Wall Street falls as trade war fears add to virus woes

A slump in technology stocks knocked Wall Street's main indexes lower on Friday, as signs of deteriorating trade relations between the United States and China added to economic worries due to the novel coronavirus pandemic......»»

Category: topSource: reutersMay 15th, 2020

Futures Slide, Commodities Tumble On Chinese Covid Protests

Futures Slide, Commodities Tumble On Chinese Covid Protests US stock futures, and the entire risk complex tumbled on Monday amid growing concerns that China's economic reopening will not only be a disaster but will also be accompanied by violence following protests against Covid restrictions over the weekend. The entire risk complex was sharply lower, with S&P 500 futures down 0.7% as of 7:30 a.m. ET, trading just around 4,000 having dropped as much as 1% earlier, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.9%. Crude crashed to $74, the lowest price since December 2021, while Asian stocks and the yuan plunged. Cryptos also slumped while the dollar and Treasuries ceded earlier gains that were fueled by investors’ dash to safety; the 10Y was last trading at 3.67%.   Among individual movers in premarket trading, Apple fell as much as 1.3% following a report that the turmoil at a key Chinese factory could lead to a production shortfall of close to 6 million iPhone Pro units this year. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks declined, mirroring a fall in the price of Bitcoin. Bank stocks were also lower, putting them on track to snap a five-session winning streak. In corporate news, C.S. Venkatakrishnan, CEO at Barclays, has a form of lymphoma and will undergo treatment for several months. A survey of finance workers has found that some employees are ignoring return-to-work mandates, the latest sign of the challenges firms face in encouraging staff back to the office. Here are the other notable premarket movers: Chinese shares listed in the US declined in premarket trading, with major internet stocks bearing the brunt of a selloff triggered by nationwide protests against Beijing’s Covid Zero policies. Alibaba Group fell 1.5%, slipped 2%; shares of electric car makers Nio and Li Auto also declined. Talkspace shares surge 50% following a report in Israeli newspaper Calcalist that telehealth company American Well is in talks to buy the online therapy platform for ~$1.50 per share, representing a 150% premium to its last closing price. Univar shares jump 11% as analysts say that Brenntag’s plans to acquire its US rival raise questions about the size of any deal and potential implications for an equity raise by the German chemicals distributor. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks decline, mirroring a fall in the price of Bitcoin, as worries over unrest in China and the country’s reopening weigh on risky assets. Coinbase -2.2%, Riot Blockchain -2.3%, Marathon Digital -2.2% Keep an eye on Macau-exposed gaming stocks like Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands (LVS US), Melco Resorts (MLCO US) and MGM Resorts (MGM US) as Wynn Macau and MGM China climbed in Hong Kong, leading gains among six Macau casino operators that were awarded new licenses to continue running their businesses in the gambling hub. Beyond Meat drops 2.9% and Tyson falls 2.1% as both stocks were cut to underweight from equal-weight at Barclays. which says that the majority of protein companies are facing a difficult outlook. Activision Blizzard shares gained 1.3% after being upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Wells Fargo. The video game developer is undervalued regardless of the outcome of the Microsoft merger deal, the broker says Watch shares in online retailers like, Etsy, Shopify, EBay as analysts say that promotions during the Black Friday weekend were higher than last year. The discounts prompt a focus on any impact to retailers’ margins, though some are hoping that the promotions will have been enough to lure in shoppers and help boost sales. Keep an eye on Williams-Sonoma shares as Morgan Stanley downgrades the home furnishings retailer to underweight from equal-weight, saying that earnings revisions could turn “sharply negative” in 2023. Watch Live Nation as its stock was raised to buy from neutral at Citi, with analyst Jason Bazinet saying the risk-reward on the ticket-selling platform is now “more reasonable.” As reported last night, global investor sentiment was hammered after news of the worsening protests affecting cities including Shanghai and Beijing. The latest developments contrast with reports earlier this month that China was toning down its Covid Zero curbs, which had sparked a rally in equities. Modest customer traffic and heavy discounting by American retailers on Black Friday also added to the downbeat tone. "This latest wave of China’s pandemic could disturb global supply chains again, as did the previous wave earlier this year -- that could be inflationary,” analysts at Yardeni Research wrote in a note. “The recent stock market rally on hopes that the government will ease Covid restrictions is running out of steam.” Coming off weekly gains amid bets that the Federal Reserve will scale back interest rate hikes, US stock indexes are looking to cap their second straight month of gains, paring this year’s selloff on concerns over tighter monetary policy and the possibility of a recession. Echoing Michael Wilson's call, Deutsche Bank strategists said they also expect the bear market rally to continue into the first quarter of 2023, but that the risk of an economic contraction will hammer equities in the third quarter. Goldman strategists Christian Mueller-Glissmann and Cecilia Mariotti also said US stocks are in for a wild ride next year as they don’t yet reflect the possibility of a recession. Oil tumbled to the lowest level since December as a wave of unrest in China punished risk assets and clouded the outlook for energy demand, adding to the stresses in an already-volatile global crude market In Europe, the Stoxx 50 dropped 0.7%, the UK's FTSE 100 outperforming peers, dropping 0.3%; Stoxx 600 lags, dropping 0.9%. Energy, real estate and retailers are the worst performing sectors. European energy stocks led declines in Stoxx 600 index on Monday as oil slid to the lowest level since December amid growing protests in China against Covid restrictions, with investors worrying about economic activity and demand for raw materials. The Stoxx Energy sub-index fell 1.8% as of 8:38 a.m. in London, though is still up almost 26% year to date. Here are the biggest European movers: Elior rises as much as 6.7% as Bryan Garnier says a deal where it increases its share capital in exchange for the control of Derichebourg’s multi-services division will boost the French catering company’s earnings-per-share numbers. AB-InBev shares rise as much as 4.5%, outperforming the Stoxx 600 Food, Beverage & Tobacco index (-0.3%), after JPMorgan downgraded the company to overweight. Jet2 Plc rises as much as 4.6% after Stifel raises its price target on expectations that the carrier will “keep delivering profitable market share gains, whatever the economic weather.” Leonardo advances in Milan, as much as 2.8%, after the companies said late on Friday that the Brazilian Army chose the Centauro II armored vehicle made by Iveco and Oto Melara as “top of the list” within a procurement process. Brenntag shares drop as much as 10.6%, the most intraday since November 2015, after analysts said that plans to acquire US rival Univar raise questions about the size of any deal and potential implications for an equity raise by the German chemicals distributor. Persimmon shares fall as much as 4.1% as UBS cuts the UK homebuilder to sell from neutral, saying the group is “losing its mojo.” Evotec drops as much as 3.8% after RBC cut its price target for the German pharmaceutical firm, citing the risk of the company missing its guidance for 2022 Ebitda. Aryzta shares fall as much as 3.3%. ZKB notes volume growth slowed somewhat more than expected even as the baker made a strong start to the new financial year as it performs well in the inflationary environment. The building materials sector will be a “stockpicker’s dream” in 2023, Exane BNP says in a note downgrading its ratings on Kingspan, Rockwool and Travis Perkins. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as growing protests in China over pandemic restrictions and an advance in the dollar hurt demand for risk assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.7% before paring losses by more than half. Gauges in Hong Kong briefly tumbled more than 4% as citizens in major Chinese cities took to the streets to express anger over Covid curbs, complicating the path to reopening.  Adding to pressures on regional shares, the dollar advanced earlier in the session amid worries about growth in the Chinese economy. Equity benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan fell more than 1%, with the latter also hurt by the ruling party’s resounding defeat in island-wide local elections.  “The government, in order to survive, must crack down on any protests,” and this creates a lot of uncertainty, emerging markets investor Mark Mobius told Bloomberg Television, referring to developments in China. But “you can’t go much lower than we already are -- maybe a 5% or 10%” correction in China stocks is likely, he added. Gauges in China and Hong Kong pared losses during afternoon trading as some bets emerged that the social unrest may accelerate an exit from Covid Zero restrictions.  Monday’s declines trimmed the Asian stock benchmark’s November gain to about 12%, but it’s still poised for its best month since 2009. In terms of catalysts, traders are looking ahead to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech Wednesday for clues about the central bank’s next policy decision. Japanese equities also fell amid a broad selloff in the region as unrest in China damped investor sentiment. The Topix Index fell 0.7% to 2,004.31 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei declined 0.4% to 28,162.83. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 1%. Out of 2,164 stocks in the index, 663 rose and 1,417 fell, while 84 were unchanged. “Protests against the Covid Zero policy have two sides,” said Shoji Hirakawa, chief global strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Institute. “If the protests spread further it will be a negative factor, but if the policy changes, it will become a positive factor.” Bucking the global trend, Indian stocks climbed to a new life-time high, with weaker crude oil prices and robust foreign purchases helping local shares to feature among top performers in major Asian markets. The S&P BSE Sensex advanced 0.3% to close at 62,504.80 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index was higher by an equal measure. The Sensex gained for a fifth day, extending this year’s gains to more than 7% and overtaking a 6.6% jump in the Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index. The rally in local shares has come on the back of easing commodity prices, with Brent plunging almost 15% so far this month to its lowest since early January. Foreign investors have also turned buyers of Indian shares, purchasing local equities worth $3 billion so far in November. The surge of Indian stock indexes to new peaks is a function of multiple factors, such as resilient corporate earnings, robust tax collections and a dip in retail inflation, according to Pankaj Pandey, head of research at ICICIdirect. With a drop of about 20% in crude oil prices in the last fortnight, inflation could ease further going forward, said Pandey, who has a 12-month target of 20,000 for the Nifty index. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gave up an earlier gain as the yen rallied by more than 1% against the dollar to touch 137.50. The euro and the Swiss franc also outperformed the greenback, while Commodity currencies, led by the Australian dollar, were the worst Group-of-10 performers.  In rates, Treasuries were narrowly mixed with the curve continuing to flatten, inverted by -80bp and pivoting around a little-changed 10-year yield, amid weakness in oil prices including YTD low for WTI crude futures. 10-year earlier declined as much as 5.9bp to lowest since Oct. 5 as WTI crude futures fell 3.5% on unrest in China; 5- and 3-year yields also declined to lowest levels since early October. Inverted 2s10s curve reached -81.1bp, a new cycle low; flattening trend has support from bigger-than-average index duration extension in month-end rebalancing. Most euro-zone 10-year yields are 3bp-8bp higher on the day. Italian government bonds underperformed bunds. European focus is on ECB speakers including President Christine Lagarde. Gilt curve bear-steepens with 2s10s narrowing 3.8bps. Bund and Treasury bear-flatten. Peripheral spreads are mixed to Germany; Italy widens, Spain widens and Portugal tightens. In commodities, oil tumbled to the lowest level since December as a wave of unrest in China punished risk assets and clouded the outlook for energy demand, adding to the stresses in an already-volatile global crude market. WTI drifts 2.9% lower to trade near $74.05. Brent falls 3.1% near $81.06. Base metals are mixed; LME copper falls 0.3% while LME lead gains 0.6%. Spot gold rises roughly $6 to trade near $1,761/oz. BHP reached an accord with a union to avoid a strike at the Escondida mine in Chile. And W&T Offshore Inc. is among the most active resources stocks in premarket trading, falling 4%. Crude futures decline. Here’s a look at the news that may drive trading in North American resources stocks today: West Texas Intermediate sank toward $74 a barrel following three weeks of losses, while Brent traded around $81. Protests over harsh anti-virus curbs erupted across the world’s largest crude importer over the weekend, including demonstrations in Beijing and Shanghai, spurring a broad sell-off in commodities as the week opened. Commodities tumbled as China’s Covid outbreak worsened and a series of stunning street protests in cities across the nation threaten to derail economic activity and sap demand for energy, food and raw materials. At least $25.7 billion of clean-energy factories are in the works, and the jobs they generate are winning over more Americans to solar, batteries and EVs. Gold rose, erasing earlier declines, as traders weigh growing unrest in China over Covid restrictions and await key US economic data for its bearing on Federal Reserve policy. Looking at today's calendar, it is a relatively quiet day with just the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey on deck. Market Wrap S&P 500 futures down 0.7% to 4,004.75 MXAP down 0.6% to 153.18 MXAPJ down 1.1% to 488.71 Nikkei down 0.4% to 28,162.83 Topix down 0.7% to 2,004.31 Hang Seng Index down 1.6% to 17,297.94 Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,078.55 Sensex up 0.4% to 62,571.65 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,229.14 Kospi down 1.2% to 2,408.27 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 437.11 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.97% Euro up 0.5% to $1.0450 Brent Futures down 2.9% to $81.23/bbl Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,761.51 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.32% to 105.62 Top Asian News Chair Jerome Powell is expected to this week cement expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of interest-rates increases next month, while reminding Americans that its fight against inflation will run into 2023 A sense of chaos and uncertainty swept through Chinese markets on Monday as growing protests against Covid curbs and a record number of infections complicated the nation’s path to reopening The protests that erupted against China’s Covid Zero strategy represent one of the most significant challenges to Communist Party rule since the Tiananmen crisis more than 30 years ago. How Xi Jinping responds to it may end up being just as pivotal for the country’s future Australia has a stronger probability of bringing its economy in for a “soft landing” than almost any other developed- world counterpart, Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe said, citing the nation’s still-contained wage growth ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said risks to the outlook for consumer prices are still skewed to the upside, despite the euro area facing a recession Egypt’s newly flexible currency is still too tame for a market that’s bracing for more disruption ahead The Bank of Japan should conduct a review of policy under a new leadership from next year to make it more flexible, according to former board member Sayuri Shirai, who has been floated as a possible candidate for deputy governor A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded mostly lower with risk appetite sapped by the ongoing COVID-related issues in China where a fresh record number of daily infections were reported and with public unrest brewing after hundreds of people protested throughout the weekend in several major cities including Beijing and Shanghai. ASX 200 was lower with energy leading the declines after oil prices slumped to YTD lows and with sentiment also mired by the surprise contraction in Australian Retail Sales. Nikkei 225 trickled closer towards the 28,000 level with some utility names hit after reports that Japan’s FTC will issue a record fine on three regional power companies for antitrust violations. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured as the PBoC’s recent 25bps RRR cut was overshadowed by the COVID situation in China and with tech also hit after US FCC banned equipment authorisations for Chinese telecommunications and video surveillance equipment deemed to pose a threat to national security, although casino names outperformed after Macau renewed the licences of the six existing operators. Top Asian News Hundreds of demonstrators conducted protests in cities including Beijing and Shanghai to express their discontent against China’s strict COVID measures, while the protests have so far lasted for 3 days, according to BBC and Reuters. China’s Shenzhen announced to limit restaurants and other indoor venues to 50% occupancy and said new arrivals to the city will be barred from entering venues such as theatres and gyms for the first 3 days as part of COVID measures, while it also asked the public to work from home, according to Reuters. Goldman Sachs said China could end its zero-COVID policy before April and earlier than widely expected with some chance of a “disorderly” exit, although it still sees a Q2 exit from zero-COVID as most likely with around a 60% chance. Beijing has vowed to curb rapid increase in COVID cases, according to an official; Guangzhou is to resume public transportation in locked down areas, according to an official. China is set to ease rules on developer bond state guarantees, according to Bloomberg. US FCC banned equipment authorisations for Chinese telecommunications and video surveillance equipment deemed to pose a threat to national security, while the list of companies deemed to pose a threat includes Huawei, ZTE (763 HK) and Hytera Communications (002583 CH), according to Reuters. US Space Force chief said the rapid progress of China's military capabilities poses a growing risks to US superiority in outer space, according to Sky News Arabia and Reuters. Taiwan’s ruling DPP conceded defeat in the key Taipei mayoral election and Taiwanese President Tsai resigned as chairwoman of the ruling party following poor local election results but rejected an offer from Premier Su Tseng-chang to resign. Furthermore, the Chinese government said that the local Taiwan elections showed the mainstream opinion on the island is for peace, stability and a good life, while it will keep working with Taiwan’s people to promote peaceful relations and firmly oppose Taiwan independence, according to Reuters. South Korean Transport Ministry is to meet with the striking truckers’ union on Monday, according to an official cited by Reuters. Cash bourses in Europe hold the downside bias seen across APAC stocks overnight which emanated from China reporting a record increase in COVID cases, whilst social unrest in the country made the headlines over the weekend; Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%. European sectors are in a sea of red and portraying no overarching bias, although some of the defensive sectors are slightly more cushioned than most peers. In early European hours, the ES (-0.9%) gave up the 4,000 level while slight underperformance is present in the tech-laden NQ (-1.0%), as participants look for month-end flows ahead of the US jobs report at the end of the week. Apple (AAPL) is poised to lose 6mln iPhone Pros from the unrest at its Chinese plant, according to Bloomberg. Shipments of smartphones within China declined 4.6% Y/Y to 19.84mln handsets in Sept, according to CAICT. Top European News UK PM Sunak is facing a rebellion from the ruling Conservative party as they seek to force the government to drop the ban on new onshore windfarms, according to Bloomberg. UK housing market stalled in October with house price growth slowing to its lowest quarterly level since February 2020 amid a disastrous mini-budget and the cost of living crisis, according to Reuters citing data from Zoopla. All EU market participant will have to hold "active accounts" at EU clearing houses for "systemically important" financial products, via Reuters citing an EU draft document. ECB's Knot says underlying inflation trends are worrisome, risks to the inflation forecast are entirely tilted to the upside. ECB's Kazimir says there is a growing risk of a recession in the Eurozone, hikes will continue despite unfavourable economic developments. FX Dollar downed as risk aversion favours Yen and others, while month end rebalancing models signal broad selling requirement, DXY under 200 DMA and 105.500, USD/JPY eyeing 137.50 Euro through near term resistance vs Buck around 1.0450 and 100 DMA against the Pound on RHS flow for Wednesday Aussie underperforms after weaker than forecast final retail sales and in sympathy with the Yuan on more Chinese CVOID contagion; AUD/USD heavy on 0.6700 handle, USD/CNH probes 7.2500 before pullback Loonie and Nokkie undermined by collapse in crude prices, as USD/CAD rebounds through 1.3400 and EUR/NOK beyond 10.3500 PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1617 vs exp. 7.1695 (prev. 7.1339) Fixed Income Haven bid in bonds fades as Bunds retreat over 100 ticks from 141.42 Eurex peak, Gilts towards 107.00 after matching last Friday's 107.66 high and T-note between 113-17/113-02+ parameters. BTPs underperform within wide 120.26-118.87 extremes on domemstic supply grounds. Commodities WTI and Brent Jan futures have been under pressure since the reopening of futures trading, with Brent beneath USD 82/bbl for the first time since January (80.61-83.93/bbl daily range) and WTI printing a YTD low (73.60-76.49/bbl range) after Chinese daily COVID infections rose by a fresh record Spot gold has been gaining in tandem with the losses in the US Dollar with the yellow metal gaining above USD 1,750/oz but still under November's high of around USD 1,786/oz. Base metals are mixed, with the initial China-induced downside overnight somewhat trimmed/cancelled out by a slide in the USD, with 3M LME copper trading on either side of USD 8,000/t. US Treasury Department is to issue a licence to allow Chevron to import Venezuelan crude oil to the US, while the licences will allow Chevron to take part in oil activities in Venezuela that were previously banned by the US and also permit them to send products to Venezuela needed to refine heavy crude into exportable grades. Furthermore, the licence is time-limited to 6 months and can be revoked if President Maduro does not negotiate in good faith or follow through on commitments, according to Reuters. Iraq’s SOMO said the OPEC+ cut decision in October didn’t decrease Iraq’s crude exports and the decision to cut helps maintain market stability. Iraq also stated that it produces 11% of total OPEC+ output and noted that the upcoming meeting will take into account current market conditions, while it sees oil prices to range USD 85-95/bbl next year, according to Reuters. It was also reported that Iraq’s OPEC representative said the country will increase oil capacity by 150k-250k BPD by 2023 and that Iraq will add 1mln-1.5mln BPD of oil export capacity by 2025. Kuwait’s KPIC shipped the first shipment of aviation jet fuel from the Al Zour refinery to UAE and Oman. BP’s (BP/ LN) Rotterdam refinery is resuming some operations after being idle for a week amid a pay dispute with workers, according to Reuters. Norway’s Gassco decreased the unplanned gas outage impact at fields delivering into Segal which was revised to a decline of 12.0 MCM/day from a decline of 14.9 MCM/day, according to Reuters. UAE's ADNOC is reportedly to cut 5% of December's crude oil supply to some term-lifters in Asia, citing the operational tolerance clause, via Reuters citing sources; but, will provide full contractual volumes for January. Geopolitics Russian Defence Ministry said nine Russian prisoners of war were released as part of a prisoner exchange with Ukraine on Saturday, according to Reuters citing Russian news agencies. Energoatom President said there have been signs in recent weeks that Russians may be preparing to leave the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, according to Pravda. UK military intelligence said Russia is likely removing nuclear warheads from ageing nuclear cruise missiles and firing unarmed munitions at Ukraine which highlights a depletion in its stock of missiles, according to Reuters. UK PM Sunak said Britain will stand with Ukraine for as long as needed and will maintain or increase military aid to Ukraine next year, while he also stated that Britain needs to stand up to competitors 'not with grand rhetoric but with robust pragmatism', according to Reuters. Senior Ukrainian government sources inform Mapl+ that Moscow is "ready to withdraw some heavy equipment such as tanks and artillery", according to Mail's Franey. In the context of the Zaporizhzhia plant North Korean leader Kim ordered to promote officials and scientists responsible for nuclear forces and said that building the nuclear force is the most important cause, while their ultimate goal is to possess the world’s most powerful strategic force. Kim added that recent ICBM launches demonstrated their firm resolution and decisive ability to build the world’s strongest army, while its new ICBM clearly proved that North Korea is a full-fledged nuclear power and can withstand the supremacy of the US. Furthermore, Kim said scientists have made a ‘wonderful leap forward’ in technology for mounting nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles and should continue to expand and strengthen the nuclear deterrent at an extraordinary pace, according to KCNA. US Event Calendar 10:30: Nov. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -22.0, prior -19.4 Central Banks 12:00: Fed’s Williams Speaks to the Economic Club of New York 12:00: Fed’s Bullard Takes Part in MarketWatch Live Event DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap As we start a new week that will introduce us to December, the big story over the weekend has been the unrest in China around the handling of Covid restrictions with multiple protests and demonstrations reported across the country on mainstream and social media. This seems to be the most serious of President Xi's decade long tenure. In terms of Covid-19 cases, the ongoing outbreak remains elevated as the nation reported a record high of 40,052 local cases on Sunday up from 39,506 a day earlier. The story is dominating Asian markets this morning. As I type, the Hang Seng (1.98%) is leading losses with the CSI (-1.58%) and the Shanghai Composite (1.03%) also sliding. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.95%) and the Nikkei (-0.52%) are also weak. Outside of Asia, DM stock futures are also soft with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.65%), the NASDAQ 100 (-0.83%) and the DAX (-0.50%) all lower. Meanwhile, 10yr USTs yields (-5.16 bps) have moved sharply lower for an overnight session trading at 3.63% with the 2s10s curve further inverting to -80.37 bps as we go to press. Elsewhere, oil prices are also lower in early Asian trade with Brent Crude (-2.79%) t $81.30/bbl and WTI (-2.95%) $74.02/bbl as demand fears from China are back in focus. Over in the US, initial Black Friday weekend retail sales numbers are coming through. For example Adobe have said that Americans spent a record $9.12 billion online this Black Friday. The $9.12 billion figure is up 2.3% from previous year’s $8.92 billion and $9.03 billion in 2020. Clearly with inflation running between 7-9% this year that could be seen as a spending recession depending on how you want to spin it. Today is the usually very busy Cyber Monday so we’ll see what that brings. Looking forward to the week now, it’s a big few days for US employment data, building to a crescendo with payrolls on Friday. We'll also get the latest PCE inflation reading and the ISM manufacturing print. Elsewhere, European CPI releases will also be front and centre as inflation and recession risks in the currency bloc weigh on the ECB. In Asia, all eyes will be on China's PMIs and several key economic activity indicators from Japan. We will also hear from a number of key central bank officials, including Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde. Going through the highlights in more detail and there’s only one place to start, and that is with payrolls. This will be the last one before the FOMC on December 13-14th. Our US economists expect a +200k print in November, down from +261k in October, and the unemployment rate to tick back down to 3.6%. Earnings are forecast to grow +0.3%, decelerating from October's +0.4%. Prior to Friday we have the latest JOLTS report and ADP reports on Wednesday. In terms of the former, it’s long been our favoured measure of labour market tightness but it’s always a month behind other measures so as we approach a turning point in the labour market it might be tough to use it as a lead indicator. Our economists are focused on the micro of the report and recent evidence of less labour market tightness has been a little less evident under the surface given various sector mismatches. See their report here "Why the JOLTS data are not as encouraging as they appear" for more on that. Rounding off the important labour market clues, tomorrow’s Conference Board's confidence measure on Tuesday will include the jobs-plentiful / jobs hard-to-get differential, which has historically been highly correlated with the unemployment rate. Our economists highlight that after peaking at 47.1 in March, consumer views on the labour market have cooled a bit with the differential falling to 32.5 in October. While the October level is still very healthy and in line with the near-recordlow unemployment rate, we need to see how quickly this now deteriorates for clues on the turn in the labour market. Within Thursday's personal income (DB at Unch. vs. +0.4% last month) and consumption (DB at +0.7% vs. +0.6%) report the latest reading on the core PCE deflator will be a big release for Fed expectations. Given what we know from the CPI and PPI data earlier this month, our economists expect core PCE inflation to come in at 0.2% (vs. 0.5% previously). If their forecast is correct, the year-over-year rate will begin to fall, dropping a tenth to 5.0%. While only a small decrease in the yearover-year rate’s September peak, this would be the fourth lowest monthly core PCE print since the beginning of 2021, so it may help cement 50bps over 75bps in two weeks' time. Business activity-related indicators due out include the manufacturing ISM index on Thursday. Our US economists expect the indicator to slip into contractionary territory (49.8 vs 50.2 in October) for the first time since the Covid depths in May 2020. The day before, we get the Chicago PMI (DB forecast 47.3 vs 45.2 in October) and the advance goods trade balance (DB forecast -$91.0bn vs -$92.2bn in September). In Europe, the November CPI reports from across the Eurozone on TuesdayWednesday will be among the key data this week. As a reminder, the bloc-wide measure is now at 10.6%, the highest ever, in a sharp contrast to the US where the latest CPI (7.7%) is more than a percentage point below its recent peak (9.1%). With few indicators pointing to a significant slowdown in price increases for Europe, this week's print may keep up the pressure on the ECB to fight inflation despite growth concerns. In fact, as our European economists point out in their review of central bank's monetary policy accounts (link here) released this week, contrary to markets' initial perception, there was little dovishness in last meeting's message. The team is calling for a +50bps hike in December but acknowledging upside risks, especially if this week's prints come in above expectations. We will also get the PPI and consumer spending for France, the PPI and the manufacturing PMI from Italy, as well as confidence indicators for the Eurozone throughout the week. Over in Asia, all eyes will be on November PMIs from China on Wednesday and Thursday, with the Bloomberg consensus pointing to an unchanged manufacturing PMI on Wednesday (49.2) and a slight drop in the Caixin PMI on Thursday (48.9 vs 49.2). See the day-by-day week ahead for the full diary of events this week. Recapping last week now, developments over the holiday-shortened week skewed towards impending recession fears, which drove global sovereign yield curves flatter but equities held up well. We had rising Covid cases and renewed restrictions in China, renewed fears over the energy supply to Europe (European natural gas futures climbed +8.30% over the week), contractionary PMIs across the developed world, while Fed staff noted in minutes to the November meeting that a recession was now likely pretty much their base case for next year. Sovereign 2s10s curves flattened across the US, Germany, and the UK. 2yr Treasury yields were -8.0bps lower (-2.5bps Friday), while 10yr yields fell -15.1bps (-1.5bps Friday), with the curve ending the week at -78bps, its most inverted since the early 1980s. In Germany, 2yr Bunds increased +9.0bps (+8.3bps Friday) while 10yr yields fell -4.0bps (+12.4bps Friday). And in the UK 2yr Gilts climbed +11.4bps (+8.4bps Friday) in contrast to 10yr Gilts which fell -11.7bps (+8.5bps Friday). The growth fears stoked a renewed bout of central bank pivot optimism, which buoyed equities over the week. The S&P 500 increased +1.53% (-0.03% Friday), the STOXX 600 was up +1.71% (-0.05% Friday), and the DAX lagged, climbing just +0.76% (-0.02% Friday). The biggest underperformers were Chinese equities following a surge in Covid cases which drove renewed lockdown measures. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon index fell -5.96% in response (-3.28% Friday). Tyler Durden Mon, 11/28/2022 - 08:07.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nyt15 hr. 24 min. ago

Futures Slide On China Covid Curb Concerns; Disney Jumps After Chapek Fired

Futures Slide On China Covid Curb Concerns; Disney Jumps After Chapek Fired After opening modestly in the green, US equity futures have drifted steadily lower all session and were last trading near their Monday lows as concerns that China may tighten Covid curbs after China reported its first Covid-related death in almost six months and a city near Beijing rumored to be a test case for dropping all curbs enforced a slew of restrictions all weighed on growth in the world’s second-largest economy, as well as the ongoing carnage in the crypto space. At 7:30am ET, S&P futures were down 0.5% to 3,953 while Nasdaq 100 futures slumped 0.9% to session lows, below 11,600. The dollar stormed higher as investors sought shelter in the dollar; 10Y yields rose to 3.83%, while bitcoin traded around $16,000 after dumping over the weekend. Oil dipped but rebounded from session lows on concern of a weakening demand outlook from China and following a $10 price target cut to $100 for Q4 2022 from Goldman overnight. US-listed Chinese stocks including Alibaba, Baidu and fell in US premarket trading after China saw its first Covid-related death in almost six months, sparking concern that Beijing could see a return of heightened restrictions on schools, restaurants and shops amid a continuing outbreak in the capital. Worsening outbreaks across the nation are stoking concerns that authorities may again resort to harsh restrictions. A city near Beijing that was rumored to be a test case for the ending of virus restrictions has suspended schools, locked down universities and asked residents to stay at home for five days. Elsewhere in premarket moves, Walt Disney shares soared 8% after the firm fired embattled CEO Bob Iger and brought back former leader Bob Iger as chief executive officer, a surprise capitulation by the board after a string of disappointing results. Cryptocurrency-related stocks declined after the price of Bitcoin retreated amid worries over contagion from the downfall of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire. Shares in Riot Blockchain -4.5%, Marathon Digital  -3.1%, Coinbase -4.6%. Squarespace shares gained 2.2% after being upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Sandler, which identifies the website- building and hosting company as having the lowest risk to its 2023 numbers among e-commerce stocks. "Markets got their hopes up that the Chinese government might loosen its Covid policy, but despite the slowing economy, there is little chance of that," said Joachim Klement, head of strategy, accounting and sustainability at Liberum Capital. “This is going to be bad for commodity-related stocks as well as luxury companies and other exporters to China.” However, others like Morgan Stanley, remain hopeful and expect that China will end Covid zero in a few months; in its base case the bank sees China reopening by April as shown below. "Financial markets have caught a cold amid worries that mounting Covid cases in China and a fresh tightening of restrictions will send a fresh shiver through manufacturing output and push down demand for raw materials," said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. As Bloomberg notes, trading will be slow this week, with the US market closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and open for a half day on Friday. Meanwhile, Goldman strategists warned that the bear market had more room to run and that stocks were likely to see more declines and lower valuations in 2023. "The conditions that are typically consistent with an equity trough have not yet been reached,” strategists including Peter Oppenheimer and Sharon Bell wrote in a note on Monday. They said that a peak in interest rates and lower valuations reflecting recession are necessary before any sustained stock-market recovery can happen. After a sharp rally fueled by signs of cooling inflation, US stocks were subdued last week as Federal Reserve officials indicated they need to see a meaningful slowdown in prices before reducing the pace of their interest rate increases. The big event for the market this week comes Wednesday, when the central bank releases minutes from its latest policy meeting, possibly providing clues on when it will shift to less-aggressive rate hikes. In Europe, the Stoxx 50 index fell 0.5%, with the IBEX outperforming peers, adding 0.4%, while FTSE MIB lags, dropping 1%. Miners, tech and chemicals are the worst-performing sectors. Here are the notable European movers: Virgin Money UK shares rose as much 16%, the most in two years, after the British lender announced an extension of its share buyback program and reported earnings that analysts said could prompt upgrades in profit forecasts. Ipsen rose as much as 4.5%, to the highest since April, after JPMorgan said the stock may get a boost from clinical trial data on its Onivyde and elafibranor drugs in 2023. Rheinmetall shares jumped as much as 3.7% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the defense and automotive company to buy from hold and Berenberg raised its PT on the stock. Diploma shares gained as much as 3.3% after the seals and components distributor reported full-year revenue that beat analyst estimates. Next and Boohoo fell after they were both downgraded to hold from buy at Panmure. The broker cited inventory challenges for UK apparel retailers more broadly as demand has fallen in the UK clothing market since early October. Next fell as much as 1.9% while Boohoo dropped 7%; M&S and Asos also fell. Shares in Vallourec dropped as much as 13% in Paris trading after the steel and alloy tubing group announced third- quarter results that fell short of analyst expectations. Shares in IT services firm Bechtle fell as much as 5.4% after Exane downgraded the stock to neutral, citing concern about how margins will be affected by wage inflation and cost increases. SGS shares fell as much as 3.6%. The testing and inspection firm was cut to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan, with the broker saying shares look “mispriced.” Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also declined, with Hong Kong leading losses, as investors assessed the outlook for China’s reopening while continuing to monitor the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.2%. Chinese technology stocks were the biggest drags on the gauge, also driving the Hang Seng Index down almost 2%, after fresh reports of Covid deaths and lockdowns in China. Malaysian shares pared losses as a deadline for party leaders to name a prime minister was extended after Saturday’s election produced the country’s first-ever hung parliament. Benchmarks across Asia Pacific also fell, while the dollar strengthened, as Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins reiterated the likelihood of large US interest-rate hikes, with the outlook for inflation still uncertain. US stocks had risen recently on hopes for a slower pace of tightening. “After the recent good US consumer and producer price inflation reports, it was easy to conclude that there are much better times ahead in the asset markets,” said Gary Dugan, chief executive officer at the Global CIO Office in a note. “It just won’t be that easy.” Asian stocks had been rebounding as well, gaining as much as 15% from a trough in October, helped also by hopes for reduced restrictions in China. The advance started to falter last week amid lingering doubts over China’s reopening and US rate policy India’s major stock indexes posted their biggest decline in more than a month, tracking weaker global markets and as shares of Reliance Industries and index-heavy software makers slipped.   The S&P BSE Sensex closed 0.8% lower at 61,144.84 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index eased by an equal measure. Both indexes posted their biggest single-day slump since Oct. 11, with the Sensex now trading 1.3% off its recent peak. Global stocks fell amid concern that China may tighten Covid curbs after a string of reported deaths. Worsening outbreaks across the nation are stoking concerns that authorities may again resort to harsh restrictions.  All but two of the 19 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. traded lower, led by information technology companies. In FX, the dollar gained as fears of a return to stricter Covid containment measures in China boosted demand for havens. The Bloomberg dollar spot index rises 0.7%. CHF and CAD are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, SEK and JPY underperform. The yen plunged by more than 1% dropping as low as 142 per dollar. The Japanese currency held up well throughout most of the Asian session, but began a steep slide shortly before European session began. The euro fell by as much as 1% versus the dollar, the biggest slide this month, to touch $1.0226.  The Australian dollar and Swedish krona were also among the worst performers It’s not unusual for implied volatility to trail realized in the currency market, especially at times when key risk events like central bank policy meetings are far ahead on the calendar. When it comes to the euro-dollar pair, options are underpriced across the curve, with striking moves on the one- and six-month tenors New Zealand dollar short-dated FX option volatility advanced as pricing for a 75- basis-point hike in the official cash rate holds at 60%, two days out from the decision In rates, Treasuries were mixed with the belly of the curve underperforming, cheapening 2s5s30s fly by 3.2bp on the day. Wider losses were seen across gilts where the front-end underperforms.  Treasury yields were cheaper by 0.5bp across belly and richer by 1.5bp across long-end of the curve, flattening 5s30s spread by 1.5bp on the day -- reaching as low as -10.9bp and tightest since Nov. 7. The US 10-year yields around 3.825% and slightly richer on the day;  gilts lag by additional 1.5bp in the sector. US session focus includes double auction event for 2- and 5-year notes while Daly is expected to speak in the afternoon.  The gilts curve bear-flattens with 2s10s narrowing 2.3bps, while the Bund curve bear-steepens. Peripheral spreads are mixed to Germany; Italy widens, Spain and Portugal tighten. In commodities, WTI and Brent are lower by around USD 0.50/bbl or 0.50% on the session, but have lifted from earlier lows and as such are some way from Friday's base. The crude complex was weighed by China's COVID controls, with a stronger US dollar also impacting and adding to the broader complex's woes. Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 Brent oil outlook by USD 10/bbl to $100/bbl due to China COVID concerns, while it sees elevated oil flows from China ahead of EU curbs and a price cap; $ forecasts Brent to recovery to USD 110/bbl in 2023, expects oil demand to increase at an above trend rate of circa. 1.6mln BPD in 2023. Spot gold/silver are unable to glean any haven-related upside in wake of the USDs strength, with the yellow metal over $10/oz below the USD 1751/oz 10-DMA despite briefly surpassing the figure overnight; base metals similar dented. Cryptocurrency prices struggled in the ongoing crisis sparked by the downfall of Sam Bankman-Fried’s once powerful FTX empire. Crypto-exposed stocks fell. It's a quiet start to the holiday-shortened week, with just the October Chicago Fed national activity index due at 830am. We get earnings from Zoom; On the Fed speaker slate, Fed's Daly talks on price stability. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 3,950.25 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 432.60 MXAP down 1.2% to 150.77 MXAPJ down 1.4% to 487.13 Nikkei up 0.2% to 27,944.79 Topix up 0.3% to 1,972.57 Hang Seng Index down 1.9% to 17,655.91 Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,085.04 Sensex down 0.9% to 61,121.88 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,139.25 Kospi down 1.0% to 2,419.50 German 10Y yield up 1% to 2.03% Euro down 0.9% to $1.0230 Brent Futures down 0.7% to $86.97/bbl Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,739.61 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.86% to 107.85 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Asset managers are turning ever more bearish on the dollar amid bets that the Federal Reserve may be approaching the peak of its interest-rate hike cycle Investors are slowly coming to terms with the sheer size of the UK government’s borrowing needs over the next few years and it doesn’t look pretty The PBOC net drained 2b yuan ($421m) via its open-market operations on Monday for the first time since Nov. 9, as a selloff in government and corporate bonds eased China’s financial regulators have asked banks to stabilize lending to property developers and construction firms, the latest effort by policymakers to turn around the real-estate crisis and bolster economic growth More than two years of growth-squelching policies sent international investors fleeing China. It’s taken all of two weeks to lure them back Sam Bankman-Fried’s bankrupt crypto empire owes its 50 biggest unsecured creditors a total of $3.1 billion, new court papers show, with a pair of customers owed more than $200 million each A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks began the week mostly lower amid headwinds from China after several areas announced fresh virus restrictions including lockdowns and the country also reported its first COVID-19 deaths in about six months. ASX 200 was constrained by underperformance in the mining-related sectors amid a decline in commodity prices and with BHP shares pressured amid reports its chairman is considering retiring next year. Nikkei 225 lacked direction amid further political tremors in the Kishida government after Internal Affairs Minister Terada resigned due to involvement in a funding scandal and was the third cabinet member to step down in under a month. KOSPI declined amid geopolitical concerns after North Korea's recent missile launches and with sentiment subdued as data for the first 20 days of November showed exports fell 16.7% Y/Y and imports fell 5.5% Y/Y. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp suffered losses due to the worsening COVID situation in the mainland, while the Hong Kong benchmark was the worst hit with the special administrative region said to be near to cutting non-emergency services at public hospitals amid a surge in COVID cases and its Chief Executive Lee also tested positive for COVID-19. Furthermore, the PBoC maintained its key lending rates with the 1-Year and 5-Year LPR kept at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively, although this was widely expected. Top Asian News China reported 2,365 (prev. 2,267) new coronavirus cases in the mainland on November 20th, 24,730 (prev. 22,168) new asymptomatic cases and 2 COVID deaths, which follows its first COVID-related death in six months on Saturday. Beijing’s Chaoyang district urged residents to remain at home on Monday as cases continue to rise, according to Reuters. It was also reported that the Baiyun district in China's Guangzhou imposed a 5-day lockdown from November 21st-25th and China's Shijiazhuang city is to conduct mass coronavirus testing in certain areas. Beijing City has tightened testing requirements for travellers entering Beijing, according to an official; will now require 3 PCR tests in 3 days upon arrival, via Reuters. Hong Kong is near to cutting non-emergency services at public hospitals again amid a surge in COVID cases, according to SCMP. It was also reported that Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee tested positive for COVID-19. Taiwan’s representative at APEC Morris Chang said he had a very happy interaction with Chinese President Xi during a brief meeting, according to Reuters. US VP Harris met with Chinese President Xi briefly at APEC and she noted to Xi that they must maintain open lines of communication to responsibly manage the competition between their countries, according to a White House official. Furthermore, Harris said that the US does not seek conflict or confrontation and welcomes competition, while she added that her Asia trip signifies the significance of the relationship between the US and its allies and partners in the region, according to Reuters. US House GOP leader McCarthy said he will form a select committee on China if he is elected as House Speaker, according to Reuters. Germany plans to tighten disclosure rules for companies exposed to China and plans to assess company disclosures to decide whether they should conduct stress tests on China risks, according to a draft document cited by Reuters. APEC leaders’ declaration affirmed the commitment to promote strong, balanced, secure sustainable and inclusive growth and stated that they are determined to uphold and further strengthen the rules-based multilateral trading system, while they welcomed progress this year in advancing the free-trade area of the Asia-Pacific. Furthermore, APEC is determined to achieve a post-COVID economic recovery and recognised that more intensive efforts are needed to address challenges such as rising inflation, food security, climate change and natural disasters, according to Reuters. Japanese PM Kishida accepted the resignation of Internal Affairs Minister Terada in order to prioritise parliamentary debate and which follows the latter’s involvement in funding scandals, while it was later reported that Japan appointed former Foreign Minister Matsumoto as the new Internal Affairs Minister, according to Reuters. European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%, as China's COVID crackdowns weighs on sentiment in an otherwise limited European morning. Sectors feature a defensive bias with those most sensitive to renewed COVID controls posting modest underperformance. Stateside, futures are similarly pressured, ES -0.6%, given the above headwinds with the US docket slim today at the start of a holiday shortened week. Goldman Sachs equity strategy: bear market is not over, continue to think near-term path is likely to be volatile and down before reaching a final trough in 2023, via Reuters. Top European News ECB's Lane says (when questioned on the increment of upcoming hikes) "what matters is the level we're going to arrive at. The exact allocation across different meetings is a secondary issue", via ECB. Does not think December is going to be the last rate hike, "The logic of a pause for the ECB: we’re not at that point". UK PM Sunak will be urged by businesses on Monday to seek better EU relations and will face pressure from businesses to soften the impact of Brexit such as by opening doors to more immigration to fill holes in the nation's labour market, according to FT. UK was reportedly considering Swiss-style ties with the EU and the government believes that EU relations are thawing which could lead to 'frictionless' trade, according to The Times. However, UK Health Minister Barclay said he did not recognise a report that the government wants to shift to a Swiss-style relationship with the EU, according to Reuters. FX Dollar benefits from short squeeze amidst latest bout of China-related risk aversion, DXY eyes 108.000 from 106.890 low. Yen sinks alongside Yuan, towards 142.00 after breach of 100 DMA near 141.00. Euro loses 1.0300+ status as Buck bounces and overshadows hawkish-leaning ECB commentary and firm rebound in EGB yields. Aussie undermined by deteriorating Chinese COVID situation, but Kiwi holds up better in hope of hawkish RBNZ hike on Wednesday; AUD/USD hovers on 0.6600 handle, NZD/USD hangs above 0.6100. Sterling loses Fib support just over 1.1800 after failing to breach round number above convincingly. Fixed Income Despite pronounced action earlier on, core fixed benchmarks are in relative proximity to the unchanged mark with Bunds just 20 ticks lower overall. Bunds were bid on a surprising MM domestic PPI decrease; however, ECB's Lane then pushed the complex back down before the latest Beijing, China updates saw that downside dissipate to leave the benchmark only modestly softer. Stateside, USTs have been directionally in-fitting though magnitudes slightly more contained ahead of a holiday-thinned weak and with two lots of supply due later. Commodities Crude benchmarks are weighed on by China's COVID controls, with a stronger USD also impacting and adding to the broader complex's woes. Specifically, WTI and Brent are lower by around USD 0.50/bbl or 0.50% on the session, but have lifted from earlier lows and as such are some way from Friday's base. BP (BP/ LN) - Stopped production at its Rotterdam Refinery (400k BPD), been taken "completely and safely out of operation". Follows reports via Bloomberg on Friday of a serious incident re. a steam outage, via BP. Subsequently, workers will not assist in restarting operations at the Rotterdam refinery (400k BPD) unless their wage demands are met, via Union. A large explosion reportedly hit Russia’s Gazprom pipeline amid suspicions of sabotage related to Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to the Daily Mail. Kuwait’s oil revenues for FY21/22 rose 84.5% Y/Y to KWD 16.33bln, according to the Finance Ministry. US VP Harris said the US will use its APEC host year to set new ambitious sustainability goals and she proposed setting a new aggregate target for reducing carbon emissions from the power sector in APEC, while she also proposed to set a goal for reducing methane emissions and said the US will introduce a new initiative on a just energy transition, according to a White House official cited by Reuters. UN climate agency published a new COP27 cover decision draft deal text and approved a proposal covering funding arrangements loss and damage from climate change suffered by vulnerable countries. However, it was also reported that EU climate policy chief Timmermans said the deal is not enough of a step forward and that the mitigation programme agreement allows some parties to hide from their commitments, while he added that too many parties are not ready to make more progress, according to Reuters. Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 Brent oil outlook by USD 10/bbl to USD 100/bbl due to China COVID concerns, while it sees elevated oil flows from China ahead of EU curbs and a price cap; UBS forecasts Brent to recovery to USD 110/bbl in 2023, expects oil demand to increase at an above trend rate of circa. 1.6mln BPD in 2023. Russia is now the largest fertiliser supplier to India for the first time as it provides discounts, according to Reuters sources. China's NDRC is to lower retail prices of gasoline and diesel by CNY 175/tonne and CNY 165/tonnes respectively as of November 22nd. Spot gold/silver are unable to glean any haven-related upside in wake of the USDs strength, with the yellow metal over USD 10/oz below the USD 1751/oz 10-DMA despite briefly surpassing the figure overnight; base metals similar dented. Geopolitics IAEA said powerful explosions shook the area of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on Saturday evening and Sunday morning with more than a dozen blasts heard within a short period during the morning. It was also reported that Ukraine’s Energoatom said Russia's military shelled the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on Sunday morning and that there were at least 12 hits on the plant’s infrastructure facilities, while Russia’s Defence Ministry said Ukraine fired shells at power lines supplying the nuclear power plant, according to Reuters and TASS. US Defense Secretary Austin said Russia is carrying out atrocities in Ukraine and said that ‘these aren’t just lapses’, while he added that China, like Russia, is seeking a world where ‘might makes right’. Austin said autocrats like Russian President Putin are watching the Ukraine conflict and could seek nuclear weapons, while he added autocrats could conclude obtaining ‘nuclear weapons would give them a hunting licence of their own’, according to Reuters. UK PM Sunak told Ukrainian President Zelensky that the UK will provide a GBP 50mln air defence package to Ukraine which will include 125 anti-aircraft guns and technology to counter Iranian-supplied drones, according to Reuters. Russian President Putin spokesperson says there is no discussion in the Kremlin of a fresh wave of military mobilisation, via Reuters. German Defence Ministry spokesperson says air policing is being discussed with Poland, via Reuters. US Event Calendar 08:30: Oct. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.03, prior 0.10 Central Bank speakers 13:00: Fed’s Daly Talks on Price Stability A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of DB's Jim Reid This morning my new credit strategy team and I have just published our 2023 credit outlook. Our view on the terminal rate for 2023 credit spreads and peak level 2024 defaults hasn’t changed much since we last updated our spread targets in April, when we became the first bank to warn of a tough 2023 US recession. In this outlook, we slightly increase our targets and see YE ‘23 spreads for EUR and USD IG hitting 245bps and 235bps, and EUR and USD HY hitting 930bps and 860bps, respectively. This is a widening from current levels of +53bps, +100bps, +400bps and +410bps, respectively. Our full-year total return forecasts for EU IG is 1.6%, USD IG -0.2%, USD HY -3.3% and EUR HY -4.4%. A lack of near-term maturities will limit 2023 defaults, but our models highlight that leverage is 2x more important than maturity walls at explaining historical default patterns. We forecast YE'23 defaults in USD HY of 4.5%, USD Loans of 5.6%, EUR HY of 2.2%, and EUR Loans of 3.7%. But by 2H’24, we forecast peak defaults in USD HY of 9%, USD Loans of 11.3%, EUR HY of 4.3% and EUR loans of 7.1%. Indeed loans worry us more than high-yield bonds in 2023. We see USD loans returning -10.8% over FY'23 as defaults rise and CLO demand is impaired from future downgrades. In the near-term, European credit should continue to outperform US credit, as event risk in the region falls with spreads still wide to the US. Our bearishness gathers momentum later in 2023. Indeed, the major 2023 theme will be the likely US recession in H2. Whether this happens and how severe it is will make or break 2023. In some ways we feel that this has been a pretty easy US cycle to predict as it's been an old fashioned boom-and-bust cycle. Half the 66 economists who forecast the US economy on Bloomberg now predict at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth for 2023 (albeit mildly negative). Has there ever been such a large number predicting a recession from a starting point of not being in one? The worry we would have is that economists’ models seldom predict a recession. So if they now do, that speaks volumes. The risk is that if and when it arrives, it creates systemic risk from somewhere in the over-levered / illiquid financial system. Something normally breaks when the Fed hikes. So the main driver of 2023 view is the combination of still relatively high rates, a tough US recession, and what crisis that might subsequently trigger. If we’re wrong on the US recession call, or if it is mild and without systemic risk, then we will be wrong on our forecasts. We suspect most readers will hope we are. See the full report here. Hopefully this new report won't distract you from the World Cup. I've drawn Argentina and Poland in the office sweepstake which will distract me from England's likely stressful journey through the tournament, however long it lasts. The start of the World Cup coincides with Thanksgiving week so it will be the usual compressed few days of activity. The FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and the ECB's account of their last meeting (Thursday) will be the key macro events. Focus will likely be on their thinking about the terminal rate (both) and QT plans (ECB), with both now more likely to hike 50bps than 75bps in December. We will also see global flash PMIs on Wednesday. Other data will include an array of business activity indicators, including durable goods orders in the US. Indeed, Wednesday is a US data dump ahead of Thanksgiving and we will also see the final UoM consumer confidence data which includes the inflation expectations revision which is important. Claims also comes a day early. The Fed speakers last week helped prompt a big flattening of the US curve as they generally hinted towards a terminal rate of above 5%. As such before we see the FOMC minutes, tomorrow sees three Fed speakers who might add to the debate. They are all hawks (Mester, George and Bullard) though and have all spoken since the FOMC so the market should know their biases. Over the weekend, the Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (non-voter) opined that he believes that the Fed can slow the pace of rate hikes and feels that the Fed's target policy rate need not rise more than 1 percentage point to tackle inflation and help ensure a soft landing. Boston Fed Collins also spoke but kept all options open. Lastly, with only around 20 S&P 500 firms left to report earnings this season, this week's results line-up will be tech-heavy and feature a number of large Chinese firms. These include Baidu (Tuesday), Xiaomi (Wednesday) and Meituan (Friday). In the US, we will hear from Zoom today and Analog Devices, Autodesk and HP tomorrow. Risk aversion has resurfaced across Asian equity markets this morning with fresh China COVID-19 fears after the nation witnessed its first Covid-related death in 6 months on Saturday with two more following on Sunday, sparking concerns that Beijing would reimpose strict Covid curbs even as they consider longer-term reopenings. As I type, the Hang Seng (-2.09%) is the largest underperformer with the Shanghai Composite (-0.81%), the CSI (-1.30%) and the KOSPI (-1.11%) all slipping. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.02%) has been wavering between gains and losses. In overnight trading, stock futures in the DMs are pointing to a weak start with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.29%), NASDAQ 100 (-0.24%) and the DAX (-0.37%) trading in the red. Meanwhile, yields on the 2 and 10yr USTs are -2.5bps and -4.1bps lower, respectively, with the curve now at -72.6bps, a fresh four decade low. Coming back to China, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) left its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the third straight month, maintaining its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.65%, while the five-year LPR (a reference for mortgages) was kept intact at 4.30%. With the authorities recently extending more support to property developers, the possibility of additional easing seems less likely from the central bank. In energy markets, oil prices are continuing their recent decline amid China demand concerns. Brent crude futures are down -1.02% at $86.73/bbl with WTI (-1.09%) just below $80/bbl. Reviewing last week now, US yields and equities sold off while European counterparts rallied, though the moves in equities in particular were small despite another week filled with macro news. Starting on rates, Fed Vice Chair Brainard kept to the company line in outlining a likely step down to +50bp hikes starting in December, but, unlike her colleagues, did not explicitly tie the slower pace with a higher terminal rate. Regional Fed Presidents were happy to take up that mantle, however, with St. Louis Fed President Bullard continuing to lead the vanguard. Indeed, Bullard noted that policy rates may even need to get as high as 7% to fight inflation, from just under 4% today. The Taylor Rule was invoked in that speech. That sent 2yr Treasury yields +19.2bps higher on the week (+7.2bps Friday). 10yr yields lagged, climbing +1.3bps (+5.9bps Friday), which drove the 2s10s curve to its most inverted of the cycle, ending the week at -70.6bps. While curves also flattened on this side of the Atlantic, Bunds and Gilts outperformed, where 10yr Bunds fell -14.6bps (-0.6bps Friday) and Gilts were -11.9bps (+3.7bps Friday) lower. Despite continued tech layoffs, fears of a material escalation in the war after the missiles landed in Poland (for which tensions were quickly eased), and tighter expected Fed policy, equities were subdued but resilient. Indeed, the S&P 500, which fell -0.69% over the week (+0.48% Friday), had its first weekly performance that did not exceed +1% in either direction since early August, while the STOXX 600 climbed +0.25% given the move lower in European discount rates. For a truly muted performance, we highlight the Dow Jones, which was -0.01% lower (+0.59% Friday). While aggregate indices put in a lacklustre shift, regional indices in Europe outperformed, with the DAX up +1.46% (+1.16% Friday) and the CAC +0.76% (+1.04% higher), and certain sectors underperformed in the US where the Nasdaq fell -1.57% (+0.01% Friday) and the Russell 2000 was -1.75% lower (+0.58% Friday). Elsewhere, Brent crude oil pulled back -8.72% (-2.41% Friday), which was its worst weekly return since early August, coincidentally also the last week that the S&P 500 had an absolute value return below 1%. Tyler Durden Mon, 11/21/2022 - 07:57.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 21st, 2022

Futures Fumble 1% Gain, Turn Sharply Lower As Yields, Dollar Soar

Futures Fumble 1% Gain, Turn Sharply Lower As Yields, Dollar Soar US stock futures erased overnight gains  of over 1% as worries about the impact of scorching inflation and a looming recession took the shine off a strong start to the corporate earnings season. Contracts on the S&P 500 dropped 0.4% in an extremely illiquid session at 7:15 a.m. in New York after earlier rising as much as 1.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures were also down 0.4%, despite a boost from a better-than-expected report from Netflix which sent the stock soaring 13% in premarket trading. Behind the sudden, violent slump is today's renewed surge in interest rates which pushed the 10Y Yield to 4.10%, the highest level since October 2008, potentially driven by news that the BOE would launch gilt sales on Nov 1. A surge in the dollar sparked by a plunge in sterling, which tumbled after soaring food prices drove UK inflation back into double digits in September, matching a 40-year high of 10.1% and intensifying pressure on the central bank and Liz Truss’s government to act. Gilts were broadly lower weighing on rates sensitive sectors like banks, property and construction and retail. The result is that UK equities dropped following four days of gains. In premarket trading, Netflix soared as much as 14% in premarket trading, set for its biggest jump since January 2021, after the video streaming company handily beat estimates for paid subscribers, signaling the worst of the slowdown is likely over. Shares of other video-streaming companies are rising after Netflix’s quarterly results reassured investors that its business was back on track. Walt Disney +2.8%, Roku +3.7%, Warner Bros Discovery +1.7%, fuboTV +3.4%.  Bank stocks are lower in thin premarket trading Wednesday, putting them on track to snap a two-day winning streak. In corporate news, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is evaluating an acquisition of some loan portfolios from Credit Suisse to expand its business in the US. HSBC has been reprimanded by a UK watchdog for violating environmental advertising rules, after it sought to depict itself as a green bank in a set of posters. Here are other notable premarket movers: United Airlines shares jump 7.1% in US premarket trading Wednesday following earnings that beat estimates, with analysts saying results and outlook are impressive on strong demand, better costs. Here’s what they are saying: Lam Research leads fellow chip-tool makers higher in premarket trading after ASML said its fourth-quarter sales would likely be better than estimates, driven by strong demand for its advanced chip-making machines. Lam Research (LRCX US) +3.1%, Applied Materials (AMAT US) +1.7% and KLA (KLAC US) +2% Olaplex shares plummet 42% in premarket trading after the hair-care products company slashed full-year forecasts due to slowing sales and announced the departure of its COO Tiffany Walden. Evercore ISI cuts Best Buy, Lowe’s, Advance Auto and Petco Health & Wellness to in-line from outperform in note on Wednesday. All the stocks drop in premarket trading. Best Buy (BBY US) falls 1.6%, Lowe’s (LOW US) -1.1%, Advance Auto (AAP US) -1.1%, Petco (WOOF US) -3.2% Keep an eye on Polaris as the stock was cut to neutral from buy at Citi as the broker flags retail environment being “substantially worse than previously anticipated” after it made checks with the company’s off-road vehicle dealers. Intuitive Surgical shares jumped 7.4% in postmarket trading on Tuesday after the company posted revenues and adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that were higher than consensus analyst estimates. Upbeat company results, cheaper valuations and UK policy reversals have helped buoy risk appetite in recent sessions. At the same time, investors are having to keep track of weakness in the global economy and the impact of persistent inflation on decisions by policymakers at the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Indeed, US stocks have had a roller-coaster October so far as investors swing between fears about a hawkish Federal Reserve and optimism over early third-quarter reports that have showed signs of resilience to higher prices. While a Bank of America survey showed full capitulation among stock investors, strategists have warned that the uncertain macroeconomic outlook could fuel further declines, according to Bloomberg. “While it looks like capitulation, we probably have not seen a bottom yet,” said Randeep Somel, a portfolio manager at M&G Investments. “Companies’ earnings are not reflecting wider macro economic expectations yet, and that isn’t likely to dissipate until around early next year once we got through what is likely to be a rough winter,” he said on Bloomberg TV. Quantitative strategists at Citigroup Inc. said US stocks were pricing in the highest odds of a recession than any other asset class, but still could be poised for more losses. “US equities have priced the most (but not enough) recession risk, and earnings estimates have further to adjust,” strategists including Alex Saunders wrote in a note dated Oct. 18 (he must be ignoring commodities, which are pricing in a global depression). “US equities have priced the most (but not enough) recession risk, and earnings estimates have further to adjust,” strategists including Alex Saunders wrote in a note. “US bonds have priced the least risk, but it will take some time before bonds react to recession risks given the hawkish Fed.” European stocks struggled to eke out a fifth day of gains as most sectors decline; real estate, retail and utilities drop, while tech and insurance outperform. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.2%, paring earlier gains; Stoxx 600 is down 0.2%. IBEX lags, dropping 1%. Utilities stocks fell, led by German names, after Handelsblatt reported that the German Economy Ministry is planning to cap electricity prices along the lines of the proposals made to cap gas prices. The sector is among the worst-performing groups on the broader gauge, down 1.1%, with Encavis, RWE and BKW all down at least 4.5%. In Germany’s plan, utilities will have to offer relief for consumers on a base contingent designed to encourage energy saving, according to the report   Earlier in the session, Asia stocks fell, with shares in Hong Kong dropping the most in the region as the maiden policy speech by the territory’s leader failed to ease concerns about China’s earnings outlook and rising mainland Covid cases. The MSCI Asia Pacific lost as much as 0.8%, erasing an earlier gain, as shares of technology companies such as Alibaba, Tencent and TSMC weighed.  A selloff in consumer stocks dragged down Hong Kong and China gauges as a plan unveiled by Chief Executive John Lee to woo back foreign talent and ease housing woes failed to offset concerns about earnings and Covid. Benchmarks in Japan and Australia rose in tandem with gains in Wall Street. Read: HK Developers Drop as Stamp Duty Rule Disappoints: Street Wrap Most Asia fund managers in a survey by Bank of America expect weaker corporate profits in the region during the next 12 months, with net 72% of the view that consensus estimates for earnings per share growth are too high.  It’s been almost a year since Bitcoin hit a record. Where do you see it going from here? Fill out our survey. “Global growth expectations are shrouded in pessimism but improving on the margin for China,” the survey report said. “However, investors are wary that the continued pursuit of a zero-Covid strategy could pour cold water on their fledgling hope for a China recovery.” China’s intermittent lockdowns continue to weigh on sentiment, with the ongoing party congress in China offering little hope to investors and traders assessing the impact on corporate profits in the latest results season. The MSCI Asia gauge is trading near April 2020 levels after dropping more than 28% this year Japanese stocks extended their advance to second day, driven by gains in information companies and machinery makers. The Topix rose 0.2% to 1,905.06 as of 3 p.m. close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.4% to 27,257.38. SoftBank Group contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 3.7%. Out of 2,166 stocks in the index, 1,376 rose and 674 fell, while 116 were unchanged. Australian stocks edged higher, with the S&P/ASX 200 index rising 0.3% to close at 6,800.10 as investors digested quarterly output reports from commodity producers. All sectors gained except for energy and technology. Banks and industrials contributed the most to the gauge’s advance. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.6% to 10,916.65. Indian stocks indexes rose for the fourth straight session before giving away the majority of gains, dragged by the rupee’s slide against the dollar. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.3% to 59,107.19 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.1%. The gauges rose as much as 0.7% before paring the advance in the last hour of trading. For the week, they are up about 2% each. The Indian rupee tumbled to a record, declining to 82.98 against the greenback in late trading, as the central bank was seen moving away from supplying dollars. The looming expiry of weekly derivative contracts also weighed on local shares. Ten of the 19 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. advanced today, led by energy companies, while utilities and power firms were the worst performers. “Domestic institutions have been strong buyers in the market over the last week, as 2QFY23 results have come in line or stronger than expected,” S Hariharan, head of institutional equity at Emkay Global Financial, said. In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index spiked 0.3% as the greenback rose against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the New Zealand dollar; the yen tumbled to a fresh 32 year low of 149.70 against the dollar while the pound slumped below $1.13. The euro slumped to almost $0.98. The shift in the euro’s volatility term structure shows that traders are following central banks into being more data dependent than before. Australian and New Zealand dollars trim intraday gains alongside similar moves in US futures. In Japan, authorities continued their jawboning of the yen, with Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki saying he is increasing the frequency of monitoring foreign-exchange markets. The currency hovered above 149 per dollar. The 10-year government bond yield rose above the 0.25% upper limit of the central bank’s target range, a breach that’s likely to prompt the Bank of Japan to step up bond purchases to limit the advance. “The outlook for the UK is very, very difficult and certainly when focusing on our asset allocation it’s predominantly in the US where we have much higher conviction and certainty of outcome,” Grace Peters, JPMorgan Private Bank’s head of investment strategy, said on Bloomberg Television. In rates, Treasuries were cheaper across the curve with losses led by belly, cheapening 2s5s30s spread by 3bp into early US session. US yields cheaper by nearly 7bp across belly of the curve, flattening 5s30s spread by almost 3bp following three successive steepening sessions; 10-year around 4.09%, cheaper by ~8bp on the day. US coupon issuance resumes with $12b 20-year bond reopening; WI yield near 4.34% is above all auction stops since the May 2020 reintroduction of the tenor and ~52bp cheaper than September auction, which stopped through by 1.3bp Front-end bund yields rose by 12bps as the curve bear- flattened after Germany’s Finance Agency said it will increase the amount of securities it can lend to traders in the repo market by €54b, a move strategists say will help ease a collateral squeeze that has plagued the debt market in recent months. Bunds underperform gilts and USTs. German 10-year yield is up 7 bps to 2.35%, while gilts 10-year yield is up 3bps to below 4% and Treasuries 10-year yield climbs ~5bps to above 4%. Most UK bonds fell, while the pound dropped as much as 0.6% after data showed UK CPI rose 10.1% last month from 9.9% in August, exceeding economists expectations of 10% and adding to pressure on policy makers to lift the key rate significantly next month. The bank of England also confirmed that it will start selling down its portfolio of gilts. In commodities, oil rose amid concerns that the European Union’s latest sanctions on Russian fuel could exacerbate the market tightness that the US is trying to alleviate with additional sales. The Biden administration will announce Wednesday a plan to release 15 million barrels from US emergency oil reserves in an effort to ease high gasoline prices. WTI and Brent Dec futures are firmer intraday after yesterday’s decline, which saw Brent dip under USD 90/bbl but settle at the figure. LME metals are mostly softer amid the firmer Dollar and risk aversion, with 3M copper extending its losses under USD 7,500/t. US President Biden will lay out plans on Wednesday to continue using the SPR to gain more stability in gas prices and will reiterate that gasoline company profits are too high and should be returned to consumers, according to a senior administration official. Furthermore, the Biden administration agreed to make future oil purchases to refill reserves at prices at or below USD 67.00-72.00/bbl, while President Biden will announce 15mln additional barrels for delivery from SPR in December, extending the initial timeline and completing the 180mln commitment. Spot gold trades lower intraday and back under the USD 1,650/oz mark as the Dollar picks up in pace. Japan plans to further loosen crypto rules as soon as December "by making it easier to list virtual coins, potentially boosting the country’s allure for Binance and rival exchanges", according to Bloomberg. Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include the UK and Canadian CPI readings for September, along with US housing starts and building permits for September. From central banks, the Fed will release their Beige book, and we’ll also hear from the Fed’s Kashkari, Evans and Bullard, the ECB’s Centeno and Visco, and the BoE’s Cunliffe and Mann. Finally, earnings releases include Tesla, Procter & Gamble and Abbott Laboratories. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,726.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 398.38 MXAP down 0.8% to 137.80 MXAPJ down 1.1% to 445.81 Nikkei up 0.4% to 27,257.38 Topix up 0.2% to 1,905.06 Hang Seng Index down 2.4% to 16,511.28 Shanghai Composite down 1.2% to 3,044.38 Sensex up 0.2% to 59,077.34 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,800.06 Kospi down 0.6% to 2,237.44 German 10Y yield up 3% to 2.354 Euro down 0.3% to $0.9826 Brent Futures up 0.6% to 90.59 Gold spot down 0.7% to $1,640.03 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.25% to 112.42 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Embattled UK Prime Minister Liz Truss faces a brewing parliamentary rebellion if she is forced to abandon a key Conservative manifesto commitment on pensions as part of a frantic austerity drive Record-low demand for German bonds at a government auction suggests investors are getting picky as countries ready a wall of sales and speculation mounts that the ECB will start reducing the bonds it’s amassed on its balance sheet over the years Bank of Japan Board Member Seiji Adachi reinforced the central bank’s message that it won’t adjust policy in response to the rapid weakening of the yen, pushing back against persistent market speculation The value of US Treasuries owned by Japanese investors slid by almost 3% in August to the lowest level in three years as a slump in global debt markets hammered down prices A number of hedge funds are starting to come around to the idea that it may be time to buy the beaten-up pound and gilts. Others say investors should remain cautious. Great Hill Capital in New York sees opportunities to go long sterling after the currency’s recent wild ride. Blue Edge Advisors Pte sees positives in longer- maturity gilts as global growth slows A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mixed following the choppy performance stateside where the major indices wobbled on news that Apple cut iPhone 14 Plus production less than two weeks after its debut, but then recovered heading into the close and with futures underpinned after-hours after strong earnings and subscriber additions from Netflix. ASX 200 gained with outperformance in defensive sectors although the upside was contained by a lacklustre mood in miners after BHP’s quarterly output update which included higher iron output but also a severe drop in coal production. Nikkei 225 was led higher by notable strength in blue-chip names including SoftBank and Fast Retailing and with firm gains also in utilities and power stocks, while the latest commentary from BoJ board member Adachi echoed the central bank’s dovish message as he warned against a shift towards tightening and pushed back on responding to short-term FX moves with monetary policy. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. remained pressured amid COVID concerns and data uncertainty, while Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee’s first annual Policy Address failed to inspire a turnaround despite the announcement of measures to support property, tech start-ups and attract foreign talent. Top Asian News Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee said in his first annual Policy Address that national sovereignty and security are top priorities, while he also noted Hong Kong faces a “new chapter” of development and warned Hong Kong faces risks from global turmoil and Covid. Lee added that they will allow overseas talent to refund extra stamp duty on home purchases and will introduce a bill this year to exempt the stamp duty payable for transactions conducted by dual-counter market makers. Lee also stated the HKEX will revise main board listing rules next year to facilitate fundraising of advanced tech enterprises that have yet to meet the profit and trading record requirements, according to Reuters. BoJ's Adachi said monetary policy does not directly control FX and there are times FX moves rapidly short-term, while he added that responding to short-term FX moves with monetary policy would heighten uncertainty over BoJ's guidance which is not good for the economy. Adachi also stated that inflation is starting to increase but he is not convinced yet that the BoJ's target will be achieved in a stable and sustained manner. Furthermore, he said they must be cautious about shifting toward monetary tightening as downside risks to the economy are increasing and a shift to monetary tightening would weaken demand and heighten the risk Japan will revert to deflation, while the best approach now is to maintain easy monetary policy. Coal Miner Left With Retiring Plants in Indonesia Green Push Taiwan Central Bank Sees Severe Economic Challenges Next Year Billionaire Ambani Splurges $163 Million on Priciest Dubai Villa Singapore’s COE Category B Bidding Rises to S$110,000 Equities in Europe trade mostly lower after initially opening modestly firmer across the board. Sectors overall are now mostly lower (vs a mixed open) with no overarching theme, with Tech, Banks, Media, and Insurance towards the top of the bunch whilst Real Estate, Utilities, Retail, and Basic Resources sit as the laggards. US equity futures are off best levels with the RTY lagging peers and the NQ slightly more cushioned following Netflix earnings. Click here and here for the Daily European Equity and Additional Opening News, which includes earnings from ASML & Nestle among others. Netflix Inc (NFLX) - Q3 2022 (USD): EPS 3.10 (exp. 2.13), Revenue 7.93bln (exp. 7.84bln). Q3 Net subscriber additions 2.41mln (exp. 1.07mln). Sees Q4 EPS USD 0.36 (exp. 1.20). Sees Q4 revenue USD 7.78bln (exp. 7.98bln). Sees Q4 streaming paid net change +4.5mln (exp. +3.9mln). Won't provide paid membership forecasts from Q4. (PR Newswire) Shares rose 14.3% after-market, +13.8% in the pre-market Top European News Daily Mail's Hodges understands UK PM Truss has been informed by Graham Brady the traditional threshold of letters for a leadership challenge has been breached. But he is insisting on a threshold of half the parliamentary party before acting. UK Tory rebels were reported to have asked opposition Labour Party MPs to help them oust UK PM Truss as Tory backbenchers grow increasingly frustrated with the PMs leadership, according to The Telegraph. Pensions could increase in line with earnings instead of inflation next year after UK PM Truss went back on her commitment to the pension triple lock, according to The Telegraph. UK Chancellor Hunt met with Chairman of the 1922 Committee Brady on Tuesday afternoon which prompted further questions about the future of UK PM Truss, according to Sky News. UK Chancellor is lining up taxes on energy companies and banks to fill a GBP 40bln UK fiscal hole, according to FT. Germany is planning an electricity price cap along the lines of a gas cap, according to Handelsblatt; German Economy Ministry Draft: cabinet should discuss power and gas price breaks on November 18th, via Reuters. FX Franc flounders as Dollar rebounds alongside bear-steepening in US Treasuries, USD/CHF probes parity as DXY tops 112.500. Sterling deflated irrespective of firmer than forecast UK inflation data on broader economic, fiscal and political concerns; Cable tests support around 1.1250 from a 1.1350+ peak. Euro fades against Greenback and edges closer to 0.9800, Yen slips further through 149.00 in the ongoing absence of actual Japanese intervention and the Loonie treads cautiously between 1.3700-1.3800 parameters into Canadian CPI. Antipodes fare better vs their US peer post-NZ inflation and pre-Aussie jobs as NZD/USD hovers near 0.5700 and AUD/USD just above 0.6300. Japanese PM Kishida says no comment on FX; need to take appropriate action against excess FX volatility. Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki says there is no change to the thinking on FX, in frequent communication with the MOF. Fixed Income Gilts dented post-CPI which topped 10%, though clawed back losses to mid-97.00; before further pressure on political updates and ahead of a later DMO outing. Bunds and USTs under pressure in sympathy, with Bunds tacking the laggard mantel in wake the German FinMin increasing the size of outstanding bonds; yield above 2.30% Stateside, USTs are moving in tandem with peers though magnitudes a touch more contained ahead of 20yr supply and Fed speak; curve mixed, overall. German Finance Ministry says increased the size of 18 outstanding bonds by EUR 3bln each (total of EUR 54bln), via Reuters; increase will provide flexibility to cover financing needs during the energy crisis. Commodities WTI and Brent Dec futures are firmer intraday after yesterday’s decline, which saw Brent dip under USD 90/bbl but settle at the figure. Spot gold trades lower intraday and back under the USD 1,650/oz mark as the Dollar picks up in pace. LME metals are mostly softer amid the firmer Dollar and risk aversion, with 3M copper extending its losses under USD 7,500/t. US Private Energy Inventory (bbls): Crude -1.3mln (exp. +1.4mln), Gasoline -2.2mln (exp. -1.1mln), Distillates -1.1mln (exp. -2.2mln), Cushing +0.9mln. US President Biden will lay out plans on Wednesday to continue using the SPR to gain more stability in gas prices and will reiterate that gasoline company profits are too high and should be returned to consumers, according to a senior administration official. Furthermore, the Biden administration agreed to make future oil purchases to refill reserves at prices at or below USD 67.00-72.00/bbl, while President Biden will announce 15mln additional barrels for delivery from SPR in December, extending the initial timeline and completing the 180mln commitment. Geopolitics Russia says it is preparing to evacuate civilians from Kherson which comes as Ukrainian troops push closer to the city as part of a successful counter-offensive, according to AFP News Agency Europe is planning to sanction a number of Iranian individuals and entities regarding arms sales to Russia, according to Politico citing diplomats/officials; adding, a list of sanctions has been prepared, aim is to be in agreement before Thursday/Friday US, Britain and France plan to raise Iran's arms transfers to Russia during closed-door UN security council meeting Wednesday, according to Reuters citing diplomats. North Korea said it fired artillery shells on Tuesday to send a warning against South Korea's military drills and it called on its 'enemies' to immediately stop causing military tensions, according to KCNA. US Event Calendar 07:00: Oct. MBA Mortgage Applications -4.5%, prior -2.0% 08:30: Sept. Building Permits, est. 1.53m, prior 1.52m, revised 1.54m Building Permits MoM, est. -0.8%, prior -10.0%, revised -8.5% 08:30: Sept. Housing Starts, est. 1.46m, prior 1.58m Housing Starts MoM, est. -7.2%, prior 12.2% 14:00: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Our wayward but lovely dog Brontë doesn't get so much of a mention these days but I have to say that she was taken to the Vet yesterday and although she got a clean bill of health the report back from my wife shocked me. She's 8 in a couple of months and the Vet said we will soon have to move her to geriatric food portions. When my wife told me it actually made me quite upset. Firstly because it seems like only yesterday she was a puppy (maybe because she still acts like one), and secondly in dog years she's not much older than me. If anyone tries to put me on geriatric food portions soon they'll be trouble! There's been a bit of feast and famine in markets over the last 24 hours, with both equities and bond yields seeing sizeable intra-day swings without obvious catalysts. The S&P 500 fell from an intraday high of +2.31% just after the open to close “only” close +1.15% higher but was then buoyed after the bell by Netflix who reported that subscriber growth topped estimates, leading to $3.10 EPS versus $2.12 expectations. Their equity jumped in after-hours trading, ultimately settling around +14% higher, reversing the -1.73% decline in normal trading. This has helped S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 futures be +0.79% and +1.19% higher this morning as we go to print. Prior to this, equities generally had a positive day yesterday in spite of the volatility, with the S&P 500 posting a broad-based advance that saw more than 89% of the index move higher on the day, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.34%) advanced for a 4th day running. Megacap tech stocks had lagged behind ahead of the Netflix report, with the FANG+ index just (+0.24%) after dipping into the red late in the New York afternoon. Netflix itself was one of the biggest decliners in the S&P and the biggest decliner in the FANG+ at -1.73% before their earnings. The after-hours Netflix news followed a number of other releases, including Goldman Sachs (+2.33%) where trading revenue of $6.2bn beat estimates, alongside Johnson & Johnson (-0.35%) who cut their sales forecast for the year. Today’s highlights include Tesla who’ll be reporting after the close. In fixed income the ranges were large even if closing levels weren't much different. 10yr Treasury yields saw an intraday surge of more than +10bps around the time of the US open, before closing essentially unchanged. In Asia, US 10yr yields are +1.5bps higher, trading just above 4%. Meanwhile in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (+1.4bps), OATs (+0.8bps) and BTPs (+3.2bps) moved slightly higher but bunds traded it a 13.5bps range. One thing possibly helping risk was the fact that global energy prices moved decisively lower yesterday, which also saw inflation breakevens decline across the big economies. Brent crude (-1.74%) fell back beneath $90/bbl intraday for the first time in a couple of weeks before closing at $90.03, which followed a Bloomberg report that there’d be another 10-15m barrels of oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Even more strikingly, European natural gas futures (-12.37%) fell to a 4-month low of €113 per megawatt-hour, which comes as the long-range forecasts have suggested that we won’t be seeing the worst-case scenario of a cold winter in Europe, which in turn will reduce demand for heating. That’s a big boost to Europe on multiple levels, as lower prices mean that any measures to subsidise gas prices wouldn’t be as expensive as feared, whilst lower demand would reduce the risk of energy rationing or blackouts. In terms of data, this is a big week for US housing and we got another glimpse yesterday of the continuing impact of rate hikes as mortgage rates have hit their highest level in over two decades. The US National Association of Home Builders’ market index fell to 38 in October (vs. 43 expected). That’s its lowest level in a decade with the exception of the pandemic months of April and May 2020, and continues its run of having fallen in every single month this year. Here in the UK, the political situation remained incredibly volatile following the mini-budget U-turn, with constant press briefings about when Prime Minister Truss might be removed from office. The opinion polling remains dire for the government, with a YouGov poll yesterday showing that Truss had a net favourability rating of -70, which for reference is well beneath the -53 score for Prime Minister Johnson at the time of his resignation in early July. Strikingly, even if you just looked at those who voted Conservative at the last election, her net favourability was still at -51, with ratings that are deeply negative among every category of voters. We should hear from Truss in the House of Commons later for Prime Minister’s Question Time, so one that plenty of observers will be watching. When it came to markets, the biggest story was an explicit pushback from the Bank of England on the FT’s report that the BoE were set to postpone the start of QT on October 31. We’d mentioned the report in yesterday’s edition, which saw equity futures move higher when it came out, but a BoE spokesperson said in the European morning that it was “inaccurate”. Gilt yields moved higher immediately afterwards, but by the close they’d moved lower, with the 10yr gilt yield down -2.2bps on the day. After Europe went home the BoE announced that QT/Gilt sales will commence from November 1st. So the earlier FT story proved to be inaccurate. In the meantime however, sterling returned to being the worst-performing G10 currency again, closing down -0.33% against the US Dollar. This morning, sterling (+0.11%) is rebounding a little, trading at $1.1331 as I type. Keep an eye out for the latest UK CPI print shortly after we go to press as well, which is the last one ahead of the BoE’s next meeting a fortnight tomorrow. Our UK economist sees that returning to double-digits with a +10.0% reading, and he doesn’t expect it to fall out of double-digits until March 2023. Asian equity markets are a little more mixed overnight. As I type, the Nikkei (+0.73%) and the Kospi (+0.18%) are trading in positive territory while the Hang Seng (-1.08%) is trading lower in early trade. Mainland Chinese stocks are also down with the CSI (-0.86%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.51%) both in the red amid a lack of positive surprises from the 20th party congress. Early this morning, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in his speech to the parliamentary committee stated that the recent depreciation in the Japanese yen was sharp and one-sided and doesn’t bode well for the nation’s economy as it makes difficult for businesses to plan ahead. In terms of yesterday’s other data, US industrial production came in on the upside with a +0.4% advance in September (vs. +0.1% expected), whilst the previous month’s contraction was also revised to a shallower -0.1% (vs. -0.2% previously). Separately in Germany, the ZEW survey’s current situation reading fell more than expected to -72.2 in October (vs. -68.5 expected), which is its lowest level since August 2020. However, the expectations component unexpectedly rose to -59.2 (vs. -66.5 expected), ending a run of 3 consecutive monthly declines. To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK and Canadian CPI readings for September, along with US housing starts and building permits for September. From central banks, the Fed will release their Beige book, and we’ll also hear from the Fed’s Kashkari, Evans and Bullard, the ECB’s Centeno and Visco, and the BoE’s Cunliffe and Mann. Finally, earnings releases include Tesla, Procter & Gamble and Abbott Laboratories. Tyler Durden Wed, 10/19/2022 - 08:08.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytOct 19th, 2022

Futures, Oil Fall As Searing Rally Wobbles

Futures, Oil Fall As Searing Rally Wobbles While European and Asian stocks have extended the blistering July rally to start August, US futures remain have traded in the red in the overnight session, if only modestly, which is to be expected after the best month for US markets since November 2020. Contracts on both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 were lower by about 0.1%, alongside a drop in oil, the dollar and crypto, as investors assessed recession risks against the latest remarks from Neel Kashkari over the weekend and Bill Dudley this morning that higher interest rates are needed to bring inflation under control. The Stoxx 600 Index rose 0.2%, led by banks, as HSBC Holdings Plc posted better-than-estimated profits. 10Y yields dipped to 2.64%. Oil declined after poor Chinese economic data added to concerns that a global slowdown may sap demand. West Texas Intermediate dropped below $97 a barrel after sinking almost 7% in July in the first back-to-back monthly loss since late 2020. In thin premarket trading, bank stocks were lower as investors remain on edge over recession risks. In corporate news, Global Payments agreed to buy Evo Payments for $34 per share in cash. Meanwhile, HSBC delivered better-than-estimated profits and pledged to return to paying quarterly dividends next year as it seeks to head off a call by its largest shareholder to split up. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Siga Technologies (SIGA US) shares are set to rebound on Monday after the stock sank in the previous session following an FDA update on monkeypox. Shares of other companies making vaccines and antiviral products tied to the disease were also higher in premarket trading. Mobile Global Esports (MGAM US) shares surge as much as 76%, set for another day of gains, following the esports platform’s initial public offering on Friday when it jumped 180%. Cryptocurrency-linked stocks fall as Bitcoin slips following its best month since October 2021, with traders assessing the strength of a recovery from the market’s worst levels. Coinbase (COIN US) down 2%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) falls 4.2%. Comcast (CMCSA US) and Charter Communications (CHTR US) both downgraded at Barclays which said it sees the cable companies as “likely past peak growth.” Comcast shares down 0.1%. Bumble (BMBL US) is cut to hold at Jefferies, with the broker citing incremental FX headwinds and a valuation that is not “compelling.” PubMatic (PUBM US) and Taboola (TBLA US) both cut to sector weight at KeyBanc as the broker anticipates “disparate” 2Q results from the adtech sector. Prefers overweight-rated TradeDesk (TTD US). Traders have been speculating the Federal Reserve will tone down its anti-inflation campaign and opt for a slower path of rate hikes after data showed the US economy shrank a second quarter. While that sentiment drove July’s market turnaround after historic first-half losses, over the weekend some Fed officials - such as Kashkari and Dudley - sought to reinforce the message that higher rates are needed to stamp out price pressures and downplayed recession risks. "The fact that a very weak run of data is seen as equity bullish just purely on the basis of lower rates speaks to just how utterly dominant Fed policy has become in driving investor behavior,” said James Athey, investment director at abrdn. "Unless the Fed pulls off a miracle I am afraid the bear market is absolutely not over." Investors are also monitoring US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Asia. A statement from her office skipped any mention of a possible stopover in Taiwan. A visit may stoke US-China tension over the island. Here are a handful of related headlines: US House Speaker Pelosi’s official itinerary for her trip to Asia was released which did not mention Taiwan, while Radio France Internationale’s Chinese website quoted sources that stated Pelosi will fly to Taiwan via Clark Air Base in the Philippines on August 4th, according to Dimsum Daily HK. China held live-fire drills off the coast opposite Taiwan and its air force said it will resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity regarding Taiwan, according to Associated Press and Chinese state media. A senior official in Beijing said the atmosphere of last week’s Biden-Xi telephone conversation was the worst among the five talks between the leaders and President Xi was said to have showed the toughest attitude he has ever shown to any world leader, while the most important topic in the conversation was China-US relations especially the 'Taiwan Question'. Furthermore, the official believes the probability of US House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is low, as President Xi’s tough position on Taiwan will push President Biden to put more pressure on Pelosi to bypass Taiwan on this trip and the official warned that an accidental military conflict around the island of Taiwan cannot be ruled out if Pelosi insists on visiting Taiwan, according to SGH Macro Advisors. European stocks climb as earnings continue to buoy risk sentiment, while US futures slide, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down 0.4%. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.3%. FTSE MIB outperforms peers, adding 0.9%, Stoxx 600 lags, adding 0.2%. Banks, telecoms and autos are the strongest-performing sectors. Here are the other notable European movers: HSBC jumps as much as 7%, the most since January 2021, after the lender reported interim results. Analysts were impressed with second-quarter pretax profit coming in ahead of consensus. Pearson shares rise as much as 10% after first-half sales beat analyst estimates, with weakness in the higher education segment more than offset by strong growth in other divisions. EssilorLuxottica shares climb as much as 4.2% after CEO Francesco Milleri told Les Echos he’s bullish about the eyewear giant’s outlook. Analysts also are positive about its prospects. Deutsche Telekom shares rise after Kepler Cheuvreux re-initiated coverage with buy, saying its free cash flow yield is set to rise to over 13% by 2024 from about 8% in 2022. Air- France KLM shares gain as much as 6.1% after being upgraded to buy at HSBC and to outperform at Oddo BHF, with the latter noting that the effects of the airline’s restructuring seem to be underestimated. Quilter shares gain as much as 18% amid a report that NatWest is considering a bid for the wealth management firm. The article said several other private equity firms are also considering an offer. Spectris drops as much as 8.2%, the most since Feb. 28, after the precision instrumentation and controls supplier reported half-year results. Jefferies said the interims were a “touch light.” Heineken shares fall as much as 3.5% after the company reported strong 1H results, with investors focusing on the cautious outlook and tweaked 2023 guidance. Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden shares plunged after a fresh sell rating by Goldman Sachs, which downgraded the landlord, saying it’s overleveraged as financing costs continue to surge. Varta fell the most since November 2021 after the German battery maker cut its full-year forecast for sales and earnings over headwinds including rising raw materials and energy costs. CEZ shares fell the most in a month as investors in the Czech power utility digested mounting signals that the government was ready to impose a windfall tax on the most profitable companies. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose as investors bet corporate earnings will support market valuations and as weak economic data from China spurred hopes for more stimulus.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.8% with Toyota boosting the measure the most ahead of its earnings release later this week. Industrials led gains among the sectoral gauges as Mitsubishi jumped ahead of its quarterly report. Benchmarks in Japan, Singapore, Vietnam and Thailand outperformed.  Hong Kong and mainland China indexes reversed their earlier losses, buoyed by prospects that weak factory data increases the likelihood of fresh policy support from Beijing. China’s factory activity unexpectedly contracted in July while property sales continued to shrink, data over the weekend showed. Some investors said the weak figures have already been priced into last month’s losses in Chinese markets.  “Expecting more stimulus is reasonable, although the market feels the GDP target is no longer a hard target,” said Steven Leung, an executive director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong. “Weak economy means more policies needed to achieve their target, or get closer to their target.” Asian stocks have been on a downtrend despite Monday’s pending gain, with the regional benchmark down almost 30% from its February 2021 high. The gauge has underperformed US peers so far this year as Covid woes continue in China, along with the nation’s property crisis, while ongoing earnings reports in the region are being closely watched.  Japanese equities erased earlier losses to end higher as better-than-expected domestic corporate earnings boosted sentiment. The Topix Index rose 1% to 1,960.11 as of the close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei advanced 0.7% to 27,993.35. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index’s gain, increasing 3.5%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,706 rose and 395 fell, while 69 were unchanged. Earnings are “fairly good,” said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist and fund manager at T&D Asset Management. “The numbers coming out are clearly positive compared to the previous quarter especially in terms of profit growth.” In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.7% to close at 6,993.00, the highest since June 9, boosted by gains across mining, healthcare and energy shares. A subgauge of miners climbed for a third session, closing the highest since June 29. Investors await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision due Tuesday, with it expected to lift the key interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.85%.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.3% to 11,525.87 In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down about 0.4%; NOK and CAD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, NZD and JPY outperform. Yen trades at 132.33/USD. The yen climbed as much as 1% against the greenback to 131.89, rising a fourth day in its longest-winning streak since February. While the gains were initially spurred by signs the Federal Reserve will rein back rate hikes, an Asia-based FX trader said Monday that the yen is increasingly seen as a haven play. The euro edged up 0.4%, bolstered by dollar weakness; Goldman Sachs strategists have revised down their three- and six-month forecasts for EUR/USD to 0.99 and 1.02 (from 1.05 and 1.10 previously), citing the shifting European growth outlook. In rates, Treasuries bear-flatten, with the 10-year rate at 2.64%, well down from June’s peak near 3.50%, after hawkish comments from Kashkari and Bostic. Bund 10-year yields rose about 5 bps, after German and Euro Area PMIs were revised higher, while the yield on 10-year gilts climbs about 4 bps to 1.91%. Italian bonds rallied, sending the 10-year yield below 3% for the first time since May, as investors bet that a new government will stick to commitments needed to unlock about 200 billion euros ($205 billion) of European Union funds. In commodities, WTI drifted 2.2% lower to trade at around $96. Base metals are mixed; LME aluminum falls 1.8% while LME nickel gains 4.4%. Spot gold is little changed at $1,766/oz.  Bitcoin declined after reaching the highest levels since mid-June on Saturday amid optimism that the market may have recovered from its worst levels. Looking at today's calendar, we get the July ISM index and June Construction Spending data, Japan July vehicle sales, Eurozone June unemployment rate, Italy July PMI, budget balance, new car registrations, June unemployment rate. We also get earnings from Devon Energy, Activision Blizzard. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,123.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 439.12 MXAP up 0.7% to 161.54 MXAPJ up 0.2% to 523.50 Nikkei up 0.7% to 27,993.35 Topix up 1.0% to 1,960.11 Hang Seng Index little changed at 20,165.84 Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,259.96 Sensex up 0.8% to 58,043.18 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 6,992.97 Kospi little changed at 2,452.25 Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,766.44 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.26% to 105.63 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.87% Euro up 0.2% to $1.0241 Brent Futures down 1.2% to $102.77/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg European stocks climb as earnings continue to buoy risk sentiment, while US futures slide, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down 0.3%. Stoxx 600 rises 0.1% with banks, telecoms and autos the strongest-performing sectors. In fixed income, Bund 10-year yield rises about 5 bps, after German and Euro Area PMIs were revised higher, while the yield on 10-year gilts climbs about 4 bps to 1.91%. Italian bonds hold gains, with the 10-year yield falling below 3% for the first time since May. European factory activity plunged and Asian manufacturing output continued to weaken in July amid lingering supply-chain complications and a slowing global economy. Natural gas prices in Europe rose, after posting the biggest weekly gain in more than a month, as Russia’s tightening grip over supply rips through the economy and heightens concerns about shortages in the winter. The US Treasury is expected to make its fourth straight reduction in a quarterly sale of longer-term debt this month, with most dealers predicting extra cutbacks for the 20-year bond. China’s massive trade surplus helped to offset capital outflows in the first half of the year, anchoring its balance of payments even as the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes fuel outflows from developed and emerging markets alike. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were choppy as momentum from last week’s earnings-inspired euphoria on Wall St was partially offset by disappointing Chinese PMI data and cautiousness ahead of upcoming risk events including central bank rate decisions, NFP jobs data and US House Speaker Pelosi’s trip to Asia. ASX 200 was kept afloat by strength in energy and utilities after the competition regulator’s interim gas report forecast Australia’s east coast could face a shortfall of 56PJ in 2023, while the latest domestic manufacturing PMI data remained in expansion territory. Nikkei 225 was also positive with the biggest movers driven by recent earnings releases and reports also noted that Japan’s panel is expected to seek a record increase of at least JPY 30 to minimum wages. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially pressured after Chinese PMI data missed expectations in which the official manufacturing reading printed at a surprise contraction, with sentiment also not helped by US-China tensions as the world second-guesses whether or not US House Speaker Pelosi will defy China’s warnings regarding visiting Taiwan during her Asia trip. However, the mood in Chinese stocks gradually improved and retraced the majority of losses. Top Asian News US House Speaker Pelosi’s official itinerary for her trip to Asia was released which did not mention Taiwan, while Radio France Internationale’s Chinese website quoted sources that stated Pelosi will fly to Taiwan via Clark Air Base in the Philippines on August 4th, according to Dimsum Daily HK. China held live-fire drills off the coast opposite Taiwan and its air force said it will resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity regarding Taiwan, according to Associated Press and Chinese state media. A senior official in Beijing said the atmosphere of last week’s Biden-Xi telephone conversation was the worst among the five talks between the leaders and President Xi was said to have showed the toughest attitude he has ever shown to any world leader, while the most important topic in the conversation was China-US relations especially the 'Taiwan Question'. Furthermore, the official believes the probability of US House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is low, as President Xi’s tough position on Taiwan will push President Biden to put more pressure on Pelosi to bypass Taiwan on this trip and the official warned that an accidental military conflict around the island of Taiwan cannot be ruled out if Pelosi insists on visiting Taiwan, according to SGH Macro Advisors. Macau is to permit dine-in services and will reopen gyms, bars and beauty parlours beginning this Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. US, South Korea and Japan will begin joint ballistic missile defence exercises in waters off Hawaii this week, according to Yonhap. "China is willing to boost China-New Zealand comprehensive strategic partnership to yield more results based on the principle of mutual respect and mutual benefit while appropriately handling differences," according to the Chinese Foreign Minister via Global Times. European bourses remain firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, as the region shrugs-off Final Manufacturing PMIs and a mixed APAC handover given Friday's strong Wall St. performance. However, US futures are underpressure in a continuation of downbeat APAC trade amid poor Chinese PMIs and with multiple key risk events looming for the week, ES -0.2%. In Europe, sectors are mixed with the breadth of performance narrow ex-banks given pronounced upside in HSBC, +6.0%, post-earnings; note, HSBC accounts for 18% of the Europe Stoxx 600 Banking sector. Top European News HSBC Shares Jump After Profit Rise and Vow to Restore Dividends Ukraine Latest: First Grain Ship Since Start of War Leaves Odesa Marex Agrees to Buy ED&F Man Brokerage in Global Expansion Italy 10-Year Yield Falls Below 3% for the First Time Since May Quilter Gains; Potential NatWest Deal Has Clear Logic: Investec Vinci Agrees Deal for 30% Stake in Mexico Airport Operator OMA FX DXY down to deeper cycle low sub-105.500 as Yen revival continues and activity currencies climb, USD/JPY retesting underlying bids and support into 132.00 including next layer of Japanese importer buying interest. Aussie up in anticipation of RBA and Kiwi ahead of NZ jobs data, AUD/NZD and NZD/USD firmly back above 0.7000 and 0.6300 respectively. Euro eyes recent peaks and Sterling probes stops around last Friday’s high, EUR/USD touches 1.0270 and Cable tops 1.2250 . Yuan softer in wake of weaker than expected Chinese PMIs, but Rand remains bid irrespective of inflation contractionary SA PMI as Gold underpins, USD/CNH and USD/CNY 6.7600+ and 6.7500+, USD/ZAR under 16.5000. Fixed Income Debt continues to consolidate and retrace from new corrective peaks, but curves remain steeper. Bunds and Gilts sub-par within 157.74-156.74 and 118.22-117.72 respective ranges, T-notes flattish between 121-07+/120-28 parameters. BTPs bid and sharply outperform ahead of Italy's snap elections and into month bereft of issuance. 10 year bond tops 127.50 from 126.40 low just 7 ticks above prior close. Commodities Crude benchmarks are pressured in a resumption of Friday's action after modest overnight consolidation as the complex looks towards OPEC+. Currently, benchmarks are firmer by over USD 1.50/bbl; while Dutch TTF remains around the EUR 200/MWh mark as Russia put the onus on others re. Nord Stream 1. Spot gold is firmer, deriving upside from the pressure seen in the USD though the magnitude of the yellow metal's move perhaps capped by the generally constructive European tone. OPEC Secretary General Al-Ghais said OPEC is not in competition with Russia and that Russia is a big main player in the world energy map with its membership in OPEC+ vital for the success of the agreement. Al-Ghais added OPEC doesn’t control oil prices but practices tuning markets in terms of supply and demand, while he added that the recent rise in prices is not just related to the Ukraine crisis but is also due to lack of spare production capacity. Furthermore, he said the current state of the global oil market is very volatile and that the most important factor to affect oil prices by year-end is the lack of investments in the sector, according to an interview with Al Rai newspaper cited by Reuters. Libya’s Unity government oil minister said oil production is at 1.2mln bpd, according to Reuters. Gazprom said it is halting gas supplies to Latvia and accused it of violating conditions, while Latvia said that it doesn’t expect Gazprom’s decision to have any major impact, according to Reuters. European governments have eased back on efforts to curb trade in Russian oil in which they are delaying a plan to shut Moscow out of the vital Lloyd’s of London maritime insurance market and will permit some international shipments amid fears of rising crude prices and tighter global energy supplies, according to FT. The first ship with grain left the port of Odessa, according to CNN Türk; subsequently, Ukrainian Infrastructure minister says if the grain deal works in full, they will start consultations to open the port of Mykolaiv, via Reuters. Part of the damaged Beirut port silos collapsed following a weeks-long fire, according to Al Jazeera US Event Calendar 10:00: June Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1% 10:00: July ISM Manufacturing, est. 52.0, prior 53.0 Employment, est. 48.2, prior 47.3 New Orders, est. 49.0, prior 49.2 Prices Paid, est. 73.5, prior 78.5 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The 2023 global II survey opens in 11 months' time. If you are likely to value our work in the next year please ...... ah ok, I did promise not to mention it again. Thanks for all the support and we'll see how we do in October or November when the results drop. Talking of results, congratulations to the England women's football team for winning the Euros. After years of watching the men's team lose time and time again in important moments it was strange watching them win, especially against Germany. First second place in the Eurovision Song Contest and now this. The world order is being turned upside down! Anyway, welcome to August and a spectacular start to H2 for markets with the S&P 500 in July (+9.1%) seeing its best month since November 2020 and 10yr US Treasuries (-37bps and +1.7%) seeing their best performance since March 2020. This follows the worst H1 since 1962 and 1788 respectively. A stunning comeback for 60/40, 50/50 or whatever ratio you chose to allocate. See our monthly performance review, out soon after this mail, for all the details. It's a complicated outlook at the moment as we don't think the US is in a typical recession yet but will almost certainly be within a few quarters. That delay is supportive for markets relative to what was priced a few weeks ago but it's hard to say the outlook is positive. However the market has more rallied on lower expected terminal rates and the move to price rate cut probabilities within 6 months. We don't think either will come to pass but my rates colleague Francis Yared always tells me not to fight bullish fixed income markets in the summer. Indeed the CoTD on Friday (link here) showed that August is by far and away the best month of the year for bonds. Interestingly Larry Summers had some harsh words over the weekend suggesting the Fed is engaging in "wishful thinking" in what it will take to tame inflation and that “Jay Powell said things that, to be blunt, were analytically indefensible ...." and that “...there is no conceivable way that a 2.5% interest rate, in an economy inflating like this, is anywhere near neutral.” So this debate will rage on but the winner in August may not be the winner by year end. Markets haven't had a chance to wind down for summer yet and maybe they won't get the chance with US payrolls on Friday, followed by CPI on Wednesday 10th. If nothing out of the ordinary occurs in these two prints though maybe we can have a quiet two or three weeks. However if payrolls are far from consensus and/or CPI is strong then we may have some fun and games in August. It’s a month of low liquidity and if something big happens it can be multiplied in such thin trading. Outside of payrolls, the other most important events this week include the manufacturing PMIs and ISM today, the RBA decision and US JOLTS tomorrow, services PMIs and ISM Wednesday, and the likely biggest hike from the BoE for 27 years alongside the increasingly important US jobless claims data on Thursday. Apart from that, earnings are still coming from all directions, but we are past halfway in the US with over 260 companies having reported. It’s 232 in the Stoxx 600. It might be hard to eclipse the big US tech week last week though. The other thing to look out for is whether US House Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan this week on her Asian trip. It could set off a major geopolitical incident if she does and domestic accusations of backing down to China if she doesn't given she'd previously said she would visit. The full day by day week ahead is at the end as usual on a Monday but let's preview the main highlights in detail with the big one being payrolls of course. Our US economists expect a 250k reading for nonfarm payrolls (down from 372k in June with consensus also at 250k) and for the unemployment rate to slightly decline to 3.5% from 3.6% (consensus 3.6%). Our economists think the gradual increase in continuing claims since last month is enough to slow the pace of job growth. Remember we did a CoTD on payrolls day last month showing that the first month of a recession on average has a negative payroll print whereas the months leading up to it don't (including R-1). See here for a reminder. This is one of the main reasons we don't think we're there yet in terms of a recession. Our favoured measure of the strength of the labour market has been the JOLTS data which next comes out tomorrow for June. The problem is that it is always one month behind other data. However it gives us a decent if slightly rear-view mirror look at job openings and labour market tightness. Moving on, the BoE's decision on Thursday will be a big event with our UK economists and consensus expecting a +50bps move, which will take the Bank Rate to 1.75% and become the largest single increase since 1995. It will likely also be accompanied by somewhat hawkish economic forecasts from the Bank. The team's full preview, including expectations on forward guidance and QT, can be found here. Before the BoE, our economists expect the RBA to also hike +50bps tomorrow. Regarding policy guidance, they expect the central bank to reiterate the need for higher interest rates, which would implicitly keep another +50bps hike in September among the options. Turning to corporate earnings, this week's line-up will feature a number of important commodities companies, including BP, Occidental Petroleum (tomorrow), ConocoPhillips and Glencore (Thursday). Travel & leisure firms like Marriott, Airbnb (tomorrow) and Booking (Wednesday) will be in the spotlight as well to assess trends in consumer spending on services. Notable carmakers reporting results will include Toyota (Thursday), BMW (Wednesday) and Ferrari (tomorrow). In healthcare, investors will be focused on Regeneron, Moderna (Wednesday), Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk and Bayer (Thursday). Other notable reporters will include Advanced Micro Devices, PayPal (tomorrow), Maersk (Wednesday) and Alibaba (Thursday). Asian equities are quiet at the start of the week but with China’s disappointing economic data pointing to further weakness in the world’s second biggest economy (more below). As I type, the Nikkei (+0.47%), Shanghai Composite (+0.15%), the CSI and the Kospi (+0.10%) are holding on to their gains helped by a strong US session on Friday. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-0.25%) is lower. Outside of Asia, DM stock futures are weaker with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.50%), NASDAQ 100 (-0.45%) and DAX (-0.25%) edging lower. Oil prices are around -1.5% lower post China data and uncertainty over the OPEC+ meeting this week. Separately, yields on 10yr USTs (-2.0bps) have moved lower, trading at 2.67%, as we go to press. Onto that China data, and factory activity expanded at a slower pace with the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI for July easing to 50.4 from 51.7 in June, below analysts’ expectations for a slight dip to 51.5 as growth momentum softened in output, new orders and employment. Over the weekend, China’s factory activity contracted unexpectedly in July with the official reading falling to 49.0 (50.3 expected) from 50.2 in June, underscoring the extent of the uncertainty around growth stemming from fresh virus flare-ups, declining global demand and property market risks. Onto last week now, the FOMC raised rates a super-charged 75bps for the second consecutive meeting, yet financial conditions eased as the market latched onto comments that the hiking cycle would slow at some point and that the Committee was paying heed to slowing activity data. On that news, the splashiest data of the week was the Q2 US GDP which showed the second consecutive quarter of contraction, spurring endless debates as to what constitutes a recession. In Europe, lower Nord Stream capacity continues to ratchet energy pressure higher. The perceived pivot in Fed communications along with slowing activity data drove a shallower pricing of global monetary policy, and thus a rally in global sovereign yields. 10yr Treasuries were -10.2bps lower (-2.7bps Friday), led by a -30.8bp decline in real yields, while 2yr Treasuries were -8.6bps lower on the week (+2.2bps Friday). Not to be outdone, 10yr bunds fell even more, declining -21.4bps (-0.9bp Friday), as the continent looks exposed to even larger potential external shocks. With less aggressive tightening expected, 10yr BTPs tightened -8.1bps versus bunds, -14.3bps of which came on Friday as the main populist far-right party Brothers of Italy, who are polling very strongly, were reported to be likely to adhere to EU budget rules if elected. The easing of expected tightening was a boon to equity markets, which staged big gains across the Atlantic. The S&P 500 was +4.26% higher (+1.42% on Friday) while the NASDAQ picked up +4.70% (+1.88%). Many of the mega cap tech companies reported this week in the US to mixed results. Advertising revenue was sluggish, but supply chain pressures seemed to ease which helped those facing retail customers. Across the board, it seemed like hiring was either slowing or plans were in place to start reducing hiring. European equities also enjoyed some respite from global policy tightening, with the STOXX 600 picking up +2.96% (+1.28% Friday), the DAX +1.74% (+1.52% Friday), and the CAC higher by +3.73% (+1.72% Friday). Despite slowing activity data, oil prices showed no signs of a demand slowdown, with Brent futures climbing +6.60% over the week (+2.68% Friday). On Friday’s data, the US Employment Cost Index increased +1.3%, above 1.2% expectations but a marginal deceleration from 1Q’s 1.4%. The final University of Michigan Sentiment reading was 51.5, versus 51.1 expectations, while year-ahead inflation expectations stayed at 5.2% even if longer term ones edged back up a tenth to 2.9%. Tyler Durden Mon, 08/01/2022 - 07:56.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeAug 1st, 2022

Futures Grind Higher With All Eyes On Red-Hot CPI

Futures Grind Higher With All Eyes On Red-Hot CPI After yesterday's last hour stock market puke prompted by a fake CPI "leak" that showed inflation rising more than double digits in June which sent spoos just over 3,800, US index futures advanced ahead of a report that will show inflation hitting a fresh four-decade high according to Bloomberg consensus which expects headline inflation to print 8.8%, ensuring another 75bps rate hike. Contracts on the S&P 500 rose 0.3% by 7:15 a.m. ET after the underlying gauge declined over the past three days. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.4% after the tech-heavy index shed 3% this week, reversing most of last week's gains. The dollar dropped from a 2 year high, bitcoin rose but held below $20,000 and WTI crude oil stabilized at about $96 a barrel after a tumble. Among notable pre-market movers, Twitter rose 1% after suing Elon Musk over his abandoned $44 billion takeover bid, accusing the billionaire of having buyer’s remorse after his fortune declined. Meanwhile, Atara Biotherapeutics tumbled 36% after the biotech firm gave an update on its multiple sclerosis therapy with Cowen strategists saying that the interim analysis of the ATA188 Phase 2 study was “inconclusive.” Here are other notable premarket movers: Stitch Fix (SFIX US) jumps 9.3% in premarket trading after J William Gurley, a board member and general partner at venture capital firm Benchmark, bought $5.43 million of shares in the company. Gurley’s purchase comes as the online personal-styling platform’s stock has fallen 73% this year. Atara Biotherapeutics (ATRA US) shares drop 41% in US premarket trading, after the biotech company gave an update on its multiple sclerosis therapy, with Cowen saying that the interim analysis of the Phase 2 study was “inconclusive” and Roth flagging potential “additional risks.” Humanigen (HGEN US) shares plummet as much as 76% in US premarket trading, after the biotech firm said that its Covid-19 drug trial didn’t achieve statistical significance on the primary endpoint, with Cantor Fitzgerald cutting its rating on Humanigen to neutral from overweight. Keep an eye on Apple (AAPL US) shares as Citi lowers its estimates for the company given cooling consumer spending trends amid macro woes and continued supply chain bottlenecks. Hannon Armstrong (HASI US) stocks could be active as analysts defended the climate-change investment firm after its shares slumped 19% on Tuesday. The losses followed a report from short seller Carson Block’s Muddy Waters Capital that criticized its accounting practices. Watch Alphabet (GOOGL US) stocks as Cowen trims 2022 Google Search and YouTube ad estimates, following checks that suggested that Search is seeing healthy demand but the business is decelerating, largely in line with expectations. US inflation is projected to have continued to heat up in June, hitting a fresh pandemic peak. The consumer price index probably increased 8.8% from a year earlier, marking the largest jump since 1981, as discussed some banks expected a slightly softer print although others sees headline CPI rising as much as 9.0%. The consumer-price reading will be a major decisive factor for the Fed in its upcoming meeting as it decides how much further it should tighten policy to tame soaring inflation. Its hawkish policy already stoked fears the economy is heading for a recession this year. “This is widely expected to be a really strong print,” Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, said on Bloomberg Television. “Even if it is not, I don’t think that changes the Fed’s perspective in a couple of weeks. We won’t have enough evidence that inflation is convincingly turning over.” Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund cut its growth projections for the US economy and warned that a broad-based surge in inflation poses “systemic risks” to both the country and the global economy. Traders are also on tenterhooks for the latest corporate earnings getting underway this week and monitoring for a brewing energy crisis in Europe if Russia cuts off gas supplies in the fallout from its invasion of Ukraine. After today's CPI, investor focus will turn to the start of the earnings season, which kicks off tomorrow with major Wall Street banks. Meanwhile in Europe, the region’s benchmark Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.5% while the Euro Stoxx 50 slumped as much as 1.2% before roughly halving losses, amid deteriorating economic outlook. Shares of insurance companies and automakers led the drop.. FTSE 100 and FTSE MIB lag on the recovery. Autos, insurance and travel are the worst-performing sectors. Here are the biggest movers: Saipem shares tumble as much as 45%, extending Tuesday’s 49% slump, after only 70% of its EU2 billion rights offering was taken up by investors, signaling low confidence in the engineering company’s turnaround plan. Svenska Cellulosa falls as much as 4.1% and DS Smith declines 2.7% as Exane BNP downgrades its ratings on both, saying it anticipates a robust 2Q for packaging, but a correction in pulp prices. Bayer drops as much as 3% after a US appeals court reinstated a lawsuit by a Roundup herbicide user who claims the company failed to warn him of cancer risks. Galp Energia falls as much as 2.8% following its second-quarter production update, with analysts saying volumes were softer than anticipated. Vontobel declines as much as 6%, and EFG falls as much as 5.2% after Citi cut both to sell and kept a buy rating on Julius Baer, saying that it still sees good value in Swiss banks and prefers larger players to independents. Evonik falls as much as 3.9% after Barclays cut its rating to equal-weight, saying that it sees opportunities in Brenntag and Lanxess among European chemicals stocks. Orion gains as much as 7.9% after the pharmaceutical company raised its FY outlook after announcing it plans to work with MSD on developing and commercializing ODM-208, a drug for prostate cancer. Outokumpu gains as much as 6.5% after the stainless steel producer sold the majority of its Long Products business, a transaction which Jefferies and Morgan Stanley describe as positive. Hugo Boss rises as much as 3.1% as Jefferies says the company appears to be outperforming its luxury peers, and that expectations of continued growth, “comfortable” guidance and a successful rebrand are starting to move the market. Verallia gains as much as 3.3% after being initiated with a buy rating at Jefferies, which says the glass-packaging maker’s discount to peers is “unjustified.” Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, led by the region’s technology shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.6%, halting a two-day slide that dragged the benchmark to the lowest level in two years on Tuesday. Tech names such as TSMC, and Meituan contributed the most to the rally. Information technology was the region’s best-performing sector as the Hang Seng Tech Index bounced back after its recent drops sent the measure into a technical correction.  Taiwan’s benchmark jumped nearly 3% as the government vowed to support the stock market for the first time since the early days of the pandemic. Equities posted moderate gains in South Korea and New Zealand after their central banks hiked interest rates by 50 basis points as expected. Thailand’s stock market was closed for a holiday.  “Central bankers, policy makers all over the world are gonna have to pick their spots on how much inflation they’re prepared to tolerate versus how much a growth downdraft they wanna create,” Ben Powell, chief APAC investment strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. In addition to today's data on consumer prices to assess what the Federal Reserve will do next, traders are also monitoring corporate earnings results in Asia for signs of any impact from China’s lockdowns during the second quarter. Japanese stocks advanced as investors await US data that may show inflation hit a fresh four-decade high. The Topix index rose 0.3% to 1,888.85 at the 3pm close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.5% to 26,478.77. Recruit Holdings Co. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.9%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,400 rose and 633 fell, while 137 were unchanged. “Japanese stocks will have a hard time finding a sense of direction before the US CPI announcement,” said Mitsushige Akino a senior executive officer at Ichiyoshi Asset Management.  In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index held near its highest level in more than two years and the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers as traders awaited US inflation data later on Wednesday for clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory. JPY and SEK are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, CHF and AUD outperform. EUR/USD stalls again, declining 6 pips shy of parity before recovering slightly.  Money markets raised bets on the pace of BOE rate hikes after the UK economy grew faster than the median estimate in May to ease fears of a recession. UK GDP rose by a surprisingly robust 0.5% amid a surge in visits to doctors and holiday bookings, after an 0.2% decline in April, a figure that was revised higher. New Zealand’s dollar initially fell and then erased losses after the central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points as economists forecast. The yen underperformed all its Group-of-10 peers amid expectations US CPI will be strong enough to keep wagers high for a continued aggressive rate-hike cycle by the Federal Reserve. Super-long sectors led drop in government bond yields after purchases by the Bank of Japan. In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 2.97% after falling two basis points on Tuesday. Cash TSYs are comparatively quiet ahead of today’s CPI release. German and UK curves bear-flatten, underperforming Treasuries. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund back near 200bps.  Gilts and Bunds fell, underperforming Treasuries. Money markets raised bets on the pace of BOE rate hikes after the UK economy grew faster than the median estimate in May to ease fears of a recession. In commodities, crude futures advance. WTI drifts 1.1% higher to trade near $96.90. Most base metals trade in the green; LME lead rises 1.1%, outperforming peers. LME zinc lags, dropping 0.2%. Spot gold is little changed at $1,726/oz To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US CPI release for June, as well as UK monthly GDP for May and Euro Area industrial production for May. Otherwise from central banks, the Bank of Canada will be making their latest policy decision, and the Federal Reserve will release their Beige Book. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,830.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 413.52 MXAP up 0.3% to 155.40 MXAPJ up 0.5% to 511.37 Nikkei up 0.5% to 26,478.77 Topix up 0.3% to 1,888.85 Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 20,797.95 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,284.29 Sensex down 0.5% to 53,636.37 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,621.56 Kospi up 0.5% to 2,328.61 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.16% Euro little changed at $1.0038 Brent Futures up 1.1% to $100.63/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,726.85 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 108.15 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The planned reopening of a key Russian gas pipeline next week may be a bigger deal for the euro than the first interest-rate hike in a decade by the ECB. Both are set for July 21. While the ECB’s plans to start lifting rates have been well flagged and hence priced in by markets, there’s more doubt over whether Russia will actually restore gas flows to Europe after maintenance on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is completed China will take advantage of the market-based adjustment mechanism of deposit rates and guide financial institutions to transmit the effect of falling deposit rates to their borrowers as part of efforts to lower real lending rates, Zou Lan, head of PBOC’s monetary policy department, says at a briefing The ECB is watching the euro-dollar exchange rate as recent lows can further stoke already record inflation, according to Governing Council member Francois Villeroy De Galhau A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive as the region shrugged off the weak lead from Wall St but with upside capped amid central bank rate hikes and ahead of upcoming key risk events including Chinese trade and US CPI data. ASX 200 traded indecisively as strength in tech was offset by losses in energy after the recent slump in oil prices. Nikkei 225 was underpinned by a weaker currency but with gains limited after a ramp-up in Tokyo COVID cases. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. gained but with the mainland choppy ahead of Chinese trade data, while Hong Kong tech stocks were bolstered after China approved 67 domestic games in July. Top Asian News China's Customs said foreign trade is expected to achieve stable growth and that trade growth in May and June reversed the declining trend, but noted that foreign trade faces instabilities and uncertain factors, according to Reuters. "Lanzhou in NW China's Gansu Province has sealed off its 4 districts for 7 days to curb the latest COVID19 flare-up which started from last Friday and has led to 143 infections as of 10 am on Wed", according to Global Times. European bourses are pressured and towards the mid-point of the morning's parameters as we await US inflation data, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%.  Sectors, are predominently in the red with defensively-inclined names lagging though Energy outperforms and is green amid benchmark action. Stateside, futures are modestly firmer but have been choppy with pre-CPI positioning underway; ES +0.2%. Alphabet (GOOGL) said, on July 12th, that due to the hiring progress already attained, will slow the hiring process for remainder of year, via Reuters; like all Cos, not immune to economic headwinds. Kroger (KR) is launching an annual membership, provides unlimited free deliveries on orders over USD 35 and fuel discounts of up-to USD 1/gallon alongside other savings. Top European News UK lawmakers are to push ahead with legislation to tear up the post-Brexit trade deal today, according to FT. Network Rail offered workers at two unions pay hikes in a bid to avert further crippling strikes, according to FT. Italy's Salvini says the League Party is not willing to remain in the government if the 5-Star Party quits, adding that if 5-Star does not back a Thursday confidence vote, Italy should call snap elections. Subsequently, Democratic Party is unwilling to form new governments without the 5-Star Party, according to a party source cited by Reuters. Geopolitical China's military said it monitored and drove away a US destroyer which entered the South China Sea Paracel Islands, while it added that the actions of the US military seriously violated China's sovereignty and security. Furthermore, the US military stated that USS Benfold asserted navigational rights and freedoms near the Paracel Islands consistent with international law, according to Reuters. US Navy says the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group is operating in the South China Sea. Venezuela detained at least three Americans earlier this year accused of attempting to enter the country illegally, according to sources cited by Reuters. Iran Foreign Ministry spokesperson says results of the negotiations with Saudi Arabia have been promising, sides have an interest to continue talks. Subsequently, Iran President Raisi says it will not retreat from its 'rightful' stance in talks to revive the 2015 JCPOA, state TV reported. Central Banks RBNZ hiked the OCR by 50bps to 2.50%, as expected, and said it remains appropriate to continue to tighten policy, while it will tighten conditions at a pace to maintain price stability and support maximum sustainable employment. RBNZ added the Committee is resolute in its commitment to ensuring price inflation returns to the 1%-3% target range and it agreed to lift the OCR to a level where it is confident consumer price inflation will settle within the target range but added that once aggregate supply and demand are more balanced, the OCR can return to a lower and more neutral level. Furthermore, the Committee agreed to maintain the approach of briskly lifting the OCR and remained comfortable with the projected path of the OCR it outlined in May, as well as noted that there are near-term upside risks to consumer prices and also medium-term downside risks to economic activity. BoK raised its Base Rate by 50bps to 2.25%, as expected, with the decision made unanimously. BoK stated that South Korea's 2022 growth will moderate further from an earlier projection and inflation will remain high for some time, as well as noted that inflation will surpass the May forecast for the entire of 2022 and that core inflation is to be higher than 4% for a considerable period. Furthermore, BoK Governor Rhee said more policy tightening of 25bps looks appropriate going forward should current inflation continue for the time being and that it is reasonable to expect rates at 2.75%-3.00% by year-end. ECB's Villeroy says it is not the EUR that is weak but the USD that is strong. FX Greenback grinds higher ahead of US inflation data, but remains restrained, DXY back above 108.000 within 108.020-390 range. Aussie regroups alongside base metals and awaits labour report for further impetus; AUD/USD approaching 0.6800 vs sub-0.6750 low. Franc forges safe-haven gains vs Dollar and Euro, USD/CHF below 0.9800 and EUR/CHF under 0.9850. Kiwi somewhat deflated after RBNZ maintained half-point tightening pace, guidance and OCR path, NZD/USD capped into 0.6150. Sterling underpinned by above-forecast UK data and remarks from BoE Governor Bailey leaning towards bigger than 25bp hike, Cable straddling 1.1900 and EUR/GBP pivoting 100 and 200 DMAs. Loonie looking for a BoC boost via 75bp rate increase and hawkish guidance, USD/CAD towards the low end of 1.3050-00 band with 1.57bln option expiries rolling off at the round number. Yen undermined by firmer US Treasury yields pre-CPI and post-weak 10-year note the auction, USD/JPY rebounds through 137.00 again. Yuan pares some losses after China’s trade surplus tops consensus and PBoC pledges to up support for real economy; USD/CNH and USD/CNY testing bids and support on either side of 6.7200. Fixed Income Debt fades from early EU highs irrespective of risk-off sentiment as clock ticks down to key US CPI data. Bunds pull up just ahead of 153.00, Gilts into 116.00 and T-note shy of 119-00. Italian and German supply relatively well received, but impending long bond refunding comes hot on the heels of tepid demand for 10 year issuance. Commodities Crude benchmarks are bid after a concerted pick-up in the European morning that occurred without any obvious fresh fundamental driver. US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +4.7mln (exp. -0.2mln), Gasoline +2.9mln (exp. -0.4mln), Distillates +3.2mln (exp. +1.6mln), Cushing +0.3mln. Libya's Government of National Unity decided to replace the NOC chairman and board, according to a government source. NOC later announced the lifting of the force majeure on exports from the Brega and Zueitina oil terminals, while it added that negotiations were conducted to allow exports from Es Sider port and resume output at the Al Waha and Mellita fields, according to Reuters. Eni (ENI IM) Chair says Italy will be able to replace 50% of Russian gas flows with other sources this winter, and 80% next winter, via Reuters citing a paper. Hungary Foreign Minister says it could purchase up to 700 MCM of gas on the market ahead of the heating season, in addition to long-term supply deal with Russia. IEA OMR: 2023 demand 101.3mln BPD, +2.1mln BPD; led by strong growth in non-OECD countries. 2022 demand cut by 200k BPD, seeing a rise of 1.7mln to 99.2mln BPD Spot gold is modestly firmer managing to capitalise on the session’s bout of USD easing, LME Copper has benefited from the generally constructive APAC tone though participants will remain cognisant of and cautious around the China-COVID situation. US Event Calendar 07:00: July MBA Mortgage Applications -1.7%, prior -5.4% 08:30: June CPI YoY, est. 8.8%, prior 8.6%; MoM, est. 1.1%, prior 1.0% 08:30: June CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 5.7%, prior 6.0%; MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.6% 08:30: June Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior -3.0%, revised -2.9% 08:30: June Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -3.9%, revised -4.0% 14:00: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 14:00: June Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$75b, prior -$174.2b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I’m supposed to be off for the next three days with the family but given how busy things are I’m delaying two of the days until August. However I can’t escape a Theme Park outing tomorrow so I’m still doing that. I hate Theme Parks and rollercoasters with a passion. Readers might remember the last time I went I had an argument with someone who pushed in with his whole family in the queue ahead of me. I was most disgruntled at the end of a long day and vowed never to return. However my kids love them. If it were up to me my preferences would dominate and we wouldn’t go but unfortunately my selfless wife puts our kids first. Probably a good thing!! I’ll be here now for the all important US CPI today but I’ll miss the ceremonial start of earnings season tomorrow with this week seeing a small selection of major US financials and consumer packaged goods companies reporting. My colleague Binky has just released his full preview, available here. He expects earnings to beat in the low single digits percentage region, below the long-run historical average of 5%. Earnings are likely to be 3.1% qoq along with downward revisions to forward estimates. Heading into earnings season, estimates have been revised lower for every sector but energy, which has experienced upgrades. Using a bottom-up approach, yoy EPS growth will come in at 5.7%. Heading into CPI and earnings, after markets had climbed a wall of worry since mid-June, they seem to be losing a bit of footing again over the last few days as fears of a recession dominate again, alongside fears of aggressive rate hikes by central banks, rising Covid cases in China and the prospect of Russia cutting off Europe’s gas. This gloomy backdrop saw the S&P 500 (-0.92%) lose ground for a 3rd day running, whilst those fears of weakening demand sent Brent crude oil prices back beneath $100/bbl and also led to day two of a new fresh sizeable rally in sovereign bonds. Oil is little changed in Asia trade with Brent and WTI futures almost flat at $99.76/bbl and $95.99/bbl respectively as we go to press. However, today’s main focus will almost certainly be on the US CPI release for June, which will set the stage for the Fed’s next decision in just two weeks’ time. Remember that it was last month’s much stronger-than-expected report that sparked a tumultuous market reaction that culminated in the Fed moving by 75bps at a single meeting for the first time since 1994, having previously only signalled a 50bps move. So any further surprises today could have a big impact. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for an above-consensus monthly reading for both headline CPI (+1.3%) and core CPI (+0.6%), which in turn would take the year-on-year headline CPI up to its highest level since 1981, at +9.0%. Although we’re expecting another strong inflation print today, ahead of that release there were actually growing signs of respite on the inflation front thanks to further losses amongst a number of key commodities. Brent Crude (-7.11%) and WTI (-7.93%) oil prices saw substantial losses, copper prices (-4.10%) hit a 19-month low and gold (-0.46%) hit a 9-month low. Indeed, the only major exception to that pattern was the usual suspect of European natural gas (+4.92%) which just about reversed the previous day’s decline following cuts to Norwegian capacity. Our research colleagues in Frankfurt published a detailed note yesterday on the gas supply issue (link here), where they run through 3 scenarios of how things might evolve, including what happens if Russia completely turns off the gas taps to Germany after the maintenance period that would involve gas being rationed during the winter months. Although many will welcome the decline in those commodities mentioned above, the bad news is that the reason they’re declining is because of recession fears, and yesterday saw a number of additional recessionary indicators flash with growing alarm. One in particular is the 2s10s curve, which has inverted before every one of the last 10 US recessions, and remains near its most inverted of this cycle so far at -8.5bps after dipping below -12bps intraday. We would stress that while we are the yield curve’s biggest fan, it usually takes a minimum of three quarters from inversion to recession so we still think it may take a bit of time from the first inversion in March to confirm the almost inevitable recession. For the 1s10s and the 2s5s curve, it was much the same story of being the most inverted so far this cycle, and the 3m10s curve reached its flattest since November 2020. And whilst the Fed have told us to focus on their preferred near-term forward spread (18m3m minus 3m), even that closed beneath 100bps for the first time so far this year at 94bps (from a peak of 270bps in early April), so these measures are all trending in the wrong direction from a recessionary standpoint. In terms of the absolute yield moves, the risk-off tone saw them move lower on both sides of the Atlantic. 10yr Treasury yields fell -2.4bps to 2.97% albeit having being as much as -9.6bps lower intraday. There was a discrete bounce in longer-dated Treasury yields following the 2bp tail in the 10yr auction. Yields are fairly stable in Asian trading. Meanwhile in Europe, those on 10yr bunds (-11.3bps), OATs (-12.8bps) and BTPs (-9.8bps) all fell back too, as concerns about the economic situation led investors to price in a less aggressive pace of monetary tightening over the coming months, particularly from the ECB. That also meant that the Euro itself moved ever closer to parity against the US Dollar yesterday, and you had to look to 5 decimal places to see that it just avoided that milestone, with an intraday low of $1.00003 during the European morning, ending the day just a hair lower versus the dollar, down -0.03% at $1.0037. European equities staged a modest comeback from Monday’s selloff, while US equities ended lower after flirting with gains all day. The STOXX 600 gained +0.49%, with the DAX performing a touch better at +0.57%, bringing the STOXX 600 to just under flat for the week, while the DAX is still -0.84% lower on the week. The S&P 500 fell -0.92%, after trading near unchanged most of the day. Theories abounded for the late turnaround. Underlying market technicals pointed to potential algorithmic selling programs, whilst rumours spread in some circles that the CPI report was leaked and revealed a +10% print. Officials disabused us of the latter, but it nevertheless speaks to the heightened anxiety markets are trading with around inflationary data. In terms of the breakdown, energy shares (-2.03%) were the clear underperformer, but a wide-breadth of shares took a dip lower in the afternoon, sending the NASDAQ (-0.95%), FANG+ (-1.01%), and Russell 2000 (-0.22%) all lower on the day. So no clear macro driver for equities yesterday, but again, today’s CPI will be instructive about the near-term path. Overnight in Asia equity markets are trading higher after recent losses. As I type, the Hang Seng (+0.81%) is leading gains across the region with the Kospi (+0.71%), Shanghai Composite (+0.36%), CSI (+0.26%), and the Nikkei (+0.33%) all trading up. Looking ahead, equity futures in the US point to a steady start with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.14%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.21%) moving higher. Moving on to monetary policy action, the Bank of Korea (BOK) increased rates by 50bps, bringing the benchmark rate to 2.25% in order to help pullback inflation from a 24-yr high of 6%. The unprecedented rate hike size comes even as the central bank forecasts the country’s growth rate to lag “below the May forecast of 2.7%. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in an expected move also increased its official cash rate (OCR) by 50bps for a third straight meeting to 2.5%. Staying in Asia, another risk that’s been in a few headlines again is Covid. Partly this is because of the ongoing situation in China, where a steady stream of cases have been reported over recent days. But in addition to that, the US is considering whether to expand the recommendation of the second booster to all adults in light of the BA.5 omicron variant’s spread, and White House coronavirus coordinator Ashish Jha said that these discussions “have been going on for a while”. Of particular concern to officials, the BA.5 seems to evade immunity provided from prior infections. Here in the UK, it’ll be another eventful day on the political scene as the first ballot of MPs takes place in the Conservative leadership election, which will also decide the next Prime Minister. 8 candidates will be on today’s ballot, and former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is currently leading when it comes to MP’s endorsements, with yesterday seeing him gain that of Deputy PM Dominic Raab, among others. Candidates will need the support of at least 30 MPs today to progress onto the next ballot that takes place tomorrow. There wasn’t much data yesterday, but the releases we did get only added to negative sentiment. First the German ZEW survey saw the expectations reading fall to its lowest level since the sovereign debt crisis at -53.8 (vs. -40.5 expected), whilst the current situation reading fell to -45.8 (vs. -34.5 expected). Separately, the NFIB’s small business optimism index from the US fell to 89.5 (vs. 92.5 expected). To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US CPI release for June, as well as UK monthly GDP for May and Euro Area industrial production for May. Otherwise from central banks, the Bank of Canada will be making their latest policy decision, and the Federal Reserve will release their Beige Book. Tyler Durden Wed, 07/13/2022 - 07:57.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytJul 13th, 2022

Futures Slide On Renewed China Covid Lockdown Fears As Traders Brace For Q2 Earnings, Red Hot CPI

Futures Slide On Renewed China Covid Lockdown Fears As Traders Brace For Q2 Earnings, Red Hot CPI US equity futures and global markets started the second week of the 3rd quarter on the back foot, with spoos sliding on Monday morning as traders were spooked by fears that Covid may be making a return to China leading to more virus restrictions sending Chinese stocks tumbling the most in a month, amid growing concern about an ugly second-quarter earnings season which begins this week. A closely watched CPI print on Wednesday which is expected to rise again, will also keep markets on edge. Contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 traded 0.7% lower, suggesting last week’s rally in US stocks my stall as concerns about China’s Covid resurgence weigh on risk appetite. The dollar jumped, reversing two weeks of losses and trading around the highest level since 2020 while Treasuries gained. Bitcoin dropped, oil declined and iron ore extended losses on concern about the demand outlook in China. Adding to the risk-off mood were the latest covid news out of China, whose stocks had their worst day in about a month as a Covid resurgence combined with fresh fines for the tech giants sent investors running for the door.  Both the Hang Seng and Shanghai traded negative after a rise in Shanghai’s COVID-19 cases prompted authorities to declare more high-risk areas and the city also reported its first case of the BA.5 omicron subvariant, as well as two more rounds of mass testing in at least 9 districts. Casino stocks were heavily pressured in Hong Kong after Macau announced to shut all non-essential businesses including casinos, while shares in tech giants Tencent and Alibaba weakened after reports that they were among the companies fined by China’s antitrust watchdog concerning reporting of past transactions. There was more bad news out China including a rejection by China Evergrande Group’s bondholders on a proposal to extend debt payment, as well as a warning by a prominent investor’s wife that a key lithium maker’s stock is overvalued. The Chinese selloff is a reminder that the nation’s Covid Zero policy and lingering uncertainty toward tech crackdowns remain key risks for investors betting on a sustained rebound in Chinese shares. The Hang Seng China gauge has recorded just one positive session in the last eight after rallying nearly 30% from a March low.  Anyway, back to the US where in premarket trading, Twitter shares slumped in premarket trading after Elon Musk terminated his $44 billion takeover approach for the social media company. Some other social media stocks were lower too, while Digital World Acquisition (DWAC US), the SPAC tied to Donald Trump, jumps as much as 30%. Bank stocks are also lower in premarket trading Monday amid a broader decline in risk assets as investors await the release of key inflation data later this week. S&P 500 futures are also lower, falling as much as 1%, while the US 10-year Treasury yield holds above the 3% level. In corporate news, UBS is considering a plan to promote Iqbal Khan to sole head of the bank’s global wealth management business. Meanwhile, Klarna is shelling out loans for milk and gas with cash-strapped customers looking for ways to cover basic necessities. Here are some other notable premarket movers: US-listed Macau casino operators and Chinese tourism stocks fall after local authorities in the gambling hub shut almost all business premises as a Covid-19 outbreak in the area worsened. Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) down 3.5%, MGM Resorts (MGM US) -3.5%, Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) -3.1%. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks were lower after the latest MLIV Pulse survey suggested that the token is more likely to tumble to $10,000, cutting its value roughly in half, than it is to rally back to $30,000. Crypto stocks that are down include: Marathon Digital (MARA US) -6%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) -4.5%, Coinbase (COIN US) -3.8%. Lululemon (LULU US) cut to underperform and Under Armour (UAA US) downgraded to hold by Jefferies in a note on athletic apparel firms, with buy-rated Nike (NKE US) “still best-in-class.” Lululemon drops 1.8% in US premarket trading, Under Armour -3.1% Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on Fastly (FSLY US) to underweight from equal-weight, citing a less favorable risk/reward scenario heading into the second half of the year. Shares down 5.2% in premarket. Price pressures, a wave of monetary tightening and a slowing global economy continue to shadow markets. the June CPI print reading on Wedensday is expected to get closer to 9%, a fresh four-decade high, buttressing the Federal Reserve’s case for a jumbo July interest-rate hike. Company earnings will shed light on recession fears that contributed to an $18 trillion first-half wipe-out in global equities. “The real earnings hit will come in the second half as we’re hearing from companies, especially retailers, saying they’re already seeing weakness from consumers,” Ellen Lee, portfolio manager at Causeway Capital Management LLC, said on Bloomberg Television. The Stoxx Europe 600 index pared a decline of more than 1% as an advance for utilities offset losses for carmakers and miners. The Euro Stoxx 50 was down 0.8% as of 10:30 a.m. London time, having dropped as much as 1.9% shortly after the cash open. DAX and CAC underperform at the margin. Autos, miners and consumer products are the worst-performing sectors.  Copper stocks sank as fear of global recession continues to suppress metals prices; miners suffered: Anglo American -5.1%, Antofagasta -5.3%, Aurubis -3.7%, Salzgitter -5.1%. Copper was hit hard, with futures down 1.9% today. Here are the top European movers: Dufry shares rise as much as 11%, while Autogrill falls as much as 9.4% after the Swiss duty-free store operator agreed to buy the Italian company from the billionaire Benetton family, with the offer price being below Autogrill’s closing price on Friday. Danske Bank declines as much as 6.4% after the lender cut its outlook for the year. Fincantieri advances as much as 7% after the Italian shipbuilder said it secured an ultra-luxury cruise ship order that will be built by the end of 2025. Joules drops as much as 25% after the British retailer said it hired KPMG to advise on how to shore up its cash position. MJ Gleeson jumps as much as 7.4% after the homebuilder published a trading update stating that it sees full-year earnings being “significantly ahead of expectations.” Peel Hunt says it was a “strong finish to the year.” Uniper falls as much as 12%, adding to its declines in recent weeks, after the German utility last week asked the government for a bailout. Wizz Air declines as much as 5.3% after the low-cost carrier provided a 1Q update, with ticket fares down 12% versus FY20. Nordex rises as much as 7.8%, reversing early losses after the wind-turbine maker said it plans to raise EU212m via a fully-underwritten rights issue. Mining stocks sink as fear of global recession continues to suppress metals prices. Anglo American and Antofagasta are among the decliners. “Earnings expectations will come down this year and probably next year as well, which is somewhat priced,” Barclays Private Bank Chief Market Strategist Julien Lafargue said on Bloomberg Television. “The question is how big are the cuts we are going to see,” he added. The declines in Europe came as Chinese stocks had their worst day in about a month as the Covid resurgence combined with fresh fines for tech giants hit markets Earlier in the session, Asian stocks tumbled as resurging Covid-19 cases in China dented investor sentiment and raised fears of lockdowns that could hurt growth and corporate earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.1%, erasing an earlier gain of as much as 0.5%. Chinese stocks had their worst day in about a month as a Covid resurgence combined with fresh fines for the tech giants sent investors running for the door. Japan was a bright spot, buoyed by the prospect of administrative stability after the ruling coalition expanded its majority in an upper house election. Alibaba and Tencent dragged the gauge the most after China’s watchdog fined the internet firms. All but two sectors declined, with materials and consumer discretionary sectors leading the retreat. Chinese stocks were the region’s notable losers, with benchmarks in Hong Kong slumping about 3% and those in mainland China down more than 1%. A bevy of bad news from the world’s second-largest economy ahead of major economic data releases later this week dampened the mood. The first BA.5 sub-variant case was reported in Shanghai in another challenge to authorities struggling to counter a Covid-19 flare-up in the financial hub. Macau shuttered almost all casinos for a week from Monday as virus cases remain unabated.  “Sentiment got weakened again as Covid-19 cases spread again in China,” said Cui Xuehua, a China equity analyst at Meritz Securities in Seoul. “There are also worries about lockdowns as companies will start reporting their earnings.”   Meanwhile, benchmarks in Japan outperformed the region, gaining more than 1% following the ruling bloc’s big election victory.   Traders in Asia are awaiting for a set of data from the world’s second-largest economy this week, including its growth and money supply figures. Also on the watch are corporate earnings, which would give investors more clues about the impact of lockdowns in China and rising costs of goods and services. Japanese equities climbed after the ruling coalition expanded its majority in an upper house election held Sunday, two days after the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.  The Topix index rose 1.4% to 1,914.66 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 1.1% to 26,812.30. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 1.9%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,862 rose and 256 fell, while 52 were unchanged. “In the next two years or so, the government will be able to make some drastic policy changes and if they don’t go off in the wrong direction, the stability of the administration will be a major factor in attracting funds to the Japanese market,” said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.1% to close at 6,602.20, with miners and banks contributing the most to its drop. All sectors declined, except for health. EML Payments was the worst performer after its CEO resigned. Costa slumped after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock. The produce company also said it’s faced quality issues from weather. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.6% to 11,106.14 India’s benchmark stock index declined following the start of the first quarter earnings season, with bellwether Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. disappointing amid worsening cost pressures faced by Indian companies.  The S&P BSE Sensex Index fell 0.2% to 54,395.23 in Mumbai, after posting its biggest weekly advance since April on Friday, helped by a recent correction in key commodity prices. The NSE Nifty 50 Index ended little changed on Monday.  Tata Consultancy contributed the most to the Sensex’s drop, falling 4.6%, its sharpest decline in seven weeks. Bharti Airtel slipped as Adani Group’s surprise announcement of participating in a 5G airwaves auction potentially challenges its telecom business. Still, 15 of the 19 sub-sector gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by power producers. Software exporter HCL Technologies Ltd. slumped more than 4% before its results on Tuesday. In FX, the pound fell as the race to replace Boris Johnson as UK premier heats up. Over in Europe, the main conduit for Russian gas goes down for 10-day maintenance on Monday. Germany and its allies are bracing for President Vladimir Putin to use the opportunity to cut off flows for good in retaliation for the West’s support of Ukraine following Russia’s invasion. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index snapped a two-day decline as the greenback rose against all of its Group-of-10 peers. The Norwegian krone and the Australian dollar were the worst performers. The Aussie declined amid the greenback’s strength, and poor sentiment triggered by Covid news and political strife with China. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has ruled out complying with a list of demands from the Chinese government to improve relations between the two countries. Shanghai reported its first case of the BA.5 sub-variant on Sunday, warning of “very high” risks as the city’s rising Covid outbreak sparks fears of a return to its earlier lockdown. The yen dropped to a 24-year low above 137 per dollar. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s strong election victory presents him with a three-year time frame to pursue his own agenda of making capitalism fairer and greener, with no need to quickly change course on economic policy including central bank stimulus In rates, Treasuries are slightly richer across the curve with gains led by the front end, following a wider rally seen across bunds and, to a lesser extent, gilts as stocks drop. Sentiment shifts to second-quarter earnings season, while focus in the US will be on Tuesday’s inflation print. Bunds lead gilts and Treasuries higher amid haven buying. Treasury yields richer by up to 3.5bp across front end of the curve, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by almost 2bp; 10-year yields around 3.06%, with bunds and gilts trading 3bp and 1bp richer in the sector.  Auctions are front loaded, with 3-year note sale today, followed by 10- and 30-year Tuesday and Wednesday. Auctions resume with $43b 3-year note sale at 1pm ET, followed by $33b 10-year and $19b 30-year Tuesday and Wednesday. WI 3-year around 3.095% is above auction stops since 2007 and ~17bp cheaper than June’s stop-out. Bitcoin caught a downdraft from the cautious start to the week in global markets, falling as much as 2.6% but holding above $20,000. In commodities, crude futures decline. WTI trades within Friday’s range, falling 1.3% to trade near $103.48. Base metals are mixed; LME copper falls 1.4% while LME lead gains 1.4%. Spot gold maintains the narrow range seen since Thursday, falling roughly $4 to trade near $1,739/oz. It is a quiet start tot he week otherwise, with nothing scheduled on the US calendar today. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 3,877.75 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 413.75 MXAP down 0.9% to 157.30 MXAPJ down 1.6% to 516.87 Nikkei up 1.1% to 26,812.30 Topix up 1.4% to 1,914.66 Hang Seng Index down 2.8% to 21,124.20 Shanghai Composite down 1.3% to 3,313.58 Sensex down 0.2% to 54,349.37 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.1% to 6,602.16 Kospi down 0.4% to 2,340.27 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.28% Euro down 0.6% to $1.0122 Brent Futures down 2.2% to $104.66/bbl Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,738.11 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.47% to 107.51 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Foreign Secretary Liz Truss entered the race to replace Boris Johnson as UK premier, the latest cabinet minister to make her move in an already fractious contest Price action in the spot market Friday for the euro was all about short-term positioning, options show The Riksbank needs to prevent high inflation becoming entrenched in price- and wage-setting, and to ensure that inflation returns to the target, it says in minutes from latest monetary policy meeting The probability of a euro-area economic contraction has increased to 45% from 30% in the previous survey of economists polled by Bloomberg, and 20% before Russia invaded Ukraine. Germany, one of the most- vulnerable members of the currency bloc to cutbacks in Russian energy flows, is more likely than not to see economic output shrink ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said a new tool to keep debt-market turmoil at bay as interest rates rise may not need to be used if it’s powerful enough to persuade investors not to test it The number of UK households facing acute financial strain has risen by almost 60% since October and is now higher than at any point during the pandemic A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly lower as the region digested last Friday’s stronger than expected NFP data in the US, with sentiment also mired by COVID-19 woes in China. ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in tech and the mining-related sectors, while hopes were dashed regarding an immediate improvement in China-Australia ties following the meeting of their foreign ministers. Nikkei 225 bucked the trend amid a weaker currency and the ruling coalition’s strong performance at the Upper House elections, but with gains capped after Machinery Orders contracted for the first time in 3 months. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded negative amid COVID concerns after a rise in Shanghai’s COVID-19 cases prompted authorities to declare more high-risk areas and the city also reported its first case of the BA.5 omicron subvariant, as well as two more rounds of mass testing in at least 9 districts. Casino stocks were heavily pressured in Hong Kong after Macau announced to shut all non-essential businesses including casinos, while shares in tech giants Tencent and Alibaba weakened after reports that they were among the companies fined by China’s antitrust watchdog concerning reporting of past transactions. Top Asian News Shanghai’s COVID-19 cases continued to increase which prompted authorities to declare more high-risk areas and is fuelling fears that China’s financial hub may tighten movement restrictions again, according to Bloomberg. In relevant news, Shanghai reported its first case of the BA.5 omicron subvariant and authorities ordered two more rounds of mass testing in at least 9 districts. An official from China's Shanghai says authorities have classified additional areas as high risk areas. Macau will shut all non-essential businesses including casinos this week due to the COVID-19 outbreak, according to Reuters. It was separately reported that Hong Kong is considering a health code system similar to mainland China to fight COVID. China’s Foreign Minister Wang said he had a candid and comprehensive exchange with US Secretary of State Blinken, while he called for the US to cancel additional tariffs on China as soon as possible and said the US must not send any wrong signals to Taiwan independence forces, according to Reuters. US Secretary of State Blinken stated that the US expects US President Biden and Chinese President Xi will have the opportunity to speak in the weeks ahead, according to Reuters. US Commerce Secretary Raimondo said cutting China tariffs will not tame inflation and that many factors are pushing prices higher, according to FT. China’s antitrust watchdog fined companies including Alibaba (9988 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) regarding reporting of past deals, according to Bloomberg. Japan's ruling coalition is poised to win the majority of seats contested in Sunday's upper house election and is projected to win more than half of the 125 Upper House seats contested with a combined 76 seats and the LDP alone are projected to win 63 seats, according to an NHK exit poll cited by Reuters. Japanese PM Kishida said that they must work toward reviving Japan’s economy and they will take steps to address the pain from rising prices, while he added they will focus on putting a new bill that can be discussed in parliament when asked about constitutional revision and noted that they are not considering new COVID-19 restrictions now, according to Reuters. European bourses are pressured, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, but will off post-open lows amid a gradual pick-up in sentiment. Pressure seeped in from APAC trade amid further China-COVID concerns amid a relatively limited docket to start the week. Stateside, futures are directionally in-fitting but with magnitudes less pronounced with earnings season underway from Tuesday; ES -0.4%. Toyota (7203 JP) announces additional adjustments to its domestic production for July; volume affected by the adjustment will be around 4000 units, global production plan to remain unchanged, via Reuters. Top European News Fitch affirmed European Stability Mechanism at AAA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Greece at BB; Outlook Stable, while it cut Turkey from BB- to B+; Outlook Negative. UK Companies are bracing for a recession this year with multiple companies said to have begun “war gaming” for a recession, according to FT. In other news, local leaders warned that England’s bus networks could shrink by as much as a third as the government’s COVID-19 subsidies end and commercial operators withdraw from unprofitable routes, according to FT. Senior Tory party figures are reportedly seeking to narrow the leadership field quickly, according to FT. It was separately reported that only four Tory party leadership candidates are expected to remain by the end of the week under an accelerated timetable being drawn up by the 1922 Committee of backbenchers, according to The Times. UK Chancellor Zahawi, Transport Minister Shapps, Foreign Secretary Truss, junior Trade Minister Mordaunt, Tory MPs Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid have announced their intentions to run for party leader to replace UK PM Johnson, while Defence Secretary Wallace decided to not run for PM and several have declared the intention to cut taxes as PM, according to The Telegraph, Evening Standard and Reuters. FX Buck firmly bid after strong US jobs report and pre-CPI on Wednesday that could set seal on another 75bp Fed hike this month, DXY towards top of 107.670-070 range vs last Friday's 107.790 high. Aussie undermined by rising Covid case count in China’s Shanghai, AUD/USD loses grip of 0.6800 handle Yen drops to fresh lows against Greenback after BoJ Governor Kuroda reiterates dovish policy stance amidst signs of slowing Japanese growth, USD/JPY reaches 137.28 before waning. Euro weak due to heightened concerns that Russia may cut all gas and oil supplies, EUR/USD eyes bids ahead of 1.0100. Pound down awaiting Conservative Party leadership contest and comments from BoE Governor Bailey, Cable under 1.2000 and losing traction around 1.1950. Hawkish Riksbank minutes help Swedish Crown avoid risk aversion, but Norwegian Krona declines irrespective of stronger than forecast headline inflation; EUR/SEK sub-10.7000, EUR/NOK over 10.3200. Yuan soft as Shanghai raises more areas to high-risk level; USD/CNH and USD/CNY nearer 6.7140 peaks than troughs below 6.6900 and 6.7000 respectively. Fixed Income Debt regains poise after post-NFP slide, with Bunds leading the way between 151.00-149.75 parameters Gilts lag within 114.94-33 range awaiting Conservative leadership contest and comments from BoE Governor Bailey 10 year T-note firm inside 118-00+/117-18+ bounds ahead of USD 43bln 3 year auction Commodities Crude benchmarks are curtailed amid the COVID situation with broader developments limited and heavily focused on Nord Stream. French Economy and Finance Minister Le Maire warned there is a strong chance that Moscow will totally halt gas supplies to Europe, according to Politico. Canada will grant a sanctions waiver to return the repaired Russian turbine to Germany needed for maintenance on the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline but will expand sanctions against Russia’s energy sector to include industrial manufacturing. The US does not expect any specific announcements on oil production at this week’s US-Saudi summit, according to FT sources. JPMorgan (JPM) sees crude prices in the low USD 100s in H2 2022, falling to high USD 90s in 2023. Spot gold remains relatively resilient, torn between the downbeat risk tone and the USD's modest advances; attention on the metal's reaction if DXY surpasses Friday's best. Copper pulls back as Los Bambas returns to full output and on the China readacross. US Event Calendar Nothing major scheduled Central Banks 14:00: Fed’s Williams Takes Part in Discussion on Libor Transition DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap If you're in Europe over the next week good luck coping with the heatwave. In the UK I read last night that there's a 30% chance that we will see the hottest day ever over that period. The warning signs are always there when at 5am you're sweating and not just because of the immense effort put in on the EMR. Talking of red hot, it's that time of the month again where all roads point to US CPI which will be released exactly half way through the European week. This will be followed by the US PPI release (Thursday) and the University of Michigan survey for July on Friday where inflation expectations will be absolutely key. With US Q2 GDP currently tracking negative Friday's retail sales and industrial production could still help swing it both ways. Staying with the US it's time for Q2 earnings with a few high profile financials reporting. This is a very important season (aren't they all) as the collapse in equities so far in 2022 is largely due to margin compression and not really earnings weakness. Elsewhere China’s Q2 GDP on Friday alongside their main monthly big data dump is a highlight as we see how data is rebounding after the spike in Covid. In Europe, it will be a data-packed week for the UK. Going through some of this in more detail now and US CPI is the only place to start. Our economists note that while gas prices fell in the second half of June, the first half strength will still be enough to help the headline CPI print (+1.33% forecast vs. +0.97% previously) be strong on the month but with core (+0.64% vs. +0.63%) also strong. They have the headline YoY rate at 9.0% (from 8.6%) while core should tick down from 6.0% to 5.8%. Aside from an array of Fed speakers, investors will be paying attention to speeches from the BoE Governor Bailey (today and tomorrow). Markets will be also anticipating the Bank of Canada's decision on Wednesday, and another +50bps hike is expected based on Bloomberg's median estimate. Finally, G20 central bankers and finance ministers will gather in Bali on July 15-16. In Europe, it will be a busy week for the UK, with monthly May GDP, industrial production and trade data due on Wednesday, among other indicators. Germany's ZEW Survey for July (tomorrow) will also be in focus as European gas prices continue to be on a tear amid risks of Russian supply cut-offs. Speaking of which, Nord Stream 1 will be closed from today to July 21st for maintenance with much anticipation as to what happens at the end of this period. Elsewhere, Eurozone's May industrial production (Wednesday) and trade balance (Friday) will also be due. Finally, as Q2 earnings releases near for key US and European companies, key US banks will provide an early insights on the economic backdrop and consumer spending patterns. Results will be due from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley (Thursday), Citi and BlackRock (Friday). In tech, TSMC's report on Thursday may provide more insight into the state of supply-demand imbalance in semiconductors. In consumer-driven companies, PepsiCo (tomorrow) and Delta (Wednesday) will also release their results. The rest of the day by day week ahead is it the end as usual. Asian equity markets are starting the week mostly lower on rising concerns around a fresh Covid flare-up in China as Shanghai reported its first case of the highly infectious BA.5 omicron sub-variant on Sunday. Across the region, the Hang Seng (-2.89%) is the largest underperformer amid a broad sell-off in Chinese tech shares after China imposed fines on several companies including Tencent and Alibaba for not adhering to anti-monopoly rules on disclosures of transactions. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (-1.50%) and CSI (-2.05%) both are trading sharply lower whilst the Kospi (-0.30%) is also weaker after see-sawing in early trade. Bucking the trend is the Nikkei (+1.02%) after Japan’s ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, Komeito, expanded its majority in the upper house in the country’s parliamentary vote held on Sunday and following the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last week. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are pointing to a weaker start with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.60%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.85%) moving lower. Early morning data showed that Japan’s core machine orders dropped -5.6% m/m in May (v/s -5.5% expected) and against an increase of +10.8% in the previous month. Over the weekend, China’s factory gate inflation (+6.1% y/y) cooled to a 15-month low in June (v/s +6.0% expected) compared to a +6.4% rise in May. Additionally, consumer prices rose +2.5% y/y in June (v/s +2.4% expected), widening from a +2.1% gain in May and to the highest in 23 months. Elsewhere, oil prices are lower with Brent futures down -0.36% at $106.63/bbl and WTI futures (-0.77%) at $103.98/bbl as I type. Treasury yields are less than a basis point higher at the moment. Recapping last week now and a return to slightly more optimistic data boosted yields and equities, as central bank pricing got a bit more hawkish after a dovish run. More pessimistically, natural gas and electricity prices in Europe skyrocketed, as another bout of supply fears gripped the market. Elsewhere, the resignation of Prime Minister Johnson left a lot of questions about the medium-term policy path for the UK. After global growth fears intensified at the beginning of the month, a combination of stronger production and labour market data allayed short-term aggressive slow down fears. This sent 10yr Treasury and bund yields +20.6bps (+9.1bps Friday) and +11.3bps (+2.7bps Friday) higher last week. In the US, the better data coincided with expectations that the Fed would be able to tighten policy even more, which drove 2yr yields +27.2bps higher (+9.1bps Friday), and drove the 2s10s yield curve into inversion territory, closing the week at -2.5bps. The market is still anticipating that the FOMC will reach its terminal rate this cycle around the end of the first quarter next year, but that rate was +24.4bps (+12.2bps Friday) higher over the week. A large part of the jump in yields came on Friday following the much stronger than expected nonfarm payrolls figures, which climbed +372k in June, versus expectations of +265k. It’s hard to have a recession with that much job growth, so hiking will continue. Elsewhere in the print, average hourly earnings were in line at 0.3%, with the prior month revised higher to 0.4%, while the unemployment rate stayed at an historically tight 3.6% as consensus expected. Contrary to the US, yield curves were steeper in Europe, with 2yr bund yields managing just a +1.1bp climb (-3.1bps Friday). The continent had more immediate concerns in the form of a potential energy crisis. Fears that Russia would use the planned Nord Stream maintenance period beginning this week as a chance to squeeze supplies, alongside a now averted strike in Norway, sent European natural gas prices +14.44% higher (-4.24% Friday), ending the week at €175 per megawatt-hour, levels last rivaled during the initial invasion of Ukraine. German electricity prices also took off, increasing +20.26% (-7.54% Friday), setting off fears of a genuine energy crisis on the continent. That, combined with more expected Fed tightening priced in versus the ECB over the week, drove the euro -2.23% (+0.21% Friday) lower versus the US dollar, to $1.018, the closest to parity the single currency has come in over two decades. The fears were somewhat tempered by the end of the week, when it was reported that Canada would send a necessary turbine to Russia via Germany, enabling Russia to in theory remit gas supply back to Germany post the shutdown. Through all the macro noise the S&P 500 posted its 12th weekly gain of the year, climbing +1.94% (-0.08% Friday), driven by a particularly strong performance among tech and mega-cap stocks, with the NASDAQ (+4.56%, +0.12% Friday) and FANG+ (+5.82%, -0.22% Friday) both outperforming. European equities also managed to climb despite the energy fears, with the STOXX 600 gaining +2.35% (+0.51% Friday), the DAX gaining +1.58% (+1.34% Friday), and the CAC +1.72% higher (+0.44% Friday). UK equities underperformed, with the FTSE 100 gaining just +0.38% (+0.10% Friday). The pound was in the middle of the pack in terms of G10 currency performance versus the US dollar, however losing -0.53% (+0.05% Friday). Tyler Durden Mon, 07/11/2022 - 08:03.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytJul 11th, 2022

Futures, Yields Slide In Recessionary Start To New Quarter

Futures, Yields Slide In Recessionary Start To New Quarter As DB's Jim Reid puts it "if you want the good news this morning it's that H1 is now finally over. If you want the bad news it's that there's not much good news around as we start H2 and US equity futures are already down around a percent in the first few hours of the new half year. " Indeed, just when you thoughts stocks couldn't possibly slide any more after just concluding the worst first half in 52 years... ... and with investor and consumer sentiment at record lows, you'd be shocked to learn that futures and stocks started the new month and quarter by plumbing fresh lows as fears of soaring inflation and tumbling earnings boosted concerns about an imminent recession, and the resulting risk aversion lifted bonds and havens and sent risk sliding.  The "Big Short" Michael Burry said we may only be about halfway through the market's decline... Adjusted for inflation, 2022 first half S&P 500 down 25-26%, and Nasdaq down 34-35%, Bitcoin down 64-65%. That was multiple compression. Next up, earnings compression. So, maybe halfway there. — Cassandra B.C. (@michaeljburry) June 30, 2022 ... while Goldman was also downbeat, seeing global equities selling off further in the near term. As of 730am, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 pointed to declines of 0.3%, having shaved off as much as a 1% drop earlier... ... while 10-year US Treasury yield slid below 3% to the lowest since early June as markets now price in a record 10bps in rate cuts in Q1 2023 with markets confident the Fed will have to pivot to defeat the coming recession. Every Group-of-10 currency fell against the dollar and the yen, traditional havens, while bitcoin reversed a modest attempt at a breakout that briefly pushed it back over $20K. In premarket trading, shares of US chip companies fell after Micron Technology issued a downbeat forecast on weaker demand for phones and computers. Bank stocks are also lower in premarket trading, putting them on track for their fifth straight day of losses amid a broader slump in equity markets. Other notable premarket movers: Kohl’s (KSS US) plunges 15% in US premarket trading after CNBC reported it’s ending sale talks with Vitamin Shoppe owner Franchise Group. Semiconductor companies are falling on Friday after Micron Technology issued a weak forecast for the current quarter due to lower demand for phones and computers. Micron (MU US) -5.5%, Nvidia -1.3% (NVDA US), Qualcomm (QCOM US) -0.7%. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks could be active again on Friday as Bitcoin dip buyers are triggering a rally for the largest digital token. Riot Blockchain (RIOT US), Marathon Digital (MARA US) edge up 2.4% and 2.6%, respectively, in premarket. XPeng (XPEV US) burning cash in the short-term is unavoidable, Nomura says in a note that downgrades the Chinese EV maker to neutral from buy. Shares down 0.2% premarket. Risk assets continued to be the target of sellers Friday as recession worries overtake concern about runaway inflation. With Federal Reserve policymakers resolute on getting price growth back to their 2% target, investors are assessing the hit to the economy from harsh rate hikes. “Inflation is the key focus of central bankers; investors losing money is way down their list of concerns,” Chris Iggo, chief investment officer at AXA IM Core, wrote in a note to clients. “Interest rate and inflation markets are taking the view that what is priced in terms of monetary tightening will be enough to bring inflation down, but in order for that to happen, there also needs to be a cost to growth.” Meanwhile, both stocks and bonds were rocked by outflows this week, reflecting investor fears about hawkish central bank policy. About $5.8 billion exited global stock funds in the week through June 29, Bank of America said, citing EPFR Global data. Bonds had redemptions of $17 billion. Separately, global companies have pulled more debt sales in the past six months than in all of 2020. More than 70 deals have been postponed or canceled so far in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In Europe, markets reversed sharp opening losses with the Stoxx 600 briefly turning green before sliding 0.5% lower with retail and utility names supporting on the recovery. Bund yields rose after data showed euro-area inflation hit a fresh record, surpassing expectations.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today: European airlines rise on Friday, paring some declines from previous sessions, as oil is headed for the third straight weekly drop on concerns that a potential recession will hurt demand. Wizz Air rises as much as +10%, EasyJet +6.2%, British Airways owner IAG +4.4% Airbus shares rise as much as 4% after BofA analysts led by Benjamin Heelan added the aircraft manufacturer to the bank’s ‘3Q Best Ideas list,’ according to a note. SBB shares advance as much as 21.5% Friday, its largest intra-day gain since April 2017, after the company was included in Nasdaq Stockholm’s OMXS30 index. Sodexo shares gain as much as 5.6%, the most since April 8, after the French caterer reported 3Q revenue that beat the average analyst estimate. Morgan Stanley says Friday’s update is a “relief.” Maersk shares rise as much as 3.0% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral and placed it and Kuehne Nagel on their “positive Catalyst Watch” for Q2, citing increased confidence in the longevity of current earnings. European semiconductor stocks tumble after US memory- chip maker Micron 4Q outlook fell short of analyst expectations and said the industry demand environment has weakened. Chipmaker Infineon falls as much as 5.0%, ASML drops 4.9% La Francaise des Jeux shares decline as much as 9.0% after Citi cuts the stock to sell from buy, citing concession fee to be paid that is worse than Street expectations. Craneware declines as much as 12% after an offering of ~1.2m shares by holder Abry Partners VII priced at 1,600p, a 13% discount to last close. OVH Groupe shares drop as much as 6.5% after the analysts adjusted their estimates amid a softening demand outlook. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined for a third day, as traders assessed recession risks in the global economy after weak US consumer spending and soft factories data from the region. Investors are also keeping an eye on developments from the Chinese President’s Hong Kong visit.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.1%, adding to nearly 2% weekly loss, weighed down by tech and consumer discretionary stocks. Chipmakers including TSMC and Samsung extended their declines, contributing the most to the measure’s loss along with Australian miner BHP and Indian energy giant Reliance.  Taiwan’s benchmark was again the region’s notable underperformer as it is on course for a bear market following more than a 20% fall from its January high, dragged down by technology stocks. Equity benchmarks in Japan and South Korea slipped more than 1%. Stocks in mainland China retreated after meandering between gains and losses while Hong Kong was closed for a holiday as its new chief was sworn in by Chinese President Xi Jinping.  A further slide in June purchasing managers’ indexes in Asian countries except China and the drop in US consumer spending for the first time this year in May highlighted the fragile foundation of the world economy. Those data dimmed global economic outlook and further dented investor sentiment already weakened by ongoing worries about global central banks’ aggressive rate hikes to fight inflation.  “Overall, weakened US consumer spending will lead to a drop in global demand. It will affect export-dominated markets like South Korea in particular,” said Cui Xuehua, a China equity analyst at Meritz Securities in Seoul. “Traders are also looking to see if there will be policies benefiting Hong Kong, such as a re-opening of borders and increased trade” as Xi visits Hong Kong. Asian stocks plunged about 18% during the first half of this year, capping the first six months with the worst annual drop since 2008. Asian equities have struggled to rebound from a low in May as global recession worries and aggressive tightening by central banks triggered heavy outflows of funds from emerging markets. Chinese stocks have remained a bright spot last month as Beijing winds down its stringent virus restrictions and investors expected regulatory and monetary support for key sectors.   In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.6% for the week, as the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars slumped to their lowest levels in two years amid ongoing recession worries that boosted haven assets. After a late sell-off Friday, shares swung to a loss of 0.4% to close at 6,539.90, driven by declines in energy and material stocks, with a group of mining shares hitting the lowest since Nov. 22 following commodity price drops.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1.1% to 10,753.16 In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by around 0.3% as the greenback traded stronger against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. Australian and New Zealand dollars plunged to new two-year lows. The euro fluctuated around $1.0450 after the latest data showed that euro-area consumer prices rose 8.6% from a year earlier in June -- up from 8.1% in May. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg saw a gain of 8.5%. The yen rose and the nation’s bonds were steady to higher. One-week options in dollar-yen are once again overpriced as short-term risks make a strong case for long-gamma exposure. Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan report of confidence among Japan’s large manufacturers fell to 9 in June from 14 three months ago, the biggest drop since the peak of the pandemic. In rates, the German curve bear-steepened, with long-end yields ~7bps cheaper after a manufacturing PMIs show notable softness in new orders. Cash Treasuries extended Thursday’s bull steepening move, with front-end and belly dropping over 10bp from prior day’s close while richer by ~4bps at the short end. Ten-year yields fell further to below 3%, breaching the 50-day moving average, while eurodollar strip bull flattens as recession risk and Fed rate cuts continue to be priced in for next year.  10-year yields dropped to as low as 2.937%, the lowest since June 6, before edging back above 2.95% in early US session, outperforming bunds by 5.5bps. The belly and front-end outperformance causing a steepening of 5s30s curve by 6bp on the day and 2s10s by 3bps; 5s30s peaks through 20bp and onto widest levels in a month. Two-year yield fell 10bp to 2.85%. The Eurodollar strip continues to bull flatten as rate hike premium is eased out of next year; Dec22/Dec23 spread drops to -63.5bp and fresh cycle lows.  German government benchmark yields rose after data showed euro-area inflation hit a fresh record, surpassing expectations. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index wavered between losses and gains. Gilts are relatively quiet. Most peripheral spreads are modestly wider to core. In commodities, crude futures advance. WTI drifts 1.9% higher to trade near $107.73. Brent rises 2% near $111.23. Most base metals are in the red. LME copper briefly drops below $8,000 a ton for the first time since February 2021. Spot gold falls roughly $12 to trade near $1,795/oz.  Looking to the day ahead, data releases include the flash Euro Area CPI reading for June, as well as June’s global manufacturing PMIs and the ISM manufacturing reading from the US, along with the UK’s mortgage approvals for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Panetta and De Cos. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 3,774.25 MXAP down 1.0% to 156.37 MXAPJ down 1.0% to 519.11 Nikkei down 1.7% to 25,935.62 Topix down 1.4% to 1,845.04 Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 21,859.79 Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,387.64 Sensex down 0.6% to 52,688.97 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 6,539.91 Kospi down 1.2% to 2,305.42 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 407.16 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.39% Euro down 0.2% to $1.0459 Brent Futures up 0.8% to $109.95/bbl Gold spot down 0.7% to $1,794.17 US Dollar Index up 0.26% to 104.95 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The Bank of Japan’s decision to pass up an opportunity to ramp up its policy defenses points to a fear of triggering a further weakening of the embattled yen Japan’s state pension fund, the world’s largest, posted its first quarterly loss in two years as declines in global stock and bond markets during the three months through March weighed down the value of its assets After years of subdued price swings caused by central bank intervention, a key gauge of volatility in the 1 quadrillion yen ($7.4 trillion) government bond market has surged in recent weeks to the highest level since 2008. That’s boosting demand for JGB traders, with Nomura Holdings Inc. noting signs of intensifying competition for talent Copper sank below $8,000 a ton, hitting its lowest since early 2021, as deepening fears about a global economic slowdown drive a rout in industrial metals markets Chinese President Xi Jinping urged Hong Kong to shore up its economy after an era of “chaos,” in a landmark visit that offered few clear answers for how to balance Beijing’s demands for limiting perceived foreign threats with its desire to remain an international financial hub A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pacific stocks began the new trading month mostly in the red as the region digested a slew of data releases and amid headwinds from the US where Consumer Spending data disappointed and Atlanta Fed's GDPnow model alluded to a recession.     ASX 200 was just about kept afloat by resilience in nearly all industries aside from the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 26,000 level after the latest Tankan survey mostly disappointed. Shanghai Comp. traded indecisively despite the stronger than expected Caixin Manufacturing PMI data which rose to its highest since May 2021 as sentiment in the mainland was constrained by falling commodity prices, as well as the absence of Hong Kong participants and Stock Connect flows. Top Asian News Chinese President Xi said "one country, two systems" has been successful for Hong Kong over the past 25 years and said Hong Kong is a window and a bridge connecting the mainland to the world, while he added that Hong Kong has to defend against interference and focus on development, according to Bloomberg and Reuters. Hong Kong's new Chief Executive Lee was sworn in and stated the National Security Law brought stability after chaos, while he added the government will strive to control and manage COVID-19 through scientific methods, according to Reuters. UK PM Johnson said China has been failing to comply with its commitments on Hong Kong and the UK intends to do all it can to hold China to account, according to Reuters. PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 50bln net daily drain, according to Reuters. World’s Top Pension GPIF Posts Quarterly Loss on Stock Rout Three Arrows Crypto Fund CEO Wants to Sell Singapore Mansion Kishida Says LNG Supply From Sakhalin Won’t Immediately Stop Japan Mulls LNG From Spot Market to Replace Russian Supply: METI European bourses are back in the red after briefly recovering from opening losses. Sectors are mixed with no clear theme - Tech is the laggard and Utilities the outperformer. Chip stocks are after sources said TSMC has seen its major clients adjust downward their chip orders for the rest of 2022, whilst Micron's guidance was underwhelming. Stateside, US equity futures remain in negative territory but off worst levels as the contracts coat-tail on some of Europe’s upside. Top European News French government spokesperson said a possible cabinet reshuffle could take place Monday or Tuesday, according to Reuters. Euro-Zone Inflation Hits Record in Boost for Big-Hike Calls Food Inflation Gets a Break as Wheat, Corn and Soy Oil Tumble UK House Sales Slow as ‘Intense’ Market Starts to Cool FX Dollar regroups after late month end fade amidst broad gains ahead of US manufacturing ISM and construction spending - DXY retests 105.000+ levels from 104.640 low yesterday. Yen bucks trend, but off recovery peaks as yields firm up and risk aversion wanes - Usd/Jpy around 135.500 vs 134.74 overnight base. Aussie underperforms and hits fresh 2022 trough sub-6800 and Kiwi under 0.6200 after decline in ANZ consumer sentiment. Pound undermined by downward revision to UK manufacturing PMI with Cable below 1.2100 and prone to test of Fib support if 1.2050 breached. Euro back on 1.0400 handle and propped by better than forecast Eurozone manufacturing PMIs and stronger than expected inflation metrics. Rand extends declines alongside Gold as SA power and pay issues rumble on - Usd/Zar above 16.3400, spot bullion below Usd 1800/oz. Fixed Income Debt futures rack up more safe haven gains before recovery in risk sentiment and sharp reversal. Bunds recoil from 149.46 to 148.24, Gilts retreat to 113.79 from 114.52 and 10 year T-note pulls back from 118-29+ to 118-06 as benchmark yield retests 3% briefly. Bonds subsequently bounce off lows awaiting US manufacturing ISM and construction spending ahead of long Independence Day holiday weekend. Commodities WTI and Brent front-month futures retrace some of yesterday’s losses with upside also spurred the recovery across the stock markets Libya's NOC announced a force majeure over Es Sider, Ras Lanuf Ports and the El Feel oilfield, while it noted that oil production decreased as daily exports ranged between 365-408k BPD which is a decline of 865k BPD, according to Reuters. Spot gold is under pressure after the yellow metal breached USD 1,800/oz to the downside – with the next level to the downside at USD 1,786/oz, the May 16th low. Base metals are softer across the board as recession woes grapple with the risk-correlated market. LME 3M copper briefly fell beneath the USD 8,000/t for the first time since January. India raised the basic import tax on gold to 12.5% from 7.5%, according to BQ Prime citing a Gazette notification. US Event Calendar 09:45: June S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 52.4, prior 52.4 10:00: May Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2% 10:00: June ISM Manufacturing, est. 54.5, prior 56.1 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap If you want the good news this morning it's that H1 is now finally over. If you want the bad news it's that there's not much good news around as we start H2 and US equity futures are already down around a percent in the first few hours of the new half year. Having said that it's eminently possible that whatever age you are reading this you might ALL have now witnessed the worst first half of a year in your career either looking back or forward. So if you've survived that it might not all be bad news. Younger readers can come back to me after the awful H1 2055 and tell me I'm wrong. Henry will put out some more stats in our usual month-end performance review shortly, which reads like a bit of a horror story, but for what it’s worth the S&P 500 has now seen its worst H1 total return performance in 60 years, and also in total return terms it’s fallen for two consecutive quarters for the first time since the GFC. Meanwhile 10yr Treasuries look set (with a final calculation imminent) to have recorded their worst H1 since 1788, just before George Washington became President. As I mentioned in a previous chart of the day, bad H1’s for equities have tended to be followed by much better H2’s. But with increasing warnings that a recession is round the corner, it isn’t so obvious where things are headed this time round. Indeed, equities saw another significant selloff yesterday as those fears were magnified yet again by another weaker than expected round of data which genuinely puts the US at risk of a technical recession in H1 already. That included the US weekly initial jobless claims for the week through June 25, which although coming in inline at 231k (vs. 230k expected), did send the smoother 4-week moving average up to its highest level so far this year. Our preferred measure, namely containing claims, edged up but is not yet signalling a recession though. Personal spending also came in at just +0.2% in May (vs. +0.4% expected), and the prior month was revised down three-tenths as well, whilst real personal spending (-0.4%) saw its first monthly decline of the year as well. That translated to a 0.3% MoM Core PCE reading, below expectations of 0.4%, while the YoY reading was 6.3%. The prospect of the Fed being forced into hikes to fight stubborn inflation while growth is rolling over appears to be something the markets will have to wrestle with sooner rather than later. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed’s 2Q GDP nowcast estimate was revised down from 0.3% to -1.0% which if proved correct will signal a technical recession as a minimum. Today's ISM will be a big sentiment driver on this front. Against the weak growth backdrop, the S&P 500 (-0.88%) continued its run of having declined every day this week, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (-1.50%) saw even sharper losses. Utilities (+1.10%) were the clear outperformer, as investors rotate into defensive sectors. In turn, the NASDAQ underperformed, closing down -1.33%, also finishing in the red every day this week to date. The S&P 500 lost -20.58% in the first half of the year, its worst first half performance since 1970. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ has fared even worse, declining -22.44% this quarter alone and -29.51% in the first half of the year, its worst first half in the data available in Bloomberg. But in some ways the fear was more evident among sovereign bonds, which rallied significantly as investors continued to seek out safe havens and grew more doubtful about whether central banks would be able to persist in taking policy into aggressive territory. Indeed, the rate priced by Fed funds futures for the December 2022 meeting came down -6.5bps to 3.39%, and the rate priced by December 2023 came down an even larger -13.6bps to 2.96%. Those shifting expectations meant that yields on 10yr Treasuries fell back beneath 3% in the session for the first time in nearly 3 weeks, ultimately settling -7.6bps lower on the day at 3.01%. The decline in 10yr yields was split between breakevens and real yields, as both had a volatile session to end the quarter. Breakevens fell -4.7bps to 2.35%, their lowest levels since September. Other recessionary indicators were flashing warning signs of their own, with the near-term Fed spread down another -14.9bps to 142bps, meanwhile the 2s10s curve managed to eek out a marginal steepening, but is still flirting with inversion, closing at just 5.1bps. This morning, 10yr UST yields (-5.92 bps) are lower again, moving back below 3% to 2.95% with the 2s10 curve flattening -1bps at 4.13% as we type. We saw much the same pattern in Europe yesterday, albeit with even larger moves lower in yields that sent those on 10yr bunds (-18.3bps), OATs (-15.2bps) and BTPs (-13.3bps) sharply lower. As in the US, European sovereign yield declines were driven by falling inflation compensation, with the 10yr German breakeven coming down by -12.3bps to 2.03%, which is its lowest closing level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. That was echoed in a declining oil price with Brent crude down -1.60% yesterday at $109.52/bbl, meaning that oil prices saw a monthly decline in June for the first time since November 2021, back when the Omicron variant first emerged and travel restrictions started going back up again. Speaking of energy prices, there were a few interesting headlines on that front yesterday, including a comment from President Biden that he is seeking more production from the Gulf states. Biden is set to travel to the Middle East from July 13-16, so that’s an important event on the geopolitical calendar, and ahead of that, we also saw the OPEC+ group move to ratify yesterday a further supply hike of +648k barrels per day in August. In Europe however there was more bad news on the energy side, with natural gas futures up a further +3.53% to a fresh three-month high of €144.51 per megawatt-hour. My colleague George Saravelos put out a fascinating blog yesterday (link here) that highlighted how worried he’s becoming on the gas supply situation, with year-ahead natural gas prices making fresh record highs and electricity prices skyrocketing. A key event as part of that will be the shutdown of the Nordstream pipeline from July 11-21 for regular annual maintenance, and press reports are suggesting that authorities are attempting to find a solution on sanctions restrictions to move gas turbine components back to Russia. So while we all spend most of our time thinking about the Fed and recessions, what happens to Russian gas over H2 is potentially an even bigger story. Mark July 22nd in your dairies to see whether the gas supply starts getting back to normal or not. Asian equity markets are reversing early morning gains and are mostly down again. The Kospi (-1.04%) is the largest underperformer across the region followed by the Nikkei (-0.88%). Over in mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (-0.30%) and CSI (-0.20%) are down but are trimming losses, as the nation’s private factory activity rose at the fastest pace in 13 months in June (more on this below). Markets in Hong Kong are closed for a holiday marking the 25th anniversary of Chinese rule. Bucking the regional trend is Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 which is trading +0.26% higher at the time of writing. Outside of Asia, stock futures are once again sliding with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.84%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.86%) indicating a disappointing start in the US later today. Early morning data showed that China’s Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI advanced to 51.7 in June, returning to expansion territory for the first time in four months against a previous reading of 48.1 and well above analyst expectations for an uptick to 50.1. The recovery as suggested in the survey was propelled by a strong rebound in output, as the easing Covid restrictions sent factories racing to meet recovering demand. Over in Japan, Tokyo’s June CPI rose +2.3% y/y (v/s +2.5% expected) and against a +2.4% increase in the prior month. Core CPI advanced +2.1% in June from a year earlier, notching the fastest pace of increase in seven years in a sign of broadening inflationary pressure in the world’s third largest economy. Separately, the unemployment rate in Japan surprisingly edged up to +2.6% in May from +2.5% in April. Meanwhile, sentiment at Japan’s large manufacturers deteriorated in the April-to-June period as the headline index worsened to a level of +9, a decline from the previous quarter’s reading of 14. Looking at yesterday’s other data, French CPI came in at +6.5% as expected on the EU-harmonised measure in June, although German unemployment unexpectedly rose +133k in June (vs -5k expected) as Ukrainian refugees are now being included in those looking for work. Looking back to May however, the Euro Area unemployment rate hit its lowest level since the formation of the single currency at 6.6% (vs. 6.8% expected). Finally in the US, the MNI Chicago PMI came in at 56.0 (vs. 58.0 expected). To the day ahead now, and data releases include the flash Euro Area CPI reading for June, as well as June’s global manufacturing PMIs and the ISM manufacturing reading from the US, along with the UK’s mortgage approvals for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Panetta and De Cos. Tyler Durden Fri, 07/01/2022 - 07:57.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJul 1st, 2022

Stocks, Cryptos Tumble To Close Out Catastrophic First-Half

Stocks, Cryptos Tumble To Close Out Catastrophic First-Half It was supposed to be a 7% ramp into month-end on billions in pension fund residual buying. Instead, it ended up being more or less the opposite, with crypto-led liquidations dragging futures and global markets lower, and extending Wednesday losses after central bankers issued warnings on inflation and fueled concern that aggressive policy will end with a hard-landing recession, which increasingly more now see as being 2022 business, an outcome that now appears assured especially after yesterday's disastrous guidance cut from RH, the second in three weeks! Recession fears and inflation woes may be prolonged by today's PCE deflator report. The consumer price gauge favored by the Fed may have picked up to 6.4% last month from 6.3%. Personal income growth probably edged up but Bloomberg Economics highlights an anticipated decline in real personal spending as a major worry. Meanwhile, China’s economy showed further signs of improvement in June with a strong pickup in services and construction, even if the latest Chinese PMI print came slightly below expectations. Also overnight, Russia said it withdrew troops from Ukraine’s Snake Island in the Black Sea after Ukraine said its forces drove Russian troops from the area. In any case, with zero demand from pensions so far (even though the continued selling in stocks and buying in bonds will only make the imabalnce bigger), overnight Nasdaq 100 contracts dropped 1.8% while S&P 500 futures declined 1.3%, and cryptos crumbled, with bitcoin dragged back below $19000 and Ether on the verge of sliding below $1000. The tech-heavy gauge managed to end Wednesday’s trading slightly higher, while the S&P 500 fell for a third straight day. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 1.9%. Treasuries gained, the dollar was steady and gold declined and crude oil futures edged lower again. Which brings us to the last trading day of a quarter for the history books: the S&P 500 is set for its biggest 1H decline since 1970 and the Nasdaq 100 since 2002, the height of the bust. The Stoxx 600 is set for the worst 1H since 2008, the height of the GFC.  Traders have ramped up bets that the global economy will buckle under central bank tightening campaigns -- and that policy makers will eventually backpedal. The bond market shifted to price in a half-point rate cut in the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate at some point in 2023. On Wednesday, during the annual ECB annual forum, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his counterparts in Europe and the UK warned inflation is going to be longer lasting. A view that central banks need to act fast on rates because they misjudged inflation has roiled markets this year, with global stocks about to close out their worst quarter since the three months ended March 2020. “Markets are worried about growth as central bankers continue to emphasize that bringing down inflation is their overriding objective, and that it may take time to bring inflation down,” said Esty Dwek, chief investment officer at Flowbank SA. “We still haven’t seen total capitulation in markets, so further downside is possible.” Meanwhile, the cost of insuring European junk bonds against default crossed 600 basis points for the first time in two years on Thursday. And speaking of Europe, stocks are also down over 2% in early trading, with all sectors in the red. DAX and CAC underperform at the margin with autos, consumer discretionary and banking sectors the weakest within the Stoxx 600.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Uniper shares slump as much as 23% after the German utility withdrew its outlook and said it was discussing a possible bailout from the German government following Russia’s move to curb natural gas deliveries. SAP sinks as much as 6.5% after Exane BNP Paribas downgraded stock to neutral from outperform, saying it sees risks on demand side in the near term as software spending decisions come under increased scrutiny. Sanofi shares decline as much as 4.5% after the French drugmaker said the FDA placed late-stage clinical trials of tolebrutinib on partial hold in US because of concerns about liver injuries. European semiconductor stocks fell, following peers in the US and Asia lower amid growing concerns that the industry might face a downturn soon as chip stockpiles build. ASML drops as much as 3.4%, Infineon -4.1%, STMicro -3.1% Norsk Hydro shares slide as much as 6% amid metals decline and as DNB cuts the stock to sell from hold, citing concerns about rising aluminum supply. Stainless steel stocks in Europe fall, with Morgan Stanley saying the settlement on the latest ferrochrome benchmark missed its expectations. Outokumpu shares down as much as 6.6%, Aperam -7.2%, Acerinox -4% Saab shares jump as much as 8.4%, after getting an order worth SEK7.3b from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration for GlobalEye Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft. Orsted shares rise as much as 2.5%, before paring some of the gains. HSBC raises to buy from hold, saying any further downside for the wind farm operator looks limited. Bunzl shares rise as much as 2.6% after the specialist distribution company said it now expects very good revenue growth in 2022. Grifols shares rise as much as 7.8% after slumping on Wednesday, as the company says that the board isn’t analyzing any capital increase “for the time being.” Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell for a second day as tech-heavy indexes in Taiwan and South Korea continued to get pummeled amid concerns over the potential for aggressive monetary tightening in the US to rein in inflation.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.2%, dragged down by technology shares including TSMC, Alibaba and Tencent. Taiwan slid more than 2%, while gauges in Japan, South Korea, Australia dropped more than 1%.  Stocks in mainland China rose more than 1% after the economy showed further signs of improvement in June with a strong pickup in services and construction as Covid outbreaks and restrictions were gradually eased. Traders are also watching Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to Hong Kong, his first time outside of the mainland since 2020.  Asian stocks are struggling to recover from a May low as the threat of higher US rates outweighs China’s emergence from strict Covid lockdowns and its pledge of stimulus measures. While mainland Chinese stocks led gains globally this month, the rest of the markets in the region -- especially those heavy with technology stocks and exporters -- saw hefty outflows of foreign funds.  “Investors continue to assess recession and also inflation risks,” Marcella Chow, JPMorgan Asset Management’s global market strategist, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “This tightening path has actually increased the chance of a slower economic growth going forward and probably has brought forward the recession risks.” Asian stocks are set to post a more than 12% loss this quarter, the worst since the one ended March 2020 during the pandemic-induced global market rout. Japanese stocks declined after the release of China’s data on manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs that showed slower than expected improvements.  The Topix Index fell 1.2% to 1,870.82 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei declined 1.5% to 26,393.04. Sony Group contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, falling 3.4%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 531 rose and 1,574 fell, while 65 were unchanged. “Although China is recovering from a lockdown, business sentiment in the manufacturing industry is deteriorating around the world,” said Tomo Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management China’s Economy Shows Signs of Improvement as Covid Eases. Indian stock indexes posted their biggest quarterly loss since March 2020 as the global equity market stays rattled by high inflation and a weakening outlook for economic growth.  The S&P BSE Sensex ended little changed at 53,018.94 in Mumbai on Thursday, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index dropped 0.1%. The gauges shed more than 9% each in the June quarter, their biggest drop since the outbreak of pandemic shook the global markets in March 2020. The main indexes have fallen for all but one month this year as surging cost pressures forced India’s central bank to raise rates twice and tighten liquidity conditions. The selloff is also partly driven by record foreign outflows of more than $28b this year.  Despite the turmoil in global markets, Indian stocks have underperformed most Asian peers, partly helped by inflows from local institutions, which made net purchases of more than $30b of local stocks. “Investors worry that the latest show of central bank determination to tame inflation will slow economies rapidly,” HDFC Securities analyst Deepak Jasani wrote in a note.  Fourteen of the 19 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. fell Thursday, with metal stocks leading the plunge. The expiry of monthly derivative contracts also weighed on markets. For the June quarter, metal stocks were the worst performers, dropping 31% while information technology gauge fell 22%. Automakers led the three advancing sectors with 11.3% gain. Australian stocks also tumbled, with the S&P/ASX 200 index falling 2% to close at 6,568.10, weighed down by losses in mining, utilities and energy stocks.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.8% to 10,868.70 In rates, treasuries advanced, led by the belly of the curve. German bonds surged, led by the short-end and outperforming Treasuries. US yields richer by as much as 5.4bp across front-end and belly of the curve which outperforms, steepening 2s10s, 5s30s by 2bp and 2.8bp; wider bull-steepening move in progress for German curve with yields richer by up to 13.5bp across front-end with 2s10s wider by 3.5bp on the day. US 10-year yields around 3.055%, richer by 3.5bp. Money markets aggressively trimmed ECB tightening bets on relief that French June inflation didn’t come in above the median estimate. Bonds also benefitted from haven buying as stocks slide. Month-end extension flows may continue to support long-end of the Treasuries curve. bunds outperform by 7bp in the sector. IG issuance slate empty so far; Celanese Corp. pushed back plans to issue in euros and dollars, most likely to next week, after deals struggled earlier this week. Focal points of US session include PCE deflator and MNI Chicago PMI.  In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady as the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers. The yen advanced and Antipodean currencies were steady against the greenback. French inflation quickened to the fastest since the euro was introduced. Steeper increases in energy and food costs drove consumer-price growth to 6.5% in June from 5.8% in May . Sweden’s krona swung to a loss. It briefly advanced earlier after the Riksbank raised its policy rate by 50bps, as expected, signaled faster rate hikes and a quicker trimming of the balance sheet. The pound rose, snapping three days of losses against the dollar. UK household incomes are on their longest downward trend on record, as the nation’s cost of living crisis saps the spending power of British households. Separate figures showed that the current-account deficit widened sharply to £51.7 billion ($63 billion) in the first quarter. The yen rose and the Japan’s bonds inched up. The BOJ kept the amount and frequencies of planned bond purchases unchanged in the July-September period. The Australian dollar reversed a loss after data showed China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index rose above 50 for the first time since February in a sign of improvement in the world’s second largest economy. Bitcoin is on track for its worst quarter in more than a decade, as more hawkish central banks and a string of high-profile crypto blowups hammer sentiment. The 58% drawdown in the biggest cryptocurrency is the largest since the third quarter of 2011, when Bitcoin was still in its infancy, data compiled by Bloomberg show. In commodities, WTI trades a narrow range, holding below $110. Brent trades either side of $116. Most base metals trade in the red; LME zinc falls 3.1%, underperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $3 to trade near $1,814/oz. Bitcoin slumps over 6% before finding support near $19,000. Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include German retail sales for May and unemployment for June, French CPI for June, the Euro Area unemployment rate for May, Canadian GDP for April, whilst the US has personal income and personal spending for May, the weekly initial jobless claims, and the MNI Chicago PMI for June. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 1.2% to 3,775.75 STOXX Europe 600 down 1.8% to 406.18 MXAP down 1.0% to 158.01 MXAPJ down 1.1% to 524.78 Nikkei down 1.5% to 26,393.04 Topix down 1.2% to 1,870.82 Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 21,859.79 Shanghai Composite up 1.1% to 3,398.62 Sensex up 0.2% to 53,136.59 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2.0% to 6,568.06 Kospi down 1.9% to 2,332.64 Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,814.91 US Dollar Index little changed at 105.04 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.42% Euro little changed at $1.0443 Brent Futures down 0.4% to $115.85/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The surge in the dollar has set Asian currencies on course for their worst quarter since the 1997 financial crisis and created a dilemma for central bankers French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the EU can deliver the global minimum corporate tax with or without the support of Hungary, circumventing Budapest’s veto earlier this month just as the bloc was on the brink of a agreement German unemployment unexpectedly rose, snapping 15 straight months of decline as refugees from the war in Ukraine were included in those searching for work The SNB bought foreign exchange worth 5.7 billion francs ($5.96 billion) in the first quarter of 2022 as the franc sharply appreciated against the euro and briefly touched parity in March The ECB plans to ask the region’s lenders to factor in the economic hit of a potential cut off of Russian gas when considering payouts to shareholders European stocks were poised for their biggest drop in any half-year period since 2008, as investors focused on the prospects for economic slowdown and stubbornly high inflation in the region New Zealand will enter a recession next year that could be deeper than expected, Bank of New Zealand economists said after a survey showed business sentiment continues to slump A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were varied at month-end amid a slew of data releases including mixed Chinese PMIs. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in energy, miners and the top-weighted financials sector. Nikkei 225 declined after disappointing Industrial Production data and with Tokyo raising its virus infection level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were somewhat mixed with Hong Kong indecisive and the mainland underpinned after the latest Chinese PMI data in which Manufacturing PMI printed below estimates but Non-Manufacturing PMI firmly surpassed forecasts and along with Composite PMI, all returned to expansion territory. Top Asian News NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said China's growing assertiveness has consequences for the security of allies, while he added China is not our adversary, but we must be clear-eyed about the serious challenges it presents. US blacklisted 5 Chinese firms for allegedly helping Russia in which Connec Electronic, King Pai Technology, Sinno Electronics, Winnine Electronic and World Jetta Logistics were added to the entity list which restricts access to US technology, according to WSJ. Japan's government cut its assessment of industrial production and noted that production is weakening, while it stated that Japan's motor vehicle production declined 8% M/M and that industrial production likely saw the largest impact of Shanghai's COVID-19 lockdown in May, according to Reuters. Tokyo metropolitan government will reportedly increase COVID infections level to the second-highest, according to FNN. It’s been a downbeat session for global equities thus far as sentiment deteriorates further. European bourses are lower across the board, with losses extending during early European hours. European sectors are all in the red but portray a clear defensive bias. Stateside, US equity futures have succumbed to the glum mood, with the NQ narrowly underperforming. Top European News Riksbank hiked its Rate by 50bps to 0.75% as expected, and said the rate will be raised further and it will be close to 2% at the start of 2023. Bank said the balance sheet its to shrink faster than previously flagged, and suggested that policy rate will increase faster if needed. Click here for details. Riksbank's Ingves said inflation over forecast probably not enough for Riksbank to hold extra policy meeting in summer. Ingves added that if the situation requires a 75bps hike, then Riksbank will carry out a 75bps hike. Orsted Gains as HSBC Upgrades With Shares Seen ‘Good Value’ Aston Martin Extends Losses as Carmaker Reportedly Seeking Funds Climate Litigants Look Beyond Big Oil for Their Day in Court Ukraine Latest: Putin Warns NATO on Moving Military to Nordics FX DXY extends on gains above 105.00, but could see more upside on safe haven demand and residual rebalancing flows over fixes - EUR/USD inches towards 1.0400 to the downside. Yen regroups as yields drop and risk sentiment deteriorates to compound corrective price action. Franc unwinds some of its recent outperformance and Loonie lose traction from oil ahead of Canadian GDP. Swedish Crown unable to take advantage of hawkish Riksbank hike in face of risk aversion - Eur/Sek stuck in a rut close to 10.7000. Pound finds some underlying bids into 1.2100 and Kiwi at 0.6200, while Aussie holds above 0.6850 with encouragement from China’s services PMI that also propped the Yuan. Fixed Income Bonds on bull run into month, quarter and half year end - Bunds top 148.00 at best, Gilts approach 113.50 and 10 year T-note just a tick away from 118-00. Debt in demand on safe haven grounds rather than duration as curves steepen on less hawkish/more dovish market pricing. Italian supply comfortably covered to keep BTP futures propped ahead of US PCE data and yet another speech from ECB President Lagarde. Commodities WTI and Brent front-month futures are resilient to the broader risk downturn, and firmer Dollar as OPEC+ member members gear up for what is expected to be a smooth meeting. Spot gold is uneventful but dipped under yesterday's low, with potential support at the 15th June low at USD 1,806.59/oz. Base metals are softer across the board amid the broader risk profile. Dalian and Singapore iron ore futures were on track for quarterly losses. Ship with 7,000 tonnes of grain leaves Ukraine port, according to pro-Russia officials cited by AFP. US Event Calendar 08:30: June Initial Jobless Claims, est. 229,000, prior 229,000 08:30: June Continuing Claims, est. 1.32m, prior 1.32m 08:30: May Personal Income, est. 0.5%, prior 0.4% 08:30: May Personal Spending, est. 0.4%, prior 0.9% 08:30: May Real Personal Spending, est. -0.3%, prior 0.7% 08:30: May PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.2% 08:30: May PCE Deflator YoY, est. 6.4%, prior 6.3% 08:30: May PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 4.8%, prior 4.9% 08:30: May PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3% 09:45: June MNI Chicago PMI, est. 58.0, prior 60.3 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap We’ve just released the results of our monthly EMR survey that we conducted at the start of the week. It makes for some interesting reading, and we’re now at the point where 90% of respondents are expecting a US recession by end-2023, which is up from just 35% in our December survey. That echoes our own economists’ view that we’re going to get a recession in H2 2023, and just shows how sentiment has shifted since the start of the year as central banks have begun hiking rates. When it comes to people’s views on where markets are headed next, most are expecting many of the themes from H1 to continue, with a 72% majority thinking that the S&P 500 is more likely to fall to 3,300 rather than rally to 4,500 from current levels, whilst 60% think that Treasury yields will hit 5% first rather than 1%. Click here to see the full results. When it comes to negative sentiment we’ll have to see what today brings us as we round out the first half of the year, but if everything remains unchanged today we’re currently set to end H1 with the S&P 500 off to its worst H1 since 1970 in total return terms. And there’s been little respite from bonds either, with US Treasuries now down by -9.79% since the start of the year, so it’s been bad news for traditional 60/40 type portfolios. Ultimately, a large reason for that has been investors’ fears that ongoing rate hikes to deal with inflation will end up leading to a recession, and yesterday saw a continuation of that theme, with Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde and BoE Governor Bailey all reiterating their intentions in a panel at the ECB’s Forum to return inflation back to target. In terms of that panel, there weren’t any major headlines on policy we weren’t already aware of, although there was a collective acknowledgement of the risk that inflation could become entrenched over time and the need to deal with that. Fed Chair Powell described the US economy as in “strong shape”, but one that ultimately requires much tighter financial conditions to bring inflation back to target. Year-end fed funds expectations remained steady in response, down just -0.7bps to 3.45%. However, further out the curve the simmering slower growth narrative continued to grip markets and sent 10yr Treasury yields -8.2bps lower to 3.09%, and the 2s10s another -1.1bps flatter to 4.7bps. In line with a tighter Fed policy path and slower growth, 10yr breakevens drove the move in nominal yields, falling -8.2bps to 2.39%, their lowest levels since January, having entirely erased the gains seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when it peaked above 3% at one point in April. Along with 2s10s flattening, the Fed’s preferred measure of the near-term risk of recession, the forward spread (the 18m3m – 3m), similarly flattened by -5.7bps, hitting its lowest level in nearly four months at 154bps. And thismorning there’s only been a partial reversal of these trends, with 10yr Treasury yields (+1.3bps) edging back up to 3.10% as we go to press. Over in equities, the S&P 500 bounced around but finished off of its intraday lows with just a -0.07% decline, again with the macro view likely skewed by quarter-end rebalancing of portfolios. The NASDAQ was similarly little changed on the day, falling a mere -0.03%. In terms of the ECB, President Lagarde said on that same panel that she didn’t think “we are going back to that environment of low inflation” that was present before the pandemic. But when it came to the actual data yesterday there was a pretty divergent picture. On the one hand, Spain’s CPI for June surprised significantly on the upside, with the annual inflation rising to +10.0% (vs. +8.7% expected) on the EU’s harmonised measure. But on the other, the report from Germany then surprised some way beneath expectations, coming in at +8.2% on the EU-harmonised measure (vs. +8.8% expected). So mixed messages ahead of the flash CPI print for the entire Euro Area tomorrow. As in the US, there was a significant rally in European sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds (-10.7bps), OATs (-10.7bps) and BTPs (-16.0bps) all moving lower on the day. Equities also lost significant ground amidst the risk-off tone, and the STOXX 600 shed -0.67% as it caught up with the US losses from the previous session. That risk-off tone was witnessed in credit as well, where iTraxx Crossover widened +21.5bps to a post-pandemic high. At the same time, there were further concerns in Europe on the energy side, with natural gas futures up by +8.06% to a three-month high of €139 per megawatt-hour, which follows a reduction in capacity yesterday at Norway’s Martin Linge field because of a compressor failure. Whilst monetary policy has been the main focus for markets lately, we did get some headlines on the fiscal side yesterday too, with a report from Bloomberg that Senate Democrats were working on an economic package that had smaller tax increases in order to reach a deal with moderate Democratic senator Joe Manchin. For reference, the Democrats only have a majority in the split 50-50 senate thanks to Vice President Harris’ tie-breaking vote, so they need every Democrat Senator on board in order to pass legislation. According to the report, the plan would be worth around $1 trillion, with half allocated to new spending, and the other half cutting the deficit by $500bn over the next decade. Overnight in Asia we’ve seen a mixed market performance overnight. Most indices are trading lower, including the Nikkei (-1.45%) and the Kospi (-0.81%), but Chinese equities have put in a stronger performance after an improvement in China’s PMIs in June, and the CSI 300 (+1.62%) and the Shanghai Comp (+1.31%) have both risen. That came as manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in four months, with the PMI up to 50.2 in June (vs. 50.5 expected) from 49.6 in May. At the same time, the non-manufacturing climbed to 54.7 points in June, up from 47.8 in May, which also marked the first time it’d been above the 50 mark since February. Nevertheless, that positivity among Chinese equities are proving the exception, with equity futures in the US and Europe pointing lower, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.28%) looking forward to a 4th consecutive daily decline as concerns about a recession persist. When it came to other data yesterday, the third estimate of US GDP for Q1 saw growth revised down to an annualised contraction of -1.6% (vs. -1.5% second estimate). Separately, the Euro Area’s M3 money supply grew by +5.6% year-on-year in May (vs. +5.8% expected), which is the slowest pace since February 2020. To the day ahead now, data releases include German retail sales for May and unemployment for June, French CPI for June, the Euro Area unemployment rate for May, Canadian GDP for April, whilst the US has personal income and personal spending for May, the weekly initial jobless claims, and the MNI Chicago PMI for June. Tyler Durden Thu, 06/30/2022 - 07:58.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 30th, 2022

Stocks Stage Feeble Attempt At Dead Cat Bounce After Losing $1.3 Trillion In One Day

Stocks Stage Feeble Attempt At Dead Cat Bounce After Losing $1.3 Trillion In One Day US index futures staged a feeble, fading attempt to bounce on Tuesday, following Monday's crash that wiped out $1.3 trillion in market cap and topped a furious 4-day selloff that was the worst since March 2020 and culminated in a bear market amid expectations - even from permabull Goldman - that the Fed's now accepted 75bps rate hike on Wednesday will hurl the economy into a recession. Futures on the S&P 500 rebounded more than 1% in early trading before fading the gain to just 0.24%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.5%. US stocks plunged on Monday to the lowest level since January 2021 and closed more than 20% below its January record high, triggering Joe Biden first official bear market. Global equities sold off after an unexpectedly strong reading Friday on US inflation sparked concern that the Fed will go too far in raising interest rates to tame soaring prices. Bond yields dipped after soaring to a peak last seen in 2011. The yield curve remained flat, however, underscoring worries about an economic downturn sparked by tighter monetary policy, with the 2s10s curve just 1bps away from inverting again.  Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, plunged with bitcoin puking more than 10% to below $21,000 before paring much of the slide as dip buyers emerged. UBS said most long-term owners are now in the red and warned of more losses if coin miners buckle under the pressure and start selling. The dollar was steady near a two-year high. In Japan, the central bank boosted bond-purchase operations to keep yields in check. The yen hovered near a 24-year low against the greenback. “We remain bearish on equity outlook,” said Marija Veitmane, a senior strategist at State Street Global Markets. “Inflation is still a huge problem and central banks need to be very aggressive to fight it. This is a very negative outlook for stocks, so we would be sellers of any rally.” Among notable premarket movers, shares of megacap tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla and Meta Platforms were slightly higher and poised to recoup some of the losses from Monday: Apple (AAPL US) +1.4%, Amazon (AMZN US) +1.7%, Alphabet (GOOGL US) +1.5%, Meta Platforms (META US) +1.9% and Nvidia (NVDA US) +1.8% in premarket trading. Oracle shares rose 13% in premarket trading after the software company reported higher-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Here are the most notable premarket movers: AMC Entertainment (AMC US) shares rise as much as 3.7% in US premarket trading, in line with a broader rebound in risk assets, and after the movie theater operator said that last weekend’s admission revenues beat that of the same weekend of 2019. Adobe (ADBE US) slides 4.2% in premarket trading as Citi cut its price target on the company to $425, the lowest on Wall Street, citing weaker consumer spending and potentially rising competition. US-listed Chinese stocks post broad-based gains in premarket trading, on track to rebound from a three-day drop, as sentiment toward tech stabilizes: Alibaba (BABA US) shares rise 3.8%, Baidu (BIDU US) +4%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) +4.2%, (JD US) +3.2% and Li Auto (LI US) +6.1% Braze (BRZE US) shares jump 8% in premarket trading after the company’s first-quarter revenue beat estimates, and full-year guidance also topped expectations. Arista (ANET US) shares decline 4.1% in US premarket trading as Morgan Stanley says in a note that the company, as well as Wiwynn and memory stocks such as SK Hynix and Micron (MU US) are among those most at risk in the semiconductor and networking equipment space when tech firms cut spending on data centers. Kaival Brands (KAVL US) shares surge as much as 57% in US premarket trading, after the vaping products distributor reached deal with Philip Morris to distribute electronic nicotine delivery systems products outside of the US. Outset Medical (OM US) shares fall 4.6% in premarket trading as their price target was cut to a Street-low at Cowen, after the medical technology firm halted shipments on its Tablo Hemodialysis System for home use. The company also suspended guidance for the year. US Silica (SLCA US) shares may be in focus after they were upgraded to outperform from inline at Evercore ISI following the conclusion of the industrial minerals firm’s review of its Industrial & Specialty Products (ISP) segment. With just two weeks left until the end of Q2, a dismal picture emerges: this quarter is set to deliver the biggest combined loss for global bonds and stocks on record, according to Bloomberg. The highest inflation in a generation, stoked by supply-chain and commodity-market disruptions amid China’s Covid struggles and the war in Ukraine, is roiling the outlook. According to Bloomberg,  the big question is whether the Fed and other major central banks will tip their economies into recession as they tighten financial conditions. We disagree: a recession is now assured; the real big question is how sparking a recession in the US will force Putin to pump more gas. European gains were shorter-lived: Euro Stoxx 50 reverses a 1.1% bounce to trade down 0.2%, extending its decline to a sixth day, on track for the longest losing streak since the start of the pandemic and the lowest closing level in 15 months. Retail, media and travel are the weakest Stoxx 600 sectors with broad-based sectoral gains fading as the session progresses. Bonds in most of Europe edged lower, but gilts bucked the trend after data showed spending power of UK households plunged as inflation eroded wage increases. Here are the biggest European movers: Fortum shares rose as much as 9.5%, while Uniper gained 6.1% as Finland is prepared to give Fortum time to sell its Russian power plants and follow other western energy companies out of Russia. Rates-sensitive banking stocks in Europe outperform Tuesday as Treasury yields drop following four consecutive days of increases that lifted the 10-year to the highest level since 2011. HSBC shares gain as much as 3.2%, Standard Chartered +3.2%, Nordea Bank +2.7%, ING +2.8% Wizz Air shares rise as much as 6.2% after Berenberg upgraded the airline to buy from hold, citing the long-term potential of its business, despite numerous recent challenges. Go-Ahead rises as much as 15% amid a potential bidding war. The company accepted a £648m takeover bid from an investor group backed by Australian rival Kinetic, while Kelsian is assessing whether to make offer. Saipem gains as much as 8.5% after five sessions of declines; the company and Trevi signed memorandum of understanding for foundation drilling solutions and services for offshore wind farm projects. Atos shares plunge as much as 27% after the company announced the departure of newly arrived CEO Rodolphe Belmer and a separation into two publicly listed companies. Akzo Nobel shares decline as much as 6.1% after the company reduced 2Q forecasts due to China lockdowns and slower start to EMEA DIY season. Air France-KLM shares fall as much as 13% after the company raised EU2.3b in a deeply discounted rights offering to help repay state aid received during the pandemic. Earlier in the session, Asian stock market indexes hit bleak milestones in quick succession on Tuesday as investor concerns worsened that aggressive interest rate increases in the US could erode corporate earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2% to its lowest level in a month after the world equities gauge entered a bear market overnight before paring losses. New Zealand’s stock index extended its decline to 20% from a peak reached last year, entering a bear market, while Singapore’s measure wiped out its gains for 2022. Traders are betting that the Fed will deliver a 75-basis-point rate increase in this week’s meeting -- the biggest since 1994 -- after US inflation hit a four-decade high in May. This is further muddying the economic outlook at a time supply chains are snarled, weighing on the valuation and profit estimates for the MSCI Asia index, which has lost 17% this year. “Bets are off for all asset classes as investors brace themselves for tough action from the Fed to counter higher-than-expected inflation,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners in Singapore. “The renewed lockdowns in China are also not going to be helpful.” Central banks from South Korea and Australia to India have been raising rates in response to accelerating inflation, with the latter two announcing 50-basis-point increases in their latest decisions. China’s persistent zero-Covid strategy is another factor disproportionately affecting companies in Asia. Singapore’s Straits Times Index is near a correction, down 9.7% from an April high, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index has dropped 12% over a similar period. Elsewhere, the MSCI Asean Index is inching closer to a 20% drop from a peak reached in January 2021, while South Korea’s Kospi remains mired in a bear market.  Still, investors have identified some potential areas of outperformance, as Asia’s stock measure has held up better than global peers as it continues to trade at a lower forward price-to-earnings ratio. And while China has walked back on loosening some Covid-19 restrictions in Beijing and Shanghai, traders see the country’s fiscal and monetary easing stance giving its beleaguered stocks a further boost.  “China might outperform global equities, as it did in May and early June,” if consumption resumes in the coming months after a relaxation in lockdowns, said Herald van der Linde, head of APAC equity strategy at HSBC Holdings Plc. Meanwhile, commodity-exporting Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, which are also benefiting from border reopenings, are expected to continue to shine. The Jakarta Composite Index rose on Tuesday, taking its advance to 7.1% this year. India was no exception to the global rout, and stock gauges fell to their lowest levels in 11-months as inflation and interest-rate concerns continued to fuel selloffs across global equity markets.  The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.3% to 52,693.57 in Mumbai after rising as much as 0.5% during the session. The NSE Nifty 50 Index dropped by an similar measure to its lowest since July 28. Both benchmarks have dropped more than 14% from October peaks. Foreign institutional investors have taken out $24.2 billion from local stocks this year through June 10, and the selloff is headed for its ninth consecutive month. However, the key indexes have still outperformed Asia Pacific and emerging-market peers this year, helped by net $26.4 billion of stock purchases by domestic investors, which include mutual funds and insurance companies. Consumer-price inflation in India has stayed above the central bank’s target in May while wholesale prices accelerated for a third-straight month as input costs continue to rise for manufacturers. “High inflationary environment, fresh curbs in China and rising crude oil prices are likely to keep the markets under pressure for a while,” Motilal Oswal analyst Siddhartha Khemka wrote in a note.  Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 1.3%. Among the 30 shares in the Sensex Index, 15 rose, 14 fell and one was unchanged. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as the greenback weakened against most of its Group-of-10 peers.  The euro rose from a one-month low against the dollar but still failed to retrace the recent plunge in a meaningful way. German June ZEW expectations came in at -28.0 versus estimate -26.8. Norway’s krone slumped to a fresh 4-week low against the euro after Norges Bank’s regional network report showed businesses were expecting growth to slow. Sweden’s krona got a temporary boost after inflation figures for May came in higher than the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. A Riksbank survey showed businesses, which are seeing sharp cost increases, are concerned that the coming wage bargaining rounds will lead to higher salary costs than in previous collective agreements. The Swiss franc led G-10 gains as it pared most of yesterday’s drop against the dollar. The pound edged up from a two-year low against the dollar. Sterling remained on the back foot after UK labour market data showed limited further tightening in the jobs market, suggesting that the BOE may raise interest rates by 25bps this week, rather than 50bps. Australian sovereign bonds plunged in catch-up to a two-day rout in Treasuries as the specter of a 75bps Fed hike on Wednesday loomed large. Aussie steadied following a bounce in US stock futures. USD/JPY consolidated. The Bank of Japan ramped up the defense of its policy framework after yields came under renewed upward pressure, unveiling a further set of unscheduled buying operations, including purchases of much longer maturities In rates, treasuries bull steepened with front-end yields richer by 8.5bp on the day into US morning session. S&P futures slightly higher, although remain near Monday session lows as investors continue to position ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision. Swaps market prices in just under 200bp of rate hikes over the next three meetings with 70bp priced into Wednesday’s decision. Three-month Libor fix jumps over 17bp. US yields richer by 8.5bp to 5bp across the curve with front-end led gains steepening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 2.1bp and 1.5bp; 10-year yields around 3.30% and outperforming bunds by 7bp on the day. IG dollar issuance slate; projections for the session remain murky amid markets turmoil and after a number of deals were put on ice Monday. Gilts put in a ~6bps parallel richening move across the curve. Bunds buck the trend, bear-steepening ahead of scheduled comments from ECB’s Schnabel on euro-area bond market fragmentation due later. In commodities, oil held above $120 a barrel as investors evaluated a tight supply outlook and the impact of China’s eventual return from virus curbs. WTI adds 0.7% to trade near $121.71, Brent holds above $123. Spot gold trades a narrow range, fading after hitting $1,830/oz. Base metals are mixed; LME tin falls 5.1% while LME zinc gains 0.3%. To the day ahead now. The ECB’s Schnabel speaks, while in data we get UK jobless claims, ILO unemployment rate, ZEW surveys for the Eurozone and Germany, US NFIB small business optimism and PPI, and Canadian manufacturing sales. Hold on to your hats. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.1% to 3,790.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 413.07 MXAP down 0.9% to 159.98 MXAPJ down 0.6% to 529.25 Nikkei down 1.3% to 26,629.86 Topix down 1.2% to 1,878.45 Hang Seng Index little changed at 21,067.99 Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,288.91 Sensex down 0.2% to 52,743.72 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 3.5% to 6,686.03 Kospi down 0.5% to 2,492.97 Brent Futures up 0.7% to $123.15/bbl Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,829.72 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.34% to 104.72 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.62% Euro up 0.6% to $1.0473 Brent Futures up 0.7% to $123.17/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The latest jumps in consumer prices and inflation expectations will probably spur Federal Reserve officials to consider the biggest interest-rate increase since 1994 when they meet this week, after Chair Jerome Powell previously signaled a smaller move was the likely outcome JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are withdrawing from handling trades of Russian debt after the Biden administration’s surprise announcement last week it’s banning US investors from scooping up such assets As the BOJ escalates attempts to keep a lid on bond yields, BlueBay is betting the central bank will be forced to abandon a policy that’s increasingly out of sync with global peers. The BOJ’s so- called yield curve control is “untenable,” according to Mark Dowding, BlueBay’s London-based chief investment officer Investor fears of stagflation are at the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, while global growth optimism has sunk to a record low, according to Bank of America Corp.’s monthly fund manager survey A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pacific stocks were pressured following the global stock and bond slump as the aftershock from recent hot US inflation reverberated across risk assets and spurred further expectations for a 75bps Fed rate hike this week. ASX 200 was the worst performer as the losses caught up to the index on return from the extended weekend and with the declines led by underperformance in tech and metals. Nikkei 225 extended its declines despite the BoJ’s efforts to cap yields and with the recent rapid currency moves adding to the uncertainty. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were negative as lockdown concerns lingered with China’s Vice Premier Sun suggesting it is necessary to strengthen COVID-19 prevention and control of key places, while Shanghai's Minhang district plans to conduct mass testing on Saturday. Top Asian News Shanghai's Minhang district is planning mass COVID-19 testing on Saturday, according to Bloomberg. BoJ announced additional bond purchases for Wednesday in which it will increase purchases of JGBs across several maturities, while it will continue to conduct additional buying as needed, according to Reuters. European bourses began on the front-foot but quickly slipped into negative territory, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%; since the post-open dip, price action has steadily deteriorated further. However, while US futures are directionally in-fitting they remain in positive territory, ES +0.3%; albeit, well of highs and the ES resides around 3760 currently awaiting Fed clarity amid increasing speculation for 75bp. Oracle Corp (ORCL) Q4 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.54 (exp. 1.37), Revenue 11.8bln (exp. 11.66bln). Cloud License And On-Premise License: 2.54bln (exp. 2.19bln). Cloud Services And Licenses Support: 7.6bln (exp. 7.77bln). Total Hardware Revenues: 856mln (exp. 857.71mln). Total Services Revenues: 833mln (exp. 847.89mln). Added USD 15.8bln after Cerner acquisition and it expects cloud business to grow by over 30% in FY23; Co. expects Q1 rev. including Cerner to grow 17%-19%. (PR Newswire) +12% in the pre-market. German cartel office has commenced proceedings against Apple (AAPL) re. tracking regulations for 3rd party apps, via Reuters. Top European News The EU is set to launch three separate lawsuits against the British government after it published its plans to override the protocol, according to the Telegraph. One option would reportedly see the EU end financial equivalence for the City of London. US urged the UK and EU to return to talks to resolve differences over the Northern Ireland Protocol and said it remains a priority to protect gains of the Good Friday Agreement. White House said proposed changes to N. Ireland Protocol won't be an impediment to potential US-UK trade deal or trade dialogue talks in Boston, according to Reuters. UK PM Johnson is not looking to lower household taxes until inflation is brought under control, as such action is unlikely before next year, according to the Telegraph. FX Dollar consolidates after Monday’s melt up to new multi year peaks as clock ticks down to FOMC and US PPI data; DXY hovers around 105.00 and just shy of new 105.290 YTD high. Franc outperforms following suspension of trade in Russia against Rouble and Greenback; Usd/Chf probes 0.9000 to downside after pulling up only pips short of parity yesterday. Euro rebounds amidst more hawkish commentary from ECB’s Knot and irrespective of German ZEW survey misses; EUR/USD back above 1.0400 and decent option expiries between 1.0420-15. Aussie undermined by waning risk appetite and ongoing covid outbreaks in China, but underpinned by RBA Governor Lowe underlining determination to get inflation back to target, AUD/USD towards lower end of 0.6970-18 range. Pound fades after brief upturn in bigger than expected rise in UK employment as other labour market metrics fall short of expectations and EU rift over NI protocol persists; Cable on the cusp of 1.2100 after fleeting breach of round above, EUR/GBP crosses 0.8600 to set fresh 2 month apex. Fixed Income Recovery in EZ debt derailed by supply and hawkish remarks from ECB's Knot as Bunds retreat to 145.00 within a 145.58-144.51 range Gilts and 10 year T-note hold up better between 112.97-29 and 116-03/115-01+ parameters in consolidation after Monday's rout and ahead of US PPI data ** BTP/Bund** spread blows out beyond 250 bp in advance of ECB's Schnabel on fragmentation in bond markets Commodities WTI and Brent are firmer by circa. USD 1.0/bbl at present and reside towards the mid-point of a USD ~2.00/bbl range with specific newsflow thin and broader developments on familiar themes. Themes which include China COVID and travel demand, for instance; but, factors which are overshadowed by broader anticipation going into Wednesday's FOMC. US and Saudi Arabia will announce on Tuesday that US President Biden will visit Saudi Arabia on July 15th and 16th, according to NBC's Pegram citing sources. China's state planner is to increase retail prices of gasoline and diesel by CNY 390/tonne and CNY 375/tonne respectively as of June 15th, via NDRC. Spot gold is essentially unchanged on the session around USD 1820/oz after falling below the 10-, 21- & 200-DMAs yesterday; Copper softer amid broader risk. US Event Calendar 08:30: May PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 0.5%; YoY, est. 10.9%, prior 11.0% 08:30: May PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.4%; YoY, est. 8.6%, prior 8.8% 08:30: May PPI Final Demand DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Where do we start this morning after as action packed a 24 hours as I can remember. The global equity and bond sell-off would have been bad anyway but the late US session headlines from a WSJ article (written by a journalist close to the Fed) that suggested the FOMC may need to surprise with a +75bp hike tomorrow was the last straw. Before we delve into the article and more detail on markets let’s take a one para overview of all the main market highlights. To start with, 2yr USTs capped their largest two-day move (+54.3bps, +29.1bps yesterday), since the week following Lehman’s collapse, while 10yr Treasuries have risen +31.8bps over the last two days (+20.4bps yesterday), the largest such move since December 2010, bringing the 10yr to 3.36%, the highest since 2011. Meanwhile, the 2s10s yield curve swung around violently before closing in inverted territory (-0.3bps) again for the first time since the first days of April and for only the 15th day out of the 3907 business days since May 2007. The historic moves didn’t end with the Treasury market, as Italian 10yr BTP yields (+26.2bps) crossed 4.0% for the first time since 2014, the crossover index widened +32.3bps to 534bps, its widest level since 2012 outside of peak initial Covid widening, Bitcoin fell -15.13% to its lowest since late 2020 and is down another -5.23% this morning, the S&P 500 (-3.88%) finally entered bear market territory (-21.8% from its YTD peaks), while the dollar index surged to its highest level since 2002. So quite a ride although as we'll see below risk is doing a bit better this morning with yields relatively flat. Going through things in more detail, the Treasury market has been at the epicentre of this sell-off after the shocking CPI from last Friday. Yields were drifting higher all day as some on the Street officially updated their call for +75bp on Wednesday and openly considered whether the Fed will need a +100bp hike. The WSJ report then later threw gasoline on the already raging fire, noting the Fed was indeed “considering surprising markets with a larger-than expected” +75bp hike as early as this week given Friday’s alarming CPI and inflation expectations data. All-in, Fed funds futures moved to price in a 94% chance of a +75bp hike on Wednesday. So a +75bp hike on Wednesday won’t come as a surprise anymore. At the end of the day, 2yr yields gained +29.1bps yesterday and +25.2bps Friday, bringing the rate to 3.35%. The 2s10s yield curve inverted, closing the day at -0.3bps, as 10yr yields climbed +11.4bps Friday and +20.4bps yesterday, bringing rates to 3.36%, their highest level since April 2011. As we go to press this morning, 2yr yields are up another 2bps with 10yr yields fractionally higher, thus inverting the curve a little more. US PPI today will be closely watched for the next inflation impulse. The policy rate at end 2022 implied by fed funds futures closed at 3.72%, its highest to date by some margin, and implies just shy of +300bps of tightening over 5 meetings. Markets also moved to price in a terminal rate above 4% in the middle of next year, closer to DB's call which has been the most aggressive on the street. It’s perhaps an understatement to say the market will be hyper focused on how the Fed communicates the near-term path of policy at this week’s FOMC, especially including what size rate hikes they’re considering as adequate for the rest of the year. The selloff was echoed in Europe, where 10yr bunds (+11.5bps), OATs (+15.4bps), and BTPs (+26.2bps) all soldoff, even before the blockbuster WSJ report. ECB speakers returned to the docket after last week’s meeting, where Governing Council member Kazmir noted there was a clear need for a +50bp hike in September, in line with our European economics team’s call. Kazmir went on to warn that the economy faces weak growth for several quarters, piling onto what the market had already deduced – the sharp global repricing in monetary policy would weigh on growth. One of the major fears following the ECB meeting was that absent a new tool designed to stem fragmentation, peripheral spreads would widen out, and yesterday brought a fresh round of peripheral widening, with 10yr Italian spreads widening +14.6bps to bunds, with Spanish bonds widening +9.9bps. Indeed, 10yr BTPs crossed 4.0% for the first time since 2014. Equity markets got the message, selling off across the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 falling -3.87% into bear market territory, down -21.82% from the all-time highs reached in early January, with the STOXX 600 down -2.41%. At one point, every single share in the S&P 500 was lower, though the index staged a heroic rally leaving 5 shares higher on the day. That’s the lowest amount since June 11, 2020 when only one share advanced. Unsurprisingly, every S&P 500 sector was lower, with all but two sectors declining by more than 3%. The NASDAQ fell -4.68% on the hit from higher discount rates, now -32.68% from its November high. Mega-cap shares bore the brunt of higher discount rates, with the FANG+ falling -6.50%, its worst day since September 2020, and -40.98% lower from its own all-time highs reached in November. Markets are trying to bounce this morning with S&P 500 futures +1% and Nasdaq futures +1.15% As we discussed yesterday, this sharp rates repricing is partly due to another attempt at forward guidance from the Fed. Having signalled 50bps at the next two meetings a few weeks ago they reduced volatility. However when it became clear that this guidance may be insufficient it has opened up a market attack. The last man standing continues to be the BoJ and to be honest the more the market attacks the Fed and the ECB the more likely it is that the BoJ own forward guidance (in the form of YCC) will end very messily with huge implications for global rates. If the BoJ throws in the towel in H2 then global bond markets lose a huge anchor. Certainly one to watch for every morning when you wake up! Indeed the BOJ ramped up its scheduled purchases of 5-to-10-year debt today from an expected ¥500 billion to ¥800 billion as the yield on the 10yr JGBs jumped to 0.255%, edging past the upper end of the central bank’s 0.25% target range. Talking of Asia, equity markets are lower this morning but markets are trying to fight back. The Nikkei (-2.00%) is the largest underperformer with the Hang Seng (-1.15%) and Kospi (-1.11%) also lagging. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (-1.60%) and CSI (-1.86%) are also lower. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 is -4.54% lower after returning to trade following a holiday yesterday. In such a broad-based selloff, many would have been interested in how crypto assets would hold up, supposedly uncorrelated with traditional assets. However, digital assets did not escape the wrath of plummeting risk sentiment, with bitcoin falling -15.13% and down another -5.28% this morning as we type. At one point this morning, Bitcoin fell about -10% to trade at $20,823 before recovering a little. There were reports that some exchanges were having trouble liquidating holdings of various crypto assets. This is a classic deleveraging and unwinding of a bubble trade. To the day ahead now. The ECB’s Schnabel speaks, while in data we get UK jobless claims, ILO unemployment rate, ZEW surveys for the Eurozone and Germany, US NFIB small business optimism and PPI, and Canadian manufacturing sales. Hold on to your hats. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/14/2022 - 07:49.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 14th, 2022

US Futures On Edge Ahead Of "Extraordinarily Elevated" CPI Print

US Futures On Edge Ahead Of "Extraordinarily Elevated" CPI Print US index futures were flat on Tuesday, rebounding off overnight session lows as investors braced for red hot inflation data which the White House yesterday called "extraordinarily elevated" and which will likely boost the argument for aggressive monetary tightening - perhaps even a 75bps or intermeeting rate hike - despite a looming economic slowdown. Nasdaq futures were 0.2% higher, while S&P futures were flat after dropping as much as 0.5%. China’s Premier Li Keqiang issued a third warning about economic growth risks in less than a week but Chinese stocks bounced back over bets that policy makers will take measures to support the economy. The rate on 10-year Treasuries rose to the highest since 2018 as the global bond rout continued, rising for an 8th straight day as high as 2.83% before easing. The Bloomberg dollar index was set to extend its longest winning streak since 2020, rising for a ninth day. Both trends reflect expectations that the Fed will implement its fastest monetary tightening since 1994. The euro weakened. Oil staged a partial recovery after a tumble that saw crude erase most of the gains sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China’s virus outbreaks and mobility curbs, in pursuit of a controversial Covid-zero strategy, are imperiling demand. “What we’re faced with this year is stagflation,” Kathryn Rooney Vera, head of global macro research at Bulltick LLC, said on Bloomberg Television. “It’s a very complicated environment that the Fed has found itself in” and the market is pricing in potentially 50 basis points of hikes at each of the next two policy meetings, she added. Meanwhile, the Peterson Institute for International Economics expects a global recession by the end of the year due to Covid-related shutdowns in China and the Russia-Ukraine war In premarket trading, Apple was flat after Citi said that it was likely to announce an incremental stock buyback of $80b-$90b and raise its dividend by 5-10% when it reports 2Q results later this month, according to Citi. Hewlett Packard Enterprise fell 3.6% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight and lowered its industry view for telecom and networking equipment to cautious from in-line, citing demand data. Other notable premarket movers include: Cisco (CSCO US) drop as much as 2.1% in premarket after Citi cuts rating to sell from neutral, citing competition and more difficult year-over-year comparisons for quarters ahead. Biodesix (BDSX US) surges 79% premarket after its chairman, board members revealed they had bought shares in the biotechnology firm. Coinbase (COIN US) price target cut by Mizuho Securities for a second straight week, this time citing analysis which suggests the cryptocurrency exchange is losing market share to other platforms. Shares up 0.8% premarket. Aeglea BioTherapeutics (AGLE US) shared added data from the PEACE Phase 3 study of pegzilarginase for the treatment of arginase 1 deficiency, with shares gaining 31% premarket. Global growth optimism sank to a fresh all-time low, with recession fears surging in the world’s investment community, according to the latest monthly Bank of America survey of fund managers. The next major test for markets looms later Tuesday, when the U.S. is expected to unveil an inflation print for March of more than 8%, the highest since early 1982 (see our CPI preview here).  One of the more dangerous scenarios for markets “is that we have to raise rates at such a pace that it will clamp down on growth,” Kathryn Kaminski, chief research strategist at AlphaSimplex Group, said on Bloomberg Television. “That’s the scenario that most people are worried about.” “These concerns over inflation are likely to remain in focus over the next two days,” said Michael Hewson, chief analyst at CMC Markets in London. “Today’s CPI numbers look set to seal the deal on a 50 basis-point rate move at the Federal Reserve’s May meeting, a move that bond markets are already discounting with the prospect of more to come.” In Europe, stocks pared some losses as energy benefits from oil’s rally, while global yields slightly cool their ascent. Declines in the personal care and healthcare industries outweighed gains for energy and mining companies, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index down 0.5% and the Euro Stoxx 50 falling 0.9%. IBEX outperformed, dropping 0.3%, DAX lags, dropping 1.1%. Health care, banks and financial services are the worst performing sectors. Energy is the best performing sector of Stoxx 600. Banking stocks were among the biggest decliners in Europe as concern over the impact of war in Ukraine and the possibility of recession started to impact profit estimates. Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG led the drop after stake sales worth a combined 1.75 billion euros ($1.9 billion) in Germany’s two largest listed banks. Russian stocks fell for a third day. Dubai Electricity & Water Authority jumped in its trading debut after raising $6.1 billion in the world’s second-biggest initial public offering this year. In the U.K., living standards fell at the fastest pace in more than eight years in February as wages lagged further behind the rate of inflation. Earlier in the session, Asia’s stock benchmark pared much of its early drop on Tuesday, with Chinese shares bouncing back on speculation that policy makers will step in to support the economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.6% as of 6:00 p.m. in Singapore after falling as much as 1%. The CSI 300 Index advanced by the most this month as traders bet that authorities may step up monetary-policy easing or relax some of the most severe Covid-19 restrictions. The broader risk-off sentiment remained, however, as lockdowns in China and higher U.S. interest rates dim the region’s growth prospects. Industrial firms were among the biggest drags on the MSCI measure, while chipmakers and electronic-hardware stocks followed U.S. tech peers lower as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 2.8%. “Investors globally are looking to hold defensive stocks and sell cyclical stocks that may be affected economically, and machinery-related stocks are one of the more economically sensitive ones,” said Shogo Maekawa, a strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. Key gauges in Japan, the Philippines and South Korea led equity declines. Chinese tech stocks edged higher after a volatile trading day, as investors tipped toward optimism after Beijing’s approval of new video game licenses. China’s Covid-Zero policy remains a concern for international investors and is expected to continue to weigh on Asian shares, with the regional benchmark trading at its lowest since March 16. Sri Lanka warned of an unprecedented default and halted payments on foreign debt, an extraordinary step taken to preserve its dwindling dollar stockpile for essential food and fuel imports. Japanese equities dropped, dragged by technology shares for a second day amid ongoing concerns over inflation and Federal Reserve monetary policy. Electronics and machinery makers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 1.4%. Fast Retailing and Tokyo Electron were the largest contributors to a 1.8% loss in the Nikkei 225. The yen slightly extended losses to around 125.5 per dollar after weakening 0.8% Monday. “Earnings will start coming out now, and I think it will still take some time before the uncertainty clears up and people start to buy back,” said said Shogo Maekawa, a strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “Investors globally are looking to hold defensive stocks and sell cyclical stocks that may be affected economically, and machinery-related stocks are one of the more economically sensitive ones.” Australian stocks fell, led by the healthcare sector: the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.4% to close at 7,454.00, with the health sector falling most.  Imugene was the biggest decliner on the benchmark gauge. Mining company Regis rose for a fourth day to the highest since Oct. 25, leading gains in the materials sector. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.4% to 11,889.17 In rates, treasuries remained cheaper across the curve after paring declines that were led by bunds as ECB and BOE policy-tightening premium increased further. U.S. yields cheaper by up to 2bp across front-end of the curve which underperforms slightly; 10-year yields around 2.79%, higher by ~1bp, with German 10-year cheaper by an additional 1bp. Focal points for U.S. session include March CPI data -- with 5-year TIPS breakeven rate ~25bp off its March peak -- and $34b 10-year note reopening. Monday’s 3-year auction was solid; cycle concludes Wednesday with $20b 30-year bond reopening. Gilts and bunds extended their drop as the market set pre-CPI positioning. U.K.’s 10-year debt sale had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.64. Germany’s 2-year notes sale ahead, while U.S. 10-year sale is due after inflation data later Tuesday. In FX, the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged up 0.1%, advancing for a ninth consecutive session - its longest winning stretch since 2020 - as traders bet on the Federal Reserve hiking rates to counter heated price growth, with the Australian dollar outperforming while the Swiss franc lagged. Hedge funds faded the euro move below 1.0860, while trimming dollar-yen longs above 125.50, two Europe-based traders say. The euro neared $1.0850 before paring losses; the bund curve bear steepens Germany’s ZEW investor expectations fell to to -41.0 (estimate -48.5) in April from -39.3 in March The pound fell below 1.30 per dollar, while gilts inched lower, led by the long end of the curve. U.K. jobs data showed a strong labor market, although average earnings excluding bonuses adjusted for prices dropped the most since late 2013 year-on-year. U.K. retailers warned that inflation is curbing demand, recording a sharp slowdown in sales in March. The Australian and New Zealand dollars erased an Asia session loss against the U.S. dollar. Australian sovereign bonds followed Treasuries lower and in view of a bounce in crude oil and iron ore, the latter of which arrested a five-day slide. Australian business sentiment surged as firms passed on increasing costs to consumers, reflecting strong underlying demand that highlights both economic momentum and gathering inflationary pressures The yen weakened for an eighth day before U.S. CPI numbers that are expected to reinforce the economic and monetary policy divergence between America and Japan. Five-year bonds outperformed after a solid auction. The yen’s implied and historical volatility may not be in the driver’s seat for the Group-of-10, but traders are betting it’s the currency that can move the most over the next month Bitcoin is firmer and is holding onto the USD 40k mark after pronounced pressure in yesterday's session saw a breach of the level and a subsequent fall to a USD 39.21k overnight low. Bitcoin has dropped for seven days out of the past eight. In commodities, crude futures advanced with WTI trading within Monday’s range, adding 3.2% to around $97. Brent rises 3.4% above $101. Spot gold falls roughly $2 to trade around $1,950/oz. Base metals are mixed; LME tin falls 0.6% while LME nickel gains 1.5%. Looking at the day ahead, today brings the ever-important US CPI release. Consensus expects the monthly gain in headline CPI of +1.2% will push the year-on-year rate to +8.4%, the highest since 1981. However, many economists also think that March is the peak in the year-on-year rates for both headline and core. Elsewhere in the US, there’s the March NFIB small business optimism index. We’ll also get February UK unemployment and the April German ZEW survey. Finally, central bank speakers today include the Fed’s Brainard and Barkin. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,402.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 454.78 MXAP down 0.5% to 172.46 MXAPJ little changed at 573.96 Nikkei down 1.8% to 26,334.98 Topix down 1.4% to 1,863.63 Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 21,319.13 Shanghai Composite up 1.5% to 3,213.33 Sensex down 0.7% to 58,579.23 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,453.98 Kospi down 1.0% to 2,666.76 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.86% Euro down 0.2% to $1.0862 Brent Futures up 2.2% to $100.65/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,954.10 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.24% to 100.17 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Global growth optimism has sunk to an all-time low, with recession fears surging in the world’s investment community, according to the latest Bank of America Corp. fund manager survey Some Russian exporters face difficulties selling foreign currency proceeds in the market, newspaper Vedomosti reports, citing unidentified people close to the government, Bank of Russia and some exporters Global crude markets have swung from chaos to calm in just a few weeks as frenzied trading and a run- up in prices triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine gives way to a return to more normal conditions U.K. living standards fell at the fastest pace in more than eight years in February as wages lagged further behind the rate of inflation. Average earnings excluding bonuses rose 4.1% from a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. Adjusted for prices over the same period, however, they dropped 1.3%, the most since late 2013 A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks followed suit to the losses across global counterparts amid higher yields and inflationary concerns. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness across defensives and tech but with losses in the broader market somewhat contained amid the improvement in NAB Business Confidence and Conditions. Nikkei 225 declined despite recent currency depreciation and the ruling LDP seeking to provide cash handouts. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive with early support in the former as gaming and internet stocks were boosted by China’s resumption of videogame approvals following a 9-month suspension. However, the gains for the Hong Kong benchmark were later pared and the mainland bourse was also cautious amid ongoing COVID woes. Top Asian News China Tech Stocks Slide as Risks Outweigh Game Approval Uplift Tencent Soars After China Ends Eight-Month Gaming Freeze Macau Premium Mass Operators to Outperform Peers: Citi Australia Minister To Make Rare Solomon Islands Trip, ABC says European bourses are subdued, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%, but off lows as participants await the US CPI metrics for fresh insight into the inflation narrative and for any read across to ongoing yield upside. The breakdown features relatively broad-based losses as the CAC 40 is in-line after Monday's election inspired outperformance while Banking names lag initially in a pullback from that session’s strength while Energy & Tech fare better. Stateside, futures are attempting to move into positive territory, ES Unch., but are yet to find a robust foothold. Top European News German Investor Mood Sours Further Amid War-Driven Inflation U.K. Workers See Biggest Fall in Living Standards in Eight Years U.K. Labor Market Missing Almost 600,000 People Since Covid Hit EasyJet Sees Summer Flight Capacity Approaching 2019 Levels Fixed Income Bonds bounce after sliding once more and setting fresh yield highs; 10 year T-note, Bunds and Gilts off new 119-10+, 154.27 and 118.42 cycle lows. UK and German debt may be gleaning some comfort from solid covers at Schatz and 2032 DMO auctions. Treasuries await US CPI and 10 year supply. FX: Greenback grinds higher before US CPI with White House officials upping the ante for a hot set of inflation data, DXY eclipses last Friday's peak within a firmer 100.230-99.923 range. Aussie resilient after increases in NAB business sentiment and conditions and Kiwi underpinned awaiting 25bp or 50bp from the RBNZ, overnight; AUD/USD bounces off 0.7400 and NZD/USD keeps grip of 0.6800 handle. Euro holds above recent low and 2022 trough with some traction from Germany’s ZEW survey showing not as bad as feared economic sentiment and current conditions, EUR/USD above 1.0850 vs 1.0836 last Friday and 1.0806 y-t-d base. Sterling treading water around 1.3000 after mixed UK jobs and earnings, Loonie looking for support via decent option expiry interest at 1.2650 or chart levels after dropping through 200 DMA before BoC on Wednesday. Yen and Franc yield to divergent dynamics; USD/JPY poised below 2015 peak and USD/CHF rebounds from low 0.9300 zone. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said FX stability is important but did not comment on FX levels, while he added they are watching closely with vigilance how FX moves could impact Japan's economy. Suzuki also noted that excess FX volatility and disorderly FX moves could have an adverse effect on Japan's economy, while they will respond to FX as appropriate while communicating with the US and other countries. Commodities: Crude benchmarks are continuing to regain composure after Monday's pressure, with WTI and Brent in proximity to highs of USD 97.72/bbl and USD 102.15/bbl respectively. European Commission official said the EU repeated its call during a meeting with OPEC for oil producers to look at whether they can increase deliveries, according to Reuters. US President Biden will on Tuesday lay out plans to extend the availability of higher biofuels-blended gasoline during the summer in a bit to control fuel costs, according to Reuters sources. Spot gold and silver are contained, particularly in the context of yesterday's price action, ahead of the key US events on the schedule. US Event Calendar 06:00: March SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM dropped to 93.2, est. 95.0, prior 95.7 08:30: March CPI YoY, est. 8.4%, prior 7.9%; CPI MoM, est. 1.2%, prior 0.8% 08:30: March CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 6.6%, prior 6.4%; CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5% 08:30: March Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior -2.6%, revised -2.5% 08:30: March Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -2.3%, revised -2.2% 14:00: March Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$190b, prior -$659.6b       DB's Tim Wessel concludes the overnight wrap Yesterday was painted with a panoply of senior-level gatherings. The EU foreign ministers met in Luxembourg, where they weighed whether to sanction Russia’s energy sector. Those closer to Russia’s border were quicker to advocate for a ban on oil imports. The idea was not ruled out, with several EU countries seeking more time to transition energy supplies before signing up for an outright ban. This, as Russia posted its biggest current account surplus in nearly three decades on the back of strong energy export revenues. Germany is also ready to send weapons to Ukraine according to Chancellor Scholz. Austrian Chancellor Nehammer, meanwhile, became the first European head of state to meet with President Putin in person since his invasion. Nehammer expressed pessimism on peace prospects following the discussion. Farther afield, President Biden met with Indian Prime Minister Modi. Biden pledged to help India diversify its energy sources in an attempt to persuade India from increasing purchases of Russian energy exports. Finally, as we go to press this morning, the Pentagon is monitoring claims that Russia used a chemical agent in Mariupol. A number of news agencies have reported the accusation, but as of yet, none have been able to verify the original claim. If true, that would mark a much-feared escalation in tactics as Ukraine braces for a renewed assault on its territory in the east. After starting the week off on a weak foot, S&P 500 futures are down another -0.41% this morning. Back to yesterday, Treasury yields continued their blistering selloff and curve re-steepening. Chicago Fed President Evans, owner of an inimitable dovish CV, thought that a +50bp hike in May was not only possible, but likely. He went on to say that policy should get to neutral by December, a range he pegged between 2.25% and 2.5%, which implies at least two +50bp hikes this year. The implied probability of a +50bp hike in May edged to a cycle high of 91.2%, with the amount of anticipated 2022 policy rate tightening hitting its own high at +255bps. 10yr Treasury yields gained another +8.0bps to 2.78%, their highest levels since January 2019, with breakevens (+4.3bps) and real yields (+3.7bps) each contributing. 2s10s steepened another +9.6bps to +27.4bps, its highest level in a month. Much like how the Fed’s rhetoric has shaded ever more restrictive over the last few months, so too has their recent handicapping of a soft landing turned more pessimistic. Once a widely-accepted base case, yesterday Governor Waller was much more blunt, if not fatalistic, noting that interest rates are a “brute-force tool” and that there will be some “collateral damage” when they are used to slow inflation. US equities took some collateral damage yesterday, with the S&P 500 down -1.69% to start the week, with every sector in the red, bringing YTD performance down to -7.42%. Energy (-3.11%) led the declines on the fall in oil prices, with brent crude futures down -4.18% to close below $100 for the first time in a month. Mega-cap tech names underperformed, with FANG+ falling -3.03%, given the discount rate hit to valuations, capping off five straight days of declines that has brought the FANG+ -11.73% lower. The index is now down -17.69% on the year. It was a similar story in Europe, with year-end OIS rates increasing +5.4bps to +67.6bps, a cycle high, suggesting some probability that the deposit rate could end the year in positive territory. 10yr bund yields climbed +10.9bps to 0.82%, the highest level since 2015, while 10yr gilts gained +9.7bps to 1.85%, their highest since 2016. European stocks were a touch more resilient, with the STOXX 600 falling -0.59%. In Europe, markets were also reacting to the first round of the French election. French assets outperformed as President Macron’s lead over Marine Le Pen was slightly wider than the final polls had implied. In particular, the spread of French 10yr yields over bunds narrowed by -5.2bps, coming down from its 2-year high last Friday. Furthermore, the CAC 40 (+0.12%) outperformed all the other major European equity indices. The second round is set for later this month, and polls over the last 24 hours were a bit more favorable to Macron than the readings from late last week. Macron leads Le Pen by 55%-45% in Opinionway’s poll, and then 54.5%-45.5% in Odoxa’s. Ifop was somewhat narrower, at 52.5%-47.5%, but even that was wider than the 51%-49% margin they reported Sunday night. Harris had a 53-47% margin, also wider than its previous reading. For those after further information on the election, Marc de-Muizon from DB’s European economics team has published his takeaways following the first round (link here). The other major thematic story is the continued Covid spread in China, their strict lockdown response, and the downstream impacts on supply chains and markets. Asian equities are broadly in the red to start trading this morning, with tech shares also lagging on the increase in long-dated sovereign yields. The Nikkei (-1.44%) is leading losses, which comes as Japanese PPI rose to +9.5% in March, while the February figure was revised to a four-decade high of +9.7%. Oil prices have partially retraced yesterday’s big decline, with Brent futures rising +1.33% to $99.79/bbl. 10yr Treasury yields continue to forge a path higher, increasing +4.2bps to a three-year high of 2.82% this morning. The yield curve has shifted higher in parallel, with 2yr yields not far behind at +3.7bps. There wasn’t a massive amount of data yesterday, but we did get the monthly GDP reading for February from the UK. That showed the economy grew by just +0.1% that month (vs. +0.2% expected). Consumers increased their inflation expectations for the year ahead to +6.6%, while three-year inflation dropped to +3.7%, according to the New York Fed’s survey. To the day ahead, today brings the ever-important US CPI release. Our US econ and rates team put our their joint-preview, here. They’re expecting the monthly gain in headline CPI of +1.3% will push the year-on-year rate to +8.6%, the highest since 1981. However, they think that March is the peak in the year-on-year rates for both headline and core. Elsewhere in the US, there’s the March NFIB small business optimism index. We’ll also get February UK unemployment and the April German ZEW survey. Finally, central bank speakers today include the Fed’s Brainard and Barkin. Tyler Durden Tue, 04/12/2022 - 08:02.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeApr 12th, 2022

Futures Jump In Volatile Session Dragged By Latest Twists In Omicron Saga

Futures Jump In Volatile Session Dragged By Latest Twists In Omicron Saga Much of the overnight session was a snooze fest with stocks drifting first higher then lower after surging on Tuesday, as the narrative meandered from "omicron fears ease" optimism to "vaccines won't work" pessimism, before futures took a sudden leg lower, dropping into the red just after 530am ET, following news that UK's Boris Johnson would introduce new restrictions in England to curb Omicron spread, sparking fears that Omicron is more dangerous that expected (and than futures reflected). However, this episode of pessimism proved short-lived because just an hour later, the WSJ confirmed that Omicron is really just a pitch for covid booster shots when it reported that even though the covid vaccine loses significant effectiveness against Omicron in an early study, this is miraculously reversed with a booster shot as three doses of the vaccine were able to neutralize the variant in an initial laboratory study, and the companies said two doses may still protect against severe disease. Futures quickly shot up on the news, spiking above the gamma "all clear" level of 4,700 in a move best summarized with the following chart. And so, after going nowhere, S&P futures climbed for a third day, last seen 12 points, or 0.3% higher, just around 4,700 after rising the most since March on Tuesday. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index rose following the biggest jump in more than a year. In addition to the omicron soap opera, which as we noted yesterday turns out was just one staged covid booster shot advertisement (because Pfizer and Moderna can always do with a bigger yacth), sentiment was also lifted by Chinese authorities' reversal to "easing mode" and aggressive efforts to limit the fallout from property market woes which lifted risk assets in Asia even as key debt deadlines at China Evergrande Group and Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. passed without any sign of payment. "Clearly in the very short term uncertainty has risen over the Omicron virus... but overall at this stage we do not believe it will derail the macro picture in the medium-term," said Jeremy Gatto, multi-asset portfolio manager at Unigestion. Treasury yields were little changed after rising across the curve Tuesday. The VIX spiked first on the FT news, then dropped back into the red, while the dollar was flat and crude rose after turning red. Besides macro, micro was also in play and here are some other notable premarket movers Apple (AAPL US) ticks 1% higher in premarket trading following a Nikkei report that the tech giant told suppliers to speed up iPhone output for Nov.-Jan, citing people it didn’t identify. (AMZN US) shares in focus after an Amazon Web Services outage is wreaking havoc on the e-commerce giant’s delivery operation Stitch Fix (SFIX US) tumbles 25% in U.S. premarket trading after a 2Q forecast miss that analysts called “surprising,” while customer additions also disappointed Pfizer (PFE US) shares drop 2% in U.S. premarket trading after an early study showed that the company’s vaccine provides less immunity to the omicron variant Dare Bioscience (DARE US) soars 41% in premarket trading after Xaciato gets FDA approval for treating bacterial vaginosis EPAM Systems (EPAM US) soars 8% in premarket after S&P Dow Jones Indices said co. will replace Kansas City Southern in the S&P 500 effective prior to the opening of trading on Dec. 14 Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT US) upgraded to buy from hold and target boosted to Street-high $32 from $29 at Deutsche Bank with the company seen as a major beneficiary from the shift to electric vehicles. Shares up 4.3% in premarket trading NXP Semiconductor (NXPI US) shares slide 2.2% in U.S. premarket trading after the chipmaker got a new sell rating at UBS Dave & Buster’s (PLAY US) gained 3.5% postmarket after the dining and entertainment company reported EPS that beat the average analyst estimate and authorized a $100 million share buyback program "Every day that passes without a wave of severe cases driven by Omicron is offering more hope that this won't be the curveball to throw the recovery off course," wrote Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid in a note to clients. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index initially drifted both higher and lower then bounced 0.3% on the favorable Pfizer and BioNTech news one day after posting its bigger surge in a year. European benchmark index earlier rose as much as 2%, dropped 2.1%. Health care sub-index leads gains, rising 1.2%, followed by travel stocks. The Stoxx 600 closed 2.5% higher on Tuesday, biggest gain since November 2020 Earlier in the session, Asia stocks also rose for a second day as concerns about the omicron variant and China’s economic slowdown eased. The MSCI AsiaPacific Index climbed as much as 0.9% after capping its biggest one-day gain in more than three months on Tuesday. Technology and health-care shares provided the biggest boosts. Benchmarks in New Zealand and India -- where the central bank held rates at a record low -- were among the day’s best performers. “The biggest point appealing to investors is that the Omicron variant doesn’t seem to be too fatal,” which is encouraging to those who had been going short to close out their positions, said Tomoichiro Kubota, a senior market analyst at Matsui Securities in Tokyo. “Worry that the Chinese economy will lose its growth momentum has subsided quite a bit.” Thus far, Omicron cases haven’t overwhelmed hospitals while vaccine developments indicate some promise in dealing with the variant. While vaccines like the one made by Pfizer and BioNTech SE may be less powerful against the new strain, protection can be fortified with boosters. The two-day rally in the Asian stock benchmark marks a sharp turnaround following weeks of declines since mid-November. Stocks in China also climbed for a second day. The nation’s central bank said Monday it will cut the amount of cash most banks must keep in reserve from Dec. 15, providing a liquidity boost and helping restore investor confidence In FX, news on the Omicron variant rippled through G-10 currencies after a report the Pfizer vaccine could neutralize the Omicron variant boosted risk appetite. The pound underperformed other Group-of-10 peers, extending declines after reports that the U.K. government is poised to introduce new Covid-19 restrictions.  A gauge of the dollar’s strength fluctuated as Treasuries pare gains and stocks rally after a report that said Pfizer and BioNTech claim three vaccine doses neutralize the omicron variant. EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.1277; USD/NOK falls as much as 0.8% to 8.9459, lowest since Nov. 25 Sterling fell against the euro and the dollar, as traders pare bets on the path of Bank of England rate hikes following reports that the U.K. could introduce fresh Covid-19 restrictions such as working from home and vaccine passports for large venues. Money markets pare rate hike bets, with just six basis points of interest rate hikes priced in for the BOE meeting next week. GBP/USD falls as much as 0.6% to 1.3163, testing the key level of 1.3165, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of gains since March 2020. EUR/GBP gains as much as 0.7% to 0.85695, the highest since Nov. 11. “The market will probably see this as more U.K. specific and therefore an issue for the pound at least in the short term,” said Stuart Bennett, FX strategist at Santander. In rates, Treasuries were mixed with markets reacting in a risk-on manner to the Dow Jones report that Pfizer and BioNTech claim three vaccine doses neutralize the omicron variant. Yields remain richer by less than 1bp across long-end of the curve while front-end trades cheaper on the day, flattening curve spreads. Session’s focal points include $36b 10-year note reopening at 1pm ET, following Tuesday’s strong 3-year note auction. Treasury 10-year yields around 1.475%, near flat on the day; gilts outperform slightly after Financial Times report that further Covid restrictions will be announced imminently to curb the variant’s spread. U.S. 2-year yields were cheaper by 1bp on the day, rose to new 2021 high following Pfizer vaccine report; 2s10s spread erased a flattening move In commodities, crude futures turned red, WTI falling 0.8%, popping back below $72. Spot gold holds Asia’s modest gains, adding $8 to trade near $1,792/oz. Looking at the day ahead, and Olaf Scholz is expected to become German Chancellor in a Bundestag vote today. From central banks, the Bank of Canada will be deciding on rates, and we’ll also hear from ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Schnabel. Finally, data releases include the JOLTS job openings from the US for October. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,693.75 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 480.55 MXAP up 0.7% to 194.84 MXAPJ up 0.6% to 632.78 Nikkei up 1.4% to 28,860.62 Topix up 0.6% to 2,002.24 Hang Seng Index little changed at 23,996.87 Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,637.57 Sensex up 1.8% to 58,654.25 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.3% to 7,405.45 Kospi up 0.3% to 3,001.80 Brent Futures down 0.5% to $75.04/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,790.33 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.17% to 96.20 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.38% Euro up 0.2% to $1.1286 Brent Futures down 0.5% to $75.04/bbl Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The omicron variant of Covid-19 must inflict significant damage on the euro-area economy for European Central Bank Governing Council member Martins Kazaks to back additional stimulus “The current phase of higher inflation could last longer than expected only some months ago,” ECB vice president Luis de Guindos says at event The earliest studies on omicron are in and the glimpse they’re providing is cautiously optimistic: while vaccines like the one made by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE may be less powerful against the new variant, protection can be fortified with boosters U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to announce new Covid-19 restrictions in England, known as “Plan B,” to stop the spread of the Omicron variant, the Financial Times reported, citing three senior Whitehall officials familiar with the matter. French economic activity will continue to rise in December, despite another wave of the Covid-19 pandemic and fresh uncertainty over the omicron variant, according the Bank of France The Kingdom of Denmark will sell a sovereign green bond for the first time next month to help the Nordic nation meet one of the world’s most ambitious climate targets Tom Hayes, the former UBS Group AG and Citigroup Inc. trader who became the face of the sprawling Libor scandal, has lost his bid to appeal his U.K. criminal conviction Poland is poised for a hefty increase in interest rates after a spike in inflation to a two- decade high convinced central bankers that spiraling price growth isn’t transitory. Of 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, 20 expect a 50 basis-point hike to 1.75% today and 10 see the rate rising to 2%. The other two expect a 25 basis-point increase Australia is weighing plans for a central bank-issued digital currency alongside the regulation of the crypto market as it seeks to overhaul how the nation’s consumers and businesses pay for goods and services Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya dropped a strong hint that big firms are in less need of funding support, a comment that will likely fuel speculation the BOJ will scale back its pandemic buying of corporate bonds and commercial paper A detailed summary of global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded positively as the region took impetus from the global risk momentum following the tech-led rally in the US, where Apple shares rose to a record high and amid increased optimism that Omicron could be less dangerous than prior variants. This was after early hospitalisation data from South Africa showed the new variant could result in less severe COVID and NIH's Fauci also suggested that Omicron was 'almost certainly' not more severe than Delta, although there were some slight headwinds in late Wall Street trade after a small study pointed to reduced vaccine efficacy against the new variant. The ASX 200 (+1.3%) was underpinned in which tech led the broad gains across sectors as it found inspiration from the outperformance of big tech stateside, and with energy bolstered by the recent rebound in underlying oil prices. The Nikkei 225 (+1.4%) conformed to the upbeat mood although further advances were capped after USD/JPY eased off the prior day’s highs and following a wider-than-expected contraction to the economy with the final annualised Q3 GDP at -3.6% vs exp. -3.1%. The Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.2%) were less decisive and initially lagged behind their peers as sentiment was mired by default concerns due to the failure by Evergrande to pay bondholders in the lapsed 30-day grace period on two USD-denominated bond payments and with Kaisa Group in a trading halt after missing the deadline for USD 400mln in offshore debt which didn’t bode well for its affiliates. Furthermore, China Aoyuan Property Group received over USD 650mln in repayment demands and warned it may not be able to meet debt obligations, while a subdued Hong Kong debut for Weibo shares which declined around 6% from the offer price added to the glum mood for Hong Kong’s blue-chip tech stocks, as did reports that China is to tighten rules for tech companies seeking foreign funding. Finally, 10yr JGBs languished after spillover selling from T-notes and due to the heightened global risk appetite, but with downside stemmed by support at the key psychological 152.00 level and amid the presence of the BoJ in the market today for over JPY 1.0tln of JGBs. Top Asian News China Clean Car Sales Spike as Consumers Embrace Electric Gold Edges Higher as Traders Weigh Vaccine Efficacy, Geopolitics Paint Maker Avia Avian Falls in Debut After $763 Million IPO Tokyo Prepares to Introduce Same-Sex Partnerships Next Year Equities in Europe shifted to a lower configuration after a mixed open (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%; Stoxx 600 -0.1%) as sentiment was dented by rumours of tightening COVID measures in the UK. Markets have been awaiting the next catalyst to latch onto for direction amidst a lack of fresh fundamentals. US equity futures have also been dented but to a lesser extent, with the YM (-0.1%) and ES (Unch) straddling behind the NQ (+0.2%) and RTY (+0.2%). Sources in recent trade suggested an 85% chance of the UK implementing COVID Plan B, according to Times' Dunn; reports indicate such restrictions could be implemented on Thursday, with the potential for an announcement today. In terms of the timings, the UK cabinet is penciled in for 15:45GMT and presser for 17:30GMT on Plan B, according to BBC's Goodall. Note, this will not be a formal lockdown but more so work-from-home guidance, vaccine passports for nightlife and numerical restrictions on indoor/outdoor gatherings. APAC closed in the green across the board following the tech-led rally in the US. The upside overnight was attributed to a continuation of market optimism after early hospitalisation data from South Africa showed the new variant could result in less severe COVID, albeit after a small study pointed to reduced vaccine efficacy against the new variant. Participants will be closely watching any updates from the vaccine-makers, with the BioNTech CEO stating the drugmaker has data coming Wednesday or Thursday related to the new COVID-19 variant, thus markets will be eyeing a potential update this week ahead of the Pfizer investor call next Friday. Back to European, the UK’s FTSE 100 (Unch) and the Swiss SMI (+0.8%) are largely buoyed by their defensive stocks, with sectors seeing a defensive formation, albeit to a slightly lesser extent vs the open. Healthcare retains its top spot closely followed by Food & Beverages, although Personal & Household Goods and Telecoms have moved down the ranks. On the flip side, Retail, Banks and Travel & Leisure trade at the bottom of the bunch, whilst Tech nursed some earlier losses after opening as the lagging sector. In terms of individual movers, Nestle (+1.8%) is bolstered after announcing a CHF 20bln share repurchase programme alongside a stake reduction in L'Oreal (+1.0%) to 20.1% from 23.3% - worth some EUR 9bln. L’Oreal has shrugged off the stake sale and conforms to the firm sectoral performance across the Personal & Household Goods. Meanwhile, chip names are under pressure after Nikkei sources reported that Apple (+0.8% pre-market) was forced to scale back the total output target for 2021, with iPhone and iPad assembly halted for several days due to supply chain constraints and restrictions on the use of power in China, multiple sources told Nikkei. STMicroelectronics (-1.7%) and Infineon (-5.0%) are among the losers, with the latter also weighed on by a broker downgrade at JPM. Top European News ECB’s Kazaks Sets High Bar for Omicron-Driven Extra Stimulus Biden Is Left Guessing Over Putin’s Ultimate Aim in Ukraine Byju’s Buys Austria’s GeoGebra to Bolster Online Math Courses Scholz Elected by Parliament to Take Charge as German Chancellor In FX, the Dollar index continues to hold above 96.000, but bounces have become less pronounced and the range so far today is distinctly narrower (96.285-130) in fitting with the generally restrained trade in pairings within the basket and beyond, bar a few exceptions. Price action suggests a relatively muted midweek session unless a major game-changer arrives and Wednesday’s agenda does not bode that well in terms of catalysts aside from JOLTS and the BoC policy meeting before the second leg of this week’s refunding in the form of Usd 36 bn 10 year notes. AUD/EUR - Notwithstanding the largely contained currency moves noted above, the Aussie is maintaining bullish momentum on specific factors including strength in iron ore prices and encouraging Chinese data plus PBoC easing that should have a positive knock-on effect for one of its main trading partners even though diplomatic relations between the two nations are increasingly strained. Aud/Usd has also cleared a couple of technical hurdles on the way up to circa 0.7143 and Aud/Nzd is firmer on the 1.0500 handle ahead of the RBA’s latest chart pack release and a speech by Governor Lowe. Elsewhere, the Euro has regained composure after its sub-1.1250 tumble on Tuesday vs the Buck and dip through 0.8500 against the Pound, but still faces psychological resistance at 1.1300 and the 21 DMA that comes in at 1.1317 today, while Eur/Gbp needs to breach the 100 DMA (0.8513) convincingly or close above to confirm a change in direction for the cross from a chart perspective. CHF/CAD/JPY/GBP/NZD - All sitting tight in relation to their US counterpart, with the Franc paring some declines between 0.9255-30 parameters and the Loonie straddling 1.2650 in the run up to the aforementioned BoC that is widely seen as a non-event given no new MPR or press conference, not to mention the actual changes in QE and rate guidance last time. Nevertheless, implied volatility is quite high via a 63 pip breakeven for Usd/Cad. Meanwhile, Sterling lost grip of the 1.3200 handle amidst swirling speculation about the UK reverting to plan B and more Tory MPs calling for PM Johnson to resign, the Yen is rotating around 113.50 eyeing broad risk sentiment and US Treasury yields in context of spreads to JGBs, and the Kiwi is lagging after touching 0.6800 awaiting independent impetus from NZ manufacturing sales for Q3. SCANDI/EM - The Nok extended its advantage/outperformance against the Sek as Brent rebounded towards Usd 76/brl in early trade and Riksbank’s Jansson retained reservations about flagging a repo rate hike at the end of the forecast horizon, while the Mxn and Rub also initially derived some support from oil with the latter also taking on board latest hawkish talk from the CBR. However, the Cny and Cnh are outpacing their rivals again with some assistance from a firmer PBoC midpoint fix to hit multi-year peaks vs the Usd and probe 6.3500 ahead of option expiry interest at 6.3000 and a Fib retracement at 6.2946, in stark contrast to the Try that is unwinding recent recovery gains with no help from the latest blast from Turkish President Erdogan - see 10.00GMT post in the Headline Feed for more. Conversely, the Czk has taken heed of CNB’s Holub underscoring tightening signals and expectations for the next rate convene and the Pln and Brl are anticipating hikes from the NBP and BCB. In commodities, crude futures have been hit on the prospect of imminent COVID-related measures in the UK, albeit the measures do not involve lockdowns. Brent and WTI front month futures slipped from European highs to breach APAC lows. The former dipped below USD 74.50/bbl from a USD 76.00/bbl European peak while its WTI counterpart tested USD 71.00/bbl from USD 72.50/bbl at best. Overnight the benchmarks traded on either side the USD 75/bbl mark and just under USD 72/bbl after the weekly Private Inventories printed a larger-than-expected draw (-3.6mln vs exp. -3.1mln), albeit the internals were less bullish. Yesterday also saw the release of the EIA STEO, cut its 2021 world oil demand growth forecast by an insignificant 10k BPD but raised the 2022 metric by 200k BPD – with the IEA and OPEC monthly reports poised to be released next week. On the vaccine front, a small preliminary study of 12 people showed a 40x reduction in neutralization capacity of the Pfizer vaccine against Omicron, but early hospitalisation data from South Africa showed the new variant could result in less severe COVID. BioNTech CEO said they have data coming in on Wednesday or Thursday related to the new Omicron variant. The geopolitical space is also worth keeping on the radar, with US President Biden yesterday warning Russian President Putin that gas exports via Nord Stream 2 will be targeted and more troops will be deployed if he orders an invasion of Ukraine. Further, reports suggested, an Indian army helicopter crashed in Tamil Nadu, with Chief of Defence staff reportedly on board, according to Sputnik. Note, Tamil Nadu is located towards the south of the country and away from conflict zones. Elsewhere spot gold was supported by the overnight pullback in the Dollar, but the recent risk aversion took the yellow metal above the 100 DMA around USD 1,790/oz, with nearby upside levels including the 200 DMA (1,792/oz) and the 50 DMA (1,794/oz). Copper prices meanwhile consolidated within a tight range, with LME copper holding onto a USD 9,500/t handle (just about). Dalian iron ore extended on gains in a continuation of the upside seen in recent trade. US Event Calendar 7am: Dec. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -7.2% 10am: Oct. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 10.5m, prior 10.4m DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A reminder that we are currently conducting our special 2022 survey. We ask about rates, equities, bond yields and the path of covid in 2022, amongst other things, and also return to a festive question we asked in 2019, namely your favourite ever Christmas songs. The link is here and it’ll be open until tomorrow. All help filling in very much appreciated. My optimism for life has been shattered this morning. Not from the markets or the virus but just as I woke this morning England cricketers finally surrendered and collapsed in a heap on the first day of the Ashes - one the oldest international rivalries in sport. It was all I could do not to turn round and go back to bed. However out of duty I’m soldering on. After the twins nativity play went without incident yesterday, this morning it’s Maisie’s turn. Given she’s in a wheelchair at the moment she can’t get on stage so they’ve given her a solo singing spot at the start. I’m going so I can bring a bucket for all my wife’s tears as she sings!! If I shed a tear I’ll pretend it’s because of the cricket. The global market rebound continued to gather strength yesterday as investors became increasingly optimistic that the Omicron variant wouldn’t prove as bad as initially feared. To be honest, it was more the absence of bad news rather than any concrete good news helping to drive sentiment. Late in the US session we did see some headlines suggesting that the Pfizer vaccine may provide some defence against Omicron but also that the new variant does evade some of the immunity produced by this vaccine. This report of the small study (12 people!!) from South Africa lacked substance but you could take positives and negatives from it. More information is clearly needed. For the markets though, every day that passes without a wave of severe cases driven by Omicron is offering more hope that this won’t be the curveball to throw the recovery off course. Indeed, to get a sense of the scale of the market rebound, both the S&P 500 and the STOXX 600 in Europe have now clocked in their strongest 2-day performances of 2021 so far, with the indices up by +3.27% and +3.76% respectively since the start of the week. Meanwhile, the VIX fell below 25 for the first time in a week. On the day, the S&P 500 (+2.07%) put in its strongest daily performance since March, whilst the STOXX 600 (+2.45%) saw its strongest daily performance since the news that the Pfizer vaccine was successful in trials back in November 2020. Once again the gains were incredibly broad-based, albeit with cyclical sectors leading the way. The Nasdaq (+3.03%) outperformed the S&P 500 for the first time in a week as tech shares led the rally. Small cap stocks also had a strong day, with the Russell 2000 up +2.28%, on the back of Omicron optimism. This recovery in risk assets was also seen in the bounceback in oil prices, with Brent crude (+3.23%) and WTI (+3.68%) now both up by more than $5.5/bbl since the start of the week, which puts them well on the way to ending a run of 6 consecutive weekly declines. For further evidence of this increased optimism, we can also look at the way that investors have been dialling back up their estimates of future rate hikes from the Fed, with yesterday seeing another push in this direction. Before the Omicron news hit, Fed fund futures were fully pricing in an initial hike by the June meeting, but by the close on the Monday after Thanksgiving they’d moved down those odds to just 61% in June, with an initial hike not fully priced until September. Fast forward just over a week however, and we’re now not only back to pricing in a June hike, but the odds of a May hike are standing at +78.8%, which is actually higher than the +66.1% chance priced before the Omicron news hit. A reminder that we’re just a week away now from the Fed’s next decision, where it’s hotly anticipated they could accelerate the pace at which they’ll taper their asset purchases. With investors bringing forward their bets on monetary tightening, front-end US Treasury yields were hitting post-pandemic highs yesterday, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +5.8bps to 0.69%, a level we haven’t seen since March 2020. Longer-dated yield increases weren’t as large, with the 10yr yield up +3.9bps to 1.47%, and the 5s30s curve flattened another -1.8bps to 54.4bps, just above the post-pandemic low of 53.7bps. Over in Europe there was similarly a rise in most countries’ bond yields, with those on 10yr bunds (+1.4bps), OATs (+1.0bps) and BTPs (+4.4bps) all moving higher, though incidentally, the 5s30s curve in Germany was also down -2.2bps to its own post-pandemic low of 50.0bps. One pretty big news story that markets have been relatively unperturbed by so far is the rising tensions between the US and Russia over Ukraine. Yesterday saw a video call between US President Biden and Russian President Putin. The US readout from the call did not offer much in the way of concrete details, but if you’re looking for any optimistic news, it said that both sides tasked their teams with following up. Setting the background for the call, there were reports immediately beforehand that the US was considering evacuating their citizens and posturing to stop Nord Stream 2 if Russia invaded Ukraine. The Ruble appreciated +0.42% against the dollar, and is now only slightly weaker versus the dollar on the week. Overnight in Asia stocks are trading mostly higher led by the Nikkei (+1.49%), CSI (+1.11%), Shanghai Composite (+0.86%) and the KOSPI (+0.78%) as markets respond positively to the Pfizer study mentioned at the top. The Hang Seng (-0.12%) is lagging though. In Japan, the final Q3 GDP contracted -3.6% quarter on quarter annualised against consensus expectations of -3.1% on lower consumer spending than initially estimated. In India, the RBI left the key policy rate unchanged for the ninth consecutive meeting today while underscoring increasing headwinds from the Omicron variant. Futures markets indicate a positive start in the US and Europe with S&P 500 (+0.41%) and DAX (+0.12%) futures trading in the green. Back on the pandemic, despite the relative benign news on Omicron, rising global case counts mean that the direction of travel is still towards tougher restrictions across a range of countries. In fact here in the UK, we saw the 7-day average of reported cases move above 48,000 for the first time since January. In terms of fresh restrictions, yesterday saw Canada announce that they’d be extending their vaccine mandate, which will now require employees in all federally regulated workplaces to be vaccinated, including road transportation, telecommunications and banking. In Sweden, the government is preparing a bill that would see Covid passes introduced for gyms and restaurants, while Poland put further measures in place, including remote schooling from December 20 until January 9, while vaccines would become mandatory for health workers, teachers and uniformed services from March 1. One move to ease restrictions came in Austria, where it was confirmed shops would be reopening on Monday, albeit only for those vaccinated, while restaurants and hotels would reopen the following week. If you see our daily charts you’ll see that cases in Austria have dropped sharply since the peaks a couple of weeks ago, albeit still high internationally. In DC, Congressional leaders apparently agreed to a deal that would ultimately lead to the debt ceiling being increased, after some procedural chicanery. Senate Majority Leader McConnell voiced support for the measure, which is a good sign for its ultimate prospects of passing, but it still needs at least 10 Republican votes in the Senate to pass. McConnell indicated the votes would be there when the Senate ultimately takes it up, which is reportedly set to happen this week. The House passed the measure last night. Yields on Treasury bills maturing in December fell following the headlines. Looking ahead, today will mark the end of an era in Germany, as Olaf Scholz is set to become Chancellor in a Bundestag vote later on, marking an end to Chancellor Merkel’s 16-year tenure. That vote will simply be a formality given the three parties of the incoming coalition (the centre-left SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP) have a comfortable majority between them, and the new cabinet will feature 7 SPD ministers, 5 Green ministers, and 4 from the FDP. Among the positions will include Green co-leader Robert Habeck as Vice Chancellor, Green co-leader Annalena Baerbock as foreign minister, and FDP leader Christian Lindner as finance minister. Running through yesterday’s data, the US trade deficit narrowed to $67.1bn in October (vs. $66.8bn expected), marking its smallest level since April. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, the latest Q3 growth estimate was left unchanged at +2.2%, but both Q1 and Q2’s growth was revised up a tenth. Over in Germany, industrial production grew by a stronger-than-expected +2.8% in October (vs. +1.0% expected), with the previous month’s contraction also revised to show a smaller -0.5% decline. In addition, the expectations component of the December ZEW survey fell by less than expected to 29.9 (vs. 25.4 expected), but the current situation measure fell to a 6-month low of -7.4 (vs. 5.7 expected). To the day ahead now, and Olaf Scholz is expected to become German Chancellor in a Bundestag vote today. From central banks, the Bank of Canada will be deciding on rates, and we’ll also hear from ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Schnabel. Finally, data releases include the JOLTS job openings from the US for October. Tyler Durden Wed, 12/08/2021 - 07:58.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 8th, 2021

Futures Surge After Powell-Driven Rout Proves To Be "Transitory"

Futures Surge After Powell-Driven Rout Proves To Be "Transitory" Heading into yesterday's painful close to one of the ugliest months since March 2020, which saw a huge forced liquidation rebalance with more than $8 billion in Market on Close orders, we said that while we are seeing "forced selling dump into the close today" this would be followed by "forced Dec 1 buying frontrunning after the close." Forced selling dump into the close today. Forced Dec 1 buying frontrunning after the close — zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 30, 2021 And just as expected, despite yesterday's dramatic hawkish pivot by Powell, who said it was time to retire the word transitory in describing the inflation outlook (the same word the Fed used hundreds of times earlier in 2021 sparking relentless mockery from this website for being clueless as usual) while also saying the U.S. central bank would consider bringing forward plans for tapering its bond buying program at its next meeting in two weeks, the frontrunning of new monthly inflows is in full force with S&P futures rising over 1.2%, Nasdaq futures up 1.3%, and Dow futures up 0.9%, recovering almost all of Tuesday’s decline. The seemingly 'hawkish' comments served as a double whammy for markets, which were already nervous about the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant and its potential to hinder a global economic recovery. "At this point, COVID does not appear to be the biggest long-term Street fear, although it could have the largest impact if the new (or next) variant turns out to be worse than expected," Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for S&P and Dow Jones indices, said in a note. "That honor goes to inflation, which continues to be fed by supply shortages, labor costs, worker shortages, as well as consumers, who have not pulled back." However, new month fund flows proved too powerful to sustain yesterday's month-end dump and with futures rising - and panic receding - safe havens were sold and the 10-year Treasury yield jumped almost 6bps, approaching 1.50%. The gap between yields on 5-year and 30-year Treasuries was around the narrowest since March last year. Crude oil and commodity-linked currencies rebounded. Gold remained just under $1,800 and bitcoin traded just over $57,000. There was more good news on the covid front with a WHO official saying some of the early indications are that most Omicron cases are mild with no severe cases. Separately Merck gained 3.8% in premarket trade after a panel of advisers to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration narrowly voted to recommend the agency authorize the drugmaker's antiviral pill to treat COVID-19. Travel and leisure stocks also rebounded, with cruiseliners Norwegian, Carnival, Royal Caribbean rising more than 2.5% each. Easing of covid fears also pushed airlines and travel stocks higher in premarket trading: Southwest +2.9%, Delta +2.5%, Spirit +2.3%, American +2.2%, United +1.9%, JetBlue +1.3%. Vaccine makers traded modestly lower in pre-market trading after soaring in recent days as Wall Street weighs the widening spread of the omicron variant. Merck & Co. bucked the trend after its Covid-19 pill narrowly gained a key recommendation from advisers to U.S. regulators. Moderna slips 2.1%, BioNTech dips 1.3% and Pfizer is down 0.2%. Elsewhere, Occidental Petroleum led gains among the energy stocks, up 3.2% as oil prices climbed over 4% ahead of OPEC's meeting. Shares of major Wall Street lenders also moved higher after steep falls on Tuesday. Here are some of the other biggest U.S. movers today: Salesforce (CRM US) drops 5.9% in premarket trading after results and guidance missed estimates, with analysts highlighting currency-related headwinds and plateauing growth at the MuleSoft integration software business. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE US) falls 1.3% in premarket after the computer equipment maker’s quarterly results showed the impact of the global supply chain crunch. Analysts noted solid order trends. Merck (MRK US) shares rise 5.8% in premarket after the company’s Covid-19 pill narrowly wins backing from FDA advisers, which analysts say is a sign of progress despite lingering challenges. Chinese electric vehicle makers were higher in premarket, leading U.S. peers up, after Nio, Li and XPeng reported strong deliveries for November; Nio (NIO US) +4%, Li (LI US ) +6%, XPeng (XPEV US) +4.3%. Ardelyx (ARDX US) shares gain as much as 34% in premarket, extending the biotech’s bounce after announcing plans to launch its irritable bowel syndrome treatment Ibsrela in the second quarter. CTI BioPharma (CTIC US) shares sink 18% in premarket after the company said the FDA extended the review period for a new drug application for pacritinib. Allbirds (BIRD US) fell 7.5% postmarket after the low end of the shoe retailer’s 2021 revenue forecast missed the average analyst estimate. Zscaler (ZS US) posted “yet another impressive quarter,” according to BMO. Several analysts increased their price targets for the security software company. Shares rose 4.6% in postmarket. Ambarella (AMBA US) rose 14% in postmarket after forecasting revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Emcore (EMKR US) fell 9% postmarket after the aerospace and communications supplier reported fiscal fourth-quarter Ebitda that missed the average analyst estimate. Box (BOX US) shares gained as much as 10% in postmarket trading after the cloud company raised its revenue forecast for the full year. Meanwhile, the omicron variant continues to spread around the globe, though symptoms so far appear to be relatively mild. The Biden administration plans to tighten rules on travel to the U.S., and Japan said it would bar foreign residents returning from 10 southern African nations. As Bloomberg notes, volatility is buffeting markets as investors scrutinize whether the pandemic recovery can weather diminishing monetary policy support and potential risks from the omicron virus variant. Global manufacturing activity stabilized last month, purchasing managers’ gauges showed Wednesday, and while central banks are scaling back ultra-loose settings, financial conditions remain favorable in key economies. “The reality is hotter inflation coupled with a strong economic backdrop could end the Fed’s bond buying program as early as the first quarter of next year,” Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management, said in emailed comments. “With potential changes in policy on the horizon, market participants should expect additional market volatility in this uncharted territory.” Looking ahead, Powell is back on the Hill for day 2, and is due to testify before a House Financial Services Committee hybrid hearing at 10 a.m. ET. On the economic data front, November readings on U.S. private payrolls and manufacturing activity will be closely watched later in the day to gauge the health of the American economy. Investors are also awaiting the Fed's latest "Beige Book" due at 2:00 p.m. ET. On the economic data front, November readings on U.S. private payrolls and manufacturing activity will be closely watched later in the day to gauge the health of the American economy. European equities soared more than 1.2%, with travel stocks and carmakers leading broad-based gain in the Stoxx Europe 600 index, all but wiping out Tuesday’s decline that capped only the third monthly loss for the benchmark this year.  Travel, miners and autos are the strongest sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Proximus shares rise as much as 6.5% after the company said it’s started preliminary talks regarding a potential deal involving TeleSign, with a SPAC merger among options under consideration. Dr. Martens gains as much as 4.6% to the highest since Sept. 8 after being upgraded to overweight from equal- weight at Barclays, which says the stock’s de-rating is overdone. Husqvarna advances as much as 5.3% after the company upgraded financial targets ahead of its capital markets day, including raising the profit margin target to 13% from 10%. Wizz Air, Lufthansa and other travel shares were among the biggest gainers as the sector rebounded after Tuesday’s losses; at a conference Wizz Air’s CEO reiterated expansion plans. Wizz Air gains as much as 7.5%, Lufthansa as much as 6.8% Elis, Accor and other stocks in the French travel and hospitality sector also rise after the country’s government pledged to support an industry that’s starting to get hit by the latest Covid-19 wave. Pendragon climbs as much as 6.5% after the car dealer boosted its outlook after the company said a supply crunch in the new vehicle market wasn’t as bad as it had anticipated. UniCredit rises as much as 3.6%, outperforming the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, after Deutsche Bank added the stock to its “top picks” list alongside UBS, and Bank of Ireland, Erste, Lloyds and Societe Generale. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also soared, snapping a three-day losing streak, led by energy and technology shares, as traders assessed the potential impact from the omicron coronavirus variant and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish pivot. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.3% Wednesday. South Korea led regional gains after reporting strong export figures, which bolsters growth prospects despite record domestic Covid-19 cases. Hong Kong stocks also bounced back after falling Tuesday to their lowest level since September 2020. Asia’s stock benchmark rebounded from a one-year low, though sentiment remained clouded by lingering concerns on the omicron strain and Fed’s potentially faster tapering pace. Powell earlier hinted that the U.S. central bank will accelerate its asset purchases at its meeting later this month.  “A faster taper in the U.S. is still dependent on omicron not causing a big setback to the outlook in the next few weeks,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital, adding that he expects the Fed’s policy rate “will still be low through next year, which should still enable good global growth which will benefit Asia.” Chinese equities edged up after the latest economic data showed manufacturing activity remained at relatively weak levels in November, missing economists’ expectations. Earlier, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said he’s fully confident in the nation’s economic growth in 2022 Japanese stocks rose, overcoming early volatility as traders parsed hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Electronics and auto makers were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which closed 0.4% higher after swinging between a gain of 0.9% and loss of 0.7% in the morning session. Daikin and Fanuc were the largest contributors to a 0.4% rise in the Nikkei 225, which similarly fluctuated. The Topix had dropped 4.8% over the previous three sessions due to concerns over the omicron virus variant. The benchmark fell 3.6% in November, its worst month since July 2020. “The market’s tolerance to risk is quite low at the moment, with people responding in a big way to the smallest bit of negative news,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management in Tokyo. “But the decline in Japanese equities was far worse than those of other developed markets, so today’s market may find a bit of calm.” U.S. shares tumbled Tuesday after Powell said officials should weigh removing pandemic support at a faster pace and retired the word “transitory” to describe stubbornly high inflation In rates, bonds trade heavy, as yield curves bear-flatten. Treasuries extended declines with belly of the curve cheapening vs wings as traders continue to price in additional rate-hike premium over the next two years. Treasury yields were cheaper by up to 5bp across belly of the curve, cheapening 2s5s30s spread by ~5.5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 1.48%, cheaper by ~4bp, while gilts lag by additional 2bp in the sector. The short-end of the gilt curve markedly underperforms bunds and Treasuries with 2y yields rising ~11bps near 0.568%. Peripheral spreads widen with belly of the Italian curve lagging. The flattening Treasury yield curve “doesn’t suggest imminent doom for the equity market in and of itself,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., said on Bloomberg Television. “Alarm bells go off in terms of recession” when the curve gets closer to inverting, she said. In FX, the Turkish lira had a wild session, offered in early London trade before fading. USD/TRY dropped sharply to lows of 12.4267 on reports of central bank FX intervention due to “unhealthy price formations” before, once again, fading TRY strength after comments from Erdogan. The rest of G-10 FX is choppy; commodity currencies retain Asia’s bid tone, havens are sold: the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inched lower, as the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers. The euro moved in a narrow range and Bund yields followed U.S. yields higher. The pound advanced as risk sentiment stabilized with focus still on news about the omicron variant. The U.K. 10-, 30-year curve flirted with inversion as gilts flattened, with money markets betting on 10bps of BOE tightening this month for the first time since Friday. The Australian and New Zealand dollars advanced as rising commodity prices fuel demand from exporters and leveraged funds. Better-than-expected growth data also aided the Aussie, with GDP expanding by 3.9% in the third quarter from a year earlier, beating the 3% estimated by economists. Austrian lawmakers extended a nationwide lockdown for a second 10-day period to suppress the latest wave of coronavirus infections before the Christmas holiday period.  The yen declined by the most among the Group-of-10 currencies as Powell’s comments renewed focus on yield differentials. 10-year yields rose ahead of Thursday’s debt auction In commodities, crude futures rally. WTI adds over 4% to trade on a $69-handle, Brent recovers near $72.40 after Goldman said overnight that oil had gotten extremely oversold. Spot gold fades a pop higher to trade near $1,785/oz. Base metals trade well with LME copper and nickel outperforming. Looking at the day ahead, once again we’ll have Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen appearing, this time before the House Financial Services Committee. In addition to that, the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book, and BoE Governor Bailey is also speaking. On the data front, the main release will be the manufacturing PMIs from around the world, but there’s also the ADP’s report of private payrolls for November in the US, the ISM manufacturing reading in the US as well for November, and German retail sales for October. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.2% to 4,620.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.0% to 467.58 MXAP up 0.9% to 191.52 MXAPJ up 1.1% to 626.09 Nikkei up 0.4% to 27,935.62 Topix up 0.4% to 1,936.74 Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 23,658.92 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,576.89 Sensex up 1.0% to 57,656.51 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,235.85 Kospi up 2.1% to 2,899.72 Brent Futures up 4.2% to $72.15/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,778.93 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.98 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.31% Euro down 0.1% to $1.1326 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Thursday, the first direct contact between officials of the two countries in weeks as tensions grow amid western fears Russia may be planning to invade Ukraine Oil rebounded from a sharp drop on speculation that recent deep losses were excessive and OPEC+ may on Thursday decide to pause hikes in production, with the abrupt reversal fanning already- elevated volatility The EU is set to recommend that member states review essential travel restrictions on a daily basis in the wake of the omicron variant, according to a draft EU document seen by Bloomberg China is planning to ban companies from going public on foreign stock markets through variable interest entities, according to people familiar with the matter, closing a loophole long used by the country’s technology industry to raise capital from overseas investors Manufacturing activity in Asia outside China stabilized last month amid easing lockdown and border restrictions, setting the sector on course to face a possible new challenge from the omicron variant of the coronavirus Germany urgently needs stricter measures to check a surge in Covid-19 infections and protect hospitals from a “particularly dangerous situation,” according to the head of the country’s DIVI intensive-care medicine lobby. A more detailed breakdown of global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mostly positive as regional bourses atoned for the prior day’s losses that were triggered by Omicron concerns, but with some of the momentum tempered by recent comments from Fed Chair Powell and mixed data releases including the miss on Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was led lower by underperformance in consumer stocks and with utilities also pressured as reports noted that Shell and Telstra’s entrance in the domestic electricity market is set to ignite fierce competition and force existing players to overhaul their operations, although the losses in the index were cushioned following the latest GDP data which showed a narrower than feared quarterly contraction in Australia’s economy. Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) was on the mend after yesterday’s sell-off with the index helped by favourable currency flows and following a jump in company profits for Q3, while the KOSPI (+2.1%) was also boosted by strong trade data. Hang Seng (+0.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) were somewhat varied as a tech resurgence in Hong Kong overcompensated for the continued weakness in casinos stocks amid ongoing SunCity woes which closed all VIP gaming rooms in Macau after its Chairman's recent arrest, while the mood in the mainland was more reserved after a PBoC liquidity drain and disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data which fell short of estimates and slipped back into contraction territory. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid the gains in Japanese stocks and after the pullback in global fixed income peers in the aftermath of Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish comments, while a lack of BoJ purchases further contributed to the subdued demand for JGBs. Top Asian News Asia Stocks Bounce Back from One-Year Low Despite Looming Risks Gold Swings on Omicron’s Widening Spread, Inflation Worries Shell Sees Hedge Funds Moving to LNG, Supporting Higher Prices Abe Warns China Invading Taiwan Would Be ‘Economic Suicide’ Bourses in Europe are firmer across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.6%; Stoxx 600 +1.1%) as the positive APAC sentiment reverberated into European markets. US equity futures are also on the front foot with the cyclical RTY (+2.0%) outpacing its peers: ES (+1.2%), NQ (+1.5%), YM (+0.8%). COVID remains a central theme for the time being as the Omicron variant is observed for any effects of concern – which thus far have not been reported. Analysts at UBS expect market focus to shift away from the variant and more towards growth and earnings. The analysts expect Omicron to fuse into the ongoing Delta outbreak that economies have already been tackling. Under this scenario, the desk expects some of the more cyclical markets and sectors to outperform. The desk also flags two tails risks, including an evasive variant and central bank tightening – particularly after Fed chair Powell’s commentary yesterday. Meanwhile, BofA looks for an over-10% fall in European stocks next year. Sticking with macro updates, the OECD, in their latest economic outlook, cut US, China, Eurozone growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022, with Omicron cited as a factor. Back to trade, broad-based gains are seen across European cash markets. Sectors hold a clear cyclical bias which consists of Travel & Leisure, Basic Resources, Autos, Retail and Oil & Gas as the top performers – with the former bolstered by the seemingly low appetite for coordination on restrictions and measures at an EU level – Deutsche Lufthansa (+6%) and IAG (+5.1%) now reside at the top of the Stoxx 600. The other side of the spectrum sees the defensive sectors – with Healthcare, Household Goods, Food & Beverages as the straddlers. In terms of induvial movers, German-listed Adler Group (+22%) following a divestment, whilst Blue Prism (+1.7%) is firmer after SS&C raised its offer for the Co. Top European News Wizz Says Travelers Are Booking at Shorter and Shorter Notice Turkey Central Bank Intervenes in FX Markets to Stabilize Lira Gold Swings on Omicron’s Widening Spread, Inflation Worries Former ABG Sundal Collier Partner Starts Advisory Firm In FX, the Dollar remains mixed against majors, but well off highs prompted by Fed chair Powell ditching transitory from the list of adjectives used to describe inflation and flagging that a faster pace of tapering will be on the agenda at December’s FOMC. However, the index is keeping tabs on the 96.000 handle and has retrenched into a tighter 95.774-96.138 range, for the time being, as trade remains very choppy and volatility elevated awaiting clearer medical data and analysis on Omicron to gauge its impact compared to the Delta strain and earlier COVID-19 variants. In the interim, US macro fundamentals might have some bearing, but the bar is high before NFP on Friday unless ADP or ISM really deviate from consensus or outside the forecast range. Instead, Fed chair Powell part II may be more pivotal if he opts to manage hawkish market expectations, while the Beige Book prepared for next month’s policy meeting could also add some additional insight. NZD/AUD/CAD/GBP - Broad risk sentiment continues to swing from side to side, and currently back in favour of the high beta, commodity and cyclical types, so the Kiwi has bounced firmly from worst levels on Tuesday ahead of NZ terms of trade, the Aussie has pared a chunk of its declines with some assistance from a smaller than anticipated GDP contraction and the Loonie is licking wounds alongside WTI in advance of Canadian building permits and Markit’s manufacturing PMI. Similarly, Sterling has regained some poise irrespective of relatively dovish remarks from BoE’s Mann and a slender downward revision to the final UK manufacturing PMI. Nzd/Usd is firmly back above 0.6800, Aud/Usd close to 0.7150 again, Usd/Cad straddling 1.2750 and Cable hovering on the 1.3300 handle compared to circa 0.6772, 0.7063, 1.2837 and 1.3195 respectively at various fairly adjacent stages yesterday. JPY/EUR/CHF - All undermined by the aforementioned latest upturn in risk appetite or less angst about coronavirus contagion, albeit to varying degrees, as the Yen retreats to retest support sub-113.50, Euro treads water above 1.1300 and Franc straddles 0.9200 after firmer than forecast Swiss CPI data vs a dip in the manufacturing PMI. In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are recovering following yesterday’s COVID and Powell-induced declines in the run-up to the OPEC meetings later today. The complex has also been underpinned by the reduced prospects of coordinated EU-wide restrictions, as per the abandonment of the COVID video conference between EU leaders. However, OPEC+ will take centre stage over the next couple of days, with a deluge of source reports likely as OPEC tests the waters. The case for OPEC+ to pause the planned monthly relaxation of output curbs by 400k BPD has been strengthening. There have been major supply and demand developments since the prior meeting. The recent emergence of the Omicron COVID variant and coordinated release of oil reserves have shifted the balance of expectations relative to earlier in the month (full Newsquawk preview available in the Research Suite). In terms of the schedule, the OPEC meeting is slated for 13:00GMT/08:00EST followed by the JTC meeting at 15:00GMT/10:00EST, whilst tomorrow sees the JMMC meeting at 12:00GMT/07:00EST; OPEC+ meeting at 13:00GMT/08:00EST. WTI Jan has reclaimed a USD 69/bbl handle (vs USD 66.20/bbl low) while Brent Feb hovers around USD 72.50/bbl (vs low USD 69.38/bbl) at the time of writing. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver trade with modest gains and largely in tandem with the Buck. Spot gold failed to sustain gains above the cluster of DMAs under USD 1,800/oz (100 DMA at USD 1,792/oz, 200 DMA at USD 1,791/oz, and 50 DMA at USD 1,790/oz) – trader should be aware of the potential for a technical Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA). Turning to base metals, copper is supported by the overall risk appetite, with the LME contract back above USD 9,500/t. Overnight, Chinese coking coal and coke futures rose over 5% apiece, with traders citing disrupted supply from Mongolia amid the COVID outbreak in the region. US Event Calendar 7am: Nov. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.8% 8:15am: Nov. ADP Employment Change, est. 525,000, prior 571,000 9:45am: Nov. Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 59.1, prior 59.1 10am: Oct. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.4%, prior -0.5% 10am: Nov. ISM Manufacturing, est. 61.2, prior 60.8 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Nov. Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 13.4m, prior 13m Central Banks 10am: Powell, Yellen Testify Before House Panel on CARES Act Relief DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap If you’re under 10 and reading this there’s a spoiler alert today in this first para so please skip beyond and onto the second. Yes my heart broke a little last night as my little 6-year old Maisie said to me at bedtime that “Santa isn’t real is he Daddy?”. I lied (I think it’s a lie) and said yes he was. I made up an elaborate story about how when we renovated our 100 year old house we deliberately kept the chimney purely to let Santa come down it once a year. Otherwise why would we have kept it? She then asked what about her friend who lives in a flat? I tried to bluff my way through it but maybe my answer sounded a bit like my answers as to what will happen with Omicron. I’ll test both out on clients later to see which is more convincing. Before we get to the latest on the virus, given it’s the start of the month, we’ll shortly be publishing our November performance review looking at how different assets fared over the month just gone and YTD. It arrived late on but Omicron was obviously the dominant story and led to some of the biggest swings of the year so far. It meant that oil (which is still the top performer on a YTD basis) was the worst performer in our monthly sample, with WTI and Brent seeing their worst monthly performances since the initial wave of market turmoil over Covid back in March 2020. And at the other end, sovereign bonds outperformed in November as Omicron’s emergence saw investors push back the likelihood of imminent rate hikes from central banks. So what was shaping up to be a good month for risk and a bad one for bonds flipped around in injury time. Watch out for the report soon from Henry. Back to yesterday now, and frankly the main takeaway was that markets were desperate for any piece of news they could get their hands on about the Omicron variant, particularly given the lack of proper hard data at the moment. The morning started with a sharp selloff as we discussed at the top yesterday, as some of the more optimistic noises from Monday were outweighed by that FT interview, whereby Moderna’s chief executive had said that the existing vaccines wouldn’t be as effective against the new variant. Then we had some further negative news from Regeneron, who said that analysis and modelling of the Omicron mutations indicated that its antibody drug may not be as effective, but that they were doing further analysis to confirm this. However, we later got some comments from a University of Oxford spokesperson, who said that there wasn’t any evidence so far that vaccinations wouldn’t provide high levels of protection against severe disease, which coincided with a shift in sentiment early in the European afternoon as equities begun to pare back their losses. The CEO of BioNTech and the Israeli health minister expressed similar sentiments, noting that vaccines were still likely to protect against severe disease even among those infected by Omicron, joining other officials encouraging people to get vaccinated or get booster shots. Another reassuring sign came in an update from the EU’s ECDC yesterday, who said that all of the 44 confirmed cases where information was available on severity “were either asymptomatic or had mild symptoms.” After the close, the FDA endorsed Merck’s antiviral Covid pill. While it’s not clear how the pill interacts with Omicron, the proliferation of more Covid treatments is still good news as we head into another winter. The other big piece of news came from Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, where the main headline was his tapering comment that “It is appropriate to consider wrapping up a few months sooner.” So that would indicate an acceleration in the pace, which would be consistent with the view from our US economists that we’ll see a doubling in the pace of reductions at the December meeting that’s only two weeks from today. The Fed Chair made a forceful case for a faster taper despite lingering Omicron uncertainties, noting inflation is likely to stay elevated, the labour market has improved without a commensurate increase in labour supply (those sidelined because of Covid are likely to stay there), spending has remained strong, and that tapering was a removal of accommodation (which the economy doesn’t need more of given the first three points). Powell took pains to stress the risk of higher inflation, going so far as to ‘retire’ the use of the term ‘transitory’ when describing the current inflation outlook. So team transitory have seemingly had the pitch taken away from them mid match. The Chair left an exit clause that this outlook would be informed by incoming inflation, employment, and Omicron data before the December FOMC meeting. A faster taper ostensibly opens the door to earlier rate hikes and Powell’s comment led to a sharp move higher in shorter-dated Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield up +8.1bps on the day, having actually been more than -4bps lower when Powell began speaking. They were as low as 0.44% then and got as high as 0.57% before closing at 0.56%. 2yr yields have taken another leg higher overnight, increasing +2.5bps to 0.592%. Long-end yields moved lower though and failed to back up the early day moves even after Powell, leading to a major flattening in the yield curve on the back of those remarks, with the 2s10s down -13.7bps to 87.3bps, which is its flattest level since early January. Overnight 10yr yields are back up +3bps but the curve is only a touch steeper. My 2 cents on the yield curve are that the 2s10s continues to be my favourite US recession indicator. It’s worked over more cycles through history than any other. No recession since the early 1950s has occurred without the 2s10s inverting. But it takes on average 12-18 months from inversion to recession. The shortest was the covid recession at around 7 months which clearly doesn’t count but I think we were very late cycle in early 2020 and the probability of recession in the not too distant future was quite high but we will never know.The shortest outside of that was around 9 months. So with the curve still at c.+90bps we are moving in a more worrying direction but I would still say 2023-24 is the very earliest a recession is likely to occur (outside of a unexpected shock) and we’ll need a rapid flattening in 22 to encourage that. History also suggests markets tend to ignore the YC until it’s too late. So I wouldn’t base my market views in 22 on the yield curve and recession signal yet. However its something to look at as the Fed seemingly embarks on a tightening cycle in the months ahead. Onto markets and those remarks from Powell (along with the additional earlier pessimism about Omicron) proved incredibly unhelpful for equities yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-1.90%) giving up the previous day’s gains to close at its lowest level in over a month. It’s hard to overstate how broad-based this decline was, as just 7 companies in the entire S&P moved higher yesterday, which is the lowest number of the entire year so far and the lowest since June 11th, 2020, when 1 company ended in the green. Over in Europe it was much the same story, although they were relatively less affected by Powell’s remarks, and the STOXX 600 (-0.92%) moved lower on the day as well. Overnight in Asia, stocks are trading higher though with the KOSPI (+2.02%), Hang Seng (+1.40%), the Nikkei (+0.37%), Shanghai Composite (+0.11%) and CSI (+0.09%) all in the green. Australia’s Q3 GDP contracted (-1.9% qoq) less than -2.7% consensus while India’s Q3 GDP grew at a firm +8.4% year-on-year beating the +8.3% consensus. In China the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November came in at 49.9 against a 50.6 consensus. Futures markets are indicating a positive start to markets in US & Europe with the S&P 500 (+0.73%) and DAX (+0.44%) trading higher again. Back in Europe, there was a significant inflation story amidst the other headlines above, since Euro Area inflation rose to its highest level since the creation of the single currency, with the flash estimate for November up to +4.9% (vs. +4.5% expected). That exceeded every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg, and core inflation also surpassed expectations at +2.6% (vs. +2.3% expected), again surpassing the all-time high since the single currency began. That’s only going to add to the pressure on the ECB, and yesterday saw Germany’s incoming Chancellor Scholz say that “we have to do something” if inflation doesn’t ease. European sovereign bonds rallied in spite of the inflation reading, with those on 10yr bunds (-3.1bps), OATs (-3.5bps) and BTPs (-0.9bps) all moving lower. Peripheral spreads widened once again though, and the gap between Italian and German 10yr yields closed at its highest level in just over a year. Meanwhile governments continued to move towards further action as the Omicron variant spreads, and Greece said that vaccinations would be mandatory for everyone over 60 soon, with those refusing having to pay a monthly €100 fine. Separately in Germany, incoming Chancellor Scholz said that there would be a parliamentary vote on the question of compulsory vaccinations, saying to the Bild newspaper in an interview that “My recommendation is that we don’t do this as a government, because it’s an issue of conscience”. In terms of other data yesterday, German unemployment fell by -34k in November (vs. -25k expected). Separately, the November CPI readings from France at +3.4% (vs. +3.2% expected) and Italy at +4.0% (vs. +3.3% expected) surprised to the upside as well. In the US, however, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure in November fell to its lowest since February at 109.5 (vs. 110.9 expected), and the MNI Chicago PMI for November fell to 61.8 9vs. 67.0 expected). To the day ahead now, and once again we’ll have Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen appearing, this time before the House Financial Services Committee. In addition to that, the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book, and BoE Governor Bailey is also speaking. On the data front, the main release will be the manufacturing PMIs from around the world, but there’s also the ADP’s report of private payrolls for November in the US, the ISM manufacturing reading in the US as well for November, and German retail sales for October. Tyler Durden Wed, 12/01/2021 - 07:47.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 1st, 2021

Black Friday Turns Red On "Terrible News" - Global Markets Crater On "Nu Variant" Panic

Black Friday Turns Red On "Terrible News" - Global Markets Crater On "Nu Variant" Panic The Friday after thanksgiving is called black Friday because that's when retailers finally turn profitable for the year. Not so much for market, however, because this morning it's red as far as the eye can see. The culprit: the same one we discussed late last night - the emergence of a new coronavirus strain detected in South Africa, known as B.1.1.529, which reportedly carries an "extremely high number" of mutations and is “clearly very different” from previous incarnations, which may drive further waves of disease by evading the body’s defenses according to South African scientists, and soon, Anthony Fauci. British authorities think it is the most significant variant to date and have hurried to impose travel restrictions on southern Africa, as did Japan, the Czech Republic and Italy on Friday. The European Union also said it aimed to halt air travel from the region. "Markets have been quite complacent about the pandemic for a while, partly because economies have been able to withstand the impact of selective lockdown measures. But we can see from the new emergency brakes on air travel that there will be ramifications for the price of oil," said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa. As a result, what was initially just a 1% drop in US index futures, has since escalated to a plunge of as much as 2% with eminis dropping the most since September, at one point dropping below 4,600 after closing on Wednesday above 4,700 as a post-Thanksgiving selloff spread across global markets amid mounting concerns the new B.1.1.529 coronavirus variant - which today will be officially called by the Greek lettter Nu - could derail the global economic recovery.  Russell 2000 contracts sank as much as 5.4%. Technology shares may be caught in the net too as Nasdaq 100 futures slid. The VIX increased as much as 9.4 vols to 28, it's biggest jump since January. It was last seen up 7.4 points, or the biggest increase since February. Adding to the pain, there is nothing on today's macro calendar and the US market closes early which will reduce already dismal liquidity even more, exacerbating some of the moves throughout the session. Headlines are likely to center on various nations preventing travel from South Africa whilst potentially imposing more stringent COVID measures domestically, as well as which countries "find" the Nu variant. Amid the panicked flight to safety, 10Y TSY yields tumbled as traders slashed bets on monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (just hours after Goldman predicted that the Fed would double the pace of its taper and hike 3 times in 2022, oops) ... ... as did oil amid fears new covid lockdowns will lead to a collapse in crude demand (they will also certainly force OPEC+ to put on pause their plans to keep hiking output by 400K every month). Paradoxically, even cryptos are tumbling, which is surprising since even the dumbest algos should realize by now that a new covid outbreak means more dovish central banks, no tightening, and if nothing else, more QE and more liquidity which is precisely what cryptos need to break out to new all time highs. Cruise ship operator Carnival slumped 9.1% in premarket trading and Boeing slid 5.8% as travel companies tumbled worldwide. Stay-at-home stocks such as Zoom Video rallied.  Didi Global shares fell after Chinese regulators reportedly asked the ride-hailing giant to delist from U.S. bourses. Here are some of the other big premarket movers: Airlines and other travel stocks slumped in premarket trading on growing concern about a new Covid-19 variant identified in southern Africa. The European Union is proposing to halt air travel from several countries in the area and the U.K. will temporarily ban flights from the region. United Airlines (UAL US) fell 8.9%, Delta Air (DAL US) -7.9%, American Airlines (AAL US) -6.7%; cruiseline-operator Carnival (CCL US) -12%; hotelier Marriott (MAR US) -6.1%; lodging company Airbnb (ABNB US) -6.9%. Stay-at-home stocks that benefit from higher demand in lockdowns rose in premarket, with Zoom Video (ZM US) gaining 8.5% and fitness equipment group Peloton (PTON US) +4.7%. Vaccine stocks surged in premarket, while Pfizer and BioNTech got an added boost after their coronavirus shot won European Union backing for expanded use in children. Moderna (MRNA US) rose 8.8%, Novavax (NVAX US) +6.2%, Pfizer (PFE US) +5.1%, BioNTech (BNTX US) +6.4%. Small biotech stocks gained in premarket as investors sought havens. Ocugen (OCGN US) added 22%, Vir Biotechnology (VIR US) +7.8%, Sorrento Therapeutics (SRNE US) +5%. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fell as Bitcoin dropped as investors dumped risk assets. Marathon Digital (MARA US) declined 9%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) -8.8%, Coinbase (COIN US) -4.6%. Didi Global (DIDI US) declined 6% in premarket after Chinese regulators were said to have asked the ride-hailing giant to delist from U.S. bourses. Selecta Biosciences (SELB US) dropped 13% in Wednesday’s postmarket ahead of Thursday’s Thanksgiving closure, after saying the U.S. FDA placed a clinical hold on a trial. Quotient Technology (QUOT US) gained 3.9% in Wednesday’s postmarket on news that a board member bought $150,000 of shares. What happens next will matter and so, all eyes are on the opening bell for the U.S. markets, set to return from the holiday for a shortened trading session. Tumbling futures and a soaring VIX signaled that the rout in Asia and Europe won’t spare New York equities, while lack of liquidity will only make the pain worse. The Japanese yen emerged as the main haven currency of the day, with the dollar languishing. “Every trader in New York will be rushing to the office now,” said Salm-Salm & Partner portfolio manager Frederik Hildner, adding that news of the new variant could mean the end of the inflation and tapering debate. The worsening pandemic poses a dilemma for central banks that are preparing to tighten monetary policy to curb elevated price pressures, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. “It’s terrible news,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, said in emailed comments. “The new Covid variant could hit the economic recovery, but this time, the central banks won’t have enough margin to act. They can’t fight inflation and boost growth at the same time. They have to choose.” “We now have a new Covid variant that’s ‘very’ different from the ones we knew so far, a rising inflation, and a market bubble,” she said.  “The only encouraging news is the easing oil prices, which could tame the inflationary pressures and give more time to the central banks before pulling back support.” In the meantime, the World Health Organization and scientists in South Africa were said to be working “at lightning speed” to ascertain how quickly the B.1.1.529 variant can spread and whether it’s resistant to vaccines. The new threat adds to the wall of worry investors are already contending with in the form of elevated inflation, monetary tightening and slowing growth. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index headed for the biggest drop in 13 months plunging 2.7%; travel and banking industries led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index down as much as 3.7%, the biggest intraday drop since June 2020. Airbus slumped 8.6% in Paris and British Airways owner IAG tumbled 12% in London, while food-delivery stocks gained.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Stay-at-home stocks and Covid testing firms such as TeamViewer and DiaSorin are among the biggest gainers as worries over a new Covid variant send the Stoxx 600 tumbling on lockdown fears TeamViewer and DiaSorin rise as much as 6% and 7%, respectively On the down side, travel and leisure stocks plunge, with the likes of IAG, Lufthansa and Carnival posting double- digit falls IAG drops as much as 21% Software AG shares rise as much as 9.5% after Bloomberg reported that the firm is exploring strategic options, including a potential sale, with Morgan Stanley saying the company’s biggest headwinds are behind it. Evolution gains as much as 4.6%, recouping part of Thursday’s 16% plunge, with Bank of America saying the share price’s “crazy time” amounts to a good buying opportunity. Skistar rises as much as 3.7%, bucking steep declines for travel and leisure stocks, after Handelsbanken upgraded the stock, saying bookings for the Scandinavian ski resort operator are “set to surge.” Telecom Italia climbs as much as 2.8% following a Bloomberg report that private equity firms KKR and CVC are considering teaming up on a bid for the company. ING Groep falls as much as 11% after Goldman Sachs analyst Jean-Francois Neuez cut his recommendation to neutral from buy. Getlink drops as much as 6% as French fishermen start protests aimed at stepping up pressure on the U.K. in a post-Brexit fishing dispute. Earlier in the session, MSCI's index of Asian shares outside Japan fell 2.2%, its sharpest drop since August. Casino and beverage shares were hammered in Hong Kong, while travel stocks dropped in Sydney and Tokyo. Japan's Nikkei skidded 2.5% and S&P 500 futures were last down 1.8%. Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM, a brokerage, said the closure of the U.S. market for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday had exacerbated moves. "We need to see how transmissible this variant is, is it able to evade the vaccines - this is crucial," Coghlan said. "I expect this story to drag on for a few days until scientists have a better understanding of it." Indian stocks plunged as the detection of a new coronavirus strain rattled investor sentiment globally, raising concerns over a likely setback to the nascent economic recovery.  The S&P BSE Sensex lost 2.9%, the most since mid-April, to 57,107.15 in Mumbai, taking its loss this week to 4.2%, the biggest weekly drop since January. The NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by a similar magnitude on Friday. Reliance Industries was the biggest drag on both measures and declined 3.2%.  “There is fear of this new variant spreading to other countries which might again derail the global economy,” said Hemang Jani, head of equity strategy at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.   Of the 30 shares in the Sensex index, 26 fell and 4 gained. All but one of 19 sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. retreated, led by a index of realty companies. The S&P BSE Healthcare index was the only sub-index to gain, surging 1.2%. While researchers are yet to determine whether the new virus variant is more transmissible or lethal than previous ones, authorities around the world have been quick to act. The European Union, U.K., Israel, and Singapore placed emergency curbs on passengers from South Africa and the surrounding region. Travel stocks were among the hardest hit. InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. fell 8.9%, Spicejet Ltd. slipped 6.7% and Indian Hotels Co. Ltd. plunged 11.2%, the most since March 2020.  “Nervousness on the new variant of coronavirus and expectations of the U.S. Fed increasing the pace of tapering have led to recent market weakness,” Amit Gupta, fund manager for portfolio management services at ICICI Securities Ltd. said. “This trend may take some time to recover as the WHO meeting on the new mutant variant impact and hospitalization rates in US and Europe will be watched by the market very closely.” Crude oil to emerging markets completed this picture of mayhem. In rates, fixed income was firmly bid as Treasuries extended their advance led by the belly of the curve, outperforming bunds, while money markets pared rate-hike bets amid fears that a new coronavirus strain may spread globally, slowing economic growth. Cash Treasuries outperformed, richening 12-14bps across the short end, with Thursday’s closure exacerbating the optics. As shown above, 10Y Treasury yields shed as much as 10 basis points while the Japanese yen jumped the most since investors’ March 2020 rush for safety. Yields across the curve are lower by more than 8bp at long end, 13bp-15bp out to the 7-year point, moves that if sustained would be the largest since at least March 2020 and in some cases since 2009. Short-term interest rate futures downgraded the odds of Fed rate increases. Gilts richened 10-11bps across the curve, outperforming bunds by 4-5bps. Peripheral and semi-core spreads widen. In FX, JPY and CHF top the G-10 scoreboard with havens typically bid. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after earlier touching a fresh cycle high, and the greenback was mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers as the yen and the Swiss franc led gains while the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone were the worst performers as commodity prices plunged. Traders pushed back the timing of a 25-basis-point rate increase by the Federal Reserve to July from June, with only one further hike expected for the remainder of 2022. It’s a similar story in the U.K. where the Bank of England is now expected to tighten policy in February instead of next month. Wagers that the ECB will raise its deposit rate by the end of next year have also been slashed, with only a six basis-point increase priced in, half of that seen earlier this week. The European Union is proposing to follow the U.K. in halting air travel from southern Africa after the new Covid-19 variant was identified there. The yen is at the epicenter of skyrocketing currency volatility as the new virus variant shakes markets. The cost of hedging against swings in the Japanese currency over the next week, which captures the release of the next U.S. payrolls report, is the most expensive in more than a year. In commodities, crude futures are hit hard. WTI drops over 7% before finding support near $73, Brent drops over 5% before recovering near $78. Spot gold grinds higher, adding $21 to trade near $1,809/oz. Base metals are sharply offered with much of the complex off as much as 3%. Looking at the otherwise quiet day ahead, data releases include French and Italian consumer confidence for November, as well as the Euro Area M3 money supply for October. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Visco, Schnabel, Centeno, Panetta and Lane, and BoE chief economist Pill. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 1.9% to 4,607.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 2.8% to 468.04 MXAP down 1.8% to 193.33 MXAPJ down 2.2% to 628.97 Nikkei down 2.5% to 28,751.62 Topix down 2.0% to 1,984.98 Hang Seng Index down 2.7% to 24,080.52 Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,564.09 Sensex down 2.7% to 57,234.83 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.7% to 7,279.35 Kospi down 1.5% to 2,936.44 Brent Futures down 5.8% to $77.46/bbl Gold spot up 0.9% to $1,805.13 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.33% to 96.46 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.31% Euro up 0.4% to $1.1259 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The European Union is proposing to halt air travel from southern Africa over growing concern about a new Covid-19 variant that’s spreading there, as the U.K. said it will also temporarily ban flights from the region Those close to the Kremlin say the Russian president doesn’t want to start another war in Ukraine. Still, he must show he’s ready to fight if necessary in order to stop what he sees as an existential security threat: the creeping expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in a country that for centuries had been part of Russia Bitcoin tumbled 20% from record highs notched earlier this month as a new variant of the coronavirus spurred traders to dump risk assets across the globe Germany’s Greens tapped their two co- leaders to run the foreign ministry and take charge of an influential portfolio overseeing economy and climate protection in the country’s next government under Social Democrat Olaf Scholz A more detailed breakdown of global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets declined and US equity futures were also on the backfoot on reopen from the prior day’s Thanksgiving lull with markets spooked by new COVID variant concerns related to the B.1.1.529 variant in South Africa that was first detected in Botswana. The new variant showed a high number of mutations and was said to be the most evolved strain ever which spurred fears it could be worse than Delta and is prompting both the UK and Israel to halt flights from several African nations. ASX 200 (-1.7%) was negative with heavy losses in energy and broad underperformance in cyclicals leading the downturn across all sectors, while the much better than expected Australian Retail Sales data was largely ignored. Nikkei 225 (-2.5%) underperformed and gave up the 29k status as selling was exacerbated by detrimental currency inflows and with SoftBank shares among the worst hit on reports that China is said to have asked Didi to delist from US exchanges on security fears, which doesn't bode well for SoftBank given that its Vision Fund is the top shareholder in the Chinese ride hailing group with a stake of more than 20%. Hang Seng (-2.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.7%) conformed to the risk aversion with the mood not helped by ongoing geopolitical concerns after a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson noted they are ready to crush Taiwan independence bid "at any time”, while China also said it opposes US sanctions on its companies and will take all necessary measures to firmly defend the rights of Chinese companies. Beijing interference further contributed to the headwinds amid the request by China for Didi to delist from US which reports stated regulators could backtrack on and with Tencent subdued after some Chinese state-run companies restricted the use of Tencent's messaging app. Top Asian News Stocks in Asia Set for Worst Day Since March on Virus Woes Mizuho CEO Steps Down After Regulator Hit on System Issues Meituan 3Q Revenue Meets Estimates Japan’s Kishida Delivers $316 billion Extra Budget for Recovery European equities are trading markedly lower (Stoxx 600 -2.9%) with losses in the Stoxx 600 extending to 3.8% WTD. Sentiment throughout the week has been hampered by various lockdown measures imposed across the region with the latest leg lower accelerated by new COVID variant concerns related to the B.1.1.529 variant in South Africa. The new variant has shown a high number of mutations and is said to be the most evolved strain so far. This has spurred fears it could be worse than Delta and has prompted multiple nations to halt flights from several African nations.The handover from the overnight session was an equally downbeat one with the Nikkei 225 (-2.5%) dealt a hammer blow by the risk environment and unfavourable currency flows. Stateside, futures are lower across the board with the RTY the clear laggard with losses of 4.2% compared to the ES -1.8%, whilst the tech-heavy NQ is faring better than peers but ultimately still lower on the session to the tune of 1.6%. Note, early closures in the US and subsequent liquidity conditions could exacerbate some of the moves throughout the session. With the macro calendar light, focus for the session is likely to centre on various nations preventing travel from South Africa whilst potentially imposing more stringent COVID measures domestically. Any further clarity on the spread of the variant and its potential to evade vaccines will be of great interest to the market and likely be the main driving force of price action today. Sectors in Europe are lower across the board with the Stoxx 600 Banking (-5.1%) sector bottom of the pile amid the declines seen in global bond yields as markets scale back expectations of central bank tightening (e.g. pricing now assigns a 63% chance of a 15bps hike by the BoE next month vs. 93% a week ago). Oil & Gas names (-4.8%) are suffering on account of the declines in the crude space with WTI crude in freefall with losses of 6.7% given the potential impact of travel restrictions on demand. Travel restrictions on South Africa (from UK, Israel, EU et al) and the potential for further announcements has crushed the Travel & Leisure sector (-5.7%) with airline names dealt a hammer blow; IAG (-13.5%), easyJet (-11%), Deutsche Lufthansa (-12%), Air France (-9.5%). Elsewhere, there are a whole raft of other laggards which are very much in-fitting with the March 2020 playbook but there are simply too many to list for the purpose of this report. Defensives and Tech are faring better than peers but ultimately still lower on the session to the tune of 1% and 1.9% respectively. Finally, for anyone wanting some positivity from today’s session, the potential for further lockdowns has proved to be beneficial for the likes of HelloFresh (+3.2%), Ocado (+2.1%) and Delivery Hero (+1.9%). Top European News Airlines Skid on South Africa Travel Bans Tied to Variant German Coalition Proposes a Combustion-Car Ban Without Saying So Putin Pushes Confrontation With NATO as Hardliners Prevail Siemens Is Said to Kick Off Sale of Postal Logistics Business In FX, the index has been under pressure in the risk-averse environment amid a slump in yields and gains in its basket components – namely the JPY, CHF, EUR (see below) – and with liquidity also thinned by Thanksgiving. From a technical perspective, the index has declined from its 96.787 overnight high, through the 96.500 mark, to a low of 96.332 – with the weekly trough at 96.035. Ahead, the US calendar is once again light, with the US also poised for an early Thanksgiving closure; thus, impulses will likely be derived from the macro environment. JPY, CHF, EUR - Haven FX JPY and CHF are the clear outperformers as a function of risk-related inflows. USD/JPY has retreated from a 115.37 peak and fell through its 21 DMA (114.15) to a base around 113.66 - with the current weekly low around 113.64. USD/CHF retreated from 0.9360 to 0.9260 – with the 50 and 100 DMAs seen at 0.9234 and 0.9219, respectively, ahead of 0.9200. EUR/USD meanwhile gains on what is seemingly an unwind of the carry trade amid a spike in volatility. EUR/USD found support near 1.1200 before rebounding to a current 1.1288 peak. AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP - The non-US Dollar risk currencies bear the brunt of the latest market downturn, with losses across industrial commodities not helping. The Loonie has taken the spot as the biggest G10 loser as hefty COVID-induced losses in the oil complex keep the currency suppressed. USD/CAD trades towards the top of a current 1.2647-2774 range. AUD is also weighed on by softer base metal prices – AUD/USD fell from a 0.7200 overnight high to a current low at 0.7110. On that note, Westpac sees AUD/USD pushed down to 0.7000 by Jun 2022 (prev. 0.7700) amid rate differentials with the US; Westpac made significant changes to its FOMC policy forecast and now expect consecutive increases in the fed funds rate in Jun, Sept, and Dec 2022. NZD/USD is slightly more cushioned amid smaller exposure to commodities, and as the AUD/NZD cross takes aim at 1.0450 to the downside. GBP, meanwhile, was initially among the losers amid its high-beta status but thereafter nursed losses in a move that coincided with EUR/GBP rejecting an upside breach of its 21 DMA at 0.8475. EM - The ZAR is the standout laggard given the new South African COVID variant - B.1.1.529 COVID-19 variant (expected to be named Nu) – which is said to be the most evolved strain so far and thus prompted several countries to halt travel to the country of origin. USD/ZAR currently trades within a 15.9375-16.3630 intraday band. Meanwhile, the downturn oil sees USD/RUB north of 75.00 and closer to 76.00 from a 74.2690 base. The Lira also feels some contagion despite the lower oil prices (Turkey being a large net oil importer) – USD/TRY is back on a 12.00 handle and within 11.92-1226 parameters at the time of writing. In commodities, the crude complex has been hit by compounding COVID fears which in turn triggered various travel restrictions and subsequently took its toll on global crude demand prospects. The new and more evolved South African variant prompted the UK, Singapore, and Israel to expand their travel red lists to include some African nations (Israel reported its first case of the new COVID-19 variant known as B.1.1.529). Japan also imposed tighter border restrictions. China’s Shanghai city see flights impacted by its own outbreak. Europe also tackles its surge in daily cases - German Green Party's Baerbock (incoming Foreign Minister) does not rule out a German lockdown, according to Spiegel. EU Commission President von der Leyen is also to propose activation of the emergency air brake, to halt travel from southern Africa due to the B.1.1.529 COVID-19 variant. Losses in oil have exacerbated - with WTI Jan and Brent Feb now under USD 74/bbl (vs high 78.65/bbl) and USD 77/bbl (vs high 80.42/bbl), -6.0% and -5.0% respectively. This comes ahead of the OPEC+ confab next week, whereby OPEC watchers have suggested that oil prices will be a large contributor to the final decision. It is difficult to see how OPEC+ will increase output to the levels the US et al. will be content with, with the latest COVID downturn building the case for a pause in planned output hikes. Elsewhere, haven demand sees spot gold extend on gains above USD 1,800/oz after topping the 100 DMA (1,792.95/oz), 200 DMA (1,791.38/oz), 50 DMA (1,790.13/oz) overnight. Base metals are softer across the board amid the risk aversion. LME copper posts losses of around 3% at the time of writing, as prices threaten a more convincing downside breach of USD 9,500/t. US Event Calendar Nothing major scheduled DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Things have escalated on the covid front quite rapidly over the last 12 hours. Yesterday new covid variant B.1.1.529 was slowly starting to gather increasing attention but overnight it has begun to dominate markets and has caused a notable flight to quality with 10 year USTs -8bps lower. It was originally identified in Botswana and is starting to spread rapidly in Africa. The South African Health Minister has said it is "of serious concern". Almost 100 cases have already been identified in South Africa and the UK moved to put the country back (along with 5 other African nations) on a reinstated red travel list last night with others following this morning. The variant is said to be the most heavily mutated version yet and the WHO will meet today to decide if it is a variant of interest or a variant of concern. So a lot of eyes will be on how severe it is and whether it completely evades vaccines. At this stage very little is known. Mutations are often less severe so we shouldn’t jump to conclusions but there is clearly a lot of concern about this one. Also South Africa is one of the world leaders in sequencing so we are more likely to see this sort of news originate from there than many countries. Suffice to say at this stage no one in markets will have any idea which way this will go. Overnight in Asia all benchmarks are trading lower on the news with the Shanghai Composite (-0.50%), CSI (-0.64%), KOSPI (-1.27%), Hang Seng (-2.13%) and the Nikkei (-2.90%) all lower. Airlines and other travel stocks have obviously fallen heavily. Hong Kong has detected two confirmed cases of the new variant just as Hong Kong and China were considering quarantine-free travel. S&P 500 (-0.93%) and DAX (-1.82%) futures are also much weaker. Elsewhere, in Japan, CPI rose +0.5% year-on-year (+0.4% consensus and +0.1% previously), on the back of 16-month high fuel prices. With the US out on holiday for Thanksgiving, there wasn’t much going on yesterday after a very quiet day in markets. The variant news was only slowly creeping into the news flow so it hardly impacted trading. But in keeping with the theme of recent days, both inflation and the latest covid wave in Europe remained very much in the picture as jitters continue to increase that we could see further lockdowns as we move towards Christmas. Starting with the headline moves, European equities did actually show signs of stabilising yesterday, with the STOXX 600 up +0.42% thanks to a broad-based advance across the continent. In fact that’s actually the index’s best daily performance in over three weeks, although that’s not reflecting any particular strength, but instead the fact the index inched steadily but persistently towards a record high before selling off again a week ago. Other indices moved higher across the continent too, with the FTSE 100 (+0.33%), the CAC 40 (+0.48%) and the DAX (+0.25%) all posting similar advances. These will all likely reverse this morning. One piece of news we did get came from the ECB, who released the account of their monetary policy meeting for October. Something the minutes stressed was the importance that the Governing Council maintain optionality in their policy settings, with one part acknowledging the growing upside risks to inflation, but also saying “it was deemed important for the Governing Council to avoid an overreaction as well as unwarranted inaction, and to keep sufficient optionality in calibrating its monetary policy measures to address all inflation scenarios that might unfold.” Against this backdrop, 10yr bond yields moved lower across multiple countries, with those on bunds (-2.3ps), OATs (-2.3bps) and BTPs (-1.9bps) all declining. There was also a flattening in all 3 yield curves as well, with the 2s10s slope in Germany (-3.0bps), France (-3.7bps) and Italy (-2.8bps) shifting lower. And the moves also coincided with a continued widening in peripheral spreads, with both the Spanish and the Greek spreads over 10yr bund yields widening to their biggest levels in over a year. Of course, one of the biggest concerns in Europe right now remains the pandemic, and yesterday saw a number of fresh measures announced as policymakers seek to get a grip on the latest wave. In France, health minister Veran announced various measures, including the expansion of the booster rollout to all adults, and a reduction in the length of time between the initial vaccination and the booster shot to 5 months from 6. Meanwhile in the Czech Republic, the government declared a state of emergency and approved tighter social distancing measures, including the closure of restaurants and bars at 10pm. And in Finland, the government have said that bars and restaurants not using Covid certificates will not be able to serve alcohol after 5pm. All this came as the European Medicines Agency recommended that the Pfizer vaccine be approved for children aged 5-11, which follows the decision to approve the vaccine in the US. Their recommendation will now go to the European Commission for a final decision. There wasn’t much in the way of data at all yesterday, though German GDP growth in Q3 was revised down to show a +1.7% expansion (vs. +1.8% previous estimate). Looking at the details, private consumption was the only driver of growth (+6.2%), with government consumption (-2.2%), machinery and equipment (-3.7%) and construction (-2.3%) all declining over the quarter. To the day ahead now, and data releases include French and Italian consumer confidence for November, as well as the Euro Area M3 money supply for October. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Visco, Schnabel, Centeno, Panetta and Lane, and BoE chief economist Pill. Tyler Durden Fri, 11/26/2021 - 08:12.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 26th, 2021

Futures Slide On Evergrande, Stagflation, Energy Crisis Fears

Futures Slide On Evergrande, Stagflation, Energy Crisis Fears Stock futures ticked lower on Monday, hurt by weakening sentiment in Asia and Europe amid growing worries about economic stagflation, the global energy crisis and renewed fears about property developer China Evergrande whose stock was halted overnight in Hong Kong, while Tesla shares rose after reporting a record number of electric vehicle deliveries. At 715 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 114 points, or 0.33%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 16.25 points, or 0.37%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 73.75 points, or 0.5%. “The global chip and energy shortage is getting worse, the inflation is rising, the recovery may be slowing, and that puts central banks between a rock and a hard place,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note. “The best they could do is to do nothing, or to tighten their monetary policy to avoid losing control on the economy.” The most notable overnight event was the suspension of trading in shares of debt-laden Evergrande which unsettled markets further about any fallout from its troubles even as media reports said the company would sell a stake in its property management unit for over $5 billion. Wall Street’s main indexes were battered in September, hit by worries about the U.S. debt ceiling, the fate of a massive infrastructure spending bill and the meltdown of heavily indebted China Evergrande Group. On the second trading day of October, investors took a defensive stance, with a cautious approach to riskier assets as a spreading energy crunch meets concerns over the duration of broader rising prices and the tapering of economic stimulus efforts. Investors also kept close watch on rising U.S. Treasury yields after data last week showed increased consumer spending, accelerated factory activity and elevated inflation growth, which could help push the Federal Reserve towards tightening its accommodative monetary policy sooner than expected. Among individual stocks, Merck & Co. extended its gains from Friday on the results of its experimental Covid pill. The stock climbed 2.6% premarket. 3M shares fell 1.5% after J.P. Morgan cut its rating on the industrial conglomerate’s stock to “neutral” from “overweight”.  Here are some of the other notable premarket movers today: Tesla (TSLA  US) shares climb 2.6% higher in U.S. premarket trading after the electric car maker reported record 3Q deliveries that easily beat estimates Amplify Energy (AMPY US) shares plummet 33% in premarket trading after California beaches in northern Orange County were closed and wetlands contaminated by a huge oil spill caused by a broken pipeline off the coast DHT Holdings (DHT US) shares rose as much as 3.7% in Friday extended trading after the company said it bought 1.23m of its own shares Offerpad Solutions (OPAD US) was down 3.1% Friday postmarket after registering shares for potential sale Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM US) shares rose as much as 23% in Friday extended trading after co. reported new long-term data from the OPTIC clinical trial of ADVM-022 single, in-office intravitreal injection gene therapy Markets also awaited U.S. Joe Biden’s new plan on China trade strategy, with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai set for new talks with Beijing later in the day over its failure to keep promises made in a “Phase 1” trade deal struck with former President Donald Trump. Biden's new plan follows a top-to-bottom review of import tariffs and other measures imposed by the Trump administration; reports also said that USTR will today say that China is not complying with the Phase 1 deal. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index trades flat, erasing earlier losses of as much as 0.6%, helped by gains in health care and basic resources shares. The healthcare sub index rose 0.8% after AstraZeneca’s Enhertu got a breakthrough therapy designation while basic resources sub-index up 0.3% as iron ore rallies. Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.2% having declined as much as 1% at the open. FTSE MIB lags on the recovery; FTSE 100 trades flat. Autos, banks and travel names are the weakest sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Adler Group shares jump as much as 18%, briefly erasing the previous week’s declines, after the firm said it’s reviewing strategic options that may result in a sale of assets Wm Morrison declines as much as 3.8% after the offer terms from winning bidder CD&R disappointed investors Sainsbury rises as much as 5.9% and Tesco gains 1.7% on speculation that CD&R’s Morrison deal may drive further interest in Britain’s grocery sector at a time when cash-rich buyout funds are stalking undervalued U.K. companies; also, a report says Tesco will announce a share buyback program this week Plus500 gains as much as 6.1% after the contracts-for-difference trading firm says full-year profit will beat market expectations Bewi rises as much as 9.9% after the owner of 50% of building products company Jackon Holding accepted Bewi’s offer BT slumps as much as 7.8% to a six-month low following a Telegraph report that Sky is closing in on a broadband investment deal with Virgin Media O2, raising worries over competition Azelio falls as much as 22% after newspaper Dagens Industri raised questions about orders for the renewable energy equipment developer Aryzta tumbles as much as 13% after results, halting a four-day winning streak Frasers falls as much as 12%, the most since December. Bank of America cut the owner of the Sports Direct retail chain to underperform from buy Asia stocks also declined, with Hong Kong shares a drag, after debt-ridden China Evergrande Group’s trading was suspended while investors also sold health care-related names and appeared wary heading into the final quarter of 2021. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped as much as 0.8%. Vaccine maker CanSino Biologics and Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Group were the biggest decliners on the measure as Merck & Co. said its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill cuts the risk of hospitalization and death in half. “Investors will need to take a sell-first ask-later stance given current elevated valuation levels of vaccine stocks,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. Also weighing on traders’ minds is the global energy crisis, which has spread to India and is stoking inflation concerns. Speculation about the potential restructuring of China Evergrande Group, which has suspended trading of its Hong Kong shares, is also affecting sentiment at a time liquidity is thinner. The mainland Chinese market is closed through Thursday for Golden Week holidays. Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index was among the top-performing gauges in Asia Pacific as the country takes steps toward further reopening. Measures across the cyclicals-heavy Southeast Asian markets also rose, while tech stocks including Alibaba and Meituan took a hit. Asian assets will be sold alongside global peers in the short term, said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “But we think cyclical sectors, especially exporters, should also perform well for the rest of the year, especially as more Asian economies are seeing a rising level of vaccination,” he added. Japanese equities fell for a sixth-straight day, as investor concerns deepened over contagion from China’s real-estate sector woes on the suspension of trading in shares of Evergrande and its property management unit. Electronics makers were the biggest drag on the Topix, which declined 0.6%, capping its worst losing streak since February 2020. Tokyo Electron and Fanuc were the largest contributors to a 1.1% drop in the Nikkei 225. “It’s possible Evergrande news flow is impacting Japan stocks, the issues surrounding the property firm aren’t resolved,” said Mamoru Shimode, chief strategist at Resona Asset Management. “It’s also important to keep in mind markets overall have been in risk-off mood since the latter half of September.” Travel and retail stocks gained, following U.S. peers higher after promising results for Merck’s experimental Covid-19 pill and amid signs of a pick-up in Japanese department-store sales. Meanwhile, Fumio Kishida was appointed prime minister by parliament Monday, and was set to reveal a new cabinet lineup as he seeks to revive support for his ruling party ahead of a general election that could likely come this month. In rates, Treasuries are near session lows, the 10Y TSY pushing on 1.50% cheaper by ~3.5bp on the day and near middle of last week’s 1.44%-1.565% range in early U.S. session after erasing gains that pushed yields to lowest levels in a week. 5s30s curve at ~111.7bp is steeper by nearly 2bp, probing 50-DMA and approaching last week’s high. Gilts led the selloff during European morning as regional stocks recovered from a weak open. Curve steepens, with long-end yields cheaper by around 4bp vs Friday’s close.  Peripheral spreads widen with long end Italy underperforming. Semi-core spreads tighten at the margin. In FX, Bloomberg dollar index is little changed; NOK, CAD and CHF are the best performers in G-10, JPY lags but trading ranges are narrow. Crude futures hold slightly in the red in choppy trade. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady and the greenback traded in tight ranges against its Group-of-10 peers. The euro reversed a modest decline to trade above $1.16, while the pound hovered after touching its highest level in nearly a week during the Asia session. Expected volatility is now at the highest in five months. The currency fell to a year-to-date low last week amid concerns over soaring energy prices, falling business confidence and the end of the government’s furlough scheme. The Aussie dollar was flat and option markets aren’t expecting the RBA’s policy decision Tuesday to be an eventful one for spot. The yen inched lower after earlier touching a one-week high when concern over potential contagion from indebted Chinese developer Evergrande weighed on Japanese stocks. In commodities, WTI is down 0.25% near $75.70, Brent just 0.1% lower near $79.20 ahead of today’s OPEC+ virtual gathering. Spot gold drops ~$10 to test Friday’s low near $1,750/oz. Base metals trade well with LME aluminum and zinc rising over 1% to outperform peers. Bitcoin and cryptos dropped after a burst higher late on Sunday, following the China Evergrande suspension even though i) the news appears to be positive and is in relation to the latest asset sale and ii) China has banned trading in cryptos, so it wasn't exactly clear why any mainlanders would be selling to meet margin calls. On today's calendar, we get August factory orders, and the final August durable goods orders, core capital goods orders. We also get more central bank speakers including Fed's Bullard, BoE’s Ramsden, ECB Vice President de Guindos and ECB’s Makhlouf. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 4,324.25 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 453.24 MXAP down 0.5% to 194.02 MXAPJ down 0.3% to 629.26 Nikkei down 1.1% to 28,444.89 Topix down 0.6% to 1,973.92 Hang Seng Index down 2.2% to 24,036.37 Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,568.17 Sensex up 1.1% to 59,391.71 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.3% to 7,278.54 Kospi down 1.6% to 3,019.18 Brent Futures little changed at $79.22/bbl Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,752.29 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.96 German 10Y yield rose 1.4 bps to -0.210% Euro up 0.1% to $1.1613 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg China Evergrande Group and its property-services arm were halted in Hong Kong stock trading amid a report that the developer agreed to sell a controlling stake in the unit to raise much- needed cash U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he won’t fall back on immigration to solve the U.K.’s truck driver shortage, as he presented supply chain troubles that have left supermarket shelves bare and gas stations dry as a “period of adjustment” in the wake of Brexit and the pandemic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reset the clock on Saturday, giving lawmakers until Halloween to strike a deal on both the bipartisan $550 billion infrastructure deal and a broader, signature package of social spending, health care and tax measures they must pass with only Democratic votes Germany’s Social Democrats under chancellor-in-waiting Olaf Scholz signaled progress in talks with the Greens on forming a coalition government with the Free Democrats, while Angela Merkel’s bloc kept the door ajar for a conservative-led alliance Japan’s Fumio Kishida was appointed prime minister by parliament Monday, and is set to reveal a new cabinet lineup as he seeks to revive support for his ruling party ahead of a general election that could likely come this month. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mixed as ongoing Evergrande default concerns clouded over the initial optimism following Friday’s rebound on Wall St where all major indices found some reprieve from last week’s downturn, although the S&P 500 still suffered its worst weekly performance since February and US equity futures also failed to hold on to opening gains with this week’s upcoming risk events adding to the cautiousness including the OPEC+ meeting later today, a bout of Asia-Pac central bank policy decisions from Tuesday and Friday’s NFP job data. The ASX 200 (+1.3%) outperformed, with the index unfazed by the absence of key market participants with mainland China away for Golden Week, South Korea closed due to National Foundation Day, and amid the quasi-holiday conditions in Australia as New South Wales observed Labour Day. Nonetheless, the local benchmark was propped up by the top-weighted financials sector with shares in Australia’s largest bank CBA boosted following a AUD 6.0bln off-market buyback and with reopening stocks, especially those in the travel industry, among the biggest gainers. The Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) wiped out its opening advances despite the lack of significant news catalyst for the reversal which was spearheaded by exporter names, while the focus in Japan turned to PM Kishida’s confirmation in parliament and for details of the new Cabinet members. The Hang Seng (-2.2%) was heavily pressured by losses in health and biotech stocks, while property names also suffered amid the current Evergrande fears after a USD 260mln note from Jumbo Fortune Enterprises matured on Sunday which was guaranteed by China Evergrande Group and its unit Tianji Holding Ltd, while there is no grace period for the payment but five days will be allowed for administrative or technical errors. Furthermore, shares of Evergrande, its property services unit and structured products have all been halted which reports circulating that Hopson Development is to acquire a 51% stake in Evergrande Property Services for HKD 40bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs tracked recent upside in T-notes and with support also from the negative mood in Japanese stocks, as well as the BoJ’s presence in the market for over JPY 1tln of JGBs mostly concentrated in 1yr-5yr maturities. Top Asian News Singapore Eyes More Vaccinated Travel Lanes in Cautious Reopen India Farm Protests Gather Momentum After 4 Demonstrators Killed U.S. Natural Gas Jumps Amid Strong Overseas Demand for Fuel Suzuki Takes Japan Finance Reins as Election, Stimulus Loom Major bourses in Europe have adopted somewhat of a mixed picture (Euro Stoxx 50 Unch; Stoxx 600 -0.2%), following on from the broad-based downbeat cash open seen as Europe picked up the baton from APAC. US equity futures see modest losses across the board but have again drifted off worst levels. Nonetheless, the NQ (-0.5%) remains the slight laggard vs its RTY (-0.1%), ES (-0.2%) and YM (-0.4%) counterparts. Sectors are now mixed with a slight defensive tilt, with Healthcare and Food & Beverages among the top gainers, whilst financials bear the brunt of the yield decline on Friday, with Banks at the foot of the bunch. In terms of individual movers, Morrisons (-3.8%) has accepted CD&R’s takeover offer, which has left Fortress empty-handed but has fanned speculation that the group may look towards Sainsbury’s (+5.9%), Tesco (+1.7%) or Marks & Spencer (+1.5%) as potential targets, with the former being the best suitor, according to reports. Elsewhere BT (-7%) plumbed the depths with some citing reports that Sky is to partner with Virgin Media-O2 in a move set to intensify the challenge to BT’s infrastructure builder Openreach. Top European News U.K.’s Fuel Crisis Has at Least a Week to Run as Army Steps In Adler Group Weighs Asset Sales to Cut Debt After Multiple Bids Amazon Rival Noon to Raise $2 Billion From Backers Including PIF Romanian Billionaire Petrescu Dies in Plane Crash Near Milan In FX, the broader Dollar and index remain caged to a tight range, with the latter within a narrow 93.900-94.104 band after last week printing a new YTD peak at 94.504. The Dollar remains on standby as risk events are abundant this coming week, including deliberations on Capitol Hill and Friday’s NFP. In terms of the developments in Washington, congressional leaders set a new unofficial month-end deadline to pass the infrastructure bill, and USD 3.5tln spending package, and House progressives were reported to offer to reduce spending to save the bill and are willing to compromise on the USD 3.5tln amount with limits but rejected moderate Democrat Senator Manchin’s USD 1.5tln offer. Over to the Fed and a story to keep on the radar - Fed’s Clarida (seen as the nucleus of the Fed) reportedly shifted out of a bond fund into a stock fund last year, which occurred a day prior to Fed Chair Powell issuing a statement of potential policy action due to the pandemic. A spokesperson passed this off as “pre-planned” balancing, but a similar situation led to the early resignation of Kaplan and Rosengren. Elsewhere, USTR Tai is to today unveil the China trade policy following a top-to-bottom review of the Trump admin’s tariffs and other measures. The pre-release noted that the US would begin a process to exempt certain products from tariffs on Chinese imports, with the US also seeking a meeting on Phase 1. That being said, officials noted that all tools remain on the table when asked about further tariffs. Net-net, the release was constructive and, as such, provided tailwinds to the CNH, whereby USD/CNH dipped from 6.4560 to a low of 6.4385. AUD, NZD, CAD - The non-US Dollars somewhat vary with the Loonie attached to price action in the oil complex heading into the OPEC+ meeting later today. The NZD outperforms in the G10 bunch, with the AUD on the other side of the spectrum in what is a busy central bank week for the antipodeans. The AUD/NZD cross will likely take some focus as the RBNZ is poised to hike its OCR, whilst the RBA is seen holding policy steady. AUD/NZD has made its way back towards 1.4050 from its 1.0485 overnight high. NZD/USD meanders around 0.6950 (0.6927-53 range) whilst AUD/USD hovers around the 0.7250 mark (where AUD 1bln of OpEx resides), with the 21 DMA at 0.7295 and the 50 at 0.7311. EUR, GBP - Both European majors trade relatively flat in the European morning, but Brexit rhetoric has ramped up with UK Brexit Minister Frost warning the EU that the UK is prepared to trigger Article 16 unless the EU agrees to replace the Northern Ireland Protocol. There were separate reports that ministers will be given a deadline of the end of next month to decide on whether to suspend the Northern Ireland Brexit deal unilaterally, and senior sources warned that unless the EU was prepared to engage in a “serious negotiation” during the coming weeks, the government would have no choice but to suspend the deal by December. EUR/GBP topped its 100 and 21 DMAs (both at 0.8566) after finding a floor at its 100 DMA (0.8546). EUR/USD is back above 1.1600 (vs 1.1588 base) with EUR 1bln options expiring at the figure. GBP/USD hovers mid-range between 1.3534-77. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures have clambered off worst levels but remain tentative ahead of the OPEC+ confab later today (full preview in the Newsquawk Research Suite). In terms of the long and short of it, markets expect OPEC+ to stick to its plan of raising monthly oil output by +400k BPD; albeit, some look for a larger-than-planned hike. Oil journalists have said this morning that despite the noise surrounding a greater-than-planned hike, ministers expect the current plan to be maintained, although drama in the meeting cannot be omitted. Upside during the European session coincided with headlines suggesting “OPEC+ is seen keeping output policy unchanged”, citing sources, although this was poorly phrased as it incorrectly intimates production being unchanged as opposed to plans for the 400k BPD hike being unchanged. Other things to be aware of aside from OPEC, BioNTech CEO expects the virus to likely mutate and that a new vaccine formulation could be required by the middle of next year, according to the FT, whilst the Gulf of Oman has seen cyclone Shaheen hit the area, although exports are not expected to be impacted yet aside from a delay in loadings. WTI Nov resides just under 76/bbl (75.30-76.20 range) whilst Brent Dec hovers sub USD 79.50/bbl (78.75-79.50/bbl range.) Elsewhere, spot gold and silver have been drifting lower in tandem with the rise in yields seen throughout the morning, with the former briefly dipping under USD 1,750/oz whilst spot silver fell under USD 22.40/oz. Turning to base metals, LME copper posts modest gains and remains north of USD 9,000/t, with some dip-buying being cited. US Event Calendar 10am: Aug. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.7% 10am: Aug. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.5% 10am: Aug. -Less Transportation, prior 0.2% 10am: Aug. Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8% 10am: Aug. Factory Orders, est. 1.0%, prior 0.4% 10am: Aug. Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.8%, prior 1.8% 10am: Fed’s Bullard Takes Part in Panel Discussion on the Economy DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap It’s certainly an odd financial world at the moment. The negatives are obvious and revolve mostly around delta, weaker than expected growth, the energy crisis, ever higher inflation and tighter central bank policy. The positives are that the base effects with numerous lockdowns imposed in Q4 2020 to at least the start of Q3 2021 mean that it won’t be that difficult for growth to still be numerically healthy for a few more quarters. So once the disappointment of growth not being as high as was hoped at this stage fades we should still be left with decent growth. Famous last words but covid should play less and less part in our lives over the year ahead as vaccines and better treatments (eg Merck antiviral pill news on Friday) become more and more widespread. In addition, stimulus and excess savings remain high and financial conditions are still very loose. While regular readers will know I’ve long been beating the drum on higher inflation and will continue to do so, I’m not convinced that growth is rolling over enough for stagflation to be the best description of the outlook for the next 12 months. However I suppose much depends on how you define it. Whilst on the topic of the energy crisis, the world is full of pictures of the UK population queuing for petrol because of a perceived shortage of HGV drivers. We’ll never know if there was actually a shortage that would have threatened fuel supplies as when the story broke 10 days ago panic set in and we had a fuel run (not as shocking as a bank run but formed from the same cloth) as the population desperately tried to refuel. My wife decided to hold out thinking the situation would resolve itself. However by Saturday night we had 10 miles left in the tank and during the day she had passed 6-7 petrol stations with either no fuel or huge queues. As we were putting the kids to bed she announced that she was getting desperate and stressed about it and was going to go out now as she was worried she wouldn’t be able to take the kids to school this week if she didn’t go out to the local area to try to find petrol. I said she was crazy to go at peak time (partly as I didn’t want to put the kids to bed alone - tough on crutches) and urged her to go very early Sunday morning instead. She ignored me and ventured out on what I thought was a suicide mission. 20 minutes later she was back with a full tank! I’ve no idea how and I won’t ask! I apologised! Outside of all the ongoing energy and stagflation chatter, all roads this week point to payrolls Friday as unless there is a marked deterioration across the whole sweep of labour market indicators within the report, this will likely be the catalyst to cement the November taper barring an exogenous or market shock. Investors will also be increasingly focused on the US debt ceiling deadline, whilst Congress simultaneously grapples with the infrastructure bill and the reconciliation package. Elsewhere on the political scene, coalition negotiations in Germany will be important to look out for, as the parties seek to form a government after the election. Before we look ahead, markets have started the week with a risk-off tone, with Asian equities including the Hang Seng (-2.17%), Kospi (-1.62%), the Nikkei (-0.95%) all moving lower while markets in China remain closed. Stocks pared gains on the news that Evergrande’s trading had been suspended in Hong Kong, with a filing from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange saying that this was “pending the release by the Company of an announcement containing inside information about a major transaction.” Meanwhile Bloomberg reported earlier that Evergrande had guaranteed a dollar note worth $260m with an official due date of Oct 3 by Jumbo Fortune Enterprises, making the effective due date today since maturity was on a Sunday. Elsewhere in Asia, NHK reported that Japan’s incoming Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, planned to hold a general election on October 31, and looking forward, US equity futures are also pointing lower, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.32%. Looking ahead, the US jobs report will be one of the main macro highlights this week, and follows last month’s release that strongly underwhelmed expectations, with nonfarm payrolls growth of just +235k in August being the slowest since January. So another poor release would not be welcome news even if it did reflect labour shortages. In terms of what to expect this time around, our US economists are forecasting a pickup in September, with nonfarm payrolls growing by +400k, and the unemployment rate ticking down to a post-pandemic low of 5.1%. Remember in the weak report last month, yields rose on the day as markets focused on the wage increases rather than the poor headline number. As we said at the time the bond reaction to last month’s report probably helped signal the end of the extreme positive technicals and short positioning in treasuries. Over the summer strong inflation and decent data couldn’t help treasuries sell off, indicating bullet proof technicals but the period around last month’s release seemed to turn the tide the other way a bit. The other important data release this week will be the global services and composite PMIs out tomorrow, which will give an indication of how the economy has fared into the end of Q3. That said, the flash readings we’ve already had have indicated slowing growth momentum across the major economies, so it will be interesting to see where things progress from here. Turning to the US, negotiations in Congress will be in focus as legislators face the debt ceiling deadline this month (expected to be breached around October 18th according to Treasury Secretary Yellen last week), just as the Democrats are also seeking to pass a $550bn bipartisan infrastructure bill and a reconciliation package. On Saturday, Speaker Pelosi seemed to suggest that the new deadline was October 31st for the bipartisan bill which highlights how much difference there still is between the progressives and moderates on the reconciliation package. Will they eventually find a compromise for a lower amount than the original $3.5tn (maybe around $2tn) that makes nether side happy but gets the legislation through? Staying on the political scene, there’ll also be a focus on coalition negotiations in Germany, where exploratory talks have now begun between the parties. The Greens and the liberal FDP will be key to forming a majority in the new Bundestag, with 210 seats between them, as both the centre-left SPD and the conservative CDU/CSU bloc still hope to lead the next coalition. Initial exploratory talks began with the SPD yesterday, and the FDP have also spoken to the CDU/CSU, with the Greens set to follow tomorrow. On the central bank side it’s a quieter week ahead, with the two G20 policy decisions expected from the Reserve Bank of Australia (tomorrow) and the Reserve Bank of India (Friday). In Australia, our economist is expecting no change in policy and a reaffirmation of their dovish policy outlook. And in India, our economist also expects the MPC to keep all key policy rates unchanged, with our base case remaining for a reverse repo rate liftoff starting from December. The day-by-day calendar is at the end as usual. Back to last week, and global equity markets slid for the third week out of the last four as the S&P 500 fell -2.21%, with a +1.15% increase on Friday not stopping the index from having its worst week since the end of February. The losses were primarily led by growth and technology stocks as the NASDAQ declined -3.20% on the week, while cyclicals such as banks (+1.92%) and energy (+5.78%) stocks outperformed. European equities similarly fell back, as the STOXX 600 ended the week -2.24% lower after Friday’s -0.42% loss came prior to a late US rally. Global sovereign bonds sold off for a sixth straight week, though most of that selling came in the first two days as the global risk-off tone caused investors to search for havens. US 10yr Treasury yields still ended the week up +1.1bps, despite Friday’s -2.6bp decline. Bond yields in Europe moved higher as well, with those on 10yr bunds increasing +0.4bps, to trade at their highest levels since early-July. And 10yr yields on French OATs (+1.2bps) and Italians BTPs (+3.1bps) also rose further. UK gilts underperformed them all with yields increasing +7.7bps. The major driver of the move in global yields was rising inflation expectations with US 10yr breakevens increasing +4.5bps, while 10yr bund and breakevens rose +9.3bps to reach their highest level since 2013 and gilt breakevens (+3.5bps) rose to their highest level since 2008 even though they were much higher mid-week. The US September ISM manufacturing survey rose to 61.1 from 59.9 in the prior month even as supply bottlenecks intensified. This along with strong demand readings from businesses and consumers have led to higher prices which are mostly being passed onto consumers. This was seen in the PCE deflator data from Friday which showed prices rose 4.3% (4.2% expected) y/y with the core reading increasing 3.6% (3.5% expected) y/y. The University of Michigan survey showed respondents’ inflation expectations in a year dropped slightly from the initial reading 4.6% (4.7% initial , 4.8% exp), which was in-line with last month. 5-10yr expectations remain elevated at 3.0%. Overall the sentiment reading of 72.8 (71.0 prior) was better than the initial survey but still was the fifth worst reading in a decade, with only last month and the early months of the pandemic having been lower. Separately, Euro-area inflation reached its highest level since September 2008 on Friday as the headline September CPI print registered at 3.4% y/y (3.3% expected) in September, fuelled by the cost of energy and travel. Meanwhile, in Europe the manufacturing PMI readings were largely in-line with the preliminary readings with the Euro Area print sitting at 58.6 (58.7 prior) with Germany (58.4) and France (55.0) both just under their prior readings. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/04/2021 - 07:55.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytOct 4th, 2021

Wall Street falls as trade war fears add to virus woes

A slump in technology stocks knocked Wall Street's main indexes lower on Friday, as signs of deteriorating trade relations between the United States and China added to economic worries due to the novel coronavirus pandemic......»»

Category: topSource: reutersMay 15th, 2020

Futures Flat As China Injects Fresh Monetary Stimulus

Futures Flat As China Injects Fresh Monetary Stimulus US equities were set to end the Thanksgiving week higher, propelled by expectations that the Fed will ease off on its pace of monetary tightening following Wednesday's dovish minutes while an 25bps RRR cut out of China sparked hope that Beijing will stimulate the world's 2nd largest economy. S&P 500 were higher by 0.1%, trading at 4038 after rising just shy of 4,050 overnight after the underlying gauge gained 1.6% this week. Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.1%, amid much lighter than usual trading volumes in a week shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. The US stock market will close early today. As noted earlier, China’s central bank on Friday cut the amount of cash lenders must hold in reserve for the second time this year, an escalation of support for an economy racked by surging Covid cases and a continued property downturn. “How effective that will prove to be when cities are seeing restrictions and effective lockdowns reimposed is hard to say,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda. “But combined with other measures to boost the property market and ease Covid curbs, the cut could be supportive over the medium term when growth remains highly uncertain.” In premarket trading, Activision Blizzard fell after a report that the US Federal Trade Commission is likely to file an antitrust lawsuit to block Microsoft’s deal to buy the video-game maker. Apple shares dipped after a report that production of iPhones in November could fall by at least 30% at Foxconn Technology Group’s Zhengzhou plant amid worker protests. Energy companies gained with the price of Brent crude rising as the European Union considers a higher-than-expected price cap on Russian crude. Brent trades above $86/barrel, though is on track for a slight loss this week amid worries over its demand outlook as Covid infections rise in China. Exxon +0.9%, Petroleo Brasileiro ADRs +2.7%, Schlumberger +1.2% in US premarket trading. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Coupa Software shares are up 3.2% in premarket trading on Friday, as analysts digested a Bloomberg News report that Vista Equity Partners is exploring an acquisition of the expense management software company. Firms wrote that the report points to greater private equity appetite for deals. Manchester United shares jump 7.9% in premarket trading after Saudi Arabia’s sports minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki Al-Faisal told BBC Sport that its government would support private sector bids for the team, as well as Liverpool football club. Activision Blizzard shares fall 3.4% in US premarket trading on a media report that the US Federal Trade Commission is likely to file an antitrust lawsuit to block Microsoft’s $69b deal to buy the video-game maker. Apple shares fall 0.8% in US premarket trading on a report that production of iPhones could fall by at least 30% in November at Foxconn’s Zhengzhou plant where worker protests have disrupted operations. US-listed Chinese stocks fall in premarket trading and are set for their first weekly decline in four weeks, with surging Covid cases and increasing curbs across the country hurting optimism that the country will reopen soon Fed minutes published on Wednesday showed that officials concluded the central bank should soon moderate the pace of interest-rate hikes to mitigate overtightening risks. That pushed the VIX Index to its lowest close in more than three months that day, and was last seen about to drop below 20 - the last time VIX was a teenager was during the bear market rally in August. Investors will now closely monitor economic data ahead of the final Fed decision of 2022 to assess the impact of previous rate hikes, and for clues whether the Fed will hike 50 or 75 in December. “The Fed needs to continue to hike rates reasonably to the 5% to 5.25% levels, so there are still some rate hikes to come, so markets are a little bit optimistic right now," said Stephane Monier, chief investment officer at Banque Lombard Odier & Cie SA. He expects to see a small US recession in 2023, but it will be “nothing to compare to the crisis of 2008 and 2009.” Meanwhile, Barclays Plc strategists led by Emmanuel Cau said the rally in equities is mainly due to short covering by macro hedge funds and CTAs, warning against extrapolating the move into the new year. European energy stocks were higher too, helping to keep the Stoxx 600 Index on course for a sixth week of gains, the longest winning streak in a year. Credit Suisse Group AG fell to a fresh record low in the wake of massive outflows the bank reported this week. The Stoxx 50 was little changed after China’s latest effort to stimulate its economy, while volume on the Stoxx 600 was 38% below 100-day average. FTSE 100 outperforms peers, adding 0.3%, CAC 40 is flat but underperforms peers. Besides energy, health care and construction were the strongest performing sectors. Here are the biggest European movers: Truecaller rose as much as 8.4% after Citi upgraded its rating on the caller ID software maker to buy from neutral, citing “significant upside” after recent declines and noting good 3Q results. Elia Group shares jumped as much as 4.8% after the transmission system operator boosted its financial outlook for 2022. Rockwool gained as much as 4.4%. 3Q results should mark a trough for margins for the Danish insulation supplier, Handelsbanken wrote while upgrading its short-term rating to hold from sell. Intrum fell as much as 18% after the Swedish debt collection group said it needs to make negative adjustments of SEK4.3 billion in its jointly-owned Italian SPV, according to a statement. Fielmann shares fell as much as 6.3% after Berenberg said margin recovery is still not in sight for the eyewear retailer. Man Group fell as much as 5.7%, before paring the decline, after UBS cut its rating to neutral from buy. The market is underestimating the effect of an upcoming pension fund de-risking process on the firm’s liquid total and absolute return products, the bank says. Credit Suisse shares dropped as much as 2.3%, to a new record low, after Vontobel cut its price target, saying the Swiss lender “urgently” needs to halt net outflows in its core wealth management business JPMorgan quantitative strategist Khuram Chaudhry said the recent rebound in European equities driven by expectations of peaking inflation and bond yields is nothing but a bear market rally and that investors are “jumping the gun.” He forecasts euro-area equities will eventually recover “later in 2023.” Asian stocks declined, with Chinese technology shares retreating amid concerns about growing mainland Covid cases.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost as much as 0.5%, on course to snap a three-day advance, with Tencent and Alibaba the biggest drivers of losses. The measure was still poised for its fourth weekly gain, the longest such streak since August. Trading volumes were thinner than usual in some markets following the US Thanksgiving holiday. Benchmarks in Hong Kong were among the biggest decliners, with the Hang Seng Tech Index closing down more than 2% before Meituan’s earnings release. Virus cases surged in Chinese cities including the capital Beijing, testing authorities’ resolve to ease their strict Covid Zero policy. Hopes for reopening had fueled a recent equity rally after a four-month selloff. “We think the Chinese markets are going through a volatile bottoming process,” Eli Lee, chief investment strategist at Bank of Singapore, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “The capitulation that we saw in late October likely is the worst we’ll see. So I think investors should be gradually adding exposure to Hong Kong and China.” Malaysia’s benchmark dropped, paring Thursday’s surge after Anwar Ibrahim was appointed prime minister. Stocks also fell Friday in Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia, while Vietnam’s key share gauge rose more than 2%.   Australian stocks gained for a fourth day to close the week at May-highs: The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3% to close at 7,259.50, its highest since May 30, boosted by banks and consumer discretionary stocks. The benchmark gained 1.5% for the week.  Nanosonics, which rallied after an upgrade at JPMorgan, was the top performer. Meanwhile, shares of lithium-related companies were the worst performers on the benchmark after news that battery electric vehicle registrations in China fell 20.9% in October from a month earlier.   In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.5% to 11,382.56 In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for the first day in four as the greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Treasuries were steady to a tad lower. Antipodean currencies and the yen were the worst performers. New Zealand’s consumer confidence index fell to 80.7 in November from 85.4 in October, according to ANZ Bank The yen dropped alongside Japanese bonds after data show faster-than-expected inflation in Tokyo. Tokyo consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 3.6% y/y this month, the most since 1982 and faster than the 3.5% increase estimated by economists in a Bloomberg survey. The yen heads for a weekly gain The euro pared a decline to trade around $1.04. Bunds and Italian bonds fell, led by the belly, and paring some of the recent gains. Money markets added slightly to ECB tightening wagers ECB’s Chief Economist Philip Lane said long-term inflation expectations appear well anchored The pound retreated, but was still near a three-month high against the dollar. Gilt outperformed bunds In rates, Treasuries were modestly weaker Friday, led by the belly where rates are near their cheapest levels of the day into early US session. The 10-year rate is up around 4bp at ~3.73%. Bunds and gilts yields trade heavier and the selloff in European debt helped reverse early gains in Treasuries during the London session. US trading session is expected to be quiet after Thanksgiving holiday with an early close recommended for Friday at 2pm ET. The move in Treasury 10-year yields lags increase in comparable bund yields, which are more than 9bp higher on the day. Front-end of the Treasuries curve is steady, steepening 2s10s spread by ~2.4bp on the day. Peripheral spreads are mixed to Germany. In commodities, oil rebounded throughout the European morning, with WTI crude close to $80 a barrel as the European Union weighed a higher-than-expected price cap on flows of Russian crude and slowdown concerns threaten the outlook for energy demand. The rise occurred despite a modest revival in the DXY’s fortunes to back above 106.00 and further China COVID woes. EU talks on the oil price cap look like they will resume later today, via WSJ's Norman. Spot gold and silver have succumbed to the mentioned USD upside, with the yellow metal probing USD 1750/oz to the downside while metals are incrementally firmer given China stimulus. Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the GfK consumer confidence reading from Germany, as well as consumer confidence releases from France and Italy. Otherwise, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Muller and Visco. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,040.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 440.36 MXAP down 0.4% to 154.28 MXAPJ down 0.2% to 494.58 Nikkei down 0.4% to 28,283.03 Topix little changed at 2,018.00 Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 17,573.58 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,101.69 Sensex little changed at 62,287.70 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,259.48 Kospi down 0.1% to 2,437.86 German 10Y yield up 3.7% to 1.92% Euro down 0.2% at $1.0387 Brent Futures up 1.5% to $86.64/bbl Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,749.68 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.19% to 105.88 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller warned that the main risk in the battle with record inflation is halting increases in interest rates too early Beijing’s streets are deserted and grocery delivery services are running out of capacity as rising Covid cases trigger lockdown-like restrictions across swathes of the Chinese capital German Chancellor Olaf Scholz doesn’t want to start a new transatlantic trade war and he’s worried France’s Emmanuel Macron may be stoking one Germany’s economy proved more resilient in the third quarter than initially reported, growing 0.4% on strong consumer spending. An initial reading of 0.3% already had been a positive surprise, defying the country’s struggles with surging energy costs and uncertainty stoked by Russia’s war in Ukraine Sweden’s household lending grew last month at the slowest pace in a decade as interest rates are soaring and the Nordic nation’s home prices are in their worst slump since the 1990s A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed with price action mostly rangebound amid the lack of any significant news catalysts to spur markets and the absence of a lead from Wall St due to the Thanksgiving holiday. ASX 200 gained with the index lifted by strength in the consumer-related and defensive sectors but with upside limited by losses in the commodity-related industries. Nikkei 225 was lacklustre amid pressure in bonds and as participants digested firmer-than-expected Tokyo inflation data in which Core CPI rose to its highest in four decades. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with underperformance in Hong Kong after the  government extended social distancing measures through to December 14th, while the mainland bourse was kept afloat despite the deteriorating COVID situation with sentiment helped by ongoing hopes of monetary policy easing. Top Asian News China RRR cut for all banks is seen as likely, according to China Securities Journal. Subsequently, PBoC cuts banks Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by 25bp, to keep liquidity ample. Effective from December 5th. Will strengthen the implementation of prudent policy. Focus on supporting the real economy and preventing flood-like stimulus. To release circa. CNY 500bln in long-term liquidity. UK Cabinet Office instructed central government departments to stop installing Chinese-made surveillance systems in sensitive sites due to security risks, according to FT. Beijing City reports 1,119 (prev. 863) COVID infections on November 24th as of 3pm, according to a health official; Guangzhou, China will not be put into lockdown, according to an official; the coming week will be key for COVID control; Nanjing City, China is to conduct mass COVID testing for five days from November 26th European bourses are little changed but experienced a very modest negative bias initially, Euro Stoxx 50 Unch, in limited holiday-sapped trade. Stateside, futures are similar to European peers in terms of both the direction and magnitude of trade thus far, ES +0.2. UK Black Friday volume of payment transactions have thus far been consistent with 2021, via Barclaycard Payments. Top European News Spanish windfall tax on banks and large energy companies cleared the first hurdle, according to Reuters. ECB's Lane says following a meeting-by-meeting approach to setting monetary policy will help ensure that our decisions are responsive to the evolving forward-looking assessments of the medium-term inflation outlook ECB insider says they see no realistic scenario where we reduce the balance sheet by much next year, via Econostream. FX DXY lifted to a 106.20 peak at best, with much of the action occurring prior to the PBoC RRR cut. A cut which has applied further modest pressure to the Yuan, though it was already sensitive to the latest COVID controls/cases. Antipodeans are towards the bottom of the pile despite domestic data in a paring of the week's RBNZ induced upside. At the other end of the spectrum, the EUR is the incremental outperformer though has made little ground above Unch. and is currently pivoting 1.04 Fixed Income Core benchmarks have slipped throughout the morning, with Bunds moving below yesterday's trough though retain the 141.00 handle. EGBs were seemingly unaffected by ECB's Lane who reaffirmed a meeting-by-meeting approach to policy. USTs in-fitting directionally but with magnitudes less pronounced given the shortened session for Thanksgiving. Commodities WTI and Brent Jan’23 have exhibited grinding upside throughout the European morning, upside that has occurred despite a modest revival in the DXY’s fortunes to back above 106.00 and further China COVID woes. Saudi and Iraqi Energy Ministers stressed the importance of working within the OPEC+ framework and reiterated further measures to ensure stability of the oil market if necessary, according to a statement. EU talks on the oil price cap look like they will resume later today, via WSJ's Norman. German Energy Regulator says he will consider gas storage levels to be critical if they are sub-40% on February 1st, currently all indicators are stable re. gas supply. Spot and have succumbed to the mentioned USD upside, with the yellow metal probing USD 1750/oz gold silver to the downside while metals are incrementally firmer given China stimulus US Event Calendar Nothing scheduled DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The day after Thanksgiving always seems to mark the start of the home stretch towards Xmas in markets and even more today given it's now only exactly a month away. If you can make it through today without getting a single Black Friday never-to-be-repeated sales offer then congratulations. Already this morning I've been offered on email a new bargain TV, cheap golf balls, knockdown outdoor winter clothing, 50% off panto tickets (I wouldn't go if you paid me), and a big discount off an indoor golf simulator. I must admit the last of these held my interest for a bit longer than the others! On a more serious note, watch out for the usual Black Friday estimated US retail sales figures that will come out over the weekend. S&P have predicted that this year will see the first real adjusted fall in sales since 2009. Unsurprisingly, it’s been a pretty subdued 24 hours for markets, with much lower volumes than usual due to the US holiday. Nevertheless, there were fresh signs elsewhere that risk appetite was continuing to grow among investors, aided by some positive data releases and further signals that central banks might not end up hiking as aggressively as feared. That was evident across multiple asset classes, and yesterday saw the STOXX 600 (+0.46%) advance to a 3-month high, yields on 10yr bunds (-7.9bps) fall to a 2-month low, whilst the dollar index (-0.23%) weakened to a 3-month low this morning as the risk premium buoying the greenback unwound yet further. This more constructive tone was supported by more positive data releases from Europe that built on the upside data surprises of late. In particular, the release of the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany surprised on the upside with an 86.3 reading (vs. 85.0 expected), as did the expectations component at 80.0 (vs. 77.0 expected). That marks the second consecutive monthly improvement for both measures, and comes on the heels of the better-than-expected numbers from the flash PMIs and consumer confidence in recent days. Admittedly, none of these numbers are great in absolute terms, but given some of the fears for the European economy this winter after the Russian gas cut-off, they’re a lot better than many had expected until fairly recently. Yesterday also saw the release of the latest ECB account from their October meeting. In their recap (link here), our European economists write that the accounts push back on an overly dovish interpretation to the October meeting, which is also supported by recent data outturns, along with public comments from Governing Council members. The minutes did say that “a few members expressed a preference for increasing the key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points” at the last meeting, but ultimately “a 75 basis points increase was judged to be an appropriate response in view of the protracted period of excessively high inflation and the risk that this might add to medium-term price pressures”. As a reminder, our economists expect the ECB to slow the pace of hikes to 50bps in December, following the 75bps pace in September and October, but it’s a close call. European sovereign bonds rallied strongly against this backdrop, having also got a lift from the release of the Fed minutes the previous evening as well. Yields on 10yr bunds came down by -7.9bps to 1.84%, marking their lowest level in 2 months, just as yields on 10yr OATs (-9.4bps) and BTPs (-13.9bps) also fell. Those moves occurred in spite of remarks from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, who said that “incoming data so far suggest that the room for slowing down the pace of interest rate adjustments remains limited”. Indeed the front end in Europe didn't rally as much meaning a deeper inversion for the German curve. Given the debate between 50bps and 75bps, the flash CPI reading for November out on Wednesday will be particularly important. Equities rallied alongside bonds yesterday, and the STOXX 600 (+0.46%) hit a 3-month high after every sector group except tech moved higher on the day. The DAX (+0.78%) was a particular outperformer, hitting a 5-month high, and the CAC 40 (+0.42%) hit a 7-month high. Meanwhile in the US, markets were closed given the Thanksgiving holiday, but futures were open and remained in positive territory throughout the day, pointing to further gains for the S&P 500 from its 2-month high in the previous session. As we type this morning, contracts tied to the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 are +0.25% and +0.44% higher, respectively. Meanwhile, yields on the 10yr UST (-3.69 bps) have dipped to 3.66% in Asia trading after resuming trading with the 2yr yield slipping (-5.15 bps) to a one week low of 4.43%. A rare recent (albeit small) steepening. Asian equity markets are struggling to end the week on a positive note as ongoing concerns over China’s daily Covid cases is hurting. They reported a record number of 31,987 new infections for Thursday surpassing Wednesday’s record of 29,754 cases thus increasing pressure on Beijing’s zero-tolerance approach to the virus as the outbreak worsens. The country is persistently registering high caseloads despite authorities implementing several restrictions across its major cities. As I type, the Hang Seng (-0.86%) is leading losses with the Nikkei (-0.30%) and the KOSPI (-0.12%) also trading in negative territory. Bucking the trend this morning are ironically Chinese stocks with the Shanghai Composite (+0.39%) and the CSI (+0.45%) trading up. Elsewhere in Asia, early morning data showed that core consumer prices in Japan’s capital rose +3.6% y/y in November (v/s +3.5% expected & October’s +3.4%), its fastest annual pace in 40 years driven mostly by electricity bills and food prices with a weak yen pushing the cost of imports higher. Overall Tokyo CPI inflation rose +3.8% y/y in November, up from last month's +3.5% and also at its fastest pace in 40 years. With the city’s inflation staying above the BOJ’s 2% target for the 6th straight month, the data is signalling broadening inflationary pressure. Back to yesterday and here in the UK, gilts noticeably underperformed after a couple of BoE officials made some hawkish remarks on policy, with the 10yr yield up by +2.3bps on the day. First, Deputy Governor Ramsden said that he was “materially less confident” that unemployment would rise as fast as the Monetary Policy Report forecasts by end-2023, which would suggest that inflationary pressures would therefore be stronger. Furthermore, he pointed out that most of the fiscal tightening measures in last week’s Autumn Statement didn’t come into effect until April 2025, so would have little effect on inflation over the MPC’s three-year forecast horizon. Then we heard from Catherine Mann, who’s also one of the more hawkish MPC members, who said that “it is more costly to get inflation down once medium-term inflation expectations have become out of control”. Sterling continued to advance against that backdrop, surpassing the $1.21 mark in trading yesterday for the first time since August. Staying on central banks, Sweden’s Riksbank delivered a 75bps hike as expected, taking the policy rate up to a post-2008 high of 2.5%. In their forecast, they showed further rises in the policy rate at the start of 2023 that took it to just beneath 3%, and their statement said that the risk that “current high inflation will become entrenched is still substantial”. The Swedish Krona ended the day up +0.4% against the US Dollar, although this was aided in part by dollar weakness. To the day ahead now, and data releases include the GfK consumer confidence reading from Germany, as well as consumer confidence releases from France and Italy. Otherwise, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Muller and Visco. Tyler Durden Fri, 11/25/2022 - 08:25.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeNov 25th, 2022

Futures Reverse Losses, Hit Session HIghs Alongside Oil Despite China Covid Curbs

Futures Reverse Losses, Hit Session HIghs Alongside Oil Despite China Covid Curbs After trading in the red for much of the overnight session, US futures inched higher shortly after the European open after a volatile session in Asia marked by rising Covid cases in China, while a Fed president turned dovish and showed openness to slowing the path of rate hikes. Futures on the S&P 500 traded near session highs, up 0.4% to 3,972 by 8:00 a.m. in New York, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.1% after struggling for direction.  Stocks in Hong Kong and Mainland China slipped as China’s daily virus infections climbed to near the highest on record, although a bounce in Japanese stocks pushed overall Asian markets higher. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index rose, led by energy shares. The dollar weakened against all major currencies and Treasury yields declined. Crude oil prices rose after Saudi Arabia pushed back against reports of a potential OPEC+ production increase. Bitcoin's gradual, methodic slide continued interrupted by occasional bouts of ungradual, unmethodic panic liquidations. In premarket trading, Zoom Video dropped after the firm reported its slowest quarterly sales growth on record and trimmed full-year revenue forecasts. Chinese stocks listed in US fell after a ramp-up in Covid restrictions to curb a spike in virus cases across China. Pinduoduo -2.4%, -0.6%, Bilibili -2.8%, Nio -2.5%, Li Auto -3.9%. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Blackstone shares fall 2.5% in US premarket trading as Credit Suisse cut its rating to underperform from neutral and said that it is awaiting a better entry point for US alternative asset manager stocks. Alibaba shares pare losses in US premarket trading after Reuters reported that Chinese authorities are set to hand down a fine of over $1 billion for Jack Ma’s Ant Group, an event market watchers see as an end to Beijing’s prolonged investigation into the fintech firm and a first step to restarting its IPO. GameStop shares swing between slight gains and losses in US premarket trading, following a Bloomberg report that billionaire investor Carl Icahn was said to hold a large short position in the video-game retailer. Dell Technologies stock slipped 2% in postmarket trading on Monday as the computer company’s revenue forecasts for the current quarter missed estimates, as economic uncertainty begins to affect information technology customers. Keep an eye on after its price target was cut at Piper Sandler as AWS revenue decelerates along with an industry-wide slowdown at major cloud computing firms. The brokerage notes, however, that while “industry growth ticks down, AWS leadership remains.” Watch Activision Blizzard as Baird raised the recommendation on the stock to outperform from neutral, while downgrading Airbnb, Carvana and Vroom all to neutral since these companies are exposed to pullbacks in discretionary “high ticket” purchases. Keep an eye on software stocks, including Workday and Coupa Software as Morgan Stanley cuts price targets across the sector, with analyst saying that consensus estimates for 2023 are likely too high while customer IT budgets are set to be reduced. "Market sentiment remains toneless for the second trading day of the week as most investors are still struggling to assess the short- to mid-term outlook for risky assets," said Pierre Veyret, technical analyst at ActivTrades. “Despite the market starting to price in a potential slowing in rate hikes, some Fed officials have moved to temper these anticipations by reiterating their will to tackle inflation, and that this goal was far from being achieved.” Fed officials continued to highlight the need to curb inflation but hinted that a slower pace of hikes could be possible. On Monday, San Fran Fed President Mary Daly said officials need to be mindful of the lags with which monetary policy works, while repeating that she sees interest rates rising to at least 5%. Separately, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she has no problem with slowing down the central bank’s rapid rate increases when officials meet next month. “Markets get jittery whenever the Federal Reserve is due to speak or issue important information,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. “With the central bank set to publish the minutes from its November meeting tomorrow, equity investors need to brace themselves for the Fed to say it is likely to keep raising rates to tame inflation, even though October’s consumer prices figure was below expectations.” After this quarter’s 10% rally in the S&P 500, Goldman strategists expressed skepticism about US stocks returns next year, setting a 4000 points target for the benchmark by Dec. 2023 as earnings growth stalls. “Zero earnings growth will match zero appreciation in the S&P 500,” strategists led by David Kostin wrote in a note on Tuesday. Then again, the same David Kostin said excatly one year ago that the S&P would close 2022 at 5,100 so expect him to be dead wrong again. In Europe,  Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.2%, with energy stocks the best-performing sector as crude advanced after Saudi Arabia denied report of discussion about OPEC+ oil-output hike. BP rose 5.3% and Repsol was 6% higher after both stocks got analyst upgrades. Hong Kong stocks slid as China’s daily virus infections climbed to near the highest on record. Covid-control restrictions now affect a fifth of China’s economy. Still, the eventual easing by China of its curbs to counter the virus are likely to mean that European profits will hold up relatively well because of the benefits to luxury and mining companies, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs. Here are some of the notable European movers: AO World shares jumped as much as 17%, to the highest since early July, after the online appliances retailer raised its FY adjusted Ebitda forecast. Verbund rose as much as 8.2% after Stifel upgraded the utility company to buy from hold, saying conditions of Austria’s price cap are “much better” than had been anticipated. Allfunds shares fell as much as 11% after a discounted share offering by holders LHC3 and BNP Paribas in the mutual-fund distributor. Shares in digital price-tag maker SES- imagotag fell as much as 6%, before paring the drop, after majority shareholder BOE Smart Retail offered 1.5 million shares at a 7.3% discount to the last close. ThyssenKrupp declined as much as 5.9% after holder Cevian offered ~23.4m shares via UBS with price guidance of €5.15 apiece, representing a 4.7% discount to last close. Vodafone shares fell as much as 3.4% after the telecoms group was double-downgraded to underperform from outperform at Credit Suisse, which cited a growing risk to the dividend and elevated costs weighing on its outlook. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced as the yen’s recent weakness boosted Japanese exporters, offsetting losses in Chinese tech shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%, with Japanese firms Toyota, Sony and Mitsubishi helping lift the gauge along with Taiwan’s TSMC. Up more than 10% this month, the MSCI Asian stock benchmark has outperformed its US or European peers in November thanks to China’s rally.  Among sectors, energy and industrials advanced the most, while communication services and consumer discretionary shares edged lower. Chinese stocks in Hong Kong fell for another day, as a worsening outbreak on the mainland raised doubts as to whether authorities can hold on to their softer Covid Zero stance. A rally this month fueled by reopening hopes has now come to a halt as investors come to terms with China’s Covid reality.  “As we’ve seen in the Covid issues in China, it’s going to be stop-go sort of news flow in terms of the lockdowns et cetera and that’s going to add volatility to markets,” Lorraine Tan, director of equity research at Morningstar, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Japan equities climbed as the yen’s retreat over the past four days supported exporters’ shares in the face of concerns over China’s Covid Zero policy and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.   The Topix rose 1.1% to 1,994.75 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.6% to 28,115.74. Toyota Motor contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.3%. Out of 2,165 stocks in the index, 1,737 rose and 366 fell, while 62 were unchanged. “There is an impression that the market will be quiet with no major selloffs ahead of the Japanese and US holidays,” said Hirokazu Kabeya, chief global strategist at Daiwa Securities. “In some aspects, it is difficult for the stock market to fall as investors find it hard to make a move.”  Stocks in Malaysia fell for a second day after Saturday’s election produced the country’s first-ever hung parliament. Australia’s equity benchmark rose to a five-month high buoyed by miners.The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.6% to close at 7,181.30, its highest since June 6, driven by a rebound in mining and energy shares.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 11,420.42. New Zealand’s central bank is poised to raise interest rates by an unprecedented 75 basis points on Wednesday, accelerating its monetary tightening to get inflation under control. Elsewhere, markets were mixed with moderate gains or losses.  In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as the greenback fell against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Risk-sensitive Antipodean currencies and the Norwegian krone were the top performers. CFTC data showed that speculative and institutional traders turned their back to the dollar yet again last week as the currency stayed under pressure. At the same time, one-month risk reversals in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rallied in favor of the topside. The euro rose versus the greenback but underperformed most of its major peers. Bunds slipped and Italian bonds inched lower. The pound rose against a broadly weaker dollar and was steady against the euro. Data showed UK government borrowing grew less than forecast in October, ahead of a testimony in Parliament by officials from the Office for Budget Responsibility. The yen rose for the first time in five days after remarks from some Federal Reserve officials solidified bets for smaller US rate hikes. Japan’s yield curve steepened a tad ahead of a local holiday. One-week risk reversals in dollar-yen traded earlier at 24 basis points in favor of the Japanese currency, which marked the least bearish sentiment for the greenback in more than a month. In rates, Treasuries ground higher leaving yields near session lows into the early US session with 10-year at around 3.79%. Bunds and gilts both lag Treasuries, trading slightly cheaper over early London session. US session focus is on Fed speakers and conclusion of this week’s auctions with a 7-year sale at 1pm.  Treasury 10-year yields outperforming bunds and gilts by ~5bp on the day. Long-end of the Treasuries curve underperforms, steepening 10s30s spread by 2.5bp on the day.  This week’s auctions conclude with $35b 7-year note sale at 1pm, follows Monday’s double auction of 2- and 5-year notes. In commodities, it has been a contained session for the crude complex after yesterday’s WSJ fake news-prompted rollercoaster, with benchmarks higher by around 1% amid further pushback to the production increase report. Kuwait Oil Minister has pushed back against reports of any discussions over OPEC+ raising production at its next meeting, according to the State news agency; Iraq's SOMO says no discussions have taken place over an increase at the next OPEC meeting. China has reportedly paused the purchase of some Russian oil, awaiting details of the price cap to see if it provides a better price. Spot gold and silver are firmer, with the yellow metal at session highs just below the USD 1750/oz mark as risk sentiment struggles to find firm direction and the USD continues to pullback. For reference, the current spot gold peak of USD 1748/oz is shy of the 10-DMA at USD 1755/oz and still some way from the 200-DMA at USD 1801/oz. Cryptocurrency prices were mixed, with investors braced for more ructions as further digital-asset sector bankruptcies loom following the demise of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire. Looking to the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include the Fed’s Mester, George and Bullard, along with the ECB’s Holzmann, Rehn and Nagel. Data releases include Euro Area consumer confidence for November, as well as the US Richmond Fed manufacturing index for November. Lastly, the OECD will be releasing their Economic Outlook. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,964.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 435.56 MXAP up 0.4% to 151.12 MXAPJ down 0.1% to 486.08 Nikkei up 0.6% to 28,115.74 Topix up 1.1% to 1,994.75 Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 17,424.41 Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,088.94 Sensex up 0.4% to 61,380.15 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,181.30 Kospi down 0.6% to 2,405.27 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.99% Euro up 0.3% to $1.0272 Brent Futures up 0.7% to $88.04/bbl Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,745.92 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.35% to 107.46 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg More than six years after voting to leave the EU, the UK is facing a prolonged recession, a deep cost-of-living crisis and a shortage of workers. Last week’s Autumn Statement heralded years of higher taxes and cuts to public spending The ECB needs to maintain the pace of rate increases at its next meeting on Dec. 15 to demonstrate policy makers are “serious” about taming inflation, Financial Times reports, citing an interview with Robert Holzmann, governor of the National Bank of Austria and member of the ECB’s governing council Germany will introduce a cap on gas and electricity prices for companies and households as Europe’s largest economy seeks to contain the fallout from Russia’s moves to slash energy supplies. Large parts of German industry will no longer be able to avoid production cuts if companies need to further reduce natural gas consumption, according to a survey Italy has signed off on a €35 billion ($36 billion) budget law for next year which will raise a windfall tax on energy companies in order to expand aid to families and businesses hit by higher prices Spain announced a series of steps to shield mortgage-holders on lower incomes from rising costs, stepping up efforts to cushion the economic blow from high inflation and surging interest rates The premium investors pay for German two-year bonds over equivalent swaps has dropped to levels last seen in July in recent days, down more than 40 basis points from a record high in September. It comes after the German finance agency and the European Central Bank took steps to increase the supply of debt available to borrow in repo markets An FTX Group bankruptcy filing showed that the fallen cryptocurrency exchange and a number of affiliates had a combined cash balance of $1.24 billion A new currency trading algorithm developed by a Dutch fund threatens to wrest away millions of euros of fees from investment banks if it gains traction in the pension industry China’s overnight repo rate plunged to its lowest level in nearly two years, an indication that a liquidity squeeze seen last week has eased following measures by the central bank A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Nesquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive as the regional bourses attempted to recover from the recent China COVID woes but with price action contained amid quiet newsflow and a lack of fresh macro drivers. ASX 200 was positive amid strength in the commodity-related sectors in which energy led the advances after oil prices rebounded following Saudi’s denial that it was considering a production increase. Nikkei 225 higher and reclaimed the 28,000 level with early outperformance in Shionogi after its COVID-19 therapeutic drug was presumed effective by Japan’s PMDA. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed with Hong Kong pressured by weakness in the tech sector, while losses in the mainland were reversed after the latest policy support pledges by China including measures to sustain the recovery momentum of the industrial economy and with the PBoC to release CNY 200bln worth of loan support for commercial banks to ensure near-term delivery of homes. Top Asian News US Defence Secretary Austin met with Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe in Cambodia, according to a US official cited by Reuters. US Defence Secretary Austin discussed the need for dialogue on reducing risk and improving communication with his Chinese counterpart, according to a Pentagon spokesperson. Furthermore, Austin raised concern about increasingly dangerous behaviour by Chinese aircraft which increases the risk of an accident and he reiterated that the US remains committed to the longstanding Once China Policy. Chinese Defence Ministry spokesman said the main reason for the current situation faced by China and the US is because the US made the wrong strategic judgement. In relevant news, Global Times' Hu Xijin tweeted that the meeting between the two defence ministers must be supported and that no matter how many frictions, China and the US cannot fight militarily which is the bottom line and the two sides’ due responsibility to the world. EU is poised to renew sanctions on Chinese officials accused of human rights violations in Xinjiang for an additional year, according to SCMP. RBA's Lowe say the Bank is not on a pre-set path and could return to 50bps increase or keep rates unchanged for a time. The Board expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead. Understand that many people are finding the rise in interest rates difficult. It is necessary, though, to ensure that the current period of higher inflation is only temporary. Beijing City reports 634 (prev. 274) COVID infections on November 22nd as of 3pm, according to a health official, via Reuters. Subsequently, Beijing will tighten COVID testing requirements as of November 24th, according to an official; COVID tests within 48 hours will be required to enter public venues. European bourses are modestly firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%, though fresh developments have been limited and the upside itself is tentative at best. Sectors are mixed with the likes of Energy outperforming after yesterday's noted pressure, no overarching bias present in the European morning. Stateside, US futures are near the unchanged mark but have, similar to European peers, been modestly firmer/softer throughout the morning, ES +0.1%. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is to jointly develop 3nm chips with five-six fabless clients for large quantity supply as soon as 2023, via Korea Economic Daily citing sources. Top European News ECB's Centeno sees conditions for rate hikes to be less than 75bps in December and said they "really have to reverse" the trend of rising inflation to have greater visibility on monetary policy, according to Bloomberg. ECB's Holzmann said he supports a 75bps hike in December and noted there are no signs that price pressures are easing, according to FT. ECB's Rehn says they will probably hike rates again, pace depends on how the economy develops. ECB's Nagel says a 50bp rate hike is "strong", rates are still "relatively far" from restrictive territory, via Reuters; calls for commencing a gradual APP unwind in Q1-2023. Italy approved a EUR 35bln budget law for next year which plans to increase an energy windfall tax, according to Bloomberg. FX Dollar loses recovery momentum as risk appetite picks up, DXY drifts between 107.810-300 bounds and retests a Fib retracement level just over 107.500 Kiwi rebounds to top 0.6150 vs Buck irrespective of worrying NZ trade data, as RBNZ looms amidst expectations of a larger 75bp hike in the OCR Aussie recovers alongside Yuan and amidst comments from RBA Governor Lowe reaffirming guidance for further tightening, AUD/USD eyes 0.6650 from around 0.6600 at the low Loonie regains poise in tandem with oil and probes 1.3400 against its US rival pre-Canadian data and remarks from BoC's Rogers Yen, Franc, Euro and Pound all take advantage of Greenback fade plus yield convergence to Treasuries as USD/JPY reverses from 142.00+ and USD/CHF from almost 0.9600, while EUR/USD eyes 1.0300 and Cable 1.1900 vs sub-1.0250 and 1.0825. Fixed Income Rangebound trade for core fixed income, though intraday boundaries have extended on both sides throughout the European morning as the complex struggles for firm direction. Bund unreactive to a well-received Bobl auction while USTs are a handful of ticks firmer ahead of the week's last US auction, with volumes currently fairly light. Note, final orders for the UK's 0.125% 2073 Gilt I/L exceed GBP 16.8bln, according to a bookrunner, with pricing set 20bp below the 2068 comparable. Commodities Comparably contained session for the crude complex after yesterday’s pronounced OPEC+ related price action; benchmarks currently firmer by around 0.5% amid further pushback to the production increase report. White House Press Secretary said President Biden is committed to further lowering gasoline prices. Kuwait Oil Minister has pushed back against reports of any discussions over OPEC+ raising production at its next meeting, according to the State news agency; Iraq's SOMO says no discussions have taken place over an increase at the next OPEC meeting. China has reportedly paused the purchase of some Russian oil, awaiting details of the price cap to see if it provides a better price, via Bloomberg citing sources. German gas price break will apply retroactively from January, via der Spiegel; reduction in gas and heat prices is not expected to take effect until March 1st. European Commission proposes to introduce a gas price correction mechanism for one-year from January 1st 2023, via Reuters citing draft legislation; proposal leaves the actual price cap blank for now. Diplomats say that EU gov'ts want the gas price cap at EUR 159-180/MWh, vs the much higher cap expected to be proposed by the Commission. UK officials visited Brazil in October to assess the regions beef standards, via Politico; a visit which has fuelled hopes in Brazil of a future trade deal. Spot gold and silver are firmer, with the yellow metal at session highs just below the USD 1750/oz mark as risk sentiment struggles to find firm direction and the USD continues to pullback For reference, the current spot gold peak of USD 1748/oz is shy of the 10-DMA at USD 1755/oz and still some way from the 200-DMA at USD 1801/oz. Geopolitics Moscow considers a search necessary for a peaceful solution to the Kurdish issue after Turkey's strikes in Syria and believes Turkey should restrain from the use of excessive military force, according to RIA citing Moscow's Syria envoy. N. Korea will take an ultra strong response to anyone that interferes with its sovereign rights, via KCNA; US will face a greater security crisis the more it insists on taking hostile actions. US Event Calendar 10am: U.S. Richmond Fed Index, Nov., est. -8, prior -10 Central bank speakers 11am: Fed’s Mester Discusses Wages and Inflation 11:45am: Bank of Canada’s Carolyn Rogers Speaks on Financial Stability 2:15pm: Fed’s George Takes Part in Policy Panel 2:45pm: Fed’s Bullard Discusses Heterogeneity in Macroeconomics DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A decent slug of yesterday was spent debating whether England's 6-2 win at the World Cup was a performance to scare the world of football into submission or whether Iran's 20th spot in the FIFA World rankings may slightly flatter them. As ever, your opinions are welcome! Good luck to all your teams as the WC introduces a few big hitters today! I'm not sure if it was the World Cup but markets had a rather slow and lacklustre start to the week yesterday. The S&P 500 (-0.39%) fell back amidst concerns about rising Covid cases in China and ongoing fears about a US recession next year. The effects were evident across multiple asset classes, and WTI oil prices fell below their start of 2022 levels briefly intra-day (-6.24% on the day at the lows) as investors grappled with the prospect of lower Chinese demand alongside speculation about an OPEC+ output increase, which was eventually denied. WTI rallied back hard on a Saudi denial of the story to close just -0.44% lower, while Brent futures were -6.06% lower before closing down only -0.19%. In Asia trading, WTI prices (+0.74%) have climbed back above the start of week levels and are trading just above $80/bbl while Brent futures (+0.49%) are fractionally higher as we go to print. In terms of what’s coming out of China, there are growing concerns among investors that there’ll be a return to lockdowns following the weekend news that they’d had their first Covid death in six months. The overall rise in case numbers now makes this the third-largest outbreak of the pandemic so far, behind only the Shanghai lockdowns in Q2 and the Wuhan outbreak in early 2020. Beijing has increased its restrictions, and now requires arrivals to take three PCR tests within the first three days and to stay at home until they get a negative result. In the Haidian district of Beijing, schools have now switched to online learning as well. This has all served to dampen the speculation of recent weeks that China might be moving gradually away from its zero-Covid strategy, and the city of Shijiazhuang has even asked residents to stay at home for 5 days. China recorded 27,307 new local Covid cases nationally yesterday, almost close to the record high of 28k seen in March. The irony is that the China reopening story has been a big positive driver of China-related risk and overall markets over the last couple of weeks, so we are trading between feast and famine on this story. Both could of course be ultimately right. There might be many more restrictions in the near term but stronger more durable reopenings by the spring. Markets are struggling to price this at the moment though. For now, the effects were apparent among Chinese stocks listed in the US, with companies like Alibaba (-4.41%), (-6.37%) and Bilibili (-8.15%) underperforming the broader equity moves. The Chinese Yuan (-0.64%) also weakened against the US Dollar, although to be fair this was partly a function of dollar strength. Overnight in Asia, China risk has bounced a bit. The Shanghai Composite (+0.75%) and the CSI (+0.77%) are both up alongside the Nikkei (+0.72%). The Hang Seng (-0.39%) and KOSPI (-0.35%) are both lower. US equity futures are just above flat as we type. Staying with equities, the earlier plunge in oil prices was bad news for energy stocks, which were among the biggest sectoral underperformers on both sides of the Atlantic. By the close of trade, the S&P 500 was down -0.39%, with energy down -1.39%, rallying midday from -4.64% to beat out consumer discretionary shares which were -1.41% lower. A number of other cyclical industries underperformed as well, and the NASDAQ fell -1.09% on the day, whilst the small-cap Russell 2000 fell -0.57%. In Europe, the performance was marginally better, but that still wasn’t enough to stop the STOXX 600 posting a very marginal -0.06% decline, with energy (-3.02%) far and away the underperformer as shares closed near the nadir of Brent and WTI futures pricing. There clearly should be a bounce this morning. The more negative tone out of China yesterday has only added to existing fears about a US recession over the coming months, which the latest moves in the Treasury yield curve did little to dispel. The 2s10s yield curve flattened another -2.2bps to -73bps taking it beneath the 1982 low of -71.65bps to a level unseen since 1981. This came as the 10yr tracked intraday pricing in oil as well, having fallen as much as -7.1bps intraday before finishing the day more or less unchanged. This morning in Asia, 10yr UST yields (-1.12 bps) are slightly lower, trading at 3.82%. There have been a few Fed speakers over the last 24 hours to impact treasury pricing. SF Fed President Daly warned against the two-sided risks of over-tightening, but hinted that her estimate of terminal may have risen to around 5.1% since the November meeting. Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Mester supported downshifting to a 50bps hike in December, but noted the Fed was not “anywhere near to stopping”, echoing Chair Powell’s tone from the November FOMC presser. There's quite a bit of Fed speak today as you'll see in the day ahead at the end. Whilst it’s widely expected that the Fed will slow down the pace of hikes to 50bps in December, there’s somewhat more doubt about the ECB’s next move the following day, who it seems are still weighing up another 75bps hike or slowing down to 50bps. Yesterday, we heard from Austria’s Holzmann (a hawk), who said he’d only favour a 50bps hike if there was a “major reduction” in inflation this month. But Portugal’s Centeno (a dove) said that the conditions were in place for a hike beneath 75bps next month. Separately, Slovenia’s Vasle talked about the need for restrictive policy, saying that the ECB needs to “keep gradually raising rates, even into the territory where monetary policy won’t be just neutral, but will become more restrictive.” European sovereigns seemed unfazed by this debate, trading in line with the broader global moves. Yields on 10yr bunds (-2.1bps) and OATs (-1.8bps) moved lower, but there was an underperformance among southern European countries, with yields on Italian BTPs up +4.3bps. Interestingly, there was a notable downside surprise in the latest German PPI reading, which came in at +34.5% in October (vs. +42.1% expected). Now it’s worth noting that the decline was driven by energy, but at -4.2% on the month, that was the first monthly decline in the index since mid-2020. To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include the Fed’s Mester, George and Bullard, along with the ECB’s Holzmann, Rehn and Nagel. Data releases include Euro Area consumer confidence for November, as well as the US Richmond Fed manufacturing index for November. Lastly, the OECD will be releasing their Economic Outlook. Tyler Durden Tue, 11/22/2022 - 08:02.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytNov 22nd, 2022

Futures Soar Despite Latest UK Newsflow Rollercoaster Fiasco

Futures Soar Despite Latest UK Newsflow Rollercoaster Fiasco It was another overnight emotional and markets rollercoaster session thanks to the constant chaos of newsflow  and confusion out of the UK. Just around midnight ET, the Financial Times reported that the Bank of England would delay the start of its gilt-sale program (i.e. Q.T.), sending UK gilts, sterling and US equity futures sharply higher. Those gains, however, turned to losses when the central bank denied the report in a statement just around 5am ET, pushing the yield on the UK 10-year bond seven basis points higher to 4.05% while cable dumped 0.5%. That said, the BOE didn’t rule out the prospect of the BOE announcing a delay at a later time. The central bank has already delayed the start of the sales once, during the fallout from the government’s fiscal plan last month Despite the reversal by the BOE, the huge meltup which we said would be triggered on Monday by Friday's massive shorting, extended for a second day, encouraged by the reversal of uber-bear Michael Wilson who as we noted yesterday, expects a bear market rally pushing the S&P as high as 4,150, and helping the S&P to close above a key technical level on Monday. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.8%, while S&P 500 futures advanced 1.6% at 7:30 a.m. in New York, as tech giants Amazon and Microsoft led major technology and internet stocks higher in premarket trading, while the 10-year Treasury yield holds steady at about 4% and the Bloomberg dollar index was flat. In premarket trading, bank stocks traded higher as Goldman Sachs becomes the last of the big six US lenders to report earnings this quarter, beating on the top and bottom line (a more detailed report to follow). In corporate news, Credit Suisse is exploring a sale of its US asset-management operations and moving closer to securing financing for other businesses. Amazon and Microsoft lead major US technology and internet stocks higher in premarket trading, set to extend their gains for a second straight session. Nvidia (NVDA US) +2.7%, Amazon (AMZN US) +2.3%, Alphabet (GOOGL US) +2%, Meta (META US) +2%, Apple (AAPL US) +1.7% and Microsoft (MSFT US) +1.7%. Here are some other premarket movers: AVEO (AVEO US) shares jump 38% in US premarket trading hours to $14.43 after LG Chem said it will buy the biotech for $15 per share in an all-cash transaction with an implied equity value of $566m on a fully diluted basis. Target (TGT US) stock rises 2.7% in US premarket trading after it was upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies, which says the combination of a subdued valuation and improvements in the supply chain and inventory positioning supports a bullish stance on the retailer. FuboTV (FUBO US) shares rise as much as 11% in premarket trading, with analysts saying the firm’s decision to end operations of its Fubo Sportsbook betting unit will help its bottom line. Juniper (JNPR US) shares gain as much as 2.6% in US premarket trading after Piper Sandler upgraded the internet infrastructure company to neutral from underweight with the expectation that management can continue to increase product revenue numbers in full-year 2023 by around 10% year-on-year. Keep an eye on MongoDB (MDB US) after its shares were raised to neutral at Redburn as the stock is trading 20% below 2020 valuation lows and the brokerage sees no further downside that justifies a sell rating. Watch US timber stocks as RBC reshuffles ratings in the sector ahead of the third-quarter earnings season, which analysts say will mark a “sharp return” to normalized pricing, while downgrading Resolute (RFP US) and Western Forest Products (WEF CN) to sector perform from outperform. "Investors keep pushing stock indices higher following the rebound over the annual lows at the end of last week, and growing risk appetite can now be seen across different asset classes,” said Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades. As risks including high inflation, slower growth and the energy crisis still remain, “this is still seen as a technical correction,” he added. Another reason for the continued meltup is because JPMorgan's inhouse permabull, Marko Kolanovic, who has been long and wrong all year, appears to have thrown in the towel and late on Monday the Croat trimmed the extent of equities overweight in his model portfolio this month, citing “increasing risks around central banks making a hawkish policy error and geopolitics.” As we have said before, the bear market won't end until Marko turns bearish, so that was another piece of the puzzle falling into place. Kolanovic says go underweight corporate bonds over equities. The crash will not end until he turns bearish — zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 11, 2022 Meanwhile, the Bank of America monthly global fund manager survey “screams macro capitulation, investor capitulation, start of policy capitulation,” opening the way to an equities rally in 2023  the bank's Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Hartnett wrote in a note on Tuesday. They expect stocks to bottom in the first half of 2023 after the Federal Reserve pivots away from raising interest rates. “There’s still a strong feeling of a bear market rally about trading over the course of the last week,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda Europe Ltd. “The economic landscape looks treacherous and we don’t even know if we’re at peak inflation and interest rate pricing yet. Those are substantial headwinds that will make any stock market rebound extremely challenging.” In Europe, stocks rose for a fourth day, with most industry groups in the green. Risk sentiment was firmly bullish, with cyclical stocks leading the rally, while technology shares also outperformed. Autos, tech and financial services lead gains in Europe as Euro Stoxx 50 rallies 1.4%. FTSE MIB outperforms peers, adding 1.8%. Here are the most notable European movers: AZA SS: Avanza shares jump as much as 17%, the most since Oct. 2019, after the Swedish retail trading and savings platform reported what Handelsbanken called a “strong beat” on net interest income. THG LN: THG shares surge as much as 12% after SoftBank sold its stake in the British online shopping firm. The sale removes an overhang on the stock and it could help sentiment that existing investor Qatar Investment Authority bought the majority of the stake, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. TIT IM: Telecom Italia shares rise as much as 9.6% in Milan trading on speculation reported by Italian newspaper MF regarding potential interest for the company by CVC. PUB FP: Publicis shares rise as much as 4.7% after the advertising agency lifted FY organic growth guidance for a second straight quarter. GALP PL: Portuguese oil co. Galp falls as much as 6.8% as it says it received a force majeure notice from Nigeria LNG following flooding that caused a “substantial reduction” in the production and supply of LNG and natural gas liquids, according to a regulatory filing. N91 LN: Ninety One shares drop as much as 5.3% after the investment manager reported a decline in assets under management during the second quarter. ERF FP: Eurofins Scientific shares drop as much as 6.0%, the most since July 28, after the provider of testing services reported third-quarter revenue that fell year-on-year. ROG SW: Roche shares slide as much as 1.6% after the Swiss pharmaceutical group slightly missed consensus 3Q expectations on overall sales, but focus remains on its outlook and pipeline, analysts say. Earlier in the session, Asian equities rebounded, led by advances in tech stocks following a rally on Wall Street, as possible delays in bond sales by the Bank of England bolstered investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.5%, buoyed by TSMC, Tencent and Alibaba. All sub-gauges except real estate climbed.  The Financial Times reported that the BoE may delay selling billions of pounds of government bonds, easing investor angst after the UK’s botched fiscal plan. The UK central bank denied the report after most markets in the region were closed. Tech stocks listed in Hong Kong climbed after the Nasdaq 100 index had its best day since July.  Most benchmarks advanced, with notable gains in Australia, Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea. Concerns that China is delaying the release of its 3Q GDP report amid the on-going party congress failed to quell the mood. The prospect of the BoE postponing QT “offers the potential for a decline in global rates volatility, a pre-condition for a broader improvement in cross-asset risk sentiment,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said before the bank’s denial. It’s been almost a year since Bitcoin hit a record. Even after Tuesday’s gain, the key Asian stock benchmark still trades close to its early-2020 low, as China’s virus lockdowns and property crisis weigh on growth. Asian stocks have underperformed their US and European peers this year as the Fed’s rate hikes pressure emerging market currencies, triggering an exodus of foreign funds Japanese stocks rose, following a rebound in US peers as the S&P 500 was seen pointing toward a technical recovery. Electronics makers were the biggest boost. The Topix rose 1.2% to close at 1,901.44, while the Nikkei advanced 1.4% to 27,156.14. Recruit Holdings Co. contributed the most to the Topix gain, rising 5.1% after announcing a buyback. Out of 2,166 stocks in the index, 1,809 rose and 279 fell, while 78 were unchanged. Australia stocks rebounded with tech and real estate shares leading; the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.7% to close at 6,779.20. The climb tracks a regional rally, buoyed after gains on Wall Street and a report of a possible delay in the Bank of England’s quantitative tightening.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.6% to 10,847.34. In rates, Treasuries edged higher in early US trading after paring declines. Losses persist in gilts, where UK curve bear-flattens, with bunds also under pressure amid auctions by Germany, UK and Finland. US yields remain within 2bp of Monday’s closing levels, 10-year yields just under 4% with bunds and gilts trading cheaper by 6bp and 8bp in the sector. Gilt price action has been choppy; Long-end gilts take a breather, 10-year yield about 1bp higher after FT reported that Bank of England is set to delay quantitative tightening until gilt markets calm which the BOE later denied; UK sells 30-year notes later. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index pared losses to trade marginally lower; yen settles at around the 149 handle while the pound trades lower toward $1.13.  New Zealand’s dollar led G-10 gains after quarter-on-quarter inflation exceeded forecasts, fueling bets the central bank will need to keep raising interest rates The euro moved in a narrow range around $0.950, while the German 10- year yield reversed earlier losses to gain 6bps to 2.32% The pound weakened against all of its G-10 peers and fell below $1.13, following in an advance of as much as 0.5% to $1.1410. The long-term outlook for the pound has started to improve. At least, that’s what the options market is saying. The yen briefly rallied sharply versus the dollar after dropping to 149.29 per dollar, the lowest level since August 1990. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that while the interest-rate differential with US has been a driving factor for the yen to weaken recently, the currency doesn’t move in parallel with the difference over the longer term The yuan stayed near 7.2 per dollar as the central bank kept the currency’s reference rate near 7.1 level in the last few sessions, a move that’s expected to slow the currency’s decline. USD/CNY falls 0.1% to 7.2000. It droped as much as 1.2% in early trade, close to the central bank’s fixing. USD/CNH little changed at 7.2075. In commodities, oil switched between gains and losses as traders weighed a tight market against concerns over a global economic slowdown. WTI and Brent December contracts are softer on the session and gave up earlier gains as the DXY creeps higher throughout the European morning. Spot gold is flat around the USD 1,650/oz mark in a USD 10/oz range – but still under its 10 and 21 DMAs at 1,673.56/oz and 1,668.63/oz. LME metals are mostly lower amid the recent rise of the Dollar, whilst Rio Tinto forecasted annual iron ore shipments at the lower end of guidance and sees further downside risks to demand as the global economy slows. White House is reportedly planning an oil reserve release announcement this week with a release of another 10mln-15mln bbls in an effort to balance markets and keep prices from climbing, according to Bloomberg. EU financial services chief McGuiness called on the US to create new crypto rules and said any regulation imposed on the industry would need to be global for it to work, according to FT. Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include industrial production and capacity utilisation for September, as well as the NAHB housing market index for October. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Makhlouf and Schnabel, as well as the Fed’s Bostic and Kashkari. Finally, earnings releases include Goldman Sachs, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and Lockheed Martin. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.4% to 3,741.00 MXAP up 1.4% to 138.93 MXAPJ up 1.6% to 450.98 Nikkei up 1.4% to 27,156.14 Topix up 1.2% to 1,901.44 Hang Seng Index up 1.8% to 16,914.58 Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,080.96 Sensex up 1.0% to 58,966.61 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.7% to 6,779.22 Kospi up 1.4% to 2,249.95 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 402.75 German 10Y yield up 3% at 2.337% Euro up 0.1% to $0.9852 Brent Futures down 0.6% to $91.05/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,651.42 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% at 112.187 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Just 10% of Britons have a favorable opinion of Liz Truss, a YouGov survey found, piling further woes on the beleaguered prime minister a day after she was forced to row back on the bulk of her economic vision for Britain UK trade unions have called on millions of workers to protest against any return to austerity after Britain’s new chancellor of the Exchequer warned that “some areas of spending will need to be cut.” There’s scope for a Polish central bank hike by as much as 100bps in November, Monetary Policy Council member Joanna Tyrowicz says in ISB News interview French rail, energy and other key workers are striking on Tuesday to demand a bigger share of corporate profits, raising pressure on President Emmanuel Macron to take further steps to ease the impact of surging inflation ECB policy maker François Villeroy de Galhau expects the central bank to continue to “go quickly” until its deposit rate reaches 2% at the end of the year, Financial Times reports, citing an interview A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were positive with the region inspired by gains in global counterparts following the UK Chancellor’s reversal of most of the measures of the 'mini-Budget' and with a report later suggesting a delay of QT by the BoE. ASX 200 was led by strength in tech and with the top-weighted financials sector also notching firm gains, while commodity-related stocks were somewhat varied with Rio Tinto choppy after a mixed quarterly activity report. Nikkei 225 reclaimed the 27,000 level to the upside, but was off highs with officials continuing to pledge to take action to address excess FX moves. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. gained although the mainland lagged amid COVID woes after Nanjing halted certain indoor venues due to rising cases, while the postponement of key Chinese data releases including Q3 GDP has led to some speculation that the data could be disappointing, although it was also suggested that the delay could be so that officials can concentrate on the Chinese Communist Party Congress. Top Asian News China's Nanjing halted certain indoor venues including bars, KTVs and gyms, while it also halted dine-in services due to an increase in coronavirus cases. RBA Minutes from the October 4th Meeting stated the decision to raise rates by only 25bps was finely balanced with the smaller move warranted by the scale of hikes already delivered and lags in policy. RBA added that the uncertain outlook argued for slower hikes for a time but noted further increases in rates are likely over the period ahead and that rates are not especially high, while the board emphasised the importance of keeping inflation expectations anchored and RBA said monthly CPI data confirmed broad-based pick-up in inflation, rents and utilities are expected to increase. RBA Deputy Governor Bullock said the board expects to increase interest rates further over the coming months with the pace and timing to be determined by data, while she added that as the board meets more frequently than most peers, it can achieve a similar tightening with smaller individual rate increases. European equity bourses traded with gains across the board but are off best levels. Sectors are mostly firmer with no overarching theme; Autos & Parts, Financial Services, and Industrial Goods lead the charge whilst Healthcare, Optimised Personal Care, Energy and Basic Resources sit at the bottom of the pile. US equity futures are firmer to a greater magnitude than their European counterparts, with the ES trading on either side of 3,750 whilst the NQ outperforms its peers. Intel's (INTC) MobilEye IPO is set to be priced between USD 18-20/shr, according to Bloomberg. Renault (RNO FP) and Nissan (7201 JT) are moving towards a "landmark" deal to reshape their alliance, according to Bloomberg; subsequently echoed by the Renault CEO in a Nikkei interview. Top European News BoE is reportedly expected to further delay quantitative tightening until gilt markets calm, according to FT. Subsequently, the BoE labelled this report as "inaccurate". UK PM Truss said she wants to accept responsibility and apologise for the mistakes made, while she added that she will lead the Tories into the next general election and is sticking around because she was elected to deliver for the country. PM Truss also stated the most vulnerable will be protected into next winter regarding household energy bills and that they are looking at exactly how they can do that, according to a BBC interview. ECB's Villeroy said the UK crisis shows the risk of a vicious loop and that the pensions turmoil underscored the need for non-banks to build liquidity buffers, according to FT. European Commission to unveil proposal of further emergency energy measures for coming winter (including joint purchasing & alternative benchmark) at 14:30BST/09:30EDT, according to journalist Keating. FX Kiwi elevated as stronger than expected NZ CPI metrics lift RBNZ rate outlooks, NZD/USD probes 0.5700 before pullback Sterling underperforming after making stellar gains on Monday as BoE says FT's QT delay report is inaccurate; Cable sub-1.1300 from just over 1.1400 at one stage Loonie lags within a 1.3771-1.3657 range as crude prices sag Euro pivots 0.9850 vs Buck as DXY holds around 112.000 and Fib resistance at 0.9858 hampers EUR/USD Yen pares some losses from under 149.00 against Dollar amidst some unsubstantiated talk of intervention The CBRT's move to raise the required level of bond holdings for FX deposits means that banks must hold an additional TRY 80-100bln of bonds, via Reuters citing bankers. BoJ and FSA are to hold 17th cooperation on financial stability, according to reports. Fixed Income Gilts saw an initial bounce at the open on overnight FT reporting around a potential delay to QT; however, this was modest in nature and has since given way to marked pressure following BoE labelling it as "inaccurate". The overall complex is pressured, with Gilts lagging though Bunds are in close proximity and below 136.00 post poor 7yr-supply and ahead of ECB speak. Stateside, UTS have been following their peers directionally though magnitudes are more contained overall pre-data/Fed speak; yield curve mixed, overall. Commodities WTI and Brent December contracts are softer on the session and gave up earlier gains as the DXY creeps higher throughout the European morning. Spot gold is flat around the USD 1,650/oz mark in a USD 10/oz range – but still under its 10 and 21 DMAs at 1,673.56/oz and 1,668.63/oz. LME metals are mostly lower amid the recent rise of the Dollar, whilst Rio Tinto forecasted annual iron ore shipments at the lower end of guidance and sees further downside risks to demand as the global economy slows. White House is reportedly planning an oil reserve release announcement this week with a release of another 10mln-15mln bbls in an effort to balance markets and keep prices from climbing, according to Bloomberg. Note, this would come from part of a previously announced 180mln bbl sale announced earlier in the year UAE supports Saudi Foreign Ministry's statement regarding the OPEC+ decision and fully stands with Saudi Arabia in its efforts to support energy stability and security, according to the state news agency cited by Reuters. Geopolitics US Commerce Department issued a temporary denial order against Ural Airlines for operating in apparent violation of US export controls on Russia, according to Reuters. Ukraine President Zelenskiy says there is no space left for negotiations with Russian President Putin, via Reuters. Russia's Kremlin, when asked if Russia's nuclear umbrella extends to annexed territories, says all the territories are parts of Russia and their security is provided as with all other Russian territories, via Reuters. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said Japan is to impose additional sanctions against North Korea, according to Reuters. Officials revealed that China recruited dozens of former British military pilots to teach Chinese armed forces how to defeat western warplanes and helicopters in a “threat to UK interests”, according to Sky News's Deborah Haynes. US Event Calendar 09:15: Sept. Capacity Utilization, est. 80.0%, prior 80.0% 09:15: Sept. Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1% 09:15: Sept. Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.2% 10:00: Oct. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 43, prior 46 16:00: Aug. Total Net TIC Flows, prior $153.5b 16:00: Aug. Net Foreign Security Purchases, prior $21.4b Central bank speakers 14:00: Fed’s Bostic Takes Part in Workrise Panel Discussion 17:30: Fed’s Kashkari Discusses the Economy DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap We’ve discussed recently how we shouldn’t underestimate just how much the UK’s recent woes have impacted global markets. Correlation doesn’t equal causality, but the UK news has again seemed to heavily influence global markets over the last 24 hours after the UK government officially announced one of the biggest U-turns in political history and ditched the bulk of what remained of their mini-budget. However the risk momentum was also helped by a view that earnings season has starting relatively well versus beaten up expectations. Even overnight the UK is moving global markets again as reports from the FT that the BoE is going to delay QT at around 5am this morning have pushed equities futures over a percent higher with S&P 500 (+1.95%) and NASDAQ 100 (+2.17%) contracts soaring. This follows a big session yesterday with the S&P 500 (+2.65%) and the STOXX 600 (+1.83%) both posting strong advances that were led by the more cyclical sectors. Tech stocks were one of the big outperformers, with the NASDAQ (+3.43%) and the FANG+ Index (+4.83%) seeing even stronger advances, whilst banks were another outperformer with those in the S&P 500 up +3.48% in their 4th consecutive advance. The moves were also supported by some positive corporate news, with Lufthansa raising their full-year forecasts whilst Bank of America saw trading revenue beat expectations and net interest income rise to a record in Q3, a common theme among banks benefitting from heightened market volatility and rising policy rates. Bank of America joins the other large US banks to report with JPMorgan (+5.94% since releasing earnings), Citi (+1.44% since), Wells Fargo (+3.68%), and Morgan Stanley (-2.75%) all having reported the last few days. That comes as earnings season is moving into full flow, with today’s releases including Netflix, Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson. We’ve had 38 S&P companies report so far, and while major financials have grabbed a lot of the headlines there have been a number of key corporate reporters including consumer staples Walgreens (+3.32% since their earnings), health care provider United Health Group (+2.38% since reporting), food and beverage retailer PepsiCo (+6.24% since reporting), and airline Delta (+6.61%). The breadth of reporters should expand with the major US banks largely now in the rear-view mirror. Back to the UK and there was an increasing sense of what was coming yesterday, with the first reversal happening two weeks ago as they U-turned on the abolition of the top 45% rate of income tax. Then on Friday we had a second reversal as PM Truss announced that corporation tax would go up after all, in line with the previous government’s plans. But yesterday saw Chancellor Hunt announce that almost everything else would be going as well, including the planned cut in the basic rate of income tax to 19% from April 2023, which will instead be kept at 20% indefinitely. It’s clear the UK are now desperately trying to claw back their market credibility, as not only have the government reversed course on most of the tax cuts, but they also said they’d revisit the scale of their energy support package as well. Previously, energy prices were set to be capped at £2,500 per year for the average household over the next two years. But the government are now saying that will only go up until April 2023, and after that they’d review what support would be given instead, and were aiming to “design a new approach that will cost the taxpayer significantly less than planned”. Furthermore, the government’s statement implied there was more to come in the fiscal statement on October 31, as it said that government departments “will be asked to find efficiencies within their existing budgets”, and that there’d be “further changes” on fiscal policy “to put the public finances on a sustainable footing”. UK assets surged on the back of the announcements, with sterling +1.66% higher versus the US dollar after having been as much as +2.38% up, just as yields on 10yr UK gilts tumbled by -35.7bps to 3.96%. In fact, apart from September 28 when the Bank of England began their intervention, that’s the largest daily decline in the 10yr gilt yield since the Conservatives won a surprise victory in the 1992 general election, so we are still experiencing unprecedented volatility. Meanwhile, sterling (+0.31%) is trading higher again this morning ($1.1393) on the FT story that QT is set to be delayed. Back to yesterday and the declines in real yields were even more pronounced than nominals, with the 10yr real yield down by -47.9bps on the day, which again is the largest daily move since the BoE intervention began. That said, even with the recent declines, the spread of UK 10yr yields over German bunds is still wider than it was prior to the mini-budget at +169bps, which points to the fact that investors are still charging a larger premium for holding gilts, even with the recent U-turns. Sovereign bonds rallied with Gilts in Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (-7.7bps), OATs (-8.8bps) and BTPs (-13.3bps) all moving lower on the day. Those declines were seen across maturities, and came as we also had a further decline in both US and European natural gas futures that left both at their lowest levels since the summer. In Europe, they were down by a further -13.26% yesterday, which leaves them at a 4-month low of €123 per megawatt-hour, with mild weather supporting storage levels. Treasury yields initially rallied in lock step with European yields, reaching a rally of -11.1bps shortly after the New York open. Once Europe called it a day, however, yields steadily marched higher to close the day roughly unchanged (-0.6bps) and back above 4%. There wasn’t any specific catalyst of higher 10yr yields, other than perhaps US-based investors are more focused on the Fed and inflation outlook than on UK financial instability. The strength in US equities throughout the day probably also contributed to a stronger growth perception in the US, driving the +4.3bps steepening in 2s10s that we saw today. This morning in Asia, the UK is back influencing Treasuries as 10yr UST yields have gone from flattish to around -4.5bps lower after the FT BoE headlines. Asian stock markets are also higher with the Nikkei (+1.52%), the Hang Seng (+1.61%), Kospi (+0.99%) stronger still on the FT/BoE headlines. Elsewhere, Chinese shares are lagging with the Shanghai Composite (+0.17%) and the CSI (+0.08%) edging up after declining earlier. We were meant to get the Q3 GDP release and a slew of other economic data from China overnight, but we found out yesterday that it was being delayed. The unusual move comes as the ruling Communist Party is holding its twice-a-decade event i.e., 20th National Congress. So far, no date for a rescheduled release has been given. Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) October meeting revealed that the central bank’s surprise decision to ease back to a 25bps hike instead of the 50bps hikes was “finely balanced” as the board members wanted to monitor the impact of its tightening on household spending in an uncertain environment. The minutes also highlighted that further rate hikes are likely required over the period ahead with the pace and timing to be determined by data. Elsewhere, New Zealand’s consumer prices rose +7.2% y/y in the third quarter, much higher than the market expected +6.6% increase, thus cementing the prospect of further aggressive hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). In spite of the positive market moves over the last 24 hours, there was further bad news on the DM data side, with the New York Fed’s Empire index showing a third consecutive monthly contraction at -9.1 (vs. -4.3 expected). The prices paid index also ticked up relative to last month, reaching 48.6. Meanwhile in Canada, data from the central bank showed that inflation expectations over 1 and 2 years ahead were continuing to rise, although 5-year ahead expectations moved lower. That came as their business outlook indicator in Q3 fell to 1.69, which is the biggest quarterly decline in that indicator since Q2 2020 as the pandemic’s impact was fully felt. To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include industrial production and capacity utilisation for September, as well as the NAHB housing market index for October. Over in Europe, there’s also the German ZEW survey for October. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Makhlouf and Schnabel, as well as the Fed’s Bostic and Kashkari. Finally, earnings releases include Goldman Sachs, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and Lockheed Martin. Tyler Durden Tue, 10/18/2022 - 08:00.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytOct 18th, 2022

Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon, and other experts are bracing for painful inflation, recessions, and market turmoil around the world. Here"s why they"re so worried.

Years of carefree spending and borrowing, the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and misguided policies could end in disaster, experts say. Ray Dalio.Brian Snyder/Reuters Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon, and other market experts are deeply worried about the global economy. They fear stubborn inflation, surging unemployment, shrinking economies, and tumbling asset prices. Here's why they're so concerned about the world today, and what they expect to happen next. Several of the world's shrewdest investors, executives, academics, and analysts are sounding the alarm on the global economic outlook. They're warning that countries face a devastating combination of brutal inflation, shrinking output, plunging asset prices, and soaring unemployment.They blame years of debt-fueled buying and borrowing, pandemic disruptions, and Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. They also point the finger at misguided thinking from the central banks and governments in charge of shepherding the global economy.The easy-money eraFreewheeling government spending and near-zero interest rates over the past decade have spurred people to rack up debt, "Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini has said. That easy money lifted the prices of stocks, houses, cryptocurrencies, and other assets to unsustainable highs, he believes. The problem got worse during the pandemic, when authorities rushed to mail out stimulus checks, buy corporate bonds, and bail out struggling businesses, Roubini said. Insatiable demand met widespread shortages as the COVID-19 virus choked production and disrupted supply chains, and that boosted inflation. Later, the Russia-Ukraine conflict led to cuts in oil and gas supply, and rises in energy prices — which drove food and fuel prices higher, darkening the outlook for European growth.The upshot? US inflation spiked to a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. The Federal Reserve responded by hiking interest rates from virtually zero in March to a range of 3% and 3.25% today, and has signaled they could approach 5% next year.Currency swings and market mayhemThe Fed's aggressive hikes and a robust US economy have propeled the US dollar to a 20-year high, as investors swap their pounds and yen for greenbacks in pursuit of larger returns.Goldman Sachs' Kamakshya Trivedi recently explained why that's a problem. The dollar's breathless rise has put pressure on other central banks to shore up their currencies by hiking rates too — even if their country has tougher economic challenges or lower inflation than the US, he said.Its strength is causing debt crises in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and other vulnerable developing countries with large amounts of dollar-denominated debt, Goldman's head of global foreign-exchange research noted. Trivedi emphasized the dollar's gains are reflected in falls for rival currencies. The British pound recently tanked after the new UK government unveiled tax cuts that threaten to drive up inflation and the national debt.The yields on long-dated UK government bonds (gilts) also soared. That spurred the Bank of England to launch and repeatedly expand an emergency bond-buying program, as it feared a credit crunch and the potential collapse of UK pension funds.Economic woes in Europe and ChinaEurope is similarly under the cosh. People there are bracing for an energy crisis this winter, while worries grow about a prolonged recession and the political and fiscal impact of the Russia-Ukraine war.Meanwhile, the continent's big banks like Credit Suisse have been forced to defend their solidity, fanning fears of a Lehman Brothers-style collapse that could spark a financial crisis."The euro, are you kidding me?" Ray Dalio said this week. "We can go on about Europe's situation. Wow. Oh my God."The Bridgewater Associates founder also sounded the alarm on another key global player — China."China has a debt crisis they've allowed to go too far into the bones of the economy," he said, singling out its heavily leveraged real estate sector.The billionaire investor underscored the supply disruptions caused by the country's ongoing lockdowns in response to virus breakouts.The US may be in a better position, but its economy still faces a grim future. The country is "the center of a financial bubble" and "most at risk from liquidity being pulled," Bridgewater co-chief investor Greg Jensen recently said.Jensen expects a tumble in US asset prices, stubborn inflation, slower growth, and a deep, prolonged recession.A gloomy global outlookThese challenges mean that if the Fed raises rates too high, it "would slay inflation, but create a global depression," Bill Gross has warned."Recent events in the UK, cracks in the Chinese property-based economy, war and a natural-gas freeze in Europe, and a super-strong dollar accelerating inflation in emerging-market economies, point to the conclusion that today's 2022 global economy in no way resembles Volcker's in 1979," the billionaire cofounder of bond giant Pimco recently said.Gross was suggesting the remedies of the 1980s won't work today — Paul Volcker is a former Fed chair who conquered runaway US inflation in that decade.Another Wall Street heavyweight, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, has underscored the likely global fallout from mounting pressures. He has said those forces will likely plunge the US economy into a recession within the next nine months.Roubini has gone even further, saying the global stage is set for "the mother of stagflationary debt crises over the next few years." He was referring to economies shrinking for several quarters, battling stubborn inflation, and suffering higher unemployment.The economics professor at NYU Stern also said central banks are "damned if they do and damned if they don't," as they could trigger a wave of defaults and crush economic growth if they tighten their policies further, but might face double-digit inflation if they maintain their easy-money approach.Government debtDavid Einhorn echoed that sentiment this week, noting that governments are already highly leveraged and may struggle to service their debts, finance bailouts, and shore up their economies if markets crash and a global recession takes hold."The systemic risks have built up in the government bond markets all around the world," the Greenlight Capital boss said. "When you have a down cycle is when these things tend to metastasize."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytOct 17th, 2022

Futures Tumble, Briefly Drop Below 3,600, Despite Latest Panic Pivot By Bank of England

Futures Tumble, Briefly Drop Below 3,600, Despite Latest Panic Pivot By Bank of England Another day, another rout, only this time there was an even more ominous twist. It's shaping up as another risk off day on Wall Street, and around the world, as stocks fell... again... as usual... pressured by the relentless rout in the chip sector (following Friday's decision by the Biden administration to put fresh curbs on China’s access to US semiconductor technology) which sent chip giant Taiwan Semi conductor plunging 8.3%, its biggest drop on record, and wiped out $240 billion in market cap from the global semiconductor sector, while US futures extended their Monday slump amid general amid fears of persistently high inflation two days ahead of the CPI report, and signs that company earnings were set to disappoint. A gauge of the dollar climbed to the highest this month before reversing.  But the ominous twist today is that for the second time in two weeks, the BOE stepped in the market, this time boosting its "temporary" QE to add linker bonds to its usual array of gilt purchases to tackle what it called “fire-sale dynamics.”  While this helped lift gilts and cable (if only briefly), its effect on futures was truly transitory, with the Emini dumping as much as 1% to a low of 3584, falling below the key level of 3,600, before stabilizing uneasily just above 3,600. It was down 0.6% at last check, while Nasdaq future were 0.5% lower as of 7:45am ET. In US premarket trading, Meta Platforms slipped after it was cut to neutral from overweight by Atlantic Equities, which sees the social media giant’s growth outlook increasingly challenged by the strengthening macro headwinds and growing competition for advertising dollars; it was also added by Russia to a list of terrorist and extremist organizations. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Zoom shares decline 3% in premarket trading as Morgan Stanley cut the recommendation on the stock to equal-weight from overweight, saying the company’s online business needs to normalize post Covid for the firm to unlock the “tremendous value” in its enterprise platform. Roblox falls as much as 3.8% in premarket trading after Barclays initiates coverage with an underweight rating, saying the gaming platform’s daily users are “fairly saturated” and growth is decelerating post Covid. Amgen shares rise 1.7% in premarket trading after being upgraded to overweight from equal-weight by Morgan Stanley, which highlighted the “unappreciated upside” in the biopharma’s mid-term pipeline. Lululemon shares rise 1.3% in premarket trading after Piper Sandler upgraded the athletic apparel brand to overweight from neutral, noting the company’s momentum in the broker’s Spring 2022 Taking Stock With Teens survey. Elastic drops 2.4% in US premarket trading as Wells Fargo initiates at underweight, giving the application software company its only negative analyst rating. Leggett & Platt shares fell 8.6% in postmarket trading on Monday after the company lowered sales guidance for the full-year. Piper Sandler reduced the price target to a Street low, noting that the company’s speciality foam business is not only losing share but has been “disproportionately impacted” by weakness in the bed-in-a-box part of the market. The mood remains extremely fragile ahead of Thursday’s US inflation data, with the case for another 75 basis-point rate hike likely to be strong if the reading comes in higher than than forecast. Fed officials until now show little sign they are in a mood to pause the rate-hiking cycle despite the potential hit to economic growth. “We have not seen the impact of tightening,” Michael Kelly, head of the multi-asset team at PineBridge Investments told Bloomberg TV. “That lies ahead and when we see that, it’s another leg down for risk assets.” Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened further missile attacks on Ukraine after hitting Kyiv and other cities in the most intense barrage of strikes since the first days of its invasion. “It’s little wonder investors enter the week in a dreary mood, especially with headlines from Ukraine signaling a further escalation in geopolitical tensions,” said Christopher Smart, chief global strategist at Barings. European stocks also declined with the Euro Stoxx 50 falling 0.9%. Energy, chemicals and miners are the worst performing sectors. IBEX outperforms peers, dropping 0.7%, FTSE MIB lags, dropping 1.4%. Here are the biggest premarket movers: Qiagen shares rise as much as 7.2%, the most intraday since November 2021, after a Dow Jones report that Bio-Rad Laboratories is in talks to combine with the German diagnostics firm. Airbus shares rise as much as 1.3% after September deliveries of 55 aircraft seen as “an encouraging data point,” compatible with the jetmaker reaching its target of 700 deliveries this year, Deutsche Bank analysts write in a note. Dustin shares rise as much as 10%, the most since January, after the Swedish computer and technology retail company reported 4Q results which Handelsbanken said included “solid” organic growth helped by its corporate and public sector unit. Boozt rises as much as 9%, the most since August, after Danske Bank upgraded the Swedish online fashion retailer to buy from hold, seeing an attractive share after recent weak performance despite a “more resilient business model than before.” Mining and energy stocks decline more than the broader European market on Tuesday as metals and crude slide amid concerns over weaker demand due to global economy slowdown and strengthening dollar. BP dropped as much as 3.4%, and Shell -2.4% European semiconductor stocks fall for a third day, following a rout in shares of Asian chip powerhouses including Samsung and TSMC. ASML declined as much as -2.8% Givaudan shares are down as much as 8.3%, reaching the lowest value since March 2020, after the company reported weaker-than-expected 3Q sales. Analysts are worried about soft growth in North America and a miss by the taste and wellbeing division amid a weakening consumer backdrop. Ferrexpo shares decline as much as 11% in early trading on Tuesday, most in three weeks, after the iron- ore maker said production has been temporarily suspended at group’s operations in Ukraine due to limited power supply. Asian equities headed for a third day of declines amid a continued selloff in semiconductor shares, with markets in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan declining as trading resumed after holidays. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2.2%, with a technology sub-gauge falling more than 4%. Chip-related stocks in the region declined in the wake of fresh curbs on China’s access to US technology. The Hang Seng Tech Index also fell more than 3% amid the geopolitical tensions. Read: Chipmaker Rout Engulfs TSMC, Samsung With $240 Billion Wiped Out Hong Kong’s benchmark gauge slipped after a state-owned newspaper endorsed China’s Covid-Zero policy for the second day in a row, quashing investors’ hopes for a relaxation around the upcoming Communist Party congress. Chinese shares edged higher. Rising geopolitical risks are also weighing on sentiment, after Russia bombarded Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Meanwhile, investors remain on edge amid the prospect of more aggressive monetary tightening ahead of the release of US consumer-inflation data on Thursday. “Thin volumes, high volatility and uncertainty, and a bearish sentiment globally means investors will overreact on the downside to any negative news,” Olivier d’Assier, head of APAC applied research at Qontigo, wrote in a note. Several data releases this week, as well as a further escalation in the war in Ukraine, may trigger further selling, he added. The MSCI’s Asian stock benchmark is once again approaching the lowest level since April 2020, having fallen more than 4% over a three-day period. Japanese stocks fell, dragged by losses in technology shares amid concerns on earnings and the impact of new US curbs on chip-related exports to China. The Topix fell 1.9% to close at 1,871.24, while the Nikkei declined 2.6% to 26,401.25. Out of 2,168 stocks in the Topix, 285 rose and 1,833 fell, while 50 were unchanged. The market was closed for a holiday Monday. Tokyo Electron slid more than 5% after the Biden administration put fresh curbs on Chinese access to US chip technology. Tech sentiment was also hurt by a forecast cut at Yaskawa Electric, while Fast Retailing dropped more than 3% ahead of its earnings report this week.  “With around 30% of Japanese tool makers’ orders coming from China, we think we are now likely to see cancelations hurting backlogs just when the chip market is facing a major oversupply,” said Amir Anvarzadeh, a strategist at Asymmetric Advisors Ltd., adding that Tokyo Electron would be among the hardest hit. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for fifth day as commodity currencies fell versus the greenback. Aussie and loonie were the worst G-10 performers as global growth concerns prompted traders to seek haven in the dollar; China signaled it may retain its strict Covid Zero policy, hitting stocks and commodities including iron ore The euro halted a four-day decline. German bonds advanced while Italy’s yield premium over Germany rose, paring some of Monday’s sharp drop amid doubts about Germany’s support for joint EU debt issuance. UK bonds edged higher in a bull-steepening move after the Bank of England expanded its financial stability operations, adding inflation-linked debt to its purchases, while pausing the sale of corporate bonds. The focus is on the result of the BOE’s daily bond-buying operation, a sale of 2051 linkers by the government and Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments later. The pound traded weaker versus the euro and was little changed against the dollar. Options traders are adding downside exposure in the pound again as cable retreats toward the $1.10 handle. The yen traded in a narrow range amid caution the authorities will step in to prevent further currency losses. Government bonds fell in tandem with overseas peers. In rates, Treasuries pared a decline and the curve bear steepened after the panicking BOE expanded its QE operation. The 10-year yields pated Monday’s gilt-led losses led by gains in UK bond market, after earlier touching 4%, while the 30-year yield hit its highest level since 2014; yields on two-year Treasuries rose to the highest since 2007. US cash market, closed Monday’s for bank holiday, remains cheaper vs Friday’s close by as much as 6bp at long end. US 10-year yield is higher by ~4bp at 3.92%, steepening 2s10s by ~5bp vs Friday’s close, with 5s30s also ~5bp wider on the day; gilts bull-steepen with UK 2-year yields richer by 11bp on the day. As reported earlier, Monday’s record slide in gilts was arrested after BOE said inflation-linked notes will be included in this week’s remaining buybacks. US auctions resume at 1pm New York time with $40b 3-year note sale, followed by 10- and 30-year sales Wednesday and Thursday In commodities, WTI drifts 2.6% lower to trade near $88.74. Spot gold falls roughly $3 to trade near $1,665/oz. Most base metals are in the red.  Bitcoin hovers around the USD 19,000 mark whilst Ethereum remains under 1,300. Looking to the day ahead now, it's another quiet event calendar with just the NFIB’s small business optimism index from the US for September out today (92.1, above 91.6 expected). From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Cunliffe, the ECB’s Lane and Villeroy, as well the Fed’s Mester. Finally, the IMF will be publishing their latest World Economic Outlook. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.7% to 3,599.25 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 386.58 MXAP down 2.0% to 137.94 MXAPJ down 2.1% to 445.19 Nikkei down 2.6% to 26,401.25 Topix down 1.9% to 1,871.24 Hang Seng Index down 2.2% to 16,832.36 Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 2,979.79 Sensex down 0.7% to 57,610.70 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,644.99 Kospi down 1.8% to 2,192.07 Brent Futures down 1.5% to $94.71/bbl Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,667.26 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 113.21 German 10Y yield little changed at 2.30% Euro little changed at $0.9708 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Record inflation and the danger of winter energy shortages are sinking confidence in the euro-zone economy. As the hard data gradually worsen, the hawks who currently steer ECB policy have only a limited opportunity to deliver more big hikes UK unemployment fell unexpectedly to the lowest since 1974 as people dropped out of the workforce at a record rate. The government said 3.5% of adults were looking for work in the three months through August, down from 3.6% the month before. Economists had expected no change From Japanese pensions and life insurers to foreign governments and US commercial banks, where once they were lining up to get their hands on US government debt, most have now stepped away. And then there’s the Federal Reserve, which a few weeks ago upped the pace that it plans to offload Treasuries from its balance sheet to $60 billion a month Credit Suisse Group AG is the last of 16 banks to face a US class-action lawsuit accusing it of conspiring with others to rig the foreign exchange market A more detailed breakdown courtesy of RanSquawk APAC stocks traded with a negative bias as several markets returned from the long weekend and reacted to the recent bearish themes with tech stocks hit due to the US’s chip tech curbs on China and with global sentiment not helped by the heightened geopolitical concerns after Russia’s missile assault on Ukrainian cities. ASX 200 was indecisive after mixed data and with the index subdued by underperformance in tech and energy. Nikkei 225 declined with the reopening of Japan’s borders overshadowed by tech sector woes which also saw heavy selling pressure on South Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with notable losses in tech and casino stocks in which the latter suffered after domestic trips in China during the National Day Golden Week holiday fell by 18% Y/Y, while sentiment was also dampened by increased lockdown concerns as China tightened COVID controls ahead of the Communist Party congress including the rollout of mandatory biweekly mass testing in Shanghai. Top Asian News China Securities Daily suggested that China may cut RRR in Q4. People's Daily said China must stick to zero-COVID policy which is sustainable and key to stabilising the economy. China's Xi'an announced on Tuesday to suspend onsite classes for some students amid the COVID-19 flare-ups, other areas including culture venues, tourist attractions and cinemas also suspended services on Tuesday, according to Global Times. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1075 vs exp. 7.1038 (prev. 7.0992) Japanese PM Kishida said the BoJ needed to maintain policy until wages increase, while he urged companies that increase prices to raise pay also and said the government will prepare measures to help companies raise salaries, according to FT. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they are closely watching FX moves with a strong sense of urgency and will respond to excess FX moves, according to Reuters. Japan's MOF top currency official Kanda said they are always ready to take necessary steps against FX volatility and said he can make a decision on FX intervention anywhere even from an aeroplane, according to TBS. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said they are closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency; to take appropriate steps on excess FX moves, via Reuters. Japan is to draw up economic measures before the end of October, according to NHK. RBI likely sold USD in spot and received forwards via state-run banks, according to traders cited by Reuters. RBNZ Governor Orr said in the Annual Report that there is more work to do and increasing the OCR is the most effective way we can reduce inflation and support maximum sustainable employment over the coming years, consistent with our monetary policy remit. European bourses are once again underwater as the selling pressure from yesterday has bled through into today’s session. Sectors in Europe are mostly softer but Retail is the standout outperformer. Stateside, US futures are also on the backfoot with the e-mini S&P Dec contract dipping below 3600 in a continuation of yesterday’s losses. Top European News Barclaycard UK consumer spending rose 1.8% Y/Y in September which was the slowest pace since February 2021. Germany's government rejected the report about Chancellor Scholz backing joint EU debt for loans to ease the energy crisis and said "such plans are not known in the government", according to a source cited by Reuters. German Chancellor Scholz said Germany will discuss inflation reduction act with the US; there must be no customs war, via Reuters. EU trade commissioner said it is working on a new temporary state aid framework which will allow countries to support firms hit by high energy bills; adds that decoupling from China is not an option for EU companies, via Reuters. UK Chancellor Kwarteng will need to plug a GBP 60bln hole in the public finances with either spending reductions or a tax raid, according to the IFS via the Telegraph. BoE said it intends to purchase index-linked Gilts, effective from Oct 11-14, and announced a temporary pause to corporate bond sales. Linker purchases will act as a backstop to restore order; purchases are time limited. Many pension funds feel that the BoE intervention in gilts market should be extended to October 31st "and possibly beyond", according to the Pension Fund Trade Body cited by Reuters. Brookfield, DigitalBridge Said to Weigh Vantage Stake Bid European Gas Rises on Supply Risks as Russia Escalates War Apollo Makes Quick Gains on CLOs Dumped by UK Pension Funds Credit Suisse Is Final Holdout in FX Rigging Case Going to Trial Discounted Fuel, Grains Make Taliban Boost Trade With Russia FX DXY is firmer on the day with a current intraday high of 113.50 (vs a 112.95 low) G10s are mixed vs the USD with the CAD and AUD the laggards, in-fitting with losses across oil and base metals respectively. USD/JPY held within a 145.86-50 range (vs YTD high of 145.90) following more jawboning from Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno. Fixed Income Schatz and Bund futures both retreated to new intraday lows and the latter is just under Monday’s 135.83 session base, at 135.81. The 10yr UK debt future also recoiled to a deeper Liffe low (92.06) before bouncing and thereby remaining ‘comfortably’ off yesterday’s 91.46 trough. US Treasuries are narrowly mixed and side-lined awaiting the return of cash traders, more Fed speakers and USD 40bln 3 year issuance. Commodities WTI and Brent front-month futures are weaker intraday amid several factors including technicals, a firmer Dollar, alongside further bearish COVID-related headlines emanating from China. Spot gold is relatively flat despite the firmer Dollar, but remains under its 21 DMA (1,674/oz) as the clock ticks down to US CPI on Thursday. LME metals meanwhile are mostly lower with 3M copper softer on the day amid the stronger Buck, sullied risk tone, and with the Chinese COVID restrictions an ongoing tail risk with the metal moving on either side of USD 7,500/t. Iranian State News Agency denied reports of worker strikes at Abadan refinery, according to Reuters. Geopolitics US President Biden and G7 leaders will hold a virtual meeting today to discuss their commitment to support Ukraine, according to the White House. US Democrat Senator Menendez threatened to block US cooperation with Saudi amid its deepening ties with Russia, while he ripped into the decision to cut oil output and effectively accused Saudi of fuelling Russia's war machine, according to Business Insider. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said direct conflict with the US and NATO is not in Moscow's interests but noted that Russia will take adequate countermeasures in response to the West's growing involvement in the Ukraine conflict, according to RIA. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia does not threaten anyone with the use of nuclear weapons, via Al Jazeera US Event Calendar 06:00: Sept. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, 92.1, est. 91.5, prior 91.8 Central Banks 12:00: Fed’s Mester Speaks to Economics Club of New York DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap It's been another rough 24 hours for markets, with a major European bond selloff after Bloomberg reported that German Chancellor Scholz would support issuing joint EU debt to deal with the energy crisis. At this stage it’s just a report without formal confirmation and we’ll have to see how it might be executed, so we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves. However, the details from the story suggested that Scholz had signalled an openness to common borrowing at last week’s EU summit in Prague, so long as the money was distributed in the form of loans rather than grants. So perhaps the common borrowing announced during the pandemic will prove to have been the first of many rather than a one-off. If the last decade was all about how Europe/Germany could get away with as little fiscal spending as they could, this decade seems to be all about spending. This continues to change the macro dynamics of the continent completely from where it was, especially with regards bond yields and the depo rate. We should note however, that after Europe closed, Reuters suggested that a German government source rejected the story that Berlin backed such joint EU debt for this purpose. So we'll see if there is any retracement in yields this morning as the initial market reaction was substantial. Yields on 10yr bunds surged +14.3bps on the day (+11bps after the story hit) to close at 2.33%, thus leaving them at their highest closing level since 2011. There were similar moves across the continent, with yields on 10yr OATs up +11.5bps to a post-2012 high of 2.91%. However, the big outperformer were Italian BTPs where yields actually fell on the day following the news, with the spread between 10yr BTPs over bunds down by -21.3bps to 230bps. That was a big change from earlier in the session, when the Italian spread had been on track to close at its widest level since April 2020 as nerves built ahead of Italian draft budget proposals. However it was a case of anything Europe could do, the UK could do worse, as the 10yr Gilt yield soared by +23.6bps on the day to 4.46% after the BoE announced fresh measures (see below) which seemed to scare investors of what might be out there rather than reassured them. The moves were eerily reminiscent of the late-September turmoil after the mini-budget, with rises in yields taking place across all maturities, with the 30yr yield up by an even-larger +28.8bps. It’s clear that LDI trades are still creating some tension in the market. If nominal yield moves weren’t enough for you, the movements in real yields were even more astonishing, with the 10yr real yield up by +64.1bps on the day to close at 1.23%, which is its highest closing level since 2009. In the meantime, sterling (-0.28%) lost ground against the US Dollar for a 4th consecutive session, closing at $1.1055, and implied sterling-dollar volatility over the next month has also been creeping back up to near its levels shortly after the mini-budget. Those movements for gilts came in spite of numerous announcements from UK policymakers yesterday as they sought to deal with the mini-budget’s legacy. First, the Bank of England said that as part of their ongoing intervention to purchase long-dated government gilts, they would increase the maximum auction sizes for this week, which comes ahead of the planned end to the operation on Friday. In addition, they announced the launch of a “Temporary Expanded Collateral Repo Facility”, which is designed to help ease pressures on liability driven investment funds. Second, we heard that the government were bringing forward the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan to October 31 from November 23, which will be published alongside a forecast from the independent OBR. And finally, it was confirmed that James Bowler would be the new Permanent Secretary to the Treasury (the most senior civil servant in the department). Bowler is currently Permanent Secretary at the Department for International Trade but has over 20 years’ experience working in the Treasury, and the appointment was widely reported as a U-turn by PM Truss to reassure markets. That’s because Truss had pledged when running for PM that she would combat the “Treasury orthodoxy”, but has instead opted for someone with lengthy experience in the department. Over in the US, Treasury markets weren’t actually open given the Columbus Day holiday, but Fed funds futures showed that investors were continuing to price out the pivot speculation from early last week, with the rate priced in by December 2023 up by a further +6bps to 4.46% over the last 24 hours and up from 4% at the pivot lows a week ago. In Asia, yields on the 30-year UST (+10.38 bps) rose to 3.95%, the highest since 2014, whereas the 10yr yield (+11bps) has broken through the 4.0% threshold as we go to press. This all follows a fresh set of comments from Fed officials, including Chicago Fed President Evans, who said that “I see the nominal funds rate rising to a bit above 4.5% early next year and then remaining at this level for some time while we assess how our policy adjustments are affecting the economy”. Vice Chair Brainard spoke late in the session but didn't really move the needle too much but her comment that the Fed should be cautious seemed to lean a little dovish even though she covered both sides of the argument. Henry in my team wrote about the five "Fed pivot" trades that markets have tried to encourage in the last few months in his weekly "Mapping Markets" yesterday. See here for more. Whilst bonds were having another bad day, there wasn’t much respite for equities either, with the S&P 500 (-0.75%) moving lower for a 4th consecutive session, which leaves it less than 1% away from its closing low for the year at end-September. The 6% rally in the first 2 and a bit days of the quarter seems a lifetime away rather than 3 business days ago. The more interest-sensitive tech stocks bore the brunt of the declines, with the NASDAQ down -1.04% to close at its lowest level since July 2020, whilst the FANG+ index (-1.17%) of megacap tech stocks has now shed around -43% since its all-time peak back in November 2021. Backin Europe the tone was also a fairly negative one, with the STOXX 600 (-0.40%) losing ground for a 4th day in a row as well. Asian equity markets are mostly trading lower this morning as concerns continue about the Fed’s tightening cycle alongside Washington’s semiconductor export controls on China. As I type, the Nikkei (-2.34%) and the Kospi (-2.29%) are sharply lower after resuming trading following a holiday with the Hang Seng (-1.43%) also sliding. Bucking the trend are Chinese equities with the Shanghai Composite (+0.40%) and the CSI (+0.49%) both moving higher. However, concerns over rising Covid-19 cases in China are still hovering in the background. In overnight trading, US stock futures point to further losses with contracts tied to the S&P 500 (-0.45%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.40%) both trading in negative territory. Early morning data showed that Japan’s current account surplus (+58.9 billion yen) shrank to its smallest amount on record for the month of August as import prices surged compared to July’s surplus of +229.0 billion yen. In geopolitical news, the G-7 nations have called for an emergency meeting (videoconference) today to discuss the escalating war in Ukraine in the wake of Russia's revenge attacks over the last 24 hours. In addition to this, the G7 will also discuss energy issues in an attempt to bring down gas prices by creating a buyer’s alliance. To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK labour market data for August and September, Italy’s industrial production for August, as well as the NFIB’s small business optimism index from the US for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Cunliffe, the ECB’s Lane and Villeroy, as well the Fed’s Mester. Finally, the IMF will be publishing their latest World Economic Outlook. Tyler Durden Tue, 10/11/2022 - 08:07.....»»

Category: worldSource: nytOct 11th, 2022