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Patti Payne: Business leaders radiate feelings of gratitude this season

Gratitude is about incorporating gratefulness into our daily lives, Patti Payne writes, hand in hand with weathering the worst real storms humans can face, both physical and emotional. Both in business and personal life......»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsNov 25th, 2021

Synopsys (SNPS) to Report Q4 Earnings: What"s in the Offing?

Synopsys' (SNPS) Q4 results are likely to reflect solid demand for its product portfolio on rising adoption of AI, 5G, Internet of things, high-performance cloud computing and automotive. Synopsys SNPS is slated to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 results on Dec 1.The company anticipates revenues between $1.138 billion and $1.168 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $1.15 billion, suggesting growth of 12.3% from the year-ago period.Synopsys expects non-GAAP earnings between $1.75 and $1.80 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.78 earnings per share indicates an improvement of 12.7% year over year.The software company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 4.8%.Synopsys, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise Synopsys, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Synopsys, Inc. QuoteFactors to NoteRising impact of artificial intelligence, 5G, internet of things, high-performance computing and the Cloud, and automotive is anticipated to have favored demand for Synopsys’ advanced solutions in the fiscal fourth quarter.Besides, Synopsys has been benefiting from growing demand for its solid product portfolio. Increasing global design activity and customer engagements might have acted as growth drivers in the quarter under review.With the ongoing shift to high-performance cloud computing owing to the pandemic-induced remote working environment, demand for Synopsys’ Intellectual Property (“IP”) solutions, such as PCI Express 5.0 & 6.0, 800G Ethernet, 112G Ethernet and DDR5, have been growing. This is anticipated to get reflected in the fiscal fourth-quarter results.Strong adoption of interface and foundation IP solutions is expected to have boosted revenues for the company’s interface portfolio. Additionally, widespread contract wins and the increasing deployment of the Fusion Platform, including Fusion Compiler, are likely to have driven the to-be-reported quarter’s performance.Synopsys’s partnership with industry leaders like Microsoft and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company are expected to have accelerated the deployment of its cloud solutions, thereby might have aided the company’s top line during the quarter under review.The company’s solid electronic design automation software partner base, which includes Advanced Micro Devices, Juniper Networks, Realtek, Toshiba and Wolfson, is likely to have served as a major revenue driver.Increased design investments in Synopsys’s ARC processors by automotive companies, despite the pandemic-induced headwinds in the automotive space, bode well. Besides, geopolitical challenges, coupled with uncertainties related to restrictions over trade with Huawei Technologies, might have adversely impacted overall business during the fiscal fourth quarter.What Our Model UnveilsOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Synopsys this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell, before they’re reported, with our Earnings ESP Filter.Synopsys currently has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Stocks With Favorable CombinationsPer our model, Lululemon Athletica LULU, AutoZone AZO and Snowflake SNOW have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.Lululemon is set to report third-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Dec 9. The stock has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +1.44%. Lululemon’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average surprise being 25.2%.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings is pegged at $1.39 per share, suggesting year-over-year improvement of 19.8%. LULU’s quarterly revenues are estimated to increase 28.1% year over year to $1.43 billion.AutoZone has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +2.78%. The company is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Dec 7. AZO’s earnings have surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 18.6%.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AutoZone’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $20.65 per share, suggesting a 11% improvement from the year-ago quarter’s figure. The consensus mark for revenues stands at $3.33 billion, suggesting year-over-year growth of 5.6%.Snowflake has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.82%. The company is scheduled to report third-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Dec 1. SNOW’s earnings have surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, the average negative surprise being 2.5%.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Snowflake’s third-quarter bottom line is pegged at a loss of 6 cents per share, suggesting an improvement from the year-ago quarter’s loss of 28 cents. The consensus mark for revenues stands at $304 million, suggesting year-over-year growth of 90.5%. Tech IPOs With Massive Profit Potential: Last years top IPOs surged as much as 299% within the first two months. With record amounts of cash flooding into IPOs and a record-setting stock market, this year could be even more lucrative. See Zacks’ Hottest Tech IPOs Now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report AutoZone, Inc. (AZO): Free Stock Analysis Report lululemon athletica inc. (LULU): Free Stock Analysis Report Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS): Free Stock Analysis Report Snowflake Inc. (SNOW): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksNov 30th, 2021

Disney Under Fire For Blocking Simpsons Episode From Hong Kong Streaming Services

Disney Under Fire For Blocking Simpsons Episode From Hong Kong Streaming Services A month ago we reported that Hong Kong's new pro-China film censorship law could see an eventual ban on Netflix and Amazon and other streaming services. The legislation was part of the continuing unfolding of the sweeping pro-China 'national security law' of June 2020, with the film censorship even working retroactively for any movies or programming "found to be contrary to national security interests". Questions are now being asked about why Disney's streaming service in Hong Kong, Disney Plus, has blocked a popular episode of the "Simpsons". The episode in question features reference to the famous "tank man" photo from the June 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre. The episode entitled "Goo Goo Gai Pan" also features jokes or references that could be deemed offensive to people of Chinese or Asian descent. The Simpsons The censorship law which was enacted late last month brings Hong Kong in closer to conformity to the kind of blatant censoring and wholesale blocking of content that's long existed on the mainland. The law spells out that films are prohibited from any content aiming to "endorse, support, glorify, encourage and incite activities that might endanger national security." According to The Wall Street Journal on Monday: Disney launched its streaming service, Disney+, earlier in November in Hong Kong featuring an array of programming owned by the entertainment giant, including 32 seasons of the animated comedy series. Yet one episode is missing from "The Simpsons" lineup: Titled "Goo Goo Gai Pan," the episode from season 16 centers on a trip to China by the show’s namesake family. Along the way they encounter a plaque at Tiananmen Square in Beijing that reads: "On this site, in 1989, nothing happened." The scene is an obvious sarcastic shot aimed directly at Chinese Communist propaganda and its well-known whitewashing of the whole events of June 4, when the PLA military declared martial law and occupied central parts of Beijing, forcibly quelling the protests through gunfire. In the episode the family actually takes a trip to China where they happen upon the iconic square where "nothing happened".  Chinese state official have downplayed the death toll, saying in the past that up to 200 civilians died in the mayhem, while activists and student leaders have said over 3,000 or more deaths resulted in the PLA crackdown, which included live ammunition, and use of tanks against civilian crowds. Official Chinese media and politicians tens to only reference what they dub "the incident". Confirmed this second by a friend in Hong Kong. S16E12 of The Simpsons is removed from Disney+ in Hong Kong. pic.twitter.com/9QIp2vcOCD — Thor J (@thorcmd) November 27, 2021 The WSJ notes that it's as yet unclear if Disney caved to pressure from China, as the US company has yet to publicly comment on why the episode in question remains blocked. But there's little doubt Disney has in the recent past shown its willingness to "play nice" and avoid offending Beijing while protecting its billions in revenue there: "Disney has huge business interests in China, a market that it and other Hollywood studios are careful not to offend for fear of losing access," the WSJ report describes. "Disney, with resorts in China and Hong Kong and extensive sales from its movie business in the region, has moved aggressively to maintain the peace with China over the years, a fact that has brought it some controversy in the U.S." Shortly after the HK policy was enacted, there were questions over how it would impact US-based streaming services. The AFP observed at the time: "Pro-Beijing lawmakers criticized the government for not including online streaming companies in the current wording, meaning services like Netflix, HBO and Amazon may not be covered but the new rules." But "In response, Commerce Secretary Edward Yau said all screenings, both physical and online, were covered by the new national security law." Tyler Durden Mon, 11/29/2021 - 19:20.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 29th, 2021

A President Betrayed by Bureaucrats: Scott Atlas Exposes The Real COVID Disaster

A President Betrayed by Bureaucrats: Scott Atlas Exposes The Real COVID Disaster Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute, I’m a voracious reader of Covid books but nothing could have prepared me for Scott Atlas’s A Plague Upon Our House, a full and mind-blowing account of the famed scientist’s personal experience with the Covid era and a luridly detailed account of his time at the White House. The book is hot fire, from page one to the last, and will permanently affect your view of not only this pandemic and the policy response but also the workings of public health in general.  Atlas’s book has exposed a scandal for the ages. It is enormously valuable because it fully blows up what seems to be an emerging fake story involving a supposedly Covid-denying president who did nothing vs. heroic scientists in the White House who urged compulsory mitigating measures consistent with prevailing scientific opinion. Not one word of that is true. Atlas’s book, I hope, makes it impossible to tell such tall tales without embarrassment.  Anyone who tells you this fictional story (including Deborah Birx) deserves to have this highly credible treatise tossed in his direction. The book is about the war between real science (and genuine public health), with Atlas as the voice for reason both before and during his time in the White House, vs. the enactment of brutal policies that never stood any chance of controlling the virus while causing tremendous damage to the people, to human liberty, to children in particular, but also to billions of people around the world.  For the reader, the author is our proxy, a reasonable and blunt man trapped in a world of lies, duplicity, backstabbing, opportunism, and fake science. He did his best but could not prevail against a powerful machine that cares nothing for facts, much less outcomes.  If you have heretofore believed that science drives pandemic public policy, this book will shock you. Atlas’s recounting of the unbearably poor thinking on the part of government-based “infectious disease experts” will make your jaw drop (thinking, for example, of Birx’s off-the-cuff theorizing about the relationship between masking and controlling case spreads).  Throughout the book, Atlas points to the enormous cost of the machinery of lockdowns, the preferred method of Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx: missed cancer screenings, missed surgeries, nearly two years of educational losses, bankrupted small business, depression and drug overdoses, overall citizen demoralization, violations of religious freedom, all while public health massively neglected the actual at-risk population in long-term care facilities. Essentially, they were willing to dismantle everything we called civilization in the name of bludgeoning one pathogen without regard to the consequences.  The fake science of population-wide “models” drove policy instead of following the known information about risk profiles. “The one unusual feature of this virus was the fact that children had an extraordinarily low risk,” writes Atlas. “Yet this positive and reassuring news was never emphasized. Instead, with total disregard of the evidence of selective risk consistent with other respiratory viruses, public health officials recommended draconian isolation of everyone.” “Restrictions on liberty were also destructive by inflaming class distinctions with their differential impact,” he writes, “exposing essential workers, sacrificing low-income families and kids, destroying single-parent homes, and eviscerating small businesses, while at the same time large companies were bailed out, elites worked from home with barely an interruption, and the ultra-rich got richer, leveraging their bully pulpit to demonize and cancel those who challenged their preferred policy options.” In the midst of continued chaos, in August 2020, Atlas was called by Trump to help, not as a political appointee, not as a PR man for Trump, not as a DC fixer but as the only person who in nearly a year of unfolding catastrophe had a health-policy focus. He made it clear from the outset that he would only say what he believed to be true; Trump agreed that this was precisely what he wanted and needed. Trump got an earful and gradually came around to a more rational view than that which caused him to wreck the American economy and society with his own hands and against his own instincts.  In Task Force meetings, Atlas was the only person who showed up with studies and on-the-ground information as opposed to mere charts of infections easily downloadable from popular websites. “A bigger surprise was that Fauci did not present scientific research on the pandemic to the group that I witnessed. Likewise, I never heard him speak about his own critical analysis of any published research studies. This was stunning to me. Aside from intermittent status updates about clinical trial enrollments, Fauci served the Task Force by offering an occasional comment or update on vaccine trial participant totals, mostly when the VP would turn to him and ask.” When Atlas spoke up, it was almost always to contradict Fauci/Birx but he received no backing during meetings, only to have many people in attendance later congratulate him for speaking out. Still, he did, by virtue of private meetings, have a convert in Trump himself, but by then it was too late: not even Trump could prevail against the wicked machine he had permissioned into operation.  It’s a Mr. Smith Goes to Washington story but applied to matters of public health. From the outset of this disease panic, policy came to be dictated by two government bureaucrats (Fauci and Birx) who, for some reason, were confident in their control over media, bureaucracies, and White House messaging, despite every attempt by the president, Atlas, and a few others to get them to pay attention to the actual science about which Fauci/Birx knew and care little.  When Atlas would raise doubts about Birx, Jared Kushner would repeatedly assure him that “she is 100% MAGA.” Yet we know for certain that this is not true. We know from a different book on the subject that she only took the position with the anticipation that Trump would lose the presidency in the November election. That’s hardly a surprise; it’s the bias expected from a career bureaucrat working for a deep-state institution. Fortunately, we now have this book to set the record straight. It gives every reader an inside look at the workings of a system that wrecked our lives. If the book finally declines to offer an explanation for the hell that was visited upon us – every day we still ask the question why? – it does provide an accounting of the who, when, where, and what. Tragically, too many scientists, media figures, and intellectuals in general went along. Atlas’s account shows exactly what they signed up to defend, and it’s not pretty.  The cliche that kept coming to mind as I read is “breath of fresh air.” That metaphor describes the book perfectly: blessed relief from relentless propaganda. Imagine yourself trapped in an elevator with stultifying air in a building that is on fire and the smoke gradually seeps in from above. Someone is in there with you and he keeps assuring you that everything is fine, when it is obviously not.  That’s a pretty good description of how I felt from March 12, 2020 and onward. That was the day that President Trump spoke to the nation and announced that there would be no more travel from Europe. The tone in his voice was spooky. It was obvious that more was coming. He had clearly fallen sway to extremely bad advice, perhaps he was willing to push lockdowns as a plan to deal with a respiratory virus that was already widespread in the US from perhaps 5 to 6 months earlier.  It was the day that the darkness descended. A day later (March 13), the HHS distributed its lockdown plans for the nation. That weekend, Trump met for many hours with Anthony Fauci, Deborah Birx, son-in-law Jared Kushner, and only a few others. He came around to the idea of shutting down the American economy for two weeks. He presided over the calamitous March 16, 2020, press conference, at which Trump promised to beat the virus through general lockdowns.  Of course he had no power to do that directly but he could urge it to happen, all under the completely delusional promise that doing so would solve the virus problem. Two weeks later, the same gang persuaded him to extend the lockdowns.  Trump went along with the advice because it was the only advice he was fed at the time. They made it appear that the only choice that Trump had – if he wanted to beat the virus – was to wage war on his own policies that were pushing for a stronger, healthier economy. After surviving two impeachment attempts, and beating back years of hate from a nearly united media afflicted by severe derangement syndrome, Trump was finally hornswoggled.  Atlas writes: “On this highly important criterion of presidential management—taking responsibility to fully take charge of policy coming from the White House—I believe the president made a massive error in judgment. Against his own gut feeling, he delegated authority to medical bureaucrats, and then he failed to correct that mistake.” The truly tragic fact that both Republicans and Democrats do not want spoken about is that this whole calamity is that did indeed begin with Trump’s decision. On this point, Atlas writes: Yes, the president initially had gone along with the lockdowns proposed by Fauci and Birx, the “fifteen days to slow the spread,” even though he had serious misgivings. But I still believe the reason that he kept repeating his one question—“Do you agree with the initial shutdown?”—whenever he asked questions about the pandemic was precisely because he still had misgivings about it. Large parts of the narrative are devoted to explaining precisely how and to what extent Trump had been betrayed. “They had convinced him to do exactly the opposite of what he would naturally do in any other circumstance,” Atlas writes, that is  “to disregard his own common sense and allow grossly incorrect policy advice to prevail…. This president, widely known for his signature “You’re fired!” declaration, was misled by his closest political intimates. All for fear of what was inevitable anyway—skewering from an already hostile media. And on top of that tragic misjudgment, the election was lost anyway. So much for political strategists.” There are so many valuable parts to the story that I cannot possibly recount them all. The language is brilliant, e.g. he calls the media “the most despicable group of unprincipled liars one could ever imagine.” He proves that assertion in page after page of shocking lies and distortions, mostly driven by political goals.  I was particularly struck by his chapter on testing, mainly because that whole racket mystified me throughout. From the outset, the CDC bungled the testing part of the pandemic story, attempting to keep the tests and process centralized in DC at the very time when the entire nation was in panic. Once that was finally fixed, months too late, mass and indiscriminate PCR testing became the desiderata of success within the White House. The problem was not just with the testing method: “Fragments of dead virus hang around and can generate a positive test for many weeks or months, even though one is not generally contagious after two weeks. Moreover, PCR is extremely sensitive. It detects minute quantities of virus that do not transmit infection…. Even the New York Times wrote in August that 90 percent or more of positive PCR tests falsely implied that someone was contagious. Sadly, during my entire time at the White House, this crucial fact would never even be addressed by anyone other than me at the Task Force meetings, let alone because for any public recommendation, even after I distributed data proving this critical point.” The other problem is the wide assumption that more testing (however inaccurate) of whomever, whenever was always better. This model of maximizing tests seemed like a leftover from the HIV/AIDS crisis in which tracing was mostly useless in practice but at least made some sense in theory. For a widespread and mostly wild respiratory disease transmitted the way a cold virus is transmitted, this method was hopeless from the beginning. It became nothing but make work for tracing bureaucrats and testing enterprises that in the end only provided a fake metric of “success” that served to spread public panic.  Early on, Fauci had clearly said that there was no reason to get tested if you had no symptoms. Later, that common-sense outlook was thrown out the window and replaced with an agenda to test as many people as possible regardless of risk and regardless of symptoms. The resulting data enabled Fauci/Birx to keep everyone in a constant state of alarm. More test positivity to them implied only one thing: more lockdowns. Businesses needed to close harder, we all needed to mask harder, schools needed to stay closed longer, and travel needed to be ever more restricted. That assumption became so entrenched that not even the president’s own wishes (which had changed from Spring to Summer) made any difference.  Atlas’s first job, then, was to challenge this whole indiscriminate testing agenda. To his mind, testing needed to be about more than accumulating endless amounts of data, much of it without meaning; instead, testing should be directed toward a public-health goal. The people who needed tests were the vulnerable populations, particularly those in nursing homes, with the goal of saving lives among those who were actually threatened with severe outcomes. This push to test, contact trace, and quarantine anyone and everyone regardless of known risk was a huge distraction, and also caused huge disruption in schooling and enterprise.  To fix it meant changing the CDC guidelines. Atlas’s story of attempting to do that is eye-opening. He wrestled with every manner of bureaucrat and managed to get new guidelines written, only to find that they had been mysteriously reverted to the old guidelines one week later. He caught the “error” and insisted that his version prevail. Once they were issued by the CDC, the national press was all over it, with the story that the White House was pressuring the scientists at the CDC in terrible ways. After a week-long media storm, the guidelines changed yet again. All of Atlas’s work was made null.  Talk about discouraging! It was also Atlas’s first full experience in dealing with deep-state machinations. It was this way throughout the lockdown period, a machinery in place to implement, encourage, and enforce endless restrictions but no one person in particular was there to take responsibility for the policies or the outcomes, even as the ostensible head of state (Trump) was on record both publicly and privately opposing the policies that no one could seem to stop.  As an example of this, Atlas tells the story of bringing some massively important scientists to the White House to speak with Trump: Martin Kulldorff, Jay Bhattacharya, Joseph Ladapo, and Cody Meissner. People around the president thought the idea was great. But somehow the meeting kept being delayed. Again and again. When it finally went ahead, the schedulers only allowed for 5 minutes. But once they met with Trump himself, the president had other ideas and prolonged the meeting for an hour and a half, asking the scientists all kinds of questions about viruses, policy, the initial lockdowns, the risks to individuals, and so on.  The president was so impressed with their views and knowledge – what a dramatic change that must have been for him – that he invited filming to be done plus pictures to be taken. He wanted to make it a big public splash. It never happened. Literally. White House press somehow got the message that this meeting never happened. The first anyone will have known about it other than White House employees is from Atlas’s book.  Two months later, Atlas was instrumental in bringing in not only two of those scientists but also the famed Sunetra Gupta of Oxford. They met with the HHS secretary but this meeting too was buried in the press. No dissent was allowed. The bureaucrats were in charge, regardless of the wishes of the president.  Another case in point was during Trump’s own bout with Covid in early October. Atlas was nearly sure that he would be fine but he was forbidden from talking to the press. The entire White House communications office was frozen for four days, with no one speaking to the press. This was against Trump’s own wishes. This left the media to speculate that he was on his deathbed, so when he came back to the White House and announced that Covid is not to be feared, it was a shock to the nation. From my own point of view, this was truly Trump’s finest moment. To learn of the internal machinations happening behind the scenes is pretty shocking.  I can’t possibly cover the wealth of material in this book, and I expect this brief review to be one of several that I write. I do have a few disagreements. First, I think the author is too uncritical toward Operation Warp Speed and doesn’t really address how the vaccines were wildly oversold, to say nothing of growing concerns about safety, which were not addressed in the trials. Second, he seems to approve of Trump’s March 12th travel restrictions, which struck me as brutal and pointless, and the real beginning of the unfolding disaster. Third, Atlas inadvertently seems to perpetuate the distortion that Trump recommended ingesting bleach during a press conference. I know that this was all over the papers. But I’ve read the transcript of that press conference several times and find nothing like this. Trump actually makes clear that he was speaking about cleaning surfaces. This might be yet another case of outright media lies.  All that aside, this book reveals everything about the insanity of 2020 and 2021, years in which good sense, good science, historical precedent, human rights, and concerns for human liberty were all thrown into the trash, not just in the US but all over the world. Atlas summarizes the big picture: “in considering all the surprising events that unfolded in this past year, two in particular stand out. I have been shocked at the enormous power of government officials to unilaterally decree a sudden and severe shutdown of society—to simply close businesses and schools by edict, restrict personal movements, mandate behavior, regulate interactions with our family members, and eliminate our most basic freedoms, without any defined end and with little accountability.” Atlas is correct that “the management of this pandemic has left a stain on many of America’s once noble institutions, including our elite universities, research institutes and journals, and public health agencies. Earning it back will not be easy.”  Internationally, we have Sweden as an example of a country that (mostly) kept its sanity. Domestically, we have South Dakota as an example of a place that stayed open, preserving freedom throughout. And thanks in large part to Atlas’s behind-the-scenes work, we have the example of Florida, whose governor did care about the actual science and ended up preserving freedom in the state even as the elderly population there experienced the greatest possible protection from the virus.  We all owe Atlas an enormous debt of gratitude, for it was he who persuaded the Florida governor to choose the path of focussed protection as advocated by the Great Barrington Declaration, which Atlas cites as the “single document that will go down as one of the most important publications in the pandemic, as it lent undeniable credibility to focused protection and provided courage to thousands of additional medical scientists and public health leaders to come forward.” Atlas experienced the slings, arrows, and worse. The media and the bureaucrats tried to shut him up, shut him down, and body bag him professionally and personally. Cancelled, meaning removed from the roster of functional, dignified human beings. Even colleagues at Stanford University joined in the lynch mob, much to their disgrace. And yet this book is that of a man who has prevailed against them. In that sense, this book is easily the most crucial first-person account we have so far. It is gripping, revealing, devastating for the lockdowners and their vaccine-mandating successors, and a true classic that will stand the test of time. It’s simply not possible to write the history of this disaster without a close examination of this erudite first-hand account.  Tyler Durden Sun, 11/28/2021 - 12:30.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 28th, 2021

Decades of marketing are the real reason we eat turkey, cranberry sauce, and pumpkin pie every year

A century's worth of Thanksgiving ads in Good Housekeeping magazine help paint a picture of when and how our holiday staples came to be. Initially, turkey competed with other meats, like duck and goose, for centerpiece at the Thanksgiving table.skynesher/Getty Images Over many years, ads have shaped what we consider the quintessential Thanksgiving meal. Turkey wasn't always the bird of choice, and pumpkin pie wasn't considered a staple.  As brands pushed to make their products holiday must-haves, some didn't stick — like Welch's grape juice or Diamond's walnuts. I have always been intrigued by Thanksgiving — the traditions, the meal, the idea of a holiday that is simply about being thankful.For my family, Thanksgiving is all about the food. Some foods, like turkey and mashed potatoes, may be familiar. But there are a few twists. Since I grew up in the Caribbean, I'm allowed a Caribbean dish or two. The reliability of the menu — with a little flexibility sprinkled in — seems to unite us as a family while acknowledging our different cultural backgrounds.Chances are you and your family have similar traditions. Filipino-American families might include pancit. Russian-American families might serve a side dish of borscht. That's what makes Thanksgiving unique. It's a holiday embraced by people regardless of their religion or ethnicity.Yet despite this adaptability, there's a core part of the meal that almost everyone embraces. How did this come to be? Although few appreciate it, advertisers have shaped the meal as much as family tradition.A uniquely broad appealWhen Sarah Josepha Hale, the editor of Godey's Lady's Book, first advocated for Thanksgiving as a national holiday in 1846, she argued that it would unify the country. In our research, my colleagues and I have been able to show that Hale's vision for the holiday has been largely fulfilled: Inclusivity of people and traditions has been Thanksgiving's hallmark quality.A reason for its broad appeal is that it lacks any association with an institutionalized religion. As one interviewee told us, "There is no other purpose than to sit down with your family and be thankful." And after interviewing a range of people — from those born in the US to immigrants from countries like South Africa, Australia, and China – it became obvious that the principles and rituals they embraced during the holiday were universal no matter the culture: family, food, and gratitude.But as a relatively new holiday — one not tied to a religious or patriotic tradition — a shared understanding of the celebration and the meal is crucial to ensure its long-term survival.While there might be subtle variations, the Thanksgiving meal is the lodestone of the holiday, the magnet that brings people together. Today, familiar items constitute the meal: turkey, cranberry sauce, stuffing, gravy, alcohol, salad, apple pie and pumpkin pie. Many of our interviewees tended to serve some version of this list.But why these items and not others? What makes turkey, cranberry sauce and pumpkin pie so special? My colleagues and I studied 99 years of Thanksgiving ads in Good Housekeeping magazine to find out.Marketing a ritualStarting with Thanksgiving's early champion, Sarah Josepha Hale, the history of Thanksgiving is rooted in marketing. Marketers not only helped create many of the rituals and cultural myths associated with the Thanksgiving meal, but they also legitimized and maintained them.Initially, the Thanksgiving turkey competed with other meats, like duck, chicken and goose, for centerpiece at the Thanksgiving table.But by the 1920s, turkey had become the only meat advertised. Early ads would focus on how to prepare and present the perfect bird, promoting branded tools like roasters, ranges, pop-up thermometers, and oven-cooking bags.Iconic Swift's Premium turkey ads focused on the sacredness of the meal by featuring families at prayer, giving thanks before the meal begins. The importance of the turkey to the Thanksgiving celebration dominates, helping to perpetuate the Thanksgiving turkey tradition.Meanwhile, early ads for the Eatmor Cranberry Company positioned their whole cranberries as a perfect complement to any and all Thanksgiving meat dishes. This brand dominated until the 1930s when another brand, Ocean Spray, entered with its canned gelatin cranberry sauce.Ads for both brands implied that cranberry sauce has been around since the first Thanksgiving dinner, which was highly unlikely. However, the brand positioning war successfully promoted cranberry sauce as the natural condiment for the Thanksgiving turkey. Ocean Spray would triumph and, to this day, promotes whole cranberries and canned gelatin.Considered by many to be the quintessential Thanksgiving dessert, pumpkin pie also wasn't present at the first Thanksgiving meal. (The pilgrims lacked the butter, wheat flour and sugar to make the pastry.) Nonetheless, beginning as early as 1925, a range of brands — for example, Borden's, Snowdrift, Mrs. Smith's and Libby's — have competed fiercely to connect pumpkin pie to the season, the holiday and the meal. It's a rivalry that continues to this day.The role of the consumerNot every product category or brand succeeded in becoming a core part of the Thanksgiving meal.A Welch's ad from the 1960s implies that the first Thanksgiving meal included juice made from grapes. In 1928, Diamond marketed their walnuts as an accessory to dress up Thanksgiving dishes. Despite vociferous ad campaigns, few associate Welch's grape juice or Diamond walnuts with Thanksgiving today.But those early 20th-century ads for turkey clearly resonated: Today, nearly 88% of US households have turkey on Thanksgiving, and approximately 20% of the turkeys consumed in any given year are consumed at Thanksgiving. This is a testament to the enduring influence of marketing on the holiday. For brands like Butterball (formerly Swift's Premium), Thanksgiving is big business.Whether you're a turkey fan or not, prefer apple pie to pumpkin pie, enjoy canned gelatin over whole cranberry sauce, by celebrating Thanksgiving, you play a role as well. Marketers may have shaped many of the rituals of the holiday. But all Americans — from all backgrounds — certainly do their part to maintain them.After all, brands need customers to survive.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 24th, 2021

Futures Rise To 4,700 "Max Gamma" As Oil Slide Accelerates

Futures Rise To 4,700 "Max Gamma" As Oil Slide Accelerates U.S. index futures rose again, trading on top of the massive 4700 "max gamma" level despite downbeat data out of Chinese tech names, as investors awaited the latest batch of unemployment data and taking comfort from signals that central banks will stay far behind the curve and keep pledges to overlook faster inflation rather than rush into rate hikes. European stocks were steady and Asian equities fell as Chinese tech stocks tumbled after poor results from Baidu and Bilibili. Treasury yields edged higher, the dollar was little changed and gold declined. Bitcoin retreated for a fifth straight day. Oil prices skidded to a six-week low on concern about a supply overhang and the prospect of China, Japan and the United States dipping in to their fuel reserves, with Brent futures last at $79.77, more than 8% off last month's three-year high. Nasdaq futures rose 86.25 points or 0.53% outperforming S&P 500 futs which were up 11.50 points or 0.25% to 4697.75, after chip giant Nvidia jumped 7% after a sales forecast by the world’s largest chipmaker. Elsewhere in premarket trading, Cisco dropped 6.6% after the computer networking equipment group’s growth and earnings forecast fell short of expectations while Alibaba slid after reporting sales that missed analyst estimates for a second straight quarter. Some other notable premarket movers: EV makers are mixed in U.S. premarket trading, with Rivian Automotive (RIVN US), Lucid (LCID US) and Canoo (GOEV US) all declining and newly-listed Sono (SEV US) extending its bounce Nvidia (NVDA US) shares gain 7% in U.S. premarket trading, with analysts saying the chipmaker delivered a strong enough quarter to justify its punchy valuation Amtech (ASYS US) fell 22% in post-market trading after reporting fourth quarter revenue that missed estimates from two analysts. The semiconductor stock has risen 139% this year through Wednesday’s trading. Kraft Heinz (KHC US) fell 1.6% in postmarket trading on Wednesday after announcing one of its top holders was selling a portion of its stake. Victoria’s Secret (VSCO US) shares gain 13% in U.S. premarket trading as analysts highlight “better-than- feared” 3Q results for the lingerie retailer. JD.com (JD US) shares advanced 2.2% premarket after it reported net revenue for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. “While companies are managing to report solid third-quarter numbers, the ability to do so is being tempered by concerns about slimmer margins,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in London. “One positive thing, aside from the concern over rising inflation, has been the resilience of labor markets, on both sides of the Atlantic.” The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed with most cash indexes giving back early gains or losses to trade flat as travel and consumer companies gained while the energy and minings industries retreated. FTSE 100 underperformed slightly. Oil & gas was the weakest sector followed by mining stocks. European metals and mining stocks fall 0.8%, the second worst performing sub-index on the benchmark Stoxx 600, amid sinking iron ore futures and copper prices. Iron ore retreated as investors weighed a top producer’s forecasts of a balanced market next year and the impact on miners amid a price collapse in recent months. Diversified miners drop, Glencore -0.8%, Anglo American -1%, BHP -0.7%, Rio Tinto -1.1%; the four stocks account for more than 60% of the SXPP. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, on track for a second day of losses, as Baidu helped lead a slump in Chinese technology giants.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.4%, extending its two-day slide to about 0.9%. The Hang Seng Tech Index lost about 3%, as search engine giant Baidu tumbled on worries over the advertising outlook and video-streaming firm Bilibili dropped after posting a larger-than-expected loss. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and China’s CSI 300 benchmark were the worst performing national benchmarks Thursday, while Taiwan’s Taiex managed a small gain. Alibaba also fell, ahead of its highly awaited earnings report later today that may show the impact of Beijing’s regulatory curbs. Japan's Nikkei was down 0.6% in early trade. "We do seem to have stalled somewhat as we head into the year end," said Jun Bei Liu, a portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners in Sydney. "Investors perhaps are just taking a bit of pause," she said, in the wake of a strong U.S. results season, but as inflation and China's slowdown loom as macroeconomic headwinds. “With a bout of earnings having been released and put behind the market, we’re in an environment where investors are inclined to take profits,” said Takashi Ito, an equity market strategist at Nomura Securities in Tokyo. “Investors are likely to cherry pick stocks that have high earnings and ROE and have strong momentum for growth.”  The region’s equities are now poised for a weekly drop after wiping out gains from earlier this week. Anxiety over global inflation has weighed on sentiment as investors search for clues on when central banks will start raising interest rates. Indonesia and the Philippines kept borrowing costs unchanged, as expected, to aid two economies that bore the brunt of Covid-19 outbreaks in Southeast Asia this year. In rates, treasuries were slightly cheaper across long-end of the curve after S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures breached Wednesday’s highs. Yields are higher by ~1bp in 30-year sector, with 2s10s steeper by ~1bp, 5s30s by ~0.5bp; 10-year is ~1.60%, trailing bunds by ~2bp as traders push back on ECB rate-hike pricing. Focal points Thursday include several Fed speakers and a potentially historic 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm ET - at $14BN, the 10Y TIPS reopening is poised to draw a record low yield near -1.14%; breakeven inflation rate at ~2.71% is within 7bp of Monday’s YTD high. Elsewhere, Gilts outperformed richening ~2.5bps across the curve. Peripheral spreads tighten, semi-core widens marginally. In FX, the U.S. dollar erased an earlier modest loss and was flat, with majors mostly range-bound. Treasury yields stabilized from overnight declines; the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers, though most were confined to tight ranges, New Zealand’s dollar led G-10 gains after two-year ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.96% in the fourth quarter from 2.27% in the third, according to survey of businesses published by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Support in euro- Swiss franc at 1.0500 holds for now and consolidation for risk reversals this week suggests that a breach of the key level may not see a big follow through. The pound inched up and is on its longest winning streak in nearly seven months after this week’s jobs and inflation data fueled confidence that the Bank of England will hike rates. The Turkish lira plunged to a new all time low, with the USDTRY rising to 10.93 after the central bank cut rates by 100bps. Currency traders are also assessing a sharp downdraft in the Aussie/yen cross, often a barometer of market sentiment. It fell through its 200-day moving average on Tuesday and has lost almost 4% in a dozen sessions . "You've got the perfect storm there for bears," said Matt Simpson, senior analyst at brokerage City Index. "Fundamentally and technically Aussie/yen looks pretty good with lower oil prices." In commodities, crude futures remained in the red but bounce off worst levels as the potential for SPR releases remains center stage. WTI finds support near $77, recovering toward $78; Brent regains a $80-handle. Spot gold gives back Asia’s small gains, dropping ~$7 to trade near $1,860/oz. Base metals trade poorly, LME zinc and lead underperform. Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for November, the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for November, and the Conference Board’s leading index for October. Central bank speakers include PBoC Governor Yi Gang, the ECB’s Centeno, Panetta and Lane, and the Fed’s Bostic, Williams, Evans and Daly. There’ll also be a number of decisions from EM central banks, including Bank Indonesia, the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Finally, earnings releases include Intuit, Applied Materials and TJX. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,703.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 490.50 MXAP down 0.3% to 199.31 MXAPJ down 0.6% to 650.79 Nikkei down 0.3% to 29,598.66 Topix down 0.1% to 2,035.52 Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 25,319.72 Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,520.71 Sensex down 0.4% to 59,755.91 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 7,379.20 Kospi down 0.5% to 2,947.38 Brent Futures down 0.1% to $80.18/bbl Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,863.45 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.75 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.26% Euro little changed at $1.1327 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg More Wall Street banks are wagering that the Federal Reserve will hike rates at a faster-than-expected pace, with Citigroup Inc. joining Morgan Stanley in backing trades that will profit if the central bank does just that China is releasing some oil from its strategic reserves days after the U.S. invited it to participate in a joint sale, suggesting the world’s two biggest oil consumers are willing to work together to keep a lid on energy costs European countries are increasingly forcing reluctant companies to let employees work from home in an effort to break the rapidly spreading fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic A more in depth look at global markets courtesy of Newsqauwk Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly negative with sentiment in the region subdued amid a lack of significant macro drivers and following the uninspired lead from the US - where the major indices finished a choppy session in the red and the DJIA gave up the 36k status. Nonetheless, the ASX 200 (+0.1%) remained afloat with notable strength in gold miners, as well as some consumer stocks, although advances in the index were limited by losses in the financial and energy sectors after similar underperformance stateside amid a decline in yields and oil prices. The Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) was initially dragged lower by unfavourable currency inflows which overshadowed reports that Japan wants to enhance tax breaks for corporations that raise wages, while shares in Eisai were hit after EU regulators placed doubts regarding the approval of Co. and Biogen’s co-developed Alzheimer’s drug and SoftBank also declined after the US regulator raised concerns regarding Nvidia’s acquisition of Arm. However, the index then briefly returned flat in late trade on reports that the Japanese stimulus package is to require JPY 55.7tln of fiscal spending which is higher than the previously speculated of around JPY 40tln. The Hang Seng (-1.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) weakened after another liquidity drain by the PBoC and with the declines in Hong Kong exacerbated by tech selling, while the losses in the mainland were to a lesser extent with China said to be mulling additional industrial policies aimed to support growth and SGH Macro sources suggested the US and China agreed there would be some substantial progress on trade such as the removal of some punitive tariffs by the US and increased purchases of US products by China, although the report highlighted that it was unclear if this would be from a high-profile announcement or a discrete relaxing of tariffs. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially flat as prices failed to benefit from the subdued risk appetite in Japan and rebound in global peers, while firmer metrics at the 20yr JGB bond auction provided a mild tailwind in late trade although the support was only brief and prices were then pressured on news of the potentially larger than anticipated fiscal spending in PM Kishida's stimulus package. Top Asian News China Property Stocks Sink, $4.2 Billion Rush: Evergrande Update Japan’s Kishida Eyes Record Fiscal Firepower to Boost Recovery China Property Firm Shinsun’s Shares and Bonds Slump JD.com Sales Beat Estimates as Investments Start to Pay Off Major bourses in Europe are choppy, although sentiment picked up following a subdued APAC session but despite a distinct lack of fresh catalysts. US equity futures have also been grinding higher in early European hours, with the NQ (+0.6%) outpacing the ES (+0.3%), RTY (+0.2%) and YM (+0.2%). Back to European cash – broad-based gains are seen across the Euro bourses – which lifted the CAC, DAX and SMI to notch record intraday highs, whilst upside in the UK's FTSE 100 (-0.2%) has been hampered by hefty losses in today's lagging sectors– the Energy and Basic Resources - amid price action in the respective markets. Tech names also see a strong performance thus far as chip names cheer NVIDIA (+6% pre-market) earnings yesterday. Overall, sectors have maintained a similarly mixed picture vs the cash open, with no overarching theme. In terms of individual movers, Swatch (+2.8%) and Richemont (+0.6) piggyback on the increase in Swiss Watch Exports vs 2020 and 2019. Metro Bank (-20%) plumbed the depths after terminating takeover talks with Carlyle. Top European News Royal Mail Hands Investors $540 Million Amid Parcel Surge German Coalition Plans Stricter Rent Increase Regulation: Bild HSBC Sees ECB Sticking With Easy Stance Despite Record Inflation Astra Covid Antibody Data Shows Long-Lasting Protection In FX, the Kiwi has extended its recovery on heightened RBNZ tightening expectations prompted by significant increases in Q4 inflation projections, with some pundits now assigning a greater probability to the OCR rising 50 bp compared to the 25 bp more generally forecast and factored in. Nzd/Usd is eyeing 0.7050 and the 50 DMA just above (at 0.7054 today) having breached the 100 DMA (0.7026), while the Aud/Nzd cross is probing further below 1.0350 even though the Aussie has found some support into 0.7250 against its US rival and will be encouraged by news that COVID-19 restrictions in the state of Victoria are on the verge of being completely lifted. GBP/EUR/DXY - Notwithstanding Kiwi outperformance, the Dollar has lost a bit more of its bullish momentum to the benefit of most rivals, and several of those that compose the basket. Indeed, Cable has popped above 1.3500, while the Euro is looking more comfortable on the 1.1300 handle as the index retreats further from Wednesday’s new y-t-d peak and away from the psychological 96.000 level into a 95.840-642 range. Ahead, IJC and Philly Fed are due amidst another decent slate of Fed speakers, while Eur/Usd will also be eyeing the latest ECB orators for some direction and Eur/Gbp is back around 0.8400 where decent option expiry interest resides (1.1 bn), but perhaps more focused on latest talks between the UK and EU on the NI dispute. CHF/CAD/JPY - The Franc has pared more declines vs the Buck from sub-0.9300 and remains firm against the Euro near 1.0500 in wake of Swiss trade data showing a wider surplus and pick-up in key watch exports, but the Loonie looks a bit hampered by a more pronounced fall in the price of oil as the US calls on other countries for a concerted SPR tap and China is said to be working on the release of some crude stocks. Usd/Cad is tethered to 1.2600 and highly unlikely to threaten 1.1 bn option expiries at the 1.2500 strike in contrast to the Yen that stalled above 114.00 and could be restrained by 1.4 bn between 113.90 and the round number or 1.3 bn from 114.20-25, if not reports that Japan’s stimulus package may require Jpy 55.7 tn of fiscal spending compared to Jpy 40 tn previously speculated. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures are off worst levels but still under pressure amid the prospect of looming crude reserves releases, with reports suggesting China is gearing up for its own release. There were also prior source reports that the US was said to have asked other countries to coordinate a release of strategic oil reserves and raised the oil reserve release request with Japan and China. Furthermore, the US tapping of the SPR could be either in the form of a sale and/or loan from the reserve, and the release from the reserve needs to be more than 20mln-30mln bbls to get the message to OPEC, while a source added that the US asked India, South Korea and large oil-consuming countries, but not European countries, to consider oil reserve releases after pleas to OPEC failed. This concoction of headlines guided Brent and WTI futures under USD 80/bbl and USD 78/bbl respectively with early selling also experienced as European players entered the fray. On the geopolitical front, US National security adviser Jake Sullivan raised with his Israeli counterpart the idea of an interim agreement with Iran to buy more time for nuclear negotiations, according to sources. However, two American sources familiar with the call said the officials were just "brainstorming" and that Sullivan passed along an idea put forward by a European ally. Next, participants should continue to expect jawboning from the larger economies that advocated OPEC+ to release more oil. OPEC+ is unlikely to react to prices ahead of next month's meeting (barring any shocks). Elsewhere, spot gold and silver have been choppy within a tight range. Spot gold trades under USD 1,875/oz - with technicians flagging a Fib around USD 1,876/oz. Spot silver trades on either side of USD 25/oz. Base metals are on a softer footing amid the broader performance across industrial commodities – LME copper remains subdued under the USD 9,500/t level, whilst some reports suggest companies are attempting to arbitrage the copper spread between Shanghai and London. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Nov. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 260,000, prior 267,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.12m, prior 2.16m 8:30am: Nov. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 24.0, prior 23.8 9:45am: Nov. Langer Consumer Comfort, prior 50.3, revised 50.3 10am: Oct. Leading Index, est. 0.8%, prior 0.2% 11am: Nov. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 28, prior 31 Central banks 8am: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Regional Outlook 9:30am: Fed’s Williams speaks on Transatlantic responses to pandemic 2pm: Fed’s Evans Takes Part in Moderated Q&A 3:30pm: Fed’s Daly takes part in Fed Listens event DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap After 9 weeks since surgery, yesterday I got the green light to play golf again from my consultant. Yippee. However he said that he’ll likely see me in 3-5 years to do a procedure called distal femoral osteotomy where he’ll break my femur and realign the leg over the good part of the knee. Basically I have a knee that is very good on the inside half and very bad on the outer lateral side. He’s patched the bad side up but it’s unlikely to last more than a few years before the arthritis becomes too painful. This operation would be aimed at delaying knee replacement for as long as possible! Sounds painful and a bit crazy! Meanwhile I also have a painful slipped disc in my back at the moment that I’m going to have an injection for to hopefully avoid surgery after years of managing it. As you might imagine from reading my posts last week I don’t get much sympathy at home at the moment for my various ailments. In terms of operations and golf I’m turning into a very very poor man’s Tiger Woods! Markets have been limping a bit over the last 24 hours too as the inflation realities seemed to be a bit more in focus. Those worries were given additional fuel from the UK CPI release for October, which followed the US and the Euro Area in delivering another upside surprise, just as a number of key agricultural prices continued to show significant strength. Oil was down notably though as we’ll discuss below. To add to the mix, the latest global Covid-19 wave has shown no sign of abating yet, even if some countries are better equipped for it than others. Starting with inflation, one of the main pieces of news arrived yesterday morning, when the UK reported that CPI came in at +4.2% year-on-year in October. That was above every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg, surpassing the +3.9% consensus expectation that was also the BoE’s staff projection in their November Monetary Policy Report. That’s the fastest UK inflation since 2011, and core inflation also surprised on the upside with a +3.4% reading (vs. +3.1% expected). In response to this, our UK economist (link here) is now expecting that CPI will peak at +5.4% in April, with the 2022 annual average CPI still at +4.2%, which is more than double the BoE’s 2% target. The release was also seen as strengthening the case for a December rate hike by the BoE, and sterling was the second best performing G10 currency after being top the day before in response, strengthening +0.45% against the US dollar. Even as inflation risks mounted however, the major equity indices demonstrated an impressive resilience, with the STOXX 600 (+0.14%) rising for the 17th time in the last 19 sessions. This is the best such streak since June this year, when the index managed to increase 18 of 20 days. We’ll see if that mark is matched today That was a better performance than the S&P 500 (-0.26%). 342 stocks were in the red today, the most in three weeks. Energy (-1.74%) and financials (-1.11%) each declined more than a percent, on lower oil prices and yields, respectively. Real estate (+0.65%) and consumer discretionary (+0.59%) led the way, driven by a +3.25% increase in Tesla. In line with the broad-based retreat, small-caps continued to put in a much weaker performance, with the Russell 2000 shedding -1.16% as it underperformed the S&P for a 4th consecutive session. Sovereign bonds also managed to advance yesterday, with yields on 10yr Treasuries (-4.5bps) posting their biggest decline in over a week, taking them to 1.59%. Declining inflation expectations drove that move, with the 10yr breakeven down -3.2bps to 2.71%, which was its biggest decline in over two weeks. For Europe it was a different story however, with yields on 10yr bunds only down -0.3bps, just as those on 10yr OATs (+0.1bps) and BTPs (+0.5bps) both moved higher. Most of the Treasury rally was after Europe closed though. Those moves came against the backdrop of a fairly divergent performance among commodities. On the one hand oil prices fell back, with WTI (-2.97%) closing beneath $80/bbl for only the second time in the last month as speculation continued that the US would tap its strategic reserves. On the other hand, there was no sign of any relenting in European natural gas prices, which rose a further +0.79% yesterday to bring their gains over the last 7 days to +31.57%. That follows the German regulator’s decision to temporarily suspend certification for Nord Stream 2, which has added to fears that Europe will face major supply issues over the winter. And while we’re discussing the factors fuelling inflation, there were some fresh moves higher in agricultural prices as well yesterday, with wheat futures (+1.48%) hitting an 8-year high, and coffee futures (+4.75%) climbing to their highest level in almost a decade. Central banks will be watching these trends closely. There’s still no word on who’s going to lead the Fed over the next 4 years, but yesterday’s news was that President Biden will make his pick by Thanksgiving. For those keeping track at home, on Tuesday the guidance was within the next four days. So, while it appears momentum toward an announcement is growing, take signaling of any particular day with a grain of salt. On the topic of the Fed, our US economists released their updated Fed outlook yesterday (link here) in which they brought forward their view of the expected liftoff to July 2022, with another rate increase following in Q4 2022. And although it’s not their base case, they acknowledge that incoming data could even push the Fed to speed up their taper and raise rates before June. They don’t see the choice of the next Fed Chair as having much impact on the broad policy trajectory, since inflation next year is likely to still be at high levels that makes most officials uncomfortable, plus the annual rotation of regional Fed presidents with an FOMC vote leans more hawkish next year. So that will constrain the extent to which a new chair could shift matters in a dovish direction, even if they wanted to. Overnight in Asia stocks are trading mostly in the red outside of a flat KOSPI (+0.01%). The Shanghai Composite (-0.13%), CSI (-0.64%), Nikkei (-0.77%) and Hang Seng (-1.35%) are being dragged down by tech after a bout of Chinese IT companies missed earnings continuing a theme of this earnings season. Elsewhere in Japan, the Nikkei reported that the new economic stimulus package could be around YEN 78.9 tn ($691 bn). Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will announce the package on Friday. Elsewhere S&P 500 (+0.08%) and DAX futures (+0.01%) both fairly flat. The House of Representatives is slated to begin debate on the Biden social and climate spending ‘build back better’ bill. Word from Congress suggested it could be tabled for a vote as soon as today, though the House has been as profligate missing self-imposed deadlines to vote on the bill as President Biden has been with the announcement of Fed Chair. In addition to the Build Back Better package, there’ll still be plenty of action in Congress over the next month, with another government shutdown looming on December 3, and then a debt ceiling deadline estimated on December 15. The House Budget Chair echoed Treasury Secretary Yellen’s exhortation, and urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling to avoid a government default. Treasury bills are pricing increasing debt ceiling uncertainty during December; yields on bills maturing from mid- to late-December are around double the yields of bills maturing in November and January. Turning to the pandemic, cases have continued to rise at the global level over recent days, as alarm grows in a number of countries about the potential extent of the winter wave. In Germany, Chancellor Merkel and Vice Chancellor Scholz are taking part in a video conference with state leaders today on the pandemic amidst a major surge in cases. And Sweden’s government said that they planned to bring in a requirement for vaccine passports at indoor events with more than 100 people. In better news however, the UK’s 7-day average of reported cases moved lower for the first time in a week yesterday. Moderna also joined Pfizer in seeking emergency use authorization from the FDA for booster jabs of its Covid vaccines for all adults. Looking at yesterday’s other data, US housing starts fell in October to an annualised rate of 1.520m (vs. 1.579m expected), whilst the previous months’ reading was also revised lower. Building permits rose by more than expected however, up to an annualised rate of 1.650m (vs. 1.630m expected). Finally, Canada’s CPI inflation reading rose to +4.7% in October as expected, marking the largest annual rise since February 2003. To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for November, the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for November, and the Conference Board’s leading index for October. Central bank speakers include PBoC Governor Yi Gang, the ECB’s Centeno, Panetta and Lane, and the Fed’s Bostic, Williams, Evans and Daly. There’ll also be a number of decisions from EM central banks, including Bank Indonesia, the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Finally, earnings releases include Intuit, Applied Materials and TJX. Tyler Durden Thu, 11/18/2021 - 08:05.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 18th, 2021

4 ways managers can check in with their employees during a stressful holiday season

84% of workers report feeling more stressed throughout the holidays, and a good manager's support can make a world of difference. Managers can help their employees feel more supported during the holidays with regular check-ins. Getty Images The holidays can be a busy and stressful time for workers in any industries. Managers should step up during the season to let their employers know they are seen and supported. If you're a manager, take time to check in with your workers, celebrate their wins, and set future goals. It's the most wonderful time of the year ... or is it? As many teams gear up for the holidays by planning elaborate office parties team gift giving and more, not every one of your employees are going to feeling innately jolly this season. In a survey commissioned by Joy Organics, 88% of respondents believe the holidays are the most stressful time of the year, with many (84%) noting that these excessive feelings of stress start as early as November. Whether it's feeling burnt out by trying to get ahead before an extended holiday vacation or simply feeling exhausted, alone, or irritable because of an increased workload and financial stress, the holidays can put undue pressure and strain on your staff's mental health. So before you start looking ahead at all the exciting programs that you're planning next year, here are four important questions every manager should be asking their team to make sure they are supported throughout the festive season. Ask, 'How can I help you?' It's a simple question, but one that packs a huge punch. As leaders, we want to ensure that our employees are working efficiently; However, we also need to make sure that they have everything they need in their arsenal to be able to get the job done. Asking your employees a blanket, open-ended statement such as this leaves the onus on them to share their day-to-day pain points in ways you probably wouldn't be able guess yourself, being a few steps removed from the process. It's also a great way to allow your employees to open up in a way that builds lasting trust, and have them feel supported by their management team. Ask, 'Am I doing a good job at supporting you?'Your No. 1 job as a leader is to inspire and support your team, which is why good leaders need to be cognizant if their other duties are taking away their ability to support their employees to the best of their capabilities. We all have moments when our to-do list seems endless, especially during the busy holiday season. However, we have to check in with ourselves and make sure we aren't putting our own work priorities first, at the expense of our team. In other words, don't be afraid to ask your employees for a performance review! After all, the best way to find out if employees are satisfied with your support is to straight-up ask them. Getting feedback from your employees and knowing where you may lack as a manager can help create stronger interpersonal relationships, higher morale, and an increased feeling of teamwork. Ask, 'What is your biggest accomplishment this quarter?' Who doesn't like celebrating big wins? With so many projects winding down for the year, now is the time to really invest in your team by building them up and congratulating them on their recent successes.This goes for both large-scale accomplishments (think, dramatically improving sales numbers or completing a headache of a year-long project) to more everyday wins (like a great interaction with a customer or awesome social-media feedback). By recognizing outstanding achievements, you build a positive work environment that boosts morale, strengthens motivation, and increases overall employee engagement. Ask, 'What are your goals for next year?'While it may be tempting to solely consider how you can help your team manage this stressful season in the short-term, you would be remiss to not chat about their long-term career goals during your next one-on-one meeting before the holidays. Knowing what your employees' goals are for the future is so important when it comes to navigating your organizational strategy, leadership structure, and more. But beyond this, asking questions about where your employees see themselves helps your team start thinking beyond their everyday projects and tasks and begin planning their future at the company. It's a great way to start setting tangible goals and gear up for an exciting new year! Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 14th, 2021

America"s Woke Colleges Can"t Be Salvaged. We Need New Ones

America's Woke Colleges Can't Be Salvaged. We Need New Ones Authored by Niall Ferguson, op-ed via Bloomberg.com, I'm Helping to Start a New College Because Higher Ed Is Broken If you enjoyed Netflix’s “The Chair” - a lighthearted depiction of a crisis-prone English Department at an imaginary Ivy League college - you are clearly not in higher education. Something is rotten in the state of academia and it’s no laughing matter.   Grade inflation. Spiraling costs. Corruption and racial discrimination in admissions. Junk content (“Grievance Studies”) published in risible journals. Above all, the erosion of academic freedom and the ascendancy of an illiberal “successor ideology” known to its critics as wokeism, which manifests itself as career-ending “cancelations” and speaker disinvitations, but less visibly generates a pervasive climate of anxiety and self-censorship. Some say that universities are so rotten that the institution itself should simply be abandoned and replaced with an online alternative — a metaversity perhaps, to go with the metaverse. I disagree. I have long been skeptical that online courses and content can be anything other than supplementary to the traditional real-time, real-space college experience. However, having taught at several, including Cambridge, Oxford, New York University and Harvard, I have also come to doubt that the existing universities can be swiftly cured of their current pathologies. That is why this week I am one of a group of people announcing the founding of a new university — indeed, a new kind of university: the University of Austin. The founders of this university are a diverse group in terms of our backgrounds and our experiences (though doubtless not diverse enough for some). Our political views also differ. To quote our founding president, Pano Kanelos, “What unites us is a common dismay at the state of modern academia and a belief that it is time for something new.” There is no need to imagine a mythical golden age. The original universities were religious institutions, as committed to orthodoxy and as hostile to heresy as today’s woke seminaries. In the wake of the Reformation and the Scientific Revolution, scholars gradually became less like clergymen; but until the 20th century their students were essentially gentlemen, who owed their admission as much to inherited status as to intellectual ability. Many of the great intellectual breakthroughs of the Enlightenment were achieved off campus. Only from the 19th century did academia become truly secularized and professional, with the decline of religious requirements, the rise to pre-eminence of the natural sciences, the spread of the German system of academic promotion (from doctorate up in steps to full professorship), and the proliferation of scholarly journals based on peer-review. Yet the same German universities that led the world in so many fields around 1900 became enthusiastic helpmeets of the Nazis in ways that revealed the perils of an amoral scholarship decoupled from Christian ethics and too closely connected to the state. Even the institutions with the most sustained records of excellence — Oxford and Cambridge — have had prolonged periods of torpor. F.M. Cornford could mock the inherent conservatism of Oxbridge politics in his “Microcosmographia Academica” in 1908. When Malcolm Bradbury wrote his satirical novel “The History Man” in 1975, universities everywhere were still predominantly white, male and middle class. The process whereby a college education became more widely available — to women, to the working class, to racial minorities — has been slow and remains incomplete. Meanwhile, there have been complaints about the adverse consequences of this process in American universities since Allan Bloom’s “Closing of the American Mind,” which was published back in 1987. Nevertheless, much had been achieved by the later years of the 20th century. There was a general agreement that the central purpose of a university was the pursuit of truth — think only of Harvard’s stark Latin motto: Veritas — and that the crucial means to that end were freedom of conscience, thought, speech and publication. There was supposed to be no discrimination in admissions, examinations and academic appointments, other than on the basis of intellectual merit. That was crucial to enabling Jews and other minority groups to take full advantage of their intellectual potential. It was understood that professors were awarded tenure principally to preserve academic freedom so that they might “dare to think” — Immanuel Kant’s other great imperative, Sapere aude! — without fear of being fired. The benefits of all this defy quantification. A huge proportion of the major scientific breakthroughs of the past century were made by men and women whose academic jobs gave them economic security and a supportive community in which to do their best work. Would the democracies have won the world wars and the Cold War without the contributions of their universities? It seems doubtful. Think only of Bletchley Park and the Manhattan Project. Sure, the Ivy League’s best and brightest also gave us the Vietnam War. But remember, too, that there were more university-based computers on the Arpanet — the original internet — than any other kind. No Stanford, no Silicon Valley. Those of us who were fortunate to be undergraduates in the 1980s remember the exhilarating combination of intellectual freedom and ambition to which all this gave rise. Yet, in the past decade, exhilaration has been replaced by suffocation, to the point that I feel genuinely sorry for today’s undergraduates. In Heterodox Academy’s 2020 Campus Expression Survey, 62% of sampled college students agreed that the climate on their campus prevented them from saying things they believed, up from 55% in 2019, while 41% were reluctant to discuss politics in a classroom, up from 32% in 2019. Some 60% of students said they were reluctant to speak up in class because they were concerned other students would criticize their views as being offensive. Such anxieties are far from groundless. According to a nationwide survey of a thousand undergraduates by the Challey Institute for Global Innovation, 85% of self-described liberal students would report a professor to the university if the professor said something that they found offensive, while 76% would report another student. In a study published in March entitled “Academic Freedom in Crisis: Punishment, Political Discrimination and Self-Censorship,” the Centre for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology showed that academic freedom is under attack not only in the U.S., but also in the U.K. and Canada. Three-quarters of conservative American and British academics in the social sciences and humanities said there is a hostile climate for their beliefs in their department. This compares to just 5% among left-wing faculty in the U.S. Again, one can understand why. Younger academics are especially likely to support dismissal of a colleague who has made some heretical utterance, with 40% of American social sciences and humanities professors under the age of 40 supporting at least one of four hypothetical dismissal campaigns. Ph.D. students are even more intolerant than other young academics: 55% of American Ph.D. students under 40 supported at least one hypothetical dismissal campaign. “High-profile deplatformings and dismissals” get the attention, the authors of the report conclude, but “far more pervasive threats to academic freedom stem … from fears of a) cancellation — threats to one’s job or reputation — and b) political discrimination.” These are not unfounded fears. The number of scholars targeted for their speech has risen dramatically since 2015, according to research by the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education. FIRE has logged 426 incidents since 2015. Just under three-quarters of them resulted in some kind of sanction — including an investigation alone or voluntary resignation — against the scholar. Such efforts to restrict free speech usually originate with “progressive” student groups, but often find support from left-leaning faculty members and are encouraged by college administrators, who tend (as Sam Abrams of Sarah Lawrence College demonstrated, and as his own subsequent experience confirmed) to be even further to the left than professors. There are also attacks on academic freedom from the right, which FIRE challenges. With a growing number of Republicans calling for bans on critical race theory, I fear the illiberalism is metastasizing. Trigger warnings. Safe spaces. Preferred pronouns. Checked privileges. Microaggressions. Antiracism. All these terms are routinely deployed on campuses throughout the English-speaking world as part of a sustained campaign to impose ideological conformity in the name of diversity. As a result, it often feels as if there is less free speech and free thought in the American university today than in almost any other institution in the U.S. To the historian’s eyes, there is something unpleasantly familiar about the patterns of behavior that have, in a matter of a few years, become normal on many campuses. The chanting of slogans. The brandishing of placards. The letters informing on colleagues and classmates. The denunciations of professors to the authorities. The lack of due process. The cancelations. The rehabilitations following abject confessions. The officiousness of unaccountable bureaucrats. Any student of the totalitarian regimes of the mid-20th century recognizes all this with astonishment. It turns out that it can happen in a free society, too, if institutions and individuals who claim to be liberal choose to behave in an entirely illiberal fashion.  How to explain this rapid descent of academia from a culture of free inquiry and debate into a kind of Totalitarianism Lite? In their book “The Coddling of the American Mind,” the social psychiatrist Jonathan Haidt and FIRE president Greg Lukianoff lay much of the blame on a culture of parenting and early education that encourages students to believe that “what doesn’t kill you makes you weaker,” that you should “always trust your feelings,” and that “life is a battle between good people and evil people.” However, I believe the core problems are the pathological structures and perverse incentives of the modern university. It is not the case, as many Americans believe, that U.S. colleges have always been left-leaning and that today’s are no different from those of the 1960s. As Stanley Rothman, Robert Lichter and Neil Nevitte showed in a 2005 study, while 39% of the professoriate on average described themselves as left-wing in 1984, the proportion had risen to 72% by 1999, by which time being a conservative had become a measurable career handicap. Mitchell Langbert’s analysis of tenure-track, Ph.D.-holding professors from 51 of the 66 top-ranked liberal arts colleges in 2017 found that those with known political affiliations were overwhelmingly Democratic. Nearly two-fifths of the colleges in Langbert’s sample were Republican-free. The mean Democratic-to-Republican ratio across the sample was 10.4:1, or 12.7:1 if the two military academies, West Point and Annapolis, were excluded. For history departments, the ratio was 17.4:1; for English 48.3:1. No ratio is calculable for anthropology, as the number of Republican professors was zero. In 2020, Langbert and Sean Stevens  found an even bigger skew to the left when they considered political donations to parties by professors. The ratio of dollars contributed to Democratic versus Republican candidates and committees was 21:1. Commentators who argue that the pendulum will magically swing back betray a lack of understanding about the academic hiring and promotion process. With political discrimination against conservatives now overt, most departments are likely to move further to the left over time as the last remaining conservatives retire. Yet the leftward march of the professoriate is only one of the structural flaws that characterize today’s university. If you think the faculty are politically skewed, take a look at academic administrators. A shocking insight into the way some activist-administrators seek to bully students into ideological conformity was provided by Trent Colbert, a Yale Law School student who invited his fellow members of the Native American Law Students Association to “a Constitution Day bash” at the “NALSA Trap House,” a term that used to mean a crack den but now is just a mildly risque way of describing a party. Diversity director Yaseen Eldik’s thinly veiled threats to Colbert if he didn’t sign a groveling apology — “I worry about this leaning over your reputation as a person, not just here but when you leave” — were too much even for an editorial board member at the Washington Post. Democracy may die in darkness; academic freedom dies in wokeness. Moreover, the sheer number of the administrators is a problem in itself. In 1970, U.S. colleges employed more professors than administrators. Between then and 2010, however, the number of full-time professors or “full-time equivalents” increased by slightly more than 50%, in line with student enrollments. The number of administrators and administrative staffers rose by 85% and 240%, respectively. The ever-growing army of coordinators for Title IX — the federal law prohibiting sex-based discrimination — is one manifestation of the bureaucratic bloat, which since the 1990s has helped propel tuition costs far ahead of inflation. The third structural problem is weak leadership. Time and again — most recently at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where a lecture by the University of Chicago geophysicist Dorian Abbot was abruptly canceled because he had been critical of affirmative action — academic leaders have yielded to noisy mobs baying for disinvitations. There are notable exceptions, such as Robert Zimmer, who as president of the University of Chicago between 2006 and 2021 made a stand for academic freedom. But the number of other colleges to have adopted the Chicago statement, a pledge crafted by the school’s Committee on Freedom of Expression, remains just 55, out of nearly 2,500 institutions offering four-year undergraduate programs. Finally, there is the problem of the donors — most but not all alumni — and trustees, many of whom have been astonishingly oblivious of the problems described above. In 2019, donors gave nearly $50 billion to colleges. Eight donors gave $100 million or more. People generally do not make that kind of money without being hard-nosed in their business dealings. Yet the capitalist class appears strangely unaware of the anticapitalist uses to which its money is often put. A phenomenon I find deeply puzzling is the lack of due diligence associated with much academic philanthropy, despite numerous cases when the intentions of benefactors have deliberately been subverted. All this would be bad enough if it meant only that U.S. universities are no longer conducive to free inquiry and promotion based on merit, without which scientific advances are certain to be impeded and educational standards to fall. But academic illiberalism is not confined to college campuses. As students collect their degrees and enter the workforce, they inevitably carry some of what they have learned at college with them. Multiple manifestations of “woke” thinking and behavior at newspapers, publishing houses, technology companies and other corporations have confirmed Andrew Sullivan’s 2018 observation, “We all live on campus now.” When a problem becomes this widespread, the traditional American solution is to create new institutions. As we have seen, universities are relatively long-lived compared to companies and even nations. But not all great universities are ancient. Of today’s top 25 universities, according to the global rankings compiled by the London Times Higher Education Supplement, four were founded in the 20th century. Fully 14 were 19th-century foundations; four date back to the 18th century. Only Oxford (which can trace its origins to 1096) and Cambridge (1209) are medieval in origin.  As might be inferred from the large number (10) of today’s leading institutions founded in the U.S. between 1855 and 1900, new universities tend to be established when wealthy elites grow impatient with the existing ones and see no way of reforming them. The puzzle is why, despite the resurgence of inequality in the U.S. since the 1990s and the more or less simultaneous decline in standards at the existing universities, so few new ones have been created. Only a handful have been set up this century: University of California Merced (2005), Ave Maria University (2003) and Soka University of America (2001). Just five U.S. colleges founded in the past 50 years make it into the Times’s top 25 “Young Universities”: University of Alabama at Birmingham (founded 1969), University of Texas at Dallas (1969), George Mason (1957), University of Texas at San Antonio (1969) and Florida International (1969). Each is (or originated as) part of a state university system. In short, the beneficiaries of today’s gilded age seem altogether more tolerant of academic degeneration than their 19th-century predecessors. For whatever reason, many prefer to give their money to established universities, no matter how antithetical those institutions’ values have become to their own. This makes no sense, even if the principal motivation is to buy Ivy League spots for their offspring. Why would you pay to have your children indoctrinated with ideas you despise? So what should the university of the future look like? Clearly, there is no point in simply copying and pasting Harvard, Yale or Princeton and expecting a different outcome. Even if such an approach were affordable, it would be the wrong one. To begin with, a new institution can’t compete with the established brands when it comes to undergraduate programs. Young Americans and their counterparts elsewhere go to college as much for the high-prestige credentials and the peer networks as for the education. That’s why a new university can’t start by offering bachelors’ degrees. The University of Austin will therefore begin modestly, with a summer school offering “Forbidden Courses” — the kind of content and instruction no longer available at most established campuses, addressing the kind of provocative questions that often lead to cancelation or self-censorship. The next step will be a one-year master’s program in Entrepreneurship and Leadership. The primary purpose of conventional business programs is to credential large cohorts of passive learners with a lowest-common-denominator curriculum. The University of Austin’s program will aim to teach students classical principles of the market economy and then embed them in a network of successful technologists, entrepreneurs, venture capitalists and public-policy reformers. It will offer an introduction to the world of American technology similar to the introduction to the Chinese economy offered by the highly successful Schwarzman Scholars program, combining both academic pedagogy and practical experience. Later, there will be parallel programs in Politics and Applied History and in Education and Public Service. Only after these initial programs have been set up will we start offering a four-year liberal arts degree.  The first two years of study will consist of an intensive liberal arts curriculum, including the study of philosophy, literature, history, politics, economics, mathematics, the sciences and the fine arts. There will be Oxbridge-style instruction, with small tutorials and college-wide lectures, providing an in-depth and personalized learning experience with interdisciplinary breadth.   After two years of a comprehensive and rigorous liberal arts education, undergraduates will join one of four academic centers as junior fellows, pursuing disciplinary coursework, conducting hands-on research and gaining experience as interns. The initial centers will include one for entrepreneurship and leadership, one for politics and applied history, one for education and public service, and one for technology, engineering and mathematics. To those who argue that we could more easily do all this with some kind of internet platform, I would say that online learning is no substitute for learning on a campus, for reasons rooted in evolutionary psychology. We simply learn much better in relatively small groups in real time and space, not least because a good deal of what students learn in a well-functioning university comes from their informal discussions in the absence of professors. This explains the persistence of the university over a millennium, despite successive revolutions in information technology. To those who wonder how a new institution can avoid being captured by the illiberal-liberal establishment that now dominates higher education, I would answer that the governance structure of the institution will be designed to prevent that. The Chicago principles of freedom of expression will be enshrined in the founding charter. The founders will form a corporation or board of trustees that will be sovereign. Not only will the corporation appoint the president of the college; it will also have a final say over all appointments or promotions. There will be one unusual obligation on faculty members, besides the standard ones to teach and carry out research: to conduct the admissions process by means of an examination that they will set and grade. Admission will be based primarily on performance on the exam. That will avoid the corrupt rackets run by so many elite admissions offices today. As for our choice of location in the Texas capital, I would say that proximity to a highly regarded public university — albeit one where even the idea of establishing an institute to study liberty is now controversial — will ensure that the University of Austin has to compete at the highest level from the outset. My fellow founders and I have no illusions about the difficulty of the task ahead. We fully expect condemnation from the educational establishment and its media apologists. We shall regard all such attacks as vindication — the flak will be a sign that we are above the target. In our minds, there can be no more urgent task for a society than to ensure the health of its system of higher education. The American system today is broken in ways that pose a profound threat to the future strength and stability of the U.S. It is time to start fixing it. But the opportunity to do so in the classic American way — by creating something new, actually building rather than “building back” — is an inspiring and exciting one. To quote Haidt and Lukianoff: “A school that makes freedom of inquiry an essential part of its identity, selects students who show special promise as seekers of truth, orients and prepares those students for productive disagreement … would be inspiring to join, a joy to attend, and a blessing to society.” That is not the kind of institution satirized in “The Chair.” It is precisely the kind of institution we need today. *  *  * Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He was previously a professor of history at Harvard, New York University and Oxford. He is the founder and managing director of Greenmantle LLC, a New York-based advisory firm. His latest book is "Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe." Tyler Durden Wed, 11/10/2021 - 22:05.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytNov 10th, 2021

Santas are in short supply because of the labor shortage and fears among older men of catching COVID-19

Santa bookers say there are 15% fewer people willing to dress up as the character this Christmas, which is likely to leave many families disappointed. Santas are especially cautious of close contact with young children, many of whom are not yet vaccinated. Getty Images There is a shortage of Santas across the US, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The main demographic of older and heavier-set men are opting out of the job over COVID-19 concerns. One customer said she is "willing to pay anything" to secure a Santa for a holiday event. A tight labor market in the US has created a shortage of Santas because older men are opting out of the job, due to the risks of COVID-19 exposure, The Wall Street Journal reported. Like other years, families across the country are keen to get into the festive spirit by nailing down an appointment at Santa's grotto.But unlike other years, Santas are in short supply. Workers who typically fit the Santa category - older and heavier-set men - are not willing to risk their exposure to COVID-19 making it harder to find qualified candidates, according to The Journal.Mitch Allen, Head Elf at staffing agency Hire Santa told the outlet that Santas are especially cautious of close contact with young children, many of whom are not yet vaccinated. And only around half of Santa events offer some form of social distancing, per The Journal. Bookers, who say Santas are in higher demand this year, are struggling with the shortage.According to Allen, there has been a 121% increase in requests this holiday season compared with last year but there are 15% fewer professional Santas available. Susen Mesco told The Journal that never in her 39 years in the Santa industry has she had to turn customers away. "I had one lady call me up two days ago in tears. She needed a Santa for her country club," she said. Mesco said the customer told her: "I'm willing to pay anything."Christina Casella, chief development officer for San Antonio Youth, a nonprofit, said she needed a dozen Santas for appearances at several sites across the city. She put a call out for volunteers on social media but had not found anyone to fill the roles. "God forbid we need to get somebody on our staff in a Santa costume, we will do that," she told The Journal, as part of her backup plan. Companies across many sectors - including trucking, veterinary services, and hospitality - have faced the crippling effects of a labor shortage. In September, a Dunkin' coffee shop in Colorado temporarily closed after the number of staff fell from 15 to three.Recently, the owner of a childcare company said she had to slash its hours because of understaffing problems. She subsequently plans to shut down the business over the next year, Insider's Grace Dean reported. At the same time, some companies are using "gratitude robots" to thank their overworked employees during the labor crunch. The robots pick up pens and write thank-you notes and holiday cards with custom messages. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 10th, 2021

How evolutionary science can predict which family businesses will be successful

Family businesses can be seriously impacted by intergenerational differences, family harmony, and the number of maternal relatives. In the US, family businesses account for over 50% of GDP. Peathegee Inc/Getty Images Family businesses often have trouble transitioning from one generation of owners to the next. Researchers say greater harmony between family members can predict a more successful business. They also say businesses with a greater proportion of maternal relatives will have less conflict. There has long been disagreement regarding whether family businesses have advantages over non-family businesses. While some have argued that family businesses have an edge over other types of businesses - from their financial performance to their environmental friendliness to the level of trust placed in them by customers - others have posited that family businesses face substantial challenges not faced by other firms, such as difficulty transitioning from one generation of owners to the next.This disagreement is part of a broader debate regarding what distinguishes family and nonfamily businesses. One prominent theory holds that leaders of family businesses are simply driven by a set of motivations that are loftier than the bottom line."A common view among scholars is that family members in family businesses really care about each other, and they're looking out for their long-term collective interests - both financial and nonfinancial," said Krishnan Nair, a postdoctoral fellow with the John L. Ward Center for Family Enterprises at Kellogg. "This is said to have downstream consequences for, say, risk-taking and acquisition behavior, and helps explain the lower likelihood of engaging in aggressive tax avoidance or being a big polluter."In Nair's mind, this explanation has always seemed partial, at best. After all, it's also widely acknowledged that family businesses have high failure rates, especially as they attempt to transition from one generation of owners to the next. One of the key reasons for these failures, Nair said, is the pervasiveness of conflicts between family members - the exact opposite of the positive familial feelings and united commitment to their enterprise that many believe help these businesses."I was curious what might explain the fact that, on the one hand, family businesses can be very harmonious and characterized by common interest," Nair said, "but on the other hand, they can be very dysfunctional and plagued by conflict."Isolating these distinguishing factors could help predict which of these paths a family business is likely to take. And these family-business dynamics are important to understand, in no small part because of their prevalence in the global economy. In the US alone, family businesses account for over 50% of GDP."This matters quite a lot because of how much of an influence these businesses have on the economy," Nair said. "If family businesses are being plagued by conflict, this would have consequences beyond the performance of individual businesses."To better understand the likely differences in family dynamics within and across generations, along with the consequences of these dynamics for family-business outcomes, Nair teamed up with Edward Zajac, professor of management and organizations at Kellogg. In a new paper, they tackle the question in a novel way: by applying insights from the evolutionary sciences, a field that has long examined how the process of evolution has shaped human psychology and behavior."While it has been often observed that family businesses face particular intergenerational challenges, these challenges have typically been described in terms of cultural or personality differences," Zajac explained. "There has been surprisingly little attention to the evolutionary factors that we believe can contribute to the explanation of these challenges."Connecting evolutionary science and case studiesNair and Zajac studied how the factors surrounding family harmony and conflict tend to change over generations.In the first generation, the main family relationships tend to be between the founder and their children. In the second generation, which the researchers call the sibling-partnership stage, relationships among siblings, their spouses, and their children take center stage. And in the third generation and beyond - the "cousin consortium" - the dominant relationships are among cousins, uncles and aunts, and grandparents."The family relationships that matter the most in terms of influencing the family business change from generation to generation," Nair explained. "These prototypical family transitions mean that different insights are going to apply from the evolutionary space at different times."The researchers studied the evolutionary literature to glean the most applicable insights based on the primary relationships at each stage of the business. Based on this review, they drafted propositions that posit expectations for relational dynamics within family businesses. These broad predictions are meant to be empirically tested in later studies by researchers who have the data to do so.The researchers then compared the findings from the evolutionary literature with case studies focused on family businesses to gauge the extent to which observed dynamics within businesses tended to align with insights from the evolutionary literature. They were heartened to see how often they did, in fact, align.The propositions share two central premises: that humans tend to behave more altruistically toward the relatives with whom they share the greatest genetic overlap, and that we behave more altruistically with our maternal relatives than those on the paternal side.These premises overlap in their logic. Evolutionary psychology holds that the mother - child relationship is the most altruistic one in humanity, given the certainty of extensive genetic overlap. It also suggests that the father - child relationship tends to be less altruistic, because there can be less certainty in the genetic overlap between fathers and their children. Similar uncertainty can also creep in when it comes to the genetic relatedness between siblings.Based on these findings, the researchers propose that in the first generation of a firm, strong physical resemblance between the founder and their children, which increases expectations of genetic relatedness, tends to lead to greater family harmony, and that harmony is also bolstered when there is a matriarch involved who has influence over the patriarch.In the second-generation sibling-partnership stage, the researchers similarly predict that greater physical resemblance between siblings is likely to accompany greater family harmony. They add that maternal half-siblings are likely to experience more harmonious business interactions than paternal half-siblings in a sibling partnership.When it comes to third-generation cousin consortiums, Zajac and Nair predict that the greater the proportion is of those with maternal family ties relative to paternal family ties (such as maternal cousins versus paternal cousins) among those working together, the greater the family harmony is likely to be - though they acknowledge that this effect probably weakens in more patriarchal cultures.Tendencies to keep in mind Nair stresses that his propositions describe general tendencies and are not meant to be prescriptive or deterministic. Still, he believes it's important that more family-business leaders develop an understanding of the patterns he highlights."If you're a patriarch or a matriarch of a family business, you want to keep in mind the potential causes of conflict that can occur in the future," he said. "This is important from the perspective of family-business owners who want their businesses to last for a long time."For example, he says that while most family businesses - even in highly egalitarian countries - are more likely to be passed down to male heirs, those that are handed down to female heirs may claim an evolutionary advantage, since it could mean that the children and cousins later conscripted into the business would feel closer and thus work together better. The researchers also underscore that even in businesses led by a patriarch, involvement of the matriarch remains important in maintaining familial and professional harmony.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 9th, 2021

Why business owners are turning to "gratitude robots" to show their appreciation for employees during the labor shortage

Some companies are using robots to write gratitude letters for their hardworking staff as it allows them to save time and scale their outreach. A Handwrytten robot pictured. Handwrytten Companies are hiring robots to write thank-you letters to their hardworking employees. The idea is to show appreciation to workers amid labor shortages and pandemic pressures. Gift cards are also increasingly being sent in place of other items, to avoid supply chain issues. An ongoing labor shortage plaguing the US has meant existing employees are under strain as a result.Accordingly, business owners are making an extra effort to thank their employees by sending them robot-written thank-you notes. The machines, described as "gratitude robots," are created by Handwrytten, an online handwritten notes company located in Phoenix, Arizona. The robots pick up pens and write thank-you notes and holiday cards with custom messages.Handwrytten has 130 robots to meet demand and has sent more than 3.5 million notes. The company was founded in 2014 by CEO David Wachs.Each robot features a mechanical arm that holds a Pilot G2 ballpoint pen. The robot operators send vector files to the robots, which include the handwriting design. "We have companies of all sizes using us to send their notes of thanks and gratitude," Wachs told Insider. He added that while most of his customers typically use the service to send notes to clients, there is an increasing trend of customers sending notes of gratitude to their employees. They "often [send them] along with gift cards, thanking them for their hard work during these difficult times," Wachs added. Wachs recalled one nutraceutical brand that put together gift boxes for employees during the pandemic and had the robots write them 500 notes to include inside. "Each note was signed by the CEO and thanking them for their hard work and sticking with the company during the pandemic," he said. More companies are opting to use the service, as opposed to writing the letters themselves, as it allows them to save time and scale their outreach. On the company website, one customer wrote: "I always want to send thank you cards, but I typically don't get around to it." The robots can also mimic clients' handwriting styles, taking into account character variation, ligature combinations, line spacing variation, and left margin variation for an authentic look. With the holiday season fast approaching, Wachs said he is seeing more clients opt to include gift cards, along with the letters to send to their employees too. This is specifically due to an ongoing supply chain crisis, which is making sending gifts much harder, due to low inventory and weeks-long delays to receive items. As early as August, UPS President Scott Price joked that consumers should "order your Christmas presents now because otherwise on Christmas day, there may just be a picture of something that's not coming until February or March," Insider's Áine Cain and Grace Kay reported."By opting for gift cards, the risks of gifts being unavailable is mitigated," Wachs said. Last month, Wachs said the company created more than 400,000 pieces for clients, and this month they expect that number to be even higher. According to Wachs, employees who receive the robot-written letters appear to be very appreciative of them. "We do see clients return to us for this very purpose, so we assume it is an effective tool," he said. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytNov 7th, 2021

Futures Melt Up To New Record High Ahead Of Payrolls

Futures Melt Up To New Record High Ahead Of Payrolls US index futures continued their relentless meltup on the last day of the week, before today's jobs report which is expected to bounce strongly from last month's disappointing print (exp. 450K, up from 194K), and could set the pace for the Fed's taper into 2022 if it is too much of an outlier in either direction. At 730am, e-mini S&P futures were up 8.25 or 0.18% to 4,681.5, a new all time high; Nasdaq futures rose 48 points or 0.29% and Dow futures were up 35 or 0.1%. 10Y yields were flat at 1.53% and the dollar index jumped, while Brent traded just above $80 after yesterday's rout. “Investors took comfort from the Federal Reserve’s slow and steady approach when announcing the time-line for its taper program,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in London. “Today’s payrolls report should confirm that the U.S. labor market is still improving.” After one of the busiest earnings days this season, it has been a furious session with Expedia to News jumping in premarket trading on better-than-expected results.  Airbnb jumped 7.7% after the travel website reported record sales and earnings that exceeded analyst estimates. Meanwhile, Peloton crashed 33% after the fitness company cut its annual revenue forecast by as much as $1 billion because of declining demand in the post-pandemic economy.  Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Peloton (PTON US) shares tanked 32% in U.S. premarket trading after analysts said its results and reduced guidance implied weaker demand than expected, and that the home-fitness company’s business model may need a rethink Square (SQ US) shares drop 4.5% in U.S. premarket trading after its 3Q results fell short of the consensus estimate, but its outlook remains strong, analysts say. The weakness in its Cash App and Bitcoin revenue could have been predicted, they added. Airbnb (ABNB US) shares rose 8% in U.S. premarket after the vacation-rental giant reported record sales and earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. RBC and Barclays hiked their price targets, citing improving earnings and supply-demand dynamics in 2022 NRX Pharmaceuticals (NRXP US) and Relief Therapeutics (RLF SW), which are partners on a drug to treat Covid-19, tumbled after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration declined to issue an emergency use authorization for the medication. GoPro (GPRO US) shares soar 17.2% premarket Tuesday after the maker of mountable and wearable cameras reported third-quarter results that exceeded analyst estimates Expedia (EXPE US) shares rally in premarket trading, as the online travel agency reports third-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings that beat expectations. The company’s CEO also gave positive commentary about a recovery in the travel industry Novavax (NVAX US) climbs as much as 6% after the biotech company said it filed with the World Health Organization for emergency use listing for its Covid vaccine Pinterest (PINS US) rises 5% in premarket trading after the company reported stronger-than-expected profit and revenue that met analysts’ estimates Microchip (MCHP US) gains 2.5% in premarket trading after projecting revenue and adjusted EPS that exceeded the average analyst estimates Ontrak (OTRK US) jumped 24% postmarket after the tele-health company boosted its full-year guidance Grid Dynamics (GDYN US) jumped 18% in postmarket trading after the information-technology services company forecasts full-year revenue that beat the average analyst estimate Pfizer (PFE) surged more than 10% after the company announced it would seek approval for a new covid pill after strong trial data. Looking ahead now, we’ll cap off a very busy macro week today with the US jobs report for October As previewed earlier, consensus expects +450k increase in nonfarm payrolls, which in turn would send the unemployment rate down a tenth to a post-pandemic low of 4.7%. The last couple of jobs reports have seen some downside surprises, but if realized, that +450k number would be the strongest jobs growth in 3 months. We’ve had some fairly positive labor market data in advance of the jobs report too, with the ADP’s report of private payrolls exceeding expectations on Wednesday at 571k (vs. 400k expected), and yesterday the weekly initial jobless claims for the week through October 30 fell to a fresh post-pandemic low of 269k (vs. 275k expected). The Fed made it clear this week that labor market evolution after the delta variant will be a key determinant in the future path of monetary policy. In any case, risk euphoria was strong with Europe as well, where stocks scaled another record peak as consumer and tech companies led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 0.2% to an all-time high poised for the longest winning streak since mid-June. FTSE MIB and FTSE 100 outperformed at the margin. Technology stocks outperformed, while energy and travel and leisure stocks declined. Among the biggest movers, Allegro.eu SA soared 7.8% after Poland’s largest e-commerce bought a Czech peer in a $1 billion deal. Euronext NV fell 4.4% after the exchange operator’s third-quarter results undershot expectations. However, most travel stocks dropped as a fourth wave of the pandemic hits the continent, with Germany reporting record infections. European stocks extended October’s recovery to return to their all-time highs, as investors scooped up the region’s stocks thanks to a reassuring earnings season and as central banks signal they are in no hurry to raise interest rates just yet. “We’ve seen a fairly benign reaction to the earnings season, in some respects. Perhaps people were a little bit nervous going into it,” Alastair George, chief investment strategist at Edison Group, said by phone. “The market troughed in the early part of October and has bounced back since then, and if we look at earnings revisions, they’re not as robust as they were earlier on in the Covid recovery cycle, but we’re not seeing downgrades,” George added. Asian equities fell, as a slide in bond yields globally and a decline in Hong Kong-listed tech shares weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 0.5%, led lower by consumer discretionary and utility shares. Alibaba and Tencent were the biggest drags with analysts accessing earnings outlooks ahead of the companies’ quarterly results announcements. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.6%, while the benchmark Hang Seng Index dropped 1.4%. Traders are now awaiting the U.S. jobs report later Friday for further cues on monetary policy tightening. “Markets will be seeking confirmation on whether the job market recovery warrants a mid to late-2022 lift-off in rates as reflected in the Fed funds futures,” Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG Asia, wrote in a note. The Asian stock benchmark is set for a weekly rise of less than 1% as the earnings season progresses. Supply-chain constraints and inflation worries are being cited as concerns by many of the largest companies in the region, with several seeing their shares tumble as the chip shortage prompts them to slash their annual profit forecasts. India’s stock market was closed for a holiday Friday. Japanese stocks fell as the yen held its strength against the dollar and investors assessed the potential supply response from the U.S. to a gradual hike in production from OPEC+. The Topix index dropped 0.7% to close at 2,041.42 in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 0.6% to 29,611.57. Toyota Motor contributed the most to the Topix’s loss, decreasing 1.4%. Out of 2,181 shares in the index, 540 rose and 1,589 fell, while 52 were unchanged. Japan’s currency was little changed at 113.64 yen per dollar, after gaining 0.2% on Thursday Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.4% to 7,456.90, its highest close since Sept. 16. The benchmark gained 1.8% for the week.  Eight of the 11 subgauges finished Friday trade higher, with miners and healthcare stocks driving the gains.  The Reserve Bank of Australia struck an upbeat note on the economy, while maintaining that faster wages growth and inflation will take some time and the first interest-rate increase is unlikely before 2024. Administration soared after receiving a conditional, non-binding indicative takeover proposal from investment fund Carlyle Asia Partners V. Clinuvel tumbled after it was cut to hold at Jefferies.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 1% to 13,074.61. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reached its strongest level in more than three weeks as the greenback was steady or higher versus all of its Group-of-10 peers. The euro traded near its cycle lows following strong U.S. data and renewed dovish commentary by European Central Bank officials and options now paint a similar outlook. The slowdown in inflation next year may not be as intense and quick as the European Central Bank had anticipated a few months ago, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos says. The pound fell against all its Group-of-10 peers and gilts rallied, sending yields down by as many as 5 basis points. Money markets no longer fully price the Bank of England raising its key rate to 1% in Dec. 2022, pushing bets out to Feb. 2023. Labor market data is an important piece of the jigsaw for the BOE, Governor Andrew Bailey says in an interview with BBC Radio 4. Australia’s 10-year bonds had their first weekly gain in more than two months after the BOE joined the RBA and the Fed in pushing back against aggressive rate-hike bets; the Aussie and Kiwi weakened. The yen rose as traders unwound bearish bets on the currency before the release of key U.S. jobs data and repricing of the outlook for policy tightening. In rates, the 10Y yield was unchanged at 1.53%. Gilts extend Thursday’s post-BO shockE rally, richening ~5bps across the curve in a modest flattening move. Short sterling futures add 2.5-3 ticks in red and green packs as expectations for higher rates are pared back. MPC-dated OIS rates factor in only 11bps of hike by the December meeting and no longer fully price the Bank’s rate at 1% by end-2022. Bunds follow, cash USTs drift ahead of today’s payrolls release. In commodities, crude futures hold a narrow range after OPEC+ rebuffed U.S. demands for accelerated output.with WTI trading just below $80. Spot gold drifts higher, briefly testing $1,800/oz. Base metals are mixed: LME lead and tin rally, zinc drops over 1.5% with canceled warrants hitting the highest since August To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the aforementioned US jobs report, but European data will also include September figures on Euro Area retail sales and German and French industrial production. Central bank speakers will include the ECB’s Vice President de Guindos, as well as the ECB’s Holzmann, Centeno and Panetta, in addition to the BoE’s Ramsden, Pill and Tenreyro. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,674.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 483.89 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.24% Euro little changed at $1.1558 MXAP down 0.4% to 198.36 MXAPJ down 0.3% to 645.66 Nikkei down 0.6% to 29,611.57 Topix down 0.7% to 2,041.42 Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 24,870.51 Shanghai Composite down 1.0% to 3,491.57 Sensex up 0.5% to 60,067.62 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,456.94 Kospi down 0.5% to 2,969.27 Brent Futures up 0.8% to $81.22/bbl Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,798.55 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.35 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Germany reported record Covid-19 infections for a second straight day, as a fourth wave of the pandemic hits Europe and threatens to overwhelm hospitals in some hot spots The increasingly influential expectations gap between bond traders and central bankers faces a fresh test Friday -- U.S. jobs data that could reignite or damp out the inflation concerns policy makers tried to downplay this week A shortage of homes for sale and a buoyant labor market are expected to underpin the U.K. housing market as consumers come under pressure from soaring inflation and higher interest rates, according to Halifax A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded cautiously following a somewhat mixed handover from the US where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq extended on fresh record highs with outperformance in rate-sensitive stocks alongside the rally in global bonds. However, the DJIA lagged but with only marginal losses as attention shifted to the upcoming NFP jobs data, while Chinese developer default concerns provided headwinds in Asia after reports Kaisa Group missed a payment on its wealth management product. ASX 200 (+0.4%) was underpinned by strength in the mining-related sectors as gold producers benefitted from the recent advances in the precious metal which approached just shy of the USD 1800/oz level and with sentiment also helped by the continued dovish tone by the RBA in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, although advances were capped amid losses in tech and with energy names suffering due to lower oil prices. Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) weakness was a function of recent adverse currency flows but with downside stemmed as participants digest a slew of earnings releases and reports the government is considering cash handouts of JPY 100k to under-18s. Hang Seng (-1.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.0%) were both subdued with Hong Kong pressured by losses in the blue chip financial, tech and energy stocks and with property names also constrained by the missed Kaisa Group payment which the Shenzhen-based developer plans to repay in instalments. It was also reported that China told certain smaller banks to limit wealth products, although the losses in the mainland were cushioned after the PBoC upped its liquidity effort despite still resulting in a net daily drain. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher following on from the gains in global counterparts which were spurred by the surprise BoE hold on rates and with the weakness in Japanese stocks also helping keep bond prices afloat, with price action also unfazed by the lack of purchases from the BoJ which were instead seeking to buy corporate bonds with 1yr-3yr maturities for Nov. 10th. Top Asian News Japan Eases Many Covid-Era Border Restrictions as Cases Slump Developer in China Misses Payment on Loan Backed by Fantasia World’s Largest Pension Fund GPIF Posts $17 Billion Gain HSBC Requests All of Its Hong Kong Staff to Get Vaccinated European equities broadly trade on a marginally firmer footing (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%; Stoxx 600 +0.2%) with the Stoxx 600 set to close the week out with gains of around 1.6%. Macro commentary for the session has been relatively light thus far in the wake of yesterday’s BoE surprise. The handover from the APAC session was predominantly a negative one with Hang Seng (-1.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1%) both subdued as stocks in Hong Kong were pressured by losses in the blue-chip financial, tech and energy stocks and with property names also constrained by the missed Kaisa Group payment which the Shenzhen-based developer plans to repay in instalments. Stateside, futures have been inching higher ahead of the latest US jobs report with consensus looking for a 450k addition in nonfarm payrolls. Events in Washington are also worth keeping an eye on after CNN’s Raju reported yesterday that House Dems see Friday as the day they can finish the rule, USD 1.75tln Build Back Better bill and infrastructure bill. The Infrastructure bill would then go to Biden’s desk and the USD 1.75tln bill would go to the Senate for further negotiation with Manchin and other Senate Dems. Back to Europe, sectors are relatively mixed with Telecom names outperforming amid gains in BT (+1.8%) who sit at the top of the FTSE 100 as speculation continues to rumble on that billionaire investor Patrick Drahi could make a move for the Co. Deutsche Telekom is also providing support for the sector after confirming that IFM is to buy 50% in Co's Glasfaserplys GmbH for EUR 900mln. To the downside, Travel & Leisure names lag as opening gains for IAG (-2.1%) proved to be fleeting with the Co. warning of a potential EUR 3bln FY loss alongside Q3 earnings. Elsewhere, Oil & Gas names are trading lower alongside losses in the crude complex, with Basic Resources also near the foot of the leaderboard. Top European News Adler Pressure Builds With Idle Cranes and Angry Berlin Buyers Axa Jumps to More Than 3-Year High After Share Buyback Plan Europe Gas Prices Rebound as Traders Eye Russia’s Next Move ECB’s Guindos Says Inflation Will Slow in 2022 ‘Without a Doubt’ In FX, the Dollar index has gained some traction and has broken out of the 94.273-417 APAC range in the run-up to the US labour market report – with the headline NFP print forecast at 450k (full preview available in the Newsquawk Research Suite), although anything short of an extreme jobs reports this month will likely not sway the Fed's dials following the taper announcement earlier this week - which will commence later this month. On the fiscal front, the US House is to meet at 12:00GMT/08:00EDT to debate the procedural rule to put the social spending bill on the floor. Democrats hope to debate and vote on the social spending and infrastructure bills today, according to Fox. From a technical perspective, DXY eyes yesterday 94.475 high ahead of the YTD peak at 94.563. GBP, EUR - Sterling is the marked laggard thus far in what is seemingly a hangover on the day after the BoE coupled with Brexit risk, as the UK and EU's Brexit negotiators are set to meet in a bid to temper down cross-channel frictions. Governor Bailey made an appearance on UK radio this morning but failed to provide much in the way of additional colour regarding yesterday's policy decision – with markets currently assigning a 2/3 chance of a 15bps hike in December. On that note, BoE's new Chief Economist Pill, alongside MPC members Tenreyro and Ramsden, are all slated to speak throughout the session. Over to Brexit developments, RTE's Connelly recently reported that there is a "growing expectation" that the UK will trigger Article 16 - suggesting that "the view is that the EU's response could be much swifter and more 'radical' than expected.", although a special meeting of the bloc's leaders will likely be needed before any move. From a technical standpoint, EUR/GBP breached overnight resistance at 0.8565 before briefly topping the 200 DMA at 0.8584. In turn, GBP/USD declined from its 1.3508 high to a base sub-1.3450, with some traders suggesting the pair ran into sellers just ahead of a Fib level at 1.3511. EUR is supported by the EUR/GBP cross, with EUR/USD relatively flat on the day and still above yesterday's 1.1527 low. EUR/USD also looks ahead to some OpEx – with EUR 1.4bln between 1.5555-60 alongside some EUR 725mln at strike 1.1575. AUD, NZD, CAD - The high-beta non-US dollars all post modest intraday losses. The Aussie sits at the bottom of this bunch after the RBA's SoMP overnight reiterated a patient approach, with headwinds also felt by a decline in iron ore prices overnight whilst copper trades lacklustre. NZD is softer in sympathy whilst the Loonie bears the brunt of lower post-OPEC crude prices. AUD/USD has declined from a 0.7408 peak and dips under its 200 DMA (0.7379) ahead of the 50 DMA (0.7364). NZD/USD meanwhile loses ground under the 0.7100 mark – which also coincides with its 21 and 200 DMAs. USD/CAD eyes its 200 DMA at 1.2479 from a 1.2450 base in the run-up to the Canadian jobs report – with the pair also cognizant of USD 1.3bln in OpEx between 1.2500-05. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures consolidate following yesterday's post-OPEC+ declines and heading into today's main event – the US labour market report. To recap the OPEC+ confab, ministers opted to continue the current plan to hike monthly output by 400k BPD (despite calls from the US to up output by 600-800k BPD), whilst reports also suggested that there will be no compensation for the underproduction seen from some nations. Traders are now on the lookout for a US response, with Washington yesterday reiterating the use of tools against oil prices. As a reminder, US Energy Secretary Granholm in an FT interview in October raised the prospect of an SPR release, whilst also refusing to rule out a ban on oil crude oil exports, suggesting “it is also a tool”. From the demand side, China’s economic slowdown has prompted JPM to downgrade the nation’s GDP growth forecast by 1ppt to 4.0%, citing the lingering impact of the power crunch and resurgence in COVID. It’s also worth noting that next week will see the Chinese inflation metrics, with oil prices expected to contribute to another Y/Y rise in PPI. WTI Dec trades just under USD 80/bbl (vs 78.96/bbl low) whilst Brent Jan trades on either side of USD 81/bbl (vs low 80.26/bbl). Turning to metals, spot gold and silver are uninteresting heading into the US jobs report whilst LME copper remains under USD 9,500/t. Overnight, Dalian iron ore futures fell once again to log a fourth consecutive week of losses amid China’s crackdown on the raw material. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Oct. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 450,000, prior 194,000 Change in Private Payrolls, est. 420,000, prior 317,000 Unemployment Rate, est. 4.7%, prior 4.8% Underemployment Rate, prior 8.5% Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 61.7%, prior 61.6% Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.9%, prior 4.6% Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6% Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.8, prior 34.8 3pm: Sept. Consumer Credit, est. $16b, prior $14.4b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Markets had another buoyant session yesterday as they received a dovish surprise from the Bank of England, just as they were digesting the Fed’s tapering decision from the previous evening. In response, markets shifted gear and pushed back pricing of future rate hikes, which in turn led to a sharp rally across the curve in sovereign bond markets in every major economy. And with investors lowering the odds of a near-term removal in monetary policy support, that helped equities take another leg higher, with the S&P 500 (+0.42%) advancing for the 15th time in the last 17 sessions to reach a fresh all-time high. We’ll start with the BoE as they generated the main headlines, and contrary to building expectations that a potential rate hike could be imminent, the MPC in fact voted by 7-2 to keep Bank Rate on hold at 0.1%, with only the most hawkish members favouring a 15bps increase. This came in spite of the fact that the BoE upgraded their inflation forecasts yet again, now seeing CPI peaking “at around 5% in April 2022”. The meeting summary did say that if the data was in line with their projections it would “be necessary over coming months to increase Bank Rate”, but overall it was a pretty dovish decision, with the MPC also voting by 6-3 to continue with its existing QE program. In their forecasts that were conditioned on the market-implied path for Bank Rate, they said “a margin of spare capacity is expected to emerge”, and that CPI would be beneath target at the end of the forecast period, so again pushing back against market pricing that had been looking for multiple hikes in 2022. In response, our UK economists have shifted their call for lift-off of 15bps to December, before seeing further 25bps hikes in May 2022 and February 2023. For more details, see their reaction note (link here). Markets reacted strongly to the decision as investors were surprised by the extent of the BoE’s dovishness. Gilts rallied sharply and outperformed sovereign bonds elsewhere, with 5yr yields (-20.0bps) seeing their biggest move lower in over 5 years, back in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum. The 2yr yield was also down a massive -21.1 bps, marking its own biggest move lower since the initial market panic over Covid-19 back in March 2020. And sterling (-1.37%) had its worst performance against the dollar so far this year, which therefore left it as the worst performer among the G10 currencies too. The BoE meeting triggered a rally of global sovereign bonds, though whilst the gilt curve bull steepened, most other curves wound up flatter on the day. In the US, yields on 10yr Treasuries fell -7.7 bps to 1.53%, marking their biggest move lower since August, whilst the 2yr Treasury yield retreated -4.4bps. Real yields continue to drive the treasury curve, with the 10yr real yield down -8.6 bps to move back beneath -1% again. Elsewhere in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-5.6bps), OATs (-6.4bps) and BTPs (-11.4bps) all declined as well, with lower real yields the driver once again. This dramatic shift to price in greater monetary support for longer was good news for equities yesterday, with the major indices pressing on to fresh all-time highs. By the close of trade, the S&P 500 (+0.42%) had hit a new record, though in reality it was a fairly narrow-based advance, with fewer than half of the companies in the index actually moving higher on the day, whilst financials (-1.34%) underperformed against the backdrop of lower yields and a flatter curve. Interest-sensitive tech stocks did much better, with the NASDAQ (+0.81%) also at a record high as it achieved a 9th consecutive daily advance, its longest winning streak since 2019, whilst the FANG+ index of megacap tech stocks advanced +1.29% to reach a fresh high of its own. Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.41%) hit a record high too, even if the index was similarly hampered by financials (-0.86%), and records were also attained by Germany’s DAX (+0.44%) and France’s CAC 40 (+0.53%). That rally in equities hasn’t carried over into Asia this morning where indices including the Nikkei (-0.72%), the KOSPI (-0.65%), the Hang Seng (-0.96%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.25%) are all trading lower. However, the surge in sovereign bonds has been echoed elsewhere, with yields on Australian 10yr debt down -4.0bps this morning, and bonds also advanced in China after the PBOC increased their short-term cash injections yet again. Speaking of Chinese debt, Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd, a developer, and its units listed in Hong Kong were suspended from trading after the company missed payments on wealth products and raised liquidity concerns. Meanwhile, the latest Covid-19 outbreak in China continued to spread, with a further 90 new cases reported on Friday, 22 of which were asymptomatic. Otherwise, S&P 500 futures (+0.01%) are almost unchanged this morning and yields on 10y Treasuries have moved up +1.2bps. Looking ahead now, we’ll cap off a very busy macro week today with the US jobs report for October, which is out at 12:30 London time. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for a +400k increase in nonfarm payrolls, which in turn would send the unemployment rate down a tenth to a post-pandemic low of 4.7%. The last couple of jobs reports have seen some downside surprises, but if realised, that +400k number would be the strongest jobs growth in 3 months. We’ve had some fairly positive labour market data in advance of the jobs report too, with the ADP’s report of private payrolls exceeding expectations on Wednesday at 571k (vs. 400k expected), and yesterday the weekly initial jobless claims for the week through October 30 fell to a fresh post-pandemic low of 269k (vs. 275k expected). The Fed made it clear this week that labour market evolution after the delta variant will be a key determinant in the future path of monetary policy. Speaking of the Fed, it was reported by Dow Jones that Fed Chair Powell was seen visiting the White House yesterday. It comes with just 3 months left until the end of Powell’s current 4-year term, and follows President Biden saying on Tuesday that an announcement on the Fed position would come “fairly quickly”. For reference, the decision on who would be nominated as Fed Chair had already been announced at this point 4, 8 and 12 years ago. As well as the BoE, the other important meeting was that from the OPEC+ group, who rejected the demands from President Biden and others for a larger increase in oil production. They decided to increase output by +400k b/d in December, though afterwards oil actually gave up its surge earlier in the day to end the session lower, with WTI moving all the way from an intraday peak where it was up +3.17% to close down by -2.54%. A spokesperson for the US National Security Council said that the US would consider a range of tools to deal with oil prices, and Energy Secretary Granholm said last month that releasing crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve was being considered. Lastly on the data front, the Euro Area composite PMI for October was revised down a tenth from the flash reading to 54.2, whilst the services PMI was also revised down a tenth to 54.6. Separately, the Euro Area PPI reading for September came in at +16.0% year-on-year (vs. +15.4% expected). Lastly, the preliminary Q3 reading of nonfarm productivity showed an annualised decline of -5.0% (vs. -3.1% expected), which was its largest quarterly decline since 1981. To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the aforementioned US jobs report, but European data will also include September figures on Euro Area retail sales and German and French industrial production. Central bank speakers will include the ECB’s Vice President de Guindos, as well as the ECB’s Holzmann, Centeno and Panetta, in addition to the BoE’s Ramsden, Pill and Tenreyro. Tyler Durden Fri, 11/05/2021 - 08:12.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytNov 5th, 2021

56 gifts for your wife that are memorable and creative - from a clay sculpting kit to an art print of her favorite city

We rounded up the best gifts for your wife or partner this holiday season, including options that are romantic, sentimental, or just plain fun. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more. Getty Images Thoughtful gifts for your wife are key, whether it's for a birthday, anniversary, or just because. We rounded up unique gift ideas for her, whether you want a grand gesture or a personalized memento. Still looking for a gift? Check out our list of the All-Time Best products we've ever tested. Putting extra care into picking out thoughtful gifts for your wife shows her just how how special she is and how much you appreciate all she does. Whether you're looking for an anniversary gift, birthday gift, or just an "I love you" gift, we have a wide range of gift ideas for your wife she's sure to love.Of course, the best ways to show your appreciation for your loved ones can't be bought. Nothing can top showing your gratitude with patience, support, and love. But when it comes to the tangible, gifts for her can enhance the gratitude we show daily through our actions.Here are thoughtful gift ideas for your wife, ranging from romantic gift ideas to unique and personalize options. Browse all of the best gifts for your wife below, or jump to a specific gift category here:Romantic gifts for your wifeSentimental gifts for your wifeUnique gifts for your wifeFood and drink gifts for your wifeSelf-care gifts for your wifeStylish gifts for your wifeLuxury gifts for your wifeHere are 58 of the best gifts for your wife Romantic gifts for your wife An enchanting candle Diptyque Facebook Diptyque Baies Small Candle, $38, available at DiptyqueA scent from Diptique is a classic gift — and for good reason. The aromas are unique, without being overpowering. This tangy scent with flowery accents is just right for an everyday smell that's still romantic. You can also find more of our favorite candle brands here.  A 'just because' toast Wine.com/Insider La Marca Prosecco, $15.99, available at Wine.comCelebrating someone you love is an opportune time to pop open a bottle of bubbly. This bottle is well-priced, and though it's not the fanciest gift on its own, it'll pair nicely with something else from this list.  A special pair of earrings AUrate Zodiac Stud Earrings, $18, available at AUrateYou can't go wrong with getting your wife a pair of everyday earrings. These ones come in all different zodiac signs, which add just the right touch of personalization. If she's not into the signs, they're still a really nice, simple pair of studs. A modern twist on love letters Uncommon Goods/Insider How Do I Love Thee From A-Z, $20, available at Uncommon GoodsFill in the blanks about why you love your spouse. This little book holds 26 prompts, from A to Z, that let you express why you love and appreciate her. It is all bound together as a small book that she can have as a thoughtful keepsake forever. A way to discover a fresh new scent House of Sillage House of Sillage Perfume Discovery Set, $35, available at House of SillageNow your spouse can test out seven new alluring fragrances to find a favorite thanks to this discovery set. House of Sillage also has gift wrapping and gift message options. Sentimental gifts for your wife A sentimental map Grafomap Grafomap Custom Map, from $49, available at GrafomapMake her a totally custom map of one of her favorite places. Pick your location, then get to customizing. Grafomap lets you choose your own colors, write your own labels, and zoom in or out, for a map that is 100% unique.  A collection of your best memories Snapfish/Insider Snapfish Photo Book, from $12.99, available at SnapfishEven though it has become so easy to scroll through old photos with your phone on Facebook and Instagram, there is something special about a tangible photo book that you can look at. These are nice to leave around the house, flip through every now and then, and be reminded of the memories that fill the pages.  A thoughtful piece of home decor Uncommon Goods Hand Embroidered State Pillows, $225, available at Uncommon GoodsGive her some state pride with one of these beautiful pillows hand embroidered with each state's cities, towns, famous sites, cultural icons, and more. Pick a state that means something to her like where she was born, went to college, or where you met. These vibrant pillows are so unique; they'll look great in your home and are definite conversation starters. A portable printer Amazon HP Sprocket Portable Photo Printer, $74.95, available on AmazonIf your wife is always documenting moments on her smartphone, she'll love having the opportunity to turn all of those memories into real prints. All she has to do is connect her phone to the printer with Bluetooth, then quickly print her favorites into physical prints she can hang up or frame. Pick out a favorite photo of the two of you to get her started and add an extra special touch. A nostalgic trip down memory lane Uncommon Goods/Insider Create Your Own Reel Viewer, from $14.95, available at Uncommon GoodsDive headfirst into some nostalgia with a reel viewer like the ones you had as a child. Customize the reel with pictures of your favorite memories. It's a really fun way to reminisce about the past and is sure to get you and your spouse feeling sentimental. A DNA kit to connect with her family roots Amazon Ancestry DNA Kit, $99, available at Ancesty.comGive your wife the meaningful gift of learning more about her roots and family history with an Ancestry DNA Kit. She'll be able to discover her own DNA story with a few easy steps and get results in 6-8 weeks. Unique gifts for your wife A pottery starter kit Sculpd Sculpd Pottery Starter Bundle, $84, available from SculpdIf your wife enjoys getting crafty, this starter kit just might help her discover a new pottery passion. Every kit comes with 2 kilograms of air-dry clay, which is enough to make two different pieces. She can choose from projects like planters, ring dishes, vases, and more. A wearable blanket Amazon The Comfy Oversized Microfiber & Sherpa Wearable Blanket, $44.95, available on AmazonShe'll never be cold again thanks to this super cozy wearable blanket. Perfect for lounging around the house or cuddling up in at night, it comes in numerous color and pattern options to suit her tastes. A cute, custom phone case Bauble Bar BaubleBar x Off My Case iPhone Case, $68, available at BaubleBarA new phone case is always a fun little accessory update. Give her one that can be customized to say something that matters to her; think names, initials, favorite foods. You can get creative with what you want the case to say, as long as it fits within the 12 character maximum. An eye-catching print of her favorite city Uncommon Goods City Prints by Carolyn Gavin, $40, available at Uncommon GoodsThese sentimental yet meticulously crafted prints highlight ten major cities that your wife may hold dear to their heart. Each print is a bit different than the next, but they all share the depiction of their city's most notable landmarks.  A cute, custom gift box Greeatbl/Insider Greetabl Gift Box, starting at $10, available at GreetablGreetabl is the spot for times when you want to give those "just because" kind of gifts. The box also functions as the greeting card, to which you can add your own personal photos. Then you can pick two small gifts from a group of curated items like Sugarfina gummies or sweet-smelling soap. It's a small gift with the opportunity to add a lot of personal touches. A funky pair of socks Jimmy Lion/Insider Jimmy Lion Mid-Calf Socks, $9, available at Jimmy LionIf you're looking to put a smile on her face, gift your spouse a pair of these funky socks. The crazy patterns and bright colors make getting dressed a lot more fun.  A curated box of surprises Breobox brēō box One-Time Gift Purchase, $159, available at brēō boxBrēō box is a service that makes curated boxes full of unique and actually useful items. The contents of the box are always different, centering around everyday essentials, fitness, health, and tech items — and they're always seasonal. If they love the first box, you can even gift them a subscription.  Food and drinks gifts for your wife A fill-in recipe journal Papier Bon Appétit Recipe Journal, $28.04, available at PapierWhether it's a family recipe or new dishes to try out, this recipe journal stores every one of her delicious dishes and favorite restaurants. Stash every breakfast, lunch, dinner, or treat recipe in one place with this thoughtful gift for your wife. A tasty cake for special occasions Milk Bar/Alyssa Powell/Insider Milk Bar cakes, from $52, available at Milk BarCongratulate her on her special day or huge achievement with a delicious Milk Bar cake. A sweet Milk Bar cake that tastes irresistible will make her fall in love with you all over again. These cakes made our list of the All-Time Best products we tested. A high-tech spice grinder Amazon FinaMill Spice Grinder, from $39.99, available on AmazonThis nifty battery-operated spice grinder expertly grinds up dried spices and herbs at various coarseness with the simple touch of a button. Just pop in the interchangeable and refillable pods and enjoy freshly ground pepper, minced garlic, finely chopped onion, and more. A gift to satisfy any wife's sweet tooth Macy's/Insider Sugarfina Champagne Bears, $20, available at Neiman MarcusTreat your wife to some of the cutest sweet treats around. Sugarfina makes adorable gummies inspired by — and sometimes infused with — alcohol like champagne and rosé. They're just as pretty to look at as they are delicious to eat. Fancy olive oil that'll instantly elevate any dish Brightland Alive Olive Oil, $37, available at BrightlandIf they spend a lot of time in the kitchen, they probably already know the merits of high-quality olive oil. A drizzle of Alive from Brightland adds a vibrant, zesty flavor to any dish, plus the beautiful bottle will look great on display in their kitchen.  Something small but sweet Uncommon Goods/Insider Bees Knees Spicy Honey, $14.99, available at AmazonThis sweet and spicy honey will be a welcome addition to your kitchen. It's a thoughtful gift for an adventurous foodie who'll appreciate this hand-infused, locally made update to the classic sweetener. A taste of Japan by way of yummy snacks Bokksu Bokksu Tasting Gift, $44.95 per month, 3-month box, available at BokksuIf they love exploring new cultures through food, they'll appreciate this curated box of gourmet Japanese snacks. In this Bokksu box, your wife can expect to find between 10 to 14 snacks, a tea pairing, and an in-depth guide that details every product included.  A cookbook that'll inspire her next cheese plate Amazon/Insider "Platters and Boards" by Shelly Westerhausen, $15.38, available at AmazonShe's already the hostess with the mostest, but that doesn't mean she won't appreciate some inspiration for how to make her famous cheese plates and charcuterie boards even better. This book is filled with plenty of party-ready spreads along with the perfect meat and drink pairings for every platter. A handheld milk frother Williams Sonoma/Insider Aerolatte Handheld Milk Frother, $19.99, available at Bed Bath & BeyondYou know how she takes her morning coffee, so why not make it a little easier to get a rich, frothy cappuccino at home? It's a little gadget that can make a huge difference for her morning ritual.  A really nice apron Food52 Five Two Ultimate Apron, $45, available at Food52If one of her greatest joys is cooking, make sure your wife is suited up with some of the best cooking accessories around. This lightweight cotton apron has smart pockets to keep all the essentials at arm's reach, built-in potholders, and even comes in some really cute colors she'll actually want to wear. Coffee from around the world Uncommon Goods World Explorer's Coffee Sampler, $32, available at DriftawayAt the intersection of globetrotter and coffee connoisseur is this sample set. This box contains four unique coffees sourced from around the world, which vary depending on the season and other conditions. It's a great gift that'll make morning coffee a little more exciting. Self-care gifts for your wife A four-piece set of popular face masks Sephora Peter Thomas Roth Mask to the Max Kit, $58, available at SephoraTreat your spouse to new and cult-favorite face masks that treat any skincare concerns with premium ingredients. The four-piece mask kit is designed to hydrate, exfoliate, soothe, and tighten any skin type. A journal to jot down her thoughts Rifle Paper Co./Business Insider Stitched Notebook Set, $15, available at Rifle Paper Co.Your wife can keep this set of three beautiful notebooks out on her desk or nightstand to jot down everything from her to-do lists to her daily musings.  A subscription to 100+ classes MasterClass MasterClass Subscription, $180 annually, available from MasterClassMasterClass provides online video classes taught by well-known celebrities and industry leaders. Your wife can opt for a cooking class with Thomas Keller or a photography lesson from Annie Leibovitz. Plus, right now the subscription comes with a 2-for-1 offer, so you can gift a subscription to yourself as part of the deal. An exciting new read Book of the Month Instagram Book of the Month Membership, $49.99/3 months, $89.99/6 months, $169.99/12 months, available at Book of the MonthFor the wife that loves to read, give her the joy of getting lost in a book. Book of the Month curates some of the best new reads and has your pick delivered to your door as a hardcover each month. It's a great way to discover great new books and authors, plus if you sign up now you can get a free book. A luxurious exfoliator to keep skin smooth Necessaire Necessaire The Body Exfoliator, $30, available at SephoraNecessaire's clean beauty products come in beautiful, minimalist packaging that looks as good in their bathroom as it feels on their skin. This gentle exfoliator will help them slough off dry winter skin for good.  A candle inspired by notable scents Otherland/Alyssa Powell/Insider Otherland Candles, $36, available at OtherlandWe love Otherland's candles, and we're sure your spouse will too. The assortment includes a selection of nostalgic aromas reminiscent of sandalwood, fig, and champagne, to name a few. It's one of the All-Time Best products we've ever tested. A Disney + subscription for her movie marathon Alyssa Powell/Business Insider Subscribe for $7.99/month or $79.99/yearUnlimited access to movies and shows from Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and 20th Century Fox make for a perfect movie marathon.Read everything there is to know about Disney+ over here. And if you need to give her some binge-spiration, here are all the new movies available to stream. A cute and cozy pair of pajamas Shopbop/Eberjey Eberjey Gisele Short PJ Set, $98, available at ShopbopA comfortable pajama set can make bedtime much better. Sometimes, though, it's hard to justify spending so much on an outfit you'll never wear outside of your house. Since they might not be something she would buy herself, but you know she'd enjoy them, treat her to a comfy and colorful pair. A mist made of calming essential oil Grove Collaborative/Insider Sleep Comes Easy Mist, $10, available at Grove CollaborativeLavender, chamomile, and frankincense are revered for their calming properties. Give your spouse all the tools she needs for a calm night with this mist. It can be used as a mist or pillow spray to wash any stress away and bring on major relaxation.  A super-hydrating sheet mask Bloomingdale's/Insider Skin Laundry Hydrating Facial Sheet Mask, $10, available at JCPenneyFor only $10, this little luxury will make her feel like she's indulging in a spa experience. Simply leave this mask on for about 20 minutes to refresh and soften your skin. You might want to get two or three since she's probably going to like these— and you probably will too. A statement candle Nordstrom Voluspa Japonica Gardenia Candle, $30, available at SephoraThis candle has a mix of gardenia, tuberose, and Tunisian clove fragrances. If you're not familiar with candle fragrances, all you need to know is that this will make a room smell delightful. Beyond the scent, the embossed glass jar is the final touch that makes this such a great gift. Breakfast in bed Etsy Breakfast in Bed Tray, $30.26, available at EtsyThey say that breakfast is the most important meal of the day, and I say it's best served in bed. Use this cute tray to give them their favorite breakfast treats without ever having to leave the room. You can choose from an array of color options, sizes, and even have the text customized.Of course, this tray is best paired with a delicious, home-cooked meal and a lazy weekend morning. A refreshing body scrub Macy's Kiehl's Gentle Exfoliating Body Scrub, $36, available at Kiehl'sThis refreshing scrub is gentle and leaves skin smelling great and feeling soft. She'll thank you for this indulgent product that yields great results. A hydrating gift set Sephora Laneige Hydration-To-Go! Normal to Dry Skin Set, $29, available at SephoraThis travel set is great for getting an on-the-go glow and includes some of Laneige's most popular products, including the cult-favorite Lip Sleeping Mask. If they have combination or oily skin, don't fret: Laneige makes an additional set. Stylish gifts for your wife A delicate, personalized gold bracelet Lalinne/Etsy/Insider Lalinne Jewelry Initial Bracelet, $22, available at EtsyThere are endless possibilities to how you can personalize this bracelet. The initials of kids, pets, or just the two of you are all thoughtful, personal takes on this delicate piece. A summery pair of sunglasses Warby Parker Percey Sunglasses, from $95, available at Warby ParkerTreat your wife to a new pair of shades, just in time for sunny spring. This pair takes the classic tortoise and flecks it with pink for a fresh take. If pink isn't really her color, you can find plenty of other styles at Warby Parker. A practical toiletry bag Dagne Dover Hunter Toiletry Bag, $40, available at Dagne DoverYour wife probably already has a few toiletry bags to hold her trinkets while she travels, but this one — with its multiple pockets, removable mesh pouches, and waterproof neoprene material — reigns supreme.  A socially conscious shirt Everlane Everlane 100% Human Collection, $12-$34, available at EverlaneShow your wife you appreciate her with a product that supports gender equality. When you purchase any shirt in 100% Human Equality Now Collection, Everlane will donate a portion of proceeds to the ACLU. Not only will she look great sporting this socially conscious message, but you can feel good about the fact that part of your purchase is going to a great cause. A simple bar necklace Mejuri Horizontal Engravable Bar Necklace, $280, available at MejuriJewelry is a classic gift and this simple bar necklace is timeless choice. Engrave it with a name or saying of up to 10 characters for some personalization.  A cozy pullover Patagonia Patagonia Synchilla Lightweight Snap-T Fleece Pullover, $119 available at PatagoniaWhether you love hiking together or simply spending time on the couch, this pullover is absolutely worth its received hype. We love many of Patagonia's pullovers and sweaters because of their always dependable quality, durability, and comfort level. It's one of the best products we've ever tested. The comfiest sneakers she's ever worn Allbirds Women's Wool Runners, $95, available at AllbirdsAllbirds have reached cult-like status for their superior combination of comfort, style, and convenience. Each pair is made out of Merino Wool, which makes them super soft inside and out, plus they're machine washable so she can wear them wherever life takes her.  A new pair of leggings for her favorite workout Alo Yoga High-Waist Alosoft Sheila Legging, $78, available at Alo YogaGreat workout clothes can totally change the tone of a workout — look good, feel good, right? This pair of performance leggings is perfect for her yoga practice, and cute enough to wear around town after that too. If you want to complete the outfit, throw in a matching top.  Luxury gifts for your wife A gorgeous set of glassware Estelle Colored Glass Estelle Colored Wine Stemware (Set of 6), $175, available at EstelleElevate your wife's stemware collection for her next wine night in or dinner party with these stunning, handblown glasses. Sets are available in rainbow hues from cobalt to blush and you can even mix and match colors.  Flowers that will last all year Rosebox Custom Small Box, $179, available at RoseboxGetting a bouquet of roses is a sweet gesture, but a chic box of fresh stems that will last a full year takes it to the next level. Yes, you read that right. Rosebox arrangements are real flowers that are carefully preserved to stay fresh for a full year without any maintenance. Choose from a range of sizes from mini boxes to large centerpieces. Roses are also available in an array of color options from classic red to bright turquoise or lavender.   A chic weighted blanket Bearaby Cotton Napper, $249, available at BearabyWeighted blankets have been shown to help reduce anxiety and help some people sleep better. This soft and luxurious version from Bearaby is chic enough to leave draped over the couch as a decor accent and cuddly enough to curl up in for a cozy night in. It also comes in five different color options and three different weights for a more customized experience. A smartwatch she'll wear daily Apple Apple Watch Series 7, from $399, available at AppleThe Apple Watch Series 7 is the best smartwatch Apple currently sells. Your wife will certainly appreciate that it comes with top-of-the-line health features, a brighter display, and fast charging. A royally-approved travel tech organizer Stow Stow Travel & Tech The First Class Leather Case, $511, available at Stow LondonThis stylish tech travel case will keep all your wife's accessories organized on your next trip and comes with a Stow-branded USB and portable power bank as extra perks. Plus, it's royally approved. Meghan Markle has been spotted traveling with this very case. Choose from eight different colors and add embossed or hand-painted initials to it for an extra personal touch. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderNov 1st, 2021

Futures Meltup To New All Time High As November Begins With A Bang

Futures Meltup To New All Time High As November Begins With A Bang US futures and European stocks rose to a new record high to start the historically stellar month of November... ... and Asian markets jumped amid positive earnings surprises and as concerns of a global stagflation and central bank policy error faded for a few hours (they will return shortly). TSLA melted up by another $35BN in market cap "because gamma." S&P 500 futures climbed 0.4% after the cash index posted the biggest monthly gain since last November. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence in the continuing recovery from the pandemic, helping spur gains in equity markets. Health-care shares rallied in Europe. The dollar and Treasury yields advanced as investors awaited this week’s Federal Reserve meeting to announce the start of tapering (which will then lead to rate hikes next July according to Goldman). Oil rebounded on fresh supply concerns. In addition to the now absolutely batshit insane meltup in Tesla, which won't end until the SEC cracks down on gamma squeeze manipulation, other mega-cap technology stocks such as Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon.and Apple, aka oddly enough GAMMA, traded mixed. Exxon and Chevron added about 0.7% each as JP Morgan raised its price target on the oil majors following their strong quarterly results last week. Major Wall Street banks gained between 0.2% and 0.8%. The broader S&P 500 financials sector slipped last week, breaking a three-week winning streak. Lucid Group Inc. rose 4.8% in premarket, extending its advance from last week, after the new U.S. tax plan included a proposal to make EV tax credits more widely available. Harley-Davidson Inc jumped 8.2% after the European Union removed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products including whiskey, power boats and company’s motorcycles. Here are the most notable pre-market movers: Tesla shares rise 2.3% in U.S. premarket trading after their biggest monthly gain in almost a year in October ABVC BioPharma jumps more than 700% as thelittle known biotechnology company garners attention from retail traders on social media Ocugen and Zosano (ZSAN US) are some other top gainers among retail trader stocks in premarket A largely upbeat earnings season has helped investors look past a mixed-macro economic picture, with the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq recording their best monthly performance since November 2020 in October. Of the 279 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results, 87% have met or exceeded estimates. Among members of Europe’s Stoxx 600 index, 68% surpassed expectations. On the economic data front, readings on October factory activity data from IHS Markit and ISM are due after market open, followed by non-farm payrolls on Friday. Focus is now on the Fed’s two-day policy meeting which concludes at 2pm on Nov 3, where the central bank will announce the tapering of its $120 billion monthly bond buying program by $15 billion. With recent U.S. data showing inflation pressures building, the market has also started pricing in rate hikes next year. November and December tend to be among the strongest months for stocks and any hawkish tilt in the Fed’s message could catch equities by surprise.  Meanwhile, Biden’s economic agenda seemed to be on track as Democratic lawmakers worked to overcome their differences on a $1.75 trillion social-spending plan. “Depending on where you are looking, you are getting very different stories on the outlook for global markets,” Kerry Craig, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “If you look at equities and the rally you are seeing, you think everything is OK. If you look at the bond market and how yields are moving, there’s obviously a lot more concern around inflation and policy normalization.” European stocks hit the afterburner out of the gate with the Euro Stoxx 50 adding as much as 1% before drifting off best levels. FTSE MIB and IBEX outperform, FTSE 100 lags slightly. Banks, construction and travel are the strongest sectors; tech the sole Stoxx 600 sector in the red. Barclays Plc fell 1.5%. Chief Executive Officer Jes Staley stepped down amid a U.K. regulatory probe into how he characterized his ties to the financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Asian stocks were poised to snap a three-day decline thanks to a rally in Japanese equities, which got a boost from an election victory for the country’s ruling party and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.6%, while Japan’s benchmark Topix and the blue-chip Nikkei 225 Stock Average each added more than 2%. Sony Group, Toyota Motor and Tokyo Electron were among the single-largest contributors to the regional measure’s rise. By sector, industrials and information-technology companies provided the biggest boosts.  Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party defied worst-case scenarios to secure a majority by itself in a closely-watched election Sunday. Analysts said the outcome signals political stability, paving the way for economic stimulus to be executed as anticipated (see Street Wrap).  “Indicators of market activity show that there will be a positive market impact to the election, as although it was not greatly different than expectations, the LDP clearly surpassed some of the more dire polls of last week and there will not likely be any party shake-up in the intermediate-term,” John Vail, Tokyo-based chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management wrote in a note.  The market is also “reacting positively” to Friday’s share-price gains in the U.S., Vail said. Futures on the S&P 500 rose during Asian trading hours after the underlying gauge added 0.2%.  Asia’s regional benchmark capped a weekly drop of 1.5%, its worst such performance since early October, as disappointing results weighed on big technology stocks. More than half of the companies on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index have reported results for the latest quarter with about 37% posting a positive surprise, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.6% to 7,370.80, recouping some losses after Friday’s 1.4% plunge. Health and consumer discretionary stocks contributed the most to the benchmark’s gain. WiseTech was among the top performers, snapping a four-day losing streak. Westpac was the worst performer after the bank delivered a smaller share buyback than some had expected. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 13,030.31. In rates, fixed income trades heavy with gilts leading the long end weakness. Treasuries were slightly cheaper on the long-end of the curve as S&P 500 futures exceed last week’s record highs. Yields are cheaper by 2bp to 2.5bp from belly out to long-end, with front-end slightly outperforming and steepening 2s10s spread by 1.7bp; 10-year yields around 1.58% with gilts underperforming by 1.1bp, Italian bonds by 3.5bp. Gilts and Italian bonds lag, with Bank of England rate decision due Thursday. In the U.S., weekly highlights include refunding announcement and FOMC Wednesday and Friday’s October jobs report. Bund and gilt curves bear steepen with gilts ~1bps cheaper to bunds. Peripheral spreads swing an early tightening to a broad widening to core with Italy the weakest performer. Overnight futures and options flows included block seller in 5-year note futures (3,900 at 3:09am ET) and a buyer of TY Week 1 129.00 puts at 3 on 10,000, says London trader. In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index held a narrow range. SEK and CHF top the G-10 score board, GBP lags with cable snapping below 1.3650. TRY outperforms EMFX peers. The BBDXY inched up and the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers, with many of the risk-sensitive currencies leading gains The pound retraced some losses against the dollar, after dipping earlier in the European session. The yield on 2-year gilts hit the highest since May 2019. Financial markets are almost fully pricing in a 15-basis point increase in the Bank of England’s benchmark lending rate on Nov. 4, while economists increasingly share that view, even as they see the decision as a far closer call. A record share of U.K. businesses are expecting to increase prices, adding to the inflationary pressures confronting Bank of England policy makers ahead of their meeting on Thursday Australian bonds extended opening gains as traders positioned for the Reserve Bank’s policy decision Tuesday. The Aussie fell, tracking losses in iron ore prices following a weak China PMI, which showed signs of further weakness in October The yen fell for a second day after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party retained its outright majority in a lower-house election, reinforcing bets for fiscal stimulus and reforms. Hedge funds boosted net short positions on the yen to the most since January 2019, raising the risk of a squeeze should risk appetite deteriorate suddenly and demand for havens rise The Turkish lira edged higher after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had “positive” talks with U.S. President Joe Biden In commodities, crude futures drift higher. WTI adds 40c to trade near $84; Brent rises ~1% near $84.50. Spot gold is quiet near $1,786/oz. Base metals are mixed: LME nickel and tin outperform, zinc lags. Looking at today's calendar, earnings continue on Monday with PG&E and ON Semiconductor reporting pre-market, and NXP Semiconductors post-market. We also get the latest Mfg PMI print and the October Mfg ISM print. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,612.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 479.40 MXAP up 0.4% to 198.04 MXAPJ down 0.3% to 645.49 Nikkei up 2.6% to 29,647.08 Topix up 2.2% to 2,044.72 Hang Seng Index down 0.9% to 25,154.32 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,544.48 Sensex up 1.3% to 60,079.40 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,370.78 Kospi up 0.3% to 2,978.94 Brent Futures up 0.3% to $83.95/bbl Gold spot down 0.0% to $1,783.20 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.14 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.091% Euro up 0.1% to $1.1571 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg House Democratic leaders are pushing hard to get Biden’s package finalized, with votes on both that bill and a smaller infrastructure plan this week -- the latest in a string of self- imposed deadlines. The Senate, which already approved the public-works bill, is likely to vote on the larger package later in the month Leaders of the Group of 20 countries agreed on a climate deal that fell well short of what some nations were pushing for, leaving it to negotiators at the COP26 summit in Glasgow this week to try to achieve a breakthrough The U.K. said it will trigger legal action against France within 48 hours unless a dispute over post-Brexit fishing rights is resolved, as the growing spat threatens to overshadow the United Nations’ climate summit Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she believes Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has taken “significant action” in the wake of revelations over the personal investments of U.S. central-bank policy makers; Yellen dismissed recent moves in the bond market that have signaled concern about monetary policy makers squelching economic growth, and expressed confidence in the continuing recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic The U.S. and the European Union have reached a trade truce on steel and aluminum that will allow the allies to remove tariffs on more than $10 billion of their exports each year Asia-Pac bourses traded mostly higher amid tailwinds from last Friday's fresh record highs in the US where Wall St. topped off its best monthly performance YTD, but with some of the advances in the region capped as participants digested mixed Chinese PMI data and ahead of this week’s slew of key risk events including crucial central bank policy announcements from the RBA, BOE and FOMC, as well as the latest NFP jobs data. ASX 200 (+0.8%) was led higher by the consumer-related sectors amid a reopening play after Australia permitted fully vaccinated citizens to travel internationally again and with several M&A related headlines adding to the optimism including the Brookfield-led consortium acquisition of AusNet Services and Seven West Media’s takeover of Prime Media. Conversely, the largest weighted financials sector failed to join in on the spoils with Westpac shares heavily pressured following its FY results which fell short of analyst estimates despite more than doubling on its cash earnings. Nikkei 225 (+2.5%) was the biggest gainer with the index underpinned by favourable currency flows and following the general election in which the ruling LDP maintained a majority in the lower house although won fewer seats than previously for its slimmest majority since 2012, while the KOSPI (+0.4%) was kept afloat but with upside limited by slightly softer than expected trade data. Hang Seng (-1.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) were subdued amid a slew of earnings releases and following mixed Chinese PMI data in which the official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed analysts’ forecasts with the former at a second consecutive contraction, although Caixin Manufacturing PMI was more encouraging and topped market consensus. Finally, 10yr JGBs initially declined amid gains in stocks and recent pressure in T-notes due to rate hike bets with analysts at Goldman Sachs bringing forward their Fed rate hike calls to July 2022 from summer 2023 citing inflation concerns, although 10yr JGBS then recovered despite the mixed results from the 10yr JGB auction which showed a higher b/c amid lower accepted prices and wider tail in price. Top Asian News Japan’s Kishida Mulls Motegi for LDP Secretary General: Kyodo Home Sales Slump; Another Bond Deadline Looms: Evergrande Update Two Thirds of China’s Top Developers Breach a ‘Red Line’ on Debt Hedge Fund Quad Sells Memory Stocks Citing Demand Uncertainty European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.6%) have kicked the week off on the front-foot with the Stoxx 600 printing a fresh all-time-high. The handover from the APAC session was a largely constructive one with the Nikkei 225 (+2.6%) the best in class for the region amid favourable currency flows and the fallout from the Japanese general election which saw the ruling LDP party maintain a majority in the lower house. Elsewhere, performance for the Shanghai Composite (-0.1%) and Hang Seng (-0.9%) was less impressive amid a slew of earnings releases and mixed Chinese PMI data in which the official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed analysts’ forecasts. US equity index futures are trading on a firmer footing (ES +0.5%) ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and Friday’s NFP data. The latest reports from Washington suggest that House Democrats are hoping to pass the social spending and bipartisan infrastructure bills as soon as Tuesday. Back to Europe, a recent note from JPM stated that Q3 European earnings “are coming in well ahead of expectations in aggregate”, adding that results are healthy when considering the “trickier operating backdrop”. Sectors in the region are higher across the board with Auto names top of the leaderboard. Renault (+3.3%) sits at the top of the CAC 40 with the name potentially gaining some reprieve from agreement to resolve the US-EU steel and aluminium trade dispute (something which the Co. has previously noted as a negative). Also following the resolution, Thyssenkrupp (+2.8%) and Salzgitter (+4.5%) are both trading notably higher. Barclays (-2.0%) shares are seen lower after news that CEO Staley is to step down with immediate effect following the investigation into his relationship with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein; Barclays' Global Head of Markets, Venkatakrishnan is to take over. UK homebuilders (Persimmon -2.1%, Taylor Wimpey -1.9%, Barratt Developments -1.9%, Berkeley Group -1.7%) are softer on the session amid concerns that the sector could fall victim to higher mortgage rates given the shape of the UK yield curve. Ryanair (+1%) shares are higher post-earnings which saw the Co. continue its recovery from the pandemic, albeit still expects a loss for the year. Furthermore, the board is considering the merits of retaining its standard listing on the LSE. Finally, BT (+4.2%) is the best performer in the Stoxx 600 ahead of earnings on Thursday with press reports suggesting that the Co. could announce that its GBP 1bln cost savings target will be met a year earlier than the guided March 2023. Top European News SIG Proposed Offering for EU300m Senior Secured Notes Due 2026 Delivery Hero’s Turkey Unit CEO Nevzat Aydin to Step Down Goldman Sachs Says ‘Lost Decade’ Is Looming for 60/40 Portfolios URW Sells Stake in Paris Triangle Tower Project to AXA IM Alts In FX, the Greenback is holding above 94.000 in index terms and gradually ground higher after pausing for breath and taking some time out following its rapid resurgence last Friday to eclipse the 94.302 month end best at 94.313 before waning again. Hawkish vibes going into the FOMC are underpinning the Dollar and helping to offset external factors that are less supportive, including ongoing strength in global stock markets on solid if not stellar Q3 earnings and economic recovery from COVID-19 lockdown or restricted levels. Hence, the DXY is keeping its head above the round number and outperforming most major peers within and beyond the basket, awaiting Markit’s final manufacturing PMI, the equivalent ISM and construction spending ahead of the Fed on Wednesday and NFP on Friday. JPY/AUD - Little sign of relief for the Yen from victory by Japan’s ruling LDP part at the weekend elections as the 261 seat majority secured is down from the previous 276 and the tightest winning margin since 2012. Moreover, Security General Amari lost his constituency and new PM Kishida concedes that this reflects the public’s adverse feelings towards the Government over the last 4 years. Usd/Jpy is eyeing 114.50 as a result and the Aussie is looking precarious around 0.7500 against the backdrop of weakness in commodity prices even though perceptions for the upcoming RBA have turned markedly towards the potential for YCT to be withdrawn following firm core inflation readings and no defence of the 0.1% April 2024 bond target. NZD/EUR/CHF/CAD/GBP - All narrowly mixed vs their US counterpart, and with the Kiwi also taking advantage of the aforementioned apprehension in the Aud via the cross, while the Euro has pared declines from just under 1.1550, but still looks top-heavy into 1.1600. Elsewhere, the Franc is pivoting 0.9160 and 1.0600 against the Euro with more attention on a rise in Swiss sight deposits at domestic banks as evidence of intervention than a fractionally softer than expected manufacturing PMI, the Loonie is keeping afloat of 1.2400 ahead of Markit’s Canadian manufacturing PMI and Sterling is striving to stay above 1.3600, but underperforming vs the Euro circa 0.8470 amidst the ongoing tiff between the UK and France over fishing rights. SCANDI/EM - Robust Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs plus broad risk appetite is underpinning the Sek and Nok, in contrast to the Cnh and Cny following disappointing official Chinese PMIs vs a more respectable Caixin print, but the EM laggard is the Zar in knock-on reaction to Gold’s fall from grace on Friday, increasingly bearish technical impulses and SA energy supply issues compounded by Eskom’s load-shedding. Conversely, the Try has pared some declines irrespective of a slowdown in Turkey’s manufacturing PMI as the CBRT conducted a second repo op for Lira 27 bn funds maturing on November 11 at 16%. In commodities, WTI and Brent are firmer this morning with gains of between USD 0.50-1.00/bbl, this upside is in-spite of a lack of fundamental newsflow explicitly for the complex and is seemingly derived from broader risk sentiment, as mentioned above. Nonetheless, Energy Ministers are beginning to give commentary ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ event and so far Angola, Kuwait and Iraq officials have voiced their support for the planned 400k BPD hike to production in December. This reiteration of existing plans is in opposition from calls from non-OPEC members such as the US and Japan that the group should look to increase production quicker than planned, in a bid to quell rising prices. Separately, Saudi Aramco reported Q3 earnings over the weekend in which its net profit doubled given strong crude prices and sales volumes improving by 12% QQ; subsequently, some analysts have highlighted the possibility for a end-2021 special dividend. Elsewhere, base metals are mixed and fairly contained in-spite of the EU and US announcing an agreement to resolve the ongoing aluminium and steel trade dispute. While spot gold and silver are modestly firmer this morning as the yellow metal remains contained after its slip from the USD 1800/oz mark in the tail-end of last week. Currently, spot gold is pivoting its 100-DMA at USD 1786 with the 50- and 200-DMAs residing either side at USD 1780/oz and USD 1791/oz respectively. US Event Calendar 9:45am: Oct. Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 59.2, prior 59.2 10am: Oct. ISM Manufacturing, est. 60.5, prior 61.1 10am: Sept. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Welcome to November. I had three halloween parties over the weekend which is probably more than the entire number I went to before I had kids. I still have some spooky make up on this morning that I just couldn’t get off from last night. So there’s a reason alone to zoom into the call at 3pm today. As it’s the 1st of November Henry is about to publish our monthly performance review. It was a hectic month of higher inflation expectations and commodities, and also the best S&P 500 month of the year. Bonds underperformed across the board but these small negatives masked great volatility and stress under the surface, especially in the last week. See the report that should be out in the next 30-60mins. With all due respect to our readers in Australia, I’m going to open the market section this morning with a line I don’t think I’ve written in 27 years of market commentary and probably won’t again. And it’s not about England thrashing Australia at cricket on Saturday. Yes the most important event of the week could be the RBA meeting tomorrow. 2 year yields last week rose from 0.15% on Wednesday morning to 0.775% at the close on Friday as the RBA were conspicuous by their absence in defending the 0.1% target on the April 24 bond. I’ve absolutely zero idea what they are going to do tomorrow which should help you all tremendously but their absence again this morning gives a decent indication. I was taught economics in an era where central banks liked to keep an element of mystery and surprise. As such I’ve always disliked the forward guidance era as it encourages markets to pile on to much riskier, one way positions that a normally functioning market should naturally allow. But to go from forward guidance to silence (that rhymes) is a recipe for huge market turmoil if the facts change. It's unclear if the full implications of last week’s carnage at the global front end has yet been cleared out. There is lots of speculation about large unwinds, big stop losses etc. Liquidity was also awful last week. Much might depend on central banks this week. Make no mistake though there is considerable pain out there. The latest this morning in Aussie rates is that the 2y yield is down around -7bps while the 10y yield is down -19.0bps. So we wait with baited breath for tomorrow. Elsewhere in Asia, the Nikkei 225 (+2.42%) is charging ahead this morning as Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party kept its majority after lower house elections, thus boosting optimism about a potential fiscal stimulus. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (+0.43%) and the Shanghai composite (+0.07%) are outperforming the Hang Seng (-1.10%). In terms of data, China’s official manufacturing PMI fell from 49.6 to 49.2 (49.7 expected), not helped by commodities price rises and electricity shortages. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 52.4 from 53.2 (consensus 53). The Caixin manufacturing PMI did beat at 50.6 this morning (consensus 50). In terms of virus developments in the region, Shanghai Disneyland is closed amid recent COVID outbreaks, while Singapore is adding ICU beds in response to high levels of serious cases. The S&P 500 mini futures is up +0.23% this morning, the US 10y Treasury is at 1.56% (+1.2bps). It’s strange to have a likely Fed taper announcement on Wednesday be third billing for the week but the BoE on Thursday might be the next most important meeting as it’s still a finely judged call as to whether they hike this week or not. DB (preview here) think they will raise rates by 15bps with two 25bps hikes in February and May. They’ll also end QE a month earlier than planned. So over to the third billing, namely the Fed. They will announce a well flagged taper on Wednesday. In line with recent guidance, DB expect that the Fed will announce monthly reductions of $10bn and $5bn of Treasury and MBS purchases, respectively. With the first cut to purchases coming mid-November, this will bring the latest round of QE to a conclusion in June 2022. The Fed has some flexibility with this timetable but it will be interesting to hear how much Powell pushes back on markets that price in two hikes in 2022, including one almost fully priced for before the taper ends. If markets attacked the Fed in the same way they have the RBA the global financial system would have a lot of issues so it’s a fine balance for the Fed. They won’t want to push back too aggressively on market pricing given the uncertainty but they won’t want an outright attack on forward guidance. Moving on, a lowly fourth billing will be reserved for US payrolls on Friday. DB expect the headline gain (+400k forecast, consensus +425k vs. +194k previously) to modestly outperform that of private payrolls (+350k vs. +317k) and for the unemployment rate to fall by a tenth to 4.7% and average hourly earnings to post another strong gain (+0.4% vs. +0.6%) amidst still-elevated hours worked (34.8hrs vs. 34.8hrs). Outside of all this excitement, we have the COP26 which will dominate all your news outlets. The other main data highlight are the global PMIs (today and Wednesday mostly) which will give insight into how the economic recovery has progressed in the first month of Q4 with the surveys shedding light onto how inflation is affecting suppliers. There is lots more in store for us this week but see the day by day calendar at the end for the full run down The market also enters the second half of the 3Q earnings season. There are 168 S&P 500 and 85 Stoxx 600 companies reporting this week with 52% of the S&P 500 and 48% of the STOXX 600 having already reported. DB’s Binky Chadha published an update on earnings season over the weekend (link here). In the US, the size of the earnings beat has declined over the course of the season and is on track to hit 7%, well below the record 14-20% range post pandemic. Excluding the lumpy loan-loss reserve releases by banks, the beat is even lower at 5%, bringing it back in line with the historical norm. Quarterly earnings are on track to be down sequentially from Q2 to Q3 by -1.1% (qoq seasonally adjusted), the first drop since Q2 2020. The flat to down read of earnings is broad based across sector groups. Forward consensus estimates have fallen outside of the Energy sector. The S&P 500 nevertheless has seen one of the strongest earning season rallies on record. See much more in Binky’s piece. This week’s highlights include NXP Semiconductors, Zoom, and Tata Motors today before Pfizer, T-Mobile, Estee Lauder, BP, Mondelez, Activision Blizzard, and AP Moller-Maersk tomorrow. Then on Wednesday we’ll hear from Novo Nordisk, Qualcomm, CVS, Marriott, Albemarle, and MGM resorts. Thursday sees reports from Toyota, Moderna, Square, Airbnb, Uber, and Deutsche Post and then a busy Friday with Alibaba Group, Dominion Energy, Honda, and Mitsubishi. Looking back now and reviewing last week in numbers, it was a week of heightened intraday volatility within rates, as markets brought forward the expected timing of central bank policy actions across advanced economies while revising down growth expectations. Position stop outs almost certainly played a role as the magnitude of the moves were out of sync with macro developments while FX and equity markets were not nearly as volatile. Global front end rates started moving in earnest on Wednesday, following the Bank of Canada’s surprise decision to end net asset purchases, while bringing forward the timing of liftoff, which sent 2yr Canadian bonds more than +20bps higher. In the following days, the RBA opted not to defend their yield curve control target, and ECB President Lagarde did not use her press conference to provide much of a forceful pushback on recent repricing. All told, almost every DM economy saw their 2 yr bond selloff, including the US (+4.4 bps, +0.8 bps Friday), UK (+4.9 bps, +5.9 bps Friday), Germany (+5.2 bps, +3.2 bps Friday), Canada (+23bps) and Australia (+65bps). The long end went the other direction in the core countries, with many curves twist flattening over the week as negative growth sentiment weighed on the back end. Nominal 10yr yields declined -6.2 bps (-2.8 bps Friday) in the US, -11.1 bps (+2.5 bps Friday) in the UK, and were flat in Germany (+3.0 bps Friday). Unlike the rest of October, the decline in nominal yields coincided with declining inflation breakevens (albeit from historically high levels), with 10yr breakevens declining -5.2 bps (-0.6 bps Friday) in the US, -25.4 bps (-8.5 bps Friday) in the UK, and -16.3 bps (-11.5 bps Friday) in Germany. Note that outside the core there were some bond markets that moved higher in yield with 10yr bonds in Canada (+7bps), Australia (+30bps) and Italy (+19bps) all higher for different reasons. Some of the bond moves above don’t do the intra-day volatility any justice though. Elsewhere Crude oil prices dipped to close out what was otherwise another very good month, with Brent and WTI -1.34% (+0.07% Friday) and -0.23% (+0.92% Friday) lower. Meanwhile, equity markets marched to the beat of a different drum. The S&P 500 (+1.33%, +0.19% Friday), Nasdaq (+2.71%, +0.33% Friday), and DJIA (+0.40%, +.25% Friday) all set new all-time highs, while the STOXX 600 increased +0.77% (+0.07% Friday), cents below the all-time high set in August. Generally strong earnings relative to a worried market prior to the season again supported equity markets. Calls were replete with mentions of supply chain woes and labour shortages though, but companies sounded an optimistic note on end-user demand. Many big tech stocks reported, to more mixed results than the broader index. Alphabet and Microsoft beat on both revenue and earnings, Facebook and Apple missed analyst revenue estimates, while Amazon and Twitter missed revenue and earnings estimates. Ford and Caterpillar, two bellwethers particularly exposed to current supply chain and labour maladies, fared especially well. So far this season 279 companies have reported, with 206 beating on revenue and 237 beating on earnings Out of D.C., after prolonged negotiations within the Democratic Party, US President Biden unveiled a new social and climate spending framework, containing $1.75 trillion in spending measures as well as revenue-raising offsets. Once the text is finalized, it should enable a vote on the social spending package as well as the separately-negotiated bi-partisan infrastructure bill. More is likely to come this week. Tyler Durden Mon, 11/01/2021 - 07:59.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytNov 1st, 2021

Janet Yellen Flip-Flops, Insists Biden"s "BBB" Plan Will Actually Help Suppress Inflation

Janet Yellen Flip-Flops, Insists Biden's 'BBB' Plan Will Actually Help Suppress Inflation Before jetting off to Rome for a weekend G-20 summit in Rome, President Biden on Thursday offered his most detailed outline yet of the Dems new $1.75 trillion social spending/climate changing package, a number that was too small for progressives, who proceeded to block a Thursday vote on the president's "bipartisan" infrastructure bill. Speaking to CNBC from Rome where Yellen is attending the G-20 conference of global leaders with President Biden, the Treasury Secretary delivered her latest pitch in support of the $1.75 trillion social spending-climate agenda, covering a critical area of concern that her boss did his best to avoid during his speech yesterday. That subject? Inflation, which Biden's aides probably felt might be too dangerous for him to discuss due to his cognitive decline. And so Treasury Secretary Yellen was left to pick up the slack with a 0500ET interview on CNBC's Worldwide Exchange. The broad takeaway from her remarks: President Biden's two-party social-spending-climate plan and his "bipartisan" infrastructure plan will actually help lower inflation by reducing costs for households for key services like child-care, health care and other issues. Ultimately, she expects these pressures to subside by the second half of next year. “I don’t think that these investments will drive up inflation at all,” she told CNBC’s Sara Eisen during a live “Worldwide Exchange” interview. Months ago, Yellen was one of the first to warn about the looming inflationary beast. But now she's in charge of taming it, so of course her rhetoric has changed. Biden claimed during his White House address yesterday that "17 Nobel winning economists" had signed off on his framework, claiming it wouldn't push up inflation because it would be - more or less - be fully paid for by tax hikes while creating new economic opportunities. Right now, the bigger driver of inflation is the supply-side shocks like those unveiled by Apple during last night's earnings. "I think supply chain issues are holding our economy back somewhat...it will take a while to boost supply." @SecYellen discusses the impact of the supply chain crunch on the American and global economy, and tells @SaraEisen when to expect some relief: pic.twitter.com/yyzrsOSlmL — Worldwide Exchange (@CNBCWEX) October 29, 2021 Yellen renewed her push for White House spending plans that are unpopular with several factions of Congress and have yet to be approved. But even as the headline CPI number hits its highest level in 30 years, Yellen insisted that Biden's program would be a net benefit for workers. "It will boost the economy’s potential to grow, the economy’s supply potential, which tends to push inflation down, not up," she said. "For many American families experiencing inflation, seeing the prices of gas and other things that they buy rise, what this package will do is lower some of the most important costs, what they pay for health care, for child care. It’s anti-inflationary in that sense as well." The only problem with Yellen's worldview right now is that, as the holiday's approach, GDP is slowing because more than 100 ships are being left floating in a massive logjam making it nearly impossible for companies to obtain the goods they need ahead of the holiday season. As we noted the other day, economists from the American farm bureau warned that the US is headed for its expensive Thanksgiving ever. In effect, the reality of our current economy reflects the exact opposite of what Yellen says is coming just around the corner. "Not only has inflation risen, but growth also has decelerated. Due in large part to supply issues that have left dozens of ships stranded at U.S. ports, the pace of gross domestic product growth slowed to 2% in the third quarter, the slowest rate since the pandemic-induced recession ended in April 2020. Part of the administration’s G-20 agenda will be addressing its pet economic concerns, including the implementation of a global minimum for corporate taxes, as well as addressing climate change and the supply chain issues that have hampered growth and threaten to cut into holiday spending patterns. Yellen said she expects the supply chain issues "will be addressed over the medium term." She called the White House’s Build Back Better program "transformational" in addressing the economy’s needs as the nation seeks to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic. She insisted that the spending plans are "fully paid for" through tax proposals primarily aimed at higher earners and corporations. "I think it really helps us invest in physical capital. That’s public infrastructure that’s important to productivity growth," she said. "There’s investment in human capital, there’s investment in research and development, the support that families will receive that will help them participate in the labor market." As we quipped on twitter just a week ago, the nabobs running American fiscal and monetary policy have been slowly moving the goalposts vis-a-vis inflation since the start of the year, when Larry Summers first warned about the risks of rising inflation - prompting his fellow academics to response with a mix of derision and mockery. Big finance experts: Q1 2021: There is inflation, but it's transitory Q3 2021: Ok, inflation isn't transitory, but there is no stagflation Q1 2022: Ok, there is stagflation, but this time is different and we are definitely not in the 1970s — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 22, 2021 Now, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has revised the narrative once again: President Biden's massive spending plan won't stoke even more inflation (like other recent COVID-related stmulus plans have) because the Biden plan will help stoke economic growth by allowing more women to participate in the workforce while investing in "public infrastructure." She called the White House’s Build Back Better program “transformational” in addressing the economy’s needs as the nation seeks to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic. She insisted that the spending plans are “fully paid for” through tax proposals primarily aimed at higher earners and corporations. “I think it really helps us invest in physical capital. That’s public infrastructure that’s important to productivity growth,” she said. “There’s investment in human capital, there’s investment in research and development, the support that families will receive that will help them participate in the labor market.” In the end, she's hopeful that economic growth will accelerate and inflation will recede. But to claim that this is a certainty is magical thinking at best. Over the past few weeks, the debate surrounding the inherent "transitoriness of inflation" has become increasingly fierce, forcing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to tacitly signale to other senior Fed officials that the word "transitory" shouldn't be used during public remarks, even as  America's current inflationary issues, as the accelerating price pressures have already risen more quickly than the Fed had anticipated (something billionaire PTJ warned is the "biggest threat to society). Yellen said she Friday she expects inflation to ebb over time and return to its longer-run average around 2%, which tracks with the Fed's latest economic projections. The fact that it hasn't subsided as quickly as the Fed had hoped is simply a reflection of the fact that humanity is still caught in an unprecedented pandemic in a globalized world. "I think it’s still fair to use [‘transitory’] in the sense that even if it doesn’t mean a month or two, it means a little bit longer than that. I think it conveys that the pressures that we’re seeing are related to a unique shock to the economy," she said. "As the United States recovers and as vaccinations proceed globally, and the global economic activity revives, that pricing pressure will ease." To be sure, not every business has been harmed or frustrated by inflation. Take hotels, for instance, which have the luxury of re-setting their prices every night.  "If you look at the $3 trillion of incremental savings during COVID, there’s a long way to go to spend it all. Thank you Federal Reserve and the U.S. Congress for fiscal and monetary stimulus," said CEO Christopher Nassetta. But what we would like to know is why Yellen and other top officials at the Fed and elsewhere seem so blithe to throw away their reputations as sober-minded observers of the American economy. There was - not all that long ago - a time when Yellen spoke honestly about the inflationary threat. But now that this threat has apparently surpassed the Fed and Treasury's worst-case scenarios, the Bide Admin and its top economic officials have decided to return to magical thinking while Biden weighs deploying the National Guard to drive trucks laden with goods off boatss. Tyler Durden Fri, 10/29/2021 - 19:05.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 29th, 2021

Companies are looking at the value proposition of productivity, with the need to minimize burnout

Companies saw productivity increase throughout the pandemic, but employee burnout is an ongoing concern. Executives from McKinsey, Tradeshift, and ghSMART talk about how they have approached this with their teams. Human Impact of Business Transformation Insider The pandemic has changed how we work, not just where we work. Productivity has increased, but so have stress levels for teams. Companies are looking for a more balanced approach. Leaders from McKinsey & Company, Tradeshift, and ghSMART share their views on how their organizations are managing this shift. This article is part of a series on Insider's research on The Human Impact of Business Transformation. The pandemic has changed more than where we work; it's also required us to reassess how we work. In the early months, many companies saw an explosion of productivity from leaders and their teams. Time saved by no longer having to commute to work was redistributed to meetings and ongoing projects. Employees capitalized on existing technology, supplementing that with new tools that enabled them to stay on task while at home. But all of this had a side effect: suddenly, employees found themselves working far too much. The videoconferencing they came to rely on led to longer work days, and coupled with the lack of distinction between home and work, that resulted in burnout. Not only was the new normal unsustainable; it was unhealthy, too. Now, many companies are working to achieve "balanced" productivity growth -- and they're also reevaluating productivity as a measure of success. Our deep dive into the Human Impact of Business Transformation continues with a look at productivity, performance, and their place in the knowledge economy. Following, executives from McKinsey & Co, Tradeshift, and ghSMART share their stories of navigating these challenges. Elena Botelho, coauthor of New York Times bestseller "The CEO Next Door" and partner at leadership advisory firm, ghSMART Elena Botelho, partner at leadership advisory firm ghSMART ghSMART "It's a different time, a different team, and you really need to think about how you will move forward in the next context rather than come back to how it used to be."If you were to look at the pandemic as a whole, our team's productivity has absolutely gone up.we know we can all load ourselves up with Zoom meetings, whereas before I would've spent a day traveling for a one hour meeting. But the question is, what's the right balance for the future? Burnout is a felt experience...and the experience is driven by a lot of factors other than just the objective reality of hours of work. How connected and supported do you feel by your colleagues and your boss, regardless of whether it happens remotely or in person? What's your sense of purpose behind the work? There's also a lot of conversation about the return to the office. Surprisingly, even the most accomplished CEOs, CHROs, and leaders we work with focus almost entirely around the operational and logistical factors of return to office. Things like, "Do we allow hybrid working? What does that look like? Do we require vaccination? What about the lunchroom capacity?" et cetera. Operational pieces can be complex, but are still well within the comfort zone for many leaders — things you can tangibly assess and get your arms around. On the other hand, the emotional aspects of return to office aren't getting as much attention You really need to think about returning to office as a relaunch of your team. People had vastly different experiences through the pandemic…and have a wide range of very strong feelings about coming back to the office and the support they need to operate in the "new world".   Rik Kirkland, senior advisor, McKinsey & Company Rik Kirkland, senior advisor, McKinsey & Company McKinsey & Company "Productivity is hard to measure. We knew this going in. But it's only getting harder, because more and more of the economy is shifting into that squishy, soft, intangible knowledge-based world."We had a productivity measurement problem even before the pandemic. Classically-defined productivity is measured in the ways we always do it...basically, it's an output/input thing, and there's some measure of wealth. We have these debates about how you measure services, creative work, knowledge work, because the metrics are a lot squishier. I think one of the big problems is applying old "Taylorite" measures by default to knowledge work and creative work. We've learned we can do remarkable things without having to be in the office measuring you by how many hours you put in. And yet, a lot of leaders still default to, "Who's here late? Who got in early? Whose key card shows what they did?" One of the lessons we've learned from the pandemic is if we were moving toward flexibility before, human-centered productivity has to allow for massively more flexibility than the old model. If (employees) aren't able to flex to deal with what they need to, then your productivity is being mismeasured. Mikkel Hippe Brun, senior vice president, APAC, Tradeshift Mikkel Hippe Brun, senior vice president, APAC, Tradeshift Tradeshift "Productivity's about getting things done. Being effective is about getting the right things done."Is (productivity) outdated as a measure? In a sense I think it is...is it productive to be attending ten Zoom meetings in a day and not actually getting any real work done? When do you write that brief? When do you have time for yourself to think and develop your business? We have to think about what is effective work, and be mindful that during a workday effective work and productivity happens in bursts.Myself, I'm highly productive in the morning. You'll get less and less value out of my work as the day passes, and then into the night I'll start getting a new kick of adrenaline again, and I'll be productive because I don't have all the interruptions. We all have our own rhythm. So I think it's about optimizing for those bursts of productivity. We have to be so structured about how we organize our days and how we set expectations in the company as managers.Productivity is about more than output, particularly in a knowledge economy. Building and maintaining an effective workforce requires that you enable your employees to strike a sustainable balance between work and life. The payoff? Your team is free to tap into their creativity and efficiency on their own terms.  Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 29th, 2021

15 best yoga gifts for the yogi in your life, no matter their skill level or practice

Gift the yogi in your life something to help improve their practice, whether it's a new mat, some practice inspiration, or a pair of grippy socks. If you are a beginner, try taking an in-person yoga class as the instructor can help modify or correct poses. 10'000 Hours/Getty images When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more. The best way to shop for a yogi is to consider where they are in their practice and what they enjoy using. For the new yogi, consider basics like comfortable athletic wear or yoga props like blocks or mats. Below are 15 thoughtful yoga gifts for yogis of all skill levels, including Glo memberships and lululemon gift cards. Practicing yoga, and any of its many forms and disciplines, is one of the best ways to manage stress, improve flexibility, and calm your mind. A practice that dates back centuries, yoga originated in ancient India with roots that tie it to Hindusim, Buddhism, Jainism, and a host of other religions.Yoga today encompasses a variety of formats. This includes Bikram Yoga, which is colloquially referred to as "hot yoga," as well as others like Ashtanga or Vinyasa (which is considered the most popular form in the western world). If someone on your holiday list is an avid yogi, coming up with gift ideas beyond a yoga mat or a pair of leggings might be challenging; let's face it, they already have these in abundance. Sticking to the basics is a solid option when you're buying gifts for someone just beginning a yoga-friendly lifestyle but shopping for seasoned practitioners requires creativity.But don't fret, we've got you covered. To some, yoga is a spiritual, mindful practice and to others, it's their dedicated form of exercise. Whatever their connection, there's a gift for every yogi on your list.Here are 15 of the best yoga gifts for yogis of any skill level or discipline: Glo Glo Membership, available via Glo, from $18The Glo app offers yogis of all levels unlimited access to more than 4,000 classes taught by world-class instructors, on-demand whenever, wherever they're itching to get on the mat. Classes are recommended based on how long you have to practice (from 10 minutes on up to a full 60-minute session), your interests (yoga, Pilates, or mediation), and user favorites. You can even browse the app's library and choose classes however you see fit. Amazon SpunkySoul New Beginnings Bracelet Stack, available via Amazon, $19SpunkySoul wants to help yogis channel their positive energy on and off the mat with its Lotus New Beginnings bracelet collection, and after all 2020 has put us through, who couldn't use the good vibes? A lotus charm hangs from each stack of bracelets, representing "good fortune, positive energy, purity, eternity, creation, enlightenment, and new beginnings."All stacks also include a bracelet made from lava beads, which can be used as a diffuser: Just add a few drops of your favorite essential oils to one of the lava beads and let the blend create an aromatic accessory that's good for the soul. Saje Saje Yoga Grounding Diffuser Blend, available via Saje, $22If your yogi is just as obsessed with essential oils as they are with yoga, they'll love Saje's grounding diffuser blend. The aromatic combination of earthy patchouli, bright orange, peaceful neroli, spicy ho wood, and crisp champaca is said to promote feelings of gratitude and Zen. It's the perfect formula to have circulating whether you're on or off the mat. Amazon Ewedoos Yoga Mat Bag, available via Amazon, from $20Whether their studio classes are back in session, or their home yoga space could use some organization, this roomy bag from Ewedoos is a storage staple. Unlike other yoga bags that are only roomy enough to fit your mat and maybe a towel, the main compartment of the Ewedoos bag is spacious enough to hold a mat and accessories like straps or a yoga block.Plus, a water bottle and towel can go in the large side pocket, while a small interior zip compartment holds the essentials you'd usually keep in a purse, like your car keys, phone, or wallet. Amazon Yogi Bare Teddy mat, available via Amazon, $70The Teddy from Yogi Bare is a machine-washable yoga mat that helps take some of the tediousness out of keeping a mat clean — just throw it in the washer and that's it, it's clean. The mat is also great for anyone who likes to do hot yoga as it features a sweat-adaptive surface that won't get slippery when wet. Gifting a mat may not always seem like the best choice for a yogi but this one is the exception.  Lululemon/Facebook Lululemon Gift Card, available via lululemonNothing motivates me to exercise quite like a new pair of leggings, so if you're struggling to find the perfect gift for a yogi, I highly recommend treating them to a shopping spree at lululemon. The store is swarming with technical athletic wear geared toward yogis because the brand acknowledges the ways clothes can make or break your flow. The brand also designs clothes for different genders, so there's something for everyone. Amazon Ajna Yoga Bolster, available via Amazon, $70Though yoga bolsters are underrated accessories compared to blocks and straps, they're essential to restorative practices. Bolsters support and alleviate pressure on joints, provide lumbar relief, deepen stretches, and help the body achieve total relaxation in times of discomfort. They're also quite versatile and can be used in a range of practices or meditations, and even work off the mat when the body needs extra support.Ajna's yoga prop is an especially great pick because it's eco-friendly, made with 100% vegan materials, free of harmful chemicals or toxic solvents, and super comfortable. The bolster also comes in a range of colors, so you can give your yogi their favorite. Amazon The Yoga Sutras of Patanjali by Sri Swami Satchidananda, available via Amazon, $16There's so much more to yoga than poses named after animals and an Instagram-worthy aesthetic. Yoga is rooted in Ayurvedic beliefs, spiritual connections, and Indian philosophy. The Yoga Sutras of Patanjali offer readers a deep dive into some of these teachings, specifically those of Raja Yoga, which is the practice of concentration and meditation.The text is a compilation of valuable lessons from the yogic teachings on ethics, meditation, and physical postures, and also provides insight on how to cope through everyday situations both on and off the mat. Amazon AmazonBasics Foam Roller, available via Amazon, $11Foam rollers aren't typically grouped with yoga props but they can be extremely beneficial to a yogi's practice. Because yoga requires a lot of movement and fluidity from one pose to the next, your muscles need to be pliable; when they're restricted, so is your movement.Foam rollers help work out the kinks in your muscles, so they stay healthy and limber. They can be used pre-flow to warm the muscles, and post-flow as a recovery tool. Wayfair Delsanto Wall-Mounted Sports Rack, available via Wayfair, $25How and where one decides to practice looks different for almost every yogi. For anyone hopping on the mat at home, this storage display is a gift that helps make their space look and feel a little more special (and organized). Amazon Sunflower Home Foam Yoga Cushion, available via Amazon, $15As amazing as yoga is for the mind and body, it can also be extremely hard on the knees, wrists, and hands. Sunflower Home's miniature cushions help ease the strain by putting pressure off of these sensitive areas.They're made with eco-friendly PU foam, so they won't absorb much moisture (re: sweat) and are made extra thick for optimal support. The cushions are also multi-purpose and can be used off the mat anytime your joints require some relief. Urban Outfitters Calm Club Yoga Card Deck, available via Urban Outfitters, $18Pick a card, any card, then flow it out. This fun card deck from Calm Club is a compilation of 52 yoga poses — one for every week in the year. The idea is that yogis choose a card at random on a Monday and dedicate the week to incorporating the illustrated pose into their practice. By Sunday, they'll hopefully have mastered it (or, at the very least, are on their way to mastering it). Anthropologie Herban Essentials Yoga Towelettes,  available via Anthropologie, $16I don't wash my yoga mat near as much as I should, though I know I'm not the only one guilty of doing this. Do your yogi friend a favor and gift them these hygienic towelettes from Herban Essentials — they need them, I promise. Each single-use towelette is made from therapeutic-grade essential oils from organic fruits, herbs, and vegetables supplied by American farmers.They're also naturally antibacterial, antiseptic, aromatherapeutic, and leave a calming scent of lavender lingering on your mat so you're inhaling soothing fumes, not days-old sweat, Tavi Noir Tavi Noir Yoga Socks, availabe via Tavi Noir, $16Rather than a festive pair of socks, gift your yogi some cushy footwear with a little more grip this holiday season. Tavi Noir's grip socks are made of cozy cotton, are non-slip, and feature a compression arch band. Designed for yoga and Pilates, these socks do well to keep feet planted and firm on the mat. The best part is the brand is technically unisex in sizing and offers a variety of larger styles for anyone with larger feet. Amazon Yoga Poses Poster, available via Amazon, $25Spontaneity is the best way to spice up a routine, so if their practice is feeling a little stale, this yoga poses poster can help them shake things up on the mat. This poster serves as a fun way to progress in their training while also allowing them to track their progress.  Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytOct 28th, 2021

Futures Surge To All Time High As Earnings Supercharge Market Meltup

Futures Surge To All Time High As Earnings Supercharge Market Meltup The wall of worry that preoccupied traders just weeks ago has melted away, and has been replaced with a global market melt up (just as Goldman predicted again this weekend), which pushed US index futures to a new all time high this morning when spoos hit 4,580.75, while propelling European and Asian stocks higher as corporate earnings helped boost sentiment amid lingering concerns about inflation and growth. As of 715am ET, US equity futures were up 0.42% or 19.25 points, Dow Jones futures were up 126 points or 0.35% and Nasdaq futures jumped 0.61%, extending cash market gains boosted by Tesla’s rally to a $1 trillion market value on a big order and Facebook’s results announcement revealing strong user growth and a $50 billion stock buyback. 10-year Treasury yields dropped by 1 basis point while the dollar slid to session lows. Bitcoin traded around $63,000. The barrage of earnings reports continued on Tuesday morning, with United Parcel Service, General Electric and 3M all gaining in pre-market trading after strong results. Eli Lilly advanced after raising full-year forecasts. Bakkt shares jumped 36% in the U.S. premarket session after more than tripling Monday when Mastercard said it has inked a deal with the firm to help banks offer cryptocurrency rewards on their debit and credit cards.  Facebook also rose after pledging to buy back as much as $50 billion more in stock, with tech heavyweights Twitter, Alphabet and Microsoft reporting after the market close on Tuesday. Here are all the notable premarket movers: Facebook (FB US) rises as much as 2.5% in premarket as analysts stay bullish despite a third-quarter revenue miss and an outlook that was below consensus. Advertising growth is seen improving in 2022. Tesla (TSLA US) gains 1% after stock closed at a record high, boosted by several factors on Monday including a large car order from rental firm Hertz and Morgan Stanley lifting its price target. Creatd (CRTD US) was up 27% adding to a 50% gain over the past two trading sessions amid a rally in a growing number of retail-trader favorite stocks linked to former U.S. President Donald Trump. Redbox (RDBX US) rises as much as 130% after the firm completed a business combination with Seaport Global Acquisition, a special purpose acquisition company. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rise, with Eqonex (EQOS US), previously known as Diginex, more than doubling in value after listing Polkadot on its platform and Bakkt (BKKT US) extending Monday’s gains. Earnings season is helping to counter concerns that elevated inflation and tightening monetary policy will slow the recovery from the pandemic. Some 81% of S&P 500 members have reported better-than-expected results so far, though CitiGroup Inc. warned that profit growth may be close to peaking. Equity markets are “continuing their recovery and we expect this process to continue past big-tech earnings” and this week’s European Central Bank meeting, where policy makers may flag the end to their pandemic bond-buying program, Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds, wrote in a note. Still, some analysts voiced caution over the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply chains: “Even though this has been a good earnings season in aggregate we are starting to see more companies with supply backlogs, hiring difficulties, and rising input prices that are eating into profits,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote. The debate over price pressures continued when former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said officials are unlikely to deal with “inflation reality” successfully until it’s fully recognized. The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 50 countries, added 0.1% European shares hit the highest level in seven weeks: the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose more than 0.5% led by gains in travel stocks and insurers, and edging close to a the record high reached in September while German stocks gained 0.9%. Reckitt Benckiser gained more than 5% after the maker of Strepsils throat lozenges raised its sales forecast. Swiss lender UBS Group AG climbed after posting a surprise jump in profit, while Novartis AG advanced on news it may spin off its generic-drug unit. After a stellar quarter for U.S. and British banks, Switzerland’s UBS rose over 2% on its highest quarterly profit since 2015, helping the financial services sector climb about 1%. Earlier in the session, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index traded 0.3% higher in afternoon trading, paring an earlier gain of as much as 0.7% which pushed it to its highest level in six weeks.  Asian stocks rose as investors focused on encouraging earnings reports from some of the world’s biggest technology companies. The advance was driven by a subgauge of IT names including South Korean memory chipmaker SK Hynix, which climbed after reporting record sales and forecasting further demand growth. Japanese electronics giants Nidec Corp. and Canon Inc. reported results after Tuesday’s close. “The earnings season so far continues to meet investor expectations and assuage inflationary concerns,” said Justin Tang, head of Asianresearch at United First Partners. Tesla’s order from Hertz, good prospects for the $550 billion U.S. infrastructure bill and the latest talks between U.S. and China officials also helped “inject some risk appetite,” Tang said. Japan led gains among national benchmarks, with the Topix rising more than 1%. The market was helped by a local media report that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party may be able to win a majority of seats on its own in the general elections scheduled for next week. Key gauges in tech-heavy South Korea and Taiwan also jumped more than 0.5%, while benchmarks fell in Hong Kong and China. In China, Modern Land China Co. became the latest builder to miss a payment on a dollar bond, in a further sign of stress in the nation’s real estate sector. Defaults from Chinese borrowers on offshore bonds have jumped to a record. Japanese stocks advanced as investors looked toward earnings reports from major companies and political stability after the upcoming election. Electronics makers and telecommunications providers were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which gained 1.2%. Fast Retailing and Tokyo Electron were the largest contributors to a 1.8% rise in the Nikkei 225. Asian stocks and U.S. futures also rose, following the S&P 500’s climb to a record high, amid positive news from Tesla and Facebook. Japanese companies reporting results today include Canon, Nidec and Hitachi Construction Machinery.  Meanwhile, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party may be able to exceed a majority of 233 seats on its own in the general elections scheduled for Oct. 31, a poll conducted by Asahi showed. “There’s a lot of noise out there but for stocks, it’s about fundamentals, which are corporate earnings,” said Hiroshi Matsumoto, head of Japan investment at Pictet Asset Management. “We’re starting to see some pretty good earnings figures, so I’m thinking we’ll see the Nikkei 225 consolidate around the 29,000 level this week.” In rates, Treasuries were cheaper across front-end of the curve, fading a portion of Monday’s gains even as corporate earnings propel stock futures to new highs. The 10-year TSY yield is lower by less than 1bp at 1.622%; 2-year yields are cheaper by ~1bp on the day while long-end of the curve is richer by ~1.5bp, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by ~2bp. The TSY curve is flatter with long-end yields richer on the day, unwinding Monday’s steepening move. Treasury auction cycle begins with sale of 2-year notes, followed by 5- and 7-year offerings over next two days.  In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was mixed but slumped to session lows as US traders walked in. The pound led gains followed by other risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Sterling gained even as overnight index swaps show traders trimmed back bets for BOE tightening, pricing in 14 basis points of hikes in November, down from 15 points previously. The yen was the worst performer as demand for haven assets receded following talks between U.S. and Chinese officials on the economy and cooperation in which some incremental progress was made. The euro inched up after gyrating toward the $1.16 handle; the euro’s volatility skew flattened in the past two weeks, suggesting a rebound in the spot market. Given the latter has stalled at a key resistance area, risk reversals could show downside risks once again. The Turkish lira rallied the most in more than four months after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan dropped his demand for 10 Western ambassadors to be expelled from the country. China’s offshore yuan gained for a fourth straight day, lifted by a phone call between the U.S. and China on trade and economic issues. Overnight borrowing costs sunk to one-month lows after the central bank boosted cash injections into the financial system.  In commodities, WTI crude oil was steady around $84 a barrel and Brent traded above $86 as investors weighed the outlook for U.S. stockpiles and prospects for talks that may eventually help to revive an Iranian nuclear accord, allowing a pickup in crude exports. Gold held above $1,800 an ounce and Bitcoin hovered around $62,500. Looking at today's calendar, we get the August FHFA house price index, September new home sales, October Conference Board consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing index. In central banks, ECB’s Villeroy and de Cos will speak. In corporate earnings, we will get results from Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Texas Instruments, UPS, General Electric, UBS and Twitter Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,576.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 474.91 MXAP up 0.4% to 200.93 MXAPJ up 0.2% to 662.77 Nikkei up 1.8% to 29,106.01 Topix up 1.2% to 2,018.40 Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 26,038.27 Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,597.64 Sensex up 0.4% to 61,232.14 Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,443.42 Kospi up 0.9% to 3,049.08 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.12% Euro little changed at $1.1609 Brent Futures down 0.3% to $85.76/bbl Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,802.76 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.86 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Traders are wagering on rate hikes of as much as 158 basis points over the next year in countries including the U.K., New Zealand and South Korea amid soaring costs of living and commodity prices. Yet a flattening in yield curves -- historically seen as the market’s assessment of economic health -- indicates rising concern that such a rapid withdrawal of support will hurt the nascent recovery Financial markets have stubbornly ignored recent warnings from ECB policy makers including Chief Economist Philip Lane that they’re wrong to anticipate a rate hike at the end of next year. The task of persuading people otherwise will fall to President Christine Lagarde as she presents the Governing Council’s latest decision on Thursday A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were lifted by the tailwinds seen stateside, whereby the SPX and DJIA both notched fresh all-time-highs, although the NDX outperformed as Tesla shot past the USD 1000/shr mark and USD 1trl market cap milestone. US equity futures overnight drifted higher with the NQ narrowly outperforming its peers. European equity futures also posted mild gains. Back to APAC, the ASX 200 (+0.1%) was kept afloat by tech names as the sector saw tailwinds from the stateside performance. The Nikkei 225 (+1.8%) outperformed following the prior session’s underperformance, and as the JPY drifted lower during the session. The KOSPI (+0.9%) was also firmer with SK Hynix rising some 3% at the open as chip demand supported earnings. The Hang Seng (-0.4%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.3%) opened flat but the latter was initially underpinned following another chunky CNY 190bln net liquidity injection by the PBoC. The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index fell almost 5% in early trade, whilst Modern Land noted that it will not be able to meet payments and shares were halted until future notice. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid spillover selling from T-notes and Bund futures. Top Asian News MediaTek Sees 2021 Revenue Growing by 52%; 3Q Profit Beats UBS Going ‘Full Bull’ on China Despite Outflows, Growth Worry China’s IPO Flops Raise Red Flag Over Shares Pricing: ECM Watch Asian Stocks Rise as Investors Focus on Major Tech Earnings European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.6%) trade on a firmer footing after extending on the tentative gains seen at the cash open with the Stoxx 600 at its best level in around seven weeks. The APAC session saw some support via the tailwinds seen in the US after the SPX and DJIA both notched fresh all-time highs and the NDX outperformed and Tesla shot past the USD 1000/shr mark and USD 1trl market cap milestone. The Nikkei 225 (+1.7%) led gains in the region alongside a firmer JPY whilst the Shanghai Comp (-0.3%) was unable to benefit from another chunky liquidity injection by the PBoC. Stateside, futures are indicative of a firmer cash open with the NQ (+0.6%) continuing to outpace peers with Facebook +2.4% in pre-market trade post-results which saw the Co. announce a USD 50bln boost to its share buyback authorisation. From a macro perspective, with the Fed in its blackout period and events on Capitol Hill not providing much impetus for price action, the equity landscape will likely be dominated by earnings with the likes of Alphabet, Microsoft, General Electric, 3M, Visa, AMD and Twitter all due to report today. Earnings are also playing a pivotal role in Europe today with Reckitt (+6.4%) top of the FTSE 100 and supporting the Personal and Household Goods sector after Q3 results prompted the Co. to raise its sales outlook. UBS (+0.6%) is off best levels but still firmer on the session after reporting its highest quarterly profits in six years. Countering the upside from UBS in the Banking sector is Nordea (-4.0%) with shares weighed on by Sampo selling 162mlnn shares in the Co. to institutional investors. Novartis (+1.6%) shares are trading broadly inline with the market after opening gains were scaled back post-Q3 earnings which saw the Co. report a 10% increase in operating profits and announce a strategic review of its generic drug unit Sandoz. Telecoms are near the unchanged mark and unable to benefit from the broader gains seen across the region as Orange (-2.7%) acts as a drag on the sector after announcing a decline in Q3 earnings. Top European News UBS Going ‘Full Bull’ on China Despite Outflows, Growth Worry Adler Sells Real Estate Portfolio Valued at More Than EU1B Europe Gas Extends Gains With Weak Russian Flows, Norway Outages Latest Impact of Europe’s Energy Crisis is a Plunge in Trading In FX, the 94.000 level remains tantalisingly or agonisingly close, but elusive for the Dollar index, and it could simply be a psychological barrier as a breach would clear the way for a complete comeback from trough to 94.174 peak set last week. However, the Greenback has lost some yield attraction and the broad risk tone is bullish to dampen demand on safe-haven grounds, while chart resistance and option expiries are also preventing the Buck from staging a more pronounced rebound ahead of a busier US agenda including housing data, consumer confidence, several regional Fed surveys and the first slug of issuance in the form of Usd 60 bn 2 year notes. Back to the DXY, 93.965-795 encapsulates trade thus far, and the 21 DMA stands at 93.966 today, just 3 ticks shy of Monday’s high. AUD - In similar vein to its US counterpart, the Aussie is finding 0.7500 a tough round number to crack, convincingly, but Aud/Usd is deriving support from the ongoing recovery in industrial metals awaiting independent impetus via Q3 inflation data tomorrow. JPY/CHF - The Yen and Franc continue to lag their major peers and retreat further vs the Dollar, with the former now struggling to keep sight of the 114.00 handle even though hefty option expiries reside from 113.85 to the big figure (1 bn), and Usd/Jpy faces more at the 114.50 strike (1.1 bn), while the latter is sub-0.9200 and unwinding more gains relative to the Euro as the cross probes 1.0700. GBP/NZD - Conversely, Sterling remains primed for further attempts to extend gains beyond Fib resistance and breach 1.3800, while eyeing 0.8400 against the Euro irrespective of some UK bank research suggesting that BoE Governor Bailey may not back up recent hawkish words with a vote to hike rates at the November MPC. Elsewhere, the Kiwi is still hovering above 0.7150 and defending 1.0500 vs its Antipodean rival with a degree of traction via RBNZ Governor Orr warning that climate change could culminate in a lengthy phase of stronger inflation that needs a policy response. EUR/CAD - Both rather flat, as the Euro continues to pivot 1.1600 and rely on option expiry interest for underlying support (1.5 bn rolling off from the round number to 1.1610 today), but also anchored by the 21 DMA that aligns with the big figure, while the Loonie has lost its crude prop on the eve of the BoC, though should also receive protection from expiries at 1.2400 (1 bn) within a 1.2394-68 range. EM - The Try has reclaimed more lost ground to trade above 9.5000 vs the Usd on a mix of corrective price action and short covering rather than any real relief about Turkey’s latest rift with international partners given another blast from President Erdogan who said statements issued by ambassadors on Kavala target his country’s judiciary and sovereignty, adding that the Turkish judiciary does not take orders from anyone. On the flip-side, the Zar is softer alongside Gold and ongoing issues with SA power supply provided by Eskom. In commodities, WTI and Brent have been softer throughout the European morning dipping from the initially steady start to the APAC session after yesterday’s pressured; nonetheless, prices haven’t dipped too far from recent peaks. Newsflow for the complex and broadly has been sparse thus far as focus remains very much on earnings and events due later in the week. Specifically for energy, we had commentary from Russian Deputy PM Novak that he wants OPEC+ to stick to the agreement to increase production by 400k BPD at the November gathering, commentary which had little impact on crude at the time. Elsewhere, the weekly Private Inventory report is due later in the session and expectations are for a build of 1.7mln for the headline crude figure; for reference, both distillates and gasoline stocks are expected to post a draw. Moving to metals, spot gold and silver are pressured this morning with initial downside perhaps stemming from a short-lived resurgence in the USD; however, while the metals do have a negative bias, the magnitude of this – particularly in spot gold – is fairly minimal. Separately, base metals are softer with LME copper hindered and still shy of the 10k figure. Again, newsflow this morning has been limited but we did see a production update from Hochschild who confirmed FY21 production guidance of 360-370k gold-equivalent ounces after reporting that Q3 was the strongest period of the year, thus far. US Event Calendar 9am: Aug. S&P Case Shiller Composite-20 YoY, est. 20.00%, prior 19.95%; 9am: MoM SA, est. 1.50%, prior 1.55% 9am: Aug. FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 1.5%, prior 1.4% 10am: Oct. Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 108.2, prior 109.3 Present Situation, prior 143.4 Expectations, prior 86.6 10am: Oct. Richmond Fed Index, est. 5, prior -3 10am: Sept. New Home Sales, est. 758,000, prior 740,000; MoM, est. 2.5%, prior 1.5%;  DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap If you’ve never seen Lord of the Flies feel free to come round to our house where you’ll get a live performance that gets more authentic the longer this two week half-term holiday we’re in goes on. Yet again working is the safest option. We have the option to “purchase” extra holiday each year but I’m thinking of seeing if I can give some back and take the money instead. They are hard work when put into a room together for any period of time. It was not only the fighting that was the same as last week, markets were pretty similar yesterday too as we saw fresh equity highs alongside renewed multi-year highs in breakevens. There are a few subtle changes in company reporting trends though. Even though this has been a good earnings season in aggregate we are starting to see more companies with supply backlogs, hiring difficulties, and rising input prices that are eating into profits. Indeed yesterday saw a few consumer staples companies lower full year profit outlooks in their earnings releases. Nevertheless, major equity indices marched higher, with the small cap Russell 2000 (+0.93%) and Nasdaq composite (+0.90%) outperforming the S&P 500 (+0.47%). Consumer discretionary stocks were the clear outperformer, driven by news of Tesla (+12.66%) receiving a 100k car order from Hertz. Tesla’s big day saw it become the first automaker to cross 1 trillion dollar market cap and also drove the outperformance of the FANG index ahead of Facebook’s after hours earnings release. Speaking of which, Facebook missed revenue estimates but beat on earnings. Shares were slightly higher in after-hours trading, where they are betting big on virtual reality technology. Overnight in Asia, the Nikkei 225 (+1.75%) and the KOSPI (+0.61%) are outperforming the Hang Seng (-0.42%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.01%). The sentiment in China is being clouded by the news of another developer, Modern Land China Co., missing a payment on a $250 million dollar bond. This news came as Bloomberg reported that Chinese firms set a yearly record on offshore bond defaults. Another development in the region is that Hong Kong has pushed back against yesterday’s calls for an easing in its virus rules which the banks in particular were calling for. In geopolitics, China’s Vice Premier Liu He and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held a call about trade and economic concerns, boosting sentiment in Asian markets, while the S&P 500 mini futures (+0.24%) is trading higher. The yield on 10y Treasury (+0.7bps) is also up. In data releases, South Korean preliminary GDP for Q3 came in at +4.0% versus +4.3% expected, while Japan’s services PPI for September declined to +0.9%, missing estimates of +1.1%. Back to yesterday and in fixed income, as mentioned at the top inflation breakevens continued their march higher. In the US, 10-year Treasury breakevens (+2.7 bps) closed at 2.67%, just shy of their widest levels since 10-year TIPS began trading in 1997. 10yr nominal yields were -0.2 bps lower as real yields slipped -2.3bps to their lowest levels since mid-September. European breakevens kept pace, with 10-year German breakevens increasing +1.9bps to 1.93% and UK breakevens increasing +1.2 bps to 4.20%. As was the case with the US, real yields fell as nominal 10-year yields decreased across Europe. Bunds (-0.9bps), Gilts (-0.5bps), OATs (-1.1bps) and BTP (-3.4bps) yields all fell. Crude oil futures put in a mixed performance. Multiple OPEC+ members signaled they won’t increase supply at their upcoming meeting leading to gains in crude, yet the gains were short lived, as headlines noted that Iran and the EU will stage talks to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, paving a way for Iranian oil supply to return to the market. Brent futures finished +0.54% higher while WTI futures were unchanged. Natural gas prices were on a one-way track higher, however. US natural gas prices had their biggest one-day gain in a year, increasing +11.70%, on the back of a colder forecast for the upcoming winter as supply issues still abound. European and UK natural gas prices were only modestly higher by comparison, increasing +1.27% and +1.86%, respectively. European leaders are gathering in Luxembourg today for an emergency meeting on the energy crisis. European equities were almost unchanged, with the STOXX 600 (+0.07%) finishing with marginal gains with energy (+1.27%) leading. The German DAX (+0.36%) gained with the help of stronger IT (+1.76%) performance despite Ifo expectations (95.4) coming in below consensus (96.6). In other data releases, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index came at -0.13 versus 0.20 expected. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index (14.6), however, surprised on the upside by coming above expectations (6.0). Delivery times remained elevated in the survey, and a special question showed that labour supply issues got slightly worse. In virus news, Moderna reported that its vaccine showed a strong immune response for children from 6 to under 12 years old. Meanwhile, China announced in its initial guidelines that unvaccinated athletes at the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing would have to quarantine for 21 days, while Hong Kong was pressured by banks to relax its zero-COVID policy. In today’s data releases, August FHFA house price index, September new home sales, October Conference Board consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing index are due from the US. In central banks, ECB’s Villeroy and de Cos will speak. In corporate earnings, we will get results from Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Texas Instruments, UPS, General Electric, UBS and Twitter   Tyler Durden Tue, 10/26/2021 - 07:47.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 26th, 2021

Global shares gain as trillion-dollar Tesla brightens tech sector and commodities cool off

Elon Musk's electric carmaker joined the $1-trillion club ahead of more Big Tech earnings, while Cathie Wood said she believes inflation will cool. US politicians often place major bets on Wall Street. Angela Weiss/Getty Images US futures rise, with the Nasdaq 100 boosted by Tesla's surge to $1,000, with more Big Tech earnings due. Third-quarter earnings are coming in strong, helping dispel some concern around inflation. A fourth Chinese property firm has defaulted on its overseas debt, rattling regional markets. Global shares climbed on Tuesday, propelled by strong earnings, particularly across the technology sector, where shares in Tesla surged to record highs, that has helped soothe some of the deeper fears around a damaging spike in inflation over the longer term. S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures were up roughly 0.2%, while those on the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.5%, lifted by a burst of positive sentiment after Tesla secured a bulk order from rental car company Hertz, which pushed shares in the luxury electric vehicle maker past $1,000 - and into the $1 trillion valuation club. Facebook's third-quarter earnings were mixed, as the social media company missed revenue estimates, but beat on earnings - adding to an already robust earnings season across the tech sector. Microsoft, Twitter, and Google parent Alphabet all report later on Tuesday. Its shares were up 2.3% in Tuesday's premarket.The benchmark indices hit record highs the previous day, driven by more bumper earnings in a season in which 83.2% of companies have beaten expectations, according to Reuters. This outperformance is against a backdrop of bottlenecks across the global supply chain, along with a shortage of labor and raw materials have ignited inflationary pressures around the world in recent months."Even though this has been a good earnings season in aggregate we are starting to see more companies with supply backlogs, hiring difficulties, and rising input prices that are eating into profits," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said.Central bankers such as the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have insisted these pressures are temporary. And despite evidence to the contrary across the fixed-income markets, where gauges of investor inflation expectations are running at 16-year highs, some high-profile business leaders share the view of the policymakers to an extent.ARK invest boss Cathie Wood, one of 2020's most successful stock-pickers, said she believes the current inflationary pressures will soon subside. In a series of tweets on Monday, she laid out the three deflationary forces that will "overcome the supply chain-induced inflation," responding to Jack Dorsey less than 72 hours after the Twitter CEO sounded an alarm on rising prices.In Europe meanwhile, the major indices pushed higher, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.6%, London's FTSE 100 up 0.7% while Frankfurt's DAX gained 1.1%. Swiss lender UBS saw its strongest quarterly profits in six years in the three months to September, pushing its shares up 1.4% in Zurich. Asia markets painted a mixed picture after Modern Land, another Chinese property developer, missed a payment on its overseas debt, becoming the fourth such Chinese firm to do so, as ripples from the debt problems at Evergrande wash through the sector.Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.5%, while the Shanghai Composite lost 0.3%. Seoul's Kospi gained 1.2% and Tokyo's Nikkei rose 1.8%. "The Chinese housing sector continues to fall under the watchful eye of investors after Modern Land China Co. followed in Evergrande's footsteps in missing a payment on a dollar bond. Chinese defaults on offshore bonds are now at a record high," analysts at broker IG said in a daily note.A decline across major commodities such as crude oil, copper, coal and lumber soothed some of the concern over the persistence of inflation. Brent crude and WTI futures were last down between 0.2 and 0.3% ahead of key US inventory data, while lumber futures dropped 1.4% and London Metal Exchange copper futures fell around 1%. But so far this month, most raw material prices have been on a tear, with Chinese coal and UK natural gas up nearly 20%, and US gasoline up 10%. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 26th, 2021

Futures Rise Ahead Of Deluge Of Big Tech Earnings

Futures Rise Ahead Of Deluge Of Big Tech Earnings One day after Goldman doubled down on its call for a market meltup into year-end, futures on the Nasdaq 100 edged higher, while contracts on the S&P 500 were modestly higher on Monday, approaching record highs again as investors braced for a flood of earnings (164 of 500 S&P companies report this week) while weighing rising inflation concerns, Covid-19 risks and China’s deteriorating outlook (Goldman slashed China's 2022 GDP to 5.2% from 5.6% overnight). The FOMC enters quiet period ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, which means no Fed speakers as attention shifts to economic data and corporate earnings. At 745 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 3 points, or 0.01%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 4.25 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 36.25 points, or 0.25%. Bitcoin bounced back over $63,000 after sliding below $60,000 over the weekend, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose and the dollar also rose after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell flagged that inflation could stay higher for longer, fueling investor concern that sticky price increases may force policy makers to raise borrowing costs. Global markets have remained resilient despite risks from price pressures stoked by supply-chain bottlenecks and higher energy costs. On Sunday, Janet Yellen was among those counseling the inflation situation reflects temporary pain that will ease in the second half of 2022 even as Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey warned hyperinflation is coming. Investors are wary that tighter monetary policy to keep inflation in check will stir volatility “Inflation concerns will continue to dominate markets this year as the price of crude oil remains elevated,” while “the pandemic remains a central concern,” said Siobhan Redford, an analyst at FirstRand Bank Ltd. in Johannesburg. “This will add further complexity to the already difficult decisions facing policy makers around the world.” All of FAAMG - Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon.com - are set to report their results later this week. The companies shares, which collectively account for over 22% of the weighting in the S&P 500, were mixed in trading before the bell. Facebook shares fell in premarket trading, extending six weeks of declines, after Bloomberg reported that the social-media company is struggling to attract younger users and that employees are concerned over the spread of misinformation and hate speech on its platform. The company is scheduled to report quarterly results after the market closes. “After Snap got an Apple caught in its throat, markets will have an itchy trigger finger over the sell button if the social network says the same,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA. “Additionally, this week, it is a FAANG-sters paradise ... that decides whether the U.S. earnings season party continues, before the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) reasserts its dominance next week.” PayPal jumped 6.4% as the company said it wasn’t currently pursuing an acquisition of Pinterest, ending days of speculation over a potential $45 billion deal. Shares of Pinterest plunged 12.5%. Tesla gained 2.2% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the stock by a third, citing “extraordinary” sales growth. The stock then surged to new all time highs after Bloomberg reported that Hertz placed an order for 100,000 Teslas in the first step of an ambitious plan to electrify its rental-car fleet. Oil firms including Chevron Corp and Exxon Mobil rose about 0.5% each, tracking Brent crude prices to three-year high. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks gain in premarket trading as Bitcoin climbs back above the $63,000 per token level after slipping from its record high last week. Crypto-linked stocks that are climbing in premarket include Bakkt +6.6%, Hive Blockchain +3.9%, Hut 8 Mining +2.8%, Riot Blockchain +2.2%, MicroStrategy +2.3%, Marathon Digital +2.8%, Coinbase +1.9%, Silvergate +1.8%, Bit Digital +1.2% and Mogo +0.8% Strong earnings reports helped lift the S&P 500 and the Dow to record highs last week, with the benchmark index rising 5.5% so far in October to recoup all of the losses suffered last month.  However, market participants are looking beyond the impressive earnings numbers with a focus on how companies mitigate supply chain bottlenecks, labor shortages and inflationary pressures to sustain growth. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 34.8% year-on-year for the third quarter, according to data from Refinitiv. On the economic data front, readings on U.S. third-quarter GDP - the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, the core PCE price index and consumer confidence data will be released later this week. In Europe, mining companies and banks gained but the telecommunications and industrial goods and services sectors declined, leaving the Stoxx 600 index little changed. Banks rose on HSBC’s bright outlook. Spain’s Banco de Sabadell SA jumped more than 5% after rejecting an offer for its U.K. unit. Telecoms and industrials were the biggest losers. Volvo Car slashed its initial public offering by a fifth, making it the latest in a string of European companies to pull back from equity markets roiled by soaring energy costs and persistent supply chain delay. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Banca Monte dei Paschi slides as much as 9.5% after the Italian government and UniCredit ended talks over the sale of the lender. Exor shares gain as much as 5.6% in Milan trading to the highest level on record after a report that the Agnelli family’s holding co. revived talks with Covea for the sale of Exor’s reinsurance unit PartnerRe. Banco Sabadell jumps as much as 5.6% after it said it rejected an offer for its TSB Bank unit in the U.K. from Co-operative Bank. SSAB rises as much as 5.2% after the Swedish steelmaker posted 3Q earnings well above analysts expectations. Handelsbanken analyst Gustaf Schwerin said the figures were “very strong.” Weir Group rises as much as 3.7% after Exane BNP Paribas raised the stock to outperform. Analyst Bruno Gjani says the stock’s underperformance YTD provides a “compelling entry opportunity.” Darktrace drops as much as 26% after Peel Hunt initiated coverage of the cybersecurity firm with a sell rating and 473p price target that implies about 50% downside to Friday’s close. Nordic Semiconductor declines as much as 8.8% after ABG Sundal Collier downgraded to hold. German business morale deteriorated for the fourth month running in October as supply bottlenecks in manufacturing, a spike in energy prices and rising COVID-19 infections are slowing the pace of recovery in Europe’s largest economy from the pandemic. The Ifo institute said on Monday that its business climate index fell to 97.7 from an upwardly revised 98.9 in September. This was the lowest reading since April and undershot the 97.9 consensus forecast in a Reuters poll. “Supply problems are giving businesses headaches,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said, adding that capacity utilisation in manufacturing was falling. “Sand in the wheels of the German economy is hampering recovery.” The weaker-than-expected business sentiment survey was followed by a grim outlook from Germany’s central bank, which said in its monthly report that economic growth was likely to slow sharply in the fourth quarter. The Bundesbank added that full-year growth was now likely to be “significantly” below its 3.7% prediction made in June. Earlier in Asia, stocks dipped in Japan and were mixed in China, where the central bank boosted a daily liquidity injection and officials expanded a property-tax trial. Signs that it would take at least five years before authorities impose any nationwide property tax bolstered some industrial metals.  Asia-Pac equities kicked off the week with a downside bias as the region adopted a similar lead from Friday’s Wall Street session, although sentiment marginally improved. The ASX 200 (+0.3%) was kept afloat by its energy sector as oil prices drifted higher, whilst index heavyweight Telstra was boosted after partnering with the Australian government to acquire Digicel Pacific in USD 1.6bln deal - for which Telstra contributed only USD 270mln. The Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) opened lower by around 1% with Softbank and Fast Retailing the biggest losers, although the index initially trimmed losses as the JPY remained on the backfoot. The Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.8%) were mixed at the open, with the latter supported by a net PBoC injection of CNY 190bln, while the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (-2.9%) was pressured by reports China's State Council is to expand the property-tax reform trials to more areas. On the flip side, China Evergrande and Evergrande New Energy Vehicle opened higher after the chairman said the group is to complete its transition to the NEV industry from real estate within 10 years. Finally, 10yr JGBs trade subdued and in contrast to its US and German counterparts. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after earlier inching lower to touch the weakest level since Sept. 27; the greenback was mixed against its Group-of-10 peers with commodity currencies performing best, led by the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone. The euro hovered around $1.1650 even as German business confidence took another hit in October as global supply logjams damp momentum in the manufacturing-heavy economy. Ifo business confidence fell to 97.7 in October, from 98.9 in the prior month. The pound inched up, rising alongside other risk- sensitive Group-of-10 currencies, having trailed all its peers on Friday after Brexit risks reared their head late in the London session. A quiet week for U.K. data turns focus to the upcoming government budget. The Australian dollar rose against all its Group-of-10 peers, tracking commodity gains, with market sentiment also boosted by the People’s Bank of China’s move to inject additional cash into the banking system. The yen declined after rising for three consecutive days; Economists expect the BoJ to keep its policy rate unchanged Thursday. Turkey’s lira fell to a record low as the country’s latest diplomatic spat gave traders another reason to sell the struggling currency. Day traders in Japan have started trimming their bullish wagers on the Turkish lira, with forced liquidation a growing threat as the currency tumbles. In rates, Treasuries were under pressure again, with the yield curve steeper as US trading begins Monday. They’re retracing a portion of Friday’s swift flattening, which occurred after Fed Chair Powell said rising inflation rates would draw a response from the central bank. 5s30s curve is back to ~89bp vs Friday’s low 85bp, within half a basis point of the lowest level in more than a year. Long-end yields are higher by as much as 3bp, 10-year by 2.7bp at 1.66%, widening vs most developed-market yields; yields across the curve remain inside Friday’s ranges, which included higher 2- and 5-year yields since 1Q 2020. Curve-steepening advanced after an apparent wager via futures blocks. In commodities, Brent oil rallied above $86 a barrel after Saudi Arabia urged caution in boosting supply. Gold rose for a fifth day, the longest run of gains since July, as risks around higher-for-longer inflation bolstered the metal’s appeal. Facebook will report its third quarter results after the market today, followed by Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon later in the week.  On the economic data front, readings on U.S. third-quarter GDP - the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, the core PCE price index and consumer confidence data will be released later this week. Top Overnight News from Bloomberg S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,542.25 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 472.03 MXAP little changed at 200.13 MXAPJ up 0.1% to 661.46 Nikkei down 0.7% to 28,600.41 Topix down 0.3% to 1,995.42 Hang Seng Index little changed at 26,132.03 Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,609.86 Sensex up 0.4% to 61,038.76 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,441.00 Kospi up 0.5% to 3,020.54 Brent Futures up 0.7% to $86.14/bbl Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,800.45 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.10% to 93.55 Euro up 0.1% to $1.1655 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen defended Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s record on regulating the financial system, which has been a target of criticism from progressive Democrats arguing he shouldn’t get a new term. Yellen said she expects price increases to remain high through the first half of 2022, but rejected criticism that the U.S. risks losing control of inflation. Speaker Nancy Pelosi opened the door to Democrats using a special budget tool to raise the U.S. debt ceiling without the support of Senate Republicans, whose votes would otherwise be needed to end a filibuster on the increase. President Joe Biden and fellow Democrats are racing to reach agreement on a scaled-back version of his economic agenda, with a self-imposed deadline and his departure later this week for summits in Europe intensifying pressure on negotiations. Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann’s surprise announcement last week that he will leave on Dec. 31 has hit Berlin at a sensitive time, with Chancellor Angela Merkel currently running only a caretaker administration in the aftermath of an election whose outcome is likely to remove her CDU party from power. Some holders of an Evergrande bond on which the embattled developer had missed a coupon deadline last month received the interest before the end of a grace period Saturday, according to people familiar with the matter. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac equities kicked off the week with a downside bias as the region adopted a similar lead from Friday’s Wall Street session, although sentiment marginally improved with the region now mixed heading into the European open. US equity futures overnight opened trade with a mild negative tilt before drifting higher, with a broad-based performance experienced across the Stateside contracts, whilst European equity contracts are marginally firmer. Back to APAC, the ASX 200 (+0.3%) was kept afloat by its energy sector as oil prices drifted higher, whilst index heavyweight Telstra was boosted after partnering with the Australian government to acquire Digicel Pacific in USD 1.6bln deal - for which Telstra contributed only USD 270mln. The Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) opened lower by around 1% with Softbank and Fast Retailing the biggest losers, although the index initially trimmed losses as the JPY remained on the backfoot. The Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.8%) were mixed at the open, with the latter supported by a net PBoC injection of CNY 190bln, whilst the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (-2.9%) was pressured by reports China's State Council is to expand the property-tax reform trials to more areas. On the flip side, China Evergrande and Evergrande New Energy Vehicle opened higher after the chairman said the group is to complete its transition to the NEV industry from real estate within 10 years. Finally, 10yr JGBs trade subdued and in contrast to its US and German counterparts. Top Asian News Xi Takes Veiled Swipe at U.S. as China Marks 50 Years at UN Hong Kong Convicts Second Person Under National Security Law Gold Extends Gain as Inflation Risks and Virus Concerns Persist Amnesty to Quit Hong Kong Citing Fears Under Security Law A tentative start to the week for European equities (Stoxx 600 U/C) as stocks struggle to find direction. On the macro front, the latest IFO report from Germany was mixed, with commentary from IFO downbeat, noting that Germany's economy faces an uncomfortable autumn as supply chain problems were causing trouble for companies, and production capacities were falling. The overnight session was a mixed bag with the Shanghai Composite (+0.8%) supported by a liquidity injection from the PBoC whilst the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (-2.9%) was pressured by reports China's State Council is to expand the property-tax reform trials to more areas. Stateside, US futures are marginally firmer with newsflow in the US in part, focused on events on Capitol Hill with CNN reporting that the goal among Democratic leaders is to have a vote Wednesday or Thursday on the infrastructure package. Note, the Fed is currently observing its blackout period ahead of the November meeting. From an earnings perspective, large-cap tech earnings dominate the slate for the week with the likes of Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) all due to report. Back to Europe, sectors are somewhat mixed as Basic Resources is the marked outperformer amid upside in underlying commodity prices. It’s been a busy morning for the Banking sector as HSBC (+1%) reported a 74% increase in Q3 earnings, whilst Credit Suisse (+0.7%) is reportedly mulling the sale of its asset management unit. Less encouragingly for the sector, UniCredit (-0.5%) and BMPS (-3.2%) shares are lower after negations on a rescue plan for BMPS have ended without an agreement. Finally, Airbus (-1.2%) and Safran (-2.3%) sit at the foot of the CAC after reports suggesting that the CEO's of Avolon and AerCap have, in recent weeks, written to the Airbus CEO expressing their concerns that the market will not support Airbus' aggressive plans to increase the pace of production; subsequently, Airbus has rejected their proposal, according to sources. Top European News The Man Behind Erdogan’s Worst Spat With the West: QuickTake Weidmann Succession Suspense May Last for Weeks on Berlin Talks Cat Rock Capital Urges Just Eat Takeaway to Sell GrubHub European Gas Jumps Most in a Week as Russian Supplies Slump In FX, the Dollar is somewhat mixed vs major counterparts and the index is jobbing around 93.500 as a result in rather aimless fashion at the start of a typically quiet start to the new week awaiting fresh impetus or clearer direction that is highly unlikely to come from September’s national activity index or October’s Dallas Fed business survey. Instead, the Greenback appears to be reliant on overall risk sentiment, US Treasury yields on an outright and relative basis along with moves elsewhere and technical impulses as the DXY roams within a 93.775-483 range. TRY - Lira losses continue to stack up, and the latest swoon to circa 9.8545 against the Buck came on the back of Turkish President Erdogan’s decision to declare 10 ambassadors persona non grata status due to their countries’ support for a jailed activist, including diplomats from the US, France and Germany. However, Usd/Try has actually pared some gains irrespective of a deterioration in manufacturing confidence and this may be partly psychological given that 10.0000 is looming with little in the way of chart resistance ahead of the big round number. AUD/NZD - Iron ore prices are helping the Aussie overcome rather mixed news on the COVID-19 front, as the state of Victoria is on course to open up further from Friday, but new cases in NSW rose by almost 300 for the second consecutive day on Sunday. Nevertheless, Aud/Usd has had another look at offers around 0.7500 and Aud/Nzd is approaching 1.0500 even though Westpac sees near term downside prospects for the cross while maintaining its 1.0600 year end projection, as Nzd/Usd continues to encounter resistance and supply into 0.7200. GBP/CAD - Sterling has regrouped after losing some of its hawkish BoE momentum and perhaps the Pound is benefiting from the latest rebound in Brent prices towards Usd 86.50/br on top of reports that the first round of talks between the UK and EU on NI Protocol were constructive, while the Loonie is up alongside WTI that has been adobe Usd 84.50 and awaiting the BoC on Wednesday. Cable is around 1.3750 after fading into 1.3800, Eur/Gbp is hovering above 0.8450 and Usd/Cad is pivoting 1.2350. EUR/JPY/CHF - The Euro has bounced from the lower half of 1.1600-1.1700 parameters and looks enshrined by a key Fib just beyond the current high (1.1670 represents a 38.2% retracement of the reversal from September peak to October trough) and decent option expiry interest under the low (1 bn between 1.1615-00), with little fundamental direction coming from a very inconclusive German Ifo survey - see 9.00BST post on the Headline Feed for the main metrics and accompanying comments from the institute. Elsewhere, the Yen is hedging bets prior to the BoJ within a 113.83-42 band against the Dollar and the Franc seems to have taken heed of another rise in weekly Swiss sight deposits at domestic banks as Usd/Chf climbs from circa 0.9150 towards 0.9200 and Eur/Chf trades nearer the top of a 1.0692-65 corridor. SCANDI/EM/PM - Firm oil prices are also underpinning the Nok, Rub and Mxn to various extents, while the Zar looks content with Gold’s advance on Usd 1800/oz and the Cnh/Cny have derived traction via a firmer onshore PBoC midpoint fix, a net Yuan 190 bn 7 day liquidity injection and the fact that China’s Evergrande has restarted work on more than 10 projects having made more interest payments on bonds in time to meet 30 day grace period deadlines. In commodities, a modestly firmer start to the week for the crude complex though action has been contained and rangebound throughout the European session after a modest grinding bid was seen in APAC hours. Currently, the benchmarks post upside of circa USD 0.30/bbl amid relatively minimal newsflow. The most pertinent update to watch stems from China, where the National Health Commission spokesperson said China's current COVID outbreak covers 11 provinces and expects the number of new cases to keep rising; additionally, the number of affected provinces could increase. Separately, but on COVID, they are some reports that the UK Government is paving the wat for ‘plan B’ measures in England, while this are primarily ‘softer’ restrictions a return of work-from-home guidance could hamper the demand-side of the equation. Note, further reports indicate this is not on the cards for this week and there are some indications that we could see, if necessary, such an announcement after the COP26 summit in Scotland ends on November 12th. Elsewhere, and commentary to keep an eye on for alterations given the above factors, Goldman Sachs writes that the persistence of the global oil demand recovery being on course to hit pre-COVID levels would present an upside risk to its end-2021 USD 90/bbl Brent price target. Moving to metals, spot gold and silver are firmer but reside within tight ranges of just over USD 10/oz in gold, for instance. In a similar vein to crude, newsflow explicitly for metals has been minimal but it is of course attentive to the COVID-19 situation while coal futures were hampered overnight as China’s State Planner announced it is to increase credit supervision in the area. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.20, prior 0.29 10:30am: Oct. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 6.2, prior 4.6 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Well I saw Frozen twice this weekend. Once in the flesh up in London in the musical version and once on TV on Sunday at the heart of Manchester United’s defence which was breached 5 (five) times by Liverpool without reply. Regular readers can guess which I enjoyed the most. Anyway I’ll let it go for now and prepare myself for a bumper week ahead for markets. This week we have decisions from the ECB and the Bank of Japan (both Thursday) even if the Fed will be on mute as they hit their blackout period ahead of the likely taper decision next week. Inflation will obviously remain in the spotlight too as we get the October flash estimate for the Euro Area (Friday) with some regional numbers like German (Thursday) before. In addition, the Q3 earnings season will ramp up further, with 165 companies in the S&P 500 reporting, including Facebook (today), Microsoft, and Alphabet (both tomorrow), and Apple and Amazon (Thursday). Elsewhere, the UK government will be announcing their latest budget and spending review (Wednesday), Covid will remain in the headlines in light of the growing number of cases in many countries, and we’ll get the first look at Q3 GDP growth in the US (Thursday) and the Euro Area (Friday). Starting with those central bank meetings, we’re about to enter a couple of important weeks with the ECB and BoJ meeting this week, before the Fed and the BoE follow the week after. Market anticipation is much higher for the latter two though. So by comparison, the ECB and the BoJ are likely to be somewhat quieter, and our European economists write in their preview (link here) that this Governing Council meeting is likely to be a staging ground ahead of wide-ranging policy decisions in December, and will therefore be about tone and expectations management. One thing to keep an eye on in particular will be what is said about the recent surge in natural gas prices, as well as if ECB President Lagarde challenges the market pricing on liftoff as inconsistent with their inflation forecasts and new rates guidance. 5yr5yr Euro inflation swaps hit 2% for the first time on Friday so if the market is to be believed the ECB has achieved long-term success in hitting its mandate. With regards to the meeting, we think there’ll be more action in December where our economists’ baseline is that there’ll be confirmation that PEPP purchases will end in March 2022. See the BoJ preview here. Inflation will remain heavily in focus for markets over the week ahead, with recent days having seen investor expectations of future inflation rise to fresh multi-year highs. See the week in review at the end for more details. This week one of the main highlights will be the flash Euro Area CPI reading for October, which is out on Friday. Last month, CPI rose to 3.4%, which is the highest inflation has been since 2008, and this time around our economists are expecting a further increase in the measure to 3.8%. However, their latest forecast update (link here) expects that we’ll see the peak of 3.9% in November, before inflation starts to head back down again. The other main data highlight will come from the Q3 GDP figures, with releases for both the US and the Euro Area. For the US on Thursday the Atlanta Fed tracker has now hit a low of only +0.53%. DB is at 2.3% with consensus at 2.8%. Earnings season really ramps up this week, with the highlights including some of the megacap tech firms, and a total of 165 companies in the S&P 500 will be reporting. Among the firms to watch out for include Facebook and HSBC today. Then tomorrow, we’ll hear from Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Texas Instruments, UPS, General Electric, UBS and Twitter. On Wednesday, releases will include Thermo Fisher Scientific, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Boeing, General Motors, Santander and Ford. Thursday then sees reports from Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Comcast, Merck, Royal Dutch Shell, Linde, Volkswagen, Starbucks, Sanofi, Caterpillar, Lloyds Banking Group and Samsung. Finally on Friday, we’ll hear from ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Charter Communications, Daimler, BNP Paribas, Aon and NatWest Group. Here in the UK, the main highlight next week will be the government’s Autumn Budget on Wednesday, with the Office for Budget Responsibility also set to release their latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook alongside that. In addition to the budget, the government will also be outlining the latest Spending Review, which will cover public spending priorities over the next 3 years. Our UK economists have released a preview of the event (link here), where they write that 2021-22 borrowing is expected to be revised down by £60bn, and they expect day-to-day spending will follow the path set out at the Spring Budget. They’re also expecting Chancellor Sunak will outline new fiscal rules. Finally, the pandemic is gaining increasing attention from investors again, with a number of countries having moved to toughen up restrictions in light of rising cases. This week, something to look out for will be the US FDA’s advisory committee meeting tomorrow, where they’ll be discussing Pfizer’s request for an emergency use authorization for its vaccine on 5-11 year olds. The CDC’s advisory committee is then holding a meeting on November 2 and 3 the following week, and the White House have said that if it’s authorised then the vaccine would be made available at over 25,000 paediatricians’ offices and other primary care sites, as well as in pharmacies, and school and community-based clinics. The full day by day calendar is at the end as usual. Asian markets are mixed this morning so far, as the Shanghai Composite (+0.38%), Hang Seng (+0.09%) and the KOSPI (+0.30%) are edging higher, while the Nikkei (-0.85%) is down. The rise in Chinese markets comes despite the news of 38 new COVID-19 cases as well as an announcement of a lockdown affecting around 35,700 residents of a county in Inner Mongolia. As China is one of the last countries in the world to still adhere to strict containment measures, a major outbreak can deal a fresh blow to the domestic economy and further reinforce global supply chain issues. Elsewhere the Turkish Lira hit fresh record lows, and is down around -1.5% as we type after last week’s surprise interest rate cut and Saturday’s news that ambassadors from 10 countries, including the US, Germany and France, were no longer welcome in the country. S&P 500 futures (+0.06%) are around unchanged and 10yr US Treasury yields are back up c.1bp. Looking back on an eventful week now, and there was a marked increase in inflation expectations, which manifested itself in global breakevens hitting multi-year, if not all-time, highs. Starting with the all-time highs, US 5-year breakevens increased +14.9bps (-1.0bps Friday) to 2.90%, the highest level since 5-year TIPS have started trading, while 10-year breakevens increased +7.5bps (-0.7bps Friday) to 2.64%, their highest readings since 2005. 10-year breakevens in Germany increased +9.5 bps (+3.6bps Friday) to 1.91%, their highest since 2011, while in the UK 10-year breakevens increased +17.1 bps (+4.0bps Friday) to 4.19%, the highest level since 1996. Remarkable as these levels are, 5-year 5-year inflation swaps in the US, UK, and Euro Area finished the week at 2.63%, 4.00%, and 2.00%, multi-year highs for all of these measures. If you never thought you’d see the day that long term inflation expectations in Europe would hit 2% then this is a nice/nasty surprise. Overall, this suggests investors are pricing in the potential for inflation far into the future to be higher, in addition to responding to near-term stimulus and Covid reopening impacts. Crude oil prices also climbed to their highest levels since 2014, with Brent climbing +1.07% (+1.37% Friday) and WTI gaining +2.07% (+1.79% Friday). One area where there was some reprieve was in industrial metals. Copper decreased -4.81% (-1.24% Friday), but at $449.80, remains +10.10% higher month-to-date. Bitcoin also joined the all-time high club intraweek, and finished the week +2.28% higher (-3.08% Friday). It marked a seminal week for the crypto asset, which saw ETFs and options on said ETFs begin trading in the US. The inflationary sentiment coincided with market pricing of central bank rate hikes shifting earlier. 2-year yields in the US, UK, and Germany increased +5.9 bps (+0.1bps Friday), +8.0 bps (-4.7 bps Friday), and +4.0 bps (+0.9bps Friday) respectively. In fact, money markets are now placing slightly-better-than even odds that the MPC will raise Bank Rate as early as next week. Fed and ECB officials offered some push back against the aggressive policy path repricing, but BoE speakers seemed to confirm a hike next week was a legitimate possibility. Rounding out sovereign bonds, nominal 10-year yields increased +6.2 bps (-6.9bps Friday) in the US, +4.0 bps (-5.6bps Friday) in the UK, +6.2 bps (-0.3 bps Friday) in Germany, +6.0 bps (-0.1bpFriday) in France, and +8.1 bps (+0.8bps Friday) in Italy. Inflation expectations didn’t fall with the big rally in the US and U.K. but real rates rallied hard. The S&P 500 increased +1.64% over the week, but ended its 7-day winning streak after retreating on -0.11% Friday. On earnings, 117 S&P 500 companies have now reported third quarter earnings. Roughly 85% of companies have beat earnings expectations compared to the five-year average of 76%, while 74% of reporting companies have beat sales estimates. The aggregate earnings surprise is +13.05%, topping the 5-year average of +8.4%, while the sales surprise is +2.06%. Although a seemingly strong performance on the surface, our equity team, after taking a look under the hood in this note here, points out that a large part of the beats so far is due to loan-loss reserve releases by banks. Excluding those, the aggregate S&P 500 beat is running much closer to historical average, suggesting the headline beats have not been as broad based as they look at first glance. Congressional Democrats spent the week negotiating the next fiscal package, which is set to spend more than $1 trillion on social priorities key to the Biden administration. On Sunday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi noted that 90% of the bill is agreed to and would be voted on before October was out. One of the key sticking points has been what offsetting revenue raising measures should be included in the final bill. As those details emerge, it should give us a better picture as to the ultimate additional fiscal impulse the new bill will provide. Finally, global services PMIs out last Friday expanded while manufacturing PMIs lagged. Readings across jurisdictions were consistent with supply chain issues continuing to impact activity. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/25/2021 - 08:09.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 25th, 2021

What the Labor Movement Needs to Keep ‘Striketober’ Going, According to New AFL-CIO Leader Liz Shuler

(To receive weekly emails of conversations with the world’s top CEOs and business decisionmakers, click here.) As a burgeoning labor shortage precipitated 10 million job openings and millions of Americans voluntarily leaving their jobs in August, AFL-CIO Secretary-Treasurer Liz Shuler was handed an extraordinary job at the nation’s largest labor union federation: Running it. She… (To receive weekly emails of conversations with the world’s top CEOs and business decisionmakers, click here.) As a burgeoning labor shortage precipitated 10 million job openings and millions of Americans voluntarily leaving their jobs in August, AFL-CIO Secretary-Treasurer Liz Shuler was handed an extraordinary job at the nation’s largest labor union federation: Running it. She was elected to fill the shoes of former AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka, a beloved third-generation coal miner who cemented strong ties with the last two Democratic Presidents and with the federation’s roughly 12.5 million members between 2009 and his unexpected death from a heart attack in August. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] Shuler wasn’t merely taking the reins during a once-in-a-century pandemic, but also in the midst of a revolutionary inflection point, where workers are emboldened by nationwide labor shortages to exact better wages, hours and general working conditions from their employers. As a record-breaking 4.3 million laborers voluntarily quit, swaths more decided not to resign for better opportunities elsewhere—but to strike for them at their current jobs. Tens of thousands of cameramen, makeup artists, lighting technicians and other behind-the-scenes television show professionals represented by the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees (IATSE) have threatened to strike for bigger profit shares from the streaming boom and more humane hours, in an effort that could result in the largest coordinated labor action in Hollywood since World War II. More than 10,000 United Auto Workers members from 14 John Deere facilities have walked off their job sites after rejecting the agricultural behemoth’s latest union contract offer. Over 14,000 workers from cereal giant Kellogg’s have been picketing for weeks over what they call an unfair, two-tier system of benefits. Meanwhile, more than 20,000 Kaiser Permanente employees authorized a strike earlier this month, and thousands more Nabisco workers recently returned to work after successfully striking for higher pay. “They’ve had enough,” Shuler says of the season, which many have dubbed “Striketober.” But as ripe as the current labor market conditions are for successful strikes, the current moment is also a critical juncture for the future existence of the very labor unions that make such revolts possible. Private sector union membership has fallen from roughly 32% in 1960 to 6% today, and stands to decline even more as older generations—who are more likely than younger ones to be in unions—near retirement age. “This is the challenge of our time. Something like 10,000 people a day are retiring,” Shuler says, “and that silver tsunami is about to hit us.” Shuler spoke with TIME about what the workers participating in this historic wave of strikes are fighting for, how union membership can help them get it, and what the AFL-CIO is doing to bolster its ranks—especially with young people—to preserve its collective bargaining power in the decades to come. (This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.) It’s Striketober! Tens of thousands of workers have voted to authorize strikes in recent weeks, building on a year of extraordinary labor activism. A strike database from Cornell University shows more than 250 strikes have taken place since the start of this year. As the brand new chief of one of the biggest unions in the country, how do you capitalize on this momentum? I’m glad you actually started from the beginning, because this is a moment in time, but it’s been building for a while. And everywhere we go, every person we talk to on those picket lines are just fed up. I think if you could sum it up, it’s just that they’ve had enough. We have over 30 strikes happening right now. Around 100,000 workers are either on strike or have authorized a strike at this moment, and so it’s the culmination of going through this pandemic, where workers were told they were essential, and now are being treated as expendable. They’ve sacrificed so much, and then now are faced with takeaways, and a basic lack of respect and recognition. And so it’s both economic forces at play here with a broken economic system—wages have been flat for so long—and the growing gulf that we’re seeing in the economy, but also just the recognition, the basic respect of being able to come to a workplace, have a decent paying job, have safety protections from a pandemic, and be able to return home safely at night back to their families. But at the same time, overall union membership is still roughly half of what it was in the 1980s. Do you think that this current wave of labor activism marks an inflection point of a possible union resurgence? Yes, the answer is absolutely yes. And if anything, working people in the country are now seeing the labor movement in a different way, we’re more relevant than we’ve ever been before. We’re more popular than we’ve ever been. You probably have seen the recent polling—68% of the public supports unions, 77% of young people [do]. They see unions fighting for change, and they see us out there fighting for better jobs. And so we do believe this is a moment where working people are feeling their power, and they’re ready to take risks and stand up more than ever before, because they’ve been the victims of a broken economic system for far too long. And we do have a shortage of good paying sustainable jobs that give people a fair share of the wealth that they’re helping create. They’re seeing CEOs being paid, like, 351 times what the average worker is making in the economy today. We just had a meeting this morning to talk about what we can do as a labor movement to bring more solidarity and support and unity to these fights, and the full breadth and power of labor movements to bear here because this is about our future. This is about preserving the middle class, and fighting back against rollbacks that are taking us back to times where we were fighting for the weekend. And in fact, in 2021, you saw the IATSE that was about to go on strike, they were fighting for meal and rest breaks, to not have to go to work after clocking out on a Friday night and then returning to work Saturday morning, less than eight hours later. So these are basic things that we’ve been fighting for for decades, that we should be far beyond in the year 2021. Read more: U.S. Workers Are Realizing It’s the Perfect Time to Go on Strike It’s also quite a moment for you individually. What has the transition to President of AFL-CIO been like for you in the wake of Richard Trumka’s unexpected death? It’s been exactly 60 days since I was elected. And it has been quite a responsibility to both step into some big shoes and to really keep this labor movement moving forward. Because we have such an opportunity in front of us, we can’t miss a beat. We’ve got this opportunity in Congress with all the investment that is poised to pass and create millions of good, well-paying jobs. And we have workers out in the streets, taking risks and looking for change, looking for hope. And the public sentiment is with us. I think that the labor movement can be the place where working people chart a path for a new future. A bold, dynamic, inclusive labor movement is going to be the path to that change. So we want to show every working person that they have a place in the labor movement, and that we are dynamic and relevant and are ready to meet the moment for this very diverse and changing work workforce, but also the economy that’s changing around us. When you were elected to replace Trumka, you said you were “humbled, honored and ready to guide this federation forward.” What does moving the union forward mean in real terms? Is it about becoming more accessible to young people, or ramping up social media outreach more? All of those things, yes. Of course, appealing to that next generation to show them that they can see themselves in our labor movement and rising into leadership, making the change that they want in their workplaces and using the labor movement as a vehicle for that change. To show women and people of color, who were in the emerging sectors of the economy that are growing that the labor movement is a place for them and that we make the difference in workplaces and close pay gaps for women and for people of color. And that as technology is changing our workplaces and disrupting the business model, we would be the place to have a voice and a seat at the table for working people to negotiate that change, and to not be sitting back waiting for it to happen. So we think the labor movement is the place where [we can manage] the big workplace changes that are on the horizon, but also the policy changes on Capitol Hill, and then to unleash unprecedented organizing, because the bottom line is we need to grow the labor movement, and represent more people to have more strength and to make that voice even louder. And especially with young people, the marquee of millennials and Gen Z is collaboration—they’re very civic-minded. They’re used to coming together and working in teams. That just naturally translates to the labor movement. We’ve seen some extraordinary grassroots movements take center stage in recent years, such as the global school strikes led by Greta Thunberg for climate activism and the nationwide Black Lives Matter protests after George Floyd’s murder. Is AFL-CIO taking inspiration from those movements? Are there any other movements that AFL-CIO is learning from? Yes, and in fact, many of our members are either at the front leading or very much active in those movements. Our headquarters is on what’s now called Black Lives Matter Plaza. And I remember coming down many times to join those protests and walk the streets, not only in DC, but in different parts of the country. And so we are learning from those movements, because they’re very dynamic. They’re led by young people, and we have so much in common, so it makes sense for us to be joining forces. In the labor movement, we have a network of state AFL-CIO [and] city level AFL-CIO bodies in over 400 cities that can actually make activism happen. Often, we work collaboratively with these various movements and partners and allies to make the change that so many of us are hungry for. We saw the Netflix walkout. And in the past, Google walkouts over sexual harassment. These are all workplace issues. Our job is to connect the dots—the change that people are hungry for can happen more effectively through the labor movement, because we have a permanence about our structure that really doesn’t happen anywhere else. When you walk out for a day, and then you go back to work the next day, it becomes very clear that it’s not sustainable unless you have a union that gives you the legal standing to sit across a table from the employers and demand change and actually have a mechanism to enforce the policies and bargain the change that you want to see. We’re seeing a lot of young people that are using collective bargaining as a tool for non-traditional subjects of bargaining, like the carbon footprint: You raised Greta. This is something that the labor movement has front and center where there are workers who are sitting down at the table saying, ‘What can we do as an organization as a company to address climate change more forcefully as an organization?’ A lot of people don’t understand collective bargaining. It is essentially that give-and-take process with an employer to negotiate, of course, better pay and benefits and working conditions, but also some of the social issues, [such as] civil and human rights; diversity, equity, inclusion; climate change and sexual harassment. These are some of the things that folks in our society and our economy care deeply about, but they don’t necessarily see unions as the path forward. That’s our challenge is to make that case to more working people outside of unions to see us as the path forward. Union membership rates continue to be highest among workers who are 45 to 64, and much lower among the younger generations. What can AFL-CIO—and unions more generally—do to recruit and retain the younger Americans? This is the challenge of our time, something like 10,000 people a day are retiring. And that silver tsunami is about to hit us. We are very much being intentional about engaging our young members. I think having young people in leadership helps show other young people that this labor movement is modern, and dynamic, and is interested in caring about the things they care about. When I first came to the AFL-CIO, we launched our Next Step program, which is our young worker program, and put together a pretty bold initiative to address economic issues that matter to young people. We [also] created a network of young worker organizations across the country at every central labor council in our network, so that young unionists could work with young activists on the ground in their communities to fight for change. We also started young worker groups at our affiliate unions so that within each union, they are looking at investing in young people, leadership training, making sure that we’re not just waiting around for years and years so that leaders are paying their dues and [saying], ‘You can’t lead until you’ve been here for 10 or 15 years.’ That’s not the case. Most of the young leaders that we have invested in during our Next Step program are actually now either on executive boards of their unions or running for political office, running for union office. That investment pays off because you invest early and then certainly those young people will be landing in positions of authority and power. We need to make sure that we’re doing the succession planning for our movement. Age aside, private sector union membership is still at its slowest rate in a century. The PRO Act, while it passed in the House with a little bit of Republican support, doesn’t seem likely to pass in the Senate, and some of the country’s largest companies—especially Amazon—continue to successfully squash unionization attempts. Despite these challenges, what is giving you hope that this is a potential turning point? When I walk the picket line with bakery workers and I see their determination, their tenacity, their courage, that’s what gives me hope. This is a moment. I think the PRO Act, of course, is very much needed legislation, because our labor laws are so broken in this country that it takes an act of absolute heroism to stand up and face down Goliath. That these companies are so powerful, they’ll throw millions of dollars to bust the unions, hire union busting consultants, they actually have a playbook that they operate from. And you saw it alive and well at Amazon, where they would go to no end to intimidate, harass, discriminate [against], bully, [and] fire workers who want to form a union. So we’re going to keep fighting for the PRO Act. But we’re also going to look for opportunities to get meaningful reforms in other vehicles that are moving. We want to make sure that the penalties for employers who break the law are meaningful. We’re working to try to make sure that gets passed in reconciliation. Read more: How Amazon Won the Preliminary Union Vote in Alabama A striking Kellogg’s employee of local 50G in Omaha likened Striketober to a second industrial revolution, citing record profits some companies are seeing but not passing down to their employees and the increasing wealth gap. Would you agree with his assessment? There’s no doubt that our economy is broken. He is absolutely right, that this is our chance to get it right—to invest in workers and to right the ship. This is unsustainable. Wages have been flat for over 30 years. Costs continue to go up. Health care gets more expensive. People have barely any retirement savings to rely on. The only way we can remedy that is to make a choice as a country that we are going to invest in the people that make this country hum. Certainly the essential workers throughout this pandemic are Exhibit A for why that’s important. Only by coming together collectively can we balance the scales of the economy and fight for the dignity and respect that we need on the job in addition to the pay and the benefits and the working conditions that are just absolute basic necessities for most working people. That’s all they want. They want to be treated fairly......»»

Category: topSource: timeOct 24th, 2021