations were considering a delay in sanctioning Russian oil in light of Hungarian opposition, and instead pushing ahead with the rest of the sanctions package. There were also further signs of the geopolitical shifts as a result of Russia’s invasion, after Finland’s President and Prime Minister endorsed NATO membership, saying the country should apply “without delay”. Staying on the political sphere, tensions have continued to fester between the UK and the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol, and yesterday’s statements from the two sides indicated there was a difficult phone call between UK Foreign Secretary Truss and EU Commission Vice President Šefčovič. The UK Foreign Office’s readout of the call said that “if the EU would not show the requisite flexibility … we would have no choice but to act.” Then Šefčovič said in his own statement that it was “of serious concern that the UK government intends to embark on the path of unilateral action.” So one to watch into next week given press reports we could hear more from the UK side then. Looking at yesterday’s data, the US PPI reading added to the picture of elevated inflationary pressures. The headline monthly gain for April came in at +0.5% as expected, but the March reading was revised up two-tenths to +1.6%, meaning that the year-on-year figure only came down to +11.0% (vs. +10.7% expected). We also had the weekly initial jobless claims for the week through May 7, which came in at 203k (vs. 193k expected). And in the UK, the Q1 GDP reading was a bit below consensus at +0.8% (vs. +1.0% expected), and looking at the monthly reading for March specifically there was actually a -0.1% contraction (vs unchanged expected). To the day ahead now, and data releases include Euro Area industrial production for March, along with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for May. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Kashkari and Mester, as well as the ECB’s Centeno, Nagel and Schnabel. Tyler Durden Fri, 05/13/2022 - 07:56.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytMay 13th, 2022

Slow-Motion Crash Drags Futures Below 3,900; Yields, Cryptos Tumble

Slow-Motion Crash Drags Futures Below 3,900; Yields, Cryptos Tumble The relentless slow-motion crash sparked by the Biden Fed (which is hoping that a market collapse will halt inflation) that has sent stocks lower for the past 6 weeks continued overnight, and Wall Street’s main equity indexes were set for more declines after losing $6.3 trillion in value since their late-March high as stubborn inflation in the world’s biggest economy bolstered the case for more aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.7% at 730am in New York, a day after the underlying gauge sank to its lowest since November 2020 on concerns that higher-than-expected inflation in April would lead to an even more aggressive pace of policy tightening by the Fed. S&P 500 were last down -1% and dropping below 3,900, the level. And with eminis trading around 3,900 means that stocks are now at bearish Morgan Stanley's year-end base case price target of 3900, and 100 points away from Michael Hartnett's Fed put of 3,800. The dollar continues its relentless ascent, sending the euro to a five-year low while the yen also perked up, as investors took a cue from a rally in bonds and ploughed into “safe-haven” currencies on concerns about inflation risks to global economic growth. Meanwhile, bonds around the globe are surging as fears mount over an economic slowdown and traders start pricing in the next recession, sending the yield on 10-year German bunds and US Treasuries down more than 10 basis points to about 2.82%. Among notable premarket moves, Disney shares dropped after the media giant said growth in the second half of the year may not be as fast as previously expected, while Beyond Meat slumped 24% as Barclays downgraded the stock and analysts slashed their price targets following underwhelming results. Bank stocks slump in premarket trading Thursday, set for a sixth straight day of losses. In corporate news, Carlyle Group is set to buy Chinese packaging firm HCP for about $1 billion. Meanwhile, Brookfield Asset Management said it plans to list 25% of its asset-management business in a transaction that would value the new entity at $80 billion. Economic data due late today include initial jobless claims. Here are all the notable premarket movers: Disney (DIS US) shares drop 4.8% in premarket trading after the media giant said growth in the second half of the year may not be as fast as previously expected. Apple (AAPL US) shares fall as much as 1.4% in premarket trading Thursday, putting them on course to open more than 20% below their January peak. Beyond Meat (BYND US) shares slump 24% in US premarket trading as analysts slashed their targets on the plant-based food company following underwhelming results. Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) -6.1% in premarket trading, Marathon Digital (MARA US) -5.8%, MicroStrategy (MSTR US)-10% and Coinbase (COIN US) -7.3% Zoom (ZM US) shares decline as much as 4.5% in US premarket as Piper Sandler analyst James Fish cut the recommendation on the stock to neutral as he sees limited upside to paid video service. Dutch Bros (BROS US) slumps 42% in premarket trading after the drive-thru coffee chain’s guidance lagged analyst estimates, though some analysts see the dip in shares as a buying opportunity. Lordstown Motors (RIDE US) shares jump as much as 27% in U.S. premarket trading after the electric truck maker completed the sale of its factory to Foxconn. Rivian (RIVN US) gains 2.9% in premarket trading after the electric vehicle startup reaffirmed its annual production guidance, even as it navigates through supply chain snarls. Coupang (CPNG US) shares jump as much as 18% in US premarket trading after the Korean e- commerce firm reported a first-quarter loss per share that was narrower than analysts’ expectations. Bumble (BMBL US) shares rise 8.3% in premarket after the company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations, despite currency risks and those related to the war in Ukraine. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks also fell as digital tokens resumed declines after the collapse of the TerraUSD stablecoin, overnight the largest stablecoin, Tether, broke the buck spooking markets further that the contagion is spreading. The hotter-than-expected inflation reading for April raised concern the Fed’s hikes aren’t bringing down prices fast enough and policy makers may have to resort to a 75bps move, rather than the half-point pace markets have come to grips with. Worries such a shift would crimp economic growth, combined with Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s struggles with Covid, are battering risk assets. The data halted a minor rebound in US equities, which are set for their longest weekly streak of losses since 2011, as investors worried that hawkish moves by central banks at a time of surging commodity prices and slowing earnings growth would spark a recession. While some strategists have said the rout has now made stock valuations attractive, others including Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley warned of a bigger selloff. “What these wild market moves are telling us is that investors have very little idea of whether we’re near a short-term base, or whether we’ve got further to fall,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. “The higher-than-expected CPI figure may further fuel fears that the Fed will take policy higher than expected for longer than expected, draining precious liquidity from markets, which have until late been awash with it,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.  “Until we get a meaningful move lower in inflation, not only one print, but a consistent two, three, four prints moving in the right direction, this market may remain range bound,” Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones & Co., said on Bloomberg Television. Citigroup Inc. strategists said growth stocks, including the battered tech sector, will likely remain under pressure as central banks tighten monetary policy, driving yields higher.  “Now that central banks are unwinding monetary support, growth stocks’ valuations have further to fall,” strategists including Robert Buckland wrote in a note. They are especially wary of growth stocks in the US, where the Nasdaq 100 is down 27% this year. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was down 2.2% with mining and consumer-products stocks leading declines. The Euro Stoxx 50 drops as much as 2.8%, Haven currencies perform well. The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources sub-index erased all YTD gains as a slide in metal prices and concerns about inflation fueled a selloff in the sector. Miners are the biggest laggard in the broader European equity benchmark on Thursday as major miners and steelmakers slip along with copper and iron ore prices. The basic resources sector (the sector is still second-best performing in Europe this year so far) fell as much as 5.6%, briefly erasing all YTD losses, and down to the lowest since January 3. Morgan Stanley strategists had downgraded miners to neutral on Wednesday, saying it’s time to take profits in the sector amid concerns inflation will lead to demand destruction. Here are the biggest movers: Telefonica shares rise as much as 4.5% after the Spanish carrier reported what analysts said was a solid set of quarterly earnings. STMicroelectronics gains as much as 4.1% as the chipmaker projects annual revenue of more than $20 billion for 2025-2027 period. Compass Group climbs as much as 2.5%, adding to Wednesday’s 7.4% advance, with Morgan Stanley lifting its price target to a Street-high. JD Sports rises as much as 3% after the UK sportswear chain said like-for-like sales for the 14-week period to May 7 were more than 5% higher than a year earlier. AS Roma advances as much as 15% after US billionaire Dan Friedkin made a tender offer for the roughly 13% of the Italian football team he doesn’t already own. The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources sub- index erases all YTD gains as a slide in metal prices and concerns about inflation fuel a selloff. Rio Tinto declines as much as 6%, Glencore -7.3%, Anglo American -6.9%, ArcelorMittal -4.8%, Antofagasta -7.9% Luxury stocks resume their declines after high US inflation bolstered the case for aggressive monetary tightening, deepening fears of an economic slowdown. Kering slides as much as 5.6%, Hermes -5.5% and Swatch -3.7% SalMar falls as much as 8.2% after the Norwegian salmon farmer published its latest quarterly earnings, which included a miss on operating Ebit. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks resumed their slide after Wednesday’s modest gains, as US inflation topped estimates and new Covid-19 community cases in Shanghai damped prospects for a reopening.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 2%, with tech giants Alibaba and TSMC weighing the most on the gauge. Chinese shares snapped a two-day advance after Shanghai found two infections outside of isolation centers, pushing back the timeline for a relaxation of growth-sapping lockdowns.  US inflation remained above 8% in April, keeping the Federal Reserve on the path of aggressive tightening. That prospect weighed on shares in Asia, as investors also factored in growth implications from continued lockdowns in the world’s second-largest economy. Markets appeared to be unimpressed by China’s Premier Li Keqiang’s comments urging officials to use fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize employment and the economy. Valuations for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index are hurtling toward pandemic lows as the index records a 29% decline from its 2021 peak, posting declines in all but one of the trading sessions so far this month. “We’ve seen nearly the same amount of foreign investor selling in Asia as we saw during the global financial crisis, even though operating conditions aren’t as bad,” Timothy Moe, chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg Television. “On our expected conditions over the next year, somewhere around 13 times should be a fair and appropriate valuation for Asian markets,” he added. Benchmarks in Indonesia and Taiwan were among the biggest decliners in the region, with the Jakarta Composite Index on the cusp of erasing gains for the year. Hong Kong shares also fell as the city intervened to defend its currency for the first time since 2019 In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose to a fresh two-year high as the greenback climbed versus all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. The demand for havens sent the yield on 10-year German bunds and US Treasuries down more than 10 basis points. Stops were triggered in the euro below $1.0490 and 1.0450, weighed by EUR/CHF selling and yen buying across the board, according to traders. The yen rose by as much as 1.2% against the greenback as selling in stocks hurt risk sentiment. The BOJ indicated its lack of appetite for changing policy to help address a slide in the yen to a two-decade low during discussions at a meeting last month, according to a summary of opinions from the gathering. The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell on concern that lockdowns in China’s financial capital will extend, dragging economic growth in the world’s biggest buyer of commodities. In rates, Treasuries extended Wednesday’s rally with yields richer by 6bp to 9bp across the curve, supported by risk-aversion as stocks extend losses. US 10-year yields around 2.82%, down 10bps on the session, and trailing gilts and bunds by 2.2bp and 3bp in the sector; intermediates lead the US curve, richening the 2s5s30s fly by 4bp on the day to tightest levels since March 23. Eurodollars are bid as well with the strip flattening out to early 2024 as rate-hike premium continues to erode. European fixed income extends gains. German and US curves bull-steepen; bunds outperform, richening ~12bps across the belly. Gilts bull-flatten, focusing on soft March GDP data over hawkish comments from BOE’s Ramsden.  STIRs are similarly well bid with red pack euribor, eurodollar and sonia futures all up over 10 ticks. The US auction cycle concludes with $22b 30-year bond sale at 1pm ET; Wednesday’s 10-year is trading more than 10bp lower in yield after 1.4bp auction tail. WI 30-year around 2.965% is above auction stops since March 2019 and ~15bp cheaper than April stop-out. Super-long sectors led gains in Japanese bonds even as the 30-year sale was seen sluggish. In commodities, base metals were under pressure; LME tin slumps over 8%, zinc down over 3.5%. European natural gas surged as much as 13% on supply concerns. Crude futures drop, fading roughly half of Wednesday’s rally. WTI is down over 2% near $103.50. Spot gold trades a narrow range near $1,850/oz. European natural gas prices jumped as disruptions to a key transit route through Ukraine and a move by Moscow to retaliate against sanctions ramped up the risk of supply cuts. Shanghai found two Covid cases outside government-run isolation centers on Wednesday, according to state-run CCTV, dampening prospects for potential easing of lockdowns. Prices of iron ore, the biggest commodity export from Australia, also fell on the news. Looking at the day, data releases include the US PPI reading for April, the weekly initial jobless claims, and UK GDP for Q1. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s De Cos and Makhlouf. And in the political sphere, US President Biden will be hosting ASEAN leaders at the White House, whilst G7 foreign ministers are meeting in Germany. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 3,907.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 1.9% to 419.41 MXAP down 1.7% to 157.21 MXAPJ down 2.5% to 512.05 Nikkei down 1.8% to 25,748.72 Topix down 1.2% to 1,829.18 Hang Seng Index down 2.2% to 19,380.34 Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,054.99 Sensex down 2.1% to 52,935.64 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 6,941.03 Kospi down 1.6% to 2,550.08 Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,849.85 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.48% to 104.34 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.89% Euro down 0.6% to $1.0449 Brent Futures down 2.0% to $105.32/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The EU is looking at creating bond futures and repurchase agreements to bolster its pandemic-era debt program The BOE will have to raise interest rates further to control surging prices, and there’s a risk that the UK’s worst inflation crisis in decades will take longer to ease fully, according to Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden The UK economy unexpectedly contracted in March. Gross domestic product fell 0.1% from February, when growth was flat. It meant the economy expanded just 0.8% in the first quarter, less than the 1% forecast by economists UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will spend the next few days considering whether the UK will introduce legislation to override its post- Brexit settlement with the EU, a move that risks sparking a trade war A massive sell-off in cryptocurrencies wiped over $200 billion of wealth from the market in just 24 hours, according to estimates from price-tracking website CoinMarketCap Finland’s highest-ranking policy makers President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin threw their weight behind an application and Sweden’s government is likely to do so in the coming days Sweden’s Riksbank’s target measure, CPIF, accelerated to 6.4% on an annual basis in April, the highest level since 1991, according to data released on Thursday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected prices to rise by 6.2% A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pc stocks were pressured after the losses on Wall St where the major indices whipsawed in the aftermath of the firmer than expected CPI data and the DJIA posted a fifth consecutive losing streak. ASX 200 was lower amid heavy losses in tech and with financials subdued after flat earnings from Australia’s largest lender CBA. Nikkei 225 weakened with attention on earnings updates and with SoftBank amongst the worst performers ahead of its results later with the Co. anticipated to have suffered a record quarterly loss. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued with early pressure from default concerns after developer Sunac China missed its grace period deadline and warned there was no assurance that the group will be able to meet financial obligations, although the mainland bourse recovered its earlier losses after further policy support pledges by Chinese authorities. SoftBank (9984 JT) - FY revenue JPY 6.2trln (prev. 5.6trln Y/Y). FY net profits -1.7trln (prev. +4.99trln). Foxconn (2317 TT) Q1 net profit TWD 29.45bln (exp. 29.76bln); sees Q2 revenue flat Y/Y, sees smart consumer electronics slightly declining Y/Y. Top Asian News Rupee Tumbles to a Record Low, Stocks Slump on Inflation Woes SoftBank Vision Fund Posts a Record Loss as Son’s Bets Fail Yen Rebound Tipped as Recession Fears Push Down Treasury Yields More Defaults Seen Following Sunac’s Failure: Evergrande Update European bourses are pressured as overnight risk sentiment reverberated into the region, in a continuation of the post-CPI Wall St. move; Euro Stoxx 50 -2.5%. US futures are lower across the board though the magnitude is less extreme, ES -0.6%; NQ fails to benefit from the yield pullback as participants focus on the normalisation's impact on tech. Walt Disney Co (DIS) - Q2 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.08 (exp. 1.19), Revenue 19.25bln (exp. 20.03bln). Disney+ subscribers 137.7mln (exp. 134.4mln). ESPN+ subscribers 22.3mln (exp. 22.5mln) -5.0% in the pre-market. Top European News UK Retailers Sue Truckmakers Over Alleged Price Fixing Rokos Raising $1 Billion as He Joins Macro Hedge Fund Surge Siemens Abandons Russian Market After 170-Year Relationship Hargreaves Tumbles as Peel Notes Macro, Geopolitical Impacts FX DXY tops 104.500 to set new 2022 peak as risk aversion intensifies. Yen regains safe haven premium to buck broadly weak trend vs Dollar, USD/JPY sub-128.50 vs top just over 130.00. Aussie and Kiwi flounder as commodities tumble on demand dynamics'; AUD/USD under 0.6900 and NZD/USD below 0.6250. Euro and Sterling give up big figure levels with the Pound also undermined by worse than forecast UK data; EUR/USD down through 1.0500 then 1.0450, Cable beneath 1.2200 and eyeing 1.2150 next. Swedish Crown holds up in wake of stronger than expected CPI and CPIF metrics; EUR/SEK straddles 10.6000. Yuan crushed as PBoC and Chinese Government reaffirm commitment to provide economic support; USD/CNY 6.7900+, USD/CNH just shy of 6.8300. Forint falls as NBH Deputy Governor contends that aggressive tightening period is over and future hikes likely more incremental. HKMA picks up pace of intervention to defend HKD peg, CNB steps in to support CZK. Fixed Income Debt revival gathers pace amidst risk-off positioning elsewhere. Bunds probe 155.00, Gilts reach 120.71 and 10 year T-note nudges 120-00. BTP supply encounters few demand issues, unlike second US Quarterly Refunding leg ahead of USD 22bln long bond auction. Commodities WTI and Brent are pressured in what has been a grinding move lower during European hours; however, benchmarks were lifted amid Kremlin/N. Korea updates. Currently, the benchmarks are lower by around USD 1.50/bbl. IEA OMR: Revises down oil demand growth projections for 2022 by 70k BPD, amid China lockdowns and elevated prices. Overall decline of Russian supply by 1.6mln BPD in May and 2mln BPD in June; could expand to circa. 3mln BPD from July onwards. Click here for more detail. OPEC MOMR to be released at 13:00BST/08:00EDT. Indian refineries purchased 25-30mln barrels of Russian oil at a discount for delivery in May-June, according to Interfax. Spot gold/silver are pressured amid the USD's revival, but, the yellow metal remains in relatively contained parameters around USD 1850/oz. US Event Calendar 08:30: May Initial Jobless Claims, est. 192,000, prior 200,000 08:30: April Continuing Claims, est. 1.37m, prior 1.38m 08:30: April PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1.4%; YoY, est. 10.7%, prior 11.2% 08:30: April PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 1.0%; YoY, est. 8.9%, prior 9.2% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap It was all about the higher than expected US CPI report yesterday which added to Fed rate expectations, as well as hard landing expectations as revealed through the curve flattening that took place through the rest of the day. Longer dated Treasury yields fell (after initially spiking much higher) and equities fell sharply (S&P 500 -1.65%) after actually being higher for the first half of the US session. So a topsy-turvy day that kept the Vix above 30 for a fifth straight session. In terms of the details of that report, headline monthly CPI surprised to the upside with a +0.3% gain (vs. +0.2% expected), whilst monthly core CPI also surprised to the upside at +0.6% (vs. +0.4% expected). Thanks to base effects from last year, the year-on-year numbers managed to decline in spite of the upside monthly surprises, but they were also higher than expected with headline CPI at +8.3% (vs. +8.1% expected), and core CPI at +6.2% (vs. +6.0% expected). Looking at the components, what will concern the Fed is that there are plenty of signs that inflation pressures remain broad and can’t be pinned on transitory shocks like the spike in energy prices of late. For instance, owners’ equivalent rent (which makes up nearly a quarter of the inflation basket) was up +0.45%, which is its fastest monthly pace since June 2006. Rents also remained strong with a +0.56% increase, which is just shy of its February increase and still the second-highest since December 1987. Food prices (+0.9%) also continued to move higher in April, bringing their year-on-year gain to a 41-year high of +9.4%. One consolation might be that the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean (which removes the outliers in either direction) saw its smallest monthly increase since last August at +0.45%, even if it’s still increasing well above rates seen throughout the 2010s. The fact the release surprised on the upside saw an immediate reaction across asset classes, with 10yr Treasury yields bouncing by more than +14bps intraday during the half hour following the report to 3.07%, before reversing all of this to end the day down -7.0bps to 2.92%. Ultimately the decline in real rates (-14.7bps) offset expectations of higher inflation (+8.1bps), but it was a different story at the front-end of the curve, where 2yr yields rose +2.5bps since the report was seen to raise the likelihood of larger hikes at the coming meetings, with the futures-implied rate for the December meeting rising +4.5bps on the day. In Asia, US 10 year yields are another -3.3bps lower with 2yrs flats. This has left the 2s10s curve at 24.3bps after trading as high as 48.5bps on Monday. In terms of the reaction from Fed officials themselves, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he would support +50bp hikes until policy reaches neutral, which suggests more +50bp hikes than just the next two meetings, which has been the common line from Fed speakers of late. Markets are placing a 58% chance on a +50bp hike at September, up from 49% the day before. Markets also increased the chance they place on the Fed being forced into a +75bp hike even at the June meeting, pricing a 14% chance versus 10% yesterday. We will also get the May CPI release ahead of the next FOMC meeting in June, but by that point they’ll be in their blackout period, so this is the last print they’ll be able to comment on ahead of their next decision, and will frame the chatter around whether 75bps might be back on the table at some point given inflation looks to be proving stickier than many had expected. For equities, the CPI print drove indices lower at the open, but they bounced around all day as volatility remained elevated, ultimately closing near the lows. The S&P 500 fell -1.65%, led by tech and mega cap shares, while the Vix ended above 30 for the fifth straight session for the first time since the post-invasion bout of volatility gripped equity markets. As mentioned, tech stocks were the main underperformer, with the NASDAQ down by -3.18% as investors priced in faster hikes from the Fed this year. Separately in Europe, equities outperformed their US counterparts for a 3rd consecutive day, with the STOXX 600 posting a +1.74% advance but closing well before the US slump. Whilst the main focus yesterday was on the US CPI report, there was significant central bank news in Europe as well after ECB President Lagarde put out a strong signal that July would be when the ECB starts hiking rates for the first time in over a decade. In her remarks, she said that the first hike “will take place some time after the end of net asset purchases”, and that “this could mean a period of only a few weeks”. A July hike would be in line with the call from our own European economists here at DB (link here), who see four consecutive quarter point hikes from July, taking the deposit rate up to +0.50% by year-end. That was then echoed by a separate Bloomberg report later in the session, which said that ECB officials were “increasingly embracing a scenario” where interest rates moved into positive territory by year-end. ECB policy pricing by the end of the year actually fell -1.3bps to 26.5bps, as a broader sovereign bond rally overpowered this. With other ECB speakers having already been signalling their openness to a July hike, European sovereign bonds reacted more to the US CPI report than Lagarde’s remarks. So we ended up with a similar pattern to Treasuries, whereby yields surged following the US release before falling back to end the day lower on growth fears. Ultimately, that meant yields on 10yr bunds were down -1.5bps at 0.98%, and there was a significant narrowing in peripheral spreads too, with the gap between 10yr Italian yields and bunds down -9.9bps. Asian equity markets are weaker overnight. The Hang Seng (-0.94%) is the largest underperformer across the region this morning after the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened into the currency markets for the first time since 2019 to defend the local dollar from capital outflows. The authority bought about HK$1.589 billion from the market to bolster the exchange rate in order to bring it back within the trading band i.e., between 7.75 and 7.85 versus the US dollar. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-0.84%), Kospi (-0.56%) are also trading lower. Mainland Chinese stocks are showing a more mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite (+0.17%) higher while the CSI 300 (-0.07%) is a tad lower. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are flat but Euro Stoxx futures are catching down with the late US move last night and are around -2%. According to the BOJ’s summary of opinions from the April 27-28 meeting, the board brushed aside the idea of countering sharp yen falls with interest rate hikes with several board members arguing in favour of maintaining the central bank’s massive stimulus programme. Oil prices are lower in early Asian trade, taking a pause after Brent crude futures closed +4.93% higher last night. This morning, the contract is -1.15% down at $106.27/bbl as I type. Elsewhere in markets, a significant story over the last 24 hours has been the significant price declines in a number of major cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is at $27,617 as I type, a level not seen since December 2020. Coinbase’s share price was down a further -26.40% yesterday, bringing its losses over the last week alone to almost -60%. A few other headlines worth highlighting. The Dallas Fed announced that Lorie Logan, the current manager of the Fed’s portfolio, would assume the role of President, which makes her a voter on the FOMC next year. Given her remit has been to manage the balance sheet, little is known about her views about monetary policy as of yet. Finally on the Brexit front, there was a further ratcheting up in the comments between the UK and the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol yesterday. UK PM Johnson said that “we need to sort it out”, and Levelling Up Secretary Gove said that “no option is off the table”. From the EU side however, Irish Foreign Minister Coveney said that the EU would need to react if the UK breached international law, and Bloomberg reported that the EU would likely suspend their trade deal with the UK if the UK were to revoke its commitments. To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US PPI reading for April, the weekly initial jobless claims, and UK GDP for Q1. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s De Cos and Makhlouf. And in the political sphere, US President Biden will be hosting ASEAN leaders at the White House, whilst G7 foreign ministers are meeting in Germany. Tyler Durden Thu, 05/12/2022 - 07:57.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeMay 12th, 2022

RUBELLITE ENERGY INC. REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2022 FINANCIAL AND OPERATING RESULTS AND PROVIDES OPERATIONS AND LAND ACQUISITION UPDATE

CALGARY, AB, May 11, 2022 /CNW/ - (TSX:RBY) - Rubellite Energy Inc. ("Rubellite", or the "Company"), a pure play Clearwater oil exploration and development company, is pleased to report first quarter 2022 financial and operating results and provide an operations and land acquisition update. Select financial and operational information is outlined below and should be read in conjunction with Rubellite's unaudited condensed interim financial statements and related Management's Discussion and Analysis ("MD&A") for the three months ended March 31, 2022, which are available through the Company's website at www.rubelliteenergy.com and SEDAR at www.sedar.com. This news release contains certain specified financial measures that are not recognized by GAAP and used by management to evaluate the performance of the Company and its business. Since certain specified financial measures may not have a standardized meaning, securities regulations require that specified financial measures are clearly defined, qualified and, where required, reconciled with their nearest GAAP measure. See "Non GAAP and Other Financial Measures" in this news release and in the MD&A for further information on the definition, calculation and reconciliation of these measures. This release also contains forward-looking information. See "Forward Looking Information". Readers are also referred to the other information under the "Advisories" section in this news release for additional information. FIRST QUARTER 2022 HIGHLIGHTS Rubellite has steadily executed its business plan, running a two-rig drilling program since late November. As of March 31, 2022 there were twenty eight (26.0 net) wells contributing to sales production, with another four (3.5 net) wells rig released and recovering oil-based drilling mud ("OBM"), as compared to sixteen (15.0 net) wells on production at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021 with an additional five (5.0 net) wells recovering OBM. Recoveries of OBM are not recorded as sales production as the OBM is recycled for future drilling operations to the extent possible or sold and credited back to drilling capital. The Company averaged 1,525 bbl/d of sales production during the month of March and achieved its 2,000 bbl/d production milestone in late March. Production progressively ramped up through the first quarter of 2022 as new wells fully recovered base-oil load fluid, filled tank inventories and then commenced delivery to sales terminals. Daily average sales production increased 108% from fourth quarter 2021 levels to average 1,251 bbl/d of conventional heavy oil in the first quarter of 2022 (Q4 2021 - 603 bbl/d), at the high end of first quarter guidance of 1,150 to 1,250 bbl/d (100% conventional heavy oil). Capital expenditures(1) totaled $35.5 million in the first quarter of 2022 (Q4 2021 – $17.2 million). Exploration and development spending of $21.8 million was in-line with previous guidance of first quarter 2022 spending of between $20.0 and $22.0 million, and included $3.1 million for equipment, tubulars and OBM inventory procurement for the remainder of the 2022 drilling program. Land purchases during the first quarter of 2022 were $13.7 million (Q4 2021 – $1.5 million) and comprised 65.1 net sections of highly prospective Clearwater undeveloped lands in strategic areas of the Clearwater play. During the quarter, the Company signed a letter of intent to pursue a farm-in and option agreement (the "Peavine Transaction") in the Peavine area, in the vicinity of recent industry Clearwater drilling activity and southwest of Rubellite's existing option acreage at West Dawson in northern Alberta. The Peavine Transaction provides exposure to 61.25 gross (36.75 net) sections of land highly prospective for the Clearwater formation. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, the Company executed the definitive agreement with respect to the Peavine Transaction. Drilling activity for the first quarter of 2022 totaled eleven (9.5 net) multi-lateral horizontal Clearwater wells, including six (6.0 net) wells rig released at Ukalta, two (2.0 net) wells rig released at Figure Lake and three (1.5 net) wells rig released at Marten Hills prior to the end of the first quarter. The two-rig winter drilling program extended into the early part of the second quarter as one (1.0 net) multi-lateral horizontal well at Ukalta was spud on March 24, 2022 and rig released April 5, 2022, followed by the drilling of a vertical water disposal well at Ukalta, and one (0.5 net) multi-lateral horizontal well at Marten Hills was spud on March 20, 2022 and rig released April 8, 2022. Operating netbacks(1) in first quarter of 2022 were $8.0 million, or $71.02/bbl (Q4 2021 – $1.5 million or $45.48/boe), reflecting strong Western Canadian Select ("WCS") benchmark prices and increased production. After realized losses on risk management contracts of $3.3 million or $29.02/boe (Q4 2021 – gain of $0.1 million or $1.83/boe), operating netbacks were $4.7 million or $42.00/boe (Q4 2021 – $2.6 million or $47.31/boe). Adjusted funds flow(1) was $3.8 million in the first quarter of 2022 (Q4 2021 - $1.5 million), up 153% quarter-over-quarter, driven by the growth in sales production. Cash flow from operating activities was $3.2 million (Q4 2021 - $1.1 million). Net loss was $9.3 million in the first quarter of 2022 (Q4 2021 – $1.3 million) as a result of an unrealized loss on risk management commodity contracts of $10.6 million. On March 30, 2022, Rubellite completed its previously announced bought deal and non-brokered private placement financings, raising gross proceeds of $38.7 million through the issuance of approximately 10.9 million shares priced at $3.55 per share. Adjusted positive working capital(1) at the end of the first quarter of 2022 was $10.9 million, an increase from the end of the fourth quarter of 2021 of $5.4 million as a result of the equity financings and adjusted funds flow, offset by capital spending on drilling activity and land purchases. The borrowing limit on the Company's reserves-based revolving credit facility was increased to $25.0 million during the quarter and the initial term was extended by 12 months to May 31, 2023. (1)  Non-GAAP measure, Non-GAAP ratio or supplementary financial measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. Refer to the section entitled "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures" contained within this news release.   OPERATIONS UPDATE At Ukalta, six (6.0 net) wells were rig released in the first quarter and drilling operations continued through the first two weeks of April as the final Clearwater multi-lateral horizontal well on the 13-35 pad was rig released and a vertical water disposal well was drilled to reduce future water handling costs and enhance field netbacks. Drilling in the Ukalta area is now shut down for spring break-up. During the first quarter, three previously drilled Ukalta development wells completed their OBM recovery in mid-to-late February and recorded an average IP30 rate of 137 bbl/d which is on the Ukalta area type curve(1) of approximately 135 bbl/d. The first three wells of the first quarter 2022 drilling program (the "9-9 pad") completed their OBM recovery phase and IP30 period during the quarter. These wells have been experiencing higher water cuts than directly offsetting wells, are still cleaning up and are producing below the Ukalta area type curve. The last pad of the first quarter 2022 drilling program (the "13-35" pad) had two (2.0 net) wells that rig released in March and one (1.0 net) that was rig released in April. Two of the wells have fully recovered their respective OBM and are in their initial 30-day production periods. The final well has been experiencing higher gas rates during start-up operations which has delayed full recovery of OBM. Production is beginning to stabilize on this pad. Since its inception, Rubellite has drilled 9 wells in the primary Clearwater development zone at Ukalta that have completed their initial 30-day production periods, with an average IP30 rate of 113 bbl/d. Excluding the three high water cut wells on the 9-9 pad, the average IP30 rate is 145 bbl/d. When field conditions allow, drilling operations at Ukalta will re-commence at a new six-well pad, targeting to extend the primary Clearwater zone development to the north end of Rubellite's Ukalta area land base. At Marten Hills, the final eight-leg multi-lateral well of the four (2.0 net) well winter drilling program was rig released in early April. All four wells are located on the same new surface pad and have all recovered their respective OBM and are now producing volumes to sales. Two of the four wells have reached the end of their initial 30-day production periods, recording average IP30 rates of 182 bbl/d as compared to the Marten Hills type curve(1) IP30 of approximately 120 bbl/d. The remaining two wells of the Marten Hills winter drilling program are also performing slightly stronger than the Marten Hills type curve IP30 and are expected to reach the end of their initial 30-day production periods during May. At Figure Lake, during the first quarter, the Company drilled and rig released the last two wells of the four well winter drilling program, which followed up last summer's exploration success at the South Figure Lake pad. The first two south pad development wells in the winter program completed their OBM recovery in late January while the last two wells on the same pad completed their OBM recovery in February. On average, the 4 south pad follow up wells recorded average IP30 rates of 133 bbl/d which compares favorably with the Figure Lake type curve(1) of approximately 115 bbl/d. Drilling operations are expected to recommence at Figure Lake later in the second quarter as surface access conditions permit, with a vertical water disposal well and 12 new horizontal multi-lateral wells planned for the remainder of 2022. In addition to enhancing field netbacks during the second half of 2022, the new on-site water disposal well at Figure Lake is also designed to provide additional reservoir quality information on the prospective Clearwater zone. Drilling costs escalated 5 to 10% during the quarter due to increased OBM costs which are directly related to the price of base oil. In addition, the flow through of higher fuel surcharges and personnel costs and supply chain issues has further impacted the cost of tubulars and other goods and services. The Company has been successful mitigating the impact of inflationary pressures by improving average drilling performance and employing bulk-purchasing and other capital efficiency strategies. (1) Type curve assumptions are based on the Total Proved plus Probable Undeveloped reserves contained in the McDaniel Reserve Report as disclosed in the Company's Annual Information Form which is available under the Company's profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. "McDaniel" means McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. independent qualified reserves evaluators. "McDaniel Reserve Report" means the independent engineering evaluation of the crude oil, natural gas and NGL reserves, prepared by McDaniel with an effective date of December 31 2021 and a preparation date of March 9 2022.   LAND ACQUISITION UPDATE Subsequent to the end of the first quarter, Rubellite executed a definitive agreement for the previously announced Peavine Transaction located in the vicinity of recent industry Clearwater drilling activity and southwest of Rubellite's existing option acreage at West Dawson in northern Alberta. The Peavine Transaction provides exposure to 61.25 gross (36.75 net) sections of land highly prospective for the Clearwater formation. Rubellite plans to access the Peavine lands late in 2022 when frozen ground conditions permit to drill a minimum of two exploratory wells prior to April 1, 2023, targeting to establish production and evaluate the future development potential of these Clearwater lands. Since the end of the first quarter, Rubellite has spent an additional $2.9 million to acquire 52.7 net sections of land through Crown land purchase and other transactions. Including lands acquired in the second quarter of 2022, the Company has grown its land position for exposure to the Clearwater play to over 270 net sections, up 160% from the 104 net sections held by Rubellite at its inception in July of 2021. A significant portion of the newly acquired lands are complementary to existing operating areas in Ukalta and Figure Lake on the southern Clearwater trend, while the remainder of the additional new acreage supplements Rubellite's exploratory acreage in the Northern Clearwater play fairway. 2022 OUTLOOK AND GUIDANCE Rubellite forecasts capital spending(5) of $26.0 to $28.0 million for the remainder of 2022 to drill, complete equip and tie-in up to 22 (20.1 net) multi-lateral horizontal wells in its three core operating areas at Ukalta, Figure Lake and Marten Hills, as well as two (2.0 net) vertical water disposal wells to mitigate water handling costs. The Company is finalizing its licensing, access and logistical plans to drill four to six (3.0 – 4.0 net) exploratory wells on its northern exploration blocks, including lands at West Dawson and Peavine, to complete earning requirements and delineate area type curves prior to April 1, 2023. In addition, Rubellite plans to continue to pursue additional investments to further grow its land base and its inventory of prospective.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaMay 11th, 2022