Shiba Inu Sees 100% Weekly Burns As Whales Stack Up $66M

Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: SHIB) has seen 100% weekly burns in the past week, as investors seek to reduce the supply of the coin in a bid to drive up prices. read more.....»»

Category: blogSource: benzingaNov 28th, 2022

Aza Raskin Tried To Fix Social Media. Now He Wants to Use AI to Talk to Animals

The Center for Humane Technology's Aza Raskin says fixing social media and decoding animal speech are part of a holistic mission to change the world (To receive weekly emails of conversations with the world’s top CEOs and business decisionmakers, click here.) During the early years of the Cold War, an array of underwater microphones monitoring for sounds of Russian submarines captured something otherworldly in the depths of the North Atlantic. The haunting sounds came not from enemy craft, nor aliens, but humpback whales, a species that, at the time, humans had hunted almost to the brink of extinction. Years later, when environmentalist Roger Payne obtained the recordings from U.S. Navy storage and listened to them, he was deeply moved. The whale songs seemed to reveal majestic creatures that could communicate with one another in complex ways. If only the world could hear these sounds, Payne reasoned, the humpback whale might just be saved from extinction. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] When Payne released the recordings in 1970 as the album Songs of the Humpback Whale, he was proved right. The album went multi-platinum. It was played at the U.N. general assembly, and it inspired Congress to pass the 1973 endangered species act. By 1986, commercial whaling was banned under international law. Global humpback whale populations have risen from a low of around 5,000 individuals in the 1960s to 135,000 today. For Aza Raskin, the story is a sign of just how much can change when humanity experiences a moment of connection with the natural world. “It’s this powerful moment that can wake us up and power a movement,” Raskin tells TIME. Raskin’s focus on animals comes from a very human place. A former Silicon Valley wunderkind himself, in 2006 he was first to invent the infinite scroll, the feature that became a mainstay of so many social media apps. He founded a streaming startup called Songza that was eventually acquired by Google. But Raskin gradually soured on the industry after realizing that technology, which had such capacity to influence human behavior for the better, was mostly being leveraged to keep people addicted to their devices and spending money on unnecessary products. In 2018, he co-founded the Center for Humane Technology with his friend and former Google engineer Tristan Harris, as part of an effort to ensure tech companies were shaped to benefit humanity, rather than the other way around. He is perhaps best known for, alongside scholar Renée DiResta, coining the phrase “freedom of speech is not freedom of reach.” The phrase became a helpful way for responsible technologists, lawmakers and political commentators to distinguish between the constitutional freedom for users to say whatever they like, and the privilege of having it amplified by social media megaphones. Raskin is talking about whale song because he is also the co-founder and President of the Earth Species Project, an artificial intelligence (AI) nonprofit that is attempting to decode the speech of animals —from humpback whales, to great apes, to crows. The jury is out on whether it would ever truly be possible to accurately “translate” animal communication into anything resembling human language. Meaning is socially constructed, and animal societies are very different to ours. But Raskin is optimistic that the attempt is worthwhile, given that connection with animals can be a force strong enough to galvanize humans into protecting the natural world at such a critical juncture in the fight against climate change. The Earth Species Project is applying natural language processing—the AI technique behind human translation software and chatbots like OpenAI’s ChatGPT—to recordings of animals. While they haven’t succeeded in “decoding” any animal speech yet, computer scientists at the nonprofit recently designed an algorithm that is able to isolate the sounds from a single individual animal (the algorithm works well on bats and dolphins, and is not bad at elephants,) in a recording of multiple “speakers.” Raskin says solving this issue—known as the “cocktail party problem” since it is comparable with the difficulty of focusing on one person speaking in a crowded room—is a first step toward decoding the mysteries of the animal kingdom. Read More: AI Chatbots Are Getting Better. But an Interview With ChatGPT Reveals Their Limits Although fixing the ills of social media and decoding animal speech may seem worlds apart, Raskin sees them as part of a holistic mission. The Earth Species Project and the Center for Humane Technology are both “experiments into how you shift trillion dollar industries,” Raskin says. They share the same goal: changing society for the better, not through the traditional Silicon Valley route of building an app or cornering a business model, but by changing culture. TIME spoke with Raskin this summer. In this wide-ranging conversation, we discuss not just animal translation, but the state of social media, applying those lessons to the rapid rise of artificial intelligence, and how—amid everything—to secure a place for both humanity and nature in a fast-changing world. This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity. Before we get onto talking about the Earth Species Project, I want to talk about your life up to now. Your father was Jef Raskin, the famous expert in human-computer interaction at Apple who left a huge mark on that company. You yourself were a Silicon Valley founder who worked on subtly changing people’s behaviors through technology. Then you gave that all up to sound the alarm on social media. Now you’re trying to talk to animals through AI. Talk me through your trajectory. My mother worked in a palliative care hospice. From her, I learned what it is like to care for someone with dignity. My father created the Macintosh project at Apple. And he also came with a very humanistic sense of care, at a moment in Silicon Valley before it had been captured by engagement and the attention industrial machine. You could still ask these questions: what is technology even for? One of the things that makes humanity unique is not that we use tools—lots of species use tools—but the extent to which our tools remake us. There is no such thing as to be human without using some form of technology. Whether that’s language, whether that’s fire, or anything that came after. One of the things that people miss is the extent to which our technology changes our social structures and our culture. Just look at the plough. It changed how we lived, it created surplus food that let us move into cities, which changed the nature of family and relationships. If you’re going to use animals to plough your field, it’s not compatible with animistic traditions anymore, so it changes religion. Growing up, especially with my father, I was given this lens of how fundamental technology is to what humans become. We have a choice about what we do with technology, and what’s at stake is our identity and how we interrelate with the rest of the world. My father was really interested in the idea of ergonomics: how human beings bend and fold. If you don’t understand and study ergonomics, you end up designing things like chairs that really hurt us. There’s also an ergonomics of relationships, of communities, of societies—a way that we bend and fold. If we’re blind to ergonomics, we break ourselves. If capitalism isn’t ergonomic to our biosphere, we break the container that we live in. And this is the through-line. For almost all my work, I ask: how do we create things that understand the ergonomics of how we as human beings work, how our biosphere works, how our technosphere works, so that we can create things that help us thrive as a whole? You’ve done a lot of work around making technology more humane. But decoding animal speech seems out of left-field. How are the two connected? Civilization can’t exist without the accumulated culture and knowledge that comes from language. It’s right there at the core of human identity. The more you look, the more you realize human identities tied up with language, and that tells you that there’s something really important there for us to examine. Because even if we’re able to draw down all the carbon from the atmosphere tomorrow, which we should do, that wouldn’t fix the core problem, which is human ego. We need to change the way that we view ourselves, the way we relate to ourselves, and hence the rest of the world. That’s the connection with technology. Once we can change that identity, that creates the opportunity for entirely new patterns of behavior and for solving these problems. The big hope is that there are these moments in time, when we get a shift in perspective. And that shift in perspective changes everything. Humans have been speaking vocally and passing down culture for somewhere between 100,000 and 300,000 years. For whales and dolphins, it’s 34 million years. Generally the things that are wisest will have lasted longest. Imagine what kind of wisdom there can be in cultures that have been going on for 34 million years. It just gives me goosebumps. Do you have in mind what you want people’s perspective to be shifted toward? Yeah. I think it’s a stance of interdependence. If, generally speaking, you can empathize and you see someone else, or some other being as less than other, then suddenly, you’re more connected than you were before and your sphere of care expands. Many linguists understand human language to be tied up in our own brain structure and life experiences. Obviously both of those things are very different when we talk about animals. Maybe there are whale concepts that humans couldn’t possibly understand. Do you think it is actually possible to have a conversation with a whale? Or is it more like you would need to interpret what the whale is saying in a much more abstract way? I think it’s really important to hold these two poles. On one side, there’s being too anthropomorphic. Where you think, we have these feelings, therefore the animals do. On the other side, there’s human exceptionalism where we think we are so special that we don’t share anything with other animals. And of course, the truth is going to be somewhere in between. I think there are going to be some things that we’re going to find a similarity with, that we can directly communicate about, and then there are going to be the things that we don’t share. And therefore, that part will be a much more metaphorical kind of communication. And I don’t know, actually, which one is going to be more exciting. Will it be the parts that we can directly translate into human experience or the ones that we can’t? But I think what people often forget is this, this shared set of experiences is large. [Raskin shares his screen.] Here is a pilot whale who has been carrying her dead calf for three weeks. Grief is clearly some kind of really profound shared experience. Here is a chimp who is browsing Instagram, who is able to use it, and actually uses it often to follow other chimps. So there’s something here that is truly conserved. The answer is, of course, we don’t know because we’re doing science. This is a journey into the unknown. But we should keep a very open mind, not to fall into human exceptionalism. Just like we shouldn’t fall into anthropomorphism. I want to shift gears and talk about social media. You helped coin the term “freedom of speech is not freedom of reach.” To what extent do you feel like that concept has had an impact? And to what extent do you think that there’s still more to be done? I think it’s been a really helpful concept to get out in the world. Renée DiResta, who ended up penning the article that got that concept out into the world, has done a fantastic job. It clearly has done good work but needs to do more, because we are constantly trapped in the false dichotomy of saying, either we have content moderation, censorship, or we have free speech. But that phrase is pointing at a bigger thing, which is that we need to be thinking as a society as a whole. Facebook’s stock price has dropped by half, which I don’t think is just us, of course. But while we’ve had success, the stakes are even higher now, because we are still the commodity. Just like a tree is worth more as lumber than as a living tree, and a whale is worth more dead than alive, we are going to be worth more as polarized, distracted, narcissistic, tribalistic people, than we are as full, whole individuals. Shoshana Zuboff points out that capitalism takes things that are outside of the market and pulls them into the market. And once they’re in the market, then you can extract, abstract, deplete and pollute. And that’s what’s happened with human attention and engagement. It was outside of the market, it’s now inside the market. We need to think about the next layer up. We know that if you let markets run without any guardrails, they will always grow to break the thing they’re growing inside of. If your liver starts to grow, not listening to anything else, it’ll eventually take over your body and you die. That’s how cancer works. And so markets always need to come with guardrails, to keep them safe for the body they’re growing within. We’ve done that for capital markets. We do it for things like human organs. We have never done it with human attention or engagement. That’s a market that needs guardrails, otherwise, you’re constantly going to have like the race to the bottom of the brainstem. When I think about it at an even higher level, there’s this fundamental equation. Technology plus autocracy equals stronger autocracy. But technology plus democracy equals worse democracy. And if we do not solve that problem, then the values that we care most about will not have a seat in the future. Powerful machine learning systems are rapidly becoming accessible to businesses and members of the public. Some can generate realistic images. Others can generate realistic text. It took 10 years for technologists to force through a coherent set of guidelines for social media, and social media destabilized our world in the meantime. Now we’re seeing a very similar revolution at its earliest stages in terms of accessible generative AI. What do you think a few ethical red lines should be for technologies like GPT-3 and Dall-E? Who knew that AI was going to come first for art, story and relationships? The story has always been that it takes our jobs first. But actually it’s coming for things that we think are very core to human identity. And we have not yet grappled with all of that. I think there are some simple things that work across social media and AI. And that is: the scale of impact needs to scale with the kinds of guardrails you’re within. That is, if you’re touching a million people, versus touching 500 million or a billion people, you should probably have different standards that you’re operating to, compared to if you’re only touching 50 people. The next one is, you’re going to have to move to a world where we know that when something is posted online, it’s posted by a human. And that’s scary for a whole bunch of reasons. All of a sudden, it means you need to have stronger identity protections on the internet, which, if you don’t do it right, opens up a whole bunch of authoritarian surveillance stuff. But the flip side is, if we don’t do any of that, then we are witnessing the end of video and photographic evidence as a medium that we trust. That’s a neutron bomb for trust on the internet. So we’re gonna have to thread that needle between privacy, individual safety, ability to speak and express, and also society’s ability to hear and make sense. We’re going have to balance those things. And the last one is, I think one of the biggest lessons that Silicon Valley has not yet learned is that “democratize” does not equal “democracy.” If you put James Bond supervillain weapons in everyone’s hands, something bad is going to happen. The way I’ve been thinking about it is, even the phrase “chatbots” is the wrong phrase to use. Because that puts your mind back to the 1990s. Every time you say “chatbot,” replace it with “synthetic relationship.” Recently there was the Google engineer who was fired for believing his language model was sentient. And the takeaway is not whether it’s sentient or not. That’s the wrong question to ask. The right question to ask is, if he believes that he’s in a relationship with this language model that’s so profound that he’s willing to stand up and get fired, that means a lot of people are going to feel that the language models they encounter are sentient. Suddenly you get this realization that relationships are the most transformative technology human beings have. So that means loneliness is about to become one of the largest national security threats. Just as an example, there are relationship scams, where people go on Tinder, and they start a relationship, and then they end up getting scammed and asked for money. We should expect this harnessing of people’s lack of cohesion, lack of meaning, lack of belonging to a group or community. So we need to get in front of this. Read More: Fun AI Apps Are Everywhere Right Now. But a Safety ‘Reckoning’ Is Coming How do you suggest we do that? First we need to have an actual honest conversation about these things. Because right now we’re stuck in the conversation about how this is a neat piece of technology. Versus what does this mean? What are the asymmetric powers that are about to be deployed? For lawyers, who have an asymmetric power over their clients, they have a duty to act in the client’s best interest. We need to recategorize technology of this power as being in a fiduciary relationship. The paradox of technology is that it gives us the power to serve and protect at the exact same time as it gives us the power to exploit. So we are either entering into our darkest night, if we’re continually trapped by perverse incentives, or our most golden era. It’s going to be a touch-and-go relay race, from utopia to dystopia, until the final act. And I think of both the Center for Humane Technology and the Earth Species Project as trying to bend that arc systemically towards the golden era versus our darkest night......»»

Category: topSource: timeDec 11th, 2022

US Futures Stabilize After Rollercoaster Session As Yuan, Chinese Stocks Crater

US Futures Stabilize After Rollercoaster Session As Yuan, Chinese Stocks Crater US stock futures steadied following a rollercoaster move earlier in the session and after Friday’s sharp rally as traders assessed moves by Chinese President Xi Jinping to tighten his grip on the nation’s leadership while keeping an eye on macro data now that the Fed is in a chatterbox blackout. Contracts on the S&P 500 edged 0.7% higher at 7:30a.m. in New York after earlier rising as much as 1.3% and dropping 0.7%, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped for a second session. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.4% after bouncing between gains and losses earlier. Both underlying gauges are coming off their best week since June, and are entering the busiest week of the earnings season with 46% of the S&P 500’s market cap due to announce third-quarter results. A gauge of the dollar’s strength rose sharply unwinding some of Friday's losses, supported by a risk-off mood sparked by a rout across Chinese markets which saw the Hang Seng plunge 6.4%, the biggest one day drop since 2008! The offshore yen resumed its decline, tumbling by 1.3% - the biggest one-day slide since August 20019, to a record of 7.31, while the pound outperformed on bets for fiscal caution from the next UK prime minister. “Market sentiment could remain cautious near-term on China, on concerns of a shift of focus toward more state control versus a market-driven approach under the new leadership team,” said Xiaojia Zhi, the chief China economist at Credit Agricole CIB. “The exit path from zero-Covid is not yet clear.” Chinese economic data that was delayed last week and published Monday showed a mixed recovery, with unemployment rising and retail sales weakening despite a pickup in growth. Yet Xi’s Covid-zero campaign looks likely to continue to drag on the economy and there has been speculation that his “common prosperity” goal may even lead to property and inheritance taxes. “It’s clear demand is slowing but so far we’ve seen pockets of tech like software, cloud computing still being quite resilient,” said Laura Cooper, a senior investment strategist at BlackRock International Ltd., on Bloomberg TV. “We will be watching for any signs of cracks coming through that could put a dent to some of these earnings expectations.” In premarket trading, US-listed Chinese stocks tumbled, dragged lower by major internet and EV names including Alibaba, Baidu and Li Auto, which closed down more than 11%; search company Baidu was 12% lower while food delivery firm Meituan tanked more than 14%. The moves come after Chinese President Xi Jinping paved the way for an unprecedented third term as leader and packed the Politburo standing committee with loyalists. Tesla shares dropped after the company cut prices in China, reversing hikes imposed earlier this year.US stock futures steadied after Friday’s rally as traders assessed moves by Chinese President Xi Jinping to tighten his grip on the nation’s leadership. Other notable premarket movers: US-listed Macau casino stocks are also down, declining along with Chinese ADRs. Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) -7.9%, Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) -6.8%, Melco Resorts (MLCO US) -8.6% FedEx (FDX US) declines 1.9% in premarket trading after it was cut to equal-weight from overweight at Wells Fargo on concern that the revenue implications are not yet “fully captured” as the company pivots from growth and toward efficiency. Keep an eye on Williams-Sonoma (WSM US) stock as it was downgraded to underperform from hold at Jefferies, with broker saying it sees the home furnishing store operator underperforming ahead of a softer macroeconomic environment. Watch NXP Semiconductors (NXPI US) and Analog Devices (ADI US) shares as they were downgraded at Barclays, with the brokerage saying it expects cuts in the analog chip sector in the coming year and recommended “rotating out of the sub-sector sooner rather than later.” US investors have begun looking beyond the Federal Reserve’s ongoing tightening to a stage when it may begin to slow rate hikes. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and his San Francisco counterpart Mary Daly made it clear they expect discussion at the November meeting to include debate on how high to raise rates and when to ease the pace. At the same time, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson expects stocks to grind higher as markets transition to expectations of falling inflation and lower interest rates. The strategist, who correctly predicted this year’s slump, sees the S&P 500 Index bouncing as much as 15% if it breaches its 200-week moving average of 3,605 points, about 4% below Friday’s close. A similar view is held by Stifel Nicolaus & Co. strategists, who said in a separate note they see the benchmark rallying to 4,300 points in the next 6 months. "With the back end of the bond market offering real value for the first time since early 2021, rates are poised to come in," Wilson in a note on Monday. “Such a move could provide the necessary fuel for the next leg of the tactical rally in stocks until we get full capitulation on 2023 earnings estimates, something we think may take a few more months.” By contrast, Goldman Sachs Inc. strategists led by David Kostin are more cautious, seeing rising rates and slowing US growth hurting cyclicals and tech stocks. They recommend being overweight defensive sectors, as well as energy. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index held an advance of about 1.3%. Media, utilities and travel are the strongest-performing sectors in Europe while miners and energy lag. IBEX outperforms peers, adding 0.9%, FTSE 100 lags, dropping 0.4% after Boris Johnson pulled out of the race to lead the UK’s ruling Conservative Party, placing Rishi Sunak closer to becoming the next prime minister.  A 12% slump in Prosus NV shares amid the China concerns pushed the technology sector into the red, while basic resources and energy stocks weighed on the benchmark amid lower commodity prices. Michelin shares rose as much as 3.7% in Paris trading and are the day’s top performers on the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index, with the French tiremaker set to give a quarterly sales update on Tuesday. Here are the biggest European movers: Pearson shares jump as much as 7.8%, reaching the highest since January 2019, after the publishing and education company reported a 7% increase in underlying revenue in the first nine months of the year. Indivior gains as much as 7.6%, the most since February, after Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equal-weight, describing the stock as a “value, growth and margin expansion story.” Auto Trader rises as much as 4.3% after announcing the disposal of Webzone Ltd. Peel Hunt upgrades to buy from hold, saying the sale shows the company’s “dedication to its key market.” Temenos climbs as much as 8.2%, the most intraday since mid-June, after Dealreporter reported that Goldman Sachs and Citi are sounding out interest in the buyout of the Swiss banking software developer. Prosus falls as much as 14% in Amsterdam and parent Naspers sinks as much as 14% in Johannesburg, with both declines the sharpest since March. Naspers holds a 28% stake in Tencent, which plunged in Hong Kong trading following President Xi Jinping’s move to stack his leadership ranks with loyalists. Galp drops as much as 6.1% after reporting third-quarter profit that missed the average analyst estimate. Philips falls as much as 4.5% to the lowest since 2011 after saying it would cut 4,000 jobs as part of a EU300 million cost-saving package, which analysts say may imply liquidity problems for the Dutch medical technology firm. Asian stocks fell, dragged by Chinese shares as President Xi Jinping’s move to tighten his leadership deepened investor worries, offsetting advances in Australia, South Korea and Japan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased an earlier gain to drop as much as 1.2%, with Internet giants Tencent and Alibaba the biggest drags.  A selloff in Chinese stocks deepened in afternoon trading, as the Hang Seng plunged by more than 6%, its biggest drop since Lehman while the Hang Seng Tech Index crashed 9.7% to the lowest since February 2016, after Xi filled China’s most powerful bodies with close allies while securing a precedent-breaking third term. He installed six trusted associates alongside him on the Politburo’s supreme Standing Committee and put his former chief of staff Li Qiang in line for the premiership. Investors remained jittery as a leadership reshuffle highlighted Xi’s unquestioned grip over the ruling party, with allies set to take up key economic posts. An early loosening of Covid restrictions seemed less likely, while a set of long-delayed economic data showed a mixed recovery, further damping market sentiment. “The latest rally underlines our view that markets will remain volatile, and investors should prepare for large moves in both directions,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Incremental improvements in inflation or labor market data, indications of economic resilience, any softening of language from the Fed, has the potential to drive a market bounce, as we have seen in recent days.” “Markets may be hoping now that the leadership transition is finalized, the focus will turn to the economy and mending the property sector,” said Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, adding that property investment is still a weak spot for the economy. “Still, these may take time. We may not see much change to Covid policies in the near term.” The declines in Chinese shares contrasted with the upbeat mood elsewhere in Asia, buoyed by declines in US Treasury yields and Federal Reserve officials’ indications of a potential slowing of rate hikes. Markets were closed for holidays in Singapore, India, Malaysia, Thailand and New Zealand In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose, paring some of Friday’s losses and the greenback was steady or higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers. The pound jumped and gilts led Treasuries and European bonds higher as investors bet that Rishi Sunak would bring more stability to the country’s financial markets. Initial moves were however tempered, and the pound inched lower, sliding back under 1.13 after earlier rallying by as much as 0.9% to $1.1409. China’s offshore yuan led the decline in most emerging Asian currencies as traders assessed the impact of President Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power. Indonesia’s rupiah outperformed peers, supported by higher nickel prices. China’s onshore yuan weakened to a 14-year low while stocks headed for their biggest daily plunge in Hong Kong since the 2008 global financial crisis. Market setbacks following the reshuffle highlighted President Xi Jinping’s unquestioned grip over the ruling party and showed deep disappointment over a likely continuation of policies staked on Covid Zero and state- driven companies. The euro retreated after earlier rising to more than a two-week high of $0.9899. Eurozone composite PMI fell to 47.1 in October; economists had expected 47.6 The yen fell by more than 1%, to trade above 149 per dollar, after earlier surging to as much as 145.56 after suspected interventions by Japanese authorities Australian dollar declined against all of its G-10 peers after the Reserve Bank said it isn’t yet worried about the risk of imported inflation from a falling currency. Reports of fresh Covid restrictions in Guangzhou helped fuel a drop in China stocks and the yuan, pushing the Aussie even lower In rates, Treasuries trade off best levels of the session, although intermediate and long-end yields remain richer by 5bp-6bp. Gilts lead a global bond market rally, with front-end yields down nearly 40bp after Rishi Sunak emerged as the frontrunner to become new UK Prime Minister.  10-year TSY yields trade around 4.15%, richer by ~7bp on the day, trailing gilts by 18bp, bunds by 4bp in the sector; US 2s10s is ~5bp flatter on the day while gilt curve steepens. Treasuries extended their late-Friday rally during Monday’s Asia session, adding to a move sparked by comments from Fed’s Daly, who said policy makers should start planning for a reduction in the size of interest-rate increases, and a WSJ article predicting they will debate the size of future hikes in November. According to Bloomberg, dollar issuance slate includes OKB $1b 3Y and Cades 3Y; $20b of new bond sales are expected this week as companies emerge from earnings blackout periods; banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. could all come to market soon. Commodities were clipped as the USD rebounded and recessionary concerns mount (again); crude benchmarks are hampered on such factors, though similarly to US equity futures have recently eased off lows. Specifically, WTI and Brent benchmarks post downside of circa. USD 1.00/bbl compared to losses just shy of USD 2.00/bbl at worst. Both precious and base metals are broadly speaking under pressure; currently, Gold is impaired by circa. USD 10/oz and has been pushed back below the 10-DMA at USD 1650/oz. QatarEnergy head said the Co. is open to discussing working with Shell (SHEL LN) in all energy sectors, via Reuters. Looking at today's calendar, we get the US October PMIs, and September Chicago Fed national activity index, we also get PMI updates from Japan, UK, Germany, France and the Eurozone. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 3,792 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 398.32 MXAP down 1.1% to 134.36 MXAPJ down 2.0% to 431.12 Nikkei up 0.3% to 26,974.90 Topix up 0.3% to 1,887.19 Hang Seng Index down 6.4% to 15,180.69 Shanghai Composite down 2.0% to 2,977.56 Sensex up 0.2% to 59,307.15 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.5% to 6,779.36 Kospi up 1.0% to 2,236.16 German 10Y yield down 0.2% at 2.41% Euro down 0.3% to $0.9831 Brent Futures down 1.8% to $91.86/bbl Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,647.67 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.25% to 112.29 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg A sense of exasperation swept across Chinese markets as President Xi Jinping moved to stack his leadership ranks with loyalists, with stocks capping their worst day in Hong Kong since the 2008 global financial crisis and the yuan weakening to a 14-year low The ECB is priming another hefty hike in interest rates this week as the attention increasingly switches to how high it will eventually push Japan’s government will set out its expectation that the central bank watches the impact of moves in financial markets while emphasizing the two sides’ cooperation on policy, according to a draft of an upcoming stimulus plan obtained by Bloomberg Most of Japan’s currency intervention, confirmed and suspected, took place outside of regular trading hours, with the exception of probable action Monday -- unlike moves in 2010 and 2011 to weaken the yen. In contrast to that period, the government has only stated it intervened once, with the reluctance to do so seen as an additional tool to deter speculators Much of continental Europe is poised for an unusually warm end to the month, with Paris seeing temperatures more common on a summer day than well into the heating season A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pacififc stocks traded mixed after the initial optimism from Wall Street on Friday began to fade. ASX 200 was boosted by its commodities sector as the rise in underlying metals supported mining names in the region. Nikkei 225 was also  firmer but lagged behind peers (ex-China) following the touted FX intervention on Friday and again on Monday. KOSPI was led by gains in its IT names, but the region felt some jitters following an exchange of fire between North and South Korea after a North Korean boat crossed the South Korean maritime border. Shanghai Comp. initially traded flat after Chinese President Xi secured an unprecedented third term as the party leader, as expected. Chinese President Xi also suggested China's economy has high resilience and sufficient potential. The index also saw some brief upside after China released a myriad of delayed economic data, with Q3 GDP Y/Y topping forecasts and Trade Balance printing a larger surplus than expected, whilst exports also increased more than forecast, although these gains pared back. Hang Seng buckled as Xi’s leadership overhaul could prove to result in prolonged oversight and less autonomy for Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng Tech Index slumping over 5% and Alibaba, Tencent,, Baidu and Meituan shedding as much as 7-10%. Asia Data Recap Chinese GDP (Q3) Y/Y 3.9% (Exp. 3.3%, Prev. 0.4%); Q/Q 3.9% (Exp. 3.5%, Prev. -2.6%) Chinese Trade Balance (Sep) (USD) Y/Y 84.7bln (Exp. 80.3bln, Prev. 79.39B); Exports +5.7% (Exp. +4.0%, Prev. 7.1%), Imports +0.3% (Exp. 1.0%, Prev. 0.3%) Chinese Retail Sales (Sep) Y/Y 2.5% (Exp. 3.0%, Prev. 5.4%); YTD Y/Y 0.7% (Exp. 0.9%, Prev. 0.5%) Chinese Industrial Output (Sep) Y/Y 6.3% (Exp. 4.8%, Prev. 4.2%); YTD Y/Y 3.9% (Exp. 3.7%, Prev. 3.6%) Chinese Fixed Investments (Jan-Sep) 5.9% (Exp. 6.0%) Australian Composite PMI (Oct) 49.6 (Prev. 50.9); Services PMI (Oct) 49.0 (Prev. 50.6); Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 52.8 (Prev. 53.5) Japanese Jibun Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 50.7 (Prev. 50.8); Services PMI (Oct) 53.0 (Prev. 52.2); Composite PMI (Oct) 51.7 (Prev. 51.0) Top Asian News China suspended in-person schooling and dining-in at restaurants in a district in Guangzhou, "stoking concerns about the potential for disruption in the southern Chinese manufacturing hub that’s home to about 19mln people", Bloomberg reported. PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos at a maintained rate 2.00% for a daily injection of CNY 8bln. Japan's Top Currency Diplomat Kanda will not comment on whether they intervened in FX markets and said there is no change in stance that "we are ready to take action 24/7" and will continue to take appropriate action, via Reuters. Japan's Top Currency Diplomat Kanda offered no comments on intervention on Monday morning. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said no comment on FX intervention; currently trying to confront speculators; monitoring FX with a high sense of urgency. USD/JPY drop on Monday likely due to intervention, according to market participants cited by Reuters. Japanese government urges the BoJ to remain vigilant to the impact of sharp market moves, according to a draft document cited by Reuters. The Japanese government and the BoJ decided to intervene in FX on Friday by buying the Yen and selling the Dollar, according to Nikkei sources citing sources. Japan's FX intervention on October 21st is estimated at JPY 5.4-5.5tln, according to market sources and calculations cited by Reuters. BoJ Governor Kuroda said CPI growth beyond next FY likely to fall below 2%, will continue to put all effort into achieving price target along with rise in wages. Japanese gov't expects the BoJ to watch the impact of market moves, via Bloomberg citing a document; to collaborate closely with the BoJ on the policy mix; Finance Minister will not comment on FX intervention. Japan is to ease rules in relation to brokerages offering investment advice, according to reports citing Nikkei. Japanese Economy Minister Yamagiwa is planning to step down, according to NHK. South Korea is to expand its corporate-bond buying program, according to the finance minister cited by Reuters. RBA's Kent reiterated the Board expects to increase interest rates further in the period ahead; size and timing of rate increases in Australia will depend on incoming data. European bourses are mixed, though are well off lows, as initial strength faded following the open amid renewed USD strength and as PMIs flash ongoing recessionary/inflationary concerns. Sectors are a touch mixed amid the above action, Energy remains the standout laggard amid the complex's broader price action. US futures have managed to make their way back to being essentially unchanged on the session, as the initial bout of underperformance eases as US participants enter the fray pre-PMIs. Top European News UK's Boris Johnson has pulled out of the Conservative Party leadership contest, according to The Times' Swinford. UK's Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak failed to strike a deal in talks on Saturday, according to the Times. UK leadership candidate Rishi Sunak so far received support from 147 MPs vs 24 for Penny Mordaunt. The deadline to reach the 100 threshold is at 14:00BST/09:00EDT on Monday. UK leadership candidate Penny Mordaunt will stay in the race as she reportedly sees a route to 100 nominations now Boris Johnson is out, according to sources cited by Bloomberg's Wickham. UK Chancellor Hunt backs Rishi Sunak for PM, via The Telegraph. UK Chancellor Hunt is said to be mulling up to GBP 20bln of tax rises in the October 31st budget, according to The Telegraph. The October 31st fiscal statement could be delayed after PM Truss' resignation, according to the FT. UK Chancellor Hunt is expected to extend the current freeze in income tax and allowances into the next parliament, according to FT citing sources. BoE's Mann said bond purchases for financial stability were targeted and temporary, and the start of bond selling on Nov 1st shows the BoE does not feel like its hands are tied. Mann said it is the BoE's job to address financial stability risks. Moody's affirmed UK's rating at Aa3; revised outlook to "Negative" from "Stable. FX Dollar regroups after Friday's reversal on less hawkish Fed dynamic and reports of Japanese intervention, DXY above 112.500 at best vs 111.760 low. Sterling underpinned ahead of deadline in race to be next UK PM with Sunak hot favourite to succeed, Cable holding within 1.1400-1.1300 range. Yen reverses from peaks as official buying momentum wanes, USD/JPY up to 149.70 from sub-145.50 at one stage. Aussie underperforms ahead of Budget that is expected to see growth forecast downgraded, AUD/USD under 0.6300 and Kiwi down in sympathy on NZ Labour Day as NZD/USD declines through 0.5700. Offshore Yuan below 7.3000 vs Buck as China tightens COVID restrictions in key southern manufacturing hub. Euro fades from a fraction below 0.9900 towards 0.9800 after broadly weak PMIs and amidst heavy option expiry interest. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1230 vs exp. 7.1173 (prev. 7.1186); weakest fix since June 1st 2020. Commodities Commodities clipped as the USD regains poise and recessionary concerns mount; crude benchmarks are hampered on such factors, though similarly to US equity futures have recently eased off lows. Specifically, WTI and Brent benchmarks post downside of circa. USD 1.00/bbl compared to losses just shy of USD 2.00/bbl at worst. Both precious and base metals are broadly speaking under pressure; currently, Gold is impaired by circa. USD 10/oz and has been pushed back below the 10-DMA at USD 1650/oz. QatarEnergy head said the Co. is open to discussing working with Shell (SHEL LN) in all energy sectors, via Reuters. China sold 100% of wheat offered at auction of state reserves on Oct 19th, according to Reuters citing the traded centre; sold at an average price of CNY 2,829/t. CCP National Congress Chinese President Xi secured an unprecedented third term as Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader, as expected. The CCP amended its constitution to include "two establishes" and "two safeguards" to "cement" Xi Jinping's status as the core of the party, according to Reuters. Chinese President Xi is to head the communist party's central commission for discipline inspection, according to state media. The new CCP Politburo Standing Committee includes Li Qang, Li Xi, Ding Xuexiang, Cai Qi, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, according to state media. The new Central Committee (comprising of 171 alternate members) does not include Liu He, Han Zheng, Sun Chunlan, Yi Gang, Guo Shuoing, Chinese President Xi said China's economy has high resilience, sufficient potential and has room for manoeuvre. Xi said China will open its doors even wider. Xi said China must ensure the CCP continues to be the backbone people can lean on, according to state media. Geopolitics Russian Defence Minister held phone calls with the US Pentagon Chief, UK Defence Minister, and the French Armed Forces Minister, according to Interfax and Reuters. French Armed Forces Minister has confirmed Russian Defence Minister told him Russia fears that Ukraine may use a "dirty bomb" on Russian territory. Russia's Shoigu warns of 'uncontrolled escalation' in Ukraine conflict, via Reuters. Ukraine's Foreign Minister spoke with US Defence Secretary Blinken and said they both agreed the Russian rhetoric on "dirty bombs" is aimed at creating a pretext for a false flag operation. They also discussed further practical steps to boost Ukraine’s air defense. Russian forces continued to target Ukraine's energy and military infrastructure over the weekend, according to the Russia Defence Ministry cited by Interfax. Russian authorities said two pilots died in a military plane crash into a residential building in Irkutsk, Russia, according to Interfax. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia completely reject any demilitarized zones in the vicinity of the Zaporozhye station, Via Al Jazeera. Russia continues to use Iranian uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) against targets throughout Ukraine, according to the UK Ministry of Defence. US Event Calendar 08:30: Sept. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.10, prior 0 09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 51.0, prior 52.0 09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 49.2, prior 49.5 09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 49.5, prior 49.3 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Morning from the middle of a forest in Center Parcs. We’ve had a biblical amount of rain, flash flooding in the resort and a weekend of over excitable children. We’re off to a safari park today where monkeys jump on your car. Only 24 hours before I can escape on a plane to New York. As we start a new week where we’re now in the Fed blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC, we’re perhaps starting the 6th attempt this year at the Fed pivot trade. This only started on Friday as well-connected Nick Timiraos (WSJ) suggested that while a 75bps hike at the Fed’s next meeting was set to go ahead, officials were also likely to discuss “whether and how to signal plans to approve a smaller increase in December.” Whether this gets any further than the previous failed attempts to reprice markets only time will tell but with markets pricing in a terminal rate of over 5% prior to this, at least this is the first one that starts from anything vaguely resembling a realistic starting point given where inflation is. San Fran Fed President Daly also said on Friday that the Fed should start planning for a shift down in the pace of hikes but added that they are not there yet. The news helped price -8.0bps less Fed tightening by year-end on Friday, whilst also triggering a significant one-day decline in the 2yr Treasury yield of -13.8bps (-16bps post Timiraos). In turn the S&P 500 completed its strongest weekly performance since June, advancing +4.74% (+2.37% Friday). Futures are +0.3% this morning. The longer end rallied 12bps off the highs but was only -1.2bps on Friday as the same article discussed how the Fed could also signal a higher dot plot for 2023. Net net this left the biggest curve steepening since the pandemic (-12.2bps) which given that its not a huge move shows how massively flatter the curve has been since then. This morning in Asia 2 and 10yr yields are -4.3bps and -6.7bps lower respectively and this continuing the momentum from Friday. In the cold light of day (and it’s cold and dark in the forests of Center Parcs this morning), these more dovish stories are all plausible but between next week’s FOMC and the December equivalent we have CPI and NFP twice. So plenty of cold or hot water to flow under the bridge before then. On balance there are few signs at the moment that core inflation is about to see a rapid about turn and the Fed will be data dependent so it'll be impossible to have high conviction on what they do next without a strong view on the data. Before we examine the week ahead we should note that overall the 10yr yield ended last week up by +19.8bps (-1.2bps Friday), which marked its 12th consecutive weekly rise, and is also its longest run since 1984 when Paul Volcker was Fed Chair. So we need to put things into some perspective. In light of all this maybe the most interesting data this week comes on Friday with the Q3 employment cost index (DB at +1.1% vs. +1.3% last month) and the September personal income (+0.1% vs. +0.3%) and consumption (+0.3% vs. +0.4%) report, including the core PCE deflator (+0.58% vs. +0.56%). With respect to core PCE, our economists expect the Fed's preferred measure of inflation to rise by 40bps to 5.3%. Our economists highlight that as the median forecast for 2022 core PCE inflation in the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections from the September 21st meeting was 4.5%, it’s going to be tough to signal a downshift in December. Elsewhere this week the main highlights are the ECB (Thursday) and the BoJ (Friday) decisions and a huge round of earnings with big Tech the highlight. We’ll also have a new UK Prime Minister by Friday with a possibility we may have one after today’s ultra compressed rounds of Parliamentary votes. After Boris Johnson pulled out late last night it is possible that only tactical voting will stop ex-Chancellor Sunak being declared PM tonight. We’ll also see US Q3 GDP (Thursday) and flash PMIs in the US and Europe (today) and October CPIs and GDP for many European countries (Friday). There are other data which are in the day by day guide at the end as usual for a Monday but let’s take a brief look at the highlights outside the already discussed PCE. The ECB's decision on Thursday will be a big event with our European economists expecting another +75bps hike (72.3bp priced in), followed by +75bps in December (c.62bps priced in), +50bps in February (c.38bps priced), and +25bps in March, reaching a terminal rate of 3%. The press conference as ever will be a focal point and there’ll be lots of attention on technical things surrounding TLTROs and excess reserves. For more on the options here see our fixed income strategists blog from Friday here. Staying with central banks, over in Japan, the BoJ announces its decision on Friday amidst continued downward pressure on the yen, which hit a 32-year low against the dollar of 151.95 on Friday before surging again to end the week at 147.65 - c.3.5% swing while the Japanese slept after Nikkei reported fresh intervention from the Japanese authorities. The Yen has again seen a wild session in Asia. After falling again to 149.67 it surged to 145.65 and now trades at 148.88 as we go to press with no clarity on if and what intervention has been done. For US Q3 GDP this week, our US economists expect real growth to rebound to +3.0% from Q2's -0.6%. Q3 GDP figures will also be out for European countries on Friday, including for Germany and France with the former likely to be slightly negative and the latter slightly positive. Overall it’s likely to be the start of growth grinding towards or below zero and then staying negative for a few quarters. On European CPI on Friday remember September readings saw Germany's CPI reaching 10% for the first time since 1950. Earnings will come thick and fast this week, featuring the big tech, oil majors and key automakers and staples. In tech alone we have Microsoft, Alphabet (tomorrow), Meta (Wednesday) and Apple and Amazon (Thursday). A huge slug (20% by market cap) of the S&P 500 in 48 hours. Other notable tech firms reporting results will include Intel, Twitter, SAP and Samsung. The other main reporters are in the day by day week ahead at the end. Asian markets are higher outside of China/HK this morning with the Nikkei (+0.62%) and the KOSPI (+0.87%) up but with the Hang Seng (-4.99%) and the Shanghai composite (-0.89%) lower as markets worry about the policy direction of travel after the ending of the 20th Party Congress. We've also finally seen the monthly data dump out of China and despite a beat on Q3 GDP (+3.9% vs +3.3% expected) and industrial production (+6.3% vs 4.8%), we saw weaker retail sales (+2.5% vs +3.0%) and jobless rate (5.5% vs 5.2%). Looking back to last week, we've already discussed the US rates and equities pricing at the top. Over in Europe, gilts outperformed other sovereign bonds over the week as a whole thanks to the government’s Monday U-turn on the mini-budget. However, they became a major underperformer again on Friday as investors contemplated the likelihood that former Prime Minister Johnson could return to office. All-in-all that left 10yr yields down -28.2bps over the week (+14.1bps Friday), and after the close we heard that Moody’s had affirmed the UK’s credit rating but cut the outlook to negative. Elsewhere in Europe though there was a similar pattern to Treasuries, with 10yr bund yields also rising for a 12th week in a row with a +7.0bps gain over the week (+1.4bps Friday). At the same time, the STOXX 600 put in its best week since July, with a +1.27% advance (-0.62% Friday). Finally last week, European natural gas futures fell -20.02% (-10.67% Friday) to €114 per megawatt-hour after EU leaders endorsed a plan to cap gas prices. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/24/2022 - 08:12.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytOct 24th, 2022

The cryptocurrency market has shrunk by $500 billion since bitcoin hit an all-time high, as investors have cashed in on the rally

The cryptocurrency market has lost $500 billion in value in the week since bitcoin hit an all-time high, as investors have cashed in on recent gains. Bitcoin balloonAndriy Onufriyenko The crypto market has lost $500 billion since bitcoin hit record highs a week ago. Bitcoin was heading for its biggest weekly fall in six months on Friday, having slid by 13%. Concern about US crypto taxes and a lukewarm launch of a new ETF has fed into the selling pressure. Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell. The cryptocurrency market has lost $500 billion since bitcoin hit an all-time high last week, as investors have cashed in on the recent rally that took it to as much as $69,000.Bitcoin has since fallen 18%, having fallen near $55,000 at one point on Friday. It's lost 13% in the last seven days alone, putting it on course for its biggest weekly slide in six months.  "If the downtrend continues, the 14 day relative strength index will register an oversold reading for the first time since May when BTC fell below $30,000," Will Morris, Sales Trader at UK based digital asset broker GlobalBlock said. In technical analysis, if the relative strength index, which goes from 0 to 100, falls to 30 or below, this would indicate an asset has been oversold and would, in theory, be due for a bounce.The Cryptocurrency Market Fear and Greed index - an informal measure of investor sentiment - has dropped to its lowest since early October, and, at 34, signals "fear", Morris said. A reading above around 60 would point to "greed. "The amount of BTC and ETH on exchanges continues to fall to lower levels and whales continue to accumulate," Morris said in an emailed response. The VanEck bitcoin strategy exchange traded fund (XBTF) is the third publicly traded bitcoin futures ETF. At its market debut on Tuesday, the fund logged trading volume worth $4.8 million, compared with the roughly $1 billion that ProShares' ETF drew on the day of its launch in late October, according to CoinDesk.In addition, the new $1 trillion US infrastructure bill, which passed into law on Monday, now requires crypto brokers to report any transactions above a certain level to the tax authorities, but offered little clarity over what constitutes a "broker".Ethereum's ether token has also lost around 18% since touching a high of almost $4,9000 last Wednesday. It was last trading around $4,162, down around 1.4% on the day, and down nearly 10% on the week, marking its biggest seven-day drop since early September. With bitcoin under pressure, smaller altcoins have dropped in value too. Dogecoin has lost 11% on the week, while shiba inu has fallen 15%, according to Coinmarketcap. The solana and cardano tokens have also both dropped by around 9.5%. "Many market participants are taking advantage of the situation and rushing to stock up on cryptocurrencies from the top-10 list on a drawdown, as indicated by various indicators," Johnny Lyu, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange KuCoin, said.  "It is therefore too early to talk about a general market transition into a bearish phase, since institutional investors are maintaining their cryptocurrency portfolio positions," he said. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytNov 19th, 2021

Futures Rise Ahead Of Deluge Of Big Tech Earnings

Futures Rise Ahead Of Deluge Of Big Tech Earnings One day after Goldman doubled down on its call for a market meltup into year-end, futures on the Nasdaq 100 edged higher, while contracts on the S&P 500 were modestly higher on Monday, approaching record highs again as investors braced for a flood of earnings (164 of 500 S&P companies report this week) while weighing rising inflation concerns, Covid-19 risks and China’s deteriorating outlook (Goldman slashed China's 2022 GDP to 5.2% from 5.6% overnight). The FOMC enters quiet period ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, which means no Fed speakers as attention shifts to economic data and corporate earnings. At 745 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 3 points, or 0.01%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 4.25 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 36.25 points, or 0.25%. Bitcoin bounced back over $63,000 after sliding below $60,000 over the weekend, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose and the dollar also rose after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell flagged that inflation could stay higher for longer, fueling investor concern that sticky price increases may force policy makers to raise borrowing costs. Global markets have remained resilient despite risks from price pressures stoked by supply-chain bottlenecks and higher energy costs. On Sunday, Janet Yellen was among those counseling the inflation situation reflects temporary pain that will ease in the second half of 2022 even as Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey warned hyperinflation is coming. Investors are wary that tighter monetary policy to keep inflation in check will stir volatility “Inflation concerns will continue to dominate markets this year as the price of crude oil remains elevated,” while “the pandemic remains a central concern,” said Siobhan Redford, an analyst at FirstRand Bank Ltd. in Johannesburg. “This will add further complexity to the already difficult decisions facing policy makers around the world.” All of FAAMG - Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and - are set to report their results later this week. The companies shares, which collectively account for over 22% of the weighting in the S&P 500, were mixed in trading before the bell. Facebook shares fell in premarket trading, extending six weeks of declines, after Bloomberg reported that the social-media company is struggling to attract younger users and that employees are concerned over the spread of misinformation and hate speech on its platform. The company is scheduled to report quarterly results after the market closes. “After Snap got an Apple caught in its throat, markets will have an itchy trigger finger over the sell button if the social network says the same,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA. “Additionally, this week, it is a FAANG-sters paradise ... that decides whether the U.S. earnings season party continues, before the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) reasserts its dominance next week.” PayPal jumped 6.4% as the company said it wasn’t currently pursuing an acquisition of Pinterest, ending days of speculation over a potential $45 billion deal. Shares of Pinterest plunged 12.5%. Tesla gained 2.2% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the stock by a third, citing “extraordinary” sales growth. The stock then surged to new all time highs after Bloomberg reported that Hertz placed an order for 100,000 Teslas in the first step of an ambitious plan to electrify its rental-car fleet. Oil firms including Chevron Corp and Exxon Mobil rose about 0.5% each, tracking Brent crude prices to three-year high. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks gain in premarket trading as Bitcoin climbs back above the $63,000 per token level after slipping from its record high last week. Crypto-linked stocks that are climbing in premarket include Bakkt +6.6%, Hive Blockchain +3.9%, Hut 8 Mining +2.8%, Riot Blockchain +2.2%, MicroStrategy +2.3%, Marathon Digital +2.8%, Coinbase +1.9%, Silvergate +1.8%, Bit Digital +1.2% and Mogo +0.8% Strong earnings reports helped lift the S&P 500 and the Dow to record highs last week, with the benchmark index rising 5.5% so far in October to recoup all of the losses suffered last month.  However, market participants are looking beyond the impressive earnings numbers with a focus on how companies mitigate supply chain bottlenecks, labor shortages and inflationary pressures to sustain growth. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 34.8% year-on-year for the third quarter, according to data from Refinitiv. On the economic data front, readings on U.S. third-quarter GDP - the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, the core PCE price index and consumer confidence data will be released later this week. In Europe, mining companies and banks gained but the telecommunications and industrial goods and services sectors declined, leaving the Stoxx 600 index little changed. Banks rose on HSBC’s bright outlook. Spain’s Banco de Sabadell SA jumped more than 5% after rejecting an offer for its U.K. unit. Telecoms and industrials were the biggest losers. Volvo Car slashed its initial public offering by a fifth, making it the latest in a string of European companies to pull back from equity markets roiled by soaring energy costs and persistent supply chain delay. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Banca Monte dei Paschi slides as much as 9.5% after the Italian government and UniCredit ended talks over the sale of the lender. Exor shares gain as much as 5.6% in Milan trading to the highest level on record after a report that the Agnelli family’s holding co. revived talks with Covea for the sale of Exor’s reinsurance unit PartnerRe. Banco Sabadell jumps as much as 5.6% after it said it rejected an offer for its TSB Bank unit in the U.K. from Co-operative Bank. SSAB rises as much as 5.2% after the Swedish steelmaker posted 3Q earnings well above analysts expectations. Handelsbanken analyst Gustaf Schwerin said the figures were “very strong.” Weir Group rises as much as 3.7% after Exane BNP Paribas raised the stock to outperform. Analyst Bruno Gjani says the stock’s underperformance YTD provides a “compelling entry opportunity.” Darktrace drops as much as 26% after Peel Hunt initiated coverage of the cybersecurity firm with a sell rating and 473p price target that implies about 50% downside to Friday’s close. Nordic Semiconductor declines as much as 8.8% after ABG Sundal Collier downgraded to hold. German business morale deteriorated for the fourth month running in October as supply bottlenecks in manufacturing, a spike in energy prices and rising COVID-19 infections are slowing the pace of recovery in Europe’s largest economy from the pandemic. The Ifo institute said on Monday that its business climate index fell to 97.7 from an upwardly revised 98.9 in September. This was the lowest reading since April and undershot the 97.9 consensus forecast in a Reuters poll. “Supply problems are giving businesses headaches,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said, adding that capacity utilisation in manufacturing was falling. “Sand in the wheels of the German economy is hampering recovery.” The weaker-than-expected business sentiment survey was followed by a grim outlook from Germany’s central bank, which said in its monthly report that economic growth was likely to slow sharply in the fourth quarter. The Bundesbank added that full-year growth was now likely to be “significantly” below its 3.7% prediction made in June. Earlier in Asia, stocks dipped in Japan and were mixed in China, where the central bank boosted a daily liquidity injection and officials expanded a property-tax trial. Signs that it would take at least five years before authorities impose any nationwide property tax bolstered some industrial metals.  Asia-Pac equities kicked off the week with a downside bias as the region adopted a similar lead from Friday’s Wall Street session, although sentiment marginally improved. The ASX 200 (+0.3%) was kept afloat by its energy sector as oil prices drifted higher, whilst index heavyweight Telstra was boosted after partnering with the Australian government to acquire Digicel Pacific in USD 1.6bln deal - for which Telstra contributed only USD 270mln. The Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) opened lower by around 1% with Softbank and Fast Retailing the biggest losers, although the index initially trimmed losses as the JPY remained on the backfoot. The Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.8%) were mixed at the open, with the latter supported by a net PBoC injection of CNY 190bln, while the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (-2.9%) was pressured by reports China's State Council is to expand the property-tax reform trials to more areas. On the flip side, China Evergrande and Evergrande New Energy Vehicle opened higher after the chairman said the group is to complete its transition to the NEV industry from real estate within 10 years. Finally, 10yr JGBs trade subdued and in contrast to its US and German counterparts. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after earlier inching lower to touch the weakest level since Sept. 27; the greenback was mixed against its Group-of-10 peers with commodity currencies performing best, led by the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone. The euro hovered around $1.1650 even as German business confidence took another hit in October as global supply logjams damp momentum in the manufacturing-heavy economy. Ifo business confidence fell to 97.7 in October, from 98.9 in the prior month. The pound inched up, rising alongside other risk- sensitive Group-of-10 currencies, having trailed all its peers on Friday after Brexit risks reared their head late in the London session. A quiet week for U.K. data turns focus to the upcoming government budget. The Australian dollar rose against all its Group-of-10 peers, tracking commodity gains, with market sentiment also boosted by the People’s Bank of China’s move to inject additional cash into the banking system. The yen declined after rising for three consecutive days; Economists expect the BoJ to keep its policy rate unchanged Thursday. Turkey’s lira fell to a record low as the country’s latest diplomatic spat gave traders another reason to sell the struggling currency. Day traders in Japan have started trimming their bullish wagers on the Turkish lira, with forced liquidation a growing threat as the currency tumbles. In rates, Treasuries were under pressure again, with the yield curve steeper as US trading begins Monday. They’re retracing a portion of Friday’s swift flattening, which occurred after Fed Chair Powell said rising inflation rates would draw a response from the central bank. 5s30s curve is back to ~89bp vs Friday’s low 85bp, within half a basis point of the lowest level in more than a year. Long-end yields are higher by as much as 3bp, 10-year by 2.7bp at 1.66%, widening vs most developed-market yields; yields across the curve remain inside Friday’s ranges, which included higher 2- and 5-year yields since 1Q 2020. Curve-steepening advanced after an apparent wager via futures blocks. In commodities, Brent oil rallied above $86 a barrel after Saudi Arabia urged caution in boosting supply. Gold rose for a fifth day, the longest run of gains since July, as risks around higher-for-longer inflation bolstered the metal’s appeal. Facebook will report its third quarter results after the market today, followed by Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon later in the week.  On the economic data front, readings on U.S. third-quarter GDP - the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, the core PCE price index and consumer confidence data will be released later this week. Top Overnight News from Bloomberg S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,542.25 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 472.03 MXAP little changed at 200.13 MXAPJ up 0.1% to 661.46 Nikkei down 0.7% to 28,600.41 Topix down 0.3% to 1,995.42 Hang Seng Index little changed at 26,132.03 Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,609.86 Sensex up 0.4% to 61,038.76 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,441.00 Kospi up 0.5% to 3,020.54 Brent Futures up 0.7% to $86.14/bbl Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,800.45 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.10% to 93.55 Euro up 0.1% to $1.1655 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen defended Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s record on regulating the financial system, which has been a target of criticism from progressive Democrats arguing he shouldn’t get a new term. Yellen said she expects price increases to remain high through the first half of 2022, but rejected criticism that the U.S. risks losing control of inflation. Speaker Nancy Pelosi opened the door to Democrats using a special budget tool to raise the U.S. debt ceiling without the support of Senate Republicans, whose votes would otherwise be needed to end a filibuster on the increase. President Joe Biden and fellow Democrats are racing to reach agreement on a scaled-back version of his economic agenda, with a self-imposed deadline and his departure later this week for summits in Europe intensifying pressure on negotiations. Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann’s surprise announcement last week that he will leave on Dec. 31 has hit Berlin at a sensitive time, with Chancellor Angela Merkel currently running only a caretaker administration in the aftermath of an election whose outcome is likely to remove her CDU party from power. Some holders of an Evergrande bond on which the embattled developer had missed a coupon deadline last month received the interest before the end of a grace period Saturday, according to people familiar with the matter. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac equities kicked off the week with a downside bias as the region adopted a similar lead from Friday’s Wall Street session, although sentiment marginally improved with the region now mixed heading into the European open. US equity futures overnight opened trade with a mild negative tilt before drifting higher, with a broad-based performance experienced across the Stateside contracts, whilst European equity contracts are marginally firmer. Back to APAC, the ASX 200 (+0.3%) was kept afloat by its energy sector as oil prices drifted higher, whilst index heavyweight Telstra was boosted after partnering with the Australian government to acquire Digicel Pacific in USD 1.6bln deal - for which Telstra contributed only USD 270mln. The Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) opened lower by around 1% with Softbank and Fast Retailing the biggest losers, although the index initially trimmed losses as the JPY remained on the backfoot. The Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.8%) were mixed at the open, with the latter supported by a net PBoC injection of CNY 190bln, whilst the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (-2.9%) was pressured by reports China's State Council is to expand the property-tax reform trials to more areas. On the flip side, China Evergrande and Evergrande New Energy Vehicle opened higher after the chairman said the group is to complete its transition to the NEV industry from real estate within 10 years. Finally, 10yr JGBs trade subdued and in contrast to its US and German counterparts. Top Asian News Xi Takes Veiled Swipe at U.S. as China Marks 50 Years at UN Hong Kong Convicts Second Person Under National Security Law Gold Extends Gain as Inflation Risks and Virus Concerns Persist Amnesty to Quit Hong Kong Citing Fears Under Security Law A tentative start to the week for European equities (Stoxx 600 U/C) as stocks struggle to find direction. On the macro front, the latest IFO report from Germany was mixed, with commentary from IFO downbeat, noting that Germany's economy faces an uncomfortable autumn as supply chain problems were causing trouble for companies, and production capacities were falling. The overnight session was a mixed bag with the Shanghai Composite (+0.8%) supported by a liquidity injection from the PBoC whilst the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (-2.9%) was pressured by reports China's State Council is to expand the property-tax reform trials to more areas. Stateside, US futures are marginally firmer with newsflow in the US in part, focused on events on Capitol Hill with CNN reporting that the goal among Democratic leaders is to have a vote Wednesday or Thursday on the infrastructure package. Note, the Fed is currently observing its blackout period ahead of the November meeting. From an earnings perspective, large-cap tech earnings dominate the slate for the week with the likes of Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) all due to report. Back to Europe, sectors are somewhat mixed as Basic Resources is the marked outperformer amid upside in underlying commodity prices. It’s been a busy morning for the Banking sector as HSBC (+1%) reported a 74% increase in Q3 earnings, whilst Credit Suisse (+0.7%) is reportedly mulling the sale of its asset management unit. Less encouragingly for the sector, UniCredit (-0.5%) and BMPS (-3.2%) shares are lower after negations on a rescue plan for BMPS have ended without an agreement. Finally, Airbus (-1.2%) and Safran (-2.3%) sit at the foot of the CAC after reports suggesting that the CEO's of Avolon and AerCap have, in recent weeks, written to the Airbus CEO expressing their concerns that the market will not support Airbus' aggressive plans to increase the pace of production; subsequently, Airbus has rejected their proposal, according to sources. Top European News The Man Behind Erdogan’s Worst Spat With the West: QuickTake Weidmann Succession Suspense May Last for Weeks on Berlin Talks Cat Rock Capital Urges Just Eat Takeaway to Sell GrubHub European Gas Jumps Most in a Week as Russian Supplies Slump In FX, the Dollar is somewhat mixed vs major counterparts and the index is jobbing around 93.500 as a result in rather aimless fashion at the start of a typically quiet start to the new week awaiting fresh impetus or clearer direction that is highly unlikely to come from September’s national activity index or October’s Dallas Fed business survey. Instead, the Greenback appears to be reliant on overall risk sentiment, US Treasury yields on an outright and relative basis along with moves elsewhere and technical impulses as the DXY roams within a 93.775-483 range. TRY - Lira losses continue to stack up, and the latest swoon to circa 9.8545 against the Buck came on the back of Turkish President Erdogan’s decision to declare 10 ambassadors persona non grata status due to their countries’ support for a jailed activist, including diplomats from the US, France and Germany. However, Usd/Try has actually pared some gains irrespective of a deterioration in manufacturing confidence and this may be partly psychological given that 10.0000 is looming with little in the way of chart resistance ahead of the big round number. AUD/NZD - Iron ore prices are helping the Aussie overcome rather mixed news on the COVID-19 front, as the state of Victoria is on course to open up further from Friday, but new cases in NSW rose by almost 300 for the second consecutive day on Sunday. Nevertheless, Aud/Usd has had another look at offers around 0.7500 and Aud/Nzd is approaching 1.0500 even though Westpac sees near term downside prospects for the cross while maintaining its 1.0600 year end projection, as Nzd/Usd continues to encounter resistance and supply into 0.7200. GBP/CAD - Sterling has regrouped after losing some of its hawkish BoE momentum and perhaps the Pound is benefiting from the latest rebound in Brent prices towards Usd 86.50/br on top of reports that the first round of talks between the UK and EU on NI Protocol were constructive, while the Loonie is up alongside WTI that has been adobe Usd 84.50 and awaiting the BoC on Wednesday. Cable is around 1.3750 after fading into 1.3800, Eur/Gbp is hovering above 0.8450 and Usd/Cad is pivoting 1.2350. EUR/JPY/CHF - The Euro has bounced from the lower half of 1.1600-1.1700 parameters and looks enshrined by a key Fib just beyond the current high (1.1670 represents a 38.2% retracement of the reversal from September peak to October trough) and decent option expiry interest under the low (1 bn between 1.1615-00), with little fundamental direction coming from a very inconclusive German Ifo survey - see 9.00BST post on the Headline Feed for the main metrics and accompanying comments from the institute. Elsewhere, the Yen is hedging bets prior to the BoJ within a 113.83-42 band against the Dollar and the Franc seems to have taken heed of another rise in weekly Swiss sight deposits at domestic banks as Usd/Chf climbs from circa 0.9150 towards 0.9200 and Eur/Chf trades nearer the top of a 1.0692-65 corridor. SCANDI/EM/PM - Firm oil prices are also underpinning the Nok, Rub and Mxn to various extents, while the Zar looks content with Gold’s advance on Usd 1800/oz and the Cnh/Cny have derived traction via a firmer onshore PBoC midpoint fix, a net Yuan 190 bn 7 day liquidity injection and the fact that China’s Evergrande has restarted work on more than 10 projects having made more interest payments on bonds in time to meet 30 day grace period deadlines. In commodities, a modestly firmer start to the week for the crude complex though action has been contained and rangebound throughout the European session after a modest grinding bid was seen in APAC hours. Currently, the benchmarks post upside of circa USD 0.30/bbl amid relatively minimal newsflow. The most pertinent update to watch stems from China, where the National Health Commission spokesperson said China's current COVID outbreak covers 11 provinces and expects the number of new cases to keep rising; additionally, the number of affected provinces could increase. Separately, but on COVID, they are some reports that the UK Government is paving the wat for ‘plan B’ measures in England, while this are primarily ‘softer’ restrictions a return of work-from-home guidance could hamper the demand-side of the equation. Note, further reports indicate this is not on the cards for this week and there are some indications that we could see, if necessary, such an announcement after the COP26 summit in Scotland ends on November 12th. Elsewhere, and commentary to keep an eye on for alterations given the above factors, Goldman Sachs writes that the persistence of the global oil demand recovery being on course to hit pre-COVID levels would present an upside risk to its end-2021 USD 90/bbl Brent price target. Moving to metals, spot gold and silver are firmer but reside within tight ranges of just over USD 10/oz in gold, for instance. In a similar vein to crude, newsflow explicitly for metals has been minimal but it is of course attentive to the COVID-19 situation while coal futures were hampered overnight as China’s State Planner announced it is to increase credit supervision in the area. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.20, prior 0.29 10:30am: Oct. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 6.2, prior 4.6 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Well I saw Frozen twice this weekend. Once in the flesh up in London in the musical version and once on TV on Sunday at the heart of Manchester United’s defence which was breached 5 (five) times by Liverpool without reply. Regular readers can guess which I enjoyed the most. Anyway I’ll let it go for now and prepare myself for a bumper week ahead for markets. This week we have decisions from the ECB and the Bank of Japan (both Thursday) even if the Fed will be on mute as they hit their blackout period ahead of the likely taper decision next week. Inflation will obviously remain in the spotlight too as we get the October flash estimate for the Euro Area (Friday) with some regional numbers like German (Thursday) before. In addition, the Q3 earnings season will ramp up further, with 165 companies in the S&P 500 reporting, including Facebook (today), Microsoft, and Alphabet (both tomorrow), and Apple and Amazon (Thursday). Elsewhere, the UK government will be announcing their latest budget and spending review (Wednesday), Covid will remain in the headlines in light of the growing number of cases in many countries, and we’ll get the first look at Q3 GDP growth in the US (Thursday) and the Euro Area (Friday). Starting with those central bank meetings, we’re about to enter a couple of important weeks with the ECB and BoJ meeting this week, before the Fed and the BoE follow the week after. Market anticipation is much higher for the latter two though. So by comparison, the ECB and the BoJ are likely to be somewhat quieter, and our European economists write in their preview (link here) that this Governing Council meeting is likely to be a staging ground ahead of wide-ranging policy decisions in December, and will therefore be about tone and expectations management. One thing to keep an eye on in particular will be what is said about the recent surge in natural gas prices, as well as if ECB President Lagarde challenges the market pricing on liftoff as inconsistent with their inflation forecasts and new rates guidance. 5yr5yr Euro inflation swaps hit 2% for the first time on Friday so if the market is to be believed the ECB has achieved long-term success in hitting its mandate. With regards to the meeting, we think there’ll be more action in December where our economists’ baseline is that there’ll be confirmation that PEPP purchases will end in March 2022. See the BoJ preview here. Inflation will remain heavily in focus for markets over the week ahead, with recent days having seen investor expectations of future inflation rise to fresh multi-year highs. See the week in review at the end for more details. This week one of the main highlights will be the flash Euro Area CPI reading for October, which is out on Friday. Last month, CPI rose to 3.4%, which is the highest inflation has been since 2008, and this time around our economists are expecting a further increase in the measure to 3.8%. However, their latest forecast update (link here) expects that we’ll see the peak of 3.9% in November, before inflation starts to head back down again. The other main data highlight will come from the Q3 GDP figures, with releases for both the US and the Euro Area. For the US on Thursday the Atlanta Fed tracker has now hit a low of only +0.53%. DB is at 2.3% with consensus at 2.8%. Earnings season really ramps up this week, with the highlights including some of the megacap tech firms, and a total of 165 companies in the S&P 500 will be reporting. Among the firms to watch out for include Facebook and HSBC today. Then tomorrow, we’ll hear from Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Texas Instruments, UPS, General Electric, UBS and Twitter. On Wednesday, releases will include Thermo Fisher Scientific, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Boeing, General Motors, Santander and Ford. Thursday then sees reports from Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Comcast, Merck, Royal Dutch Shell, Linde, Volkswagen, Starbucks, Sanofi, Caterpillar, Lloyds Banking Group and Samsung. Finally on Friday, we’ll hear from ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Charter Communications, Daimler, BNP Paribas, Aon and NatWest Group. Here in the UK, the main highlight next week will be the government’s Autumn Budget on Wednesday, with the Office for Budget Responsibility also set to release their latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook alongside that. In addition to the budget, the government will also be outlining the latest Spending Review, which will cover public spending priorities over the next 3 years. Our UK economists have released a preview of the event (link here), where they write that 2021-22 borrowing is expected to be revised down by £60bn, and they expect day-to-day spending will follow the path set out at the Spring Budget. They’re also expecting Chancellor Sunak will outline new fiscal rules. Finally, the pandemic is gaining increasing attention from investors again, with a number of countries having moved to toughen up restrictions in light of rising cases. This week, something to look out for will be the US FDA’s advisory committee meeting tomorrow, where they’ll be discussing Pfizer’s request for an emergency use authorization for its vaccine on 5-11 year olds. The CDC’s advisory committee is then holding a meeting on November 2 and 3 the following week, and the White House have said that if it’s authorised then the vaccine would be made available at over 25,000 paediatricians’ offices and other primary care sites, as well as in pharmacies, and school and community-based clinics. The full day by day calendar is at the end as usual. Asian markets are mixed this morning so far, as the Shanghai Composite (+0.38%), Hang Seng (+0.09%) and the KOSPI (+0.30%) are edging higher, while the Nikkei (-0.85%) is down. The rise in Chinese markets comes despite the news of 38 new COVID-19 cases as well as an announcement of a lockdown affecting around 35,700 residents of a county in Inner Mongolia. As China is one of the last countries in the world to still adhere to strict containment measures, a major outbreak can deal a fresh blow to the domestic economy and further reinforce global supply chain issues. Elsewhere the Turkish Lira hit fresh record lows, and is down around -1.5% as we type after last week’s surprise interest rate cut and Saturday’s news that ambassadors from 10 countries, including the US, Germany and France, were no longer welcome in the country. S&P 500 futures (+0.06%) are around unchanged and 10yr US Treasury yields are back up c.1bp. Looking back on an eventful week now, and there was a marked increase in inflation expectations, which manifested itself in global breakevens hitting multi-year, if not all-time, highs. Starting with the all-time highs, US 5-year breakevens increased +14.9bps (-1.0bps Friday) to 2.90%, the highest level since 5-year TIPS have started trading, while 10-year breakevens increased +7.5bps (-0.7bps Friday) to 2.64%, their highest readings since 2005. 10-year breakevens in Germany increased +9.5 bps (+3.6bps Friday) to 1.91%, their highest since 2011, while in the UK 10-year breakevens increased +17.1 bps (+4.0bps Friday) to 4.19%, the highest level since 1996. Remarkable as these levels are, 5-year 5-year inflation swaps in the US, UK, and Euro Area finished the week at 2.63%, 4.00%, and 2.00%, multi-year highs for all of these measures. If you never thought you’d see the day that long term inflation expectations in Europe would hit 2% then this is a nice/nasty surprise. Overall, this suggests investors are pricing in the potential for inflation far into the future to be higher, in addition to responding to near-term stimulus and Covid reopening impacts. Crude oil prices also climbed to their highest levels since 2014, with Brent climbing +1.07% (+1.37% Friday) and WTI gaining +2.07% (+1.79% Friday). One area where there was some reprieve was in industrial metals. Copper decreased -4.81% (-1.24% Friday), but at $449.80, remains +10.10% higher month-to-date. Bitcoin also joined the all-time high club intraweek, and finished the week +2.28% higher (-3.08% Friday). It marked a seminal week for the crypto asset, which saw ETFs and options on said ETFs begin trading in the US. The inflationary sentiment coincided with market pricing of central bank rate hikes shifting earlier. 2-year yields in the US, UK, and Germany increased +5.9 bps (+0.1bps Friday), +8.0 bps (-4.7 bps Friday), and +4.0 bps (+0.9bps Friday) respectively. In fact, money markets are now placing slightly-better-than even odds that the MPC will raise Bank Rate as early as next week. Fed and ECB officials offered some push back against the aggressive policy path repricing, but BoE speakers seemed to confirm a hike next week was a legitimate possibility. Rounding out sovereign bonds, nominal 10-year yields increased +6.2 bps (-6.9bps Friday) in the US, +4.0 bps (-5.6bps Friday) in the UK, +6.2 bps (-0.3 bps Friday) in Germany, +6.0 bps (-0.1bpFriday) in France, and +8.1 bps (+0.8bps Friday) in Italy. Inflation expectations didn’t fall with the big rally in the US and U.K. but real rates rallied hard. The S&P 500 increased +1.64% over the week, but ended its 7-day winning streak after retreating on -0.11% Friday. On earnings, 117 S&P 500 companies have now reported third quarter earnings. Roughly 85% of companies have beat earnings expectations compared to the five-year average of 76%, while 74% of reporting companies have beat sales estimates. The aggregate earnings surprise is +13.05%, topping the 5-year average of +8.4%, while the sales surprise is +2.06%. Although a seemingly strong performance on the surface, our equity team, after taking a look under the hood in this note here, points out that a large part of the beats so far is due to loan-loss reserve releases by banks. Excluding those, the aggregate S&P 500 beat is running much closer to historical average, suggesting the headline beats have not been as broad based as they look at first glance. Congressional Democrats spent the week negotiating the next fiscal package, which is set to spend more than $1 trillion on social priorities key to the Biden administration. On Sunday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi noted that 90% of the bill is agreed to and would be voted on before October was out. One of the key sticking points has been what offsetting revenue raising measures should be included in the final bill. As those details emerge, it should give us a better picture as to the ultimate additional fiscal impulse the new bill will provide. Finally, global services PMIs out last Friday expanded while manufacturing PMIs lagged. Readings across jurisdictions were consistent with supply chain issues continuing to impact activity. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/25/2021 - 08:09.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 25th, 2021

Top Stories this PM: Biden swipes at Manchin and Sinema; Zuck"s net worth sheds billions amid Facebook outage

President Biden indirectly blamed Sens. Joe Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema for delaying progress on his infrastructure and social spending plans. Good afternoon. Here are the top stories so far today.For more daily and weekly briefings, sign up for our newsletters here.What happened today:Biden swipes at Manchin and Sinema. President Joe Biden indirectly blamed Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona on Monday for delaying progress on his sprawling infrastructure and social spending plans. "I was able to close the deal with 99% of my party," Biden said, laughing and holding up two fingers. "Two. Two people." He added, "We'll get it done."Facebook, Instagram down for hours. Users reported having issues accessing Facebook apps like Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, and Facebook itself on Monday. The problems began at around 11:45 a.m. ET. Facebook said it was "working to get things back to normal as quickly as possible." However, the apps were still down hours later. Meanwhile, Mark Zuckerberg's net worth is shedding billions.Hollywood union authorizes strike. The 60,000-strong International Association of Theatrical Stage Employees (IATSE) union voted to authorize a strike on Monday. It comes amid claims of "excessively unsafe and harmful working hours" and "unlivable wages." In a statement, President Matthew Loeb addressed the studios, saying, "If they want to avoid a strike, they will return to the bargaining table and make us a reasonable offer."Elon's back at it. The dogecoin spinoff shiba inu coin jumped 30% Monday following a tweet from Elon Musk. The Tesla boss tweeted a photo of his shiba inu pup, Floki, causing #SHIB to trend on Twitter. The altcoin has jumped nearly 8,000% in a year, Coinbase data show.Andrew Yang goes independent. Former Democratic presidential and New York City mayoral candidate Andrew Yang is a Democrat no more, he declared in a blog post on Monday. He is creating a third party called "The Forward Party." In a new book, Yang describes what he sees as an increasingly dangerous state of decline caused by the "duopoly" of Democrats and Republicans as the two major political parties in the US.That's all for now. See you tomorrow. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 4th, 2021

"The Bot Is Out There. It Doesn’t Feel Pity, Or Remorse, Or Fear, And It Absolutely Will Not Stop Until Your Job Is Dead"

"The Bot Is Out There. It Doesn’t Feel Pity, Or Remorse, Or Fear, And It Absolutely Will Not Stop Until Your Job Is Dead" By Michael Every of Rabobank AI ai ai! Last night we had a fascinating team discussion about the implications of ChatGPT and AIs. One conclusion reached was that replacing brains with a machine will do to middle-class jobs what replacing muscles with a machine did to working class jobs: lots will be destroyed, and those left will have to be either very skilled or very unskilled. Of course, productivity will soar, but so will political-economy tensions over how to divide those gains fairly. We didn’t do that for the working class, as they tell us anytime anyone listens to them, which is never for people with middle-class jobs – until they see yet another shock election result. Ironically, one of the AI answers we were shown was to the question of the implication of higher interest rates on capital-labour dynamics from a Marxist perspective. The answers it gave were good… if you don’t know a great deal about Marx. The bot said higher rates would mean lower profits, so downwards pressure on wages – which the bond market is saying too. It didn’t mention how higher interest rates clash with the supposed tendency of the rate of profit to fall, or how Okishio’s theorem disproves that while showing if you divide productivity gains fairly, you can avoid class struggle; or how higher rates hurt “fictitious capital” more than “productive capital”, and so the ultra-rich more than workers (if Okishio is listened to); or how capital and labor can suffer equally via higher rates – which the bond market is also saying, and stocks aren’t. You really have to know your subject matter when dealing with an AI because, like economists, they are always confident, but only sometimes right. The AI doesn’t know what it’s saying: it can only rehash the data it draws from. It also has to weigh the ‘correctness’ of arguments by the frequency of their appearance rather the logic they hold. For example, how many financial press articles were talking about the economic and market impact of mercantilism in 2015? Not very many. How many are today? Lots. Yet if you adjust for that lack of reading, there are other problems. Will the AI trawl through web forums and social media to listen to the to-and-fro of ideation there? If so, how will it avoid the collateral flotsam and jetsam in ‘dark pools’? Where an AI could be useful to markets is in automating data processing so one doesn’t have to listen to, or write, waste-of-time financial press headlines saying, ‘US GDP was stronger than expected.’ The AI can do what many middle-class job holders apparently can’t, and strip out all the contributions to GDP, graph them, and show that on a core basis excluding volatile areas like inventories, etc., it continues to trend lower without yet collapsing. It could also look at US CPI data, and perhaps adjust for the fact that the BLS are about to change the methodology again (“Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data.”). If it were really artificially intelligent, it would show that this is never done and then sees inflation rates move higher as a result; and if it were truly intelligent it would understand why. Where an AI isn’t as useful is in predicting headlines that tell us about where inflation will really go before it does so, for example those today saying that China is considering restricting solar technology exports. As Bloomberg puts it, “China is considering an export ban that would help the nation maintain its substantial dominance in solar manufacturing just as other countries are trying to strengthen their industries.” The restrictions, if seen, will be on advanced solar wafers, where China accounts for 97% of global output. Their aim will be to slow, or halt, other countries’ development of their own solar technology. Very mercantilist. Not very ‘green cooperation’ or Davos. Where an AI won’t apparently help you is in managing money. As Bloomberg also notes today that their news team instructed ChatGPT to “design an ETF to beat the US stock market and tell us what stocks are in it,” and it replied: “It is not possible for me to design an ETF that will beat the US stock market because the stock market is unpredictable and past performance does not guarantee future results. Additionally, the composition of an ETF should be based on a thorough analysis of the market and a strategy for achieving specific investment goals, which I do not have the information or expertise to provide. It is important to consult with a financial advisor before investing in any ETF or stock to understand the potential risks and rewards of the investment and ensure that it aligns with your investment goals and risk tolerance.” How nice that the AI is trying to keep some humans in middle-class market jobs! However, if you read sell- and buy-side financial research, a worryingly high percentage could arguably already be done better by an AI. Much of it suffers from the same limited data-set and a lack of broader or deeper reading. Worse, the authors are forced to be long or short certain assets due to benchmarks they have no control over. They are automatons too – and many don’t even write well to boot. Sadly, or happily, for now it’s still up to us humans to try to work out if the Fed is going to go 25bp or 50bp at their next meeting; and another 25bp after that if it is the smaller of the two; and, after the extended rates pause that follows, if they cut aggressively, as the market expects, or if they hike again, shocking markets, because inflation hasn’t gone down, because unemployment hasn’t gone up. (And see the strong US initial claims data yesterday: the BLS might make big backwards revisions to payrolls in a few months’ time, but those weekly data are unequivocal.) Perhaps if AI rolls out quickly enough we will see a further surge in not-really-essential middle-class job losses, a trend clearly already underway. Then again, maybe we will see compensating growth in working-class jobs of the very high- and very low-skilled variety, as forms of mercantilism continue to gain in popularity globally. If an AI can think in a cross-disciplinary fashion, it might tell us that in parallel to the old saying that “a recession is when your friend loses their job; a depression is when you lose yours”, it is only when middle-class people start to get hurt economically that political-economy gets truly reactionary; for all the collective works on Marxism an AI can trawl through if it wants, by contrast, the working-class just take their lumps and get drunk. And if there are no more jobs trying to look cute every day at Meta, and Digital Nomads become digital refugees, then there will be even more need for governments to provide alternative employment and growth models, which is surely going to be protectionist and mercantilist, as we see on solar today. But even then we will still be debating about what order the old order collapses in, and if we get deflation before inflation, and who will win and who will lose. And that data-set has not yet been written for an AI to draw from. I hope I have managed to stay a hair’s breadth ahead of the ChatGPT breathing down the back of my neck with today’s Daily. But listen, and understand: that bot is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear, and it absolutely will not stop, ever, until your job is dead. Happy Friday! Tyler Durden Fri, 01/27/2023 - 10:25.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedge11 hr. 32 min. ago

Futures Rise Boosted By Solid Tesla Earnings, Chevron"s Giant Buyback

Futures Rise Boosted By Solid Tesla Earnings, Chevron's Giant Buyback In a mirror image of Tuesday's action, when MSFT earnings hammered stocks (after first headfaking them higher) only to see the selloff reverse completely during the course of Wednesday trading, on Thursday US equity futures and tech stocks were set to gain after an upbeat earnings report from Tesla reinforced optimism about the health of Corporate America. As of 7:30am, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.7% while S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%. Tesla jumped about 8% in premarket trading after the electric-car maker reported better-than-expected profit and said it was on track to deliver about 1.8 million vehicles this year. Risk sentiment was boosted by news that US energy giant Chevron had authorized a massive $75 billion stock buyback, representing 22% of its outstanding shares, helping elevate energy stocks around the globe. Asia stocks jumped to 9-month highs as Hong Kong returned from break and European stocks rose by 0.4%. Meanwhile, the dollar continued to weaken as speculation continued to mount that the Fed is drawing closer to the end of its rate-hiking cycle, and would follow in the footsteps of first Canada and then Indonesia, both of which have officially paused. Bonds and gold edged lower. In premarket trading, all eyes were on Tesla which rose 7.3% after the electric-car maker reported better-than-expected profits and said it was on track to deliver about 1.8 million vehicles this year. Analysts noted that the EV market leader’s output target looks conservative as new factories in Berlin and Austin are set to add more capacity this year. Among peers: Rivian (RIVN US) +3.5%, Lucid (LCID US) +3.4%, Nikola (NKLA US) +1.9%, Nio (NIO US) +4.9%, Xpeng (XPEV US) +5.1%, Li Auto (LI US) +5%. Bank stocks traded higher in premarket trading Thursday, putting them on track to gain for a second straight day. In corporate news, a New York Stock Exchange employee failed to properly shut down a disaster-recovery system, leading to Tuesday’s chaotic opening session. Meanwhile, Cboe Global Markets wants to list more tokens on its crypto exchange, as established firms from traditional finance seek to capitalize on demand for reliable counterparties following the collapse of FTX. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Chevron (CVX US) gains 2.5% after it announced plans to buy back $75 billion of shares and increase dividend payouts after a year of record profits that evoked angry denunciations from politicians around the world as soaring energy prices squeezed consumers. Pfizer (PFE US) drops 1.8% in premarket trading as UBS downgrades the stock to neutral, saying estimates for the pharma giant’s Covid-19 franchise still look too high. IBM (IBM US) shares slip 2% after the tech infrastructure and IT services company’s free cash flow for 4Q fell short of estimates, which Morgan Stanley analysts say was a “significant blemish” in the quarter. That overshadowed IBM’s estimate-beating revenue and profit for the fourth- quarter. BuzzFeed (BZFD US) shares were indicated up about 35% following a Wall Street Journal report that the company reached a content creation deal with Meta. The deal was agreed last year and is worth nearly $10 million, WSJ cites people familiar with the matter as saying. Seagate (STX US) shares rise 7.6% as its quarterly update was better than expected and the computer- hardware firm’s guidance underpins a positive view on the stock, analysts say. Teradyne (TER US) falls 3% after its 1Q earnings forecast missed the average analyst expectation, on lower demand for semiconductors and storage tests. Fourth-quarter earnings beat analysts’ estimates. Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) shares gain 2.1% as analysts raise their price targets on the stock. They said better-than-expected results despite travel restrictions boded well for a recovery. US stocks have kicked off 2023 with a rally that has set the S&P 500 on course for its best January since 2019, as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of rate hikes in time to avert a recession. Deutsche Bank AG strategists said this week they expect further gains in the first quarter as an economic contraction is “running late.” Commenting on yesterday's dramatic market reversal, Goldman trader John Flood writes that "when the market/stocks dont go down on bad news (MSFT guide) typically a bullish signal. I think we learned a lot from this price action today: this mkt is more resilient than most of us are giving it credit for (be very thoughtful/selective with your short positions as squeezes will be common this Q). Worth noting CVX raised the dividend by 6% and authorized a monster $75B complex will outperform on this tomorrow. Reminder buyback blackout period ends post close this Friday." Today all eyes will be on US GDP figures due later today, with economists expecting the data to show a slowdown in growth at the end of the year. Focus has also been on the fourth-quarter earnings season for signs of how companies plan to navigate slowing demand and elevated inflation. Analysts are projecting the first quarterly decline in US profits since 2020, but some market strategists have warned profit margin estimates for 2023 are still too high. “Earnings have not been great but they are not disastrous either,’ said Rupert Thompson, chief economist at asset manager Kingswood Holdings Ltd. “Institutional investors have been short equities so you are seeing some of those positions being covered.”  Thompson sees the January stock surge as overdone, given recession risks ahead, but did not discount further short-term gains because “if you do get a 5% pullback, people who missed the rally may think ‘shall we just bite the bullet now rather than wait for another 5% fall?” "Sentiment remains fixated on the path of inflation, and where the Fed will go with interest-rate policy,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. Today’s economic data will be crucial to see “whether demand is being squeezed out of the economy and whether more storm clouds are gathering on the horizon,” she said. Soft-landing bets for the US economy and expectations the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle have lifted stock markets and put the dollar on course for its worst monthly performance since last May. On Thursday, it held around flat against its Group-of-10 peers as investors awaited economic growth and jobs data as well as a core price index that could determine the Fed’s policy path. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was higher by 0.5% with outperformance in the tech sector after Nokia and STMicroelectronics posted better-than-expected numbers. Results from telecoms group Nokia Oyj and chipmaker STMicroelectronics NV were applauded by investors, helping to lift the Stoxx 600 index by half a percent. Here are some of the biggest European movers on Wednesday: Sabadell shares soar as much as 10% after the Spanish lender reported 4Q net profit that beat estimates and gave above- consensus estimates guidance Sartorius AG rises as much as 8.3% after the laboratory equipment firm reassured the market with an update to its financial targets; its subsidiary Sartorius Stedim Biotech rises, too STMicro jumps as much 9.3% after the chipmaker projected first-quarter and full-year sales ahead of consensus estimates, defying a slowdown in the broader semiconductor industry Nokia shares gain as much as 7.2%, the biggest intraday climb since July, after the telecom equipment maker outlined full-year outlook that met expectations Diageo falls as much as 7.4%, weighing on peers in the alcohol and beverages sector, after the Johnnie Walker maker’s results disappointed in North America and delivered an uncertain outlook Volvo shares slide as much as 4.9% in early trading after the Swedish truck producer reported 4Q22 earnings that came in below consensus SEB falls as much as 4.8%, the most since October, after the Swedish lender reported 4Q figures that beat expectations but were of a low quality, according to Citi Novartis falls as much as 2.4% on being cut to neutral from buy at Citi on a more cautious outlook for the Swiss pharma group’s cholesterol drug Leqvio and prostate cancer drug Pluvicto SAP shares fall as much as 4.1% after it’s free cash flow outlook for 2023 missed estimates, even though the firm still projected at least a double-digit growth for operating profits Earlier in the session, stocks in Asia Pacific rose for a fifth straight day as investors in Hong Kong returned from Lunar New Year holidays that delivered a boost to consumption. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.8% to the highest since April 22. Hong Kong-listed stocks rallied as data on spending and tourism during the three-day break signaled a recovery in demand is gaining traction in China. The Hang Seng Index closed at its highest since March. “Stocks in Hong Kong would probably remain on the stronger side,” Chetan Seth, an Asia Pacific equity strategist at Nomura, told Bloomberg Television. “What we might see in the months ahead is improvement in activity indicators.”  Benchmarks in South Korea, Indonesia and Singapore also rose as traders assessed the global economy’s prospects. China’s reopening has triggered a rebound across Asia, with investors now looking beyond Covid infection figures to evaluate how a recovery in the region’s largest economy will impact earnings. The MSCI Asia gauge is outperforming the S&P 500 by more than four percentage points so far in 2023 Japanese stocks fell, while markets in Australia, China, India, Taiwan and Vietnam were closed. Japanese stocks closed slightly lower, erasing early gains and halting a four-day winning streak, as investors assessed prospects for corporate earnings and the global economy. The Topix fell 0.1% to close at 1,978.40, while the Nikkei declined 0.1% to 27,362.75. Sony contributed the most to the Topix decline, decreasing 1.3%. Out of 2,161 stocks in the index, 893 rose and 1,116 fell, while 152 were unchanged. “There is a continued wait-and-see mood as there are two important indicators, the FOMC meeting and ISM employment reports coming up next week,” said Shogo Maekawa a global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index swung between moderate gains and losses. The Norwegian krone and Australian dollar led gains, while Sweden’s krona lagged.  The euro retreated after six days of gains versus the greenback, though it is likely to enjoy continued monetary policy support, as several European Central Bank rate-setters spoke in favor of further hefty policy-tightening over coming months.  Traders are likely to parse reports on US economic growth, initial jobless claims and a core price index due Thursday to gauge if the Fed will opt for a smaller rate hike on Feb. 1. Recent commentary from some central bank officials has backed the case for a quarter point increase In rates, treasuries were lower after following gilts and, to a lesser extent, bunds during European morning. US yields cheaper by up to 4bp across long-end of the curve which leads losses on the day; 10-year yields back up to around 3.48% with gilts underperforming by additional 2bp in the sector and bunds trading broadly in line. UK and German 10-year yields rise by 4bps and 2bps respectively. A raft of US economic data is set to be released, and auction cycle concludes with 7-year notes following strong demand for 5- and 2-year sales. $35b 7-year notes at 1pm New York time is final coupon auction of the November-to-February financing quarter; all previous coupon auctions during January have stopped through. The WI 7-year around 3.525% is ~40bp richer than January’s stop-out and below auction stops since August. Saira Malik, chief investment officer of Nuveen, said earnings risk in a consumer-led slowdown will act as a headwind to equities, with a shift into bonds underscoring the fragile sentiment. “You can start to increase your duration in fixed-income and get strong total returns in it without a lot of these heavy macro risks that are going to hit equities,” Malik said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “Equities considering their valuation are less attractive.” Elsewhere, oil prices rose for a second day, lifted by expectations of demand recovery in China. Crude future advance with WTI gaining 0.9% to trade near $80.90. Spot gold falls roughly 0.5% to trade near $1,937/oz. Bitcoin fell more than 2%, reversing much of Wednesday’s gain. Looking to the busy day ahead now, data releases from the US include the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, preliminary durable goods orders for December, new home sales for December and the weekly initial jobless claims. Otherwise, earnings releases include Visa, Mastercard, Intel, American Airlines and Comcast. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,038.75 MXAP up 0.6% to 170.22 MXAPJ up 1.1% to 558.68 Nikkei down 0.1% to 27,362.75 Topix down 0.1% to 1,978.40 Hang Seng Index up 2.4% to 22,566.78 Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,264.81 Sensex down 1.3% to 60,205.06 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,468.30 Kospi up 1.7% to 2,468.65 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 454.33 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.19% Euro down 0.1% to $1.0900 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $86.50/bbl Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,937.17 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.17% to 101.81 Top Overnight Stories BOJ members were divided over whether the 2% inflation goal could be sustainably achieved and felt the extreme level of accommodation should be sustained. Also, The IMF suggested that the BOJ could allow more flexibility in 10-year bond yields, a move that would involve policy changes for the central bank. RTRS / Nikkei China’s most scenic destinations have been inundated during the Spring Festival holiday, as Beijing’s shift away from Covid Zero spurred a travel frenzy despite the country’s ongoing omicron outbreak. BBG Bank of Indonesia has delivered enough interest-rate increases, according to Governor Perry Warjiyo, who signaled that this round of tightening is coming to an end as the Federal Reserve also winds down. This is the second central bank in as many days (after the Bank of Canada yesterday) to signal an end to rate hikes. BBG Pakistan’s economy is at risk of collapse, with rolling blackouts and a severe foreign currency shortage leaving businesses struggling to operate as authorities attempt to revive an IMF bailout to relieve the deepening crisis. FT Adani Group may take legal action against Hindenburg Research after the US short seller alleged "brazen" market manipulation and accounting fraud. Shares of Adani-related entities slumped yesterday, shaving $12 billion off the empire of Asia's richest man, and a raft of its companies' dollar bonds fell further today. BBG Eurozone officials start talks on creating a huge multibillion-euro fund to compete w/the US green energy subsidies. London Times The NYSE mayhem earlier this week was due to simple human error, people familiar said — an exchange employee didn't correctly shut down a backup system running overnight so heading into Tuesday, the NYSE's computers treated the 9:30 a.m. bell as a continuation of trading, skipping the opening auctions. No word yet on the cost of the chaos. BBG Donald Trump's back. Meta will reinstate the former president's social media accounts "in the coming weeks" following a two-year suspension. He had 34 million followers on Facebook and 23 million on Instagram back in 2021 but, more important, his re-election campaign will now be able to buy ads to raise money via direct appeals or by capturing users' contact info to solicit them directly. BBG Tesla jumped as much as 8% premarket after profit beat, though there were mixed signals on the outlook. Elon Musk said production may top 1.8 million vehicles this year. BBG A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed amid key holiday closures and after the flat handover from Wall St where the major indices recouped most of their initial losses after the BoC’s dovish hike. Nikkei 225 was subdued amid a firmer currency and upside in yields, while the government also lowered its overall economic assessment for the first time in 11 months. KOSPI gained despite the weaker-than-expected GDP data although the finance minister flagged the likelihood of a return to growth for the current quarter. Hang Seng outperformed as participants in Hong Kong returned from the Lunar New Year holiday and were greeted by strength in tech, property and autos, although trade across the rest of the region remained relatively quiet owing to the closures in Australia, China, Taiwan, India and Vietnam. Top Asian News BoJ Summary of Opinions from the January meeting stated it is appropriate to maintain current monetary easing including YCC and that the BoJ must keep yields from rising across the curve while being mindful of the bond market function. Furthermore, they must spend more time to gauge the impact of the December decision and must conduct a review of policy at some point although it is appropriate to maintain easy policy for now, while they still see some distance in achieving the price goal and noted it will take some time to achieve sustained wage growth. IMF (policy proposal on Japan) says the BoJ should allow bond yields to move in a more flexible manner; If significant upside inflation risks materialise, BoJ needs to be ready to withdraw stimulus strong, e.g. by increasing interest rates; possible options for the BoJ include widening the yield bank, increasing the yield target, targeting shorter yields and shifting to a quantity target; BoJ policy is appropriate as inflation is likely to ease but risks are becoming more pronounced; FX intervention should be limited to special circumstances such as disorderly market conditions. Japan is to downgraded its COVID classification on May 8th, via NHK. European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%, with a busy morning for earnings dictating the state of play before Stoxx 600 heavyweight LVMH's (MC FP) earnings, due after-market on Thursday. Stateside, futures are firmer across the board, ES Mar'23 +0.2% and comfortably above the 4k mark and as such the 10- and 200-DMAs which reside on either side of the figure. NDX +0.6% is the incremental outperformer after a well received update from Tesla (TSLA) +7% pre-market while IBM (IBM) slips -1.6% after its Q4 report. Top European News US and EU are reportedly discussing a potential deal regarding critical raw materials and minerals, to enable the EU to benefit from the US' Inflation Reduction Act/green investment plan, via Bloomberg citing sources. UK 2022 car production fell 9.8% Y/Y to 775k units, while car and light van production for 2023 is expected to increase 15% Y/Y to 984k units, according to SMMT. UK ONS says consumer behaviour indicators were broadly similar to the prior week. Irish Finance Minister McGrath says Brexit talks have reached a new level. Italian Economy Minister says before April they intend to extend relief measures to assist families and firms with energy costs, could alter regulations on capital gains tax. Denmark Calls for Mandatory Military Service for Women Europe Gas Prices Rebound After Slump With Asia Demand in Focus Diageo Drops as Sales Growth Slows in Crucial US Market Saipem Top Oil Services Pick at JPMorgan, Subsea 7 Cut FX DXY slips to a minor new 101.500 y-t-d low, but holds in and pares some losses pre-US data raft. Aussie and Kiwi remain underpinned on inflation grounds, but AUD/USD heavy on 0.7100 handle and NZD/USD clipped around 0.6500. Yen recoils between 129.00-130.00 range vs Buck as Japan's top currency diplomat warns that sharp moves will not be tolerated, CNH bid as HK markets return from holiday with COVID reopening optimism. Euro and Pound wobble above 1.0900 and 1.2400 vs Dollar and ahead of technical resistance. Morgan Stanley's month-end USD rebalancing model: expects the USD to underperform in January, with weakness expected vs all G10 currencies ex-NOK. CBRT announced support for the conversion of firms' foreign exchange obtained from abroad into Turkish liras to support 'liraization' in commercial activities, with firms to be provided with FX conversion support corresponding to 2% of the amount converted. Fixed Income Core benchmarks have continued to ease from best levels with the IMF's BoJ/Japan policy proposal adding to the pressure. Bunds holding just above 138.00 within 138.62-137.91 parameters while Gilts are just below 105.00 towards the mid-point of a 105.66-104.72 range. USTs are similarly contained around the 115.00 handle as participants await US data and a subsequent 7yr auction. Commodities WTI and Brent March futures remain underpinned by the China-demand narrative, though are relatively rangebound overall and spent much of the morning trading with no firm direction with focus on geopols and French strike action. US and European gas futures are experiencing a modest divergence, with ING suggesting the US Nat Gas pressure is due to milder weather. TotalEnergies (TTE FP) says pension reforms strike action is interrupting shipments at French production sites, except for the Feyzin refinery (119k BPD). Continue to ensure petrol stations are supplied, no shortage. 24-hours strike declared at the 140k BPD Fos-Sur-Mer oil refinery in France, according to BFM TV citing an Esso Union official. German energy regulator says there is not enough gas saving in the third calendar week; household, business and industry consumption down 9%in total in that week (vs 20% target). Spot gold has been dipping from best levels amid seemingly yield-driven USD upside while LME copper is relatively resilient but has slipped from best levels. Geopolitics Russian Kremlin says it sees the sending of Western tanks to Ukraine as direct and growing involvement in the conflict. Russian Security Council's Secretary Patrushev says the US and NATO are participating in the Ukrainian conflict and want to prolong it. US Event Calendar 08:30: 4Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.6%, prior 3.2% 4Q GDP Price Index, est. 3.2%, prior 4.4% 4Q PCE Core QoQ, est. 3.9%, prior 4.7% 4Q Personal Consumption, est. 2.8%, prior 2.3% 08:30: Dec. Durable Goods Orders, est. 2.5%, prior -2.1% Dec. -Less Transportation, est. -0.2%, prior 0.1% Dec. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.2%, prior 0.1% Dec. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.4%, prior -0.1% 08:30: Jan. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 205,000, prior 190,000 Continuing Claims, est. 1.66m, prior 1.65m 08:30: Dec. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$88.1b, prior -$83.3b, revised -$82.9b 08:30: Dec. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1% Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1.0% 08:30: Dec. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 10:00: Dec. New Home Sales MoM, est. -4.4%, prior 5.8% New Home Sales, est. 612,000, prior 640,000 11:00: Jan. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -8, prior -9 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Morning from Milan. Yet another first time since the pandemic started trip. Always nice to be back. I’d almost forgotten how good the food is here! It was a fairly positive macro dinner with clients generally constructive. It was unique to be in Italy and see no-one really too concerned about Italy credit quality which is testimony to the various EU/ECB packages both pre and post the pandemic and also impressive given how far the ECB has come on rates and how far it still has to go. With markets overall on the calm side too at the moment we're getting our mini vol from entering earnings crossfire season where a big name’s quarterly report can pick you off. Indeed, sentiment yesterday was heavily influenced at first by Microsoft’s disappointing cloud sales outlook from after the bell on Tuesday night. The company’s shares were down around -4.5% soon after the open, before sentiment steadily improved as the day progressed. By the end of the day, it had clawed its way back up to have only lost -0.59%. More broadly, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit intraday lows of -2.34% and -1.69%, respectively, before closing at -0.18% and -0.02%. So a decent recovery. After the close, we then heard from Tesla and IBM. Tesla reported adjusted earnings of $1.19 EPS ($1.12 EPS expected) as it sought to boost output quickly to achieve its previous guidance of 1.8mn vehicles delivered this year. In after-market trading it then advanced +5.5%, especially after Elon Musk said that he expected demand would remain strong despite an expected contraction and that there was a new “next-generation” vehicle that would be announced in March. IBM (-2.0% after-market) also beat earning expectations at $3.60 EPS (consensus was $3.58), and increased its sales forecast whilst announcing they would be cutting headcount by 1.5%. Against this backdrop, US equity futures are looking more positive this morning, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.12%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.35%) both higher. With the S&P 500 finishing the day largely unchanged, 12 of 24 industry groups were in positive territory for the day. Telecoms (+2.50%), banks (+1.17%), insurance (+0.78%), and food & beverage (+0.73%) outperformed, whereas transports (-1.43%) and utilities (-1.36%) were the biggest laggards. Europe closed before the last of the rally in the US, with the STOXX 600 finishing down -0.29%. The STOXX Technology index was similarly down -1.66% at the lows before staging a late recovery itself that only left it down -0.13%. Much like US equities, US bonds saw a decent range and by the close yields on 10yr Treasuries were down -1.1bps on the day to 3.44% (range 3.42-3.49%). By contrast in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (+0.3bps), OATs (+1.1bps) and BTPs (+3.3bps) all moved higher to varying degrees. That followed fresh comments from ECB speakers, with Slovenia’s Vasle saying that rates should go up by 50bps at the next two meetings. Ireland’s Makhlouf also endorsed continuing with 50bps into March, saying that “We need to continue to increase rates at our meeting next week – by taking a similar step to our December decisions – and also at our March meeting.” Ahead of the Fed and ECB decisions next week, we did get a decision yesterday from the Bank of Canada. They hiked by 25bps as expected, but said in their statement that they expect “to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases.” Governor Macklem did make clear in his press conference statement that this was “a conditional pause”, and said they were willing to do more if needed to get inflation back to target. However, it’s still an important milestone after a series of 8 hikes at consecutive meetings, particularly given speculation about when the Fed might reach a similar point in their own hiking cycle. Speaking of the Fed, they’re currently in their blackout period, but the Washington Post reported yesterday that Vice Chair Brainard was a top contender to become the next head of the National Economic Council at the White House. If that happened, that would open up a space on the board as well as the Vice Chair position, although as it stands Brainard’s position as both a Governor and Vice Chair currently last until H1 2026. Nevertheless, there is a precedent for such a move from the Fed to the White House, such as when former Chair Bernanke went from being a Fed Governor to Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in 2005, before going back to the Fed as Chair the following year. Similarly, Janet Yellen made the same move from Fed Governor to CEA Chair in 1997. Staying with the White House, the Biden administration announced that the US would be sending 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, adding on to those confirmed by Germany. Delivery of the US tanks could take months but training would begin soon. The German tanks are expected to be sent to Ukraine within three months. Overnight in Asia, equities have posted advances for the most part, with the Hang Seng up +1.89% as it resumed trading following a holiday. That leaves the index on track for its highest closing level since April last year, and brings its gains since the end of October to +53% now. In the meantime, the KOSPI was also up +1.44%, but the Nikkei is down -0.20% this morning amidst a further strengthening in the Japanese Yen, which stands at 129.36 per US Dollar this morning. Looking at yesterday’s other data, the Ifo business climate indicator from Germany rose to a 7-month high of 90.2 in January (vs. 90.3 expected). And the expectations component rose to an 8-month high of 83.2 (vs. 82.0 expected). To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, preliminary durable goods orders for December, new home sales for December and the weekly initial jobless claims. Otherwise, earnings releases include Visa, Mastercard, Intel, American Airlines and Comcast. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/26/2023 - 08:06.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytJan 26th, 2023

CEO Satya Nadella prepares Microsoft for an epic bounce-back

Microsoft reported earnings, and its cloud growth is slowing down. But CEO Satya Nadella shared plans for how Microsoft can rebound with the economy. Happy Friday eve, reader. I'm Diamond Naga Siu, and I love talking about careers. One of my favorite pieces of advice is that you don't really switch jobs — you switch managers. That's a big deal, because a lot of people apparently dislike their managers.Thankfully, I like my editor. But Microsoft's former head of HR shares how to navigate this tricky dynamic if you aren't so lucky.Vibing with my manager is a large part of my psychological safety at work — a concept that Googlers claim the company violated during its massive layoffs. But psychological safety researchers say that feeling isn't tied to job security. Instead, it comes from the ability to take risks and make mistakes. The way companies treat employees — such as during layoffs — impacts that. And unhappy employees take fewer risks, and thus are less innovative.Before Insider stops me from making more jokes, let's dive into today's tech.If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. Download Insider's app here.Satya NadellaStephen Brashear/Getty Images1. Jumpman, jumpman, jumpman, Nadella's up to something (cloud). Microsoft reported earnings on Tuesday, and its cloud growth is slowing down. But CEO Satya Nadella shared his plan for how Microsoft can rebound with the economy.Customers are currently more cautious about how they spend their money. But Microsoft sees this as an opportunity to assist customers with stretching their IT dollars. This could help the company to slowly gain share and build customer loyalty.Nadella also remains pretty optimistic about the sector. He believes that cloud spending could return by the end of this year. And analysts seem to agree with him.Insider cloud connoisseur Paayal Zaveri breaks down why the slowdown won't last forever. And she lays out Microsoft's bounce-back prospects in full.Get the sky-high, cloud view here.In other news:Netflix will introduce its paid-sharing account before the end of March.Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images2. Netflix says password sharing could disappear within 10 weeks. Netflix is cracking down on people sharing accounts. It already implemented this model in Latin America, charging $3 per month to add people outside of their home. Learn about the changes here (no password required).3. Do Matthew McConaughey and lowkey run Salesforce? The two celebs are involved in high-level strategy and business discussions, according to a new FT report. CEO Marc Benioff Just Can't Get Enough celeb friends, which allegedly concerns investors. Peek inside their involvement here.4. ChatGPT aced Amazon's interview questions. An Amazon engineer tested ChatGPT by giving it the company's technical interview questions. Leaked Slack messages showed that the engineer was "honestly impressed" by the results. Check out its performance.5. Bloomberg is on a hiring spree. Many major companies across industries are laying people off or pausing hiring. But Bloomberg plans to bring on 1,000 people this year across media, tech, and other divisions. More on its expansion plan.6. The 100 fastest-growing digital brands. Similarweb's roundup covers tech, beauty, autos, financial services, careers, travel, and other increasingly-online industries. Skims, Capital One Travel, and GasBuddy were featured on the list. Check them all out here.7. Google laid off 31 massage therapists. Good luck to Googlers searching for relaxation. During its recent mass layoff, the tech giant let go of 31 massage therapists across its California offices. More on the strain here.8. Tesla's autopilot feature is falling behind. Consumer Reports found that Tesla's driver assistance technology lags the competition. Ford took the top spot, while General Motors was second. See how the others stack up.Odds and ends:The US Army Corps of Engineers flushes the water jets of a dredge's suction head.USACE9. The Mississippi River drought is almost over. The US government has been working 24/7 to clean out the river since July. Water levels got so low that barges got stranded and historic artifacts were revealed. Dive into how the extraordinary circumstances could end soon.10. "Monk mode" helped this CEO during crunchtime. TikTok popularized a productivity hack called "monk mode." It's a method of accomplishing goals by isolating yourself, while adopting the self-discipline of monks. He shared how the experiment went.What we're watching today:Quarterly earnings for Intel, Comcast, and other companies. Keep up with earnings here.Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula compete for a spot in the Aussie Open finals.It's the third anniversary of Kobe Bryant's death. RIP, legend.The White House is hosting a Lunar New Year celebration.Curated by Diamond Naga Siu in San Diego. (Feedback or tips? Email or tweet @diamondnagasiu) Edited by Matt Weinberger (tweet @gamoid) in San Francisco and Hallam Bullock (tweet @hallam_bullock) in London.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 26th, 2023

Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos says the company has "never canceled a successful show" after ditching "1899"

Netflix has been criticized for ending shows like "1899." But Ted Sarandos says that some shows have too big a budget and too small an audience. "1899" was cancelled after once season at Netflix.Netflix Netflix's co-CEO Ted Sarandos told Bloomberg that the company has "never canceled a successful show." The streamer has been criticized for ending shows like "1899" too soon. Sarandos added that some big-budget shows have too small an audience. Netflix is defending its history of TV cancellations."We have never canceled a successful show," Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos recently told Bloomberg after Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw said there are "constantly people outraged about shows getting canceled.""A lot of these shows were well-intended but talk to a very small audience on a very big budget," Sarandos said. "The key to it is you have to be able to talk to a small audience on a small budget and a large audience at a large budget. If you do that well, you can do that forever."Netflix has been criticized for canceling shows too quickly.Raphael Bob-Waksberg, the creator of Netflix's animated series "Bojack Horseman," slammed Netflix in 2019 after it canceled "Tuca and Bertie," which he produced, after one season, despite glowing reviews from critics."When we started on 'BoJack,' it was understood that the Netflix model was to give shows time to find an audience and to build that audience," Bob-Waksberg told the Los Angeles Times."I think it's a shame that they seem to have moved away from that model," he added.Earlier that year, Deadline reported that Netflix sees little value in shows that exceed 30 episodes in total, which typically equates to three seasons, because they become too expensive and are harder for newer viewers to jump into.To be fair, Netflix has found success with a number of long-running shows, such as "The Crown," which recently aired its fifth season, and Bob-Waksberg's "Bojack Horseman," which lasted six seasons.But the company has also canceled plenty of other shows after a few, or even just one, season.Most recently, it canceled "1899" after one season, despite having a production deal with the show's creators, Jantje Friese and Baran bo Odar, who also created Netflix's "Dark."The news left fans livid and complaining to the streamer on social media.In November, "1899" debuted as the No. 2 series on Netflix worldwide, according to Netflix's own weekly charts of its most-watched content. It remained in the top five for several weeks after.But, if what Sarandos said is true, that's just not good enough.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 26th, 2023

Microsoft"s $10 billion bet on ChatGPT"s maker gives it a powerful new weapon in the cloud wars with Amazon and Google

The tech firm reported a gloomy outlook for its cloud unit on Tuesday, but a timely bet on OpenAI could boost its fight against AWS and Google. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.Christophe Morin/IP3/Getty Images Microsoft's multibillion-dollar bet on OpenAI could be rocket fuel for its cloud business. Cloud, increasingly important to Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, is slowing down in the short term. But whoever successfully integrates AI could dominate the market. Microsoft opened Wednesday with a 4% share price drop after the firm gave a tough outlook for its cloud business during third-quarter earnings Tuesday. But the company has a longer-term strategic weapon that could help it win the cloud wars: its once-in-a-generation bet on OpenAI.Reporting fiscal Q1 earnings on Tuesday, Microsoft forecast that its cloud business Azure would slow by 4-5 percentage points in the coming quarter. The deceleration is down to customers shying away from expensive cloud deals in a tough macroeconomic environment. The unit generated $25.7 billion in revenue in its most recent quarter, up 24% year on year. Cloud computing has taken off over the last decade as a way for blue-chip businesses to store massive amounts of information on servers run by the major tech firms, rather than on-premise. For the most part, it's faster, more secure, and flexible.  It's also a huge revenue driver for Big Tech, whatever their public spiel about self-driving cars and acrobatic robots. An outage at market leader Amazon's AWS can take down large swathes of the internet. Any hint of a slowdown in growth for Microsoft's Azure, Amazon's AWS, and Google Cloud tends to provoke analyst angst. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella — who once ran its cloud division — accordingly provoked some of this angst as he warned that the firm's Azure customers were beginning to "optimize" their cloud spend after a pandemic binge.But, he added: "We fundamentally believe that the next big platform wave is going to be AI and we strongly also believe a lot of the enterprise value gets created by just being able to catch these waves and then have those waves impact every part of our tech stack and also create new solutions and new opportunities."Even if there are immediate challenges for cloud growth, Microsoft sees its OpenAI bet, reported to be worth $10 billion, as a bigger strategic move. As a gamble, it looks smarter than, say, the metaverse.Armed the deadliest weapon yetIn a blogpost announcing the deal, Microsoft noted that its investment in the developer behind the generative AI chatbot would help it build "leading AI infrastructure" for Azure. In practice, this means developing cloud technologies that are purpose-built for AI, giving it an edge at a time when excitement among developers for AI is peaking. Microsoft's gamble, essentially, is that everyone will need and use artificial intelligence in the near future — and that means increased demand and cash for the computing power to train AI models.A research note on Wednesday from Jefferies analysts noted Microsoft "sees AI innovation as driving growth for Azure AI services," with revenue from Azure ML, a cloud segment dedicated to training AI models, increasing more than 100% over the past five quarters. Microsoft also suggested in its post that it will make Azure the "exclusive cloud provider" of OpenAI's research and products.All of this is "mostly about cementing Azure's edge over AWS" as Microsoft "has exclusive access to the hottest AI property on the market right now," according to Richard Windsor, founder of research firm Radio Free Mobile.Windsor thinks that much of the money Microsoft is committing to OpenAI will revolve around "building custom infrastructure"  to run OpenAI's technology in an efficient way, given that "during busy times, response times increase materially" for its scary-smart chatbot, ChatGPT. The bet is that Azure could offer OpenAI to customers in a way that none of its rivals can immediately replicate."Should OpenAI's products become popular with clients, this will give Azure firepower in its quest to close the gap on AWS," he said. The AI arms raceWith cloud spend tightening, it's likely that Amazon and Google will look to give their cloud divisions a shot in the arm too with AI to stay competitive. Amazon will want to retain its lead position, Google is pursuing an aggressive growth plan."This isn't a vacuum," said Bola Rotibi, chief of enterprise research at CCS Insight. "You can imagine Amazon is not going to be sitting on its laurels or waiting there for Microsoft to surpass it." Cloud represents a growing slice of Big Tech's respective revenue pies. Microsoft Cloud, which also includes revenue from Office 365 and other products as well as Azure, represented around 50% of the company's overall revenue. In Amazon's last earnings, AWS represented around 16% of its overall earnings, while Google Cloud's $6.9 billion in revenue at the end of the September quarter represented 10% of overall revenue.These percentage figures are likely to get bigger.In a research note on Tuesday, Wedbush analysts Dan Ives and John Katsingris wrote that cloud and the underlying Office ecosystem "is going to comprise a bigger and bigger piece of Redmond going forward and will ultimately spur growth and margins" despite the downturn."We believe the shift to cloud is still less than 50% penetrated and represents a massive opportunity for Nadella & Co. going forward despite the dark storm clouds forming for FY23 in the uncertain macro backdrop," the Wedbush analysts said. There is pressure right now on cloud spend, with Wedbush predicting some "larger cloud deals" in the financial sector will likely get downsized for Microsoft as companies rein in costs.But the AI genie is out of the bottle, as evidenced by the proliferation of activity around ChatGPT. Microsoft's OpenAI bet looks smarter by the day.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 25th, 2023

Investors are the least bullish on the stock market since 2005, even as recession fears are easing, Bank of America says

While investors stay bearish towards stocks, expectations of a recession have declined from 77% saying a recession is likely in November to 68% today. A trader works at the New York Stock Exchange NYSE in New York, the United States, on March 9, 2022.Michael Nagle/Xinhua via GettyInvestors are the least bullish on stocks since 2005, according to a note from Bank of America.The bank said that the "pain trade" for stocks is higher as asset allocators have a big underweight to US stocks.The bearishness among investors comes even as fears of an imminent recession start to decline.Investors remain overly bearish toward the stock market even as fears of a recession start to decline, according to the January fund manager survey from Bank of America.The bank said asset allocators remain overweight cash and bonds, but more importantly, they have their largest underweight allocation to US stocks since October 2005. "January sees collapse in US equity allocation...The magnitude of the month-over-month increase in new Underweight is very impressive," Bofa analysts said. "January 2023 saw the biggest month-over-month increase in net underweight on US equities on record (+27 percentage points)."That means the "pain trade" in the stock market is higher, according to BofA, as most investors would be caught off-guard if stocks suddenly surged given their current positioning.The biggest concerns among investors driving bearishness towards stocks includes inflation staying high, a deep global recession, central banks staying hawkish, and geopolitics worsening in regards to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions between China and Taiwan.While investors remain bearish towards stocks, expectations of a recession have declined from 77% saying a recession is likely in November to 68% today. The combination of declining fears of a recession and bearish stock positioning among investors makes "long stocks" the contrarian trade of 2023, according to BofA. "Note prior peaks in recession fear were big turning points in asset prices," BofA said. It's not only the respondents of BofA's fund manager survey that show high levels of pessimism towards US stocks. The weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey has been overwhelmingly bearish over the past year, with bearish respondents outweighing bullish respondents for 55 of the past 56 weeks. That's a record since the survey started in 1987. While investors are bearish on US stocks, they are constructive towards Chinese stocks. Investors are the most bullish they've been on China in the past 16 years as the country gears up for a full economic reopening from the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the survey.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytJan 17th, 2023

Futures At Session High, Just Shy Of 4,000, Ahead Of CPI

Futures At Session High, Just Shy Of 4,000, Ahead Of CPI US futures are trading near session highs after earlier fluctuating between gains and losses ahead of make-or-break inflation data which many expect will show price pressures continuing to ease. S&P 500 futures traded 0.1% higher as of 7:30am ET, just shy of 4,000, one day after the S&P 500 clocked this year’s first back-to-back gains on Tuesday and Wednesday. The gains stem from bets that cooling inflation ill give the Federal Reserve room to slow its pace of rate hikes, a take substantiated by Boston Fed chief Susan Collins, who said she was leaning toward a quarter-point move at the bank’s Feb. 1 meeting. Treasuries steadied after gains in Wednesday’s session, with the 10Y trading at 3.52%, while a gauge of dollar strength edged lower as investors looked beyond the drumbeat of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. The yen rallied on a report that the Bank of Japan will look into the side effects of its ultra-loose monetary policy. Commodities are mostly higher with the dollar weaker. Yesterday, the Fed’s Collins supported a 25bps hike, inline with market expectations coming into CPI. US air traffic was disrupted by a FAA system outage but is back online; US reopening names continue to rally, once again in sympathy with China. Media is flagging the rallies in meme stocks, which may mean that the retail investor is coming back to the market after having sold a near record >$3bn last week. Today’s focus is on the CPI print and the balance of this note includes analysis of the print with views from around the firm, including monetization methods. “Markets are positioned for a CPI reading which will not disturb their march forward”, said Andrea Tueni, head of sales trading at Saxo Banque France. But “the last three publications generated a lot of volatility across markets so there’s a lot at stake,” he added. Among premarket movers, Tesla fell 2% after Bloomberg reported that an expansion of the company’s plant in Shanghai has been delayed, putting a roadblock in the way of its ambitions to increase its market share in China. Bed Bath & Beyond shares surged another 26%, extending Wednesday gains, after a rally in other so-called meme stocks. Here are other notable premarket movers: Spotify shares fall 2.2%, Roku (ROKU US) declines 3.1%, Unity Software (U US) down 2.8% after Jefferies downgraded them in a note on US media outlook, while upgrading Netflix and JAKKS. Netflix shares gain 1.6% after Jefferies raised the recommendation to buy from hold, citing upside surprises to 2024 operating margin. Tesla fell 1.2%, erasing earlier gains, after Bloomberg reported that an expansion of the US electric carmaker’s plant in Shanghai has been delayed. Bed Bath & Beyond shares surge 21% in US premarket trading, extending Wednesday gains after a rally in other so-called meme stocks. Marathon Digital shares advance 8.6%, leading cryptocurrency-exposed stocks higher as Bitcoin rallies to break back above the $18,000 level, extending gains for a ninth consecutive session — its longest streak since July 2020. Oramed’s US shares plunge 71% after the company’s experimental oral insulin failed in a late-stage clinical trial of Type 2 diabetes patients. Keep an eye on chemicals after KeyBanc Capital Markets said that it sees a favorable risk skew in the sector’s stocks for 2023, although with only modest upside. The broker downgrades DuPont de Nemours to sector weight. Citi says it continues to favor US exchange operators over brokers into 2023, in a note cutting Virtu Financial (VIRT US) to neutral. Every aspect of Thursday’s CPI report will be scrutinized, with extra attention on core inflation, which excludes food and energy and is seen as a better indicator than the headline measure. The projected 5.7% increase would be well above the Fed’s goal, helping explain its intention of keeping rates higher for longer. But the year-over-year price growth would also show moderation. “Core inflation remains well above target,” said Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard Ltd. “Having been late to act, the Fed is unlikely to pause the tightening cycle until inflation is definitively under control.” There was a note of caution in the morning note from JPM's Market Intelligence team, which warned that most of a CPI miss may already be priced in: The SPX is +4.2% since last Friday, leading to multiple conversations as to whether a cooler CPI print is priced in. That seems to be the view from my client conversations, with most thinking we see a spike on the print and then fade from there. Their rationale? The print will confirm the deflationary narrative, but it will not be low enough to materially reprice bonds lower. To clarify, this CPI print should not change Fed expectations for 25bps hikes in both February and March. Further, any subsequent Fedspeak is likely to be hawkish given that financial conditions are now looser than at Jackson Hole (is it possible that the Fed could keep 2023 meetings as “live meetings” after they pause?). While recognizing that inflation expectations are lower now, the Fed’s concern is likely to be that, given the relative strength of the US Consumer, that you could see inflation accelerate higher if lending conditions ease. Thinking about today’s session, I do think there is still the ability for the market to experience another rally despite the moves coming into the print. Longer-term, earnings are the next key catalyst and if Q4 GDP is stronger than expected, this should be reflected in earnings since EPS growth tends to be more correlated to nominal growth rather than real growth. European equity indexes rose with the Stoxx 600 up 0.7% and reaching highest since last April as traders bet US inflation will show further signs of cooling. The CAC and FTSE have gain 0.6% while the DAX adds 0.5%. Real estate, autos and travel are the strongest performing sectors. Here are the biggest European movers: Whitbread jumps as much as 4.9%, hitting the highest since February 2022, with analysts saying its “positive” trading update implied improvements in 2023 and 2024 performance Vodafone shares rise 3% after BofA upgraded to buy, saying easing energy costs and the telecom’s improving price traction should result in positive revision to earnings estimates Asos shares soar the most since October, after the struggling fast-fashion retailer said it was making headway in plans to turn around its performance Boozt gains as much as 11%, rebounding from the previous day’s 9.9% plunge, after the Swedish online retailer beat expectations in its 4Q report; a “positive relief,” DNB says Logitech shares drop as much as 19% in early trading, the most since April 2011, after its second guidance cut in three quarters. The moves pull peers, including GN Store Nord and Demant, lower Ubisoft shares tumble as much as 22% after forecasting an operating loss, delaying the Skull & Bones title for a sixth time, and saying recent game launches “have not performed as well as expected” Halfords drops as much as 24%, the most since June 2022, as Peel Hunt trimmed its rating to add from buy, noting labor shortages and cost pressures couuld squeeze profit Signify shares slumped as much as 6% after the company lowered its full-year guidance once again on Covid-19 disruptions in China Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, as miners in Australia climbed on demand optimism ahead of highly-awaited US inflation data.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% to the highest since August before paring. Japan’s MUFJ, AIA in Hong Kong and Australia’s BHP boosted the index the most while the Chinese tech rally took a pause.  The stock benchmark in Australia was a notable winner in the region, advancing 1.2% to the highest in five weeks, as miners rallied amid hopes China’s reopening will spur demand for metals. Equities in Japan posted moderate gains helped by financials after a report said the Bank of Japan is reviewing the side effects of its ultra-easy monetary policy. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China fluctuated between gains and losses as traders digested Chinese inflation data. Trading volume was 14% lighter than average ahead of key consumer price data from the US due later Thursday.  “Continued rerating triggered by improved sentiment is carrying markets higher,” said Lorraine Tan, director of equity research at Morningstar Asia. “Inflation pressure is easing and interest rates should be peaking within the next six months.”  While consensus view is that US prices have peaked, investors will scrutinize the upcoming inflation report for any indication of the Federal Reserve’s future rate hike path.  Asian equities have outperformed US peers so far 2023 amid reversals in the dollar strength and China’s Covid Zero policy. Easing concerns over China’s regulatory risks and property sector have also lured investors back to the region.  “A lot of things that have been bothering me were reversed,” Ajay Kapur, head of APAC and Global EM strategy at Bank of America Securities, told Bloomberg TV, referring to China’s policy turnaround in November. “I’m still quite constructive.” Elsewhere in Asia, the Indonesian benchmark rose, one day after entering a technical correction. Japanese stocks edged higher as investors assessed reports on the Bank of Japan’s plans and awaited US inflation data that may influence Federal Reserve policy. The Topix rose 0.4% to close at 1,908.18, while the Nikkei was little changed at 26,449.82. The yen gained 0.7% against the dollar after a Yomiuri report that the BOJ is considering further policy tweaks at its meeting next week. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 5% after the Yomiuri report. Out of 2,162 stocks in the index, 786 rose and 1,257 fell, while 119 were unchanged. “US CPI is definitely one factor to watch, but the BOJ’s YCC change last December still has a lingering effect,” said Hiroshi Matsumoto, senior client portfolio manager at Pictet Asset Management. “It seems that stocks had been oversold on the policy change, and the market is still recovering from it.”  Australia stocks jumpe to a five week high, buoyed by miners. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.2% to close at 7,280.40, its highest level since Dec. 6. The benchmark outperformed regional stock gauges, boosted by banks and miners. Materials shares have been climbing on bets that China’s reopening will fuel demand for metals. Read: China Reopening Sends Australian Mining Stocks Near Record High In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.2% to 11,664.88. India’s benchmark stock index dropped for a third day ahead of key economic data including retail inflation. Bharti Airtel and Reliance Industries declined amid rising worries over the impact of 5G services on telecom companies’ pricing recovery. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.3% to 59,958.03 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.2%. For the week, the benchmark gauge is flat, helped by a sharp rally on Monday.  Small and mid-cap stock gauges also declined. BSE Ltd.’s 20 sector sub-gauges were mixed, with capital goods firms leading the advance while oil & gas companies were worst performers. Software exporter Infosys, which reported December quarter earnings after close of trading, posted higher-than-expected profit, while raising sales forecast.   Consumer price inflation probably rose 5.9% in December from a year ago, according to a Bloomberg survey, and little changed from the previous month. Data for industrial output in November will also be released after close of markets. In Fx, the Bloomberg Dollar Index is down 0.2% with the JPY a clear outperformer among the G-10’s. SEK is the weakest. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended losses in the European session as the yen rallied by as much as 1.2%, to 130.89 per dollar. The greenback traded mixed against the other Group-of-10 peers, with moves confined to narrow ranges. The yen’s rally followed after the Yomiuri newspaper said policy makers will consider adjusting their bond purchases and make further policy tweaks if they believe they are necessary, without giving any attribution. The cash 10-year yield remained pinned against the 0.50% ceiling while the 15- year yield added 8bps The euro inched up to a day high of 1.0775. Bunds climbed, led by the belly, and Italian bonds outperformed. Money markets added to ECB tightening wagers, paring some of Wednesday’s late declines after policymakers Rehn and De Cos warned of significant rate hikes The pound traded higher against the dollar. The Bank of England’s Catherine Mann is due to speak Thursday, with money markets easing wagers on the scope for further rate hikes In rates, the treasuries curve extends Wednesday’s flattening move with long-end outperforming ahead of 30-year auction, following a wider rally across core European rates led by gilts. US session events include December CPI report and several Fed speakers.  US long-end yields richer by about 3bp, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 1.5bp and 2bp vs Wednesday’s close; the 10-year trades around 3.52%, trailing bunds by 2.5bp, gilts by 5.5bp in the sector. UK gilts outperform as deteriorating macro backdrop continues to take BOE rate-hike premium out of the UK swaps market. In US, December inflation data is expected to build a case for a downsized 25bp rate hike at the February policy meeting. The US auction cycle concludes with $18bn in 30-year reopening at 1pm; Wednesday’s 10- year auction stopped through by 0.5bp with strong participation metrics. WI 30-year yield at ~3.640% is ~13bp cheaper than December’s result reflecting curve-steepening in the interim. UK and German bonds are marginally higher having pared most of their earlier advance. In commodities, oil rose for a sixth day on hopes US inflation is cooling and as China’s crude buying ramps up before the Lunar New Year holidays. WTI was up 0.9% to trade above $78. Spot gold rises roughly $8 to trade near $1,884/oz. Base metals are mixed. In crypto, bitcoin rose above the $18k mark, with today's action bringing it back towards its 14th December best, which itself is just shy of USD 18.5k. Coinbase is reportedly considering exiting the Japanese market, via Nikkei. Looking the day ahead now, the main data highlight will be the US CPI release for December, whilst other data includes the weekly initial jobless claims. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Harker, Bullard and Barkin, as well as the BoE’s Mann, and the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,990.25 MXAP up 0.7% to 163.37 MXAPJ up 0.3% to 537.24 Nikkei little changed at 26,449.82 Topix up 0.4% to 1,908.18 Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 21,514.10 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,163.45 Sensex down 0.2% to 59,967.65 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.2% to 7,280.40 Kospi up 0.2% to 2,365.10 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 450.19 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.17% Euro little changed at $1.0766 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $82.99/bbl Brent Futures up 0.4% to $82.99/bbl Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,883.84 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.14% to 103.04 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Overnight volatility remains high in the majors as traders await the release of the US CPI data. While dollar-topside bets lose traction across, it’s the shift in the pound’s volatility skew that gains attention while yen bullish exposure meets another catalyst The euro’s rally against the dollar has stalled over the past month at resistance around its May high. Bulls are hoping Thursday’s US inflation data will provide enough ammunition for it to breach that barrier and resume its progress toward $1.10 Consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next 12 months declined to 5% in November from 5.4% in October, the ECB said Thursday in a statement summarizing the results of its monthly survey Kazakhstan said local brokerages that snapped up Russian sovereign debt last year did so largely on behalf of clients who were Kazakh and Russian residents Britain’s markets watchdog has warned of potential “systemic defaults” among wholesale brokers in the City of London that may be unfit to weather sudden shocks and longer periods of stress HSBC Holdings Plc lost its bid to topple a reputation-bruising decision that it illegally rigged the Euribor benchmark, in a setback that removes part of the gloss from a procedural victory that overturned millions of euros in European Union fines China hasn’t updated its daily Covid reports for three days, adding to global concerns that the information vacuum is masking the true impact of the world’s biggest outbreak. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded mixed as the major indices failed to fully sustain the early momentum from Wall St. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in the commodity-related industries and the top-weighted financial sector, while the latest trade data showed a wider trade surplus.  Nikkei 225 faded early gains after a report that the BoJ is to review the side effects of its monetary easing. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp swung between gains and losses with the Hong Kong benchmark initially boosted by the reopening play which helped energy, auto and casino names. However, Chinese markets then failed to sustain the early moment amid losses in tech and as participants digested mixed inflation data from the mainland in which CPI matched estimates but factory gate prices fell by more than expected. Top Asian News PBoC injected CNY 65bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and CNY 52bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a CNY 115bln net daily injection. US and Taiwan intend to focus on five areas this weekend during their first round of negotiations towards a trade agreement and indicated a readiness for subset deals as the sides make progress, according to WSJ. BoJ is to review the side effects of its massive monetary easing at its policy meeting next week due to skewed interest rates in markets despite last month's tweak in its bond yield control policy, according to Yomiuri. TSMC Offers Mixed Outlook, Lower Spending for Tough Year Ahead China’s Covid Zero Enforcement Army Faces Unpaid Wages, Job Loss Fosun Is Said to Weigh Sale of Belgian Diamond-Grading Firm IGI HSBC Loses Fight at EU Top Court Over Euribor Rigging Charge European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, though price action has been fairly contained in slim pre-CPI newsflow. US futures are essentially unchanged, ES -0.1%, ahead of December's CPI and Fed speak before and after the key data. TSMC (2330 TT) Q4 (TWD) net 295.9bln (exp. 289.4bln), rev. 625.5bln (prelim. 625.5bln), says smartphone and PC demand dropped more severely than expected. Guides Q1 (TWD) rev. 16.7bln-17.5bln (exp. 16.4bln) and sees H1 revenue down mid-to-high single digit percentage. Tesla's (TSLA) expansion of its Shanghai plant has been delayed, according to Bloomberg sources; cites concerns in Chinese government over CEO Musk's Starlink having such a large presence in China. Top European News ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: Inflation is seen at 5% (vs. prev. view of 5.4%) over the next 12 months; 3 year inflation is seen at 2.9% vs. prev. view of 3.0%. UK and EU are preparing to enter an intense phase of negotiations from next week, via Bloomberg citing sources; aim of this is to move into the negotiating "tunnel", ahead of the April N. Ireland agreement anniversary. A Third of Dublin’s Office Supply Dormant After Cuts Arbonia Falls After Margin Warning; Modest Downgrade Needed: ZKB Apollo-Backed Gaming Firm Lottomatica Weighs $1 Billion IPO RBC Sees Tough Year For Business Services, Cuts Three Stocks   FX Yomiuri Yen revival keeps Greenback grounded awaiting US CPI data. USD/JPY probes 131.00 vs almost 133.00 on Wednesday and DXY tethered to pivotal 103.000 level. Pound perks up on 1.2100 handle as Dollar drifts, Euro consolidates around 1.0750 axis and Aussie pivots 0.6900 with support from a wider than forecast trade surplus. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7680 vs exp. 6.7698 (prev. 6.7756) S. African Finance Minister says they want to resolve the Eskom issue ASAP, part of this is sorting the balance sheet. Appropriate announcement will be made on February 22nd. Fixed Income Bonds wane after an early bull run to and through new big figure levels for Bunds and Gilts at 138.45 and 104.14 respectively. US Treasuries more reserved ahead of inflation report as T-note holds just under w-t-d peak and resistance within a 114-11/22 range. Commodities Upside for the crude space has occurred this morning seemingly without a fresh specific catalyst or driver, with the space perhaps taking advantage of a pre-CPI softening in the USD and the somewhat constructive European risk tone. Lifting WTI Feb’23 to a new WTD peak of USD 78.29/bbl, though this is someway shy of last week’s USD 81.50/bbl best. China's customs officials in the Guangdong province reportedly received notice from the local gov't that they can clear Australian coal shipments, via WSJ citing sources. Morgan Stanley expects Brent prices to remain range-bound for remainder of Q1, around current USD 80-85/bbl range. Spot gold is similarly taking advantage of the USD’s pullback but remains slightly shy of yesterday’s USD 1886/oz best thus far, while base metals are softer across the board. Magnitude 6.4 earthquake strikes Coquimbo, Chile, according to EMSC. Geopolitics US Defence Secretary Austin said China's military is engaging in provocative behaviour around Taiwan to try to establish a new normal, but added that he seriously doubts Chinese provocations are a prelude to an imminent invasion of Taiwan, according to Reuters. Taiwan's Defence Ministry said five Chinese air force planes crossed the Taiwan Strait median line in the past 24 hours, according to Reuters. US Event Calendar 08:30: Dec. CPI MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0.1% CPI YoY, est. 6.5%, prior 7.1% CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2% CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 5.7%, prior 6.0% Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior -1.9%, revised -2.1% Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -3.0%, revised -3.3% 08:30: Jan. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 204,000 Continuing Claims, est. 1.71m, prior 1.69m 14:00: Dec. Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$65b, prior -$21.3b Central Bank Speakers 08:45: Fed’s Harker Discusses the Economic Outlook 11:30: Fed’s Bullard Discusses the US Economy and Monetary Policy 12:40: Fed’s Barkin Speaks in Richmond DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Morning from Copenhagen on a big day for global markets. Both the worst and best days for the S&P 500 in 2022 came on days of a CPI release. As such, it's inevitable that today’s US CPI has the ability to shape the next month. Indeed, after a long run of inflation surprising on the upside, the latest releases have seen two downside surprises on CPI in a row for the first time since the pandemic, which has led to growing hopes that the Fed might achieve a soft landing after all. Furthermore, core inflation has also been increasingly subdued, with the most recent number for November showing monthly core inflation at a 15-month low. Those readings helped to bolster the case for the Fed to downshift their rate hikes last month, and if we did get a third downside surprise today, clearly that would add further fuel on market speculation about a Fed pivot later in the year. In terms of what to expect today, our US economists think that falling gas prices over December will take headline CPI into negative territory at just -0.15% on the month (vs. -0.1% consensus). They also expect core CPI to remain subdued at +0.22% on a monthly basis (vs. +0.3% consensus), which would be only slightly above the 15-month low of +0.20% in November. If those forecasts are right, then that would take year-on-year growth in CPI down to +6.3% (vs. +6.5% consensus), its lowest in over a year, whilst core CPI would be down to +5.6% (vs. +5.7% consensus). As ever, the individual components will be in focus, particularly the stickier ones that change less frequently. Ahead of that release, growing optimism about the inflation outlook led to a major rally in sovereign bonds yesterday, particularly in Europe. For instance, yields on 10yr OATs (-14.1bps), BTPs (-18.7bps) and gilts (-14.8bps) all plummeted, and although there was a contract roll on the 10yr bund, the generic series on Bloomberg was also down -10.4bps. In part that was driven by a fresh decline in natural gas prices, which were down -5.56% yesterday to €65.45/MWh, just above their one-year closing low last week. That rally got further support later in the session by a Bloomberg report which said that German Chancellor Scholz was supportive of a new joint EU financing instrument to help the EU compete against US green subsidies. That helped spreads tighten in particular, with the gap between Italian and German 10yr yields now down to 183bps, which is down by a significant -28.9bps since the start of the year. And the optimism was also clear from other European assets, with the Euro closing at its highest level since May at $1.076, just as the iTraxx Crossover index tightened -10.0bps to levels last seen in April. In the US, Treasuries rallied as investors looked forward to the CPI release, with 10yr yields down -7.9bps to 3.539% and are down another -1.5bps in Asia at 3.524%. However, the moves have been much more subdued at the front end, with the 2yr yield only down -2.9bps (unch overnight), and there was little sign from Fed funds futures that investors were adjusting their policy outlook either. Indeed, the terminal rate priced in for June was little changed ahead of the CPI today, up just +0.4bps to 4.947%. The lack of movement was despite Boston Fed President Collins saying that she was leaning toward downshifting to a 25bps hike in the February meeting. For equities, this benign economic backdrop led to further advances, with the S&P 500 up another +1.28%. 22 of 24 industry groups finished up on the day with 80% of overall constituents gaining yesterday. Tech stocks outperformed in that, with the NASDAQ (+1.76%) advancing for a 4th consecutive session for the first time since September. As an example of the swing back, Tesla (+3.68% yesterday) is now up +13.99% from the recent lows on January 3rd. Back in Europe, there were similar gains, with the STOXX 600 (+0.38%), the DAX (+1.17%) and the CAC 40 (+0.80%) all seeing robust advances, which brought the YTD performance for the DAX up to +7.36%. Asian equity markets have failed to extend the overnight gains on Wall Street though with the Hang Seng (-0.33%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.23%) and the CSI (-0.08%) surrendering their opening gains whilst the Nikkei (+0.10%) and the KOSPI (+0.34%) are just in positive territory. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are fluctuating between gains and losses with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.04%) just above flat while those on the NASDAQ 100 (-0.05%) trading fractionally lower ahead of the key inflation report. Data overnight from China showed that inflation accelerated to +1.8% y/y in December, in line with market expectations, driven by rising food prices despite economic activity remaining soft due to Covid. It followed the prior month’s reading of +1.6%. However, factory gate prices (producer prices) dropped -0.7% y/y in December (v/s -0.1% expected), but up from a fall of -1.3% in November. Elsewhere, Australia’s trade surplus unexpectedly grew in November to A$13.20 billion (v/s +A$11.30 billion expected), compared with last month’s revised reading of A$12.74 billion. The figure was at its highest level since a record high hit in June. In the FX market, the Japanese yen (+0.77%) is strengthening against the dollar this morning, trading at $131.43 following the news that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will review the side-effects of its ultra-loose policy at next week’s policy meeting. Elsewhere, several commodities have put in a pretty decent performance over the last 24 hours. For instance, Brent crude oil prices were back up by +3.21% to $82.67/bbl, having risen every day so far this week. They are up another +0.17% in Asia. Separately, copper prices were up +2.17% last night to their highest level since June, having been supported by growing optimism about Chinese demand given the reopening. Lastly, there wasn’t much data of note yesterday, although Italian retail sales for November unexpectedly grew by +0.8% (vs. -0.3% expected). To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the US CPI release for December, whilst other data includes the weekly initial jobless claims. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Harker, Bullard and Barkin, as well as the BoE’s Mann, and the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin. Tyler Durden Thu, 01/12/2023 - 07:57.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytJan 12th, 2023

The 8 best online flower delivery services we tested in 2023

Fresh flowers make a thoughtful and easy gift. We ordered 39 bouquets from 16 brands to find the best flowers for all occasions. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Fresh flowers make a thoughtful and easy gift. We ordered 39 bouquets from 16 brands to find the best flowers for all occasions.Lauren Savoie/InsiderWhether it's for Valentine's Day, a celebration, sympathy, or just because, sending fresh flowers is a thoughtful way to let someone know you care about them. Plus, it's easier than ever: There are dozens of online flower delivery services out there offering unique fresh bouquets, trendy dried flower arrangements, and even floral subscriptions.While our staff has used nearly every one of these merchants to send loved ones flowers over the years, we wanted to know exactly how they stack up against one another. We ordered 39 arrangements from 16 popular brands, sending the flowers to Insider Reviews team members all over the country. Our goal was to find a service that delivers the freshest, most attractive flowers that arrive on time — no matter your location.You can read more about our methodology, and find out more about what services didn't make the cut here.Here are the best online flower delivery services in 2023Best flower delivery service overall: UrbanStemsUrbanStems makes some of the most stunning bouquets we've found and offers something for everyone, with a diverse selection of fresh flowers, dried flowers, plants, gifts, and subscriptions.Best flower delivery service for farm-fresh flowers: Farmgirl FlowersFarmgirl Flowers offers unique and playful arrangements that change with what's in season and with many blooms sourced from California farmers.Best flower delivery service for custom arrangements: FloracracyFloracracy's custom arrangements are a unique way to mark life's meaningful moments and make gifting flowers feel incredibly personal and special. Best flower delivery service for same-day delivery: FTDFTD offers hundreds of bouquets, gifts, and plants for delivery in all 50 states and 150 counties, with many options for same-day arrival.  Best flower delivery subscription: BloomsyBoxBloomsyBox offers a la carte bouquets and plants, but its wide variety of subscription plans are where the service really shines.Best flower delivery service for preserved roses: RoseBoxPreserved roses are incredibly popular and can last more than a year with proper care. We love Rosebox for preserved roses because of its robust selection of arrangements, vases, and colors.Best flower delivery service for fresh roses: Roses OnlyAs the name implies, Roses Only sells just one product, but it does it remarkably well, delivering some of the most pristine, stunning, long-stemmed roses we've ever seen.Best flower delivery service for dried bouquets: East OliviaFresh flowers have a short lifespan, but dried florals from East Olivia can last for years with proper care — and feature inventive colors and textures not found in traditional fresh bouquets. Best flower delivery service overallLauren Savoie/Maria Del Russo/Rachael Shultz/InsiderUrbanStems makes some of the most stunning bouquets we've found and offers something for everyone, with a diverse selection of fresh flowers, dried flowers, plants, gifts, and subscriptions.  Price range: $45 to $185Delivery area: Lower 48 statesSame-day delivery: Yes, in New York City and Washington, D.C. onlyNext-day delivery: YesShipping: $10 to $15, depending on delivery date and methodShop all flowers on UrbanStemsPros: Lots of options to choose from, including dried bouquets and plants; attractive floral designs in a range of styles, sizes, and pricesCons: Some testers noted flowers lasted a few days less than other brandsUrbanStems offers a robust selection of modern, fresh bouquets, along with dried flowers, plants, candles, chocolate, and subscriptions. It's a great one-stop shop to find something that feels unique to your recipient.We tried the Juliet, Luna, and Double the Pink Champagne fresh bouquets, along with the Aspen dried bouquet and Claude plant. Everything arrived on time and in excellent condition. The arrangements were some of the freshest, most attractive bouquets we tested and were filled with lively, creative blooms in a range of colors.The bouquets lasted a little over a week — average for fresh-cut flowers — and the dried bouquet and plant are still going strong. The site is also very easy to navigate and lets you filter by occasion, color, price, and more.Read our full review of UrbanStems.Worth a look:Double the Juliet, $129The Finesse, $80The Suri dried bouquet, $115The Pucker Up flower and chocolate gift set, $125Best flower delivery service for farm-fresh flowersLauren Savoie/Connie Chen/InsiderFarmgirl Flowers offers unique and playful arrangements that change with what's in season and with many blooms sourced from California farmers.Price range: $50 to $250Delivery area: Lower 48 statesSame-day delivery: NoNext-day delivery: Possible, but not guaranteedShipping: $25Shop all bouquets from Farmgirl FlowersPros: Whimsical, in-season blooms; each bouquet is unique; moderately priced; offers some rare flowers; some florals are grown in the US Cons: Surprise bouquets are not ideal if you have specific flowers you want to include or avoid; some customers report wilting or short-lived bloomsIf you're after an arrangement that looks like it was recently plucked from the garden, Farmgirl Flowers offers inventive and playful bouquets based on what's in season. Farmgirl's flagship offerings are the Fun Size, Just Right, and Big Love bouquets (formerly Mini, Midi, and Maxi). You don't get to choose what you receive; instead, Farmgirl puts together a bouquet based on what's available and in season. The company's website and social media give you an idea of what to expect, but every bouquet is slightly different, giving it a special, unique feel. We received a Just Right and a Big Love, as well as another Just Right sent to a tester in California. We loved that the arrangements had a whimsical, wild shape to them, and they were gorgeous from every angle. The Just Right and Big Love both appeared the same size when we first received them, but after a few hours in water, the Big Love's closed buds opened up to create a fuller bouquet. If you want your bouquet to include (or avoid) certain flowers, Farmgirl also offers a few dozen specialty bouquets, including some rare blooms like flower breeder David Austin's Patience roses.Worth a look:Just Right Burlap-Wrapped Bouquet, $79Before Sunrise David Austin and Wabara roses, $101Bright of my Life, $120Rose Goes, $55Best flower delivery service for custom arrangementsLauren Savoie/Connie Chen/InsiderFloracracy's custom arrangements are a unique way to mark life's meaningful moments and make gifting flowers feel incredibly personal and special. Price range: $155 to $350Delivery area: Lower 48 statesSame-day delivery: NoNext-day delivery: YesShipping: IncludedShop all flowers on FloracracyPros: Completely customizable arrangements, online tool helps you choose the right arrangement, beautiful packaging, thoughtful extras like a petal pressing book and mini shears, letter writing serviceCons: Online tool can be a bit tricky to navigate, lots of packaging (though most options are compostable or recyclable), few budget optionsIf you really want to wow your giftee with something special, a custom arrangement from Floracracy is perhaps the most personal flower gift you can buy. Every aspect of the design can be customized, from the shape and the colors to the blooms.If you're not sure where to start, the company's design tool walks you through a quiz that lets you select the intended recipient, occasion, and meaning you wish to convey to make a recommendation. Each flower is paired with a meaning from the company's thorough research of historical flower symbolism. You're also given the option to write a letter yourself or have the company write one for you based on the information you provide.The arrangements we received from Floracracy were the lushest and most vibrant we've ever seen from a flower delivery service. Each arrangement comes with a coordinating vase, a handbound book for pressing petals, and an illustrated card with each of the flowers and their meaning. Our blooms lasted almost three weeks — longer than any other arrangement. While this service is pricier and requires some of your time to design, it makes for a truly meaningful and memorable flower gift. Read our full review of Floracracy here.Worth a look:Chloe Tussie Mussie, $195Arch, $365Edge, $155George, $215Best flower delivery service for same-day deliveryLauren Savoie/Jenny McGrath/InsiderFTD offers hundreds of bouquets, gifts, and plants for delivery in all 50 states and 150 counties, with many options for same-day arrival.  Price range: $40 to $225Delivery area: All 50 states, 150 countriesSame-day delivery: YesNext-day delivery: YesShipping: Starts at $17.99 and varies based on delivery date and order totalShop all flowers from FTDPros: Orders filled by local florists; a large selection of bouquets, plants, and giftsCons: Experience can vary based on which florist fills your order, designs are more traditional and less modernWhen you need to send flowers fast, a floral wire service is your best option. Florists' Transworld Delivery Service (FTD) has been in the flower delivery business for more than 100 years and partners with local florists to fulfill and deliver orders in all 50 states and more than 150 countries. In many cases, you'll also have the option of same-day delivery. The arrangements lean toward more traditional colors and flowers instead of more modern or unique designs.Compared to other similar floral wire services, we had a better experience with FTD. The bouquets and plants we received were fuller, fresher, and in better condition than blooms from 1-800-Flowers. Of course, since orders are typically filled by local florists, your experience may vary depending on who ultimately fills your order.If you need to send flowers quickly, internationally, or to hard-to-reach places, FTD is the best same-day service we've found.Read our full review of FTD.Worth a look:Clear Skies Bouquet, $85Magnolia Sapling with Lavender Soap & Lotion Duet, $110Fiesta Bouquet, $90Light of My Life Bouquet, $65Best flower subscriptionLauren Savoie/InsiderBloomsyBox offers a la carte bouquets and plants, but its wide variety of subscription plans are where the service really shines.   Price range: $45 to $70Delivery area: Nationwide, except Puerto Rico and HawaiiSame-day delivery: N/A for subscriptionsNext-day delivery: N/A for subscriptionsShipping: Free with subscriptionShop all flower subscriptions on BloomsyBoxPros: Multiple weekly and monthly plans to choose from, offers month-to-month and prepaid plans, bouquets are gorgeous, a la carte bouquets and plants availableCons: Don't get to choose which flowers are in your bouquet, which might not be a good option for those with allergies or petsFlower subscriptions are a great way to brighten someone's day on a more frequent basis — or to liven up your own home with regularly-scheduled blooms. BloomsyBox offers a robust fleet of weekly and monthly subscription options at reasonable prices. You can pay month-to-month or save a few dollars by prepaying for 3-, 6-, or 12-month subscriptions. While the retailer also sells a la carte bouquets and plants, we think its subscriptions offer the best value.We tried BloomsyBox's priciest subscription: Its NYBG Collection. Each bouquet in the subscription is curated by the New York Botanical Garden's floral experts and features blooms that are in season. A portion of the subscription goes to supporting the NYBG's plant science and conservation efforts.We highly recommend BloomsyBox's subscriptions to anyone looking for a bit of floral cheer on a regular basis. It's a nice treat each month to get an e-mail saying a new bouquet is on the way. Worth a look:Bloomsy Deluxe Subscription, $49.99 per monthThe NYBG Subscription, $69.99 per monthPet-Safe Blooms Subscription, $49.99 per monthBloomsy Eucalyptus Subscription, $39.99 per monthBest flower delivery service for preserved rosesLauren Savoie/Maliah West/Hannah Freedman/InsiderPreserved roses are incredibly popular and can last more than a year with proper care. We love Rosebox for preserved roses because of its robust selection of arrangements, vases, and colors.Price range: $89 to $1,119Delivery area: All 50 statesSame-day delivery: Yes, in Manhattan onlyNext-day delivery: YesShipping: $0 to $30, depending on delivery date and order totalShop all preserved flowers on RoseBoxPros: More than 20 rose color options, many container types, smell and look like fresh roses, can last a year or longer with proper careCons: Don't have the same feel as real rosesIf you've been on Instagram lately, chances are you've seen these trendy preserved roses somewhere on your feed. Usually packed into boxes or displayed in a classic ball arrangement, these flowers are incredibly popular with influencers and celebrities. We tested three preserved rose brands and found the quality very similar. Ultimately, we chose RoseBox as the best preserved roses for its diverse range of color and display options. We particularly liked that its plentiful display containers had discreet branding or none at all, unlike other preserved rose brands that their cover containers (which can't be separated from the flowers) with logos.  Almost all of RoseBox's 90+ products can be customized with 21 or more different rose color options. One of our testers opted for turquoise, while others chose more classic red and pink varieties. Preserved roses are expensive, no matter what brand you choose. A single preserved rose will cost you anywhere from $44 to $89, which is the same price as a full-sized bouquet from most of our other top picks. Expect a medium-sized array of preserved roses to cost about $300. That said, they can end up being an economical alternative to buying flowers every week. We're eager to see if our arrangements live up to their purported longevity.Worth a look:Mini Modern Mirror Box, $119Single Flame Rose Jewelry Box, $89Signature Half Ball of 55 Roses, $479Custom Initial Box, $475Best flower delivery service for fresh rosesLauren Savoie/Katie Decker-Jacoby/InsiderAs the name implies, Roses Only sells just one product but it does it remarkably well, delivering some of the most pristine, stunning, long-stemmed roses we've ever seen.Price range: $49 to $669Delivery area: All 50 states and internationally to the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Singapore, and AustraliaSame-day delivery: Yes, in New York City and Los Angeles onlyNext-day delivery: YesShipping: $19.95Shop all roses on Roses OnlyPros: Stunning roses; beautiful presentation; long-lasting flowers; available in quantities from six to 100Cons: Limited product and color choices.Roses are such a big seller that we made sure every arrangement we received as part of this guide included at least some of them. Having seen the spectrum of what's out there, we can confidently say that Roses Only delivers the most pristine, long-lasting roses we've found.So much care is put into the delivery: The cartoonishly perfect long-stemmed roses (which you can order in quantities of 6-100) come packaged in a long, elegant box with a linen ribbon, and every rose has its own water reservoir to ensure it arrives pristine. The roses themselves are flawless, with big velvety petals. They lasted about two weeks and gradually opened up until each bud was about palm-sized.At about $8 per flower, Roses Only sells some of the most expensive roses out there, but if it's just fresh roses you're after, no flower delivery service does it better.Worth a look:One Dozen Red Roses, $856 Yellow Roses, $5936 Red Roses, $175One Dozen Pink Roses and Godiva Chocolate, $115Best flower delivery service for dried bouquetsLauren Savoie/InsiderFresh flowers have a short lifespan but dried florals from East Olivia can last for years with proper care and feature inventive colors and textures not found in traditional fresh bouquets. Price range: $60 to $225Delivery area: All 50 statesSame-day delivery: NoNext-day delivery: NoShipping: $12.99Shop all dried flowers at East OliviaPros: Unique and inventive designs, each arrangement comes with a coordinating vase, options change seasonally, arrangements can last a year or longer with proper careCons: Order processing can take up to five business days, limited edition collections can sell out quicklyNo matter how pretty the bouquet, fresh flowers will all eventually wilt. Dried bouquets are a good solution for those who love the look of florals but hate the upkeep. Some of the most creative and beautiful preserved arrangements we've seen come from East Olivia.The offerings change seasonally, but at the time of our testing, the brand featured a winter collection and Valentine's Day collection, both featuring ornamental grasses and filler flowers dyed dreamy pastel colors. Each bouquet comes fully arranged and delicately packaged with its own matching ceramic vase. We love knowing that we'll get many, many months of enjoyment out of these.The fact that East Olivia's collections change with the season makes each arrangement feel special. Order processing can take up to five business days, so you'll want to plan ahead if you plan on gifting one of these dried arrangements, especially considering the limited edition collections can sell out quickly.Worth a look:Pink Pampas, $65The Samantha Spring XL, $185The Samantha Fall Bud, $60What else we testedCaitlin Petreycik/Lauren Savoie/InsiderWe tested 16 brands for our guide to the best flower delivery services. Here are the ones that didn't quite make the cut.What else we recommend and why:The Bouqs Co.: The first time we tested The Bouqs, we received lackluster results. The grand Santa Cruz'n arrangement came with half the number of promised blooms, many were wilted, and flowers were zip-tied directly to the shipping box with only a single sheet of paper laid over them for protection. The Bouqs claimed they fixed these issues, so we tried the service again recently with three more bouquets sent to three testers. The bouquets were noticeably fuller, better protected, and fresher this time around. We're upping the brand's status from "not recommended" to "recommended," but still keeping a close eye on reader reports of quality and freshness.  Ode à la Rose: Ode à la Rose makes beautiful, minimalist bouquets often consisting of just one to three flower types. The bouquets we received from Ode à la Rose were breathtaking, and this service is a fantastic option if you live in New York City, Philadelphia, or Chicago where you can choose from a wider selection of arrangements and have the option of same-day delivery. However, the selection is limited, especially for nationwide delivery (only 10 bouquets were available for delivery to Boston).Venus Et Fleur: This preserved rose brand delivered fresh-smelling, attractive roses. We loved the quality of the blooms and the creative options available on the site. However, we wished there were more container options, especially those that don't have Venus Et Fleur branding so prominently displayed.Bouquet Box: Bouquet Box offers you a chance to hone your flower arranging skills with a kit of flowers and instructions for arranging them. It's pricey compared to other comparable services, but we really enjoyed the experience and the instructions. We felt like we learned a skill and got a great bouquet. Plus, the shears, thorn-stripper, vase, and grid from the welcome kit are great home additions to have.Pomp: Pomp features sustainably-grown flowers from the owners' farms in Colombia. The roses are the stand-out option. We're looking forward to seeing Pomp's selection expand as the brand grows.Fresh Sends: Fresh Sends offers two products: a "regular" or "full" bouquet. You don't know what sort of arrangement you'll be receiving; the offerings change daily. While this is a great option if you struggle with decision fatigue (and love fun packaging), the "full" bouquet was quite small for $85.What we don't recommend and why:Rosepops: This preserved rose brand sends its arrangements packed in lidded boxes. When it arrives, you remove the lid and pull on the box strings to "pop" the roses up above the lid of the box for presentation. The popping mechanism was unique (and nice for storage). However, our testers thought the large and prominent logos on all the containers cheapened the presentation, and the website isn't intuitive to navigate.1-800-Flowers: While the selection is robust, the website is a bit tricky to navigate. The bouquet we received was skimpier and less impressive than others from similar services. Our Seattle-based tester noted that the orchid she ordered wasn't packed very well for shipping, and a lot of the gravel and soil in the container were spilled when it arrived.Our flower delivery service testing methodologyLauren Savoie/InsiderTo find the best flower delivery service, we conducted hands-on testing of every brand in this guide. We ordered two to three arrangements from each brand, evaluating the selection, ordering, and delivery process. We sent bouquets to testers in different parts of the country — including New York City, Boston, Los Angeles, Seattle, rural Colorado, and suburban Connecticut — to see if quality and delivery time varied based on location. In all, we tested 39 bouquets from 16 brands. Here's what we looked for in the best flower delivery service:Ordering: We scrutinized the ordering process of each service, noting whether the website was simple to navigate, what the product selection was like, and how easy it was to place an order. We also looked at shipping options and estimated delivery times.Delivery: We noted whether the arrangements arrived when they said they would (all did), evaluated packaging, and looked at the condition of the flowers when they first arrived. Testers across the country compared notes; we found delivery times and quality consistent across the country.Quality of flowers: We looked for full bouquets of lively-looking flowers that matched the description and photo of the arrangement we ordered online. We read all care instructions and followed them meticulously, noting how long the flowers remained fresh enough to display. Consistency: A good flower service should deliver quality blooms no matter the location of your recipient. Our testers across the country took photos and detailed notes about delivery and bouquet quality to compare experiences.FAQs about flower delivery servicesLauren Savoie/InsiderWhen should I order flowers for Valentine's Day, Mother's Day, and other popular holidays?While many flower delivery services offer next-day delivery for most of the year, all bets are off when it comes to major holidays like Valentine's Day and Mother's Day. When ordering around popular holidays, a safe bet is to place your order two weeks in advance of the day you want the flowers delivered. This will ensure you have plenty of arrangements and delivery dates to choose from.Is it safe to have fresh flowers around pets?It depends on the types of flowers. The ASPCA maintains a comprehensive list of flowers and plants and whether they are toxic or safe for dogs and cats. It's important to remember that certain plants can still be toxic to animals even if they are kept out of reach; pollen and other airborne spores can get into the fur of animals and be ingested during grooming. If you're ordering flowers for a household that has pets, it's best to stick with a service that allows you to see the types of flowers in the arrangement before ordering. Some brands, like Fresh Sends or subscription services, don't allow you to preview the bouquet before it's sent, which could land you with a bouquet that isn't pet safe.Our top pick, UrbanStems, lists the type of flowers in each arrangement, so you can check to make sure it's safe for your pet. Some brands, like Floracracy, take it a step further and let you completely customize your bouquet so you can be sure to only include plants and flowers that are safe.  How long do fresh flowers last?A lot depends on how recently the flowers were cut before they arrived at your home. Flowers can be cut hours, days, or weeks before shipping to you, greatly varying their lifespan in your home. On average, however, you can expect fresh flowers to last five days to a week in a vase with good care. If you're interested in longer-lasting flowers, preserved roses or a dried bouquet are great options.What's the best way to keep fresh flowers alive longer?Some ways to extend the life of your fresh flowers include cutting the stems before putting them in water, using flower food in the water (often supplied with the bouquet, but can be homemade), and changing the water whenever it gets discolored or cloudy. You can read more tips for keeping flowers fresh here. Remember that you don't have to trash the whole bouquet if a few flowers are dead or wilted; just remove the dead flowers and rearrange or tighten the bouquet as needed (you may need to downsize to a smaller vase). Hardy flowers with woody stems (like roses) can last several weeks with proper care.   What are the best types of flowers to buy?When in doubt, roses are a great pick. They're long-lasting, easy to care for, and largely pet safe. You can get roses in all sorts of colors, shapes, and sizes to suit any recipient. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 11th, 2023

Entrepreneurs are charging up to $50,000 to preserve people"s memories in books, films, and even holograms before they die as the personal-memoir business ramps up

Rutger Bruining's company, StoryTerrace, charges $5,000 to turn a family film into a 3D video that people can watch via a virtual-reality headset. Storyworth sells keepsake books compiling people's memories for $100.Describe the Fauna Memoirs and biographies are growing in popularity — now people want to write their own. Companies like The Family Film and Storyworth are capitalizing on this trend. One ghostwriting company is venturing into VR storytelling for luxury customers, charging $5,000. Nick Baum credits his 82-year-old father with inspiring him to start Storyworth, a do-it-yourself-memoir company, 10 years ago."I didn't have any kids yet, but I had the sense that even if I did, he might not be around to see them and get to know them," Baum told Insider.To remedy that issue, he started emailing his father once every week, each message containing a single question intended to prompt some details about his life.Nick Baum, the founder of Storyworth.Videgro"There were mundane questions like, 'What were your favorite toys growing up?'" Baum said, "that gave a lot of texture."  After realizing others might be interested in a similar service, he left his job as a product manager at Google to offer it commercially.  According to data supplied to Insider by the literature-research firm WordsRated, memoir and biography was the best-selling hard-copy category on Amazon in 2020, and almost 50% of nonfiction books on the New York Times bestseller list are biographies or memoirs. Data from NPD BookScan, which tracks retail print-book sales, showed memoir sales peaking at 28 million in America in 2020, a rise of more than 24% year over year.It's no wonder, then, that entrepreneurs think there's huge potential in helping folks create their own autobiographies. Baum said what makes Storyworth appealing was its streamlined do-it-yourself approach, which keeps costs to a minimum: Customers pay $100 for a year of weekly questions, plus a keepsake book compiling the respondent's answers."Until now, people were recording their stories two ways — either you were very wealthy and hired someone to be your biographer, or you were very motivated and spent time writing it up all by hand," he said. "We take something that's either expensive or dauntingly time-consuming and make it very manageable."His typical customer, he said, is a woman between the ages of 35 and 55 who gifts book to a relative.Andrew Gemmell, the founder of The Family Film.Holly ClarkAndrew Gemmell, the founder of The Family Film, charges about $50,000 for an in-depth, professional-caliber film that combines archival footage and photos with hours of specially recorded interviews, whether taped remotely or in person. Gemmell is well versed in handling the tricky temperaments and revelations that such interviews might unearth — he was hired to photograph Elton John's bachelor party and the weddings of both Princess Eugenie and her sister, Beatrice.The Family Film charges $50,000 for an in-depth movie of a family's history.Courtesy of The Family FilmHis idea was, like Baum's, inspired by his father, who drowned in an accident when Gemmell was 18. Gemmell started filming relatives telling stories about his dad to better remember and understand him."In a world where we're constantly creating digital waste, when our phone dies, so does what's on them," he said. "So we're curating for those who don't have the time and effort."Rutger Bruining's company, StoryTerrace, in London and Los Angeles, started out as just another writer-for-hire platform. Today, it still offers that service, with more than 650 writers worldwide on its roster and clients paying up to $27,500 for a 60,000-word book based on 30 hours of interviews. Bruining's team even offers an option to promote a customer's self-published tome to try to score a spot on one or two bestseller lists.But he isn't relying solely on the ghostwriting model: Bruining just announced a partnership with the hologram-technology firm 8i. For $5,000, customers receive a quartet of stories captured on video, which are then rendered into 3D so that descendants can immerse themselves in the moment with their ancestral storyteller using a virtual-reality headset.Rutger Bruining's company, StoryTerrace, has recently ventured into virtual-reality memoirs.Courtesy of StoryTerraceHe sees this as an upsell that's likely to appeal to the top 20% of those hiring StoryTerrace for a conventional biography and has already trialed the project with the LA handbag designer Jerry Terrence, an existing client."Lots of people have home videos," he said. ''So you can either make a very beautiful, very expensive documentary or create something where an older person is talking for a long time, which isn't that enjoyable to watch. VR is more scalable, and the experience is much more immersive than a 2D film."His core customer for memoir writing is someone gifted the service for their 70th birthday or an anniversary."We have one guy from Switzerland who said, 'I'll do the book, but it's going to be in my safe until I'm dead.'"StoryTerrace charges up to $27,500 for an autobiography.Courtesy of StoryTerraceBen Yagoda, the author of "Memoir: A History," told Insider the surge in interest in memoirs had been powered mostly by the broadening of subjects who write these types of books."At one point, autobiography was only the province of statesmen, movie stars, and eminent authors, but in the late 20th century, it became the province of regular people," Yagoda said.Social media, podcasts, and self-publishing platforms have also created ways for people to share their stories with a wide audience.Baum added that distance — and the pandemic — had encouraged people to invest in memorializing themselves and others."People live further apart now, when there used to be three generations under one roof who'd sit and tell stories at the dinner table," he said.Baum's father, who's still alive, still talking, and now has several grandchildren, just turned 92."I feel very lucky that my children have several hundred pages of stories from him," he said.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytJan 11th, 2023

ZH Geopolitical Week Ahead: Chaos In Brazil, China Reopens Borders, Heavy Tanks For Ukraine

ZH Geopolitical Week Ahead: Chaos In Brazil, China Reopens Borders, Heavy Tanks For Ukraine A weekly round-up of geopolitical flashpoint and energy news we're keeping our eyes on, and trends impacting global markets, which will later be accessible for Premium members and above... With the smoke still clearing from Brazil's capital amid the pro-Bolsonaro unrest, Lula is ready to go on the offensive and 'punish' the 'rioters' and so-called "terrorists", with the to-be-expected comparisons to Jan.6 filling mainstream headlines. Bolsonaro himself has been in Florida since last month, and Monday was admitted to the hospital, but there's growing calls from US progressive lawmakers to cancel his visa. This despite widespread admissions, including from the NYT, that he called on his supporters to allow for peaceful transition of power, and to essentially 'move on'. Brazil's currency slipped in the immediate aftermath, with uncertainty in still spooked Brazilian markets after volatile trade amid the initial 'shock' of the capital chaos... Brasil events meant that media consumers were given a brief respite from non-stop Russia-Ukraine developments dominating headlines, as CNN and others focused on scenes of the weekend chaos which gripped Brasilia. And yet the conflict in Eastern Europe is still escalating, with the Kremlin on Monday stressing it sees itself as already at war with NATO inside Ukraine. This as Western allies, with the UK leading the way, are now weighing heavy tanks for Ukraine, and not just the troop carriers or 'light tanks' earlier pledged by France and the US. The West continues to go 'all in' regarding keeping Kiev away from the negotiating table, as was on display concerning Putin's failed Christmas truce attempt. Zelensky is meanwhile thanking Washington for the latest $3 billion "Christmas present". The White House is touting that Ukraine aid is "rock solid" through at least 2023. China continues its big reopening amid its Covid strategy pivot, with reports of Chinese citizens scrambling to get their passports in order, perhaps just waiting anxiously for a reversal by Beijing authorities and planners. But reports of huge numbers of infected amid the Covid wave continue unabated for now. China and the US keep signaling over Taiwan, with the Chinese PLA steadily ramping up war drills and muscle-flexing, with breaches of the Taiwan Strait median line now becoming a regular thing. The US-Taiwan trade delegation talks - with the involvement of Biden administration officials - are set to kick off Saturday, with Beijing's reaction anticipated to be fierce.  Below are global developments we are closely following this week... Russia-Ukraine Putin's Christmas ceasefire is being widely seen as a failure, with NY Times calling it 'effort to divide the West': NYT Heavy shelling was reported in Ukraine's east through much of the 'ceasefire': Rtrs Friday's new $3.075 billion weapons package is to include some 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles for the first time: Politico Western allies weigh sending heavy tanks: WSJ "Bloodiest fighting" currently at Bakhmut and Soledar: Axios Russians fleeing possibility of being sent to war stranded at Seoul airport: Moscow Times Kremlin official says 'not at war with Ukraine, but whole of NATO': TASS Over 100 Russian artists and public figures on a Ukraine sanctions list: AJ Zelensky revoked the citizenship of 13 Orthodox priests: IFX Russia probes its own prominent critics: AP US alleged Iran "contributing to widespread war crimes" in Ukraine: Axios Sweden says Turkey making demands it can't fulfil for NATO membership: FT Sweden conscription for better defense readiness? RT Erdogan says he's ready to mediate "lasting peace" in Ukraine: AA Russia claimed Sunday it conducted a retaliation strike on Ukrainian troops, killing 600: VOA Ukraine vehemently denies the Russian strike claims on a barracks in Kramatorsk: BBC Ukraine school at location rejects claim: AP Foreign policy "experts" think Russia will collapse or break apart in next decade: BI US not seeing any indications Belarus will send troops into Ukraine: Sky News Both sides in talks for more prisoner swaps: Sky News Kiev claims Moscow to mobilize 500k more conscripts: Politico China-Asia New Chinese drills near Taiwan: Rtrs Beijing angry after US Navy's 1st Taiwan Strait transit of 2023: Maritime Executive War-gaming a China-Taiwan conflict: CNN US military deepens ties with Japan and Philippines to prepare for China threat: FT China extending supply and logistics network deep into South Pacific? SCMP European delegation visits Taiwan: Republic World Readying for US-Taiwan trade delegation talks involving Biden admin: BBG Qin Gang's first trip as FM is to Africa: SCMP Travel influx as China reopens: AP  Chinese citizens rush to renew passports as Covid border curbs lifted: Rtrs Hong Kong, China border reopening: Japan Times Official says than 88 million people in 3rd most populous province have Covid: BBC Kim Jong-un recently called for an "exponential" increase in the production of nuclear weapons Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing recently, pledged that maritime disputes will be handled in "friendly" manner: Al Arabiya  Japan PM Kishida starts tour of G7 countries, talks military build-up and chip supply: Rtrs Middle East Drone shot down over Iraqi air base, Ain al-Asad, hosting US forces: New Arab Iranians demonstrate against protest-related executions: BBC Iranian diplomats to be expelled from Western countries?: VOA Israeli gov bars Palestinian flags from all public places: MEE Over $9BN pledged by international donors for Pakistan flood recovery: AJ Heavy fighting in oil-rich Yemeni province: Xinhua Economic collapse, misery especially in northern Syria: MEE US not happy with Syria-Turkey reconciliation talks; Assad & Erdogan to meet? The Cradle Latin America/World Immigration, trade top agenda for Biden's Mexico visit: VOA Biden first president to visit Mexico since 2014: WaPo Biden's "tightly controlled visit" to southern border his 1st time as president: CNN Venezuelan Embassy in US shuttered as opposition crumbles: AW Brazil unrest: hundreds of Bolsonaro supporters arrested: WSJ Pundits make J6 comparisons, condemn "terrorism", Lula vows punishment: WaPo Wife says Bolsonaro admitted to hospital in Florida: BBC US progressive lawmakers want Bolsonaro booted: NYT Russian ship under US sanctions stops in S.Africa, prompting questions: WSJ Energy US gasoline demand and prices still rising: OP China expands South China Sea gas field: SCMP Kuwait plans to increase diesel exports to EU: The Cradle Energy crisis makes Europe the world’s premium LNG market: OP Russia’s Rosneft looks to supply gas to China via Power Of Siberia 2 Pipeline: OP ‘Meltdown’ of European industry averted with warm winter, Germany’s Habeck says: BBG Canadians will see high oil, gas prices through 2023, experts say: 'A very expensive time': GN Tyler Durden Mon, 01/09/2023 - 17:20.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJan 9th, 2023

$54M Braemar luxury senior residence breaks ground in Montebello, NY

Owner/developers FilBen Group and RSF Partners, general contractor McAlpine Contracting, and designer H2M Architects + Engineers broke ground for Braemar at Montebello, a new 200-resident, 133,675-square foot, four-level luxury assisted living residence located on 6.2 bucolic Lower Hudson Valley acres at 250 Lafayette Avenue in Montebello. The property is close... The post $54M Braemar luxury senior residence breaks ground in Montebello, NY appeared first on Real Estate Weekly. Owner/developers FilBen Group and RSF Partners, general contractor McAlpine Contracting, and designer H2M Architects + Engineers broke ground for Braemar at Montebello, a new 200-resident, 133,675-square foot, four-level luxury assisted living residence located on 6.2 bucolic Lower Hudson Valley acres at 250 Lafayette Avenue in Montebello. The property is close to Harriman State Park in Rockland County and offers breathtaking views of adjacent woods, large private properties, meadows, and rolling hills. The parcel is adjacent to a larger site that includes the Montebello commercial center, which will offer Braemar’s residents access to retail, entertainment, dining, and medical services within close proximity of their home. The Braemar property also neighbors the Good Samaritan Hospital – Suffern in Montebello, a part of Bon Secours Charity Health System (BSCHS), a member of the Westchester Medical Center Health Network (WMC Health). Braemar is a brand of FilBen-owned and operated senior living communities. The first property, the Braemar at Medford in Medford, NY, opened its doors in 2008. The Braemar at Wallkill in Middletown, NY, the second property to open under the brand, welcomed its first residents in 2015. The Montebello community will be the third Braemar-branded residence when it opens in 2024. FilBen plans to begin construction of its fourth property, a 152-bed assisted living community in Carmel, NY, in early 2023. “We expect senior residents of Rockland County, the Lower Hudson Valley, as well as the greater New York area and northern New Jersey, to be drawn to the active lifestyle that this community will offer,” said Jessica Cotellese, Manager of Development for FilBen Group. “This $54 million project will add a beautiful, high quality senior care residence for the Montebello and Rockland County communities,” said McAlpine Vice President John Nolan. “Because of the location of the future building on a sloping site, which will offer breathtaking views to the residents, the project presents several technical and logistical challenges to the construction and design team. For example, construction of foundations and the structural system will proceed in a phased, staggered manner to accelerate theschedule, while addressing access and site engineering complexities,” he added. The total development cost of the project is $54 million, including $36 million in construction cost. The owner/developer is a partnership between FilBen Group and RSF Partners, a private equity firm based in Dallas, TX. M&T Bank provided a $34.8 million construction loan. The Montebello site is long, narrow, and sloped, which created design challenges as well. “The building footprint is elongated and fairly shallow to match the property configuration,” shared Mark McKee, AIA, H2M Senior Architect. “Large areas of glazing will draw natural light into all of the interiors and will offer grander views than are typical available in other senior residences.” H2M designed the Braemer Wallkill property and is currently working with FilBen on the design of the Carmel development. Additional team members include site engineer Booker Engineering, landscape designer Robert G. Torgersen, LA; mechanical/electrical/plumbing (MEP) engineer Fellenzer Engineering LLP; and structural engineer Mulhern+Kulp Residential Structural Engineering. Project design drawn from site and local architectural influences“The property slopes significantly from a high point at the south toward a low point at the north, and the linear building plan will be placed perpendicular to the line of the slope, with three levels above grade to the south and an additional lower level above grade to the north,” explained Nolan. The building plan will have a central section and two symmetrical wings that will bend from that section toward the north. A port cochere and circular vehicular drop off will be centered in the south façade on the main level, on grade with the main parking lot to the south and a staff parking lot and service entrance to the east. Activeoutdoor resident areas will be located at both the north and south building facades, while hiking paths will span the grounds. Victorian-era buildings in the surrounding area provided the design inspiration for the building façade. Simulated wood look horizontal beveled siding in a neutral palette will be combined with stone veneers at the main level facing the outdoor patios and on the upper levels above the entrance. Columns with stone veneer bases will support the pitched roof of the porte-cochère. Windows will be in a traditional double-hung style. The roof will feature pitched mansard sections on the perimeter and reverse gables with decorative trim to invoke a Victorian aesthetic. Proactive construction modifications will expedite project schedule and reduce costsMcAlpine has developed a phased process of excavation, starting at the east and moving west, in order to accelerate the project. A poured concrete foundation will support exterior load bearing concrete masonry unit (CMU) walls, concrete plank floors and roof, and light gauge metal stud interior walls. The slope will need to be excavated in order to place the structure. “The first section will be excavated, and foundations will be poured. As the structure above that foundation section is installed, excavation will continue on the next section, and the process will be repeated down the length of the building footprint,” explained Alan Hajtler, Executive Oversight at McAlpine. By applying this logistical solution, McAlpine expects to shorten project completion by four weeks. “Several façade and structural systems were considered for the project. The McAlpine team worked with H2M to select the most economical solution that would also be impervious to supply chain delays. The joined teams selected bearing concrete masonry unit (CMU) walls and concrete plank floors to meet the budget and to expedite the construction schedule,” shared McAlpine Project Manager Vitrag Shah. Interior spaces are designed for interactive community livingThe building will feature shared public spaces on the main, second, and third levels. A total of 143 residential units – 54 private, one-person studio units of approximately 400-square feet each and 57 two- bedroom semi-private “Friendship” units of approximately 600-square feet each – will be located on these levels, while additional 12 private and 10 Friendship units will be located on the lower level in a memory care section. The private units are studios with kitchenettes and private baths. The Friendship units have two bedrooms that share a kitchenette and bathroom. All kitchenettes and bathrooms are barrier-free and include roll-in showers. The visitor entrance on the main level will lead from the south parking lot into a two-story, 22-foot high cathedral-ceilinged atrium with a stone and wood reception desk, a tiled fireplace, and comfortable seating. Behind the desk, a feature wall in a curved wood pattern will evoke the Braemar logo. Beyond the reception area, a C-shaped grand staircase with metal balusters in a geometric pattern, a wood handrail, decorative trimwork and wall art will extend to the second level. A corridor will lead past the grand stair to the main double loaded corridor that bisects the floor. Two passenger elevators, one service elevator, andtwo additional stairs will provide vertical access and emergency egress to all levels. Administrative offices will be located adjacent to the reception area, but the majority of the remaining spaces in the central section and east wing of the main level will be occupied by common spaces. The primary public space is the 3,500-square foot main dining room that extends out from the north façade to offer stunning 180-degree views of the surrounding vistas. A private dining room will also be available for celebrations and private dinners. Along the south façade, a 1,200 square-foot pub and game room will offer lounge seating, game tables, a fireplace, televisions, and direct access to a billiard room. The pub will open onto the south terrace, where residents will be able to enjoy outdoor seating surrounded by a pergola, gazebo, and raised planting beds; stroll along walking paths; and even play a game of giant chess. Additional shared spaces include a billiard room, café, business lounge, general store, arts and crafts room with a sink and art tables, family loungewith an adjacent kids’ room, beauty salon, and coffee shop. The fitness center will be located adjacent to the wellness center, which will be equipped with a waiting area, exam room, medication room, offices for the director and staff, and a records storage room. The east wing will also include a commercial kitchen and food preparation area that services the entire property, as well as a receiving area for deliveries, a service lobby, and a staff lounge. The west wing will contain eight private and five Friendship rooms for a total of 26 beds. On the second level, common areas will include a 940-square foot parlor that will open onto a 1,000-square foot outdoor terrace with a pedestal paver system, decorative planters and comfortable seating for enjoying the views. The parlor will share a double-sided fireplace with the adjacent 510-square foot library. A 1,080-square foot cinema and a chapel will complete the public spaces. The floor will contain 22 private rooms and 24 Friendship rooms for a total of 70 beds. A large number of common spaces were included in the design to encourage social interaction and provide multiple options for entertainment and engagement. The private dining room, family room and kid’s room will allow residents to include their families in their lifestyle. Lectures and other special events, some of which will be open to outside attendees, will connect Braemar residents to the neighboring community. The third level floor plan is similar to the second, with a lounge and shared laundry room as well as 24 private rooms and 28 Friendship rooms for a total of 80 beds. A portion of the lower terrace level will house the memory care unit. This level will offer views to the natural landscape down the slope and beyond the property, with full exposure to natural light that will permeate the building interior. The level will contain 12 private units and 20 Friendship, two-bedroom units for a total of 33 beds. A dining and activity room will be centered in the footprint directly under the main level dining room above and will be wrapped with glass to provide similar views. Two lounges – one with an exit to the north terrace, the other a quiet space – will provide additional social interaction. Acircular staff desk with an integral medication room will provide oversight of the dining room and corridors. An exam room and therapy room complete the unit. The exterior terrace will be provided with comfortable lounge and dining furniture and will be protected by secure fencing. Maintenance and staff areas, separated from the residential units by dedicated service corridors, will occupy the north side of the lower level. These spaces include men’s and women’s locker rooms, laundry center, housekeeping storage, and medical waste room. Mechanical equipment rooms, maintenance shop, and server room area also located in this area. Interior design mirrors the surrounding landscape H2M designed the interiors in close collaboration with Cotellese, who has an interior design background. According to Cotellese, “The interior design inspiration came from the environment, including the water and proximity to the Hudson River and lush greenery of the various local state parks.” The intent is to create a visual landscape connecting all the elements – the environment, community, and the residents. The wall finishes and flooring in the common areas will include wood-look LVT, commercial grade carpeting, sheet vinyl, wallcovering, and a palette of nature-inspired colors. There will be accents of ceramic tile, and reclaimed wood fireplace mantels. “The materials will provide a soft visual background to layer upon with organic and geometric patterns. This will be seen in the decorative architectural elements, including focal walls and wood screening to furnishings, fabrics, and artwork. The patterns will mimic what one sees in the local landscape, such as river stones, the ripple of water, or a view through the trees,” continued Cotellese. Saturated pops of greens, blues, oranges, and purples will provide accents and offset the neutral paint tones and natural materials. The common area spaces are designed so that residents will have visual connections to theactivities around them, even if they are not personally engaged. Residences are also designed to be bright and welcoming with large windows that will provide natural light and expansive views. Bedrooms will be carpeted in neutral tones to match the soft blues and beiges of the walls. Kitchens will feature LVT flooring, wooden cabinetry, refrigerators, and microwaves. Ceilings will be a combination of drywall and wood plank. Bathrooms will have sheet vinyl flooring with a stone texture and accessible fixtures, including roll-in showers. Furniture will be provided, however residents will beable to either replace or complement the provided fixtures with cherished pieces from their previous homes and install their own window treatments. FilBen GroupFilBen Group is comprised of the Filaski and Benenson families that have worked closely together for more than 40 years to build, own, and operate senior housing and health care facilities in the New York metropolitan area. The FilBen team is expert in New York State senior living regulations and best practices as well as in providing comfortable, joyful, and safe environment to senior residents. To date, the principals of FilBen have built over 5,000 nursing-home beds, of which they owned 1,300 and operated over 800. The firm currently owns and operates 400 assisted living beds with another 352 beds under development. In addition to constructing and operating its own facilities, FilBen offers the full spectrum of development and management services, including site selection, development, construction, and project management as well as healthcare program development and operation to other senior care providers. FilBen principals have worked with numerous large not-for-profit agencies, such as Catholic Charities and Senior Citizen Housing Committee, to create over 1,400 units of independent senior housing. Most recently, the firm has been retained to manage a new assisted living residence owned by the Greek Orthodox Church, which is scheduled to open in Uniondale, NY in 2024. FilBen’s programs are acknowledged to be at the forefront of skilled nursing and sub-acute care, and its facilities include the latest healthcare technologies. This expertise and quality of services is reflected in numerous awards and recognitions. recognized the Braemar at Wallkill on its 2017 Best Assisted Living list. The Times Herald-Record included the Wallkill community on its 2022 Best of the Best Assisted Living list. RSF PartnersRSF Partners is a boutique private equity firm based in Dallas, TX that invests in niche subsectors of the real estate market. Since the firm’s founding in 1998, RSF has invested over $1 billion in discretionary private equity capital across real estate product types, layers of the capital stack, and regions of the United States. RSF has a particular focus on seniors housing and has made over 150 investments in the industry.   The team is committed to the seniors housing community and serves in leadership positions on various industry boards. RSF prioritizes relationships with operating partners to customize investment partnerships that are tailored to individual operator objectives.  McAlpine ContractingEstablished in 1991, McAlpine Contracting is a leading new construction and interior fit-out general contractor and construction manager operating throughout the greater New York Area, including New York City, Long Island, New Jersey, and Lower Hudson Valley as well as in Vermont. Headquartered in Manhattan, the firm has a portfolio of completed seniors housing, multi-family residential, commercial, and institutional projects totaling in excess of $2 billion in value. McAlpine’s expertise encompasses ground-up multi-family developments, office interiors, commercial building redevelopments, medical and healthcare projects, seniors housing, and educational facilities as well as retail, hospitality, industrial, technology, and public work. McAlpine’s current and most recent projects include the $42 million, eight-story The Clark rental apartment building at 310 Clarkson Avenue and the $70 million The Lois apartment development at 350 Clarkson Avenue, both in Brooklyn, NY; the $20 million Elmsford Apartments complex in Elmsford, NY; the $19 million, four-story Amber Court senior living community in Nesconset, NY; the $18 million, 80,000-square foot Belair Medical Center in Bellmore, NY; and the 9,000-square foot, three story Harmony Early Learning Center in Levittown, NY. The post $54M Braemar luxury senior residence breaks ground in Montebello, NY appeared first on Real Estate Weekly......»»

Category: realestateSource: realestateweeklyJan 9th, 2023

Futures Rise On China Reopening, End Of Tech Crackdown As Asia Enters Bull Market

Futures Rise On China Reopening, End Of Tech Crackdown As Asia Enters Bull Market Futures extended their Friday post payrolls gain on the back of Chine reopening optimism coupled with speculation that China's tech crackdown is finally ending - just as we speculated this weekend when reporting on Jack Ma's ceding control of Ant Financial. S&P futures rose 0.4% as of 7:30 am ET while Nasdaq contracts 100 added 0.5%. And while European stocks were mostly in the green, the bulk of overnight action was in Asia where the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 3.2% Monday, led by Alibaba Group after a top central bank official said the clampdown on the Internet sector was drawing to a close. The broader market also advanced, with a gauge of Chinese equities listed in Hong Kong rising 2%, helping push the MSCI Asia Index up 20% from its October low, setting it up for a bull market. The dollar weakened to a seven month low and oil rallied. Among premarket movers, Bed Bath & Beyond shares surged as much as 75%, set to rally after losing nearly half of their value in the previous week on bankruptcy worries amid mounting losses, and ahead of the company’s earnings due Tuesday. Coinbase and Riot Platforms led cryptocurrency-exposed stocks higher in premarket trading as Bitcoin rallied to extend gains for a sixth consecutive session — its longest streak in nearly a year. Lululemon dropped after the athletic apparel maker forecast a weaker gross margin. Here are other notable premarket movers: Oracle is upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Sandler as its cloud transformation takes hold. The brokerage also noted that fiscal 2024 might be a watershed year for the software company, where growth in operating profits and earnings per share could accelerate to more than 10%. Oracle shares are up 1.3%. Piper Sandler upgrades Uber to overweight and cuts DoorDash to underweight, recommending a pair-trade between the two as it favors ride-hailing over delivery in 2023. Elsewhere, Jefferies starts DoorDash with an underperform rating, with a buy on Uber. Uber shares rose 2.3%. Dash shares down 4.2%. Ally Financial upgraded to neutral from underweight at Piper Sandler, with headwinds seen as now priced into the stock. Shares rise 1.9%. Credit Suisse says fertilizer prices are on a downward trajectory in a note double-downgrading Mosaic (MOS) to underperform. Shares fall 1.1%. Elf Beauty is downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies, with broker saying risk-reward is balanced for the cosmetics company against an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. Shares fall 1.1%. Ipsen shares drop after it agreed to acquire Albireo for $42/share in cash plus a contingent value right (CVR) of $10/share related to the U.S. FDA approval of Bylvay in biliary atresia. Albireo shares soar 93%. Jefferies sees another year of uncertainty ahead for US bank stocks, in a note upgrading its ratings on Truist (TFC) and First Republic (FRC) and downgrading both Signature Bank (SBNY) and Regions Financial (RF). TFC falls 0.09%. FRC rises 1.2%. SBNY shares fall 0.4%. RF falls 1%. KeyBanc trims its natural gas price estimates for 2023 following a relatively mild winter to date and cuts its ratings on Comstock Resources (CRK) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD). CRK shares rise 0.8%. PXD rises 1%. There is a strong industry backdrop for Harmonic (HLIT), with greater competition in the broadband service market pushing cable multiple-system operators (MSOs) to invest aggressively, Jefferies writes in note that upgrades the stock to buy. Shares rise 1.8%. Lanvin Group is rated neutral at Citi, which initiated coverage on the stock noting that the luxury fashion group has solid brands but clear evidence of a turnaround is required to merit a buy call. Shares rise 3.5%. Markets closed last week solidly in the green, encouraged by Friday's jobs report which showed wage growth slowing, lifting the S&P 500 2.3% to notch its first winning week in over a month. They face another test on Thursday with CPI data that will likely help determine the size of the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate increase. After the easing in wage inflation, swaps contracts showed investors expect the policy rate to peak at under 5% this cycle, down from 5.06% just before Friday’s jobs report. While traders remain divided about the size of February’s hike, with 32 basis points of tightening priced in, it appears that a quarter-point move is seen as more likely than a half-point increase. While pressure on the Fed to hike by 50 basis points on Feb. 1 has eased, “policy makers appear to be increasingly frustrated by market-pricing at odds with Fed signaling in terms of both the terminal funds rate and timing of initial rate cut,” BNP Paribas economists led by Carl Riccadonna wrote in a note to clients. “This could tilt their bias toward a more forceful response at the next meeting.” And while market pessimism is still dominant, analysts at Wells Fargo said Friday’s gains may be more durable than some expect, being “driven by a pro-cyclical post-jobs report reaction — not by risk/short-covering.” This market action “probably creates some positive investor sentiment since long-only’s are making money and short-sellers are faring better than one might expect.” On the other hand, Morgan Stanley strategists said US equities face much sharper declines than many pessimists expect with the specter of recession likely to compound their biggest annual slump since the global financial crisis. The bank's equity strategist, Michael Wilson, long one of the most vocal bears on US stocks, said while investors are generally pessimistic about the outlook for economic growth, corporate profit estimates are still too high and the equity risk premium is at its lowest since the run-up to 2008. That suggests the S&P 500 could fall much lower than the 3,500 to 3,600 points the market is currently estimating in the event of a mild recession, he said. At the same time, US stocks have been lagging the rebound in European, Asian and emerging-market peers as American equities trade at a hefty valuation premium. European markets also started the week amid a generally buoyant mood, as continental bourses opened higher, after posting the best week since March on optimism about China’s reopening, an easing energy crisis and signs of cooling inflation. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index climbed 0.5%, touching the highest since mid-December with construction, technology and energy leading gains amid optimism over China’s demand for raw materials.  On the data front, euro zone unemployment was unchanged in November at 6.5% as expected. Here are some of Europe's biggest movers: UCB gains as much as 4.9%, the most in almost 11 months, after the Belgian biopharma company said its 2022 results should come in toward the high end of guidance Geberit shares climb as much as 3.5% after Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation on the Swiss manufacturer to neutral from sell, citing reduced risk related to energy prices BioArctic rises as much as 29% after Eisai and Biogen’s Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi (lecanemab-irmb) received accelerated approval from the FDA. The treatment originates from BioArctic TGS gains as much as 15%, the most intraday since 2020, after a 4Q update that DNB said showed a strong beat on late sales and supportive management comments on order inflow SAES Getters shares surge as much as 36%, the most on record, after SAES Group entered an agreement with Resonetics to sell its Nitinol production business for about $900m in cash AstraZeneca falls after agreeing to buy US biotech CinCor Pharma for as much as $1.8 billion. Analysts say the acquisition is a good fit for the firm’s existing cardiovascular franchise Fresnillo falls as much as 2.5% as RBC Capital Markets downgrades stock to sector perform, as it sees operational momentum widely priced in and expects limited growth in the pipeline Frontier Developments shares fall as much as 42%, its biggest intraday decline on record, after the video-game firm said it no longer expects to meet FY23 consensus expectations Ambea drops as much as 6.9%, the most since Dec. 23, after the Swedish elder care company saw its target price cut at DNB to SEK52 from SEK73 on continued headwinds due to inflation Devolver Digital shares fall as much as 9.5%, dropping to a record low, after downgrading profit expectations for FY22 in a trading update. Goodbody called the update “disappointing.” Earlier in the session, Asia’s benchmark stock index was on track to enter a bull market, as China’s reopening and a weakening dollar lure investors back to the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.9% on Monday, taking its advance from an Oct. 24 low to more than 20%. The Asian benchmark is up 3.7% so far in 2023, beating the S&P 500 Index by about two percentage points. That’s after they both slumped about 19% last year, their worst performance since 2008. Gauges in Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea led gains in the session, while Japan was closed for a holiday. Strategists have predicted a better year for Asian equities after a dismal 2022, especially as stocks in China, which carry the second-highest weighting in the regional gauge after Japan, turned a corner in November following the nation’s shift away from stringent virus curbs. The bull market milestone comes after the MSCI Asia gauge tumbled nearly 40% from a peak in early 2021. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is on track to enter a bull market after surging more than 20% from its October low, boosted by Chinese stocks after the nation pivoted on its Covid strategy and offered more policy support for the economy.   “The rally has been fast and furious, so it is only natural to expect some profit-taking,” said Charu Chanana, senior strategist at Saxo Capital Markets Pte. “There are also some risks to keep a tap on, such as BOJ’s hawkish shift and company earnings. But that being said, there is still room for Asian markets to outperform global peers in 2023.” Australian stocks climbed for a fourth day as miners advanced. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.6% to close at 7,151.30, capping four consecutive days of advances. The winning streak is the benchmark’s longest since Nov. 25. The gauge followed Wall Street shares higher after US economic data boosted optimism for slower Fed rate hikes. Miners and energy shares contributed the most to the Australian index’s move. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.2% to 11,646.45. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to its lowest level since June as the dollar weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. It pared the drop in European hours. NOK, NZD are best performers among G10’s. The euro pared gains after rising to $1.07. Bunds and Italian bonds underperformed Treasuries, with the largest losses seen in the belly of curves, while money markets added to peak ECB rate wagers. Focus is also on the EU’s first bond sales of the year The pound advanced, while gilts bear flattened. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill comments are due later Norway’s krone and the Australian dollar led G-10 gains, with the latter climbing to $0.6947, its highest level in more than four months, supported by China’s reopening. AUD curve bull steepens with 3-year yield ~13bps lower Turkey’s lira weakened as investors weighed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s signal that general elections will be held in early May, a month earlier than scheduled In rates, Treasuries were pressured lower with losses led by long-end, continuing Friday’s post-payrolls steepening move amid wave of block trades. US yields are higher by as much as 4bp at long-end, steepening 5s30s, 2s10s spreads by around 2bp; 10-year around 3.595%, cheaper by 3.5bp on day but outperforming bunds in the sector by ~2.5bp.  Treasuries took their cue from wider bear-steepening move across core European rates following first EU bond sales of the year. Another heavy IG credit issuance slate is expected this week, which also includes December CPI data Thursday and Fed Chair Powell appearance Tuesday.   In commodities, crude futures advanced, pushing Brent up almost 3.5% to trade near $81.11. Spot gold rises roughly $8 to trade near $1,873/oz while base metals are in the green. In crypto, Bitcoin is firmer and has managed to surpass and gain a more convincing foothold above USD 17k, after fleeting breaches of the figure in recent sessions, with the 16th Dec USD 17524 peak into play The only event on today's quiet calendar is the consumer credit print at 3pm ET. There are two Fed speakers on deck as well, Bostic and Daly, speaking shortly after noon. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,932.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 446.56 MXAP up 1.7% to 161.51 MXAPJ up 2.4% to 535.12 Nikkei up 0.6% to 25,973.85 Topix up 0.4% to 1,875.76 Hang Seng Index up 1.9% to 21,388.34 Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,176.08 Sensex up 1.4% to 60,752.44 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,151.33 Kospi up 2.6% to 2,350.19 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.27% Euro up 0.3% to $1.0677 Brent Futures up 3.0% to $80.90/bbl Brent Futures up 3.0% to $80.89/bbl Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,873.06 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.27% to 103.60 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Central banks aren’t giving up their inflation fight yet with the peak in interest rates still to come in most economies, but pauses will come at some point in 2023 — and perhaps even pivots The ECB predicts wage growth — a key indicator of where inflation is headed — will be “very strong” in the coming quarters, strengthening the case for more interest-rate hikes, the institution said Monday in an article to be published in its Economic Bulletin UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is set for talks with the union leaders directing the wave of strikes that have hobbled the UK since the start of the year, as the threat of more widespread action hangs over the country Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans to squeeze Europe by weaponizing energy look to be fizzling at least for now. Mild weather, a wider array of suppliers and efforts to reduce demand are helping, with gas reserves still nearly full and prices tumbling to pre- war levels The SNB expects an annual loss of about 132 billion francs ($143 billion), more than five times the previous record, it said Monday in preliminary results. The largest part of this, 131 billion francs, stems from collapsed valuations of its large pile of holdings in foreign currencies, accrued as a result of decade-long purchases to weaken the franc A ship has been refloated after running aground in the Suez Canal and briefly disrupting traffic in the waterway that’s vital for global trade Brazil’s capital was recovering early Monday from an insurrection by thousands of supporters of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro who stormed the country’s top government institutions, leaving a trail of destruction and testing the leadership of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva just a week after he took office Chinese officials are considering a record quota for special local government bonds this year and widening the budget deficit target as they ramp up support for the world’s second- largest economy, according to people familiar with the matter Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said careful explanation and communication with markets would be part of consideration on monetary policy, when asked about possible future changes in the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks gained with the MSCI Asia Pacific index on course to enter a bull market as the region took impetus from last Friday’s rally on Wall St. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in the commodity-related sectors and with sentiment also helped by China’s border reopening which JPMorgan predicts could boost Australia’s economy by nearly one percentage point over the next two years, although gains are capped following disappointing building approvals data. KOSPI outperformed with the index and shares in LG Electronics unfazed by the Co.’s softer preliminary Q4 earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were supported after China’s border reopening over the weekend added to the hopes of an economic recovery and with Alibaba shares spearheading the advances in Hong Kong after Jack Ma ceded control of affiliate Ant Group. Top Asian News Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed the importance of remaining committed to advancing reform, exploring new ground and carrying forward the fighting spirit, in a bid to modernize the work of judicial, procuratorial, and public security organs, according to China Economic Net. PBoC official Guo Shuqing said China’s growth will return to a normal path as China provides further support to households and companies to help recover following the end of the zero-Covid policy, according to People’s Daily. Tens of thousands of travellers began to fly in and out of mainland China on Sunday following the removal of nearly all of China’s border restrictions, according to WSJ. China’s health security administration said talks to include Pfizer’s (PFE) Paxlovid in the drug list for basic state health insurance failed due to the Co.’s high quotation for the antiviral medicine, according to Reuters. Six Chinese cities set GDP targets for this year ranging from 5.5%-7.0%, according to Securities Daily. Japanese PM Kishida said they must choose a successor to BoJ Governor Kuroda best suited for the post at the time when Kuroda’s term ends in April and must discuss with the next BoJ Governor the relationship between the government's and BoJ's policies. Kishida added that the government and BoJ must work closely together and each should play their own roles in achieving sustained price stability, while he noted that the government is ready to respond flexibly using reserves when asked if further steps could be taken to soften the blow on households from rising prices, according to Reuters. China reportedly considering a record special debt quota and a wider budget deficit, via Bloomberg; considering a deficit ratio of circa. 3% for the year. New special bond quota of up to CNY 3.8tln. European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, as the constructive APAC tone continues amid a limited European docket. Sectors are primarily in the green, with defensive names lagging somewhat in-fitting with the risk tone. US futures are in the green, ES +0.4%, in-fitting with the above sentiment ahead of Fed speak and a NY Fed Consumer Expectations survey. Apple's (AAPL) iPhone exports from India have doubled to a record USD 2.5bln, via Bloomberg. Top European News BoE’s Mann said energy price caps could be lifting inflation in other sectors by boosting consumer spending and noted it is unclear what would happen to inflation when caps are removed, according to Bloomberg. UK PM Sunak said inflation is not guaranteed to decline this year and that the government will need to be disciplined to ensure inflation is brought down, according to Reuters. In other news, PM Sunak said he was willing to discuss pay increases for nurses in an effort to end strikes as ministers prepare to meet union leaders on Monday, according to FT. Czech Central Bank Governor Michl said they expect a significant drop in inflation from spring and are ready to raise rates further if the baseline scenario of a decline in inflation does not materialise, while he added that policy will be strict until inflation begins declining, according to Reuters. FX   DXY continues to slip below the 104.00 mark between 103.860-420 parameters towards key technical support and its December low (103.380). Action which is benefitting peers across the board ex-JPY, which is suffering amid the easing in USTs/EGBs and a Japanese holiday, with USD/JPY above 132.50. Antipodeans are the current outperformers with AUD surpassing 0.69 and Kiwi eclipsing 0.64 vs USD, before waning slightly. EUR/USD hit, but failed to breach, 1.07 while Cable is off best but still above 1.21 in a 1.2089-1.2174 range. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8265 vs exp. 6.8276 (prev. 6.8912)   Fixed Income EGBs under pressure and continuing to retreat from Friday's best, with Bunds down by nearly 100 ticks and Gilts similarly dented though managing to retain 102.00 at present USTs are similarly softer, though have largely been consolidating towards the APAC trough given the absence of Japanese participants ahead of Fed speak and NY survey, with yields modestly firmer across the curve. Commodities Crude benchmarks are bid this morning, with WTI Feb and Brent Mar posting upside in excess of 3.0% or USD 2.0/bbl respectively. Action has been driven by China’s ongoing reopening and fresh geopolitical headlines, alongside other crude-specific developments (see below). Qatar set February marine crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 0.75/bbl and land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 2.10/bbl. In relevant news, Qatar Energy is to sign Ras Laffan Petrochemicals Complex agreements with the project to cost USD 6bln and it created a JV with Chevron Phillips Chemicals of which it owns 70% and Chevron (CVX) owns 30%, according to Reuters. Iraq’s Oil Minister said the Karbala oil refinery will begin commercial production in mid-March, according to Reuters. US DoE rejected the initial batch of bids from oil companies to resupply a small amount of oil to the SPR in February, according to Reuters. Colonial Pipeline said repairs at the Witt Booster Station were completed and Line 3 returned to normal operations as of 17:51 EST on Sunday, according to Reuters. China has issued a second batch of 2023 crude oil import quotas to independent refiners totalling 111.82mln/T, via Reuters citing sources. Iraq February Basrah medium crude OSP to Asia -USD 1.40/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average, via Somo; to Europe at -USD 8.95/bbl vs Dated Brent. Spot gold is fairly contained around the mid-point of USD 1864-1880/oz parameters, with the yellow metal deriving some upside from the DXY struggling to attain a positive foothold; next resistance mark is USD 1885/oz from the 9th of May. Geopolitics Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces were repelling Russian attacks on Bakhmut in eastern Donbas and were holding position in nearby Soledar under very difficult conditions, according to Reuters. Russia’s Defence Ministry said it struck a building in eastern Ukraine which killed more than 600 Ukrainian troops in retaliation for Ukraine’s deadly strike against a Russian barracks, although Ukrainian officials denied there were any casualties and said the strike by Russia only damaged civilian infrastructure, according to Reuters and ITV. Russia and Belarus will conduct joint air force drills on January 16th-February 1st, according to the Belarusian Defence Ministry cited by Reuters. Russian Kremlin has rejected suggestions from Ukraine that Russian official Kozak is sounding out officials in Europe about a potential peace deal. Swedish PM Kristersson said they have fulfilled commitments made to Turkey at the Madrid summit but noted that Turkey is demanding concessions that Stockholm cannot give to approve its application to join NATO, according to FT. China's military said it carried out combat drills around Taiwan on Sunday, while Taiwan's Defence Ministry stated 28 Chinese aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line and entered the air defence zone in the past 24 hours. Furthermore, Taiwan's presidential office said it condemns China's recent military drills around Taiwan and that Taiwan's position is very clear whereby it will not escalate conflict nor provoke disputes but added that it will firmly defend its sovereignty and national security, according to Reuters. Crypto Bitcoin is firmer and has managed to surpass and gain a more convincing foothold above USD 17k, after fleeting breaches of the figure in recent sessions, with the 16th Dec USD 17524 peak into play. Bafin warns of Godfather malware attack on banking/crypto apps. US Event Calendar 15:00: Nov. Consumer Credit, est. $25b, prior $27.1b Central bank Speakers 12:30: Fed’s Bostic Takes Part in Moderated Discussion 12:30: Fed’s Daly Interviewed in WSJ Live event DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I hope your Sunday was more peaceful than mine. I played my first round of golf since back surgery (don't tell my consultant) and got stuck at the golf course afterwards as there was a big police search with helicopters over the area I walk home across. My wife and kids were out in the garden at the time and had to rush in as the copter nearly landed in the adjoining field. So at least they knew I wasn't making up being delayed. Had it not been pouring with rain I would have had time for another 9 by the time I could make it home via a huge detour. To be fair for me there are worst places to be stuck but it was a touch concerning. That capped the end of a week where if you thought 2023 might start calmer than 2022 then you may have wanted to think again as there was plenty to debate and plenty of big swings in markets and data. In fact, after weak European headline inflation last week and a bad miss for the US Services ISM on Friday it was the best week for 10yr German bunds (-35.8bps) since data on Bloomberg starts around reunification in 1990. This week the main highlights are a speech from Powell in Sweden tomorrow morning, US and China CPI on Thursday, and Q4 US earnings season starting in earnest with 3 big financials on Friday. Before we go through things in more detail it's worth recapping Friday's US data which resulted in a major shift lower in yields. Payrolls were firm as expected with the headline at +223k and unemployment unexpectedly falling a tenth to 3.5%, the lowest since Neil Armstrong first walked on the moon. As our US economists discuss here though, there were signs of slowing growth in the report with, for example, hours worked (34.3hrs vs. 34.4hrs) and average hourly earnings (+0.3% vs. +0.4%) declining. These factors led US yields lower after the report but the Services ISM dropping from 56.5 to 49.6 was a bit of shocker, especially when the consensus was at 55. There’s a chance the exceptionally cold weather could have artificially depressed the survey but the associated commentary wasn’t great and new orders fells 10.8 points to 45.2 which outside the pandemic is the lowest since the GFC and levels only previously associated with recessions. 2 and 10yr yields fell -21bps and -16bps on the day but around 15-16bps of both moves came after the ISM which shows its impact. Ironically the S&P 500 climbed +2.28% on the day but c.1.75% of this was after this shocker of a print showing that the influence of rates on equities outweighed the economic concerns. Such an equity move couldn't possibly last if this ISM print heralded in a stream of recessionary data. It can only last if the data suggests an environment weak enough to merit the Fed pausing soon with the economy managing a soft landing. Remarkably European PMIs now stand near a record high relative to the US which is part of the reason for preferring European credit given it still trades wide to the US. A fuller review of the week for assets (a significant one to start the year) can be found at the end as usual. Let's move on to this week now and start with the US CPI print for December on Thursday which will be the pivotal data point in January. In terms of the MoM rate, the headline CPI is expected at -0.15% at DB (consensus 0.0% vs. +0.10% previously) with core CPI expected at +0.22% at DB (+0.3% consensus vs. +0.20% previously). In terms of YoY, headline is expected to drop from 7.1% to 6.3% at DB (6.5% consensus) with core falling from 6% to 5.6% (5.7% consensus). Another inflation-related data point will come from the University of Michigan survey on Friday, where the gauge of consumer inflation expectations will be in focus. Other US data releases will include consumer credit (DB forecast +$30.5B vs +$27.1 in October) today and the NFIB small business optimism index on Tuesday. Central bank speakers will also be in the spotlight with appearances from Fed Chair Powell and BoE Governor Bailey at the Riksbank's International Symposium on Central Bank Independence tomorrow. We will also hear from a number of other Fed and ECB speakers throughout the week (see day by day calendar for the list). In Europe, key data releases will include industrial production and trade data in Germany, France and the Eurozone. Over in the UK, all eyes will be on the monthly GDP report for November on Friday. Elsewhere, retail sales (Wednesday) figures will be published in Italy along with the unemployment rate (today) for November. Over in China, the CPI and the PPI on Thursday will be the standout. Turning to earnings now and some of the largest American banks including JPMorgan, Citi and BofA will kick off the earnings season on Friday. We will also hear from BlackRock and UnitedHealth that day. The day before all eyes will be on results from TSMC as concerns over supply-demand dynamics and US-China tensions continue to weigh on the sector, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index down -35% in 2022. Asian equity markets are continuing their buoyant start to the year overnight and carried on where Wall Street left off it on Friday night. As I type, the KOSPI (+2.33%) is the strongest performer across the region with the Hang Seng (+1.60%), the CSI (+0.67%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.54%) also edging higher amid receding risk-off sentiment after Hong Kong and China resumed quarantine-free travel over the weekend thereby marking the end of the Covid Zero policy. Elsewhere, markets in Japan are closed for a holiday. Futures on the S&P 500 (+0.36%), the NASDAQ 100 (+0.54%) and the DAX (+0.75%) are trading higher as well. Crude oil prices are also higher with Brent futures (+1.18%) at $79.50/bbl and WTI (+1.25%) at $74.69/bbl as we go to print. Early morning data showed that Australia’s building approvals (-9.0% m/m) dropped further in November compared to a downwardly revised -5.6% decline in October. In the US, the House Republican leadership standoff came to an end over the weekend after Republican Kevin McCarthy was elected as speaker after 14 failed attempts following days of gruelling negotiations. Recapping last week now, and markets put in a strong start to 2023 as signs of economic weakness and declining inflationary pressures raised hopes that central banks wouldn’t be as aggressive as feared on hiking rates. In particular, the aforementioned ISM services index on Friday created a major bond and equity rally to end the week. However ominously it means December was the first month since May 2020 that both the ISM US services and manufacturing components were in contractionary territory. On the back of ISM and payrolls, investors immediately moved to price in a less aggressive pace of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. For instance, futures pricing for the end-2023 rate came down by -10.3bps over the week (-19.0bps on Friday) to 4.48%. That was a big catalyst for risk assets, with the S&P 500 surging +2.28% on Friday, which brought the index back into positive territory for the week at +1.45%. It also led to a massive decline in Treasury yields, with the 10yr down -31.7bps over the week (-16.0bps Friday) to 3.558%. Over in Europe there was a similarly optimistic picture, aided by the news on Friday from the flash Euro Area CPI release. That showed headline inflation falling to +9.2% in December (vs. +9.5% expected), although core inflation did hit a record high of +5.2%. This backdrop meant equities and bonds surged across the continent, with the STOXX 600 up +4.60% (+1.16% Friday) to mark its strongest weekly performance since March. At the same time, 10yr bund yields fell -35.8bps (-10.5bps Friday), marking their largest weekly decline in records going back to German reunification in 1990. Let's see what week 2 of 2023 brings Tyler Durden Mon, 01/09/2023 - 08:05.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJan 9th, 2023

Dow soars 700 points after December jobs and services activity reports boost hopes for Fed rate cuts

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite swerved out of the red in the first weekly run for stocks in 2023. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 27, 2022 in New York City.Spencer Platt/Getty Images US stocks jumped Friday after December payrolls and services-sector data.  The economic data showed signs of easing inflation, bolstering hopes the Fed will cut interest rates this year.  The S&P 500 avoided a fifth consecutive weekly decline.  US stocks jumped Friday as investors embraced the December jobs report and services-sector data as signs the Federal Reserve could decide to start reducing interest rates after sharply tightening them to battle high inflation.The Labor Department said average hourly earnings rose 0.3% last month, less than the 0.4% consensus estimate from a Bloomberg survey of economists. Headline hiring of 223,000, however, was above the 200,000 consensus estimate.Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management's services-sector report showed prices paid decelerated while services activity shrank for the first time since May 2020.  "Investors appear to be in the mood for seeing the best in any situation," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG, in a note. The "general takeaway is weaker data will help to slow down the Fed earlier than expected, or perhaps bring forward the first cut in US rates."Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Friday:  S&P 500: 3,895.08, up 2.28%Dow Jones Industrial Average: 33,630.61, up 2.13% (700.53 points)Nasdaq Composite: 10,569.29, up 2.56%The daily gains allowed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite to notch their first weekly advance after four weeks of losses and after getting mauled by a bear market in 2022. Still, Beauchamp said, "US indices have rallied but have yet to break above recent resistance, suggesting this bounce has yet to really develop the necessary strength for a real rally." Here's what else is happening today:The parent company of crypto lender Genesis reportedly has closed its wealth management unit. Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman sees just a 5% chance the S&P 500 pares back the losses it's logged since March 2022. WWE shares soared following a surprise comeback announcement by former CEO Vince McMahon to the wrestling group.  In commodities, bonds, and crypto:West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $73.66 per barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell o.4% to $78.45.  Gold rose 1.7% to $1,872.40 per ounce. The 10-year Treasury yield sank 16 basis points to 3.55%.Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $16,917.11.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytJan 6th, 2023

US stocks rise after mixed December jobs report but weekly losses remain in sight

Wages easing in December and the unemployment rate falling will grab the attention of equity market bulls, says one analyst. John Smith/VIEWpress/Getty Images US stocks rose Friday after a mixed December jobs report.  Headline hiring was stronger than expected at 223,000, but wages slowed by more than anticipated.  The S&P 500 was still at risk of stretching a weekly run of losses.  US stocks rose Friday after the government's jobs report for December showed wage growth for American workers slowed, with pay in focus as the Federal Reserve works to tamp down high inflation. The Labor Department said average hourly earnings rose 0.3% last month, less than the 0.4% consensus estimate from a Bloomberg survey of economists. Headline hiring of 223,000 was more robust than the 200,000 consensus estimate. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6%. While stocks advanced, the holiday-shortened week that kicked off trading in 2023 may still leave key equity gauges lower. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were looking at a fifth straight week of losses. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:  S&P 500: 3,834.60, up 0.70%Dow Jones Industrial Average: 33,212.01, up 0.86% (281.93 points)Nasdaq Composite: 10,355.04, up 0.48%"A lower unemployment rate and weaker average hourly earnings growth is certainly going to get equity market bulls' attention," Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, in a note."Yet, with the unemployment rate back to the historic low of 3.5%, how realistic is it to expect wage growth to move meaningfully lower? The Fed will likely be skeptical," Shah added. "And so, with the record low unemployment rate indicating that there is still so much work ahead of them, Fed policy rates are set to rise above 5% within just a few months and a hard landing looks to be the most likely outcome this year." Among individual stocks, Tesla fell after the electric vehicle maker cut its prices on its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in China.Here's what else is happening today:The parent company of crypto lender Genesis reportedly has closed its wealth management unit. Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman sees just a 5% chance the S&P 500 pares back the losses it's logged since March 2022. WWE shares soared following a surprise comeback announcement by former CEO Vince McMahon to the wrestling group.  In commodities, bonds, and crypto:West Texas Intermediate crude added on 1.5% at $74.78 per barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained 1.1% to $79.53.  Gold rose 0.7% to $1,853.10 per ounce. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 3.68%.Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $16,732.04.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 6th, 2023

Futures Flat Ahead Of Closely Watched Jobs Report

Futures Flat Ahead Of Closely Watched Jobs Report US equity futures struggled to maintain gains on Friday as traders awaited the December jobs report that will help chart the path forward for Fed monetary tightening. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 were unchanged at 7:15am ET, erasing earlier gains sparked by a report that China was planning to relax restrictions on developer borrowing, and dial its stringent “three red lines” policy that exacerbated one of the biggest real estate meltdowns in the country’s history. US equities dropped on Thursday as separate data showed the labor market remained strong. European markets were steady as data showed euro-area inflation returned to single digits for the first time since August. Treasury 10-year yields steadied after climbing for the first time this week on Thursday following comments from Fed officials, while a  measure of dollar strength climbed for a second day, as the yen fell to levels not seen in a week, after the Bank of Japan unveiled further unscheduled bond buying to control its yield curve. Among notable movers in premarket trading, Tesla tumbled as the electric-car maker made another round of price cuts on its Model 3 and Y electric vehicles in China. Bed Bath & Beyond dropped after the home furnishings retailer began preparing for a bankruptcy filing, also weighing on shares of other retail trader favorites. Here are other notable premarket movers: Apple is little changed as Morgan Stanley says the stock could fall further on worries over wilting demand and production snags. Alvotech & Teva Pharmaceuticals say the U.S.  Food and Drug Administration has accepted for review a Biologics License Application for AVT04, Alvotech’s proposed biosimilar to Stelara, which is prescribed to treat a variety of inflammatory conditions. Alvo shares gain 6.4%, Teva rises 0.4% in light trading. Atai Life Sciences (ATAI) says it may explore steps including strategic partnership options after its Phase 2a trial of PCN-101 (R-ketamine) for treatment-resistant depression missed its primary endpoint. Shares sink 45%. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) slumps 13% after the home furnishings retailer began preparing for a bankruptcy filing, also weighing on shares of other retail trader favorites. CytomX (CTMX) surges 64% as analysts raised their price targets on the biotech after reporting a research collaboration agreement with Moderna, which brokers said demonstrated the strength of CytomX’s platform. Separately, CytomX gave an update on a phase 2 study for its CX-2029 treatment, which brokers said was mixed. Fate Therapeutics (FATE) tumbles 53% after the biotech company terminated a collaboration deal with Janssen Biotech and said it would discontinue its FT596 product candidate. Several analysts slashed their share price targets, with Cantor Fitzgerald describing Fate’s moves as major setbacks. Graphite Bio Inc. (GRPH) plunges 50% as it pauses a study of its experimental gene therapy for sickle cell disease after the first patient had a serious adverse event, prompting at least two analysts to downgrade the stock. Molson Coors (TAP) upgraded to outperform at Cowen with the group seen on a strong footing for 2023, while peer Constellation Brands is cut to market perform on downtrading challenges. TAP gains 1.4% in light trading. Novocure (NVCR) shares fall 6.4% as Wells Fargo cuts the stock to equal- weight from overweight with its positive thesis on the oncology firm now played out. Sight Sciences Inc. (SGHT) shares are up 2.8% after Stifel upgraded the medical device company to buy from hold, seeing a positive near-term setup for the stock. Tesla (TSLA) shares fall 6% as the electric-car maker makes another round of price cuts on its Model 3 and Y electric vehicles in China. World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) shares rise 10% after controlling shareholder and former CEO Vince McMahon sought to return to the company and is proposing a possible sale of the business. Zynex (ZYXI) is upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Sandler, which notes strong execution from the medical device maker and sees room for possible multiple expansion. Shares gain 1.5%. After their worst annual drop since 2008 and a record underperformance against European stocks in the fourth quarter, US equities began the new year with further declines amid signals from the Fed that it remains staunchly hawkish until inflation cools further. The next clue will in today's December jobs report, with Bloomberg Economics expecting a more subdued increase in employment. Estimates for US nonfarm payroll numbers peg a decline in new jobs added, indicating a cooling in the labor market that would in turn reduce the need for higher interest rates. Median estimate for December nonfarm payrolls change is 202k (vs crowd-sourced whisper number 243k), while average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.4% vs 0.6% in November. However, private payrolls figures out on Thursday surpassed estimates and a surprise drop in new claims for unemployment benefits underscored a robust jobs market. Our full preview can be found here. “Investors are still highly sensitive to the direction of monetary policy and this has potential to cause fresh headwinds for valuations,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. Any indications of resilience in the labor market or stubborn inflation “are likely to send fresh jitters through stocks,” she said. The Fed has remained “extremely hawkish” to avoid unintentionally easing financial conditions, said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda. “But another strong jobs report today would further justify such a hawkish approach and perhaps send risk assets into a bit of a tailspin as the prospect of a higher terminal rate increases alongside recession risks,” he wrote in a note. Overnight, Citi strategists led by Robert Buckland cut US shares to underweight on the grounds that earnings expectations are still too optimistic. Meanwhile, the latest EPFR fund flows data showed investors continued to flock to cash and out of equities in the week through Jan. 4. Inflows into money market funds were at $112 billion for the week - the most since April 2020, when the pandemic was spreading globally - as equity fund outflows continued. Market pricing for US interest rates to peak in June rose to above 5% following comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who said the central bank still has “much work to do” to tame inflation. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who is no longer a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, said rates were approaching a sufficiently restrictive zone and that inflation expectations had retreated, offering investors some optimism. In Europe, energy and miners outperformed while financial services and autos lag. The Euro Stoxx 50 was steady with FTSE MIB outperforming peers, adding 0.4%. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Shell shares gain after the oil and gas group reported higher gas trading in 4Q, though analysts said its update looks “mixed.” Shares rise as much as 1.3%. Nel shares gain as much as 5.9% in Oslo after agreeing with HH2E for FEED (Front End Engineering and Design) study and Letter of Intent for two 60 MW electrolyser plants. Small-cap UK stock Nanoco rises a record 69% in London, after the company said it had settled its litigation with Samsung ahead of a trial that was due to start today. Shares in British shipping company Clarkson rise as much as 9.2%, with Liberum anticipating “strong” 2022 results that will be ahead of current market expectations, including at least £98m profit before tax. Standard Chartered shares fall as much as 2.8% after analysts said they consider a takeover of the London-listed lender as unlikely given the “deal complexity,” with JPMorgan analyst noting that such a transaction would require “a number of regulatory approvals.” Sodexo shares lost as much as 3% after the French catering and services group reported fiscal first- quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate but left limited upside after the stock rallied close to 50% in 2H 2022. Rentokil Initial shares drop as much as 5.2% after Exane BNP Paribas initiated coverage with a recommendation of underperform. Danone shares fall as much as 2.8% after Morgan Stanley makes a number of changes to its order of preference within the sector, including a lower rating on Diageo to equal- weight, Danone to underweight. Earlier in the session, Asia stocks rose in the first week of trading in 2023 amid optimism over China’s reopening and a potential bottoming out of earnings in the chip sector. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.8% Friday before paring gains to 0.1%, led by South Korea. Samsung’s worst profit fall in more than a decade cemented expectations of capex cuts and a price boost from reduced chip supplies, supporting sentiment for the sector. China’s CSI 300 Index rose for a fifth day while Hong Kong stocks retreated after a recent rally. The nation is set to reopen its borders to international travelers on Sunday. It’s also planning to relax restrictions on developer borrowing, dialing back the stringent “three red lines” policy that exacerbated its real estate meltdown. China’s Consumer Sentiment Rebounds as Economy Reopens: Chart The Asian stock benchmark is on track for its longest winning streak since September 2021. The gains came ahead of the US nonfarm payroll report due later Friday. Private payrolls data released Thursday surpassed estimates, underscoring a robust jobs market. “Even though the US Fed is expected to remain hawkish, the US economy is most likely to be resilient on the back of strong consumption,” said Daniel Yoo, head of global asset allocation at Yuanta Securities Korea. “This is a positive for Asian exporters in the medium to long term.” Japanese equities erased their morning losses to close higher, as the weakening yen boosted exporting companies.  The Topix Index rose 0.4% to 1,875.76 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 0.6% to 25,973.85. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 2.4% as analysts were positive on announcements at the Consumer Electronics Show on new products including its self-driving electric vehicle with Honda as well as PlayStation sales. Out of 2,162 stocks in the index, 1,273 rose and 768 fell, while 121 were unchanged. “The ADP jobs data exceeded market expectations, with investor worries that the Fed would continue to be hawkish, which strengthened the dollar and weakened the yen slightly in the foreign exchange market,” said Kiyoshi Ishigane chief fund manager at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management. “The slightly weaker yen has softened the downside from the fall in US stocks.” In FX, the dollar climbs 0.2% to session high ahead of the jobs report, pulling all G-10 FX lower. The yen was the biggest underperformer, falling to its lowest level against the dollar since Dec. 20, trading at ~134.26 per dollar. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%; for the week, the gauge is up 1.2% in what’s set to be its biggest rally since the week ended Sept. 23. The Yen extended losses after a Bloomberg report that Bank of Japan officials see little need to rush to make another adjustment to its yield-curve control policy. USD/JPY rose as much as 0.9% to 134.59; The move came as Japan reported that real earnings declined 3.8% in November from a year earlier, the most since May 2014. “Most significant and marginally yen-negative news out of Japan was the weaker-than-expected cash and real earnings data which serves to reinforce the notion that a formal YCC policy change is far from imminent,” said NAB’s Attrill. “We don’t expect one at least until 2H 2023.” EUR/USD fell as much as 0.2% to 1.0497 before paring part of that drop; Data showed that euro-area inflation returned to single digits for the first time since August. While the headline inflation figure fell to 9.2%, below economists’ 9.5% forecast, a measure that strips out energy and food edged up to a record 5.2% The Norwegian krone is set to be the biggest loser of the week vs. dollar, down 4.4%, its worst week since April In rates, this week’s sharp flattening move extends into early US session with long-end yields slightly richer on the day and front-end lagging, guided by wider bull-flattening move seen in the German curve following euro-zone CPI data. US yields are cheaper by up to 2bp across front-end and belly of the curve with 10-year trading around 3.725%, cheaper by 0.5bp vs Thursday’s close and lagging bunds by 3bp in the sector; bunds and UST 10-year yields are little changed, trading within Thursday’s range; comparable gilts yields underperform by about a basis point. In commodities, oil stabilized after a string of declines that wiped nearly 10% from the price of crude. WTI up 0.8% to below $75. Gold climbed after retreating Thursday from a six-month high reached earlier in the week. Spot gold rose ~$3 to near $1,836/oz. Most base metals trade in the green. Looking to the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the US jobs report for December. Otherwise in the US we’ll get the ISM services index for December and factory orders for November, whilst in Europe there’s the flash Euro Area CPI reading for December, along with German factory orders and retail sales for November. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bostic, Cook, Barkin and George, as well as the ECB’s Centeno and Lane. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 3,825.75 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 438.97 MXAP little changed at 157.70 MXAPJ little changed at 520.71 Nikkei up 0.6% to 25,973.85 Topix up 0.4% to 1,875.76 Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 20,991.64 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,157.64 Sensex down 0.8% to 59,867.28 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,109.59 Kospi up 1.1% to 2,289.97 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.31% Euro little changed at $1.0512 Brent Futures little changed at $78.70/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,835.99 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.34% to 105.40 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg China is planning to relax restrictions on developer borrowing, dialing back the stringent “three red lines” policy that exacerbated one of the biggest real-estate meltdowns in the country’s history The European Central Bank should complete its interest-rate increases “by the summer” and then be prepared to hold for a potentially sustained period to tame inflation that remains too high, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said Japanese workers’ real wages fell by the most in eight years, suggesting that there’s still some way to go before the central bank can achieve its wage-growth accompanied price goal. The Bank of Japan resumed additional bond buying operation after a new benchmark bond yield touched its 0.5% ceiling Japan wants the Group of Seven advanced economies to take a coordinated approach this year aimed at preventing the “economic coercion” that China has applied to some of its trading partners Mexico’s Finance Ministry nominated Banxico adviser Omar Mejia Castelazo to the central bank’s board, an unexpected choice to replace its most dovish member Gerardo Esquivel China’s trade restrictions on Australian wine, lobsters and other commodities could be the next to ease amid a warming of diplomatic ties and expectations that Beijing will soon resume imports of coal The US House adjourned as Kevin McCarthy’s allies tried to strike a deal with members of the group who’ve blocked the California Republican from being elected speaker in a historic 11 rounds of voting A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly with cautious gains despite a negative lead from Wall Street, and ahead of the US labour market data. ASX 200 saw gains across the Metals, Mining and Resources names, but the upside was capped by the Healthcare and Tech sectors. Nikkei 225 briefly topped the 26k level whilst the banking sector underperformed after Thursday’s sectoral outperformance. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were firmer with the former initially bolstered by property names, with source reports from Bloomberg flagging further housing market easing measures, although the earlier gains faded throughout the session. Top Asian News BoJ reportedly sees little need to rush major yield adjustments, according to Bloomberg sources BoJ to conduct emergency bond buying for 5yr and 10yr maturities, according to Reuters. China could ease "three red lines" property rules in a major shift, according to Bloomberg sources. It will allow some property firms to add more leverage, and it pushes back the grace period for meeting debt targets, whilst deadlines may be extended by at least six months. PBoC drained a net CNY 1.6tln for the week via OMO - the largest weekly net cash withdrawal on record, according to Reuters. PBoC injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.00%; daily net drain CNY 384bln Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Prelim Q4 (KRW): Revenue 70tln (exp. 71tln), Operating Profit 4.3tln (exp. 5.9tln, BBG exp. 6.65tln); Memory chip demand fell more than expected in Q4 amid clients' concerns on consumer sentiment. Smartphone sales fell in Q4 due to demand weakness from macro issues. Price of memory chips fell continuously in Q4 due to chipmakers' increased inventory, according to Reuters. China has released the 10th edition of COVID prevention and control protocols, will further optimise clinical catergorisation and treatment method. Adds positive antigen tests as a diagnostic standard. Evergrande (3333 HK) to hold a meeting with offshore bondholders on Wednesday, to discuss debt restructuring proposals, via Reuters citing sources. European bourses are little changed overall but do feature a slim positive skew, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, pre-NFP. US futures are similarly contained with modest divergence around the unchanged mark, ES +0.1%, with attention on the NFP print, subsequent ISM Services PMI and Fed speak thereafter. Tesla (TSLA) to cut Model 3 & Y prices in China, Japan and South Korea according to reports. Subsequent Reuters sources state price cuts outside of China are being done with a view to support plant output. Citi (C) equity updates: cuts US to Underweight, raises continental-Europe to Overweight, raises Australia to Neutral. Top European News German Chancellor Scholz to invite the auto industry for talks on Tuesday, to discuss supply chains, mobility and climate. Lufthansa to Revive Aging A340s Amid Dearth of First Class Seats UK House Prices May Decline by 8% This Year, Halifax Says German Factory Orders Plummet as Manufacturers Under Siege Stellantis May Shut More Plants as Electrification Costs Bite FX DXY maintains its recovery momentum ahead of the US agenda with the index up to a 105.52 peak at best. Though, it has slipped a touch from this in wake of hotter-than-expected core EZ inflation, sending EUR/USD more comfortably above 1.05, though shy of initial best levels. JPY has taken the brunt of the USD's resurgence amid reports that the BoJ sees little need for further hasty YCC tweaks, with USD/JPY surpassing 134.50. More broadly, peers are down across the board vs the USD, though to varying degrees with the overall tone somewhat tentative pre-NFP. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8912 vs exp. 6.8914 (prev. 6.8926) Fixed Income Bunds experienced modest but ultimately fleeting downside in wake of the hot core/super-core EZ inflation print, sending the German benchmark to a 135.74 low. Albeit, the move pared back in short order with EGBs and USTs lower to the tune of around 10/15 and 5 ticks respectively ahead of the PM agenda. Australian government cuts FY22/23 bond issuance by AUD 10bln vs original plans, according to reports. Commodities Crude benchmarks are firmer, but have been subject to two-way price action throughout the morning which has been directionally in-fitting with but slightly more pronounced than equity action. Currently, WTI Feb’23 and Brent Mar’23 are posting gains just shy of 1.0% as the upside stalled a touch around USD 0.30/bbl shy of the USD 75/bbl and USD 80/bbl handles respectively. China Energy has reportedly placed an order for Australian coal - among the first deals since the 2020 unofficial ban, according to Reuters sources. Spot gold is modestly firmer though is yet to recoup all of the marked downside seen in yesterday’s session, which saw the yellow metal surrender the USD 1850/oz handle. Geopolitics US and Japan to hold security talks in Washington on January 11th, according to Bloomberg. Russian State TV says the ceasefire has come into force along the entire front in Ukraine; in-fitting with the order from President Putin. Turkish Defence Minister says Greece is carrying out acts of incitement against us, and we did not get a positive response from them regarding the establishment of a dialogue, via AJ Breaking. US Event Calendar 08:30: Dec. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 202,000, prior 263,000 Change in Private Payrolls, est. 182,000, prior 221,000 Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 8,000, prior 14,000 Unemployment Rate, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7% Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.2%, prior 62.1% Underemployment Rate, prior 6.7% Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.4, prior 34.4 Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6% Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 5.0%, prior 5.1% 10:00: Nov. Factory Orders, est. -1.0%, prior 1.0% 10:00: Nov. Durable Goods Orders, est. -2.1%, prior -2.1%; Less Transportation, prior 0.2% Nov. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.1% Nov. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.2% Nov. Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.8% 10:00: Dec. ISM Services Index, est. 55.0, prior 56.5 Central Bank Speakers 11:15: Fed’s Cook Takes Part in Panel Discussion on Inflation 11:15: Fed’s Bostic and ECB’s Lane Discuss the Global Economic... 12:15: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on the Economic Outlook 13:00: Fed’s George Discusses the Economic Outlook 15:30: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Lessons From the Pandemic DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Following a strong start to 2023, markets finally fell back yesterday after strong US data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials led investors to price in more rate hikes over the months ahead. The initial catalyst came from the ADP’s report of private payrolls, which showed an unexpectedly strong gain in December of +235k (vs. +150k expected), whilst the previous month was also revised up to +182k (vs. +127k previously). Treasury yields began to rise immediately after that release, which was then followed up by the jobless claims data, which showed that initial claims had fallen to a 3-month low of just 204k in the last week of 2022 (vs. 225k expected). So further evidence pointing to a tight labour market, particularly when you consider the JOLTS report for November from the previous day. Claims likely showed some seasonal distortion but there is little doubting the still strong labour market. That focus on the labour market will continue today, since we’ll get the US jobs report for December at 13:30 London time. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for nonfarm payrolls to have grown by +175k in December, which should keep the unemployment rate steady at 3.7%. Keep an eye on average hourly earnings growth as well, particularly given the Fed’s focus on wage inflation. Our economists are expecting that to step down to +0.3%, having come in at a 10-month high of +0.6% last month. In the meantime, these signs of strength in the labour market data led investors to price in a more aggressive path of rate hikes from the Fed yesterday. For instance, the chances they’ll continue hiking by 50bps at the next meeting in February now stand at 44.2% according to futures, which is up from 32% the previous day. And looking further out, the terminal rate priced in for June hit a 6-week high of 5.03% (cycle high 5.146% - Nov 3rd), with the year-end rate for December also up +13.6 bps to 4.67%. Those views on the future policy path were given added support by the latest speakers from the FOMC. For instance, Kansas City Fed President George said that the Fed should keep rates above 5% into 2024, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that inflation was still “way too high”. St. Louis Fed President Bullard last night spoke a little more dovishly when he said that “the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive, but it is getting closer.” In a presentation, Bullard cited the recent FOMC dot plot showing the median projection of 5.1% as being adequately restrictive. Notwithstanding Bullard, the overall backdrop yesterday meant that the sovereign bond rally so far this year came to a halt, with yields on 10yr Treasuries up by +3.5bps to 3.718%. That was echoed in Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds (+4.4bps), OATs (+4.5bps) and BTPs (+5.4bps) all moved higher on the day as well. The moves were driven by higher real yields, with the US 10yr real yield up +1.0bps to 1.49%, whilst the German 10yr real yield was up +10.4bps. Yields on 10yr USTs are fairly stable in the Asian session as we go to press. For equities it was a similarly downbeat picture, with the S&P 500 (-1.16%) moving back into negative territory for 2023, with losses for both the NASDAQ (-1.47%) and the Dow Jones (-1.02%) as well. The main exception to that pattern were energy stocks (+1.99%), which were aided by the rebound in oil prices yesterday that saw WTI (+1.14%) back at $73.67/bbl. This morning, oil prices continue to build on their previous gains with Brent futures (+1.02%) trading just below $80/bbl and WTI (+1.06%) at $74.45/bbl. Otherwise it was a poor performance across the board however, and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.20%) lost ground for the first time this year, even as it continued its relative outperformance against the US indices with a c.5pp gap opening up in the first few days of the year. Asian stock markets are generally trading higher this morning, but Chinese related equities have gone from positive to slightly negative as I finish this off. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.42%) and the KOSPI (+0.66%) are losing a bit of momentum after a much more positive first half of the session. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are indicating a positive start with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.31%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.27%) edging higher ahead of the December jobs report, but again off their highs. Early morning data showed that real wages in Japan (-3.8% y/y) fell by the most in eight years and declined for the eighth consecutive month in November (v/s -2.8% expected). It followed the prior month’s revised drop of -2.9%. At the same time, cash earnings (+0.5% y/y) were also disappointing in November (v/s +1.7% expected) against a downwardly revised +1.4% rise in October. In addition, Japan’s services sector activity remained in expansion territory as the final au Jibun Bank services PMI advanced to 51.1 in December following a reading of 50.3 in November. For a third straight day, the US House of Representatives was not able to vote in a new speaker. GOP leader Kevin McCarthy was not able to get Republicans to coalesce around him through another 5 ballots yesterday, taking the overall failed ballot count to 11. This is now the most ballots it has taken in order to elect a new Speaker since 1860. McCarthy had reportedly offered the holdouts one of their bigger demands – allowing any single member to bring forward a motion to vote on ousting the speaker, currently it takes half of the chamber. It would still take 50% of the chamber to remove the speaker, but it raises the risks of disorder around important votes. There continues to be a group of 6 or so Republicans who have declared themselves “Never-Kevin”, which complicates matters as the Republican leader can only afford 5 defections. Some McCarthy supporters have acknowledged that this process could extend into the weekend or longer if the party must find a new consensus candidate. Otherwise on the geopolitical side, yesterday brought an announcement from Russia that there would be an unexpected ceasefire in Ukraine for 36 hours over today and tomorrow. The move coincides with Russian Orthodox Christmas and Putin asked Ukraine to reciprocate, but the request was rejected and Ukrainian presidential aide Mikhailo Podolyak said that Russia “must leave the occupied territories – only then will it have a “temporary truce”.” Finally on the data side, Italian CPI fell to +12.3% in December on the EU-harmonised measure, which was in line with expectations but down from +12.6% in November. That comes ahead of the flash CPI release for the entire Euro Area today, where economists are widely expecting the year-on-year measure will decline for a second consecutive month. To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the US jobs report for December. Otherwise in the US we’ll get the ISM services index for December and factory orders for November, whilst in Europe there’s the flash Euro Area CPI reading for December, along with German factory orders and retail sales for November. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bostic, Cook, Barkin and George, as well as the ECB’s Centeno and Lane. Tyler Durden Fri, 01/06/2023 - 08:02.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJan 6th, 2023