"Two Words... Tucker Carlson": Greg Gutfeld Gores Fox After Musk Blasts Activist Advertisers Greg Gutfeld just took a major shot at his employer, Fox News, saying what we all knew: Tucker Carlson, the highest-rated on-air host in television history, was fired due to pressure from special interest groups. While discussing Elon Musk's "fuck you" moment over advertiser attempts to blackmail the billionaire, Gutfeld joked that it would be like "extorting Jerry Nadler with salad, or blackmailing sports fans by threatening to cancel PBS." He then said that Musk was the last man standing against "the censorship-industrial complex, which is made up of government, media and tech forces." Then, Gutfeld stated what we've all suspected since it happened... "He [Musk] realizes that advertisers have no spine and can be easily cowed by special interest groups in cahoots with political allies – if you don’t believe me I got two words for ya – Tucker Carlson." Watch (h/t Modernity.news): Carlson says 'global freedom hinges on Musk and X' Meanwhile, in an interview with VC David Sacks, Tucker Carlson says he thinks that the fate of free speech hinges on X. "I'm worried about the pressure being brought to bear on X because it's the only huge international free speech platform with hundreds of millions of people," said Carlson, adding "The existence of X where anyone around the world can get for free a whole range of opinions that aren't controlled — that changes everything." Tucker Carlson Says Global Freedom Hinges on the Success of @ElonMusk & @X "I'm worried about the pressure being brought to bear on X because it's the only huge international free speech platform with hundreds of millions of people." "The existence of X where anyone around the… pic.twitter.com/WRK7tHrT9X — KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) December 2, 2023 Watch the full interview below: E155: In conversation with @TuckerCarlson (plus 25+ mins at the end breaking down the @OpenAI chaos) -- departure from Fox News -- biggest issue facing the US today: rediscovering national alignment -- why prosperity begets self-destruction -- media control -- current… pic.twitter.com/IKWQQOPl9N — The All-In Podcast (@theallinpod) December 1, 2023   Tyler Durden Sat, 12/02/2023 - 13:25.....»»

CBP Whistleblower Alleges "Problematic Practices" And "Substandard" Health Care For Migrants In Custody Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), A senior Customs and Border Protection (CBP) employee turned whistleblower is alleging years of "problematic practices" in the agency’s treatment of migrants under detention at the border. Illegal immigrants wait in along the border wall to board a bus after surrendering to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Border Patrol agents on the U.S.-Mexico border in El Paso, Texas, on May 12, 2023. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images) In a letter sent to Congress on Nov. 30 by the Government Accountability Project, an advocacy group, on behalf of Troy Hendrickson, the CBP employee detailed the alleged failures of the agency's medical contractor, Loyal Source Government Services. Mr. Hendrickson, a 15-year CBP veteran, said the actions of the medical contractor—the sole provider of medical care for people under CBP custody—were "compounded by the unwillingness of the CBP contracting office" to hold it accountable for its alleged failures and ensure oversight. According to its official website, Loyal Source Government Services is a Florida-based company focusing on government health care, technical and support services, engineering, and travel health care. The letter to Congress states that Mr. Hendrickson was assigned to work with the CBP Office of the Chief Medical Officer (OCMO) as a Contracting Officer Representative, beginning in August of 2021. During this time, he "immediately raised concerns internally regarding problematic practices he witnessed, including unfit medical providers, severe understaffing, privacy breaches, and a failure to report sexual harassment in a CBP medical facility," according to the letter. The negligence, according to Mr. Hendrickson, resulted in "substandard" health care for migrants held in CBP custody. "Mr. Hendrickson’s complaints, made with the support of OCMO leadership, went largely ignored and unaddressed by the CBP Office of Acquisition, the entity with authority to hold Loyal Source to the terms of the Medical Services Contract," the letter said. "Despite his multiple requests over several months to take corrective action, such as issuing mandated performance appraisals and sending a remedial notice known as a 'cure letter' instructing Loyal Source to fix their performance problems, the Contracting Office consistently refused to hold the contractor accountable," the letter stated. Whistleblower Suffered Retaliation Mr. Hendrickson further states that officials from CBP retaliated against him for raising the alleged problems by removing him from his position and preventing him from working on any future CBP medical contracts. Nearly a year after Mr. Hendrickson allegedly raised his concerns, in May 2023, eight-year-old Anadith Reyes Alvarez, a Panamanian girl with sickle cell anemia and congenital heart disease, died at a CBP facility in Harlingen, Texas, after being detained by border officials. An independent report later found that the young girl's death could have been prevented and that she was denied repeated requests for care. Mr. Hendrickson’s letter said the young girl's death was due to "avoidable medical negligence" by Loyal Source Personnel. The whistleblower is urging Congress to ensure thorough and prompt oversight of Loyal Source's alleged ongoing failures to comply with mandated medical care of migrants in CBP custody. He is also calling for increased oversight into the CBP contracting office’s "gross mismanagement, gross waste of taxpayer dollars, and abuse of authority in its refusal to hold Loyal Source accountable for the company’s contract performance failures." Congress must also ensure that Mr. Hendrickson and any other current or former CBP or Loyal Source employees who turn whistleblower are not subjected to retaliation, the letter stated. "Today we and our client, Mr. Troy Hendrickson, demand accountability for the years of dangerous underperformance of the CBP medical contractor and the alarming lack of oversight of CBP’s critical mandate to provide medical services to noncitizens in the agency’s custody," Government Accountability Project Immigration Counsel Andrea Meza said in a statement. Texas Army National Guard look on as illegal immigrants board a bus after surrendering to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Border Patrol agents for immigration and asylum claim processing following the end of Title 42 on the U.S.-Mexico border in El Paso, Texas, on May 12, 2023. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images) Medical Contractor Received 'Millions' of Taxpayer Dollars "The CBP Office of Chief Medical Officer and the Medical Services Contract were created in direct response to an ongoing pattern of deaths of children in CBP custody. It is unconscionable that when the contractor, receiving millions of taxpayer dollars, failed to meet OCMO’s medical standards, contracting officials refused at every turn to hold the contractor to account and instead retaliated against Mr. Hendrickson," Ms. Meza continued. Loyal Source Government Services received a $25 million-per-month contract from the CBP, according to The Washington Post. "Mr. Hendrickson has been sounding the alarm within CBP and to multiple oversight entities for years, and had his warnings been heeded, Anadith Reyes Alvarez might be alive today. It is long past time for Congress and federal oversight entities to take action so that no other family will suffer the loss of their child due to medical negligence in CBP custody," the letter concluded. Responding to the letter, a CBP spokesperson told Forbes that the agency "takes its obligations to investigate whistleblower allegations seriously," and "remains committed to ensuring that contract oversight—and the procurement process writ large—are conducted correctly." The spokesperson added that the health and safety of migrants in CBP custody is "a top priority" and that the agency has taken a number of "significant steps" to improve care and decrease the amount of time migrants spend in CBP custody, including via new leadership into the Office of the Chief Medical Officer. Elsewhere, U.S. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said in a Nov. 30 statement that the whistleblower’s allegations raise "serious concerns." "These systemic failures to conduct proper oversight of its contractor severely impacted the quality of medical care available to individuals in CBP’s custody, endangering vulnerable migrants such as Anadith Danay Reyes Álvarez," the lawmaker said. The Democrat vowed to investigate the issue further and take steps as needed to better "protect migrants in government custody." The Epoch Times has contacted Loyal Source Government Services for further comment. Tyler Durden Sat, 12/02/2023 - 14:00.....»»

Trump Claims 'Cheating' In Wisconsin Election Case: 'Republicans Must Do Something' Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), Former President Donald Trump arrives at Trump Tower the day after FBI agents raided his Mar-a-Lago Palm Beach home, in New York City, on Aug. 9, 2022. (David 'Dee' Delgado/Reuters) Former President Donald Trump issued a response after the Wisconsin State Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a case targeting state election maps. Last week, Democrats urged the Wisconsin Supreme Court to overturn Republican-drawn legislative maps. The lawsuit was first brought by voters the day after the court flipped to what some say is a majority 4-3 liberal control in August. They want all 132 state lawmakers to stand for election under new, more favorable maps in 2024. The state Legislature's district maps were first drawn under former Republican Gov. Scott Walker, allowing the GOP to keep their majority in both chambers of the state Legislature. Earlier this week, the former president offered criticism of the challenge, condemning the Wisconsin Supreme Court for taking up the challenge. He also shared a Wall Street Journal editorial that raised questions about the timing of the lawsuit after Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz, who was backed by the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, started serving. “Tremendous cheating going on in a State that I love, Wisconsin. Republicans must do something to stop it!” President Trump said in a Truth Social post. The Wall Street Journal article, meanwhile, wrote that Democrats fought to get Judge Protasiewicz elected earlier this year so "she could help them retake control of the state Legislature through a rewrite of the state’s political maps. Now the court’s liberal majority is going through contortions to deliver on that anti-democratic judicial promissory note," describing the scenario as a "looming judicial coup." The fight comes ahead of the 2024 election in a battleground state where four of the six past presidential elections have been decided by fewer than 23,000 votes, and Republicans have built large majorities in the legislature under maps they drew over a decade ago. President Trump won Wisconsin in the 2016 vote, while the state was certified in favor of President Joe Biden in 2020. Analysts have said it remains a key battleground state in 2024, coming after Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) won his reelection bid last year. Motives Last week, Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley most aggressively questioned the motives of Democrats and repeatedly referenced newly elected Judge Protasiewicz saying during her campaign that the current maps are “rigged.” “Everybody knows that the reason we’re here is because there was a change in the membership of the court,” Judge Bradley said. She said ordering elections for all 132 lawmakers, including half of the Senate midway through their current terms, was “absolutely extraordinary.” “I can’t imagine something less democratic than unseating most of the Legislature that was duly elected last year,” she added. During a candidate forum last year, Judge Protasiewicz said that the legislative "maps are rigged, bottom line. Absolutely, positively rigged. They do not reflect the people in this state." “They do not reflect accurate representation, neither the state Assembly or the state Senate. They are rigged, period. Coming right out and saying that. I don’t think you could sell to any reasonable person that the maps are fair,” Judge Protasiewicz continued. Attorney Mark Gaber, from the Campaign Legal Center, said the timing of the lawsuit had nothing to do with the election result. He said the challenge over whether the districts are unconstitutionally not contiguous would have been filed, regardless of the makeup of the court. “I don’t see that as a partisan issue,” Mr. Gaber said. Taylor Meehan, attorney for the Republican-controlled Wisconsin Legislature, said the lawsuit was meritless, brought too late, and that Democrats only filed it because control of the court flipped. “They are a wolf in sheep’s clothing designed to backdoor a political statewide remedy,” Mr. Meehan said. Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz attends her first hearing as a justice, in Madison, Wis., on Sept. 7, 2023. (Morry Gash/AP) Due to her comments on the "rigged" maps, Republicans in the Legislature have publicly floated impeaching the judge if she didn't recuse herself from the case and other redistricting cases. On Tuesday, a judge dismissed a left-wing group's lawsuit that claimed a panel researching the possible impeachment of the judge violated the state's laws. Dane County Circuit Judge Frank Remington ruled that the group, American Oversight, filed its lawsuit too early, coming after Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos asked former state Supreme Court justices in September to advise on whether it's legal to impeach the justice. The legal fight in Wisconsin comes after the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the state of Alabama's bid to use a Republican-drawn congressional map. Months before that, the top U.S. court issued a ruling against the state that argued Alabama violated the Voting Rights Act, although Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall, a Republican, said the court erred in its decision. "It is now clear that none of the maps proposed by Republican supermajorities had any chance of success. Treating voters as individuals would not do. Instead, our elected representatives and our voters must apparently be reduced to skin color alone," he said at the time. The Associated Press contributed to this report. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/01/2023 - 18:00.....»»

You Thought Murder Hornets Were Bad? The "Super Pig" Invasion Looms Fans of fearmongering classics such as "murder hornets" , "monkey pox" and "take this experimental vaccine or you'll kill grandma" will love this one... According to new reports, a population of badass "super pigs" is about to descend on North America from Canada, prompting northern US states such as Montana, Minnesota and North Dakota to take measures against the invasion. The wild pigs, currently roaming Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, are often crossbreeds that combine the survival skills of wild Eurasian boars with the size and fertility of domestic swine to create so-called "super pigs" that one expert called "the most invasive animal on the planet," and "an ecological train wreck," according to CBS News. Via Reddit user /u/Kalicoa What caused this? According to the report, Canadian farmers just cut pigs loose after the market collapsed in 2001. The pigs persevered - with the strong surviving harsh Canadian winters, and the weak dying off. The result was highly destructive packs of pigs are roaming around, eating anything - including crops and wildlife. They tear up land when they root for bugs and crops. They can spread devastating diseases to hog farms like African swine fever. And they reproduce quickly. A sow can have six piglets in a litter and raise two litters in a year. That means 65% or more of a wild pig population could be killed every year and it will still increase, Brook said. Hunting just makes the problem worse, he said. The success rate for hunters is only about 2% to 3% and several states have banned hunting because it makes the pigs more wary and nocturnal — tougher to track down and eradicate. Wild pigs already cause around $2.5 billion in damage to U.S. crops every year, mostly in southern states like Texas. And they can be aggressive toward humans. A woman in Texas was killed by wild pigs in 2019. -CBS News Feral pigs already in the United States have caused some $100 million in property damage in Texas, where lawmakers have authorized hot air balloon hunts to eradicate the porcine menace. Feral pigs roam near a Mertzon, Texas, ranch on Feb. 18, 2009. Ryan Brook, a professor at the University of Saskatchewan and one of Canada's leading authorities on the problem, has documented 62,000 wild pig sightings in Canada, and have seen them on both sides of the Canada-North Dakota border. "Nobody should be surprised when pigs start walking across that border if they haven't already," said Brook. "The question is: What will be done about it?" "The only path forward is you have to be really aggressive and you have to use all the tools in the toolbox," Brook said. Murdalize em! Options for eradication include guns, traps such as the "BoarBuster," and nets fired from helicopters. Looks like bacon is on the menu, boys! Tyler Durden Fri, 12/01/2023 - 18:20.....»»

The Urgency Of Strengthening America’s Electric Grid Cybersecurity Authored by Paul Steidler via RealClear Wire, The U.S. electric grid continues to face a bevy of foreign and domestic cyberattack threats. Therefore, it makes more sense than ever before for utilities and transmission operators to aggressively fortify their cyber defenses. In fact, failure to do so is a classic case of being penny wise and pound foolish.  The evidence includes the following:  On November 16, following two days of cybersecurity scenario testing by more than 250 organizations, Manny Cancel, Senior Vice President of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) said, “The threat landscape in which we are operating is unprecedented – we are facing challenges that are increasingly difficult to detect and protect against.” NERC added that evolving cyber threats to the grid are “guided by geopolitical events, new vulnerabilities, changes in technologies, and increasingly bold cyber criminals and hackers.” China, Russia, and other countries continue to impose cybersecurity threats to the U.S. electric grid, as discussed in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s Annual Threat Assessment. Cybersecurity insurance premiums continue to rise sharply, making preventative actions more compelling from a cost-benefit standpoint.  The shift to renewable energy and distributed resources opens additional vulnerabilities for electric utilities. As Bruce Walker, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Alliance for Critical Infrastructure Security said in July 18 Congressional testimony, “Importantly, the risk associated with cyber is exacerbated by the rapid transformational changes happening in the electric sector. The transition away from a centralized generation and command and control model to a decentralized model, has increased the surface area for cyber penetration.   The grid’s Operational Technology (OT) vulnerabilities are particularly notable. OT refers to the remote monitoring and control of components in the electric system. This encompasses supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and industrial control systems (ICS) networks.  An October 2022 U.S. Department of Energy study found, “Another industry trend is increased attacker experimentation and exploitation targeting OT systems.”  The U.S. Government Accountability Office has issued a similar warning: “Grid distribution systems – which carry electricity from transmission systems to consumers – have grown more vulnerable, in part because their operational technology increasingly allows remote access and connections to business networks.” One way to simplify critical infrastructure protection and keep OT secure is to place a device that only allows pre-defined, legitimate signals to be sent to the OT on a network. This reduces the costs of more holistic network changes. It also prevents non-specific commands from passing through a protected device.  One such system, Binary Armor, places an in-line barrier to cyber intrusion, while monitoring all communications to a piece of OT. The device is small, approximately five by three inches, and weighs less than a pound. It can be deployed throughout the distribution grid, including on main substation data lines and within substations.  Legitimate commands can pass through. Those that would cause the device to behave in dangerous, destructive ways are thwarted.  Binary Amor cannot be modified or reconfigured without physical access to the system, thereby providing robust security for remote facilities and critical infrastructure. The system allows the system operator to define the rules for SCADA/ICS traffic and to inspect every byte of information.  The scope of threats that the U.S. electric grid will continue to face are likely to rise in complexity and severity. Rather than waiting for dictates from regulators, utilities and transmission grid operators should identify important areas for cybersecurity protection, especially where there are efficient, cost-effective solutions. In this environment, OT protection is especially important and likely to be even more so soon.  This article was originally published by RealClearEnergy and made available via RealClearWire. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/01/2023 - 18:40.....»»

Why Are Searches For 'Trailer Park Near Me' Erupting?  The eruption in Google searches for "RV lot near me" has hit a five-year high. The reason for the surge remains unclear but could be attributed to the worsening housing affordability crisis ushered in by the failure of 'Bidenomics.' Earlier this year, we noticed in several RV Industry Association's industry reports (read here) that new monthly shipments for "Park Model RVs," otherwise known as trailers, were outpacing last year's levels. None of this comes as a surprise, as the worst housing affordability crisis in a generation has killed the 'American Dream' for many folks.  The most vocal folks complaining about the era of unaffordability of everything have been Gen-Zers on the Chinese social media platform TikTok. These youngsters are experiencing voter regret after a president who could be their great-great-great grandfather pushed failed policies that have been nothing more than a financial disaster for them.  Millennials crying about life, rent, groceries. "and all we do, we record a video and post it on social media. Then we close up the app and go about our day." Do you have sympathy for their situation? Or do you want to tell them, "try voting differently next time." I sort of… pic.twitter.com/KEZ3rjxdxw — Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) October 12, 2023 They're also mad about owning nothing:  "The thing about being in Gen Z is that, generally, we quite literally own nothing," PJ Yancey told Bussiness Insider. He said, "We're not homeowners; we don't own a ranch, a vacation home, any kind of property at all. If we're living on our own, it's in someone else's house or apartment." So, the kid went out into the desert in California and bought a $200 plot of land.  @peejstead I love my dirt #offroad #crazy ♬ 3 Stars - Jair Archive The lesson youngsters need to learn is the government and central bank are responsible for your financial woes. And the search data plus mobile home industry data only confirms that Gen-Zer's standard of living has quickly deteriorated. Welcome to third-world style living.  Tyler Durden Fri, 12/01/2023 - 19:00.....»»

Hezbollah Rejoins Fight, Lebanese Civilians Killed, After Gaza Truce Ended The resumption of fighting between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip after the truce ended Friday morning has quickly translated into rocket and artillery fire in Israel's north, where emergency sirens have sent residents running for shelter across several towns.  Hezbollah, which over the past week has respected the Hamas truce during which time it by and large silenced its weapons, has rejoined the conflict. Already there have been deaths in Lebanon after Israel responded by shelling the town of Hula. Hezbollah-affiliated television channel al-Manar said that a mother and her son were killed in the attack. ⚡️Anti tank missile fire from Lebanon targets Israeli occupation site, filmed from Kiryat Shmona pic.twitter.com/uaVuXsTeHp — War Monitor (@WarMonitors) December 1, 2023 Previously in the day Al Jazeera reported that "Hezbollah claimed a strike on Israeli soldiers in the first cross-border attack on Israel since the resumption of the fighting in Gaza." Last weekend, the government of Iraq warned that if the Gaza ceasefire doesn't become permanent, there's a strong chance the conflict turns into broader regional war. The Pentagon has forces on high alert at US bases in Syrian and Iraq. Prior the truce of last Friday, American bases in the region had come under some 60 or more total drone and rocket attacks. The US responded with airstrikes several times against 'Iran-backed militias'.  Whether these attacks will start up again is a big question the West will be watching closely. The Biden administration has repeatedly threatened to strike against Iran-linked targets and assets if Americans come under threat. Below: Israeli artillery shelling parts of southern Lebanon As for Hezbollah, despite that before the truce there were daily attacks on southern Israel, its role has been limited thus far after eight weeks of conflict. Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has previously stated that the group's intent is to keep Israeli forces bogged down enough in the north to where the IDF can't focus its entire arsenal and tanks on the Gaza theatre.  But a big fear in Tel Aviv and Washington remains the possibility that Hezbollah could launch a full war. Its rockets and manpower are considered much bigger than that of Hamas, and a scenario like the 2006 war is something Israeli military leaders likely hope to avoid. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/01/2023 - 17:40.....»»

Powell Comments Send Everything Soaring, Gold Hits All Time High, Dollar Plummets As Market Prices In Rate Cuts After November's furious meltup, which saw the S&P rise by 9% (the Nasdaq was up an even more ludicrous 11%), which was the best November for the stock market since 1980... ... all eyes were on Jerome Powell today to see if the Fed chair would say something to stem the surging stock market tide following the month which saw the biggest easing in financial conditions on record, equivalent to nearly 4 rate cuts. We got the answer shortly after 11am ET, when after what seemed to be otherwise balanced remarks with a dose of hawkish comments... "It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have  achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when  policy might ease. We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so." ... offset by some clearly dovish statements... "The strong actions we have taken have moved our policy rate well into restrictive territory, meaning that tight monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. Monetary policy is thought to affect economic conditions with a lag, and the full effects of our tightening have likely not yet been felt." ... and generally sounding rather optimistic while answering student questions, saying that the US is on the path to 2% inflation without large job losses - i.e., a soft landing - which helped the market to convince itself that Powell had just given the green light for a continued market meltup (thanks to the blackout period, there will be no more Fed comments until the Dec 13 FOMC) as Bloomberg put it... "Powell points to how the Fed’s past tightening moves will continue to have an impact on the economy -- the full impact hasn’t been felt yet. If anybody thought the Fed wasn’t finished raising rates, his prepared remarks today sure put a fork in it. They are done." .... and what happened next was a violent repricing in easing odds, with March rate cut odds hitting a lifetime high of 80%, effectively doubling overnight and up from 10% just 5 days ago... ... which then immediately cascaded across assets and sent everything exploding higher, led by stocks which surged above 4,600 for the first time since the July FOMC (aka the "final rate hike")... ... and one look below the surface reveals that this was indeed the QE trade: the Nasdaq barely rose while meme stonks and most shorted names exploded higher. And yet, this eruption in the most shorted/hated names means that hedge funds actually had a catastrophic day: and indeed, looking at the HF VIP (most long) less most shorted basket pair trade we see a whopping 5% drop as many hedge funds were stopped out and margin called. Putting today's plunge in contact, this was the worst day for hedge funds since June 2021 and the second worst day since the covid crash! Next, looking at the bond market, here too everything jumped but especially 2-Year TSYs, whose yields tumbled a whopping 12bps to 4.56%... ... and on course for the biggest weekly slide since the regional banking crisis in March, down almost 40bps. Yet neither stocks, nor bonds, had quite as much fun as either "digital gold", with Bitcoin briefly hitting a fresh 2023 high, briefly surging to $39,000 before easing back with Ether rising to $2100 ... ... but the biggest winner by far from today's market conclusion that a renewed dollar destruction is on deck, was gold which briefly rose above its all time high of $2,075... ... and that's just the start: now that a new record is in the history books, a frenzy of gold calls was bought, both for futures and the biggest ETF tied to the metal, and as shown in the chart below, the buildup of open interest between $2,000 and $2,500 has been relentless over the past week on growing optimism that rates are primed to decline. Next up for gold? $2500 or higher. Yet not everyone had a great day: the dollar predictably tumbled, extending it losses for a third straight week, the longest streak since June, and comes after the dollar saw its worst month in a year this November. One dollar pair trade where the convexity is especially high is USDJPY, which after soaring for much of the past year suddenly finds itself in a Wile E Coyote moment, trading just below the 100DMA. Should the selling persist, we may see the pair quickly tumble down to 140, or lower. To be sure, not all the moves made sense: as Bloomberg noted, bonds have a better reason to rally than stocks, which have to factor in the growth concerns that underpin Powell’s remarks. Evidence is gathering that the economy is slowing and stocks will have to reconcile that with their bullish rate views. Today’s ISM Manufacturing data is case in point that the stagflationary slowing that started in October — and Bloomberg Economics says it’s observing typical early signs of recession — extended last month. The ISM commentary was generally downbeat, equally split between companies hiring and others reducing their labor forces "a first since such comments have been tracked" according to Bloomberg. But it gets worse: the latest update to the Atlanta GDPNOW tracker slipped to 1.2% from 1.8% yesterday and over 2% just last week. And after diverging for much of the year, all three regional Feds that do GDP nowcasts have converged on 2% -  a far cry from the "5.2%" GDP print the Biden department of seasonal adjustments goalseeked last month. Bottom line: the onus is now on the payrolls report next week to further guide markets into next year. The continued rise in ongoing jobless claims pose a risk that unemployment could rise further. But so far, this isn’t a consensus view, with economists projecting the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 3.9% (and more see a 3.8% rate than 4%). And while that may only add more fuel to the rate-cut speculation, at some point the softening in economic data will have to be squared with its impact on profits. As a reminder, while much of the interval between the last rate hike and the first rate cut is favorable for risk assets, the weeks right before the cut usually send stocks anywhere between 10% and 30% lower as the market realizes just why the Fed is panicking. However, judging by today's action, we still have some time before that particular rude awakening kicks in. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/01/2023 - 16:07.....»»

Back To 2-And-A-Half Wars? Authored by John Mills via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), A plaque of the Department of Defense seal is seen at the Pentagon in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 26, 2012. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images) Commentary An overarching tenet for decades in the American national security planning environment was the ability for the U.S. military to simultaneously conduct two-and-a-half major regional conflicts (MRCs). Translated, this meant that the United States had the military size to generate and project military force for a major conflict in the European area, a major conflict in the Asian area, and a smaller “brushfire” conflict somewhere else. Going back 30 years, the 1993 “Bottom Up Review” was the seminal Department of Defense planning document that defined the beginning of the pivot away from this classic Cold War viewpoint to a new, post-Soviet era one. The budget process descended into decades of arguing that to pay for new systems, force structure had to be diminished. The flip side of the argument was that peacekeeping requirements (Bosnia, Rwanda, etc.), as well as the massive increase in deployment cycles brought on by the War on Terror, prevented the diminishment of the number of military units. This led to an unsolvable impasse on the topic. New systems had a bill that could only be paid by cutting units and military personnel. Units and military personnel couldn’t be cut because of the demands of the deployment cycle. And now the world seems to have descended into a real situation of two-and-a-half conflicts without seeking permission from the force structure planning community. China Threat Re-awakening This National Security Imperative The war in Ukraine drags on, but with some momentum perceptible as Ukrainian forces appear to have established a firm beachhead across the Dnipro River in a drive toward Crimea. After decades of relative peace, now the Middle East is inflamed as Israel strikes into the Gaza Strip to destroy Hamas terrorists while holding additional Iranian-backed proxies in southern Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, and Houthi missile fire from Yemen in check. Meanwhile, there's the specter of even greater conflict in the possibility of strategic strikes as Iran threatens Israel (and America). In the two-and-a-half MRC calculus, it’s not clear whether these contagions are the “two-and-a-half,” or even possibly the “two-and-a-half-plus,” of the retro MRC worldview. Hamas and the Houthis are proxies for Iran; Iran is a proxy for China. Russia, mired in the death and destruction it created, is a proxy for China. In December 2021, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met virtually, weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, and agreed to a “no limits” partnership to topple American leadership of the world system. Tensions in the Pacific have increased as China has greatly elevated its military exercises—demonstrations toward Taiwan and the Philippines. The Fiscal Year 2023 National Defense Authorization Act and related appropriations greatly increased American military spending while making numerous declarative statements of support for Taiwan, which has significantly displeased China. Air Force and Navy in the Lead With the upward trajectory of the American defense budget and the existence of an ongoing or building two-and-a-half-plus MRC world whether we like it or not, the question is, what force structure strategy and policy should be in effect? The common outcome of the national security budget debate is what’s called “salami slicing,” where all military services and requirements take equal cuts or equal plus-ups. This is often the normalcy of the defense debate within and between the executive and legislative branches of the U.S. government. With the surging two-and-a-half-plus MRC world, intuitive priorities come to the forefront. The American border should be the first priority, and, beyond that, capabilities and force structure that can project deterrence and, if necessary, war-winning capabilities should receive the highest priorities for a unified joint operational concept. These are more resident in air, naval, space, cyber, and special operations domains, with a special emphasis on artificial intelligence-enabled autonomous systems. The Army and Marines will have a key role in the burgeoning two-and-a-half-plus MRC world, and they need to find where they create the best value as “supporting” services to the primary “supported” services who should be in the lead. The Army has made bold moves toward this in its multi-domain doctrine development, which emphasizes long-range fires, rejuvenated air and missile defense capabilities, and a return to strong operational experience and capabilities in maritime and amphibious operations. The Army and the Marine Corps have similar interests and should work closely together in partnership to develop a larger and more capable maritime transport capability of smaller vessels that complement the Navy’s larger amphibious warfare ship structure and robust special operations capabilities. The Army should retain a world-class armored force capability but ensure it's postured for maximum ability to be in the right place at the right time. The rest of the conventional “Big” Army may have to shrink somewhat to ensure the priorities are properly resourced. Countering Unrestricted Warfare The Chinese Communist Party is achieving some success in its worldwide campaign of unrestricted warfare to include civil-military fusion, Belt and Road influence operations, and pernicious and deadly adjuncts such as fentanyl production in northern Mexico that is introduced into American society on a broad scale in an “Opium War” initiative to destabilize American society. This implies that the American solution must be whole-of-government and inclusive of key strategic partners. The historic challenges of military recruiting and retention need to be addressed in an open and honest dialogue that addresses all core causal factors that can no longer be dismissed. Even the U.S. Coast Guard is achieving a striking inability to deploy ships: It has the budget and equipment, but it doesn’t have the personnel—an extremely perplexing inverse of the world they have lived in for years. The two-and-a-half MRC world is only growing, and the best response is to build the right capabilities to deter the developing storm as fast as possible. Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/01/2023 - 16:20.....»»

Chrysler Building's EU Co-Owner Goes Bankrupt  Europe may be experiencing its most significant real estate meltdown since the global financial crisis. The abrupt ending of easy monetary policies and soaring interest rates have led the property and retail conglomerate Signa Holding GmbH to declare bankruptcy following its inability to secure funding.  Bloomberg reports that Signa, also the co-owner of New York's Chrysler building, has assets upwards of $25 billion as of the end of 2022. It filed for insolvency in Vienna on Wednesday.  "Despite considerable efforts in recent weeks, the necessary liquidity for an out-of-court restructuring could not be sufficiently secured," the company said. Signa's current debt load totaled around $5.5 billion, according to creditor representative KSV1870. There are over 273 creditors impacted by the proceedings.  "From today's standpoint, it's impossible to predict whether further companies of the Signa Group will file for insolvency and whether it will lead to a domino-effect," said Karl-Heinz Götze, the head of insolvencies at the group. Austrian tycoon Rene Benko heads Signa, which has commercial real estate properties across Europe and is a co-owner of New York's Chrysler building.  Austrian chancellor Karl Nehammer played down the collapse of Signa. He said, "What's really important is that all those who invested here, especially the banks, stay stable."  Earlier this week, analysts at Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International, one of Signa's top creditors, warned that the fallout might spark further CRE turmoil if properties must be offloaded.  "The aim is to continue business operations within the framework of self-administration," Signa said. Bloomberg sources said Signa has been 'frantically' searching for $650 million in short-term liquidity, reaching out to Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund and Elliott Investment Management, among others.  The crash of Signa comes as global central banks have likely concluded the most aggressive interest rate tightening cycle in a generation to tame hot inflation. Fed swaps show interest rate cuts are forecasted to begin as early as May.  Furthermore, we don't need to expand on the CRE crisis as readers are well-informed about the rumblings this year. We leave you with a recent interview featuring Goldman's Allison Nathan and Scott Rechler, Chairman and CEO of RXR Realty.  Rechler told Nathan that the crisis in the CRE space was just beginning. Recall in March, when several regional banks imploded, we noted "Why Small Banks Are In Big Trouble: As Hedge Funds Pile Into The New "Big Short," The Next' Credit Event' Emerges."  So what are the contagion risks with the implosion of Signa?  Tyler Durden Fri, 12/01/2023 - 16:40.....»»

Our National Bankruptcy: Moral, Economic, And Political Authored by Mark Hendrickson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The National Debt Clock in Washington on Nov. 13, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times) Commentary Last month I got a call from a friend who works in Congress. He was distressed by the absurd condition of the federal finances. How could the wealthiest country in the world be almost $34 trillion in debt while charging ahead into ever-deeper debt? It seems like a horror movie come to life. Congress is gridlocked with the spigot of federal spending seemingly locked permanently into the wide-open position. The conversation with my friend touched on three points: how did this untenable situation come about, how can we reverse course, and what model of government would protect us from endless debt? How Did We Get Into This Untenable Predicament? What has brought the federal government of the United States of America to the edge of a fiscal abyss? It boils down to two main factors: the perverse incentives of electoral democracy accompanied by a gradual moral decay. The fundamental underlying cause of our catastrophic debt is a decay of morality. Over the decades, the traditional American respect for the sanctity of private property has eroded and diminished. Under the influence of progressive and socialist ideas and other sophistries, the American people came to believe that they were entitled to receive benefits that others would be made to pay for. This is the self-destructive nature of democracy. By popular demand as expressed at the ballot box, voluntary exchange and charity have been progressively replaced by compulsory government-mandated transfers of wealth (transfers of wealth that would be considered theft if done by non-government actors). In a democracy, politicians seeking elective office always need more votes. They have found that they can buy votes, not with their own money, but with money from the federal treasury, by conferring ever-larger benefits on ever-more beneficiaries. The political incentive is for Congress and presidents to spend, spend, spend. And since voters hate taxes, another political incentive is to not antagonize voters by raising taxes. Running up the national debt is the inevitable outcome of these incentives. Government over-spending is the Achilles’ heel of democracy. In words often attributed to Alexander Fraser Tytler, “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship ..." Twentieth-century American economist Howard Kershner put it less eloquently: “When a self-governing people confer upon their government the power to take from some and give to others, the process will not stop until the last bone of the last taxpayer is picked bare.” How Can We Pull Out of This Fiscal Tailspin? The short answer is: We can’t. Theoretically, it would be possible if a majority of voting Americans recognized the dangers inherent in national bankruptcy and elected presidents and a Congress that would undo the vast web of wealth-transfer programs, but this isn’t realistic. Few voters are willing to relinquish the particular government programs that benefit them, and so dismantling the welfare state voluntarily is a non-starter. Instead, the most likely scenario is to continue on our present self-destructive course until the point in time when there won’t be enough suckers who believe in “the full faith and credit of the federal government” to buy its debt, and the Federal Reserve is forced to create additional trillions of dollars, thereby torpedoing the purchasing power of the people and precipitating an economic cataclysm causing massive social upheaval and a likely political revolution. A Blueprint for a Fiscally Responsible Government Yes, and it's a blueprint sitting in plain sight. It's our Constitution. The Constitution enumerates a relatively small number of functions that the federal government is to perform. There's no explicit authorization in the Constitution for the federal government to get involved in directing, influencing, or managing such areas of our economy as agriculture, housing, health care, energy, education, transportation, retirement, etc. It's clear from the writings of the founding generation that they never expected the federal government to extend into the economic affairs of citizens. Thomas Jefferson (letter to Albert Gallatin, 1817): “Congress has not unlimited powers to provide for the general welfare, but only those specifically enumerated." Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, John Marshall (McCulloch v. Maryland, 1819): "This government is acknowledged by all, to be one of enumerated powers." James Jackson (member of the First Congress): “We must confine ourselves to the powers described in the Constitution, and the moment we pass it, we take an arbitrary stride towards a despotic Government." What happened to our founders’ vision of limited government? Again, the moral decay of “We, the people” bears the primary responsibility. President John Adams hit the nail on the head: “Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.” What President Adams understood is crucial. Any constitution—even one that expresses the most noble ideals and enlightened ideas—is little more than a piece of worthless paper if the people don’t value it enough to accept its authority and lack the commitment to consistently accept, uphold, and defend its strictures and rules. We need a blueprint like our original constitution. But more than that, we need a moral revival so that we can again live as free people under a federal government limited to the task of defending our lives, liberty, and property. Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times of ZeroHedge. ZeroPointNow Fri, 12/01/2023 - 17:00.....»»

Israel Pounds Southern Gaza As Officials Say "Long War" Expected For A Year Or More.....»»

Powell Live Webcast Round 2: Fed Chair Holds Roundtable Discussion Update (2:00pm ET): Having sparked a furious rally in risk assets earlier with what the market interpreted as dovish comments, which doubled the odds of a March rate hike overnight to 80% from 40% on Thursday and which sent the price of gold to all time highs, the Fed chair is back for round two: at 2pm ET, Powell and Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook are participating in a roundtable discussion to hear from local leaders in the tech innovation and entrepreneurship community during visit to Spelman College. While it is unclear if he will make comments on monetary policy, let's see if Powell manages to spark another buying frenzy... or if this time he will actually be hawkish. Watch live below.   * * * Update (11:00am ET): Powell's prepared remarks are out and, as expected, they lean on the hawkish side. Here are the highlights: *FED'S POWELL: PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON WHEN POLICY MAY EASE *POWELL: FED PREPARED TO TIGHTEN MORE IF IT BECOMES APPROPRIATE *POWELL: FOMC MOVING CAREFULLY AS RISKS BECOMING MORE BALANCED *POWELL: FED POLICY RATE IS 'WELL INTO RESTRICTIVE TERRITORY' The bottom line, Powell is a mix of hawkish and dovish, On one hand, he leans hawkish: "It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have  achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when  policy might ease. We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so." But on the other, he counters dovishly: "The strong actions we have taken have moved our policy rate well into restrictive territory, meaning that tight monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. Monetary policy is thought to affect economic conditions with a lag, and the full effects of our tightening have likely not yet been felt." Or as Bloomberg notes: "Powell points to how the Fed’s past tightening moves will continue to have an impact on the economy -- the full impact hasn’t been felt yet. If anybody thought the Fed wasn’t finished raising rates, his prepared remarks today sure put a fork in it. They are done." And adds: “Powell’s prepared remarks sounded pretty balanced to us -- perhaps not as hawkish as some have feared. The market seems to latch on to one or two phrases from speeches and not take speeches in totality. The Q&A portion may be more market-driving than the modest market reaction we’ve seen since the release of the prepared remarks.” The only outstanding question is when do cuts begin now (we and Bill Ackman said March). * * * Here are Powell 's full prepared remarks: Thank you, President Gayle, and thank you for the invitation to visit today. I am fortunate to have been accompanied from Washington by a very distinguished graduate of Spelman College, Class of 1986 and member of Delta Sigma Theta, my Federal Reserve colleague Governor Lisa Cook. There is no greater testament to Spelman's historic legacy than the achievements of outstanding women like Governor Cook. One part of that legacy is Spelman's tradition of promoting education in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics). Governor Cook's research highlights the key role of such education in preparing individuals to be inventors and innovators who can generate ideas that will add to our body of knowledge, increase productivity, and generate higher living standards.1 Her work is just one example of how Spelman women continue to make historic contributions in science, the arts, technology, medicine, and other fields. I look forward to our conversation, and I thought I might frame it by talking about the Federal Reserve's actions to promote a healthy economy, and how those actions relate to questions students in this audience may be asking about the future. For example, I am sure that students are wondering what kind of a job market and economy you will be entering when you complete your education. Congress assigned the Fed the dual mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability. Both goals are essential aspects of a healthy economy. Congress also gave the Fed a precious grant of independence from direct political control to allow us to pursue those goals without consideration of political matters. Other major central banks in democratic societies have similar grants of independence, and this institutional arrangement has a strong track record of producing better policy outcomes for the benefit of the public. To begin with our maximum employment goal, I am glad to say that, by many measures, conditions in the labor market are very strong. A couple of years ago, as the pandemic receded and the economy reopened, the number of job openings grew to greatly exceed the supply of people available to work, leaving a widespread shortage of workers. Today, labor market conditions remain very strong, and the economy is returning to a better balance between the demand for and supply of workers. The pace at which the economy is creating new jobs remains strong, and has been slowing toward a more sustainable level. That gradual slowing has come in part due to the efforts of the Fed to slow the growth of the economy to help reduce inflation. After declining sharply during the pandemic, the supply of workers has bounced back, as people have come back into the labor force and as immigration has returned to pre-pandemic levels. Partly because of that labor force growth, the unemployment rate has edged up over the second half of the year, though it remains historically low at 3.9 percent. The increase in participation has been particularly strong among women in the prime working ages of 25 to 54, which surged to an all-time high earlier this year, and which remains well above pre-pandemic levels. Wage growth remains high but has been gradually moving toward levels that would be more consistent with 2 percent price inflation over time, and real wages are growing again as inflation declines. As for price stability, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has a longer-run goal of 2 percent inflation.2 After running below 2 percent for over a decade, inflation increased sharply in 2021, in the United States and in many other countries around the world. High inflation imposes a significant hardship on all households and is especially painful for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. Beginning in early 2022, we reacted forcefully, raising our policy interest rate and decreasing the size of our balance sheet to help slow the economy and bring down inflation. Inflation has declined to 3 percent over the 12 months ending in October, but after factoring out energy and food prices, which tend to be volatile, what we call "core" inflation is still 3.5 percent, well above our 2 percent objective. Over the six months ending in October, core inflation ran at an annual rate of 2.5 percent, and while the lower inflation readings of the past few months are welcome, that progress must continue if we are to reach our 2 percent objective. High inflation initially emerged from a collision between very strong demand and pandemic-constrained supply. The normalization of supply and demand conditions has played a critical role in the disinflation so far, as has the substantial tightening of monetary policy and overall financial conditions over the past two years.3 The strong actions we have taken have moved our policy rate well into restrictive territory, meaning that tight monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. Monetary policy is thought to affect economic conditions with a lag, and the full effects of our tightening have likely not yet been felt. The forcefulness of our response to inflation also helped maintain the Fed's hard-won credibility, ensuring that the public's expectations of future inflation remain well-anchored. Having come so far so quickly, the FOMC is moving forward carefully, as the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced.4 As the demand- and supply-related effects of the pandemic continue to unwind, uncertainty about the outlook for the economy is unusually elevated. Like most forecasters, my colleagues and I anticipate that growth in spending and output will slow over the next year, as the effects of the pandemic and the reopening fade and as restrictive monetary policy weighs on aggregate demand.5 The FOMC is strongly committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent over time, and to keeping policy restrictive until we are confident that inflation is on a path to that objective. It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease. We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so. We are making decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks. That is an overview of what my colleagues and I at the Fed are trying to accomplish. The bottom line, if you are a student, is that we have made considerable progress in reducing high inflation while maintaining a strong labor market, with a lot of opportunity for new graduates. The unemployment rate has risen a bit, but it is still very low by historical standards, and by many measures it is a great time to start your career. You will face challenging decisions soon about what professions to enter, and what companies and institutions to work for. Some of you will become entrepreneurs. You have already made one really good decision, and that is coming to Spelman. Whatever opportunities and challenges emerge, education will continue to be a key to success. Higher education is an investment, and not just of money. You are investing your time and great effort to gain knowledge and skills that are preparing you for successful careers. Your success will make for a stronger economy. For our part, at the Fed we are doing our best to foster an economy that gives you the best opportunity to succeed. With that, I will hand it back to you, President Gayle. * *  * As noted earlier, November was a scorching blockbuster month for markets after a run of three fairly weak ones, which has led to a big turnaround in some of the YTD numbers for 2023. In fact, it was the best month for global bonds since December 2008, the best month for US bonds since May 1985, as well as the strongest month for the S&P 500 this year and the second best November for US stocks since 1980 (only the insane 2020 was better). There is a reason for that: as the chart below shows, November saws the biggest easing in financial conditions in history. This is how Goldman's Tony Pasquariello described the action: Beneath the hood, it was a clean sweep, and of significant magnitude: stocks up, rates down, dollar weaker, credit tighter.   While there’s always a chicken-or-egg dynamic here -- and, perhaps the Fed chair will temper some of this impulse -- the fact is this: the markets have moved a lot, and they have done so in a way that is supportive of US growth. To put a line under the piece of the FCI equation that is comprised by equities, November was a ripper by any measure.   To illustrate the point: S&P was up in 16 of 21 trading days and had its best month of the year (to say nothing of -- ahem -- the 11% rally in NDX). In many ways, it was one of those rolls where what could have gone right ... mostly went right.   Ok that was November, what now? Well, according to DB's Jim Reid, whether the trends of November continue into year-end will in part depend on Powell’s speech later today, or rather two speechs, which take place just before the FOMC blackout (ahead of the Dec 13 FOMC statement). According to Reid, "market moves have been so great since he suggested that tight financial conditions were doing some of the Fed's job for them (November 1st) that you have to think he will address the subsequent moves and either push back or endorse." On balance the DB strategist thinks he may take a similar tone to Williams yesterday and push back a little while acknowledging the progress that has seemingly been made. Source: AI, ForexLive On that theme, NY Fed President Williams' remarks yesterday helped the month end on a soggier tone, especially for bonds. He said he expects “it will be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance for quite some time to fully restore balance and to bring inflation back to our 2% longer-run goal on a sustained basis .” Separately, San Francisco President Daly said that “I’m not thinking about rate cuts at all right now”. So going back to Powell's not one but two appearances today, first, at 11am ET, the Fed Chair is scheduled to sit down for a fireside chat with Helene D. Gayle, the president of Spelman College in Atlanta, in which they address the challenges of our post-COVID economy. Then, three hours later, at 2pm ET, Powell and Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will participate in roundtable to hear from local leaders in the tech innovation and entrepreneurship community during visit to Spelman College. It is less likely that he will discuss monetary policy here although one never knows what questions may be lobbed his way. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/01/2023 - 14:05.....»»

Powell, You Have A Problem: Gold Hits All Time High As Markets Price In Rate Cuts As Soon As March Ahead of the looming Fed blackout period - which lasts until the Dec 13 FOMC meeting - Powell had once last chance to tame euphoric markets after the best November in the past 40 years... and he blew it. Instead of pushing forcefully against the meltup in risk assets after the biggest easing in financial conditions on record during November... ... the Fed chair appeared largely nonchallant, and in his fireside chat earlier today, what the market focused on was Powell's comment that rates are "well into restrictive territory" which not only assured there would be no more rate hikes, but steamrolled Powell's other, hawkish warning, that it is premature to speculate when the Fed might ease. The result was a collapse in yields, a surge in stocks, bitcoin spiking to new 2023 highs above $38,000, all driven by renewed bets that the Fed will cut rates as soon as March where the market now assigns odds of a rate cut as high as 80%, roughly double from yesterday. And while it is unclear if it was Powell's intention to give markets the green light to keep rallying into year-end, a problem has emerged, the same problem that emerges every time the market views the Fed as willing to sacrifice the dollar to prop up risk assets: gold. After surging from a ytd low of $1820 in early October, to a high of $2,040 last week, largely thanks to a relentless gold buying spree out of China as we reported previously, gold has finally realized which way the wind is blowing and as shown below, it exploded higher amid a frenzy of institutional, ETF and retail buying (and perhaps continued Chinese buying), all of which managed to finally push the yellow metal to hit new all time highs of $2,075.41, the highest on record. That's just the start. As Bloomberg notes, gold calls were also in strong demand, both for futures and the biggest ETF tied to the metal, as bullion marched closer to a record high Friday. As shown in the chart below, the  buildup of open interest between $2,000 and $2,500 has been relentless over the past week on growing optimism that rates are primed to decline: That, alongside continued Chinese buying, and perhaps a reversal in ETF selling now that gold is clearly breaking out to new all time highs, means that the Fed has a new "old" problem on its hands: wholesale flight from fiat and into the safety of hard currencies, such as gold. No wonder "digital gold", aka bitcoin, is also surging... although that one still has a ways to go to reach its previous all time high. Then again, if the Fed is indeed set to cut rates as soon as March, and then proceed with more QE which will be inevitable to monetize the soaring US budget deficit and exploding interest payments, then we are set for new all time highs in everything - gold, bitcoin, stocks... oh and oil; because after the current bout of CTA selling is finally over, oil and commodities will be the next asset class to hit record highs at which point Powell's mutation into Arthur Burns will be complete, confidence in the Fed will be crushed as the next - and far sharper inflation cycle kicks in - and the countdown to the end of the Dollar reserve currency system can finally begin. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/01/2023 - 14:07.....»»

Politics Is Never Having To Say You're Sorry: Mayorkas Refuses To Apologize To Del Rio Agents Authored by Jonathan Turley, Over two years later, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas finally held a private meeting with the Border Patrol agents that he threw under the bus after they were falsely accused of whipping Haitain migrants near Del Rio, Texas. There was reportedly no apology from Mayorkas. We have discussed how Mayorkas was warned that the allegations were false, but still denounced them. Mayorkas failed to protect the agents even after the President promised that they would be punished before any investigation. Mayorkas joined the chorus of critics in condemning the agents as an example of “systemic racism” in the government. The media went into a frenzy despite a videotape showing that the story was clearly false. A photographer captured the scene, which showed agents using bridle reins to guide their skittish horses. The entire videotape clearly shows the agents using the reins on their mounts, not on the migrants. Not only did the photographer quickly deny seeing any officers whip migrants, the videotape clearly refuted that allegation. However, for many in politics and the media it did not matter because it played into a racial-justice claim of the “whipping (of) Haitian asylum seekers.” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) condemned “the inappropriate use of what appear to be whips by Border Patrol officers on horseback to intimidate migrants.” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) decried “images of inhumane treatment of Haitian migrants by Border Patrol — including the use of whips.”  Vice President Kamala Harris emoted on “The View” about how the brutality “invoked images of some of the worst moments of our history, where that kind of behavior has been used against the Indigenous people of our country, it has been used against African Americans during times of slavery.” Reps. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) described the incident as “worse than what we witnessed in slavery” and “white supremacist behavior.” President Biden rushed to express his own revulsion and rage, too: “It was horrible what — to see, as you saw — to see people treated like they did: horses nearly running them over and people being strapped. It’s outrageous. I promise you, those people will pay.” At the time, some of us objected that the president had, once again, declared the guilt of accused persons without evidence or investigation. The possible innocence of these officers simply did not matter to the president or to many in the press. Now, with the passage of time, some of us had hoped that Mayorkas would apologize to the agents even if President Biden has refused to do so. He didn’t. The agents after all were just props used by the media and politicians. They do not have families or careers that need to be considered.  They whipped migrants on the water’s edge because the media and politicians needed them to be whipping migrants. Yet, Mayorkas wanted to convey his love for the agents in finally meeting with the men that he previously portrayed as Bull Connor’s on horseback. Fortunately, the global staff of investigative reporters at Res Ipsa was able to find a video of the Secretary meeting with the agents: Tyler Durden Fri, 12/01/2023 - 14:15.....»»

Blackstone's Flagship BREIT Gates Redemption Requests For 13 Consecutive Months Blackstone has limited investor redemption requests from its $64 billion commercial real estate trust for high-net wealth investors for the thirteenth consecutive month. However, the good news: the "backlog is easing," according to Bloomberg.  According to a shareholder letter, Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (BREIT) recorded investor outflows of $1.8 billion in November. The fund fulfilled 67% of its requests, and demand redemptions fell to the lowest since September 2022.  BREIT limits redemptions to 2% of net asset value monthly and 5% quarterly to curb sudden runs. This process of gating investors has been ongoing for 13 months due to surging fears of high interest rates and deteriorating conditions for commercial real estate markets.  Recall:  Blackstone Urges Investment Advisors To 'Keep Clients Calm' As It Limits Redemptions Of Commercial REIT The fund is heavily invested in housing, such as multi-family and student housing, as well as industrial properties and data centers.  Most of the properties are located in the southern and western portions of the US.  Fund performance has been dampened by deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, only delivering 2.3% this year through October for high-net wealth investors. Last year, it delivered 8.4% in 2022. And since its inception, it has routinely delivered 11.3% annual returns.  The good news, as explained by a Blackstone spokesperson: Investors who requested to pull their money out of the fund two months ago have received "nearly all" their money back.  Tyler Durden Fri, 12/01/2023 - 14:35.....»»

Latin America On Edge As Venezuela"s Maduro Holds Referendum Whether To Invade Oil-Rich Neighbor Guyana.....»»

New Video Reveals McDonald's Secret Spinoff Restaurant Called "CosMc's"  McDonald's has maintained a high level of secrecy about its new spinoff restaurant chain called "CosMc's." This small-format concept restaurant was first announced in July with very few details. However, fast-food-obsessed internet sleuths have revealed they found a CosMc's under construction in Illinois.  TikToker snackolator, who posts only about junk food, recently shared a video showcasing what seems to be the construction of one of the first CosMc's stores in Bolingbrook, Illinois. "The kind of conventional thinking is that this is going to be something of a competitor to like Starbucks, where it's going to focus on the McCafe stuff and the coffee and the drinks as opposed to serving burgers and fries, which makes even more sense when you realize that this CosMc's is being built directly next to an existing McDonald's," snackolator said, who was quoted by Bussiness Insider.  Here's the video: @snackolator I have no idea what CosMc's will serve, but I'm very excited to find out what McDonald's has up their sleeve for this new concept. Are you excited for this new chain? What are you hoping they have? #mcdonalds #mcdonaldslife #mcds #cosmc #cosmcs #fastfood #mccafe #fastfoodlife #macdonalds #newfastfood ♬ original sound - snackolator   The name for the new brand comes from CosMc's, an intergalactic character in McDonald's advertisements in the 1980s and 90s.  In July, McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski told investors on a second-quarter earnings call that the new restaurant is a "small format concept with all the DNA of McDonald's, but with its own unique personality."  The move for a CosMc spinoff restaurant comes as the fast-food giant has had huge success in driving sales with the revival of another McDonald's mascot, Grimace.  McDonald's revival of advertisement characters from decades ago appears to be a great non-woke ad strategy. Remember, the company scrubbed "ESG" from its website months ago.  Tyler Durden Fri, 12/01/2023 - 15:15.....»»

Floating Down De Nile: Goldman Declares Hunter Biden Laptop May Be A Fake Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org, As Stuart Smiley said on SNL’s Daily Affirmation, “De Nile ain’t just a river in Egypt.” Democrat Rep. Dan Goldman, a member of the House Weaponization of Government committee, caused yet another firestorm of controversy in declaring that the Hunter laptop may be a fake. That’s right. Despite media, American intelligence, and even other Democrats acknowledging the authenticity of the laptop, Goldman is still spreading denials . . . at a hearing on the weaponization of disinformation policies. Goldman has previously been criticized for making the case against President Joe Biden in disastrous efforts to discredit whistleblowers. As in past hearings, the Democrats opposed witnesses who tried to detail the growing evidence of a government-directed censorship system. Members like Delegate Stacey Plaskett (D-Virgin Islands) continued to deny that there was any evidence of such censorship after spending years opposing the investigation of the program. Even with thousands of pages of evidence and a federal judge finding an “Orwellian” censorship system, Plaskett and her colleagues simply denied that such evidence exists. However, it was Goldman who stole the show in an exchange with  journalist Michael Shellenberger. Shellenberger referenced the suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop story before the election, a decision that Twitter and other companies now admit was wrong. Democrat Rep. Dan Goldman — a delusional conspiracy theorist — says "there's actual evidence" that Hunter Biden's laptop was "manipulated" by Russia (but can't provide any any said "evidence"). pic.twitter.com/Lcn5cksgmy — RNC Research (@RNCResearch) November 30, 2023 However, truth has never been a particularly appealing option for politicians, particularly when it must come with an acknowledgment of past culpability in spreading disinformation. Recently, we discussed how Leon Panetta also doubled down recently on the claim that the laptop may still be Russian disinformation. Goldman also opted for denial and distraction over honesty and transparency. He told Shellenberger: “You’ve talked about the Hunter Biden laptop, and how the FBI knew it existed. You are aware, of course, that the laptop, so to speak, … that was published in the New York Post, was actually a hard drive that the New York Post admitted here was not authenticated as real…It was not the laptop the FBI had. You’re aware of that right?” Shellenberger responded: “It was the same contents.” Goldman shot back: “How do you know? You would have to authenticate it to know it was the same contents.” Shellenger responded: “Are you suggesting the New York Post participated in a conspiracy to construct the contents of the Hunter Biden laptop?” Goldman: “No, sir, the problem is that hard drives can be manipulated by Rudy Giuliani or Russia.” Shellengberger: “But what’s the evidence that that happened?” Goldman: “Well, there is actual evidence of it. But the point is, it’s not the same thing.” Goldman then concluded with the bizarre claim that “I’m glad you agree with me, Mr. Shellenberger, that transparency is the most important thing.” Goldman has yet to produce the “actual evidence” that the hard drives were changed by Giuliani or Russia. Before the election, many of us noted that the files on the laptop were easily authenticated and were confirmed by the other parties involved in some of these exchanges.  Since then the most damaging emails and messages have been authenticated and are not being denied by the Bidens. There is of course a term for such conspiracy theories used by Democrats to justify censorship: disinformation. Indeed, the Biden Administration is seeking the censorship of true information deemed “malinformation.” As someone raised in a liberal, politically active Democratic family in Chicago, it is distressing to see the party continue the push for censorship and blacklisting. However, the effort to deny the authenticity of these emails is particularly chilling. The transfers of millions to the Biden family and related meetings have now been confirmed by witnesses, including some questioned by Goldman. The fact that Goldman used a hearing on the weaponization of disinformation policies to spread disinformation is crushingly ironic. This is why floating down “de Nile” remains one of the most treacherous paths in the world. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/01/2023 - 15:35.....»»

Watch: Boat Full Of Suspected Migrants Invades Malibu Beach A panga boat full of suspected migrants landed on the beach in Malibu, California earlier this week, after which a group of people can be seen exiting the vessel and trudging across the sand, according to video sent to Fox News' Bill Melugin by a resident. Screenshot Melugin notes that "Malibu is 100+ miles away from the border," and that it's "Unclear if anyone caught." Watch: EXCLUSIVE: Video from a contact in Malibu shows a panga boat full of suspected illegal immigrants landing on a beach near his home this week. Incredibly rare to see this so far north, as Malibu is 100+ miles away from the border. Unclear if anyone caught, awaiting a CBP response. pic.twitter.com/n9tIIAaHSh — Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) December 1, 2023 The incident happened the same week that LA media reported a sunken panga boat found off the same area on Wednesday, prompting an investigation from federal authorities. The US Coast Guard was alerted to the 25-foot-long vessel at around 7:30 a.m. Wednesday, and found a debris field with life jackets and gas cans, but no people. On Sunday, surfers at Black’s Beach in San Diego County walk past a boat believed to have been used in a human smuggling incident. (Nelvin C. Cepeda / San Diego Union-Tribune) In March, eight people died after two suspected human smuggling boats capsized near Black's Beach in San Diego. Tyler Durden Fri, 12/01/2023 - 15:50.....»»