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Saturday links: the pickup truck paradox

On Saturdays we catch up with the non-finance related items that we didn’t get to earlier in the week. You can check... AutosHow pickup trucks got so darn big. (axios.com)The longer an EV is driven the better the carbon impact. (hannahritchie.substack.com)Bike lanes are good for business. (kottke.org)EnergyWhy solar panel prices are falling. (bnnbloomberg.ca)Why not turn parking lots into solar power hubs? (wired.com)What's holding up major renewable projects? (wsj.com)How do you get 'green hydrogen'? (thecooldown.com)WaterThe Feds are going to have to make cuts to state water allocations from the Colorado River. (nytimes.com)Arizona's water problems are only getting worse. (time.com)Why NASA's newly launched Surface Water and Ocean Topography satellite is a big deal. (thecooldown.com)In the midst of the drought many Californians dropped flood insurance. (grist.org)Utah's Great Salt Lake could be gone in five years. (cnn.com)EnvironmentSpring is happening up to two weeks early. (usanpn.org)Indoor air quality has a big impact on learning and cognition. (marginalrevolution.com)How Maricopa County tries to reduce heat-related deaths. (grist.org)Don't use your gas stove just to boil water. (wsj.com)How to recycle your old smartphone. (thecooldown.com)SpaceAstronomers say light pollution is getting worse, faster. (science.org)Comparing NASA's and Tesla's rockets that are set to go to the Moon. (washingtonpost.com)TechnologyCan livestreams ever be made safe? (ft.com)What's the actual use case for a VR headset? (daringfireball.net)The new MacBook Pros are a big upgrade over prior versions with Intel chips. (sixcolors.com)Why did Apple ($AAPL) revive the HomePod? (daringfireball.net)BehaviorHow we move our bodies affects our psychology. (traderfeed.blogspot.com)Five ways of achieving calmness. (bbc.com)HealthThe tripledemic is fading. (washingtonpost.com)Not everyone is happy about the development of effective anti-obesity drugs. (wired.com)Why naloxone isn't more widely available. (washingtonpost.com)What to expect when prepping for a colonoscopy. (nytimes.com)CovidBivalent boosters are showing effectiveness against the newest variants. (statnews.com)Why Covid boosters are shifting to an annual, flu-like, schedule. (nytimes.com)What 'excess deaths' tell us about the impact of Covid. (theconversation.com)What NPIs worked around the world in 2020. (papers.ssrn.com)FoodExperts overwhelmingly choose this store-bought marinara sauce. (washingtonpost.com)Why we shouldn't be surprised about the egg price situation. (msn.com)What's actually in your store-bought chicken stock? (eater.com)J. Kenji Lopez Alt on which food expiration dates actually matter. (nytimes.com)DrinkOn the relationship between alcohol consumption and health. (parentdata.org)A look at how the craft beer space has gotten so competitive in one state. (indystar.com)Japan is seeing a boost in alcohol exports. (asia.nikkei.com)Fat Tire Ale is rebranding as a 'zero emission' brew. (axios.com)DogsWhy its so hard to shut down puppy mills for good. (vox.com)The pandemic pet bubble has burst. (washingtonpost.com)SportsCollege sports is full of all sorts of contradictions. (econofact.org)How Formula One teams ship stuff around the world. (huddleup.substack.com)Like it or not, pro pickleball is coming to your television. (frontofficesports.com)18 of the best live sports events in the world including the Monaco Grand Prix. (gq.com)MediaThe 13 best Wall Street movies including 'Trading Places.' (ofdollarsanddata.com)Netflix ($NFLX) and 'Stranger Things' dominate the list of the most-streamed shows in 2022. (variety.com)A problem with movies today - they look too perfect. (kottke.org)SchoolsSchools will be coming to terms with ChatGPT for a long time. (fivethirtyeight.com)ChatGPT can pass an MBA operations management class. (nbcnews.com)Earlier on Abnormal ReturnsWhat you missed in our Friday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)Podcast links: the simulation of learning (abnormalreturns.com)Are you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter. (newsletter.abnormalreturns.com)Mixed mediaTipping sucks, but seems impossible to get rid of it. (kottke.org)How does nonalcoholic beer work as a hydration vehicle after exercise? (washingtonpost.com)A solid majority of Americans are in favor of legalized cannabis. (kiplinger.com).....»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturnsJan 28th, 2023

The best portable generators of 2024

Portable generators offer a reliable power source during outages and emergencies. These are the best portable generators, according to a contractor. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn morePortable generators are significantly cheaper than whole-home generators and can still be used to power several major appliances.Amazon/InsiderIf you live in especially hot or cold climates, or rely on medical devices that must be connected to power, even a few days without electricity can be life-threatening. Instead of waiting for the power company to fix the issue, the best portable generators allow you to immediately restore electricity to your most important items, making power outages much less disruptive and dangerous to you and your family. These handy machines convert fuel (either gas, propane, or solar) into electricity, and have multiple outlets to connect different types of power cords. Unlike larger "whole house generators" that are permanently installed, portable generators are designed with mobility in mind, featuring wheels and carrying handles. This versatility makes portable generators useful for a variety of applications in addition to emergency preparedness, including tailgates, camping trips, or powering tools on a construction job site.We think most people will get the best results from the Honda EM5000SX Portable Generator, which was recommended by our experts for its reliability and power. Generators can be quite pricey, so if you're on a budget, check out the Briggs & Stratton 3500 Portable Generator. It's more than $2,000 cheaper than our top pick, but will still power your most critical appliances and is made by one of the most trusted engine brands on the market. Learn more about how Insider Reviews tests and researches home products.Top picks for portable generatorsBest overall: Honda EM5000SX Portable Generator - See at AmazonBest budget: Briggs & Stratton 3500 Portable Generator - See at The Home DepotBest dual fuel: Westinghouse Outdoor Power Equipment 12500 Portable Generator - See at AmazonBest heavy duty: Honda EB10000 Portable Generator - See at AmazonBest compact: Honda EU2200i Portable Generator - See at AmazonBest solar powered: Anker Solar Generator 767 - See at AmazonBest overallThis Honda generator was specifically recommended by our expert Michael Prasad, a certified emergency manager and senior research analyst at Barton Dunant, who praised its overall reliability. Its functional design hits that user-friendly sweet spot of performance and portability, boasting a powerful 389cc iGX390 Honda engine, intuitive controls, and a pair of beefy rubber wheels for convenient transport. The 5,000-watt running output is sufficient for powering most household appliances and a great portable option to connect to your home via transfer switch. We're also fans of this model's Bluetooth connectivity, allowing users to use the Honda My Generator App. As long as you're within 75 feet, you can use your phone or another connected device to start and stop the machine remotely, as well as monitor its output power, engine operating hours, fuel level, and maintenance reminders.Best budgetThis budget-friendly machine from Briggs & Stratton still packs enough power to operate several large appliances simultaneously, such as a refrigerator, freezer, AC unit, and sump pump. Most importantly, unlike some other lower-priced options, this model doesn't compromise on quality. Briggs & Stratton has been making small engines for over a hundred years, and has a great reputation as high-quality, dependable machines that last a long time if properly maintained. You're also not skimping on safety either, thanks to a carbon monoxide shutdown feature that automatically powers off the unit when harmful levels of CO are detected. The 4-gallon fuel tank provides up to 8 hours of continuous runtime when operating at 50% load, and the low oil shutdown feature protects the engine from unnecessary wear and damage. Although it's not as powerful as larger options, the 3,500-watt capacity translates to a lower overall weight of just 111 pounds, which naturally increases portability.Best dual-fuelCapable of using gas or propane for fuel, this Westinghouse generator is a great choice for those who don't want to be limited to a single fuel source. My favorite feature of this dual-fuel machine is its user-friendly design. A straightforward fuel switch makes it easy to select your preferred option, and since you don't have to shut off the unit to do so, keeps power flowing at all times. Large, color-coded wattage specs for each fuel type are clearly displayed too, so you won't need to go digging through the manual to make sure your appliance is compatible. A push-button start adds to this hassle-free operation, and the remote start key fob is effective from up to 99 feet away. This generator also includes a propane hose with regulator, so no need to purchase it separately. This model is available in a 15,000-watt option for those who want more power, as well as 4,650, 6,600, and 9,500-watt versions for lighter-duty use.Best heavy dutyThis 10,000-watt Honda generator is beefy enough to deliver large power loads, and its robust frame is well-suited to heavy-duty use. Whether you're using it to power table saws, air compressors, and bench grinders on a rough job site, or just want to make sure it can withstand the damaging effects of a natural disaster unscathed, this is a great option. The Honda GX630 commercial engine provides 9,000 running watts, and the 8.1-gallon fuel tank has an impressive runtime of 7.9 hours at half-load capacity. This machine is naturally louder than smaller models, although not by a huge amount. Its 73-decibel level is only marginally louder than the 66-decibel level of our top pick, the Honda EM5000SX.Not surprisingly, this heavy-duty machine is, well, pretty heavy. Its 403-pound weight is beefier than any other option on our list, although the convenient lift-hook handle and wheel kit make this less of an issue. Best compactIf portability is your top priority, and don't have the need or space for a large-output machine, look no further than this compact Honda generator. Another Honda model recommended by our expert Prasad, this 47.4-pound generator features a top-mounted carrying handle for convenient transport and storage. This compact design is also well-suited for emergency evacuation situations, and much easier to toss into the bed of a pickup truck than a 200-pound machine. Despite its small footprint, this model's 2,200 starting wattage is sufficient to run a full-sized refrigerator or freezer, or multiple smaller appliances like microwaves, electric skillets, coffee makers, or small air conditioners. Depending on the load, this generator can run continuously for up to 9.6 hours. If you need more power but don't want to worry about transporting and storing a full-size machine, you can simply purchase a second unit and use a parallel cord to combine their outputs.Best solar poweredIf you want to avoid the harmful fumes and noise pollution of a gas-powered generator, consider this solar model. It doesn't provide as much overall power of a similarly sized gas-guzzler, but it does eliminate your reliance on a fuel source that may become unavailable or expensive in an extended emergency situation. That being said, its effectiveness is wholly dependent on sunlight, which can present its own limitations. This generator includes a pair of 200-watt solar panels for capturing and supplying energy from the sun, as well as the necessary cables and adapter for connecting them all. Anker claims that these two panels — when used in ideal conditions — are able to charge the generator battery from empty to 100% charge in just 5.7 hours. Of course, in less than ideal conditions, like in overcast or rainy weather, that rate will decrease. Another useful feature of this generator is its wide variety of charging ports. In addition to the four standard three-prong ports and a beefier TT-30R outlet, this unit also provides two car sockets, three USB-C ports, and two USB-A ports. We're also big fans of the large, bright display, which gives you a lot more data than the gas-powered generators on this list. The Anker smartphone app also allows you to monitor the operation from afar, and keep an eye on real-time charging status, remaining battery, or even customize power usage.What to look for in a portable generatorIf you're not familiar with these machines and how they work, purchasing the best portable generator for your needs can be an intimidating process. Keep these factors in mind as you're shopping:TypeThere are two main types of portable generators, conventional (or "standard") and inverter generators, which generate electricity in slightly different ways. Conventional generators have an engine that powers a motor, which uses an alternator to generate alternating current (AC) electricity. These generators are relatively simple to repair and maintain, but since their energy output is directly coupled to their engine RPMs, they aren't as efficient as inverter generators. The majority of the picks in our guide are conventional generators (apart from the inverter and solar-powered models).Inverter generators are more complex, and instead of just outputting the AC electricity straight from the engine, use two additional steps to better regulate their electrical output. After generating AC from the motor, inverter generators then convert that electricity into a more stable direct current (DC), and then back into AC — calibrating it to the required output of the specific device being powered. So, instead of running the engine at the same RPM regardless of the electrical load required, an inverter generator only produces the amount of electricity being drawn, allowing it to be much more fuel efficient than a standard generator.FuelAll portable generators require some kind of fuel to convert into electricity. While most run on gasoline, others use propane, and larger full-house generators can also use diesel or natural gas, so make sure you choose the one best suited to your situation. Prasad says you should consider where you would store the fuel for your generator, and where you plan on obtaining it in your local area. Gas is a popular option because of its availability, but you'll need to have a supply on hand if you want to be fully prepared for an emergency. If you wait until you're ready to use your generator, you may be standing in long lines with everyone else at the gas station.   "Dual-fuel" generators are becoming more common and can accept multiple fuel types, typically gas and propane. Dual-fuel models aren't just convenient, they're invaluable during extended power outages when gas stations have run dry, since you can seamlessly switch over to propane. "After a major storm with multi-day power outages, it is easier to get a tank of propane than it is to get a gallon of gasoline," said Prasad. Solar-powered portable generators only require sunlight to convert to electricity. Although they take longer to charge up, these models have essentially an unlimited fuel supply (as long as the skies are clear of course) and are the best portable generator options if you're totally off the grid.Wattage (starting and running)Portable generators have two wattage outputs, starting and running. The starting (or "surge") wattage is typically only for a few seconds, while the running wattage is what it can sustain for long periods of time. To make sure your generator meets your needs, Prasad advises that you calculate the total amount of energy used by whatever you plan on powering. Larger appliances like refrigerators typically state their required starting and running wattage information on their data plates, and for smaller items you may need to consult the product's instruction manual.OutletsTo ensure your generator is compatible with the type and quantity of items being powered, make sure it has enough outlets, as well as the correct type. While standard 20A 120V duplex three-prong outlets are fine for smaller appliances, high-wattage applications typically require larger 30A outlets.WeightEven though portable generators are designed to be transported, they're not exactly lightweight. Prasad recommends that you consider your physical capabilities when choosing a portable generator. He adds that you'll need to be able to move it from a safe storage area to where you want to run it, reiterating that it needs to be positioned outside in an open area, and away from windows and doors where fumes might enter the home. If you want the capacity of a larger generator, but aren't able to move it safely, consider purchasing two smaller ones that can be paired together.NoisePortable generator engines can be loud, and if you plan on running them for long periods of time, can get a little irritating, especially at night. If maintaining a low noise level is a priority, compare the decibel (dBA) specs on your potential generators to choose the quietest option. Inverter generators are almost always quieter than standard generators, and solar-powered models are silent.SafetySafe generator usage "is one of the most critical aspects those of us in emergency management and public safety want to relay to the public," said Prasad. Portable generators that use combustion fuel, gas, and propane must be used outside — at least 20 feet from your home — to avoid deadly carbon monoxide buildup. All of our picks for the best portable generator have carbon monoxide detection and automatic shut-off features.How we chose our top picksWhen selecting the best portable generators for this article, I called upon my own experience as a general contractor using standard and inverter models, and also consulted with Michael Prasad, a certified emergency manager and senior research analyst at Barton Dunant, an emergency management training company.I based my selections on several criteria, including portability, performance, user-friendly interface, and safety features. Due to Prasad's emphasis on safety, we made sure that all of our picks (apart from the solar-powered option) feature some kind of carbon monoxide detection and shut-off system.Portable generator FAQsWhat size generator do I need to run my house?To calculate the size of the generator you need, first add up the wattage requirements for all the items you plan on powering at the same time. The Home Depot has a convenient formula to determine the total wattage needed for each item: Running Wattage (R) + Starting Wattage (R x 3) = Total wattage needed. Keep in mind that even the best portable generators are really only meant to run a few core items at a time. "If you plan on running all of the appliances, heating/air conditioning, and lights in your house during a hurricane when the power goes out, a portable generator is not the answer," said Prasad. To continue running everything as usual, you'll need a much larger whole-house generator. Is an inverter better than a generator?Inverter generators aren't necessarily better than other types of generators, but they do have their advantages. They have superior fuel efficiency, and are also typically lighter and more compact than standard generators, which makes them more convenient for transport and storage. What are the disadvantages of an inverter generator?Inverter generators tend to be more expensive upfront than conventional options, and have a lower power output.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 23rd, 2024

Cargo Owners Consider Airfreight Alternative To Red Sea Shipping Delays

Cargo Owners Consider Airfreight Alternative To Red Sea Shipping Delays By Eric Kullisch of FreightWaves Global businesses, uncertain how long the shipping crisis in the Red Sea will last and with a looming shortage of vessels for the export rush before China’s New Year celebration, are scrambling to shift some ocean cargo to airlines, according to logistics specialists. The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Truxtun operates in the Red Sea near a commercial vessel on May 1, 2023. Major container lines have rerouted vessels around the Horn of Africa or docked them in safe locations to avoid the threat of drone and missile attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The Houthis say they are targeting vessels with links to Israel in support of Palestinians under siege in the Gaza Strip. Thirty percent of container volumes transit the Red Sea and Suez Canal shortcut between Europe and Asia. The strikes on commercial shipping come as drought conditions force the Panama Canal, another trade chokepoint, to limit transits because of insufficient water to operate massive locks. Some vessel operators recently shifted services to the Suez route to avoid Panama transit delays and now are in a double bind. With no end in sight to the Gaza war and tensions rising, air cargo providers could see a surge in business following a prolonged market downturn that only lifted in recent months behind rising e-commerce exports from China for the holidays. “The e-commerce wave just broke and rates began crashing down this week. We expect the Red Sea shipping crisis will reverse this,” Marc Schlossberg, executive vice president at Unique Logistics International, told FreightWaves. “We are already seeing an impact on airfreight across multiple regions, industries, and supply chains. Some retailers are already flipping cargo bound for the U.S. East Coast from ocean to air from the Indian subcontinent as there are no good options that do not add two weeks. We have other customers assessing their needs to the U.K. and Europe from Asia.” Shipping experts say diversion around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds seven to 14 days’ sailing time to Europe and five to seven days to the U.S. East Coast, has unleashed a chain reaction that includes knocking vessels off scheduled arrivals, vessel bunching in ports, terminal congestion and difficulty repositioning containers around the world. Transits could be longer in some cases because the tip of Africa often has rough seas and storms. Vessels returning to reload with factory goods in Asia will now arrive a couple of weeks late for the seasonal pickup before Chinese New Year, which will result in a shortfall of shipping capacity, said Lars Jensen, CEO of consultancy Vespucci Maritime, on a Wednesday webinar presented by freight forwarder Flexport. Chinese New Year falls on Feb. 10, but factories will begin to slow production in mid-January before completely shutting down for the holiday and then slowly ramping up again — a lull that can last more than a month. Businesses pull forward their shipping requirements each year, which leads to a rush at Chinese ports, transportation delays and increased shipping rates. About 540 vessels are assigned to Suez services, with 136 currently being diverted around Africa and 42 that have paused their journey, according to a Flexport analysis.  Chicago-based Seko Logistics has had some inquiries about converting ocean shipments to air leading up to the Chinese holiday, “but this could very well extend and expand into 2024,” said Chief Commercial Officer Brian Bourke in an email. About 97% of total containerized trade by weight moves by sea, so even a slight shift in the mix could have a huge impact on airfreight volumes. Importers and exporters will likely transition their most critical goods to air carriers to make sure enough arrive on time for production or sales needs, especially since many flights from Asia to Europe are still quite full, Niall van de Wuow, chief airfreight officer at market intelligence firm Xeneta, said on a company webinar. Widebody freighters could soon be in greater demand if the supply chain disruption in the Red Sea is protracted “I had a call with a global appliance company with sites around the world. Airfreight is cheaper than lines down. We expect to see an airfreight surge for manufacturing as automotive, electronics and other supply chains assess their inventory needs in the next few days,” said Schlossberg. “We have customers searching for solutions from Egypt where the ports have been shut down and from Jordan where customers are not comfortable with the cross-border option. And ocean routing via Israel and Aqaba is no longer viable,” he added. Companies spent the better part of a year bringing down excess pandemic inventories to normal levels and may not have sufficient safety stock if the Red Sea bottleneck continues to disrupt shipping, said Trine Nielsen, Flexport’s head of ocean for Europe, the Middle East and Asia. She encouraged shippers to plan for extra lead times and rate increases, and to book shipments early. “Most of our fashion apparel retail customers had a strong holiday season. Inventories are in relatively good shape so a disruption like this will drive significant airfreight demand,” echoed Schlossberg. There is less urgency to make mode-conversion decisions because the industry is past the Christmas shopping rush, but that will quickly change without a resolution of the Middle East conflict, according to logistics managers. The airfreight market could get heated by mid-January as importers place new orders with Asia suppliers, especially since many airlines reduced freighter schedules in anticipation of a lull in transport demand, said Christos Spyrou, founder and CEO of wholesale network Neutral Air Partner. He predicted an increase in charter flights to meet demand, especially for time-critical and valuable goods, as well as more use of sea-air services via Dubai to Europe. Flexport, which helps companies place orders with overseas manufacturers and then manages shipment delivery, has also fielded inquiries about deferred airfreight and sea-air options through Dubai and Doha, Qatar, said Zeid Houssami, global head of airfreight, in an email.  The hybrid services are less expensive than airfreight but faster than ocean. Air capacity on the trans-Pacific might get tighter after Chinese New Year if ocean carriers divert vessels to Asia-eastbound lanes to provide more reliability, Houssami observed. Open-ended risk to ocean shipping The Suez route attracts a high proportion of the world’s largest vessels. Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief data analyst, said shipping lines need 50 more ultralarge container ships on the eastbound corridor. Ship broker Clarksons estimates that 19% of global shipping capacity will be diverted from the Suez route.  Carriers have idle capacity at the moment, but not all vessels are suitable or can easily be restarted.  In addition to dealing with heightened supply chain uncertainty, shippers will face higher transportation costs because of the diversion of shipping away from the Red Sea. For starters, adding ships to move the same amount of containers means spending for extra crews, fuel, supplies, port charges and other expenses. If smaller ships are deployed they will have higher unit costs per nautical mile. Carriers will save $400,000 to $700,000 in Suez Canal tolls, but the 3,000 extra nautical miles to go around Africa to Europe will add $1 million in fuel costs per vessel, which will be passed on to customers, Sand explained.  Liner companies ZIM, Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk are now charging a war risk surcharge of  between $20 and $100 per container and ZIM is charging more for the longer route around Africa. Shipping line CMA CGM this week declared force majeure and implemented surcharges of up to $1,550 per container unit, depending on the origin and destination. Invoking a force majeure clause tells customers the carrier may not be able to fulfill contractual obligations due to circumstances beyond its control.  The formation of a multinational task force, led by the U.S., to protect commercial shipping is unlikely to alleviate the risk of attacks, prolonging the disruptive effects on supply chains, maritime experts say. Partner nations have previously escorted convoys to defend vessels against hijacking by Somali pirates, but air attacks present another level of danger for commercial operators. Participating navies may not have the right kind of anti-missile technology and no system is foolproof. Vespucci Maritime’s Jensen said small drones may not seem like a major threat to massive container ships but noted the danger from an explosion is fire that could quickly spread. “Are you going to risk life and limb of your seafarers and a billion dollars worth of cargo on the ship in the hope that they will shoot down all of those missiles? … Unless there is also a solution whereby the attacks themselves from land stop, or at least are eliminated drastically, I have a hard time seeing the carriers resume sending supersized post Panamax vessels through that region,” he said. The biggest shipping problem will be in the Mediterranean Sea because carriers that used to call on ports such as Genoa in Italy, on their way to major gateways in Northern Europe, will bypass the smaller destinations, said Jensen. Shippers should also brace for Med-bound containers to get stuck for up to a week in unfamiliar transshipment ports such as Tangiers in Morocco or Algeciras in Spain, where carriers will offload them to avoid lengthy detours from the main route. Jensen also warned that some consumer goods may swing back to the Panama Canal, pricing out Chilean and Peruvian agriculture growers who are less able to pay the reservation fees for priority access.  Shippers that bring products to the East Coast through the Suez Canal also have the option of using the trans-Pacific route and then moving inland by rail or truck.  Jensen said the combination of strong Chinese New Year demand and the effective decrease in global container capacity because of the extra ships necessary to sustain diversion around Africa could lead ocean rates to triple. Interviewed on CNBC on Friday, Jensen predicted the average global rate would double to about $3,000. Ocean rates are already spiraling upward. The rate for a forty-foot equivalent unit reached $1,875 between Asia and the Mediterranean on Dec. 14, according to the Xeneta platform – a 25% increase from the previous week. But shippers are being quoted more than $6,500 for high priority shipments on Mediterranean Shipping Company’s Diamond Tier service. And MSC implemented peak season surcharges of $2,000 for Asia-Mediterranean cargo. And, Jensen noted, a new European emissions trading scheme for maritime that is scheduled to go into effect on Jan. 1 will be much for expensive as carriers have to pay carbon tax on emissions for going all the way around Africa. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/22/2023 - 21:30.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytDec 22nd, 2023

Thursday links: embracing imperfection

Rates10-year Treasury yields are down nearly 100bp from their peak. (axios.com)30-year mortgage rates have dropped from 8% back to 7%. (housingwire.com)CompaniesP&G ($PG) is still writing down the value of Gillette. (wsj.com)What phrases and words companies stood out in conference calls in 2023? (ft.com)VCSimpleClosure, a start-up that helps other start-ups wind down their operations, is doing a booming business. (nytimes.com)Is Austin, TX losing its luster as a startup hub? (techcrunch.com)SpaceXSpaceX is reportedly planning a tender offer for employee shares at a $175 billion valuation. (yahoo.com)Why SpaceX continues to win new launch business. (bloomberg.com)BondsVanguard is launching new actively managed bond ETFs. (barrons.com)Electronic trading of corporate bonds is growing, albeit slowly. (axios.com)EconomyKyla Scanlon, "People are complex and economics doesn’t (can’t!) take that into consideration." (kyla.substack.com)Some things you don't see in a recession including 'Above trend consumer spending.' (carsongroup.com)Not everything is getting more expensive. (businessinsider.com)Still no sign of a sustained pickup in weekly initial unemployment claims. (bonddad.blogspot.com)Heavy truck sales grew in November. (calculatedriskblog.com)Restaurant wage growth is coming back to earth. (axios.com)Earlier on Abnormal ReturnsLongform links: acting extroverted. (abnormalreturns.com)What you missed in our Wednesday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)Personal finance links: no secret tricks. (abnormalreturns.com)Are you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter. (newsletter.abnormalreturns.com)Mixed mediaThe ad-supported Internet is collapsing in front of our eyes. (stratechery.com)The Information stands out as a digital media success, ten years in. (vanityfair.com)'News Nation' is now just Fox News-lite. (thedailybeast.com).....»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturnsDec 7th, 2023

Saturday links: our negative feelings

On Saturdays we catch up with the non-finance related items that we didn’t get to earlier in the week. You can check... TeslaWho is the audience for the Tesla ($TSLA) Cybertruck? (ritholtz.com)The Tesla ($TSLA) Cybertruck is no favor to the environment. (wired.com)EVsNow is a good time to buy an EV. (bloomberg.com)Why do EV range estimates vary so much? (wsj.com)Which EVs charge the fastest? (arstechnica.com)A look at the growing Formula E circuit. (wsj.com)TransportHow e-bikes and scooters reduce carbon emissions more effectively than EVs. (arstechnica.com)How electrified trailers can increase truck efficiency. (newatlas.com)This Georgia suburb has nearly as many golf carts are residents. (nytimes.com)EnergyRenewable energy is getting deployed faster than thought just a couple of years ago. (wsj.com)Portgual just ran for six days in a row on 100% renewable energy. (grist.org)How “enhanced” geothermal systems work. (wired.com)Coal kills. (science.org)EnvironmentGraphyte is pioneering a way to store carbon more cheaply. (wsj.com)The Connecticut River has an invasive plant problem. (nytimes.com)AnimalsWild striated caracaras, and birds in general, are smarter than you think. (nytimes.com)Scientists in South Africa have rediscovered 11 De Winton's golden moles, which haven't been seen since 1936. (npr.org)The U.S. is finally going to designated the wolverine as an endangered species. (semafor.com)Giant sloths a long time ago dug giant tunnels. (bbc.com)SpaceIt's easy to forget, but space is an unforgiving place for humans. (arstechnica.com)To colonize another planet you are going to need bugs, lot of bugs. (nytimes.com)Do we really need people to explore space? (insidehook.com)ScienceThree things to know about scientific research and how to spot iffy studies. (theatlantic.com)Why we keep pushing back the date of major human accomplishment, like the building of a pyramid. (scientificamerican.com)FriendshipIn praise of inter-generational friendships. (vox.com)The case for having friends in different generations. (theatlantic.com)Why men have fewer friends than women. (fatherly.com)BehaviorSeven habits that work until they don't, including 'grit.' (thegrowtheq.com)Every setback in life doesn't have to have some bigger meaning. (nytimes.com)Not everyone has a good experience with psychedelics. (thedailybeast.com)SuicideThe suicide rate in the U.S. hit a record high in 2022. (wsj.com)Half of the country's gun deaths are due to suicide. (theguardian.com)CovidLong Covid rates are seemingly easing. (scientificamerican.com)Covid vaccines halted the pandemic-led increase in premature births. (sciencedaily.com)Respiratory virusesWe are facing three seasonal respiratory viruses going forward. (wsj.com)Why older Americans should add RSV to their annual vaccinations. (nextavenue.org)Three seasonal viruses are worse than two. (theatlantic.com)There's really no treatment for the common cold. (npr.org)LongevityFour thoughts on life expectancy. (vox.com)The problem with the 'deaths of despair' thesis. (science.org)Do 'Blue Zones' really exist? (slate.com)GLP-1sMounjaro is seemingly more effective than Ozempic for weight loss. (cnbc.com)GLP-1 treatment also seems to help with alcohol use disorder. (psychiatrist.com)HealthSickle-cell disease is an obvious target for CRISPR. (theatlantic.com)J&J ($JNJ) is spending big on data scientists. (wsj.com)Reducing salt consumption really can lower blood pressure. (fatherly.com)Your gut has a mind of its own. (quantamagazine.org)How much caffeine is too much. (scientificamerican.com)FitnessThere is no endpoint to an anti-aging lifestyle. (theguardian.com)The elements of good health are pretty simple. (primecuts.substack.com)What is the protein leverage hypothesis? (artofmanliness.com)Why are we still using BMI? (theatlantic.com)FarmingThe use of fertilizer is a delicate balancing act. (modernfarmer.com)The U.S. has a glut of apples this year. (npr.org)PastaGluten-free pastas are coming in all sorts of flavors these days. (theatlantic.com)Vegan Kraft ($KFT) Mac and Cheese? Sure, why not... (fastcompany.com)FoodHow liking Chick-Fil-A became a political hot button issue. (fastcompany.com)Why caviar is seemingly everywhere these days. (eater.com)How Diet Coke got so expensive. (vox.com)MoviesThe best movies of 2023 including 'Pinball: The Man Who Saved the Game.' (newyorker.com)The best movies of 2023 including 'Past Lives.' (nytimes.com)TVThe best TV shows of 2023 including 'The Bear.' (nytimes.com)The best TV shows of 2023 including 'Barry.' (economist.com)MediaHow Serbia became a hotbed for foreign film shoots. (deadline.com)Four things Bob Iger can do to turn around Disney ($DIS) including a push into gaming. (variety.com)Who, if anyone, is going to buy Paramount ($PARA)? (theringer.com)SportsWhy more players are deliberately shooting free throws off the backboard. (wsj.com)More evidence that heading the ball isn't good for the brain. (fastcompany.com)Business of sportsWhy Mark Cuban sold a stake in the Dallas Mavericks. (huddleup.substack.com)SailGP is selling off its team to investors. (frontofficesports.com)The Winter Olympics is running out of good places to host the games. (semafor.com)ChildrenHow to talk to your teenagers, including 'Instead of orders, offer a choice.' (bakadesuyo.com)What matters for childhood outcomes? (emilyoster.substack.com)The problem with online gradebooks. (nytimes.com)Earlier on Abnormal ReturnsWhat you missed in our Friday linkest. (abnormalreturns.com)Podcast links: an investing paradox. (abnormalreturns.com)On the end of the influential The Reformed Broker blog. (abnormalreturns.com)Are you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter. (newsletter.abnormalreturns.com)Mixed mediaThis week was a weird one, for sure. (blairbellecurve.com)Why 'late bloomers,' i.e. later in life college graduates matter. (papers.ssrn.com)On the economics of (real) Christmas trees. (thehustle.co).....»»

Category: blogSource: abnormalreturnsDec 2nd, 2023

Layoffs And Bankruptcies Pile Up In Logistics Amid Shocking Downturn

Layoffs And Bankruptcies Pile Up In Logistics Amid Shocking Downturn By Craig Fuller, CEO of FreightWaves Since launching in 2017, FreightWaves’ team of award-winning reporters has covered the good — and bad — news and events in the transportation and logistics industries. In those years, the freight transportation market has enjoyed prosperous times and periods of pain and misery. The freight market undergoes boom-and-bust cycles, like all commoditized industries. FreightWaves SONAR correctly predicted the start of a drop in the freight market in March 2022. Since then, the overcapacity spurred by the pandemic has caused freight-hauling rates to drop to 2019 levels — or worse. For the past 18-plus months, there have simply been too many trucks for too little freight. However, the impact has gone beyond U.S. trucking fleets and freight brokerages. The problems are not confined to the United States or just trucking. Ocean carriers, railroads, air cargo carriers and freight forwarders around the world have been impacted as well. No one at FreightWaves enjoys reporting bad news. One of my followers on X recently commented, “Everything you post/repost or talk about is doom and gloom. I challenge you to say/find something positive about the economy pertaining to the trucking industry.” I would love to do so. Unfortunately, the good news in freight, transportation and logistics has been sparse Severe recession in the freight market  After the market began to prove FreightWaves SONAR’s downturn prediction, some analysts and industry experts said the freight slowdown was a reversion to the mean. Unfortunately, it is not. We are in one of the worst downturns in freight market history, caused by a massive buildup of capacity, and it’s going to take time to burn it all off. Simply put, the freight market is experiencing a severe recession. FreightWaves has an obligation to report that news. Since early in 2022, many companies have gone out of business or severely cut back by letting employees go. Some of those companies were household names in the industry, such as Yellow Corp. and Convoy. Many others were much smaller, not known perhaps beyond their headquarters location. Nonetheless, the bankruptcies, closures and layoffs have piled up, and the financial and human losses have taken a toll. The following synopses are some of the articles that FreightWaves has published in the past year that illustrate the poor freight economy. The full articles can be read by following the links; ongoing coverage of the “state of freight” can be found here on FreightWaves.com. Bankruptcies and shutdowns  Nov. 6: A court ordered liquidation of Twin Express, a Minnesota trucking company with 76 employees, as FreightWaves’ Clarissa Hawes reported. The 35-year-old company defaulted on a $19 million dollar loan. Oct. 23: After its founder embezzled $25 million to purchase a G-550 jet and a $5 million mansion in Texas, Goldman Sachs-backed Slync wound down operations and hopes to sell its proprietary technology, as Hawes reported. Oct. 22: Fort Worth-based SEL Supply Chain Solutions shut down, Hawes reported. Closure of the freight brokerage — that at one time had $65 million in revenue — left 125 employees out of work. Oct. 19: Convoy, a venture capital-backed digital freight brokerage, shut down, as FreightWaves’ John Kingston reported. Valued at $3.8 billion, the “perfect storm” of the freight recession coupled with tighter capital markets was blamed for the company’s failure. Oct. 19: A third-generation, family-owned trucking company and brokerage, Certified Freight Logistics, ceased operations after 95 years, as FreightWaves’ Hawes reported. Layoffs impacted 157 workers, including 101 linehaul and local truck drivers. The wind-down of the Santa Maria, California-based company was expected to be completed by Nov. 18.  Oct. 12: Meadow Lark Transport, a 40-year-old Montana trucking company and freight brokerage that previously generated $200 million in revenue, shuttered operations, Hawes reported. The company had 273 drivers and 337 power units at the time of its closure, according to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration. FMCSA data states the company’s brokerage authority was involuntarily revoked on Aug. 15 and its contract carrier authority was slated to be canceled on Oct. 28. Sept. 29: Grand Rapids, Michigan-based Titan Transportation Services Inc. abruptly ceased operations on Sept. 29, as Hawes reported. Owner-operators said on Oct. 11 that the company, doing business as Sunset Logistics, still hadn’t refunded their $1,000 in escrow or maintenance account funds. Sept. 25: An 85-year-old Indiana-based trucking and logistics company and its affiliates filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection less than nine months after it was acquired by private-equity firm Transport Acquisitions, as FreightWaves’ Hawes reported. Founded in 1938, Otwell, Indiana-based Elmer Buchta Trucking, which offered bulk, dry van and pneumatic trucking services, had 100 drivers and more than 230 power units, according to federal data. Aug. 31: U.S. Postal Service contractor Matheson Flight Extenders filed paperwork stating that it planned to eliminate 305 jobs and close its sorting facility in Chicopee, Massachusetts, by the end of October, Hawes reported. That brought to about 1,000 the total job cuts it announced in the days around that time. Two other sorting facilities in Georgia and Maryland were also closed. Aug. 7: Yellow Corp. filed for bankruptcy, leaving 30,000 employees out of work, as FreightWaves’ Todd Maiden reported. This number included approximately 22,500 members of the Teamsters union. The bankruptcy marked the end of the 99-year-old LTL company. Aug. 7: FreightWaves’ Eric Kulisch reported Western Global Airlines, which operates chartered cargo jets for the U.S. military and other customers, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and announced it will restructure. The company has nearly $500 million in debt. A bankruptcy restructuring has been expected for weeks because of collapsing revenues, a heavy debt load and the decision by credit rating agencies to pull their coverage because of the company’s lack of financial transparency. Bloomberg previously reported that Estero, Florida-based Western Global Airlines was arranging debtor-in-possession financing to support ongoing operations under a court-approved bankruptcy plan. July 25: After experiencing record sales growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, digital freight brokerage Surge Transportation filed for bankruptcy protection, as FreightWaves’ Hawes reported. The company said it was unprepared for the abrupt decline in product demand and soaring shipping costs that rocked the transportation industry.  July 17: Georgia-based trucking company Big J Express LLC, which reported a significant drop in revenue this year compared with the previous two years, filed for bankruptcy liquidation, Hawes reported. The company, which obtained its operating authority in 2014, had 37 drivers and the same number of power units and hauled general freight. Headquartered in Norcross, Georgia, Big J Express filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Georgia. June 29: Cargo airline Amerijet laid off more than a dozen employees as the freight recession drags on, FreightWaves’ Kulisch reported. The airline said the move was necessary to protect its bottom line as revenues sag and costs rise. June 28: Ameritrans Express filed a bankruptcy petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, as Hawes reported. Owner Frederick Amankwaahe waited almost four months before filing the Chapter 11 petition seeking to reorganize his company. Ameritrans provided transportation and delivery services as a contractor for the Postal Service. Its former employees are owed millions in unpaid wages. June 28: More than 60 small trucking companies are collectively owed millions of dollars after Transplus Freight System Inc. (Transplus), a Mississippi-based logistics firm, filed for bankruptcy liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Mississippi. FreightWaves’ Hawes reported the story. June 27: Ailing commercial electric pickup truck maker Lordstown Motors filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. It also put itself up for sale and sued former partner Foxconn, alleging fraud and failure by Foxconn to live up to its financial commitments. June 16: Tiger Cool Express, a refrigerated rail shipping and logistics company, abruptly halted operations amid financial troubles. The company reportedly fell behind on loan payments. FreightWaves’ Hawes reported the story. May 26: Peace Equipment LLC, headquartered in Edcouch, Texas, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, citing rising operating costs and “reduced income in the trucking industry.” The company, which has been operating since 2016, has 38 drivers and 27 power units and hauls general freight, fresh produce and refrigerated food throughout the U.S. Hawes reported the story. March 24: Soler & Soler Hauling, a Miami-based trucking company, filed for bankruptcy protection. The company’s bankruptcy petition cited negative cash flow as well as high fuel and operating costs as factors for the bankruptcy. FreightWaves’ Hawes reported the story. March 22: Hawes reported that trucking company Flagship Transport abruptly ceased operations, leaving more than 450 truck drivers without jobs after they were not paid for weeks. Flagship Transport was a logistics holding company headquartered in Medley, Florida. March 7: FreightWorks Transport shut down after losing its top customer. The North Carolina-based trucking company laid off over 200 employees, including 140 drivers. FreightWaves’ Hawes reported the story. Late November 2022: Art Mulder & Sons, a family-owned trucking company that had been in business for more than 50 years, ceased operations. The Holland, Michigan-based company specialized in refrigerated LTL freight. Hawes reported the story. Nov. 26, 2022: Family-owned Mid Continent Trucking, a Denison, Iowa-based refrigerated carrier in business for 24 years, ceased operations. Co-owner Brian Wickersham said, “I would rather be able to pay my employees while I still have the money than wait until I don’t have it and then have to tell my employees that I can’t pay them.” FreightWaves’ Hawes reported the story. Nov. 16, 2022: Freon Logistics, a Bakersfield, California-based trucking company, filed for bankruptcy. It provided truckload, less-than-truckload, intermodal, repair and maintenance, and warehousing services. Freon Logistics employed about 500 people, including truck drivers, administrative personnel and others, according to court records. Many employees claimed they were owed back pay. Hawes reported the story. Sept. 30, 2022: Two trucking companies that contracted with the Postal Service to haul mail filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. McClellan Trucking Inc. filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania on Sept. 28, five days after the company’s parent company, Duran Transfer Inc., filed for bankruptcy protection on Sept. 23. The petitions state both companies are based at the same address in Waterford, Pennsylvania. The companies had been in business for more than 30 years and employed 23 people. FreightWaves’ Hawes reported the story. July 6, 2022: Vermont-based LTL carrier LandAir, which focused on hauling hazardous materials, ceased operations. The private equity-owned trucking company had 135 drivers and 148 power units at 11 service centers in the U.S., as well as two service centers in Toronto and Ottawa, Ontario. The 54-year-old company serviced the Northeast and parts of Canada. Originally called Allied Air Freight, the company was founded by Fred Spencer in 1968. Hawes reported the story. May 6, 2022: Family-owned Rooney Trucking Inc., headquartered in Polo, Missouri, ceased operations and filed Chapter 7 bankruptcy. The company contracted with the Postal Service to haul mail. Attorney Ryan Blay stated, “Fuel and labor expenses were certainly issues that affected Rooney Trucking Inc. The bigger issue, though, was the decision by the U.S. Postal Service to take away some routes and cancel certain contracts. The business couldn’t function profitably with a restricted income stream. This was the biggest factor in deciding to declare bankruptcy for the company.” FreightWaves’ Hawes reported the story. April 26, 2022: Sullivan, Illinois-based Marvin Keller Trucking filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, citing a jury award of $10 million in December 2021. The bankruptcy petition, filed in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Central District of Illinois, stated the bankruptcy filing was necessary to “avoid irreparable and immediate harm” to the carrier’s operations. The company also noted higher fuel costs and “other market conditions” as reasons for the filing. Hawes reported the story. Layoffs Nov. 16: Vehicle life cycle management software provider Solera Holdings Inc. conducted a round of layoffs via Teams on Nov. 13. According to an update on Layoff.com, West Lake, Texas-based Solera released 44 members of its U.S.-based billing team and “now all of their billing is done in Mexico.” FreightWaves’ Grace Sharkey reported the story. Nov. 15: Trucking company 10 Roads Express laid off 66 workers at its facility in Fort Worth, citing the cancellation of postal contracts. The layoffs, which occurred Oct. 16, affected 55 truck drivers, four dispatchers and seven mechanics, according to a recent filing with the Texas Workforce Commission. FreightWaves’ Noi Mahoney reported the story. Nov. 8: Hyliion Holdings gives up its electric powertrain business to focus exclusively on its generator technology and cutting 175 jobs in the process. Nov. 4: Approximately 65 employees of Pittsburgh-based Elite Transit Solutions were laid off. This was the second round of job cuts the freight brokerage has experienced over the past month; about 20 employees were let go on Oct. 20. Hawes reported the story. Nov. 6: Nearly 200 senior pilots at UPS accepted the company’s voluntary severance package, and regional passenger airline PSA Airlines is trying to recruit them to close a crew shortage. The head count reduction at UPS Airlines is much more limited than one envisioned at rival FedEx Express, where management has acknowledged it has more than 700 excess pilots and recently urged flight crews to quit for the same type of offer at PSA Airlines, an American Airlines subsidiary that operates in the eastern United States. FreightWaves’ Kulisch reported the story. Nov. 3: Maersk announced plans to lay off 10,000 workers over the next year in light of “worsening market conditions.” The company has already conducted 6,500 of the layoffs, but those were unannounced. FreightWaves’ Greg Miller reported the story. Oct. 13: Flexport laid off 600 workers. Flexport implemented a 20% workforce reduction as the freight forwarder moved to plug financial losses and become more nimble. Kulisch reported the story. Sept. 29: Following a sale of BNSF Logistics’ brokerage unit to J.B. Hunt, an undisclosed number of employees were laid off. FreightWaves’ Joanna Marsh reported the story. Sept. 27: Seattle-based logistics provider Flexe conducted its second round of layoffs in 14 months and fired 33% of the company — about 400 workers. FreightWaves’ Mahoney reported the story. Sept. 12: GXO Logistics laid off 92 workers at a Texas distribution center. The contract supply chain solutions provider is ceasing operations at a distribution center in Wilmer, Texas. Mahoney reported the story. Sept. 1: Coyote Logistics laid off an unspecified number of employees. FreightWaves’ Rachel Premack reported the story. Aug. 31: Union Pacific furloughed at least 94 employees due to a drop in rail traffic. The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, a union, said Union Pacific was planning to store hundreds of locomotives as demand for rail traffic has dropped. FreightWaves’ Marsh reported the story.  Aug. 24: Nationwide moving and storage company WayForth laid off hundreds of employees and shuttered operations in eight states in an effort to stay afloat, as FreightWaves’ Hawes reported. The company’s CEO said the layoffs and reorganization were the result of a downturn in its business, which focuses on moving and storage services for seniors. The company planned to slash its workforce from about 500 employees to 50; laid off employees did not receive any severance packages. The company is exiting markets in Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Texas. FreightWaves’ Mahoney reported the story. Aug. 4: FedEx Corp., the nationwide parcel delivery giant, said it was eliminating 280 of 806 jobs at a facility in Fort Worth, Texas, after losing a customer. Mahoney reported the story. July 11: Freightos laid off 13% of employees as its revenue weakened. The digital freight marketplace also downgraded its 2023 guidance. FreightWaves’ Kulisch reported the story. June 29: Cargo airline Amerijet laid off more than a dozen workers. FreightWaves’ Kulisch reported the story. June 1: Venture capital-backed trucking technology provider CloudTrucks laid off an undisclosed number of employees. However, a source close to the company claimed that 40% of the CloudTrucks team was let go. Like many FreightTech companies that have laid off workers in recent months, CloudTrucks blamed the declining freight market for the job cuts. The company had raised nearly $142 million since its founding in 2019. FreightWaves’ Hawes reported the story. May 19: DHL Supply Chain and GXO Logistics laid off 80 workers in Texas, citing a loss of customers. FreightWaves’ Mahoney reported the story. May 19: Coyote Logistics announced more layoffs; this round comes after a reported 200 job cuts in February. May 11: U.S. Xpress laid off 150 staff members and reported a significant loss to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Knight-Swift acquired U.S. Xpress effective July 1. FreightWaves’ Kingston reported the story. May 9: Freight broker Lipsey Logistics cited a weak freight market as the reason for layoffs. A source familiar with the layoffs said an estimated 20 jobs were cut. FreightWaves’ Hawes reported the story. April 21: Flock Freight laid off 45 people — 8% of its workforce — in a second round of firings. More than 60 workers were fired in December 2022. Hawes reported the story. March 8: Global logistics giant Ceva Logistics cut 142 jobs at two of its facilities in Mount Juliet, Tennessee, effective April 22. Prior to the firings there were about 700 employees at the facilities. FreightWaves’ Hawes reported the story. Feb. 16: Convoy laid off an undisclosed number of employees and closed its Atlanta office. (Convoy ultimately closed in October 2023.) FreightWaves’ Sharkey reported the story. Jan. 23: Uber Freight cut about 150 jobs — 3% of its workforce. All the job losses were in its digital brokerage operations. FreightWaves’ Kingston reported the story. Jan. 18: Logistics giant Ryder laid off 800 workers in Texas. Ryder said the cutback was “due to a customer’s changing business needs.” FreightWaves’ Mahoney reported the story. Jan. 13: Electric truck manufacturer Nikola filed a layoff notice for employees of the former Romeo Power battery-making plant in California, affecting up to 400 workers. Nikola is transferring battery pack manufacturing to Arizona. FreightWaves’ Alan Adler reported the story.  Jan. 11: Flexport laid off about 20% of its employees. Its leadership said they would cut workers because the company had increasingly automated key systems and forecast decreased freight volumes. FreightWaves’ Kulisch reported the story. Jan. 3: Wells Fargo Bank filed a petition to force United Furniture Industries into Chapter 7 bankruptcy after UFI’s abrupt decision to cease operations two days before Thanksgiving 2022, as FreightWaves’ Hawes reported. Dec. 12, 2022: Fleet management solutions provider Motive laid off about 240 workers (6% of its workforce), blaming slowing demand. FreightWaves’ Mahoney reported the story. Dec. 12, 2022: Auto manufacturer Stellantis announced plans to close an Illinois automobile factory in February 2023, terminating 1,350 workers. The company blamed rising electric vehicle costs for the shutdown. Mahoney reported the story. Nov. 9, 2022: Freight brokerage giant C.H. Robinson laid off about 650 employees amid weaker-than-expected financial results in the third quarter of 2022. Oct. 29, 2022: Trucking payments platform AtoB laid off 30% of its employees, citing “external economic headwinds.” FreightWaves’ Mahoney reported the story. July 8, 2022: Logistics provider GXO announced it was closing a Milwaukee facility, laying off 144 workers. Mahoney reported the story. July 8, 2022: LandAir’s 450 employees were terminated, some via Zoom video call. Former workers and drivers said the management ran the LTL carrier “into the ground.” FreightWaves’ Hawes reported the story. June 21, 2022: Logistics company DB Schenker announced 130 employees would be laid off at its Fort Worth facility after it lost a Kraft Heinz contract. FreightWaves’ Mahoney reported the story. June 10, 2022: Global logistics provider Neovia cut 98 jobs at its Tannersville, Pennsylvania, facility. FreightWaves’ Hawes reported the story. April 14, 2022: Logistics giants Geodis and Ceva filed paperwork for hundreds of job cuts in Ohio. Geodis, headquartered in France, announced that it would close all business operations at its facility in Columbus, eliminating 302 jobs by the end of September 2022. Ceva Logistics, which is owned by French container carrier CMA CGM, said it would close a portion of the Groveport facility, located near Columbus, by Sept. 30. Hawes reported the story. Tyler Durden Tue, 11/21/2023 - 06:30.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 21st, 2023

The Reasons Behind The Unexplained Departure Of Tesla CFO – Shortseller

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended August 31, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla’s CFO ... Read more Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended August 31, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla's CFO Departs The big August news from Tesla was the sudden and unexplained departure of its CFO, the latest in a series of sudden and unexplained Tesla CFO departures. One possible explanation is obvious: Elon Musk is a pathological liar and securities fraudster “in plain sight.” Why would he let his CFOs run the books honestly when they’re not “in plain sight” and hundreds of billions of dollars of his personal compensation depends on their results? Perhaps at some point the latest CFO decided he had pulled enough money out of the company (an incredible $590 million!) and wanted to be free to spend it, rather than behind bars dreaming about it! Or perhaps the CFO’s resignation was tied into July’s Reuters revelation of a massive & systemic Elon Musk-directed consumer fraud regarding the range of Tesla’s cars, or Musk’s alleged theft of company assets to build himself a house, both of which it was revealed in August are being investigated by the DOJ. Or perhaps the CFO quit because in May Handelsblatt revealed a massive & systemic Tesla safety cover-up while people continue to die in (or because of) Teslas at an astounding pace. Regardless, whether from these transgressions or something else, Musk will go down because people like him always do. Q2 Earnings Meanwhile, in July Tesla reported Q2 earnings that proved once again it’s now just a low-margin car company forced to continually slash prices to maintain delivery volume, and on the conference call Musk insinuated that the price-slashing will continue (as it did yet again in China in August). Rather than discuss the report here with my usual verbiage, I shall instead post a few of my Tweets from the night it was released: And one from Jim Chanos: Yes, please don’t lecture me about Tesla’s “energy business,” which in Q2 accounted for just 6% of revenue (declining from 6.5% in Q1) and likely has a net margin in the mid-single digits as it’s in an extremely competitive, low-margin industry. Also, Tesla recently announced that it will open its U.S. charging stations to cars from multiple other manufacturers which, in turn, will adopt Tesla’s connector and charging protocol. (Those competitors are building their own network, too.) Seeing as many people only buy a Tesla instead of a competing EV in order to access those chargers, and seeing as all the competing charging networks will also adopt this protocol while paying Tesla nothing (Tesla open-sourced it), this will cost Tesla far more in lost auto sale profits than the pennies per share it may gain from charging profits. Thus, any increase in Tesla’s stock price that can be attributed to this is as ridiculous as the increase attributed to its “AI” that regularly sends Teslas crashing into other vehicles, people, trees and buildings. Tesla has objectively lost its “product edge,” with many competing cars now offering comparable or better real-world range, better interiors, similar or faster charging speeds and much better quality. Tesla ranks near the bottom of both Consumer Reports’ reliability survey and the 2023 JD Power survey: In fact, Tesla is likely now the second, third or fourth choice for many EV buyers, and only maintains its volume lead though a short-lived edge in production capacity that will disappear over the next 12 to 36 months as competitors rapidly increase the ability to produce their superior EVs. Tesla’s poorly-built Model Y faces competition from the much better made (and often just better) electric Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Ford Mustang Mach E, Cadillac Lyriq, Nissan Ariya, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Chevrolet Blazer EV & Equinox EV, Volvo XC-40 Recharge and Polestar 3. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, BMW’s i4, Hyundai’s Ioniq 6 and Volkswagen’s ID.7, as well as multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Porsche Taycan outsells the Model S, while the spectacular new BMW i7, Mercedes EQS and EQE, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make the Tesla look like a fast Yugo, while the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX, Mercedes EQS SUV and Audi Q8 eTron (as well as multiple new Chinese models) do the same to the Model X. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla first previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as by the time it’s in meaningful mass-production in 2024 that grotesque-looking kluge will enter a dogfight of a market vs. Ford’s F-150 Lightning, GM’s electric Silverado, the Dodge Ram REV and Rivian’s R1T. Tesla Is Blackberry Indeed, for years I’ve said “Tesla is Blackberry”—the maker of a first-generation version of a product that—once the market was proven—would be supplanted into niche obscurity by newer, better versions, and now it’s finally happening. I believe Musk knows this (hence his recent “Twitter buying distraction”), with VW Group, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, BYD & other Chinese competitors and, in a few years, Toyota, Nissan & Honda, stealing Tesla’s share and pounding its stock price into the low double-digits, where it will be valued as “just another car company.” Meanwhile, the NHTSA has initiated the first of what will likely be multiple recalls of Tesla’s fraudulently named “Full Self Driving” (even before the aforementioned safety cover-up revealed by Handelsblatt), and in January it was revealed that Elon Musk personally directed its fake, fraudulent promotional video (something extremely similar to what Theranos did with its blood machines and Nikola with its truck), and that the DOJ is investigating him for it and so is the SEC. The refund liability potential for Tesla for this is in the billions of dollars, and possibly even the tens of billions if a class action lawsuit proves that the cars involved were purchased solely due to the (fallacious) promise of “full self-driving.” And, of course, there will be a massive “valuation reappraisal” for Tesla’s stock as the world wakes up to the fact that its so-called “autonomy technology” is deadly, trailing-edge garbage that Consumer Reports now ranks just seventh vs. competitors’ systems (behind Ford, GM, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota and Volkswagen) and Guidehouse Insights now rates dead last: Yet Tesla has sold this trashy software for almost seven years now… …and still promotes it on its website via the aforementioned completely fraudulent video! (For all Tesla-related deaths cited in the media—which is likely only a small fraction of those that have occurred—please see this spreadsheet.) Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market, even if Tesla makes some of its own,  other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone, and BMW has already announced it will buy them from CATL and EVE. So Here Is Tesla's Competition In Cars... (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Macan Electric Coming in 2024 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz Electric Van Volkswagen ID.7 VW's ID.2all compact EV will cost under €25,000 when it arrives in 2025 VW’s Cupra Born Volkswagen Group Will Spend $200 Billion To Boost Its EV Business Audi Q8 e-tron electric SUV Audi e-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron electric SUV Audi A6 E-tron due in early 2024 with saloon, estate and hot RS6 Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis GV60 Genesis GV70 Kia Niro Kia EV6 Kia EV9 Kia EV5 Kia EV4 Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Mercedes EQS Mercedes EQS SUV Mercedes EQE Mercedes EQE SUV Mercedes EQC electric SUV available in Europe & China Mercedes EQV Electric Passenger Van Mercedes EQB Mercedes EQA SUV Ford Mustang Mach-E Ford F-150 Lightning Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford unveils Lincoln Star electric SUV concept as it readies to add four new EVs by 2026 Chevrolet Blazer EV Chevrolet Equinox EV Chevrolet Bolt Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq Cadillac to start making 3 more EVs in 2024 GMC Electric Hummer Pick-Up and SUV GM electric Silverado pickup truck GMC Sierra EV Denali GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services GM & Honda Will Codevelop Affordable EVs Targeting Most Popular Vehicle Segments Two Jeep EVs to make U.S. debuts in 2024 BMW iX2 BMW iX3 BMW iX BMW i4 sedan BMW i7 BMW iX1 Nissan Ariya: All-Electric Crossover SUV Nissan LEAF e+ Polestar 2 sedan Polestar 3 electric SUV Volvo EX30 Volvo XC40 Recharge electric SUV Volvo C40 Recharge electric crossover Volvo EX90 electric SUV Acura ZDX Renault Zoe electric Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's Megane E-Tech Dodge Ram 1500 REV Honda, Sony to start premium EV deliveries in 2026 Honda pours $40 billion into electrification, targets 2 million EV production by 2030 Peugeot e-208 Peugeot E-2008 Peugeot E-308 Peugeot's full-electric 3008 and 5008 SUVs will have up to 700 km range Subaru Solterra Subaru accelerates U.S. electric plans with local production and 8-model EV lineup Citroen e-C3 Rivian electric pickup trucks & SUVs Maserati Grecale Folgore Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota bZ4X Toyota and Lexus Will Launch 10 New EVs By 2026 Opel Corsa-e Opel Astra electric Vauxhall Mokka electric Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV Skoda Enyaq electric coupe BYD presents three BEVs for European market Nio expands into Europe and beyond Lucid Motors: Electric Luxury Cars Fisker Ocean Rolls-Royce Electric Spectre Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 And in China... BYD is #1 in Chinese EVs, selling FAR more than Tesla Volkswagen Group Accelerates Electrification Drive to Boost Presence in Chinese Market Audi, SAIC EV Tie-Up a ‘Coming of Age’ for Chinese Automaking Audi-FAW's $3.3 billion electric vehicle venture Nio Xpeng Motors Hozon/Neta Li Auto GAC Aion Leap Motors GM plans to launch over 15 EV models in China by 2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E Rolls Off Assembly Line in China Cheaper than Tesla: Honda takes aim at China's middle class BMW i3 Debuts As All-Electric 3 Series Only For China Hongqi Geely Zeekr Premium EVs by Geely Baidu and Geely put nearly $400 million more into their electric car venture China-made Mercedes-Benz EQE hits market BAIC Hyundai, BAIC Motor to inject $942 mn in China JV for EVs Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Lexus RZ 450e Steers For China Dongfeng SAIC Renault launches sales of first EV in China Nissan expects 40% of sales in China to be electrified by 2026 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weimar Chery Seres Enovate Singulato JAC Motors Iconiq Motors Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia Human Horizons Xiaomi announces plans for four electric vehicle models Here's Tesla's Competition In Autonomous Driving; The Independents All Have Deals With Major Oems... Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Waymo operates robotaxis NOW GM’s Cruise operates robotaxis NOW Mobileye operates driverless test fleets in Europe and the U.S. Cadillac Super Cruise™ Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Ford’s hands-free “Blue Cruise” Mercedes Launches SAE Level 3 Drive Pilot System Honda Legend Sedan with Level 3 Autonomy Now Available in Japan Motional (Hyundai) & Uber Announce Autonomous Ride-hail and Delivery Services Stellantis Completes Acquisition of aiMotive to Accelerate Autonomous Driving Journey Amazon’s Zoox will test its autonomous vehicles on Seattle’s rainy streets Baidu to further deploy 200 driverless vehicles in China in 2023 Baidu Apollo City Driving Max Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Pony.ai approved for public driverless robotaxi service in Beijing SAIC-backed Xiangdao Chuxing kicks off Robotaxi pilot operation in Shenzhen WeRide greenlighted for autonomous road test with empty driver’s seat in Beijing GAC-backed Ontime greenlighted for pilot operation of Robotaxi service in Guangzhou Xpeng debuts most advanced semi-autonomous driving system to rival Tesla Here's Where Tesla's Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells... Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Northvolt Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe GM’s Ultium GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems SK On and Ford form BlueOval SK, an EV battery joint venture Hyundai teams with SK to make batteries for U.S.-built EVs Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and Samsung SDI to Invest Over $2.5B in Battery Production Plant in United States Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Mercedes-Benz and Sila achieve breakthrough with high silicon automotive battery Toyota pledges $2.1bn more for U.S. EV battery plant Toyota to roll out solid-state-battery EVs as soon as 2027 Nissan preps an old engine plant to make solid-state EV batteries Honda and LG Energy Formally Establish Battery Production Joint Venture Honda, GS Yuasa agree to collaborate in lithium-ion batteries Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries Foxconn breaks ground on first EV battery plant Envision-AESC ONE EVE Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Morrow Amprius CALB And Here's Tesla's Competition In Storage Batteries... Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions CATL BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Generac GM Energy Canadian Solar Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS Electriq Power Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bollore Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei Toyota ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium Alfen Quino Energy Gotion ZincFive Dragonfly Energy Salgenx Lunar Energy Thanks, Mark Spiegel Stanphyl Capital.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 1st, 2023

Tesla Proves That It Is Just A Low-Margin Car Company – Shortseller

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended July 31, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). A Low-Margin ... Read more Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended July 31, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). A Low-Margin Car Company In July Tesla reported Q2 earnings that proved once again it’s now just a low-margin car company forced to continually slash prices to maintain delivery volume, and on the conference call Musk insinuated that the price-slashing will continue. Rather than discuss the report here with my usual verbiage, I shall instead post a few of my Tweets from the night it was released: And one from Jim Chanos: Yes, please don’t lecture me about Tesla’s “energy business,” which in Q2 accounted for just 6% of revenue (declining from 6.5% in Q1) and likely has a net margin in the mid-single digits as it’s in an extremely competitive, low-margin industry. Safety Cover-Up As mentioned at the beginning of this letter, in July Reuters revealed a massive & systemic Elon Musk-directed Tesla consumer fraud regarding the range of its cars, while in May Handelsblatt did the same for a massive & systemic Tesla safety cover-up (while people are now dying in or because of Teslas at an astounding pace). I believe one or both of these egregious deceptions will finally force Musk from the company and regulators to crack down hard, as well as destroy whatever remains of Tesla’s rapidly diminishing consumer goodwill. Also, Tesla recently announced that it will open its U.S. charging stations to cars from multiple other manufacturers which, in turn, will adopt Tesla’s connector and charging protocol. (Those competitors are building their own network, too.) Seeing as many people only buy a Tesla instead of a competing EV in order to access those chargers, and seeing as all the competing charging networks will also adopt this protocol while paying Tesla nothing (Tesla open-sourced it), this will cost Tesla far more in lost auto sale profits than the pennies per share it may gain from charging profits. Thus, any increase in Tesla’s stock price that can be attributed to this is as ridiculous as the increase attributed to its “AI” that regularly sends Teslas crashing into other vehicles, people, trees and buildings. No Product Edge Tesla has objectively lost its “product edge,” with many competing cars now offering comparable or better real-world range, better interiors, similar or faster charging speeds and much better quality. Tesla ranks near the bottom of both Consumer Reports’ reliability survey and the 2023 JD Power survey: In fact, Tesla is likely now the second, third or fourth choice for many EV buyers, and only maintains its volume lead though a short-lived edge in production capacity that will disappear over the next 12 to 36 months as competitors rapidly increase the ability to produce their superior EVs. Tesla’s poorly-built Model Y faces competition from the much better made (and often just better) electric Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Ford Mustang Mach E, Cadillac Lyriq, Nissan Ariya, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Chevrolet Blazer EV & Equinox EV, Volvo XC-40 Recharge and Polestar 3. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, BMW’s i4, Hyundai’s Ioniq 6 and Volkswagen’s ID.7, as well as multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Porsche Taycan outsells the Model S, while the spectacular new BMW i7, Mercedes EQS and EQE, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make the Tesla look like a fast Yugo, while the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX, Mercedes EQS SUV and Audi Q8 eTron (as well as multiple new Chinese models) do the same to the Model X. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla first previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as by the time it’s in meaningful mass-production in 2024 that grotesque-looking kluge will enter a dogfight of a market vs. Ford’s F-150 Lightning, GM’s electric Silverado, the Dodge Ram REV and Rivian’s R1T. Tesla Is Blackberry Indeed, for years I’ve said “Tesla is Blackberry”—the maker of a first-generation version of a product that—once the market was proven—would be supplanted into niche obscurity by newer, better versions, and now it’s finally happening. I believe Musk knows this (hence his recent “Twitter buying distraction”), with VW Group, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, BYD & other Chinese competitors and, in a few years, Toyota, Nissan & Honda, stealing Tesla’s share and pounding its stock price into the low double-digits, where it will be valued as “just another car company.” Meanwhile, the NHTSA has initiated the first of what will likely be multiple recalls of Tesla’s fraudulently named “Full Self Driving” (even before the aforementioned safety cover-up revealed by Handelsblatt), and in January it was revealed that Elon Musk personally directed its fake, fraudulent promotional video (something extremely similar to what Theranos did with its blood machines and Nikola with its truck), and that the DOJ is investigating him for it and so is the SEC. The refund liability potential for Tesla for this is in the billions of dollars, and possibly even the tens of billions if a class action lawsuit proves that the cars involved were purchased solely due to the (fallacious) promise of “full self-driving.” And, of course, there will be a massive “valuation reappraisal” for Tesla’s stock as the world wakes up to the fact that its so-called “autonomy technology” is deadly, trailing-edge garbage that Consumer Reports now ranks just seventh vs. competitors’ systems (behind Ford, GM, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota and Volkswagen) and Guidehouse Insights now rates dead last: Yet Tesla has sold this trashy software for over six years now… …and still promotes it on its website via the aforementioned completely fraudulent video! (For all Tesla-related deaths cited in the media—which is likely only a small fraction of those that have occurred—please see this spreadsheet.) Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market, even if Tesla makes some of its own,  other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone, and BMW has already announced it will buy them from CATL and EVE. So Here Is Tesla’s Competition In Cars… (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Macan Electric Coming in 2024 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz Electric Van Volkswagen ID.7 VW’s ID.2all compact EV will cost under €25,000 when it arrives in 2025 VW’s Cupra Born Volkswagen Group Will Spend $200 Billion To Boost Its EV Business Audi Q8 e-tron electric SUV Audi e-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron electric SUV Audi A6 E-tron due in early 2024 with saloon, estate and hot RS6 Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis GV60 Genesis GV70 Kia Niro Electric Kia EV6 Kia EV9 Kia EV4 Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Mercedes EQS Mercedes EQS SUV Mercedes EQE Mercedes EQE SUV Mercedes EQC electric SUV available in Europe & China Mercedes EQV Electric Passenger Van Mercedes EQB Mercedes EQA SUV Ford Mustang Mach-E Ford F-150 Lightning Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford unveils Lincoln Star electric SUV concept as it readies to add four new EVs by 2026 Chevrolet Blazer EV Chevrolet Equinox EV Chevrolet Bolt Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq Cadillac to start making 3 more EVs in 2024 GMC Electric Hummer Pick-Up and SUV GM electric Silverado pickup truck GMC Sierra EV Denali GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services GM & Honda Will Codevelop Affordable EVs Targeting Most Popular Vehicle Segments Two Jeep EVs to make U.S. debuts in 2024 BMW iX2 BMW iX3 BMW iX BMW i4 sedan BMW i7 BMW iX1 Nissan Ariya: All-Electric Crossover SUV Nissan LEAF e+ Polestar 2 sedan Polestar 3 electric SUV Volvo EX30 Volvo XC40 Recharge electric SUV Volvo C40 Recharge electric crossover Volvo EX90 electric SUV Renault Zoe electric Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault’s Megane E-Tech Dodge Ram 1500 REV Honda, Sony to start premium EV deliveries in 2026 Honda pours $40 billion into electrification, targets 2 million EV production by 2030 Peugeot e-208 Peugeot E-2008 Peugeot E-308 Peugeot’s full-electric 3008 and 5008 SUVs will have up to 700 km range Subaru Solterra Citroen e-C3 Rivian electric pickup trucks & SUVs Maserati Grecale Folgore Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota bZ4X Toyota and Lexus Will Launch 10 New EVs By 2026 Opel Corsa-e Opel Astra electric Vauxhall Mokka electric Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV Skoda Enyaq electric coupe BYD presents three BEVs for European market Nio expands into Europe and beyond Lucid Motors: Electric Luxury Cars Fisker Ocean Rolls-Royce Electric Spectre Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 And In China… BYD is #1 in Chinese EVs, selling FAR more than Tesla Volkswagen Group Accelerates Electrification Drive to Boost Presence in Chinese Market Audi, SAIC EV Tie-Up a ‘Coming of Age’ for Chinese Automaking Audi-FAW’s $3.3 billion electric vehicle venture Nio Xpeng Motors Hozon/Neta Li Auto GAC Aion Leap Motors GM plans to launch over 15 EV models in China by 2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E Rolls Off Assembly Line in China Cheaper than Tesla: Honda takes aim at China’s middle class BMW i3 Debuts As All-Electric 3 Series Only For China Hongqi Geely Zeekr Premium EVs by Geely Baidu and Geely put nearly $400 million more into their electric car venture China-made Mercedes-Benz EQE hits market BAIC Hyundai, BAIC Motor to inject $942 mn in China JV for EVs Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Lexus RZ 450e Steers For China Dongfeng SAIC Renault launches sales of first EV in China Nissan expects 40% of sales in China to be electrified by 2026 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weimar Chery Seres Enovate Singulato JAC Motors Iconiq Motors Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia Human Horizons Xiaomi announces plans for four electric vehicle models Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving; the independents all have deals with major OEMs… Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Waymo operates robotaxis NOW GM’s Cruise operates robotaxis NOW Mobileye operates driverless test fleets in Europe and the U.S. Cadillac Super Cruise™ Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Ford’s hands-free “Blue Cruise” Mercedes Launches SAE Level 3 Drive Pilot System Honda Legend Sedan with Level 3 Autonomy Now Available in Japan Motional (Hyundai) & Uber Announce Autonomous Ride-hail and Delivery Services Stellantis Completes Acquisition of aiMotive to Accelerate Autonomous Driving Journey Amazon’s Zoox will test its autonomous vehicles on Seattle’s rainy streets Baidu to further deploy 200 driverless vehicles in China in 2023 Baidu Apollo City Driving Max Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Pony.ai approved for public driverless robotaxi service in Beijing SAIC-backed Xiangdao Chuxing kicks off Robotaxi pilot operation in Shenzhen WeRide greenlighted for autonomous road test with empty driver’s seat in Beijing GAC-backed Ontime greenlighted for pilot operation of Robotaxi service in Guangzhou Xpeng debuts most advanced semi-autonomous driving system to rival Tesla Here’s Where Tesla’s Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells… Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Northvolt Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe GM’s Ultium GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems SK On and Ford form BlueOval SK, an EV battery joint venture Hyundai teams with SK to make batteries for U.S.-built EVs Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and Samsung SDI to Invest Over $2.5B in Battery Production Plant in United States Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Mercedes-Benz and Sila achieve breakthrough with high silicon automotive battery Toyota pledges $2.1bn more for U.S. EV battery plant Toyota to roll out solid-state-battery EVs as soon as 2027 Nissan preps an old engine plant to make solid-state EV batteries Honda and LG Energy Formally Establish Battery Production Joint Venture Honda, GS Yuasa agree to collaborate in lithium-ion batteries Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries Foxconn breaks ground on first EV battery plant Envision-AESC ONE EVE Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Morrow Amprius CALB And Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Storage Batteries… Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions CATL BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Generac GM Energy Canadian Solar Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS Electriq Power Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bollore Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei Toyota ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium Alfen Quino Energy Gotion ZincFive Dragonfly Energy Salgenx Lunar Energy Thanks, Mark Spiegel Stanphyl Capital.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkAug 1st, 2023

Tesla Stock Only Worth $20 Based On GAAP Earnings – Shortseller

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended June 30, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla recently ... Read more Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended June 30, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla recently announced that it will open its U.S. charging stations to cars from multiple other manufacturers which, in turn, will adopt Tesla’s connector and charging protocol. Seeing as many people only buy a Tesla instead of a competing EV in order to access those chargers, and seeing as all the competing charging networks will also adopt this protocol while paying Tesla nothing (Tesla open-sourced it), this will cost Tesla far more in lost auto sale profits than the pennies per share it may gain from charging profits. Thus any increase in Tesla’s stock price that can be attributed to this is as ridiculous as the increase attributed to its “AI” that regularly sends Teslas crashing into other vehicles, people, trees and buildings. Speaking of which… Deadly Safety Problems In late-May documents leaked to German publication Handelsblatt revealed that Tesla has conducted an egregious, multi-year cover-up of deadly safety problems caused by its (so-called) “Autopilot/Full Self-Driving” system and sudden unintended acceleration, and in June the Washington Post wrote a separate expose about Autopilot & FSD’s myriad dangers. I believe this will finally force regulators to demand a massive, multi-billion-dollar recall and, as importantly, destroy whatever goodwill remains towards this sleazily run company (except, of course, from the diminishing number of hardcore cult members who will deservedly go down with the ship). Margin-Slashing Price Cuts Meanwhile, during Q2 Tesla implemented even more worldwide margin-slashing price cuts on top of the massive, margin-destroying cuts it made in Q1. (And those cuts were on top of large cuts made in Q4 2022.) Yet despite all those cuts, Tesla is only expected to deliver only around 5% more cars in Q2 than it did in Q1, and due to the aforementioned price slashing its earnings will likely again be atrocious—despite booking a massive amount of emission credit revenue, in Q1 they were down 23% vs. Q1 2022 and 32% sequentially and Q1 revenue was also down sequentially. And as I believe those earnings are artificially high because Tesla deceptively under-amortizes its factories, we should also look at free cash flow, which in Q1 dropped to just $400 million and may soon be wiped out completely.  In other words, Tesla is no longer a “growth” company unless you define “growth” as declining earnings, declining revenue and declining free cash flow! Most disturbingly for Tesla bulls, despite the massive price cuts vs. Q4 2022, at 1.8 million units the company is only guiding to 11% more delivery volume than Q4’s 405,000 annualized run-rate of 1.62 million (and in June cut shifts & workers from its vastly underutilized new German factory). It’s also only guiding to 2% more production than Q4’s annualized rate of 1.76 million, so where will the “volume savings” to support price cuts come from? And what will Tesla do for its next “growth trick”? Sell cars at a loss? Sell a tiny subcompact beginning in 2025 with an even smaller margin? Meanwhile the incumbent auto companies can better afford (earnings-wise) to slash prices on their EVs, as those prices can be cross-subsidized by their 95% of volume that comes from highly-profitable ICE vehicles, while Tesla now has nothing that’s “highly profitable.” So while Tesla may “win” an EV price war against other pureplay EV makers, it will lose that war against the incumbent OEMs. Goodbye “story-stock tech company” and hello “low-margin, cyclical car company” in an industry with single-digit PE ratios, and for Tesla that could mean as little as 8x $2.50/share in 2023 GAAP earnings = a stock price of $20/share vs. June’s close of $261.77.  (And please don’t lecture me about Tesla’s “energy business,” which in Q1 accounted for just 6.5% of revenue and had just an 11% gross margin and likely nets in the low single digits as it’s an extremely competitive, low-margin industry.) No Product Edge Meanwhile, Tesla has objectively lost its “product edge,” with many competing cars now offering comparable or better real-world range, better interiors, similar or faster charging speeds and much better quality. Tesla ranks near the bottom of both Consumer Reports’ reliability survey and the 2023 JD Power survey: In fact, Tesla is likely now the second, third or fourth choice for many EV buyers, and only maintains its volume lead though a short-lived edge in production capacity that will disappear over the next 12 to 36 months as competitors rapidly increase the ability to produce their superior EVs. Tesla’s poorly-built Model Y faces competition from the much better made (and often just better) electric Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Ford Mustang Mach E, Cadillac Lyriq, Nissan Ariya, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Chevrolet Blazer EV & Equinox EV, Volvo XC-40 Recharge and Polestar 3. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, BMW’s i4, Hyundai’s Ioniq 6 and Volkswagen’s ID.7, as well as multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Porsche Taycan outsells the Model S, while the spectacular new BMW i7, Mercedes EQS and EQE, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make the Tesla look like a fast Yugo, while the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX, Mercedes EQS SUV and Audi Q8 eTron (as well as multiple new Chinese models) do the same to the Model X. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla first previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as by the time it’s in meaningful mass-production in 2024 it will enter a dogfight of a market vs. Ford’s hot-selling all-electric F-150 Lightning and GM’s fantastic 2023 electric Silverado (which already has nearly 200,000 reservations), while Rivian’s pick-up has gotten excellent reviews and Ram will also be out with a great electric truck in 2024. Indeed, for years I’ve said “Tesla is Blackberry” – the maker of a first-generation version of a product that – once the market was proven – would be supplanted into niche obscurity by newer, better versions, and now it’s finally happening. I believe Musk knows this (hence his recent “Twitter buying distraction”), with VW Group, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, BYD & other Chinese competitors and, in a few years, Toyota & Honda, stealing Tesla’s share and pounding its stock price into the low double-digits, where it will be valued as “just another car company.” Recall Of “Full Self Driving” Teslas Meanwhile, the NHTSA has initiated the first of what will likely be multiple recalls of Tesla’s fraudulently named “Full Self Driving” (even before the aforementioned safety cover-up revealed by Handelsblatt), and in January it was revealed that Elon Musk personally directed its fake, fraudulent promotional video (something extremely similar to what Theranos did with its blood machines and Nikola with its truck), and that the DOJ is investigating him for it and so is the SEC. The refund liability potential for Tesla for this is in the billions of dollars, and possibly even the tens of billions if a class action lawsuit proves that the cars involved were purchased solely due to the (fallacious) promise of “full self-driving.” And, of course, there will be a massive “valuation reappraisal” for Tesla’s stock as the world wakes up to the fact that its so-called “autonomy technology” is deadly, trailing-edge garbage that Consumer Reports now ranks just seventh vs. competitors’ systems (behind Ford, GM, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota and Volkswagen) and Guidehouse Insights now rates dead last: Meanwhile, the NHTSA continues to report a slew of Autopilot-related deaths (which, as noted earlier, Tesla has been doing its best to hid), yet Tesla has sold this trashy software for over six years now: …and still promotes it on its website via the aforementioned completely fraudulent video! (For all Tesla-related deaths cited in the media – which is likely only a small fraction of those that have occurred – please see TeslaDeaths.com.) Want to see another Elon Musk/Tesla deception summarized in a simple bar graph? In this recent Consumer Reports test, note which of these cars never comes close—in any environmental conditions—to meeting its claimed EPA range: Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market, even if Tesla makes some of its own,  other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone, and BMW has already announced it will buy them from CATL and EVE. So Here Is Tesla’s Competition In Cars… (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Macan Electric Coming in 2024 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen unveils ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz Electric Van Volkswagen ID.7 VW’s ID.2all compact EV will cost under €25,000 when it arrives in 2025 VW’s Cupra Born Volkswagen Group Will Spend $200 Billion To Boost Its EV Business Audi Q8 e-tron electric SUV Audi e-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron electric SUV Audi A6 E-tron due in early 2024 with saloon, estate and hot RS6 Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV9 large electric SUV Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS Mercedes EQS SUV Mercedes EQE Mercedes EQE SUV Mercedes EQC electric SUV available in Europe & China Mercedes EQV Electric Passenger Van Mercedes EQB Mercedes EQA SUV Ford Mustang Mach-E Ford F-150 Lightning Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford unveils Lincoln Star electric SUV concept as it readies to add four new EVs by 2026 Chevrolet Blazer EV Chevrolet Equinox EV Chevrolet Bolt Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq Cadillac to start making 3 more EVs in 2024 GMC Electric Hummer Pick-Up and SUV GM electric Silverado pickup truck GMC Sierra EV Denali GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services GM & Honda Will Codevelop Affordable EVs Targeting Most Popular Vehicle Segments Two Jeep EVs to make U.S. debuts in 2024 BMW iX2 BMW iX3 BMW iX BMW i4 sedan BMW i7 BMW iX1 Nissan Ariya: All-Electric Crossover SUV Nissan LEAF e+ Nissan aims to electrify 98% of Europe sales, helped by Renault Polestar 2 sedan Polestar 3 electric SUV Volvo EX30 Volvo XC40 Recharge electric SUV Volvo C40 Recharge electric crossover Volvo EX90 electric SUV Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault’s electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises ‘heart-of-the-market SUV’ from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Ram 1500 Revolution Battery-electric Vehicle Unveiled at CES 2023 Chrysler to go all-EV by 2028 Honda, Sony to start premium EV deliveries in 2026 Honda pours $40 billion into electrification, targets 2 million EV production by 2030 Alfa Romeo’s First Electric Car Will Arrive in 2024 Peugeot e-208 Peugeot E-2008 Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Peugeot’s full-electric 3008 and 5008 SUVs will have up to 700 km range Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Rivian electric pickup trucks & SUVs Maserati GranTurismo Debuts As Brand’s First EV With Three Motors, AWD Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota bZ4X Toyota and Lexus Will Launch 10 New EVs By 2026 Opel Corsa-e Opel expands EV lineup with battery-electric Astra Vauxhall Mokka electric Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV Skoda Enyaq electric coupe Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals BYD presents three BEVs for European market Nio expands into Europe and beyond Lucid Motors: Electric Luxury Cars Fisker Ocean Rolls-Royce Electric Spectre, Available 2023 Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Sono Sion Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China… BYD is #1 in Chinese EVs, selling FAR more than Tesla Volkswagen to boost Chinese EV capacity to 1m by 2023 Audi-FAW’s $3.3 billion electric vehicle venture Nio Xpeng Motors Hozon/Neta Li Auto GAC Aion Leap Motors GM plans to launch over 15 EV models in China by 2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E Rolls Off Assembly Line in China Cheaper than Tesla: Honda takes aim at China’s middle class BMW i3 Debuts As All-Electric 3 Series Only For China Hongqi Geely Zeekr Premium EVs by Geely Baidu and Geely put nearly $400 million more into their electric car venture China-made Mercedes-Benz EQE hits market BAIC Hyundai, BAIC Motor to inject $942 mn in China JV for EVs Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Lexus RZ 450e Steers For China Dongfeng SAIC Renault launches sales of first EV in China Nissan expects 40% of sales in China to be electrified by 2026 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weimar Chery Seres Enovate Singulato JAC Motors Iconiq Motors Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia Human Horizons Xiaomi announces plans for four electric vehicle models Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Autonomous Driving; The Independents All Have Deals With Major OEMs… Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Waymo operates robotaxis NOW GM’s Cruise operates robotaxis NOW Mobileye operates driverless test fleets in Europe and the U.S. Cadillac Super Cruise™ Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Ford’s hands-free “Blue Cruise” Mercedes Launches SAE Level 3 Drive Pilot System Honda Legend Sedan with Level 3 Autonomy Now Available in Japan Motional (Hyundai) & Uber Announce Autonomous Ride-hail and Delivery Services Stellantis Completes Acquisition of aiMotive to Accelerate Autonomous Driving Journey Amazon’s Zoox will test its autonomous vehicles on Seattle’s rainy streets Baidu to further deploy 200 driverless vehicles in China in 2023 Baidu Apollo City Driving Max Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Pony.ai approved for public driverless robotaxi service in Beijing SAIC-backed Xiangdao Chuxing kicks off Robotaxi pilot operation in Shenzhen WeRide greenlighted for autonomous road test with empty driver’s seat in Beijing GAC-backed Ontime greenlighted for pilot operation of Robotaxi service in Guangzhou Xpeng debuts most advanced semi-autonomous driving system to rival Tesla Here’s Where Tesla’s Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells… Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Northvolt Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe GM’s Ultium GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems SK On and Ford form BlueOval SK, an EV battery joint venture Hyundai teams with SK to make batteries for U.S.-built EVs Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and Samsung SDI to Invest Over $2.5B in Battery Production Plant in United States Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Mercedes-Benz and Sila achieve breakthrough with high silicon automotive battery Toyota pledges $2.1bn more for U.S. EV battery plant Toyota to roll out solid-state-battery EVs as soon as 2027 Honda and LG Energy Formally Establish Battery Production Joint Venture Honda, GS Yuasa agree to collaborate in lithium-ion batteries Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries Foxconn breaks ground on first EV battery plant Envision-AESC ONE EVE Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Morrow Amprius CALB And Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Storage Batteries… Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions CATL BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Generac GM Energy Canadian Solar Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS Electriq Power Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bollore Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei Toyota ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium Alfen Quino Energy Gotion ZincFive Dragonfly Energy Salgenx Lunar Energy Thanks, Mark Spiegel Stanphyl Capital.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkJul 4th, 2023

Say Hello To Tesla: A Low-Margin, Cyclical Car Company – Shortseller

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended May 31, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). In late-May ... Read more Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended May 31, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). In late-May leaked documents revealed that Tesla has conducted an egregious, multi-year cover-up of deadly safety problems caused by its (so-called) “Autopilot/Full Self-Driving” system, as well as sudden unintended acceleration. I believe this will finally force regulators to demand a massive, multi-billion-dollar recall of both systems and, as importantly, destroy whatever goodwill remains towards this sleazily run company (except, of course, from the diminishing number of hardcore cult members who will deservedly go down with the ship). More Margin-Slashing Price Cuts Meanwhile, Tesla kicked off this quarter with even more worldwide margin-slashing price cuts on top of the massive, margin-destroying cuts it made in Q1. (And those cuts were on top of large cuts made in Q4 2022!) Yet despite all those cuts, Tesla managed to deliver only around 4% more cars in Q1 than it did in the previous quarter (Q4 2022), and due to the aforementioned price slashing its earnings were atrocious—despite booking a massive amount of emission credit revenue, they were down 23% vs. Q1 2022 and 32% sequentially. In fact, without a .15/share foreign currency loss improvement vs. Q4 2022, sequential earnings would have been down 46% (!) and revenue was also down sequentially. And as I believe those earnings are artificially high because Tesla deceptively under-amortizes its factories, we should also look at free cash flow, which dropped to just $400 million.  In other words, Tesla is no longer a “growth” company unless you define “growth” as declining earnings, declining revenue and declining free cash flow! Most disturbingly for Tesla bulls, despite the massive price cuts vs. Q4 2022, at 1.8 million units the company is only guiding to 11% more delivery volume than Q4’s 405,000 annualized run-rate of 1.62 million. It’s also only guiding to 2% more production than Q4’s annualized rate of 1.76 million, so where will the “volume savings” to support price cuts come from? And what will Tesla do for its next “growth trick”? Sell cars at a loss? Sell a tiny subcompact beginning in 2025 with an even smaller margin? Meanwhile the incumbent auto companies can better afford (earnings-wise) to slash prices on their EVs, as those prices can be cross-subsidized by their 95% of volume that comes from highly-profitable ICE vehicles, while Tesla now has nothing that’s “highly profitable.” Here from Automotive News is an excellent example of how OEMs will maintain high overall profitability despite losing money on EVs as they “scale” EV production to Tesla’s cost level: So while Tesla may “win” an EV price war against other pureplay EV makers, it will lose that war against the incumbent OEMs. Goodbye “story-stock tech company” and hello “low-margin, cyclical car company” in an industry with single-digit PE ratios, and for Tesla that could mean as little as 8x $2.50/share in 2023 GAAP earnings = a stock price of $20/share vs. May’s close of $203.93. (And please don’t lecture me about Tesla’s “energy business,” which in Q1 accounted for just 6.5% of revenue and had just an 11% gross margin and likely nets in the low single digits as it’s an extremely competitive, low-margin industry.) No Product Edge Meanwhile, Tesla has objectively lost its “product edge,” with many competing cars now offering comparable or better real-world range, better interiors, similar or faster charging speeds and much better quality. (Tesla ranks near the bottom of Consumer Reports’ reliability survey.) And Tesla is opening its U.S. charging network to everyone (which it already does in much of Europe), eliminating the last reason to buy its now trailing-edge EVs. In fact, Tesla is likely now the second, third or fourth choice for many EV buyers, and only maintains its volume lead though a short-lived edge in production capacity that will disappear over the next 12 to 36 months as competitors rapidly increase the ability to produce their superior EVs. Tesla’s poorly-built Model Y faces competition from the much better made (and often just better) electric Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Ford Mustang Mach E, Cadillac Lyriq, Nissan Ariya, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Chevrolet Blazer EV & Equinox EV, Volvo XC-40 Recharge and Polestar 3. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, BMW’s i4, Hyundai’s Ioniq 6 and Volkswagen’s ID.7, as well as multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Porsche Taycan outsells the Model S, while the spectacular new BMW i7, Mercedes EQS and EQE, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make the Tesla look like a fast Yugo, while the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX, Mercedes EQS SUV and Audi Q8 eTron (as well as multiple new Chinese models) do the same to the Model X. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla first previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as by the time it’s in meaningful mass-production in 2024 it will enter a dogfight of a market vs. Ford’s hot-selling all-electric F-150 Lightning and GM’s fantastic 2023 electric Silverado (which already has nearly 200,000 reservations), while Rivian’s pick-up has gotten excellent reviews and Ram will also be out with a great electric truck in 2024. Tesla is Blackberry Indeed, for years I’ve said “Tesla is Blackberry” – the maker of a first-generation version of a product that—once the market was proven – would be supplanted into niche obscurity by newer, better versions, and now it’s finally happening. I believe Musk knows this (hence his recent “Twitter buying distraction”), with VW Group, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, BYD & other Chinese competitors and, in a few years, Toyota & Honda, stealing Tesla’s share and pounding its stock price into the low double-digits, where it will be valued as “just another car company.” Meanwhile, the NHTSA has initiated the first of what will likely be multiple recalls of Tesla’s fraudulently named “Full Self Driving,” and in January it was revealed that Elon Musk personally directed its fake, fraudulent promotional video (something extremely similar to what Theranos did with its blood machines and Nikola with its truck), and that the DOJ is investigating him for it and so is the SEC. The refund liability potential for Tesla for this is in the billions of dollars, and possibly even the tens of billions if a class action lawsuit proves that the cars involved were purchased solely due to the (fallacious) promise of “full self-driving.” And, of course, there will be a massive “valuation reappraisal” for Tesla’s stock as the world wakes up to the fact that its so-called “autonomy technology” is deadly, trailing-edge garbage that Consumer Reports now ranks just seventh vs. competitors’ systems (behind Ford, GM, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota and Volkswagen) and Guidehouse Insights now rates dead last: Meanwhile, the NHTSA continues to report a slew of Autopilot-related deaths (which, as noted earlier, Tesla has been doing its best to hid), yet Tesla has sold this trashy software for over six years now: …and still promotes it on its website via the aforementioned completely fraudulent video! (For all Tesla-related deaths cited in the media—which is likely only a small fraction of those that have occurred—please see TeslaDeaths.com.) Want to see another Elon Musk/Tesla deception summarized in a simple bar graph? In this recent Consumer Reports test, note which of these cars never comes close—in any environmental conditions—to meeting its claimed EPA range: Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market, even if Tesla makes some of its own,  other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone, and BMW has already announced it will buy them from CATL and EVE. So Here Is Tesla’s Competition In Cars… (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Macan Electric Coming in 2024 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen unveils ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz Electric Van Volkswagen ID.7 VW’s ID.2all compact EV will cost under €25,000 when it arrives in 2025 VW’s Cupra Born Volkswagen Group Will Spend $200 Billion To Boost Its EV Business Audi Q8 e-tron electric SUV Audi e-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron electric SUV Audi A6 E-tron due in early 2024 with saloon, estate and hot RS6 Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV9 large electric SUV Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS Mercedes EQS SUV Mercedes EQE Mercedes EQE SUV Mercedes EQC electric SUV available in Europe & China Mercedes EQV Electric Passenger Van Mercedes EQB Mercedes EQA SUV Ford Mustang Mach-E Ford F-150 Lightning Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford unveils Lincoln Star electric SUV concept as it readies to add four new EVs by 2026 Chevrolet Blazer EV Chevrolet Equinox EV Chevrolet Bolt Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq Cadillac to start making 3 more EVs in 2024 GMC Electric Hummer Pick-Up and SUV GM electric Silverado pickup truck GMC Sierra EV Denali GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services GM & Honda Will Codevelop Affordable EVs Targeting Most Popular Vehicle Segments Two Jeep EVs to make U.S. debuts in 2024 BMW iX2 BMW iX3 BMW iX BMW i4 sedan BMW i7 BMW iX1 Nissan Ariya: All-Electric Crossover SUV Nissan LEAF e+ Nissan aims to electrify 98% of Europe sales, helped by Renault Polestar 2 sedan Polestar 3 electric SUV Volvo XC40 Recharge electric SUV Volvo C40 Recharge electric crossover Volvo EX90 electric SUV Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault’s electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises ‘heart-of-the-market SUV’ from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Ram 1500 Revolution Battery-electric Vehicle Unveiled at CES 2023 Chrysler to go all-EV by 2028 Honda, Sony to start premium EV deliveries in 2026 Honda pours $40 billion into electrification, targets 2 million EV production by 2030 Alfa Romeo’s First Electric Car Will Arrive in 2024 Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Peugeot’s full-electric 3008 and 5008 SUVs will have up to 700 km range Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Rivian electric pickup trucks & SUVs Maserati GranTurismo Debuts As Brand’s First EV With Three Motors, AWD Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota bZ4X Toyota and Lexus Will Launch 10 New EVs By 2026 Opel Corsa-e Opel expands EV lineup with battery-electric Astra Vauxhall Mokka electric Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV Skoda Enyaq electric coupe Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals BYD presents three BEVs for European market Nio expands into Europe and beyond Lucid Motors: Electric Luxury Cars Fisker Ocean Rolls-Royce Electric Spectre, Available 2023 Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Sono Sion Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China… BYD is #1 in Chinese EVs, selling FAR more than Tesla Volkswagen to boost Chinese EV capacity to 1m by 2023 Audi-FAW’s $3.3 billion electric vehicle venture Nio Xpeng Motors Hozon/Neta Li Auto GAC Aion Leap Motors GM plans to launch over 15 EV models in China by 2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E Rolls Off Assembly Line in China Cheaper than Tesla: Honda takes aim at China’s middle class BMW i3 Debuts As All-Electric 3 Series Only For China Hongqi Geely Zeekr Premium EVs by Geely Baidu and Geely put nearly $400 million more into their electric car venture China-made Mercedes-Benz EQE hits market BAIC Hyundai, BAIC Motor to inject $942 mn in China JV for EVs Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Lexus RZ 450e Steers For China Dongfeng SAIC Renault launches sales of first EV in China Nissan expects 40% of sales in China to be electrified by 2026 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weimar Chery Seres Enovate Singulato JAC Motors Iconiq Motors Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia Human Horizons Xiaomi announces plans for four electric vehicle models Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Autonomous Driving; The Independents All Have Deals With Major OEMs… Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Waymo operates robotaxis NOW GM’s Cruise operates robotaxis NOW Mobileye operates driverless test fleets in Europe and the U.S. Cadillac Super Cruise™ Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Ford’s hands-free “Blue Cruise” Mercedes Launches SAE Level 3 Drive Pilot System Honda Legend Sedan with Level 3 Autonomy Now Available in Japan Motional (Hyundai) & Uber Announce Autonomous Ride-hail and Delivery Services Stellantis Completes Acquisition of aiMotive to Accelerate Autonomous Driving Journey Amazon’s Zoox will test its autonomous vehicles on Seattle’s rainy streets Baidu to further deploy 200 driverless vehicles in China in 2023 Baidu Apollo City Driving Max Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Pony.ai approved for public driverless robotaxi service in Beijing SAIC-backed Xiangdao Chuxing kicks off Robotaxi pilot operation in Shenzhen WeRide greenlighted for autonomous road test with empty driver’s seat in Beijing GAC-backed Ontime greenlighted for pilot operation of Robotaxi service in Guangzhou Here’s Where Tesla’s Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells… Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Northvolt Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe GM’s Ultium GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems SK On and Ford form BlueOval SK, an EV battery joint venture Hyundai teams with SK to make batteries for U.S.-built EVs Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and Samsung SDI to Invest Over $2.5B in Battery Production Plant in United States Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Mercedes-Benz and Sila achieve breakthrough with high silicon automotive battery Toyota pledges $2.1bn more for U.S. EV battery plant Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Honda and LG Energy Formally Establish Battery Production Joint Venture Honda, GS Yuasa agree to collaborate in lithium-ion batteries Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries Foxconn breaks ground on first EV battery plant Envision-AESC ONE EVE Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Morrow Amprius CALB Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Charging Networks… Tesla will open charging network to other EVs Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America EVgo Chargepoint Walmart Enel EU reaches deal to roll out charging points across bloc Ionity Europe Shell 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM, EVgo, and Pilot will install 2,000 fast chargers at travel centers GM targeting 40,000 chargers across the U.S. and Canada in partnership with its dealerships Mercedes will build its own EV charging network Ford To Have One Of The Largest DC Fast-Charging Networks In USVolkswagen powers up the grid to take on Tesla Volkswagen-backed CAMS eyes deployment of 17,000 charging points in China by 2025 Circle K begins North American EV fast charger rollout, plans 200-site network by 2024 Rivian will open its growing EV charging network to the public Porsche to build out its own network of EV charging stations Petro-Canada Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta E.On BP Volkswagen and BP partner to deploy up to 8,000 EV chargers across EU/UK Smatric Allego Podpoint Instavolt Fastned Total Nio Battery Swap Stations BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales Evie Tritium, DC-America Join Forces to Provide coast-to-coast EV charging network And Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Storage Batteries… Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions CATL BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Generac GM Energy Canadian Solar Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS Electriq Power Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bollore Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei Toyota ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium Alfen Quino Energy Gotion ZincFive Dragonfly Energy Salgenx Thanks, Mark Spiegel Stanphyl Capital.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkJun 1st, 2023

Tesla Starts Q2 With More Worldwide Margin-Slashing Price Cuts: Shortseller

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended April 30, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Price Cuts ... Read more Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended April 30, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Price Cuts Tesla kicked off April (and thus Q2) with even more worldwide margin-slashing price cuts (for the fifth and sixth time so far this year in the U.S!) on top of the massive, margin-destroying cuts it made in both January and March. (And those cuts were on top of large cuts made in Q4 2022!) Yet despite all those cuts, Tesla managed to deliver only around 4% more cars in Q1 2023 than it did in the previous quarter (Q4 2022), and due to the aforementioned price slashing its earnings were atrocious—despite booking a massive amount of emission credit revenue, they were down 23% vs. Q1 2022 and 32% sequentially. In fact, without a .15/share foreign currency loss improvement vs. Q4 2022, sequential earnings would have been down 46% (!) and revenue was also down sequentially. And as I believe those earnings are artificially high because Tesla deceptively under-amortizes its factories, we should also look at free cash flow, which dropped to just $400 million! In other words, Tesla is no longer a “growth” company unless you define “growth” as declining earnings, declining revenue and declining free cash flow. Most disturbingly for Tesla bulls, despite the massive price cuts vs. Q4 2022, at 1.8 million units the company is only guiding to 11% more delivery volume than Q4’s 405,000 annualized run-rate of 1.62 million. It’s also only guiding to 2% more production than Q4’s annualized rate of 1.76 million, so where will the “volume savings” to support price cuts come from? And what will Tesla do for its next “growth trick”? Sell cars at a loss? Sell a tiny subcompact beginning in 2025 with an even smaller margin? Meanwhile the incumbent auto companies can better afford (earnings-wise) to slash prices on their EVs, as those prices can be cross-subsidized by their 95% of volume that comes from highly-profitable ICE vehicles, while Tesla now has nothing that’s “highly profitable.” Here from Automotive News is an excellent example of how OEMs will maintain high overall profitability despite losing money on EVs as they “scale” EV production to Tesla’s cost level: So while Tesla may “win” an EV price war against other pureplay EV makers, it will lose that war against the incumbent OEMs. Goodbye “story-stock tech company” and hello “low-margin, cyclical car company” in an industry with single-digit PE ratios, and for Tesla that could mean as little as 8x $2.50/share in 2023 GAAP earnings = a stock price of $20/share vs. April’s close of $164.31. (And please don’t lecture me about Tesla’s “energy business,” which in Q1 accounted for just 6.5% of revenue and had just an 11% gross margin and likely nets in the low single digits as it’s an extremely competitive, low-margin industry.) Product Edge Meanwhile, Tesla has objectively lost its “product edge,” with many competing cars now offering comparable or better real-world range, better interiors, similar or faster charging speeds and much better quality. (Tesla ranks near the bottom of Consumer Reports’ reliability survey.) And Tesla is opening its U.S. charging network to everyone (which it already does in much of Europe), eliminating the last reason to buy its now trailing-edge EVs. In fact, Tesla is likely now the second, third or fourth choice for many EV buyers, and only maintains its volume lead though a short-lived edge in production capacity that will disappear over the next 12 to 36 months as competitors rapidly increase the ability to produce their superior EVs. Tesla’s poorly-built Model Y faces competition from the much better made (and often just better) electric Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Ford Mustang Mach E, Cadillac Lyriq, Nissan Ariya, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Chevrolet Blazer EV & Equinox EV and Polestar 3. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, the great new BMW i4, the Hyundai Ioniq 6 and upcoming Volkswagen ID.7, and multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Porsche Taycan outsells the Model S, while the spectacular new BMW i7, Mercedes EQS and EQE, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make the Tesla look like a fast Yugo, while the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX, Mercedes EQS SUV and Audi Q8 eTron (as well as multiple new Chinese models) do the same to the Model X. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla first previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as by the time it’s in meaningful mass-production in 2024 it will enter a dogfight of a market vs. Ford’s hot-selling all-electric F-150 Lightning and GM’s fantastic 2023 electric Silverado (which already has nearly 200,000 reservations), while Rivian’s pick-up has gotten excellent reviews and Ram will also be out with a great electric truck in 2024. Tesla Is Blackberry Indeed, for years I’ve said “Tesla is Blackberry”—the maker of a first-generation version of a product that—once the market was proven—would be supplanted into niche obscurity by newer, better versions, and now it’s finally happening. I believe Musk knows this (hence his recent “Twitter buying distraction”), with VW Group, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, BYD & other Chinese competitors and, in a few years, Toyota & Honda, stealing Tesla’s share and pounding its stock price into the low double-digits, where it will be valued as “just another car company.” Meanwhile, the NHTSA has initiated the first of what will likely be multiple recalls of Tesla’s fraudulently named “Full Self Driving,” and in January it was revealed that Elon Musk personally directed its fake, fraudulent promotional video (something extremely similar to what Theranos did with its blood machines and Nikola with its truck), and that the DOJ is investigating him for it and so is the SEC. The refund liability potential for Tesla for this is in the billions of dollars, and possibly even the tens of billions if a class action lawsuit proves that the cars involved were purchased solely due to the (fallacious) promise of “full self-driving.” And, of course, there will be a massive “valuation reappraisal” for Tesla’s stock as the world wakes up to the fact that its so-called “autonomy technology” is deadly, trailing-edge garbage that Consumer Reports now ranks just seventh vs. competitors’ systems (behind Ford, GM, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota and Volkswagen) and Guidehouse Insights now rates dead last: Meanwhile, the NHTSA continues to report a slew of Autopilot-related deaths, yet Tesla has sold this trashy software for over six years now: …and still promotes it on its website via the aforementioned completely fraudulent video! (For all Tesla-related deaths cited in the media—which is likely only a small fraction of those that have occurred—please see TeslaDeaths.com.) Want to see another Elon Musk/Tesla deception summarized in a simple bar graph? In this recent Consumer Reports test, note which of these cars never comes close—in any environmental conditions—to meeting its claimed EPA range: Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market, even if Tesla makes some of its own, other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone, and BMW has already announced it will buy them from CATL and EVE. So Here Is Tesla’s Competition In Cars… (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Macan Electric Coming in 2024 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen unveils ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz Electric Van Volkswagen ID.7 Luxury Sedan VW’s ID.2all compact EV will cost under €25,000 when it arrives in 2025 VW’s Cupra Born Volkswagen Group Will Spend $200 Billion To Boost Its EV Business Audi Q8 e-tron electric SUV Audi e-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron electric SUV Audi A6 E-tron due in early 2024 with saloon, estate and hot RS6 Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV9 large electric SUV Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS Mercedes EQS SUV Mercedes EQE Mercedes EQE SUV Mercedes EQC electric SUV available in Europe & China Mercedes EQV Electric Passenger Van Mercedes EQB Mercedes EQA SUV Ford Mustang Mach-E Ford F-150 Lightning Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford unveils Lincoln Star electric SUV concept as it readies to add four new EVs by 2026 Chevrolet Blazer EV Chevrolet Equinox EV Chevrolet Bolt Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq Cadillac to start making 3 more EVs in 2024 GMC Electric Hummer Pick-Up and SUV GM electric Silverado pickup truck GMC Sierra EV Denali GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services GM & Honda Will Codevelop Affordable EVs Targeting Most Popular Vehicle Segments Two Jeep EVs to make U.S. debuts in 2024 BMW iX2 BMW iX3 BMW iX BMW i4 sedan BMW i7 BMW iX1 Nissan Ariya: All-Electric Crossover SUV Nissan LEAF e+ Nissan aims to electrify 98% of Europe sales, helped by Renault Polestar 2 sedan Polestar 3 electric SUV Volvo XC40 Recharge electric SUV Volvo C40 Recharge electric crossover Volvo EX90 electric SUV Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault’s electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises ‘heart-of-the-market SUV’ from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Ram 1500 Revolution Battery-electric Vehicle Unveiled at CES 2023 Chrysler to go all-EV by 2028 Honda, Sony to start premium EV deliveries in 2026 Honda pours $40 billion into electrification, targets 2 million EV production by 2030 Alfa Romeo’s First Electric Car Will Arrive in 2024 Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Peugeot’s full-electric 3008 and 5008 SUVs will have up to 700 km range Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Rivian electric pickup trucks & SUVs Maserati GranTurismo Debuts As Brand’s First EV With Three Motors, AWD Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota bZ4X Toyota and Lexus Will Launch 10 New EVs By 2026 Opel Corsa-e Opel expands EV lineup with battery-electric Astra Vauxhall Mokka electric Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV Skoda Enyaq electric coupe Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals BYD presents three BEVs for European market Nio expands into Europe and beyond Lucid Motors: Electric Luxury Cars Fisker Ocean Rolls-Royce Electric Spectre, Available 2023 Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Sono Sion Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China… BYD is #1 in Chinese EVs, selling FAR more than Tesla Volkswagen to boost Chinese EV capacity to 1m by 2023 Audi-FAW’s $3.3 billion electric vehicle venture Nio Xpeng Motors Hozon/Neta Li Auto GAC Aion Leap Motors GM plans to launch over 15 EV models in China by 2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E Rolls Off Assembly Line in China Cheaper than Tesla: Honda takes aim at China’s middle class BMW i3 Debuts As All-Electric 3 Series Only For China Hongqi Geely Zeekr Premium EVs by Geely Baidu and Geely put nearly $400 million more into their electric car venture China-made Mercedes-Benz EQE hits market BAIC Hyundai, BAIC Motor to inject $942 mn in China JV for EVs Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Lexus RZ 450e Steers For China Dongfeng SAIC Renault launches sales of first EV in China Nissan expects 40% of sales in China to be electrified by 2026 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weimar Chery Seres Enovate Singulato JAC Motors Iconiq Motors Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia Human Horizons Xiaomi announces plans for four electric vehicle models Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Autonomous Driving; The Independents All Have Deals With Major OEMs… Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Waymo operates robotaxis NOW GM’s Cruise operates robotaxis NOW Mobileye operates driverless test fleets in Europe and the U.S. Cadillac Super Cruise™ Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Ford’s hands-free “Blue Cruise” Mercedes Launches SAE Level 3 Drive Pilot System Honda Legend Sedan with Level 3 Autonomy Now Available in Japan Motional (Hyundai) & Uber Announce Autonomous Ride-hail and Delivery Services Stellantis Completes Acquisition of aiMotive to Accelerate Autonomous Driving Journey Amazon’s Zoox will test its autonomous vehicles on Seattle’s rainy streets Baidu to further deploy 200 driverless vehicles in China in 2023 Baidu Apollo City Driving Max Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Pony.ai approved for public driverless robotaxi service in Beijing SAIC-backed Xiangdao Chuxing kicks off Robotaxi pilot operation in Shenzhen WeRide greenlighted for autonomous road test with empty driver’s seat in Beijing GAC-backed Ontime greenlighted for pilot operation of Robotaxi service in Guangzhou Here’s Where Tesla’s Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells… Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Northvolt Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe GM’s Ultium GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems SK On and Ford form BlueOval SK, an EV battery joint venture Hyundai teams with SK to make batteries for U.S.-built EVs Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and Samsung SDI to Invest Over $2.5B in Battery Production Plant in United States Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Mercedes-Benz and Sila achieve breakthrough with high silicon automotive battery Toyota to invest $5.3bn to make EV batteries in U.S. and Japan Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Honda and LG Energy Formally Establish Battery Production Joint Venture Honda, GS Yuasa agree to collaborate in lithium-ion batteries Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries Foxconn breaks ground on first EV battery plant Envision-AESC ONE EVE Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Morrow Amprius CALB Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Charging Networks… Tesla will open charging network to other EVs Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America EVgo Chargepoint Walmart Enel EU reaches deal to roll out charging points across bloc Ionity Europe Shell 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM, EVgo, and Pilot will install 2,000 fast chargers at travel centers GM targeting 40,000 chargers across the U.S. and Canada in partnership with its dealerships Mercedes will build its own EV charging network Ford To Have One Of The Largest DC Fast-Charging Networks In US Volkswagen powers up the grid to take on Tesla Volkswagen-backed CAMS eyes deployment of 17,000 charging points in China by 2025 Circle K begins North American EV fast charger rollout, plans 200-site network by 2024 Rivian will open its growing EV charging network to the public Porsche to build out its own network of EV charging stations Petro-Canada Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta E.On BP Volkswagen and BP partner to deploy up to 8,000 EV chargers across EU/UK Smatric Allego Podpoint Instavolt Fastned Total Nio Battery Swap Stations BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales Evie Tritium, DC-America Join Forces to Provide coast-to-coast EV charging network And Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Storage Batteries… Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions CATL BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Generac GM Energy Canadian Solar Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS Electriq Power Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bollore Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei Toyota ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium Alfen Quino Energy Gotion ZincFive Dragonfly Energy Thanks, Mark Spiegel Stanphyl Capital.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkMay 1st, 2023

Tesla May Lose The War Against The Incumbent OEMs – Shortseller

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended March 31, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla kicked ... Read more Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended March 31, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla kicked off 2023 with massive, margin-destroying January price cuts worldwide (on top of large cuts in Q4 2022) and then cut them again in March (on the Models 3&Y in Europe and the S&X in the U.S.). And while this will undoubtedly generate more unit deliveries (perhaps in the 430,000s in Q1 vs. 405,000 in Q4 2022), due to the price slashing 2023’s earnings will be at least 25% lower than 2022’s. In other words, Tesla is no longer a “growth” company unless you define “growth” as declining earnings! if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get Our Activist Investing Case Study! Get the entire 10-part series on our in-depth study on activist investing in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or print it out to read anywhere! Sign up below! (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Most disturbingly for Tesla bulls, despite the massive price cuts vs. Q4 2022, at 1.8 million units the company is only guiding to 11% more delivery volume vs. Q4’s 405,000 annualized run-rate of 1.62 million. It’s also only guiding to 2% more production than Q4’s annualized rate of 1.76 million, so where will the “volume savings” to support price cuts come from? And what will Tesla do for its next “growth trick”? Sell cars at a loss? Sell a tiny subcompact beginning in 2025 with an even smaller margin? Meanwhile the incumbent auto companies can better afford (earnings-wise) to slash prices on their EVs, as those prices can be cross-subsidized by their 95% of volume that comes from highly-profitable ICE vehicles, while Tesla now has nothing that’s “highly profitable.” Here from Automotive News is an excellent example of how OEMs will maintain high overall profitability despite losing money on EVs as they “scale” EV production to Tesla’s cost level: So while Tesla may “win” an EV price war against other pureplay EV makers, it will lose that war against the incumbent OEMs. Goodbye “story-stock tech company” and hello “low-margin, cyclical car company” in an industry with single-digit PE ratios. And for Tesla that could mean as little as 8x $2.80/share in 2023 GAAP earnings = a stock price of $22/share vs. March’s close of $207.46.  (And please don’t lecture me about Tesla’s “battery business,” which nets almost nothing and is in an extremely competitive, low-margin industry for every participant.) Meanwhile, Tesla has objectively lost its “product edge,” with many competing cars now offering comparable or better real-world range, better interiors, similar or faster charging speeds and much better quality. (Tesla ranks near the bottom of Consumer Reports’ reliability survey.) And Tesla is opening its U.S. charging network to everyone (which it already does in much of Europe), eliminating the last reason to buy its now trailing-edge EVs. In fact, Tesla is likely now the second, third or fourth choice for many EV buyers, and only maintains its volume lead though a short-lived edge in production capacitythat will disappear over the next 12 to 36 months as competitors rapidly increase the ability to produce their superior EVs. Tesla’s poorly-built Model Y faces competition from the much better made (and often just better)electric Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Ford Mustang Mach E, Cadillac Lyriq, Nissan Ariya, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Chevrolet Blazer EV & Equinox EV and Polestar 3. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, the great new BMW i4, the Hyundai Ioniq 6 and upcoming Volkswagen ID.7, and multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Porsche Taycan (the base model of which is less expensive than Tesla’s Model S) outsells the Model S, while the spectacular new BMW i7, Mercedes EQS and EQE, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make it look like a fast Yugo, and the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX, Mercedes EQS SUV and Audi Q8 eTron (as well as multiple new Chinese models) do the same to the Model X. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla first previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as by the time it’s in meaningful mass-production in 2024 it will enter a dogfight of a market vs. Ford’s hot-selling all-electric F-150 Lightning and GM’s fantastic 2023 electric Silverado (which already has nearly 200,000 reservations), while Rivian’s pick-up has gotten excellent reviews and Ram will also be out with a great electric truck in Q4 ‘24. Tesla is Netflix Indeed, for years I’ve said “Tesla is Blackberry”—the maker of a first-generation version of a product that—once the market was proven—would be supplanted into niche obscurity by newer, better versions; now I can provide a much more recent analogy: Tesla is Netflix. For years Netflix had an absurd valuation based on its pioneering position in streaming media, but once it proved that such a market existed myriad competitors swarmed all over it, and in 2022 the stock collapsed. I believe Musk knows that Tesla is “the next Netflix” (hence his recent “Twitter buying distraction”), with VW Group, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, BYD & other Chinese competitors. And, in a few years, Toyota & Honda, being the Disney, HBO Max, Amazon Prime, Peacock, Hulu, Paramount+, etc. of the electric car market, stealing Tesla’s share and eventually pounding its stock price into low double-digits, where it would be valued as “just another car company.” Meanwhile, the NHTSA has initiated the first of what will likely be multiple recalls of Tesla’s fraudulently named “Full Self Driving,” and in January it was revealed that Elon Musk personally directed its fake, fraudulent promotional video (something extremely similar to what Theranos did with its blood machines and Nikola with its truck), and that the DOJ is investigating him for it and so is the SEC. The refund liability potential for Tesla for this is in the billions of dollars, and possibly even the tens of billions if a class action lawsuit proves that the cars involved were purchased solely due to the (fallacious) promise of “full self-driving.” And, of course, there will be a massive “valuation reappraisal” for Tesla’s stock as the world wakes up to the fact that its so-called “autonomy technology” is deadly, trailing-edge garbage that Consumer Reports now ranks just seventh vs. competitors’ systems (behind Ford, GM, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota and Volkswagen) and Guidehouse Insights now rates dead last: Meanwhile, the NHTSA continues to report a slew of Autopilot-related deaths, yet Tesla has sold this trashy software for over six years now: …and still promotes it on its website via the aforementioned completely fraudulent video! (For all Tesla-related deaths cited in the media—which is likely only a small fraction of those that have occurred—please see TeslaDeaths.com.) Want to see another Elon Musk/Tesla fraud summarized in a simple bar graph? In this recent Consumer Reports test, note which of these cars never comes close—in any environmental conditions—to meeting its claimed EPA range: Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market, even if Tesla makes some of its own,  other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone, and BMW has already announced it will buy them from CATL and EVE. Regarding safety, as noted earlier in this letter, Tesla continues to deceptively sell its hugely dangerous so-called “Autopilot” system; God only knows how many more people this monstrosity unleashed on public roads will kill. Elsewhere in safety, the Chinese government forced the recall of tens of thousands of Teslas for a dangerous suspension defect the company spent years trying to cover up, and Tesla has been hit by a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. for the same defect. Tesla also knowingly sold cars that it knew were a fire hazard and did the same with solar systems, and after initially refusing to do so voluntarily, it was forced to recall a dangerously defective touchscreen. In other words, when it comes to the safety of customers and innocent bystanders, Tesla is truly one of the most vile companies on Earth. Meanwhile the massive number of lawsuits of all types against the company continues to escalate. So Here Is Tesla’s Competition In Cars… (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Macan Electric Coming in 2024 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen unveils ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz Electric Van Volkswagen ID.7 Luxury Sedan VW's ID.2all compact EV will cost under €25,000 when it arrives in 2025 VW’s Cupra Born Volkswagen Group Will Spend $200 Billion To Boost Its EV Business Audi Q8 e-tron electric SUV Audi e-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron electric SUV Audi A6 E-tron due in early 2024 with saloon, estate and hot RS6 Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV9 large electric SUV Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS Mercedes EQS SUV Mercedes EQE Mercedes EQE SUV Mercedes EQC electric SUV available in Europe & China Mercedes EQV Electric Passenger Van Mercedes EQB Mercedes EQA SUV Ford Mustang Mach-E Ford F-150 Lightning Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford unveils Lincoln Star electric SUV concept as it readies to add four new EVs by 2026 Chevrolet Blazer EV Chevrolet Equinox EV Chevrolet Bolt Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq Cadillac to start making 3 more EVs in 2024 GMC Electric Hummer Pick-Up and SUV GM electric Silverado pickup truck GMC Sierra EV Denali GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services GM & Honda Will Codevelop Affordable EVs Targeting Most Popular Vehicle Segments Two Jeep EVs to make U.S. debuts in 2024 BMW iX2 BMW iX3 BMW iX BMW i4 sedan BMW i7 BMW iX1 Nissan Ariya: All-Electric Crossover SUV Nissan LEAF e+ Nissan aims to electrify 98% of Europe sales, helped by Renault Polestar 2 sedan Polestar 3 electric SUV Volvo XC40 Recharge electric SUV Volvo C40 Recharge electric crossover Volvo EX90 electric SUV Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises 'heart-of-the-market SUV' from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Ram 1500 Revolution Battery-electric Vehicle Unveiled at CES 2023 Chrysler to go all-EV by 2028 Honda, Sony to start premium EV deliveries in 2026 Honda pours $40 billion into electrification, targets 2 million EV production by 2030 Alfa Romeo's First Electric Car Will Arrive in 2024 Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Peugeot's full-electric 3008 and 5008 SUVs will have up to 700 km range Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Rivian electric pickup trucks & SUVs Maserati GranTurismo Debuts As Brand’s First EV With Three Motors, AWD Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota bZ4X Toyota will have lineup of 30 full EVs by 2030; Lexus will be all-electric brand Opel Corsa-e Opel expands EV lineup with battery-electric Astra Vauxhall Mokka electric Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV Skoda Enyaq electric coupe Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals BYD presents three BEVs for European market Nio expands into Europe and beyond Lucid Motors: Electric Luxury Cars Fisker Ocean Rolls-Royce Electric Spectre, Available 2023 Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Sono Sion Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China, Where Tesla’s EV Market Share Is Now Declining… BYD is #1 in Chinese EVs, selling FAR more than Tesla Volkswagen to boost Chinese EV capacity to 1m by 2023 Audi-FAW's $3.3 billion electric vehicle venture Nio Xpeng Motors Hozon/Neta Li Auto GAC Aion Leap Motors GM plans to launch over 15 EV models in China by 2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E Rolls Off Assembly Line in China Cheaper than Tesla: Honda takes aim at China's middle class BMW i3 Debuts As All-Electric 3 Series Only For China Hongqi Geely Zeekr Premium EVs by Geely Baidu and Geely put nearly $400 million more into their electric car venture China-made Mercedes-Benz EQE hits market BAIC Hyundai, BAIC Motor to inject $942 mn in China JV for EVs Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Lexus RZ 450e Steers For China Dongfeng SAIC Renault launches sales of first EV in China Nissan expects 40% of sales in China to be electrified by 2026 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weimar Chery Seres Enovate Singulato JAC Motors Iconiq Motors Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia Human Horizons Xiaomi announces plans for four electric vehicle models Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Autonomous Driving; The Independents All Have Deals With Major OEMs… Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Waymo operates robotaxis NOW GM’s Cruise operates robotaxis NOW Mobileye operates driverless test fleets in Europe and the U.S. Cadillac Super Cruise™ Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Ford’s hands-free “Blue Cruise” Mercedes Launches SAE Level 3 Drive Pilot System Honda Legend Sedan with Level 3 Autonomy Now Available in Japan Motional (Hyundai) & Uber Announce Autonomous Ride-hail and Delivery Services Stellantis Completes Acquisition of aiMotive to Accelerate Autonomous Driving Journey Amazon’s Zoox will test its autonomous vehicles on Seattle’s rainy streets Baidu to further deploy 200 driverless vehicles in China in 2023 Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Pony.ai approved for public driverless robotaxi service in Beijing SAIC-backed Xiangdao Chuxing kicks off Robotaxi pilot operation in Shenzhen WeRide greenlighted for autonomous road test with empty driver’s seat in Beijing Here’s Where Tesla’s Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells… Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Northvolt Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe GM’s Ultium GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems SK On and Ford form BlueOval SK, an EV battery joint venture Hyundai teams with SK to make batteries for U.S.-built EVs Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and Samsung SDI to Invest Over $2.5B in Battery Production Plant in United States Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Mercedes-Benz and Sila achieve breakthrough with high silicon automotive battery Toyota to invest $5.3bn to make EV batteries in U.S. and Japan Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Honda and LG Energy Formally Establish Battery Production Joint Venture Honda, GS Yuasa agree to collaborate in lithium-ion batteries Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries Foxconn breaks ground on first EV battery plant Envision-AESC ONE EVE Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Morrow Amprius CALB Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Charging Networks… Tesla will open charging network to other EVs Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America EVgo Chargepoint EU reaches deal to roll out charging points across bloc Ionity Europe Shell 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM, EVgo, and Pilot will install 2,000 fast chargers at travel centers GM to Expand Access to EV Charging with More than 40,000 Charging Stations Mercedes will build its own EV charging network Ford To Have One Of The Largest DC Fast-Charging Networks In USVolkswagen powers up the grid to take on Tesla Volkswagen-backed CAMS eyes deployment of 17,000 charging points in China by 2025 Circle K begins North American EV fast charger rollout, plans 200-site network by 2024 Porsche to build out its own network of EV charging stations Petro-Canada Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta E.On BP Volkswagen and BP partner to deploy up to 8,000 EV chargers across EU/UK Smatric Allego Podpoint Instavolt Fastned Total Nio Battery Swap Stations BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales Evie Tritium, DC-America Join Forces to Provide coast-to-coast EV charging network And Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Storage Batteries… Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions CATL BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Generac GM Energy Canadian Solar Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS Electriq Power Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bollore Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei Toyota ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium Alfen Quino Energy Gotion ZincFive Dragonfly Energy Thanks, Mark Spiegel Stanphyl Capital.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkApr 3rd, 2023

Tesla Will Be Lucky To Earn $3 Per Share In 2023 Due To Price Cuts – Shortseller

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended February 28, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Massive Price Cuts Tesla kicked off 2023 with massive, margin-destroying price cuts worldwide (on top of large cuts in Q4 2022), and while this should generate more unit deliveries (although so far not in China), 2023’s roughly […] Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended February 28, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Massive Price Cuts Tesla kicked off 2023 with massive, margin-destroying price cuts worldwide (on top of large cuts in Q4 2022), and while this should generate more unit deliveries (although so far not in China), 2023’s roughly 11% ASP cut vs. Q4 2022, combined with 2023 production (and, we’ll generously assume, delivery) guidance of 1.8 million cars mean 2023’s earnings will be at least 25% lower than Q4 2022’s earnings annualized, and perhaps as much as 40% lower. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   (In other words, for the full year 2023 Tesla will be lucky to earn $3/share.) Thus, Tesla is no longer a “growth” company unless you define “growth” as declining earnings. Most disturbingly for Tesla bulls, despite those 11% average price cuts vs. Q4, at 1.8 million units the company is only guiding to 11% more delivery volume vs. Q4’s 405,000 annualized run-rate of 1.62 million. It’s also only guiding to 2% more production than Q4’s annualized rate of 1.76 million, so where will the “volume savings” to support price cuts come from? And what will Tesla do for its next “growth trick”? Sell cars at a loss? Sell a tiny subcompact beginning in 2025 with a similarly tiny profit margin? As Tesla slashes prices it will undoubtedly sell more cars, but the incumbent auto companies can do the same thing on their EVs, and their EV pricing can be cross-subsidized by their 95% of volume that comes from highly-profitable ICE vehicles while Tesla now has nothing that’s “highly profitable.” So while Tesla may “win” an EV price war against other pureplay EV makers, it will lose that war against the incumbent OEMs. Goodbye “story-stock tech company” and hello “low-margin, cyclical car company” in an industry with single-digit PE ratios, and for Tesla that means 6x $3/share in 2023 earnings = a stock price of $18/share vs. February’s close of $205.71. (And please don’t lecture me about Tesla’s “battery business,” which nets almost nothing and is in an extremely competitive, low-margin industry for every participant.) (By the way, in calculating $3/share in 2023 Tesla earnings I generously assume that those earnings will include some combination of quarterly environmental credits equal to Q4’s obscene $467 million, with emission credit sales gradually being replaced by various new battery production and alternative fuel-derived credits. I also generously credit Tesla for the full $324 million in quarterly so-called “Full Self-Driving” profit it recognized in Q4, even though this is a fraudulently named product that’s in the process of being recalled by the NHTSA, thereby presenting Tesla with a massive multi-billion-dollar liability.) Loss Of Product Edge Meanwhile, Tesla has objectively lost its “product edge,” with many competing cars now offering comparable or better real-world range, better interiors, similar or faster charging speeds and much better quality. (Tesla ranks near the bottom of Consumer Reports’ reliability survey while British consumer organization Which? found it to be one of the least reliable cars in existence.) Thus, due to competitors’ temporary production constraints, waiting times are now longer for nearly all of Tesla’s direct EV competitors than they are for a Tesla. And Tesla is opening its U.S. charging network to everyone (which it already does in much of Europe), eliminating the last reason to buy its now trailing-edge EVs. In fact, Tesla is likely now the second, third or fourth choice for many EV buyers, and only maintains its volume lead though a short-lived edge in production capacity that will disappear over the next 12 to 36 months as competitors rapidly increase the ability to produce their superior EVs. Tesla’s poorly-built Model Y faces current (or imminent) competition from the much better made (and often just better) electric Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Ford Mustang Mach E, Cadillac Lyriq, Nissan Ariya, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Chevrolet Blazer EV & Equinox EV and Polestar 3. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, the great new BMW i4, the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 6 and Volkswagen ID.7, and multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Porsche Taycan (the base model of which is now considerably less expensive than Tesla’s Model S) outsells the Model S, while the spectacular new BMW i7, Mercedes EQS, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make it look like a fast Yugo, and the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX, Mercedes EQS SUV and Audi Q8 eTron (as well as multiple new Chinese models) do the same to the Model X. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as by the time it’s in mass-production in 2024 it will enter a dogfight of a market vs. Ford’s hot-selling all-electric F-150 Lightning and GM’s fantastic 2023 electric Silverado (which already has nearly 200,000 reservations), while Rivian’s pick-up has gotten excellent reviews and Ram will also be out with a great electric truck in Q4 ‘24. Tesla Is Netflix Indeed, for years I’ve said “Tesla is Blackberry”—the maker of a first-generation version of a product that—once the market was proven—would be supplanted into niche obscurity by newer, better versions; now I can provide a much more recent analogy: Tesla is Netflix. For years Netflix had an absurd valuation based on its pioneering position in streaming media, but once it proved that such a market existed myriad competitors swarmed all over it, and in 2022 the stock collapsed. I believe Musk knows that Tesla is “the next Netflix” (hence his recent “Twitter buying distraction”), with VW Group, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, BYD & other Chinese competitors and, in a few years, Toyota & Honda, being the Disney, HBO Max, Amazon Prime, Peacock, Hulu, Paramount+, etc. of the electric car market, stealing Tesla’s share and eventually pounding its stock price into low double-digits, where it would be valued as “just another car company.” Fraudulent Full Self Driving Meanwhile, the NHTSA has initiated the first of what will likely be multiple recalls of Tesla’s fraudulently named “Full Self Driving,” and in January it was revealed that Elon Musk personally directed its fake, fraudulent promotional video (something extremely similar to what Theranos did with its blood machines and Nikola with its truck), and that the DOJ is investigating him for it and so is the SEC. The refund liability potential for Tesla for this is in the billions of dollars, and possibly even the tens of billions if a class action lawsuit proves that the cars involved were purchased solely due to the (fallacious) promise of “full self-driving.” And, of course, there will be a massive “valuation reappraisal” for Tesla’s stock as the world wakes up to the fact that its so-called “autonomy technology” is deadly, trailing-edge garbage that Consumer Reports now ranks just seventh vs. competitors’ systems (behind Ford, GM, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota and Volkswagen). Meanwhile, the NHTSA continues to report a slew of Autopilot-related deaths, yet Tesla has sold this trashy software for over six years now: …and still promotes it on its website via the aforementioned completely fraudulent video! (For all Tesla-related deaths cited in the media—which is likely only a small fraction of those that have occurred—please see TeslaDeaths.com.) Want to see another Elon Musk/Tesla fraud summarized in a simple bar graph? In this recent Consumer Reports test, note which of these cars never comes close—in any environmental conditions—to meeting its claimed EPA range: Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market, even if Tesla makes some of its own,  other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone, and BMW has already announced it will buy them from CATL and EVE. Regarding safety, as noted earlier in this letter, Tesla continues to deceptively sell its hugely dangerous so-called “Autopilot” system; God only knows how many more people this monstrosity unleashed on public roads will kill. Elsewhere in safety, the Chinese government forced the recall of tens of thousands of Teslas for a dangerous suspension defect the company spent years trying to cover up, and Tesla has been hit by a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. for the same defect. Tesla also knowingly sold cars that it knew were a fire hazard and did the same with solar systems, and after initially refusing to do so voluntarily, it was forced to recall a dangerously defective touchscreen. In other words, when it comes to the safety of customers and innocent bystanders, Tesla is truly one of the most vile companies on Earth. Meanwhile the massive number of lawsuits of all types against the company continues to escalate. So Here Is Tesla's Competition In Cars... (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Macan Electric Coming in 2024 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen unveils ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz Electric Van Volkswagen ID.7 Luxury Sedan New sketch of 2025 Volkswagen ID.1 unveiled VW’s Cupra Born Volkswagen unveils $7.1B commitment to boost product line-up, R&D, mfg in N. America Audi Q8 e-tron electric SUV Audi e-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron electric SUV Audi A6 e-tron: 2023's new electric Tesla fighter spied Audi will expand EV lineup with electric A6 wagon Audi TT to be axed in 2023 for 'emotional', electric replacement Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV9 to land in US in 2023 with 300-miles range, $50,000 price Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS Mercedes EQS SUV Mercedes EQE Mercedes EQE SUV Mercedes EQC electric SUV available in Europe & China Mercedes EQV Electric Passenger Van Mercedes EQB Mercedes EQA SUV Ford Mustang Mach-E Ford F-150 Lightning Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford unveils Lincoln Star electric SUV concept as it readies to add four new EVs by 2026 Chevrolet Blazer EV Chevrolet Equinox EV Chevrolet Bolt Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq Cadillac to start making 3 more EVs in 2024 GMC Electric Hummer Pick-Up and SUV GM electric Silverado pickup truck GMC Sierra EV Denali GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services GM & Honda Will Codevelop Affordable EVs Targeting Most Popular Vehicle Segments Two Jeep EVs to make U.S. debuts in 2024 BMW iX3 BMW iX BMW i4 sedan BMW i7 BMW iX1 Nissan Ariya: All-Electric Crossover SUV Nissan LEAF e+ Nissan aims to electrify 98% of Europe sales, helped by Renault Polestar 2 sedan Polestar 3 electric SUV Volvo XC40 Recharge electric SUV Volvo C40 Recharge electric crossover Volvo EX90 electric SUV Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises 'heart-of-the-market SUV' from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Ram 1500 Revolution Battery-electric Vehicle Unveiled at CES 2023 Chrysler to go all-EV by 2028 Honda, Sony to start premium EV deliveries in 2026 Honda pours $40 billion into electrification, targets 2 million EV production by 2030 Alfa Romeo's First Electric Car Will Arrive in 2024 Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Peugeot's full-electric 3008 and 5008 SUVs will have up to 700 km range Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Rivian electric pickup trucks & SUVs Maserati GranTurismo Debuts As Brand’s First EV With Three Motors, AWD Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota bZ4X Toyota will have lineup of 30 full EVs by 2030; Lexus will be all-electric brand Opel Corsa-e Opel expands EV lineup with battery-electric Astra Vauxhall Mokka electric Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV Skoda Enyaq electric coupe Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals BYD presents three BEVs for European market Nio expands into Europe and beyond Lucid Motors: Electric Luxury Cars Rolls-Royce Electric Spectre, Available 2023 Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Sono Sion Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China, Where Tesla’s EV Market Share Is Now Declining... BYD is #1 in Chinese EVs, selling FAR more than Tesla Volkswagen to boost Chinese EV capacity to 1m by 2023 Audi-FAW's $3.3 billion electric vehicle venture Nio Xpeng Motors Hozon/Neta Li Auto GAC Aion Leap Motors GM plans to launch over 15 EV models in China by 2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E Rolls Off Assembly Line in China Cheaper than Tesla: Honda takes aim at China's middle class BMW i3 Debuts As All-Electric 3 Series Only For China Hongqi Geely Zeekr Premium EVs by Geely Baidu and Geely put nearly $400 million more into their electric car venture China-made Mercedes-Benz EQE hits market BAIC Hyundai, BAIC Motor to inject $942 mn in China JV for EVs Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Lexus RZ 450e Steers For China Dongfeng SAIC Renault launches sales of first EV in China Nissan expects 40% of sales in China to be electrified by 2026 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weimar Chery Seres Enovate Singulato JAC Motors Iconiq Motors Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia Human Horizons Xiaomi announces plans for four electric vehicle models Here's Tesla's Competition In Autonomous Driving; The Independents All Have Deals With Major OEMs… Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Waymo operates robotaxis NOW GM’s Cruise operates robotaxis NOW Mobileye operates driverless test fleets in Europe and the U.S. Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Ford’s hands-free “Blue Cruise” Mercedes Launches SAE Level 3 Drive Pilot System Honda Legend Sedan with Level 3 Autonomy Now Available in Japan Motional (Hyundai) & Uber Announce Autonomous Ride-hail and Delivery Services Stellantis Completes Acquisition of aiMotive to Accelerate Autonomous Driving Journey Amazon’s Zoox will test its autonomous vehicles on Seattle’s rainy streets Baidu to further deploy 200 driverless vehicles in China in 2023 Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Pony.ai approved for public driverless robotaxi service in Beijing SAIC-backed Xiangdao Chuxing kicks off Robotaxi pilot operation in Shenzhen WeRide greenlighted for autonomous road test with empty driver’s seat in Beijing Here's Where Tesla's Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells... Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Northvolt Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe GM’s Ultium GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems SK On and Ford form BlueOval SK, an EV battery joint venture Hyundai teams with SK to make batteries for U.S.-built EVs Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and Samsung SDI to Invest Over $2.5B in Battery Production Plant in United States Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Mercedes-Benz and Sila achieve breakthrough with high silicon automotive battery Toyota to invest $5.3bn to make EV batteries in U.S. and Japan Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Honda and LG Energy Formally Establish Battery Production Joint Venture Honda, GS Yuasa agree to collaborate in lithium-ion batteries Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries Foxconn breaks ground on first EV battery plant Envision-AESC ONE EVE Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Morrow Here's Tesla's Competition In Charging Networks... Tesla will open charging network to other EVs Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America EVgo Chargepoint Ionity Europe Shell 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM, EVgo, and Pilot will install 2,000 fast chargers at travel centers GM to Expand Access to EV Charging with More than 40,000 Charging Stations Mercedes will build its own EV charging network Ford To Have One Of The Largest DC Fast-Charging Networks In US Volkswagen powers up the grid to take on Tesla Volkswagen-backed CAMS eyes deployment of 17,000 charging points in China by 2025 Circle K begins North American EV fast charger rollout, plans 200-site network by 2024 Porsche to build out its own network of EV charging stations Petro-Canada Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta E.On BP Volkswagen and BP partner to deploy up to 8,000 EV chargers across EU/UK Smatric Allego Podpoint Instavolt Fastned Total Nio Battery Swap Stations BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales Evie Tritium, DC-America Join Forces to Provide coast-to-coast EV charging network   And Here's Tesla's Competition In Storage Batteries... Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions CATL BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Generac GM Energy Canadian Solar Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS Electriq Power Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bollore Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei Toyota ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium Alfen Quino Energy Gotion ZincFive Dragonfly Energy Thanks, Mark Spiegel Stanphyl Capital.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkMar 1st, 2023

Tesla 2023 Earnings Will Be At Least 30% Lower Than 2022 – Shortseller

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended January 31, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Margin-Destroying Price Cuts Tesla kicked off 2023 with massive, margin-destroying price cuts worldwide (on top of large cuts in Q4 2022), and while this will undoubtedly generate more sales, 2023’s roughly 12% ASP cut vs. Q4, combined […] Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended January 31, 2023, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Margin-Destroying Price Cuts Tesla kicked off 2023 with massive, margin-destroying price cuts worldwide (on top of large cuts in Q4 2022), and while this will undoubtedly generate more sales, 2023’s roughly 12% ASP cut vs. Q4, combined with 2023 production (and, we’ll generously assume, delivery) guidance of 1.8 million cars mean 2023’s earnings will be at least 30% lower than 2022’s, and perhaps as much as 40% lower. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get Our Activist Investing Case Study! Get the entire 10-part series on our in-depth study on activist investing in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or print it out to read anywhere! Sign up below! (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   In other words, Tesla is no longer a “growth” company unless you like your “growth” to be profitless! Most disturbingly for Tesla bulls, despite those 12% average price cuts vs. Q4, at 1.8 million units the company is only guiding to 11% more delivery volume vs. Q4’s 405,000 annualized run-rate of 1.62 million. It’s also only guiding to 2% more production than Q4’s annualized rate of 1.76 million, so where will the “volume savings” to support price cuts come from? And what will Tesla do for its next “growth trick”? Sell cars at a loss? As Tesla slashes prices it will undoubtedly sell more cars, but any other auto company can do the same thing. Goodbye “story-stock tech company” and hello “low-margin, cyclical car company” in an industry with single-digit PE ratios! For some valuation perspective, BMW (with a market cap of around $68 billion) sells around 2.5 million cars a year with higher net margins than Tesla will have in 2023, and it makes the best electric SUV now on the market (the new iX), the best luxury EV (the new i7), and among the best small luxury EVs (the new i4). If Tesla sells 1.8 million cars this year (and remember, that would be just 11% growth over Q4 annualized), it would be 72% the size of BMW with only slightly higher growth but with lower net margins. A proportionate-to-deliveries 72% of BMW’s market cap would value Tesla at just $49 billion, which would be only around $15.50 share vs. this month's closing price in the $173s! (And please don’t lecture me about Tesla’s “battery business,” which nets almost nothing and is in an extremely competitive, low-margin industry for every participant.) (By the way, I generously assume that 2023 Tesla earnings will include some combination of quarterly environmental credits equal to Q4’s obscene $467 million, with emission credit sales gradually being replaced by various new battery production and alternative fuel-derived credits. I also credit Tesla for the full $324 million in quarterly so-called “Full Self-Driving” profit it recognized in Q4, even though this is a fraudulently named product that’s likely to be recalled by the NHTSA, thereby presenting Tesla with a massive multi-billion-dollar liability.) Loss Of Product Edge Meanwhile, Tesla has objectively lost its “product edge,” with many competing cars now offering comparable or better real-world range, better interiors, similar or faster charging speeds and much better quality. (Tesla ranks near the bottom of Consumer Reports’ reliability survey while British consumer organization Which? found it to be one of the least reliable cars in existence.) Thus, due to competitors’ temporary production constraints, waiting times are now longer for nearly all of Tesla’s direct EV competitors than they are for a Tesla. In fact, Tesla is likely now the second, third or fourth choice for many EV buyers, and only maintains its volume lead though a short-lived edge in production capacity that will disappear over the next 12 to 36 months as competitors rapidly increase the ability to produce their superior EVs. Tesla’s poorly-built Model Y faces current (or imminent) competition from the much better made (and often just better) electric Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Ford Mustang Mach E, Cadillac Lyriq, Nissan Ariya, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Chevrolet Blazer EV & $30,000 Equinox EV and Polestar 3. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, the great new BMW i4, the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 6 and Volkswagen ID.7, and multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Porsche Taycan (the base model of which is now considerably less expensive than Tesla’s Model S) outsells the Model S, while the spectacular new BMW i7, Mercedes EQS, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make it look like a fast Yugo, and the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX, Mercedes EQS SUV and Audi Q8 eTron (as well as multiple new Chinese models) do the same to the Model X. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as by the time it’s in mass-production in 2024 it will enter a dogfight of a market vs. Ford’s hot-selling all-electric F-150 Lightning and GM’s fantastic 2023 electric Silverado (which already has nearly 200,000 reservations), while Rivian’s pick-up has gotten excellent reviews, and Ram will also be out with a great electric truck in 2024. Tesla Is Netflix Indeed, for years I’ve said “Tesla is Blackberry”—the maker of a first-generation version of a product that—once the market was proven—would be supplanted into niche obscurity by newer, better versions; now I can provide a much more recent analogy: Tesla is Netflix. For years Netflix had an absurd valuation based on its pioneering position in streaming media, but once it proved that such a market existed myriad competitors swarmed all over it, and in 2022 the stock collapsed. I believe Musk knows that Tesla is “the next Netflix” (hence his recent “Twitter buying distraction”), with VW Group, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, BYD & other Chinese competitors and, in a few years, Toyota & Honda, being the Disney, HBO Max, Amazon Prime, Peacock, Hulu, Paramount+, etc. of the electric car market, stealing Tesla’s share and eventually pounding its stock price into low double-digits, where it would be valued as “just another car company.” Meanwhile, the NHTSA’s investigation of Tesla’s deadly Autopilot is now proceeding “really fast,” the last required step before (finally!) demanding a full recall, and in January it was revealed that Elon Musk personally directed its fake, fraudulent promotional video (something extremely similar to what Theranos did with its blood machines and Nikola with its truck), and that the DOJ is investigating him for it and so is the SEC. The refund liability potential for Tesla for this is in the billions of dollars, and possibly even the tens of billions if a class action lawsuit proves that the cars involved were purchased solely due to the (fallacious) promise of “full self-driving.” And, of course, there will be a massive “valuation reappraisal” for Tesla’s stock as the world wakes up to the fact that its so-called “autonomy technology” is deadly, trailing-edge garbage that Consumer Reports now ranks just seventh vs. competitors’ systems (behind Ford, GM, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota and Volkswagen). Meanwhile, the NHTSA continues to report a slew of Autopilot-related deaths, yet Tesla has sold this trashy software for over six years now: ...and still promotes it on its website via the aforementioned completely fraudulent video! (For all Tesla-related deaths cited in the media—which is likely only a small fraction of those that have occurred—please see TeslaDeaths.com.) Want to see another Elon Musk/Tesla fraud summarized in a simple bar graph? In this recent Consumer Reports test, note which of these cars never comes close—in any environmental conditions—to meeting its claimed EPA range: Nothing Proprietary Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market, even if Tesla makes some of its own, other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone, and BMW has already announced it will buy them from CATL and EVE. Regarding safety, as noted earlier in this letter, Tesla continues to deceptively sell its hugely dangerous so-called “Autopilot” system; God only knows how many more people this monstrosity unleashed on public roads will kill despite the NTSB condemning it. Elsewhere in safety, the Chinese government forced the recall of tens of thousands of Teslas for a dangerous suspension defect the company spent years trying to cover up, and Tesla has been hit by a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. for the same defect. Tesla also knowingly sold cars that it knew were a fire hazard and did the same with solar systems, and after initially refusing to do so voluntarily, it was forced to recall a dangerously defective touchscreen. In other words, when it comes to the safety of customers and innocent bystanders, Tesla is truly one of the most vile companies on Earth. Meanwhile the massive number of lawsuits of all types against the company continues to escalate. So Here Is Tesla's Competition In Cars... (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo Porsche Macan Electric SUV Officially Coming in 2023 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen unveils ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz Electric Van Volkswagen ID.7 Luxury Sedan New sketch of 2025 Volkswagen ID.1 unveiled VW’s Cupra Born Volkswagen unveils $7.1B commitment to boost product line-up, R&D, mfg in N. America Audi Q8 e-tron electric SUV Audi e-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron electric SUV Audi A6 e-tron: 2023's new electric Tesla fighter spied Audi will expand EV lineup with electric A6 wagon Audi TT to be axed in 2023 for 'emotional', electric replacement Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV9 to land in US in 2023 with 300-miles range, $50,000 price Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS: the first electric vehicle in the luxury class 2023 Mercedes EQS SUV Is a Seven-Seat EV Flagship with up to 536 HP 2023 Mercedes EQE Electric Sedan Mercedes EQE SUV to rival BMW iX and Tesla Model X Mercedes EQC electric SUV available now in Europe & China Mercedes-Benz Launches the EQV, its First Fully-Electric Passenger Van Mercedes-Benz EQB Makes Its European Debut, US Sales Confirmed Mercedes-Benz unveils EQA electric SUV with 265 miles of range and ~$46,000 price Ford Mustang Mach-E Ford F-150 Lightning Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford unveils Lincoln Star electric SUV concept as it readies to add four new EVs by 2026 Chevrolet Blazer EV Chevrolet Equinox EV Chevrolet Bolt sedan, 259-mile range starting at $31,000 Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq GMC Electric Hummer Pick-Up and SUV GM electric Silverado pickup truck GMC Sierra EV Denali GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services GM & Honda Will Codevelop Affordable EVs Targeting Most Popular Vehicle Segments Two Jeep EVs to make U.S. debuts in 2024 BMW leads off EV offensive with iX3 BMW expands EV offerings with iX tech flagship and i4 sedan BMW i7 EV, with 600 hp, will be most powerful variant of new 7 Series flagship BMW iX1 Revealed With 313 HP, 272 Miles WLTP Range Renault-Nissan alliance plows $26B into EV blitz- will jointly launch 35 new EVs Nissan Ariya: All-Electric Crossover SUV Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now Nissan Unveils $18 Billion Electric-Vehicle Strategy Polestar 2 sedan Polestar 3 electric SUV Volvo XC40 Recharge electric SUV Volvo C40 Recharge electric crossover Volvo EX90 electric SUV Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises 'heart-of-the-market SUV' from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Ram 1500 Revolution Battery-electric Vehicle Unveiled at CES 2023 Chrysler to go all-EV by 2028 Honda, Sony to start premium EV deliveries in 2026 Honda pours $40 billion into electrification, targets 2 million EV production by 2030 Alfa Romeo's First Electric Car Will Arrive in 2024 Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Peugeot's full-electric 3008 and 5008 SUVs will have up to 700 km range Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Rivian electric pickup trucks & SUVs Maserati GranTurismo Debuts As Brand’s First EV With Three Motors, AWD Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota bZ4X Toyota will have lineup of 30 full EVs by 2030; Lexus will be all-electric brand Opel Corsa-e Opel expands EV lineup with battery-electric Astra Vauxhall Mokka electric Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV Skoda Enyaq electric coupe Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals BYD presents three BEVs for European market Nio expands into Europe and beyond Lucid Motors: Electric Luxury Cars Rolls-Royce Electric Spectre, Available 2023 Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Sono Sion Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China, Where Tesla's EV Market Share Is Now Declining... BYD is #1 in Chinese EVs, selling FAR more than Tesla Volkswagen to boost Chinese EV capacity to 1m by 2023 Audi-FAW's $3.3 billion electric vehicle venture Nio Xpeng Motors Hozon/Neta Li Auto GAC Aion Leap Motors GM plans to launch over 15 EV models in China by 2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E Rolls Off Assembly Line in China Cheaper than Tesla: Honda takes aim at China's middle class BMW i3 Debuts As All-Electric 3 Series Only For China Hongqi Geely Zeekr Premium EVs by Geely Baidu and Geely put nearly $400 million more into their electric car venture China-made Mercedes-Benz EQE hits market BAIC Hyundai, BAIC Motor to inject $942 mn in China JV for EVs Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Lexus RZ 450e Steers For China Dongfeng SAIC Renault launches sales of first EV in China Nissan expects 40% of sales in China to be electrified by 2026 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weimar Chery Seres Enovate Singulato JAC Motors Iconiq Motors Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia Human Horizons Xiaomi announces plans for four electric vehicle models Here's Tesla's Competition In Autonomous Driving; The Independents All Have Deals With Major OEMs… Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Waymo operates robotaxis NOW GM’s Cruise operates robotaxis NOW Mobileye operates driverless test fleets in Europe and the U.S. Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Ford’s hands-free “Blue Cruise” Mercedes Launches SAE Level 3 Drive Pilot System Honda Legend Sedan with Level 3 Autonomy Now Available in Japan Motional (Hyundai) & Uber Announce Autonomous Ride-hail and Delivery Services Stellantis Completes Acquisition of aiMotive to Accelerate Autonomous Driving Journey Amazon’s Zoox will test its autonomous vehicles on Seattle’s rainy streets Baidu to further deploy 200 driverless vehicles in China in 2023 Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Pony.ai approved for public driverless robotaxi service in Beijing SAIC-backed Xiangdao Chuxing kicks off Robotaxi pilot operation in Shenzhen WeRide greenlighted for autonomous road test with empty driver’s seat in Beijing Here's Where Tesla's Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells... Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Northvolt Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe GM’s Ultium GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems SK On and Ford form BlueOval SK, an EV battery joint venture Hyundai teams with SK to make batteries for U.S.-built EVs Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and Samsung SDI to Invest Over $2.5B in Battery Production Plant in United States Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Mercedes-Benz and Sila achieve breakthrough with high silicon automotive battery Toyota to invest $5.3bn to make EV batteries in U.S. and Japan Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Honda and LG Energy Formally Establish Battery Production Joint Venture Honda, GS Yuasa agree to collaborate in lithium-ion batteries Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries Foxconn breaks ground on first EV battery plant Envision-AESC ONE EVE Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Morrow Here's Tesla's Competition In Charging Networks... Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America EVgo Chargepoint Ionity Europe Shell 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM, EVgo, and Pilot will install 2,000 fast chargers at travel centers GM to Expand Access to EV Charging with More than 40,000 Charging Stations Mercedes will build its own EV charging network Ford To Have One Of The Largest DC Fast-Charging Networks In US Volkswagen powers up the grid to take on Tesla Volkswagen-backed CAMS eyes deployment of 17,000 charging points in China by 2025 Circle K begins North American EV fast charger rollout, plans 200-site network by 2024 Porsche to build out its own network of EV charging stations Petro-Canada Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta E.On BP Volkswagen and BP partner to deploy up to 8,000 EV chargers across EU/UK Smatric Allego Podpoint Instavolt Fastned Total Nio Battery Swap Stations BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales Evie Tritium, DC-America Join Forces to Provide coast-to-coast EV charging network   And Here's Tesla's Competition In Storage Batteries... Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions CATL BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Generac GM Energy Canadian Solar Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS Electriq Power Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bollore Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei Toyota ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium Alfen Quino Energy Gotion ZincFive Dragonfly Energy Thanks, Mark Spiegel Stanphyl Capital.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkFeb 1st, 2023

Tesla’s Production Capacity Outstrips Incoming Orders – Shortseller

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended December 31, 2022, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Inventory Pile Up Despite running its new factories in the U.S. and Germany at only around 20% of capacity, massive amounts of excess Tesla inventory piled up in Q4, spurring huge, margin-slashing price cuts in China, Europe, […] Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended December 31, 2022, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Inventory Pile Up Despite running its new factories in the U.S. and Germany at only around 20% of capacity, massive amounts of excess Tesla inventory piled up in Q4, spurring huge, margin-slashing price cuts in China, Europe, the U.S. and Canada & Mexico, and even forcing the company’s China plant to slash December and January production. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   Tesla’s production capacity now hugely outstrips its rate of incoming orders, which undoubtedly explains why the company is implementing layoffs and a hiring freeze, and its used car prices are plunging too, further killing demand for new ones. Goodbye “story-stock tech company” and hello “cyclical car company” in an industry with single-digit PE ratios! As Tesla slashes prices it will undoubtedly sell more cars (I expect Q4 deliveries to be slightly over 400,000 vs. previous quarters in the 300,000s, thanks to the aforementioned massive price cuts plus a rush to beat big year-end expiring EV incentives in China, Germany, France and Norway), but any other car company can slash prices and do the same thing. And again, Tesla’s apparent market saturation rate of around 1.6 million cars/year worldwide (at least until it slashes prices yet again!) is massively below its current factories’ production capacity, much less the bulls’ absurd expectations of adding a new factory every six months for the next ten years in order to sell 20 million cars a year! For some valuation perspective, BMW sells around 2.5 million cars a year with very high margins (including the best electric SUV now on the market (the new iX), the best luxury EV (the new i7), and among the best small luxury EVs (the new i4), and has a market cap of around $59 billion. If Tesla grew annual deliveries to the size of BMW’s (50% higher than its current run-rate!) and had BMW-level margins, at BMW's current market cap it would sell for less than $19/share vs. this month's closing price in the $123s! (Remember: Tesla now has 3.16 billion shares outstanding!) Meanwhile, Elon Musk remains the most vile person ever to head a large-cap U.S. public company, and we remain short Tesla, the biggest bubble-stock in modern market history, because: It has a sliding share of the world’s EV market yet—even after its recent plunge—still has a market cap greater than those of Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, GM and Ford combined (all of which now offer great EVs), despite stalling out at around 1.6 million annual deliveries vs. a combined 34 million for those other companies! It has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of its electric car technology (which has now been equaled or surpassed by numerous competitors) and its previously proprietary Superchargers are being opened to everyone). Excluding working capital benefits and sunsetting emission credit sales, Tesla generates only minimal earnings and free cash flow. Elon Musk is a pathological liar who - through his recent “Twitter insanity” - has wrecked the already competition-diminished Tesla brand. Expectations From Q4 Earnings In January Tesla will likely announce Q4 deliveries of a bit over 400,000 cars, yet thanks to the massive amount of price-cutting necessary to sell those cars, its earnings (excluding unforeseen extraordinary items) will likely only slightly surpass its Q3 GAAP number of around .87/share excluding sunsetting emission credit sales. And if—after viewing this chart from Twitter user @Keubiko—you believe that Q3 earnings number wasn’t grossly exaggerated, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn: Furthermore, Tesla’s minimal depreciation of its new factories appears fraudulently low, as does its warranty reserve. Even if you believe Tesla’s clearly nonsensical reported earnings, excluding emission credit sales they annualize to only $3.48/share, which based on the current price of $123.18 = a run-rate PE ratio of around 35 for a now slow-growing, margin-slashing car company in an industry with a current average PE of around 5! Meanwhile, Tesla has objectively lost its “product edge,” with many competing cars now offering comparable or better real-world range, better interiors, similar or faster charging speeds and much better quality. (Tesla ranks near the bottom of Consumer Reports’ reliability survey while British consumer organization Which? found it to be one of the least reliable cars in existence.) Thus, due to competitors’ temporary production constraints, waiting times are now longer for nearly all of Tesla’s direct EV competitors than they are for a Tesla. In fact, Tesla is likely now the second, third or fourth choice for many EV buyers, and only maintains its volume lead though a short-lived edge in production capacity that will disappear over the next 12 to 36 months as competitors rapidly increase the ability to produce their superior EVs. Tesla’s poorly-built Model Y faces current (or imminent) competition from the much better made (and often just better) electric Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Ford Mustang Mach E, Cadillac Lyriq, Nissan Ariya, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Chevrolet Blazer EV & $30,000 Equinox EV and Polestar 3. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, the great new BMW i4, the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 6 and Volkswagen Aero, and multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Porsche Taycan (the base model of which is now considerably less expensive than Tesla’s Model S) outsells the Model S, while the spectacular new BMW i7, Mercedes EQS, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make it look like a fast Yugo, and the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX, Mercedes EQS SUV and Audi Q8 eTron (as well as multiple new Chinese models) do the same to the Model X. Tesla Is Netflix Indeed, for years I’ve said “Tesla is Blackberry”—the maker of a first-generation version of a product that—once the market was proven—would be supplanted into niche obscurity by newer, better versions; now I can provide a much more recent analogy: Tesla is Netflix. For years Netflix had an absurd valuation based on its pioneering position in streaming media, but once it proved that such a market existed myriad competitors swarmed all over it, and in 2022 the stock collapsed when we learned that not only is Netflix no longer in “hypergrowth” mode but for the first time since 2011 (when it transitioned from physical DVDs) it actually lost subscribers. I believe Musk knows that Tesla is “the next Netflix” (hence his recent “Twitter buying distraction”), with VW Group, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, BYD & other Chinese competitors and, in a few years, Toyota & Honda, being the Disney, HBO Max, Amazon Prime, Peacock, Hulu, Paramount+, etc. of the electric car market, stealing Tesla’s share and eventually pounding its stock price into low double-digits, where it would be valued as “just another car company.” Meanwhile, the NHTSA’s investigation of Tesla’s deadly Autopilot has expanded into “an engineering analysis,” the last required step before (finally!) demanding a full recall, and in October it was reported that this deadly scam is being investigated by both the SEC and the DOJ. The refund liability potential for Tesla for this is in the billions of dollars, and possibly even the tens of billions if a class action lawsuit proves that the cars involved were purchased solely due to the (fallacious) promise of “full self-driving.” And, of course, there will be a massive “valuation reappraisal” for Tesla’s stock as the world wakes up to the fact that its so-called “autonomy technology” is deadly, trailing-edge garbage. Meanwhile, the NHTSA continues to report a slew of Autopilot-related deaths, yet Tesla has sold this trashy software for over six years now: …and still promotes it on its website via a completely fraudulent video! (For all Tesla-related deaths cited in the media—which is likely only a small fraction of those that have occurred—please see TeslaDeaths.com.) Want to see another Elon Musk/Tesla fraud summarized in a simple bar graph? In this recent Consumer Reports test, note which of these cars never comes close—in any environmental conditions—to meeting its claimed EPA range: Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market, even if Tesla makes some of its own,  other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone, and BMW has already announced it will buy them from CATL and EVE. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either. As by the time it’s in mass-production in late 2023/early 2024 it will enter a dogfight of a market vs. Ford’s hot-selling all-electric F-150 Lightning and GM’s fantastic 2023 electric Silverado (which already has nearly 200,000 reservations), while Rivian’s pick-up has gotten excellent early reviews, and Ram will also be out with a great electric truck in 2024. Regarding safety, as noted earlier in this letter, Tesla continues to deceptively sell its hugely dangerous so-called “Autopilot” system, which Consumer Reports has completely eviscerated; God only knows how many more people this monstrosity unleashed on public roads will kill despite the NTSB condemning it. Elsewhere in safety, the Chinese government forced the recall of tens of thousands of Teslas for a dangerous suspension defect the company spent years trying to cover up, and Tesla has been hit by a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. for the same defect. Tesla also knowingly sold cars that it knew were a fire hazard and did the same with solar systems, and after initially refusing to do so voluntarily, it was forced to recall a dangerously defective touchscreen. In other words, when it comes to the safety of customers and innocent bystanders, Tesla is truly one of the most vile companies on Earth. Meanwhile the massive number of lawsuits of all types against the company continues to escalate. So Here Is Tesla’s Competition In Cars... (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo Porsche Macan Electric SUV Officially Coming in 2023 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen unveils ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz Electric Van Volkswagen unveils the ID. AERO sedan with 385 miles of range New sketch of 2025 Volkswagen ID.1 unveiled VW’s Cupra Born Volkswagen unveils $7.1B commitment to boost product line-up, R&D, mfg in N. America Audi Q8 e-tron electric SUV Audi e-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron electric SUV Audi A6 e-tron: 2023's new electric Tesla fighter spied Audi will expand EV lineup with electric A6 wagon Audi TT to be axed in 2023 for 'emotional', electric replacement Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV9 to land in US in 2023 with 300-miles range, $50,000 price Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS: the first electric vehicle in the luxury class 2023 Mercedes EQS SUV Is a Seven-Seat EV Flagship with up to 536 HP 2023 Mercedes EQE Electric Sedan Mercedes EQE SUV to rival BMW iX and Tesla Model X Mercedes EQC electric SUV available now in Europe & China Mercedes-Benz Launches the EQV, its First Fully-Electric Passenger Van Mercedes-Benz EQB Makes Its European Debut, US Sales Confirmed Mercedes-Benz unveils EQA electric SUV with 265 miles of range and ~$46,000 price Ford Mustang Mach-E Ford F-150 Lightning Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford unveils Lincoln Star electric SUV concept as it readies to add four new EVs by 2026 Chevrolet Blazer EV Chevrolet Equinox EV Chevrolet Bolt sedan, 259-mile range starting at $31,000 Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq GMC Electric Hummer Pick-Up and SUV GM electric Silverado pickup truck GMC Sierra EV Denali GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services GM & Honda Will Codevelop Affordable EVs Targeting Most Popular Vehicle Segments Two Jeep EVs to make U.S. debuts in 2024 BMW leads off EV offensive with iX3 BMW expands EV offerings with iX tech flagship and i4 sedan BMW i7 EV, with 600 hp, will be most powerful variant of new 7 Series flagship BMW iX1 Revealed With 313 HP, 272 Miles WLTP Range Renault-Nissan alliance plows $26B into EV blitz- will jointly launch 35 new EVs Nissan Ariya: All-Electric Crossover SUV Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now Nissan Unveils $18 Billion Electric-Vehicle Strategy Polestar 2 sedan Polestar 3 electric SUV Volvo XC40 Recharge electric SUV Volvo C40 Recharge electric crossover Volvo EX90 electric SUV Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises 'heart-of-the-market SUV' from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Chrysler to go all-EV by 2028 Honda, Sony to start premium EV deliveries in 2026 Honda pours $40 billion into electrification, targets 2 million EV production by 2030 Alfa Romeo's First Electric Car Will Arrive in 2024 Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Rivian electric pickup trucks & SUVs Maserati GranTurismo Debuts As Brand’s First EV With Three Motors, AWD Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota bZ4X Toyota will have lineup of 30 full EVs by 2030; Lexus will be all-electric brand Opel Corsa-e Opel expands EV lineup with battery-electric Astra Vauxhall Mokka electric Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV Skoda Enyaq electric coupe Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals BYD presents three BEVs for European market Nio expands into Europe and beyond Lucid Motors: Electric Luxury Cars Rolls-Royce Electric Spectre, Available 2023 Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Sono Sion Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And in China, where Tesla’s EV market share is now declining… BYD is #1 in Chinese EVs, selling FAR more than Tesla Volkswagen to boost Chinese EV capacity to 1m by 2023 Audi-FAW's $3.3 billion electric vehicle venture Nio Xpeng Motors Hozon/Neta Li Auto GAC Aion Leap Motors GM plans to launch over 15 EV models in China by 2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E Rolls Off Assembly Line in China Cheaper than Tesla: Honda takes aim at China's middle class BMW i3 Debuts As All-Electric 3 Series Only For China Hongqi Geely Zeekr Premium EVs by Geely Baidu and Geely put nearly $400 million more into their electric car venture China-made Mercedes-Benz EQE hits market BAIC Hyundai, BAIC Motor to inject $942 mn in China JV for EVs Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Lexus RZ 450e Steers For China Dongfeng SAIC Renault launches sales of first EV in China Nissan expects 40% of sales in China to be electrified by 2026 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weimar Chery Seres Enovate Singulato JAC Motors Iconiq Motors Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia Human Horizons Xiaomi announces plans for four electric vehicle models Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Autonomous Driving; The Independents All Have Deals With Major OEMs… Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Waymo operates robotaxis NOW GM’s Cruise operates robotaxis NOW Mobileye operates driverless test fleets in Europe and the U.S. Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Ford’s hands-free “Blue Cruise” Mercedes Launches SAE Level 3 Drive Pilot System Honda Legend Sedan with Level 3 Autonomy Now Available in Japan Motional (Hyundai) & Uber Announce Autonomous Ride-hail and Delivery Services Stellantis Completes Acquisition of aiMotive to Accelerate Autonomous Driving Journey Amazon’s Zoox will test its autonomous vehicles on Seattle’s rainy streets Baidu to further deploy 200 driverless vehicles in China in 2023 Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Pony.ai approved for public driverless robotaxi service in Beijing SAIC-backed Xiangdao Chuxing kicks off Robotaxi pilot operation in Shenzhen WeRide greenlighted for autonomous road test with empty driver’s seat in Beijing Here’s Where Tesla’s Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells… Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Northvolt Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe GM’s Ultium GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems SK On and Ford form BlueOval SK, an EV battery joint venture Hyundai teams with SK to make batteries for U.S.-built EVs Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and Samsung SDI to Invest Over $2.5B in Battery Production Plant in United States Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Mercedes-Benz and Sila achieve breakthrough with high silicon automotive battery Toyota to invest $5.3bn to make EV batteries in U.S. and Japan Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Honda Motor, LG Energy to build $4.4 bln U.S. EV battery plant Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries UK companies AMTE Power and Britishvolt plan $4.9 billion investment in battery plants Foxconn breaks ground on first EV battery plant Envision-AESC ONE EVE Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Morrow Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Charging Networks… Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America EVgo Chargepoint Ionity Europe Shell 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM, EVgo, and Pilot will install 2,000 fast chargers at travel centers GM to Expand Access to EV Charging with More than 40,000 Charging Stations Ford To Have One Of The Largest DC Fast-Charging Networks In US Volkswagen powers up the grid to take on Tesla Volkswagen-backed CAMS eyes deployment of 17,000 charging points in China by 2025 Circle K begins North American EV fast charger rollout, plans 200-site network by 2024 Porsche to build out its own network of EV charging stations Petro-Canada Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta E.On BP Volkswagen and BP partner to deploy up to 8,000 EV chargers across EU/UK Smatric Allego Podpoint Instavolt Fastned Total Nio Battery Swap Stations BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales Evie Tritium, DC-America Join Forces to Provide coast-to-coast EV charging network And Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Storage Batteries… Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions CATL BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Generac GM Energy Canadian Solar Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS Electriq Power Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bollore Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei Toyota ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium Alfen Quino Energy Gotion ZincFive Thanks, Mark Spiegel, Stanphyl Capital.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkJan 3rd, 2023

Tesla Delivery Wait Times Decline Substantially Worldwide – Shortseller

Stanphyl Capital letter to investors for the month ended November 30, 2022, discussing their short thesis for Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Despite big, margin-slashing price cuts in both China and Europe, Tesla delivery wait times worldwide have declined substantially, down to just one week in China while in the U.S. (where Musk’s Twitter boondoggle is rapidly […] Stanphyl Capital letter to investors for the month ended November 30, 2022, discussing their short thesis for Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Despite big, margin-slashing price cuts in both China and Europe, Tesla delivery wait times worldwide have declined substantially, down to just one week in China while in the U.S. (where Musk’s Twitter boondoggle is rapidly destroying the brand) Tesla is choking on Model 3 inventory and offers December Model Y delivery. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   While Europe’s backlog is expected to be completely gone by year-end. This means Tesla’s production capacity now outstrips its rate of incoming orders despite the new German and Texas factories producing at only around 10% of capacity! Expectations For Q4 Deliveries Meanwhile, combined deliveries for the last two quarters (Q2 & Q3 2022) were lower than those for the previous two quarters (Q4 2021 & Q1 2022). As Tesla slashes prices it will undoubtedly sell more cars (I expect Q4 deliveries to be in the range of around 400,000 vs. previous quarters in the 300,000s. Thanks to the cuts plus a rush to beat year-end expiring EV incentives in China, Germany and France), but any other car company can slash prices and do the same thing. (Welcome to the auto business, which currently sells for around 5x earnings!) Tesla’s apparent market saturation rate of around 1.6 million cars/year worldwide (at least until it slashes prices yet again!) is massively below its current factories’ production capacity, much less the bulls’ absurd expectations of adding a new factory every six months for the next ten years! For some valuation perspective, BMW sells around 2 million cars a year with very high margins (including the best electric SUV now on the market (the new iX), the best luxury EV( the new i7), and among the best small luxury EVs (the new i4), and has a market cap of around $59 billion. If Tesla grew annual deliveries to the size of BMW’s and had BMW-level margins, at BMW's current market cap it would sell for less than $19/share vs. this month's closing price in the $194s! (Remember: Tesla now has 3.16 billion shares outstanding!) Meanwhile, Elon Musk remains the most vile person ever to head a large-cap U.S. public company, and we remain short Tesla, the biggest bubble-stock in modern market history, because: It has a sliding share of the world’s EV market and a share of the overall auto market that’s less than 2%, yet a market cap almost as big the next 6 largest automakers (by market cap) combined. It has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of its electric car technology (which has now been equaled or surpassed by numerous competitors) and its previously proprietary Superchargers are being opened to everyone), while existing automakers—unlike Tesla­—have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably. Excluding working capital benefits and sunsetting emission credit sales Tesla generates only minimal free cash flow. Growth in sequential demand for Tesla’s cars is at a crawl relative to expectations. Elon Musk is a pathological liar. Tesla's Q3 Earnings In October Tesla claimed that it had Q3 GAAP earnings of around .87/share excluding sunsetting emission credit sales. If you believe that after viewing this chart (courtesy of Twitter user @Keubiko), I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn: Furthermore, Tesla’s minimal depreciation of its new factories appears fraudulently low, as does its warranty reserve. Even if you believe Tesla’s clearly nonsensical earnings number, it annualizes to only $3.48/share, which based on November’s closing price of $194.70 = a run-rate PE ratio of around 56 for a now slow-growing (or growing-but-margin-slashing) car company in an industry with a current average PE of around 5. Meanwhile, Tesla has objectively lost its “product edge,” with many competing cars now offering comparable or better real-world range, better interiors, similar or faster charging speeds and much better quality. (Tesla ranks near the bottom of Consumer Reports’ reliability survey while British consumer organization Which? found it to be one of the least reliable cars in existence.) Thus, due to competitors’ temporary production constraints, waiting times are now longer for many of Tesla’s direct EV competitors than they are for a Tesla. In fact, Tesla is likely now the second, third or fourth choice for many EV buyers, and only maintains its volume lead though a short-lived edge in production capacity that will disappear over the next 12 to 36 months as competitors rapidly increase the ability to produce their superior EVs. Tesla’s poorly-built Model Y faces current (or imminent) competition from the much better made (and often just better) electric Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Ford Mustang Mach E, Cadillac Lyriq, Nissan Ariya, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Chevrolet Blazer EV & $30,000 Equinox EV and Polestar 3. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, the great new BMW i4, the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 6 and Volkswagen Aero, and multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Porsche Taycan (the base model of which is now considerably less expensive than Tesla’s Model S) outsells the Model S, while the spectacular new BMW i7, Mercedes EQS, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make it look like a fast Yugo. And the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX, Mercedes EQS SUV and Audi Q8 eTron (as well as multiple new Chinese models) do the same to the Model X. Tesla Is Netflix Indeed, for years I’ve said “Tesla is Blackberry”—the maker of a first-generation version of a product that—once the market was proven—would be supplanted into niche obscurity by newer, better versions; now I can provide a much more recent analogy: Tesla is Netflix. For years Netflix had an absurd valuation based on its pioneering position in streaming media, but once it proved that such a market existed myriad competitors swarmed all over it, and this year the stock collapsed when we learned that not only is Netflix no longer in “hypergrowth” mode but for the first time since 2011 (when it transitioned from physical DVDs) it actually lost subscribers. I believe Musk knows that Tesla is “the next Netflix” (hence his recent “Twitter buying distraction”), with VW, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, BYD & other Chinese competitors. And, in a few years, Toyota & Honda, being the Disney, HBO Max, Amazon Prime, Peacock, Hulu, Paramount +, etc., of the electric car market, stealing Tesla’s share and eventually pounding its stock price down 90% or so from today’s, into the valuation of “just another car company.” Despite this obvious “writing on the wall,” many Tesla bulls sincerely believe that ten years from now the company will be twice the size of Volkswagen or Toyota, thereby selling around 20 million cars a year (up from the anticipated Q4 annualized run-rate of around 1.6 million); in fact in May Musk himself even raised this as a possibility. Setting aside the absurdity of selling that many cars into the limited market of Tesla’s high price points, the “logistical absurdity” of selling 20 million cars/year in ten years means that in addition to 2.4 million cars a year of sold-out existing claimed production capacity (once the German and Texas factories are fully operational). Tesla would have to add 35 more brand new 500,000 car/year factories with sold out production; i.e., a new factory approximately every single quarter for the next ten years! Only a Teslemming could be dumb enough to believe this! An Engineering Analysis Meanwhile, in June the NHTSA announced that its investigation of Tesla’s deadly Autopilot has expanded into “an engineering analysis,” the last required step before (finally!) demanding a full recall, and in October it was reported that this deadly scam is being investigated by both the SEC and the DOJ. The refund liability potential for Tesla for this is in the billions of dollars, and possibly even the tens of billions if a class action lawsuit proves that the cars involved were purchased solely due to the (fallacious) promise of “full self-driving.” And, of course, there will be a massive “valuation reappraisal” for Tesla’s stock as the world wakes up to the fact that Tesla’s so-called “autonomy technology” is deadly, trailing-edge garbage. In fact, the NHTSA has reported a slew of Autopilot-related deaths just since last year. For all Tesla deaths cited in the media—which is likely only a small fraction of those that have occurred—see TeslaDeaths.com. And Tesla has sold this trashy software for over six years now: …and still promotes it on its website via a completely fraudulent video! Want to see another Elon Musk/Tesla fraud summarized in a simple bar graph? In this recent Consumer Reports test, note which of these cars never comes close—in any environmental conditions—to meeting its claimed EPA range: Nothing Proprietary Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market some time in 2024 (as is now expected), even if Tesla makes some of its own,  other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone, and BMW has already announced it will buy them from CATL and EVE. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as by the time it’s in mass-production in 2024 it will enter a dogfight of a market. In fact, Ford’s terrific 2022 all-electric F-150 Lightning now has over 200,000 retail reservations (plus many more fleet reservations), GM has introduced its fantastic 2023 electric Silverado which already has nearly 200,000 reservations, Rivian’s pick-up has gotten excellent early reviews, and Ram will also be out with a great truck in 2024. Regarding safety, as noted earlier in this letter, Tesla continues to deceptively sell its hugely dangerous so-called “Autopilot” system, which Consumer Reports has completely eviscerated; God only knows how many more people this monstrosity unleashed on public roads will kill despite the NTSB condemning it. Elsewhere in safety, the Chinese government forced the recall of tens of thousands of Teslas for a dangerous suspension defect the company spent years trying to cover up, and Tesla has been hit by a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. for the same defect. Tesla also knowingly sold cars that it knew were a fire hazard and did the same with solar systems, and after initially refusing to do so voluntarily, it was forced to recall a dangerously defective touchscreen. In other words, when it comes to the safety of customers and innocent bystanders, Tesla is truly one of the most vile companies on Earth. Meanwhile the massive number of lawsuits of all types against the company continues to escalate. So Here Is Tesla’s Competition In Cars... (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo Porsche Macan Electric SUV Officially Coming in 2023 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen unveils ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz Electric Van Volkswagen unveils the ID. AERO sedan with 385 miles of range New sketch of 2025 Volkswagen ID.1 unveiled VW’s Cupra Born Volkswagen unveils $7.1B commitment to boost product line-up, R&D, mfg in N. America Audi Q8 e-tron electric SUV Audi e-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron electric SUV Audi A6 e-tron: 2023's new electric Tesla fighter spied Audi will expand EV lineup with electric A6 wagon Audi TT to be axed in 2023 for 'emotional', electric replacement Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV9 to land in US in 2023 with 300-miles range, $50,000 price Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS: the first electric vehicle in the luxury class 2023 Mercedes EQS SUV Is a Seven-Seat EV Flagship with up to 536 HP 2023 Mercedes EQE Electric Sedan Mercedes EQE SUV to rival BMW iX and Tesla Model X Mercedes EQC electric SUV available now in Europe & China Mercedes-Benz Launches the EQV, its First Fully-Electric Passenger Van Mercedes-Benz EQB Makes Its European Debut, US Sales Confirmed Mercedes-Benz unveils EQA electric SUV with 265 miles of range and ~$46,000 price Ford Mustang Mach-E Ford F-150 Lightning Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford unveils Lincoln Star electric SUV concept as it readies to add four new EVs by 2026 Chevrolet Blazer EV Chevrolet Equinox EV Chevrolet Bolt sedan, 259-mile range starting at $31,000 Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq GMC Electric Hummer Pick-Up and SUV GM electric Silverado pickup truck GMC Sierra EV Denali GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services GM & Honda Will Codevelop Affordable EVs Targeting Most Popular Vehicle Segments Two Jeep EVs to make U.S. debuts in 2024 BMW leads off EV offensive with iX3 BMW expands EV offerings with iX tech flagship and i4 sedan BMW i7 EV, with 600 hp, will be most powerful variant of new 7 Series flagship BMW iX1 Revealed With 313 HP, 272 Miles WLTP Range Renault-Nissan alliance plows $26B into EV blitz- will jointly launch 35 new EVs Nissan Ariya: All-Electric Crossover SUV Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now Nissan Unveils $18 Billion Electric-Vehicle Strategy Polestar 2 sedan Polestar 3 electric SUV Volvo XC40 Recharge electric SUV Volvo C40 Recharge electric crossover Volvo EX90 electric SUV Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises 'heart-of-the-market SUV' from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Chrysler to go all-EV by 2028 Honda, Sony to start premium EV deliveries in 2026 Honda pours $40 billion into electrification, targets 2 million EV production by 2030 Alfa Romeo's First Electric Car Will Arrive in 2024 Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Rivian electric pickup trucks & SUVs Maserati GranTurismo Debuts As Brand’s First EV With Three Motors, AWD Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota’s Electric bZ4X Goes On Sale in Spring 2022 Toyota will have lineup of 30 full EVs by 2030; Lexus will be all-electric brand Opel Corsa-e Opel expands EV lineup with battery-electric Astra Vauxhall Mokka electric Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV Skoda Enyaq electric coupe Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals BYD presents three BEVs for European market Nio expands into Europe and beyond Lucid Motors: Electric Luxury Cars Rolls-Royce Electric Spectre, Available 2023 Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Sono Sion Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China, Where Tesla’s EV Market Share Is Now Declining... BYD is #1 in Chinese EVs, selling FAR more than Tesla Volkswagen to boost Chinese EV capacity to 1m by 2023 Audi-FAW's $3.3 billion electric vehicle venture Nio Xpeng Motors Hozon/Neta Li Auto GAC Aion Leap Motors GM plans to launch over 15 EV models in China by 2025 Ford Mustang Mach-E Rolls Off Assembly Line in China Cheaper than Tesla: Honda takes aim at China's middle class BMW i3 Debuts As All-Electric 3 Series Only For China Hongqi Geely Zeekr Premium EVs by Geely Baidu and Geely put nearly $400 million more into their electric car venture China-made Mercedes-Benz EQE hits market BAIC Hyundai, BAIC Motor to inject $942 mn in China JV for EVs Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Lexus RZ 450e Steers For China Dongfeng SAIC Renault launches sales of first EV in China Nissan expects 40% of sales in China to be electrified by 2026 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weimar Chery Seres Enovate Singulato JAC Motors Iconiq Motors Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia Human Horizons Xiaomi announces plans for four electric vehicle models Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Autonomous Driving; The Independents All Have Deals With Major OEMs... Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Waymo operates robotaxis NOW GM’s Cruise operates robotaxis NOW Mobileye operates driverless test fleets in Europe and the U.S. Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Ford’s hands-free “Blue Cruise” Mercedes Launches SAE Level 3 Drive Pilot System Honda Legend Sedan with Level 3 Autonomy Now Available in Japan Motional (Hyundai) & Uber Announce Autonomous Ride-hail and Delivery Services Stellantis Acquires aiMotive, a Leading Autonomous Driving Start-up Amazon’s Zoox will test its autonomous vehicles on Seattle’s rainy streets Baidu Apollo starts fully autonomous test in Shanghai Driverless Demo Zone Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Pony.ai approved for public driverless robotaxi service in Beijing Here’s Where Tesla’s Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells... Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Northvolt Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe GM’s Ultium GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems SK On and Ford form BlueOval SK, an EV battery joint venture Hyundai teams with SK to make batteries for U.S.-built EVs Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and Samsung SDI to Invest Over $2.5B in Battery Production Plant in United States Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Mercedes-Benz and Sila achieve breakthrough with high silicon automotive battery Toyota to invest $5.3bn to make EV batteries in U.S. and Japan Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Honda Motor, LG Energy to build $4.4 bln U.S. EV battery plant Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries UK companies AMTE Power and Britishvolt plan $4.9 billion investment in battery plants Foxconn breaks ground on first EV battery plant Envision-AESC ONE EVE Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Morrow Here's Tesla's Competition In Charging Networks... Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America EVgo Chargepoint Ionity Europe Shell 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM, EVgo, and Pilot will install 2,000 fast chargers at travel centers GM to Expand Access to EV Charging with More than 40,000 Charging Stations Volkswagen powers up the grid to take on Tesla Volkswagen-backed CAMS eyes deployment of 17,000 charging points in China by 2025 Circle K begins North American EV fast charger rollout, plans 200-site network by 2024 Porsche to build out its own network of EV charging stations Petro-Canada Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta E.On BP Volkswagen and BP partner to deploy up to 8,000 EV chargers across EU/UK Smatric Allego Podpoint Instavolt Fastned Total Nio Battery Swap Stations BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales Evie Tritium, DC-America Join Forces to Provide coast-to-coast EV charging network And Here's Tesla's Competition In Storage Batteries... Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions CATL BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Generac GM Energy Canadian Solar Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS Electriq Power Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bollore Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei Toyota ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium Alfen Quino Energy Thanks, Mark Spiegel Stanphyl Capital.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkDec 1st, 2022

Tesla Posted Nonsensical Earnings Numbers In Q3 – Shortseller

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended October 31, 2022, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). The Tesla “hypergrowth” story is over. Here are the company’s most recent quarterly deliveries: Q4 ‘21: 309,000 Q1 ‘22: 310,000 Q2 2022 & Q3’s averaged (to account for 70,000 Q2 cars built & delivered in Q3 due […] Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended October 31, 2022, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). The Tesla “hypergrowth” story is over. Here are the company’s most recent quarterly deliveries: Q4 ‘21: 309,000 Q1 ‘22: 310,000 Q2 2022 & Q3’s averaged (to account for 70,000 Q2 cars built & delivered in Q3 due to Q2’s China factory closing): 300,000 if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   Find A Qualified Financial Advisor Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn't have to be hard. SmartAsset's free tool matches you with up to 3 fiduciary financial advisors in your area in 5 minutes. Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests. If you're ready to be matched with local advisors that can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now. Tesla's Production Capacity Is Outstripping Incoming Orders Tesla delivery wait times worldwide are now declining substantially and its production capacity is now outstripping its rate of incoming orders despite running its China factory below capacity and the new German and Texas factories producing at only around 10% of their capacity. This means one thing and one thing only: big, margin-slashing Tesla price cuts were needed to resume meaningful unit delivery growth, and in October they arrived in China. I expect Europe will soon follow, and then perhaps the U.S. in 2023. Sure, if Tesla slashes prices enough it will undoubtedly be able to sell more cars, but so can any other car company. Welcome to the auto business, which sells for less than 10x earnings! For some valuation perspective regarding this data, BMW sells around two million cars a year (including the best electric SUV now on the market, the new iX) with very high margins, and has a market cap of around $52 billion. Meanwhile, Tesla is now barely growing from around 1.3 million cars a year. If Tesla had BMW's market cap (at which point it would still be grossly overpriced, in my opinion) it would sell for only around $16/share vs. this month's closing price in the $227s! Meanwhile, Elon Musk remains the most vile person ever to head a large-cap U.S. public company, and we remain short Tesla, the biggest bubble-stock in modern market history, because: It has a sliding share of the world’s EV market and a share of the overall auto market that’s only around 1.7%, yet a market cap greater than the next 9 largest automakers (by market cap) combined. It has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of its electric car technology (which has now been equaled or surpassed by numerous competitors) and its previously proprietary Superchargers are being opened to everyone), while existing automakers—unlike Tesla­—have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably. Excluding working capital benefits and sunsetting emission credit sales Tesla generates only minimal free cash flow. Growth in sequential demand for Tesla’s cars is at a crawl relative to expectations. Elon Musk is a pathological liar. In October Tesla claimed that it had Q3 diluted GAAP earnings of .95/share. If you believe that after viewing this chart (courtesy of Twitter user @Keubiko), I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn: Furthermore, Tesla’s minimal depreciation of its new factories appears fraudulently low, as does its warranty reserve. Even if you believe Tesla’s clearly nonsensical earnings number, it annualizes to only $3.80/share, which based on October’s closing price of $227.54 = a PE ratio of around 60 for a now slow-growing car company in an industry with a current average PE of around 5. Meanwhile, Tesla has objectively lost its “product edge,” with many competing cars now offering comparable or better real-world range, better interiors, similar or faster charging speeds and much better quality. (Tesla ranks second-to-last in Consumer Reports’ reliability survey while British consumer organization Which? found it to be one of the least reliable cars in existence.) Thus, due to competitors’ temporary production constraints, waiting times are now longer for many of Tesla’s direct EV competitors than they are for a Tesla. In fact, Tesla is likely now the second, third or fourth choice for many EV buyers, and only maintains its volume lead though a short-lived edge in production capacity that will disappear over the next 12 to 36 months as competitors rapidly increase the ability to produce their superior EVs. Tesla’s poorly-built Model Y faces current (or imminent) competition from the much better made (and often just better) electric Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Ford Mustang Mach E, Cadillac Lyriq, Nissan Ariya, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Chevrolet Blazer EV & $30,000 Equinox EV and Polestar 3. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, the great new BMW i4, the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 6 and Volkswagen Aero, and multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Porsche Taycan (the base model of which is now considerably less expensive than Tesla’s Model S) outsells the Model S, while the spectacular Mercedes EQS, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make it look like a fast Yugo, and the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX and Mercedes EQS SUV (as well as multiple new Chinese models) do the same to the Model X. Tesla Is Netflix Indeed, for years I’ve said “Tesla is Blackberry”—the maker of a first-generation version of a product that—once the market was proven—would be supplanted into niche obscurity by newer, better versions; now I can provide a much more recent analogy: Tesla is Netflix. For years Netflix had an absurd valuation based on its pioneering position in streaming media, but once it proved that such a market existed myriad competitors swarmed all over it, and this year the stock collapsed when we learned that not only is Netflix no longer in “hypergrowth” mode but for the first time since 2011 (when it transitioned from physical DVDs) it actually lost subscribers. I believe Musk knows that Tesla is “the next Netflix” (hence his recent “Twitter buying distraction”), with VW, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, BYD & other Chinese competitors. And, in a few years, Toyota & Honda, being the Disney, HBO Max, Amazon Prime, Peacock, Hulu, Paramount +, etc., of the electric car market, stealing Tesla’s share and eventually pounding its stock price down 95% or so from today’s, into the valuation of “just another car company.” Despite this obvious “writing on the wall,” many Tesla bulls sincerely believe that ten years from now the company will be twice the size of Volkswagen or Toyota, thereby selling around 20 million cars a year (up from the current run-rate of around 1.3 million); in fact in May Musk himself even raised this as a possibility. Setting aside the absurdity of selling that many cars into the limited market of Tesla’s high price points, the “logistical absurdity” of selling 20 million cars/year in ten years means that in addition to 2 million cars a year of sold-out existing claimed production capacity (once the German and Texas factories are fully operational) vs. the current stalled-out rate of 1.3 million. Tesla would have to add 36 more brand new 500,000 car/year factories with sold out production; i.e., a new factory nearly every single quarter for the next ten years! Only a Teslemming could be dumb enough to believe this! Meanwhile, in June the NHTSA announced that its investigation of Tesla’s deadly Autopilot has expanded into “an engineering analysis,” the last required step before (finally!) demanding a full recall, and in October it was reported that this deadly scam is being investigated by both the SEC and the DOJ. The refund liability potential for Tesla for this is in the billions of dollars, and possibly even the tens of billions if a class action lawsuit proves that the cars involved were purchased solely due to the (fallacious) promise of “full self-driving.” And, of course, there will be a massive “valuation reappraisal” for Tesla’s stock as the world wakes up to the fact that Tesla’s so-called “autonomy technology” is deadly, trailing-edge garbage. In fact, in October the NHTSA reported that there were at least 10 more Autopilot-related deaths just since May. For all Tesla deaths cited in the media—which is likely only a small fraction of those that have occurred—see TeslaDeaths.com. And Tesla has sold this trashy software for over six years now: …and still promotes it on its website via a completely fraudulent video! Want to see another Elon Musk/Tesla fraud summarized in a simple bar graph? In this recent Consumer Reports test, note which of these cars never comes close—in any environmental conditions—to meeting its claimed EPA range: Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market some time in 2024 (as is now expected), even if Tesla makes some of its own, other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone, and BMW has already announced it will buy them from CATL and EVE. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as it will enter a dogfight of a market. In fact, Ford’s terrific 2022 all-electric F-150 Lightning now has over 200,000 retail reservations (plus many more fleet reservations), GM has introduced its fantastic 2023 electric Silverado which already has nearly 200,000 reservations, Rivian’s pick-up has gotten excellent early reviews, and Ram will be out with a great one in 2024. Regarding safety, as noted earlier in this letter, Tesla continues to deceptively sell its hugely dangerous so-called “Autopilot” system, which Consumer Reports has completely eviscerated; God only knows how many more people this monstrosity unleashed on public roads will kill despite the NTSB condemning it. Elsewhere in safety, the Chinese government forced the recall of tens of thousands of Teslas for a dangerous suspension defect the company spent years trying to cover up, and Tesla has been hit by a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. for the same defect. Tesla also knowingly sold cars that it knew were a fire hazard and did the same with solar systems, and after initially refusing to do so voluntarily, it was forced to recall a dangerously defective touchscreen. In other words, when it comes to the safety of customers and innocent bystanders, Tesla is truly one of the most vile companies on Earth. Meanwhile the massive number of lawsuits of all types against the company continues to escalate. So Here Is Tesla’s Competition In Cars... (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo Porsche Macan Electric SUV Officially Coming in 2023 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen unveils ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz Electric Van Volkswagen unveils the ID. AERO sedan with 385 miles of range New sketch of 2025 Volkswagen ID.1 unveiled VW’s Cupra Born Volkswagen unveils $7.1B commitment to boost product line-up, R&D, mfg in N. America Audi e-tron Audi e-tron Sportback Audi E-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron confirmed for 2022 launch 2022 Audi A6 e-tron set to take on Tesla Audi will expand EV lineup with electric A6 wagon Audi TT to be axed in 2023 for 'emotional', electric replacement Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV9 to land in US in 2023 with 300-miles range, $50,000 price Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS: the first electric vehicle in the luxury class 2023 Mercedes EQS SUV Is a Seven-Seat EV Flagship with up to 536 HP 2023 Mercedes EQE Electric Sedan Mercedes EQE SUV to rival BMW iX and Tesla Model X Mercedes EQC electric SUV available now in Europe & China Mercedes-Benz Launches the EQV, its First Fully-Electric Passenger Van Mercedes-Benz EQB Makes Its European Debut, US Sales Confirmed Mercedes-Benz unveils EQA electric SUV with 265 miles of range and ~$46,000 price Ford Mustang Mach-E Ford F-150 Lightning Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford unveils Lincoln Star electric SUV concept as it readies to add four new EVs by 2026 Polestar 2 sedan Polestar 3 SUV With 372-Mile Range Coming Late 2022 Volvo XC40 Recharge Volvo C40 Recharge Chevrolet Blazer EV Chevrolet Equinox EV Chevrolet Bolt sedan, 259-mile range starting at $31,000 Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq GMC Electric Hummer Pick-Up and SUV GM electric Silverado pickup truck GMC Sierra EV Denali GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services GM & Honda Will Codevelop Affordable EVs Targeting Most Popular Vehicle Segments Two Jeep EVs to make U.S. debuts in 2024 Honda, Sony to start premium EV deliveries in 2026 Honda pours $40 billion into electrification, targets 2 million EV production by 2030 BMW leads off EV offensive with iX3 BMW expands EV offerings with iX tech flagship and i4 sedan BMW i7 EV, with 600 hp, will be most powerful variant of new 7 Series flagship BMW iX1 Revealed With 313 HP, 272 Miles WLTP Range Renault-Nissan alliance plows $26B into EV blitz- will jointly launch 35 new EVs Nissan vows to hop back on EV podium with Ariya Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now Nissan Unveils $18 Billion Electric-Vehicle Strategy Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises 'heart-of-the-market SUV' from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Chrysler to go all-EV by 2028 Alfa Romeo's First Electric Car Will Arrive in 2024 Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Rivian R1T Is the Most Remarkable Pickup We’ve Ever Driven Maserati GranTurismo Debuts As Brand’s First EV With Three Motors, AWD Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota’s Electric bZ4X Goes On Sale in Spring 2022 Toyota will have lineup of 30 full EVs by 2030; Lexus will be all-electric brand Opel sees electric Corsa as key EV entry 2021 Vauxhall Mokka revealed as EV with sharp looks, massive changes Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV offers range of power, battery sizes Electric Skoda Enyaq coupe to muscle-in on Tesla Model 3 Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals BYD presents three BEVs for European market Nio expands into Europe and beyond The Lucid Air Achieves an Estimated EPA Range of 517 Miles on a Single Charge Rolls-Royce Electric Spectre, Available 2023 Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Meet the Canoo, a Subscription-Only EV Pod Coming in 2021 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Former Saab factory gets new life building solar-powered Sono Sion electric cars Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China, Where Tesla’s EV Market Share Is Now Declining... BYD is #1 in Chinese EVs, selling FAR more than Tesla Volkswagen to boost Chinese EV capacity to 1m by 2023 Audi-FAW's $3.3 billion electric vehicle venture Nio Xpeng Motors Hozon/Neta Li Auto GAC Aion Leap Motors GM launches Ultium EV production platform in China Ford Mustang Mach-E Rolls Off Assembly Line in China Cheaper than Tesla: Honda takes aim at China's middle class BMW i3 Debuts As All-Electric 3 Series Only For China Hongqi Geely Zeekr Premium EVs by Geely Baidu and Geely put nearly $400 million more into their electric car venture China-made Mercedes-Benz EQE hits market BAIC Hyundai, BAIC Motor to inject $942 mn in China JV for EVs Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Lexus RZ 450e Steers For China Dongfeng SAIC Renault launches sales of first EV in China Nissan expects 40% of sales in China to be electrified by 2026 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weimar Chery Seres Enovate Singulato JAC Motors Iconiq Motors Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia Human Horizons Xiaomi announces plans for four electric vehicle models Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Autonomous Driving; The Independents All Have Deals With Major OEMs... Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Waymo operates robotaxis NOW GM’s Cruise operates robotaxis NOW Mobileye operates driverless test fleets in Europe and the U.S. Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Ford’s hands-free “Blue Cruise” Mercedes Launches SAE Level 3 Drive Pilot System Honda Legend Sedan with Level 3 Autonomy Now Available in Japan Motional (Hyundai) & Uber Announce Autonomous Ride-hail and Delivery Services Amazon’s Zoox will test its autonomous vehicles on Seattle’s rainy streets Baidu Apollo starts fully autonomous test in Shanghai Driverless Demo Zone Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Pony.ai approved for public driverless robotaxi service in Beijing Here’s Where Tesla’s Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells... Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Northvolt Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe GM’s Ultium GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems SK On and Ford form BlueOval SK, an EV battery joint venture BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and Samsung SDI to Invest Over $2.5B in Battery Production Plant in United States Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Mercedes-Benz and Sila achieve breakthrough with high silicon automotive battery Toyota to invest $5.3bn to make EV batteries in U.S. and Japan Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Honda Motor, LG Energy to build $4.4 bln U.S. EV battery plant Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries UK companies AMTE Power and Britishvolt plan $4.9 billion investment in battery plants Foxconn breaks ground on first EV battery plant Envision-AESC ONE EVE Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries Morrow Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Charging Networks... Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America EVgo Chargepoint Ionity Europe Shell 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM, EVgo, and Pilot will install 2,000 fast chargers at travel centers GM to Expand Access to EV Charging with More than 40,000 Charging Stations Volkswagen powers up the grid to take on Tesla Volkswagen-backed CAMS eyes deployment of 17,000 charging points in China by 2025 Circle K begins North American EV fast charger rollout, plans 200-site network by 2024 Porsche to build out its own network of EV charging stations Petro-Canada Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta E.On BP Volkswagen and BP partner to deploy up to 8,000 EV chargers across EU/UK Smatric Allego Podpoint Instavolt Fastned Total Nio Battery Swap Stations BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales Evie Tritium, DC-America Join Forces to Provide coast-to-coast EV charging network And Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Storage Batteries... Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions CATL BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Generac GM Energy Canadian Solar Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS Electriq Power Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bollore Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei Toyota ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium Alfen Quino Energy Thanks, Stanphyl Capital.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkNov 1st, 2022

Tesla Price Cuts Are Needed To Resume Unit Delivery Growth – Shortseller

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended September 30, 2022, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Want to see a typical Elon Musk/Tesla fraud summarized in a simple bar graph? In this recent Consumer Reports test, note which of these cars never comes close—in any environmental conditions—to meeting its claimed EPA range: Q2 […] Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended September 30, 2022, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Want to see a typical Elon Musk/Tesla fraud summarized in a simple bar graph? In this recent Consumer Reports test, note which of these cars never comes close—in any environmental conditions—to meeting its claimed EPA range: if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   Want another example of what a fraudster Musk is? “Honest discovery” is a cornerstone of the American legal system. Here’s how Musk’s behaving in his ongoing Twitter trial: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: If you think any financial statement emanating from this guy is honest, you’re among the dumbest f*cks on planet Earth. If you’re an institutional investor and long a Musk-run company, you should be FIRED. Meanwhile, the Tesla “hypergrowth” story is over. Here are the company’s most recent quarterly deliveries: Q4 ‘21: 309,000 Q1 ‘22: 310,000 Q2 2022 & Q3’s estimate averaged (to account for 70,000 Q2 cars built & delivered in Q3 due to Q2’s China factory closing): 309,000 Production Capacity Outstrips Incoming Orders Tesla delivery wait times worldwide are now declining substantially (down to just one week in China where it now runs its factory below capacity). Tesla’s production capacity is now outstripping its rate of incoming orders despite the new German and Texas factories producing at only around 10% of their capacity! This means one thing and one thing only: big, margin-slashing Tesla price cuts are needed to resume meaningful unit delivery growth, and I expect we’ll see them within weeks. Sure, if Tesla slashes prices enough it will undoubtedly be able to use its excess capacity, but so can any other car company. Welcome to the auto business, which currently sells for around 5x earnings! Meanwhile, Elon Musk remains the most vile person ever to head a large-cap U.S. public company, and we remain short Tesla, the biggest bubble-stock in modern market history, because: It has a sliding share of the world’s EV market and a share of the overall auto market that’s only around 1.5%, yet a market cap greater than the next 14 largest automakers (by market cap) combined despite selling only around 2% of the cars they do. It has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of its electric car technology (which has now been equaled or surpassed by numerous competitors) and its previously proprietary Superchargers are being opened to everyone), while existing automakers—unlike Tesla­—have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably. Excluding working capital benefits and sunsetting emission credit sales Tesla generates only minimal free cash flow. Growth in sequential demand for Tesla’s cars is at a crawl relative to expectations. Elon Musk is a pathological liar. I estimate that Tesla’s 2022 GAAP earnings will be only around $3/share after adjusting for emission credit sales that will soon go away when other auto manufacturers enough EVs of their own. Thus, slow-growth Tesla has a PE ratio of around 88 in an industry with an average current multiple of around 5. No More Product Edge Meanwhile, Tesla has objectively lost its “product edge,” with many competing cars now offering comparable or better real-world range, better interiors, similar or faster charging speeds and much better quality. (Tesla ranks second-to-last in Consumer Reports’ reliability survey while British consumer organization Which? found it to be one of the least reliable cars in existence.) Thus, due to competitors’ temporary production constraints, waiting times are now longer for many of Tesla’s direct EV competitors than they are for a Tesla. In fact, Tesla is likely now the second, third or fourth choice for many EV buyers, and only maintains its volume lead though a short-lived edge in production capacity that will disappear over the next 12 to 36 months as competitors rapidly increase the ability to produce their superior EVs. Tesla’s poorly-built Model Y faces current (or imminent) competition from the much better made (and often just better) electric Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Ford Mustang Mach E, Cadillac Lyriq, Nissan Ariya, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Chevrolet Blazer EV & $30,000 Equinox EV and Polestar 3. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, the great new BMW i4, the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 6 and Volkswagen Aero, and multiple local competitors in China. And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Porsche Taycan (the base model of which is now considerably less expensive than Tesla’s Model S) outsells the Model S, while the spectacular Mercedes EQS, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make it look like a fast Yugo, and the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX and Mercedes EQS SUV (as well as multiple new Chinese models) do the same to the Model X. Tesla Is Netflix Indeed, for years I’ve said “Tesla is Blackberry”—the maker of a first-generation version of a product that—once the market was proven—would be supplanted into niche obscurity by newer, better versions; now I can provide a much more recent analogy: Tesla is Netflix. For years Netflix had an absurd valuation based on its pioneering position in streaming media, but once it proved that such a market existed myriad competitors swarmed all over it, and this year the stock collapsed when we learned that not only is Netflix no longer in “hypergrowth” mode but for the first time since 2011 (when it transitioned from physical DVDs) it actually lost subscribers. I believe Musk knows that Tesla is “the next Netflix” (hence his recent “Twitter buying distraction”), with VW, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, BYD & other Chinese competitors and, in a few years, Toyota & Honda, being the Disney, HBO Max, Amazon Prime, Peacock, Hulu, Paramount +, etc., of the electric car market, stealing Tesla’s share and eventually pounding its stock price down 95% or so from today’s, into the valuation of “just another car company.” Despite this obvious “writing on the wall,” many Tesla bulls sincerely believe that ten years from now the company will be twice the size of Volkswagen or Toyota, thereby selling around 20 million cars a year (up from the current run-rate of around 1.3 million); in fact in May Musk himself even raised this as a possibility. Setting aside the absurdity of selling that many cars into the limited market of Tesla’s high price points, the “logistical absurdity” of selling 20 million cars/year in ten years means that in addition to 2 million cars a year of sold-out existing claimed production capacity (once the German and Texas factories are fully operational) vs. the current stalled-out rate of 1.3 million. Tesla would have to add 36 more brand new 500,000 car/year factories with sold out production; i.e., a new factory nearly every single quarter for the next ten years! Only a Teslemming could be dumb enough to believe this! Meanwhile, in July the head of Tesla’s “self-driving” program quit, while in June the NHTSA announced that its investigation of Tesla’s deadly Autopilot has expanded into “an engineering analysis,” the last required step before (finally!) demanding a full recall. The refund liability potential for Tesla for this is in the billions of dollars, and possibly even the tens of billions if a class action lawsuit proves that the cars involved were purchased solely due to the (fallacious) promise of “full self-driving.” And, of course, there will be a massive “valuation reappraisal” for Tesla’s stock as the world wakes up to the fact that Tesla’s so-called “autonomy technology” is just trailing-edge garbage. As of July the NHTA was investigating 48 crashes involving autonomous driving systems, 39 of which—and all the deaths but one—involve Tesla. (For all Tesla deaths cited in the media—which is likely only a small fraction of those that have occurred—see TeslaDeaths.com.) And Tesla has sold this trashy software for six years now: …and still promotes it on its website via a completely fraudulent video! Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market some time in 2024 (as is now expected), even if Tesla makes some of its own, other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone, and BMW has already announced it will buy them from CATL and EVE. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as it will enter a dogfight of a market; in fact, Ford’s terrific 2022 all-electric F-150 Lightning now has over 200,000 retail reservations (plus many more fleet reservations), GM has introduced its fantastic 2023 electric Silverado which already has nearly 200,000 reservations, Rivian’s pick-up has gotten excellent early reviews, and Ram will be out with a great one in 2024. Regarding safety, as noted earlier in this letter, Tesla continues to deceptively sell its hugely dangerous so-called “Autopilot” system, which Consumer Reports has completely eviscerated; God only knows how many more people this monstrosity unleashed on public roads will kill despite the NTSB condemning it. Elsewhere in safety, the Chinese government forced the recall of tens of thousands of Teslas for a dangerous suspension defect the company spent years trying to cover up, and Tesla has been hit by a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. for the same defect. Tesla also knowingly sold cars that it knew were a fire hazard and did the same with solar systems, and after initially refusing to do so voluntarily, it was forced to recall a dangerously defective touchscreen. In other words, when it comes to the safety of customers and innocent bystanders, Tesla is truly one of the most vile companies on Earth. Meanwhile the massive number of lawsuits of all types against the company continues to escalate. So Here Is Tesla’s Competition In Cars... (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo Porsche Macan Electric SUV Officially Coming in 2023 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen unveils ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz Electric Van Volkswagen unveils the ID. AERO sedan with 385 miles of range New sketch of 2025 Volkswagen ID.1 unveiled VW’s Cupra Born Volkswagen unveils $7.1B commitment to boost product line-up, R&D, mfg in N. America Audi e-tron Audi e-tron Sportback Audi E-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron confirmed for 2022 launch 2022 Audi A6 e-tron set to take on Tesla Audi will expand EV lineup with electric A6 wagon Audi TT to be axed in 2023 for 'emotional', electric replacement Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV9 to land in US in 2023 with 300-miles range, $50,000 price Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS: the first electric vehicle in the luxury class 2023 Mercedes EQS SUV Is a Seven-Seat EV Flagship with up to 536 HP 2023 Mercedes EQE Electric Sedan Mercedes EQE SUV to rival BMW iX and Tesla Model X Mercedes EQC electric SUV available now in Europe & China Mercedes-Benz Launches the EQV, its First Fully-Electric Passenger Van Mercedes-Benz EQB Makes Its European Debut, US Sales Confirmed Mercedes-Benz unveils EQA electric SUV with 265 miles of range and ~$46,000 price Ford Mustang Mach-E Ford F-150 Lightning Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford unveils Lincoln Star electric SUV concept as it readies to add four new EVs by 2026 Polestar 2 sedan Polestar 3 SUV With 372-Mile Range Coming Late 2022 Volvo XC40 Recharge Volvo C40 Recharge Chevrolet Blazer EV Chevrolet Equinox EV Chevrolet Bolt sedan, 259-mile range starting at $31,000 Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq GMC Electric Hummer Pick-Up and SUV GM electric Silverado pickup truck GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services GM & Honda Will Codevelop Affordable EVs Targeting Most Popular Vehicle Segments Two Jeep EVs to make U.S. debuts in 2024 Honda pours $40 billion into electrification, targets 2 million EV production by 2030 Honda and Sony finalize 50-50 joint venture to build EVs in 2025 BMW leads off EV offensive with iX3 BMW expands EV offerings with iX tech flagship and i4 sedan BMW i7 EV, with 600 hp, will be most powerful variant of new 7 Series flagship BMW iX1 Revealed With 313 HP, 272 Miles WLTP Range Renault-Nissan alliance plows $26B into EV blitz- will jointly launch 35 new EVs Nissan vows to hop back on EV podium with Ariya Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now Nissan Unveils $18 Billion Electric-Vehicle Strategy Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises 'heart-of-the-market SUV' from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Chrysler to go all-EV by 2028 Alfa Romeo's First Electric Car Will Arrive in 2024 Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Rivian R1T Is the Most Remarkable Pickup We’ve Ever Driven Maserati going fully electric by 2030 -all vehicles will offer a BEV version by 2025 Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota’s Electric bZ4X Goes On Sale in Spring 2022 Toyota will have lineup of 30 full EVs by 2030; Lexus will be all-electric brand Honda and Sony to build, sell EVs by 2025 Opel sees electric Corsa as key EV entry 2021 Vauxhall Mokka revealed as EV with sharp looks, massive changes Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV offers range of power, battery sizes Electric Skoda Enyaq coupe to muscle-in on Tesla Model 3 Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals BYD presents three BEVs for European market Nio expands into Europe and beyond The Lucid Air Achieves an Estimated EPA Range of 517 Miles on a Single Charge Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 All-electric Rolls-Royce Spectre to launch in 2023 – firm to be EV-only by 2030 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Meet the Canoo, a Subscription-Only EV Pod Coming in 2021 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Former Saab factory gets new life building solar-powered Sono Sion electric cars Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China, Where Tesla’s EV Market Share Is Now Declining... BYD is #1 in Chinese EVs, selling FAR more than Tesla Volkswagen to boost Chinese EV capacity to 1m by 2023 Audi-FAW's $3.3 billion electric vehicle venture Nio Xpeng Motors Hozon/Neta Li Auto GAC Aion Leap Motors GM launches Ultium EV production platform in China Ford Mustang Mach-E Rolls Off Assembly Line in China Cheaper than Tesla: Honda takes aim at China's middle class BMW i3 Debuts As All-Electric 3 Series Only For China Hongqi Geely Zeekr Premium EVs by Geely Baidu and Geely put nearly $400 million more into their electric car venture China-made Mercedes-Benz EQE hits market BAIC Hyundai, BAIC Motor to inject $942 mn in China JV for EVs Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Lexus RZ 450e Steers For China Dongfeng SAIC Renault launches sales of first EV in China Nissan expects 40% of sales in China to be electrified by 2026 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weimar Chery Seres Enovate Singulato JAC Motors Iconiq Motors Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia Human Horizons Xiaomi announces plans for four electric vehicle models Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Autonomous Driving; The Independents All Have Deals With Major OEMs... Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Waymo operates robotaxis NOW GM’s Cruise operates robotaxis NOW Argo AI (owned by Ford & VW) Begins Driverless Vehicle Operations in Miami & Austin Mobileye operates driverless test fleets in Europe and the U.S. Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Ford’s hands-free “Blue Cruise” Mercedes Launches SAE Level 3 Drive Pilot System Honda Legend Sedan with Level 3 Autonomy Now Available in Japan Hyundai + Motional Bringing IONIQ 5 robotaxis to the streets from 2023 Amazon’s Zoox will test its autonomous vehicles on Seattle’s rainy streets Baidu Apollo starts fully autonomous test in Shanghai Driverless Demo Zone Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Pony.ai approved for public driverless robotaxi service in Beijing Here’s Where Tesla’s Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells... Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Northvolt Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe GM’s Ultium GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems SK On and Ford form BlueOval SK, an EV battery joint venture BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and Samsung SDI to Invest Over $2.5B in Battery Production Plant in United States Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Mercedes-Benz and Sila achieve breakthrough with high silicon automotive battery Toyota to invest $5.3bn to make EV batteries in U.S. and Japan Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Honda Motor, LG Energy to build $4.4 bln U.S. EV battery plant Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries UK companies AMTE Power and Britishvolt plan $4.9 billion investment in battery plants Foxconn breaks ground on first EV battery plant Envision EVE Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries Morrow Here's Tesla's Competition In Charging Networks... Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America EVgo Chargepoint Ionity Europe Shell 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM, EVgo, and Pilot will install 2,000 fast chargers at travel centers GM to Expand Access to EV Charging with More than 40,000 Charging Stations Volkswagen powers up the grid to take on Tesla Volkswagen-backed CAMS eyes deployment of 17,000 charging points in China by 2025 Circle K begins North American EV fast charger rollout, plans 200-site network by 2024 Porsche to build out its own network of EV charging stations Petro-Canada Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta E.On BP Volkswagen and BP partner to deploy up to 8,000 EV chargers across EU/UK Smatric Allego Podpoint Instavolt Fastned Total Nio Battery Swap Stations BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales Evie And Here's Tesla's Competition In Storage Batteries... Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions CATL BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Generac Canadian Solar Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS Electriq Power Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bollore Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei Toyota ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium Alfen Thanks, Mark Spiegel.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkOct 4th, 2022

The Tesla “Hypergrowth” Story Is Over – Shortseller

Stanphyl Capital letter to investors for the month ended August 31, 2022, discussing their short thesis for Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). It’s becoming increasingly obvious that the Tesla “hypergrowth” story is over. Here are the company’s most recent quarterly deliveries: Q4 ‘21: 309,000 Q1 ‘22: 310,000 Q2 ‘22 & Q3’s estimate averaged to account for pent-up […] Stanphyl Capital letter to investors for the month ended August 31, 2022, discussing their short thesis for Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). It’s becoming increasingly obvious that the Tesla “hypergrowth” story is over. Here are the company’s most recent quarterly deliveries: Q4 ‘21: 309,000 Q1 ‘22: 310,000 Q2 ‘22 & Q3’s estimate averaged to account for pent-up Q3 demand from Q2’s China factory closing: 312,000. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   Tesla's Production Capacity Is Outstripping Incoming Orders  Tesla delivery wait times worldwide are now declining substantially, which by definition means that its newly expanded production capacity is outstripping its rate of incoming orders despite the new German and Texas factories producing at only around 20% of capacity! This means one thing and one thing only: big, margin-slashing Tesla price cuts are needed to resume meaningful unit delivery growth, and in fact in late August the first such cut happened, with Tesla introducing in Europe a new rear-wheel drive Model Y that sells for as much as $20,000 less than the cheapest model (an all-wheel drive version) available here in the U.S. Sure, if Tesla slashes prices enough it will undoubtedly be able to use its excess capacity, but so can any other car company. Welcome to the auto business, which currently sells for around 5x earnings! Meanwhile, Elon Musk remains the most vile person ever to head a large-cap U.S. public company, and we remain short Tesla, the biggest bubble-stock in modern market history, because: It has a sliding share of the world’s EV market and a share of the overall auto market that’s only around 1.5%, yet a market cap greater than the next 13 largest automakers (by market cap) combined despite selling only around 2% of the cars they do. It has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of its electric car technology (which has now been equaled or surpassed by numerous competitors) and its previously proprietary Superchargers are being opened to everyone), while existing automakers—unlike Tesla­—have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably. Excluding working capital benefits and sunsetting emission credit sales Tesla generates only minimal free cash flow. Growth in sequential demand for Tesla’s cars is at a crawl relative to expectations. Elon Musk is a pathological liar. In July Tesla reported a terrible Q2, with deliveries down 26% from Q1 (which itself showed no growth over Q4). However, Q2’s sales decrease was due to a monthlong COVID-related closing of Tesla’s Shanghai factory, and thus that month of pent-up demand will undoubtedly make Q3’s figure significantly better than it otherwise would be (which is why I averaged the two figures a few paragraphs above). In Q2 Tesla generated only $621 million in stated free cash flow, yet that included a sequential increase in payables (and decrease in receivables) despite a $1.8 billion decrease in revenue! (In other words, Tesla didn’t pay some of its bills!) Additionally, there was a $106M operating cash flow benefit from a Bitcoin sale, so adjusting for the working capital and Bitcoin benefits Tesla was barely free cash flow-positive. Meanwhile, earnings were just $0.65/share (adjusted for August’s 3:1 split) including roughly .10/share of emission credit sales which will disappear some time next year when competitors have enough EV capacity of their own. If we add back the one-time .03/share loss for the aforementioned Bitcoin sale and deduct the sunsetting credit sales, we get annualized adjusted run-rate earnings of just $2.32, giving Tesla an annualized run-rate PE ratio (as of the end of August) of 119 in an industry with an average current multiple of only around 5! And even to make that lousy earnings number Tesla (an alleged “technology growth company”) had to slash R&D spending sequentially by almost $200 million while simultaneously claiming a mysterious reduction in SG&A despite opening two brand new factories in the quarter that Musk called “gigantic money furnaces.” Loss Of Product Edge Meanwhile, Tesla has objectively lost its “product edge,” with many competing cars now offering comparable or better real-world range, better interiors, similar or faster charging speeds and much better quality. (Tesla ranks second-to-last in Consumer Reports’ reliability survey while British consumer organization Which? found it to be one of the least reliable cars in existence.) Thus, due to competitors’ temporary production constraints, waiting times are now longer for many of Tesla’s direct EV competitors than they are for a Tesla. (Here’s one example, and here’s another.) In fact, Tesla is likely now the second, third or fourth choice for many EV buyers, and only maintains its volume lead though a short-lived edge in production capacity that will disappear over the next 12 to 36 months as competitors rapidly increase the ability to produce their superior EVs. Tesla’s poorly-built Model Y faces current (or imminent) competition from the much better made (and often just better) electric Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Ford Mustang Mach E, Cadillac Lyriq, Nissan Ariya, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Chevrolet Blazer EV and Polestar 3. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, the great new BMW i4, the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 6 and Volkswagen Aero, and multiple local competitors in China—here, from Snowbull Capital’s @TaylorOgan, is just one example of that Chinese competition: And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Porsche Taycan (the base model of which is now considerably less expensive than Tesla’s Model S) outsells the Model S, while the spectacular Mercedes EQS, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make it look like a fast Yugo, and the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX and Mercedes EQS SUV do the same to the Model X. Tesla Is Netflix Indeed, for years I’ve said “Tesla is Blackberry”—the maker of a first-generation version of a product that—once the market was proven—would be supplanted into niche obscurity by newer, better versions; now I can provide a much more recent analogy: Tesla is Netflix. For years Netflix had an absurd valuation based on its pioneering position in streaming media, but once it proved that such a market existed myriad competitors swarmed all over it, and this year the stock collapsed when we learned that not only is Netflix no longer in “hypergrowth” mode but for the first time since 2011 (when it transitioned from physical DVDs) it actually lost subscribers. I believe Musk knows that Tesla is “the next Netflix” (hence his recent “Twitter buying distraction”), with VW, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, BMW, Mercedes, BYD & other Chinese competitors and, in a few years, Toyota & Honda, being the Disney, HBO Max, Amazon Prime, Peacock, Hulu, Paramount +, etc., of the electric car market, stealing Tesla’s share and eventually pounding its stock price down 90% or so from today’s, into the valuation of “just another car company.” Despite this obvious “writing on the wall,” many Tesla bulls sincerely believe that ten years from now the company will be twice the size of Volkswagen or Toyota, thereby selling around 20 million cars a year (up from the current run-rate of around 1.3 million); in fact in May Musk himself even raised this as a possibility. Setting aside the absurdity of selling that many cars at Tesla’s high price points, to illustrate the “logistical absurdity” of this, going from 1.3 million cars a year today to 20 million in ten years means that in addition to 2 million cars a year of sold-out existing claimed production capacity (once the German and Texas factories are fully operational), Tesla would have to add 36 more brand new 500,000 car/year factories with sold out production; i.e., a new factory nearly every single quarter for the next ten years! Meanwhile, in July the head of Tesla’s “self-driving” program quit, while in June the NHTSA announced that its investigation of Tesla’s deadly Autopilot has expanded into “an engineering analysis,” the last required step before (finally!) demanding a full recall. The refund liability potential for Tesla for this is in the billions of dollars, and possibly even the tens of billions if a class action lawsuit proves that the cars involved were purchased solely due to the (fallacious) promise of “full self-driving.” And, of course, there will be a massive “valuation reappraisal” for Tesla’s stock as the world wakes up to the fact that Tesla’s so-called “autonomy technology” is just trailing-edge garbage. As of July the NHTA was investigating 48 crashes involving autonomous driving systems, 39 of which—and all the deaths but one—involve Tesla. (For all Tesla deaths cited in the media—which is likely only a small fraction of those that have occurred—see TeslaDeaths.com.) And Tesla has sold this trashy software for almost six years now: …and still promotes it on its website via a completely fraudulent video! Nothing Proprietary Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market some time in 2024 (as is now expected), even if Tesla makes some of its own, other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone, and BMW has already announced it will buy them from CATL and EVE. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as it will enter a dogfight of a market; in fact, Ford’s terrific 2022 all-electric F-150 Lightning now has over 200,000 retail reservations (plus many more fleet reservations), GM has introduced its fantastic 2023 electric Silverado which already has nearly 200,000 reservations and Rivian’s pick-up has gotten excellent early reviews. Regarding safety, as noted earlier in this letter, Tesla continues to deceptively sell its hugely dangerous so-called “Autopilot” system, which Consumer Reports has completely eviscerated; God only knows how many more people this monstrosity unleashed on public roads will kill despite the NTSB condemning it. Elsewhere in safety, the Chinese government forced the recall of tens of thousands of Teslas for a dangerous suspension defect the company spent years trying to cover up, and now Tesla has been hit by a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. for the same defect. Tesla also knowingly sold cars that it knew were a fire hazard and did the same with solar systems, and after initially refusing to do so voluntarily, it was forced to recall a dangerously defective touchscreen. In other words, when it comes to the safety of customers and innocent bystanders, Tesla is truly one of the most vile companies on Earth. Meanwhile the massive number of lawsuits of all types against the company continues to escalate. So Here Is Tesla’s Competition In Cars... (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo Porsche Macan Electric SUV Officially Coming in 2023 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen unveils ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz Electric Van Volkswagen unveils the ID. AERO sedan with 385 miles of range New sketch of 2025 Volkswagen ID.1 unveiled VW’s Cupra Born Volkswagen unveils $7.1B commitment to boost product line-up, R&D, mfg in N. America Audi e-tron Audi e-tron Sportback Audi E-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron confirmed for 2022 launch 2022 Audi A6 e-tron set to take on Tesla Audi will expand EV lineup with electric A6 wagon Audi TT to be axed in 2023 for 'emotional', electric replacement Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV9 to land in US in 2023 with 300-miles range, $50,000 price Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS: the first electric vehicle in the luxury class 2023 Mercedes EQS SUV Is a Seven-Seat EV Flagship with up to 536 HP 2023 Mercedes EQE Electric Sedan Mercedes EQE SUV to rival BMW iX and Tesla Model X Mercedes EQC electric SUV available now in Europe & China Mercedes-Benz Launches the EQV, its First Fully-Electric Passenger Van Mercedes-Benz EQB Makes Its European Debut, US Sales Confirmed Mercedes-Benz unveils EQA electric SUV with 265 miles of range and ~$46,000 price Ford Mustang Mach-E Available Now Ford F-150 Lightning electric pick-up available 2022 Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford unveils Lincoln Star electric SUV concept as it readies to add four new EVs by 2026 Polestar 2 sedan Polestar 3 SUV With 372-Mile Range Coming Late 2022 Volvo XC40 Recharge Volvo C40 Recharge Chevrolet Blazer EV Chevrolet Bolt sedan, 259-mile range starting at $31,000 Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq GMC Electric Hummer Pick-Up and SUV GM electric Silverado pickup truck GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services GM & Honda Will Codevelop Affordable EVs Targeting Most Popular Vehicle Segments Honda pours $40 billion into electrification, targets 2 million EV production by 2030 Honda and Sony finalize 50-50 joint venture to build EVs in 2025 BMW leads off EV offensive with iX3 BMW expands EV offerings with iX tech flagship and i4 sedan BMW i7 EV, with 600 hp, will be most powerful variant of new 7 Series flagship BMW iX1 Revealed With 313 HP, 272 Miles WLTP Range Renault-Nissan alliance plows $26B into EV blitz- will jointly launch 35 new EVs Nissan vows to hop back on EV podium with Ariya Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now Nissan Unveils $18 Billion Electric-Vehicle Strategy Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises 'heart-of-the-market SUV' from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Chrysler to go all-EV by 2028 Alfa Romeo's First Electric Car Will Arrive in 2024 Peugeote-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Rivian R1T Is the Most Remarkable Pickup We’ve Ever Driven Maserati going fully electric by 2030 -all vehicles will offer a BEV version by 2025 Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota’s Electric bZ4X Goes On Sale in Spring 2022 Toyota will have lineup of 30 full EVs by 2030; Lexus will be all-electric brand Honda and Sony to build, sell EVs by 2025 Opel sees electric Corsa as key EV entry 2021 Vauxhall Mokka revealed as EV with sharp looks, massive changes Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV offers range of power, battery sizes Electric Skoda Enyaq coupe to muscle-in on Tesla Model 3 Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals Nio to launch in five more European countries after Norway BYD will launch electric SUV in Europe The Lucid Air Achieves an Estimated EPA Range of 517 Miles on a Single Charge Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 All-electric Rolls-Royce Spectre to launch in 2023 – firm to be EV-only by 2030 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Meet the Canoo, a Subscription-Only EV Pod Coming in 2021 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Former Saab factory gets new life building solar-powered Sono Sion electric cars Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China, Where Tesla’s EV Market Share Is Now Declining... BYD is #1 in Chinese EVs, selling FAR more than Tesla Volkswagen to boost Chinese EV capacity to 1m by 2023 Audi-FAW's $3.3 billion electric vehicle venture Nio Xpeng Motors Hozon/Neta Li Auto GAC Aion Leap Motors GM launches Ultium EV production platform in China Ford Mustang Mach-E Rolls Off Assembly Line in China Cheaper than Tesla: Honda takes aim at China's middle class BMW i3 Debuts As All-Electric 3 Series Only For China Hongqi Geely Zeekr Premium EVs by Geely Baidu and Geely put nearly $400 million more into their electric car venture China-made Mercedes-Benz EQE hits market BAIC Hyundai, BAIC Motor to inject $942 mn in China JV for EVs Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Lexus RZ 450e Steers For China Dongfeng SAIC Renault launches sales of first EV in China Nissan expects 40% of sales in China to be electrified by 2026 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weimar Chery Seres Enovate Singulato JAC Motors Iconiq Motors Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia Human Horizons Xiaomi announces plans for four electric vehicle models Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Autonomous Driving; The Independents All Have Deals With Major OEMs... Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Waymo operates robotaxis NOW GM’s Cruise operates robotaxis NOW Argo AI (owned by Ford & VW) Begins Driverless Vehicle Operations in Miami & Austin Mobileye operates driverless test fleets in Europe and the U.S. Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Ford’s hands-free “Blue Cruise” Mercedes Launches SAE Level 3 Drive Pilot System Honda Legend Sedan with Level 3 Autonomy Now Available in Japan Hyundai + Motional Bringing IONIQ 5 robotaxis to the streets from 2023 Amazon’s Zoox will test its autonomous vehicles on Seattle’s rainy streets Baidu greenlighted for China's first-ever commercial driverless Robotaxi service Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Pony.ai approved for public driverless robotaxi service in Beijing Here’s Where Tesla’s Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells... Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Northvolt Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe GM’s Ultium GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems SK On and Ford form BlueOval SK, an EV battery joint venture BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and Samsung SDI to Invest Over $2.5B in Battery Production Plant in United States Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Mercedes-Benz and Sila achieve breakthrough with high silicon automotive battery Toyota to invest $5.3bn to make EV batteries in U.S. and Japan Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Honda Motor, LG Energy to build $4.4 bln U.S. EV battery plant Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries UK companies AMTE Power and Britishvolt plan $4.9 billion investment in battery plants Foxconn breaks ground on first EV battery plant Envision EVE Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries Morrow Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Charging Networks... Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America EVgo Chargepoint Ionity Europe Shell 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM, EVgo, and Pilot will install 2,000 fast chargers at travel centers GM to Expand Access to EV Charging with More than 40,000 Charging Stations Volkswagen powers up the grid to take on Tesla Volkswagen-backed CAMS eyes deployment of 17,000 charging points in China by 2025 Circle K begins North American EV fast charger rollout, plans 200-site network by 2024 Porsche to build out its own network of EV charging stations Petro-Canada Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta E.On BP Volkswagen and BP partner to deploy up to 8,000 EV chargers across EU/UK Smatric Allego Podpoint Instavolt Fastned Total Nio Battery Swap Stations BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales Evie And Here’s Tesla’s Competition In Storage Batteries... Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions CATL BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Generac Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS Electriq Power Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bollore Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei Toyota ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium Thanks, Mark Spiegel Stanphyl Capital.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 1st, 2022

Tesla Isn’t Paying Some Of Its Bills! – Shortseller

Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended July 31, 2022, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla, starting with Elon Musk’s continually spewing fountain of bullshit summarized in just two tweets, the first one last week… …and the second one from over seven years ago… What’s the matter, Elon? Are you running out […] Stanphyl Capital’s commentary for the month ended July 31, 2022, discussing their short position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla, starting with Elon Musk’s continually spewing fountain of bullshit summarized in just two tweets, the first one last week… …and the second one from over seven years ago… What’s the matter, Elon? Are you running out of new bullshit? Meanwhile, here’s my take on Tesla’s disastrous service times: Elon Musk remains the most vile person ever to head a large-cap U.S. public company, and we remain short Tesla, the biggest bubble-stock in modern market history, because: .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   It has a sliding share of the world’s EV market and a share of the overall auto market that’s only around 1.5%, yet a market cap roughly equal to the next 16 largest automakers (by market cap) combined despite selling only around 2% of the cars they do. It has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of its electric car technology (which has now been equaled or surpassed by numerous competitors) and its previously proprietary Superchargers are being opened to everyone), while existing automakers—unlike Tesla­—have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably. Excluding working capital benefits and sunsetting emission credit sales Tesla generates only minimal free cash flow. Growth in sequential demand for Tesla’s cars is at a crawl relative to expectations. Elon Musk is a pathological liar. One Good News Let’s start with the one potential piece of moderately good news for Tesla, because pretty much everything else that happened this month was bad. Late in July, Manchin announced he’d made a deal with Schumer to extend the $7500 EV tax credit which Tesla lost a couple of years ago. However, due to the new program’s price caps, only Tesla’s cheapest, short-range Model 3 qualifies, along with its Model Y which sneaks in as a “small SUV” (which have higher price caps), despite simply being a Model 3 with a bloated, guppy-like body stuck on it. But there are new income cutoffs restricting who can use these credits: $150,000 for an individual and $300,000 for a married couple, which will eliminate a number of potential Tesla buyers. If we then add in the fact that myriad great and less expensive Model Y competition has now arrived, with much more coming in 2023 when the credits begin, I see this government spending boondoggle adding perhaps 100,000 deliveries a year for Tesla; i.e., a rounding error for its market cap and volume projections. And now for the rest of the news… In July Tesla reported a terrible Q2, with deliveries down 26% from Q1 (which itself showed no growth over Q4). However, Q2’s sales decrease was primarily due to a monthlong COVID-related closing of Tesla’s Shanghai factory, and thus it might be a while before we can get a “clean” demand picture for the company. Unpaid Bills Regardless, in Q2 Tesla generated only $621 million in stated free cash flow, yet that included a sequential increase in payables (and decrease in receivables) despite a $1.8 billion decrease in revenue! (In other words, Tesla isn’t paying some of its bills!) Additionally, there was a $106M operating cash flow benefit from a Bitcoin sale, so adjusting for the working capital and Bitcoin benefits Tesla was barely free cash flow-positive. Meanwhile, earnings were just $1.95/share including roughly .30/share of emission credit sales which will disappear some time next year when competitors have enough EV capacity of their own. If we add back in the one-time .09/share loss for the aforementioned Bitcoin sale and deduct the sunsetting credit sales, we get annualized adjusted run-rate earnings of just $6.96, giving Tesla an annualized run-rate PE ratio (as of July’s end) of 128 in an industry with an average current multiple of only around 5! And even to make that lousy earnings number Tesla (an alleged “technology growth company”) had to slash R&D spending sequentially by almost $200 million while simultaneously claiming a mysterious reduction in SG&A despite opening two brand new factories in the quarter that Musk called “gigantic money furnaces.” Regardless of any Q2 sales shortfalls caused by the temporary factory closing, Tesla has objectively lost its “product edge,” with many competing cars now offering comparable or better real-world range, better interiors, similar or faster charging speeds and much better quality. (Tesla ranks second-to-last in Consumer Reports’ reliability survey while British consumer organization Which? found it to be one of the least reliable cars in existence.) Thus, due to competitors’ temporary production constraints, waiting times are now longer for many of Tesla’s direct EV competitors than they are for a Tesla. (Here’s one example, and here’s another.) In fact, Tesla is likely now the second, third or fourth choice for many EV buyers, and only maintains its volume lead though a short-lived edge in production capacity that will disappear over the next 12 to 36 months as competitors rapidly increase the ability to produce their superior EVs. Tesla’s poorly-built Model Y faces current (or imminent) competition from the much better made (and often just better) electric Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Ford Mustang Mach E, Cadillac Lyriq, Nissan Ariya, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Chevrolet Blazer EV and Polestar 3. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, the great new BMW i4, the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 6 and Volkswagen Aero, and multiple local competitors in China—here, from Snowbull Capital’s @TaylorOgan, is just one example of that Chinese competition: And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Porsche Taycan (the base model of which is now considerably less expensive than Tesla’s Model S) outsells the Model S, while the spectacular new Mercedes EQS, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make it look like a fast Yugo, and the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX and Mercedes EQS SUV do the same to the Model X. The worst thing that can possibly happen to “the Tesla story” will be when its German and Texas plants are fully operational and the subsequent excess capacity stares the world right in the face, thereby ending its myth of “unlimited demand” (especially at current, drastically-raised prices, where the cheapest Model 3 now starts at $47,000 and the cheapest Model Y begins at $66,000); in fact, look for margin-destroying price cuts by late this year or early 2023. Tesla Is Netflix Indeed, for years I’ve said “Tesla is Blackberry”—the maker of a first-generation version of a product that—once the market was proven—would be supplanted into niche obscurity by newer, better versions; now I can provide a much more recent analogy: Tesla is Netflix. For years Netflix had an absurd valuation based on its pioneering position in streaming media, but once it proved that such a market existed myriad competitors swarmed all over it, and in April the stock collapsed when we learned that not only is Netflix no longer in “hypergrowth” mode but for the first time since 2011 (when it transitioned from physical DVDs) it actually lost subscribers. I believe Musk knows that Tesla is “the next Netflix” (hence his recent “Twitter buying distraction”), with VW, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, BMW, Mercedes, BYD & other Chinese competitors and, in a few years, Toyota & Honda, being the Disney, HBO Max, Amazon Prime, Peacock, Hulu, Paramount +, etc., of the electric car market, stealing Tesla’s share and eventually pounding its stock price down 95% or so from today’s, into the valuation of “just another car company.” Despite this obvious “writing on the wall,” many Tesla bulls sincerely believe that ten years from now the company will be twice the size of Volkswagen or Toyota, thereby selling around 20 million cars a year (up from the current run-rate of around 1.3 million); in fact in March Musk himself even raised this as a possibility. Setting aside the absurdity of selling that many cars at Tesla’s high price points, to illustrate the “logistical absurdity” of this, going from 1.3 million cars a year today to 20 million in ten years means that in addition to two million cars a year of sold-out existing claimed production capacity (once the German and Texas factories are fully operational), Tesla would have to add 36 more brand new 500,000 car/year factories with sold out production; i.e., a new factory almost every single quarter for the next ten years! Meanwhile, in July the head of Tesla’s “self-driving” program quit, while in June the NHTSA announced that its investigation of Tesla’s deadly Autopilot has expanded into “an engineering analysis,” the last required step before (finally!) demanding a full recall. The refund liability potential for Tesla for this is in the billions of dollars, and possibly even the tens of billions if a class action lawsuit proves that the cars involved were purchased solely due to the (fallacious) promise of “full self-driving.” And, of course, there will be a massive “valuation reappraisal” for Tesla’s stock as the world wakes up to the fact that Tesla’s so-called “autonomy technology” is just trailing-edge garbage. As of July, the NHTA is investigating 48 crashes involving autonomous driving systems, 39 of which—and all the deaths but one—involve Tesla. (For all Tesla deaths cited in the media—which is likely only a small fraction of those that have occurred—see TeslaDeaths.com.) And Tesla has sold this trashy software for almost six years now: …and still promotes it on its website via a completely fraudulent video! Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market some time in 2024 (as is now expected), even if Tesla makes some of its own,  other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as it will enter a dogfight of a market; in fact, Ford’s terrific 2022 all-electric F-150 Lightning now has over 200,000 retail reservations (plus many more fleet reservations), GM has introduced its fantastic 2023 electric Silverado which already has nearly 200,000 reservations and Rivian’s pick-up has gotten excellent early reviews. Regarding safety, as noted earlier in this letter, Tesla continues to deceptively sell its hugely dangerous so-called “Autopilot” system, which Consumer Reports has completely eviscerated; God only knows how many more people this monstrosity unleashed on public roads will kill despite the NTSB condemning it. Elsewhere in safety, the Chinese government forced the recall of tens of thousands of Teslas for a dangerous suspension defect the company spent years trying to cover up, and now Tesla has been hit by a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. for the same defect. Tesla also knowingly sold cars that it knew were a fire hazard and did the same with solar systems, and after initially refusing to do so voluntarily, it was forced to recall a dangerously defective touchscreen. In other words, when it comes to the safety of customers and innocent bystanders, Tesla is truly one of the most vile companies on Earth. Meanwhile the massive number of lawsuits of all types against the company continues to escalate. So Here Is Tesla's Competition In Cars... (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo Porsche Macan Electric SUV Officially Coming in 2023 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen unveils ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz Electric Van Volkswagen unveils the ID. AERO sedan with 385 miles of range New sketch of 2025 Volkswagen ID.1 unveiled VW’s Cupra Born Volkswagen unveils $7.1B commitment to boost product line-up, R&D, mfg in N. America Audi e-tron Audi e-tron Sportback Audi E-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron confirmed for 2022 launch 2022 Audi A6 e-tron set to take on Tesla Audi will expand EV lineup with electric A6 wagon Audi TT to be axed in 2023 for 'emotional', electric replacement Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV9 to land in US in 2023 with 300-miles range, $50,000 price Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS: the first electric vehicle in the luxury class 2023 Mercedes EQS SUV Is a Seven-Seat EV Flagship with up to 536 HP 2023 Mercedes EQE Electric Sedan Mercedes EQE SUV to rival BMW iX and Tesla Model X Mercedes EQC electric SUV available now in Europe & China Mercedes-Benz Launches the EQV, its First Fully-Electric Passenger Van Mercedes-Benz EQB Makes Its European Debut, US Sales Confirmed Mercedes-Benz unveils EQA electric SUV with 265 miles of range and ~$46,000 price Ford Mustang Mach-E Available Now Ford F-150 Lightning electric pick-up available 2022 Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford unveils Lincoln Star electric SUV concept as it readies to add four new EVs by 2026 Polestar 2 sedan Polestar 3 SUV With 372-Mile Range Coming Late 2022 Volvo XC40 Recharge Volvo C40 Recharge Chevrolet Blazer EV Chevrolet Bolt sedan, 259-mile range starting at $31,000 Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq GMC Electric Hummer Pick-Up and SUV GM electric Silverado pickup truck GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services GM & Honda Will Codevelop Affordable EVs Targeting Most Popular Vehicle Segments Honda pours $40 billion into electrification, targets 2 million EV production by 2030 Honda and Sony finalize 50-50 joint venture to build EVs in 2025 BMW leads off EV offensive with iX3 BMW expands EV offerings with iX tech flagship and i4 sedan BMW i7 EV, with 600 hp, will be most powerful variant of new 7 Series flagship BMW iX1 Revealed With 313 HP, 272 Miles WLTP Range Renault-Nissan alliance plows $26B into EV blitz- will jointly launch 35 new EVs Nissan vows to hop back on EV podium with Ariya Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now Nissan Unveils $18 Billion Electric-Vehicle Strategy Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises 'heart-of-the-market SUV' from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Chrysler to go all-EV by 2028 Alfa Romeo's First Electric Car Will Arrive in 2024 Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Rivian R1T Is the Most Remarkable Pickup We’ve Ever Driven Maserati going fully electric by 2030 -all vehicles will offer a BEV version by 2025 Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota’s Electric bZ4X Goes On Sale in Spring 2022 Toyota will have lineup of 30 full EVs by 2030; Lexus will be all-electric brand Honda and Sony to build, sell EVs by 2025 Opel sees electric Corsa as key EV entry 2021 Vauxhall Mokka revealed as EV with sharp looks, massive changes Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV offers range of power, battery sizes Electric Skoda Enyaq coupe to muscle-in on Tesla Model 3 Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals Nio to launch in five more European countries after Norway BYD will launch electric SUV in Europe The Lucid Air Achieves an Estimated EPA Range of 517 Miles on a Single Charge Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 All-electric Rolls-Royce Spectre to launch in 2023 – firm to be EV-only by 2030 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Meet the Canoo, a Subscription-Only EV Pod Coming in 2021 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Former Saab factory gets new life building solar-powered Sono Sion electric cars Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China, Where Tesla’s EV Market Share Is Now Declining... BYD is #1 in Chinese EVs, selling FAR more than Tesla Volkswagen to boost Chinese EV capacity to 1m by 2023 Audi-FAW's $3.3 billion electric vehicle venture Nio Xpeng Motors Hozon/Neta Li Auto GAC Aion Leap Motors GM launches Ultium EV production platform in China Ford Mustang Mach-E Rolls Off Assembly Line in China Cheaper than Tesla: Honda takes aim at China's middle class BMW i3 Debuts As All-Electric 3 Series Only For China Hongqi Geely Zeekr Premium EVs by Geely Baidu and Geely put nearly $400 million more into their electric car venture Mercedes-Benz Said To Build EV In China From 2024 BAIC Hyundai, BAIC Motor to inject $942 mn in China JV for EVs Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Lexus RZ 450e Steers For China Dongfeng SAIC Renault launches sales of first EV in China Nissan expects 40% of sales in China to be electrified by 2026 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weimar Chery Seres Enovate Singulato JAC Motors Iconiq Motors Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia Human Horizons Xiaomi announces plans for four electric vehicle models Here's Tesla's Competition In Autonomous Driving; The Independents All Have Deals With Major OEMs... Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Waymo operates robotaxis NOW GM’s Cruise operates robotaxis NOW Argo AI (owned by Ford & VW) Begins Driverless Vehicle Operations in Miami & Austin Mobileye operates driverless test fleets in Europe and the U.S. Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Ford’s hands-free “Blue Cruise” Mercedes Launches SAE Level 3 Drive Pilot System Honda Legend Sedan with Level 3 Autonomy Now Available in Japan Hyundai + Motional Bringing IONIQ 5 robotaxis to the streets from 2023 Amazon’s Zoox will test its autonomous vehicles on Seattle’s rainy streets Baidu Apollo’s autonomous driving service is now inclusive to all the megacities in China Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Pony.ai approved for public driverless robotaxi service in Beijing Here's Where Tesla's Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells... Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Northvolt Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe GM’s Ultium GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems SK On and Ford form BlueOval SK, an EV battery joint venture BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and Samsung SDI to Invest Over $2.5B in Battery Production Plant in United States Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Mercedes-Benz and Sila achieve breakthrough with high silicon automotive battery Toyota to build plant in N.C. capable of making up to 1.2M batteries a year Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner UK companies AMTE Power and Britishvolt plan $4.9 billion investment in battery plants Foxconn breaks ground on first EV battery plant Envision Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries Morrow Here's Tesla's Competition In Charging Networks... Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America EVgo Chargepoint Ionity Europe Shell 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM, EVgo, and Pilot will install 2,000 fast chargers at travel centers GM to Expand Access to EV Charging with More than 40,000 Charging Stations Volkswagen powers up the grid to take on Tesla Volkswagen-backed CAMS eyes deployment of 17,000 charging points in China by 2025 Circle K begins North American EV fast charger rollout, plans 200-site network by 2024 Porsche to build out its own network of EV charging stations Petro-Canada Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta E.On BP Volkswagen and BP partner to deploy up to 8,000 EV chargers across EU/UK Smatric Allego Podpoint Instavolt Fastned Total Nio Battery Swap Stations BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales Evie And Here's Tesla's Competition In Storage Batteries... Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions CATL BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Generac Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS Electriq Power Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bollore Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei Toyota ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium Thanks, Mark Spiegel Updated on Aug 1, 2022, 10:28 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkAug 1st, 2022

Tesla Will Soon Report A Terrible Q2: Shortseller

Stanphyl Capital letter to investors for the month ended June 30, 2022, discussing their short thesis for Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla’s Gigantic Money Furnaces Losing Billions Of Dollars In an interview released in June but conducted in late-May with a local Tesla fan club, Elon Musk called Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s new German and Texas factories […] Stanphyl Capital letter to investors for the month ended June 30, 2022, discussing their short thesis for Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla’s Gigantic Money Furnaces Losing Billions Of Dollars In an interview released in June but conducted in late-May with a local Tesla fan club, Elon Musk called Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s new German and Texas factories “gigantic money furnaces losing billions of dollars.” Yet in the quarterly conference call just five weeks prior to that he implied things were going great at those factories… if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q1 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more So, as Zach said, we remain confident of a 50% growth in vehicle production in 2022 versus ‘21. I think, we actually have a reasonable shot at a 60% increase over last year. So, let’s see. Obviously, we ramped production, as you will know, with Giga Berlin and Giga Texas in the past few months. So, with two fantastic factories with great teams, and they are ramping rapidly. Now, with new factories, the initial ramp always looks small, but it grows exponentially. So, I have very high confidence in the teams of both factories. And we expect to ramp those initially slowly, but like I said, growing exponentially with them achieving high volume by the end of this year. …and then proceeded to almost immediately dump billions of dollars in TSLA stock. Back when this country had an SEC that prioritized “corporate fraud” over nonsensical crap such as “climate change disclosures” it might have taken a look at this, but under Trump and now Biden the SEC has become one of the most useless agencies in Washington, which is quite an accomplishment considering its competition! We also learned in June that Tesla only fulfilled its obligation to report a series of serious Autopilot accidents to the NHTSA after the NHTSA had already learned about them. Elon Musk remains the most vile person ever to head a large-cap U.S. public company, and we remain short Tesla, the biggest bubble-stock in modern market history, because: It has a flat-to-sliding share of the world’s EV market and a share of the overall auto market that’s only around 1.5%, yet a market cap greater than the next 9 largest automakers (by market cap) combined despite selling fewer than 3% of the cars they do. It has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of its electric car technology (which has now been equaled or surpassed by numerous competitors), while existing automakers—unlike Tesla­—have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably. Meanwhile, its previously proprietary Superchargers are being opened to everyone. Excluding working capital benefits and sunsetting emission credit sales Tesla generates only minimal free cash flow. Growth in sequential unit demand for Tesla’s cars is at a crawl relative to expectations. Elon Musk is a pathological liar. A Terrible Q2 Tesla will soon report a terrible Q2 (even before accounting for a roughly $500 million Bitcoin write-down), with deliveries down substantially from Q1, which itself showed no growth over Q4. However, Q2’s decrease was due to a monthlong COVID-related closing of Tesla’s Shanghai factory, and thus it might be a while yet before we can get a “clean” demand picture for the company. Regardless, Tesla has objectively lost its “product edge,” with many competing cars now offering comparable or better real-world range, better interiors, similar or faster charging speeds and much better quality. (Tesla ranks second-to-last in Consumer Reports’ reliability survey while British consumer organization Which? found it to be one of the least reliable cars in existence.) Thus, due to competitors’ temporary production constraints, waiting times are now longer for many of Tesla’s direct EV competitors than they are for a Tesla. (Here’s one example, and here’s another.) In fact, Tesla is now the second, third or fourth choice for many EV buyers, and only maintains its volume lead though a short-lived edge in production capacity that will disappear over the next 12 to 36 months as competitors rapidly increase the ability to produce their superior EVs. In fact, Tesla’s poorly-built Model Y faces current (or imminent) competition from the much better made (and often just better) electric Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Ford Mustang Mach E, Cadillac Lyriq, Nissan Ariya, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX3, Mercedes EQB, Volvo XC40 Recharge and Polestar 3. And Tesla’s Model 3 now has terrific direct “sedan competition” from Volvo’s beautiful Polestar 2, the great new BMW i4, the upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 6 and Volkswagen Aero, and multiple local competitors in China—here, from Snowbull Capital’s @TaylorOgan, is just one example of that Chinese competition: And in the high-end electric car segment worldwide the Porsche Taycan (the base model of which is now considerably less expensive than Tesla’s Model S) outsells the Model S, while the spectacular new Mercedes EQS, Audi e-Tron GT and Lucid Air make it look like a fast Yugo, and the extremely well reviewed new BMW iX and Mercedes EQS SUV do the same to the Model X. The worst thing that can possibly happen to “the Tesla story” will be when its German and Texas plants are fully operational and the subsequent excess capacity stares the world right in the face, thereby ending its myth of “unlimited demand” (especially at current, drastically-raised prices, where the cheapest Model 3 now starts at $47,000 and the cheapest Model Y begins at $66,000); in fact, look for margin-destroying price cuts by late this year or early 2023. Tesla Is Netflix Indeed, for years I’ve said “Tesla is Blackberry”—the maker of a first-generation version of a product that—once the market was proven—would be supplanted into niche obscurity by newer, better versions; now I can provide a much more recent analogy: Tesla is Netflix. For years Netflix had an absurd valuation based on its pioneering position in streaming media, but once it proved that such a market existed myriad competitors swarmed all over it, and in April the stock collapsed when we learned that not only is Netflix no longer in “hypergrowth” mode but for the first time since 2011 (when it transitioned from physical DVDs) it actually lost subscribers. I believe Musk knows that Tesla is “the next Netflix” (hence his recent “Twitter buying distraction”), with VW, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, GM, BMW, Mercedes, BYD & other Chinese competitors and, in a few years, Toyota & Honda, being the Disney, HBO Max, Amazon Prime, Peacock, Hulu, Paramount +, etc., of the electric car market, stealing Tesla’s share and eventually pounding its stock price down 95% or so from today’s, into the valuation of “just another car company.” Meanwhile, in June the NHTSA announced that its investigation of Tesla’s deadly Autopilot has expanded into “an engineering analysis,” the last required step before (finally!) demanding a full recall. The refund liability potential for Tesla for this is in the billions of dollars, and possibly even the tens of billions if a class action lawsuit proves that the cars involved were purchased solely due to the (fallacious) promise of “full self-driving.” And, of course, there will be a massive “valuation reappraisal” for Tesla’s stock as the world wakes up to the fact that Tesla’s so-called “autonomy technology” is just trailing-edge garbage. Also in June the NHTSA released some raw data about driver assistance system crashes, and over 70% of them involved Teslas. (For all Tesla deaths cited in the media—which is likely only a small fraction of those that have occurred—see TeslaDeaths.com.) Also interesting is that—unlike for other systems—in the vast majority of cases the Autopilot Teslas hit something rather than “were hit,” as was the case for more advanced systems (Level 4). And Tesla has sold this trashy software for over five years now: …and still promotes it on its website via a completely fraudulent video! Meanwhile, the “record” profits that accompanied Q1’s nearly flat delivery number were obtained via myriad one-time items, including $679 million of emission credit sales that will disappear over the next year or two as every automaker ramps up its EV sales, a mysterious $502 million reduction in SG&A expense (of which only $140 million was due to reduced stock comp) despite opening new factories in Germany and Texas (what is Tesla capitalizing instead of expensing???) and a combination of FIFO accounting and multiple sticker price increases that allowed Tesla to expense rapidly rising raw materials costs at older, lower prices while selling cars built from those materials at new, considerably higher prices. And, as cited here previously, Tesla practices consistently fraudulent warranty accounting. Adjusting for these factors, Tesla had GAAP earnings for the quarter that were at least $1/share lower than the posted $2.86, and annualizing that realistic $1.86/share to $7.44 means that at June’s closing price Tesla (on a no-growth quarter) had a PE ratio of around 90 vs. an industry-wide figure in the mid-single digits. Meanwhile, excluding growth in net payables and $993 million in sunsetting emission credit sales, Tesla’s free cash for Q1 2022 and Q4 2021 combined was just $950 million, which annualizes to only around $1.9 billion*. A 15x multiple on this (roughly a 100% premium to BMW’s multiple) would make TSLA stock worth only around $28/share! *And I’m not even backing out Tesla’s massively dilutive stock comp An Energy Company And for those of you who think that Tesla is “really an energy company,” in Q1 “Tesla Energy” had revenue of just $616 million (down 10.5% sequentially) and cost of revenue of $688 million, meaning it had a negative gross margin. So if Tesla is “really an energy company,” it’s even more screwed than if it’s just a car company! Meanwhile, many Tesla bulls sincerely believe that ten years from now the company will be twice the size of Volkswagen or Toyota, thereby selling around 20 million cars a year (up from the current run-rate of around 1.3 million); in fact in March Musk himself even raised this as a possibility. To illustrate how utterly absurd this is, going from 1.3 million cars a year today to 20 million in ten years means that in addition to one million cars a year of eventual production from the new German and Texas factories, Tesla would have to add 35 more brand new 500,000 car/year factories with sold out production; i.e., a new factory nearly every single quarter for ten years! Another favorite hype story from Tesla bulls has been “the China market,” but Tesla’s Q1 2022 domestic China sales sequentially declined by approximately 8000 units vs. Q4 2021, and it had only around 1.9% of the overall Chinese passenger vehicle market and has flatlined at only around 10% of the BEV market. In other words, “Tesla China” is no longer “a growth story”: Another favorite Tesla hype story has been built around so-called “proprietary battery technology.” In fact though, Tesla has nothing proprietary there—it doesn’t make them, it buys them from Panasonic, CATL and LG, and it’s the biggest liar in the industry regarding the real-world range of its cars. And if new-format 4680 cells enter the market some time in 2024 (as is now expected), even if Tesla makes some of its own,  other manufacturers will gladly sell them to anyone. And oh, the joke of a “pickup truck” Tesla previewed in 2019 (and still hasn’t shown in production-ready form) won’t be much of “growth engine” either, as it will enter a dogfight of a market; in fact, Ford’s terrific 2022 all-electric F-150 Lightning now has over 200,000 retail reservations (plus many more fleet reservations), GM has introduced its fantastic 2023 electric Silverado which already has nearly 200,000 reservations and Rivian’s pick-up has gotten excellent early reviews. Regarding safety, as noted earlier in this letter, Tesla continues to deceptively sell its hugely dangerous so-called “Autopilot” system, which Consumer Reports has completely eviscerated; God only knows how many more people this monstrosity unleashed on public roads will kill despite the NTSB condemning it. Elsewhere in safety, the Chinese government forced the recall of tens of thousands of Teslas for a dangerous suspension defect the company spent years trying to cover up, and now Tesla has been hit by a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. for the same defect. Tesla also knowingly sold cars that it knew were a fire hazard and did the same with solar systems, and after initially refusing to do so voluntarily, it was forced to recall a dangerously defective touchscreen. In other words, when it comes to the safety of customers and innocent bystanders, Tesla is truly one of the most vile companies on Earth. Meanwhile the massive number of lawsuits of all types against the company continues to escalate. So Here Is Tesla’s Competition In Cars... (note: these links are regularly updated) Porsche Taycan Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo Porsche Macan Electric SUV Officially Coming in 2023 Volkswagen ID.3 Volkswagen ID.4 Electric SUV Volkswagen unveils ID.6 SUV EV in China Volkswagen ID.Buzz Electric Van Volkswagen unveils the ID. AERO sedan with 385 miles of range New sketch of 2025 Volkswagen ID.1 unveiled VW’s Cupra Born Volkswagen unveils $7.1B commitment to boost product line-up, R&D, mfg in N. America Audi e-tron Audi e-tron Sportback Audi E-tron GT Audi Q4 e-tron Audi Q6 e-tron confirmed for 2022 launch 2022 Audi A6 e-tron set to take on Tesla Audi will expand EV lineup with electric A6 wagon Audi TT to be axed in 2023 for 'emotional', electric replacement Hyundai Ioniq 5 Hyundai Ioniq 6 Will Be a Slick-Looking EV Sedan Hyundai Kona Electric Genesis reveals their first EV on the E-GMP platform, the electric GV60 crossover Genesis Electrified GV70 Revealed With 483 Horsepower And AWD Kia Niro Electric: 239-mile range & $39,000 before subsidies Kia EV6: Charging towards the future Kia EV9 to land in US in 2023 with 300-miles range, $50,000 price Kia EV4 on course to grow electric SUV range Jaguar’s All-Electric i-Pace Jaguar to become all-electric brand; Land Rover to Get 6 electric models Daimler will invest more than $47B in EVs and be all-electric ready by 2030 Mercedes EQS: the first electric vehicle in the luxury class 2023 Mercedes EQS SUV Is a Seven-Seat EV Flagship with up to 536 HP 2023 Mercedes EQE Electric Sedan Mercedes EQE SUV to rival BMW iX and Tesla Model X Mercedes EQC electric SUV available now in Europe & China Mercedes-Benz Launches the EQV, its First Fully-Electric Passenger Van Mercedes-Benz EQB Makes Its European Debut, US Sales Confirmed Mercedes-Benz unveils EQA electric SUV with 265 miles of range and ~$46,000 price Ford Mustang Mach-E Available Now Ford F-150 Lightning electric pick-up available 2022 Ford set to launch ‘mini Mustang Mach-E’ electric SUV in 2023 Ford to launch 7 EVs in Europe in big electric push Ford unveils Lincoln Star electric SUV concept as it readies to add four new EVs by 2026 Polestar 2 sedan Polestar 3 SUV With 372-Mile Range Coming Late 2022 Volvo XC40 Recharge Volvo C40 Recharge Chevrolet Bolt sedan, 259-mile range starting at $31,000 Chevrolet Bolt EUV electric crossover Cadillac All-Electric Lyriq Available Spring 2022 GMC 2022 ALL-ELECTRIC SUPERTRUCK HUMMER EV GM’s 2023 electric Silverado pickup truck GMC to launch electric Hummer SUV in 2023 2023 Chevrolet Blazer EV primed to take on Tesla Model Y GM Launches BrightDrop to Electrify the Delivery of Goods and Services GM & Honda Will Codevelop Affordable EVs Targeting Most Popular Vehicle Segments Honda pours $40 billion into electrification, targets 2 million EV production by 2030 Honda and Sony finalize 50-50 joint venture to build EVs in 2025 BMW leads off EV offensive with iX3 BMW expands EV offerings with iX tech flagship and i4 sedan BMW i7 EV, with 600 hp, will be most powerful variant of new 7 Series flagship BMW iX1 Revealed With 313 HP, 272 Miles WLTP Range Renault-Nissan alliance plows $26B into EV blitz- will jointly launch 35 new EVs Nissan vows to hop back on EV podium with Ariya Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range is available now Nissan Unveils $18 Billion Electric-Vehicle Strategy Renault upgrades Zoe electric car as competition intensifies Renault Dacia Spring Electric SUV Renault to boost low-volume Alpine brand with 3 EVs Renault's electric Megane will debut new digital cockpit Stellantis promises 'heart-of-the-market SUV' from new, 8-vehicle EV platform Chrysler to go all-EV by 2028 Alfa Romeo's First Electric Car Will Arrive in 2024 Peugeot e-208 PEUGEOT E-2008: THE ELECTRIC AND VERSATILE SUV Peugeot 308 will get full-electric version Subaru shows off its first electric vehicle, the Solterra SUV Citroen compact EV challenges VW ID3 on price Rivian R1T Is the Most Remarkable Pickup We’ve Ever Driven Maserati going fully electric by 2030 -all vehicles will offer a BEV version by 2025 Mini Cooper SE Electric Toyota’s Electric bZ4X Goes On Sale in Spring 2022 Toyota will have lineup of 30 full EVs by 2030; Lexus will be all-electric brand Honda and Sony to build, sell EVs by 2025 Opel sees electric Corsa as key EV entry 2021 Vauxhall Mokka revealed as EV with sharp looks, massive changes Skoda Enyaq iV electric SUV offers range of power, battery sizes Electric Skoda Enyaq coupe to muscle-in on Tesla Model 3 Skoda plans small EV, cheaper variants to take on French, Korean rivals Nio to launch in five more European countries after Norway BYD will launch electric SUV in Europe The Lucid Air Achieves an Estimated EPA Range of 517 Miles on a Single Charge Bentley will start output of first full EV in 2025 All-electric Rolls-Royce Spectre to launch in 2023 – firm to be EV-only by 2030 Aston Martin will build electric vehicles in UK from 2025 Meet the Canoo, a Subscription-Only EV Pod Coming in 2021 Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India; Global Tesla rival e-car soon Former Saab factory gets new life building solar-powered Sono Sion electric cars Foxconn aims for 10% of electric car platform market by 2025 And In China, Where Tesla’s EV Market Share Is Stuck At 10% And Not Growing… BYD is #1 in Chinese EVs, selling FAR more than Tesla Volkswagen to boost Chinese EV capacity to 1m by 2023 Audi-FAW's $3.3 billion electric vehicle venture Nio Xpeng Motors Hozon/Neta Li Auto GAC Aion Leap Motors GM launches Ultium EV production platform in China Ford Mustang Mach-E Rolls Off Assembly Line in China Cheaper than Tesla: Honda takes aim at China's middle class BMW i3 Debuts As All-Electric 3 Series Only For China Hongqi Geely Zeekr Premium EVs by Geely Baidu and Geely put nearly $400 million more into their electric car venture Mercedes-Benz Said To Build EV In China From 2024 BAIC Hyundai, BAIC Motor to inject $942 mn in China JV for EVs Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car Lexus RZ 450e Steers For China Dongfeng SAIC Renault launches sales of first EV in China Nissan expects 40% of sales in China to be electrified by 2026 Changan forms subsidiary Avatar Technology to develop smart EVs with Huawei, CATL WM Motors/Weimar Chery Seres Enovate Singulato JAC Motors Iconiq Motors Aiways Skyworth Auto Youxia Human Horizons Xiaomi announces plans for four electric vehicle models Here's Tesla's Competition In Autonomous Driving; The Independents All Have Deals With Major OEMs… Waymo ranked top & Tesla last in Guidehouse leaderboard on automated driving systems Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago Waymo operates robotaxis NOW GM’s Cruise operates robotaxis NOW Argo AI (owned by Ford & VW) Begins Driverless Vehicle Operations in Miami & Austin Mobileye operates driverless test fleets in Europe and the U.S. Cadillac Super Cruise Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving Ford’s hands-free “Blue Cruise” Mercedes Launches SAE Level 3 Drive Pilot System Honda Legend Sedan with Level 3 Autonomy Now Available in Japan Hyundai + Motional Bringing IONIQ 5 robotaxis to the streets from 2023 Amazon’s Zoox will test its autonomous vehicles on Seattle’s rainy streets Baidu Apollo’s autonomous driving service is now inclusive to all the megacities in China Alibaba-backed AutoX unveils first driverless RoboTaxi production line in China Pony.ai approved for public driverless robotaxi service in Beijing Here's Where Tesla's Competition Will Get Its Battery Cells... Panasonic (making deals with multiple automakers) LG Samsung SK Innovation Toshiba CATL BYD Northvolt Volkswagen to Build Six Electric-Vehicle Battery Factories in Europe GM’s Ultium GM to develop lithium-metal batteries with SolidEnergy Systems Ford, SK Innovation announce EV battery joint venture BMW & Ford Invest in Solid Power to Secure All Solid-State Batteries for Future Electric Vehicles Stellantis affirms commitment to build battery factory in Italy with Mercedes, TotalEnergies Stellantis and Samsung SDI to Invest Over $2.5B in Battery Production Plant in United States Stellantis and LG to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for Li-Ion Battery Plant in Canada Stellantis and Factorial Energy to Jointly Develop Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles Mercedes-Benz to build 8 battery factories in push to become electric-only automaker Mercedes-Benz and Sila achieve breakthrough with high silicon automotive battery Toyota to build plant in N.C. capable of making up to 1.2M batteries a year Toyota Outlines Solid-State Battery Tech, $13.6 Billion Investment Nissan Announces Proprietary Solid-State Batteries Daimler joins Stellantis as partner in European battery cell venture ACC Renault signs EV battery deals with Envision, Verkor for French plants Nissan to build $1.4bn EV battery plant in UK with Chinese partner UK companies AMTE Power and Britishvolt plan $4.9 billion investment in battery plants Foxconn breaks ground on first EV battery plant Freyr Verkor Farasis Microvast Akasol Cenat Wanxiang Eve Energy Svolt Romeo Power ProLogium Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries Morrow Here's Tesla's Competition In Charging Networks... Infrastructure Bill: $7.5 billion Towards Nationwide Network of 500,000 EV Chargers Electrify America EVgo Chargepoint Ionity Europe Shell 51 U.S. electric companies commit to build nationwide EV fast charging network by end of 2023 GM to Expand Access to EV Charging with More than 40,000 Charging Stations Volkswagen powers up the grid to take on Tesla Circle K begins North American EV fast charger rollout, plans 200-site network by 2024 Porsche to build out its own network of EV charging stations Petro-Canada Coast-to-Coast Canadian Charging Network Volta E.On BP Volkswagen and BP partner to deploy up to 8,000 EV chargers across EU/UK Smatric Allego Podpoint Instavolt Fastned Total Nio Battery Swap Stations BMW to Build 360,000 Charging Points in China to Juice Electric Car Sales Evie And here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries… Panasonic Samsung LG Energy Solutions CATL BYD AES + Siemens (Fluence) GE Hitachi ABB Toshiba Saft Johnson Contols EnerSys SOLARWATT Sonnen Generac Kokam Eaton Tesvolt Leclanche Lockheed Martin Honeywell EOS Energy Storage ESS Electriq Power Redflow Primus Power Simpliphi Power Invinity Murata Bollore Adara Blue Planet Aggreko Orison Powin Energy Nidec Powervault Kore Power Shanghai Electric LithiumWerks Natron Energy Energy Vault Ambri Voltstorage Cadenza Innovation Morrow Gridtential Villara Elestor SolarEdge Q-Cells Huawei Toyota ADS-TEC Form Energy Enphase Sumitomo Electric Stryten Energy Freyr Growatt Polarium Thanks, Mark Spiegel Updated on Jul 1, 2022, 10:56 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkJul 1st, 2022