Advertisements



Weekend Wheels: New Toyota crossover bets on link to world’s most popular car

Base price range, including destination: $23,660 Mpg range: 31/33, front-wheel drive; 29/32, all-wheel Seating: 5 Manufactured: Huntsville, Ala. Insurance Institute of Highway Safety: Top safety pick with good ratings in all crash tests; www.iihs.org JDPower.com rating: Not yet rated, 0-69 indicates fair, 70-80 average, 81-90 great, 91-100 best Website: www.toyota.com Competitors: Chevrolet Trailblazer, Fiat 500X, Ford EcoSport, Honda HR-V, Hyundai Tucson, Jeep Compass, Kia Sportage and….....»»

Category: topSource: bizjournalsAug 6th, 2022

Futures Slide After China"s "Huge" Data Miss Sparks "Broad-Based Recession Talk"

Futures Slide After China's "Huge" Data Miss Sparks "Broad-Based Recession Talk" Friday's bear market rally dead-cat bounce appears to be over, and global stocks have started the new week in the red with US equity futures lower after a "huge miss", as Bloomberg put it, in Chinese data fueled concerns over the impact of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. As reported last night, China’s industrial output and consumer spending hit the worst levels since the pandemic began, hurt by Covid lockdowns. And even though officials took another round of measured steps to help the economy by cutting the interest rate for new mortgages over the weekend to bolster an ailing housing market, even as they left the one-year policy loan rate was left unchanged Monday, few believe that any of these actions will have a tangible impact and most continue to expect much more from Beijing.  As such, after a weekend that saw even Goldman's perpetually optimistic equity strategists slash their S&P target (again) from 4,700 to 4,300, and amid growing fears that a recession is now inevitable, Nasdaq 100 futures slid as much as 1.2%, before paring losses to 0.4% as of 730 a.m. in New York. S&P 500 futures were down 0.3%. 10Y Treasury yields were flat at 2.91% and the dollar dipped modestly while bitcoin traded just above $30,000 dropping from $31,000 earlier in the session. Among notable moves in premarket trading, Spirit Airlines jumped as much as 21% following a report that JetBlue Airways is planning a tender offer at $30 a share in cash. Major US technology and internet stocks were down after rebounding on Friday, while Tesla shares dropped, with the electric-vehicle maker set to recall 107,293 cars in China over a potential safety risk. Twitter shares fall 3.4% in premarket trading on Monday, on course to wipe out all the gains the stock has made since billionaire Elon Musk disclosed his stake in the social media platform. Twitter fell to as low as $37.86 -- below the the April 1 close of $39.31, before Musk disclosed his stake. US stocks have been roiled this year, with the S&P 500 on tick away from a bear market as recently as last Thursday, on worries of an aggressive pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve at a time when macroeconomic data showed a slowdown in growth. Data from China on Monday highlighted a massive toll on the economy from Covid-19 lockdowns, with retail sales and industrial output both contracting. Although lower valuations sparked a rally in stocks on Friday, strategists including Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson warned of more losses ahead as equity markets also price in slower corporate earnings growth. Goldman Sachs strategists led by David Kostin cut their year-end target for the S&P 500 on Friday to 4,300 points from 4,700.  "The broad-based recession talk is the major catalyzer this Monday,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note. “Activity in US futures hint that Friday’s rebound was certainly nothing more than a dead cat bounce” just as we said at the time.  The risk of an economic downturn amid price pressures and rising borrowing costs remains the major worry for markets. Goldman Sachs Group Senior Chairman Lloyd Blankfein urged companies and consumers to gird for a US recession, saying it’s a “very, very high risk.” Traders remain wary of calling a bottom for equities despite a 17% drop in global shares this year, with Morgan Stanley warning that any bounce in US stocks would be a bear-market rally and more declines lie ahead. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index fell as much as 0.8% before paring losses, with declines for tech and travel stocks offsetting gains for basic resources as industrial metals rallied. The Euro Stoxx 50 falls 0.4%. IBEX outperforms, adding 0.3%. Tech, personal care and consumer products are the worst performing sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Basic Resources stocks outperformed with broad gains among mining and steel companies; ArcelorMittal +3.5%; SSAB +2.6%; Glencore +2.1%; Voestalpine +3.1%. Sartorius AG and Sartorius Stedim shares gain as UBS upgrades both stocks to buy following a “significant de-rating” for the lab-equipment companies, seeing supportive global trends. Carl Zeiss Meditec gains as much as 4.9% after HSBC raised its recommendation to buy from hold, saying the medical optical manufacturer is “well-equipped to deal with supply chain challenges.” Interpump rises as much as 7.6%, extending winning streak to five days, as Banca Akros upgrades the stock to buy from accumulate following Friday’s 1Q results. Casino shares jump as much 5.8% after the French grocer said it’s started a process to sell its GreenYellow renewable energy arm, confirming a Bloomberg News report from Friday. Ryanair shares decline as much as 4.3% on FY results, with analysts focusing on the low-budget carrier’s recovery outlook. They note management is cautiously optimistic about summer travel. Vantage Towers shares decline after the company posted FY23 adjusted Ebitda after leases and recurring free cash flow forecasts that missed analyst estimates at mid- points. Unilever falls after a 13-F filing from Nelson Peltz’s Trian shows no position in the company, according to Jefferies, damping speculation after press reports earlier this year that the fund had built a stake. Michelin shares fall as much as 3.7% after being downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan, which says it writes off any chance of seeing a recovery in volume production growth in FY22. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks eked out modest gains as surprisingly weak Chinese economic data spurred volatility and caused traders to reassess their outlook on the region. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index was up 0.1%, paring an earlier advance of as much as 0.9%  on stimulus hopes. The region’s information technology index rose as much as 1.5%, with TMSC giving the biggest boost. A sub-gauge on materials shares fell the most. Equities in China led losses, as Beijing’s moves to cut the mortgage rate for first-time home buyers and ease lockdown restrictions in Shanghai failed to reverse the downbeat mood. Asian stocks were trading higher early Monday, building on Friday’s rally, only to trim or reverse gains as data showed a sharper-than-expected contraction in Chinese activity in April. Signs of an earnings recovery in China are needed for investors to come back, Arnout van Rijn, chief investment officer for APAC at Robeco Hong Kong Ltd., said on Bloomberg Television. “It looks like China is not going to meet the 15% earnings growth that people were looking for just a couple of months ago. So now we’re looking for five, 10, maybe it’s even going to fall to zero.”   Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts, who had called China tech “uninvestable” in March, upgraded some tech heavyweights including Alibaba in a Monday report, citing less regulatory uncertainties. Benchmarks in Japan, Australia, India and Taiwan maintained gains while Hong Kong also recovered some ground later in the day. Markets in Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia were closed for holidays.      Japanese equities were mixed, with the Topix closing slightly lower after worse-than-expected Chinese economic data amid the impact from virus-related lockdowns. The Topix fell 0.1% to close at 1,863.26, with Honda Motor contributing the most to the decline after its forecast for the current year missed analyst expectations. The Nikkei advanced 0.5% to 26,547.05, with KDDI among the biggest boosts after announcing its results and a 200 billion yen buyback. “Though the lockdowns in China are pushing down the economy and causing supply chain difficulties, there’s a positive outlook since the weekend that there could be a gradual easing of the lockdowns as it seems that virus cases have peaked out,” said Masashi Akutsu, chief strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3% to 7,093.00, trimming an earlier advance of as much as 1.1% after soft Chinese economic data stoked concerns about global growth. Read: Aussie, Kiwi Slump After Weak China Data: Inside Australia/NZ Brambles was the top performer after confirming it’s in talks with private equity firm CVC Capital Partners on a takeover proposal. Qube also climbed after completing a A$400 million share buyback.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.1% to 11,157.66. In rates, Treasuries were steady with yields within 1bp of Friday’s close. US 10-year yield near flat ~2.91% with bunds cheaper by ~5bp, gilts ~3.5bp amid heavy. German 10-year yield up 5 bps, trading narrowly below 1%. Italian 10-year bonds underperform, with the 10-year yield up 8 bps to 2.93%. Peripheral spreads are mixed to Germany; Italy and Spain widen and Portugal tightens. The Italy 10-year was cheaper by more than 6bp on the day amid renewed ECB jawboning. Core European rates are higher, pricing in ECB policy tightening. During Asia session, Chinese data showed industrial output and consumer spending at worst levels since the pandemic began. The dollar issuance slate includes CBA 3T covered SOFR; $30b expected for this week as syndicate desks seek opportunities for pent-up supply. Three-month dollar Libor +1.13bp at 1.45500%. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed while the greenback advanced against most of its Group-of-10 peers. Treasuries inched lower, led by the front end, and outperformed European bonds. The euro inched up against the dollar. Italian bonds dropped, leading peripheral underperformance against euro- area peers, while money markets showed increased ECB tightening wagers after policy maker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said a consensus is “clearly emerging” at the central bank on normalizing monetary policy and that June’s meeting will be “decisive.” He also signaled that the weakness of the euro is focusing the minds of ECB policy makers at a time when the currency is heading toward parity with the dollar. The euro may resume its rally versus the pound in the spot market as options traders pile up bullish wagers. The pound fell against both the dollar and euro, staying under selling pressure on concerns that high UK inflation will weigh on the economy. Markets await testimony from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and other central bank officials later in the day, ahead of a reading of April inflation later in the week. Australian and New Zealand dollars fell after Chinese industrial and consumer data fanned concerns of a further slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. In commodities, WTI drifts 0.4% lower to trade above $110. Spot gold pares some declines, down some $6, but still around $1,800/oz. Most base metals trade in the green; LME tin rises 3.4%, outperforming peers. Bitcoin falls 4.6% to trade below $30,000 Looking ahead, we get the US May Empire manufacturing index, Canada April housing starts, March manufacturing, wholesale trade sales. Central bank speakers include the Fed's Williams, ECB's Lane, Villeroy and Panetta, BOE's Bailey, Ramsden, Haskel and Saunders. We get earnings from Ryanair, Take-Two Interactive. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,008.75 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 433.33 MXAP up 0.2% to 160.34 MXAPJ up 0.2% to 523.32 Nikkei up 0.5% to 26,547.05 Topix little changed at 1,863.26 Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 19,950.21 Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,073.75 Sensex up 0.6% to 53,119.79 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,093.03 Kospi down 0.3% to 2,596.58 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.98% Euro up 0.1% to $1.0424 Brent Futures down 1.4% to $109.98/bbl Gold spot down 0.8% to $1,797.30 US Dollar Index little changed at 104.46 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg NATO members rallied around Finland and Sweden on Sunday after they announced plans to join the alliance, marking another dramatic change in Europe’s security architecture triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine The euro area’s pandemic recovery would almost grind to a halt, while prices would surge even more quickly if there are serious disruptions to natural-gas supplies from Russia, according to new projections from the European Commission UK energy regulator Ofgem plans to adjust its price cap every three months instead of every six. Changing the level more often would help consumers to take advantage of falling wholesale prices more quickly, it said in a statement Monday. This would also mean higher prices filter through bills quicker Boris Johnson has warned Brussels that the UK government will press ahead with unilateral changes to parts of the Brexit agreement if it does not engage in “genuine dialogue” While debt bulls on Wall Street have been crushed all year, market sentiment has shifted markedly over the past week from inflation fears to growth. That theme gathered more strength Monday, when data showing China’s economy contracted sharply in April set off fresh gains for Treasuries China’s economy is paying the price for the government’s Covid Zero policy, with industrial output and consumer spending sliding to the worst levels since the pandemic began and analysts warning of no quick recovery. Industrial output unexpectedly fell 2.9% in April from a year ago, while retail sales contracted 11.1% in the period, weaker than a projected 6.6% drop Japanese manufacturers are increasingly looking to move offshore operations to their home market, according to a Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co. executive. The rapidly weakening yen, global supply-chain constraints, geopolitical risks and shifting wages patterns are prompting the switch, Kiyoshi Imamura, a managing director of the steelmaker, said in an interview in Tokyo last week A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed after disappointing Chinese activity data clouded over the early momentum from Friday’s rally on Wall St. ASX 200 was higher as tech stocks were inspired by US counterparts and amid M&A related newsflow with Brambles enjoying a double-digit percentage gain after it confirmed it had talks with CVC regarding a potential takeover by the latter. Nikkei 225 kept afloat as earnings releases provided the catalysts for individual stocks but with gains capped by a choppy currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp initially gained with property names underpinned after China permitted a further reduction in mortgage loan interest rates for first-time home purchases and with casino stocks also firmer in the hope of a tax reduction on gaming revenue. However, the mood was then spoiled by weak Chinese data and after the PBoC maintained its 1-year MLF rate. Top Asian News PBoC conducted a CNY 100bln in 1-year MLF with the rate kept unchanged at 2.85% and stated the MLF and Reverse Repo aim to keep liquidity reasonably ample, according to Bloomberg. Beijing extended work from home guidance in several districts and announced three additional rounds of mass COVID-19 testing in most districts including its largest district Chaoyang, according to Reuters. Shanghai will gradually start reopening businesses including shopping malls and hair salons in China's financial and manufacturing hub beginning on Monday following weeks of a strict lockdown, according to Reuters. Shanghai city official said 15 out of the 16 districts achieved zero-COVID outside quarantine areas and the city's epidemic is under control but added that risks of a rebound remain and they will need to continue to stick to controls. The official said the focus until May 21st will be to prevent risks of a rebound and many movement restrictions are to remain, while they will look to allow normal life to resume in Shanghai from June 1st and will begin to reopen supermarkets, convenience stores and pharmacies from today, according to Reuters. Chinese financial authorities permitted a further reduction in mortgage loan interest rates for some home buyers whereby commercial banks can lower the lower limit of interest rates on home loans by 20bps based on the corresponding tenor of benchmark Loan Prime Rates for purchases of first homes, according to Reuters. China's stats bureau spokesman said economic operations are expected to improve in May and that China is steadily pushing forward production resumption in COVID-hit areas, while they expect China's economic recovery and rebound in consumption to quicken but noted that exports face some pressure as the global economy slows, according to Reuters. Macau is reportedly considering a tax cut for casinos amid a decline in gaming revenue in which a cut could be as much as 5% off the current 40% levied on casino gaming revenue, according to Bloomberg. European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%, following a similar APAC session with impetus from Shanghai's reopening offset by activity data and geopolitics. Stateside, futures are lower across the board, ES -0.4%, with the NQ marginally lagging as yields lift; Fed's Williams due later before Powell on Tuesday. US players are focused on whether the end-week bounce is a turnaround from technical bear-market levels or not. China's market regulator says Tesla (TSLA) has recalled 107.3k Model 3 & Y vehicles, which were made in China. JetBlue (JBLU) is to launch a tender offer for Spirit Airlines (SAVE); JetBlue is to offer USD 30/shr, but prepared to pay USD 33/shr if Spirit provides JetBlue with requested data, WSJ sources say. Elon Musk tweeted that Twitter’s (TWTR) legal team called to complain that he violated their NDA by revealing the bot check sample size and he also tweeted there is some chance that over 90% of Twitter’s daily active users might be bots. Top European News UK PM Johnson is reportedly set to give the green light for a bill on the Northern Ireland protocol, according to the Guardian. UK PM Johnson said he hopes the EU changes its position on the Northern Ireland protocol and if not, he must act, while he sees a sensible landing spot for a protocol deal and will set out the next steps on the protocol in the coming days, according to Reuters. UK PM Johnson is expected to visit Northern Ireland on Monday for talks with party leaders in an effort to break the political deadlock at Stormont, according to Sky News. Irish Foreign Minister Coveney says the EU is prepared to move on reducing checks on goods coming into the region from Britain, via Politico. UK Cabinet ministers have turned on the BoE regarding rising inflation, whereby one minister warned that the Bank was failing to "get things right" and another suggested that it had failed a "big test", according to The Telegraph. Group of over 50 economists warned that the UK's post-Brexit plans to boost the competitiveness of its finance industry risk creating the sort of problems that resulted in the GFC, according to Reuters. European Commission Spring Economic Forecasts: cuts 2022 GDP forecast to 2.7% from the 4.0% projected in February. Click here for more detail. Central Banks ECB's Villeroy expects a decisive June meeting and an active summer meeting, pace of further steps will account for actual activity/inflation data with some optionality and gradualism; but, should at least move towards the neutral rate. Will carefully monitor developments in the effective FX rate, as a significant driver of imported inflation; EUR that is too weak would go against the objective of price stability.   ECB’s de Cos said the central bank will likely decide at the next meeting to end its stimulus program in July and raise rates very soon after that, while he added that they are not seeing second-round effects and are monitoring it, according to Reuters. FX Euro firmer following verbal intervention from ECB’s Villeroy and spike in EGB yields EUR/USD rebounds from sub-1.0400 to 1.0435 at best. Dollar up elsewhere as DXY pivots 104.500, but Yen resilient on risk grounds as Chinese data misses consensus by some distance; USD/JPY capped into 129.50. Franc falls across the board after IMM specs raise short bets and Swiss sight deposits show SNB remaining on the sidelines; USD/CHF above 1.0050 at one stage. However, HKMA continues to defend HKD peg amidst CNY, CNH weakness in wake of disappointing Chinese industrial production and retail sales releases. Norwegian Crown undermined by pullback in Brent and narrower trade surplus, EUR/NOK over 10.2100. SA Rand soft as Gold retreats to test support around and under Usd 1800/oz. Loonie slips with WTI ahead of Canadian housing starts, manufacturing sales and wholesale trade, Sterling dips before BoE testimony; USD/CAD 1.2900+, Cable sub-1.2250. Fixed income EGBs rattled by ECB rhetoric inferring key policy meetings kicking off in June and extending through summer. Bunds down towards 153.00 and 10 year yield back up around 1%, Gilts almost 1/2 point adrift and T-note erasing gains from 12/32+ above par at best. Eurozone periphery underperforming with added risk-off angst following much weaker than expected Chinese data. In commodities WTI and Brent are pressured, but well off lows, and torn between China's lockdown easing and poor activity data amid numerous other catalysts Specifically, the benchmarks are around USD 110/bbl and USD 111/bbl respectively, Saudi Aramco Q1 net income rose 82% Y/Y to INR 39.5bln for its highest quarterly profit since listing, according to Sky News. Saudi Energy Minister says they are going to get to 13.2-13.4mln BPD, subject to what is done in the divided zone, by end-2026/start-2027; can maintain production when there, if the market demands this. OPEC+ to continue with monthly output increases, according to Bahrain's oil minister via Reuters. Iraqi state-run North Oil Company said Kurdish armed forces took control of some oil wells in northern Kirkuk, according to Reuters. Iraq oil minister says they aim to increase oil production to 6mln BPD by end-2027, OPEC is targeting a energy market balance not a price; adding, current production capacity is 4.9mln BPD, will reach 5mln BPD before the end of 2022. China is to increase fuel prices from Tuesday, according to China's NDRC; gasoline by CNY 285/t and diesel by CNY 270/t. US Event Calendar 08:30: May Empire Manufacturing, est. 15.0, prior 24.6 16:00: March Total Net TIC Flows, prior $162.6b DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Markets managed a big bounce on Friday but the mood has soured again in the Asian session after a weak slew of data from China as covid lockdowns had an even worse impact than expected. Industrial production (-2.9% vs +0.5% expected), retail sales (-11.1% vs -6.6% expected) and property investment (-2.7% vs -1.5% expected) all crashed through estimates by a large margin. The slump in retail sales and industrial production was the weakest since March 2020. The latter also had the lowest print on record, with the worst decline coming from auto manufacturing (-31.8%). The surveyed jobless rate (6.1% vs estimates of 6.0%) also ticked up by more than expected from 5.8% in March and is now close to the high of 6.2% in February 2020. Although the 1-year policy loan rate was left unchanged today, the PBoC did ease the rate on new mortgages this weekend. In other data releases, Japan’s April PPI (+10.0%) came in above estimates of +9.4%, the highest since 1980. Amid this, the Shanghai Composite (-0.51%) and the Hang Seng (-0.43%) are in the red, and outperformed by the KOSPI (-0.21%) and the Nikkei (+0.46%). The sentiment has soured in American markets too, with S&P 500 futures also trading lower (-0.68%) and the US 10y yield declining by -2.2bps. Oil (-1.48%) is edging lower too on growth concerns. After last week’s meltdown in crypto markets, Bitcoin is back at above $30k this morning – a jump since the lows of nearly $26k last Thursday but way short of the $38k it traded at in the beginning of the month and $68k early last November. The infamous TerraUSD, the stablecoin that fuelled the crypto slide, is at $0.18. It is supposed to trade at $1 at all times. Looking forward now and there's not a standout event to focus on this week but they'll be plenty to keep us all occupied. US retail sales (tomorrow) looks like the highlight alongside Powell's speech the same day. There will also be US housing data smattered across the week and UK and Japanese inflation on Wednesday and Friday respectively. Let's start with US retail sales as it will be a good early guide for Q2 GDP. Our US economists are anticipating a +1.7% print, up from +0.7% in March. Rebounding auto sales should help the headline number. For more on the consumer, Brett Ryan put out this chartbook last week on the US consumer (link here). US industrial production is out the same day. We have a long list of central bank speakers this week headed by Powell and Lagarde (tomorrow) and BoE Bailey today. There are many more spread across the week and you can see the list in the day by day event list at the end. We do have the last ECB meeting minutes on Thursday but the subsequent push towards a July hike might make these quite dated. US housing will be a big focus next week. It's probably too early for the highest mortgage rates since 2009 to kick in but with these rates around 220bps higher YTD, some damage will surely soon be done after the highest YoY price appreciation outside of an immediate post WWII bounce, in our 120 year plus housing database. On this we will see the NAHB housing market index (tomorrow), April’s US building permits and housing starts (Wednesday), and existing home sales (Thursday). Turning to corporate earnings, it will be another quiet week after 457 of the S&P 500 companies and 368 of the STOXX 600 companies have reported earnings this season so far. Yet, it will be an important one to gauge how the US consumer is faring amid inflation at multi-decade highs, including reports such as Walmart, Home Depot (tomorrow), Target and TJX (Wednesday). Results will also be due from China's key tech and ecommerce companies like JD.com (tomorrow), Tencent (Wednesday) and Xiaomi (Thursday). Other notable corporate reporters will include Cisco (Wednesday), Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks (Thursday) and Deere (Friday). A quick recap of last week’s markets now. Fears that global growth would slow due to the tightening task at hand for central banks sent ripples across markets, without a clear specific catalyst. Equities declined, credit spreads widened, the dollar rallied, and sovereign yields declined. The S&P 500 fell for the sixth consecutive week for the first time since 2011, falling -13.0% over that time. Even with a +2.39% rally on Friday, it fell -2.41% last week. Large cap technology firms underperformed, with the NASDAQ falling -2.80% (+3.82% Friday), while the FANG+ index fell -3.48% (+5.45% Friday). Volatility was elevated, with the Vix closing above 30 for 6 straight days for the first time since immediately following the invasion, narrowly avoiding a 7th straight day above 30 by closing the week at 28.8. European equities outperformed, with the STOXX 600 climbing +0.83% after a banner +2.14% gain Friday. The Itraxx crossover ended the week at 446bps, its widest level since June 2020. Crypto assets sharply declined, with Bitcoin down -12.51% and Coinbase -34.58% over the week, with a number of so-called ‘stablecoins’ breaking their pledged parity, forcing some to stop trading. The growth fears drove a flight to quality. The dollar index increased +0.87% (-0.27% Friday) to its highest levels since 2002. Only the yen outperformed the US dollar in the G10 space. Sovereign yields rallied significantly, with 10yr Treasuries, bunds, and gilts falling -19.3bps (+8.5bps Friday), -23.0bps (+6.2bps Friday), and -28.7bps (+4.7bps Friday), respectively. Reports that the EU was considering softening their oil-related sanctions due to member resistance combined with growth fears to send oil prices much lower at the beginning of the week, with Brent crude futures almost breaking $100/bbl. When all was said and done, a gradual rally over the back half of the week saw Brent merely -1.04% lower (+3.82% Friday). On the back of disappointing data from China it is down -1.48% this morning. There was a lot of high-profile central bank speak to work through, as there will be this week. The main takeaways included Fed officials aligning behind a series of +50bp hikes the next few meetings, downplaying the chances of +75bp hikes until September at the earliest. Meanwhile, momentum in the ECB is growing toward a July policy rate hike, with policy rates breaching positive territory by the end of the year. In terms of data Friday, the University of Michigan survey of inflation expectations for the next five years was unchanged at 3 percent, though inflation has weighed on consumers’ perception of the current situation. Tyler Durden Mon, 05/16/2022 - 08:02.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeMay 16th, 2022

Futures Rise Ahead Of Deluge Of Big Tech Earnings

Futures Rise Ahead Of Deluge Of Big Tech Earnings One day after Goldman doubled down on its call for a market meltup into year-end, futures on the Nasdaq 100 edged higher, while contracts on the S&P 500 were modestly higher on Monday, approaching record highs again as investors braced for a flood of earnings (164 of 500 S&P companies report this week) while weighing rising inflation concerns, Covid-19 risks and China’s deteriorating outlook (Goldman slashed China's 2022 GDP to 5.2% from 5.6% overnight). The FOMC enters quiet period ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, which means no Fed speakers as attention shifts to economic data and corporate earnings. At 745 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 3 points, or 0.01%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 4.25 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 36.25 points, or 0.25%. Bitcoin bounced back over $63,000 after sliding below $60,000 over the weekend, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose and the dollar also rose after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell flagged that inflation could stay higher for longer, fueling investor concern that sticky price increases may force policy makers to raise borrowing costs. Global markets have remained resilient despite risks from price pressures stoked by supply-chain bottlenecks and higher energy costs. On Sunday, Janet Yellen was among those counseling the inflation situation reflects temporary pain that will ease in the second half of 2022 even as Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey warned hyperinflation is coming. Investors are wary that tighter monetary policy to keep inflation in check will stir volatility “Inflation concerns will continue to dominate markets this year as the price of crude oil remains elevated,” while “the pandemic remains a central concern,” said Siobhan Redford, an analyst at FirstRand Bank Ltd. in Johannesburg. “This will add further complexity to the already difficult decisions facing policy makers around the world.” All of FAAMG - Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon.com - are set to report their results later this week. The companies shares, which collectively account for over 22% of the weighting in the S&P 500, were mixed in trading before the bell. Facebook shares fell in premarket trading, extending six weeks of declines, after Bloomberg reported that the social-media company is struggling to attract younger users and that employees are concerned over the spread of misinformation and hate speech on its platform. The company is scheduled to report quarterly results after the market closes. “After Snap got an Apple caught in its throat, markets will have an itchy trigger finger over the sell button if the social network says the same,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA. “Additionally, this week, it is a FAANG-sters paradise ... that decides whether the U.S. earnings season party continues, before the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) reasserts its dominance next week.” PayPal jumped 6.4% as the company said it wasn’t currently pursuing an acquisition of Pinterest, ending days of speculation over a potential $45 billion deal. Shares of Pinterest plunged 12.5%. Tesla gained 2.2% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the stock by a third, citing “extraordinary” sales growth. The stock then surged to new all time highs after Bloomberg reported that Hertz placed an order for 100,000 Teslas in the first step of an ambitious plan to electrify its rental-car fleet. Oil firms including Chevron Corp and Exxon Mobil rose about 0.5% each, tracking Brent crude prices to three-year high. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks gain in premarket trading as Bitcoin climbs back above the $63,000 per token level after slipping from its record high last week. Crypto-linked stocks that are climbing in premarket include Bakkt +6.6%, Hive Blockchain +3.9%, Hut 8 Mining +2.8%, Riot Blockchain +2.2%, MicroStrategy +2.3%, Marathon Digital +2.8%, Coinbase +1.9%, Silvergate +1.8%, Bit Digital +1.2% and Mogo +0.8% Strong earnings reports helped lift the S&P 500 and the Dow to record highs last week, with the benchmark index rising 5.5% so far in October to recoup all of the losses suffered last month.  However, market participants are looking beyond the impressive earnings numbers with a focus on how companies mitigate supply chain bottlenecks, labor shortages and inflationary pressures to sustain growth. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 34.8% year-on-year for the third quarter, according to data from Refinitiv. On the economic data front, readings on U.S. third-quarter GDP - the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, the core PCE price index and consumer confidence data will be released later this week. In Europe, mining companies and banks gained but the telecommunications and industrial goods and services sectors declined, leaving the Stoxx 600 index little changed. Banks rose on HSBC’s bright outlook. Spain’s Banco de Sabadell SA jumped more than 5% after rejecting an offer for its U.K. unit. Telecoms and industrials were the biggest losers. Volvo Car slashed its initial public offering by a fifth, making it the latest in a string of European companies to pull back from equity markets roiled by soaring energy costs and persistent supply chain delay. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Banca Monte dei Paschi slides as much as 9.5% after the Italian government and UniCredit ended talks over the sale of the lender. Exor shares gain as much as 5.6% in Milan trading to the highest level on record after a report that the Agnelli family’s holding co. revived talks with Covea for the sale of Exor’s reinsurance unit PartnerRe. Banco Sabadell jumps as much as 5.6% after it said it rejected an offer for its TSB Bank unit in the U.K. from Co-operative Bank. SSAB rises as much as 5.2% after the Swedish steelmaker posted 3Q earnings well above analysts expectations. Handelsbanken analyst Gustaf Schwerin said the figures were “very strong.” Weir Group rises as much as 3.7% after Exane BNP Paribas raised the stock to outperform. Analyst Bruno Gjani says the stock’s underperformance YTD provides a “compelling entry opportunity.” Darktrace drops as much as 26% after Peel Hunt initiated coverage of the cybersecurity firm with a sell rating and 473p price target that implies about 50% downside to Friday’s close. Nordic Semiconductor declines as much as 8.8% after ABG Sundal Collier downgraded to hold. German business morale deteriorated for the fourth month running in October as supply bottlenecks in manufacturing, a spike in energy prices and rising COVID-19 infections are slowing the pace of recovery in Europe’s largest economy from the pandemic. The Ifo institute said on Monday that its business climate index fell to 97.7 from an upwardly revised 98.9 in September. This was the lowest reading since April and undershot the 97.9 consensus forecast in a Reuters poll. “Supply problems are giving businesses headaches,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said, adding that capacity utilisation in manufacturing was falling. “Sand in the wheels of the German economy is hampering recovery.” The weaker-than-expected business sentiment survey was followed by a grim outlook from Germany’s central bank, which said in its monthly report that economic growth was likely to slow sharply in the fourth quarter. The Bundesbank added that full-year growth was now likely to be “significantly” below its 3.7% prediction made in June. Earlier in Asia, stocks dipped in Japan and were mixed in China, where the central bank boosted a daily liquidity injection and officials expanded a property-tax trial. Signs that it would take at least five years before authorities impose any nationwide property tax bolstered some industrial metals.  Asia-Pac equities kicked off the week with a downside bias as the region adopted a similar lead from Friday’s Wall Street session, although sentiment marginally improved. The ASX 200 (+0.3%) was kept afloat by its energy sector as oil prices drifted higher, whilst index heavyweight Telstra was boosted after partnering with the Australian government to acquire Digicel Pacific in USD 1.6bln deal - for which Telstra contributed only USD 270mln. The Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) opened lower by around 1% with Softbank and Fast Retailing the biggest losers, although the index initially trimmed losses as the JPY remained on the backfoot. The Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.8%) were mixed at the open, with the latter supported by a net PBoC injection of CNY 190bln, while the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (-2.9%) was pressured by reports China's State Council is to expand the property-tax reform trials to more areas. On the flip side, China Evergrande and Evergrande New Energy Vehicle opened higher after the chairman said the group is to complete its transition to the NEV industry from real estate within 10 years. Finally, 10yr JGBs trade subdued and in contrast to its US and German counterparts. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after earlier inching lower to touch the weakest level since Sept. 27; the greenback was mixed against its Group-of-10 peers with commodity currencies performing best, led by the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone. The euro hovered around $1.1650 even as German business confidence took another hit in October as global supply logjams damp momentum in the manufacturing-heavy economy. Ifo business confidence fell to 97.7 in October, from 98.9 in the prior month. The pound inched up, rising alongside other risk- sensitive Group-of-10 currencies, having trailed all its peers on Friday after Brexit risks reared their head late in the London session. A quiet week for U.K. data turns focus to the upcoming government budget. The Australian dollar rose against all its Group-of-10 peers, tracking commodity gains, with market sentiment also boosted by the People’s Bank of China’s move to inject additional cash into the banking system. The yen declined after rising for three consecutive days; Economists expect the BoJ to keep its policy rate unchanged Thursday. Turkey’s lira fell to a record low as the country’s latest diplomatic spat gave traders another reason to sell the struggling currency. Day traders in Japan have started trimming their bullish wagers on the Turkish lira, with forced liquidation a growing threat as the currency tumbles. In rates, Treasuries were under pressure again, with the yield curve steeper as US trading begins Monday. They’re retracing a portion of Friday’s swift flattening, which occurred after Fed Chair Powell said rising inflation rates would draw a response from the central bank. 5s30s curve is back to ~89bp vs Friday’s low 85bp, within half a basis point of the lowest level in more than a year. Long-end yields are higher by as much as 3bp, 10-year by 2.7bp at 1.66%, widening vs most developed-market yields; yields across the curve remain inside Friday’s ranges, which included higher 2- and 5-year yields since 1Q 2020. Curve-steepening advanced after an apparent wager via futures blocks. In commodities, Brent oil rallied above $86 a barrel after Saudi Arabia urged caution in boosting supply. Gold rose for a fifth day, the longest run of gains since July, as risks around higher-for-longer inflation bolstered the metal’s appeal. Facebook will report its third quarter results after the market today, followed by Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon later in the week.  On the economic data front, readings on U.S. third-quarter GDP - the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, the core PCE price index and consumer confidence data will be released later this week. Top Overnight News from Bloomberg S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,542.25 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 472.03 MXAP little changed at 200.13 MXAPJ up 0.1% to 661.46 Nikkei down 0.7% to 28,600.41 Topix down 0.3% to 1,995.42 Hang Seng Index little changed at 26,132.03 Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,609.86 Sensex up 0.4% to 61,038.76 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,441.00 Kospi up 0.5% to 3,020.54 Brent Futures up 0.7% to $86.14/bbl Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,800.45 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.10% to 93.55 Euro up 0.1% to $1.1655 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen defended Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s record on regulating the financial system, which has been a target of criticism from progressive Democrats arguing he shouldn’t get a new term. Yellen said she expects price increases to remain high through the first half of 2022, but rejected criticism that the U.S. risks losing control of inflation. Speaker Nancy Pelosi opened the door to Democrats using a special budget tool to raise the U.S. debt ceiling without the support of Senate Republicans, whose votes would otherwise be needed to end a filibuster on the increase. President Joe Biden and fellow Democrats are racing to reach agreement on a scaled-back version of his economic agenda, with a self-imposed deadline and his departure later this week for summits in Europe intensifying pressure on negotiations. Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann’s surprise announcement last week that he will leave on Dec. 31 has hit Berlin at a sensitive time, with Chancellor Angela Merkel currently running only a caretaker administration in the aftermath of an election whose outcome is likely to remove her CDU party from power. Some holders of an Evergrande bond on which the embattled developer had missed a coupon deadline last month received the interest before the end of a grace period Saturday, according to people familiar with the matter. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac equities kicked off the week with a downside bias as the region adopted a similar lead from Friday’s Wall Street session, although sentiment marginally improved with the region now mixed heading into the European open. US equity futures overnight opened trade with a mild negative tilt before drifting higher, with a broad-based performance experienced across the Stateside contracts, whilst European equity contracts are marginally firmer. Back to APAC, the ASX 200 (+0.3%) was kept afloat by its energy sector as oil prices drifted higher, whilst index heavyweight Telstra was boosted after partnering with the Australian government to acquire Digicel Pacific in USD 1.6bln deal - for which Telstra contributed only USD 270mln. The Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) opened lower by around 1% with Softbank and Fast Retailing the biggest losers, although the index initially trimmed losses as the JPY remained on the backfoot. The Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.8%) were mixed at the open, with the latter supported by a net PBoC injection of CNY 190bln, whilst the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (-2.9%) was pressured by reports China's State Council is to expand the property-tax reform trials to more areas. On the flip side, China Evergrande and Evergrande New Energy Vehicle opened higher after the chairman said the group is to complete its transition to the NEV industry from real estate within 10 years. Finally, 10yr JGBs trade subdued and in contrast to its US and German counterparts. Top Asian News Xi Takes Veiled Swipe at U.S. as China Marks 50 Years at UN Hong Kong Convicts Second Person Under National Security Law Gold Extends Gain as Inflation Risks and Virus Concerns Persist Amnesty to Quit Hong Kong Citing Fears Under Security Law A tentative start to the week for European equities (Stoxx 600 U/C) as stocks struggle to find direction. On the macro front, the latest IFO report from Germany was mixed, with commentary from IFO downbeat, noting that Germany's economy faces an uncomfortable autumn as supply chain problems were causing trouble for companies, and production capacities were falling. The overnight session was a mixed bag with the Shanghai Composite (+0.8%) supported by a liquidity injection from the PBoC whilst the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (-2.9%) was pressured by reports China's State Council is to expand the property-tax reform trials to more areas. Stateside, US futures are marginally firmer with newsflow in the US in part, focused on events on Capitol Hill with CNN reporting that the goal among Democratic leaders is to have a vote Wednesday or Thursday on the infrastructure package. Note, the Fed is currently observing its blackout period ahead of the November meeting. From an earnings perspective, large-cap tech earnings dominate the slate for the week with the likes of Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) all due to report. Back to Europe, sectors are somewhat mixed as Basic Resources is the marked outperformer amid upside in underlying commodity prices. It’s been a busy morning for the Banking sector as HSBC (+1%) reported a 74% increase in Q3 earnings, whilst Credit Suisse (+0.7%) is reportedly mulling the sale of its asset management unit. Less encouragingly for the sector, UniCredit (-0.5%) and BMPS (-3.2%) shares are lower after negations on a rescue plan for BMPS have ended without an agreement. Finally, Airbus (-1.2%) and Safran (-2.3%) sit at the foot of the CAC after reports suggesting that the CEO's of Avolon and AerCap have, in recent weeks, written to the Airbus CEO expressing their concerns that the market will not support Airbus' aggressive plans to increase the pace of production; subsequently, Airbus has rejected their proposal, according to sources. Top European News The Man Behind Erdogan’s Worst Spat With the West: QuickTake Weidmann Succession Suspense May Last for Weeks on Berlin Talks Cat Rock Capital Urges Just Eat Takeaway to Sell GrubHub European Gas Jumps Most in a Week as Russian Supplies Slump In FX, the Dollar is somewhat mixed vs major counterparts and the index is jobbing around 93.500 as a result in rather aimless fashion at the start of a typically quiet start to the new week awaiting fresh impetus or clearer direction that is highly unlikely to come from September’s national activity index or October’s Dallas Fed business survey. Instead, the Greenback appears to be reliant on overall risk sentiment, US Treasury yields on an outright and relative basis along with moves elsewhere and technical impulses as the DXY roams within a 93.775-483 range. TRY - Lira losses continue to stack up, and the latest swoon to circa 9.8545 against the Buck came on the back of Turkish President Erdogan’s decision to declare 10 ambassadors persona non grata status due to their countries’ support for a jailed activist, including diplomats from the US, France and Germany. However, Usd/Try has actually pared some gains irrespective of a deterioration in manufacturing confidence and this may be partly psychological given that 10.0000 is looming with little in the way of chart resistance ahead of the big round number. AUD/NZD - Iron ore prices are helping the Aussie overcome rather mixed news on the COVID-19 front, as the state of Victoria is on course to open up further from Friday, but new cases in NSW rose by almost 300 for the second consecutive day on Sunday. Nevertheless, Aud/Usd has had another look at offers around 0.7500 and Aud/Nzd is approaching 1.0500 even though Westpac sees near term downside prospects for the cross while maintaining its 1.0600 year end projection, as Nzd/Usd continues to encounter resistance and supply into 0.7200. GBP/CAD - Sterling has regrouped after losing some of its hawkish BoE momentum and perhaps the Pound is benefiting from the latest rebound in Brent prices towards Usd 86.50/br on top of reports that the first round of talks between the UK and EU on NI Protocol were constructive, while the Loonie is up alongside WTI that has been adobe Usd 84.50 and awaiting the BoC on Wednesday. Cable is around 1.3750 after fading into 1.3800, Eur/Gbp is hovering above 0.8450 and Usd/Cad is pivoting 1.2350. EUR/JPY/CHF - The Euro has bounced from the lower half of 1.1600-1.1700 parameters and looks enshrined by a key Fib just beyond the current high (1.1670 represents a 38.2% retracement of the reversal from September peak to October trough) and decent option expiry interest under the low (1 bn between 1.1615-00), with little fundamental direction coming from a very inconclusive German Ifo survey - see 9.00BST post on the Headline Feed for the main metrics and accompanying comments from the institute. Elsewhere, the Yen is hedging bets prior to the BoJ within a 113.83-42 band against the Dollar and the Franc seems to have taken heed of another rise in weekly Swiss sight deposits at domestic banks as Usd/Chf climbs from circa 0.9150 towards 0.9200 and Eur/Chf trades nearer the top of a 1.0692-65 corridor. SCANDI/EM/PM - Firm oil prices are also underpinning the Nok, Rub and Mxn to various extents, while the Zar looks content with Gold’s advance on Usd 1800/oz and the Cnh/Cny have derived traction via a firmer onshore PBoC midpoint fix, a net Yuan 190 bn 7 day liquidity injection and the fact that China’s Evergrande has restarted work on more than 10 projects having made more interest payments on bonds in time to meet 30 day grace period deadlines. In commodities, a modestly firmer start to the week for the crude complex though action has been contained and rangebound throughout the European session after a modest grinding bid was seen in APAC hours. Currently, the benchmarks post upside of circa USD 0.30/bbl amid relatively minimal newsflow. The most pertinent update to watch stems from China, where the National Health Commission spokesperson said China's current COVID outbreak covers 11 provinces and expects the number of new cases to keep rising; additionally, the number of affected provinces could increase. Separately, but on COVID, they are some reports that the UK Government is paving the wat for ‘plan B’ measures in England, while this are primarily ‘softer’ restrictions a return of work-from-home guidance could hamper the demand-side of the equation. Note, further reports indicate this is not on the cards for this week and there are some indications that we could see, if necessary, such an announcement after the COP26 summit in Scotland ends on November 12th. Elsewhere, and commentary to keep an eye on for alterations given the above factors, Goldman Sachs writes that the persistence of the global oil demand recovery being on course to hit pre-COVID levels would present an upside risk to its end-2021 USD 90/bbl Brent price target. Moving to metals, spot gold and silver are firmer but reside within tight ranges of just over USD 10/oz in gold, for instance. In a similar vein to crude, newsflow explicitly for metals has been minimal but it is of course attentive to the COVID-19 situation while coal futures were hampered overnight as China’s State Planner announced it is to increase credit supervision in the area. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.20, prior 0.29 10:30am: Oct. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 6.2, prior 4.6 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Well I saw Frozen twice this weekend. Once in the flesh up in London in the musical version and once on TV on Sunday at the heart of Manchester United’s defence which was breached 5 (five) times by Liverpool without reply. Regular readers can guess which I enjoyed the most. Anyway I’ll let it go for now and prepare myself for a bumper week ahead for markets. This week we have decisions from the ECB and the Bank of Japan (both Thursday) even if the Fed will be on mute as they hit their blackout period ahead of the likely taper decision next week. Inflation will obviously remain in the spotlight too as we get the October flash estimate for the Euro Area (Friday) with some regional numbers like German (Thursday) before. In addition, the Q3 earnings season will ramp up further, with 165 companies in the S&P 500 reporting, including Facebook (today), Microsoft, and Alphabet (both tomorrow), and Apple and Amazon (Thursday). Elsewhere, the UK government will be announcing their latest budget and spending review (Wednesday), Covid will remain in the headlines in light of the growing number of cases in many countries, and we’ll get the first look at Q3 GDP growth in the US (Thursday) and the Euro Area (Friday). Starting with those central bank meetings, we’re about to enter a couple of important weeks with the ECB and BoJ meeting this week, before the Fed and the BoE follow the week after. Market anticipation is much higher for the latter two though. So by comparison, the ECB and the BoJ are likely to be somewhat quieter, and our European economists write in their preview (link here) that this Governing Council meeting is likely to be a staging ground ahead of wide-ranging policy decisions in December, and will therefore be about tone and expectations management. One thing to keep an eye on in particular will be what is said about the recent surge in natural gas prices, as well as if ECB President Lagarde challenges the market pricing on liftoff as inconsistent with their inflation forecasts and new rates guidance. 5yr5yr Euro inflation swaps hit 2% for the first time on Friday so if the market is to be believed the ECB has achieved long-term success in hitting its mandate. With regards to the meeting, we think there’ll be more action in December where our economists’ baseline is that there’ll be confirmation that PEPP purchases will end in March 2022. See the BoJ preview here. Inflation will remain heavily in focus for markets over the week ahead, with recent days having seen investor expectations of future inflation rise to fresh multi-year highs. See the week in review at the end for more details. This week one of the main highlights will be the flash Euro Area CPI reading for October, which is out on Friday. Last month, CPI rose to 3.4%, which is the highest inflation has been since 2008, and this time around our economists are expecting a further increase in the measure to 3.8%. However, their latest forecast update (link here) expects that we’ll see the peak of 3.9% in November, before inflation starts to head back down again. The other main data highlight will come from the Q3 GDP figures, with releases for both the US and the Euro Area. For the US on Thursday the Atlanta Fed tracker has now hit a low of only +0.53%. DB is at 2.3% with consensus at 2.8%. Earnings season really ramps up this week, with the highlights including some of the megacap tech firms, and a total of 165 companies in the S&P 500 will be reporting. Among the firms to watch out for include Facebook and HSBC today. Then tomorrow, we’ll hear from Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Texas Instruments, UPS, General Electric, UBS and Twitter. On Wednesday, releases will include Thermo Fisher Scientific, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Boeing, General Motors, Santander and Ford. Thursday then sees reports from Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Comcast, Merck, Royal Dutch Shell, Linde, Volkswagen, Starbucks, Sanofi, Caterpillar, Lloyds Banking Group and Samsung. Finally on Friday, we’ll hear from ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Charter Communications, Daimler, BNP Paribas, Aon and NatWest Group. Here in the UK, the main highlight next week will be the government’s Autumn Budget on Wednesday, with the Office for Budget Responsibility also set to release their latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook alongside that. In addition to the budget, the government will also be outlining the latest Spending Review, which will cover public spending priorities over the next 3 years. Our UK economists have released a preview of the event (link here), where they write that 2021-22 borrowing is expected to be revised down by £60bn, and they expect day-to-day spending will follow the path set out at the Spring Budget. They’re also expecting Chancellor Sunak will outline new fiscal rules. Finally, the pandemic is gaining increasing attention from investors again, with a number of countries having moved to toughen up restrictions in light of rising cases. This week, something to look out for will be the US FDA’s advisory committee meeting tomorrow, where they’ll be discussing Pfizer’s request for an emergency use authorization for its vaccine on 5-11 year olds. The CDC’s advisory committee is then holding a meeting on November 2 and 3 the following week, and the White House have said that if it’s authorised then the vaccine would be made available at over 25,000 paediatricians’ offices and other primary care sites, as well as in pharmacies, and school and community-based clinics. The full day by day calendar is at the end as usual. Asian markets are mixed this morning so far, as the Shanghai Composite (+0.38%), Hang Seng (+0.09%) and the KOSPI (+0.30%) are edging higher, while the Nikkei (-0.85%) is down. The rise in Chinese markets comes despite the news of 38 new COVID-19 cases as well as an announcement of a lockdown affecting around 35,700 residents of a county in Inner Mongolia. As China is one of the last countries in the world to still adhere to strict containment measures, a major outbreak can deal a fresh blow to the domestic economy and further reinforce global supply chain issues. Elsewhere the Turkish Lira hit fresh record lows, and is down around -1.5% as we type after last week’s surprise interest rate cut and Saturday’s news that ambassadors from 10 countries, including the US, Germany and France, were no longer welcome in the country. S&P 500 futures (+0.06%) are around unchanged and 10yr US Treasury yields are back up c.1bp. Looking back on an eventful week now, and there was a marked increase in inflation expectations, which manifested itself in global breakevens hitting multi-year, if not all-time, highs. Starting with the all-time highs, US 5-year breakevens increased +14.9bps (-1.0bps Friday) to 2.90%, the highest level since 5-year TIPS have started trading, while 10-year breakevens increased +7.5bps (-0.7bps Friday) to 2.64%, their highest readings since 2005. 10-year breakevens in Germany increased +9.5 bps (+3.6bps Friday) to 1.91%, their highest since 2011, while in the UK 10-year breakevens increased +17.1 bps (+4.0bps Friday) to 4.19%, the highest level since 1996. Remarkable as these levels are, 5-year 5-year inflation swaps in the US, UK, and Euro Area finished the week at 2.63%, 4.00%, and 2.00%, multi-year highs for all of these measures. If you never thought you’d see the day that long term inflation expectations in Europe would hit 2% then this is a nice/nasty surprise. Overall, this suggests investors are pricing in the potential for inflation far into the future to be higher, in addition to responding to near-term stimulus and Covid reopening impacts. Crude oil prices also climbed to their highest levels since 2014, with Brent climbing +1.07% (+1.37% Friday) and WTI gaining +2.07% (+1.79% Friday). One area where there was some reprieve was in industrial metals. Copper decreased -4.81% (-1.24% Friday), but at $449.80, remains +10.10% higher month-to-date. Bitcoin also joined the all-time high club intraweek, and finished the week +2.28% higher (-3.08% Friday). It marked a seminal week for the crypto asset, which saw ETFs and options on said ETFs begin trading in the US. The inflationary sentiment coincided with market pricing of central bank rate hikes shifting earlier. 2-year yields in the US, UK, and Germany increased +5.9 bps (+0.1bps Friday), +8.0 bps (-4.7 bps Friday), and +4.0 bps (+0.9bps Friday) respectively. In fact, money markets are now placing slightly-better-than even odds that the MPC will raise Bank Rate as early as next week. Fed and ECB officials offered some push back against the aggressive policy path repricing, but BoE speakers seemed to confirm a hike next week was a legitimate possibility. Rounding out sovereign bonds, nominal 10-year yields increased +6.2 bps (-6.9bps Friday) in the US, +4.0 bps (-5.6bps Friday) in the UK, +6.2 bps (-0.3 bps Friday) in Germany, +6.0 bps (-0.1bpFriday) in France, and +8.1 bps (+0.8bps Friday) in Italy. Inflation expectations didn’t fall with the big rally in the US and U.K. but real rates rallied hard. The S&P 500 increased +1.64% over the week, but ended its 7-day winning streak after retreating on -0.11% Friday. On earnings, 117 S&P 500 companies have now reported third quarter earnings. Roughly 85% of companies have beat earnings expectations compared to the five-year average of 76%, while 74% of reporting companies have beat sales estimates. The aggregate earnings surprise is +13.05%, topping the 5-year average of +8.4%, while the sales surprise is +2.06%. Although a seemingly strong performance on the surface, our equity team, after taking a look under the hood in this note here, points out that a large part of the beats so far is due to loan-loss reserve releases by banks. Excluding those, the aggregate S&P 500 beat is running much closer to historical average, suggesting the headline beats have not been as broad based as they look at first glance. Congressional Democrats spent the week negotiating the next fiscal package, which is set to spend more than $1 trillion on social priorities key to the Biden administration. On Sunday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi noted that 90% of the bill is agreed to and would be voted on before October was out. One of the key sticking points has been what offsetting revenue raising measures should be included in the final bill. As those details emerge, it should give us a better picture as to the ultimate additional fiscal impulse the new bill will provide. Finally, global services PMIs out last Friday expanded while manufacturing PMIs lagged. Readings across jurisdictions were consistent with supply chain issues continuing to impact activity. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/25/2021 - 08:09.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 25th, 2021

Netflix (NFLX) Series Stranger Things 4 Sets Viewership Record

Netflix (NFLX) rides on the growing popularity of viewership of its original content that might aid subscriber growth during the rest of 2022. Netflix’s NFLX popular original series, Stranger Things Season 4 has become the second series to hit a billion hours of viewing time, after 2021's Korean survival-thriller Squid Game, which clocked in 1.65 billion hours in its first 28 days.This milestone comes after the show's fourth season concluded with the second volume of the final two episodes, which were released on Jul 1, according to streamers’ internal tracking. The first seven episodes earned 930.32 million hours during their first 28 days, while episodes eight and nine contributed 301.28 million hours to total viewing time during the Jun 27 to Jul 3 week.Last weekend, Stranger Things stayed in the top 10 series on Netflix in 93 countries around the world. The science-fiction drama, starring Winona Ryder and Millie Bobby Brown, has become the first television series in the English language and the second TV series overall to surpass one billion hours of viewing time.Netflix, Inc. Price and Consensus Netflix, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Netflix, Inc. QuoteNetflix Enjoys Growing Popularity of Original ContentOf late, Netflix has been witnessing a rise in viewership of its popular content portfolio. The third season of The Umbrella Academy came in second on the Netflix Top 10 Series Chart with 88 million hours viewed.Meanwhile, the comedy series Man vs. Bee had 25.4 million hours viewed. The final season of Peaky Blinders pulled in an additional 18.4 million hours viewed. The dynamic duo of Kevin Hart and Woody Harrelson held the No. 1 spot on the English films list as The Man From Toronto had 62.6 million hours viewed. Love & Gelato had 18.9 million hours viewed and was in the top 10 Netflix series list. Adam Sandler’s Hustle had an additional 14.6 million hours viewed during the week. Nollywood drama Glamour Girls debuted at #5 with 12.4 million hours viewed.On the non-English TV list, Money Heist: Korea — Joint Economic Area came in first for the second week in a row with 49 million hours viewed. Following the launch of the series, La Casa de Papel/Money Heist, Part 1, it entered the list in the ninth spot with 8.6 million hours viewed. Spanish drama Intimacy maintained its standing on the list with 10.8 million hours viewed.New entrants on the list included the Korean drama Alchemy of Souls with 9.9 million hours viewed, Japanese anime series Bastard!! — Heavy Metal, Dark Fantasy with 8.9 million hours viewed and Polish drama Queen with 7.4 million hours viewed.This comes amid growing competition from the likes of Apple AAPL owned Apple TV+, Amazon’s AMZN Prime Video and Disney’s DIS Disney+, with popular shows available on both.Squid Game star, Hoyeon will soon make her Apple TV+ debut with Disclaimer. Apple has been expanding its genre base to attract varied viewers, as is evident from its foray into the live sports streaming space. Apple TV+ has won exclusive rights to broadcast Major League Soccer ("MLS") worldwide, starting from 2023 for 10 years.Disney recently began offering its streaming service, Disney+, in 16 countries across the Middle East and North Africa. Given the breadth of content of Disney+, the streaming platform is expected to grab the second spot, with a subscriber base of 6.5 million in the region by 2027, trailing only Netflix, which is likely to have a viewer base of 11 million per Digital TV Research data. Amazon is expected to outperform Starzplay, with 4.8 million subscribers, to grab the third spot.In the year-to-date period, Netflix’s shares have tumbled 69.2% compared with the Zacks Broadcast Radio and Television industry’s and the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector’s declines of 55.9% and 34.4%, respectively.This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company’s underperformance is primarily attributed to stiff competition in the streaming space. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Nevertheless, Netflix’s diversified content portfolio, attributable to heavy investments in the production and distribution of localized, foreign-language content, is a key catalyst.Netflix is expected to add 5.29, 4.7 and 3.7 million subscribers in 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively, in APAC. It has renewed a raft of its Asian originals lately, including Korean hits like Squid Game, teen zombie horror All Of Us Are Dead, and D.P.The company has been leveraging the talent of local producers in Asia lately and some of its bets have turned into home runs, such as The White Tiger and Crash Landing on You. Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. It’s a little-known chemical company that’s up 65% over last year, yet still dirt cheap. With unrelenting demand, soaring 2022 earnings estimates, and $1.5 billion for repurchasing shares, retail investors could jump in at any time. This company could rival or surpass other recent Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in little more than 9 months and NVIDIA which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock and 4 Runners Up >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Free Stock Analysis Report Apple Inc. (AAPL): Free Stock Analysis Report Netflix, Inc. (NFLX): Free Stock Analysis Report The Walt Disney Company (DIS): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here......»»

Category: topSource: zacksJul 6th, 2022

Futures Slide As Recesson Fears Trump Tariff Optimism

Futures Slide As Recesson Fears Trump Tariff Optimism The rally that pushed stocks well above 3,800 during Monday's illiquid session when US cash stocks were closed for July 4 amid speculation that Biden was about to rollback many Chinese tariffs (unclear how this would help ease inflation but a move that the market clearly read as risk positive), fizzled as soon as Europe opened this morning and alongside the tumbling euro which plunged to a 20-year-low and approached parity with the USD on growing recession fears, also dragged US equity US futures lower as investors turned their focus back to the looming recession, which outweighed optimism around an improvement in Washington’s ties with Beijing. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were down 0.7% by 730 a.m. in New York, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.6%. The cash market was closed for a holiday on Monday.  10Y TSY yields swung from gains to losses before trading 2bps higher around 2.90% while bitcoin rose, and traded around $20K after dropping below $19K over the weekend. US markets are set to reopen Tuesday after capping 11 declines in the past 13 weeks as an unprecedented first-quarter contraction boosted the prospects of a recession to near certainty. At the same time, consumer prices are far from peaking with inflation surging to 8.6% in May that left little room for the Federal Reserve to slow monetary tightening.   Sentiment was lifted on Monday as senior US and Chinese officials discussed US economic sanctions and tariffs amid reports the Biden administration is close to rolling back some of the trade levies imposed by President Donald Trump. While that came as a relief, investors continued to fret over a potential US recession, stubborn inflation and monetary tightening. Economic reports in Europe, including French purchasing managers’ indexes, came in below estimates. “The Fed will likely remain aggressive in its fight against inflation for now,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy, accounting and sustainability at Liberum Capital. “At the same time, European growth is slowing down fast. This just puts additional fire on the growth concerns about the US.” “The government is very conscious that they need to act on the supply side of the inflation issue because the Fed has been slamming the brakes on the demand side whereas the real issue is on the supply side,” said Deepak Mehra, the head of investments at the Commercial Bank of Dubai. “Trying to fix that issue is giving the market a bit of an ease and comfort that we are finally addressing the problem where it is and not giving the wrong medicine,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Among notable moves in premarket trading, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks edged higher as Bitcoin briefly traded above the closely watched $20,000 level.  Recession fears echoed in US premarket trading, where Carnival Corp. and ASML Holding NV dropped more than 4% each. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson said the US economy is firmly in the middle of a slowdown that’s turning out to be worse than expected amid the war in Ukraine and China’s Covid Zero policy. “Any fall in rates should be interpreted as more of a growth concern rather than as potential relief from the Fed,” they wrote in a note. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Cowen (COWN US) shares jump as much as 14% in US premarket trading, following a report late Friday that Canadian bank Toronto-Dominion was said to be exploring a takeover of the brokerage. Piper Sandler says that a possible combination would be “reasonable” for Cowen at the right price. Antero Resources (AR US) shares rise 2.8% in premarket trading after the stock was upgraded to buy from hold at Truist Securities, with the broker saying that a recent selloff in the oil company is an opportune entry point given gas and natural gas liquids are likely to remain strong. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are gaining in US premarket trading on Tuesday as Bitcoin trades above the closely watched $20,000 level. Coinbase (COIN US) +1.4%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +1.9%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) +2.4%, MicroStrategy (MSTR US) +2.8%, Ebang (EBON US) +5.9% Tesla (TSLA US) shares fall 0.8% in premarket trading, though analysts note that the electric vehicle company’s record production in June is a silver lining in an otherwise disappointing quarter of deliveries. Netflix (NFLX US) shares decline 0.8% in premarket trading as Piper Sandler cuts PT to $210 from $293, reiterating neutral recommendations, while estimating that the company’s ad-supported tier, which is expected to launch by year-end, represents a quarterly revenue opportunity of about $1.4 billion. HP Inc. (HPQ) shares slip 2% as Evercore ISI downgrades the tech company to in-line, saying PC “headwinds could get more severe.” Most European equity indexes slumped over 1% with miners, autos and insurance names among the worst-performing Stoxx 600 sectors. CAC 40 and FTSE 100 lag, dropping as much as 1.4%. Miners underperformed the broader European market on Tuesday amid concerns over the risks of a global recession and the blow it would deliver to demand for raw materials. Copper fell to the lowest level in 17 months and traded solidly below $8,000 a ton, as sentiment remains sour toward the industrial material used in everything from construction to new energy vehicles. Stoxx 600 Basic Resources sub-index declines 1.6% as of 9:42am in London, led lower by miners like Antofagasta, KGHM and Anglo American, even as iron ore rises after a four-day slide. Broader European benchmark is down 0.4%. The Stoxx 600 energy sub-index slides 1.3% after rising most since May on Monday. TotalEnergies drops 1.6%, BP -1.1%, Shell -1.3%. Shares in renewable fuel producer Neste outperform, rising 1.3%. The Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index dropped 1.5%, the third-worst performing subgroup in the broader European equity market. Automakers had their worst June sales in decades in the UK, while German new-car registrations also plunged. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Miners and energy shares underperform the broader European market on Tuesday amid concerns over the risks of a global recession and the blow it would deliver to demand for raw materials. KGHM shares decline as much as 6.7%, Anglo American -4.5%, TotalEnergies -2.5%, Shell -2.2% Rheinmetall shares fall as much as 6.1%; Deutsche Bank expects 2Q at the lower end of the guidance range for the quarter while most-in-focus unit Defence will likely trend above. SAS falls as much as 15% after the company announced it was filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US. European media stocks slide after Goldman Sachs slashed earnings forecasts across its media and internet coverage to factor in a more cautious macro outlook. Prosieben drops as much as 9.5%, Publicis -4.5% Uniper shares edged lower, paring earlier gains of as much as 11%, as analysts speculated on what a possible government bailout might look like. Dechra Pharmaceuticals advances as much as 4.5% on Tuesday after RBC upgrades to outperform in note in which it describes the stock as the “pick of the litter.” Cellnex Telecom shares rise as much as 5% following a Bloomberg News report that a KKR-led consortium is emerging as the frontrunner to buy a stake in Deutsche Telekom’s tower unit, beating out a rival bid from Cellnex and Brookfield Asset Management that had been viewed negatively by analysts. Lonza Group climbs as much as 3.8% after it got upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi, citing the market’s under-appreciation of demand for biologics manufacturing. PGS shares soar as much as 20% as Pareto Securities upgrades the oilfield services firm to buy following a period under review, with the broker saying that “the future is looking brighter” for the company. The euro extended its losses, tumbling to the lowest level since 2002 against the dollar. It also slid to the weakest since January 2015 against the Swiss franc. Earlier in the session, Asian equities were modestly higher Tuesday as China’s stocks gave back early gains after initial enthusiasm about the country’s improving ties with the US waned.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% before narrowing the advance to 0.2% as of 6:14 p.m. in Singapore. Energy and health care shares were among the gainers.  Chinese shares fell, after the province of Anhui reported more than 200 Covid cases for Monday and market participants assessed whether the potential scrapping of US tariffs on Chinese goods would help address global inflation concerns. The US 10-year Treasury yield trimmed an intraday advance over recession worries, giving tech shares a slight boost. Australia’s main index edged higher as the domestic central bank met market expectations by raising interest rates a half-percentage point and suggesting that inflation may peak this year. Benchmarks in the Philippines and South Korea led gains in Asia, with each rising at least 1.8%.  “The easing of tariffs -- if confirmed -- comes at the dream timing to save its economy from the endless virus battle,” said Hebe Chen, an analyst at IG Markets, referring to the China. “Even though it may not stop the downtrend, it could at least slow the pace and restore the world’s confidence in the second-largest economy.” Meanwhile, Thailand’s gauge was the latest to enter a technical correction. Asian stocks have been stuck in range-bound trading since the end of April as markets digest higher interest rates, the possibility of a recession in advanced economies and continued virus flareups in China. The MSCI regional gauge is down more than 18% this year In Australia, the central bank raised its key interest rate as expected to 1.35%. It’s among more than 80 central banks to have raised rates this year. The nation’s dollar weakened after the decision. Key equity gauges in India pared early advances to close lower as worries over an economic recession weighed on the sentiments.  The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 0.2% to 53,134.35 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index also dropped by the same magnitude. Stocks rose earlier in the day, tracking advances in Asian peers on the possibility of US rolling back some levies on China. A fast progress of monsoon rainfall, which waters most farmland in India, along with quarterly earnings for top companies that start this week added to the sentiment.   Consumer goods maker ITC was the biggest drag on the Sensex, falling 1.7%. Seven of BSE Ltd.’s 19 sectoral sub-gauges declined, led by information technology companies.    Asia’s biggest software exporter Tata Consultancy Services, will kickoff the April-June earnings season for companies on Friday In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced for a third day as the greenback gained against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Treasuries were mixed. The single currency fell as much as 0.9% to 1.0331, its weakest level since December 2002, with losses compounded by poor liquidity and selling in euro-Swiss franc. German bond curve bull steepened and money markets trimmed ECB tightening bets to less than 140 basis points this year after French services PMI was revised lower. That’s down from more than 190 basis points almost three weeks ago, widening the interest-rate differential with the Federal Reserve. Scandinavian currencies were also dragged down by the euro sell-off and were leading G-10 losses against the greenback. Cable fell amid broad- based dollar strength. Bank of England rate-setter Silvana Tenreyro speaks later Tuesday and the BOE will issue its financial stability report. The Australian dollar extended a slump on the back of the broad-based US dollar strength. The Aussie had already given up gains after the RBA increased its cash rate to 1.35% as expected. It had risen earlier amid reports the US will roll back tariffs on some Chinese goods. The yen pared an Asia session loss as risk sentiment worsened. In rates, Treasuries were off session lows reached during Asia session, remain under pressure as US markets reopen after Monday’s holiday, giving back a portion of Friday’s steep gains. Five- and 10-year yields remain below 50-DMA levels while 2- and 30-year are back above. Yields higher by as much as 6bp at short end vs ~3bp at long end after rising as much as 13bp and 9bp, respectively. 2s10s curve is slightly positive after briefly inverting for first time since mid-June; 5s30s spread ~22bp after reaching widest level since May 31 on Friday. Short-end Germany richens over 10bps, outperforming gilts. Cash USTs fade Asia’s gains. Peripheral spreads widen to core with short-end Italy underperforming. In commodities, brent crude swung between gains and losses, last trading Brent down 1.5% near $111.78, while WTI rose after a long holiday weekend in the US with investors weighing still-strong underlying market signals against concerns a recession will eventually sap demand. Most base metals trade in the red; LME aluminum falls 2.8%, underperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $5 to trade near $1,803/oz. Bitcoin resides underneath the USD 20k mark and at session lows of 19.4k amid the broader risk tone. BoE Financial Stability report said falling crypto markets expose vulnerability, but not stability risk overall. To the day ahead now, and data highlights include the global services and composite PMIs for June, as well as the ISM services index from the US. Otherwise, there’s French industrial production for May and US factory orders for May. From central banks, the BoE will be releasing their Financial Stability Report and we’ll also hear from the BoE’s Tenreyro. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 3,814.75 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 408.04 MXAP up 0.3% to 157.72 MXAPJ up 0.2% to 521.38 Nikkei up 1.0% to 26,423.47 Topix up 0.5% to 1,879.12 Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 21,853.07 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,404.03 Sensex up 0.3% to 53,387.68 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,629.33 Kospi up 1.8% to 2,341.78 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.27% Euro down 0.8% to $1.0338 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $114.01/bbl Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,803.33 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.64% to 105.81 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Senior US and Chinese officials discussed US economic sanctions and tariffs Tuesday amid reports the Biden administration is close to rolling back some of the trade levies imposed by former President Donald Trump UK automakers had their worst June sales in decades in the UK as ongoing components shortages kept them from meeting demand. New-car registrations declined by 24% to 140,958 vehicles, the lowest for the month since 1996, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders Italy declared a state of emergency in five northern and central regions devastated by a recent drought, as a severe heat wave takes its toll on agriculture and threatens power supplies A more detailed summary of global markets courtesy of newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly positive amid a pick-up from the holiday lull although Chinese markets faltered. ASX 200 was led by the tech and commodity-related sectors with further support from a lack of hawkish surprise from the RBA. Nikkei 225 was propelled by a weaker currency but pulled back from early highs after hitting resistance around the 26,500 level and following softer-than-expected wages data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were both initially lifted following reports US President Biden could make a decision on rolling back some China tariffs as soon as this week and with Vice Premier Liu He said to have had a constructive exchange with US Treasury Secretary Yellen on the economy and supply chains. Furthermore, participants also welcomed the strong Caixin Services and Composite PMI data, although the advances in the mainland were then pared as the central bank continued to drain liquidity and amid lingering COVID concerns. Top Asian News PBoC injected CNY 3bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 107bln net drain. China is to set up a CNY 500bln state infrastructure investment fund and will issue 2023 advance local government special bonds quota in Q4, according to Reuters sources. Chinese Premier Liu He spoke with US Treasury Secretary Yellen regarding the economy and supply chains, while the exchange was said to be constructive and both sides believed in the need to strengthen communication and coordination of macro policies between China and the US, according to Reuters. US Treasury Department confirmed Treasury Secretary Yellen held a virtual meeting with China's Vice Premier Liu He as part of efforts to maintain open lines of communication, while they discussed macroeconomic and financial developments in both China and US, as well as the global economic outlook and food security challenge. Furthermore, Yellen raised issues of concern including the impact of Russia's war against Ukraine on the global economy and "unfair, non-market PRC economic practices", according to Reuters. RBA hiked the Cash rate Target by 50bps to 1.35%, as expected, while it reiterated that the board expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions with the size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the board's assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market. Furthermore, the central bank noted that Australian inflation was high but was not as high as in other countries and it forecast inflation to peak this year before declining back towards the 2-3% range next year. European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%, as a broader risk-off move takes hold despite a relatively constructive APAC handover and limited newsflow in European hours. A move that has impaired US futures, ES -0.4%, as we await the lead from stateside participants re-joining after the long-weekend with a quiet schedule ahead. European sectors are predominantly in the red, though the clear defensive bias is keeping the likes of Food and Healthcare afloat. Top European News UK faces its first national train drivers' strike in 25 years with the head of the UK train drivers' union warning of 'massive' disruption as members vote on their first strike since 1995, according to FT. BoE Financial Stability Report (July): will raise the counter-cyclical capital buffer rate to 2% in July 2023. Click here for more detail. Ukraine Latest: Turkey Renews Threat to Veto NATO Expansion Bunds Bull Steepen, ECB Hike Bets Pared After French PMI Revised UK Train Drivers Would Make Threatened Strikes National: Union FX DXY sets new 2022 best above 106.000 after taking time out to mark US Independence Day, reaches 106.24 before waning marginally. Euro slumps to fresh multi-year lows as EGBs rebound strongly and risk appetite evaporates; EUR/USD probes 1.0300, EUR/CHF sub-0.9950 and EUR/JPY below 140.00. Aussie underperforms irrespective of 50bp RBA rate hike as accompanying statement sounds less hawkish on inflation; AUD/USD under 0.6800 from close to 0.6900 overnight and AUD/NZD cross retreats through 1.1050. Pound down regardless of upgrades to final UK services and composite PMIs as Buck rallies broadly and BoE’s FSR flags material deterioration in global economic outlook, Cable beneath 1.2050 from circa 1.2125 peak. Yen holds up better than others amidst Greenback strength on risk and rate grounds; USD/JPY eyes support into 135.50 vs 136.00+ at the other extreme. Fixed Income Bonds on course for a turnaround Tuesday after marked retreat from pre-weekend peaks on Independence Day. Bunds back above 150.00 from 148.72 low and Friday's 151.65 high, Gilts reclaim 115.00+ status within 116.58-114.60 range and 10 year T-note above 119-00 between 119-20+/118-23 parameters. UK 2051 and German 2033 linker supply reasonably well received, but yields considerably higher. In commodities Crude benchmarks were fairly resilient to the broader risk tone, but have most recently succumbed to the pressure and are at the lower-end of a USD 3-4/bbl range. Reminder, the lack of settlement due to the US market holiday is causing some discrepancy between WTI and Brent, though they are directionally moving in tandem. UAE’s ADNOC set Murban crude OSP for August at USD 117.53/bbl vs prev. USD 109.68/bbl in July, according to Reuters. Norway's Lederne union said the strike in the Norwegian oil sector had begun, according to Reuters. Saudi Aramco has increased all oil prices for customers in August; sets Aug light crude OSP to Asia at +9.30/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average, according to Reuters sources; NW Europe set at +USD 5.30 vs. ICE Brent; US set at +USD 5.65 vs. ASCI. Russian Deputy Chair of the Security Council Medvedev says the Japanese proposal to cap Russian oil prices would lead to higher global prices, oil prices could increase to over USD 300-400/bbl, via Reuters. Chile’s Codelco copper output fell 6.3% Y/Y in May to 142.9k tonnes, while Chile’s Collahuasi mine copper output fell 15.4% to 49k tonnes and Chile’s Escondida copper output rose 26% to 106.9k tonnes, according to Cochilco cited by Reuters. Russian billionaire Potanin says he is ready to discuss a possible merger of Nornickel with Rusal, via Reuters citing RBC TV; UK sanctions on him do not target Nornickel, Co. is still working under pressure. Spot gold is impaired by the rampant USD action, pressure seen in base metals as well on such dynamics and LME copper now below 8k/T.   US Event Calendar 10:00: May -Less Transportation, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7% 10:00: May Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.8% 10:00: May Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5% 10:00: May Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.3% 10:00: May Factory Orders, est. 0.5%, prior 0.3% 10:00: May Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I can only apologise in advance for the next few weeks! The Global Institutional Investor Awards will open later this afternoon and not to put it too bluntly we’d like to do well. So if you value our research please vote if you can. More details to follow when the poll opens. It’s been a quieter 24 hours for markets thanks to the US holiday, but the market remains confused about how to price fixed income in an environment where a recession is coming at some point. We've seen a big yield sell-off to start the week even if equities have stabilised, with a fresh rise in energy prices only adding to concerns about how different economies (particularly in Europe) will fare this winter if Russia cuts off the flow of gas. Overnight the US 2s10s curve has inverted again, the RBA has hiked 50bps as expected and Chinese PMI data has massively beat expectations so a few things going on even in a quieter trading period. We’ll start with markets in Europe since they were open yesterday. The biggest story there was a sizeable selloff among sovereign bonds as they gave up some of their gains over the last couple of weeks. Yields on 10yr bunds were up +10.1bps, but they were one of the better performers given the risk-off tone and yields on 10yr OATs (+12.7bps) and BTPs (+15.8bps) saw even larger rises, which followed comments from Bundesbank president Nagel who said that it was “virtually impossible to establish for sure whether or not a widened spread is fundamentally justified”. Nevertheless, Nagel did not entirely rule out an anti-fragmentation instrument but said that this “can be justified only in exceptional circumstances and under narrowly-defined conditions.” This question of how the ECB will deal with a potential widening in spreads is set to come increasingly to the fore as they almost certainly embark on their first hiking cycle in over a decade this month. And yesterday we heard some further comments from ECB officials on that hiking cycle, with Estonia’s Muller pushing back against the calls from others to start with a 50bps hike, saying that it was appropriate to begin with a 25bps move in July, and then 50bps in September as they’ve signalled. In line with the rise in sovereign bond yields, overnight index swaps priced in a slightly more aggressive series of hikes from the ECB, with the rate implied by December up by +7.1 bps on the day. Whilst the ECB is set to hike rates, their life is being made significantly more difficult by the ongoing energy shock that’s creating increasingly stagflationary conditions. Unfortunately, there was more bad news on that front yesterday, with natural gas futures up by another +10.26% to €163 per megawatt-hour, which is their highest rate since early March and more than double their recent low in early June. Matters haven’t been helped by a planned strike in Norway that puts around 13% of Norway’s daily gas exports at risk, according to the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association, which comes ahead of next week’s scheduled maintenance of the Nord Stream pipeline, which will last from July 11-21. When it came to equities, the main European indices mostly managed to advance, although as mentioned at the top that was partly a catch-up to the late rally on Friday afternoon in the US, and the STOXX 600 was up +0.54% thanks to a strong performance amongst energy stocks. By contrast, futures on the S&P 500 were lower throughout European trading even if they have flipped higher this morning (futures +0.36%). One similarity between the US and Europe was a slightly more hawkish path for central bank rates being priced, with Fed funds futures taking the Dec-2022 implied rate up by +3.8 bps after last week’s declines. This fits with what Henry mentioned in his latest newsletter yesterday (link here), in which he points out that the recent repricing of the hiking cycle in a more dovish direction is inconsistent with the historic pattern whereby the Fed has always taken rates above inflation as they hike. This morning, yields on US 10yrs (+6.6bps) and 2yrs (+10.8bps) are catching up the global move after the holiday leaving 2s10s very slightly inverted as we go to press. Speaking of inflation, it was reported by Dow Jones yesterday that President Biden could ease some tariffs on Chinese imports soon, with the article saying that a decision could be announced this week. As discussed in the article and other media reports, this has apparently been a divisive issue inside the administration, since although their removal could help ease inflation, it would also give up leverage in obtaining concessions from China, so there’s geopolitical as well as economic factors at play here. Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning partly on the tariffs story above and partly on better data overall. Across the region, the Kospi (+1.13%) is leading gains followed by the Nikkei (+0.82%) and the Hang Seng (+0.41%). Bucking the trend are the mainland Chinese markets with the Shanghai Composite (-0.20%) and CSI (-0.95%) both slipping as I type, perhaps on less stimulus hopes after a big beat in the Caixin PMI (see below). Outside of Asia, US and European equities are set to follow the Asian trend with futures on the S&P 500 (+0.36%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.47%) and DAX (+0.60%) moving higher. Early morning data showed that Japan’s services activity accelerated at the fastest pace since October 2013 as the Jibun Bank services PMI advanced to 54.0 in June from 52.6 in May. Meanwhile, Japan’s real wages (-1.8% y/y) extended its decline in May, notching its biggest contraction in two years compared to an upwardly revised -1.7% decline in April. At the same time, cash earnings rose +1.0% y/y in May (vs +1.5% market consensus, and +1.3% in April), thus adding downside risk to a consumption driven rebound in 2Q22 GDP. Moving to China, growth in the nation’s services sector surprisingly beat as the Caixin services PMI jumped to 54.5 in June, its highest level in nearly a year from 41.4 in May as Covid curbs eased. Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s CPI rose +0.6% m/m in June (v/s +0.5% expected) and against a +0.7% increase in the prior month. As widely anticipated, we did see policy tightening by the RBA as the central bank raised its cash rate by 50bps to 1.35% as it moves to tame strengthening inflation. This is the third consecutive increase of the cash rate. The AUD/USD pair was little changed in an immediate reaction. There wasn’t a massive amount of data yesterday, although we did get German trade figures that showed the country had a monthly trade deficit in goods in May for the first time since 1991. That was thanks to higher import costs as a result of the recent commodity shocks, alongside disruptions to trade from factors including sanctions on Russia, which left the monthly deficit at €1.0bn. To the day ahead now, and data highlights include the global services and composite PMIs for June, as well as the ISM services index from the US. Otherwise, there’s French industrial production for May and US factory orders for May. From central banks, the BoE will be releasing their Financial Stability Report and we’ll also hear from the BoE’s Tenreyro. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/05/2022 - 08:03.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytJul 5th, 2022

Futures, Commodities Jump After China Cuts Quarantine

Futures, Commodities Jump After China Cuts Quarantine US stock futures rebounded from Monday's modest losses and traded near session highs after China reduced quarantine times for inbound travelers by half - to seven days of centralized quarantine and three days of health monitoring at home -  the biggest shift yet in a Covid-19 policy that has left the world’s second-largest economy isolated as it continues to try and eliminate the virus. The move, which fueled optimism about stronger economic growth and boosted appetite for both commodities and risk assets, sent S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 contracts higher by 0.6% each at 7:15 a.m. in New York, setting up heavyweight technology stocks for a rebound. Mining and energy shares led gains in Europe’s Stoxx 600 and an Asian equity index erased losses to climb for a fourth session. 10Y TSY yields extended their move higher rising to 3.25% or about +5bps on the session, while the dollar and bitcoin were flat, and oil and commodity-linked currencies strengthened. In premarket trading, the biggest mover was Kezar Life Sciences which soared 85% after reporting positive results for its lupus drug. On the other end, Robinhood shares fell 3.2%, paring a rally yesterday sparked by news that FTX is exploring whether to buy the company. In a statement, FTX head Sam Bankman-Fried said he is excited about the firm’s business prospects, but “there are no active M&A conversations with Robinhood." Here are some of the other most notable premarket movers" Playtika (PLTK US) shares rallied 11% in premarket trading after a report that private equity firm Joffre Capital agreed to acquire a majority stake in the gaming company from a Chinese investment group for $21 a share. Nike (NKE US) shares fell 2.3% in US premarket trading, with analysts reducing their price targets after the company gave a downbeat forecast for gross margin and said it was being cautious in its outlook for the China market. Spirit Airlines (SAVE US) shares rise as much as 5% in US premarket trading after JetBlue boosted its all-cash bid in response to an increased offer by rival suitor Frontier in the days before a crucial shareholder vote. Snowflake (SNOW US) rises 3.3% in US premarket trading after Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold, saying its valuation is now “back to reality” and offers a good entry point given the software firm’s long-term targets. Sutro Biopharma (STRO US) shares rise 34% in US premarket trading after the company and Astellas said they will collaborate to advance development of immunostimulatory antibody-drug conjugates, which are a modality for treating tumors and designed to boost anti-cancer activity. State Street (STT US) shares could be in focus after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to hold, while lowering EPS estimates and price targets across interest rate sensitive coverage of trust banks and online brokers. US bank stocks may be volatile during Tuesday’s trading session after the lenders announced a wave of dividend increases following last week’s successful stress test results. Stock rallies have proved fleeting this year as higher borrowing costs to fight inflation restrain economic activity in a range of nations. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde affirmed plans for an initial quarter-point increase in interest rates in July, but said policy makers are ready to step up action to tackle record inflation if warranted. Some analysts also argue still-bullish earnings estimates are too optimistic. Earnings revisions are a risk with the US economy set to slow next year, though China emerging from Covid strictures could act as a global buffer, according to Lorraine Tan, Morningstar director of equity research. “You got a US slowdown in 2023 in terms of growth, but you have China hopefully coming out of its lockdowns,” Tan said on Bloomberg Radio. In Europe, stocks are well bid with most European indexes up over 1%. Euro Stoxx 50 rose as much as 1.2% before drifting off the highs. Miners, energy and auto names outperform. The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources sub-index rises as much as 3.5% led by heavyweights Rio Tinto and Anglo American, as well as Polish copper producer KGHM and Finnish forestry companies Stora Enso and UPM- Kymmene. Iron ore and copper reversed losses after China eased its quarantine rules for new arrivals, while oil gained for a third session amid risks of supply disruptions. Iron ore in Singapore rose more than 4% after being firmly lower earlier in the session, while copper and other base metals also turned higher. Here are the biggest European movers: Luxury stocks climb boosted by an easing of Covid-19 quarantine rules in the key market of China. LVMH shares rise as much as 2.5%, Richemont +3.1%, Kering +3%, Moncler +3% Energy and mining stocks are the best-performing groups in the rising Stoxx Europe 600 index amid commodity gains. Shell shares rise as much as 3.8%, TotalEnergies +2.7%, BP +3.4%, Rio Tinto +4.6%, Glencore +3.9% Banco Santander shares rise as much as 1.8% after a report that the Spanish bank has hired Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs for its bid to buy Mexico’s Banamex. GN Store Nord shares gain as much as 4.2% after Nordea resumes coverage on the hearing devices company with a buy rating. Swedish Match shares rise as much as 4% as Philip Morris International’s offer document regarding its bid for the company has been approved and registered by the Swedish FSA. Wise shares decline as much as 15%, erasing earlier gains after the fintech firm reported full- year earnings. Citi said the results were “mixed,” with strong revenue growth being offset by lower profitability. UK water stocks decline as JPMorgan says it is turning cautious on the sector on the view that future regulated returns could surprise to the downside, in a note cutting Severn Trent to underweight. Severn Trent shares fall as much as 6%, Pennon -7.7%, United Utilities -2.3% Akzo Nobel falls as much as 4.5% in Amsterdam trading after the paint maker announced the appointment of former Sulzer leader Greg Poux-Guillaumeas chief executive officer, succeeding Thierry Vanlancker. Danske Bank shares fall as much as 4%, as JPMorgan cut its rating on the stock to underweight, saying in a note that risks related to Swedish property will likely create some “speed bumps” for Nordic banks though should be manageable. In the Bavarian Alps, limiting Russia’s profits from rising energy prices that fuel its war in Ukraine have been among the main topics of discussion at a Group of Seven summit. G-7 leaders agreed that they want ministers to urgently discuss and evaluate how the prices of Russian oil and gas can be curbed. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks erased earlier losses as China’s move to ease quarantine rules for inbound travelers bolstered sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6% after falling by a similar magnitude. The benchmark is set for a fourth day of gains, led by the energy and utilities sectors. BHP and Toyota contributed the most to the gauge’s advance, while China’s technology firms were among the biggest losers as a plan by Tencent’s major backer to further cut its stake fueled concern of more profit-taking following a strong rally.   A move by Beijing to cut quarantine times for inbound travelers by half is helping cement gains which have made Chinese shares the world’s best-performing major equity market this month. The nation’s stocks are approaching a bull market even as their recent rise pushes them to overbought levels. Still, the threat of a sharp slowdown in the world’s largest economy may pose a threat to the outlook. “US recession risk is still there and I think that’ll obviously have impact on global sectors,” Lorraine Tan, director of equity research at Morningstar, said on Bloomberg TV. “Even if we do get some China recovery in 2023, which could be a buffer for this region, it’s not going to offset the US or global recession.”  Most stock benchmarks in the region finished higher following China’s move to ease its travel rules. Main equity measures in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia rose while those in Taiwan and India fell. Overall, Asian stocks are on course to complete a monthly decline of about 4%.    Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China pledged to keep monetary policy supportive to help the nation’s economy. It signaled that stimulus would likely focus on boosting credit rather than lowering interest rates. Japanese stocks gained as investors adjusted positions heading into the end of the quarter.  The Topix Index rose 1.1% to 1,907.38 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.7% to 27,049.47. Toyota Motor contributed most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.2%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,736 rose and 374 fell, while 60 were unchanged. “As the end of the April-June quarter approaches, there is a tendency for institutional investors to rebalance,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley. “It will be easier to buy into cheap stocks, which is a factor that will support the market in terms of supply and demand.” India’s benchmark stock gauge ended flat after trading lower for most of the session as investors booked some profits after a three-day rally.  The S&P BSE Sensex closed little changed at 53,177.45 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index gained 0.1%.  Six of the the 19 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. dropped, led by consumer durables companies, while oil & gas firms were top performers.  ICICI Bank was among the prominent decliners on the Sensex, falling 1%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 17 rose and 13 fell. In rates, fixed income sold off as treasuries remained under pressure with the 10Y yield rising as high as 3.26%, following steeper declines for euro-zone and UK bond markets for second straight day and after two ugly US auctions on Monday. Yields across the curve are higher by 2bp-5bp led by the 7-year ahead of the $40 billion auction. In Europe, several 10-year yields are 10bp higher on the day after comments by an ECB official spurred money markets to price in more policy tightening. WI 7Y yield at around 3.32% exceeds 7-year auction stops since March 2010 and compares with 2.777% last month. Monday’s 5-year auction drew a yield more than 3bp higher than its yield in pre-auction trading just before the bidding deadline, a sign dealers underestimated demand. Traders attributed the poor results to factors including short base eroded by last week’s rally, recently elevated market volatility discouraging market-making, and sub-par participation during what is a popular vacation week in the US. Focal points for US session include 7-year note auction at 1pm ET; a 5-year auction Monday produced notably weak demand metrics. The belly of the German curve underperformed as markets focus  on hawkish comments from ECB officials: 5y bobl yields rose 10 bps near 1.46%, red pack euribors dropped 10-13 ticks and ECB-dated OIS rates priced in 163 basis points of tightening by year end. In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index is near flat as the greenback reversed earlier losses versus all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen while commodity currencies were the best performers. The euro rose above $1.06 before paring gains after ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said the central bank should consider a first rate hike of more than a quarter-point if there are signs that high inflation readings are feeding expectations. Money markets ECB raised tightening wagers after his remarks. ECB President Lagarde later affirmed plans for an initial quarter-point increase in interest rates in July but said policy makers are ready to step up action to tackle record inflation if warranted. The ECB is likely to drain cash from the banking system to offset any bond purchases made to restrain borrowing costs for indebted euro-area members, Reuters reported, citing two sources it didn’t identify. Elsewhere, the pound drifted against the dollar and euro after underperforming Monday, with focus on quarter-end flows, lingering Brexit risks and the UK economic outlook. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon due to speak later on how she plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence by the end of next year. The yen gave up an Asia session gain versus the dollar as US equity futures reversed losses. The Australian dollar rose after China cut its mandatory quarantine period to 10 days from three weeks for inbound visitors in its latest Covid-19 guidance. JPY was the weakest in G-10, drifting below 136 to the USD. In commodities, oil rose for a third day with global output threats compounding already red-hot markets for physical supplies and as broader financial sentiment improved. Brent crude breached $117 a barrel on Tuesday, but some of the most notable moves in recent days have been in more specialist market gauges. A contract known as the Dated-to-Frontline swap -- an indicator of the strength in the key North Sea market underpinning much of the world’s crude pricing -- hit a record of more than $5 a barrel. The rally comes amid growing supply outages in Libya and Ecuador, exacerbating ongoing market tightness. Oil prices also rose Tuesday as broader sentiment was boosted by China’s move to cut in half the time new arrivals must spend in isolation, the biggest shift yet in its pandemic policy. Meanwhile, the G-7 tasked ministers to urgently discuss an oil price cap on Russia.  Finally, the prospect of additional supply from two of OPEC’s key producers also looks limited. On Monday Reuters reported that French President Emmanuel Macron told his US counterpart Joe Biden that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are already pumping almost as much as they can. In the battered metals space, LME nickel rose 2.7%, outperforming peers and leading broad-based gains in the base-metals complex. Spot gold rises roughly $3 to trade near $1,826/oz Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include the FHFA house price index for April, the advance goods trade balance and preliminary wholesale inventories for May, as well as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for June and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Lane, Elderson and Panetta, the Fed’s Daly, and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe. Finally, NATO leaders will be meeting in Madrid. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 3,922.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 417.65 MXAP up 0.4% to 162.36 MXAPJ up 0.4% to 539.85 Nikkei up 0.7% to 27,049.47 Topix up 1.1% to 1,907.38 Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 22,418.97 Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,409.21 Sensex down 0.3% to 52,990.39 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 6,763.64 Kospi up 0.8% to 2,422.09 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.62% Euro little changed at $1.0587 Brent Futures up 1.4% to $116.65/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,828.78 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.89 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg In Tokyo’s financial circles, the trade is known as the widow- maker. The bet is simple: that the Bank of Japan, under growing pressure to stabilize the yen as it sinks to a 24-year low, will have to abandon its 0.25% cap on benchmark bond yields and let them soar, just as they already have in the US, Canada, Europe and across much of the developing world Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco may leave his post in October, paving the way for the appointment of a high profile executive close to Premier Mario Draghi, daily Il Foglio reported NATO is set to label China a “systemic challenge” when it outlines its new policy guidelines this week, while also highlighting Beijing’s deepening partnership with Russia, according to people familiar with the matter The PBOC pledged to keep monetary policy supportive to aid the economy’s recovery, while signaling that stimulus would likely focus on boosting credit rather than lowering interest rates A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mixed with the region partially shrugging off the lacklustre handover from the US. ASX 200 was kept afloat with energy leading the gains amongst the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with upside capped by resistance above the 27K level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured amid weakness in tech and lingering default concerns as Sunac plans discussions on extending a CNY bond and with Evergrande facing a wind-up petition. Top Asian News China is to cut quarantine time for international travellers, according to state media cited by Reuters. Shanghai Disneyland (DIS) will reopen on June 30th, according to Reuters. PBoC injected CNY 110bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 100bln net daily injection. China's state planner official said China faces new challenges in stabilising jobs and prices due to COVID and risks from the Ukraine crisis, while the NDRC added they will not resort to flood-like stimulus but will roll out tools in its policy reserve in a timely way to cope with challenges, according to Reuters. China's state planner NDRC says China is to cut gasoline and diesel retail prices by CNY 320/tonne and CNY 310/tonne respectively from June 29th. BoJ may have been saddled with as much as JPY 600bln in unrealised losses on its JGB holdings earlier this month, as a widening gap between domestic and overseas monetary policy pushed yields higher and prices lower, according to Nikkei. European bourses are firmer as sentiment picked up heading into the cash open amid encouraging Chinese COVID headlines. Sectors are mostly in the green with no clear theme. Base metals and Energy reside as the current winners and commodities feel a boost from China’s COVID updates. Stateside, US equity futures saw a leg higher in tandem with global counterparts, with the RTY narrowly outperforming. Twitter (TWTR) in recent weeks provided Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk with historical tweet data and access to its so-called fire hose of tweets, according to WSJ sources. Top European News UK lawmakers voted 295-221 to support the Northern Ireland Protocol bill in the first of many parliamentary tests it will face during the months ahead, according to Reuters. Scotland's First Minister Sturgeon will set out a plan today for holding a second Scottish Independence Referendum, according to BBC News. ECB’s Kazaks Says Worth Looking at Larger Rate Hike in July G-7 Latest: Leaders Want Urgent Evaluation of Energy Price Caps Ex- UBS Staffer Wants Payout for Exposing $10 Billion Swiss Stash SocGen Blames Clifford Chance in $483 Million Gold Suit GSK’s £40 Billion Consumer Arm Picks Citi, UBS as Brokers Russian Industry Faces Code Crisis as Critical Software Pulled ECB ECB's Lagarde said inflation in the euro area is undesirably high and it is projected to stay that way for some time to comeFragmentation tool, via the ECB. ECB's Kazaks said 25bps in July and 50bps in September is the base case, via Bloomberg TV. Kazaks said it is worth looking at a 50bps hike in July and front-loading hikes might be reasonable. Fragmentation risks should not stand in the way of monetary policy normalisation. If necessary, the ECB will come up with tools to address fragmentation. ECB's Wunsch said he is comfortable with a 50bps hike in September; adds that 200bps of hikes are needed relatively fast, and anti-fragmentation tool should have no limits if market moves are unwarranted, via Reuters. Bank of Italy said Governor Visco's resignation is not on the table, according to a spokesperson cited by Reuters. Fixed Income Bond reversal continues amidst buoyant risk sentiment, hawkish ECB commentary and supply. Bunds lose two more big figures between 146.80 peak and 144.85 trough, Gilts down to 112.06 from 112.86 at best and 10 year T-note retreats within 117-01/116-14 range FX DXY regroups on spot month end as yields rally and rebalancing factors offer support - index within 103.750-104.020 range vs Monday's 103.660 low. Euro continues to encounter resistance above 1.0600 via 55 DMA (1.0614 today); Yen undermined by latest bond retreat and renewed risk appetite - Usd/Jpy eyes 136.00 from low 135.00 area and close to 134.50 yesterday. Aussie breaches technical and psychological resistance with encouragement from China lifting or easing more Covid restrictions - Aud/Usd through 10 DMA at 0.6954. Loonie and Norwegian Krona boosted by firm rebound in oil as France fans supply concerns due to limited Saudi and UAE production capacity - Usd/Cad sub-1.2850 and Eur/Nok under 10.3500. Yuan receives another PBoC liquidity boost to compliment positive developments on the pandemic front, but Rand hampered by latest power cut warning issued by SA’s Eskom Commodities WTI and Brent futures were bolstered in early European hours amid encouragement seen from China's loosening of COVID restrictions. Spot gold is uneventful, around USD 1,825/oz in what has been a sideways session for the bullion since the reopening overnight. Base metals are posting broad gains across the complex - with LME copper back above USD 8,500/t amid China-related optimism. US Event Calendar 08:30: May Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$105b, prior -$105.9b, revised -$106.7b 08:30: May Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 2.1%, prior 2.2% May Retail Inventories MoM, est. 1.6%, prior 0.7% 09:00: April S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 21.15%, prior 21.17% 09:00: April S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. 1.95%, prior 2.42% 09:00: April FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 1.4%, prior 1.5% 10:00: June Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 100.0, prior 106.4 Conf. Board Expectations, prior 77.5; Present Situation, prior 149.6 10:00: June Richmond Fed Index, est. -5, prior -9 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap It's been a landmark night in our household as last night was the first time the 4-year-old twins slept without night nappies. So my task this morning after I send this to the publishers is to leave for the office before they all wake up so that any accidents are not my responsibility. Its hopefully the end of a near 7-year stretch of nappies being constantly around in their many different guises and states of unpleasantness. Maybe give it another 30-40 years and they'll be back. Talking of unpleasantness, as we near the end of what’s generally been an awful H1 for markets, yesterday saw the relief rally from last week stall out, with another bond selloff and an equity performance that fluctuated between gains and losses before the S&P 500 (-0.30%) ended in negative territory. In terms of the specific moves, sovereign bonds lost ground on both sides of the Atlantic, with yields on 10yr Treasuries up by +7.0bps following their -9.6bps decline from the previous week. That advance was led by real rates (+9.6bps), which look to have been supported by some decent second-tier data releases from the US during May yesterday. The preliminary reading for US durable goods orders surprised on the upside with a +0.7% gain (vs. +0.1% expected). Core capital goods orders also surprised on the upside with a +0.8% advance (vs. +0.2% expected). And pending home sales were unexpectedly up by +0.7% (vs. -4.0% expected). Collectively that gave investors a bit more confidence that growth was still in decent shape last month, which is something that will also offer the Fed more space to continue their campaign of rate hikes into H2. This morning 10yr USTs yields have eased -2.45 bps to 3.17% while 2yr yields (-4 bps) have also moved lower to 3.08%, as we go to press. Staying at the front end, when it comes to those rate hikes, if you look at Fed funds futures they show that investors are still only expecting them to continue for another 9 months, with the peak rate in March or April 2023 before markets are pricing in at least a full 25bps rate cut by end-2023 from that point. I pointed out in my chart of the day yesterday (link here) that the median time historically from the last hike of the cycle to the first cut was only 4 months, and last time it was only 7 months between the final hike in December 2018 and the next cut in July 2019. So it wouldn’t be historically unusual if Fed funds did follow that pattern whether that fits my view or not. Over in Europe yesterday there was an even more aggressive rise in yields, with those on 10yr bunds (+10.9bps), OATs (+11.0bps) and BTPs (+9.1bps) all rising on the day as they bounced back from their even larger declines over the previous week. That came as investors pared back their bets on a more dovish ECB that they’d made following the more negative tone last week, and the rate priced in by the December ECB meeting rose by +8.5bps on the day. For equities, the major indices generally fluctuated between gains and losses through the day. The S&P 500 followed that pattern and ultimately fell -0.30%, which follows its best daily performance in over 2 years on Friday Quarter-end rebalancing flows seem set to drive markets back-and-forth price this week. Even with the decline yesterday, the index is +6.36% higher since its closing low less than a couple of weeks ago. And over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.52%) posted a decent advance, although that masked regional divergences, including losses for the CAC 40 (-0.43%) and the FTSE MIB (-0.86%). Energy stocks strongly outperformed in the index, supported by a further rise in oil prices that left both Brent crude (+1.74%) and WTI (+1.81%) higher on the day. G7 ministers reportedly agreed to explore a cap on Russian gas and oil exports, with the official mandate expected to be announced today, but it would take time for any mechanism to be developed. The impact on global oil supply is not clear: if Russia retaliates supply could go down, if this enables other third parties to import more Russian oil supply could go up. Elsewhere, political unrest in Libya and Ecuador could simultaneously hit oil supply. In early Asian trading, oil prices continue to move higher, with Brent futures up +1.13% at $116.39/bbl and WTI futures gaining +1% to just above the $110/bbl level. Asian equity markets are struggling a bit this morning. The Hang Seng (-1.00%) is the largest underperformer amid a weakening in Chinese tech stocks whilst the Nikkei (-0.15%), Shanghai Composite (-0.15%) and CSI (-0.19%) are trading in negative territory in early trade. Elsewhere, the Kospi (-0.05%) is just below the flatline. US stock futures are slipping with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.12%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.18%) both slightly lower. In central bank news, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Yi Gang pledged to provide additional monetary support to the economy to recover from Covid outbreaks and lockdowns and other stresses. In a rare interview conducted in English, the central bank chief did caution though that the real interest rate is low thereby indicating limited room for large-scale monetary easing. Turning to geopolitical developments, the G7 summit continued in Germany yesterday, and in a statement it said they would “further intensify our economic measures against Russia”. Separately, NATO announced that it will increase the number of high readiness forces to over 300,000, with the alliance’s leaders set to gather in Madrid from today. And we’re also expecting a new round of nuclear talks with Iran to take place at some point this week, something Henry mentioned in his latest Mapping Markets out yesterday (link here), which if successful could in time pave the way for Iranian oil to return to the global market. Finally, whilst there were some decent May data releases from the US, the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing activity index for June fell to a 2-year low of -17.7 (vs. -6.5 expected). To the day ahead now, and data releases include Germany’s GfK consumer confidence for July, French consumer confidence for June, whilst in the US there’s the FHFA house price index for April, the advance goods trade balance and preliminary wholesale inventories for May, as well as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for June and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Lane, Elderson and Panetta, the Fed’s Daly, and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe. Finally, NATO leaders will be meeting in Madrid. Tyler Durden Tue, 06/28/2022 - 08:00.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 28th, 2022

Futures, Global Markets Rally, Bonds Slide As Traders Turn More Bullish

Futures, Global Markets Rally, Bonds Slide As Traders Turn More Bullish Following the best week for stocks in one month, global stocks extended gains on Monday on continued easing of fears for a hawkish Fed; US futures rose, with the Nasdaq 100 advancing 0.5% as by tech giants Amazon, Apple and Microsoft all rose in premarket trading. Tech shares also boosted indexes in Europe and Asia. Treasuries slipped, pushing the rate on the US 10-year note to 3.17%. Yields have retreated from June highs on growth worries, but whether that marks the end of the Treasury bear market is a live debate. The dollar fluctuated while oil and bitcoin rose. In the US premarket, major US technology and internet stocks were higher, poised to extend gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 closed up 7.5% last week, its best week since March. Among notable movers: Apple +0.6%, Microsoft +0.6%, Amazon.com +1%, Meta +0.8%, Nvidia +1.6% in premarket trading. Other notable premarket movers include: JD.com (JD US) is among the top performers in US-listed Chinese stocks, rising 5% in premarket trading, after tech investor Prosus disposed of its stake in JD.com for about $3.67 billion. Coinbase (COIN US) shares fall 4% in premarket trading as the stock was downgraded to sell from neutral, with a joint Street-low price target of $45 at Goldman Sachs, which cited the “continued downdraft” in crypto prices and drop in industry activity levels. Robinhood (HOOD US) shares rise 3.9% in premarket trading as Goldman Sachs analyst William Nance raised the recommendation on the stock to neutral from sell Epizyme (EPZM US) jumps 64% to $1.56 in US premarket trading after Ipsen announced the acquisition of the US biotech firm for $1.45/share in cash plus a contingent value right of $1/share. Selective Insurance Group (SIGI US) shares may be in focus after Morgan Stanley initiated an overweight rating on the stock, citing a favorable business model that will help the company’s margin to outperform peers. Keep an eye on WEC Energy Group (WEC US) as KeyBanc Capital Markets raised the recommendation on the stock to overweight from sector weight, citing “valuation dislocations” triggered by the recent industry volatility. As Goldman traders speculated over the weekend, Friday's massive Russell rebalance may have helped flush out any leftover liquidation trades, while the upcoming month- and quarter-end portfolio rebalancing by pensions could boost stocks by as much as 7% this week according to JPM's Marko Kolanovic. Further boosting bullish sentiment - if only temporarily - one of Wall Street’s biggest bears sees the rally in US stocks extending, prior to the selloff recommencing. Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson say the S&P 500 Index may climb another 5% to 7%, before resuming losses. Meanwhile, investors are also parsing incoming data to work out if the highest inflation in a generation is close to topping out as that will give the Fed latitude to ease up on sharp interest-rate hikes, something the market last week aggressively repriced. A more troubling scenario is of lasting price pressures and tighter policy even as the global economy falters. “There’s a feeling that things aren’t as bad as we thought they were going to be,” Carol Pepper, founder of Pepper International, said on Bloomberg Radio. She added “there’s a hope that perhaps we’ve oversold, perhaps there’s not going to be a recession.” Traders are also monitoring a summit of the Group of Seven leaders, who plan to commit to indefinite support for Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion. The G-7 in addition is weighing a price cap on Russian oil. As reported yesterday, the US, UK, Japan and Canada also plan to announce a ban on new gold imports from Russia during the G-7 summit. Prices for the precious metal naturally rose. European equities trade off session highs as an earlier rally in Asian tech stocks buoys sentiment. Miners, tech and autos are the strongest performing sectors in Europe. Euro Stoxx 50 rallies 1%. DAX outperforms peers, adding 1.2%, FTSE MIB lags, dropping 0.2%.  Among notable European stock moves, Prosus NV soared on plans to sell more of its $134 billion stake in Chinese internet giant Tencent Holdings Ltd. to finance a buyback program. Mediobanca SpA fell after the death of Italian entrepreneur Leonardo Del Vecchio, the single largest investor in the bank.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Prosus shares surge as much as 17% in Amsterdam after the tech investor said it will sell down its holding in Tencent to finance an open-ended share buyback program, which could help close the gap between the firm’s market value and the value of the Tencent stake, according to analysts. Mining stocks lead gains in the Stoxx 600 Index on Monday as iron ore and base metals recover ground amid signs of improvement in China’s economy. Rio Tinto shares rise as much as 4.4%, Anglo American +4.6%, Glencore +4.2% Nordex shares jump as much as 12% after the firm announced a EU139.2m cash injection from Acciona in a bid to increase liquidity and strengthen its balance sheet to shield itself against the risks of short term headwinds in the industry. Kion shares rise as much as 7.7% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from underweight, saying that the structural case for warehouse and forklift companies remains intact even amid a de-rating for the stocks. Lundbeck soars as much as 15% after the Danish pharmaceutical company reported positive data in a clinical study of agitation in patients with Alzheimer’s dementia. Ocado shares fall as much as 3.1% after the stock was cut to neutral from outperform and PT slashed to 960p from 1,600p at Credit Suisse, with the broker saying new disclosures from the online grocer indicate that its prior assumptions were “too optimistic.” Ipsen shares drop as much as 5.1% after the pharmaceutical company announced the acquisition of US biotech Epizyme for $1.45/share in cash plus a contingent value right of $1/share. Analyst had mixed reactions to the deal. Mediobanca shares fall as much as 4.4% in Milan after news that Italian entrepreneur Leonardo Del Vecchio, the single largest investor in the bank with a stake of about 19.4%, has died. Wise shares drop as much as 5.3% after the money transfer firm said its CEO is facing a probe by UK regulators. Tecnicas Reunidas shares tumble as much as 17% after the company said it began arbitrage to recover excess costs in a dispute with the Sonatrach-Neptune Energy consortium over a contract for the Touat Gaz Plant in Algeria. Elsewhere, Russia defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced after battered technology shares rebounded as easing recession fears underpinned investor sentiment.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 2.1%, its biggest intraday gain this month, as chip and internet companies including TSMC and Alibaba climbed. Tech-heavy markets such as Taiwan and South Korea extended gains made Friday, while an index of Asian tech stocks rallied for a second straight session after dropping to the lowest since September 2020.  Asian equities are bouncing back from a two-year low, as US Treasury yields retreat. Almost all markets in the region rose, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index leading gains and China’s benchmark coming closer to a bull market as Shanghai’s leader declared victory in defending the financial hub against Covid. A Chinese tech index in Hong Kong advanced 4.7%. Still, the rally in technology shares may be short-lived, as global demand for consumer electronics remains fragile.  “Korea and Taiwan have high leverage to tech products, and we’ve seen a lot of that come under pressure so the end demand has slowed down,” Ray Sharma-Ong, investment director at Abrdn Asia, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “We expect continued outflows post this relief rally.” Japanese equities climbed as the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials buoyed sentiment on the economy and a reading on US inflation expectations eased.  The Topix Index rose 1.1% to 1,887.42 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 1.4% to 26,871.27. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.3%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,490 rose and 568 fell, while 112 were unchanged. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.9% to close at 6,706, the benchmark’s biggest daily gain since Jan. 28, as investors in Asia assessed whether inflation is bottoming and recession can be averted. The index’s biggest gains were seen in the financial, energy and tech sectors. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index closed 1.7% higher at 10,997.92, the benchmark’s best day since March 1 Emerging-market stocks climbed to the highest in more than a week as China’s recovery from its virus-induced slump propels the Asian nation’s equities toward a bull market. Technology stocks led emerging-market equity gains, with China’s economy showing some improvement in June amid a further easing of pandemic curbs in Shanghai. Chinese shares look to be the best home for fresh money in Asia amid a tough investment environment, according to abrdn plc’s regional chairman Hugh Young. China plans to extend the yuan’s trading hours as it seeks to increase global investor participation in onshore currency trading as part of its internationalization push. In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index fell 0.2% as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Australian dollar.  AUD and CHF are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, SEK and GBP outperform. The volatility term structures for the Group-of-4 currencies focus on the upcoming central bank meetings as there is little demand for long gamma in the front-end. The euro advanced, nearing $1.06 and European bonds fell broadly, with the exeption of Greece and Sweden, as focus turns to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech. Sterling rose for a second day, supported by a rally in global stocks that is limiting demand for the dollar. Gilts extended their slide across the curve, while money markets raised BOE tightening bets as haven- buying was unwound amid equity advances. In rates, Treasuries are weaker amid a selloff in core European rates, which extended losses after EU’s sale of EU2.5b four-year bonds. US yields are cheaper by nearly 4bp at long end, steepening 2s10s by ~2.4bp, 5s30s by ~1bp on the day; 10-year is up 3.6bp at ~3.17% with bunds and gilts lagging by additional 8bp and 5bp in the sector.  As Bloomberg notes, the broad risk-asset rally puts added cheapening pressure on Treasury yields with S&P 500 futures and Estoxx50 rising led by big gains for Asia stocks. Two coupon auctions slated for Monday may also weigh: Monday’s auctions include $46b 2- year at 11:30am ET and $47b 5-year notes at 1pm. The WI 2-year yield near 3.07% (vs 2.519% last month) is above auction stops since 2007; WI 5Y near 3.22% (vs 2.736% in May) exceeds results since 2008. IG dollar issuance expectations for the week are around $15b, although remain highly dependent on market conditions. The long- end of the curve may benefit this week from anticipated month- end demand; Bloomberg Indices estimated a 0.07yr Treasury index duration extension for July 1, slightly below 12-month average. In Europe, Gilts underperform Treasuries and bunds, cheaper by about 5-6bps at the long end. In commodities, industrial metals rebounded, while oil rose. Copper steadied and most other base metals rebounded after their worst week in a year as China’s economy showed signs of recovering and Goldman Sachs said global supplies were still constrained. Oil fluctuated near $107 a barrel in New York as investors monitored developments from the gathering of Group of Seven leaders; G7 leaders met to decide on a Russian oil price cap ahead of Iranian nuclear talks and on the week of the OPEC+ meeting. French CGT unions will participate in strikes at LNG terminals and gas storage facilities this week; strike in the energy sector on June 28th. Most base metals trade in the green; LME tin rises 6.8%, outperforming peers. LME zinc lags, dropping 0.9%. Spot gold maintains gains, adding ~$13 to trade near $1,840/oz. as some G-7 nations plan to announce ban on new gold imports from Russia Looking at today's US calendar, we get the May durable goods orders, capital goods orders, pending home sales, and June Dallas Fed manufacturing index. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 3,944.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 417.68 MXAP up 1.6% to 161.83 MXAPJ up 1.8% to 538.51 Nikkei up 1.4% to 26,871.27 Topix up 1.1% to 1,887.42 Hang Seng Index up 2.4% to 22,229.52 Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,379.19 Sensex up 1.2% to 53,368.36 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.9% to 6,705.95 Kospi up 1.5% to 2,401.92 Brent Futures up 0.2% to $113.31/bbl Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,840.40 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.29% to 103.88 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.49% Euro up 0.3% to $1.0580 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg ECB policy makers gather on a Portuguese hillside on Monday with the sinking feeling that their rush to tackle the inflation shock they failed to forecast risks both a recession and echoes of the euro area’s sovereign debt crisis It was while sitting apparently alone in a London hotel basement that Christine Lagarde engineered a fix to the euro zone’s most alarming debt turmoil since the pandemic struck The ECB is pushing back its policy decisions and the timing of the subsequent press conferences by 30 minutes as of July The US, UK, Japan and Canada plan to announce a ban on new gold imports from Russia during a summit of Group of Seven leaders that’s getting underway Sunday. Prices of the precious metal climbed Monday President Joe Biden rebooted his effort to counter China’s flagship trade-and- infrastructure initiative after an earlier campaign faltered, enlisting the support of Group of Seven leaders at their summit in Germany China’s economy showed some improvement in June as Covid restrictions were gradually eased, although the recovery remains muted China plans to extend the yuan’s trading hours as it seeks to increase global investor participation in onshore currency trading as part of its internationalization push Russia defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century, the culmination of ever-tougher Western sanctions that shut down payment routes to overseas creditors The world economy risks entering a new era of high inflation which central banks need to keep in check, the Bank for International Settlements said Signs of distress flashing in bond markets suggest the world’s poorest nations are set to see a wave of debt restructurings. But a growing cohort of investors say that’s a buying opportunity A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were higher across the board as the region took impetus from last Friday's firm gains on Wall St heading closer into month-end. ASX 200 enjoyed broad gains across its sectors although gold miners lagged as Evolution Mining shares dropped by more than 20% due to a cut in its FY output guidance. Nikkei 225 was lifted after the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions reiterated that they must maintain easy policy and with Tepco among the biggest gainers on tight electricity supply amid the hot weather. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the upbeat mood as Hong Kong benefitted from a rampant tech sector and with the mainland encouraged by further easing of restrictions in Shanghai and Beijing, while the PBoC also upped its liquidity efforts with a CNY 100bln injection. Top Asian News Beijing will permit schools to resume in-class teaching as soon as Monday, ending one of the last major curbs in the capital, according to Bloomberg. Shanghai is to gradually resume dining-in at restaurants from June 29th, according to an official cited by Reuters. PBoC injected CNY 100bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 90bln net injection, according to Reuters. China requested that banks make preparations for longer trading hours for the CNY, with trading in the onshore CNY potentially to extend until 03:00 local time the following day (20:00BST/15:00CDT), according to Bloomberg. BoJ Summary of Opinions from the June meeting stated the BoJ must maintain easy policy and keep a close eye out on the market and FX impact on the economy and prices. It also noted the number of goods seeing prices rise is increasing due to higher raw material costs and a weak yen but it is appropriate to keep easy policy as inflation is not driven by a positive economic cycle. Furthermore, it said maintaining ultra-easy policy is effective in sustaining a rise in wages and that a sharp fall in Yen would hurt the economy and heighten uncertainty. Japanese government issued power shortage warnings for Tuesday, for a second straight day, according to Reuters. Japan has proposed removing reference to the goal of 50% zero-emission vehicles by 2030; wants less concrete target, according to a draft cited by Reuters. BoJ's holding of JGBs has reportedly topped 50% of its total, according to Nikkei. European bourses are kicking off the week on the front-foot as global equities see tailwinds from Wall Street’s bounce on Friday. Sectors in Europe are mostly positive – but Utilities and Insurance are subdued, with the overall picture being a cyclical one. Stateside, US equity futures track sentiment higher – with the NQ the current outperformer vs the ES, YM, and RTY. Top European News ECB says as of the July meeting, the policy decisions will be released at 14:15CET and presser at 14:45CET, according to Reuters. ECB’s Pivot Toward Rate Hikes Feeds Fears of New Bond Crisis; ECB to Announce Rate Decisions 30 Minutes Later From July EU Confronts Low Gas Storage Risk in Test of Unity on Russia Gas Jumps as Europe Struggles to Fill Russian Gap UK’s Battered Economy Is Sliding Toward a Breaking Point FX Greenback continues to gravitate as risk sentiment improves, but could get a month end boost given models indicating broad rebalancing requirement - DXY pivots 104.000 within 104.120-103.790 range just shy of last week's low. Yen benefits from all round fix buying ahead of final trading day of June and Q2 on Thursday - Usd/Jpy not far from 134.50 at one stage overnight alongside declined in Yen crosses. Pound perks up as IMM spec accounts trim short positions again and Euro tests technical resistance ahead of 1.0600 vs Buck amidst firmer rebound in EGB yields - Cable probes 1.2300 at best, Eur/Usd touches 21 DMA at 1.0591. Aussie lags on Aud/Nzd headwinds, but Loonie pares losses in tandem with oil - Aud/Usd sub-0.6950, cross under 1.1000, Nzd/Usd hovering over 0.6300 and Usd/Cad back below 1.2900. Yuan underpinned by net PBoC liquidity injection and easing of Covid restrictions in China - Usd/Cnh and Usd/Cny both beneath 6.6900. Lira knee jerks higher after Turkey cuts credit to firms with more than Try 15 mn FX cash assets - Usd/Try down to 16.1040 or so before rebound towards 16.8900. Fixed Income Debt futures unwind more recovery gains with EGBs leading the way. Bunds retreat towards 146.50 vs 149.00 at one stage last Friday. Gilts closer to 113.00 than 114.00 and 10 year T-note near the base of 116-31/117-13 overnight range. US durable goods data ahead and a double dose of issuance comprising Usd 46 bn 2 year and Usd 47 bn 5 year auctions. Commodities WTI and Brent futures consolidate with modest intraday losses as G7 leaders meet to decide on a Russian oil price cap ahead of Iranian nuclear talks and on the week of the OPEC+ meeting. French CGT unions will participate in strikes at LNG terminals and gas storage facilities this week; strike in the energy sector on June 28th. Spot gold piggy-backs off the softer Dollar – with the yellow metal currently eyeing its 21 DMA (1,841.60/oz) and 200 DMA (1,845.20/oz) to the upside Base metals are largely rebounding following the recent rout – also aided by the Buck. US Event Calendar 08:30: May Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%; -Less Transportation, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4% 08:30: May Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4% 08:30: May Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8% 10:00: May Pending Home Sales YoY, prior -11.5% 10:00: May Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. -3.9%, prior -3.9% 10:30: June Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -6.5, prior -7.3 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap This morning we are launching our monthly survey which hopefully comes at an opportune time to assess what you all think about recession risk, whether the next big move in markets will be up or down, whether the BoJ will be able to hold the line on YCC, whether your market view includes the risk of Russian gas being cut off from Europe, and whether you think negative rates will be seen again in the next decade after the ECB likely moves away from it by September. There are a couple of other repeat questions to answer. It should take 2-3 minutes, is all anonymous, with answers likely Thursday morning. The link is here and all help gratefully received. A reminder that my chart book was out last week with lots of charts on one of the worst H1s in history, recession risks and lots more. See here for more. Without having a blockbuster event to look forward to this week there are plenty of things to keep us occupied in what are highly uncertain times. Perhaps the ECB's Forum on Central Banking in Sintra will be the key event to watch, with a policy panel on Wednesday which will bring together Chair Powell, President Lagarde and Governor Bailey together the likely highlight. Staying in Europe, all eyes will be on the June CPI numbers released for Germany (Wednesday), France (Thursday) and Italy and the Eurozone on Friday. Consensus expectations don’t suggest we’re yet at peak headline inflation with CPI expected to pick up a few tenths YoY this week. With commodity prices fading sharply in June the hope is that we will be near the top soon. In fact, our US economists put out an inflationary chart book last week that suggested that the peak will be in September (9.1% headline and 6.3% core). The problem is that even if headline dips because of energy, core won’t necessarily fall as quickly with wages and second round effects in full force. We had a small indicator of that last week as our economists also pointed out that the recent acceleration in US hospital workers’ wage growth from around 2.5% to almost 5% should serve to add an additional 50bps to core PCE inflation next year (link here). On Thursday, we’ll get the latest reading of the US core PCE deflator within the personal income and spending data. Core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure so this and the healthcare news is important. Staying with US data, we have a fair amount to look forward to with the all important ISM on Friday (53.2 expected vs 56.1 last month). We'll also see the Chicago PMI on Thursday and regional Fed's manufacturing indices throughout the week. Durable goods orders (today) and wholesale and retail inventories (tomorrow) will be key to assessing inventory pressures flagged by several firms in recent weeks as well as corporate behaviour amid some easing in supply-chain backlogs. How the consumer is faring under rising rates and stubborn inflation will be another key theme, with the Conference Board’s June consumer confidence index out tomorrow (99.9 expected vs 106.4 last month). Elsewhere, China's industrial data and PMIs (Thursday), as well as key economic indicators from Japan, will be in focus. Even though we at the very back end of Q2 earnings, this week will see some bellwether consumer spending companies such as Nike (Monday), H&M and General Mills (Wednesday) report. Other corporates releasing results will include Prosus (Monday), Micron and Walgreens Boots Alliance (Thursday). Overnight in Asia, equity markets are continuing last week’s rally with the Hang Seng (+2.72%) leading gains thanks to a strong performance in Chinese tech firms. The Kospi (+2.08%), Nikkei (+1.04%), Shanghai Composite (+0.89%) and CSI (+1.24%) are all also up. Outside of Asia, DM equity futures point to further gains with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.19%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.44%) and DAX (+0.79%) moving higher. Bitcoin is above $21,000 after falling to as low as $17,600 last week for the first time since December 2020, while 10yr US yields are up around +2.5bps. Earlier today, data released showed that China’s industrial profits (-6.5% y/y) contracted at a slower pace in May following a big fall of -8.5% in April as companies resumed their activity in major manufacturing hubs amid easing Covid restrictions. In other overnight news, Russia has defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt ($100 million) for the first time in more than 100 years, after the grace period for the payment deadline expired on Sunday. Recapping last week now, markets grew increasingly concerned about a recession as the week went on, thanks to weak economic data, hawkish central bank rhetoric, and the threat of a Russian gas cut-off in Europe. That led to a significant rally in sovereign bonds as investors sought out safe havens and cast doubt on whether central banks could keep hiking into a downturn. Indeed, yields on 10yr bunds came down by -21.9bps over the week as a whole (+1.0bps Friday), which is their 3rd biggest weekly decline in the last decade. Yields on 10yr Treasuries also saw a similar, albeit less marked decline, with yields down -9.6bps (+4.3bps Friday). That decline in yields came in spite of continued hawkish central bank commentary, and on Friday we saw San Francisco Fed President Daly say that a 75bps hike in July was “where I’m starting”, thus joining a growing number of officials who’ve openly backed a 75bps move again. Bear in mind if the Fed did move by 75bps in July, that would mean the hiking cycle since March would now be at 225bps, which matches the entire hiking cycle we saw in 3 years between 2015 and 2018. Nevertheless, when it came to monetary policy expectations, the growing fears of a recession led investors to take out the probability of more aggressive tightening, with the fed funds rate priced in by December’s meeting down by -16.0bps over the week (-5.0bps Friday). And looking at the entire profile of meetings ahead, futures are now expecting the peak Federal funds rate to come as soon as March 2023, before pricing in cuts after that. With investors expecting somewhat more dovish central banks, global equities rallied strongly last week as they recovered from their worst weekly performance since the pandemic began. The S&P 500 gained +6.45% on the week, and its Friday advance of +3.06% was the best daily performance for the index since May 2020. Europe’s STOXX 600 put in a weaker +2.40% advance (+2.62% Friday), but matters weren’t helped by German equities, with the DAX losing -0.06% (+1.59% Friday) as concerns grew about a potential cut-off in Russian gas. That’s sent natural gas futures in Europe to a 3-month high, with last week seeing a further +9.14% gain (-3.63% Friday). Lastly, after the poor mid-week data including the flash PMIs for June, Friday’s releases did bring some modest respite. First, the final reading of the University of Michigan’s long-term inflation expectations was revised down to 3.1% (vs. 3.3% previously). The unexpected jump in that measure before the Fed’s meeting was said to be a factor in their move to 75bps, as they’re very concerned about the prospect that longer-term inflation expectations could become unanchored, making inflation much harder to control. Furthermore, new home sales for the US in May rose to an annualised rate of 696k (vs. 590k expected), whilst the previous month also saw upward revisions. To be fair though, it wasn’t all positive on Friday, and Germany’s Ifo business climate indicator fell to 92.3 in June (vs. 92.8 expected), which marks an end to two successive monthly increases in April and May. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/27/2022 - 08:06.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 27th, 2022

75+ sweet gift ideas for your girlfriend that span all of her interests

We rounded up 76 thoughtful gifts to give your girlfriend, from keepsake jewelry to helpful tech and fitness accessories. Prices are accurate at the time of publication.When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.We rounded up 76 thoughtful gifts to give your girlfriend, from keepsake jewelry to helpful tech and fitness accessories.Brightland/SonosGiving gifts as a couple can be a lot of fun. You know your partner: What they love, what rituals they enjoy, what small daily annoyances you could possibly solve with a thoughtful gift. You also know how much they'll appreciate a gift that comes from you.Odds are you want to give them something wonderful — whatever your price range is. All most of us need is a little direction and a few great options to pick from, so we put together a list of our favorite gift ideas for girlfriends of all personalities and interests to help guide you.Check out 76 great gifts for your girlfriend in 2022:Home and kitchenA small cold brew coffee makerAmazonAirtight Cold Brew Iced Coffee Maker, available at Amazon, $35.99This small cold brew maker (available in 1-liter and 1.5-liter options) makes coffee's less acidic, smoother cousin cold brew in 12 hours in the fridge, so there's a minimal hassle and always a treat ready in the morning on your girlfriend's way out the door to work. A weighted blanket for better restAmazonYnM Weighted Blanket, available at Amazon, $36.50Weighted blankets help create more restful sleep by "grounding" the body, and YnM makes some of the most popular and affordable weighted blankets on the internet. There are multiple sizes and weights for the ideal fit and width (they recommend picking whichever is about 10% of your body weight), and the segmented design allows you to move around without displacing all the weighted beads inside. A high quality scented candle she'll light all the timeNordstromKacey Musgraves and Boy Smells Slow Burn Candle, available at Nordstrom, from $46Kacey Musgrave's collaboration with Boy Smells, a popular emergent candle brand, is woody and dark, with hints of smoked papyrus and amber with ginger and black pepper. We also love Otherland if you're looking for a gift from another on-the-rise startup she may have seen ads for online. For traditional candles, we'd recommend going with Le Labo, Diptyque, and Byredo if they're within your budget. A standing desk for a home office upgradeFullyJarvis Bamboo Standing Desk, available at Fully, from $509.15If she's working from home, your girlfriend might love a home office upgrade the most. We ranked the Fully Jarvis the best standing desk; it provides the right blend of features and reliable performance. Its customizations for style, height, and accessories make it adaptable to pretty much any need. A Dutch oven to elevate their bread gameLodgeLodge Enameled Cast Iron Dutch Oven, available at Walmart, $79.90Did your girlfriend get into baking bread and, miraculously, stay committed to it? If so, a really nice Dutch oven can help elevate her experience. You can get something great for under $100, or you can splurge on a beautiful Le Creuset. Other meaningful upgrades include a cooling rack, according to the famous baker Apollonia Poilâne.A framed keepsake of a favorite memoryFramebridgeFramed photo, available at Framebridge, from $49Gift Card, available at Framebridge, from $25Framebridge makes custom framing a bit more affordable. You can print or paint something on your own and have it framed, or have them print and frame it, and you can take advantage of the team of designers for help deciding what frame to get. A one-size-fits-all lid that instantly declutters the cabinetsMade InSilicone Universal Lid Kit, available at Made In, $69This was one of the gifts that professional chefs recommended to us for avid home cooks. If your girlfriend loves to cook and has a plethora of differently sized pots and pans with all the corresponding lids, having one universal lid can declutter and streamline their space in one move. A customized map of her favorite placeGrafomapCustom Map Poster, available at Grafomap, from $49Grafomap lets you design custom maps of anywhere in the world — like the first place you met, the best trip you ever took together, or the hometown she couldn't wait to show you. It's unique, thoughtful, and pretty inexpensive.  You can find our full review here.An 8-in-1 pan that helps to declutter your homeOur PlaceAlways Pan, available at Our Place, $145If you're spending more time at home cooking together — or re-organizing the kitchen — she may appreciate a good 8-in-1 cookware hack.The Always Pan from startup Our Place is a frying pan, saute pan, steamer, skillet, saucier, saucepan, non-stick pan, spatula, and spoon rest in the space of a single pan. In other words, a clever generalist that's extremely convenient for small spaces or minimalist cooks. You can read our review here.Personalized cartoon couple mugsUncommon GoodsPersonalized Family Mugs, available at Uncommon Goods, from $30These cute mugs can be personalized for what you're like as a couple, making for a special weekend morning coffee routine or just a nice reminder in the kitchen cabinet. On the back, you can add a family name and the year the couple was established if you'd like. A large print on fine art paper of a favorite memoryartifact uprisingLarge Format Prints, available at Artifact Uprising, from $19Artifact Uprising makes luxury prints at accessible prices — and they make especially thoughtful gifts that look like they should cost much more. Get one of their favorite photos printed on archival fine art paper for $20 and up, or thoughtful cards for as little as $1 per custom card. You can also make a color series photo book for $19, a set of prints for $8, and a personalized calendar on a handcrafted wood clipboard for $26.A mug that keeps hot drinks hot for up to six hours straightHydro FlaskHydro Flask Mug, 12 oz, available at Hydro Flask, from $24.95This mug is a common desk companion for the Insider Reviews team. The 12-ounce coffee mug has the company's proprietary TempShield insulation that made its water bottles famous. This mug will keep hot drinks hot for up to six hours, and cold drinks cold up to 24 hours. Read our full review of it here.Comfy, high-end sheets at the best price on the marketBrooklinenLuxe Hardcore Sheet Bundle, available at Brooklinen, from $231.41Brooklinen is one of our favorite companies, point-blank. We think they make the best high-end sheets at the best price on the market, and most of the Insider Reviews team uses Brooklinen on their own beds.The Luxe Hardcore Sheet Bundle comes in plenty of colors and patterns, and you can mix and match them to suit your taste. Grab a gift card if you want to give her more freedom. If you opt for a sheet bundle, she'll receive a core sheet set (fitted, flat, two pillowcases), duvet cover, and two extra pillowcases in a soft, smooth 480-thread-count weave.A houseplant that arrives already potted and is easy to care forLeon & GeorgeSilver Evergreen, available at Leon & George, from $149Leon & George is a San Francisco startup that will send beautiful plants — potted in stylish, minimalist pots — to your girlfriend's door. All she has to do is to occasionally add water. Flowers are wonderful, but houseplants have a much longer shelf life, and most of Leon & George's options are very easy to care for. We'd also recommend checking out Bloomscape for small plant trios under $70.  A beautiful bouquetUrban StemsFlower Bouquets, available at Urban Stems, $55Send flowers to her doorstep. We're fans of UrbanStems; Its bouquets are one of the best things we've ever tested. If you're looking for something that won't be gone after a couple of weeks, you'll also find options for potted plants and low-maintenance, decor-friendly dried bouquets.A pasta maker you can use togetherWilliams SonomaImperia Pasta Machine, available at Williams Sonoma, $149.95Bring the pasta maker and the fixings to make a delicious meal together. It's relatively easy to get the hang of, and you can enjoy quality time with the bonus of incredible ravioli or fettuccine on the other end of it. Food and drinksDelicious sweets from a famous NYC bakeryMilk BarMilk Bar Treats, available at Milk Bar, from $27If your girlfriend has a sweet tooth, send her Milk Bar — the company delivers its iconic and decadent cakes, cookies, and truffles to her doorstep.Her favorite specialty food straight from the sourceGoldbelly/InstagramOrder her favorite specialty foods using Goldbelly, from $28Goldbelly makes it possible to satisfy your girlfriend's most specific and nostalgic cravings no matter where they live in the US — a cheesecake from Junior's, deep dish pizza from Lou Malnati, and more. Browse the iconic gifts section for inspiration. A subscription that sends her a six-month world tour of teasAtlas Tea ClubAtlas Tea Club 6 Month Subscription, available at Atlas Tea Club, $99This subscription sends your girlfriend single-origin teas from the best tea-growing regions in the world for six months. She'll get two delicious options sent to her home each month.A gift card to a popular wine subscription clubWincGift Card, available at Winc, from $50Winc is a personalized wine club — and we think it's the best one you can belong to overall. Members take a wine palate profile quiz and then choose from the personalized wine suggestions. Each bottle has extensive tasting notes and serving recommendations online, and makes it easy to discover similar bottles. Gift her a Winc gift card, and she can take a wine palate profile quiz and get started with her own customized suggestions. A gift card for delicious, healthy meals she can make in about 30 secondsDaily HarvestGift Card, available at Daily Harvest, from $50Daily Harvest is a food startup that makes it possible to eat healthy, delicious meals for less than $10 each even if you only have 30 seconds to spare for prep time. Meals are pre-portioned, delicious, and designed by both a chef and a nutritionist to make sure they're tasty and good for you. It addressed most of my healthy eating roadblocks. The internet's favorite olive oilBrightlandAwake Olive Oil, available at Brightland, $37Brightland's olive oils make great gifts for cooks and anyone else who loves to entertain. The white bottles protect the EVOO from light damage and look nice displayed on a countertop. Find a full review here. A cooking class from one of the nation's top chefsCozymeal/InstagramGift Card, available at Cozymeal, from $50With a Cozymeal class, you and your girlfriend can learn how to make anything from fresh pasta to Argentinian staple dishes from the nation's top chefs. In addition to cooking classes, Cozymeal offers food tours in various cities (when it's safe to do so). Fancy popcorn and a movie nightWilliams SonomaAmish Popcorn Gift Set, available at Williams Sonoma, from $29.95Make a reservation at a nice outdoor restaurant, stock up on your girlfriend's favorite movie candy and some fun drinks ahead of time (wrap them for an extra wow-factor), and create your own in-house cinema experience. Or, perhaps even better, order a bunch of take-out from your favorite local restaurants.A subscription to a coffee service that sends coffees specifically for her taste preferencesDriftaway Facebook3-Month Subscription, available at Driftaway Coffee, from $54If your girlfriend loves coffee, she'll probably love to try Driftaway. It's a gourmet coffee subscription that gets smarter the longer you use it, remembering your preferences and steering you towards increasingly accurate brews for your specific tastes. The first shipment will be a tasting kit with four coffee profiles, which she'll rate online or in the app to start getting personalized options.TechThe best Apple Watch we've triedAppleApple Watch Series 7, available at Amazon, from $383.97If you're looking for a great gift and not concerned about staying in an under-$200 budget, we'd recommend the Apple Watch Series 7.Currently, we think it's the best Apple Watch. The Series 7 can charge up to 80% in 45 minutes, and it's the most advanced version with features such as blood oxygen saturation measuring and an electrocardiogram scanner to detect abnormalities in the heart's rhythm. The best noise-canceling headphonesAmazonSony Noise-Canceling Wireless Headphones, available at Amazon, $348If your girlfriend is into music, the best gift is the one that improves her everyday music-listening experience. For that, we recommend our favorite noise-canceling headphones — Sony's WH-1000XM4 — that balance sound quality, noise cancellation, and comfort at a solid price.You can find more good noise-canceling headphone options here.A tracker for finding cell phones and wallets quicklyAmazonTile Pro, available at Amazon, $34.99When your girlfriend can't find her phone, all she has to do is click the Tile button to make her phone ring, even if it's on silent. We've found them especially useful lately. Apple AirPods Pro for when she's on the moveCrystal Cox/Business InsiderApple AirPods Pro, available at Amazon, $197We love Apple's AirPods Pro for Apple users. They're no-hassle, work with Apple products, have decent sound and noise cancellation, are water-resistant, have a wireless charging case, and feel more comfortable than standard AirPods. You'll find more wireless earbuds we love here.A new waterproof Kindle Paperwhite for reading anywhereAmazonKindle Paperwhite, available at Amazon, $139.99If your girlfriend is a reader, we'd suggest looking at Amazon's new Kindle Paperwhite; it's the company's thinnest and lightest yet, with double the storage. Perhaps the best features are that it's waterproof and has a built-in adjustable light for the perfect reading environment indoors or outdoors, day or night. If she loves a nice, relaxing bath, pair this with a caddy, bath bombs, and a glass of wine for a relaxing night in that you've already taken care of.A small, portable projector to curl up and watch movies withAmazonNebula Projector, available at Amazon, $249.99This is one of the most portable (and affordable) projectors. It's about the size of a soda can, weighs one pound, and has crisp image quality and 360° sound. Use it at home or bring it with you on your travels. Find a full review of the Anker Nebula Capsule here. A powerful, customizable massage gunTheragunTheragun PRO, available at Therabody, $599This is the best massage gun we've tested — though it's also on the higher end of what you would expect to pay. We loved it in part due to its two-year warranty, adjustable massage arm, customizable speeds, 60 lbs of no-stall force, six different heads, an extra battery, and how easy it is to use. If you can't give your girlfriend an unlimited pass to professional massages, this is a nice in-between option. A convenient phone sanitizerPhoneSoapPhoneSoap 3 Smartphone UV Sanitizer, available at PhoneSoap, $79.95This small, easy-to-use device uses UV-C light to sanitize a phone, killing 99.9% of common household germs.The new Sonos Move portable speakerAmazonSonos Move, available at Best Buy, $399.99The Sonos Move is one of the best speakers on the market. It's powerful, can be controlled by voice or an app, and has Amazon Alexa built-in so on WiFi you can play music, check the news, set alarms, get your questions answered, and more, without much effort.Clothing and accessoriesA pair of beautiful pearl earrings she'll own for years to comeStone and StrandElliptical Pearl Huggies, available at Stone and Strand, $250Pearls are timeless, but they're also one of the jewelry trends we're keeping an eye on in 2022. This pair, from the women-led startup Stone and Strand, is made with 14K gold with freshwater pearls.A versatile exercise dressOutdoor VoicesThe Exercise Dress, available at Outdoor Voices, $100Given the popularity of the Exercise Dress, we wouldn't be surprised if this was on your girlfriend's wish list. The Exercise Dress is comfortable, versatile, and cute — which has made it a cult-favorite item. If she's a fan of dresses, Outdoor Voices, or clothes she can wear all day long, this may be a good option. A delicate, timeless diamond necklaceAurateDiamond Bezel Necklace, available at Aurate, $320This is something your girlfriend will wear and own forever. A delicate diamond necklace is an essential piece and will (probably) never go out of style. This option is from one of our favorite startups, AUrate — an ethical fine jewelry startup founded by two women from the Netherlands and Morocco, respectively. The best socks she'll ever wearBombasWomen's Performance Running Ankle Sock 3-Pack, available at Bombas, $49.50Bombas makes the best socks we've ever tried, and they're a gift we find ourselves giving every year to loved ones. They're lightweight, moisture-wicking, and built to circumvent annoyances like uncomfortable seams and heel slipping.Earrings made with her birthstoneMejuriAmethyst Flat Sphere Studs, available at Mejuri, $148If your girlfriend wears jewelry, birthstone earrings that she can keep forever are a thoughtful, personalized gift she'll wear often.  Matching underwear from one of the internet's favorite startupsMeUndiesMatching Underwear, available at MeUndies, $40Get yourself and your girlfriend festive matching underwear — which also happen to be some of the most comfortable pairs we've ever found. MeUndies gives you the options to create your own personalized set — two styles listed for women, two styles listed for men, a mix, and whichever length or cut you and your partner prefer. A monogrammed jewelry case from a minimalist fashion startupCuyanaLeather Jewelry Case, available at Cuyana, $98 (+ $15 for monogram)Keeping track of tiny and delicate jewelry is difficult — but jewelry cases are a pretty and useful solution. This is a thoughtful and personalized gift, especially if you've gotten your girlfriend jewelry in the past, or plan to in the future. It's made from premium leather, comes in many colors, and can be monogrammed with her initials. Cuyana is a cool leather bag startup she may have already heard of. A pair of blue-light-blocking glasses that look good enough to wear outside of the houseFelix GrayFaraday Glasses, available at Felix Gray, from $95If she's ever complained about strain from constant screens, you can help mitigate it with a pair of blue-light-blocking glasses. They might even help with sleep.A stylish, savvy carry-on with an external battery packAwayCarry-On, available at Away, from $275Away's hyper-popular suitcases deserve their hype. Their hard shell is lightweight but durable, their 360° spinner wheels make for seamless traveling, and the external (and ejectable and TSA-compliant) battery pack included can charge a smartphone five times over so she never has to sit behind a trash can at the airport for access to an outlet again. It's also guaranteed for life by Away. Find our full review here.Silky, breathable leggingsEverlanePerform Leggings, available at Everlane, $68Everlane's Perform Leggings are some of our all-time favorites — they're breathable and silky, like a slightly less expensive version of Alo leggings. You can read a full review of the Everlane Perform Leggings and see pictures of them here.The comfiest sneakersAllbirdsWomen's Wool Runners, available at Allbirds, $110The classic Wool Runners make a great gift for the uninitiated, though we'd also highly recommend the brand's casual cup sole Wool Piper for everyday wear if that's more your partner's style. You can find our full review of the Runners here, and the Wool Pipers here.A satin-lined beanieAndrea Bossi/Business InsiderKink & Coil Satin-Lined Beanie, $36Most people with naturally curly hair avoid wearing hats to reduce frizz, but Kink and Coil's satin-lined beanie solves that issue. Just like a silk pillowcase or a bonnet, the inside of the beanie is designed to protect your hair from frizz and damage. On top of that, the pom-pom can be removed, if she'd prefer to wear the hat without it.We spoke with a trichologist to learn more about how satin- and silk-lined beanies can benefit anyone with curly or high-porosity hair. A cashmere crew from Everlane that she'll own foreverEverlaneThe Cashmere Crew, available at Everlane, $145For a closet staple she'll own for years to come, Everlane's $120 Cashmere Crew (available in various colors) is about the safest choice you can make. Everlane has plenty of great gifts (you can find the Everlane basics we wear repeatedly here), so you can't really go wrong. A stylish leather makeup pouch that's thoughtful and easy to travel withDagne DoverHunter Toiletry Bag, available at Dagne Dover, from $40Dagne Dover is quickly becoming one of the best women's handbag companies to know, and its toiletry pouches are a great and relatively affordable gift. The small size holds a handful of go-to toiletries, and the large should have enough space for all of the grooming essentials.A comfy zip-up for the months aheadPatagoniaBetter Sweater, available at Patagonia, from $139Patagonia makes our favorite athleisure options overall, and that definitely includes the Better Sweater. It works in pretty much any environment — in the office, at home, on a hike, or on a casual night out — and has zippered pockets to keep hands warm in the cold months. We're also big fans of the 1/4 Zip option.A stylish weekender to keep her organized on the goCaraa SportStudio Tote, available at Caraa, from $180Caraa Sport makes some of the most functional and best-looking gym bags on the market. This one can transition from tote to backpack by adding straps. It also has a hidden shoe compartment and a waterproof and antimicrobial lining. You can read our full review of this bag here.A pair of silky sweatsAloTailored sweatpants, available at Alo, $118These feel like sweats (in a knit jersey material) but have the sort of tailored fit that you'll find in a nice pair of trousers. So, they feel wonderful and look a bit nicer than the average pair. A new pair of comfy BirkenstocksNordstromBirkenstocks, available at Nordstrom, $134.95If your girlfriend wears the unbelievably comfortable Birkenstocks most days, she might appreciate a new, unblemished pair. They're also in style. BeautyThe best bathrobe money can buyParachuteClassic Turkish Cotton Robe, available at Parachute, $87.20We think the Parachute Classic Turkish Cotton Robe is the best robe on the market. It's soft, fluffy, and absorbent like a towel. It's also got nice deep pockets and a secure waist tie.The cult-favorite hair repair conditioner on her wish listAmazonOlaplex No. 3 Hair Repairing Treatment, available at Amazon, $28This is one gift that will have your girlfriend asking you, "how did you know about this?" If Olaplex isn't already in her shower, it might be on her wish list. The Olaplex No. 3 is good for any hair type and is meant to reduce breakage and strengthen hair from within.16 highly-rated sheet masksAmazonDermal Sheet Mask Set, available at Amazon, $22.99Grab 39 sheet masks to make it easier for your girlfriend to have a frequent and well-deserved "treat yourself" day. These are highly rated and have both vitamin E and collagen included for healthy, happy skin.   The Dyson Airwrap she's seen all over the internetBest BuyDyson Airwrap Complete Styler, available at Best Buy, $599.99The Dyson Airwrap is a minor internet celebrity — so it might already be on your girlfriend's wish list. It replaces three hair devices (blow dryer, straightener, and curling iron) and uses a technology similar to jet engines. In the end, it's a way to get a salon-grade blowout at home, and different attachments let her achieve different styles. Find a Dyson Airwrap review with photos here.But, the cost is a whopping $549, and there are some decent alternatives on the market for far less ($30-$150). If you're looking for a less splashy gift, the Dyson Hair Dryer is also excellent. A small skincare tool that removes 99.5% of dirt, oil, and makeup residueAmazonForeo Luna Play Plus 2, available at Foreo, $89In the category of things your girlfriend may love but hasn't asked for yet: Foreo facial brushes. Our team swears by these gentle yet effective cleansing devices. They have hygienic silicone bristles and come in five different models for different skin types. The Luna is small enough to bring on the go, so your partner can maintain their skincare routine while traveling. A cult-favorite hair towel that reduces damage and cuts drying time by 50%AquisAquis Rapid Dry Hair Towel, available at Anthropologie, $30Aquis' cult-favorite hair towels can cut the amount of time it takes for her hair to dry in half — a claim we're happy to report holds up. The proprietary fabric also means there's less damage to wet hair while it dries. An award-winning at-home facialSephoraDrunk Elephant T.L.C. Sukari Babyfacial, available at Sephora, $80This is an award-winning mask with a big following in the beauty and skincare community. It's $80, but it's an at-home pro-quality facial your girlfriend can use anytime — which is a fraction of the price required for regular facials.Fitness and hobbiesAn expertly designed plannerAmazonSelf Journal, available at Amazon, $31.99 The Self Journal is an undated, 13-week planner that's designed for daily use and quarterly planning. It helps its owner break projects and goals into manageable chunks. We love it.If she's working towards a big goal, this could be a really thoughtful resource — especially if it's the kind of goal you can't help her achieve otherwise.A funny card that pays homage to your girlfriend's favorite TV showEtsySuccession Cousin Greg Birthday Card, available at Etsy, from $4.66You could pick up a card from Walgreens on your way to exchange gifts, but it's so much more thoughtful if you think ahead. For that, we suggest heading to Etsy for affordable, creative, and unique gifts.As Cousin Greg said, "if it is to be said, so it is…"A 215-piece art kit for creative projectsAmazonArt 101 215-Piece Wood Art Set, available at Amazon, $43.70If your girlfriend loves to create art, this 215-Piece art kit includes everything she'll need for projects: crayons, colored pencils, oil pastels, fine line markers, watercolor cakes, and acrylic paint.Tickets to an excellent future concertStubHubConcert Tickets Gift Card, available at StubHub, starting at $25No matter when your girlfriend's favorite musicians are performing again, a gift card for concert tickets won't go to waste — and it gives both of you something to look forward to.A high-tech towel that keeps her from slipping around during yoga classesMandukaManduka Yogitoes Yoga Mat Towel, available at Amazon, from $46.72Manduka is known for making the best yoga products, and their Yogitoes towel is one of the most loved. It has tiny 100% silicone nubs on one side that grab yoga mats and keep yogis from slipping around during the exercise. Having a good towel can make a big difference. It also comes in 19 great colors and gets eco-friendly points. Each Yogitoes towel is made from eight recycled plastic water bottles, and made with dyes free of azo, lead, or heavy metal. A video message from someone she loves almost as much as youCameoCameo Video Messages, available at Cameo, from $1Whether it's your girlfriend's favorite actor, comedian, or athlete, you're likely to find someone she admires on Cameo. Cameo allows celebrities to send custom video messages to recipients for nearly any occasion, and a personalized video is a gift that she'll never forget. A disposable camera that doesn't take you out of the momentGamesgamer024 The gamer/YouTubeDisposable camera, available at Target, $15.99Interested in preserving memories without taking yourself out of them? A good disposable camera or a film camera can take the pressure away from perfection so you and your girlfriend can focus on just savoring experiences together.A planned trip for the two of you to take togetherAirbnbAirbnb Gift Card, available at Airbnb, from $25If you want to gift an experience you and your girlfriend can enjoy together, grab a card, a gift card to Airbnb, and come up with a few location ideas to choose from. You can also book a hotel in your city on Booking.com or Expedia for a sweet staycation. *This gift can be saved and used at a later date.A pass to get into a bunch of boutique fitness classesClasspassClassPass Gift Card, available at ClassPass, from $5Boutique fitness classes are expensive, which can make trying new workouts — either for variety or to figure out what we like — less appealing. ClassPass solves both issues. It's relatively affordable, and members can access a neverending catalog of great workouts with small class sizes. If your partner is getting back into fitness after over a year of at-home workouts, we'd highly recommend a gift card here for whenever they're ready to use it.A year-long MasterClass membership to learn about things she's passionate aboutMasterClassAnnual Membership, available at MasterClass, from $180/yearWe love MasterClass because it kind of feels like entertainment. Classes are short, there's no homework, and she can listen to just the audio like it's a podcast.The site hosts classes taught by well-known celebrities and industry leaders — from Neil deGrasse Tyson teaching Scientific Thinking and Communication to Malcolm Gladwell on Writing, Shonda Rhimes on Writing for Television, and Bob Iger on Business Strategy and Leadership. You can read our full review here.A sleek fitness tracker that includes heart rate monitoringFitbitFitbit Inspire 2, available at Best Buy, $99.95Fitbit's affordable Inspire 2 tracker has no shortage of useful features to keep someone informed about their physical activity — tracking calorie burn, resting heart rate, and heart rate zones.An exercise bike for staying active indoorsNordicTrackCommercial S22i Studio Cycle, available at NordicTrack, $1,899If money is of no object and your partner is trying to figure out how to exercise while staying indoors, an exercise bike is a particularly thoughtful and useful gift right now. We like the NordicTrack option the most overall, but we also like and recommend options that are under $200. A card game that's meant to deepen personal connectionsUrban OutfittersWe're Not Really Strangers Card Game, available at Urban Outfitters, $30This card game, from the popular Instagram account We're Not Really Strangers, is designed to enhance connections between people with different levels: perceptions, connection, and reflection. Not only is it a card game you haven't played before, but it's also a thoughtful activity you can enjoy with your girlfriend.A great foam rollerTB12Vibrating Pliability Roller, available at TB12, $160If your girlfriend is very physically active, a foam roller is a nice gift to aid in her workout recovery and soreness. This one is our favorite because it has four levels of vibration, a pattern that targets muscle groups, and a durable exterior. But, if your budget doesn't fit a $160 foam roller, never fear — we like some under-$50 options too. A subscription to a book club that sends her great hardcovers once per monthBook of the Month/Instagram3-Month Subscription, available at Book of the Month, $49.99If she's a bookworm, Book of the Month is an especially thoughtful and unique gift — it's a book club that has been around since 1926, and it's credited with discovering some of the most beloved books of all time ("Gone with the Wind" and "Catcher in the Rye" to name a couple). If you gift her a subscription, she'll receive a hardcover book delivered to her door once a month. Books are selected by a team of experts and celebrity guest judges.If she's really more into audiobooks or e-reading now rather than hardcovers, check out a gift subscription to Scribd (full review here).Hiking boots she'll thank you forREIForge GTX Hiking Boots, available at REI, $174.73Hiking boots are the MVP of hiking gear, and the right shoes can make all the difference thanks to their fit, ankle support, cushioning, and tread. Overall, we'd recommend getting the Tecninca Forge GTX boots – they're the best overall pair. But you can find suggestions for specific hikes — a pair for backpacking, a day hiking pair — in our buying guide to the best feminine hiking shoes here.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJun 10th, 2022

Futures Jump, Tech Stocks Rally As Beijing Eases Covid Restrictions

Futures Jump, Tech Stocks Rally As Beijing Eases Covid Restrictions Global markets and US equity futures pushed sharply higher to start the new week (at least until some Fed speakers opens their mouth and threatens a 100bps emergency rate hike) as Beijing’s latest move to ease Covid restrictions injected a note of optimism into markets rattled by inflation and rate-hike concerns. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.4% at 7:15 a.m. in New York after the underlying index erased more than $400 billion in market value on Friday amid renewed concerns about tightening monetary policy, as Beijing rolled back Covid-19 restrictions, boosting global risk appetite after reporting zero local covid cases on Monday while also finding no community cases for three straight days... ... while a Wall Street Journal report that China is preparing to conclude its probe on Didi Global boosted sentiment further, with Didi shares surging 50% and sending the Hang Seng Tech index soaring. S&P 500 futures also climbed, rising about 1% and trading near session highs. Treasuries and the dollar slipped. Among other notable movers in premarket trading, Apple rose 1.6%, Tesla jumped 3.9% after tumbling over 9% by the close on Friday, while cryptocurrency-tied stocks jumped with Bitcoin. Here are some other notable premarket movers: Amazon.com (AMZN US) shares rose as much as 2% following a 20-for-1 stock split. Didi Global Inc. (DIDI US) soared after a report that Chinese regulators are about to conclude a probe into the company and restore its apps to mobile stores as soon as this week. Cryptocurrency-tied stocks climb with Bitcoin, which rose beyond the $30,000 level after languishing at the weekend. Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +7.1%; Coinbase (COIN US) +6.6%. Crowdstrike (CRWD US) shares rise as much as 3.9% following an upgrade to overweight from equal- weight at Morgan Stanley, with the broker saying that the cyber security firm offers “durable” growth and free cash flow at a discount. ON Semi (ON US) shares rise as much as 8.2%. The sensor maker will be added to the S&P 500 Index this month, S&P Dow Jones Indices said late US stocks slumped in last week’s final session after strong hiring data cleared the way for the Federal Reserve to remain aggressive in its fight against inflation by raising rates, and after repeat warnings by Fed presidents that the central bank was willing to keep hiking. This week, focus will be on the latest US CPI print to assess how much further the Fed will tighten policy. Inflation is likely to “stall by the end of this year unless the energy or oil prices double again, but a lot of it is already priced in,” Shanti Kelemen, chief investment officer at M&G Wealth, said on Bloomberg Television. While the economy is likely to slow, “I don’t think the US will flip into a recession this year. I think there is still too much of a tailwind from spending and economic activity.” Goldman economists said the Fed may be able to pull off its aggressive rate-hike plan without tipping the country into recession. The easing of Chinese lockdowns will help abate supply-chain pressures, said Diana Mousina, a senior economist at AMP Capital. “Positive news around Chinese economic activity and cheaper equity valuations could offer value from a long-term investment perspective, but volatility will remain high in the short-term,” Mousina said in a note. On the other hand, Morgan Stanley's permagloomish Michael Wilson warned that weakening corporate profit forecasts will provide the latest headwind to US stocks, which are likely to fall further before bottoming during the second-quarter earnings season. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was up 0.9% with technology and mining stocks leading gains. Basic resources led an advance in the Stoxx Europe 600 index as copper rose to its highest since April, with sentiment across industrial metals bolstered by China’s gradual reopening. The technology sector also outperformed, following a gain for Asian peers and amid a recovery in Nasdaq 100 futures in the US. The Stoxx 600 Tech index was up as much as 2.1%; Stoxx 600 benchmark up 0.9%. Tencent-shareholder Prosus was among the biggest contributors to the gain amid a rise for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tech index, driven by Didi Global and Meituan; Tencent shares rose 2.4% while    Semiconductor-equipment giant ASML was the biggest contributor to the gain; other chip stocks ASMI, Infineon and STMicro all higher too. Just Eat Takeaway also higher following a report that Grubhub co-founder Matt Maloney had worked with private equity investor General Atlantic to buy back the food delivery company he sold to the Dutch firm last year. Here are some of the other notable European movers today: Just Eat Takeaway.com shares rise as much as 12% in the wake of a report saying Grubhub co-founder Matt Maloney had worked with private equity investor General Atlantic to buy back the food delivery company he sold to the Dutch firm last year for $7.3b. Semiconductor-equipment giant ASML climbs as much as 3.1% as European tech stocks outperform the broader benchmark, following a gain for Asian peers and amid a recovery in Nasdaq 100 futures. LVMH gains as much as 1.7% with luxury stocks active as Beijing continues to roll back Covid-19 restrictions in a bid to return to normality. Kering and Hermes both climb as much as 1.9%. Melrose rises as much as 4.7% after the firm said it has entered into an agreement to sell Ergotron to funds managed by Sterling for a total of ~$650m, payable in cash on completion. Serica Energy jumps as much as 12%, the most since March 30, after the oil and gas company published a corporate update and said it expects to benefit from investment incentives packaged with the UK’s windfall tax. Airbus rises as much as 2.8% after Jefferies reinstated the stock as top pick in European aerospace & defense, replacing BAE Systems, as short-term production challenges should not overshadow the potential to double Ebit by 2025. EDF drops as much as 3.3% after HSBC analyst Adam Dickens downgraded to reduce from hold, citing “corroded confidence” Accell falls as much as 4.8%, the most intraday since December, after KKR’s tender offer for the bicycle maker failed to meet the 80% acceptance threshold. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is set to announce an end to bond purchases this week and formally begin the countdown to an increase in borrowing costs in July, joining global peers tightening monetary policy in the face of hot inflation. The ECB is planniing to strengthen its support of vulnerable euro-area debt markets if they are hit by a selloff, Financial Times reported. Italian and Spanish bonds gained. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed, supported by a rally in Chinese tech shares and positive sentiment following Beijing’s economic reopening.  The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 0.6% as Hong Kong-listed internet names jumped after a report that authorities are wrapping up their probe into Didi Global. Hong Kong and Chinese shares were among the top gainers in the region, also helped by Beijing moving closer to returning to normal as it rolled back Covid-19 restrictions. “As policymakers continue to deliver on support pledges, the worst is likely behind us,” said Marvin Chen, strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “We are seeing the beginning of a recovery into the second half of the year as the growth outlook bottoms out.” Japanese shares were higher, with transportation and restaurant stocks gaining after the Nikkei reported the government is considering restarting the “Go To” domestic travel subsidy campaign as soon as this month. Japanese equities erased early losses and rose with Chinese stocks as a loosening of Covid-19 restrictions in Beijing increased bets that economic activity will pick up. The Topix rose 0.3% to 1,939.11 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 0.6% to 27,915.89. Daiichi Sankyo Co. contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 3.7%. Foreign investors are returning to emerging Asian equities after several weeks of outflows, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Weekly inflows for Asian stock markets excluding Japan and China climbed to almost $2.7 billion last week, the most since February. Asian stocks have been outperforming their US counterparts over the past few weeks, with the MSCI regional benchmark up 5.7% since May 13, more than double the gains in the S&P 500. Stock markets in South Korea, New Zealand and Malaysia were closed on Monday Stocks in India dropped amid concerns over inflation as the Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate setting panel starts a three-day policy meeting.  The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.2% to 55,675.32 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.1%. Ten of the 19 sector sub-gauges managed by BSE Ltd. slid, led by an index of realty companies. Makers of consumer discretionary goods were also among the worst performers.  “The market has been exercising caution ahead of the credit policy announcement this week, and hence investors trimmed their position in rate-sensitive sectors such as realty,” according to Kotak Securities analyst Shrikant Chouhan.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond rose to its highest level since 2019 on Monday amid a surge in crude prices and ahead of the RBI’s rate decision on Wednesday. Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 0.5%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 9 rose and 21 fell. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.5% to close at 7,206.30 after a strong US jobs report reinforced bets for aggressive Fed tightening. The RBA is also expected to lift rates on Tuesday, with the key debate centering on the size of the move. Read: Australia Set for Back-to-Back Rate Hikes Amid Split on Size Magellan was the worst performer after its funds under management for May declined 5.2% m/m. Tabcorp climbed after settling legal proceedings with Racing Queensland. In New Zealand, the market was closed for a holiday In FX, the dollar fell against its Group-of-10 peers as hopes for a recovery in China’s economy damped demand for the haven currency. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3% after posting a weekly gain on Friday. China’s equity index jumped after Beijing rolled back Covid-19 restrictions and received a further boost after a report that a ban on Didi adding new users may be lifted. “Further lifting of restrictions in Beijing helped Chinese equities, which spilled over into Europe with risk more ‘on’ than ‘off’,” Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes wrote in a note to clients. “The dollar is once again on the back foot.” USD/JPY dropped 0.1% to 130.73. It touched 130.99 earlier, inching closer to the 131.35 reached last month, which was the highest since April 2002.  “Dollar-yen is being sold for profit-taking because we don’t have enough catalysts to break 131.35,” said Juntaro Morimoto, a currency analyst at Sony Financial Group Inc. in Tokyo. But, should US inflation data due this week be higher than estimated, it will see dollar-yen break 131.35. In rates, Treasuries, though off session lows, remained under pressure as S&P 500 futures recover a portion of Friday’s loss. 10-year TSY yields rose 1bp to 2.95%, extending the streak of advances to five days, the longest in eight weeks; UK 10-year yield underperformed, jumping 6bps to 2.21% after domestic markets were closed Thursday and Friday for a holiday. US auctions resume this week beginning Tuesday, while May CPI report Friday is the main economic event. IG dollar issuance slate includes Tokyo Metropolitan Govt 3Y SOFR; this week’s issuance slate expected to be at least $25b. Three- month dollar Libor +3.90bp to 1.66500%. Bund, Treasury and gilt curves all bear-flatten, gilts underperform by about 2bps at the 10-year mark. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany. In commodities, WTI crude futures hover below $120 after Saudis raised oil prices for Asia more than expected. Spot gold is little changed at $1,851/oz. Spot silver gains 1.5% near $22. Most base metals trade in the green; LME nickel rises 5.4%, outperforming peers. LME tin lags, dropping 0.7%. There is no major economic data on the US calendar. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.1% to 4,152.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.9% to 443.90 MXAP up 0.6% to 169.12 MXAPJ up 0.8% to 558.02 Nikkei up 0.6% to 27,915.89 Topix up 0.3% to 1,939.11 Hang Seng Index up 2.7% to 21,653.90 Shanghai Composite up 1.3% to 3,236.37 Sensex little changed at 55,772.44 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,206.28 Kospi up 0.4% to 2,670.65 German 10Y yield little changed at 1.29% Euro up 0.2% to $1.0742 Brent Futures up 0.5% to $120.28/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,851.93 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.22% to 101.92 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Boris Johnson will face a leadership vote in his ruling Conservative Party on Monday following a series of scandals, including becoming the first sitting prime minister found to have broken the law. Chinese regulators are concluding probes into Didi and two other US-listed tech firms, preparing as early as this week to lift a ban on their adding new users, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The European Central Bank is set to strengthen commitment to support vulnerable euro-area debt markets if they are hit by a selloff, the Financial Times reported, citing unidentified people involved in the discussions. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed following last Friday's post-NFP losses on Wall St and ahead of this week's global risk events - including central bank meetings and US inflation data, while participants also digested the latest Chinese Caixin PMI figures and the North Korean missile launches. ASX 200 was pressured by weakness in tech and mining, with sentiment not helped by frictions with China. Nikkei 225 pared early losses but with upside limited by geopolitical concerns after North Korean provocations. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were encouraged by the easing of COVID restrictions in Beijing, while the Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMI data improved from the prior month but remained in contraction. Sony Group (6758 JT) said its planned EV JV with Honda Motor (7267 JT) may hold a public share offering, according to Nikkei. Top Asian News China’s Beijing will continue to roll back its COVID-19 restrictions on Monday including allowing indoor dining and public transport to resume in most districts aside from Fengtai and some parts of Changping, according to Reuters and Bloomberg. Furthermore, a China health official called for more targeted COVID control efforts and warned against arbitrary restrictions for COVID, while an official also said that Jilin and Liaoning should stop the spread of COVID at the border. Australia accused China of intercepting a surveillance plane and said that a Chinese military jet conducted a dangerous manoeuvre during routine surveillance by an Australian plane over international waters on May 26th, according to FT. BoJ Governor Kuroda said Japan is absolutely not in a situation that warrants tightening monetary policy and the BoJ's biggest priority is to support Japan's economy by continuing with powerful monetary easing, while he added Japan does not face a trade-off between economic and price stability, so can continue to stimulate demand with monetary policy, according to Reuters. European bourses are firmer on the session, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%, with newsflow thin and participants reacting to China's incremental COVID/data developments during reduced trade for Pentecost. Stateside, futures are bid to a similar extent in a paring of the post-NFP pressure on Friday, ES +1.0%, with no Tier 1 events for the region scheduled today and attention very much on inflation data due later. Chinese regulators intend to conclude the DiDi (DIDI) cybersecurity probe, and remove the ban on new users, via WSJ citing sources; could occur as soon as this week. DIDI +50% in pre-market trade Top European News Most of the ECB governing council members are expect to back proposals to create a bond-purchase programme to buy stressed government debt, such as Italy, according to sources cited by the FT. Confidence vote in UK PM Johnson to occur between 18:00-20:00BST today, results to be immediately counted, announcement time TBC. London’s Heathrow Airport ordered carriers to limit ticket sales for flights until July 3rd to maintain safety amid understaffing and overcrowding, according to The Times. French Finance Minister Le Maire expects positive economic growth this year although will revise economic forecasts in July, according to Reuters. EU Commissioner Gentiloni said he aims to propose reform for the EU stability pact after summer which could envisage a specific debt/GDP target for each country, while he added that Italy should show commitment to keeping public debt under control and needs to avoid increasing current spending in a permanent way, according to Reuters. FX Pound perky on return from long Platinum Jubilee holiday weekend as UK yields gap up in catch up trade and Sterling awaits fate of PM; Cable above 1.2550 to probe 10 DMA, EUR/GBP tests 0.8550 from the high 0.8500 area. Dollar eases off post-NFP peaks as broad risk sentiment improves and DXY loses 102.000+ status. Kiwi lofty as NZ celebrates Queen’s birthday and Aussie lags ahead of RBA awaiting a hike, but unsure what size; NZD/AUD above 0.6525, AUD/USD sub-0.7125 and AUD/NZD cross closer to 1.1050 than 1.1100. Euro firmer amidst further declines in EGBs, bar Italian BTPs, eyeing ECB policy meeting and potential news on a tool to curb bond spreads, EUR/USD nearer 1.0750 than 1.0700. Loonie underpinned by rise in WTI after crude price increases from Saudi Arabia, but Lira extends losses irrespective of CBRT lifting collateral requirements for inflation linked securities and Government bonds; USD/CAD under 1.2600, USD/TRY not far from 16.6000. Fixed income Gilts hit hard in catch-up trade, but contain losses to 10 ticks under 115.00 awaiting the outcome of no confidence vote in PM Johnson Bunds underperform BTPs ahead of ECB on Thursday amidst reports that a new bond-buying scheme to cap borrowing costs may be forthcoming; 10 year German bond down to 149.59 at worst, Italian peer up to 123.15 at best US Treasuries relatively flat in post-NFP aftermath and ahead of low-key Monday agenda comprising just employment trends Commodities Crude benchmarks are bid by just shy of USD 1.00/bbl; though, overall action is contained amid limited developments and two-way factors influencing throughout the morning. Saudi Aramco increased its prices to Asia for July with the light crude premium raised to USD 6.50/bbl from USD 4.40/bbl vs Oman/Dubai, while it raised the premium to North West Europe to USD 4.30/bbl from USD 2.10/bbl vs ICE Brent but maintained premiums to the US unchanged from the prior month. Oman announced new oil discoveries that will increase output by 50k-100k bpd in the next 2-3 years, while it noted that its crude reserves stand at 5.2bln bbls and gas reserves are at around 24tln cubic feet, according to the state news agency citing the energy and minerals minister. Libya's El Sharara oil field resumed production at around 180k bpd after having been shut by protests for more than six weeks, according to Argus. French Finance Minister Le Maire said that France is in discussions with the UAE to replace Russian oil supplies, according to Reuters. US will permit Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol to begin shipping oil from Venezuela to Europe as early as next month to replace Russian crude, according to Reuters citing sources familiar with the matter. Austria released strategic fuel reserves to cover for loss of production at a key refinery due to a mechanical incident, according to Reuters. Indonesia will adjust its palm oil export levy with the regulations that will outline the changes expected soon, according to a senior official in the economy ministry cited by Reuters. Turkish presidential spokesman Kalin said deliveries of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea and through the area of the strait could begin in the near future, according to TASS citing an interview with Anadolu news agency. US Event Calendar Nothing major scheduled DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Later this morning, I will be publishing the 24th Annual Default Study entitled "The end of the ultra-low default world?". Please keep an eye out for it but I won't let you miss it in the EMR and CoTD over the next few days! For those in the UK, I hope you had a good four-day weekend. We went to two big parties and my digestive system and liver need a rest. Well, until my upcoming birthday this weekend!. One of the parties had a converted VW campervan with 5 or 6 self-service drinks taps on the outside of which one was filled with ice cold Prosecco. Thankfully the Queen doesn't have a 70-year Jubilee very often! The fun and games in markets this week are heavily back ended as an ECB meeting on Thursday is followed by US CPI on Friday. The rest of the week is scattered with production and trade balance data, while Chinese aggregate financing data is expected at some point. The Fed are now on their pre-FOMC blackout so the attention will be firmly on the ECB this week. So let's preview the two main events. For the ECB, our European economists believe the ECB will confirm that APP net purchases will cease at the end of the month, paving the way for policy rate lift-off at the July meeting. Our economists believe the ECB will have to hike rates by 50 basis points at either the July or September meeting, with the risks skewed toward the latter, to accelerate the policy hiking cycle in light of growing inflationary pressures. Our economists also believe that hiking cycle will ultimately reach a 2 percent terminal rate next summer, some 50 basis points into restrictive territory. As prelude, next week watch for the staff's forecast to upgrade inflation to 2 percent in 2024, satisfying the criteria for lift-off. With all three lift-off conditions met, expect the statement language to upgrade rate guidance for the path of the hiking cycle. Meanwhile, the June meeting should also bring about the expiration of the TLTRO discount. There are two interesting things for the ECB to consider at the extreme end of the spectrum at the moment. Firstly German wages seem to be going higher. In a note on Friday, DB's Stefan Schneider (link here) updated earlier work on domestic wage pressures by highlighting that on Thursday night, the 700k professional cleaners in the country achieved a 10.9% pay rise. In addition, with the nationwide minimum wage legalisation voted through on Friday, the lowest paid in this group will get a +12.6% rise from October. At the other end of the spectrum 10yr Italian BTPs hit 3.40% on Friday, up from 1.12% at the start of the year and as low as 2.85% intra-day the preceding Friday. We're confident that the ECB will create tools to deal with Italy's funding issues, but it is more likely to be reactive than proactive to ensure legal barriers to intervene are not crossed. However, the nightmare scenario we've all been hypothetically thinking about for years, if not decades, is here. Runaway German inflation at the same time as soaring Italian yields. The good news is that this should bring a lot more targeted intervention and a better-balanced policy response than in the last decade where negative rates and blanket QE was a one size fits all policy. High inflation will force the ECB to hike rates while managing the fall out on a more bespoke basis. It won't be easy, but it will likely be better balanced. Following on from the ECB, the next day brings the US CPI data. Month-over-month CPI is expected to accelerate to 0.7% from last month’s 0.3% reading. The core measure stripping out food and energy is expected to print at 0.5%. Those figures would translate to 8.3% and 5.9% for the year-over-year measures, respectively (from 8.3% and 6.2% last month). The Fed policy path for the next two meetings appears to be locked in to 50 basis point hikes, but Fed officials have highlighted the importance of inflation readings to determine the path of policy thereafter. There is a growing consensus that month-over-month inflation readings will have to decelerate in order to slow hikes to 25 basis points come September. Some Fed officials are still considering ramping the pace up to 75 basis points if inflation doesn’t improve. None appear to be considering zero policy action in September. Elsewhere, data will highlight production figures and the impact of the nascent tightening of financial conditions, with PMI, PPI, and industrial production figures due from a number of jurisdictions. Asian equity markets have overcame initial weakness this morning and are moving higher as I type. Across the region, the Hang Seng (+1.14%) is leading gains due to a rally in Chinese listed tech stocks. Additionally, the Shanghai Composite (+1.01%) and CSI (+1.06%) are also trading up after markets resumed trading following a holiday on Friday. The easing of Covid-19 restrictions in Beijing is helping to offset a miss in China’s Caixin Services PMI for May. It came in at 41.4 (vs. 46.0 expected), up from 36.2 last month. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.30%) is also up while markets in South Korea are closed for a holiday. Outside of Asia, US stock futures have been steadily climbing in the last couple of hours before finishing this with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.55%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.65%) both in the green. US Treasuries are ever so slightly higher in yield. Recapping last week now and a renewed sense that global central banks would have to tighten policy more than was priced in given historic inflation drove yields higher and equity markets lower over the past week. This reversed a few weeks where market hike pricing had reversed. This move was driven by a series of inflationary data but also came right from the source, as Fed and ECB speakers sounded a hawkish tone ahead of their respective meetings in June. Elsewhere, OPEC+ met and agreed to expand daily production, which was followed by reports that President Biden would visit the Crown Prince in Saudi Arabia. Peeling back the covers. A series of ECB speakers openly considered the merits of +50bp hikes in light of growing inflation prints, as core Euro Area CPI rose to a record high, while German inflation hit figures not seen since the 1950s. In turn, 2yr bund yields climbed +30.9bps (+3.0bps Friday), and the week ended with +122bps of tightening priced in through 2022, the highest to date and implies some hikes of at least +50bps. A reminder that our Europe economists updated their ECB call to at least one +50bp hike in either July or September; full preview of that call and next week’s ECB meeting here. Yields farther out the curve increased as well, including 10yr bunds (+31.0bps, +3.6bps Friday), OATs (+32.3bps, +4.2bps Friday), and gilts (+23.8bps, +5.4bps Friday) on their holiday-shortened week. Italian BTP 10yr spreads ended the week at their widest spread since the onset of Covid at 212bps. The tighter expected policy weighed on risk sentiment, sending the STOXX 600 -0.87% lower over the week (-0.26% Friday). It was a similar story in the US, where a march of Fed officials, led by Vice Chair Brainard herself, again signed on for +50bp hikes at the next two meetings, and crucially, ruling out anything less than a +25bp hike in September. It appeared there was growing consensus on the Committee to size the September hike between +25bp and +50bps based on how month-over-month inflation evolves between now and then, with clear evidence of deceleration needed to slow the pace of hikes. The May CPI data will come this Friday but last week had a series of labour market prints that showed the employment picture remained white hot, capped on Friday with nonfarm payrolls increasing +390k and above expectations of +318k. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings maintained its +0.3% month-over-month pace. Treasury yields thus sold off over the week, with 2yr yields gaining +17.9bps (+2.5bps Friday) and 10yr yields up +20.1bps (+3.1bps Friday). The implied fed funds rate by the end of 2022 ended the week at 2.82%, its highest in two weeks, while the probability of a +50bp September hike ended the week at 66.3%, its highest in a month. The S&P 500 tumbled -1.20% (-1.63% Friday), meaning its run of weekly gains will end at a streak of one. Tech and mega-cap stocks fared better, with the NASDAQ losing -0.98% (-2.47% Friday) and the FANG+ fell -0.30% (-3.76% Friday). Elsewhere OPEC+ agreed to increase their production to +648k bls/day, after a steady flow of reports leaked that the cartel was considering such a move. Nevertheless, futures prices increased around +1.5% (+3.10% Friday) over the week, as it was not clear whether every member had the spare capacity to increase production to the new putative target, while easing Covid restrictions in China helped increase perceived demand. The OPEC+ announcement was closely followed by reports that President Biden would visit the Crown Prince in Saudi Arabia. Tyler Durden Mon, 06/06/2022 - 07:51.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeJun 6th, 2022

33 thoughtful college graduation gifts for him, from time-saving tech to gift cards so he can buy whatever he needs

Make their transition out of college a bit easier this year with useful graduation gifts for him that span from the latest in tech to gift cards. Prices are accurate at the time of publication.When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Make their transition out of college a bit easier this year with useful graduation gifts for him that span from the latest in tech to gift cards.Crystal Cox/Insider and Magic SpoonGraduating from college and entering a new life chapter is a reason for celebration. Whether he's setting up a new apartment, starting a new job, or taking a beat to figure out his next step, there's a gift you can give that will make the transition a bit easier or even just more fun.You'll find 33 gifts to give your new graduate, from the latest tech to gift cards to buy whatever his heart desires.Here are 33 of the best graduation gifts for him in 2022:Apple AirPods Pro for when he's on the moveCrystal Cox/InsiderGift the Apple Airpods Pro, available at Amazon, $174.99We love Apple's AirPods Pro for Apple users. They're no-hassle, work with Apple products, have decent sound and noise cancellation, are water-resistant, have a wireless charging case, and feel more comfortable than standard AirPods.You'll find more wireless earbuds we love here.A wireless charging padBed Bath & BeyondGift the Catch:3 Wireless Charging Station, available at Bed Bath & Beyond, $99.99He can toss his phone or AirPods onto this tray that doubles as decor and their tech will charge without being plugged in. If he's got AirPods and an Apple Watch, you may want to check out this option from Zagg, too.A nice mixology setWilliams SonomaGift the Williams Sonoma Mixology Shaker & Tools Set, available on Williams Sonoma, $96.95If he's old enough to drink, a nice mixology set is great for when they host friends. This kit comes with quality basics — you could pair it with their favorite spirit delivered right to their door.Our most recommended French pressAmazonGift the Bodum Chambord French Press, available at Amazon, $25.99Coffee is a crucial part of many adults' mornings. We love the Bodum Chambord French Press for a good cup; it's about as timeless as they come, unfussy, and affordable. You can find all our favorite French presses here, though this is our number one pick.A framed photo of their friendsFramebridgeGift a Framebridge Frame, available on Framebridge, from $45Most of us appreciate some nostalgia; frame a photo of the graduate's friends or some of their favorite memories from school, so they can take them anywhere they call home.A Fitbit he can use while exercisingFitbitGift the Fitbit Versa 3, available at Best Buy, $229.95If he loves being active, a Fitbit will keep track of interesting metrics such as heart rate, sleep quality, and exercise stats for him. We like the Fitbit Versa 3 the most, but you may find another option that works best for your graduate.You can read about all of the best Fitbit trackers here.Cereal that feels like childhood but is responsible like adulthoodMagic Spoon cerealMagic SpoonGift the Magic Spoon Variety Case, available at Magic Spoon, from $39A childlike cereal for grown-ups is a nice transition into adulthood. Magic Spoon tastes like the sugared cereal some of us daydreamed about as kids, but it's high in protein and low in carbohydrates. You can find a full Magic Spoon review here.A must-read financial guide bookAmazonGift "I Will Teach You to Be Rich," available at Amazon, $12.87Instead of skimping on lattes, it's wiser to choose the right accounts and investments so your money grows for you — automatically. Best of all, it frees you up to spend on the things you love.Executive Editor for Personal Finance Insider Libby Kane says she regularly buys a new copy of this book just to give it away, and it's an excellent introduction to making the most of your personal finances — especially if your graduate is young or new to managing money.A record player for his new homePottery BarnGift the Crosley Voyager Turntable, available at Best Buy, $89.95For the one who's constantly listening to music, a turntable for his new abode makes for a functional and decorative gift — perfect for setting a good mood in the home and elevating the aesthetic in any room. He can jam out to all of his favorite tunes, whether it's while he cooks in the kitchen or works in the office.A gift card to decorate their home as they chooseTargetGift a Target Gift Card, available at TargetGift a The Container Store Gift Card, available at The Container StorePick up a gift card to a store with affordable home goods such as Target or the Container Store so they can organize and decorate their new space with less stress.A facial cleanserFOREOGift the FOREO Luna 3 Men, available at FOREO, $199This facial cleansing brush has left both male and female reporters on our team with clear, smooth skin. This particular model works as a state-of-the-art facial scrub brush, pre-shaving, and anti-aging tool.Supporting the "fewer, better" mentality, the FOREO Luna 3 Men has a lifespan and level of quality that justify the price tag — so they can make great use of your gift for years to come. A pleasant way to wake up every dayNordstromGift the Hatch Restore Reading Light, Sound Machine & Sunrise Alarm Clock, available at Nordstrom, $129.99Help them transition to earlier mornings with an alarm clock that wakes them up by mimicking sunlight.A toiletry bag to use at home or for travelRainsGift the Rains Weekend Wash Bag, available at Rains, $50Rains is a Denmark-based company chiefly known for making high-quality, stylish raincoats. This wash bag is of the same spirit. It's completely waterproof, which is a necessity for any good toiletry bag. The pouch features adjustable buckles that enable him to alter the volume of the bag to his needs.A great streaming deviceRokuGift the Roku Ultra 3, available at Amazon, $179.99The Roku Ultra 3 stands out from other streaming device options thanks to its 4K and HDR support, speed, reliability, and large library of streaming services (Netflix, HBO Max, Rakuten Viki).Plus, if he wants to watch TV on the big screen without disturbing anyone, it comes with headphones for private listening.Read the full review of the Roku Ultra 2020 here.A Disney Plus subscriptionDisney PlusGift a Disney Plus subscription, available at Disney Plus, $7.99 per month or $79.99 per year ($5.83/month)Graduating from college usually marks the beginning of "adulting," but he'll eventually need a break from being a grownup. With everything from classic Disney movies and shows from his childhood to Star Wars and Marvel movies, a Disney Plus subscription is a sure way to stay entertained.Learn more about Disney Plus here. A made-to-measure suitIndochinoGift an Indochino Gift Card, available at Indochino, from $50Suits — especially the nice ones — are a large yet ultimately useful expense for most men, even if it's only for special occasions rather than his everyday job. This is one gift he'll likely wear for years to come — and something he will likely need before he has the budget to afford it. A Brooklinen gift card for new sheetsBrooklinenGift a Brooklinen Gift Card, available at Brooklinen, from $50Your graduate may appreciate an upgrade in bedding to match their new chapter or their new space. Brooklinen is a common recommendation for us — you get premium, cant'-wait-to-go-to-bed bedding at relatively affordable prices. Read our Brooklinen sheets review here.An Amazon Echo to play music, answer questions, and coordinate with other techAmazonGift the Amazon Echo, available at Amazon, $49.99From music and radio stations to trivia and much, much more, your graduate will have ample distractions and helpful, hands-free info (like the weather or quick measurement conversions) while they're busy running around their place.We also have other smart speaker recommendations from other brands here.An electric pressure cookerHappy Foods Tube/ShutterstockGift an Instant Pot Duo 6-Quart, available at Amazon, $55.30Just in case the idea of tossing tons of ingredients into a pot in the morning and coming home to a nicely cooked meal appeals to him, the Instant Pot is every recent graduate's best friend.Ultimately, if they spend most of their day at work or commuting, the last thing they'd want to do is come home to devote two of their three free hours to making a lavish dinner for one. Plus, it cuts down on how many dishes he'll have to wash.We even rank this Instant Pot as the best budget option in our guide to the best electric pressure cookers.A popular, stylish suitcaseThe Medium Flex looks quite similar to the original Away Medium suitcase.Emily Hochberg/InsiderGift the Away Carry-On Suitcase, available at Away, from $275An Away suitcase is a particularly thoughtful gift for grads living far from home or planning future travel. The cult-favorite luggage has an ejectable external battery that charges devices easily on the go, 360-degree wheels for no-hassle travel, and weighs only 7.6 pounds. Read our full review of Away suitcases here. A sleek wallet he can keep foreverBellroyGift the Bellroy Note Sleeve Wallet, available at Bellroy, from $89Bellroy wallets last pretty much forever, which is one reason why they take the top spot in the Insider Reviews buying guide to the best men's wallets. This Note Sleeve is a best seller. It's compact but big enough for 4-11 cards — the most important cards go in the easy-access slots and the rest can be stored in a pull tab. A foundational cookbook he will actually useAmazonGift "How to Cook Everything," available at Amazon, $19A lot of graduates are coming out of school with little knowledge of cooking outside of mac and cheese or $1 pizza. A cookbook is a nice way to make sure they can get off on the right foot post-graduation, enjoying the activity itself rather than defaulting to takeout. A Bonobos gift cardBonobosGift a Bonobos Gift Card, available at Bonobos, from $25No matter what he has in store for life after graduation, he'll surely want to upgrade his wardrobe. Bonobos is a high-quality menswear brand that sells everything from chinos, button-ups, and suits for the office to casual styles like jeans, polos, and T-shirts to wear on the weekends. Read our full reviews of Bonobos' chinos and Bonobos' Chelsea boots.An Amazon gift cardAmazonGift an Amazon Gift Card, available at AmazonIf what you really want to do is just give cash but are looking for a nicer equivalent, an Amazon Gift Card is a subtle way to accomplish the same freedom and utility. Amazon has virtually everything a new grad could desire (really, there is everything), so you know that no matter what they'll be getting something they genuinely want — which, in a lot of cases, is best since they know what they need better than anyone.An Amazon Prime membershipAmazonGift a year of Amazon Prime, available at Amazon, $139An annual Amazon Prime membership is one of those things that immediately make life easier and ultimately better. If you decide to gift one, the recipient will enjoy free two-day shipping; access to the Prime Now app, which provides free two-hour delivery on tens of thousands of items; Prime Video, Amazon's streaming video service; Prime Music; the Kindle Lending Library; Prime Reading; Prime Audible Channels; unlimited photo storage, and more. Read about Amazon Prime member benefits here.A fancy messenger bagLeatherologyGift the Leatherology Henderson Laptop Brief Bag, available at Leatherology, from $300This Leatherology bag is an option that inspires a bit more confidence than a JanSport. The startup makes great leather accessories for much less than you'd expect to pay, like a $300 messenger bag. You'll find a few more budget-friendly options at Herschel Supply. A customized business card holderEtsyGift the VITT Personalized Card Holder, available at Etsy, from $32.50While his company will likely give him business cards, he's not likely to already have a business-card holder he can feel good about pulling out of his pocket. A card holder like this monogrammable option from Etsy looks competent and thoughtful.A reusable Hydro Flask that keeps drinks at the perfect temperatureHydroflaskGift the Hydroflask, available at Amazon, $32.96We love Hydro Flask's insulated, dishwasher-safe bottles — they'll keep hot drinks hot or cold drinks ice-cold for hours. This is also one of the items featured in our list of the All-Time Best products we've tested.A small but powerful speakerBest BuyGift the Sonos One (Gen 2) wireless speaker, available at Best Buy, $219.99Sonos makes some pretty great speakers for recent grads. They work well, can be used as a sound system, have useful features like a morning alarm that may sound more pleasant than their phone, and aren't so expensive that they can't possibly build upon their collection. If he's planning on entertaining friends, the Sonos One is a great option, especially since it connects with Amazon Alexa. A great weekend bagDagne Dover/FacebookGift the Dagne Dover Landon Carryall, available at Dagne Dover, from $110Dagne Dover has earned a spot as one of our default recommendations for great bags. Their weekender/carry-on Landon Carryall is made out of a cool neoprene material and has ample organization. It has an internal laptop sleeve, an exterior phone pocket, and a detachable key leash, plus a few other helpful design features. Read our full review of the Dagne Dover Landon Carryall here.A Kindle for post-grad readingAmazonGift the Kindle Paperwhite, available at Amazon, $109.99Learning is an ongoing process, and graduation shouldn't be the end of it. Giving them a Kindle means they'll have the tools to keep being curious in their lives by having the device that makes it an easy and affordable process.If they already have a Kindle or they read on their phone or iPad, you might look into gifting them a Scribd membership. It's lesser-known than apps like Audible, but it's a better deal and will give them access to hundreds of thousands of books and audiobooks. Read our full review of the Kindle Paperwhite here.A toolkit, which they will undoubtedly need in "real life"AmazonGift the Cartman 148-Piece Tool Kit, available at Amazon, $29.99After graduation, you enter the "real world" and the real world includes putting together furniture, Googling how to fix leaky faucets when your landlord avoids your calls, and enticing your friends to help you mount your living room TV with pizza.He'll be glad he has the tools to handle whatever life throws at him confidently, and this is one gift he may not immediately buy for himself, but which you really want to have before the very second you need it. Nice noise-canceling headphonesAntonio Villas-Boas/Business InsiderGift the Sony WH-1000XM4 Headphones, available at Amazon, $348Our favorite noise-canceling headphones balance sound quality, noise cancellation, and comfort. They're perfect for long commutes, focusing during work, or relaxing. This is also one of the items featured in our list of the All-Time Best products we've tested.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderMay 9th, 2022

Futures Flat As Yen Discombobulation Extends To Record 13th Day

Futures Flat As Yen Discombobulation Extends To Record 13th Day After some jerky rollercoaster moves in Monday's illiquid trading session, which jerked both higher and lower before closing modestly in the green, US futures resumed their volatility and at last check were trading flat after earlier in the session rising and falling; Nasdaq futures retreated 0.1%. as investors weighed the risks to economic growth from hawkish Federal Reserve comments. Stocks in Europe dropped as markets reopened after the Easter holiday, while bonds around the globe slumped as investors weighed the prospect of aggressive policy action to curb inflation. Asian stocks also dropped as did oil, while the dollar extended its gains .  Treasuries extended declines, with the 10-year yield hitting a fresh three-year peak north of 2.90%. German and U.K. 10-year yields climbed to the highest since 2015 as bonds across Europe plunged. The grotesque farce that is MMT came one step closer to total collapse as the yen dropped for a record 13th day, its longest-losing streak in at least half a century with the credibility of the BOJ - that central bank that launched MMT, QE and NIRP - now hanging by a thread. It wasn't all bad news however, because with the yen losing more of its purchasing power, Japanese stocks gained. Disruptions to supply chains from China’s lockdowns and to commodity flows from the war are keeping pressure on central banks to rein in runaway prices at a time when global growth is tipped to slow. The World Bank cut its forecast for global economic expansion this year on Russia’s invasion. Meanwhile, investors - already betting on an almost half-point Federal Reserve rate increase next month - continue monitoring comments from policy makers as prospects of monetary tightening weigh on the sentiment. St Louis Fed President James Bullard said the central bank needs to move quickly to raise interest rates to around 3.5% this year with multiple half-point hikes and that it shouldn’t rule out rate increases of 75 basis points. The last increase of such magnitude was in 1994. “The Bullard comments really encapsulate the quandary that many of the world’s central banks have found themselves in,” said Jeffrey Halley, a senior markets analyst at Oanda. “Luckily, they have plenty of excuses in the shape of the pandemic and the Ukraine war. Central banks can now play catchup, hike aggressively and run the risk of recessions. Getting the pain over and done may be the least worst option.” Over in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Monday that Russian forces had begun the campaign to conquer the Donbas region in Ukraine’s east. Here are all the latest news and headlines over Ukraine: Russia's Belgorod provincial Governor said a village near the Ukrainian border was struck by Ukraine, according to RIA. However, Sputnik noted that no casualties were reported. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says another stage of its operation is beginning Russian Defence Ministry is calling on Ukrainian and foreign fighters to leave the metallurgical plant in Mauripol without arms and ammunition today, via Reuters; adding, the US and other Western countries do everything to drag out the Ukrainian military operation. White House said US President Biden will hold a call with allies and partners on Tuesday to discuss continued support for Ukraine and efforts to hold Russia accountable, according to Reuters. French Finance Minister Le Maire says an embargo on Russian oil is being worked on, adds that we have always said with President Macron that we want such an embargo, via Reuters; aims to convince the EU on such an embargo in the coming weeks. Russia's Gazprom has not booked gas transit capacity via Yamal-Europe pipeline for May. In premarket trading, Zendesk rose 4.1% in premarket trading after a report about the software company hiring a new adviser to explore a potential sale. NXP Semiconductors dropped 2.5% in premarket trading after Citi cut the stock to neutral from buy, saying in note that its thesis on margin expansion has played out. Other notable premarket movers include: Amazon (AMZN US) could be active as Barclays analyst Ross Sandler is upbeat on it heading into 1Q results and sees gross merchandise value (GMV) accelerating on a 1-yr basis in 2Q. Netgear (NTGR US) dropped 11% in extended trading Monday after reporting preliminary net revenue for the first quarter that trailed the average analyst estimate. Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) climbed 15% after the maker of server and storage systems reported fiscal 3Q preliminary profit and sales that beat the average analyst estimate. Acadia (ACAD US) shares declined in postmarket after it said Phase 2 clinical trial of the efficacy and safety of ACP-044 for acute pain following bunion removal surgery didn’t meet the primary endpoint. WeWork (WE US) advanced in postmarket trading Monday as coverage starts with an overweight rating and $10 price target at Piper Sandler, which highlights that the co-working company is on track to achieve profitability by late 2023 or early 2024. European stocks slumped with the Stoxx 600 dropping 1.1% led lower by healthcare and media shares as traders returned from a lengthy Easter holiday, with technology stocks also underperforming; the energy sub-index the only sector gaining in Europe in Tuesday trading as investors digest the recent rally in crude prices. Meanwhile in Russia equities fell for a second day with the benchmark MOEX Index dropping as Russia’s military pressed on with its offensive in southern and eastern Ukraine, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy saying Moscow had launched a new campaign focused on conquering the Donbas region. The MOEX dropped as much as 3.2%, adding to declines of 3.4% on Monday with Lukoil, Sberbank and Gazprom leading losses. Here are some of Europe's biggest movers: TotalEnergies rises as much as 3.6% to the highest level since the end of last month after reporting higher refining margins, as well as better liquids and gas prices Spectris gains as much as 6.3% after the firm said it will sell its Omega Engineering business to Arcline Investment Management for $525m, and also announced a GBP300m buyback program Carrefour climbs as much as 3% as Berenberg upgrades to buy from hold, saying that higher inflation is making the food retail sector more challenging, but will also reveal outperformers Virbac advances as much as 11% after the French maker of veterinary products raised the top end of its sales growth forecast. Oddo upgraded the stock to outperform. Food delivery shares lead European tech lower as U.S. Treasury yields touch new highs following a hawkish comment from a Federal Reserve President, Just Eat Takeaway -4.5%; Delivery Hero -2.5% European consumer staples and luxury stocks fall as markets reopen after a 4-day break, with higher inflation and looming interest-rate hikes at the forefront of investor worries L’Oreal, which reports 1Q sales after the market close today, slumps as much as 4.1%; LVMH decreases as much as 1.9%, Hermes down as much as 4% Wizz Air drops as much as 6.1% after being downgraded to reduce at HSBC, with the broker saying the low-cost airline’s decision to not hedge its fuel prior to the outbreak of the Ukraine war could bite Adevinta falls as much as 9.8% after Bank of America downgraded to underperform from neutral on Thursday, due to the classifieds business’s large exposure to the automotive sector Elior and SSP Group shares retreat after both are downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank on downside risks; Elior down as much as 3.7%, SSP as much as 6.1% Earlier in the session, Hong Kong technology names declined on ongoing concerns over regulation. China dropped as investors assessed measures to tackle economic headwinds from Covid-led lockdowns. Asian stocks declined for a third day, as continued concerns over China’s regulatory crackdowns and the prospect of aggressive monetary-policy tightening by the Federal Reserve weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.6%, with Chinese technology shares including Tencent and Alibaba the biggest drags after Beijing announced a “clean-up” of the video industry. Hong Kong stocks were the worst performers around the region as trading resumed after Easter holidays, while equities rose in Japan and South Korea. The People’s Bank of China on Monday announced measures to help businesses hit by Covid-19, as the latest economic data started to show the impact of extended lockdowns. Investors are awaiting further easing with the release of China’s loan prime rates on Wednesday, after the central bank last week announced a smaller-than-expected cut in the reserve requirement for banks. Whether policy support measures will “flow significantly into the economy will be on watch,” and market participants may “want to see signs of recovery before taking on more risks in that aspect,” said Jun Rong Yeap, a strategist at IG Asia Pte. Hawkish Fed member James Bullard raised the possibility of a 75 basis-point hike in interest rates. Concerns of inflation and moves by the Fed and other central banks to fight it have driven the recent global equity selloff, with the Asian benchmark down about 11% this year. In China, markets are also awaiting the release of banks’ benchmark lending rates on Wednesday after the People’s Bank of China reduced the reserve requirement ratio for most banks Friday but refrained from cutting interest rates. The latest policy measures “have really highlighted easing is required,” Gareth Nicholson, Nomura chief investment officer and head of discretionary portfolio management, said on Bloomberg Television. “The markets don’t believe enough has been done and they’re going to have to step it up.” Japanese equities gained, rebounding after two days of losses as the continued weakening of the yen bolstered exporters. Electronics and auto makers were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which rose 0.8%. Tokyo Electron and Advantest were the largest contributors to a 0.7% rise in the Nikkei 225. The yen extended declines to a 13th straight day, its longest losing streak on record, falling through 128 per dollar. Australian stocks also advanced, with the S&P/ASX 200 index rising 0.6% to close at 7,565.20 as trading resumed following Easter holidays. The energy and materials sectors gained the most.  Cleanaway was among the biggest gainers, climbing the most since April 2021 after a media report said KKR has been preparing an offer for the Australian waste management company. City Chic Collective was the biggest decliner, falling to its lowest since December 2020. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 11,835.88. In rates, Treasuries slipped, with yields rising by as much as 6bps in the long end of the curv, however they traded off session lows reached during European morning as those markets reopened after a four-day holiday. Yields beyond the 5-year are higher by 3bp-4bp, 10-year by 3.3bp at 2.89% after rising above 2.90% earlier; U.K. and most euro-zone 10-year yields are higher by at least 5bp, correcting spreads vs U.S. created Monday when those markets were closed. The yield curve continues to steepen; 7- to 30-year yields reached new YTD highs, nearly 3% for 30-year. Japanese government bonds were mixed. Focal points for U.S. session are corporate new-issue calendar expected to include more financial offerings and comments by Chicago Fed President Evans. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, after earlier rising to its highest since July 2020, and the dollar fell against almost all of its Group-of-10 peers. Commodity-related currencies and the Swedish krona were the best performers while the Japanese currency fell versus all of its G-10 peers. The yen extended its longest-losing streak in at least half a century, and touched 128.45 per dollar, its weakest level since May 2002, amid concerns over further widening in yield differentials. The euro reversed an Asia session loss even amid another round of bearish option bets in the front-end due to political risks. Bunds extended a slump, underperforming Treasuries, before a five-year debt sale and as money markets increased ECB tightening wagers. The Australian dollar surged against the yen to levels last seen almost seven year ago. RBA minutes said quicker inflation and a pickup in wage growth have moved up the likely timing of the first interest-rate increase since 2010. The New Zealand dollar also advanced; RBNZ Governor Orr reiterated the central bank’s aggressive rate stance. The pound was little changed and gilts slid, sending the U.K. 10-year yield to the highest since 2015 as money markets bet on a faster BOE policy tightening path. In commodities, crude futures declined. WTI trades within Monday’s range, falling 1.5% to trade around $106. Brent falls 1.5% to ~$111. Most base metals trade in the green; LME copper rises 1.4%, outperforming peers. Spot gold is down 0.1% to $1,977/oz. Bitcoin was flat and holding steady at the bottom of the sessions USD 40.6-41.2k parameters. Looking at the day ahead, data is light with US March building permits, housing starts, and Canada March existing home sales. The IMF will also release their 2022 World Economic Outlook. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,401.75 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 456.07 MXAP down 0.4% to 171.55 MXAPJ down 0.3% to 570.60 Nikkei up 0.7% to 26,985.09 Topix up 0.8% to 1,895.70 Hang Seng Index down 2.3% to 21,027.76 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,194.03 Sensex up 0.5% to 57,438.93 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,565.21 Kospi up 1.0% to 2,718.89 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.91% Euro up 0.2% to $1.0808 Brent Futures down 0.7% to $112.40/bbl Brent Futures down 0.7% to $112.40/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,979.91 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 100.73 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Record numbers of U.K. business leaders expect operating costs to soar this year as inflation proves more sticky than thought, according to a survey by Deloitte French President Emmanuel Macron led his rival Marine Le Pen 55.5% to 44.5% ahead of the run-off presidential election set for April 24, according to a polling average calculated by Bloomberg on April 19. The gap between them has widened from the 8.2 percentage points recorded on April 15 Nationalist leader Marine Le Pen never led in the three campaigns she’s run for France’s top job, but a protectionist stance on economic issues in recent years has allowed her to reach some voters who traditionally backed left- wing candidates China’s central bank announced a spate of measures to help an economy which has been hit by lockdowns to control the current Covid outbreak, but the focus on boosting credit likely means the chances for broad-based easing are shrinking A more detailed breakdown courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks saw a mixed performance as more markets reopened and trade picked up from the holiday lull. ASX 200 gained on return from the extended weekend, led by strength in commodity-related sectors and top-weighted financials. Nikkei 225 briefly reclaimed the 27k level as continued currency depreciation underscored the Fed and BoJ policy divergence. Hang Seng was pressured as it took its first opportunity to react to the PBoC’s underwhelming policy decisions and with tech hit after Shanghai's market regulator summoned 12 e-commerce platforms including Meituan on price gouging during COVID outbreaks. Shanghai Comp was choppy as participants mulled over the latest virus-related developments including an increase in Shanghai deaths and the lockdown of five districts in the steel producing hub of Tangshan, although policy support pledges from the PBoC and NDRC ultimately provided a cushion. Top Asian News Japan’s Stepped-Up Warnings Fail to Stem Yen’s Slide Past 128 China’s Promises to Support Covid-Hit Economy Fail to Impress China Tech Stocks Slump on Didi Delisting Plan, Regulation Woes Sri Lanka Officially Requests Rapid IMF Funds Amid Crisis European bourses are negative on the session but were choppy and rangebound for much of the morning before dropping further amid renewed yield upside, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.4%. Stateside, US futures have given up their initial positive performance and are now lower across the board, ES -0.3%, and the NQ -0.4% lags given yield action; session is focused on Fed speak and earnings with NFLX due. Truist Financial Corp (TFC) Q1 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.23 (exp. 1.10), Revenue 5.32bln (exp. 5.47bln) Top European News Stellantis Idles One of Russia’s Last Auto Plants Left Running Commodities Trader Gunvor Doubled Profits on Hot Gas Market European Gas Falls to Lowest Since Russian Invasion of Ukraine Credit Suisse’s Top China Banker Tu Steps Aside for New Role FX: USD/JPY breezes through more option barriers and disregards more chat from Japanese officials about demerits of Yen weakness; pair pulls up just pips shy of 128.50. DXY tops 101.000 in response before pulling back as Europeans return from long Easter break. Aussie outperforms as RBA minutes highlight more recognition about inflationary environment externally and internally. Kiwi next best G10 currency as RBNZ Governor Orr underlines that policy is being weighted towards anchoring inflation expectations; AUD/USD hovers under 0.7400 and NZD/USD around 0.6750 Euro trying to hold near 1.0800 where 1.3bln option expiry interest rolls off at the NY cut, Pound regains 1.3000 plus status and Loonie pivots 1.2600 on the eve of Canadian CPI. Yuan close to 6.4000 ahead of Chinese LPR rate verdict on Wednesday amidst heightened easing expectations. Fixed income: EU bonds correct lower after long Easter holiday weekend then pick up the baton to push US Treasuries even lower; Bunds giving up 154.00 and dropping to a 153.58 trough in short order and USTs lower to the tune of 7 ticks. Decent demand for German Bobls, but high price in terms of yield and a larger retention - limited relief seen in the benchmark, given broader action. Benchmark 10 year cash rates approaching new psychological marks of 1.0%, 2.0% and 3.0% in Bunds, Gilts and T-notes respectively. Commodities Crude benchmarks are softer after yesterday's firmer session, which was driven by Libya supply concerns, currently moving in tandem with broader equity performance awaiting fresh geopolitical developments. Currently, WTI and Brent are modestly above session lows which reside sub USD 106/bbl and USD 111/bbl respectively. OPEC+ produced 1.45mln BPD below targets during March, via Reuters citing a report; compliance 157% (132% in February). Spot gold and silver are contained with the yellow metal pivoting USD 1975/oz while copper derives further impetus from Peru protest activity. MMG said protesters at the Las Bambas copper mine alleged a failure to comply with social investment commitments, while it rejected the allegations and noted that Las Bambas will be unable to continue copper output as of April 20th. US Event Calendar 08:30: March Building Permits MoM, est. -2.4%, prior -1.9%, revised -1.6% 08:30: March Housing Starts MoM, est. -1.6%, prior 6.8% 08:30: March Building Permits, est. 1.82m, prior 1.86m, revised 1.87m 08:30: March Housing Starts, est. 1.74m, prior 1.77m Central Bank Speakers 12:05: Fed’s Evans Speaks to Economic Club of New York DB's Tim Wessel concludes the overnight wrap Welcome back to another holiday-shortened week for many markets. What it lacks in tier one data releases, it makes up for with heavy hitting central bank speakers and a core European Presidential election. We’re also wading into the thick of earnings season, while the on-running war in Ukraine has the potential to tip markets in any direction at the speed of a headline. Starting with the central bankers, President Lagarde and Chair Powell will sit on an IMF panel to discuss the global economy in the last Fed communications before their May meeting blackout period. The Fed has primed markets for a +50bp hike in May, and pricing has obliged, with futures placing a 98.1% probability of a +50bp rise, along with +246bps of tightening for the entire year. Governor Bailey won’t miss out on the action and is also delivering an address Thursday. Other Fed regional Presidents will speak throughout the week, with the Fed’s Beige Book due Wednesday. The IMF, meanwhile, will release their global outlook later today. As a reminder, DB Research updated our World Outlook earlier this month, where we are calling for recessions in the US and the euro area within the next two years. Plenty more in the link here. US earnings season will diversify beyond the financials-heavy slate from last week. Today is a nice microcosm of the change up, showcasing earnings from Johnson & Johnson, Halliburton, Hasbro, Lockheed Martin, Netflix, and IBM. On data the rest of the week, we’ll receive German PPI and Canadian CPI Wednesday, along with global PMIs Friday. US housing data dot the rest of the week, as we unravel the competing threads of tight inventories, heightened demand, and supply constraints, against higher mortgage rates on housing activity. Finally, the second round of the French Presidential election is this coming Sunday. Politico’s latest polling aggregates still have incumbent President Macron outpacing Marine Le Pen by around 9% in Sunday’s runoff. Our Europe team has their takeaways from the first round here. The ECB’s April meeting garnered top billing during the EMR’s long weekend (our Euro econ team’s full review here). Overlaid on an inflationary backdrop, the Governing Council is weighing the downside risk to growth against the upside risk to inflation stemming from the recent conflict. While uncertainty pervades, the latter risks are more pressing, which drove their decision to signal net APP purchases would end in Q3, paving the way for policy rate liftoff later this year. Our economists expect the last APP net purchases will occur in July, with the risk skewed toward June, with a +25bp liftoff in September. Markets have +11.8bps of hikes priced by July, +35.6bps by September, and +64.4bps of hikes through 2022. There was no new tool to address market fragmentation, though the ECB signaled imperfect policy transmission would not stand in the way of lifting rates and a new tool would be created if need be. 10yr BTP spreads were -5.0bps tighter to bunds over the week, and +3.3bps wider the day of the meeting. Elsewhere, as mentioned, a suite of US financials reported. Looking through the releases, it seems most FICC trading desks benefitted from the quarter of volatility and higher rates are set to improve margins. However, the prospect of an economic slowdown or potential exposures to war fallout cloud the outlook. S&P 500 financials were -2.65% lower on the week. Taking a longer view of last week, sovereign yields marched higher on the back of tighter expected monetary policy, and the yield curve’s recent sharp steepening continued. 10yr Treasury and bund yields respectively increased +12.8bps (+12.9bps Thursday, +2.5bps yesterday) and +13.5bps (+7.6bps Thursday) with continued heightened volatility. Real yields drove most of the gains in the US (+10.2bps for the week, +4.6bps Thursday, -1.0bps yesterday), ending the week at -0.09%, the highest level since early 2020. 10yr real yields are now +101.7bps higher this year, having had their climb only briefly interrupted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The 2s10s Treasury curve steepened +19.1bps (+2.5bps Friday, +2.9bps yesterday). There were not many positives to hang onto in Ukraine last week. Negotiation progress turned sour, President Biden labeled Russia’s invasion a ‘genocide’, and the US upped the provision of heavy weaponry to Ukraine, which was met with a diplomatic warning from Russia. The EU also pledged additional aid, while Finland began the process of applying for NATO membership and Sweden is reportedly considering the same. On the ground, Russian forces continued their eastern offensive, surrounding Ukrainian defenders of the port city Mariupol. Along with the drag on sentiment, the International Energy Agency warned the full disruption to Russian oil supply had yet to bind, with as much as 3 million barrels of oil per day coming offline starting in May. Brent crude futures therefore climbed +8.7% (+2.68% Thursday, +1.31% yesterday), and closed yesterday at $113.16/bbl, their highest level in three weeks. The S&P 500 fell -2.13% (-1.21% Thursday, -0.02% yesterday in a very quiet session) while the STOXX 600 managed to lose just -0.2% after a +0.7% rally Thursday into the holiday. In the S&P, energy (+3.53%) outperformed given the oil spike, while large cap stocks underperformed on the valuation hit wrought by rising yields, with FANG+ falling -4.81% (-3.16% Thursday, +0.25% yesterday). Asian equity markets are ambivalent about returning after a long holiday, with the Hang Seng (-2.80%) leading regional losses. Mainland Chinese stocks are faring better, with the CSI dipping -0.38% while the Shanghai Composite is -0.03% lower. This, following the PBOC announcing yesterday increased financial support for industries, businesses, and people affected by Covid-19. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.12%) and the Kospi (+0.90%) are up. Outside of Asia, S&P 500 (+0.20%) and Nasdaq (+0.28%) futures are both trading higher. The RBA minutes overnight signaled they are not too far from joining the global tightening cycle, as they expect inflation to further increase above target. The yen extended its depreciation streak against the US dollar, falling -0.58% to 127.73 per dollar, the weakest level since May 2002, as diverging monetary policy paths take their toll. Oil prices and 10yr Treasury yields are little changed overnight; brent futures are +0.19% higher, while 10yr Treasury yields are -1.5bps lower. To the day ahead, data is light on top of the aforementioned earnings, with US March building permits, housing starts, and Canada March existing home sales. The IMF will also release their 2022 World Economic Outlook. Tyler Durden Tue, 04/19/2022 - 08:05.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeApr 19th, 2022

Futures Slide, Nat Gas Soars As Traders Return From Holiday

Futures Slide, Nat Gas Soars As Traders Return From Holiday Equity futures fell, Treasury yields rose and nat gas prices soared to the highest since 2008 as US markets reopened after a three-day holiday weekend while the U.K. and euro-zone markets remain closed. Nasdaq 100 futures led the retreat, falling 0.3% at 730 a.m. EDT after tumbling as much as 0.8%, and signaling a bearish start to the week after the U.S. market was closed on Friday for a holiday. S&P 500 futures also dropped 0.2%, while European markets remained closed on Monday. Oil was flat, while a cautious overall investor mood bolstered the dollar and gold. The USDJPY was set for the longest winning streak on record. Nat gas soared another 3%, rising to the highest level since 2008. “We think inflation is no longer a net positive for earnings growth given the impact on costs that are now showing up in margins,” Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note. The effects of soaring prices “are now more likely to be a headwind to growth.” In U.S. premarket trading, Twitter rose after Elon Musk said the economic interests of the board are not aligned with shareholders as the social media company took steps to ward off his takeover attempt. Meanwhile, DiDi Global plummeted after the company said it will hold an extraordinary general meeting on May 23 to vote on delisting its shares from the New York Stock Exchange. Fed Chair Jerome Powell may reinforce bets that the central bank will raise interest rates by a half point in May when he speaks at an event on Thursday. Later that day he’s due to participate in a panel hosted by the International Monetary Fund. Investors will also focus on earnings and guidance as companies from Bank of America to The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation report on Monday. The pattern across markets suggests investors remain uncertain whether high inflation has peaked or not. Price pressures are being fanned by supply-chain snarls from China’s Covid restrictions and disruptions to commodity flows due to the war. Concern is growing that the U.S. economy faces a downturn as the Fed pivots toward aggressive policy tightening to contain the cost of living. History suggests the Fed will face a difficult task in tightening policy to cool inflation without causing a U.S. recession, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. It put the odds of a contraction at about 35% over the next two years. “Major regime change is rarely smooth in either geopolitics or economics, and markets are under-pricing these risks,” Eric Robertsen, chief strategist at Standard Chartered Bank Plc, wrote in a note. “We are increasingly concerned about a summer of turbulence and volatility.” Meanwhile, in its latest downbeat note, Morgan Stanley wrote that the positive effects from inflation on earnings growth for U.S. firms have peaked as rising costs trim their margins and price pressures caused by the Ukraine war hit consumers. U.S. index futures followed a decline in Asia-Pacific stocks, which were sapped by Japan and China, despite the latter reporting stronger than expected GDP while March economic data confirmed that recent lockdowns have crippled the local economy. Markets in Australia, Hong Kong and much of Europe remain shut for Easter. Asian stocks dropped for a second day in holiday-thinned trading amid continued concern over the impact of inflation and efforts to contain it on global economic growth. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.1%, with India, Vietnam and Japan leading losses among national benchmarks. Mumbai-listed IT giants were among the biggest drags on the regional gauge after disappointing results from Infosys due to surging wages. Hong Kong and Australia remained closed for Easter holidays. Energy stocks outperformed after oil climbed on political unrest in Libya and Russia’s warning of the potential for record prices if more nations ban its products. Concerns of energy-driven inflation and moves by the Federal Reserve and other central banks to combat it have driven the recent global equity selloff, with tech stocks bearing the brunt in Asia. Meanwhile, China reported faster economic growth for the first quarter, while retail sales in March showed the first monthly decline since July 2020, as markets brace for the impact of the latest Covid outbreaks and lockdowns. The nation’s central bank refrained from lowering interest rates Friday, disappointing investors who had been looking for a cut. China Jitters Mount as Easing Calls Echo Across Trading Floors “China’s first quarter GDP was a bit stronger than expected, but what matters now is how the economy is doing after lockdowns in Shanghai so I see very limited impact on markets,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank. “I would think we are just seeing a calm before the storm.”  In geopolitics, Ukrainian officials said the remaining defenders of Mariupol are encircled by Russian forces but have not surrendered the strategically important port city, as a deadly strike was reported in Lviv near the Polish border. Ukrainian officials will be in Washington for this week’s meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to seek financial support. In rates, Treasuries were higher across the curve by ~1bp, led by longer-maturity issues; 10- and 30-year yields reached new YTD highs, steepening the curve. 10-year Treasury yields edged down one point to 2.83% in the Asia session after rising as much as 5bps earlier in the session to 2.88% and rising 13 basis points last week; 30-year as much as 4.4bp to 2.96%; 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are wider but remain inside last week’s ranges, when both steepened sharply for a second straight week as traders dialed back the total amount of Fed tightening that’s expected following smaller-than-expected increase in the March core CPI. Yields climbed during Asia session amid speculation the market will move further toward pricing in a half-point rate increase by the Fed at its May meeting, already almost fully priced in. In FX, a gauge of the dollar rose against all its Group-of-10 peers; The New Zealand and Australian dollars led declines while the Japanese yen outperformed, swinging between gains and losses as BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the currency’s rapid moves were fueling negative effects on the economy. The dollar extended its advance for a 12th day versus the yen, the longest winning streak on record, according to data going back five decades compiled by Bloomberg. USD/JPY up by as much as 0.3% to 126.79; one-week risk reversals at a 35 basis-point premium in favor of the topside. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said a weak yen is good for the economy, although a rapid drop can disrupt corporate planning. “With several markets closed for holiday today, the low liquidity may potentially amplify the risk-off market moves, aiding to support the dollar strength,” said Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG Asia Pte. The currency market stuck to the trading patterns of recent days as a holiday-thinned session on Monday brought low volumes in spot and options markets alike. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 4,371.75 MXAP down 0.9% to 172.33 MXAPJ down 0.7% to 572.84 Nikkei down 1.1% to 26,799.71 Topix down 0.9% to 1,880.08 Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 21,518.08 Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,195.52 Sensex down 2.2% to 57,073.46 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,523.43 Kospi down 0.1% to 2,693.21 Brent Futures down 0.4% to $111.27/bbl Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,991.92 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.22% to 100.72 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg U.S. natural gas prices surged to the highest level in over 13 years as robust demand tests drillers’ ability to expand supplies China reported its biggest decline in consumer spending and worst unemployment rate since the early months of the pandemic as Covid lockdowns put a strain on the world’s second- largest economy Shanghai reported its first deaths as the biggest Covid flareup China has faced during the pandemic prompted more cities around the country to impose restrictions on their residents The odds of an economic contraction in the U.S. over the next two years are about 35%, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Long-maturity Treasuries are contending with their biggest drawdown on record, according to their most popular exchange-traded fund Japan’s giant investors look set to bet on yen weakness continuing and boost their purchases of Treasuries over the rest of the year A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asian stocks traded mostly negative and US equity futures were also subdued amid a higher yield environment as gains in energy prices stoked inflationary' concerns, while market sentiment was also clouded by the mass holiday closures for Easter Monday and with participants reflecting on the recent PBoC actions and Chinese GDP data. Nikkei 225 (-1.6%) underperformed and fell beneath the 27k level with the index not helped by a choppy currency as officials continued their jawboning including BoJ Governor Kuroda who stated the recent Yen weakening has been quite sharp and that an excessively weak Yen or the currency's rapid depreciation can have a further negative impact but is basically positive overall. KOSPI (+0.1%) was indecisive after North Korea conducted projectile launches a day after the 110th birth anniversary of leader Kim's late grandfather and state founder Kim II Sung, while the US and South Korea are also to begin their spring training exercises this week. Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) was negative following the PBoC’s recent actions including the narrower than expected 25bps RRR cut on Friday which follows the central bank's surprise decision to keep its 1-year MLF rate unchanged and with headwinds from the ongoing COVID-19 concerns in China where more cities tightened controls and Shanghai reported its first fatalities from the current outbreak but also recently unveiled plans to resume production in the city. Furthermore, stronger than expected Chinese GDP growth for Q1 and Industrial Production in March failed to spur risk appetite, as the data only partially took into account the latest restrictions including the lockdown in Shanghai that began in late March, while Retail Sales disappointed and the Unemployment Rate increased. As a reminder, markets in Australia. New Zealand and Hong Kong were closed for holiday and there are also mass closures across Europe including the UK for Easter Monday. Top Asian News Larsen Said to Weigh Merging Tech Arms Into $22 Billion Firm Sri Lanka Must Show IMF Sustainable Debt Plan to Secure Aid Tesla Shanghai Sets Out Hand Washing, Sleeping Plans for Workers DiDi Shares Plunge in U.S. Premarket on Plan for Delisting Vote Europe remains closed for the Easter holiday US Event Calendar 10:00: April NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 77, prior 79 Central Banks 16:00: Fed’s Bullard Discusses the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy Tyler Durden Mon, 04/18/2022 - 07:48.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeApr 18th, 2022

Futures Flat Ahead Of ECB And Barrage Of Bank Earnings With $2.1 Trillion In Options Expiring

Futures Flat Ahead Of ECB And Barrage Of Bank Earnings With $2.1 Trillion In Options Expiring US index were flat on Thursday, reversing earlier gains sparked by hopes of imminent easing in China, as investors turned their attention to the ECB which is set to maintain its speedier withdrawal of stimulus, data on retail sales and unemployment claims, and a barrage of earnings from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, and all of this happening as $2.1 trillion in options are set to expire (since tomorrow is a holiday). At 7;00am ET, S&P futures were unchanged at 4440, Nasdaq futures were down 0.1% and Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.2%. Asian stocks rose after China again indicated looser monetary policy is on the way. Treasuries extended gains as investors dialed back aggressive bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. The yen bounced from a two-decade low against the dollar. The greenback slipped after snapping its longest winning streak since 2020. Oil fell. Twitter shares soared after Elon Musk offered to buy the whole company for $54.20. Delta Air Lines gained 0.9% in premarket trading, extending this week’s rally after it had its price projection raised at JPMorgan and Barclays. However the biggest mover in the premarket was Twitter which soared as much as 18%, and was last trading at $51 following a hostile offer by Elon Musk; Tesla shares fell. While elevated and sticky inflation “remains a key risk for investors,” there are signs that price growth will ease in the rest of the year, according to Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “In our base case, this should allow central banks to slow the pace of monetary tightening and tone down hawkish rhetoric,” he said. “That in turn should lower the threat of an economic hard landing.” China is expected to cut a key policy interest rate for the second time this year on Friday and reduce the reserve requirement ratio soon. South Korea raised its key interest rate and Singapore further tightened policy, spurring advances in their currencies. “We have actually turned cautiously optimistic on the Chinese equity market in April already,” Stefanie Holtze-Jen, Asia-Pacific chief investment officer at Deutsche Bank AG in Singapore, said on Bloomberg Television. “We perceived the communication from the government as the line in the sand.” “We’re still being cautious” about equities, Michael Vogelzang, chief investment officer at CAPTRUST, said on Bloomberg Television. “We think there’s still a lot more that can go wrong than probably can go right.” The latest developments over the war in Ukraine included a European Union warning for member states that President Vladimir Putin’s demand that “unfriendly countries” effectively pay for Russian gas in rubles would violate sanctions. The U.S. will expand the scope of weapons it’s providing to Ukraine in a new $800 million package of military assistance. In Europe, gains for travel and consumer companies outweighed declines in the telecommunications and energy industries, leading the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 0.1% and Stoxx 50 up 0.3%. CAC 40 outperforms, adding 0.4%, FTSE 100 lags, dropping 0.2%. Atlantia jumped 4.9% in Milan after the Benetton family and Blackstone offered to buy out the Italian highway operator for 23 euros per share. Ericsson dropped 5.6% in Stockholm after its earnings missed estimates. Here are some of Europe's most notable movers: Wizz Air shares jump as much as 8.9% after it said it sees its 4Q operating result ahead of guidance provided at 3Q. Concorde says the low-cost carrier’s expectation to fly 30%-40% more compared with 2019 capacity in the next two quarters is “encouraging.” Holcim shares rise as much as 4.3%, most since March 29, following a Bloomberg report that the group is considering the sale of assets in India. Atlantia shares rise as much as 5.8% after Italy’s Benetton family and Blackstone have made a EU19b bid to buy out the infrastructure group, it follows Bloomberg News last week’s report that the firm was circled by potential suitors. Hermes shares advance as much as 4.6% after publishing 1Q sales that one analyst described as “spectacular.” Peers are also up with Richemont rose as much as +3% Ericsson shares fall as much as 9.2% after reporting adjusted operating profit that undershot average analyst estimates by 25%. While the first-quarter revenue came ahead of expectations, a “clear miss” on profits together with multiple new headwinds to margins may keep investors on the sidelines, according to Barclays. VW shares decline as much as 2.3% after the car-maker reported preliminary figures that Jefferies says are “overall negative.” UPM shares decline as much as 5.1% on Friday after the Finnish company said it has not been able to come to new collective labor agreements with the Paperworkers’ Union. Ashmore shares sink as much as 9.2%, the most since April 2020, after the emerging markets-focused asset manager reported 3Q net outflows of $3.7b, which analysts say were worse than consensus expectations. European bonds fell and the euro advanced as attention turns to the ECB, which is set to maintain its speedier withdrawal of stimulus. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks headed for a two-day gain amid growing expectations that China’s central bank will ease policy to support growth in the region’s biggest economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.8% as all sectors rose, with shares in mainland China leading the regionon hopes that the People’s Bank of China will cut its key policy rate soon. A 50-basis point, broad-based reduction in the reserve requirement ratio could also be confirmed as early as Friday, injecting 1.2 trillion yuan ($188 billion) of liquidity into the economy, Citigroup said. While an RRR cut “will help in terms of stabilizing expectations, it could be just an expedient measure as the economy urgently calls for more easing,” wrote Huatai Securities analysts including Yi Huan in a note. Asia’s cyclical and defensive shares climbed with SoftBank Group hauling up the gauge, as Mizuho Securities said the technology giant may sell some of its assets to improve its finances.  Japan’s main gauges were also among the top performers in Asia, rising for a second day, driven by advances in technology shares. Electronics makers were the biggest boost to the Topix, which gained 1%. Fast Retailing and Tokyo Electron were the largest contributors to a 1.2% rise in the Nikkei 225.  The Kospi index ended the day little changed after the Bank of Korea raised its seven-day repurchase rate by a quarter percentage point. China’s growth outlook has been a key pressure point for Asian shares as the country maintains its Covid Zero strategy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down about 10% in 2022, extending last year’s underperformance versus the S&P 500. “China’s dynamic zero-Covid policy could ravage the Chinese economy if lockdowns continue,” Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, wrote in a note. “Beyond the reduced demand for imports from China, an even more immediate effect is inflation given the world’s dependence on China’s production of intermediate goods.” In rates, yields are lower by as much as 2bp in 3- to 5-year sector, steepening 5s30s spread by about that much with long-end yields little changed; 10-year, lower by ~1bp at around 2.69%, outperforms bunds and gilts in the sector by 5bp-6bp. Treasuries were slightly richer across front-end and belly of the curve, steepening most curve spreads and outperforming European core rates ahead of ECB policy decision at 7:45am ET and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference. Focal points of U.S. session include retail sales data and three Fed speakers. Sifma has recommended a 2pm close ahead of Friday’s U.S. market holiday.   German curve bear-steepens with yields up 2.5-3bps across the back end. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund widening 2.9bps to 242.3bps. Cash USTs bull-steepen with the curve seeing ~2bps of riching from the 5y point out. U.K. curve bear-steepens with 30y yields rising over 3bps. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for a second day of losses, falling 0.1%. and the dollar fell against most of its Group-of 10 peers. CHF and AUD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, SEK and NZD outperform. The euro rose above $1.09 while yields on Bunds and Italian bonds advanced as money markets increased ECB rate hike bets ahead of the monetary policy decision.  Sweden’s krona strengthened against all of its G-10 peers and the nation’s sovereign bonds slumped, led by the front-end of the curve. Markets rushed to price in faster Riksbank tightening after its target measure, CPIF, rose to 6.1% on an annual basis in March. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected underlying prices to rise by 5.6%. The Australian dollar declined versus its New Zealand counterpart as the economy added fewer jobs than expected last month. Yen snapped a nine-day losing streak as U.S. yields continued to fall and players prepared for the long Easter weekend. Japanese government bonds followed Treasuries higher. BOJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe said that it’s desirable for foreign exchange rates to reflect economic fundamentals and move in a stable manner. In commodities, crude futures decline. WTI trades within Wednesday’s range, falling 0.7% to trade around $103. Brent falls 0.7% to $108. Most base metals trade in the red; LME zinc falls 1.1%, underperforming peers. LME aluminum outperforms, adding 1.1%. Gold weakens to around $1,972. The commodity-fueled jump in costs exacerbated by Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to ripple across the global economy and color market sentiment. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said inflation and the conflict were creating “significant” challenges. The firm was among the first of the big U.S. banks to report earnings. Looking to the day ahead, the main highlight will be the ECB’s latest policy decision. We’ll also hear from the Fed’s Williams, Mester and Harker. Data releases include US retail sales for March, the weekly initial jobless claims, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for April. Lastly, earnings releases are again financials heavy, with Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and UnitedHealth Group showcasing. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 4,437.75 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 457.19 MXAP up 0.6% to 175.12 MXAPJ up 0.4% to 580.08 Nikkei up 1.2% to 27,172.00 Topix up 1.0% to 1,908.05 Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 21,518.08 Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,225.64 Sensex down 0.4% to 58,338.93 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,523.43 Kospi little changed at 2,716.71 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.78% Euro up 0.2% to $1.0906 Brent Futures down 0.7% to $108.07/bbl Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,975.23 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.17% to 99.71 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Jumbo-sized interest rate hikes from Canada to New Zealand are boosting market confidence that central banks are on track to tame inflation, putting bonds back in investors’ focus Russian authorities are considering a step-by-step approach to rolling back the harsh capital controls imposed to stabilize markets after the invasion of Ukraine. Discussions this week focused on options that included extending the deadline for exporters to carry out mandatory conversions of their overseas earnings into rubles and lowering below 80% the share of foreign proceeds that companies are obliged to sell in the market, according to people informed on the matter Russia threatened to deploy nuclear weapons in and around the Baltic Sea region if Finland and Sweden join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as tensions fueled by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine spread Singapore’s central bank further tightened monetary settings and raised its inflation forecast, sending the currency higher as it seeks to fight cost pressures that threaten the recovery from the pandemic Chinese President Xi Jinping says his government will stick to its zero-tolerance approach to Covid even as public anger simmers in Shanghai and economic costs mount Copper and aluminum rose on signs China will loosen monetary policy to revive its virus-wracked economy, while zinc dipped but remained near the highest close since 2006 amid a global supply crunch A More detailed breakdown of global news from Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive after the gains on Wall St where risk appetite was supported by lower yields, although some bourses lagged on policy tightening. ASX 200 traded higher but with gains capped by cautiousness in the top-weighted financials sector after Bank of Queensland's shares failed to benefit post-earnings. Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 27,000 level with Japan's ruling coalition parties unveiling their draft relief proposals. Fast Retailing (9983 JT) 6-month (JPY): Net Profit 146.84bln, +38.7%; Operating Profit 189.3bln, +12.7%; Pretax Profit 212.6bln, +24%; Sees FY net income at 190bln (prev. guidance 175bln). KOSPI and Straits Times Index lagged after the BoK unexpectedly hiked rates by 25bps points and the MAS tightened FX-based policy, respectively. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat with speculation rife that the PBoC will lower rates tomorrow via an MLF rate cut, while Citi also sees the possibility for a RRR cut on Friday to free up around CNY 1.2tln cash. Top Asian News Chinese Stocks Advance as Key Rate Cut Seen as Soon as Friday TSMC Raises Sales Outlook Despite Fears Around Global Demand Sri Lanka Seeking Up to $4 Billion as IMF Talks Set to Start Uniqlo Owner Gets Serious About Conquering North American Market European bourses are firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, but off best levels as sentiment was hit on commentary from Russia's  Medvedev and as we await key bank earnings. Sectors in Europe are contained and are not exhibiting any pronounced theme thus far. US futures remain within narrow parameters at this point in time awaiting updates from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley before Retail Sales rounds off the week's key data; NQ +0.1%. Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk, on April 13th, offered to purchase all of the outstanding Twitter (TWTR) shares for USD 54.20/shr (vs prior close of USD 45.85); said it was his final offer. TWTR +13% in the pre-market. TSMC (2330 TW) Q1 (TWD): Revenue 491bln (prev. 362bln), Net Profit 202.7bln (exp. 184.7bln), Gross Margin 55.6%. Expects chip demand to continue in the long term, believes capacity will remain tight this year and expects another strong year. Working to address supply chain challenges with tool suppliers. Top European News ArcelorMittal Buys $1 Billion Voestalpine Plant in Texas VW Sees Profit Surge on $3.8 Billion Hedging Boost Valneva’s Covid Vaccine Gets U.K. Clearance After Rocky Ride Macron’s Lead Grows in French Election Polling Average FX: DXY almost full point down from midweek y-t-d peak as US Treasury yields continue to recede ahead of packed pre-Easter agenda index hovering above 95.500 vs 100.520 high. Kiwi rebounds after RBNZ letdown with tailwinds from AUD/NZD cross in wake of weaker than forecast Aussie jobs data, NZD/USD back on 0.6800 handle, AUD/USD straddling 0.7450. Euro takes advantage of Greenback retreat awaiting words of wisdom from ECB President Lagarde following policy announcement that is not expected to reveal changes; EUR/USD above 1.0900 vs close shave with 2022 low (1.0806) yesterday. Swedish Crown aloft as more consensus and Riksbank target topping inflation prints prompt earlier rate hike calls, EUR/SEK pivots 10.3000. Korean Won and Singapore Dollar boosted by shock BoK hike and MAS tightening, but Chinese Yuan backs off amidst growing speculation about PBoC easing possibly as soon as tomorrow. Fixed income: Eurozone bonds extend retreat from recovery peaks and underperformance ahead of the ECB. Bunds nearer 155.00 after rebound to just shy of 156.00, Gilts sub-119.00 vs 119.65 Liffe high and 10 year T-note closer to 120-19+ overnight bottom than 121-05+ top. US Treasuries down in sympathy with Gilts and curve a tad steeper after so-so long bond auction. Debt also defensive pre-long Easter weekend and busy line up of US data, including IJC and retail sales. Commodities: WTI and Brent are pressured and in relatively proximity to the session's troughs of USD 102.50/bbl and USD 107.01/bbl. Newsflow remains focused on Ukraine-Russia, particularly Medvedev's commentary, and the COVID situation in China as other cities are on edge re. Shanghai. Libyan National Unity Government adopted a plan to develop the oil sector to raise output to 1.4mln bpd, according to Reuters. Chinese refiners are seen cutting April's crude throughput by 900k BPD, around 6% of the 2021 average, via Reuters citing sources/analysts; expected to export 2mln/T of refined fuel in April, counter to earlier China plan to halt exports. Spot gold/silver are pressured and have lost the brief upside derived from earlier geopolitical developments, yellow metal at lows of USD 1967/oz. US Event Calendar 08:30: April Initial Jobless Claims, est. 170,000, prior 166,000 Continuing Claims, est. 1.5m, prior 1.52m 08:30: March Import Price Index YoY, est. 11.9%, prior 10.9%; MoM, est. 2.3%, prior 1.4% March Export Price Index YoY, est. 16.2%, prior 16.6%; MoM, est. 2.2%, prior 3.0% 08:30: March Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.3% March Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 0.2% March Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.1%, prior -1.2% 10:00: Feb. Business Inventories, est. 1.3%, prior 1.1% 10:00: April U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 59.0, prior 59.4; Current Conditions, est. 67.0, prior 67.2 Expectations, est. 53.6, prior 54.3 1 Yr Inflation, est. 5.5%, prior 5.4%;  5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 3.0% DB concludes the overnight wrap The EMR will be joining much of the market on holiday and will be back on Tuesday. A happy, restful long weekend to our loyal readers, and cheers to whatever it is you may be celebrating. Ahead of the holiday, the yield curve rose on the third day straight, with 2s10s having risen +42.5bps since its nadir at the start of the month. Global sovereign yields modestly fell, while US equities outperformed their European counterparts. The ECB meets today, where our economists are not expecting a change in tune. Starting with Ukraine, the US announced another round of aid, which will include heavy weaponry. Meanwhile, Finland has started the process to obtain NATO membership, and Swedish media report Sweden is considering the same. This, following President Biden labelling Russia’s excursions into Ukraine a genocide, the lack of negotiation progress, and the collective bracing for a renewed assault in the east, has cast a gloomy pall over the conflict. The International Energy Agency elsewhere warned that the disruption to Russian oil supply has yet to bind, with upwards of 3m bbls/day coming offline starting in May. The combined effect was to send Brent crude oil futures higher, which gained +4.14% yesterday to $108.78bbl, their highest level in two weeks following a +10.5% gain over the last two days. Sovereign yields had a subdued day by the standards of recent volatility, with yields falling across most jurisdictions and tenors. 10yr Treasuries were down -2.3bps, outpaced by the -5.7bp decline in 2yr yields that led to a further steepening of the curve. Most of the declines came in the New York morning, when reports of large block futures trades were relentlessly hitting the tapes. In Europe, 10yr bund, OAT, and BTP yields were -2.4bps, -3.5bps, and -3.4bps lower ahead of today’s ECB meeting, respectively. Both ECB meetings so far this year have surprised on the hawkish side of expectations, which comes as inflation has continued to accelerate to the fastest since the single currency’s formation, at +7.5% in March. Today, however, our economists preview (link here) that they’re not expecting much change to the ECB’s message. Instead, they believe with the new staff forecasts in June, the ECB will announce that APP purchases will end in July, ahead of liftoff in September. Equities were mixed in Europe, with the DAX falling -0.34%, while the STOXX 600 and CAC managed marginal gains of +0.03% and +0.07%, respectively. Farther from the conflict, the S&P 500 outperformed, climbing +1.12%, with mega-cap shares leading the way on falling discount rates, as the FANG+ climbed +2.06%. The S&P outperformance came amidst mixed results from some bellwether US financials, with JPM missing analyst earnings expectations while Blackrock sales came below expectations. In their release, JPM noted that they were increasing reserves to account for increased recession probabilities and to account for exposures to the war, two themes likely to suffuse earnings releases this season. In other central bank news, the Bank of Canada rose rates by +50bps to 1.00%, as was expected, and announced that their bond purchases would stop on April 25, a decision that contained some intrigue. The 50bp hike was the largest since 2000; Canada is no outlier in fighting multi-decade high inflation. The BoC said interest rates would need to rise further, as there was growing risk of higher inflation expectations becoming entrenched, a primal fear for any central banker. How much further? President Macklem suggested rates may need to surpass neutral if inflation doesn’t moderate, and the BoC happened to revise their neutral rate 25bps higher to a range between 2% and 3%. They also revised higher their inflation and GDP forecasts for 2022, revising down their 2023 growth forecast to 3.2%, which is nevertheless still above trend growth. US producer prices grew at a much faster rate than analysts were expecting, with final demand growing +11.2% year-on-year, versus expectations of +10.6%, while the core measure grew at +9.2%. Interesting enough, the elements of PPI that feed into core PCE were among those that printed to the soft side. Combined with the CPI data from the day before, our economists are expecting core PCE in March to grow at +0.25% Asian equity markets are following US stocks higher this morning, with most indices in the green, augmented by China signalling a potential impending RRR cut. US equity futures are pointing to a steady start today, with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.07%) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.16%) both a smidge higher. Brent crude futures are -0.61% down to $108.12/bbl. 10yr Treasury yields have declined -2.7bps to 2.67%, with the 2yr yields edging -2.9bps lower to 2.32%. The Bank of Korea got in on the global tightening overnight, lifting its base rate by +25bps to 1.5%, its highest since August 2019 and making it the fourth rate increase since August 2021. The increase came even without the formal appointment of a new governor Rhee Chang-yong, who is expected to begin his four-year term from April 19. With 10 days left until the French Presidential election, polls show a consistent lead for President Macron. His lead over Marine Le Pen expanded in 3 of the 4 polls released yesterday, yet still reflect a smaller expected margin of victory than his previous triumph. The spread of French 10yr yields over bunds narrowed to close beneath 50bps for the first time in over a week. Aside from the US PPI data, the other main release yesterday were the UK inflation numbers, where the year-on-year measure for headline CPI rose to +7.0% (vs. +6.7% expected). That’s the 6th consecutive month that the reading has surpassed the consensus expectation, whilst core CPI also surprised to the upside at +5.7% (vs. +5.3% expected). In turn, investors moved to raise the probability of a 50bp hike in May from the Bank of England to 28%, the highest in a couple of weeks. Our UK economist also put out an update after the report (link here) move above 9% year-on-year in the April data next month. To the day ahead now, the main highlight will be the ECB’s latest policy decision. We’ll also hear from the Fed’s Williams, Mester and Harker. Data releases include US retail sales for March, the weekly initial jobless claims, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for April. Lastly, earnings releases are again financials heavy, with Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and UnitedHealth Group showcasing. Tyler Durden Thu, 04/14/2022 - 07:25.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeApr 14th, 2022

Futures, Yields And Oil All Rise On Last Day Of Turbulent Week

Futures, Yields And Oil All Rise On Last Day Of Turbulent Week After several extremely volatile days, US equity futures are ending the week in the green (for now) with European equities snapping two days of declines sparked by the Federal Reserve’s plan for aggressive monetary-policy tightening, and Asian stocks trading higher. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures trimmed earlier gains to trade 0.3% higher as traders weighed the latest developments about the war in Ukraine. Contracts on U.S. stock benchmarks trim earlier gains as traders weigh developments about the war in Ukraine.Nasdaq 100 futures flat; S&P 500 futures +0.1%; Dow Jones futures +0.2%. The dollar rose for a 7th consecutive week and US Treasuries sold off across the curve; gold and bitcoin were flat. Oil was steady after three days of losses stoked by plans to release millions of barrels of crude from strategic reserves and China’s demand-sapping virus outbreak. Markets had a subdued session yesterday after sinking more than 4% in the previous two days as hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve sent Treasury yields surging. Among notable premarket moves, Robinhood slid 3% after Goldman Sachs, not too long ago the lead underwriter on the company's IPO, cut their rating on the stock to sell, saying softening retail engagement levels and profitability concerns will likely limit any outperformance. Some other notable premarket movers: Alcoa (AA US) is 1.2% lower as Credit Suisse analyst Curt Woodworth trims his recommendation to neutral as he views LME aluminum prices near peak levels. Quidel (QDEL US) gained in extended trading Thursday after it posted preliminary revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. CrowdStrike (CRWD US) advanced 4.1%. Analysts responded positively after management set a framework to reach $5 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by 2026, during the cybersecurity company’s investor briefing. WD-40 (WDFC US) is poised to gain after producing a “solid” beat in the second quarter, Jefferies said, adding that an increased market share and new product launches would support volume growth of 3% in 2022. Kura Sushi (KRUS US) shares rose in postmarket trading after the restaurant chain reported a year-over-year jump in quarterly sales. ACM Research (ACMR US) edged lower in extended trading Thursday after saying in a release its first quarter revenue would be “significantly below” expectations, but reiterated full-year revenue guidance for 2022. U.S. stocks are on course to snap a three-week winning streak with investors shedding risk assets following indications from the Fed of a faster-than-expected pace of tightening in monetary policy. Concerns are also growing about the impact of high inflation and slowing economic growth on corporate earnings. The two-year Treasury yield rose five basis points and the 10-year yield climbed one point, reversing some of the curve steepening seen in the wake of the Fed minutes Wednesday, which outlined plans to pare the central bank’s balance sheet by more than $1 trillion a year alongside interest-rate hikes. Global equities are nursing losses for the week as markets grapple with the Fed’s campaign against elevated price pressures, Russia’s grinding war in Ukraine and China’s Covid travails. The lockdown in Shanghai -- which recorded more than 21,000 new daily virus cases -- has become one of President Xi Jinping’s biggest challenges. Expectations are growing that China will take steps to support its economy. “Stocks have had a little bit of a harder time this week digesting the fact that interest rates are going to be higher” amid a major shift in expectations around monetary policy, Anthony Saglimbene, global market strategist at Ameriprise Financial Inc., said on Bloomberg Television. Still, U.S. equities saw a second straight week of inflows at $1.5 billion, with large-cap and growth stocks outperforming small-cap and value sectors, according to Bank of America strategists. Marija Veitmane, a senior strategist at State Street Global Markets, also said stocks still appeared to be the safest option. “Cash gives you nothing with 7% inflation, bonds just had one of the worse quarters in history, and then if you look at stocks, we still have decent earnings outlook, and to me the biggest attraction is really strong balance sheets,” she said on Bloomberg TV. In the latest news out of Ukraine, dozens were killed Friday morning as Russian troops allegedly bombed civilians waiting at a train station to be evacuated from the Donetsk region. Meanwhile, U.S. officials warned that the war may last for weeks, months or even years, as Kyiv’s foreign minister pleaded for urgent military assistance. Here are the latest Ukraine war developments: Ukraine intends to establish up to 10 humanitarian corridors on Friday, those leaving Mariupol will need to use private vehicles. Ukrainian advisor Podolyak says negotiations with Russia continue online constantly, but the mood changed after Bucha events, via Reuters. Kremlin says it does not understand EU concerns about European countries paying for Russian gas in RUB, adds Commission President von der Leyen probably needs more information. On planned EU ban of Russian coal, says coal is in high demand. Special operation in Ukraine could be completed in the foreseeable future, given aims are being achieved and work is being carried out by peace negotiators and the military. EU ready to release EUR 500mln for arms to Ukraine, according to AFP citing EU chief. Russia says it has destroyed a training centre for foreign mercenaries within Ukraine, was located north of Odesa, via Tass. Japan's Industry Ministry plans to reduce Russian coal imports gradually while looking for alternative suppliers, according to Reuters. Ukraine PM says they have large stocks of grain, cereals and vegetable oil. Are able to provide themselves with food; this year's harvest will be 20% less YY. Ukraine gas grid warns that Russian actions could impact gas flows to Europe, via Reuters. On Thursday, St Louis Fed president James Bullard said he prefers boosting the policy rate to 3%-3.25% in the second half of 2022. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and his Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic said they favor raising rates to neutral while monitoring the economy’s performance. The steepening in the Treasury yield curve contrasts with the flattening and inversions that have vexed markets this year. The two-year rate topped the 10-year last week for the first time since 2019, a possible warning of recession. “We’re seeing a tactical re-steepening right now but the curve is going to continue to flatten,” Kelsey Berro, fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “That’s because the Fed has told us, we’d like to get to neutral expeditiously. On top of that, they may need to tighten beyond neutral. Front-end yields can still go higher.” In Europe, Euro Stoxx 50 rallies over 1.8% before stalling while the Stoxx 600 index climbed 1.2% but drifted off best levels as investors took advantage of beaten-down stock valuations with energy, banks and autos the strongest-performing sectors. Banks outperformed as Banco BPM SpA surged after Credit Agricole SA bought a 9.2% stake in the Italian lender. An Asia-Pacific share index eked out a small increase.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Scout24 shares rise as much as 17%, the most intraday since December 2018, after a report that Hellman & Friedman, EQT and Permira have discussed taking the firm private. Banco BPM shares rise as much as 17% after Credit Agricole bought a 9.2% stake in the Italian lender, with Bank of America saying the deal is a reminder that real value should be based on fundamentals. Sodexo shares jump as much as 7.4%, their biggest single-day gain in a month, after RBC Capital Markets upgrades the French caterer to outperform from sector perform. K+S gains as much as 10% after JPMorgan double-upgraded the shares to overweight from underweight, seeing a very positive environment for fertilizers amid supply disruptions and high energy prices. Atlantia shares rise as much as 4.5% following a report in a Italian newspaper that the Benetton family and Blackstone may start their takeover offer for Atlantia at more than EU22 per share. Saab rise as much as 5% as SEB upgrades the shares to buy from hold on the Swedish defense firm’s sales potential in the coming decade in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Moncler shares rise as much as 4.2% after Barclays upgrades the Italian luxury company to overweight, citing an “attractive” defensive profile in the current environment. Genmab fall as much as 10%, the most since September 2020, after saying a tribunal decided in favor of Janssen Biotech over two issues surrounding the cancer drug daratumumab (Darzalex). Ahead of this weekend's French election, Macron's lead is shrinking: the current President led his rivals in the April 10 election with 26.2% support, down from 27.2% a day earlier, according to a polling average calculated by Bloomberg on April 8. Macron was 3.5 percentage points ahead of second-placed Marine Le Pen, down from 4.1 points. Asian stocks edged higher on Friday, poised to snap three days of declines as traders assessed the prospect of policy easing by Beijing.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased early losses of as much as 0.4% to climb 0.2%. Chinese property and infrastructure-related stocks surged on hopes for fiscal as well as monetary easing as the government seeks to prop up growth.   For the week, the Asian benchmark was down 2% as investors turned cautious on risk assets after latest comments from the Federal Reserve suggested aggressive tightening lies ahead. Tech shares were hit hard in particular, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific Information Technology Index losing 4% this week, on track for its worst performance since end-January. “There appears to be speculation that monetary easing by the PBOC might be imminent,” said Kazutaka Kubo, senior economist at Okasan Securities. There are also expectations that once lockdowns are over, the economy could be supported by pent-up demand, he added.  Chinese authorities have repeatedly vowed to support the economy and markets in thet past few weeks, as rising Covid-19 infections and lockdowns darken the outlook for growth. The pledges have spurred bets that some form of monetary easing may come soon.  Movements in most national benchmarks in the region were modest on Friday, gaining less than 1%. Stocks in the Philippines and Indonesia outperformed, while Singapore shares fell.  Indian stocks gained after the Reserve Bank of India kept borrowing costs at a record low, while India’s 10-year bond yield hit 7% - the highest since 2019 - as the nation’s central bank boosted an inflation forecast. The central bank also announced the start of policy normalization as the pandemic’s impact fades. The S&P BSE Sensex climbed 0.7% to 59,447.18 in Mumbai to complete a second week of gains, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index rose 0.8%. Gauges of small- and mid-sized companies gained 1% and 0.9%, respectively. The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy panel held the benchmark rate at 4%, in line with predictions of all 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank will start focusing on withdrawal of banking liquidity accommodation to target inflation but such a move would be “multi-year” and carried out without disrupting the markets. “Equity markets will like the RBI’s continued focus on growth and its commitment to an accommodative stance,” said Abhay Agarwal, a fund manager at Mumbai-based Piper Serica Advisors Pvt.  The RBI’s commentary means adequate flow of liquidity will continue and immediate beneficiaries will be consumers who are borrowing to purchase real estate and autos, he added. All but one of 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. advanced, led by a gauge of power companies. Reliance Industries Ltd. was a key gainer on the Sensex, which saw 22 of its 30 components advance. The RBI has comforted markets by refraining from being aggressive, unlike its global peers, and by ensuring that the liquidity withdrawal will be gradual, Yesha Shah, head of equity research at Samco Securities wrote in a note.  “On the growth front, one can assume that the central bank expects private investment to ramp up now that capacity utilization has improved further,” she said, adding the policy lays the framework for a possible rate increase in coming reviews. Australian stocks advanced - the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.5% to close at 7,478.00 - supported by materials and industrial stocks. GrainCorp shares surged to a record high, after the firm upgraded its FY22 earnings guidance as high levels of rain in Australia lay a path for a bumper crop.  Platinum Asset plunged to an all-time low after the company reported net outflows of A$222 million in March. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index was little changed at 12,066.27. In rates, Treasuries fell across the curve, with the front-end of the Treasuries curve pressured lower, flattening 2s10s spread by ~5bp as 2-year yields trade more than 7bp cheaper on the day at ~2.54%. S&P 500 futures near top of Thursday’s range, following bigger advance for European stocks after three straight declines. Yields across long-end of the curve are little changed on the day, as flattening extends out to 5s30s spread which is tighter by ~4bp; 10-year yields around 2.683%, cheaper by 2.5bp vs Thursday close; bunds and gilts outperform by 1bp-2bp in the sector. Bunds reversed opening gains, adding to a three-day run of declines; French debt underperformed bunds ahead of presidential elections beginning Sunday. The German curve bull-flattens, richening 2bps across the back end. Peripheral spreads widen to core with Italy underperforming. In FX, Bloomberg dollar index advanced a seventh consecutive day and neared the strongest level since July 2020 as the greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Norwegian krone. The euro pared losses after touching a one-month low against the dollar in early London trading. The pound fell to the lowest in more than three weeks as bets for aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve boost the dollar. Gilts rose across the curve as U.S. Treasury yields stabilized following the recent selloff. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were the worst-performing G-10 currencies; Australia’s yield curve steepened following a similar move in Treasuries on Thursday. Most Japanese government bonds rose, thanks to support from the central bank’s regular purchase operations. The yen briefly reversed early an Asia session loss after an ex-BOJ official said there’s likelihood of a policy shift as soon as this summer. Bitcoin is contained and unable to derive traction either way from the broader risk tone. Strike payment platform launches Shopify (SHOP) integration, which allows merchants to accept Bitcoin (BTC), according to Bloomberg. In commodities, crude futures trade within Thursday’s range; WTI holds above $96, Brent stalls near $102. Spot gold holds steady near $1,930/oz. Most base metals trade well: LME zinc and lead outperforming, tin lags. To the day ahead now. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s de Cos, Centeno, Panetta, Stournaras, Makhlouf and Herodotou. Italian retail sales for February and Canadian employment for March round out this week’s data. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 4,517.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.4% to 461.27 MXAP up 0.2% to 176.33 MXAPJ up 0.3% to 584.66 Nikkei up 0.4% to 26,985.80 Topix up 0.2% to 1,896.79 Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 21,872.01 Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,251.85 Sensex up 0.9% to 59,558.63 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,477.99 Kospi up 0.2% to 2,700.39 Brent Futures up 1.2% to $101.76/bbl Gold spot down 0.0% to $1,931.38 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.14% to 99.89 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.68% Euro down 0.1% to $1.0865 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The Bank of Russia delivered a surprise cut in its key interest rate Friday, reversing some of the steep increase it made after the invasion of Ukraine as the ruble recovered. The central bank lowered the rate to 17% from 20% and said further cuts could be made at upcoming meetings if conditions permit EU countries agreed to ban coal imports from Russia, the first time the bloc’s sanctions have targeted Moscow’s crucial energy revenues. Japan is also looking to curb imports, in what could be a shift in policy from one of the world’s largest energy buyers The EU is aiming to lock in progress on trade and technology disputes with the U.S. during President Joe Biden’s first term amid concerns that any gains could otherwise be easily reversed The relationship between Australia’s equities and currency has become the closest in a decade as commodity prices surge. The 180-day correlation between the country’s stock benchmark and the Australian dollar has climbed to the highest level since late 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The strengthened ties come as rallies in materials from oil to iron ore have boosted both the nation’s equities and the Aussie The ECB will look past threats to economic growth from the war in Ukraine, ending asset purchases in the summer and setting the stage for a first interest-rate increase in more than a decade in December, according to a survey of economists Junk bond sales across Europe are experiencing their longest drought in more than 10 years, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the prospect of rising interest rates neuter risk appetite A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk: Asia-Pacific stocks were choppy and eventually conformed to a mixed picture; some weakness was seen shortly after the Chinese cash open. ASX 200 bucked the trend and was propped up by its energy and gold names. Nikkei 225 was choppy and moved in tandem with action in USD/JPY whilst the KOSPI was weighed on by its chip and telecoms sectors. Hang Seng remained pressured by losses across its large constituents - Alibaba and JD.com. Shanghai Comp swung between gains and losses but overall remained supported by reports from China's Securities Journal which noted of a potential PBoC RRR in Q2. Top Asian News Hong Kong Tycoons Heed China, Endorse John Lee to lead City Chinese Tech Stocks Fall as Tencent Shuts Game Streaming Site Abu Dhabi’s IHC Invests $2 Billion in Billionaire Adani’s Empire ADDX Rolls Out Private Market Services for Wealth Managers European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.5%, bouncing in a morning of quiet newsflow with the broader tone modestly risk-on. Albeit, benchmarks are still negative on the week and some way from earlier WTD peaks; unsurprisingly, sectors are all in the green with defensive-bias names lagging. Stateside, futures are similarly in the green, ES +0.2%, though magnitudes are more contained ahead of a limited US schedule to round off the week. Top European News U.S. Sanctions Russian Miner Producing 30% of World’s Diamonds Atlantia Gains After Reports of Offer Price Above EU22/Share Generali CEO Says He Won’t Change Plan Challenged by Investors Baader Downgrades Six Chemical Firms, Citing Ukraine War In FX: DXY touches 100.000 as US Treasury yields continue to soar and curve steepen, but unable to break barrier. Kiwi underperforms awaiting NZIER Q1 survey, while Aussie holds up better after hawkish warning in RBA FSR; NZD/USD around 0.6950, AUD/USD nearer 0.7460. Yen sub-124.00 as Japanese export supply is absorbed, Euro supported by bids circa 1.0850 and Sterling treading water above 1.3000. Rouble relatively resilient in the face of 300 bp CBR rate reduction as it remains above pre-conflict highs. Fixed income: Choppy trade in bonds approaching the end of another very bearish week. Bunds and Gilts nurse losses mostly above par around 157.00 and 120.00 handles vs fresh cycle lows of 156.40 and 119.83. US Treasuries most seeing red, but curve less steep in correction after hawkish FOMC minutes and Fed commentary, via Brainard and Bullard especially Central Banks: RBA Financial Stability Review: important that borrowers are prepared for an increase interest rates; global asset markets are vulnerable to larger-than-expected rate increases, via Reuters. RBI leave rates unchanged as expected, retains "accommodative" stance as expected; will focus on withdrawing accommodation going forward. RBI is to restore LAF corridor to 50bps and floor to be constituted by SDF, according to Reuters. CBRT April survey sees Turkish End-Year CPI at 46.44% (prev. 40.47%) CNB Minutes (March): Dedek and Michl voted in the minority for stable rates. Board assessed risks and uncertainties of winter forecast as being markedly inflationary, particularly in short-term CBR cuts its Key Rate to 17.00% (prev. 20.00%) as of April 11th; holds open the prospect of further key rate reduction at its upcoming meetings. In commodities, WTI and Brent are bolstered amid broader sentiment, though crude/geopolitical specific developments have been limited In-fitting with equities, the benchmarks are negative on the week and some way shy of best levels as such. New York will suspend the state gas tax from June 1st to December 31st, according to Reuters. Barclays raises oil forecasts by USD 7-8/bb assuming no material disruption in Russian supplies beyond Q2 2022, according to Reuters. Spot gold is marginally firmer, but, remains drawn to USD 1930/oz after marginally eclipsing the level overnight; base metals bid in-line with sentiment. US Event Calendar 10:00: Feb. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 4.0% 10:00: Feb. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 2.1%, prior 2.1% DB's Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap Yesterday’s ECB minutes reinforced what we learned from the March FOMC minutes and soon-to-be Vice Chair Brainard earlier this week – there are no doves in fox holes – by casting doubt on the likelihood of inflation returning to target this year. We also heard from St. Louis Fed President Bullard, the hawk leading the charge, who called for a fed funds rates above 3% this year. That would beckon a faster pace of hikes along with more aggregate tightening. Regional Presidents Bostic and Evans, non-voters each, meanwhile, want to get rates to neutral. The tighter path of global policy continued to drive sovereign yields higher and equity indices lower. Market-implied ECB policy rates by the end of the year increased +6.0bps to +62.3bps, the highest level this cycle. Sovereign yields rose to multi-year highs of their own, with those on 10yr bund (+3.4bps), OATs (+4.4bps) and BTPs (+3.5bps) moving higher, with 10yr breakevens falling in Germany (-1.9bps) and France (-0.7bps) for the first time in five days, while Italian breakevens were essentially flat (+0.2bps). Meanwhile, fed funds futures by end-2022 staged a slight retreat, falling -1.2bps to 2.50%, albeit +10bps higher than a week ago. While the probability of a +50bp hike in May remained steady at 85.4%. 2yr yields fell in line, declining -1.2bps, while 10yr Treasuries gained +6.0bps, leaving the curve at +19.2bps. If you’re up on the yield curve discourse, you’ll know the Fed discounts the signal coming from 2s10s, instead preferring shorter-dated measures of the yield curve, which wound up flattening yesterday. Yesterday’s yield curve steepening should not be viewed in a vacuum. The 2s10s curve has taken a 58.3bp round trip over the last two weeks, falling from +23.1bps two weeks ago, to -8.0bps last Friday, to +19.2bps at yesterday’s close. The fundamental outlook hasn’t changed dramatically over that time span. Instead, this likely reflects the elevated rates volatility environment we currently sit in. This, all before QT has even begun. Real Treasury yields continue to march higher in the back end, with 10yr real yields gaining +5.3bps to -0.19%, their highest level since March 2020, having gained +25.1bps this week alone, and +91.3bps YTD. Despite higher rates and more restrictive language, the S&P 500 ended the day +0.43% higher, after losing -2.21% the previous two sessions. The S&P 500 is now -5.58% YTD following the massive repricing of Fed expectations, while the Bloomberg Financial Conditions index is just a hair tighter than the post-2010 average. Monetary policy may need to adjust tighter yet to engineer the demand slowdown commensurate with a return of inflation to target. European equities were modestly lower, with the STOXX 600 slipping -0.21% and the DAX down -0.52%. The CAC (-0.57%) underperformed the STOXX 600 for the seventh consecutive session, on the back of growing Presidential election jitters. Polls between President Macron and his closest rival, Marine Le Pen, tightened. In particular, one poll (caveat emptor) from Atlas actually put Le Pen marginally ahead of Macron in a head-to-head runoff for the first time, by 50.5%-49.5%. The news immediately saw the French 10yr spread over bund yields widen in response, ending the day at 54.2bps, its widest since March 2020. While one poll a race does not make, it’s worth noting the broader poll narrowing over the last month. That has seen Macron’s lead in the first round over Le Pen go from 30%-17% a month ago (according to Politico’s average), to just 27%-22% now. In the second round, polls are likewise pointing to a tight contest, with Macron ahead of Le Pen by 52-48% (Ifop) and 53%-47% (Ipsos). For those looking for more details on the presidential race, DB’s Marc de-Muizon put out a guide yesterday (link here), where he looks at the current state of play in the election, the main aspects of both Macron and Le Pen’s programmes, as well as some potential challenges for both candidates. Back to the US, in a rare show of bi-partisanship, the Senate voted 100-0 to discontinue normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus and to ban Russian oil imports. Brent crude prices fell below $100/bbl for the first time since mid-March intraday, ultimately falling -0.48% to close at $100.58/bbl. The EU also moved to include a Russian coal embargo in its fifth round of sanctions. The opprobrium was global, with the UN General Assembly voting to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council following its human rights violations, the first such suspension since Libya in 2011. On the ground, the Kremlin admitted to enduring heavy troop losses, and while the locus of the war still seems set to shift eastward, Ukrainian commanders have their guard up for a renewed assault on Kyiv. Elsewhere, Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson was confirmed to the Supreme Court. It’s expected the Senate will now turn to approving President Biden’s nominations for the Fed Board of Governors later this month, which will still have one empty seat following Sarah Bloom Raskin withdrawing her nomination. Asian equity markets this morning aren’t matching Wall Street’s resilience from yesterday. The Hang Seng (-0.57%) is leading the moves lower with the Nikkei (-0.08%), Kospi (-0.10%), Shanghai Composite (-0.06%) and CSI (-0.10%) all slightly on the wrong foot. Along with tighter global monetary policy, China’s Covid outbreak is worsening and dragging on sentiment. US stock futures are unperturbed, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures virtually unchanged. Meanwhile, the aforementioned rates volatility continues to rear its head, with the curve snapping back flatter as we go to press, with 2yr Treasuries +4.2bps higher and the 10yr a bit softer at -0.5bps. Oil prices are extending their decline this morning with Brent futures (-0.74%) sliding below $100/bbl. On the data side, Japan’s current account swung back to surplus in February to +¥1.6 trillion, following a -¥1.2 trillion deficit in January - the second-biggest deficit on record. The main release yesterday came from the US weekly initial jobless claims, which fell to their lowest level since 1968, with just 166k initial claims in the week through April 2 (vs. 200k expected). In addition, the previous week was revised down to 171k from 202k, which left the smoother 4-week moving average at 170k, the lowest ever in the entire data series going back to 1967. Euro Area retail sales grew by +0.3% in February (vs. +0.5% expected), and German industrial production grew by +0.2% that same month, in line with expectations. To the day ahead now. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s de Cos, Centeno, Panetta, Stournaras, Makhlouf and Herodotou. Italian retail sales for February and Canadian employment for March round out this week’s data. Tyler Durden Fri, 04/08/2022 - 07:51.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeApr 8th, 2022

Futures, Yields Rise On Ceasefire Hopes As Ukraine-Russia Talks Resume

Futures, Yields Rise On Ceasefire Hopes As Ukraine-Russia Talks Resume Following yesterday's surge in stocks following an FT report that Russia has eased on its Ukraine demands and the Russian ceasefire document no longer contains any discussion of three of Russia’s initial core demands - “denazification”, “demilitarisation”, and legal protection for the Russian language in Ukraine - overnight futures have extended their "feel good" rise as peace negotiations which resumed on Tuesday in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine stoked a rally in global equities, and hit session highs after Ukrainian negotiator Podoliak noted that a ceasefire is being discussed with Russia adding a press conference is to be expected later. Ukraine is striving for a cease-fire agreement in talks with Russian negotiators that started Tuesday in Turkey, setting a “minimum” goal of an improvement in the humanitarian situation. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.6% while S&P 500 futures gained 0.5% and Dow futures 0.4%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index also advanced, with auto and consumer stocks outperforming. Oil fluctuated as investors weighed the impact of China’s mobility curbs against a Covid resurgence on demand; the dollar dropped. Treasuries bear flattened, outperforming bunds and gilts as haven demand continues to be unwound; the 10Y TSY yield rose to 2.50%. Apple headed higher in premarket trading and was set for its longest winning streak since 2003, in which the iPhone maker has added about $407 billion in market capitalization. A revival in the so-called meme stock rally also set GameStop on course for its 11th straight day of gains as retail traders bid up OTM calls sparking yet another gamma squeeze and proving that the market remains hopelessly broken. Here are some other notable premarket mvoers: Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) shares drop 7.2% after the dining and entertainment venue operator reported earnings per share for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. While analysts pointed to the impact of the Omicron variant of the Covid-19 virus on the company’s fourth-quarter, they saw reassuring signs in the firm’s margins and recent improvements. Progenity (PROG US) falls 20% in U.S. premarket trading after the firm late on Monday reported a wider annual loss for 2021 than expected. Small biotech and pharma companies rally in U.S. premarket trading, rebounding from this year’s declines, as investor appetite for riskier assets and so-called meme stocks grows. Brooklyn Immunotherapeutics (BTX US) +8.7%, Alaunos Therapeutics (TCRT US) +6.5%. CVS Health (CVS US) shares drop 1.7% in U.S. premarket trading after Deutsche Bank downgrades the pharmacy health care provider to hold from buy amid rising risks. U.S. stocks have rebounded in March as the Federal Reserve issued an upbeat outlook on economic growth, with investors also looking past surging inflation and a historic rout in Treasuries. Paradoxically, technology-heavy stocks, which tend to sell off when interest rates are rising, have in fact outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 as traders focused instead on differentiating between profitable and unprofitable firms.  Even more paradoxically as a new cold war rages, the Nasdaq 100 is on track for its biggest monthly gain since October 2021. "The resilience of global stocks given the cocktail of risks facing the global economy is truly impressive, but this stoicism is likely to face continuing tests as the impact of mounting prices and the actions of central banks continue to feed through, not to mention the ongoing geopolitical concerns,” Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell Ltd., said in emailed comments. Meanwhile, government bond yields rose, with bets on aggressive U.S. monetary tightening hurting shorter maturity Treasuries. Inversions along the curve, where some short-term rates exceed longer tenor yields, point to concerns about a looming economic downturn as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates to quell high inflation. Hopes of a cease-fire in Ukraine-Russia talks also bolstered European equities. The Stoxx 600 jumped 1.3%, with automakers, consumer products and services and technology shares leading gains. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Carlsberg shares advance as much as 4.5% as analysts welcomed the brewer’s decision to exit Russia, with Credit Suisse seeing potential for a re-rating for a stock battered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Adyen shares gain as much as 6% after JPMorgan said the company could boost its outlook for long-term margin to more than 70% from 65%, placing the firm on “positive catalyst watch.” Currys Plc shares rise as much as 12% following a so-called uncooked mention in a Betaville blog post regarding potential takeover interest in the electrical goods retailer. Euromoney shares climb as much as 4.9% after Investec raises its recommendation to buy from hold, citing a disconnect between the share price and the media firm’s operational performance. Schibsted shares rise as much as 6.6%, the most since March 16, after its largest shareholder, Blommenholm Industrier, buys 1 million Class A shares at NOK222.5 each. Nordex shares rise as much as 8.3% after the wind-turbine maker’s new FY22 guidance is ahead of expectations, Jefferies says; wind power peers Vestas and Orsted gain, too. Barclays falls as much as 5.7% in London following news that an unnamed investor sold about 575m shares at a discount. Stock is also downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan. Maersk, Kuehne + Nagel and Hapag-Lloyd all drop after Deutsche Bank downgrades several logistics and container stocks due to the indirect consequences of the war in Ukraine. Sanofi shares fall as much as 2.5% after the firm provided a new sales forecast for its drug Dupixent, with both Morgan Stanley and Citi noting guidance is slightly behind expectations. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced after a three-day loss, as a decline in oil prices eased concerns over corporate earnings and Chinese tech stocks extended gains into a second day. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7% with Tencent, Toyota Motor, and Alibaba among the biggest contributors to the advance. Apart from Hong Kong, where gains in tech and health names drove gauges higher, equities in Japan and Australia outperformed, with the former benefiting from a weaker yen and the latter rising ahead of a budget release after markets closed. Investors are waiting to see how the cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine proceed, while assessing the repercussions to businesses from the lockdown in Shanghai. The risk of Chinese firms, especially those in the property sector, facing trading halts is weighing on sentiment as a key earnings deadline looms.  Oil Extends Losses on China Demand Concerns Ahead of OPEC+ Meet “A V-shaped recovery in stock markets looks difficult,” said Kim Kyung Hwan, a strategist at Hana Financial Investment in Seoul.  “The worst is behind in terms of investor sentiment, but issues like Covid lockdowns and the war in Ukraine aren’t resolved, traders are just getting used to them.” Despite Tuesday’s gain, the benchmark Asian measure is poised for a third straight monthly loss. It’s also lagging behind the S&P 500 index in recent performance Japanese equities rose, powered by exporters after the yen plunged by the most since March 2020 against the U.S. dollar on the Bank of Japan’s easing measures. Electronics and auto makers were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which rose 0.9%. Fast Retailing and SoftBank Group were the largest contributors to a 1.1% gain in the Nikkei 225. The yen was slightly higher after weakening 1.5% against the greenback on Monday. “Makers of export-related products like automobiles should rise with the BOJ’s continuous bond-purchase operations expected to continue weakening the yen,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, a strategist at Nomura Asset Management. The drop in oil prices is a “relief” for Japan as an importer, and growth stocks should benefit from the slowing rise in long-term U.S. interest rates, he added Indian stocks rose as a drop in crude prices along with prospects of more cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine supported buying sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex climbed 0.6% to 57,943.65, in Mumbai, a second day of gains, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index also advanced by a similar magnitude. Housing Development Finance Corp. advanced 3.1% and was the biggest boost to the Sensex, which had 20 of the 30 shares trading higher.   Fifteen of 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. rose, led by a gauge of healthcare stocks. Price of Brent crude, a major import for India, hovered around $113 a barrel, down about 6% this week.  Lower oil is supporting gains across economies as a lockdown in parts of China after a resurgence in Covid cases raised possibilities of lower demand, Mitul Shah, head of research at Reliance Securities, wrote in a note. “The Russia-Ukraine conflict and inflationary pressures continue to keep the market wavered,” he said.    In rates, Treasuries extended bear-flattening move with yields cheaper by ~5bp across front-end of the curve, following wider losses for bunds and gilts in early European session. U.S. 10-year yields around 2.49%, higher by ~3bp on the day with bunds and gilts trading cheaper by 6bp and 4bp in the sector; Treasury curve-flattening persists with 2s10s spread tighter by 4.5bp as front-end continues to underperform. The week's auction cycle concludes with $47b 7-year note sale at 1pm ET, following Monday double supply of 2- and 5-year notes; WI 7-year around 2.60% is above auction stops since 2019 and ~69.5bp cheaper than February’s stop-out. IG dollar issuance slate includes two 3Y SOFR deals; two deals priced $4b Monday, and early calls for April are for around $100b of issuance. In Europe, fixed income trades heavy in the risk-on environment. Bund and Treasury curves bear-flatten with U.S. 5s30s remaining inverted and 2s10s flattening a further ~5bps near 7bps. Germany’s 2y yield trades ~3bps shy of a 0% yield. Gilts bear-steepen, cheapening 7-8bps across the back end. Peripheral spreads tighten modestly. In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot drops 0.3%, CHF is the weakest in G-10 sending EUR/CHF 0.6% higher on to a 1.03-handle. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index hovered as the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers; Scandinavian currencies were the best performers while the Swiss franc and the pound were the worst. The yen inched up after posting is biggest drop in over a year Monday; the currency may be heading for its worst monthly performance versus the dollar since November 2016, yet trading in the options space is much more balanced. Super-long Japanese government bonds dropped while benchmark 10-year notes were supported by the central bank’s purchase operations; The Bank of Japan offered to buy an unlimited amount of 5- to 10-year government notes for a second time on Tuesday Cable gave up an early advance to fall to an almost two-week low; gilts fell. London’s Metropolitan Police are set to issue at least 20 fines to government officials close to the prime minister who broke U.K. lockdown rules, although this tranche of fines is unlikely to touch Prime Minister Boris Johnson Australia’s three-year bonds dropped after retail sales beat economists’ estimates, with the gap over 10-year notes narrowing to the least since March 2020 In commodities, crude futures hold in the green, recouping Asia’s weakness. WTI regains a $106-handle, Brent trades near $113. Spot gold extends losses, dropping ~$13 before stalling near $1,910/oz. Base metals trade poorly with LME nickel underperforming Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the FHFA house price index for January, the Case-Shiller home price index for January, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for March, and the JOLTS job openings for February. Over in Europe there’s also French consumer confidence for March, Germany’s GfK consumer confidence reading for April and UK mortgage approvals for February. Lastly, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Harker. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 4,590.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 459.14 MXAP up 0.7% to 179.73 MXAPJ up 0.6% to 586.67 Nikkei up 1.1% to 28,252.42 Topix up 0.9% to 1,991.66 Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 21,927.63 Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,203.94 Sensex up 0.2% to 57,724.92 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,464.26 Kospi up 0.4% to 2,741.07 German 10Y yield little changed at 0.63% Euro little changed at $1.0995 Brent Futures up 1.3% to $113.95/bbl Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,916.02 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 99.04 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said the U.S. and its allies will tighten the sanction screws on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, singling out industries integral to Moscow’s war effort As NATO allies discuss the terms of any potential peace deal to be struck between Russia and Ukraine, signs of strategic splits are emerging from within their ranks Policymakers in Japan on Tuesday sought to balance a commitment to ultra-loose monetary policy in a world of rising interest rates without letting the yen tumble further toward a 20-year low Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki highlighted the need to check if a weaker yen is harming the economy, as he indicated heightened government concern over the currency’s recent slide The additional increase in energy prices resulting from the war in Ukraine pushed inflation significantly higher in March, European Central Bank Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez De Cos says Key OPEC members said oil prices would be even more volatile if not for the group’s strategy and that the U.S. must trust what it’s doing, as calls from major importers for higher production grow Russia has made a $102 million interest payment as the world’s biggest energy exporter continues to service its foreign bonds despite financial isolation after the invasion of Ukraine North Korea looks set to detonate its first nuclear bomb in more than four years, as the U.S.’s sanctions disputes with Russia and China make further United Nations penalties against the country unlikely More detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia Pac stocks traded mostly higher following the gains in the US where growth stocks spearheaded a recovery and with a decline in oil prices conducive for risk. ASX 200 was led by strength in tech and consumer stocks heading into the Budget announcement. Nikkei 225 gained with Japan to compile economic measures by the end of next month. Hang Seng and traded mixed with the mainland index faltering amid the ongoing lockdown inShanghai Comp. Shanghai and despite the announcement of supportive measures by the local government. Top Asian News Australia’s Budget Pitches Cash to Key Voters Ahead of Election Samsung to Offer More Credit in India to Boost Smartphone Sales Modern Land Joins List of Earnings Delays: Evergrande Update Iron Ore Edges Lower in China as Virus Controls Dent Demand European bourses, Euro Stoxx 50 +2.2%, are firmer across the board in a continuation of the APAC/US handover as Russian-Ukraine talks begin. Upside that has been exacerbated by remarks from both Ukraine and Russian officials. US futures are firmer across the board, ES +0.4%, though magnitudes more contained with Fed speak and supply ahead Top European News U.K. Consumer Credit Surges at Strongest Pace in Five Years U.K. Faces Crypto Exodus as Firms Sound Off Before FCA Deadline European Banks Could Earn $6.6 Billion a Year Greening Economy Inflation Rose Sharply in March on Energy Shock: ECB’s de Cos Commodities: Crude benchmarks have experienced an erosion of earlier upside amid multiple, but generally constructive, updates from Ukraine and Russia. Specifically, Ukrainian negotiator Podoliak noted that a ceasefire is being discussed with Russia adding a press conference is to be expected later. Albeit, the morning's action has not been sufficient to spark a test of the overnight parameters for WTI and Brent. Spot are pressured once more, generally speaking in-fitting with other havens, exacerbated by thegold/silver aforementioned risk-on move. In FX, Euro elevated as EGB yields ramp up again and hopes rise regarding a Russia-Ukraine peace resolution, EUR /USD above 1.1000 and a series of decent option expiries stretching between 1.0950 and the round number. Buck caught amidst buoyant risk sentiment and hawkish Fed vibe, DXY sub-99.000 after narrowly missing test of 2022 peak on Monday. Yen maintains recovery momentum amidst more MoF verbal intervention and demand for month/fy end, USD /JPY under 124.00 vs 125.00+ peak yesterday. Franc flounders as SNB ponders direct repo indexing to main policy rate, USD/CHF around 0.9360 and EUR /CHF over 1.0300. US Event Calendar 09:00: Jan. S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. 1.50%, prior 1.46% 09:00: Jan. FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 1.2%, prior 1.2% 10:00: March Conf. Board Present Situation, prior 145.1 10:00: March Conf. Board Expectations, prior 87.5 10:00: Feb. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 11m, prior 11.3m 10:00: March Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 107.0, prior 110.5 Central Bank Speakers 09:00: Fed’s Williams Makes Opening Remarks at Bank Culture... 10:45: Fed’s Harker Discusses Economic Outlook 21:30: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Economic Leadership DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A mixed medical report from the Reid family today. I have a nerve root block injection and a diagnostic test on my back tomorrow to battle my sciatica. I managed to stretch for an hour before attempting to play golf on Saturday thinking there was no hope. Miraculously it must have helped me get round but I then suffered for the rest of the weekend as I seized up as soon as I stopped. I told my wife I should have just carried on playing. She despaired at me. On the more positive side my 6-yr old Maisie had her latest 3-4 month scan yesterday. Regular readers will remember she's been in a wheelchair since November after an operation to help her battle a rare hip disorder called Perthes. There are no guarantees as to the long-term outcome with Perthes but the latest scan was encouraging and suggested that while her hip ball is fragmenting (disintegrating), it's not collapsing and getting out of shape largely due to no weight bearing. That suggests a decent chance that when it regrows (assuming it does) it will regrow relatively normally. The nightmare is if the hip ball gets squashed as it disintegrates. She'll still need to keep the weight off for most of the rest of the year but there's hope that by the end of it she can come out of her wheelchair and start the rehab towards a manageable hip. There are some horror stories with this disease in terms of pain and constant discomfort through the entirety of childhood so fingers crossed it's going in the right direction due to her discipline in spite of missing out on all the running about that she's desperate to do. Also helping is that she continues to swim 3-4 times a week and is remarkably good now. This has been the one blessing that's come out of a year and a half where we tried to get her problem diagnosed and then treated. Fingers crossed that the next scan in July will continue to move her in the right direction. Bond markets continued to be as volatile as my back yesterday with big swings in yields but with the front end sell-off being durable. This helped push a number of yield curves ever closer to inversion, meaning we have multiple recessionary signals starting or continuing to flash. The one we always look most closely at is the 2s10s curve, which has inverted prior to every one of the last 10 US recessions. Yesterday this flattened by -7.3bps to 12.5bps and this morning it’s currently just above 6bps with more flattening plus a new on the run 2yr note to blame. Could we invert today? Regardless it's likely to happen soon. A key factor behind this curve flattening has been monetary policy expectations, and over the last 24 hours we’ve seen investors continue to ratchet up their bets on how much tightening we’re likely to see this year. By the close yesterday, Fed Funds futures were pricing in a further 211bps of tightening by the end of 2022, on top of the 25bps a couple of weeks back, which if realised would be the largest move tighter in a calendar year since 1994, back when the Fed raised the target range for the Federal Funds by 250bps. On top of that, it’s clear that investors are also reappraising what the terminal rate is likely to be, and at one point yesterday investors were pricing in a move above 3% by the second half of 2023. We’re not talking much about the terminal rate at the moment, but as we move deeper into the hiking cycle, that’s likely to grab increasing attention, since the destination will have big implications for a wide variety of financial assets. Whilst the all-important 2s10s curve is still (just about) in positive territory, increasing numbers of curves have been inverting across different maturities, with the 3s30s curve becoming the latest to do so around the time we went to press yesterday, eventually closing down -10.4bps at -2.9bps. Similarly, the 3s10s that had already inverted went even deeper into inversion territory to close at -11.5bps, which is the most inverted it's been since 2006. The 5s30s was another to invert yesterday, falling as low as -7.1bps at one point before it steepened to close at -0.9bps. Clearly they are all a bit flatter this morning. If you’re interested in reading more on the yield curve, DB’s US economics team put out a piece last Friday (link here) looking at the value of these various measures for predicting recessions. The Fed have played down the usefulness of the 2s10s curve, and have argued that the Fed forward spread (18-month forward, 3-month yield minus the spot 3-month yield) is more valuable when it comes to explaining recessions risks over the next 12 months. But our economists find that traditional curve slope metrics like the 2s10s provide useful information over a longer horizon, like the next 2 years, and they point out that the 2s10s slope is consistent with a probability greater than 60% of a recession at some point over the next 2 years. Even with the latest round of flattening though, the truth is that the trend has been nearly all one-way for basically a year now. In fact, it was a year ago tomorrow that the slope of the 2s10s curve saw its intraday peak for this cycle, when it hit 162bps. Yesterday’s flattening also coincided with a healthy dose of Treasury volatility. 2yr yields ultimately wound up +5.8bps higher at 2.33%, after trading as much as +13.8bps higher during London trading. 10yr yields fell -1.5bps to 2.46%, but were as much as +8.0bps higher during London trading, and -6.1bps lower during the New York morning. This pushed the MOVE index of Treasury volatility +4.0pts higher to 129.3, just below levels realised in early March. In spite of all the volatility, equities were mostly positive yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.71%) staging a steady second half rally to start another week off in the green. The decline in longer-dated yields from their early London peak helped spur tech outperformance, with the NASDAQ gaining +1.31%. Europe also started the week on the front foot, with the STOXX 600 (+0.14%) advancing, alongside the DAX (+0.78%) and the CAC 40 (+0.54%). There were pockets of relative weakness however, with the small-cap Russell 2000 in the US closing flat. Energy stocks were left behind in the otherwise broad rally on both sides of the Atlantic given the large decline in oil discussed below, with the S&P 500 energy sector down -2.56% and the STOXX 600 energy sector down -2.10%. Indeed, Oil prices did fall back yesterday, with Brent crude down -6.77% to $112.48/bbl, but that reflected the lockdown in Shanghai and the prospect of a further release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve rather than more positive developments out of Ukraine. It's down another -0.8% this morning. On the other hand European natural gas (+1.26%) rose to €102.55/MWh, which occurred as German Economy minister Habeck said that the G7 had rejected the proposal from President Putin that natural gas contracts be paid in Rubles, with Habeck saying it was a “one-sided and clear breach of contracts”. Back to sovereign bonds, and there were some major moves in European sovereign bonds as well as the US yesterday, with yields on 10yr bunds moving to a fresh high above 0.6% after the open before modestly retreating -0.6bps to 0.58%. That pattern was common across core European sovereigns, with yields on 10yr gilts (-7.9bps) and OATs (-1.2bps) eventually also moving lower following their increases that morning. Similarly to the US, this has come as investor conviction has grown about the chances of tighter ECB policy in the coming months, with 48bps of hikes priced by year-end. Nevertheless, there’s still a wide policy divergence between the Fed’s and the ECB’s trajectory, and we saw this in the widening spread between 2yr US and Germany yields, which closed at 246.1bps yesterday, the most since September 2019. Asian equity markets are trading higher outside of China this morning with the Nikkei (+0.60%), Hang Seng (+0.40%) and Kospi (+0.31%) up. Stocks in mainland China are wavering with the Shanghai Composite (-0.44%) and CSI (-0.11%) both trading in negative territory as I type. Meanwhile, contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.04%) are fractionally higher while Nasdaq futures are down -0.11%. Early morning data showed that Japan’s industrial output rebounded +0.5% m/m in February after January’s contraction of -0.8%. Separately, Japan’s jobless rate inched down to 2.7% in February from 2.8% in January while the jobs-to-applicants ratio improved to 1.21 in February from 1.20 in the prior month. Elsewhere, Australia reported retail sales for February, advancing +1.8% m/m and beating market expectations for a +0.9% gain. It followed a downwardly revised +1.6% m/m increase in January. The Japanese Yen weakened to its lowest level against the US Dollar since 2015, depreciating -1.48% to 123.86 per dollar, and at one point surpassing 125 per dollar. It's moved nearly 8% in four weeks - a substantial move historically. The latest move came as the Bank of Japan announced they would purchase 10yr JGBs in unlimited quantities over three sessions today, tomorrow and the day after, which followed their move above 0.25% at one point, which we haven’t seen since 2016. The Yen is trading at 123.31 as we go to press so a continued reversal from the close and the lows yesterday morning. Elsewhere today, there’s set to be another round of in-person talks taking place in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine as the war continues into its second month. Investors have grasped at positive headlines in recent weeks and more sensitive assets such as energy prices have reacted accordingly, but the reality has been few signs of concrete progress towards any ceasefire, even if there has been a moderation in some of the demands from either side as to any potential settlement. Finally on Europe, we’re now just 12 days away from the first round of the French presidential election, and there are signs the race is tightening up slightly as the official campaign period began yesterday. Politico’s polling average puts President Macron in the lead still, but his 1st round polling has dipped to 28%, having been at 30% a couple of weeks earlier following the bounce he saw after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Behind him is Marine Le Pen on 19%, who he also faced in the second round back in 2017, and her average is up from 18% a couple of weeks earlier. The far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon is also gaining, now in 3rd place with 14% (up from 12% a couple of weeks ago), but he’s still 5 points behind Le Pen, and only the top 2 candidates go through to the run-off two weeks later. Behind them are also the far-right Eric Zemmour (11%), as well as the conservative Valérie Pécresse (11%). To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the FHFA house price index for January, the Case-Shiller home price index for January, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for March, and the JOLTS job openings for February. Over in Europe there’s also French consumer confidence for March, Germany’s GfK consumer confidence reading for April and UK mortgage approvals for February. Lastly, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Harker. Tyler Durden Tue, 03/29/2022 - 07:51.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeMar 29th, 2022

The Evolution Of Credit & The Growing Fiat Money Crisis

The Evolution Of Credit & The Growing Fiat Money Crisis Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com, After fifty-one years from the end of the Bretton Woods Agreement, the system of fiat currencies appears to be moving towards a crisis point for the US dollar as the international currency. The battle over global energy, commodity, and grain supplies is the continuation of an intensifying financial war between the dollar and the renminbi and rouble. It is becoming clear that the scale of an emerging industrial revolution in Asia is in stark contrast with Western decline, a population ratio of 87 to 13. The dollar’s role as the sole reserve currency is not suited for this reality. Commentators speculate that the current system’s failings require a global reset. They think in terms of it being organised by governments, when the governments’ global currency system is failing. Beholden to Keynesian macroeconomics, the common understanding of money and credit is lacking as well. This article puts money, currency, and credit, and their relationships in context. It points out that the credit in an economy is far greater than officially recorded by money supply figures and it explains how relatively small amounts of gold coin can stabilise an entire credit system. It is the only lasting solution to the growing fiat money crisis, and it is within the power of at least some central banks to implement gold coin standards by mobilising their reserves. Evolution or revolution? There are big changes afoot in the world’s financial and currency system. Fiat currencies have been completely detached from gold for fifty-one years from the ending of the Bretton Woods Agreement and since then they have been loosely tied to the King Rat of currencies, the dollar. Measured by money, which is and always has been only gold, King Rat has lost over 98% of its relative purchasing power in that time. From the Nixon Shock, when the Bretton Woods agreement was suspended temporarily, US Government debt has increased from $413 bn to about $30 trillion — that’s a multiple of 73 times. And given the US Government’s mandated and other commitments, it shows no signs of stabilising. This extraordinary debasement has so far been relatively orderly because the rest of the world has accepted the dollar’s hegemonic status. Triffin’s dilemma has allowed the US to run economically destructive policies without undermining the currency catastrophically. Naturally, that has led to the US Government’s complacent belief that not only will the dollar endure, but it can continue to be used for America’s own strategic benefits. But the emergence of rival superpowers in Asia has begun to challenge this status, and the consequence has been a financial cold war, a geopolitical jostling for position, particularly between the dollar and China’s renminbi, which has increased its influence in global financial affairs since the Lehman crisis in 2008. Wars are only understood by the public when they are physical in form. The financial and credit machinations between currency-issuing power blocs passes it by. But as with all wars, there ends up a winner and a loser. And since the global commodity powerhouse that is Russia got involved in recent weeks, America has continued its policy of using its currency status to penalise the Russians as if it was punishing a minor state for questioning its hegemonic status. The consequence is the financial cold war has become very hot and is now a commodity battle as well. Bringing commodities into the conflict is ripe with unintended consequences. Depending how the Russians respond to US-led sanctions, which they have yet to do, matters could escalate. In the West we have comforted ourselves with the belief that the Russian economy is on its uppers and Putin will have to either quickly yield to sanctions pressures, or face ejection by his own people in a coup. But that is a one-sided view. Even if it has a grain of truth, it ignores the consequences of Putin’s military failures on the ground in Ukraine so far, and his likely desperation to hit back with the one non-nuclear weapon at his disposal: Russia’s commodity exports. He may take the view that the West is damaging itself and little or no further action is required. And surely, the fact that China has stockpiled most of the world’s grain resources gives Russia added power as a marginal supplier. Putin can afford to not restrict food and fertiliser exports, blaming on American policy the starvation that will almost certainly be suffered by all non-combatant nations. He could cripple the West’s technology industries by banning or restricting exports of rare metals which are of little concern to headline writers in the popular press. He might exploit the one big loophole left in the sanctions regime by supplying China with whatever raw materials and energy it needs at discounted prices. And China could compound the problem for the West by restricting its exports of strategic commodities claiming they are needed for its own manufacturing requirements. While everyone focuses on what is seen, it is what is not seen that is ignored. Commodities are the visible manifestation of a trade war, while payments for them are not. Yet it is the flow of credit on the payment side where the battle for hegemonic status is fought. The Americans and their epigones in Europe have tried to shut down payments for Russian trade through the supposedly independent SWIFT system. And even the Bank for International Settlements, which by dealing with both Nazi Germany and the Allies retained its neutrality in the Second World War, is siding with the West today. But step back for a moment to look at how broadly based the West’s position is in a global context, because that will be a factor in whether the dollar’s hegemony will survive this conflict. We see America, the EU, Japan, the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand on one side. In population terms that’s roughly 335, 447, 120, 65, 38, 26 and 5 million people respectively, totalling 1,036 million, only 13% of the world population. This point was made meaningfully by the Saudis who now want to talk with Putin rather than Biden. As long ago as 2014, this writer was informed by a director of a major Swiss refinery that Arab customers were sending LBMA 400-ounce bars for recasting into Chinese four-nine one kilo bars. The real money saw this coming at least eight years ago. Even if the US’s external policies do not end up undermining the dollar’s global status, it is becoming clear that the King Rat of currencies is under an existential threat. And the Fed, which is responsible for domestic monetary policies, in conjunction with the Biden administration is undermining it from the inside as well by trying to manage a failing US economy by accelerating its debasement. A betting man would therefore be unlikely to put money on a favourable dollar outcome. Whether the dollar suffers a crisis or merely an accelerated decline, just as Nixon changed the world’s monetary order in 1971 it will change again. That the current situation is unsatisfactory is widely recognised by multiple commentators, even in America, calling for a financial and currency reset. And it is assumpted that the US Government and its central bank should come up with a plan. There are two major problems with the notion that somehow the deck chair attendant can save the ship from sinking by rearranging the sun loungers. The first error is insisting that money is the preserve of only the state and is not to be decided by those who use it. It was the underlying fallacy of Georg Knapp’s State Theory of Money published in 1905. That ended with Germany printing money to arm itself in the hope that it would win: it didn’t and Germany ended up destroying its papiermark. The second error is that almost no one understands money itself, as evidenced by the whole financial establishment, from the governments down to junior fund managers, thinking that their currencies are money. Commentators calling for a reset are themselves in the dark. Events will deal with the fallacies behind the State Theory of Money and whether it will turn out to be an evolution or revolution. But at least we can have a stab at explaining what money is for a modern audience, so that the requirements and conditions of a new currency system to succeed can be better understood. What is money for? The pre-Keynesian classical economic explanation of money’s role was set out in Say’s Law, otherwise known as the law of markets. Jean-Baptiste Say was a French economist, who in his Treatise on Political Economy published in 1803 wrote that, “A product is no sooner created than it, from that instant, affords a market for other products to the full extent of its own value.” And “Each of us can only purchase the productions of others with his own productions — and so the value we can buy is equal to the value we can produce. The more men can produce the more they will purchase.” Money or credit is the post-barter link between production and consumption facilitating the exchange between the two. What to produce and what is needed in exchange is a matter for those involved in individual transactions. And the medium of exchange used is a decision for each of the parties. They will tend to use a medium which is convenient and widely accepted by others. Say’s Law was incorrectly redefined and trashed by Keynes to “…that the aggregate demand price of output as a whole is equal to the aggregate supply price for all volumes of output is equivalent to the proposition that there is no obstacle to full employment.” This has subsequently been shortened to “supply creates its own demand”. Keynes’s elision of the truth was leading to (or was it to justify?) his erroneous invention of mathematical macroeconomics. It is simply untrue. All Say was pointing out is we divide our labour as the most efficient means of production for driving improvements in the human condition. That cannot be argued with, even by blinkered Keynesians. Money, or more correctly credit has two roles in this division of labour. The first is as the medium for investment in production, because things must be made before they can be sold and there are expenses in the form of presale payments that must be made. And the second is to act as the commonly accepted intermediary between the sale of products to their buyers. Instead of opining that supply creates its own demand, if we say instead that people make things so they can buy the products and services they don’t make for themselves, it is so obviously true that Keynes and his self-serving theories don’t have a leg to stand on. And importantly, full employment has nothing to do with it. The money involved is always credit. Even the act of lending gold coins to an entrepreneur to make something is credit because it is to be repaid. If gold coins are the payment medium between production and consumption, they are the temporary storage of production before it is spent. In this very narrow sense, they represent the credit of production which will be spent. The principal quality of gold, which when it is at rest is undeniably money, is that it has no counterparty risk and is to be parted with last. The point is that money in circulation is a subsection of wider credit and is the very narrowest of definitions of circulating media. But even under a gold standard, it is hardly ever used in transactions and rarely circulates. This is partly due to a Gresham’s Law effect, where it is only exchanged for inferior forms of credit as a last resort, and partly because it is less convenient than transferring banknotes or making book entries across bank ledgers. By far the most common forms of circulating media are credit in the form of banknotes issued by a central bank, and transferable credit owed by banks to depositors. But in our estimate of a practical replacement of the current fiat currency-based system, we must also acknowledge that credit is far broader than that recorded as circulating by means of the banking system. We are increasingly aware of the term, “shadow banks” most of which are pass-through channels of credit rather than credit creators. But doubtless, there is expanded credit in circulation originating from shadow banks, the equivalent of officially recorded bank credit, which is not captured in the money supply statistics. But there are also wider forms of credit in any economy. Defining credit To further our understanding of credit, we must define the fundamental concept of credit: Credit is anything which is of no direct use, but which is taken in exchange for something else, in the belief or confidence that we have the right to exchange it away again. It is the right to a future payment, not necessarily in money or currency. It is not the transfer of something, but it is a right to a future payment. Consequently, the most common form of credit is an agreement between two parties which has nothing to do with bank credit per se. Bank credit is merely the most obvious and recorded subset of the entire quantity of credit in an economy. And the whole world of derivatives, futures, forwards, and options, are also credit for an action in time, additional to bank credit. Global M3 money supply is said to be $40 trillion equivalent, about 3% of investments, derivatives, and cryptocurrencies, all of which are forms of credit: rights and promises to future payments in credit or currency. And this is in addition to private credit agreements between individuals and other individuals, and between businesses and individuals, which are extremely common. The commonly stated position among sound money advocates of the Austrian school is that bank credit should be replaced by custodial deposit-taking banks and separate arrangers of finance. But given the broad definition of credit in the real world, eliminating bank credit appears untenable when individuals are free to offer multiple amounts of credit and the vast bulk of credit creation is outside the banking system. Consider the case of a bookie accepting wagers for a horse race. Ahead of the event, he takes on obligations many times the capital in his business, in return for which he is paid in banknotes or drawings on bank credit by his betting customers. When the race is over, he keeps the losers’ stakes and is liable for payments to holders of the winning bets. He has debts to the winners which are only extinguished when the winners collect. While there are differences in procedures and of the risks involved, in principal there is little difference between a bookie’s business and that of a commercial bank; they are both dealers in credit. Arguably, the bookie has the sounder business model. The restriction imposed on an individual providing credit to others is his potential liability if it is called upon. The unfairness in the current system is not that bank credit is permitted, but that is permitted with limited liability. Surely, the solution is to ensure that all providers of credit are responsible for the risks involved. Licenced banks and their shareholders should face unlimited liability. It is even conceivable that listed capital in an overleveraged bank might trade at negative values if shareholders face a risk of unlimited calls on their wealth. That should promote responsibility in bank lending. It will not eliminate the cycle of bank credit expansion and contraction, but it will certainly lessen its disruptive impact. Variations in the purchasing power of a medium of exchange A proper consideration of credit, the all-embracing term for mediums of exchange to include future promises, shows that government statistics for money supply are a diminishingly small part of overall credit in an economy. We must take this fact into account when considering changes in the official quantity of money on the purchasing power of units of the medium of exchange (that is credit in the form of circulating banknotes and commercial bank credit — M1, M2, M3 etc.). A downturn in economic activity must be considered in the broader sense. If, for example, I say to my neighbour that if he arranges it, I will cover half the cost of fencing the boundary between our properties, I have offered him credit upon which he can proceed to contract a fencing supplier and installer. However, if in the interim my circumstances have changed and I cannot deliver on my promise, the credit agreement with my neighbour is withdrawn and the fence might not be installed. A father might promise his son an allowance while he attends university. That is a credit agreement with periodic drawdowns lasting the course. Later, the father might promise help in buying a property for his son to live in. These are promises, whose values are particular and precarious. And they will be valid only so long as they can be afforded. If there is a general change in economic conditions for the worse, it is almost certainly driven more by the withdrawal of unrecorded credit agreements between individuals and small businesses such as corner shops, and not directly due to bank credit contraction. An appreciation of these facts and of changes in human behaviour which cannot be recorded statistically explains much about the lack of correlation between measures of credit (i.e., broad money supply) and prices. The equation of exchange (MV=PQ) does not even capture a decent fraction of the relationship between the quantity of credit in an economy and prices. Our understanding of the wider credit scene goes some way to resolving a mystery that has bedevilled monetary economists ever since David Ricardo first proposed the relationship over two centuries ago. In theory, an increase in the quantity of measurable credit (that is currency in the banking system) leads to a proportionate increase in prices. Even allowing for statistical legerdemain, that is patently not true, as Figure 1 illustrates. Figure 1 shows that over the last sixty years, the broadest measure of US dollar money supply has increased by nearly seventy times, while prices have increased about nine. The equation of exchange explains it by persuading us that each unit of currency circulates less so that the increase in the money quantity somehow leads to less of an effect on prices. This interpretation is consistent with Keynes’s denial of Say’s Law. The Law tells us that we all make profits and/or earn salaries, which in the time-space of a year means we can only spend and save once. That is an unvarying velocity of unity. Instead, the mathematical economists have introduced a variable, V, which simply balances an equation which should not exist. That is not to say that credit expansion does not affect the purchasing power of a currency. Logic corroborates it. But an understanding of the true extent of credit in an economy confirms that the sum of currency and recorded bank credit is just a small part of the story – only one eighth as indicated by the divergence between M3 and consumer prices — all else being equal. It brings us to the other driving force in the credit/price relationship, which is the public acceptability of the currency. Ludwig von Mises, the Austrian economist, who lived through the Austrian inflation in the post-WW1 years and whose advice the Austrian government was reluctant to accept, observed that variations in public confidence in the currency can have a profound effect on its purchasing power. Famously, Mises described a crack-up boom as evidence that the public had finally abandoned all faith in the government’s currency and disposed of all of it in return for goods, needed or not. It leads to the sensible conclusion that irrespective of changes in the circulating quantity, the purchasing power is fully dependent on the public’s faith in the currency. Destroy that, and the currency becomes valueless as a medium of exchange. If confidence is maintained, it follows that the price effects of a currency debasement may be minimised. This brings us to gold coin. If the state backs its currency with sufficient gold which the public is free to obtain on demand from the issuer of the currency, then the currency takes on the characteristics of gold as money. We should not need to justify this established and ancient role for gold, or silver for that matter, to the current generations of Keynesians brainwashed into thinking it’s just old hat. Though they rarely admit it, central bankers fully committed to their fiat currencies still retain gold reserves in the knowledge that they are no one’s liability; that is to say, true money while their currencies are simply credit. Given what we now know about the extent of credit beyond the banking system and the role of public confidence in the currency when it is a credible gold substitute, we can see why a moderate expansion of the currency need not undermine its purchasing power proportionately. While the cycle of bank credit expansion and contraction leads to the boom-and-bust conditions described by Von Mises and Hayek in their Austrian business cycle theory, the effects on prices under a gold standard do not appear to have been enough to destabilise a currency’s purchasing power. Figure 2 illustrates the point. Admittedly there are several factors at work. While the increase in the quantity of currency in circulation was generally restricted by the gold coin standard, the bank credit cycle of expansion and contraction led to periodic bank failures. Then as now, the quantity of bank credit relative to bank notes was eight or ten times, and so long as the note-issuing bank remained at arm’s length from the tribulations of commercial bank credit the overall price effects were contained. Britain abandoned the gold standard in 1914, and just as the abandonment of the silver standard in the 1790s led to an increase in the general price level, a dramatic increase occurred during the First World War. This was due to deficit spending by the state driving up material costs at a time when imported factors of supply were limited by the destruction of merchant shipping. The end of the war restored the supply/demand balance and saw a reduction in military spending. Prices fell and then stabilised. A gold bullion standard at the pre-war rate of exchange was re-established in 1925, only to be abandoned in 1931. The Second World War and subsequent lack of any anchor to the currency led to an inexorable rise in prices before America abandoned the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971. And since then, the sterling price of gold has risen even further from £14.58 when the Agreement ceased to £1,470 today. Measured in true money the currency has lost over 99% of its purchasing power over the last fifty-one years. Both logic and the empirical evidence point to the same conclusion: price stability can only be achieved under a working gold coin standard, whereby ordinary people can, should they so wish, exchange banknotes for coin on demand. Despite making up most of the circulating medium, fluctuations in bank credit then have less of an effect on prices, for the reasons stated above. Can cryptocurrencies replace gold? The reason gold is relatively stable in purchasing power terms is that through history, above ground stocks have expanded at similar rates to population growth. A very gradual increase in gold’s purchasing power comes from manufacturing, technological, and competitive production factors. In other words, the price stability clearly demonstrated in Figure 2 above between 1820—1914 is evolutionary. Whether cryptocurrencies or central bank digital currencies might have a stabilising role for prices in future is highly contentious. We can readily dismiss yet another version of state-issued currencies as being a worse form of credit than failing fiat currencies. The aim behind them is communistic, to enable the state to allocate credit resources wherever and to whomsoever its political class may desire. It is with the intention of reducing the vagaries of human action on the state’s intended outcome. Just as every replacement currency for failing fiat in the past has failed, if CBDCs are introduced they will fail as well. It is unnecessary to comment further. Cryptocurrencies, particularly bitcoin, are seen by a small minority of enthusiasts as the money of the future, being outside the state’s printing presses. But as observed above, in reality, sound money is augmented by fluctuating quantities of credit in far larger quantities. So long as sound money provides price stability, circulating credit inherits those characteristics. Bitcoin, the leading claimant to being future money, lacks both world-wide acceptance and the flexibility required for long-term stability and therefore economic calculation. Imagine an entrepreneur planning to invest in production, a project which from the drawing-board to final sales takes several years. His nineteenth century forebears had a reasonable idea of final prices, so could calculate costs, sales values, and therefore the interest cost of the capital deployed over the whole project to leave him with a profit. No such certainty exists with bitcoin because final prices cannot be assumed. Furthermore, central banks do not have bitcoin as part of their reserves, and by embarking on plans for their own CBDCs have signalled that they will not have anything to do with it. But in most cases central banks or their government treasury ministries possess gold bullion, which as a last resort they can deploy to stabilise a failing currency. While there will undoubtedly be future benefits from their underlying technologies, it is impossible to see how cryptocurrencies can have a practical role in backing wider credit. Conclusion The evolution of fiat dollars which dates from the abandonment of the Bretton Woods Agreement is coming to an inevitable conclusion: fiat currencies come and go and only gold goes on forever. Whoever wins the financial battle now raging with increasing intensity over commodity prices, the US dollar as the King Rat of fiat currencies is losing its assumed superiority over the renminbi, and possibly the rouble if the Russians can stabilise it. The old-world population backing the dollar is heavily outnumbered by the newly industrialising Eurasia as well as its commodity and raw material suppliers in Africa and South America. Not mentioned in this article is the Federal Reserve Board’s commitment to sacrifice the dollar to support financial values — that ground has been well covered in earlier Goldmoney articles. But it is a repetition of John Law’s policies in 1720 France, now underway to stop the global financial bubble from imploding. And just as the Mississippi Company continued after 1720 when the French livre collapsed entirely that year, we see the same dynamics in play for the entire fiat currency system today. John Law’s policies of credit stimulation for the French economy were remarkably like those of modern Keynesians. This time, the expansion of money supply on a global basis has been on an unprecedented scale, encouraged by the subdued effect on prices measured by government-compiled consumer price indices. Undoubtedly, much of the lack of price inflation is down to statistical method, but from Figure 1 we have seen that over the last sixty years the quantity of currency and credit captured by US dollar M3 has grown about seven and a half times more rapidly than prices. We have concluded that this disparity is partly due to not all credit in the economy being captured in the monetary statistics. Understanding the relationship between money which is only physical gold coin, currency which is bank notes and credit which includes bank credit, shadow bank credit, derivatives, and personal guarantees, is vital to understanding what is required to replace the fiat-currency system. It also explains why a relatively small base of exchangeable gold coin in relation to the overall credit in an economy is sufficient to guarantee price stability. Tyler Durden Sat, 03/19/2022 - 18:30.....»»

Category: dealsSource: nytMar 19th, 2022

51 gifts for teens that they won"t toss away in their closet, from a popular hair dryer to a tie-dye kit

The best gifts for teens are ones they'll actually want to use, like tech gadgets, beauty products, and cool accessories. Here are 51 unique gifts. Prices are accurate at the time of publication.When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.One of the best gifts for teens is a portable, waterproof speaker they can bring with them on trips with friends.Amazon It's never easy to shop for a teenager, especially if their tastes change frequently. We rounded up 51 gifts to make it easier to find the perfect gadget, game, or accessory.  Browse all of Insider Reviews' gift guides for more great gift ideas. Being a teenager is tough, but trying to buy a gift for one is even harder: They can be picky and fickle when it comes to what products they want. Sometimes, the best way to show a teen that you care is just to listen, and sometimes it's a thoughtful gift to show them you see them.To make the gift search easier, we curated 51 gifts ranging from a card game to a smartwatch to a quick-drying hair towel at various price points to ensure as many options as possible.If you are still unsure of what to get (and you can't ask them directly) try consulting their friends. Either way, a smart general rule of thumb is to make sure your gift is returnable. The 51 best gifts for teens: A tie dye kit they can use for a fun at-home activityTargetTulip 37pc One Step Tie Dye Kit, available at Target, $9.99They can revitalize white clothes and spend a few hours having fun doing something creative, whether solo or with family or friends.This one-step hair dryer brushElana Rubin/InsiderRevlon Salon One-Step Hair Dryer and Volumizer Hot Air Brush, available at Target, $54.99Who doesn't love a one-step tool that feels luxurious? This popular round brush acts as a hairdryer while they brush, giving their hair volume without much finesse or time. You can find a full review of the Revlon One-Step here. An Apple AirTag to keep track of their belongingsLisa Eadicicco/InsiderApple AirTag, available at Target, $29.99The teenager in your life can attach this tag to their backpack, wallet, keys, or any other easily lost item and find it easily with the Find My app whenever they've misplaced it. Using the app, they can opt for the tag to play a sound until they've found their keys sandwiched between couch cushions or their wallet in the pantry.A board game that feels like a video gameAmazonCephalofair Games Gloomhaven Multi-Award-Winning Strategy Boxed Board Game, available at Amazon, $111.47This collaborative board game (good for one to up to four players) is sort of like Dungeons & Dragons, Magic the Gathering, and other cult-favorite fantasy adventure games that forces its players to contend with monsters and mercenaries, explore a new world, and discover treasure and fame. Players make tactical decisions, and the game unfolds in reaction to their choices. Disposable cameras to help them stay in the momentAmazonFujifilm Instax Mini 9 Instant Camera, available at Amazon, $69.04Funsaver One Time Use Film Camera (2-pack), available at Amazon, $45.30Disposable cameras are popular right now, partly because of the nostalgic aesthetic of a polaroid and partly because of their simplicity. Spending so much time immersed in technology — and combatting the temptation to retake and edit photos in real-time — keep us from staying present.Disposable film cameras or polaroids help preserve memories without adding to their screen time. Plus, they give them cute photos to decorate their room with!Glossier's fan-favorite productsGlossierBoy Brow + Balm Dotcom + Futuredew Pack, available at Glossier, $42No-makeup makeup is in right now and, if your teen is into beauty products, they may appreciate a gift from Glossier, which is the "natural and glowy" brand Olivia Rodrigo says she wears in her Vogue beauty diary.We'd recommend a gift card or a pack like the Boy Brow + Balm Dotcom + Futuredew pack, which covers three of its fan-favorite products.A great bookAmazon"Ready Player One" by Ernest Cline, available at Amazon and Bookshop, from $11Books are an incredible gift if your teen is a reader. It can translate into hours of enjoyment at a minimum and, at its best, a favorite story that follows them well into adulthood.Plus, if you've read the book, it can also mean great conversations about it or movie adaptations to watch together. It's also a gift where money doesn't really matter; you can find a great read for $20 and spending more won't make much difference.Some book suggestions:"All the Bright Places," a popular YA book on TikTok"Scythe," a bestselling dystopian YA book similar to "The Hunger Games"The best young adult books, according to a teenagerThe best young adult romance booksThe best young people's literature of 2021 according to the National Book AwardsThe best books we read in our 20sAn eco-conscious tie-dye beanieFree The EarthFeel the Earth Breathe Tie Dye Beanie, available at Free People, from $40These unisex tie-dye beanies come in cool colors and with a unique plant logo. (To date, the Parks Project has reportedly contributed over $2,000,000 to help fund vital projects in national parks around the US).Ribbed beanies are big right now, à la the popular Carhartt beanie. If they've got that staple covered, the Parks Project also has tube socks. A splashproof, portable Bluetooth speaker perfect for outdoor tripsAmazonUltimate Ears Wonderboom 2, available at Amazon, $98This rugged, compact speaker can go with them anywhere. It's waterproof, has an "outdoor boost" button specifically for listening outside, is "drop-proof," and boasts a 13-hour battery life.A plush toy that they can heat upUrban OutfittersSmoko Mini Toasty Heatable Plushie, available at Urban Outfitters, $18Whenever they need some cozy comfort, they can heat up this cute animal-shaped heating pad for a snuggle.A portable phone chargerAmazonElecjet Powerpie Portable Charger, available at Amazon, $54.99This handheld charger can charge up your teen's smartphone or various devices like an iPad or small laptop so they can stay in touch, turn their paper in on time, or just never have to stress about 5% battery life.Sheet masks to go with a Netflix marathonAmazonTONYMOLY I'm Real Sheet Masks, available at Amazon, $26There are few things my 15-year-old sister loves more than oversized hoodies, Boba, and an endless supply of sheet masks. Grab a pack, throw them on, and make a night out of it with your teen's favorite candy and TV show.A pair of trendy, easy-to-use AirPodsAppleApple AirPods Pro with Charging Case, available at Target, $199.99If you're after the title of their favorite relative of the year, here's a good place to start. AirPods are both easy to use and functional as well as trendy. A Boba-shaped AirPods Pro caseUrban OutfittersSmoko Boba Tea AirPods Pro Case, available at Urban Outfitters, $18As I mentioned, part of my 15-year-old sister's ideal trifecta is Boba. You can pick up a cute, fun case no matter what their interest is — Baby Yoda, gaming, Boba, or whatever else. A Bluetooth water bottle speakerGrommetBluetooth Water Bottle Speakers, available at Grommet, $39.95This Bluetooth water bottle speaker offers a boost of hydration and fun for everyone. The water-resistant speaker resides at the top, ensuring greater sound quality that lasts 6-10 hours. It's the perfect accessory for them to bring to every hang-out session. A slim leather walletAmazonBellroy Slim Sleeve Leather Wallet, available at Amazon and Bellroy, $79This thin wallet is a subtle nudge toward minimalism, something many teens appreciate. The Bellroy Slim Sleeve wallet offers room for up to eight cards and a pocket to stash cash. It comes in a variety of colors and features environmentally certified leather.An eco-friendly phone casePelaPela Phone Case, available at Amazon and Pela, from $38.95Pela offers a wide variety of biodegradable cases for iPhone and Android, all made from plant-based polymers. Pela cases are rugged enough to offer drop protection, and if a phone has both a Pela case and screen protector but still cracks, Pela will cover the bill to get it fixed.A comfortable and sustainable Patagonia pullover they'll wear all the timePatagoniaLightweight Synchilla Snap-T Pullover, Men, available at Patagonia, $119Patagonia Women's Better Sweater 1/4-Zip Fleece, available at Patagonia, $119A Patagonia sweater is a particularly good gift for teens who are interested in sustainability. The company has been turning plastic bottles into polyester for its clothing since 1993 and continues to do so today.Its Snap-T pullover is the unofficial uniform of the cozy adventurer. It and the Better Sweater are long-held favorites, and both are comfortable classics that they'll no doubt come to rely on heavily during colder weather.Not sold on the Patagonia option? They may also appreciate the Acadia Recycled Polar Trail Fleece from the environmentally-conscious Parks Project.A gift card for stylish new glassesWarby ParkerGift Card, available at Warby Parker, from $50Teens are a notoriously picky bunch, so you can never go wrong with a gift card. If they're in the market for new glasses or sunglasses, we recommend Warby Parker because of its versatility, size flexibility, and free at-home try-on program. An Amazon Echo Dot for hands-free calls, alarms, music, updates on the weather, and moreAmazonEcho Dot (4th gen), available at Best Buy, $34.99The Amazon Echo Dot is the most popular Amazon device for a reason — it's compact and has all the capabilities of Alexa (weather updates, recipes, music, news) without any of the bulk. A smartphone-sized travel photo printerTargetHP Sprocket 200 Photo Printer, available at Amazon and B&H Photo, $79.99This tiny, compact device prints photos with sticker backing on ZINK film with Zero Ink technology. It connects to devices via Bluetooth, and multiple devices can connect at once (personalized LED lights indicate who's currently printing). String lights with clips for photosAmazon/Business InsiderPhoto Clip LED String Lights, available at Target, $10Perfect for creating the archetypal teen room that's most often seen in Netflix movies and old Taylor Swift music videos, the photo clip string lights combine warm light and Polaroids (or other memorabilia). A trendy Champion sweatshirtUrban OutfittersChampion Reverse Weave Fleece Crew Neck Sweatshirt, available at Urban Outfitters, $54Like Fila, Champion is a brand that's had a resurgence as of late. If you want to get them something they'll end up wearing all the time, this is a good candidate. A great video game"The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword HD" / Nintendo"The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword HD", available at Amazon, from $49.94If they're really into video games, all other gifts may pale in comparison to a really good new one. Check out "Hades," "NBA 2K22," and "The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword HD."A vinyl record membershipVinyl Me, PleaseGift Membership, 3 months, available at Vinyl Me, Please, $119There's no greater joy than adding to a record collection or playing a new album for the first time. Your recipient gets to choose from three different types of tracks each month and will also receive extra goodies in each package. They'll also get one bonus record as part of the three-month gift membership. A gentle facial cleansing device that removes 98.5% of dirt and makeupFOREOLuna 3 Facial Cleansing Device, Men, available at Foreo, $199Luna 3 Facial Cleansing Device, Women, available at Foreo, $199FOREO's cult-favorite Luna 3 cleansing device gently and effectively cleans with thin, antimicrobial silicone touch-points, and it removes 98.5% of dirt and makeup residue without irritating the skin. Plus, it's 100% waterproof and the battery life lasts for a few months per charge.This newest generation also offers an array of massages to tighten the skin for a youthful look. Find a full review on the previous generation Luna 2 from a female reporter and a male reporter here.Comfortable lounge pants that look put-togetherMeUndiesThe Lounge Pant, Men, available at MeUndies, $68The Lounge Pant, Women, available at MeUndies $68MeUndies is a popular LA startup that makes some of the most comfortable underwear we've ever tried. Their lounge pants, however, are the real hidden gem — perfect for lounging around on weekend mornings or heading to the dining hall when they get to college (yep, they'll last that long) while still looking sleek.A subscription to a famous book club that sends them great hardcovers each monthBook of the Month/Instagram3-Month Gift Subscription, available at Book of the Month, $49.99If your teen is a bookworm, Book of the Month is an especially cool gift. It's a book club that has been around since 1926, and it's credited with discovering some of the most beloved books of all time (like "Gone with the Wind" and "Catcher in the Rye" to name a couple).If you gift them a subscription, they'll receive a hardcover book delivered once a month. Books are selected by a team of experts and celebrity guest judges.If they're really more into audiobooks or e-reading now rather than hardcovers, check out a gift subscription to Scribd (full review here).An Apple Watch that combines their smartphone with a fitness trackerAmazonApple Watch SE GPS, 40mm, available at Apple, from $279If you have a little extra to spend on your teen, consider getting them a smartwatch. The Apple Watch SE is like a smartphone, fitness tracker, and music player all in one. Just like on their phone, they can customize the watch to show their favorite apps to pick, including social media.A cute iPhone caseSociety6Coffee Reading iPhone Case, available at Society6, $22This fun iPhone case is funny and unique, and most of their friends probably won't have the exact same one. Reusable strawsAmazonHiware Reusable Silicone Straws (10-pack), available at Amazon, $6.99Help teens do their part to keep single-use plastics out of trash bins, landfills, and the ocean by giving them this pack of reusable silicone drinking straws. They come in various colors and include a few cleaning brushes as well.A set of velvet retro-inspired scrunchiesAmazon/Business InsiderHair Scrunchie Variety Pack, available at Target, $6.99Another trendy gift is as many scrunchies as you can carry. This pack comes with 12 options in enough colors to work with virtually any outfit or mood. A multicolor mini cinema light boxUrban OutfittersMulticolor Cinema Light Box, available at Uncommon Goods, from $20These trendy lightboxes are inspired by cinema marquees, and they come with 100 letters and symbols for personal messages. This one also has color-changing LED lights for further customization.Fun and useful PopSockets for the back of their phoneAmazon/Business InsiderPopGrips, available at PopSockets and Amazon, from $10PopSockets have become their own cultural phenomenon in recent years, and they're surprisingly useful. Get your teen one for their own phone or tablet, and depending on their age, you may find it's the gift they're most excited about. It doesn't hurt that there's free domestic shipping on orders over $20, or that you can actually design your own.A waterproof e-reader with a no-glare screenAmazonAll-New Kindle Paperwhite, available at Amazon, $129.99Amazon's Kindle Paperwhite is its thinnest, lightest version. It also has double the storage, a built-in light that adjusts to accommodate reading indoors or outdoors, and is waterproof for reading anywhere, including the beach or bath. Plus, a single battery charge lasts weeks rather than hours.Cool backpacks from a popular startup with a charitable missionSTATE Bags/FacebookState bags and accessories, from $15State bags are increasingly popular thanks to their versatile, laid-back aesthetic and characteristically bright nylon colorways. They're also known as #GiveBackPack(s), because for every State bag purchased, State hand-delivers a backpack — packed with essential tools for success — to a local child in need. The Lorimer and Bedford are two of the company's best sellers.A three-month subscription of beauty productsBirchBox3-Month Subscription, available at BirchBox, $45Teens are usually among the most interested in the latest and greatest beauty or grooming products — but may lack the funds to try all the full-sized versions. Birchbox sends samples of new and beloved products once a month, so they can test out new finds and discover products they may want to buy a full size of in the future. (It's also just fun to get an ongoing gift.)Personalized NikesNikeCustomizable Nikes, available at Nike, from $120Nike makes great stuff, but it's nice to get the benefits of a great shoe without forsaking what makes something unique. You can customize a pair of Nikes for them, or give them a gift card so they can get creative making something one-of-a-kind on their own.A great Alexa-enabled speaker they can control by voiceSonosSonos One Smart Speaker, available at Sonos, from $219The new Sonos One smart speaker fills any room with clear, rich sound, and they can use Alexa to play and control their music without ever lifting a finger. Find a full review here.A cult-favorite hair towel that reduces damage and cuts drying time by 50%Aquis/Business InsiderAquis Rapid Dry Hair Towel, available at Amazon and Sephora, from $20.99Aquis' cult-favorite hair towels can cut the amount of time it takes your hair to dry in half — a claim we're happy to report holds up. The proprietary fabric also means there's less damage to wet hair while it dries. If they've ever complained about frizzy hair, this and a silk pillowcase are thoughtful gifts they'll actually use. A Disney+ subscription for access to classic movies and moreDisney PlusDisney+ Gift Subscription Service, available at Disney, $79.99/yearDisney Plus is the new Disney-centric streaming service. The platform includes Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and 20th Century Fox. You can gift a whole year of access for $80, which is something their entire family can benefit from.If you'd rather test Disney Plus out before buying, you can sign up for a free weeklong trial.A suitcase with an ejectable battery that can charge their devices on the goAwayThe Carry-On, available at Away, from $225Travel startup Away makes a great carry-on thanks to an ejectable battery that can charge devices seamlessly on the go, 360-degree wheels, and a lightweight build that travels easily. In other words, it takes a lot of the angst out of travel and may make family trips far more enjoyable and stress-free.Durable sunglasses that look good, tooAmazonSmith Optics Lowdown2, available at Backcountry, $129Who better to make a pair of durable, performance-based sunglasses than the company known for innovating the ski goggle? The Lowdown2 features bio-based materials for the frame, ChromaPop lens technology which creates high contrast and vibrant colors, and an anti-reflective smudge-resistant coating.Plus, the brand offers peace of mind with free shipping, 30-day returns, and a lifetime warranty.Comfortable, high-quality sheets that come in lots of colors and patternsBrooklinenLuxe Hardcore Sheet Bundle, available at Brooklinen and Amazon, from $240We think Brooklinen makes the best high-end sheets at the best price on the market, and most of the Insider Reviews team uses Brooklinen on their own beds. It's perfect for lazy Saturday mornings or the rare occasion sleeping in is encouraged.The Luxe Hardcore Sheet Bundle comes in 15 colors and patterns that range from classic to fun, and you can mix and match them to suit their preferences. Grab a gift card (delivered digitally) if you want to give them more freedom.Fidget ballsSpeksSpeks 2.5mm magnet balls, available at Speks, $34.95Made from rare earth magnets, these tiny balls can be molded into an infinite number of shapes and designs. The size of Speks balls makes them ideal for teens to keep with them for those unpredictable moments of nervousness that fill those teenage years.A pack of smart plugs so they can control devices from a distanceAmazon/Business InsiderTP-Link KIT WiFi Smart Plug, 2-Pack, available at Amazon, $35.99Whether they're wondering if they turned off their hot iron or just don't want to get up to turn off the TV, a smart plug lets them control devices from a distance. You can connect to them using any smart device.A Time-Turner clock that actually spinsHarry PotterHarry Potter Time-Turner Clock, available at Pottery Barn, $79It may not be able to take them back in time or help them be in two places at once, but this Time-Turner clock will help them stay on top of their schedule. It even has a functional hourglass on the back so they can time their study breaks. A toothbrush with a timerAmazonOral-B Pro 1000 Electric Toothbrush, available at Amazon, $39.97Rigorous dental hygiene isn't usually on the top of the list of things teens care about, which is all the more reason a rechargeable toothbrush with a timer is a fantastic gift. This rechargeable brush breaks up 300% more plaque on the gum line than traditional brushing and lets them know when two minutes have passed.Compact hand sanitizer sprayTouchlandTouchland Power Mist Hand Sanitizer, available at Touchland, $9It's in the car, the house, and their pocket these days, but many hand sanitizers can smell a little like household cleaner. Touchland comes in scents like Vanilla Cinnamon and Forrest Berry, or keep it simple and choose unscented.The compact sanitizer features 67% alcohol for killing germs but balances it with soothing aloe vera and essential oils to hydrate the skin. A lottery card that donates to charitiesLottoLove/Business InsiderLottoLove Card, available at LottoLove, from $5When you gift this lottery card, you're actually giving the gift of charity. When you "win big," you're winning a charitable prize that gets donated to nonprofits in one of four categories: Clean water, solar light, nutritious meals, or literacy tools. To date, LottoLove and its partners have impacted lives in over 70 countries.Gift cards for concert tickets, food, and clothesChipotleYou can't go wrong with money for their favorite things, especially for teens who are often relying upon part-time jobs to fund their frequent Chipotle meals and concert trips with friends. Check out more gift card ideas here.Everything: Visa Gift Card / Amazon Gift CardCoffee and food: Starbucks Gift Card / Chipotle Gift CardEntertainment and live events: Netflix Gift Card / Xbox Gift Card / Hulu Gift Card / StubHub gift cardMusic: Spotify Gift CardSheets: Brooklinen Gift CardGroceries and food: Whole Foods Gift Card / Chipotle Gift CardClothes: Nordstrom Gift Card / Everlane Gift CardTech: Best Buy Gift CardRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderJan 13th, 2022

The 56 best last-minute gifts for college students, from portable photo printers to the comfiest sheets

The best gifts for college students are practical and fun. Here are 56 gift ideas from a recent college graduate. Prices are accurate at the time of publication.When you buy through our links, Insider may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more.Staples The best gifts for college students are practical, fun, and time-saving. I'm a current college student, and I put together this list of 50+ gift options any student would appreciate. Need more gift ideas? Check out our gift guides for toddlers, teens, and pretty much everyone. As a college student, there are just a few things we want: clear skin, job security, and to have some fun. Some gifts can help with this. Others can't, but they're still nice to have for how much they make our lives easier.College students today are in a unique position in life between (probably) getting little sleep, taking classes while working, and taking care of themselves throughout everything. This is especially important to keep in mind when thinking about gifts.One thing this list assumes is that the student you're thinking about already has basics like a shower caddy, lanyard for their student ID, and laundry basket that can hold several weeks of dirty clothes at time. Instead, this list is full of gifts that'll be like the cherry on top to whatever they already have.Check out all 56 gifts for college students:A more modern card game for nights in and partiesAmazonWhat Do You Meme?, available at Amazon, $29.99College students today are of the meme generation, so this game will be highly appreciated. This set includes 75 of the funniest memes plus 360 caption cards to make the wonkiest combinations for a game during study breaks or chill wine nights.One of the easiest ways to find your favorite fragranceScentbirdScentbird 6-month subscription, available from Scentbird, $84Finding a fragrance that speaks to you is an unspoken step in finding your style. But buying a bunch of different scents can take a long time and cost a lot. Scentbirds is a perfume and cologne discovery subscription that helps you find your favorite perfumes by sending monthly options based on your preferences.A sunrise alarm clock for a gentle wakeup, no phones involvedSuzy Hernandez/InsiderHatch Restore, available on Amazon, $129.99Using your phone as an alarm clock makes it a lot easier to start scrolling on your phone first thing in the morning, which isn't the healthiest habit. A sunrise alarm clock can help your student have a much better start to their day than immediately checking emails or scrolling on Instagram. The Hatch Restore is a great sunrise alarm option with a ton of special features, and the iHome Zenergy Dream Mini ($69.99) is the best option on a budget.One of the nicest, most classic notebooks everMoleskineMoleskine Classic Notebook, available on Amazon, $20.34Moleskine journals have a history of belonging to creatives and being the place where great ideas and art begin. If the student you're thinking of is a writer, for example, a Moleskine journal is a perfect gift to let them know you support them. These are also stellar for note-taking.An air fryer for the snack loverAmazonThe Philips Premium TurboStar Air Fryer, available at Walmart, $249.35Air fryers have been all the buzz for how they can turn just about anything into a warm, crispy delight. Plus, they save a ton of time, which every college student can appreciate. The Philips Premium TurboStar Air Fryer is one of the best air fryers on the market today.There's some controversy about how good air fryers actually are, so you can also think about gifting a toaster oven.A good wallet to hold their cards, cash, and keep their student ID handyVera BradleyMicrofiber Zip ID Wallet, available at Vera Bradley, $10Vera Bradley's Zip ID Wallet is a great option for students who have to frequently show or swipe their student ID but don't need an overstuffed bifold. The O-ring is a convenient and sturdy place to hold all their keys. It also makes it easy to clip the wallet into their other bags like a purse or backpack.A steady supply of healthier (and still very tasty) snacksThrive Market1-Year Membership + $25 Shopping Credit, available at Thrive Market, $64.95College students live off good food and snacks. Gifting a subscription to Thrive Market means access to healthier snacks, which leads to feeling more energized and better studying.A long-lasting backpack that'll look good on campus, in the airport, and at job interviewsHerschelLittle America Backpack, available at Herschel, $109.99Typical backpacks work great for class, but what about everything that happens outside of class? Having a sturdy backpack that's well-suited for traveling and job interviews helps a ton. Herschel's Little America ($109.99) is a great option because it's versatile, sturdy, and stylish. Similarly, the Dagne Dover backpack ($200) is specifically designed for a woman's body and is made to store everything you need and go anywhere you go. productsIf the student is a total tote person and doesn't touch backpacks, the Longchamp Le Pliage Shoulder Bag ($155) is a staple for students and young workers alike.An aroma diffuser to set the moodGrove CollaborativeGrove Collaborative Ultrasonic Aromatherapy Diffuser, $39.95An aroma diffuser delivers calming, in-home aromatherapy and is a great fragrance option for dorms where candles usually aren't allowed. This one from Grove Collaborative diffuses essential oils for up to five hours at a time, has LED light options, and elegantly blends into any room thanks to its minimalistic ceramic design.A weighted blanket that'll change the way you sleepTranquilityTranquility Weighted Blanket, available at Target, $49Every college student ever has needed better sleep. Weighted blankets apply a calming pressure on you, making it easier to fall asleep and wake up more rested. The great thing about Tranquility's weighted blanket is how perfectly-sized it is to move from bed to couch, how it's sized to fit a standard dorm twin XL bed, and how easily washable it is.A foolproof planner to keep everything in orderDay DesignerWeekly Planner, available on Day Designer, $59A planner keeps them organized between all their assignments, exams, events, and so much more. Day Designer makes luxurious planners that students love. Planners come in daily or weekly options which each have space for all your checklists and schedules plus extra pages for goal setting, future planning, and notes.The most comfortable socks college students can ownBombasWomen's Ankle Sock 4-Pack, available at Bombas, $47.50Men's Ankle Sock 4-Pack, available at Bombas, $47.50Bombas makes the best socks on the market. They benefit from upgrades like a supportive honeycomb stitch, blister tabs built into ankle-height styles, and a Y-stitched heel and "invisitoe" that minimizes annoying bumps. Even if it seems like socks aren't an exciting gift, comfort is pretty much always a hit in college. Plus, for every pair purchased, Bombas donates a specially designed sock to someone in need.A cult-favorite tumbler to keep their drinks just the right temperature for hoursHydro FlaskHydro Flask 40 oz.Water Bottle, available at Hydro Flask, from $37.46This HydroFlask will keep cold drinks cold for up to 24 hours and hot drinks hot for up to 12 hours with the lid on, perfect for when they need coffee for a long night studying.Great coffee from all over the world to help them stay energizedAtlas Coffee ClubAtlas Coffee 3-month Subscription, $55If they drink coffee, they'll likely drink a fair amount of it during college. And it's really nice to have a good cup. Atlas Coffee is a monthly subscription that's sort of like a worldwide coffee tour — bringing the best single-origin coffee (with a postcard from its origin country) to your door. They'll also get brewing tips and flavor notes. A book that helps them build good habits and break bad onesAmazonAtomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones, available at Amazon, $11.98Many college students are trying to map out what they want out of life and how to build the habits that get them where they want to go. In the popular book "Atomic Habits," James Clear, an expert on habit formation, teaches practical strategies for building lasting habits (and ditching detrimental ones). Popular wireless over-ear headphones for quality noise-canceling during studying and working outAmazonBeats Solo3 Wireless Noise Cancelling On-Ear Headphones, available at Amazon, $129.95If there's one thing every college student needs, it's good wireless headphones. This Beats pair has rich sound and up to 40 hours of listening time. And if they let the battery run out, a five-minute charge converts to three hours of playback.If they're a runner and need something lightweight and in-ear, you should opt for Jaybird Vista.An inexpensive way to get the iced coffee they love at homeAmazonTakeya Patented Deluxe Cold Brew Coffee Maker, available on Amazon, $24.99If the student you're thinking of drinks coffee — and there's a very good chance they do — having access to one of the best cold brew contraptions will be a gift that keeps on giving. A cold brew machine means you can go 4-5 days in a row without brewing another pot. It's also easy to clean. Find a full review here.A waterproof speaker that can bring the bassJBLJBL FLIP5 Bluetooth Speaker, available at B&H Photo, $129.95A Bluetooth speaker is a must-have: it helps set the mood for study nights and helps bring the party to life whenever you're hosting. JBL's Flip 5 speaker is the best choice. It has vibrantly booming bass, lasts for up to 12 hours without a charge, and is waterproof.Clothes and shoes for their upcoming interviews and presentationsEverlaneThe Oversized Blazer, available at Everlane, from $185Rebecca Allen Classic Pump, available at Nordstrom, $165Other Stories Wool Coat, available at Other Stories, $279College is full of big meetings, big presentations, and nerve-wracking interviews. For days when sweatpants aren't an option and something more formal is needed, these are some great options for women's staples. We've also created a list of our personal favorite workwear stores — plus the best styles to buy from each one. A nice watch they can wear to internshipsMVMTGunmetal Sandstone, Men, available at MVMT, $138Lexington, Women, available at MVMT, $128MVMT makes beautiful watches for men and women at great prices, and they feel more contemporary to wear than most on the market. It's a versatile, sentimental gift you can feel good about giving because you know they'll feel good — and perhaps more put-together — wearing it. One of the best tablets, which makes note-taking, entertainment, and everything else so much betterBest Buy2021 Apple iPad, available at Amazon, $479 If you go on a college campus today, you'll probably see iPads all over the place — and for a good reason. These slim rectangular boxes are bundles of joy for students. They make note-taking, e-reading, Netflix, and leisure drawing easy to do all in one place. The new 256GB iPad ($479) will make an unforgettable gift. If you want to take it up a notch, the highly-coveted and ultrafast 11" iPad Pro ($899) is even better.If they already have an iPad, you can think about getting them an Apple Pencil ($129), which will level up their gadget even more.A key-, wallet-, and iPhone-finderAmazonTile Mate with Replaceable Battery, 4-Pack, available at Amazon, $69.99You can't go wrong with a tracker for their keys, wallet, or phone. The Tile Mate is compact, thoughtful, and useful for everyone — especially an oft-frazzled college student. A bed frame that can easily move with themLauren Savoie/InsiderThuma Bed Frame, available at Thuma, from $995A good bed frame is the foundation of good sleep and this one by Thuma features interlocking Japanese joinery that makes it incredibly sturdy but easy to disassemble, move, and store. It's a great option for young adults on the move, especially if they're moving into older or smaller buildings. The most popular FitbitFitbitFitbit Charge 4 Fitness Activity Tracker, available on Amazon, from $122.21The Charge 4 offers stellar activity tracking (average and current pace, heart rate zones, calories burned, etc.) in a smaller footprint than a smartwatch and at a budget-friendly price point. Plus, it has a week-long battery life.A smartphone-sized travel photo printerStaplesFujifilm Instax Mini Link Bluetooth Photo Printer, available at Target, Apple, and Best Buy, from $99.95Mini portable Bluetooth printers make turning iPhone photos into tangible memories quick and easy — which is especially convenient for decorating their room. All they'll have to do is download the app (which also has internal PhotoShop elements and features like themed stickers and collages) and connect via Bluetooth. *This product is currently out of stock. Their favorite comfort foodsGoldbellyGoldbelly food gifts, available from $25Goldbelly makes it possible to satisfy their most specific and nostalgic cravings no matter where they live in the US — a cheesecake from Junior's, deep dish pizza from Lou Malnati, and more. Browse the iconic gifts section for inspiration.A media streamer that transforms a normal TV into a smart oneAmazonRoku Ultra 4K/HDR/HD Streaming Player, available at Amazon, $69Most college students aren't forking over a monthly payment to cable. This streaming player is, overall, the best one you can buy, and it transforms an otherwise ordinary TV into one that can stream shows and movies from Netflix, Hulu, HBO Now, Prime Video, and others all in one spot.  One of the all-time best facial cleansers for a clean and effective routineFOREOLuna 2 Facial Cleansing Device, Men, available at FOREO, $169.95Luna 2 Facial Cleansing Device, Women, available at FOREO, $169.95FOREO's cult-favorite Luna 2 cleansing device gently and effectively cleans with thin, antimicrobial silicone touch points, and it removes 98.5% of dirt and makeup residue without irritating the skin. Plus, it's 100% waterproof and the battery life lasts for a few months per charge. Find a full review from a female reporter and a male reporter here.A 10-minute breakfast that will save them money and timeAmazonDash Rapid Egg Cooker, available at Target, $15.99The Dash Rapid Egg Cooker looks gimmicky but is actually deceptively useful. It's compact and makes virtually every kind of egg (hard-boiled, poached, scrambled, or an omelet) perfectly, and in under 10 minutes. Trendy and convenient Apple AirPodsAppleApple AirPods with Wireless Charging Case, available at Best Buy, $149.99If you're after the title of their favorite relative of the year, here's a good place to start. AirPods are both easy to use and functional as well as trendy. The newer generation of AirPods can be purchased on Amazon for $200, but we also liked the earlier generation (which is slightly cheaper).A comfy Patagonia pullover they'll rely on a lotPatagoniaLightweight Synchilla Snap-T Pullover, Men, available at Patagonia, $119Women's Better Sweater 1/4-Zip Fleece, available at Patagonia, $119It's a good bet that many of their peers will also have this Snap-T pullover from Patagonia. It and the Better Sweater are long-held favorites, and both are comfortable classics that they'll no doubt come to rely upon. A Patagonia sweater is also a particularly good gift for students who are invested in sustainability. The company has been turning plastic bottles into polyester for its clothing since 1993, and continues to do so today.The world's comfiest shoesAllbirds/InstagramWool Runners, Men, available at Allbirds, $98Wool Runners, Women, available at Allbirds, $98Startup Allbirds makes wildly popular shoes out of soft, sustainable materials. Their Runners made of super-soft merino wool have been nicknamed "the world's most comfortable shoes." You can find a full review here. A portable projector that's the size of a soda canAmazonAnker Nebula Capsule Smart Mini Projector, available at Amazon, $299.99Anker's Nebula Capsule is a powerful and versatile mini projector, and its portability makes it a great option for college students who want a cozy movie-viewing experience in the comfort of their own room. It's 1 pound and the size of a soda can, but it has surprisingly crisp image quality and 360-degree sound. It's also quiet and has a continuous playtime of four hours. Find a full review here.College merchandise for school spiritAmerican EagleShop American Eagle's Tailgate ApparelParticularly if they're going to a school with a big sports team, you can be sure they'll both need and appreciate all the fan gear. A great game for a night in with friendsAmazonCards Against Humanity, available at Amazon, $25Grab a fun card game they'll inevitably end up pulling out to play with friends on the weekend nights and snow days. Check out What Do You Meme, too.A Brooklinen gift card for really nice sheetsBrooklinenGift Card, available at Brooklinen, from $50Few things sound so nice as comfortable, beautiful sheets that you don't need to buy for yourself. Brooklinen is one of our favorite startups to shop at, and we ranked their sateen cotton sheets (from $122) the best luxury sheets you can buy.A funny but useful book full of expert and student advice on everything from finances to relationships and dorm lifeAmazonThe Naked Roommate: And 107 Other Issues You Might Run Into in College, available at Amazon, $10.19For everything from sharing a bathroom with 40 strangers to social network do's and don'ts, this funny but useful New York Times bestseller runs the gamut. A monthly subscription of personalized new makeup, haircare, and skincare samples delivered to their doorBirchbox Man/InstagramBirchbox Three Month Subscription, available at Birchbox, $45College students like to look and feel good, but tight budgets aren't conducive to trying a lot of new, (and often expensive) grooming products. Birchbox sends samples of new and beloved products once a month, so they can test out new finds and discover products they may want to buy a full size of in the future. It's also just fun to get a monthly gift that's all about them. An Echo Dot with a built-in clockAmazonEcho Dot 4th Gen with Clock, available on Amazon, $34.99The newest Echo Dot is more convenient than ever. The all-new design features a larger speaker for better audio, a digital clock to display the time and timer countdowns, and all of Alexa's other skills. A savvy suitcase for traveling on holiday breaksAway/FacebookCarry-On, available at Away, from $225Away's hyper-popular suitcases deserve their hype. Their hard shell is lightweight but durable, their 360-degree spinner wheels make for seamless traveling, and the external (and ejectable and TSA-compliant) battery pack included can charge a smartphone five times over so they never have to sit behind a trash can at the airport for access to an outlet again. It's also guaranteed for life by Away. Find our full review here.We also recommend Calpak. A book about capitalizing on the huge choices to make in your 20sAmazonThe Defining Decade: Why Your Twenties Matter — And How to Make the Most of Them Now, available at Amazon, $3.62The decisions you make in your 20s can greatly impact the rest of your life. The best defense is a good offense and your grad should know now, before any life-altering events crop up, how to get the most out of their "defining decade."An Amazon Prime membershipTommaso Boddi / Getty ImagesGift an Amazon Prime membership, $119An Amazon Prime membership is one of those things that immediately makes life easier and ultimately better. If you decide to gift one, the recipient will enjoy free two-day shipping; access to the Prime Now app, which provides free two-hour delivery on tens of thousands of items; Prime Video, Amazon's streaming video service; Prime Music; the Kindle Lending Library; Prime Reading; Prime Audible Channels; unlimited photo storage, and more.If you want to see how Amazon Prime ($119 for the year) actually gives you a lot more than free shipping, you can read about the benefits of the service here.A candle to remind college students of their favorite place or hometownAmazonHomesick Scented Candle, available at Uncommon Goods, $34If they're away from family or friends, a reminder of home is a wonderful thing to have around. The best electric toothbrushAmazonOral-B White Pro 1000, available at Best Buy, $39.99We rated this the best electronic toothbrush you can buy. Childlike cereal for adultsMagic SpoonFour Flavors, available at Magic Spoon, $39Magic Spoon is a new "childlike cereal for adults" that's high in protein and low in sugar — and all four flavors are delicious. Here's one way to show college kids it's completely possible to transition to adulthood without losing all the joy of being a kid. You can read more in a personal review here. Framed memoriesFramebridgeGift Card or Frame a Memory, available at Framebridge, from $25Help them honor some of their best memories — whether it's from friends now studying across the country, family, or best-loved locales. Framebridge is relatively affordable, but decor is one of the luxuries plenty of college students shirk to save elsewhere — even though it can make their home a much more inviting, happy place.A monogrammed leather shave bag so students can keep all their things in one placeLeatherologyLeatherology Small Shave Bag, available at Leatherology, from $90 (available for monogram for $10)The dreaded truth of college is that you'll most likely need to schlep your shower belongings to a communal area if you live in the dorms. No one wants to rely on a plastic shower caddy to do that. Grab them a leather shave bag that they'll use for years to come — they probably wouldn't justify the expense on their own, and they'll be grateful to have it. If you're looking for a chic aesthetic, Dagne Dover also makes a great neoprene toiletry bag named the Hunter (from $35) that's built to accommodate makeup. If they have a lot of toiletries, you'll probably want to get the large size for $55.The most comfortable lounge pants we've ever tried for lazy weekend morningsMeUndiesThe Lounge Pant, Men, available at MeUndies, $68The Lounge Pant, Women, available at MeUndies, $68MeUndies is a popular LA startup that makes some of the most comfortable underwear we've ever tried. Their lounge pants, however, are the real hidden gem — perfect for lounging around on weekend mornings, and they're sleek enough to avoid feeling too unkempt.The best pillow you can buyCoop Home GoodsPremium Adjustable Memory Foam Pillow, available at Coop Home Goods and Amazon, from $63.99Make sure they're optimizing their sleep with the best pillow you can buy. Thanks to the shredded memory foam, they'll get the support and comfortable "sinking in" sensation of a traditional memory foam pillow, but none of the excessive heat or firmness that can be a problem with solid foam. Read more in our Buying Guide here.A gift card to ClassPass so they can go to tons of boutique fitness classes without the expenseClassPass/InstagramGift Card, available at ClassPass, from $50Boutique fitness classes are expensive. ClassPass makes them less so. If they like to be active, are looking for a newfound favorite class, or like yoga as much as boxing classes, this is a great gift they'll actually use — and applies to virtual classes until in-person ones are safe again.A custom poster of their favorite placeGrafomapGift a customized Grafomap poster, from $49Commemorate their college town, hometown, or favorite place in the world with this customizable graphic map so they can keep it with them wherever life takes them.A hyper-useful extra-long, reinforced phone chargerAmazonNative Union 10-Foot Extra-Long Charging Cable with Leather Strap, available at Amazon, $34.99If they're going to be tethered to devices, you may as well give them a long leash. This long charging cable means no matter where one is, they'll have power — and they won't have to sit at the foot of their bed to reach it. A gym bag that can transition to a professional settingNordstromHerschel Supply Co. Novel Duffel Bag, available at Nordstrom, $90Just like bringing a beat-up JanSport everywhere, lugging an old nylon gym bag isn't ideal for anyone looking for versatile use. Herschel Supply Co. makes reliable, long-lasting bags, and this one has a separate compartment for gym or dress shoes. A microwave-safe ramen cooker for the most stressful or time-crunched nightsAmazonRapid Ramen Cooker, available at Amazon, $10.99There will be plenty of late nights filled with cheap and tasty ramen. If they're going to eat it anyway, at least let them make it quickly and perfectly every time.A super soft throw blanket they'll find themselves cocooned time and time againAmazonBEDSURE Sherpa Fleece Blanket, available at Amazon, from $26.99Grab their favorite candy, this sherpa-lined fleece blanket with over 4,400 five-star reviews on Amazon, and a Hulu gift card to make their nights in actually fun.Gift cards — perhaps the best gift you can give a cash-strapped college studentWhole Foods Market FacebookWhat a stressed, broke college student needs most is money and probably a hug. If you're looking for a way to gift maximum convenience, gift cards are a surprisingly thoughtful way to do that — either for their favorite restaurant, transportation, school books, or music to keep them occupied during long study hours. Check out more gift card gifts here. Everything: Visa Gift Card / Amazon Gift Card / Gift Amazon Prime MembershipCoffee: Starbucks Gift CardSchool books: Amazon Gift Card Entertainment: Netflix Gift Card / Hulu Gift Card / Sling Gift Card / StubHub gift cardTransportation: Uber Gift CardDecoration: Framebridge Gift CardFurniture: Amazon Gift Card / Wayfair Gift CardMusic: Spotify Gift CardSheets: Brooklinen Gift CardGroceries and food: Whole Foods Gift Card / Chipotle Gift CardClothes: Nordstrom Gift Card / Everlane Gift CardTech: Best Buy Gift CardTravel: Delta Gift Card / Airbnb Gift CardRead the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytDec 16th, 2021

Futures Ramp On China Stimulus Hopes Ahead Of Central Bank Barrage

Futures Ramp On China Stimulus Hopes Ahead Of Central Bank Barrage U.S. futures rose again, starting the Santa rally predicted over the weekend by Goldman, after the underlying index surged to a record on Friday with risk appetite returning ahead of this week’s barrage of central bank meetings including the Fed on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England and ECB. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.4% as major technology and internet stocks rose in premarket trading with Apple inching closer to a $3 trillion market valuation; S&P 500 futures rose 11 points or 0.2%; with Dow Jones futures also rising 0.2%. Chinese developers’ bonds and shares experienced a wave of selling after the sudden plunge in Shimao Group's notes restarted concern over the health of the sector 10-year Treasury yields inched lower to 1.4684% and the dollar pushed higher. Bitcoin extended losses toward $48,000 as Binance bailed on plans for a Singapore exchange. Traders pared bets that the BOE will raise rates next year as concerns over fresh Covid restrictions outweighed inflation fears. Risk sentiment got a boost from predictions China will start adding fiscal stimulus in early 2022, said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote. “The chances of a massive hawkish surprise are limited, and the actual expectation doesn’t interfere with equity investors’ craving for a Santa rally to close a record-breaking year with one last record,” she wrote. Indeed, as we have been expecting for much of the past 6 months, China’s top decision makers last week signaled policies may become more supportive of growth next year. Economists predict China will start adding fiscal stimulus in early 2022. US stocks close Friday at a new record after in-line inflation data did not surprise to the upside for the first time in months and spurred bets that the Federal Reserve won’t have to accelerate plans to tighten monetary policy. That came amid a backdrop of uncertainty from the omicron coronavirus variant, a factor that traders are likely to also monitor closely as the week starts. Volatility should remain high as several central banks will decide on interest rates this week, Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades, said in written comments. The “policies should set the trading tone, providing investors with more clues on next year’s investing environment.” The Federal Reserve on Wednesday is expected to speed up stimulus withdrawal and perhaps open the door to earlier interest-rate hikes in 2022 if price pressures stay near a four-decade peak. After repeated jawboning, it would be a major surprise if the bank doesn't announce a faster tapering, and the bond market will have to adapt to the new approach. “Global equities had a solid run last week and we’ll see if the goodwill lasts into what is a behemoth when it comes to event risk,” Chris Weston, head of research with Pepperstone Financial Pty Ltd., wrote in a note. Omicron and the Fed should dictate sentiment, he added. Meanwhile, in the world of covid, at least 30 U.S. states have reported omicron cases, with Anthony Fauci of course stepping up calls for boosters to increase protection and making pharma CEOs even richer. That said, all cases for which there's available information were asymptomatic or mild, European health chiefs said. That did not stop Boris Johnson from warning that the U.K. faces a tidal wave of infections and set a year-end deadline for its booster program. South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa tested positive. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today: Arena Pharmaceuticals soars after Pfizer agrees to buy it for $100/Shr in Cash Apple shares rose 1%, leaving the stock close to hitting $3t market capitalization if the move holds. Airbnb, Lucid, Zscaler and Datadog shares all rise in U.S. premarket trading with the companies set to be added to the Nasdaq 100 index later this month. Peloton Interactive shares gain after the home-exercise firm put out an advert responding to a scene in the TV show “And Just Like That...” where a character dies using its product. The stock closed 5.4% lower on Friday, the day after the episode aired. TherapeuticsMD fell 25% in premarket trading after the FDA said it couldn’t approve revisions to some manufacturing testing limits for the Annovera birth-control ring requested by the company through a supplemental new drug application. European stocks also advanced, led by technology and mining stocks. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose as much as 1%, DAX outperforming at the margin.  In the U.K., traders are paring back bets on Bank of England rate hikes over the next year as concerns over fresh Covid restrictions outweigh inflation fears. Asian stocks erased an early advance as deepening losses in shares of Chinese property developers and persistent concerns over the omicron coronavirus variant soured sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.2% after having climbed as much as 0.8%. Equity benchmarks in India and South Korea led regional declines. While stocks in China and Hong Kong rallied in morning trade on signals policies may become more pro-growth next year, the Hang Seng Index erased a gain of as much as 1.6%. That was owing to a selloff in real estate names after a plunge in the bonds and shares of Shimao Group sparked renewed concern over the health of the sector. Monday’s trading in Asia also highlighted investor caution as markets confront potential economic risks from omicron’s spread and a series of central bank meetings this week, including the Federal Reserve. The Fed on Wednesday is expected to speed up stimulus withdrawal and perhaps open the door to earlier interest-rate hikes in 2022 if price pressures stay near a four-decade peak. “We are in the last three weeks of the year -- no investor is going to place new bets and are more likely to be taking profits off the table,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Any negative news will be taken as a reason to press the sell button.” Meanwhile, China’s stocks climbed for the fourth day in five after the nation’s annual economic conference ended Friday with a vow to ensure “stability” and “front load” policies. Foreign investors on Monday added to record purchases of mainland shares last week. Focus now shifts to data due later in the week, including industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment. India’s benchmark stock index dropped, with a fall in Reliance Industries Ltd. weighing on the market. The S&P BSE Sensex slipped 0.9% to close at 58,283.42 in Mumbai, reversing gains of as much as 0.7%. The index had posted its best weekly performance since mid-October on Friday. The NSE Nifty 50 Index also fell 0.8% on Monday. Still, a measure of small-cap companies gained 0.2%. Reliance, the nation’s most valuable company, dropped 2%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex, 23 fell and seven rose. All but one of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a gauge of energy companies. “Selling is more evident in benchmark indices as overseas investors are booking at least a part of their profits ahead of the U.S. Fed’s rate-setting meeting that is likely to speed up the policy normalization process,” Abhay Agarwal, founder of Mumbai-based Piper Serica Advisors Pvt., an investment management company with assets of 5 billion rupees under management, said by phone.  The Fed.’s policy announcement is due Wednesday, where it is expected to speed up stimulus withdrawal and perhaps open the door to earlier interest-rate hikes in 2022. “Post-event, we expect to see a reallocation, though at a slower pace as FPIs will factor in the possible hike in interest rates, apart from the tapering of stimulus,” Agarwal said. Locally, the government will release its consumer inflation print for the month of November later on Monday. Inflation likely rose to 5.1% year-on-year in November from 4.5% in the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey. Fixed income drifts higher with bund and UST curves bull flattening. Treasury yields were lower as the U.S. trading day begins, with the 10Y sliding to 1.46% and short-term little changed, prolonging the curve-flattening trend. With no U.S. economic data slated and Fed speakers silent ahead of Wednesday’s policy meeting, supply is a focal point, and Fed is slated to buy long-end sectors with no coupon supply until next week’s 20-year reopening. 10- to 30-year yields lower by about 1bp-2bp, 10-year by 1.5b at ~1.468%; 2- to 5-year yields little changed, narrowing 2s10s and 5s30s by 1bp-2bp.Peripheral spreads tighten slightly with short-dated BTPs leading a cautious move higher. Gilts bull steepen, trading ~2.5bps richer across the short end as money markets continue to price out hikes in light of the latest Covid restrictions. In FX, Bloomberg Dollar index drifts 0.3% higher, erasing Friday’s decline and rallying against all its peers with the focus on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting amid speculation officials might accelerate the pace of policy normalization. Flows in the spot market are running at 70% of the recent average, a Europe-based trader told Bloomberg. Volatility term structures in the major currencies remain inverted as the market awaits forward guidance that could shape trading for the better part of 2022 U.S. inflation data in line with expectations on Friday “almost certainly won’t change the balance-of-risk assessment for the Fed, and the communications of late expressing concern over inflation risks remain valid,” says MUFG’s Derek Halpenny. “The week starts quietly in terms of data today but it remains likely that the dollar will remain supported into the FOMC on Wednesday with anticipation high of some hawkish rhetoric to accompany the decision to speed up QE tapering.” GBP/USD fell 0.2% to 1.3244 after gaining 0.5% over the previous two sessions. The Bank of England is set to opt for caution over Covid rather than worries about inflation, pushing back its first rate increase since the pandemic into 2022, according to economists. U.K. Health Secretary Sajid Javid said there’s no certainty the government will be able to keep schools in England open, as it battles to contain the spread of the omicron Covid-19 variant.  “This week is interesting for GBP as markets scrutinize labor-market report tomorrow ahead of BOE,” said Christopher Wong, senior foreign-exchange strategist at Malayan Banking Bhd. in Singapore. “There are concerns unemployment will spike if workers are made redundant or if people cannot find jobs, and this labor report will provide the first assessment.” The Yen outperformed amid broad dollar strength; USD/JPY still up 0.2% at 113.69. AUD and NOK are the weakest in G-10.  Turkish lira crashed again, plunging to a new record low in early London trade with USD/TRY initially rallying over 6% to highs of 14.7590, before fading some of the move after another intervention from the Turkish central bank. In commodities, crude futures give back Asia’s gains; WTI is little changed near $71.78, Brent dips below $75.50. Spot gold holds a narrow range near $1,785/oz. Most base metals are in the green with LME aluminum outperforming.  Bitcoin once again failed to rise above $50,000, extending losses toward $48,000 as Binance bailed on plans for a Singapore exchange There are no major economic developments on today's calendar, but it's a busy week with about 20 central banks making monetary policy announcements, including the Fed, the BOE and ECB, and the divergence of their paths will be evident. Jerome Powell may turn more hawkish as he fights rising inflation, while the ECB joins China in leaning dovish and playing down soaring prices. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,728.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 478.82 MXAP down 0.2% to 193.62 MXAPJ down 0.3% to 630.93 Nikkei up 0.7% to 28,640.49 Topix up 0.1% to 1,978.13 Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 23,954.58 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,681.08 Sensex down 0.9% to 58,278.65 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,379.26 Kospi down 0.3% to 3,001.66 Brent Futures up 0.8% to $75.74/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,784.20 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.34% to 96.42 German 10Y yield little changed at -0.36% Euro down 0.4% to $1.1265 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Almost 20 central banks meet this week, including the world’s biggest. No surprise that volatility term structures in the major currencies remain inverted as the market awaits forward guidance that could shape trading for the better part of 2022 The Bank of Japan offered to buy 2 trillion yen ($17.6 billion) of government bonds under repurchase agreements after repo rates jumped to a two-year high Turkey’s central bank intervened in the market by selling FX after the lira tumbled past 14 to the dollar for the first time, piling pressure on a central bank that’s forecast to keep cutting interest rates this week despite rising inflation. The decline came after S&P Global Ratings lowered the outlook on the nation’s sovereign credit rating to negative on Friday, citing risks from the “extreme currency volatility” The ECB’s biggest decision this week is to decide if it can still call the current inflation spike “transitory.” The answer will have a huge bearing on the euro-area economy, which is already dealing with resurgent coronavirus infections, new restrictions and lockdowns, and uncertainty about the omicron variant ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos is self-isolating after testing positive for Covid-19 on Saturday, the ECB said in a statement posted on its website. Guindos hasn’t been in close contact with ECB President Christine Lagarde over the past week, according to the statement. The Spaniard, who is double- vaccinated and has very mild symptoms, will work from home until further notice Two doses of the Pfizer Inc. and AstraZeneca Plc. vaccines induced lower levels of antibodies against the omicron variant, increasing the risk of Covid infection, according to researchers from the University of Oxford. A more detailed breakdown of overnight news from Newsquawk Asia-Pac equity markets took their cues from last Friday’s gains on Wall Street where the S&P 500 notched a fresh record close and its best weekly performance since February, with markets now bracing for a risk-packed week including a busy schedule of central bank meetings. The ASX 200 (+0.4%) traded higher with risk appetite supported by the reopening of Australia’s borders to international students and skilled workers from Wednesday, while the government will also partially underwrite up to AUD 7bln in new loans for small businesses impacted by lockdowns. The Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) benefitted from the mild outflows from the JPY, with the index unphased by mixed Tankan and Machinery Orders data in which the Tankan Large Manufacturers Index and Outlook missed expectations but sentiment among Large Non-Manufacturers and Small Manufacturers improved for the sixth consecutive quarter. The Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) predominantly conformed to the upbeat mood amid economists' expectations for China to add fiscal stimulus from early next year following last week’s conclusion to the Central Economic Work Conference, which noted that China's economy faces shrinking demand, supply shock, and weakening expectations but added that economic operations are to be kept within a reasonable range. Alibaba shares were among the biggest gainers in Hong Kong as it extended its rebound from YTD lows. Finally, 10yr JGBs were rangebound with March futures contained by resistance at the key 152.00 level and amid the positive mood across riskier assets, although JGBs were off the lows seen late last week where there were source reports that the BoJ is likely to scale back its pandemic relief programs in March with a potential announcement as early as this week’s meeting. Top Asian News Shriram Units Merge to Form Largest India Retail Financier Intel to Spend $7 Billion on Big Malaysia Chipmaking Expansion Shimao Group Appoints Xie Kun as Executive Director Daimler Reveals Chinese Partner BAIC Raised Stake to Almost 10% Stocks in Europe have continued to gain since the cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.0%; Stoxx 600 +0.5%) as the APAC sentiment reverberates through the region following a fleeting blip lower in early European trade. US equity futures are also firmer but to a lesser magnitude – with the RTY (+0.3%) narrowly outpacing the ES (+0.%), NQ (+0.4%) and YM (+0.2%). Focus this week will be on the slew of central bank updates which kicks off with the FOMC on Wednesday, followed by the BoE and ECB on Thursday - with Flash PMIs, Christmas liquidity and Quad Witching also part of this week’s concoction. Add to that the potential tail-risk from geopolitics and headline risk from COVID. Nonetheless, European cash markets at the moment seem unfazed by what’s ahead. Sectors are pro-cyclical with Basic Resources and Autos topping the charts, whilst the defensive Healthcare, Telecoms and Personal & Household goods reside at the bottom. A recent Citi note suggests that rising earnings should keep European stocks moving higher and offset expansive valuations and tightening monetary policy in the US. Citi targets some 9% upside for the Stoxx 600 next year, with a target of 520 (vs current c.477), whilst 12% upside is targeted in the FTSE 100 to 8,200 (vs current c. 7,303). Citi leans in favour of cyclicals vs defensives - with overweights in Banks, Insurance, Basic Resources, Industrials, Media, Luxury Goods and Chemicals. Citi is underweight Utilities, Telecoms, Food & Beverages, Personal Care, Travel, Autos and Financial Services. The bank has also added to its focus list: AstraZeneca (+0.1%), Aviva (+0.7%), Capgemini (+1.2%), Faurecia (+0.9%), Iberdrola (-0.3%), Lloyds (-0.7%), Prosus (+1.5%), Royal Mail (+1.6%), Sanofi (Unch), Tesco (+0.4%), UBS (+0.2%), Vodafone (Unch), Volvo (+1.1%). Separately, Goldman Sachs sees muted returns for global stocks next year amid negative real rates coupled with high equity risk premia and in the absence of a growth shock. GS suggests that risks are growing in the US on a relative basis and sees a maximum drawdown of between -5 to -10% over the next 12 months. Top European News European Gas, Power Prices Surge on Nord Stream 2 Worries U.K. Says Can’t Rule Out Shutting Schools as Omicron Spreads UBS Global Wealth Management Discontinues USDTRY Coverage Vivendi Has ‘Never Been a Threat’ to Lagardere: Arnaud Lagardere In FX, the Greenback has clawed back all and a bit more of its post-US inflation data losses, partly on reflection perhaps that the CPI prints were broadly in line, and actually a tad above consensus in terms of the m/m headline rate, so highly unlikely to derail the Fed from upping the pace of QE tapering this week and probably won’t deter the more hawkish FOMC members from pencilling in a steeper lift-off. Hence, having ended Friday’s session fractionally below a Fib retracement level (96.098), the index subsequently eclipsed the intraday peak (96.429) to turn what was a bearish technical close into a constructive start to the new week within a 96.080-450 range and a ‘close’ above 96.500 would be deemed positive, if not bullish. CHF/EUR/AUD - Very little traction from latest signs of building inflation pressure in the Eurozone via German wholesale prices reaching a record high 16.6% y/y in November, but the Euro has held above 1.0400 against the Franc in wake of latest weekly Swiss sight deposits showing a rise in domestic bank balances. Meanwhile, the single currency has absorbed some stops triggered on a breach of 1.1265 vs the Buck and could derive underlying support from decent option expiry interest at 1.1250 (1.5 bn) at the base of a band extending to 1.1320 (2 bn) through 1.1270-1.1300 (1.1 bn), and Usd/Chf is hovering around 0.9250 at the upper end of a 0.9257-00 band ahead of producer/import prices on Tuesday. Elsewhere, the Aussie has not been able to benefit from good news in the form of Australia opening its borders to international students and skilled workers from Wednesday, Government plans to partially underwrite up to Aud 7 bn new loans for small businesses impacted by lockdowns, or buoyant risk appetite, as it straddles 0.7150 against its US counterpart. JPY/NZD/CAD/GBP - Also conceding ground to their US peer, with the Yen back below 113.50 and hardly helped by mixed Japanese macro releases including December’s Tankan survey and October machinery orders, while the Kiwi is back under 0.6800 even though NZ PM Ardern said the COVID-19 alert level for Auckland is to be eased on December 30 and the next review is scheduled for January 17. The Loonie is slipping alongside WTI between 1.2753-06 parameters and Cable has tested Fib support into 1.3200 at 1.3200 amidst ongoing UK political furore over Conservative Party transgressions during lockdown last year and heightened Omicron restrictions to prevent a tidal wave of infections. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures have been drifting lower since the European morning after the former tested USD 73/bbl to the upside and the latter briefly topped USD 76/bbl. Newsflow for the complex has been light but there have been further positive omens regarding the Iranian nuclear talks - Iran’s top nuclear negotiator said good progress was made in nuclear talks and can quickly pave the way for serious negotiations, whilst Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister said they have reason to anticipate some progress. That being said, we are yet to hear from some of the western nations. Meanwhile, on the OPEC front, Iraq’s Oil Minister said he expects OPEC to maintain its current policy of gradual monthly increases of 400k BPD at the next meeting – slated for early January. On the COVID front, the UK opted not to further tighten restrictions over the weekend but instead boosted the booster programme, whilst reports surrounding the Omicron variant have all highlighted a mild illness. The geopolitical space may require some more attention as tensions remain high on the Ukraine/Russia and Taiwan/China front, with the US involved in both. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, according to reports this morning, said if the US and NATO do not provide them with guarantees around security, it may lead to confrontation – and emphasised that the lack of progress on this would lead to a military response. Further, there were reports that Saudi Arabia and Iran held security talks. Ahead, the monthly OPEC oil market report is due to be released, but focus this week will likely remain on the slew of central bank meetings. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are constrained to recent ranges ahead of a risk-packed week, with the former still in a purgatory zone below its 50 DMA (1,789/oz), 200 DMA (1,793/oz) and 100 DMA (1,795/oz). Meanwhile, LME copper is firmer on the mild market optimism but has receded south of the USD 9,500/t mark. US Event Calendar Nothing major scheduled DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap We had our first Xmas lunch yesterday with my golf club hosting Santa (arriving on a golf buggy up the 18th fairway) and welcoming kids to the dinning room. I spent the whole lunch worrying their behaviour would get me black balled and banned from golf. Before we went my wife and I took lateral flow tests and Maisie asked if this was to stop Santa getting the virus? She then asked who would deliver all the presents if he had to self isolate. I must admit that I thought this was a very good question, especially as she’s starting to slowly question his existence. I said it was likely ok as Santa had just got his booster as he is over 50. I remember when the third week of December was one long string of Xmas client lunches that you desperately tried the leave as early as you could politely do so even if that was 8pm. This week they’ll be no time for lunches and we’ll be glued to our screens with just the eight G20 central banks deciding on monetary policy. The Fed’s decision on Wednesday will be key of course, with anticipation that they might accelerate the tapering of their asset purchases, but there’s also the ECB and Bank of England meetings to watch out for as well. All of them are very much “live” meetings. Elsewhere the flash PMIs for December (Thursday) could give us an initial indication as to how increased restrictions have begun to affect economic activity. US retail sales and UK CPI (both Wednesday) might be other interesting data points. Reviewing the main highlights in more details now. The Fed’s decision on Wednesday will be the focal point of the week. In terms of what to expect, our US economists write in their preview (link here) that they anticipate a doubling in the pace of tapering, which would bring the monthly drawdown of Treasury and MBS to $20bn and $10bn per month respectively. That would see the process of tapering conclude in March, giving them greater optionality for an earlier liftoff. Bear in mind that this meeting will also see the release of the latest dot plot, as well as the projections for inflation, growth and unemployment. On that, our economists see the median dot in 2022 likely showing two rate hikes, with risks of more, up from September when only half the dots saw any hikes by the end of 2022. The ECB’s decision will then follow on Thursday. In our European economists’ preview (link here) they write that until the arrival of the Omicron variant, the ECB appeared on track to initiate a transition to a monetary policy stance based more on policy rates and rates guidance and less on liquidity provision. They were also set to create a policy framework with more optionality to better respond to inflation uncertainties. The Omicron variant reinforces the need for optionality, but until there’s greater clarity on what it means for the pandemic and the recovery, the ECB may stall the expected decisions in part or in whole until early 2022. As with the Fed, it’ll be interesting to see the December staff forecasts on inflation, which could influence the market view on lift-off timing. The Bank of England’s decision will then take place on Thursday, and our UK economist expects the MPC will raise Bank Rate by +15bps to 0.25%. In the preview (link here) it argues that news of the Omicron variant has changed little on the medium-term economic outlook, with the labour market remaining as tight as it has been in recent memory, and inflation continuing to outpace staff forecasts. Nevertheless, the risks to this view are finely balanced, and risk management considerations may lead them to delay a rate hike, as they instead opt to find out more information on Omicron’s impact. Finally on the central bank front, the Bank of Japan will be holding their final monetary policy meeting of the year on Friday. In our economist’s preview (link here), it says that although there had been an expectation that the bank would revise their special pandemic corporate financing support program at this meeting, the emergence of the Omicron variant has changed the situation. Given the next meeting is only a month later, the view is now that they’ll maintain a wait-and-see stance in this meeting and adjust the policy in January, although a revision remains possible this week if more positive evidence is found on the new variant. Moving on to the data, the main highlight will be the flash PMIs for December from around the world on Thursday which will offer an initial indication as to whether there’s been any economic reaction yet to rise in restrictions and the emergence of the Omicron variant. There’ll also be an increasing amount of hard data out of the US for November, including retail sales (Wednesday), industrial production, housing starts and building permits (all Thursday). In China, Wednesday will see the release of their own retail sales and industrial production data for November, and in Germany on Friday there’s the Ifo’s business climate indicator for December. Finally on the inflation side, releases will include the US PPI data for November tomorrow, along with the UK and Canadian CPI readings for November on Wednesday. Late on Friday the UK released a paper looking at vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron variant. The good news is it suggested those who’d been boosted at least a couple of weeks ago still had decent protection, with 3 doses of Pfizer offering 75.5% effectiveness against symptomatic disease, and those who’d had two doses of AstraZeneca followed by a Pfizer booster had 71.4% effectiveness. Those are both lower than the 90+% effectiveness against delta with a booster, but is still much better than some of the worst outcomes had feared. Furthermore, if the past variants are anything to go by, then the protection against severe disease and hospitalisation could be even higher. However, the bad news is it indicated those who’ve been double-jabbed for some months now have significantly waning protection against this new variant from a purely symptomatic basis without a booster, so this will only encourage governments to ramp up their booster campaigns. The UK last night accelerated their plans to get all over 18s offered a booster. It’s now by the end of the year which will be a Herculean task. This follows PM Johnson last night telling the nation that there’s a tidal wave of Omicron cases coming. The government expects it to become the dominant strain very soon in what will be an incredibly short space of time. Overnight in Asia, markets are trading notably higher with the CSI (+1.31%), Hang Seng (+1.01%), Shanghai Composite (+1.00%), the Nikkei (+0.89%) and KOSPI (+0.28%) all strong after China's policymakers' hinted at more stimulus at the end of annual Central Economic Work Conference on Friday. Indeed our economists suggest that this is the decisive policy shift that markets have been waiting for and believe it’s a big deal. See their report on it here. This optimism is being reflected in the near 6% jump in Iron Ore trading overnight. DM futures are indicating a positive start to markets in the US and Europe with S&P 500 (+0.37%) and DAX (+0.44%) futures both in the green. Looking back at last week now and the focus remained squarely on Omicron, where the lack of any concrete bad news lent a more optimistic tone. This modestly improved risk sentiment sent equities and yields higher, and pushed volatility lower with the VIX ending the week -11.88 ppts lower at 18.79. The S&P 500 and Stoxx 600 gained +3.82% and +2.76% over the week (+0.95% and -0.30% Friday respectively). Cyclical sectors and tech stocks led the gains in the US. The small cap Russell 2000 advanced +2.43% (-0.38% Friday) while the Nasdaq climbed +3.61% (+0.73% Friday). The optimism also pushed yields higher and yield curves slightly steeper, with the 10yr treasury gaining +14.1bps this week after a poor close the previous week (-1.5bps Friday) and 10yr bunds climbing +5.1bps (+0.7bps Friday). The 2s10s treasury curve steepened +7.2bps (+1.6bps Friday). Ahead of the Fed’s meeting this week, the market is pricing the first full Fed rate hike by June. In the world of central banking, the Bank of Canada kept policy on hold and reinforced expectations for their inflation target to be sustainably achieved in the middle of 2022, enabling policy rate hikes. Like most DM central banks, they are focused on persistently elevated inflation, which they ascribe to supply constraints that will take time to alleviate. The Reserve Bank of Australia also left its benchmark interest rate unchanged while cautioning that price pressures remain subdued, in contrast to the rest of the DM space. In China, the PBoC cut the required reserve ratio by -50bps to support the economy, while FX reserve ratio was lifted +2.0% to lean against an appreciating renminbi. Property developers Evergrande and Kaisa defaulted on dollar debt. Chinese officials asserted the defaults would be dealt with “in a market-oriented way”. Geopolitical rumblings out of Europe also garnered focus. Presidents Biden and Putin held a phone call to discuss tensions following the build-up of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border. The readouts following the call offered few details but signalled both sides would follow up. President Biden has cautioned severe economic sanctions would be levied should Russia invade Ukraine, including sanctions on Putin’s inner circle, energy companies, and banks. The US would also consider severing Russian access to the US-run international payments system, SWIFT. On Friday, US CPI increased 0.8% and core US CPI increased 0.5% month-over-month in November, with the headline reading a tenth ahead of expectations. Commensurate year-over-year readings were 6.8% and 4.9%, the highest readings since 1982 and 1991, respectively. Measures of underlying and trend inflation continued to move higher, suggesting the Fed’s recent hawkish pivot will continue to be embraced by policymakers. Tyler Durden Mon, 12/13/2021 - 07:56.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeDec 13th, 2021

The Value of Play-to-Earn

An evolution of gaming, a pyramid scheme, or the missing link to mass blockchain adoption? Play games, get paid. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more This is the underlying message of play-to-earn, the term given to the increasingly popular business model in the gaming ecosystem that provides players with a chance to earn […] An evolution of gaming, a pyramid scheme, or the missing link to mass blockchain adoption? Play games, get paid. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more This is the underlying message of play-to-earn, the term given to the increasingly popular business model in the gaming ecosystem that provides players with a chance to earn any form of in-game asset that can later be transferred to the world as a valuable resource. The most played such game is Splinterlands- think Pokémon cards meet World of Warcraft characters. Splinterlands gives its users the opportunity to earn cryptocurrency and NFTs while playing the game, which is the underlying principle of all current P2E games. But could it be this simple? Is play-to-earn the future, as the hype surrounding it will have us believe? Or is it a fad that is just too good to be true? Play-To-Earn, A Natural Evolution Of The Gaming Industry On one hand, play-to-earn seems like the natural evolution of an already booming gaming industry, one that represents a whopping $336 billion industry. Despite the elite handful of gamers who monetize their gaming, be it through live streams or lucrative sponsorship, the bulk of game-based economics have always been centralized, with the profits flowing into wallets of the gaming developers alone. Play to earn goes and pops this bubble, incentivizing gamers with a piece of the financial pie for the very first time. “We all love video gaming, but at the end of the day, it has always been a black hole for players financially. With the introduction of play to earn, games are no longer only valuable based solely on entertainment, add in cash flow and you have something truly revolutionary,” explains Jacob Steele, Software Developer at NFTyArcade. The Multi-Layered Value To Investors As these games experience rapid growth before our eyes, investors are getting on board and realizing the tremendous value potential that goes hand in hand with the convergence of entertainment and financial incentives. “By monetizing the games, you are drastically increasing revenue. Now players are not only participating, but benefitting from the system, and they will keep coming back as they get hooked on the notion of investotainment,” explains Venture Partner Andrew Batey. Instead of making $1 to $2 per user in a free-to-play gaming model, there is potential to make between $20 to $70. “We are looking at absolute behemoth gaming companies that will come out in the next few years,” Batey concludes. Yet investors are not only getting excited about P2E games themselves, but the possibilities surrounding play-to-earn. “Play-to-earn games will create whole ecosystems in their orbit,” observes Barak Rabinowitz, the Managing Partner at F2 Venture Capital. “Think marketplaces, game training platforms, gaming intelligence platforms, all taken to the next level of sophistication demanded by the opportunity to make money.” Although play-to-earn is still a new sector with many uncertainties around their sustainability, top-tier VCs are already hedging their bets, including Andreesen Horowitz who have doled out millions to companies in the space, like leading a $152 million investment round in Sky Mavis this October and the recently announced $200 million investment program to incubate early cryptocurrency-focused gaming projects by Animoca Brands. An Elaborate Pyramid Scheme? Yet, harsh skeptics remain. Despite developers, gamers, and even mainstream investors seeing the value in play-to-earn games, there are also those who compare the current play-to-earn models to nothing more than that of a Pyramid scheme. One such voice of caution is that of Ché Köhler, founder of South African business directory Niche Market who claims that “for now, this [model] works, because the number of new players joining each month is greater than the number of current players, meaning people can make their money back due to the number of greater fools to sell to thinking that are the early ones getting in cheap,” Following this logic, as soon as new user growth slows in these games, you will see fewer players wanting to hold tokens, tokens quickly losing their value, demand dropping, and many, many losers who got in too late. The Missing Link To Decentralized Finance One can argue that the early versions of play-to-earn games currently available are only scratching the surface of its potential. When speaking to those who are making a living off these games one can see the scale that this ‘surface’ represents. “D”, a Splinterlands whale who requested to remain anonymous, says he makes $10,000 a week playing the game through tournaments and renting out his cards to other players. “Owning your assets and competing for real prizes is here to stay, and will only grow over time. So find a game you enjoy playing and an ecosystem that you feel will treat you fairly, then get on it.” Play-to-earn is somewhat of a proof-of-concept for decentralized financial systems and an open creator economy. The genius of these games may not lie in their entertainment value (which I can concur after trying just one game myself). Rather, the true innovation of P2E is the transcendence of traditional propriety, or any permissions from centralized authority. A live demonstration of this is the Axie Infinity craze which became increasingly popular for players in the Philippine and Venezuela. So much so that their earnings proved far more significant than anything their local physical economy had to offer with stores in these areas accepting Axies tokens- smooth love potions (SLP)- as payment with no qualms. Like Farmville was the gateway to Facebook’s domination as the top social network, play-to-earn games could be the gateway to redefining financial services. “Play-to-earn is going to be the facilitator for wide-spread massive blockchain adoption across the world, it is a perfect solution specifically for crypto adoption in developing countries.” comments Steele. The P2E space is still in its infancy (much like home video game consoles in the late 80s/early 90s,) yet the sums of money both being invested and earned act as a small preview of the new model’s potential. If it does prove sustainable and delivers on the promise of paying gamers to do what they already enjoy doing, then not only will it serve as a massive bridge bringing millions of gamers into the world of decentralization, but it will turn the current $336B gaming entertainment market to a multi-trillion dollar investotainment industry. About the Author Yaffa is the Content Manager at F2 Venture Capital, responsible for creating multimedia content to engage and support their community of founders. Prior to F2, Yaffa worked as a writer and researcher at a business intelligence agency where she published content in top-tier media outlets and executed strategies to support client objectives. On the side, Yaffa is an active blogger for Hackernoon, The Times of Israel, and The Jerusalem Post. Updated on Dec 9, 2021, 10:28 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkDec 9th, 2021

The most notable streaming TV shows in the works based on video games, from "Halo" to HBO"s "The Last of Us"

Plenty of game-based shows like "Halo" at Paramount+, HBO's "The Last of Us," and Netflix's "Assassin's Creed" are in the works. The next chapter in the "Halo" video-game franchise, "Halo: Infinite."343 Industries Hollywood is mining video games for IP to boost streaming services.  Video-game movies have a history of flopping, but there are plenty of notable shows in the works. Game industry professionals Insider has spoken to think TV is the best medium for adaptations. When Sony's "Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City" opened in theaters over the Thanksgiving holiday, it flopped hard.The movie grossed $5.3 million in its first three-day weekend in the US. It's since made just $13 million domestically and $24 million worldwide. It's also received poor reviews and has a 28% Rotten Tomatoes critic score. It marks another commercial and critical failure for a video-game movie in a genre with a rich history of them.But Hollywood still has plenty of game adaptations on the way. The most notable ones are being developed for the small screen, though. Game sales hit a record $56.9 billion in 2020, according to a report by the research firm NPD. As media companies compete for well-established IP to attract (or keep) subscribers for their streaming services, they've set their sights on the video-game industry.And as long as Hollywood keeps mining games for content, industry professionals are glad it's embracing TV."We play our favorite games for hundreds of hours," said Christian Linke, a creative director at Riot Games and the showrunner of Netflix's new "League of Legends" animated series, "Arcane." "Movies don't do the experience justice when you only stick with that world for two hours."Mac Walters, the project director for "Mass Effect: Legendary Edition" — a remastered collection of the sci-fi series' original three games — told Insider during an interview this year that a planned "Mass Effect" movie was scrapped a decade ago."If you're going to tell a story that's as fleshed out as 'Mass Effect,' TV is the way to do it," Walters said. "There's a natural way it fits well with episodic content."Now, Amazon is nearing a deal to make a "Mass Effect" TV series, according to Deadline, as the company bets on high-profile genre shows.Insider looked at the major video-game shows in the works for streaming platforms, from Paramount+'s "Halo" to Netflix's "Assassin's Creed."Amazon Prime Video"Mass Effect: Legendary Edition."Electronic Arts/BioWareDeadline reported recently that Amazon is nearing a deal for a "Mass Effect" TV series, based on the hit sci-fi game franchise. It's part of an effort by Amazon to bulk up its output of genre TV after hits like "The Boys" and most recently "The Wheel of Time.""Westworld" creators Jonathan Nolan and Lisa Joy are developing a "Fallout" show for Amazon, based on the post-apocalyptic game series."'Fallout' is one of the greatest game series of all time," Nolan and Joy said in a statement last year with the announcement. "Each chapter of this insanely imaginative story has cost us countless hours we could have spent with family and friends." HBO MaxNaughty DogHBO is developing a series based on the "Last of Us" video game, written and executive produced by "Chernobyl" creator Craig Mazin and Neil Druckmann, the copresident of the studio behind the game, Naughty Dog.Pedro Pascal plays Joel, who has to escort young Ellie, played by Bella Ramsey, across a post-apocalyptic US. Netflix"Assassin's Creed."UbisoftWhile Netflix's hit fantasy series "The Witcher" is more inspired by the novels by Andrzej Sapkowski, the books also spawned popular video games. Given that "The Witcher" is one of Netflix's biggest series, the streaming giant is developing spinoffs, including a live-action prequel series called "The Witcher: Blood Origin."Other game-based, live-action shows coming to Netflix soon include "Resident Evil" and "Assassin's Creed." A 2016 movie adapted from the latter, starring Michael Fassbender, flopped at the box office with $240 million worldwide. Netflix has also ordered animated projects based on games, including "Sonic Prime" starring Sonic the Hedgehog and a "Tomb Raider" series.  Paramount+Bungie / Halo First developed for ViacomCBS's premium cable network Showtime, the long-in-the-works "Halo" TV series moved to ViacomCBS's streaming service Paramount+ last year, and is set for release in 2022. The series is based on the blockbuster sci-fi game franchise of the same name, the new entry of which, "Halo: Infinite," was released on Wednesday.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderDec 8th, 2021