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Splunk shares are "significantly mispriced," says Jefferies

See the rest of the story here. Theflyonthewall.com provides the latest financial news as it breaks. Known as a leader in market intelligence, The Fl.....»»

Category: blogSource: theflyonthewallMay 26th, 2021

Here"s How Many Shares Big Tech CEOs Have Already Dumped This Year

Here's How Many Shares Big Tech CEOs Have Already Dumped This Year When CEOs of major companies are selling their shares, investors can’t help but notice. After all, as Visual Capitalist's Aran Ali notes, these decisions have a direct effect on the personal wealth of these insiders, which can say plenty about their convictions with respect to the future direction of the companies they run. Considering that Big Tech stocks are some of the most popular holdings in today’s portfolios, and are backed by a collective $5.3 trillion in institutional investment, how do the CEOs of these organizations rank by their insider selling? Breaking Down Insider Trading, by CEO Let’s dive into the insider trading activity of each Big Tech CEO: Jeff Bezos During the first half of 2021, Jeff Bezos sold 2 million shares of Amazon worth $6.6 billion. This activity was spread across 15 different transactions, representing an average of $440 million per transaction. Altogether, this ranks him first by CEO insider selling, by total dollar proceeds. Bezos’s time as CEO of Amazon came to an end shortly after the half way mark for the year. Mark Zuckerberg In second place is Mark Zuckerberg, who has been significantly busier selling than the rest. In the first half of 2021, he unloaded 7.1 million shares of Facebook onto the open market, worth $2.2 billion. What makes these transactions interesting is the sheer quantity of them, as he sold on 136 out of 180 days. On average, that’s $12 million worth of stock sold every day. Zuckerberg’s record year of selling in 2018 resulted in over $5 billion worth of stock sold, but over 90% of his net worth still remains in the company. Satya Nadella Next is Satya Nadella, who sold 278,694 shares of Microsoft, worth $234 million. Despite this, the Microsoft CEO still holds an estimated 1.6 million shares, which is the largest of any insider. Microsoft’s stock has been on a tear for a number of years now, and belongs to an elite trillion dollar club, which consists of only six public companies. Sundar Pichai Fourth on the list is Sundar Pichai who has been at the helm at Google for six years now. Since the start of 2021, he’s sold 27,000 shares through nine separate transactions, worth $62.5 million. However, Pichai still has an estimated 6,407 Class A and 114,861 Class C shares. Google is closing in on a $2 trillion valuation and is the best performing Big Tech stock, with shares rising 60% year-to-date. Their market share growth from U.S. ad revenues is a large contributing factor. Tim Cook Last, is Tim Cook, who just surpassed a decade as Apple CEO. During this time, shares have rallied over 1,000% and annual sales have gone from $100 billion to $347 billion. That said, Cook has sold 0 shares of Apple during the first half of 2021. That doesn’t mean he hasn’t sold shares elsewhere, though. Cook also sits on the board of directors for Nike, and has sold $6.9 million worth of shares this year. Measuring Insider Selling All things equal, it’s desirable for management to have skin in the game, and be invested alongside shareholders. It can also be seen as aligning long-term interests. A good measure of insider selling activity is in relation to the existing stake in the company. For example, selling $6.6 billion worth of shares may sound like a lot, but when there are 51.7 million Amazon shares remaining for Jeff Bezos, it actually represents a small portion and is probably not cause for panic. If, however, executives are disclosing large transactions relative to their total stakes, it might be worth digging deeper. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/24/2021 - 18:20.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 24th, 2021

Why Bitcoin-Related Stock Canaan Is Trading Lower Today

Canaan Inc. (NASDAQ: CAN) shares are trading significantly lower Friday amid a decrease in the price of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH). read more.....»»

Category: blogSource: benzingaSep 24th, 2021

Why Abercrombie (ANF) Might be Well Poised for a Surge

Abercrombie (ANF) shares have started gaining and might continue moving higher in the near term, as indicated by solid earnings estimate revisions. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) could be a solid addition to your portfolio given a notable revision in the company's earnings estimates. While the stock has been gaining lately, the trend might continue since its earnings outlook is still improving.The rising trend in estimate revisions, which is a result of growing analyst optimism on the earnings prospects of this teen clothing retailer, should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements. Our stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is principally built on this insight.The five-grade Zacks Rank system, which ranges from a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record of outperformance, with Zacks #1 Ranked stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 2008.For Abercrombie, there has been strong agreement among the covering analysts in raising earnings estimates, which has helped push consensus estimates considerably higher for the next quarter and full year.The chart below shows the evolution of forward 12-month Zacks Consensus EPS estimate:12 Month EPSCurrent-Quarter Estimate RevisionsThe company is expected to earn $0.64 per share for the current quarter, which represents a year-over-year change of -15.79%.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Abercrombie has increased 8.15% over the last 30 days, as four estimates have gone higher while two have gone lower.Current-Year Estimate RevisionsFor the full year, the company is expected to earn $4.40 per share, representing a year-over-year change of +702.74%.There has been an encouraging trend in estimate revisions for the current year as well. Over the past month, six estimates have moved up for Abercrombie versus no negative revisions. This has pushed the consensus estimate 26.39% higher.Favorable Zacks RankThanks to promising estimate revisions, Abercrombie currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). The Zacks Rank is a tried-and-tested rating tool that helps investors effectively harness the power of earnings estimate revisions and make the right investment decision. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Our research shows that stocks with Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) significantly outperform the S&P 500.Bottom LineInvestors have been betting on Abercrombie because of its solid estimate revisions, as evident from the stock's 11.6% gain over the past four weeks. As its earnings growth prospects might push the stock higher, you may consider adding it to your portfolio right away. Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

NIKE (NKE) Q1 Earnings Beat, Sales Miss on Supply Constraints

NIKE (NKE) reports mixed Q2 results on strong NIKE Direct revenues, improved traffic and robust digital momentum, offset by the global supply-chain woes, and factory closures in Vietnam and Indonesia. NIKE Inc. NKE posts mixed first-quarter fiscal 2022 results amid supply-chain disruptions. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while sales lagged estimates. However, revenues and earnings improved year over year on strong NIKE Direct revenues, led by the return of traffic to stores as well as continued digital momentum. Its product innovation, brand strength and scale of operations continued to drive digital sales growth.Shares of the company declined 3.9% after the close of the trading session on Sep 23. The negative investor sentiment can be attributed to the company’s commentary on its position amid supply-chain woes and the closure of factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, and the consequent lowering of the fiscal 2022 guidance.Overall, shares of this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company have gained 2.8% in the past three months compared with the industry’s 1.6% growth.NIKE, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise  NIKE, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | NIKE, Inc. QuoteQ1 HighlightsIn the reported quarter, the company’s earnings per share of $1.16 increased 22% from 95 cents reported in the year-ago quarter and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of $1.12.Revenues of the Swoosh brand owner grew 16% year over year to $12,248 million but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12,539.5 million. On a currency-neutral basis, revenues improved 12% year over year, driven by growth across all channels, led by growth at NIKE Direct.Sales at NIKE Direct were $4.7 billion, up 28% on a reported basis and 25% on a currency-neutral basis. The NIKE Direct business benefited from steady normalization of the owned retail business and continued momentum in the digital business. Revenues at owned stores improved 24%, which was above the pre-pandemic levels recorded in first-quarter fiscal 2020. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The company continued to witness robust revenue growth at the NIKE Brand’s Digital business despite the reopening of stores. Digital revenues for the NIKE Brand were up 29% year over year on a reported basis. On a constant-currency basis, Digital sales improved 25%, led by 43% growth in North America.However, Wholesale revenues increased 5%, owing to the impacts of lower availability inventory supplies, thanks to the worsening delays in transit.Operating SegmentsThe NIKE Brand Revenues were $11,640 million, up 16% year over year on a reported basis. Revenues for the brand increased 12% on a constant-dollar basis primarily due to the NIKE Direct business’ double-digit growth in North America, APLA and EMEA.Within the NIKE Brand, revenues in North America advanced 15% on both reported and currency-neutral basis to $4,879 million. This marked the fifth consecutive season of the incredible demand for NIKE products, fueled by the back-to-school sale and return of sports activity. North America revenues benefited from double-digit growth in the Performance business in the Fall season, led by running, fitness and basketball. This growth was also influenced by the Olympics fervor, the WNBA season and the NBA finals.Sales for the NIKE Direct business were up more than 45% in the region, accounting for 26% business share. Digital sales grew 40%, driven by market share growth on strong site traffic and repeated buying from members. Sales at NIKE-owned stores accelerated more than 50% due to the return of traffic to physical stores and enhanced experiences.However, the North America business witnessed headwinds from highly elevated in-transit inventory levels due to the deterioration of transit times in North America in the last reported quarter. The transit time has now almost doubled from the pre-pandemic levels, affecting product availability across the market and its ability to serve consumer demand, particularly in the Wholesale channel. NIKE-owned inventory rose 12% year over year. Closeout inventory levels declined in double-digits from the year-ago quarter.In EMEA, the company’s revenues rose 14% on a reported basis and 8% on a currency-neutral basis to $3,307 million. Growth was driven by the EURO this summer, with NIKE players scoring higher goals than all other brands combined. The company’s Mercurial boots accounted for more than half of these goals, resulting in higher demand for the Mercurial boot and replica jerseys during the tournament.The NIKE Direct business improved 10% on a currency-neutral basis, driven by growth at NIKE stores. Traffic at EMEA stores increased year over year in double-digits coupled with better-than-anticipated conversions. NIKE Digital was up 2%. Demand for full-priced products rose 30% from last year’s higher liquidation levels. NIKE-owned inventory fell 14% in EMEA, while closeout inventory declined in double-digits. The decline is attributed to the further deterioration of transit times in EMEA in the last 90 days, leading to higher in-transit inventory and affecting the product availability to meet demand.In Greater China, revenues increased 11% year over year on a reported basis and 1% on a currency-neutral basis in the fiscal fourth quarter to $1,982 million. Revenues improved in line with an expected recovery in the market. Retail sales in late July and August were impacted by regional closures and lower foot traffic due to COVID-19 infections in the region. Prior to late July, the company witnessed recovery in traffic at physical stores, with traffic levels coming close to the prior-year levels. NIKE Direct declined 3% in the fiscal first quarter partly due to the closure of NIKE-owned stores. NIKE Digital declined 6% compared with the higher liquidation in the prior year. This was partly negated by double-digit growth in full-price sales.In APLA, NIKE revenues advanced 33% on a reported basis and 31% on a currency-neutral basis to $1,465 million. Revenues were aided by growth across all regions, led by Japan, SOKO, Korea and Mexico, offset by muted growth in the Pacific and Southeast Asia, and India due to COVID restrictions. NIKE Digital rose more than 60% on a currency-neutral basis due to the expansion of the NIKE App.Revenues at the Converse brand improved 12% on a reported basis to $629 million. On a currency-neutral basis, revenues of the segment were up 7%, backed by strong Direct-to-consumer revenues in North America and Europe.Costs & MarginsThe gross profit advanced 20% year over year to $5,696 million, while the gross margin expanded 170 basis points (bps) to 46.5%. Gross margin growth can be attributed to improved NIKE Direct margins, driven by higher full-price sales mix and favorable currency rates, offset by escalated product costs, owing to increased ocean freight costs.Selling and administrative expenses rose 20% to $3,572 million, driven by higher operating overhead and demand-creating expenses. As a percentage of sales, SG&A expenses increased 110 bps to 29.2% from the prior-year quarter.Demand-creation expenses increased 36% year over year to $918 million, owing to the normalization of spending at brand campaigns as the market laps the last year’s closures due to COVID-19, along with sustained investments in digital marketing to facilitate the rising digital demand.Operating overhead expenses were up 15% to $2.7 billion on higher wage-related expenses, increased technology investments to support digital transformation, and NIKE Direct variable costs.Balance Sheet & Shareholder-Friendly MovesNIKE ended first-quarter fiscal 2022 with cash and short-term investments of $13,695 million, up $4.2 billion from the last year. These included strong free cash flow generation, partly offset by cash dividends and share repurchases. It had long-term debt (excluding current maturities) of $9,415 million and shareholders’ equity of $14,343 million as of the end of the fiscal first quarter. As of Aug 31, 2021, inventories of $6,699 million were almost flat with the prior-year levels.In first-quarter fiscal 2022, the company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders, including dividend payouts of $435 million and share repurchases of $742 million. It completed share repurchases of 4.8 million shares under its $15-million program approved in June 2018 in the reported quarter. As of Aug 31, it repurchased 54.8 million shares for $5.4 billion under the aforesaid program.OutlookNIKE expects the consumer demand to remain at all times, driven by its strong customer connections and brand momentum. However, it remains uncertain regarding the global supply-chain headwinds that are looming in the industry. The supply-chain disruptions have been challenging for manufacturers and has significantly hampered the mobility of products across the globe. The company previously anticipated the delays in transit times to continue throughout fiscal 2022. The company notes that the transit times in North America and Europe have further deteriorated in the fiscal first quarter due to port and rail congestions, and labor shortages.In another development, the company is witnessed the sudden closure of manufacturing units of its factory partners in Vietnam and Indonesia due to COVID-related government mandates. Although the company stated that Indonesia is fully operational now, it expects the footwear factories in Vietnam to remain closed. The reopening and ramping up of the factories to full scale is likely to take time.Consequently, the company has lowered its fiscal 2022 guidance to reflect the impacts of 10-weeks of lost production in Vietnam since mid-July and expectations of the elevated transit times to remain consistent with the current levels.For fiscal 2022, the company anticipates revenue growth in the mid-single digits compared with low-double-digit growth mentioned earlier. Lowered sales are expected to result solely from the aforementioned supply-chain congestions. The company expects revenue growth to be flat to down in low-single digits, particularly in second-quarter fiscal 2022, owing to the impacts of the lost production due to factory closures and delayed delivery times for the holiday and spring seasons. The company expects the lost weeks of production and the longer transit times to result in short-term inventory shortages in the market over the next few quarters.The company expects all of its geographic regions to be impacted by the difficult dynamics. However, some geographies in Asia, with less in-transit inventory at the end of the fiscal first quarter, are likely to witness uneven impacts in the second quarter.For the rest of fiscal 2022, the company anticipates the strong market demand to exceed the available supplies. Nonetheless, it remains optimistic of the inventory supply availability to improve going into fiscal 2023.The gross margin is now estimated to expand 125 bps in fiscal 2022, which is at the low-end of previously mentioned 125-150 bps growth. This growth is likely to be driven by the continued shift to the higher-margin NIKE Direct business, sustained strong full-priced sales and price increases in the second half. This is expected to be partly offset by 100 bps of incremental transportation, logistics and airfreight costs to move inventory in the current environment. The company now expects lower foreign currency tailwinds on gross margin in fiscal 2022, estimated at 60 bps.For the fiscal second quarter, it expects gross margin to expand at a lower rate than fiscal 2022 due to higher planned airfreight investments for the holiday season.The company expects SG&A growth in the mid-to-high teens for fiscal 2022. Earlier, it expected SG&A growth to slightly surpass revenue growth. The rise in SG&A expenses is likely to be driven by spends related to sporting events and investments against its largest opportunities. The effective tax rate is estimated to be in the mid-teens.Despite the near-term challenges, the company stated that it remains on track to reach its long-term financial targets for fiscal 2025 outlined in fourth-quarter fiscal 2021.3 Better-Ranked Stocks to WatchSteven Madden, Ltd. SHOO has a long-term earnings growth rate of 15%. It currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Carter’s, Inc. CRI has a long-term earnings growth rate of 21.1% and it flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 at present.Wolverine World Wide, Inc. WWW has a long-term earnings growth rate of 10%. The company currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report NIKE, Inc. (NKE): Free Stock Analysis Report Wolverine World Wide, Inc. (WWW): Free Stock Analysis Report Carters, Inc. (CRI): Free Stock Analysis Report Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

Nike: Even Supply Chain Havoc Has A Silver Lining

On Thursday, first-quarter results revealed that the global supply chain havoc has harmed Nike (NYSE: NKE) more than expected. Moreover, longer transit times, labor shortages, and prolonged factory closures due to lockdowns in Vietnam where the sneaker giant produces approximately half of its footwear and a third of its apparel forced Nike to lower its fiscal 2022 outlook. Upon the news, shares dropped more than 3% in extended trading. Fiscal First Quarter Figures Revenue amounted to $12.25 billion which is below the $12.46 billion that analysts expected but still above last year's $10.59 billion. However, earnings per share of $1.16 exceeded expectations of $1.11 as net income grew to $1.87 billion. Management concluded that without the supply chain issues, results would have been significantly better. China, one of the company's biggest revenue drivers over the past quarters, posted the smallest gain of all regions, rising 11%. North America's revenue rose 15% to $4.88 billion whereas digital sales rose 29% YoY. Issues Go Beyond Factory Shutdowns Once production resumes, the company is also facing shipping delays as transit times in North America are double compared ...Full story available on Benzinga.com.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaSep 24th, 2021

Ball Corp (BLL) to Build Can Plant in Nevada to Meet Demand

Ball Corp's (BLL) latest investment supports its focus on expanding the company's capacity to meet customers' surging demand for beverage cans. Ball Corporation BLL recently announced that it intends to build a new multi-line aluminum beverage-can packaging plant in North Las Vegas, NV, in an effort to boost its capacity to meet customers’ heightening demand for beverage cans. This plant is scheduled to commence production in the end of 2022. The company plans to invest roughly $290 million in this facility over several years. The plant will supply a variety of innovative can sizes to diverse beverage customers.Given its proximity to customer can-filling investments, rising beverage can packaging demand in the region, proper infrastructure and regional labor base, North Las Vegas is an appropriate choice. Once it gets fully operational, the new facility will likely add 180 jobs in the state.The can industry has been witnessing a rising demand for the past few years, as customers now prefer cans over plastic packaging owing to environmental concerns. Changing lifestyle choices, population growth and increasing disposable income have led to this shift. An estimated 75% of new beverage product launches are now in cans. These aluminum cans, bottles and cups are infinitely recyclable and economically valuable beverage packaging option, with an 82% recycling rate in the U.K. and 76% across Europe. On top of this, the COVID-19 pandemic provided a boost to the beverage can industry, as customers are opting to buy multiple packs of beverages and packaged products that can be consumed on-the-go. The global beverage-can industry is expected to grow by approximately 100 billion units by 2025. Of this, the company sees an opportunity to add as much as 45 billion units.To capitalize on this demand trend, Ball Corp has been investing significantly in projects across North America, South America and EMEA, which are expected to add at least 25 billion units of contracted beverage-can capacity by the end of 2023 (off a 2019 base of 100 billion units). The company has been witnessing stellar growth in its top and bottom lines for the past few quarters thanks to the solid global beverage-can demand. The company’s constant focus on rolling out new products and efforts to cut down costs will continue to aid its performance.The investments also align with Ball Corp’s “Drive for 10 vision”, which comprises five strategic levers that are key to growing its business and driving long-term growth. A key lever among these is to maximize the value of the existing businesses by improving efficiencies in its facilities and expanding production across the company’s global plant network to meet the current demand.The company maintains its expectation to deliver long-term diluted earnings per share growth of at least 10-15% and achieve EVA (economic value added) dollars growth of 4-8% per year in 2021 and beyond.Price PerformanceThe stock has gained 11.4% over the past six months, outperforming the industry’s growth of 8.8%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchZacks Rank & Stocks to ConsiderBall Corp currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).Better-ranked stocks in the Industrial Products sector include Encore Wire Corporation WIRE, Alcoa Corporation AA and Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. LECO, each carrying a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Encore Wire has a projected earnings growth rate of 332.6% for fiscal 2021. So far this year, the company’s shares have gained 45%.Alcoa has an estimated earnings growth rate of 573.2% for 2021. The company’s shares have rallied 108%, so far this year.Lincoln Electric has an expected earnings growth rate of 45.1% for 2021. The stock has appreciated 22%, year to date. Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Alcoa Corp. (AA): Free Stock Analysis Report Ball Corporation (BLL): Free Stock Analysis Report Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO): Free Stock Analysis Report Encore Wire Corporation (WIRE): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

Futures Slide Alongside Cryptocurrencies Amid China Crackdown

Futures Slide Alongside Cryptocurrencies Amid China Crackdown US futures and European stocks fell amid ongoing nerves over the Evergrande default, while cryptocurrency-linked stocks tumbled after the Chinese central bank said such transactions are illegal. Sovereign bond yields fluctuated after an earlier selloff fueled by the prospect of tighter monetary policy. At 745am ET, S&P 500 e-minis were down 19.5 points, or 0.43%, Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 88.75 points, or 0.58% and Dow e-minis were down 112 points, or 0.33%. In the biggest overnight news, Evergrande offshore creditors remain in limbo and still haven't received their coupon payment effectively starting the 30-day grace period, while also in China, the State Planner issued a notice on the crackdown of cryptocurrency mining, will strictly prohibit financing for new crypto mining projects and strengthen energy consumption controls of new crypto mining projects. Subsequently, the PBoC issued a notice to further prevent and dispose of the risks from speculating on cryptocurrencies, to strengthen monitoring of risks from crypto trading and such activities are illegal. The news sent the crypto space tumbling as much as 8% while cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slumped in U.S. premarket trading. Marathon Digital (MARA) drops 6.5%, Bit Digital (BTBT) declines 4.7%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT) -5.9%, Coinbase -2.8%. Big banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp slipped about 0.5%, while oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp were down 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in premarket trading.Mega-cap FAAMG tech giants fell between 0.5% and 0.6%. Nike shed 4.6% after the sportswear maker cut its fiscal 2022 sales expectations and warned of delays during the holiday shopping season. Several analysts lowered their price targets on the maker of sports apparel and sneakers after the company cut its FY revenue growth guidance to mid-single- digits. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Helbiz (HLBZ) falls 10% after the micromobility company filed with the SEC for the sale of as many as 11m shares by stockholders. Focus Universal (FCUV), an online marketing company that’s been a favorite of retail traders, surged 26% in premarket trading after the stock was cited on Stocktwits in recent days. Vail Resorts (MTN) falls 2.7% in postmarket trading after its full-year forecasts for Ebitda and net income missed at the midpoint. GlycoMimetics (GLYC) jumps 15% postmarket after announcing that efficacy and safety data from a Phase 1/2 study of uproleselan in patients with acute myeloid leukemia were published in the journal Blood on Sept. 16. VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) surges 30% after company says its HPP737 psoriasis treatment showed favorable safety and tolerability profile in a multiple ascending dose study. Fears about a sooner-than-expected tapering amid signs of stalling U.S. economic growth and concerns over a spillover from China Evergrande’s default had rattled investors in September, putting the benchmark S&P 500 index on course to snap a seven-month winning streak. Elaine Stokes, a portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., told Bloomberg Television, adding that “what they did is tell us that they feel really good about the economy.” While the bond selloff vindicated Treasury bears who argue yields are too low to reflect fundamentals, others see limits to how high they can go. “We’d expected bond yields to go higher, given the macro situation where growth is still very strong,” Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist with JPMorgan Asset Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “But we do stress that is a modest view, because we think that upside to yields is still limited from here given that central banks including the Fed are still buying bonds.” Still, Wall Street’s main indexes rallied in the past two session and are set for small weekly gains. European equities dipped at the open but trade off worst levels, with the Euro Stoxx 50 sliding as much as 1.1% before climbing off the lows. France's CAC underperformed at the margin. Retail, financial services are the weakest performers. EQT AB, Europe’s biggest listed private equity firm, fell as much as 8.1% after Sweden’s financial watchdog opened an investigation into suspected market abuse. Here are some of the other biggest European movers today: SMCP shares surge as much as 9.9%, advancing for a 9th session in 10, amid continued hopes the financial troubles of its top shareholder will ultimately lead to a sale TeamViewer climbs much as 4.2% after Bankhaus Metzler initiated coverage with a buy rating, citing the company’s above-market growth AstraZeneca gains as much as 3.6% after its Lynparza drug met the primary endpoint in a prostate cancer trial Darktrace drops as much as 9.2%, paring the stock’s rally over the past few weeks, as a technical pattern triggered a sell signal Adidas and Puma fall as much as 4% and 2.9%, respectively, after U.S. rival Nike’s “large cut” to FY sales guidance, which Jefferies said would “likely hurt” shares of European peers Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for a second day, led by rallies in Japan and Taiwan, following U.S. peers higher amid optimism over the Federal Reserve’s bullish economic outlook and fading concerns over widespread contagion from Evergrande. Stocks were muted in China and Hong Kong. India’s S&P BSE Sensex topped the 60,000 level for the first time on Friday on optimism that speedier vaccinations will improve demand for businesses in Asia’s third-largest economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%, with TSMC and Sony the biggest boosts. That trimmed the regional benchmark’s loss for the week to about 1%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.1%, reopening after a holiday, pushing its advance for September to 7.7%, the best among major global gauges. The Asian regional benchmark pared its gain as Hong Kong stocks fell sharply in late afternoon trading amid continued uncertainty, with Evergrande giving no sign of making an interest payment that was due Thursday. Among key upcoming events is the leadership election for Japan’s ruling party next week, which will likely determine the country’s next prime minister. “Investor concerns over the Evergrande issue have retreated a bit for now,” said Hajime Sakai, chief fund manager at Mito Securities Co. in Tokyo. “But investors will have to keep downside risk in the corner of their minds.” Indian stocks rose, pushing the Sensex above 60,000 for the first time ever. Key gauges fell in Singapore, Malaysia and Australia, while the Thai market was closed for a holiday. Treasuries are higher as U.S. trading day begins after rebounding from weekly lows reached during Asia session, adding to Thursday’s losses. The 10-year yield was down 1bp at ~1.42%, just above the 100-DMA breached on Thursday for the first time in three months; it climbed to 1.449% during Asia session, highest since July 6, and remains 5.2bp higher on the week, its fifth straight weekly increase. Several Fed speakers are slated, first since Wednesday’s FOMC commentary set forth a possible taper timeline.  Bunds and gilts recover off cheapest levels, curves bear steepening. USTs bull steepen, richening 1.5bps from the 10y point out. Peripheral spreads are wider. BTP spreads widen 2-3bps to Bunds. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed back from a one-week low as concern about possible contagion from Evergrande added to buying of the greenback based on the Federal Reserve tapering timeline signaled on Wednesday. NZD, AUD and CAD sit at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. ZAR and TRY are the weakest in EM FX. The pound fell after its rally on Thursday as investors looked ahead to BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s sPeech next week about a possible interest-rate hike. Traders are betting that in a contest to raise borrowing costs first, the Bank of England will be the runaway winner over the Federal Reserve. The New Zealand and Aussie dollars led declines among Group-of-10 peers. The euro was trading flat, with a week full of events failing “to generate any clear directional move,” said ING analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner. German IFO sentiment indeces will “provide extra indications about the area’s sentiment as  businesses faced a combination of delta variant concerns and lingering supply disruptions”. The Norwegian krone is the best performing currency among G10 peers this week, with Thursday’s announcement from the Norges Bank offering support In commodities, crude futures hold a narrow range up around best levels for the week. WTI stalls near $73.40, Brent near $77.50. Spot gold extends Asia’s gains, adding $12 on the session to trade near $1,755/oz. Base metals are mixed, LME nickel and aluminum drop ~1%, LME tin outperforms with a 2.8% rally. Bitcoin dips after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal. Looking to the day ahead now, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,423.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 464.18 German 10Y yield fell 8.5 bps to -0.236% Euro little changed at $1.1737 MXAP up 0.4% to 201.25 MXAPJ down 0.5% to 643.20 Nikkei up 2.1% to 30,248.81 Topix up 2.3% to 2,090.75 Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 24,192.16 Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,613.07 Sensex up 0.2% to 60,031.83 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,342.60 Kospi little changed at 3,125.24 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $77.57/bbl Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,755.38 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.14 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg China Evergrande Group’s unusual silence about a dollar-bond interest payment that was due Thursday has put a focus on what might happen during a 30-day grace period. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target is increasingly out of step with international counterparts and fails to account for structural changes in the country’s economy over the past 30 years, Westpac Banking Corp.’s Bill Evans said. With central banks from Washington to London this week signaling more alarm over faster inflation, the ultra-stimulative path of the euro zone and some of its neighbors appears lonelier than ever. China’s central bank continued to pump liquidity into the financial system on Friday as policy makers sought to avoid contagion stemming from China Evergrande Group spreading to domestic markets. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mixed with the region failing to fully sustain the impetus from the positive performance across global counterparts after the silence from Evergrande and lack of coupon payments for its offshore bonds, stirred uncertainty for the company. ASX 200 (-0.4%) was negative as underperformance in mining names and real estate overshadowed the advances in tech and resilience in financials from the higher yield environment. Nikkei 225 (+2.1%) was the biggest gainer overnight as it played catch up to the prior day’s recovery on return from the Autumnal Equinox holiday in Japan and with exporters cheering the recent risk-conducive currency flows, while KOSPI (-0.1%) was lacklustre amid the record daily COVID-19 infections and after North Korea deemed that it was premature to declare that the Korean War was over. Hang Seng (-1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) were indecisive after further liquidity efforts by the PBoC were offset by concerns surrounding Evergrande after the Co. failed to make coupon payments due yesterday for offshore bonds but has a 30-day grace period with the Co. remaining quiet on the issue. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower on spillover selling from global counterparts including the declines in T-notes as the US 10yr yield breached 1.40% for the first time since early-July with the pressure in bonds also stemming from across the Atlantic following a more hawkish BoE, while the presence of the BoJ in the market today for over JPY 1.3tln of government bonds with 1yr-10yr maturities did very little to spur prices. Top Asian News Rivals for Prime Minister Battle on Social Media: Japan Election Asian Stocks Rise for Second Day, Led by Gains in Japan, Taiwan Hong Kong Stocks Still Wagged by Evergrande Tail Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index Extends Decline to More Than 2% European equities (Stoxx 600 -0.9%) are trading on the back foot in the final trading session of the week amid further advances in global bond yields and a mixed APAC handover. Overnight, saw gains for the Nikkei 225 of 2.1% with the index aided by favourable currency flows, whilst Chinese markets lagged (Shanghai Comp. -0.8%, Hang Seng -1.6%) with further liquidity efforts by the PBoC offset by concerns surrounding Evergrande after the Co. failed to make coupon payments due yesterday for offshore bonds. As context, despite the losses in Europe today, the Stoxx 600 is still higher by some 1.2% on the week. Stateside, futures are also on a softer footing with the ES down by 0.4% ahead of a busy Fed speaker schedule. Back to Europe, sectors are lower across the board with Retail and Personal & Household Goods lagging peers. The former has been hampered by losses in Adidas (-3.0%) following after hours earnings from Nike (-4.2% pre-market) which saw the Co. cut its revenue guidance amid supply chain woes. AstraZeneca (+2.1%) sits at the top of the FTSE 100 after announcing that the Lynparza PROpel trial met its primary endpoint. Daimler’s (+0.1%) Mercedes-Benz has announced that it will take a 33% stake in a battery cell manufacturing JV with Total and Stellantis. EQT (-6.5%) sits at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the Swedish FSA announced it will open an investigation into the Co. Top European News EQT Investigated by Sweden’s FSA Over Suspected Market Abuse Gazprom Says Claims of Gas Under-supply to Europe Are ‘Absurd’ German Sept. Ifo Business Confidence 98.8; Est. 99 German Business Index at Five-Month Low in Pre-Election Verdict In FX, the rot seems to have stopped for the Buck in terms of its sharp and marked fall from grace amidst post-FOMC reflection and re-positioning in the financial markets on Thursday. Indeed, the Dollar index has regained some poise to hover above the 93.000 level having recoiled from 93.526 to 92.977 over the course of yesterday’s hectic session that saw the DXY register a marginal new w-t-d high and low at either end of the spectrum. Pre-weekend short covering and consolidation may be giving the Greenback a lift, while the risk backdrop is also less upbeat ahead of a raft of Fed speakers flanking US new home sales data. Elsewhere, the Euro remains relatively sidelined and contained against the Buck with little independent inspiration from the latest German Ifo survey as the business climate deteriorated broadly in line with consensus and current conditions were worse than forecast, but business expectations were better than anticipated. Hence, Eur/Usd is still stuck in a rut and only briefly/fractionally outside 1.1750-00 parameters for the entire week, thus far, as hefty option expiry interest continues to keep the headline pair in check. However, there is significantly less support or gravitational pull at the round number today compared to Thursday as ‘only’ 1.3 bn rolls off vs 4.1 bn, and any upside breach could be capped by 1.1 bn between 1.1765-85. CAD/NZD/AUD - Some payback for the non-US Dollars following their revival, with the Loonie waning from 1.2650+ peaks ahead of Canadian budget balances, though still underpinned by crude as WTI hovers around Usd 73.50/brl and not far from decent option expiries (from 1.2655-50 and 1.2625-30 in 1.4 bn each). Similarly, the Kiwi has faded after climbing to within single digits of 0.7100 in wake of NZ trade data overnight revealing a much wider deficit as exports slowed and imports rose, while the Aussie loses grip of the 0.7300 handle and skirts 1.1 bn option expiries at 0.7275. CHF/GBP/JPY - The Franc is fairly flat and restrained following a dovish SNB policy review that left in lagging somewhat yesterday, with Usd/Chf and Eur/Chf straddling 0.9250 and 1.0850 respectively, in contrast to Sterling that is paring some hawkish BoE momentum, as Cable retreats to retest bids circa 1.3700 and Eur/Gbp bounces from sub-0.8550. Elsewhere, the Yen has not been able to fend off further downside through 110.00 even though Japanese participants have returned to the fray after the Autumn Equinox holiday and reports suggest some COVID-19 restrictions may be lifted in 13 prefectures on a trial basis. SCANDI/EM/PM/CRYPTO - A slight change in the pecking order in Scandi-land as the Nok loses some post-Norges Bank hike impetus and the Sek unwinds a bit of its underperformance, but EM currencies are bearing the brunt of the aforementioned downturn in risk sentiment and firmer Usd, with the Zar hit harder than other as Gold is clings to Usd 1750/oz and Try down to deeper post-CBRT rate cut lows after mixed manufacturing sentiment and cap u readings. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being shackled by the latest Chinese crackdown on mining and efforts to limit risks from what it describes as unlawful speculative crypto currency trading. In commodities, WTI and Brent are set the conclude the week in the green with gains in excess of 2% for WTI at the time of writing; in-spite of the pressure seen in the complex on Monday and the first-half of Tuesday, where a sub USD 69.50/bbl low was printed. Fresh newsflow has, once again, been limited for the complex and continues to focus on the gas situation. More broadly, no update as of yet on the Evergrande interest payment and by all accounts we appear to have entered the 30-day grace period for this and, assuming catalysts remain slim, updates on this will may well dictate the state-of-play. Schedule wise, the session ahead eyes significant amounts of central bank commentary but from a crude perspective the weekly Baker Hughes rig count will draw attention. On the weather front, Storm Sam has been upgraded to a Hurricane and is expected to rapidly intensify but currently remains someway into the mid-Atlantic. Moving to metals, LME copper is pivoting the unchanged mark after a mixed APAC lead while attention is on Glencore’s CSA copper mine, which it has received an offer for; the site in 2020 produced circa. 46k/T of copper which is typically exported to Asia smelters. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are firmer but have been very contained and remain well-within overnight ranges thus far. Which sees the yellow metal holding just above the USD 1750/oz mark after a brief foray below the level after the US-close. US Event Calendar 10am: Aug. New Home Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0% 10am: Aug. New Home Sales, est. 715,000, prior 708,000 Central Bank Speakers 8:45am: Fed’s Mester Discusses the Economic Outlook 10am: Powell, Clarida and Bowman Host Fed Listens Event 10:05am: Fed’s George Discusses Economic Outlook 12pm: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Equitable Community Development DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap WFH today is a bonus as it’s time for the annual ritual at home where the latest, sleekest, shiniest iPhone model arrives in the post and i sheepishly try to justify to my wife when I get home why I need an incremental upgrade. This year to save me from the Spanish Inquisition I’m going to intercept the courier and keep quiet. Problem is that such speed at intercepting the delivery will be logistically challenging as I remain on crutches (5 weeks to go) and can’t grip properly with my left hand due to an ongoing trapped nerve. I’m very glad I’m not a racehorse. Although hopefully I can be put out to pasture in front of the Ryder Cup this weekend. The big news of the last 24 hours has been a galloping global yield rise worthy of the finest thoroughbred. A hawkish Fed meeting, with the dots increasing and the end of QE potentially accelerated, didn’t quite have the ability to move markets but the global dam finally broke yesterday with Norway being the highest profile developed country to raise rates this cycle (expected), but more importantly a Bank of England meeting that saw the market reappraise rate hikes. Looking at the specific moves, yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +13.0bps to 1.430% in their biggest daily increase since 25 February, as both higher real rates (+7.9bps) and inflation breakevens (+4.9bps) drove the advance. US 10yr yields had been trading in a c.10bp range for the last month before breaking out higher, though they have been trending higher since dropping as far as 1.17% back in early-August. US 30yr yields rose +13.2bps, which was the biggest one day move in long dated yields since March 17 2020, which was at the onset of the pandemic and just days after the Fed announced it would be starting the current round of QE. The large selloff in US bonds saw the yield curve steepen and the long-end give back roughly half of the FOMC flattening from the day before. The 5y30y curve steepened 3.4bps for a two day move of -3.3bps. However the 2y10y curve steepened +10.5bps, completely reversing the prior day’s flattening (-4.2bps) and leaving the spread at 116bp, the steepest level since first week of July. 10yr gilt yields saw nearly as strong a move (+10.8bps) with those on shorter-dated 2yr gilts (+10.7bps) hitting their highest level (0.386%) since the pandemic began.That came on the back of the BoE’s latest policy decision, which pointed in a hawkish direction, building on the comment in the August statement that “some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period is likely to be necessary” by saying that “some developments during the intervening period appear to have strengthened that case”. The statement pointed out that the rise in gas prices since August represented an upside risks to their inflation projections from next April, and the MPC’s vote also saw 2 members (up from 1 in August) vote to dial back QE. See DB’s Sanjay Raja’s revised rate hike forecasts here. We now expect a 15bps hike in February. The generalised move saw yields in other European countries rise as well, with those on 10yr bunds (+6.6bps), OATs (+6.5bps) and BTPs (+5.7bps) all seeing big moves higher with 10yr bunds seeing their biggest climb since late-February and back to early-July levels as -0.258%. The yield rise didn’t stop equity indices recovering further from Monday’s rout, with the S&P 500 up +1.21% as the index marked its best performance in over 2 months, and its best 2-day performance since May. Despite the mood at the end of the weekend, the S&P now starts Friday in positive territory for the week. The rally yesterday was led by cyclicals for a second straight day with higher commodity prices driving outsized gains for energy (+3.41%) and materials (+1.39%) stocks, and the aforementioned higher yields causing banks (+3.37%) and diversified financials (+2.35%) to outperform. The reopening trade was the other main beneficiary as airlines rose +2.99% and consumer services, which include hotel and cruiseline companies, gained +1.92%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.93%) witnessed a similarly strong performance, with index led by banks (+2.16%). As a testament to the breadth of yesterday’s rally, the travel and leisure sector (+0.04%) was the worst performing sector on this side of the Atlantic even while registering a small gain and lagging its US counterparts. Before we get onto some of yesterday’s other events, it’s worth noting that this is actually the last EMR before the German election on Sunday, which has long been signposted as one of the more interesting macro events on the 2021 calendar, the results of which will play a key role in not just domestic, but also EU policy. And with Chancellor Merkel stepping down after four terms in office, this means that the country will soon be under new management irrespective of who forms a government afterwards. It’s been a volatile campaign in many respects, with Chancellor Merkel’s CDU/CSU, the Greens and the centre-left SPD all having been in the lead at various points over the last six months. But for the last month Politico’s Poll of Polls has shown the SPD consistently ahead, with their tracker currently putting them on 25%, ahead of the CDU/CSU on 22% and the Greens on 16%. However the latest poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen yesterday suggested a tighter race with the SPD at 25, the CDU/CSU at 23% and the Greens at 16.5%. If the actual results are in line with the recent averages, it would certainly mark a sea change in German politics, as it would be the first time that the SPD have won the popular vote since the 2002 election. Furthermore, it would be the CDU/CSU’s worst ever result, and mark the first time in post-war Germany that the two main parties have failed to win a majority of the vote between them, which mirrors the erosion of the traditional big parties in the rest of continental Europe. For the Greens, 15% would be their best ever score, and exceed the 9% they got back in 2017 that left them in 6th place, but it would also be a disappointment relative to their high hopes back in the spring, when they were briefly polling in the mid-20s after Annalena Baerbock was selected as their Chancellor candidate. In terms of when to expect results, the polls close at 17:00 London time, with initial exit polls released immediately afterwards. However, unlike the UK, where a new majority government can immediately come to power the day after the election, the use of proportional representation in Germany means that it could potentially be weeks or months before a new government is formed. Indeed, after the last election in September 2017, it wasn’t until March 2018 that the new grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD took office, after attempts to reach a “Jamaica” coalition between the CDU/CSU, the FDP and the Greens was unsuccessful. In the meantime, the existing government will act as a caretaker administration. On the policy implications, it will of course depend on what sort of government is actually formed, but our research colleagues in Frankfurt have produced a comprehensive slidepack (link here) running through what the different parties want across a range of policies, and what the likely coalitions would mean for Germany. They also put out another note yesterday (link here) where they point out that there’s still much to play for, with the SPD’s lead inside the margin of error and with an unusually high share of yet undecided voters. Moving on to Asia and markets are mostly higher with the Nikkei (+2.04%), CSI (+0.53%) and India’s Nifty (+0.52%) up while the Hang Seng (-0.03%), Shanghai Comp (-0.07%) and Kospi (-0.10%) have all made small moves lower. Meanwhile, the Evergrande group missed its dollar bond coupon payment yesterday and so far there has been no communication from the group on this. They have a 30-day grace period to make the payment before any event of default can be declared. This follows instructions from China’s Financial regulators yesterday in which they urged the group to take all measures possible to avoid a near-term default on dollar bonds while focusing on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors. Yields on Australia and New Zealand’s 10y sovereign bonds are up +14.5bps and +11.3bps respectively this morning after yesterday’s move from their western counterparts. Yields on 10y USTs are also up a further +1.1bps to 1.443%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.04% while those on the Stoxx 50 are down -0.10%. In terms of overnight data, Japan’s August CPI printed at -0.4% yoy (vs. -0.3% yoy expected) while core was unchanged in line with expectations. We also received Japan’s flash PMIs with the services reading at 47.4 (vs. 42.9 last month) while the manufacturing reading came in at 51.2 (vs. 52.7 last month). In pandemic related news, Jiji reported that Japan is planning to conduct trials of easing Covid restrictions, with 13 prefectures indicating they’d like to participate. This is likely contributing to the outperformance of the Nikkei this morning. Back to yesterday now, and one of the main highlights came from the flash PMIs, which showed a continued deceleration in growth momentum across Europe and the US, and also underwhelmed relative to expectations. Running through the headline numbers, the Euro Area composite PMI fell to 56.1 (vs. 58.5 expected), which is the lowest figure since April, as both the manufacturing (58.7 vs 60.3 expected) and services (56.3 vs. 58.5 expected) came in beneath expectations. Over in the US, the composite PMI fell to 54.5 in its 4th consecutive decline, as the index hit its lowest level in a year, while the UK’s composite PMI at 54.1 (vs. 54.6 expected) was the lowest since February when the country was still in a nationwide lockdown. Risk assets seemed unperturbed by the readings, and commodities actually took another leg higher as they rebounded from their losses at the start of the week. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index rose +1.12% as Brent crude oil (+1.39%) closed at $77.25/bbl, which marked its highest closing level since late 2018, while WTI (+1.07%) rose to $73.30/bbl, so still a bit beneath its recent peak in July. However that is a decent rebound of roughly $11/bbl since its recent low just over a month ago. Elsewhere, gold (-1.44%) took a knock amidst the sharp move higher in yields, while European natural gas prices subsidised for a third day running, with futures now down -8.5% from their intraday peak on Tuesday, although they’re still up by +71.3% since the start of August. US negotiations regarding the upcoming funding bill and raising the debt ceiling are ongoing, with House Speaker Pelosi saying that the former, also called a continuing resolution, will pass “both houses by September 30,” and fund the government through the first part of the fiscal year, starting October 1. Treasury Secretary Yellen has said the US will likely breach the debt ceiling sometime in the next month if Congress does not increase the level, and because Republicans are unwilling to vote to raise the ceiling, Democrats will have to use the once-a-fiscal-year tool of budget reconciliation to do so. However Democrats, are also using that process for the $3.5 trillion dollar economic plan that makes up the bulk of the Biden agenda, and have not been able to get full party support yet. During a joint press conference with Speaker Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Schumer said that Democrats have a “framework” to pay for the Biden Economic agenda, which would imply that the broad outline of a deal was reached between the House, Senate and the White House. However, no specifics were mentioned yesterday. With Democrats looking to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill early next week, negotiations today and this weekend on the potential reconciliation package will be vital. Looking at yesterday’s other data, the weekly initial jobless claims from the US for the week through September 18 unexpectedly rose to 351k (vs. 320k expected), which is the second week running they’ve come in above expectations. Separately, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index fell to 0.29 in August (vs. 0.50 expected), and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index also fell more than expected to 22 in September (vs. 25 expected). To the day ahead now, and data highlights include the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany for September, along with Italian consumer confidence for September and US new home sales for August. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/24/2021 - 08:12.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 24th, 2021

Deere (DE) Gains From Farm Equipment Demand & Investment

Deere (DE) is well placed to benefit from robust farm equipment demand, driven by higher commodity prices, upbeat construction demand as well as focus on investment in precision farming technology. On Sep 22, we issued an updated research report on Deere & Company DE. The company will gain from higher agricultural commodity prices that will likely spur agricultural equipment demand in the near term. An improved scenario in the construction sector as well as focus on investments in precision agriculture will continue to aid growth.Higher Commodity Prices to Drive GrowthAccording to the USDA’s (U.S Department of Agriculture) farm income forecast, the net farm income is anticipated to increase 19.5% from 2020 to $113 billion in the current year — the highest level since 2013. This upbeat projection is primarily owing to the higher commodity prices on account of the tightening global stocks and strong import demand from China through the year. In inflation-adjusted 2021 dollars, the net farm income is forecast to increase 15.3% in the ongoing year. The increased commodity prices will drive farm income, encouraging farmers to boost spending on the new agricultural equipment and replace their aging fleets. This, in turn, will boost Deere's top line.The company expects to see solid double-digit growth in production rates for crop care products in fiscal 2022. While government support is expected to decrease this year, total crop cash receipts in the United States will likely be up 19.7% on higher commodity prices, primarily soybean and corn. The U.S customer sentiment has gone up over the last few quarters with elevated exports to China. Considering these factors, Deere projects the fiscal 2021 net income in the band of $5.7-$5.9 billion, up from the prior guidance of $5.3 billion to $5.7 billion.Upbeat Farm Equipment Sales Forecast Bodes WellFor the Agriculture & Turf segment, the company expects industry sales of large agricultural equipment in the United States and Canada to be up roughly 25% in fiscal 2021, and small agricultural and turf equipment to be up 10%. In Europe, the industry is projected to be up around 10-15% as higher commodity prices favored business conditions in the arable segment. In South America, the industry sales of tractors and combines are likely to go up 20%. Industry sales in Asia are forecast to be up significantly, driven primarily by a strong recovery in the Indian tractor market.Net sales for Deere’s Production and Precision Agriculture segment are anticipated to be up between 25% and 30% in fiscal 2021. The segment’s operating margin is estimated between 20% and 21%.The company has also been witnessing improvement in the Construction & Forestry segment. The North American construction equipment industry sales are expected to be up between 15% and 20%, while the sales of compact construction equipment are estimated to be up between 20% and 25%. The Forestry equipment sales are expected to be up 15%, as lumber demand remains robust.Sales for the Construction & Forestry segment are projected to be up 30% and the operating margin is likely to be 12% to 13% in fiscal 2021. The company is likely to benefit from growth in non-residential investment and a strong order activity from independent rental companies during the fiscal fourth quarter.Advanced Farming Technology to Spur GrowthDeere is well poised for growth over the long term, backed by steady investments in new products and geographies. Focus on launching innovative products equipped with advanced technologies and features, and investments in precision agriculture provide it a competitive edge. The company envisions to revolutionize agriculture with technology and make farming automated, easy to use and more precise across the production process. Farmers’ growing reliance on advanced technology to run their complex operations smoothly will continue to fuel Deere’s revenues.Share Price PerformanceDeere’s shares have gained 27.3% so far this year, outperforming the industry’s growth of 21.9%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchZacks Rank and Other Stocks to ConsiderDeere currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Other top-ranked stocks in the Industrial Products sector include Encore Wire Corporation WIRE, Alcoa Corporation AA and Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. LECO. While Encore Wire and Alcoa sport a Zacks Rank #1, Lincoln Electric carries a Zacks Rank #2, at present.Encore Wire has a projected earnings growth rate of 332.6% for fiscal 2021. So far this year, the company’s shares have gained 45%.Alcoa has an estimated earnings growth rate of 573.2% for 2021. The company’s shares have rallied 108%, so far this year.Lincoln Electric has an expected earnings growth rate of 45.1% for 2021. The stock has appreciated 22%, year to date. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Alcoa Corp. (AA): Free Stock Analysis Report Deere & Company (DE): Free Stock Analysis Report Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO): Free Stock Analysis Report Encore Wire Corporation (WIRE): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Make the Most of Soaring Natural Gas Prices with These 5 Plays

Soaring energy prices and cheap valuations make this group attractive. Natural gas prices have been rising this year. The reason, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is a warmer-than-usual summer that boosted electricity consumption for air conditioning, increased liquid natural gas (LNG) exports and flat production, which in combination led to a lower inventory build for the winter. The fact that hurricane Ida disrupted production in August also didn’t help.The other contributing factor was that natural gas prices typically rise in times of economic expansion, because of its use in the commercial sector, as well as processing in several industrial segments like chemicals, fertilizers, paper and glass. And we know how rapidly the economy has turned around.It’s now expected that prices will remain elevated through the winter because of the low inventories and increased demand from consumer, commercial and industrial users. And that is despite electric power consumption dropping an estimated 8.3% this year as the sector shifts some consumption to coal (the usual fallback when prices continue to rise). The electric power sector is the largest end-use case for natural gas, and it’s highly sensitive to prices. Less elastic demand comes from things like lease and plant fuel, pipeline and distribution use, and vehicle use and these segments are likely to see steady growth through 2022.The EIA estimates that despite increased production, natural gas inventories will be 5% below the 5-year average at the end of the 2021 injection season (October-end). Next year, demand from electricity suppliers will fall further, as additional clean energy sources come online.Important NumbersHenry Hub spot prices in August were $1.77 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) higher than in August 2020.U.S. consumption of natural gas will average 82.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2021, down 0.9% from 2020, remaining more or less steady at 82.6 Bcf/d in 2022.Residential and commercial natural gas consumption combined will rise by 1.2 Bcf/d, industrial consumption will rise by 0.6 Bcf/d and the electric power sector’s consumption will drop by 2.7 Bcf/d, or 8.3% in 2021.Dry natural gas production will average 92.7 Bcf/d in the U.S. during 2H21—up from 91.7 Bcf/d in 1H21—and then rise to 95.4 Bcf/d in 2022.U.S. natural gas inventories ended August 2021 at about 2.9 trillion cubic feet (Tcf); inventories will end the 2021 injection season (end of October) at almost 3.6 Tcf, which would be 5% below the five-year average.LNG ExportsSince the U.S. is more or less replete in natural gas resource, the domestic market is well-developed with consumption balancing production more often than not, leading to low and steady prices. But the last few years have seen increased recognition across the world of LNG as a clean fuel and countries like China have made it part of their clean energy strategy. The high demand in Europe and Asia has sent global prices soaring, which in turn has encouraged U.S. manufacturers to export. The expansion of the domestic LNG market is changing the operating dynamics with the potential for prices to rise and stay higher in the future (because of increased international demand).Most players are involved in both natural gas and crude operations, although there’s an increased focus on natural gas of late.Let’s consider a few cases-Cheniere Energy, Inc. LNGHouston, TX-based Cheniere Energy is primarily engaged in businesses related to liquefied natural gas (or LNG) through its two business segments: LNG terminal and LNG and natural gas marketing. The company, through its controlling interest in Cheniere Energy Partners L.P., owns and operates the Sabine Pass LNG terminal in Louisiana – North America’s first large-scale liquefied gas export facility. Furthermore, Cheniere Energy owns and operates the 94-mile Creole Trail Pipeline – an interconnect between the Sabine Pass receiving terminal and the downstream markets – through its subsidiary.Cheniere Energy intends to construct up to six trains at Sabine Pass with each train expected to have a capacity of about 4.5 million tons per annum. While Trains 1, 2, 3 and 4 are functional; Train 5 is undergoing commissioning. Train 6 is being commercialized and has secured the necessary regulatory approvals.Cheniere Energy Partners is also developing a liquefaction and export terminal in Corpus Christi, TX. Train 1 commissioning is complete, Train 2 is under construction and Train 3 is commercialised with necessary approvals in place. The facility came online in 2019. Cheniere Energy intends to develop seven midscale liquefaction trains adjacent to the Corpus Christi Liquefaction facility (CCL). The company has initiated the regulatory approval process. The total production capacities for these trains are expected to be approximately 9.5 Mtpa.Additionally, Cheniere Energy is involved in LNG and natural gas marketing activities through its subsidiary, Cheniere Marketing LLC.Global LNG demand is likely to continue growing for the next few years. Cheniere Energy, the U.S.’s only listed LNG export pure play, foresees the fundamentals of LNG to be favorable in the long run, considering the secular shift to the cleaner burning fuel for power generation worldwide and in the Asia-Pacific region in particular. While the increasing demand for gas in the European power sector will be a key factor driving near-term LNG supply, longer-term consumption is set to come from Asian importers like China, India, South Korea and Pakistan.Being in the expansion phase of a capital-intensive business isn’t easy and the company has acquired a significant amount of debt. At the same time, its long-term contracts ensure steady cash flow and provide excellent visibility into the future.It’s therefore particularly encouraging that Cheniere’s expected earnings growth of 976.5% this year and 119.7% next year are significantly higher than its expected revenue growth of 46.4% and 13.6%. After a correction 30 days ago, its estimates are again on the rise.The shares carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and at 16.1X P/E, they’re trading below their median level over the past year. Definitely worth considering.Range Resources Corp. RRCBased in Fort Worth, TX, Range Resources is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development and acquisition of oil and gas properties, primarily in the Appalachian Basin and North Louisiana. It is among the top 10 natural gas producers in the U.S. and is among the top NGL producers in the domestic market.The Appalachian Basin incorporates prolific acreages in Marcellus, Utica and Upper Devonian shale formations. In the Marcellus formation of the basin, it has a multi-decade inventory of premium drilling locations. Of the 3,100 undrilled wells in the region, 2,600 wells are liquids-rich and the rest have a natural gas predominance. Following the merger with Memorial Resource Development Corporation a few years back, Range Resources created a core acreage position in North Louisiana comprising 140,000 net acers with multiple formations of productive oil and natural gas.The company primarily sells its produced natural gas to midstream firms, utilities, marketing companies and industrial users. It also sells natural gas liquids (NGLs) and crude oil.As of Dec 31, 2020, total proved reserves were 17.2 trillion cubic feet equivalent (Tcfe), almost flat year over year. Around 95% of the company’s total proved reserves are located in the Marcellus region. Of the total proved reserves, roughly 57% was developed.Despite its considerable liquid resources, the company has been focusing on natural gas production because of growing global demand for clean energy. In 2020, its total production averaged 2.23 million cubic feet equivalent per day, of which 69.4% was natural gas. A similar trend is seen this year.Range Resources’ revenue is expected to grow 38.9% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022. Earnings are expected to increase 2000% and 45.5%, respectively in the two years. Estimates for both years have been rising steadily: the 2021 estimate increased 47.4% in the last 90 days while the 2022 estimate increased 93.0%.The shares carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). At 8.7X P/E, they’re trading below their median level over the past year, making them really cheap at these levels.Continental Resources, Inc. CLROklahoma City, OK-based Continental Resources is an explorer and producer of oil and natural gas. The company operates premium resources in the North Dakota Bakken and Montana Bakken (among the country’s largest onshore oilfields) in northern U.S., the SCOOP and STACK plays of Oklahoma in southern U.S. and undeveloped leasehold acreage in eastern U.S. It also has strategic water assets in Bakken and Oklahoma.Given its presence in prolific regions, the company expects oil equivalent production growth of 8-10% CAGR from 2019 to 2023 which is expected to translate to average annual free cash flow of $3.5-$4 billion over the five-year period.At the end of 2020, the company’s estimated proved reserves were 1,103.8 MMBoe. During 2020, the company produced 300,090 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d), lower than 340,395 Boe/d in the year-ago quarter. Of the total production, oil accounted for nearly 58.2%.The company’s 2021 revenue and earnings are currently expected to grow 101.9% and 436.8%, respectively. While analysts still expect 2022 growth to be negative, estimates for both years continue to increase substantially (from $2.35 to $3.94 in 2021 and from $1.97 to $3.68 in 2022). The stronger pricing this year is clearly driving the numbers.The shares of this Zacks Rank #1 company are currently trading at a P/S of 2.99X, which is between their median and high values over the past year, although much lower than the S&P 500. While not cheap, they can’t be considered expensive either.Goodrich Petroleum Corp. GDPHouston, Texas-based Goodrich Petroleum is an exploration and production company. It primarily holds interests in the Haynesville Shale Trend in northwest Louisiana and East Texas; Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Trend located in southwest Mississippi and southeast Louisiana; and the Eagle Ford Shale Trend in South Texas. The company owns interests in 189 producing oil and natural gas wells located in 37 fields in six states of the United States.As of December 31, 2020, it had estimated proved reserves of approximately 543 billion cubic feet equivalent, which included 540 billion cubic feet of natural gas and 0.5 million barrels of crude oil or other liquid hydrocarbons of oil and condensate.The company’s revenues are expected to grow 60.5% this year and another 22.4% in the next. Its earnings are expected to grow 1676.2% this year followed by 25.3% growth in the next. Estimates for both years are galloping ahead. In the past 90 days, they’ve gone from $2.17 to 3.73 for 2021 and from 2.74 to 4.67 for 2022.Shares of this Zacks Rank #1 stock currently trade at 4.9X P/E, which is below their median level over the past year, and of course much lower than the S&P. They’re a steal at these levels.Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas is an independent upstream operator engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids. Headquartered in Houston, TX, the firm is focused on the high-quality Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations in South Texas.In South Texas, Magnolia’s position consists of more than 460,000 net acres, of which around 23,500 net acres are located in the highly productive Karnes County and nearly 440,000 net acres in the re-emerging Giddings Field.At Dec 31, 2020, Magnolia's total estimated proved reserves were 49.3 million barrels ((MMBbls) of oil, 28.5 MMBbls of natural gas liquids (“NGL”) and 207.6 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas, totaling 112.3 million barrels of oil-equivalent (MMboe) — 69% liquids, 76% developed.The company focuses on growth through a combination of acquisitions and active drilling. Since its inception in 2018, Magnolia has spent around 60% of operating cash flow on capital expenditures, 26% on acquisitions, 8% on stock buybacks, while preserving the remaining 6% as cash. In particular, Magnolia is focused on returning significant cash to its shareholders: it aims to repurchase 1% of its total scrips outstanding each quarter and introduce a semi-annual cash dividend in 2021.Given the COVID-related disruption in 2020, it’s understandable that revenue and earnings are expected to jump 88.7% and 10050% this year. But the 6.7% revenue growth and flattish earnings slated for the following year are particularly encouraging.The Zacks Rank #1 shares are trading cheap at 8.23X earnings (below median level of 12.09X over the past year). One-Month Price PerformanceImage Source: Zacks Investment Research More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Range Resources Corporation (RRC): Free Stock Analysis Report Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG): Free Stock Analysis Report Continental Resources, Inc. (CLR): Free Stock Analysis Report Goodrich Petroleum Corporation (GDP): Free Stock Analysis Report Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Steven Madden (SHOO) Stock Outpaces Industry YTD: Here"s Why

Steven Madden's (SHOO) e-commerce business exhibits momentum. The company ramps up its digital marketing efforts and innovates capabilities to tap higher sales. Steven Madden, Ltd. SHOO is climbing up the charts, thanks to immense strength in its e-commerce wing and strategic ploys. The company’s commerce business is reflecting a sturdy momentum since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. Management also remains encouraged about its prudent buyouts. Its cost-containment efforts are also fruitful and aiding margins. Buoyed by such strengths, shares of this currently Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) player have increased 21.4% in the year-to-date period while its industry has rallied 12.9%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Delving DeeperSolid gains from increased investment in digital marketing and robust online capabilities, such as try before you buy, are steadily yielding results. Its constant efforts to optimize features and functionality of its website are also contributing. The company also significantly accelerated its digital commerce initiatives with respect to distribution. It added high level talent to the organization, ramped up digital marketing spend, improved data science capabilities, launched try-before-you-buy payment facility, rolled out buy online, pick-up in store across its entire U.S. full-price retail outlets, and introduced advanced delivery and return options.The e-commerce momentum continued in the second quarter of 2021 with revenues surging 105% including a 119%-increase in Steve Madden’s e-commerce business. Digital sales represented about 54% of the company’s total Retail segment sales in the quarter.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchSpeaking of its smart buyouts, Steven Madden is optimistic about the takeover of BB Dakota, a California-based women's apparel company through which the former is steadily expanding its apparel category. Its European joint venture (JV) is also noteworthy. This transaction distributes the company’s branded footwear and accessories across majority countries in Europe.Steven Madden formed this JV roughly five years ago, and the same registered solid double-digit percentage revenue growth each year with a 21% revenue increase in 2020. For 2021, management anticipated revenues from the European JV of about $55 million, more than 3/4 of which will be generated from digital channels. Also, the business is expected to generate a mid-teen operating profit margin before allocation of corporate overhead.Management remains focused on creating trendy products, deepening relations with customers via marketing, enhancing digital-commerce solutions and expanding in the international markets. Growth in the company’s brands and a robust business model position it well to cash in on the market-expansion opportunities and boost stakeholder value.More StrengthsStrong e-commerce momentum along with other aforementioned strategies will continue helping the company stay afloat on a tough operating landscape. Results are also benefiting from trend-right product assortments as well as an accelerated business recovery. Higher consumer demand and spending on fashion products are further adding up to the company’s performance. Brick-and-mortar business continues to be impressive on a steady recovery from the pandemic.For 2021, management projected revenue growth of 43-47% from the total revenues of $1,201.8 million reported in 2020. Adjusted earnings per share are likely to fall in the bracket of $2-$2.10. In 2020, the company reported adjusted earnings of 64 cents. Sturdy growth trends witnessed during the second quarter are likely to remain throughout 2021.In addition, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2021 sales and earnings is currently pegged at $1.76 billion and $2.10 per share, respectively. These estimates suggest corresponding growth of about 46% and 228% from the respective year-ago reported figures. An expected long-term earnings growth rate of 15% further exhibits strength. Considering all the aforesaid factors, Steven Madden is a solid investment bet now.Eye These Solid Picks TooRalph Lauren RL has a long-term earnings growth rate of 15% and a Zacks Rank #1, currently.GIII Apparel GIII currently has a Zacks Rank of 1 and a long-term earnings growth rate of 11.6%.Wolverine WWW has a long-term earnings growth rate of 10% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), presently. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL): Free Stock Analysis Report Wolverine World Wide, Inc. (WWW): Free Stock Analysis Report GIII Apparel Group, LTD. (GIII): Free Stock Analysis Report Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

AAR Reports First Quarter 2022 Results

First quarter sales of $455 million, up 14% over the prior year First quarter GAAP diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of $0.31 compared to a loss per share of $(0.40) in Q1 FY2021 Adjusted diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of $0.52, up 206% from $0.17 in Q1 FY2021 First quarter cash flow from operating activities from continuing operations of $18 million WOOD DALE, Ill., Sept. 23, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- AAR CORP. (NYSE:AIR) today reported first quarter Fiscal Year 2022 consolidated sales of $455.1 million and income from continuing operations of $11.2 million, or $0.31 per diluted share. For the first quarter of the prior year, the Company reported sales of $400.8 million and loss from continuing operations of $13.9 million, or $0.40 per diluted share. Our adjusted diluted earnings per share from continuing operations in the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2022 were $0.52 compared to $0.17 in the first quarter of the prior year. Current quarter results included net pretax adjustments of $9.9 million, or $0.21 per share, primarily due to a previously disclosed customer contract termination and related asset impairment charges. Consolidated first quarter sales increased 14% over the prior year quarter. Our consolidated sales to commercial customers increased 53% over the prior year quarter primarily due to the recovery in the commercial market from the impact of COVID-19. Our consolidated sales to government customers decreased 17% primarily related to timing as the prior year quarter included significant activity across both our U.S. Marine Corps C-40 and U.S. Air Force pallet contracts. On a sequential basis, consolidated first quarter sales increased 4% over the fourth quarter. Our consolidated sales to commercial customers increased 17% over the fourth quarter while consolidated sales to government customers decreased 10%. Sales to commercial customers were 59% of consolidated sales compared to 44% in the prior year's quarter reflecting the recovery in the commercial market from the impact of COVID-19. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, we announced several new contract awards including: Exclusive distribution agreement with Arkwin Industries covering its broad line of engine actuation and commercial aviation products, which complement our existing engine parts offerings Firm, fixed price contract from the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration for the conversion and delivery of a Boeing 737-700 aircraft Extension of our long-term, component support agreement with Volotea, a growing low-cost carrier in Spain, for its fleet of Airbus narrowbody aircraft utilizing our logistics centers in Europe "We had a very strong start to the year across our commercial business. We saw robust performance in our MRO operations and continued recovery in our parts activities. We also secured new government and commercial program contract awards while adding another exclusive new parts distribution agreement, which we expect to contribute to our long-term growth," said John M. Holmes, President and Chief Executive Officer of AAR CORP. Gross profit margins increased from 12.1% in the prior year quarter to 14.2% in the current quarter and adjusted gross profit margin increased from 13.0% to 16.1%, primarily due to the favorable impact from our actions to reduce costs and increase our operating efficiency. Expeditionary Services profitability increased significantly from 10.8% to 19.0% reflecting the sale of the Composites business in the prior year quarter and improved execution in the Mobility business. Selling, general and administrative expenses increased from $45.3 million to $49.3 million mainly due to restoration of temporary compensation reductions. Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percent of sales decreased from 11.3% to 10.8% due to the favorable impact from our cost reduction actions. Operating margin increased from 0.8% in the prior year quarter to 3.3% in the current quarter and adjusted operating margin increased from 2.5% to 5.5%, primarily due to the favorable impact from our actions to reduce costs and increase our operating efficiency. Sequentially, our adjusted operating margin increased from 5.2% in the fourth quarter to 5.5% in the current quarter. In conjunction with the U.S. exit from Afghanistan, we have concluded our activities in country under our WASS and U.S. Department of Defense contracts. The operations related to our activities in Afghanistan contributed revenue of $67 million in Fiscal 2021. Holmes continued, "I am extremely proud of our WASS team and their work in Afghanistan. Our team played a vital role in helping to evacuate over 2,000 U.S. Embassy personnel over a 36 hour period. This was a very difficult operation in a challenging environment but all of our flights were completed successfully and once our mission was accomplished, all of our AAR team members were safely evacuated. We are very grateful for their service." Net interest expense for the quarter was $0.7 million compared to $1.6 million last year. Average diluted share count increased to 35.7 million from 35.0 million in the prior year quarter. Cash flow provided by operating activities from continuing operations was $17.5 million during the current quarter compared to $39.8 million in the prior year quarter, which included $48.5 million related to our receipt of funding from the CARES Act through the Payroll Support Program. Excluding our accounts receivable financing program, our cash flow provided by operating activities from continuing operations was $25.9 million in the current quarter. Holmes concluded, "Our continued focus on driving operating efficiency and working capital management led to another quarter of sequential margin improvement and strong cash flow. Looking forward, while the U.S. exit from Afghanistan will impact our government business in the near term, we are encouraged by the strong pipeline of offsetting government opportunities such as the recent contract award from the Department of Energy. In our commercial markets, the timing of the recovery has been impacted by the Delta variant, but as we continue to see demand increase, particularly in our parts activities, we expect continued growth and operating margin expansion." Conference Call Information                                         AAR will hold its quarterly conference call at 3:45 p.m. CT on September 23, 2021. The conference call can be accessed by calling 866-802-4322 from inside the U.S. or +1-703-639-1319 from outside the U.S. A replay of the conference call will also be available by calling 855-859-2056 from inside the U.S. or +1-404-537-3406 from outside the U.S. (access code 8294140). The replay will be available from 7:15 p.m. CT on September 23, 2021 until 10:59 p.m. CT on September 29, 2021. About AAR AAR is a global aerospace and defense aftermarket solutions company with operations in over 20 countries. Headquartered in the Chicago area, AAR supports commercial and government customers through two operating segments: Aviation Services and Expeditionary Services. AAR's Aviation Services include parts supply; OEM solutions; integrated solutions; maintenance, repair, overhaul; and engineering. AAR's Expeditionary Services include mobility systems operations. Additional information can be found at www.aarcorp.com. Contact: Dylan Wolin – Vice President, Strategic & Corporate Development and Treasurer | (630) 227-2017 | dylan.wolin@aarcorp.com This press release contains certain statements relating to future results, which are forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which reflect management's expectations about future conditions, including but not limited to (i) the ability of our latest distribution, government and commercial programs contract awards to support continued long-term growth,(ii) the impact of our continued focus on driving operating efficiency and working capital management on sequential margin improvement and cash flow, (iii) the impact on our government business in the near term of the recent U.S. exit from Afghanistan, (iv) the impact of the strong pipeline of offsetting government opportunities on our future results and (v) our expectations regarding continued growth and operating margin expansion. Forward-looking statements often address our expected future operating and financial performance and financial condition, or sustainability targets, goals, commitments, and other business plans, and often may also be identified because they contain words such as "anticipate," "believe," "continue," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "likely," "may," "might," "plan," "potential," "predict," "project," "seek," "should," "target," "will," "would," or similar expressions and the negatives of those terms. These forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs of Company management, as well as assumptions and estimates based on information available to the Company as of the dates such assumptions and estimates are made, and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated, depending on a variety of factors, including: (i) factors that adversely affect the commercial aviation industry; (ii) the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on air travel, worldwide commercial activity and our and our customers' ability to source parts and components; (iii) a reduction in the level of sales to the branches, agencies and departments of the U.S. government and their contractors (which were 44.7% of total sales in fiscal 2021); (iv) non-compliance with laws and regulations relating to the formation, administration and performance of our U.S. government contracts; (v) cost overruns and losses on fixed-price contracts; (vi) nonperformance by subcontractors or suppliers; (vii) changes in or non-compliance with laws and regulations that may affect certain of our aviation and government and defense related activities that are subject to licensing, certification and other regulatory requirements imposed by the FAA, the U.S. State Department and other regulatory agencies, both domestic and foreign; (viii) a reduction in outsourcing of maintenance activity by airlines; (ix) a shortage of the skilled personnel on whom we depend to operate our business, or work stoppages; (x) competition from other companies, including original equipment manufacturers, some of which have greater financial resources than we do; (xi) financial and operational risks arising as a result of operating internationally; (xii) inability to integrate acquisitions effectively and execute our operational and financial plan related to the acquisitions; (xiii) inability to recover our costs due to fluctuations in market values for aviation products and equipment caused by various factors, including reductions in air travel, airline bankruptcies, consolidations and fleet reductions; (xiv) asset impairment charges we may be required to recognize to reflect the non-recoverability of our assets or lowered expectations regarding businesses we have acquired; (xv) limitations on our ability to access the debt and equity capital markets or to draw down funds under loan agreements; (xvi) non-compliance with restrictive and financial covenants contained in certain of our loan agreements, and government funding received under the CARES Act; (xvii) restrictions on paying, or failure to maintain or pay dividends; (xviii) exposure to product liability and property claims that may be in excess of our liability insurance coverage; (xix) threats to our systems technology from equipment failures' cyber and other security y breaches or other disruptions; (xx) the costs of compliance, and liability for non-compliance, with environmental regulations, including future requirements regarding climate change; and (xxi) a need to make significant capital expenditures to keep pace with technological developments in our industry. Should one or more of those risks or uncertainties materialize adversely, or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described. Those events and uncertainties are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many are beyond our control. For a discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties, refer to our Annual Report on Form 10-K, Part I, "Item 1A, Risk Factors" and our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. These events and uncertainties are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many are beyond the Company's control. The risks described in these reports are not the only risks we face, as additional risks and uncertainties are not currently known or foreseeable or impossible to predict accurately or risks that are beyond the Company's control or deemed immaterial may materially adversely affect our business, financial condition or results of operations in future periods. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of such statements or to reflect the occurrence of anticipated or unanticipated events. AAR CORP. and Subsidiaries Consolidated Statements of Operations (In millions except per share data - unaudited) Three Months Ended August 31,     2021       2020                   Sales $ 455.1     $ 400.8   Cost and expenses:               Cost of sales   390.5       352.2   Selling, general and administrative   49.3       45.3   Loss from joint ventures   (0.2 )     (0.1 ) Operating income   15.1       3.2   Loss on sale of business   ––       (19.5 ) Interest expense, net   (0.7 )     (1.6 ) Other income, net   0.7       0.2   Income (Loss) from continuing operations before income taxes   15.1       (17.7 ) Income tax expense (benefit)   3.9       (3.8 ) Income (Loss) from continuing operations   11.2       (13.9 ) Income (Loss) from discontinued operations   0.3       (0.6 ) Net income (loss) $ 11.5     $ (14.5 )                 Earnings (Loss) per share – Basic               Earnings (Loss) from continuing operations $ 0.32     $ (0.40 ) Earnings (Loss) from discontinued operations   0.01       (0.02 ) Earnings (Loss) per share – Basic $ 0.33     $ (0.42 )                 Earnings (Loss) per share – Diluted               Earnings (Loss) from continuing operations $ 0.31     $ (0.40 ) Earnings (Loss) from discontinued operations   0.01       (0.02 ) Earnings (Loss) per share – Diluted $ 0.32     $ (0.42 )                 Share Data:               Weighted average shares outstanding – Basic   35.1       34.9   Weighted average shares outstanding – Diluted   35.7       35.0                   AAR CORP. and Subsidiaries Consolidated Balance Sheets (In millions) August 31, 2021   May 31, 2021   (unaudited)     ASSETS       Cash and cash equivalents $ 48.8   $ 51.8 Restricted cash   3.8     8.4 Accounts receivable, net   180.8     166.7 Contract assets   74.6     71.9 Inventories, net   525.8     540.6 Rotable assets and equipment on or available for lease   52.3     50.4 Assets of discontinued operations   19.2     19.5 Other current assets   39.6     27.7 Total current assets   944.9     937.0 Property, plant, and equipment, net   109.1     120.0 Operating lease right-of-use assets, net   73.6     75.8 Goodwill and intangible assets, net   122.1     123.8 Rotable assets supporting long-term programs   178.0     184.3 Other non-current assets   108.0     98.8 Total assets $ 1,535.7   $ 1,539.7             LIABILITIES AND EQUITY           Accounts payable and accrued liabilities $ 304.0   $ 301.4 Liabilities of discontinued operations   20.2     35.4 Total current liabilities   324.2     336.8 Long-term debt   127.6     133.7 Operating lease liabilities   58.0     59.9 Other liabilities and deferred income   37.7     34.9 Total liabilities   547.5     565.3 Equity   988.2     974.4 Total liabilities and equity $ 1,535.7   $ 1,539.7             AAR CORP. and Subsidiaries Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (In millions – unaudited) Three Months Ended August 31,.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaSep 23rd, 2021

Progress Announces Third Quarter 2021 Financial Results

Q3 Revenue and EPS Significantly Ahead of GuidanceFull Year 2021 Guidance Raised Again BEDFORD, Mass., Sept. 23, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Progress (NASDAQ:PRGS), the leading provider of products to develop, deploy and manage high-impact business applications, today announced financial results for its fiscal third quarter ended August 31, 2021. Third Quarter 2021 Highlights: Revenue of $147.4 million increased 34% year-over-year on an actual currency basis, and 33% on a constant currency basis. Non-GAAP revenue of $152.6 million increased 38% on an actual currency basis, and 36% on a constant currency basis. Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $444 million increased 25% year-over-year on a constant currency basis. Operating margin was 31% and Non-GAAP operating margin was 47%. Diluted earnings per share was $0.70 compared to $0.53 in the same quarter last year, an increase of 32%.  Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.18 compared to $0.78 in the same quarter last year, an increase of 51%. "We're very pleased to announce Q3 results that significantly beat our previous guidance for revenue and earnings, and we're raising 2021 guidance for the third time this year," said Yogesh Gupta, CEO at Progress. "We also announced the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire Kemp, a leader in the Application Experience (‘AX') space. Kemp meets all our acquisition criteria, fits perfectly with our total growth strategy, and brings a very talented team to Progress." Additional financial highlights included(1):   Three Months Ended   GAAP   Non-GAAP (In thousands, except percentages and per share amounts) August 31,2021   August 31,2020   %Change   August 31,2021   August 31,2020   %Change Revenue $ 147,417     $ 109,699     34 %   $ 152,597     $ 110,882     38 % Income from operations $ 46,046     $ 33,193     39 %   $ 71,163     $ 47,117     51 % Operating margin 31 %   30 %   100 bps   47 %   42 %   500 bps Net income $ 30,976     $ 23,977     29 %   $ 52,577     $ 35,605     48 % Diluted earnings per share $ 0.70     $ 0.53     32 %   $ 1.18     $ 0.78     51 % Cash from operations (GAAP) /Adjusted free cash flow (Non-GAAP) $ 35,224     $ 31,112     13 %   $ 35,022     $ 30,101     16 % (1)See Legal Notice Regarding Non-GAAP Financial Information Other fiscal third quarter 2021 metrics and recent results included: Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $383.7 million at the end of the quarter. DSO was 54 days compared to 49 days in the fiscal third quarter of 2020 and 44 days in the fiscal second quarter of 2021. On September 21, 2021, our Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.175 per share of common stock that will be paid on December 15, 2021 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on December 1, 2021. On September 23, 2021, we announced a definitive agreement to acquire Kemp Technologies, a leader in the Application Experience space, for $258 million in cash. Anthony Folger, CFO, said: "Q3 results were outstanding across every metric and our confidence in our business is reflected in the increased outlook for 2021. In addition to our strong financial results and outlook, we continued to execute our total growth strategy while remaining disciplined with the acquisition of Kemp, a deal that positions us exceptionally well for 2022 and beyond." 2021 Business Outlook Progress provides the following guidance for the fiscal year ending November 30, 2021 and the fiscal fourth quarter ending November 30, 2021:   Updated FY 2021 Guidance(September 23, 2021)   Prior FY 2021 Guidance(June 24, 2021) (In millions, except percentages and per share amounts) GAAP   Non-GAAP   GAAP   Non-GAAP Revenue $520 - $524   $548 - $552   $503 - $509   $529 - $535 Diluted earnings per share $1.56 - $1.58   $3.68 - $3.70   $1.51 - $1.55   $3.46 - $3.50 Operating margin 21%   40%   21%   39% Cash from operations (GAAP) /Adjusted free cash flow (Non-GAAP) $168 - $172   $168 - $172   $160 - $164   $158 - $162 Effective tax rate 20% - 21%   20% - 21%   20% - 21%   20% - 21%   Q4 2021 Guidance (In millions, except per share amounts) GAAP   Non-GAAP Revenue $129 - $133   $134 - $138 Diluted earnings per share $0.13 - $0.15   $0.73 - $0.75 Based on current exchange rates, the expected positive currency translation impact on Progress' fiscal year 2021 business outlook compared to 2020 exchange rates is approximately $6.8 million on GAAP and non-GAAP revenue, and approximately $0.04 on GAAP and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share. The expected positive currency translation impact on Progress' fiscal Q4 2021 business outlook compared to 2020 exchange rates on GAAP and non-GAAP revenue is approximately $0.6 million. The expected positive impact on GAAP and non-GAAP diluted Q4 2021 earnings per share is $0.01. To the extent that there are changes in exchange rates versus the current environment, this may have an impact on Progress' business outlook. Conference Call Progress will hold a conference call to review its financial results for the fiscal third quarter of 2021 at 5:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 23, 2021. The call can be accessed on the investor relations section of the company's website, located at www.progress.com. Additionally, you can listen to the call by telephone by dialing 800-773-2954 or +1 847-413-3731, passcode 50220857. The conference call will include comments followed by questions and answers. An archived version of the conference call and supporting materials will be available on the Progress website within the investor relations section after the live conference call. Legal Notice Regarding Non-GAAP Financial Information Progress provides non-GAAP financial information as additional information for investors. These non-GAAP measures are not in accordance with, or an alternative to, generally accepted accounting principles in the United States ("GAAP"). Progress believes that the non-GAAP results described in this release are useful for an understanding of its ongoing operations and provide additional detail and an alternative method of assessing its operating results.  A reconciliation of non-GAAP adjustments to the company's GAAP financial results is included in the tables below and is available on the Progress website at www.progress.com within the investor relations section. Additional information regarding the company's non-GAAP financial information is contained in the company's Current Report on Form 8-K furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission in connection with this press release, which is also available on the Progress website within the investor relations section. Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This press release contains statements that are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Progress has identified some of these forward-looking statements with words like "believe," "may," "could," "would," "might," "should," "expect," "intend," "plan," "target," "anticipate" and "continue," the negative of these words, other terms of similar meaning or the use of future dates. Forward-looking statements in this press release include, but are not limited to, statements regarding Progress' business outlook and financial guidance. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results or future events to differ materially from those anticipated by the forward-looking statements, including, without limitation: (1) Economic, geopolitical and market conditions can adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition, including our revenue growth and profitability, which in turn could adversely affect our stock price. (2) We may fail to achieve our financial forecasts due to such factors as delays or size reductions in transactions, fewer large transactions in a particular quarter, fluctuations in currency exchange rates, or a decline in our renewal rates for contracts. (3) Our ability to successfully manage transitions to new business models and markets, including an increased emphasis on a cloud and subscription strategy, may not be successful. (4) If we are unable to develop new or sufficiently differentiated products and services, or to enhance and improve our existing products and services in a timely manner to meet market demand, partners and customers may not purchase new software licenses or subscriptions or purchase or renew support contracts. (5) We depend upon our extensive partner channel and we may not be successful in retaining or expanding our relationships with channel partners. (6) Our international sales and operations subject us to additional risks that can adversely affect our operating results, including risks relating to foreign currency gains and losses. (7) If the security measures for our software, services, other offerings or our internal information technology infrastructure are compromised or subject to a successful cyber-attack, or if our software offerings contain significant coding or configuration errors, we may experience reputational harm, legal claims and financial exposure. (8) We have made acquisitions, and may make acquisitions in the future, and those acquisitions may not be successful, may involve unanticipated costs or other integration issues or may disrupt our existing operations. (9) Delay or failure to realize the expected synergies and benefits of the Kemp acquisition could negatively impact our future results of operations and financial condition; (10) The continuing impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak on our employees, customers, partners, and the global financial markets could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition. For further information regarding risks and uncertainties associated with Progress' business, please refer to Progress' filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended November 30, 2020. Progress undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this press release. About Progress Progress (NASDAQ:PRGS) provides the best products to develop, deploy and manage high-impact business applications. Our comprehensive product stack is designed to make technology teams more productive and we have a deep commitment to the developer community, both open source and commercial alike. With Progress, organizations can accelerate the creation and delivery of strategic business applications, automate the process by which apps are configured, deployed and scaled, and make critical data and content more accessible and secure—leading to competitive differentiation and business success. Over 1,700 independent software vendors, 100,000 enterprise customers, and three million developers rely on Progress to power their applications. Learn about Progress at www.progress.com or +1-800-477-6473. Progress and Progress Software are trademarks or registered trademarks of Progress Software Corporation and/or its subsidiaries or affiliates in the U.S. and other countries. Any other names contained herein may be trademarks of their respective owners. Investor Contact:   Press Contact: Michael Micciche   Erica McShane Progress Software   Progress Software +1 781 850 8450   +1 781 280 4000 Investor-Relations@progress.com   PR@progress.com CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS(Unaudited)   Three Months Ended   Nine Months Ended (In thousands, except per share data) August 31,2021   August 31,2020   %Change   August 31,2021   August 31,2020   %Change Revenue:                       Software licenses $ 51,930     $ 27,514     89 %   $ 115,354     $ 77,806     48 % Maintenance and services 95,487     82,185     16 %   275,831     241,959     14 % Total revenue 147,417     109,699     34 %   391,185     319,765     22 % Costs of revenue:                       Cost of software licenses 1,574     1,103     43 %   3,763     3,302     14 % Cost of maintenance and services 14,895     11,971     24 %   42,887     35,607     20 % Amortization of acquired intangibles 3,599     1,664     116 %   10,719     4,974     116 % Total costs of revenue 20,068     14,738     36 %   57,369     43,883     31 % Gross profit 127,349     94,961     34 %   333,816     275,882     21 % Operating expenses:                       Sales and marketing 29,737     22,186     34 %   88,468     68,100     30 % Product development 25,616     20,676     24 %   76,579     64,117     19 % General and administrative 16,451     13,514     22 %   46,335     38,702     20 % Amortization of acquired intangibles 7,978     4,176     91 %   22,836     12,484     83 % Restructuring expenses 40     91     (56 )%   1,133     1,826     (38 )% Acquisition-related expenses 1,481     1,125     32 %   2,721     1,439     89 % Total operating expenses 81,303     61,768     32 %   238,072     186,668     28 % Income from operations 46,046     33,193     39 %   95,744     89,214     7 % Other expense, net (6,539 )   (2,962 )   (121 )%   (14,409 )   (9,206 )   (57 )% Income before income taxes 39,507     30,231     31 %   81,335     80,008     2 % Provision for income taxes 8,531     6,254     36 %   17,841     17,947     (1 )% Net income $ 30,976     $ 23,977     29 %   $ 63,494     $ 62,061     2 %                         Earnings per share:                       Basic $ 0.71     $ 0.53     34 %   $ 1.45     $ 1.38     5 % Diluted $ 0.70     $ 0.53     32 %   $ 1.43     $ 1.37     4 % Weighted average shares outstanding:                       Basic 43,762     45,036     (3 )%   43,896.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaSep 23rd, 2021

Urban Outfitters (URBN) Down 11.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

Urban Outfitters (URBN) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues. A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Urban Outfitters (URBN). Shares have lost about 11.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Urban Outfitters due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. Urban Outfitters Q2 Earnings & Sales Beat, Rise Y/YUrban Outfitters reported sturdy second-quarter fiscal 2022 results wherein the top and the bottom line outshone the Zacks Consensus Estimate and also improved on a year-over-year basis. We note that sales across the company’s all brands and segments grew year over year.Deeper InsightThe company delivered earnings per share of $1.28 that beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 79 cents. The bottom line improved significantly from 35 cents recorded in the year-ago quarter and 61 cents earned in the quarter ended Jul 31, 2019.In the reported quarter, net sales of $1,157.7 million soared 44.1% year over year and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,080 million. Also, the metric grew 20.3% from the figure reported in the quarter ended Jul 31, 2019. Brandwise, net sales were up 36.3% year over year to $441.6 million at Urban Outfitters, 52.7% to $450.6 million at Anthropologie Group and 40.3% to $249.7 million at Free People. Menus & Venues’ net sales amounted to $5.9 million, significantly up from $1.6 million recorded in the prior-year quarter. Nuuly, the subscription-based rental service for women’s clothes contributed $9.9 million to net sales, reflecting an increase 110.6% from the year-ago period’s level.Segmentwise, net sales at the company’s Retail Segment surged 43.8% year over year to $1,089 million while the same at the Wholesale Segment climbed 43.1% to $58.8 million. Comparable Retail segment net sales rose 40% year over year and 22% from the same-quarter fiscal 2020 level on account of double-digit sales growth across the digital channel. Growth was partly offset by low single-digit negative retail store sales on lower store traffic. Robust consumer demand in majority of the product categories, mainly apparel, as well as solid execution drove double-digit retail segment comps across all brands. When compared to the quarter ended Jul 31, 2019, comparable Retail segment net sales jumped 53% at the Free People Group, 14% at the Anthropologie Group and 20% at Urban Outfitters.An Insight Into MarginsIn the quarter under review, gross profit soared 82.9% year over year to $435.3 million from the year-ago quarter’s level. Also, gross margin expanded 800 basis points (bps) year over year and 478 bps from the second-quarter fiscal 2020 tally to 37.6%. Record low merchandise markdown rates in the Retail segment coupled with leveraged store occupancy expenses on higher penetration of the digital channel in Retail segment net sales aided the gross margin.Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses shot up 59.8% year over year and 13.3% from the second-quarter fiscal 2020 level to $269.4 million. As a percentage of net sales, the metric increased 230 bps year over year while the same decreased 140 bps from the fiscal 2020 figure to 23.3%.The company recorded an operating income of $165.9 million, significantly up from $69.4 million recorded in the prior-year quarter and $78.1 million reported in second-quarter fiscal 2019. As a rate of sales, operating margin expanded 570 bps year over year and 620 bps from the quarter ended Jul 31, 2019 to 14.3%.Other Financial DetailsUrban Outfitters ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $464.8 million and total shareholders’ equity of $1,669.4 million. As of Jul 31, 2021, total inventory increased 37.3% year over year to $483.1 million.This Philadelphia, PA-based company generated net cash of $195.2 million from operating activities during the first half of fiscal 2022. For fiscal 2022, management projects capital expenditures of nearly $285 million, mainly related to expanded distribution and fulfillment capacity to boost digital growth and store launches.Urban Outfitters did not buy back shares in the first six months of fiscal 2022. It repurchased and subsequently retired 0.5 million shares for roughly $7 million in fiscal 2021. As of Jul 31, 2021, the company had 25.9 million shares remaining under its share repurchase programs.OutlookManagement highlighted that comp sales in August at the Free People and Anthropologie brands are almost in line with the reported quarter’s levels while Urban Outfitters’ brand comps slowed down in mid-July. The company expects retail segment comps for the Urban Outfitters’ brand in the fiscal third quarter to moderate by high single-digits. August to date, the overall Urban Outfitters retail segment comp sales are mid-teens positive.Urban Outfitters projects the fiscal third quarter to continue reflecting a healthy sales improvement in comparison to fiscal 2020. It believes that retail segment comp sales will grow in mid teens while the wholesale segment sales are likely to decline at a rate similar to that of the fiscal second quarter. These will result in the overall company sales in low double-digits.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 19.89% due to these changes.VGM ScoresAt this time, Urban Outfitters has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Urban Outfitters has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Toll Brothers (TOL) Down 5.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

Toll Brothers (TOL) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues. A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Toll Brothers (TOL). Shares have lost about 5.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Toll Brothers due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. Toll Brothers Q3 Earnings & Revenues Top, Margin UpToll Brothers, Inc. reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2021 (ended Jul 31, 2021) results. Both the top and bottom lines topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increased significantly on a year-over-year basis. The company has been benefiting from its strategy of broadening the product lines, price points and geographies.Douglas C. Yearley, Jr., chairman and chief executive officer, said, “Demand continues to be very strong. Net signed contracts were up 35% in dollars to approximately $3 billion compared to the prior year period. The housing market is being driven by many strong fundamentals, including low mortgage rates, favorable millennial-driven demographics, a decade of pent-up demand, low new home supply, and a tight resale market. We expect strong and sustainable demand for our homes in the years to come.”He continued, “Our record backlog, our focus on capital and operating efficiency, and the continued strength of the housing market give us confidence that our full FY 2022 margins will significantly exceed the strong margins we project for our FY 2021 fourth quarter and that our return on beginning equity will exceed 20% in FY 2022 and beyond.”On Aug, 24, 2021, Toll Brothers announced a strategic partnership with Equity Residential to selectively acquire and develop sites for new rental apartment communities in Metro Boston, MA; Atlanta, GA; Austin, TX; Denver, CO; Orange County/San Diego, CA; Seattle, WA, and Dallas-Fort Worth, TX.Earnings & Revenue DiscussionThe country’s leading luxury homebuilder reported earnings of $1.87 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.52 by 23%. Also, the said figure grew 74.4% from the year-ago figure of 90 cents per share as a result of higher revenues and margins.Revenues of $2.26 billion topped the consensus mark of $2.22 billion by 1.7% and increased 26.8% year over year, backed by solid demand during the quarter.Segment DetailToll Brothers operates under two reportable segments, namely Traditional Home Building and Urban Infill ("City Living").Revenues from Traditional Home Building totaled $2.15 billion, up 28.1% year over year, and that of City Living increased more than 594% to $184 million.Inside the Headline NumbersHome sales revenues grew 37% from the prior year to $2.23 billion. Homes delivered grew 28% year over year to 2,597 units. Deliveries increased in all regions served by the company. The average price of homes delivered was $806,600 for the quarter, up 1.7% from the year-ago level of $793,100.The number of net signed contracts for the reported quarter was 3,154 units, up 11% year over year. The value of net signed contracts was $2.98 billion, reflecting a rise of 35% from the year-ago quarter. These marked record third-quarter numbers.At fiscal third quarter-end, Toll Brothers had a backlog of 10,661 homes, representing a 47% year-over-year increase. Also, potential revenues from backlog improved 55% year over year to $9.44 billion. Backlog for the quarter, in both dollars and units, marked an all-time record high. The average price of homes in backlog totaled $885,200, up from $840,600 at the end of the comparable period of fiscal 2020.Cancellation rate for the reported quarter was 3.1% compared with 8% in the prior-year period.MarginsThe company’s home sales adjusted gross margin was 25.6%, expanding 170 basis points (bps) for the quarter.SG&A expenses — as a percentage of home sales revenues — were 10.5%, which decreased from 11.9% in the year-ago quarter.FinancialsToll Brothers had $946 million cash and cash equivalents as of Jul 31, 2021 compared with $1.37 billion at fiscal 2020-end. At fiscal third quarter-end, it had $1.79 billion available under the $1.905-billion bank revolving credit facility, scheduled to mature in November 2025.Total debt at fiscal third quarter-end was $3.59 billion, down from $3.96 billion at fiscal 2020-end. Debt to capital was 41.6% at fiscal third quarter-end versus 44.8% a year ago.During the quarter, the company repurchased nearly 1.7 million shares of its common stock at an average price of $57.66 per share for approximately $95.4 million.Fiscal Fourth-Quarter GuidanceToll Brothers expects home deliveries of 3,450 units (indicating an improvement from 2,940 units delivered in the prior-year quarter) at an average price of $840,000 (suggesting a rise from $805,000 a year ago).Adjusted home sales gross margin is now expected to be 25.6% (up from prior projection of 24.8), implying an increase from 21.9% in the year-ago period. SG&A expenses are estimated to be 9.8% of home sales revenues (pointing to fall from 9.9% a year ago). The projection has improved from prior expectation of 11.6%. The company expects effective tax rate to be 26%.Fiscal 2021 GuidanceFor full-year fiscal 2021, home deliveries are now anticipated to be 10,100 units (indicating an improvement from 8,496 units reported in fiscal 2020) at an average price of $830,000. Average price in the year-ago quarter was $816,500.Toll Brothers expects adjusted home sales gross margin of 24.9% (reflecting a marginal increase from 24.6% projected earlier). The current projection implies growth from 23.5% recorded in the year-ago period. SG&A expenses, as a percentage of home sales revenues, for full-year fiscal 2021 are projected to be 11.3% (suggesting fall from 12.5% in fiscal 2020). The current estimate reflects a decrease from the prior projection of 11.8%.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 5.27% due to these changes.VGM ScoresAt this time, Toll Brothers has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Toll Brothers has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

KB Home (KBH) Q3 Earnings Beat, Revenues Miss on Supply Woes

KB Home (KBH) posts better-than-expected fiscal Q3 earnings on strong housing market demand and increased pricing. KB Home’s KBH shares gained a meager 0.8% in the after-market trading session on Sep 22, following the release of third-quarter fiscal 2021 results (ended Aug 31, 2021). Although earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, revenues missed the same owing to supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Nonetheless, earnings and revenues grew significantly from a year ago, buoyed by strong housing market demand.Jeffrey Mezger, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, said, "As we approach the end of our 2021 fiscal year, we expect that our increased scale at a higher profitability level will generate a return on equity of approximately 20% for the year. Looking ahead to 2022, we anticipate another year of profitable growth. With a sizable increase in our backlog value and projected increases in community count and margins, we expect a meaningful expansion of our return on equity that will be further enhanced by the $188 million we returned to stockholders through recent share repurchases."Earnings & Revenue DiscussionKB Home reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $1.64 per share, which surpassed the consensus estimate of $1.60 by 2.5%. Also, the metric grew significantly from the year-ago figure of 83 cents per share.Total revenues of $1,467.1 million missed the consensus mark of $1,560 million by 6%. Nonetheless, revenues grew 46.9% on a year-over-year basis.KB Home Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise  KB Home price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | KB Home QuoteSegment DetailsHomebuilding: For the quarter under review, the segment's revenues of $1,461.9 million increased 46.9% from the prior-year period.The number of homes delivered grew 35% from the year-ago level to 3,425 units. Further, average selling price or ASP increased 11% from a year ago to $426,800.Net orders dropped 3% from the prior-year quarter to 4,085 homes. Nonetheless, value of net orders rose 22% from the year-ago quarter to $2.01 billion.For the reported quarter, average community count was down 14% from a year ago to 205. Quarter-end community count was 210, down 9% from the prior year.Cancellation rate, as a percentage of gross orders, improved to 9% from 17% reported a year ago. Its quarter-end backlog totaled 10,694 homes (as of Aug 31, 2021), up 58% from a year ago. Further, potential housing revenues from backlog grew 89% from the prior-year period to $4.84 billion.MarginsWithin homebuilding, housing gross margin (excluding inventory-related charges) improved 140 basis points (bps) year over year to 22%. The increase was attributed to a favorable pricing environment due to robust housing market demand, increased operating leverage on higher revenues and lower amortization of previously capitalized interest.As a percentage of housing revenues, selling, general and administrative expenses improved 110 bps from the year-ago figure to 9.9% due to higher operating leverage, given strong housing demand.Homebuilding operating margin (excluding inventory-related charges) increased 250 bps to 12.1%. Financial Services revenues rose 34.7% year over year to $5,206 million. Pretax income of $9.4 million rose 2.9% from a year ago.Financial PositionKB Home had cash and cash equivalents of $350 million as of Aug 31, 2021, down from $681.2 million on Nov 30, 2020. The company had total liquidity of $1.4 billion, including $791.4 million of available capacity under the unsecured revolving credit facility.Inventories increased 19% from Nov 30, 2020, to $4.66 billion at the end of third-quarter fiscal 2021.GuidanceFor the fiscal fourth quarter, the company expects ASP of $450,000, indicating an increase of 9% from a year ago. Housing revenues are projected in the range of $1.65-$1.75 billion. Homebuilding operating income margin (excluding the impact of any inventory-related charges) is expected to improve to 11.8% in the quarter, suggesting an increase from 10.7% a year ago. Assuming no inventory-related charges, KB Home expects fiscal fourth-quarter housing gross margin in the range of 21.6-22%. SG&A expense ratio will be approximately 10% during the fiscal fourth quarter. This suggests an improvement from 10.3% in the year-ago period.The company expects year-end community count to improve slightly from the third quarter, resulting in a high single-digit decline in the average fourth-quarter count as compared to the prior year.Zacks Rank & Key PicksCurrently, KB Home carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).Some better-ranked stocks in the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry include MI Homes, Inc. MHO, Meritage Homes Corporation MTH and Century Communities, Inc. CCS. While MI Homes and Meritage Homes currently sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Century Communities carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.MI Homes, Meritage Homes and Century Communities’ earnings for the current year are expected to rise 63.3%, 72.4% and 115.9%, respectively. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report KB Home (KBH): Free Stock Analysis Report Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH): Free Stock Analysis Report Century Communities, Inc. (CCS): Free Stock Analysis Report MI Homes, Inc. (MHO): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Nucor (NUE) to Construct $100 Million Melt Shop in Western U.S

Nucor's (NUE) new melt shop will help the company to maintain its market leading position in steel bar production and meet anticipated demand growth for bar products from its customers. Nucor Corporation NUE recently announced that its board has approved the construction of a new melt shop at one of its existing bar mills in the Western United States. The new $100-million melt shop is expected to have a manufacturing capacity to manufacture 600,000 tons annually and create roughly 140 new full-time jobs, with start-up expected in 2024.Nucor has 15 bar mills tactically sited across the United States, which produce a wide array of steel products, including concrete reinforcing bars, hot-rolled bars, rounds, light shapes, structural angles, channels, wire rod as well as highway products in carbon and alloy steels.Four of the bar mills are focused on producing SBQ and wire rod products. The steel manufactured by Nucor bar mills serves numerous end markets, including the agricultural, automotive, construction, energy, furniture, machinery, metal building, railroad, recreational equipment, shipbuilding, heavy truck and trailer market segments. Nucor's bar steel capacity is estimated to be roughly 9.5 million tons annually.The new melt shop will help Nucor maintain its market leading position in steel bar production and facilitate it to meet anticipated demand growth for bar products from  customers in the Western United States.Shares of Nucor have gained 117.2% in the past year compared with a 100.1% surge of the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchNucor recently announced guidance for third-quarter 2021. It expects the quarter’s earnings between $7.30 and $7.40 per share. The company is gearing up to report the highest quarterly earnings ever in its history, surpassing the prior record of earnings per share (EPS) of $5.04 in second-quarter 2021.This upbeat outlook is backed by strong demand across most of Nucor’s end-markets and higher average selling prices, which is driving  strong profitability in all of the three segments. The company expects the steel products segment to generate significantly higher earnings in the third quarter, owing to margin expansion arising from higher average selling prices.Nucor Corporation Price and Consensus  Nucor Corporation price-consensus-chart | Nucor Corporation Quote Zacks Rank & Other Key PicksNucor currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).Some other top-ranked stocks in the basic materials space are Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. RS, The Chemours Company CC and Olin Corporation OLN.Reliance Steel has a projected earnings growth rate of around 147.7% for the current year. The company’s shares have soared 41% in a year. It currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Chemours has an expected earnings growth rate of around 86.4% for the current year. The company’s shares have gained 36.6% in the past year. It currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1.Olin has an expected earnings growth rate of around 639.3% for the current fiscal. The company’s shares have surged 302.6% in the past year. It currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Nucor Corporation (NUE): Free Stock Analysis Report Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS): Free Stock Analysis Report Olin Corporation (OLN): Free Stock Analysis Report The Chemours Company (CC): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Hanover Insurance (THG) Projects Q3 Cat Loss of $119M-$130M

Hanover Insurance's (THG) third-quarter estimated cat loss of $119-$130 million can be primarily attributed to losses from Hurricane Ida. The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. THG estimates third-quarter catastrophe loss of $150-$165 million pre-tax or $119-$130 million after taxes. The loss is expected to primarily stem from Hurricane Ida.Losses from Hurricane Ida are estimated to be $75 million, before taxes, stemming from losses in the Northeast and, to a lesser extent, from the Gulf and Mid-Atlantic states.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.82 per share, which indicates a decline of 26% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. We expect estimates to move south once analysts start incorporating loss estimates into their numbers.AIR Worldwide, a modeling firm, projects total insured losses from Hurricane Ida in the range of $20-$30 billion as reported in Insurance Journal. The Allstate Corporation ALL estimates net losses of $631 million pretax ($498 million after-tax) from Hurricane Ida.Being a property and casualty insurer, Hanover Insurance is exposed to claims stemming from catastrophes, which significantly affects operations and financial condition. In the first half of 2021, total catastrophe loss increased 13% year over year to $210.1 million, primarily due to freeze events in Texas and surrounding states and wind, rain, and hail events in the Midwest in June. Combined ratio deteriorated 90 basis points (bps) year over year to 96.6.It lowered exposure in vulnerable regions of the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and West Coast, while reducing micro concentrations and enhancing reinsurance protections. These steps should allow it to improve underwriting profitability.The Commercial Lines and Personal Lines segments are primarily protected by a property catastrophe occurrence program, a property per risk excess of loss treaty.This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) insurer has enhanced analytics and risk management initiatives to manage climate change and catastrophe exposure. It uses facultative, property per-risk, and catastrophe treaty reinsurance to mitigate the possible impact from extreme events.Shares of The Hanover Insurance have rallied 46.2% year over year compared with the industry’s increase of 22.7%. Prudent management of business mix, focus on the growth of the most profitable product lines, stable retention, better pricing, and strong market presence should help shares bounce back.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchOther Stocks to ConsiderSome other top-ranked stocks in the same space include Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF and Everest Re Group RE, both sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Cincinnati Financial delivered an earnings surprise of 80.81% in the last reported quarter.Everest Re Group delivered an earnings surprise of 62.56% in the last reported quarter.  More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF): Free Stock Analysis Report The Allstate Corporation (ALL): Free Stock Analysis Report Everest Re Group, Ltd. (RE): Free Stock Analysis Report The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Dynavax (DVAX) Gains on Clover"s COVID-19 Vaccine Study Data

Dynavax (DVAX) stock gains as partner Clover announces strong efficacy of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate against the Delta variant in pivotal study data readout. Shares of Dynavax Technologies Corporation DVAX jumped 26.5% on Sep 22 after its Taiwan-based partner, Clover Biopharmaceuticals announced positive data from a pivotal study evaluating the latter’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate.Clover was evaluating its vaccine candidate, SCB-2019, adjuvanted with Dynavax's CpG 1018 adjuvant in a phase II/III study — SPECTRA. Data from the study demonstrated that immunization with the candidate led to overall efficacy of 100% against severe COVID-19 and hospitalization, and 84% against moderate-to-severe COVID-19 caused by currently leading strains of coronavirus, including Delta, Gamma, and Mu variants. The vaccine candidate achieved an overall efficacy of 67% against COVID-19 infection of any severity caused by any strain in the study.The SPECTRA study evaluated SCB-2019 adjuvanted with CpG 1018 adjuvant against different variants of the original SAR-CoV-2 virus. Data from the study demonstrated an overall efficacy of the vaccine candidate of 79%, 92%, and 59% against the Delta variant, the Gamma variant, and the Mu variant, respectively. The study data also demonstrated that the vaccine reduced the risk of breakthrough infections.Shares of Dynavax have surged 322.3% so far this year compared with the industry’s growth of 0.6%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchAlthough the leading COVID-19 vaccine makers — Pfizer PFE, Moderna MRNA, and J&J JNJ — have already supplied millions of doses to the world, coronavirus vaccines under development also hold strong potential as there is requirement of several billions of doses across the globe. Several companies developing vaccines may benefit from the current COVID-19 situation. Clover’s strong efficacy against the prevalent Delta variant and breakthrough infections make it one of the top contenders to gain significantly. Per Clover, the Delta variant is the most prevalent strain of the coronavirus currently across the globe with 90% of infection cases caused due to the variant.Moreover, Clover’s agreement with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (“CEPI”) will guarantee expedited distribution of the vaccine, once approved/authorized.Dynavax’s shares also gained last month following the rollout of its Taiwan-based partner Medigen Vaccine Biologics’ COVID-19 vaccine — MVC-COV1901 — in the East Asian country.Net product revenues from CpG 1018 adjuvant during the second quarter of 2021 were $39.0 million. We note that successful distribution/commercialization of Clover’s and Medigen’s COVID-19 vaccines following an authorization/approval will also be beneficial for Dynavax as it will generate additional revenues under its collaboration with Clover.Dynavax Technologies Corporation Price Dynavax Technologies Corporation price | Dynavax Technologies Corporation QuoteZacks RankDynavax currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Dynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX): Free Stock Analysis Report Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Free Stock Analysis Report Pfizer Inc. (PFE): Free Stock Analysis Report Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Futures Rise On Taper, Evergrande Optimism

Futures Rise On Taper, Evergrande Optimism US index futures jumped overnight even as the Fed confirmed that a November tapering was now guaranteed and would be completed by mid-2022 with one rate hike now on deck, while maintaining the possibility to extend stimulus if necessitated by the economy. Sentiment got an additional boost from a strong showing of Evergrande stock - which closed up 17% - during the Chinese session, which peaked just after Bloomberg reported that China told Evergrande to avoid a near-term dollar bond default and which suggested that the "government wants to avoid an imminent collapse of the developer" however that quickly reversed when the WSJ reported, just one hour later, that China was making preparations for Evergrande's demise, and although that hammered stocks, the report explicitly noted that a worst-case scenario for Evergrande would mean a partial or full nationalization as "local-level government agencies and state-owned enterprises have been instructed to step in only at the last minute should Evergrande fail to manage its affairs in an orderly fashion." In other words, both reports are bullish: either foreign creditors are made whole (no default) as per BBG or the situation deteriorates and Evergrande is nationalized ("SOEs step in") as per WSJ. According to Bloomberg, confidence is building that markets can ride out a pullback in Fed stimulus, unlike 2013 when the taper tantrum triggered large losses in bonds and equities. "Investors are betting that the economic and profit recovery will be strong enough to outweigh a reduction in asset purchases, while ultra-low rates will continue to support riskier assets even as concerns linger about contagion from China’s real-estate woes." That's one view: the other is that the Fed has so broken the market's discounting ability we won't know just how bad tapering will get until it actually begins. “The Fed has got to be pleased that their communication on the longer way to tapering has avoided the dreaded fear of the tantrum,” Jeffrey Rosenberg, senior portfolio manager for systematic fixed income at BlackRock Inc., said on Bloomberg Television. “This is a very good outcome for the Fed in terms of signaling their intent to give the market information well ahead of the tapering decision.” Then there is the question of Evergrande: “With regards to Evergrande, all those people who are waiting for a Lehman moment in China will probably have to wait another turn,” said Ken Peng, an investment strategist at Citi Private Bank Asia Pacific. “So I wouldn’t treat this as completely bad, but there are definitely a lot of risks on the horizon.” In any case, today's action is a continuation of the best day in two months for both the Dow and the S&P which staged a strong recovery from two-month lows hit earlier in the week, and as of 745am ET, S&P 500 E-minis were up 25.25 points, or 0.6%, Dow E-minis were up 202 points, or 0.59%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 92.0 points, or 0.60%. In the premarket, electric vehicle startup Lucid Group rose 3.1% in U.S. premarket trading. PAVmed (PVM US) jumps 11% after its Lucid Diagnostics unit announced plans to list on the Global Market of the Nasdaq Stock Market.  Here are some of the biggest movers today: U.S.-listed Chinese stocks rise in premarket trading as fears of contagion from China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis ease. Blackberry (BB US) shares rise 8.7% in premarket after co.’s 2Q adjusted revenue beat the average of analysts’ estimates Eargo (EAR US) falls 57% in Thursday premarket after the hearing aid company revealed it was the target of a Justice Department criminal probe and withdrew its forecasts for the year Amplitude Healthcare Acquisition (AMHC US) doubled in U.S. premarket trading after the SPAC’s shareholders approved the previously announced business combination with Jasper Therapeutics Steelcase (SCS US) fell 4.8% Wednesday postmarket after the office products company reported revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate Vertex Energy Inc. (VTNR US) gained 2.1% premarket after saying the planned acquisition of a refinery in Mobile, Alabama from Royal DutVTNR US Equitych Shell Plc is on schedule Synlogic (SYBX US) shares declined 9.7% premarket after it launched a stock offering launched without disclosing a size HB Fuller (FUL US) climbed 2.7% in postmarket trading after third quarter sales beat even the highest analyst estimate Europe's Stoxx 600 index rose 0.9%, lifted by carmakers, tech stocks and utilities, which helped it recover losses sparked earlier in the week by concerns about Evergrande and China’s crackdown on its property sector. The gauge held its gain after surveys of purchasing managers showed business activity in the euro area lost momentum and slowed broadly in September after demand peaked over the summer and supply-chain bottlenecks hurt services and manufacturers. Euro Area Composite PMI (September, Flash): 56.1, consensus 58.5, last 59.0. Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (September, Flash): 58.7, consensus 60.3, last 61.4. Euro Area Services PMI (September, Flash): 56.3, consensus 58.5, last 59.0. Germany Composite PMI (September, Flash): 55.3, consensus 59.2, last 60.0. France Composite PMI (September, Flash): 55.1, consensus 55.7, last 55.9. UK Composite PMI (September, Flash): 54.1, consensus 54.6, last 54.8. Commenting on Europe's PMIs, Goldman said that the Euro area composite PMI declined by 2.9pt to 56.1 in September, well below consensus expectations. The softening was broad-based across countries but primarily led by Germany. The peripheral composite flash PMI also weakened significantly in September but remain very high by historical standards (-2.4pt to 57.5). Across sectors, the September composite decline was also broad-based, with manufacturing output softening (-3.3pt to 55.6) to a similar extent as services (-2.7pt to 56.3). Supply-side issues and upward cost and price pressures continued to be widely reported. Expectations of future output growth declined by less than spot output on the back of delta variant worries and supply issues, remaining far above historically average levels. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for the first time in four sessions, as Hong Kong helped lead a rally on hopes that troubled property firm China Evergrande Group will make progress on debt repayment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.5%, with Tencent and Meituan providing the biggest boosts. The Hang Seng jumped as much as 2.5%, led by real estate stocks as Evergrande surged more than 30%. Hong Kong shares later pared their gains. Asian markets were also cheered by gains in U.S. stocks overnight even as the Federal Reserve said it may begin scaling back stimulus this year. A $17 billion net liquidity injection from the People’s Bank of China also provided a lift, while the Fed and Bank of Japan downplayed Evergrande risks in comments accompanying policy decisions Wednesday. Evergrande’s stock closed 18% higher in Hong Kong, in a delayed reaction to news a unit of the developer had negotiated interest payments on yuan notes. A coupon payment on its 2022 dollar bond is due on Thursday “Investors are perhaps reassessing the tail risk of a disorderly fallout from Evergrande’s credit issues,” said Chetan Seth, a strategist at Nomura. “However, I am not sure if the fundamental issue around its sustainable deleveraging has been addressed. I suspect markets will likely remain quite volatile until we have some definite direction from authorities on the eventual resolution of Evergrande’s debt problems.” Stocks rose in most markets, with Australia, Taiwan, Singapore and India also among the day’s big winners. South Korea’s benchmark was the lone decliner, while Japan was closed for a holiday In rates, Treasuries were off session lows, with the 10Y trading a 1.34%, but remained under pressure in early U.S. session led by intermediate sectors, where 5Y yield touched highest since July 2. Wednesday’s dramatic yield-curve flattening move unleashed by Fed communications continued, compressing 5s30s spread to 93.8bp, lowest since May 2020. UK 10-year yield climbed 3.4bp to session high 0.833% following BOE rate decision (7-2 vote to keep bond-buying target unchanged); bunds outperformed slightly. Peripheral spreads tighten with long-end Italy outperforming. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed an earlier gain and dropped 0.3% as the dollar weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen amid a more positive sentiment. CAD, NOK and SEK are the strongest performers in G-10, JPY the laggard.  The euro and the pound briefly pared gains after weaker-than-forecast German and British PMIs. The pound rebounded from an eight-month low amid a return of global risk appetite as investors assessed whether the Bank of England will follow the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone later Thursday. The yield differential between 10-year German and Italian debt narrowed to its tightest since April. Norway’s krone advanced after Norges Bank raised its policy rate in line with expectations and signaled a faster pace of tightening over the coming years. The franc whipsawed as the Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate and deposit rate at record lows, as expected, and reiterated its pledge to wage currency market interventions. The yen fell as a unit of China Evergrande said it had reached an agreement with bond holders over an interest payment, reducing demand for haven assets. Turkey’s lira slumped toa record low against the dollar after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates. In commodities, crude futures drifted lower after a rangebound Asia session. WTI was 0.25% lower, trading near $72; Brent dips into the red, so far holding above $76. Spot gold adds $3.5, gentle reversing Asia’s losses to trade near $1,771/oz. Base metals are well bid with LME aluminum leading gains. Bitcoin steadied just below $44,000. Looking at the day ahead, we get the weekly initial jobless claims, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for August, and the Kansas City fed’s manufacturing activity index for September. From central banks, there’ll be a monetary policy decision from the Bank of England, while the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin and the ECB’s Elderson will also speak. From emerging markets, there’ll also be monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Finally in Germany, there’s an election debate with the lead candidates from the Bundestag parties. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 4,413.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 468.32 MXAP up 0.5% to 200.57 MXAPJ up 0.9% to 645.76 Nikkei down 0.7% to 29,639.40 Topix down 1.0% to 2,043.55 Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 24,510.98 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,642.22 Sensex up 1.4% to 59,728.37 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.0% to 7,370.22 Kospi down 0.4% to 3,127.58 German 10Y yield fell 5.6 bps to -0.306% Euro up 0.4% to $1.1728 Brent Futures up 0.3% to $76.39/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,768.25 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.33% to 93.16 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Financial regulators in Beijing issued a broad set of instructions to China Evergrande Group, telling the embattled developer to focus on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors while avoiding a near-term default on dollar bonds China’s central bank net-injected the most short- term liquidity in eight months into the financial system, with markets roiled by concerns over China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis Europe’s worst energy crisis in decades could drag deep into the cold months as Russia is unlikely to boost shipments until at least November Business activity in the euro area “markedly” lost momentum in September after demand peaked over the summer and supply chain bottlenecks hurt both services and manufacturers. Surveys of purchasing managers by IHS Markit showed growth in both sectors slowing more than expected, bringing overall activity to a five-month low. Input costs, meanwhile, surged to the highest in 21 years, according to the report The U.K. private sector had its weakest month since the height of the winter lockdown and inflation pressures escalated in September, adding to evidence that the recovery is running into significant headwinds, IHS Markit said The U.K.’s record- breaking debut green bond sale has given debt chief Robert Stheeman conviction on the benefits of an environmental borrowing program. The 10 billion-pound ($13.7 billion) deal this week was the biggest-ever ethical bond sale and the country is already planning another offering next month A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquaw Asian equity markets traded mostly positive as the region took its cue from the gains in US with the improved global sentiment spurred by some easing of Evergrande concerns and with stocks also unfazed by the marginally more hawkish than anticipated FOMC announcement (detailed above). ASX 200 (+1.0%) was underpinned by outperformance in the commodity-related sectors and strength in defensives, which have more than atoned for the losses in tech and financials, as well as helped markets overlook the record daily COVID-19 infections in Victoria state. Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) were also positive after another respectable liquidity operation by the PBoC and with some relief in Evergrande shares which saw early gains of more than 30% after recent reports suggested a potential restructuring by China’s government and with the Co. Chairman noting that the top priority is to help wealth investors redeem their products, although the majority of the Evergrande gains were then pared and unit China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle fully retraced the initial double-digit advances. KOSPI (-0.5%) was the laggard as it played catch up to the recent losses on its first trading day of the week and amid concerns that COVID cases could surge following the holiday period, while Japanese markets were closed in observance of the Autumnal Equinox Day. China Pumps $17 Billion Into System Amid Evergrande Concerns China Stocks From Property to Tech Jump on Evergrande Respite Philippines Holds Key Rate to Spur Growth Amid Higher Prices Taiwan’s Trade Deal Application Sets Up Showdown With China Top Asian News European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.9%) trade on the front-foot and have extended gains since the cash open with the Stoxx 600 now higher on the week after Monday’s heavy losses. From a macro perspective, price action in Europe has been undeterred by a slowdown in Eurozone PMIs which saw the composite metric slip to 56.1 from 59.0 (exp. 58.5) with IHS Markit noting “an unwelcome combination of sharply slower economic growth and steeply rising prices.” Instead, stocks in the region have taken the cue from a firmer US and Asia-Pac handover with performance in Chinese markets aided by further liquidity injections by the PBoC. Some positivity has also been observed on the Evergrande front amid mounting expectations of a potential restructuring at the company. That said, at the time of writing, it remains unclear what the company’s intentions are for repaying its USD 83.5mln onshore coupon payment. Note, ING highlights that “missing that payment today would still leave a 30-day grace period before this is registered as a default”. The most recent reports via WSJ indicate that Chinese authorities are asking local governments to begin preparations for the potential downfall of Evergrande; however, the article highlights that this is a last resort and Beijing is reluctant to step in. Nonetheless, this article has taken the shine off the mornings risk appetite, though we do remain firmer on the session. Stateside, as the dust settles on yesterday’s FOMC announcement, futures are firmer with outperformance in the RTY (+0.8% vs. ES +0.7%). Sectors in Europe are higher across the board with outperformance in Tech and Autos with the latter aided by gains in Faurecia (+4.6%) who sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 after making an unsurprising cut to its guidance, which will at least provide some clarity on the Co.’s near-term future; in sympathy, Valeo (+6.6) is also a notable gainer in the region. To the downside, Entain (+2.6%) sit at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after recent strong gains with the latest newsflow surrounding the Co. noting that MGM Resorts is considering different methods to acquire control of the BetMGM online gambling business JV, following the DraftKings offer for Entain, according to sources. The agreement between Entain and MGM gives MGM the ability to block any deal with competing businesses; MGM officials believe this grants the leverage to take full control of BetMGM without spending much. Top European News BOE Confronts Rising Prices, Slower Growth: Decision Guide La Banque Postale Eyes Retail, Asset Management M&A in Europe Activist Bluebell Raises Pressure on Glaxo CEO Walmsley Norway Delivers Rate Lift-Off With Next Hike Set for December In FX, not much bang for the Buck even though the FOMC matched the most hawkish market expectations and Fed chair Powell arguably went further by concluding in the post-meeting press conference that substantial progress on the lagging labour front is all but done. Hence, assuming the economy remains on course, tapering could start as soon as November and be completed my the middle of 2022, though he continued to play down tightening prospects irrespective of the more hawkish trajectory implied by the latest SEP dot plots that are now skewed towards at least one hike next year and a cumulative seven over the forecast horizon. However, the Greenback only managed to grind out marginally higher highs overnight, with the index reaching 93.526 vs 93.517 at best yesterday before retreating quite sharply and quickly to 93.138 in advance of jobless claims and Markit’s flash PMIs. CAD/NZD/AUD - The Loonie is leading the comeback charge in major circles and only partially assisted by WTI keeping a firm bid mostly beyond Usd 72/brl, and Usd/Cad may remain contained within 1.2796-50 ahead of Canadian retail sales given decent option expiry interest nearby and protecting the downside (1 bn between 1.2650-65 and 2.7 bn from 1.2620-00). Meanwhile, the Kiwi has secured a firmer grip on the 0.7000 handle to test 0.7050 pre-NZ trade and the Aussie is looking much more comfortable beyond 0.7250 amidst signs of improvement in the flash PMIs, albeit with the services and composite headline indices still some way short of the 50.0 mark. NOK/GBP/EUR/CHF - All firmer, and the Norwegian Crown outperforming following confirmation of the start of rate normalisation by the Norges Bank that also underscored another 25 bp hike in December and further tightening via a loftier rate path. Eur/Nok encountered some support around 10.1000 for a while, but is now below, while the Pound has rebounded against the Dollar and Euro in the run up to the BoE at midday. Cable is back up around 1.3770 and Eur/Gbp circa 0.8580 as Eur/Usd hovers in the low 1.1700 area eyeing multiple and a couple of huge option expiries (at the 1.1700 strike in 4.1 bn, 1.1730 in 1 bn, 1.1745-55 totalling 2.7 bn and 1.8 bn from 1.1790-1.1800). Note, Eurozone and UK flash PMIs did not live up to their name, but hardly impacted. Elsewhere, the Franc is lagging either side of 0.9250 vs the Buck and 1.0835 against the Euro on the back of a dovish SNB Quarterly Review that retained a high Chf valuation and necessity to maintain NIRP, with only minor change in the ordering of the language surrounding intervention. JPY - The Yen is struggling to keep its head afloat of 110.00 vs the Greenback as Treasury yields rebound and risk sentiment remains bullish pre-Japanese CPI and in thinner trading conditions due to the Autumn Equinox holiday. In commodities, WTI and Brent have been choppy throughout the morning in-spite of the broadly constructive risk appetite. Benchmarks spent much of the morning in proximity to the unchanged mark but the most recent Evergrande developments, via WSJ, have dampened sentiment and sent WTI and Brent back into negative territory for the session and printing incremental fresh lows at the time of publication. Back to crude, newsflow has once again centred around energy ministry commentary with Iraq making clear that oil exports will continue to increase. Elsewhere, gas remains at the forefront of focus particularly in the UK/Europe but developments today have been somewhat incremental. On the subject, Citi writes that Asia and Europe Nat. Gas prices could reach USD 100/MMBtu of USD 580/BOE in the winter, under their tail-risk scenario. For metals, its very much a case of more of the same with base-metals supportive, albeit off-best given Evergrande, after a robust APAC session post-FOMC. Given the gas issues, desks highlight that some companies are being forced to suspend/reduce production of items such as steel in Asian/European markets, a narrative that could become pertinent for broader prices if the situation continues. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are both modestly firmer but remain well within the range of yesterday’s session and are yet to recovery from the pressure seen in wake of the FOMC. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 320,000, prior 332,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.6m, prior 2.67m 8:30am: Aug. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.50, prior 0.53 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Composite PMI, prior 55.4 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Services PMI, est. 54.9, prior 55.1 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 61.0, prior 61.1 11am: Sept. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 25, prior 29 12pm: 2Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior $5t DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap My wife was at a parents event at school last night so I had to read three lots of bedtime stories just as the Fed were announcing their policy decision. Peppa Pig, Biff and Kipper, and somebody called Wonder Kid were interspersed with Powell’s press conference live on my phone. It’s fair to say the kids weren’t that impressed by the dot plot and just wanted to join them up. The twins (just turned 4) got their first reading book homework this week and it was a bit sad that one of them was deemed ready to have one with words whereas the other one only pictures. The latter was very upset and cried that his brother had words and he didn’t. That should create even more competitive tension! Back to the dots and yesterday’s Fed meeting was on the hawkish side in terms of the dots and also in terms of Powell’s confidence that the taper could be complete by mid-2022. Powell said that the Fed could begin tapering bond purchases as soon as the November FOMC meeting, in line with our US economists’ forecasts. He left some room for uncertainty, saying they would taper only “If the economy continues to progress broadly in line with expectations, and also the overall situation is appropriate for this.” However he made clear that “the timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff.” The quarterly “dot plot” showed that the 18 FOMC officials were split on whether to start raising rates next year or not. In June, the median dot indicated no rate increases until 2023, but now 6 members see a 25bps raise next year and 3 members see two such hikes. Their inflation forecasts were also revised up and DB’s Matt Luzzetti writes in his FOMC review (link here) that “If inflation is at or below the Fed's current forecast next year of 2.3% core PCE, liftoff is likely to come in 2023, consistent with our view. However, if inflation proves to be higher with inflation expectations continuing to rise, the first rate increase could well migrate into 2022.” Markets took the overall meeting very much in its stride with the biggest impact probably being a yield curve flattening even if US 10yr Treasury yields traded in just over a 4bp range yesterday and finishing -2.2bps lower at 1.301%. The 5y30y curve flattened -6.7bps to 95.6bps, its flattest level since August 2020, while the 2y10y curve was -4.2bps flatter. So the market seems to believe the more hawkish the Fed gets the more likely they’ll control inflation and/or choke the recovery. The puzzle is that even if the dots are correct, real Fed funds should still be negative and very accommodative historically for all of the forecasting period. As such the market has a very dim view of the ability of the economy to withstand rate hikes or alternatively that the QE technicals are overpowering everything at the moment. In equities, the S&P 500 was up nearly +1.0% 15 minutes prior to the Fed, and then rallied a further 0.5% in the immediate aftermath before a late dip look it back to +0.95%. The late dip meant that the S&P still has not seen a 1% up day since July 23. The index’s rise was driven by cyclicals in particular with energy (+3.17%), semiconductors (-2.20%), and banks (+2.13%) leading the way. Asian markets are mostly trading higher this morning with the Hang Seng (+0.69%), Shanghai Comp (+0.58%), ASX (+1.03%) and India’s Nifty (+0.81%) all up. The Kospi (-0.36%) is trading lower though and is still catching up from the early week holidays. Japan’s markets are closed for a holiday today. Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.25% while those on the Stoxx 50 are up +0.49%. There is no new news on the Evergrande debt crisis however markets participants are likely to pay attention to whether the group is able to make interest rate payment on its 5 year dollar note today after the group had said yesterday that it resolved a domestic bond coupon by negotiations which was also due today. As we highlighted in our CoTD flash poll conducted earlier this week, market participants are not too worried about a wider fallout from the Evergrande crisis and even the Hang Seng Properties index is up +3.93% this morning and is largely back at the levels before the big Monday sell-off of -6.69%. Overnight we have received flash PMIs for Australia which improved as parts of the country have eased the coronavirus restrictions. The services reading came in at 44.9 (vs. 42.9 last month) and the manufacturing print was even stronger at 57.3 (vs. 52.0 last month). Japan’s flash PMIs will be out tomorrow due to today’s holiday. Ahead of the Fed, markets had continued to rebound from their declines earlier in the week, with Europe’s STOXX 600 gaining +0.99% to narrowly put the index in positive territory for the week. This continues the theme of a relative outperformance among European equities compared to the US, with the STOXX 600 having outpaced the S&P 500 for 5 consecutive sessions now, though obviously by a slim margin yesterday. Sovereign bonds in Europe also posted gains, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.7bps), OATs (-1.0bps) and BTPs (-3.2bps) all moving lower. Furthermore, there was another tightening in peripheral spreads, with the gap in Italian 10yr yields over bunds falling to 98.8bps yesterday, less than half a basis point away from its tightest level since early April. Moving to fiscal and with Democrats seemingly unable to pass the $3.5 trillion Biden budget plan by Monday, when the House is set to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, Republican leadership is calling on their members to vote against the bipartisan bill in hopes of delaying the process further. While the there is still a high likelihood the measure will eventually get passed, time is becoming a factor. Congress now has just over a week to get a government funding bill through both chambers of congress as well as raise the debt ceiling by next month. Republicans have told Democrats to do the latter in a partisan manner and include it in the reconciliation process which could mean that a significant portion of the Biden economic agenda – mostly encapsulated in the $3.5 trillion over 10 year budget – may have to be cut down to get the entire Democratic caucus on board. Looking ahead, an event to watch out for today will be the Bank of England’s policy decision at 12:00 London time, where our economists write (link here) that they expect no change in the policy settings. However, they do expect a reaffirmation of the BoE’s updated forward guidance that some tightening will be needed over the next few years to keep inflation in check, even if it’s too early to expect a further hawkish pivot at this stage. Staying on the UK, two further energy suppliers (Avro Energy and Green Supplier) ceased trading yesterday amidst the surge in gas prices, with the two supplying 2.9% of domestic customers between them. We have actually seen a modest fall in European natural gas prices over the last couple of days, with the benchmark future down -4.81% since its close on Monday, although it’s worth noting that still leaves them up +75.90% since the start of August alone. There wasn’t much data to speak of yesterday, though US existing home sales fell to an annualised rate of 5.88 in August (vs. 5.89m expected). Separately, the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area unexpectedly rose to -4.0 in September (vs. -5.9 expected). To the day ahead now, the data highlights include the September flash PMIs from around the world, while in the US there’s the weekly initial jobless claims, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for August, and the Kansas City fed’s manufacturing activity index for September. From central banks, there’ll be a monetary policy decision from the Bank of England, while the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin and the ECB’s Elderson will also speak. From emerging markets, there’ll also be monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Finally in Germany, there’s an election debate with the lead candidates from the Bundestag parties. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 08:13.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 23rd, 2021

These Are The 10 Top Stock Holdings Of Paul Singer

Paul Singer is a hedge fund magnate, who founded Elliott Management in 1977 with $1.3 million. The hedge fund firm now has over $45 billion in assets under management. Though Singer has been diversifying the investments across a variety of assets, he is known for activist positions as well. His firm has pushed for changes […] Paul Singer is a hedge fund magnate, who founded Elliott Management in 1977 with $1.3 million. The hedge fund firm now has over $45 billion in assets under management. Though Singer has been diversifying the investments across a variety of assets, he is known for activist positions as well. His firm has pushed for changes at several companies, including Twitter, AT&T and SoftBank. Let’s take a look at the ten top stock holdings of Paul Singer. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Ten Top Stock Holdings Of Paul Singer We have referred to the latest 13F filing (as of June 30, 2021) of Elliott Management to come up with the ten top stock holdings of Paul Singer. Following are the ten top stock holdings of Paul Singer: Uniti Group Founded in 2014, it is a real estate investment trust company that deals in the acquisition and construction of mission infrastructure in the communications industry. Singer owns 20,475,739 shares of Uniti Group Inc (NASDAQ:UNIT), having a market value of more than $216 million and accounting for 1.64% of Elliott Management’s portfolio. Singer first invested in Uniti Group in Q3 2020. Uniti Group shares are up more than 9% YTD and over 21% in the past three months. E2open Parent Holdings Founded in February 2021, this company offers supply chain management software. Singer owns 27,973,575 shares of E2open Parent Holdings Inc (NYSE:ETWO), having a market value of more than $319 million and accounting for 2.42% of Elliott Management’s portfolio. Singer first invested in E2open Parent Holdings in Q1 2021. E2open Parent Holdings shares are up more than 8% YTD but are down over 3% in the past three months. It is headquartered in New York. Arconic Founded in 2019, this company makes aluminum sheet, plate, extrusions and architectural products. Singer owns 10,391,409 shares of Arconic Corp (NYSE:ARNC), having a market value of more than $370 million and accounting for 2.80% of Elliott Management’s portfolio. Singer first invested in Arconic in Q2 2020. Arconic shares are up more than 6% YTD but are down over 13% in the past three months. It is headquartered in Pittsburgh. Nielsen Holdings Founded in 1923, this company provides global marketing data collection and analytics services. Singer owns 16,600,000 shares of Nielsen Holdings PLC (NYSE:NLSN), having a market value of more than $409 million and accounting for 3.10% of Elliott Management’s portfolio. Singer first invested in Nielsen Holdings in Q3 2018. Nielsen Holdings shares are down more than 6% YTD and over 21% in the past three months. It is headquartered in New York. Peabody Energy Founded in 1883, this company is in the business of coal mining. Singer owns 27,124,787 shares of Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU), having a market value of more than $458 million and accounting for 3.47% of Elliott Management’s portfolio. Singer has recently reduced his stake in Peabody Energy. Peabody Energy shares are up more than 480% YTD and over 66% in the past three months. It is headquartered in St. Louis. Evergy Founded in 2017, this company offers electricity through its subsidiaries. Singer owns 10,541,914 shares of Evergy Inc (NYSE:EVRG), having a market value of more than $637 million and accounting for 4.82% of Elliott Management’s portfolio. Singer first invested in Evergy in Q4 2020. Evergy shares are up more than 13% YTD and over 2% in the past three months. Marathon Petroleum Founded in 1887, this company refines, markets and transports petroleum products. Singer owns 10,570,000 shares of Marathon Petroleum Corp (NYSE:MPC), having a market value of more than $638 million and accounting for 4.83% of Elliott Management’s portfolio. Singer first invested in Marathon Petroleum in Q2 2019. Marathon Petroleum shares are up more than 44% YTD but are down over 3% in the past three months. Twitter Founded in 2006, this company manages a micro-blogging platform that allows people to express themselves and have a conversation in real time. Singer owns 10,000,000 shares of Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR), having a market value of more than $688 million and accounting for 5.20% of Elliott Management’s portfolio. Singer first invested in Twitter in Q1 2020, and has significantly raised his stake in the company recently. Twitter shares are up more than 18% YTD but are down over 5% in the past three months. Howmet Aerospace Founded in 1888, this company offers engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries. Singer owns 41,065,000 shares of Howmet Aerospace Inc (NYSE:HWM), having a market value of more than $1,415 million and accounting for 10.71% of Elliott Management’s portfolio. Singer first invested in Howmet Aerospace in Q4 2015, and has marginally reduced his stake in the company recently. Howmet Aerospace shares are up more than 8% YTD but are down over 10% in the past three months. Dell Technologies Founded in 1984, this company offers information technology hardware, software, and service solutions. Singer owns 24,832,943 shares of Dell Technologies Inc (NYSE:DELL), having a market value of more than $2,475 million and accounting for 18.72% of Elliott Management’s portfolio. Singer first invested in Dell Technologies in Q4 2018. Dell Technologies shares are up more than 35% YTD and almost 1% in the past three months. It is headquartered in Round Rock, TX. Updated on Sep 23, 2021, 9:45 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 23rd, 2021