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Category: topSource: redinewsNov 15th, 2021

Black Friday Turns Red On "Terrible News" - Global Markets Crater On "Nu Variant" Panic

Black Friday Turns Red On "Terrible News" - Global Markets Crater On "Nu Variant" Panic The Friday after thanksgiving is called black Friday because that's when retailers finally turn profitable for the year. Not so much for market, however, because this morning it's red as far as the eye can see. The culprit: the same one we discussed late last night - the emergence of a new coronavirus strain detected in South Africa, known as B.1.1.529, which reportedly carries an "extremely high number" of mutations and is “clearly very different” from previous incarnations, which may drive further waves of disease by evading the body’s defenses according to South African scientists, and soon, Anthony Fauci. British authorities think it is the most significant variant to date and have hurried to impose travel restrictions on southern Africa, as did Japan, the Czech Republic and Italy on Friday. The European Union also said it aimed to halt air travel from the region. "Markets have been quite complacent about the pandemic for a while, partly because economies have been able to withstand the impact of selective lockdown measures. But we can see from the new emergency brakes on air travel that there will be ramifications for the price of oil," said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa. As a result, what was initially just a 1% drop in US index futures, has since escalated to a plunge of as much as 2% with eminis dropping the most since September, at one point dropping below 4,600 after closing on Wednesday above 4,700 as a post-Thanksgiving selloff spread across global markets amid mounting concerns the new B.1.1.529 coronavirus variant - which today will be officially called by the Greek lettter Nu - could derail the global economic recovery.  Russell 2000 contracts sank as much as 5.4%. Technology shares may be caught in the net too as Nasdaq 100 futures slid. The VIX increased as much as 9.4 vols to 28, it's biggest jump since January. It was last seen up 7.4 points, or the biggest increase since February. Adding to the pain, there is nothing on today's macro calendar and the US market closes early which will reduce already dismal liquidity even more, exacerbating some of the moves throughout the session. Headlines are likely to center on various nations preventing travel from South Africa whilst potentially imposing more stringent COVID measures domestically, as well as which countries "find" the Nu variant. Amid the panicked flight to safety, 10Y TSY yields tumbled as traders slashed bets on monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (just hours after Goldman predicted that the Fed would double the pace of its taper and hike 3 times in 2022, oops) ... ... as did oil amid fears new covid lockdowns will lead to a collapse in crude demand (they will also certainly force OPEC+ to put on pause their plans to keep hiking output by 400K every month). Paradoxically, even cryptos are tumbling, which is surprising since even the dumbest algos should realize by now that a new covid outbreak means more dovish central banks, no tightening, and if nothing else, more QE and more liquidity which is precisely what cryptos need to break out to new all time highs. Cruise ship operator Carnival slumped 9.1% in premarket trading and Boeing slid 5.8% as travel companies tumbled worldwide. Stay-at-home stocks such as Zoom Video rallied.  Didi Global shares fell after Chinese regulators reportedly asked the ride-hailing giant to delist from U.S. bourses. Here are some of the other big premarket movers: Airlines and other travel stocks slumped in premarket trading on growing concern about a new Covid-19 variant identified in southern Africa. The European Union is proposing to halt air travel from several countries in the area and the U.K. will temporarily ban flights from the region. United Airlines (UAL US) fell 8.9%, Delta Air (DAL US) -7.9%, American Airlines (AAL US) -6.7%; cruiseline-operator Carnival (CCL US) -12%; hotelier Marriott (MAR US) -6.1%; lodging company Airbnb (ABNB US) -6.9%. Stay-at-home stocks that benefit from higher demand in lockdowns rose in premarket, with Zoom Video (ZM US) gaining 8.5% and fitness equipment group Peloton (PTON US) +4.7%. Vaccine stocks surged in premarket, while Pfizer and BioNTech got an added boost after their coronavirus shot won European Union backing for expanded use in children. Moderna (MRNA US) rose 8.8%, Novavax (NVAX US) +6.2%, Pfizer (PFE US) +5.1%, BioNTech (BNTX US) +6.4%. Small biotech stocks gained in premarket as investors sought havens. Ocugen (OCGN US) added 22%, Vir Biotechnology (VIR US) +7.8%, Sorrento Therapeutics (SRNE US) +5%. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fell as Bitcoin dropped as investors dumped risk assets. Marathon Digital (MARA US) declined 9%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) -8.8%, Coinbase (COIN US) -4.6%. Didi Global (DIDI US) declined 6% in premarket after Chinese regulators were said to have asked the ride-hailing giant to delist from U.S. bourses. Selecta Biosciences (SELB US) dropped 13% in Wednesday’s postmarket ahead of Thursday’s Thanksgiving closure, after saying the U.S. FDA placed a clinical hold on a trial. Quotient Technology (QUOT US) gained 3.9% in Wednesday’s postmarket on news that a board member bought $150,000 of shares. What happens next will matter and so, all eyes are on the opening bell for the U.S. markets, set to return from the holiday for a shortened trading session. Tumbling futures and a soaring VIX signaled that the rout in Asia and Europe won’t spare New York equities, while lack of liquidity will only make the pain worse. The Japanese yen emerged as the main haven currency of the day, with the dollar languishing. “Every trader in New York will be rushing to the office now,” said Salm-Salm & Partner portfolio manager Frederik Hildner, adding that news of the new variant could mean the end of the inflation and tapering debate. The worsening pandemic poses a dilemma for central banks that are preparing to tighten monetary policy to curb elevated price pressures, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. “It’s terrible news,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, said in emailed comments. “The new Covid variant could hit the economic recovery, but this time, the central banks won’t have enough margin to act. They can’t fight inflation and boost growth at the same time. They have to choose.” “We now have a new Covid variant that’s ‘very’ different from the ones we knew so far, a rising inflation, and a market bubble,” she said.  “The only encouraging news is the easing oil prices, which could tame the inflationary pressures and give more time to the central banks before pulling back support.” In the meantime, the World Health Organization and scientists in South Africa were said to be working “at lightning speed” to ascertain how quickly the B.1.1.529 variant can spread and whether it’s resistant to vaccines. The new threat adds to the wall of worry investors are already contending with in the form of elevated inflation, monetary tightening and slowing growth. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index headed for the biggest drop in 13 months plunging 2.7%; travel and banking industries led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index down as much as 3.7%, the biggest intraday drop since June 2020. Airbus slumped 8.6% in Paris and British Airways owner IAG tumbled 12% in London, while food-delivery stocks gained.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Stay-at-home stocks and Covid testing firms such as TeamViewer and DiaSorin are among the biggest gainers as worries over a new Covid variant send the Stoxx 600 tumbling on lockdown fears TeamViewer and DiaSorin rise as much as 6% and 7%, respectively On the down side, travel and leisure stocks plunge, with the likes of IAG, Lufthansa and Carnival posting double- digit falls IAG drops as much as 21% Software AG shares rise as much as 9.5% after Bloomberg reported that the firm is exploring strategic options, including a potential sale, with Morgan Stanley saying the company’s biggest headwinds are behind it. Evolution gains as much as 4.6%, recouping part of Thursday’s 16% plunge, with Bank of America saying the share price’s “crazy time” amounts to a good buying opportunity. Skistar rises as much as 3.7%, bucking steep declines for travel and leisure stocks, after Handelsbanken upgraded the stock, saying bookings for the Scandinavian ski resort operator are “set to surge.” Telecom Italia climbs as much as 2.8% following a Bloomberg report that private equity firms KKR and CVC are considering teaming up on a bid for the company. ING Groep falls as much as 11% after Goldman Sachs analyst Jean-Francois Neuez cut his recommendation to neutral from buy. Getlink drops as much as 6% as French fishermen start protests aimed at stepping up pressure on the U.K. in a post-Brexit fishing dispute. Earlier in the session, MSCI's index of Asian shares outside Japan fell 2.2%, its sharpest drop since August. Casino and beverage shares were hammered in Hong Kong, while travel stocks dropped in Sydney and Tokyo. Japan's Nikkei skidded 2.5% and S&P 500 futures were last down 1.8%. Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM, a brokerage, said the closure of the U.S. market for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday had exacerbated moves. "We need to see how transmissible this variant is, is it able to evade the vaccines - this is crucial," Coghlan said. "I expect this story to drag on for a few days until scientists have a better understanding of it." Indian stocks plunged as the detection of a new coronavirus strain rattled investor sentiment globally, raising concerns over a likely setback to the nascent economic recovery.  The S&P BSE Sensex lost 2.9%, the most since mid-April, to 57,107.15 in Mumbai, taking its loss this week to 4.2%, the biggest weekly drop since January. The NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by a similar magnitude on Friday. Reliance Industries was the biggest drag on both measures and declined 3.2%.  “There is fear of this new variant spreading to other countries which might again derail the global economy,” said Hemang Jani, head of equity strategy at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.   Of the 30 shares in the Sensex index, 26 fell and 4 gained. All but one of 19 sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. retreated, led by a index of realty companies. The S&P BSE Healthcare index was the only sub-index to gain, surging 1.2%. While researchers are yet to determine whether the new virus variant is more transmissible or lethal than previous ones, authorities around the world have been quick to act. The European Union, U.K., Israel, and Singapore placed emergency curbs on passengers from South Africa and the surrounding region. Travel stocks were among the hardest hit. InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. fell 8.9%, Spicejet Ltd. slipped 6.7% and Indian Hotels Co. Ltd. plunged 11.2%, the most since March 2020.  “Nervousness on the new variant of coronavirus and expectations of the U.S. Fed increasing the pace of tapering have led to recent market weakness,” Amit Gupta, fund manager for portfolio management services at ICICI Securities Ltd. said. “This trend may take some time to recover as the WHO meeting on the new mutant variant impact and hospitalization rates in US and Europe will be watched by the market very closely.” Crude oil to emerging markets completed this picture of mayhem. In rates, fixed income was firmly bid as Treasuries extended their advance led by the belly of the curve, outperforming bunds, while money markets pared rate-hike bets amid fears that a new coronavirus strain may spread globally, slowing economic growth. Cash Treasuries outperformed, richening 12-14bps across the short end, with Thursday’s closure exacerbating the optics. As shown above, 10Y Treasury yields shed as much as 10 basis points while the Japanese yen jumped the most since investors’ March 2020 rush for safety. Yields across the curve are lower by more than 8bp at long end, 13bp-15bp out to the 7-year point, moves that if sustained would be the largest since at least March 2020 and in some cases since 2009. Short-term interest rate futures downgraded the odds of Fed rate increases. Gilts richened 10-11bps across the curve, outperforming bunds by 4-5bps. Peripheral and semi-core spreads widen. In FX, JPY and CHF top the G-10 scoreboard with havens typically bid. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after earlier touching a fresh cycle high, and the greenback was mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers as the yen and the Swiss franc led gains while the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone were the worst performers as commodity prices plunged. Traders pushed back the timing of a 25-basis-point rate increase by the Federal Reserve to July from June, with only one further hike expected for the remainder of 2022. It’s a similar story in the U.K. where the Bank of England is now expected to tighten policy in February instead of next month. Wagers that the ECB will raise its deposit rate by the end of next year have also been slashed, with only a six basis-point increase priced in, half of that seen earlier this week. The European Union is proposing to follow the U.K. in halting air travel from southern Africa after the new Covid-19 variant was identified there. The yen is at the epicenter of skyrocketing currency volatility as the new virus variant shakes markets. The cost of hedging against swings in the Japanese currency over the next week, which captures the release of the next U.S. payrolls report, is the most expensive in more than a year. In commodities, crude futures are hit hard. WTI drops over 7% before finding support near $73, Brent drops over 5% before recovering near $78. Spot gold grinds higher, adding $21 to trade near $1,809/oz. Base metals are sharply offered with much of the complex off as much as 3%. Looking at the otherwise quiet day ahead, data releases include French and Italian consumer confidence for November, as well as the Euro Area M3 money supply for October. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Visco, Schnabel, Centeno, Panetta and Lane, and BoE chief economist Pill. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 1.9% to 4,607.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 2.8% to 468.04 MXAP down 1.8% to 193.33 MXAPJ down 2.2% to 628.97 Nikkei down 2.5% to 28,751.62 Topix down 2.0% to 1,984.98 Hang Seng Index down 2.7% to 24,080.52 Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,564.09 Sensex down 2.7% to 57,234.83 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.7% to 7,279.35 Kospi down 1.5% to 2,936.44 Brent Futures down 5.8% to $77.46/bbl Gold spot up 0.9% to $1,805.13 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.33% to 96.46 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.31% Euro up 0.4% to $1.1259 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The European Union is proposing to halt air travel from southern Africa over growing concern about a new Covid-19 variant that’s spreading there, as the U.K. said it will also temporarily ban flights from the region Those close to the Kremlin say the Russian president doesn’t want to start another war in Ukraine. Still, he must show he’s ready to fight if necessary in order to stop what he sees as an existential security threat: the creeping expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in a country that for centuries had been part of Russia Bitcoin tumbled 20% from record highs notched earlier this month as a new variant of the coronavirus spurred traders to dump risk assets across the globe Germany’s Greens tapped their two co- leaders to run the foreign ministry and take charge of an influential portfolio overseeing economy and climate protection in the country’s next government under Social Democrat Olaf Scholz A more detailed breakdown of global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets declined and US equity futures were also on the backfoot on reopen from the prior day’s Thanksgiving lull with markets spooked by new COVID variant concerns related to the B.1.1.529 variant in South Africa that was first detected in Botswana. The new variant showed a high number of mutations and was said to be the most evolved strain ever which spurred fears it could be worse than Delta and is prompting both the UK and Israel to halt flights from several African nations. ASX 200 (-1.7%) was negative with heavy losses in energy and broad underperformance in cyclicals leading the downturn across all sectors, while the much better than expected Australian Retail Sales data was largely ignored. Nikkei 225 (-2.5%) underperformed and gave up the 29k status as selling was exacerbated by detrimental currency inflows and with SoftBank shares among the worst hit on reports that China is said to have asked Didi to delist from US exchanges on security fears, which doesn't bode well for SoftBank given that its Vision Fund is the top shareholder in the Chinese ride hailing group with a stake of more than 20%. Hang Seng (-2.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.7%) conformed to the risk aversion with the mood not helped by ongoing geopolitical concerns after a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson noted they are ready to crush Taiwan independence bid "at any time”, while China also said it opposes US sanctions on its companies and will take all necessary measures to firmly defend the rights of Chinese companies. Beijing interference further contributed to the headwinds amid the request by China for Didi to delist from US which reports stated regulators could backtrack on and with Tencent subdued after some Chinese state-run companies restricted the use of Tencent's messaging app. Top Asian News Stocks in Asia Set for Worst Day Since March on Virus Woes Mizuho CEO Steps Down After Regulator Hit on System Issues Meituan 3Q Revenue Meets Estimates Japan’s Kishida Delivers $316 billion Extra Budget for Recovery European equities are trading markedly lower (Stoxx 600 -2.9%) with losses in the Stoxx 600 extending to 3.8% WTD. Sentiment throughout the week has been hampered by various lockdown measures imposed across the region with the latest leg lower accelerated by new COVID variant concerns related to the B.1.1.529 variant in South Africa. The new variant has shown a high number of mutations and is said to be the most evolved strain so far. This has spurred fears it could be worse than Delta and has prompted multiple nations to halt flights from several African nations.The handover from the overnight session was an equally downbeat one with the Nikkei 225 (-2.5%) dealt a hammer blow by the risk environment and unfavourable currency flows. Stateside, futures are lower across the board with the RTY the clear laggard with losses of 4.2% compared to the ES -1.8%, whilst the tech-heavy NQ is faring better than peers but ultimately still lower on the session to the tune of 1.6%. Note, early closures in the US and subsequent liquidity conditions could exacerbate some of the moves throughout the session. With the macro calendar light, focus for the session is likely to centre on various nations preventing travel from South Africa whilst potentially imposing more stringent COVID measures domestically. Any further clarity on the spread of the variant and its potential to evade vaccines will be of great interest to the market and likely be the main driving force of price action today. Sectors in Europe are lower across the board with the Stoxx 600 Banking (-5.1%) sector bottom of the pile amid the declines seen in global bond yields as markets scale back expectations of central bank tightening (e.g. pricing now assigns a 63% chance of a 15bps hike by the BoE next month vs. 93% a week ago). Oil & Gas names (-4.8%) are suffering on account of the declines in the crude space with WTI crude in freefall with losses of 6.7% given the potential impact of travel restrictions on demand. Travel restrictions on South Africa (from UK, Israel, EU et al) and the potential for further announcements has crushed the Travel & Leisure sector (-5.7%) with airline names dealt a hammer blow; IAG (-13.5%), easyJet (-11%), Deutsche Lufthansa (-12%), Air France (-9.5%). Elsewhere, there are a whole raft of other laggards which are very much in-fitting with the March 2020 playbook but there are simply too many to list for the purpose of this report. Defensives and Tech are faring better than peers but ultimately still lower on the session to the tune of 1% and 1.9% respectively. Finally, for anyone wanting some positivity from today’s session, the potential for further lockdowns has proved to be beneficial for the likes of HelloFresh (+3.2%), Ocado (+2.1%) and Delivery Hero (+1.9%). Top European News Airlines Skid on South Africa Travel Bans Tied to Variant German Coalition Proposes a Combustion-Car Ban Without Saying So Putin Pushes Confrontation With NATO as Hardliners Prevail Siemens Is Said to Kick Off Sale of Postal Logistics Business In FX, the index has been under pressure in the risk-averse environment amid a slump in yields and gains in its basket components – namely the JPY, CHF, EUR (see below) – and with liquidity also thinned by Thanksgiving. From a technical perspective, the index has declined from its 96.787 overnight high, through the 96.500 mark, to a low of 96.332 – with the weekly trough at 96.035. Ahead, the US calendar is once again light, with the US also poised for an early Thanksgiving closure; thus, impulses will likely be derived from the macro environment. JPY, CHF, EUR - Haven FX JPY and CHF are the clear outperformers as a function of risk-related inflows. USD/JPY has retreated from a 115.37 peak and fell through its 21 DMA (114.15) to a base around 113.66 - with the current weekly low around 113.64. USD/CHF retreated from 0.9360 to 0.9260 – with the 50 and 100 DMAs seen at 0.9234 and 0.9219, respectively, ahead of 0.9200. EUR/USD meanwhile gains on what is seemingly an unwind of the carry trade amid a spike in volatility. EUR/USD found support near 1.1200 before rebounding to a current 1.1288 peak. AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP - The non-US Dollar risk currencies bear the brunt of the latest market downturn, with losses across industrial commodities not helping. The Loonie has taken the spot as the biggest G10 loser as hefty COVID-induced losses in the oil complex keep the currency suppressed. USD/CAD trades towards the top of a current 1.2647-2774 range. AUD is also weighed on by softer base metal prices – AUD/USD fell from a 0.7200 overnight high to a current low at 0.7110. On that note, Westpac sees AUD/USD pushed down to 0.7000 by Jun 2022 (prev. 0.7700) amid rate differentials with the US; Westpac made significant changes to its FOMC policy forecast and now expect consecutive increases in the fed funds rate in Jun, Sept, and Dec 2022. NZD/USD is slightly more cushioned amid smaller exposure to commodities, and as the AUD/NZD cross takes aim at 1.0450 to the downside. GBP, meanwhile, was initially among the losers amid its high-beta status but thereafter nursed losses in a move that coincided with EUR/GBP rejecting an upside breach of its 21 DMA at 0.8475. EM - The ZAR is the standout laggard given the new South African COVID variant - B.1.1.529 COVID-19 variant (expected to be named Nu) – which is said to be the most evolved strain so far and thus prompted several countries to halt travel to the country of origin. USD/ZAR currently trades within a 15.9375-16.3630 intraday band. Meanwhile, the downturn oil sees USD/RUB north of 75.00 and closer to 76.00 from a 74.2690 base. The Lira also feels some contagion despite the lower oil prices (Turkey being a large net oil importer) – USD/TRY is back on a 12.00 handle and within 11.92-1226 parameters at the time of writing. In commodities, the crude complex has been hit by compounding COVID fears which in turn triggered various travel restrictions and subsequently took its toll on global crude demand prospects. The new and more evolved South African variant prompted the UK, Singapore, and Israel to expand their travel red lists to include some African nations (Israel reported its first case of the new COVID-19 variant known as B.1.1.529). Japan also imposed tighter border restrictions. China’s Shanghai city see flights impacted by its own outbreak. Europe also tackles its surge in daily cases - German Green Party's Baerbock (incoming Foreign Minister) does not rule out a German lockdown, according to Spiegel. EU Commission President von der Leyen is also to propose activation of the emergency air brake, to halt travel from southern Africa due to the B.1.1.529 COVID-19 variant. Losses in oil have exacerbated - with WTI Jan and Brent Feb now under USD 74/bbl (vs high 78.65/bbl) and USD 77/bbl (vs high 80.42/bbl), -6.0% and -5.0% respectively. This comes ahead of the OPEC+ confab next week, whereby OPEC watchers have suggested that oil prices will be a large contributor to the final decision. It is difficult to see how OPEC+ will increase output to the levels the US et al. will be content with, with the latest COVID downturn building the case for a pause in planned output hikes. Elsewhere, haven demand sees spot gold extend on gains above USD 1,800/oz after topping the 100 DMA (1,792.95/oz), 200 DMA (1,791.38/oz), 50 DMA (1,790.13/oz) overnight. Base metals are softer across the board amid the risk aversion. LME copper posts losses of around 3% at the time of writing, as prices threaten a more convincing downside breach of USD 9,500/t. US Event Calendar Nothing major scheduled DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Things have escalated on the covid front quite rapidly over the last 12 hours. Yesterday new covid variant B.1.1.529 was slowly starting to gather increasing attention but overnight it has begun to dominate markets and has caused a notable flight to quality with 10 year USTs -8bps lower. It was originally identified in Botswana and is starting to spread rapidly in Africa. The South African Health Minister has said it is "of serious concern". Almost 100 cases have already been identified in South Africa and the UK moved to put the country back (along with 5 other African nations) on a reinstated red travel list last night with others following this morning. The variant is said to be the most heavily mutated version yet and the WHO will meet today to decide if it is a variant of interest or a variant of concern. So a lot of eyes will be on how severe it is and whether it completely evades vaccines. At this stage very little is known. Mutations are often less severe so we shouldn’t jump to conclusions but there is clearly a lot of concern about this one. Also South Africa is one of the world leaders in sequencing so we are more likely to see this sort of news originate from there than many countries. Suffice to say at this stage no one in markets will have any idea which way this will go. Overnight in Asia all benchmarks are trading lower on the news with the Shanghai Composite (-0.50%), CSI (-0.64%), KOSPI (-1.27%), Hang Seng (-2.13%) and the Nikkei (-2.90%) all lower. Airlines and other travel stocks have obviously fallen heavily. Hong Kong has detected two confirmed cases of the new variant just as Hong Kong and China were considering quarantine-free travel. S&P 500 (-0.93%) and DAX (-1.82%) futures are also much weaker. Elsewhere, in Japan, CPI rose +0.5% year-on-year (+0.4% consensus and +0.1% previously), on the back of 16-month high fuel prices. With the US out on holiday for Thanksgiving, there wasn’t much going on yesterday after a very quiet day in markets. The variant news was only slowly creeping into the news flow so it hardly impacted trading. But in keeping with the theme of recent days, both inflation and the latest covid wave in Europe remained very much in the picture as jitters continue to increase that we could see further lockdowns as we move towards Christmas. Starting with the headline moves, European equities did actually show signs of stabilising yesterday, with the STOXX 600 up +0.42% thanks to a broad-based advance across the continent. In fact that’s actually the index’s best daily performance in over three weeks, although that’s not reflecting any particular strength, but instead the fact the index inched steadily but persistently towards a record high before selling off again a week ago. Other indices moved higher across the continent too, with the FTSE 100 (+0.33%), the CAC 40 (+0.48%) and the DAX (+0.25%) all posting similar advances. These will all likely reverse this morning. One piece of news we did get came from the ECB, who released the account of their monetary policy meeting for October. Something the minutes stressed was the importance that the Governing Council maintain optionality in their policy settings, with one part acknowledging the growing upside risks to inflation, but also saying “it was deemed important for the Governing Council to avoid an overreaction as well as unwarranted inaction, and to keep sufficient optionality in calibrating its monetary policy measures to address all inflation scenarios that might unfold.” Against this backdrop, 10yr bond yields moved lower across multiple countries, with those on bunds (-2.3ps), OATs (-2.3bps) and BTPs (-1.9bps) all declining. There was also a flattening in all 3 yield curves as well, with the 2s10s slope in Germany (-3.0bps), France (-3.7bps) and Italy (-2.8bps) shifting lower. And the moves also coincided with a continued widening in peripheral spreads, with both the Spanish and the Greek spreads over 10yr bund yields widening to their biggest levels in over a year. Of course, one of the biggest concerns in Europe right now remains the pandemic, and yesterday saw a number of fresh measures announced as policymakers seek to get a grip on the latest wave. In France, health minister Veran announced various measures, including the expansion of the booster rollout to all adults, and a reduction in the length of time between the initial vaccination and the booster shot to 5 months from 6. Meanwhile in the Czech Republic, the government declared a state of emergency and approved tighter social distancing measures, including the closure of restaurants and bars at 10pm. And in Finland, the government have said that bars and restaurants not using Covid certificates will not be able to serve alcohol after 5pm. All this came as the European Medicines Agency recommended that the Pfizer vaccine be approved for children aged 5-11, which follows the decision to approve the vaccine in the US. Their recommendation will now go to the European Commission for a final decision. There wasn’t much in the way of data at all yesterday, though German GDP growth in Q3 was revised down to show a +1.7% expansion (vs. +1.8% previous estimate). Looking at the details, private consumption was the only driver of growth (+6.2%), with government consumption (-2.2%), machinery and equipment (-3.7%) and construction (-2.3%) all declining over the quarter. To the day ahead now, and data releases include French and Italian consumer confidence for November, as well as the Euro Area M3 money supply for October. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Visco, Schnabel, Centeno, Panetta and Lane, and BoE chief economist Pill. Tyler Durden Fri, 11/26/2021 - 08:12.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 26th, 2021

Bulls & Bears Collide In Crypto-Land: Hot-Hands Versus HODLers

Bulls & Bears Collide In Crypto-Land: Hot-Hands Versus HODLers Bears are on the hunt for Bitcoin HODLers profits, whilst supply dynamics approach a new equilibrium, and derivative markets remain heated... Amid the "fear and panic" in the crypto markets, as Bitcoin drops 50% from all-time-highs,'s 'Permabull Nino'  details the current uncertainty that overhangs the Bitcoin market, and the psychology of its participants attempting to regain their footing in the following areas: HODLer profits sitting at key historical levels, and the overall observable investor response Zoomed out supply dynamics and spending behavior among short-term and long-term holders, and what it indicates about investor sentiment in the medium to long term Derivative activity, and what it can imply about shorter term expectations towards Bitcoin price action HODLers Profits Under Siege The Bitcoin price is currently trading down ~50% from the ATH set in November 2021. As the drawdown worsens, an increasingly significant volume of BTC supply has fallen into an unrealized loss. Approximately 5.7 million BTC are now underwater (~30% of circulating supply). As the bears apply pressure to the in-profit cohort of holders, Bitcoin bulls are defending a historically significant level of the Percent of Supply in Profit metric. This magnitude of 'top heavy supply' was defended in two instances in the last few years: May 2020 - July 2020, the quiet recovery period following the extreme move downwards from Covid-related panic. May 2021 - July 2021, the choppy and accumulative period following a historical deleveraging event. The reaction from this level will likely provide insight into the medium term direction of the Bitcoin market. Further weakness may motivate these underwater sellers to finally capitulate, whereas a strong bullish impulse may offer much needed psychological relief, and put more coins back into an unrealized profit. Live Chart We can establish an appreciation of market-wide psychology by observing who is parting ways with their coins, and why and when these spends are taking place. The Percent of Transfer Volume in Profit chart displays the proportion of coins spent on-chain that were last moved at lower prices, as a gauge for macro fear and greed. Percent of Transfer Volume in Profit > 65% signals that a large amount of coins are being spent in profit. This historically occurs during bullish impulses, as holders take advantage of market strength. Percent of Transfer Volume in Profit < 40% signals that on-chain volumes are dominated by coins acquired at higher prices. This historically occurs in market downtrends and especially capitulation events. The sell-off this week saw less than 40% of spent volume in profit, reaching levels that historically coincide with capitulation events. Past instances at this level have preceded a bullish reversal, and a period of general risk-on behaviour. Live Chart The low levels of profitable coin spends is also evident in the Realized Profit chart, which shows the profitability of BTC moved, on a USD basis. In-profit holders are displaying a notable unwillingness to spend coins, with consistent Realized Profit values below $1 Billion/day. In the face of tumultuous and unconvincing price action, this signals that this cohort of holders are patiently waiting for higher prices to spend their respective supply. Climbing realized profits, especially above the $1 Billion level and accompanied by positive price performance, signals demand absorption of coins, and is a metric to watch in the coming weeks. Live Chart Meanwhile, Realized Losses remain elevated and trending higher, as underwater holders spend coins that were acquired near the market top through October and November. On average, daily Realized Loss values are ~$750 Million/day, behavior that is comparable to the May - July 2021 capitulation lows. The consistency of large loss realization events is indicative of uneasiness within the market, however also reflects an estimate of demand inflows to absorb these spent coins. Sustained periods of large realized loss does put the onus on the bulls to prove sufficient demand support. A macro decline in realized loss values would be a more encouraging signal for the bulls, as it provides an early indication of sell-side exhaustion. Live Chart The stalemate at play between price action, Realized Profits, and Realized Losses is visible in the 28-day Market Realized Gradient (MRG), which compares the momentum in Market Cap (speculative value) versus the Realized Cap (real capital inflows). Positive values signal that a bull trend is in tact, and upwards momentum in spot markets is growing. Negative values signal that a bear trend is in play, and momentum favors the bears. Large values signal that Bitcoin is possibly overbought (positive) or oversold (negative), as market valuation deviates from more fundamental capital inflows or outflows, respectively. The MRG trend and values indicate that current market pricing is nearing a point of equilibrium with capital inflows, with a month's long bullish divergence developing. A firm break above zero would signal a bullish reversal is in play, whilst a break down would suggest momentum is accelerating to the downside. Live Workbench Chart Cohorts and Psychology We can also analyse the psychology and spending behaviour of both Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH) by looking at changes in their respective Realized Caps and supply dynamics. The following metric is calculated as the difference between the daily change of LTH and STH realized caps. Interpretation is as follows: Negative Values (red) signal that the STH Realized Cap is increasing more on a daily basis than the LTH Realized Cap. This occurs during bull runs when long term holders distribute supply into new holders. Positive Values (green) signal that the LTH Realized Cap is increasing more on a daily basis than the STH Realized Cap, which occurs during bearish accumulation markets as STH activity decreases, and unspent coins mature into the LTH cohort. Values currently sit near zero with a general trend to the upside, indicative of a softening of distribution by LTHs, the market reaching a new equilibrium, and a potential reversal into accumulation. Note however, that the process of establishing similar market equilibrium and possible macro bottoms has historically taken several months to resolve. Live Workbench Chart The modest distribution of coins from LTHs to STHs is reflected in the Total Supply Held metric, as the net volume of coins held by the STH cohort has increased in recent months. The supply held by this cohort sits at ~3 Million BTC, a relative historical low, and a level that signifies a transition into a HODLer dominated market. This has been in effect since the May 2021 deleveraging event. Low STH supply levels are typical of bearish trends, as old coins remain dormant, and younger coins are slowly accumulated by high conviction buyers. Live Chart Next we turn to the Realized Cap HODL Waves, which reflects the breakdown of the Realized Cap by coin age, and cost basis. The chart below has been filtered for coins younger than 3 months to further highlight the forces at play within the shorter term holder cohort. Generally speaking, lower values in this metric speak to a bearish trend where old coins are dormant, and young coins are gradually accumulated and taken off market. At present, around 40% of the Realized Cap is held in coins under 3mths old, owned by buyers entering near the market top, or during the present correction. The 1-3m band is expanding and a constructive view would see these coins continue to mature into the 3m+ band, creating a net decline in young coins. A more bearish observation would be if older coins start being spent, causing these bands to swell, and signifying an additional influx of liquid supply that must be absorbed. Live Chart Derivatives Fireworks on the Horizon Amidst downwards pressure in Bitcoin holder profitability but yet favorable medium to long term supply dynamics, futures markets remain a powder keg for short term volatility with Perpetual Futures Open Interest at ~250k BTC - a historically elevated level. Since April 2021, this has paired with large pivots in price action as the risk for a short or long squeeze increases, resolved in market wide deleveraging events. Live Chart Alongside high open interest, funding rates this week moved into negative territory, indicating that shorts were increasingly hungry for leverage. As perpetual swap markets were pushed below spot prices, it does add further bias towards a potential oversupply of short positions in close proximity to the current price. Live Chart In addition to large outstanding open interest, and negative funding rates, trading volume continues to drip lower, currently around $30B per day. This is coincident with levels in December 2020, and reflects a marked reduction from the 2021 bull market highs, hitting well above $70B/day. Should a deleveraging event occur, thinner trading volumes may accentuate the impact. Live Chart As Open Interest continues charging for a big move, funding rates drop, and futures volumes contract, Crypto-Margined Open Interest continues its march downwards versus Cash-Margined Open Interest. With only 40% of Open Interest sitting in Crypto-Margined products and in a convincing downtrend since May 2021, Cash-Margined Futures data becomes increasingly higher signal and worthy of more market participants' attention. Note that this trend is primarily driven by a relative reduction in crypto-margin on Binance, Bybit, Huobi and OKEx exchanges. Live Chart In summary, there is evidence that the market is reaching some form of price and momentum equilibrium, within what is a broader bearish market structure. Bitcoin bears certainly have the upper hand, however modest bullish divergences are appearing across a number of on-chain metrics and indicators. Coupled with elevated future open interest, and a bias that appears to be a short heavy market, a risk of a deleveraging to the upside remains on the table. Tyler Durden Sat, 01/22/2022 - 16:30.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytJan 22nd, 2022

Rickards: Bad News, I"m Afraid

Rickards: Bad News, I'm Afraid Authored by James Rickards via, The breakdown of global supply chains is well-known by now. Whether it’s finding groceries in your supermarket, buying a new car or buying appliances like dishwashers and refrigerators, goods are scarce. Also, deliveries take forever and choices are limited. Many people wonder why the problem isn’t going away. Here’s the answer: The supply chain is a complex dynamic system. When any complex system collapses, you can look for specific causes but that’s usually a waste of time. Systems collapse internally because they are too large and too interconnected and require too many energy inputs to keep going. Any specific cause is more likely to be a symptom than a true cause. It’s frustrating, but that’s the answer. Most Americans’ first encounter with the supply chain meltdown was in the spring of 2020 during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Shoppers noticed that items like hand sanitizer and paper goods at Costco and other big-box stores were cleaned out. It seemed that Americans who were locked down and quarantined at the time were hoarding these products because they had no idea when they would be allowed to venture out again. The shortages were real, but were limited to specific products. The other aisles at Costco were stocked and so were all the other stores around (at least those that were allowed to remain open). Now It’s Everything But it’s not just Costco this time. It’s every supermarket, convenience store and other retail outlet from coast to coast. And it’s not just cleaning products and paper goods. Your local supermarket might have bare shelves for eggs, peanut butter, milk and other staples. It’s not a case of being stocked out of all goods all the time. Your store is like a box of Cracker Jack – you never know what’s inside. Many items are available, but many are not. It’s a case of stockouts of certain goods from time to time. But you can be sure that something will be missing and some of the shelves will be bare. Still, there’s a narrative around that the crisis is temporary, that steps are being taken to alleviate shortages and backlogs and things will soon be back to normal. The narrative blames the shortages on the pandemic and the number of workers home with COVID. It says that things will clear up when the virus is under control. That’s the narrative, but it’s not the reality. The evidence is that the supply chain crisis is just getting started. It’ll be with us for years and have huge negative economic effects. All Connected and All Collapsing at Once No one doubts that the pandemic, especially the Omicron variant, has had a major impact and has caused millions to fall ill and miss work. It’s also likely that the missing employees due to illness are part of the reason shelves are not fully stocked. But they are not a prime cause of the supply chain chaos. Even if stores were fully staffed, there would still be shortages and delays due to everything from a shortage of truck drivers, late container cargo shipments from Asia, manufacturing delays due to lack of inputs, energy shortages and many other impediments. That’s the point. The supply chain is collapsing at every stage due to bottlenecks at every other stage. Commodity inputs are scarce, partly due to energy shortages at mines. Manufacturing is behind due to lack of commodity inputs. Deliveries are behind due to manufacturing delays. And finally, shelves are bare due to nondelivery of orders and a worker shortage. It’s all connected and it’s all collapsing at once. So don’t believe the happy talk about a “temporary” supply chain crisis. I’ll say it again: The crisis will last for years with predictable negative effects on economic growth. The “Factory to the World” Is Closing Down One major concern is China. China is currently pursuing a COVID Zero policy. This means that China has zero tolerance for even a single case of COVID. If COVID appears, China will isolate the individual, do a massive track-and-trace operation and then forcibly remove entire neighborhoods to quarantine camps outside the city limits for mandatory lockdowns of 14 days or more. If more than a few cases are detected, China will follow the same procedure but on a much larger scale. They will relocate hundreds of thousands of people if needed and shut down entire cities. This has already happened in Xi’an, a city of 1.5 million people and a major manufacturing center. A new lockdown just arose in Henan province, which is the center of Chinese electronics production. China has also locked down the port of Ningbo, which is the second largest port in China after Shanghai, and one of the largest in the world. China has also required that crews on arriving vessels must be confined to the vessel and are not allowed onshore for normal rest and recreation. Since these crews often spend six months or more at sea, vessel operators are starting to schedule trips that avoid China. That means that even when goods are produced, they cannot necessarily be shipped because of a shortage of vessels and crews. The situation is getting worse, not better, and will deteriorate even more as we move toward the Beijing Olympics and the Lunar New Year holidays in China. In effect, the “factory to the world” has decided to shut down the factory, or at least large parts of it for months to come. This will continue to impact the U.S., which Americans are not accustomed to or prepared for. Forced Labor Americans associate bare shelves with Third World countries or perhaps East Germany during the Cold War. That last time Americans have had to deal with shortages on this scale were the gas crises of the 1970s and rationing during World War II. Importantly, the phenomenon is not limited to the United States – it’s a global event. And it’s leading to extreme government measures. Take a look at Australia. As in the U.S., Australia has large numbers of unemployed workers. They receive benefit payments similar to welfare and unemployment from an agency called Centrelink. Well, the government has now declared that unemployed benefit recipients must work several hours per week to restock supermarket shelves in order to keep their Centrelink benefits. So, social benefits are being used to draft forced labor to deal with a supply chain problem. Australia has become a kind of prison camp based on government dictates concerning the virus. It’s a good example of how COVID has empowered governments to dictate every aspect of citizens’ lives. This won’t be the last government mandate in Australia or here. And there’s a powerful lesson to be learned here: Once governments get a taste of neo-fascism, they always want more. That’s true even in a liberal democracy like Australia. We’re seeing similar phenomena play out in western European democracies as well. A Race Against Time The other thing we can be sure of is that these mandates will slow the economy and destroy wealth. The bad news for investors, again, is that this situation will persist for years. It’s not easy to correct and definitely not something that can be corrected quickly. In markets, this will play out as higher costs, lower earnings and ultimately lower stock prices. With markets still close to all-time highs, this could be a good time to lighten up on stocks before the supply chain reality catches up with the stock market bubble. When it does, it won’t be pretty. Tyler Durden Sat, 01/22/2022 - 12:30.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytJan 22nd, 2022

Saturn"s "Death Star" moon may have a secret ocean, revealing a new category of worlds that could host alien life

One of Saturn's smallest moons wasn't a candidate for alien life. But if Mimas has an ocean, it could point to a new class of "stealth" water worlds. NASA's Cassini spacecraft took the most detailed photo to date of Mimas on its closest flyby of the Saturn moon in 2010.NASA/JPL-Caltech/Space Science Institute Saturn's small moon Mimas could have an ocean of liquid water deep beneath its surface. NASA's Cassini spacecraft detected swaying in the icy moon's spin that could lead to internal heat. Mimas appears inactive on the surface, so an ocean there could mean a new class of "stealth" ocean worlds. NASA is studying several moons of Saturn and Jupiter that carry oceans of liquid water deep beneath their surfaces, where alien life could thrive. Another moon, previously assumed to be a barren ice rock, might join their ranks.Mimas is a small moon of Saturn, often compared to the Death Star from Star Wars, thanks to its large, distinct crater. Scientists have long believed that Mimas is an inert ball of ice because of its heavily cratered surface. Icy worlds with oceans are usually smooth, since changes in their surface ice pave over craters, or cracked. Tidal forces stretch and relax these moons, which both cracks the surface ice and heats the moons' insides, sustaining internal oceans.But NASA's Cassini mission, which orbited and studied Saturn for over a decade, detected an unexpected oscillation in Mimas's rotation. As it spins on its axis, Mimas wobbles slightly. Such oscillations may point to an ocean deep beneath the moon's ice, according to a new analysis.Mimas orbiting Saturn beyond the planet's rings, pictured by NASA's Cassini spacecraft in 2008.NASA/JPL/Space Science Institute"If Mimas has an ocean, it represents a new class of small, 'stealth' ocean worlds with surfaces that do not betray the ocean's existence," Alyssa Rhoden, a geophysicist who led the analysis at the Southwest Research Institute, said in a press release.Rhoden's finding was published online in the journal Icarus this week, in a paper co-authored with Matthew Walker of the Planetary Science Institute in Arizona.It's still no guarantee of a secret Mimas ocean. Researchers need to investigate the moon for further evidence."The work doesn't prove that there is a subsurface ocean on Mimas, but it does show that an ocean is perfectly consistent with the available data and our understanding of the physics, and the authors are appropriately cautious about this," Michael Bland, a space scientist who studies icy worlds at the US Geological Survey, and previously spoke with Rhoden about the research, told Insider in an email. "I think the study also opens as many questions as it answers."Underground oceans on distant moons could mean alien life in our solar systemAn illustration of a submersible robot exploring the subsurface ocean of an icy moon.NASA/JPL-CaltechMimas's oscillation could indicate that Saturn's gravity stretches and relaxes the planet as it spins — similar to the moon's gravity pulling Earth's water back and forth during tides. This process could build up energy deep inside Mimas, which is released as heat, warming its internal ice and creating an underground ocean of liquid water.Rhoden and Walker developed computer models to simulate that stretching process for Mimas, including how it would affect the stability of the moon's ice shell, and how that stretching fits in with Cassini's measurements of Mimas's oscillation. The model indicated that Saturn's tidal pull could maintain an ocean lying beneath 14 to 20 miles of ice on Mimas."This result is really intriguing because it implies that we can't tell which moons in the outer solar system may have subsurface oceans just from their surface geology," Bland said.Some moons — like Jupiter's Europa and Saturn's Enceladus — have plumes of water shooting up from their internal oceans, through their surface ice, and into space. In 2020, scientists also discovered evidence of an underground ocean on a dwarf planet called Ceres, which orbits the sun between Mars and Jupiter. Salt deposits on Ceres's surface appear to have percolated up from liquid water below.These ocean worlds could have deep-sea hydrothermal vents that produce energy for living organisms. Such vents serve as an energy source for life at the bottom Earth's oceans, where there is no sunlight. If Mimas has an ocean, it might be able to host such ecosystems, too.A hydrothermal vent on Earth.OAR/National Undersea Research Program (NURP); NOAABut the study isn't enough evidence to prove that. If the researchers' models are off — if Mimas's ice cools faster than they assumed, for example — there may be no Mimas ocean at all. "If the Cassini spacecraft had been able to fly closer to Mimas, it might have sensed a magnetic field generated by the Mimas ocean, which would be a direct confirmation that an ocean is present today," Steve Vance, who studies icy worlds at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told Insider in an email. "Hopefully a future mission will be able to look for an ocean in Mimas."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 21st, 2022

China Sends A Message With Weakest Yuan Fixing Relative To Expectations In Over A Month

China Sends A Message With Weakest Yuan Fixing Relative To Expectations In Over A Month As we discussed earlier this week, a new conundrum had emerged in the market: instead of rising on good news, and a Fed clearly determined to hike rates, the dollar has been sliding (read our explanation here). But for China, which is now in easing mode, and is increasingly concerned what rate differential will do to the Chinese economy once the Fed begins tightening, the drop in the dollar appears to not be nearly enough and on Thursday, the Chinese central bank set the yuan's reference rate at the weakest relative to expectations in a month. The PBOC set the daily reference rate at yuan fixing at 6.3542 per dollar, which as shown below was 60 pips weaker-than the average estimate of 6.3482, the biggest discount relative to expectations in over a month. The spread between the daily yuan fix and expectations is charted below, and it shows that with a handful of exceptions, the yuan has been fixed well below expectations for much of the past 4 months. “Today’s fixing was weaker than expected, and an indication that the authorities do not want the yuan to strengthen past the 6.35 level yet,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ in Singapore. “However, with China still running large trade surpluses, portfolio inflows strong and the USD now turning lower, it may be difficult for the authorities to prevent the yuan from strengthening anyway.” Exporters will be more actively converting foreign currency holdings into yuan to pay bonuses and other festival-related spending ahead of Lunar New Year, lending further support to the yuan. “We have seen large fixing deviations before, and they tend to be a one-off. Tomorrow’s fixing therefore will be closely watched.” While it is still early to conclude that Beijing is freaking out about a strong yuan, it appears that we start 2022 with an even bigger conundrum. Not only is the dollar losing altitude as the US prepares to hike as much as four times this year, the appreciation pressures behind the yuan remain intense even as China is preparing to ease to stabilize its flailing property developers. Somehow we doubt that this will be the biggest market paradox of what is sure to be a very "interesting" year. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/13/2022 - 16:40.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytJan 13th, 2022

Global Economy Heading For "Mother Of All" Supply Chain Shocks As China Locks Down Ports

Global Economy Heading For "Mother Of All" Supply Chain Shocks As China Locks Down Ports Over the past month, as Wall Street turned increasingly optimistic on US growth alongside the Fed, with consensus (shaped by the Fed's leaks and jawboning) now virtually certain of a March rate hike, we have been repeatedly warning that after a huge policy error in 2021 when the Fed erroneously said that inflation is "transitory" (it wasn't), the central bank is on pace to make another just as big policy mistake in 2022 by hiking as many as 4 times and also running off its massive balance sheet... right into a growth slowdown. The Fed is going from one huge error (inflation is transitory) to another huge error (4 rate hikes and runoff won't crash markets). — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 11, 2022 And, as we have also discussed in recent weeks, one place where this slowdown is emerging - besides the slowdown in US consumption of course where spending is now being funded to record rates by credit cards - is China and its "covid-zero" policy in general, and its covid-locked down ports in particular. But what until recently was a minority view confined to our modest website, has since expanded and as Bloomberg writes overnight, the effects of restrictions in China as the country maintains its Covid-zero policy "are starting to hit supply chains in the region." As a result of the slow movement of goods through some of the country’s busiest and most important ports means shippers are now diverting to Shanghai, causing the types of knock-on delays at the world’s biggest container port that led to massive congestion bottlnecks last summer that eventually translated into a record number of container ships waiting off the coast of California, a glut that hasn't been cleared to this day. With sailing schedules already facing delays of about a week, freight forwarders warn of the impact on already back-logged gateways in Europe and the US and is also why HSBC economists are warning that the world economy could be headed for the “mother of all” supply chain shocks if the highly infectious omicron variant which is already swamping much of the global economy spreads across Asia, especially China, at which point disruption to manufacturing will be inevitable. "Temporary, one would hope, but hugely disruptive all the same" in the next few months, they wrote in a research note this week first noted by Bloomberg. For those who have forgotten last year's global shockwave when China locked down its ports for several days, a quick reminder: it led to an unprecedented hiccup in global logistics and shipping which hasn't been resolved to this day. That's because China is the world’s biggest trading nation and its ability to keep its factories humming through the pandemic has been crucial for global supply chains. While the outbreak of omicron in China has been small compared to other nations (if one believes China's official data, which is a big if) authorities are taking no chances, especially with China's continued "zero-covid" policy. In recent weeks scattered infections of both the delta and omicron variants have already triggered shutdowns to clothing factories and gas deliveries around one of China’s biggest seaports in Ningbo, disruptions at computer chip manufacturers in the locked-down city of Xi’an, and a second city-wide lockdown in Henan province Tuesday. Below is a brief timeline of the most recent events courtesy of Deutsche Bank: China's first Omicron outbreak was detected in the city of Tianjin over the weekend. On the morning of Jan 8, two patients in Tianjin who actively sought medical treatment were confirmed as being infected with the Omicron variant. The local government immediately locked down certain districts, restricted travel, and conducted large-scale screening. A total of 41 positive cases have been reported as of the morning of Jan 11. The source of the local cases in Tianjin is still unknown, and community transmission is possible, according to local disease control officials. All previous local Omicron cases in Tianjin belonged to the same transmission chain. However, the above cases cannot be confirmed to be in the same transmission chain as the sequences of the imported cases of the Omicron variant that have been found in Tianjin. The early confirmed cases do not have any travel history outside Tianjin either. The specific source of the local cases found in Tianjin is still unknown at this time. More alarmingly, the same Omicron virus strain has already spread to outside Tianjin. Two positive cases were found in Anyang, Henan on Jan 8, and were later confirmed to be the same Omicron variant found in Tianjin. Through contact tracing and gene sequencing, the source was identified as a college student who returned to Anyang from Tianjin on December 28, 2021, and who did not show any symptoms. 81 cases have since been confirmed in Anyang over the past few days. This suggests that (1) the Omicron virus may have been transmitted in Tianjin for almost 2 weeks; and (2) other travelers might have already carried the Omicron virus from Tianjin to elsewhere in China. Looking at the recent data, China's Covid outbreak this winter could be worse than in the previous winter - as shown in the chart below more provinces have detected Covid outbreaks this winter. Entering Q4, there are 12 provinces which have found more than 19 local cases in the past 14 days. More significantly, the total number of new cases in the past 14 days in Shann’xi has already exceeded 1500, which is a record high, except for in Hubei when Covid first occurred in early 2020, and this has happened despite China now having very high vaccination rates and strict regulations such as lockdowns. In addition, comparing the differences between months near Chinese New Year in 2021 and 2022, not only have the number of news cases been larger this year, the provinces hit by Covid outbreaks this year also tend to have higher GDP and population density. As Bloomberg adds, Henan and Guangdong, which also has an outbreak, are centers of electronics production. If cases continue rising there, it could impact the supply of iPhones and other smartphones. This also brings us to what Bloomberg calls the paradox of China’s aggressive “Covid-zero” strategy: while on one hand it helps contain the virus spread, to do so usually requires significant disruption or lockdowns as authorities limit the movement of people. The repeated mandatory testing of whole cities interrupts businessess and production, although nothing to the extent seen in places like the US, where the omicron wave caused an estimated 5 million people to stay home sick last week, leading to further economic slowdown (as discussed in "A March Rate Hike? Not So Fast") That risk of disruption for factories is already prompting companies to spread their risk by ensuring they have alternative production facilities, Stephanie Krishnan, a supply chain expert at IDC in Singapore, told Bloomberg. “We are starting to see companies mitigating risk, seeing where they can increase capabilities for production of different products in different factories so they can shift that around,” she said. Echoing what we said last night in "New Year Brings New All-Time High For Shipping's Epic Traffic Jam", Krishnan doesn’t see an end to the global supply crunch anytime soon and cautions it could take several years for the snarls to unwind. It’s a sobering outlook to start a year that many had hoped would mark the beginning of the end of the Big Crunch which dogged producers and consumers through much of last year. Clearly what happens next is critical, and how China’s control of the virus plays out will ultimately be crucial, said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre. Those companies whose supply chains are fully located inside China may be insulated by the country’s mitigation strategy. But that won’t apply to everyone, she said. “Lots of products in supply chains come from outside China,” Elms said. “Given challenges elsewhere, even zero Covid doesn’t solve all the issues of disruption.” * * * In its assessment of next steps, Deutsche Bank expects the government will try to contain the Omicron outbreak with more lockdowns and quarantines rather than taking a "live with Covid" approach. This will pose downside risks to near-term growth. The impact on consumption could be significant, although probably not as large as what happened in 2020. While Omicron is far less deadly than other Covid variants, it is still deadly enough to cause healthcare service shortages in China, at least in some regions. Vaccination has proven to be ineffective in preventing Omicron from spreading, and while it offers protection against hospitalization, China still has some 20% of the population who are not vaccinated and will face serious health risks if Omicron becomes widespread. As such, DB says that a containment approach is still the government's optimal choice for this winter regardless of how fast Omicron spreads in the next few weeks. It will be good news if travel restrictions, lockdowns and large-scale testing and contact tracing work in containing the outbreak. Even if outbreaks cannot be contained in some regions, these measures will still be considered necessary in flattening the curve and preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed nationwide. What is much more important for the US, global capital markets and the Fed's monetary policy - which has assumed much stronger growth in 2022 - is that China's Omicron outbreaks are significant downside risks for near-term consumption demand. Restrictions will likely be imposed nationwide to reduce travel before the Chinese New Year and encourage people to stay where they are. Cities where new cases were found will reimpose lockdowns and social distancing measures. The impact in each city will depend on local authorities. Experience from the past 2 years was that while some cities (such as Shenzhen and Shanghai) can manage outbreaks in a less disruptive way, other cities (such as Xi'an) have resorted to stricter and larger scale lockdowns, causing severe disruptions to consumption and service sector activities. Businesses such as restaurants, as well as those linked to travel, and leisure & entertainment will suffer from sharp revenue reductions or even temporary shutdowns. This may also cause temporary job and income losses and negatively impact consumer goods purchases. Retail sales growth dropped by 3ppt in Jan-Feb 2021 (in 2-year average terms). Retail sales might weaken again in Jan-Feb 2022, though the YoY growth rate might not drop much owing to the low base in 2021. Nevertheless, consumption will likely recover rapidly once lockdowns are lifted. Similar to what happened before, such negative shocks will likely be transitory and will be followed by strong recovery once lockdowns are lifted and businesses reopen. Still, the notorious bull-whip effect will emerge once again, as supply chains once again become stretched, and like in 2021 the question will be how the trade off between rising costs - as goods in transit end up stuck on a ship far longer than expected - and slowing growth will impact the Fed's view on what the optimal policy response is. While the Fed's prerogative for now is clearly to contain inflation, the reality is that much of the inflation experienced today is on the supply side, something which Brainard told the Senate in her confirmation hearing the Fed is powerless to address. Meanwhile, if we see a "surprise" drop in growth in the coming months, the Fed will have no choice but to delay or at least stagger its tightening as the last thing the Fed can afford to do is hike into another recession, which will then quickly be followed with even more easing.  Tyler Durden Thu, 01/13/2022 - 13:06.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytJan 13th, 2022

Retail And Hedge Funds Bought The Dip

Retail And Hedge Funds Bought The Dip There was a bit of confusion earlier this week when just as JPMorgan head of global strategy, Marko Kolanovic, was telling one set of bank clients to "buy the dip" (even as his boss Jamie Dimon was predicting a dramatic and risk swoon-inducing tightening in financial conditions, expecting more than 4 rate hikes), another veteran JPMorgan advisor, Bob Michele, who is the asset management group's fixed-income chief, said just the opposite and urged the bank's clients to "hide in cash", warning that the Fed put could be as much as 30% lower in the S&P: “The Fed would let the markets drop much further if their primary concern was battling inflation,” Michele said. “The strike of any put is likely to be declines of 15%–30% in equities, not 2%–3%.” And while Michele may well be right, it is now clear that most retail and hedge fund investors agreed with Kolanovic, and rushed to buy the dip both last week around the time of the uberhawkish FOMC Minutes, and in the days following, while institutional investors were actively selling their holdings. As Bank of America quant Jill Carey Hall wrote overnight, the bank's clients were "net buyers of US equities the first week of 2022($0.5B), during which the S&P 500 fell 1.9%. Clients bought both ETFs and stocks." As she further observes, retail and hedge funds clients led the buying last week even as institutional clients began the year with their biggest weekly outflows since mid-January of last year. Drilling down, the bank's clients bought stocks across all three size segments (large/mid/small). A breakdown of total client activity by sector. What is notable, and as Goldman recently observed, is that retail clients have typically been aggressive buyers in January while other groups have been sellers. According to Hall, January has been the strongest month, on average, for US equity inflows by BofA clients, and has seen net buying in 10 of the last 14 years. This confirms what we reported yesterday, citing JPM quant strategist Peng Cheng, who noted that retail bought $1.07 Billion on Tuesday, the third consecutive day of greater than $1 billion buying; and in the 93rd percentile of all days. Putting this in context, Black Friday net buying was $1.6bn, which was the highest on record. And while retail and hedge funds were BTFD, corporations were just as busy waving it in, and according to Bank of America, buybacks by corporate clients began the year strong, above early Jan. levels for the last few years including 2019 (pre-COVID), led by Tech, Health Care and Financials. Expect more buybacks: they typically accelerate in Jan/Feb during earnings (chart below) after seasonal weakness at year-end – though Dec’21 was stronger than usual (likely pull-forward ahead of potential tax reform risk in 2022), suggesting potentially less of a pick-up. Tyler Durden Wed, 01/12/2022 - 18:40.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJan 13th, 2022

QAnon networks are evading Twitter"s crackdown on disinformation to pump out pro-Capitol-riot propaganda, study says

According to a new study, large QAnon networks are evading Twitter's disinformation crackdown to flood the platform with disinformation. A person wears a QAnon sweatshirt during a pro-Trump rally on October 3, 2020 in the borough of Staten Island in New York City.Stephanie Keith/Getty Images QAnon accounts are evading Twitter's attempts to ban them, per research seen by Insider. Academic Laura Dilley described strategies that seem to skirt Twitter's enforcement efforts. The movement continues to spread conspiracy theories and glorify the Capitol riot. Networks of QAnon accounts are using unusual tactics to evade Twitter's ban on disinformation and flood the platform with conspiracy theories, a study shared with Insider found.Twitter has sought to prevent the QAnon movement from operating on its platform, purging more than 70,000 accounts in the wake of the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021.But, the study showed, large networks of supporters and influencers are continuing to operate there.Laura Dilley an associate professor in the Department of Communicative Sciences and Disorders at the University of Michigan, tracked their workings and shared the findings with Insider.Hashtag swapping, pop-up accounts and hard-to-track imagesDilley followed the rise of 4 networks promoting QAnon propaganda, operating from August 2020 to the present. Some of the constituent accounts were removed by Twitter in that timeframe, but many remained operative, Dilley told Insider. The most prominent network had 1,500 accounts, producing messages clustering around several core themes.They include false claims about the January 6 insurrection, conspiracy theories that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump, and a selection of far-right talking points. Many were closely tied with networks of white nationalist accounts. Other smaller ones clustered around wellness, or spirituality themes, highlighting how the political aspect of the movement overlaps with people hostile to mainstream scientific narratives. Dilley listed techniques she said were commonly used to evade Twitter bans:Replacing banned accounts with new ones under near-identical namesCommunicating QAnon messages via images, which are much harder to track and regulate.Using hashtags and phrases with small textual variations to evade automated bans."The networks were clearly fairly dynamic in their ability to change hashtags on the fly, for example WWG1WGA [a popular QAnon slogan meaning "Where we go one we go all"] is changed to WWGiWGA, which though a slight variant won't be picked up in automated searches for banned hashtags," said Dilley. The QAnon movement emerged in 2017, coalescing around the conspiracy theory that a child-abuse ring was being run by elites linked to the Democratic Party. Adherents revere Donald Trump as a saviour figure. After the January 6 insurrection there was a sweeping crackdown on the movement by the platform. QAnon adherents were on the front line at the Capitol attack, and the and the movement had vigorously embraced the false election-fraud claims that inspired the riot.Many were able to maintain a presence on the platform despite the crackdown, and rebuild their networks rapidly, partly using backup accounts. The users were able to make new profiles with "similar or identical profile pictures, often with Twitter handles that were variants of suspended account handle names," Dilley wrote. "Digital astroturfing" Dilley found that the networks often posted the same messages at the same time. Others were able to rapidly gain massive followings after similarly-named accounts were banned. This, to her, was a sign many accounts were so-called bots, automated accounts operating in a coordinated cluster rather than being run by real people.The use of automated accounts to spread disinformation is banned by the Twitter. Dilley called their coordinated activity "digital astroturfing", an allusion to covert "astroturfing" political campaigns that are designed to create an illusion of grassroots activism."This is the first research to definitively show evidence of digital astroturfing in the online promotion of QAnon on Twitter. Further, the research establishes that QAnon promotional activity on Twitter was closely linked with and indeed promoted by a wide variety of networks that span white nationalism," Dilley wrote in the study.  A source at Twitter disputed that large-scale automation was being allowed on the platform. The source requested anonymity, telling Insider that commenting by name on such issues often provokes death threats.The source said the company's efforts to suppress QAnon were made complex by it not being a single organization, like a terror group, but a set of overlapping conspiracy theories. Dilley's study builds on a 2020 Insider report that found pro-Trump operative Jason Sullivan, who billed himself "The Wizard of Twitter", operating an app that allowed users to give over their accounts to post coordinated messages.The app evaded Twitter's bot ban because the accounts were mostly behaving in authentic ways, but could behave with the coordination of bots for brief periods to push a desired message.Dilley suggested that the networks in her study could be using something similar to work together.She said that straight after starting up new accounts, QAnon influencers were able to rapidly gain large followings, further suggesting automation. The Twitter source said that they had detected no evidence of large-scale automation in the networks. Banned accounts could quickly gain large followings via backup accounts by coordinating on other platforms such as Telegram, said the source. Help from Russia?Parts of the networks, Dilley said, appear to be getting significant support from Russia.The accounts, some of which had tens of thousands of followers, were designed to appear as though they belonged to Trump-supporting Americans.They were highly active across all of the networks identified in the study, promoting QAnon propaganda in English. However the accounts would occasionally start tweeting in Russian, or use its Cyrillic script. One account unmasked itself as Russian seemingly by accident, Dilley said. The account posted the Russian word for fire, where it appeared to mean to have posted a fire emoji instead, said Dilley. The message was soon deleted, and the account resumed communicating in English. According to reports, Russian intelligence has sought to boost the QAnon movement. It may even have helped to seed the "pizzagate" conspiracy theory, a key precursor of the movement, Rolling Stone reported in 2017. The Twitter source pushed back against suggestions that Russian security agencies were involved. They said that QAnon was a highly global movement, and that its claims are circulated and promoted by users in various countries.They said that the accounts identified as possible Russian actors by Dilley were more likely ordinary Russians engaging with QAnon themes.Dilley said that the study exposes serious failings by Twitter to halt disinformation on its platform in the wake of the Jan 6 riot. "Unless Twitter gets serious in its commitment to keeping permanently banned individuals off of its platform, the company will continue to be morally culpable for enabling activities of spreading disinformation, fomenting civil unrest, and undermining democracy," she said. Twitter did not provide a response on the record.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 6th, 2022

How Russia"s "Blackjack" bomber survived the Cold War and has remained on the frontlines all over the world

Russia has doubled-down on the "White Swan," rebuilding and upgrading its fleet of Tu-160s for global operations. A Russian Tu-160 bomber during a military parade in Minsk for Belarus Independence Day, July 3, 2019.Reuters Introduced in the 1980s, the Tu-160 bomber remains the largest and fastest supersonic bomber in service. The Blackjack's most important mission was and remains to approach North America and launch its missiles. In recent years, Moscow has rebuilt its dilapidated Tu-160 force and sent it on missions around the world. Tu-160: a history — As tensions escalate between Russia and Ukraine, the latter is ironically at risk of being bombarded by aircraft and missiles it sold back to Russia 22 years ago at a bargain price.Among modern military aircraft, few are as majestic yet utterly destructive in purpose as Russia's Tupolev Tu-160 strategic bomber, dubbed the White Swan ("Belyj Lebeď") and codenamed Blackjack by NATO.Capable of ranging far across the globe and unleashing a dozen nuclear weapons from standoff range, the Tu-160 remains by far the largest and fastest supersonic bomber in service. Moscow claims it will build dozens more even as China and the US develop stealth bombers instead.The Tu-160 was in its origins a reflexive product of the Cold War arms race. Though by the 1960s the Kremlin decided intercontinental ballistic missiles were more practical nuclear delivery systems than heavy bombers, it nonetheless began the development of a supersonic strategic bomber to match the US's huge, Mach 3-capable XB-70 Valkyrie.Though the Valkyrie was canceled and replaced by the less ambitious B-1, the Soviets nonetheless tapped Tupolev to build a Soviet counter in 1972. Tupolev drafted several designs before settling in 1977 on the Project 160M design informed by the Tu-22M Backfire swing-wing supersonic bomber.A Russian Tu-160 bomber during the first day of the MAKS-2005 international air show outside Moscow, August 16, 2005.Viktor Korotayev/REUTERSThe Tu-160 made its first flight in December 1981 and entered operational service in 1987. The behemoth bomber, weighing in at 129 tons empty, mounted four extremely powerful Kuznetsov NK-32 afterburning turbojet engines — the largest on any combat aircraft! — onto an airframe with gigantic wings spanning more than half a football field (54 meters) from wingtip to wingtip.Moreover, those massive wings could swing between three positions: fully extended at 20 degrees to maximize lift, then swept back to 35 degrees to reduce drag for subsonic cruising, and tucked fully back to 65 degrees when sprinting at the maximum speed of Mach 2.05 using afterburners.The airframe's aerodynamically unstable characteristics were automatically compensated for by a quadruple-redundant fly-by-wire system.The Tu-160 could carry enough fuel to fly 7,500 miles with a 50% missile payload, and its retractable refueling probe enabled even greater ranges if desired. A crew of four operates the bomber on its long-distance missions — pilot and co-pilot seated side by side in the front, and two navigators individually sub-specialized in weapons and self-defense systems.Entering service the same year as the US supersonic B-1B Lancer bomber, which it resembled in some respects, the Tu-160 was much larger and had a 70% faster maximum speed. However, the Lancer had a slighter radar signature and would evolve to employ a wider range of weapons, though it was stripped of nuclear weapons capability in the 2010s.A Russian Tu-160 during an intercept by Belgian F-16s.NATO/ Belgian Air ForceThough capable of conventional attacks, the Blackjack's most important mission was, and remains, to approach close enough to North America to release up to a dozen cruise missiles each with nuclear warheads 17 times the yield of the Fat Man bomb dropped on Hiroshima.The most promising approach vector for the Tu-160 was via the Arctic, but that still entailed evading detection and interception by US and Canadian land-based radars, interceptors and AWACS airborne early-warning aircraft. And just getting there would take many hours, as the Blackjack cruised at 600 mph, the speed of a 747 airliner.To stave off crew burnout, Tu-160 designers thoughtfully included massage-rollers in the crew's zero-altitude ejection seats, a galley kitchen and a toilet in the aft crew compartment.Though Tupolev designers made some efforts to reduce Radar Cross-Section, at 10-15 square meters the Tu-160's signature remains comparable to an F-15 fighter. Thus, Tu-160 crew would approach at low altitude to minimize detection range, using its Sopka terrain-following radar to avoid ground collision.Passive warning receivers would inform the crew once they were detected, at which point they could employ a self-defense radar jammer and light up the afterburners to surge to Mach 2 to evade interceptors.A Tu-160 Blackjack bomber over the Red Square during the Victory Day parade in Moscow, May 9, 2015.REUTERS/Host Photo Agency/RIA NovostiThe Tu-160's raison d'etre were the weapons in its two 11-meter-long weapon bays: up to 12 turbofan-powered Kh-55 cruise missiles in rotary launchers with 250-kiloton warheads. Indeed, the bomber's iconic white paint scheme is designed to reflect thermal radiation from a nuclear blast.The Kh-55s would skim at 300 feet above the surface, navigating toward a programmed target up to 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles) away using inertial and terrain-contour-matching navigation systems. Tu-160s could also launch the conventional-warhead Kh-555 variant, and the Kh-55SM with range extended to 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles).Blackjacks could also be tasked with attacking US carrier strike groups across the globe using an alternate payload of up to 24 Kh-15 air-launched ballistic missiles with a range of 186 miles. These dual nuclear/conventional-capable weapons arc high after launch before plummeting down on maritime or land targets at over five times the speed of sound, guided by either by radar or a radar-homing seeker.There were also unrealized plans to create a Tu-161 long-range interceptor for hunting NATO maritime patrol planes, a Tu-160PP electronic warfare jet, a Tu-160R reconnaissance plane, and even Blackjacks modified to carry supersonic drones or Burlak air-launched satellite deployment vehicles.From Soviet Union to Ukraine to RussiaA Russian Tu-160 bomber, known as the White Swan, lands at Engels Air Base near Saratov.Misha Japaridze/APJust two Tu-160s squadrons were operational when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 — and of the 36 Tu-160s built (including several prototypes), 19 were in the 184th Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment based at Pryluky Airbase in Ukraine, and thus grandfathered into the new Ukrainian Air Force. Four more airframes remained unassembled.The heavy bombers proved too expensive for cash-strapped Ukraine to regularly fly or even maintain.After NATO-Russia tensions flared in 1999 due to the Kosovo war, the Kremlin sought to buy Tu-160s and their missiles back from Ukraine to flesh out its own impractically small fleet. But Moscow was also short on money and couldn't meet Kiev's $3 billion asking price.In the end, Russia acquired eight of the huge bombers and 575 cruise missiles from Ukraine in exchange for cancellation of $285 million in natural gas debt owed to Moscow. Ukraine scrapped the rest, save for one on display at the Poltava Museum of Heavy Bomber Aviation.White Swan, nuclear troll, Syrian scattershotA Tu-160 strategic bomber.Alexei Panov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via APMoscow subsequently strove to rebuild its dilapidated Tu-160 force by refurbishing aircraft and building unassembled airframes, funding permitting — though one Tu-160 and its crew were lost in a 2003 crash.By 2021 Russia officially had 16 or 17 operational Tu-160s, though no more than 11 have been seen deployed at one time, grouped into the 121st Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment based at Engels airbase in Saratov, Russia. Most are named after famous Russian historical or fictional personages.When Putin announced the resumption of strategic bomber patrols in 2006, the small Blackjack force and more numerous Tu-95 Bear bombers were at the forefront of Moscow's campaign to remind everybody it could still dispatch nuclear-armed bombers to buzz by a country's airspace.Blackjacks could tweak Washington for example with layovers in Venezuela and Nicaragua (on one occasion violating Colombian airspace) or be deployed near Alaska. Some of these patrols, aided by in-flight refueling, set new records for endurance, with Tu-160s staying airborne 23 hours in 2010, and then 25 hours in 2020 while traversing over 12,400 miles.Blackjacks were finally combat-tested in 2015, launching dozens of new Kh-101 conventional stealth cruise missiles to strikes anti-Assad insurgents in Syria in November 2015 and again in 2016. The 2015 missile attacks tended to fall wildly off-target, though it's unknown how many misses came from Kh-101s rather than Kh-555 missiles launched by Tu-95s.In theory, however, the Kh-101 conventional and Kh-102 nuclear missiles constitute a major upgrade, extending range to 4,000 kilometers (2,485 miles), and boasting greater stealth, re-targetability after launch and improved precision.Second act for the White SwanRussian Tu-160 bombers during a Kazakh-Russian military exercise west of Almaty, October 3, 2008.Thomson ReutersUnlike the US Air Force, which seems skeptical its B-1B bombers bring enough added value over B-52s, the Kremlin is doubling down on the Tu-160.First of all, Russia is modernizing Tu-160s to the Tu-160M2 model, installing more fuel-efficient NK-32-02 engines expected to increase range by over 600 miles, GLONASS satellite-navigation systems, a digitized glass cockpit, and new AESA radar.It also includes the application of radar-absorbent materials to the canopy which may modestly reduce the bomber's radar signature, new defensive countermeasures. Finally, there's the integration of the Kh-101/102 missiles and possibly air-launched Kinzhal hypersonic weapon, giving the Tu-160 more effective and survivable weaponry.Russia's Defense Ministry has also ordered production of 10 new Tu-160Ms at the Kazan factory out of an eventual planned 50 more of the Soviet-era jet bombers for 900 billion rubles, with production ostensibly to peak at three per year.Russian Tu-160 bomber over the Baltic Sea, April 29, 2020.ReutersThis is in part due to delays developing the PAK-DA stealth bomber. However, given the high cost of new Tu-160 production (ostensibly 16 billion rubles or $218 million per aircraft) and the arthritic state of Russian defense financing, observers are skeptical Moscow can sustain such an expensive and ambitious program, especially once the supply of unassembled or un-refurbished Tu-160 airframes is exhausted.After all, that funds could go to the PAK-DA or more expendable stealth combat drones. However, the money and effort already devoted to the Tu-160 suggest Russia's Blackjack fleet is likely to continue ticking upward in the 2020s.Still, Moscow seemingly values the conspicuous global power projection the large bomber flights provide.Moreover, attempts to renew procurement seemingly reflect faith that the White Swan and its modernized standoff-range cruise missiles have acceptable odds of penetrating US air defenses, even if some Russian critics harbor doubts.Sébastien Roblin writes on the technical, historical and political aspects of international security and conflict for publications including the 19FortyFive, The National Interest, NBC News, and War is Boring. He holds a naster's degree from Georgetown University and served with the Peace Corps in China. You can follow his articles on Twitter.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 3rd, 2022

5 Most Loved ETFs of 2021

Investors poured about $900 billion in new assets into U.S.-listed ETFs in 2021. The U.S. stock market ended 2021 with double-digit annual gains for the third consecutive year. With a skyrocketing stock market, the global ETF industry is also booming, breaking new records in terms of inflows. This is especially true as investors poured about $900 billion in new assets into U.S.-listed ETFs in 2021.The record inflows in ETFs were driven by the rise in the stock market and a lack of high-yielding alternatives. The low-cost passively managed U.S. funds that track indexes run by Vanguard Group, BlackRock and State Street, which together control more than 75% of all U.S. ETF assets, were the biggest money pullers in 2021. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF VOO, Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF VTI, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF IVV, and Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ led the asset flow list last year.Passively managed funds were attractive, courtesy of their unique strategies, creativity, transparency, diversification benefits, enhanced tax competencies, low turnover and, of course, low cost. Additionally, new actively managed fund launches in the space with narrow themes or unfilled niche markets drove demand. More than half of the record 380 ETFs launched in the United States in 2021 are actively managed, according to FactSet. Further, ETFs that hold inflation-protected bonds also enjoyed a surge in investor interest due to the rise in inflation. However, these still represent a small proportion of the total inflows (read: 5 Hot ETFs of 2021 Driving Global Inflows to Record $1T).Let’s delve into the five ETFs in detail below:SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust topped asset flow creation last year, gathering $103 billion in capital. It tracks the S&P 500 Index and holds 505 stocks in its basket, with each accounting for no more than 7% of assets. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is heavy on the information technology sector, while healthcare, consumer discretionary, financials and communication services rounding off the next four spots with a double-digit allocation each.SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust charges investors 9 bps in annual fees and trades in an average daily volume of 65.5 million shares. It has AUM of $455 billion and a Zacks ETF Rank #2 (Buy) with a Medium risk outlook.Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)Vanguard S&P 500 ETF accumulated $88.3 billion in capital. It tracks the S&P 500 Index and holds 512 stocks in its basket, each accounting for more than 6.6% of assets. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is heavy on the information technology sector while consumer discretionary, healthcare, financials and communication services round off its next four spots with a double-digit allocation each.Vanguard S&P 500 ETF charges investors 3 bps in annual fees and trades in an average daily volume of 5 million shares. It has AUM of $280.2 billion and a Zacks ETF Rank #2 (Buy) with a Medium risk outlook (read: 5 Top ETF Stories of 2021 That May Influence 2022 Trends).Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF gathered $85.7 billion in capital, taking its total AUM to $299.4 billion. It provides exposure to the broader stock market by tracking the CRSP US Total Market Index. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF holds a large basket of well-diversified 4,156 stocks with key holdings in technology, consumer discretionary, industrials, healthcare and financials.Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF charges 3 bps in fees per year from investors and trades in an average daily volume of 3.6 million shares. VTI has a Zacks ETF Rank #2 with a Medium risk outlook.iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV)iShares Core S&P 500 ETF pulled in $82.5 billion in capital. It tracks the S&P 500 Index and holds 505 stocks in its basket, each accounting for no more than 7% of assets. IVV is heavy on the information technology sector, while healthcare, consumer discretionary, financials and communication round off its next four spots with a double-digit allocation each.iShares Core S&P 500 ETF charges investors 3 bps in annual fees and trades in an average daily volume of 4.6 million shares. It has AUM of $335.9 billion and a Zacks ETF Rank #2 with a Medium risk outlook.Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)Invesco QQQ gathered about $53.6 billion in its asset base last year. QQQ provides exposure to the 101 largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq by tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index. Invesco QQQ is heavily concentrated on the top two firms with a double-digit allocation, while other firms hold no more than 6.8% of assets. The product is also heavily tilted toward information technology at 51%, while communication services and consumer discretionary round off the next two spots (read: Best-Performing ETFs of Fourth Quarter).Invesco QQQ is one of the largest and most popular ETFs in the large-cap space, with AUM of $217.2 billion and an average daily volume of 46 million shares. QQQ charges investors 20 bps in annual fees and has a Zacks ETF Rank #2 with a Medium risk outlook.  Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week.Get it free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Invesco QQQ (QQQ): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI): ETF Research Reports Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO): ETF Research Reports iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV): ETF Research Reports To read this article on click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksJan 3rd, 2022

3 Gold Mining Stocks to Buy as Experts Expect Gold Rally in 2022

Fears about the impact of the Omicron coronavirus variant on the global economy, inflation, and elevated demand will support gold prices in 2022. We suggest buying stocks like SA, FURY and USAU. We are in the last trading week of 2021 and gold is currently trading at around $1,813 an ounce. The metal has held its ground lately as the spread of the Omicron variant has renewed fears that it might derail the ongoing global economic recovery. It has also quelled investors’ appetite for riskier assets, thus lifting bullion’s safe-haven appeal and bringing investors back to gold.Gold is anticipated to gain further in 2022 on the back of uncertainty regarding the coronavirus variant, continued inflation and geopolitical tensions; we suggest buying stocks like Seabridge Gold SA, Fury Gold Mines FURY and US Gold Corp USAU.Gold’s Run So Far This YearGold’s sailing has not been smooth this year due to a myriad of reasons — the rollout of vaccinations, ongoing economic recovery, lack of investment demand and consistent dollar strength. The yellow metal has shed its value 4.3% so far this year, suggesting that it is headed for the first annual loss since 2018. This is in stark contrast to last year’s growth of 24.6% — the strongest annual increase in a decade. The stellar performance was primarily due to the safe-haven demand stemming from the uncertainty amid by the COVID-19 pandemic and low interest rates. Gold had even crossed the $2,000 an ounce milestone — the first time in history.Gold has averaged around $1,806 an ounce so far in 2021. Gold prices have been weighed down mainly by low investment demand for a major part of the year, which overshadowed strength in demand in other sectors. Jewelry demand has been high aided by the ongoing global recovery. Technology demand has also been on the rise and back to pre-pandemic levels, driven by the continued recovery in electronics. On the supply side, even though mine production has picked up steadily owing to fewer COVID-19 production interruptions compared to last year, recycling activity remained weak due to lower gold prices.The lack of a spike in gold prices made investors apathetic toward the yellow metal. It was a solid year for equities, with all major market indexes racking up healthy returns year to date. A stronger greenback has not helped either, as the U.S. dollar and gold prices are generally inversely correlated. The U.S. dollar index is up around 7% this year. A stronger US dollar offsets higher inflation expectations and stable interest rates, preventing the precious metal from holding onto the gains. Also, several market commentators are suggesting that investment flows may have switched from gold to cryptocurrencies this year.On a positive note, per the latest report by the World Gold Council, gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows of 13.6 tons ($838 million) in November — the first month of positive flows since July. Global gold-backed ETF holdings recovered from the year-to-date lows seen in October to 3,578 tons ($208 billion) in November. This was driven by the resumption of investment demand for larger gold ETFs amid decades-high inflation and heightened market volatility. Central banks in developed markets added to their gold reserves for the first time since 2013, per the World Gold Council. This holds promise for gold.Expectations for 2022According to experts, the negative risk appetite, fueled by the Omicron worries and US Treasury yields being low that reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion, will support gold prices in 2022. The Omicron-led uncertainty could lead to a more dovish central bank stance in 2022. Issues over the domestic investment bill and the geopolitical risks around Ukraine will also boost gold’s appeal.The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE index), one of the main measures of inflation and consumer spending trends in the U.S. economy, surged 5.7% in November, reflecting increases in both goods and services. This was the highest since 1982. The Consumer Price Index, another key inflation metric rose 6.8% in November, also the highest since 1982. This has bolstered expectations that elevated inflation is likely to persist. Gold is widely considered as a hedge against inflation and market uncertainties.In 2022, demand for gold will be supported by growing jewelry and technology demand, and central bank purchases. Demand for physical gold is seasonally higher starting in the later part of the year aided by the festival and wedding season in India, followed by Chinese Lunar Year and Valentine's Day. Demand in India has been strong lately on pent-up demand, improving economic momentum and consumer confidence.India and China that roughly account for around 50% of consumer gold demand will continue to sustain demand for gold. Use of gold across energy, healthcare and technology is on the rise. So, there will be an eventual demand-supply imbalance that is likely to drive gold prices, which bodes well for the industry.We have handpicked three gold-mining stocks, which carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and are poised to perform well in 2022. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.3 Gold Stocks to BuySeabridge Gold: The company holds a 100% interest in several North American gold resource projects. The company's principal assets are the KSM and Iskut properties located near Stewart, British Columbia, Canada and the Courageous Lake gold project located in Canada's Northwest Territories. KSM is the world’s largest undeveloped project by gold resources. The acquisition of Snowfield is expected to increase KSM’s existing reserves and enhance project economics. The company recently engaged in an exploration and drilling program in Iskut, which continues to point toward a potential large gold-copper porphyry system. It intends to further explore the Iskut, Snowstorm and 3 Aces projects for selling or entering into joint venture arrangements with major mining companies. The company’s debt-free balance sheet provides it a competitive edge.Seabridge Gold ranks first in gold and copper reserves among major listed gold companies.  From 2003 to 2020, the company’s gold resources have grown by 915%. It strives to provide shareholders with exceptional leverage to a rising gold price. Over the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s 2022 earnings has moved up 18%.Fury Gold Mines: The company is a Canadian-focused gold exploration company strategically positioned in three prolific mining regions: James Bay (Quebec), the Golden Triangle (British Columbia) and the Kitikmeot Region (Nunavut). It has recently entered into an agreement to divest its 100% interest in the Homestake Ridge gold-silver project that will simplify its portfolio. The company recently announced results from the Three Bluffs deposit expansion drilling at its Committee Bay project in the Kitikmeot region of Nunavut. These are the best drill results the project has seen in five years and present a very promising achievement for the project. The high-grade hole opens up considerable expansion opportunities and confirms that Committee Bay represents a major gold exploration opportunity. It provided results for six core drill holes at the Eau Claire project located in the EeyouIstchee Territory in the James Bay region of Quebec. The drilling focused on demonstrating the potential to expand the deposit to the west on both the Hinge and Limb target areas signals that this resource has room to grow.Fury Gold continues to aggressively grow and advance its multi-million-ounce gold platform through careful project assessment and exploration excellence. It has set a goal to spend at least 70% of funds on exploration and drilling activities. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s 2022 earnings indicates year-over-year growth of 27%. Over the past 60 days, the estimates have moved up 5%.US Gold Corp: USAU is a U.S.-focused gold exploration and development company advancing high potential projects in mining-friendly jurisdictions of Wyoming, Nevada and Idaho. Its exploration efforts combine deep experience with state-of-the-art leading-edge technology to help it drive towards exploration success. It is advancing the CK Gold Project located in southeast Wyoming. The company recently provided a prefeasibility study ("PFS") for its CK Gold Project and has published its SK-1300 Technical Report Summary. The project appears to be very attractive with robust project economics. It currently has proven and probable mineral reserves of 1.01 million ounces of gold and 248 million pounds of copper. Its strong liquidity position and no debt positions it well for growth.Over the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2022 earnings has moved up 33%. The estimates currently indicate year-over-year growth of 17%. Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2022 In addition to the investment ideas discussed above, would you like to know about our 10 top picks for the entirety of 2022? From inception in 2012 through November, the Zacks Top 10 Stocks gained an impressive +962.5% versus the S&P 500’s +329.4%. Now our Director of Research is combing through 4,000 companies covered by the Zacks Rank to handpick the best 10 tickers to buy and hold. Don’t miss your chance to get in on these stocks when they’re released on January 3.Be First to New Top 10 Stocks >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Seabridge Gold, Inc. (SA): Free Stock Analysis Report US Gold Corp (USAU): Free Stock Analysis Report Fury Gold Mines Limited (FURY): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 28th, 2021

Thermo Fisher (TMO) Releases New Update for Omicron Detection

Thermo Fisher's (TMO) TaqMan SARS-CoV-2 Mutation Panel currently offers direct identification of the novel variant of concern. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.’s TMO Applied Biosystems TaqMan SARS-CoV-2 Mutation Panel has been recently updated to detect the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant directly. The Omicron variant was initially identified in November 2021 by South African researchers. Since its discovery, this novel SARS-CoV-2 variant has been detected in dozens of countries.The discovery of the Omicron variant has inspired more research into the variant's potential for greater transmissibility or its ability to undermine vaccine protection. The new assays were created two weeks after the Omicron was designated as a variant of concern by the World Health Organization, allowing public health laboratories to adapt their surveillance testing programs quickly.Per Thermo Fisher management, the emergence of the Omicron variant has reinforced the importance of continued surveillance testing. The TaqMan Mutation Panel can be easily adjusted to test for such emerging variants, enabling laboratories to conduct large-scale surveillance testing at this stage of the pandemic. This will help public health agencies to keep track of the Omicron variant and evaluate whether countermeasures are required to curb its spread.Few Words on TaqMan SARS-CoV-2 Mutation PanelThe TaqMan SARS-CoV-2 Mutation Panel features a customizable menu of real-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) genotyping assays to detect known SARS-COV-2 variants in slightly over an hour accurately. This panel works with real-time PCR instruments commonly used in laboratories worldwide. Notably, laboratories can develop their panel by selecting from a menu of more than 50 known mutations of SARS-CoV-2, which is highly scalable, running up to several hundred samples to monitor for one or many mutations simultaneously. This allows laboratories to be more adaptable in response to local testing needs.Industry ProspectsPer a report by Fortune Business Insights published in GlobeNewswire, the global COVID-19 diagnostics market is expected to see a CAGR of 7.9% from 2020 to 2027. The uncontrolled spread of coronavirus and several efforts undertaken by medical and regulatory bodies to encourage innovation and accelerate research in the development of coronavirus detection tools are projected to drive market growth.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchGiven the market prospects, the latest update to Thermo Fisher’s TaqMan SARS-CoV-2 Mutation Panel to enable direct detection of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant seems well-timed.Notable DevelopmentsThermo Fisher has engaged in a number of significant developments in December 2021.The company gained premarket approval from the FDA for its Oncomine Dx Target Test as a companion diagnostic (CDx) to help identify non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) Exon20-insertion mutations, who might benefit from treatment with Janssen Biotech’ Inc.'s targeted therapy RYBREVANT (amivantamab-vmjw). This authorization marks the second time Oncomine Dx Target Test has been approved as a CDx for EGFR Exon20 insertion mutant patients.The company completed its $17.4-billion acquisition of PPD, Inc., a renowned global contract research organization (CRO) providing clinical research services to the biopharma and biotech industry. PPD will be integrated into Thermo Fisher's Laboratory Products and Services segment. This buyout will expand Thermo Fishers’ global reach in the attractive, high-growth clinical research services industry.Share Price PerformanceThe stock has outperformed its industry over the past year. It has rallied 42% compared to the industry’s growth of 9.5%.Zacks Rank and Other Key PicksCurrently, Thermo Fisher carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).Other top-ranked stocks in the broader medical space are Apollo Endosurgery, Inc. APEN, McKesson Corporation MCK and West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. WST, each carrying a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Apollo Endosurgery has a long-term earnings growth rate of 7%. The company surpassed earnings estimates in the trailing four quarters, delivering a surprise of 25.6%, on average.Apollo Endosurgery has outperformed its industry over the past year. APEN has gained 118.4% versus the 9.5% industry growth.McKesson has a long-term earnings growth rate of 9%. The company surpassed earnings estimates in the trailing four quarters, delivering a surprise of 19.9%, on average.McKesson has outperformed its industry over the past year. MCK has gained 41% versus the 14.1% industry rise.West Pharmaceutical has a long-term earnings growth rate of 27.6%. The company surpassed earnings estimates in the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 29.4%.West Pharmaceutical has outperformed its industry over the past year. WST has rallied 62.5% versus the industry’s 14% rise. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO): Free Stock Analysis Report McKesson Corporation (MCK): Free Stock Analysis Report West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. (WST): Free Stock Analysis Report Apollo Endosurgery, Inc. (APEN): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 24th, 2021

Spiderman Mines Crypto: New Torrent Malware Discovered

Hackers and digital criminals are smart. They know how to ensnare today’s consumers and online browsers in their web – by grabbing their attention with the latest trends. Perhaps this is why around 714 million attempted ransomware attacks (134% more than in 2020) were recorded for 2021. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more […] Hackers and digital criminals are smart. They know how to ensnare today’s consumers and online browsers in their web – by grabbing their attention with the latest trends. Perhaps this is why around 714 million attempted ransomware attacks (134% more than in 2020) were recorded for 2021. .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Digital access to new movies is one of the most exciting lures today’s malware minions can get their hands on. Spiderman: No Way Home is an excellent example. The movie is one of the most talked-about in the cinematic industry right now. It opened to an official $260 million in earnings, making it the second-biggest box office debut in history. Viewers are keen to get their hands on the movie any way they can, including downloading “leaked” versions from the web. Unfortunately, many desirable files on the internet are often too good to be true. That’s what researchers from ReasonLabs discovered when they uncovered hidden crypto-mining malware threaded into the code of a torrent download for No Way Home. Mining Cryptocurrency With Spiderman ReasonLabs, a cybersecurity detection and prevention software company, reports that the Spiderman malware is intended to mine Monero (XMR), a kind of untraceable, anonymous cryptocurrency commonly used in the Dark Web. Like most clever criminal files, the malware identifies as spiderman_net_putidomoi.torrent.exe, which basically translates from Russian to the no_wayhome torrent. Currently, the malware isn’t signed and written for .net, and it isn’t active in the Virus Total listings. When a user downloads the file, assuming it’s a Spiderman torrent, the code gets to work with svchost.exe, adding exclusions to Windows Defender, spawning watchdogs to help maintain activity, and creating persistence strategies. While you might not be able to see anything happening, the attack will instantly force your computer to start mining cryptocurrency without your knowledge. You might notice the damage in your electricity bill, as your devices draw more power to mine. Miners also generally require high CPU usage, which means your computer functionality will likely slow down too. You might not notice anything until your PC starts to lag, and your electricity bill shoots through the roof. How Did ReasonLabs Find The Malware? ReasonLabs discovered the Spiderman malware (full report here) during a routine search of the files in their database. The company has an astronomical malware database and frequently comes across suspicious files during routine checks. When a suspicious file is encountered, ReasonLabs flags them and cross-checks their presence with other databases. A ReasonLabs user downloaded the Spiderman file, and it was instantly recognized by the database as a new threat. According to ReasonLabs, it’s difficult to say for certain how many times the torrent file has been downloaded, but there’s some evidence the technology has been around for quite some time. Before masquerading as Spiderman, this malware was previously disguised as things like Discord, the Windows Updater, and so on. ReasonLabs is now actively researching the origins of the miner and hopes to provide some additional insights to the public soon. However, there’s a good chance a number of people have already been affected by the issue. Crypto-Miners Becoming A Major Issue The marketplace is becoming more heavily saturated with security issues in today’s digital world, as people spend more time online. Attaching crypto-miners to blockbuster movie files isn’t exactly a new concept. It’s something miners have been using for years to try to trick people into downloading their files. “We’re constantly seeing miners deployed in the guise of common programs, interesting files, popular apps and so on,” ReasonLabs wrote. “Crypto-miners hidden in this technology got very popular in the past few years because they offer easy money.” Attaching malware designed for crypto-mining in the background is called “cryptojacking.” Cybercriminals attach their malware to popular files like the Spiderman film so that they can exponentially increase their crypto mining capability. The more computing power a miner has, the more cryptocurrency they can generate. It’s much cheaper to cryptojack a bunch of computers than it is to invest in a large number of expensive crypto mining rigs. Additionally, Trend Micro warns that the threat to cryptojacked computers goes beyond performance issues, drastically increased power consumption, and wear and tear on the affected machines. The firm said that between January 1 and June 24, 2017, its sensors detected almost 4,900 bitcoin miners that triggered over 460,000 bitcoin-mining activities. Trend Micro found that over 20% of the miners also triggered web- and network-based attacks. Files like those promising to be torrents of Spiderman: No Way Home give hackers access to as many victims as possible for their crypto efforts by fooling them into thinking they can get their hands on something they desperately want. Updated on Dec 23, 2021, 4:12 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkDec 23rd, 2021

7 Staffers In Top Pentagon Delegation Test Positive For Covid, Despite All Being Vaxxed

7 Staffers In Top Pentagon Delegation Test Positive For Covid, Despite All Being Vaxxed Despite the Pentagon recently touting that across armed services and the DoD about 97-98% of all personnel have been fully vaccinated, there's been a new Covid outbreak among the highest ranks. "Seven staffers who traveled with Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks last week tested positive for COVID-19, the Pentagon announced," according to The Hill. She's the second highest ranking Pentagon official in the United States government, and on that trip last week had traveled to several large US military bases.  Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen H. Hicks (center). File image: DOD Hicks herself has so far tested negative for Covid-19, according to a follow-up statement by Pentagon press secretary John Kirby. He said that contact tracing is still ongoing.  "We are also contacting hotels, bases and support personnel who may have come in contact with the traveling party," Kirby added. The high level nature of the delegation means that the infected staff members would have come into contact with top Generals and Colonels and other officers at multiple bases and command centers. The Hill lists that the deputy Pentagon chief visited the following: "the Selfridge Air National Guard Base in Michigan, then traveled to Colorado to visit the U.S. Northern Command, U.S. Space Command, and the U.S. Space Force Space Training and Readiness Command." "Hicks also visited the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii, the Naval Amphibious Base Coronado in California; and the U.S. Strategic Command in Nebraska." The staff members who tested positive are currently in quarantine, with Kirby underscoring upon announcing the small outbreak that "We continue to treat the prevention of the spread of COVID-19 with utmost seriousness and care." Meanwhile, the Army, Air Force, and Marines have begun the process for discharging hundreds of service members who failed to get vaccinated by their respective branch deadlines. "The Army said it has reprimanded more than 2,700 soldiers and will begin discharge proceedings in January, while the Air Force has discharged at least 27 members," NBC recently reported. The Omicron variant has begun to appear within the US military... NEW: More than 360,000 boosters doses or third doses have been given at DoD facilities: Pentagon official. DoD has detected 10 cases of the Omicron COVID-19 variant within the military health system so far, spokesman John Kirby said in emailed statement. — Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) December 20, 2021 But the deeply awkward irony remains, underscored in these latest infections among the Pentagon's highest ranks: without doubt those officers and staffers traveling with Deputy Secretary Hicks were fully vaccinated - and possibly also had received the booster as well. And yet the vaccine did not prevent infection in these cases. Tyler Durden Thu, 12/23/2021 - 17:15.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 23rd, 2021

5 ETFs Most Loved by Investors Last Week

Dec 10-16 was a bumper week for the broad market ETFs with a net inflow of $78.2 billion. Dec 10-16 was a bumper week for the broad market ETFs with a net inflow of $78.2 billion. This brings inflows of $895.4 billion year to date. About half of the inflows came on Dec 16 following the Fed’s decision and volatility arising from the Omicron COVID-19 variant. U.S. equity ETFs remained the major money puller with $66.7 billion, closely followed by $9.9 billion in international equity ETFs and $133.4 million in U.S. fixed-income ETFs, per S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF VTI, Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF VO, iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF IVW and Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ dominated the top asset-creation list last week.Stock Market SynopsysWall Street saw a tumultuous week with the major bourses in red. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index underperformed, declining 2.9% while the S&P 500 Index and the blue-chip Dow Jones Index dropped 1.9 and 1.7%, respectively (read: Forget Omicron: Tap S&P 500 ETFs for At Least 6% Gains in 2022).The decline came on the back of a rapid surge in the Omicron COVID-19 cases. A study warned that the rapidly spreading Omicron was five times more likely to reinfect people than its predecessor, Delta. Additionally, European countries geared up for further travel and social restrictions. The losses were also backed by year-end tax selling and the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts (known as triple witching).Further, the Fed’s more aggressive unwinding of its pandemic-era monthly bond buying led to a selloff in growth stocks, especially technology. The central bank plans to buy $60 billion per month of bonds in combined Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities starting in January, down from $90 billion in December and 120 billion from the start of the pandemic through November.We have detailed the ETFs below:SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust topped asset flow creation last week, gathering $9.1 billion in capital. It tracks the S&P 500 Index and holds 505 stocks in its basket, with each accounting for no more than 7% of assets. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is heavy on the information technology sector, while healthcare, consumer discretionary, financials and communication services round off the next four spots with a double-digit allocation each.SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust charges investors 9 bps in annual fees and trades in an average daily volume of 62.3 million shares. It has AUM of $440.1 billion and a Zacks ETF Rank #2 (Buy) with a Medium risk outlook.Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF has gathered $1.1 billion in capital, taking its total AUM to $297 billion. It provides exposure to the broader stock market by tracking the CRSP US Total Market Index. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF holds a large basket of well-diversified 4,156 stocks with key holdings in technology, consumer discretionary, industrials, healthcare and financials.Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF charges 3 bps in fees per year from investors and trades in an average daily volume 3.4 million shares. VTI has a Zacks ETF Rank #2 with a Medium risk outlook (read: 5 Hot ETFs of 2021 Driving Global Inflows to Record $1T).Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF (VO)Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF pulled in $3.2 billion in capital last week. It targets the mid-cap segment of the broad stock market and tracks the CRSP US Mid Cap Index. Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF holds 383 stocks with a well-diversified portfolio as each firm holds no more than 1% of the total assets. The fund has key holdings in technology, industrials, consumer discretionary, financials and healthcare.With AUM of $59.2 billion, the fund charges investors 4 bps in fees per year and trades in an average daily volume of 739,000 shares. Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF has a Zacks ETF Rank #2 with a Medium risk outlook.iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW)iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF accumulated $3.1 billion last week. It tracks the S&P 500 Growth Index and holds 242 stocks in its basket. iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF is heavily concentrated on the top two firms with double-digit exposure each. Additionally, iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF is skewed toward information technology at 43.4%, while consumer discretionary, communication and health care round off the next three spots with double-digit exposure each (read: 5 ETF Bets for Those Undeterred by the Omicron Threat).iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF charges 18 bps in annual fees and has amassed $43.3 billion in its asset base. The fund trades in an average daily volume of 1.7 million shares and has a Zacks ETF Rank #2 with a Medium risk outlook.Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)Invesco QQQ gathered about $3 billion in its asset base last week. QQQ provides exposure to the 101 largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq by tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index. Invesco QQQ is heavily concentrated on the top two firms with a double-digit allocation while its other firms hold no more than 7.1% of assets. The product is also heavily tilted toward information technology at 50.6% while communication services and consumer discretionary round off the next two spots.Invesco QQQ is one of the largest and most-popular ETFs in the large-cap space with AUM of $212.2 billion and an average daily volume of 43.4 million shares. QQQ charges investors 20 bps in annual fees and has a Zacks ETF Rank #2 with a Medium risk outlook. Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week.Get it free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Invesco QQQ (QQQ): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI): ETF Research Reports iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW): ETF Research Reports Vanguard MidCap ETF (VO): ETF Research Reports To read this article on click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 20th, 2021

Erdogan Reiterates Commitment To "Islamic" Rate-Cut Plan, Threatens Turkish Business Lobby Over Dissent

Erdogan Reiterates Commitment To 'Islamic' Rate-Cut Plan, Threatens Turkish Business Lobby Over Dissent Having seen his nation's currency continue its collapse (losing half its value in the last three months), despite shutting down stock trading last week and proposing huge fines for any form of "hoarding", Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addressed the nation in a public statement, invoking religion as behind his decision to buck economic orthodoxy and cut rates into hyperinflation. Referring to Islamic proscriptions on usury as a basis for his new policy push, Erdogan clarified 'his' policy: “What is it? We are lowering interest rates. Don’t expect anything else from me." “As a Muslim, I’ll continue to do what is required by nas,” Erdogan said, using an Arabic word used in Turkish to refer to Islamic teachings. More fundamentally speaking, as Bloomberg notes, the president believes Turkey can free itself from reliance on foreign capital flows by abandoning policies that prioritized higher interest rates and strong inflows. At the heart of his ideas is a belief that lower interest rates will also curb consumer price growth - the exact opposite of the consensus view among the world’s central bankers. The response to Erdogan's latest statement is more of the same - selling the lira... The leader blamed the collapse of the currency on an "economic siege", reiterating that he wouldn't back down from his plan (to drive his nation into hyperinflation?). “Of course, we know the impact from price increases on people’s daily lives. We are of course aware of the instability caused by the lira’s fluctuations and its impact on prices,” Erdogan said. “But we will put up resistance against these. I announce from here: there is no backing down.” As we recently noted, at the height of the last big wave of Turkey’s ongoing crisis, in August 2018, the European Central Bank issued a warning about the potential impact the plummeting lira could have on Euro Area banks heavily exposed to Turkey’s economy via large amounts in loans — much of them in euros — through banks they acquired in Turkey. The central bank was worried that Turkish borrowers might not be hedged against the lira’s weakness and would begin to default on foreign currency loans, which accounted for 40% of the Turkish banking sector’s assets. In the end, the contagion risks were largely contained. Many Turkish banks ended up agreeing to restructure the debts of their corporate clients, particularly the large ones. At the same time, the Erdogan government used state-owned lenders to bail out millions of cash-strapped consumers by restructuring their consumer loans, many of them foreign denominated, and credit card debt.   But concerns are once again on the rise about European banks’ exposure to Turkey. As one might expect, it's not just banks that are fearful, Erdogan's recent actions sparked anger among Turkish business owners, with several associations calling for measures to stabilize the lira’s exchange rate. Scandalously, in such an increasingly totalitarian state, key business group Tusiad urged the government to abandon the current policy stance, citing recent market turmoil as proof that the experimental model is bound to fail. But speaking truth to power in Istanbul is not welcomed and Erdogan threatened those critical of him directly that "they won’t be able to challenge the government.” “You are working to put in power a government that you can exploit. This nation will not allow you to do that,” he added.   Tyler Durden Sun, 12/19/2021 - 18:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 19th, 2021

TINA, BOGO & FOMO"s Engines Are Stuttering

TINA, BOGO & FOMO's Engines Are Stuttering Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities, The Last Thing I Wanted to Write about is Omicron          I really didn’t want to have to start another weekend T-Report thinking about COVID. I would much rather have pointed you towards the excellent Around the World – Geopolitical Surprises, published Friday. I’d much prefer to jump into today’s themes, but it is difficult to talk about markets, the economy, or inflation without at least attempting to address what is going on with COVID. What we “seem” to know so far: Omicron is highly transmissible. The spread seems rapid and it seems to be able to infect people who have been vaccinated, who have had boosters, or who have had other variants. The symptoms seem relatively mild. That seems to be the case for those who have been vaccinated and those who have not been vaccinated. From what I can tell it is more severe for the unvaccinated, but even then, nowhere close to what we were seeing when COVID initially burst onto the scene. We have likely gotten far better at dealing with COVID. Knowing those most at risk presumably helps them be more cautious when necessary. Treatment options now exist unlike back in early 2020. We should be able to manage this much better. Have the politician’s gotten better at dealing with COVID? While I believe that the population at large actually has a decent understanding of the risks and is taking precautions as they see fit, the wildcard is what governments do with the latest variant. We are seeing countries in Europe revert to lockdowns. China, if it maintains its zero-tolerance policy, will see lockdowns as well. On Tuesday, President Biden is set to give a speech detailing our plans. As far as I can tell, lockdowns have become politically dangerous here. There seems to be (at least from everything I can tell) a large portion of the population that has done all the vaccinations and followed all the rules and doesn’t seem to believe that a lockdown is necessary given what we know about this variant. What politicians do may be more dangerous than the Omicron variant for markets and the economy. Several people that I find to be very good have expressed this view, and I agree with it. I think on Tuesday, President Biden will be cautious but avoid anything too disruptive. COVID Modelling  On Twitter, there is an interesting thread about COVID modelling that is worth reading. @NateSilver538 weighed in on the discussion, which is what caught my eye, as he is an expert at modelling. The original thread started with @FraserNelson (Editor of the Spectator, which I don’t know much about, and would have ignored, if not for Nate weighing in). The other participant is @GrahamMedley, professor of infectious disease modelling and chair of the SPI-M, a sub-group of SAGE, which seems to be responsible for the modelling that the U.K. government relies on. What is interesting is that the modelling focuses on what could be considered “worst-case” scenarios, certainly those where the population does little to curtail the spread. I am not sure what side of the argument I come out on (my bias is certainly towards probability weighted scenario analysis), but I’m not sure what the right approach is on this topic. Having said that, I found this thread fascinating and intend to dig deeper as it gives a little insight into the “science” and how politicians use (or even drive) the “science.” I am not sure what to make of this subject, and maybe it is nothing, but it caught my eye enough that I figured that I’d point it out to you as I suspect it will be a topic that gets addressed going forward giving us more insight into models and policy response. TINA, BOGO & FOMO’s Engines Are Stuttering Now we can focus on a few things that will be in play in the coming weeks. Year-end is always a difficult time to think about market direction as people are out of the office, liquidity is thin, people have positions to defend or push in an environment that makes it easier to push. And, this year, we have the impact of Omicron, and how politicians choose to respond to that. This week’s piece follows up on a few recent pieces: The Markets Love the FOMC – For Now. The Training Wheels are Off. To a lesser extent, Inflation, Like Greed, Is Good, which got a boost this past week with the Senate cracking down on slave labor in the Xinjiang Province of China. We are at the early stages of supply chain scrutiny, driven by ESG, and that will reshape the global economy. BOGO vs Quality Buy One, Get One free, or BOGO seems to be running rampant right now. If I check my emails, I think there are sales that started as Black Friday sales (on the Monday before Thanksgiving) that turned into Cyber Monday sales and are somehow “still” available today. It reminds me of the “going out of business” sales which would hit late night TV, where the seller seemed to be going out of business for years, despite creating an urgency on Saturday nights at 1 am. I think that there are a few important things to take away from this: There was a time, not that long ago, that if you slapped a big enough sale price on something, people would buy it. Now, and this is more anecdotal, but no one wants to buy things in “that color” or with those design “features” at a discount if no one wanted to buy them at regular price. Whether there is less care about owning the label rather than something that looked good, I am seeing/hearing about the trend towards quality. That extends, to some degree, not just to the product but to the procurement of that product. I believe that we will continue to see this trend towards “quality”, where people will pay more for the product they want, which will include factors such as country of origin, sustainability, and other potentially “intangible” factors that affect the perceived quality of a good or service. Capturing this shift will allow companies to drive sales and earnings. This phenomenon also seems to be hitting the stock market. Even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hover near all-time highs, there are a large number of stocks that are 50% below their peaks. Everywhere I turn, I see articles about the lack of breadth. How unusual it is for indices to be up 23% (S&P 500) year to date, with so many laggards. I highlight this, because as a contrarian, I naturally gravitate to these types of stocks. These, in theory, are stocks that could be ripe for huge bounces, possibly even short squeezes, and I’m finally inclined to get on that bandwagon. But (and this remains a big but) quality matters and half off sales now don’t attract buyers in stocks or goods. Maybe it is too early for some of these, despite the discounts? Fundamentals vs Technicals This little rant follows directly from the BOGO comments. The number of interviews I’ve watched or listened to recently where the pundit or stockpicker mentions that the recent 10%, or 25%, or even 50% pullback had nothing to do with fundamentals and has everything to do with technicals has reached a peak. It is driving me nuts! (I am sure that some of my comments on media drive people nuts as well, but that is a topic for another day). I am completely willing to accept that the drops are not associated with fundamentals per se. I am biased, so I do think broad shifts in the economy impact future fundamentals, but my main issue is that no one seems to believe that any of the 50% rises, or doublings, or even triplings, had anything to do with technicals and things out of their control. I can completely agree that a stock dropping 50% in a couple of months had more to do with positioning and other factors (which is why I love exploring those other factors). But I also believe that stocks that doubled or even quadrupled in a quarter or two likely weren’t being completely driven by fundamentals and other factors (like performance chasing, thin floats, etc.) impacted the upside. Not sure why this one bothers me so much, but I suspect that until there is more acceptance that these factors work both ways, there will be people holding positions that could be in for more downside. TINA vs There Is An Alternative Not sure what a good antonym for TINA would be and TIAA is already taken, but maybe someone will come up with a good one (or send me a good antonym if it already exists). While the Fed hasn’t hiked and interest rates across the globe remain low, Central Banks are gradually pumping less money into the economy. The “threat of hikes” is real. While today, I can’t say that there is an alternative, we are headed down a path to where there will be alternatives which should offer opportunities and add to some existing risks. FOMO’s Engines are Stuttering While FOMO’s engines may not stall, that is increasingly a big risk. I’ve had a lot of interesting discussions about FOMO in the past week or two. There is the obvious driver of FOMO, which is higher prices. Higher prices create the atmosphere where the fear of missing out becomes prevalent. But let’s spend less time on that obvious one and spend a bit of time on things that aren’t discussed quite as much and could be the death knell for some of the biggest FOMO trades (with a focus on crypto). For many assets the “average” investor is already likely to be under water on their investments. Early buyers are still way up because they bought cheap. Investors who came late to the party have born the brunt of the pullback. For many assets, the in-flows accelerate as prices rise, so that when they fall, the “average” investor is now staring at losses. There is a correlation between “weak” hands and losses. Almost by definition, FOMO means that an investor eventually succumbs to their fear of missing out and buys the asset. So, when we get the pullbacks, the people with losses are the ones who were least interested in being involved in the first place. The early adopters told the story, the 2nd wave believed it, and spread it to the 3rd wave, etc. The latest wave of buyers is far less likely to be successful in generating a next wave (what forces someone in once the music may have stopped). Complexity aids FOMO, but also encourages doubt. The more complex something is, the easier it is to overcome fear, because maybe people do know a lot more than you. After all, Bitcoin is always pictured as a cute gold coin, so it must be a coin or currency of some sort? Sorry, for being a bit too sarcastic with that one, but I did start 2021 bullish crypto. It is very difficult to convince someone to buy a generic $1 bill for $5. It is much easier to find a buyer for something that is truly difficult to comprehend. As that doubt sets in, and starts infiltrating the conversations, you have a real risk of “rolling” back the waves. Each successive wave was more reluctant than the prior wave and their performance has been disappointing. The sheer number of coins, NFTs, tokens, etc. were always a bit of a head scratcher when things were going up, but raises some concerns as things are going down. I’ve read some great papers about coins that will do well in the metaverse for example, but during FOMO, this competition added to the opportunity set and now it may make many wonder why there are so many and if they are all useful. El Salvador, Bitcoin Bonds, and Bitcoin City. This may work in the end, but if I was good at GIFS, I’d have a good “how it started” and “how it is going” GIF. This could have been inspirational (and it may yet be), but it may also further detract from the “use” case, which is the way I’m leaning at the moment. Volatility is a requirement of FOMO. This may sound a bit weird, but volatility is required to create FOMO. If something can jump 10% in a day, then you better buy it today because it might be too expensive tomorrow. In a world where I’ve seen the term “non-permanent losses” used to describe what pullbacks do to your holdings, you need that hope of a huge swing. In stocks, TQQQ, a triple leveraged Nasdaq 100 play, is all the rage, and in London, a 5x version was launched (along with 3x versions of various ARK funds). If prices merely stabilize, FOMO will decrease. Gambling is the most fun when you get instant gratification. Heck, maybe even instant results, as gamblers keep coming back. If the market is heavily skewed by “gamblers”, let’s call them people who are heavily leveraged, enjoy the weekly option trading game, etc., then a decrease in volatility (especially for the weekly options players) immediately impacts their participation. While a bit of a non-sequitur, I have been thinking a lot about David Tepper’s interview on CNBC from September 2010. It is quite famous as he used a colloquialism to describe his positioning which turned out to be spot on. What most people forget, is at the end of that interview, he is asked by Kernen if he has any questions. While it seems to have been edited out of the clips I can find, I will do my best to paraphrase what happened next. Tepper asked Kernen about what drives their business (the business of financial media). Kernen swept his arm, broadly indicating the set and said that even with the fancy new studio and all the new graphics, whether markets went up or whether they went down, none of it mattered, because what mattered was volatility. Why do people tune in en masse? Because there is volatility and I think that fits the narrative that FOMO and volatility go hand in hand. Do Diamond Hand, HODLers Ever Run Out of Money? Buy the dip. Buy the dip. How much money do people have if they never sell? The diamond hands/HODLer seems to apply more to crypto than to stocks, though I think you could easily argue that it has filtered into the meme stocks and maybe some specific areas (think back to BOGO). There have been record inflows into stocks this year. How much more money is available? How much leverage is being employed? That really scares me as leverage is the biggest step towards forced selling. Bottom Line On the equity side of things, I’m leaning heavily towards: Companies and cash flows that are relatively easy to understand Valuations that are compelling on “traditional” metrics (probably a convoluted way of saying value). Dividend payers The plumbing. Anything that makes the economy work. Logistics. Companies that benefit from building factories and infrastructure domestically. Real estate probably falls into this category. Mexico, then Latin America, and Canada. As supply chains shift, the “repatriation” will be to those that we are closer to, both in terms of proximity and in terms of political ideology. Cyclicals. On the fixed income side of things: I’d like to bet on slightly higher long-end yields and steeper curves, but the Fed seems to be intent on saying things that the market is interpreting as policy mistakes. Credit is fine. When you look at what I like in equities, that encompasses the vast majority of the credit market, especially high yield, from a sector standpoint. Own credit, including high yield and leveraged loans. Delve into structured products. While TINA might be fading in equities, I think it will still exist in credit and will be where to pick up incremental yield and is worth the risk. Digging into structured products will be key. While reaction to Omicron will drive the direction at the start of the week, I think quality will overwhelm FOMO in the coming weeks. Tyler Durden Sun, 12/19/2021 - 18:35.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 19th, 2021

"Follow The Science": A Potent Source Of Authority For Politicians

'Follow The Science': A Potent Source Of Authority For Politicians Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times, To hear the way some politicians talk, when it comes to COVID-19, they’re all “following the science,” not to mention “the data.” “Look at the data. Follow the science. Listen to the experts. Be smart,” now-former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo wrote on Twitter in May 2020, after “Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve” had fully transitioned to “The New Normal.” “We’ve been operating on facts and data and science from the very beginning,” said Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker in a campaign ad titled simply “Follow The Science.” President Joe Biden has frequently appealed to “the science.” In an executive order announcing a vaccine mandate for federal workers, for instance, he said his administration used “the best available data and science-based public health measures.” In an article criticizing Biden’s move to push vaccine boosters in September, StatNews’s Lev Facher described “Follow the Science” as “a mantra” for the administration. White House chief medical adviser on COVID-19 Dr. Anthony Fauci stands at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in Bethesda, Md., on Feb. 11, 2021. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images) “The science” emerged long before 2020 as a potent source of authority for politicians. Yet while the scientific method is a powerful tool for advancing human potential, the belief that it alone can guide us is an example of “scientism.” Scientism is, in the words of public intellectual Scott Masson, “the belief that moral or evaluative judgments are merely subjective and that only the ‘hard’ sciences—think physics, chemistry, or biology—furnish legitimate objective knowledge.” While few American politicians would openly endorse this position, the actions many have taken during the COVID-19 pandemic reflect scientism in deed, if not in word. Scientism lets politicians off the hook for their decisions. They didn’t really make a decision—they merely “followed the science.” As a scientistic credo, “Follow the science” doesn’t just abrogate leaders’ accountability as decision-makers. It also does violence to the nature of science, which seldom offers the clear-cut, politically useful conclusions that politicians want. People wearing face masks stand in line as they wait to be vaccinated at the Sydney Olympic Park Vaccination Centre at Homebush in Sydney, Australia, on Aug. 16, 2021. (David Gray/AFP via Getty Images) A popular meme contrasts the “scientific method” with the “science worshiper’s method.” While the former moves in a rigorous, self-correcting way toward results that may or may not align with a specific hypothesis, the latter constructs a model and then only accepts the data that will confirm that model. At its most extreme, “following the science” is inflexibly dogmatic. When less inflexible, “following the science” can lead to sudden, sharp changes in public policy, often in the face of other evidence and goals separate from the COVID-19 response—for example, avoiding other health problems or economic disruption traceable to such policies. Masking In the case of masking, “following the science” has led to a series of dramatic reversals. Surgeon General Jerome Adams speaks to members of Congress in Washington on Sept. 9, 2020. (Michael Reynolds/Pool/AFP via Getty Images) In February 2020, U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams wrote on Twitter that Americans should “STOP BUYING MASKS!” as they were “not effective.” In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) maintained that healthy individuals didn’t need to wear masks. Yet as mask production ramped up in the United States, U.S. public health authorities changed their tune. In early April, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that Americans consider wearing cloth masks. By June 2020, WHO recommended that healthy members of the general public wear masks in situations where physical distancing wasn’t possible, citing new scientific evidence on transmission. A man enters the headquarters of the World Health Organization in Geneva, Switzerland, on June 15, 2021. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images) In 2021, the CDC repeatedly shifted on masking. In July 2021, it reversed a May recommendation that vaccinated people need not wear masks, drawing rebukes from Republican governors. Some experts believe that such shifts mark a significant departure from our understanding of masking before the pandemic. “When it comes to the point of certain interventions that are sort of weakly supported, and if you go back and look at everything that was published before 2020, and come to this completely different conclusion if you read the things that published later on in 2020, about masks or the ability of lockdowns to stop and end spread indefinitely—long-term lockdowns that have devastating collateral damage—and that type of thing. And then you realize how politicized this really has become,” immunologist Steven Templeton, a professor at Indiana University, formerly with the CDC, said in an interview with The Epoch Times’ EpochTV. One of the most politicized issues is the masking of young children. While advocates have argued that children could be major transmitters of COVID-19, opponents have argued that children are neither major vectors of the disease nor vulnerable to serious illness or death. They have also pointed out the understudied developmental and physiological risks of masking young children. A pupil wearing a face mask attends a class in a file photo. (JEAN-CHRISTOPHE VERHAEGEN/AFP via Getty Images) One 2021 preprint found no correlation between mask mandates and COVID-19 case rates among students and faculty across schools in Florida, New York, and Massachusetts, though the authors included caveats about how well their findings could be generalized. Still, for many schools, “following the science” has led to universal mask mandates. Portland Public Schools, for example, requires the masking of children at all times and places, indoor or outdoor, and irrespective of vaccination status, “except when eating, drinking or playing a musical wind instrument.” You realize how politicized this really has become. — Steven Templeton, professor at Indiana University In one instance, guerilla footage showed kindergartners “eating” while sitting outside on buckets in 40-degree weather while socially distanced from playmates. In cases such as these, “following the science” has the look and feel of political theater. Men wearing protective suits make their way at a bus stop at Narita international airport on the first day of closed borders to prevent the spread of the new Omicron variant amid the pandemic in Narita, east of Tokyo, Japan, Nov. 30, 2021. (Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters) Omicron and Beyond The Omicron variant of COVID-19 hasn’t yet caused a surge in serious COVID-19 cases. Yet as soon as the new strain made international headlines, governments across the world were ready to “follow the science,” or at least take some sort of action in its name. The United States, the UK, and other countries have banned travel from many countries in southern Africa, where Omicron was first detected. Japan, meanwhile, barred entry of all foreign nationals. WHO and other scientists and physicians argued that these bans weren’t warranted, in part because they would do little to slow the variant’s spread. As the new strain made international headlines, governments across the world were ready to ‘Follow the Science.’ The CEO of Pfizer, too, has speculated that the variant could push up the debut of its latest booster, telling CNBC, “I think we will need a fourth dose.” For now, however, the new variant appears to be mild. To date, Omicron doesn’t seem to have caused a single verifiable death. World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus attends a news conference organized by the Geneva Association of United Nations Correspondents (ACANU) amid the COVID-19 outbreak, caused by the novel coronavirus, at the WHO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, on July 3, 2020. (Fabrice Coffrini/Pool via Reuters) When asked by The Epoch Times if Omicron had led to a single confirmed fatality, a WHO spokesperson sent its weekly epidemiological update for Dec. 7. According to that guide: “All of the 212 confirmed cases identified in 18 European Union countries for which there was information available on severity were asymptomatic or mild. While South Africa saw an 82 percent increase in hospital admissions due to COVID-19 (from 502 to 912) during the week 28 November–4 December 2021, it is not yet known the proportion of these with the Omicron variant.” In addition, the WHO spokesperson said, “For Omicron, we have not had any deaths reported, but it is still early in the clinical course of disease and this may change.” The CDC didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times on whether there were any confirmed Omicron deaths. Other examples abound. For instance, while data show vaccinated individuals are significantly less likely to die of COVID-19 than the unvaccinated, “following the science” to preapproved conclusions may prematurely foreclose or minimize serious concerns about vaccine safety, particularly in relation to heart inflammation or other cardiovascular disease. In September testimony before the FDA in its evaluation of the Pfizer booster, entrepreneur Steve Kirsch said that Pfizer’s vaccines kill more people than they save, citing Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) data, among other information. Just days ago, physicians and scientists in the UK reportedly warned that post-pandemic stress disorder is driving a rise in heart attacks and other cardiovascular issues, including among younger patients. Some commentators speculated that the rise could be related to vaccines. Candace Owens wrote on Twitter in response to the story: “I’ve just learned that the sudden increase in heart-related illnesses is likely due to **checks Big Pharma notes** Post-Pandemic Stress Disorder. Nothing to see here!” Following Science, Not ‘Following the Science’ While New York and New York City have pursued hardline policies, including the city’s vaccine pass system applicable to children as young as 5, the state of Florida has blocked mandates and prioritized individual choice. Today, case rates in Florida are lower than in New York, likely in part because of the disease’s seasonality. Moreover, while Floridians are on average older than New York residents, suggesting that they should be more vulnerable to COVID-19, the death rate per 100,000 is still lower in that state than in New York, according to NBC News. New York City itself has had more than 34,000 deaths, due partly to major early clusters in nursing homes in the city. People visit Clearwater Beach after Governor Ron DeSantis opened the beaches at 7 a.m. on May 4, 2020 in Clearwater, Fla. (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) The Senate’s Dec. 8 vote to block Biden’s OSHA vaccine mandate for large employers, which came soon after the 6th Circuit Court overruled the same mandate, could signal the resilience of checks and balances against compulsion in the name of “the science.” Elsewhere in the world, “following the science,” often in spite of other scientific evidence, is leading to more draconian policies. New Brunswick, Canada, has permitted grocery stores to exclude the unvaccinated, violating the basic human right to food articulated in Article 25 of The Universal Declaration of Human Rights as well as Article 11 of the International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights. Canadian and American flags fly near the Ambassador Bridge at the Canada–U.S. border crossing in Windsor, Ont., in a file photo. (The Canadian Press/Rob Gurdebeke) Numerous studies have raised questions about whether vaccination stems transmission, with some suggesting that vaccinated people with suppressed symptoms of the disease may even be major drivers of new infection. Regardless, “the science” demands greater sacrifices by the day. Good science can and should inform our judgments as well as those of politicians. But unthinking gestures toward “the science” don’t shield any of us from responsibility—though as Jeffrey A. Tucker of The Brownstone Institute points out, the bureaucrats whose banalities enforce our new scientistic consensuses shirk any blame for its self-evident failures. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/17/2021 - 22:15.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 17th, 2021

Marko Kolanovic Expects A Massive Short Squeeze Into Year End

Marko Kolanovic Expects A Massive Short Squeeze Into Year End Over the past 4 years, there hasn't been a selloff JPMorgan's head quant (and more recently, head of market strategy) Marko Kolanovic, hasn't loved and the current one is no exception, and remarkably while even the otherwise uber-bullish Goldman Sachs (which has a 5,100 year end 2022 price target) recently pointed to the unprecedented collapse in market breadth in the market and the divergence between generals and all other stocks... .... as a source of major concern (see "Goldman Rings The Alarm On Collapsing Market Breadth") because as the Vampire Squid noted... the amount of concentration is directly proportional to the odds of a major market shock. As Goldman further explains, one measure of market breadth that has historically carried a forward-looking signal for equity market performance compares how far the S&P 500 index and its median constituent trade from their respective 52-week highs. When the index is much closer to its 52-week high than the median stock, this breadth measure plunges and signals that a small number of stocks are driving index returns. This measure of breadth registered more than one standard deviation above average as of April 2021 (highest level since 2014) before falling by 4.5% during the subsequent six months. None of this is a concern to Marko, however, who as always sees the glass as 150% full, and instead of joining Goldman on the cautious side, admitting that "such a divergence is unknown to us", instead flips the argument on its head, and argues that the furious selling in "non-generals" stocks is actually a reason to buy them, in other words the divergence between the handful of overvalued stocks: Over the past 4 weeks, small caps and value stocks entered a correction (sold off more than 10%). High beta stocks have sold off ~30%, entering a bear market. In fact, there is a paradox that on average US stocks are down 28% from highs (most highs were recorded in the first half of the year) and the median stock is down ~21%, while the market is up ~22% for the year (Russell 3000). Such a divergence is unknown to us... ... so far so good, he merely echoes what we - and Goldman - said about the massive collapse in market breadth, but it is what he says next that should make one's head spin, namely that this divergence ... indicates a historically unprecedented overshoot in selling smaller, more volatile, typically value and cyclical stocks in the last 4 weeks. Apparently it does not indicate that the handful of stocks that have not sold off yet remains massively overbought (due to popularity, overrepresented in ETFs, etc), but that all the stocks that have sold off should be going up. And that's why Marko is now in charge of a team meant to boost the public's confidence in markets in general, and JPM's commission-collecting skills in particular, because no matter how unprecedented the news, it's always bullish! Obviously, since his argument would be empty without at least some attempt at justification, Kolanovic does just that next, arguing that the narrative for the selloff "is related to Omicron and the Fed, while actual selling comes largely from de-risking and shorting from equity and macro hedge funds." Which brings us to the crux of the thesis, and in light of recent epic short squeezes duly profiled here, Kolanovic may actually have a point. According to the Croat, "for short-selling campaigns to succeed, there have to be positioning, liquidity and often systematic amplifiers of the selloff." But, as we have seen in recent days when sharp selloffs were followed by even bigger short squeezes... ... as we discussed most recently in "Goldman Prime: Tuesday Was The Biggest Short Squeeze In 6 Months", these conditions are not met according to Kolanovic, who concludes that "this market episode may end up in a short squeeze and cyclical rally into year-end and January." Which, incidentally, is a carbon copy of what Goldman's flow trader Scott Rubner said one week ago when he went all in predicting that A Face-Ripping Santa Rally is on deck.  It is therefore not surprising that Kolanovic lists some of the exact same technical and structural, i.e., positioning and flows, drivers behind his cheerful forecast. These are as follows: Positioning of systematic and discretionary investors has already declined significantly to the bottom third of the historical distribution (~30-35th percentile). CTAs are fully short small cap and many international indices, while S&P 500 positions are not under pressure given the ~25% one-year appreciation of the cap-weighted benchmark. Volatility targeting and risk parity funds started adding exposure, given muted realized volatility and correlations. This is a result of strong value-growth rotations reducing correlation and internally offsetting large stock moves. While he may have a point here, it's worth also noting that for the past year, Kolanovic has been pounding the table on value outperforming value when in reality value has gotten absolutely crushed by growth and tech. So maybe if he had foreseen some of the blow ups experienced by his clients heading into the past week, his forecast would carry some more weight... It's not just positioning but also seasonals, and the JPM quant predicts that there will "also be buying of equities into month- and quarter end – particularly for international, SMid, and cyclical benchmarks that are impacted the most." In short, Kolanovic argues, "this is not a setup similar to 4Q2018 from a fundamental or technical angle", which - as we reminded readers earlier - is when stocks tumbled 20% to force the Fed to halt its tightening plans, and which Morgan Stanley believes will happen again in the next "3-4 months", as such we now have a bearish Morgan Stanley calling for market fire and brimstone in the next 3-4 months in one corner, and JPMorgan (and Goldman Sachs) forecasting a face-ripping short squeeze into year end. And speaking of the aggressive shorting, Kolanovic says that it is "likely in a hope of declines in retail equity position and cryptocurrency holdings – while in fact both of these markets and retail investors have shown resilience in the past weeks." His last point on positioning is that "large short positions likely need to be closed before (the seasonally strong) January, which is likely to see a small-cap, value and cyclical rally. And given that market liquidity is dwindling, the impact of closing shorts may be bigger than the impact of opening them, when liquidity conditions were better." Technicals aside, Kolanovic is also bullish for several fundamental reasons, chief of which is his increasingly optimistic view on Omicron in particular and covid in general (which last week he said will soon be over as the "extremely mild" omicron soon becomes the dominant variant). Indeed, in his latest note he writes that "we retain our positive outlook for COVID. Despite the recent panic about the Omicron variant, global COVID deaths are at the lowest point of the year, and cases actually flat for the past 2 weeks. This is despite the addition of a large number of less severe Omicron cases. In particular, cases in the EU are declining, starting from the east (Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Austria, Germany, etc.). Even in the UK – where some of the most sensational headlines come from – fatalities declined ~30% over the past month, and are down over 90% from the highs earlier this year." Finally, Kolanovic points to South Africa, where the new strain was first detected, and where deaths are also declining the last few weeks, and down 95% from January highs. And, as shown in the chart above, correlating and lagging COVID cases and deaths in South Africa indicates Omicron’s mortality rate is very low (e.g., an appropriately lagged deaths to cases ratio is ~25 times lower than in the previous peak), which to is consistent with the JPM quant's claim from two weeks ago that "Omicron is a bullish rather than bearish market development." Tyler Durden Fri, 12/17/2021 - 13:49.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 17th, 2021

5 Must-Buy High-Flying Stocks With More Upside in 2022

We have narrowed our search to five large-cap stocks that have skyrocketed more than 60% in 2021 with more upside left for 2022. These are: CF, OXY, DVN, MRVL and BX. We are approaching the end of 2021 with just nine days of trading left. Wall Street is likely to close a highly successful 2021 unless something drastic crops up in the last few days. After an astonishing 2020, the performance of U.S. stock markets is commendable as both years have been marred by the pandemic.Several stocks have skyrocketed in 2021 with more room to grow next year. Investment in such stocks with a favorable Zacks Rank should be lucrative going forward. Here we have selected five stocks, namely, Blackstone Inc. BX, Devon Energy Corp. DVN, CF Industries Holdings Inc. CF, Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY and Marvell Technology Inc. MRVL.A Solid 2021 for Wall StreetYear to date, the major stock indexes — the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite — have rallied 17.3%, 24.3% and 17.8%, respectively. In 2020, the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite — advanced 7.3%, 16.3% and 43.6%, respectively.The Market rally in 2021 is more commendable as it is more broad-based. Last year’s performance was mainly technology sector based. This year, aside from technology, cyclical sectors like energy, financials, industrials, materials and consumer discretionary have gained impressively with the reopening of the economy.Nationwide COVID-19 vaccination and faster-than-expected recovery of the U.S. economy have acted as the catalysts of 2021. On the other hand, this year has been negatively impacted by the highest inflation rate in four decades and shortage of skilled manpower. Inflation has skyrocketed in 2021 primarily due to the pandemic-led global breakdown of the supply-chain system. This year has also been affected by the resurgence of coronavirus in various variants.Near-Term PositivesThe fundamentals of the U.S. economy are robust. Both consumer spending and business spending remain strong despite mounting inflation and global supply-chain disruptions. Both manufacturing and services PMIs have remained elevated.On Nov 15, President Joe Biden signed a bipartisan infrastructure bill of $550 billion in addition to the previously approved funds of $450 billion for five years. Total spending may go up to $1.2 trillion if the plan is extended to eight years.The infrastructure development project will be a major catalyst for the U.S. stock markets in 2022. Various segments of the economy such as basic materials, industrials, utilities and telecommunications will benefit immensely with more job creation for the economy.On Nov 19, the House of Representatives passed a massive $1.75 trillion social safety net and climate bill proposed by the Biden administration. The bill will now head toward the Senate.Moreover, the White House has put pressure on Congress to quickly pass legislation providing $52 billion to help computer chip manufacturers and ease the shortage of components vital to many industries.Our Top PicksWe have narrowed our search to five large-cap stocks (market capital > $10 billion) that have skyrocketed more than 60% in 2021 with more upside left for 2022. These stocks have seen positive earnings estimate revisions in the last 60 days. Each of our picks sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The chart below shows the price performanc of our five picks year to date.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchDevon Energy aims for strong oil production from the Delaware Basin holdings. Devon Energy’s presence in Delaware has expanded due to its all-stock merger deal with WPX Energy. DVN is using new technology in production process to lower expenses.Devon Energy’s divestiture of Canadian and Barnett Shale gas assets will allow it to focus on its five high-quality oil-rich U.S. basins assets. DVN’s stable free cash flow generation allows it to pay dividend and buy back shares. Devon Energy has ample liquidity to meet near-term debt obligations.Devon Energy has an expected earnings growth rate of 54.1% for next year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings improved 1.7% over the last 30 days. The stock price of DVN has soared 155.3% year to date.The Blackstone Group remains well-poised to benefit from its fund-raising ability, revenue mix and inorganic expansion strategies. To provide ESG-focused investment opportunities, BX inked a deal to acquire Sphera, while the buyout of DCI will further enhance its digital capabilities.The Blackstone Group’s fee-earning AUM and total AUM consistently demonstrate strong growth, aided by increasing net inflows. Over the last four years (2017-2020), fee-earning AUM witnessed a CAGR of 11.9% and total AUM saw a CAGR of 12.5%. Both metrics witnessed an uptrend in the first nine months of 2021. BX’s diversified products, revenue mix and superior position in the alternative investments space will likely continue to support AUM growth.The Blackstone Group has an expected earnings growth rate of 18.2% for next year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings improved 15.4 % over the last 60 days. The stock price of BX has jumped 91.3% year to date.Marvell Technology is benefiting from solid demand for its storage and networking chips from the 5G infrastructure and data-center end markets. Strong supply-chain executions are helping MRVL to address the strong demand from cloud datacenters for its Smart NICs and security adapters.Moreover, the wireless infrastructure business of Marvel Technology is showing signs of improvements. The recent acquisition of Inphi is boosting the top line of MRVL. Further, the storage business is steadily recovering from the coronavirus impacts.Marvel Technology has an expected earnings growth rate of 42.6% for next year (ending January 2023). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings improved 10.5% over the last 30 days. The stock price of MRVL has climbed 75.9% year to date.CF Industries is well placed to benefit from higher nitrogen demand in major markets. Demand for nitrogen is expected to be strong in North America, driven by healthy corn acres in the United States. Lower domestic urea production is also likely to drive demand in Brazil.  CF Industries is also seeing a rebound in industrial demand from the pandemic-led disruptions. CF will also likely gain from a recovery in nitrogen prices on the back of lower supply availability due to reduced operating rates across Europe and Asia. Higher nitrogen prices will lend support to CF’s bottom line.CF Industries has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for next year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings improved 1% over the last 7 days. The stock price of CF has appreciated 66.2% year to date.Occidental Petroleum continues to increase hydrocarbon production volumes from its high-quality asset holdings and lower outstanding debts through the proceeds from non-core assets sale. The acquisition of Anadarko, investment to strengthen infrastructure and its Permian Basin exposure continue to boost the performance of OXY.Occidental Petroleum has achieved the $10-billion divestiture goal through non-core assets sale. Its cost-management initiatives will boost margins going forward. OXY is also working to lower emission and aims for net-zero emissions by 2050.Occidental Petroleum has an expected earnings growth rate of 41.3% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings improved 35.7% over the last 7 days. The stock price of OXY has surged 64% year to date. Bitcoin, Like the Internet Itself, Could Change Everything Blockchain and cryptocurrency has sparked one of the most exciting discussion topics of a generation. Some call it the “Internet of Money” and predict it could change the way money works forever. If true, it could do to banks what Netflix did to Blockbuster and Amazon did to Sears. Experts agree we’re still in the early stages of this technology, and as it grows, it will create several investing opportunities. Zacks’ has just revealed 3 companies that can help investors capitalize on the explosive profit potential of Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies with significantly less volatility than buying them directly. See 3 crypto-related stocks now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Blackstone Inc. (BX): Free Stock Analysis Report Devon Energy Corporation (DVN): Free Stock Analysis Report Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY): Free Stock Analysis Report CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF): Free Stock Analysis Report Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksDec 17th, 2021