Warning Shot Fired!

Judge Rules Arizona Ranch Owner Will Stand Trial For Alleged Shooting Death Of Illegal Immigrant Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times, A 73-year-old Arizona man will go on trial for the alleged second-degree murder of an illegal immigrant on his ranch property in January. Justice of the Peace Emilio Velasquez determined at an evidentiary hearing in Nogales Justice Court on Feb. 24 that there was probable cause against George Alan Kelly to proceed to a trial in Superior Court. Police initially charged Kelly with first-degree murder in the Jan. 30 shooting death of 43-year-old Mexican national Gabriel Cuen-Butimea, based mainly on inconsistent statements that Kelly made during an interview.  The incident allegedly occurred on Kelly’s ranch located near Nogales, a southern border city of 20,837 in Arizona’s Santa Cruz County. George Alan Kelly enters court for his preliminary hearing in Nogales Justice Court in Nogales, Ariz., on Feb. 22, 2023. (Mark Henle/The Arizona Republic via AP, Pool) During the Feb. 24 court hearing, the prosecution announced that Kelly would face a reduced charge of second-degree murder, which doesn’t require proof that the alleged crime was premeditated.  Prosecutors didn’t elaborate on the downgraded felony charge. Kelly faces two additional charges of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. Kelly’s attorney, Brenna Larkin, asked the judge to grant a continuance since the state’s case had “changed drastically” with new disclosures, requiring time for her to prepare a response.  “In my experience, it is routine to grant continuances,” Larkin said. “Mr. Kelly should not be treated any differently.” “Frankly, I am amazed at the state’s opposition [to a request for a continuance],” she said. The judge denied the defense’s motion and the hearing moved forward to determine whether there was sufficient evidence that Kelly committed second-degree murder. Kelly, wearing a blue long-sleeved shirt and a vest, was present in the courtroom at the Feb. 24 hearing. He remains free after posting a $1 million surety bond on his property. Murder or Self-Defense? The defense says that Kelly and his wife were having lunch in their kitchen when they heard a single gunshot at about 2 p.m. on Jan. 30.  In court documents, Kelly told police that he went out onto his porch and saw a horse running in his direction and then a group of 10 to 15 men in camouflage clothing, wearing backpacks, and armed with AK-47 assault rifles.  Kelly claimed he fired multiple warning shots from his AK-47 over the heads of the men when they pointed their weapons at him. The men then scattered and ran off his property. During the alleged confrontation, Kelly called a U.S. Customs and Border Patrol liaison on his cell phone to report the incident.  An initial search of his property by Border Patrol agents and sheriff’s deputies failed to locate any of the men or the deceased. Later in the day, Kelly texted the Border Patrol liaison and left a voice message saying the matter was “worse than he could imagine” and that he “might have shot at something.” Kelly reportedly told police he discovered the body of a man after he went to check on his horses around 5 p.m. that day and used a flashlight to mark the location of the body.  A second search of the property found Cuen-Butimea lying face down with a single gunshot wound in his back. Wanda Kelly (C), wife of George Alan Kelly, accused of first-degree murder in the shooting death of an illegal immigrant on Jan. 30, leaves the Nogales Justice Center in Nogales, Ariz., following a hearing on Feb. 22, 2023. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times) Police were issued a warrant to search Kelly’s house; during a second search, they discovered Kelly’s AK-47, ammunition, and at least eight shell casings on and around his porch.  During the defense cross-examination of a Santa Cruz County detective, Larkin alluded to a federal agent who described the location near Kelly’s ranch as a “high crime area” used for drug trafficking and criminals who steal drugs from the cartels. The detective testified that during an interview, he told Kelly it was time to “come forward with the truth” and that the charge of first-degree murder rested largely on Kelly making “inconsistent statements.” “I arrested him based on the totality of the circumstances,” the detective testified. Prosecutors called a man identified only by the initials D.R.R., who testified that he was with Cuen-Butimea on Jan. 30 when Kelly allegedly started shooting at the group.  The witness, wearing a blue hoodie and medical mask to conceal his identity, testified using a Spanish interpreter. “[The group was] walking when this gentleman shot at us,” the witness testified. “I saw Gabriel hold his chest.” He added that then, Cuen-Butimea rolled his eyes and fell to the ground sideways. “I ran. I couldn’t help him.” The witness testified that the gunshots, about 15 in total, sounded like rounds from an AK-47 rifle. He said he thought “the government” had shot at him as the group fled back across the border fence and into Mexico. Witness Testimony ‘Not Credible’ Before the judge’s ruling on probable cause, Larkin said there was “no reason” to believe the “absolutely incredible” testimony of the witness and said that police found no shell casings in the quantity matching the witness description. “It’s not conceivable that Mr. Kelly aimed from his porch, somehow saw this person, and made this long, difficult shot,” she said. “Obviously, there is a dead body here,” she added. “There needs to be probable cause that this crime took place [and that] this specific person committed this crime.” Larkin asked the judge to “do the right thing” and find no probable cause in the case. In the meantime, a fundraising campaign on GiveSendGo had raised $344,460 toward Kelly’s legal defense. Shannon Pritchard, who created the campaign, wrote that the original goal was $250,000, calling the amount raised “astounding, miraculous, a blessing to the Kelly family beyond belief.” “It is a tragedy that a simple farmer, who should be protected by the government has been abandoned and had to defend himself. That is bad enough, but the government that caused this, now wishes to persecute him,” Pritchard wrote.  A Change.org petition that urges the charges against Kelly be dropped collected 11,526 signatures, toward a goal of 15,000. At a House Judiciary Committee hearing on the border crisis in Yuma, Arizona, on Feb. 23, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb said he thought the $1 million bond set for Kelly was “a little excessive” based on what he has seen. Cochise County Sheriff Mark Dannels talks about the fentanyl crisis at the southern border in Arizona on Feb. 16, 2023. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times) “Just from what I’ve seen, it seemed a little excessive for a guy who doesn’t have a criminal history and claiming self-defense and is claiming he didn’t even shoot him.” Lamb told The Epoch Times that a first-degree murder charge seemed unusual for the case, given the evidence presented. “I heard the term premeditated. Premeditated first-degree is pretty hard to prove. From what I’ve heard, it’s going to be tough. But I don’t know the case.” Santa Cruz County Chief Sheriff’s Deputy Geraldo Castillo told The Epoch Times that the department has “not investigated a crime of this magnitude [previously] involving a migrant and a rancher.” “The investigation continues. There’s a lot still ongoing. I will not be able to comment at this time,” Castillo said. While prosecutors argued that Kelly shot Cuen-Butimea without provocation, Larkin said the case has been “highly political” from the start. “This essentially lit a match over an incredibly intense political powder keg and, predictably, there was an explosion,” Larkin said at a court hearing on Feb. 22. Kelly declined to comment to The Epoch Times at the probable cause hearing on Feb. 24. Tyler Durden Mon, 02/27/2023 - 19:40.....»»

At least 18 Republicans have shown they're interested in the 2024 presidential nomination, even though Trump has already declared he's running. Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an event at Mar-a-Lago on November 15, 2022 in Palm Beach, Florida.Joe Raedle/Getty Images Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy are the only Republicans who have made a '24 run official. But many others have been floating the possibility of entering the GOP contest. From Pence to DeSantis, here's how Republicans are laying the groundwork for presidential runs. It's beginning to look a lot like 2016. Former President Donald Trump, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy are the only Republicans so far who have formally announced a 2024 presidential run, but numerous others are signaling that they're toying with the same idea. They're doing all the things they're supposed to do to test their chances: Visiting early primary states, writing books, showing up on the Sunday shows, campaigning with other Republicans ahead of the 2022 midterms, and weighing in publicly on President Joe Biden's policies — and even Trump's latest controversies. The next step will be hiring teams in Iowa and New Hampshire, Doug Heye, a longtime GOP aide and strategist, told Insider."You have got a stable of people who are essentially putting themselves all in the starting gates and all have their own timetable about when and if they decide to run," he said. December would be a "frustrating month" for political watchers because "no one is going to move that much," said Kristin Davison, vice president and general consultant at Axiom Strategies. But hopefuls would be floating what she called "trial balloons" — in which they publicly raise the prospect of a run to see how donors and the press will react. Whoever seizes the nomination will likely face Biden, though he has yet to formally declare his candidacy. But, Heye said, "it's a real possibility" that the GOP lineup will large, much like it was in 2016.The stakes for losing the nomination aren't all bad, even if Republicans might come out of it with an unforgettable Trump nickname. After all, one of the people running for president could get chosen as the running mate or get a seat on the new president's Cabinet.And there are other perks to formally seeking the White House, such as raising one's profile and having a better shot at the presidency during a future cycle. Candidates could also sell a lot more books or leave politics to get a prime TV or radio show. "It's a long, difficult process," Heye said, "and you're more likely to lose than not."Trump's legal, political, and personal liabilities have been piling up in the last month, leading many in the GOP to say the party needs not just a fresh face but to be led by a candidate who can actually win. Insider identified 18 people who have or could seek the Republican nomination in 2024, including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Tim Scott of South Carolina who are up for re-election this cycle and will therefore be in campaign mode anyway. Each will have to effectively answer the "why I'm running for president" question and find their lane in the party, which will inevitably include defining — or redefining — their relationship with Trump. "I don't think you can discount any of them at this point," Heye said. "It's too early to determine who outside of Trump is a frontrunner." Scroll through to see the lawmakers who have either already declared or are potentially gearing up for run:Former UN Ambassador Nikki HaleyFormer UN Ambassador Nikki Haley during a news conference in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday, October 26, 2022.Matt Rourke/AP PhotoHaley, 51, made a run official on February 15. During her campaign launch in Charleston, South Carolina, she portrayed herself as the leader of a younger generation that could win elections. "If you're tired of losing, put your trust in a new generation," she said. Her experiences in public office give her the coveted pairing of having both executive and foreign policy chops, which are often viewed as crucial to the presidency. Aside from Trump and Pence, few other contenders would have such a profile. As a woman of Indian descent, she could also help bring in suburban women voters who graduated from college and expand the GOP coalition among people of color. She embraced her unique background during her campaign kickoff, wearing suffragette white and and calling herself "a brown girl growing up in a black-and-white world." Haley has had a turnaround from last year, when she said she wouldn't run for president if Trump were to seek the White House in 2024. She started our her career working in the private sector, joining her family's clothing business before leading the National Association of Women Business Owners.She served in the South Carolina House for three terms then was the state's governor for six years. In that time Haley delivered the GOP response to Obama's 2016 State of the Union Address.She pushed for the removal of the confederate flag from the South Carolina capitol after a gunman killed nine Black people at Emanuel Church in Charleston. Also as governor, Haley would not support a bill requiring transgender people to use the restroom that corresponded with the gender on their birth certificate. But in 2021 she wrote a commentary in the National Review saying transgender inclusion in sports was an "attack on women's rights."Haley was UN Ambassador under Trump for two years, and successfully pushed for the US to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem and defended Trump's decision to do so.In 2019 she published a memoir, "With All Due Respect: Defending America with Grit and Grace." Haley campaigned and fundraised in high-profile races during the 2022 midterms, including in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Haley told the National Republican Committee the day after the January 6 riot that Trump was "badly wrong" in his speech to supporters and that his "actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history." Tech entrepreneur Vivek RamaswamyRamaswamy founded the biopharmaceutical company Roivant Sciences.Fox NewsRamaswamy, 37, made a run official on February 22. Ramaswamy is an Indian-American tech entrepreneur who co-founded Strive Asset Management and serves as its executive chairman. He also founded the biopharmaceutical company Roivant Sciences."We're in the midst of a national identity crisis. Faith, patriotism & family are disappearing. We embrace one secular religion after another — from wokeism to climatism — to satisfy our deeper need for meaning," he said in a video announcing his campaign. "Yet we cannot even answer what it means to be an American." —Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) February 22, 2023 Ramaswamy wrote "Woke, Inc.: Inside Corporate America's Social Justice Scam," and "Nation of Victims: Identity Politics, the Death of Merit, and the Path Back to Excellence."The New Yorker  nicknamed Ramaswamy the "CEO of Anti-Woke Inc." for his stance against environmental, social, and governance investing. In February he delivered a speech about ESG at Trump National Doral, near Miami, before the exclusive and influential Council for National Policy at Trump Doral, where DeSantis was also a key speaker. Former Rep. Liz Cheney of WyomingRep. Liz Cheney, a Republican of Wyoming, campaigned with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat of Michigan, at an Evening for Patriotism and Bipartisanship event on November 1, 2022 in East Lansing, Michigan.Bill Pugliano/Getty ImagesCheney, 56, is the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney and one of Trump's toughest Republican critics.She voted to impeach Trump after the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, and served as vice chair of the House select committee investigating Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.Cheney's actions have come at a cost under the heavy weight of Trump's ire. House Republicans punished her by stripping her of her leadership post, and she lost her US House seat to Trump-backed GOP challenger Harriet Hageman during the state's August primary.But she hasn't been deterred. Cheney said on NBC's "Today" that she would do "whatever it takes" to keep Trump out of the White House in 2024, including "thinking about" running for president herself. "I wouldn't be surprised to see her run for president," Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah told Insider in August. Cheney voted with Trump on policy when he was in office, and remains a conservative, telling the Reagan Foundation and Institute in June that she believes "deeply in the policies of limited government, of low taxes, of a strong national defense." But Cheney said she sees a breaking point with the Republican Party, telling the Texas Tribune Festival in September that she would leave the GOP if Trump became the 2024 nominee.This could mean she'd run for president as an Independent. Already, she has shown she's willing to campaign against Republicans who falsely deny that Biden won the 2020 presidential election.This year, Cheney converted her House campaign finance committee into an anti-election denier leadership PAC called The Great Task. The PAC spent $500,000 on a TV ad in Arizona that urged voters to reject Republicans Kari Lake and Mark Finchem, who were running for governor and secretary of state, respectively. During the 2022 midterms, Cheney endorsed incumbent Democratic Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia. Both won their races. "We had to make sure that we prevented election deniers from taking power," she told The Washington Post's Global Women's Summit in November. Many outsiders see long odds for Cheney, though a poll conducted in Utah found she could be a top contender there. Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger of IllinoisRep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., speaks as the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol holds a hearing in Washington, DC, on July 21, 2022.AP Photo/J. Scott ApplewhiteLike Cheney, Kinzinger, 44, has spent much of the last year focused on the January 6 committee and drawing Trump's ire. He's the only other Republican on the House committee investigating the riot, and will be retiring from his seat at the end of this Congress, after six terms. Kinzinger told HuffPost in April that he "would love" to run against Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, but more for the fun of it than to actually win."Even if he crushed me, like in a primary, to be able to stand up and call out the garbage is just a necessary thing, regardless of who it is," he said. "I think it'd be fun."In a move that could be signaling he's planning on doing just that, Kinzinger in early 2021 launched his anti-election denier leadership PAC, called Country First. Kinzinger sponsored several bills that became law, including measures to prevent opioid addiction and a bill to help veterans with medic training transition to EMT work as civilians. Kinzinger served in the Air Force and remains a pilot in the Air National Guard. Sen. Ted Cruz of TexasSen. Ted Cruz, a Republican of Texas, speaks at a rally for Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker on November 10, 2022 in Canton, Georgia.Megan Varner/Getty ImagesCruz, 52, was the last Republican standing against Trump during the 2016 presidential nomination and had even announced that he'd pick former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina as his running mate. But Cruz — whom Trump nicknamed "Lyin' Ted" — lost following a nasty primary in which Trump levied highly personal attacks against the senator, including disparaging his wife's looks and falsely suggesting that Cruz's father had something to do with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Once Trump was in office, however, Cruz was one of the president's  biggest defenders. He voted to overturn the 2020 election results in Arizona and Pennsylvania and helped to secure Trump's acquittal in his second impeachment trial. In recent months, Cruz has been spending time in New Hampshire and campaigned with retired football star Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff. While in the Senate, Cruz led the successful effort to zero out the unpopular fine on the uninsured created by the Affordable Care Act.More recently, Cruz used Ketanji Brown Jackson's Supreme Court confirmation hearing to score points for a potential 2024 run, questioning her about school curriculum on race. Before coming to Congress, Cruz was solicitor general in Texas, a role that involves arguing cases before the Supreme Court. When Insider asked whether Trump's latest missteps had provided an opening for him to jump into the 2024 presidential race, Cruz chuckled a bit before laying out what sounded like a near-term agenda. "I think the Senate is the battleground … and I'm going to do everything I can to lead the fight right here," Cruz told Insider before launching into a tirade about his mounting frustration with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's decision making. He made no specific mention of 2024, but also didn't work in the word "no" anywhere.Cruz told the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas that he'll seek reelection in Texas in 2024 when his term is up, though state law allows him to run for both offices at the same time.Former Gov. Chris Christie of New JerseyFormer New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition Saturday, November 19, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoChristie, 60, is famously said to have missed his moment for the White House because he didn't run for president when he was getting a lot of attention as New Jersey's governor in 2012, and instead fizzled out in 2016 when faced with Trump and numerous other contenders. But that hasn't stopped him from weighing another go at it. As recently as October, during an appearance on "Real Time with Bill Maher," Christie confirmed that he was considering a 2024 run.  In the last 18 months, Christie has been prominently involved in midterm campaigning and on the same speech circuit as other GOP hopefuls, including the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. He also put out a book in 2021, titled "Republican Rescue: Saving the Party From Truth Deniers, Conspiracy Theorists, and the Dangerous Policies of Joe Biden." Christie served two terms as a Republican governor in a blue state where Democrats controlled the legislature. In that role, he expanded Medicaid under Obamacare and passed bail reform.But he got flak over a handshake with then-President Barack Obama during Hurricane Sandy relief efforts, and was hurt politically after members of his administration created traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge.Christie became a lobbyist in 2020, when he had several healthcare clients but cut ties a year later, according to the lobbying disclosure database, in what could be a sign that he's lining up for a run.   Today, Christie blames Trump for the GOP's losses the last three election cycles and spent months saying Republicans "have to be the party of tomorrow, not the party of yesterday" if they ever want to win another election. His tone on Trump is a stunning turnaround for a man who was one of Trump's closest outside advisors when he was in the White House and was even on the shortlist to be Trump's chief of staff. Christie turned on Trump after January 6, saying the president violated his oath of office. More recently, he told The New York Times that Trump's candidacy was "untenable" and that the former president had had "poor judgement" after he dined at Mar-a-Lago with white supremacist and Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes. He also told the Washington Examiner that Republicans "fail the leadership test" when they don't call out Trump. Gov. Ron DeSantis of FloridaRepublican gubernatorial candidate for Florida Ron DeSantis speaks during an election night watch party at the Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on November 8, 2022.Giorgio VIERA / AFP via Getty ImagesDeSantis, 44, has an enviable mantle for the presidency in the Florida governor's office — and he's making the most of it. He famously and unapologetically reopened Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic, before federal health officials said he should. He banned certain teachings on race in workplaces and schools, and flew unsuspecting migrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. DeSantis also signed a contentious parental involvement and sex ed bill into law that critics call "Don't Say Gay." Instead of backing down over the outcry, he punished Disney for threatening to repeal it.Then there were the historic tax cuts in Florida with promises of more as well as viral videos bashing what he calls the "corporate media." All of these actions have portrayed the governor as a fighter. That's not the only part of his public persona on display. Often in tow is his beautiful, young family. His former newscaster wife, Florida's first lady Casey DeSantis, has been instrumental in his rise. To the New York Post, pictures of the DeSantis family on Election Night was "DeFuture." Others see a conservative JFK. But the politician DeSantis most often gets compared to is Trump. Numerous news profiles have described DeSantis as "Trump without the baggage," or as a more disciplined Trump. Yet after leaning on Trump during his first gubernatorial victory in 2018, DeSantis showed he could win big on his own, scoring a historic, 20-point victory in Florida in November without Trump's endorsement.As for presidential clues, DeSantis is also out with his first memoir in February: "The Courage to Be Free: Florida's Blueprint for America's Revival." During the midterms, he extended goodwill to other Republicans by campaigning with them. Back at home, he raked in a record amount of cash for a gubernatorial race. If the GOP primary were decided today, numerous polls show, DeSantis is the only person that gets close to Trump. DeSantis, a former conservative House member, has not pledged to serve out all four years of his second term. All of that has angered Trump. He has called DeSantis "Ron DeSanctimonious" and threatened to release damaging information about the governor. DeSantis has refused to punch back at Trump publicly, instead blaming the media and saying, "When you're leading, when you're getting things done, you take incoming fire."South Dakota Gov. Kristi NoemSouth Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, Texas, on July 11, 2021.Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesNoem, 51, has been on a Trump-related roller coaster ride as of late. In January 2021, the embattled former president tried to get her to primary fellow South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a lawmaker Trump took to calling a RINO (which stands for "Republican in name only") after Thune balked at his baseless claims of election fraud. Noem bowed out of joining Trump's revenge campaign, opting to focus on her own re-election plans. Once 2022 rolled around, she leaned hard into the GOP culture wars, promising voters that she'd bar transgender athletes from participating in women's sports, stamp out any "critical race theory" instruction in local schools, and decimate any "radical political ideologies" that annoyed her evangelical Christian base.Come July, Noem told CNN she'd be "shocked" if Trump tapped her to be his 2024 running mate. But she didn't rule out sliding into the VP slot — or mounting a challenge of her own. Since winning a second term in November, Noem has started taking on bigger foes, including the People's Republic of China. —Kristi Noem (@KristiNoem) November 30, 2022 Her state government-wide ban against the use of social media app TikTok scored her fawning interviews on conservative outlets including Fox News and Newsmax, beaming her into the homes of potential admirers who don't happen to reside in the Mount Rushmore State. Noem seems far less enthusiastic about Trump these days, telling reporters that the twice-impeached, scandal-plagued former president isn't Republicans' "best chance" at retaking the White House in 2024. She issued this prediction just days after Trump announced he was running again.  Sen. Josh Hawley of MissouriSenator Josh Hawley (R-MO) speaks during the confirmation hearing for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson on March 22, 2022.JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)Hawley, 43, has reached for the spotlight whenever possible while Congress is in session.From famously saluting the January 6 protestors on the day of the violent siege at the Capitol to holding Brown Jackson's feet to the fire as she raced to join the Supreme Court, the first-term lawmaker works to portray himself as the perennial outsider who's only here to shake things up. He's played up the part by voting to overturn the 2020 election results on behalf of MAGA vote-magnet Trump, butting heads with McConnell on the way the upper chamber is run, and blaming short-sighted leaders for running the party into the ground. "When your 'agenda' is cave to Big Pharma on insulin, cave to Schumer on gun control & Green New Deal ('infrastructure'), and tease changes to Social Security and Medicare, you lose," Hawley, bemoaned on Twitter following a demoralizing midterms performance by flawed GOP candidates, which he blamed on "Washington Republicanism." The potential 2024 contender followed up with some suggestions, floating an alternative vision he said would help "unrig the system."   "What are Republicans actually going to do for working people? How about, to start: tougher tariffs on China, reshore American jobs, open up American energy full throttle, 100k new cops on the street," Hawley, who was also Missouri's former attorney general, tossed out on his social media feed. Asked by Insider about his intentions of formally jumping into the 2024 presidential race, Hawley laughed out loud for a few seconds. "I hope to run for reelection to the Senate in 2024. If the people of Missouri will have me," he said. Nowhere in there did Hawley say "no." Former Gov. Larry Hogan of MarylandGov. Larry Hogan of Maryland.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesEven before the bruising 2022 midterms, Hogan, 66, was warning that Republicans couldn't continue down the path they are on. "I am not about to give up on the Republican party or America," he wrote on Twitter in early December. "None of us can. It's too important."The two-term governor who beat a 2015 cancer scare has been fired up about plotting his next act. Hogan, a centrist Republican, is already making the rounds in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. A nonprofit group aligned with him reported raising $2 million in 2021, some of which was spent on "supporter acquisition" and "audience building." And Hogan recently scored some face time with GOP mega donors at this year's Republican Jewish Coalition leadership meeting — mentioning to political reporters covering the event that he and other potential 2024 hopefuls were there because "maybe there's a little blood in the water." Trump was notably absent at the event, but did video-conference in. As governor, Hogan signed a gun control bill into law and has said that while he opposed abortion, he wouldn't move to gut the state's guarantee on reproductive rights. During the COVID-19 pandemic he instituted a statewide mask mandate, then lifted restrictions in May 2021. While he has yet to formally declare a 2024 run, Hogan has begun billing himself as a "commonsense conservative" who GOP voters sick of losing may want to consider."I think there are 10 people who want to be the next Donald Trump, and I think there may be a different lane," Hogan said while stumping in Manchester, New Hampshire, adding, "I'm going to do everything I can to get the country back on track." He cast a write-in vote for Reagan in the 2020 election and called for Trump to be impeached or resign after January 6. Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of ArkansasArkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson attends the National Governors Association summer meeting, Friday, July 15, 2022, in Portland, Maine.Robert F. Bukaty/AP PhotoHutchinson, 72, hasn't been shy about criticizing Biden or Trump. After Trump's 2024 announcement, he said the former president's "self-indulging message promoting anger has not changed," and also disavowed the Fuentes and Ye meeting at Mar-a-Lago.Hutchinson has taken at least five trips to Iowa through America Strong & Free, the nonprofit of which he's the honorary chairman and spokesperson."I am seriously looking at a run in 2024 because America and the Republican Party are not in the best place," he said in a statement provided to Insider. "I know how to get us back on track both in terms of leadership and facing the challenging issues of border security, increased violent crime and energy inflation." He'll make a decision in January, he told KARK.As governor for the last eight years, he has pushed to make the state a leader in computer science, and signed several tax cuts into law, including lowering the state income tax rate from 7% to 4.9%. Hutchinson also signed bills into law blocking businesses from requiring customers and workers to show proof of COVID-19 vaccinations, and blocked state and local officials from obligating masks — a move he later said he regretted. He asked state lawmakers to create a carve-out for schools, but the Arkansas House rejected the proposal. While he signed an abortion ban into law in 2019 that took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, he said on CNN that he personally believes in exceptions for rape and incest."Many out there appreciate a 'consistent conservative,' even one they don't agree with all the time," Hutchinson told Insider. "I am not interested in the 'outrage of the day,' and I am committed to using my consistent conservative principles to guide me and our nation on important policy decisions." Hutchinson began his government career as a US attorney for the Western District of Arkansas under President Ronald Reagan, then went on to serve in the US House for three terms. President George W. Bush tapped him to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration, after which he served as undersecretary in the Department of Homeland Security. He has criticized Biden on illegal immigration, inflation, student loan forgiveness, and said on CNN that the president's September speech about democracy "singled out a segment of Americans and said basically they're our enemy."Hutchinson also has the distinction of being especially press friendly at a time when numerous Republicans have copied Trump's style of lashing out against journalists. "The media plays an important role in our democracy," Hutchinson told Insider. "I've never shied away from tough questions, and I have always been willing to defend my positions and conservative principles with the hard questions coming from the press."Former Vice President Mike PenceFormer Vice President Mike Pence speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition on Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPence, 63, has begun to distance himself from his former boss, while also promoting his new book, "So Help Me God." He told ABC's "World News Tonight" that Trump "decided to be part of the problem" by not immediately calling off the insurrectionists during the January 6 riot, after he declined to help invalidate Biden's lawful win. Pence also pushed back against Trump on WVOC in South Carolina after he called for terminating the Constitution, and came out forcefully after Trump had dinner with Fuentes."President Trump was wrong to give a white nationalist, an anti-Semite, and a Holocaust denier a seat at the table," he said on November 28. An adviser to the former vice president told Insider that, should Pence decide to run, the team has discussed several policy areas to differentiate himself, including Trump's bipartisan criminal justice reform bill, the First Step Act, and that he'll continue to be "very outspoken on the issue of life."In contrast, Trump didn't mention his three Supreme Court picks when he announced his 2024 presidential run, even though they helped overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that previously guaranteed a national right to abortion. Pence wouldn't have to worry about name ID during a presidential run. Still, his new book and a campaign would allow him to reintroduce himself to voters by talking about his work in the US House and then as governor of Indiana. He already has made numerous trips to early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina. Further, he'll be able to amplify policies that carried his fingerprints during the Trump administration, including his oversight of the US's pandemic response.Pence was a sought-after midterm surrogate, traveling to dozens of states. In May, he went to Georgia to help incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp beat Trump-backed primary challenger David Perdue.Pence's vision for the future of the party is laid out in his Freedom Agenda and Advancing American Freedom, the nonprofit aligned with him that serves as a type of campaign in waiting. The policies include reducing mail-in voting and implementing universal school choice, which allows public education funds to pay for K-12 students to select alternatives to public schools. While Pence didn't testify before the January 6 select committee, his senior aides including former chief of staff Marc Short and legal advisor J. Michael Luttig walked investigators through some of the scenarios that led up to the attack. In November, Pence said on Fox's "Hannity" that he would make a 2024 decision after discussing it with his family during the holidays. Former Secretary of State Mike PompeoFormer Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPompeo, 59, told Chicago donors in September that he already had teams in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.His outside campaign in waiting is called Champion American Values Fund, and Pompeo has been doing press appearances to talk about his forthcoming book, "Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love." Pompeo represented Kansas in the US Congress and was also former CIA director under Trump. After the end of the administration, he lost weight, which sparked speculation that he was interested in a White House run. Similar to Haley, Pompeo would enter the contest with a foreign policy background. He has openly criticized Biden, including after the president's September speech on protecting democracy. "He essentially said if you're pro-life or you're opposed to a certain set of policies, you're a threat," Pompeo told the New England Council's "Politics and Eggs" breakfast.  Biden, he said at the event, could be summed up as having "woke ideas, weak resolve, and waffling leadership."Trump should not have taken classified documents to Mar-a-Lago, he said, but added that the "raid on Mar-a-Lago was indecent and improper." Pompeo told conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt in November that Trump's announcement wouldn't affect whether he decides to run for president, adding that he'd make a determination in the spring. "We need more seriousness, less noise, and leaders who are looking forward," Pompeo said, "not staring in the rearview mirror claiming victimhood." Sen. Marco Rubio of FloridaWilfredo Lee/AP PhotoRubio, 51, has come out hot after cruising to a third term in November, castigating GOP leaders for totally blowing the midterms. "We have a historically unpopular Dem President, record inflation, a violent crime wave & total chaos at the border & not only did we fail to win a majority, we lost a seat. And the Senate GOP response is going to be to make no changes?" Rubio fumed in a December 7 Twitter post. His anger hadn't abated when Insider caught up with him at the US Capitol. "I don't know how you come back from what we have just encountered and conclude that the status quo and business as usual is how we want to proceed," Rubio said of the need for drastic changes within the GOP. While conceding that he doesn't have "all those answers," Rubio suggested that Senate Republicans take a hard look at "the mechanics of elections, policy, the legislative agenda, and all of that." "I think that's something we should all be involved in talking about," Rubio said of the sorely needed soul searching. Rubio, who is of Cuban descent, was speaker of the Florida House before heading to Washington. He has sponsored numerous bills that have become law, including doubling the child tax credit and co-authoring the Paycheck Protection Program that helped keep small businesses afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.On top of that, he's got a powerful perch as the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee. Political operatives have credited him with helping the GOP grow its influence with Hispanic voters, NBC News reported. Asked by Insider whether he had it in him to take another run at the former president after getting clobbered by the insult-flinging Trump in 2016, Rubio said he just really needs to take a breath. "We'll have time over the holidays and into the new year to sort of focus on everything going on in my life and here in the Senate," Rubio told Insider, adding that he hasn't "really focused in on" returning to the presidential proving grounds at the moment. Perhaps voters will learn more about future plans in his forthcoming book, "Decades of Decadence." Sen. Tim Scott of South CarolinaSen. Tim Scott, a Republican of South Carolkina, speaks at a fundraiser in Anderson, South Carolina on August 22, 2022.Meg Kinnard/AP Photo, FileScott, 57, hinted at a presidential bid during his midterms victory speech, even though he previously said he wouldn't run against Trump. "My grandfather voted for the first man of color to be elected as president of the United States," he said on November 8, referring to the vote his grandfather cast for Obama. "I wish he had lived long enough to see perhaps another man of color elected president of the United States. But this time, let it be a Republican and not just a Democrat. So just know: All things are possible in America."Scott, who previously served in the US House, is the only Black Republican in the Senate. He said his six-year term in the Senate beginning in January will be his last, but he hasn't ruled out a presidential run and is making all the right moves to position himself for the undertaking. Despite his own election, he has taken several trips to Iowa and spent time campaigning on behalf of other Republicans. He also released a memoir, "America, a Redemption Story: Choosing Hope, Creating Unity" and is one of the top fundraisers in the Senate — which includes support from small and online donors — even though he defended a safe seat this cycle.Major donors have contributed to Opportunity Matters Fun, a pro-Scott super PAC.Scott was among those leading the push for the successful passage of the bipartisan First Step Act and his measure to create Opportunity Zones that bring private investments into economically distressed communities was part of the 2017 tax reform law. He garnered national interest after delivering the GOP response to Biden's address to Congress in April. Afterward, McConnell said the senator represented "the future of the Republican Party." Scott has been open about the racism he has faced over the course of his life. "I get called Uncle Tom and the n-word by progressives, by liberals," he said in response to Biden's address. He has shared that police have pulled him over numerous times, despite him not violating any traffic laws. He sat down with Trump at the White House to discuss systemic racism and publicly called on Trump to call back certain statements he made on race. Haley, who was South Carolina governor at the time, appointed Scott to the Senate in 2013 after the seat opened up. Miami Mayor Francis SuarezTaylor Hill / Contributor Getty ImagesSuarez, 45, confirmed in October that he's considering a presidential run."It's something that I would consider given the right circumstances and given the right mood of the country," Suarez said at a Punchbowl News event. Miami has been getting a lot of attention given the surge of people moving to Florida — and tech companies and crypto startups in particular headed to Miami under Suarez's encouragement. He even told Twitter CEO Elon Musk that he should consider relocating the company's headquarters from San Francisco.Suarez's office sent over a list of accomplishments for the mayor, saying the city was No. 1 in job and wage growth, and had 1.4% unemployment. The Financial Times called Miami "the most important city in America." The mayor made historic increases to the city's police department, increased funding on climate-resistant infrastructure, and passed a rental tax credit for seniors. Suarez didn't vote for Trump during the 2020 election and in the 2018 gubernatorial race in Florida he voted for Democrat Andrew Gillum over DeSantis. But Suarez said Trump also has been kind to him. The two spoke at a wedding recently, he said, and Trump told him he was the "hottest politician in America after him.""I don't know if he meant physically hot or if he meant I was getting a lot of buzz," Suarez said. "But he was very nice." Suarez is of Cuban descent and leads the National Conference of Mayors. When asked about how he might stand out in a presidential race, Suarez said he might be able to speak to "a variety of minority communities that are going to be important if Republicans want to grow their base for a generation." Gov. Chris Sununu of New HampshireGov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire.Jon Cherry/Getty Images for ConcordiaSununu, 48, was just reelected to a fourth term in New Hampshire, where governors are reelected every two years and there are no term limits. "I haven't ruled anything in or out," he told Politico's "Playbook Deep Dive" podcast when asked about running for president in 2024. "I haven't ruled out a fifth term. I haven't ruled out running for higher office."Sununu is a centrist Republican who has the distinction of being in favor of abortion rights, at a time when many states are banning abortion. He came close to running for the US Senate in 2022, but told the Washington Examiner that other senators told him their main job was to be a "roadblock" in office — and he wasn't interested in that.Sununu also called Trump "fucking crazy" at the Gridiron dinner, a journalism event. "Let's stop supporting crazy, unelectable candidates in our primaries and start getting behind winners that can close the deal in November," Sununu said in November at Republican Jewish Coalition meeting.He told the Washington Examiner after the midterms that there should be new GOP leadership — not just in the White House but inside the Republican National Committee."Did they achieve on the level of results that we all thought we were going to get?" he asked. "No. So, why would we stick with the same team assuming we're going to get a better result?"Sununu is part of a political dynasty. His father was governor of New Hampshire who then went on to work in the George H.W. Bush administration as chief of staff. His brother was in the US House and US Senate. Gov. Glenn Youngkin of VirginiaGov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia.AP Photo/Steve Helber, FileYoungkin, 56, tried his hand at playing kingmaker in over a dozen 2022 gubernatorial contests and mostly came up short. The newly-minted Republican who rocketed to stardom in late 2021 by keeping Virginia purplish with his electrifying win over Democratic fixture Terry McAuliffe tried to work that same Trump-light magic into contests all around the country. The result: only four of the 15 Republican gubernatorial candidates Youngkin got involved with won their races. It's unclear whether Youngkin had any effect on the reelection bids of blowout winners like Kemp or Noem.By the same token, it's debatable whether he could have dragged Lake, Michigan's Tudor Dixon, or any of the other 2020 election deniers across the finish line given their full-on embrace of Trumpism. While he remains reluctant to badmouth the embattled former president, Youngkin clinched his 2021 win by keeping Trump at bay while still reaching out to the MAGA base. Trump, on the other hand, has tried to take full credit for Youngkin's win and lashed out at the newcomer for not being more appreciative. Trump's already working on trying to clip a Youngkin presidential bid from ever taking wing, panning him and DeSantis as ingrates who have no chance of beating him. Trump also reverted to his old tricks after the politically damaging 2022 midterms flop, hitting Youngkin with a bizarre, racist rant on Truth Social. Given that Virginia only allows governors to serve non-consecutive terms, it makes sense for Youngkin to seek opportunities elsewhere.The Washington Post reported that Youngkin spent part of his summer huddling with Republican mega donors in New York. And while he remains mum on any official plans for 2024, Politico said Youngkin's putting in place the types of fundraising groups a presidential candidate would want to have at the ready.Youngkin is a former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group. As governor, his first official action was to sign an executive order prohibiting Virginia schools from teaching "critical race theory." More recently, he's been pushing to reimburse individuals and businesses who paid fines for violating state COVID-19 restrictions under his Democratic predecessor.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

At least 17 Republicans have shown they're interested in the 2024 presidential nomination, even though Trump has already declared he's running. Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an event at Mar-a-Lago on November 15, 2022 in Palm Beach, Florida.Joe Raedle/Getty Images Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are the only Republicans who have made a '24 run official. But many others have been floating the possibility of entering the GOP contest. From Pence to DeSantis, here's how Republicans are laying the groundwork for presidential runs. It's beginning to look a lot like 2016. Former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley are the only Republicans so far who have announced a 2024 presidential run, but numerous others are signaling that they're toying with the same idea. They're doing all the things they're supposed to do to test their chances: Visiting early primary states, writing books, showing up on the Sunday shows, campaigning with other Republicans ahead of the 2022 midterms, and weighing in publicly on President Joe Biden's policies — and even Trump's latest controversies. The next step will be hiring teams in Iowa and New Hampshire, Doug Heye, a longtime GOP aide and strategist, told Insider."You have got a stable of people who are essentially putting themselves all in the starting gates and all have their own timetable about when and if they decide to run," he said. December would be a "frustrating month" for political watchers because "no one is going to move that much," said Kristin Davison, vice president and general consultant at Axiom Strategies. But hopefuls would be floating what she called "trial balloons" — in which they publicly raise the prospect of a run to see how donors and the press will react. Whoever seizes the nomination will likely face Biden, though he has yet to formally declare his candidacy. But, Heye said, "it's a real possibility" that the GOP lineup will large, much like it was in 2016.The stakes for losing the nomination aren't all bad, even if Republicans might come out of it with an unforgettable Trump nickname. After all, one of the people running for president could get chosen as the running mate or get a seat on the new president's Cabinet.And there are other perks to formally seeking the White House, such as raising one's profile and having a better shot at the presidency during a future cycle. Candidates could also sell a lot more books or leave politics to get a prime TV or radio show. "It's a long, difficult process," Heye said, "and you're more likely to lose than not."Trump's legal, political, and personal liabilities have been piling up in the last month, leading many in the GOP to say the party needs not just a fresh face but to be led by a candidate who can actually win. Insider identified 17 people who could seek the Republican nomination in 2024, including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Tim Scott of South Carolina who are up for re-election this cycle and will therefore be in campaign mode anyway. Each will have to effectively answer the "why I'm running for president" question and find their lane in the party, which will inevitably include defining — or redefining — their relationship with Trump. "I don't think you can discount any of them at this point," Heye said. "It's too early to determine who outside of Trump is a frontrunner." Scroll through to see the lawmakers who have either already declared or are potentially gearing up for run:Former UN Ambassador Nikki HaleyFormer UN Ambassador Nikki Haley during a news conference in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday, October 26, 2022.Matt Rourke/AP PhotoHaley, 51, made a run official on February 15. During her campaign launch in Charleston, South Carolina, she portrayed herself as the leader of a younger generation that could win elections. "If you're tired of losing, put your trust in a new generation," she said. Her experiences in public office give her the coveted pairing of having both executive and foreign policy chops, which are often viewed as crucial to the presidency. Aside from Trump and Pence, few other contenders would have such a profile. As a woman of Indian descent, she could also help bring in suburban women voters who graduated from college and expand the GOP coalition among people of color. She embraced her unique background during her campaign kickoff, wearing suffragette white and and calling herself "a brown girl growing up in a black-and-white world." Haley has had a turnaround from last year, when she said she wouldn't run for president if Trump were to seek the White House in 2024. She started our her career working in the private sector, joining her family's clothing business before leading the National Association of Women Business Owners.She served in the South Carolina House for three terms then was the state's governor for six years. In that time Haley delivered the GOP response to Obama's 2016 State of the Union Address.She pushed for the removal of the confederate flag from the South Carolina capitol after a gunman killed nine Black people at Emanuel Church in Charleston. Also as governor, Haley would not support a bill requiring transgender people to use the restroom that corresponded with the gender on their birth certificate. But in 2021 she wrote a commentary in the National Review saying transgender inclusion in sports was an "attack on women's rights."Haley was UN Ambassador under Trump for two years, and successfully pushed for the US to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem and defended Trump's decision to do so.In 2019 she published a memoir, "With All Due Respect: Defending America with Grit and Grace." Haley campaigned and fundraised in high-profile races during the 2022 midterms, including in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Haley told the National Republican Committee the day after the January 6 riot that Trump was "badly wrong" in his speech to supporters and that his "actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history." Former Rep. Liz Cheney of WyomingRep. Liz Cheney, a Republican of Wyoming, campaigned with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat of Michigan, at an Evening for Patriotism and Bipartisanship event on November 1, 2022 in East Lansing, Michigan.Bill Pugliano/Getty ImagesCheney, 56, is the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney and one of Trump's toughest Republican critics.She voted to impeach Trump after the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, and served as vice chair of the House select committee investigating Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.Cheney's actions have come at a cost under the heavy weight of Trump's ire. House Republicans punished her by stripping her of her leadership post, and she lost her US House seat to Trump-backed GOP challenger Harriet Hageman during the state's August primary.But she hasn't been deterred. Cheney said on NBC's "Today" that she would do "whatever it takes" to keep Trump out of the White House in 2024, including "thinking about" running for president herself. "I wouldn't be surprised to see her run for president," Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah told Insider in August. Cheney voted with Trump on policy when he was in office, and remains a conservative, telling the Reagan Foundation and Institute in June that she believes "deeply in the policies of limited government, of low taxes, of a strong national defense." But Cheney said she sees a breaking point with the Republican Party, telling the Texas Tribune Festival in September that she would leave the GOP if Trump became the 2024 nominee.This could mean she'd run for president as an Independent. Already, she has shown she's willing to campaign against Republicans who falsely deny that Biden won the 2020 presidential election.This year, Cheney converted her House campaign finance committee into an anti-election denier leadership PAC called The Great Task. The PAC spent $500,000 on a TV ad in Arizona that urged voters to reject Republicans Kari Lake and Mark Finchem, who were running for governor and secretary of state, respectively. During the 2022 midterms, Cheney endorsed incumbent Democratic Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia. Both won their races. "We had to make sure that we prevented election deniers from taking power," she told The Washington Post's Global Women's Summit in November. Many outsiders see long odds for Cheney, though a poll conducted in Utah found she could be a top contender there. Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger of IllinoisRep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., speaks as the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol holds a hearing in Washington, DC, on July 21, 2022.AP Photo/J. Scott ApplewhiteLike Cheney, Kinzinger, 44, has spent much of the last year focused on the January 6 committee and drawing Trump's ire. He's the only other Republican on the House committee investigating the riot, and will be retiring from his seat at the end of this Congress, after six terms. Kinzinger told HuffPost in April that he "would love" to run against Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, but more for the fun of it than to actually win."Even if he crushed me, like in a primary, to be able to stand up and call out the garbage is just a necessary thing, regardless of who it is," he said. "I think it'd be fun."In a move that could be signaling he's planning on doing just that, Kinzinger in early 2021 launched his anti-election denier leadership PAC, called Country First. Kinzinger sponsored several bills that became law, including measures to prevent opioid addiction and a bill to help veterans with medic training transition to EMT work as civilians. Kinzinger served in the Air Force and remains a pilot in the Air National Guard. Sen. Ted Cruz of TexasSen. Ted Cruz, a Republican of Texas, speaks at a rally for Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker on November 10, 2022 in Canton, Georgia.Megan Varner/Getty ImagesCruz, 52, was the last Republican standing against Trump during the 2016 presidential nomination and had even announced that he'd pick former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina as his running mate. But Cruz — whom Trump nicknamed "Lyin' Ted" — lost following a nasty primary in which Trump levied highly personal attacks against the senator, including disparaging his wife's looks and falsely suggesting that Cruz's father had something to do with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Once Trump was in office, however, Cruz was one of the president's  biggest defenders. He voted to overturn the 2020 election results in Arizona and Pennsylvania and helped to secure Trump's acquittal in his second impeachment trial. In recent months, Cruz has been spending time in New Hampshire and campaigned with retired football star Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff. While in the Senate, Cruz led the successful effort to zero out the unpopular fine on the uninsured created by the Affordable Care Act.More recently, Cruz used Ketanji Brown Jackson's Supreme Court confirmation hearing to score points for a potential 2024 run, questioning her about school curriculum on race. Before coming to Congress, Cruz was solicitor general in Texas, a role that involves arguing cases before the Supreme Court. When Insider asked whether Trump's latest missteps had provided an opening for him to jump into the 2024 presidential race, Cruz chuckled a bit before laying out what sounded like a near-term agenda. "I think the Senate is the battleground … and I'm going to do everything I can to lead the fight right here," Cruz told Insider before launching into a tirade about his mounting frustration with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's decision making. He made no specific mention of 2024, but also didn't work in the word "no" anywhere.Cruz told the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas that he'll seek reelection in Texas in 2024 when his term is up, though state law allows him to run for both offices at the same time.Former Gov. Chris Christie of New JerseyFormer New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition Saturday, November 19, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoChristie, 60, is famously said to have missed his moment for the White House because he didn't run for president when he was getting a lot of attention as New Jersey's governor in 2012, and instead fizzled out in 2016 when faced with Trump and numerous other contenders. But that hasn't stopped him from weighing another go at it. As recently as October, during an appearance on "Real Time with Bill Maher," Christie confirmed that he was considering a 2024 run.  In the last 18 months, Christie has been prominently involved in midterm campaigning and on the same speech circuit as other GOP hopefuls, including the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. He also put out a book in 2021, titled "Republican Rescue: Saving the Party From Truth Deniers, Conspiracy Theorists, and the Dangerous Policies of Joe Biden." Christie served two terms as a Republican governor in a blue state where Democrats controlled the legislature. In that role, he expanded Medicaid under Obamacare and passed bail reform.But he got flak over a handshake with then-President Barack Obama during Hurricane Sandy relief efforts, and was hurt politically after members of his administration created traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge.Christie became a lobbyist in 2020, when he had several healthcare clients but cut ties a year later, according to the lobbying disclosure database, in what could be a sign that he's lining up for a run.   Today, Christie blames Trump for the GOP's losses the last three election cycles and spent months saying Republicans "have to be the party of tomorrow, not the party of yesterday" if they ever want to win another election. His tone on Trump is a stunning turnaround for a man who was one of Trump's closest outside advisors when he was in the White House and was even on the shortlist to be Trump's chief of staff. Christie turned on Trump after January 6, saying the president violated his oath of office. More recently, he told The New York Times that Trump's candidacy was "untenable" and that the former president had had "poor judgement" after he dined at Mar-a-Lago with white supremacist and Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes. He also told the Washington Examiner that Republicans "fail the leadership test" when they don't call out Trump. Gov. Ron DeSantis of FloridaRepublican gubernatorial candidate for Florida Ron DeSantis speaks during an election night watch party at the Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on November 8, 2022.Giorgio VIERA / AFP via Getty ImagesDeSantis, 44, has an enviable mantle for the presidency in the Florida governor's office — and he's making the most of it. He famously and unapologetically reopened Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic, before federal health officials said he should. He banned certain teachings on race in workplaces and schools, and flew unsuspecting migrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. DeSantis also signed a contentious parental involvement and sex ed bill into law that critics call "Don't Say Gay." Instead of backing down over the outcry, he punished Disney for threatening to repeal it.Then there were the historic tax cuts in Florida with promises of more as well as viral videos bashing what he calls the "corporate media." All of these actions have portrayed the governor as a fighter. That's not the only part of his public persona on display. Often in tow is his beautiful, young family. His former newscaster wife, Florida's first lady Casey DeSantis, has been instrumental in his rise. To the New York Post, pictures of the DeSantis family on Election Night was "DeFuture." Others see a conservative JFK. But the politician DeSantis most often gets compared to is Trump. Numerous news profiles have described DeSantis as "Trump without the baggage," or as a more disciplined Trump. Yet after leaning on Trump during his first gubernatorial victory in 2018, DeSantis showed he could win big on his own, scoring a historic, 20-point victory in Florida in November without Trump's endorsement.As for presidential clues, DeSantis is also out with his first memoir in February: "The Courage to Be Free: Florida's Blueprint for America's Revival." During the midterms, he extended goodwill to other Republicans by campaigning with them. Back at home, he raked in a record amount of cash for a gubernatorial race. If the GOP primary were decided today, numerous polls show, DeSantis is the only person that gets close to Trump. DeSantis, a former conservative House member, has not pledged to serve out all four years of his second term. All of that has angered Trump. He has called DeSantis "Ron DeSanctimonious" and threatened to release damaging information about the governor. DeSantis has refused to punch back at Trump publicly, instead blaming the media and saying, "When you're leading, when you're getting things done, you take incoming fire."South Dakota Gov. Kristi NoemSouth Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, Texas, on July 11, 2021.Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesNoem, 51, has been on a Trump-related roller coaster ride as of late. In January 2021, the embattled former president tried to get her to primary fellow South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a lawmaker Trump took to calling a RINO (which stands for "Republican in name only") after Thune balked at his baseless claims of election fraud. Noem bowed out of joining Trump's revenge campaign, opting to focus on her own re-election plans. Once 2022 rolled around, she leaned hard into the GOP culture wars, promising voters that she'd bar transgender athletes from participating in women's sports, stamp out any "critical race theory" instruction in local schools, and decimate any "radical political ideologies" that annoyed her evangelical Christian base.Come July, Noem told CNN she'd be "shocked" if Trump tapped her to be his 2024 running mate. But she didn't rule out sliding into the VP slot — or mounting a challenge of her own. Since winning a second term in November, Noem has started taking on bigger foes, including the People's Republic of China. —Kristi Noem (@KristiNoem) November 30, 2022 Her state government-wide ban against the use of social media app TikTok scored her fawning interviews on conservative outlets including Fox News and Newsmax, beaming her into the homes of potential admirers who don't happen to reside in the Mount Rushmore State. Noem seems far less enthusiastic about Trump these days, telling reporters that the twice-impeached, scandal-plagued former president isn't Republicans' "best chance" at retaking the White House in 2024. She issued this prediction just days after Trump announced he was running again.  Sen. Josh Hawley of MissouriSenator Josh Hawley (R-MO) speaks during the confirmation hearing for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson on March 22, 2022.JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)Hawley, 43, has reached for the spotlight whenever possible while Congress is in session.From famously saluting the January 6 protestors on the day of the violent siege at the Capitol to holding Brown Jackson's feet to the fire as she raced to join the Supreme Court, the first-term lawmaker works to portray himself as the perennial outsider who's only here to shake things up. He's played up the part by voting to overturn the 2020 election results on behalf of MAGA vote-magnet Trump, butting heads with McConnell on the way the upper chamber is run, and blaming short-sighted leaders for running the party into the ground. "When your 'agenda' is cave to Big Pharma on insulin, cave to Schumer on gun control & Green New Deal ('infrastructure'), and tease changes to Social Security and Medicare, you lose," Hawley, bemoaned on Twitter following a demoralizing midterms performance by flawed GOP candidates, which he blamed on "Washington Republicanism." The potential 2024 contender followed up with some suggestions, floating an alternative vision he said would help "unrig the system."   "What are Republicans actually going to do for working people? How about, to start: tougher tariffs on China, reshore American jobs, open up American energy full throttle, 100k new cops on the street," Hawley, who was also Missouri's former attorney general, tossed out on his social media feed. Asked by Insider about his intentions of formally jumping into the 2024 presidential race, Hawley laughed out loud for a few seconds. "I hope to run for reelection to the Senate in 2024. If the people of Missouri will have me," he said. Nowhere in there did Hawley say "no." Former Gov. Larry Hogan of MarylandGov. Larry Hogan of Maryland.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesEven before the bruising 2022 midterms, Hogan, 66, was warning that Republicans couldn't continue down the path they are on. "I am not about to give up on the Republican party or America," he wrote on Twitter in early December. "None of us can. It's too important."The two-term governor who beat a 2015 cancer scare has been fired up about plotting his next act. Hogan, a centrist Republican, is already making the rounds in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. A nonprofit group aligned with him reported raising $2 million in 2021, some of which was spent on "supporter acquisition" and "audience building." And Hogan recently scored some face time with GOP mega donors at this year's Republican Jewish Coalition leadership meeting — mentioning to political reporters covering the event that he and other potential 2024 hopefuls were there because "maybe there's a little blood in the water." Trump was notably absent at the event, but did video-conference in. As governor, Hogan signed a gun control bill into law and has said that while he opposed abortion, he wouldn't move to gut the state's guarantee on reproductive rights. During the COVID-19 pandemic he instituted a statewide mask mandate, then lifted restrictions in May 2021. While he has yet to formally declare a 2024 run, Hogan has begun billing himself as a "commonsense conservative" who GOP voters sick of losing may want to consider."I think there are 10 people who want to be the next Donald Trump, and I think there may be a different lane," Hogan said while stumping in Manchester, New Hampshire, adding, "I'm going to do everything I can to get the country back on track." He cast a write-in vote for Reagan in the 2020 election and called for Trump to be impeached or resign after January 6. Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of ArkansasArkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson attends the National Governors Association summer meeting, Friday, July 15, 2022, in Portland, Maine.Robert F. Bukaty/AP PhotoHutchinson, 72, hasn't been shy about criticizing Biden or Trump. After Trump's 2024 announcement, he said the former president's "self-indulging message promoting anger has not changed," and also disavowed the Fuentes and Ye meeting at Mar-a-Lago.Hutchinson has taken at least five trips to Iowa through America Strong & Free, the nonprofit of which he's the honorary chairman and spokesperson."I am seriously looking at a run in 2024 because America and the Republican Party are not in the best place," he said in a statement provided to Insider. "I know how to get us back on track both in terms of leadership and facing the challenging issues of border security, increased violent crime and energy inflation." He'll make a decision in January, he told KARK.As governor for the last eight years, he has pushed to make the state a leader in computer science, and signed several tax cuts into law, including lowering the state income tax rate from 7% to 4.9%. Hutchinson also signed bills into law blocking businesses from requiring customers and workers to show proof of COVID-19 vaccinations, and blocked state and local officials from obligating masks — a move he later said he regretted. He asked state lawmakers to create a carve-out for schools, but the Arkansas House rejected the proposal. While he signed an abortion ban into law in 2019 that took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, he said on CNN that he personally believes in exceptions for rape and incest."Many out there appreciate a 'consistent conservative,' even one they don't agree with all the time," Hutchinson told Insider. "I am not interested in the 'outrage of the day,' and I am committed to using my consistent conservative principles to guide me and our nation on important policy decisions." Hutchinson began his government career as a US attorney for the Western District of Arkansas under President Ronald Reagan, then went on to serve in the US House for three terms. President George W. Bush tapped him to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration, after which he served as undersecretary in the Department of Homeland Security. He has criticized Biden on illegal immigration, inflation, student loan forgiveness, and said on CNN that the president's September speech about democracy "singled out a segment of Americans and said basically they're our enemy."Hutchinson also has the distinction of being especially press friendly at a time when numerous Republicans have copied Trump's style of lashing out against journalists. "The media plays an important role in our democracy," Hutchinson told Insider. "I've never shied away from tough questions, and I have always been willing to defend my positions and conservative principles with the hard questions coming from the press."Former Vice President Mike PenceFormer Vice President Mike Pence speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition on Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPence, 63, has begun to distance himself from his former boss, while also promoting his new book, "So Help Me God." He told ABC's "World News Tonight" that Trump "decided to be part of the problem" by not immediately calling off the insurrectionists during the January 6 riot, after he declined to help invalidate Biden's lawful win. Pence also pushed back against Trump on WVOC in South Carolina after he called for terminating the Constitution, and came out forcefully after Trump had dinner with Fuentes."President Trump was wrong to give a white nationalist, an anti-Semite, and a Holocaust denier a seat at the table," he said on November 28. An adviser to the former vice president told Insider that, should Pence decide to run, the team has discussed several policy areas to differentiate himself, including Trump's bipartisan criminal justice reform bill, the First Step Act, and that he'll continue to be "very outspoken on the issue of life."In contrast, Trump didn't mention his three Supreme Court picks when he announced his 2024 presidential run, even though they helped overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that previously guaranteed a national right to abortion. Pence wouldn't have to worry about name ID during a presidential run. Still, his new book and a campaign would allow him to reintroduce himself to voters by talking about his work in the US House and then as governor of Indiana. He already has made numerous trips to early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina. Further, he'll be able to amplify policies that carried his fingerprints during the Trump administration, including his oversight of the US's pandemic response.Pence was a sought-after midterm surrogate, traveling to dozens of states. In May, he went to Georgia to help incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp beat Trump-backed primary challenger David Perdue.Pence's vision for the future of the party is laid out in his Freedom Agenda and Advancing American Freedom, the nonprofit aligned with him that serves as a type of campaign in waiting. The policies include reducing mail-in voting and implementing universal school choice, which allows public education funds to pay for K-12 students to select alternatives to public schools. While Pence didn't testify before the January 6 select committee, his senior aides including former chief of staff Marc Short and legal advisor J. Michael Luttig walked investigators through some of the scenarios that led up to the attack. In November, Pence said on Fox's "Hannity" that he would make a 2024 decision after discussing it with his family during the holidays. Former Secretary of State Mike PompeoFormer Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPompeo, 59, told Chicago donors in September that he already had teams in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.His outside campaign in waiting is called Champion American Values Fund, and Pompeo has been doing press appearances to talk about his forthcoming book, "Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love." Pompeo represented Kansas in the US Congress and was also former CIA director under Trump. After the end of the administration, he lost weight, which sparked speculation that he was interested in a White House run. Similar to Haley, Pompeo would enter the contest with a foreign policy background. He has openly criticized Biden, including after the president's September speech on protecting democracy. "He essentially said if you're pro-life or you're opposed to a certain set of policies, you're a threat," Pompeo told the New England Council's "Politics and Eggs" breakfast.  Biden, he said at the event, could be summed up as having "woke ideas, weak resolve, and waffling leadership."Trump should not have taken classified documents to Mar-a-Lago, he said, but added that the "raid on Mar-a-Lago was indecent and improper." Pompeo told conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt in November that Trump's announcement wouldn't affect whether he decides to run for president, adding that he'd make a determination in the spring. "We need more seriousness, less noise, and leaders who are looking forward," Pompeo said, "not staring in the rearview mirror claiming victimhood." Sen. Marco Rubio of FloridaWilfredo Lee/AP PhotoRubio, 51, has come out hot after cruising to a third term in November, castigating GOP leaders for totally blowing the midterms. "We have a historically unpopular Dem President, record inflation, a violent crime wave & total chaos at the border & not only did we fail to win a majority, we lost a seat. And the Senate GOP response is going to be to make no changes?" Rubio fumed in a December 7 Twitter post. His anger hadn't abated when Insider caught up with him at the US Capitol. "I don't know how you come back from what we have just encountered and conclude that the status quo and business as usual is how we want to proceed," Rubio said of the need for drastic changes within the GOP. While conceding that he doesn't have "all those answers," Rubio suggested that Senate Republicans take a hard look at "the mechanics of elections, policy, the legislative agenda, and all of that." "I think that's something we should all be involved in talking about," Rubio said of the sorely needed soul searching. Rubio, who is of Cuban descent, was speaker of the Florida House before heading to Washington. He has sponsored numerous bills that have become law, including doubling the child tax credit and co-authoring the Paycheck Protection Program that helped keep small businesses afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.On top of that, he's got a powerful perch as the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee. Political operatives have credited him with helping the GOP grow its influence with Hispanic voters, NBC News reported. Asked by Insider whether he had it in him to take another run at the former president after getting clobbered by the insult-flinging Trump in 2016, Rubio said he just really needs to take a breath. "We'll have time over the holidays and into the new year to sort of focus on everything going on in my life and here in the Senate," Rubio told Insider, adding that he hasn't "really focused in on" returning to the presidential proving grounds at the moment. Perhaps voters will learn more about future plans in his forthcoming book, "Decades of Decadence." Sen. Tim Scott of South CarolinaSen. Tim Scott, a Republican of South Carolkina, speaks at a fundraiser in Anderson, South Carolina on August 22, 2022.Meg Kinnard/AP Photo, FileScott, 57, hinted at a presidential bid during his midterms victory speech, even though he previously said he wouldn't run against Trump. "My grandfather voted for the first man of color to be elected as president of the United States," he said on November 8, referring to the vote his grandfather cast for Obama. "I wish he had lived long enough to see perhaps another man of color elected president of the United States. But this time, let it be a Republican and not just a Democrat. So just know: All things are possible in America."Scott, who previously served in the US House, is the only Black Republican in the Senate. He said his six-year term in the Senate beginning in January will be his last, but he hasn't ruled out a presidential run and is making all the right moves to position himself for the undertaking. Despite his own election, he has taken several trips to Iowa and spent time campaigning on behalf of other Republicans. He also released a memoir, "America, a Redemption Story: Choosing Hope, Creating Unity" and is one of the top fundraisers in the Senate — which includes support from small and online donors — even though he defended a safe seat this cycle.Major donors have contributed to Opportunity Matters Fun, a pro-Scott super PAC.Scott was among those leading the push for the successful passage of the bipartisan First Step Act and his measure to create Opportunity Zones that bring private investments into economically distressed communities was part of the 2017 tax reform law. He garnered national interest after delivering the GOP response to Biden's address to Congress in April. Afterward, McConnell said the senator represented "the future of the Republican Party." Scott has been open about the racism he has faced over the course of his life. "I get called Uncle Tom and the n-word by progressives, by liberals," he said in response to Biden's address. He has shared that police have pulled him over numerous times, despite him not violating any traffic laws. He sat down with Trump at the White House to discuss systemic racism and publicly called on Trump to call back certain statements he made on race. Haley, who was South Carolina governor at the time, appointed Scott to the Senate in 2013 after the seat opened up. Miami Mayor Francis SuarezTaylor Hill / Contributor Getty ImagesSuarez, 45, confirmed in October that he's considering a presidential run."It's something that I would consider given the right circumstances and given the right mood of the country," Suarez said at a Punchbowl News event. Miami has been getting a lot of attention given the surge of people moving to Florida — and tech companies and crypto startups in particular headed to Miami under Suarez's encouragement. He even told Twitter CEO Elon Musk that he should consider relocating the company's headquarters from San Francisco.Suarez's office sent over a list of accomplishments for the mayor, saying the city was No. 1 in job and wage growth, and had 1.4% unemployment. The Financial Times called Miami "the most important city in America." The mayor made historic increases to the city's police department, increased funding on climate-resistant infrastructure, and passed a rental tax credit for seniors. Suarez didn't vote for Trump during the 2020 election and in the 2018 gubernatorial race in Florida he voted for Democrat Andrew Gillum over DeSantis. But Suarez said Trump also has been kind to him. The two spoke at a wedding recently, he said, and Trump told him he was the "hottest politician in America after him.""I don't know if he meant physically hot or if he meant I was getting a lot of buzz," Suarez said. "But he was very nice." Suarez is of Cuban descent and leads the National Conference of Mayors. When asked about how he might stand out in a presidential race, Suarez said he might be able to speak to "a variety of minority communities that are going to be important if Republicans want to grow their base for a generation." Gov. Chris Sununu of New HampshireGov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire.Jon Cherry/Getty Images for ConcordiaSununu, 48, was just reelected to a fourth term in New Hampshire, where governors are reelected every two years and there are no term limits. "I haven't ruled anything in or out," he told Politico's "Playbook Deep Dive" podcast when asked about running for president in 2024. "I haven't ruled out a fifth term. I haven't ruled out running for higher office."Sununu is a centrist Republican who has the distinction of being in favor of abortion rights, at a time when many states are banning abortion. He came close to running for the US Senate in 2022, but told the Washington Examiner that other senators told him their main job was to be a "roadblock" in office — and he wasn't interested in that.Sununu also called Trump "fucking crazy" at the Gridiron dinner, a journalism event. "Let's stop supporting crazy, unelectable candidates in our primaries and start getting behind winners that can close the deal in November," Sununu said in November at Republican Jewish Coalition meeting.He told the Washington Examiner after the midterms that there should be new GOP leadership — not just in the White House but inside the Republican National Committee."Did they achieve on the level of results that we all thought we were going to get?" he asked. "No. So, why would we stick with the same team assuming we're going to get a better result?"Sununu is part of a political dynasty. His father was governor of New Hampshire who then went on to work in the George H.W. Bush administration as chief of staff. His brother was in the US House and US Senate. Gov. Glenn Youngkin of VirginiaGov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia.AP Photo/Steve Helber, FileYoungkin, 56, tried his hand at playing kingmaker in over a dozen 2022 gubernatorial contests and mostly came up short. The newly-minted Republican who rocketed to stardom in late 2021 by keeping Virginia purplish with his electrifying win over Democratic fixture Terry McAuliffe tried to work that same Trump-light magic into contests all around the country. The result: only four of the 15 Republican gubernatorial candidates Youngkin got involved with won their races. It's unclear whether Youngkin had any effect on the reelection bids of blowout winners like Kemp or Noem.By the same token, it's debatable whether he could have dragged Lake, Michigan's Tudor Dixon, or any of the other 2020 election deniers across the finish line given their full-on embrace of Trumpism. While he remains reluctant to badmouth the embattled former president, Youngkin clinched his 2021 win by keeping Trump at bay while still reaching out to the MAGA base. Trump, on the other hand, has tried to take full credit for Youngkin's win and lashed out at the newcomer for not being more appreciative. Trump's already working on trying to clip a Youngkin presidential bid from ever taking wing, panning him and DeSantis as ingrates who have no chance of beating him. Trump also reverted to his old tricks after the politically damaging 2022 midterms flop, hitting Youngkin with a bizarre, racist rant on Truth Social. Given that Virginia only allows governors to serve non-consecutive terms, it makes sense for Youngkin to seek opportunities elsewhere.The Washington Post reported that Youngkin spent part of his summer huddling with Republican mega donors in New York. And while he remains mum on any official plans for 2024, Politico said Youngkin's putting in place the types of fundraising groups a presidential candidate would want to have at the ready.Youngkin is a former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group. As governor, his first official action was to sign an executive order prohibiting Virginia schools from teaching "critical race theory." More recently, he's been pushing to reimburse individuals and businesses who paid fines for violating state COVID-19 restrictions under his Democratic predecessor.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Whether that's Iron Dome, something similar, or something else entirely, nothing is going to be "impenetrable," a missile defense expert said. U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media during a meeting with congressional leadership in the Roosevelt Room at the White House on November 28, 2017 in Washington, DC.Photo by Kevin Dietsch-Pool/Getty Images Trump recently said the US should build a nationwide missile defense shield like Israel's Iron Dome.  He said the US must be able to defend itself from the potential threat of hypersonic missiles. A missile defense expert said the plan is a long shot. Former President Donald Trump said in a recent video message that he would build an "impenetrable" missile defense shield like Israel's famed Iron Dome to protect the entire US from nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles should he win the 2024 presidential election.It is unclear if Trump wants the Iron Dome system defending American cities or if he wants a new shield specifically designed for hypersonic threats. Either way, his plan for an "impenetrable" defense is unrealistic, a missile defense expert told Insider.Iron Dome is not designed to defend against this type of threat. It protects a small area from less advanced projectiles, such as low-altitude and slow-moving rockets and artillery. And a new shield aimed at defeating all higher-end threats would be a massive undertaking that would almost certainly still have gaps.Trump said a shield is necessary because the rhetoric surrounding nuclear weapons and war has increased since he left office, claiming inaccurately that such threats never happened during his presidency but are now increasing because other countries have "no respect" for the Biden administration. His presidency began with nuclear threats from North Korea and during it, Russia unveiled a suite of developmental nuclear super weapons.Trump didn't provide any specifics on the new threats, but Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un have both made several provocative and threatening remarks about the possible future use of nuclear weapons in the last few months alone.  Trump argued a possible World War III would be a "catastrophe" that would dwarf the previous two world wars. To protect the US from such a hypothetical threat, the former president said the US needs to be protected by an "impenetrable dome," and should he win re-election in 2024, he would construct a "state-of-the-art next generation missile defense shield, just as Israel is now protected by the Iron Dome."He added that the US must be able to defend itself, its allies, and military assets around the world from the potential threat of nukes and hypersonic missiles. This type of threat is well beyond the Iron Dome's pay grade, as well as that of existing ballistic missile defense systems.A defense for short-range rockets and smaller artilleryIsrael's Iron Dome is designed to intercept short-range rockets and artillery from landing in civilian areas by using a network of radars and missile launchers. First deployed in 2011, Iron Dome is supported by the US and is considered one of the most advanced air defense systems in the world. Each Iron Dome interceptor costs roughly $20,000 and can intercept projectiles fired from over 40 miles away that are headed toward a sensitive or populated area. The missiles are fired from a battery, which work with radar-guided early warning systems to identify potential threats.   A single battery contains multiple launchers, each of which can hold as many as 20 Tamir interceptors, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). One battery — which consists of a radar and a battle management system and costs an estimated $100M to make — can defend a nearly 60-square-mile chunk of territory, and several are scattered across Israel.An Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept a rocket from Gaza Strip in the coastal city of Ashkelon, Israel, Saturday, July 5, 2014.AP Photo/Tsafrir AbayovIron Dome is excellent, but this exact type of defense won't necessarily have the same effectiveness over the US. It is very different defending a tiny country instead of a large continent, Ian Williams, deputy director of the Missile Defense Project at the CSIS, told Insider. Israel is less than 9,000 square miles, while the US spans over a whopping 3.7 million square miles. And Iron Dome is not capable of defending Israel against everything, Williams said. It is tailored to relatively low-altitude and slow-moving threats like short-range rockets, small missiles, artillery, and drones — it doesn't have a ballistic missile defense capability that would be needed to even have a chance at thwarting Trump's hypothetical hypersonic missile attack. Iron Dome also doesn't defend Israel by itself, according to the country's foreign ministry. It works in coordination with the David's Sling system — which protects against medium- to long-range rockets and missiles — and the Arrow system, which defends against ballistic missiles. The country also has a US-made Patriot air defense battery. "No missile defense system is impenetrable," Williams said. "It's about how you use your missile defenses in coordination with other systems." Even then, nothing is going to be impenetrable, as Israel has also found in its pursuits.He said there is a misconception that because Iron Dome can intercept around 90% of incoming threats, the system could be deployed over a major US city to defeat potential threats. But "the only thing that an Iron Dome in New York City could do would be to defend it against artillery barrages from New Jersey," Williams said.  'There's always some way to get through'Right now, the US has a homeland missile defense system called the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD). According to the Department of Defense, this system can identify and engage certain intermediate- and long-range ballistic missile threats in space. The GMD consists of 44 ground-based interceptors — as opposed to sea- or space-based — and global sensors, communications networks, and fire control systems. It is a "fairly capable" system designed to protect against "relatively simple" intercontinental ballistic missiles, Williams said. The system is said to have a success rate of around 55 percent in scripted testing, according to the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.Royal Canadian Air Force Colonel Travis Morehen, NORAD and USNORTHCOM Command Center Director, stands inside the command center inside Cheyenne Mountain Air Force Station on May 10, 2018 in Colorado Springs, Colorado.Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post via Getty ImagesExpanding this system wouldn't be impossible, but it would require a massive scale-up effort beyond what the US has done in the past, Williams said. A defense system of such massive scale would be reminiscent of the 1980s Strategic Defense Initiative, the epicenter of former President Ronald Reagan's defense policy, which would have relied on theoretical ground- and space-based missile interceptors.In addition to likely being incredibly expensive, there is no guarantee such a system would even work as intended. As is, the GMD system is not suited for countering threats from hypersonic missiles, which fly along unpredictable flight paths rather than the parabolic ones of traditional ballistic missiles.There are other systems available that might potentially help provide a layered defense, but trying to build something impenetrable is a long shot."We've kind of gone away from this idea of a perfect impenetrable dome. Given the threats you face, there's always some way to get through," Williams said. Missile defense is about "buying time" and being able to preserve the military so it can carry out a counteroffensive "to a degree that will deter your opponent from starting a war in the first place." While Trump appears to be framing the missile defense situation incorrectly, there are still certain things that the US can do to strengthen its homeland missile defense, Williams noted. One example of this is continuing to advance ballistic missile defense capabilities like tracking threats from space or upgrading interceptors to be able to eliminate more complex weapons.Additionally, he said, the US can improve its general air defense to defend sensitive areas around the country — like Washington, DC or military bases — from cruise missile threats.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Shots were fired after five North Korean unmanned aerial drones entered South Korean airspace on Monday, per the South Korean military. A South Korean soldier uses an anti-drone gun during an anti-terror drill in August 2022.Kim Jae-Hwan/Getty Images North Korean drones entered South Korean airspace on Monday for the first time since 2017. South Korea responded by firing warning shots and scrambling fighter jets. North Korea has significantly ramped up its missile testing this year.  Five North Korean drones crossed the border into South Korea on Monday for the first time in five years, heightening tension between the two neighbors. One drone traveled as far as the northern part of Seoul, South Korea's capital, about an hour's drive from the border, a South Korean defense official said in a briefing. The other four flew around Ganghwa Island, a CNN report said. The South Korean military responded by firing shots at the drones, though the country's defense ministry could not confirm if any drones were shot down."This is a clear provocation, and an invasion of our airspace by North Korea," South Korean defense official Lee Seung-oh said during a briefing.Lee said the South Korean military conducted a reconnaissance mission after the drones entered its airspace, with some assets crossing into North Korean territory and filming its military installations. The last time a North Korean drone entered South Korean airspace was five years ago, according to the South Korean military. In 2017, South Korea said it had recovered a crashed North Korean drone that was spying on a U.S.-built missile system being deployed in the country, according to a CNN report from that time. North Korea has aggressively ramped up its missile tests this year, firing missiles on 36 separate days, the highest annual tally since Kim Jong Un took power in 2012, according to CNN. On Friday, South Korea said North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles, according to CNN. Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

S.Korea Fires Shots, Scrambles Jets After North Sends Drones Near Seoul A rare and hugely significant incident occurred Monday along the heavily fortified border which separates the Korean peninsula. South Korea's military has confirmed it fired warning shots and scrambled jets after the north sent drones that violated the south's sovereign airspace. It is reported to be the first such major territory breaching incident in a half-decade, also resulting in Seoul sending surveillance aircraft across the border in response. The North Korean drones penetrated deep into the south's territory, resulting in civilian commercial flights to be temporarily grounded in and around Seoul.  "South Korea’s military detected five drones from North Korea crossing the border, and one traveled as far as the northern part of the South Korean capital region, which is about an hour’s drive away, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said," according to The Associated Press. Illustrative file image "The military responded by firing warning shots and launching fighter jets and attack helicopters to shoot down the North Korean drones," the report based on official military statements contines. "The attack helicopters fired a combined 100 rounds but it wasn’t immediately known if any of the North Korean drones were shot down, according to the Defense Ministry." Only one of the five drones was observed flying back across the border into North Korea, while the others disappeared from radar, according to the south's Joint Chiefs. Among surveillance countermeasures authorized in response, the Joint Chiefs said that its surveillance aircraft photographed sensitive North Korean facilities from which drones usually operate. The south's significant rapid response to the drones breaching the border resulted in a crashed manned aircraft. Seoul identified that one of its KA-1 light attack airplanes crashed while taking off, resulting in both pilots ejecting safely. "Our military will thoroughly and resolutely respond to this kind of North Korean provocation," Maj. Gen. Lee Seung-o, spokesman for the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a press briefing. Tensions along the militarized border have already been high due to Pyongyang firing off a record number of ballistic and other missiles this year, including a pair fired last week toward Japan. With now days left in 2022, analysts have tracked over 90 missiles fired this year. #BREAKING: South Korea has scrambled fighter jets and attack helicopters and has fired warning shots after North Korean drones violated its airspace - North Korean drone flies over capital of Seoul - A South Korean Ka-1 fighter jet crashed while fighting a North Korean drone pic.twitter.com/mJf2n1Dn1X — Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) December 26, 2022 "North Korea has launched at least 92 ballistic and other missiles in 2022 — more than in any previous year," The New York Times has tallied in a new report. "Each was in defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions that ban the country from testing ballistic missiles, as well as nuclear devices." Monday's fresh incident illustrates how close the rival sides of the Korean peninsula are to firing on each other's military assets at any time. The Kim Jong-Un regime has also been expressing anger over recent US-S.Korea military drills which has featured US nuclear-capable bombers and F-22 stealth jets flying over the peninsula and regional waters. Tyler Durden Mon, 12/26/2022 - 12:50.....»»

Unnecessary information on your resume wastes precious space and could even be used against you in the hiring process. Here's what you should remove. Unnecessary information on your resume can waste precious space better saved for things that can actually help you get the job, and in some cases, it can actively hurt your chances of landing the position.z_wei / Getty Images Hiring managers glance at resumes for mere seconds before making decisions about moving a candidate forward. Extraneous information can bog down your resume and in some cases, it can hurt your chances of landing the job. Here are 32 things you should strike from your resume right now. 1. An objectiveIf you applied, it's already obvious you want the job.The exception: If you're in a unique situation, such as changing industries completely, it may be useful to include a brief summary.Reza Estakhrian/Getty Images2. Irrelevant work experiencesYes, you might have been the "king of making milkshakes" at the restaurant you worked for in high school. But unless you plan on redeeming that title, it's time to get rid of all that clutter.But as Alyssa Gelbard, founder of career consulting firm Resume Strategists, points out: Past work experience that might not appear to be directly relevant to the job at hand might show another dimension, depth, ability, or skill that actually is relevant or applicable.Only include this experience if it really showcases additional skills that can translate to the position you're applying for.3. Personal detailsDon't include your marital status, religious preference, or Social Security number.Though it might have been the standard to include in the past, this information could lead to discrimination, so you shouldn't include it anymore.4. Your full mailing addressA full street address is the first thing that Amanda Augustine, a career expert for TopResume, immediately looks to cut from a resume."Nobody needs to have that on their resume anymore, and, to be quite honest, it's a security concern," she previously told Business Insider.d3sign5. More than one phone numberAugustine suggests including only one phone number on your resume, ideally your cell phone, so you have control over who answers your incoming phone calls, when, and what the voice mail sounds like."Also, you don't want employers trying to contact you in five different places, because then you have to keep track of that," she says.6. Your hobbiesIn many cases, nobody cares.If it's not relevant to the job you're applying for, it could be wasting space for more valuable elements of a resume.7. Blatant liesA CareerBuilder survey from 2015 asked 2,000 hiring managers for memorable resume mistakes, and blatant lies were a popular choice. One candidate claimed to be the former CEO of the company to which he was applying, another claimed to be a Nobel Prize winner, and one more claimed he attended a college that didn't exist.Rosemary Haefner, former chief HR officer at CareerBuilder, says these lies may be "misguided attempts to compensate for lacking 100% of the qualifications specified in the job posting."But Haefner says candidates should concentrate on the skills they can offer, rather than the ones they can't.8. Too much textIf you're using a 0.5-inch margin and eight-point font in an effort to get everything to fit on one page, consider it an "epic fail," says J.T. O'Donnell, founder of career advice site Careerealism.com, and author of "Careerealism: The Smart Approach to a Satisfying Career."She recommends lots of white space and no more than a 0.8 margin.Augustine agrees, warning particularly against dense blocks of text."Let's be honest: You're looking this over quickly, you're glancing through it, your eyes glaze over when you get to a big, long paragraph," she says.9. Too many bulletsIn the same vein, you can also overload your resume with too many bullet points, which Augustine calls "death by bullets.""If absolutely everything is bulleted, it has the same effect as big dense blocks of text — your eyes just glaze over it," she says.Augustine explains that bullets are only to be used to draw attention to the most important information. "If you bullet everything, everything is important, which means really nothing stands out," she says.LightField Studios/Shutterstock10. Time offIf you took time off to travel or raise a family, Gelbard doesn't recommend including that information on your resume. "In some countries, it is acceptable to include this information, especially travel, but it is not appropriate to include that in the body of a resume in the US."11. Details that give away your ageIf you don't want to be discriminated against for a position because of your age, it's time to remove your graduation date, says Catherine Jewell, author of "New Resume, New Career."Another surprising way your resume could give away your age: double spaces after a period.12. ReferencesIf your employers want to speak to your references, they'll ask you. Also, it's better if you have a chance to tell your references ahead of time that a future employer might be calling.If you write "references upon request" at the bottom of your resume, you're merely wasting a valuable line, career coach Eli Amdur says.13. Inconsistent formattingThe format of your resume is just as important as its content, Augustine says.She says the best format is the format that will make it easiest for the hiring manager to scan your resume and still be able to pick out your key qualifications and career goals.Once you pick a format, stick with it. If you write the day, month, and year for one date, then use that same format throughout the rest of the resume.Getty Images14. Short-term employmentAvoid including a job on your resume if you only held the position for a short period of time, Gelbard says. You should especially avoid including jobs you were let go from or didn't like.15. Present tense for a past jobNever describe past work experience using the present tense. Only your current job should be written in the present tense, Gelbard says.16. A less-than-professional email addressIf you still use an old email address like BeerLover123@gmail.com or CuteChick4Life@yahoo.com, it's time to pick a new one.It only takes a minute or two, and it's free.17. Any unnecessary, obvious wordsFor example, there's no reason to put the word "phone" in front of the actual number."It's pretty silly. They know it's your phone number," says Amdur. The same rule applies to your email address.Nuthawut Somsuk/Getty Images18. Your contact info at your current jobAmdur writes at NorthJersey.com:"This is not only dangerous; it's stupid. Do you really want employers calling you at work? How are you going to handle that? Oh, and by the way, your current employer can monitor your emails and phone calls. So if you're not in the mood to get fired, or potentially charged with theft of services (really), then leave the business info off."19. Headers, footers, tables, images, chartsWhile a well-formatted header and footer may look professional, and some cool tables, images, or charts may boost your credibility, they also confuse the applicant-tracking systems that companies use nowadays, Augustine previously told Business Insider.The system will react by scrambling up your resume and spitting out a poorly formatted one that may no longer include your header or charts. Even if you were an ideal candidate for the position, now the hiring manager has no way of contacting you for an interview.20. Your boss' nameDon't include your boss' name on your resume unless you're okay with your potential employer contacting the person. Even then, Gelbard says the only reason your boss' name should be on your resume is if the person is someone noteworthy or very impressive.21. Company-specific jargon"Companies often have their own internal names for things like customized software, technologies, and processes that are only known within that organization and not by those who work outside of it," Gelbard says. "Be sure to exclude terms on your resume that are known only to one specific organization."Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images22. Social media URLs that are not related to the positionA link to your Instagram account has no business taking up prime resume real estate. "Candidates who tend to think their personal social media sites are valuable are putting themselves at risk of landing in the 'no' pile," says Tina Nicolai, executive career coach and founder of Resume Writers' Ink."But you should list relevant URLs, such as your LinkedIn page or any others that are professional and directly related to the position you are trying to acquire," she says.23. More than 15 years of experienceWhen you start including jobs from before 2005, you start losing the hiring manager's interest.Your most relevant experience should be from the past 15 years, so hiring managers only need to see that, Augustine says.On the same note, don't include dates on degrees and certifications that are more than 15 years old.24. Salary information"Some people include past hourly rates for jobs they held in college," Nicolai says. This information is unnecessary, and the employer could use it against you in salary negotiations.Speaking of which, you also shouldn't list your desired salary in a resume. "This document is intended to showcase your professional experience and skills. Salary comes later in the interview process," says Amy Hoover, former president of Talent Zoo.Rachel Gillett25. Fancy fontsCurly-tailed fonts are a no, according to O'Donnell. "People try to make their resume look classier with a fancy font, but studies show they are harder to read and the recruiter absorbs less about you."26. Annoying buzzwordsStay away from words and phrases like "best of breed," "go-getter," "think outside the box," "synergy," and "people pleaser."Instead, try "achieved," "managed," "resolved," and "launched."27. Reasons you left a company or positionCandidates often think, "If I explain why I left the position on my resume, maybe my chances will improve."In reality, doing so is "irrelevant," Nicolai says: "It's not the time or place to bring up transitions from one company to the next."Instead, use your interview to address this.28. Your GPAOnce you're out of school, your grades aren't nearly as relevant anymore.If you're a new college graduate and your GPA was a 3.8 or higher, it's okay to leave it. But, if you're more than three years out of school, or if your GPA was lower than a 3.8, ditch it.29. A photo of yourselfEven a small photo can take up considerable space on a resume, and it usually doesn't add much anyway.30. An explanation of why you want the jobThat's what the cover letter and interviews are for!Your resume is not the place to start explaining why you'd be a great fit or why you want the job. Your skills and qualifications should be able to do that for you.We Are/Getty Images31. Opinions, not factsDon't try to sell yourself by using all sorts of subjective words to describe yourself, O'Donnell says. "I'm an excellent communicator" or "highly organized and motivated" are opinions of yourself and not necessarily the truth. "Recruiters want facts only. They'll decide if you are those things after they meet you," she says.32. Generic explanations of accomplishmentsDon't just say you accomplished X, Y, or Z — show it by quantifying the facts.For instance, instead of saying, "Grew revenues," try saying, "X project resulted in an Y% increase in revenues."Vivian Giang and Natalie Walters contributed to earlier versions of this article.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

5 Global Flashpoints Which Could Absolutely Explode During The Early Stages Of 2023 Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog, Will 2023 be a year when extremely destructive conflicts erupt all over the world?  We are certainly already living in a time of “wars and rumors of wars”, and tensions are approaching the boiling point in a number of key global flashpoints right now.  If several more major conflicts were to suddenly begin next year, we could potentially witness an extended period of geopolitical instability that would be unlike anything that we have ever witnessed.  It is easy to start wars, but it is much harder to end them.  If you doubt this, just look at what is going on in Ukraine.  There is no end in sight for that conflict, and there are several other wars that could literally erupt at any time.  The following are 5 global flashpoints which could absolutely explode during the early stages of 2023… #1 Serbia Are you ready for another war in the Balkans?  Ethnic tensions have risen to the highest level in more than two decades, and the president of Serbia just convened an emergency gathering of his national security council… Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has met his national security council as tensions rise in Kosovo between the authorities there and ethnic Serbs. On Saturday a stun grenade was thrown at EU police in north Kosovo, where Serbs form a majority, and local police exchanged fire with unknown groups. Ethnic Serbs set up road blocks after Kosovan police were deployed in a dispute over car number plates. Some in the region now believe that war is “inevitable”, and Kosovo is already asking NATO to step in and intervene… At a news conference in Kosovo’s capital Pristina on Sunday, Prime Minister Albin Kurti asked the Kosovo Force (KFOR), a NATO-led international peacekeeping force, to guarantee “freedom of movement,” as he accused “criminal gangs” of blocking roads. A fragile peace has been preserved in Kosovo since it declared independence from Serbia in 2008 following the 1998-99 war in which NATO intervened to protect Kosovo’s Albanian majority. Serbia does not recognize Kosovo’s independence. #2 The Disputed Border Between China And India On Tuesday, we learned that there has been yet another violent clash along the hotly disputed border between China and India… Soldiers from India and China clashed last week along their disputed border, India’s defense minister said Tuesday, in the latest violence along the contested frontier since June 2020, when troops from both countries were killed in a deadly brawl. Rajnath Singh, who addressed lawmakers in parliament, said Friday’s encounter along the Tawang sector of eastern Arunachal Pradesh state started when Chinese troops “encroached into Indian territory” and “unilaterally tried to change the status quo” along the disputed border near Yangtze. The Chinese just can’t seem to stop provoking India, and a full-blown conflict between the two nations could escalate out of control very rapidly. Let us hope that does not happen, because both China and India possess nuclear weapons. #3 Taiwan For a long time, we have been warned that China will eventually invade Taiwan. Unfortunately, tensions in the region just continue to escalate, and on Tuesday the Chinese sent more bombers into Taiwan’s air defense zone than ever before… China sent a record 18 nuclear-capable bombers into Taiwan’s air defence zone, Taipei said on Tuesday (Dec 13), just days after Beijing banned more Taiwanese imports in the latest sign of deteriorating ties. Democratic Taiwan lives under the constant threat of invasion by China, which sees the self-ruled island as part of its territory to be seized one day. #4 Iran There will be a war between Iran and Israel. Of course the IDF has already been regularly hitting Iranian-backed forces inside Syria on a regular basis, but we should be thankful that a full-blown war in which missiles are flying back and forth between the two nations hasn’t started yet. Unfortunately, we are closer than ever to that point.  In fact, it is being reported that Israel is actually warning that it may bomb the airport in Beirut “if it determines that Iran is smuggling weapons on civilian planes”… According to Israeli media reports, Israel has warned Lebanon that Israel Defense Forces could bomb Beirut’s airport if it determines that Iran is smuggling weapons on civilian planes destined for the terrorist group Hezbollah. The alleged weapons smuggling was reported by a London-based Arabic language newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, which quoted Israeli sources who said Israel issued the warning. When a full-blown war between Iran and Israel finally starts, there will be no holding back by either side. The death and destruction such a war will cause will shock the entire world, and the global oil trade will be thrown into a state of complete and utter chaos. #5 Ukraine The United States and Russia both continue to escalate the horrifying conflict in Ukraine. Now that Russia is bombing the living daylights out of Ukraine’s power grid, the U.S. is choosing to respond by giving Patriot missiles systems to the Ukrainians… Pentagon officials are in the final stages of preparing a plan to send a Patriot air defense missile system to Ukraine to counter Russian aerial assaults, U.S. officials told CBS News. The plan has not yet been approved by either the Pentagon or the White House, but that could come as early as this week. This represents a major escalation, and it is also being reported that the Biden administration has given the Ukrainian government the green light to conduct drone strikes deep inside of Russia. Needless to say, the Russians are not pleased at all about having to deal with drone strikes deep inside their own territory.  In fact, some prominent Russian voices are warning that the U.S. and Russia are getting dangerously close to the unthinkable.  The following comes from a British news source… Mad Vlad Putin’s henchmen have fired a warning shot that the Ukraine conflict could turn into a “full-scale nuclear war.” They made the stark comments after the US gave the go-ahead for Kyiv to kick off drone strikes into Russia. We don’t see such talk on U.S. television. The Biden administration continues to assure all of us that the risk of nuclear war is extremely low, but the Russians see things very differently… One source in Putin’s circle said: “This is playing with fire, risking full-scale war which could easily go nuclear.” Another added: “Who will now give Moscow the green light for strikes against Ukrainian decision-making centres?” Most people never imagined that World War I would get as bad as it did. And most people never imagined that World War II would result in tens of millions of deaths. Now we have entered the early stages of a third world war, and this time the major participants are armed with nuclear weapons. If we don’t pull back from the brink, the consequences could potentially be far beyond what most people could even imagine right now. So let us pray for peace, because a global war in which hundreds of millions of people die is not an acceptable option. *  *  * It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/17/2022 - 11:30.....»»

At least 17 Republicans have shown they're interested in the 2024 presidential nomination, even though Trump has already declared he's running. Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an event at Mar-a-Lago on November 15, 2022 in Palm Beach, Florida.Joe Raedle/Getty Images Donald Trump is the only Republican who has made a '24 run official. But many others have been floating the possibility of entering the GOP contest. From Pence to Haley, here's how Republicans are laying the groundwork for presidential runs. It's beginning to look a lot like 2016. Former President Donald Trump is the only Republican so far who has announced a 2024 presidential run, but numerous others are signaling that they're toying with the same idea. They're doing all the things they're supposed to do to test their chances: Visiting early primary states, writing books, showing up on the Sunday shows, campaigning with other Republicans ahead of the 2022 midterms, and weighing in publicly on President Joe Biden's policies — and even Trump's latest controversies. The next step will be hiring teams in Iowa and New Hampshire, Doug Heye, a longtime GOP aide and strategist, told Insider."You have got a stable of people who are essentially putting themselves all in the starting gates and all have their own timetable about when and if they decide to run," he said. December would be a "frustrating month" for political watchers because "no one is going to move that much," said Kristin Davison, vice president and general consultant at Axiom Strategies. But hopefuls would be floating what she called "trial balloons" — in which they publicly raise the prospect of a run to see how donors and the press will react. Whoever seizes the nomination will likely face Biden, though he has yet to formally declare his candidacy. But, Heye said, "it's a real possibility" that the GOP lineup will be large like it was in 2016.The stakes for losing the nomination aren't all bad, even if Republicans might come out of it with an unforgettable Trump nickname. After all, one of the people running for president could end up getting chosen as running mate or get a seat on the new president's Cabinet.And there are other perks to formally seeking the White House, such as raising one's profile and having a better shot at the presidency during a future cycle. Candidates could also wind up selling a lot more books or leave politics to get a prime TV or radio show. "It's a long, difficult process," Heye said, "and you're more likely to lose than not."Trump's legal, political, and personal liabilities have been piling up in the last month, leading many in the GOP to say the party needs not just a fresh face but to be led by a candidate who can actually win. Insider identified 17 people who could seek the Republican nomination in 2024, including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Tim Scott of South Carolina who are up for re-election this cycle and will therefore be in campaign mode anyway. Each will have to effectively answer the "why I'm running for president" question and find their lane in the party — which will inevitably include defining, or redefining, their relationship with Trump. "I don't think you can discount any of them at this point," Heye said. "It's too early to determine who outside of Trump is a frontrunner." Scroll through to see the lawmakers listed here in alphabetical order. Outgoing Rep. Liz Cheney of WyomingRep. Liz Cheney, a Republican of Wyoming, campaigned with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat of Michigan, at an Evening for Patriotism and Bipartisanship event on November 1, 2022 in East Lansing, Michigan.Bill Pugliano/Getty ImagesCheney, 56, is the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney and one of Trump's toughest Republican critics.She voted to impeach Trump after the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, and served as vice chair of the House select committee investigating Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.Cheney's actions have come at a cost under the heavy weight of Trump's ire. House Republicans punished her by stripping her of her leadership post, and she lost her US House seat to Trump-backed GOP challenger Harriet Hageman during the state's August primary.But she hasn't been deterred. Cheney said on NBC's "Today" that she would do "whatever it takes" to keep Trump out of the White House in 2024, including "thinking about" running for president herself. "I wouldn't be surprised to see her run for president," Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah told Insider in August. Cheney voted with Trump on policy when he was in office, and remains a conservative, telling the Reagan Foundation and Institute in June that she believes "deeply in the policies of limited government, of low taxes, of a strong national defense." But Cheney said she sees a breaking point with the Republican Party, telling the Texas Tribune Festival in September that she would leave the GOP if Trump became the 2024 nominee.This could mean she'd run for president as an Independent. Already, she has shown she's willing to campaign against Republicans who falsely deny that Biden won the 2020 presidential election.This year, Cheney converted her House campaign finance committee into an anti-election denier leadership PAC called The Great Task. The PAC spent $500,000 on a TV ad in Arizona that urged voters to reject Republicans Kari Lake and Mark Finchem, who were running for governor and secretary of state, respectively. During the 2022 midterms, Cheney endorsed incumbent Democratic Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia. Both won their races. "We had to make sure that we prevented election deniers from taking power," she told The Washington Post's Global Women's Summit in November. Many outsiders see long odds for Cheney, though a poll conducted in Utah found she could be a top contender there. Outgoing Rep. Adam Kinzinger of IllinoisRep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., speaks as the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol holds a hearing in Washington, DC, on July 21, 2022.AP Photo/J. Scott ApplewhiteLike Cheney, Kinzinger, 44, has spent much of the last year focused on the January 6 committee and drawing Trump's ire. He's the only other Republican on the House committee investigating the riot, and will be retiring from his seat at the end of this Congress, after six terms. Kinzinger told HuffPost in April that he "would love" to run against Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, but more for the fun of it than to actually win."Even if he crushed me, like in a primary, to be able to stand up and call out the garbage is just a necessary thing, regardless of who it is," he said. "I think it'd be fun."In a move that could be signaling he's planning on doing just that, Kinzinger in early 2021 launched his anti-election denier leadership PAC, called Country First. Kinzinger sponsored several bills that became law, including measures to prevent opioid addiction and a bill to help veterans with medic training transition to EMT work as civilians. Kinzinger served in the Air Force and remains a pilot in the Air National Guard. Sen. Ted Cruz of TexasSen. Ted Cruz, a Republican of Texas, speaks at a rally for Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker on November 10, 2022 in Canton, Georgia.Megan Varner/Getty ImagesCruz, 51, was the last Republican standing against Trump during the 2016 presidential nomination and had even announced that he'd pick former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina as his running mate. But Cruz — whom Trump nicknamed "Lyin' Ted" — lost following a nasty primary in which Trump levied highly personal attacks against the senator, including disparaging his wife's looks and falsely suggesting that Cruz's father had something to do with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Once Trump was in office, however, Cruz was one of the president's  biggest defenders. He voted to overturn the 2020 election results in Arizona and Pennsylvania and helped to secure Trump's acquittal in his second impeachment trial. In recent months, Cruz has been spending time in New Hampshire and campaigned with retired football star Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff. While in the Senate, Cruz led the successful effort to zero out the unpopular fine on the uninsured created by the Affordable Care Act.More recently, Cruz used Ketanji Brown Jackson's Supreme Court confirmation hearing to score points for a potential 2024 run, questioning her about school curriculum on race. Before coming to Congress, Cruz was solicitor general in Texas, a role that involves arguing cases before the Supreme Court. When Insider asked whether Trump's latest missteps had provided an opening for him to jump into the 2024 presidential race, Cruz chuckled a bit before laying out what sounded like a near-term agenda. "I think the Senate is the battleground … and I'm going to do everything I can to lead the fight right here," Cruz told Insider before launching into a tirade about his mounting frustration with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's decision making. He made no specific mention of 2024, but also didn't work in the word "no" anywhere.Cruz told the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas that he'll seek reelection in Texas in 2024 when his term is up, though state law allows him to run for both offices at the same time.Former Gov. Chris Christie of New JerseyFormer New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition Saturday, November 19, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoChristie, 60, is famously said to have missed his moment for the White House because he didn't run for president when he was getting a lot of attention as New Jersey's governor in 2012, and instead fizzled out in 2016 when faced with Trump and numerous other contenders. But that hasn't stopped him from weighing another go at it. As recently as October, during an appearance on "Real Time with Bill Maher," Christie confirmed that he was considering a 2024 run.  In the last 18 months, Christie has been prominently involved in midterm campaigning and on the same speech circuit as other GOP hopefuls, including the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. He also put out a book in 2021, titled "Republican Rescue: Saving the Party From Truth Deniers, Conspiracy Theorists, and the Dangerous Policies of Joe Biden." Christie served two terms as a Republican governor in a blue state where Democrats controlled the legislature. In that role, he expanded Medicaid under Obamacare and passed bail reform.But he got flak over a handshake with then-President Barack Obama during Hurricane Sandy relief efforts, and was hurt politically after members of his administration created traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge.Christie became a lobbyist in 2020, when he had several healthcare clients but cut ties a year later, according to the lobbying disclosure database, in what could be a sign that he's lining up for a run.   Today, Christie blames Trump for the GOP's losses the last three election cycles and spent months saying Republicans "have to be the party of tomorrow, not the party of yesterday" if they ever want to win another election. His tone on Trump is a stunning turnaround for a man who was one of Trump's closest outside advisors when he was in the White House and was even on the shortlist to be Trump's chief of staff. Christie turned on Trump after January 6, saying the president violated his oath of office. More recently, he told The New York Times that Trump's candidacy was "untenable" and that the former president had had "poor judgement" after he dined at Mar-a-Lago with white supremacist and Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes. He also told the Washington Examiner that Republicans "fail the leadership test" when they don't call out Trump. Gov. Ron DeSantis of FloridaRepublican gubernatorial candidate for Florida Ron DeSantis speaks during an election night watch party at the Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on November 8, 2022.Giorgio VIERA / AFP via Getty ImagesDeSantis, 44, has an enviable mantle for the presidency in the Florida governor's office — and he's making the most of it. He famously and unapologetically reopened Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic, before federal health officials said he should. He banned certain teachings on race in workplaces and schools, and flew unsuspecting migrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. DeSantis also signed a contentious parental involvement and sex ed bill into law that critics call "Don't Say Gay." Instead of backing down over the outcry, he punished Disney for threatening to repeal it.Then there were the historic tax cuts in Florida with promises of more as well as viral videos bashing what he calls the "corporate media." All of these actions have portrayed the governor as a fighter. That's not the only part of his public persona on display. Often in tow is his beautiful, young family. His former newscaster wife, Florida's first lady Casey DeSantis, has been instrumental in his rise. To the New York Post, pictures of the DeSantis family on Election Night was "DeFuture." Others see a conservative JFK. But the politician DeSantis most often gets compared to is Trump. Numerous news profiles have described DeSantis as "Trump without the baggage," or as a more disciplined Trump. Yet after leaning on Trump during his first gubernatorial victory in 2018, DeSantis showed he could win big on his own, scoring a historic, 20-point victory in Florida in November without Trump's endorsement.As for presidential clues, DeSantis is also out with his first memoir in February: "The Courage to Be Free: Florida's Blueprint for America's Revival." During the midterms, he extended goodwill to other Republicans by campaigning with them. Back at home, he raked in a record amount of cash for a gubernatorial race. If the GOP primary were decided today, numerous polls show, DeSantis is the only person that gets close to Trump. DeSantis, a former conservative House member, has not pledged to serve out all four years of his second term. All of that has angered Trump. He has called DeSantis "Ron DeSanctimonious" and threatened to release damaging information about the governor. DeSantis has refused to punch back at Trump publicly, instead blaming the media and saying, "When you're leading, when you're getting things done, you take incoming fire."South Dakota Gov. Kristi NoemSouth Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, Texas, on July 11, 2021.Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesNoem, 51, has been on a Trump-related roller coaster ride as of late. In January 2021, the embattled former president tried to get her to primary fellow South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a lawmaker Trump took to calling a RINO (which stands for "Republican in name only") after Thune balked at his baseless claims of election fraud. Noem bowed out of joining Trump's revenge campaign, opting to focus on her own re-election plans. Once 2022 rolled around, she leaned hard into the GOP culture wars, promising voters that she'd bar transgender athletes from participating in women's sports, stamp out any "critical race theory" instruction in local schools, and decimate any "radical political ideologies" that annoyed her evangelical Christian base.Come July, Noem told CNN she'd be "shocked" if Trump tapped her to be his 2024 running mate. But she didn't rule out sliding into the VP slot — or mounting a challenge of her own. Since winning a second term in November, Noem has started taking on bigger foes, including the People's Republic of China. —Kristi Noem (@KristiNoem) November 30, 2022 Her state government-wide ban against the use of social media app TikTok scored her fawning interviews on conservative outlets including Fox News and Newsmax, beaming her into the homes of potential admirers who don't happen to reside in the Mount Rushmore State. Noem seems far less enthusiastic about Trump these days, telling reporters that the twice-impeached, scandal-plagued former president isn't Republicans' "best chance" at retaking the White House in 2024. She issued this prediction just days after Trump announced he was running again.  Former UN Ambassador Nikki HaleyFormer UN Ambassador Nikki Haley during a news conference in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday, October 26, 2022.Matt Rourke/AP PhotoHaley, 50, has made it clear she's interested in the presidency. At the Republican Jewish Coalition in November, she told the crowd she was thinking about a presidential run "in a serious way" and would announce a decision "soon.""I've won tough primaries and tough general elections," she said. "I've been the underdog every single time. When people underestimate me, it's always fun. But I've never lost an election. And I'm not going to start now." The remarks were a turnaround from Haley's comments last year, when she said she wouldn't run for president if Trump were to seek the White House in 2024. Haley said at a Turning Point USA event that she'd take the winter holidays to make a decision. Early in her career, Haley joined her family's clothing business before leading the National Association of Women Business Owners.She served in the South Carolina House for three terms then was the state's governor for six years. In that time Haley delivered the GOP response to Obama's 2016 State of the Union Address.She pushed for the removal of the confederate flag from the South Carolina capitol after a gunman killed nine Black people at Emanuel Church in Charleston. Also as governor, Haley would not support a bill requiring transgender people to use the restroom that corresponded with the gender on their birth certificate. But in 2021 she wrote a commentary in the National Review saying transgender inclusion in sports was an "attack on women's rights."Haley was UN Ambassador under Trump for two years, and successfully pushed for the US to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem and defended Trump's decision to do so.In 2019 she published a memoir, "With All Due Respect: Defending America with Grit and Grace." Her experiences give her the coveted pairing of having both executive and foreign policy chops, which are often viewed as crucial to the presidency. Aside from Trump and Pence, few other contenders would have such a profile. As a woman of Indian descent, she could also help bring in suburban women voters who graduated from college and expand the GOP coalition among people of color. Her nonprofit group, called Stand for America, Inc., is seen as a campaign in waiting and raised about $8.6 million in 2021, according to Politico. And she founded the Stand for America PAC after her time in the Trump administration. Haley campaigned and fundraised in high-profile races during the 2022 midterms, including in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Haley told the National Republican Committee the day after the January 6 riot that Trump was "badly wrong" in his speech to supporters and that his "actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history." Sen. Josh Hawley of MissouriSenator Josh Hawley (R-MO) speaks during the confirmation hearing for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson on March 22, 2022.JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)Hawley, 42, has reached for the spotlight whenever possible while Congress is in session.From famously saluting the January 6 protestors on the day of the violent siege at the Capitol to holding Brown Jackson's feet to the fire as she raced to join the Supreme Court, the first-term lawmaker works to portray himself as the perennial outsider who's only here to shake things up. He's played up the part by voting to overturn the 2020 election results on behalf of MAGA vote-magnet Trump, butting heads with McConnell on the way the upper chamber is run, and blaming short-sighted leaders for running the party into the ground. "When your 'agenda' is cave to Big Pharma on insulin, cave to Schumer on gun control & Green New Deal ('infrastructure'), and tease changes to Social Security and Medicare, you lose," Hawley, bemoaned on Twitter following a demoralizing midterms performance by flawed GOP candidates, which he blamed on "Washington Republicanism." The potential 2024 contender followed up with some suggestions, floating an alternative vision he said would help "unrig the system."   "What are Republicans actually going to do for working people? How about, to start: tougher tariffs on China, reshore American jobs, open up American energy full throttle, 100k new cops on the street," Hawley, who was also Missouri's former attorney general, tossed out on his social media feed. Asked by Insider about his intentions of formally jumping into the 2024 presidential race, Hawley laughed out loud for a few seconds. "I hope to run for reelection to the Senate in 2024. If the people of Missouri will have me," he said. Nowhere in there did Hawley say "no." Outgoing Gov. Larry Hogan of MarylandGov. Larry Hogan of Maryland.Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesEven before the bruising 2022 midterms, Hogan, 66, was warning that Republicans couldn't continue down the path they are on. "I am not about to give up on the Republican party or America," he wrote on Twitter in early December. "None of us can. It's too important."The two-term governor who beat a 2015 cancer scare has been fired up about plotting his next act. Hogan, a centrist Republican, is already making the rounds in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. A nonprofit group aligned with him reported raising $2 million in 2021, some of which was spent on "supporter acquisition" and "audience building." And Hogan recently scored some face time with GOP mega donors at this year's Republican Jewish Coalition leadership meeting — mentioning to political reporters covering the event that he and other potential 2024 hopefuls were there because "maybe there's a little blood in the water." Trump was notably absent at the event, but did video-conference in. As governor, Hogan signed a gun control bill into law and has said that while he opposed abortion, he wouldn't move to gut the state's guarantee on reproductive rights. During the COVID-19 pandemic he instituted a statewide mask mandate, then lifted restrictions in May 2021. While he has yet to formally declare a 2024 run, Hogan has begun billing himself as a "commonsense conservative" who GOP voters sick of losing may want to consider."I think there are 10 people who want to be the next Donald Trump, and I think there may be a different lane," Hogan said while stumping in Manchester, New Hampshire, adding, "I'm going to do everything I can to get the country back on track." He cast a write-in vote for Reagan in the 2020 election and called for Trump to be impeached or resign after January 6. Outgoing Gov. Asa Hutchinson of ArkansasArkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson attends the National Governors Association summer meeting, Friday, July 15, 2022, in Portland, Maine.Robert F. Bukaty/AP PhotoHutchinson, 72, hasn't been shy about criticizing Biden or Trump. After Trump's 2024 announcement, he said the former president's "self-indulging message promoting anger has not changed," and also disavowed the Fuentes and Ye meeting at Mar-a-Lago.Hutchinson has taken at least five trips to Iowa through America Strong & Free, the nonprofit of which he's the honorary chairman and spokesperson."I am seriously looking at a run in 2024 because America and the Republican Party are not in the best place," he said in a statement provided to Insider. "I know how to get us back on track both in terms of leadership and facing the challenging issues of border security, increased violent crime and energy inflation." He'll make a decision in January, he told KARK.As governor for the last eight years, he has pushed to make the state a leader in computer science, and signed several tax cuts into law, including lowering the state income tax rate from 7% to 4.9%. Hutchinson also signed bills into law blocking businesses from requiring customers and workers to show proof of COVID-19 vaccinations, and blocked state and local officials from obligating masks — a move he later said he regretted. He asked state lawmakers to create a carve-out for schools, but the Arkansas House rejected the proposal. While he signed an abortion ban into law in 2019 that took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, he said on CNN that he personally believes in exceptions for rape and incest."Many out there appreciate a 'consistent conservative,' even one they don't agree with all the time," Hutchinson told Insider. "I am not interested in the 'outrage of the day,' and I am committed to using my consistent conservative principles to guide me and our nation on important policy decisions." Hutchinson began his government career as a US attorney for the Western District of Arkansas under President Ronald Reagan, then went on to serve in the US House for three terms. President George W. Bush tapped him to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration, after which he served as undersecretary in the Department of Homeland Security. He has criticized Biden on illegal immigration, inflation, student loan forgiveness, and said on CNN that the president's September speech about democracy "singled out a segment of Americans and said basically they're our enemy."Hutchinson also has the distinction of being especially press friendly at a time when numerous Republicans have copied Trump's style of lashing out against journalists. "The media plays an important role in our democracy," Hutchinson told Insider. "I've never shied away from tough questions, and I have always been willing to defend my positions and conservative principles with the hard questions coming from the press."Former Vice President Mike PenceFormer Vice President Mike Pence speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition on Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPence, 63, has begun to distance himself from his former boss, while also promoting his new book, "So Help Me God." He told ABC's "World News Tonight" that Trump "decided to be part of the problem" by not immediately calling off the insurrectionists during the January 6 riot, after he declined to help invalidate Biden's lawful win. Pence also pushed back against Trump on WVOC in South Carolina after he called for terminating the Constitution, and came out forcefully after Trump had dinner with Fuentes."President Trump was wrong to give a white nationalist, an anti-Semite, and a Holocaust denier a seat at the table," he said on November 28. An adviser to the former vice president told Insider that, should Pence decide to run, the team has discussed several policy areas to differentiate himself, including Trump's bipartisan criminal justice reform bill, the First Step Act, and that he'll continue to be "very outspoken on the issue of life."In contrast, Trump didn't mention his three Supreme Court picks when he announced his 2024 presidential run, even though they helped overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that previously guaranteed a national right to abortion. Pence wouldn't have to worry about name ID during a presidential run. Still, his new book and a campaign would allow him to reintroduce himself to voters by talking about his work in the US House and then as governor of Indiana. He already has made numerous trips to early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina. Further, he'll be able to amplify policies that carried his fingerprints during the Trump administration, including his oversight of the US's pandemic response.Pence was a sought-after midterm surrogate, traveling to dozens of states. In May, he went to Georgia to help incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp beat Trump-backed primary challenger David Perdue.Pence's vision for the future of the party is laid out in his Freedom Agenda and Advancing American Freedom, the nonprofit aligned with him that serves as a type of campaign in waiting. The policies include reducing mail-in voting and implementing universal school choice, which allows public education funds to pay for K-12 students to select alternatives to public schools. While Pence didn't testify before the January 6 select committee, his senior aides including former chief of staff Marc Short and legal advisor J. Michael Luttig walked investigators through some of the scenarios that led up to the attack. In November, Pence said on Fox's "Hannity" that he would make a 2024 decision after discussing it with his family during the holidays. Former Secretary of State Mike PompeoFormer Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at the annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, Friday, November 18, 2022, in Las Vegas.John Locher/AP PhotoPompeo, 58, told Chicago donors in September that he already had teams in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.His outside campaign in waiting is called Champion American Values Fund, and Pompeo has been doing press appearances to talk about his forthcoming book, "Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love." Pompeo represented Kansas in the US Congress and was also former CIA director under Trump. After the end of the administration, he lost weight, which sparked speculation that he was interested in a White House run. Similar to Haley, Pompeo would enter the contest with a foreign policy background. He has openly criticized Biden, including after the president's September speech on protecting democracy. "He essentially said if you're pro-life or you're opposed to a certain set of policies, you're a threat," Pompeo told the New England Council's "Politics and Eggs" breakfast.  Biden, he said at the event, could be summed up as having "woke ideas, weak resolve, and waffling leadership."Trump should not have taken classified documents to Mar-a-Lago, he said, but added that the "raid on Mar-a-Lago was indecent and improper." Pompeo told conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt in November that Trump's announcement wouldn't affect whether he decides to run for president, adding that he'd make a determination in the spring. "We need more seriousness, less noise, and leaders who are looking forward," Pompeo said, "not staring in the rearview mirror claiming victimhood." Sen. Marco Rubio of FloridaWilfredo Lee/AP PhotoRubio, 51, has come out hot after cruising to a third term in November, castigating GOP leaders for totally blowing the midterms. "We have a historically unpopular Dem President, record inflation, a violent crime wave & total chaos at the border & not only did we fail to win a majority, we lost a seat. And the Senate GOP response is going to be to make no changes?" Rubio fumed in a December 7 Twitter post. His anger hadn't abated when Insider caught up with him at the US Capitol. "I don't know how you come back from what we have just encountered and conclude that the status quo and business as usual is how we want to proceed," Rubio said of the need for drastic changes within the GOP. While conceding that he doesn't have "all those answers," Rubio suggested that Senate Republicans take a hard look at "the mechanics of elections, policy, the legislative agenda, and all of that." "I think that's something we should all be involved in talking about," Rubio said of the sorely needed soul searching. Rubio, who is of Cuban descent, was speaker of the Florida House before heading to Washington. He has sponsored numerous bills that have become law, including doubling the child tax credit and co-authoring the Paycheck Protection Program that helped keep small businesses afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.On top of that, he's got a powerful perch as the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee. Political operatives have credited him with helping the GOP grow its influence with Hispanic voters, NBC News reported. Asked by Insider whether he had it in him to take another run at the former president after getting clobbered by the insult-flinging Trump in 2016, Rubio said he just really needs to take a breath. "We'll have time over the holidays and into the new year to sort of focus on everything going on in my life and here in the Senate," Rubio told Insider, adding that he hasn't "really focused in on" returning to the presidential proving grounds at the moment. Perhaps voters will learn more about future plans in his forthcoming book, "Decades of Decadence." Sen. Tim Scott of South CarolinaSen. Tim Scott, a Republican of South Carolkina, speaks at a fundraiser in Anderson, South Carolina on August 22, 2022.Meg Kinnard/AP Photo, FileScott, 57, hinted at a presidential bid during his midterms victory speech, even though he previously said he wouldn't run against Trump. "My grandfather voted for the first man of color to be elected as president of the United States," he said on November 8, referring to the vote his grandfather cast for Obama. "I wish he had lived long enough to see perhaps another man of color elected president of the United States. But this time, let it be a Republican and not just a Democrat. So just know: All things are possible in America."Scott, who previously served in the US House, is the only Black Republican in the Senate. He said his six-year term in the Senate beginning in January will be his last, but he hasn't ruled out a presidential run and is making all the right moves to position himself for the undertaking. Despite his own election, he has taken several trips to Iowa and spent time campaigning on behalf of other Republicans. He also released a memoir, "America, a Redemption Story: Choosing Hope, Creating Unity" and is one of the top fundraisers in the Senate — which includes support from small and online donors — even though he defended a safe seat this cycle.Major donors have contributed to Opportunity Matters Fun, a pro-Scott super PAC.Scott was among those leading the push for the successful passage of the bipartisan First Step Act and his measure to create Opportunity Zones that bring private investments into economically distressed communities was part of the 2017 tax reform law. He garnered national interest after delivering the GOP response to Biden's address to Congress in April. Afterward, McConnell said the senator represented "the future of the Republican Party." Scott has been open about the racism he has faced over the course of his life. "I get called Uncle Tom and the n-word by progressives, by liberals," he said in response to Biden's address. He has shared that police have pulled him over numerous times, despite him not violating any traffic laws. He sat down with Trump at the White House to discuss systemic racism and publicly called on Trump to call back certain statements he made on race. Haley, who was South Carolina governor at the time, appointed Scott to the Senate in 2013 after the seat opened up. Miami Mayor Francis SuarezTaylor Hill / Contributor Getty ImagesSuarez, 45, confirmed in October that he's considering a presidential run."It's something that I would consider given the right circumstances and given the right mood of the country," Suarez said at a Punchbowl News event. Miami has been getting a lot of attention given the surge of people moving to Florida — and tech companies and crypto startups in particular headed to Miami under Suarez's encouragement. He even told Twitter CEO Elon Musk that he should consider relocating the company's headquarters from San Francisco.Suarez's office sent over a list of accomplishments for the mayor, saying the city was No. 1 in job and wage growth, and had 1.4% unemployment. The Financial Times called Miami "the most important city in America." The mayor made historic increases to the city's police department, increased funding on climate-resistant infrastructure, and passed a rental tax credit for seniors. Suarez didn't vote for Trump during the 2020 election and in the 2018 gubernatorial race in Florida he voted for Democrat Andrew Gillum over DeSantis. But Suarez said Trump also has been kind to him. The two spoke at a wedding recently, he said, and Trump told him he was the "hottest politician in America after him.""I don't know if he meant physically hot or if he meant I was getting a lot of buzz," Suarez said. "But he was very nice." Suarez is of Cuban descent and leads the National Conference of Mayors. When asked about how he might stand out in a presidential race, Suarez said he might be able to speak to "a variety of minority communities that are going to be important if Republicans want to grow their base for a generation." Gov. Chris Sununu of New HampshireGov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire.Jon Cherry/Getty Images for ConcordiaSununu, 48, was just reelected to a fourth term in New Hampshire, where governors are reelected every two years and there are no term limits. "I haven't ruled anything in or out," he told Politico's "Playbook Deep Dive" podcast when asked about running for president in 2024. "I haven't ruled out a fifth term. I haven't ruled out running for higher office."Sununu is a centrist Republican who has the distinction of being in favor of abortion rights, at a time when many states are banning abortion. He came close to running for the US Senate in 2022, but told the Washington Examiner that other senators told him their main job was to be a "roadblock" in office — and he wasn't interested in that.Sununu also called Trump "fucking crazy" at the Gridiron dinner, a journalism event. "Let's stop supporting crazy, unelectable candidates in our primaries and start getting behind winners that can close the deal in November," Sununu said in November at Republican Jewish Coalition meeting.He told the Washington Examiner after the midterms that there should be new GOP leadership — not just in the White House but inside the Republican National Committee."Did they achieve on the level of results that we all thought we were going to get?" he asked. "No. So, why would we stick with the same team assuming we're going to get a better result?"Sununu is part of a political dynasty. His father was governor of New Hampshire who then went on to work in the George H.W. Bush administration as chief of staff. His brother was in the US House and US Senate. Gov. Glenn Youngkin of VirginiaGov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia.AP Photo/Steve Helber, FileYoungkin, 56, tried his hand at playing kingmaker in over a dozen 2022 gubernatorial contests and mostly came up short. The newly-minted Republican who rocketed to stardom in late 2021 by keeping Virginia purplish with his electrifying win over Democratic fixture Terry McAuliffe tried to work that same Trump-light magic into contests all around the country. The result: only four of the 15 Republican gubernatorial candidates Youngkin got involved with won their races. It's unclear whether Youngkin had any effect on the reelection bids of blowout winners like Kemp or Noem.By the same token, it's debatable whether he could have dragged Lake, Michigan's Tudor Dixon, or any of the other 2020 election deniers across the finish line given their full-on embrace of Trumpism. While he remains reluctant to badmouth the embattled former president, Youngkin clinched his 2021 win by keeping Trump at bay while still reaching out to the MAGA base. Trump, on the other hand, has tried to take full credit for Youngkin's win and lashed out at the newcomer for not being more appreciative. Trump's already working on trying to clip a Youngkin presidential bid from ever taking wing, panning him and DeSantis as ingrates who have no chance of beating him. Trump also reverted to his old tricks after the politically damaging 2022 midterms flop, hitting Youngkin with a bizarre, racist rant on Truth Social. Given that Virginia only allows governors to serve non-consecutive terms, it makes sense for Youngkin to seek opportunities elsewhere.The Washington Post reported that Youngkin spent part of his summer huddling with Republican mega donors in New York. And while he remains mum on any official plans for 2024, Politico said Youngkin's putting in place the types of fundraising groups a presidential candidate would want to have at the ready.Youngkin is a former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group. As governor, his first official action was to sign an executive order prohibiting Virginia schools from teaching "critical race theory." More recently, he's been pushing to reimburse individuals and businesses who paid fines for violating state COVID-19 restrictions under his Democratic predecessor.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Futures Steady Ahead Of Fed Decision US equity futures were unchanged after two days of declines in underlying gauges as investors brace for today's 2pm Fed interest-rate decision along with its monetary policy outlook (although a potentially more surprising treasury buyback announcement could come as soon as 830am when the Treasury publishes its quarterly refunding announcement). Contracts on the S&P 500 were little unchanged, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.2% as of 7:30 a.m. in New York. Stocks have stabilized after a drop in the S&P 500 on Tuesday that was triggered by a surprise surge in job openings. European stocks erased earlier gains while US-listed Chinese stocks rallied in premarket trading and the Hang Seng Index rose in a session cut short by a storm warning as growing speculation over China’s reopening spurred another rally in Asia. The US dollar dropped for the second day as the yen strengthened in a sign traders anticipate a muted impact of Fed tightening on the currency; 10Y yields traded unchanged around 4.04%. All eyes will be on the Fed later, when the central bank is widely expected to raise rates by 75 basis points for a fourth time in a row; the question is what the Fed does in December and onward. Here is a summary of Fed rate-hike expectations from major banks for Sept and Dec: Bank of America: 75 bps, 50 bps Barclays: 75 bps, 75 bps Citigroup: 75 bps, 50 bps Deutsche Bank: 75 bps, 75 bps JPMorgan Chase: 75 bps, 50 bps Goldman Sachs: 75 bps, 50 bps Morgan Stanley: 75 bps, 50 bps Wells Fargo: 75 bps, 50 bps Goldman expects a more dovish 50bps Dec rate hike, but also a slower rise to peak as it has now added a 25bps rate hike in March which brings the Fed to 5.00%. Chair Jerome Powell’s comments will be key, especially after a 7.8% rally in the S&P 500 since Oct. 12, triggered mostly by expectations of easing in the central bank’s hawkish narrative given risks to economic growth. Our full FOMC preview can be found here. “It’s a matter of balance here -- the Fed doesn’t want to signal too much hawkishness, but also doesn’t want to sound too dovish as that would result in a huge leg up in share prices and too much of an easing in financial conditions,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Services. Oliver feels caution is still needed. “We may have seen the bottom in the share market and certainly sentiment has been very negative, but by the same token given recession risks and the yield curve continuing to invert in the US, that suggests risks are still high,” he said on Bloomberg TV. “It’s a challenge for messaging because they don’t want to ease financial conditions significantly,” said Julia Coronado, the founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “They need tight financial conditions to keep cooling the economy off. So he doesn’t want to sound dovish, but he may want to go slower.” “Continuation of the year-end rally is contingent on the Fed delivering on the pivot narrative,” said Barclays Plc strategists led by Emmanuel Cau, who see current market optimism as misplaced. “It feels premature for the Fed to loosen financial conditions via equity and bond markets -- inflation is just too high.” Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers also warned that expectations the central bank would pivot were “badly misguided,” saying the Fed should “stay on the current course.” In premarket trading, US-listed Chinese stocks rallied for the second day and were set to extend Tuesday’s gains, after new unverified social media posts claimed the government is considering a slew of changes to its Covid Zero policy, including a shorter quarantine period for inbound travelers. Chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices rose after topping profit estimates, but Airbnb slumped after its bookings outlook for the fourth quarter fell short of expectations. Apple shares slipped after China ordered a seven-day lockdown of the area around Foxconn Technology Group’s main plant in Zhengzhou, a move that will severely curtail shipments in and out of the world’s largest iPhone factory. Here are all the notable premarket movers: AMD rose 4.9% after topping profit estimates as the semiconductor company’s expansion into the server processor market helped offset falling demand for chips used in PCs. Airbnb shares decline 6% after giving a downbeat outlook for 4Q bookings. While analysts applauded the firm’s robust 3Q results, they also highlighted the moderately weaker prospects for the alternative accommodation specialist amid FX headwinds. Arcturus Therapeutics shares surge 33% in US premarket trading after the biotech entered a collaboration and license agreement with a unit of CSL. The pact reduces execution risk, Cantor Fitzgerald says, prompting the broker to raise its price target. Bally’s cut to hold at Stifel, which says macro, regulatory and development risks in the near-term force the broker into “capitulation” and a move to the sidelines. Shares decline 1.8% Bandwidth shares jump 15% in US premarket trading after the company forecast fourth-quarter revenue above the average analyst estimate and raised its full-year outlook. Benefitfocus shares rise 48% to $10.35 in US premarket trading, after Voya Financial agreed to buy the company at $10.50 a share in cash. Canada Goose cut its non-IFRS adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year; the guidance missed the average analyst estimate. Shares declined as much as 3.6%. Coty and L’Oreal declined after peer Estee Lauder’s second-quarter and full-year forecasts trailed consensus estimates, sinking the stock as much as 13% in premarket trading. Coty shares decline 2.8% and L’Oreal shares fell 1.7%. Chegg jumps as much as 17.5% after the education-focused company reported better-than-expected third- quarter earnings and boosted its full-year outlook for revenue and adjusted Ebitda. Match Group surges as much as 14.7% after the owner of dating apps including Tinder and OkCupid reported third-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate and pledged to control costs. Analysts said that while 4Q and initial 2023 guidance were below expectations, they look achievable based on the current macro environment. DuPont gain 3.6% in thin premarket trading after the company scrapped a planned $5.2 billion acquisition of Rogers Corp., a move which analysts say will bolster DuPont’s balance sheet and improve the scope for share buybacks. Offerpad Solutions slump 3.8% in US premarket trading on Wednesday, ahead of the real estate firm’s third-quarter results due after the market close. TFF Pharmaceuticals Inc. plunges 38% in premarket trading as studies of two inhaled powder therapies have been impacted by challenges tied to “staffing shortages, shipping, and global supply chain delays,” the company said in a release. Tupperware shares plunged 33.4% after the company reported worse- than-expected third quarter results, including revenue and adjusted EPS that both missed analyst estimates. Yum China shares jump 13.6% in US premarket trading after the restaurant operator reported flat same-store sales growth in the third quarter, enough to impress analysts who had expected a decline, given stringent Covid control measures in China. ZoomInfo Technologies (ZI) shares plunge as much as 22% as analysts cut their price targets following 3Q results. Despite a beat-and- raise, comments from the software company that the operating environment is becoming more challenging show that it could be susceptible to a slowdown in the economy, according to analysts, who see growth moderating next year. European equities are mixed after euro-area manufacturing activity sank to the lowest level since May 2020. Euto Stoxx 50 little changed, erasing earlier gains; the CAC 40 outperforms peers, while FTSE 100 and DAX lag. Healthcare stocks outperformed in Europe after Novo Nordisk A/S raised its operating profit and sales forecasts for the year; consumer products and personal care are among the best performing sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Sinch shares rally as much as 36% after 3Q results, with improved free cash flow, reduced net debt and prolonged short- term financing giving another boost to the heavily shorted stock. Shares in Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas rose as much as 8.6%, the most since August, after positive pricing concealed a 3Q results miss which led to a 5.5% fall in early trading. Novo Nordisk rises as much as 5.9%, hitting the highest since August, with analysts noting the Danish drugmaker’s guidance raise and its confirmation on the timeline for its Wegovy obesity treatment. Hiscox climbs as much as 6.2%, the most since August, after the insurer reported smaller-than- anticipated Hurricane Ian losses and solid trading across the rest of its business. Next Plc rises as much as 3.7% after maintaining its profit guidance, which is a “small positive read to the online retail space,” RBC said. Demant falls as much as 15%, the most since mid August, after the company cut its full- year guidance. VGP slumps as much as 12% after Barclays downgraded the real estate developer to underweight from overweight. Maersk drops as much as 7.3%, with Citi noting that the shipping firm’s lower expectations for contract rates are likely to weigh on investor sentiment. Smurfit Kappa declines as much as 5.1% in Dublin after results, with Goodbody analysts highlighting the company’s “challenging market conditions” and labor inflation pressures. Packaging peer DS Smith also slides. Euro-area manufacturing activity sank to the lowest level since 2020 and A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, a bellwether for global trade, cut its forecast for the global container market, saying inflation will persist even as demand drops as much as 4% this year. The company’s shares fell. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks headed for a three-day advance as growing speculation over China’s reopening spurred another strong rally, while traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9%, led by the consumer discretionary sector. Chinese and Hong Kong stocks drove gains in the region as investors scooped up shares following wide circulation of unverified posts outlining a loosening of the nation’s Covid Zero policy. Still, enthusiasm that sparked the rally in Chinese stocks could fade if authorities there don’t follow up on the speculation, Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte, wrote in a note. The Hang Seng Index had its best two-day run since March before the session was cut short by a storm warning; The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.8%, also capping its best two-day rally since March. Trading in Hong Kong closed earlier than usual due to a tropical storm.  Most other markets posted modest gains or declines as investors opted to wait and assess the Fed’s policy signals. Data on Tuesday showing a solid US labor market bolstered speculation that policy could remain aggressively tight even with the threat of a recession. The central bank is set to raise rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row on Wednesday.  In rates, Treasuries were mixed ahead of FOMC rate decision at 2pm ET, with long-end yields slightly cheaper on the day and front-end yields richer by ~3bp, steepening the curve as the 2-year yield fell by around 3bps and 30-year yields added 2bps. 10-year TSY yields were little changed around 4.04% as the curve steepens around the sector; 2s10s, 5s30s spreads are wider by ~2bp and ~3bp on the day vs UK 2s10s, 5s30s spreads wider by ~9bp and ~13bp Broadly subdued price action compares with aggressive steepening in gilt curve, where 2- and 5-year UK yields are ~1bp richer on the day. Focus on Fed rate decision may limit price action over early US session; traders have been hedging prospect of Fed to hint at a slowdown in rate hikes for the December policy meeting over the past couple of weeks The quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am is viewed as having limited potential for auction size changes and may signal progress toward a buyback program. Bunds bear-flattened, as yields rose up to 4bps. Italian bond yields rose by around 5bps across the curve. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by around 0.2% as the greenback was steady or weaker against all of its Group-of-10 peers amid positioning ahead of today’s Fed meeting. SEK and GBP are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, NZD and JPY outperform The euro staged a slight rebound to trade around $0.99 after two days of losses against the dollar. The pound was steady around $1.15 while front-end gilts rallied, sending 2- year yields down by around 11bps The yen led G-10 gains along with New Zealand’s currency; the yen rose a second day versus the dollar. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda told parliament the nation’s economy is no longer in deflation since the central bank started its current easing program, though added that inflation was seen slowing in fiscal year 2023; minutes of the BOJ’s September meeting noted it was desirable to keep an easing bias The kiwi and sovereign yields advanced as unemployment stayed near a record low in the third quarter while wages surged. In commodities, wheat futures fell after Turkey’s Erdogan said grain shipments via the Ukraine corridor would resume.  oil traded near $88 a barrel ahead of the Fed rate decision. West Texas Intermediate futures pared an earlier gain to trade little changed with prices stuck in a $12 band over the last month. Glencore Plc officials delivered cash in private jets to officials in west Africa, UK prosecutors said as they laid out a web of bribery and corruption orchestrated by the London oil trading desk. President Joe Biden’s threat to slap a tax on oil-company profits is more bluster than threat as the clock runs out on the administration’s efforts to tame fuel prices ahead of midterm elections. Spot gold rises roughly $8 to trade near $1,656/oz as traders mull the possibility of a rate-hike slowdown.     Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,877.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 416.07 MXAP up 0.8% to 139.99 MXAPJ up 0.8% to 448.01 Nikkei little changed at 27,663.39 Topix up 0.1% to 1,940.46 Hang Seng Index up 2.4% to 15,827.17 Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,003.37 Sensex down 0.5% to 60,846.16 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 6,986.66 Kospi little changed at 2,336.87 Brent Futures up 0.2% to $94.81/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,652.92 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.27% to 111.18 German 10Y yield up 0.5% to 2.14% Euro up 0.3% to $0.9902 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Overnight volatility rallies for the major currencies as traders position for the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision later Wednesday. Pound hedging costs lead the race as the Bank of England also meets Thursday The Federal Reserve looks set to deliver a fourth straight super-sized rate increase with Chair Jerome Powell repeating his resolute message on inflation and opening the door to a downshift -- without necessarily pivoting yet Euro-area manufacturing activity sank to the lowest level since the first Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020 as record inflation and a weakening global economy erode demand for goods German companies have never been so concerned about sales as they struggle with the energy crisis and a gloomy world economy, and they fear the worst is yet to come, a survey found People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang gave an optimistic outlook for the economy on Wednesday, saying it remains “broadly on track” and he hoped the property market can achieve a “soft landing” A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks were mixed with the region cautious and price action mostly rangebound after the lacklustre handover from the US where strong JOLTS data spurred a more hawkish Fed terminal rate pricing and as markets await the FOMC. ASX 200 was kept afloat by strength in the commodity-related sectors but with upside capped after PM Albanese rejected providing cash handouts and with the property industry pressured after home loans and building approvals fell. Nikkei 225 was indecisive as earnings releases remained in focus and officials continued their currency jawboning. KOSPI wiped out nearly all its early gains amid geopolitical concerns after North Korea reportedly fired at least 10 missiles and which was the first time its missiles fell near South Korea’s territorial waters. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp eventually extended their recent rumour-driven surge regarding China reopening despite the denial by a Foreign Ministry spokesperson and with officials pledging policy support measures, while Hong Kong markets were closed after half-day due to a storm signal 8. Top Asian News PBoC Governor Yi said China's economy is broadly on track and potential growth is to remain in a reasonable range, and noted that inflation remains subdued and accommodative monetary policy is to support the economy. PBoC Governor Yi added that they will continue to improve the business environment, while they will deepen supply-side reforms and step up targeted support for key and weak sectors, according to Reuters. China state planner official said China's foreign investment increased steadily so far this year and will encourage more foreign investment in the manufacturing industry, according to Reuters. China locked down the area around the world's largest iPhone factory, according to Bloomberg. BoJ September Meeting Minutes stated a few members said they need to be vigilant to the impact monetary tightening by some central banks could have on global markets, while several members said a weak yen could hurt households, small firms and non-manufacturers. Members agreed that Japan's economy is picking up and several members said the BoJ must communicate to the public its monetary policy does not directly target FX moves. RBNZ Financial Stability Report noted that the financial system remains resilient but added some households and businesses will be challenged by the rising interest rate environment, while it also stated that there are increasing downside risks to the global economic outlook and the extent to which the economic activity will slow due to monetary policy tightening remains uncertain. Furthermore, the RBNZ later stated it will consider tightening policy faster or slower at the Monetary Policy Statement. Chinese Commerce Ministry says it will expand the imports of advanced technology, key equipment and components, and increase imports of energy and agricultural products in short supply, via a Party Congress supplementary reading cited by Reuters. European bourses are mixed as the initial positive bias faded amid downward PMI revisions and increasing geopolitical tensions, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%. Health Care is the outperforming sector after Q3 earnings from GSK (+1.6%) and Novo Nordisk (+4.5%), more broadly sectors are mixed with no overarching bias. US futures are similarly contained but have been less reactive to the geopolitical and PMI developments as participants remain firmly affixed on the Fed, ES Unch. & NQ +0.2%. A.P. Moeller-Maersk (MAERSK DC) expect a slowdown of the global economy to lead to softer market in ocean. Cuts FY22 global container demand forecast to -2% to -4%. Freight rates have begun normalising during Q3; Maersk -5.0%. Moody's downgrades the outlook for the banking sector in Germany, Italy, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, to negative from stable; citing energy crisis, high inflation, and rising rates, via Reuters. Top European News Germany's DIHK says German companies are bracing for another economic slump in the next 12 months; 52% of firms see business worsening in the next 12 months; says German GDP should be +1.2% in 2022 and -3% in 2023, Germany's VDMA engineering orders in Sep -5% Y/Y (Domestic -4%, Foreign Orders +8%); in first 9M orders +1% Y/Y (Domestic -3%, Foreign +2%) Next Sales Better Than Expected Despite UK’s Costs Crisis Vestas Cuts Outlook Again as Wind Turbine Industry Spirals North Korea Fires 17 Missiles in Biggest-Ever Daily Barrage Novo Boosts Sales Forecast on Demand for Obesity Drug Wegovy Sampo 3Q Pretax Profit Misses Estimates; Decides on Dual Listing Britishvolt Says Loan Gives EV Battery Startup Weeks of Runway FX USD is under modest pressure as we count down to the FOMC, action which is benefiting peers across the board with the antipodeans and JPY currently the main beneficiaries. DXY has slipped to a 111.12 low from earlier highs above the 111.50 mark, with brief respite for the USD occurring alongside the NY Times article re. Russia. EUR/USD relatively unreactive to the morning's PMI revisions, downbeat commentary and numerous surveys out of Germany featuring a similar narrative, single currency holding around 0.9900. NZD outpaces and has lifted to a test of the 0.59 mark, where the current WTD peak resides, following domestic data which seemingly keeps hawkish impulses in focus. JPY is the next best performer given its haven status and after BoJ Minutes noted several members said a weak yen could hurt; USD/JPY probing but yet to lose 147.00. BoC Governor Macklem said they expect the policy rate will need to rise further and how much further rates will go up depends on how monetary policy is working, how supply chains are resolving and how inflation is responding to tightening. Macklem added that there are no easy outs to restoring price stability and reiterated the tightening phase will draw to a close and they are getting close but are not there yet. Fixed Income EGBs are modestly pressured with yields a touch higher as such, though the complex is currently relatively contained ahead of a busy PM docket incl. the FOMC. USTs are essentially flat with yields incrementally steeper but similarly contained as such; note, the pre-FOMC docket is busy and features ADP alongside Quarterly Refunding. Back to Europe, Bunds and peers haven't been too reactive to the downbeat PMI releases/commentary, with Bunds also conscious of upcoming Green supply; 10yr yield continues to lift from 2.10%. Commodities Crude benchmarks have given up their USD and China induced APAC upside amid downbeat commentary from Maersk and the EZ Final Manufacturing PMIs. Currently, the benchmarks are incrementally softer on the session and in proximity to the USD 88/bbl and USD 94/bbl handles for WTI and Brent respectively. Spot gold is deriving support from the USD's pullback and renewed geopolitical focus on both N.Korea and Russia, with the yellow metal having surpassed its 10-DMA but currently capped by the 21-DMA at USD 1659/oz; base metals similarly firmer on the USD action and overnight trade. Russia's Kremlin exports of Russian fertiliser was an integral part of grain deal, but difficulties remain; says Russia's participation in the deal remains suspended, via Reuters; prior to this, Turkish President Erdogan said the Russian Defence Minister told his Turkish counterpart the the grain deal will resume; grain deal will resume on mid-day Wednesday. Most recently, Russia is to resume participation in the Black Sea grain deal, according to Reuters citing the Defence Ministry; it was possible to obtain written guarantees from Kyiv not to use grain corridor for military operations against Russia. Geopolitics Ukrainian President Zelensky said they need reliable, long-term defence for the grain corridor and that Russia must be told it will receive a firm world response if it takes steps to disrupt Ukrainian food exports, according to Reuters. Senior Russian military leaders recently had conversations to discuss when and how Moscow might use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, according to NYT citing sources, President Putin was not part of the conversations; "The intelligence about the conversations was circulated inside the U.S. government in mid-October.". North Korea has reportedly fired at least 23 missiles in total from the east and west coasts on Wednesday the initial rounds of which prompted South Korea to place its Ulleung Island under an air raid warning and was the first time North Korean missiles fell near the South's territorial waters, according to Yonhap and YTN. South Korean President Yoon ordered a swift and firm response and South Korea launched air-to-ground missiles which were fired towards the north of the maritime border, while South Korea closed some air routes off the east coast of the Korean peninsula after North Korea's missile launches, according to the Transport Ministry cited by Reuters. US Event Calendar 07:00: Oct. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -1.7% 08:15: Oct. ADP Employment Change, est. 185,000, prior 208,000 14:00: Nov. FOMC Rate Decision DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap As we arrive at the latest decision day for the Fed, any remaining hopes of a dovish pivot continued to fizzle out over the last 24 hours, with futures once again pricing in a terminal fed funds rate above 5%. The main driver behind that was another round of US data yesterday, which showed that labour markets were tighter and the economy was in better shape than previously thought, which in theory should give the Fed more space to keep hiking rates. In turn, that prompted a big turnaround for risk assets, with the S&P 500 (-0.41%) losing ground for a second day running, whilst 10yr Treasury yields shot up by more than +15bps intraday after the releases came out. Ahead of those releases, there had actually been a strong rally across multiple asset classes thanks to speculation that China might ease up on their Covid restrictions (more on which below). But the latest data caused a sharp reversal shortly after US markets opened, particularly given the news that US job openings had unexpectedly risen in September to 10.717m (vs. 9.750m expected), alongside an upward revision to the August number. That means there were still 1.86 job openings per unemployed worker in September, which is creating significant inflationary pressures, and suggests that the decline in job openings in August to a one-year low might have been a blip. On top of that, the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their jobs (which is strongly correlated with wage growth) remained at 2.7% for a third month running. Just as the labour market appeared to be in surprising strength, there was an additional dose of optimism about the economy from the ISM manufacturing reading for October, which came in at 50.2 (vs. 50.0 expected). Although it’s true that was the weakest reading since May 2020, it was still a touch better than expected and came amidst improvements in the employment (50.0) and new orders (49.2) components relative to last month, which gave further ground for optimism. In addition, the final manufacturing PMI for October was revised up half a point from the flash reading to 50.4, leaving it back above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction. When it comes to today’s policy decision, the Fed are widely expected to hike rates by 75bps for a fourth consecutive meeting. But the more important question for markets today (and where there’s considerably more doubt) is whether the Fed might signal a downshift in the pace of hikes at subsequent meetings. This is a tricky balancing act for them, since any signal of a pivot risks leading to easier financial conditions that makes their job of bringing down inflation even harder. That was what happened after the July meeting, where investors interpreted matters in a dovish light, and the Fed had to reiterate their hawkish intent, culminating in Chair Powell’s August speech at Jackson Hole. Our US economists write in their preview (link here) that Chair Powell’s press conference will likely not pre-judge the outcome of the December meeting and will emphasise the data dependence of the decision, not least with another couple of CPI reports and jobs reports beforehand. They expect him to leave open the prospects of another 75bp hike in December, but present a strong base case for downshifting the pace of hikes by early 2023 at the latest. Ahead of the Fed’s decision, markets moved to ratchet back up their expectations of how high they’re set to take rates over the coming months. Indeed, the rate priced in by end-2023 moved up another +9.9bps to 4.66%, which brings its gains over the last 3 sessions to +37.1bps and means that the bulk of the move lower after October 21 thanks to Nick Timiraos’ WSJ article has now reversed. In light of that, 2yr Treasuries yield gained +6.2bps on the day to reach 4.54%, with the moves higher occurring entirely after those strong US data releases mentioned above. The 10yr Treasury yield (-0.6bps) did close slightly lower at 4.04%, but that was still more than +10bps above its intraday levels prior to the releases and in overnight trading they’re back up +0.9bps to 4.05%. Over in Europe, sovereign bonds followed a similar pattern over the day, with a sharp intraday reversal following the US data, although yields on 10yr bunds (-1.0bps), OATs (-0.1bps) and BTPs (-3.5bps) still ended the session lower. Those expectations of a more hawkish Fed led to a reversal for equities too, and the S&P 500 (-0.41%) swiftly gave up its gains after the open to fall back for a second consecutive session. Tech stocks led the declines once again, and there was a significant milestone for the FANG+ index (-0.95%) of megacap tech stocks, with the index closing at a 2-year low, having now shed -45.65% since its peak just under a year ago. European equities ended the day in positive territory, albeit only after giving up a decent chunk of their earlier gains, with the STOXX 600 moving from an intraday peak of +1.51% to only close up +0.53%. That earlier momentum had been propelled in large part thanks to speculation about a potential end to Covid restrictions in China, with that backdrop seeing the CSI 300 post its strongest daily performance since March yesterday. The moves were triggered by unconfirmed posts on social media that China was forming a committee which would look at relaxing restrictions, with a suggestion for reopening in March 2023. However, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that he was “not aware of what you mentioned” when asked about the issue at a press briefing on Tuesday. Overnight in Asia, that continued speculation about a policy reversal has seen a fresh outperformance in a number of equity indices, with the Hang Seng (+2.50), the CSI 300 (+1.48%) and the Shanghai Comp (+1.29%) all recording solid gains. That’s in spite of the absence of any official confirmation about a change in China’s policy. Elsewhere, some of the other indices have been more mixed, with the Nikkei (-0.10%) slightly lower and the Kospi (+0.24%) recording a modest advance, although US futures are pointing in a more positive direction, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.32% ahead of the Fed’s decision. On the data side, there were some fresh indications of global inflationary pressures overnight, with South Korea’s CPI inflation seeing its first rebound in three months as it rose to +5.7% as expected, whilst core CPI surpassed expectations to hit a 13-year high of +4.8% (vs. 4.5% expected). In the meantime, we also heard from Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda who reiterated their dovish policy, saying that they were not thinking of rate hikes or changing their yield curve control policies now. Back in the US, we’re now less than a week away from the mid-term elections on Tuesday, and momentum has remained with the Republicans in recent days. According to FiveThirtyEight’s model, they now have a 51% chance of taking the Senate, which is up from 30% only six weeks ago, whilst the chances of them regaining the House now stand at 83%. To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Fed’s latest policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference. In the meantime, ECB speakers today include Makhlouf, Villeroy and Nagel. On the data side, we’ll get October data on German unemployment, the final Euro Area manufacturing PMIs, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for the US. Finally, earnings releases include Qualcomm, CVS Health and Booking Holdings. Tyler Durden Wed, 11/02/2022 - 08:10.....»»

Spooky Torts: The 2022 List Of Litigation Horrors Authored by Jonathan Turley, Here is my annual list of Halloween torts and crimes. Halloween of course remains a holiday seemingly designed for personal injury lawyers around the world and this year’s additions show why. Halloween has everything for a torts-filled holiday: battery, trespass, defamation, nuisance, product liability and more. Particularly with the recent tragedy in South Korea, our annual listing is not intended to belittle the serious losses that can occur on this and other holidays. However, my students and I often discuss the remarkably wide range of torts that comes with All Hallow’s Eve. So, with no further ado, here is this year’s updated list of actual cases related to Halloween. In October 2021, Danielle Thomas, former exotic dancer known as “Pole Assassin” (and the girlfriend of Texas special teams coach Jeff Banks), found herself embroiled in a Halloween tort after the monkey previously used in her act bit a wandering child at the house of horror she created for Halloween. Thomas considers the monkey Gia to be her “emotional support animal.” Thomas goes all out for the holiday and converted her home into a house of horrors, including a maze. She said that the area with Gia was closed off and, as for petting, “no one is allowed to touch her!”  She publicly insisted “No one was viciously attack this a lie, a whole lie! She was not apart of any haunted house, the kid did not have permission to be on the other side of my property!” She even posted a walk-through video of the scene to show the steps that a child would have to take to get to the monkey. Don’t worry folks I got the #MonkeyGate video pic.twitter.com/TAy6leBqDS — Christian Sykes (@ctsykes13) November 2, 2021 She insists in the video that she knows all of the governing legal rules and shows the path in detail. It is not helpful on the defense side: it is not a long path and easy to see how a child might get lost. She later deleted her account (likely after her attorney regained consciousness). The case raises an array of torts including animal liability, licensee liability, negligence, and attractive nuisance claims. In 2022, we often added conversion to the usual torts where multiple versions of the new giant skeleton were stolen, including one particularly ham-handed effort in Austin, Texas caught on video tape: * * * In Berea, Ohio, the promoters of the 7 Floors of Hell haunted house at the Cuyahoga County Fairgrounds appreciate realism but one employee took it a bit too far. An actor brandished this real bowie knife as a prop while pretending to stab an 11-year-old boy’s foot. He then stabbed him. The accident occurred when the actor, 22, approached the boy and stabbed at the ground as a scare tactic. He got too close and accidentally cut through the child’s shoe, piercing a toe. The injury was not serious since the boy was treated at the scene and continued through the haunted house. The case raises an interesting question of “respondeat superior” for the negligent acts by employees in the course of employment. The question is what is in the scope of employment.  The question is often whether an employee was on a “detour” or “frolic.”  A detour can be outside of an employer’s policies or guidelines but will be the basis for liability as sufficiently related to the employment.  A frolic is a more serious deviation where the employee is acting in his own capacity or for his own interests. In this case, the actor was clearly within his scope of employment in trying to scare the visitors. However, he admitted that he bought the knife in his personal capacity and agreed it “was not a good idea” to use it at the haunted house, according to FOX 8. That still does not negate the negligence — both direct and vicarious liability. There was a failure to monitor employees and safeguard the scene. His negligence is also likely attributable to the employer. Finally, this would constitute battery as a reckless, though unintended, act. * * * In 2020, parents in Indiana were given a warning in a Facebook post that the Indiana State Police seized holiday edibles featuring packaging that resembles that of actual name brands — but with the word “medicated” printed on the wrapper along with cannabis symbols. The packaging makes it easy for homeowners to confuse packages and give out drugged candy.  Indeed, last year, two children were given THC-infused gummies while trick-or-treating, according to police in Waterford, Conn.. Such candies include the main active ingredient linked to the psychedelic effects of cannabis – the plant from which marijuana is derived. Even an accidental distribution of such infused candies would constitute child endangerment and be subject to both negligence and strict liability actions in torts. * * * I previously have written how the fear of razor blades in apples appears an urban legend. Well, give it enough time and someone will prove you wrong. That is the allegation of Waterbury, Connecticut police who say that Jason A. Racz, 37, put razor blades in candy bags of at least two trick-or-treaters. Racz’ razor defense may not be particularly convincing to the average juror. According to police, “Racz explained that the razor blades were accidentally spilled or put into the candy bowl he used to hand out candy from.” However, police noted that he “provided no explanation as to how the razor blades were handed out to the children along with the candy.” The charge was brought soon after Halloween in 2019. Racz is now charged with risk of injury to a minor, reckless endangerment and interfering with a police officer. He could also be charged with battery and intentional infliction of emotional distress, but it is not clear if any children were injured. *  *  * Steven Novak, an artist from Dallas, Texas, believes that Halloween should be a bit more than a traditional plastic pumpkin and a smiling ghost.  Police were called to his home in Texas over a possible murder. They found a dummy impaled on a chainsaw with fake blood; another dummy hanging from his roof; a wheelbarrow full of fake dismembered body parts and other gory scenes.  Neighbors called the display too traumatizing.  Police responded by taking pictures for their families. A tort action for intentional infliction of emotional distress is likely to fail. There must be not just outrageous conduct but conduct intended to cause severe emotional distress. Courts regularly exclude injuries associated with the exercise of free speech or artistic expression . . . even when accompanied by buckets of fake blood. *  *  * The Dorney Park and Wildwater Kingdom in Pennsylvania tells customers that, if they come to their Halloween Haunt, “Fear is waiting for you.” In 2019, a new case was filed by Shannon Sacco and her daughter over injuries sustained from “unreasonable scaring.” They are seeking $150,000. The Allentown Morning Call reported that “M.S.” went with friends to the amusement park and was immediately approached by costumed characters. She said that she told them that she did not want to be scared and backed away. A little further on into the park however a costumed employee allegedly ran up behind her and shouted loudly. The startled girl fell forward and suffered what were serious but unspecified injuries. She alleges ongoing medical issues and inability to return to fully functioning activities. The lawsuit also alleges that the park failed to inform Sacco or her daughter that they could buy a glow-in-the-dark “No Boo” necklace to ward off costumed employees. The obvious issue beyond the alleged negligence of the Park is the plaintiffs’ own conduct. Pennsylvania is a comparative negligence state so contributory negligence by the plaintiffs would not be a bar to recovery. See Pennsylvania General Assembly Statute §7102. However, it is a modified comparative negligence state so they must show that they are 50 percent or less at fault. If they are found 51 percent at fault, they are barred entirely from recovery. Even if they can recover, their damages are reduced by the percentage of their own fault in going to a park during a Halloween-themed event. *  *  * In 2019, there is a rare public petition to shutdown a haunted house that has been declared to be a “torture chamber.” The move to “shut down McKamey Manor” that has been signed by thousands who believe Russ McKamey, the owner of McKamey Manor, has made his house so scary that it constitutes torture, including an allegation of waterboarding of visitors. The haunted house requires participants to get a doctor’s note and sign a 40-page waiver before they enter. People are seeking the closure of the houses located in Summertown, Tennessee and Huntsville, Alabama. McKamey insists that it is just a “crazy haunted house” and stops well short of the legal-definition of torture. The question is whether consent vitiates any extreme frights or contacts. He is also clear in both the waiver and the website that the house is an “extreme haunted attraction” for legal adults who “must be in GREAT HEALTH to participate.” Not only do people enter with full knowledge but there is no charge. McKamey owns five dogs and only requires a bag of dog food for entry. Presumably the food is cursed. *  *  * An earlier case was recently made public from an accident on October 15, 2011 in San Diego. Scott Griffin and friends went to the Haunted Trail in San Diego. The ticket warns of “high-impact scares” along a mile path with actors brandishing weapons and scary items. Griffen, 44, and his friends went on the trail and were going out of what they thought was an exit. Suddenly an actor jumped out as part of what the attraction called “the Carrie effect” of a last minute scare. While Griffen said that he tried to back away, the actor followed him with a running chain saw. He fell backwards and injured his wrists. The 2013 lawsuit against the Haunted Hotel, Inc., in the Superior Court of California, County of San Diego, alleged negligence and assault. However, Superior Court Judge Katherine Bacal granted a motion to dismiss based on assumption of the risk. She noted that Griffin “was still within the scare experience that he purchased.” After all, “Who would want to go to a haunted house that is not scary?” Griffen then appealed and the attorney for the Haunted Hotel quoted Hunter S. Thompson: “Buy the ticket, take the ride.” Again, the court agreed. In upholding the lower court, Justice Gilbert Nares wrote, “Being chased within the physical confines of the Haunted Trail by a chain saw–carrying maniac is a fundamental part and inherent risk of this amusement. Griffin voluntarily paid money to experience it.” *  *  * In 2018, a case emerged in Madison, Tennessee from the Nashville Nightmare Haunted House.   James “Jay” Yochim and three of his pals went to the attraction composed of  four separate haunted houses, an escape room, carnival games and food vendors.  In the attraction, people are chased by characters with chainsaws and other weapons.  They were not surprised therefore when a man believed to be an employee in a Halloween costume handed Tawnya Greenfield a knife and told her to stab Yochim.  She did and thought it was all pretend until blood started to pour from Yochim’s arm. The knife was real and the man was heard apologizing “I didn’t know my knife was that sharp.” It is not clear how even stabbing with a dull knife would be considered safe. The attraction issued a statement: “As we have continued to review the information, we believe that an employee was involved in some way, and he has been placed on leave until we can determine his involvement. We are going over all of our safety protocols with all of our staff again, as the safety and security of all of our patrons is always our main concern. We have not been contacted by the police, but we will cooperate fully with any official investigation.” The next scary moment is likely to be in the form of a torts complaint.  Negligence against the company under respondeat superior is an obvious start. There is also a novel battery charge where he could claim that he was stabbed by trickery or deceit of a third person. There are also premises liability issues for invitees.  As for Greenfield, she claims to have lacked consent due to a misrepresentation.  She could be charged with negligence or a recklessness-based theory of battery, though that seems less likely.  Finally, there is an interesting possible claim of negligent infliction of emotional distress in being tricked or misled into stabbing an individual. *  *  * Last year, a 21-year-old man surnamed Cheung was killed by a moving coffin in a haunted house in Hong Kong’s Ocean Park.   The attraction is called “Buried Alive” and involves hopping into coffins for a downward slide into a dark and scary space. The ride promises to provide people with the “experience of being buried alive alone, before fighting their way out of their dark and eerie grave.” Cheung took a wrong turn and went backstage — only to be hit by one of the metal coffins.  The hit in the head killed Cheung who was found later in the haunted house. While there is no word of a tort lawsuit (and tort actions are rarer in Hong Kong), the case is typical of Halloween torts involving haunted houses.  The decor often emphasizes spooky and dark environs which both encourage terror and torts among the participants.  In this case, an obvious claim could be made that it is negligence to allow such easy access to the operational area of the coffin ride — particularly in a dark space.  As a business invitee, Cheung would have a strong case in the United States. *  *  * A previous addition to the Spooky torts was the odd case of Assistant Prosecutor Chris White. White clearly does not like spiders, even fake ones. That much was clear given his response to finding fake spiders scattered around the West Virginia office for Halloween. White pulled a gun and threatened to shoot the fake spiders, explaining that he is “deathly afraid of spiders.” It appears that his arachnophobia (fear of spiders) was not matched by a hoplophobia (fear of firearms). The other employees were reportedly shaken up and Logan County Prosecuting Attorney John Bennett later suspended White. Bennett said “He said they had spiders everyplace and he said he told them it wasn’t funny, and he couldn’t stand them, and he did indeed get a gun out. It had no clip in it, of course they wouldn’t know that, I wouldn’t either if I looked at it, to tell you the truth.” It is not clear how White thought threatening the decorative spiders would keep them at bay or whether he was trying to deter those who sought to deck out the office in a Halloween theme. He was not charged by his colleagues with a crime but was suspended for his conduct. This is not our first interaction with White. He was the prosecutor in the controversial (and in my view groundless) prosecution of Jared Marcum, who was arrested after wearing a NRA tee shirt to school. *  *  * Another new case from the last year involves a murder. Donnie Cochenour Jr., 27, got a seasonal break (at least temporarily) on detecting his alleged murder of Rebecca J. Cade, 31. Cade’s body was left hanging on a fence and was mistaken by neighbors as a Halloween decoration. The “decoration” was found by a man walking his dog and reported by construction workers. A large rock was found with blood on it nearby. Donnie Cochenour Jr., 27, was later arrested and ordered held on $2 million bond after he pleaded not guilty to murder. Cade apparently had known Cochenour since he was a child — a relationship going back 20 years. Cochenour reportedly admitted that they had a physical altercation in the field. Police found a blood trail that indicates that Cade was running from Cochenour and tried to climb the fence in an attempt to get away. She was found hanging from her sleeve and is believed to have died on the fence from blunt force trauma to the head and neck. Her body exhibited “defensive wounds.” When police arrested Cochenour, they found blood on is clothing. *  *  * In 2015, federal and state governments were cracking down on cosmetic contact lenses to give people spooky eyes. Owners and operators of 10 Southern California businesses were criminally charged in federal court with illegally selling cosmetic contact lenses without prescriptions. Some of the products that were purchased in connection with this investigation were contaminated with dangerous pathogens that can cause eye injury, blindness and loss of the eye. The products are likely to result in a slew of product liability actions. *  *  * Another 2015 case reflects that the scariest part of shopping for Halloween costumes or decorations may be the trip to the Party Store. Shanisha L. Saulsberry sued U.S. Toy Company, Inc. after she was injured shopping for Halloween costumes and a store rack fell on her. The jury awarded Saulsberry $7,216.00 for economic damages. She appealed the damages after evidence of her injuries were kept out of the trial by the court. However, the Missouri appellate court affirmed the ruling. *  *  * The case of Castiglione v. James F. Q., 115 A.D.3d 696, shows a classic Halloween tort. The lawsuit alleged that, on Halloween 2007, the defendant’s son threw an egg which hit the plaintiff’s daughter in the eye, causing her injuries. The plaintiff also brought criminal charges against the defendant’s son arising from this incident and the defendant’s son pleaded guilty to assault in the third degree (Penal Law § 120.00 [2]). However, at his deposition, the defendant’s son denied throwing the egg which allegedly struck the plaintiff’s daughter. Because of the age of the accused, the case turned on the youthful offender statute (CPL art 720) that provides special measures for persons found to be youthful offenders which provides “Except where specifically required or permitted by statute or upon specific authorization of the court, all official records and papers, whether on file with the court, a police agency or the division of criminal justice services, relating to a case involving a youth who has been adjudicated a youthful offender, are confidential and may not be made available to any person or public or private agency [with certain exceptions not relevant here]” (CPL 720.35 [2]). This covers both the physical documents constituting the official record and the information contained within those documents. Thus, in relation to the Halloween egging, the boy was protected from having to disclose information or answer questions regarding the facts underlying the adjudication *  *  * We discussed the perils of pranks and “jump frights,” particularly with people who do not necessarily consent. In the case of Christian Faith Benge, there appears to have been consent in visiting a haunted house. The sophomore from New Miami High School in Ohio died from a prior medical condition at the at Land of Illusion haunted house. She was halfway through the house with about 100 friends and family members when she collapsed. She had an enlarged heart four times its normal size. She also was born with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, which prevents the lungs from developing normally. This added stress to the heart. In such a case, consent and comparative negligence issues effectively bar recovery in most cases. It is a terrible loss of a wonderful young lady. However, some fatalities do not always come with liability and this appears such a case. Source: Journal News *  *  * As discussed earlier, In Franklin County, Tennessee, children may want to avoid the house of Dale Bryant Farris, 65, this Halloween . . . or houses near him. Bryant was arrested after shooting a 15-year-old boy who was with kids toilet-papering their principal’s front yard. Bryant came out of his house a couple of houses down from the home of Principal Ken Bishop and allegedly fired at least two blasts — one hitting a 15-year-old boy in the right foot, inner left knee, right palm, right thigh and right side of his torso above the waistline. Tennessee is a Castle Doctrine state and we have seen past cases like the notorious Tom Horn case in Texas where homeowners claimed the right to shoot intruders on the property of their neighbors. It is not clear if Bryant will argue that he was trying to stop intruders under the law, but it does not appear a good fit with the purpose or language of the law. Farris faces a charge of aggravated assault and another of reckless endangerment. He could also face civil liability from the boy’s family. This would include assault and battery. There is a privilege of both self-defense and defense of others. This privilege included reasonable mistaken self-defense or defense of others. This would not fit such a claim since he effectively pursued the boys by going to a neighbor’s property and there was no appearance of a threat or weapon since they were only armed with toilet paper. The good news is that Farris can now discard the need for a costume. He can go as himself at Halloween . . . as soon as he is out of jail. *  *  * As shown below, Halloween nooses have a bad record at parties. In 2012, a club called Pink Punters had a decorative noose that it had used for a number of years that allowed party goers to take pictures as a hanging victim on Halloween. Of course, you guessed it. A 25-year old man was found hanging from the noose in an accidental self-lynching at the nightclub in England. The case would appear easy to defend in light of the assumption of the risk and patent danger. The noose did not actually tighten around necks. Moreover, this is England where tort claims can be more challenging. In the United States, however, there would remain the question of a foreseeable accident in light of the fact that patrons are drinking heavily and drugs are often present at nightclubs. Since patrons are known to put their heads in the noose, the combination is intoxication and a noose is not a particularly good mix. *  *  * Grant v. Grant. A potential criminal and tort case comes to us from Pennsylvania where, at a family Halloween bonfire, Janet Grant spotted a skunk and told her son Thomas Grant to fetch a shotgun and shoot it. When he returned, Janet Grant shined a flashlight on the animal while her son shot it. It was only then that they discovered that Thomas Grant had just shot his eight-year-old cousin in her black and white Halloween costume. What is amazing is that authorities say that they are considering possible animal gaming charges. Fortunately, the little girl survived with a wound to the shoulder and abdomen. The police in Beaver County have not brought charges and alcohol does not appear to have been a factor. Putting aside the family connection (which presumably makes the likelihood of a lawsuit unlikely), there is a basis for both battery and negligence in such a wounding. With children in the area, the discharge of the firearm would seem pretty unreasonable even with the effort to illuminate “the animal.” Moreover, this would have to have been a pretty large skunk to be the size of an eight-year-old child. Just for the record, the average weight of a standard spotted skunk in that area is a little over 1 pound. The biggest skunk is a hog-nosed skunk that can reach up to 18 pounds. *  *  * We also have a potential duel case out of Aiken, South Carolina from one year ago. A 10-year-old Aiken trick-or-treater pulled a gun on a woman who joked that she wanted take his candy on Halloween. Police found that his brother, also ten, had his own weapon. The 28-year-old woman said that she merely joked with a group of 10 or so kids that she wanted their candy when the ten-year-old pulled out a 9 mm handgun and said “no you’re not.” While the magazine was not in the gun, he had a fully loaded magazine in his possession. His brother had the second gun. Both appear to have belonged to their grandfather. The children were released to their parents and surprisingly there is no mention of charges against the grandfather. While the guns appear to have been taken without his permission, it shows great negligence in the handling and storage of the guns. What would be interesting is a torts lawsuit by the woman for assault against the grandfather. The actions of third parties often cut off liability as a matter of proximate causation, though courts have held that you can be liable for creating circumstances where crimes or intentional torts are foreseeable. For example, a landlord was held liable in for crimes committed in his building in Kline v. 1500 Massachusetts Avenue. Here the grandfather’s negligence led to the use of the guns by these children. While a lawsuit is unlikely, it would certainly be an interesting — and not unwarranted — claim. *  *  * Tauton High School District The Massachusetts case of Smith v. Taunton High School involves a Halloween prank gone bad. A teacher at Taunton High School asked a 15-year-old student to answer a knock on the classroom door. The boy was startled when he came face to face with a man in a mask and carrying what appeared to be a running chainsaw. The student fell back, tripped and fractured a kneecap. His family is now suing though the state cap on such lawsuits is $100,000. Dussault said the family is preparing a lawsuit, but is exploring ways to avoid a trial and do better than the $100,000 cap when suing city employees. This could make for an interesting case, but would be better for the Plaintiffs as a bench versus a jury trial. Many jurors are likely to view this as simply an attempt at good fun by the teacher and an unforeseeable accident. Source: CBS *  *  * In Florida, a woman has sued for defamation, harassment and emotional distress after her neighbor set up decorations that included an insane asylum sign that pointed to her yard and a fake tombstone with an inscription she viewed as a reference to her single status. It read, “At 48 she had no mate no date/ It’s no debate she looks 88.” This could be a wonderful example of an opinion defense to defamation. As for emotional distress, I think the cause of the distress pre-dates Halloween. *  *  * Pieczonka v. Great America (2012) A family is suing Great America for a tort in 2011 at Great Falls. Father Marian Pieczonka alleged in his complaint that his young daughter Natalie was at the park in Gurnee, Illinois for the Halloween-themed Fright Fest when a park employee dressed in costume jumped out of a port-a-potty and shot her with a squirt gun. He then reported chased the screaming girl until she fell and suffered injuries involving scrapes and bruises. The lawsuit alleges negligence in encouraging employees to chase patrons given the tripping hazards. They are asking $30,000 in the one count complaint but could face assumption or comparative negligence questions, particularly in knowingly attending an event called “Fright Fest” where employees were known to jump out at patrons. *  *  * A lawsuit appears inevitable after a tragic accident in St. Louis where a 17-year-old girl is in a critical condition after she became tangled in a noose at a Halloween haunted house called Creepyworld. The girl was working as an actress at the attraction and was found unconscious. What is particularly chilling is that people appeared to have walked by her hanging in the house and thought she was a realistic prop. Notably, the attraction had people walk through to check on the well-being of actors and she was discovered but not for some time after the accident. She is in critical condition. Creepyworld employs 100 people and can expect a negligence lawsuit. *  *  * Rabindranath v. Wallace (2010) Peter Wallace, 24, was returning on a train with fellow Hiberinian soccer fans in England — many dressed in costumes (which the English call “fancy dress.”) One man was dressed as a sheep and Wallace thought it was funny to constantly flick his lighter near the cotton balls covering his body — until he burst into flames. Friends then made the matter worse by trying to douse the flames but throwing alcohol on the flaming man-sheep. Even worse, the victim Arjuna Rabindranath, 24, is an Aberdeen soccer fan. Rabindranath’s costume was composed of a white tracksuit and cotton wool. Outcome: Wallace is the heir to a large farm estate and agreed to pay damages to the victim, who experienced extensive burns. What is fascinating is the causation issue. Here, Wallace clearly caused the initial injury which was then made worse by the world’s most dim-witted rescue attempt in the use of alcohol to douse a fire. In the United States, the original tortfeasor is liable for such injuries caused by negligent rescues. Indeed, he is liable for injured rescuers. The rescuers can also be sued in most states. However, many areas of Europe have good Samaritan laws protecting such rescuers. Notably, Wallace had a previous football-related conviction which was dealt with by a fine. In this latest case, he agreed to pay 25,000 in compensation. The case is obviously similar to one of our prior Halloween winners below: Ferlito v. Johnson & Johnson *  *  * Perper v. Forum Novelties (2010) Sherri Perper, 56, of Queens, New York has filed a personal injury lawsuit due to defective shoes allegedly acquired from Forum Novelties. The shoes were over-sized clown shoes that she was wearing as part of her Halloween costume in 2008. She tripped and fell. She is reportedly claiming that the shoes were dangerous. While “open and obvious” is no longer an absolute defense in such products cases, such arguments may still be made to counter claims of defective products. In most jurisdictions, you must show that the product is more dangerous than the expectations of the ordinary consumer. It is hard to see how Perper could be surprised that it is a bit difficult to walk in over-sized shoes. Then there is the problem of assumption of the risk. *  *  * Dickson v. Hustonville Haunted House and Greg Walker (2009) Glenda Dickson, 51, broke four vertebrae in her back when she fell out of a second story window left open at the Hustonville Haunted House, owned by Greg Walker. Dickson was in a room called “The Crying Lady in the Bed” when one of the actors came up behind the group and started screaming. Everyone jumped in fright and Dickson jumped back through an open window that was covered with a sheet — a remarkably negligent act by the haunted house operator. She landed on a fire escape and then fell down some stairs. *  *  * Maryland v. Janik (2009) Sgt. Eric Janik, 37, went to a haunted house called the House of Screams with friends and when confronted by a character dressed as Leatherface with a chainsaw (sans the chain, of course), Janik pulled out his service weapon and pointed it at the man, who immediately dropped character, dropped the chainsaw, and ran like a bat out of Halloween Hell. Outcome: Janik is charged with assault and reckless endangerment for his actions. Charges pending. *  *  * Patrick v. South Carolina (2009) Quentin Patrick, 22, an ex-convict in Sumter, South Carolina shot and killed a trick-or-treater T.J. Darrisaw who came to his home on Halloween — spraying nearly 30 rounds with an assault rifle from inside his home after hearing a knock on the door. T.J.’s 9-year- old brother, Ahmadre Darrisaw, and their father, Freddie Grinnell, were injured but were released after being treated at a hospital. Patrick left his porch light on — a general signal for kids that the house was open for trick and treating. The boy’s mother and toddler sibling were in the car. Patrick emptied the AK-47 — shooting at least 29 times through his front door, walls and windows after hearing the knock. He said that he had been previously robbed. That may be so, but it is unclear what an ex-con was doing with a gun, let alone an AK-47. OUTCOME: Charges pending for murder. *  *  * Kentucky v. Watkins (2008) As a Halloween prank, restaurant manager Joe Watkins of the Chicken Ranch in Paris, Kentucky thought it was funny to lie in a pool of blood on the floor. After seeing Watkins on the floor, the woman went screaming from the restaurant to report the murder. Watkins said that the prank was for another employee and that he tried to call the woman back on her cell phone. OUTCOME: Under Kentucky law, a person can be charged with a false police report, even if he is not the one who filed it. The police charged Watkins for causing the woman to file the report — a highly questionable charge. *  *  * Mays v. Gretna Athletic Boosters␣95-717 (La.App. 5 Cir. 01/17/96) “Defendant operated a haunted house at Mel Ott Playground in Gretna to raise money for athletic programs. The haunted house was constructed of 2×4s and black visqueen. There were numerous cubbyholes where “scary” exhibits were displayed. One booster club member was stationed at the entrance and one at the exit. Approximately eighteen people participated in the haunted house by working the exhibits inside. Near and along the entrance of the haunted house was a bathroom building constructed of cinder blocks. Black visqueen covered this wall. Plaintiff and her daughter’s friend, about 10 years old, entered the haunted house on October 29, 1988. It was nighttime and was dark inside. Plaintiff testified someone jumped out and hollered, scaring the child into running. Plaintiff was also frightened and began to run. She ran directly into the visqueen-covered cinder block wall. There was no lighting in that part of the haunted house. Plaintiff hit the wall face first and began bleeding profusely from her nose. She testified two surgeries were required to repair her nose.” OUTCOME: In order to get the proper effect, haunted houses are dark and contain scary and/or shocking exhibits. Patrons in a Halloween haunted house are expected to be surprised, startled and scared by the exhibits but the operator does not have a duty to guard against patrons reacting in bizarre, frightened and unpredictable ways. Operators are duty bound to protect patrons only from unreasonably dangerous conditions, not from every conceivable danger. As found by the Trial Court, defendant met this duty by constructing the haunted house with rooms of adequate size and providing adequate personnel and supervision for patrons entering the house. Defendant’s duty did not extend to protecting plaintiff from running in a dark room into a wall. Our review of the entire record herein does not reveal manifest error committed by the Trial Court or that the Trial Court’s decision was clearly wrong. Plaintiff has not shown the haunted house was unreasonably dangerous or that defendant’s actions were unreasonable. Thus, the Trial Court judgment must be affirmed. *  *  * Powell v. Jacor Communications␣ UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE SIXTH CIRCUIT 320 F.3d 599 (6th Cir.2003) “On October 15, 1999, Powell visited a Halloween season haunted house in Lexington, Kentucky that was owned and operated by Jacor. She was allegedly hit in the head with an unidentified object by a person she claims was dressed as a ghost. Powell was knocked unconscious and injured. She contends that she suffered a concussion and was put on bed rest and given medications by emergency-room physicians. Powell further claims that she now suffers from several neuropsychological disorders as a result of the incident.” OUTCOME: Reversed dismissal on the basis of tolling of statute of limitations. *  *  * Kansas City Light & Power Company v. Trimble␣ 315 Mo. 32; 285 S.W. 455 (1926) Excerpt: “A shapely pole to which, twenty-two feet from the ground is attached a non-insulated electric wire . . Upon a shapely pole were standard steps eighteen inches apart; about seventeen feet from the ground were telephone wires, and five feet above them was a non-insulated electric light wire. On Halloween, about nine o’clock, a bright fourteen-year-old boy and two companions met close to the pole, and some girls dressed as clowns came down the street. As they came near the boy, saying, “Who dares me to walk the wire?” began climbing the pole, using the steps, and ascended to the telephone cables, and thereupon his companions warned him about the live wire and told him to come down. He crawled upon the telephone cables to a distance of about ten feet from the pole, and when he reached that point a companion again warned him of the live wire over his head, and threatened to throw a rock at him and knock him off if he did not come down. Whereupon he turned about and crawled back to the pole, and there raised himself to a standing position, and then his foot slipped, and involuntarily he threw up his arm, his hand clutched the live wire, and he was shocked to death.” OUTCOME: Frankly, I am not sure why the pole was so “shapely” but the result was disappointing for the plaintiffs. Kansas City Light & Power Company v. Trimble: The court held that the appellate court extended the attractive nuisance doctrine beyond the court’s ruling decisions. The court held that appellate court’s opinion on the contributory negligence doctrine conflicted with the court’s ruling decisions. The court held that the administrator’s case should never have been submitted to the jury. The court quashed the appellate opinion. “To my mind it is inconceivable that a bright, intelligent boy, doing well in school, past fourteen years of age and living in the city, would not understand and appreciate the fact that it would be dangerous to come in contact with an electric wire, and that he was undertaking a dangerous feat in climbing up the pole; but even if it may be said that men might differ on that proposition, still in this case he was warned of the wire and of the danger on account of the wire and that, too, before he had reached a situation where there was any occasion or necessity of clutching the wire to avoid a fall. Not only was he twice warned but he was repeatedly told and urged to come down.” *  *  * Purtell v. Mason␣ 2006 U.S. Dist. LEXIS 49064 (E.D. Ill. 2006) “The Purtells filed the present lawsuit against Defendant Village of Bloomingdale Police Officer Bruce Mason after he requested that they remove certain Halloween tombstone “decorations” from their property. Evidence presented at trial revealed that the Purtells placed the tombstones referring to their neighbors in their front yard facing the street. The tombstones specifically referred to their neighbors, who saw the language on the tombstones. For instance, the tombstone that referred to the Purtells’ neighbor James Garbarz stated: Here Lies Jimmy, The OlDe Towne IdioT MeAn As sin even withouT his Gin No LonGer Does He wear That sTupiD Old Grin . . . Oh no, noT where they’ve sent Him! The tombstone referring to the Purtells’ neighbor Betty Garbarz read: BeTTe wAsN’T ReADy, BuT here she Lies Ever since that night she DieD. 12 feet Deep in this trench . . . Still wasn’T Deep enough For that wenches Stench! In addition, the Purtells placed a Halloween tombstone in their yard concerning their neighbor Diane Lesner stating: Dyean was Known for Lying So She was fried. Now underneath these daises is where she goes crazy!! Moreover, the jury heard testimony that Diane Lesner, James Garbarz, and Betty Garbarz were upset because their names appeared on the tombstones. Betty Garbarz testified that she was so upset by the language on the tombstones that she contacted the Village of Bloomingdale Police Department. She further testified that she never had any doubt that the “Bette” tombstone referred to her. After seeing the tombstones, she stated that she was ashamed and humiliated, but did not talk to Jeffrey Purtell about them because she was afraid of him. Defense counsel also presented evidence that the neighbors thought the language on the tombstones constituted threats and that they were alarmed and disturbed by their names being on the tombstones. James Garbarz testified that he interpreted the “Jimmy” tombstone as a threat and told the police that he felt threatened by the tombstone. He also testified that he had concerns about his safety and what Jeffrey Purtell might do to him.” OUTCOME: The court denied the homeowners’ post-trial motion for judgment as a matter of law pursuant to and motion for a new trial. Viewing the evidence and all reasonable inferences in a light most favorable to Officer Mason, a rational jury could conclude that the language on the tombstones constituted threats, that the neighbors were afraid of Jeffrey Purtell, and that they feared for their safety. As such the Court will not disturb the jury’s conclusion that the tombstones constituted fighting words — “those which by their very utterance inflict injury or tend to incite an immediate breach of the peace.” *  *  * Goodwin v. Walmart 2001 Ark. App. LEXIS 78 “On October 12, 1993, Randall Goodwin went to a Wal-Mart store located on 6th Street in Fayetteville, Arkansas. He entered through the front door and walked toward the sporting goods department. In route, he turned down an aisle known as the seasonal aisle. At that time, it was stocked with items for Halloween. This aisle could be observed from the cash registers. Mr. Goodwin took only a few steps down the aisle when he allegedly stepped on a wig and fell, landing on his right hip. As a result of the fall, Mr. Goodwin suffered severe physical injury to his back, including a ruptured disk. Kelly Evans, an employee for appellee, was standing at the end of her check-out stand when Mr. Goodwin approached her and informed her that he had fallen on an item in the seasonal aisle. She stated that she “saw what he was talking about.” OUTCOME: Judgment affirmed because the pleadings, depositions, and related summary judgment evidence did not show that there was any genuine issue of material fact as appellant customer did not establish a plastic bag containing the Halloween wig which allegedly caused him to slip and fall was on the floor as the result of appellee’s negligence or it had been on the floor for such a period of time that appellee knew or should have known about it. *  *  * Eversole v. Wasson␣ 80 Ill. App. 3d 94 (Ill. 1980) Excerpt: “The following allegations of count I, directed against defendant Wasson, were incorporated in count II against the school district: (1) plaintiff was a student at Villa Grove High School which was controlled and administered by the defendant school district, (2) defendant Wasson was employed by the school district as a teacher at the high school, (3) on November 1, 1978, at approximately 12:30 p.m., Wasson was at the high school in his regular capacity as a teacher and plaintiff was attending a regularly scheduled class, (4) Wasson sought and received permission from another teacher to take plaintiff from that teacher’s class and talk to him in the hallway, (5) once in the hallway, Wasson accused plaintiff of being one of several students he believed had smashed Wasson’s Halloween pumpkin at Wasson’s home, (6) without provocation from plaintiff, Wasson berated plaintiff, called him vile names, and threatened him with physical violence while shaking his fist in plaintiff’s face which placed plaintiff in fear of bodily injury, (7) Wasson then struck plaintiff about the head and face with both an open hand and a closed fist and shook and shoved him violently, (8) as a result, plaintiff was bruised about the head, neck, and shoulders; experienced pain and suffering in his head, body, and limbs; and became emotionally distraught causing his school performance and participation to be adversely affected . . .” OUTCOME: The court affirmed that portion of the lower court’s order that dismissed the count against the school district and reversed that portion of the lower court’s order that entered a judgment in bar of action as to this count. The court remanded the case to the lower court with directions to allow the student to replead his count against the school district. *  *  * Holman v. Illinois 47 Ill. Ct. Cl. 372 (1995) “The Claimant was attending a Halloween party at the Illinois State Museum with her grandson on October 26, 1990. The party had been advertised locally in the newspaper and through flier advertisements. The advertisement requested that children be accompanied by an adult, to come in costume and to bring a flashlight. The museum had set up different display rooms to hand out candy to the children and give the appearance of a “haunted house.” The Claimant entered the Discovery Room with her grandson. Under normal conditions the room is arranged with tables and low-seated benches for children to use in the museum’s regular displays. These tables and benches had been moved into the upper-right-hand corner of the Discovery Room next to the wall. In the middle of the room, there was a “slime pot” display where the children received the Halloween treat. The overhead fluorescent lights were turned off; however, the track lights on the left side of the room were turned on and dim. The track lights on the right side of the room near the tables and benches were not lit. The room was dark enough that the children’s flashlights could be clearly seen. There were approximately 40-50 people in the room at the time of the accident. The Claimant entered the room with her grandson. They proceeded in the direction of the pot in the middle of the room to see what was going in the pot. Her grandson then ran around the pot to the right corner toward the wall. As the Claimant followed, she tripped over the corner of a bench stored in that section of the room. She fell, making contact with the left corner of the bench. She experienced great pain in her upper left arm. The staff helped her to her feet. Her father was called and she went to the emergency room. Claimant has testified that she did not see the low-seating bench because it was so dimly lit in the Discovery Room. The Claimant was treated at the emergency room, where she was diagnosed with a fracture of the proximal humeral head of her left arm as a result of the fall. Claimant returned home, but was unable to work for 12 to 13 weeks.” OUTCOME: “The Claimant has met her burden of proof. She has shown by a preponderance of the evidence that the State acted negligently in placing furnishings in a dimly-lit room where visitors could not know of their location. The State did not exercise its duty of reasonable care. For the foregoing reasons, the Claimant is granted an award of $20,000.” *  *  * Ferlito v. Johnson & Johnson 771 F. Supp. 196 “Plaintiffs Susan and Frank Ferlito, husband and wife, attended a Halloween party in 1984 dressed as Mary (Mrs. Ferlito) and her little lamb (Mr. Ferlito). Mrs. Ferlito had constructed a lamb costume for her husband by gluing cotton batting manufactured by defendant Johnson & Johnson Products (“JJP”) to a suit of long underwear. She had also used defendant’s product to fashion a headpiece, complete with ears. The costume covered Mr. Ferlito from his head to his ankles, except for his face and hands, which were blackened with Halloween paint. At the party Mr. Ferlito attempted to light his cigarette by using a butane lighter. The flame passed close to his left arm, and the cotton batting on his left sleeve ignited. Plaintiffs sued defendant for injuries they suffered from burns which covered approximately one-third of Mr. Ferlito’s body.” OUTCOME: Ferlito v. Johnson & Johnson: Plaintiffs repeatedly stated in their response brief that plaintiff Susan Ferlito testified that “she would never again use cotton batting to make a costume.” Plaintiffs’ Answer to Defendant JJP’s Motion for J.N.O.V., pp. 1, 3, 4, 5. However, a review of the trial transcript reveals that plaintiff Susan Ferlito never testified that she would never again use cotton batting to make a costume. More importantly, the transcript contains no statement by plaintiff Susan Ferlito that a flammability warning on defendant JJP’s product would have dissuaded her from using the cotton batting to construct the costume in the first place. At oral argument counsel for plaintiffs conceded that there was no testimony during the trial that either plaintiff Susan Ferlito or her husband, plaintiff Frank J. Ferlito, would  have acted any different if there had been a flammability warning on the product’s package. The absence of such testimony is fatal to plaintiffs’ case; for without it, plaintiffs have failed to prove proximate cause, one of the essential elements of their negligence claim. In addition, both plaintiffs testified that they knew that cotton batting burns when it is exposed to flame. Susan Ferlito testified that she knew at the time she purchased the cotton batting that it would burn if exposed to an open flame. Frank Ferlito testified that he knew at the time he appeared at the Halloween party that cotton batting would burn if exposed to an open flame. His additional testimony that he would not have intentionally put a flame to the cotton batting shows that he recognized the risk of injury of which he claims JJP should have warned. Because both plaintiffs were already aware of the danger, a warning by JJP would have been superfluous. Therefore, a reasonable jury could not have found that JJP’s failure to provide a warning was a proximate cause of plaintiffs’ injuries. The evidence in this case clearly demonstrated that neither the use to which plaintiffs put JJP’s product nor the injuries arising from that use were foreseeable. But in Trivino v. Jamesway Corporation, the following result: The mother purchased cosmetic puffs and pajamas from the retailer. The mother glued the puffs onto the pajamas to create a costume for her child. While wearing the costume, the child leaned over the electric stove. The costume caught on fire, injuring the child. Plaintiffs brought a personal injury action against the retailer. The retailer filed a third party complaint against the manufacturer of the puffs, and the puff manufacturer filed a fourth party complaint against the manufacturer of the fibers used in the puffs. The retailer filed a motion for partial summary judgment as to plaintiffs’ cause of action for failure to warn. The trial court granted the motion and dismissed the actions against the manufacturers. On appeal, the court modified the judgment, holding that the mother’s use of the puffs was not unforeseeable as a matter of law and was a question for the jury. The court held that because the puffs were not made of cotton, as thought by the mother, there were fact issues as to the puffs’ flammability and defendants’ duty to warn. The court held that there was no prejudice to the retailer in permitting plaintiffs to amend their bill of particulars. OUTCOME: The court modified the trial court’s judgment to grant plaintiffs’ motion to amend their bill of particulars, deny the retailer’s motion for summary judgment, and reinstate the third party actions against the manufacturers. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/31/2022 - 19:05.....»»

In 1962, a feverish 13-day standoff took place between the United States and the Soviet Union. A New York Times article from the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis.JFK Library The ongoing war in Ukraine and increasingly escalatory rhetoric from Russia has raised fears of nuclear war. These developments have led to comparisons with the Cuban Missile Crisis, a 13-day standoff between the US and the Soviet Union that could have led to war. This month marks the 60th anniversary of the crisis. The ongoing war in Ukraine and heightened tensions between Russia and NATO have caused growing concerns about the possible use of a nuclear weapon, and such concerns have led to some comparisons to the 1962 Cuban missile crisisThe crisis was a period of extreme tension between the US and Soviet Union that could have ended in a nuclear catastrophe but fortunately did not.In October 1962, a dangerous 13-day standoff took place, with disaster being only narrowly avoided by careful diplomacy when it mattered most. This month marks the 60th anniversary of the missile crisis.Here's what went down:Tensions between the US and Cuba escalated in the 1950s after Fidel Castro ousted US-backed dictator Fulgencio Batista and culminated with the botched Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961 — a year before the missile crisis erupted.An April 17, 1961 map showing the locations of invading forces.Associated PressUS-backed Cuban exiles had attempted to invade the Bay of Pigs with the goal of overthrowing Castro and the Communist Party, but they were defeated by Castro's military within days.Cubana de Aviacion airliner burning after being hit by a rocket fired by raiders at Santiago, Cuba in April 1961.Associated PressCastro made a covert agreement in July 1962 with Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev to host Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba.Cuban Prime Minister Fidel Castro, left, is embraced by Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev in the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 20, 1960.Associated Press/Marty LederhandlerThe move was partly an effort to deter the US from attempting another invasion and partly a way to maximize the Soviet Union's nuclear strike capability. Missile site construction began that summer.US intelligence soon detected evidence of a Soviet arms build-up in Cuba, including anti-aircraft defense missiles.President John F. Kennedy opens at a Washington news conference on Sept. 13, 1962, with a lengthy statement on the Cuban situation.Associated PressPresident John F. Kennedy released a statement on Sept. 4 condemning the Soviet effort to boost Cuba's military power and said "the gravest issues would arise" should Cuba obtain offensive capability."It continues to be the policy of the United States that the Castro regime will not be allowed to export its aggressive purposes by force or the threat of force. It will be prevented by whatever means may be necessary from taking action against any part of the Western Hemisphere," Kennedy said."The United States, in conjunction with other Hemisphere countries, will make sure that while increased armaments will be a heavy burden to the unhappy people of Cuba themselves, they will be nothing more," he added.An American spy plane on Oct. 14 took photos that clearly showed construction sites for nuclear-armed medium and intermediate-range ballistic missiles.JFK LibraryThe standoff officially began on Oct. 16, when President John F. Kennedy was briefed on the photos.Map of the western hemisphere showing the full range of the nuclear missiles under construction in Cuba, used during the secret meetings on the Cuban crisis.JFK LibraryKennedy, anxious to maintain the appearance that the situation in the White House was business-as-usual, kept up his official schedule but met frequently with advisors to strategize.The Joint Chiefs of Staff urged Kennedy to launch an air strike followed by a full-on invasion of Cuba, but others called for a naval quarantine instead.On Oct. 17, more surveillance photos captured evidence additional sites and 16-32 missiles in Cuba. US military units began moving to military bases in the southeastern United States.A map of Cuba, with a partial listing of Soviet military equipment, used during the President's meetings with political and military advisors.JFK LibraryKennedy, meanwhile, kept up a normal schedule, attending a church service, eating lunch with the Crown Prince of Libya, and traveling to Connecticut to campaign for congressional candidates.Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko visited Kennedy in the White House on Oct. 18, claiming that the Soviet aid to Cuba did not pose a threat to the US and was merely defensive.President John F. Kennedy meets with Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko, center, in the White House, Oct. 18, 1962. At left is Soviet Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Dobrynin.Associated Press/Harvey GeorgesWithout revealing that he knew the extent of the nuclear arms build-up in Cuba, Kennedy repeated the warning he issued on Sept. 4, when he said the "gravest issues would arise" should offensive nuclear weapons be found on Cuba.By Oct. 20, Kennedy and his advisers had decided on a course of action: enforce a naval "quarantine" on Cuba to prevent Soviet military equipment and arms from being delivered.In this handout from the Department of Defense, Soviet ships are shown inbound to Cuba, purportedly carrying crates containing Ilyushin 28 (Beagle) fuselages as a deckload, Oct. 23, 1962.Department of Defense via Associated PressThe Kennedy administration used the term "quarantine" rather than "blockade," as the latter would have legally implied a state of war. A quarantine, however, allowed the US to continue receiving the support of the Organization of American States, the 35-member continental organization.On Oct. 22, Kennedy briefed his cabinet, Congress, and the public on the evidence of Soviet missiles in Cuba and announced the naval quarantine.President John F. Kennedy as he appeared on a television set in New York City Oct. 22, 1962 informing the American people of his decision to set up a naval blockade against Cuba.Associated PressKennedy forcefully addressed the public that evening on television, saying the quarantine would remain in place until the missile sites were dismantled and weapons deliveries to Cuba were halted.He added that any missile attack from Cuba would be interpreted as an attack from the Soviets, and would merit a "full retaliatory response" against the Soviets.Kennedy said that "this secret, swift, and extraordinary buildup of Communist missiles — in an area well-known to have a special and historical relationship to the United States and the nations of the Western Hemisphere, in violation of Soviet assurances, and in defiance of American and hemispheric policy — this sudden, clandestine decision to station strategic weapons for the first time outside of Soviet soil — is a deliberately provocative and unjustified change in the status quo which cannot be accepted by this country, if our courage and our commitments are ever to be trusted again by either friend or foe."Kennedy also sent a letter to Khrushchev urging his government not to take action that would "widen or deepen this already grave crisis."Page 2 of President Kennedy's letter to Premiere Khrushchev, October 22, 1962.JFK Library"In our discussions and exchanges on Berlin and other international questions, the one thing that has most concerned me has been the possibility that your Government would not correctly understand the will and determination of the United States in any given situation, since I have not assumed that you or any other sane man would, in this nuclear age, deliberately plunge the world into war which it is crystal clear no country could win and which could only result in catastrophic consequences to the whole world, including the aggressor," he wrote in the letter.Kennedy officially signed Proclamation 3504 on Oct. 23 authorizing the naval quarantine, and the Organization of American States endorsed the action.October 23, 1962: President Kennedy signs Proclamation 3504, authorizing the naval quarantine of Cuba.JFK LibraryKennedy then requested that Khrushchev halt any Soviet ships en route to Cuba out of fear the US would be forced to exchange fire and launch a war between the two nations.On Oct. 24, Khrushchev issued an angry rebuttal to Kennedy’s letterDept. of State translation of Chairman Khrushchev's letter to President Kennedy of October 24.JFK Library"You, Mr. President, are not declaring a quarantine, but rather are setting forth an ultimatum and threatening that if we do not give in to your demands you will use force," he wrote. "Consider what you are saying! And you want to persuade me to agree to this! What would it mean to agree to these demands? It would mean guiding oneself in one's relations with other countries not by reason, but by submitting to arbitrariness. You are no longer appealing to reason, but wish to intimidate us."On Oct. 25, Kennedy again urged Khrushchev to back down: 'It was not I who issued the first challenge in this case.'Adlai Stevenson, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, demands from Soviet delegate Valerian Zorin, not seen, an outright reply to whether the Soviet Union has stationed missiles in Cuba.Associated PressAll but one of the Soviet vessels heading towards Cuba turned back. One freighter containing only petroleum products was allowed through the quarantine.At the United Nations Security Council, US Ambassador Adlai Stevenson lambasted the Soviet Ambassador Valerian Zorin over the evidence of the missiles.The following is how the New York Journal-American newspaper characterized the confrontation:"His face red with anger and his well-controlled voice shaking with emotion, Mr. Stevenson tossed diplomatic niceties aside and vowed he would wait 'until hell freezes over' for Zorin to give a 'yes or no' to his question whether there were Soviet missiles in Cuba. The Russian, in turn, called Mr. Stevenson a liar."New photographs emerged on Oct. 26 showing further missile site construction, and Castro sent Khrushchev a private letter urging him to annihilate the US with nuclear weapons."However harsh and terrible the solution, there would be no other," Castro wrote to Khrushchev.TASS via Associated PressCastro, in his letter, explained to Khrushchev that should the US attempt to invade and occupy Cuba, the country would pose such a threat that the Soviet Union could not risk the possibility of a preemptive nuclear strike by the US."I tell you this because I believe that the imperialists' aggressiveness makes them extremely dangerous, and that if they manage to carry out an invasion of Cuba — a brutal act in violation of universal and moral law — then that would be the moment to eliminate this danger forever, in an act of the most legitimate self-defense. However harsh and terrible the solution, there would be no other," Castro wrote.Meanwhile, Khrushchev wrote to Kennedy declaring he was willing to remove the missiles from the island if the United States would pledge never to invade Cuba."I propose: We, for our part, will declare that our ships, bound for Cuba, will not carry any kind of armaments," he wrote. "You would declare that the United States will not invade Cuba with its forces and will not support any sort of forces which might intend to carry out an invasion of Cuba. Then the necessity for the presence of our military specialists in Cuba would disappear."Tensions between the US and the USSR reached their peak on Oct. 27 — also known as 'Black Saturday.'Wikimedia CommonsKhrushchev sent Kennedy another letter demanding stronger terms, such as the removal of the US's Jupiter missiles from Turkey.An American U-2 plane was also shot down over Cuba by a Soviet-supplied missile. Its pilot, Major Rudolf Anderson, was killed.Kennedy ultimately ignored the latest letter from Khrushchev, responding only to the warmer letter he had sent the previous day. "I have read your letter of October 26th with great care and welcomed the statement of your desire to seek a prompt solution to the problem," he wrote.That evening, Attorney General Robert Kennedy and Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin reached an agreement that the USSR would withdraw its missiles from Cuba under the supervision of the United Nations. In turn, the US would vow not to invade Cuba and remove its missiles from Turkey.The Soviets announced they would remove their missiles from Cuba on Oct. 28, ending the standoff.In this Oct. 28, 1962, President John F. Kennedy leaves St. Stephen's Roman Catholic Church after attending services in Washington D.C. shortly after the announcement from Moscow that Premier Khrushchev ordered Soviet rocket bases in Cuba dismantled and rockets returned to Russia.Associated Press/John RousA letter to Kennedy from Khrushchev detailed the agreement that the missiles would be removed from Cuba in exchange for a US promise not to invade.Kennedy issued a statement applauding Khrushchev's decision to remove the missiles."This is an important and constructive contribution to peace," he said. "It is my earnest hope that the governments of the world can, with a solution of the Cuban crisis, turn their urgent attention to the compelling necessity for ending the arms race and reducing world tensions." Update: This article, which was originally published in 2017 amid heightened tensions between the US and North Korea over its missile development and nuclear weapons programs has been updated amid new tensions between the US and Russia and republished on the 60th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

FedEx (NYSE:FDX) fired a warning shot the market needs to pay attention to when it prereleasedQ3 earnings but there is more to the story than what the headlines are screaming. FedEx is predicting a global recession in 2023 but the 20% decline in share prices is already offering a buying opportunity for investors. The stock […] FedEx (NYSE:FDX) fired a warning shot the market needs to pay attention to when it prereleasedQ3 earnings but there is more to the story than what the headlines are screaming. FedEx is predicting a global recession in 2023 but the 20% decline in share prices is already offering a buying opportunity for investors. The stock is now trading at only 10X its consensus earnings estimate and paying a dividend worth nearly 2.9% and the sell-side community is not baling out. The analysts are trimming their targets and the institutions may alter the pace of their activity, but both groups think this stock is still a buy. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more   Find A Qualified Financial Advisor Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn't have to be hard. SmartAsset's free tool matches you with up to 3 fiduciary financial advisors in your area in 5 minutes. Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests. If you're ready to be matched with local advisors that can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now. Granted, it’s only been a few days since the prerelease hit the market but there are only two recorded institutional transactions and both are small in relation to FedEx and their own portfolios. The takeaway is that institutional ownership is approaching 72% and on the rise with the net activity bullish for the last 3 consecutive quarters, including the current, calendar Q3 period. In regard to the analysts, there’ve been at least 16 commentaries released since the profit warning including 4 downgrades and 16 price target reductions but the net result is bullish. The analyst sentiment slipped slightly but is still pegged at a Moderate Buy with a price target more than 50% above the current price action.  “We're disappointed having given FedEx the benefit of the doubt after operational missteps in Ground, labor issues with contractors, TNT integration progress in Europe, and commercial efforts to drive yield and mix…it's becoming clear that UPS is executing better, in our view,” said Stifel analyst J. Bruce Chan when he downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy and lowered the firms target to $195 and well below the $241 consensus.  Did FedEx Selloff Too Much?  FedEx’s revenue and earnings are estimated to come in well below the consensus figures when it reports actual results later this week. The cause is attributed to rapid deceleration in the International business coupled with domestic weakness the company was unable to keep up with. This is bad news for the current quarter but provides potential catalysts for higher share prices as well, 1near-term, and 1 long-term. The near-term catalyst is that actual results may not be as bad as the company is projecting and/or there may be some better news in the report that aids the outlook for earnings in FQ4 and F2024. The long-term catalyst is that company's efforts to mitigate its cost base and prepare for the coming recession may set it up to perform better than the market’s expectations.   “While this performance is disappointing, we are aggressively accelerating cost reduction efforts and evaluating additional measures to enhance productivity, reduce variable costs, and implement structural cost-reduction initiatives. These efforts are aligned with the strategy we outlined in June, and I remain confident in achieving our fiscal year 2025 financial targets,” says Raj Subramaniam, CEO, and president of FedEx.  The Technical Outlook: FedEx Market Capitulates  The price action in FedEx stock has been under pressure since hitting its peak in June 2021 and that context makes the new 20% drop in share prices look like capitulation. The market imploded on the news, selling off on incredibly high volume, but someone was buying those shares and they drove the price action up off the low of the day confirming support that dates back to the 2014/2015 time period and a level that was confirmed during the Trump/Xi trade war. The action following the initial decline also suggests support is strong at this level and points to a bottom for the stock. Assuming the market follows through on this signal, the price action may move lower but the downside should be limited and lead to a trading range until more news is available. Until then, the 2.85% dividend yield looks safe enough.  Should you invest $1,000 in FedEx right now? Before you consider FedEx, you'll want to hear this. MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. M arketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and FedEx wasn't on the list. While FedEx currently has a "Moderate Buy" rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys. View The Five Stocks Here Article by Thomas Hughes, MarketBeat.....»»

Taiwan's military will continue to "exercise self-restraint" but it will also take "necessary repellent measures," a Taiwanese general said Wednesday. Shiyu Islet, part of Kinmen County, seen in front of the Chinese city of Xiamen in April 2018.Carl Court/Getty Images Chinese drones have been making more flights over and near Taiwanese territory in recent weeks. The drone flights are seen as part of a Chinese effort to pressure and intimidate Taiwanese forces. The flights continue, and Taiwan has shot down one drone, raising concern about possible escalation. China's drones have been a consistent part of its military activity around Taiwan in recent weeks, demonstrating new capabilities and applying increased pressure on the self-governing island, which Beijing claims as part of its territory.Drone flights, often by small civilian models, over Taiwan's outlying islands are among China's more visible pressure tactics, and experts and officials worry such actions risk turning high tensions into outright conflict.China launched a series of military exercises around Taiwan following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island on August 3. The exercises included live-fire drills over and around the island and repeated flights by Chinese aircraft across the median line, an unofficial but long-acknowledged boundary in the Taiwan Strait.The first post-trip overflight involving Chinese drones was reported hours after Pelosi left, when Taiwanese troops fired flares at two drones over Kinmen County — a group of Taiwanese islands a few miles off the coast of the Chinese city of Xiamen.Maj. Gen. Chang Jung-shun of the Taiwanese army's Kinmen Defense Command told local media that it was the first time he could recall Kinmen units taking such action.Commercial drones at a DJI drone store in Shanghai in December 2021.CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty ImagesOn the night of August 5, Taiwan's army said troops in Kinmen detected four drones and fired flares to warn them away. Taiwan's army said similar aircraft were spotted around Taiwan's Matsu archipelago, which is off China's coast to the north of Kinmen, around the same time.Taiwan's Defense Ministry said on August 7 that its forces were on alert and deploying to monitor Chinese aircraft, ships, and drones that were "simulating attacks on the island of Taiwan."China said its exercises around Taiwan were complete on August 10, but it has maintained a high level of naval and air activity around the island. (Taiwan began its own drills, which it said were defensive, on August 9.)China's "high-intensity" operations in early August, "including the use of drones to intrude [over] Taiwan's offshore islands," were "irrational and provocative," Maj. Min-Han Hsieh said Wednesday at a Taiwanese Defense Ministry briefing.—Tingting Liu 劉亭廷 (@tingtingliuTVBS) August 24, 2022"In response, Taiwan's military immediately lifted alertness and enhanced combat readiness, adhering to the principles of preparing for a war without seeking one," added Hsieh, an officer in the Office of the Deputy Chief of the General Staff for Operations and Planning.Drone flights over Taiwanese territory continued throughout the month, drawing international attention and stronger responses from Taiwan.On August 16, a civilian drone from mainland China flew over a Kinmen islet, photographing and filming Taiwanese troops, some of whom threw rocks at the drone. The footage was widely shared on Chinese social media.The final days of August saw more drone flights over Taiwan's offshore islands and off of Taiwan's east coast, where local observers estimated a drone circled for an hour on August 30.That drone flew through the Miyako Strait, between the Japanese islands of Okinawa and Miyakojima, and Japan scrambled fighter jets to intercept it.A Chinese TB-001 reconnaissance/attack drone over the western Pacific on August 30, 2022.Japanese Defense MinistryTaiwan's army said on August 29 that it would adopt a four-step response to such drone flights: "firing warning flares, reporting the incursion, expelling the drone, and ultimately shooting it down."Taiwanese troops acted on that procedure hours later, firing warning shots at three drones that flew over parts of Kinmen on August 30. Taiwan's military described them as "civilian use" drones and said they returned to Xiamen after the shots were fired.On Thursday, Taiwanese forces shot down a drone for the first time. Chang, the Kinmen Defense Command spokesman, said the drone flew from Xiamen and was over restricted waters around a Kinmen islet when Taiwanese troops initiated the procedure, "warning it off before shooting it down after it failed to leave the area."Kinmen and Matsu are just a few miles from mainland China, and Beijing has long used activity around those islands to pressure Taipei. A small Chinese civilian plane flew near a Matsu island in February in what Taiwan's military said may have been a test of its responses.'A whole new level'A Chinese military vehicle carrying a Pterodactyl I drone in a military parade in Beijing on September 3, 2015.Reuters/Jason LeeWhile Taiwanese officials identified many of the drones involved in recent overflights as civilian, China's military has invested heavily in an array of unmanned aircraft and watercraft."I watch Chinese military news every night, and more or less, every exercise now incorporates drones in some way," Lyle Goldstein said at an August 10 event hosted by Defense Priorities, where Goldstein directs the Asia Engagement program.Drones "would figure huge" in a future Chinese military action, Goldstein said, adding that China was "mad for drones" before Russia attacked Ukraine in February, "but the Ukraine war has taken it to a whole new level."The distance covered by some Chinese military drones was surprising, according to Taylor Fravel, director of the security studies Program at MIT, who said flights through Japan's Ryukyu Islands northeast of Taiwan appeared to be a new step.It may not be surprising that China would want to access the Pacific through those islands, Fravel, an expert on the Chinese military, said at the Defense Priorities event."On the other hand, if it is new, then that reflects kind of forward progress in terms of the Chinese air force or Chinese surveillance systems more generally and that they're going to have much greater reach in ways that can support targeting of ships," Fravel added.A Chinese BZK-005 reconnaissance drone east of Taiwan on August 4, 2020.Japanese Defense MinistrySmall, low-flying drones also offer specific benefits to Beijing's operations around Taiwan."A drone that is slower and has more endurance is a better option for this type of operation where you're just simply trying to be above, to make sure that you're seen, to be annoying and harassing and a little bit menacing," Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, said at an event on August 11.Drones, especially civilian models, are also cheaper and are seen as less likely to draw the same level of response as manned military aircraft, but China's continued drone flights and Taiwan's promise to respond have raised concerns about escalation.Taiwan has so far responded relatively strongly to Chinese drone flights, Charles Chong-Han Wu, a visiting fellow with the Stimson Center's East Asia Program, said at the August 11 event.There are likely to be more such flights around Kinmen and Matsu, Wu said, adding that China may also "step to more of this kind of gray-zone coercion" around Taiwan's main island.For its part, Taiwan is increasing investment in military drones, drawing lessons about their utility from the war in Ukraine.A Taiwanese soldier moves an Albatross tactical unmanned aircraft system during a live-fire drill in Pingtung, Taiwan on August 9, 2022Annabelle Chih/Getty ImagesTaiwan's Defense Ministry said in June that the first 14 of 50 tactical short-range drones would arrive before the end of the year. In August, a Taiwanese lawmaker said Taipei had agreed to buy four US-made MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones.Taipei is also strengthening its anti-drone defenses, including plans to install radars and defense systems to detect and jam and potentially shoot down drones around its islands.Taiwan's president has urged Taiwanese forces to be "more stable" in the face of a "more provocative enemy" but has also ordered the military to take "necessary and strong countermeasures," a call that military leaders have echoed.Maj. Gen. Jyun-Jie Wang of the Political Warfare Bureau at Taiwan's Defense Ministry said at the briefing Wednesday that Taiwanese forces would continue to "exercise self-restraint.""However, we will take necessary repellent measures as proper response to the situation to ensure our national security," Wang added. "Let me stress that China continues to make it a habit to conduct gray-zone operations to create divisions and differences within Taiwan's society."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Gunmakers are convincing elected officials they have to choose between gun-control laws and manufacturing jobs and benefiting richly. At first he thought it was an umbrella. But when the shotgun that was pointed at John Seymour went off, hitting him in the back and the wrist, he thought he was going to die in his own barbershop. He fell to the floor and played dead as the gunman shot three of his customers, killing two of them. Then the gunman, a former customer, killed two men in a nearby oil-change shop and holed up in an abandoned restaurant, where he later died in a shootout with police. Nearly 10 years later, Seymour thinks constantly about the shooting. “To this day, anything goes, Bang bang! and I jump. What do you expect? I had a guy die on top of me at my barbershop,” says Seymour, 76, who is known locally as John the barber. “​​We never thought we’d be a mass-murder part of the country.” [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] But like just about everyone else in Ilion, N.Y, a small town in New York’s Herkimer County about 80 miles northwest of Albany, Seymour has a soft spot for Remington Arms, the gun manufacturer that has been located here since Eliphalet Remington started making firearms in 1816. Remington’s imposing redbrick factory looms over Main Street. Walk around downtown, past the vape shops, the peeling multifamily homes, and the Remington Federal Credit Union, and you can hear the clinking of steel being cut as the factory churns out orders. Jason Koxvold for TIMEJohn Seymour in his barber shop where he survived a mass shooting nearly a decade ago. People here don’t talk about how Remington’s version of an AR-15—made in Ilion—was used in the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting less than 200 miles away, or that the company filed for bankruptcy twice between 2018 and 2020, because of financial engineering by the private equity firm that bought the company in 2007. They also don’t talk about how the company regularly threatens to leave New York and move somewhere cheaper, or periodically lays off hundreds of workers, leaving some in limbo for months or years. What they do talk about is Remington’s proud history of making arms for America when the country needed them the most, like during World Wars I and II—when workers had to carpool to the factory because the parking lot couldn’t fit everyone’s cars—and the affinity they have for a company that employed most of their fathers, and their father’s fathers. “They help the little village of Ilion and its 7,500 people,” says Seymour, who when he isn’t plying his trade as a barber moonlights as a wedding and event singer. His father worked at Remington for 43 years, beginning in 1932, and Seymour’s brother and brother-in-law also worked there. “They pay taxes on that building, and we give them a little break on everything.” Remington, on the other hand, has not been very kind to the village of Ilion in recent years. After decades of threatening to relocate to the South, where gun laws are friendlier and labor is cheaper, the company went so far as to move two lines of manufacturing to Alabama in 2014, after that state offered nearly $70 million and factory space rent-free. That endeavor ultimately failed, leaving the Alabama factory shuttered, and some of the equipment moved back to Ilion. When the Remington Outdoor Company filed for bankruptcy in 2020, it owed hundreds of thousands of dollars to local suppliers and utility providers, including the local shoe store, the hardware store, and Ilion’s treasurer, police department, water commission, and the roughly 609 workers it had abruptly laid off without the health care benefits or severance pay promised in their contract. Despite these slights, many Ilion residents remain unfailingly loyal to the company. “I would say that we bleed green—Remington green,” says Frank “Rusty” Brown, who has worked at the factory since 1995 and was one of the workers who protested outside the factory in 40-degree weather in October 2020, after Remington filed for bankruptcy and fired all its Ilion manufacturing workers. “This is our living; it’s how our parents made a living. I’m dedicated to the place.” Remington’s Ilion and Tennessee properties, as well as its long-gun, shotgun, and pistols businesses, were bought out of bankruptcy in 2020 by a company called the Roundhill Group LLC, which now operates Remington through a holding company called RemArms. Roundhill appears to have been created solely to purchase Remington’s assets from its bankruptcy proceedings; Richmond Italia, a paintball entrepreneur who is one of Roundhill’s two partners, said in court filings that he was approached by Ken D’Arcy, a professional race-car driver and manufacturing executive who was appointed CEO of Remington in 2019. D’Arcy suggested that Italia buy Remington’s firearms assets. (The two men knew each other because they had both served as CEOs and then sat on the board of GI Sportz, a paintball company that filed for bankruptcy in October 2020, shortly after Roundhill purchased Remington.) In November 2021, D’Arcy, who is still CEO of Remington, announced that RemArms was moving to LaGrange, Ga. Ilion officials scurried to give RemArms incentives to stay, offering a 50% discount on property taxes, but Remington seemed uninterested in negotiating. Some residents began to imagine a town without Remington; others, like Brown, remained skeptical that the factory would shut down. After all, RemArms had started calling workers like him who’d been laid off in 2020 back to the factory in April 2021 to restart manufacturing, and the company is now negotiating with the United Mine Workers of America, the union representing workers when Remington filed for bankruptcy, to ink a new contract for Ilion. The Roundhill Group did not respond to calls and emails seeking comment for this story. “Remington has been going to move elsewhere since my parents worked there,” says Brown, whose wife, two daughters, and son-in-law still work at the plant. “You hear it so many times over the years, you become numb to it.” Jason Koxvold for TIMEFrank “Rusty” Brown has worked at the Remington Arms factory since 1995. Remington’s hot-and-cold relationship with Ilion is not a rare case among American gunmakers. It may seem reasonable to assume, in light of recent state laws and lawsuits filed against them, that gun companies are under siege, their bottom lines threatened by regulations and shifting public attitudes toward firearms. But today more than ever, gun manufacturers like Remington (now RemArms), Smith & Wesson, and Colt are pulling the strings, convincing elected officials they have to choose between gun-control laws and manufacturing jobs. States in the South and West are offering millions in incentives to gun companies and loosening laws around gun ownership to show their fealty to gun culture, even as gunmakers have raked in $3 billion in profits since the pandemic began. Profits for gunmakers have been strong for the last decade, with both Smith & Wesson and Sturm Ruger & Co., the country’s two biggest gunmakers, surpassing $100 million in profit every year. That’s putting pressure on states like New York to loosen recently passed gun-control laws, to convince manufacturers to stay—even though often those manufacturers are just adding new locations in other states and not actually leaving their original homes. The gunmakers’ leverage makes sense in a country where manufacturing is still seen as the backbone of the country, even though jobs in the sector make up less than 10% of U.S. employment, down from one-quarter of employment half a century ago. Politicians and voters on the right and left often romanticize factory jobs that make products marketed as all-American, such as trucks, tractors, and guns, particularly if they’re set to remain on American soil. (In the case of guns, many buyers don’t want something manufactured in a foreign country where safety standards are perceived to be lower). As America has become more polarized, gun manufacturers have been able to orchestrate complicated political theater, threatening to move factories—and jobs—when gun-control legislation is passed in certain states. They are garnering millions of dollars in incentives from states and local economic development boards rolling out the red carpet to demonstrate their gun-friendly credentials. Despite evidence that giving incentives to factories isn’t a cost-effective way to create jobs, and often they actually lose money—as in the case of electronics maker Foxconn’s deal in Wisconsin—states know that attracting manufacturers is popular with voters. Remington is a master at this game. In 1995, the company announced that it was moving its headquarters to North Carolina, receiving $150,000 from the state to do so. In the end, no manufacturing jobs were moved to the state. Then, after private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management purchased Remington in 2007 and rumors swirled that manufacturing would be moved overseas to save money, the State of New York gave Remington $3 million to expand its Ilion plant, and then $2.5 million more in 2010 to add 100 jobs. Just three years later, in 2013, New York passed sweeping gun-control legislation the SAFE Act, which banned some assault-style weapons, began requiring background checks for nearly all gun sales, and prohibited people who’d committed certain offenses from possessing guns. Ilion politicians used the law’s passage to criticize state Democrats for driving Remington away, and indeed, Remington soon announced that it was being courted by five other states. Six elected officials from the Ilion area pledged assistance should Remington build a new manufacturing plant in the area, warning in a public letter that “the clock is ticking on an inevitable exit by Remington from the state.” Read more: How Gunmakers May Benefit From Mass Shootings In 2014, Remington announced it was moving two production lines to Huntsville, Ala., a decision the company’s CEO George Kollitides blamed on New York gun laws, citing “Alabama’s rich tradition of defending freedom,” as a “major deciding factor” in the move. At the time, a company spokesperson said the move was “a strategic business decision” to consolidate plants. But while the announcement provided a platform for conservatives to lambast New York’s gun laws, the Ilion plant continued to operate with around 1,300 employees. The jobs that moved to Alabama were from other Remington plants in conservative states like Montana, Utah, and North Carolina. Alabama’s play for Remington did not look so smart by 2020, when Remington filed for bankruptcy and owed $12.5 million to Huntsville, because it had not met the hiring numbers it had agreed to in its $70 million incentive deal with the city. The company appeared to be drawing from the same playbook when it announced it was moving its headquarters to LaGrange in 2021. “The decision to locate in Georgia is very simple: the state of Georgia is not only a business-friendly state; it’s a firearms-friendly state,” RemArms CEO Ken D’Arcy said at the time. RemArms secured $6 million in incentives from Georgia, and pledged to build a $100 million research and development center in LaGrange. According to T. Scott Malone, president of the Development Authority of LaGrange, RemArms has set up shop in an 80,000-sq.-ft. temporary facility, and recently started producing its first guns. RemArms specifically attributed its decision to move to a New York law passed in 2021 that would bypass blanket immunity provided to gunmakers under federal law, and make it easier to bring civil lawsuits against gun companies. “Unfortunately, if a law like that is passed in New York State, we would have to reconsider our options for the future and our plans to expand our New York operations,” Italia, the managing partner for Roundhill Group said in an email to Utica’s Times Telegram in July 2021. But the law applies to all gunmakers that sell guns in New York, which would include RemArms wherever it has its plants. But despite all the headlines, the company has told New York stakeholders that it now has no plans to close the Ilion facility. “Nobody’s moving to Georgia—in fact, they’re adding employees here,” says John Piseck, CEO of the Herkimer County Industrial Development Agency, a public-benefit corporation that can offer tax breaks to local businesses. RemArms has called back nearly all of the 609 workers Remington laid off when it filed for bankruptcy in 2020, according to Jamie Rudwall, president of the United Mine Workers of America. He notes that only 300 have actually returned, the rest having either found new jobs or retrained for new careers. Business is good. Because gun sales are soaring in the U.S., and manufacturers need to expand operations to keep up with demand, gunmakers can combine business decisions with lobbying, announcing that they’re opening a new factory in Georgia or North Carolina to meet demand while complaining about gun-control laws elsewhere. Retailers performed 21 million background checks associated with the sale of a firearm in 2020, a 62% increase from 2019, and twice as many as 2010, according to data from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) that is used as a rough proxy for gun sales. The figures don’t include background checks for other purposes, like concealed carry permits. For workers like Brown, the constant push and pull is more of a nuisance than a threat to their livelihoods. Brown—whose wife, two daughters, and soon-to-be son-in-law work at the Ilion plant—says the company should know by now that it won’t find workers anywhere as skilled, dedicated, or patient with the company as those in Ilion. “It’s always, ‘We’re going to move to where there’s cheaper labor. We’re going to move to where there’s this law or that law.’ After so many years, you become immune to it,” Brown says. “And then to see them fail miserably in Alabama, it’s like, ‘I told you so.’ ” To this day, both Georgia and New York officials are still pulling for RemArms to bring some more good news to their communities, even though RemArms’ future looks a little shaky. Tax collectors in Alabama are already trying to foreclose on some of Roundhill’s recently purchased assets because they weren’t removed from the state in a timely fashion, according to bankruptcy documents. The firearms economy When Brown was growing up, there were lots of manufacturing jobs in upstate New York, but Remington was the place he wanted to be. “It was so hard to get in there, because it was the greatest job ever,” he says. Both his parents had worked there, so he knew: health care didn’t cost anything; he got a pension and a good wage; and he didn’t have to bother with college. By the time he was laid off in 2020, he was making $26.87 an hour—more if he worked nights or overtime. Brown is one of thousands of people in the U.S. Northeast who make a living manufacturing firearms. The area around western Massachusetts and Connecticut, nicknamed Gun Valley, has been a gunmaking hub since George Washington set up an armory in Springfield, Mass., in the late 18th century to keep weapons out of reach of the British Navy. In 1986, 47% of guns manufactured in the U.S. were made in Connecticut, 24% in Massachusetts, and 12% in New York, according to Jürgen Brauer, the chief economist with nonpartisan research group Small Arms Analytics, who analyzed historical data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ATF). But in recent years, amid rising political polarization, states in the South and West, desperate to attract jobs in the aftermath of the Great Recession, have attempted to lure manufacturers from Gun Valley. Their pitch: gun companies should move to places where people like guns. The sunset of the federal assault-weapons ban in 2004, and subsequent attempts by states to pass laws either loosening or tightening rules on gun ownership, signaled where gunmakers would be welcome. Some states even started to designate official state guns alongside their state flowers and fish. “We’re all here to show our support for the Second Amendment to our neighbors and communities,” Nebraska Governor Pete Ricketts said earlier this year, onstage with five other governors at the trade show of the National Sports Shooting Foundation (NSSF), which now spends more on lobbying than the National Rifle Association. (Around 10,000 guns were made in Nebraska in 2020, less than 1% of all guns made in the U.S.) Jason Koxvold for TIMEJamie Rudwall, president of the United Mine Workers of America. “There’s a trend of companies that have picked up and moved, and it’s really been accelerating as of late,“ says Mark Oliva, managing director of public affairs at the NSSF. The NSSF keeps a running list of gunmakers that it says have migrated from the Northeast to the South, including Kimber, Sturm Ruger & Co., and Beretta. But the NSSF’s list is misleading. Though some gunmakers have picked up and moved their factories south from states like Connecticut, the far more common occurrence is that they move only their headquarters to Southern states, but keep manufacturing in the state in which that factory already exists. Such a move can secure juicy incentives such as tax breaks and free facilities, and generate headlines about liberal states losing manufacturing, while sparing gunmakers the hassle of moving millions of dollars of equipment and hiring and training new workers. Indeed, most of the companies on the NSSF’s list of “gun industry migration” still have manufacturing in the northeast. The devil is in the details. According to Brauer’s analysis of ATF data, by 2020 just 1.42% of guns were made in Connecticut, and less than 1% in New York, while states like Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina accounted for 9%, 6%, and 5%, of firearm manufacturing, respectively. The two top states for gunmaking in 2020, according to the data, were Missouri and New Hampshire. However, those figures only show where guns are distributed, rather than manufactured, deceptively counting Smith & Wesson—the biggest producer of guns in 2020—as a Missouri company, even though its guns in 2020 were made in Massachusetts, not Missouri. The company generated headlines in 2017 when it announced it was moving to Missouri, receiving a 50% tax break over 10 years. But at the time, it only moved about 20 jobs from its Massachusetts headquarters. The data shows that Massachusetts made 21% of all firearms in 2015 and just 0.49% in 2020—but that’s because Smith & Wesson established a distribution center in Missouri, not because it moved its manufacturing, Small Arms Analytics’ Brauer says. And in October 2021, Smith & Wesson said it would be relocating its headquarters to Tennessee from Springfield, Mass., its home for 165 years, after a bill was introduced in the Massachusetts legislature that would have banned the manufacture of assault weapons for civilian use. (The bill has gone nowhere.) At the time, Smith & Wesson said it decided to move because “We are under attack.” What it did not make clear was that its manufacturing operations—accounting for about 1,000 jobs—would stay in Springfield, and that what it was moving to Tennessee was assembly and distribution of firearms. One-quarter of the jobs being moved to Tennessee are currently located in Missouri and Connecticut, not Massachusetts. The Missouri warehouse the company had received an incentive for just a few years before would be closed, Smith & Wesson said. The company received $9 million from the state of Tennessee and made a deal with the local economic development agency that gives it a 60% tax break for seven years. Its CEO, Mark Smith, thanked Tennessee’s governor and legislature for their “unwavering support of the 2nd Amendment and for creating a welcoming, business friendly environment.” Smith & Wesson did not respond to requests for comment for this story. Gunmakers are increasingly turning to this playbook. Kahr Arms, which said it was moving out of New York in 2013 because of “stricter gun control,” moved its headquarters to Pennsylvania, which also has relatively strict gun-control laws, and kept its manufacturing in Massachusetts. Meanwhile, Colt, which threatened to move after Connecticut considered gun control laws in 2008 and passed them in 2013, decided to remain and then received a $10 million loan from the state of Connecticut in 2017. Colt made 158,501 guns in Connecticut 2020 and was recently bought by Czech company Česká zbrojovka Group (CZG), which itself received incentives in 2019, including 73 acres of free land by the state of Arkansas to build a gunmaking plant there. That Little Rock, Ark. plant has been put on hold, and the company says it has no plans to move Colt out of state. “Once situated in one state, it is exceedingly rare for a firearms manufacturer to move its entire operation to another state,” says Brauer. His research has found that gunmakers that say they’re leaving a Northeast state because of its gun-control policies usually keep a substantial presence there, and that they leave not because of the political climate but because they can find nonunionized, lower-paid workers in the South—and get millions of dollars in incentives. In 2010, for example, Olin Corp., owner of a Winchester ammunition factory, moved 1,000 jobs from Illinois to Mississippi after union workers in Illinois rejected a contract that would have reduced their pay. And a Remington executive told the New York Times in 2019 that in Ilion, the union “had them by the balls,” one reason the company moved some operations to Alabama from New York. Oliva, of the National Sports Shooting Foundation, says that moving operations is not a decision gunmakers take lightly, but that Smith & Wesson and other companies have to consider “the survival of a business” when states like Massachusetts talk of banning the manufacturing of some assault weapons to anyone but police and the military. The companies keep some manufacturing in the places where they were founded, out of loyalty to workers, he says, but “it is clear that many of these manufacturers are expanding to other states which are more friendly business environments and more friendly to gun rights.” For RemArms worker Brown, one of the ironies of the company’s indicating it will move to a state friendlier to gun owners is that Ilion is a place where people love guns. Ilion residents will offer to show strangers their gun collections, or wax lyrical about their favorite hunting rifle. Ask them about gun-control legislation, and they’ll blame Democrats, or politicians in Albany, for punishing the law-abiding citizens who want to own guns to hunt or to protect themselves. (Herkimer County voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden in 2020 by a 2-to-1 margin.) Even “barber John” Seymour—still widely recognized locally as a mass-shooting survivor—is skeptical about the effectiveness of gun-control laws. “It’s tough for me to see the stuff that goes on in places like Uvalde,” he says. “But that guy would have gotten a gun no matter what—he was on a mission.” He points to the difficulties of assessing someone’s mental health when deciding whether they should be allowed to purchase a gun. In Seymour’s own case, the man who shot him, Kurt Myers, was mostly known locally as a loner who kept to himself, but authorities never found a motive for why he’d shot six people. It’s laws like New York’s SAFE Act that have most riled people in Ilion. “The climate changes when you say, ‘Big bad Remington is making this big mean gun in the middle of our state,’ ” says Rudwall, the union rep. “Look at the comments these politicians made: they demonize the tool, not the dude that did it.” When Remington threatens to leave, locals often blame state politicians for driving gunmakers out of the state. New York Republican Congresswoman Claudia Tenney has seized on that sentiment, campaigning to overturn the SAFE Act, lambasting former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo for what she has called “failed economic and anti–Second Amendment policies in New York,” and using her positions on guns to shore up her connection with Donald Trump. At a fundraiser Trump held for Tenney in 2018, he warned attendees: “They want to end your Second Amendment and they’re putting a big move on it … Cuomo wants to end your Second Amendment more than anybody.” In 2020, when Remington filed for bankruptcy, Tenney said she’d contacted President Trump and would get the factory reopened, and that it would “eventually employ a workforce significantly larger than the plant’s previous head count.” (It’s unclear whether Trump intervened.) A week later, Tenney was re-elected in one of the most expensive House races in the country, by 109 votes. Jason Koxvold for TIMERemington Arms has told New York stakeholders that it now has no plans to close the Ilion facility. Gunmakers’ threats to leave states in the Northeast have helped to stoke fear among some employees. As soon as renderings of the LaGrange RemArms headquarters started showing up online, Brown says his daughters and other workers on the factory floor began to express concern that they would lose their jobs. The pictures emerged just as the union was in the middle of negotiations with RemArms over wages and benefits, and people around the plant started hinting that the union should take whatever deal it could, says union representative Rudwall. Negotiations are still ongoing. “My daughter says, ‘Daddy, look at this brand-new facility, they’re not going to stay here,’ ” Brown says. “So when Jamie [Rudwall] comes back with a contract, whether they like it or not, they say, ‘Yes,’ because we want to keep working.” There are other jobs in Ilion; in this economy, there are other jobs just about anywhere. They’re just not manufacturing jobs. The county’s largest employer is now Tractor Supply, which is a distribution center. Verizon has a presence in the area, and Amazon is opening a warehouse nearby too. But some of the laid-off Remington workers who missed their chance to go back to the factory say they’d go back if given the opportunity. Allen Harrington worked at the Remington factory in Ilion for eight years. In October 2020, a few months after Remington filed for bankruptcy, the company laid off nearly all of its Ilion workers. Harrington was on the factory floor at the time, until a supervisor came in and said they had to shut everything down, and that everyone was terminated, and that health care, severance, and other benefits would be gone at the end of the month. Harrington eventually found a job making $13 an hour in a warehouse, down from the $25 he had made at Remington. He kicks himself for not going back to school after being laid off, but he felt too old—and he felt sure that the factory would re-open and he could work in manufacturing again. It’s hard to let go. “I loved that job,” Harrington says. “I know it’s uncertain there, but I’d go back in a heartbeat.”.....»»

Speaking to Gaetz, Steve Bannon suggested that Jim Jordan of Ohio should take over McCarthy's post as GOP leader. Rep. Matt Gaetz said Kevin McCarthy "should not be the leader of the Republican Congress" if he stands for the "bureaucratic permanent state."Lev Radin/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images; Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images/Kevin Dietsch/Getty ImagesTrump allies Matt Gaetz and Steve Bannon slammed Kevin McCarthy during an appearance at CPAC.Gaetz said he did not think McCarthy should lead the GOP if he stood for "the establishment."Bannon said Jim Jordan should be fill the role, to raucous cheers from the crowd.Rep. Matt Gaetz hit out at House Minority Leader and fellow Trump loyalist Kevin McCarthy during a conversation with Steve Bannon at CPAC on Saturday, saying the latter should not lead the GOP.On an episode of Bannon's War Room podcast aired live from CPAC, Bannon asked Gaetz if things would be "same old, same old" in a GOP-led Congress.In response, Gaetz said a GOP-led Congress would investigate the origins of COVID-19 and allegations of voter fraud. He went on to hit out at McCarthy's leadership of the party."If anyone posits to be the leader of our party and our movement, they cannot stand for the swamp, and the establishment, and the bureaucratic permanent state," Gaetz said. "They have to stand with us in exposing these issues. And if Kevin McCarthy will not allow us to be able to find out the answers, he should not be the leader of the Republican conference."Bannon nodded before asking the crowd: "What do you think about that?""Do we want Jim Jordan?" Bannon asked the crowd, positing that Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan could be McCarthy's replacement.Jordan was one of McCarthy's opponents for speaker in 2018. It's unclear if he still has such ambitions; he said in 2020 that he would support McCarthy for speaker in 2022 if the GOP gets its majority back in the House.Representatives for Jordan and McCarthy did not immediately respond to Insider's requests for comment.A growing chasmThese comments reflect a schism that has been growing for months in the GOP.GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert fired a warning shot of her own at McCarthy on Saturday. In a speech at CPAC, Boebert said members of the GOP leadership who did not work with her on issues like "securing the Southern border" would not have her support for re-election or the role of speaker."We will not tolerate another GOP speaker that works with Democrats more than Republicans," she said.In November, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said she did not think McCarthy had the votes to be the speaker."I can't respect leadership that doesn't hold people accountable, yet allows people like me, Paul Gosar, to be constantly trampled on and abused, and then will throw us under the bus at the first given chance. I'm really sick of it," Greene said during an episode of Gaetz's "Firebrand" podcast.In February 2021, members of Congress voted to strip Greene of her committee assignments. Arizona Rep. Paul Gosar, too, lost his seats on both the House Oversight and Natural Resource committees in November after he tweeted a violent anime video that depicted him killing Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.The GOP divide grew even wider in April, when audio was leaked of McCarthy telling House GOP members on January 10, 2021, that he was going to urge Trump to resign following the Capitol riot. Gaetz at the time slammed the California lawmaker for his comments, and several days later hinted that he would support Jordan for GOP leader over McCarthy. As recently as June, Gaetz was still pushing the idea of Jordan as the leader of a GOP-led Congress.Bannon is also not the first conservative media figure to call out McCarthy. In April, Fox News host Tucker Carlson called him a "puppet of the Democratic Party" who "in private, sounds like an MSNBC contributor."McCarthy has continually faced criticism about his leadership from Trump, too. In November, Trump claimed Republicans could have stayed in power if McCarthy and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had "fought harder."For his part, McCarthy appears to have managed to smooth things over with Trump, saying in June that things are "all good" between them.In June, Trump endorsed McCarthy for re-election, calling him "strong and fearless."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Many tech companies have announced downsizing. We're chronicling the human impact of layoffs on workers across the industry from Tesla to Netflix. Over 30,000 tech workers have lost their job as of July.Compassionate Eye Foundation/Martin Barraud/OJO Images Ltd / Getty Images Over 30,000 tech workers have lost their job as of July.  Insider spoke to employees from Tesla to Coinbase to hear their stories. These are their stories of the personal and economic toll of layoffs in the industry.  According to the latest data from the US department of labor, unemployment claims have jumped to an unexpected 8-month-high. As the economy slows down many big tech companies have warned their employees of corporate downsizing and layoffs. Ahead of Facebook's poor earnings report, several executives sent memos to their teams warning of job cuts ahead. Earlier in the year, as cryptocurrencies crashed in one of the coldest dips the asset-class has experienced in years, the hot-shot crypto-exchange, Coinbase, laid off nearly 20% of its employees. The company went as far as rescinding job offers from new recruits. Last month, Tesla let go of more than 200 employees. According to Crunchbase, more than 30,000 tech employees have been laid off as of July. At Insider, we are chronicling how the economic downturn is impacting tech's most vulnerable workers. Here's a running list of first-person and and as-told-to stories that show the human toll of industry layoffs. A Tesla IT manager: 'I noticed red flags the day I got fired'A Tesla IT worker tells Insider about the red flags they noticed before being laid off. The employee describes the scene at Tesla's Fremont, California factory, where on the day of the layoffs last month, people wept as they exited the lobby. The company offered the worker an Uber voucher to get home. But they told Insider editor Jenna Gyimesi, "I feel like I'm starting over." Despite this experience they still feel Tesla is doing good things for the world Read more: I got laid off at Tesla. Here are the red flags I wish I'd noticed the day it happened.A Coinbase program manager: 'I've never experienced such lack of empathy'For Miguel Cuevas, working at Coinbase was a dream come true. But he was one of the 1,100 employees the company laid off as cryptocurrencies crashed earlier this year. In the weeks prior, many employees asked if layoffs were imminent but, according to Cuevas, management told everyone to "keep chugging along as though things were normal."He tells Insider reporter, Jessica Xing, that he felt the company failed to deliver on its promises. Read more: I was laid off from Coinbase. Working in crypto was a dream but now I am frustrated and angry at the company's failed promises.A Netflix copywriter: "I truly think it's evil what was done to me and my colleagues today"A copywriter at Netflix's shuttered fan site Tudum describes the layoffs at the now-shuttered site. First, they found out their manager's Slack had been deactivated. Then they noticed a call they had ignored. Others had described getting the bad news over the phone. When they called back, they received the news: two weeks pay, but their job was no more. Read more: I was part of the layoffs at Netflix. Here's how it went down.A Tesla recruiter: 'I struggled to maintain my composure and not cry'For Quishon Walker, working at Tesla was a dream job. As a recruiter, he was among the first to lose his job last month as the company announced they would be downsizing. The company also announced they would freeze hiring for the time being. When he saw an ominous calendar invite, he knew his time was up after only two weeks of working at the company. Read more: I just got laid off from my dream job at Tesla without warning. I feel like my life got uprooted so a billionaire could save some money.A Coinbase engineer: "I'm worried and panicking"Ashutosh Ukey was an entry-level engineer who was offered a dream job at Coinbase after finishing his degree at the University of Illinois. As a visa-holder, Ukey's status to remain in the US is contingent on finding an employer to sponsor their visa. When Coinbase told him they were rescinding his job offer, he was worried about whether he would be able to stay in the country. Ukey says he's not sure if he'll want to work in crypto again considering the precarity of his visa situation and the uncertainty of the industry. Read more: I had my Coinbase job offer rescinded. I'm panicking because I'll have to leave the country in 5 months if I don't find a new job.If you're a tech worker who wants to tell us your story, write to our editor Tekendra Parmar, at tparmar@insider.comRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Russia's S-400 air-defense system is often touted as capable of defending against even America's most advanced jets. A Russian S-400 air-defense system on display in Moscow, August 23, 2020.Sefa Karacan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images Russia's S-400 Triumf is widely touted as one of most capable air-defense systems in the world. The S-400 system is highly capable, but it's not nearly as capable as it is often made out to be. Russia's S-400 Triumf, often referred to as the SA-21 Growler within NATO circles, is widely touted as one of — if not the — most capable air-defense systems in the world.With the ability to leverage a variety of missiles to engage different air threats, an engagement range of nearly 250 miles, and widely praised counter-stealth capabilities, the S-400 has gained a reputation as one of the few systems capable of countering America's air-dominance approach to warfare.But is the S-400's fearsome reputation really deserved, or is it just another Russian weapon system that benefits from the Kremlin's well-established nack for media manipulation in the interest of furthering foreign weapons sales?Russia has been intentionally opaque about the S-400's history in testing and in the few situations where the S-400 has found itself in real combat conditions, its performance has prompted more questions than answers. But through extensive research into the system's development and use, bolstered by expert assessments from a variety of nations, there are two seemingly counter-intuitive conclusions about the S-400 that we can draw.First: The system is not nearly as capable as it is often perceived to be. Second: It is, nonetheless, among the most capable air-defense systems in use today.No air defense system in the world is foolproofS-400 surface-to-air missiles during the Victory Day parade in Moscow's Red Square, May 9, 2015.ReutersWhile these may seem like opposing views, the complexity of the air-defense enterprise is often understated in media and popular discussion. The emergence of hypersonic missiles has further exacerbated the unrealistic expectations of modern air defenses, as these fast-moving and maneuverable missiles are often touted as important specifically because they can defeat modern air- and missile-defense platforms.The emphasis on hypersonics' value as a means of overcoming these systems suggests that subsonic and even supersonic missiles can't. But intercepting any missile is a very difficult proposition that no air-defense system in the world can manage with 100% efficacy on a consistent basis.That point was made very clear in a piece by David Mosher, published in the December 2000 issue of Arms Control Today. The original article can't be found online anymore, but it has since been republished by the Rand Corporation.Mosher, who previously ran the National Security Division at the Congressional Budget Office, before serving as the director of the American Physical Society's Study Group on Boost-Phase Intercept Systems for National Missile Defense, says:"Nearly everyone underestimates the breadth of the effort that will be required to field effective missile defenses." — "Understanding the Extraordinary Cost of Missile Defense," by David Mosher for the "Arms Control Today."The S-400's truly advanced capabilitiesAn S-400 missile is launched during a military exercise in southern Russia, September 22, 2020DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP via Getty ImagesDevelopment of Russia's S-400 system likely began in the 1980s. However, the effort wasn't revealed to the public until 1993, two years after the collapse of the Soviet government.Like many former Soviet programs that saw continued life under the newly formed Russian Federation, budgetary constraints dictated a great deal of the S-400's makeup, with an estimated 70% to 80% of its hardware borrowed directly from its S-300 predecessor that had begun development in the late 1960s.The primary differences between the older S-300 system and the more modern S-400 came in the form of updated and refined radar systems, improved software, and the incorporation of new missile types to offer flexibility in target intercepts and increased range.Another very important aspect of the S-400 system is its electronic-warfare countermeasures, including rapid frequency-hopping to limit the effectiveness of radar jamming and agile beam-steering for improved target acquisition and tracking.The S-400's counter-stealth claims come largely thanks to the inclusion of Russia's Nebo-M radar system that combines three different arrays that broadcast on different frequency bands to detect, track, and target low-observable aircraft like America's fifth-generation fighters. This system does so by leveraging a largely misunderstood attribute of stealth fighter design: their inherent detectability against lower-frequency radar bands.Nebo-M radar and its efficacy against stealth fighters like the F-35An S-400 radar array.Russian Ministry of DefenseModern stealth fighters are designed to delay or prevent detection from higher-frequency radar arrays broadcasting in parts of the S, C, X, and Ku bands, because these systems are capable of providing a "weapons-grade lock," in other words, radar arrays that can guide a missile to a target.Lower-frequency radar arrays leveraging the L or S bands are not capable of guiding weapons with this sort of accuracy — but are capable of spotting stealth fighters.As a result, many nations have developed early-warning radar systems that leverage low-frequency bands to notify them of the approach of stealth fighters, but most nations lack the ability to target these aircraft even when they know they're flying directly overhead. You can read more about this in our full-length feature on the topic here.Russia's Nebo-M system uses two low-frequency radar arrays, the Nebo SVU in the VHF-band and the Protivnik G in the L-band, to detect the presence of stealth fighters as they approach.These systems do not provide the image fidelity required for targeting a stealth fighter, but by networking them with Russia's Gamma S1 array broadcasting in the S and X-bands, the Nebo-M system offers an effective means of tracking and eventually even targeting stealth fighters.A Russian Su-57 fighter jet.Associated PressIt's important to note that, while modern stealth fighters like the F-35, F-22, J-20, and Su-57 are all designed to minimize detection against these high-frequency bands, no modern fighter can entirely defeat detection against them.America's F-35 is said to boast a radar cross-section (RCS) of approximately 0.0015 square meters, or around the size of a golf ball, while the stealthier F-22's RCS of about 0.0001-0.0002 square meters is more like a marble. These both represent a significant improvement over the world's first operational stealth aircraft, the F-117 Nighthawk, with a claimed radar cross-section of approximately .003 square meters.In practical application, stealth isn't about preventing detection altogether, but rather delaying it for long enough for the fighter aircraft to either strike first or escape a potential threat. The smaller your radar return, the closer your aircraft needs to be to the array in order to be effectively targetted.According to a peer-reviewed assessment by Hellenic Air Force colonel and electronics engineer Konstantinos Zikidis, published by the Journal of Computations and Modelling in 2014, Russia claims the low-frequency arrays leveraged by the Nebo-M can detect the F-117 Nighthawk at a range of 350 kilometers (217 miles) in an environment free from electronic warfare (EW), and potentially as far as 72 kilometers (45 miles) under heavy jamming.This detection range is the basis for many S-400 counter-stealth claims, but it fails to acknowledge the difference between detecting a stealth fighter and targeting one.How would a head-to-head duel between the S-400 and F-35 play out?An F-35 during takeoff, April 24, 2016.U.S. Air Force photo/Senior Airman R. Alex DurbinThe figures above represent the detection range for the S-400 system's low-frequency radars versus the F-117, which offers an RCS that's approximately 30 times larger than the F-22 and at least twice the size of the F-35. As a result, both detection and targeting ranges for these more modern fighters will be reduced dramatically.Based on assessments, the S-400 can target aircraft like the F-35, but likely not until the jet flies within 20 miles of the system. As a result, in a one-on-one fight between America's F-35A and Russia's S-400, the stealth fighter would almost certainly take home the win in a future conflict thanks to the forthcoming adoption of weapons like Northrop Grumman's Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile Extended Range (ARRGM-ER).The AARGM-ER is an advanced anti-radiation missile, or a weapon designed to detect and close with broadcasting radar arrays. This weapon is designed to be carried internally within the F-35's weapons bay and boasts a range of at least 60 miles (though some sources claim a range as high as 80 miles).If fired from well outside the 20-mile targeting envelope of the S-400, the AARGM-ER has a high likelihood of finding its target without the F-35 being shot down, though during the short time the F-35's weapons bay doors are open and compromising its stealth profile, the S-400 will likely be able to achieve a weapons-grade lock (not unlike how an F-117 was downed over Yugoslavia in 1999).An F-117 lands in California after training with an Air National Guard unit, September 15, 2021.US Air Force/Capt. Jason SanchezHowever, Russian troops would likely not have the opportunity to exercise that lock, as the anti-radiation missile coming toward them will likely prompt them to power their system down and relocate. If they simply power down without relocating, the missile's onboard targeting system can still find its target using GPS.This fictional engagement doesn't reflect the reality of large-scale combat between the United States and Russia, however, as the S-400 is most effective when leveraged as a part of a broader integrated air-defense system (IADS), rather than alone.It would be more difficult to engage these systems with F-35s when they're networked with airborne warning and control system aircraft (AWACS) to provide increased detection ranges beyond the horizon, alongside a network of other air defense systems working in tandem.However, third-party states like Turkey that purchase the S-400 often do so without those broader IADS capabilities, minimizing the efficacy of the system itself.The easy way to defeat Russia's S-400? A whole bunch of cruise missilesRussian S-400 surface-to-air missiles at a military base in Kaliningrad, March 11, 2019.REUTERS/Vitaly NevarLike all air defense systems, the S-400's field of view is limited by the horizon when not networked with other assets, particularly airborne ones like AWACS or tethered balloons called aerostats. And that's where Russia's modern warfare doctrine can inhibit its success. Russia's approach to warfare, as demonstrated over five months of war in Ukraine, does not prioritize securing air dominance.This may, in fact, be the direct result of NATO's massive airpower capabilities, and the Russian understanding that it may lose air superiority in the event of a large-scale conflict against NATO. So, rather than trying to win a losing battle, Russian doctrine has shifted to accept the idea that it may not control the airspace it's fighting in."Rather than seeking to dominate a battlespace, Russia prioritizes flexibility and the ability to adapt to changing conditions in a conflict." — "Russian Armed Forces: Military Doctrine and Strategy," Congressional Research Service, March 20, 2020.Russia's approach to warfare calls for using advanced air-defense systems to mitigate the effectiveness of enemy air defenses and aircraft alike, all while using a high volume of artillery, rocket, and missile fire to gain and leverage fire superiority. Aircraft support ground forces to these ends, rather than serving as the primary means of taking control over the battlespace.What this ultimately means is that the airspace of a conflict against Russia would remain contested at best (for the Russians) and largely dominated by American or allied forces at worst. In such a scenario, using airborne assets to expand upon the S-400's reach would prove difficult. That creates an opportunity for specific kinds of attacks."Without over the horizon sensors, the S-400, and other powerful HIMADS system, are vulnerable to a low-altitude attack by cruise missiles, which, in large numbers, can overwhelm an air defense system." — "Russian S-400 Surface-to-Air Missile System: Is It Worth the Sticker Price?" by Peter A. Wilson and John V. Parachini for the Rand Corporation.This limitation can be worsened as a result of other factors that may limit line of sight, like mountainous terrain."Geographical factors weigh heavily on a system's usefulness, with mountainous features able to block the systems' sensors. A low-flying target can take advantage of geographical features and the curvature of the earth to avoid an S-400 interception for far longer than a high-flying target." — "Why the S-400 Missile is Highly Effective — If Used Correctly" assessment by the Risk Assistance Network + Exchange.These limitations, while not unique to the S-400 or to Russia, become pressing vulnerabilities when the opposition has greater control over the surrounding airspace.And because Russian military doctrine calls for securing the airspace immediately around its forces or objectives and then abandoning it when it's no longer required, Russia would likely find it difficult to leverage the S-400's long-range capabilities to the fullest extent in a large scale conflict against the United States or NATO.All air-defense systems are vulnerable to high-volume attacks, including the S-400An S-400 missile during an exercise by air-defense units of Russia's Western Military District.Mikhail MetzelbackslashTASS via Getty ImagesDespite its stated shortcomings, the S-400 system is indeed highly capable and is often characterized as more effective than America's dated but frequently updated Patriot missile systems. However, like many legacy warfare technologies, low-cost missile and drone technologies may prove too much for the S-400 to withstand.A Russian S-400 battalion usually consists of eight missile launch platforms, each armed with four missiles. Regardless of missile types, that means that the battalion can intercept a maximum of 32 targets before running out of interceptors to fire.With an outside range of about 400 kilometers (250 miles), even cargo aircraft like America's C-130 or C-17 could eventually prove effective at eliminating S-400 systems thanks to programs like Rapid Dragon, which would allow them to deploy a high volume of low-observable JASSM-ER cruise missiles from distances greater than 600 miles, though doing so would require good targeting data on the S-400s in question.That data, however, could feasibly be transmitted to these systems via F-35 flying outside the S-400's 20-mile or so targeting range.To effectively overwhelm an entire S-400 battalion, oppositional forces need only to fire more missiles than can feasibly be intercepted. The same, of course, can be said for attritable or suicide drones."Against a low-flying cruise missile, an S-400 will more likely find success at a distance in the tens of kilometers rather than in the hundreds. Ultimately, an isolated S-400 battery or even battalion will, therefore, be vulnerable to a saturation standoff attack and may even be destroyed without destroying a single enemy aircraft." — "Why the S-400 Missile is Highly Effective — If Used Correctly" assessment by the Risk Assistance Network + Exchange.This vulnerability to attacks by volume isn't unique to Russia's S-400, but it speaks to the system's very real limitations in a modern peer-level fight.Real-world failures of Russia's S-400 and related systemsRussian S-400s in Syria.Russian Defense MinistryAccording to Russia, the S-400 system has been tested a total of 32 times across six combat exercises with no failures, which is almost certainly misleading.As researchers Shea Cotton and Jeffrey Lewis pointed out in their analysis for the Nuclear Threat Initiative, it's much more likely that Russia simply doesn't disclose testing failures — which, when juxtaposed against America's testing transparency, creates a heightened perception of Russian prowess."During these tests, Russian forces fired an unknown number of interceptors, intercepting an unknown number of targets of unknown capability. Furthermore, Russia reported to state media that 100 percent of the attempted S-400 intercepts were successful.""To date we have not been able to identify any reports of failed intercept tests involving the S-400. Like our hypothesis involving India, this suggests Russia is concealing most of its developmental tests or other failed intercepts." — "The Global Missile Defense Race: Strong Test Records and Poor Operational Performance," by Shea Cotton and Jeffrey Lewis.Despite Russia's claimed successes in testing, there have been a number of high-profile failures of the S-400 and associated systems in recent years.The need for broad integration across a larger IADS was demonstrated clearly in April of 2017 when American and allied forces launched cruise missile strikes against Syrian targets in proximity to Russian S-400 systems.Russian S-400s in Syria.Russian Defense MinistryDespite Russia's claims of defending airspace at 400-kilometer ranges with the S-400, the system failed to intercept low-flying subsonic cruise missiles before they found their target — Syria's Shayrat air base — just 175 kilometers from S-400s based in Latakia."All this talk that we have secured the whole of Syrian airspace is artistic whistling," Pavel Felgengauer, a Moscow-based military analyst, told Radio Free Europe at the time. "You can more or less defend a perimeter of about 40 kilometers."Russian S-300 systems that leverage the Nebo-M radar arrays have consistently failed to prevent attacks from small drones like Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 and Israeli cruise missiles in places like Syria, and more recently, in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.The limitations of Russia's air defense systems in this fight were outlined by Shaza Arif, a researcher for the Pakistani Air Force's Centre for Aerospace And Security Studies (CASS) in January of this year. Her assessment was subsequently republished by the US Air Force's Air University:"To destroy the air defense systems, Azerbaijan used decoy aircraft in Armenian territory, which were shot at by the deployed air defense systems. This action exposed the locations of those air defense systems, which were then neutralized by drones."Russian air defense systems such as the 2K12 Kub, 9K35 Strela-10, 9K33 Osa, and 2K11 Krug could not intercept a number of drones, which either reached their intended targets or destroyed the air defense system itself. Azerbaijan has also claimed that it destroyed several batteries of the S-300 air defense systems and circulated footage in this regard. This is highly concerning, as it suggests that the S-400, which is the successor of S-300, could have similar vulnerabilities." — "India's Acquisition of the S-400 Air Defense System: Implications and Options for Pakistan" by Shaza Arif for the Centre for Aerospace And Security Studies (CASS).The broad success of similar drone attacks in Ukraine over the past five months further demonstrates this very real vulnerability of these highly touted air defense systems.The S-400 isn't as big a threat as people think, but it isn't all propaganda eitherRussian S-400s being unloaded in Syria.Russian Defense MinistryAfter a few thousand words piling on the S-400's vulnerabilities and failings, it's important to once again clarify that many of this system's shortcomings are not unique to the S-400 or Russian air-defense systems in general: As advanced as modern integrated air defenses may be, the problems presented by trying to stop a wide variety of airborne targets are simply so monumental that no system in service for any country can tout the performance often attributed to the S-400 in popular discussion.The fact of the matter is, that the S-400 and its recently deployed successor, the S-500, are indeed very capable air-defense systems, but they remain limited by the physical, financial, and geographical constraints on their operational environments and the defense capabilities of the countries that use them: Like all weapon systems, their real value can only be found when properly integrated into a larger defensive apparatus based on a functional and effective combat doctrine.The S-400 is almost certainly not the stealth-defeating air defense force field it's often claimed to be, but it is a highly effective system with scalable capabilities through networked support.Should America be scared of the big, bad S-400? With systems like the F-35 and F-22 in service and platforms like the B-21, NGAD, and F/A-XX in active development, Uncle Sam certainly shouldn't be shaking in his boots … but make no mistake about it: underestimating the S-400 in combat could prove a costly mistake, no matter what you're flying.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Insider obtained 48 pages of emails from the Department of Defense that detail how the Pentagon monitored and responded to the January 6 attacks. Pro-Trump protesters march toward the US Capitol Building on January 6, 2021 in Washington, DC. A pro-Trump mob later stormed the Capitol, breaking windows and clashing with police officers.Brent Stirton/Getty Image Insider obtained 48 pages of internal emails from the Department of Defense. The emails detail how the Pentagon monitored the January 6 attack. Initially, the military relied on journalists' tweets and news reports. As an armed mob rushed toward the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, an aide sent Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley an urgent update about congressional office building evacuations and "escalating protests."The sources of this information: journalists' tweets."Sir, For awareness … CNN's Jake Tapper reports that the Cannon and Madison congressional office buildings are being evacuated due to suspicious packages. Included below are tweets from Jake Tapper and Andrew Egger of the Dispatch on the intensifying situation at the Capitol," read the email sent at 1:50 p.m. Eastern Time, which also referenced CNN reporters Manu Raju and Phil Mattingly.The message is one among 48 pages of emails released this month by the Department of Defense as part of Insider's ongoing Freedom of Information Act lawsuit against the agency in pursuit of January 6-related government records.Together, this initial release of emails provides dramatic, if decidedly incomplete insight into Trump administration activities in the hours immediately before, during, and after a mob of President Donald Trump's supporters attacked the US Capitol on January 6. One email includes a highly redacted exchange — subject: "fencing" — between Kash Patel, chief of staff to then-Acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller, and Anthony Ornato, Trump's deputy White House chief of staff for operations, who drew national attention earlier this month after Trump aide Cassidy Hutchinson testified before the US House's January 6 select committee about him.  Hutchinson testified that Ornato told her Trump "lunged" at a Secret Service agent in a failed attempt to personally join his rioting supporters at the US Capitol. She also said Ornato told her that Trump attempted to grab the wheel of his presidential vehicle as his detail drove him back to the White House from the National Mall, where he had just urged thousands of supporters to "fight like hell," minutes before they attacked the Capitol.Patel was one of the Trump loyalists installed at the Pentagon after the president fired his defense secretary in the days after Biden's victory, an unprecedented move in the lame duck period that added to concerns that Trump may resist the peaceful transfer of power, to which he'd declined to commit as a candidate.Trump himself is the focus of the House's January 6 select committee investigation. Committee members have accused the president of refusing to call off the attackers, some of whom say they attempted to stop Congress' certification of the 2020 presidential electoral votes at Trump's behest.Underscoring the chaotic nature of the Capitol attack, many of the newly released emails contain a moment-by-moment mash-up of direct government intelligence, debunked rumors, and "open source" reports curated from media outlets and social media. Combined with what is already known about text messages sent to Trump's chief of staff and a high-level Homeland Security official who visited the Capitol in person, the new disclosures highlight a lack of preparation to secure the counting of the electoral votes and a disorganized, ad hoc response to the violent attempt to disrupt that process. The emails also include situation reports from military operations cells about the Pentagon's slow response to back up law enforcement being beaten and overrun at the Capitol.Trump supporters clash with police and security forces as they storm the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on January 6, 2021.Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images'One civilian shot ...'Emails containing intelligence from the morning of January 6 strike a cautionary but non-alarmist tone as Trump supporters began to gather on the National Mall for a "Stop the Steal" rally that Trump headlined.US Park Police "believe they can handle the POTUS event at the ellipse and National Mall," reads one update.US Secret Service "estimates the crowd in and around the Ellipse at 1000 hours in excess of 20K. There are no reported incidents at this time," read another.With at least one law enforcement agency apparently believing that the crowd could be managed, a roster of Trump's most high-profile supporters — among them, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Rep. Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina, conservative lawyer John Eastman, Trump's sons Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. — began to speak to the assembled crowd. Trump himself spoke last."We fight like hell. And if you don't fight like hell, you're not going to have a country anymore," Trump said at one point while urging them to march down Pennsylvania Avenue to the US Capitol on the National Mall's eastern end. Trump supporters did exactly that. As they did, reports of trouble emerged quickly, according to the newly released emails."Vehicle with rifle on the back seat in plain view under police control while attempting to contact the owner," read an update at 1:30 p.m. attributed to the Department of Homeland Security's National Operations Center."… drone was detected east of the Washington Monument; [US Secret Service] has taken possession of the drone, unable to locate the operator."Soon, dispatches — often labeled "civil unrest update" — grew even darker. 2 p.m.: "Crowds continue to gather at the Capitol … US Capitol is reportedly locked down due to multiple attempts to cross police barriers and police injuries."2:23 p.m.: "VPOTUS [Mike Pence] has been ushered from the US Capitol as protestors breach the Capitol Building. Additional open source reports indicate the US Senate is in recess due to a warning of an external threat."2:35 p.m.: "Mayor Muriel Bowser (Mayor, DC) ordered a citywide curfew for the District of Columbia … Additionally, Acting Deputy Secretary of DHS has authorized federal law enforcement to assist Capitol Police immediately."3 p.m.: "… one civilian shot in the chest inside of the US Capitol — UNCONFIRMED. DC Fire is performing CPR. DHS is working confirmation."3:52 p.m.: "US Capitol being evacuated; Members of Congress and Senators being evacuated …"4 p.m.: "House Minority Leader confirms shots fired inside US Capitol Building … Six people hospitalized, including one LE officer, in connection with protests at the Capitol … Explosive device discovered at RNC HQ in DC was safely detonated … DNC HQ evacuated after explosive device discovered at RNC HQ."The emails, which contained some redactions, also provided real-time fact-checking on rumors, such as when the FBI reported that a "threat to fly a plane into the Capitol building during inauguration deemed not credible …"One dispatch concluded that a report of the Proud Boys "threatening to shut down the water system in the downtown area" was "not a credible threat."Emails exchanged between Patel and Ornato during the evening of January 6 include the subject line "fencing" — although it's unclear from the highly redacted email whether it's a reference to fencing for the White House, US Capitol, the Pentagon, or a different location. The emails show the military's situation planners were closely following the pro-Trump mob's moves that day. Two days prior, Trump's acting defense secretary had imposed further restrictions on the deployment of the DC National Guard, the closest force to back up Capitol Police, ordering they could not be equipped or interact with protesters without his approval.The then-Capitol Police chief requested Defense Department forces at 1:49 p.m. after rioters breached the perimeter, but the acting defense secretary doesn't approve that request until 3 p.m., delaying their response time; the first National Guardsmen at the Capitol arrived around 5:40 p.m.The DC National Guard commander at the time said his forces were ready to respond much sooner, and a top official with the DC Guard accused the Army of covering up its response, claims the US Army has repeatedly denied.Following the January 6 insurrection, fencing for months ringed the US Capitol complex grounds with National Guard members also defending it.Ornato first emailed Patel at 11:36 p.m., indicating that Secret Service Deputy Assistant Director Mark Habersaat "can assist with vendor. Let me know if you need anything else. Thanks, Tony." Most of the message's other contents have been redacted."Rgr, thanks much," Patel replied five minutes later.Patel, who has since written a Trump-themed children's book entitled, "The Plot Against the King," is among the hundreds of people the US House's January 6 select committee has interviewed as part of its ongoing investigation into the US Capitol attack and Trump's role in it.More records promisedShortly after the January 6 attack, an Insider reporter requested that the Department of Defense release a variety of records, including communications among members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, National Security Council, and Executive Office of the President. Months later, when the Department of Defense had not yet provided the requested records in compliance with the federal Freedom of Information Act, Insider sued the agency in US District Court for the District of Columbia, where the case is still pending.In a July 7 letter to Insider, Department of Defense Associate Deputy General Counsel Stuart Sparker wrote that the agency expects to make more records public."Additional productions will be made as we continue to coordinate the review of the remaining responsive documents DoD has in its possession," Sparker wrote.A Department of Defense spokesperson acknowledged, but did not respond to, several questions sent by Insider about the emails.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has been hyper focused on maintaining the bank's powerhouse status through increased tech spending. Here's the latest. Jamie Dimon has been waging a years long war to beat the competition by investing in tech. REUTERS/Larry Downing JPMorgan, headed up by CEO Jamie Dimon since 2005, is the biggest US bank by assets. Dimon has said the bank will spend as necessary to compete with threats like buy now, pay later. The bank's spending spree has more recently attracted criticisms from investors.  Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories. JPMorgan, the biggest US bank by assets, has been hyperfocused in recent years on maintaining its powerhouse status by investing in new technologies. In 2021, CEO Jamie Dimon said the firm would spend "whatever it takes" to beat the competition, adding that as companies expand beyond just BNPL into other offerings like debit cards, they become even more of a threat. This year, Dimon has come up against criticisms from investors over the bank's rising expenses. But he shows no signs of backing down from his quest to remake the company at a time when more people are turning to their phones to cash checks, pay debts, or invest. On May 23, the bank held its first investor day in two years with eye toward selling investors on its tech vision — including costs. JPMorgan said spending on tech alone will total $14.1 billion in 2022. Nearly half of that, or $6.7 billion, the bank's CIO Lori Beer said in a presentation, will be spent "on change the bank" investments.The bank's investor day Monday encapsulated JPMorgan's efforts to show investors that its spending plans will help it fend off the competition, adapt to evolving consumer tastes, attract more Gen Z customers, and hopefully help the bank save money in the long run. Read the latest on JPMorgan's battle with fintechs: JPMorgan just outlined its most detailed plan yet for increased spending on tech and fintech products, despite investor criticisms. Here are 9 slides laying out the playbook.JPMorgan just made another fintech bet. Here's a rundown of the bank's deals and investments.Jamie Dimon says competition from Apple and Walmart is 'intensifying' as the CEO justifies JPMorgan's spending on tech and acquisitionsJPMorgan's COO fired a warning shot at fintech stars like Stripe, Square, and PayPal: Wall Street was asleep at the wheel, but now it's time to 'really compete with them'JPMorgan is buying restaurant-site The Infatuation, as Wall Street battles for big spenders on dining and travelInside JPMorgan's massive tech org Lori Beer, JPMorgan's global chief information officerEric Kayne/AP Images for JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPMorgan has a $14.6 billion annual tech budget and employs about 50,000 technologists. Underpinning all of that is Lori Beer, JPMorgan's global chief information officer, and her team of top tech brass.Beer joined JPMorgan in 2014 as the CIO of corporate and investment banking. In 2017 she was named global CIO and joined the bank's operating committee, reporting directly to Jamie Dimon, the CEO and chairman.Insider mapped out the key tech executives at JPMorgan who report to Beer and help her lead the bank's massive tech org. Many on her team are focused on specific business lines. There are chief information officers appointed to divisions like corporate and investment banking, asset and wealth management, and consumer and community banking.Some executives work across the bank, focusing on areas like employee experience and technology architecture. Others, like Monika Panpaliya, the head of JPMorgan's global technology-product office, are running their groups to operate more like startups.Keep reading: JPMorgan is adding 25 'mini-CEOs' as part of a massive plan to overhaul its 50,000-strong tech organization and pivot the bank to operate more like a startupInside JPMorgan's appointment of 25 'mini-CEOs' and new strategy to operate more like a startup, which the bank says was straight out of Google's playbookInside JPMorgan's multi-cloud strategy: Here's why the bank's global infrastructure CIO says it's the 'winning' approach even as rivals pick primary cloud providersHow JPMorgan organizes its massive tech org: Global CIO Lori Beer's 8 key execs helping her manage the firm's $12 billion tech budget.JPMorgan's rising stars are often in tech rolesAllison Beer is the the new CEO of Chase's card business.Allison BeerIn an effort to fend off the competition, adapt to evolving consumer tastes, and attract more Gen Z customers, JPMorgan has taken to hiring aggressively to maintain its dominant position, including a chief information officer from Lyft and a head of content from Robinhood.The hiring spree is resulting ina very different JPMorgan from the one that survived the financial crisis and is creating a new center of gravity when it comes to the reins of power there.JPMorgan announced in September 2021 that Alison Beer would take over as CEO of cards for Chase, its consumer-banking division. She's the third woman in a row to run the bank's cards business, and she stepped into the role after Marianne Lake was promoted this spring to co-lead the firm's massive consumer and community banking business alongside Jennifer Piepszak. The bank has also been hiring aggressivley from Goldman Sachs' consumer bank Marcus. Read more: 9 recent hires transforming JPMorgan Chase as it races to attract Gen Z customers, fend off fintechs, and maintain its powerhouse statusJPMorgan just snagged another MD from Marcus — marking its fourth major hire from Goldman Sachs' burgeoning consumer bank since JulyJPMorgan Chase just named Bori Cox the new CFO of consumer and community banking. Read the full memo announcing the promotion.JPMorgan's CIO for commercial banking will now head up product for the division as the bank elevates more tech leaders to business rolesThe battle to be JPMorgan's next CEO is heating up. Here are 5 people in the running to succeed Jamie Dimon.JPMorgan just named 2 new co-heads of consumer banking, and the leadership shakeup gives clues to who could eventually take over from CEO Jamie DimonOther recent JPMorgan tech news:JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon is going all-in on the cloud. Here's how the bank plans to use the tech in 2022.JPMorgan's CIO of global tech infrastructure is bullish on edge computing being the next big trend on Wall Street. Here's why.One of JPMorgan's top tech execs details how the bank decides between its public and private cloud, and why it's not going all-in on one providerA JPMorgan tech banker is jumping ship to Zoom to lead M&A strategy as the videoconferencing giant hunts for deals to keep its explosive growth going post-pandemicRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»