The Senate Judiciary Committee says it"s "watching" Ticketmaster as the battle for Beyoncé tickets begins

Keanu Reeves returns in "John Wick: Chapter 4." The movie is now playing only in theaters, but is expected to stream on Starz later this year. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Keanu Reeves reprises his role as the eponymous assassin in "John Wick: Chapter 4."Lionsgate "John Wick: Chapter 4" premiered exclusively in theaters on March 24. The action sequel stars Keanu Reeves as the movie's titular hitman John Wick. "John Wick: Chapter 4" is expected to stream on Starz later this year, and could hit VOD in May. John Wick (Keanu Reeves) is back for another round of stylish action and thrilling stunts on the big screen. The fourth entry in the franchise,"John Wick: Chapter 4," premiered exclusively in theaters on March 24. Following the events of "John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum" (2019), "Chapter 4" sees Wick take his battle against the criminal High Table organization global. As he seeks out the world's most powerful operatives, Wick attempts to  uncover a path toward defeating the secret council of crime lords.Check out the trailer for 'John Wick: Chapter 4'Keanu Reeves reprises his role as legendary hitman John Wick. Laurence Fishburne returns as the "Bowery King" and the late Lance Reddick is back as Charon. "John Wick: Chapter 4" also features Donnie Yen, Bill Skarsgård, Shamier Anderson, Rina Sawayama, Scott Adkins, and Ian McShane.Chad Stahelski directs "Chapter 4" from a script written by Shay Hatten and Michael Finch. Stahelski also directed the first three "John Wick" movies. How to watch 'John Wick: Chapter 4'"John Wick: Chapter 4" is now available to watch only in theaters, so you won't be able to rent or stream the flick at home just yet.In addition to standard showings, "John Wick: Chapter 4" is playing in IMAX and Dolby Cinema for premium prices. You can buy tickets to see "John Wick: Chapter 4" at local or national theater chains like AMC, Regal, or Cinemark directly from their platforms or through third-party vendors like Atom Tickets, Fandango, and MovieTickets.com.When will 'John Wick: Chapter 4' be available to stream?Lionsgate has yet to announce an official streaming release date for "John Wick: Chapter 4." However, the movie is expected to debut on Starz ($9/month) once it becomes available for subscription streaming.Unlike Disney or Universal movies, Lionsgate films don't typically arrive for streaming until several months after their theatrical releases. For example, Lionsgate's "The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent" hit Starz six months after it premiered in theaters. As such, "John Wick: Chapter 4" may not drop on Starz until late September.After its exclusive streaming window on Starz, "John Wick: Chapter 4" will hit Peacock due to a licensing deal Lionsgate struck with the subscription service. However, this likely won't occur until early 2024.While it may take a while for "John Wick: Chapter 4" to make its subscription streaming debut, the film could become available to rent or buy as early as May. Other recent Lionsgate movies, like "Alice Darling" and "Plane," became available to order on-demand at home within six weeks of their theatrical releases. Is 'John Wick 4' the last in the series?"John Wick: Chapter 4" will not be the last movie in the franchise. While another sequel has yet to be given the official greenlight, a fifth entry in the series is being developed.In addition, a spinoff movie titled "Ballerina" is already in postproduction. "Ballerina" stars Ana de Armas. A prequel TV show, called "The Continental," is being developed as well. "The Continental" is set to hit Peacock later this year.  Is 'John Wick: Chapter 4' worth watching?Keanu Reeves in "John Wick: Chapter 4."LionsgateBased on early reviews from critics, "John Wick: Chapter 4" should be well worth a watch for fans of the series and action movies in general. As of March 24, the sequel holds the highest Rotten Tomatoes score of the entire franchise with a "95% Certified Fresh" rating from critics. The movie is being praised as the franchise's best installment yet.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Circus Politics Are Intended To Distract Us. Don't Be Distracted Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute, “There is nothing more dangerous than a government of the many controlled by the few.” - Lawrence Lessig, Harvard law professor It is easy to be distracted right now by the bread and circus politics that have dominated the news headlines lately, but don’t be distracted. Don’t be fooled, not even a little. We’re being subjected to the oldest con game in the books, the magician’s sleight of hand that keeps you focused on the shell game in front of you while your wallet is being picked clean by ruffians in your midst. This is how tyranny rises and freedom falls. What characterizes American government today is not so much dysfunctional politics as it is ruthlessly contrived governance carried out behind the entertaining, distracting and disingenuous curtain of political theater. And what political theater it is, diabolically Shakespearean at times, full of sound and fury, yet in the end, signifying nothing. We are being ruled by a government of scoundrels, spies, thugs, thieves, gangsters, ruffians, rapists, extortionists, bounty hunters, battle-ready warriors and cold-blooded killers who communicate using a language of force and oppression. The U.S. government now poses the greatest threat to our freedoms. More than terrorism, more than domestic extremism, more than gun violence and organized crime, even more than the perceived threat posed by any single politician, the U.S. government remains a greater menace to the life, liberty and property of its citizens than any of the so-called dangers from which the government claims to protect us. No matter who has occupied the White House in recent years, the Deep State has succeeded in keeping the citizenry divided and at each other’s throats. After all, as long as we’re busy fighting each other, we’ll never manage to present a unified front against tyranny in any form. Unfortunately, what we are facing is tyranny in every form. The facts speak for themselves. We’re being robbed blind by a government of thieves. Americans no longer have any real protection against government agents empowered to seize private property at will. For instance, police agencies under the guise of asset forfeiture laws are taking Americans’ personal property based on little more than a suspicion of criminal activity and keeping it for their own profit and gain. In one case, police seized more than $17,000 in cash from two sisters who were trying to start a dog breeding business. Despite finding no evidence of wrongdoing, police held onto the money for months. Homeowners are losing their homes over unpaid property taxes (as little as $2300 owed) that amount to a fraction of what they have invested in their homes. And then there’s the Drug Enforcement Agency, which has been searching train and airline passengers and pocketing their cash, without ever charging them with a crime. We’re being taken advantage of by a government of scoundrels, idiots and cowards. Journalist H.L. Mencken calculated that “Congress consists of one-third, more or less, scoundrels; two-thirds, more or less, idiots; and three-thirds, more or less, poltroons.” By and large, Americans seem to agree. When you’ve got government representatives who spend a large chunk of their work hours fundraising, being feted by lobbyists, shuffling through a lucrative revolving door between public service and lobbying, and making themselves available to anyone with enough money to secure access to a congressional office, you’re in the clutches of a corrupt oligarchy. Mind you, these same elected officials rarely read the legislation they’re enacting, nor do they seem capable of enacting much legislation that actually helps the plight of the American citizen. More often than not, the legislation lands the citizenry in worse straits. We’re being locked up by a government of greedy jailers. We have become a carceral state, spending three times more on our prisons than on our schools and imprisoning close to a quarter of the world’s prisoners, despite the fact that crime is at an all-time low and the U.S. makes up only 5% of the world’s population. The rise of overcriminalization and profit-driven private prisons provides even greater incentives for locking up American citizens for such non-violent “crimes” as having an overgrown lawn. As the Boston Review points out, “America’s contemporary system of policing, courts, imprisonment, and parole … makes money through asset forfeiture, lucrative public contracts from private service providers, and by directly extracting revenue and unpaid labor from populations of color and the poor. In states and municipalities throughout the country, the criminal justice system defrays costs by forcing prisoners and their families to pay for punishment. It also allows private service providers to charge outrageous fees for everyday needs such as telephone calls. As a result people facing even minor criminal charges can easily find themselves trapped in a self-perpetuating cycle of debt, criminalization, and incarceration.” We’re being spied on by a government of Peeping Toms. The government, along with its corporate partners, is watching everything you do, reading everything you write, listening to everything you say, and monitoring everything you spend. Omnipresent surveillance is paving the way for government programs that profile citizens, document their behavior and attempt to predict what they might do in the future, whether it’s what they might buy, what politician they might support, or what kinds of crimes they might commit. The impact of this far-reaching surveillance, according to Psychology Today, is “reduced trust, increased conformity, and even diminished civic participation.” As technology analyst Jillian C. York concludes, “Mass surveillance without due process—whether undertaken by the government of Bahrain, Russia, the US, or anywhere in between—threatens to stifle and smother that dissent, leaving in its wake a populace cowed by fear.” We’re being ravaged by a government of ruffians, rapists and killers. It’s not just the police shootings of unarmed citizens that are worrisome. It’s the SWAT team raids gone wrong—more than 80,000 annually—that are leaving innocent citizens wounded, children terrorized and family pets killed. It’s the roadside strip searches—in some cases, cavity searches of men and women alike carried out in full view of the public—in pursuit of drugs that are never found. It’s the potentially lethal—and unwarranted—use of so-called “nonlethal” weapons such as tasers on children for “mouthing off to a police officer. For trying to run from the principal’s office. For, at the age of 12, getting into a fight with another girl.” We’re being forced to surrender our freedoms—and those of our children—to a government of extortionists, money launderers and professional pirates. The American people have repeatedly been sold a bill of goods about how the government needs more money, more expansive powers, and more secrecy (secret courts, secret budgets, secret military campaigns, secret surveillance) in order to keep us safe. Under the guise of fighting its wars on terror, drugs and now domestic extremism, the government has spent billions in taxpayer dollars on endless wars that have not ended terrorism but merely sown the seeds of blowback, surveillance programs that have caught few terrorists while subjecting all Americans to a surveillance society, and militarized police that have done little to decrease crime while turning communities into warzones. Not surprisingly, the primary ones to benefit from these government exercises in legal money laundering have been the corporations, lobbyists and politicians who inflict them on a trusting public. We’re being held at gunpoint by a government of soldiers: a standing army. As if it weren’t enough that the American military empire stretches around the globe (and continues to leech much-needed resources from the American economy), the U.S. government is creating its own standing army of militarized police and teams of weaponized, federal bureaucrats. These civilian employees are being armed to the hilt with guns, ammunition and military-style equipment; authorized to make arrests; and trained in military tactics. Among the agencies being supplied with night-vision equipment, body armor, hollow-point bullets, shotguns, drones, assault rifles and LP gas cannons are the Smithsonian, U.S. Mint, Health and Human Services, IRS, FDA, Small Business Administration, Social Security Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Education Department, Energy Department, Bureau of Engraving and Printing and an assortment of public universities. There are now reportedly more bureaucratic (non-military) government civilians armed with high-tech, deadly weapons than U.S. Marines. That doesn’t even begin to touch on the government’s arsenal, the transformation of local police into extensions of the military, and the speed with which the nation could be locked down under martial law depending on the circumstances. Whatever else it may be—a danger, a menace, a threat—the U.S. government is certainly no friend to freedom. To our detriment, the criminal class that Mark Twain mockingly referred to as Congress has since expanded to include every government agency that feeds off the carcass of our once-constitutional republic. The government and its cohorts have conspired to ensure that the only real recourse the American people have to hold the government accountable or express their displeasure with the government is through voting, which is no real recourse at all. Consider it: the penalties for civil disobedience, whistleblowing and rebellion are severe. If you refuse to pay taxes for government programs you believe to be immoral or illegal, you will go to jail. If you attempt to overthrow the government—or any agency thereof—because you believe it has overstepped its reach, you will go to jail. If you attempt to blow the whistle on government misconduct, you will go to jail. In some circumstances, if you even attempt to approach your elected representative to voice your discontent, you can be arrested and jailed. You cannot have a republican form of government—nor a democratic one, for that matter—when the government views itself as superior to the citizenry, when it no longer operates for the benefit of the people, when the people are no longer able to peacefully reform their government, when government officials cease to act like public servants, when elected officials no longer represent the will of the people, when the government routinely violates the rights of the people and perpetrates more violence against the citizenry than the criminal class, when government spending is unaccountable and unaccounted for, when the judiciary act as courts of order rather than justice, and when the government is no longer bound by the laws of the Constitution. We no longer have a government “of the people, by the people and for the people.” Rather, what we have is a government of wolves. For too long, the American people have obeyed the government’s dictates, no matter now unjust. We have paid its taxes, penalties and fines, no matter how outrageous. We have tolerated its indignities, insults and abuses, no matter how egregious. We have turned a blind eye to its indiscretions and incompetence, no matter how imprudent. We have held our silence in the face of its lawlessness, licentiousness and corruption, no matter how illicit. How long we will continue to suffer depends on how much we’re willing to give up for the sake of freedom. For the moment, the American people seem content to sit back and watch the reality TV programming that passes for politics today. It’s the modern-day equivalent of bread and circuses, a carefully calibrated exercise in how to manipulate, polarize, propagandize and control a population. As French philosopher Etienne de La Boétie observed half a millennium ago: “Plays, farces, spectacles, gladiators, strange beasts, medals, pictures, and other such opiates, these were for ancient peoples the bait toward slavery, the price of their liberty, the instruments of tyranny. By these practices and enticements the ancient dictators so successfully lulled their subjects under the yoke, that the stupefied peoples, fascinated by the pastimes and vain pleasures flashed before their eyes, learned subservience as naively, but not so creditably, as little children learn to read by looking at bright picture books.” The bait towards slavery. The price of liberty. The instruments of tyranny. Yes, that sounds about right. As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, “We the people” have learned only too well how to be slaves. Tyler Durden Thu, 03/23/2023 - 00:00.....»»

Anatomy Of A Cover-Up: The January 6 Tapes Authored by Julie Kelly via American Greatness, Tucker Carlson now has the equivalent of nearly five years of surveillance footage captured by U.S. Capitol Police security cameras on January 6, 2021. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) turned over the tapes to the Fox News host earlier this month, according to Axios. Carlson’s producers and researchers are already distilling the footage; the first round of clips is expected to air in a few weeks. While some grumble that McCarthy did not fulfill his promise to publicly release the footage—arguably a valid complaint—Carlson’s team undoubtedly will give the massive trove much-needed context and maximum impact. Carlson released a three-part documentary, “Patriot Purge,” in November 2021 that explained how the events of January 6 helped launch a second “war on terror” against American citizens out of step with the Biden regime. Since early 2021, Carlson has used his nightly show to expose the cruel treatment of Trump supporters suffering pretrial detention orders; raised questions about the use of undercover assets including FBI informants and the mysterious role of Ray Epps; asked why the case of the January 5 “pipe bomber” remains unsolved; and demanded the release of the surveillance video as late as last month. Releasing the video never should have been a political fight; after all, the footage was recorded on a taxpayer-paid closed circuit television system installed on public property to monitor public employees. Contrary to arguments by Capitol Police and the Justice Department, the video belongs to the public, not federal agencies. But both entities, with the help of D.C. District Court judges, have successfully kept the trove largely under wraps for more than two years. Even the FBI and D.C. Metropolitan Police departments signed agreements a few days after the Capitol protest to acknowledge that the tapes technically belonged to Capitol Police. In a sworn statement filed in March 2021, Thomas DiBiase, general counsel for the Capitol Police, insisted the footage constituted “security information” that required very limited access. “Our concern is that providing unfettered access to hours of extremely sensitive information to defendants who already have shown a desire to interfere with the democratic process will . . . [be] passed on to those who might wish to attack the Capitol again,” DiBiase warned. The Justice Department subsequently designated the tapes as “highly sensitive” government material subject to protective orders in January 6 prosecutions. It’s been a major battle for defendants and their attorneys to properly access all of the video tied to their cases; defendants cannot watch any clips without the presence of a legal authority and none of the footage can be shared or downloaded. Of course, there have been some exceptions. Capitol Police shared cherry-picked clips with the House Democrats on the second impeachment committee as well as the January 6 select committee. For example, the brief clip of Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) running through a hallway that afternoon presumably after the breach was produced from surveillance video. HBO also accessed surveillance footage for its slanted documentary on January 6. “Security” concerns, my foot. Imagine the universal outrage in any other situation had crucial video of what the government considered a terror attack been kept away from the public for more than two years. Influential opinion pages would have banged the drum incessantly for its release, insisting some sort of cover up was unfolding. Progressive activist groups and elected officials would demand a full accounting of what happened before, during, and after the “attack,” including all government-produced evidence. Influential lawyers and legal defense funds would lament the deprivation of due process for those involved in the allegedly heinous act. Instead, the usual defenders of accountability, transparency, and constitutional rights have been completely AWOL. The fight has been waged by outmatched defense attorneys in the rigged legal and judicial system in the nation’s capital. And a handful of influencers like Carlson. To be fair, a consortium called the Press Coalition forced a few federal judges to lift protective orders on a small amount of surveillance video. Representing more than a dozen major news companies, the coalition successfully won the release of limited security footage that, in some instances, contradicted the assertion that police did not allow protesters into the building that afternoon. Unsealed video also showed how police brutalized women inside the lower west terrace tunnel. In a laughable “reality check” in his article, Axios reporter Mike Allen suggested the public has seen enough surveillance video since the “Jan. 6 committee played numerous excerpts of the footage at last year’s captivating hearings.” But not only were most of the evidentiary video clips sourced from protesters’ cell phones, the surveillance video clips offered by the committee represented an infinitesimal sliver of the total collection. Which, notably, is much bigger than what the government has made available to January 6 defendants. Axios reported that Carlson’s team has 41,000 hours of raw footage—nearly three times the amount that the Justice Department allowed into evidence, which only covered the time period between noon and 8:00 p.m. on January 6. The tapes now in Carlson’s possession apparently covers the entire 24-hour period from “multiple camera angles from all over Capitol grounds.” One can only guess what the videos will reveal. It’s possible, even likely, the never-before-seen footage will show the elements of a preplanned attack engineered by the same political and government forces that attempted to destroy Donald Trump for the better part of six years. Will the tapes finally answer the questions that top law enforcement officials such as FBI Director Christopher Wray refuse to answer and the January 6 select committee buried—not the least of which was the role of the FBI? Withholding the video is only one part of the massive cover-up about January 6. Republicans should seek similar demands for records, emails, and communications from Capitol Police to expose the full scope of the cover-up. But like all good political scandals, the path to the truth begins with the tapes. Tyler Durden Tue, 02/21/2023 - 23:40.....»»

The new "Ant-Man" movie marks the start of Phase Five of the MCU. Here are the Marvel films and series you should stream before you see "Quantumania." When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Paul Rudd as Scott Lang/Ant-Man and Jonathan Majors as Kang the Conqueror in "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania."Jay Maidment/Marvel Studios "Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania" premieres in theaters on February 17.  The film will kick off Phase Five of the MCU, and introduce supervillain Kang the Conqueror.  "Quantumania" is expected to tie into past Marvel shows and movies, including "Loki" and "Endgame." The fifth phase of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) will kick off on the the big screen with "Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania." The highly anticipated sequel to "Ant-Man" and "Ant-Man and The Wasp" debuts exclusively in theaters on February 17. In the new film, the superhero duo explores the Quantum Realm with Hank Pym, Janet Van Dyne, and Cassie Lang. On their journey, the family discovers new creatures and enemies, setting them off on a mission that pushes them beyond anything they've experienced before.Check out the trailer for 'Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania'Paul Rudd, Evangeline Lilly, Michael Douglas, and Michelle Pfeiffer all reprise their roles from the previous "Ant-Man'' movie. The film also features Kathryn Newton as an older version of Cassie Lang, Ant-Man's daughter, and features the MCU debut of the time-traveling supervillain Kang the Conqueror (Jonathan Majors). Many characters in "Quantumania" first appeared in other Marvel titles, and the studio is known to feature connections to past films and shows in their latest movies. So, it's likely that "Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania" will pick up on several storylines that have already been introduced in the MCU. If you're interested in catching up on previous Marvel films and shows that are expected to tie into the new Ant-Man movie, we've got you covered. Below, we rounded up every Marvel title we consider essential viewing before you see "Quantumania." All of our picks are available to stream on Disney Plus ($8/month) right now.'Ant-Man' (2015)Scott Lang (Paul Rudd) suited up as Ant-Man.MarvelStream "Ant-Man" on Disney Plus. The first "Ant-Man" movie is of course a must-see before watching the latest sequel. The film introduces the title character, as well as other central characters like Dr. Hank Pym (Michael Douglas) and Hope Van Dyne (Evangeline Lilly). In "Ant-Man," Hank Pym recruits and trains master thief Scott Lang (Paul Rudd) to become the miniature hero. But when the doctor's former protégé tries to steal the secret to Ant-Man's super suit, the pair must pull off a heist to save the world.'Captain America: Civil War' (2016)Paul Rudd and Chris Evans in "Captain America: Civil War."Disney/MarvelStream "Captain America: Civil War" on Disney Plus.Ant-Man's second appearance on the big screen is in "Captain America: Civil War," which came out about a year after the character's MCU debut. In the movie, a civil war erupts between the Avengers, which sees Ant-Man join Captain America in a battle against Iron Man. Though Falcon (Anthony Mackie) had a brief cameo in the first "Ant-Man" movie, "Civil War" features Ant-Man's introduction to the rest of the Avengers and gives audiences their first look at how the character fits in with the rest of the team.'Ant-Man and The Wasp' (2018)Evangeline Lilly and Paul Rudd in "Ant-Man and the Wasp."MarvelStream "Ant-Man and The Wasp" on Disney Plus. "Ant-Man and The Wasp" picks up two years after "Captain America: Civil War." It begins with Ant-Man in the last days of house arrest as a result of his role in helping Captain America. The movie marks the first time that The Wasp and Ant-Man unite as a superhero duo. While Scott Lang tries to balance his civilian life, fatherhood, and his responsibilities as Ant-Man, Hope van Dyne and Hank Pym enlist his help with an urgent mission. The film also reveals more information about the Quantum Realm, the miniature world that Ant-Man travels to when he shrinks, and it includes a lot of details that will likely come into play in "Quantumania."'Avengers: Endgame' (2019)The Hulk, Ant-Man, Rocket Raccoon, and War Machine in "Avengers: Endgame"Marvel StudiosStream "Avengers: Endgame" on Disney Plus. "Avengers: Endgame" solidifies Ant-Man's place as an official Avenger, and features the character's last big-screen appearance before "Quantumania." As the Avengers attempt to resurrect their fallen allies, Ant-Man's skills play a crucial role when he helps devise a plan to travel through time using the Quantum Realm.The aftermath of "Endgame" will tie directly into Ant-Man's motivations in "Quantumania," as the character will be dealing with the fallout of being trapped in the Quantum Realm for five years. 'Loki' (2021)Jonathan Majors as a version of Kang in the season one finale of "Loki."Disney Plus/MarvelStream "Loki" on Disney Plus. Though Ant-Man doesn't make an appearance in this Disney Plus series, the show does feature some key connections to Kang the Conqueror, who will be the main villain in "Quantumania." An alternate version of Kang, known as "He Who Remains," debuts at the end of "Loki" season one.Though Kang is technically a different character, actor Johnathan Majors plays both roles and the backstory of "He Who Remains" is closely tied to Kang. The finale of "Loki" also deals heavily with the concept of the multiverse, which is a key part of Kang's story and is likely to come into play in "Quantumania." Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Here's What Happens To Society When The System Fails Authored by Fabiann Ommar via The Organic Prepper blog, When the system begins to fail, society can quickly crumble. Two such events have occurred recently... Let’s reflect on the Brumadinho mining dam disaster and see about the recent cartel attack in Culiacán, Mexico, in order to discuss how these kinds of events can affect our daily lives, particularly during times of crisis. In his work, Selco explains what occurs to individuals and society as a whole when the system completely fails. He’s unmatched and possibly one of the greatest sources to look at because of how effectively his blunt and honest style is to convey the drama and urgency of the unthinkable.  I haven’t experienced a civil war, but I can speak about other SHTFs, such as Thirdworldization, or crime that occurs when a crisis arises. The recent events in Mexico serve as the ideal illustration. The Brazilian uprising of January 8th took place as I was just beginning to write about it, so the immediacy of the situation took priority. However, here’s the quick rundown:  The Sinaloa Cartel launched a significant offensive against the Mexican government and military in the first week of January in response to the detention of their leader. “Mexican authorities have captured Ovidio Guzmán, a son of incarcerated drugs kingpin Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, prompting a wave of retaliatory attacks from cartel gunmen in the northern city of Culiacán. After a night of violence, gunmen exchanged fire with security forces, blocking roads with burning vehicles and shooting at army helicopters and police aeroplanes bringing reinforcements to the city. According to one resident, heavy fighting raged for hours after Guzmán – a key figure in the Sinaloa cartel since the arrest of his father – was arrested in the city early on Thursday.” [source] (If a few good books about this topic are TLDR, but you still want a broad view on this, I advise watching the Netflix’s original series Narcos. It’s Hollywood, so a little dramatized for entertainment, but it still gives a good outline of the major players and events.)  A well-armed, organized, numerous, and deadly gang of criminals put on a massive and scary exhibition of strength and firepower. You’ve probably seen the videos making the rounds on social media and in the news, of passengers trying to take cover from the gunfire inside of an airplane, sicarios attempting to take down helicopters, groups firing heavy artillery towards the troops in the streets and avenues, and drug soldiers raiding homes.  An entire region of a democratic nation was in dread as a result of the Sinaloa Cartel offensive to put pressure on the government and force the release of Guzmán. The estimated death toll from the conflict is 19 accused cartel gunmen and 11 members of the military and law enforcement.  I’ve witnessed enough cartel activity to know that there are generally many more ‘unofficial’ victims and collateral in these drug wars, so I’m sure there are more to add to that total. It’s still ongoing, too, I’m sure – just not as openly as it has been.  The fact that such savagery produced significant stir in a populace accustomed to the cartels and their ways says something about the ferocity of the struggle, even though it may startle my first-world colleagues. Not to mention that it all took place not far from the US.  Think of that for a moment: paramilitary criminal groups directly attacking the government of a sizable democratic state.  And this is not unprecedented. Something similar occurred in Brazil over two decades ago. In May 2006, the PCC – also known as First Command of Capital, a well-known criminal organization – unleashed a wave of violent attacks against the police and government officials and buildings. That happened in São Paulo, the wealthiest state in Brazil and the 16th in the world.  The gang instigated a mutiny in 76 jails to oppose the transfer of more than 700 of its members to highest security prisons. Then, street members were ordered to indiscriminately target police, police stations, state prosecutors, and other authorities. The forces responded by sending out a full contingent to confront the assailants.  Wild rumors and curfew announcements kept the terrified population indoors. Buses did not leave the garages (more than 40 were set on fire), and shops, schools, and businesses remained closed. My city, which has 13 million residents and is the biggest in Brazil, had deserted streets for days. At the end of the attack, there were 60 agents and 500 civilian casualties (PCC members and other suspects), and more than a hundred were injured. In ten days only.  About organized crime.  It’s enormous, it’s all around us, growing in the underground. Most of the time, we only see and hear about it when something of magnitude erupts, or if we investigate it. Some individuals don’t even know it exists, how it functions, how powerful and pervasive, as well as how deadly it can be. They think it’s like in the movies, but it’s very different in reality.  When everything is normal, mafias, cartels and other organized criminal operations stay more or less contained and operating mainly underground. They keep expanding and filtering into civil society through corruption or threats (plata o plomo – silver or lead). But also in more surreptitious, sophisticated, and “official” ways, such as financing everything from the election of local leaderships and politicians to the graduation of lawyers and promotion of DAs. Tax revenue falls during a slump. Institutions deteriorate as a result of underfunding of the governmental apparatus. Of course, this also applies to the crime-fighting infrastructure. Criminals feel empowered and come out, making the situation worse. Though it has money and power, organized crime is not listed in the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq. That is to say, crime always tends to increase during economic downturns.  Why is this relevant?  If you watched the videos of the sicarios fighting the forces in the streets of Jesús María, Mazatlán or Los Mochis; or if you follow the actions of drug cartels, mafias and other criminal organizations in the real world, you probably know the answer to that question already. If not, let me explain it: There’s a huge contingent of organized groups out there whose routines are a constant of firearms, violence, deception, and bloodshed. These people practice with guns daily on real targets; their “range” is the city’s streets. The idea that normal people will be dealing with untrained neighbors (or even trained ones) coming solo or in groups to their doors food in case SHTF is a fantasy for the most part. I’m not referring to regular people turning violent due to hunger or despair or psychopaths wreaking havoc on the broken society. These criminals are all that and more, but they’re also merciless warriors accustomed to a routine of danger, confrontation, and death. It’s not that they’re capable of violence: all they know is violence. For them, it’ll be business as usual whether the system stays up or breaks down.  It’s a constant war for turf, money, narcotics, power, and plenty more.  And this battle is vicious and ferocious, bestial even – a blend of modern warfare, where the most advanced equipment money can buy gets mixed up with medieval tactics. It’s the sicarios trying to knock down a Black Hawk with anti-aircraft 0.50 and M134 miniguns, side-by-side with beheadings, dismemberments, and other horrible activities routinely employed to punish and apply lessons, instill terror on the adversary, or simply display brutality, audacity and savagery. A typical punishment is the “microwave oven”, which consists of putting the snitch or enemy inside a pile of old car tires and set them ablaze.  That may seem overly graphic, but it’s the reality. There are entire populations living on the fringe (of cities, of society) immersed in this. When a group of gangsters raid your house or come for you for whatever, you know it’s hit the fan. You have no options, and no one to ask for help.  Organized crime won’t go away.  It’s a world with very different laws and rules, like any place where the system is failing, from economic, moral, and social decadence, inside the world we all live in. More important, as Thirdworldization pushes on everywhere, the various implications of organized crime will reach closer to the ordinary citizen. Here’s another example. January 25th marks the fourth anniversary of the collapse of the Brumadinho mining reject dam in Brazil’s southeastern state of Minas Gerais. “It felt like being inside a giant blender.” Alessandra de Souza, 43, was preparing lunch with her family when they heard a loud blast splitting the air. The noise echoed through the valley and was heard by Luiz de Castro while he was working in the mining complex.  “I was twisting and turning uncontrollably and getting crushed by rocks, sticks, cars, parts of houses, and everything that came crashing down, breaking people, animals, and everything in its path.” Luiz de Castro was installing lamps at the mining complex when he heard a massive bang from a close distance. He thought it was a truck tire popping or something, but his friend knew better. “No, it’s not that!” the friend said. “Run!” Dashing up a staircase, caked in mud and pelted by flying rocks, Castro clambered to safety. He watched as a tsunami of mud swallowed and buried alive 157 of his co-workers sitting in the cafeteria. It took rescue workers days to reach them. The deluge of toxic mud stretched for five miles, crushing everything on its path: homes, offices, animals, and people. (Excerpts from a NYT article by Shasta Darlington, James Glanz, Manuela Andreoni, Matthew Bloch, Sergio Peçanha, Anjali Singhvi, and Troy Griggs.) A true SHTF and a terrible tragedy, but hardly a surprise.  The mudslide – 11.7 million cubic meters of mining waste, the equivalent of almost 5,000 Olympic swimming pools – advanced quickly through the mine’s offices, resulting in 270 dead (259 officially confirmed and 11 still missing). Minas Gerais is Brazil’s second-largest producer, and there are almost fifty dams built like the one that failed — enormous reservoirs of mining waste held back by little more than walls of sand and silt. And all but four of the country’s 87 dams have been rated by the government as equally vulnerable or worse. Even more troubling is the fact that 27 of them are situated upstream above towns or cities with a population of over 100,000. It’s a massive warning sign, yet nobody notices until something bad happens. A similar catastrophe that occurred in 2015 resulted in the deaths of 19 individuals and the contamination of 12 cities along the Rio Doce valley—two significant failures in just three years.  Thirdworldization and the making of SHTF.  A crude and cheaply built reservoir of mining waste sitting upstream of a major community has all the ingredients for an SHTF. The warning indicators of the presence of structural problems that could cause a collapse were ignored by the mining corporations and the authorities, and the monitoring systems had stopped working.  Brazil is a large exporting nation and had been benefiting greatly from the 2000s commodities boom, which saw industrial giants like China devouring critical commodities like metals, grains, and everything they could get their hands on to support a string of two-digit GDP growth. Mining industries were accelerating their expansion plans and operating at full throttle, without much rigorous oversight or restriction from the part of authorities, while everyone was benefiting from record exports and significant inflows of foreign investment. Brumadinho is yet another tragic illustration of how an undesirable combination of large and powerful (i.e., influential) companies operating in a substandard, inefficient, and corrupt “thirdworldized” environment and can result in disasters with nasty consequences.  The crisis keeps brewing.  The US congress should be debating the debt ceiling yet again about the time this post goes live. Depending on the way this turns, the decisions will have a vast array of consequences, from moderate to severe, now and in the future. This impasse has been recurrent and ever more tense, another sign of financial and political crisis – or more ThirdWorldization.  The US is, in fact, bankrupt. My country is, too. Europe is also in financial trouble. Japan, the United Kingdom, and, very likely China are as well. Everybody is drowning in debt: countries, corporations, businesses, families, and people. Though that hasn’t yet had a significant effect on the system, it has been boiling and showing occasionally.  There are countless levels of “broke,” and I could delve into this subject as I have in the past, but to emphasize that crucial contrast one more time: SHTF never hits the same way everywhere. Said differently, life in a “broke” nation that holds the world’s reserve currency (and a sizable army to back it up), or one with high-speed trains and highways, and stronger institutions will never be the same as in a place without these things.  That doesn’t mean, though, that more developed nations won’t be affected.  They will because: 1) the crisis is global; 2) everything is interconnected; and: 3) there are many ways this can happen. I’ve presented two in this article, but SHTF can also result from things like mass migration, authoritarianism, terrorism, pervasive corruption, a shortage of energy, and more.  I’m not really saying anything new. A major conflict might result from all those crises. That has been the elites’ go-to response in the past, so who knows. Up until that, it will be a steady slide into a situation where institutions get overwhelmed, infrastructure deteriorates, workers cross their arms, and criminals feel empowered.  To be sure, SHTF happens; however, when a crisis is present, it happens more frequently, and the repercussions are typically more serious and widespread. That results from the system becoming increasingly unstable and handicapped. We can talk about ways to prepare and overcome that, but until then, remain vigilant and stay safe. *  *  * Fabian Ommar is the author of Street Survivalism: A Practical Training Guide To Life In The City and The Ultimate Survival Gear Handbook Tyler Durden Fri, 01/27/2023 - 22:25.....»»

McCarthy said earlier on Tuesday that he won't give up on seeking the top job. Additional votes will be needed to elect him as speaker. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) receives applause from fellow Representatives at the start of the 118th Congress on January 3, 2023.Win McNamee/Getty Images Rep. Kevin McCarthy is fighting an uphill battle to become House speaker. On Tuesday, he lost an initial ballot for the top post. Nineteen Republicans voted against McCarthy's bid for speaker. Embattled Republican leader Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday kicked off the 118th Congress by losing the initial ballot to become House speaker, ushering in a chaotic start to the GOP-led chamber as hardline conservatives, who insist they can't trust him, blocked his bid.Nineteen of McCarthy's colleagues voted against handing him control of the chamber they collectively flipped in November, torpedoing the nine-term California Republican's quickest path to victory in the narrowly divided House.Those opposed to McCarthy put forth a number of names for the top post, including Reps. Andy Biggs of Arizona, Jim Jordan of Ohio and Jim Banks of Indiana, among others.The procedural slap-in-the-face automatically bumps McCarthy into the fraternity of House speakers who needed to do more horse-trading in order to sew up their own contested candidacies. The vote also marks the first time in 100 years that the House failed to elect a speaker on an initial ballot. The death of Democratic Rep. Donald McEachin in late November dropped the number of lawmakers in the House to 434 members — which means McCarthy still needs 218 votes to get promoted outright. After spending months offering detractors like protest candidate Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona and anti-McCarthy agitator Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida just about anything they want in exchange for a glidepath to his dream job, McCarthy's instead seen the chorus of naysayers actually snowball. Nine others — including congressional newcomers Republicans Eli Crane of Arizona, Anna Paulina Luna of Florida, and Andy Ogles of Tennessee — joined the fray on Sunday, signing off on a joint letter shooting down McCarthy's latest peace offerings. Ahead of the first vote on Tuesday, McCarthy lashed out at House Republicans who he said recently tried to do some arm-twisting of their own by demanding plum committee assignments and bigger budgets from him. "I will always fight to put the American people first, not a few individuals who want something for themselves," McCarthy told reporters after a contentious conference-wide meeting at the US Capitol, adding: "I'm not going anywhere."McCarthy earlier on Tuesday said that he won't give up on seeking the top job, suggesting additional votes may take place to elect him, which could drag out the process for an uncertain amount of time.The drama unfolds as the 118th Congress begins on Tuesday, welcoming 82 new members. Lawmakers, however, cannot take their oaths of office until a House speaker is elected. "I have the record for the longest speech ever on the floor," McCarthy told reporters. "I don't have a problem getting a record for the most votes for speaker too."  McCarthy supporter Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia joined in on the internecine sniping, fuming that Gaetz, Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania and other anti-McCarthy members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus were dooming her best shot at getting assigned to the committees she wants after House Democrats stripped her of panel seats in the previous session. "I'm the only Republican who has zero committees," she said earlier Tuesday, according to CNN. Here are the 19 Republicans who voted against McCarthy:Andy Biggs of ArizonaDan Bishop of North CarolinaLauren Boebert of ColoradoJosh Brecheen of OklahomaMichael Cloud of TexasAndrew Clyde of GeorgiaEli Crane of ArizonaMatt Gaetz of FloridaBob Good of VirginiaPaul Gosar of ArizonaAndy Harris of MarylandAnna Paulina Luna of FloridaMary Miller of IllinoisRalph Norman of South CarolinaAndy Ogles of TennesseeScott Perry of PennsylvaniaMatt Rosendale of MontanaChip Roy of TexasKeith Self of Texas Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Gov. Ron DeSantis, 44, is being sworn in for a second term, where he'll have a supportive Republican supermajority in the Florida legislature. Then-Florida Governor-elect Ron DeSantis, left, arrives with his wife Casey during an inauguration ceremony, Tuesday, January 8, 2019, in Tallahassee, Florida.Lynne Sladky/AP Photo DeSantis is being sworn in for his second term on January 3 in Tallahassee.  Lots of onlookers will be watching for signs of his national political aspirations.  Numerous events are scattered over the week, including a Carbone-catered dinner and a ball.  The political world will be watching Tallahassee this week as Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida prepares to kick off his second term. The governor will take the oath of office on the steps of the Historic Capitol on Tuesday at noon, and several other events will be scattered in Florida's capital over two days. Eagle-eyed viewers will be closely watching for signs of DeSantis' national ambitions. DeSantis is a favorite to run for the GOP nomination in 2024 behind former President Donald Trump, who made his White House bid official on November 15. "When he gives his speech I think that speech — although it will be for Florida — may be telling his projections for 2024," Jennifer Carroll, who was lieutenant governor under former GOP Gov. Rick Scott, told Insider. "For the inauguration, that would be the thing to look for: What is he going to say in the speech? What is going to be the delivery and the tone?"The inauguration festivities formally kicked off Monday evening with a candlelight cocktail hour and dinner, which was catered by Carbone, the trendy Italian-American restaurant that has a location in Miami Beach.The dinner included Carbone's famous spicy rigatoni vodka, and between 250 to 300 people attended, according to a source in attendance who spoke on condition of anonymity.DeSantis and Jeff Zalaznick, co-owner of Carbone parent company Major Food Group, made remarks, the source said. On Tuesday, after the noon swearing-in on the steps of the Historic Capitol, Florida first lady Casey DeSantis will hold "A Toast to One Million Mamas," in recognition of the 1.1 million women she mobilized in support of her husband. The final event of the two-day bash is the inaugural ball, which typically takes place at the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center. The DeSantises want guests to stay late and dance at the ball, and got a band to perform, said a person briefed on the planning who spoke on condition of anonymity. Five people who donated $1 million will get the "inaugural chair" designation and access to multiple inaugural events, according to a breakdown of sponsorship packages obtained by Politico. The overarching theme is "The Free State of Florida," the Florida Standard first reported."The Free State of Florida" is a motto mirroring DeSantis' 2022 campaign theme. Ahead of Election Day, his campaign ran ads titled "My Florida Story" that featured people talking about how the governor's policies on COVID-19, when he pushed to keep schools and workplaces open.DeSantis carried the state by nearly 20 points on Election Day against former Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist. The victory was a stunning turnaround for the governor, who won his first gubernatorial race by just 33,000 votes. During his second term, DeSantis will have a supportive supermajority in the Republican legislature. So far, DeSantis pledged to undo sales taxes on certain items and pitched a plan to make it more difficult for teachers to enroll and stay in unions. He has called his priorities for the 2022 session his "Freedom Agenda." DeSantis, 44, is currently the youngest state governor in the US, though he's about to be unseated from that designation by Gov.-elect Sarah Huckabee Sanders in Arkansas, who is 40. Over the course of his two-day inauguration, lobbying offices and law firms also are expected to have their own events in Florida's capital. Officials stand on stage during an inauguration ceremony where Ron DeSantis was sworn in as Florida Governor, Tuesday, January 8, 2019, in Tallahassee, Florida.Lynne Sladky/AP PhotoInauguration tickets raise funds for the Republican Party of Florida The funds collected from ticket sales for the various official inauguration events will go toward the Republican Party of Florida. Under state law, individuals and corporations don't have limits as to how much they can contribute to state political parties or committees. The inaugural chairs for the event, The Florida Standard reported, are Brian Ballard of Ballard Partners; Nick Iarossi of Capital City Consulting; Bill Rubin of Rubin Turnbull & Associates; and Jeff Hartley of Smith, Bryan & Myers. "Both the Governor and First Lady oversaw every detail," Hartley told Insider of the forthcoming inauguration. "It was put together in a tight timeframe with a small staff who did an unbelievable job of pulling it all together over the holidays."Five donors who paid $1 million for tickets will get to attend the candlelight dinner and the ball, receive prime seats to the swearing-in, be able to take a photo with the governor, and get two tickets each to "A Toast to One Million Mamas," according to Politico.The toast is taking the place of what has traditionally been a tea with the first lady, according to a Republican strategist who spoke on condition of anonymity to protect invitee information. The event is expected to celebrate DeSantis' successful endorsements of school board candidates who align with his agenda and to include members of the conservative "Moms for Liberty" group. Guests of the governor for various events will include conservative media influencers, three people told Insider. Major fundraising is typical for an inauguration, whether it be at the state or federal level. Numerous corporations that do business with the federal government also helped bankroll President Joe Biden's made-for-TV inauguration celebrations, Insider reported.DeSantis released a partial list of donors in 2019 that included now-political foe Disney and the private prison company the GEO Group.This inauguration, DeSantis is considering turning down donations from Big Tech companies, The New York Times reported. DeSantis himself has become a prolific fundraiser who shattered records for a gubernatorial campaign, according to the money-in-politics nonpartisan research organization OpenSecrets. His political action committee, Friends of Ron DeSantis, raised nearly $206 million as of November 2, according to the Florida Department of State Division of Elections. During Tuesday's ceremony, DeSantis is expected to appear alongside his wife and Lieutenant Governor Jeanette Nuñez.Other top Florida officials also tend to appear at the inauguration, including the attorney general, the chief financial officer, and the commissioner of agriculture. The 2023 gubernatorial inauguration is the same day as the start of the new Congress up in Washington, DC, so not all of the Florida delegation will be attending.Rep. Byron Donalds' spokesman, Harrison Fields, said the congressman couldn't attend "due to his commitment in DC.""I support Governor DeSantis and am honored to have been invited to his inauguration," GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida told Insider. "Unfortunately, I have other pressing business in Washington on January 3rd."Emails inquiring about attendance were sent to the offices of other Republican members of the Florida delegation, including now-Sen. Rick Scott, Sen. Marco Rubio, as well as Rep. Brian Mast, were not answered in time for deadline. An email sent to a representative for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush also was not met with a response. Then-Florida Gov.-elect Ron DeSantis, right, and his wife Casey wave to supporters as they walk onto the stage after he was declared the winner of the election at his party Tuesday, November 6, 2018, in Orlando, Florida.Phelan M. Ebenhack/AP PhotoEvery inauguration has a different focus and eventsDeSantis' 2019 inauguration had roughly 3,000 guests in attendance, according to The Naples Daily News.That inauguration included an appreciation event for military veterans and first responders at the Tallahassee Automobile Museum and a legislative luncheon at the state Capitol. The event was a nod to DeSantis' experience given that he is a veteran who was a lawyer for the Navy. The events from the last inauguration also included a breakfast at Goodwood Museum in Tallahassee to recognize Nuñez as the highest-ranking Hispanic woman elected in Florida history.When DeSantis was first sworn in in 2019, he and his wife opted not to hold a traditional inaugural parade. Instead, they held their son Mason's baptism at the governor's mansion with water they collected from the Sea of Galilee during a trip to Israel, according to The Tampa Bay Times."The pomp and circumstance is fine, but ultimately this is about putting the pedal to the metal," the governor told the Associated Press about opting not to have a parade. There will be no parade in Tallahassee in 2023, either. The inauguration for Scott — who was DeSantis' predecessor in the governor's mansion, did include a parade. Asked by Insider to talk about Florida inaugurations, Scott smiled as he recounted his first swearing-in over a decade ago."It's fun. We had a parade," Scott said in an interview on Capitol Hill of the official celebrations he partook in.The only low point that stuck out was a minor technical difficulty. "I walked out to use a teleprompter and it didn't work," Scott said of the communications snafu.Scott said he kept things low-key after his swearing in. "They had a ball … but we didn't have one," he said, adding, "Every inauguration is different."January 3, 2023: This story was updated with additional information about the dinner on January 2, and details of who plans to attend the January 3 swearing-in ceremony. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Gov. Ron DeSantis, 44, is being sworn in for a second term, where he'll have a supportive Republican supermajority in the Florida legislature. Then-Florida Governor-elect Ron DeSantis, left, arrives with his wife Casey during an inauguration ceremony, Tuesday, January 8, 2019, in Tallahassee, Florida.Lynne Sladky/AP Photo DeSantis is being sworn in for his second term on January 3 in Tallahassee.  Lots of onlookers will be watching for signs of his national political aspirations.  Numerous events are scattered over the week, including a candlelight dinner and a ball.  The political world will be watching Tallahassee this week as Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida prepares to kick off his second term. The governor will take the oath of office on the steps of the Historic Capitol on Tuesday at noon, and several other events will be scattered in Florida's capital over two days. Eagle-eyed viewers will be closely watching for signs of DeSantis' national ambitions. DeSantis is a favorite to run for the GOP nomination in 2024 behind former President Donald Trump, who made his White House bid official on November 15. "When he gives his speech I think that speech — although it will be for Florida — may be telling his projections for 2024," Jennifer Carroll, who was lieutenant governor under former GOP Gov. Rick Scott, told Insider. "For the inauguration, that would be the thing to look for: What is he going to say in the speech? What is going to be the delivery and the tone?"The inauguration festivities formally kick off Monday with an intimate candlelight cocktail hour and dinner. On Tuesday, after the noon swearing-in on the steps of the Historic Capitol, Florida first lady Casey DeSantis will hold "A Toast to One Million Mamas," in recognition of the 1.1 million women she mobilized in support of her husband. The final event of the two-day bash is the inaugural ball, which typically takes place at the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center. The DeSantises want guests to stay late and dance at the ball, and got a band to perform, said a person briefed on the planning who spoke on condition of anonymity. Five people who donated $1 million will get the "inaugural chair" designation and access to multiple inaugural events, according to a breakdown of sponsorship packages obtained by Politico. The overarching theme is "The Free State of Florida," the Florida Standard first reported."The Free State of Florida" is a motto mirroring DeSantis' 2022 campaign theme. Ahead of Election Day, his campaign ran ads titled "My Florida Story" that featured people talking about how the governor's policies on COVID-19, when he pushed to keep schools and workplaces open.DeSantis carried the state by nearly 20 points on Election Day against former Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist. The victory was a stunning turnaround for the governor, who won his first gubernatorial race by just 33,000 votes. During his second term, DeSantis will have a supportive supermajority in the Republican legislature. So far, DeSantis pledged to undo sales taxes on certain items and pitched a plan to make it more difficult for teachers to enroll and stay in unions. He has called his priorities for the 2022 session his "Freedom Agenda." DeSantis, 44, is currently the youngest state governor in the US, though he's about to be unseated from that designation by Gov.-elect Sarah Huckabee Sanders in Arkansas, who is 40. Over the course of his two-day inauguration, lobbying offices and law firms also are expected to have their own events in Florida's capital. Officials stand on stage during an inauguration ceremony where Ron DeSantis was sworn in as Florida Governor, Tuesday, January 8, 2019, in Tallahassee, Florida.Lynne Sladky/AP PhotoInauguration tickets raise funds for the Republican Party of Florida The funds collected from ticket sales for the various official inauguration events will go toward the Republican Party of Florida. Under state law, individuals and corporations don't have limits as to how much they can contribute to state political parties or committees. The inaugural chairs for the event, The Florida Standard reported, are Brian Ballard of Ballard Partners; Nick Iarossi of Capital City Consulting; Bill Rubin of Rubin Turnbull & Associates; and Jeff Hartley of Smith, Bryan & Myers. "Both the Governor and First Lady oversaw every detail," Hartley told Insider of the forthcoming inauguration. "It was put together in a tight timeframe with a small staff who did an unbelievable job of pulling it all together over the holidays."Five donors who paid $1 million for tickets will get to attend the candlelight dinner and the ball, receive prime seats to the swearing-in, be able to take a photo with the governor, and get two tickets each to "A Toast to One Million Mamas," according to Politico.The toast is taking the place of what has traditionally been a tea with the first lady, according to a Republican strategist who spoke on condition of anonymity to protect invitee information. The event is expected to celebrate DeSantis' successful endorsements of school board candidates who align with his agenda and to include members of the conservative "Moms for Liberty" group. Guests of the governor for various events will include conservative media influencers, three people told Insider. Major fundraising is typical for an inauguration, whether it be at the state or federal level. Numerous corporations that do business with the federal government also helped bankroll President Joe Biden's made-for-TV inauguration celebrations, Insider reported.DeSantis released a partial list of donors in 2019 that included now-political foe Disney and the private prison company the GEO Group.This inauguration, DeSantis is considering turning down donations from Big Tech companies, The New York Times reported. DeSantis himself has become a prolific fundraiser who shattered records for a gubernatorial campaign, according to the money-in-politics nonpartisan research organization OpenSecrets. His political action committee, Friends of Ron DeSantis, raised nearly $206 million as of November 2, according to the Florida Department of State Division of Elections. During Tuesday's ceremony, DeSantis is expected to appear alongside his wife and Lieutenant Governor Jeanette Nuñez.Other top Florida officials also tend to appear at the inauguration, including the attorney general, the chief financial officer, and the commissioner of agriculture. The 2023 gubernatorial inauguration is the same day as the start of the new Congress up in Washington, DC, so not all of the Florida delegation will be attending. "I support Governor DeSantis and am honored to have been invited to his inauguration," GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida told Insider. "Unfortunately, I have other pressing business in Washington on January 3rd."Emails inquiring about attendance were sent to the offices of other Republican members of the Florida delegation, including now-Sen. Rick Scott, Sen. Marco Rubio, as well as Reps. Byron Donalds and Brian Mast, were not answered in time for deadline. An email sent to a representative for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush also was not met with a response. Then-Florida Gov.-elect Ron DeSantis, right, and his wife Casey wave to supporters as they walk onto the stage after he was declared the winner of the election at his party Tuesday, November 6, 2018, in Orlando, Florida.Phelan M. Ebenhack/AP PhotoEvery inauguration has a different focus and eventsDeSantis' 2019 inauguration had roughly 3,000 guests in attendance, according to The Naples Daily News.That inauguration included an appreciation event for military veterans and first responders at the Tallahassee Automobile Museum and a legislative luncheon at the state Capitol. The event was a nod to DeSantis' experience given that he is a veteran who was a lawyer for the Navy. The events from the last inauguration also included a breakfast at Goodwood Museum in Tallahassee to recognize Nuñez as the highest-ranking Hispanic woman elected in Florida history.When DeSantis was first sworn in in 2019, he and his wife opted not to hold a traditional inaugural parade. Instead, they held their son Mason's baptism at the governor's mansion with water they collected from the Sea of Galilee during a trip to Israel, according to The Tampa Bay Times."The pomp and circumstance is fine, but ultimately this is about putting the pedal to the metal," the governor told the Associated Press about opting not to have a parade. There will be no parade in Tallahassee in 2023, either. The inauguration for Scott — who was DeSantis' predecessor in the governor's mansion, did include a parade. Asked by Insider to talk about Florida inaugurations, Scott smiled as he recounted his first swearing-in over a decade ago."It's fun. We had a parade," Scott said in an interview on Capitol Hill of the official celebrations he partook in.The only low point that stuck out was a minor technical difficulty. "I walked out to use a teleprompter and it didn't work," Scott said of the communications snafu.Scott said he kept things low-key after his swearing in. "They had a ball … but we didn't have one," he said, adding, "Every inauguration is different."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Michigan faces TCU, and Georgia plays Ohio State in the College Football Playoff Semifinals on ESPN. You can livestream games on services like Sling. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Quarterback Stetson Bennet IV will attempt to lead Georgia to back-to-back national championships.AP Photo/Darron Cummings The 2022 College Football Playoff begins December 31 with four teams in the semifinal round. Georgia will play Ohio State in the Peach Bowl, while Michigan faces TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. ESPN will air both semifinal bowl games, as well as the CFP national championship game set for January 9. The 2022 College Football Playoff will feature Georgia, Michigan, TCU, and Ohio State, with each team looking to claim the national championship after a challenging season.Michigan hopes to advance to its first national championship game after losing in last year's semifinal round, while TCU is making its first College Football Playoff appearance. Ohio State lost against Michigan but will look to recover against defending national champion Georgia.The winners of the semifinals will move onto the CFP National Championship on January 9. The national championship game will be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, home of the NFL's Los Angeles Rams and Chargers. Top-ranked Georgia won last year's championship game over Alabama in Miami.How to watch the College Football PlayoffYou can watch the College Football Playoff on ESPN. The Fiesta Bowl starts first at 4 p.m. ET on December 31, and the Peach Bowl will follow at 8 p.m ET. The national championship game is then scheduled for January 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET.If you already subscribe to ESPN through a cable or TV provider, you can log in to ESPN.com or the ESPN app with your pay-TV account to stream the College Football Playoff Semifinals and CFP National Championship. Keep in mind, however, the games are exclusive to the ESPN cable channel and are not included with an ESPN+ membership.If you don't already have ESPN through cable, you can sign up for a live TV streaming service with access to the network in order to stream the College Football Playoff. At $40 a month, Sling TV's Orange plan is one of the most affordable services with ESPN.YouTube TV is another good option with ESPN, since it offers a two-day trial that could be useful for watching the semifinal games or the CFP National Championship. After your trial, the service costs $55 a month for your first three months, and then $65 a month.College Football Playoff scheduleGameDate and timeChannel(#2) Michigan vs. (#3) Texas Christian University December 31, 4 p.m. ETESPN(#1) Georgia vs. (#4) Ohio StateDecember 31, 8 p.m. ETESPNCFP National ChampionshipJanuary 9, 7:30 p.m. ETESPNHow are College Football Playoff teams selected?The four College Football Playoff teams were chosen by a selection committee based on their regular season record, strength of schedule, championships won, and other factors. The committee has agreed to expand the playoff to a 12-team format starting with the 2024 season.Other college football bowl games are filled by teams that won their conferences and by invitation.Where is each College Football Playoff game being played?The Vrbo Fiesta Bowl between Michigan and TCU will be played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl featuring Ohio State and Georgia will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. The national championship game will be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Southwest prides itself on bringing "LUV" to its operation. But it's faced delays and cancellations this holiday season. Here's how it grew so fast. Southwest Airlines flight attendants in an undated historic picture.Southwest Airlines Southwest Airlines, the US's largest domestic carrier, experienced an operations meltdown in this holiday season. Despite its problems, Southwest celebrates its customer- and employee-focused mission. The airline found success using unconventional marketing strategies focused on humor, booze, arm wrestling, and go-go boots. Southwest Airlines is the US's largest domestic carrier, serving over 100 destinations across the country. The carrier has been in operation since 1971 and just celebrated its 51st anniversary in June.Stephen M. Keller/Southwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestWith Southwest's immense size, it has a lot of systems at play to keep it running efficiently and on time. But, sometimes a nasty winter storm can derail even the best carrier's operations.Elliott Cowand Jr/ShutterstockBut, Southwest suffered from more than just the weather in the holiday season of 2022.Canceled flight travelers line up in front of Southwest Airlines sign at Denver International Airport.Hyoung Chang/Getty ImagesCaptain Mike Santoro, vice president of the Southwest Airlines Pilots Association, told Insider the storm was the catalyst of the meltdown, but "outdated" scheduling software created the snowball.Southwest Airlines cabin.Thomas Pallini/InsiderFrustrated Southwest pilot and union rep says the airline's flight meltdown was caused by outdated scheduling softwareSouthwest confirmed to Insider that its systems were unable to handle the "magnitude" of disruptions, which amounted to over 7,000 from Christmas to December 28 alone.Travelers wait at a Southwest Airlines baggage counter to retrieve their bags after canceled flights at Los Angeles International Airport on December 26, 2022.Eugene Garcia/AP PhotoSource: FlightAwareThe company acknowledged its software needs an update, with a spokesperson saying, "we are focused on making investments in technology upgrades to work toward that solution."Passengers line up at the Southwest ticket desk at San Francisco International Airport on December 26, amid widespread delays and cancellations for the airline.Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty ImagesDespite its operations issues in the holiday season of 2022, Southwest prides itself on being a customer- and employee-focused airline, bringing "LUV" to its operation, and keeping safety, hospitality, and customer service at the forefront of its mission. (LUV is its stock symbol.)Southwest AirlinesAccording to financial information company BrightScope, Southwest has one of the highest-rated employee 401k plans. Meanwhile, J.D. Power reported in May that customers ranked Southwest as having the best economy product in North America.The grieving owner is planning to sue the airline.MARK RALSTON/AFP via Getty ImagesSource: BrightScope, J.D. Power ranked airlines across 3 fare classes according to its annual customer satisfaction survey — see the resultsHaley Woods, founder of Girls LOVE Travel — a Facebook group with over one million members — told Insider that when her flight was canceled over the holiday week, she encountered the most "professional" and "upbeat" Southwest employees.V_E/Shutterstock"While this disruption might derail others from using SWA in the future — their customer kindness has reminded me that I will absolutely be looking past this and onward for future adventures," she said.Passengers wait in line to check in for their flights at Southwest Airlines service desk at LaGuardia Airport, Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2022, in New York.Yuki Iwamura/APWhile it's could still lose some trust from customers, Southwest is likely to eventually bounce back. See how the airline has grown over the years to be the powerhouse it is today.Jonathan Weiss/ShutterstockSource: Southwest AirlinesSouthwest started as a small carrier based in Texas and only operated intra-state routes between three cities, San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas. The airline, which was originally called Air Southwest, was dreamt up by Rollin King and Herb Kelleher on a cocktail napkin in 1966.Herb Kelleher (left) and Rollin King (right)Southwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestKing mapped the network he envisioned, making a triangle between the three key cities. He explained to Kelleher that operating solely in Texas would make the company exempt from the Civil Aeronautics Board's federal regulations, which controlled fares, routes, and schedules.Rollin King's "Texas Triangle"Southwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestFrom 1938 to 1978, the airline industry was federally regulated under the CAB as means to ensure major carriers like United and Pan Am were profitable. Fares were sky-high and only business travelers and deep-pocket leisure customers could afford the luxury of flight. The downside was that a lot of the time, planes flew half-empty.Convair 880 club cabinBettmann/Getty ImagesSource: Smithsonian National Air and Space MuseumBecause Air Southwest was certified under the state's aviation regulator, the Texas Aeronautics Commission, it was not bound to federal rules — a clever loophole King unapologetically copied from California carrier Pacific Southwest Airlines.Rollin KingSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestThe loophole allowed Air Southwest to fly freely in Texas and undercut competitors' fares, offering more customers the option to fly instead of drive in the large state. The business model was game-changing and a threat to legacy airlines.Herb Kelleher with model of Southwest aircraftSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestIn 1967, three airlines operating under federal rules, Braniff, Trans-Texas Airways, and Continental Airlines, took legal action against Air Southwest, saying it does not have the right to fly in Texas.Lady Bird Johnson, wife of President Lyndon Johnson, steps off Braniff Airways jetHarvey Georges/Associated PressSource: Companies HistoryThe lawsuit took three years to resolve, and in 1970, the Texas Supreme Court ruled Air Southwest could fly in the state. The three airlines then took the case to the US Supreme Court, which declined to review it.Herb Kelleher (left) Lamar Muse (second from left) and Rollin King (center)Southwest AirlinesSource: Companies HistoryAir Southwest's right to fly in Texas was finalized in December of 1970. The carrier officially changed its name to Southwest Airlines in 1971 and commenced operations on June 18 of the same year.Southwest flight attendant points to scheduleSouthwest AirlinesSource: Companies HistoryThe carrier launched with two routes from Dallas Love Field to Houston and San Antonio using three new Boeing 737-200 aircraft. Flights between Houston and San Antonio commenced in November 1971.Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-2T4 at Los Angeles International Airport in 1991.Torsten Maiwald/Airliners.netPart of Southwest's immense success was due to Kelleher's focus on unconventional marketing and unique corporate culture.Herb Kelleher on Southwest tailSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestKelleher used Pacific Southwest Airways' idea of "Long Legs And Short Nights" for hostesses, as they were called at the time, keeping with the theme of hiring attractive women to work Southwest flights.Southwest Airlines flight attendants in an undated historic picture.Southwest AirlinesSource: Companies HistoryThe airline's first flight attendants were described as long-legged dancers and were handpicked by a committee that included the same individual who picked the hostess on Hugh Hefner's Playboy jet.Southwest Airlines first flight attendant uniformsSouthwest AirlinesSource: Companies HistoryKelleher dressed the flight attendants in a bright orange top, orange hot pants, a white belt around the hips, and white side-laced go-go boots. He also pushed for a laid-back, casual inflight experience and only hired female hostesses who were fun, engaging, and had a sense of humor.First Southwest Airlines hostess classSouthwest AirlinesSource: Texas MonthlySouthwest also provided a winter version of the uniform, which included orange and white striped hot pants, a blazer, a white top, and an ascot.Southwest winter version of hot pants uniformSouthwest AirlinesSource: Texas MonthlyKelleher continued the playboy theme by creating a "love" culture at Southwest. The carrier was called the "love airline,” automatic ticket dispensers were "love machines," inflight snacks were "love bites," and drinks were "love potions."Southwest "love" adSouthwest AirlinesSource: Texas MonthlyThe airline also crafted its own special inflight cocktails, which were free for passengers. A few were appropriately named Kentucky Matchmaker, the Pucker Potion, and the Lucky Lindsay.Southwest Airlines flight attendant preparing beverage orders in the galleySouthwest AirlinesSource: Texas MonthlyHe even went on to create ads centered around humor and attractive women. In the context of the 1970s, using attractive female flight attendants to gain customers was an industry norm.A 1968 photo of three flight attendants for Southwest AirlinesAlan Band/Keystone/Getty ImagesSource: Texas MonthlyIn 1972, Southwest made a game-changing, innovative marketing move. The company introduced the "two-tier" fare system, which established two separate price points aimed at different types of travelers.A Southwest Airlines Customer Service Agent checks in a Customer at the gateDavid Woo/Southwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestThe fares were the regularly priced "Executive Class Service" at $26 one-way and the "Pleasure Class" at $13 one-way or $25 roundtrip. "Pleasure Class" fares were available after 6:59 p.m. on weekdays and all day Saturday and Sunday.Southwest airlines customer service agents with customers at the ticket counterSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestThe two-tier structure was a wild success, with Southwest increasing its average passenger load from 17 before the move to 75 after.Southwest pilotsSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestIn 1973, the company launched a $13 one-way "half-fare" sale on all flights to San Antonio. Southwest's rival, Braniff, responded with its own "get acquainted sale" with $13 fares between Dallas and Houston. This was the start of the $13 Fare War.Southwest’s ad declaring war against Braniff’s fare cutSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestSouthwest knew $13 fares on its only profitable route would run it straight into bankruptcy, so King quickly came up with a marketing campaign that would put Southwest on top. "Nobody's going to shoot Southwest out of the sky for a lousy $13," read the bold ad.Southwest ad against Braniff's $13 fare warSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestSouthwest matched Braniff's fare between Dallas and Houston, which was met with praise and respect from customers. As part of the campaign, the airline also offered a free fifth of liquor for passengers who paid the full $26 fare.Ticket agent poses with a bottle of Chivas Regal in front of adSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestBusiness travelers loved the promotion, and lucky for Southwest, three-fourths of its customers opted to pay full price and pocket the free booze. The airline soon became a fan favorite among many Texas business communities, and Braniff was fuming.Southwest customer holding advertisement and receiving free liquorSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestBy the end of 1973, Southwest finally turned its first profit and would continue to profit for 47 years until the coronavirus pandemic ended the streak. Meanwhile, Braniff lost the battle and the war, ceasing operations in 1982.Braniff Airways aircraft in PeruCarl & Ann Purcell/Getty ImagesSource: Southwest, Braniff International Airways BoutiqueSouthwest's early challenges did not end with Braniff. In 1964, the Civil Aeronautics Board demanded the city of Dallas build an airport to serve the entire Dallas/Fort Worth area. In 1968, every air carrier operating out of Love Field agreed to move to DFW when it opened in 1974.British Airways Concord at DFW in 1973 after the airport was finished-/AFP via Getty ImagesSource: Encyclopedia.comHowever, Southwest was not a part of that agreement and filed suit that it would not move from Love Field when the new airport opened. The airline claimed there was no legal reason to end commercial traffic at Love Field and that the company made no written agreement to move its operations.Concord and Boeing 747 at DFW after the airport's completion in 1973-/AFP via Getty ImagesSource: Encyclopedia.comThe city and the DFW Airport Board sued Southwest, saying the CAB rule applied to the airline even if it was made before Southwest was officially founded. However, Southwest argued that its intra-state flights fell outside the jurisdiction of the CAB, so it did not have to leave Love Field.Opening day of new Love Field terminal in 2013Southwest AirlinesSource: Encyclopedia.comA federal district court agreed with Southwest and ruled that it could operate out of the airport as long as it remained open. When DFW opened in 1974, every airline except Southwest left Love Field.Southwest aircraft takes off from Love Fieldstock_photo_world/ShutterstockSource: Encyclopedia.comSouthwest continued to grow through the 70s, acquiring 10 aircraft and carrying its five-millionth customer by the end of 1977.Southwest's 3 millionth passenger Bob Pianta in 1976 (middle)Southwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestBy 1976, Southwest Airlines had been profitable for three years and proven that government regulation was not necessary for airlines to be successful. Deregulation was a top priority for Jimmy Carter's administration, and it passed the Airline Deregulation Act in 1978, effectively abolishing the Civil Aeronautics Board.President Carter signs the airline deregulation bill at the White HouseBettmann/Getty ImagesSource: National ReviewFinally, Southwest Airlines was free to operate interstate flights and the airline began to thrive. Meanwhile, major carriers like Eastern Airlines, Trans World Airlines, and Pan Am spread themselves too thin as they tried to rapidly expand.Southwest Boeing 737-300Southwest AirlinesSource: US Centennial of Flight CommissionUnlike major carriers, Southwest maintained a simple strategy for success after deregulation, like only operating one aircraft type, cleaning the aircraft before landing to allow for a quicker turn, and focusing on humor in marketing.Southwest flight attendant cleans the aircraftSouthwest AirlinesSource: USA TodayAnd its strategy worked. Southwest was prospering while other airlines like Pan Am and TWA collapsed. However, it was not long before the Wright Amendment put another wrench in the company's plans.Colleen Barrett with Wright is Wrong petitionsSouthwest AirlinesAfter deregulation, Southwest wanted to commence interstate flights from Love Field to New Orleans in 1979, but officials at DFW airport feared the increased traffic would hurt the airport financially. So, US Congressman Jim Wright drafted, sponsored, and helped pass a bill restricting passenger traffic at Love Field.Wright is Wrong signSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestThe law, known as the Wright Amendment, was signed in early 1980 and amended the International Air Transportation Act of 1979. It restricted flying out of Love Field to cities in Texas and the surrounding states of Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and New Mexico. The law was meant to keep Southwest from expanding operations out of Dallas.Wright Amendment protestersSouthwest AirlinesSource: The Dallas Morning NewsIt only applied to carriers that operated aircraft with more than 56 seats, which Southwest did. So, the airline had to rely on short-haul flights in the five-state area to bolster Love Field operations.Southwest employees protest the Wright AmendmentSouthwest AirlinesSource: The Dallas Morning NewsIn 1997, Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi were added to the list of reachable states. In 2005, Missouri was also added.Southwest employees celebrate end of Wright AmendmentSouthwest AirlinesSource: The Dallas Morning NewsHowever, in 2004, Southwest CEO Gary Kelly launched efforts to repeal the Wright Amendment, using the slogans "Set Love Free" and "Wright is Wrong" in the campaign.Herb Kelleher with "Wright is Wrong" sloganSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestIn 2006, an agreement was made between Southwest, American Airlines, Dallas, and Forth Worth to phase out the law. They agreed that in eight years, the amendment would be gone, but until then, carriers could fly to any US destination out of Love Field as long as at least one stop was made in any of the nine states under the Wright Amendment.Passengers sit in new Love Field terminalSouthwest AirlinesSource: Southwest, The Dallas Morning NewsOn October 13, 2014, at exactly 12:01 a.m., a countdown clock at Southwest's Headquarters in Dallas hit zero, officially ending the Wright Amendment. A few minutes after, the airline's first scheduled flight outside of the nine Wright states took off from Love Field to Denver.Wright Amendment endsSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestThe deal also capped the number of gates at Love Field to 20, and the airport still only has 20 to this day.Southwest aircraft at gate 2 at Love Fieldstock_photo_world/ShutterstockSource: The Dallas Morning NewsWhile the Wright Amendment restricted expansion out of Love Field, Southwest was still able to bolster its network out of other Texas cities in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s.Customer service employee at Houston HobbySouthwest AirlinesThroughout the 1980s, the airline expanded north into cities like Tulsa, Oklahoma City, and Kansas City, and west to Phoenix, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, and California. The airline moved east in the late 1980s with flights to Nashville and into the Midwest with flights to Chicago Midway and Detroit.Southwest flight takes off from VegasSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestThe airline also updated its livery in the 1980s. Southwest wanted to stand out in the skies and make its brand easily recognizable, so it wrapped its fuselage in desert gold and other warm colors. It received its first 737-300 jet in 1984, dubbed Spirit of Kitty Hawk.Herb Kelleher with Spirit of Kitty Hawk aircraftSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestSouthwest's flight attendant uniform was also updated by the 80s. Instead of hot pants and go-go boots, the airline allowed employees to wear real pants and skirts.Southwest Airlines 90s flight attendant uniformsSouthwest AirlinesSource: RackedIn the 1990s, the network expanded further east to cities like Baltimore, Cleveland, Columbus, Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, Providence, Islip, and Raleigh-Durham. The airline also began its Pacific Northwest expansion with the acquisition of Morris Air in 1994.Southwest aircraft dedicated to Rollin KingSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestIn 1991, the "Friends Fly Free" campaign was launched to battle the recession. The promotion allowed anyone 18 or older to bring a friend of any age free on their flight. It was so popular that Southwest offered the promotion for the next five years.Southwest's Friend Fly Free adSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestIn 1992, Southwest's most infamous marketing stunt occurred between Herb Kelleher and Kurt Herwald, chairman of Stevens Aviation.Kelleher and Herwald at the Malice in DallasSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestSouthwest had been using the slogan "Just Plane Smart" in its ads, but Stevens Aviation sent a letter to Kelleher noting its similarity to its "Plane Smart" slogan.Kelleher wearing "Just Plane Smart" sloganSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestInstead of entering a legal battle over the phrase, a Steven Aviation executive suggested an arm-wrestling competition between Herwald and Kelleher. The victor would have full rights to the slogan.Herb and Herwald arm wrestle at the Malice in DallasSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestKelleher marketed the event, dubbed the "Malice in Dallas," which received worldwide press coverage. "Smokin" Herb Kelleher and "Curtsy" Kurt Herwald put on a full show at the arena, which even earned a congratulatory note from President George Bush.Malice in Dallas artwork in Southwest HQSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestAt the turn of the century, Southwest revealed the livery that most people know today. The Canyon Blue color scheme debuted in January 2001.Debut of Southwest's Canyon Blue livery in 2001Southwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestWhile many airlines opted to introduce fees for things like checked bags and flight changes to recuperate funds, Southwest refused. Instead, the airline launched its "bags fly free" campaign which allows customers two complimentary checked bags. Southwest has not gone back on the offer to this day.Southwest ramp crew promotes free bagsSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestThroughout the 2000s, Southwest continued to focus on humor in its marketing. Its Wanna Get Away commercials proved successful, which promoted $49 one-way fares.Southwest Boeing 737-800Steven M. KellerSource: SouthwestBy 2010, Southwest added "Transfarency" to its brand. The airline would not have any hidden fees and would remain customer-focused with an emphasis on Hospitality and Heart. The recognizable tri-color heart was added to its airplanes and workplace.Heart OneSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestIn 2011, Southwest acquired AirTran Airways, which opened slots up out of Atlanta and gave it more network expansion opportunities in Mexico and the Caribbean. The two were fully integrated by 2014.Southwest acquires AirTranSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestAlso in 2014, the company's livery got another new look, with a harder focus on the heart, a new logo, and a sleek new color scheme.Southwest Airlines' updated 2014 liverySouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestIn July 2014, the airline officially became international with its first flight to Oranjestad, Aruba. In the same month, Southwest also started service to Nassau, Bahamas, and Jamaica.First international Southwest flight lands in Montego Bay, JamaicaStephen M. KellerSource: SouthwestThe company's flight attendant uniform got an update in 2017, marking the first time in 20 years the airline changed the look. Womenswear included two dresses, one black with blue and red stripes and the other gray with red and black stripes. Menswear included a black blazer, a gray shirt and pants, and a red tie.2017 Southwest flight attendant uniformsSouthwest AirlinesSource: Travel + LeisureIn October 2017, Southwest became the launch customer for the Boeing 737 MAX 8 jet, with its first revenue flight occurring on October 1. However, the aircraft was grounded in 2019 after two fatal accidents involved the MAX. The airline did not fly the plane again until March 2021.Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 8Southwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestIn 2019, Southwest reached its goal of operating flights to Hawaii with its inaugural service from Oakland to Honolulu.Passenger boards first Southwest flight to HawaiiSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestIn 2020, Southwest ended its 47-year profit streak when the coronavirus pandemic hit. Since last March, the airline has remained focused on the health and safety of its customers and employees.Southwest flight attendant greets passengers during the pandemicStephen M. Keller/Southwest AirlinesSource: CNNWhile the pandemic was a major blow to Southwest's operation, the carrier has continued to grow with 18 new cities announced in 2020.Passengers board Southwest flight during covid-19Stephen M. Keller/Southwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestAnd, it is continuing to expand with new routes and destinations, thanks to newly-appointed CEO Bob Jordan, who took over in February 2022.Southwest CEO Bob Jordan.Southwest AirlinesBob Jordan is Southwest Airlines' new CEO. Experts outline a 100-day plan for keeping customers, employees, and investors happySince the pandemic, Southwest has become profitable again and, like other carriers, is trying to keep up with the surge in air travel.Southwest Heart OneSouthwest AirlinesSource: SouthwestDespite its operations meltdown over the holiday of 2022, the carrier has vowed to get its operation back on track, compensate passengers for their time and added expenses, and continue to bring low fares to customers.A Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 at a gate in Austin, TexasGeorge Rose/Getty ImagesRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Donald Trump and his business are tangled in at least a dozen significant federal and local investigations and lawsuits. Here's the latest on all of them. Former President Donald Trump addresses the America First Agenda Summit in Washington, DC, on July 26, 2022.Drew Angerer/Getty Images Trump and his businesses are tangled in at least a dozen significant investigations and lawsuits. Under inquiry are alleged mishandling of documents, efforts to overturn the election, and more. On November 15, Trump officially launched a bid for president in 2024. It's hard to keep track of Donald Trump's very busy legal docket. The former president — who on November 15 officially launched his 2024 presidential bid — is the subject of at least four major investigations into wrongdoing relating to his handling of White House documents, the election, the insurrection, and his finances — probes based in Florida; Fulton County, Georgia; Washington, DC; and New York.Trump's business was also convicted in state court in Manhattan for a C-Suite-wide payroll tax-dodge scheme, earning the company felony status and a likely $1.6 million fine. On top of all that, Trump is fighting or bringing a grab-bag of important lawsuits that could financially cripple his international real-estate and golf resort empire.Keep up to date on the latest of Trump's legal travails with this guide to the ever-evolving Trump docket.Indictments Trump with his former CFO Allen Weisselberg at Trump Tower in 2017.Evan Vucci/APThe Trump Organization Payroll Case The Parties: The Trump Organization was found guilty of 17 tax-fraud counts on December 6, 2022 in a speedy, slam-dunk conviction in state Supreme Court in Manhattan.The Issues: A four-woman, eight-man, mostly working-class jury held Trump's real estate and golf resort business criminally liable for a 2005-2018 tax-dodge scheme admittedly run by the company's two top financial executives.The two, former CFO Allen Weisselberg and top payroll executive Jeffrey McConney, helped themselves and a half-dozen other company execs cheat on their income taxes by partially paying them with pricey perks and benefits, including free use of luxury cars and apartments, that were never reported to tax authorities.What's next: The company faces a maximum of $1.6 million in penalties at sentencing before the trial judge. New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan, scheduled for January 13. Additional potential repercussions include a heightened hesitancy among banks to lend to a company with felony status and an energized Trump probe in the Manhattan district attorney's office. Government corruption watchdogs also have renewed reason to urge the federal government to cease doing business with the former president.Criminal investigationsFulton County Georgia District Attorney Fani Willis in Atlanta, on Jan. 4, 2022.AP Photo/Ben Gray, FileThe Fulton County election interference probeThe parties: Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, Trump, and his Republican associates The issues: Willis is investigating whether Trump and his associates tried to interfere in the 2020 presidential election in Georgia. Her probe has expanded to also include investigating an alleged scheme to send a fake slate of electors to Georgia's state Capitol in an attempt to overturn the elections.She's notified Rudy Giuliani, Trump's former personal attorney, that he's a target in the investigation. Giuliani testified for six hours under a court order on August 17.What's next: Sen. Lindsey Graham testified on November 22 to the grand jury, after losing a court battle against its subpoena. Several more Trump aides are fighting subpoenas of their own.Pro-Trump protesters gather in front of the U.S. Capitol Building on January 6, 2021 in Washington, DC.Jon Cherry/Getty ImagesThe Justice Department investigation into efforts to overturn the 2020 electionThe parties: Federal investigators are increasingly scrutinizing the role Trump and his allies played in the effort to overturn the 2020 election.The issues: The Justice Department is facing pressure to prosecute following a string of congressional hearings that connected the former president to the violence of January 6, 2021, and to efforts to prevent the peaceful transfer of power.In a series of eight hearings, the House committee investigating the January 6 attack on the Capitol described Trump's conduct in criminal terms and pointed to an April court decision in which a federal judge said the former president likely committed crimes in his effort to hold on to power. In that ruling, Judge David Carter called Trump's scheme a "coup in search of a legal theory."Prosecutors have asked witnesses directly about Trump's involvement in the effort to reverse his loss in the 2020 election and are likely to issue more subpoenas and search warrants in the weeks ahead.In June, federal investigators searched the home of Jeffrey Clark, a former Justice Department official who advanced Trump's baseless claims of election fraud.On the same day, federal agents seized the phone of John Eastman, a lawyer who helped advise Trump on how to overturn the 2020 election. Thomas Windom, a top prosecutor in the Justice Department's inquiry, revealed in late July that investigators had obtained a second warrant allowing a search of Eastman's phone. Rep. Liz Cheney, the top Republican on the panel, lost her primary bid for reelection on August 16.What's next: The Justice Department has remained largely silent about how and whether it would consider charges against Trump. But in July, prosecutors asked witnesses directly about the former president's involvement in the attempt to reverse his electoral defeat. The House select committee is expected to issue a report and complete its work by the year's end.FBI agents descended on Mar-a-Lago on August 8, 2022, with a search warrant.Darren SamuelsohnThe Justice Department investigation into the handling of classified documentsThe parties: The FBI searched Trump's estate in South Florida, Mar-a-Lago, on August 8 as part of an investigation into the possible mishandling of government records, including classified documents. Trump and his lawyers alleged prosecutorial misconduct and condemned the search as politically motivated.The issues: Early in 2022, Trump turned over 15 boxes of documents — including some marked as classified and "top secret" — to the National Archives. But federal investigators scrutinizing the former president's handling of records reportedly grew suspicious that Trump or people close to him still retained some key records. The FBI seized about a dozen boxes of additional documents during the raid of Mar-a-Lago, in a search that immediately demonstrated how Trump's handling of records from his administration remains an area of legal jeopardy.What's next: In December, a federal appeals court ended a vetting process for the thousands of records seized from Mar-a-Lago.US District Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee on the federal trial court in South Florida, established the review process at the former president's request. The Justice Department has argued that the special master review has intruded on and delayed its investigation.During oral arguments on November 22, the chief judge of the 11th Circuit raised concerns about the precedent that would be set if the special master review was allowed to continue."Other than the fact that this involves a former president, everything else about this is indistinguishable from any pre-indictment search warrant," said Chief Judge William Pryor, a George W. Bush appointee. "And we've got to be concerned about the precedent that we would create that would allow any target of a federal criminal investigation to go into a district court and to have a district court entertain this kind of petition."The investigation for the Mar-a-Lago case, as well as the fake elector investigation, is now under the purview of Special Prosecutor Jack Smith, who US Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed in November.Lawsuits against TrumpThe front page of the lawsuit filed by New York Attorney General Letitia James accusing former President Donald Trump, his family and his business of a decade of padding his net worth to secure hundreds of millions of dollars in bank loans and tax breaks.Jon Elswick/APThe NY AG's civil filing against the Trump family and Trump OrganizationThe parties: New York Attorney General Letitia James has sued Trump, his family, and the Trump Organization.The issues: James says she has uncovered a decade-long pattern of financial wrongdoing at Trump's multi-billion-dollar real-estate and golf resort empire.She alleges Trump falsely inflated his net worth by billions of dollars to secure hundreds of millions of dollars in bank loans and that he also low-balled his properties' worth for tax breaks. Trump has derided the AG's efforts as a politically motivated witch hunt.The 220-page lawsuit arose from a three-year investigation and makes multiple, corporation-crippling demands that would eventually be decided by a Manhattan judge.The demands include that the company pays back $250 million Trump allegedly pocketed by misleading banks about his worth. It further requests that Trump and his three eldest children — Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, and Eric Trump, who have all served as Trump Organization executives — be permanently barred from running a company in New York state.The suit also demands that for the next five years, an independent receiver be put in place to monitor the company's finances and that Donald Trump be personally barred from purchasing property in New York or borrowing from a New York-registered bank over those same five years.Perhaps most extremely, it asks the judge to pull the Trump Organization's New York papers of incorporation. That's the charter that lets Trump draw revenue from his New York properties, including the lucrative commercial rents at his Manhattan skyscrapers. These hamstringing demands, if ordered by a judge, would run Trump's corporate headquarters out of New York. Trump would also be barred from selling, buying, collecting rent from, or borrowing against any property in New York, potentially putting the Trump Organization out of business entirely. What's next:  Barring a settlement, next comes an "eye-glazing" litigation slog — legal filings, courtroom arguments, decisions, and appeals — that could go on for two years before a trial can decide if anything material actually happens to the Trumps and the family business. James is the winner in the first of that litigation. On November 3, state Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron granted her request that an independent monitor supervise the company finances because the company is continuing to commit fraud.But in announcing her office's lawsuit, the AG also revealed that she has referred her findings of alleged financial and tax fraud to federal prosecutors in New York and to the Internal Revenue Service.Either of those referrals could more quickly result in federal criminal charges and a bill for millions of dollars in back taxes and penalties.Supporters of then-President Donald Trump protest inside the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, in Washington, DCBrent Stirton/Getty ImagesLawsuits alleging 'incitement' on January 6The Parties: House Democrats and two Capitol police officers accused Trump of inciting the violent mob on January 6.The Issues: Trump's lawyers have argued that his time as president grants him immunity that shields him from civil liability in connection with his January 6 address at the Ellipse, where he urged supporters to "fight like hell."A federal judge rejected Trump's bid to dismiss the civil lawsuits, ruling that his rhetoric on January 6 was "akin to telling an excited mob that corn-dealers starve the poor in front of the corn-dealer's home."Judge Amit Mehta said Trump later displayed a tacit agreement with the mob minutes after rioters breached the Capitol when he sent a tweet admonishing then-Vice President Mike Pence for lacking the "courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country."What's Next: Trump has appealed Mehta's ruling to the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit and requested an oral argument. In a late July court filing, Trump's lawyers said the immunity afforded to the former president cannot be "undercut if the presidential act in question is unpopular among the judiciary.Advice columnist E. Jean Carroll is pictured in New York in 2020.Seth Wenig/APE. Jean Carroll v. TrumpThe Parties: Advice columnist E. Jean Carroll is suing Trump for defamation, battery, and emotional distress in federal court in Manhattan. The lawsuit was first filed in June 2019 and has been amended since.The Issues: Carroll's lawsuit alleges Trump defamed her after she publicly accused him of raping her in a Bergdorf-Goodman dressing room in Manhattan in the mid-90s.Trump responded to Carroll's allegation by saying it was untrue and that she was "not my type." Trump also denied ever meeting Carroll, despite a photo to the contrary.What's next: Arrangements for the sharing of evidence are ongoing behind the scenes, including for the possible collection of Trump's DNA.Carroll has said she wants to compare Trump's DNA with unidentified male DNA on a dress she wore during the alleged rape. The trial is tentatively set for February 6, 2023; Carroll has said she would never settle the case.Although Carroll's allegations are more than 30 years old, a New York law that took effect on November 24 — the Adult Survivors Act — gives sex assault victims a one-year window to file civil cases regardless of when the incident occurred, so long as they were 18 or older at the time. Carroll added rape allegations to her lawsuit after the law took effect.Donald Trump, right, sits with his children, from left, Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr., and Ivanka Trump during a groundbreaking ceremony for the Trump International Hotel on July 23, 2014, in Washington.Evan Vucci/APThe 'multi-level marketing' pyramid scheme caseThe Parties: Lead plaintiff Catherine McKoy and three others sued Trump, his business, and his three eldest children, Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, and Ivanka Trump, in 2018 in federal court in Manhattan.The Issues: Donald Trump is accused of promoting a scam multi-level marketing scheme on "The Celebrity Apprentice." The lawsuit alleges Trump pocketed $8.8 million from the scheme — but that they lost thousands of dollars. Trump's side has complained that the lawsuit is a politically motivated attack. What's Next: The parties are figuring out a trial date for the case, which is expected to land in late 2023 or early 2024. Michael Cohen, Trump's former attorney, testifies before the House Oversight Committee on Capitol Hill February 27, 2019 in Washington, DC.Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesMichael Cohen's 'imprisonment' caseThe Parties: Trump fixer-turned-critic Michael Cohen sued Donald Trump, former Attorney General Bill Barr, and more than a dozen federal prison officials and employees, in federal court in Manhattan in 2021.The Issues: The president's former personal attorney is seeking $20 million in damages relating to the time he spent in prison for financial crimes and lying to Congress about Trump's dealings in Congress. Cohen says in his suit that he had been moved to home confinement for three months in the spring of 2020 due to the pandemic, but was then vindictively thrown into solitary confinement when he refused to stop speaking to the press and writing a tell-all book about his former boss. A judge ordered him released after 16 days.What's Next: A decision is pending on defense motions to dismiss the case.Singer Eddy Grant performs in concert in honor of Nelson Mandela in Hyde Park, London June 27, 2008.Andrew Winning/ReutersThe Electric Avenue copyright caseThe Parties: Eddy Grant, the composer/performer behind the 80s disco-reggae mega-hit "Electric Avenue," sued Donald Trump and his campaign in federal court in Manhattan in 2020.The Issues: Grant is seeking $300,000 compensation for copyright infringement. His suit says that Trump made unauthorized use of the 1983 dance floor staple during the 2020 campaign. About 40 seconds of the song played in the background of a Biden-bashing animation that Trump posted to his Twitter account. The animation was viewed 13 million times before being taken down a month later. Trump has countered that the animation was political satire and so exempt from copyright infringement claims. He's also said that the campaign merely reposted the animation and have no idea where it came from.What's Next: There was an August 21 deposition completion deadline for both sides — including for Trump and Grant. Pretrial motions are not due to be filed until October.Lawsuits brought by Trump Donald Trump v. Mary Trump The Parties: The former president counter-sued his niece Mary Trump — and the New York Times — in 2021 in New York State Supreme Court in Dutchess County.The Issues: Mary Trump, the Times, and three of its reporters  "maliciously conspired" against him, Trump alleges, by collaborating with the Times on its expose of and breaching the confidentiality of the family's 2001 settlement of the estate of Mary Trump's father, Fred Trump Sr. What's Next: Mary Trump's motion to dismiss is pending in the state Supreme Court in Manhattan, where the case has since been transferred to.Hillary Clinton.Photo by: Mike Smith/NBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty ImagesDonald Trump v. Hillary ClintonThe Parties: Trump has sued Hillary Clinton, her campaign, the Democratic National Committee, and prominent Democrats including former DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz and former Clinton campaign chair John Podesta in a federal court in southern Florida in March, 2022.The Issues:  Trump alleged in this unusual use of federal racketeering statutes that Clinton and her campaign staff conspired to harm his 2016 run for president by promoting a "contrived Trump-Russia link." The defendants succeeded in getting the massive lawsuit dismissed in September; a federal judge in Florida said the suit was structurally flawed and called it "a two-hundred-page political manifesto" in which Trump detailed "his grievances against those that have opposed him."What's Next: Trump's side has promised to appeal the dismissal.Camila DeChalus and C. Ryan Barber contributed to a previous version of this story.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Republican Herschel Walker, a former NFL star, is locked in a close battle with Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock to represent Georgia. Herschel Walker, who is a Republican running for the US Senate in Georgia, played professional football for the Philadelphia Eagles in the 1990s and was also a member of the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and Minnesota Vikings.Photo by David Madison/Getty Images Georgia's upcoming runoff election will determine whether GOP candidate Herschel Walker will enter the US Senate. Walker was a notable college and professional football player. Here are other prominent politicians and government officials who've transitioned from a career football to politics. On December 6, Republican US Senate candidate Herschel Walker and Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock will face-off in their highly anticipated runoff election in Georgia. This race — one of the most expensive in US history — has garnered national media attention from start to end.For voters in the Peach State, its a choice between Warnock, a senior pastor at Atlanta's historic Ebenezer Baptist Church, versus Walker, a former college football star and ex-NFL player.Walker's football career made him a celebrity not only in Georgia where he was a standout running back, but nationwide, making his campaign launch exciting for fans of America's favorite pasttime.But the pro-baller-to-politician pipeline hardly begins with Walker.Meet 17 other political and governmental figures who played or otherwise participated in pro football before entering public office:Herschel WalkerIn 1982, Herschel Walker was awarded a Heisman Trophy for being the top player in college football. He'd go on to play professional football until 1997. In 2022, Walker launched a campaign to run for US Senate in Georgia as a Republican.Bettman/Getty Images, Jessica McGowan/Getty ImagesWalker was the star running back for the University of Georgia, where he won his Heisman Trophy in 1982. He went on to play professional football for the New Jersey Generals of the US Football League, which was partially owned by Donald Trump at the time, for three years before being drafted by the Dallas Cowboys.Walker also played for the Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, and the New York Giants. "He had what they call straight-ahead skills, which is he was fast and he was strong. And you weren't going to bring him down on your own," author Jeff Pearlman who covered much of Walker's football career told Vox's Ben Jacobs in October. "It doesn't mean he was going to juke you but he was a great athlete.As of this year, Walker is ranked in the all-time top-12 in the NFL for all-purpose yardage, according to Pro Football reference. He is a member of the College Football Hall of Fame. Walker also competed on the US Olympic two-man bobsled team in 1992.Colin AllredBefore being elected to the House of Representatives, Colin Allred was a linebacker for the Tennessee Titans.Nick Laham/Getty Images, Emil Lippe/Getty ImagesBefore embarking on his political journey, Rep. Colin Allred, a Democrat from Texas, was a linebacker for the Tennessee Titans, playing from 2006 to 2010.Allred attended Baylor University on a full-ride football scholarship and was accepted to play in the NFL immediately after graduating, leading him to defer his acceptance to law school.After five seasons in the NFL, Allred sustained a career-ending injury, bringing him back to pursuing a career as a civil rights attorney, according to Allred's official House of Representatives page.Today, he represents Texas' 32nd District, having first been elected to Congress in 2018.Tommy TubervilleSen. Tommy Tuberville is ranked as one of the top 50 most winning football coaches of all time.Chris Graythen/Getty Images, Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesRepublican Sen. Tommy Tuberville was once known as Coach Tuberville when he lead Auburn University's football team from 1999 to 2008.Tuberville is the only coach in Auburn's history to defeat their in-state rival, the University of Alabama, six consecutive times.He also served stints as assistant coach and defensive coordinator for the University of Miami and Texas A&M, before being named the head coach at the University of Mississippi, according to his website.Tuberville has also coached at Arkansas State, Texas Tech, and the University of Cincinnati. While coaching the Cinncinnati Bearcats, Tuberville earned $2.2 million a year, ranking him as the second highest in the American Athletic Conference's (AAC) pay ranks at the time, according to The Enquirer. In 2004, Tuberville was named national coach of the year.He retired from coaching the sport as one of top 50 most winningest football coaches of all time.He has been serving as a US senator from Alabama since 2021.Steve LargentDuring his time as a House representative, Largent was considered highly conservative, even by other Republicans.Focus on Sport/Getty Images, LUKE FRAZZA/AFP via Getty ImagesFormer US Rep. Steve Largent was a wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks for 14 seasons.Largent played college ball at the University of Tulsa. The Houston Oilers drafted Largent in 1976 but traded him to the Seahawks before he ever played a regular season game for the Texas team. An NFL Man of the Year winner in 1988 and Football Hall of Fame inductee in 1995, Largent only ever missed four games in his whole career because of injuries, according to the Football Hall of Fame.The Republican represented Oklahoma's 1st district from 1994 to 2002. Largent resigned from Congress to run for governor of Oklahoma in 2002 but lost in a close race.Largest later served as president of CTIA-The Wireless Association, a top Washington, D.C., trade and lobbying association, before retiring in 2014.Heath ShulerDemocratic Rep. Heath Shuler began his political career in 2006, following his retirement from the NFL.Doug Pensinger/ALLSPORT, David Howells/Corbis via Getty ImagesAfter leading his high school football team to three state championships, Joseph Heath Shuler went on to play quarterback for the University of Tennessee.Shuler's pro career began in 1994, when he was a first-round draft pick for the Washington Redskins, now known as the Washington Commanders. He received a 7-year, $19.25 million contract.But his career never really took flight.After three middling years in Washington, Shuler was traded to the New Orleans Saints. He started nine forgettable games and suffered a serious foot injury that took two surgeries to correct. He signed a contract with the Oakland Raiders, but re-injured his foot during training camp, so he was cut and later retired.In all, Shuler threw 15 touchdowns against 33 interceptions as a professional, according to Pro Football Reference.Shuler, a Democrat, was elected to represent North Carolina's 11th District in 2007. He did not seek re-election in 2012 and served in Congress until 2013.Since then, he's worked as a lobbyist and is now a senior advisor at law firm BakerHostetler.Donald TrumpIn 1983, Donald Trump bought the United States Football League's New Jersey Generals. He purchased the team for around $20 million, in today's dollars.Circa Images/GHI/Universal History Archive/Universal Images Group via Getty Images, Tasos Katopodis/Getty ImagesEven former President Donald Trump had a brief stint with professional football — although not with the NFL.In 1983, the then-business tycoon bought the United States Football League's (USFL) New Jersey Generals. He purchased the team for around $20 million, in today's dollars. Trump's running back for the Generals was none-other than Herschel Walker. However, Trump was widely cited for the failure of the USFL because he cared too much about merging with the NFL than he did about the team he owned."I think it was a big mistake," Dr. Ted Diethrich, one of the league's original owners, told USA Today at the time. "When that decision was made, the course for this was charted, and it was going to be a wreck."In 2014, Trump re-entered the football realm when he faced off with Jon Bon Jovi and the Pegula family to purchase the Buffalo Bills. But Trump underbid, and the Pegula family ultimately purchased the team.Less than a year later, Trump announced a bid for the presidency, ultimately winning the Republican Party nomination and defeating Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in one of the biggest political upsets in modern American history.Trump served as president from 2017 to 2021. He lost his bid for a second presidential term to current President Joe Biden. He has refused to accept the results of the 2020 election, claiming it was riddled with fraud. And in November, Trump officially announced he will run for president in 2024.Trump, who himself played football at the New York Military Academy as a youth, has long been in what Insider dubs "The Pigskin War" over players, team ownership, coaches, social injustice, Deflategate, and safety issues with the NFL.Jon RunyanRepublican Rep. Jon Runyan was elected to represent New Jersey after he retired from playing professional football.Joseph Labolito/Getty Images, Tom Williams/Roll CallRepublican Rep. Jon Runyan was elected to represent New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District in 2011, serving until 2015 after deciding not to seek a third term.Before entering politics, Runyan Sports Illustrated labeled him one of the "dirtiest players in the NFL" in its October 2006 issue.Most notably, Runyan, known as "The Enforcer," was an offensive lineman for the Philadelphia Eagles where he signed a $30 million contract, making him the highest paid offensive lineman at the time.He also had a stint with the Tennessee Titans from from 1996 to 1999. After a micro-fracture surgery on his knee and his Eagles contract expired in 2009, Runyan played five games with the San Diego Chargers before retiring later that year. Runyan's son, Jon Runyan Jr., is following in his father's footsteps and is currently a football guard for the Green Bay Packers.Jack KempThe late Jack Kemp served as a Republican on the House of Representatives from 1971 to 1989.Focus on Sport/Getty Images, Cynthia Johnson/Getty ImagesPre-politics, Jack Kemp played professional football as one of the most notable quarterbacks of his era.Kemp played from 1957 to 1969 across three pro leagues — the NFL, the Canadian Football League, and the American Football League.Kemp was captain of both the San Diego Chargers and Buffalo Bills. In 1965, he received the AFL Most Valuable Player award after leading the Bills to their second consecutive AFL championship.Kemp quickly entered politics after retiring from football.He served not only as a member of the US House of Representatives for New York from 1971 to 1989, but also as secretary of Housing and Urban Development during the George H. W. Bush Administration.In 1996, Kemp was the Republican vice presidential pick for presidential candidate Bob Dole, who lost to the Democratic ticket of Bill Clinton and Al Gore.Kemp, who died in 2009, also made an unsuccessful bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 1988.J.C. WattsRep. Julius Ceasar "J.C." Watts Jr. attended the University of Oklahoma on a football scholarship and then went on to play professional in the Canadian Football League.Mark Perlstein/Getty Images, © Wally McNamee/CORBIS/Corbis via Getty ImagesJulius Caesar Jr. "J.C." Watts started his football career in high school where he was the star quarterback, leading him to receive a football scholarship to the University of Oklahoma. Watts was originally drafted by the NFL's New York Jets, but they weren't able to guarantee him a position as quarterback, so he opted to play professionally in the Canadian Football League during the early- and mid-1980s, mostly with the Ottawa Rough Riders.He retired from football in 1986 and became a Baptist minister. Watts served in Congress starting in 1995 and represented Okalahoma's 3rd District until 2003.Watts then became a lobbyist.Anthony GonzalezAnthony Gonzalez was drafted by the Indianapolis Colts in 2007 after playing college football at Ohio State University.G. N. Lowrance/Getty Images, Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty ImagesVoters elected Republican Rep. Anthony Gonzalez to the House of Representatives in for the first time in 2018.He won re-election in 2020 but did not seek a third term in 2022 after voting to impeach Trump and otherwise running afoul of the former president. Gonzalez will exit Congress in January."While my desire to build a fuller family life is at the heart of my decision, it is also true that the current state of our politics, especially many of the toxic dynamics inside our party, is a significant factor in my decision," Gonzalez said in 2021 when announcing his decision.Before he began his political career, Gonzalez played wide receiver for the Indianapolis Colts from 2007 to 2011, catching 99 passes and seven touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference. He also had a brief stint with the New England Patriots before retiring from the sport in 2012.Before being drafted into the NFL, Gonzalez played college ball for Ohio State University.Burgess OwensGOP Rep. Burgess Owens of Utah, played professional football for the Oakland Raiders and the New York Jets.Focus on Sport/Getty Images, Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty ImagesAfter graduating from the University of Miami, Burgess Owens was drafted by the New York Jets in 1973.He played safety for the Jets until moving to the Oakland Raiders and Los Angeles Raiders. In 1980, he played for the Raiders' Super Bowl XV championship team.During his career, he notched 30 interceptions, returning four of them for touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference.When he played college football for the University of Miami, Owens was one of only four Black athletes recruited that year and one of three to receive a scholarship. A Republican, Owens assumed political office in 2021 to represent Utah's 4th District. Owens is a frequent contributor for Fox News and has been endorsed by Donald Trump. Tom OsborneTom Osborne won the ESPN Coach of the Decade award in 1999.John D. Hanlon/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images, Tom Williams/Roll Call/Getty ImagesIn the early 1960s, Tom Osborne played in the NFL for the Washington Redskins — now known as the Washington Commanders — after the San Francisco 49ers initially drafted him in 1959.But Osborne is most remembered for his 25 seasons coaching the University of Nebraska's Cornhuskers.During this time, Osborne's teams never won fewer than nine games in a single season, and he posted three undefeated seasons.Nebraska renamed their Memorial Stadium in 1998, calling it "Tom Osborne Field." In 1999, Osborne was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame and was named ESPN's "Coach of the Decade" for the 1990s. He represented Nebraska's 3rd district as a Republican from 2001 to 2007. Osborne ran for governor of Nebraska in 2006 but lost in a Republican primary to then-incumbent Gov. Dave Heineman.Clint DidierClint Didier was elected to public office in 2018 as a Franklin County Commissioner.Focus on Sport/Getty Images, AP Photo/Gene JohnsonClint Didier is a two-time Super Bowl Champion. He played tight end for what was then the Washington Redskins (now the Washington Commanders) from 1981 to 1987. During that time, the team won Super Bowls XVII and XXII.Didier went on to play for the NFL's Green Bay Packers for one year before retiring from professional football.He unsuccessfully sought public office on four separate occasions as a Republican — including two attempts to win a US House seat — and was finally elected as a Franklin County commissioner in Washington in 2018.Alan PageIn 2018, Justice Alan Page was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by President Donald Trump.Bettman/Getty Images, Calla Kessler/The Washington Post via Getty ImagesAssociate Justice Alan Page received national recognition as a defensive tackle in the NFL during his 15 season with the Minnesota Viking and Chicago Bears. He was the first defensive player in NFL history to win the league MVP award and is considered one of the greatest defensive lineman of all time.Following his football career, Page pursued a legal career and was elected as the first African-American to the Minnesota Supreme Court in in 1993. He served until 2015.In 2018, then-President Donald Trump awarded Page the Presidential Medal of Freedom.Byron WhiteThe late Byron "Whizzer" White served as a United States Supreme Court Justice from 1962-1993.Bettman/Getty Images, New York Times Co./Getty ImagesAn all-American halfback at the University of Colorado, Byron "Whizzer" White originally had no intention of playing pro football and was set to attend the University of Oxford on a Rhodes Scholarship. But, in 1938, he was drafted to the NFL by the Pittsburgh Pirates, now Steelers.Oxford allowed him to defer his acceptance and White played for Pittsburgh for one year. White also played for the Detroit Lions from 1940 to 1941.His football career was cut short, however, when he joined the Navy to fight in World War II. After the war, he finished law school and was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame in 1954.In 1962, then-President John F. Kennedy nominated him to serve on the United States Supreme Court where he was confirmed and presided until 1993.Jay RiemersmaIn 2009, former tight end for the Buffalo Bills, Jay Riemersma launched an unsuccessful campaign for Congress.George Gojkovich/Getty ImagesIn 2009, Jay Riemersma, a former tight end for the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers, launched an unsuccessful campaign for Congress in Michigan.The race was decided by fewer than 700 votes and it is believed that last-minute campaign violations may have been the cause of his political failure.Riemersma's opponent at the time claimed that Riemersma illegally coordinated his campaign strategy with a political action committee that paid for attack ads against him. Riemersma, however, called it a "last minute PR trick."It was also rumored that Riemersma used false smear tactics against his opponent, Republican Bill Cooper, who later sued Riemersma over their differences.During his time with the Bills, Riemersma showed flashes of brilliance but was plagued with injuries. He underwent eight surgeries throughout the course of his NFL career. He played six seasons for the Bills and another two with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Although Riemersma had signed a three-year contract with the Steelers, he ruptured his Achilles tendon on a 26-yard touchdown play, ending his football playing career in 2004.He ended his career with 221 receptions and 23 touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference.Phil McConkeyAs a wide receiver and punt returner for the New York Giants, Phil McConkey helped lead the team to victory in Super Bowl XXI.Icon SportswirePhil McConkey signed with the New York Giants in 1984 when he was 27 years old after playing college ball for the Naval Academy.He is most well-known for his performance with the Giants during Super Bowl XXI where he caught a six-yard touchdown pass after the ball bounced off tight end Mark Bavaro's fingertips.The wide receiver and punt returner also played for the Green Bay Packers, the Arizona Cardinals, and the San Diego Chargers. He played his last season in the NFL with in 1989.In 1990, he launched his campaign for the House in Representatives to represent New Jersey's 12th District. When asked what his future in football looked like since he decided to transition to running for public office, McConkey said he had "energy to burn.""Football is an avocation, not a vocation," McConkey told the Associated Press in 1990. Much of his campaign relied on radio and TV advertisements, as well as support from some of his former NFL teammates. He invested $40,000 of his own money into his campaign.But McConkey ended up losing a fairly tight Republican primary contest to Dick Zimmer, who'd go on to win in the general election and serve three terms in Congress.Two decades ago, McConkey flirted with a run for New York governor but opted against it. Since then, he's become an executive for a financial services company and is active in masters track competitions.Gerald FordGerald Ford was the 38th president of the United States.Bettman/Getty ImagesRepublican President Gerald Ford is the only president who was never elected as president or vice president, although he served in both capacities. He was serving in the House of Representatives when then-President Richard Nixon appointed him as his vice president in 1973. When Nixon resigned the next year, Ford became president.Before his political career took off, Ford played center, linebacker, and long snapper for the University of Michigan's football team.Although Ford never played professional football, he received offers from the NFL's Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. He turned them down to be a boxing and assistant varsity football coach at Yale University.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Republican Herschel Walker, a former NFL star, is locked in a close battle with Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock to represent Georgia. Herschel Walker, who is a Republican running for the US Senate in Georgia, played professional football for the Philadelphia Eagles in the 1990s and was also a member of the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and Minnesota Vikings.Photo by David Madison/Getty Images Georgia's upcoming runoff election will determine whether GOP candidate Herschel Walker will enter the US Senate. Walker was a notable college and professional football player. Here are other prominent politicians and government officials who've transitioned from a career football to politics. On December 6, Republican US Senate candidate Herschel Walker and Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock will face-off in their highly anticipated runoff election in Georgia. This race — one of the most expensive in US history — has garnered national media attention from start to end.For voters in the Peach State, its a choice between Warnock, a senior pastor at Atlanta's historic Ebenezer Baptist Church, versus Walker, a former college football star and ex-NFL player.Walker's football career made him a celebrity not only in Georgia where he was a standout running back, but nationwide, making his campaign launch exciting for fans of America's favorite pasttime.But the pro-baller-to-politician pipeline hardly begins with Walker.Meet 16 other political and governmental figures who played or otherwise participated in pro football before entering public office:Herschel WalkerIn 1982, Herschel Walker was awarded a Heisman Trophy for being the top player in college football. He'd go on to play professional football until 1997. In 2022, Walker launched a campaign to run for US Senate in Georgia as a Republican.Bettman/Getty Images, Jessica McGowan/Getty ImagesWalker was the star running back for the University of Georgia, where he won his Heisman Trophy in 1982. He went on to play professional football for the New Jersey Generals of the US Football League, which was partially owned by Donald Trump at the time, for three years before being drafted by the Dallas Cowboys.Walker also played for the Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, and the New York Giants. "He had what they call straight-ahead skills, which is he was fast and he was strong. And you weren't going to bring him down on your own," author Jeff Pearlman who covered much of Walker's football career told Vox's Ben Jacobs in October. "It doesn't mean he was going to juke you but he was a great athlete.As of this year, Walker is ranked in the all-time top-12 in the NFL for all-purpose yardage, according to Pro Football reference. He is a member of the College Football Hall of Fame. Walker also competed on the US Olympic two-man bobsled team in 1992.Colin AllredBefore being elected to the House of Representatives, Colin Allred was a linebacker for the Tennessee Titans.Nick Laham/Getty Images, Emil Lippe/Getty ImagesBefore embarking on his political journey, Rep. Colin Allred, a Democrat from Texas, was a linebacker for the Tennessee Titans, playing from 2006 to 2010.Allred attended Baylor University on a full-ride football scholarship and was accepted to play in the NFL immediately after graduating, leading him to defer his acceptance to law school.After five seasons in the NFL, Allred sustained a career-ending injury, bringing him back to pursuing a career as a civil rights attorney, according to Allred's official House of Representatives page.Today, he represents Texas' 32nd District, having first been elected to Congress in 2018.Tommy TubervilleSen. Tommy Tuberville is ranked as one of the top 50 most winning football coaches of all time.Chris Graythen/Getty Images, Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesRepublican Sen. Tommy Tuberville was once known as Coach Tuberville when he lead Auburn University's football team from 1999 to 2008.Tuberville is the only coach in Auburn's history to defeat their in-state rival, the University of Alabama, six consecutive times.He also served stints as assistant coach and defensive coordinator for the University of Miami and Texas A&M, before being named the head coach at the University of Mississippi, according to his website.Tuberville has also coached at Arkansas State, Texas Tech, and the University of Cincinnati. While coaching the Cinncinnati Bearcats, Tuberville earned $2.2 million a year, ranking him as the second highest in the American Athletic Conference's (AAC) pay ranks at the time, according to The Enquirer. In 2004, Tuberville was named national coach of the year.He retired from coaching the sport as one of top 50 most winningest football coaches of all time.He has been serving as a US senator from Alabama since 2021.Steve LargentDuring his time as a House representative, Largent was considered highly conservative, even by other Republicans.Focus on Sport/Getty Images, LUKE FRAZZA/AFP via Getty ImagesFormer US Rep. Steve Largent was a wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks for 14 seasons.Largent played college ball at the University of Tulsa. The Houston Oilers drafted Largent in 1976 but traded him to the Seahawks before he ever played a regular season game for the Texas team. An NFL Man of the Year winner in 1988 and Football Hall of Fame inductee in 1995, Largent only ever missed four games in his whole career because of injuries, according to the Football Hall of Fame.The Republican represented Oklahoma's 1st district from 1994 to 2002. Largent resigned from Congress to run for governor of Oklahoma in 2002 but lost in a close race.Largest later served as president of CTIA-The Wireless Association, a top Washington, D.C., trade and lobbying association, before retiring in 2014.Heath ShulerDemocratic Rep. Heath Shuler began his political career in 2006, following his retirement from the NFL.Doug Pensinger/ALLSPORT, David Howells/Corbis via Getty ImagesAfter leading his high school football team to three state championships, Joseph Heath Shuler went on to play quarterback for the University of Tennessee.Shuler's pro career began in 1994, when he was a first-round draft pick for the Washington Redskins, now known as the Washington Commanders. He received a 7-year, $19.25 million contract.But his career never really took flight.After three middling years in Washington, Shuler was traded to the New Orleans Saints. He started nine forgettable games and suffered a serious foot injury that took two surgeries to correct. He signed a contract with the Oakland Raiders, but re-injured his foot during training camp, so he was cut and later retired.In all, Shuler threw 15 touchdowns against 33 interceptions as a professional, according to Pro Football Reference.Shuler, a Democrat, was elected to represent North Carolina's 11th District in 2007. He did not seek re-election in 2012 and served in Congress until 2013.Since then, he's worked as a lobbyist and is now a senior advisor at law firm BakerHostetler.Donald TrumpIn 1983, Donald Trump bought the United States Football League's New Jersey Generals. He purchased the team for around $20 million, in today's dollars.Circa Images/GHI/Universal History Archive/Universal Images Group via Getty Images, Tasos Katopodis/Getty ImagesEven former President Donald Trump had a brief stint with professional football — although not with the NFL.In 1983, the then-business tycoon bought the United States Football League's (USFL) New Jersey Generals. He purchased the team for around $20 million, in today's dollars. Trump's running back for the Generals was none-other than Herschel Walker. However, Trump was widely cited for the failure of the USFL because he cared too much about merging with the NFL than he did about the team he owned."I think it was a big mistake," Dr. Ted Diethrich, one of the league's original owners, told USA Today at the time. "When that decision was made, the course for this was charted, and it was going to be a wreck."In 2014, Trump re-entered the football realm when he faced off with Jon Bon Jovi and the Pegula family to purchase the Buffalo Bills. But Trump underbid, and the Pegula family ultimately purchased the team.Less than a year later, Trump announced a bid for the presidency, ultimately winning the Republican Party nomination and defeating Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in one of the biggest political upsets in modern American history.Trump served as president from 2017 to 2021. He lost his bid for a second presidential term to current President Joe Biden. He has refused to accept the results of the 2020 election, claiming it was riddled with fraud. And in November, Trump officially announced he will run for president in 2024.Trump, who himself played football at the New York Military Academy as a youth, has long been in what Insider dubs "The Pigskin War" over players, team ownership, coaches, social injustice, Deflategate, and safety issues with the NFL.Jon RunyanRepublican Rep. Jon Runyan was elected to represent New Jersey after he retired from playing professional football.Joseph Labolito/Getty Images, Tom Williams/Roll CallRepublican Rep. Jon Runyan was elected to represent New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District in 2011, serving until 2015 after deciding not to seek a third term.Before entering politics, Runyan Sports Illustrated labeled him one of the "dirtiest players in the NFL" in its October 2006 issue.Most notably, Runyan, known as "The Enforcer," was an offensive lineman for the Philadelphia Eagles where he signed a $30 million contract, making him the highest paid offensive lineman at the time.He also had a stint with the Tennessee Titans from from 1996 to 1999. After a micro-fracture surgery on his knee and his Eagles contract expired in 2009, Runyan played five games with the San Diego Chargers before retiring later that year. Runyan's son, Jon Runyan Jr., is following in his father's footsteps and is currently a football guard for the Green Bay Packers.Jack KempThe late Jack Kemp served as a Republican on the House of Representatives from 1971 to 1989.Focus on Sport/Getty Images, Cynthia Johnson/Getty ImagesPre-politics, Jack Kemp played professional football as one of the most notable quarterbacks of his era.Kemp played from 1957 to 1969 across three pro leagues — the NFL, the Canadian Football League, and the American Football League.Kemp was captain of both the San Diego Chargers and Buffalo Bills. In 1965, he received the AFL Most Valuable Player award after leading the Bills to their second consecutive AFL championship.Kemp quickly entered politics after retiring from football.He served not only as a member of the US House of Representatives for New York from 1971 to 1989, but also as secretary of Housing and Urban Development during the George H. W. Bush Administration.In 1996, Kemp was the Republican vice presidential pick for presidential candidate Bob Dole, who lost to the Democratic ticket of Bill Clinton and Al Gore.Kemp, who died in 2009, also made an unsuccessful bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 1988.J.C. WattsRep. Julius Ceasar "J.C." Watts Jr. attended the University of Oklahoma on a football scholarship and then went on to play professional in the Canadian Football League.Mark Perlstein/Getty Images, © Wally McNamee/CORBIS/Corbis via Getty ImagesJulius Caesar Jr. "J.C." Watts started his football career in high school where he was the star quarterback, leading him to receive a football scholarship to the University of Oklahoma. Watts was originally drafted by the NFL's New York Jets, but they weren't able to guarantee him a position as quarterback, so he opted to play professionally in the Canadian Football League during the early- and mid-1980s, mostly with the Ottawa Rough Riders.He retired from football in 1986 and became a Baptist minister. Watts served in Congress starting in 1995 and represented Okalahoma's 3rd District until 2003.Watts then became a lobbyist.Anthony GonzalezAnthony Gonzalez was drafted by the Indianapolis Colts in 2007 after playing college football at Ohio State University.G. N. Lowrance/Getty Images, Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty ImagesVoters elected Republican Rep. Anthony Gonzalez to the House of Representatives in for the first time in 2018.He won re-election in 2020 but did not seek a third term in 2022 after voting to impeach Trump and otherwise running afoul of the former president. Gonzalez will exit Congress in January."While my desire to build a fuller family life is at the heart of my decision, it is also true that the current state of our politics, especially many of the toxic dynamics inside our party, is a significant factor in my decision," Gonzalez said in 2021 when announcing his decision.Before he began his political career, Gonzalez played wide receiver for the Indianapolis Colts from 2007 to 2011, catching 99 passes and seven touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference. He also had a brief stint with the New England Patriots before retiring from the sport in 2012.Before being drafted into the NFL, Gonzalez played college ball for Ohio State University.Burgess OwensGOP Rep. Burgess Owens of Utah, played professional football for the Oakland Raiders and the New York Jets.Focus on Sport/Getty Images, Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty ImagesAfter graduating from the University of Miami, Burgess Owens was drafted by the New York Jets in 1973.He played safety for the Jets until moving to the Oakland Raiders and Los Angeles Raiders. In 1980, he played for the Raiders' Super Bowl XV championship team.During his career, he notched 30 interceptions, returning four of them for touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference.When he played college football for the University of Miami, Owens was one of only four Black athletes recruited that year and one of three to receive a scholarship. A Republican, Owens assumed political office in 2021 to represent Utah's 4th District. Owens is a frequent contributor for Fox News and has been endorsed by Donald Trump. Tom OsborneTom Osborne won the ESPN Coach of the Decade award in 1999.John D. Hanlon/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images, Tom Williams/Roll Call/Getty ImagesIn the early 1960s, Tom Osborne played in the NFL for the Washington Redskins — now known as the Washington Commanders — after the San Francisco 49ers initially drafted him in 1959.But Osborne is most remembered for his 25 seasons coaching the University of Nebraska's Cornhuskers.During this time, Osborne's teams never won fewer than nine games in a single season, and he posted three undefeated seasons.Nebraska renamed their Memorial Stadium in 1998, calling it "Tom Osborne Field." In 1999, Osborne was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame and was named ESPN's "Coach of the Decade" for the 1990s. He represented Nebraska's 3rd district as a Republican from 2001 to 2007. Osborne ran for governor of Nebraska in 2006 but lost in a Republican primary to then-incumbent Gov. Dave Heineman.Clint DidierClint Didier was elected to public office in 2018 as a Franklin County Commissioner.Focus on Sport/Getty Images, AP Photo/Gene JohnsonClint Didier is a two-time Super Bowl Champion. He played tight end for what was then the Washington Redskins (now the Washington Commanders) from 1981 to 1987. During that time, the team won Super Bowls XVII and XXII.Didier went on to play for the NFL's Green Bay Packers for one year before retiring from professional football.He unsuccessfully sought public office on four separate occasions as a Republican — including two attempts to win a US House seat — and was finally elected as a Franklin County commissioner in Washington in 2018.Alan PageIn 2018, Justice Alan Page was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by President Donald Trump.Bettman/Getty Images, Calla Kessler/The Washington Post via Getty ImagesAssociate Justice Alan Page received national recognition as a defensive tackle in the NFL during his 15 season with the Minnesota Viking and Chicago Bears. He was the first defensive player in NFL history to win the league MVP award and is considered one of the greatest defensive lineman of all time.Following his football career, Page pursued a legal career and was elected as the first African-American to the Minnesota Supreme Court in in 1993. He served until 2015.In 2018, then-President Donald Trump awarded Page the Presidential Medal of Freedom.Byron WhiteThe late Byron "Whizzer" White served as a United States Supreme Court Justice from 1962-1993.Bettman/Getty Images, New York Times Co./Getty ImagesAn all-American halfback at the University of Colorado, Byron "Whizzer" White originally had no intention of playing pro football and was set to attend the University of Oxford on a Rhodes Scholarship. But, in 1938, he was drafted to the NFL by the Pittsburgh Pirates, now Steelers.Oxford allowed him to defer his acceptance and White played for Pittsburgh for one year. White also played for the Detroit Lions from 1940 to 1941.His football career was cut short, however, when he joined the Navy to fight in World War II. After the war, he finished law school and was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame in 1954.In 1962, then-President John F. Kennedy nominated him to serve on the United States Supreme Court where he was confirmed and presided until 1993.Jay RiemersmaIn 2009, former tight end for the Buffalo Bills, Jay Riemersma launched an unsuccessful campaign for Congress.George Gojkovich/Getty ImagesIn 2009, Jay Riemersma, a former tight end for the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers, launched an unsuccessful campaign for Congress in Michigan.The race was decided by fewer than 700 votes and it is believed that last-minute campaign violations may have been the cause of his political failure.Riemersma's opponent at the time claimed that Riemersma illegally coordinated his campaign strategy with a political action committee that paid for attack ads against him. Riemersma, however, called it a "last minute PR trick."It was also rumored that Riemersma used false smear tactics against his opponent, Republican Bill Cooper, who later sued Riemersma over their differences.During his time with the Bills, Riemersma showed flashes of brilliance but was plagued with injuries. He underwent eight surgeries throughout the course of his NFL career. He played six seasons for the Bills and another two with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Although Riemersma had signed a three-year contract with the Steelers, he ruptured his Achilles tendon on a 26-yard touchdown play, ending his football playing career in 2004.He ended his career with 221 receptions and 23 touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference.Gerald FordGerald Ford was the 38th president of the United States.Bettman/Getty ImagesRepublican President Gerald Ford is the only president who was never elected as president or vice president, although he served in both capacities. He was serving in the House of Representatives when then-President Richard Nixon appointed him as his vice president in 1973. When Nixon resigned the next year, Ford became president.Before his political career took off, Ford played center, linebacker, and long snapper for the University of Michigan's football team.Although Ford never played professional football, he received offers from the NFL's Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. He turned them down to be a boxing and assistant varsity football coach at Yale University.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Why Is Booz Allen Renting Us Back Our Own National Parks? Authored by Matt Stoller via BIG, “I Seen My Opportunities and I Took ’Em.” - George Washington Plunkitt of Tammany Hall Vermilion Cliffs National Monument in Arizona. Photo courtesy of the Bureau of Land Management. Some rights reserved. Two of the classic works of late 19th century American political literature, representing precisely opposite views of how commerce in an industrialized democracy ought to work, are Henry George’s Progress and Poverty, and the speeches of George Washington Plunkitt of Tammany Hall. George was one of the great political economists of his day, and he ran and lost for mayor of New York City on an anti-monopoly and land reform ticket. George was interested in why we experienced tremendous inequality in the midst of great wealth, and traced it to the exploitation of land. George was an international superstar, influencing both Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson, as well as environmentalists and the modern libertarian movement. (There’s an iconic statue of the greatest mayor in Cleveland history, Tom Johnson, with Johnson holding a copy of Progress and Poverty.) The modern academic profession of economics arose in part as a reaction to the popular success of George’s work. The game Monopoly comes directly from George, and in many ways, the national parks, as well as everything from spectrum allocation to offshore oil drilling, must wrestle with Georgeist thinking. But by land, he meant far more than just the plots upon which we live. “The term land,” George wrote, “necessarily includes, not merely the surface of the earth as distinguished from the water and the air, but the whole material universe outside of man himself, for it is only by having access to land, from which his very body is drawn, that man can come in contact with or use nature.” Unlike Marx, who saw the exploitation of capital over labor, George thought that the root of social disorder was a result of the power of the landowner over both capital and labor. By land, he meant all value drawn purely from nature or from collective human existence. He would, for instance, consider ‘network effects’ a form of land, and likely seek regulation or national control of search engines. George had his first run-in with monopoly in San Francisco, where a telegraph monopolist destroyed his newspaper by denying him wire service. But his key work, in 1879, was written before the rise of the giant trusts, just as railroads, which were really land kingdoms, were becoming dominant. A much more cynical set of works are the speeches of Plunkitt. Plunkitt was a political boss in New York City, a proud machine politician in office at the same time in the same political arena as George. Both men were interested in modern industry and wealth, and in both cases, the key fulcrum around which power flowed was not capital, but land. But while George sought a better world, Plunkitt just wanted to get rich, and saw in the purchase of land one of the key ways to do that. Plunkitt’s key moral guidepost was the practical wielding of political power to enrich oneself. He posited something called “Honest Graft,” which he distinguished from crime in a formulation that every important corporate lobbyist, knowingly or not, has since used. To Plunkitt, stealing would be taking something that doesn’t belong to you. But if you happened to know that the city would need a piece of land, and you got there first, well, that was simply smart. As Plunkitt put it: "I could get nothin' at a bargain but a big piece of swamp, but I took it fast enough and held on to it. What turned out was just what I counted on. They couldn't make the park complete without Plunkitt's swamp, and they had to pay a good price for it. Anything dishonest in that?" George was part of the land reform anti-monopoly school of Anglo-American thought, from Frederick Douglass to Thaddeus Stevens. Plunkitt was a machine politician, and proud of it. The battle between these two elements of America, the desire to conserve the public weal versus the desire to cynically plunder it, is still fierce today. It will probably never end. And that brings me to the political conflict over our national parks, and the strange situation whereby a large government contractor, Booz Allen, somehow found itself in a position to rent us back our own land. Red Rock Canyon in Nevada. Every day, visitors to Vermilion Cliffs National Monument in Northern Arizona hike into an area named Coyote Buttes North to see one of the “most visually striking geologic sandstone formations in the world,” which is known as The Wave. On an ancient layer of sandstone, millions of years of water and wind erosion crafted 3,000-foot cliffs, weird red canyons that look like you are on the planet Mars, and giant formations that look like crashing waves made of rock. There are old carvings known as ‘petroglyphs’ on cliff walls, and even “dinosaur tracks embedded in the sediment.” The Wave is unlike anywhere else on Earth. It is also part of a U.S. national park, and thus technically, it’s open to anyone. Yet, to preserve its natural beauty, the Bureau of Land Management lets just 64 people daily visit the area. Snagging one of these slots is an accomplishment, a ticket into The Wave is known as “The Hardest Permit to Get in the USA” by Outside and Backpacker Magazines. To apply requires going to Recreation.gov, the site set up to manage national parks, public cultural landmarks, and public lands, and paying $9 for a “Lottery Application Fee.” If you win, you get a permit, and pay a recreation fee of $7. The success rate for the lottery is between 4-10%, and some people spend upwards of $500 before securing an actual permit. But while the recreation fee of $7 goes to maintaining the park - which is what Henry George would appreciate - the money for the “Lottery Application Fee” is pure Plunkitt. That money goes to the giant D.C. consulting firm, Booz Allen and Company. In fact, since 2017, more and more of America’s public lands - over 4,200 facilities and 113,000 individual sites across the country at last count - have been added to the Recreation.gov database and website run by Booz Allen, which in turn captures various fees that Americans pay to visit their national heritage. You can do a lot at Recreation.gov. You can sign up for a pass to cut down a Christmas tree on the Arapaho and Roosevelt National Forests, get permits to fly-fishing, rifle hunting or target practice at thousands of sites, or even secure a tour at the National Archives in Washington, D.C. There are dozens of lotteries to enter for different parks and lands that are hard to access. And all of them come with service fees attached, fees that go directly to Booz Allen, which built Recreation.gov. The deeper you go, the more interesting the gatekeeping. As one angry writer found out after waiting on hold and being transferred multiple times, the answer is that Booz Allen “actually sets the Recreation.gov fees for themselves.” Lately, hundreds of sites have begun requiring the use of the site. A typical example is Red Rock Canyon, which added "timed entry permit" in the past two years. Such parks, before adding these new processes, usually do a "trial" period followed by a public comment period, and then the fees are approved by a Resource Advisory Council, objects of derision composed of people appointed by the government bureaus. As one person involved in the process told me, these councils are sort of ridiculous. “Agencies fill it with people beholden to them,” he said. “so the council playing committee rubber stamps whatever they send their way, often even if it makes no sense.” The entry permit almost always become permanent. This includes heavily visited lands like Acadia National Park (4 million annual visitors), Arches National Park (1.5 million), Glacier National Park (3 million), Rocky Mountain National Park (4.4 million), and Yosemite (3.3 million). There’s nothing wrong with charging a fee for the use of a national park, as long as that fee is necessary for the upkeep and is used to maintain the public resource. That was in fact the point of the law passed in 2004 - the Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act - to give permanent authority to government agencies to charge fees for the use of public lands. But what Booz Allen is doing is different. The incentives are creating the same dynamics for public lands that we see with junk fees across the economy. Just as airlines are charging for carry-on bags and hotels are forcing people to pay ‘resort fees,’ some national parks are now requiring reservations with fees attached. And as scalpers automatically grabbed Taylor Swift tickets from Ticketmaster using high-speed automated programs, there are now bots booking campsites. None of this is criminal, though the fee structure may not be lawful, but it is very George Washington Plunkitt. “I Seen My Opportunities,” he said, “and I Took ’Em.” Honest Graft The entry point for Booz Allen can be traced back to the Obama administration, and a giant failed IT project. In 2010, Congress passed the Affordable Care Act, pledging that by 2014, the government would have a website up in which uninsured Americans could buy health insurance with various subsidies. In perhaps one of the most embarrassing moments of the Obama administration, Healthcare.gov failed to launch the day the new health law came into force, and millions couldn’t sign up to take advantage of it. It’s hard to overstate the shame of that moment. The government had spent $400 million over four years - more time than it took the U.S. to enter and win World War II - and yet, the dozens of contractors couldn’t set up a website to take sign-ups. The whole thing was an embarrassing disaster, a festival of incompetence and greed. (Despite the failure, the main IT contractor’s CEO became a billionaire. Honest graft indeed.) President Obama hired Google’s Mike Dickerson to come in and fix the Healthcare.gov website, which Dickerson and his team did. This wasn’t some miracle, it’s not like websites were new technology. The government itself created the internet and most of the underpinnings of digital technology, and it had many functional and important systems. But the Google name at that point was magic, and so the U.S. Digital Service, designed to help the government use technology, was born. After Dickerson, the new head was Google’s Matt Cutts, and then health care monopolist Optum’s Mina Hsiang. The U.S. Digital Service, far from being particularly competent, is a branding exercise. It is full of people from Amazon and Google, and tends to push the government to outsource its technology to third party contractors. Following the U.S. Digital Service’s playbook is what led the government to bid out and allow the creation of Recreation.gov, with its weird and corrupt fee structure. In 2017, Booz Allen got a 10-year $182 million contract to consolidate all booking for public lands and waters, with 13 separate agencies participating, from the Bureau of Land Management to the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration to the National Park Service to the Smithsonian Institution to the Tennessee Valley Authority to the US Forest Service. The funding structure of the site is exactly what George Washington Plunkitt would design. Though there’s a ten year contract with significant financial outlays, Booz Allen says the project was built “at no cost to the federal government.” In the contractor’s words, “the unique contractual agreement is a transaction-based fee model that lets the government and Booz Allen share in risk, reward, results, and impact.” In other words, Booz Allen gets to keep the fees charged to users who want access to national parks. Part of the deal was that Booz Allen would get the right to negotiate fees to third party sites that want access to data on Federal lands. It’s a bit hard to tell how much Booz Allen was paid to set up the site. Documents suggest the firm received a lot of money to do so, but it’s also possible that total amount was the anticipated financial return. I wrote to Recreation.gov team leader Julie McPherson at Booz Allen to find out what they were paid to build the site, and I haven’t heard back. Regardless, there’s a lot of money involved. For instance, as one camper noted, in just one lottery to hike Mount Whitney, more than 16,000 people applied, and only a third got in. Yet everyone paid the $6 registration fee, which means the gross income for that single location is over $100,000. There’s nothing criminal about this scheme, but it is a form of Honest Graft, or of handing a Ticketmaster-like firm control of our national parks. Judgment Day In 2020, an avid hiker named Thomas Kotab sued the Bureau of Land Management over the $2 “processing fee it charges to access the mandatory online reservation system to visit the Red Rock Canyon Conservation Area.” He claimed, among other things, that the Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act mandated that this fee was unlawful, because it had not gone through the notice-and-comment period required by the act. Kotab, an electrical engineer by training, is one of those ass-kickers in America, who just goes after a grift because, well, it’s just wrong. A few years later, a judge named Jennifer A. Dorsey, appointed by Obama in 2013, agreed with him. She looked at the statute and found that Congress authorized the charging of recreation fees for the purpose of taking care and using Federal lands, not administrative fees that compensated third parties. As such, Booz Allen’s ability to set its own prices was inconsistent with the law mandating the public’s right to comment on what we are charged for using our own land. The BLM sought to appeal, but then dropped it in July. Rather than a bitter procedural argument about classifying fees, the government and Booz Allen have decided they’ll just go through the annoying process of having the public comment on Booz Allen’s compensation, and then ignore us using their phony advisory council process. Here, for instance, is the Mojave-Southern Great Basin Resource Advisory Council Meeting in August simply proposing to substitute new standard amenity fees “equal to the associated Recreation.gov reservation service fee.” One notable part of this saga is that technically, the BLM and Booz Allen owe refunds to everyone who went through Red Rock Canyon’s timed entry system from 2020-2022, but they’ll probably ignore that and steal the money. That verges into actual graft from the ‘honest’ type, but I suspect Plunkitt did that as well from time to time. And yet, it’s not over. The Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act authorization runs out in October of 2023, which means that Congress has to renew it. Hopefully, an interested member of Congress who loves Federal lands could actually tighten the definitions here, and find a way to stop Booz Allen and these 13 government agencies from engaging in this minor theft via junk fees. It wouldn’t be hard, and it would be fun to force a bunch of government agencies to actually do their job and either take over the site themselves or pay Booz Allen a fee for its service. (Another path would be Joe Biden, through his anti-junk fee initiative, simply asserting through the White House Competition Council to the 13 different agencies that they end Booz Allen’s practice of charging these kinds of fees.) It’s easy enough to see scams everywhere, and here is certainly one of them. But let’s not lose sight of the broader point. Henry George, at least in this fight, has won. Yes, Booz Allen gets to steal some pennies, but we have a remarkable system of public lands and waters that are broadly available for all of us to use on a relatively equal basis. And we can still see the power of George-ism in the advocacy of hikers and in the intense view that members of Congress had when they passed the Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act in 2004, which strictly regulated fees that Americans would have to pay to access our Federal lands. Indeed, the anger and revulsion I felt at the fees Booz Allen puts forward comes from George, even if I didn’t necessarily trace it there at first. We are in a moment of institutional corruption, but these moments are transitory as institutions change. George Washington Plunkitt, and his political descendants at Booz Allen, might have gotten rich, but Henry George imparted instincts to Americans that are far more permanent. Tyler Durden Thu, 12/01/2022 - 22:15.....»»

Trump announced that he's running for president in 2024. Insider previously spoke with Cruz, Rubio, and others who had front-row seats to his rise. Donald Trump defeated 16 Republicans en route to winning the 2016 GOP presidential nomination. History books would be written very differently had that not happened.Marianne Ayala/InsiderThe most famous escalator ride in American political history was almost an elevator ride. Donald Trump's operatives couldn't decide whether to send him down the escalator to announce his presidential candidacy or have him take the elevator instead. They landed on the escalator, and that moment would set in motion a 13-month ride that would ultimately ensconce him atop the GOP as its 2016 standard-bearer.On Tuesday, Trump officially announced his 2024 presidential bid, marking the start of yet another race in his storied political career. Seventeen Republicans aspired to be president of the United States during the 2016 election cycle, one of the most unorthodox and unconventional the country had ever seen. Only one emerged from the pileup — Trump — who would learn he was the nominee on the Trump Tower elevator he almost descended on back on announcement day.During those tumultuous months from June 2015 to July 2016, the Republican Party establishment's reluctant journey to accepting a reality-TV celebrity as their presidential nominee laid bare deep ideological and cultural divisions within their ranks. Traditional Republicans found themselves outflanked by an insurgent former lifelong Democrat whose impulses and approach conflicted with their own. But by the time of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland five years ago this week, running from July 18 through the 21st, Republicans who did not support Trump fell in line.In interviews with nearly two dozen people — including several 2016 Republican candidates, party officials, and both GOP and Democratic campaign operatives — Insider collected never-before-reported recollections from Trump's hostile takeover of the GOP. The story that follows covers the Trump Tower escalator ride that was mocked from all directions and yet started everything; the Trump official behind renting a crowd for the big campaign announcement speech; and Melania Trump's plagiarism of Michelle Obama's Democratic National Convention speech eight years earlier.These 2016 insiders also described how the Trump team prepared for the first GOP debate in Cleveland by hanging with a member of Aerosmith and how his campaign polled Ivanka Trump as a vice-presidential candidate amid the RNC's last-minute gambit to dump Trump.The human drama of the Republican primary campaign has been all but forgotten, replaced by what came after: Trump versus Hillary, Russian hackings, WikiLeaks, and the infamous "Access Hollywood" tape — and the four ensuing wild years that roiled the nation and the world.But for any of that to happen, Trump must first become the leader of the GOP. What you are about to read is the oral history of that story.Chapter 1: The escalatorFor 29 years before his fateful escalator ride, Trump toyed with the idea of running for president. This time he was serious. Aides carefully planned and scripted the event and his remarks; Trump improvised.Corey Lewandowski, Trump campaign manager: We had a number of variables which we had to factor in, which was either come down the elevators in the back of the room and have him walk out through a blue curtain and onto the stage, or come down into the lobby, come down that now famous escalator ride, and then go up onto the stage. But what our goal was, was making him look as presidential from the very onset, which means the American flag behind him, the stage was exactly how we wanted it, with a podium, with the same type of microphone that presidents traditionally use.The most famous escalator ride in US political history.Christopher Gregory/Getty ImagesDonald McGahn, Trump campaign counsel: I was at the top. He went down. And I remember seeing the crowd go nuts.Adrienne Elrod, Hillary for America director of strategic communications: We all kind of stopped what we were doing and chuckled at the fact that this is happening. And we all kind of said, "Yeah, he's going to be in the race for about six weeks. He'll use this to make some more money and grow the Trump brand and try to launch a new television show."Sarah Isgur, deputy campaign manager for Carly Fiorina: What a weird thing for the advance team to think was OK — like him standing on this escalator.Tim Miller, communications director for Jeb Bush: I thought it was a ridiculous show.Corey Lewandowski: We had people who were on the periphery of the campaign and thought they were campaign strategists who wanted to have elephants and monkeys and donkeys running through Trump Tower.Donald McGahn: There was a lot of building security checking each other's credentials, because we had different levels of credentials. It took them a while to realize there was a hierarchy of credentials. There were security guards telling other security guards to move.Corey Lewandowski: There were five different sets of credentials and all-access to media and volunteers. They all had the wrong date printed on it. They all said June 16, 2016. So we had to send this poor woman by the name of Joy out to Brooklyn at, like, 3 o'clock in the morning to get these reprinted, because we knew that if it wasn't perfect we'd be chastised.Josh Schwerin, Hillary for America national spokesman: He was not a serious person at that point. There had been debate of will-he-won't-he for a really long time. It didn't seem like a serious thing.Sarah Isgur: I remember thinking: "Man, I'm surprised he couldn't even get people there. That seems insane."Amanda Carpenter, communications director for Ted Cruz: It seemed strange. I was watching the coverage of "Oh, did they pay people to show up? Who were these people?"Corey Lewandowski: That's a Michael Cohen special. Michael Cohen decided that he was going to go hire one of his buddies and pay his buddy without getting any campaign approval. You know, $50 for every person to come in, to stand in Trump Tower.I literally spent the entire day of Trump's announcement screaming at TV executives. Tim MillerMichael Cohen, Trump personal attorney: Trump hired David Schwartz to coordinate the campaign launch, which he did professionally. Any allegation of payments to actors is an absolute lie that was promoted by Corey Lewandowski.David Schwartz, partner at Gotham Government Relations: We were hired to put that entire event together. That event was really our brainchild: The most famous escalator ride in the history of politics was that one. Bottom line is, we had thousands of people there, and then the press accused us of hiring thousands of actors. Based on the fee that I got, that would not have been a good business decision on anyone's part. The reality is we hired 50 people, some of whom were part-time actors I found out later on. But we hired 50 people to help coordinate an event that brought in thousands of people. There were people at the door that couldn't get in. That night, all of the sudden, I got accused of hiring thousands of actors.Tim Miller: So Trump is going to speak, and Sean Hannity was going to give Trump Jeb's slot that night, because they announced the same day. So I'm standing outside Bed Bath & Beyond in Miami, shouting at Hannity, like, "What the F is your problem?" F this and F that. "How can you give this guy our slot?" Then I remember going in to shop and coming out and yelling at some other anchors. I literally spent the entire day of Trump's announcement screaming at TV executives.Corey Lewandowski: He did not deliver one word of the speech as it was written. We provided the speech to every media outlet and said, "Remarks as prepared by Donald Trump for his announcement speech." There were some media outlets that actually just printed them verbatim. Probably had egg on their face afterward. Because as we know, Donald Trump went on to speak extemporaneously for 45 minutes and talk about some of the individuals coming across the border that were never in the original speech. And I assume some are good people.Trump promised to make America great again and vowed to take on the growing might of China in a speech launching his run for the presidency in 2016. He made his way to the stage as Neil Young's "Rockin' in the Free World" played.Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty ImagesAmanda Carpenter: I was, like, "OK, well, at least he's talking about mostly our type of issues. People will realize he's a clown. And then this whole thing will melt like cotton candy. And we'll be back to maybe a Jeb, Rubio, Cruz race."Lindsey Graham, GOP senator and 2016 presidential candidate: I thought his announcement was pretty extreme. I thought the rhetoric around his announcement and some of his policy positions would make it almost disqualifying.Chapter 2: Early disastersA month after his campaign announcement, at the Family Leadership Summit in Ames, Iowa, Trump attacked Sen. John McCain. The Arizona senator and 2008 Republican presidential nominee had been a prisoner of war in Vietnam. "He's not a war hero," Trump told the moderator Frank Luntz. "He's a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren't captured." It proved to be the first of a series of moments early on when it looked like Trump's campaign was over before it had even really begun.Marco Rubio, GOP senator and 2016 presidential candidate: Look, everybody — every traditional observer of politics — thought his campaign was dead when he said the things he said about John McCain.GOP Sen. John McCain of Arizona in the US Capitol in July 2015, days after Trump said the Vietnam POW was "not a war hero."Andrew Harnik/AP PhotoCorey Lewandowski: We had a whole day planned in Iowa that day. I remember it very vividly. I waited for Mr. Trump to walk off the stage, and I said, "I'd like to speak to you." He said, "I was pretty good, right?" I said, "Sir, could I speak to you over here for a second, please?" We went into a locker room, which is where the referees or umpires, depending on the sport, would get dressed in that gymnasium. And I said: "Sir, by all accounts, John McCain is a war hero. You need to apologize." He said, "Yeah, no apologies."Marco Rubio: That was a pretty early sign that the dynamics of American politics have changed. Part of it is just the way the public now consumes political news. It's very different than 20 years ago. It's covered more like entertainment or sports, and less like public policy. It was a perfect forum for a candidate with a message and the experience that he had.I called my wife just as we were getting onto the plane. I said, 'Hey, baby, I'm coming home.' She said, 'Oh, the day is over?' I said, 'No, no — the campaign is over.' She said, 'What do you mean?' I said: 'It's over. We're done.' Corey Lewandowski, Trump campaign managerCorey Lewandowski: I called my wife just as we were getting onto the plane. I said, "Hey, baby, I'm coming home." She said, "Oh, the day is over?" I said, "No, no — the campaign is over." She said, "What do you mean?" I said: "It's over. We're done."We flew from Iowa back to New Jersey, and this guy Dave picked us up in the car and we drove over to Mr. Trump's home. As we walked in the door, Mrs. Trump was waiting for us. She said: "You're right. John McCain isn't a war hero. What he has done for the veterans has been shameful." In the meantime, I'd been getting phone calls from every major political pundit and conservative talk-show host except Rush Limbaugh. They were all telling me that Donald Trump had to apologize — that his race was over if he didn't apologize immediately.Michael Cohen: Melania played a very limited role during the campaign not believing Donald would actually win. However, when directly asked for her opinion on a matter by Donald, she offered it readily.Chapter 3: The DebatesOn August 6, inside Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, 10 Republican presidential candidates took part in the first debate. Trump was a neophyte to debates, and his team was more interested in hanging out with the Aerosmith lead guitarist Joe Perry than prepping, auguring the alchemy of entertainment and politics that would define the Trump era. If Trump was a made-for-television candidate, he benefited from the unconventional nature of that cycle's nearly dozen debates, spanning from August 2015 to March 2016.Corey Lewandowski: We had a little bit of downtime before we went over to the arena. We landed the plane in Cleveland, and we got a phone call from Don McGahn, who was then our general counsel. "Hey, Aerosmith is close by. Do you mind if they bring their tour bus over and party with us for a little while?" We said, "100% — bring Aerosmith over!"Donald McGahn: Close, but that's a little off.Corey Lewandowski: So we sat there with Aerosmith about an hour before the debate, swapping stories of Aerosmith as opposed to doing debate prep.Steven Tyler of Aerosmith listens from the audience during the first official 2016 Republican presidential debate in Cleveland.Brian Snyder/ReutersDonald McGahn: It wasn't the whole band. It was Joe Perry. He was intrigued by the emerging Trump phenomenon. Remember, this was before there were any primary debates, and it was all new to everyone. Stuff that would be from Mars on any other campaign was perfectly normal for the Trump campaign.By this point, Trump was getting ready for the debate, so Joe had to wait a little bit. On the way out the door, Trump says something about "rock stars have all the ladies," which apparently Perry got mad at, because he's been married for decades and takes all that stuff pretty seriously. After the debate, if you watch the film, Joe goes up on stage and finds Trump and proceeds to tell him that he's married and he doesn't sleep around.The subtext is that Steven Tyler already had tickets to the debate through some other wing of Trump Org. Joe didn't want to be upstaged — wanted to meet with Trump rather than just go to the debate. Apparently, there's a whole internal Aerosmith thing among the political persuasion of the band.After the first debate, the prime-time contests took on a familiar pattern, with Trump becoming their draw and center of gravity.Marco Rubio: The first time I got on the debate stage, there were, like, 100 people on stage. So it was a very unique race, because you had so many different people running.Rand Paul, GOP senator and 2016 presidential candidate: I blame as much as anything the media. The media organizes the debates.Sarah Isgur: It wasn't a debate. You were debating yourself. How could you use your time as effectively, and where can you jump in on a question that wasn't to you?The top-polling 2016 Republican presidential candidates in August 2015 at their first official debate in Cleveland. From left: Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Scott Walker, Trump, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and John Kasich.Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesCorey Lewandowski: Let me just remind you, Trump had never been on the debate stage. And he was going up against a Princeton-educated debate champion in Ted Cruz, and career politicians and executives who've done this their entire life. So we spent time talking to Mr. Trump about some of the possible questions that would come up. We wrote one-liners on every candidate, just so he would have a quick retort if he wanted that.Rand Paul: It's hard to have much exchange when you don't get much time. It's unfair the way the debates are set up. They really make it impossible for the underdog to have much of a chance.Lindsey Graham: I never got on the big stage. That's frustrating. I was never able to poll well enough.Sean Spicer, chief strategist and communications director for the Republican National Committee: You're sitting there and watching Trump say, "Yeah, I don't know." And you think, "OK, that would have been a death knell for anybody else. It would have been, like, 'Boom — you're out.'"Josh Hawley, GOP candidate for Missouri attorney general: The one debate I remember, he starts by attacking Rand Paul. "I don't know why Rand Paul is even on the stage." I remember thinking, "I can't believe he's saying this stuff out loud." You can understand why people are watching the debates. Because you wonder, "Well, what's gonna happen next?"Rick Gates, deputy Trump campaign chairman: Donald Trump had this amazing ability to size people up — a "Little Marco" — in literally a one- or two-word phrase that so encapsulated who they were that people said: "This guy is absolutely right. He's telling us the truth." So it was almost impossible to compete with Donald Trump in that regard.Corey Lewandowski: Everyone has a plan until you get punched in the face. And we just kept punching people in the face.Tim Miller: If you're designing a candidate to do a poor job of being the one to go head-to-head with Trump, it would be Jeb. He was an easy punching bag because of his family. He's not an alpha type on a debate stage.—NTA by Mic (@NavigatingTrump) March 4, 2016Josh Schwerin: The most memorable debate experience? I was on the road, and it was the one where Trump and Rubio got into an argument about hand size, which I then had to brief President Clinton on. Which was one of the more awkward moments in my life, I would say. We were in Louisiana. He didn't at first believe me that this was the topic of a debate. I had to show him the CNN headline. I tried to not add any commentary and just let him read it for himself. Because it was not the most comfortable conversation to have with the former president of the United States. He was amused, but also really aghast that this is what they had devolved to.The evening after the Cleveland debate, with exhaustion setting in, Trump ignited another controversy when he phoned into "CNN Tonight" with Don Lemon and said that the Fox debate moderator Megyn Kelly had "blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever." Kelly had aggressively questioned Trump about his past comments about women, and his post-debate commentary would only further solidify the narrative that Trump had a problem with sexism.Sean Spicer: I think she thought that was going to be the gotcha moment.Corey Lewandowski: I remember getting a phone call that Friday night. I was in my apartment in New York at, like, 9 o'clock — we were supposed to be traveling to South Carolina the next day — from a guy by the name of Erick Erickson. And he says, "I just listened to the interview, and I've got teenage daughters and a wife, and Donald Trump is no longer invited to my event, because it was such an egregious thing to do."I didn't even know what the hell he was talking about. I said, "What happened?" I call Mr. Trump, and he says: "Yeah, I don't know. Maybe I said something." I again tell him it was one of these things where his campaign was over. And he just doubled down on it. He powered through it. And once again, 48 hours later, we were into a new news cycle.At the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, the candidates faced off in another marathon debate, during which Trump attacked Rand Paul's height and Carly Fiorina blasted Trump for mocking her appearance in an interview with Rolling Stone a few days before the debate. ("Look at that face! Would anyone vote for that? Can you imagine that, the face of our next president?!") "I think women all over this country heard very clearly what Mr. Trump said," Fiorina would say that night to raucous applause.Sarah Isgur: We were landing — this was back when not every airplane had WiFi. And so I was landing and getting WiFi back, and that's when I saw it. And, I mean, she knew immediately that was the best opportunity we'd ever had. Like the thing sucking up all the oxygen just gave us an oxygen mask.Tim Miller: Carly did a good job.Sarah Isgur: Trump realized the mistake he had made. That's why he never touched her again.Chapter 4: Republicans cannibalize themselvesIn the months-long lead-up to February's Iowa caucuses, the massive Republican field continued to jockey for position, and Trump continued to suck most of the oxygen out of the room and vacuum up earned media. By the end of 2015, the oxygen deprivation had winnowed the field by five candidates. The candidates who remained were trapped in something like a prisoner's dilemma in which they turned fire on everyone else but Trump. Meanwhile, the former celebrated neurosurgeon Ben Carson began to gain traction among social conservatives nationwide, particularly in Iowa. During a rally in Fort Dodge, Trump went after his future Cabinet appointee, reenacting Carson's teenage tribulations — ridiculous mock knife fight, anyone? — purely for laughs. Trump's team planned it on the plane, and it led to an awkward exchange in the motorcade afterward.—Vaughn Hillyard (@VaughnHillyard) November 13, 2015Corey Lewandowski: Mr. Trump says to Mark, the head of the Secret Service detail: "Hey, Mark. How did we do?" And Mark says, "Very good, sir!" And Mr. Trump says, "Do you have any advice?" And Mark says, "Just one, sir."I'm like, "You gotta be shitting me. This guy has been on the job a hot second and he's already giving the candidate advice? He's the fucking Secret Service guy!" And Mark, who's a great guy and I have enormous respect for, says: "Sir, please don't have anybody come up on the stage and stab you. We have to shoot them!"Then Trump goes, "Oh, Mark — the guy was 80."And Mark goes: "No, don't. Please. Here is my only advice. Please don't ask anyone to come up on the stage." And I said: "OK, like, I agree with you, head of Secret Service detail protection, let's not have anyone come up on the stage."February 2016 opened with Ted Cruz mounting a surprise win in Iowa and Trump complaining that the election was rigged.Newt Gingrich, former House speaker and 2012 GOP presidential candidate: Trump could never perform a classic Iowa campaign. First of all, it's not who he is. It's inconceivable he was going to go to small towns three times. But how could you create a replacement campaign? I called him one afternoon and said: "What you have to do is get on Facebook every day. People have to feel that you're in their living room or their kitchen every day. Then the familiarity will lead them to decide." I must have said that to him in October. And at Christmas, we were at my wife's sister-in-law's. He calls and says: "This is Donald. We just finished taping 58 Facebook videos."Sean Spicer: I had breakfast one morning with Corey. He was very clear that the expectations were that Trump needed to win Iowa. He was going all in, doing anything he could.Corey Lewandowski: Cruz's campaign was so focused, they put all their eggs in the Iowa basket. Then at the very end of the night of the Iowa caucus, they sent out a mass distribution that said, "Ben Carson is getting out of the race — vote for Ted Cruz." We believe that those votes went from Dr. Carson to Ted Cruz, and that is ultimately what led Donald Trump to finish second in the Iowa caucus.Marco Rubio: It was obvious he was doing it differently than everybody else was.Corey Lewandowski: There was a brief period of time where Marco Rubio started to go after Donald Trump and attack him. And you actually saw a movement in the polls, but what did Marco's team do? They started hearing from their donors, and their donors said: "This is beneath you. You should not be talking about the size of Mr. Trump's hands. This is not becoming of a presidential candidate."Marco Rubio: He has a real understanding of the media ecosystem and what feeds it—what it is the media wants to report on and getting narratives across. And that was probably underappreciated when everybody was kind of running traditional political campaigns and he was running a 21st-century, modern version of what we have. And it worked.The ensuing four weeks — starting with the Iowa caucuses at the beginning of February 2016 — saw the remaining Republican challengers cannibalize each other instead of Trump. Taking out the top guy after the Iowa caucuses, Ted Cruz, was too lofty a goal for Chris Christie in early 2016. So the straggling two-term governor of New Jersey settled on taking out the first-term senator from Florida, portraying Rubio as too green to be president. Meanwhile, Trump aides worried their candidate's obsession over not coming in first in Iowa could spell the end of his campaign.Mike DuHaime, senior strategist to Chris Christie: So it was on the plane ride back from Iowa to New Hampshire, it was really the governor himself and basically said: "This is what we have to do. Now is the time to take on Marco."Corey Lewandowski: I called the grown children — Don, Eric, and Ivanka — told them what was happening, brought Mr. Trump in, and, over a meal of McDonald's in the back room of our Manchester office, told him that if he wants to continue to bitch about the results in Iowa and not lay out his vision for what he wanted to achieve for America to the people in New Hampshire, this race was over. It was a very candid conversation; it was just he and I in the room. He listened intently. You walked out of that room. He went to a town-hall meeting with CNN that afternoon and Manchester. He came and ran a positive message.Then he went to a shift change at the Manchester police department, where he talked about supporting the men and women in law enforcement. And we campaigned in New Hampshire on Thursday and Friday, on Saturday, on Sunday, and on Monday. And on Tuesday, Donald Trump won the state of New Hampshire by 17 points, with 35%, in the 17-way primary. It was a complete blowout, the biggest blowout in the primary's history.With the field on the verge of collapsing, the GOP establishment's favorite son, Jeb Bush, sensed opportunity — albeit briefly. They pinned their hopes on the candidate's mother, the former first lady.Tim Miller: There was a small window where we felt, like, "Mrs. Bush is coming up, somebody is going to take some momentum here out of New Hampshire." That's not Cruz or Trump. It'll either be us or a Kasich or Rubio. We thought maybe we can kind of channel this and have a McCain-like 2008 sort of bump.Our internal numbers were going up a little bit right around the time when Mrs. Bush came to visit us. And it was just lovely, and she's just so charming and wonderful and aligned and blunt. And I remember briefing her for — she was interviewing with Norah O'Donnell. I was pretty clear, and I asked her what she was going to say if she was asked about them. I asked her her thoughts about Cruz and Trump, and she gave her very candid negative assessments of both of them. After each sort of rant she went on, she then looked at me and said, "But I'm not going to say that."Former first lady Barbara Bush introduces her son Jeb Bush at a town-hall meeting in Derry, New Hampshire, in February 2016.Charles Ommanney/The Washington Post via Getty ImagesCorey Lewandowski: We could attack Jeb for being a fake rich guy. Because he wasn't as rich as Trump. And then we could attack him for being a career politician. And then we can attack him for being low energy. He became an easy target for us because he had never had a tough battle.Christie dropped out after Trump won New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Bush's campaign never got going. He suffered perhaps most from a viral video after he told a New Hampshire audience on February 4, 2016, to "please clap."Tim Miller: The "please clap" thing is Ashley Parker's fault. I never will forgive her for that. She was the one who tweeted it out first and made everybody go back and find it and make it seem cringe.It was like a totally normal human response to an awkward audience moment that he was trying to let it go ahead. And then it got turned around on the internet to seem like he's begging people to clap for him. Like: 'Please clap for me, please clap for me. I'm so sad. I'm in last place.' Such is life. Tim MillerAshley Parker, reporter at The New York Times: I made it the kicker of my story. Once I tweeted it out, it just took on a totally unexpected life of its own.Tim Miller: It was like a totally normal human response to an awkward audience moment that he was trying to let it go ahead. And then it got turned around on the internet to seem like he's begging people to clap for him. Like: "Please clap for me, please clap for me. I'm so sad. I'm in last place." Such is life.Ashley Parker: It was sort of a poignant moment and a telling moment, in certain ways, but I think some of this got lost in the meme. It was also a lighthearted moment.All told, 12 Republican candidates started out in February. By the time Super Tuesday rolled around, on March 1, 2016, the field stood at five. Amid the South Carolina primary, holed up at a Hilton Garden Inn, the Bush campaign compiled speeches for dropping out and forging deeper into other states' nominating contests. Surrounded by the Bush family, the New York Jets owner Woody Johnson, and staffers, the son and brother of two former presidents dropped out of the race. He was the 2016 campaign's original front-runner with a nearly $100 million war chest.Rob Portman, GOP senator from Ohio: The Republican primary was a surprise for people because most of us thought Jeb Bush came into it with the most mainstream Republican support.Tim Miller: There were a couple of folks around Jeb who wanted him to keep going, and he called us back in and said: "You know, this is, I can't, can't do it. I can't move forward. So we have to, you know, we have to do this." He was all business. And he looked at me and says, "I've got it." And we went over the speech, you know, just like we would have with any other speech. He was wistful, obviously, and a little sad, but very businesslike. Like, this happened, he gave it his all, and he recognized staying in was only going to make things more likely at that point for Trump.Discarded lawn signs for Jeb Bush and Ben Carson lie on the ground outside a polling station in Columbia, South Carolina, on February 20, 2016.Joshua Roberts/ReutersMarco Rubio: Generally I was happy when people dropped out, because that meant, you know, one less candidate out there and a pool of voters that were now available to go after. Unfortunately for me, they didn't drop out soon enough.Chapter 5: Trump takes control: Super Tuesday, Indiana's decisive primaryIn March, as the contest narrowed, Trump went on a tear on Super Tuesday, winning Virginia, Vermont, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Massachusetts, and Alabama, setting up a battle royal between Trump, Cruz, and Kasich in Indiana's May primary.Rick Gates: By March, clearly he was the front-runner, and he was gaining delegates. But at the same time, you could see the party apparatus starting to work against him.Lindsey Graham: I endorsed Ted Cruz. I ran out of people to endorse. I was sort of the Dr. Kevorkian of endorsing. Everybody I endorsed politically died.Amanda Carpenter: It was essentially coming down to a Cruz-Trump race, and Kasich was refusing to get out. People like John Boehner and others were signaling that they weren't going to help Cruz and consolidate the field. They were just saying, "Well, we'll just nominate Trump and let him lose."Tim Miller: Jeb endorsed Cruz pretty quickly after he dropped out. Gave Marco Florida all to himself. I went to work for a super PAC that spent millions of dollars attacking Trump in Florida. Like, what more did you want from us?Mike DuHaime: Mitt Romney was potentially the most influential endorsement during that cycle. He was the previous nominee, and he had this massive fundraising network. So the thought was that if Mitt endorsed somebody, that person could become the one who could coalesce people. He never did.Mitt Romney, 2012 Republican presidential nominee: There's really no reason for me to add to that story.Tim Miller: There's an alternate history where Trump gets treated like a joke from the start. There's another alternate history where all of the campaigns attack him and treat him seriously from the start and he never really takes off. We'll never know. I do think that in both of those alternative histories, he could've gotten killed in the crib.A London pub set up cardboard cutouts of the faces of Ted Cruz, Trump, and Marco Rubio in March 2016 as part of an informal survey for customers to log which they disliked the most.Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty ImagesIn the early spring of 2016, the Trump campaign began to make some changes atop its organizational chart, hiring Paul Manafort, the veteran delegate wrangler of RNC conventions who'd turned into a jet-setting shadowy political operative for foreign autocrats.Rick Gates: Paul Manafort was brought in at the end of March. Trump had been advised to meet with Paul because Paul knew how to deal with conventions. The media had been reporting that the Republican convention was going to be contested. So you needed somebody to understand the nuances of how a contested convention works.The first call he made was to Jim Baker, the broker of the last contested convention. We had a secret meeting with Baker at the Jones Day law firm, our lawyer at the time. He and Trump had a fantastic meeting. Baker was as smooth as he typically is, and Trump was very interested in Baker's experience.The second call, which I thought was interesting, was to Dick Cheney. Cheney had agreed to support Trump, but he wanted to do it from behind the scenes. He wanted to be helpful for the party and support the nominee, but clearly he was not comfortable yet to move all into Trump's camp, given his relationship with the Bush family.Another interesting call was to Marco Rubio. Paul got Marco on the phone, and Rubio said he would look at how Trump was going to run his campaign, and, at the appropriate time, he might be willing to support him. Paul hung up and started smirking. I said, "What's going on?" He goes, "Marco used to be my driver at the 1996 Republican convention."At a hastily arranged event in Indianapolis, in a last-stand effort ahead of Indiana's decisive primary and following Trump's big wins in five East Coast states, Ted Cruz announced that Carly Fiorina would be his running mate if he emerged from the GOP primary with his party's nomination. It was an odd, awkward event that featured a botched handshake between the two.Sarah Isgur: The most important thought was, who can actually beat Trump at this point? He was underperforming with women. Cruz wasn't women's favorite candidate either. So if women in the middle of the Republican Party were up for grabs, maybe Carly could help with that.Jeff Roe, campaign manager for Ted Cruz: They had a really good rapport, and it was a man-bites-dog publicity event. So we thought it would be newsworthy, and that's how it came together.Adrienne Elrod: By that point, we realized it was over, and we started planning for the general election.Amanda Carpenter: I like Carly and respect her a lot, but it was just a play. You just tried to signal that we would be serious about things: "Look, we would bring a woman onto the ticket." I mean, it was kind of a last-ditch attempt.Nothing fancy to explain there: We fumbled for a moment, and it makes for an amusing video after the fact. Ted CruzJeff Roe: What's funny is we practiced the handshake.Sarah Isgur: Oh, my God. My memory is that not only did they practice the handshake, we made them practice the handshake. They balked at us and said that we were idiots for making them practice. They did it in a way teenagers will do something, like rolling their eyes. And then to have them do the most awkward, whatever that was, in the world.Jeff Roe: It's always awkward when candidates do the victory wave. We freaking practiced it, and they still screwed it up.Ted Cruz: Nothing fancy to explain there: We fumbled for a moment, and it makes for an amusing video after the fact.Jeff Roe: They really liked each other, legitimately liked each other. So it was what it was, a guy running for president who announced his VP before he got the nomination. It's going to be a little funky. If we could get conservatives to unite against Trump, then this could be a thing. It wasn't, "Oh, isn't this kind of funny?" We did not treat it as being funny.Lindsey Graham: I think it had slipped away by then.Days later, during an event on May 2, Fiorina fell through the stage while campaigning with Cruz.Sarah Isgur: I was doing something on my phone. They were, like, "Carly just fell!"Jeff Roe: I think she stepped off the thing. It's better from the camera angle than it was in real life. But the camera angle looks bad.Sarah Isgur: I was, like, "Oh, my God."One of the most pivotal endorsements during the final days of the GOP nominating contest was still up for grabs. On April 29, 2016, in a radio interview in Indianapolis, Gov. Mike Pence, himself running for reelection, endorsed Cruz to appease his socially conservative base. But Pence also threaded the needle with kind words about Trump. "I'm not against anybody, but I will be voting for Ted Cruz in the Republican primary," Pence said in an interview with WIBC's Greg Garrison. Trump won despite Pence's endorsement.Rick Gates: That night we set up a rally inside Trump Tower for Trump to kind of do his victory party. But we didn't say anything about being the presumptive nominee. We didn't take any liberties. We just stayed in our lane, and we knew at some point Cruz is going to have to drop out. We didn't know he was going to drop out that night.Jeff Roe: We stayed in a hotel. I cannot remember the name of the hotel, and, unbelievably, there was a dog show there. So we stayed up there the whole weekend, and we made our decision with these dogs barking next to us the whole damn time.Ted Cruz: When I was giving my speech and I said the words "We're suspending the campaign," a woman in the crowd let out a wail. It was piercing. I almost broke down. I finished the speech, and one of the things I'm still frustrated to this day is that I wanted to stay out there and thank the hundreds of volunteers who were there that night who were grieving. And I couldn't. I couldn't hold back the tears. There was an army of TV cameras there, and I'll be damned if I was going to let the media turn Lyin' Ted into Cryin' Ted. I had to leave the room because I simply couldn't hold back. I'm grateful that Heidi spent probably an hour just hugging everyone and saying thank you. I wish I had the strength to do that. I didn't. But Heidi did it for us. That piercing cry from the woman in the crowd. I'll never forget.Rick Gates: We found out that Cruz had dropped out after Trump had gone through the hallway to the elevator. It was Melania and Trump and myself and Paul in the elevator. And it was just utter silence. Paul turned to Trump and said, "Do you now know that you're one of two people who is going to be the next president of the United States?"Sarah Isgur: I was listening to the "Hamilton" soundtrack just over and over and over on the bus with my headphones on with the senior Cruz team and Cruz and Heidi and Carly. I wish I had had a better mood, attitude, whatever you want to call it. But you just worked your heart out and lost, and now you don't have time off. You're just back doing it for someone else. I say all that because when he lost, I was in sort of a historical, pensive mood. I remember wondering who had run against Hitler in Germany and thinking those people deserve more credit in history. Because you can know what the threat is and you can give everything you've got and still lose.Mike DuHaime: There were too many people who wanted to beat Trump but didn't have the courage to get behind any one person, because they didn't want to offend either us or Jeb or Marco or Cruz. So it was just too little too late.Ultimately, Pence, despite not endorsing Trump, became Trump's pick for the vice-presidential nomination — because of "divine intervention."Trump walks with Mike Pence on stage during a July 2016 campaign event in New York to announce Pence as Trump's running mate.Evan Vucci/AP photoRick Gates: Unbeknownst to Trump, we polled Ivanka to understand where she was. We didn't think that he was necessarily seriously going to move forward with it. But Paul thought we got to at least test it, because you never know, everything else about this race has been different. So why not? Let's look at this, you know, in totality. She had pretty good name recognition for that part. But at the end of the day, even she knew that she was not wanting to be the candidate. And so we moved on very quickly.Trump wanted to bring on somebody that was his friend, that he could work with as vice president, that he was able to communicate with very easily. And so this idea of Chris Christie and Newt Gingrich kind of being among the front-runners was absolutely accurate. But in the background we were looking at people like Mike Pence, Joni Ernst, and Bob Corker who might bring some significant role or resource to the campaign in order to help Trump win.So they came up with a short list very early on, and we reached out to the candidates individually. One of the first candidates was Mike Pence. He was the first VP candidate we met with at Bedminster. I was put in charge of vetting for Pence along with the lawyer A.B. Culvahouse. I staffed that meeting. This is the first time that Trump was physically meeting Mike Pence. And I think it's humorous in the sense that up to this point, Trump thought that Pence was not doing well in his governor's race. Trump felt like if he wasn't winning the governorship of Indiana, how in the world would he be able to help Trump as a vice-presidential candidate?And I say to this day, it was just divine intervention on how everything worked out for the first time they had met. Pence was ultimately selected. And we had a scenario where we met at Bedminster for the first time, Pence and his wife, Karen, and daughter Charlotte were there. And it was Trump and myself in the room. And Trump immediately started the meeting looking at Pence's daughter, Charlotte, and saying, "Charlotte, you know, your dad supported Ted Cruz in Indiana, not me." And it broke the ice and it was great. And to Mike's credit, he said, "Yes, Mr. Trump — uh — that was my fault." And it immediately just kind of got them into a position of really getting to know each other. And the visit was not without its challenges, because they are two very different people.Chapter 6: The RNC, July 2016Their presidential dreams crushed, a handful of Trump's 2016 rivals had by this point quit fighting and pledged allegiance to the seemingly inevitable nominee. But there were holdouts, like Rubio, Cruz, and Graham, who were still refusing to bend the knee. The climax came in Cleveland.Marco Rubio: I didn't go to the convention because I was running for reelection. I had announced late, so I needed every day I could spare in Florida.Tim Miller: I ended up not going to Cleveland. I drove to Richmond and got blackout drunk with my friend.Melania Trump at the end of her speech on the opening day of the Republican National Convention on July 18, 2016.Toni L. Sandys/The Washington Post via Getty ImagesRick Gates: On the first night of the convention, Melania did a fantastic job in the speech. And then about an hour and a half later, we start getting calls about the speech and about how it may have had information in it from a speech that Michelle Obama gave. And then, obviously, people started digging into the two speeches, and then they started comparing it.My wife calls me about an hour later, I think just a little after midnight, and says, "You're being blamed for it." And I was in a complete state of shock, because none of us had seen the speech until just before she gave the speech. And the way that the process worked, it was fed into a system run by the RNC where they would typically check for grammatical mistakes, but they never checked for content — obviously a correction that was made after that night. But at that point, nobody had thought to check Melania's speech because she had taken the team of speechwriters and done it. And what we found out after the fact was that there was an individual who had been guided by the speech firm that had given ideas and previous examples of speeches, and the speechwriter that helped him a lot, he was not political in nature and so, from what we now know, taken some of those aspects of the speech and included it, unbeknownst to Melania. And I don't think it was a deliberate intent, but obviously it created such a stir.Entering the convention, candidates who vociferously opposed Trump during the primary had to decide how to handle the convention optics. Former candidates such as Fiorina took a different tack than former candidates such as Cruz.Sarah Isgur: Carly couldn't endorse Trump and she couldn't not endorse him. I think that the phrase that was used was "You don't show up to someone's birthday party and talk about what a son of a bitch they are."Amanda Carpenter: I was working for CNN, and I had an inkling that Cruz was going to do something. I thought, another good, last-ditch attempt to try to at least signal opposition to what was going to happen.Rick Gates: We had negotiated with Cruz that he would be able to speak but that he would need to come out and say he was endorsing Donald Trump, which up until that moment he hadn't committed to. We asked for a copy of the speech in advance, but he didn't give it to us. We felt Cruz was going to renege on his commitment, which you naturally would assume.There was a lot of jockeying at the last minute. Jared and I were at the hotel with Trump in his suite. We're on the phone with Paul, who was over at the convention center. Nobody wanted Cruz to speak except for Paul, who thought it would be a disaster if he didn't, since we had committed to it. But Trump refused to allow him to speak, and so we were working out how we were going to tell Cruz this.Ted Cruz: The purpose of the speech was to lay out a path that I hoped then-candidate Trump would follow. A path to unifying conservatives. A path to honoring the promises that we had been making to the American people. What I said in the speech is vote for candidates who you trust to defend freedom and to defend the Constitution. And that is very much what I hoped Donald Trump would do. At the time I didn't know if he would or not. There were reasons to have concerns. I did have concerns.Amanda Carpenter: It was all pretty high-level, high-stakes theatrics going on — on everyone's part.Rick Gates: So we go over to the convention center in the motorcade. We have Trump in a holding room, and he's watching the proceedings on TV. He asked me where the rest of the family is. We had a family box, which we called the VIP box, in the corner of the convention center, looking directly onto the stage. Trump said: "'We'll check it out. Let's go."So we walk through the halls, and everybody's shouting "Trump! Trump! Trump!" He's building momentum. I'm thinking, this is way early for him to come down into this area, before Pence comes out to speak. And then he just kind of moseys out of the room right around the corner, because the stairs lead down into the box. He gets into the stairwell, and he turns to me and says, "Watch this."Ted Cruz: I didn't know it was coming. I had no idea. It didn't occur to me that that would be the campaign's reaction. Given that, for any nominee, the objective typically is to unify the party and win in November.Amanda Carpenter: I just remember how loud the boos were. And how I was worried for Heidi, watching her just kind of whisked out.Ted Cruz: If you look at what I said in the speech, the words were virtually identical to what Ted Kennedy said about Jimmy Carter and to what Ronald Reagan said about Gerald Ford. Neither one of them, at their respective conventions, endorsed the nominee. And the reason I know it was identical is I had both of those speeches in front of me when I was writing it and very deliberately used the same language.Amanda Carpenter: I didn't think anybody was in real danger, but just watching everything that happened at Trump rallies and the violence outside the convention, it was uncomfortable.Sean Spicer: Trump owned the moment. He gets stuff in a way that I don't think people appreciate in terms of — what's the right word? — pageantry. It's like showbiz, in the sense that he knows how to make a presentation.Trump's takeover of the GOP would culminate in a dark, authoritarian speech that would presage much of his reign over the country and, years later still, his party. "I alone can fix it," he infamously claimed.Rick Gates: Trump was very involved in writing the speech. We had created a framework for it. But as with every speech, he put his words to it, he put his rhythm, his content, to a large extent. It was a speech that I think resonated with a lot of people at that time. It was one that showed the issues with America, the problems that we were having, based on, in his view, failed leadership, across not just Democratic administrations but Republicans too. He felt very particular about immigration, about China, about making sure that America could be the best country it could be. And he had a different idea of how to do that. And so in laying that out in the speech — and it was a long speech, longer than we had anticipated, but it needed to show Americans — not just Republicans, but all Americans — what was wrong and how we could potentially fix it. And so it kind of codified both those dark moments of where you feel like there's no hope or optimism to feeling very optimistic by the end. And you could sense that he poured everything he had into that speech.The balloon drop after Trump formally accepted the GOP's 2016 presidential nomination in Cleveland. He'd go on to defeat the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, that November and serve a single term as president of the United States.Jeff J Mitchell/Getty ImagesLindsey Graham: I thought it was a pretty good speech. But I never thought he could win. I really didn't. I thought we would lose big. So what the hell do I know?Rick Gates: I'll never forget it, because he was also involved in the actual walk out and how he was going to do it. And just the way that the optics were very important for him. And it was going to either create a momentum booster, which is exactly what you want out of a convention, because at the end of the day, a convention is an event where you get to control the entire script, you don't have a bunch of people criticizing you or weighing down on it, you can certainly try, but at the end of the day, the majority of Americans are seeing exactly what you put on prime time. That 7-to-10-p.m. slot is the most important time of any convention, Republican or Democrat. And so with Trump that night, giving that speech, if he did it, it ultimately gave us a 10-point boost.Donald McGahn: The thing I remember the most are the number of people who still opposed Trump at that point and who were not at all enthusiastic about him. But then after he won, they were the first people in line saying, "I was with you the whole time, and I should get a job." That's the biggest thing I remember about the convention: the lack of honest support Trump was getting, even then.Rick Gates: When we first started planning the convention, it turns out that the RNC had hired a production team, that part of their team had been involved in "The Apprentice." So Trump, he has a style of getting to know everybody who works under him. At the convention, during the walk-through, Trump saw a director he knew, and they connected right away. This individual had a sense of what Trump would like, and he presented an overall plan. Trump loved it. We had to change a few things along the way at Trump's request, but this idea that you create the optic of somebody coming out in this kind of silhouette way through the middle doors — it was almost like a rock concert more than a convention, and people reacted that way. I'll never forget people texting me and emailing me, like, "I've never seen a walk out like that, not ever."Sarah Isgur: By that point, not only has Trump taken over the Republican Party, but the Democratic Party has responded to him as well. So he has had a huge effect on the Democratic Party. Think of it like evolution. There's this thing called Red Queen theory, where parasites actually affect the evolution of their hosts. The two will keep evolving to get advantage over one another. So it really matters what advantage the parasite gets next time, because that's how the host is going to evolve next time.John Cornyn, GOP senator from Texas: Every day was a surprise. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Top 10 House Races To Watch On Election Night Authored by Dan Berger via The Epoch Times, The House of Representatives hangs in the balance on Election Day. The Democrats currently have a 221-212 lead in Congress, with two vacancies, but Republicans appeared poised to take the chamber this year. RealClearPolitics gauges 228 seats leaning, likely, or solidly Republican, 174 similarly poised to go Democratic, and 33 as toss-ups. Most of the toss-up seats currently belong to Democrats. If Republicans win the night, as generally predicted, the big question will be how big the “red wave” will be and the size of the GOP’s majority. Analysts differ on the key races. This list includes some seen as bellwethers, or areas where outcomes tend to mirror broader trends. The list also includes some races where veteran lawmakers are in a tight race to defend their seats. Here’s a list of 10 House races to watch on Election Night on Nov. 8. North Carolina State Sen. Wiley Nickel (D) speaks to a crowd after winning the Democratic primary for the 13th congressional district of North Carolina at an election night event May 17, 2022 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images) North Carolina District 13 Because it’s in the East and the polls close at 7:30 p.m., this race between Democratic State Sen. Wiley Nickel and young Trump-backed Republican newcomer Bo Hines will yield results early. And its demographics, split between North Carolina’s rural counties and Raleigh’s suburbs, make it useful in analyzing other races in similar districts. With rural areas across the country colored red and big cities colored blue, the battle nowadays is in the purple suburbs. During the Trump presidency, suburban voters drifted away from the Republicans. A question to be answered on Tuesday is whether Democrats, helped by issues like abortion, can keep suburbanites in their column or whether Republicans, aided by a bad economy they’ve tied to Biden administration policies, can draw them back. Nickel, a veteran Democratic Party politico, served as an advance man for Al Gore in the 1990s and for the White House during Barack Obama’s presidency. He ran for office unsuccessfully in his native California before moving to North Carolina and going to work as a criminal defense attorney. Hines, who at 25 would, if elected, become one of the youngest members of Congress, grew up in the Charlotte area. He played football for a year at North Carolina State before transferring to Yale and playing there too. Each candidate epitomizes what his party’s voters in North Carolina seek right now, Nickel as relatively moderate and Hines as a Trump-backed conservative. “It’s like two districts rolled into one,” Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson of Raleigh said of CD 13 to The Epoch Times. “It’s the closest, most swing race in North Carolina. It’s truly a jump ball.” Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Iowa) speaks during news conference discussing the “Shutdown to End All Shutdowns (SEAS) Act” in Washington on Jan. 29, 2019. (Zach Gibson/Getty Images) Iowa’s District 3 This district stretches from Des Moines south and southwest toward Omaha, including Des Moines suburbs, fast-growing exurbs, and rural areas. Democratic incumbent Cindy Axne has won the seat twice without yet reaching 50 percent of the vote. Following redistricting, the area voted narrowly for Donald Trump over Joe Biden in 2020. It’s the second most likely tipping point after North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District, analyst Nathaniel Rakich said in a FiveThirtyEight podcast. Rakich said it’s a good seat to watch because it has two reasonably strong candidates, the incumbent Axne and Republican state Senator Zach Nunn. Campaign ads mostly feature national issues, like abortion and crime, rather than local ones. “It’s the epitome of an everyday-American, average-Joe Congressional district,” Rakich said on a podcast at his website. “Republicans will have to beat some tough Democratic incumbents to have a majority or at least a sizeable majority.” With the addition of Republican-trending rural counties, the district became easier for Republicans than in two previous races against Axne. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) speaks at a press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, on May 2, 2017. (Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images) New York’s 17th Congressional District This race features the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Sean Patrick Maloney, one of the most influential members of his party and not someone who would be expected to be in a close race in this Hudson Valley district. But the GOP is making a late surge in the blue state, led by gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin. His anti-crime message has resonated as New York City residents deal with a wave of sensational crimes in the streets and subways. Maloney is a ten-year incumbent in the neighboring 18th District but chose to run in the 17th after redistricting. He has seen his lead against Republican Michael Lawler shrink. The Cook Political Report and Real Clear Politics reclassified the race as a toss-up. The Democrats have had to spend more and campaign harder for what was supposed to have been a safe seat. The DCCC spent $605,000 on an ad for Maloney last month, and former President Bill Clinton came to campaign for him. Political science professor Shawn Donahue of the University at Buffalo told The Epoch Times this was the race he watched most closely in the state. “Maloney looks particularly vulnerable. The Republicans are throwing money” at a race in a district Joe Biden won by 10 points over Donald Trump in 2020. “If Maloney were to lose, he would be the biggest person to lose since Cantor.” Eric Cantor of Virginia’s 7th District, the House Majority Leader from 2011 to 2014, lost a primary to economics professor Dave Brat in 2014 and resigned first his leadership position and then his seat. “As head of the party’s campaign committee, you’d think you’d have your own race in the bag so you could concentrate on other cases around the country,” Donahue said of Maloney. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) speaks at a press conference on July 20, 2021, in Washington, DC.(Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images) Ohio’s 9th Congressional District Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) is the longest-serving woman in House history. If she wins this election over Republican J.R. Majewski, she’ll pass the late Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) as the longest-serving woman in Congress. But this district in northwest Ohio, centered on Democratic stronghold Toledo, has, with redistricting, become more challenging for the party. It once stretched along the Lake Erie shoreline to include Democratic parts of the Cleveland area but has lost them while adding Republican-leaning rural areas west of Toledo. The DCCC has identified Kaptur’s seat as vulnerable. The Cook Political Report has it leaning Democratic. But Real Clear Politics, which calls it a toss-up, notes that in the 2020 presidential race, voters here favored Donald Trump by almost 3 points over Joe Biden. FiveThirtyEight gives Kaptur a 76 percent chance of winning. Kaptur, 76 and a close Biden ally, was first elected in 1982. Majewski, 42, is an Air Force veteran and nuclear power plant manager. John Gibbs a candidate for congress in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional district speaks at a rally hosted by former President Donald Trump near Washington, Mich., on April 2, 2022. (Scott Olson/Getty Images) Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District Republican Rep. Peter Meijer lost his seat in a primary upset to John Gibbs. Gibbs had been a Trump appointee to the Department of Housing and Urban Development, although not confirmed, while Meijer, whose family owns a Michigan-based supercenter chain, was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in the final days of his administration. The upset raised the chances this seat might flip to the Democrats, represented by Grand Rapids attorney Hillary Scholten. Real Clear Politics rates this race, in a district Biden carried by 11 points, as a toss-up. Cook’s has it leaning Democratic, and FiveThirtyEight gives Scholten a 57 percent chance of victory. Gibbs was one of the Republican candidates supported in the primaries by Democrats who pegged them as extremists and thus easier to beat in November. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $435,000 promoting Gibbs over Meijer. “We thought (Gibbs) was an easier candidate, and he has proven to be because he’s a nut and he’s too conservative for Western Michigan,” DCCC Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney told CNN’s Jake Tapper, defending the party’s tactics. Monica De La Cruz, (R-Texas) believes her progressive opponent’s radical views will not sit well with traditional Hispanic voters. (Photo courtesy of Monica De La Cruz) Texas’ 15th Congressional District This race in a South Texas district traditionally voting blue is seen as a stark clash of ideology between two Hispanic women, Democrat Michelle Vallejo and Republican Monica De La Cruz. The district has been represented by Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, a Democrat. But after redistricting, he left it open to run in the neighboring 34th district against Republican Rep. Mayra Flores. She made history in June by winning a special election to become the first Republican to represent the area in more than a hundred years. Vallejo, a Columbia grad supported by progressives like Elizabeth Warren, wants to make the district more “equitable,” supports abortion, “Medicare for all,” “green energy,” and wants to offer “rights and opportunities” to illegal immigrants. De La Cruz, raised by a single mother, put herself through the University of Texas. She is pro-life, favors faith and family, ties Democratic policies to soaring inflation, and supports resuming President Donald Trump’s tough border policies. She’s endorsed by Trump and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. De La Cruz ran well against Gonzalez in 2020, losing by 6,588 votes. Hispanics have begun moving toward Republicans recently, upsetting Democratic dependence upon them as part of their base. FiveThirtyEight analyst Galen Druke said in a podcast he’d be watching this race in an 80 percent Hispanic district to see how this trend, with national implications, is evolving. A file image of House Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration and Related Agencies Subcommittee ranking member Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.) (C) and Rep. Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.) on Capitol Hill in Washington, May 25, 2017. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) Georgia’s 2nd Congressional District Sanford Bishop has held this seat in southwest Georgia for 30 years since it was drawn as a black majority district. He’s stood out as a moderate who can cross the party aisle and a Democrat who can appeal to white farmers and other rural voters. But redistricting has helped the Republicans here, and newcomer Chris West is still in the race. Republicans hope a red wave on Election Night will help the young lawyer and real estate developer upset the Congressional veteran Bishop, the longest-serving member of the Georgia delegation. Bishop’s long record and deep roots in the district could help him hang on to win. Real Clear Politics rates the district a toss-up. Two most recent polls of likely voters, one by Insider Advantage and the other by Trafalgar Group, show Bishop up by 3 and 4 points, respectively, both within the margin of error. West’s campaign website says it’s the only competitive race in the Deep South. The district includes Columbus and Macon, small towns, farmland, and military bases like Fort Benning. Bishop’s House committee positions in agriculture, military, and veteran affairs have positioned him to serve constituents in those areas. Charles Bullock, a University of Georgia political science professor, told The Epoch Times that Bishop had won reelection in the past when the district’s black population dropped as low as 39 percent. It stands after redistricting at 49 percent. Marci McCarthy, chairman of the DeKalb County Republican Party in the Atlanta metro area, said lst week that black voters in the state’s rural areas had not had a strong turnout in early voting up to that point. Lori Chavez-Deremer, former mayor of Happy Valley, Oregon, is the Republican nominee to represent Oregon’s 5th Congressional District. (Photo courtesy of Lori Chavez-Deremer) Oregon’s 5th Congressional District For a redrawn district stretching from Portland’s southern suburbs further south and inland, this race might serve as a referendum on the Portland metro area’s progressive politics. It’s now an open seat after a moderate Democrat incumbent, Kurt Schrader, lost the primary to progressive candidate Jamie McLeod-Skinner. While Schrader was endorsed by Joe Biden, the very progressive Elizabeth Warren endorsed McLeod-Skinner. The civil servant faces Lori Chavez-Deremer, a Republican and former mayor of the Portland suburb Happy Valley. RealClearPolitics rates the race a toss-up. The Cook Political Report classifies it as leaning Republican. Joe Biden won the district by 9 points in 2020. Redistricting eliminated coastal areas that favored Schrader. It hasn’t necessarily made the district easier for a Republican, one of Chavez-Deremer’s campaign leaders, Ben Roche, told The Epoch Times. But the political climate on crime, energy, and education may favor Republicans. Chavez-Deremer has campaigned as a moderate, someone who, as mayor, worked with both parties to fix civic problems. Roche said that Portland’s suburbs like Happy Valley have seen growing crime attributed to homeless drug addicts from Portland, a trend fed by the city’s progressive policies on homelessness and criminal justice. Portland was a center of BLM disorders in 2020 and of calls to defund the police. This undated photo provided by the Christy Smith For Congress campaign shows candidate Christy Smith. (Christy Smith For Congress via AP) California’s 27th District This district in Los Angeles County has become more difficult for the GOP through redistricting, losing the conservative Simi Valley. The 25th District has covered the area, and Republican Mike Garcia holds that seat. But the new 27th trends Democratic by almost 13 points. Garcia will be in his third race against the same opponent, Christy Smith, whom he defeated in 2020’s general election by only 333 votes. “It would be a stretch seat for Republicans normally,” the only seat the party holds in Los Angeles County, said FiveThirtyEight editor Maya Sweedler in a podcast where she picked it as a seat of crucial interest. “But if Garcia is running hot on election night, it will be notable for Republicans. I’m curious if Garcia can hang to this.” FiveThirtyEight calls Garcia slightly favored, with a 65 percent chance to win. Real Clear Politics says the race leans GOP. The Cook Political Report labels it a toss-up. Garcia is a former Navy fighter pilot who then worked for Raytheon. Smith, a former California Assemblywoman, has worked for the U.S. Department of Education. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.), second from left, speaks during a press conference in Washington on Sept. 27, 2019. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, elected in 2018, faces Republican opponent Karoline Leavitt, who is just 25. She worked as an assistant press secretary in the Trump White House and later as director of communications for House Republican Conference Chair Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) Trump did not endorse a candidate in the crowded GOP primary but later supported Leavitt with an enthusiastic shout-out on Truth Social. FiveThirtyEight terms Pappas as slightly favored to win, with a 65 percent chance of victory. Real Clear Politics, though, says it leans Republican, with it having gone for Trump over Biden by 1 point in 2020. The Cook Political Report calls it a toss-up. Pappas, co-chairs the Congressional LGBT Equality Caucus. He has campaigned on health care and lowering the cost of prescription drugs and said in a debate that he wants to modernize trucking and shipping regulations to “unkink supply chains.” Leavitt told Fox News that she wanted to “really reach out to my generation of voters. . . . I live among them, my friends, my former college roommates, my former colleagues who are really being indoctrinated by the left’s agenda and their messaging. We desperately need strong, conservative, youthful voices on our side of the aisle that are standing up for our country.” Like many Republican and Democratic opponents around the country, the two have clashed on abortion, Biden’s economic policies, and the outcome of the 2020 election. Tyler Durden Mon, 11/07/2022 - 19:20.....»»

Raising Rates Has Set A Debt "Avalanche" In Motion Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance This is the latest from Harris Kupperman, founder of Praetorian Capital, a hedge fund focused on using macro trends to guide stock selection. Mr. Kupperman is also the chief adventurer at Adventures in Capitalism, a website that details his investments and travels. Harris is one of my favorite Twitter follows and I find his opinions - especially on macro and commodities - to be extremely resourceful. I’m certain my readers will find the same. I was excited when he offered up his latest to Fringe Finance about, in his words, why “the Fed is fuct”. Harris On Why The Fed Is Screwed The Fed is trapped in a box of their own creation. As a result, they may want to talk tough, but their ability to maneuver is severely restricted. The Fed claims that they’re targeting a terminal rate of 4.6% for Fed Funds, but if they did that for any period of time, they’d only succeed in blowing up the Treasury. Our government has run obscene deficits over the past two decades. This was only made possible by the Fed suppressing interest rates. Despite a succession of Treasury Secretaries, the US debt was never termed out. The majority of the debt is actually quite short term. During 2021, the Federal government paid $392 billion in interest on $21.7 trillion of average debt outstanding—or an average interest rate of 1.8%. Now imagine if Fed Funds actually got to the terminal rate and stayed there for any period of time. What would paying an average rate of 4.6% on year-end 2021 debt do to the interest expense? Well, it rises by $636 billion to $1.028 trillion or the more than the cost of our entire military spending of $801 billion in 2021. Ignoring the budget pressure, the interest cost would then be 4.5% of total GDP, up from 1.7% in 2021. That’s like tying a lead weight around the neck of our economy. Both political parties have engaged in a drunken spending spree. There is zero political desire to reduce spending and it seems almost inevitable that deficits will continue and even expand into the future. The question is, “who then funds the increased cost of interest expense in addition to the already egregious annual deficits?” Over the past few years, our deficits have increasingly been funded by the Federal Reserve purchasing government bonds through their QE, which is quite inflationary as we’re now learning. Except, QE is now going in reverse as the Fed claims that they’ll be selling off bonds as they conduct QT. If they’re selling bonds while the Treasury needs to accelerate their own debt issuances to cover the increased cost of interest, then rates will be forced higher—potentially much higher. As rates go higher, government interest costs will increase, and the cycle will accelerate the cash drain from the Treasury. At some point, the Fed will be forced to step in and monetize this debt as the buyer of last resort—which is effectively what happens in most Emerging Market crises—often making the crisis much worse. This is a cycle that once started, gets ugly quite fast. Just look at how fiercely the Japanese are defending the interest rate on their own sovereign debt. The Japanese must know that once rates rise, the whole game is over. The Bank of England belatedly came to a similar conclusion after only testing QT. Over here in the states, I’m not sure if the Fed has actually done any math on the issue. Look, Powell may want to be Volcker. He may want to crush inflation. However, he’s trapped. The Fed simply cannot take rates up beyond a certain point without blowing up the Treasury and then being forced back into even more aggressive QE to absorb the bonds from the Treasury—which would only accelerate inflation. Besides, despite Powell desiring a recession to crimp inflation, he must realize that a recession will certainly crimp tax receipts—only making the deficits worse. It’s all quite reflexive and low rates are what’s stopping the snowball from rolling down the hill. Raising rates will set an avalanche in motion. When your debt to GDP exceeds 100%, your ability to maneuver is restricted. The US is on the precipice of an Emerging Markets debt crisis and Powell seems determined to be the one who sets it all in motion, but only after he first blows up every other global Central Bank. I am always reminded that the Fed is full of useless academics, but in the end, it’s a highly political institution and they’ll craft the white papers to justify whatever idiotic course they choose to take. As the above scenario begins to unfold, the political class will force Powell to back down. They will decide that increased inflation is preferable to detonating the treasury. The Pause is coming and it will send equities parabolic. There will be a few more nasty moments between then and today. The trick is to survive and then max it out when the Fed admits that they’re trapped. It’s going to be one of the great wealth transfers of all time. Who’s ready? Get 50% off: If you enjoy this article, would like to support my work and have the means, I would love to have you as a subscriber and can offer you 50% off for life: Get 50% off forever Harris On OPEC’s “Counterattack” The Federal Reserve has been attacking inflation. The problem is that after printing trillions of dollars, they’re ill-equipped to succeed at their task. Partly, this is because all that cash has to go somewhere and partly this is because their mandate does not extend into ensuring that global energy production expands. While Owners’ Equivalent Rent and wages have remained elevated, those are often seen as the “good” sort of inflation—or at least the benign sort. Meanwhile, all other forms of inflation tend to be characterized as “bad” and frequently the “bad” inflation is caused by elevated energy prices, which then increase the costs of producing and transporting everything else. Therefore, despite the Fed ignoring the inflation they caused for well over a year, when oil cleared $100 a barrel, the Fed finally felt that they had no choice but to do something. The problem is that the only ways to reduce the price of oil are to produce more of it or consume less of it. It’s hard to produce more when the President and many of his powerful oligarch buddies are aggressively intervening to ensure that it’s difficult to expand or finance production. Meanwhile, no one wants to invest when there are constant threats of excess profits taxes, carbon taxes, expropriation and price caps. Since the obvious solution has been made so impossible, the Fed has been forced to embark on a plan to reduce global energy consumption. How do you reduce oil consumption? Well, it seems that their plan is to create a global depression. So, after a decade of paying lip-service to “inclusive economics” and “closing the wealth gap,” the Fed has been forced to pivot and destroy the finances of the world’s poor, in the hopes that they’ll consume less oil. For the past half-year, this plan has unfolded with the usual crescendo of mini-temblors as global growth screeches to a halt and over-leveraged institutions find themselves on the wrong side of asset depreciation. The Fed is now well on its way towards creating an economic crisis that will reduce global energy consumption—consequences be damned. Naturally, most global citizens do not want a lower standard of living so that US consumers can continue their orgy of excess. In fact, many global citizens owe their current standard of living due to elevated energy prices. Hence, after watching Biden liquidate the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to improve his polling numbers, while watching the Fed directly target their standard of living and that of their customers, OPEC has had enough. They’re going to do something about the Fed and its war on oil. OPEC has finally launched a counterattack. Last month, they agreed to cut output by 100,000 bbl/d. It was meant as a warning that went unheeded. Tomorrow, they’re going to Blitzkrieg the Fed. No one knows how big the cuts will be and frankly, it doesn’t matter how large they are. Instead, the message is clear—the Fed can crash global GDP in their fight against oil, but OPEC wields a much larger stick and will cut production even faster. In fact, OPEC will DO WHATEVER IT TAKES if the Fed continues on this path. OPEC has drawn a line under the price of oil and told the Fed that it’s wasting its time. OPEC controls the price of oil and oil is the world’s Central Banker, not the Fed. [Last] Monday morning, the market heard that message loud and clear. The Fed is trapped, oil is going higher, and the Fed is powerless to contain it. Why would the Fed continue trying to blow up the world’s financial markets if oil will not bend to their will? Let’s look at a country like India that imports almost all of its energy. The Federal Reserve has effectively been saying, “they’re a poor country, we’ll break them and then global oil consumption will decline and US citizens will have cheaper oil.” Meanwhile, OPEC is saying, “India is a large and growing customer of ours. We’ll defend them against the Fed. Sure, they’ll pay more for their oil, but that’s much better than having the Fed detonate their currency, banking system and economy.” The battle lines are now drawn and OPEC is taking the mantle from the Fed. The market is loving it. The Fed tends to be the last ones to realize anything when it comes to economics and the markets, so they likely haven’t internalized what OPEC just told them. However, the stock market understood it instantly, having one of the largest 2-day rallies in years. We’re getting much closer to The Pause. The Fed still needs to break something before they can declare victory and reduce rates, but The Pause is near—maybe not near in terms of price, but certainly in terms of when they pause. OPEC’s counterattack has changed the calculus and the Fed is now on the backfoot. If you can’t win at something, why try? Especially if you’re going to leave casualties all over the financial markets. On the topic of OPEC, here’s some quick math. Global supply and demand are roughly in balance today. Add in 1.5 million bbl/d of global SPR releases that will end soon, add in 2 million bbl/d of reduced demand from Chinese covid lock-downs that appear to be ending, add in 1 million bbl/d that Russian oil will decline by in 2023 (at a minimum), add in the 1 million bbl/d that global demand seems to expand by each year and assume that global supply somehow grows by 1 million bbl/d (though it isn’t clear where that growth would be coming from) and you have a 4.5 million bbl/d swing in 2023. Now add in whatever OPEC chooses and you realize that there’s an imminent and exponential crisis for the consumers of oil. Of course, the Fed could destroy enough global GDP to erase 4.5 million bbl/d of global oil demand and stop the price from exploding, but OPEC just told them that they’ll DO WHATEVER IT TAKES. Do you think the Fed continues its war on GDP when they now know they’ll fail to contain the price of oil? In 2023, energy will be the only thing that matters to investors. Everything else, including the Fed will be a side-show. Who’s ready for the insanity wave? Ever since Monday, I’ve been maxing it all out in energy. I’ve been ripping right-tails all over the screen. Oil is going to wreck all the other CUSIPS. The S&P is partying this week because the Fed is cornered by OPEC, but that’s only because speculators don’t realize what this means for the price of oil. We just had a half-year pause in my oil thesis, now it’s about to resume with the sort of vigor that comes from a good long nap. Hope you’re ready… For more, of Fringe Finance, visit our Substack here.  DISCLAIMER: All content is Harris Kupperman’s opinion. Harris’ disclosure is “Funds that I control have an obscene amount of energy exposure. Equities, options, futures, futures options, ETFs, you name it, we probably have it…” Tyler Durden Wed, 10/19/2022 - 11:47.....»»

From essays in book form to novellas and YA novels, these quick reads are perfect for commutes, beach days, or just hitting your Goodreads goal. When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Amazon; Alyssa Powell/Insider Finishing a book in a day can be so satisfying. These recommendations are short books or fast-paced reads. They include self-help books, thrillers, and romances. Whether you're an avid reader or reserve reading for a cozy vacation chair, finishing a whole book in a day is so satisfying. It's exciting to get lost in the pages of a fascinating memoir, a heartfelt romance, or a gripping thriller that simply won't let our attention go until the true killer is revealed. These quick reads are either short books or fast-paced — usually read within a day or even a single sitting. We've also included the audiobooks for these titles because they're great for day-long road trip listening or a long hike. On most audiobook platforms, including Audible and Libro.fm, you can increase the listening speed to finish them even faster. From moving memoirs to heartbreaking romances, here are 32 quick reads you can finish in a day.32 books you can read in one day:NonfictionSuspenseYoung AdultRomanceFictionNonfictionAn essay that calls for actionAmazon"We Should All Be Feminists" by Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $9Adapted from Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie's TEDx Talk, this essay in novel form is a unique definition of feminism in the 21st century, calling for inclusion amongst women using personal experience to demonstrate why we should all be feminists. Adichie's writing is smart and rousing — a sharp look at the gender hierarchy we've created and a call to engage in necessary solutions. Length: 64 pages; 51-minute audiobookNote: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A must-read for every 20-somethingAmazon"The Defining Decade: Why Your Twenties Matter—And How to Make the Most of Them Now" by Dr. Meg Jay, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $12.19Dr. Meg Jay is a psychologist who drew from nearly 20 years of work to demonstrate that our 20s are not a second adolescence, but the most defining decade of adulthood. This book argues that our 20s are not to be trivialized, that we change and develop rapidly because of our jobs, relationships, social networks, and evolving identities. In her book, Dr. Jay takes many of the complaints about life in our 20s and offers practical guides to make the most of the 10 years that may define the rest of our lives.Length: 272 pages; 7-hour and 11-minute audiobook A short book for the personality quiz fanAmazon"Reading People: How Seeing the World through the Lens of Personality Changes Everything" by Anne Bogel, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $10.99Written by Anne Bogel, a popular blogger, "Reading People'' looks at a collection of popular personality frameworks (like Enneagrams or Myers-Briggs) and how each one contributes to the insights we gain about ourselves and the people around us. Bogel includes practical applications and personal stories that can help us understand the personalities of those closest to us and how they influence productivity, parenting, and work habits. I found a lot of truly useful takeaways from this book, which helped me learn about my own behaviors but also adjust how to support and communicate with my friends better.Length: 224 pages; 4-hour and 33-minute audiobookNote: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.An eye-opening look at modern feminismAmazon"Hood Feminism" by Mikki Kendall, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $10.71This book takes a close look at the imperfections of modern feminism — a movement that has been taken over by middle-class white women and often failed to meet the basic needs of people who need the most help. With powerful anecdotes and sharp statistics, Mikki Kendall, a prominent activist, examines how feminism, as we know it, has ignored basic problems of survival such as food insecurity, quality education, and medical care and instead focused on increasing privilege for a select few. It also demonstrates how the movement has largely left behind women of different races, classes, sexual orientations, and abilities — as well as provides steps on what we can do to make feminism work for all women.Length: 288 pages; 6-hour and 57-minute audiobook Note: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A brief memoir with an important messageAmazon"I'm Still Here: Black Dignity in a World Made For Whiteness" by Austin Channing Brown, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $11.53In America, white society has fallen in love with the idea of "diversity" but forgotten what it means to not only "allow" differences but celebrate what makes people diverse. Austin Channing Brown uses her own life — even her own name — to demonstrate that this world only permits diversity when it doesn't make white people uncomfortable. This is her journey to celebrating Blackness, but also a call to genuinely value Black people by addressing racial hostility in our schools, workplaces, and neighborhoods. Length: 192 pages; 3-hour and 54-minute audiobookNote: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A quick read that started a cleaning revolutionAmazon"The Life Changing Magic of Tidying Up" by Marie Kondo, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $8.32This is a perfect read to grab on the day you're procrastinating on your spring cleaning, one that will have you excited to get started on organization. Marie Kondo's writing style and effective decluttering techniques have sparked a revolution, calling us to create tidy homes by keeping only items that "spark joy." This book details the methods of decluttering and the psychology behind it all, demonstrating how a clear home leads to a clear mind.Length: 224 pages; 4-hour and 50-minute audiobookNote: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A story that began as a "Humans of New York" featureAmazon"Tanqueray" by Stephanie Johnson and Brandon Stanton, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $16.88In 2019, Tanqueray, one of the most well-known burlesque dancers in New York City, once again captured the attention of millions when she was featured on "Humans of New York." "Tanqueray" is the captivating story of Stephanie Johnson's experiences in 1970s New York City, including personal photos and stories that weren't included in her "Humans of New York" series. Length: 192 pages; 3-hour and 17-minute audiobookSuspenseA classic murder mysteryAmazon"And Then There Were None" by Agatha Christie, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $7.99In each room of the mansion where 10 strangers are gathered, there hangs a famous nursery rhyme, describing 10 people dwindinglng down to none. When the guests realize they're being murdered as described in the rhyme, they have to figure out who is orchestrating it all and why, before there are none of them left. Agatha Christie is an iconic murder mystery novelist and if you haven't read one of her books, this is the perfect place to start. It's an intense "whodunnit" that's fun to read as you gather clues to solve the puzzle before you reach the final page.Length: 300 pages; 6-hour audiobook Note: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A shocking summer thrillerAmazon"We Were Liars" by E. Lockhart, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $5.98"We Were Liars" is the type of fast-paced thriller where you have no idea what you're looking for until the twist smacks you in the face. It takes place amongst wealthy and seemingly perfect families on Martha's Vineyard. During the summer she turns 15, Cadence struggles with memory loss from a head injury. Her mother sends her on trip with her father around Europe, rather than with all her cousins on the island as they usually spend every summer. After two summers away from the island, Cadence returns to find so much has changed, and no one will answer all her questions. This story unravels quickly, with lies and secrets nearly pouring out of every page.Length: 320 pages; 6-hour and 27-minute audiobookNote: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A Stephen King horror novellaAmazon"Elevation" by Stephen King, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $8.99Known for his long and horrifying novels, Stephen King manages to pack his signature creepy storytelling into his second-shortest novel, "Elevation." In the town of Castle Rock, Scott Carey has been steadily losing weight (and experiencing a couple of other odd things) but doesn't want to be poked and prodded by doctors. He's also engaged in a mini-battle with his neighbors — a lesbian couple whose dog keeps pooping on his lawn. As Scott begins to understand the prejudice the women face, an alliance forms. This is a refreshing and reinvigorating novel, one that draws you in with Stephen King's style and keeps you hooked with his signature twists.Length: 160 pages; 3-hour and 46-minute audiobookNote: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A gripping, twisty thrillerAmazon"Layla" by Colleen Hoover, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $8.97When an unexpected attack lands Layla in the hospital, she's fortunately able to physically recover — but is left with emotional and mental trauma. Leeds, her partner, is struggling to reconnect with the woman he fell in love with, but has an idea to reignite their relationship with Layla by escaping to the bed-and-breakfast where they first met. Their trip takes an unexpected turn when Layla proves unpredictable and Leeds finds solace in another guest with a curious set of problems. Colleen Hoover novels are notorious single-sitting reads — the tension is so high that you can't possibly put it down until everything is resolved.Length: 303 pages; 8-hour and 10-minute audiobook Note: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A fast-paced BookTok favoriteAmazon"Verity" by Colleen Hoover, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $11.26Colleen Hoover is known for her suspenseful romances but this thriller takes "page-turner" to a whole new level. I finished this gripping story in an afternoon, completely engrossed in this story which follows Lowen, who is brought to Verity's home to finish her highly anticipated book series. While browsing notes in her office, Lowen finds a startling autobiographical manuscript that seems to be filled with horrifying confessions.  Length: 336 pages; 8-hour and 10-minute audiobookYoung AdultA slam-poetry novelAmazon"The Poet X" by Elizabeth Acevedo, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $7.85This quick read follows Xiomara, who feels unheard in her Harlem neighborhood and finds slam poetry as a way to understand her mother and her place in the world. While Xiomara is used to using her fists to communicate, she finds she has much more to say, and getting her words out proves powerful and therapeutic. I strongly recommend listening to this as an audiobook, as the cadence of the poetry read by the author is unparalleled in power and emotion.Length: 384 pages; 3-hour and 30-minute audiobook Note: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A beautiful book that will pull at your heart stringsAmazon"A Monster Calls" by Patrick Ness, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $8.49When Siobhan Dowd's passing from cancer prevented her from writing this idea, Patrick Ness was able to make it come to life. This short fantasy follows Conor, a 13-year-old boy who's had the same nightmare ever since his mom started treatment. One night, he wakes and finds a monster outside his bedroom window, albeit a different, wilder, and more dangerous creature than the one from his nightmares. This is an undeniable tear-jerker of a novel, one that demands to be read in one sitting as the magic stays with you long after you've closed the book.Length: 237 pages; 3-hour and 59-minute audiobook Note: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A powerful and relevant YA storyAmazon"Dear Martin" by Nic Stone, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $6.98This book and its sequel, "Dear Justyce," are both super short reads, so even if you have to take a few breaks, you can still read them in a day. The first installment is about Justyce McAllister, a future Ivy League student who was recently put in handcuffs and is now being treated differently by his classmates and teachers, all before a horrible incident changes his life. To deal with it all, he turns to the teachings of Martin Luther King, Jr. and starts writing letters to him. The book deals with police brutality and racism in a way that's deeply revealing about the disproportionate weight Black youth carry in America.Length: 240 pages; 4-hour and 32-minute audiobook Note: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A YA with complex charactersAmazon"What To Say Next" by Julie Buxbaum, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $6.98While this audiobook is a teeny bit longer than others on this list, I read the print version and absolutely flew through it. This story follows Kit and David, two teenagers who find connection with each other when they need it most. David is a teen with autism, feeling isolated in a school that has dubbed him "weird." Kit is relatively popular but struggling to move on from the car accident that killed her father. When Kit decides to sit with David at lunch one day, their quirky and loving friendship begins to bloom. I devoured this book so quickly, I was that invested in the perfectly flawed characters (and their happiness).Length: 320 pages; 9-hour and 4-minute audiobook Note: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A harrowing Holocaust-era readAmazon"The Boy In The Striped Pajamas" by John Boyne, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $8.64In 1942, Bruno returns home from school to find that his family is moving far away from all his friends. With nothing to do, Bruno decides to explore and finds a tall fence that stretches as far as he can see, with a boy his age on the other side. This harrowing Holocaust-era novel is middle grade, but the message -inside is one for everyone to hold close. It's a short but memorable story about the best and worst of humanity.Length: 215 pages; 4-hour and 57-minute audiobookNote: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A short novel that gets deepAmazon"Highly Illogical Behavior" by John Corey Whaley, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $10.22This is one of the best YA books I've read that gently yet accurately encapsulates mental health problems. Solomon is an agoraphobic teen who hasn't left his house in three years. Lisa, who is trying to get into a psychology program after high school, learns about Solomon and is determined to cure him so she can write about it for her college applications. When the experiment develops into a friendship, the truth behind their meeting still lingers and threatens to ruin the mutual trust they've built. On the psychological side, this book is deeply fascinating while humanizing the often off-putting stigma around mental illness.Length: 256 pages; 6-hour and 17-minute audiobook Note: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A devastating and quick readAmazon"They Both Die at the End" by Adam Silvera, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $8.37This young adult book may seem long but the pages practically turn themselves — there's even a BookTok challenge where readers encourage each other to read it in one sitting. The story follows two boys, Mateo and Rufus, who each get a call from Death-Cast, letting them know they will die today. Through an app called Last Friend, Mateo and Rufus find each other and set out to live a lifetime in a single day.Length: 416 pages; 8-hour and 29-minute audiobookRomanceA moving and clever love storyAmazon"In Five Years" by Rebecca Serle, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $10.03When asked where she sees herself in five years, Dannie Kohan is sure of her answer — until she mysteriously wakes up for just a few hours, five years into the future, with a completely different life than she imagined. When she returns to her current life, freshly engaged with a brand-new job offer, the hours feel like a strange dream that she's determined to shake. I spent a summer afternoon listening to this book, so drawn to how the story unraveled.Length: 288 pages; 6-hour and 44-minute audiobookNote: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A page-turning, dramatic novelAmazon"The Seven Husbands of Evelyn Hugo" by Taylor Jenkins Reid, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $9.42This is the longest book on the list because, despite its page count, this book truly demands to be read in one day. I didn't want to do anything besides learn Evelyn Hugo's entire life story — it was like binging a great TV series in one sitting. Evelyn Hugo, a reclusive former Hollywood movie star, is finally ready to tell her life story — but only to one little-known journalist. After making her way to LA in the 1950s, Evelyn led a glamorous and headlining life, starring in huge movies, becoming a household name, and marrying seven men along the way — all without explanation to the tabloids. It's all finally revealed in this novel, juicer and more engrossing than you could ever imagine.Length: 400 pages; 12-hour and 10-minute audiobook Note: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.An irresistible queer romanceAmazon"When Katie Met Cassidy" by Camille Perri, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $11.32"When Katie Met Cassidy" is a fun, queer romance that takes place in New York City and reads as easily as watching a rom-com on Netflix. When Katie meets Cassidy, she's just been dumped by her fiancé and after a chance meeting, they end up together in a dimly lit lesbian dive bar. The story is full of chemistry between the two and exploration into tight-knit communities, self-identity, and accepting the love we truly deserve.Length: 288 pages; 6-hour and 21-minute audiobookNote: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A novella that mixes love and science fictionAmazon"This Is How You Lose The Time War" by Amal El-Mohtar and Max Gladstone, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $14.87Part-science fiction and part romance, "This Is How You Lose the Time War" is an award-winning novella about time-traveling rivals. In the midst of a war, two time-travelers on separate missions to secure the best future for their factions find themselves entangled in an unlikely correspondence, leading to a romance that could change the past and the future. This book is lyrical prose with an epic plot line that soars across a fast story, co-written by two renowned sci-fi writers.Length: 224 pages; 4-hour and 16-minute audiobook Note: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A novella from a popular romance writerAmazon"Below Zero" by Ali Hazelwood, available on Amazon and Libro from $2.99Readers love Ali Hazelwood's bestselling romance "The Love Hypothesis," but if you're looking for a shorter read, she's also written a series of STEM-themed novellas. "Below Zero" follows Hannah, a NASA aerospace engineer, on a mission to the Arctic where a storm and a terrible fall leave her fate in the hands of Ian — a gorgeous and brilliant scientist who tried to stop her expedition and possibly ruin her career. Length: 139 pages; 3-hour and 43-minute audiobookFictionA story that's both heartbreaking and heart-warmingAmazon"The Death of Vivek Oji" by Akwaeke Emezi, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $12.79One afternoon in Nigeria, Vivek's mother opens the front door to find her child's body on the front step, wrapped in fabric. The novel is the family's attempt to understand a son they never truly knew, one with a gentle spirit and bright heart. But there is a second, hidden story beneath the one we begin reading — one that reveals itself slowly until all the pieces fit seamlessly together. I personally can't recommend this book enough, it is a masterpiece of being one's self in an escalating crisis and the honoring of love above all else.Length: 256 pages; 7-hour and 38-minute audiobookNote: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A deep narrative about choiceAmazon"Red At The Bone" by Jacqueline Woodson, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $11.95This book tackles so many important issues in so few pages. It spans multiple generations, centered around an unexpected teenage pregnancy and a traditional coming-of-age ceremony which highlights the successes and costs of ambitions despite adversity. "Red At The Bone" is a novel of family legacy, but also education, parenthood, loss, class, sexual desire, and orientation — a poignant story that will have you clinging to every last page.  Length: 224 pages; 3-hour and 52-minute audiobook Note: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A comedy about heartbreakAmazon"Heartburn" by Nora Ephron, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $10.59Though this quick read is about the break up of a marriage, it's known for its hilarity in the face of anguish. Rachel is seven months pregnant when she finds that her husband, Mark, is in love with another woman. While the comedy is its own consolation, so are the recipes Rachel loves to share while intermittently wishing Mark dead. As a bonus, the audiobook is narrated by Meryl Streep, if you need any more reason to pick it up.Length: 179 pages; 5-hour and 30-minute audiobook Note: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A hopeful story about refugeesAmazon"Exit West" by Mohsin Hamid, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $9.89This is an ethereal and borderline magical book about immigration and refugees in a violent world. Nadia and Saeed's love story blooms in a country on the brink of a civil war, bombs and bullets bookending their days with fear when they begin to hear the whispers about doors. Doors that can take them from their homeland to somewhere safe, though alien and riddled with its own challenges. It's an incredibly intimate story, one that steals your heart within the first few pages. Length: 256 pages; 4-hour and 42-minute audiobook Note: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A pop-culture classicAmazon"The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" by Douglas Adams, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $7.43After a series of outrageous events including the announcement that his best friend is an alien, Arthur finds himself navigating an unknown and hostile universe with only "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" in hand with the advice "DON'T PANIC" helpfully inscribed on the front. This has become a pop-culture classic, playing with time, physics, and the universe in a read that always feels like it ends too soon.Length: 208 pages; 5-hour and 51-minute audiobookNote: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A novel about breaking bordersAmazon"Infinite Country" by Patricia Engel, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $12.99Elena and Mauro are undocumented and living in the United States, having overstayed their tourist visa so their children could be raised in a safer country than violence-stricken Columbia. When Mauro is deported, Elena finds herself taking care of three children and running out of choices. This is another book that will absolutely steal your heart, a story that could not possibly be more relevant and is so real, it's hard to believe it isn't true. It's a stunning and profound look at the broken system of immigration, necessary when we refuse to hear others' stories and see them as human beings, more than simply "illegal."Length: 205 pages; 4-hour and 58-minute audiobookNote: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.The original satire that spurred a cult-classic movieAmazon"Fight Club" by Chuck Palahnuik, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $9.99Everyone's heard the famous line "The first rule of fight club is you do not talk about fight club," but even if you've seen the cult-classic film, the book is its own exciting and fast-paced experience. This is a pretty dark and twisty novel where the narrator leaves his job after meeting Tyler, a powerfully captivating young man who runs a secret late-night boxing club in the basement of bars in New York City. "Fight Club" really is a wild ride of a book, a modern and tragic satire of American consumerism and masculinity.Length: 224 pages; 5-hour and 34-minute audiobook Note: the Audible version of this title is also available from the Amazon purchasing page.A moving piece of literary fictionAmazon"The Swimmers" by Julie Otsuka, available on Amazon and Bookshop from $15.99Alice is one of the regular, recreational swimmers at the local pool who is displaced when a crack appears, forced away from her routine and her fellow swimmers. Narrated by Alice's daughter, this intimate literary fiction is about Alice's encroaching dementia and how, without the routine of the pool, she begins to slip into childhood memories of internment camps and chaos. Length: 144 pages; 4-hour and 5-minute audiobookRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

UN Education Agency Launches War On 'Conspiracy Theories' Authored by Alex Newman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) headquarters in Paris on Oct. 12, 2017. (Jacques Demarthon/AFP via Getty Images) The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, better known by its acronym, UNESCO, is escalating its global war on ideas and information it considers to be “misinformation” and “conspiracy theories.” According to the Paris-based U.N. education agency, which released a major report on the subject for educators this summer, conspiracy theories cause “significant harm” and form “the backbone of many populist movements.” Among other concerns, conspiracy theories “foster and reinforce harmful thinking patterns and exclusive worldviews,” the report said. They also “reduce trust in public institutions” and “scientific institutions,” which can drive people to violence or decrease their desire to “reduce their carbon footprint,” UN officials argued in the document. While “all conspiratorial thinking threatens human rights values,” the document says without elaborating, some conspiracy theories are more dangerous than others. In some cases, teachers are even encouraged to report their students to authorities. Examples of “conspiracy theories” cited in the report include everything from widely held and respectable beliefs such as “climate change denial” and “manipulation of federal elections” in the United States, to more far-fetched notions such as the “earth is flat” or “Michelle Obama is actually a lizard.” “There are plenty of crazy thoughts on the Internet, many of which are patently false,” explained Citizens for Free Speech Director Patrick Wood. “The only thoughts being ‘corrected’ are those contrary to the globalist narrative. This proves that the focus is on protecting their own narratives and nothing else.” “UNESCO joins a censorship cartel that now includes the European Union, the U.S. government, the World Economic Forum, social media giants like Facebook and Twitter, and notably, Google,” Wood told The Epoch Times. “Anyone who does not parrot the globalist narrative is by default considered to be a ‘conspiracy theorist.'” At the heart of the global program to combat these ideas and theories are teachers and schools, according to the U.N. agency. Also central is the battle online and in the media, UNESCO documents explain. The latest strategy was unveiled at UNESCO’s “International Symposium on Addressing Conspiracy Theories through Education.” Held in late June in Brussels, the summit brought together academia, governments, civil society, and the private sector to promote “joint action” against conspiracy theories and those who believe or spread them. The plan includes strategies to prevent people from believing in conspiracy theories in the first place as well as tools for dealing with those who already believe them. Several experts on propaganda and free speech, however, warned that the U.N. effort represents a “dangerous” escalation in what they portrayed as a global war on free speech, free expression, questioning official narratives, and dissent more broadly. “What they mean by ‘conspiracy theory’ is any claim or argument or evidence that differs from the propaganda pumped out by the government and media,” warned New York University Professor of Media Studies Mark Crispin Miller, who studies propaganda and government misinformation. “I can’t think of anything more dangerous to free speech and free thought—and, therefore, democracy—than this effort by the U.N., which has no business telling us what’s true and what is not,” Miller told The Epoch Times. “That distinction is not theirs to make, but ours, as free people capable of thinking for ourselves, and unafraid of civil argument.” The Global War on Conspiracy Theories Official efforts to clamp down on “conspiracy theories” and “misinformation” are not new. In fact, Western governments—including the U.S. government—have for years been leading the charge. In 2010, the U.S. State Department, with help from its “Counter Misinformation Team,” published “Conspiracy Theories and Misinformation” on America.gov claiming to debunk various “conspiracy theories.” More recently, the Biden administration has also turned its focus to “conspiracy theories.” Last year, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security repeatedly suggested that belief in widespread voter fraud or alternative views on COVID-19 and public health measures represented a major terrorism threat to the United States. While the Biden administration’s proposed “Disinformation Governance Board” appears to have been shelved for now following a public outcry, the U.S. government has been working closely with technology giants to suppress speech surrounding election fraud, Hunter Biden’s laptop, alternative views on COVID-19, and more. National Public Radio, a tax-funded operation, has published numerous pieces over the last month echoing UNESCO’s talking points about the alleged danger and prevalence of conspiracy theories in schools and beyond. Outgoing senior health official Dr. Anthony Fauci has chimed in recently, too. “What we’re dealing with now is just a distortion of reality, conspiracy theories which don’t make any sense at all pushing back on sound public health measures, making it look like trying to save lives is encroaching on people’s freedom,” he said on MSNBC’s “The Rachel Maddow Show” on Aug. 22. The World Economic Forum, which has become a lightning rod for criticism around the world over its “Great Reset” agenda, is also working to counter ideas it labels misinformation and conspiracy theories. “Key to stopping the spread of conspiracy theories is educating people to be on the lookout for misleading information—and teaching them to be suspicious of certain sources,” senior WEF writer Charlotte Edmond wrote two years ago in a piece for the organization’s website. The U.N. has been central to the global effort. Indeed, the new program is actually an extension of a 2020 initiative by UNESCO and the European Commission dubbed #ThinkBeforeSharing to combat conspiracy theories online. That effort included urging citizens to post links to fact-checking services and even report journalists who may be engaged in conspiracy theorizing to “your local/national press council or press ombudsperson.” In an October 2020 World Economic Forum podcast on “Seeking a cure for the infodemic,” U.N. global communications chief Melissa Fleming boasts of having enlisted over 100,000 volunteers to amplify the U.N.’s views and squelch competing narratives. “So far, we’ve recruited 110,000 information volunteers, and we equip these information volunteers with the kind of knowledge about how misinformation spreads and ask them to serve as kind of ‘digital first-responders’ in those spaces where misinformation travels,” the U.N. communications chief said. The revelation came after years of U.N. and governmental efforts to quash what it describes as extremism, misinformation, and more on the internet. In 2016, the U.N. Security Council launched a “framework” to fight “extremism” online on the heels of a program from the previous year to battle “ideologies” that could lead to violence. But the fresh UNESCO efforts in education signal a dramatic escalation in the battle—especially in the targeting of school children. Combating ‘Conspiracy Theories’ at School Education and schools are at the center of the new UNESCO plan to combat conspiracy theories. “The fight against conspiracy theories, and the antisemitic and racist ideologies they often convey, begins at school, yet teachers worldwide lack the adequate training,” said UNESCO Director-General Audrey Azoulay about the new effort. “That is why today, UNESCO is launching a practical guide for educators, so they can better teach students how to identify and debunk conspiracy theories.” Beyond working through education, the U.N. agency also hopes to expand its efforts to combat the spread of what it refers to as conspiracy theories in the realms of press and social media. “This builds on the wider work we’re doing to strengthen media and information literacy to better prepare learners to navigate a world of algorithms, artificial intelligence and invasive data collection,” added Azoulay, who served in the French government as a member of the Socialist Party before taking over the UN education organization. The UN strategy for fighting conspiracy theories in education lists a number of major objectives for educators. These include teaching teachers how to “identify and dismantle conspiracy theories,” how to develop students’ “resilience to conspiracy theories,” and how to tell the difference between a “real conspiracy” and a “conspiracy theory.” One of the ways offered for educators to determine the veracity of information is to check fact-checking services, which have come under repeated criticism in recent years for being highly politicized and often inaccurate. Many of the services are funded by individuals, such as billionaire founder of Microsoft Bill Gates, who UNESCO says are frequently the target of conspiracy theories. The document also contains multiple strategies for combating conspiracy theories. To fight “harmful information” among students, for example, UNESCO urges teachers to engage in what the agency describes as “prebunking.” “Prebunking is also sometimes called ‘inoculation,’” the report reads. “Psychologists have proven that weakened forms of harmful information, carefully introduced and framed, can help to strengthen the resilience against wider harmful messages, much like a vaccine.” When students believe in ideas because of parental influence, teachers are instructed to seek help from school officials and consider a “mediated conversation with parents.” If a student were to express concerns about the COVID-19 vaccine, teachers are instructed to “state that the vaccine has been scientifically proven to be safe” and “that it is important to get vaccinated to curb the pandemic.” It was not immediately clear whether the relevant section of the UNESCO document was written before public health authorities in the United States and around the world began acknowledging that the COVID-19 injections do not prevent infection from or transmission of the CCP virus that causes COVID-19. In some cases where conspiracy theories involve alleged hate or discrimination, teachers are urged to consider reporting students to “safeguarding authorities or safeguarding officers.” What Is a Conspiracy Theory? The document, titled “Addressing conspiracy theories – what teachers need to know,” defines a conspiracy theory as: “The belief that events are being secretly manipulated by powerful forces with negative intent. Typically, conspiracy theories involve an imagined group of conspirators colluding to implement an alleged secret plot.” The UNESCO report moves on to offer warnings about, and definitions for, misinformation, disinformation, hate speech, and fake news. One term that is not defined in the document, however, is the word “conspiracy” itself. Most dictionaries define it as an illegal or immoral plot carried out in secret involving two or more individuals. State and federal law-enforcement authorities charge large numbers of people with the crime of “conspiracy” each year. In its short guide for telling the difference between “real” conspiracies and mere “theories,” the U.N. report divides the thinking into two broad categories. The first, dubbed “conventional thinking” in the UNESCO document, uses Watergate as an example of a real conspiracy uncovered by following evidence and having “healthy” skepticism. The other mode of thinking, labeled “conspiratorial thinking,” features a “birds aren’t real” theory that concludes birds are robots spying on people and the government creates replica eggs to cover it all up. This conclusion is reached as a result of “overriding suspicion” and “over interpreting evidence,” UNESCO said. In the real world, experts say the line between conspiracy theory and conspiracy fact is far less obvious. According to a 2020 YouGov-Cambridge Globalism poll cited in the UNESCO document, strong majorities believe in overarching “conspiracy theories” in many nations. Almost eight in 10 Nigerians, for example, said they believed in “a single group of people who controlled world events.” Almost six out of 10 Mexicans, 56 percent of Greeks and 55 percent of Egyptians believed that, too, the poll showed. One of the reports at the center of the new UNESCO effort, “The Conspiracy Theory Handbook” by Stephan Lewandowsky and John Cook, also acknowledges that conspiracies exist and are not uncommon. “Real conspiracies do exist,” the report admits at the start. “Volkswagen conspired to cheat emissions tests for their diesel engines. The U.S. National Security Agency secretly spied on civilian internet users. The tobacco industry deceived the public about the harmful health effects of smoking. We know about these conspiracies through internal industry documents, government investigations, or whistleblowers.” The U.N. documents also outline various reasons why people believe in conspiracy theories. These include feelings of powerlessness, coping mechanisms for handling uncertainty, or seeking to claim minority status. Evidence is not listed as a reason why people might believe in a conspiracy theory. One of the “case studies” listed in the UNESCO document refers to Mikki Willis’s documentary “Plandemic.” Among other points, the film and the experts who are interviewed argue that COVID-19 may have been created in a laboratory for sinister purposes. Reached by The Epoch Times, Willis slammed the U.N. and its effort to “indoctrinate” people. “When I hear that the U.N. is now directing its indoctrination towards teachers, I become concerned about the well-being of our future generations,” he said, adding that the U.N.’s attack on “conspiracy theories” was an effort to stop the truth. “The fact that they continue to use my film series as an example of what they’re fighting against says everything we need to know,” continued Willis, saying the vast majority of scientists now agree with key points in his film and yet “propagandists” keep trying to “perpetuate the lies.” Critics Sound the Alarm Multiple experts in the field of propaganda warned The Epoch Times that the UNESCO initiative was a major threat to free expression. Organisation for Propaganda Studies Co-Director Piers Robinson said these kinds of developments are “extremely dangerous.” “Basic principles of freedom of expression remind us that, because we can never be sure who is right and who is wrong, all ideas and arguments need to be evaluated through a process of rational scrutiny and debate,” Robinson told The Epoch Times. “Censoring arguments and opinions believed to be wrong means we risk censoring the truth.” Explaining that these dangers have long been understood, Robinson quoted the great 19th-century British philosopher John Stuart Mill. “First: the opinion which it is attempted to suppress by authority may possibly be true. Those who desire to suppress it, of course deny its truth; but they are not infallible,” Mill said. “All silencing of discussion is an assumption of infallibility.” Robinson, who also serves as co-editor of Propaganda in Focus and sits on the executive committee of Pandemics Data & Analytics (PANDATA.org), also cautioned that powerful actors with large budgets would likely be involved in deciding what is true and not. “This means allowing powerful actors to define reality and, as history shows, they will define reality in a way that serves their own interests,” he said. “This is all contradictory to democracy and, of course, the reason why freedom of expression is understood to be so important: we must be free to scrutinize and criticize those in power in order to guard against tyranny and abuse of power.” Robinson also blasted the use of the term “conspiracy theory” as “deeply problematic,” saying it was a term often used to shut down discussion on serious issues and questions about powerful actors. “If we value democracy and the ideas of freedom of expression and rational debate, UNESCO could do useful work on helping people of the world to think for themselves, and develop their own critical skills,” he concluded. “They should not be in the business of telling people what to think.” Another expert on propaganda, environmental political theory Professor Tim Hayward at the University of Edinburgh, also warned that efforts to demonize and silence “conspiracy theories” was really an effort to pathologize dissent and inconvenient lines of questioning. “Instead of reasoned arguments put forward by critics and dissidents being met with proper consideration and rebuttal, they are just dismissed out of hand; and the critics themselves are smeared with the name conspiracy theorists,” warned Hayward, who has written a number of peer-reviewed academic papers on the subject in recent years. “Worse, of course, is that the general denigration of dissent is used to whip up moral panic about ‘disinformation’ and to try and justify increased censorship,” he added. Hayward views the focus on education to combat “conspiracy theories” as particularly concerning. “It is truly worrying when those responsible for the strategic communications challenged by dissidents get to infiltrate education systems and implant prejudices in favor of ‘official stories’ which are only official because they are backed by political authority rather than actual epistemic authority,” he said. While Hayward cautioned that he was not necessarily accusing UNESCO of doing this, he warned that the organization and its programs needed to be watched as this was a troubling trend. It would be better to teach children “the fundamentals of critical reasoning” so they can detect falsehoods on their own, he told The Epoch Times. “You cannot reasonably identify disinformation or reject a ‘conspiracy theory’ unless you have a robust and defensible grip on what is reliable information,” he said, calling for “logical thinking” and “broad knowledge” to help people guard against disinformation from adversaries or even their own leaders. “That should be the focus of education.” Truth or Misinformation? The fresh push to quash “misinformation” and “conspiracy theories” online comes as the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other federal agencies increasingly admit that much of what was labeled false during the pandemic turned out to be correct. Read more here... Tyler Durden Wed, 09/07/2022 - 08:16.....»»

     The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Kenneth Tropin, Graham Capital Management, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Bloomberg, and Acast. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.   ANNOUNCER: This is Masters in… Read More The post Transcript: Kenneth Tropin appeared first on The Big Picture.      The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Kenneth Tropin, Graham Capital Management, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Bloomberg, and Acast. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.   ANNOUNCER: This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio. RITHOLTZ: This week on the podcast, I have yet another extra special guest. And this is really a fascinating extra special guest who you probably never heard of, but you should. His name is Ken Tropin. Where do I even begin with him? He is a member of the Futures Hall of Fame. He is the chairman and founder of Graham Capital Management, which runs $18 billion and has amassed quite a track record. He used to work with John Henry, currently the owner of the Boston Red Sox, and another successful hedge fund manager. He worked with Paul Tudor Jones. The list of people he knows and has trained with and under is quite astonishing. The firm that he’s built is one of those very quiet, very successful entities that without a whole lot of media coverage, without a whole lot of fanfare, just amassed an enormous amount of capital because they’ve done so well for their clients over time. I found the conversation with Ken to be absolutely fascinating, and I think you will also. If you’re all interested in macro investing, trend following, commodities, currencies, fixed income, various types of quantitative strategies, and most important of all, risk management, you’re going to find this conversation to be absolutely fascinating. With no further ado, my interview of GCM’s Ken Tropin. I want to start with your background. You began at Shearson in the 1980s. Tell us a little bit about those days. KENNETH TROPIN, CHAIRMAN AND FOUNDER, GRAHAM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT: Well, you know, here we are at a very different place and time, so it’s kind of cool to reflect back on what was happening in 1980. RITHOLTZ: Like, very different universe, right? TROPIN: Right. Well, for example, interest rates were 14% when I started at Shearson. RITHOLTZ: And those were Treasuries. We’re not talking junk bonds here. TROPIN: Yeah. No, no, no. And in fact, I think we got as high as 20 early in my career. And so, you know, it was a very interesting time to begin, which I did as an account executive at Shearson. And then in 1982, Dean Witter recruited me to join them and to really start managing what was their fledgling hedge fund practice, which was really with CTAs back in that era, and then evolved into, you know, more macro style funds. RITHOLTZ: So you eventually become director of Managed Futures at Dean Witter Reynolds. TROPIN: Yup. RITHOLTZ: That’s pretty early in the managed futures history. Tell us a little bit about that era. TROPIN: Sure. It was an era where, you know, first of all, the markets were really inefficient, right? RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: So it was very fertile to do what we do because markets moved a lot. There was a lot of volatility. And I think it’s almost the polar opposite of where the world has been the last few years, where volatility has been so much subdued, and you know, equities have been such a strong performer. But back in 1982, you know, stocks were very quiet. They were in a trading range. Interest rates were super high. Commodity markets were moving a lot. And there wasn’t a lot of competition, if you’re a trader in that early part of the industry’s history. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about that inefficiency for a moment. Today, you want to hang a shingle or you want to open your own proprietary trading, it’s very difficult to find an edge and consistently make money. Back in the 1980s, that wasn’t necessarily the case. TROPIN: Yeah. I mean, relatively simple trading systems made money. And you know, they had volatility, and people were okay with volatility because everything was volatile back then. And so, you know, it was relatively, I wouldn’t say straightforward because I don’t think generating consistent profits has ever been something that’s so straightforward or so easy. But on a relative basis, it was easier. And of course, when you have a young industry, that’s a great time to get involved. RITHOLTZ: Yeah, to say the very least. So after Dean Witter Reynolds, you end up as CEO of John Henry and Company. Tell us a little bit about that experience. TROPIN: Yeah. John was one of our managers that we had, you know, our clients invest in. And in 1989, he and I explored, me leaving Dean Witter to join his firm as CEO. His company was in California at that time. I wanted to be on the East Coast. We moved the firm to Connecticut, and I was there for about four and a half years. And then he and I saw things differently in 1993. And I parted company, and you know, had a lot of time to think about what I wanted to do, and ultimately decided I wanted to start up my own fund. And that’s how Graham got, you know, underway in the spring of 1994. RITHOLTZ: So we’re going to talk a lot more about Graham, but John Henry seem to have done pretty okay for himself. TROPIN: Sure. I mean, he now owns the Red Sox, among things. RITHOLTZ: Yeah, relocated to Boston, right? TROPIN: And you know, he’s done very, very, very well. He’s left the finance world, but he’s certainly not left the business world. RITHOLTZ: And he seemed to have brought the same set of analytical chops to owning the Red Sox as he did in his own hedge fund. TROPIN: Yeah, I think that’s kind of who he is. RITHOLTZ: Quantitative database and logical decisions, which, you know, seemed to have broken the Curse of the Babe. TROPIN: Well, yeah, you know, let’s face it, right? I mean, it was a year that they were down 3 and 0 to the Yankees or something, and then ended up prevailing in that World Series. I’m a Yankee fan so I can’t say I was rooting for that, but that’s what happened. RITHOLTZ: A hundred years was all it took to overcome that one mistake. All right. So let’s talk a little bit about founding Graham Capital in 1994. You leave John Henry. You have a little time to think about what you want to do. What was the process like launching a new hedge fund in the early to mid ‘90s? TROPIN: I mean, this is not an easy thing to do ever. I would say would probably somewhat, you know, easier to do in ‘94 than it would be today, where the world has become so institutional. And you know, I’ve been longtime close friends with Paul Jones and Mark Dalton, the President, and you know, when Paul, the founder and CEO of Tudor. And when I left Henry, we talked about a couple of ideas I had about starting my own fund, and they were kind enough and eager to invest and help me seed Graham, which made it a lot easier to get the fund off the ground. RITHOLTZ: Sure. TROPIN: And I invested my prop capital alongside of their prop capital, and we began trading in I guess it was July or something like that of 1994. RITHOLTZ: What sort of strategies were you using when you first launched the firm? TROPIN: Yeah. So it was trend following systems that I designed. And they had some features to them that were intended to take advantage of what’s very good about trend following, which is sort of capturing these big right tail moves. But we’re also intended to not have some of the givebacks that people associate with trend following when trends reverse. And those were techniques that I came up with, that I thought would work. They ended up being pretty successful. And that’s, you know, in the early days of Graham, like any new hedge fund, I did everything from designing trading systems to executing those systems. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk a little bit about trend following because people who are professional traders, or especially futures and commodities traders, are fairly familiar with that strategy. I don’t know if all our listeners are. The basic concept is when one of these asset classes starts a long move, they tend to go much further and much longer than people typically expect, and you want to capture as much of that move as possible. Is that too much of an oversimplification? TROPIN: Yeah. That’s a pretty good description. RITHOLTZ: Yeah. TROPIN: And think of it this way, that a good trend following system will identify based on momentum signals, that a trend is underway. Let’s take a recent example, energy prices. Everybody knows energy prices have gone up in the last six months quite a bit. And you know, a simple trend following system is going to identify that this is a strong trend, and it’s going to get you on the right side of that trend. Now, at some point, that trend is going to end. And that same trend following system is never going to predict the exact top, but it’s going to get you out of that trend after it’s made some amount of profit on the way up. And it’s always going to expect to lose some of those profits when the trend reverses, but still end up capturing the meat of the trend. So if you could say that the maximum size of a trend was, say, 100, maybe you might capture 60% or 70% of that trend. And if you’re able to do that in a diverse number of markets and asset classes, while managing risk in the markets that aren’t trending, you know, that’s in general how trend following works. It’s much better to be involved in trend following when markets are moving. And when markets are quiet and sideways, not as easy to make money in turn. RITHOLTZ: Right. Right. I’m thinking about how you catch the reversal at the end. Obviously, you have to be willing to give back some of the profits before it’s clear that the trend was broken. How do you avoid the false positives, the whipsaws? I can count how many times when I was a young Turk on a trading desk, you would get shaken out of a move, and then it would, as soon as you’re gone, immediately go back to the prior trend. TROPIN: Yeah. It’s a great question. There are a lot of technologies that people use that we use. You know, some of those technologies can include having multiple signals and multiple time horizons. So maybe your quick systems get shaken out on sort of a minor or medium reversal. But your longer term systems, for example, take longer to get knocked out. And so most people I know who do this do not have one-time horizon. RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: They use multiple time horizons. That’s just an example of a technique that’s easy to understand. RITHOLTZ: You guys do everything from quantitative analysis to macro. Tell us a little bit about your approach to trading the markets. TROPIN: Sure. Well, as you sort of referenced, we do a lot of different trading styles at Graham. We do discretionary macro trading, which is typically a portfolio manager — and we have some number of portfolio managers, 15 or 18 different portfolio managers that independently manage a book of, you know, risk assets. And they will decide what they’re going to buy and sell. And they’re going to live with certain risk policies, and they’re going to, hopefully, not be all doing the same thing at the same time. And then we also run a large quantitative business, which is a model-driven, you know, computer trading system business that is also really diversified in the types of models it uses. Some are pure momentum-based models which people identify with trend following. But then there are some models that are value-based, that are fundamentally based. Some, you know, are smart systems that are learning systems. So there are a lot of different ways to hopefully make money in the macro markets that we are involved in. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk a little bit about that diversification. If you have 18 different portfolio managers, and I know you’re only half joking when you say “we hope they’re not all doing the same things,” by design, the assumption is each of them are bringing a different approach to the assets they’re covering, or is it possible that some of them are overlapping with others? TROPIN: Yeah. Well, the answer is yes to both. So we currently have 15 different teams, not 18, although there are a couple of teams that are pretty close to joining us. And many of them are going to be trading the most important macro market. So you know, that’s fixed income markets. That’s the equity markets. That’s the foreign exchange markets, and to some extent, commodities. And some of them are going to have similar views when really interesting big moves are happening. An example of that is there was a big move up and rates that sort of peaked in May, and a lot of our traders got involved in that and benefited from rates going up in Germany and rates going up in the United States. There are other times where they have very different time horizons. And so one trader might, you know, be long U.S. fixed income, and a trader right next to him is short. And they could both actually be right, depending on the time horizon. So somebody who has a very short term trading style could be short for a week and get out and make a profit doing that. While the other trader who’s long is waiting, you know, for 6 to 8 or 12 weeks for his position to accomplish what he thinks he should accomplish. So different time horizons, different assets. We have traders that are involved in, you know, a lot of interest rate derivatives, swaps, the yield curve, things that our trading systems don’t always get involved in, but our traders will. So for example, as you know, there’s been this giant flattening of the yield curve. That’s been something that a number of our traders have been involved in, something that typically the, you know, technical systems wouldn’t be so involved in. RITHOLTZ: And you sit on the risk management committee, when you have all these teams with a lot of authority and a lot of independence, trading their own models, how do you manage that? That sounds like that’s a lot of balls in the air at once. TROPIN: It is. But you know, we have a lot of technology to support all of that. We have risk systems that are live P&L reporting models that tell us what every trader’s performance is every minute of the day that the markets are open. RITHOLTZ: Wow. TROPIN: And then we meet every day at 9:30 and have since 2008, to look at every trader’s portfolio, how has it changed since the previous day? Who’s added to risk? Who’s got risk? What assets are they in? We run stress tests on all of their positions. We see who’s performing well, who might be struggling. And you know, if we have to encourage a trader to reduce risk or do nothing, we, as the senior management team of the firm, are acutely aware of exactly what the firm’s risk is at any minute of the day. And I think it’s that discipline to meet and have, you know, total transparency into risk taking helps manage, you know, the outcome quite a bit. RITHOLTZ: And you guys have been doing this for almost 30 years, so you obviously know a thing or two about risk management. I look around this year, I see some quant-focused hedge funds blowing up to say nothing of all the venture investments into crypto. And some of the crypto funds really just losing 90%, 95%, in some cases, a 100% of their assets. As someone who is a professional risk manager, when you look out, what do you see when the world around you has these frequent flare-ups? TROPIN: Well, you know, it always gives you religion about managing risk, right? RITHOLTZ: Yeah. TROPIN: I mean, at the end of the day, it’s awfully important to make money for our clients and on our proprietary capital for ourselves. But the only way you’re going to do that is by managing the downside. And so we’re just really conservative in our risk policies. We’re not so conservative that there’s no breathing room to make money because if you’re not willing to lose some money, you can’t make any money. I mean, it’s an age old thing in investing and trading. But the question is how much. And we’re just very process-driven in how we look at risk, how we analyze it. You know, we’ve learned that we just have to make some hard decisions fairly quickly at certain moments. And we’ve had moments where we’ve had traders lose more than we would have liked them to have lost. We’ve got trading systems that have had bad cycles. But we have prevailed over 29 years because, in general, we avoid, you know, some really bad experiences that sort of, as you alluded to, we try not to let that happen to us or to our clients. RITHOLTZ: It’s pretty clear that a number of the funds that have blown up didn’t seem to have a whole lot of risk controls in place. It’s one thing to take a loss, it’s another thing to let a bad situation become a fatal one. TROPIN: Yeah. Well, I think that, you know, it kind of speaks to who is Graham. We’re a conservative firm. We’ve been doing this for 29 years. I’ve been involved in the markets for over 40. You’ll learn a lot over that amount of time that, you know, you can’t be in a hurry to try and make a profit. RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: You’ve got to just, you know, be a patient investor. You got to be an opportunistic investor. And if you manage conservatively your business, I like the odds of you finding the moments when it’s good for what you do and capitalizing on it. RITHOLTZ: You know, I’m going to editorialize briefly, but I’ve had this conversation — Third Bridge Forum has a huge archive of expert interviews. Their content covers both public and private companies in any sector across all major geographies around the globe. To give you a sense, last year, over 16,000 investment professionals from a thousand firms, private equity, public equity and credit, downloaded approximately 500,000 interview transcripts from Third Bridge Forum. Each transcript covers a one-hour in-depth interview between an unbiased sector analyst and a specially sourced industry executive. Find out how the globe successful investors use Third Bridge to make better decisions at thirdbridge.com/mib. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) RITHOLTZ: — countless times about just be long term greedy, just be patient, it will come to you and everybody that seems to get into trouble, whether it’s a trader or a fund, or whatever, it’s always that hurry that seems to cause their disasters. TROPIN: Yeah, that’s a factor for sure. It’s not the only one, right? Like liquidity can change. RITHOLTZ: Sure. TROPIN: And that is something that can bite you when something that was relatively liquid and easy to get in and out of becomes eloquent. RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: And you know, we’ve seen that in some of the situations you described earlier of funds having problems. And so one of the things we really scrutinize as risk managers is what’s happening with liquidity? How is it changing? And is there any adverse behavior as it relates to liquidity that we should be very careful and thoughtful about? RITHOLTZ: And last question about the various teams, does everybody have a different benchmark? How do you track performance? Is it strictly absolute returns, or are people working towards a specific bogey that they’re comparing themselves with? TROPIN: Yeah. It’s really an absolute return business. And you know, we are trying to have our traders generate, you know, call it high single digits, low double digit returns, with relatively moderate volatility. So annual volatility of 4%, or something like that. And that’s a pretty good ballpark idea of the parameters that we ask traders to live within. And that’s a pretty comfortable place for our clients. You know, our — RITHOLTZ: Meaning the amount of risk they’re willing to assume relative to potential reward? TROPIN: Correct. RITHOLTZ: Really, really interesting. I want to start talking about the current environment with a quote of yours that I really like. You said, “I can’t recall a more interesting time to be a macro investor since the financial crisis.” Tell us a little bit about that. I haven’t heard a lot of people describe this year 2022 that way. TROPIN: Yeah. Well, you know, because we’re a macro-oriented fund, what we’re really concerned with is what’s happening with interest rates, what’s happening with foreign exchange, what’s happening with commodity prices, and what’s happening with equity prices. And all of those four sectors have been moving a lot. And so that’s a really fertile, constructive environment for us to try and generate returns. RITHOLTZ: Meaning if they’re moving, you’re finding opportunities? TROPIN: Exactly. You know, for us, it’s nowhere near as productive environment if asset classes are really quiet. If you think about interest rates as an example, you know, today is a Fed meeting. But, you know, think about that Germany didn’t raise rates for 10 years until recently, right? So just practically speaking, there’s going to be less to do if you’re trading German interest rates, and the central banks not moving them for 10 years. Now, rates are moving and they’re moving a lot. If you think about the U.S., you know, the central bank started giving us something they never used to do, which was forward guidance, saying, “Not only are we not changing rates today, but we’re telling you we’re not going to change rates for the foreseeable future.” RITHOLTZ: I’m so glad you said that because I remember in the 1990s, CNBC used to have the Greenspan briefcase indicator, how thick or thin the briefcase he carried into the FOMC meeting was their hint as to what was going to go on with rates. That’s a different world. Now, they literally say, “This is what we’re doing.” Earlier this last week, or two weeks ago, somebody at the Fed said to Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal, “Hey, we’re going 75 basis points.” There’s no misunderstanding. They are not just telegraphing, explicitly telling us what they’re going to do, how does that affect your ability to find opportunities? TROPIN: Well, so here’s the thing, if they’re telling us they’re going to do nothing, that’s not so helpful. RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: If they’re telling us that they’re going to be moving interest rates a lot, and they’re not just going to do this at one meeting, but over some series of meetings for the next year or something, then there’s a lot to work with in terms of the markets. They’re going to move a lot. They’re going to overreact. They’re going to give us, you know, trading opportunities, both on the long and short side. And so when I say the markets are more interesting, they’ve been for a really long time, it’s for a variety of reasons. Markets are moving. We’ve got central banks all over the world starting to move. We’ve got equity prices moving a lot. You know, there’s a big realization of P/E to lower levels, right, as earnings start to decline and erode. You’ve got commodity prices that went through the roof in the first third of this year because of supply chain issues, the Ukraine war, and so on. And then you’ve got the dollar making one of the biggest moves that I’ve seen in a long time, like 20 years. RITHOLTZ: Yeah. TROPIN: I mean, we’ve had a move in dollar-yen. It was 25%. We haven’t seen that in a long time. RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: So that makes — RITHOLTZ: And euro parity is — TROPIN: Exactly. So you’ve had great moves in a lot of markets. And what I’m excited about is I don’t see that changing into a quiet moment anytime soon. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about next year. But before we get to that, I want to ask you about last year. So 2021, for equity investors, hey, plus 28% seemed like a great year. But if you’re a volatility trader, markets were never less than 5% from all-time highs. It was a shockingly quiescent year, straight up, and hardly any move. Was 2021 a less interesting year than 2022? TROPIN: Yeah, for sure. Definitely. I mean, we’re able to generate on average returns last year, a positive year. But there’s way more to do this year. And you know, last year, if you’re going to have a good year, you had to be essentially long beta. RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: And we like — RITHOLTZ: From the beginning of the year and straight through. TROPIN: Correct. And just be patient and stay with it. RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: And you know, we certainly did that on a portion of what we look at as our risk budget. But we’re much happier. We’re going to be more profitable. There’s going to be more interesting environment when, you know, you’re not looking at one asset class and that’s the only game in town, but rather there’s something to do in foreign exchange, or something to do in rates, or something to do in commodity, something to do in credit. All of these asset classes now are moving and moving a lot. RITHOLTZ: So 2021 not so interesting, 2022 very interesting. Why do you believe 2023, this high interest, high volatility environment is going to continue into next year? TROPIN: Yeah. So the question, of course, is I expect there to be plenty of volatility next year, will it be as volatile as ‘22? Maybe not. But will it be volatile enough for it to be fertile for what we do and constructive for what we do? And I think the answer to that is yes. So I’m cautiously optimistic that will be the case. And I say that because I think of some of the problems that the Fed is trying to manage through and central banks in Europe are trying to manage through. These problems I don’t see ending when we flip the calendar on ’23. RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: You know, the supply chain bottleneck is going to end that soon. RITHOLTZ: No, no, it’d all be good January 1. It will go away. TROPIN: Exactly my point. So there are secular issues that are causing inflation, that I believe the Fed really can’t do that much about. And I think the problem that inflation causes for central banks are not going away so quickly. So I think this year may be unusually good for macro, but I think the upcoming several years are going to be also pretty interesting for what we do. RITHOLTZ: So the consensus of economists has the Fed raising 75 basis points today, July 27th, and then another 75 in September, and then — TROPIN: I think 50 is the base. RITHOLTZ: Is that where that’s now moving back towards? TROPIN: Yeah, I think it’d be 50. RITHOLTZ: Because the prior hint was 75. TROPIN: Yeah, I think when we got that — RITHOLTZ: But the economy really seems to be slowing. TROPIN: Well, we got that really bad inflation print a few weeks ago. RITHOLTZ: Right. For June. TROPIN: And then, you know, we’ve gotten some weaker data since. And so I think people have priced in 50 basis points in the next hike, and then there’ll maybe one — RITHOLTZ: And then cuts in 2023. TROPIN: That’s the thing. They’re pricing and also cuts in ‘23. Maybe, maybe not. You know, I’m not so — RITHOLTZ: You’re not in that camp? TROPIN: I’ll wait and see. I mean, I think we need to see inflation get a lot closer to the Fed’s target. And you know, I don’t see inflation coming down as rapidly as the market is pricing in Fed cuts. RITHOLTZ: Oh, really? That’s very interesting. TROPIN: Right. So in order for the Fed to want to cut, they’re going to need to see inflation contract quite a bit. And it will contract from the very high levels it’s at now. But will it go down to their target? I’m not sure. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about commodities. Lumber cut in half. Copper down 30%. TROPIN: Yeah. RITHOLTZ: Oil under a 100. What are we like? 32 days in a row of gasoline prices falling. TROPIN: Yeah. RITHOLTZ: Industrial metals also down 25%, 30%. Most of the commodity complex that really ran amok seems to be starting to roll over and soften. How do you view that? Is that just — TROPIN: I view that as helpful, for sure. But, you know, have rents collapsed? No. RITHOLTZ: No. And they’re sticky too. TROPIN: Housing is really tight. Labor still really, really tight. The employee still has the upper hand, you know, as it relates to — RITHOLTZ: Is that still true? Because the sense seems to be you have layoffs at the tech firms. They were in a mad dash to hire. They overhired. And now, some of the retailers are talking about easing Amazon and Walmart. It feels like the great resignation is over. And whatever upper hand employees had, they seem to have lost a little hand over the past few weeks. TROPIN: I think that’s a perception, not necessarily the reality. I think that will become reality. I don’t think we’re there. I don’t think psychology changes so fast. So I think, you know, employees here at Bloomberg do have remote work policy. RITHOLTZ: Right. And free lunch. So in perspective view is skewed. TROPIN: And most firms, you know, have similar policies. And I think that’s reflective of employee having a lot of leverage over employers. And these policies will probably evolve, you know, because they all got birthed out of COVID, and so on, an incredibly hot labor market. But I don’t see drastic changes yet in how employees are thinking and what their work expectations are. I think that we’ll get to there, but we’re not there. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) RITHOLTZ: You know, it used to be “How do you keep them down on the farm once they’ve seen Gay Perry?” And now it’s “Hey, how the hell do you get them back into the city?” They want to work from the farm. The world has changed. Personally, I can’t help but notice how much more productive and efficient I am up into a point where, “All right, I got to get the hell out of the same four walls.” I’m wondering how that extrapolates out to the entire labor market. TROPIN: Yeah. I think it really depends on what people do, right? I mean, I think, you know, some people can be very effective working remotely. And I think others are more effective when they collaborate. RITHOLTZ: Sure. TROPIN: And I think it’s easier to learn, right, when you’re around people who are very bright and very innovative. And you know, you can hopefully piggyback some of that knowledge and experience, and have it improve your knowledge base and your skill set. And so I’m a big fan of, you know, people working in offices to a significant degree. But I also understand that a lot of people really enjoy working remotely, and I understand that. I mean, it’s very efficient, right? RITHOLTZ: Right. But it’s pretty clear that there’s going to be some form of hybrid at most major employers going forward. TROPIN: Right. Right. RITHOLTZ: The question is, is it 4 and 1? Is it 3 and 2? It’s not going to be 0 and 5 like it was for two years. That’s pretty much done. TROPIN: I have to agree with that. RITHOLTZ: Yeah. Let’s talk a little bit about some interesting trends that we’ve seen play out in 2022 and whether or not they’ll continue for the rest of the year. We haven’t talked a lot about equities. But if I think of anything in 2022, finally. value has started to show its advantage after lagging growth for practically a decade. Do you guys look at these sorts of factors? Is that one thing to consider? TROPIN: We do. I mean, a lot of our training systems are sort of momentum-based systems. But then we also have value based quantitative models, and our traders are definitely looking at value. And you know, look, equities have come down a lot. But I think the question is what’s next? And you know, to me, do we test the lows? You know, we’ve bounced about 7% off the lows in the last few weeks. You know, it would not surprise me as earnings slow down and the economy slows down. And the fact that these rate hikes begins to kick in, you know, earnings should deteriorate. And the question is how much and how much we’ll spend in contract and things like that? And what kind of demand destruction are we going to see? So I think equities probably have some downside on them. On the other hand, the bull cases, there’s not a lot else to do with money. And so, you know, the sell-offs are pretty well bought by institutional investors. RITHOLTZ: Said differently, what’s already in the price? So let me throw a couple of things at you. We talked earlier, down 20%, more or less price is in a recession, right, or at least a mild recession? Is that a fair assessment the way you would think about the macro environment of stocks as a leading indicator? TROPIN: You know, I don’t know that’s all priced in there because think about it, we’re up 28% last year, right? RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: So it’s a lot. And we were down 20% this year. RITHOLTZ: And up 21% the year before. TROPIN: Right. RITHOLTZ: So this is just a little mean reversion. TROPIN: You know, I think of this as sort of a very normal correction after the years and years and years of unusually good performance for equities. And I’m not sure that a recession is completely priced in. RITHOLTZ: Interesting. TROPIN: I think the slowdown in the economy is somewhat priced in, but I think we could see lower prices from here. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about earnings both second quarter and third quarter. Second quarter earnings have started to trickle out, a few disappointments, but stocks really haven’t been punished. The way when we saw a first quarter 2022 earnings come out in April, if you missed, you got (Gillette) down 20%, 30%. Walmart, really, I can’t say on radio what they did, but terrible. The stock was off 8% or 9%. It’s really relative to how badly they missed. I was surprised that that’s all they were down. So the question is, what does it mean when stocks aren’t punished when bad news comes out? TROPIN: So I think perhaps part of the explanation is that there was a deleveraging that occurred in the first quarter. And I think that is somewhat behind us. So — RITHOLTZ: Meaning that very richly valued stocks — TROPIN: Yeah. I mean — RITHOLTZ: So this is more multiple contraction than being punished for missing earnings? TROPIN: I mean, you know, there were equity hedge funds that were pretty levered, that had pretty highly concentrated, you know, growth bets, and a lot of technology companies and so on. And a lot of those equities went down a lot. And a lot of those funds had to exit and a lot of investors, you know, exited some of those positions, and then come back to Earth. And so I think some of the deleveraging has already occurred, and that’s why the reaction function is not as severe as you see new earnings hit the tape. RITHOLTZ: Really intriguing. So let’s talk a little bit about third quarter earnings. If the Fed goes 50 or 75 in September, is the market pricing in a potential decrease from record highs for S&P 500 earnings? TROPIN: I don’t think we’re pricing that yet. And I’d be a bit surprised if we don’t — if we have continuing, you know, erosion of earnings, I think equity prices will follow that. Well, I’m not forecasting another 20% down, but I do think we could go down 5% or 10%. RITHOLTZ: Easily, right? TROPIN: Yeah. RITHOLTZ: I mean, that’s a bad Tuesday down 10%. People forget what a very bad Tuesday — TROPIN: It’s a very bad Tuesday, black Tuesday. RITHOLTZ: That’s right. Or it’s really just a fraction of that. So we talked about if this is pricing in a recession, does it matter if we’re in recession or not now, or will be next year? How do you contextualize the economic data and the broad stamp recession when you’re thinking about managing risk? TROPIN: You know, we obviously have to be concerned with it. And you know, we would not be at all surprised to see the economy contract. The Feds rate hikes take effect, beta slips, prices go down somewhat, if you’re talking about equities. And then at some point, buyers come back and invest because there’s a perception. And if you think about, you know, the last decade or more, if you didn’t buy the dips in equity prices, you are sort of punished by the market. And so there is a psychology that’s been well trained into all investors, institutional and otherwise, that when equities go down, you need to shut your eyes and buy. And so I think we’re going to continue to have that behavior occurring. And you know, we’ll just have to see how it plays out in terms of what does the market do, not just over the next quarter, but over the next several. RITHOLTZ: You were awarded for buying the dip in 2010 when we had the flash crash. You were rewarded for buying the dip in fourth quarter of 2018 when we were down almost 20%. If you bought into the end of the quarter of the pandemic, March Q1, you were awarded. This seems to be the first year where the dip buyers really got their hand smacked by the market. How long does it take? You’ve been doing this for 40 years. How long does it take for that psychology of buy the dip, buy the dip, buy the dip, for that muscle memory to get broken? TROPIN: I think it takes a couple years. RITHOLTZ: Really? TROPIN: Yeah. I don’t know it will happen — I don’t think — RITHOLTZ: Like ’08, ’09 definitely had a big impact on people. TROPIN: Yeah. I think it takes a couple years. I don’t really think it happens in — let’s face it, we’re five, six months into the year, six or seven months in the year now. I mean, I don’t think we’re there. I think, you know, if we were to see two years of poor performance in equities, the buy the dip psychology would really erode a lot. But if you see seven months of poor equity performance, I’m not sure we’re there. RITHOLTZ: So we’re halfway through 2022. We’re looking at the rest of the year and into 2023. Any particular asset class or sector that strikes you as intriguing? Energy, you mentioned earlier, had a great year, the past 12 months. The banking sector really seems to have missed earnings. What looks interesting? TROPIN: Well, the dollar is really interesting. I mean, the dollar is making a big move, and it continues to be a currency, right, that has positive carry versus its counterparts. So you know, rates in the United States are still considerably higher than the rest of the world. RITHOLTZ: And that attracts capital? TROPIN: That’s going to attract capital, you know, until proven otherwise. I mean, Japan has committed to a maximum rate of 25 basis points, while the U.S. is marching on up 75 basis points today. So you know, I think the dollar continues to intrigue me. You know, it’s moved a lot. You have to be cognizant of that. We’ve seen, you know, the dollar moved 25% against the yen. RITHOLTZ: Huge. TROPIN: Well, could it go more? I think so. And could it go more against the euro? I think so. RITHOLTZ: So here’s the pushback from my Gold Bug friends who I have been tormenting for the past decade. Yeah, the dollar is up, but it’s the only clean shirt in a dirty hamper. We’re going to go, the won, the yen the euro, everything else is junk. The dollar is just half decent. How do you respond to that sort of criticism to dollar strength? TROPIN: You know, I guess my question is, does it matter? I mean, if the dollar is going up because — RITHOLTZ: Who cares? TROPIN: Well, because it’s got a much higher interest rate than other currencies, I don’t know if I’d call out that it has a clean shirt. I think it has favorable fundamentals. And people should buy things that have favorable fundamentals and not buy things that have lousy fundamentals. RITHOLTZ: So if the dollar is strong, what does that say about our ability to export? What does that say about global macro travel? I had a buddy who in the late ‘90s, in early 2000s, the last time the dollar was as strong, was flying to Europe, buying 911s and Z8s, and other European sheet metal Ferraris, bringing them back to the U.S., converting them and still selling them at a healthy profit versus what the dealers were asking for, because of the strength of the dollar. How does this impact global trade and other economic factors? TROPIN: It’s a big factor. I think, you know, keep in mind, your supply chain bottleneck problems are as persistent as ever. So you know, our ability to do what you just said, right, to go and start buying Porsches or something, it’s not happening because you can’t get them. RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: So some of that stuff has to work itself out independent of the currency. But, you know, one of the things that’s causing inflation is secular trends, such as supply chain problems and what have you. And that’s one of the reasons I think inflation is going to be around for a while because those secular trends are slow moving. RITHOLTZ: So when you say inflation, we’re obviously or maybe not so obviously, we’re not talking 8%, 9%, but we’re talking elevated above Fed target of 2%? TROPIN: Correct. RITHOLTZ: So 4% or 5% inflation? TROPIN: Correct. Yeah. Maybe we’ll get down to 4% or 5%, but that’s the number the Fed doesn’t like. RITHOLTZ: I like 4% better than 9%. TROPIN: Yeah. RITHOLTZ: But that still means that that’s pressure. TROPIN: But we’re going to move to the right direction. But are we going to move as fast as the Fed would like? I don’t think so. And that’s why I think people who have this expectation that the Fed is going to be cutting rates sometime in the first or second quarter of next year, I’m not sure that’s realistic. RITHOLTZ: So let’s assume you’re right. We’ve seen peak inflation. But transitory takes much longer than expected. TROPIN: Right. RITHOLTZ: And we slowly work our way down to maybe there’s 6 handle by the end of the year, 5 handle. TROPIN: Right. RITHOLTZ: And then sometime next year 4%. What does that mean in terms of wages and people demanding higher salaries? What does that mean in terms of consumer spending? That has to mean mortgage rates are going to be much higher. What does that mean for housing? And lastly, what does that mean for politics? I can’t imagine the present occupant of the White House is happy with that sort of inflation forecast. TROPIN: Yeah. I’m sure he’s not. And I’m sure, you know, the Democratic Party is not very happy going into a midterm election with really high inflation. RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: And you know, I’m not sure, for good or for bad, politicians are really bad involved in managing inflation, right? RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: It’s not what they do. The central banks really had that mandate. RITHOLTZ: They like to pass through around it, but — TROPIN: But they’ll take credit or blame accordingly, you know, depending on what side of the policy you’re on. But I think, you know, we’re going to have a pretty thorny issue, which is that inflation and the things that need to happen for it to go down, just are going to move slowly. And that’s my base case. I could be wrong. We could really contract quicker. I mean, you mentioned that energy prices would come down some. You know, other commodity prices have come down a lot. But let’s also not forget, you know, crude oil is still about $1 right now. And could it come down? Sure. But it hasn’t come down that much. Are we going to get down to 80 cents or something like that? Maybe. But we’re not there. RITHOLTZ: Really intriguing. And last market question, so we’ve seen equity valuations come down. I get the sense you’re expecting cheaper valuations, if not much cheaper valuations. TROPIN: Well, I wouldn’t go so far as to say much cheaper valuation. But I would say I think the risk is to the downside more than the upside. RITHOLTZ: How do we get there? Do we get there through multiple contraction, or do we get there through price? TROPIN: I think it’s really choppy price behavior. I mean, we’re seeing — RITHOLTZ: Stair step down? TROPIN: Yeah, a little bit. I mean, you look at some of these rallies, they’ve had vicious bear market rallies this year, right, where the market was up, you know, 3% one day and 2% or 3% the next day, and so on and so forth. And then the next week is the exact opposite. RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: So I think that kind of erratic behavior, maybe not quite as volatile as that is what I would expect. And I think, you know, there’s a lot of money that needs to get deployed. And if I’m an investor, I’m an institution, I’m going to have so much in hedge funds. I’m going to have so much in private investing. But I need to be in liquid markets. And I’m not going to just exclusively invest in, you know, alternative assets, if you will. So there’s going to be a continuing bet for beta because institutions need to invest a lot of capital. But will the economy continue to support ever higher valuations like the last 10 years? I don’t think we’re there. RITHOLTZ: So one last thing I have to ask, you mentioned institution sitting with capital. Did you imagine, didn’t want to go back to the ‘80s, but even 2000, that there would ever be these many trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars looking for a home? I never, in my wildest dreams, imagined that so much capital would be amassed. How do you contextualize all this money looking for a place to be well treated? TROPIN: Yeah. I mean, it’s almost hard to fathom. RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: I mean, when you think about all of, you know, the quantitative easing that’s gone on, and all of the stimulus, and all of the capital that there is, all the cash in the world, it’s really huge. And I think that is something that is a positive fundamental for equity prices. That cash has to get invested somewhere, sometime, somehow. So even if earnings aren’t great, even if the economy continues to look slow, even if inflation is too high, I think there is an argument to be made that there’s a lot of cash out there looking for a home, and that cash is going to periodically be deployed into equities. RITHOLTZ: Yeah. No, that makes a lot of sense. All right. Before I get to my favorite questions, let me just throw a curveball at you. Graham Capital Management’s headquarters is at a site named Rock Ledge. This used to be the Office of General Douglas MacArthur? TROPIN: Correct. Yeah. RITHOLTZ: Tell us first how did you find Rock Ledge and make it the home of GCM, and tell us a little bit about the place. TROPIN: Yeah. No. Back in, you know, 1994, when I started Graham, we moved into Stamford and we were in Stamford, Connecticut for some number of years. And that was a really good place for us to recruit and retain talent. And a lot of people, you know, enjoyed, as I did, the ability to have access to New York City, but you know, also have good school systems and what have you in the suburbs of New York and in Connecticut. And a lot of hedge funds were in Connecticut. We outgrew the space in Stamford. And so somebody called me and said, you know, this building in Rowayton, Connecticut that’s available and it’s pretty amazing. And I went up and I saw it, and it has, you know, beautiful campus setting of about 100,000 square feet of office space. And you know, it needed a lot of work, but it was really pretty cool. And so I thought, “Gee, what a better place, what a great place to try and attract the best people you could find to work in your fund.” And from a quality of work-life perspective, this was just an amazing place to run a hedge fund, to attract really talented people. You know, the success of a hedge fund is all about the people who work there, and having a great place to work is not unimportant. RITHOLTZ: It looks like a college campus. It’s quite beautiful. TROPIN: Yeah. It’s been fantastic. We’ve been there a long time now, and I’ve enjoyed every minute of it. RITHOLTZ: We’re glad to hear it. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) RITHOLTZ: Let’s jump to Our favorite questions that I asked all of our guests, starting with tell us what kept you entertained during the pandemic. What were you watching or listening to? TROPIN: Well, mostly the markets, you know. And so, obviously, being in a position of monitoring risk and performance, and position taken of all these traders and trading systems, you know, that’s always front and center in my conscious. But, you know, there have been some really good shows that have come out that I’ve enjoyed. You know, there’s recently something I’ve been watching that’s called Tehran. It’s on Apple Plus. It’s a pretty good show. Jeff Bridges is in a good show. I think it’s on FX or something like that called The Old Man. That’s a great show. So you know, everyone needs a break from the markets once in a while. RITHOLTZ: For sure. TROPIN: That’s a couple of things I’ve been watching. RITHOLTZ: Tell us about your early mentors who helped shape your career. TROPIN: Well, you know, I think about some of the people who really were just great mentors and great people to learn from. Paul Jones comes to my mind. I met Paul about 40 years ago. And you know, what an amazing person, philanthropist, great trader, visionary for the world of finance. And you know, I was very fortunate to have him help me get Graham going back in 1994. He’s been an insane role model, not just for me, but for a lot of people in finance. When I was at Dean Witter, I had a really tough boss named Charlie Fiumefreddo that ran Asset Management. Charlie brook no nonsense. He had a Monday morning meeting at 8:00 a.m. every Monday. And you know, all of his division heads, I was one of them, had to be down there in the World Trade Center at 8 o’clock. And man, I left my house at 6:00 because if you got to that office at 8:02, you waited for an hour till the meeting was over outside his office, and then got to explain what you were doing, you know, one on one which wasn’t that much fun. So you know, he was a great boss because he was no nonsense and tough as nails. RITHOLTZ: Tell us about some of your favorite books and what are you reading recently. TROPIN: You know, I like spy novels. So the Portrait of an Unknown Woman, David Silva, just came out. That’s a great book. I’ve always, you know, loved The Trilogy by (inaudible), something I read when I’m totally stressed out, and I want to get into another world. It’s a great place to go. And then I’ve just devour all financial news and technology news, and things like that. RITHOLTZ: Interesting. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college graduate who is interested in a career in macro investment or quantitative trading? TROPIN: You know, the advice I would give is try and get a job at a really good macro fund that has some really bright people. And if you want to get ahead and you want to be successful, it’s really simple. You show up before anyone else. You leave after everyone else. You never are screwing around on the Internet. You’re paying attention to everything that’s happening. And trust me, if you have brains and creativity and innovation, there is no industry that rewards you better. RITHOLTZ: Quite interesting. And our final question, what do you know about the world of investing today you wish you knew 40 years ago when you were first getting started? TROPIN: You know, that’s a tough question. I mean, obviously, on one hand, our trading systems, our traders are so much more sophisticated and it’s more complicated. And you know, we’ve learned a lot of lessons about managing risk. We’ve learned a lot of lessons about being opportunist in certain market cycles, and really conservative in other market cycles. And you know, the only way to learn those lessons is through experience and making some mistakes, and overcoming those mistakes and ultimately prevailing. So you know, it would have been great to never have to learn through, you know, making mistakes, but that’s the way the world works. And I think we’ve been successful because we’ve been intellectually honest with ourselves. When we make a mistake, we own it. RITHOLTZ: Really, really intriguing. Thanks so much, Ken, for being so generous with your time. We have been speaking with Ken Tropin. He is the chairman and founder of Graham Capital Management. If you enjoy this conversation, well, check out any of the previous 400 we’ve done over the past eight years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, wherever you get your favorite podcasts. We love your comments, feedback and suggestions. Write to us at mibpodcast@bloomberg.net. Sign up for my daily reading list at ritholtz.com. Follow me on Twitter @ritholtz. I would be remiss if I did not thank the crack team that helps these conversations come together so well each week. Sarah Livesley [ph] is my audio engineer. Atika Valbrun is my project manager. Paris Wald is my producer. Sean Russo is my head of Research. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. END   ~~~   The post Transcript: Kenneth Tropin appeared first on The Big Picture......»»