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Why Is Polkadot Exploding While Bitcoin And Others Are Trading Flat Today?

Polkadot (CRYPTO: DOT) is rallying higher Wednesday, amid a cryptocurrency market that is trading pretty flat. Polkadot posted an announcement on its website stating it's was ready to launch parachains on its app. read more.....»»

Category: blogSource: benzingaOct 13th, 2021

Inside the World of Black Bitcoin, Where Crypto Is About Making More Than Just Money

“We can operate on an even playing field in the digital world” At the Black Blockchain Summit, there is almost no conversation about making money that does not carry with it the possibility of liberation. This is not simply a gathering for those who would like to ride whatever bumps and shocks, gains and losses come with cryptocurrency. It is a space for discussing the relationship between money and man, the powers that be and what they have done with power. Online and in person, on the campus of Howard University in Washington, D.C., an estimated 1,500 mostly Black people have gathered to talk about crypto—decentralized digital money backed not by governments but by blockchain technology, a secure means of recording transactions—as a way to make money while disrupting centuries-long patterns of oppression. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] “What we really need to be doing is to now utilize the technology behind blockchain to enhance the quality of life for our people,” says Christopher Mapondera, a Zimbabwean American and the first official speaker. As a white-haired engineer with the air of a lecturing statesman, Mapondera’s conviction feels very on-brand at a conference themed “Reparations and Revolutions.” Along with summit organizer Sinclair Skinner, Mapondera co-founded BillMari, a service that aims to make it easier to transmit cryptocurrency to wherever the sons and daughters of Africa have been scattered. So, not exactly your stereotypical “Bitcoin bro.” Contrary to the image associated with cryptocurrency since it entered mainstream awareness, almost no one at the summit is a fleece-vest-wearing finance guy or an Elon Musk type with a grudge against regulators. What they are is a cross section of the world of Black crypto traders, educators, marketers and market makers—a world that seemingly mushroomed during the pandemic, rallying around the idea that this is the boon that Black America needs. In fact, surveys indicate that people of color are investing in cryptocurrency in ways that outpace or equal other groups—something that can’t be said about most financial products. About 44% of those who own crypto are people of color, according to a June survey by the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center. In April, a Harris Poll reported that while just 16% of U.S. adults overall own cryptocurrency, 18% of Black Americans have gotten in on it. (For Latino Americans, the figure is 20%.) The actor Hill Harper of The Good Doctor, a Harvard Law School friend of former President Barack Obama, is a pitchman for Black Wall Street, a digital wallet and crypto trading service developed with Najah Roberts, a Black crypto expert. And this summer, when the popular money-transfer service Cash App added the option to purchase Bitcoin, its choice to explain the move was the MC Megan Thee Stallion. “With my knowledge and your hustle, you’ll have your own empire in no time,” she says in an ad titled “Bitcoin for Hotties.” Read more: Americans Have Learned to Talk About Racial Inequality. But They’ve Done Little to Solve It But, as even Megan Thee Stallion acknowledges in that ad, pinning one’s economic hopes on crypto is inherently risky. Many economic experts have described crypto as little better than a bubble, mere fool’s gold. The rapid pace of innovation—it’s been little more than a decade since Bitcoin was created by the enigmatic, pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto—has left consumers with few protections. Whether the potential is worth those risks is the stuff of constant, and some would say, infernal debate. Jared Soares for TIMECleve Mesidor, who founded the National Policy Network of Women of Color in Blockchain What looms in the backdrop is clear. In the U.S., the median white family’s wealth—reflecting not just assets minus debt, but also the ability to weather a financial setback—sat around $188,200, per the Federal Reserve’s most recent measure in 2019. That’s about eight times the median wealth of Black families. (For Latino families, it’s five times greater; the wealth of Asian, Pacific Island and other families sits between that of white and Latino families, according to the report.) Other estimates paint an even grimmer picture. If trends continue, the median Black household will have zero wealth by 2053. The summit attendees seem certain that crypto represents keys to a car bound for somewhere better. “Our digital selves are more important in some ways than our real-world selves,” Tony Perkins, a Black MIT-trained computer scientist, says during a summit session on “Enabling Black Land and Asset Ownership Using Blockchain.” The possibilities he rattles off—including fractional ownership of space stations—will, to many, sound fantastical. To others, they sound like hope. “We can operate on an even playing field in the digital world,” he says. The next night, when in-person attendees gather at Barcode, a Black-owned downtown D.C. establishment, for drinks and conversation, there’s a small rush on black T-shirts with white lettering: SATOSHI, they proclaim, IS BLACK. That’s an intriguing idea when your ancestors’ bodies form much of the foundation of U.S. prosperity. At the nation’s beginnings, land theft from Native Americans seeded the agricultural operations where enslaved Africans would labor and die, making others rich. By 1860, the cotton-friendly ground of Mississippi was so productive that it was home to more millionaires than anywhere else in the country. Government-supported pathways to wealth, from homesteading to homeownership, have been reliably accessible to white Americans only. So Black Bitcoiners’ embrace of decentralized currencies—and a degree of doubt about government regulators, as well as those who have done well in the traditional system—makes sense. Skinner, the conference organizer, believes there’s racial subtext in the caution from the financial mainstream regarding Bitcoin—a pervasive idea that Black people just don’t understand finance. “I’m skeptical of all of those [warnings], based on the history,” Skinner, who is Black American, says. Even a drop in the value of Bitcoin this year, which later went back up, has not made him reticent. “They have petrol shortages in England right now. They’ll blame the weather or Brexit, but they’ll never have to say they’re dumb. Something don’t work in Detroit or some city with a Black mayor, we get a collective shame on us.” Read more: America’s Interstate Slave Trade Once Trafficked Nearly 30,000 People a Year—And Reshaped the Country’s Economy The first time I speak to Skinner, the summit is still two weeks away. I’d asked him to talk through some of the logistics, but our conversation ranges from what gives money value to the impact of ride-share services on cabbies refusing Black passengers. Tech often promises to solve social problems, he says. The Internet was supposed to democratize all sorts of things. In many cases, it defaulted to old patterns. (As Black crypto policy expert Cleve Mesidor put it to me, “The Internet was supposed to be decentralized, and today it’s owned by four white men.”) But with the right people involved from the start of the next wave of change—crypto—the possibilities are endless, Skinner says. Skinner, a Howard grad and engineer by training, first turned to crypto when he and Mapondera were trying to find ways to do ethanol business in Zimbabwe. Traditional international transactions were slow or came with exorbitant fees. In Africa, consumers pay some of the world’s highest remittance, cell phone and Internet data fees in the world, a damaging continuation of centuries-long wealth transfers off the continent to others, Skinner says. Hearing about cryptocurrency, he was intrigued—particularly having seen, during the recession, the same banking industry that had profited from slavery getting bailed out as hundreds of thousands of people of color lost their homes. So in 2013, he invested “probably less than $3,000,” mostly in Bitcoin. Encouraged by his friend Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, one of the largest platforms for trading crypto, he grew his stake. In 2014, when Skinner went to a crypto conference in Amsterdam, only about eight Black people were there, five of them caterers, but he felt he had come home ideologically. He saw he didn’t need a Rockefeller inheritance to change the world. “I don’t have to build a bank where they literally used my ancestors to build the capital,” says Skinner, who today runs a site called I Love Black People, which operates like a global anti-racist Yelp. “I can unseat that thing by not trying to be like them.” Eventually, he and Mapondera founded BillMari and became the first crypto company to partner with the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe to lower fees on remittances, the flow of money from immigrants overseas back home to less-developed nations—an economy valued by the World Bank and its offshoot KNOMAD at $702 billion in 2020. (Some of the duo’s business plans later evaporated, after Zimbabwe’s central bank revoked approval for some cryptocurrency activities.) Skinner’s feelings about the economic overlords make it a bit surprising that he can attract people like Charlene Fadirepo, a banker by trade and former government regulator, to speak at the summit. On the first day, she offers attendees a report on why 2021 was a “breakout year for Bitcoin,” pointing out that major banks have begun helping high-net-worth clients invest in it, and that some corporations have bought crypto with their cash on hand, holding it as an asset. Fadirepo, who worked in the Fed’s inspector general’s office monitoring Federal Reserve banks and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is not a person who hates central banks or regulation. A Black American, she believes strongly in both, and in their importance for protecting investors and improving the economic position of Black people. Today she operates Guidefi, a financial education and advising company geared toward helping Black women connect with traditional financial advisers. It just launched, for a fee, direct education in cryptocurrency. Crypto is a relatively new part of Fadirepo’s life. She and her Nigerian-American doctor husband earn good salaries and follow all the responsible middle-class financial advice. But the pandemic showed her they still didn’t have what some of his white colleagues did: the freedom to walk away from high-risk work. As the stock market shuddered and storefronts shuttered, she decided a sea change was coming. A family member had mentioned Bitcoin at a funeral in 2017, but it sounded risky. Now, her research kept bringing her back to it. Last year, she and her husband bought $6,000 worth. No investment has ever generated the kinds of returns for them that Bitcoin has. “It has transformed people’s relationship with money,” she says. “Folks are just more intentional … and honestly feeling like they had access to a world that was previously walled off.” Read more: El Salvador Is Betting on Bitcoin to Rebrand the Country — and Strengthen the President’s Grip She knows frauds exists. In May, a federal watchdog revealed that since October 2020, nearly 7,000 people have reported losses of more than $80 million on crypto scams—12 times more scam reports than the same period the previous year. The median individual loss: $1,900. For Fadirepo, it’s worrying. That’s part of why she helps moderate recurring free learning and discussion options like the Black Bitcoin Billionaires chat room on Clubhouse, which has grown from about 2,000 to 130,000 club members this year. Jared Soares for TIMECharlene Fadirepo, a banker and former government regulator, near the National Museum of African American History and Culture There’s a reason Black investors might prefer their own spaces for that kind of education. Fadirepo says it’s not unheard-of in general crypto spaces—theoretically open to all, but not so much in practice—to hear that relying on the U.S. dollar is slavery. “To me, a descendant of enslaved people in America, that was painful,” she says. “There’s a lot of talk about sovereignty, freedom from the U.S. dollar, freedom from inflation, inflation is slavery, blah blah blah. The historical context has been sucked out of these conversations about traditional financial systems. I don’t know how I can talk about banking without also talking about history.” Back in January, I found myself in a convenience store in a low-income and predominantly Black neighborhood in Dallas, an area still living the impact of segregation decades after its official end. I was there to report on efforts to register Black residents for COVID-19 shots after an Internet-only sign-up system—and wealthier people gaming the system—created an early racial disparity in vaccinations. I stepped away to buy a bottle of water. Inside the store, a Black man wondered aloud where the lottery machine had gone. He’d come to spend his usual $2 on tickets and had found a Bitcoin machine sitting in its place. A second Black man standing nearby, surveying chip options, explained that Bitcoin was a form of money, an investment right there for the same $2. After just a few questions, the first man put his money in the machine and walked away with a receipt describing the fraction of one bitcoin he now owned. Read more: When a Texas County Tried to Ensure Racial Equity in COVID-19 Vaccinations, It Didn’t Go as Planned I was both worried and intrigued. What kind of arrangement had prompted the store’s owner to replace the lottery machine? That month, a single bitcoin reached the $40,000 mark. “That’s very revealing, if someone chooses to put a cryptocurrency machine in the same place where a lottery [machine] was,” says Jeffrey Frankel, a Harvard economist, when I tell him that story. Frankel has described cryptocurrencies as similar to gambling, more often than not attracting those who can least afford to lose, whether they are in El Salvador or Texas. Frankel ranks among the economists who have been critical of El Salvador’s decision to begin recognizing Bitcoin last month as an official currency, in part because of the reality that few in the county have access to the internet, as well as the cryptocurrency’s price instability and its lack of backing by hard assets, he says. At the same time that critics have pointed to the shambolic Bitcoin rollout in El Salvador, Bitcoin has become a major economic force in Nigeria, one of the world’s larger players in cryptocurrency trading. In fact, some have argued that it has helped people in that country weather food inflation. But, to Frankel, crypto does not contain promise for lasting economic transformation. To him, disdain for experts drives interest in cryptocurrency in much the same way it can fuel vaccine hesitancy. Frankel can see the potential to reduce remittance costs, and he does not doubt that some people have made money. Still, he’s concerned that the low cost and click-here ease of buying crypto may draw people to far riskier crypto assets, he says. Then he tells me he’d put the word assets here in a hard set of air quotes. And Frankel, who is white, is not alone. Darrick Hamilton, an economist at the New School who is Black, says Bitcoin should be seen in the same framework as other low-cost, high-risk, big-payoff options. “In the end, it’s a casino,” he says. To people with less wealth, it can feel like one of the few moneymaking methods open to them, but it’s not a source of group uplift. “Like any speculation, those that can arbitrage the market will be fine,” he says. “There’s a whole lot of people that benefited right before the Great Recession, but if they didn’t get out soon enough, they lost their shirts too.” To buyers like Jiri Sampson, a Black cryptocurrency investor who works in real estate and lives outside Washington, D.C., that perspective doesn’t register as quite right. The U.S.-born son of Guyanese immigrants wasn’t thinking about exploitation when he invested his first $20 in cryptocurrency in 2017. But the groundwork was there. Sampson homeschools his kids, due in part to his lack of faith that public schools equip Black children with the skills to determine their own fates. He is drawn to the capacity of this technology to create greater agency for Black people worldwide. The blockchain, for example, could be a way to establish ownership for people who don’t hold standard documents—an important issue in Guyana and many other parts of the world, where individuals who have lived on the land for generations are vulnerable to having their property co-opted if they lack formal deeds. Sampson even pitched a project using the blockchain and GPS technology to establish digital ownership records to the Guyanese government, which did not bite. “I don’t want to downplay the volatility of Bitcoin,” Sampson says. But that’s only a significant concern, he believes, if one intends to sell quickly. To him, Bitcoin represents a “harder” asset than the dollar, which he compares to a ship with a hole in it. Bitcoin has a limited supply, while the Fed can decide to print more dollars anytime. That, to Sampson, makes some cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, good to buy and hold, to pass along wealth from one generation to another. Economists and crypto buyers aren’t the only ones paying attention. Congress, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Federal Reserve have indicated that they will move toward official assessments or regulation soon. At least 10 federal agencies are interested in or already regulating crypto in some way, and there’s now a Congressional Blockchain Caucus. Representatives from the Federal Reserve and the SEC declined to comment, but SEC Chairman Gary Gensler assured a Senate subcommittee in September that his agency is working to develop regulation that will apply to cryptocurrency markets and trading activity. Enter Cleve Mesidor, of the quip about the Internet being owned by four white men. When we meet during the summit, she introduces herself: “Cleve Mesidor, I’m in crypto.” She’s the first person I’ve ever heard describe herself that way, but not that long ago, “influencer” wasn’t a career either. A former Obama appointee who worked inside the Commerce Department on issues related to entrepreneurship and economic development, Mesidor learned about cryptocurrency during that time. But she didn’t get involved in it personally until 2013, when she purchased $200 in Bitcoin. After leaving government, she founded the National Policy Network of Women of Color in Blockchain, and is now the public policy adviser for the industry group the Blockchain Association. There are more men than women in Black crypto spaces, she tells me, but the gender imbalance tends to be less pronounced than in white-dominated crypto communities. Mesidor, who immigrated to the U.S. from Haiti and uses her crypto investments to fund her professional “wanderlust,” has also lived crypto’s downsides. She’s been hacked and the victim of an attempted ransomware attack. But she still believes cryptocurrency and related technology can solve real-world problems, and she’s trying, she says, to make sure that necessary consumer protections are not structured in a way that chokes the life out of small businesses or investors. “D.C. is like Vegas; the house always wins,” says Mesidor, whose independently published book is called The Clevolution: My Quest for Justice in Politics & Crypto. “The crypto community doesn’t get that.” Passion, she says, is not enough. The community needs to be involved in the regulatory discussions that first intensified after the price of a bitcoin went to $20,000 in 2017. A few days after the summit, when Mesidor and I spoke by phone, Bitcoin had climbed to nearly $60,000. At Barcode, the Washington lounge, Isaiah Jackson is holding court. A man with a toothpaste-commercial smile, he’s the author of the independently published Bitcoin & Black America, has appeared on CNBC and is half of the streaming show The Gentleman of Crypto, which bills itself as the one of the longest-running cryptocurrency shows on the Internet. When he was building websites as a sideline, he convinced a large black church in Charlotte, N.C., to, for a time, accept Bitcoin donations. He helped establish Black Bitcoin Billionaires on Clubhouse and, like Fadirepo, helps moderate some of its rooms and events. He’s also a former teacher, descended from a line of teachers, and is using those skills to develop (for a fee) online education for those who want to become crypto investors. Now, there’s a small group standing near him, talking, but mostly listening. Jackson was living in North Carolina when one of his roommates, a white man who worked for a money-management firm, told him he had just heard a presentation about crypto and thought he might want to suggest it to his wealthy parents. The concept blew Jackson’s mind. He soon started his own research. “Being in the Black community and seeing the actions of banks, with redlining and other things, it just appealed to me,” Jackson tells me. “You free the money, you free everything else.” Read more: Beyond Tulsa: The Historic Legacies and Overlooked Stories of America’s ‘Black Wall Streets’ He took his $400 savings and bought two bitcoins in October 2013. That December, the price of a single bitcoin topped $1,100. He started thinking about what kind of new car he’d buy. And he stuck with it, even seeing prices fluctuate and scams proliferate. When the Gentlemen of Bitcoin started putting together seminars, one of the early venues was at a college fair connected to an annual HBCU basketball tournament attended by thousands of mostly Black people. Bitcoin eventually became more than an investment. He believed there was great value in spreading the word. But that was then. “I’m done convincing people. There’s no point battling going back and forth,” he says. “Even if they don’t realize it, what [investors] are doing if they are keeping their bitcoin long term, they are moving money out of the current system into another one. And that is basically the best form of peaceful protest.”   —With reporting by Leslie Dickstein and Simmone Shah.....»»

Category: topSource: timeOct 15th, 2021

CFTC Fines Bitfinex, Tether $43MM For "Misleading" Claims About Reserves

CFTC Fines Bitfinex, Tether $43MM For "Misleading" Claims About Reserves Years ago, several anonymous accounts on twitter, reddit and other social media platforms complained that tether, one of the original stablecoins, and Bitfinex, the crypto exchange that helped create tether, were conspiring to drain the reserves from Tether's bank accounts, something that Bloomberg appeared to confirm in a report published earlier this month. The SEC has been saying for months that regulating stablecoins is a priority, just like finally legalizing a bitcoin ETFs. But stablecoins present a unique threat to the US dollar, as one Treasury official explained earlier. Their lack of volatility (even tether continues to trade at roughly $1 despite reports about tether's reserves) mean they could be used for payments, making them a competitor to the dollar (while bitcoin and altcoins are more accurately compared with precious metals). The agency said Friday that tether and Bitfinex will pay a combined $42.5MM, with $41MM of that coming from tether, and the remaining $1.5MM coming from Bitfinex. Tether's fine was imposed over the company's claims that its stablecoin was "fully backed" by US dollars (which, as Bloomberg demonstrated, it's not). Bitfinex, meanwhile, will pay $1.5MM over findings that "Bitfinex engaged in illegal, off-exchange retail commodity transactions in digital assets with U.S persons on the Bitfinex trading platform and operated as a futures commission merchant (FCM) without registering as required," according to the statement. The CFTC took a few seconds to pat itself on the back in its press release as the feuding over which agencies have jurisdiction over crypto continues to intensify. "This case highlights the expectation of honesty and transparency in the rapidly growing and developing digital assets marketplace," said Acting Chairman Rostin Behnam. "The CFTC will continue to take decisive action to bring to light untrue or misleading statements that impact CFTC jurisdictional markets.”" The CFTC added that it imposed these charges in keeping with its Congressional mandate to protect American investors from scams and fraud. "As demonstrated by today’s actions against Tether and Bitfinex, the CFTC is committed to carrying out its statutory charge to promote market integrity and protect U.S. customers," said Acting Director of Enforcement Vincent McGonagle. "The CFTC will use its strong anti-fraud enforcement authority over commodities, including digital assets, when necessary. The CFTC will also act to ensure that certain margined, leveraged or financed digital asset trading offered to retail U.S. customers must occur on properly registered and regulated exchanges. Moreover, as the Bitfinex order reflects, the CFTC will take decisive action against those who choose to violate CFTC orders." The penalties stemmed from the same findings about tether's lack of verifiable reserves that Bloomberg disclosed earlier this month. Since..."at least June 1, 2016 to February 25, 2019, Tether misrepresented to customers and the market that Tether maintained sufficient U.S. dollar reserves to back every USDT in circulation with the “equivalent amount of corresponding fiat currency” held by Tether and “safely deposited” in Tether’s bank accounts. In fact Tether reserves were not “fully-backed” the majority of the time." The CFTC also found that tether only held the amount of fiat reserves that it advertised during only 27.6% of the days in a 26-month sample time period from 2016 through 2018. The investigation also showed how Bitfinex helped tether essentially launder its reserves. "...[I]nstead of holding all USDT token reserves in US dollars as represented, Tether relied upon unregulated entities and certain third-parties to hold funds comprising the reserves; comingled reserve funds with Bitfinex’s operational and customer funds..." Tether also neglected to complete mandatory audits during this time. The company even went so far as to put up tether's reserves to cover Bitfinex losses when it was struggling with a hacker-induced "liquidity crisis." Tyler Durden Fri, 10/15/2021 - 14:26.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytOct 15th, 2021

Bitcoin Nears $63k As ProShares Signals ETF Launch Imminent, Dorsey Plans Mining System

Bitcoin Nears $63k As ProShares Signals ETF Launch Imminent, Dorsey Plans Mining System Update (1650ET): Confirming the earlier headlines that set the stage for a Bitcoin (futures) ETF to start trading next week, Bloomberg's James Seyffart tweeted that Proshares' 8A just hit which registers the ETF's shares with the SEC for trading on an exchange. If anyone needs more evidence that this is happening on Tuesday. Proshares' 8A just hit which registers the ETF's shares with the SEC for trading on an exchange. pic.twitter.com/Idp6cm4qet — James Seyffart (@JSeyff) October 15, 2021 Additionally, ETFStore President Nate Geraci told CoinDesk that the form is “a step forward” for digital assets and bridging them with the more traditional financial sector. He confirmed that the filing of a post-effective amendment is confirmation of the SEC’s tacit approval. “It’s an encouraging sign for the future of crypto to see SEC Chairman Gensler get comfortable in helping mainstream investors more easily access bitcoin exposure,” he said in an email. “The availability of a bitcoin ETF will now bring more investors under the crypto tent and facilitate greater education across the space.” As UBS warned in its latest Crypto Compasss, so as not to tempt fate, one veteran investor offered the tongue-in-cheek observation that anticipated SEC approval for a futures-based ETF may mark a local top in prices, much like the Coinbase IPO, per the old adage: "buy the rumour, sell the fact." The same thing occurred on the exact day that BTC futures debuted on the CME on December 17, 2017. We wouldn't bank on it but also wouldn't be surprised to see such a milestone marking the point where some long-term dip buyers begin to lighten up. They have been accumulating steadily for the past seven months. But, options markets are signaling a lot of upside still for BTC (and positive gamma)... However, UBS notes that stablecoin intervention is a more potent threat, with authorities actively throwing sand in the wheels of further development.  *  *  * Update (1635ET): Square (and Twitter) CEO Jack Dorsey has been a long-time advocate for cryptocurrencies and this evening he tweeted about his latest plans to create a Bitcoin mining system: Square is considering building a Bitcoin mining system based on custom silicon and open source for individuals and businesses worldwide. If we do this, we’d follow our hardware wallet model: build in the open in collaboration with the community. First some thoughts and questions. — jack⚡️ (@jack) October 15, 2021 As he detailed in a brief thread: 1/ Mining needs to be more distributed. The core job of a miner is to securely settle transactions without the need for trusted 3rd parties. This is critical well after the last bitcoin is mined. The more decentralized this is, the more resilient the Bitcoin network becomes. True?  2/ Mining needs to be more efficient. Driving towards clean and efficient energy use is great for Bitcoin’s economics, impact, and scalability. Energy is a system-level problem that requires innovation in silicon, software, and integration. What are the largest opportunities here?  3/ Silicon design is too concentrated into a few companies. This means supply is likely overly constrained. Silicon development is very expensive, requires long term investment, and is best coupled tightly with software and system design. Why aren’t more companies doing this work?  4/ There isn’t enough focus on vertical integration. Considering hardware, software, productization, and distribution requires accountability for delivering to an end customer vs improving a single technology in the chain. Does seeing this as a single system improve accessibility?  5/ Mining isn’t accessible to everyone. Bitcoin mining should be as easy as plugging a rig into a power source. There isn’t enough incentive today for individuals to overcome the complexity of running a miner for themselves. What are the biggest barriers for people running miners?  Our team led by @JesseDorogusker will start the deep technical investigation required to take on this project. We’d love your thoughts, ideas, concerns, and collaboration. Should we do this? Why or why not? We’ll update this thread as we make our decisions. And now over to Jesse.  That headline was enough to push Bitcoin even higher on the day, nearing $63k at its peak... *  *  * Cryptos are all rallying this morning but Bitcoin is making headlines as it broke back above the $60,000 level for the first since April... Source: Bloomberg This has extended a recent run from around $40,000 which has been driven by increasingly optimistic signs of a Bitcoin ETF being imminent... Source: Bloomberg This has pushed Bitcoin back up to be the world's 8th largest asset (just below that of Silver), and well above $1 trillion market cap... Source Citing “people familiar with the matter,” Bloomberg has reported that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission is poised to approve the first Bitcoin futures ETFs in the country. The anonymous sources said: “The regulator isn’t likely to block the products from starting to trade next week.” Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas recently laid out his odds for which of the numerous ETF proposals will be accepted first... And for those in the "digital gold" camp, this analog from the '70s is interesting. CoinTelegraph reports that Austrian investor and analyst Niko Jilch this week referenced famed investor Paul Tudor Jones while explaining the “excitement” over the Bitcoin ETF. Tudor Jones had previously highlighted Bitcoin’s cycles being similar to gold in the 1970s — just when it had become a futures product itself and enjoyed a 10-year bull run followed by a 50% correction. Gold’s 1970s rip, TechDev additionally noted, fits extremely neatly over Bitcoin’s performance since October 2020. Finally, not to be forgotten, Ethereum is holding above $3800... Tyler Durden Fri, 10/15/2021 - 16:42.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytOct 15th, 2021

NuCypher soars 1,134% in a single day as the altcoin touches $2 billion market valuation

While NuCypher celebrated its one-year anniversary on Friday, there was no indication as to what developments drove a surge in demand for the altcoin. Drew Angerer/Getty Images NuCypher soared as much as 1,134% on Friday as the altcoin touched a $2 billion market cap.The decentralized threshold cryptography network celebrated its one-year anniversary on Friday.The surge made NuCypher the 79th largest cryptocurrency, according to CoinMarketCap.Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell.NuCypher, a little-known altcoin that bills itself as a decentralized threshold cryptography network, soared as much as 1,134% on Friday.The surge catapulted NuCypher's market valuation to more than $2 billion from about $200 million as one-day volume exploded 18,266% higher, according to data from CoinMarketCap. The altcoin hit a high of $3.58 before paring its gains by about 50% to $1.80.While NuCypher celebrated its one-year anniversary on Friday, there was no clear indication as to what developments drove such a sharp surge in demand for the altcoin, which is now the 79th largest cryptocurrency by market value."One year ago today the NuCypher network launched. Since then, thousands of stakes and dozens of dapp developers have discovered threshold cryptography," NuCypher's Twitter profile said Friday morning.The surge in NuCypher came as bitcoin continued its October rally and hit $60,000 amid ongoing speculation that the SEC may be close to approving the first bitcoin futures ETF.NuCypher has 687.5 million coins in circulation and a max supply of 3.9 billion coins. NuCypher, which is built on the ethereum network, serves as an encryption service for public blockchains and offers end-to-end encrypted data sharing on public blockchains and decentralized storage solutions.NuCypher's white paper was first published in 2017, and the altcoin began trading on October 15, 2020, at a price of $0.23 and a market valuation of $2.4 million. Coinmarketcap Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytOct 15th, 2021

Truist reports third quarter 2021 results

GAAP earnings of $1.6 billion, or $1.20 per diluted share Adjusted earnings of $1.9 billion, or $1.42 per diluted share Results reflect diverse business mix, strong fee income, and solid core loan and deposit growth Excellent credit quality and improving economic conditions drive provision benefit Successful conversion of heritage BB&T clients CHARLOTTE, N.C., Oct. 15, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Truist Financial Corporation (NYSE:TFC) today reported earnings for the third quarter of 2021. Net income available to common shareholders was $1.6 billion, up 51%, compared to the third quarter last year. Earnings per diluted common share were $1.20, an increase of 52% compared with the same period last year. Results for the third quarter produced an annualized return on average assets (ROA) of 1.28%, an annualized return on average common shareholders' equity (ROCE) of 10.2%, and an annualized return on tangible common shareholders' equity (ROTCE) of 19.3%. Adjusted net income available to common shareholders was $1.9 billion, or $1.42 per diluted share, excluding merger-related and restructuring charges of $172 million ($132 million after-tax), incremental operating expenses related to the merger of $191 million ($147 million after-tax), and a one-time professional fee expense of $30 million ($23 million after-tax). Adjusted results produced an annualized ROA of 1.51%, an annualized ROCE of 12.1%, and an annualized ROTCE of 22.6%. Adjusted earnings per diluted share were up 46% compared to the prior year. "Truist produced solid results in the third quarter, driven by strong fee income from our diverse business mix - including wealth, insurance brokerage, investment banking, and positive trends in a number of other businesses given improving economic conditions," said Chief Executive Officer William H. Rogers Jr. "We also continue to deliver exceptional credit performance with net charge-offs at 19 basis points. The health of our clients remains strong and we delivered average loan growth of 2% annualized compared to the prior quarter, excluding PPP loans. "We continue to make great progress and carefully guide our clients through conversion milestones, including completing our retail mortgage origination conversion and accelerating the roll-out of our Truist digital app. In addition, after months of intense preparation, we migrated approximately 7 million clients to the new Truist technology ecosystem - our most significant milestone to date and the result of the expertise and purposeful commitment from thousands of dedicated teammates. We are excited about these successful milestones in the integration process and are one step closer to the finish line of the merger. "Truist continued fulfilling our purpose—to inspire and build better lives and communities—in the third quarter through a number of unique and creative initiatives. Purpose drove our decision to remain open this past Saturday to ensure a smooth and successful systems conversion. This quarter, we expanded our partnership with EVERFI bringing literacy tools to elementary schools across the nation. We showed leadership as the first top 10 bank to join Blackrock's philanthropic Emergency Savings Initiative, and 64% of our early career hiring in 2021 has been filled by diverse candidates. Our teammates and I are very proud of all the ways we live our purpose at Truist." Third Quarter 2021 Performance Highlights Earnings per diluted common share were $1.20 Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.42 up $0.45 per share, or 46%, compared to third quarter 2020 ROA was 1.28%; adjusted ROA was 1.51% ROCE was 10.2%; adjusted ROCE was 12.1% ROTCE was 19.3%; adjusted ROTCE was 22.6% Taxable-equivalent revenue was $5.6 billion Adjusted taxable-equivalent revenue (excluding securities gains) was down 0.9% compared to second quarter 2021 and up 2.3% compared to third quarter 2020 Noninterest income, excluding securities gains, was down 1.7% compared to second quarter 2021 and up 12% compared to third quarter 2020 Strong results from wealth, insurance, investment banking, and residential mortgage banking; traditional fee streams increased from higher economic activity (card, payments, and service charges on deposit accounts) Fee income ratio was 42.2%, compared to 42.6% for second quarter 2021 Net interest income was down 0.4% compared to second quarter 2021 and 3.8% compared to third quarter 2020 Net interest margin was 2.81%, down seven basis points from second quarter 2021 Core net interest margin was 2.58%, down two basis points from second quarter 2021 Noninterest expense was $3.8 billion Adjusted noninterest expense was $3.3 billion, up 2.4% compared to second quarter 2021 and 3.5% compared to third quarter 2020 GAAP efficiency ratio was 67.8%, compared to 71.0% for second quarter 2021 Adjusted efficiency ratio was 57.9%, compared to 56.1% for second quarter 2021 Asset quality remains excellent, reflecting our prudent risk culture, diverse portfolio, improving economic conditions, and the ongoing effects of government stimulus Nonperforming assets were 0.23% of total assets, relatively stable from second quarter 2021 Net charge-offs were 0.19% of average loans and leases, down one basis point compared to second quarter 2021 The ALLL ratio was 1.65% compared to 1.79% for second quarter 2021 Provision for credit losses was a benefit of $324 million for third quarter 2021, primarily reflecting an improving economic outlook The ALLL coverage ratio was 4.35X nonperforming loans and leases held for investment, versus 4.83X in second quarter 2021 Capital and liquidity levels remained strong; deployed capital through increased dividend and acquisitions Common equity tier 1 to risk-weighted assets was 10.1% Consolidated average LCR ratio was 114% Increased common dividend 7% in third quarter 2021 Completed acquisition of Constellation Affiliated Partners Announced acquisition of Service Finance, LLC to expand point-of-sale lending capabilities   EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS Change 3Q21 vs. (dollars in millions, except per share data) 3Q21 2Q21 3Q20 2Q21 3Q20 Net income available to common shareholders $ 1,616 $ 1,559 $ 1,068 $ 57 $ 548 Diluted earnings per common share 1.20 1.16 0.79 0.04 0.41 Net interest income - taxable equivalent $ 3,261 $ 3,273 $ 3,391 $ (12) $ (130) Noninterest income 2,365 2,405 2,210 (40) 155 Total taxable-equivalent revenue $ 5,626 $ 5,678 $ 5,601 $ (52) $ 25 Less taxable-equivalent adjustment 28 28 29 Total revenue $ 5,598 $ 5,650 $ 5,572 Return on average assets 1.28 % 1.28 % 0.91 % — % 0.37 % Return on average risk-weighted assets (current quarter is preliminary) 1.77 1.76 1.19 0.01 0.58 Return on average common shareholders' equity 10.2 10.1 6.9 0.1 3.3 Return on average tangible common shareholders' equity (1) 19.3 18.9 13.3 0.4 6.0 Net interest margin - taxable equivalent 2.81 2.88 3.10 (0.07) (0.29) (1) Excludes certain items as detailed in the non-GAAP reconciliations in the Quarterly Performance Summary. Third Quarter 2021 compared to Second Quarter 2021 Total taxable-equivalent revenue was $5.6 billion for the third quarter of 2021, a decrease of $52 million, or 0.9%, compared to the prior quarter. Net interest income for the third quarter of 2021 was down $12 million, or 0.4%, compared to the prior quarter due primarily to lower purchase accounting accretion and lower fees from Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans, partially offset by growth in the securities portfolio. Average earning assets increased $6.5 billion, or 1.4%, compared to the prior quarter. Average securities available for sale increased $10.6 billion, or 7.8%, while average total loans decreased $2.6 billion, or 0.9%, and average other earning assets (primarily cash at the Federal Reserve) decreased $2.3 billion, or 10.5%. The growth in average earning assets is a result of an increase in investment securities driven by strong deposit growth. Average deposits increased $6.5 billion, or 1.6%, primarily due to the ongoing impacts of fiscal and monetary stimulus. The net interest margin was 2.81% for the third quarter, down seven basis points compared to the prior quarter. The decline in the net interest margin was primarily due to lower purchase accounting accretion. The yield on the total loan portfolio for the third quarter was 3.90%, down 11 basis points compared to the prior quarter primarily due to lower purchase accounting accretion and loan mix changes. The yield on the average securities portfolio for the third quarter was 1.50%, up three basis points compared to the prior quarter. Core net interest margin was 2.58% for the third quarter, down two basis points compared to the prior quarter driven by higher levels of liquidity and lower PPP revenue. The average cost of total deposits was 0.03%, down one basis point compared to the prior quarter. The average rate on long-term debt was 1.61%, up one basis point compared to the prior quarter. The provision for credit losses was a benefit of $324 million and net charge-offs were $135 million for the third quarter, compared to a benefit of $434 million and $142 million, respectively, for the prior quarter. The net charge-off rate for the current quarter of 0.19% was down one basis point compared to second quarter 2021. Noninterest income was $2.4 billion, a decrease of $40 million, or 1.7%, compared to the prior quarter. Commercial real-estate related income decreased $60 million primarily due to client-related structured real estate transactions in the prior quarter. Insurance income decreased $45 million primarily due to seasonality, partially offset by $41 million of revenue from the Constellation Affiliated Partners acquisition. Residential mortgage income increased $62 million primarily due to higher servicing income (due to lower prepayment rates and a bulk purchase of servicing assets). Noninterest expense was $3.8 billion for the third quarter, down $216 million, or 5.4%, compared to the prior quarter. Merger-related and restructuring charges decreased $125 million primarily due to costs in connection with a voluntary separation and retirement program in the prior quarter. Incremental operating expenses related to the merger were relatively flat compared to second quarter 2021. The current quarter also includes a $30 million professional fee to develop an ongoing program to identify, prioritize, and roadmap teammate generated revenue growth and expense savings opportunities beyond the merger. The prior quarter included $200 million of expense associated with charitable contributions to the Truist Foundation and the Truist Charitable Fund. Excluding the aforementioned items and changes in amortization of intangibles, adjusted noninterest expense was up $75 million, or 2.4%, compared to the prior quarter. Equipment expense increased $32 million primarily due to a higher volume of laptop purchases, partially as a result of delays due to supply chain issues. Marketing and customer development expense increased $28 million due to planned advertising campaigns to expand Truist brand awareness. Personnel expense decreased $20 million compared to second quarter 2021 due to lower incentive expenses, partially offset by higher medical insurance claims and personnel costs related to the Constellation Affiliated Partners acquisition. The provision for income taxes was $423 million for the third quarter of 2021, compared to $415 million for the prior quarter. The effective tax rate for the third quarter of 2021 was 19.9%, compared to 20.0% for the prior quarter. Third Quarter 2021 compared to Third Quarter 2020 Total taxable-equivalent revenues were $5.6 billion for the third quarter of 2021, an increase of $25 million, or 0.4%, compared to the earlier quarter. Excluding securities gains of $104 million from the third quarter of 2020, adjusted taxable equivalent revenues increased $129 million, or 2.3%, compared to the earlier quarter. Net interest income for the third quarter of 2021 was down $130 million, or 3.8%, compared to the earlier quarter due to lower purchase accounting accretion, lower rates on earning assets, and a decrease in loans. These decreases were partially offset by growth in the securities portfolio, lower funding costs, higher fees on Payroll Protection Program loans, and fewer interest deferrals on COVID-19 loan accommodations. Average earning assets increased $26.4 billion, or 6.1%, compared to the earlier quarter. The increase in average earning assets reflects a $66.4 billion, or 83%, increase in average securities, while average total loans and leases decreased $25.4 billion, or 8.0%, and average other earning assets decreased $16.5 billion, or 46%. The growth in average earning assets is a result of an increase in investment securities driven by strong deposit growth resulting from fiscal and monetary stimulus. Average deposits increased $30.5 billion, or 8.2%, compared to the earlier quarter, while average long-term debt and short-term borrowings decreased $3.6 billion, or 8.8%, and $849 million, or 14%, respectively. Net interest margin was 2.81%, down 29 basis points compared to the earlier quarter. The yield on the total loan portfolio for the third quarter of 2021 was 3.90%, down 14 basis points compared to the earlier quarter, reflecting the impact of lower purchase accounting accretion and a lower rate environment. The yield on the average securities portfolio was 1.50%, down 47 basis points compared to the earlier quarter primarily due to lower yields on new purchases. The average cost of total deposits was 0.03%, down seven basis points compared to the earlier quarter. The average rate on short-term borrowings was 0.68%, down 17 basis points compared to the earlier quarter. The average rate on long-term debt was 1.61%, up 13 basis points compared to the earlier quarter. The lower rates on deposits and short-term borrowings reflect the lower rate environment. The higher rates on long-term debt was due to the runoff of lower rate FHLB advances. The provision for credit losses was a benefit of $324 million, compared to a cost of $421 million for the earlier quarter. The earlier quarter reflected significant uncertainty related to the economic impacts resulting from the pandemic, whereas the current quarter includes a reserve release due to the improving economic outlook. Net charge-offs for the third quarter of 2021 totaled $135 million compared to $326 million in the earlier quarter. The third quarter of 2020 included $97 million of charge-offs related to the implementation of CECL, which required a gross up of loan carrying values in connection with the establishment of an allowance on PCD loans. The net charge-off ratio for the current quarter of 0.19% was down 23 basis points compared to the third quarter 2020, due primarily to the additional losses on PCD loans taken in the earlier quarter and lower actual net losses in the commercial portfolio. Noninterest income for the third quarter of 2021 increased $155 million, or 7.0%, compared to the earlier quarter. Noninterest income for the third quarter of 2020 included $104 million of securities gains on available-for-sale securities. Excluding securities gains, noninterest income increased $259 million, or 12%, compared to the earlier quarter. Insurance income increased $127 million due to acquisitions, as well as organic growth. Investment banking and trading income increased $57 million due to strong merger and acquisition activity and loan syndications. Wealth management income increased $32 million due to higher valuations of assets under management. Service charges on deposit accounts and card and payment related fees increased $29 million and $25 million, respectively, due to increased economic activity. Residential mortgage banking income ...Full story available on Benzinga.com.....»»

Category: earningsSource: benzingaOct 15th, 2021

Boyar Value Group 3Q21 Commentary

Boyar Value Group commentary for the third quarter ended September 30, 2021. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Cryptocurrencies, regardless of where they’re trading today, Will eventually prove to be worthless. Once the exuberance Wears off, or liquidity dries up, they will go to zero. I wouldn’t recommend anyone invest in Cryptocurrencies.” – […] Boyar Value Group commentary for the third quarter ended September 30, 2021. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Warren Buffett Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Warren Buffett in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more “Cryptocurrencies, regardless of where they’re trading today, Will eventually prove to be worthless. Once the exuberance Wears off, or liquidity dries up, they will go to zero. I wouldn’t recommend anyone invest in Cryptocurrencies.” – John Paulson Stock market investors have a laundry list of worries these days, from partisan bickering over the infrastructure package and a massive social and climate spending bill (amid a high-stakes game of political chicken over the debt ceiling) to supply chain disruptions and a spike in the costs of critical commodities. Geopolitical tensions are escalating between the United States and China—which is undergoing a significant regulatory crackdown—and question marks surround the future of interest rates and the consequences of a future Fed taper. And that’s to say nothing of the coronavirus! So it’s no surprise that investors are on edge—we’re getting depressed just reading through the list. Yet volatility in 2021, measured by how much the S&P 500 has decreased from its all-time high (~5%), has been tame. (According to David Lebovitz, a global market strategist with JP Morgan, the average peak-totrough decline for the S&P 500 over the past 41 years has been 14.3%.) In fact, until September, the S&P 500 was regularly charting new all-time highs, at ~54 and counting. But then the stock market got spooked, with the S&P 500 suffering its worst monthly performance (down 4.65%) since March 2020 and its worst September performance since 2011 (during the European debt crisis). Worse, all but one sector was in the red, with Energy the only advancer. Despite a 4.65% September loss, the S&P 500 eked out a 2% gain for the quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of advances. But its 227 days without a 5% drop from the high ended on September 29—the seventh-longest such streak on record, Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s tells us. The Dow and the Nasdaq were less fortunate, with their fivequarter winning streaks ending after respective falls of 4.2% and 5.31% in September. The Dow declined by 1.46% for the quarter, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.38%. Historically speaking, a September decline in the S&P 500 isn’t surprising: the past 100 years have seen 89 monthly drops of more than 5%. Felice Maranz of Bloomberg notes that September and October have accounted for 12 of the 26 times the market has dropped by more than 10% in a month. Encouragingly, these 26 drops were followed by subsequent 12-month gains on 16 occasions (for an average gain of 6.8%). Bond yields also began to increase (the 10-year Treasury went from 1.18% to 1.61% in less than 3 months), which dragged down technology shares. Higher yields on long-term risk-free investments make future profits less valuable, harming many tech company valuations, which are often based on expectations of significant profits many years down the line. Since technology companies are weighted heavily in the S&P 500 (nearly 28%, or more than 2x the weighting of the next-largest sector, Health Care, at 13.3%), the index dropped quite a bit more than the average stock did. (In September the S&P 500 index declined by 4.65%, while the S&P 500 equal-weighted index fell 3.90%.) The S&P 500 finished 3Q 2021 selling for 20.3x earnings (fwd.) versus 19.2x at its February 19, 2020, pre-COVID peak and 13.3x at its March 23, 2020, pandemic low. Since the March 23 bottom, the S&P 500 has gained well over 90%. By most traditional valuation measures (price to earnings, price to book, price to free cash flow, etc.), the S&P 500 is historically overvalued. Overvaluation against historical averages does not mean that investors should avoid equities, because extraordinarily low interest rates make prior valuation comparisons less meaningful. More important, at The Boyar Value Group, we don’t buy “the market”; rather, we purchase, and hold, businesses that sell far below our estimate of their worth. It might be especially hard uncovering bargains right now, but we’ve identified quite a few businesses selling at attractive levels even so. What’s Been Driving Share Price Returns in 2021? None of the 11 S&P 500 GICS sectors had standout performance in 3Q 2021, with 4 in negative territory and 1 flat (Consumer Discretionary). The biggest gainer, Financials, advanced a mere 2.7%. (For comparison, last quarter’s biggest gainer, Real Estate, advanced 13.1%.) By the end of 3Q, no sector was in negative territory YTD, and the best-performing sector by far was Energy (+43.2%). However, its low weighting in the S&P 500 (2.7%) gave it little effect on the index’s return, and its fantastic rise should be viewed in context, following as it did a loss of 37.3% in 2020. Other notable gainers thus far in 2021 have been Financials (+29.1%), Real Estate (+24.4%), and Communication Services (+21.6%). Interestingly, according to JP Morgan, since the market bottomed in March 2020, the S&P 500 had advanced ~97.3% as of September 30, 2021—leaving the index “only” ~30.6% above its February 2020 peak. The FAAMG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet—formerly Google), which have seemingly been leading the market ever upward, have struggled lately. Since their September peak, they have lost ~9%, or nearly $1 trillion, in market value. Due to FAAMG’s heavy weighting in the S&P 500 (~22%), if this area of the market continues struggling, the S&P 500 likely won’t perform well. Even so, we think there could be plenty of opportunities to make money investing in companies that have lower index weightings and/or that are outside the major indices. Some of the biggest “pandemic winners” are struggling too, with shares in Zoom Video Communications Inc (NASDAQ:ZM), Peloton Interactive Inc (NASDAQ:PTON), and Teladoc Health Inc (NYSE:TDOC) down 24%, 43%, and 34%, respectively, in 2021. (Though it’s worth noting that each company’s share price is trading significantly higher than before the pandemic.) One pandemic standout that has continued to soar throughout 2021 is vaccine maker Moderna, whose shares are up 192% in 2021 and up over 1,000% since March 2020. In hindsight, many signs of an imminent pullback were present. Market sentiment, for example, was very bullish (usually a contrarian indicator). At the beginning of August, two-thirds of JP Morgan clients surveyed were planning to increase their stock exposure in the coming weeks. A recent Bank of America gauge that tracks levels of optimism among market strategists was at a postcrisis high, and as of mid-August, 56% of all Wall Street analyst recommendations on S&P 500 index components were buys, the highest figure since 2002. However, we aren’t market timers. That’s because we know that trying to pinpoint the exact start of a market correction is a fool’s errand that impedes long-term results by prompting more trades (making results less tax-efficient) while removing the chance to make spectacular gains with companies that may be temporarily overvalued based on current earnings but that still have great long-term potential. When selling a high-quality company that has temporarily gotten ahead of itself in terms of valuation but that has excellent future growth prospects, knowing when to repurchase shares is extremely difficult, because the company’s share price often never drops enough to tempt investors into buying it again. So if you sell early to lock in a profit, anticipating a future correction, your profit on a well-timed sale might short-change you on future outsized gains. Reasons for Optimism According to Bloomberg, the final quarter of the year has been the strongest quarter for stocks since 2001, with an average increase of 4.1%. If history is any guide, 4Q 2021 could be a good quarter: 412 members of the S&P 500 are heading into it with gains for the year, the third-highest figure during the past 20 years. During that same period, each time 400 or more stocks have been positive through 3Q, the S&P 500 has produced a gain for 4Q.In another potentially bullish sign for stocks, cash holdings among S&P 500 companies hit $1.8 trillion in August 2021, as reported by Dow Jones Market Data—an increase of almost 30% from 3Q 2019. According to recent research by Goldman Sachs cited by Hardika Singh in a Wall Street Journal article, corporate America seems unlikely to be hoarding this cash, with S&P 500 companies expected to increase cash spending to $2.8 trillion in 2021 (mostly on capital expenditures, mergers, and business investment). Corporations also seem willing to buy back their own shares, having collectively authorized ~$870 billion in share repurchases thus far in 2021, $50 billion ahead of the record set in the first 9 months of 2018. If they deploy this capital wisely, share buybacks could buoy share prices in the short run, with capital investments spurring long-term earnings growth. What Does TINA Have to Do with the Stock Market? TINA, meaning “there is no alternative,” has become a popular catchphrase among investors, used to express the idea that stocks should continue doing well simply because interest rates are so low as to leave investors few investment options to produce an adequate rate of return. With the 10-year Treasury yielding ~1.6% and municipal bonds yielding ~1.17%, investors certainly are lacking attractive traditionally “safe” investment opportunities! Interest rates are so low that even the yields on some risky European junk bonds don’t earn any real return after factoring in inflation. Until rates rise meaningfully, equities should continue to see support—because there truly are few alternatives. The State of Value Investing Since April 2020, the S&P 500 value index has risen a little under 60%, while the S&P 500 growth index has surged over 90%, says Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s. Value stocks should start outperforming if history is any guide: in the first 2 years of a recovery after a recession, value has bested growth by an average of 24%, based on data from Research Affiliates. The swift rotation back into value shares that began in September 2020 ended abruptly in July of this year as the delta variant slowed down the economic recovery, interest rates fell, and investors once again began embracing technology-oriented shares. But value looks like it might be making a comeback, with interest rates rising again and investors starting to embrace industrial and financial shares. Market Tops With the S&P 500 having advanced well over 80% since its March 2020 highs, and in view of all the political and economic uncertainty on the horizon, investors are questioning whether the latest bull market has ended. However, Mark Hulbert of the Wall Street Journal points out that unlike bear-market bottoms, which usually occur quickly (thankfully), bull markets end slowly, because individual sectors or investment styles peak and retreat at different times: “A recent illustration that not all sectors and styles hit their bull-market highs at the same time came at the top of the internet-stock bubble in early 2000. Though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes hit their bull-market highs in March 2000, value stocks—and small-cap value stocks, in particular—kept on rising. The S&P 500 at its October 2002 bear-market low was 49% lower than its March 2000 high, and the Nasdaq Composite was 78% lower, but the average small-cap value stock was 2% higher than it was in March 2000. Hulbert analyzed 30 bull-market tops since the mid-1920s, using data maintained by Ned Davis Research, and identified the dates when individual sectors and market styles (value, growth, blend) reached their bull-market peaks, reporting a 225-day spread between the dates when the first and last market sectors reached their bull-market tops. There are exceptions, of course, such as with bear markets caused by exogenous events such as 9/11 and the pandemic, but in general, he says, “it’s more accurate to view a bull-market top as a process rather than a single event.” As Hulbert points out, even the so-called experts can’t determine when a market peaks. Over the past 40 years, on days when the S&P 500 reached a bull-market high, the market timers that he followed recommended equity exposure at an average of 65.7%—a higher level of recommended investment than on 95% of all other days over the period. The experts were even worse at picking bear market lows, with their average equity exposure at market lows over the same period a mere 5%—yet another example of investors buying high and selling low! The takeaway is that knowing when a market has peaked is pretty much impossible to do regularly: even the so-called experts are consistently wrong. Individual investors would do much better to base their decisions on the value of each of their holdings rather than trying to guess whether they’re in a bull or bear market. Speculation in the Market The amount of speculation in the stock market worries us. A good example is the heightened use of stock options, which have legitimate hedging purposes, but which individuals seem to have recently embraced for speculative purposes. CBOE data indicate that option trading by individual investors has risen 4x over the past 5 years. As noted by Gundan Banerdi in the Wall Street Journal, “Nine of 10 of the most-active call-options trading days in history have taken place in 2021, Cboe Global Markets data show. Almost 39 million option contracts have changed hands on an average day this year, up 31% from 2020 and the highest level since the market’s inception in 1973, according to figures from the Options Clearing Corp.” As a result, the options market has grown so large that in some respects it’s bigger than the stock market. In 2021, for example, according to CBOE data, the daily average notional value of single stock options was over $432 billion, compared with $404 billion in stocks. We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: staying the course and taking a long-term view is one of individual investors’ best ways of stacking the odds of investment success in their favor. According to Dalbar, over the past 20 years the S&P 500 has advanced 7.5% annually, yet the average investor has gained a mere 2.9% (barely beating the 2.1% inflation over the period). Why this underperformance? Partly because investors let their emotions get the best of them and chase the latest investment fad (or they pile into equities at market peaks and sell out at market troughs)—or sell for nonfundamental reasons, such as simply because a company’s share price (or an index) has increased in value. By contrast, taking a multiyear view tilts the odds of success in investors’ favor. Since 1950, the range of stock market returns measured by the S&P 500 (using data supplied by JP Morgan) in any given year has been from +47% to -39%. For any given 5-year period, however, that range is +28% to -3%—and for any given 20-year period, it is +17% to +6%. In short, since 1950, there has never been a 20-year period when investors did not make at least 6% per year in the stock market. Although past performance is certainly no guarantee of future returns, history shows that the longer the time frame you give yourself, the better your chances of earning a satisfactory return. As always, we’re available to answer any questions you might have. If you’d like to discuss these issues further, please reach out to us at jboyar@boyarvaluegroup.com or 212-995-8300. Best regards, Mark A. Boyar Jonathan I. Boyar Boyar Value Group Updated on Oct 14, 2021, 2:01 pm (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkOct 14th, 2021

Polkadot soars to break above $40 as parachain auction date moves its multichain network closer to a real-world launch

Polkadot's token has shot up to top $40 for the first time in five months after the project set a date for parachain auctions. Polkadot moxumbic Polkadot's token shot up to top $40 for the first time in five months after a likely date for parachain auctions was set. The auctions on November 11 will bring the interoperable multichain network closer to a real-world launch. Polkadot parachains can share data and link to external blockchains like ethereum, and could unlock new services like DeFi and NFTs. Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell. Polkadot's token surged to top $40 for the first time in five months after the project set a date for its first parachain auctions, getting closer to a real-world launch of its multi-blockchain framework.Dot's price rose as much as 19% to a high of $43.56 on Wednesday after the auction announcement, according to Binance data. It was trading at $40.76 at last check Thursday.Parachains are separate layer 1 blockchains that can run in parallel and send data to each other. They bring a multichain architecture of several networks to polkadot, and they can enable other layer 1 protocols like ethereum and bitcoin to seamlessly connect.The polkadot team has been testing its parachain technology and process on its guinea-pig network kusama, to make sure they are battle-tested for launch. It has now set a likely date of November 11 for accepting bids to build on polkadot."This means that over the coming year, we'll finally witness a lot more interoperability across blockchains," Eliézer Ndinga, research lead at crypto exchange-traded products provider 21Shares, told Insider. "(This) will improve by orders of magnitude the user experience, to unlock the next wave of user-owned internet services that we already see in the following sectors: financial services (DeFi) - media, art and games (NFTs)," Ndinga added. A parachain can be modified to carry out specific DeFi functions. Plus, what polkadot has set out to do could enable different blockchains to work together as part of one ecosystem - which could bring in the "Wi-Fi" crypto adoption that cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has described.Altcoins such as polkadot have been on a tear this year, though some analysts believe they are still undervalued, given their promise for new applications. Over 2021 so far, the coin has risen by almost 852%, according to Binance data. James Butterfill, investment strategist at CoinShares, told Insider he sees the finalization of the parachain disputes and code audit completion as key to the Polkadot price rising to near all-time highs."It's an important hurdle to overcome, with it now setting the path for the parachain auctions," Butterfill said.The initial batch of five auctions will feature one new auction weekly. Each auction on Polkadot will assign a parachain slot for a total of 96 weeks, making it an ongoing process.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 14th, 2021

Putin Praises Crypto As Possible "Weaponized" Dollar Replacement

Putin Praises Crypto As Possible 'Weaponized' Dollar Replacement Update (0920ET): Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman piled on the mockery of JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon's dismissal of crypto by stating on this morning's earnings call that “We’re not directly trading crypto” for retail clients but: “I don’t think crypto’s a fad. I don’t think it’s going to go away. I don’t know what the value of Bitcoin should or shouldn’t be. These things aren’t going away.” *  *  * Russian President Vladimir Putin further rattled American financial officials after hinting that while he considers cryptocurrency "crude and under-developed," it could "some day" be used instead of the US dollar to trade with. The Russian president discussed potential use cases of cryptocurrencies in a Thursday CNBC interview following a plenary session of the ​​Russian Energy Week forum. "I believe that it has value," Putin told CNBC at the Russian Energy Week event in Moscow on Wednesday, when asked whether bitcoin or cryptocurrencies can be used in place of the US dollar. "But I don't believe it can be used in the oil trade." According to the interviews the Kremlin’s official website, Putin said that private cryptocurrencies “can act as a unit of account” but they are “very unstable.” “Cryptocurrency oil contracts? It’s too early to talk about it. It works for transferring funds from one place to another, but in terms of trading, especially when it comes to energy resources, it is still premature in my opinion,” the president stated. The Russian government has been closely monitoring the cryptocurrency market, Putin said, adding that he believes it's possible crypto could simply become a “means of accumulation.” “We see how his market fluctuates. It’s a bit early today." Right now, cryptocurrencies aren't backed by "anything yet," Putin said. But when asked whether he considers the crypto holdings by Tesla CEO Elon Musk to be “worthless,” Putin said no, explaining that he meant to explore crypto's viability as a unit of account for the energy market. Later in the interview, Putin reiterated his criticisms about how Washington's abuse of the dollar's dominance is tantamount to brandishing an "economic weapon", and remains keen to ditch dollar-denominated payments. "I believe the US makes a huge mistake in using the dollar as a sanction instrument," he said. "We are forced. We have no other choice but to move to transactions in other currencies." "In this regard, we can say the United States bites the hand that feeds it," the world leader added. "This dollar is a competitive advantage. It is a universal reserve currency, and the United States today uses it to pursue political goals, and they harm their strategic and economic interests as a result." "We aren’t interested in cutting off dollar payments completely, and we are so far satisfied with payments for energy resources in dollars, primarily for oil," he added. Finally, in a distinct break from China, which has worked to suppress crypto mining and trading on its mainland, Putin went on to say that “everything evolves” and “has the right to exist." Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 09:55.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 14th, 2021

Wells Fargo Tumbles After Another Ugly Quarter: Loans Shrink Again As Home Lending Tumbles

Wells Fargo Tumbles After Another Ugly Quarter: Loans Shrink Again As Home Lending Tumbles In a day when the big banks reported generally stellar earnings (especially Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on the back of record advisory fees), easing the bitter aftertaste from yesterday's disappointing report from JPMorgan, even perennial Wall Street disappointment Wells Fargo managed to beat expectations with net Interest margin posting a much awaited bounce, although there was the usual "but" of higher expenses and failure to post an increase in loan growth.. Wells Fargo reported EPS of $1.17, beating expectations of $0.99, thanks to revenue of $18.83BN, also stronger than the $18.37Bn expected. This translated into income of $5.1 billion, which however was padded by a $1.7 billion reserve release "due to continued improvements in the economic environment", resulting in an allowance coverage for total loans down 22 bps from 2Q21 and down 52 bps from 3Q20.  The firm also took a $250 million charge related to its latest regulatory order, which drove costs higher than analysts expected.   The company's earnings summarized: There was some much awaited good news on the Net Interest front, where both net interest income and margin posted a modest sequential improvement, rising $109MM or 1% from Q1, due to rising yields in Q3. Still, on a Y/Y basis, net interest income decreased $470 million or 5%, "reflecting the impact of lower loan balances due to soft demand and elevated prepayments, and the impact of lower yields on earning assets, partially offset by a decline in long-term debt and lower mortgage-backed securities (MBS) premium amortization."  In any case, since Wells Fargo is the most net interest income-reliant bank in the US, the reversal in NIM was certainly good news. With NIM down Y/Y, expenses followed and the bank reported that noninterest expense (which consists mostly of personnel expenses) was flat sequentially and down 12.6% from a year ago, though analysts had expected a 14% drop. And even though headcount fell to 253,871, from 259,196 at the end of June, personnel expenses actually rose 1% from a year ago "as lower salaries expense driven by reduced headcount reflecting efficiency initiatives was more than offset by higher incentive and revenue-related compensation." But perhaps the most important, and disappointing aspect of Wells' results was that total average loans shrank again, and while commercial loans posted a small increase sequentially of $1.2BN to $478.2BN, Consumer Loans dropped by almost $2BN from $377.7BN to $375.9BN in Q3, and down a whopping $58.1BN from a year ago. The total average loan yield of 3.29%, was down 4 bps from 2Q21 and down 12 bps YoY reflecting the repricing impacts of lower interest rates, as well as lower consumer real estate loans. Meanwhile, as we have been discussing for the past 5 quarters, average deposits - a proxy for the Fed's QE - were up $51.9 billion, or 4%, YoY "as growth across most businesses was partially offset by targeted actions to manage to the asset cap, primarily in Corporate Treasury and Corporate and Investment Banking." The good news it that this remains the cheapest funding possible for Wells - at an average deposit cost of 3 bps, it was stable with 2Q21 and down 6 bps YoY reflecting the lower interest rate environment. The biggest U.S. banks have been struggling with weak loan growth as consumers and businesses, bolstered by massive government stimulus programs during the pandemic, refrained from borrowing. The rise of the delta variant has also delayed a return to normal and slowed economic activity. Average loans fell 8%, Wells Fargo said. There was more bad news in the bank's consumer banking and lending group, where total revenue was down 4% YoY. Some more details: CSBB up 2% YoY primarily due to an increase in consumer activity, including higher debit card transactions, and lower COVID-19-related fee waivers; up 2% from 2Q21 primarily driven by higher deposit-related fees and higher net interest income on higher deposits Credit Card up 4% YoY on higher point-of-sale volume and lower customer accommodations and fee waivers provided in response to COVID-19 Auto up 10% YoY and up 7% from 2Q21 on higher loan balances What was most disappointing was that Home Lending - where Wells Fargo once dominated the market - was down 20% YoY primarily due to lower mortgage banking income on lower gain on sale margins, origination volumes, and servicing fees, as well as lower net interest income on lower loans outstanding. In short, it is the biggest housing bubble in US history - bigger even that 2007- and Wells still can't capitalize on it! Finally, while for Wells, Banking and Sales and Trading are mostly an afterthought - after all, who would pick the trading desk at Wells over, well, anyone else - and the bank is not even close in the same ballpark as its bigger peers, it did post a modest, 2% increase in corporate and ibanking revenue to $3.385 billion, which was also up 1%, or $47MM, from last quarter. Banking revenue was up 12% YoY "on higher advisory and equity origination fees, and higher loan balances, partially offset by lower deposit balances predominantly due to actions taken to manage under the asset cap" Commercial Real Estate revenue up 10% YoY reflecting higher commercial servicing income, loan balances, and capital markets results on stronger commercial mortgage gain on sale volumes and margins and higher underwriting fees; down 7% from 2Q21 on lower capital markets volumes and commercial mortgage servicing income Yet here too there was a disappointment, as markets revenue dropped 15% YoY to just $1.176BN on "lower trading activity across most asset classes primarily due to market conditions" As Bloomberg notes, the mixed results were a reminder that challenges remain for Scharf, who took the helm of Wells Fargo in 2019. The bank has been cutting jobs and slashing costs as Scharf seeks to boost the firm’s profitability after years of scandals, which have continued this year as the bank has seen several settlements with regulators, a sordid legacy of its ugly past. “The significant deficiencies that existed when I arrived must remain our top priority,” Scharf said in the statement. “We are a different company today and the operational and cultural changes we’ve made are enabling us to execute with significantly greater discipline than we have in the past.” Or not: during the quarter, Wells Fargo was hit with a new regulatory action and a $250 million fine over its lack of progress addressing long-standing problems -- a topic that is sure to come up on the bank’s analyst call. The firm is also still under a Federal Reserve-imposed asset cap, which limits its balance sheet. Bottom line: another swing and another miss, with Wells shares the worst performing of all banks this morning. Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 10:19.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 14th, 2021

Bank of America Spikes On Blowout Q3 Report: Record Advisory Fees, NIM Beats, Solid Loan Growth

Bank of America Spikes On Blowout Q3 Report: Record Advisory Fees, NIM Beats, Solid Loan Growth When JPMorgan kicked off Q3 earnings yesterday, investor ignored the solid top-line results driven by a surge in advisory and ibanking revenue, and instead were more concerned by the latest decline in consumer and commercial loans and the drop in FICC trading. Would Bank of America follow the same fate when it reported results today? Moments ago BofA reported Q3 earnings which like JPM beat on the top and bottom line, to wit: Revenue net of interest expense $22.77 billion, up 12% Y/Y, and beating the $21.78 billion expected EPS 85c, up 67% Y/Y and beating estimates of 71c Similar to JPM, BofA's benefited from a $1.1BN reserve release, a sharp reversal from the $0.4BN reserve build a year ago; it consisted of a $624MM benefit from credit losses vs. a provision of $1.39 billion year earlier and was sharply higher than the estimated recovery $175.2 million; Charge offs in Q3 amounted to just $0.5BN, half the amount a year ago. On the expense side, noninterest expense of $14.4B declined $0.6B, or 4%, from 2Q21, and was relatively flat YoY. The bank's efficiency ratio was 63% with operating leverage of approximately 1,200 bps. CEO Brian Moynihan reiterated optimistic macro views: “We reported strong results as the economy continued to improve and our businesses regained the organic customer growth momentum we saw before the pandemic. Deposit growth was strong and loan balances increased for the second consecutive quarter, leading to an improvement in net interest income even as interest rates remained low.” Drilling down on the income statement first, we find that just like JPM, BofA benefits from a surge in capital markets advisory activity even as the bank's result were also boosted from stronger than expected trading resulits: Net interest income $11.20 (FTE) billion, also beating the estimate of $10.65 billion, up 10%, driven by strong deposit growth and related investment of excess liquidity, as well as Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan activity Noninterest income of $11.7B increased $1.5B, or 14%, with growth across every business segment Sales and Trading revenue excluding DVA $3.63 billion, +8.8% y/y, estimate $3.27 billion FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $2.03 billion, estimate $1.86 billion; FICC revenue of $2.0B decreased 5%, driven by "a weaker trading environment for mortgage and interest rate products, partially offset by improved client flows in foreign exchange" Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $1.61 billion, estimate $1.41 billion, up 33%, "driven by growth in client financing activities, a stronger trading performance and increased client activity" While revenue were sharply higher, expenses rose just 5% to $3.3B driven by higher activity-based expenses. Finally, despite the increase in results, Q3's average VaR was $78MM, far below the $109 a year ago. BofA said that its global markets is on course for its best revenue performance in more than four years: Total sales and trading revenues currently stand at $12.3 billion, up $200 million year-on-year driven by the equities business. While capital markets were solid, it was another record print for advisory revenues after JPMorgan’s numbers yesterday. Bank of America’s advisory fee haul jumped 65% in the third quarter to an all-time high of $654 million. Some more details: total banking revenue of $5.2B increased $0.7B vs. 3Q20, "reflecting higher investment banking fees, higher leasing-related revenue, and strong deposit growth, which benefited NII. Total investment banking fees of $2.2B (excl. self-led) rose $400 million, or 23%, from 3Q20." As BofA notes, Q3 was the second best quarter for firm-wide fees post- merger, after 1Q21. Of course, bigger investment banking revenues means bigger bonuses for bankers. Non-interest expenses grew 7% in global banking to $2.5 billion in the quarter, which was “largely driven by higher revenue-related costs and continued investments in the franchise.” As with JPM, BofA is investing actively in fintech and digital adoption and the following slide summarized its latest progress here: Eslewhere, America looks reported revenue from wealth and investment management - an area where many of the world’s biggest banks are trying to boost business at the moment - reached a record $5.3 billion, up 17% year-on-year. Client balances, too, are at an all-time high of $3.7 trillion, a 6% increase driven by rising market valuations and strong inflows of funds. Stepping away from the Income Statement, BofA was a standout performer when it comes to its balance sheet, where it did manage to scratch out some loan growth in the quarter. The average loans and leases in its business segments rose to $903 billion, a 1.6% increase from the second quarter. It remains to be seen if that’s enough to please analysts and investors. In a separate positive sign, Bloomberg points to the credit card business which looks like it may have turned a corner. Average outstanding balances were up about 3% from the second quarter, to $75.6 billion. That’s the first quarter-over-quarter gain since before the pandemic. And here is another reason for shares to rally: unlike JPM, BofA net interest yield not only rose but was better-than-anticipated (BofA is regarded as a particularly interest-rate sensitive bank). Net interest yield of 1.68% rose 7 basis points from the second quarter, beating an estimate of 1.63%. Net interest income of $11.1B ($11.2B FTE) – increased $861MM from 2Q21 or 8.4%, "driven by deposit growth and related investment of liquidity, higher PPP NII due to loan forgiveness, lower premium amortization expense, higher loan balances, and one additional accrual day." The bank estimates (as of September 30) that a positive 100 bps parallel shift in the yield curve would benefit net interest income by $7.2 billion over the next 12 months. Bottom line, in a nearless flawless report, which unlike JPM saw growth across all loan segments and beat on Net Interest Income, Bank of America beat analysts’ earnings estimates as advisory fees soared, boosted by a record-breaking period for mergers and acquisitions. Investment-banking advisory fees rose 65% to $654 million in the third quarter as firms leaned on Bank of America to handle their debt and equity financing, and a combination of cheap financing for buyers and attractive valuations for sellers spurred a wave of takeovers. And so, when looking at the blowout Q3 report which included record advisory fees, stronger (and rising) NIM and loan growth, iut's not surprising to see BofA stock surging in the premarket, a far more forceful response than JPM's steady leak on Wednesday. Full Q3 investor presentation below (pdf link) The Presentation Materials(1) by Zerohedge on Scribd Tyler Durden Thu, 10/14/2021 - 07:49.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 14th, 2021

IMF warns of the danger to the financial system from "disappearing" crypto coins and the instability of stablecoins

The IMF warned countries about risks that came with the growing crypto space, such as missing coins and volatile stablecoins, in a report Tuesday. Bitcoin balloon Andriy Onufriyenko The IMF warned countries about the risks that came with the growing crypto space in a report Tuesday. More than 16,000 tokens have been listed on exchanges, but only around 9,000 exist today, the report said. The fund said stablecoins were vulnerable to volatility and investor runs despite being pegged to another asset. Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a warning about the growing risks in the expanding cryptocurrency space, including fraud, excess speculation and potential "runs" on seemingly more stable assets, in a report on Tuesday. Crypto in all its forms, such as digital coins like bitcoin and stablecoins like the USDC, has been spreading around the globe. Nearly half of the world's central banks have looked into creating their own digital currencies, which would be centralized and be more secure than pure cryptocurrencies. "Investor protection risks loom large for crypto assets and decentralized finance," the report said in the executive summary document. More than 16,000 tokens have been listed on various exchanges like Coinbase, Binance and Kraken over time, but only around 9,000 exist today, the report said. Some of these tokens were purely speculative and impacted solely by social media trends. "Investors are - likely to face losses from tokens ceasing to exist-something that is less common in regulated securities markets," the IMF said. Some countries such as Argentina, Mexico and Thailand have stopped exchanges from offering tokens that display particular characteristics, the report said. Regulators around the world have stepped up their oversight of the crypto market, while some commercial banks have stopped their customers from transferring money to certain crypto exchanges. China's recent banning of all crypto mining and trading is the harshest example so far of the kind of pressure the sector can come under. Another factor the IMF emphasized was stablecoins, which are pegged to an underlying asset such as cash or bonds, were vulnerable to volatility and investor runs.A few months ago, investors saw the value of a decentralized finance token called titan, which was part of an algorithmic stablecoin project from Iron Finance, drop in hours from around $60 to a tiny fraction of a cent. Whale accounts unloaded their shares and triggered the equivalent of a bank run, as smaller traders rushed to recoup their money. The meltdown even caught billionaire Mark Cuban off guard. "I got hit like everyone else," he tweeted at the time. "An investor run in one country can also lead to cross-border spillovers if large global crypto exchanges are involved. The concentrated ownership of stablecoins by market makers could also trigger wider contagion," the report said. Stablecoins have also come under fire on account of the composition of their reserves - the most prominent so far is the tether token, which claimed to be fully backed by US dollars, but is largely backed by short-term corporate debt. The IMF recommended countries collaborate to address the technological, legal, regulatory, and supervisory challenges that crypto assets can bring."Where standards have not yet been developed, regulators need to use existing tools to control risk and implement a flexible framework for crypto assets," the report said. The IMF said central bank digital currencies could resolve some of the stability and transparency issues around the crypto market.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytOct 13th, 2021

Futures Rebound From Overnight Slide As Oil Keeps Rising

Futures Rebound From Overnight Slide As Oil Keeps Rising US equity-index futures erased earlier declines, rebounding from a loss of as much as 0.8% helped by the start of the European session and easing mounting concerns about stagflation from rising energy prices, signs of widening regulatory scrutiny by China, and the upcoming third-quarter earnings which is expected to post a sharply slower pace of growth and beats than recent record quarters. At 730am ET, Dow e-minis were up 5 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 7.25 points, or 0.16%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 46.75points, or 0.31%. Oiil rose 0.3% to $83.86/bbl while the dollar dipped and 10Y yield drifted back under 1.60%. Gains in tech stocks kept Nasdaq futures afloat on Tuesday, while energy names rose as Brent resumed gains, trading around $84/bbl on expectations that a power crisis from Asia to Europe will lift demand and tighten global balances. Higher oil prices and supply chain disruptions have set off alarm bells for businesses and consumers ahead of the third-quarter reporting season that kicks off on Wednesday with JPMorgan results.  "We believe that market participants could stay concerned over high energy prices translating into further acceleration in inflation, and thereby faster tightening by major central banks," said Charalambos Pissouros, head of research at JFD Group. In the pre-market, Tesla rose 0.7% after data showed the electric vehicle maker sold 56,006 China-made vehicles in September, the highest since it started production in Shanghai about two years ago. Oil firms including Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp gained 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, as Brent crude hit a near-three year high on energy crunch fears. Here are the notable movers: China’s Internet sector is one of the “most undervalued” in Morningstar’s coverage, says Ivan Su, an analyst, adding that Tencent (TCEHY US) and Netease (NTES US) are top picks MGM Resorts (MGM US) rises 2% in U.S. premarket trading after stock was upgraded to outperform from neutral and price target more than doubled to a Street-high $68 at Credit Suisse Quanterix (QTRX US) jumped 20% in Monday postmarket trading after the digital-health company announced that its Simoa phospho-Tau 181 blood test has been granted breakthrough device designation by the U.S. FDA as an aid in diagnostic evaluation of Alzheimer’s disease Relay Therapeutics (RLAY US) fell 7% in Monday postmarket trading after launching a $350 million share sale via Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Cowen, Guggenheim Securities Westwater Resources (WWR US) rose as much as 26% in Monday postmarket trading after its board of directors approved construction of the first phase of a production facility in Alabama for battery ready graphite products TechnipFMC (FTI US) in focus after co. was awarded a substantial long-term charter and services contract by Petrobras for the pipelay support vessel Coral do Atlântico Fastenal, which was one of the first companies to report Q3 earnings, saw its shares fall 2.4% in premarket trading on Tuesday, after the industrial distributor said the Covid-related boost was fading. The company said growth in the quarter was slightly limited by either slower expansion or contraction in sales of certain products related to the pandemic, when compared to the previous year quarter. While there was an uptick in sales of certain Covid-related supplies, the unit price of many products was down significantly, the company said in a statement.  Third-quarter sales and profit were in line with the average analyst estimate "While investors want to believe the narrative that stock markets can continue to move higher, this belief is bumping up against the reality of how the continued rise in energy prices, as well as supply-chain pressures, are likely to impact company profit margins,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in London. In Europe, losses led by basic resources companies and carmakers outweighed gains for utilities and tech stocks, pulling the Stoxx Europe 600 Index down 0.1%. Metals miner Rio Tinto was among the worst performers, dropping 2.7%. European equities climbed off the lows having lost over 1% in early trade. Euro Stoxx 600 was down -0.35% after dropping as much as 1.3% initially, led by basic resources companies and carmakers outweighed gains for utilities and tech stocks. The DAX is off 0.3%, FTSE 100 underperforms in a quiet morning for news flow. Miners, banks and autos are the weakest sectors after China reported a sharp drop in auto sales; utilities, tech and real estate post modest gains. European tech stocks slide, with the Stoxx Tech Index dropping as much as 1.4% in third straight decline, as another broker downgrades TeamViewer, while Prosus and chip stocks come under pressure. TeamViewer shares fall as much as 5.1% after Deutsche Bank downgrades the remote software maker to hold from buy following recent guidance cut. Asian stocks fell, halting a three-day rally as uncertainty over earnings deepened amid elevated inflation, higher bond yields and the risk of a widening Chinese crackdown on private industry. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.2%, led by technology and communication shares. Alibaba plunged 3.9% following a rally over the past week, while Samsung Electronics tumbled to a 10-month low after at least five brokers slashed their price targets, as China’s power crisis is seen worsening supply-chain disruptions. “Given the run-up in tech so far, it’s not difficult for investors to harvest profits first before figuring out if techs can maintain their growth when yields rise,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. Shares in Hong Kong and the mainland were among the worst performers after Chinese authorities kicked off an inspection of the nation’s financial regulators and biggest state-run banks in an effort to root out corruption. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down 12% from a February peak, with a global energy crunch lifting input prices and the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group weighing on the financial sector. Investors are waiting to see how this impacts earnings, according to Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia.  “Increasing concerns on inflation potentially being more persistent have started to show up,” he said. “This comes along with the global risk-off mood overnight, as investors look for greater clarity from the earnings season on how margins are holding up, along with the corporate economic outlook.” Japan’s Topix index also fell, halting a two-day rally, amid concerns about a global energy crunch and the possibility of a widening Chinese crackdown on private industry. The Topix fell 0.7% to 1,982.68 at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 0.9% to 28,230.61. SoftBank Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s drop, decreasing 2.4%. Out of 2,181 shares in the index, 373 rose and 1,743 fell, while 65 were unchanged. “Market conditions were improving yesterday, but pushing for higher prices got tough when the Nikkei 225 approached its key moving averages,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.  The Nikkei’s 75-day moving average is about 28,500 and the 200-day moving average is about 28,700, so some investors were taking profits, he said. Japan’s spot power price increased to the highest level in nine months, as the global energy crisis intensifies competition for generation fuel before the winter heating season. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed an overnight gain as the greenback slipped against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Risk sensitive Scandinavian currencies led gains, followed by the New Zealand and Australian dollars. The pound was little changed while speculators ramped up wagers on sterling’s decline at the fastest rate in more than two years, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show, further breaking the link between anticipated rate increases and currency gains. The yen steadied after three days of declines. The Turkish lira extended its slide to a record low after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinted at a possible military offensive into neighboring Syria. Fixed-income was quiet by recent standards: Treasury futures were off lows of the day, improving as S&P 500 futures pare losses during European morning, and as cash trading resumed after Monday’s holiday. The 10Y yield dipped from 1.61% to 1.59% after hitting 1.65% based on futures pricing on Monday, but the big mover was on the front end, where 2-year yields climbed as much as 4bps to 0.35% the highest level since March 2020 reflecting increased expectations for Fed rate hikes, as Treasury cash trading resumed globally. Two coupon auctions during U.S. session -- of 3-and 10-year notes -- may weigh on Treasuries however.  Treasury and gilt curves bull-flatten with gilts outperforming at the back end. Bunds have a bull-steepening bias but ranges are narrow. Peripheral spreads tighten a touch with long-end Italy outperforming peers. In commodities, Crude futures drift higher in muted trade. WTI is up 0.25% near $80.70, Brent trades just shy of a $84-handle. Spot gold remains range-bound near $1,760/oz. Base metals are mixed with LME lead and nickel holding small gains, copper and aluminum in the red. Looking at the day ahead, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Vice Chair Clarida,Bostic and Barkin, as well as theECB’s President Lagarde, Makhlouf, Knot, Villeroy, Lane and Elderson. Data highlights from the US include the JOLTS job openings for August, and the NFIB’s small business optimism index for September which came in at 99.1, below last month's 100.1. The IMF will be releasing their latest World Economic Outlook. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,351.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 454.90 MXAP down 0.9% to 194.41 MXAPJ down 1.0% to 635.42 Nikkei down 0.9% to 28,230.61 Topix down 0.7% to 1,982.68 Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 24,962.59 Shanghai Composite down 1.2% to 3,546.94 Sensex little changed at 60,149.85 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,280.73 Kospi down 1.4% to 2,916.38 German 10Y yield fell 6 bps to -0.113% Euro up 0.1% to $1.1565 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $84.01/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,757.84 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.29 Top Overnight Headlines from Bloomberg The EU drew record demand for its debut green bond, in the sector’s biggest-ever offering. The bloc registered more than 135 billion euros ($156 billion) in orders Tuesday for a sale of 12 billion euros of securities maturing in 2037 Investors are dumping negative-yielding debt at the fastest pace since February as concerns about inflation and reduced central bank stimulus propel global interest rates higher French President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a 30-billion-euro ($35 billion) plan to create the high-tech champions of the future and reverse years of industrial decline in the euro area’s second-largest economy British companies pushed the number of workers on payrolls above pre-coronavirus levels last month, an indication of strength in the labor market that may embolden the Bank of England to raise interest rates. As the Biden administration and governments around the world celebrate another advance toward an historic global tax accord, an obscure legal question in the U.S. threatens to tear it apart Chinese property developers are suffering credit rating downgrades at the fastest pace in five years, as a recent slump in new-home sales adds to concerns about the sector’s debt woes German investor confidence declined for a fifth month in October, adding to evidence that global supply bottlenecks and a surge in inflation are weighing on the recovery in Europe’s largest economy Social Democrat Olaf Scholz’s bid to succeed Angela Merkel as German chancellor is running into its first test as tensions emerge in talks to bridge policy differences with the Greens and pro-business Free Democrats A more detailed breakdown of global markets from Newsquawk Asian equity markets traded mostly lower following the indecisive mood stateside where the major indices gave back initial gains to finish negative amid lingering inflation and global slowdown concerns, with sentiment overnight also hampered by tighter Beijing scrutiny and with US equity futures extending on losses in which the Emini S&P retreated beneath its 100DMA. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was subdued as weakness in energy, tech and financials led the declines in Australia and with participants also digesting mixed NAB business survey data. Nikkei 225 (-0.9%) was on the backfoot after the Japan Center for Economic Research noted that GDP contracted 0.9% M/M in August and with retailers pressured after soft September sales updates from Lawson and Seven & I Holdings, while the KOSPI (-1.4%) was the laggard on return from holiday with chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix subdued as they face new international taxation rules following the recent global minimum tax deal. Hang Seng (-1.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.3%) adhered to the downbeat picture following a continued liquidity drain by the PBoC and with Beijing scrutinising Chinese financial institutions’ ties with private firms, while default concerns lingered after Evergrande missed yesterday’s payments and with Modern Land China seeking a debt extension on a USD 250mln bond to avoid any potential default. Finally, 10yr JGBs eked minimal gains amid the weakness in stocks but with demand for bonds limited after the recent subdued trade in T-note futures owing to yesterday’s cash bond market closure and following softer results across all metrics in the 30yr JGB auction. Top Asian News Alibaba Stock Revival Halted on Concerns of Rising Bond Yields Iron Ore Rally Pauses as China Steel Curbs Cloud Demand Outlook China’s Star Board Sees Rough Start to Fourth Quarter: ECM Watch Citi Lists Top Global Stock Picks for ‘Disruptive Innovations’ European bourses kicked the day off choppy but have since drifted higher (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%; Stoxx 600 Unch) as the region remains on standby for the next catalyst, and as US earnings season officially kicks off tomorrow – not to mention the US and Chinese inflation metrics and FOMC minutes. US equity futures have also nursed earlier losses and reside in relatively flat territory at the time of writing, with broad-based performance seen in the ES (Unch), NQ (+0.2%), RTY (-0.2%), YM (Unch). From a technical standpoint, some of the Dec contracts are now hovering around their respective 100 DMAs at 4,346 for the ES, 14,744 for the NQ, whilst the RTY sees its 200 DMA at 2,215, and the YM topped its 21 DMA at 34,321. Back to Europe, cash markets see broad-based downside with the SMI (-0.1%) slightly more cushioned amid gains in heavyweight Nestle (+0.6%). Sectors kicked off the day with a defensive bias but have since seen a slight reconfiguration, with Real Estate now the top performer alongside Food & Beverages, Tech and Healthcare. On the flip side, Basic Resources holds its position as the laggard following yesterday's marked outperformance and despite base metals (ex-iron) holding onto yesterday's gains. Autos also reside at the bottom of the bunch despite constructive commentary from China's Auto Industry Body CAAM, who suggested the chip supply shortage eased in China in September and expected Q4 to improve, whilst sources suggested Toyota aims to make up some lost production as supplies rebound. In terms of individual movers, GSK (+2.3%) shares spiked higher amid reports that its USD 54bln consumer unit has reportedly attracted buyout interest, according to sources, in turn lifting the FTSE 100 Dec future by 14 points in the immediacy. Elsewhere, easyJet (-1.9%) gave up its earlier gains after refraining on guidance, and despite an overall constructive trading update whereby the Co. sees positive momentum carried into FY22, with H1 bookings double those in the same period last year. Co. expects to fly up to 70% of FY19 planned capacity in FY22. In terms of commentary, the session saw the Germany ZEW release, which saw sentiment among experts deteriorate, citing the persisting supply bottlenecks for raw materials and intermediate products. The release also noted that 49.1% of expects still expect inflation to rise further in the next six months. Heading into earnings season, experts also expect profits to go down, particularly in export-tilted sectors such a car making, chemicals and pharmaceuticals. State-side, sources suggested that EU antitrust regulators are reportedly likely to open an investigation into Nvidia's (+0.6% Pre-Mkt) USD 54bln bid from Arm as concessions were not deemed sufficient. Top European News Soybeans Near 10-Month Low as Supply Outlook Expected to Improve EasyJet Boosts Capacity as Travel Rebound Gathers Pace Currency Traders Are Betting the BOE Is About to Make a Mistake Citi Lists Top Global Stock Picks for ‘Disruptive Innovations’ In FX, the Buck has reclaimed a bit more lost ground in consolidatory trade rather than any real sign of a change in fundamentals following Monday’s semi US market holiday for Columbus Day and ahead of another fairly light data slate comprising NFIB business optimism and JOLTS. However, supply awaits the return of cash Treasuries in the form of Usd 58 bn 3 year and Usd 38 bn 10 year notes and Fed commentary picks up pace on the eve of FOMC minutes with no less than five officials scheduled to speak. Meanwhile, broad risk sentiment has taken a knock in wake of a late swoon on Wall Street to give the Greenback and underlying bid and nudge the index up to fresh post-NFP highs within a 94.226-433 band. NZD/AUD - A slight change in fortunes down under as the Kiwi derives some comfort from the fact that the Aud/Nzd has not breached 1.0600 to the upside and Nzd/Usd maintaining 0.6950+ status irrespective of mixed NZ electric card sales data, while the Aussie takes on board contrasting NAB business conditions and confidence readings in advance of consumer sentiment, with Aud/Usd rotating either side of 0.7350. EUR/CAD/GBP/CHF/JPY - All rangy and marginally mixed against their US counterpart, as the Euro straddles 1.1560, the Loonie meanders between 1.2499-62 with less fuel from flat-lining crude and the Pound tries to keep sight of 1.3600 amidst corrective moves in Eur/Gbp following a rebound through 0.8500 after somewhat inconclusive UK labour and earnings data, but hardly a wince from the single currency even though Germany’s ZEW survey missed consensus and the institute delivered a downbeat assessment of the outlook for the coming 6 months. Elsewhere, the Franc continues to hold within rough 0.9250-90 extremes and the Yen is striving to nurse outsize losses between 113.00-50 parameters, with some attention to 1 bn option expiries from 113.20-25 for the NY cut. Note also, decent expiry interest in Eur/Usd and Usd/Cad today, but not as close to current spot levels (at the 1.1615 strike in 1.4 bn and between 1.2490-1.2505 in 1.1 bn respectively). SCANDI/EM - The Nok and Sek have bounced from lows vs the Eur, and the latter perhaps taking heed of a decline in Sweden’s registered jobless rate, but the Cnh and Cny remain off recent highs against the backdrop of more Chinese regulatory rigour, this time targeting state banks and financial institutions with connections to big private sector entities and the Try has thrown in the towel in terms of its fight to fend off approaches towards 9.0000 vs the Usd. The final straw for the Lira appeared to be geopolitical, as Turkish President Erdogan said they will take the necessary steps in Syria and are determined to eliminate threats, adding that Turkey has lost its patience on the attacks coming from Syrian Kurdish YPG controlled areas. Furthermore, he stated there is a Tal Rifaat pocket controlled by YPG below Afrin and that an operation could target that area which is under Russian protection. However, Usd/Try is off a new ATH circa 9.0370 as oil comes off the boil and ip came in above forecast. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures are choppy and trade on either side of the flat mark in what is seemingly some consolidation and amid a distinct lack of catalysts to firmly dictate price action. The complex saw downticks heading into the European cash open in tandem with the overall market sentiment at the time, albeit the crude complex has since recovered off worst levels. News flow for the complex has also remained minimal as eyes now turn to any potential intervention by major economies in a bid to stem the pass-through of energy prices to consumers heading into winter. On that note, UK nat gas futures have been stable on the day but still north of GBP 2/Thm. Looking ahead, the weekly Private Inventory data has been pushed back to tomorrow on account of yesterday's Columbus Day holiday. Tomorrow will also see the release of the OPEC MOMR and EIA STEO. Focus on the former will be on any updates to its demand forecast, whilst commentary surrounding US shale could be interesting as it'll give an insight into OPEC's thinking on the threat of Shale under President Biden's "build back better" plan. Brent Dec trades on either side of USD 84/bbl (vs prev. 83.13-84.14 range) whilst WTI trades just under USD 81/bbl after earlier testing USD 80/bbl to the downside (USD 80-80.91/bbl range). Over to metals, spot gold and silver hold onto modest gains with not much to in the way of interesting price action, with the former within its overnight range above USD 1,750/oz and the latter still north of USD 22.50/oz after failing to breach the level to the downside in European hours thus far. In terms of base metals, LME copper is holding onto most of yesterday's gains, but the USD 9,500/t mark seems to be formidable resistance. Finally, Dalian and Singapore iron ore futures retreated after a four-day rally, with traders citing China's steel production regaining focus. US Event Calendar 6am: Sept. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM 99.1,  est. 99.5, prior 100.1 10am: Aug. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 11m, prior 10.9m 11:15am: Fed’s Clarida Speaks at IIF Annual Meeting 12:30pm: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Inflation at Peterson Institute 6pm: Fed’s Barkin Interviewed for an NPR Podcast DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap It’s my wife’s birthday today and the big treat is James Bond tomorrow night. However, I was really struggling to work out what to buy her. After 11.5 years together, I ran out of original ideas at about year three and have then scrambled round every year in an attempt to be innovative. Previous innovations have seen mixed success with the best example being the nearly-to-scale oil portrait I got commissioned of both of us from our wedding day. She had no idea and hated it at the closed eyes big reveal. It now hangs proudly in our entrance hall though. Today I’ve bought her a lower key gamble. Some of you might know that there is a US website called Cameo that you can pay famous people to record a video message for someone for a hefty fee. Well, all her childhood heroes on it were seemingly too expensive or not there. Then I saw that the most famous gymnast of all time, Nadia Comăneci, was available for a reasonable price. My wife idolised her as a kid (I think). So after this goes to press, I’m going to wake my wife up with a personalised video message from Nadia wishing her a happy birthday, saying she’s my perfect ten, and praising her for encouraging our three children to do gymnastics and telling her to keep strong while I try to get them to play golf instead. I’m not sure if this is a totally naff gift or inspired. When I purchased it I thought the latter but now I’m worried it’s the former! My guess is she says it’s naff, appreciates the gesture, but calls me out for the lack of chocolates. Maybe in this day and age a barrel of oil or a tank of petrol would have been the most valuable birthday present. With investor anticipation continuing to build ahead of tomorrow’s CPI release from the US, yesterday saw yet another round of commodity price rises that’s making it increasingly difficult for central banks to argue that inflation is in fact proving transitory. You don’t have to be too old to remember that back in the summer, those making the transitory argument cited goods like lumber as an example of how prices would begin to fall back again as the economy reopened. But not only have commodity aggregates continued to hit fresh highs since then, but lumber (+5.49%) itself followed up last week’s gains to hit its highest level in 3 months. Looking at those moves yesterday, it was a pretty broad-based advance across the commodity sphere, with big rises among energy and metals prices in particular. Oil saw fresh advances, with WTI (+1.47%) closing above $80/bbl for the first time since 2014, whilst Brent Crude (+1.53%) closed above $83/bbl for the first time since 2018. Meanwhile, Chinese coal futures (+8.00%) hit a record after the flooding in Shanxi province that we mentioned in yesterday’s edition, which has closed 60 of the 682 mines there, and this morning they’re already up another +6.41%. So far this year, the region has produced 30% of China’s coal supply, which gives you an idea as to its importance. And when it came to metals, aluminium prices (+3.30%) on the London Metal Exchange rose to their highest level since the global financial crisis, whilst Iron Ore futures in Singapore jumped +7.01% on Monday, and copper was also up +2.13%. The one respite on the inflation front was a further decline in natural gas prices, however, with the benchmark European future down -2.73%; thus bringing its declines to over -47% since the intraday high that was hit only last Wednesday. With commodity prices seeing another spike and inflation concerns resurfacing, this proved bad news for sovereign bonds as investors moved to price in a more hawkish central bank reaction. Yields in Europe rose across the continent, with those on 10yr bunds up +3.0bps to 0.12%, their highest level since May. The rise was driven by both higher inflation breakevens and real rates, and leaves bund yields just shy of their recent post-pandemic closing peak of -0.10% from mid-May. If they manage to surpass that point, that’ll leave them closer to positive territory than at any point since Q2 2019 when they last turned negative again. It was a similar story elsewhere, with 10yr yields on OATs (+2.6bps), BTPs (+3.9bps) and gilts (+3.1bps) likewise reaching their highest level in months. The sell-off occurred as money markets moved to price in further rate hikes from central banks, with investors now expecting a full 25 basis point hike from the Fed by the end of Q3 2022. It seems like another era, but at the start of this year before the Georgia Senate race, investors weren’t even pricing in a full hike by the end of 2023, whereas they’re now pricing in almost 4. So we’ve come a long way over 2021, though pre-Georgia the consensus CPI forecast on Bloomberg was just 2.0%, whereas it now stands at 4.3%, so it does fit with the story of much stronger-than-expected inflation inducing a hawkish response. Yesterday’s repricing came alongside a pretty minimal -0.15% move in the Euro versus the dollar, but that was because Europe was also seeing a similar rates repricing. Meanwhile, the UK saw its own ramping up of rate hike expectations, with investors pricing in at least an initial 15bps hike to 0.25% happening by the December meeting in just two months’ time. Overnight in Asia, stocks are trading in the red with the KOSPI (-1.46%), Shanghai Composite (-1.21%), Hang Seng (-1.20%), the Nikkei (-0.93%) and CSI (-0.82%) all trading lower on inflation concerns due to high energy costs and aggravated by a Wall Street Journal story that Chinese President Xi Jinping is increasing scrutiny of state-run banks and big financial institutions with inspections. Furthermore, there were signs of a worsening in the Evergrande debt situation, with the firm missing coupon payments on a 9.5% note due in 2022 and a 10% bond due in 2023. And there were fresh indications of a worsening situation more broadly, with Sinic Holdings Group Co. saying it doesn’t expect to pay the principal or interest on a $250m bond due on October 18. Separately in Japan, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Monday that he will raise pay for public workers and boost tax breaks to firms that boost wages to try and improve the country’s wealth distribution. Back to yesterday, and the commodity rally similarly weighed on thin-volume equity markets, though it took some time as the S&P 500 had initially climbed around +0.5% before paring back those gains to close down -0.69%. Before the late US sell-off, European indices were subdued, but the STOXX 600 still rose +0.05%, thanks to an outperformance from the energy sector (+1.49%), and the STOXX Banks Index (+0.13%) hit a fresh two-year high as the sector was supported by a further rise in yields. On the central bank theme, we heard from the ECB’s chief economist, Philip Lane, at a conference yesterday, where he said that “a one-off shift in the level of wages as part of the adjustment to a transitory unexpected increase in the price level does not imply a trend shift in the path of underlying inflation.” So clearly making a distinction between a more persistent pattern of wage inflation, which comes as the ECB’s recent forward guidance commits them to not hiking rates “until it sees inflation reaching two per cent well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon”, as well as having confidence that “realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at two per cent over the medium term”. Turning to the political scene, Brexit is likely to be in the headlines again today as the UK’s Brexit negotiator David Frost gives a speech in Lisbon where he’s expected to warn that the EU’s proposals on the Northern Ireland Protocol are insufficient. That comes ahead of a new set of proposals that are set to come from the EU tomorrow, with the two sides disagreeing on the extent of border controls required on trade from Northern Ireland with the rest of the UK. Those controls were put in place as part of the Brexit deal to prevent a hard border being put up between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, whilst also preserving the integrity of the EU’s single market. But the UK’s demands for adjustments have been met with opposition by the EU, and speculation has risen that the UK could trigger Article 16, which allows either side to take unilateral safeguard measures, if the protocol’s application “leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade”. On the data front, there wasn’t much data to speak of with the US holiday, but Italy’s industrial production contracted by -0.2% in August, in line with expectations. To the day ahead now, andcentral bank speakers include the Fed’s Vice Chair Clarida,Bostic and Barkin, as well as theECB’s President Lagarde, Makhlouf, Knot, Villeroy, Lane and Elderson. Data highlights from the US include the JOLTS job openings for August, and the NFIB’s small business optimism index for September. In Europe, there’s also UK unemployment for August and the German ZEW Survey for October. Lastly, the IMF will be releasing their latest World Economic Outlook.     Tyler Durden Tue, 10/12/2021 - 07:56.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytOct 12th, 2021

Bitcoin surges to a 5-month high above $57,000, outperforming wider crypto sector

Elsewhere, dogecoin spinoff shiba inu rallied 19% on Monday, gaining 265% from a week ago, while other altcoins saw general downturns. Bitcoin. Getty Images Bitcoin surged to a five-month high on Monday, climbing back above $57,000 to outperform the broader crypto sector. The wider altcoin market is down overall, with ripple, cardano, polkadot, and dogecoin trading lower. Elsewhere, dogecoin spinoff shiba inu rallied 19% on Monday, gaining 265% over the past seven days. Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell. Bitcoin surged to a five-month high on Monday, climbing back above $57,000 to outperform the broader cryptocurrency sector.The digital currency claimed an intraday high of $57,776 before paring gains to trade up 3.48% at $57,331 as of 12:50 p.m. ET Monday. The world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization hit an all-time high of $65,000 in April. Tim Frost, CEO of digital wealth management platform Yield App, couldn't point to one particular reason behind the rally. Possible catalysts include the SEC's recent approval of an exchange-traded fund comprised of stocks with bitcoin exposure, growing institutional adoption for the digital asset, or the daily settlement hitting $31 billion worth of transactions for the first time last week, he said.But bitcoin could be setting up for another short-term dip. "Analysts are predicting a potential cool off, with bitcoin potentially falling to the $40,000 support level before continuing on the upwards trajectory to test the previous all-time high," Frost said in a note. Technical analysis by Adam James, senior analyst at cryptocurrency exchange OKEx, showed bitcoin's four-hour ribbon of exponential moving averages is providing support. But he said the deeply negative Grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium for Grayscale's banner product may hinder the sustainability of this rally.Meanwhile, the wider altcoin market is down overall, with ripple, cardano, polkadot, and dogecoin trading lower. But ether and stellar are both exhibiting modest gains.Also bucking the general downturn is shiba inu, which is trading 19% higher on Monday to $0.00003212. In the last seven days, the dogecoin spinoff has climbed a dizzying 265%.The token was founded in 2020, with its anonymous creator dubbing it a "meme token" and explicitly mimicked dogecoin."Shiba inu is a ridiculous meme coin of a ridiculous meme coin that most investors and indeed average people balk at," Frost told Insider. "The price seems to be on the rise now following a huge dump on Thursday when a lot of whales decided to offload onto the market."Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 11th, 2021

Flirting with Fed Policy Mistake

S&P 500 didn‘t like the underwhelming NFPs, but didn‘t collapse either. Orderly reaction to a bad number powerful enough to postpone Fed‘s Nov taper, to be followed by celebration of continued monetary support, or creeping worries about Fed policy mistake in letting inflation become an even bigger problem than it is already? Not that it‘s […] S&P 500 didn‘t like the underwhelming NFPs, but didn‘t collapse either. Orderly reaction to a bad number powerful enough to postpone Fed‘s Nov taper, to be followed by celebration of continued monetary support, or creeping worries about Fed policy mistake in letting inflation become an even bigger problem than it is already? Not that it‘s not set to become one – even the lazy and slow PCE deflator has scored a jump not seen in decades. if (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') { document.write(''); } .first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important} form.ebook-styles .error, form.ebook-styles #error { color:#d00; } form.ebook-styles .formfields h1, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo, form.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer { display: none; } form.ebook-styles .formfields { font-size: 12px; } form.ebook-styles .formfields p { margin: 4px 0; } Get The Full Walter Schloss Series in PDF Get the entire 10-part series on Walter Schloss in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues. (function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true); Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The doubts are starting to be seen in the pressure on USD – the dollar looks set to swing lower next. Not breaking down, but gradually trending lower. It‘s telling that not even higher yields could power it up over the past week. Tech was relatively resilient, and value didn‘t react much to TLT moves, making me think we‘re in for a brief retracement of the prior downswing in the credit markets. And that includes the soundly beaten HYG – a bit too much, and the corrective move would take VIX even lower to the border of its most recent (and worryingly slowly rising) border. Precious metals should like the inflation spurt, and rising inflation expectations outpacing the nominal yields increase. Real rates (short duration maturities are virtually flat) look to be getting more negative, miners to gold ratio turning, silver to gold ratio rising – good news for the precious metals sector as oil continues its run, and copper presents just one question mark: when it would catch up with other base metals. Cryptos are also set to be doing good when everyone and their brother talks inflation. Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com). S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook S&P 500 formed more of a consolidation than a true reversal candle – the volume wasn‘t there, and prices haven‘t moved much. No need to be outrageously bearish unless prices close Thursday‘s gap. Credit Markets HYG moved down alongside quality debt instruments, but a reprieve wouldn‘t be too surprising here. Gold, Silver and Miners Some life is returning to precious metals, even though it‘s not apparent when looking at gold only. The yellow metal‘s upper knot isn‘t though necessarily bearish, and can be reversed over the nearest week – the key thing is that silver and miners are waking up. Crude Oil Crude oil hesitation didn‘t reappear on Friday, and oil stocks continue moving up – the chart remains bullish as there is no hint of follow through selling to heavy volume days with a slight upper knot. Copper Copper continues underperforming both the CRB Index and other base metals, and its upswing appears a question of shortening time. Is silver sniffing out copper awakening soon? Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and Ethereum arte pushing higher after calm weekend trading, look set to be rising and lifting the open profits up! Summary Stocks are likely to pause and recover from Friday‘s inconclusive downswing, and precious metals together with cryptos remain positioned for an upswing as stagflation growingly permeates everyday vocabulary. Fed response, and whether it would be willy nilly made to taper by rising inflation, or whether it misses the boat even more. Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals. Thank you, Monica Kingsley Stock Trading Signals Gold Trading Signals Oil Trading Signals Copper Trading Signals Bitcoin Trading Signals www.monicakingsley.co mk@monicakingsley.co All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. Updated on Oct 11, 2021, 10:21 am (function() { var sc = document.createElement("script"); sc.type = "text/javascript"; sc.async = true;sc.src = "//mixi.media/data/js/95481.js"; sc.charset = "utf-8";var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(sc, s); }()); window._F20 = window._F20 || []; _F20.push({container: 'F20WidgetContainer', placement: '', count: 3}); _F20.push({finish: true});.....»»

Category: blogSource: valuewalkOct 11th, 2021

Futures Slide As Soaring Oil Nears $85

Futures Slide As Soaring Oil Nears $85 While cash bonds may be closed today for Columbus Day, which may or may not be a holiday - it's difficult to know anymore with SJW snowflakes opinions changing by the day - US equity futures are open and they are sliding as soaring oil prices add to worries over growing stagflation (Goldman and Morgan Stanley both slashed their GDP estimates over the weekend even as they both see rising inflation), fueling concern that a spreading energy crisis could hamper economic recovery (as a reminder, yesterday we had one, two, three posts on stagflation, showing just how freaked out Wall Street suddenly is). Rising raw material costs, labor shortages and other supply chain bottlenecks have raised concerns of elevated prices hammering corporate profits while rising rates are suggesting that a tidal wave of inflation is coming. And while cash bonds may be closed, one can easily extrapolate where they would be trading based on TSY futures which are currently trading at a 1.65% equivalent. But while cash bonds may be closed, the big mover on Monday was oil, with WTI surging nearly 3% and touched a seven-year high as an energy crisis gripping the major economies showed no sign of easing. Meanwhile, Brent rose just shy of $85, rising to the highest since late 2018 when the Fed abruptly reversed tightening course. Over in China, coal futures reached a record as flooding shuttered mines. The surge in oil lifted shares of Chevron Corp, Exxon Mobil Corp and APA Corp between 1.2% and 3% in premarket trading. At the same time, rising rates hit FAAMGs, with Apple, Microsoft and Amazon all falling between 0.6% and 0.8%. The surge above 1.6% for 10-year Treasury yields is intensifying debate among strategists over how to position investor portfolios amid anxiety over whether transitory inflation is transitioning into stagflation. Lucid Group rose 2.2% and Occidental Petroleum climbed 3.1%, leading gains in the U.S. premarket session. Here are some of the biggest movers and stocks to watch today: U.S.-listed Chinese tech stocks soar 2% to 5% in premarket trading, extending their recent rebound. Rally supported by Beijing slapping a smaller-than-expected fine on food delivery giant Meituan and last week’s news that U.S. President Joe Biden was planning to meet with Xi Jinping before the end of the year. Alibaba (BABA US +5%) leads gains, while JD.com (JD US) and Baidu (BIDU US) rise 2% apiece Watch U.S. energy stocks as oil surges past $80 a barrel as the global power crunch rattled a market in which OPEC+ has only been restoring output at a modest pace. Exxon Mobil (XOM US +1.1%), Chevron (CVX US +1%) and Occidental (OXY US +3.1%) among top risers in premarket trading. Robinhood (HOOD US) dropped 2%; the company was under pressure in U.S. premarket trading as a looming share sale by early investors and a toughening regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies are adding to the headwinds in the stock market for the darling of the U.S. retail trading mania. ChemoCentryx (CCXI US) up 2% in U.S. premarket trading, adding to Friday’s massive gains after the drug developer won U.S. approval for Tavneos as a treatment for a rare autoimmune disorder Cloudflare (NET US) slides 1.8% in U.S. premarket trading after Piper Sandler downgraded stock to neutral Akerna Corp. (KERN US) gained in Friday postmarket trading after Matthew Ryan Kane, a board member, bought $346,032 of shares, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission. “We see rising risks to global growth and evidence of more persistent inflation, which makes us more cautious on the outlook for global markets overall,” Salman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, wrote in a note to clients. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.2%, led by declines in travel and property firms. Miners and energy stocks were the two strongest-performing sectors in Europe on Monday on rising prices for iron ore and oil. The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources Index climbed as much as 2.4%, while the Energy Index gains as much as 1.5% to the highest since Feb. 24, 2020. European banking stocks also advanced on Monday, following four weeks of gains, and traded about 1.3% below pre-pandemic high. The sector has gained 36% ytd, is the best performer among 20 European sectors in 2021. Up 0.7% today, outperforming a slightly weaker broader Stoxx 600 Index and as investors tilt toward cyclical sectors. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks jumped, buoyed by Hong Kong-listed technology shares including Meituan, which was consigned a lower-than-expected regulatory fine. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.9%, driven by the consumer-discretionary and communication sectors. Alibaba and Meituan were the top contributors to the gauge, each surging about 8% in the first trading in Hong Kong after the food-delivery giant was handed a $533 million fine for violating anti-monopolistic practices.  The result of the investigation into Meituan is “a relief and likely to provide closure to the share price overhang,” Citigroup analysts wrote in a note Friday, when the penalty was announced.  Hong Kong’s stock gauge was among the top performing in the region. Japan’s benchmarks also climbed as the yen weakened to an almost three-year low against the dollar and new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he’s not considering changes to the country’s capital-gains tax at present. Improved sentiment in China is providing much-needed support to Asian equities, which declined for four straight weeks amid uncertainty circling global markets. Power shortages in China and India, supply-chain woes, inflation risks and rising bond yields are all on the radar as the earnings season kicks off. “We are still in a market that is very, very concerned about the growth outlook,” said Kyle Rodda, market analyst at IG Markets. These sort of rallies that appear almost inexplicable are “symptomatic of the market still trying to piece together all pieces of the puzzle,” he added. Australia The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.3% to close at 7,299.80, with most subgauges taking a hit. Miners advanced, posting gains for a third session, offsetting losses in healthcare and consumer discretionary stocks.  Star Entertainment was the worst performer after a report saying the company had enabled suspected money laundering, organized crime and fraud at its Australian casinos for years. Fortescue surged after the company said it plans to build a green energy factory to rival China.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index dropped 0.5% to 13,019.37. In FX, the pound crept higher to touch an almost 2-week high versus the dollar and the Gilt curve shifted higher, led by the front-end, after the Bank of England’s Michael Saunders, one of the most hawkish members of the Monetary Policy Committee, suggested in remarks published Saturday that investors were right to bring forward bets on rate hikes. Hours earlier, Governor Andrew Bailey warned of a potentially “very damaging” period of inflation unless policy makers take action. Australia’s dollar led gains among G-10 currencies on the back of increases in oil, natural gas and iron ore prices and as Sydney emerges from a 15- week lockdown on Monday. Iron ore futures extended gains as improved rebar margins at Chinese steel mills buoyed demand prospects. The yen dropped against the dollar, with analysts forecasting more weakness ahead as the nation’s yield differentials widen. As noted above, treasury futures slumped in U.S. trading Monday, with the cash market closed for Columbus Day; they implied a yield of 1.65% on the 10Y. 10-year note futures price is down 8+/32, a price change equivalent to a yield increase of about 3bp. Benchmark 10-year yield ended Friday at 1.615%, its highest closing level since June, as investors focused on the inflationary aspects in mixed September employment data. China's10-year government bond futures declined to a three-month low while the yuan advanced as the central bank’s latest liquidity draining weakened expectations of fresh monetary policy easing. Futures contracts on 10-year notes fall 0.4% to 99.14, the lowest level since July 12. It dropped 0.4% on Friday. 10-year sovereign bond yields rose 5bps, the biggest gains in two months, to 2.96%. Looking ahead, upcoming reports on third-quarter company profits which start this week are seen as the next potential pressure point in a market already under siege from slowing global growth, sticky inflation and tighter monetary policies. Global earnings revisions are sliding - an omen for U.S. stocks that have taken their cue from rising earnings estimates all year. “The coming earnings’ season in the U.S. will be heavily scrutinized for pricing power, margins and clues on the shortage situation, as well as wage pressures,” according to Geraldine Sundstrom, a portfolio manager at  Pacific Investment Management Co. in London. “Already a number of large multinationals have issued warnings about production cuts and downgraded their Q3 outlook due to supply chain and labor shortages.” Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,371.25 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 456.41 German 10Y yield up 1.5 bps to -0.135% Euro little changed at $1.1568 MXAP up 0.8% to 196.45 MXAPJ up 0.7% to 642.13 Nikkei up 1.6% to 28,498.20 Topix up 1.8% to 1,996.58 Hang Seng Index up 2.0% to 25,325.09 Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,591.71 Sensex up 0.5% to 60,358.30 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,299.79 Kospi down 0.1% to 2,956.30 Brent Futures up 1.9% to $83.98/bbl Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,755.02 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.11% to 94.17 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg The U.S. labor market will see “ups and downs” as the pandemic lingers, but it’s premature to judge that the recovery is in peril, said San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she expects Congress to take action soon to bring the U.S. into line with a global minimum tax agreed on last week by 136 countries Chinese builders are looking to payment extensions or debt exchanges to avoid default on imminent bond obligations as liquidity conditions tighten for the real estate sector Austria will get a new chancellor, though the career diplomat stepping into Sebastian Kurz’s shoes is a close ally of the departing conservative leader who resigned over a corruption scandal Just because pandemic inflation is transitory doesn’t mean it’s going away anytime soon. That’s the awkward conclusion that policy makers and investors are arriving at, as prices accelerate all over the world. European natural gas has climbed 25% in two weeks, and oil topped $80 for the first time since 2014. Fertilizers hit a record on Friday, which means food prices -- already at a 10- year peak -- will likely rise even higher A more detailed summary of overnight news from Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly positive but ended the day somewhat mixed after having shrugged off the early weakness stemming from last Friday’s lacklustre performance stateside and disappointing NFP jobs data. Note, markets in Taiwan and South Korea were closed. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was the laggard with underperformance in tech, consumer stocks and defensives overshadowing the gains in commodities and with Star Entertainment the worst hit with losses of more than 20% after media outlets alleged that it enabled suspected money laundering, organised crime, fraud and foreign interference which the Co. said were misleading reports. However, downside for the index was limited as New South Wales businesses reopened from the lockdown that lasted for over three months. Nikkei 225 (+1.6%) reversed opening losses as exporters cheered a weaker currency and with the government mulling over JPY 100bln financial support for chip factory construction. Hang Seng (+2.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (Unch) were both positive following talks between China's Vice Premier Liu He and USTR Tai on Saturday in which China was said to be negotiating for a cancellation of tariffs and sanctions. The advances in Hong Kong were led by tech stocks including Meituan despite the Co. being fined CNY 3.4bln by China’s market regulator for monopolistic behaviour, as the amount was seen to be a slap on the wrist, while the gains in the mainland were only mild as participants also reflected on the substantial liquidity drains by the PBoC totalling a net CNY 510bln since Saturday. Finally, 10yr JGBs were pressured amid the gains in Japanese stocks and lack of BoJ purchases in the market, while price action was also not helped by the continued weakness in T-note futures amid the semi-holiday conditions in US for Columbus Day in which the NYSE and the Nasdaq will open but bonds trading will remain shut. Top Asian News Australian IPOs Heading for Biggest Haul Since 2014: ECM Watch Syngenta’s Shanghai IPO Proposal Suspended For Earnings Update China Junk-Rated Dollar Bond Rout Deepens Amid Builder Worries China’s 10-Year Bond Yield Jumps By The Most Since August Bourses in Europe are mostly but modestly lower (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%, Stoxx 600 -0.2%) whilst the FTSE 100 (+0.2%) bucks the trend, owing to firm performances in its heavyweight sectors. US equity futures meanwhile trade within tight ranges with broad-based losses of some 0.3-0.4%. Fresh fundamental catalysts have remained light, although inflation and stagflation remain on traders' minds heading into this week's US and Chinese inflation metrics and against the backdrop of rising energy prices. Thus, the sector configuration sees Basic Resources, Oil & Gas and Banks at the top of the bunch, whilst the downside sees Travel & Leisure, Real Estate and Retail, with no overarching theme to be derived. Basic Resources is the marked outperformer as base metals are bolstered in what seems to be a function of the coal shortage in Asia, with iron ore contracts also surging overnight and copper following suit, in turn boosting the likes of Rio Tino (+3.2%), Antofagasta (+3.1%), Glencore (+3.1%), BHP (+2.8%). The top of the Stoxx 600 is dominated by metal names. In terms of individual movers, Carrefour (-2.2%) is softer after sources stated that exploratory talks over a Carrefour-Auchan tie-up ended due to the complexity of the deal. Evotec (+0.7%) holds onto gains as it seeks a Nasdaq listing. Roche (+0.6%) and Morphosys (+3.7%) underpin the health sector after the Cos received Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the US FDA for gantenerumab for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. Top European News BOE Officials Double Down on Signals of Imminent Rate Hike Brexit Clash on Northern Ireland Means Headaches for Johnson Asos CEO Beighton Steps Down as Sales Growth Slows Adler Shares Flounder After Asset Disposal Plan, Past M&A Report In FX, the Aussie has secured a considerably firmer grip of the 0.7300 handle vs its US rival as COVID-19 restrictions are relaxed in NSW and base metals tread water after a mostly positive APAC equity session overnight. However, Aud/Usd is also firmer on the back of ongoing Greenback weakness and long liquidation from what some are calling ‘stretched’ levels of IMM positioning going in to Friday’s NFP release, while the Aud/Nzd cross has rebounded further above 1.0550 in wake of a rise in NZ virus cases that has prompted the PM to keep Auckland on level 3 alert for another week pending review. Hence, Nzd/Usd is capped around 0.6950 and continues to lag on the unwinding of Kiwi longs built up in advance of last week’s universally anticipated 25 bp RBNZ hike. Back to the Buck, but looking at the index in relation to where it was before and after the latest BLS report, 94.000 is providing some underlying support on Columbus Day that is not a full US market holiday, but will see cash Treasuries remain closed. Moreover, the DXY is gleaning momentum within a narrow 94.028-214 range via marked Yen underperformance amidst the latest rout in bonds and more pronounced technical impulses as Usd/Jpy extends beyond 112.50 and sets yet another 2021 peak around 112.95. GBP - Sterling is taking up post-payrolls Dollar slack as well, but firmer in its own right too as comments from BoE Governor Bailey and MPC member Saunders add to the growing expectation that rate hikes may be delivered sooner than had been expected before the former revealed that policy-setters were evenly divided at 4-4 in August on the subject of minimum criteria being achieved for tightening. Cable is hovering under 1.3650 and Eur/Gbp is sub-0.8500 in response, with the latter not really fazed by the UK-EU rift on NI protocol. CAD/NOK - The Loonie remains firm against its US peer after the stellar Canadian jobs data and Usd/Cad continues to probe support/bids at 1.2450 against the backdrop of strength in oil prices that is also keeping the Norwegian Krona afloat and Eur/Nok eyeing deeper sub-10.0000 lows irrespective of marginally mixed vs consensus inflation metrics. CHF/EUR/SEK - All rather rangy, aimless and looking for inspiration or clearer direction as the Franc straddles 0.9275 vs the Greenback, but remains firmer against the Euro above 1.0750 following only a faint rise in Swiss domestic bank sight deposits. Meanwhile, the Euro is pivoting 1.1575 vs the Buck and looks hemmed in by decent option expiry interest just outside the range given.1 bn rolling off between 1.1540-50 and 1.6 bn from 1.1590-1.1600 at the NY cut. Elsewhere, the Swedish Crown is slipping on risk-off grounds towards 10.1250 having tested resistance circa 10.1000. In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures continue the upward trajectory seen during the APAC session, with the complex underpinned heading into the winter period and against the backdrop of higher gas prices. The gains have been more pronounced in the US counterpart vs the global benchmark with no clear catalysts behind the outperformance, although this may be a continuation of the unwind seen after reports suggested a release of the US SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) is unlikely. For context, reports of such a release last week took the WTI-Brent arb to almost USD 4.2/bbl vs USD 2.7/bbl at the time of writing. Furthermore, there have also been reports of lower US production under President Biden's "build back better" initiative, which puts more weight on renewable energy, with some energy analysts also suggesting that OPEC+ sees less of a threat from a "shale boom" as a result. Back to price action, WTI has been in the limelight after topping the USD 80/bbl overnight and extending gains to levels north of USD 81.50/bbl (vs low 79.55/bbl), whilst the Brent Dec contract topped USD 84.00/bbl (vs low USD 82.50/bbl). In terms of other news flow, sources suggested the fire at Lebanon's Zahrani fuel tank has been put out after the energy minister suggested the fire was contained – the cause of the fire is not yet known. Gas prices also remain elevated with UK nat gas futures relatively flat on the day but still north of GBP 2/Thm vs GBP 1/Thm mid-August and vs GBP 4/Thm last week, whilst the Qatari Energy Minister said he is unhappy about gas prices being high amid negative follow-through to customers. Over to metals, spot gold and silver are somewhat lacklustre, but with magnitudes of price action contained, with the former meandering just north of USD 1,750/oz and the latter above USD 22.50/oz heading into this week's key risk events. Overnight, iron ore futures were bolstered some 10% in Dalian and Singapore Exchanges amid fears of coking coal supply shortages - coking coal is an essential input to produce iron and steel. Traders should also be cognizant of the Chinese metrics released this week as another elevated PPI metric could see the release of more state reserves, as had been the case over the recent months. Using the Caixin PMIs as a proxy for the release, the PMI suggested sharp increases in both input costs and output prices – largely owed to supply chain delays, with the "rate of inflation was the quickest seen for four months, amid reports of greater energy and raw material costs. This, in turn, led to a solid increase in prices charged". The measure for output prices its highest in three months, whilst "the pressure of rising costs was partly transmitted downstream to consumers, as the demand was not weak." US Event Calendar Nothing major scheduled DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A reminder that it’s Columbus Day today where US bond markets are closed. Equity markets are open but expect it to be quiet. Ahead of this, this morning we have published our latest monthly survey results covering over 600 global market participants. See here for more. For the first time since June, the biggest perceived risk to markets is now higher yields and inflation, whilst direct Covid-19 risks are out of the top 3 for the first time. A further equity correction before YE remains the consensus now. 71% expect at least another 5% off equities at some point before YE (68% correctly suggested that last month). A very overwhelming 84% thought the next 25bps move in 10yr US Treasury yields would be up. Of some additional interest is that the definition of stagflation is varied but that the majority think it’s a high or very high risk for the next 12 months. The extreme of this view surprised me. While I’ve long thought the market has underestimated the inflation risks I would still say there is enough of a growth cushion for 2022. However it’s clear the risks have built. Anyway, lots more in the survey. Thanks for filling it in and see the results for details. The week ahead will centre around the US CPI release on Wednesday but it might be a touch backward looking given that energy has spiked more recently and that used car prices are again on the march after a late summer fall that will likely be captured in this week’s release. Elsewhere, we’ve got a potentially more challenging US earnings season than that seen over the last year will commence with the big financials from Wednesday. In addition minutes from the last FOMC will give clues to the latest taper thinking on Wednesday as well. The IMF/World Bank meetings will generate plenty of headlines this week with their latest world outlook update tomorrow the highlight. The best of the rest data wise consists of JOLTS (Tuesday),which we think is a better labour market indicator than payrolls albeit a month behind, US PPI (Thursday) which will give a scale of building pipeline price pressures, US retail sales and UoM consumer sentiment (Friday), and China’s CPI and PPI (Thursday). With all that to look forward to, markets have started the week on a strong note, with equity indices including the Hang Seng (+2.02%), Nikkei (+1.57%), CSI (+0.32%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.32%) all moving higher, whilst the Kospi (-0.11%) has seen a slight decline. Japanese stocks have been buoyed by comments from new PM Kishida over the weekend that he isn’t currently considering changes to the country’s capital-gains tax. That comes with just 20 days remaining until the country’s general election. Separately in China, the country’s energy woes continue with 60 of 682 coal mines closed in the Shanxi province due to heavy floods, with Chinese coal futures up +8.00% this morning. And the property market issues are continuing to persist, with a new Chinese developer Modern Land seeking a 3 month extension to a $250 million dollar bond due to mature on October 25. By the end of last week, a Bloomberg index of Chinese junk-rated dollar bonds had seen yields climb to a decade-high above 17%, so clearly one to still look out for. Unlike in Asia, equity futures are pointing lower in the US and Europe this morning, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.21%. In terms of the main highlight it’s clearly US CPI mid-week. Given my views that inflation risks have been massively understated this year I’ve been saying for months that these reports have potentially been the most important monthly data we have seen for years. But since they mostly come and go with a “meh… mostly transitory” and a relative whimper, I’ve clearly been wrong to over hype them. So ignore me when I say that this month’s report might not be that interesting. With energy soaring over the last month and signs of inflation pressures continuing to build elsewhere then I’m not sure we can read too much into this month’s figures. Take used cars. Given the 2-3 month lag between actual prices and their CPI impact, this month will more than likely reflect a softening of prices in the summer. However September saw prices rise +5.4% so this will probably show up towards the end of the year along with the recent rise in energy costs. Our economists expect a +0.41% headline (vs. +0.27% previously) and +0.27% core (vs. +0.10%) mom rate. This is a bit above consensus and would take the yoy rate to 5.4% (up a tenth) and 4.1% (unch) respectively. Speaking of inflationary pressures, this morning has seen energy prices take a further leg higher, with WTI oil (+1.90%) moving back above $80/bbl for the first time since late 2014, whilst Brent crude (+1.42%) has moved above $83/bbl. European natural gas prices will continue to be an important one to follow amidst the astonishing price surge there, but the declines at the end of last week mean prices finished the week down by more than -45% since their intraday peak on Wednesday, before the comments from Russian President Putin that brought down prices. The rest of the day-by-day calendar is at the end as usual but although it’s a second tier release normally, tomorrow’s JOLTS will be interesting in as far as it might confirm that the main labour problems in August were a lack of supply rather than demand. The report’s full value is reduced by it being a number of weeks out of date but there’s a reasonable argument for saying that this is a better gauge of the state of the labour market than the payroll release. We go through Friday’s mixed report at the end when looking back at last week. Outside of data, it’s that time again as earnings season gets going, with a number of US financials kicking things off from mid-week. In terms of the highlights, we’ll hear from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock and Delta Air Lines on Wednesday. Then on Thursday, we’ll get UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, US Bancorp and Walgreens Boots Alliance. Finally on Friday, we’ll hear from Charles Schwab and Goldman Sachs. For more info on the upcoming earnings season, you can read DB’s equity strategists Q3 S&P 500 preview here. Back to markets, it was interesting over the weekend that the BoE’s Saunders chose to endorse market expectation of an earlier start to the hiking cycle in the UK rather than push back against it. He is on the more hawkish end of the spectrum but it was an important statement. Earlier, Governor Bailey suggested that there could potentially be a very damaging period of higher inflation ahead if policy makers didn’t react. Interestingly our survey showed that the market thinks the BoE is likely to make a policy error by being too hawkish so a battle seems likely to commence over policy here in the UK over the coming weeks and months. The November meeting appears live. Those comments have helped to support the pound this morning, which is up by +0.16% against the US Dollar. Looking back to last week now, risk sentiment was supported in the first full week of Q4 by easing European energy prices and a cease fire on the debt ceiling that avoided disaster and bought Washington lawmakers 8 weeks to find a more permanent solution. Global equity indices thus gained on the week: the S&P 500 picked up +0.79%, with a slight -0.19% pullback on Friday, and European equities kept pace with the STOXX 600 rallying +0.97% (-0.28% on Friday). Cyclical stocks led the way on both sides of the Atlantic; energy stocks were among the best performers whist financials benefitted from higher yields and a steeper curve. Speaking of which, US 10yr Treasury yields gained a punchy +14.1bps to close the week at 1.603%, their highest levels since early June. The benchmark gradually increased 3.0bps after Friday’s employment data. Inflation compensation continued to drive rate increases, as US 10yr breakevens gained +13.5 bps to finish the week at 2.515%. We need to go back to May to find higher levels. The sovereign yield increases were global in nature, with German bunds gaining +7.3bps and UK gilts +15.6bps higher. German 10yr breakevens gained +3.9bps while UK breakevens were +12.0bps higher. US nonfarm payrolls increased +194k in September, well below consensus expectations of a +500k gain, though private payrolls increased +317k and net two month revisions were up +169k. The unemployment rate ticked down to a post-pandemic low of 4.8% on the back of a declining labour force participation rate. Average hourly earnings were robust, increasing +0.6% mom (+0.4% expected). Taken in concert, the print likely cleared the (admittedly low) bar to enable the FOMC to announce tapering at the November meeting, whilst also feeding the creeping stagflation narrative (see survey results). Elsewhere, building on a preliminary July deal, the OECD said 136 nations have signed up to implement a 15% minimum global tax rate to address adequate taxation of multinational tech firms. As part of the deal, countries agreed not to impose any additional digital services taxes.       Tyler Durden Mon, 10/11/2021 - 08:12.....»»

Category: blogSource: zerohedgeOct 11th, 2021

Robinhood Insiders Speed Up Stock Sales Days After New Risk Disclosures Relating To Crypto And Payment For Order Flow

Robinhood Insiders Speed Up Stock Sales Days After New Risk Disclosures Relating To Crypto And Payment For Order Flow Robinhood fell about 2% after hours on Friday after the company announced it was planning to speed up a previously announced stock sale. Andreessen Horowitz, 9Yards Capital and New Enterprise Associates are among the selling shareholders, who may get an opportunity to offload their shares as early as Wednesday, according to Bloomberg, citing a company filing. Robinhood fell 28% when the potential sales were first announced back at the beginning of August.  Bloomberg explained: "The company filed a second amendment to a Sept. 1 filing, for the potential resale of shares by holders and an acceleration request asking the SEC to declare the filing effective at 4:30 p.m. ET on Oct. 13." At the same time, Robinhood also disclosed in a new filing Thursday night that "regulatory intervention in cryptocurrency trading" and "a payment arrangement between brokerages and trading firms" were additional risks the company faced to its business.  The company made the statements in an amended filing related to the stock sale, Bloomberg reported. “The regulatory landscape involving cryptocurrencies is constantly evolving and is subject to change,” the company wrote.  It also made note of the fact that crypto trading accounted for 41% of its revenue in the second quarter.  Robinhood had also previously warned about its Q3 guidance, something Zero Hedge contributor Quoth the Raven recently wrote about while highlighting risks in owning the name.  "Robinhood’s valuation is simply a bubble, in my opinion, which makes it the short end of this trade," he wrote. "The company moved as high as $52 per share at one point, all on an orchestrated gamma squeeze by the folks over at Wallstreetbets. This took an already overvalued name at the time of its IPO and stretched its valuation into stratospheric territory." He continued: "But think back: Robinhood had trouble finding a bid at its $37/share valuation when it went public and, since then, has done nothing but reported Q2 earnings that included a warning about a slowdown in trading activity, either setting the stage for a rougher Q3 or sandbagging." The article also noted the concentration on crypto asset risk, stating: "The company’s revenue stream is becoming increasingly dependent on its crypto trading business at a time when U.S. regulators have admitted they won’t ban bitcoin, but still have a long way to go in setting rules for the new asset class." Finally, it pointed out the payment for order flow model as potentially being at risk, per SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who said banning the practice was "on the table" in late August. On top of that, at the end of September, we wrote a comprehensive article asking whether or not the President of Robinhood dumped all of his AMC stock right before the brokerage suspended trading in the name. “I sold my AMC today. FYI  –  tomorrow morning we are moving GME to 100% - so you are aware,” Robinhood's President and COO, Jim Swartwout allegedly said in an internal chat.  Perhaps Robinhood's existing investors that are looking to hit the exits early have become far too aware of all of these risks... Tyler Durden Sun, 10/10/2021 - 12:00.....»»

Category: personnelSource: nytOct 10th, 2021

Affirm (AFRM) Shares Gain on Its Partnership With Target

Affirm's (AFRM) shares surge after Target picks it up for BNPL services. Shares of Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRM rose following its tie-up with retailer Target Corporation (TGT). The partnership will allow customers shopping at the Target stores to avail the company’s BNPL services.The news cheered investors and added credence to this buy now pay later company’s business model. The partnership with the retailer will firm up Affirm’s position in the burgeoning and highly competitive BNPL space. Shares of the company rallied 22% after the news of partnership with Target surfaced.Recently, Affirm tied up with the e-commerce leader Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) whereby the former will provide its instalment payments services to the latter on purchases valued at $50 or more.The BNPL is an exploding space and even though the installment payments facility has been in existence since a long time, it was earlier presented in a traditional manner, carrying an interest, late payment and other additional charges. The BNPL trend got an impetus amid trust issues in legacy financial institutions.The new-age customers, mainly Gen Z and the millennials, look for payment options that are easy, transparent, interest-free and dispersed via a digital medium and mobile phones. And the BNPL fits the bill perfectly here.The BNPL market is expanding rapidly. According to Worldpay’s 2020 Global Payments report, “buy now pay later” is the fastest growing e-commerce payment method, globally. In North America, the BNPL market share is expected to triple to 3% of the e-commerce payments market by 2023.In other regions, such as EMEA, “buy now pay later” already accounts for almost 6% of the e-commerce payment market and is expected to grow to almost 10% by 2023.This vast market opportunity is enticing players and stiffening competition. The same is underscored by the recent deal wins. The payments company PayPal Holdings, Inc. PYPL is also exploring the sector. Another company Square, Inc. SQ recently announced a $29-billion acquisition of the Australian firm Afterpay, a rival of Affirm. The other major company in the BNPL space is the Swedish startup named Klarna.The deal with Amazon is aptly timed as Affirm wanted a strong foothold amid its rivals, which are expanding their market shares, as well as a few other companies that are also participating in the installment payment program. For instance, last year, American Express Co. AXP introduced a BNPL option for its card holders with the name Pay It Plan It.Affirm currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and is an emerging company, which has the potential to generate strong returns for its investors over the long haul.You can see  the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Ever since it started trading in January this year, the stock has gained 42.3% compared with its industry's growth of 115.8%. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Infrastructure Stock Boom to Sweep America A massive push to rebuild the crumbling U.S. infrastructure will soon be underway. It’s bipartisan, urgent, and inevitable. Trillions will be spent. Fortunes will be made. The only question is “Will you get into the right stocks early when their growth potential is greatest?” Zacks has released a Special Report to help you do just that, and today it’s free. Discover 7 special companies that look to gain the most from construction and repair to roads, bridges, and buildings, plus cargo hauling and energy transformation on an almost unimaginable scale.Download FREE: How to Profit from Trillions on Spending for Infrastructure >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Free Stock Analysis Report Target Corporation (TGT): Free Stock Analysis Report American Express Company (AXP): Free Stock Analysis Report PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL): Free Stock Analysis Report Square, Inc. (SQ): Free Stock Analysis Report Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research.....»»

Category: topSource: zacksOct 8th, 2021

Futures Drift Before Taper-Triggering Jobs Report

Futures Drift Before Taper-Triggering Jobs Report US equity-index drifted in a tight range overnight, in a tight range before key jobs data that could provide clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy. As noted in our preview, unless the jobs report is a disaster, it will virtually assure the Fed launches tapering in one month. Markets drifted higher on Thursday after the Senate averted the risk of an immediate default, pushing global stocks on course for their best week since early September, but a late day selloff wiped away most gains and closed spoos below the critical 4400 level. At 07:30 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 35 points, or 0.10%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 5.00 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 10.75 points, or 0.07%. Treasury Yields were 1 point higher after earlier tagging 1.60%, the highest since June. The dollar was flat while Brent topped $83 before paring gains. Bitcoin traded above $55,000. Uncertainty over the debt ceiling negotiations and a run-up in U.S. Treasury yields over elevated inflation were major concerns among investors earlier this week, injecting volatility in equity markets this week. High-growth FAAMG stocks slipped in premarket trading following sharp gains in previous session. Energy firms including Chevron Corp and Exxon Mobil gained about 0.8% tracking crude prices, while major U.S. lenders also edged up as the benchmark 10-year yield hit its highest level since June 4. Here are some of the biggest movers and stocks to watch today: Tesla (TSLA US) shares in focus after Elon Musk says a global shortage of chips and ships is the only thing standing in the way of the company maintaining sales growth in excess of 50% Sundial Growers (SNDL US) shares rise as much as 19% in U.S. premarket after the Canadian cannabis producer said it will buy liquor and pot retailer Alcanna for $276m in stock Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO US) plunges 36% in U.S. premarket trading after an early-stage study of its cell therapy was put on hold by U.S. regulators Prelude Therapeutics (PRLD US) fell in U.S. premarket trading, adding to Thursday’s 40% plunge on early- stage data for the company’s experimental cancer treatments that Barclays says came in below expectations Vaxart (VXRT US) rises 8% in U.S. premarket trading after its oral tablet vaccine candidate cut transmission of Covid-19 in animals, according to data from a study led by Duke University Faraday Future (FFIE US) slides 4% in U.S. premarket trading after J Capital says it is short on the stock. The short-seller says they don’t think the company “will ever sell a car” Codiak Biosciences (CDAK US) shares fell 6% in Thursday postmarket trading after disclosing that Sarepta Therapeutics is terminating a research license and option agreement Agile Therapeutics (AGRX US) tumbled Thursday postmarket after the women’s health-care company said that it intends to offer and sell shares of its common stock, as well as warrants to purchase shares of its common stock, in an underwritten public offering Looking to today's main event, economists expect September hiring to have surged by 500,000 jobs as the summer wave of COVID-19 infections began to subside, and as millions of Americans no longer receive jobless benefits, positioning the Fed to start scaling back its monthly bond buying.  “All roads lead to non-farm payrolls data which will decide, in the market’s minds, whether the start of the Fed taper is a done deal for December,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA. “I do not believe that markets have priced in the Fed taper and its implications to any large degree yet. Even a weak number probably only delays the inevitable for another month.” Even “reasonably soft” payrolls and unemployment figures wouldn’t be enough to change the minds of its officials, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. “Only a shockingly low figure could do that,” she said. “The persistent rise in oil prices can only continue boosting inflation fears and the central bank hawks, limiting the upside potential in case of a further recovery in stocks.” “As soon as you start thinking about tapering it’s really hard to not then think about what that means for the Fed funds rate and when that might start to increase,” Kim Mundy, currency strategist and international economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, said on Bloomberg Television. “We do see scope that markets can start to price in a more aggressive Fed funds rate hike cycle.” In Europe, tech companies led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index down 0.2%, with energy stocks and carmakers being the only industry groups with meaningful gains. Chip stocks fell, especially Apple suppliers, following a profit warning from Asian peer and fellow supplier AAC Technologies. On the other end, European travel stocks rose after U.K. confirmed the travel “red list” will be cut to just seven countries; British Airways parent IAG and TUI led the advances. Here are some of the biggest European movers today: Daimler shares gains as much as 3.2%, outperforming peers, after UBS upgrades stock to buy from neutral, calling it an earnings momentum story that stands to gain from strong demand, electrification trends and its future focus on passenger cars. Adler shares rise as much as 13% after shareholder Aggregate sells a call option to Vonovia for a 13.3% stake in the German real estate investment firm at a strike price of EU14 per share. Cewe Stiftung shares jump as much as 4.2%, their best day in over three months, after the photography services firm gets a new buy rating at Hauck & Aufhaeuser. Weir shares fall as much as 6.3%, to the lowest since Nov. 13, after the U.K. machinery maker announced that a ransomware attack will affect full-year profitability; Jefferies says it’s unlikely that guidance beyond that will be revised. Zur Rose slumps as much as 9.2% after Berenberg downgrades the Swiss online pharmacy to hold from buy, citing the expected negative impact from a delay in the implementation of mandatory e-prescriptions in Germany. Czech digital-payments provider Eurowag shares slide as much as 10% as it starts trading in London, after pricing its IPO below an initial range and making its debut a day later than planned. Asian stocks rose for a second day as China’s market reopened higher and the U.S. Senate approved a short-term increase in the debt ceiling. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 1% in a rally led by consumer discretionary shares. Alibaba and Tencent were among the biggest contributors to the gauge’s climb. Shares in mainland China surged more than 1% as investors returned from the Golden Week holiday. Chinese property shares fell after a report that more than 90% of China’s top 100 property developers’ sales declined in September by an average of 36% from the same period last year, while investor concerns about developers’ liquidity rose after Fantasia bonds were suspended from trading. In mainland: CSI 300 Real Estate Index drops as much as 2%, Seazen Holdings falls as much as 5%, Poly Developments -4%. Asia’s stock benchmark is slightly down for the week, as rising bond yields weighed on tech-heavy indexes in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. The gauge is down more than 1% this month amid an energy shortage in China and India.  “Markets may not want to commit directionally” given that we have non-farm payrolls data on the docket, making a follow-through of today’s rally suspect, said Ilya Spivak, the head of Greater Asia at DailyFX. Traders are expecting today’s U.S. employment data to provide clues on the direction of the world’s largest economy. On Thursday, the U.S. averted what would have been its first default on a debt payment. Most major benchmarks in Asia climbed, led by Japan, Indonesia and Australia. India’s central bank kept its lending rates at a record low at a policy meeting today. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.9% to close at 7,320.10. All industry groups edged higher. The benchmark rose 1.9% for the week, the biggest weekly gain since early August. Miners led the charge, having the best week since July, banks the best since the start of March. EML Payments tumbled after an update on its Ireland subsidiary from the country’s central bank. Chalice Mining continued its rebound, finishing the session the strongest performer in the mining subgauge.  There is a risk of excessive borrowing due to low interest rates and rising house prices, Reserve Bank of Australia said in its semiannual Financial Stability Review released Friday. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.1% to 13,086.60 In rates, Treasury futures remained under pressure after paring declines that pushed 10-year yield as high as 1.5995% during European morning, highest since June 4; the 1.60% zone is thought to have potential to spur next wave of convexity hedging. U.K. 10-year is higher by 4bp, German by 2.3bp - gilts underperformed, weighing on Treasuries as money markets continue to bring forward BOE rate-hike expectations. During U.S. session, September jobs report may seal case for Fed taper announcement in November.  In FX, the greenback traded in a narrow range versus G10 peers while 10-year Treasury yields approached 1.6%, outperforming Bunds.  Gilt yields rose 5-6bps across the curve; demand for downside protection in the pound eases this week as the U.K. currency moves off cycle lows amid money markets repricing. U.K. wage growth rose at its strongest pace on record in a survey of job recruiters, indicating strains from a shortage of workers are persisting. Turkish lira initially weakens above 8.96/USD before recouping half of its losses In commodities, oil extended a rebound, on track for a seventh weekly gain. Crude futures pushed to the best levels for the week. WTI rises 1.5% near $79.50, Brent pops back on to a $83-handle. Spot gold trades a $5 range near $1,757/oz. Base metals are mostly positive, with LME nickel gaining over 3.5%. Looking at the day ahead, the highlight will be the aforementioned September jobs report. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Panetta. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,389.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 457.18 MXAP up 0.4% to 194.72 MXAPJ up 0.2% to 636.80 Nikkei up 1.3% to 28,048.94 Topix up 1.1% to 1,961.85 Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 24,837.85 Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,592.17 Sensex up 0.7% to 60,070.61 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 7,320.09 Kospi down 0.1% to 2,956.30 Brent Futures up 1.4% to $83.09/bbl Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,756.25 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.29 German 10Y yield up +3.4 bps to -0.151% Euro little changed at $1.1549 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Global talks to reshape the corporate tax landscape are set to resume on Friday after Ireland’s decision to adhere to the world consensus on a minimum rate removed one hurdle to an agreement that still hangs in the balance Germany’s Social Democrats hailed a positive start in their effort to form a government after their first meeting with the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats A U.S. nuclear-powered attack submarine struck an object while submerged in international waters in the Indo- Pacific region last week, the Navy said, adding that no life- threatening injuries were reported China drained the most short- term liquidity from the banking system in a year on a net basis as it reduced support after a week-long holiday. Government bond futures slid by the most since August China’s central bank will continue to push for the reform of its benchmark loan rate and make deposit rates more market-based, according to a senior official India’s central bank surprised markets by suspending its version of quantitative easing, signaling the start of tapering pandemic-era stimulus measures as an economic recovery takes hold U.K. government bond yields have climbed to levels last seen before the Brexit referendum in 2016 relative to German peers, as traders brace for inflation in Britain over the next decade to far outpace the rate in Europe’s largest economy A detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly higher as the region conformed to the global upbeat mood after the agreement in Washington to raise the debt ceiling which the Senate approved, with the overnight bourses also invigorated by the return of China and strong Caixin PMI data. The ASX 200 (+0.9%) was led higher by strength in mining names with underlying commodity prices boosted as Chinese buyers flocked back to market which helped the ASX disregard a record increase in daily COVID-19 cases in Victoria state. Nikkei 225 (+1.3%) was the biggest gainer and reclaimed the 28k level as exporters benefitted from a softer currency, while attention turns to PM Kishida who will outline his policy program today and is reportedly planning to present an additional budget after the election. Furthermore, there were recent comments from an ally of the new PM who suggested that capital gains tax could be raised to 25% from the current 20% without affecting stock prices, although this failed to dent the mood in Tokyo and weaker than expected Household Spending was also brushed aside. The gains for the KOSPI (-0.1%) were later reversed alongside the tentative price action in index heavyweight Samsung Electronics after its Q3 prelim. results showed oper. profit likely rose to its highest in three years but missed analysts’ forecasts. Hang Seng (+0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) were mixed with the latter jubilant on reopen from the Golden Week holiday after improved Caixin Services and Composite PMI data which both returned to expansionary territory. This helped mainland stocks overlook the recent developer default fears and largest daily liquidity drain by the PBoC since October last year, although Hong Kong initially lagged amid heavy Northbound Stock Connect trade. Finally, 10yr JGBs declined on spillover selling from T-notes and with havens shunned amid the gains across riskier assets, although downside in JGBs was limited given the BoJ’s presence in the market for nearly JPY 1.5tln of JGBs with up to 10yr maturities. Top Asian News Gold Steadies Ahead of Key U.S. Jobs Report as Yields Climb Investors Fear Tax Talk in Kishida’s ‘New Japanese Capitalism’ China Coal Prices Plunge as Producers Vow to Ease Shortages China Developer Stocks Fall After Report of Monthly Sales Drop An initially contained to marginally-firmer European cash open followed an upbeat APAC handover (ex-Hang Seng) was short-lived with bourses coming under moderate pressure; Euro Stoxx 600 -0.3%. As such, major indices are all in the red, except for of the UK FTSE 100 which is essentially unchanged and bolstered by strength in heavy-weight energy and mining names given broader price action the return of China. Sectors were initially mixed at the open, but in-fitting with the action in indices, has turned to a predominantly negative performance ex-energy. Crossing to the US, futures have directionally been following European peers, but the magnitude has been more contained, with the ES unchanged as we await the September labour market report for any read across to the Fed’s policy path; however, officials have already made it clear that it would have to be a very poor report to spark a deviation from its announced intentions, where it is expected to announce an asset purchase tapering in November. Returning to Europe, Daimler (+2.5%) stands out in the individual stocks space, firmer after a broker upgrade and notable price target lift at UBS; Marks & Spencer (+1.5%) is also supported on broker action. To the downside lies Weir Group (-3.0%) after reports of a ransomware attack. Top European News Adler’s Largest Shareholder Sells Option on Stake to Vonovia; A Controversial Tycoon Sits on Adler’s $9 Billion Pile of Debt Chip Stocks Drag Tech Gauge Lower as Asian Apple Supplier Warns European Gas Rises as Bumpy Ride Continues With Cold Air Coming Lira Weakens to Fresh Low as Rising U.S. Yields Add Pressure In FX, the Dollar is trying to regroup and firm up again after its latest downturn amidst a further rebound in US Treasury yields, more pronounced curve re-steepening, and perhaps some relief that the Senate finally passed the debt ceiling extension bill, albeit by a slender margin and only delaying the issue until early December. Looking at the DXY as a benchmark, a marginally higher low above 94.000 and lower high below 94.500 is keeping the index contained as the clock ticks down to September’s jobs report that is expected to show a recovery in hiring after the prior month’s shortfall, but anecdotal data has been rather mixed to offer little clear pointers for the bias around consensus - full preview of the latest BLS release is available via the Research Suite under the Ad-hoc Economic Analysis section. From a technical perspective, near term support for the DXY resides at 94.077 (vs the current 94.139 base) and resistance sits at 94.448 (compared to a 94.338 intraday high). TRY - A double whammy for the already beleaguered Lira as oil prices come back to the boil and ‘sources’ suggest that Turkish President Erdogan’s patience is wearing thin with the latest CBRT Governor as the Bank waited until September to cut rates. Recall, Erdogan has already ousted a CBRT chief for not loosening monetary policy in his belief that lowering the cost of borrowing will bring inflation down, and although the reports have been by a senior member of his administration there is a distinct feeling of no smoke without fire in the markets as Usd/Try remains bid having only held below 9.0000 by short distance between 8.9707-8.8670 parameters. CHF/JPY - No real surprise that the low yielders and funders are underperforming, even though broadly upbeat risk sentiment during APAC hours has not rolled over to the European session. The Franc has retreated to 0.9300 vs the Buck and Yen is trying to fend off pressure on the 112.00 handle after failing to sustain momentum through 111.50 before weaker than expected Japanese household spending data overnight. However, decent option expiry interest from 111.85-75 (1.4 bn) may weigh on Usd/Jpy pending the aforementioned US payrolls outcome. AUD - Some payback for the Aussie after Thursday’s outperformance, as Aud/Usd loses a bit more momentum following its rebound beyond 0.7300 and with hefty option expiries at 0.7335 (2.7 bn) capping the upside more than smaller size at the round number (1.1 bn) cushions the downside. In commodities, WTI and Brent remain on an upward trajectory after the mid-week pullback; as it stands, crude benchmarks are near fresh highs for the week, with WTI for November eyeing USD 80/bbl once again. Fresh news flow for the complex has been sparse, aside from substantial UK press focus on the domestic energy price cap potentially set to increase next year. More broadly, US officials have largely reiterated commentary from the Energy Department provided on Thursday around not currently intending act on energy costs with a reserve release. The session ahead has just the Baker Hughes rig count specifically for crude scheduled, though the complex may well get dragged into a broader risk move depending on the initial reaction to and analysis on NFP. For metals, spot gold and silver are contained around the unchanged mark and haven’t been affected by any significant amount by the firmer USD or elevated yield space thus far. Elsewhere, base metals are buoyed by China’s return and strong Caixin data from the region, although it is worth highlighting that the likes of LME copper are well off earlier highs. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 500,000, prior 235,000 Change in Private Payrolls, est. 450,000, prior 243,000 Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 25,000, prior 37,000 Unemployment Rate, est. 5.1%, prior 5.2% Sept. Underemployment Rate, prior 8.8% Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 61.8%, prior 61.7% Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.7, prior 34.7 Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6% Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.6%, prior 4.3% 10am: Aug. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.9%, prior 2.0%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.2%, prior 1.2% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I’ve never quite understood why you’d go to the cinema if you’ve got a nice telly at home but such has been the nature of life over the last 19 months that I was giddy with excitement last night at booking tickets for James Bond at the local cinema next week. We’ve booked it on the same night as our first ever physical parents evening where I’ll maybe have the first disappointing clues that my three children aren’t going to be child prodigies and that maybe they’ll even have to settle for a career in finance! Markets have been stirred but not completely shaken this week and yesterday they continued to rebound thanks to the near-term resolution on the US debt ceiling alongside subsiding gas prices, which took the sting out of two of the most prominent risks for investors over the last couple of weeks. That provided a significant boost to risk appetite, and by the close of trade, the S&P 500 had recovered +0.83% in its 3rd consecutive move higher, which put it back to just -3.0% beneath its all-time high in early September, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 was also up +1.60% and closed before a later US sell-off. Attention will today focus squarely on the US jobs report at 13:30 London time, which is the last one before the Fed’s next decision in early November, where a potential tapering announcement is likely bar an extraordinarily poor number today, or an exogenous event in the next few weeks. Starting with the debt ceiling, yesterday saw Democratic and Republican Senators agree to pass legislation to raise the ceiling by enough to get to early December, meaning we won’t have to worry about it for another 8 whole weeks. The Senate voted 50-48 with no Republicans blocking the legislation to increase the debt limit by $480bn, with House Majority leader Hoyer saying that the House would convene on Tuesday to pass the measure as well. To raise it for a longer period, the chatter out of Washington made it clear that Democrats would need to need to raise the debt ceiling in a partisan manner as part of the reconciliation process. As we mentioned in yesterday’s edition, this extension means that a number of deadlines have now been punted into the year end, including the government funding and the debt ceiling (both now expiring the first Friday of December), just as the Democrats are also seeking to pass Biden’s economic agenda through a reconciliation bill containing much of their social proposals, alongside the $550bn bipartisan infrastructure package. And on top of that, we’ve also got the decision on whether Chair Powell will be re-nominated as Fed Chair, with the decision 4 years ago coming at the start of November. So a busy end to the year in DC. The other main story yesterday was the sizeable decline in European natural gas prices, with the benchmark future down -10.73% to post its biggest daily loss since August. Admittedly, they’re still up almost five-fold since the start of the year, but relative to their intraday peak on Wednesday they’ve now shed -37.5%. So nearly a double bear market all of a sudden! The moves follow Wednesday’s signal that Russia could supply more gas to Europe. However, even as energy prices were starting to fall back from their peak, the effects of inflation were being felt elsewhere, with the UN’s world food price index climbing to its highest level in a decade in September. Looking ahead, today’s main focus will be on the US jobs report for September later on. Last month the report significantly underwhelmed expectations, coming in at just +235k, which was well beneath the +733k consensus expectation and the slowest pace since January. That raised questions as to the state of the labour market recovery, and helped to complicate a potential decision on tapering, with nonfarm payrolls still standing over 5m beneath their pre-Covid peak. This month, our US economists are expecting a somewhat stronger +400k increase in nonfarm payrolls, which should see the unemployment rate tick down to a post-pandemic low of 5.1%. On the bright side at least, the ADP’s report of private payrolls for September on Wednesday came in at an above-forecast 568k (vs. 430k expected), while the weekly initial jobless claims out yesterday for the week through October 2 were beneath expectations at 326k (vs. 348k expected). Ahead of that, global equities posted a decent rebound across the board, with cyclicals leading the march higher on both sides of the Atlantic. As mentioned at the top, the S&P 500 advanced +0.83%, which was part of a broad-based advance that saw over 390 companies move higher on the day. That said the index was up as much as +1.5% in early US trading before slipping lower in the US afternoon. The pullback was partly due to new headlines that China’s central bank plans to continue addressing monopolistic actions in internet companies that operate in the payments sector. Nonetheless, Megacap tech stocks were among the big winners yesterday, with the FANG+ index up +2.08%, whilst the small-cap Russell 2000 index was also up +1.58%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (+1.60%) posted its strongest daily gain since July, and the broader gains helped the STOXX Banks index (+1.61%) surpass its pre-pandemic high, taking it to levels not seen since April 2019, even as sovereign bond yields moved lower. Speaking of sovereign bonds, yesterday saw a divergent set of moves once again, with yields on 10yr Treasuries up +5.2bps to 1.573%, their highest level since June, whereas those across the European continent moved lower. The US increase came against the backdrop of that debt ceiling resolution, and there was a noticeable rise in yields for Treasury bills that mature in December, which is where the debt ceiling deadline has now been kicked to. Elsewhere in North America, the Bank of Canada’s Macklem joined the global central bank chorus and noted inflation pressures were likely to be temporary, even if they’ve been more persistent than previously expected. Meanwhile over in Europe, lower inflation expectations helped yields move lower, with those on 10yr bunds (-0.3bps), OATs (-1.1bps) and BTPs (-3.6bps) all moving back. Overnight in Asia, all markets are trading in the green with the Nikkei (+2.16%) leading the way, along with CSI (+1.34%), Shanghai Composite (+0.60%), KOSPI (+0.22%) and Hang Seng (+0.04%). Chinese markets reopened after a week-long holiday so the focus will again be back on property market debt, and today the PBOC injected just 10bn Yuan with its 7-day reverse repos, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of 330bn Yuan. That comes as the services and composite PMIs did see a pickup from August level, with the services PMI up to 53.4 (vs. 49.2 expected), moving back above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. In Japan however, household spending was down -3.0% year-on-year in August (vs. -1.2% expected) which came amidst a surge in the virus there. There’s also some news on the ESG front, with finance minister Shunichi Suzuki saying that the country would introduce ESG factors when considering the finance ministry’s foreign reserves. Looking forward, S&P 500 futures (+0.06%) are pointing to a small move higher. In Germany, as talks got underway today on a potential traffic-light coalition, it was reported by DPA that CDU leader Armin Laschet had signalled his willingness to stand down, with the report citing unidentified participants from internal discussions. In televised remarks last night, Laschet said that his party needs fresh voices across the board and that new leadership will be in place soon. This moves comes as Germany’s Social Democratic Party held talks with the Greens and the Free Democratic Party to enact a new three-way ruling coalition, which would leave the CDU out of power entirely. There wasn’t a massive amount of data yesterday, though German industrial production fell by -4.0% in August (vs. -0.5% expected), which follows the much weaker than expected data on factory orders the previous day. Elsewhere, the Manheim used car index increased +5.3% in September, its first positive reading in 4 months. Our US economics team points out that there tends to be around a two month lag between wholesale prices and CPI prints, so we aren’t likely to see this impact next week’s CPI print but it will likely prevent a bigger fall towards the end of the year. To the day ahead now, and the highlight will be the aforementioned September jobs report from the US. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Panetta. Tyler Durden Fri, 10/08/2021 - 07:50.....»»

Category: smallbizSource: nytOct 8th, 2021

US futures tread water ahead of key jobs data, after debt ceiling deal boosts stocks

Stock market investors were waiting for nonfarm payrolls data, which could give the Fed the green light to start tapering asset purchases. Company earnings have consistently beaten Wall Street estimates in the second quarter. JOHANNES EISELE/Getty Images US futures struggled for direction as traders waited for the release of nonfarm payrolls data. A solid gain in September could give the Fed the green light to start cutting back its support for the economy. Stocks rose on Thursday after Democrats and Republicans agreed to extend the debt ceiling until December. See more stories on Insider's business page. US futures struggled for direction on Friday, after stocks rose sharply the previous day when Republicans and Democrats struck a deal to raise the debt ceiling into December.Investors were waiting for the monthly US nonfarm payrolls data, due Friday. Unemployment is expected to fall, boosting the chances that the Federal Reserve will start cutting back support for the economy in November.S&P 500 futures were down 0.16%, while Dow Jones futures were 0.12% lower. Futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down 0.26%.European stocks slipped, with the continent-wide Stoxx 600 down 0.46%. In Asia overnight, China's CSI 300 climbed 1.31% after reopening from a holiday, while Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.34%.Investors were cheered by the Senate deal to raise the US debt-ceiling, averting the possibility of the country defaulting on its debts. However, the extension only lasts until December, setting up another fight."Together with [Treasury Secretary] Janet Yellen, investors breathed a sigh of relief on Thursday," Chris Scicluna, head of research at Daiwa Capital Markets, said.The debt deal, along with a fall in US weekly jobless claims on Thursday, helped push up bond yields, as investors bet that an improving labor market would cause the Fed to start "tapering" its asset purchases soon.The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was up 2.5 basis points to 1.596% on Friday, its highest level since June. Yields move inversely to prices. The dollar index climbed was flat at 94.21, around its highest level in over a year.Read more: Goldman Sachs says Wall Street is dramatically underestimating the profits these 19 companies will post in 2022, but owning them now will secure their future upsideBonds and the dollar have strengthened, as investors bet that the Fed will cut back on stimulus measures, particularly the rate at which it buys bonds. Less support for the bond market should push prices down and yields up, making bonds look more attractive and boosting the dollar.Both the Fed and investors will closely watch the nonfarm payrolls figures out on Friday morning US time. Analysts expect the US economy to have added 500,000 payrolls in September, up from a lackluster 235,000 in August."The US jobs data today is anticipated to provide the final green light for the Fed to announce the taper of its asset purchases at the upcoming FOMC meeting in November," Antoine Bouvet, at Dutch bank ING, said in a note.Elsewhere, oil prices continued their seemingly relentless march upwards, as a global energy crunch rocks economies around the world. Natural gas prices have surged more than 500% in Europe and are up sharply in Asia, causing users to turn to oil as a substitute for power generation, for example.Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up 1.12% to $82.97 a barrel, while WTI crude was 1.17% higher at $79.20 a barrel.In the crypto world, bitcoin was up 2.62% to $55,601, having traded at around $41,000 just a week earlier. Bitcoin fans have delighted in the cryptocurrency's diversion from stocks, which have hit a rocky patch. JPMorgan suggested that institutional buyers are snapping up bitcoin instead of gold as inflation rises.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 8th, 2021

How BlackRock recruits - Stacey Abrams" pitch deck - "Productivity dysmorphia"

The top finance news for Oct. 8, including the latest on BlackRock's recruitment tactics and Stacey Abrams' fintech funding. Welcome to Insider Finance. If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. Plus, download Insider's app for news on the go - click here for iOS and here for Android.On the agenda today:Stacey Abrams' fintech, Now, used this pitch deck to raise $29 million.A BlackRock manager describes how recruitment has changed amid the talent wars. The woman who coined "productivity dysmorphia" shares how to deal with itLet's get started. Stacey Abrams' fintech used this pitch deck to raise funds Now Now, a fintech cofounded by politician Stacey Abrams entrepreneur Lara Hodgson, wants small businesses to "grow fearlessly" by helping them manage their invoices. Using this seven-page pitch deck, the 11-year-old fintech was able to raise $29 million in an extension of its Series A. Check out the deck here. Plus, take a look at our extensive pitch deck library here. BlackRock manager pitches her team to interviewees, not vice versa Richard Levine/Corbis via Getty Images Deepika Sharma, a director at BlackRock, explained how she's had to adjust her recruitment process as the war for talent intensifies. From seeking out candidates with diverse educational and training backgrounds to pitching her team to candidates, here's how things have changed.Family offices shower staff with perks Getty Images Family offices are competing for investment talent - and are willing to pay more for it. Demand for talent is soaring and driving compensation up, with pay for VC principals at family offices jumping 17% in one year. See what all the hype is about.Robinhood competitor Public adds crypto trading INA FASSBENDER/AFP via Getty Images As digital assets rally, Public.com will begin allowing users to trade 10 cryptocurrencies in the coming weeks. The digital assets include bitcoin, ether, dogecoin, and litecoin, among others. Here's what you need to know.Where do billionaires call home? Suhaimi Abdullah/Getty Images This year, Forbes' list of billionaires includes 2,755 people, and most of them (2,444) live in one of these 20 countries and territories.How to deal with "productivity dysmorphia" Chris Bannister Anna Codrea-Rado coined the phrase "productivity dysmorphia" to describe how she couldn't see her own professional achievements or appreciate her success - and tons of people seemed to relate. She shares what she's learned about dealing with it.Startup exchange debuts new crypto futures product Edward Smith/Getty Images The Small Exchange, backed by big names including Citadel Securities and Interactive Brokers, is launching a crypto futures product designed for small upfront cash commitments. Everything we know about the new product.On our radar:The ex-CEO of Pepsi said asking for a raise is "cringeworthy." She explains why.Bloomberg reported on the search for the billions of dollars said to be behind Tether. Read it here.The Financial Times wrote about how Larry Fink, BlackRock's founder and CEO, became the "king of Wall Street."Don't forget - we're publishing new puzzles every morning through October 8. Solve it here.Read the original article on Business Insider.....»»

Category: topSource: businessinsiderOct 8th, 2021