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Toll Brothers profit, sales rise on housing demand

Toll Brothers Inc. reported higher second-quarter sales as demand for homes continued to outstrip supply......»»

Category: topSource: foxnewsMay 26th, 2021

5 ETF Areas for Investors to Consider Amid the September Slump

Amid the market uncertainty, we have highlighted some ETF areas that can be good investment options for market participants to combat the September chaos. Wall Street is witnessing a tough time in the historically weak month of September. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 4%, whereas the S&P 500 has lost 3.7% in the month. Not just the reputation of the month, there are other factors like uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s decision, several weak economic data releases, concerns about rising COVID-19 cases and the approaching winter season, a large chunk of unvaccinated population, possibilities of high corporate tax rates, China property market concerns along with inflation pressure that have been keeping investors on the edge.Investors are waiting for the minutes from the Fed’s two-day policy meeting that began on Sep 21. They are concerned about the Fed’s chances of tapering the fiscal stimulus support, which includes the $120 billion a month bond-buying program. Several economic data releases are also weighing on investors’ minds.Amid the market uncertainty, we have highlighted some ETF areas that can be good investment options for market participants amid the September chaos:Healthcare ETFsThe pandemic has triggered a race to introduce vaccines and treatment options, opening up investing opportunities in the healthcare sector. Moreover, the space has been gaining increasing attention lately, largely due to the resurgence in COVID-19 infections due to the Delta variant. This has made investors jittery, compelling them to shift toward defensive investments.Considering the current market situation, investors can consider The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund XLV, Vanguard Health Care ETF VHT, iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF IYH and Fidelity MSCI Health Care Index ETF (FHLC).Retail ETFsThe latest retail sales data has pleasantly surprised investors. The metric rose 0.7% sequentially in August 2021 against market expectations of a 0.8% decline, per a CNBC article. Online retail sales rose 5.3% last month after declining 4.6% in July, per a Reuters article. There was a rise in sales at clothing stores as well as building material and furniture in the previous month. Encouragingly, the core retail sales rebounded 2.5% in August from a downwardly revised drop of 1.9% in July, according to the Reuters article. Importantly, the metric highlights the spending component of GDP.Going on, market analysts expect impressive retail sales in 2021 along with a strong holiday season. The strength in consumer sentiment can be the major driving force as they are believed to be prepared to splurge this holiday season after facing strict restrictions for more than a year and have gathered enough resources.Considering the strong trends, investors may park their money in the following retail ETFs to tap the sales boom -- SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT, Amplify Online Retail ETF IBUY, VanEck Retail ETF RTH and ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) (read: ETFs to Win & Lose as Delta Variant Cases Surge).Housing ETFsThe U.S. housing sector saw a bright spot with strength in housing demand and declining lumber prices. However, headwinds like increasing construction costs and continued material supply-chain worries along with rising home prices remain. These factors took a toll on builder confidence, which declined for three months. Per the monthly National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), builder sentiment for the newly-built single-family homes rose a point to 76 in September from 75 in August, 80 in July, 81 in June and 30 in April (the lowest since June 2012). The reading looks strong as any number above 50 signals at improving confidence.Against such a backdrop, here are a few housing ETFs like iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ITB, SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF XHB, Invesco Dynamic Building & Construction ETF (PKB) and Hoya Capital Housing ETF (HOMZ) (read: Forget Bubble Fear: Bet on Housing ETFs).Dividend ETFsDividend aristocrats are blue-chip dividend-paying companies with a long history of increasing dividend payments year over year. Moreover, dividend aristocrat funds provide investors with dividend growth opportunities in comparison to other products in the space but might not necessarily have the highest yields.‘Dividend aristocrats’ or ‘dividend growers’ are mostly deemed to be the smartest way to deal with market turmoil. Notably, the inclination toward dividend investing has been rising due to easing monetary policy on the global front, and market uncertainty triggered by the pandemic and deceleration in global growth.These products also form a strong portfolio, with a higher scope of capital appreciation as against simple dividend-paying stocks or those with high yields. As a result, these products deliver a nice combination of annual dividend growth and capital-appreciation opportunities and are mostly good for risk adverse long-term investors.Against this backdrop, let’s take a look at some ETFs that investors can consider like Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF VIG, SPDR S&P Dividend ETF SDY, iShares Select Dividend ETF DVY and ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) (read: Tax Hike Worries Drive Last Week's Inflows: 5 Hot ETFs).Low Volatility ETFsDemand for funds with “low volatility” or “minimum volatility” generally increases during tumultuous times. These seemingly-safe products usually do not surge in bull market conditions but offer more protection than the unpredictable ones. Providing more stable cash flow than the overall market, these funds are less cyclical in nature. Here are some options --  iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol USA ETF USMV, Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF SPLV, iShares Edge MSCI EAFE Minimum Volatility ETF EFAV, iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Global ETF (ACWV), Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF (SPHD) (read: Growth Concerns to Drive Demand for Low-Volatility ETFs). Infrastructure Stock Boom to Sweep America A massive push to rebuild the crumbling U.S. infrastructure will soon be underway. It’s bipartisan, urgent, and inevitable. Trillions will be spent. Fortunes will be made. The only question is “Will you get into the right stocks early when their growth potential is greatest?” Zacks has released a Special Report to help you do just that, and today it’s free. Discover 7 special companies that look to gain the most from construction and repair to roads, bridges, and buildings, plus cargo hauling and energy transformation on an almost unimaginable scale.Download FREE: How to Profit from Trillions on Spending for Infrastructure >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV): ETF Research Reports iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF (IYH): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT): ETF Research Reports VanEck Retail ETF (RTH): ETF Research Reports iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG): ETF Research Reports iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY): ETF Research Reports iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF (USMV): ETF Research Reports iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF (EFAV): ETF Research Reports Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY): ETF Research Reports Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 22nd, 2021

Can ETFs Gain From Upbeat US Homebuilder Confidence in September?

The U.S. housing sector scenario seems improving with strength in housing demand and declining lumber prices. The U.S. housing sector saw a bright spot with strength in housing demand and declining lumber prices. However, headwinds like increasing construction costs and continued material supply-chain worries along with rising home prices remain. These factors took a toll on builder confidence, which declined for three months. Per the monthly National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), builder sentiment for the newly-built single-family homes rose a point to 76 in September from 75 in August, 80 in July, 81 in June and 30 in April (the lowest since June 2012). However, the reading looks strong as any number above 50 signals at improving confidence.The current sales conditions index increased a point to 82 in September. The metric measuring traffic of prospective buyers also saw a two-point rise to 61. Sales expectations for the next six months remained flat at 81, per the NAHB press release. The three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores in the Northeast declined a couple of points to 72. Also, the Western Index slipped a couple of points to 83. The Midwest was steady at 68, per the release. Also, the South Index dropped two points to 80.Going by the press release, NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz reportedly commented, “The single-family building market has moved off the unsustainably hot pace of construction of last fall and has reached a still hot but more stable level of activity, as reflected in the September HMI. While building material challenges persist, the rate of cost growth has eased for some products, but the job openings rate in construction is trending higher.”Current U.S. Housing Market ScenarioThe U.S. housing sector pleased investors with an impressive performance despite the tough pandemic times. However, rising softwood lumber, material and labor costs remained a major hurdle for the homebuilders. The supply-chain disturbances majorly at saw mills and ports caused by the lockdown to contain the coronavirus outbreak also escalated concrete, metal products, appliances and other expenses, as mentioned in a FOX Business article.Moreover, there was a sharp rise in the plywood prices. Scarcity in the supplies of copper along with tariffs on steel imports is also bumping up the building costs. The scanty global supplies of semiconductors shrank the supplies of some appliances, per a Reuters article. These factors are affecting affordability as the prices of existing and new homes are soaring.Per the NAHB, the lumber prices plunged more than 60% from the peak reached in May but the overall aggregate residential construction material costs were up 13% on an annual basis in the first eight months of 2021, as mentioned in a Reuters article.Consumers seem disturbed about the elevated prices of homes, vehicles and household durables. In fact, the buying attitude for vehicles and homes is contracting.The housing market steadily benefited from changing demographic preferences of a large chunk of population as people increasingly looked for work-from-home-friendly properties. Individuals were shifting from city centers to suburbs and other low-density areas, looking for spacious accommodations for home offices and schools, per sources.Commenting on the current market conditions, NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke reportedly said that, “Builder sentiment has been gradually cooling since the HMI hit an all-time high reading of 90 last November. The September data show stability as some building material cost challenges ease, particularly for softwood lumber. However, delivery times remain extended and the chronic construction labor shortage is expected to persist as the overall labor market recovers.”Housing ETFs That Might GainAgainst such a backdrop, here are a few housing ETFs that might gain on slight improvement in the housing sector scenario:iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ITBThis fund provides exposure to U.S. companies that manufacture residential homes by tracking the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index. With AUM of $2.40 billion, it holds a basket of 46 stocks, heavily focused on the top two firms. The product charges 41 basis points (bps) in annual fees (read: Forget Bubble Fear: Bet on Housing ETFs).SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF XHBA popular choice in the homebuilding space, XHB, follows the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index. The fund holds about 35 securities in its basket. It has AUM of $1.93 billion. The fund charges 35 bps in annual fees.Invesco Dynamic Building & Construction ETF PKB  This fund follows the Dynamic Building & Construction Intellidex Index, holding a basket of well-diversified 32 stocks, each accounting for less than a 5.35% share. It has amassed assets worth $281.7 million. The expense ratio is 0.59%.Hoya Capital Housing ETF HOMZThe fund seeks to provide investment results that before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the Hoya Capital Housing 100 Index, a rules-based Index designed to track the 100 companies that collectively represents the performance of the U.S. housing Industry. It has AUM of $80.1 million. The fund charges 30 bps in annual fees (see all the Materials ETFs here). 5 Stocks Set to Double Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2021. Previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%. Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB): ETF Research Reports iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB): ETF Research Reports Invesco Dynamic Building & Construction ETF (PKB): ETF Research Reports Hoya Capital Housing ETF (HOMZ): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 21st, 2021

What Investors Should Expect From KB Home (KBH) Q3 Earnings

KB Home's (KBH) fiscal Q3 results are likely to benefit from higher deliveries and pricing. KB Home KBH is slated to report third-quarter fiscal 2020 results (ended Aug 31) on Sep 22, after market close.In the last reported quarter, its earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 16.3% and grew 173% from the year-ago period. The company's earnings topped analysts’ expectations in 21 of the trailing 22 quarters. Its top line also topped the consensus mark by 2.3% and improved 57.7% year over year.Trend in Estimate RevisionFor the quarter to be reported, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has been unchanged over the past 30 days at $1.60 per share. This indicates a 92.8% increase from the year-ago earnings of 83 cents per share. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.56 billion, suggesting a rise of 56.2% from the prior-year quarter.KB Home Price and EPS Surprise KB Home price-eps-surprise | KB Home QuoteFactors at PlayRevenues: KB Home is expected to have generated increased housing revenues in the fiscal third quarter from the year-ago level on the back of higher deliveries, as lower borrowing costs, improved economy, more governmental stimulus and vaccination drive have been encouraging buyers.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s Homebuilding revenues — including housing and land — is pegged at $1,557 million, which indicates an increase of 56.5% from the year-ago period. Within Homebuilding, the consensus mark for housing revenues is $1,555 million, indicating a rise of 58.8% from the prior-year period. The same for land revenues is pegged at $2.25 million, indicating a decline from $16 million a year ago.Also, higher pricing will be a major contributing factor. The consensus estimate for average selling price (ASP) is $421,000, indicating growth from $385,000 reported a year ago. For the quarter, the company expects ASP of $420,000, indicating an increase from $384,700 reported a year ago.The consensus estimate for homes delivered is pegged at 3,712 units, suggesting growth of 45.9% from the year-ago level. It expects housing revenues in the range of $1.5-$1.58 billion, indicating an increase from $995.1 million a year ago.Backlogs & Orders: The company’s solid backlog level, which is a key indicator of significant growth opportunities, bodes well. The same for backlog is 10,135 units, implying notable growth from 6,749 units reported in the prior year.The consensus estimate for new orders is currently pegged at 3,813 units, suggesting a 9.5% year-over-year decline.Margins: Higher average sales and strong demand are likely to have expanded margins in the to-be-reported quarter. Although higher material and labor costs are likely to have put pressure on the bottom line, its initiatives like Returns-Focused Growth Plan, Built-to-Order approach, and aggressive investments in land acquisition as well as development are likely to have somewhat offset those headwinds.The company expects homebuilding operating income margin (excluding the impact of any inventory-related charges) to improve 11.7-12.1% for the quarter, suggesting an increase from 9.6% a year ago. Assuming no inventory-related charges, KB Home expects a sequential increase in fiscal third-quarter housing gross margin to 21.7% and a further improvement in the same in the fourth quarter. SG&A expense ratio will be approximately 9.8%.What Our Model IndicatesOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for KB Home this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you will see below.Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.12%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: Currently, KB Home carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Stocks With Favorable CombinationHere are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which according to our model have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their respective quarters to be reported.Aspen Aerogels, Inc. ASPN has an Earnings ESP of +2.60% and holds a Zacks Rank #3.Quanta Services, Inc. PWR has an Earnings ESP of +3.55% and a Zacks Rank #2.ChampionX Corporation CHX has an Earnings ESP of +6.74% and a Zacks Rank #3. Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple-Digit Profit Potential The biotech sector is projected to surge beyond $2.4 trillion by 2028 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases. They’re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases. Zacks has just released Century of Biology: 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance. Recommendations from previous editions of this report have produced gains of +205%, +258% and +477%. The stocks in this report could perform even better.See these 7 breakthrough stocks now>>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR): Free Stock Analysis Report KB Home (KBH): Free Stock Analysis Report Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN): Free Stock Analysis Report ChampionX Corporation (CHX): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 21st, 2021

Is This the Right Time to Buy Steel Stocks?

Steel stocks are particularly well-positioned right now. The steel industry, like many others this year, has seen significant pressures from the pandemic-driven supply chain constraints. But certain interesting things are happening now.But before we get to that, I want to give you some perspective.So the main ingredient in steel, as most of us probably know is iron ore. And there are four main regions producing this, i.e. Australia (around 37% share in 2020), Brazil (around 16%), China (around 14%) and India (around 9%). Since these countries have the greatest output, any disruption/overproduction by them has a significant impact on the market.All of last year, when the world was reeling under the impact of the pandemic, iron ore production in Brazil, which also had a dam burst, was severely impacted. Australia largely filled in the gap. Production out of Brazil is coming back this year with the country shipping 12% more than what it did last year.The iron ore shortage sent prices soaring 34% to their peak on Jul 19, 2021, even though Brazil has started coming back. And since then, prices have plunged around 44%.Now what happened in between is an inventory glut in China, which may be attributed to a number of factors. China, which produces more than half the world’s steel, has decided to cut production of the commodity to curb carbon emissions (China’s steel industry accounts for 10-20% of its carbon emissions). It has reportedly asked 20 steel mills in Tangshan city to suspend operations for a week. The provinces of Handan, Anhui, Gansu, Fujian, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Shandong and Yunnan were ordered to maintain production at 2020 levels.Broader and longer restrictions could be likely, as the Beijing Winter Olympics is around the corner (for a couple of weeks starting Feb 4). And China could very well reduce production until that is done. It does appear to be managing the situation, since it has raised tariffs on export of steel-related products despite reduced demand from the ongoing housing slump (home sales dropped 20%, according to Bloomberg). A Wood Mackenzie report quoted by CNBC says that first half 2021 crude steel production in China increased 12% from last year. So between increased first half production, declining demand and export restrictions, China will probably be able to keep the lid on production until the Winter Games are through.But this means that iron ore stocks are building up both within China and outside, which is leading to slumping prices.With restrictions on Chinese steel exports and increased demand for housing and infrastructure within the U.S., domestic steel makers are increasing production. Steel production within the U.S. increased around 16% in the first six months of 2021, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute. The production for the week ending Jul 3, 2021 is 41% higher than in the comparable week last year. The Great Lakes region is currently stronger than the southern and midwestern regions, comprising smaller players.Increased production means stronger utilization rates, which the American Iron and Steel Institute says had risen to 83% in the week ending Jul 3, compared to 58.3% a year ago.Given the strong demand and limited supply, steel makers are seeing robust pricing. BLS data shows for example that cold rolled steel sheet and strip prices have been rising steadily over the past year.So currently, demand is very high, prices are very high, utilization rates and production are on the rise while raw material cost is on a decline. These factors should lead to strong profitability for steel makers, which makes them attractive investment options.Within the Zacks universe, two steel-related industries are looking good at this point. The Steel – Producers industry (top 7% of 250+ Zacks-classified industries), is housed within the Basic Materials sector while the Steel – Pipe and Tube industry (top 4%) is housed within the Industrial Products sector. Both industries are trading well below the S&P 500 as well as their median valuations over the past year. So they are attractive at these valuations.Now let’s take a look at some stocks-A common theme in these stocks is very robust estimate revisions for both the current and following fiscal years. And that’s indicative of above-market growth, since estimate revisions in most industries have started moderating as analysts get a better grip of the COVID disruption.  Zacks #1 (Strong Buy) ranked Valmont Industries, Inc. VMI for instance had its 2021 estimates rising 83 cents (8.3%) and 2022 estimates rising 82 cents (7.2%) since it reported strong June quarter results. The company is expected to grow its revenue and earnings by a respective 18.5% and 32.0% this year. That will be followed by 7.3% revenue growth and 13.3% earnings growth in the following year.After reporting robust June quarter earnings, #1 ranked Tenaris S.A. TS saw its 2021 and 2022 earnings estimates jump 36 cents and 30 cents, respectively. But estimates for both years have continued to increase since then by an additional 6 cents and 5 cents, representing total increases of 50.6% and 30.7%, respectively. Analysts expect revenue and earnings to increase 17.9% and 495.2% in 2021. In 2022, they’re looking for revenues to increase 21.6% and earnings to increase 18.9%.#1 ranked Nucor Corp. NUE has steadily rising estimates. But in the last seven days alone, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2021 earnings jumped 98 cents (5.1%) and for 2022 earnings jumped $1.30 (11.9%). 2022 revenue and earnings still represent a decline from the 75.5% revenue growth and 508.1% earnings growth that analysts are expecting in 2021.Ternium S.A. TX has a solid history of beating estimates. The #1 ranked company, which is expected to grow its revenue by 77.9% and earnings by 460.6% this year, saw huge estimate increases over the last 30 days. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2021 is up $1.05 (6.6%) and that for 2022 is up $2.07 (22.5%).#1 ranked ArcelorMittal MT also reported strong June quarter results, beating estimates by the customary big margin. The company’s estimates have been rising steadily over the last 90 days. The 2021 estimate is up $4.71 (57.5%) during this time. The 2022 estimate is up $4.34 (85.4%). Analysts currently expect revenue and earnings to grow a respective 43.7% and 1775.3% in 2021, dropping off the following year. Year-to-Date Price PerformanceImage Source: Zacks Investment Research Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple-Digit Profit Potential The biotech sector is projected to surge beyond $2.4 trillion by 2028 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases. They’re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases. Zacks has just released Century of Biology: 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance. Recommendations from previous editions of this report have produced gains of +205%, +258% and +477%. The stocks in this report could perform even better.See these 7 breakthrough stocks now>>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report ArcelorMittal (MT): Free Stock Analysis Report Nucor Corporation (NUE): Free Stock Analysis Report Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI): Free Stock Analysis Report Ternium S.A. (TX): Free Stock Analysis Report Tenaris S.A. (TS): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 21st, 2021

Toll Brothers profit, sales rise on housing demand

Toll Brothers Inc. reported higher second-quarter sales as demand for homes continued to outstrip supply......»»

Category: topSource: foxnewsMay 26th, 2021

Morgan Stanley: We Are Approaching An Inflection Point In China Policy Easing

Morgan Stanley: We Are Approaching An Inflection Point In China Policy Easing By Chetan Ahya, Chief Economist and Global Head of Economics at Morgan Stanley The past two months have seen successive waves of headlines from China, first on the broad regulatory reset and then this week’s focus on property developers facing near-term funding pressures. The policy goals of these measures are first to ensure social stability and second to make economic growth more sustainable by reducing income inequality and addressing imbalances and excesses. However, they have raised concerns about a potential rise in systemic risks and a sharper slowdown in growth. Investors’ focus has shifted from tech to the property sector, which faces challenges on two fronts. First, property developers are required to adhere to the “three red lines” – maintaining healthy liabilities-to-assets, net gearing and cash-to-short-term debt ratios – which were announced in August 2020. What we are experiencing now is a direct effect of that regulatory action, which aimed to reduce systemic risks with benchmarks to curb excessive property sector borrowing. In addition, property demand in China has slowed in the last two months, as the front-loading of mortgage lending quotas in the first half of the year has weighed on property sales, increasing headwinds for property developers. As things stand, most property developers are on track to comply with the three red lines, but a number face challenges in meeting the mandated ratios. Our China property analyst estimates that the total debt exposure of property developers is around Rmb 18.4 trillion, which is now similar to annual sales. This indicates that leverage in aggregate is manageable – hence, so is the deleveraging process. Nonetheless, the pressure to reduce leverage means that defaults in China's property sector are likely to increase. From past experience, policy-makers have mechanisms in place to prevent systemic risks. For instance, debt restructuring will take place at the holding company level of property developers in default, while operating companies remain in business and construction projects move forward. Credit committees will oversee this process, with representation from the financial regulators, the central bank and local governments. Vis-à-vis the banking system, the property risk exposure of China's banks appears manageable. Development loans totaled 6.9% of banks' total loan balances, and individual developers' loan balances are limited to 0.3% of banks' total loan balance or less. NPL formation has also dropped to multi-year lows in 1H21. In addition, the risks related to peer-to-peer consumer loans and shadow banking credits have largely been addressed over the last three years. Hence, our China financials analyst sees ample room for the domestic banking system to deal with property sector risks this year. The exposure of global investors to the China property sector as holders of the debt or global banks as lenders to the sector is relatively small, which reduces the potential for global systemic risks. While we expect the restructuring process and immediate spillovers to the financial system to be orderly, we are mindful of potential knock-on effects in the broader economy. Although inventory levels are low, the economy will see some downside pressure from weaker housing starts in the near term. The property and adjacent sectors – residential property investment, related services and downstream goods consumption – account for ~15% of China’s GDP. Our chief China economist Robin Xing estimates that a 10pp slowdown in residential property activity could exert a ~1pp drag on GDP growth. Further spillovers could take the form of a negative wealth effect: reduced private consumption, the decline in property investment weighing on fixed asset investment in other upstream manufacturing sectors, and the impact on property sector employment exacerbating weaker consumption. These spillover effects are creating downward pressure on growth at the same time that production cuts to meet energy intensity targets are weighing on growth, the regulatory reset is weighing on corporate sentiment and consumption is softening because of intermittent Covid-related restrictions. We therefore see a risk that spillovers from the property sector would keep 4Q21 growth below 5% on a 2Y CAGR basis. This is a low starting point relative to next year’s growth target of 5.5%. Moreover, a sharper growth slowdown could increase the risk of a material impact on the labour market, which would run counter to the policy objective of ensuring social stability. It is in this context that we expect policy-makers to manage the process and pace of adjustment while providing meaningful countercyclical easing, just as they did in 2H15, 4Q18 and 2H19. Indeed, we think that we are approaching an inflection point in policy easing. Further measures in the pipeline include: faster fiscal spending to support infrastructure projects in September-December; another 50bp RRR cut in mid-to-late October; some easing of mortgage quotas and fine-tuning of production cuts to meet energy intensity targets in 4Q21; and front-loading of loan quotas and local government special bonds in January-February 2022. In the coming weeks, we will be watching for (1) communication from policy-makers on the details of the restructuring plan for property developers, and (2) policy easing signals and announcements. Tyler Durden Sun, 09/26/2021 - 22:00.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nyt4 hr. 13 min. ago

Rite Aid (RAD) Q2 Loss Narrower Than Expected, Revenues Miss

Despite high costs, Rite Aid's (RAD) fiscal second-quarter results have been aided by increased demand as well as strength in Elixir and the Retail Pharmacy unit. Rite Aid Corporation RAD posted second-quarter fiscal 2022 results, wherein adjusted loss was slightly narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while sales lagged the same. Continued strength in its underlying business, accelerated COVID-19 vaccine program, solid performance at Elixir, and enhanced retail and digital experiences aided the quarterly results. The company remains committed to providing lower healthcare costs, better customer engagement and personalized services.However, shares of this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock fell more than 6% on Sep 23. In the past three months, shares of the company have lost 13.2% compared with the industry’s 2.4% decline.Q2 in DetailThe company delivered an adjusted loss of 41 cents per share against adjusted earnings of 25 cents in the prior-year quarter. However, the figure was slightly narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 42 cents.Revenues grew 2.2% to $6,113 million but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6,246 million. The uptick was mainly due to the solid performance in the Retail Pharmacy, which more than offset the sluggishness in the Pharmacy Services segment.In the quarter, the Retail Pharmacy segment’s revenues grew 6.5%, driven by gains from the acquisition of Bartell and same-store sales growth. Retail Pharmacy same-store sales were up 2.6%, driven by a 5% rise in pharmacy sales, which offset a 2.8% decline in front-end same-store sales. Excluding cigarettes and tobacco products, front-end same-store sales decreased 2.4%. However, the metric rose 3% on a two-year stack basis, owing to a recovery in core categories, including vitamins, color cosmetics and baby care.Prescription count at same-store sales, adjusted to 30-day equivalents, rose 7.1% on the back of COVID-19 vaccinations, higher acute prescriptions (up 1.5%) and maintenance prescriptions (up 2.4%).In the Pharmacy Services segment, revenues fell 6.9% due to lower memberships in the PBM business and reduced Elixir Insurance membership.Online revenues skyrocketed 183% year over year in the quarter under review on the back of continued strength in on-demand delivery, third-party marketplaces, and buy online, pick up at store options. Management partnered with Shipt for same-day delivery of non-prescription products in the quarter under review. The company also revealed plans to launch a curbside service by October.In the reported quarter, adjusted EBITDA declined nearly 30% year over year to $106.2 million. This is mainly due to higher SG&A expenses, costs related to the Bartell acquisition, and other costs incurred to drive COVID-19 vaccines, which partly offset the rise in gross profit and higher prescription volume in the Retail Pharmacy segment. The adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 80 bps to 1.7% in the quarter under review. SG&A expenses grew 13.6% year over year to $1,267.8 million. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Financial StatusRite Aid ended the reported quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $146.6 million, long-term debt (net of current maturities) of $3,114.4 million, and total shareholders’ equity of $505.3 million. Capital expenditure is likely to be $300 million in fiscal 2022. Rite Aid also boasts strong liquidity of $1.7 billion.Fiscal 2022 OutlookDriven by the rising demand for COVID-19 vaccine and testing, management lifted its adjusted EBITDA view for fiscal 2022. Adjusted EBITDA is likely to be $460-$500 million, up from the earlier mentioned $440-$480 million.For fiscal 2022, the company expects sales of $25.1-$25.5 billion, with pharmacy services segment sales of $7.7-$7.8 million. Adjusted net loss is envisioned to be 90-53 cents, which compared unfavorably with the previously mentioned loss of 79-24 cents.Business DevelopmentsManagement administered 2.5 million COVID-19 vaccines in the reported quarter, driven by continued and rising customer demand. It also witnessed higher COVID-19 testing demand. The company remains on track with plans to invest in its online scheduling platform, which will allow customers to schedule appointments for COVID-19, flu and other vaccines. Rite Aid also noted that it completed the refreshed packaging and brand design of Pawtown, which is part of its pet unit, along with the redesign of its new baby brand, both of which are likely to be launched this fall.Rite Aid Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise  Rite Aid Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Rite Aid Corporation QuoteBetter-Ranked Stocks in the Retail SpaceAbercrombie & Fitch ANF presently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). It has an expected long-term earnings growth rate of 18%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The Children’s Place PLCE has a long-term expected earnings growth rate of 8% and it currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1.Foot Locker FL, a Zacks Rank #1 stock at present, has an expected long-term earnings growth rate of 4%. Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Rite Aid Corporation (RAD): Free Stock Analysis Report Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF): Free Stock Analysis Report Foot Locker, Inc. (FL): Free Stock Analysis Report The Childrens Place, Inc. (PLCE): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

Why Is Phibro (PAHC) Down 6.1% Since Last Earnings Report?

Phibro (PAHC) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues. It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Phibro Animal Health (PAHC). Shares have lost about 6.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Phibro due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. Phibro Q4 Earnings Match Estimates, Margins DownPhibro adjusted earnings per share of 32 cents in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021 reflected a rise of 88.2% from the year-ago adjusted figure. The metric was in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 32 centsMeanwhile, without adjustments, GAAP earnings per share for the fourth quarter was 42 cents, showing 200% surge from the year-ago count.For fiscal 2021, adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.34, up 61% from the year-ago figure.Net SalesIn the quarter under review, net sales totaled $220.3 million compared with the year-ago net sales of $185.9 million. The increase is primarily due to improvement in the Animal Health, Performance Products and Mineral Nutrition segments.For 2021, net sales totaled $833.4 million, up 4.1% from the year-ago tally.Segmental Sales Break-UpDuring the fiscal fourth quarter, Animal Health net sales increased 20% to $146.7 million. Within this segment, sales of medicated feed additives (MFAs) and other were $18.6 million, reflecting 26% year-over-year growth, driven by higher domestic and international demand, primarily due to a level of recovery from the global pandemic. Within Animal Health, nutritional specialty product sales rose 18% to $36.8 million, primarily on international volume growth in dairy products.Apart from this, net vaccine sales totaled $18.7 million, showing a rise of 1% year over year as domestic volume growth and increased demand in the Asia Pacific region were partially offset by challenging economic conditions in Eastern Europe.Net sales at the Mineral Nutrition segment rose 14% year over year to $56.8 million on higher average selling prices.Net sales at the Performance Products segment rose 23% to $16.7 million, driven by strong demand for copper-based products along with favorable product pricing related to underlying raw material costs.MarginsPhibro’s fourth-quarter gross profit rose 15.2% year over year to $69.8 million. Gross margin contracted 91 basis points (bps) to 31.7%.Selling, general and administrative expenses in the reported quarter were $50.7 million, up 19.6% from the year-ago quarter.Operating profit rose 4.9% year over year to $19.1 million and operating margin contracted 112 bps to 8.7% in the quarter under review.Financial UpdateThe company exited the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021 with cash and short-term investments in hand of $93 million compared with $91 million at the end of fourth-quarter 2020.Year to date, cumulative net cash provided by operating activities at the end of the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021 was $48.3 million compared with $59.3 million a year ago.Cumulative capital expenditure amounted to $29.3 million at the end of the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021, reflecting a decrease from the year-ago $34 million.OutlookPhibro has provided the fiscal 2022 financial guidance on improving business trends.The company projects net sales for the fiscal 2022 in range of $840-$870 million.Adjusted earnings per share is projected in band of $1.25-$1.32. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $1.33.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?Analysts were quiet during the last two month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions. Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Phibro Animal Health Corporation (PAHC): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

NIKE (NKE) Q1 Earnings Beat, Sales Miss on Supply Constraints

NIKE (NKE) reports mixed Q2 results on strong NIKE Direct revenues, improved traffic and robust digital momentum, offset by the global supply-chain woes, and factory closures in Vietnam and Indonesia. NIKE Inc. NKE posts mixed first-quarter fiscal 2022 results amid supply-chain disruptions. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while sales lagged estimates. However, revenues and earnings improved year over year on strong NIKE Direct revenues, led by the return of traffic to stores as well as continued digital momentum. Its product innovation, brand strength and scale of operations continued to drive digital sales growth.Shares of the company declined 3.9% after the close of the trading session on Sep 23. The negative investor sentiment can be attributed to the company’s commentary on its position amid supply-chain woes and the closure of factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, and the consequent lowering of the fiscal 2022 guidance.Overall, shares of this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company have gained 2.8% in the past three months compared with the industry’s 1.6% growth.NIKE, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise  NIKE, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | NIKE, Inc. QuoteQ1 HighlightsIn the reported quarter, the company’s earnings per share of $1.16 increased 22% from 95 cents reported in the year-ago quarter and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of $1.12.Revenues of the Swoosh brand owner grew 16% year over year to $12,248 million but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12,539.5 million. On a currency-neutral basis, revenues improved 12% year over year, driven by growth across all channels, led by growth at NIKE Direct.Sales at NIKE Direct were $4.7 billion, up 28% on a reported basis and 25% on a currency-neutral basis. The NIKE Direct business benefited from steady normalization of the owned retail business and continued momentum in the digital business. Revenues at owned stores improved 24%, which was above the pre-pandemic levels recorded in first-quarter fiscal 2020. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The company continued to witness robust revenue growth at the NIKE Brand’s Digital business despite the reopening of stores. Digital revenues for the NIKE Brand were up 29% year over year on a reported basis. On a constant-currency basis, Digital sales improved 25%, led by 43% growth in North America.However, Wholesale revenues increased 5%, owing to the impacts of lower availability inventory supplies, thanks to the worsening delays in transit.Operating SegmentsThe NIKE Brand Revenues were $11,640 million, up 16% year over year on a reported basis. Revenues for the brand increased 12% on a constant-dollar basis primarily due to the NIKE Direct business’ double-digit growth in North America, APLA and EMEA.Within the NIKE Brand, revenues in North America advanced 15% on both reported and currency-neutral basis to $4,879 million. This marked the fifth consecutive season of the incredible demand for NIKE products, fueled by the back-to-school sale and return of sports activity. North America revenues benefited from double-digit growth in the Performance business in the Fall season, led by running, fitness and basketball. This growth was also influenced by the Olympics fervor, the WNBA season and the NBA finals.Sales for the NIKE Direct business were up more than 45% in the region, accounting for 26% business share. Digital sales grew 40%, driven by market share growth on strong site traffic and repeated buying from members. Sales at NIKE-owned stores accelerated more than 50% due to the return of traffic to physical stores and enhanced experiences.However, the North America business witnessed headwinds from highly elevated in-transit inventory levels due to the deterioration of transit times in North America in the last reported quarter. The transit time has now almost doubled from the pre-pandemic levels, affecting product availability across the market and its ability to serve consumer demand, particularly in the Wholesale channel. NIKE-owned inventory rose 12% year over year. Closeout inventory levels declined in double-digits from the year-ago quarter.In EMEA, the company’s revenues rose 14% on a reported basis and 8% on a currency-neutral basis to $3,307 million. Growth was driven by the EURO this summer, with NIKE players scoring higher goals than all other brands combined. The company’s Mercurial boots accounted for more than half of these goals, resulting in higher demand for the Mercurial boot and replica jerseys during the tournament.The NIKE Direct business improved 10% on a currency-neutral basis, driven by growth at NIKE stores. Traffic at EMEA stores increased year over year in double-digits coupled with better-than-anticipated conversions. NIKE Digital was up 2%. Demand for full-priced products rose 30% from last year’s higher liquidation levels. NIKE-owned inventory fell 14% in EMEA, while closeout inventory declined in double-digits. The decline is attributed to the further deterioration of transit times in EMEA in the last 90 days, leading to higher in-transit inventory and affecting the product availability to meet demand.In Greater China, revenues increased 11% year over year on a reported basis and 1% on a currency-neutral basis in the fiscal fourth quarter to $1,982 million. Revenues improved in line with an expected recovery in the market. Retail sales in late July and August were impacted by regional closures and lower foot traffic due to COVID-19 infections in the region. Prior to late July, the company witnessed recovery in traffic at physical stores, with traffic levels coming close to the prior-year levels. NIKE Direct declined 3% in the fiscal first quarter partly due to the closure of NIKE-owned stores. NIKE Digital declined 6% compared with the higher liquidation in the prior year. This was partly negated by double-digit growth in full-price sales.In APLA, NIKE revenues advanced 33% on a reported basis and 31% on a currency-neutral basis to $1,465 million. Revenues were aided by growth across all regions, led by Japan, SOKO, Korea and Mexico, offset by muted growth in the Pacific and Southeast Asia, and India due to COVID restrictions. NIKE Digital rose more than 60% on a currency-neutral basis due to the expansion of the NIKE App.Revenues at the Converse brand improved 12% on a reported basis to $629 million. On a currency-neutral basis, revenues of the segment were up 7%, backed by strong Direct-to-consumer revenues in North America and Europe.Costs & MarginsThe gross profit advanced 20% year over year to $5,696 million, while the gross margin expanded 170 basis points (bps) to 46.5%. Gross margin growth can be attributed to improved NIKE Direct margins, driven by higher full-price sales mix and favorable currency rates, offset by escalated product costs, owing to increased ocean freight costs.Selling and administrative expenses rose 20% to $3,572 million, driven by higher operating overhead and demand-creating expenses. As a percentage of sales, SG&A expenses increased 110 bps to 29.2% from the prior-year quarter.Demand-creation expenses increased 36% year over year to $918 million, owing to the normalization of spending at brand campaigns as the market laps the last year’s closures due to COVID-19, along with sustained investments in digital marketing to facilitate the rising digital demand.Operating overhead expenses were up 15% to $2.7 billion on higher wage-related expenses, increased technology investments to support digital transformation, and NIKE Direct variable costs.Balance Sheet & Shareholder-Friendly MovesNIKE ended first-quarter fiscal 2022 with cash and short-term investments of $13,695 million, up $4.2 billion from the last year. These included strong free cash flow generation, partly offset by cash dividends and share repurchases. It had long-term debt (excluding current maturities) of $9,415 million and shareholders’ equity of $14,343 million as of the end of the fiscal first quarter. As of Aug 31, 2021, inventories of $6,699 million were almost flat with the prior-year levels.In first-quarter fiscal 2022, the company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders, including dividend payouts of $435 million and share repurchases of $742 million. It completed share repurchases of 4.8 million shares under its $15-million program approved in June 2018 in the reported quarter. As of Aug 31, it repurchased 54.8 million shares for $5.4 billion under the aforesaid program.OutlookNIKE expects the consumer demand to remain at all times, driven by its strong customer connections and brand momentum. However, it remains uncertain regarding the global supply-chain headwinds that are looming in the industry. The supply-chain disruptions have been challenging for manufacturers and has significantly hampered the mobility of products across the globe. The company previously anticipated the delays in transit times to continue throughout fiscal 2022. The company notes that the transit times in North America and Europe have further deteriorated in the fiscal first quarter due to port and rail congestions, and labor shortages.In another development, the company is witnessed the sudden closure of manufacturing units of its factory partners in Vietnam and Indonesia due to COVID-related government mandates. Although the company stated that Indonesia is fully operational now, it expects the footwear factories in Vietnam to remain closed. The reopening and ramping up of the factories to full scale is likely to take time.Consequently, the company has lowered its fiscal 2022 guidance to reflect the impacts of 10-weeks of lost production in Vietnam since mid-July and expectations of the elevated transit times to remain consistent with the current levels.For fiscal 2022, the company anticipates revenue growth in the mid-single digits compared with low-double-digit growth mentioned earlier. Lowered sales are expected to result solely from the aforementioned supply-chain congestions. The company expects revenue growth to be flat to down in low-single digits, particularly in second-quarter fiscal 2022, owing to the impacts of the lost production due to factory closures and delayed delivery times for the holiday and spring seasons. The company expects the lost weeks of production and the longer transit times to result in short-term inventory shortages in the market over the next few quarters.The company expects all of its geographic regions to be impacted by the difficult dynamics. However, some geographies in Asia, with less in-transit inventory at the end of the fiscal first quarter, are likely to witness uneven impacts in the second quarter.For the rest of fiscal 2022, the company anticipates the strong market demand to exceed the available supplies. Nonetheless, it remains optimistic of the inventory supply availability to improve going into fiscal 2023.The gross margin is now estimated to expand 125 bps in fiscal 2022, which is at the low-end of previously mentioned 125-150 bps growth. This growth is likely to be driven by the continued shift to the higher-margin NIKE Direct business, sustained strong full-priced sales and price increases in the second half. This is expected to be partly offset by 100 bps of incremental transportation, logistics and airfreight costs to move inventory in the current environment. The company now expects lower foreign currency tailwinds on gross margin in fiscal 2022, estimated at 60 bps.For the fiscal second quarter, it expects gross margin to expand at a lower rate than fiscal 2022 due to higher planned airfreight investments for the holiday season.The company expects SG&A growth in the mid-to-high teens for fiscal 2022. Earlier, it expected SG&A growth to slightly surpass revenue growth. The rise in SG&A expenses is likely to be driven by spends related to sporting events and investments against its largest opportunities. The effective tax rate is estimated to be in the mid-teens.Despite the near-term challenges, the company stated that it remains on track to reach its long-term financial targets for fiscal 2025 outlined in fourth-quarter fiscal 2021.3 Better-Ranked Stocks to WatchSteven Madden, Ltd. SHOO has a long-term earnings growth rate of 15%. It currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Carter’s, Inc. CRI has a long-term earnings growth rate of 21.1% and it flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 at present.Wolverine World Wide, Inc. WWW has a long-term earnings growth rate of 10%. The company currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Time to Invest in Legal Marijuana If you’re looking for big gains, there couldn’t be a better time to get in on a young industry primed to skyrocket from $17.7 billion back in 2019 to an expected $73.6 billion by 2027. After a clean sweep of 6 election referendums in 5 states, pot is now legal in 36 states plus D.C. Federal legalization is expected soon and that could be a still greater bonanza for investors. Even before the latest wave of legalization, Zacks Investment Research has recommended pot stocks that have shot up as high as +285.9%. You’re invited to check out Zacks’ Marijuana Moneymakers: An Investor’s Guide. It features a timely Watch List of pot stocks and ETFs with exceptional growth potential.Today, Download Marijuana Moneymakers FREE >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report NIKE, Inc. (NKE): Free Stock Analysis Report Wolverine World Wide, Inc. (WWW): Free Stock Analysis Report Carters, Inc. (CRI): Free Stock Analysis Report Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 24th, 2021

The Gaming Stocks That Have Soared In Price In The Past Year

Below is a commentary from Money.co.uk’s personal finance expert, Salman Haqqi, on how to invest in gaming stocks. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Gaming Stocks That Have Soared In Price In The Past Year When the pandemic hit, many of us turned to video games to help pass the time and […] Below is a commentary from Money.co.uk’s personal finance expert, Salman Haqqi, on how to invest in gaming stocks. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Gaming Stocks That Have Soared In Price In The Past Year When the pandemic hit, many of us turned to video games to help pass the time and keep us entertained. Consequently, the gaming industry went from strength to strength, after a sharp rise in sales of video games and consoles. The Nintendo Switch, arguably the console of the pandemic after their breakout hit ‘Animal Crossing New Horizons’, saw operating profits skyrocket by 82%, declaring 2020 a record year for the company. Meanwhile, a PS5 was near impossible to get your hands on after its release in November 2020, at the height of the winter COVID wave. With a new generation of consoles, e-sports and virtual reality gaming in development - investing in the video game industry has never been more exciting. These are the top 19 gaming stocks that have seen a surge in stock price over the past 12 months Rank Ticker Company Name Stock Price (current) Stock Price  (12 months ago) % change 1 NASDAQ:AVID Avid Technology, Inc. 25.72 7.45 245.23% 2 NASDAQ:NCTY The9 Limited 15.89 5.25 202.67% 3 NASDAQ:SLGG Super League Gaming, Inc. 4.13 1.76 134.66% 4 NASDAQ:GMBL Esports Entertainment Group Inc 8.79 3.87 127.13% 5 NASDAQ:CRSR Corsair Gaming Inc 28.66 14.25 101.12% 6 NASDAQ:BILI Bilibili Inc - ADR 85.95 44.39 93.62% 7 NASDAQ:NGMS Neogames SARL 41.71 21.59 93.19% 8 NASDAQ:NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 228.43 119.13 91.75% 9 NASDAQ:HEAR Turtle Beach Corp 28.52 16.99 67.86% 10 NASDAQ:MSFT Microsoft Corporation 301.14 202.66 48.59% 11 NASDAQ:SCPL SciPlay Corp 18 12.34 45.87% 12 NASDAQ:AESE Allied Esports Entertainment Inc 2 1.43 39.86% 13 NASDAQ:AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. 109.92 78.69 39.69% 14 OTCMKTS:CCOEF CAPCOM CO., LTD. 30.44 24 26.83% 15 NASDAQ:EA Electronic Arts Inc. 146.6 124.3 17.94% 16 NYSE:RBLX Roblox Corp 82.87 72.15 14.86% 17 NASDAQ:AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. 3478.05 3149.84 10.42% 18 NASDAQ:ATVI Activision Blizzard, Inc. 81.18 76.18 6.56% 19 NASDAQ:ZNGA Zynga Inc 8.8 8.32 5.77% Activities To Watch Out For In The Gaming Market Salman Haqqi, personal finance expert at money.co.uk has commented one some of the activities to watch out for in the gaming market at the moment. “During the pandemic, we saw many gaming companies make huge profits after a surge in demand for video games. Nintendo was a prime example of this. “While existing names like EA and Capcom are seeing renewed and steady growth, it’s the up and comers and disruptors in the industry that may make a big change in the industry over the next year or so. UFL, a new free-for-all online football simulation, is hoping to rival the existing mammoths such as Fifa (EA) and PES. Produced by Strikerz Inc., it’s an indication of the disruption that faces the gaming industry in the near future. Esports brands such as Esports Entertainment Group continue to see rises in their stock price compared with September 2020. “However, as with every investment - putting money into gaming stock comes with it’s risks. Despite analysts and experts opinions, events such as the recent controversy with Activision Blizzard show that no stock is foolproof, and with every investment comes risk. “Additionally, flagship brands such as NVIDIA are seeing renewed confidence from investors, regaining the title of the world’s most valuable semiconductor company.” About Money.co.uk: Money.co.uk is a UK-based price comparison website launched in 2008. It compares financial products including credit cards, bank savings, and mortgages. Sources Methodology: The top 25 gaming stocks prices were figures collated from 8 September 2020 to 7 September 2021, through Yahoo & Google Finance. Nintendo profit figures Top game companies to invest in Updated on Sep 23, 2021, 12:46 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkSep 23rd, 2021

Nordstrom (JWN) Down 8.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

Nordstrom (JWN) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues. A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Nordstrom (JWN). Shares have lost about 8.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Nordstrom due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. Nordstrom Tops Earnings & Revenue Q2 Estimates, Ups ViewNordstrom reported impressive second-quarter fiscal 2021 results, wherein the top and bottom lines rose on a year-over-year basis. Results gained from solid demand, better inventory, stringent cost-cutting actions as well as improved sales trends in Nordstrom and Nordstrom Rack across regions and categories. Enhanced customer engagement, improved merchandise assortment and robust performance in the anniversary sale also contributed to quarterly growth. The company witnessed strength in shoes, apparel and accessories on a sequential basis with active, home and designer categories getting back to pre-pandemic level. Management lifted 2021 view.It remains focused on closer-to-you strategy which aims to link stores and services to expedite deliveries, expanding online offerings and adding cheaper merchandise at its Rack off-price stores, to improve customers shopping experience.Nordstrom posted adjusted earnings of 49 cents per share, which came ahead of the year-ago quarter’s loss of $1.62. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 26 cents.Total revenues surged 96.4% year over year to $3,657 million and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,382 million. The company’s revenues represented a 700-bps sequential improvement from the first quarter of fiscal 2021, marking the fourth straight quarter of sequential top-line growth. However, net sales skyrocketed 101% year over year to $3,565 million while the metric declined 6% from second-quarter fiscal 2019. Credit Card net revenues grew 9.5% to $92 million.The company witnessed sturdy sales in the Anniversary event, with 1% growth from second-quarter fiscal 2019. The uptick can be attributable to improved traffic and sales, both in stores and online, stemming from positive customer response, trendy products and expanded capabilities, including convenient pick-up options at Nordstrom and Nordstrom Rack stores. The final week of the event fell in third-quarter fiscal 2021, which adversely impacted the top line by roughly 200 basis points (bps) compared with second-quarter fiscal 2019.In second-quarter fiscal 2021, net sales for the Nordstrom brand skyrocketed 127% year over year to $2,417 million. Sales for the Nordstrom Rack brand rose 61% year over year to $1,148 million. Nordstrom’s sales improved 800 bps sequentially, whereas Nordstrom Rack sales rose 500 bps. However, sales for Nordstrom and Nordstrom Rack brands reflected declines of 5% and 8% from second-quarter fiscal 2019, respectively.Momentum in the digital business continued to aid the top line. Digital sales advanced 30% year over year and 24% from the second quarter of fiscal 2019. The digital business witnessed gains from improved traffic across both Nordstrom and Nordstrom Rack. In the fiscal second quarter, digital sales represented 40% of net sales compared with 61% in the year-ago quarter. The company also completed the integration of Rack.com onto Nordstrom.com, thus, offering a better customer experience.  Nordstrom's gross profit margin expanded 1,370 bps year over year to 35% in the reported quarter. This substantial growth resulted from lower markdowns and leverage from higher net sales. However, gross margin remained flat as compared with second-quarter fiscal 2019 as lower markdowns somewhat offset drab sales. Ending inventory grew 13% from second-quarter fiscal 2019, owing to the timing shift of the anniversary sale and efforts to improve the supply chain and advanced sales trends.Selling, general and administrative (“SG&A”) expenses, as a percentage of sales, declined 1,350 bps year over year to 33% in the fiscal second quarter. The SG&A decline was mainly driven by leverage on higher sales and the continued benefit of permanently reducing overhead costs by 15%. SG&A expenses also gained from the absence of $250 million in charges associated with the impacts of COVID-19 in fiscal 2020. However, SG&A expenses increased 170 bps from second-quarter fiscal 2019 due to higher COVID-related labor and freight costs.Earnings before interest and taxes (“EBIT”) of $151 million reflected significant growth from a loss of $370 million in the year-ago quarter. The increase was mainly the result of higher sales volume and expanded merchandise margins. EBIT declined by $65 million from second-quarter fiscal 2019 due to higher freight, labor costs and drab sales volume, offset by gains from the resetting of cost structures in 2020.Other FinancialsNordstrom ended second-quarter fiscal 2021 with a strong balance sheet. Available liquidity as of Jul 31, 2021, was $1.3 billion, including $487 million of cash and cash equivalents. It had long-term debt (net of current liabilities) of $2,849 million and total shareholders’ equity of $268 million. As of Jul 31, 2021, the company used $545 million of net cash for operating activities and spent $217 million as capital expenditure.Fiscal 2021 OutlookDriven by solid quarterly results, management raised the fiscal 2021 view. The company anticipates revenue growth of 35%, up from the earlier mentioned 25%. It expects an EBIT margin of 3-3.5% compared with the previously mentioned 3%. Nordstrom forecast sales improvement in the third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2021 on a sequential basis.EBIT margin is likely to rise further, with gross margin improvement in the fiscal fourth quarter, driven by better inventory management and lower promotions. SG&A costs are expected to be higher in the second half of fiscal 2021 due to higher freight and labor costs.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, fresh estimates flatlined during the past month.VGM ScoresCurrently, Nordstrom has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookNordstrom has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Toll Brothers (TOL) Down 5.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

Toll Brothers (TOL) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues. A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Toll Brothers (TOL). Shares have lost about 5.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Toll Brothers due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. Toll Brothers Q3 Earnings & Revenues Top, Margin UpToll Brothers, Inc. reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2021 (ended Jul 31, 2021) results. Both the top and bottom lines topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increased significantly on a year-over-year basis. The company has been benefiting from its strategy of broadening the product lines, price points and geographies.Douglas C. Yearley, Jr., chairman and chief executive officer, said, “Demand continues to be very strong. Net signed contracts were up 35% in dollars to approximately $3 billion compared to the prior year period. The housing market is being driven by many strong fundamentals, including low mortgage rates, favorable millennial-driven demographics, a decade of pent-up demand, low new home supply, and a tight resale market. We expect strong and sustainable demand for our homes in the years to come.”He continued, “Our record backlog, our focus on capital and operating efficiency, and the continued strength of the housing market give us confidence that our full FY 2022 margins will significantly exceed the strong margins we project for our FY 2021 fourth quarter and that our return on beginning equity will exceed 20% in FY 2022 and beyond.”On Aug, 24, 2021, Toll Brothers announced a strategic partnership with Equity Residential to selectively acquire and develop sites for new rental apartment communities in Metro Boston, MA; Atlanta, GA; Austin, TX; Denver, CO; Orange County/San Diego, CA; Seattle, WA, and Dallas-Fort Worth, TX.Earnings & Revenue DiscussionThe country’s leading luxury homebuilder reported earnings of $1.87 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.52 by 23%. Also, the said figure grew 74.4% from the year-ago figure of 90 cents per share as a result of higher revenues and margins.Revenues of $2.26 billion topped the consensus mark of $2.22 billion by 1.7% and increased 26.8% year over year, backed by solid demand during the quarter.Segment DetailToll Brothers operates under two reportable segments, namely Traditional Home Building and Urban Infill ("City Living").Revenues from Traditional Home Building totaled $2.15 billion, up 28.1% year over year, and that of City Living increased more than 594% to $184 million.Inside the Headline NumbersHome sales revenues grew 37% from the prior year to $2.23 billion. Homes delivered grew 28% year over year to 2,597 units. Deliveries increased in all regions served by the company. The average price of homes delivered was $806,600 for the quarter, up 1.7% from the year-ago level of $793,100.The number of net signed contracts for the reported quarter was 3,154 units, up 11% year over year. The value of net signed contracts was $2.98 billion, reflecting a rise of 35% from the year-ago quarter. These marked record third-quarter numbers.At fiscal third quarter-end, Toll Brothers had a backlog of 10,661 homes, representing a 47% year-over-year increase. Also, potential revenues from backlog improved 55% year over year to $9.44 billion. Backlog for the quarter, in both dollars and units, marked an all-time record high. The average price of homes in backlog totaled $885,200, up from $840,600 at the end of the comparable period of fiscal 2020.Cancellation rate for the reported quarter was 3.1% compared with 8% in the prior-year period.MarginsThe company’s home sales adjusted gross margin was 25.6%, expanding 170 basis points (bps) for the quarter.SG&A expenses — as a percentage of home sales revenues — were 10.5%, which decreased from 11.9% in the year-ago quarter.FinancialsToll Brothers had $946 million cash and cash equivalents as of Jul 31, 2021 compared with $1.37 billion at fiscal 2020-end. At fiscal third quarter-end, it had $1.79 billion available under the $1.905-billion bank revolving credit facility, scheduled to mature in November 2025.Total debt at fiscal third quarter-end was $3.59 billion, down from $3.96 billion at fiscal 2020-end. Debt to capital was 41.6% at fiscal third quarter-end versus 44.8% a year ago.During the quarter, the company repurchased nearly 1.7 million shares of its common stock at an average price of $57.66 per share for approximately $95.4 million.Fiscal Fourth-Quarter GuidanceToll Brothers expects home deliveries of 3,450 units (indicating an improvement from 2,940 units delivered in the prior-year quarter) at an average price of $840,000 (suggesting a rise from $805,000 a year ago).Adjusted home sales gross margin is now expected to be 25.6% (up from prior projection of 24.8), implying an increase from 21.9% in the year-ago period. SG&A expenses are estimated to be 9.8% of home sales revenues (pointing to fall from 9.9% a year ago). The projection has improved from prior expectation of 11.6%. The company expects effective tax rate to be 26%.Fiscal 2021 GuidanceFor full-year fiscal 2021, home deliveries are now anticipated to be 10,100 units (indicating an improvement from 8,496 units reported in fiscal 2020) at an average price of $830,000. Average price in the year-ago quarter was $816,500.Toll Brothers expects adjusted home sales gross margin of 24.9% (reflecting a marginal increase from 24.6% projected earlier). The current projection implies growth from 23.5% recorded in the year-ago period. SG&A expenses, as a percentage of home sales revenues, for full-year fiscal 2021 are projected to be 11.3% (suggesting fall from 12.5% in fiscal 2020). The current estimate reflects a decrease from the prior projection of 11.8%.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 5.27% due to these changes.VGM ScoresAt this time, Toll Brothers has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Toll Brothers has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

CVS Health (CVS) Retail Business Grows Despite Cost Pressure

CVS Health's (CVS) retail business sees solid rebound in front-store sales with strength across all categories. Increasing demand for Pharmacy Benefit Management (PBM) and specialty pharmacy along with strong digitization of business is a key driver of CVS Health’s CVS persistent growth amid the pandemic-induced challenges. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).Over the past year, CVS Health has outperformed its industry. The stock has gained 46.2% compared with the 40.8% rise of the industry.CVS Health's second-quarter earnings and revenues surpassed the respective Zacks Consensus Estimate. Revenues across all the three operating segments improved in the quarter. Pharmacy services revenue growth of 9.8% outperformed the company’s expectations. Operating income also rose significantly. Specialty pharmacy revenues were up 8.9% year over year. The company added nearly 1 million new integrated pharmacy and medical members through the 2021 and 2022 selling seasons.Retail reported above-market growth also exceeded the company’s expectations. Prescription market share was over 26%. There was a solid rebound in front-store sales, which increased nearly 13% in the quarter, on strength across all categories. One-third of pharmacy script growth was attributable to COVID-19 vaccines.Healthcare benefits results were strong driven by growth in government business. While the medical benefit ratio of 84.1% was modestly above expectations due to COVID-related costs, underlying non-COVID costs dropped.CVS Health Corporation Price CVS Health Corporation price | CVS Health Corporation QuoteThe company noted that the consumer-centric digital strategy is more relevant in the current environment as people are using technology while staying indoors. In the second quarter, digital retail customers spent 2.5 times more in front store, managed 1.5 times more scripts, and continued to remain as customers longer than other pharmacy patients. Its increased full-year guidance indicates that this bullish trendis likely to continue through the rest of 2021.CVS Health continues to believe that aggregate medical costs will modestly exceed baseline levels during the second half of 2021. In addition to the strong performance in the core business, the company is benefiting from the broad and unique portfolio of assets with the first CVS-Aetna co-branded offerings.The company also announced that it will re-enter the public exchanges in 2022. CVS Health currently expects to enter up to eight states, where it expects to make a meaningful impact and maximize returns with this first-ever Aetna-CVS branded offerings.On the flip side, CVS Health’s second-quarter adjusted earnings declined year over year on escalating costs and expenses, which are putting pressure on both the margins. Total cost (including Benefit Cost) rose 14.3%. Gross profit fell 1.1%. Gross margin contracted 226 basis points (bps) to 18.2%. The operating margin in the quarter under review fell 121 bps to 5.9% on a 7.6% decline in operating profit.Further, within Retail/Long Term Care (LTC), the company is facing continued reimbursement pressure and the impact of recent generic introductions. A highly competitive landscape  poses stiff challenges to CVS Health.Key PicksA few better-ranked stocks from the Medical-Products industry are Envista Holdings Corporation NVST, VAREX IMAGING VREX, and BellRing Brands, Inc. BRBR.Envista Holdings, which carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), has a long-term earnings growth rate of 27.4%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.VAREX, carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), has a long-term earnings growth rate of 5%.BellRing Brands, with a Zacks Rank #2, has a long-term earnings growth rate of 29.1%. More Stock News: This Is Bigger than the iPhone! It could become the mother of all technological revolutions. Apple sold a mere 1 billion iPhones in 10 years but a new breakthrough is expected to generate more than 77 billion devices by 2025, creating a $1.3 trillion market. Zacks has just released a Special Report that spotlights this fast-emerging phenomenon and 4 tickers for taking advantage of it. If you don't buy now, you may kick yourself in 2022.Click here for the 4 trades >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report CVS Health Corporation (CVS): Free Stock Analysis Report VAREX IMAGING (VREX): Free Stock Analysis Report Envista Holdings Corporation (NVST): Free Stock Analysis Report BellRing Brands, Inc. (BRBR): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 23rd, 2021

Futures Rise On Taper, Evergrande Optimism

Futures Rise On Taper, Evergrande Optimism US index futures jumped overnight even as the Fed confirmed that a November tapering was now guaranteed and would be completed by mid-2022 with one rate hike now on deck, while maintaining the possibility to extend stimulus if necessitated by the economy. Sentiment got an additional boost from a strong showing of Evergrande stock - which closed up 17% - during the Chinese session, which peaked just after Bloomberg reported that China told Evergrande to avoid a near-term dollar bond default and which suggested that the "government wants to avoid an imminent collapse of the developer" however that quickly reversed when the WSJ reported, just one hour later, that China was making preparations for Evergrande's demise, and although that hammered stocks, the report explicitly noted that a worst-case scenario for Evergrande would mean a partial or full nationalization as "local-level government agencies and state-owned enterprises have been instructed to step in only at the last minute should Evergrande fail to manage its affairs in an orderly fashion." In other words, both reports are bullish: either foreign creditors are made whole (no default) as per BBG or the situation deteriorates and Evergrande is nationalized ("SOEs step in") as per WSJ. According to Bloomberg, confidence is building that markets can ride out a pullback in Fed stimulus, unlike 2013 when the taper tantrum triggered large losses in bonds and equities. "Investors are betting that the economic and profit recovery will be strong enough to outweigh a reduction in asset purchases, while ultra-low rates will continue to support riskier assets even as concerns linger about contagion from China’s real-estate woes." That's one view: the other is that the Fed has so broken the market's discounting ability we won't know just how bad tapering will get until it actually begins. “The Fed has got to be pleased that their communication on the longer way to tapering has avoided the dreaded fear of the tantrum,” Jeffrey Rosenberg, senior portfolio manager for systematic fixed income at BlackRock Inc., said on Bloomberg Television. “This is a very good outcome for the Fed in terms of signaling their intent to give the market information well ahead of the tapering decision.” Then there is the question of Evergrande: “With regards to Evergrande, all those people who are waiting for a Lehman moment in China will probably have to wait another turn,” said Ken Peng, an investment strategist at Citi Private Bank Asia Pacific. “So I wouldn’t treat this as completely bad, but there are definitely a lot of risks on the horizon.” In any case, today's action is a continuation of the best day in two months for both the Dow and the S&P which staged a strong recovery from two-month lows hit earlier in the week, and as of 745am ET, S&P 500 E-minis were up 25.25 points, or 0.6%, Dow E-minis were up 202 points, or 0.59%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 92.0 points, or 0.60%. In the premarket, electric vehicle startup Lucid Group rose 3.1% in U.S. premarket trading. PAVmed (PVM US) jumps 11% after its Lucid Diagnostics unit announced plans to list on the Global Market of the Nasdaq Stock Market.  Here are some of the biggest movers today: U.S.-listed Chinese stocks rise in premarket trading as fears of contagion from China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis ease. Blackberry (BB US) shares rise 8.7% in premarket after co.’s 2Q adjusted revenue beat the average of analysts’ estimates Eargo (EAR US) falls 57% in Thursday premarket after the hearing aid company revealed it was the target of a Justice Department criminal probe and withdrew its forecasts for the year Amplitude Healthcare Acquisition (AMHC US) doubled in U.S. premarket trading after the SPAC’s shareholders approved the previously announced business combination with Jasper Therapeutics Steelcase (SCS US) fell 4.8% Wednesday postmarket after the office products company reported revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate Vertex Energy Inc. (VTNR US) gained 2.1% premarket after saying the planned acquisition of a refinery in Mobile, Alabama from Royal DutVTNR US Equitych Shell Plc is on schedule Synlogic (SYBX US) shares declined 9.7% premarket after it launched a stock offering launched without disclosing a size HB Fuller (FUL US) climbed 2.7% in postmarket trading after third quarter sales beat even the highest analyst estimate Europe's Stoxx 600 index rose 0.9%, lifted by carmakers, tech stocks and utilities, which helped it recover losses sparked earlier in the week by concerns about Evergrande and China’s crackdown on its property sector. The gauge held its gain after surveys of purchasing managers showed business activity in the euro area lost momentum and slowed broadly in September after demand peaked over the summer and supply-chain bottlenecks hurt services and manufacturers. Euro Area Composite PMI (September, Flash): 56.1, consensus 58.5, last 59.0. Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (September, Flash): 58.7, consensus 60.3, last 61.4. Euro Area Services PMI (September, Flash): 56.3, consensus 58.5, last 59.0. Germany Composite PMI (September, Flash): 55.3, consensus 59.2, last 60.0. France Composite PMI (September, Flash): 55.1, consensus 55.7, last 55.9. UK Composite PMI (September, Flash): 54.1, consensus 54.6, last 54.8. Commenting on Europe's PMIs, Goldman said that the Euro area composite PMI declined by 2.9pt to 56.1 in September, well below consensus expectations. The softening was broad-based across countries but primarily led by Germany. The peripheral composite flash PMI also weakened significantly in September but remain very high by historical standards (-2.4pt to 57.5). Across sectors, the September composite decline was also broad-based, with manufacturing output softening (-3.3pt to 55.6) to a similar extent as services (-2.7pt to 56.3). Supply-side issues and upward cost and price pressures continued to be widely reported. Expectations of future output growth declined by less than spot output on the back of delta variant worries and supply issues, remaining far above historically average levels. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for the first time in four sessions, as Hong Kong helped lead a rally on hopes that troubled property firm China Evergrande Group will make progress on debt repayment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.5%, with Tencent and Meituan providing the biggest boosts. The Hang Seng jumped as much as 2.5%, led by real estate stocks as Evergrande surged more than 30%. Hong Kong shares later pared their gains. Asian markets were also cheered by gains in U.S. stocks overnight even as the Federal Reserve said it may begin scaling back stimulus this year. A $17 billion net liquidity injection from the People’s Bank of China also provided a lift, while the Fed and Bank of Japan downplayed Evergrande risks in comments accompanying policy decisions Wednesday. Evergrande’s stock closed 18% higher in Hong Kong, in a delayed reaction to news a unit of the developer had negotiated interest payments on yuan notes. A coupon payment on its 2022 dollar bond is due on Thursday “Investors are perhaps reassessing the tail risk of a disorderly fallout from Evergrande’s credit issues,” said Chetan Seth, a strategist at Nomura. “However, I am not sure if the fundamental issue around its sustainable deleveraging has been addressed. I suspect markets will likely remain quite volatile until we have some definite direction from authorities on the eventual resolution of Evergrande’s debt problems.” Stocks rose in most markets, with Australia, Taiwan, Singapore and India also among the day’s big winners. South Korea’s benchmark was the lone decliner, while Japan was closed for a holiday In rates, Treasuries were off session lows, with the 10Y trading a 1.34%, but remained under pressure in early U.S. session led by intermediate sectors, where 5Y yield touched highest since July 2. Wednesday’s dramatic yield-curve flattening move unleashed by Fed communications continued, compressing 5s30s spread to 93.8bp, lowest since May 2020. UK 10-year yield climbed 3.4bp to session high 0.833% following BOE rate decision (7-2 vote to keep bond-buying target unchanged); bunds outperformed slightly. Peripheral spreads tighten with long-end Italy outperforming. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed an earlier gain and dropped 0.3% as the dollar weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen amid a more positive sentiment. CAD, NOK and SEK are the strongest performers in G-10, JPY the laggard.  The euro and the pound briefly pared gains after weaker-than-forecast German and British PMIs. The pound rebounded from an eight-month low amid a return of global risk appetite as investors assessed whether the Bank of England will follow the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone later Thursday. The yield differential between 10-year German and Italian debt narrowed to its tightest since April. Norway’s krone advanced after Norges Bank raised its policy rate in line with expectations and signaled a faster pace of tightening over the coming years. The franc whipsawed as the Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate and deposit rate at record lows, as expected, and reiterated its pledge to wage currency market interventions. The yen fell as a unit of China Evergrande said it had reached an agreement with bond holders over an interest payment, reducing demand for haven assets. Turkey’s lira slumped toa record low against the dollar after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates. In commodities, crude futures drifted lower after a rangebound Asia session. WTI was 0.25% lower, trading near $72; Brent dips into the red, so far holding above $76. Spot gold adds $3.5, gentle reversing Asia’s losses to trade near $1,771/oz. Base metals are well bid with LME aluminum leading gains. Bitcoin steadied just below $44,000. Looking at the day ahead, we get the weekly initial jobless claims, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for August, and the Kansas City fed’s manufacturing activity index for September. From central banks, there’ll be a monetary policy decision from the Bank of England, while the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin and the ECB’s Elderson will also speak. From emerging markets, there’ll also be monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Finally in Germany, there’s an election debate with the lead candidates from the Bundestag parties. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 4,413.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 468.32 MXAP up 0.5% to 200.57 MXAPJ up 0.9% to 645.76 Nikkei down 0.7% to 29,639.40 Topix down 1.0% to 2,043.55 Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 24,510.98 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,642.22 Sensex up 1.4% to 59,728.37 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.0% to 7,370.22 Kospi down 0.4% to 3,127.58 German 10Y yield fell 5.6 bps to -0.306% Euro up 0.4% to $1.1728 Brent Futures up 0.3% to $76.39/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,768.25 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.33% to 93.16 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Financial regulators in Beijing issued a broad set of instructions to China Evergrande Group, telling the embattled developer to focus on completing unfinished properties and repaying individual investors while avoiding a near-term default on dollar bonds China’s central bank net-injected the most short- term liquidity in eight months into the financial system, with markets roiled by concerns over China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis Europe’s worst energy crisis in decades could drag deep into the cold months as Russia is unlikely to boost shipments until at least November Business activity in the euro area “markedly” lost momentum in September after demand peaked over the summer and supply chain bottlenecks hurt both services and manufacturers. Surveys of purchasing managers by IHS Markit showed growth in both sectors slowing more than expected, bringing overall activity to a five-month low. Input costs, meanwhile, surged to the highest in 21 years, according to the report The U.K. private sector had its weakest month since the height of the winter lockdown and inflation pressures escalated in September, adding to evidence that the recovery is running into significant headwinds, IHS Markit said The U.K.’s record- breaking debut green bond sale has given debt chief Robert Stheeman conviction on the benefits of an environmental borrowing program. The 10 billion-pound ($13.7 billion) deal this week was the biggest-ever ethical bond sale and the country is already planning another offering next month A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquaw Asian equity markets traded mostly positive as the region took its cue from the gains in US with the improved global sentiment spurred by some easing of Evergrande concerns and with stocks also unfazed by the marginally more hawkish than anticipated FOMC announcement (detailed above). ASX 200 (+1.0%) was underpinned by outperformance in the commodity-related sectors and strength in defensives, which have more than atoned for the losses in tech and financials, as well as helped markets overlook the record daily COVID-19 infections in Victoria state. Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) were also positive after another respectable liquidity operation by the PBoC and with some relief in Evergrande shares which saw early gains of more than 30% after recent reports suggested a potential restructuring by China’s government and with the Co. Chairman noting that the top priority is to help wealth investors redeem their products, although the majority of the Evergrande gains were then pared and unit China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle fully retraced the initial double-digit advances. KOSPI (-0.5%) was the laggard as it played catch up to the recent losses on its first trading day of the week and amid concerns that COVID cases could surge following the holiday period, while Japanese markets were closed in observance of the Autumnal Equinox Day. China Pumps $17 Billion Into System Amid Evergrande Concerns China Stocks From Property to Tech Jump on Evergrande Respite Philippines Holds Key Rate to Spur Growth Amid Higher Prices Taiwan’s Trade Deal Application Sets Up Showdown With China Top Asian News European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.9%) trade on the front-foot and have extended gains since the cash open with the Stoxx 600 now higher on the week after Monday’s heavy losses. From a macro perspective, price action in Europe has been undeterred by a slowdown in Eurozone PMIs which saw the composite metric slip to 56.1 from 59.0 (exp. 58.5) with IHS Markit noting “an unwelcome combination of sharply slower economic growth and steeply rising prices.” Instead, stocks in the region have taken the cue from a firmer US and Asia-Pac handover with performance in Chinese markets aided by further liquidity injections by the PBoC. Some positivity has also been observed on the Evergrande front amid mounting expectations of a potential restructuring at the company. That said, at the time of writing, it remains unclear what the company’s intentions are for repaying its USD 83.5mln onshore coupon payment. Note, ING highlights that “missing that payment today would still leave a 30-day grace period before this is registered as a default”. The most recent reports via WSJ indicate that Chinese authorities are asking local governments to begin preparations for the potential downfall of Evergrande; however, the article highlights that this is a last resort and Beijing is reluctant to step in. Nonetheless, this article has taken the shine off the mornings risk appetite, though we do remain firmer on the session. Stateside, as the dust settles on yesterday’s FOMC announcement, futures are firmer with outperformance in the RTY (+0.8% vs. ES +0.7%). Sectors in Europe are higher across the board with outperformance in Tech and Autos with the latter aided by gains in Faurecia (+4.6%) who sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 after making an unsurprising cut to its guidance, which will at least provide some clarity on the Co.’s near-term future; in sympathy, Valeo (+6.6) is also a notable gainer in the region. To the downside, Entain (+2.6%) sit at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after recent strong gains with the latest newsflow surrounding the Co. noting that MGM Resorts is considering different methods to acquire control of the BetMGM online gambling business JV, following the DraftKings offer for Entain, according to sources. The agreement between Entain and MGM gives MGM the ability to block any deal with competing businesses; MGM officials believe this grants the leverage to take full control of BetMGM without spending much. Top European News BOE Confronts Rising Prices, Slower Growth: Decision Guide La Banque Postale Eyes Retail, Asset Management M&A in Europe Activist Bluebell Raises Pressure on Glaxo CEO Walmsley Norway Delivers Rate Lift-Off With Next Hike Set for December In FX, not much bang for the Buck even though the FOMC matched the most hawkish market expectations and Fed chair Powell arguably went further by concluding in the post-meeting press conference that substantial progress on the lagging labour front is all but done. Hence, assuming the economy remains on course, tapering could start as soon as November and be completed my the middle of 2022, though he continued to play down tightening prospects irrespective of the more hawkish trajectory implied by the latest SEP dot plots that are now skewed towards at least one hike next year and a cumulative seven over the forecast horizon. However, the Greenback only managed to grind out marginally higher highs overnight, with the index reaching 93.526 vs 93.517 at best yesterday before retreating quite sharply and quickly to 93.138 in advance of jobless claims and Markit’s flash PMIs. CAD/NZD/AUD - The Loonie is leading the comeback charge in major circles and only partially assisted by WTI keeping a firm bid mostly beyond Usd 72/brl, and Usd/Cad may remain contained within 1.2796-50 ahead of Canadian retail sales given decent option expiry interest nearby and protecting the downside (1 bn between 1.2650-65 and 2.7 bn from 1.2620-00). Meanwhile, the Kiwi has secured a firmer grip on the 0.7000 handle to test 0.7050 pre-NZ trade and the Aussie is looking much more comfortable beyond 0.7250 amidst signs of improvement in the flash PMIs, albeit with the services and composite headline indices still some way short of the 50.0 mark. NOK/GBP/EUR/CHF - All firmer, and the Norwegian Crown outperforming following confirmation of the start of rate normalisation by the Norges Bank that also underscored another 25 bp hike in December and further tightening via a loftier rate path. Eur/Nok encountered some support around 10.1000 for a while, but is now below, while the Pound has rebounded against the Dollar and Euro in the run up to the BoE at midday. Cable is back up around 1.3770 and Eur/Gbp circa 0.8580 as Eur/Usd hovers in the low 1.1700 area eyeing multiple and a couple of huge option expiries (at the 1.1700 strike in 4.1 bn, 1.1730 in 1 bn, 1.1745-55 totalling 2.7 bn and 1.8 bn from 1.1790-1.1800). Note, Eurozone and UK flash PMIs did not live up to their name, but hardly impacted. Elsewhere, the Franc is lagging either side of 0.9250 vs the Buck and 1.0835 against the Euro on the back of a dovish SNB Quarterly Review that retained a high Chf valuation and necessity to maintain NIRP, with only minor change in the ordering of the language surrounding intervention. JPY - The Yen is struggling to keep its head afloat of 110.00 vs the Greenback as Treasury yields rebound and risk sentiment remains bullish pre-Japanese CPI and in thinner trading conditions due to the Autumn Equinox holiday. In commodities, WTI and Brent have been choppy throughout the morning in-spite of the broadly constructive risk appetite. Benchmarks spent much of the morning in proximity to the unchanged mark but the most recent Evergrande developments, via WSJ, have dampened sentiment and sent WTI and Brent back into negative territory for the session and printing incremental fresh lows at the time of publication. Back to crude, newsflow has once again centred around energy ministry commentary with Iraq making clear that oil exports will continue to increase. Elsewhere, gas remains at the forefront of focus particularly in the UK/Europe but developments today have been somewhat incremental. On the subject, Citi writes that Asia and Europe Nat. Gas prices could reach USD 100/MMBtu of USD 580/BOE in the winter, under their tail-risk scenario. For metals, its very much a case of more of the same with base-metals supportive, albeit off-best given Evergrande, after a robust APAC session post-FOMC. Given the gas issues, desks highlight that some companies are being forced to suspend/reduce production of items such as steel in Asian/European markets, a narrative that could become pertinent for broader prices if the situation continues. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are both modestly firmer but remain well within the range of yesterday’s session and are yet to recovery from the pressure seen in wake of the FOMC. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 320,000, prior 332,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.6m, prior 2.67m 8:30am: Aug. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.50, prior 0.53 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Composite PMI, prior 55.4 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Services PMI, est. 54.9, prior 55.1 9:45am: Sept. Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 61.0, prior 61.1 11am: Sept. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 25, prior 29 12pm: 2Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior $5t DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap My wife was at a parents event at school last night so I had to read three lots of bedtime stories just as the Fed were announcing their policy decision. Peppa Pig, Biff and Kipper, and somebody called Wonder Kid were interspersed with Powell’s press conference live on my phone. It’s fair to say the kids weren’t that impressed by the dot plot and just wanted to join them up. The twins (just turned 4) got their first reading book homework this week and it was a bit sad that one of them was deemed ready to have one with words whereas the other one only pictures. The latter was very upset and cried that his brother had words and he didn’t. That should create even more competitive tension! Back to the dots and yesterday’s Fed meeting was on the hawkish side in terms of the dots and also in terms of Powell’s confidence that the taper could be complete by mid-2022. Powell said that the Fed could begin tapering bond purchases as soon as the November FOMC meeting, in line with our US economists’ forecasts. He left some room for uncertainty, saying they would taper only “If the economy continues to progress broadly in line with expectations, and also the overall situation is appropriate for this.” However he made clear that “the timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff.” The quarterly “dot plot” showed that the 18 FOMC officials were split on whether to start raising rates next year or not. In June, the median dot indicated no rate increases until 2023, but now 6 members see a 25bps raise next year and 3 members see two such hikes. Their inflation forecasts were also revised up and DB’s Matt Luzzetti writes in his FOMC review (link here) that “If inflation is at or below the Fed's current forecast next year of 2.3% core PCE, liftoff is likely to come in 2023, consistent with our view. However, if inflation proves to be higher with inflation expectations continuing to rise, the first rate increase could well migrate into 2022.” Markets took the overall meeting very much in its stride with the biggest impact probably being a yield curve flattening even if US 10yr Treasury yields traded in just over a 4bp range yesterday and finishing -2.2bps lower at 1.301%. The 5y30y curve flattened -6.7bps to 95.6bps, its flattest level since August 2020, while the 2y10y curve was -4.2bps flatter. So the market seems to believe the more hawkish the Fed gets the more likely they’ll control inflation and/or choke the recovery. The puzzle is that even if the dots are correct, real Fed funds should still be negative and very accommodative historically for all of the forecasting period. As such the market has a very dim view of the ability of the economy to withstand rate hikes or alternatively that the QE technicals are overpowering everything at the moment. In equities, the S&P 500 was up nearly +1.0% 15 minutes prior to the Fed, and then rallied a further 0.5% in the immediate aftermath before a late dip look it back to +0.95%. The late dip meant that the S&P still has not seen a 1% up day since July 23. The index’s rise was driven by cyclicals in particular with energy (+3.17%), semiconductors (-2.20%), and banks (+2.13%) leading the way. Asian markets are mostly trading higher this morning with the Hang Seng (+0.69%), Shanghai Comp (+0.58%), ASX (+1.03%) and India’s Nifty (+0.81%) all up. The Kospi (-0.36%) is trading lower though and is still catching up from the early week holidays. Japan’s markets are closed for a holiday today. Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.25% while those on the Stoxx 50 are up +0.49%. There is no new news on the Evergrande debt crisis however markets participants are likely to pay attention to whether the group is able to make interest rate payment on its 5 year dollar note today after the group had said yesterday that it resolved a domestic bond coupon by negotiations which was also due today. As we highlighted in our CoTD flash poll conducted earlier this week, market participants are not too worried about a wider fallout from the Evergrande crisis and even the Hang Seng Properties index is up +3.93% this morning and is largely back at the levels before the big Monday sell-off of -6.69%. Overnight we have received flash PMIs for Australia which improved as parts of the country have eased the coronavirus restrictions. The services reading came in at 44.9 (vs. 42.9 last month) and the manufacturing print was even stronger at 57.3 (vs. 52.0 last month). Japan’s flash PMIs will be out tomorrow due to today’s holiday. Ahead of the Fed, markets had continued to rebound from their declines earlier in the week, with Europe’s STOXX 600 gaining +0.99% to narrowly put the index in positive territory for the week. This continues the theme of a relative outperformance among European equities compared to the US, with the STOXX 600 having outpaced the S&P 500 for 5 consecutive sessions now, though obviously by a slim margin yesterday. Sovereign bonds in Europe also posted gains, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.7bps), OATs (-1.0bps) and BTPs (-3.2bps) all moving lower. Furthermore, there was another tightening in peripheral spreads, with the gap in Italian 10yr yields over bunds falling to 98.8bps yesterday, less than half a basis point away from its tightest level since early April. Moving to fiscal and with Democrats seemingly unable to pass the $3.5 trillion Biden budget plan by Monday, when the House is set to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, Republican leadership is calling on their members to vote against the bipartisan bill in hopes of delaying the process further. While the there is still a high likelihood the measure will eventually get passed, time is becoming a factor. Congress now has just over a week to get a government funding bill through both chambers of congress as well as raise the debt ceiling by next month. Republicans have told Democrats to do the latter in a partisan manner and include it in the reconciliation process which could mean that a significant portion of the Biden economic agenda – mostly encapsulated in the $3.5 trillion over 10 year budget – may have to be cut down to get the entire Democratic caucus on board. Looking ahead, an event to watch out for today will be the Bank of England’s policy decision at 12:00 London time, where our economists write (link here) that they expect no change in the policy settings. However, they do expect a reaffirmation of the BoE’s updated forward guidance that some tightening will be needed over the next few years to keep inflation in check, even if it’s too early to expect a further hawkish pivot at this stage. Staying on the UK, two further energy suppliers (Avro Energy and Green Supplier) ceased trading yesterday amidst the surge in gas prices, with the two supplying 2.9% of domestic customers between them. We have actually seen a modest fall in European natural gas prices over the last couple of days, with the benchmark future down -4.81% since its close on Monday, although it’s worth noting that still leaves them up +75.90% since the start of August alone. There wasn’t much data to speak of yesterday, though US existing home sales fell to an annualised rate of 5.88 in August (vs. 5.89m expected). Separately, the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area unexpectedly rose to -4.0 in September (vs. -5.9 expected). To the day ahead now, the data highlights include the September flash PMIs from around the world, while in the US there’s the weekly initial jobless claims, the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for August, and the Kansas City fed’s manufacturing activity index for September. From central banks, there’ll be a monetary policy decision from the Bank of England, while the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin and the ECB’s Elderson will also speak. From emerging markets, there’ll also be monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank of Turkey and the South African Reserve Bank. Finally in Germany, there’s an election debate with the lead candidates from the Bundestag parties. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/23/2021 - 08:13.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 23rd, 2021

Existing-Home Sales Retreat in August

Existing-home sales backed up in August, after two consecutive months of increases, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). Each of the four major U.S. regions experienced declines on both a MoM and YoY basis. Total existing-home sales decreased by 2.0% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.88 million in August. […] The post Existing-Home Sales Retreat in August appeared first on RISMedia. Existing-home sales backed up in August, after two consecutive months of increases, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). Each of the four major U.S. regions experienced declines on both a MoM and YoY basis. Total existing-home sales decreased by 2.0% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.88 million in August. Year-over-year, sales dropped 1.5% from last year (5.97 million in August 2020). Single-family home sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.19 million in August, down 1.9% from 5.29 million in July and down 2.8% from last year. Existing condo and co-op sales recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 690,000 units in August, down 2.8% from 710,000 in July but up 9.5% from last year. By Region: Midwest Existing-Home Sales: 1.37 million (-2.1% YoY) Median Price: $272,200 (+10.5% YoY) Northeast Existing-Home Sales: 730,000 (-2.7% YoY) Median Price: $407,800 (+16.8% YoY) South Existing-Home Sales: 2.55 million (-0.8% YoY) Median Price: $303,200 (+12.8% YoY) West Existing-Home Sales: 1.23 million (-1.6% YoY) Median Price: $507,900 (+11.4% YoY) What the industry is saying: “Sales slipped a bit in August as prices rose nationwide. Although there was a decline in home purchases, potential buyers are out and about searching, but much more measured about their financial limits, and simply waiting for more inventory. High home prices make for an unbalanced market, but prices would normalize with more supply. Securing a home is still a major challenge for many prospective buyers. A number of potential buyers have merely paused their search, but their desire and need for a home remain.” — Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR “We will continue working with federal policymakers and stakeholders from across the industry in an effort to increase housing supply and ensure the American Dream of homeownership remains accessible to as many people as possible.” — Charlie Oppler, President, NAR “While housing activity has clearly cooled from its frenzy during the midst of the pandemic, home sales remain well-above the pre-pandemic pace and the median sales price continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. A still-large number of young households are driving housing market activity, and leveraging the boost in purchasing power provided by low mortgage rates. Despite this, rising home prices mean that today’s buyers are spending larger shares of their paychecks to buy the typical home, and that trend could eventually cause some buyers to put home searches on hold, especially if mortgage rates begin to rise in response to expected tapering of asset purchases by the Fed later this year. “Those who continue their home searches in the cooler months ahead are likely to be pleasantly surprised. Not only do we expect to see the usual seasonal respite from the competitiveness of the spring and summer home-buying season—making early fall the best time to buy a home—the return of sellers to the housing market driven by the improving economy and diminishing health risks could accentuate this trend. “Additionally, recent construction figures show that builders continued to ramp up production in August and their outlook remained high in September, even as supply-chain challenges continue. These modest improvements are welcome, but haven’t changed the big-picture state: there are not enough homes for sale. Despite the recent improvement, single-family construction would still need to double to close the gap with household formation that accumulated over the last decade within the next five to six years.” — Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, realtor.com® “Moving into the fall we continue to expect to see year-over-year declines in home sales related primarily to a return to normal seasonal patterns. This is a result of the base-effect created by the abnormal surge in home sales we saw in late Q3 and Q4 of 2020. The economy has continued to strengthen despite the recent surge in the Delta variant and we see the fundamentals behind housing demand remain strong looking at the rest of 2021 and into 2022. “Home prices remain our primary source of concern as affordability becomes an increasing challenge, particularly for first time homebuyers who have not had the opportunity to benefit from the wealth created from recent surges in home equity. We expect that the Federal Reserve will likely give further indication on timing this week on reductions in Mortgage Backed Securities purchases. “In multiple meetings, the Fed has pointed to trends in home prices as potential justification for reducing asset purchases, implying the upward pressure on mortgage rates would be useful in helping slow the pace of home price appreciation. Overall we think home sales will remain strong going into next year, but we should see inventory levels continue to slowly trend toward more normal levels and home price appreciation begin to slow over time.” — Ruben Gonzalez, Chief Economist, Keller Williams  For more information, please visit www.nar.realtor. The post Existing-Home Sales Retreat in August appeared first on RISMedia......»»

Category: realestateSource: rismediaSep 22nd, 2021

Altair Engineering (ALTR) Ties Up With TrueInsight, Widens Reach

Altair Engineering (ALTR) inks collaboration with TrueInsight to offer tailor-made support for customers across the country. Altair Engineering Inc. ALTR recently announced that it has inked a collaboration with TrueInsight — a Sandy, UT-based data analytics, and AI software solutions company.Per this channel partner agreement, TrueInsight will be responsible for completely managing middle market customer relationships. It will provide strategic sales and robust technical support to Altair Engineering's customers. TrueInsight has an experience of more than 25 years and is authorised to support Altair Engineering’s customers with its industry-leading software services.With respect to the partnership, Jason Napolitano, senior vice president, Americas, of Altair Engineering, has said, “This partnership will accelerate the growth for both organizations, while offering our customers the solutions and tailored support they need to grow their business.”Meanwhile, Altair Engineering’s channel partner circle is actively expanding its global reach across all industries and regions.Share PerformanceSolid execution of Altair Engineering’s strategy of driving organic revenue growth and profit has been boosting growth. During second-quarter 2021, software product revenues were $99.6 million compared with $81.8 million a year ago, reflecting an increase of 21.7%. Total revenues for the quarter rose 21.7% to $119.9 million from $98.6 million a year ago.Coming to share price performance, Altair Engineering has surged 81% in the past year, compared with the Zacks Engineering - R and D Services industry’s 73.1% rally. Notably, earnings estimates for 2021 have moved up over the past 60 days, depicting analysts’ optimism regarding its bottom-line growth potential. The company is benefiting from strong customer demand across all its verticals, regions, and products, reflecting year-over-year revenue growth.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchZacks Rank & Other Key PicksCurrently, Altair Engineering carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Other top-ranked stocks in the same industry include KBR, Inc. KBR, Quanta Services, Inc. PWR and Howmet Aerospace Inc. HWM, each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).KBR, Quanta Services and Howmet’s earnings for 2021 are expected to rise 24.9%,19.9% and 25%, respectively. Infrastructure Stock Boom to Sweep America A massive push to rebuild the crumbling U.S. infrastructure will soon be underway. It’s bipartisan, urgent, and inevitable. Trillions will be spent. Fortunes will be made. The only question is “Will you get into the right stocks early when their growth potential is greatest?” Zacks has released a Special Report to help you do just that, and today it’s free. Discover 7 special companies that look to gain the most from construction and repair to roads, bridges, and buildings, plus cargo hauling and energy transformation on an almost unimaginable scale.Download FREE: How to Profit from Trillions on Spending for Infrastructure >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR): Free Stock Analysis Report Altair Engineering Inc. (ALTR): Free Stock Analysis Report KBR, Inc. (KBR): Free Stock Analysis Report Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 22nd, 2021

Futures Bounce On Evergrande Reprieve With Fed Looming

Futures Bounce On Evergrande Reprieve With Fed Looming Despite today's looming hawkish FOMC meeting in which Powell is widely expected to unveil that tapering is set to begin as soon as November and where the Fed's dot plot may signal one rate hike in 2022, futures climbed as investor concerns over China's Evergrande eased after the property developer negotiated a domestic bond payment deal. Commodities rallied while the dollar was steady. Contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 flipped from losses to gains as China’s central bank boosted liquidity when it injected a gross 120BN in yuan, the most since January... ... and investors mulled a vaguely-worded statement from the troubled developer about an interest payment.  S&P 500 E-minis were up 23.0 points, or 0.53%, at 7:30 a.m. ET. Dow E-minis were up 199 points, or 0.60%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 44.00 points, or 0.29%. Among individual stocks, Fedex fell 5.8% after the delivery company cut its profit outlook on higher costs and stalled growth in shipments. Morgan Stanley says it sees the company’s 1Q issues getting “tougher from here.” Commodity-linked oil and metal stocks led gains in premarket trade, while a slight rise in Treasury yields supported major banks. However, most sectors were nursing steep losses in recent sessions. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers: Adobe (ADBE US) down 3.1% after 3Q update disappointed the high expectations of investors, though the broader picture still looks solid, Morgan Stanley said in a note Freeport McMoRan (FCX US), Cleveland- Cliffs (CLF US), Alcoa (AA US) and U.S. Steel (X US) up 2%-3% premarket, following the path of global peers as iron ore prices in China rallied Aethlon Medical (AEMD US) and Exela Technologies (XELAU US) advance along with other retail traders’ favorites in the U.S. premarket session. Aethlon jumps 21%; Exela up 8.3% Other so-called meme stocks also rise: ContextLogic +1%; Clover Health +0.9%; Naked Brand +0.9%; AMC +0.5% ReWalk Robotics slumps 18% in U.S. premarket trading, a day after nearly doubling in value Stitch Fix (SFIX US) rises 15.7% in light volume after the personal styling company’s 4Q profit and sales blew past analysts’ expectations Hyatt Hotels (H US) seen opening lower after the company launches a seven-million-share stock offering Summit Therapeutics (SMMT US) shares fell as much as 17% in Tuesday extended trading after it said the FDA doesn’t agree with the change to the primary endpoint that has been implemented in the ongoing Phase III Ri-CoDIFy studies when combining the studies Marin Software (MRIN US) surged more than 75% Tuesday postmarket after signing a new revenue-sharing agreement with Google to develop its enterprise technology platforms and software products The S&P 500 had fallen for 10 of the past 12 sessions since hitting a record high, as fears of an Evergrande default exacerbated seasonally weak trends and saw investors pull out of stocks trading at lofty valuations. The Nasdaq fell the least among its peers in recent sessions, as investors pivoted back into big technology names that had proven resilient through the pandemic. Focus now turns to the Fed's decision, due at 2 p.m. ET where officials are expected to signal a start to scaling down monthly bond purchases (see our preview here).  The Fed meeting comes after a period of market volatility stoked by Evergrande’s woes. China’s wider property-sector curbs are also feeding into concerns about a slowdown in the economic recovery from the pandemic. “Chair Jerome Powell could hint at the tapering approaching shortly,” said Sébastien Barbé, a strategist at Credit Agricole CIB. “However, given the current uncertainty factors (China property market, Covid, pace of global slowdown), the Fed should remain cautious when it comes to withdrawing liquidity support.” Meanwhile, confirming what Ray Dalio said that the taper will just bring more QE, Governing Council member Madis Muller said the  European Central Bank may boost its regular asset purchases once the pandemic-era emergency stimulus comes to an end. “Dovish signals could unwind some of the greenback’s gains while offering relief to stock markets,” Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group, wrote in emailed comments. A “hawkish shift would jolt markets, potentially pushing Treasury yields and the dollar past the upper bound of recent ranges, while gold and equities would sell off hunting down the next levels of support.” China avoided a major selloff as trading resumed following a holiday, after the country’s central bank boosted its injection of short-term cash into the financial system. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index declined for a third day, dragged lower by Japan. Stocks were also higher in Europe. Basic resources - which bounced from a seven month low - and energy were among the leading gainers in the Stoxx Europe 600 index as commodity prices steadied after Beijing moved to contain fears of a spiraling debt crisis. Entain Plc rose more than 7%, extending Tuesday’s gain as it confirmed it received a takeover proposal from DraftKings Inc. Peer Flutter Entertainment Plc climbed after settling a legal dispute.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Entain shares jump as much as 11% after DraftKings Inc. offered to acquire the U.K. gambling company for about $22.4 billion. Vivendi rises as much as 3.1% in Paris, after Tuesday’s spinoff of Universal Music Group. Legrand climbs as much as 2.1% after Exane BNP Paribas upgrades to outperform and raises PT to a Street-high of EU135. Orpea shares falls as much as 2.9%, after delivering 1H results that Jefferies (buy) says were a “touch” below consensus. Bechtle slides as much as 5.1% after Metzler downgrades to hold from buy, saying persistent supply chain problems seem to be weighing on growth. Sopra Steria drops as much as 4.1% after Stifel initiates coverage with a sell, citing caution on company’s M&A strategy Despite the Evergrande announcement, Asian stocks headed for their longest losing streak in more than a month amid continued China-related concerns, with traders also eying policy decisions from major central banks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.7% in its third day of declines, with TSMC and Keyence the biggest drags. China’s CSI 300 tumbled as much as 1.9% as the local market reopened following a two-day holiday. However, the gauge came off lows after an Evergrande unit said it will make a bond interest payment and as China’s central bank boosted liquidity.  Taiwan’s equity benchmark led losses in Asia on Wednesday, dragged by TSMC after a two-day holiday, while markets in Hong Kong and South Korea were closed. Key stock gauges in Australia, Indonesia and Vietnam rose “A liquidity injection from the People’s Bank of China accompanied the Evergrande announcement, which only served to bolster sentiment further,” according to DailyFX’s Thomas Westwater and Daniel Dubrovsky. “For now, it appears that market-wide contagion risk linked to a potential Evergrande collapse is off the table.” Japanese equities fell for a second day amid global concern over China’s real-estate sector, as the Bank of Japan held its key stimulus tools in place while flagging pressures on the economy. Electronics makers were the biggest drag on the Topix, which declined 1%. Daikin and Fanuc were the largest contributors to a 0.7% loss in the Nikkei 225. The BOJ had been expected to maintain its policy levers ahead of next week’s key ruling party election. Traders are keenly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision due later for clues on the U.S. central banks plan for tapering stimulus. “Markets for some time have been convinced that the BOJ has reached the end of the line on normalization and will remain in a holding pattern on policy until at least April 2023 when Governor Kuroda is scheduled to leave,” UOB economist Alvin Liew wrote in a note. “Attention for the BOJ will now likely shift to dealing with the long-term climate change issues.” In the despotic lockdown regime that is Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3% to close at 7,296.90, reversing an early decline in a rally led by mining and energy stocks. Banks closed lower for the fourth day in a row. Champion Iron was among the top performers after it was upgraded at Citi. IAG was among the worst performers after an earthquake caused damage to buildings in Melbourne. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.3% to 13,215.80 In FX, commodity currencies rallied as concerns about China Evergrande Group’s debt troubles eased as China’s central bank boosted liquidity and investors reviewed a statement from the troubled developer about an interest payment. Overnight implied volatility on the pound climbed to the highest since March ahead of Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday. The British pound weakened after Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng warnedthat people should prepare for longer-term high energy prices amid a natural-gas shortage that sent power costs soaring. Several U.K. power firms have stopped taking in new clients as small energy suppliers struggle to meet their previous commitments to sell supplies at lower prices. Overnight volatility in the euro rises above 10% for the first time since July ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision announcement. The Aussie jumped as much as 0.5% as iron-ore prices rebounded. Spot surged through option-related selling at 0.7240 before topping out near 0.7265 strikes expiring Wednesday, according to Asia- based FX traders.  Elsewhere, the yen weakened and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar pushed higher. In rates, the dollar weakened against most of its Group-of-10 peers. Treasury futures were under modest pressure in early U.S. trading, leaving yields cheaper by ~1.5bp from belly to long-end of the curve. The 10-year yield was at ~1.336% steepening the 2s10s curve by ~1bp as the front-end was little changed. Improved risk appetite weighed; with stock futures have recovering much of Tuesday’s losses as Evergrande concerns subside. Focal point for Wednesday’s session is FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET.   FOMC is expected to suggest it will start scaling back asset purchases later this year, while its quarterly summary of economic projections reveals policy makers’ expectations for the fed funds target in coming years in the dot-plot update; eurodollar positions have emerged recently that anticipate a hawkish shift Bitcoin dropped briefly below $40,000 for the first time since August amid rising criticism from regulators, before rallying as the mood in global markets improved. In commodities, Iron ore halted its collapse and metals steadied. Oil advanced for a second day. Bitcoin slid below $40,000 for the first time since early August before rebounding back above $42,000.   To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned Federal Reserve decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise on the data side, we’ll get US existing home sales for August, and the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area in September. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,362.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 461.19 MXAP down 0.7% to 199.29 MXAPJ down 0.4% to 638.39 Nikkei down 0.7% to 29,639.40 Topix down 1.0% to 2,043.55 Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 24,221.54 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,628.49 Sensex little changed at 59,046.84 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,296.94 Kospi up 0.3% to 3,140.51 Brent Futures up 1.5% to $75.47/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,775.15 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.26 German 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to -0.319% Euro little changed at $1.1725 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg What would it take to knock the U.S. recovery off course and send Federal Reserve policy makers back to the drawing board? Not much — and there are plenty of candidates to deliver the blow The European Central Bank will discuss boosting its regular asset purchases once the pandemic-era emergency stimulus comes to an end, but any such increase is uncertain, Governing Council member Madis Muller said Investors seeking hints about how Beijing plans to deal with China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis are training their cross hairs on the central bank’s liquidity management A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mixed as caution lingered ahead of upcoming risk events including the FOMC, with participants also digesting the latest Evergrande developments and China’s return to the market from the Mid-Autumn Festival. ASX 200 (+0.3%) was positive with the index led higher by the energy sector after a rebound in oil prices and as tech also outperformed, but with gains capped by weakness in the largest-weighted financials sector including Westpac which was forced to scrap the sale of its Pacific businesses after failing to secure regulatory approval. Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) was subdued amid the lack of fireworks from the BoJ announcement to keep policy settings unchanged and ahead of the upcoming holiday closure with the index only briefly supported by favourable currency outflows. Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) was initially pressured on return from the long-weekend and with Hong Kong markets closed, but pared losses with risk appetite supported by news that Evergrande’s main unit Hengda Real Estate will make coupon payments due tomorrow, although other sources noted this is referring to the onshore bond payments valued around USD 36mln and that there was no mention of the offshore bond payments valued at USD 83.5mln which are also due tomorrow. Meanwhile, the PBoC facilitated liquidity through a CNY 120bln injection and provided no surprises in keeping its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged for the 17th consecutive month at 3.85% and 4.65%, respectively. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat amid the absence of any major surprises from the BoJ policy announcement and following the choppy trade in T-notes which were briefly pressured in a knee-jerk reaction to the news that Evergrande’s unit will satisfy its coupon obligations tomorrow, but then faded most of the losses as cautiousness prevailed. Top Asian News Gold Steady as Traders Await Outcome of Fed Policy Meeting Evergrande Filing on Yuan Bond Interest Leaves Analysts Guessing Singapore Category E COE Price Rises to Highest Since April 2014 Asian Stocks Fall for Third Day as Focus Turns to Central Banks European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.5%) trade on a firmer footing in the wake of an encouraging APAC handover. Focus overnight was on the return of Chinese participants from the Mid-Autumn Festival and news that Evergrande’s main unit, Hengda Real Estate will make coupon payments due tomorrow; however, we await indication as to whether they will meet Thursday’s offshore payment deadline as well. Furthermore, the PBoC facilitated liquidity through a CNY 120bln injection whilst keeping its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged (as expected). Note, despite gaining yesterday and today, thus far, the Stoxx 600 is still lower to the tune of 0.7% on the week. Stateside, futures are also trading on a firmer footing ahead of today’s FOMC policy announcement, at which, market participants will be eyeing any clues for when the taper will begin and digesting the latest dot plot forecasts. Furthermore, the US House voted to pass the bill to fund the government through to December 3rd and suspend the debt limit to end-2022, although this will likely be blocked by Senate Republicans. Back to Europe, sectors are mostly firmer with outperformance in Basic Resources and Oil & Gas amid upside in the metals and energy complex. Elsewhere, Travel & Leisure is faring well amid further upside in Entain (+6.1%) with the Co. noting it rejected an earlier approach from DraftKings at GBP 25/shr with the new offer standing at GBP 28/shr. Additionally for the sector, Flutter Entertainment (+4.1%) are trading higher after settling the legal dispute between the Co. and Commonwealth of Kentucky. Elsewhere, in terms of deal flow, Iliad announced that it is to acquire UPC Poland for around USD 1.8bln. Top European News Energy Cost Spike Gets on EU Ministers’ Green Deal Agenda Travel Startup HomeToGo Gains in Frankfurt Debut After SPAC Deal London Stock Exchange to Shut Down CurveGlobal Exchange EU Banks Expected to Add Capital for Climate Risk, EBA Says In FX, trade remains volatile as this week’s deluge of global Central Bank policy meetings continues to unfold amidst fluctuations in broad risk sentiment from relatively pronounced aversion at various stages to a measured and cautious pick-up in appetite more recently. Hence, the tide is currently turning in favour of activity, cyclical and commodity currencies, albeit tentatively in the run up to the Fed, with the Kiwi and Aussie trying to regroup on the 0.7000 handle and 0.7350 axis against their US counterpart, and the latter also striving to shrug off negative domestic impulses like a further decline below zero in Westpac’s leading index and an earthquake near Melbourne. Next up for Nzd/Usd and Aud/Usd, beyond the FOMC, trade data and preliminary PMIs respectively. DXY/CHF/EUR/CAD - Notwithstanding the overall improvement in market tone noted above, or another major change in mood and direction, the Dollar index appears to have found a base just ahead of 93.000 and ceiling a similar distance away from 93.500, as it meanders inside those extremes awaiting US existing home sales that are scheduled for release before the main Fed events (policy statement, SEP and post-meeting press conference from chair Powell). Indeed, the Franc, Euro and Loonie have all recoiled into tighter bands vs the Greenback, between 0.9250-26, 1.1739-17 and 1.2831-1.2770, but with the former still retaining an underlying bid more evident in the Eur/Chf cross that is consolidating under 1.0850 and will undoubtedly be acknowledged by the SNB tomorrow. Meanwhile, Eur/Usd has hardly reacted to latest ECB commentary from Muller underpinning that the APP is likely to be boosted once the PEPP envelope is closed, though Usd/Cad is eyeing a firm rebound in oil prices in conjunction with hefty option expiry interest at the 1.2750 strike (1.8 bn) that may prevent the headline pair from revisiting w-t-d lows not far beneath the half round number. GBP/JPY - The major laggards, as Sterling slips slightly further beneath 1.3650 against the Buck to a fresh weekly low and Eur/Gbp rebounds from circa 0.8574 to top 0.8600 on FOMC day and T-1 to super BoE Thursday. Elsewhere, the Yen has lost momentum after peaking around 109.12 and still not garnering sufficient impetus to test 109.00 via an unchanged BoJ in terms of all policy settings and guidance, as Governor Kuroda trotted out the no hesitation to loosen the reins if required line for the umpteenth time. However, Usd/Jpy is holding around 109.61 and some distance from 1.1 bn option expiries rolling off between 109.85-110.00 at the NY cut. SCANDI/EM - Brent’s revival to Usd 75.50+/brl from sub-Usd 73.50 only yesterday has given the Nok another fillip pending confirmation of a Norges Bank hike tomorrow, while the Zar has regained some poise with the aid of firmer than forecast SA headline and core CPI alongside a degree of retracement following Wednesday’s breakdown of talks on a pay deal for engineering workers that prompted the union to call a strike from early October. Similarly, the Cnh and Cny by default have regrouped amidst reports that the CCP is finalising details to restructure Evergrande into 3 separate entities under a plan that will see the Chinese Government take control. In commodities, WTI and Brent are firmer this morning though once again fresh newsflow for the complex has been relatively slim and largely consisting of gas-related commentary; as such, the benchmarks are taking their cue from the broader risk tone (see equity section). The improvement in sentiment today has brought WTI and Brent back in proximity to being unchanged on the week so far as a whole; however, the complex will be dictated directly by the EIA weekly inventory first and then indirectly, but perhaps more pertinently, by today’s FOMC. On the weekly inventories, last nights private release was a larger than expected draw for the headline and distillate components, though the Cushing draw was beneath expectations; for today, consensus is a headline draw pf 2.44mln. Moving to metals where the return of China has seen a resurgence for base metals with LME copper posting upside of nearly 3.0%, for instance. Albeit there is no fresh newsflow for the complex as such, so it remains to be seen how lasting this resurgence will be. Finally, spot gold and silver are firmer but with the magnitude once again favouring silver over the yellow metal. US Event Calendar 10am: Aug. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -1.7%, prior 2.0% 2pm: Sept. FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Boun, est. 0%, prior 0% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap All eyes firmly on China this morning as it reopens following a 2-day holiday. As expected the indices there have opened lower but the scale of the declines are being softened by the PBoC increasing its short term cash injections into the economy. They’ve added a net CNY 90bn into the system. On Evergrande, we’ve also seen some positive headlines as the property developers’ main unit Hengda Real Estate Group has said that it will make coupon payment for an onshore bond tomorrow. However, the exchange filing said that the interest payment “has been resolved via negotiations with bondholders off the clearing house”. This is all a bit vague and doesn’t mention the dollar bond at this stage. Meanwhile, Bloomberg has reported that Chinese authorities have begun to lay the groundwork for a potential restructuring that could be one of the country’s biggest, assembling accounting and legal experts to examine the finances of the group. All this follows news from Bloomberg yesterday that Evergrande missed interest payments that had been due on Monday to at least two banks. In terms of markets the CSI (-1.11%), Shanghai Comp (-0.29%) and Shenzhen Comp (-0.53%) are all lower but have pared back deeper losses from the open. We did a flash poll in the CoTD yesterday (link here) and after over 700 responses in a couple of hours we found only 8% who we thought Evergrande would still be impacting financial markets significantly in a month’s time. 24% thought it would be slightly impacting. The other 68% thought limited or no impact. So the world is relatively relaxed about contagion risk for now. The bigger risk might be the knock on impact of weaker Chinese growth. So that’s one to watch even if you’re sanguine on the systemic threat. Craig Nicol in my credit team did a good note yesterday (link here) looking at the contagion risk to the broader HY market. I thought he summed it up nicely as to why we all need to care one way or another in saying that “Evergrande is the largest corporate, in the largest sector, of the second largest economy in the world”. For context AT&T is the largest corporate borrower in the US market and VW the largest in Europe. Turning back to other Asian markets now and the Nikkei (-0.65%) is down but the Hang Seng (+0.51%) and Asx (+0.58%) are up. South Korean markets continue to remain closed for a holiday. Elsewhere, yields on 10y USTs are trading flattish while futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.10% and those on the Stoxx 50 are up +0.21%. Crude oil prices are also up c.+1% this morning. In other news, the Bank of Japan policy announcement overnight was a non-event as the central bank maintained its yield curve target while keeping the policy rate and asset purchases plan unchanged. The central bank also unveiled more details of its green lending program and said that it would immediately start accepting applications and would begin making the loans in December. The relatively calm Asian session follows a stabilisation in markets yesterday following their rout on Monday as investors looked forward to the outcome of the Fed’s meeting later today. That said, it was hardly a resounding performance, with the S&P 500 unable to hold on to its intraday gains and ending just worse than unchanged after the -1.70% decline the previous day as investors remained vigilant as to the array of risks that continue to pile up on the horizon. One of these is in US politics and legislators seem no closer to resolving the various issues surrounding a potential government shutdown at the end of the month, along with a potential debt ceiling crisis in October, which is another flashing alert on the dashboard for investors that’s further contributing to weaker sentiment right now. Looking ahead now, today’s main highlight will be the latest Federal Reserve decision along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference, with the policy decision out at 19:00 London time. Markets have been on edge for any clues about when the Fed might begin to taper asset purchases, but concern about tapering actually being announced at this meeting has dissipated over recent weeks, particularly after the most recent nonfarm payrolls in August came in at just +235k, and the monthly CPI print also came in beneath consensus expectations for the first time since November. In terms of what to expect, our US economists write in their preview (link here) that they see the statement adopting Chair Powell’s language that a reduction in the pace of asset purchases is appropriate “this year”, so long as the economy remains on track. They see Powell maintaining optionality about the exact timing of that announcement, but they think that the message will effectively be that the bar to pushing the announcement beyond November is relatively high in the absence of any material downside surprises. This meeting also sees the release of the FOMC’s latest economic projections and the dot plot, where they expect there’ll be an upward drift in the dots that raises the number of rate hikes in 2023 to 3, followed by another 3 increases in 2024. Back to yesterday, and as mentioned US equity markets fell for a second straight day after being unable to hold on to earlier gains, with the S&P 500 slightly lower (-0.08%). High-growth industries outperformed with biotech (+0.38%) and semiconductors (+0.18%) leading the NASDAQ (+0.22%) slightly higher, however the Dow Jones (-0.15%) also struggled. Europe saw a much stronger performance though as much of the US decline came after Europe had closed. The STOXX 600 gained +1.00% to erase most of Monday’s losses, with almost every sector in the index ending the day in positive territory. With risk sentiment improving for much of the day yesterday, US Treasuries sold off slightly and by the close of trade yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +1.2bps to 1.3226%, thanks to a +1.8bps increase in real yields. However, sovereign bonds in Europe told a different story as yields on 10yr bunds (-0.3bps), OATs (-0.3bps) and BTPs (-1.9bps) moved lower. Other safe havens including gold (+0.59%) and silver (+1.02%) also benefited, but this wasn’t reflected across commodities more broadly, with Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (-0.30%) losing ground for a 4th consecutive session. Democratic Party leaders plan to vote on the Senate-approved $500bn bipartisan infrastructure bill next Monday, even with no resolution to the $3.5tr budget reconciliation measure that encompasses the remainder of the Biden Administration’s economic agenda. Democrats continue to work on the reconciliation measure but have turned their attention to the debt ceiling and government funding bills.Congress has fewer than two weeks before the current budget expires – on Oct 1 – to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling. Republicans yesterday noted that the Democrats could raise the ceiling on their own through the reconciliation process, with many saying that they would not be offering their support to any funding bill. Democrats continue to push for a bipartisan bill to raise the debt ceiling, pointing to their votes during the Trump administration. If Democrats are forced to tie the debt ceiling and funding bills to budget reconciliation, it could limit how much of the $3.5 trillion bill survives the last minute negotiations between progressives and moderates. More to come over the next 10 days. Staying on the US, there was an important announcement in President Biden’s speech at the UN General Assembly, as he said that he would work with Congress to double US funding to poorer nations to deal with climate change. That comes as UK Prime Minister Johnson (with the UK hosting the COP26 summit in less than 6 weeks’ time) has been lobbying other world leaders to find the $100bn per year that developed economies pledged by 2020 to support developing countries as they reduce their emissions and deal with climate change. In Germany, there are just 4 days to go now until the federal election, and a Forsa poll out yesterday showed a slight narrowing in the race, with the centre-left SPD remaining on 25%, but the CDU/CSU gained a point on last week to 22%, which puts them within the +/- 2.5 point margin of error. That narrowing has been seen in Politico’s Poll of Polls as well, with the race having tightened from a 5-point SPD lead over the CDU/CSU last week to a 3-point one now. Turning to the pandemic, Johnson & Johnson reported that their booster shot given 8 weeks after the first offered 100% protection against severe disease, 94% protection against symptomatic Covid in the US, and 75% against symptomatic Covid globally. Speaking of boosters, Bloomberg reported that the FDA was expected to decide as soon as today on a recommendation for Pfizer’s booster vaccine. That follows an FDA advisory panel rejecting a booster for all adults last Friday, restricting the recommendation to those over-65 and other high-risk categories. Staying with the US and vaccines, President Biden announced that the US was ordering 500mn doses of the Pfizer vaccine to be exported to the rest of the world. On the data front, there were some strong US housing releases for August, with housing starts up by an annualised 1.615m (vs. 1.55m expected), and building permits up by 1.728m (vs. 1.6m expected). Separately, the OECD released their Interim Economic Outlook, which saw them upgrade their inflation expectations for the G20 this year to +3.7% (up +0.2ppts from May) and for 2022 to +3.9% (up +0.5ppts from May). Their global growth forecast saw little change at +5.7% in 2021 (down a tenth) and +4.5% for 2022 (up a tenth). To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the aforementioned Federal Reserve decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise on the data side, we’ll get US existing home sales for August, and the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area in September. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 08:05.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeSep 22nd, 2021

D.R. Horton (DHI) Q4 & FY21 View Trimmed, Supply Woes Exist

D.R. Horton (DHI) witnesses intense supply chain disruptions and a tight labor market in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021. D.R. Horton, Inc. DHI has reduced its fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 guidance for homes closed, consolidated revenues and home sales gross margin. The company has been witnessing significant supply chain disruptions, including shortages and delayed delivery of certain building materials along with a tight labor market.It now expects fiscal fourth-quarter homes closed within 21,300-21,700 compared with 23,000-24,500 expected earlier. For the full year of fiscal 2021, the company expects homes closed to increase 24-25% or 81,300-81,700 versus 83,000-84,500 projected earlier.Owing to reduced closing volume, partially offset by an increase in the average sales price of homes closed, D.R. Horton now expects revenues between $7.7 billion and $7.9 billion compared with the prior projected range of $7.9-$8.4 billion. It now expects fiscal 2021 revenues to rise 35-36% from a year ago to $27.4-$27.6 billion versus the previous guidance of $27.6-$28.1 billion.Nonetheless, gross margin is now expected within 26.5-26.8% for the fiscal fourth quarter compared with 26-26.3% expected earlier. The uptrend in gross margin expectation is primarily backed by strong new home demand and limited housing supply that are supporting pricing power across most of its operating footprint. The mixed pattern in housing fundamentals is likely to have a limited impact on D.R. Horton’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings.For fiscal 2022, it expects to grow homes closed at a double-digit percentage pace.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchOn Sep 20, D.R. Horton and other industry biggies like PulteGroup, Inc. PHM, Lennar Corporation LEN, and Toll Brothers, Inc. TOL declined largely after the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released builder confidence data for September, which inched up one point to 76 from the prior month. NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke noted that delivery times remain extended and the chronic construction labor shortage is expected to persist as the overall labor market recovers.That said, D.R. Horton — which belongs to the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry and carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) — remains optimistic about the industry’s prospects, given robust demand for single-family homes, declining material prices as well as low-interest rates.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. 5 Stocks Set to Double Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2021. Previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%. Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM): Free Stock Analysis Report Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL): Free Stock Analysis Report Lennar Corporation (LEN): Free Stock Analysis Report D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 21st, 2021

WillScot Mobile Mini (WSC) Buys Storage Services Companies

WillScot Mobile Mini (WSC) bolsters its storage capacity with the addition of three Storage companies to its portfolio. WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings Corp. WSC acquired three regional storage service companies — American Mobile Leasing, Inc., Equipe Container Services, d/b/a Moveable Container Storage and Saf-T-Box, LP. The company funded the transaction through cash on hand and borrowings under revolving credit agreement.With the addition of these storage services companies, WillScot Mobile Mini will now hold additional 11,000 storage units in its existing U.S. markets.With respect to this, CEO of WillScot Mobile Mini, Brad Soultz, stated, “We are excited to welcome the employees of American Mobile Leasing, Equipe, and Saf-T-Box to the WillScot Mobile Mini family. Each company is a highly respected peer and strengthens our position in key markets across the United States. These acquisitions are consistent with our growth strategy, allowing us to extend our ‘Ready to Work’ value proposition to new customers and further expand our industry leading fleet availability and service capabilities.”WillScot Mobile Mini intends to invest more in such businesses, by better implementation of technology as well as commercial and operational best practices to boost returns.In July 2021, WillScot completed its merger with Mobile Mini, Inc. and started operating as WillScot Mobile Mini.Price PerformanceShares of WillScot Mobile Mini have surged 89.8% in the past year compared with the Zacks Furniture industry’s 25.4% rally. The company is benefiting from continuous product innovation, solid segmental results as well as transformation of the legacy WillScot business onto Mobile Mini's SAP platform.During the second quarter of 2021, the company’s average modular space units on rent increased 23,372 units or 26.8% year over year. Average portable storage units on rent increased 135,867 units year over year. In both instances, the upside was driven by the Mobile Mini merger. Also, average portable storage monthly rental rate increased $19 or 15.8% to $139 driven by the accretive impact of higher rates from the Mobile Mini portable storage fleet.Furthermore, improved housing market fundamentals in the United States make the near-term outlook of the company encouraging. Historically-low mortgage rates have been driving new home sales, which in turn will drive demand for furniture products in the near term. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchZacks Rank & Key PicksWillScot Mobile Mini carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Some better-ranked stocks in the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector include Adtalem Global Education Inc. ATGE, Hasbro, Inc. HAS and Leggett & Platt, Incorporated LEG, each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Adtalem has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 33.2%, on average.Hasbro has a three-five-year earnings per share growth rate of 17.7%.Leggett 's earnings for 2021 are expected to rise 33.8%.  5 Stocks Set to Double Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2021. Previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%. Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Hasbro, Inc. (HAS): Free Stock Analysis Report Leggett & Platt, Incorporated (LEG): Free Stock Analysis Report WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings Corp. (WSC): Free Stock Analysis Report Adtalem Global Education Inc. (ATGE): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 21st, 2021

B&G Foods (BGS) Hurt by Cost Inflation, Down 10% in 6 Months

B&G Foods (BGS) is encountering coronavirus-related costs for the past few quarters. Also, higher cost inflation is affecting gross margin performance. B&G Foods, Inc. BGS has been grappling with pandemic-induced costs for a while now. Cost inflation is putting pressure on the company’s performance. Apart from this, escalated selling, general and administration (SG&A) expenses are a hurdle for B&G Foods. The company operates in the highly-competitive food industry. Nevertheless, sustained stay-at-home food demand provides a breather.Let’s delve deeper.Factors Hurting B&G Foods’ PerformanceB&G Foods has been encountering coronavirus-related costs for the past few quarters. During second-quarter fiscal 2021, the company incurred COVID-19 expenses of $1.2 million. These costs mainly include temporarily-enhanced compensation for manufacturing employees, compensation paid to manufacturing employees, while in quarantine as well as expenses associated with other precautionary health and safety measures. Prior to this, management incurred nearly $2.9 million in additional pandemic-led costs at its production facilities during the fiscal first quarter.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchAdditionally, SG&A expenses in the fiscal second quarter increased 6.2% to $47.1 million, thanks to a rise in consumer marketing costs, acquisition/divestiture-induced and non-recurring expenses as well as warehousing costs. As a percentage of net sales, SG&A expenses expanded 1.4 percentage points to 10.1%.The Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) company is grappling with higher cost inflation, which affected gross margin performance during the fiscal second quarter.The company’s gross profit fell from $134.1 million to $111.6 million due to higher-than-anticipated input cost inflation, which includes significant rise in raw materials and transportation costs. Gross margin contracted to 24% from 26.2% reported in the year-ago quarter. Management, in its last earnings call, highlighted that it expects to keep seeing significant cost inflation for ingredients, packaging and transportation. Although the company is undertaking various revenue-enhancing and cost-control measures, it is yet to be seen if these initiatives can mitigate such cost-related headwinds.Wrapping UpB&G Foods is seeing more consumers cooking, baking and eating at home compared with the pre-pandemic levels. The company is also benefiting from foodservice recovery as restaurants and eating establishments are reopening. B&G Foods is witnessing improved online sales thanks to high digital shipping penetration. Apart from this, it is actively pursuing strategic acquisitions to boost growth.That being said, let’s see if these upsides can help the company counter the aforementioned hurdles. Shares of B&G Foods have lost 10.4% in the past six months compared with the industry’s 4.3% decline.Better-Ranked Food BetsDarling Ingredients Inc. DAR, currently sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 39.1%, on average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Medifast, Inc. MED, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 16%, on average.Sysco Corporation SYY, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #2, has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.3%, on average. 5 Stocks Set to Double Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2021. Previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%. Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR): Free Stock Analysis Report B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS): Free Stock Analysis Report Sysco Corporation (SYY): Free Stock Analysis Report MEDIFAST INC (MED): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksSep 21st, 2021